week ending Aug 20

 Fed sees interest rate hikes continuing until inflation eases substantially, minutes show -- Federal Reserve officials at their July meeting indicated they likely would not consider pulling back on interest rate hikes until inflation came down substantially, according to minutes from the session released Wednesday. During a meeting in which the central bank approved a 0.75 percentage point rate hike, policymakers expressed resolve to bring down inflation that is running well above the Fed's desired 2% level. They did not provide specific guidance for future increases and said they would be watching data closely before making that decision. Market pricing is for a half-point rate hike at the September meeting, though that remains a close call. Meeting participants noted that the 2.25%-2.50% range for the federal funds rate was around the "neutral" level that is neither supportive nor restrictive on activity. Some officials said a restrictive stance likely will be appropriate, indicating more rate hikes to come. "With inflation remaining well above the Committee's objective, participants judged that moving to a restrictive stance of policy was required to meet the Committee's legislative mandate to promote maximum employment and price stability," the minutes said. The document also reflected the idea that once the Fed gets comfortable with its policy stance and sees it having an impact on inflation, it could start to take its foot off the policy brake. That notion has helped push stocks into a strong summer rally. "Participants judged that, as the stance of monetary policy tightened further, it likely would become appropriate at some point to slow the pace of policy rate increases while assessing the effects of cumulative policy adjustments on economic activity and inflation," the minutes said. However, the summary also stated that some participants said "it likely would be appropriate to maintain that level for some time to ensure that inflation was firmly on a path back to 2 percent." Officials noted that future rate decisions would be based on incoming data. But they also said there were few signs that inflation was abating, and the minutes repeatedly stressed the Fed's resolve to bring down inflation. They further noted that it likely would "take some time" before policy kicked in enough to have a meaningful impact.

 Federal Reserve Officials See Inflation Staying ‘Uncomfortably High’ - The New York Times -Federal Reserve officials viewed their efforts to tame inflation as beginning to have an effect, according to the minutes of their meeting in July, but they also remained committed to further raising interest rates as prices stay too high for comfort. Fed policymakers in recent months have become increasingly aggressive in their efforts to curb inflation, which this spring hit a four-decade high. In June, the central bank raised its benchmark interest rate three-quarters of a percentage point, the largest increase since 1994. They followed that up with another, equally large rate increase last month. It is a near certainty that the Fed will raise rates again when central bank officials next meet Sept. 20-21. The question is by how much. Another three-quarter-point increase would be a strong indication that policymakers are determined not to relax their efforts until they see clear evidence that inflation has slowed. A half-point increase, though still large by historical standards, would suggest that the Fed believes it can ease up, if only slightly. “Further rate hikes are clearly in the cards,” said Michael Gapen, chief U.S. economist for Bank of America. Another strong jobs report, he said, could lead to another three-quarter-point increase. But if that doesn’t happen, a smaller increase is more likely. Minutes from the Fed’s July meeting, which were released Wednesday, suggest the decision will depend on economic data released in the coming weeks, including reports on inflation and jobs. . “Participants concurred that the pace of policy rate increases and the extent of future policy tightening would depend on the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook and risks to the outlook,” the minutes said. But as of their July meeting, policymakers continued to express concern about rapid price increases. “Participants agreed that there was little evidence to date that inflation pressures were subsiding,” according to the minutes. “They judged that inflation would respond to monetary policy tightening and the associated moderation in economic activity with a delay and would likely stay uncomfortably high for some time.” As a result, Fed officials said they remained committed to moving to a “restrictive stance of policy” — meaning raising rates high enough that they meaningfully slow the economy. In a news conference after its July meeting, Jerome H. Powell, the Fed chair, characterized the three-quarter-point increases as “unusually large” and said the decision on whether to continue them would depend on incoming economic data. That led some investors to conclude that policymakers were likely to ease the pace of rate increases, especially after the government reported that inflation had slowed more than expected in July. But in speeches and interviews after the meeting, Fed officials pushed back against the idea of a Fed “pivot” on inflation. In an interview with The New York Times this month, Neel Kashkari, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, said that he was surprised by markets’ interpretation and that policymakers were still “a long way away” from winning their fight against inflation. The central bank often uses the minutes of past meetings to communicate its thinking, and investors on Wednesday were watching closely for signals of how the Fed might act. But policymakers provided few clear clues. They said it would be appropriate to slow the rate of rate increases “at some point,” but gave no indication as to when. Seth Carpenter, chief economist at Morgan Stanley, said the minutes were “pretty two-handed,” neither committing to another supersize rate increase nor ruling one out.

Fed officials offer mixed signals on size of September rate hike -U.S. central bankers offered divergent signals over the size of the next interest rate hike, with St. Louis's James Bullard urging another 75-basis-point move while Kansas City's Esther George struck a more cautious tone. Bullard, who is one of the most hawkish policymakers at the U.S. central bank, told The Wall Street Journal in an interview published Thursday that he favored going big again, arguing "we should continue to move expeditiously to a level of the policy rate that will put significant downward pressure on inflation." "I don't really see why you want to drag out interest rate increases into next year," he said. The Fed in July raised the target range for its benchmark rate by three-quarters of a percentage point to 2.25% to 2.5%, following a similar-sized hike in June to cool the hottest inflation in 40 years. Officials have since signaled that either 50, or another 75 basis points, were on the table for their Sept. 20-21 meeting, depending on the data. They get fresh monthly readings on inflation and employment between now and then. Investors have not been put off by the threat of higher Fed rates. The S&P 500 index of U.S. stocks has risen about 9% since the July gathering. Both Bullard and George are voters this year on the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee. But George, who hosts the Fed's annual policy retreat next week in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, has sounded more dovish than Bullard in recent months, after many years of being viewed as a hawk. She backed the July hike but dissented in June in favor of a smaller half-point increase, citing concern the larger move could stoke policy uncertainty. Her remarks Thursday continued to tilt dovish. "I think the case for continuing to raise rates remains strong. The question of how fast that has to happen is something my colleagues and I will continue to debate, but I think the direction is pretty clear," she said in Independence, Missouri. "We have done a lot, and I think we have to be very mindful that our policy decisions often operate on a lag. We have to watch carefully how that's coming through." George also noted that the Fed was shrinking its $8.9 trillion balance sheet while raising rates, which would also help to restrain the economy. The pace of decline steps up next month to an annual pace of around $1 trillion. Policymakers saw the federal funds rate reaching a range of 3.25% to 3.5% this year, according to the median estimate of their June projections. The forecasts will be updated in September when the Fed next meets. Earlier on Thursday, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly told CNN International that she was open to raising rates by 50 or 75 basis points next month and that officials would be in no hurry to reverse course next year. That pushes back against investor bets that the Fed will cut rates before the end of 2023. In separate remarks, Minneapolis Fed chief Neel Kashkari said that "we have an inflation problem right now," and that the central bank has to get it down "urgently." Neither Daly nor Kashkari vote on Fed policy this year. The officials spoke a day after the release of minutes from the July Fed policy meeting, which showed officials judged it would eventually be appropriate to slow the pace of interest rate increases, with some advocating the Fed keep them at elevated levels for some time after increases concluded. Fed officials who have spoken since the July meeting have pushed back against any perception that they'd be pivoting away from tightening anytime soon. They've made it clear that curbing the hottest inflation in four decades is their top priority.

Goldman sees a 'feasible but difficult path' for the Fed to defeat inflation without a recession - The Federal Reserve's path to bringing down runaway inflation while keeping the economy from slipping into a major downturn is still open but is getting narrower, according to Goldman Sachs. As the central bank looks to keep raising interest rates, the economy is teeming with mixed signals: rapidly rising payroll figures against sharply declining housing numbers, falling gasoline prices vs. surging shelter and food costs, and low consumer sentiment against steady spending numbers. Amid it all, the Fed is trying to strike a balance between slowing things down, but not by too much. On that score, Goldman economists think there have been clear wins, some losses and a landscape ahead that poses substantial challenges. "Our broad conclusion is that there is a feasible but difficult path to a soft landing, though several factors beyond the Fed's control can ease or complicate that path and raise or lower the odds of success," Goldman economist David Mericle said in a client note Sunday. One of the biggest inflation drivers has been outsized growth that has created imbalances between supply and demand. The Fed is using interest rate increases to try to damp down demand so supply can catch up, and supply chain pressures, as measured by a New York Fed index, are at their lowest since January 2021. So on that score, Mericle said the Fed's efforts have "gone well." He said the rate increases — totaling 2.25 percentage points since March — have "achieved a much-need deceleration" regarding growth and specifically demand. In fact, Goldman expects GDP to grow at just a 1% pace over the next four quarters, and that's coming off consecutive declines of 1.6% and 0.9%. Though most economists expect that the National Bureau of Economic Research will not declare the U.S. in recession for the first half of the year, the slow-growth path makes the Fed's balancing act more difficult. On a similar count, Mericle said the Fed's moves have helped narrow the supply-demand gap in the labor market, where there are still nearly two job openings for every available worker. That effort "has a long way to go," he wrote. However, the biggest problem remains stubbornly high inflation.

So You Think We’re In a Recession as of Beginning August (Part II) - by Menzie Chinn -Follow up to “So you think we’re in a recession as of beginning August”…and rejoinder to those who believe we’ve already been in recession for a while.

• Figure 1: Lewis-Mertens-Stock Weekly Economic Index (blue), OECD Weekly Tracker (tan), Baumeister-Leiva-Leon-Sims Weekly Economic Conditions Index for US (green). Source: NY Fed via FRED, OECD, WECI. The WEI reading for the week ending 8/6 of 3.2 is interpretable as a y/y quarter growth of 3.2% if the 3.2 reading were to persist for an entire quarter. The OECD Weekly Tracker reading of 1.9 is interpretable as a y/y growth rate of 1.9% for year ending 8/6. The Baumeister et al. reading of 2.1% for the week ending 6/25 is interpreted as a 2.1% growth rate in excess of long term trend growth rate. Average growth of US GDP over the 2000-19 period is about 2%.
• Figure 2: Lewis-Mertens-Stock Weekly Economic Index (blue), OECD Weekly Tracker (tan), Baumeister-Leiva-Leon-Sims Weekly Economic Conditions Index for US plus 2% trend (green). Source: NY Fed via FRED, OECD, WECI, and author’s calculations. The summary is that the WEI (10 components) indicates continued strong growth through 8/6. The OECD Weekly Tracker, based on Google Trends and machine learning, suggests a slowdown in May-July 2022 (but no negative readings). Baumeister et al. WECI (based on 25 indicators) after adding in a trend shows a similar pattern to the WEI (comparison is shown in appendix to Baumeister et al.) How did these series interpret the developments during the last recession (Unadjusted WECI shown below).
• Figure 3: Lewis-Mertens-Stock Weekly Economic Index (blue), OECD Weekly Tracker (tan), Baumeister-Leiva-Leon-Sims Weekly Economic Conditions Index for US (green). NBER defined recession dates shaded gray. Source: NY Fed via FRED, OECD, WECI, NBER. The foregoing suggests that as of 8/6, the US is not in a contracting state, as summarized by various underlying macro indicators.

Four High Frequency Indicators for the Economy - These indicators are mostly for travel and entertainment. The TSA is providing daily travel numbers. This data is as of August 14th. This data shows the 7-day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Light Blue), 2020 (Black), 2021 (Blue) and 2022 (Red). The dashed line is the percent of 2019 for the seven-day average. The 7-day average is down 9.9% from the same day in 2019 (90.1% of 2019). (Dashed line) Air travel - as a percent of 2019 - has been moving sideways over the last several months, off about 10% from 2019 - with some ups and downs, usually related to the timing of holidays. This data shows domestic box office for each week and the median for the years 2016 through 2019 (dashed light blue). Black is 2020, Blue is 2021 and Red is 2022. The data is from BoxOfficeMojo through August 11th. Movie ticket sales were at $136 million last week, down about 39% from the median for the week. This graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four-week average. The red line is for 2022, black is 2020, blue is the median, and dashed light blue is for 2021. Dashed purple is 2019 (STR is comparing to a strong year for hotels). This data is through August 6th. The occupancy rate was down 5.7% compared to the same week in 2019. The 4-week average of the occupancy rate is below the median rate for the previous 20 years (Blue). This graph, based on weekly data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), shows gasoline supplied compared to the same week of 2019. As of August 5th, gasoline supplied was down 5.5% compared to the same week in 2019.Recently gasoline supplied has been running somewhat below 2019 levels.

 Western sanctions are good for Moscow – US economist - The economic war unleashed by the West against Russia has backfired and may bring the country much good, former Wall Street financier Michael Hudson has told the German news outlet Junge Welt.“The West's sanctions are great for Russia. Any country threatened by US sanctions is forced to become self-sufficient,” Hudson said in an interview published on Saturday.He said that sanctions have effectively pushed Russia toward import-substitution, and the country is on track to becoming completely free of reliance on Western goods. “Instead of importing German cars, Russia is turning to China to develop its own automotive industry. Russia is now moving very quickly to replace its dependence on the West for manufactured goods with its own domestic production. The only things they can't produce are Walt Disney movies and Italian handbags,” the economist said, adding that while Russia is unlikely to be able to mass produce some of the luxury items it used to import, its economy will become largely self-sufficient.Hudson also noted that sanctions, while aimed at reducing Russia’s profits from energy exports, instead “brought additional revenue to the Russian state budget.”“Russia is the big beneficiary of Germany’s energy embargo plans. The less gas Russia sells, the more money it makes,” he stated, referring to the skyrocketing energy prices that grow in correlation with the drop in Russia’s exports.Sanctions targeting the Russian economy have also failed to destabilize the national currency, the ruble, and have sped up the de-dollarization process, the analyst said.“Even before the war in Ukraine there were efforts to de-dollarize [yet] no one expected the process to start so quickly… But […] Washington has frozen all accounts in dollars and euros, so Russia had to get out of the dollar system. And this is what helped the Russian ruble. The intention behind the Western sanctions was to collapse the ruble in order to make Russian imports more expensive…Instead, the Russian government countered and decided: If we are not paid in euros and dollars for oil, gas, titanium and aluminum, the West will have to pay in rubles. And so the ruble has appreciated in value. It is fair to say that the West has shot itself in the foot.”Hudson noted, however, that “the biggest beneficiary” of Russia having been laden with sanctions is Washington. This is because Europe, which is heavily reliant on Russian energy, is faced with simultaneous energy and food crises, thus leaving it with little ability to pay attention to other matters. “Basically, Washington doesn't care if Russia wins the war [in Ukraine], because the US has succeeded in eliminating its competition in Europe, especially Germany.”

Diplomat says Russia warned US of ‘points of no return’ in bilateral relations - Russia has warned the US about the points of no return, after which a rupture of diplomatic relations is possible, Alexander Darchiev, director of the Russian Foreign Ministry's North American Department, told TASS in an interview.The diplomat was asked whether the possibility of lowering diplomatic relations between Moscow and Washington was being considered. "I would not like to go into hypothetical speculation about what is possible and what is not possible in the current turbulent situation, when Westerners led by the United States have trampled on international law and absolute taboos in diplomatic practice," Darchiev said."In this context, I would like to mention the legislative initiative currently being discussed in Congress to declare Russia a 'country sponsor of terrorism'. If passed, it would mean that Washington would have to cross the point of no return, with the most serious collateral damage to bilateral diplomatic relations, up to their lowering or even breaking them off. The US side has been warned," the head of the Foreign Ministry department stressed.

Nuclear War Would Cause a Global Famine and Kill Billions - More than 5 billion people would die of hunger following a full-scale nuclear war between the U.S. and Russia, according to a global study led by Rutgers climate scientists that estimates post-conflict crop production. "The data tell us one thing: We must prevent a nuclear war from ever happening," said Alan Robock, a Distinguished Professor of climate science in the Department of Environmental Sciences at Rutgers Universityand co-author of the study. Lili Xia, an assistant research professor in the Department of Environmental Sciences at Rutgers,is lead author of the study published in the journal Nature Food. Building on past research, Xia, Robock and their colleagues worked to calculate how much Sun-blocking soot would enter the atmosphere from firestorms that would be ignited by the detonation of nuclear weapons. Researchers calculated soot dispersal from six war scenarios -- five smaller India-Pakistan wars and a large U.S.-Russia war -- based on the size of each country's nuclear arsenal. These data then were entered into the Community Earth System Model, a climate forecasting tool supported by the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). The NCAR Community Land Model made it possible to estimate productivity of major crops (maize, rice, spring wheat and soybean) on a country-by-country basis. The researchers also examined projected changes to livestock pasture and in global marine fisheries. Under even the smallest nuclear scenario, a localized war between India and Pakistan, global average caloric production decreased 7 percent within five years of the conflict. In the largest war scenario tested -- a full-scale U.S.-Russia nuclear conflict -- global average caloric production decreased by about 90 percent three to four years after the fighting. Crop declines would be the most severe in the mid-high latitude nations, including major exporting countries such as Russia and the U.S., which could trigger export restrictions and cause severe disruptions in import-dependent countries in Africa and the Middle East. These changes would induce a catastrophic disruption of global food markets, the researchers conclude. Even a 7 percent global decline in crop yield would exceed the largest anomaly ever recorded since the beginning of Food and Agricultural Organization observational records in 1961. Under the largest war scenario, more than 75 percent of the planet would be starving within two years. Researchers considered whether using crops fed to livestock as human food or reducing food waste could offset caloric losses in a war's immediate aftermath, but the savings were minimal under the large injection scenarios. "Future work will bring even more granularity to the crop models," Xia said. "For instance, the ozone layer would be destroyed by the heating of the stratosphere, producing more ultraviolet radiation at the surface, and we need to understand that impact on food supplies," she said.

Nancy Pelosi Rebukes Biden's China Policy -They could have ironed out their differences privately and worked everything out behind closed doors. Instead, unnamed White House officials leaked Nancy Pelosi's Taiwan travel plans and sought to spike the trip.Senior Biden staffers saw no upside to the Speaker of the House visiting Taipei. Publicly, they cautioned against embarrassing the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) on the 95th anniversary of the People's Liberation Army, not to mention the upcoming PartyCongress in late 2022. More anonymous sources warned about possible military responses from Beijing. President Joe Biden went public with these concerns, saying "the military thinks it's not a good idea right now."The White House's own communications with Beijing were the unspoken subtext. China's Foreign Minister Wang Yi and Secretary of State Antony Blinken had justconcluded a five-hour meeting at the G-20 during which Wang had previewed eight areas of bilateral cooperation. Shortly thereafter, Biden and General Secretary Xi Jinpingscheduled their fifth phone call, in advance of an in-person meeting. The upcoming COP27 summit provided John Kerry, the White House's climate envoy, another bite at the climate change cooperation apple. Concurrently, the president was weighingwhether to lift his predecessor's tariffs on Chinese goods—a longstanding demand from Beijing.With this semblance of cooperative momentum, the administration forced the issue publicly and hoped Speaker Pelosi would back down. She did not.The moment her plane touched down at Songshan Airport in Taipei, Pelosi made her position clear: "We must stand by Taiwan." As the CCP punished Taiwan by cancelingfood imports, hacking government websites, and conducting invasive military drills, shebolstered her message, insisting that the U.S. "will not allow [China] to isolate Taiwan." Those words were a rejoinder to Xi's bellicosity, but they were also a gentle rebuke of the head of Pelosi's own party. The administration's fixation on "carefully managing" U.S.-China relations has created and reinforced dangerous policy instincts. In February 2021, Biden officials wereunwilling to admit that the CCP's genocide of Uyghurs and other groups in Xinjiang was ongoing. That summer, John Kerry worked to limit the number of Chinese companies that received an effective import ban for slave labor. In October, Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman lobbied Congress against critical human rights legislation. Then, administration officials declined to sanction key Chinese entities after that bill became law. With respect to Taiwan, U.S. officials cut the video feed of Taiwan's digital minister during the Summit of Democracies for sharing a map that colored China and Taiwan differently. The very next month, American diplomats reportedly urged Lithuania to refrain from upgrading its de facto Taiwan embassy. These failures do not negate Biden's good decisions, particularly his ongoing efforts tostrengthen the quadrilateral security dialogue with Japan, India, and Australia. His Indo-Pacific Economic Framework also holds great potential. But his administration's poor judgment diminishes and overshadows these accomplishments. In its efforts to responsibly compete with the CCP, the Biden administration has imperiled the very people in the direct line of Beijing's ambitions

Pelosi's Taiwan Visit Was A "Carefully Planned Provocation" To "Destabilize": Putin - On Tuesday Russian President Vladimir Putin weighed on on major security issues ranging from the ongoing war in Ukraine to China-US tensions over Taiwan in a televised speech. Speaking before defense officials and regional think tank analysts at the Tenth Moscow Conference on International Security, among the most notable assertion of his is that NATO is moving "further east".Within days prior to launching the Feb.24 invasion of Ukraine, he gave what was essentially a war speech emphasizing that urgent military action was needed to prevent NATO's further expansion into Ukraine. But it seems that in his latest comments Tuesday, he sees the threat of NATO influence at work as far as southeast Asia as well.In the fresh remarks, Putin continued his prior theme of a turn from unipolar to multi-polar world order, based on the decline of the United States and West. He said as translated in state media: "Western globalist elites are provoking chaos by rekindling old and inciting new conflicts, implementing a policy of so-called containment, while undermining any alternative, sovereign paths of development. Thus, they are desperately trying to preserve the hegemony and power that are slipping out of their grasp, trying to keep countries and peoples in the grip of a neo-colonial order."He blasted this Western "hegemony" as what in the end will result in global stagnation. Further he said:"NATO's war machine is moving, approaching Russia's borders closely... Russia has been trying for 30 years to negotiate NATO non-expansion to the east..."The Russian leader continued, "Any means are used. The United States and its vassals rudely interfere in the internal affairs of sovereign states by organizing provocations, coups d'état and civil wars. Threats, blackmail and pressure are resorted to in a bid to force independent states to submit to their will."The Kremlin has long emphasized that the 2014 overthrow of pro-Russian President Viktor Yanukovych was t he real start of hostilities in Ukraine, and that it was fundamentally Washington and its EU allies behind it. The West, however, has rejected this narrative - emphasizing the Maidan events as a spontaneous democratic uprising.

Nancy Pelosi's son - who secretly joined mom on her controversial trip to Taiwan - is a top investor in Chinese telecoms company, despite House Speaker's campaign to tackle China's corporate influence in the US - Nancy Pelosi's son is the second largest investor in a $22million Chinese company whose senior executive was arrested in a fraud investigation, DailyMail.com can reveal, raising questions about his secretive visit to Taiwan with his mother. As well as investing, Paul Pelosi Jr, 53, also worked for the telecoms company, Borqs Technologies, in a board or consultancy role, Securities and Exchange Commission documents show. He was awarded 700,000 shares for his services, making him the fifth largest shareholder in the company. After other insiders sold stock in June 2021 he became the second largest – more stock than one of its two co-founders and topped only by CEO Pat Sek Yuen Chan. In September 2019 Chinese law enforcement detained the president of one of Borq's subsidiaries and seized copies of contracts and accounting records in a reported fraud investigation. A later SEC filing from May 2022 listed the top 10 shareholders which did not include Pelosi Jr., suggesting he has slipped down the rankings of top shareholders since last year. Nancy’s spokesman, Drew Hammill, also told DailyMail.com neither company has ties to Asia and neither processes mined lithium. Neither currently have revenue. DailyMail.com's revelation of Pelosi Jr.'s role in the Beijing-based company comes after he and his powerful mother visited Taiwan in a show of solidarity for the nation that China controversially claims is part of its sovereign territory. Pelosi Jr.'s name was not listed in the official delegation sent out by the Speaker's office. In a statement this week the Speaker admitted her son was her 'escort' on the trip in lieu of her husband when questioned by the press. Nancy's son's ties to the Chinese firm could put the House Speaker in an awkward position over her current campaign to tackle the Chinese government's aggression abroad and its corporate influence in the United States.

Beijing Starts More Live Fire Drills Around Taiwan To Protest Democratic Senator Markey's Visit - The excessive carbon dioxide emissions from the Pelosi delegation visit is still fresh in the Taiwan air, and already China’s military warned that it is holding fresh patrols around Taiwan to “fight back” against another US congressional visit less than two weeks after the House Speaker's controversial trip to Taipei.The PLA started live drills around Taiwan on Monday, the SCMP reported, as the island’s president received the first US congress delegation since a visit by US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi drew unprecedented military pressure from Beijing two weeks ago.“This is a resolute counterstrike and solemn deterrence to the consecutive provocations by the US and Taiwan that undermine peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait,” Wu Qian, a spokesman for China’s defence ministry, said. He added that the visit led by Democratic Senator Ed Markey sent the wrong signals to pro-independence forces in Taiwan. Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense said Monday that it detected 30 Chinese military planes and five warships around Taiwan’s surrounding region.According to Bloomberg, unlike earlier this month when China conducted live-fire exercises and likely fired ballistic missiles over Taiwan’s main island, Beijing didn’t immediately specify exclusion areas for commercial planes or ships to avoid. Chinese naval vessels and warplanes have regularly breached the US-drawn median line that divides the Taiwan Strait since Pelosi’s arrival on Aug. 2.In Beijing, foreign ministry spokesman Wang Wenbin said Beijing had repeatedly warned against the trip, which breached the one-China principle and the three joint communiques signed by Washington. Wang also said the visit “blatantly violates” the country’s “One China” understanding with the US, was a “violation of the sovereignty and territorial integrity of China” and cross-strait reunification was a historic trend that could not be changed.“China will take resolute and strong measures to defend its national sovereignty and territorial integrity,” Wang said. “The handful of US politicians who have been colluding with Taiwan independent separatist forces and attempting to challenge the One China principle, they are overestimating themselves and are doomed to fail.”He urged Washington to stop interfering in the internal affairs of the mainland and warned that any attempt to challenge the one-China principle and split the island from the mainland would be crushed by Beijing.

More US Eyepoking of China with New Congresscritter Visit to Taiwan; What Will China Do Next? by Yves Smith -Wellie, the US seems unable to stop itself from trying to assert itself despite its status as a declining hegemon, at the expense of its putative causes. The latest is yet another provocation of China over Taiwan, apparently to rub in that we can and will.In a tiny bit of “in fairness,” this trip, a visit to Taiwan by legislators led by Senator Ed Markey, was previously scheduled. But coming a mere twelve days after the Pelosi visit, it looks designed to show the government in Beijing as unable to prevent American meddling. From Associated Press:A delegation of American lawmakers arrived in Taiwan on Sunday,…. led by Democratic Sen. Ed Markey of Massachusetts, will meet President Tsai Ing-wen and other officials, as well as members of the private sector, to discuss shared interests including reducing tensions in the Taiwan Strait and investments in semiconductors. BWAAAH! “Reducing tensions”? How about virtual visits rather than junkets?Back to the story:Markey, who chairs the Senate Foreign Relations East Asia, Pacific, and International Cybersecurity Subcommittee, and members of the delegation will reaffirm the United States’ support for Taiwan.The other members of the delegation are Republican Rep. Aumua Amata Coleman Radewagen, a delegate from American Samoa, and Democratic House members John Garamendi and Alan Lowenthal from California and Don Beyer from Virginia…..Campbell, speaking on Friday, said the U.S. would send warships and planes through the Taiwan Strait in the next few weeks and is developing a roadmap for trade talks with Taiwan that he said the U.S. intends to announce in the coming days.Trade talks? So more official visits? And what about more weapons?To back up a bit, even though China is a no-bones-about-it authoritarian government, it’s not hard to see that the US’s tender ministrations are about projecting power, and not about the well-being of the Taiwanese.Recall that China had and still has no formal timetable for Taiwan unification. Some statements have suggested an aspiration for that happening by 2049. That’s an eternity.With China, the particulars that could put off off Taiwan’s day of reckoning include crises and dislocations on the mainland produced by global warming (water scarcity, parts of the country becoming uninhabitable due to extreme heat, food shortages), dustups with important neighbors (India and/or Russia) taking priority, or domestic dissent, say due to pollution, a fall in living standards, etc. And even if China did firm up and stick to its original 2049 target, that translates into Taiwan having things stay more or less the way they are if they don’t make a fuss and embarrass the government in Beijing. The US is already messaging that Taiwan should be happy to become the next Ukraine-in-the-making, as if that were working out well for Ukraine:

Modern US Warmongering Is Scaring Henry Kissinger --  by Caitlin Johnstone -- In a new interview with The Wall Street Journal, immortal Hague fugitive Henry Kissinger says the US is acting in a crazy and irrational way that has brought it to the edge of war with Russia and China: Mr. Kissinger sees today’s world as verging on a dangerous disequilibrium. “We are at the edge of war with Russia and China on issues which we partly created, without any concept of how this is going to end or what it’s supposed to lead to,” he says. Could the U.S. manage the two adversaries by triangulating between them, as during the Nixon years? He offers no simple prescription. “You can’t just now say we’re going to split them off and turn them against each other. All you can do is not to accelerate the tensions and to create options, and for that you have to have some purpose.”Mr. Kissinger courted controversy earlier this year by suggesting that incautious policies on the part of the U.S. and NATO may have touched off the crisis in Ukraine. He sees no choice but to take Vladimir Putin’s stated security concerns seriously and believes that it was a mistake for NATO to signal to Ukraine that it might eventually join the alliance: “I thought that Poland — all the traditional Western countries that have been part of Western history — were logical members of NATO,” he says. But Ukraine, in his view, is a collection of territories once appended to Russia, which Russians see as their own, even though “some Ukrainians” do not. Stability would be better served by its acting as a buffer between Russia and the West: “I was in favor of the full independence of Ukraine, but I thought its best role was something like Finland.” I don’t know about you, but to me this warning is much, much more ominous coming from a bloodsoaked swamp monster than it would be from some anti-imperialist peace activist who was speaking from outside the belly of the imperial machine. This man is a literal war criminal who, as a leading empire manager, helped to unleash unfathomable horrors all around the world the consequences of which are still being felt today. […] So Kissinger remains an unapologetic warmongering psychopath. But if he hasn’t changed as a person, what has? Why is he now cautioning against US aggression and warning that the empire has taken things too far? Well, if Kissinger hasn’t changed, we can only surmise that it is the US empire itself that has changed. Its behavior is now so insane and illogical that it is making a 99 year-old Henry Kissinger nervous.

 U.S., Taiwan to start formal trade talks under new initiative -The United States and Taiwan on Wednesday agreed to start trade talks under a new initiative, saying they wanted to reach agreements with "economically meaningful outcomes," in another sign of stepped up U.S. support for the island. Washington and Taipei unveiled the U.S.-Taiwan Initiative on 21st-Century Trade in June, just days after the Biden administration excluded the Chinese-claimed island from its Asia-focused economic plan designed to counter China's growing influence. The office of the U.S. Trade Representative said the two sides had "reached consensus on the negotiating mandate" and it was expected that the first round of talks will take place early this autumn. "We plan to pursue an ambitious schedule for achieving high-standard commitments and meaningful outcomes covering the eleven trade areas in the negotiating mandate that will help build a fairer, more prosperous and resilient 21st-century economy," Deputy United States Trade Representative Sarah Bianchi said in a statement. The negotiating mandate released along with the announcement said the United States and Taiwan have set a robust agenda for talks on issues like trade facilitation, good regulatory practices, and removing discriminatory barriers to trade. It said the start of the formal talks would be for the purpose of reaching agreements with "high standard commitments and economically meaningful outcomes." It did not mention the possibility of a broad free trade deal, which is something Taiwan has been pressing for. Washington, despite the lack of formal diplomatic ties, has been keen to bolster support for Taiwan, especially as it faces stepped up political pressure from China to accept its sovereignty claims.

"They Can Do Audio, Video, & Physical Surveillance On You 24H/365D A Year" - In this special episode, The Epoch Times' Tiffany Meier sat down with Rex M. Lee, cybersecurity adviser at My Smart Privacy. He helps shed light on China’s cyberattacks on America, how they affect us in our daily lives, and what can be done to stop them. Lee notes one way adversarial countries can get in is through invasive apps: “You have to look at an app as legal malware. And that’s the best way you can describe apps today. An app—whether it’s a social media app developed by Bytedance, such as TikTok, or Facebook, or Instagram—any of these apps, they are basically legal malware that enable the developer to monitor, track, and data mine the end user for financial gain 24 by seven, 365 days a year. “A single intrusive app enables the developer to collect over 5,000 highly confidential data points associated with the end user’s personal information, business information, medical information, legal information, and employment information because the surveillance and data mining done by these companies is indiscriminate, meaning that they’re not only collecting consumer information, they’re collecting every bit of information from the end user, including text messages, email, email attachments, calendar events, and so forth,” he added. As to just how invasive these are, Lee said: “What an app will do is it will interlink with all of the hardware on the device and the sensors on the device, such as camera and microphone, as well as sensors, such as the accelerometer. So they can do audio, video and physical surveillance on you 24 hours, 365 days a year while collecting those 5,000 highly confidential data points on the end user. What they’re doing is they package that and they monetize it. But also, as we’re seeing in the news, is that these tech companies are aligned with governments. So the information a lot of times is ending up in the hands of the government.”

Utility leaders hail clean energy tax incentives as House sends historic climate bill to Biden’s desk - The House of Representatives on Friday passed the Inflation Reduction Act, sending the bill to President Joe Biden, who said he plans to sign it this week.The bill contains tax, healthcare and climate provisions, including about $369 billion in spending over 10 years on energy and climate measures. In a measure expected to affect some utility companies, the legislation is partly funded by a 15% alternative minimum tax for corporations with a 3-year average adjusted book income above $1 billion.The bill contains a range of incentives and tax credits to spur emissions-free energy, electric vehicles, nuclear power and carbon capture, among other things. For example, the bill allows tax credits to be transferred from an entity that is unable to use them to one that can, according to a summary of the bill’s provisions prepared by the Princeton University-led REPEAT Project.“The clean energy tax credits included in the Inflation Reduction Act are the right policies,” said Tom Kuhn, president of the Edison Electric Institute, a trade group representing investor-owned utilities. “This legislation firmly places the United States at the forefront of global efforts to drive down carbon emissions, especially when paired with the historic [research, development, demonstration and deployment] funding included in the bipartisan infrastructure law.” The Senate approved the bill on Aug. 7, following negotiations between Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., and Sen. Joe Manchin, D-W.Va., who had opposed a more expansive version of the bill known as the Build Back Better Act. Here’s a look at what utility leaders are saying about the landmark legislation.Provisions allowing tax credits to be transferred could help “unlock additional value” as Allete’s businesses develop clean energy projects, according to Bethany Owen, the company’s chair, president and CEO.“The stand-alone storage investment tax credit, [or ITC], optionality for both investment and production tax credits, [or PTC], for solar, advanced manufacturing credits and domestic content incentives for wind, solar, batteries and critical minerals are all in the latest version of the bill with batteries and minerals being a major new addition,” Owen said Aug. 3 during an earnings conference call.Also, the bill could improve Allete’s credit metrics, Steve Morris, Allete CFO and senior vice president, said, noting the Duluth, Minnesota-based company would be unaffected by the bill’s 15% minimum corporate tax.

As Historic Climate Bill Heads to Biden’s Desk, Young Activists Demand More — For the septuagenarian lawmakers who wrote the historic climate bill that Congress passed on Friday, and the 79-year-old president who is about to sign it into law, the measure represents a “once in a generation” victory. But younger Democrats and climate activists crave more. They look at the bill as a down payment, and they worry a complacent electorate will believe Washington has at last solved climate change — when in fact scientists warn it has only taken the first necessary steps. “This bill is not the bill that my generation deserves and needs to fully avert climate catastrophe, but it is the one that we can pass, given how much power we have at this moment,” said Varshini Prakash, 29, who co-founded the Sunrise Movement, a youth-led climate activism group. Christina Tzintzun Ramirez, 40, president of NextGen America, which is focused on young voter participation, said it wasn’t lost on her that the climate deal was crafted largely by older men and included some concessions to the fossil fuel industry. “We are very clear that it took so long because our Congress and Senate doesn’t look like the American people,” said Ms. Ramirez, whose group is working to elect more young progressives committed to attacking global warming. “The climate crisis is going to unfold on the majority of young people. Most of these congressional representatives will be dead by the time we face the consequences of their inaction.” In a letter to members of Congress, Ms. Ramirez and about 50 other youth leaders told lawmakers “your work is not finished.” Analysts estimate the new law will draw down the United States’ carbon dioxide emissions to the lowest level since Lyndon Johnson was president — 20 percent below 2005 levels by the end of this decade, on top of another 20 percent cut that will come as a result of market forces already in place. Together, that would eliminate an estimated one billion tons of pollution per year by the end of 2030, almost enough to meet Mr. Biden’s pledge to cut emissions 50 percent by 2030. But scientists say the United States needs to do more. It must stop adding carbon dioxide to the atmosphere by 2050, which the bill won’t achieve. That is the target all major economies must meet to constrain average global temperature rise to 1.5 degrees Celsius, or 2.7 degrees Fahrenheit, above preindustrial levels, scientists say. Beyond that threshold, the likelihood increases significantly of catastrophic droughts, floods, wildfires and heat waves. The planet has already warmed an average of about 1.1 degrees Celsius. “It’s like losing 20 pounds when you need to lose 100 pounds,” said Robert McNally, the president of Rapidan Energy Group, an energy consulting firm. “And this won’t get you there.”

'A lot more to do': Lawmakers eye additional climate action - The House ended a yearslong political saga last Friday by passing Democrats’ sprawling clean energy, health care and tax package, but the fight over climate policy is far from over on Capitol Hill. The bill’s passage came after decades of failure. But as Democrats hugged and celebrated last week, they acknowledged the scientific reality that the United States and other countries will ultimately have to do more to address climate change. “No one ever said this is the end of our work,” Rep. Scott Peters (D-Calif.) said in an interview. “I think there’s a lot more to do.” How much Congress can get done in the near future, however, remains an open question. The bill’s $369 billion in clean energy investments and tax credits is the single largest action Congress has ever taken to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, but Democrats and green advocates are eyeing other ways to advance climate policies. Some are looking at annual spending bills and the National Defense Authorization Act as avenues to pump more money into clean energy programs. Progressives are still pressing President Joe Biden to declare a climate emergency. And some lawmakers and activists on the left are gearing up for a fight on a promised vote next month that would ease federal permitting restrictions — a potential boon to fossil fuel interests.Backers said the bill, H.R. 5376, would help cut the nation’s greenhouse gas emissions roughly 40 percent by 2030 under 2005 levels.An updated analysis of the legislation by the Rhodium Group on Friday pegged the range of reductions at between 32 and 42 percent, compared with 24 to 35 percent without it.The biggest part of those projected cuts comes from long-term extensions of clean energy tax credits and a host of new and expanded incentives for technologies like nuclear, carbon capture and battery storage.The bill would also impose a fee on excess methane emissions and reinstate a Superfund tax to help clean up polluted sites (E&E Daily, July 29).It promises to take a big chunk out of Biden’s goal under the Paris Agreement to halve emissions by the end of the decade.But emissions modeling comes with uncertainty, and the bill leaves open questions about getting to net zero by 2050 — the target scientists say would be necessary to avoid the worst impacts of climate change over the long run.

Biden to sign climate, health care bill tomorrow - President Joe Biden intends to sign into law tomorrow the climate and health care reconciliation package, the White House announced this afternoon.The president will also embark on a cross-country effort to sell the bill, according to the announcement. In addition, Cabinet members will fan out across the U.S. in the coming days to highlight the bill’s benefits.The signing ceremony will successfully bring to a close Democrats’ efforts on the party-line bill, H.R. 5376, which invests $369 billion into climate-related spending. The measure passed the House last Friday.The bill, known as the “Inflation Reduction Act,” includes a host of tax incentives for clean energy, including wind and solar, though it also mandates oil and gas lease sales (E&E Daily, Aug. 15). The bill represents the largest investment made by the United States to combat climate change.According to a White House memo obtained by POLITICO, Cabinet members will travel to 23 states over the coming weeks to tout the bill. Interior Secretary Deb Haaland will visit central California on Wednesday to discuss drought resilience and the climate bill. That same day, Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack will visit Colorado for a discussion on agriculture. Other outreach efforts are also planned. “In the coming weeks, the President will host a Cabinet meeting focused on implementing the Inflation Reduction Act, will travel across the country to highlight how the bill will help the American people, and will host an event to celebrate the enactment of the bill at the White House on September 6th,” the White House said in the announcement.

Biden signs the Inflation Reduction Act into law -It’s official: After more than a year of political wrangling, President Joe Biden approved the Inflation Reduction Act, or IRA, on Tuesday, signing into law the most sweeping climate and energy bill ever enacted in the United States.“This bill is the biggest step forward on climate ever, and it’s going to allow us to boldly take additional steps toward meeting all of my climate goals,” Biden said in a speech delivered from the State Dining Room of the White House shortly before signing the bill.The historic bill contains $369 billion in clean-energy tax credits and funding for climate and energy programs, including efforts to ramp up manufacturing of solar panels, wind turbines, and electric vehicle charging infrastructure. Roughly $60 billion is earmarked for environmental justice initiatives like cleaning up air pollution and installing clean energy projects in low-income communities.In total, independent analyses estimate that the bill’s climate provisions will reduce the country’s greenhouse gas emissions by 40 percent below 2005 levels by the end of the decade, achieving roughly two-thirds of Biden’s overall goal of halving emissions by 2030.It was a long road to the bill’s passage. Over the course of more than a year, Senate Democrats whittled away at Biden’s original, more ambitious proposal in an effort to satisfy Senator Joe Manchin, the conservative Democrat from West Virginia. His support was needed to pass the bill in the evenly divided Senate. A breakthrough came late last month, when Manchin agreed on a package to fund climate action — as long as it offered someconcessions to the fossil fuel industry. The final version of the bill sped through Congress in just a couple of weeks, passing the Senate on August 7 and clearing theHouse five days later. Republicans uniformly opposed the bill.

Inflation Reduction Act tackles climate but could hurt marginalized people - The Inflation Reduction Act signed into law Tuesday by President Biden includes more than $360 billion to address climate change. That's the largest single investment ever made to reduce greenhouse gas emissions — something the White House and major environmental groups are touting as a huge win for humanity.But not everyone will feel the benefits of the new bill equally, analysts and advocates warn. People living in neighborhoods that are already dealing with a lot of pollution fear they will face more harm and climate risk, not less. And that could deepen existing environmental inequalities and lock in decades of unnecessary illness and suffering for people who are already marginalized."There are some parts [of the law] that are good, and there are some parts that are really bad," says Mijin Cha, a professor at Occidental College who studies how to make the transition to a low-carbon economy fairer for workers and communities. "And the parts [of the law] that are really bad are pretty significant."The law includes hundreds of billions of dollars to tackle global warming by building more solar and wind power, making buildings more energy efficient and helping people buy electric vehicles. Analysts estimate it will help the United States reduce planet-warming emissions by about 40% compared to 2005 levels by the end of the decade, which is a big step toward a truly low-carbon economy.But in order to get the critical support of conservative Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin of West Virginia, the law also invests in fossil fuels. It subsidizes the building of new pipelines, guarantees new leasing of oil and gas drilling, and incentivizes investment in still-nascent carbon capture technology, which would allow existing, heavily polluting fossil fuel facilities to operate longer.Those fossil fuel investments led dozens of grassroots environmental organizations to reject the bill, arguing that the harms to communities near fossil fuel sites would outweigh the climate benefits. That's especially true for poor people, Indigenous people and Black people who are already more likely to live with more pollution and less access to clean energy."We are sitting right now with a lot of contradictions. While [the bill] does designate some funding for disadvantaged communities, it's also subsidizing fossil fuels," says Juan Jhong-Chung, the climate director at the Michigan Environmental Justice Coalition. "It feels like what the bill is giving with one hand, it's taking with the other."

‘We've been sold out’: Enviro justice advocates slam Biden's climate compromise - One group of President Joe Biden’s allies isn’t joining Democrats in celebrating his new climate law — advocates for low-income and minority communities, who say that once again their environmental needs have been sacrificed for political compromise.The measure, the most ambitious climate legislation in U.S. history, represents a major win for Biden’s party as it heads into the November election. But many activists from neighborhoods that have long suffered from environmental threats say the trade-offs Democrats made to win the support of Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) outweigh the legislation’s efforts to redress long-standing racial and economic unfairness.Even members of Biden’s own White House advisory council on environmental justice are lamenting the concessions, which they suggest could dent their allies’ enthusiasm for turning out for Democrats at the polls. The deal with Manchin included commitments for oil and gas lease sales, money for carbon capture technology favored by the petroleum industry and the promise of a new bill to ease the permitting process for pipelines — actions that environmental justice advocates say will subject their communities to more fossil fuel pollution.To the advocates, the message their communities are hearing is: Wait your turn. Again.“Somehow, we’re both a bargaining chip and the people that can save the day when it comes to elections,” said Maria Lopez-Nuñez, deputy director of organizing and advocacy with the Ironbound Community Corp. in Newark, N.J., and a member of Biden’s White House Environmental Justice Advisory Council. “Those are moral contradictions that can’t stand for too long. Something’s got to give.”Biden came into office pledging to tackle climate change and racial inequality simultaneously, weaving plans for environmental justice into his platform. Mainstream green organizations pitched in as well, promising to help local groups fight against pollution that puts their communities at risk — and reorienting much of the environmental movement to address criticismthat it has too often favored the priorities of richer, whiter activists. But in the end, the environmental justice advocates say, Democrats chose to take Black, Hispanic and Indigenous voters for granted and well-connected environmental groups cut them out of the political process.

Watch Out! Here Comes the Climate Deal's Other Shoe. -- The Democrats' health, climate, and corporate tax plan—the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA)—was just signed into law by President Biden. If projections are accurate, this legislation will not only drive down prescription drug costs for millions of Americans, it could also reduce greenhouse gas emissions by an unprecedented 40 percent by 2030. Despite some serious flaws, the IRA is still the most significant climate legislation in history, and as chair of the Natural Resources Committee, I am deeply proud of this achievement.Climate and environmental justice (EJ) advocates see a dark cloud on the horizon, however. Senate Majority Leader Charles Schumer has announced that, as part of the deal to secure Senate passage of the IRA, he agreed to a second bill, misleadingly referred to as a "permitting reform" package. While the actual text isn't public yet, the American Petroleum Institute (API), a trade association for fossil fuel companies, leaked a summary of the plan and draft bill text. API has this insider information because the "permitting reform" package is their idea.Based on the API leak, this proposal would restrict public access to the courts to seek remedies against illegal project development; place arbitrary limits on the amount of time the public has to comment on polluting projects; curtail public input, environmental review, and government accountability; require a certain number of harmful fossil fuel projects to be designated as "projects of strategic national importance" to receive priority federal support, assistance, and expedited environmental review; undermine the Clean Water Act; and more.The API plan is a mishmash of long-desired permitting shortcuts that will further inflate oil company profits at the expense of our environment and communities.It will hit everyone, everywhere—but not equally.Projects that emit toxic air pollutants or leak carcinogens into drinking water are almost always sited in poor communities and communities of color. For decades, these frontline EJ communities have been sacrificed to dirty energy and manufacturing projects, resulting in higher rates of cancer and premature deaths.

Mining companies strike gold with new climate law - The Inflation Reduction Act, which President Joe Biden signed into law Tuesday, is chock full of mining industry benefits — including a large tax break to any mining company that can produce amounts of minerals central to energy transition products like electric vehicles. Many in the industry are in full celebration mode. “It’s a big deal,” said Jonathan Evans, president and CEO of Lithium Americas Corp. “We’re delighted with it.” His company, which is working to build the largest lithium mine in the United States, is considering building a second U.S. mine, he said, citing optimism over the demand for domestic minerals. Mining companies are expected to see more widespread demand from the auto and battery manufacturing sectors under the law, because of mineral sourcing requirements that must be met to qualify for the new expanded EV tax credit. This language was added to the bill at the request of Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.). EV backers have groused at the provision, which will limit the tax credit for those purchasing such vehicles (E&E Daily, Aug. 8). But for those in the mining sector, the new law is a bonanza. “For [mining companies], it’s essentially creating a new industry in the U.S.,” said Marc Coltelli, e-mobility and energy leader for Ernst & Young, a consulting firm. Democrats told E&E News they included the mining tax break language as a way to combat China, a global leader in mineral supply chains central to making energy and transportation goods that produce fewer carbon emissions (E&E Daily, Aug. 15). The climate law is the latest in a string of wins for minerals players, who for years have warned the U.S. was ceding ground to China. Both the bipartisan infrastructure bill and the recently enacted bill aiding the semiconductor industry are expected to juice local demand for minerals. The Biden administration has also taken action to boost the industry. According to some industry projections, a host of minerals are expected to see soaring demand amid the transition away from fossil fuels. For EVs and batteries, those minerals include lithium, cobalt, nickel and graphite. Hydrogen fuel cells and solar panels also require their own sets of minerals, like palladium or tellurium.

Climate bill's unlikely beneficiary: US oil and gas industry - — The U.S. oil industry hit a legal roadblock in January when a judge struck down a $192 million oil and natural gas lease sale in the Gulf of Mexico over future global warming emissions from burning the fuels. It came at a pivotal time for Chevron, Exxon and other industry players: the Biden administration had curtailed opportunities for new offshore drilling, while raising climate change concerns.The industry’s setback was short-lived, however. The climate measure President Joe Biden signed Tuesday bypasses the administration’s concerns about emissions and guarantees new drilling opportunities in the Gulf of Mexico and Alaska. The legislation was crafted to secure backing from a top recipient of oil and gas donations, Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin, and was shaped in part by industry lobbyists.While the Inflation Reduction Act concentrates on clean energy incentives that could drastically reduce overall U.S. emissions, it also buoys oil and gas interests by mandating leasing of vast areas of public lands and off the nation’s coasts. And it locks renewables and fossil fuels together: If the Biden administration wants solar and wind on public lands, it must offer new oil and gas leases first. As a result, U.S. oil and gas production and emissions from burning fuels could keep growing, according to some industry analysts and climate experts. With domestic demand sliding, that means more fossil fuels exported to growing foreign markets, including from the Gulf where pollution from oil and gas activity plagues many poor and minority communities.To the industry, the new law signals Democrats are willing to work with them and to abandon the notion fossil fuels could soon be rendered obsolete, said Andrew Gillick with Enverus, an energy analytics company whose data is used by industry and government agencies. “The folks that think oil and gas will be gone in 10 years may not be thinking through what this means,” Gillick said. “Both supply and demand will increase over the next decade.”The result would be more planet-warming carbon dioxide — up to 110 million tons (100 million metric tons) annually — from U.S.-produced oil and gas by 2030, with most coming from fuel burned after export, according to some economists and analysts.

GOP governors who hate Biden's climate bill stand to benefit big from it - The climate legislation President Joe Biden signed on Tuesday became law without the approval of a single Republican in Congress — but it’s still poised to deliver major gains to the GOP-led states whose governors hate the bill. Renewable energy has helped add jobs, lower electricity costs and stave off blackouts in many red states like Texas, Nebraska and Oklahoma thanks to the Obama-era renewable energy policies that launched a wind and solar boom more than a decade ago. But that has not stopped Republican governors from attacking Biden’s bill, even as their states stand to reap financial incentives for wind and solar and benefit from the legislation’s new credits for carbon capture, clean hydrogen, advanced nuclear and energy storage. Take Oklahoma, for example. Gov. Kevin Stitt signed on to an Aug. 4 statement by 22 of the nation’s 30 Republican governors deriding the bill as a “reckless tax and spending spree.” “What you’re doing is you’re taking taxpayer dollars and you’re trying to figure out a way to appease some policy of a constituent group or a lobbyist group,” Stitt said in an interview. “And I just believe that you should let the free market work.” Stitt is proud of the state’s standing as the third largest wind producer in the U.S. — behind only Texas and Iowa. More than 40 percent of Oklahoma’s electricity comes from wind generation, and the state boasts more than 20,000 jobs in clean energy, about 1.3 percent of its workforce. But he disputes the notion that an expansion of wind tax credits could do any more to help his state’s economy. When asked whether he thinks the bill’s technology-neutral approach to tax credits could boost advanced nuclear, carbon capture and other technologies Republicans have traditionally favored, he said: “I don’t.” Alluding to Washington’s previous rounds of multitrillion-dollar pandemic aid packages, he added: “I’m just telling you, as the governor, with [the American Rescue Plan] and with the CARES Act and all the federal money that’s coming, states don’t even know where to spend it all.” Renewable energy tax credits have historically held bipartisan support, largely because of the diversity of states that naturally have strong wind and solar resources, said Jeffrey Davis, a partner in the Tax Transactions & Consulting group at the law firm Mayer Brown and co-head of the firm’s Renewable Energy group. But the new bill’s price tag, including its $369 billion in climate and energy spending is probably just too much for the GOP to swallow, he said.

Grijalva, Porter threaten subpoena over consulting firm’s work with fossil fuel companies - House Natural Resources Committee Chairman Raul Grijalva (D-Ariz.) and Rep. Katie Porter (D-Calif.), the chairwoman of the panel’s Oversight and Investigations Subcommittee, floated the possibility of a subpoena if a consulting firm does not produce documents relating to its marketing work for fossil fuel companies. In the letter, Grijalva and Porter’s second since June, they stated that FTI Consulting has yet to respond to their request. The letter was one of several, with other recipients including Story Partners, DDC Advocacy, Blue Advertising and Singer Associates as well as the American Petroleum Institute. In the second letter, the lawmakers accused the company of deliberately stonewalling them by asserting privileges and confidentiality agreements protecting the clients in question. However, the lawmakers claimed that they declined to outline the nature of those privileges. Over a month after the first consultation, FTI told the committee half of its unnamed clients had refused to consent to disclosing the information, according to the letter. “FTI has not wavered in its blanket refusal to provide even the most basic information about its clients or descriptions of the grounds for its refusal beyond the vaguest assertions of confidentiality and privileges,” Grijalva and Porter wrote. “FTI has provided no indication that this obstruction of congressional oversight will come to an end voluntarily.” Grijalva and Porter added that “confidentiality concerns are a consideration in congressional oversight efforts, but do not preclude Congress from receiving requested documents.” They added that they will begin the subpoena process if they have not received the requested documents by next Wednesday. “Our company takes the Subcommittee’s request very seriously. We continue to be in regular contact with subcommittee staff as we progress our efforts to be responsive to the chair’s request in a manner consistent with our legal obligations to preserve our clients’ confidentiality and privileges,” an FTI spokesperson told The Hill in a statement.

White House Climate Science Overseer Sanctioned And Barred By The National Academy Of Sciences - White House climate official sanctioned by key science body - The National Academy of Sciences has barred Jane Lubchenco, a key White House climate aide, from involvement in NAS publications and activities for five years for violating its code of conduct before joining the administration, the organization said.The move represents a significant rebuke to Lubchenco, who is deputy director for climate and environment at the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy. The NAS, the most prestigious science body in the U.S., said the decision, effective Aug. 8, stems from section 3 of its code of conduct. It states that members "shall avoid those detrimental research practices that are clear violations of the fundamental tenets of research."A NAS spokesperson confirmed that the decision is related to last year's retraction of a paper in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS). Before joining OSTP, Lubchenco edited a paper that was retracted from the journal PNAS in October 2021 because the data underlying the analysis was not the latest available, and because she has a personal relationship with one of the authors (her brother-in-law). Lubchenco, while at the White House, has been spearheading work to develop scientific integrity policies across government agencies.“I accept these sanctions for my error in judgment in editing a paper authored by some of my research collaborators — an error for which I have publicly stated my regret," Lubchenco said in a statement.Lubchenco, a marine scientist, headed the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration during the Obama administration. Lubchenco's involvement with the paper has drawn criticism from House Republicans and from the American Accountability Foundation (AAF), a conservative group that had called on the NAS to probe Lubchenco."The American people deserve leaders in the White House who don’t use their positions of influence to put their thumb on the scales for friends and family. Dr. Jane Lubchenco does not meet that standard and does not deserve to be an Assistant to the President," AAF founder Tom Jones said in a statement.

A bittersweet health care win for Democrats - Democrats are set to achieve their decades-long dream of empowering Medicare to negotiate drug prices. Yet they remain haunted by what could have been and how long they may have to wait before taking another big swing at health care reform. The knowledge of just how much they lost along the way makes Friday’s expected final passage of the package they’ve worked on for the past 18 months bittersweet — even as the party celebrates the bill’s slew of drug pricing reforms as well as its three-year extension of Obamacare subsidies for millions of Americans. “There’s a lot of heartache in legislation,” Rep. Peter Welch (D-Vt.), one of the lead House negotiators of the bill, told POLITICO on Thursday. “You start out with the aspiration for perfection and hopefully you get to settle for progress. Look, we had to make concessions to get 218 votes in the House and 51 in the Senate. So I’m disappointed at what got left behind but still thrilled that we can finally get relief to people struggling with high drug prices.” Democrats are widely expected to lose control of one or both chambers in November, and members are aware that today’s vote on the Inflation Reduction Act may be their last chance for some time to enact major reforms to the U.S. health system. In 2020, the party campaigned on universal health insurance coverage, whether through “Medicare for All,” a public option or some mix of private and government programs. In 2021, Democrats pushed, and in some cases passed, bills to enact sweeping drug price reforms, permanently extend Obamacare subsidies and expand Medicaid in the 12 holdout states that have refused to do so, and pour hundreds of billions into home health care for the elderly and people with disabilities and add dental, vision and hearing benefits to Medicare. But in 2022, in order to win over a handful of more conservative Democrats in the House and Senate, they had to dramatically scale back their ambitions, dropping everything but drug pricing and ACA subsidies and shrinking both so that only a few drugs will be subject to negotiations several years from now, and the subsidies end in 2025. Democrats plan to spend the next three months campaigning on their health policy wins, but nearly everything in the bill that voters would have felt immediately was stripped out. The drug price negotiations mandated by the bill won’t begin until 2026, and will at first cover just 10 of the most expensive drugs that have already been on the market for nearly a decade. And while the out-of-pocket spending cap for Medicare will save many seniors thousands if not tens of thousands of dollars, it won’t take effect until 2025.“Democrats will have some challenges selling this to voters because they will not have a lot tangible to show yet,” “So they’ll have to sell it mainly as a historic victory over Big Pharma and ask the public to trust them on the positive changes yet to come.”

Understanding The Democrats’ Drug Pricing Package - The IRA includes three main elements to reform Medicare drug pricing policy. First, the IRA provides the Secretary of Health & Human Services (HHS) with the authority to negotiate prescription drug prices for Medicare and requires them to do so, though this authority is more limited than the authority proposed in previous reform packages. Second, the IRA aims to limit the rate at which companies increase the prices of existing prescription drugs in Medicare by requiring the payment of inflationary rebates, a policy which has worked effectively in the Medicaid context. Third, the IRA restructures the Medicare Part D benefit both to limit patients’ out-of-pocket costs and to rebalance the bearing of risk for stakeholders in that program, a policy change which has previously had more bipartisan support than the other two elements. The IRA creates a drug price negotiation program within HHS, enabling the Secretary to negotiate for the prices of certain costly drugs within the Medicare program. This authority is limited in a range of ways. First, not all costly drugs are eligible for negotiation. Negotiation is limited to costly single-source drugs, those among the highest-spend products in Part B or Part D that do not have competing small-molecule generics or biosimilars which are both FDA-approved and marketed. Consider a product like Humira, which has spent several years as the best-selling drug in the world, yet which lacks biosimilar competition in the United States after nearly 20 years on the market. These are the types of products which would be eligible for negotiation under the IRA’s reforms.More generally, the IRA prioritizes generic or biosimilar competition as a strategy to lower prices, when compared with negotiation. For example, it includes specific provisions to delay negotiation for biologic products where there is a “high likelihood” (a term defined in the IRA) that a biosimilar will be both “licensed and marketed” within the next two years. However, the IRA does its best to contemplate and respond to a range of strategies companies might use to game this provision and delay the negotiation process. If, for instance, a biosimilar is not “licensed and marketed” within the time frame, the biologic manufacturer must pay a certain amount back to HHS. And in light of the fact that biologic manufacturers often succeed in preventing licensed biosimilars from being marketed for many years—as one example, the first biosimilar was licensed for Humira in 2016, but has yet to be marketed—the IRA forbids the delay to be used to avoid price negotiations in such a circumstance.Second, HHS is limited in terms of the number of drugs whose prices can be negotiated in any given year. In the first year of the negotiation program (2026), the agency can negotiate for the price of only 10 drugs in Part D, a number which rises by an additional 15 Part D drugs in 2027, an additional 15 Part D or Part B drugs in 2028, and an additional 20 Part D or Part B drugs in 2029 and subsequent years. Given that large shares of Medicare drug spending are attributable to just a few drugs, as Kaiser Family Foundation analyses have shown, this limitation still leaves room for the law to achieve significant savings.Third, negotiation is formally prohibited for many years after a product has been on the market, with small-molecule drugs not eligible to be subject to negotiated prices until they have been on the market for 9 years, and biologic drugs not eligible for 13 years (though products may be selected for negotiation earlier, after 7 and 11 years, as the law envisions a multi-year negotiation process). This provision appears designed to respond to concerns that the law does not permit companies to recoup their investments (later steps in the negotiation process itself even require HHS to consider “the extent to which the manufacturer has recouped research and development costs”). Certain products, such as drugs whose only approved indication(s) are for a single rare disease or condition, or plasma-derived products, are categorically excluded from negotiation. The IRA also provides significant structure, both procedural and substantive, for the negotiation process. In addition to the specifics about which drugs are eligible for selection for negotiation, the IRA spells out a detailed timeline involving an exchange of information between HHS and the manufacturer of a selected drug over the negotiation period. For instance, after the Secretary receives certain pieces of information from the manufacturer, the IRA establishes a deadline for the Secretary to provide the manufacturer with a “written initial offer” that not only contains HHS’ pricing offer but also “a concise justification based on the factors described in section 1194(e)” of the IRA. Among those factors (which are too lengthy to list in full here) are manufacturer-specific data (such as on research and development costs and production and distribution costs) and evidence about alternative treatments (such as whether the drug “represents a therapeutic advance” compared to existing alternatives and whether the drug addresses an unmet medical need). The manufacturer may then counteroffer, but in doing so must justify its counteroffer based on those same factors.

 The health care coverage concessions made to strike a deal in the latest reconciliation package came at the expense of Black Americans - The recently passed Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) of 2022, which is headed to President Joe Biden’s desk this week, is historic and unprecedented. In addition to making the most significant investments in the country’s history to address climate change, it also includes health care provisions that will meaningfully improve the affordability of health insurance and prescription drugs for millions of Americans. But one of the massive health care coverage concessions made during the negotiation process came at the expense of Black Americans; sacrificing certain demographic groups for the sake of political feasibility is not a new feature of the American policymaking process. In 12 states, an estimated 2.2 million people are uninsured because they have no accessible health insurance options. People in the “Medicaid coverage gap” have incomes that are too high to qualify for Medicaid, but too low to qualify for premium assistance for Affordable Care Act (ACA) marketplace plans. Advocates have been sounding the alarm about this problem since 2014. And researchers have been beating the drum for at least as long, putting out study after study that underscore the positive effects of Medicaid expansion. Not lost on these advocates and researchers is that states that have not expanded their Medicaid programs, mostly concentrated in the south, have some of the largest shares of Black people. States decisions’ about whether to expand follow a legacy of racialized politics. Democrats had been trying to get this reconciliation package passed for over a year. To secure Senator Joe Manchin’s (D-WV) vote, they had to prioritize deficit reduction and strike certain provisions. But the health care coverage provisions that they chose to exclude would’ve had an outsized impact on Black people in particular. In addition to excluding a fix for the Medicaid coverage gap, policymakers also dropped thepermanent expansion of postpartum Medicaid coverage, which would’ve required all states to extend Medicaid coverage for pregnant people from 60 days postpartum, up to a full year. This provision had the potential to meaningfully improve life outcomes, particularly for Black birthing people, who are three times more likely to die from pregnancy-related causes (52 percent of which occur up to one year after birth) than their white counterparts. The exclusion of Black Americans from federal policy deals, ostensibly on the basis of political and administrative feasibility, is not new. In his book, Fear Itself: The New Deal and Origins of Our Time, Dr. Ira Katznelson explains how the systemic exclusion of Black people from the bedrock of the American welfare state — the Social Security Act of 1935 — occurred under the guise of political feasibility. To reach a deal with southern Democrats, agricultural and domestic workers were excluded from the Social Security and unemployment insurance programs. Over sixty percent of Black workers fell into these groups. In fact, as he documents in one of his other books, When Affirmative Action Was White: An Untold History of Racial Inequality in Twentieth-Century America, many of the key federal policies designed to promote economic opportunity during the New Deal era up until the modern Civil Rights Movement, like the GI Bill, gave white people a leg up and effectively left Black Americans out. During the debate on the reconciliation bill, Senator Raphael Warnock of Georgia, where over a quarter of a million people do not have health insurance because the state has refused to expand the program, introduced an amendment to address the coverage gap. Only five senators (Baldwin, Collins, Ossoff, Sanders, and Warnock) voted to consider the amendment…several Democratic senators came out and said they would be voting no on any and all amendments, because they would distract, divide, and put the rest of the bill at risk; they said they did not consider this amendment topreserve the rest of the bill. But choosing to sacrifice the same group of people, time and time again, sends a message about who we value and who we do not. Policy decisions will always entail tradeoffs, and negotiations will always include concessions. But when policy concessions continually come at the expense of the same group of people, it’s not reasonable to conclude it’s a coincidence. It’s reasonable to consider that it’s a defining feature of the political system.

The Democrats' 'Inflation Reduction Act' Betrays the People Progressives Claim to Care About -- President Biden signed the "Inflation Reduction Act" into law on Tuesday, a behemoth tax-and-spending plan ostensibly intended to reduce inflation, grow the economy, and address climate change. Progressive Democrats like Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders are already celebrating this major political victory. But if they were honest with themselves, progressives would admit that while it might be a political success, the actual details of this legislation betray the working-class people they claim to care about.First and foremost, experts almost unanimously agree that the "Inflation Reduction Act" does absolutely nothing to reduce inflation. The nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office found that the legislation will have a "negligible" impact on inflation in 2022, and by 2023, "inflation would probably be between 0.1 percentage point lower and 0.1 percentage point higher under the bill." In the same vein, an analysis from the Wharton School of Business warns that the behemoth spending bill would have an impact on inflation that's "statistically indistinguishable from zero." Meanwhile, much of what's actually in the legislation only comforts the comfortable and afflicts the afflicted. For example, the bill allocates enormous sums to expanded subsidies for electric vehicles. I hate to break it to you, but the biggest beneficiaries of this expansion will be corporate giants—Ford and General Motors are already raising their prices in response—and affluent Americans living in wealthy coastal areas. Generally speaking, poor people do not buy electric cars.To be fair, the legislation does include income caps on who can qualify. But according toFox Business, households with incomes as high as $299,999 will qualify for the subsidy, and it can be applied to cars as expensive as $55,000 and SUVs as costly as $80,000.Does that sound like a program targeted to the needs of the working class to you?Still, the real gut-punch to the working class comes on the tax hike side of the "Inflation Reduction Act." It funds all the corporate welfare and special subsidies in large part through a new "minimum corporate tax" of 15 percent. While this tax will formally be imposed on corporations, economists agree that a significant portion—some studiessay as high as 70 percent—will ultimately be born by workers through lower wages. The practical impact of this tax hike will be billions more in de facto tax increases on the working class—right when they're already struggling from rampant inflation and can least afford it. The bill also supersizes the Internal Revenue Service and promises to squeeze hundreds of billions more out of American taxpayers via increased enforcement. Democrats insist that they're only going after "billionaire tax cheats," but this simply isn't true. The Joint Committee on Taxation analyzed the plan and found that 78 to 90 percent of the money raised through increased enforcement will come from those making less than $200,000.

Opinion | How the Inflation Reduction Act will (or won’t) affect the midterms - Donald Trump’s latest turn in the spotlight is bad for Democrats — this time by drawing attention away from the Inflation Reduction Act. A lot is riding on the blockbuster bill, which Democrats hope will swing momentum their way ahead of the midterms. But the biggest immediate impact the new law will have is PR-related, which means its being overshadowed does not bode well for November. The Inflation Reduction Act might not be a perfect bill. It doesn’t contain every new program Democrats promised last year. But it’s a good, important law. It includes the biggest investment in fighting climate change in U.S. history. It will prevent health-care premiums from spiking next year for 13 million people on Obamacare marketplace plans, and it should eventually put downward pressure on some prescription drug prices. Oh, and it might help you get your tax refund faster, because the IRS will finally have funds to bring its computer systems out of the Stone Age.Over the long run, the law will improve the lives of regular Americans. But the emphasis here is on long run. If you’re expecting to notice any material improvement in costs or living standards before November, well, that ain’t gonna happen. Take the climate measures. Even some of the subsidies that legally take effect soon won’t really be usable for a while. For example, the bill offers generous tax credits for electric vehicles, but an estimated 70 percent of EVs now sold in the United States will not qualify because of the bill’s material and assembly requirements. To qualify for the subsidies, auto companies must move supply chains out of not only China but also Japan, the European Union, Argentina and other manufacturing and mining hubs. That will likely take years, assuming it happens. And even if it does happen: The intended effects on emissions and ultimately climate change are also years away. These measures are very much worth doing, of course. But their effects will not be realized, or politically appreciated, for some time.Likewise, the provision allowing Medicare to negotiate drug prices won’t kick in until 2026 — and then, for only 10 drugs. The marketplace premium provisions are about keeping an existing subsidy in place that was set to expire in 2023; so it will prevent premiums from getting more expensive, but it generally won’t lower costs from where they already are. Then there’s the new law’s biggest promise, right there in its title: the pledge to reduce inflation.The name “Inflation Reduction Act” was presumably chosen to get Sen. Joe Manchin III (D-W.Va.) on board. He had previously worried that Democrats’ spending package might push prices higher, as Republicans had claimed. Other Democratic lawmakers (and some economists) assured him that this latest iteration of the legislation, which shrinks deficits, would instead reduce inflationary pressures.Realistically, though, the bill is likely to have little impact on inflation either way.The Congressional Budget Office, Congress’s nonpartisan internal scorekeeper, has said that the bill would have a “negligible effect on inflation” in 2022 and that in 2023 it would nudge inflation somewhere between positive and negative 0.1 percentage points. Penn Wharton Budget Model, an independent research organization, estimated the bill’s inflation impact over the next decade as “statistically indistinguishable from zero.”

CDC loosens coronavirus guidance, signaling strategic shift - The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention on Thursday loosened many of its recommendations for battling the coronavirus, a strategic shift that puts more of the onus on individuals, rather than on schools, businesses and other institutions, to limit viral spread. No longer do schools and other institutions need to screen apparently healthy students and employees as a matter of course. The CDC is putting less emphasis on social distancing — and the new guidance has dropped the “six foot” standard. The quarantine rule for unvaccinated people is gone. The agency’s focus now is on highly vulnerable populations and how to protect them — not on the vast majority of people who at this point have some immunity against the virus and are unlikely to become severely ill.The new recommendations signal that the Biden administration and its medical advisers have decided that the lower fatality rate from covid-19 in a heavily vaccinated population permits a less demanding set of guidelines.“The current conditions of this pandemic are very different from those of the last two years,” CDC epidemiologist Greta Massetti said Thursday in a briefing for reporters. The virus has killed more than 1 million people in the United States since it arrived in early 2020. About 42,000 people with covid are hospitalized and the daily death toll is close to 500, according to a Washington Post seven-day average of daily trends. Those numbers, though quite a bit higher than in early spring, do not approach the dire figures of last winter, and CDC officials have repeatedly pointed to greater protection against the virus because of high levels of vaccine- and infection-induced immunity, coupled with the rollout of effective treatments that have reduced severe illness.A report released Thursday by the agency explaining the guidance revisions said the more favorable circumstances allow public health officials to focus on “sustainable measures to further reduce medically significant illness as well as to minimize strain on the health care system, while reducing barriers to social, educational, and economic activity.” But the revision in guidance carries some risk, according to infectious-disease experts: Another fall and winter wave of cases, or the emergence of a new coronavirus variant, could call into question the wisdom of the CDC’s strategic pivot or hamper the agency’s ability to reimpose tougher guidelines. As part of the changes, the agency is dropping its recommendation that people be screened or tested for covid in most settings. That change is likely to affect policies in workplaces, schools and day-care centers. “When considering whether and where to implement screening testing of asymptomatic people with no known exposure, public health officials might consider prioritizing high-risk congregate settings, such as long-term care facilities, homeless shelters, and correctional facilities, and workplace settings that include congregate housing with limited access to medical care,” the CDC wrote in the report explaining the changes. One CDC webpage, titled “How to Protect Yourself and Others,” has been extensively revised. It no longer states, for example, “If possible, maintain 6 feet between the person who is sick and other household members.” The new language is more nuanced, does not employ the 6-foot rule, and acknowledges that it may be impractical to stay away from a sick person: “In those situations, use as many prevention strategies as you can, such as practicing hand hygiene, consistently and correctly wearing a high-quality mask, improving ventilation, and keeping your distance, when possible, from the person who is sick or who tested positive.”

Even the CDC Is Acting Like the Pandemic Is Functionally Over - Americans have been given the all clear to dispense with most of the pandemic-centric behaviors that have defined the past two-plus years—part and parcel of the narrative the Biden administration is building around the “triumphant return to normalcy,” says Joshua Salomon, a health-policy researcher at Stanford. Where mitigation measures once moved in near lockstep with case numbers, hospitalizations, and deaths, they’re now on separate tracks; the focus with COVID is, more explicitly than ever before, on avoiding only severe illness and death. The country seems close to declaring the national public-health emergency done—and short of that proclamation, officials are already “effectively acting as though it’s over,” says Lakshmi Ganapathi, a pediatric-infectious-disease specialist at Boston Children’s Hospital. If there’s such a thing as a “soft closing” of the COVID crisis, this latest juncture might be it. The shift in guidelines underscores how settled the country is into the current state of affairs. This new relaxation of COVID rules is one of the most substantial to date—but it wasn’t spurred by a change in conditions on the ground. A slew of Omicron subvariants are still burning across most states; COVID deaths have, for months, remained at a stubborn, too-high plateau. The virus won’t budge. Nor will Americans. So the administration is shifting its stance instead. No longer will people be required to quarantine after encountering the infected, even if they haven’t gotten the recommended number of shots; schools and workplaces will no longer need to screen healthy students and employees, and guidance around physical distancing is now a footnote at best. All of this is happening as the Northern Hemisphere barrels toward fall—a time when students cluster in classrooms, families mingle indoors, and respiratory viruses go hog wild—the monkeypox outbreak balloons, and the health-care system remains strained. The main COVID guardrail left is a request for people to stay up to date on their vaccines, which most in the U.S. are not; most kids under 5 who have opted for the Pfizer vaccine won’t even have had enough time to finish their three-dose primary series by the time the school year starts. In an email, Jasmine Reed, a public-affairs specialist for the CDC, suggested the Pfizer timing mismatch wasn’t a concern, because “a very high proportion of children have some level of protection from previous infection or vaccination”—even though infection alone isn’t as powerfully protective as vaccination. “It’s like they're throwing their hands up in the air,” says Rupali Limaye, a public-health researcher and behavioral scientist at Johns Hopkins University. “People aren’t going to follow the guidance, so let’s just loosen them up.”It is true that, as the CDC epidemiologist Greta Massetti said in a press briefing last week, “the current conditions of this pandemic are very different.” The country has cooked up tests, treatments, and vaccines. By some estimates, roughly three-quarters of the country harbors at least some immunity to recent variants. But those tools and others remain disproportionately available to the socioeconomically privileged. Meanwhile, Planey told me, people who are poor, chronically ill, disabled, immunocompromised, uninsured, racially and ethnically marginalized, or working high-risk jobs are still struggling to access resources, a disparity exacerbated by the ongoing dearth of emergency COVID funds. know your risk, protect yourself, the infographics read—even though that me before we concept is fundamentally incompatible with tempering an infectious disease. If wide gaps in health remain between the fortunate and the less fortunate, the virus will inevitably exploit them.

The most recent pivots are not likely to spark a wave of behavioral change: Many people already weren’t quarantining after exposures, or routinely being tested by their schools or workplaces, or keeping six feet apart. But shifting guidance could still portend trouble long-term. One of the CDC’s main impetuses for change appears to have been nudging its guidance closer to what the public has felt the status quo should be—a seemingly backward position to adopt. Policies are what normalize behaviors, says Daniel Goldberg, a public-health ethicist at the University of Colorado Anschutz Medical Campus. If that process begins to operate in reverse—“if you always just permit what people are doing to set your policies, guaranteed, you’re going to preserve the status quo.” Now, as recommendations repeatedly describe rather than influence behavior, the country is locked into a “circular feedback loop we can’t seem to get out of,” Ganapathi told me. The policies weaken; people lose interest in following them, spurring officials to slacken even more. That trend in and of itself is perhaps another form of surrender to individualism, in following the choices of single citizens rather than leading the way to a reality that’s better for us all.

COVID public health emergency appears to be headed for extension --The Biden administration appears headed toward extending the COVID-19 public health emergency for another three months, allowing special powers and programs to continue past the midterm election. HHS had extended the emergency declaration through Oct. 13 and pledged it would give states and health providers 60 days' notice before it ends. Lifting the emergency would bring major policy shifts to insurance markets, drug approvals and telehealth. It also keeps in place a higher share of federal Medicaid spending if states offered continuous coverage to enrollees, avoiding the program's usual churn. Ending the emergency would lead states to determine whether their Medicaid enrollees are still eligible for coverage — a huge undertaking that could result in millions of Americans being removed from the program. After a long plateau, the number of new COVID cases have been falling and wastewater surveillance data has shown declines for three straight weeks, per Evercore ISI. And yet, about 400 Americans still die every day from COVID-19.

CDC Director Walensky to reorganize agency after admitting Covid pandemic response fell short - CDC Director Rochelle Walensky is reorganizing the agency, saying it didn't react quickly enough during the Covid pandemic, according an internal review of the agency's operations released on Wednesday. Walensky laid out several organizational changes the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention will take over the coming months to correct missteps and failures that occurred during the last 2.5 years of the pandemic, according to a fact sheet. "For 75 years, CDC and public health have been preparing for COVID-19, and in our big moment, our performance did not reliably meet expectations," Walensky said in a statement. "My goal is a new, public health action-oriented culture at CDC that emphasizes accountability, collaboration, communication, and timeliness." The central objectives of the reorganization are focused on sharing scientific data faster and making it easier for the public to understand health guidance, according to the briefing document. Walensky launched the review in April after the massive winter surge of infections from the omicron variant upended the nation's public health response. The CDC repeatedly faced criticism during the pandemic for confusing public health recommendations and releasing data too slowly through retrospective reports that were outpaced by the rapid spread of the virus. Public health experts were often frustrated that briefings on the pandemic relied on data from other countries, such as the United Kingdom and Israel. Walensky is appointing an executive to lead a team that will implement changes. The CDC will also create a new executive council that reports directly to Walensky to determine the agency's key priorities backed up by budget decisions. The agency's science and laboratory sciences divisions, which play crucial roles in investigating and tracking public health threats such as Covid, will also report to the CDC director. The CDC is also creating an equity office to make sure agency's workforce reflects the U.S. population and better communicates public health guidance across all groups.

CDC Announces Overhaul After Botching Pandemic -- After more than two years of missteps and backpedaling over Covid-19 guidance that had a profound effect on Americans' lives, the Centers for Disease Control (CDC) announced on Wednesday that the agency would undergo a complete overhaul - and will revamp everything from its operations to its culture after failing to meet expectations during the pandemic, Bloomberg reports. Director Rochelle Walensky began telling CDC’s staff Wednesday that the changes are aimed at replacing the agency’s insular, academic culture with one that’s quicker to respond to emergencies. That will mean more rapidly turning research into health recommendations, working better with other parts of government and improving how the CDC communicates with the public. -Bloomberg"For 75 years, CDC and public health have been preparing for Covid-19, and in our big moment, our performance did not reliably meet expectations," said Director Rochelle Walensky. "I want us all to do better and it starts with CDC leading the way. My goal is a new, public health action-oriented culture at CDC that emphasizes accountability, collaboration, communication and timeliness."As Bloomberg further notes, The agency has been faulted for an inadequate testing and surveillance program, for not collecting important data on how the virus was spreading and how vaccines were performing, for being too under the influence of the White House during the Trump administration and for repeated challenges communicating to a politically divided and sometimes skeptical public." A few examples:

• CDC Spreads Misinformation On Masking, Not Science
• CDC Admits No Record Of Naturally Immune Transmitting COVID-19
• CDC's Masking Flip-Flop
• CDC Admits It Gave False Information About COVID-19 Vaccine Surveillance
• CDC Admits It Can't Back Claim That Vaccines Don't Cause Variants
• Causing Coronavirus Confusion Again

Walensky made the announcement in a Wednesday morning video message to CDC staff, where she said that the US has 'significant work to do' in order to improve the country's public health defenses.

FDA authorizes rationing of the vaccine against monkeypox - Given the rising rates of monkeypox infections across the US and the limited available doses of the Jynneos vaccine (Imvanex in Europe) made by Bavarian Nordic, the only authorized vaccine against the orthopoxvirus, last week the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) issued an emergency use authorization (EUA) to ration the vaccine through the use of intradermal injections.FDA Commissioner Dr. Robert M. Califf said, “In recent weeks, the monkeypox virus has continued to spread at a rate that has made it clear our current vaccine supply will not meet the current demand. The FDA quickly explored other scientifically appropriate options to facilitate access to the vaccine for all impacted individuals. By increasing the number of available doses, more individuals who want to be vaccinated against monkeypox will now have the opportunity to do so.”What the commissioner is explaining is called fractional monkeypox vaccine dosing, or a dose-sparing measure. Instead of giving the vaccine deep into the muscle, one-fifth of the standard dose is injected between the layers of skin. Evidence for the intradermal route was obtained based on a 2015 clinical study conducted by the government which demonstrated it could provide a similar immune response to intramuscular injection. As a result, the total number of available doses has been expanded by five-fold or five doses per vial.Dr. Peter Marks, director of the FDA’s Center for Biologics Evaluation and Research, speaking during the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) seminar to inform clinicians of the change in the interim guidance on the new practice, estimated that approximately 1.7 million Americans were at risk of contracting monkeypox. At least 3 million doses would be needed, although only half that amount would be available by year’s end.The fractional dosing offered the only viable alternative as the ACAM2000 smallpox vaccine, which is available in abundance, carries a significant risk of myocarditis and rare but known complications of death. Specifically, ACAM2000 is contraindicated in immunocompromised individuals.Yet even as an intradermal injection, the Jynneos vaccine (a smallpox vaccine) still requires two doses to be given 28 days apart to complete the series. It has also not been approved for children under the age of 18. Jynneos has also never been verified to be effective against monkeypox, and little is known about its role as postexposure prophylaxis.

Before monkeypox outbreak, U.S. officials knew for years they didn't have enough of key shot - Top U.S. health officials have known for years that the country’s Strategic National Stockpile did not have enough doses of a smallpox vaccine that is now key to the monkeypox fight, according to three former senior officials and a current official working on the monkeypox response. The U.S. has stockpiled Jynneos, the vaccine by Bavarian Nordic, which is also being used to combat monkeypox. The U.S. never had the money to purchase the millions of doses that experts felt were necessary, the officials said. Now, that shortfall is hampering efforts to contain the growing monkeypox outbreak, one in which the Biden administration has come under fire for failing to deliver enough vaccine for the millions of people at risk. “Every time I meet a member of Congress, I let them know what the need is,” said Dawn O’Connell, head of the Administration for Strategic Preparedness and Response, in an interview. “The SNS … has been chronically underfunded. We need to get this SNS fully funded and stocked against what we think the next threats are.” The Strategic National Stockpile was supposed to have about 120 million Jynneos doses, enough for 60 million people, said the officials who were granted anonymity to discuss sensitive government matters. Jynneos was stockpiled as an alternative to ACAM 2000, a different vaccine that is not suitable for people who are immunocompromised. Prior to 2019, the U.S. had just 20 million doses. In 2020, the U.S. purchased just over 1 million doses to replenish expired vaccine. Paul Chaplin, CEO of Bavarian Nordic, told POLITICO on Thursday that after the vaccine received approval from the Food and Drug Administration in 2019, the U.S. stockpile requirement called for the protection of 66 million at-risk Americans. That meant about 132 million doses of the Jynneos shot were needed for people who cannot receive ACAM 2000 in the event of a smallpox outbreak. “That’s people [who] are vulnerable who shouldn’t really receive first and second generation vaccines,” Chaplin said.

Monkeypox: U.S. to provide vaccines for Pride, other events attended by gay men --The U.S. will provide 50,000 monkeypox vaccine doses specifically for large events with high attendance by gay and bisexual men in an effort to better reach the community most at risk right now, health officials said Thursday. Dr. Rochelle Walensky, director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, said communities hosting Pride and other events can order additional shots to offer vaccinations on-site. The CDC is asking jurisdictions that order more vaccine for these events to provide a plan on how they will educate attendees about the risk factors associated with monkeypox, Walensky said. The education outreach includes tips on safer sex, including temporarily limiting sexual partners during the current outbreak, according to the CDC director. Monkeypox is primarily spreading through close contact during sex right now. "I want to emphasize that while we are offering the vaccine at these events to those at high risk, this is a two-dose vaccine series and receiving the vaccine at these events will not provide protection at the event itself," Walensky said. It's particularly important to avoid behavior that increases the risk of infection between the first and second dose of the vaccine, she said. The U.S. is deploying the Jynneos vaccine, made by the Danish biotech company Bavarian Nordic, to immunize people against monkeypox. The vaccine is administered in two doses given 28 days apart. It takes two weeks after the second dose to produce the maximum immune response to protect against the virus. The U.S. has delivered more than 1 million doses of the monkeypox vaccine across the country since the outbreak started in May, according to the Health and Human Services Department. The federal government will make another 1.8 million doses available for states and other local jurisdictions to order on Monday. The U.S. has also delivered 22,000 courses of the antiviral treatment tecovirimat so far and will make another 50,000 courses available for state and local jurisdictions to order next week, according to HHS. The U.S. has reported more than 13,500 cases of monkeypox across 49 states, Washington D.C., and Puerto Rico, according to the CDC. The overwhelming majority of infections, 98%, are in men and 93% of patients who provided their gender and recent sexual history were men who have sex with men. The median age of patients is 35 years old. The outbreak is disproportionately impacting Black and Hispanic communities. Nearly 35% of monkeypox patients are white, 33% are Hispanic and 28% are Black, according to CDC data. Whites make up about 59% of the U.S. population while Blacks and Hispanics account for 13% and 19%, respectively. Public health officials are tailoring outreach for upcoming events attended primarily by Black and Hispanic individuals, said Demetre Daskalakis, the White House deputy monkeypox response coordinator. Walensky said the CDC is working closely with local officials ahead of Atlanta Black Pride, which begins Aug. 31, and Southern Decadence in New Orleans, which starts Sept. 1. "Specifically we're asking for plans for how the education will happen, how we can do more outreach in some cases, whether we can make testing available, how we can make vaccine available," Walensky said.

LGBTQ advocates say the government is missing communities of color in its monkeypox response - As monkeypox spreads across the country, new data suggests a worrying trend: Black and Latino men who have sex with men are far more likely to catch the virus than their white counterparts. While the numbers are limited, they are stark. Nearly 28 percent of monkeypox cases in the U.S. right now are among Black individuals, and 33 percent are among Hispanic people, CDC Director Rochelle Walensky said on Thursday, despite those groups only comprising 13.6 and 18.9 percent of the population, respectively. Despite these warning signs, LGBTQ health advocates and public health experts said government messaging is failing to reach the communities that need it most, and fear federal and state health officials are repeating the mistakes of not only the coronavirus pandemic but also the HIV epidemic, which still disproportionately affects people of color. They want the government to engage more closely with organizations that those in affected communities trust, focus outreach in neighborhoods where they live and in the media that they consume, and create better tools for people to seek information and access care. “We had a chance to do better,” said Matthew Rose, a longtime health equity and HIV advocate. “We know the challenges from Covid. It’s so important to find trusted messengers, but we continue to do broad-based messaging. Then we wait, and say, ‘Look at all this disparity again.’” Federal health officials said they are determined to eliminate the disparities. On Wednesday, Walensky said she was changing the agency’s broader communications strategy, aiming for greater transparency and simpler language when speaking to the public. The administration announced on Thursday a pilot program that will make up to 50,000 monkeypox vaccine doses available from the Strategic National Stockpile to states and localities to distribute at LGBTQ events to better reach at-risk communities, including Black and Latino individuals. Walensky said states’ requests for doses must also include information about “how they will address health equity in delivery of both messaging as well as vaccine.” “We know working really closely with organizations and trusted messengers for the populations has been really critical,” Demetre Daskalakis, deputy coordinator for the White House monkeypox response, said during a briefing. “We continue to do the work and go deeper and deeper into engagement.” People protest during a rally calling for more government action to combat the spread of monkeypox. A man holds a sign saying "vaccine equity now." But the early CDC data on disparities may understate the problem. Of the more than 13,500 confirmed U.S. monkeypox cases, the CDC only has race and ethnicity data for about 6,000, Walensky said. And only a handful of states, including California, New York and New Jersey, routinely report those breakdowns for monkeypox cases.

 Updated COVID boosters could be available in 3 weeks, White House predicts - Newly updated COVID-19 boosters tailored to target a dominant strain of the virus will be available in the next three weeks or so, assuming the Food and Drug Administration and Centers for Disease Control and Prevention work through their processes for authorization as expected, White House COVID coordinator Dr. Ashish Jha's predicted on Tuesday. In late June, the FDA directed Moderna and Pfizer to make vaccines for the upcoming winter that targeted the more contagious BA.5 omicron subvariant, along with the original COVID strain. That work has been underway and the next step is for the FDA and CDC to review data from the companies, once they've received it. Neither the FDA nor the CDC has announced a timeline. The rollout was expected sometime in September, but Jha's estimate on Tuesday was the most specific to date. "We're going to know more about this in the upcoming weeks and these vaccines will become available by early to mid-September," Jha said at an event hosted by the U.S. Chamber of Commerce Foundation, again including the caveat that FDA and CDC need to act before anything can be official. "But the big picture, bottom line, is these are substantial upgrades in our vaccines," Jha said. "And those vaccines are coming very, very soon."

 FTC threatens to sue firm allegedly revealing abortion clinic visits - The Federal Trade Commission is threatening to sue an adtech company it alleges reveals people’s visits to sensitive locations, including women’s reproductive health clinics, according to a lawsuit against the agency.The agency’s proposed complaint, against Idaho-based Kochava, argues the company violates laws that prohibit “unfair or deceptive practices” by allowing its customers to license data collected from mobile devices that can identify people and track their visits to health-care providers.In addition to women’s reproductive health clinics, the agency argues that the data can be used to trace people to therapists’ offices, addiction recovery centers and other medical facilities. Because the coordinates the company collects included a time stamp, they can be used to identify when a person visited a location.Kochava revealed the threat in a Friday lawsuit, where the company says that the agency “wrongfully alleges” that it is in violation of consumer protection laws. The FTC declined to comment.The action is an early indication of how the agency might assert itself as a defender of health-related data, in the wake of the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Roe v. Wade in June. The FTC action comes as prominent Democrats, privacy advocates and technologists warn that people’s digital trails could become evidence in abortion prosecutions, and after cases where details like search history and Facebook messagesabout the procedure have been used as evidence against women.In the absence of a comprehensive federal privacy law, there are limited steps that Democrats in Washington can take to protect reproductive health data. The Biden White House has turned to the Federal Trade Commission to take up the mantle, urging the agency in a July executive order to take steps that would protect people’s privacy when they’re seeking reproductive health services. However the more than 100-year-old agency has struggled to gain the resources and technological expertise needed to police emerging privacy threats. The FTC historically moves slowly in building and bringing cases against companies. FTC privacy cases can take years to resolve, but Kochava has already announced some changes to its privacy practices around sensitive health data. Kochava said the FTC sent it a proposed complaint “in or about July and August,” roughly three months since the news of the Supreme Court decision first leaked.

80% of US Voters Across Party Lines Support Expanding Social Security -- As progressive lawmakers renewed calls for protecting Social Security from GOP attacks, Data for Progress on Monday pointed to polling that shows about 80% of U.S. voters across partisan divides support boosting benefits.As a recent Social Security Administration report explains, “The Old-Age, Survivors, and Disability Insurance (OASDI) program makes monthly income available to insured workers and their families at retirement, death, or disability.”The program traces back to the Social Security Act, signed into law on August 14, 1935 by then-U.S. President Franklin D. Roosevelt. Marking the 87th anniversary Sunday, the Congressional Progressive Caucus (CPC) warned that the program is “under attack from Republicans,” despite its popularity among voters.Data for Progress highlighted Monday that 86% of voters surveyed in June said they are “very” or “somewhat” concerned that the U.S. government will reduce Social Security benefits for those who currently receive them.In July, the progressive think tank found that 70% of all voters—including 76% of Independents, 71% of Republicans, and 64% of Democrats—said they had heard “nothing at all” about GOP proposals to “sunset” the program.Data for Progress also found last month that 81% of all likely voters—including 88% of Democrats, 79% of Independents, and 75% of Republicans—support legislation to raise Social Security benefits to match the cost of living.“Moreover, voters strongly support the pay-fors introduced in new legislation that would increase the solvency of Social Security and pay for new, expanded benefits,” the group noted in a blog post. “We find that 76% of voters support imposing a payroll tax on Americans making more than $400,000 annually, including 88% of Democrats, 76% of Independents, and 65% of Republicans.” The July polling further showed that 79% of all voters—including 89% of Democrats, 72% of Independents, and 72% of Republicans—believe Congress “should vote to expand Social Security benefits now, even though Democratic proposals only expand benefits for five years and would raise taxes on Americans earning more than $400,000 per year.”

Trump's lawyer signed a statement months ago saying all classified documents had been turned over, report says. The FBI found more during its raid on Mar-a-Lago. - A lawyer for former President Donald Trump signed a statement in June telling the Justice Department that all classified materials had been returned — but the FBI found more during its search of Mar-a-Lago on Monday.That's according to The New York Times, which first reported on the written declaration Saturday, citing four people familiar with the document. The statement was given to the Justice Department after a counterintelligence official had visited Mar-a-Lago on June 3, the outlet reported.But court records made public on Friday showed the FBI recovered 11 boxes of classified records from Mar-a-Lago during it's Monday search, including some that were labeled "top secret" and meant to be stored in special government facilities. Trump has denied wrongdoing and claimed he declassified all the documents, but did not provide documentation of that.The June statement signed by Trump's lawyer, and the subsequent recovery of additional classified materials, could cast doubt on Trump's claims that he and his legal team were cooperating fully with the Justice Department investigation prior to the raid.Accusations by Trump and his allies that the raid was politically motivated prompted the attorney general to move to make thesearch warrant public. The court documents revealed the Justice Department was investigating possible violations of three laws that related to the handling of government documents, including part of the Espionage Act.Republican lawmakers have continued to demand further explanation on what prompted the raid. The written statement reported by the Times provides additional insight into the events that led to the Justice Department taking such an unprecedented step.Trump's office did not immediately respond to Insider's request for comment. Trump spokesman Taylor Budowich dismissed the reporting on the lawyer's June statement."Just like every Democrat-fabricated witch hunt previously, the water of this unprecedented and unnecessary raid is being carried by a media willing to run with suggestive leaks, anonymous sources and no hard facts," he told the Times.

Read the unsealed DOJ documents underpinning search of Trump's Mar-a-Lago – POLITICO - A search warrant newly unsealed on Friday reveals that the FBI is investigating Donald Trump for a potential violation of the Espionage Act and recovered classified documents from the former president’s Florida estate earlier this week. Read the unsealed version of the search warrant and an accompanying receipt below.

DOJ says release of Mar-a-Lago affidavit would harm ongoing criminal probe - The Justice Department intends to unseal additional documents connected to the FBI search at President Donald Trump’s Mar-a-Lago estate but is urging a federal court to maintain the secrecy of the sworn affidavit describing the basis for the search. The DOJ is particularly concerned that the release of details from the affidavit might harm ongoing efforts to interview witnesses, given the threats to federal agents in wake of the Mar-a-Lago search. “If disclosed, the affidavit would serve as a roadmap to the government’s ongoing investigation, providing specific details about its direction and likely course, in a manner that is highly likely to compromise future investigative steps,” U.S. Attorney Juan Gonzalez and Justice Department counterintelligence chief Jay Bratt said in a filing urging the continued secrecy of the affidavit. “The fact that this investigation implicates highly classified materials further underscores the need to protect the integrity of the investigation and exacerbates the potential for harm if information is disclosed to the public prematurely or improperly,” the DOJ officials wrote. Instead, DOJ is urging the court to unseal a redacted document that includes additional filings connected to the search warrant, including a cover sheet, DOJ’s motion to seal the warrant on Aug. 5 and the judge’s sealing order issued the same day. Among DOJ’s concerns about releasing the underlying information is that witnesses might stop cooperating, particularly “given the high-profile nature of this matter.” “Disclosure of the government’s affidavit at this stage would also likely chill future cooperation by witnesses whose assistance may be sought as this investigation progresses, as well as in other high-profile investigations,” Gonzalez and Bratt say, adding “This is not merely a hypothetical concern, given the widely reported threats made against law enforcement personnel in the wake of the August 8 search.” Throughout the filing, DOJ makes references to its ongoing criminal investigation connected to the search — a probe that last week’s release of the search warrant revealed to include potential crimes related to the mishandling of classified materials and presidential records, as well as obstruction of Justice. Revealing the affidavit, DOJ noted Monday, would jeopardize that probe. “Here, the government has a compelling, overriding interest in preserving the integrity of an ongoing criminal investigation,” the DOJ officials argued. The filing cites news reports about an uptick in threats against FBI agents as well as an attack by an armed man against an FBI building in Cincinnati last week. Although the magistrate judge overseeing the case, Bruce Reinhart, is not bound by DOJ’s request to maintain the secrecy of the affidavit, it would represent an extremely rare step, even in cases of less national significance. DOJ acknowledged that the decision is Reinhart’s and said that if he chooses to release the affidavit, the department would propose significant redactions “so extensive as to render the remaining unsealed text devoid of meaningful content.”

Opposing unsealing of FBI affidavit, DoJ signals expanding state secrets investigation of Trump - Amid escalating demands by Republican lawmakers for the release of all documents relating to the August 8 FBI raid on Donald Trump’s Florida compound, the Department of Justice (DoJ) on Monday opposed the unsealing of the affidavit that was used to obtain the warrant sanctioning the seizure of classified documents held illegally by the ex-president. The thirteen-page brief was filed in US District Court by US Attorney Juan Gonzalez and Jay Bratt, chief of the Counterintelligence and Export Control Section of the National Security Division of the Justice Department. It made clear that Attorney General Merrick Garland and the Justice Department are proceeding aggressively in their criminal investigation of Trump’s violations of long-standing and rigorously-enforced rules and procedures safeguarding state secrets. The government’s filing underscored the unprecedented character of the crisis of the American political system, which shows no signs of abating. The government’s brief was filed in response to requests from newspapers and media outlets that District Judge Bruce Reinhart unseal the affidavit, the detailed presentation of evidence submitted by the FBI to substantiate the assertion of probable cause to prosecute Trump for violating federal statutes, including the Espionage Act. It is highly unusual for an affidavit to be unsealed before an indictment laying out criminal charges has been issued, as in the current investigation of Trump. The DoJ argued that unsealing the affidavit at this stage would jeopardize its investigation. It wrote: “There remain compelling reasons, including to protect the integrity of an ongoing law enforcement investigation that implicates national security, that support keeping the affidavit sealed.”The brief listed aspects of the investigation detailed in the affidavit that would be compromised, including “highly sensitive information about witnesses, including witnesses interviewed by the government; specific investigative techniques; and information required by law to be kept under seal pursuant to Federal Rule of Criminal Procedure.”It continued: “If disclosed, the affidavit would serve as a roadmap to the government’s ongoing investigation, providing specific details about its direction and likely course, in a manner that is highly likely to compromise further investigative steps. In addition, information about witnesses is particularly sensitive given the high-profile nature of this matter and the risk that the revelation of witness identities would impact their willingness to cooperate with the investigation.” It attached a footnote, stating: “This is not merely a hypothetical concern, given the widely reported threats made against law enforcement personnel in the wake of the August 8 search.” The footnote cited last Thursday’s attack on an FBI field office in Cincinnati by an armed pro-Trump gunman and various press reports of threats from Trump supporters. It argued further that disclosure of the affidavit would “chill future cooperation by witnesses whose assistance may be sought as this investigation progresses, as well as in other high-profile investigations.” The phrase about “other investigations” was an oblique but pointed reference to the ongoing DoJ investigation of Trump’s January 6 coup conspiracy to overthrow the 2020 elections and seize dictatorial power.

Judge Willing to Unseal Parts of Trump Search Warrant Affidavit, Orders DOJ Redactions - A federal judge in a surprise decision on Thursday signaled that he is willing to release parts of the affidavit that justified an FBI search of former President Donald Trump’s Florida estate, ordering the Justice Department to submit proposed redactions next week. U.S. Magistrate Judge Bruce Reinhart, who signed off on the warrant that allowed the FBI to enter Trump’s Mar-a-Lago home, heard arguments over whether the key records should be released to the public in the aftermath of the search. The affidavit’s release, which has been requested by a number of news outlets, would likely reveal details about the circumstances of the investigation, including why law enforcement sought a search warrant for Trump’s Florida home and the evidence that gave them probable cause to do so. The judge seemed to strike a compromise on Thursday between the wishes of the news outlets and the Justice Department, asking DOJ to submit the proposed redactions by noon Aug. 25. He subsequently signed off on the release of a handful of other documents to which the Justice Department had given its blessing earlier this week, including the warrant's cover sheet, which outlined three possible crimes: willful retention of national defense information, concealment or removal of government records and obstruction of federal investigation. On Monday, the Justice Department asked the Florida judge not to release the affidavit, arguing in court filings that certain contents of the affidavit could “alter the investigation’s trajectory, reveal ongoing and future investigative efforts, and undermine agents’ ability to collect evidence or obtain truthful testimony.” The agency also warned that the release of the documents could have “devastating consequences” for the “reputations and rights” of the individuals described therein. Meanwhile, Trump earlier this week called for the release of the affidavit in the “interest of TRANSPARENCY,” although he added in the post on his social media platform that there is no way to justify the “RAID of Mar-a-Lago.” Republican lawmakers have been adamant that the judge release the affidavit as well, continuing to point fingers at the Justice Department for what they say is a lack of transparency while tamping down earlier rebukes of the FBI after being quick to take the former president’s side when he first announced that the agency had searched his estate and claimed that the move was politically motivated. In the days following, talk of war escalated in some far-right circles and an armed man approached an FBI office in Ohio and exchanged gunfire with law enforcement, as the agency reported growing threats against its agents and offices.

Moscow Already 'Studying' Top-Secret Records From Trump Raid: Russian Media -Hosts on Russia's state-owned Russia-1 television channel said that officials in Moscow have already been "studying" top secret and other classified documents the FBI sought through a search warrant of former President Donald Trump's Mar-a-Lago resort home.The FBI, with the approval of Attorney General Merrick Garland, carried out a raid of Trump's Florida residence looking for top secret and sensitive compartmentalized information, as well as other classified documents, on Monday. The Washington Postreported on Thursday that records related to nuclear weapons were sought by the federal agents, but Trump described that reporting as a "hoax."Russia-1 reported on the raid in a segment shared to Twitter late Friday evening by Julia Davis, a columnist for The Daily Beast and the creator of the Russian Media Monitor. During the segment, state-run television host Evgeny Popov mentioned the reporting about nuclear weapons."Turns out that the investigation against Trump has to do with the disappearance of secret documents from the White House, related to the development of nuclear weapons by the U.S.," Popov said. "The FBI isn't saying what kinds of weapons, or what they found in Trump's estate. Obviously, if there were any important documents, they've been studying them in Moscow for a while." "What's the point of searching?" Popov then asked, suggesting that protecting the classified information was already a useless endeavor.

FBI warns of heightened threats as Hill Republicans demand more from Garland on Mar-a-Lago search - Law enforcement agencies are warning of “an increase in threats and acts of violence” directed at FBI personnel after agents executed a search warrant of former President Donald Trump’s home. Alongside the Department of Homeland Security, the bureau issued a joint intelligence bulletin on Friday describing an “unprecedented” number of such threats posed at government officials, POLITICO confirmed. The bulletin said the threats were “occurring primarily online and across multiple platforms,” and that some were specific in identifying proposed targets and tactics, as well as weaponry. The bulletin comes as Trump and his allies have attacked the FBI for what they say are political motivations and underhandedness in going into his Mar-a-Lago resort, in Florida, to retrieve what they have detailed as documents containing classified information. Among the accusations made, without evidence, have been that FBI agents planted documents and took orders from the Biden administration to smear the former president. Days after Trump’s home was searched on Aug. 8, a man who posted regularly on his social media site tried to breach the FBI’s Cincinnati field office in Ohio, armed with an AR-15 style rifle and a nail gun. He fled the scene before being killed in a standoff. The episode was referenced in the bulletin. Pro-Trump internet forums have erupted with violent threats in the days after the FBI search. Meanwhile, conservative media published the names of the two agents who signed the paperwork authorizing a search warrant of Trump’s estate. And the biographical information of the federal magistrate judge who signed the search warrant had to be wiped from a Florida court’s website because of threats. Some members of the Republican Party raised concerns about the incendiary rhetoric coming from others in the GOP and its potential to lead to violence. Reps. Paul Gosar (R-Ariz.), Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) and Lauren Boebert (R-Colo.) are among those who spoke of destroying or defunding the FBI. “It’s outrageous rhetoric,” Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan said on Sunday on ABC’s “This Week.” “It’s absurd and it’s dangerous. There are threats all over the place, and losing faith in our federal law enforcement officers and our justice system is a really serious problem for the country,” said Hogan, whose father was an FBI agent, as were other members of his family. Hogan’s comments were echoed by Gov. Asa Hutchinson of Arkansas, a Republican. “The GOP is gonna be the party of supporting law enforcement — law enforcement includes the FBI,” Hutchinson said on CNN. “We need to pull back on casting judgment on them.” Other elected Republicans on Sunday put the onus on Attorney General Merrick Garland to justify the necessity of the search of Trump’s residence last week. “He has a lot of questions to answer,” Rep. Mike Turner (R-Ohio), the top Republican on the House Intelligence Committee, said on CNN’s “State of the Union.”

Trump-allied lawyers pursued voting machine data in multiple states, records reveal - A team of computer experts directed by lawyers allied with President Donald Trump copied sensitive data from election systems in Georgia as part of a secretive, multistate effort to access voting equipment that was broader, more organized and more successful than previously reported, according to emails and other records obtained by The Washington Post. As they worked to overturn Trump’s 2020 election defeat, the lawyers asked a forensic data firm to access county election systems in at least three battleground states, according to the documents and interviews. The firm charged an upfront retainer fee for each job, which in one case was $26,000. Attorney Sidney Powell sent the team to Michigan to copy a rural county’s election data and later helped arrange for it to do the same in the Detroit area, according to the records. A Trump campaign attorney engaged the team to travel to Nevada. And the day after the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the Capitol the team was in southern Georgia, copying data from a Dominion voting system in rural Coffee County. The emails and other records were collected through a subpoena issued to the forensics firm, Atlanta-based SullivanStrickler, by plaintiffs in a long-running lawsuit in federal court over the security of Georgia’s voting systems. The documents provide the first confirmation that data from Georgia’s election system was copied. Indications of a breach there were first raised by plaintiffs in the case in February, and state officials have said they are investigating. “The breach is way beyond what we thought,” said David D. Cross, a lawyer for the plaintiffs, who include voting-security activists and Georgia voters. “The scope of it is mind-blowing.” A drumbeat of revelations about alleged security breaches in local elections offices has grown louder during the nearly two years since the 2020 election. There is growing concern among experts that officials sympathetic to Trump’s claims of vote-rigging could undermine election security in the name of protecting it. The federal government classifies voting systems as “critical infrastructure,” important to national security, and access to their software and other components is tightly regulated. In several instances since 2020, officials have taken machines out of service after their chains of custody were disrupted.

What happened to the 10 House Republicans who voted to impeach Trump? --It’s been more than a year since the House of Representatives impeached then-President Trump for his role in the Jan. 6 attack. Ten House Republicans voted to impeach him, a remarkably high number (five House Democrats voted to impeach Bill Clinton in 1998). After a trial, the Senate acquitted Trump. But Trump critics in the Republican Party tend not to stay in office for very long.Four have retired; six are running or are likely to run for reelection, all of them facing primary challengers because of their impeachment vote — including some endorsed by Trump. Those primaries are happening this summer, and we’ll update this with results. [Update: So far at least four have lost their re-elections.] Here’s what happened to the 10 Republicans who voted to impeach the former president on his way out the door.

During Both Obama and Trump Administrations, the Justice Department Has Looked the Other Way at Crimes by the Powerful --By Pam and Russ Martens: August 15, 2022 ~ Last Thursday evening, Justice Department Attorney General, Merrick Garland, held a brief press conference to announce that he had asked a federal court to unseal the search warrant and inventory receipts filed in connection with the FBI’s search of Donald Trump’s Palm Beach oceanfront home and beach resort, Mar-a- Lago. As part of his statement to the press, Garland said this:“Faithful adherence to the rule of law is the bedrock principle of the Justice Department and of our democracy. Upholding the rule of law means applying the rule of law evenly, without fear or favor.”Unfortunately, the vast majority of Americans believe there is one set of laws for the rich and powerful and another set of laws for average Americans. According to a Gallup poll released on July 5, only 14 percent of Americans had “a great deal” or “quite a lot” of confidence in the U.S. criminal justice system. That is the lowest percentage of confidence in the criminal justice system in 28 years according to Gallup data. The Justice Department’s credibility was dealt an irreparable blow during the Obama administration for its hands off attitude toward prosecuting crimes by Wall Street titans. The crisis of confidence deepened further during the Trump circus at the Department of Justice. Below are some of the moments that stand out in our memory as to when we, personally, lost trust in the Justice Department. On January 22, 2013 – four months after the Occupy Wall Street protest march to the New York Fed – “The Untouchables” aired on the PBS program “Frontline.” The program sought to uncover an answer as to why, four years after the greatest swindles in Wall Street history, no senior executives on Wall Street had been indicted.Jeff Connaughton, chief of staff to former Senator Ted Kaufman, states during the program: “You’re telling me that not one banker, not one executive on Wall Street, not one player in this entire financial crisis committed provable fraud…I mean, I just don’t believe that.”Sitting at the helm of the U.S. Department of Justice at that time were Obama appointees Eric Holder as Attorney General, and Lanny Breuer, head of the Criminal Division. Both men came from the law firm, Covington & Burling, which had played a major role in four decades of coverups for Big Tobacco, according to a decision handed down by Federal court judge Gladys Kessler. Covington & Burling’s relationship with Big Tobacco went far beyond the typical attorney-client relationship. The firm set up front groups to hide payments and to hide the coordination of Big Tobacco in promulgating fake science on the health risks of second-hand smoke.

Foreigners Sold A Record Amount Of US Stocks In The Last 12 Months, China Dumped More USTs In June –(see graphs) According to the latest data on Treasury International Capital flows, foreigners sold $231.5BN in US stocks in the past 12 months - the biggest trailing-twelve-month sales on record... Foreigners have sold US stocks for 6 consecutive months (that is the 2nd longest stretch on record with only the non-stop selling in mid-2018/early-2019 was longer)... Aside for stocks, which saw $25.4BN in sales in June, every other asset class was bought: TSYs +$58.9BN, Agencies +$23.7BN, Corporate Bonds +$14.BN That is 6 consecutive months of corporate bond purchases and 16 of the past 18 months... Meanwhile US Treasuries were bought 7 of past 8 months and 11 of past 13, even though China dumped US Treasuries for the 7th straight month - the longest stretch of selling on record - to its lowest level of holdings since June 2010... Overall, Treasury holdings continue to trend lower as gold holdings increase... ...as de-dollarization continues.

China Moves to Delist Five State-Owned Companies from the New York Stock Exchange -By Pam and Russ Martens - This past Friday, five state-owned companies in China announced that they would apply this month to delist their shares from the New York Stock Exchange. The companies plan to continue trading in Hong Kong and mainland China. The companies include the large oil company Sinopec; China Life Insurance; Aluminum Corporation of China; PetroChina; and Sinopec Shanghai Petrochemical Company. It is highly likely (and long overdue) that more Chinese share delistings on U.S. exchanges will follow.For the past two decades, China has been stonewalling U.S. regulators over access to the work papers of auditors of publicly traded companies that are based in China but listed on U.S. stock exchanges. China takes the position that these audit work papers hold state secrets and it prohibits audit firms from releasing the documents directly to U.S. regulators, effectively flouting U.S. accounting law. This untenable situation finally forced the hand of Congress to take a stand in December of 2020. Both houses of Congress unanimously passed legislation called the Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act. The legislation requires that the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) identify companies that are listed in the U.S. which the Public Company Accounting Oversight Board (PCAOB) cannot “inspect or investigate completely because of a position taken by an authority in the foreign jurisdiction.”The legislation also requires the listed companies to provide documentation showing that they are not owned or controlled by a governmental entity. It also requires that the SEC prohibit the trading of the company’s stock in the U.S. if its audits cannot be inspected for three consecutive years.According to the U.S.-China Economics and Security Review Commission (USCC), an independent U.S. government agency, as of May 5, 2021, “there were 248 Chinese companies listed on these U.S. exchanges with a total market capitalization of $2.1 trillion.” Those exchanges are the New York Stock Exchange, Nasdaq, and NYSE American (formerly the American Stock Exchange).Some of the U.S. listed Chinese companies had their Initial Public Offerings (IPOs) underwritten by the biggest names on Wall Street, including JPMorgan Chase, Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, and Citigroup, among others. In addition, Wall Street underwriters always have counsel advising them on IPOs – typically from the biggest law firms in the U.S. Anger over what the Wall Street underwriters and their legal advisors have allowed to get listed on U.S. stock exchanges spilled out in public comment letters filed in connection with the SEC creating a rule to enforce the new legislation. Seven Senators, including John Kennedy, the sponsor of the Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act, sent a letter to SEC Chair Gary Gensler on July 28, noting the following:“…many of the largest U.S. underwriters have enthusiastically collected billions in fees and profits from these Chinese firms being listed on U.S. exchanges. Asset managers and index providers similarly profit by including Chinese firms in investment offerings and prominent indexes, including those used by the federal government’s Thrift Savings Plan. These American financial institutions do this, while seemingly looking the other way on transparency, the risk of CCP [Chinese Communist Party] influence, and CCP human rights violations, all to the detriment of the American retail investor and other U.S. interests.”The American Securities Association, which says its mission is to be “America’s Voice for Main Street Investors,” sent a public comment letter to the SEC on May 5. Below is an excerpt from the letter:

 Red states decry 'woke left' SEC proposal for ESG investing - West Virginia Attorney General Patrick Morrisey has signaled that he plans to take a page from his recent Supreme Court climate win to challenge the Securities and Exchange Commission’s proposed rule for funds that are marketed as socially and environmentally responsible.In formal comments filed yesterday with the SEC, 21 Republican state legal officers led by Morrisey argued that the agency is trying to transform itself from the federal overseer of securities “into the regulator of broader social ills.”And they say SEC’s move runs afoul of West Virginia v. EPA, the landmark Supreme Court decision that curbed the federal government’s authority to regulate carbon emissions from power plants.“The woke left is going full throttle in their mission to change every facet of American life … and erode our democratic institutions to suit their liberal agenda,” Morrisey said. “The Biden administration wants to radically transform the SEC and other agencies run by unelected bureaucrats and make them champions of climate change, regardless of what those agencies’ functions are — Biden is creating a federal bureaucracy to suit his agenda.”At issue is an SEC proposal that would require firms to prove that investments that purport to be green or socially aware live up to those claims (Climatewire, May 26).While the rule cannot be challenged in court until it is finalized, the letter from West Virginia and other states provides an early look at the claims opponents are likely to raise.Morrisey argued in the comment letter that the proposed SEC rule violates the “major questions” doctrine, which he said was “settled” in the Supreme Court’s June 30 decision in West Virginia. The high court’s conservative majority agreed with Morrisey and other parties in the case that the doctrine — which says Congress must speak clearly if it wants a federal agency to act on a matter of “vast economic and political significance” — precludes a broad EPA carbon rule like the Obama-era Clean Power Plan.The justices did not define what other issues might constitute a major question.Morrisey said in the comment letter yesterday that the West Virginia ruling confirms that Congress — “not a federal administrative agency — has the power to decide major issues of the day.”He pledged that West Virginia would “vigorously participate in the rulemaking process” and if necessary “go to court to defend against any regulatory overreach by the SEC or any other agency in the name of climate disclosures.”SEC’s proposed rule would add “onerous reporting requirements for investment funds with no rational justification,” Morrisey said.West Virginia was joined in the letter by attorneys general in Alabama, Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, Georgia, Idaho, Indiana, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Texas, Utah, Virginia and Wyoming.

Why Coinbase's balance sheet has massively inflated - by Frances Coppola - Coinbase recently filed its interim financial report. It makes pretty grim reading. A quarterly net loss of over $1bn, net cash drain of £4.6bn in 6 months, fair value losses of over 600k... To be sure, Coinbase is not on its knees yet. It still has $12bn of its own and customers' cash (both are on its balance sheet), and a whopping asset base. In fact its assets have increased - a lot. As have its liabilities. Coinbase's balance sheet is five times bigger than it was in December 2021. Here's Coinbase's balance sheet, as reported in its 10-Q filing. I've outlined the relevant items in red: There's a new asset called "customer crypto assets" worth some $88.45 bn, matched by a new liability called "crypto asset liabilities". This asset and its associated liability are by far the biggest items on Coinbase's balance sheet. Footnotes to the balance sheet describe these new items as "safeguarding assets" and "safeguarding liabilities". A note to the financial statements explains that as of June 2022, Coinbase has taken all customer assets on to its own balance sheet. It was already recording customer cash balances on its balance sheet, but now it is also recording customer crypto holdings. The size of the "safeguarding" liability is far too large for it to represent assets in Coinbase's custody service. It must include assets in ordinary wallets. So Coinbase is no longer simply hosting wallets and providing a platform for peer-to-peer transactions. It is taking custodial responsibility for every customer asset on its platform. But why this sudden change in the accounting treatment of customer crypto assets? Six months ago, they weren't even on its balance sheet.The explanation is in the same note: "The Company safeguards crypto assets for customers in digital wallets and portions of cryptographic keys necessary to access crypto assets on the Company’s platform. The Company safeguards these assets and/or keys and is obligated to safeguard them from loss, theft, or other misuse. The Company records Customer crypto assets as well as corresponding Customer crypto liabilities, in accordance with recently adopted guidance, SAB 121." So this is at the behest of the SEC. SAB 121 is a Staff Accounting Bulletin issued in March 2022. It's complex, technical and not easy to read. It's also very wide-ranging and has far-reaching implications not only for crypto exchanges like Coinbase, but for any company providing crypto-related services involving public blockchains. Yet it seems to have passed unnoticed by the crypto and financial press. How it slipped under the radar is a mystery. SAB 121 (footnote 3) defines "crypto assets" broadly: "the term “crypto-asset” refers to a digital asset that is issued and/or transferred using distributed ledger or blockchain technology using cryptographic techniques." That could mean anything on a blockchain. Crowe LLP's handy explainer lists four types of crypto asset it thinks will be affected by this change:

• Crypto assets used as a medium of exchange (for example, bitcoin)
• Stablecoins (for example, a digital asset that is backed 1:1 to the U.S. dollar)
• NFTs;
• Utility tokens

This list is not exhaustive. It would be unwise of a crypto company to think that because some asset doesn't strictly fall into any of the categories above, it wouldn't need to be treated in the same way. What defines whether assets fall under the scope of SAB 121 is not the nature of the assets, but the nature of the relationship with the customer. The SEC says platforms providing transaction services to crypto asset holders are responsible for protecting the platform user’s crypto-assets from loss or theft, and to this end, often maintain the keys needed to access the assets. This creates risks unique to crypto asset transaction services:

Voyager customer lost $1 million saved over 24 years and is one of many desperate to recoup funds - During a five-hour Chapter 11 bankruptcy hearing earlier this month for crypto firm Voyager Digital, a customer named Magnolia was the first user to step forward and speak about her experience.Magnolia, who only disclosed her first name, said she had over $1 million trapped on the platform, including $350,000 that was earmarked to pay for college for her children. She said it had taken her 24 years to save, and she had sacrificed spending time with her kids in order to build that nest egg."I do feel like we're paying the ultimate price for them being fiscally irresponsible," Magnolia said. "They had our trust, they had our money, and they did not run this company properly."Magnolia wanted to know why Voyager borrowed money instead of cutting costs when it knew things were going south. She also asked whether CEO Stephen Ehrlich was still getting paid and receiving a bonus.Magnolia is one of Voyager's 3.5 million customers, a group that's desperate for answers more than a month after the company suspended all tradingand, soon after, filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy. Voyager, once a popular lending platform, drew in retail investors by offering them up to double-digit annual returns in exchange for parking their tokens with Voyager.As the crypto market boomed last year, Voyager inked sports sponsorshipswith the NBA's Dallas Mavericks and owner Mark Cuban, Tampa Bay Buccaneers tight end Rob Gronkowski, NASCAR driver Landon Cassill and the National Women's Soccer League.While those names helped hype the service, they didn't change the risk that customers faced when they joined the platform. Their funds were unsecured.A crash in crypto prices in 2022, largely due to Federal Reserve rate hikes and investor rotation out of the riskiest assets, created a liquidity crisis for hedge funds and crypto sites with excess exposure to digital assets. Many of those firms defaulted on loans, creating a cascading effect that infected the broader industry and lenders like Voyager.

Bitcoin May Hit $10K As Price Slides Pre-FOMC Meeting -- A pricing analysis of bitcoin reveals that buyers are at a disadvantage. Price increased after a weaker opening and tested the session high of $24,448.40. However, it swiftly reversed course and tested the pivotal 21-day exponential moving average, where it is currently resting. The market action right now suggests that the bulls are running out of steam close to the higher levels and that the bears are clearing the way for more correction. The largest cryptocurrency’s 24-hour trading volume is $30,603,898,759, up more than 7%. BTC/USD, however, is currently reading at $23,422.79, a 1.85% daily decline. \ The longer the price remains below this level, the more powerful the selling pressure will be as BTC slips below the crucial support level of $23,500. Data from TradingView showed that BTC/USD fell by more than 2% every day and reached $23,325. Hours before the Federal Open Markets Committee (FOMC) was scheduled to release minutes from its most recent meeting, the pair, which had already started to exhibit indications of weakness, fell further as trading in US stocks got underway. BitStarz Player Lands $2,459,124 Record Win! Could you be next big winner? Despite not having a rate decision, the meeting was timed to reveal the Fed’s perspective on the upcoming rate adjustment scheduled in September. Michaël van de Poppe summarized in his latest Twitter update: “The important event tonight with the FOMC minutes, through which information can be received whether the FED is going to be hawkish or dovish. I don’t think it will have a massive impact, however, crypto tends to give it a ton of value and, therefore, lots of volatility.”

Celsius is heading for absolute zero by Frances Coppola - Yesterday, the failed crypto lender Celsius filed a monthy cash flowforecast and a statement of its assets and liabilities held in the form of cryptocurrency and stablecoins. They showed that the lender is deeply underwater and will completely run out of cash within two months. Today, Celsius presented an update regarding its chapter 11 bankruptcy plans. Reading this, you'd think it was a different company. Liquidation isn't on the agenda. No, they are talking about "reorganization" and and seeking debtor-in-possession (DIP) financing: DIP financing is a specialist form of finance for companies in chapter 11 bankruptcy to enable a company to continue operating. It usually takes the form of term loans. DIP loans are secured on the company's remaining assets and are typically senior over all other claims, so must be repaid before claims from existing creditors can be settled. Because DIP finance dilutes existing claims, the bankruptcy court must agree to it.In Celsius's case, the bankruptcy court will be advised by the Creditor Committee and the Ad Hoc Groups of custodial and withheld acccount creditors. These creditor representatives will want to be satisfied that enabling the company to continue operating will give them a better chance of recovery than putting it straight into liquidation. I don't know what they will make of the cash flow forecast and "Coin report" filed yesterday, but the figures in these documents make me extremely sceptical. I am struggling to see why the company isn't going straight into liquidation. First, the cash flow report. This is operational, not accounting, cash flow. In other words, it is the cash Celsius needs to meet its obligations day-to-day. Celsius has helpfully outlined liquidity in red to make it easy to read:Celsius is burning through its remaining cash at an extraordinary rate. As we might expect from a company that is unable to trade at the moment, total receipts are some distance adrift of total operating disbursements, so operating cash flow is significantly negative. But it's not operating cash flow that is burning through Celsius's cash. It is unspecified "capital expenditures", which are swallowing cash at a rate of $20-30m per month. What on earth is Celsius purchasing that costs that much, why is it incurring sales taxes, shipping costs and customs duties, and above all - why is it still doing it? Also, why is the cost of "restructuring activities" going to increase by nearly $10m in October? If I were on those creditor committees, I'd want to know where my money is going. If Celsius carries on splashing the cash at this rate, it will run out of money within two months. The forecast for October is for a liquidity shortfall of nearly $34m. Since this means being unable to meet its obligations as they fall due, it is actual bankruptcy, rather than simply balance sheet insolvency. Presumably Celsius is soliciting DIP finance to relieve the liquidity shortfall. But to me, this looks like throwing good money after bad. What, exactly, about Celsius's financials indicates that lending it more money will achieve a better recovery for its existing creditors?The Coin report is no help. It shows that the company's total coin liabilities exceed its total coin assets by over $2.8m at fair value.

Why hackers are able to steal billions of dollars worth of cryptocurrency - In two incidents over the past week, hackers pilfered a total of nearly $200 million in cryptocurrency, piling on to a record year of $2 billion in industry losses to internet thieves and scammers. The Treasury Department also sanctioned an anonymization service this week for its alleged role in laundering billions in cryptocurrency. The agency cited hackers’ use of Tornado Cash to disguise proceeds from the largest known crypto hack to date, March’s heist of $620 million. So why are these big-ticket crypto hacks happening? There’s no one answer, and there’s plenty of reason to think they’ll keep occurring. The first and shortest major answer might sound snarky. It’s Willie Sutton’s answer to why he robbed banks: “It’s where the money is.” The covid-19 pandemic saw a rise in cyberattacks as well as the proliferation of cryptocurrency wallets, observed Brenda Sharton,global chair of the privacy and security practice at the Dechert law firm. Those two phenomena go hand-in-hand, she told me.One specific variety of cryptocurrency tech has proven a particularly ripe target — and increasingly so: cross-chain bridges. My colleague Steven Zeitchik explains: “A blockchain bridge allows consumers to swap crypto from one blockchain to another — say, from bitcoin to ethereum — making it vulnerable on what security experts call ‘both sides,’ weaknesses on either blockchain.”Blockchain analytics company Chainalysis estimated last week that such attacks account for 69 percent of funds hackers have stolen this year.

• Answer No. 2: It’s an industry maturity and demeanor thing. Crypto start-ups’ more established financial industry siblings, banks, invest deeply in cybersecurity. Bank of America spends more than $1 billion annually on cyberdefense, the company’s chief executive said last year. Over the course of hundreds of years, banks have learned to prioritize security of all kinds, Scott Carlson, head of blockchain and digital asset security at Kudelski Security, told me. What’s more, some cybersecurity companies are loath to get involved in the cryptocurrency sector, said Ryan Spanier, Carlson’s Kudelski Security teammate.They might consider crypto firms to be a fad, one that’s difficult to adapt existing protections for or an area of the economy that is bad for the environment. . Several crypto exchanges that have suffered major hacks declined interviews or didn’t answer requests for comment, but some directed me to lengthy lists of security improvements they’ve made in the aftermath.
• Answer No. 3: Crypto is the regulatory Wild West. Those traditional financial services firms? They have federal agency overlords — be they the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) or Financial Industry Regulatory Authority (FINRA) — that have made the sector one of the most strictly regulated when it comes to cybersecurity.Crypto organizations don’t fall neatly into any existing regulatory turf, and some maintain that’s why they’re getting hacked.“The reason first and foremost is that crypto exchanges, unlike U.S. financial firms, don’t have to meet any of the rigorous cybersecurity standards and requirements that the SEC and FINRA and the banking regulations have in place,” independent consultant John Reed Starktold me. “So you have no idea what sort of cybersecurity protections go on in these entities.”By their nature, the blockchain community prefers to be “lightly regulated because they want to free themselves from what they perceive as problems in the existing system,” Carlson said.It’s a hot subject on Capitol Hill, where bipartisan legislation would define who is responsible for overseeing the crypto industry and direct agencies to develop cybersecurity rules for digital assets like cryptocurrency. The bipartisan bill from Sens. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-N.Y.) and Cynthia M. Lummis (R-Wyo.) would grant oversight to the Commodity Future Futures Trading Commission, as opposed to the SEC, which has taken a hard stance against crypto abuses.But the focus on regulation is misplaced, Sharton said. The government can best help by putting crypto thieves in prison, she said. (In one peculiar case, a $500 Walmart gift card led law enforcement to the alleged culprits behind a considerable 2016 hack.)

FDIC calls out FTX US, other crypto firms over insurance claims -— The Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. issued five cease-and-desist letters on Friday telling five cryptocurrency-related companies to stop making false and misleading statements about the availability of deposit insurance for their customers. The FDIC announced Friday afternoon that it had directed five companies behind certain crypto websites — including FTX US, Cryptonews.com, Cryptosec.info, SmartAsset.com and FDICCrypto.com — to "take immediate corrective action to address false or misleading statements" concerning whether their customers' funds were insured by the federal agency. Under the Federal Deposit Insurance Act, the FDIC has the authority to prohibit use of the agency's name or logo to imply customer funds are government insured when they are not. Each of the letters — which were signed by FDIC assistant general counsel Seth Rosebrock — noted that the FDIC had the authority to assess civil money penalties as well. "Based upon evidence collected by the FDIC, each of these companies made false representations — including on their websites and social media accounts — stating or suggesting that certain crypto-related products are FDIC-insured or that stocks held in brokerage accounts are FDIC-insured," the agency said in a press release. "In one case, a company offering a so-called cryptocurrency also registered a domain name that suggests affiliation with or endorsement by the FDIC." The orders follow a similar one issued against Voyager, a cryptocurrency company that went bankrupt in July, after customers scrambled to understand what would happen to their dollars held by a partner bank after the crypto firm promised those deposits were FDIC-insured. The FDIC said the way the arrangement was presented to customers was misleading.

Toomey questions FDIC over 'Choke Point'-esque crackdown on banks and crypto --Sen. Pat Toomey, R-Pa., is pressing the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. on its stance toward banks involvement in cryptocurrency, questioning if the agency is "improperly" deterring banks from offering cryptocurrency services. In a letter obtained by American Banker to Martin Gruenberg, the acting chairman of the FDIC, Toomey, the ranking GOP member of the Senate Banking Committee, says that his office has received complaints that staff in the agency's Washington headquarters have urged FDIC regional offices to send letters to banks who've asked to dip their toes into offering some kind of crypto-related services, asking those banks to refrain from expanding their relationship with crypto-related companies. "Given the FDIC's involvement under your leadership in the Obama administration's notorious Operation Choke Point, which sought to coerce banks into denying services to legal yet politically disfavored businesses, it is important to better understand the actions the FDIC is now taking and the legal basis for them," Toomey said. In response to Toomey's letter, the FDIC said that asking institutions to delay or refrain from engaging in cryptocurrency-related activities are "necessary and appropriate" actions, "given the risks readily apparent in the crypto-asset markets.""The FDIC is acting consistent with longstanding legal authorities to ensure that banks engaging in crypto-related activities are doing so in a safe and sound way that protects consumers," the agency said. "This may involve the FDIC requesting that an institution delay initiating or refrain from expanding crypto-related activities until supervisory feedback is taken into account."The FDIC, along with the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, has asked banks to check in with the agency if the bank is currently or planning on pursuing any crypto-related activities. Banking agencies have lauded their cautious approach to crypto as digital assets experienced turbulence in markets earlier this year, saying that regulators' trepidation to letting banks get more involved with crypto helped insulate the traditional financial sector from that turmoil. Banking groups in Washington, meanwhile, are starting to push for a larger role for banks in the digital assets landscape.

Fed warns banks to check legality of crypto-related activity - The Federal Reserve is directing banks under its supervision to check in with the regulator before engaging in crypto-related activities to be sure those activities are legal. The guidance is similar to statements from the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. and the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, which instruct banks to consult with the regulatorbefore offering custody services or engaging in crypto-related activities. Banks and their entry into crypto-related activities is a topic that has been picking up more attention from lawmakers. Sen. Pat Toomey, R-Pa., sent a letter to the FDIC earlier Tuesdayquestioning the agency's communications with banks on the subject, and a group of progressive lawmakers led by Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., pushed the OCC to rescind Trump-era guidance about banks' involvement in the space. The move reflects a growing interest by banks to start mingling in the crypto space, and the reluctance of regulators in the Biden administration to let them. In feedback to the Treasury Department in its request for information, banking groups wrote that they'd like a larger role in the crypto market, while regulators have signaled a more cautious approach. The guidance applies to all banking organizations supervised by the Fed, including those with $10 billion or less in consolidated assets.In the supervisory letter, the Fed said that the crypto sector "presents potential opportunities to banking organizations." The regulator also lists novel technology, anti-money-laundering concerns and consumer protection as potential risks to banks' involvement in the crypto sector. The letter alludes to the issue of misrepresenting deposit insurance regarding crypto companies, a growing area of concern for regulators after the bankruptcy of the crypto firm Voyager. The FDIC has warned that banks could be harmed when cryptocurrency companies that offer digital assets as well as banks' deposit products overstate the protections of federal deposit insurance.

Fed eyes bank reserve risks that triggered end to QT last time -The Federal Reserve looks to be paying closer attention to a potential pinch-point that rankled dollar funding markets almost three years ago and could at some stage become a catalyst for ending early officials' plans to shrink the U.S. central bank's expanded balance sheet. Yields offered by money market funds — vehicles that invest in a variety of cashlike instruments ranging from Treasury bills to repurchase agreements, as well as a key facility provided by the Fed itself — are now "well above" rates offered by banks, monetary authority staff told policymakers at the latest meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee. That's creating scope for cash to flow into these types of funds and out of the banking sector, which could hasten the speed at which bank reserves dwindle to an uncomfortably low level. And that in turn could be a trigger for ending so-called quantitative tightening, as the balance-sheet reduction is known, just as it was back in 2019 when the Fed was last engaged in this process. The existence of the yield gap is, of course, widely known. Money market funds generally shift more or less in line with wholesale markets, but bank rates tend to be a bit more sticky. So with the Fed having raised rates at such a rapid clip — 2.25 percentage points since the start of this year — the potential differences are quite substantial. So the differential itself is not a surprise. But the fact that policymakers are being briefed on it underscores that this is an issue the Fed is keenly focused on as the size of its System Open Market Account holdings dwindle. Bank reserves were already declining even before the Fed started unwinding its nearly $9 trillion balance sheet, and it's not surprising that QT might exacerbate that trend, given money funds tend to be quicker to pass along interest rate hikes to investors than banks. Yet the consensus is growing that the extra liquidity QT is draining seems to be coming more out of bank reserves than out of money funds (and in turn out of the Fed reverse repo facility where more than $2 trillion of their assets are presently parked on a daily basis). For funding markets, the key issue is that a faster-than-anticipated decline in bank deposits means that reserves become more scarce. If that gets to a problematic point for banks — below the lowest comfortable level, in industry parlance — that can send some scrambling for funds, pushing overnight rates dramatically higher and creating discord within the market. And the upshot of that would likely be that the Fed needs to halt its QT program, much like it did last time around. The gap between what rates investors can get at banks and what money funds offer "will be huge for determining the path of System Open Market Account liabilities, and ultimate end date for QT, among other things," said Tim Wessel, a macro strategist at Deutsche Bank. "It has implications for how fast reserves will drain versus the reverse repo facility, and therefore, how long they can run QT, and how large RRP balances will be at the end of QT." Reserves parked at the Fed have declined to about $3.3 trillion after peaking at $4.3 trillion in early December.

Fed finalizes 'master accounts' guidance - The Federal Reserve Board has finalized its guidance for novel financial companies to access master accounts, which allow institutions to transfer money directly to other account holders in a network that underpins the global financial system.The move could encourage fintechs that struggled to get access to master accounts and have sought more clarity on the process. With the new guidance, special-purpose depository institutions such as Custodia and Kraken, which have applied for master accounts, might not need intermediary banks to access the payment rails. The finalized guidelines are "substantially similar" to the guidelines posted by the Fed Board in May 2021 and later in March 2022, the agency said. The guidelines will create a tiered review system whereby companies that don't have federal deposit insurance and aren't overseen by banking regulators will receive the greatest scrutiny, while firms with deposit insurance and enhanced supervision will receive the greatest degree of deference. Bank trade associations said in their public comments on the proposal that the Fed should include greater clarity about what kind of supervisory obligations might be placed on institutions that are granted master accounts under the revised guidelines.Federal Reserve Vice Chair Lael Brainard said that the final guidance would go a long way toward providing consistency and transparency around its master account granting process. "The new guidelines provide a consistent and transparent process to evaluate requests for Federal Reserve accounts and access to payment services in order to support a safe, inclusive, and innovative payment system," Lael Brainard, vice chair of the Fed Board, said in a press release Monday.

Wall Street's record fines over WhatsApp use were years in the making -Record fines that the world's biggest investment banks are expected to pay in the coming months reflect years of frustration among U.S. regulators that their investigations were being hampered by unmonitored messaging among bankers. Investigators at the Securities and Exchange Commission and Commodity Futures Trading Commission were repeatedly hindered by firms not archiving communications as required, according to people familiar with the matter. The watchdogs worried that missives on bankers' personal phones about cutting deals, trading and courting clients were being completely lost and would ultimately make it harder to look for wrongdoing. At the SEC, separate probes revealed a troubling dynamic: key conversations across finance were happening beyond the government's reach, according to one of the people. At the CFTC, similar concerns grew as officials probed whether banks were manipulating the interest rates swaps market and they found that many communications were happening outside of official channels, people said. The scrutiny intensified at the SEC after Chair Gary Gensler took over in April 2021. After investigating JPMorgan Chase over the lapses, the regulator opened an industrywide sweep across Wall Street to figure out how many business-related communications were missing. The crackdown is now expected to result in about 10 banks paying fines totaling around $2 billion, with lenders from Goldman Sachs Group to Barclays saying they expect comparable penalties. JPMorgan announced in December it would pay $200 million in penalties to the SEC and CFTC. That dwarfs the $15 million Morgan Stanley agreed in 2006 after being accused of similar lapses.

BankThink: CFPB's approach to regulations is taking away consumer choice | American Banker --In a recent blog post, Consumer Financial Protection Bureau Director Rohit Chopra wrote that the bureau is "seeking to move away from highly complicated rules that have long been a staple of consumer financial regulation and towards simpler and clearer rules."This follows similar announcements from Chopra in congressional testimony that the bureau is "dramatically increasing its issuance of guidance."Companies in the accounts receivable management industry believe that consumers and those providing services in the financial services marketplace deserve a seat at the table. Congress enacted various laws outlining how federal agencies, even those independent from the congressional appropriations process, must act when engaging in policymaking. Yet the CFPB is blatantly ignoring those mandates.Unresearched advisory opinions and interpretive rules that lack data-driven cost-benefit analysis skirt the required processes, and consumers will be harmed by the blind spots that come with an agency taking this approach.On top of that, the CFPB's focus on medical debt credit reporting this year without input from stakeholders in the healthcare industry will also ultimately harm patients by reducing access to care when providers take steps to mitigate their losses. It will also enrich health insurance companies by allowing them to legitimately deny more claims — all because the CFPB wouldn't hold discussions with industry stakeholders.The CFPB's refusal to go through a transparent process that allows industry stakeholders to be at the table providing responses and data for proposals is causing significant damage to consumers from unintended consequences. This could have been avoided if the bureau trusted community input.For example, the CFPB released an advisory opinion in June taking aim at debt collectors' use of payment transaction fees. The only outreach the CFPB engaged in before this sweeping action was taken was including a single line mentioning the debt collection industry in a vague request for information about so-called junk fees.As a result of the uninformed sweeping actions the CFPB took, industry participants will be forced to turn to more expensive alternatives and to limit consumer options for making payments. Creditors will likely increase the cost of credit and services because of the CFPB's actions.The bureau did not consider or analyze any of these factors, and there was no thought given to how small businesses may be affected by its actions.

FDIC threatens to punish banks that impose repeat NSF fees — The Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. warned banks that it will consider enforcement actions if the banks it supervises are repeatedly charging "nonsufficient-funds" fees for the same transaction. On Thursday, the FDIC issued guidelines that said banks that charge multiple NSF fees on the same unpaid transaction could be violating the Federal Trade Commission Act, which prohibits "unfair or deceptive acts or practices." While NSF fees are similar to overdraft fees, they are somewhat different. Overdraft fees, which consumers have to "opt in" to, are levied when banks cover purchases for customers when they don't have enough in their account, while NSF fees are charged when a check bounces or a debit card purchase is declined. "During consumer compliance examinations, the FDIC has identified violations of law when financial institutions charged multiple NSF fees for the re-presentment of unpaid transactions," the agency said. "The FDIC found that some disclosures provided to customers did not fully or clearly describe the institution's re-presentment practice, including not explaining that the same unpaid transaction might result in multiple NSF fees if an item was presented more than once."

 Emails uncovered in Trident redlining probe show proof of intent -- A senior loan officer posing with colleagues in front of a Confederate flag. Loan officers exchanging company emails proclaiming: "Proud to be White." Mortgage officers swapping racist images and racial slurs while referring to some Philadelphia neighborhoods as "the hood," or "ghetto." Modern-day redlining takes many forms and — in the eyes of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau and the Department of Justice — emails and photos exchanged by mortgage loan officers are seen as proof, along with key lending statistics, of redlining and discrimination. Emails uncovered by the Department of Justice and Consumer Financial Protection Bureau in its probe of nonbank mortgage originator Trident went a long way to demonstrate discriminatory intent, and signal a growing tactic in the bureau's anti-redlining crackdown.The emails and photos were exchanged by loan officers at Trident Mortgage, a longtime mortgage lender in Philadelphia owned by Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway. Berkshire agreed to pay $24 million last month to settle charges that Trident avoided making home loans in three metro areas: Philadelphia, Camden, New Jersey, and Wilmington, Delaware.The settlement with Trident is part of a flurry of exams and investigations that CFPB Director Rohit Chopra has launched since January focused on fair lending and redlining by banks and mortgage lenders, lawyers said. The CFPB often requests documents such as emails as part of routine lending exams. But emails can provide a smoking-gun for regulators. "There's a lot of redlining exams of mortgage lenders going on around the country and if a lender is asked by an examiner to produce emails, they should not take it lightly," said Daniella Casseres, a partner and head of the mortgage regulatory group at Mitchell Sandler. Ken Thomas, a longtime banking consultant and the president of Community Development Fund Advisors, said mortgage lenders should be held accountable — as banks are — for specific lending requirements in minority areas under the Community Reinvestment Act. "The crackdown has begun in both CRA and fair lending, and it is in full gear now," Thomas said. The CFPB said it is working with its government partners to combat illegal redlining by mortgage lenders. "As part of that effort, the bureau reviews bank and nonbank communications for employee statements that reflect discriminatory content, including emails," a CFPB spokesman said. Though Trident ceased originating loans in 2020, its lending operations, former employees and office locations were taken over by Prosperity Home Mortgage, a separate but affiliated mortgage lender, whose parent company, HomeServices of America, is also a subsidiary of Berkshire. During the financial crisis, nonbank mortgage lenders were sometimes compared to the whack-a-mole carnival game because they would go out of business after being hit with state or federal regulatory enforcement actions only to resurface under a new name with many of the same personnel. In Trident's case, the company rebranded to become Prosperity Home Mortgage, which "employs or offered employment to almost all of Trident's former employees, took over Trident's offices … and continues, without interruption, to provide mortgage services to customers in the same manner that Trident provided mortgage services," according to the July consent order.

 MBA Survey: "Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Decreases to 0.74% in July" - Note: This is as of July 31st. From the MBA: Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Decreases to 0.74% in July The Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) monthly Loan Monitoring Survey revealed that the total number of loans now in forbearance decreased by 7 basis points from 0.81% of servicers’ portfolio volume in the prior month to 0.74% as of July 31, 2022. According to MBA’s estimate,370,000 homeowners are in forbearance plans.The share of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac loans in forbearance decreased 1 basis point to 0.34%. Ginnie Mae loans in forbearance remained the same relative to the previous month at 1.26%, and the forbearance share for portfolio loans and private-label securities (PLS) declined 34 basis points to 1.34%.“July continued the ongoing trend in recent months of most of the forbearance exits coming from borrowers with portfolio loans and private label security loans,” said Marina Walsh, CMB, MBA’s Vice President of Industry Analysis. “There has been very little change in the forbearance rate for Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and Ginnie Mae loans during the past three months, perhaps indicating that we have reached a floor, with loans entering forbearance about equal to loans exiting forbearance for these loan types.”This graph shows the percent of portfolio in forbearance by investor type over time.The share of forbearance plans is decreasing, and, at the end of July, there were about 370,000 homeowners in forbearance plans.

400 Square Foot Nantucket Cottages Are Selling For Millions -Just in case you were wondering whether or not the real estate market is still mired in a bubble, just remember there are 350 square foot cottages in Nantucket that are selling for millions of dollars.Several cottages in the area were assessed at $10,000 per square foot, according to the Wall Street Journal. It makes Nantucket some of the "most expensive real estate in the world," according to the report. Henry Sanford, who has owned property in Nantucket for decades, said: “You can’t make sense of it mathematically. I don’t even know anywhere else in the world where you can find that.”About 25 cottages on Old North Wharf have become "trophy properties", according to the report, highly sought after by sailing enthusiasts and wealthy homeowners. Each cottage comes with its own boat slip and their owners include people like Google CEO Eric Schmidt and his wife, Wendy Schmidt, billionaire businessman Charles Johnson, and Charles Schwab.The Old North Wharf properties are generally purchased for their private waterfront access on an island with "only a limited number of docks", the report says. Few people rarely sleep in the them. They are part of a 99 year old cooperative that is responsible for common areas, like landscaping, the gravel road, parking lot and weekend security. Co-op president Christopher Quick told WSJ: “It’s a pretty private little place. A lot of people use them as a little getaway from the madness. They’re all sort of playhouses.” The co-op also manages three deep water docks, which also go for millions each. One sold for $4.75 million in 2016 while others sold for $2.1 million in 2002 and 2003.

Housing affordability: at or near the worst this Millennium The NAR calculates a monthly “housing affordability index,” which estimates the median mortgage payment for the median priced existing home based on an estimate of median household income. For June that came in at 98.5: Not only has affordability deteriorated sharply this year, but the June reading was the lowest in over 20 years, i.e., even worse than at the peak of the housing bubble: [note above graph stops in May]. From time to time I have looked at other measures of housing affordability, by calculating separately for down payments and monthly mortgage payments, for different housing indexes, and making use of the more timely data on average hourly wages. I last did this in April and May. Given the NAR’s new 20 year record low in June, let’s take another updated look. The first graph below compares 4 measures of house prices: the FHFA purchase index (blue), the Case Shiller national index (red), the Census Bureau’s measure of median prices for new houses (gold), and the NAR’s measure of median prices for existing homes (for the last year only)(purple). The best way to get to the “real” inflation adjusted cost of housing would be to divide by median household income, but since that is only officially calculated once a year, a good monthly proxy is average hourly wages, which is what I use below. All 4 measures are normed to 100 as of January 2006, at or close to the peak of the housing bubble for all of them: Although the data is compressed, all 4 exceeded their bubble peaks as of May (the last data for FHFA (up 8.9% compared with January 2006) and Case Shiller (up 1.7%)). For existing homes that continued in June (up 6.5%), while for new homes there was a slight decline (down -1.7% compared with an increase of 9.1% in May). The Census Bureau also publishes quarterly updates on all home prices, and in Q2 of this year house prices deflated by average hourly wages were up 7.2% compared with their bubble peak: The story remains a little different with mortgage rates. In 2006, they got as high as 6.8% in July. By contrast, the most recent weekly update pegs a 30 year fixed rate mortgage at 5.22% (the highest since 2009); at their recent peak in late June the rate was 5.81%: Since on average “real” house prices are about 5% higher than they were at their peak in 2006, let’s compare a $250,000 mortgage then and a $262,500 mortgage now at the prevailing mortgage rates. Here’s the monthly payment for each: The bottom line is that the average monthly mortgage payment at its June peak was a little over 95% in real, wage-adjusted terms, of what it was at the peak of the bubble. As of last week, it was still over 90%. When I last examined this in April, I wrote that: “I do not expect prices and mortgage rate to continue to rise together, as they did up until the peak of the bubble [because lending was completely reckless then]…. So if mortgage rates increase, I expect sales to tumble, followed in pretty quick succession by prices.” We have seen prices of new homes decline. We haven’t seen that for existing homes yet, because while *new* inventory has been increasing to levels only a little below that of 2019 (red, right scale), *total* inventory (blue, left scale) remains well below its 2019 and 2020 levels: But I still expect the turn to come very shortly. Let me close by updating one of my favorite housing graphs, comparing the YoY change in mortgage rates, (inverted, *10 for scale) with the YoY% change in housing permits and starts: The YoY change in mortgage interest rates this year was only matched by the 1994 change. In response, in 1995 housing permits were down -10% YoY, and 15% from peak to trough. But as of June of this year, permits were still slightly *higher* on a YoY basis. In an update in May, I wrote as to a 10% decline in new housing that “The question, of course, is a 10% YoY decline from where. From the recent 1.9M high, the 1.6M low last summer, or somewhere in between? If the decline is 15%, as in 1994, that would take us back down to 1.7M permits…. I suspect it will be worse. And that would almost certainly have enough impact on the economy next year to put us close to if not in a recession, all by itself.” And in the June and July reports for May and June, permits were indeed slightly below 1.7M both times. As the graph below shows, permits in the Third Quarter of last year averaged a little under 1.7M units annualized: A 10% decline from that would be about 1.5M units annualized.

 Home sales fell nearly 6% in July as housing market slides into a recession -Sales of previously owned homes fell nearly 6% in July compared with June, according to a monthly report from the National Association of Realtors. The sales count declined to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 4.81 million units, the group added. It is the slowest sales pace since November 2015, with the exception of a brief plunge at the beginning of the Covid pandemic. Sales dropped about 20% from the same month a year ago. "In terms of economic impact we are surely in a housing recession because builders are not building," said Lawrence Yun, chief economist for the Realtors. "However, are homeowners in a recession? Absolutely not. Homeowners are still very comfortable financially." The July sales figures are based on closings, so the contracts were likely signed in May and June. Mortgage rates spiked higher in June, with the average rate on the 30-year fixed loan crossing 6%, according to Mortgage News Daily. It then settled back into the high 5% range.. That rate started this year around 3%, so the hit to affordability in June was hard, especially coupled with soaring inflation. Homebuyers are also still contending with tight supply. There were 1.31 million homes for sale at the end of July, unchanged from July 2021. At the current sales pace, that represents a 3.3-month supply. While demand is falling off due to weaker affordability, prices remain stubbornly high. The median price of a home sold in July was $403,800, an increase of 10.8% year over year. Price gains are now moderating, though, as this is the smallest annual rise since July 2020. "The median home sales price continued to climb, but at a slower pace for the fifth consecutive month, shining a light on how downshifting buyer demand is moving the housing market back toward a more normal pace of activity," said Danielle Hale, chief economist at Realtor.com. "A look at active inventory trends shows that home listings were nearly twice as likely to have had a price cut in July 2022 compared to one year ago." Sales activity continues to be stronger on the higher end of the market, although that too is fading fast. There is simply more supply available on the top tiers. Sales of homes priced between $100,000 and $250,000 were 31% lower compared with the year before, while sales of homes priced between $750,000 and $1 million were down 8%. Sales of homes priced above $1 million fell 13% from a year ago. First-time buyers represented just 29% of buyers in July. Historically they usually make up about 40% of sales, but they are clearly struggling the most with affordability. High rents are also making it harder for them to save for a down payment.

NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 4.81 million SAAR in July - From the NAR: Existing-Home Sales Retreated 5.9% in July - Existing-home sales sagged for the sixth straight month in July, according to the National Association of REALTORS®. All four major U.S. regions recorded month-over-month and year-over-year sales declines.Total existing-home sales, completed transactions that include single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, slipped 5.9% from June to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.81 million in July. Year-over-year, sales fell 20.2% (6.03 million in July 2021)....Total housing inventory registered at the end of July was 1,310,000 units, an increase of 4.8% from June and unchanged from the previous year. Unsold inventory sits at a 3.3-month supply at the current sales pace, up from 2.9 months in June and 2.6 months in July 2021. This graph shows existing home sales, on a Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) basis since 1993.Sales in July (4.81 million SAAR) were down 5.9% from the previous month and were 20.2% below the July 2021 sales rate.The second graph shows nationwide inventory for existing homes.According to the NAR, inventory increased to 1.31 million in July from 1.25 million in June. Headline inventory is not seasonally adjusted, and inventory usually decreases to the seasonal lows in December and January, and peaks in mid-to-late summer.The last graph shows the year-over-year (YoY) change in reported existing home inventory and months-of-supply. Since inventory is not seasonally adjusted, it really helps to look at the YoY change. Note: Months-of-supply is based on the seasonally adjusted sales and not seasonally adjusted inventory. Inventory was unchanged year-over-year (blue) in July compared to July 2021. Months of supply (red) increased to 3.3 months in July from 2.9 months in June.This was below the consensus forecast.

"We're Witnessing A Housing Recession": Existing Home Sales Crater 20% In July As Affordability Collapses - Another month, another plunge in housing.Hot on the heels of the latest catastrophic homebuilder sentiment print and plunging single-family starts and permits, analysts expected existing home sales to accelerate their recent decline with a 4.9% MoM drop in Julye. They were right in direction but severely wrong in magnitude as existing home sales tumbled tumbled 5.9% MoM in June. That is the 6h straight month of existing home sales declines - the longest stretch since 2013 - pulling home sales down a stunning 20.2% YoY. From the NAR: "The ongoing sales decline reflects the impact of the mortgage rate peak of 6% in early June," said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun."Home sales may soon stabilize since mortgage rates have fallen to near 5%, thereby giving an additional boost of purchasing power to home buyers."The collapsing housing market means the SAAR is now below the full year pace of 2012 - one decade ago. Interestingly, despite the broad collapse in the market, properties typically remained on the market for 14 days in July, the same as June and down from 16 days in May and 17 days in July 2021. The 14 days on market are the fewest since NAR began tracking it in May 2011. Eighty-two percent of homes sold in July 2022 were on the market for less than a month.In other words, the market is frozen, but inventory remains at record lows!"We're witnessing a housing recession in terms of declining home sales and home building," Yun said. "However, it's not a recession in home prices. Inventory remains tight and prices continue to rise nationally with nearly 40% of homes still commanding the full list price."Finally, there is some good news - the number of homes for sale rose for the first time in three years on an annual basis to 1.31 million, up from 1.26 in June and the highest since September. At the current sales pace it would take 3.3 months to sell all the homes on the market, marking the fifth straight rise in months’ supply. Despite hopes that prices would start to roll over - helping with affordability - the median selling price rose 10.8% from a year earlier to a near-record $403,800. First-time buyers accounted for 29% of US sales last month, up from 30% in May.

“Housing Recession”: Sales Plunge to Lockdown Levels, Active Listings Surge, Prices Begin to Dip as Price Reductions Spike, Investors Pull Back - by Wolf Richter - Inventory and supply of previously-owned homes of all types – single-family houses, condos, co-ops, and townhouses – surged, and sales plunged, amid sky-high prices that have been made impossible by 5%-plus holy-moly mortgage rates. And so the red-hot housing market turns into a “housing recession,” as the National Association of Realtors called it today, after the National Association of Home Builders had already called it that on Monday. Sales plunged by 5.9% in July from June, the sixth month in a row of month-to-month declines, and by 20% from a year ago, the 12th month in a row of year-over-year declines, based on the seasonally adjusted annual rate of sales (historic data via YCharts): Sales of single-family houses plunged by 19% year-over-year, and sales of condos and co-ops plunged by 30%, according to the National Association of Realtors in its report. The seasonally adjusted annual rate of sales in July, at 4.81 million homes, was just a hair above the lockdown-June 2020 rate. Beyond the lockdown months of April-June 2020, it was the lowest sales rate since 2014. Compared to peak sales in October 2020, sales have collapsed by 29% (historic data via YCharts): Sales dropped in all regions on a year-over-year basis: Sales dropped in all price ranges but dropped the most at the low end and at the very high end (over $1 million) for the first time in this cycle. The drop at the high end is in part related to plunge in sales in the most expensive coastal markets in California, such as the San Francisco Bay Area (-37%), and Southern California (-37%), according to the California Association of Realtors.“We’re witnessing a housing recession in terms of declining home sales and home building. However, it’s not a recession in home prices,” the NAR report said. The fact that sales are plunging like this is an indication that sellers and buyers are too far apart on price, that buyers moseyed away from these sky-high prices, and these buyers are still out there, but a lot lower, while many sellers are still hanging on to their illusions, and deals aren’t happening. Sellers just pull their property off the market after a few weeks to wait for a better day. But some sellers are getting the message, and price cuts have been spiking. In July, the number of sellers that reduced prices of their properties on the market spiked by 31% from June, and more than doubled (+109%) from July last year, according to data from realtor.com. If pricing is realistic, a sale will happen, but pricing too often is not realistic yet, as documented by the plunge in sales:

More Analysis on July Existing Home Sales --Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 4.81 million SAAR in July. Excerpt: Sales in July (4.81 million SAAR) were down 5.9% from the previous month and were 20.2% below the July 2021 sales rate. Sales are now below pre-pandemic levels and, excluding the pandemic decline, sales are the lowest level since 2014. The third graph shows existing home sales for each month, Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA), for a few selected periods. Black and light Purple are the maximum sales per month during the bubble (2005) and the minimum sales during the bust (2008 - 2011). The most recent four years are shown (2019 through 2022). Sales NSA in July (453,000) were 22.4% below sales in July 2021 (584,000). Sales NSA year-to-date are down 10.3% compared to the same period in 2021. This decrease, NSA, was similar to change in the markets I track each month. Existing home sales are reported when the transaction closes. Sales in July were mostly for contracts signed in June and July. Recent data shows a significant slowdown in activity starting in May and decelerating further in June. My sense is contracts for sales really declined in June, and that will show up as closed sales in July and August - so we should expect a further decline in existing home sales next month.

Slowdown in Showings Suggests a Further Decline in Existing Home Sales in August - Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Slowdown in Showings Suggests a Further Decline in Existing Home Sales in August. A brief excerpt: The following data is courtesy of David Arbit, Director of Research at the Minneapolis Area REALTORS® and NorthstarMLS (posted with permission). Here is a link to their data.This graph shows the 7-day average showings for the Twin Cities area for 2019, 2020, 2021, and 2022. The 7-day average showings (red) are currently off 22% from 2019....In the existing home sales report for July released yesterday, closed sales, not seasonally adjusted (NSA) were down 22.4% year-over-year. July sales were mostly for contracts signed in May and June. May showings were only down about 13% year-over-year.This slowdown in showings suggests further declines in closed sales in August - since August sales will be mostly for contracts signed in June and July when showings were down sharply. This early data for August might suggest that September closed sales will see a similar year-over-year decline as in August.There is much more in the article.

Housing Inventory August 15th Update: Up 30.3% Year-over-year --Inventory is still increasing, but the inventory build has slowed somewhat over the last several weeks. Still, inventory is increasing faster than in 2019 at this time of year (both in percentage terms and in total inventory added). Here are the same week inventory changes for the last four years: Inventory bottomed seasonally at the beginning of March 2022 and is now up 128% since then. More than double! Altos reports inventory is up 30.3% year-over-year and is now 25.8% above the peak last year. This inventory graph is courtesy of Altos Research. As of August 12th, inventory was at 560 thousand (7-day average), compared to 554 thousand the prior week. Inventory was up 1.2% from the previous week. Inventory is still historically low. Compared to the same week in 2021, inventory is up 30.3% from 422 thousand, however compared to the same week in 2020 inventory is down 8.6% from 602 thousand. Compared to 3 years ago, inventory is down 43.0% from 966 thousand.Here are the inventory milestones I’m watching for with the Altos data:
1. The seasonal bottom (happened on March 4th for Altos) ✅
2. Inventory up year-over-year (happened on May 13th for Altos) ✅
3. Inventory up compared to two years ago (currently down 8.6% according to Altos)
4. Inventory up compared to 2019 (currently down 43.0%).
>Here is a graph of the inventory change vs 2021, 2020 (milestone 3 above) and 2019 (milestone 4).The blue line is the year-over-year data, the red line is compared to two years ago, and dashed purple is compared to 2019.Two years ago (in 2020) inventory was declining all year, so the two-year comparison will get easier all year. Based on the recent increases in inventory, my current estimate is inventory will be up compared to 2020 in September of this year, and it is possible inventory will be back to 2019 levels in the first half of 2023. However, if inventory growth stalls, then it might take much longer to reach normal inventory levels..Mike Simonsen discusses this data regularly on Youtube.

Housing Starts Decreased to 1.446 million Annual Rate in July =- From the Census Bureau: Permits, Starts and Completions - Privately‐owned housing starts in July were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,446,000. This is 9.6 percent below the revised June estimate of 1,599,000 and is 8.1 percent below the July 2021 rate of 1,573,000. Single‐family housing starts in July were at a rate of 916,000; this is 10.1 percent below the revised June figure of 1,019,000. The July rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 514,000.Privately‐owned housing units authorized by building permits in July were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,674,000. This is 1.3 percent below the revised June rate of 1,696,000, but is 1.1 percent above the July 2021 rate of 1,655,000. Single‐family authorizations in July were at a rate of 928,000; this is 4.3 percent below the revised June figure of 970,000. Authorizations of units in buildings with five units or more were at a rate of 693,000 in July. The first graph shows single and multi-family housing starts for the last several years. Multi-family starts (blue, 2+ units) decreased in July compared to June. Multi-family starts were up 18.0% year-over-year in July. Single-family starts (red) decreased in July and were down 18.5% year-over-year.The second graph shows single and multi-family housing starts since 1968.This shows the huge collapse following the housing bubble, and then the eventual recovery.Total housing starts in July were below expectations, however, starts in May and June were revised up slightly, combined.

July Housing Starts: Units Under Construction Declined Slightly --Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: July Housing Starts: Units Under Construction Declined Slightly Excerpt: The fourth graph shows housing starts under construction, Seasonally Adjusted (SA).Red is single family units. Currently there are 816 thousand single family units under construction (SA). This is just below the previous three months, and 12 thousand below the peak in April and May. Single family units under construction have peaked since single family starts are now declining. The reason there are so many homes under construction is probably due to supply constraints.Blue is for 2+ units. Currently there are 862 thousand multi-family units under construction. This is the highest level since March 1974! For multi-family, construction delays are probably also a factor. The completion of these units should help with rent pressure.Combined, there are 1.678 million units under construction. This is just below the all-time record set last month of 1.680 million units that were under construction.There is much more in the post. You can subscribe at https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/ (Most content is available for free, so please subscribe).

NAHB: Builder Confidence Turns Slightly Negative in August --The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) reported the housing market index (HMI) was at 49, down from 55 in July. Any number below 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as poor than good. From the NAHB: Builder Confidence Underwater After Falling for Eighth Consecutive Month - Builder confidence fell for the eighth straight month in August as elevated interest rates, ongoing supply chain problems and high home prices continue to exacerbate housing affordability challenges. In another sign that a declining housing market has failed to bottom out, builder confidence in the market for newly built single-family homes fell six points in August to 49, marking the first time since May 2020 that the index fell below the key break-even measure of 50, according to the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) released today.“Ongoing growth in construction costs and high mortgage rates continue to weaken market sentiment for single-family home builders,” “And in a troubling sign that consumers are now sitting on the sidelines due to higher housing costs, the August buyer traffic number in our builder survey was 32, the lowest level since April 2014 with the exception of the spring of 2020 when the pandemic first hit.”“Tighter monetary policy from the Federal Reserve and persistently elevated construction costs have brought on a housing recession,” “The total volume of single-family starts will post a decline in 2022, the first such decrease since 2011. However, as signs grow that the rate of inflation is near peaking, long-term interest rates have stabilized, which will provide some stability for the demand-side of the market in the coming months.” Roughly one-in-five (19%) home builders in the HMI survey reported reducing prices in the past month to increase sales or limit cancellations. The median price reduction was 5% for those reporting using such incentives. Meanwhile, 69% of builders reported higher interest rates as the reason behind falling housing demand, the top impact cited in the survey....All three HMI components posted declines in August and each fell to their lowest level since May 2020. Current sales conditions dropped seven points to 57, sales expectations in the next six months declined two points to 47 and traffic of prospective buyers fell five points to 32.Looking at the three-month moving averages for regional HMI scores, the Northeast fell nine points to 56, the Midwest dropped three points to 49, the South fell seven points to 63 and the West posted an 11-point decline to 51. This graph shows the NAHB index since Jan 1985.This was well below the consensus forecast, and just below 50. The "traffic of prospective buyers" is now well below breakeven at 32 (below 50).

“Housing Recession”: NAHB. Homebuilders Cut Prices as Traffic of Prospective New-House Buyers Plunges, Cancellations Spike - By Wolf Richter --“Tighter monetary policy from the Federal Reserve and persistently elevated construction costs have brought on a housing recession,” said National Association of Home Builders Chief Economist Robert Dietz. The confidence of builders of single-family houses, after the second-biggest plunge in the data last month, fell again in August, the eighth month in a row of declines, having gone downhill every month this year, “as elevated interest rates, ongoing supply chain problems, and high home prices continue to exacerbate housing affordability challenges,” according to the NAHB.With today’s index value of 49, the NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index is now back where it had been in June 2014, and below where it had been in April 2006, at the eve of the Housing Bust.The NAHB/Wells-Fargo Housing Market Index has plunged across all four regions so far this year, but unevenly, with the index hitting the lowest levels in the Midwest and the West, and with only the South still being above 50 if barely. Note that in the West (red line), after still rising early in the year, the index has plunged since March from 91 to 42. Chart shows from December through August:Traffic of prospective buyers plunged.“And in a troubling sign that consumers are now sitting on the sidelines due to higher housing costs, the August buyer traffic number in our builder survey was 32, the lowest level since April 2014 with the exception of the spring of 2020 when the pandemic first hit,” the NAHB re port said.Traffic is an indication of interest by buyers. And with the headwinds buyers face, including sky-high prices and 5%+ mortgage rates, they’ve lost interest:Homebuilders cut prices to prop up sales and limit cancellations: 19% of the builders said they cut prices over the past month to “increase sales or limit cancellations,” the NAHB said. This was up from 13% of the builders who’d reported having cut prices in the prior month.In terms of cancellations: Based on data from John Burns Real Estate Consulting, the cancellation rate homebuilders experienced in July, despite their efforts to limit them by cutting prices, spiked to 17.6%, out-spiking lockdown April 2020 (click on the image to enlarge): In terms of price reductions: They’ve started sooner and faster in California, Texas, and the Southwest, according to John Burns, for the three months through July. The price reductions include incentives:

FOMC Minutes "Participants anticipated that this slowdown in housing activity would continue" --From the Fed: Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, July 26-27, 2022. Excerpt on housing and policy: Participants also observed that housing activity had weakened notably, reflecting the impact of higher mortgage interest rates and house prices on home affordability. Participants anticipated that this slowdown in housing activity would continue and also expected higher borrowing costs to lead to a slowing in other interest-sensitive household expenditures, such as purchases of durable goods....In their assessment of the policy outlook, market participants expected significant policy tightening in coming meetings as the Committee continued to respond to the current elevated level of inflation. Nearly all respondents to the Desk survey anticipated a 75 basis point increase in the target range at the current meeting, and most expected a 50 basis point increase in September to follow.

Hotels: Occupancy Rate Down 4.6% Compared to Same Week in 2019 From CoStar: STR: Seasonal Demand Shifts Bring Down US Weekly Hotel Performance: Showing continued alignment with seasonal patterns, U.S. hotel performance fell slightly from the previous week, but showed improved comparisons with 2019, according to STR‘s latest data through Aug. 13. Aug. 7-13, 2022 (percentage change from comparable week in 2019*):
• Occupancy: 68.5% (-4.6%)
• Average daily rate (ADR): $152.34 (+15.8%)
• Revenue per available room (RevPAR): $104.30 (+10.5%)
*Due to the pandemic impact, STR is measuring recovery against comparable time periods from 2019. The following graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four-week average..The red line is for 2022, black is 2020, blue is the median, and dashed light blue is for 2021. Dashed purple is 2019 (STR is comparing to a strong year for hotels). The 4-week average of the occupancy rate is just below the median rate for the previous 20 years (Blue). The 4-week average of the occupancy rate has peaked seasonally and will now decline into the Fall.

Homebuilder Confidence Plummets For 8th Consecutive Month, Worst Slump Since 2007 Crash - The headline NAHB market index fell in June from 55 to 49, the eighth straight month of declines marking the worst stretch since the housing market collapsed in 2007, marking the first time since May 2020 that the index fell below the key break-even measure of 50. The reading was not only below consensus of an unchanged 55 print, but was worse than the most pessimistic estimate in the Bloomberg survey of economists. All sub-indices tumbled back to levels last seen during the depth of the COVID crash and, excluding that, the lowest level since 2014, as ongoing supply chain problems and high home prices continued to exacerbate housing affordability challenges. Current sales conditions dropped seven points to 57, sales expectations in the next six months declined two points to 47 and traffic of prospective buyers fell five points to 32. The group’s gauge of prospective buyer traffic fell five points to 48, the lowest since June 2020. The measure of present sales also declined to a two-year low, and sales expectations for the next six months dropped to the lowest since May 2020. Looking at the three-month moving averages for regional HMI scores, the Northeast fell nine points to 56, the Midwest dropped three points to 49, the South fell seven points to 63 and the West posted an 11-point decline to 51.“Ongoing growth in construction costs and high mortgage rates continue to weaken market sentiment for single-family home builders,” said NAHB Chairman Jerry Konter, a home builder and developer from Savannah, Ga. “And in a troubling sign that consumers are now sitting on the sidelines due to higher housing costs, the August buyer traffic number in our builder survey was 32, the lowest level since April 2014 with the exception of the spring of 2020 when the pandemic first hit.”“Tighter monetary policy from the Federal Reserve and persistently elevated construction costs have brought on a housing recession,” said NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz. “The total volume of single-family starts will post a decline in 2022, the first such decrease since 2011. However, as signs grow that the rate of inflation is near peaking, long-term interest rates have stabilized, which will provide some stability for the demand-side of the market in the coming months.” Roughly one-in-five (19%) home builders in the HMI survey reported reducing prices in the past month to increase sales or limit cancellations. The median price reduction was 5% for those reporting using such incentives. Meanwhile, 69% of builders reported higher interest rates as the reason behind falling housing demand, the top impact cited in the survey.

Retail Sales "Unchanged" in July -On a monthly basis, retail sales were unchanged from June to July (seasonally adjusted), and sales were up 10.3 percent from July 2021. From the Census Bureau report: Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for July 2022, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $682.8 billion,virtually unchanged from the previous month, but 10.3 percent above July 2021. ... The May 2022 to June 2022 percent change was revised from up 1.0 percent to up 0.8 percent. This graph shows retail sales since 1992. This is monthly retail sales and food service, seasonally adjusted (total and ex-gasoline).Retail sales ex-gasoline were up 0.2% in July.The second graph shows the year-over-year change in retail sales and food service (ex-gasoline) since 1993. Retail and Food service sales, ex-gasoline, increased by 7.1% on a YoY basis. Sales in July were slightly below expectations, and sales in May and June were revised up, combined.

Retail sales July 2022: Little changed amid fall in gas prices and drop in auto sales --Retail activity was flat in July as falling fuel prices held back gas station sales and consumers turned more heavily to online shopping, the Census Bureau reported Wednesday. While advance retail sales were unchanged, total receipts excluding autos rose 0.4%. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been looking for a 0.1% increase in the top-line number and a flat total ex-autos. June's gain was revised down to 0.8% from 1%. Retail and food sales excluding gasoline and autos rose 0.7% from a month ago. The numbers are adjusted seasonally but not for inflation, and come during a month when the consumer price index also was flat. A tumble in fuel prices off their record nominal highs pushed down sales at the pump, with gas station receipts off 1.8%. Motor vehicle and parts dealers sales also fell sharply, declining 1.6%. Gas prices had eclipsed $5 a gallon in many locations earlier in the summer, but fell through July and most recently were at $3.94 a gallon for regular unleaded, according to AAA. "People appear to have used some of the savings from lower gas prices to spend more on other items, both in nominal and — very likely — real terms," wrote Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics. "Auto sales have been severely constrained by the chip shortage, so pent-up demand likely is substantial. July's other losers were department stores and clothing retailers, but all these components are noisy and subject to revisions." Those pullbacks in gas and auto sales were offset by a 2.7% increase in online sales and a 1.5% gain in miscellaneous stores. Consumers have been fighting to keep up with an inflationary environment that has seen prices overall increase 8.5% from a year ago, close to the highest level in 40 years. Price rises have been especially pernicious in the food and energy category; even with the July slide in energy prices, gas station receipts climbed 39.9% from a year ago. July provided some respite from inflation pressures, and the decline in fuel costs particularly allowed consumers to spend elsewhere. Food sales rose just 0.2%, however, even as the food price index as measured by the Bureau of Labor Statistics increased 1.1% for the month. Sales at bars and restaurants also struggled, rising just 0.1%.

Ecommerce Sales Spike to Record. Retail Sales ex Gas Stations, ex Auto Dealers Jump to Record. Plunging Price of Gasoline & Shortage of New Vehicles Dog those Retailers - by Wolf Richter- The retail sales data, reported today by the Census Bureau, are based on surveys of about 5,500 retail businesses across the US, what they said theirsales were. The measure is designed to track how well retailers are doing byretailer category, and we’ll get into those categories in a moment. Another measure tracks spending by consumers, based on surveys of consumers. It’s reported separately and comes in an inflation-adjusted version. But not today (here’s June’s “Real” Consumer Spending). Retail sales track sales of goods, not of services, and make up only a portion of what consumers spend their money on – and about two-thirds of consumer spending is for services, and spending has shifted back to services all year. These are important distinctions between retail sales and consumer spending. I bring this up here because it always percolates through our illustrious comment section below the article. Retail sales data is designed to look at the health of retailers by retailer category, not the health of consumers, though we can draw some inferences from those retail sales about consumers. CPI inflation in July was 8.5% compared to July last year. Compared to June, CPI was flat. But this varied widely by product category. The CPI for services is spiking relentlessly but doesn’t figure into retail sales because retailers sell goods.

• The CPI for gasoline: -7.7% in July from June; if gas stations sold the same volume in terms of gallons in July as in June, their retail sales of gasoline in dollars would have plunged by 7.7% from June. But they didn’t – they dropped by only 1.8%, as we’ll see in a moment.
• The CPI for “food at home”: +1.3% in July from June. Which means, if consumers bought the same amount of food and didn’t shift to cheaper products, sales at grocery stores might increase by 1.3% for the month. But they didn’t. They ticked up only 0.2%, as we’ll see in a moment.
• The CPI for durable goods: +0.3% in July from June and, after a decline in prior months, was flat with February. The spike in durable goods prices occurred in 2021 and has now largely settled down as inflation has shifted to services. Retailers that are selling durable goods (not food and gasoline) had relatively fewer and smaller price increases, if any, in July.

Retail sales in July, at $683 million (seasonally adjusted), were flat with June but up by 10.3% from July last year, and up by 31.6% from July 2019, according to the Census Bureau today. But gasoline prices plunged which cut the dollar-sales of gas stations; and new-vehicle dealers were woefully short on inventory (down by over 70% from 2019, in number of new vehicles) which handicapped their sales. So excluding gasoline and auto dealers, retail sales jumped up 0.7% in July from June. Sales at New and Used Vehicle and Parts Dealers fell by 1.6% in July from June, to $125 billion, seasonally adjusted. Compared to July a year ago, sales were still up 2.1%, and compared to July three years ago, they were up 21%. This is the largest category of retail sales.

 Industrial Production Increased 0.6 Percent in July --From the Fed: Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization - In July, total industrial production increased 0.6 percent. Manufacturing output gained 0.7 percent after having fallen 0.4 percent in each of the two previous months. The production of motor vehicles and parts rose 6.6 percent, while factory output elsewhere moved up 0.3 percent. The index for mining increased 0.7 percent, while the index for utilities decreased 0.8 percent. At 104.8 percent of its 2017 average, total industrial production in July was 3.9 percent above its year-earlier level. Capacity utilization moved up 0.4 percentage point in July to 80.3 percent, a rate that is 0.7 percentage point above its long-run (1972–2021) average. This graph shows Capacity Utilization. This series is up from the record low set in April 2020, and above the level in February 2020 (pre-pandemic).Capacity utilization at 80.3% is 0.7% above the average from 1972 to 2021. This was above consensus expectations.Note: y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the change. The second graph shows industrial production since 1967.Industrial production decreased in June to 104.8. This is above the pre-pandemic level.The change in industrial production was above consensus expectations.

Recession Back On: NY Fed Manufacturing Unexpectedly Craters In 2nd Biggest Drop On Record -- One (business) day after the UMich survey hinted that economic optimism is set to jump amid collapsing inflation expectations, moments ago the New York Fed's Empire State Manufacturing Survey unexpectedly cratered from 11.1 to -31.3, slicking through consensus expectations for a 5.0 print like a hot knife through butter, and suffering the 2nd biggest monthly drop on record.The big miss of the month's first regional manufacturing survey was driven by a decline across all indicators, but especially by a sharp drop in the forward looking New Orders which tanked to -29.6 from +6.2, while the shipments index plummeted nearly fifty points to -24.1, indicating a sharp decline in both orders and shipments, and strongly hinting that a hard-landing recession is inevitable and that, for all the posturing, a Fed rate cut is imminent after all. Some more details:

• Manufacturing activity declined significantly in New York State, according to the August survey. The general business conditions index plunged forty-two points to -31.3, the second largest monthly decline in the index on record, and among the lowest levels in the survey’s history.
  • Twelve percent of respondents reported that conditions had improved over the month, and forty-four percent reported that conditions had worsened.
• The new orders index dropped thirty-six points to -29.6, and the shipments index plummeted nearly fifty points to -24.1, indicating a sharp decline in both orders and shipments.
• The unfilled orders index fell to -12.7, indicating that unfilled orders shrank for a third consecutive month.
• The delivery times index declined to around zero, indicating that delivery times held steady, the first month they have not lengthened in nearly two years.
• The inventories index fell to 6.4, signaling that inventories increased marginally.

Mocking the relentless data fudging by the politicized BLS, the report showed that the index of employees moved down eleven points to 7.4, pointing to a small increase in employment, and the average workweek index fell to -13.1, indicating a decline in hours worked. The prices paid index fell nine points to 55.5, its lowest level in over a year, indicating a deceleration in input price increases. The prices received index was little changed at 32.7.

Summer Teen Employment -- Here is a look at the change in teen employment over time. The graph below shows the employment-population ratio for teens (6 to 19 years old) since 1948.The graph is Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA), to show the seasonal hiring of teenagers during the summer.A few observations:
1) Although teen employment has recovered some since the great recession, overall teen employment had been trending down. This is probably because more people are staying in school (a long term positive for the economy).
2) Teen employment was significantly impacted in 2020 by the pandemic..
3) A smaller percentage of teenagers are obtaining summer employment. The seasonal spikes are smaller than in previous decades. The teen employment-population ratio was 38.4% in July 2022, down from 38.9% in July 2021. The teen participation rate was 43.6% in July 2022, down from 43.8% the previous July. So, a smaller percentage of teenagers are joining the labor force during the summer as compared to previous years. This could be because of fewer employment opportunities, or because teenagers are pursuing other activities during the summer.
4) The decline in teenager participation is one of the reasons the overall participation rate has declined (of course, the retiring baby boomers is the main reason the overall participation rate has declined over the last 20+ years).  

Top US Cruise Lines Cancel Sailings Amid Labor Shortage - Like the airline industry, cruise ships are faced with a shortage of workers industrywide, resulting in a slew of cancellations through fall. Bloomberg reported that several top cruise lines, such as Carnival Corp. and Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd., are canceling sailings or reducing passenger capacity due to labor shortages. Carnival Corp.'s Princess Cruises canceled eleven sailings on its Diamond Princess for the fall season, indicating it couldn't provide exceptional customer service amid labor shortages affecting almost every major cruise operator. Another large cruise operator, Norwegian Cruise Line, reduced passenger capacity because of staffing woes. "We're not immune to it," Norwegian's chief executive officer, Frank Del Rio, said of industrywide labor shortages.Also, P&O Cruises, a Carnival division, said seven sailings earlier this summer were canceled due to staffing shortages. Besides canceled sailings, for the cruise ship operators who continue to sail -- many are suspending special offerings while out at sea, such as special events because there's not enough staff. "There will be pizza available for virtually the entire time most guests are awake," Chris Chiames, a spokesman for Carnival Cruise Line, said in an email. The company also scaled back its complimentary birthday cakes and a chocolate extravaganza buffet, cuts made in part due to low staffing as well as general adjustments to match guest demand, according to Chiames. Just like the airplane pilot shortage that could take years to fix. According to Jim Walker, a Miami-based maritime lawyer, only 5% of cruise-ship employees are Americans. He said long hours and low pay make working in the cruise ship industry unappealing to most domestic workers.

Amazon workers walk off job at major West Coast air hub - Dozens of Amazon employees at the company’s air hub in San Bernardino, Calif., on Monday abandoned their workstations mid-shift over low wages and concerns regarding heat safety. The walkout in Southern California marks the first coordinated labor action in Amazon’s growing airfreight division, which uses Prime-branded planes to fly packages and goods around the country much like UPS or FedEx. The employees, who are independently organized, said they didn’t plan to return to work on Monday, in an effort to pressure Amazon to raise wages and improve safety. Organizers said more than 150 people walked out Monday afternoon, and managers had already slowed some operations in anticipation of the action. While a small fraction of the 1,500 employees who work at the hub in various shifts walked out, such a work stoppage can create logistical headaches and disruptions. Amazon spokesman Paul Flaningan contested that number, saying the company’s tally of workers who participated was approximately 74. Monday’s walkout is the latest sign that pro-union sentiment is spreading throughout Amazon’s ranks — this time at a uniquely vulnerable point in its logistics network. Amazon depends heavily on a few air hubs to keep millions of packages moving every day, which means the effect of a strike or work stoppage at any of those facilities would have a greater impact than a similar action at a regional warehouse.

 OSHA opens investigation of Amazon warehouses after three New Jersey workers die on the job over three-week period - The Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA) announced early last week that it has opened investigations into Amazon’s New Jersey facilities after three worker deaths were reported in a three-week span. The results will not be announced until the completion of the investigation, which could take up to six months. In the span of just three weeks, three workers employed at three different Amazon warehouse facilities in New Jersey died while on the job. Each of these tragic deaths further exposes the horrendous working conditions faced by workers at Amazon and offers yet another illustration of the gross exploitation and callous indifference to life that characterizes the entire logistics industry. The first death occurred on July 13, the last day of Amazon’s two-day Prime Week, the biggest Prime Day event in the company’s history. Then, 42-year-old Rafael Reynaldo Mota Frias collapsed at the EWR9 warehouse in Carteret, New Jersey, and was later pronounced dead. According to friends, he was “a hard-working dad…who was everything to this family.” Several other workers employed at the fulfillment center told NBC News that the deceased worked as a “waterspider”—a physically demanding job involving pushing carts loaded down with goods to various workstations across the warehouse—and had been working on an upper floor of the facility, known for its extreme heat. The temperature in Carteret on July 13 reached 92 degrees Fahrenheit. For over seven years, Prime Day has consistently resulted in record-breaking sales for Amazon, which rakes in billions of dollars by pushing workers past the limits of physical and mental exertion with breakneck speedups and forced overtime. The corporation recently reported that its profits have improved by 40 percent following a lull in June. According to the website Seeking Alpha, “[t]he big rally has followed quarterly results that showed better than expected revenue and better revenue guidance” from the corporation, a euphemism for increased exploitation of the workforce. Eleven days later, on July 24, a worker at Amazon’s PNE5 warehouse in Robbinsville sustained fatal injuries in a workplace accident. Early that morning, the worker reportedly fell from a three-foot ladder and struck his head in an open docking bay. The worker was taken to the Capital Health Regional Medical Center in Trenton and died three days later. On August 4, an Amazon worker at the company’s DEY6 delivery station facility in Monroe Township died on the job. For the most part, very little information regarding the three deaths has been released. “The new Occupational Health and Safety Administration investigations are putting fresh scrutiny on Amazon’s injury rates and workplace-safety procedures, which have long been criticized by labor and safety advocates as inadequate,” remarked a local ABC News affiliate. Most details, including the workers’ names and the causes of each death, have been withheld from Amazon workers and the general public. OSHA has claimed the ongoing investigations prevent it from releasing more information.

For Medically Vulnerable Families, Inflation’s Squeeze Is Inescapable - Deborah Lewis prayed she would earn $75, just enough to fill the tank of her Kia sedan so she could drive her 8-year-old daughter, Annabelle, 80 miles south to Los Angeles to receive her weekly chemotherapy treatment for acute lymphoblastic leukemia. Just a year ago, the same tank of gas would have cost $30 less.After a full shift as a gig worker, the mother had earned close to what she needed. “It took a lot longer than I thought,” she said. High inflation is hitting families across the nation. According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, consumer prices in July were up 8.5% from a year earlier, one of the biggest increases in recent decades. The Bureau of Economic Analysis found that consumers are spending the most onhousing and utilities, food, and medical care.Overall wages continue to climb, but after adjusting for the rising price of goods and services, workers’ paychecks declined 3.5% over the past year. A recent KFF poll found that 74% of registered voters put inflation, including rising gas prices, at the top of their concerns.For millions of families living with chronic diseases — such as heart disease, diabetes, and cancer — or other debilitating conditions, inflation is proving a punishing scourge that could be harmful to their health. Unlike dining out less or buying fewer clothes, many patients don’t have a choice when it comes to paying for medicine, medical supplies, and other ancillary costs. Some must drive long distances to see a specialist, and others must adhere to a strict diet. “Chronic disease patients are usually on the front lines of seeing a lack of supplies or an increase in out-of-pocket costs,” Health care has grown increasingly unaffordable. Half of adults report having difficulty paying their health costs, according to KFF polling. One-third say they or a family member has skipped recommended medical treatment in the past year because of the cost, and one-quarter of adults report rationing pills or leaving prescriptions unfilled.Inflation has squeezed families further by driving up the price of gas and food, as well as medical products such as needles and bed-wetting pads. Health care costs have risen 5.1% since July 2021, and medical commodities — which include prescription and over-the-counter drugs, medical equipment and supplies — are up 3.7%. Inflation is particularly detrimental to the health of low-income patients; studies have found astrong link between poverty and health. According to the California Budget & Policy Center, more than half of California households making $50,000 or less struggle to pay for food, housing, and medical costs.

Early-term births associated with higher rate of ADHD as reported by teachers -Among children born at term (37–41 weeks), those born before 39 weeks are more likely to experience symptoms associated with attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD), according to a study by Rutgers Robert Wood Johnson Medical School.ADHD, which affects more than 10 percent of U.S. school-age children, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, manifests early in childhood with symptoms of hyperactivity, impulsivity or inattention, and has known links to preterm birth (less than 37 weeks gestation). The study, published in the Journal of Pediatrics, is one of only a few to investigate the associations between gestational age at term (37–41 weeks) and a diagnosis or symptoms of ADHD. It is the first to include reports from teachers.“Teachers’ reports, in conjunction with maternal reports and physician evaluations, provide valuable input for the diagnosis of ADHD,” said Nancy Reichman, author of the study and a professor of pediatrics at Rutgers Robert Wood Johnson Medical School. “Mother-reported symptoms generally reflect behaviors in the home or in small family or social groups, while teacher-reported symptoms reflect behaviors in a structured educational setting by professionals who work with a large number of children and observe the range of behaviors that students exhibit in classrooms.”Reichman and her team, which included Rutgers Robert Wood Johnson Medical School neonatology fellow Geethanjali Linguasubramanian, sought to estimate the associations between gestational age at term and 9-year-old children’s symptoms of ADHD reported by their teachers.They analyzed data on about 1,400 children in the Fragile Families and Child Wellbeing study, a U.S. birth cohort study that randomly sampled births in 75 hospitals in 20 large U.S. cities from 1998 to 2000 and re-interviewed mothers over nine years. During the nine-year follow-up, consent was obtained to contact the children’s teachers, who were asked to evaluate their students using the Conners’ Teacher Rating Scale–Revised Short Form, which includes symptoms of hyperactivity, ADHD, oppositional behavior and cognitive problems or inattention.Overall, the Rutgers researchers found that children born early-term (37–38 weeks) had significantly higher scores on the teacher rating scales than children who were full-term (39–41 weeks) for hyperactivity, ADHD and cognitive problems or inattention, but that gestational age wasn’t significantly associated with oppositional behavior.Specifically, the researchers found that each week of gestational age at term was associated with 6 percent lower hyperactivity scores and 5 percent lower ADHD and cognitive problems or inattention scores, and that birth at 37 to 38 weeks was associated with 23 percent higher hyperactivity scores and 17 percent higher ADHD scores when compared with birth at 39 to 41 weeks.

 Federal electric bus program leaves Chicago, other school districts behind -Chicago Public Schools and dozens of other Illinois school districts are being left out of a federal electric school bus program despite serving tens of thousands of low-income students in areas overburdened by fossil fuel pollution.Applications for the first round of funding under the Clean School Bus Program are due today. Several districts didn’t qualify because of what some lawmakers, superintendents and advocates say are design flaws with the program.The Clean School Bus Program, created by last year’s Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act, makes $5 billion worth of rebates for electric and low-emissions buses and charging infrastructure available through 2026, with $2.5 billion earmarked specifically for electric buses and chargers. The program requires that each electric bus rebate directly replace a diesel bus, with the goal of getting aging diesel buses off the road. But many districts pay contractors to run their buses, and districts can’t get a rebate if they can’t persuade their contractors to scrap a bus or otherwise find a qualifying bus to replace. They also can’t qualify if they are transitioning from a contractor to owning their own fleet. The first round of funding will be allocated through a lottery among districts on apriority list for schools with more than 20% of students below the poverty line based on the census Small Area Income and Poverty Estimate. That’s a different data set than is used for determining need for free-and-reduced-price school lunches and other supports. Chicago Public Schools — with an enrollment of more than 330,000 and more low-income students than most districts nationwide — has 19.9% of students below that poverty line, hence the district doesn’t meet the 20% criteria, even though individual schools and parts of the district meet the threshold.

As Illinois Heads Back-to-School, There Are CDC Has New COVID Guidelines For Isolation, Exposure --While some Illinois students and teachers are still waiting until later this month to head to the classroom, others have already begun to head back-to-school, including those in District U-46 -- the state's second largest school district. But as the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention continues to roll out its new, more flexible COVID guidelines and protocols, this school year is shaping up to look a little different than the last two. “We’re in a stronger place today as a nation, with more tools—like vaccination, boosters, and treatments—to protect ourselves, and our communities, from severe illness from COVID-19,” the CDC's Greta Massetti, an author of the guidelines, said in a statement.“We also have a better understanding of how to protect people from being exposed to the virus, like wearing high-quality masks, testing, and improved ventilation. This guidance acknowledges that the pandemic is not over, but also helps us move to a point where COVID-19 no longer severely disrupts our daily lives.”At District U-46, which encompasses communities in the Northwest suburbs including Bartlett, Elgin, South Elgin, Hanover Park, Stream and Wayne, masks will not be required for students, staff and visitors.Those guidelines also ring true for what's in place at the state's largest school district,Chicago Public Schools.And while it won't be required for the upcoming school year, vaccination is still strongly encouraged.According to recent update from Chicago Public Health Department commissioner Dr. Allison Arwady, only about 9% of Chicagoans under five years old have received first doses of the COVID vaccine -- a number she said she isn't "pleased" with.CPS CEO Pedro Martinez echoed Arwady's sentiments, saying "There is no better protection than vaccination. One of our goals for the new school year is having our children be learning safely in our classrooms. The best way to accomplish that for families is through vaccinations."While specific protocols and guidelines may vary from district to district, many will put into practice the CDC's new procedures around quarantine, exposure and more.Here's a refresher on some of the biggest pieces from the CDC's updated guidelines.

Los Angeles schools reopen as county health officials cover for removal of public health measures at public forum - Schools in the Los Angeles Unified School District (LAUSD) reopened Monday, August 15, without any mitigation measures against COVID-19 and the growing monkeypox pandemic. While COVID-19 infections and deaths continue to rise and monkeypox begins to make its first appearances in schools, city and state officials and their accomplices in the United Teachers of Los Angeles have made clear that nothing whatsoever will be done to prevent new infections. The opening of the country’s second-largest district comes as the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) ends social distancing and quarantining measures as well as testing measures for public schools. The policy at all levels of government is to deliberately allow the virus to spread without hindrance on the false grounds that the pandemic cannot be brought under control. This is setting the stage for yet another massive winter surge. While the move to reopen schools early last year was a criminal act in and of itself, there were at least some mitigation measures in place, even if they were mostly inadequate. The beginning of the 2022–2023 school year, however, will see the abandonment of any and all COVID-19 testing which last year took place on a weekly basis. Masks, which last year were mandatory, are now completely optional, even in indoor settings. Anticipating that the reckless lifting of any and all public health measures will result in massive backlash from students and parents, the Los Angeles County Department of Public Health (LACDPH) held a virtual Town Hall on Back to School Safety on Wednesday, August 11, to assuage concerns. The meeting began with moderator LACDPH Director Dr. Barbera Ferrer outlining the current state of the COVID-19 pandemic in Los Angeles County. Her description of the current situation was harrowing. Rates of transmission remain high, with an average of 3,800 cases a day over the course of the week, with 4,500 new cases last Wednesday. Dr. Ferrer then went on to explain that LA County was still seeing an average of 15 deaths a day before expressing her “hope,” that the numbers would go down. After which, she thanked everyone for helping to keep the COVID-19 numbers down as everyone was being welcomed back into schools. It was at this point that Dr. Ferrer admitted that children do get COVID-19 and children do in fact die from COVID-19. Over the course of the pandemic, more than 631,000 children have tested positive for COVID-19 in Los Angeles County alone. Said Ferrer, “in fact, over the past 30 days that ended on August 6, over 13,400 children ages five to 17 were confirmed COVID-19 cases in LA County. That represented about 9 percent of all of our cases this past month.” Despite such alarming figures, Ferrer and the rest of the panel claimed that the district and the county were in “a better place” with access to “better tools,” none of which the district will be employing anyway. Audience members, however, were largely not taken in by such false optimism as was reflected during the question and answer period.

DC schools relaxing COVID-19 protocols ahead of student return - The Washington, D.C., public school system announced Thursday evening during a town hall that it would relax COVID-19 measures ahead of the 2022-2023 school year.D.C. Public Schools (DCPS) announced that it will no longer be conducting daily health screenings on students upon arrival to school. However, DCPS is asking parents to screen their children for COVID-19 symptoms every day before sending them to the classroom.The district will also no longer require students and staff to quarantine following a COVID-19 exposure — unless they are exhibiting symptoms, which is DCPS’s biggest change from last school year’s guidance. The latest guidance has been updated in accordance with the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s recommendations.Asymptomatic weekly testing from the prior school year will now be discontinued at schools, except for at the start of the school year when “test to return” will be conducted.Each school in the DCPS system will distribute COVID-19 tests for each student to take the day before the first day of school.DCPS is also asking parents that if a child is exhibiting COVID-19 symptoms, they are kept home from school and a medical professional is contacted, and if the child does test positive for COVID-19, the school is notified.Anyone who tests positive for COVID-19 will still be required to isolate for five days, and parents will receive a notice in writing or in an email if someone in the child’s class tests positive.Masks will remain optional in the classrooms, though students who have tested positive for COVID-19 will be required to wear a mask until day 10 following their positive test after the end of their five-day isolation period.Additionally, students ages 12 and older will be required to present proof of COVID-19 vaccination on the first day of school, alongside other DCPS immunization requirements.

Monkeypox may be on its way to a school near you -The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has reported over 14,000 cases of monkeypox in the United States and rapidly increasing, with the vast majority among gay or bisexual men. As cases begin to appear outside this community, they will provide insights into alternative means that the virus can be spreading. Close and consistent physical contact continues to be the primary vector for transmission. However, recent cases among young children suggest that prolonged physical contact may not be as necessary as first suspected. The range of ways in which the virus can be transmitted remains nuanced. Given that epidemiologists and public health officials are observing and learning in real-time, if transmission can occur from more casual physical contact, then the virus is ripe to spread into the general population. The most vulnerable subpopulations are the youngest members of society: toddlers, school children and young adults in college. Young children and the immunosuppressed remain at the highest risk of untoward outcomes. Young children have a natural propensity to play and touch each other. If one such child is infected with monkeypox, they can spawn a local outbreak with the other children, and their teachers. Many such children engage in physical contact like playful wrestling. Such activities are innate. Attempting to limit or prevent such physical contact is not only futile, but it could be harmful to their development. Older children also display a natural tendency for close physical contact. Team sports like wresting, football, basketball and rugby all involve significant physical contact, creating an environment for the virus to be transmitted. Young people in this age group also begin to explore dating, providing even more potential opportunities for virus transmission. College students are perhaps the most vulnerable. Interactions both inside and outside the classroom are plentiful. Packed classrooms, dormitories and residences, as well as sporting events all draw students closer together. So, what are the drivers that may allow monkeypox to barrel through these populations? First, there is an insufficient supply of vaccines available for all these populations, even as doses are being split as much as five-to-one. Second, quickly shipping and transporting vaccines to needed locales would be a logistics nightmare. Third, and most critically, administering vaccines to such children and young adults, the so-called “last mile,” would be most challenging.

The Washington Post's Opinion | Youngkin's toxic Virginia school 'tip line' is shrouded in secrecy - By the Editorial Board - Gov. Glenn Youngkin (R) took office this year with a double message for his fellow Virginians, encouraging them to “love your neighbor” while also urging them to use a new tip line to complain about “divisive” school teaching. In fact, announced just days after his inauguration, Mr. Youngkin’s email tip line itself turned out to be divisive. He asked “folks to send us reports and observations” on objectionable material being taught at schools, adding that the state would “catalogue it all.” The “divisive” material he had in mind, as he made clear in his first executive order, dealt with race, although he defined his terms so gauzily that they could mean almost anything. The tip line triggered criticism, anger and mockery in Virginia and beyond. The association representing all 133 of Virginia’s local school superintendents wrote to Mr. Youngkin, pointing out that the tip line “impedes positive relationships,” and pleading with him to scrap it. He refused. He has also shrouded the tip line in secrecy, refusing to make public the volume or content of the communiques it has received or the actions the state government has taken in response. If Mr. Youngkin’s tip line has sent any message to teachers, it is: Big Brother is watching, and he won’t tell you what he’s found out. A dozen news organizations, including The Post, filed a lawsuit in April seeking access to the tip line’s submissions. Those submissions — rendered through a public channel, at the behest of a public official, with the ostensible purpose of modifying the material taught at public schools — should be public. American Oversight, an ethics watchdog organization, and the law firm Ballard Spahr filed a second lawsuit this month. It seeks similar information, including how the Youngkin administration has responded to tip line submissions. “What is the tip line’s true purpose and how has the administration acted on these ‘tips’?” Heather Sawyer, American Oversight’s executive director, said in a statement. “What is it about this program that they don’t want the public to see?” In response, the Youngkin administration so far has stonewalled, with officials saying, preposterously, that tip line submissions should be regarded as the governor’s “working papers and correspondence” and therefore somehow beyond the reach of the public domain.

 UCLA Creates Database To 'Track Attacks On Critical Race Theory' - Faculty at the University of California–Los Angeles (UCLA) School of Law have created a database to identify and record efforts to block critical race theory (CRT) being taught in schools across the country. The database, called the CRT Forward Tracking Project, allows users to “track attacks on critical race theory” and filter the information as part of an effort to “support anti-racist education, training and research,” according to the school.The project was created by UCLA’s Critical Race Studies Program, founded in 2000 as the first law school program in the nation dedicated to critical race theory.CRT, according to the school, is “the study of systemic racism in law, policy and society,” and suggests efforts need to be made to fix these alleged injustices.Meanwhile, critics say CRT pushes a controversial worldview related to Marxism that analyzes all aspects of life through a racial lens instead of through the concept of class struggle.UCLA Law announced earlier this month it would track anti-CRT activity through the database at all levels of government across the nation.“The project was created to help people understand the breadth of the attacks on the ability to speak truthfully about race and racism through the campaigns against CRT,” said Taifha Natalee Alexander, project director of CRT Forward, in a statement.The database analyzes these efforts to determine where the activity is happening and how opponents are taking action, such as protesting curriculum at the school board level.It also includes the type of CRT content being restricted, such as a course being taught at a public school, as well as the institution or group being targeted and enforcement mechanisms being used to regulate the content.

Colleges are making tuition free for Native students. Will more students graduate? --Starting in September, Kayley Walker will have her tuition covered, part of a new initiative through the University of California system to make tuition free for Native students."It just kind of it takes a really big weight off my shoulders to know that I'm covered," Walker said. It also opened up an opportunity she never thought possible: applying for a Master's degree.The UC system, the largest in the nation, is part of a growing number of schools to make tuition free for Native students. In June, the University of Arizona announced free tuition for students who are enrolled with a federally recognized tribe in Arizona. This fall, Oregon State University will grant in-state tuition for every federally-recognized Native student, regardless of where they live.These programs aim to support Native students, who had the highestdropout rates out of any ethnic group in the country during the pandemic. But it's not just a pandemic issue, Native student enrollment has been on the decline since 2008.Low college-going numbers are related to high school graduation numbers. Native students have a high school graduation rate of 49.3 percentnationally, compared to their white peers with 76.2 percent. Affordabilityin itself is a challenge for Native students, related to a lack of generational wealth in communities. A report in 2020 showed 51 percent of Native students had an expected family contribution – the amount of money the government deemed they had to pay for college – at $0. Native students also struggle with a sense of belonging at mainstream universities, where many faculty don't look like them.Additionally, Native communities have a complicated relationship with education institutions in the U.S. Many universities are built on stolenIndigenous lands and Native communities have a traumatic history with government-supported boarding schools that still lingers today."There's a lot of systematic issues and political ramifications that people aren't aware of, which hinders economic mobility for Native students," said Amanda Tachine, an assistant professor of higher education at Arizona State University. "So when universities increase tuition, we're seeing this trend of also Native student enrollment decreasing."Tachine, a citizen of Navajo Nation, argues it adds more reasons to why colleges should be supporting Native students.Tuition waivers and discounts aren't a new trend, however. Tribal colleges,of which there are about three dozen nationwide based in Indigenous communities, have historically made tuition cost-effective. The University of Maine has had a tuition waiver since the 1930s. Theirwaiver originally had limitations on the number of students that could apply from two nearby tribes – the Penobscot tribe and the Passamaquoddy tribe – but over time has expanded to allow an unlimited number of applicants.

Colleges warn students of monkeypox risk - One by one, cases of the painful viral infection popped up this summer at George Washington, Georgetown and American universities. Now these schools in the nation’s capital and others across the country are warning their communities to be on guard against the potential spread of monkeypox in the coming weeks when students return to campus for the fall term.The public health campaigns centered on monkeypox come as colleges and universities are managing the third back-to-school season shadowed by the coronavirus pandemic. Students and educators are eager for normalcy after the disruptions of the previous two years.That could complicate efforts to combat a threat much different from covid-19. Health authorities say monkeypox spreads through intimate contact, often skin to skin, including but not limited to sexual encounters. Authorities also warn of possible spread through respiratory secretions or touching the bedding or towels used by someone who is infected.All of which sounds like circumstances that could occur in college dormitories, on dance floors or in other campus spaces.“Now we have to manage two public health emergencies all at once,” said Ranit Mishori, vice president and chief public health officer at Georgetown. “It’s very difficult for staff, students and faculty.”Mishori said Georgetown officials know of two recent cases within their community. GWU and AU officials also have confirmed cases. The news site Inside Higher Ed reported this month that cases have emerged as well at the University of Texas at Austin, and West Chester and Bucknell universities, both in Pennsylvania.Gregory L. Fenves, president of Emory University, said the campus in Atlanta is preparing for the new health threat and mindful that the coronavirus pandemic has not disappeared. “People are tired of covid,” he said. “This issue of public health fatigue is a real one.”One of the most sensitive issues colleges face is how to communicate about an outbreak that so far in the United States has spread mainly among men who have sex with other men. “We don’t want to stigmatize sexual behavior,” said Lynn R. Goldman, dean of public health at GWU. She noted that monkeypox is not a sexually transmitted disease, and condoms don’t guard against it.The American College Health Association said in a statement: “Anyone can get monkeypox, so campuses should communicate it as a public health concern for all; however, campus communications can be tailored to different audiences to be most effective. No matter the audience, it is important that communications convey compassion, reduce stigma and address equity.” Mishori said schools should brief athletes, coaches, custodians and others about the virus. “We recognize that anybody and everybody is at risk, regardless of gender or sexual orientation,” she said.

The University of Michigan downplays monkeypox pandemic in the lead-up to return to campuses - The University of Michigan administration is promoting a misinformation campaign to intentionally cover up and downplay the danger of the emerging monkeypox pandemic. With the Fall semester commencing in under two weeks, U-M’s 48,000 students, nearly 30,000 staff and, in addition, 6,200 Michigan Medicine nurses face an immense threat to their health and lives in both the monkeypox and ongoing COVID-19 pandemics. Sports programs will soon fully restart, drawing tens of thousands of residents to stadiums for the months ahead. The most reckless expression of this campaign came in a Q&A between two epidemiologists at U-M—Joseph Eisenberg and Andrew Brouwer—released last week. While casually accepting monkeypox “is the next pandemic,” ignoring the weight of such a statement amid the horrific death toll of the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, Brouwer asserted it is “not the next COVID.” He even went as far as to say that “[i]t is unlikely to become a widespread epidemic in the broader public, and we should not be too worried about catching it when we’re in public.” Like the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and its international counterparts, Brouwer repeatedly recited the false claim that monkeypox is primarily sexually transmitted, particularly by homosexual or bisexual men. “MPV is a sexually transmitted infection [STI]. Sexual transmission is not the only mode of transmission, but it is by far the most important one right now. The fact is that 98% of cases worldwide in this epidemic have been in men who have sex with men. To gloss over this fact creates incorrect risk perceptions for both low- and high-risk individuals.” A previous public statement published in The University Record, the official source for faculty-staff news at the University of Michigan, unscientifically stated: “MPV [monkeypox] is not nearly as contagious as COVID-19. Unlike COVID-19, which primarily spreads through respiratory or airborne droplets, MPV generally requires direct contact for transmission to occur. The difference in how the two spread puts the general public at lower risk for MPV.” It continued, “MPV is rarely fatal, and most cases resolve on their own after two to four weeks.” Beyond stating that it will offer limited vaccination and testing during the coming semester, the U-M administration is pushing all responsibility onto individual students to carry out unfeasible personal protection efforts while on campus. The U-M administration’s statements are a pack of lies and half-truths. Monkeypox is a dangerous disease caused by a virus closely related to smallpox. It has a similar fatality rate to COVID-19, which has killed over 1 million in the US alone since 2020, and causes debilitating and excruciating physical symptoms. Roughly 10 percent of cases require hospitalization. Infection risks blindness, suffocation and scarring of the face or body. Despite U-M’s false claims that monkeypox is a homosexual STI, longstanding research shows monkeypox can spread through the air via aerosols, just as COVID-19 does, and stay on infected surfaces for weeks. Brouwer’s reference to the dominance of men who have sex with men as being infected is a product of slanted testing primarily targeting that population rather than the broader community in which it is spreading. Already, tens of thousands of cases are emerging globally, with 11,177 cases officially recorded in the US. In Michigan, there is a likely outbreak unfolding at the Stellantis Sterling Heights Assembly Plant, a large auto plant with 7,000 workers located north of Detroit.

Students, graduates, artists oppose the closing of the San Francisco Art Institute: Part 1— “What happens to the human spirit over time?” - On July 31, the WSWS posted an article on the July 15 announcement that the San Francisco Art Institute (SFAI) would “cease operations, no longer offering courses or degrees.” We characterized the closing of the 150-year-old art school, in one of the cultural centers of the US, as a significant and telling event.Not only was SFAI going out of business, its disappearance had not provoked substantial outcry or protest, certainly not from the city’s fabulously wealthy layers. We pointed out that the six richest individuals in California all resided in the Bay Area and were collectively worth one-third of a trillion dollars.American capitalism has no use for the fine arts in so far as they play no role in pushing up share values or assisting the top one percent of the population to accumulate further personal wealth. The ruling elite is proving itself incapable of offering the minimum conditions for the development of artistic tendencies that in any way correspond to our times. It genuinely dreads “every new word,” in Trotsky’s phrase, for fear that new artistic developments might arouse criticism of or even pose some ultimate threat to the present organization of society.The WSWS article struck a nerve. It was widely read, by students and faculty at SFAI, as well as alumni of the school and many others. We heard from numerous angry and concerned graduates of the school, as well as students whose programs were cut short by the closing. Last week, the WSWS spoke on a video call with Kristen Gundlach, Bianca Lago and Grey Day, members of Students for Action at SFAI, a group, in its own words, devoted to the effort “to rescue SFAI from closing permanently.” (transcript follows)

 Education Department cancels $3.9 billion in student debt for over 200,000 borrowers - The Department of Education announced Tuesday that it will cancel nearly $4 billion worth of federal student loans for 208,000 borrowers defrauded by a popular for-profit institution.All remaining students who attended the now-defunct ITT Technical Institute between Jan. 1, 2005, through its closure in September 2016, including those who have not submitted a borrower defense claim, will have 100% of their loans canceled. Borrowers who qualify for the reliefwill not need to take any additional action to receive the funds."It is time for student borrowers to stop shouldering the burden from ITT's years of lies and false promises," Education Secretary Miguel Cardona said in a statement. "The evidence shows that for years, ITT's leaders intentionally misled students about the quality of their programs in order to profit off federal student loan programs, with no regard for the hardship this would cause."In 2018, ITT's former chief executive, Kevin Modany, and former chief financial officer, Daniel Fitzpatrick, agreed to pay $200,000 and $100,000, respectively, as part of a settlement with the Securities and Exchange Commission for allegedly deceiving investors, though neither admitted wrongdoing, CNBC Make It has previously reported.The Biden administration has already approved about $1.9 billion in debt relief for 130,000 borrowers who attended ITT on the grounds that the institution misled students about their job prospects, ability to transfer credits to other schools and accreditation of its associate degree in nursing.Tuesday's announcement is the Biden administration's second-largest targeted debt relief action for defrauded borrowers, a department spokesperson told CNBC Make It. It is surpassed only by the $5.8 billion cancellation in loans for 560,000 students who attended the now-defunct Corinthian Colleges, which was announced in June. This brings the total amount of loan relief provided by the administration to an estimated $32 billion, including $13 billion for defrauded borrowers.

White House solicits ideas on student debt relief as Biden’s decision looms - White House officials plan to meet this week with student debt activists and advocacy groups ahead of President Joe Biden’s self-imposed deadline of Aug. 31 for deciding whether to approve broad-based debt relief for millions of Americans. The virtual meeting, scheduled for Thursday, is the latest sign that the White House is seriously considering canceling some amount of student loan debt as Biden advisers weigh the election-year political consequences of such a decision. A range of outside groups working on student loan cancellation were invited to participate in the event. The White House described the meeting as “an opportunity for you to share your priorities on student debt relief,” according to a copy of the invitation obtained by POLITICO. Officials from the White House Domestic Policy Council, National Economic Council, Office of Public Engagement and Office of Political Strategy and Outreach are scheduled to attend the meeting. Asked for comment on the meeting, a White House official said on Wednesday: “We are holding the meeting at the request of the groups, as we have done regularly over the past year.” Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre said on Tuesday that Biden had not made any decision on whether to extend the freeze on payments or widespread debt cancellation. “The Department of Education will communicate directly with borrowers about the end of the payment pause when a decision is made,” Jean-Pierre said. On the issue of broad-based debt cancellation, she added, the White House was continuing to “assess our options.” Jean-Pierre reiterated on Tuesday that Biden has committed to deciding by the end of the month. “He’ll have something before August 31,” she said. The Biden administration is widely expected, at a minimum, to further extend that freeze on payments until at least after the November elections, as many top Democrats have urged the White House to do. Education Department officials have already signaled a likely extension of the payment pause by telling loan-servicing companies to hold off on sending borrowers notices that their payments are resuming. But the broader question of a mass loan cancellation program is more complicated. White House advisers have long been divided over the policy wisdom and political ramifications of forgiving large amounts of student debt. The internal decision-making process has dragged on for months without resolution. Administration officials have been looking at canceling $10,000 of debt for borrowers earning below a certain income threshold. But many progressives, including major labor unions and civil rights groups like the NAACP want the White House to forgive a larger amount of debt — as much as $50,000 — for all borrowers.At the Education Department, officials have been working on plans for how the agency would implement a widespread student loan forgiveness programthat would be unprecedented in scale. Department officials are studying how they could automate any loan forgiveness for as many borrowers as possible without requiring them to fill out an application form. They are looking at ways to cancel debt, for example, for borrowers who are in default and those who ever received a Pell grant.

“GAO Study claiming Government Losses on Federal Student Loan Program is flawed, deceptive” - The General Accounting Office (GAO) recently published a report claiming that the federal Direct Student Loan program was, on balance, a cost to the federal government, rather than an income source as was previously reported. In 2013, for example, the Congressional Budget Office said that in 2012, the government had profited $50 billion on the program, and that this would increase as the portfolio increased (and it has). The GAO’s most recent claim is the federal government made very little in 2012 ($600 million), and this profit turned into annual losses in subsequent years- to over $20 billion/year by 2017.So why such a massive difference in profit/loss estimates?The GAO study identifies the Income Driven Repayment (IDR) programs (where borrowers pay based upon their income for 15, 20, or 25 years, and their loan balances are cancelled at the end of the term), and also the cost of defaulted loans as 2 of the largest factors contributing to the overall program losses that they found.Both of these assertions, however, are provably false.First: The GAO assumes that a significant percentage of the borrowers in the IDR programs will ultimately receive loan cancellation by completing the IDR program or through Public Service Loan Forgiveness (they rely on the Department of Education’s claim, for example, that 58% of borrowers entering IDR’s in 2023 will successfully complete these plans and receive loan cancellation). But history shows that the overwhelming majority (99%) of borrowers who try for these IDR programs are being disqualified out of the programs, and receive no loan cancellation.For example: out of several million people who enrolled in the Income Contingent Repayment Program (ICR) since 1995, only 32 people had made it through as of 2021.Similarly, it was reported in 2015 that 57% of the people enrolled in Income Based Repayment (IBR) had been disqualified in one year alone for failure to “verify their income”, an annual, onerous exercise required of the borrowers- and one of many ways the Department can and is disqualifying borrowers. Given that 30% of these income verification forms are rejected per year, simple math would predict that the chances of making it through 20 consecutive years shrinks to 0.08%- a vanishingly small percentage. For the Public Service Loan Forgiveness Program (PSLF), the disqualification rate was 99% as of 2018. It remains to be seen what results an “overhauled” version of this plan will yield, but anecdotally, stories from borrowers who are still being denied abound. It would be surprising, frankly, if even 10% of those who thought they would get forgiveness through this program actually do.The Department of Education clearly has no desires or intentions of actually cancelling any loans, and there is no reason to believe that a significant percentage of federal student loans will ever, actually be cancelled.Decades of White House Budget data show that the government actually makes a profit- not a loss- on defaulted student loans. This was true in 2010, when the White House reported a recovery rate on defaulted FFELP (federally guaranteed) loans of 122% (all other loans the government made or insured that year had an average recovery rate of about 34%). It is still true- in fact more true- today.More recent White House Budget Data (2022), shows that this trend has continued for the Direct Loan Program, with an average recovery rate of over 100%. Similar to the 2010 data, student loans were the only type of loan that could be found in the federal portfolio for which the recovery rate exceeded 100%.

Researchers Ask: Does Enforcing Civility Stifle Online Debate in Social Media? --In poll after poll, Americans say they are deeply concerned about rising incivility online. And extensive social media research has focused on how to counteract online incivility. But with Civic Signals, a project of the National Conference on Citizenship and the Center for Media Engagement, researchers took a different approach: If you started from scratch, they asked, what would a flourishing, healthy digital space look like?They quickly realized that it wouldn’t always be civil. The Civic Signals project, which began about four years ago, initially involved conducting a thorough literature review and expert interviews in the U.S. and four other countries to identify the values — or “signals” — people want reflected in the design of online spaces. The team then conducted focus groups and polled more than 22,000 people in 20 countries who were frequent users of social, search, and messaging platforms. Gina Masullo, a professor in the School of Journalism and Media at the University of Texas at Austin, brought an expertise in incivility research to the group. But “pretty early on in the process,” she said, the team concluded that if one of the goals was to support productive political discourse, civility alone was insufficient. “It’s not really that we are advocating for incivility,” said Masullo. “But if you are going to have passionate discussion about politics, which we want in a democracy, I would argue, people are not always going to talk perfectly about it.” In her book “Nasty Talk: Online Incivility and Public Debate,” she points out that “perfect” speech can be so sanitized that we wind up saying nothing.No one is arguing that social media companies shouldn’t combat the most harmful forms of speech — violent threats, targeted harassment, racism, incitement to violence. But the artificial intelligence programs that the companies use for screening, trained using squishy and arguably naive notions of civility, miss some of the worst forms of hate. For example, research led by Libby Hemphill, a professor in the University of Michigan’s School of Information and the Institute for Social Research, demonstrated how white supremacists evade moderation by donning a cloak of superficial politeness.“We need to understand more than just civility to understand the spread of hatred,” she said. Even if platforms get better at hate Whac-A-Mole, if the goal is not just to profit, but also to create a digital space for productive discourse, they will need to retool how algorithms prioritize content. Research suggests that companies incentivize posts that elicit strong emotion, especially anger and outrage, because, like a wreck on the highway, these draw attention, and, crucially, more eyeballs to paid advertising. Engagement-hungry folks have upped their game accordingly, creating the toxicity that has social media users so concerned. What people really want, the Civic Signals project found, is a digital space where they feel welcome, connected, informed, and empowered to act on the issues that affect them. In a social media world optimized for clicks, such positive experiences happen almost despite the environment’s design, said Masullo. “Obviously, there’s nothing wrong with making money for the platforms,” she said. “But maybe you can do both, like you could also make money but as well not destroy democracy.”

Post-Roe, Americans seek tubal sterilizations — but barriers persist - Frances Vermillion has long known they don’t want children. They have considered getting a tubal ligation for “at least five years,” but three years ago settled for an intrauterine device (IUD) as a temporary contraceptive measure. But when the Supreme Court announced its decision in Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization overturning Roe v. Wade in June, the stakes felt higher. That’s when Vermillion finally scheduled the appointment. Vermillion is one patient among a wave of Americans rushing to get their tubes tied after the Dobbs decision. Anxious about abortion access, these patients are mobilizing online to spread the word about getting sterilized — while trying to surmount challenges that have long made it difficult to access the procedure, which is meant to be permanent but still allows for planned pregnancies through in vitro fertilization (IVF) or surrogacy. In the weeks after the Supreme Court’s decision, Google searches for Plan B and contraception increased; men rushed to get vasectomies. And though official data is not yet available, anecdotally, OB/GYNs across the country said they have seen tubal ligation requests spike, too. Dawn Bingham, an OB/GYN in Columbia, S.C., said she has seen a surge in child-free patients “calling around finding out who will do this for them, particularly as fast as possible.” Pam Parker, an OB/GYN in the Rio Grande Valley of Texas, also said she has seen an increase in requests for tubal ligations. “One of my patients who’s pretty young, never had any kids, just wrote me this super heartfelt email the other day about how she is terrified, and that she thinks she should just get her tubes tied,” Parker said. Jamie Tomasello, 42, had a tubal ligation on July 25, almost exactly one month after the Supreme Court decision was announced. Tomasello, who is bigender and lives in Ann Arbor, Mich., saw the procedure as both gender-affirming and important for her reproductive autonomy in a post-Roe world. “I realized if we had a worst-case scenario, I could be coerced into making a decision under the threat of potential pregnancy via rape,” Tomasello said, adding she received a bilateral salpingectomy to remove her fallopian tubes. As a person in her 40s with one child, Tomasello told The Post she did not receive much pushback from her physician, who went over other options for Tomasello, including asking her partner to have a vasectomy, a less invasive procedure that involves cutting the vas deferens. When Tomasello reaffirmed her commitment to receiving a tubal ligation, the doctor was willing to perform the procedure, she said, although he had to perform it in a nearby surgery center because the local Catholic hospital would not allow the procedure to be performed electively. But Vermillion and other patients in their 20s who do not have children said it was much harder to get approved for a tubal ligation. Some, like Vermillion, said they engaged in back-and-forth discussions with their doctors, and others have been denied the procedure entirely.

Health Care in America: Uncovering the Barriers to Progress - A patient’s visit to a health care provider should be a simple, straightforward process. And yet, many Americans face major obstacles obtaining necessary care. In fact, a recent Ipsos poll found that nearly one in three individuals have had difficulty accessing what their doctor prescribed because of different health insurance practices. That same poll found that three out of four Americans believe there are too many hurdles standing between themselves and their prescribed medications. “Insurance coverage is not providing the health security it’s meant to for many of the sickest and most vulnerable Americans,” said Stephen J. Ubl, president and chief executive officer of Pharmaceutical Research and Manufacturers of America (PhRMA), a trade group representing the country’s leading biopharmaceutical research companies. “Our research reveals a system where too often insurance policies and practices create barriers to life-saving care, leading patients to abandon medicines prescribed by their doctors. This has devastating results, including worse health outcomes for patients and higher costs throughout the health care system. Something must be done to ensure that everyday Americans have a say in today’s most pressing health care conversations.” As the November midterm elections approach, with 36 gubernatorial races and hundreds of state legislature seats up for grabs, health care affordability is top of mind for policymakers, health care decision-makers and voters alike. But as the health care debate unfolds, a recent poll found, 87% of Americans say politicians have lost touch with what the public needs from their health care. And, voters have a lot on their minds when it comes to their health care needs, including access to medications and care, rising out-of-pocket costs and greater transparency from insurers and providers. Seeking to answer this critical call, PhRMA and POLITICO Focus recently invited voters from many different walks of life to the Senator John Heinz History Center in the heart of downtown Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, to get a more holistic view of the American experience around health care, and uncover their personal concerns. During this near 90-minute moderated town hall, participants relayed their many deep frustrations, ranging from transparency and affordability to navigating the system first-hand. The resulting insights echoed what national polls show: The American public is frustrated with the barriers they face in the health care system, and everyday Americans are pleading for change.

Doctors’ reluctance to discuss anal sex is letting down young women, warn researchers - Clinicians’ reluctance to discuss possible harms of anal sex is letting down a generation of young women who are unaware of the risks, warn researchers in The BMJ today. Surgeons Tabitha Gana and Lesley Hunt argue that as anal intercourse becomes more common amongst heterosexual couples, failure to discuss it “exposes women to missed diagnoses, futile treatments, and further harm arising from a lack of medical advice.” They say healthcare professionals, particularly those in general practice, gastroenterology, and colorectal surgery, “have a duty to acknowledge changes in society around anal sex in young women, and to meet these changes with open neutral and non-judgmental conversations to ensure that all women have the information they need to make informed choices about sex.” In Britain, the National Survey of Sexual Attitudes and Lifestyle shows participation in heterosexual anal intercourse among 16 to 24 year-olds, rose from 12.5% to 28.5% over the last few decades. Similar trends are seen in the USA, where 30-44% of men and women report having anal sex. Young women cite pleasure, curiosity, pleasing the male partners and coercion as factors. Up to 25% of women with experience of anal sex report they have been pressured into it at least once. Anal intercourse is considered a risky sexual behaviour because of its association with alcohol, drug use and multiple sex partners. But it is also associated with specific health concerns, explain the authors. For example, increased rates of faecal incontinence and anal sphincter injury have been reported in women who have anal intercourse. Women are also at a higher risk of incontinence than men, due to their different anatomy, “The pain and bleeding women report after anal sex is indicative of trauma, and risks may be increased if anal sex is coerced,” they write. Effective management of anorectal disorders requires understanding of the underlying risk factors, and good history taking is key, they say. Yet clinicians may shy away from these discussions, influenced by society’s taboos. What’s more, NHS patient information on anal sex considers only sexually transmitted diseases, making no mention of anal trauma, incontinence, or the psychological aftermath of the coercion young women report in relation to this activity.

BA.5 climbs to 89% of US cases - The highly transmissible omicron subvariant BA.5 continues to gain dominance in the U.S. and now accounts for nearly 90 percent of all cases nationwide, according to the CDC's latest variant proportion estimates.The subvariant's prevalence has climbed steadily since early May, when it accounted for less than 2 percent of a ll cases. The CDC's most recent data, which covers the week ending Aug. 13, shows BA.5 accounts for 88.8 percent of all cases, up from 87.1 percent in the week ending Aug. 6 and 84.5 percent in the week ending July 30. While the subvariant's prevalence is still climbing, COVID-19 cases and hospitalizations are declining. The U.S. reported 100,747 daily average cases Aug. 16, marking an 18 percent decrease in the last 14 days, according to data tracked by The New York Times. Daily COVID-19 hospitalizations fell by 5 percent over the same time period.

There’s good news in the crowded field of Omicron subvariants: ‘Bad Ned’ is (nearly) dead—but Aeterna and Centaurus are on the rise – There’s good news for humans in the ongoing struggle against COVID variants—“Bad Ned” is almost dead. Bad Ned, as the Twitterverse christened Omicron subvariant BA.5.3.1 this summer, was on the rise this spring until fizzling out over the summer everywhere except Australia. Not much was known about Ned—whose name is derived from a mutation dubbed N:E136D. But researchers did worry about its potential to outcompete the globally dominant BA.5 Omicron subvariant, the most transmissible and immune-evasive variant—one that a famed researcher called the “worst version of the virus that we’ve seen.” That scenario didn’t play out, which is good news for humanity. But although Bad Ned is mostly dead, there are two new COVID subvariants that experts say could pose problems this fall. Last week, a new subvariant called BA.4.6—dubbed Aeterna by health care experts on Twitter—compromised 5.1% of sequenced COVID infections in the U.S., up from 4.6% the week prior. It’s been steadily rising, albeit slowly, since late May, when it comprised one-tenth of 1% of infections, according to data released Tuesday from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The variant is more prevalent in certain areas of the country, like the Midwest. Last week it comprised nearly 13% of cases in Nebraska, Kansas, Iowa, and Missouri, putting it in the number two spot behind BA.5, which comprised more than 80% of cases in that region and nearly 89% of cases nationally. But as with Bad Ned, next to nothing is known about Aeterna except for its potential to outcompete BA.5. The rising subvariant’s ability to push back on the dominant global subvariant demonstrates that greater transmissibility is likely, Dr. John Swartzberg, a professor at the Division of Infectious Diseases and Vaccinology at the University of California Berkeley’s School of Public Health, told Fortune. With the exceptions of BA.5 and Aeterna, all other variants are declining in the U.S., Swartzberg pointed out—including BA.4, a close relative of BA.5 that was expected to be more competitive. That subvariant comprised only 5.3% of U.S. infections last week, and peaked in mid-July around 13% Another potential threat: Omicron subvariant BA.2.7.5—dubbed Centaurus on Twitter this summer by experts. Both it and BA.4.6 could pose problems this fall, Dr. Bruce Y. Lee, a professor of health policy and management at the City University of New York School of Public Health, told Fortune. The number of cases of Centaurus in the U.S. is so small that the CDC doesn’t report it. But the subvariant comprises nearly 40% of cases in India, where it has outcompeted BA.5 and is second only to “stealth Omicron” BA.2, according to Our World in Data, a nonprofit international data repository affiliated with the University of Oxford in the United Kingdom. Centaurus has also shown an ability to compete with Aeterna in Australia, where the two are hovering around 2% of cases, experts pointed out this week, citing data from GISAID, an international research organization that tracks changes in COVID and the flu virus. The same scenario could play out in the U.S.—only time will tell.

Waning immunity, not BA.5, fueling most COVID-19 reinfections, data suggests --Around 98 percent of COVID-19 reinfections are occurring in patients previously infected with the virus more than 90 days ago, suggesting that waning immunity — rather than highly transmissible variants — is propelling the uptick, according to Helix, a lab that helps the CDC with viral surveillance. Epidemiologists and infectious disease experts have been closely monitoring trends in reinfections as the BA.5 variant dominates current cases. Peter Chin-Hong, MD, an infectious disease specialist and professor of medicine at the University of California San Francisco, told The Wall Street Journal that the 90-day reinfection standard is "completely out the window" due to BA.5's ability to reinfect. However, data from Helix shows the average time between infections increased from 230 days in April to 270 days in July. The latest surveillance from the lab, collected from July 31 to Aug. 7, further supports the notion that reinfections are linked to waning immunity. "New data reinforces our earlier conclusion that while reinfections are rising rapidly, ones that occur within 90 days of the original infection are rare," Helix said in an email to Becker's.

Covid-19: More than half of people infected with omicron may not know it - More than half of people infected with the omicron covid-19 variant may be unaware they are carrying the virus, raising the risk they could inadvertently spread the infection.“Having most people with covid-19 being unaware of their infection status, especially while actively transmissible, makes it likely a major driver of the ongoing pandemic,” says Susan Cheng at the Cedars-Sinai Medical Center in California.Cheng and her colleagues took blood samples from 2479 people who worked at or were registered at a medical centre in Los Angeles. At least two samples were taken per participant. The first was drawn before 15 December 2021, shortly before the area experienced a surge in covid-19 infections driven by the omicron variant.Subsequent samples were taken between 15 December 2021 and 4 May 2022, during which time omicron became the dominant variant and several subvariants, such as BA.4 and BA.5, emerged.Of the participants, 210 were found to have had covid-19 between the first time their blood was taken and subsequent samples, based on levels of coronavirus-specific antibodies in their blood. To ensure this antibody response wasn’t induced via vaccination – 94 per cent of the 210 participants had received at least one vaccine dose – the researchers specifically looked at the participants’ IgG-N levels. IgG-N is an antibody to a structural protein on SARS-CoV-2 that becomes elevated when someone is naturally exposed to the coronavirus, but stays low post-vaccination. At the time the participants’ blood was sampled for a second or subsequent time, more than half (56 per cent) of the 210 participants who had recently caught covid-19 – based on their IgG-N levels – were unaware they had been infected. Of the participants who didn’t know they had omicron, one in 10 (10 per cent) said they had experienced mild symptoms but attributed them to other infections, such as the common cold. Cheng says the findings highlight the importance of each individual working to reduce the likelihood of them transmitting the coronavirus, even if they think they aren’t infected. “Being thoughtful with self-testing and taking precautions especially after being knowingly exposed to covid or developing even mild symptoms that one might assume are not likely due to covid… these are actions that everyone can be empowered to take on and can make a difference in curbing spread of the virus,” she says.

First Symptoms of COVID: Early Signs of an Infection You Should Watch For – Multiple subvariants of the omicron strain are continuing to circulate across the country, with some studies indicating that they could potentially do a better job of evading existing vaccines and immunity.According to the latest update from the CDC, the BA.5 lineage of the omicron variant is now the most prevalent strain of the virus in the U.S., accounting for more than 88% of recent cases.BA.4, another omicron subvariant, is behind 5% of infections.As more cases occur, many are curious about what symptoms typically appear first with COVID and how quickly those symptoms can surface. According to Johns Hopkins Medicine, early symptoms of COVID-19 typically include fatigue, headache, sore throat or a fever. Some patients also experience a loss of taste or smell as an early or their first symptom.A study by researchers at the University of Southern California found fever may be first, as well as two other symptoms. It found the initial symptoms of COVID-19 are most likely a fever, followed by a cough and muscle pain. Then, those infected will likely experience nausea, vomiting or diarrhea. Unlike other respiratory illnesses such as MERS and SARS, COVID-19 patients will likely develop nausea and vomiting before diarrhea, the researchers found.Experts do caution patients that the severity, or even the type, of initial symptoms can vary widely from person to person.

Why does the FDA want us to take so many COVID self-tests? - Many people opt for the self-test option since you can now easily pick up self-tests and get an answer in 15 minutes in the comfort of your home. But if you take an at-home test and it's negative ... are you really in the clear? That's a question the CDC and the FDA are addressing in guidance issued yesterday on COVID protocols. And there's a little bit of confusion. The CDC says that if you were exposed to COVID, "instead of quarantining" you should wear a "high-quality mask for 10 days and get tested on day 5. If that test is negative, the CDC thinks you're good to go. And if you think you are sick and that it might be COVID-19, "isolate" until you get test results. The CDC states: "If your results are negative, you can end your isolation." The FDA, however, now says that one negative test isn't enough. Here's what the FDA advised in a "safety communication" released on August 11: If you have symptoms, you should take another test 48 hours later. If you don't have symptoms, you should take three tests, each 48 hours apart. Only if all those tests are negative should you consider yourself to be COVID-free. And the FDA isn't the only one to think repeat testing is the way to go. Infectious disease experts agree that the only way to be sure you don't have COVID after a negative home test, is to test again – either with another home test or a more sensitive PCR. We get it, repeat testing isn't the most convenient thing. The problem is that those home tests aren't especially sensitive at the beginning of a COVID infection. "But it's not that they don't work, it's just that we need a better understanding of what an effective testing regimen should be."The FDA made its recommendations based on a yearlong study it did in collaboration with the NIH and University of Massachusetts School of Medicine that was released preprint on medRxiv on August 6.That study showed that if you take a home test on the day you get a COVID infection, there's a good chance it's going to come back negative – meaning you could be infectious but a home test won't yet show it."The data very convincingly show" that if you take another test or two, you can be pretty sure if you have COVID or not, says Soni, who was the lead author on that paper. Soni says, "If you are concerned about having an infection and you have symptoms, you should take two tests 48 hours apart. If you do not have symptoms, you should take three tests, one every 48 hours. That's it." "Antigen tests [home tests] are really good at detecting infection when the viral load is above a certain threshold." But because of the various degrees of immunity most people now have, "the rate at which the viral load increases in your body is slower." After another few days though, the amount of virus in your body will probably be high enough to be picked up by a home test.

Jill Biden Prescribed Paxlovid to Treat COVID. Here’s What to Know About the Antiviral Drug – First Lady Jill Biden is experiencing "mild symptoms" after testing positive for COVID, the White House announced Tuesday. Biden, who has been twice-vaccinated and twice-boosted, has been prescribed Paxlovid, the same antiviral drug that President Joe Biden recently took when he contracted the virus. Following his treatment, the president caught a rebound case of COVID, a phenomenon characterized by a recurrence of symptoms following initial improvement and recovered Aug. 7. When Illinois Governor J.B. Pritzker contracted the illness in July, he was also prescribed Pfizer's anti-viral medication. Here’s what we know about the treatment. According to Yale Medicine, a full treatment cycle of Paxlovid is taken over a five-day period, and requires the patient to take a total of 30 pills, or six per day.A patient needs to take three pills at a time, and does so twice per day.Two of the pills are a medication known as “nirmatrelvir.” That drug, according to the CDC and Yale, inhibits production of an enzyme that the COVID virus needs to create certain key particles.The third pill, known as “ritonavir,” helps to boost the effectiveness of the medication by slowing down its metabolism by the liver, thereby allowing it to remain in the body longer.Similar to Tamiflu, Paxlovid is designed to be taken within the first five days after the onset of symptoms.Taking it after that point hinders the drug’s effectiveness, according to physicians. The Illinois Department of Public Health has cited studies that suggest that Paxlovid can reduce the risk of hospitalization by as much as 89%.According to Yale Medicine, that number comes from studies taken of patients that took the drug within three days of symptom onset.The FDA has authorized Paxlovid for any individuals that are 12 years of age or older and are at a high risk of severe illness.Those groups include individuals age 65 and older, or who have underlying conditions like cancer, diabetes, obesity, or others. A recent change to the EUA also allows state-licensed pharmacists to prescribe the medication, but officials still urge the public to consult with their regular physicians or to visit a test-to-treat site (locations of which can be found here), as pharmacists can only prescribe the medication in limited situations. According to Pfizer, Paxlovid is effective against omicron variants, including BA.5. In the event that Paxlovid is not immediately available, the FDA has also given an EUA for Merck’s Molnupiravir treatment. That treatment is used in more limited situations, and officials only advise patients to use it if Paxlovid isn’t available.

 Has the Latest COVID-19 Wave in the U.S. Peaked?- The latest coronavirus wave in the U.S. appears to be receding after a relentless plateau that lasted most of the summer months. The daily average of new coronavirus cases dropped to below 100,000 for the first time in roughly two months, according to data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Average daily infections as of Tuesday fell to roughly 99,000 – down from 130,000 a month ago. COVID-19 hospitalizations have also shown a slight decline, while about 400 Americans with the coronavirus die on average each day. The latest wave, which was fueled by several omicron subvariants, including BA.2.12.1 and BA.5, brought a steady onslaught of new infections, including among President Joe Biden and first lady Jill Biden, as well as increasing reinfections. While the wave looks to have crested, the numbers remain elevated with few mitigation measures in widespread use, begging the question: Is this the country’s “new normal?” Extended at this rate, it would mean a yearly death toll of about 145,000. Such a number would be lower than previous COVID-19 death tolls – 415,000 in 2021 and 350,000 in 2020 – but still among the top five causes of death in the U.S. “That's not necessarily where we would hope to be, I think, but I don't know where the appetite is to do better than that at this point,” says Jeffrey Shaman, an infectious disease modeler and epidemiologist at Columbia University. “It’s sort of human nature to get fatigued by things and also to normalize things that initially are abnormal, and I think that's kind of where we are.” Underscoring this mentality was the CDC’s COVID-19 guidance update last week, which ended quarantine recommendations for anyone who has a suspected exposure to the virus. The change did not spur from an improvement on the ground, as coronavirus deaths are widely considered by health officials to be too high and over 93% of counties are seeing high levels of coronavirus transmission. Instead, the agency cited the availability of coronavirus vaccines and treatments, high levels of immunity against the coronavirus as well as a desire to “limit social and economic impacts” in a report published alongside its decision. Richard Carpiano, a professor of public policy at the University of California, Riverside, calls the CDC’s changes “very disappointing.” “It seemed almost like a bit of a concession or a surrender to a normalization of: This is the COVID status quo,” he says. While Carpiano says he appreciates the changes could be an effort to meet people where they are – considering many Americans aren’t following the CDC’s guidelines anyway – he still says the agency should be setting a stronger example for the rest of the country. “We do need a parent in the room,”

‘Left to rot’: The lonely plight of long Covid sufferers - Thousands of long Covid patients across the globe are urging their governments to provide more help for the growing number of people facing lingering symptoms after infection. At least 90 long Covid groups exist around the world in 34 countries. Most are pushing for more research, improved clinical treatments and increased access to disability benefits, while others offer support and advice. The growing effort comes as new research suggests there are hundreds of millions of people likely suffering from long Covid and as some experts warn of potentially severe long-term economic and public health impacts of a condition that is still poorly understood. Governments worldwide quickly mobilized to slow early Covid-19 infections, but patients stuck with long-term, debilitating symptoms from the virus — sometimes left unable to work or perform basic daily tasks — feel national and international responses have ignored one of the pandemic’s most significant effects, nearly a dozen activists in 10 countries told POLITICO. “We are just left to rot,” said Chantal Britt, founder and president of Long Covid Switzerland. “That’s why all those organizations are popping up: There is no official help.” The Swiss government declined to comment on the record. Some studies suggest long Covid could affect as much as 30 percent of people who are infected — a fact that is not often publicly discussed when governments talk about which preventive measures are appropriate at this stage of the pandemic. The long-term effects of the virus could disable enough people to even have global economic impacts researchers worry. And while the U.S. has invested more than $1 billion to better understand the disease, patients in America and beyond — where most countries are investing less — feel confused and ignored as their numbers grow. Many advocates, who spend their days lobbying governments, are also patients contending with a range of symptoms, including extreme fatigue, shortness of breath, diarrhea and heart palpitations. Some, either because they have little access to basic health care or because they are getting little response from their government or doctors, are using Facebook and other social media sites to create support groups, share ideas and commiserate. “In terms of government … I don’t even think it’s even being discussed,” said Wachuka Gichohi, a long Covid advocate in Kenya who started the Long Covid Kenya Support Group on Facebook. Her group, like many that have formed online, is a place where patients share information and advice on the disease — especially useful to those who can’t afford a doctor. But social media support groups and patient initiatives are hardly enough, advocates say. They want governments to take seriously the risks of long Covid — through more research funding, clearer protocols to treat the syndrome, guaranteeing disability benefits for patients who cannot work and more broadly recognizing the public risk.

 Children infected with a mild case of COVID-19 can still develop long COVID symptoms - While research has revealed that children and adults hospitalized with COVID-19 are more susceptible to developing long COVID symptoms, a new study by researchers at UTHealth Houston found that children infected with COVID-19, but not hospitalized, still experienced long COVID symptoms up to three months past infection.The study was published in The Pediatric Infectious Disease Journal.Researchers examined data from volunteers across the state of Texas between the ages of 5 and 18 who were enrolled in the Texas CARES survey, which began in October of 2020 with the goal of assessing COVID-19 antibody status over time among a population of adults and children in Texas.Data for this study was collected before and after the vaccine rollout and during the waves of the Delta and Omicron variants. “We were interested in understanding if children impacted with an acute or severe infection of COVID-19 would go on to have persisting symptoms, or what we call long COVID,” said Sarah Messiah, PhD, MPH, first author of the study and professor of epidemiology, human genetics, and environmental sciences and director of the Center for Pediatric Population Health at UTHealth School of Public Health-Dallas. “This particular study is unique as the first population-based study in literature to report on prevalence of long COVID in children who have not been hospitalized with COVID-19.”A total of 82 pediatric volunteers (4.8% of the total 1,813) reported having long COVID symptoms – 1.5% showed symptoms that lasted between four and 12 weeks, including loss of taste and smell, fatigue, and cough. An additional 3.3% reported that symptoms such as loss of taste and smell, cough, and difficulty breathing persisted for longer than 12 weeks.“From this information we wanted to know, ‘What would put a child more at risk for long COVID and who is more susceptible to this?’ When we looked at risk factors of those who reported symptoms past 12 weeks, we found that children who were unvaccinated and who had obesity had a higher chance of developing long COVID. These findings are consistent with other literature that found children and adults who have comorbid health conditions and are unvaccinated are at a higher risk of being hospitalized for the virus,” Messiah said. Additionally, researchers found that children infected with COVID-19 before the emergence of the Delta variant were more at risk of developing long COVID. “If you had COVID-19 earlier in the pandemic, you were more at risk for longer symptoms. With Delta and Omicron, we did see a lot of children who ended up hospitalized, but their symptoms were less severe, and our results show they were also less likely to report persistent symptoms too,” Messiah said.

 COVID-19: N.B. reports Omicron BA.5 subvariant makes up 86% of new cases - New Brunswick reported five COVID-19 deaths in its latest weekly epidemiology update. That’s one up from the previous report. There were also 20 new hospital admissions for COVID-19 complications in the seven-day period ending Aug. 13, a slight increase of two from the previous week. There are now 27 active hospitalizations, with four in ICU. The highest proportion of those hospitalized are individuals aged 70-89. The province also said, “Individuals that are unprotected by vaccine continue to have the highest rate of hospitalization for COVID-19 and ICU admissions.” Public health also said it recorded 675 new PCR-confirmed cases of COVID-19, down from the previous week. In addition, about 86 per cent of COVID-19 samples that were randomly selected for analyses turned out to be the BA.5 variant, a subvariant of Omicron. That subvariant is now the dominant version of the virus globally. The percentage has been slowly increasing over the past few weeks, and is up by three per cent compared to last week. No samples turned out to be the original BA. 1 variant of Omicron.

Spanish scientists call to contain pandemic amid “eighth wave” of COVID-19 - Hundreds are dying of COVID-19 every week in Spain as the country suffers through the “eight wave” of the pandemic. Almost 1,000 people have lost their lives to the virus in Spain in the last fortnight alone, with 573 fatalities in the week beginning August 8 and 381 the previous week.Infections soared over the summer, reaching a peak of 22,000 daily cases at the start of July, and maintaining averages of 3,000 to 6,000 a day throughout August. This has pushed the total number of cases in Spain over the course of the pandemic to more than 13 million; according to The Lancet, Spain’s excess mortality is now 162,000. Each week, several thousand people are hospitalised with the virus in Spain.These figures are likely a significant underestimate due to Spain’s woefully inadequate testing regime. Since the Socialist Party (PSOE)-Podemos government ended all coronavirus restrictions on April 20, tests have become increasingly difficult to access, and those infected with COVID-19 are identifying themselves less and less to local and national health services. At the end of March, the requirement to self-isolate if testing positive was also scrappedSpain faces wave after wave of unending contagion due to the criminal mismanagement of the pandemic by the PSOE-Podemos government. While the media promotes it as “left” or “progressive,” it has followed the same policy of mass infection pursued by capitalist governments in Europe and internationally throughout the pandemic—notably by UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson, and US Presidents Donald Trump and then Joe Biden.The new wave of infection in Spain has largely been driven by the BA.4 and BA.5 subvariants, which have been the dominant strains in this country since mid-June. According to Angel Gil, a professor of Preventive Medicine and Public Health, the arrival of BA.4 and BA.5 have pushed Spain from a seventh to an eighth wave, particularly as “these subvariants are resistant to vaccine immunity.”As the virus continues to spread rapidly throughout Spain, numerous health experts have warned of the disastrous consequences of COVID-19 and called on the government to take action to contain it.“We are underestimating [the virus], because we can’t talk of normality when we are seeing this dramatic number of deaths,” declared Lorenzo Armenteros, spokesperson for the Spanish Society of General Practitioners, in mid-July. “More deaths, more hospital admissions and more people in the ICU [Intensive Care Unit] is always a risk. We are minimising the problem, we are absolutely minimising it.”

Monkeypox may be here to stay - It may be too late to stop monkeypox from circulating in the U.S. permanently. The Biden administration was caught off-guard when the CDC confirmed monkeypox in a Massachusetts man on May 18. It was part of the first major outbreak outside parts of Africa where the virus is endemic, an unusual event that quickly spun into a global health crisis. U.S. public health officials tracked the early cases around the country that followed. But a series of setbacks in the administration’s response — including clunky early testing protocols, slow vaccine distribution, a lack of federal funding to help state and local governments respond to the outbreak, and patchy communication with communities most affected by the virus — allowed the disease to gain a foothold among men who have sex with men, particularly those who have had multiple partners in a short period of time.Epidemiologists, public health officials and doctors now fear the government cannot eliminate the disease in that community, and they’re warning that they are running out of time to stop the virus from spreading in the U.S. population more broadly. “We now have so many infections in so many corners of the Earth that it will be very difficult to chase this down with vaccination campaigns,” said Sara Sawyer, a professor at the University of Colorado in Boulder who studies the spread of animal viruses to humans. “Not only do we not have enough vaccines, but if even some people go undetected or don’t have symptoms, they’re going to continue to spread it.” The Biden administration is still optimistic that it can stop that from happening in the U.S. “We’re definitely in the boat of trying to control this outbreak,” Demetre Daskalakis, deputy coordinator of the White House’s monkeypox response effort, told POLITICO. He said the outbreak has been “full of twists and turns” that have forced federal health officials to continually pivot. But, he says, “I’m pretty confident that we’re on the right track.” As infections have mounted, with 10,768 cases confirmed in 49 states, the District of Columbia and Puerto Rico as of Friday, the administration has made a series of moves to contain the virus and get vaccines to the 1.5 million people it estimates are most at risk. As of the end of July, 99 percent of the U.S. cases were among men, according to the CDC’s most recent available case data, and 94 percent were among men who had sex with men.

Humans may have passed monkeypox to their dog, report says - The first suspected case of human-to-dog transmission of monkeypox has been reported in Paris, leading the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention to update its website to include dogs among animals susceptible to catching the virus. The disease can spread between people and animals, said the CDC, which is studying which animals can contract monkeypox, which the United States declared a public health emergency this month. The CDC lists 10 animals, including dogs, that can be infected with monkeypox. The evidence of spread from humans to dogs, published in the Lancet,could lead to further guidance on how pets should be cared for if they’re in a living space with an infected person, Rosamund Lewis, the World Health Organization’s lead on monkeypox, told The Washington Post on Monday. Monkeypox usually spreads from human to human through direct contact with infectious rashes, scabs or bodily fluids. It can also be transmitted from respiratory secretions during prolonged face-to-face contact, or during intimate physical contact, such as kissing, cuddling or sex. The potential case of human-to-dog transmission was discovered in a 4-year-old Italian greyhound 12 days after its owners had an onset of monkeypox symptoms, according to the Lancet report. The dog had lesions on its skin and mucous membranes, pustules on its abdomen and a thin anal ulceration. Medical staffers matched one of the dog owners’ infections to the one detected in the animal. Researchers said the dog belonged to two men who were in a nonexclusive, cohabiting relationship with each other. One of the partners is a 44-year-old man, and his partner is a 27-year-old man, according to the report. The couple reported that they let their dog sleep in the bed with them and that they had prevented their pet from being in contact with other humans and pets based on the onset of their own symptoms. Monkeypox has been roaring through communities of men who have sex with men, increasing anxiety and concerns in cities with high populations of gay and bisexual men, and prompting the World Health Organization to advise those groups to limit sexual partners to reduce risk of exposure.

 CDC warns of E. coli outbreak in Michigan and Ohio : NPR -- At least 29 people have fallen ill during a fast-moving E. coli outbreak in Michigan and Ohio, while the source of the outbreak is still unknown.Of the confirmed cases, 15 are in Michigan and 14 are in Ohio. No deaths have been reported from the outbreak, but at least nine people have been hospitalized.The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said that those numbers are likely undercounted and that "the true number of sick people in this outbreak is likely higher."The CDC is asking for help in finding the source of the outbreak. If you're experiencingE. coli symptoms, you should write down everything you ate in the week before becoming sick and report your illness to your local health department.Symptoms of E. coli sickness vary from person to person but often include severe stomach cramps, diarrhea that is often bloody, vomiting and a fever. These symptoms usually start within three to four days after the bacteria is swallowed, the CDC said, and most people recover without treatment within a week.While the source of the current outbreak is unknown, some of the cases have been linked to each other through laboratory testing and results, the Michigan Department of Health and Human Services said.Michigan has seen a jump in E. coli infections compared to this same time last year. At least 98 cases have been recorded this August compared to 20 cases in the same time period last year."While reports of E. coli illness typically increase during the warmer summer months, this significant jump in cases is alarming," Dr. Natasha Bagdasarian, MDHHS chief medical executive, said in a statement. "This is a reminder to make sure to follow best practices when it comes to hand hygiene and food handling to prevent these kinds of foodborne illness."

Lyme disease rebounding in Maine this year - Cases of Lyme disease are rebounding in Maine, with the number of cases so far this year on pace to exceed the totals for 2020 and 2021. Maine recorded 1,433 Lyme cases through Aug. 14 this year, compared with 1,127 in all of 2020 and 1,510 in all of 2021, according to the Maine Center for Disease Control and Prevention. And the deer ticks that cause Lyme will actively search for hosts well into the autumn before becoming less active and burrowing beneath leaf litter for the winter. The increase in cases this year comes despite the dry summer in much of the state. Warm, humid and rainy weather brings out ticks, while dry weather is not as favorable for the arachnids. Griffin Dill, integrated pest management professional for the University of Maine Cooperative Extension’s tick lab, said it’s difficult to determine what is causing the increase in Lyme cases this year, but several factors may be at work. A rainy late spring and early summer may have contributed. Dill said even with mostly dry conditions in July and August, the ticks may have been better poised to survive a dry spell after the near-ideal weather conditions earlier this year. “The adult ticks in spring and early summer were highly active,” Dill said. “It started to tail off at the end of June, early July.” Dill said another factor may be that a higher percentage of deer ticks are carrying the bacteria that causes Lyme disease. The lab accepts tick samples from all over the state to test for infectious diseases, and the percentage of ticks found to be carrying the bacteria increased from 38 percent in 2019 to 45 percent so far this year. “We have more ticks testing positive for the pathogens than in previous years,” Dill said. The range of deer ticks also keeps expanding into new parts of the state, he said. “We are starting to see more of an increase in Down East, in Washington County, as far east as Calais,” Dill said. “The habitat along the coast is more conducive to ticks.” Cases of another tick-borne disease called anaplasmosis also are tracking higher this year, with 610 cases through Aug. 14, compared to 841 for all of 2021. Maine has reported 97 cases of babesiosis, the other disease most commonly associated with deer ticks, so far this year.

'I feel incredibly robbed': The debate and deadly effects of Lyme disease in Colorado --Samantha lost her husband Nate Watters on June 5, 2021, to complications from Lyme disease and mold poisoning. He was 36 years old. “When I look back, he 100% had a bullseye rash on his shin where he got bit,” Davis recalls. “We had no idea what the early symptoms of Lyme disease were, or what untreated Lyme could do to you.” A bullseye-shaped rash at the site of a tick bite is a common early indicator of Lyme disease. His major symptoms started more than four years ago on a rafting trip near Glenwood Springs. Watters complained that his hands hurt — a symptom easily explained away after a day of rafting and rowing — but the pain never really got better. “His skin just stopped staying on his hands; his hands turned really raw,” says Davis. That was just the first of what would become years of confusing and mysterious symptoms. He endured rapid weight loss, swelling in his face, lesions all over his body, extreme fatigue, graying hair, muscle pain and more. Doctors tests Watters for numerous infectious diseases but only one came up positive — Lyme disease. “The doctor at the time said that Lyme disease isn’t common in Colorado, and so it was probably a false positive and wrote it off,” Davis remembers. “The doctors kept saying to him, ‘This isn’t what Lyme does to people’, and he was like ‘I’ve tested everything, I’ve seen dozens of doctors, I’ve spent thousands of dollars, this is the only thing that has come up positive.’” Lyme disease's controversy among the scientific community is complicated. According to the Colorado Tick-Borne Disease Awareness Association, Lyme Disease is a multi-systemic disease caused by infections with a spirochetal bacteria in humans, pets and other animals. It is most commonly transmitted by the blacklegged tick, also known as the deer tick, and is the most common vector-borne illness in the United States. Here’s where things get controversial. “I think that part of that disparity comes from the fact that different groups aren’t always defining Lyme disease the same way,” explains Naylor. “The bacteria that causes Lyme disease in the strictest sense is called Borrelia burgdorferi. It became technically true to say that there is no Lyme disease in Colorado if you chose to define Lyme disease very strictly as only something caused by Borrelia burgdorferi.” But a lot of scientists and doctors are defining Lyme disease that way. Most are, in fact. “Lyme disease is carried by a specific kind of tick, the carrier for Lyme disease does not naturally occur in Colorado,” says Shiran Hershcovich, an entomologist and Lepidopterist Manager at Butterfly Pavilion in Westminster. “So, Lyme disease transmission here is rare to non-existent. It is currently believed that any reported cases of Lyme disease in Colorado are actually coming from visits to nearby states.” However, some professionals, like Naylor, are embracing a broader definition of the disease, expanded to include new genospecies of the Borrelia burgdorferi bacteria.

Areas of CLE, NE Ohio infested with invasive bug (WJW) — A beautiful but invasive pest causing concern in many parts of the U.S. has taken up residence in several areas of Cleveland. With its egg-laying season weeks away, authorities are working to stamp out the bug’s potential takeover.Experts declared three areas of spotted lanternfly infestations in Mohican Park on Triskett Road, Paramelt on Elmwood Avenue and St. Joseph Cemetery on Detroit Road, according to Tom deHaas, Erie County Agriculture Natural Resource Educator. Cleveland Urban Forestry, Cleveland Division of Park Maintenance, Cleveland Metroparks and a team from the Ohio State University on Aug. 11 met with Cleveland park maintenance employees to teach them how to identify the bug in each stage of life and its favored host plants. The insects feed on the trunk and branches of woody plants, causing them to wilt and die. They also secrete substances that can build up under plants and promote growth of black, sooty mold.The Ohio Department of Agriculture warns that spotted lanternflies are fond of grapevines, fruit trees and hops, making them a great concern for the grape and wine industry. They’re also fond of oak, pine, poplar and walnut. DeHaas, who is a team member of OSU’s Extension program, says it’s important to bring attention to the problem by educating the public on how to spot the bug and its eggs, which are due any time from mid-September through the first frost when the adults die.He says infestations can grow quickly due to the egg masses’ ability to lie dormant for months through a cold winter and the adult bugs not having many predators in the area.He says females are seen with a large yellow abdomen when it’s almost time to lay her eggs.Cleveland isn’t the only area in Ohio seeing the invasion of the new inhabitants. Mahoning, Jefferson and Lorain counties are dealing with the same issue.Some states, like Pennsylvania where the bug was first detected in the U.S. in 2014, have decreed quarantines, which prohibit moving the bug at any life stage and regulates moving items the insect may live on like firewood or vehicles. With the problem also in New York, U.S. Senator Chuck Schumer is pushing to increase federal support for the USDA’s Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service program by over $22 million in 2023 to mitigate invasive species, like the SLF.The Ohio Department of Agriculture urges anyone who finds an egg mass to remove it by scraping it with a hard or rigid tool and putting it into a container of rubbing alcohol.

EPA finds new risks with dicamba weedkiller - The widely used weedkiller dicamba poses a previously unknown risk to honeybees, EPA said in a draft assessment of the pesticide’s potential dangers to wildlife.In the draft ecological risk assessment released today, EPA said recent toxicity data indicates a “potential chronic risk concern” for adult honeybees exposed to higher levels of dicamba than previously reviewed. There’s also additional risk to fish in limited circumstances, the agency said.The draft assessment, open to public comment for 60 days, is part of the ongoing routine registration review for dicamba, a popular herbicide farmers use on soybeans and other crops genetically modified to tolerate it. EPA released the draft along with an updated human health risk assessment that echoed earlier findings. On the other hand, EPA said, new information eased previous concerns about risks to birds from dicamba spread on genetically modified soybeans, and no risks were identified for aquatic nonvertebrates. Today’s draft addresses only wildlife not federally listed as threatened or endangered, EPA said. The primary concern with dicamba, EPA said, is exposure to plants when the chemical drifts away from the fields where it’s intended. Since its use on genetically modified crops began around 2016, dicamba has developed a history of killing non-genetically modified crops on neighboring fields, for instance.“Numerous non-target plant incidents have been reported to be associated with the use of dicamba,” the agency said in a news release. “EPA continues to monitor the incidents information for dicamba.” Although EPA has approved its continued use, the agency has made label modifications to try to rein in unintended damage — to limited effect. Dicamba’s manufacturer, Bayer, has supported those efforts while rebuffing critics’ call for a ban on so-called over-the-top use on growing crops (Greenwire, Dec. 22, 2021). The Center for Biological Diversity said in a statement today that the findings underscore the need to further restrict uses of dicamba. The findings “confirm dicamba’s widespread harms to plants and animals, particularly in over-the-top applications, and raise grave concerns about the ecological damage caused by the Trump administration’s 11th hour approval of this dangerous pesticide,” said Nathan Donley, the CBD’s environmental health science director.

Michigan lifts "no contact" recommendation two weeks after spill of toxic chemicals into Huron River - Two weeks since toxic and carcinogenic chemicals were dumped into the Huron River by Tribar Technologies, an auto parts company in Wixom, Michigan, officials lifted a ‘no contact’ recommendation with river water after a state investigation indicated below safety standard concentrations of the chemicals in question.The spill took place on the evening of Friday, July 29, but was not reported by the company until the afternoon of Monday, August 1, according to an investigation report published by Michigan’s Department of Environment, Great Lakes and Energy (EGLE) last Friday. The Huron River flows for 130 miles through southeastern Michigan, passing through major urban areas, including Ann Arbor and Ypsilanti, before emptying into Lake Erie.About 10,000 gallons of wastewater containing 3892 pounds of hexavalent chromium were released from Tribar’s Plant No. 5 and flowed through the Wixom Wastewater Treatment Plant before entering into Norton Creek and the Huron River. Hexavalent chromium, widely used in industrial production, is known to be toxic and cancer-causing and can damage many of the body’s organs.If most of the untreated hexavalent chromium had flowed through the Huron River, it would have become a major threat to the water safety of the more than three million people downstream, including those in Ann Arbor, which draws drinking water from the river.EGLE has organized testing of water samples collected along the river from Wixom to Barton Pond of Ann Arbor since Tuesday, August 2. Among the 146 samples collected over the course of four days, three samples came back with positive signs of hexavalent chromium. Two of these samples were collected from Hubbell Pond in Milford, with concentrations of 11 parts-per-billion (ppb) and 9 ppb from the surface and the bottom of the lake respectively. The third sample was from surface water in Kent Lake with a concentration of 5 ppb.In six other water samples, total chromium (sum total of hexavalent chromium and the relatively less toxic trivalent chromium) was also detected. These samples were also collected from Norton Creek and Kent Lake with concentrations ranging from 1.1 to 2.5 ppb.Per guidelines from the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), drinking water’s standard for total chromium is 100 ppb. As the detected concentrations of chromium in all samples are lower than the EPA standard, the Michigan Department of Health and Human Services (MDHHS) assessed that it does not constitute a risk for human health and lifted the recommendation for no contact with Huron River water announced on August 2, a day after the Tribar release was reported.The EPA chromium standard used to be 50 ppb, which was consistent with the current guideline value suggested by the World Health Organization (WHO), but was raised to 100 ppb in 1991. At the same time, California Office of Environmental Health Hazard Assessment (OEHHA) established in 2011 that the Public Health Goal (PHG) for hexavalent chromium should be 0.02 ppb, orders of magnitude lower than the EPA standard and the measured concentrations of chromium in Kent Lake and Hubbell Pond samples. Determination of this PHG concentration was based on estimates of the amount of hexavalent chromium in drinking water that “would pose no significant health risk to individuals consuming the water on a daily basis over a lifetime.”

State of emergency declared in Metro Detroit following failure of huge water transmission main - On Sunday morning, the governor of Michigan declared a state of emergency for four counties north of Detroit following a water main break on Saturday near the Great Lakes Water Authority’s (GLWA) Lake Huron water treatment facility. A tweet from the governor in the early afternoon said: “I’ve declared a state of emergency for Lapeer, Macomb, Oakland, and St. Clair counties following yesterday’s water main break resulting in a Boil Water Advisory.” Whitmer’s tweet also said: “We’re drawing on every resource we have and taking every action necessary to get impacted families the help they need.” A press release from the governor’s office said the state of emergency “authorizes the Michigan State Police, Emergency Management and Homeland Security Division (MSP/EMHSD) to coordinate and maximize state efforts to assist.” As of this writing, the GLWA reported that at least “some of the waterflow/pressure” had been restored to all areas, but the crisis was still severe enough to maintain the boil water advisory for seven communities, or 130,000 people stretching from Burtchville Township along Lake Huron, about 60 miles northeast of Detroit, down to Rochester Township in the suburbs of the Motor City. The water authority said that it was able to restore pressure by rerouting the direction that water is pumped in the transmission system. Meanwhile, maintenance crews have isolated the break and started pumping water out of the area to prepare the segment of the system to be replaced. The new pipe is on a truck from Texas to Michigan, the GLWA said, and a complete restoration of service is expected to take up to two weeks, “one week for the repairs and an additional week for water quality testing.” The water main failure was first reported by GLWA early Saturday. The regional water authority said it had “discovered a leak on a 120-inch water transmission main that distributes finished drinking water from its Lake Huron Water Treatment Facility to communities in the northern part of GLWA’s drinking water service area.” The GLWA report said the leak was located in the vicinity of Burtchville Township, approximately one mile west of the treatment facility. Due to the drop in water pressure, GLWA initially issued a “precautionary Boil Water Advisory” on Saturday for 23 communities and impacting 935,000 people. This wider area included the city and township of Flint, already a watchword across the world for the lead-in-water crisis that devastated the population in 2015, as well as the cities of Pontiac, Auburn Hills, Troy and Rochester Hills in heavily populated Oakland County, and Sterling Heights, Utica and Clinton Township in Macomb County, home to many auto plants and auto workers, including the largest Stellantis assembly plant, Sterling Heights Assembly Plant (SHAP). Under the advisory, residents have been instructed not to drink the water without boiling it first. The GLWA guidelines specified: “Residents must bring all water to a boil for at least one minute and then let it cool before using. Boiled, bottled or disinfected water should be used for drinking, making ice, washing dishes, brushing teeth, and preparing food until further notice.”

Monsoon Rainfall Waterlogs Vegas, While Pacific Northwest Braces For Heat Dome - Monsoon Rainfall Waterlogs Vegas, While Pacific Northwest Braces For Heat Dome Wild weather across the western part of the US has sparked one of the worst monsoon seasons in Las Vegas in a decade, while California and parts of the Pacific Northwest brace for a heat dome that could push power grids to the max. Late last week, intense thunderstorms flooded parts of southern Nevada, including Vegas. Videos on social media show floodwater pouring into at least one casino while parking garages were transformed into rivers. This comes two weeks after another storm wreaked havoc on Sin City. Clark County officials report the latest series of storms in the Vegas metro area has meant the wettest monsoon season in a decade. Besides the flooding, this is good news for the region suffering from extreme drought. “That makes this the wettest monsoon season in ten years,” the National Weather Service tweeted. Meanwhile, near-record heat is expected this week in California’s Central Valley and parts of the Pacific Northwest as a heat dome builds across the region, worsening the drought-stricken area and pushing power grids to critical levels. California’s Central Valley could record temperatures as high as 109 degrees Fahrenheit. Another pocket of heat will scorch western Washington. Bob Oravec, a senior branch forecaster with the Weather Prediction Center, said Sacramento could hit 105 Fahrenheit by mid-week, and Redding could record 109 Fahrenheit. “It is going to be well above average,” Oravec said. “The heat will also eventually spread to the Northwest and Northern Plains.” A linger heat dome over California could stress power grids. Demand is expected to peak Monday at around 43.8 gigawatts and could even jump to 45.2 gigawatts by mid-week, said grid operator California Independent System Operator. In anticipation of increasing cooling demand, Southern California’s SP15 hub’s on-peak power prices soared 29% to $149.70 a megawatt for Monday, the highest in nearly a year.

Hundreds of thousands drop flood insurance as rates rise - When the Federal Emergency Management Agency overhauled its flood insurance program last year, it wanted to encourage homeowners to buy coverage by showing them more precisely the risk that each property faces of being flooded. But instead, hundreds of thousands of people have dropped the flood policies they were buying through FEMA, raising concerns that an unprecedented number of households are financially exposed to flood damage. Records reviewed by E&E News show that more than 425,000 people have discontinued the coverage they had through FEMA’s National Flood Insurance Program since October, when FEMA began to raise rates on millions of properties to reflect flood risk more accurately. FEMA also lowered premiums on hundreds of thousands of properties where rates were too high. The NFIP provides most of the nation’s flood insurance and has been trying for years to increase the number of households with flood coverage as climate change and development intensify flood damage. Flood insurance is sold separately from homeowners’ insurance policies. But FEMA’s own records and interviews with insurance agents indicate that so far, the restructuring is having the opposite effect, prompting some people to let their policies expire when faced with higher insurance premiums. “It’s going to backfire in their face,” said Tammy Whitehead, an insurance agent in New Orleans who is critical of FEMA’s restructuring. The number of NFIP policies dropped from 4.96 million on Sept. 30, 2021, to 4.54 million as of June 30 — a decline of nearly 9 percent. It is unclear how many people who dropped NFIP policies have bought flood coverage through a private insurer. Tuna Siraci, president of insurance brokerage National Flood Insurance LLC, said insurance companies are taking advantage of the rising NFIP rates and are starting to offer flood coverage, which insurers had avoided for decades because the losses are catastrophic and unpredictable. “The portion of private flood insurance is increasing rapidly,” Siraci said. FEMA told E&E News that “there are many factors that could influence this drop in policyholders, including the economic impact of the pandemic, inflation, the housing market, affordability or purchasing flood insurance from the private market.”

Wait a minute. A potato shortage? In Idaho? Here’s why. - Idaho has a potato shortage. If you haven't heard about it already or noticed fewer and fewer potatoes in your grocery store's produce section, you will soon.  So, what's the problem? The weather. Not this year’s weather, mind you. It’s the weather from over a year ago that’s to blame.  “I'm not sure if you remember last June, but we had some just unbelievably hot temperatures here in Idaho. It did a number on our potato crop,” said Jamey Higham, president and CEO of the Idaho Potato Commission. “And so, our yields were significantly down last year.”  Now, keep that in mind when you learn that a previous year's potato crop cycle is supposed to last through the following August. And before the 2022 harvest comes into the pipeline (it’s just now beginning), consumers are facing the shortage from last year's crop.”There is not a gap. There are just less potatoes being shipped right now than there normally are this time of year because of the shorter supply that we started the season with,” said Higham.With Idaho potatoes being a multi-billion-dollar industry, Higham has had to explain to more than a few people lately why last year’s crop was considerably lower than expectations, and the fact that the remains from the crop are trickling to stores in Idaho and beyond.  “As the fresh market goes, the grocery stores – your Albertsons, Walmart, WinCo, that stuff – it is not just Idaho that's having high prices right now. It's the other states as well.” And as for the higher prices, Higham says they could remain higher for a while longer.“As we get down to the end, there are very strong prices out there right now and potatoes are still supply-and-demand. And when the supply is lower, the prices go up and it will probably stay that way,” said Higham. “I don't anticipate these prices staying high long term. And once harvest gets under way, it'll get back down into a better spot. But I do expect prices to be strong all year this year.”

Too Hot to Work, Too Hot to Play - Someday, we were told, we would feel the effects of all the gas and coal we burned on this Earth. Someday we would face heat waves hotter and longer than we have ever known. Someday has arrived. This summer, at work and at play, indoors and outdoors, in neighborhoods rich and poor, Americans are facing a persistent new reality: extreme heat. In June and July the country experienced temperatures ranging from 90 to 111 degrees. At least 42 different locations in the U.S. set or tied their hottest July on record this year, according to datafrom the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), via the Southeast Regional Climate Center. And it will only get worse. If greenhouse gas emissions continue apace—something the passage of the recent Inflation Reduction Act is intended to stave off—the frequency of extreme heat conditions could double by 2065. Extreme heat kills more than 18,750 Americans every year and is the deadliest weather-related event. “It’s not lightning, it’s not flooding, it’s not hurricanes and tornadoes, it’s heat,” said NOAA climatologist Barbara Mayes Boustead. The death toll jumps when considering causes beyond heat stroke, like work casualties. Heat exposure is responsible for up to 2,000 worker fatalities annually.Not only is extreme heat deadly, it’s expensive. It ignites wildfires, triggers droughts, precipitates floods, provokes power outages, whips up rain, shuts off the internet, inflames heart conditions, melts runways and eats up crops. In 2021, the Atlantic Council’s Adrienne Arsht-Rockefeller Foundation Resilience Center estimated that the economic loss from heat in the country would be at least $100 billion annually. This will double by 2030 and quintuple by 2050. ​​By that time, American bodies will learn to sweat and tan. American work will be reshaped around heatwaves and cooling breaks. And American life will be air-conditioned, shaded and slowed. But the body can only do so much, and the most vulnerable will be the worst off.

Rise in extreme heat will hit minority communities hardest - New climate projections released yesterday by a nonprofit research group and analyzed by E&E News show that extreme heat will intensify across the United States — and that neighborhoods with large minority populations will suffer far more than neighborhoods with large white populations. The data and analysis add new detail to research showing the disparate impact of climate change and particularly of extreme heat. In Miami-Dade County, parts of Homestead are projected to experience an additional 45 days of extreme heat by 2053 compared to the number of extreme-heat days in 2023, according to a neighborhood-level analysis of the nation by the First Street Foundation. That’s a bigger increase than any other U.S. neighborhood is projected to face. Up Florida’s Atlantic coast on exclusive Fisher Island, where the population is 79 percent white, rising temperatures won’t be nearly as bad. The Miami-Dade County community will experience only 32 additional days of extreme heat by 2053, according to the First Street Foundation. The disparities are based on broad geographic patterns, said Jeremy Porter, the First Street Foundation’s research director. Minorities are concentrated in southern states and big cities — places that will see more extreme heat. “It has a lot to do with where minorities live,” Porter said. “They have a lot more exposure.” The New York nonprofit released the first analysis of how extreme heat will affect each of 32,000 ZIP codes in the continental United States in 2023 and in 2053. The analysis assumes a moderate rate of climate change and projects the number of days per year of hazardous heat in 2023 and in 2053. First Street developed the data from an unprecedented analysis of how extreme heat affects more than 100 million individual properties. First Street’s property-level information is publicly available and builds on its previous analyses showing the risk each property faces from flooding and wildfire. E&E News combined First Street’s data with Census Bureau records to analyze racial and ethnic disparities in exposure to extreme heat. The disparities are significant.The average ZIP code will experience 17 days in 2023 when the heat index exceeds 100 degrees Fahrenheit. But ZIP codes where a majority of the residents are a racial or ethnic minority will experience an average of 27.5 days with such extreme heat, E&E News found. ZIP codes where more than 90 percent of the residents are white will experience an average of 10.5 extreme-heat days.

The U.S. could see a new 'extreme heat belt' by 2053 - An "extreme heat belt" reaching as far north as Chicago is taking shape, a corridor that cuts through the middle of the country and would affect more than 107 million people over the next 30 years, according to new data on the country's heat risks.The report, released Monday by the nonprofit research group First Street Foundation, found that within a column of America's heartland stretching from Texas and Louisiana north to the Great Lakes, residents could experience heat index temperatures above 125 degrees Fahrenheit by 2053 — conditions that are more commonly found in California's Death Valley or in parts of the Middle East.The projections are part of First Street Foundation's new, peer-reviewed extreme heat model, which shows that most of the country will have upticks in the number of days with heat index temperatures above 100 degrees over the next 30 years as a result of climate change. It has already been a sweltering summer for much of the U.S. andEurope. The National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration’slatest monthly climate report, published Aug. 8, found that last month was the country’s third-hottest July since record-keeping began nearly 130 years ago.Researchers at First Street used their model to create an online tool called Risk Factor to give people hyperlocal snapshots of how their property is affected by extreme temperatures and what could change over the next three decades. The organization previously created similar resources to evaluate specific addresses’ risks from wildfires and flooding.The new model uses high-resolution measurements of land surface temperatures and incorporates the effects of canopy cover, proximity to water and other factors that determine local temperature variability. Future heat risk is then calculated using different forecast scenarios for greenhouse gas emissions in the decades to come. The researchers looked at the seven hottest days expected for any property this year and calculated what the equivalent could be in 30 years. Across the country, they found that, on average, a community's seven hottest days are projected to become the location's 18 hottest days by 2053.The most pronounced shift was found in Miami-Dade County, Porter said, where the area's seven hottest days, with heat index temperatures at 103 degrees, are projected to increase to 34 days at that temperature in 30 years But in addition to widespread increases in heat exposure, First Street's model also identified what Porter and his colleagues call an "extreme heat belt" that covers about one-quarter of the country's land area.About 8.1 million U.S. residents in 50 counties are at risk of experiencing heat index temperatures over 125 degrees. But by 2053, the projection expands to more than 1,000 counties across an area that is home to more than 107 million people, according to First Street’s model. The agricultural impact of such a wide-ranging heat belt in the country's heartland is particularly worrisome, said Noboru Nakamura, a professor of geophysical sciences at the University of Chicago, who was not involved with First Street's research.

California is due for a 'megaflood' that could drop 100 inches of rain - A mention of California might usually conjure images of wildfires and droughts, but scientists say that the Golden State is also the site of extreme, once-a-century “megafloods” — and that climate change could amplify just how bad one gets.The idea seems inconceivable — a month-long storm that dumps 30 inches of rain in San Francisco and up to 100 inches of rain and/or melted snow in the mountains. But it has happened before — most recently in 1862 — and if history is any indicator, we’re overdue for another, according to research published Friday in Science Advances that seeks to shed light on the lurking hazard.“This risk is increasing and was already underappreciated,” said Daniel Swain, one of the study’s two authors and a climate scientist at the University of California at Los Angeles. “We want to get ahead of it.”In such an event, some in the Sierra Nevada could end up with 25 to 34 feet of snow, and most of California’s major highways would be washed out or become inaccessible.Swain is working with emergency management officials and the National Weather Service, explaining that it’s not a question of whether a megaflood will happen but when.“It already has happened in 1862, and it probably has happened about five times per millennium before that,” he said. “On human time scales, 100 or 200 years sounds like a long time. But these are fairly regular occurrences.”His paper built on the work of other scientists, who examined layers of sediment along the coastline to determine how frequently megafloods occurred. They found evidence of extreme freshwater runoff, which washed soil and stony materials out to sea. Those layers of material became buried beneath years of sand. The depth of the layers and the sizes of the pebbles and other material contained in them offer insight into the severity of past floods. “It hasn’t happened in recent memory, so it’s a little bit ‘out of sight, out of mind,’ ” Swain said. “But [California is] a region that is in the perfect area … in a climatological and geographic context.”On the West Coast, there commonly are atmospheric rivers, or streams of moisture-rich air at the mid-levels of the atmosphere with connections to the deep tropics. For a California megaflood to occur, you’d need a nearly stationary zone of low pressure in the northeast Pacific, which would sling a succession of high-end atmospheric rivers into the California coastline. “These would be atmospheric river families,” Swain said. “You get one of these semi-persistent [dips in the jet stream] over the northeast Pacific that wobbles around for a few weeks and allows winter storm after winter storm across the northeast Pacific into California.”The paper warns of “extraordinary impacts” and reports that such an episode could transform “the interior Sacramento and San Joaquin valleys into a temporary but vast inland sea nearly 300 miles in length and [inundate] much of the now densely populated coastal plain in present-day Los Angeles and Orange Counties.” Swain’s simulations showed the odds of a megaflood occurring are far greater in winters dominated by El Niño than in winters influenced by La Niña. El Niño is a large-scale chain-reaction atmosphere-ocean pattern that can dominate the atmosphere for several years at a time, and it usually begins with higher-than-normal sea surface temperatures in the eastern tropical Pacific. “When you look at the top eight monthly precipitation totals in simulations, eight out of eight occurred in El Niño years,” Swain said.

Drought Severity Expands Deeper into New England – NBC Boston -The storm center that strengthened east of New England and moved into the Maine coast delivered a soaking rain to much of northern New England during the overnight Wednesday night into Thursday morning.As the showers attempted to push south, though, they met incoming dry air, pulled from the eastern Great Lakes in the storm’s counter-clockwise flow of air and into southern New England under the belly of the storm.Of course, the absence of significant rain in southern New England means no easing of the extreme drought condition in this week’s Thursday morning drought monitor issuance from the university/government consortium that updates the product weekly, in fact, extreme drought has expanded west into north-central Massachusetts, Rhode Island and eastern Connecticut, with severe drought expanding into the Berkshires and northern Connecticut.

In America’s fastest-growing metro, a rising fear water will run out— A century after her grandfather arrived to eke a living out of the hot, red dirt here, Susan Savage still structures her life around the groundwater. Twice daily, she checks the well her family’s pasturelands, orchards and animals depend on, watching its level drop in recent years amid punishing drought.These days, she and some others in this rural town of fewer than 1,000 people are casting a wary eye 15 miles south, where St. George, the nation’s fastest-growing metropolitan area, is churning out houses — and scrambling to find new water sources to support that boom, including deep underground near here.St. George and surrounding Washington County, two hours northeast of Las Vegas in Utah’s hottest and driest corner, was once known mostly as the gateway to Zion National Park. Now its stunning landscape is drawing droves of retirees and remote workers from northern Utah and beyond. The county’s population of about 180,000 is expected to more than double by 2050 — even though its single water source, the Virgin River basin, is dwindling as the West remains locked in the worst drought in 1,200 years.A plan to pipe water from the drying Colorado River remains far off amidobjections from other states. The county, which state officials say has a decade before demand outstrips supply, has adopted new water restrictions. It is also building reservoirs and considering reusing wastewater. But as the future grows more tenuous, the county’s primary water provider is now seeking state permission to drill wells far beneath rural reaches, sparking protest from small towns and landowners who fear the region’s breakneck growth will imperil their shallower groundwater.“This seems to be some level of insanity to me that you continue to allow unabated growth at the same time you’re dealing with this unprecedented drought,” said Don Fawson, president of the Leeds Domestic Water Users Association, which provides drinking water to about 430 households in town. “Rather than trying to find all these sources of water, we ought to be controlling the growth.”Water disputes have run through the American West since European settlement, but never have the stakes been so high. Cities are swelling as climate change deepens a two-decade drought. The Colorado River, which hydrates 40 million people, is so compromised that federal officials have demanded the states that depend on it, including Utah,devise a plan this month to cut an amount equal to one-third of its annual flow. That has left managers across the region jostling to safeguard their share.

‘All bad options’ as Biden administration faces Western water crisis - Entrenched drought and chronic overuse have driven water levels on the Colorado River so low that the Biden administration may be forced to impose massive cuts to water deliveries in seven Western states — a politically perilous move certain to inflame tensions with farmers, tribes and cities. Federal officials have given the states until Aug. 16 to come up with a plan to swiftly conserve as much as a third of the river’s flows, the amount they believe is necessary to keep Lake Powell — a key reservoir along the Arizona-Utah border — from reaching disastrous levels next year. But the pain of the potential solutions is so huge that the states are struggling to reach a deal, according to eight people familiar with the discussions. Now, the Biden administration must decide whether to step in to make the unpopular choices instead. The solutions could include politically incendiary steps that previous administrations have only threatened: making steep cuts to water deliveries that would hit tribes and cities first, telling farmers how they can use water that they legally own, or cutting water deliveries across the board, which could get tied up in court. But inaction could lead to worse consequences: hydropower turbines crucial to the stability of the Western electrical grid grinding to a halt, cities from Phoenix to Los Angeles losing a major source of water, large swaths of highly productive farmland drying up and a Grand Canyon with no water flowing through it. “It’s all risks,” said John Fleck, a water policy professor at the University of New Mexico. “I don’t see anything that’s not a risk. It’s all bad options at this point.” Even before the current, 22-year drought gripped the basin, farmers, ranchers, cities and industries were using more water than the Colorado River reliably carried each year. But climate change has shrunken the river’s flows roughly 20 percent in the past two decades, and scientists predict they will shrink nearly 10 percent more with each additional degree of temperature rise. The 250,000 square mile basin is aridifying, with soil now so dry that, when rain falls or snow melts, the water is quickly soaked up by the ground before it can make it to the river. The speed with which the crisis has unfolded on the Colorado River is testing a region that has, for the past two decades, overwhelmingly been a climate adaptation success story. The states and other major players have come to see their fates as tied and have opted to work together rather than duke it out in court to preserve their share of shrinking supplies. But now, states are struggling to agree. Colorado, Wyoming, Utah and New Mexico offered no tangible water reductions in a plan they put forth in July, arguing that they are already using far less than they’re entitled to and have limited abilities to reduce use quickly. Instead, they’re pointing their fingers at the Lower Basin states of Arizona, California and Nevada, insisting they must act first. Nevada uses only a small share of the river’s water and has made great strides in conservation, but Arizona and California are still far from a deal, hobbled by their own internal politics and the knowledge that the need — and expense — of saving massive quantities of water won’t end after just one year. The federal government has, in the past, threatened to act unilaterally if states can’t reach a deal. The Interior Department holds ultimate authority over Colorado River deliveries in the Lower Basin and, through its Bureau of Reclamation, controls key infrastructure up and down the river. The threat of federal intervention by the Bush administration prodded states into agreeing on new operating guidelines in 2005, and a threat from the Trump administration helped carry a 2019 deal among the states to cut water use across the finish line. In June, Bureau of Reclamation Commissioner Camille Touton issued the Biden administration’s ultimatum to states: Develop a plan to save 2 million to 4 million acre-feet of water next year or the federal government will step in. She set a mid-August deadline, which is when a key set of projections will be made public determining how much water will be released out of reservoirs in 2023.

Colorado River cuts expected for Arizona, Nevada and Mexico The federal government on Tuesday is expected to announce water cuts to states that rely on the Colorado River as drought and climate change leave less water flowing through the river and deplete the reservoirs that store it. The Colorado River provides water to 40 million people across seven states in the American West as well as Mexico and helps feed an agricultural industry valued at $15 billion a year. Cities and farms across the region are anxiously awaiting official hydrology projections — estimates of future water levels in the river — that will determine the extent and scope of cuts to their water supply. Water officials in Arizona, California, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, Utah and Wyoming are expecting federal officials to project Lake Mead — located on the Nevada-Arizona border and the largest manmade reservoir in the U.S. — to shrink to dangerously low levels that could disrupt water delivery and hydropower production and cut the amount of water allocated to Arizona and Nevada, as well as Mexico. And that’s not all: Officials from the states are also scrambling to meet a deadline imposed by the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation to slash their water use by at least 15% in order to keep water levels at the river’s storage reservoirs from dropping even more. Together, the projections and the deadline for cuts are presenting Western states with unprecedented challenges and confronting them with difficult decisions about how to plan for a drier future. While the Bureau of Reclamation is “very focused on just getting through this to next year,” any cutbacks will likely need to be in place far longer, said University of Oxford hydrologist Kevin Wheeler. “What contribution the science makes is, it’s pretty clear that that these reductions just have to have to stay in place until the drought has ended or we realize they actually have to get worse and the cuts have to get deeper,” he said. The cuts expected to be announced Tuesday are based on a plan the seven states as well as Mexico signed in 2019 to help maintain reservoir levels. Under that plan, the amount of water allocated to states depends on the water levels at Lake Mead. Last year, the lake fell low enough for the federal government to declare a first-ever water shortage in the region, triggering mandatory cuts for Arizona and Nevada as well as Mexico in 2022. Officials expect hydrologists will project the lake to fall further, triggering additional cuts to Nevada, Arizona and Mexico next year. States with higher priority water rights are not expected to see cuts. Already, extraordinary steps have been taken this year to keep water in Lake Powell, the other large Colorado River reservoir, which sits upstream of Lake Mead and straddles the Arizona-Utah border. Water from the lake runs through Glen Canyon Dam, which produces enough electricity to power between 1 million and 1.5 million homes each year. After water levels at Lake Powell reached levels low enough to threaten hydropower production, federal officials said they would hold back an additional 480,000 acre-feet (more than 156 billion gallons or 592 million cubic meters) of water to ensure the dam could still produce energy. That water would normally course to Lake Mead. Under Tuesday’s reductions, Arizona is expected to lose slightly more water than it did this year, when 18% of its supply was cut. In 2023, it will lose an additional 3%, an aggregate 21% reduction from its initial allocation. Farmers in central Arizona will largely shoulder the cuts, as they did this year. Mexico is expected to lose 7% of the 1.5 million acre-feet it receives each year from the river. Last year, it lost about 5%. The water is a lifeline for northern desert cities including Tijuana and a large farm industry in the Mexicali Valley, just south of the border from California’s Imperial Valley. Nevada is also set to lose water — about 8% of its supply — but most residents will not feel the effects because the state recycles the majority of its water used indoors and doesn’t use its full allocation. Last year, the state lost 7%.

Interior imposes limited water cuts, but lets Colorado River negotiations go into overtime - The West could face a massive water and power crisis as soon as next year as drought and overuse send water levels plummeting along the Colorado River, but the Biden administration isn’t stepping in to stop it — at least for now. Instead of following through on its threat to intervene if states couldn’t agree on a way of saving massive quantities of water, the Interior Department is giving states more time and moving only to institute much smaller water delivery cuts to Arizona, Nevada and Mexico that were already agreed to under a 2019 deal. “We have made progress, but also have work ahead in partnerships with all parties to achieve consensus solutions to conserve water and support communities stricken by the drought,” Deputy Interior Secretary Tommy Beaudreau said on a call with reporters, arguing “there is still time.”Officials did not commit to a new hard deadline for action, but said there will be work on additional agreements “throughout the rest of the year, at least.”With water levels at Lake Powell, one of two main reservoirs on the river, falling quickly toward the point where hydropower production and water deliveries could be jeopardized, Bureau of Reclamation Commissioner Camille Touton issued a June ultimatum to the seven states that rely on the river’s flows. She told them to agree on a plan to save 2 million to 4 million acre feet of water — as much as a third of the river’s flows — or the federal government will intervene. But the states have been locked in dispute over how to share the pain among themselves and how much to compensate farmers and others who forego water use, and failed to reach a deal by today’s deadline. Tanya Trujillo, assistant secretary of Interior for water and science, acknowledged that, “without prompt, responsive actions and investments now, the Colorado River and the citizens that rely on it will face a future of uncertainty and conflict.” She said the Bureau of Reclamation will develop a “detailed workplan” outlining steps that can be taken to protect the system. Those include potentially tapping its authority to define what constitutes a beneficial use of water in the thirsty Lower Basin states of Arizona, California and Nevada, and incorporating evaporation into the amount of water parties are entitled to. But each of those moves would require an administrative process to make, and comes with its own set of legal and political landmines. Instead, the tangible actions Interior is beginning now relate to preparing to operate the reservoirs at critically low levels. That includes investigating whether Glen Canyon Dam at Lake Powell needs to be reengineered to allow larger quantities of water to be released when water levels fall below the hydropower turbines. Hydrologic projections released by Interior Tuesday show water levels at Lake Mead dropping further and, under the terms of a 2019 drought plan signed by the states, put the Lower Basin in a “Tier 2” shortage. That locks in additional water delivery cuts for Arizona, Nevada and Mexico beyond the first-ever delivery cuts that were instituted last year. But those cuts were already included in Interior’s planning and amount to just a fraction of what water managers say is needed now. While major players on the river expressed appreciation for the extra time to reach an agreement, they also underscored the unresolved issues that have stymied a deal so far.Arizona’s top water official and the head of its major delivery system argued that their state, which is the first in line for cuts, has done more than its fair share so far.“It is unacceptable for Arizona to continue to carry a disproportionate burden for reductions for the benefit of others who have not contributed,” Arizona Department of Water Resources Director Tom Buschatzke and Central Arizona Project General Manager Ted Cooke said in a statement.California’s Imperial Irrigation District, the single largest user of Colorado River water whose participation in conservation is seen as essential to any solution, said it “looks forward to learning more details” about funding for voluntary water conservation projects.  Meanwhile, the Metropolitan Water District of Southern California, which, like many urban users, holds lower-priority rights to water, argued that users need to prepare to cut their consumption over the long-term, not just for one year, as some farmers are seeking.

Multiple fatalities, cars swept away as severe flooding hits Sonora, Mexico - At least 3 people have been killed and 11 rescued after heavy rains caused severe floods in different parts of Sonora, Mexico on August 13, 2022. The city of Nogales was particularly badly hit, for the second time in 4 days. While local media is reporting as many as 10 fatalities, national authorities said 3 people have died in different parts of Nogales. Damage was reported to a number of roads and bridges across the state. More dangerous flooding from Nogales, Sonora yesterday. We’re seeing way too much of this lately. Video courtesy: Francisca Miranda. pic.twitter.com/NuMFG6anzN

Mass crop failures expected in England as farmers demand hosepipe bans - Experts have warned of widespread crop failures across England, as charities and farmers criticised water companies for dithering over hosepipe bans despite drought being declared across much of the country.On Friday, the Environment Agency classified eight of the 14 areas of England as being in a drought. Despite this, water companies, including Anglian Water, Southern Water and South West Water have not brought in hosepipe bans. Thames Water said it does not plan to expedite a hosepipe ban expected next week.Leaked documents seen by the Guardian from a meeting of the NationalDrought Group show concerning figures about the state of farming in England. Half of the potato crop is expected to fail as it cannot be irrigated, and even crops that are usually drought-tolerant, such as maize, have been failing. The group was told “irrigation options are diminishing with reservoirs being emptied fast”, and losses of 10-50% are expected for crops including carrots, onions, sugar beet, apples and hops. Milk production is also down nationally because of a lack of food for cows, and wildfires are putting large areas of farmland at risk.Farmers are deciding whether to drill crops for next year, and there are concerns that many will decide not to, with dire consequences for the 2023 harvest. Cattle and other livestock are expected to be slaughtered early at lower weights because it is likely farmers will run out of feed for them in winter. One of the driest areas is East Anglia, which is also home to much of England’s farming, including more than two-thirds of its sugar beet crop and a third of its potato crop.However, Anglian Water has ruled out a hosepipe ban for this summer, arguing that it has good levels of water in reservoirs.A spokesperson said: “Today’s declaration of drought across the region we supply serves to underline the seriousness of the situation. But because of the investments we’ve made and the support of our customers, we still do not envisage needing a hosepipe ban in our region this summer.” But farmers disagree. Tom Bradshaw, the deputy president of the National Farmers’ Union (NFU), said: “We have members who can’t abstract irrigation water but still in East Anglia there is no hosepipe ban. We can’t believe that we aren’t allowed to irrigate to grow the fruit and vegetables the country needs but there is no ban on excessive consumer use.” He suggested the government should be intervening to make sure that water companies did their part to mitigate the drought. “Defra ministers need to prioritise food production. Feeding people is critically important.“

The drought across Europe is drying up rivers, killing fish and shriveling crops - Once, a river ran through it. Now, white dust and thousands of dead fish cover the wide trench that winds amid rows of trees in France's Burgundy region in what was the Tille River in the village of Lux. From dry and cracked reservoirs in Spain to falling water levels on major arteries like the Danube, the Rhine and the Po, an unprecedented drought is afflicting nearly half of the European continent. It is damaging farm economies, forcing water restrictions, causing wildfires and threatening aquatic species. There has been no significant rainfall for almost two months in Western, Central and Southern Europe. And the dry period is expected to continue in what experts say could be the worst drought in 500 years. Climate change is exacerbating conditions as hotter temperatures speed up evaporation, thirsty plants take in more moisture and reduced snowfall in the winter limits supplies of fresh water available for irrigation in the summer. Europe isn't alone in the crisis, with drought conditions also reported in East Africa, the western United States and northern Mexico. As he walked in the 15-meter-wide (50-foot-wide)riverbed in Lux, Jean-Philippe Couasné, chief technician at the local Federation for Fishing and Protection of the Aquatic Environment, listed the species of fish that had died in the Tille. "It's heartbreaking," he said. "On average, about 8,000 liters (about 2,100 gallons) per second are flowing. ... And now, zero liters." Without rain, the river "will continue to empty. And yes, all fish will die. ... They are trapped upstream and downstream, there's no water coming in, so the oxygen level will keep decreasing as the (water) volume will go down," Couasné said. "These are species that will gradually disappear." "Yes, it's dramatic because what can we do? Nothing," he said. "We're waiting, hoping for storms with rain, but storms are very local so we can't count on it." The current situation is the result of long periods of dry weather caused by changes in world weather systems, said meteorologist Peter Hoffmann of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research near Berlin. "It's just that in summer we feel it the most," he said. "But actually the drought builds up across the year." Climate change has lessened the temperature differences between regions, sapping the forces that drive the jet stream, which normally brings wet Atlantic weather to Europe, he said. A weaker or unstable jet stream can result in unusually hot air coming to Europe from North Africa, leading to prolonged periods of heat. The reverse is also true, when a polar vortex of cold air from the Arctic can cause freezing conditions far south of where it would normally reach.

Worst-ever drought devastates Europe amid capitalism’s climate crisis - From Britain to the Balkans, a record-breaking drought is devastating Europe. Over 60 percent of the European Union and Great Britain face drought conditions, according to the European Drought Observatory, in what one EU Commission scientist called Europe’s worst drought in 500 years. Major rivers and lakes are drying up, farmers are facing unprecedented crop failures, and energy supplies are collapsing amid unprecedented heat and lack of rainfall. The summer of 2022, which broke records for heat, wildfires and now drought in Europe, has made clear the urgent necessity of dealing with global climate change. It has now reached such a vast extent that, without prompt and large-scale action, it will threaten basic functions of society critical to human life—such as the ability to provide water, food, electricity, and safe housing. This summer’s extreme drought was caused by record-low precipitation in Europe this year and successive heatwaves, including the July heatwave that shattered temperature records. Extreme heat and drought also led to record wildfires, with 615,341 hectares burned this year across Europe—the highest-ever figure for mid-August. The drought is disrupting key food and energy supplies, already undermined by the NATO-Russia war in Ukraine, driving prices for essential goods even higher amid the ongoing inflation crisis. On the Rhine River, barges are carrying goods at 25 percent capacity due to low water levels. Water levels are now at 40 centimeters but are forecast to fall to around 30cm, which may completely halt transport on the river. Such stoppages in 2018 cost the German economy an estimated €5 billion. Last week, France forced its nuclear power plants, which produce 70 percent of its electricity, to operate at reduced capacity: releasing high-temperature coolant water into rivers that are at record low levels is an ecological hazard. Amid the ongoing energy crisis, however, the French energy agency now has ordered the plants to return to full capacity, whatever the resulting damage to the environment, including plant and animal life. Of France’s 96 mainland departments, 86 are on drought alert. The Loire River, France’s second-largest, can be crossed on foot along much of its length. The water level on the Danube River, Europe’s longest, is currently 43 centimeters, the lowest since records began. In Serbia, Bulgaria and Romania, dredging efforts are underway to keep the river navigable for barges, which are crucial for Balkan food and energy supplies. In southern Germany, the river’s water temperature exceeded 25°C and is expected to reach 27°C by the end of the month, the same temperature as the Caribbean Sea. Across Europe, fish are threatened by record high water temperatures and low oxygen content. The entire fish stock of the Conopljankso reservoir in Serbia died after it completely dried up. The surface of the Oder River, running between Poland and Germany, is now all but covered in dead fish. While Polish officials have contested reports of heavy industrial contamination of the river, it is clear that as the river’s water volume has plummeted to record lows, concentrations of industrial pollutants have skyrocketed. European farmers are facing massive crop failures, with production of key grains down 30 to 40 percent in Italy and nearly 20 percent in France. Spain’s olive oil crop, which counts for nearly half of world exports, is expected to be one-quarter of the average produced over the last five years. In northern Italy’s Po Valley, 60 percent of this year’s crop has been lost as farmers have been unable to use local rivers for crop irrigation. This has already caused at least €6.2 billion in damage. The region, which produces 30 to 40 percent of Italy’s food supply, has seen virtually no rain this year. Near the Po estuary, water levels are so low that salt water from the Adriatic Sea flowed 30 kilometers upstream, killing crops near the river’s banks that had so far survived the drought. Drinking water supplies are critically low in every city along the Po Valley, including Milan and Turin. Water levels in lakes in the region are also at historical lows, including the popular tourist destination of Lake Garda in northern Italy, which has almost completely dried up. Low water levels in Norway’s reservoirs are reducing its ability to produce hydroelectric power. This has led to warnings that it may have to cut energy exports, further exacerbating the energy crisis caused by NATO threats to refuse to pay for Russian gas and Russian threats to cut off supplies. Eight UK regions face drought conditions, including the capital, London.

BBC overlooks lack of wind: ‘Drought highlights dangers for electricity supplies’ -The ongoing drought in the UK and Europe is putting electricity generation under pressure, say experts.Electricity from hydropower – which uses water to generate power – has dropped by 20% overall, says BBC News.And nuclear facilities, which are cooled using river water, have been restricted.There are fears that the shortfalls are a taste of what will happen in the coming winter.In the UK, high temperatures are hitting energy output from fossil, nuclear and solar sources.That is because the technology in power plants and solar panels work much less well in high temperatures.The prolonged dry spell is putting further pressure on energy supplies as Europe scrambles for alternative sources after the Russian invasion of Ukraine.Hydropower is an important source of energy for Europe, but the lack of water in rivers and reservoirs is now significantly reducing the ability of facilities to produce electricity.Italy gets around 1/5 of its power from hydro, but that’s fallen by around 40% in the past 12 months.Countries, including the UK and France, rely on each other’s electricity markets. “If both French and UK systems are in stress at the same time, then nobody really knows what will happen”.

Environmental disaster triggers mass fish die-off in the Oder River bordering Germany and Poland - Since the end of July, tons of dead fish have been floating in the Oder River, which runs between Germany and Poland. This is an environmental disaster of enormous proportions, the cause of which has not yet been clarified and the full extent of which cannot yet be foreseen.The first reports began to arrive on July 26. Senator Wadim Tyszkiewicz, formerly the mayor of Nowa Sól, which lies on the Polish banks of the Oder, wrote on his Facebook page: “A catastrophe. The fish that didn’t die are swimming in agony. ... Pike are swimming amok, snatching oxygen from the surface of the water. The water in the river is murky and the foam smells of chlorine and septic tank. There are thousands of dead fish.”At 866 kilometres, the Oder is the eighth longest river in Central Europe. It begins in the Czech Republic, flows through Sląskie (Silesia) and becomes the border river between Poland and Germany at Schiedlo, just before Eisenhüttenstadt, before flowing into the Baltic Sea at Stettin.On Wednesday, the first dead fish also appeared on the German banks in the Oder-Spree district. The city of Frankfurt an der Oder issued a warning that a massive fish die-off had been observed for “unexplained reasons.” On Thursday, the toxic flood passed Schwedt. By now, it is expected to enter the Lower Odertal German-Polish nature reserve and from there flow further towards the Baltic Sea via the Stettiner Haff.In Poland, the anglers’ association has organised volunteers to remove the fish carcasses. According to their own statements, they had recovered more than 10 tonnes of dead fish from the Oder within a few days. This Facebookpage from one of the volunteers shows the tragic scale of the disaster.Several tonnes of fish carcasses were also recovered in the German section of the Oder. After reports of mercury contamination of the Oder were received, some volunteers stopped the disposal operation for their own protection. Others, however, continued wearing personal protective gear, as mass decomposition in the river is an ecological hazard in itself, especially if the carcasses contain toxic chemicals.What remains unknown so far is the impact on the entire river biotope—on plant life, on the micro-organisms in the river and its countless tributaries, as well as on birds and other animals that feed on fish. There are reports from Poland of dead seabirds and beavers.“It seems that everything that breathes air from the water has died,” Johannes Giebermann of the Frankfurt/Oder Landscape Management Office told Der Spiegel. “Not only fish on a large scale, but also mussels and snails, for example. We can’t even estimate the dimension of it right now.”“At the moment, tons of dead fish are floating in the Oder—and that at an extremely low water level and in great heat,” Spiegel reports. “One thing is clear: the carcasses have to be removed from the water. Meanwhile, it is still unclear what the exact reason for the mass deaths is.”

Paris hit by 80% of average August rainfall in 90 minutes, France - Violent thunderstorms brought heavy rain and strong winds to parts of France on August 16, 2022, bringing temporary relief to the drought-stricken country. A violent storm accompanied by hail and intense lighting circulated last night from the Minervois towards the eastern Hérault department, bringing hourly rainfall in excess of 50 mm (1.96 inches), with 63 mm (2.48 inches) at Montarnaud and 87 mm (3.42 inches) at Puéchabon. The storms also brought powerful wind gusts to the region, with 104 km/h (64 mph) registered in Aigues Mortes, 108 km/h (67 mph) in Saint-Mandrier, and 116 km/h (72 mph) in Hyères. A series of thunderstorms hit Paris between 16:45 and 19:15 LT, with up to 47 mm (1.8 inches) of rain measured in the Montsouris park rain gauge, including 16 mm (0.6 inches) in just 12 minutes. To put this in perspective, in an hour and a half, the area received the equivalent of 80% of the 1991 – 2020 average monthly accumulation for the entire month of August (58 mm / 2.28 inches).1 Winds in excess of 100 km/h (62 mph) were recorded at the top of the Eiffel Tower. Another considerable amount was registered in Cassis, east of Marseille where the weather station recorded 30 mm (1.18 inches) of rain in just 30 minutes.

Severe thunderstorms hit Austria, claiming 5 lives - Severe thunderstorms with winds gusting up to 100 km/h (62 mph) hit parts of Austria on August 18, 2022, claiming the lives of five people, including two children.Two girls, aged four and eight, were killed and 13 injured, two of them seriously, when strong winds toppled trees at a lake in Carinthia state. In Lower Austria, three women were killed when lightning struck a tree near the town of Gaming, causing it to fall.¹The storms caused a major power outage that forced the national railway company OeBB to suspend train services.About 65 000 households across the country were left without electricity.Before reaching Austria, this storm system left 5 people dead in Corsica, France, and 2 in Tuscany, Italy.^{2, 3}On Friday, August 19, German weather officials warned extremely abundant, prolonged rain along the edge of the Alps could drop as much as 140 mm (5.5 inches) over a 48-hour period that could cause flooding.⁴Air rescue services have been placed on heightened alert.

Severe thunderstorms drops large hail on Liguria, leaves 2 people dead in Tuscany, Italy - Severe thunderstorms with intense lightning and large hail hit the eastern Liguria coastline between 04:30 and 05:15 UTC on August 18, 2022, causing extensive damage. The storms continued into Tuscany, leaving at least 2 people dead and 4 injured.The storms caused flooding and severe damage to property. The Genoa-La Spezia railway line has experienced gusts of wind reaching up to 120 km/h (75 mph) and has been suspended due to the continued rushing water that carried materials and even some cabins from the beaches onto the railway line, and caused damage to the power lines.¹ According to CIMA Research Foundation, hailstones in Chiavari and Sestri Levande were as large as 5 cm (2 inches).

Violent storm hits Stromboli, covering streets and homes in tons of mud - Streets and homes on the island of Stromboli were covered in thousands of tons of mud as heavy rain caused mudslides to spread across the iconic volcanic island on August 12, 2022.The disaster was exacerbated due to a lack of vegetation caused by a fire that started during the filming of a TV serial named “Civil Protection” in May 2022.The damage was estimated to be the worst at Scilla on the Messina Strait.¹Local media said roads turned to rivers, sweeping away cars, mopeds, boats, tables, and gazebos.“The island was turned into post-war scenario,” Carmelo Amato of Live Sicilia noted.There were waits of up to three hours for ferries to the southern Italian island of Sicilia.

Rare, powerful thunderstorms bring severe winds to Europe, killing multiple - A massive storm complex has traveled a nearly 1,000-mile path across Europe, reportedly killing numerous people and causing devastation on the French island of Corsica and to landmarks in Venice, before moving on to inflict major wind damage in parts of Austria and Slovakia.According to the Associated Press, at least five people in France and two in Italy were killed by the wicked storm complex. Some experts believethe storm complex may qualify as a derecho, a particularly damaging, widespread and long-lived wind storm. Two children reportedly were killed by the same long-tracked storm complex in Austria.The storm complex was moving exceptionally fast, enhancing its wind risk. The intense line of storms hit the Corsican capital of Ajaccio on the southwest coast at 8:15 a.m. local time on Thursday, then reached Cap Corse on the northeast tip around 9:15 a.m., according to Meteociel. That is a forward speed of roughly 70 mph.Parts of France and southern England were hit by torrential rain Aug. 16, flooding subway stations and roads. (Video: The Washington Post)Preliminary reports of wind gusts in Corsica include: 140 mph (225 km/h) in Marignana, 128 mph (206 km/h) in L'Île-Rousse, 122 mph (197 km/h) at Calvi, and 116 mph (188 km/h) in Bocognano, among others. Dramatic video from Corsica’s Ajaccio Napoleon Bonaparte Airport shows the extreme destruction that 136-mph wind gusts, equivalent to the force of a Category 4 hurricane, can cause. The winds damaged an Airbus A319, a commercial jet that can hold up to 156 passengers, with one of its wingtips bent over by the storm, according to reporting from Airlive.At least five people were killed in and around the French island during the storm, according to the AP: a 13-year-old girl and a 46-year-old man were killed at two campsites; a 72-year-old woman died when a roof collapsed onto her vehicle; and two people died at sea — a kayaker and a 62-year-old fisherman, whose bodies washed ashore after the storm.Several others were injured, and at least a dozen people were hospitalized in Corsica, according to the report. The high winds also left 45,o00 people without power.Further on the system’s path, two people were reported killed in the Italian province of Tuscany when trees were ripped out of the ground, while several others were injured by falling trees at a campground. In Venice, the rowdy winds tossed tables and chairs like toys in the popular St. Mark’s Square, and pieces of brick were ripped straight off St. Mark’s bell tower, the tallest structure in the city.In Piombino, Italy, a dramatic video of the storm shows a Ferris wheel spinning rapidly in the storm, with the wheel’s carriages jostling out of control as the howling winds took over the wheel’s operations. According to the AP, hailstones the size of walnuts caused substantial damage in the Liguria region of Italy, busting windows and damaging farmlands that had already been scorched by drought.The storm continued to bring intense lightning and strong winds even after ripping through parts of Northern Italy. A video from Kranj, Slovenia, shows intense winds ripping off the roof of what appears to be a large apartment complex, damaging cars parked below.In Austria, another astonishing video shows high-voltage power masts bent in half. According to reporting from Austrian broadcaster ORF, at least 65,000 people in Styria, a province in the heart of Austria, lost power during the storm, which brought wind gusts of at least 139 km/h (86 mph).Elsewhere in Austria, at least two children were killed in the Carinthia region after strong winds toppled trees near a busy lake.

London to face water restrictions from next week, Thames Water says — Britain's Thames Water said Wednesday that a Temporary Use Ban covering London and the Thames Valley would begin next week, citing "unprecedented weather conditions." The ban is set to come into effect from Aug. 24. "Domestic customers should not use hosepipes for cleaning cars, watering gardens or allotments, filling paddling pools and swimming pools and cleaning windows," the utility said. Explaining its decision, the company — one of several in England and Wales to have announced water usage limits in recent weeks — said extreme temperatures and this summer's heatwave had resulted in the highest demand for water in more than 25 years. "The driest July since 1885, the hottest temperatures on record, and the River Thames reaching its lowest level since 2005 have led to a drop in reservoir levels in the Thames Valley and London," it said. The TUB does not apply to businesses, although Thames Water said it was asking those within its area "to be mindful of the drought and to use water wisely." This could involve companies switching off water features on their premises and not washing their vehicles, it suggested. "Implementing a Temporary Use Ban for our customers has been a very difficult decision to make and one which we have not taken lightly," Sarah Bentley, the Thames Water CEO, said. "After months of below average rainfall and the recent extreme temperatures in July and August, water resources in our region are depleted," Bentley added. The announcement of the ban comes at a time when many water companies are facing criticism related to leaks from their pipes. For its part, Thames Water said it had teams focused on locating and fixing more than 1,100 leaks per week. When it comes to enforcement of the ban, the firm said it hoped and expected customers to continue using water wisely. "If we become aware of customers ignoring the restrictions, we'll contact them to make sure they're aware of the rules and how to use water responsibly and wisely," it added. "There are criminal offences for those that repeatedly ignore requests to comply with the ban."

Extreme drought in Somalia displaces more than 1 million people - Extreme, multi-season drought in Somalia has displaced more than 1 million people, as of August 11, 2022. The Horn of Africa has experienced its fourth consecutive failed rainy season, with the last one (March – May) considered the worst on record. Extreme drought conditions are killing livestock and crops, displacing populations, increasing the risk of disease and malnutrition, and pushing children and families to the brink of death and destitution. As climate models predict a continuation of La Niña conditions, the Horn of Africa is now facing its fifth failed rainy season. June and July saw another large spike in displacement in Somalia, as people who were hoping for rains to arrive lost hope after an unprecedented fourth back-to-back season failed.1 Bay region, where most new arrivals were recorded in July (40%), is of particular concern. Of these new arrivals, 99% originated from other areas within the Bay region where the global acute malnutrition rate has been found to be above 30%. Across the Horn of Africa (Djibouti, Ethiopia, Eritrea, Kenya and Somalia), more than 20 million people, including at least 10 million children, are currently experiencing severe drought conditions.2 More than 8.5 million people, including 4.2 million children, are facing dire water shortages across the region. The nutrition situation in the region is becoming catastrophic as malnutrition rates are increasing, particularly in Ethiopia, and in the arid and semi-arid lands (ASALs) of Kenya and Somalia with more than 1.8 million children expected to be wasted in 2022. Overall, 15 million children are now out of school in the region and an additionally estimated 3.3 million children are at risk of dropping out due to drought. With climate models predicting a continuation of La Niña conditions, the Horn of Africa will most likely face its historic fifth failed rainy season from October to November.

Hot nights confuse circadian clocks in rice, hurting crop yields” — - Rising nighttime temperatures are curbing crop yields for rice, and new research moves us closer to understanding why. The study found that warmer nights alter the rice plant's biological schedule, with hundreds of genes being expressed earlier than usual, while hundreds of other genes are being expressed later than usual. "Essentially, we found that warmer nights throw the rice plant's internal clock out of whack," says Colleen Doherty, an associate professor of biochemistry at North Carolina State University and corresponding author of a paper on the work. "Most people think plants aren't dynamic, but they are. Plants are constantly regulating their biological processes -- gearing up for photosynthesis just before dawn, winding that down in the late afternoon, determining precisely how and where to burn their energy resources. Plants are busy, it's just difficult to observe all that activity from the outside." And what researchers have learned is that the clock responsible for regulating all of that activity gets messed up when the nights get hotter relative to the days. "We already knew that climate change is leading to increased temperatures globally, and that nighttime temperatures are rising faster than daytime temperatures," Doherty says. "We also knew that warmer nights hurt rice production. But until now, we had very little insight into why warmer nights are bad for rice. "We still don't know all the details, but we're narrowing down where to look." Research that addresses rice yield losses is important because rice is an essential crop for feeding hundreds of millions of people each year -- and because a changing climate poses challenges for global food security.

Thousands of homes destroyed, 50 people killed after torrential rains hit Nigeria – (videos) Thousands of homes have been destroyed and at least 50 people killed in Nigeria’s Jigawa state due to floods caused by nearly continuous heavy rains since late July. Due to a lack of drainage infrastructure and overflowing water bodies in certain locations, images circulating on social media showed wide stretches of land entirely drowned. In a statement released on Saturday, Nigeria’s minister of humanitarian affairs and disaster management, Sadiya Umar Farouq, said that devastating floods in Jigawa had become a “perennial” issue. “This incident is particularly sad because it has become perennial. This is causing serious damage to schools, houses, and the livelihood of the people,” Umar said.1 According to the Nigerian Meteorological Agency, more heavy rains are expected in several northern states, including Jigawa, Katsina, Kano, Borno, Yobe, Kaduna, and Bauchi.

Flash floods in Afghanistan leave over 30 people dead and 100 missing - Severe flash floods hit northern Afghanistan’s Parwan Province on August 13, 2022, leaving more than 30 people dead and around 100 missing. According to the state-run Bakhtar News Agency (BNA), the affected districts include Ghorband and Shinwari. Many roads leading to the affected region are still blocked, hampering rescue and relief efforts. However, a helicopter sent by the government on August 14 delivered tents, tarpaulins, blankets and cooking utensils.1 According to the survey conducted by the Afghan Red Crescent in Shinwari district, 9 people have been killed and 133 homes were destroyed in the villages of Tehi Qamar, Tahi Kala, Kaqshal, Malik Khel, Khak Sango, Shiwa, Sir Dara, Ashtar Shahr, and Dahan Estima.2 About 404 ha (1 000 acres) of agricultural land was destroyed as well as 30 water dams and 140 km (87 miles) of roads. Heavy rains continued affecting eastern and northern parts of the country, causing more destructive flooding. According to data provided by the UN, a series of severe flash floods in July left more than 75 people dead across the country.

18 fatalities, 36 missing after flash flood hits Qinghai, China (videos) The death toll from destructive flash flooding in northwest China’s Qinghai Province has reached 18 and there are 36 people still missing, local officials said late August 18 (LT). This is up from 4 fatalities and 27 missing reported earlier today.As reported by the emergency department, a sudden rainstorm triggered a landslide that diverted a river in Datong Hui and Tu Autonomous County at 07:03 LT on August 18 (23:03 UTC on August 17), affecting 1 517 households in 6 villages or about 6 200 people.More than 2 000 people are involved in emergency rescue and relief work. Emergency authorities described the event as a ‘mountain torrent.’

Have Deadly Monsoon Floods Replenished Groundwater to End Long Drought in Pakistan? - by Riaz Haq - Pakistan has seen unprecedented rains followed by massive floods in the current monsoon season. Hundreds of people have lost their lives and tens of thousands have been rendered homeless. At the same time, new green shoots growing in Thar desert indicate that the long-running drought in southern Pakistan has ended. The large Indus Basin aquifer has been significantly recharged. Groundwater has been replenished to a large extent for many years of come, raising hopes for more water for growing crops and raising livestock. The heavy monsoon rains will help to kick-start the sowing of major Kharif (autumn) crops including rice, cotton, sugarcane and corn after about a month's delay. “There was 40% less water available for the Kharif season (during May-June 2022),” an official of the Ministry of National Food Security and Research said while talking to The Express Tribune on Saturday. Earlier in March this year, Pakistan's Federal Committee on Agriculture (FCA) had said “for the Kharif year 2022, the water availability in canals head will be 65.84 million acre feet (MAF) against last year’s 65.08 MAF”. Recent rains have helped fill up major water reservoirs across the country. About 150,000 cubic feet per second of water is being released from Pakistan's largest Tarbela dam which is more than the combined irrigation needs of the two provinces. It is also generating over 3,000 MW of electricity, according to media reports. Pakistan Meteorological Department data shows that Pakistan has seen far more rainfall than normal. About 178 mm of rain has fallen in the country, an increase of 180.5% of normal for the month of July. Recent satellite maps from the United States National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) confirm significant groundwater growth in Pakistan. The improvement becomes much more apparent when the latest map is compared with one from 2014. Pakistan’s Indus Basin Irrigation System is the world's largest artificial groundwater recharge system, according to the World Bank. A network of canals dug since the 16th century have recharged the Indus Basin aquifer in Pakistan which now has about 1.2 million tube wells extracting 50 million acre feet of water every year. NASA satellite maps show that Pakistan is among the places worst affected by rapid depletion of groundwater. Improved groundwater management is crucial for a healthy, prosperous, and green Pakistan. It appears that the groundwater in the Indus Basin has been replenished to a large extent for many years of come, raising hopes for more water for farmers to grow crops and raise livestock.

ENSO Outlook raised from ‘La Niña WATCH’ to ‘La Niña ALERT’ - The Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) has raised the ENSO Outlook status from ‘La Niña WATCH’ to ‘La Niña ALERT’ with the likelihood of La Niña returning this spring increasing to around 3 times the normal risk. This status change follows a renewal of cooling in the tropical Pacific Ocean towards La Niña thresholds over recent weeks, as well as the persistence of the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) at La Niña levels and strengthened trade winds at La Niña levels. Climate models indicate further cooling is likely, with four of seven models suggesting La Niña could return by early-to-mid southern hemisphere spring. Climate models and indicators have shifted towards meeting La Niña ALERT criteria which means the chance of a La Niña developing in the coming season has increased, BOM said in a report issued on August 16, 2022.1 When La Niña criteria have been met in the past, a La Niña event has developed around 70% of the time. La Niña refers to changes in sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean, with waters in the eastern Pacific being cooler than normal, and waters in the western tropical Pacific being warmer than normal. During this period, trade winds strengthen, increasing the water moisture in the air, which usually brings rainfall to eastern and central Australia and a wetter start to the northern wet season. The Bureau’s 3-month climate outlook shows a high chance of above-average rainfall for most of the eastern two-thirds of the Australian mainland between September and November 2022. The outlook reflects a range of climate drivers, including a negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) event and warmer than average waters around Australia. With wet soils, high rivers and full dams, and the outlook for above-average rainfall, elevated flood risk remains for eastern Australia. Some third-party sources and media outlets have suggested that the east coast of Australia is experiencing a third La Niña. This reporting does not reflect the complexity of Australia’s climate and is not entirely accurate. The Bureau of Meteorology’s El Niño–Southern Oscillation Outlook, which is monitored by the Bureau’s specialist climatologists and is underpinned by an analysis of seven climate models, is at La Niña ALERT status. This means there is a 70% chance of La Niña returning this spring. The Bureau is advising of very high chances of wet conditions over eastern Australia for the next three months. Should a La Niña event be established in the Pacific Ocean, the wet conditions will persist into summer. This rainfall outlook is of great importance to communities in eastern Australia given the increased risk of flood following above-average rainfall for the past few months and above-average soil moisture levels. BOM is urging communities living in the affected regions to keep up to date with official forecasts and warnings on the Bureau’s website and BOM Weather app and follow the advice of emergency services.

 ‘Enormous’ fertilizer shortage spells disaster for global food crisis – A global fertilizer crunch is threatening to further starve a planet that's already going hungry.Officials at the United Nations and beyond are stepping up warnings about the mounting crisis for fertilizers — an essential substance to boost soil fertility — as vulnerable countries in areas such as Africa grapple with prices that have soared by 300 percent since Russia's war in Ukraine began.The continent, where smallholder farmers feed the majority of people, is already lacking 2 million metric tons of fertilizer, according to the African Development Bank. The high price of fertilizers will mean less food at a time when people need it most, with more frequent bouts of extreme weather and the Ukraine war still leaving import-dependent countries insecure. Farmers in Europe are feeling similar strains, though to a lesser degree.“We are really starting to yell from every tower that there’s a fertilizer crisis ... and the fertilizer crisis is enormous,” said one U.N. official who spoke on the condition of anonymity.The African Development Bank said in May that “many African countries have already seen price hikes in bread and other food items," warning that "if this deficit is not made up, food production in Africa will decline by at least 20% and the continent could lose over $11 billion in food production value."But David Beasley, executive director of the U.N. World Food Programme, said he thought that 20 percent estimate "could be very low.""[There's] 980 million people inside Africa that depend on the smallholder farms and the fertilizer to reach them, and we're working on these issues as we speak," Beasley told the U.S. Congress last month.Artificial fertilizers are made by using one of three primary ingredients: nitrogen, phosphorus or potassium. The final product is then spread over fields to provide crops with nutrients that are either missing or in short supply in the soil.Making fertilizers is an energy-intensive process, especially for nitrogen-based fertilizers, which use natural gas as an essential ingredient. That means the price of fertilizers tends to correspond with energy costs."The increased price is [a] burden for all farmers in the world, but the burden is even higher for those farmers in developing countries that have less financial capacities and organisation to purchase the fertilisers than the European ones," an EU official wrote to POLITICO.Fertilizer prices were high even before Russia invaded Ukraine, which prompted a further 50 percent spike, according to the European Commission.The war in Ukraine has exacerbated the problem because of Russia's outsized role in the world fertilizer market. It's the world’s top exporter of nitrogen fertilizers, the second largest supplier of potassium and the third-largest exporter of phosphorus fertilizers. Since its invasion of Ukraine in February, shipping costs and energy prices have gone up. Europe's fertilizer producers now warn of shortages if the Continent's imports of natural gas from Russia continue to fall.“It’s a big attention point,” a second EU official said. “Apart from very challenging weather conditions we have in Europe, the fertilizer costs will be a very important element in terms of what will be cultivated around the world, in Europe and Ukraine in particular.”

California’s giant sequoias are burning up. Will logging save them? - Every June, Tony Caprio and his wife, Linda, hike into the Sugarbowl — a cluster of giant sequoias high in the Sierra Nevada — to walk among some of the oldest and tallest trees on the planet. Now when he visits, he sees something that, scientists say, has no precedent in thousands of years of history: vast acres of dead sequoias, killed by fire.The Sugarbowl, an amphitheater of solemn and enormous trees, part of the Redwood Mountain grove, one of the largest collections of giant sequoias on Earth, has become a graveyard. Trees that have lived since the Roman Empire stand as fire-blackened matchsticks, their once bushy green crowns shriveled into charred fists. When the KNP Complex Fire roared through last October, it burned so hot in some places that Caprio expects few seedlings to rise from the ash.“These are all dead,” said Caprio, the fire ecologist for Sequoia and Kings Canyon National Parks, wandering among the grove now closed to the public. “So what’s going to be the long-term prognosis for an area like this? Is it going to come back as a shrub field?”Summer wildfires, in the era of climate change, mean something different now for giant sequoias. These trees evolved with fire, and need it to reproduce, but the scale of recent megafires — burning in hotter, drier conditions across far greater areas — have overwhelmed many of the groves tucked high in the California mountains. Six of the seven largest wildfires in California history have occurred in the past two years, and in that period, up to nearly one-fifth of all naturally-occurring large giant sequoias on Earth have been killed.“What is new and shocking is these large areas, one hundred acres or more, where every single sequoia is killed,” said Nate Stephenson, an emeritus scientist in forest ecology at the U.S. Geological Survey. “There is no evidence anything like that has happened in the past one thousand years, probably many thousands of years.“We’re in a whole new ballgame,” he said. And in this new game, the rules are in dispute. The question of how to protect the remaining sequoias, and more broadly how to manage America’s remaining forests in an era of climate-magnified megafires, has divided scientists and the public. The two wildfires that burned in and around Yosemite National Park this summer — including among the famous Mariposa Grove of sequoias — rekindled the debate about what humans can or should do to protect these iconic trees.Late last month, the U.S. Forest Service said it would take emergency action, including setting fires and cutting down trees, to try to protect a dozen sequoia groves over more than 13,000 acres. Legislation proposed in June, called the Save Our Sequoias Act, would fast-track environmental reviews for these types of logging-and-fire efforts in the name of fire prevention. The scale of what some foresters and researchers are calling for in places such as the Sierra Nevada amounts to a wholesale re-engineering of the forest. They say the land management policy that prevailed during much of the 20th century — of putting out most wildfires — has led to overgrown forests. During the past two decades, as climate change has intensified, drought in the West has killed many of those trees, leaving downed logs and dead snags — the “fuels” that firefighters say create hotter and more destructive wildfires.

Death toll rises to 26 in forest fires spread in north Algeria | Al Arabiya English - At least 26 people died and dozens of others were injured in forest fires that ravaged 14 districts of northern Algeria on Wednesday, the interior minister said. Kamel Beldjoud told state television that 24 people lost their lives in fires in El Tarf, near the border with Tunisia, in addition to two others who died earlier in Setif. The civil protection agency in Setif had said that two women, “a 58-year-old mother and her 31-year-old daughter”, were killed in the town. In Souk Ahras, farther to the east near Algeria's border with Tunisia, people were seen fleeing their homes as fires spread before firefighting helicopters were deployed. An earlier toll said four people in Souk Ahras suffered burns and 41 others had breathing difficulties, the authorities said. Media reports said 350 residents had been evacuated. No updated toll was given on the number of people injured in the fires in other areas. The gendarmerie has closed several roads as a result of the fires. “Thirty-nine fires are underway in 14 wilayas (administrative councils),” the civil protection agency said, noting that El Tarf was the worst hit, with 16 fires in progress. Helicopters used bambi buckets to drop water on fires in three wilayas, including Souk Ahras. Since the start of August, 106 fires have broken out in Algeria, destroying more than 2,500 hectares of woodland. Beldjoud said some of the fires were started by people. Wednesday's toll brings the total number of people killed in wildfires this summer up to 30.

Algeria Forest Fires Kill at Least 37 - Algeria's civil protection authority said Thursday that the death toll from forest fires raging in at least 26 provinces had risen to 37. At least 161 people have been reported injured, with dozens more missing. Algerian media showed video of fires burning out of control in forests across the country, claiming thousands of acres of woodland and affecting the country's national parks. Interior Minister Kamel Beldjoud told journalists that fires were raging unchecked in large swaths of the country and that authorities were still trying to collect data from local officials to determine the number of buildings and other structures that were damaged or destroyed. Beldjoud said his ministry had received reports of 106 fires spreading in Skikda, Jigel, Setif, El Taref, Souq Aras and Tipaza. Ibtissam Hamlawy, who heads Algeria's Red Crescent Society, told state TV that her organization was well positioned to deal with such a crisis and was busy sending volunteers to help in areas affected by the fires, in addition to sending aid to those families worst hit by the tragedy. She said the Red Crescent began sending aid to those affected by the fires early Thursday, including 20 tons of medicine, mattresses and blankets, foodstuffs and water to the region of El Taref, in the east of the country. Egyptian political sociologist Said Sadek, now based in Tunisia, told VOA that summer temperatures in parts of North Africa, including Algeria and Tunisia, have been unprecedented and that this had contributed to conditions favorable for wildfires. "The whole area of North Africa from Morocco to Algeria to Tunisia [is] facing big challenges," Sadek said. "The weather is changing, and they are suffering from water shortages and extreme heat, rising heat, that are pushing that." Sadek noted that both Tunisia and Morocco were rationing water because of lengthy droughts, and that dry weather was contributing to making forest areas prone to wildfires.

Dozens die in forest fires ravaging northern Algeria - Algerian firefighters were Thursday battling a string of blazes, fanned by drought and a blistering heatwave, that have killed at least 38 people and left destruction in their wake. Deadly forest fires have become an annual scourge in the North African country, where climate change is turning large areas into a tinderbox. According to multiple sources including local journalists and the fire service, at least 38 people have been killed, mostly in the El Tarf region near Algeria's eastern border with Tunisia which was baking in 48 degrees Celsius (118 Fahrenheit) heat. At least 200 more people have suffered burns or respiratory problems from the smoke, according to various Algerian media. A journalist in El Tarf described "scenes of devastation" on the road to El Kala in the country's far north-east. "A tornado of fire swept everything away in seconds," he told AFP by telephone. "Most of those who died were surrounded while visiting a wildlife park." Emergency services were still battling a blaze around Tonga lake, he said. Local media reported that eight people had been burned to death in a bus near the city of 100,000 residents. State television reported Thursday morning that Prime Minister Ayman Benabderrahmane was visiting the area. Firefighters were also battling a large blaze in the mountainous area of Souk Ahras, a journalist in the area told AFP. He described scenes of panic in the city of half a million, where nearly 100 women and 17 newborn babies had to be evacuated from a hospital near the forest. Algerian TV showed people fleeing their burning homes, women carrying children in their arms. Local media said 350 people had fled their homes. Some 39 blazes were ravaging various parts of northern Algeria, according to the fire service, and there were fears that hot winds could spark new ones that authorities are ill-equipped to fight. The scenes sparked fears of a repeat of fires last year which killed at least 90 people and ravaged 100,000 hectares of forest and farmland in the country's north. Last year's catastrophe provoked bitter criticism of authorities over the lack of fire-fighting aircraft. Authorities have rented a Russian Beriev BE 200 water bomber plane, but it has suffered a breakdown and is not expected to be operational again until Saturday, according to Interior Minister Kamel Beldjoud.

Alps see record glacier melt during Europe heat waves - Pascal Egli has run on trails winding through the Alps for nearly two decades, but until this summer, he had never seen the mountains so bare.Extreme heat waves had transformed the mountain landscape. Routes once considered easy were now dangerous. Snow bridges over crevasses collapsed, making certain areas impassable. Rocks had tumbled unexpectedly from glaciers and bare mountainsides, injuring and even killing some in their path. “By mid-June, it was really, really kind of shocking,” said Egli, who received his PhD in glaciology from the University of Lausanne in Switzerland this summer. “It was getting so hot and things are melting so fast, you couldn’t safely do certain 4,000-meter [13,000-feet] peak routes anymore because some crevasse bridges were a bit unsure.” By the end of June, many mountaineers stopped going out on the glaciers — months earlier than normal. While European glaciers have been shrinking for decades, data and field reports show that the melting this summer is the most severe on record. Some glaciers have melted one to two months faster than normal, which researchers say is the latest drastic example of the effect of human-caused climate change. And there’s already been wide impact: Ski resorts across the Alps closed the summer ski season early because of unsafe conditions. In rare occurrences, normal, easier routes were closed on mountains including Mont Blanc and Matterhorn.“I would say it is off the charts compared to anything we’ve ever measured before,” Mylène Jacquemart, a glaciologist at ETH Zurich, said in an email. “We are currently seeing conditions that, even in a pretty bad year, we would only expect at the very end of the season. When we calculate the final mass balance at the end of September, I expect that it will be the worst year on record by a large margin.”Andrea Fischer, a glacier scientist at the Austrian Academy of Science, agreed that this year’s melt season is exceptional. “This melt season does not compare to others, as we have no evidence of such an extreme melt in our records,” which began in 1948. Data shared with Reuters indicated mass loss in the Alps is the highest in at least 60 years. The Alps, as well as other European glaciers, play an important role in the region. Mountain snowpack provides water to major rivers, delivering up to 90 percent of water to lowland Europe for drinking, irrigation and hydropower. The Alps also attract more than 120 million people, like Egli, for adventure sports and to ski resorts. Declines in these Alpine glaciers can stress the economy, and the loss in snow cover can exacerbate global warming and increase sea level rise.Punishing summer heat waves triggered the melt, but processes that initiated the rapid melt off began months ago.Winter snowpack was lower than normal — only half the typical amount at the end of the season, Jacquemart said — limiting the growth of the glacier. For instance, Switzerland’s Gries Glacier recorded its lowest snow quantity on record at about 53 percent below average in April.At the end of winter and early spring, large plumes of dust from the Sahara coated the snow surface, darkening the glaciers. The darker surface absorbed more sunlight rather than reflecting it back into space, helping to warm what little snow had fallen.Spring was also abnormally warm and dry for much of Western Europe, with little snow falling at high elevations on the glacier. Then summer heat came in full force early on. Southwest Europereached its highest average May maximum temperature in 55 years of records. Then Europe experienced its second-warmest June on record.

 Multiple Earth-directed CMEs, G2 - Moderate geomagnetic storm predicted for August 18 - A G2 – Moderate geomagnetic storm watch is in effect for August 18, 2022, as a result of CME activity on August 14 and 15 coupled with a recurrent, negative polarity CH HSS. Increased activity continued into August 16, with C8.4 and M5.0 from AR 3078 located at the center of the solar disk. There is a chance for X-class solar flares through August 18 or even stronger geomagnetic storms. Solar activity reached moderate levels over the past 36 hours, with 5 M- and numerous C-class flares. A geoeffective Active Region 3078 (‘Beta-Gamma-Delta’), the most magnetically complex and the most active spot group on the visible disk, produced an M1.0 flare at 14:36 UTC on August 15, M2.7 at 16:54 UTC, M1.1 at 21:53 UTC and M5.0 at 07:58 UTC on August 16. After exhibiting an overall decay, Region 3079 (‘Beta’) began to show signs of minor redevelopment near its intermediate and trailer spots on August 15. It produced an M0.9 flare at 17:35 UTC, as well as multiple C-class flares. A filament eruption, centered near S21W43, began after 04:00 UTC on August 15, producing a long-duration X-ray event that reached C3 at 05:22 UTC. Subsequent coronagraph imagery indicated a coronal mass ejection (CME) signature from the eruption that, following further analysis, is likely to catch the partial-halo CME from August 14, and arrive at Earth simultaneously.

The IRA and the four horsemen of the climate apocalypse -The bill will cut US emissions by between 31% and 44% below 2005 levels by 2030,according to Rhodium Group, a non-partisan research firm. A separate analysis by Energy Innovation, another research house, has found a similar reduction, of between 37% and 41% this decade. But will it do the trick of saving the planet? As it is, the bill actually allows for an expansion of oil and gas drilling in national parks and land as a sop to Manchin. There may be yet more concessions to the fossil fuel lobby. Then there are actual measures proposed in the IRA. “This is a massive turning point,” argues Leah Stokes, a climate policy expert at the University of California, Santa Barbara. “This bill includes so much, it comprises nearly $370bn in climate and clean energy investments. That’s truly historic. Overall, the IRA is a huge opportunity to tackle the climate crisis.” But is it? Much of the bill is really tax credits to companies to invest in clean energy projects as well as a rebate of up to $7,500 for Americans who want to buy new electric vehicles. There is $9bn to retrofit houses to make them more energy efficient, tax credits for heat pumps and rooftop solar and a $27bn “clean energy technology accelerator” to help deploy new renewable technology. A further $60bn would go towards environmental justice projects and there is a new program to reduce leaks of methane, a potent greenhouse gas, from oil and gas drilling. Much of this is not direct public investment in climate projects but incentives to the private sector to do the right thing. The capitalist sector is being left to deliver on these targets. And that’s the US. Elsewhere in the world, investment in meeting the already very modest target of limiting the global temperature rise to 1.5C by 2030 is looking way too little. Indeed, the opposite is happening. For example, because of the threatened loss of energy in Europe from blocked Russian imports, the EU parliament has voted to designate gas and nuclear as sustainable! The need for energy to heat homes and fuel industry and transport after the Ukraine crisis has come into conflict with the aim to save the planet. The irony is that a global recession would reduce the demand for fossil fuel energy globally and so help reduce the impact on the planet.And then there is the war itself. The military sector globally is the largest emitter of greenhouse gases in economies. And yet Nato’s secretary-general Jens Stoltenberg promised the alliance’s Madrid summit recently that there would be a nearly eightfold expansion in forces on high alert to 300,000. And member countries are also hiking defence spending to at least 2 per cent of GDP , “which is increasingly considered a floor, not a ceiling”. Russia’s military spending in 2021 hit $66bn, says the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute. But even then, the US was spending $801bn a year and other Nato members about $363bn. NATO will be outspending Russia’s military by about 10 to one in the region, notes Dan Plesch of SOAS, University of London.What the war and sky-high energy prices have brought home is that carbon pricing is no answer to controlling global warming. In effect, we’ve now got a global carbon tax, inflicting real hardship on people around the world without necessarily doing much to speed the transition from carbon.I have argued against this ‘market solution’ in previous posts. Instead we need a global plan of public investment into things society does need, like renewable energy, organic farming, public transportation, public water systems, ecological remediation, public health, quality schools and other currently unmet needs. And it could equalize development the world over by shifting resources out of useless and harmful production in the North and into developing the South, building basic infrastructure, sanitation systems, public schools, health care. At the same time, a global plan could aim to provide equivalent jobs for workers displaced by the retrenchment or closure of unnecessary or harmful industries. None of those outcomes are offered by the IRA.

States Will Decide How Much Democrats’ Historic Climate Deal Actually Cuts Emissions - Democrats’ deal to spend billions on clean energy tax credits could spur development of enough carbon-cutting infrastructure to slash planet-heating emissions in the world’s largest economy by 40%, putting the United States’ climate goal in reach.But states will ultimately decide how quickly and how much of the Inflation Reduction Act actually ends up reducing emissions. Should a power plant owner build a gas-fired plant with carbon capture technology or go with renewables? Public service commissioners and regional grid operators will decide. Key permitting requirements? Various state regulatory agencies are in charge there. Can transmission lines or pipelines pass through a tract of rural land? County officials will choose whether to rezone the property. On its current trajectory, the U.S. is on track to cut its emissions by about 30% compared to 2005 levels by the end of this decade, when nearly two dozen coal-fired power plants are scheduled to close ahead of new environmental regulations taking effect. Once President Joe Biden signs the so-called IRA into law, the $369 billion earmarked for heat pumps, wind farms and carbon-capture infrastructure could slash emissions another 10% or so, three separate independent analyses found. Combined with last year’s bipartisan infrastructure law, the legislation outlines the first permanent national strategy to stop the world’s No. 1 cumulative emitter from adding more warming gasses to the atmosphere. Alone it is insufficient to slow the planet’s rising temperatures. But if passed, the 10-year torrent of tax credits and subsidies it provides would give U.S. negotiators leverage for what’s really needed to change the planet’s temperature trajectory: a binding global decarbonization deal that includes China, India and Russia.

Inflation Reduction Act Could Result In More Energy Service Inflation - The US Inflation Reduction Act will usher in more energy service inflation in the next 18 months as the incentives offered to manufacturers struggle to keep up with the increased demand triggered by the bill, Rystad Energy claims. Rystad Energy’s research shows that there will be a positive impact on domestic energy security and the US’ position in the global low-carbon supply chain, but significant growing pains are likely in the coming years. The bill will provide over $100 billion to accelerate construction start dates for low-carbon developments, including solar, wind, and battery storage. These measures will undoubtedly increase renewable energy installations and short-term demand for US manufacturing, given the focus on domestic production and procurement. However, the $60 billion provided for expanding manufacturing capabilities will struggle to alleviate existing inflation or even keep pace with expected growth. The analytics firm stated that deflationary clouds recently circled above the US energy industry, with the cost of goods and services falling across several disciplines. In June 2022, prices fell across civil, mechanical, and electrical goods and services month-over-month, with steel leading the way. The extent to which this deflation will pick up speed or stall depends mainly on the economic moves by the US’ biggest global economic adversary – China. Producer inflation in China is at an almost 18-month low as manufacturing capacity increases and coincides with a global demand decrease. The country’s short-term stimulus policies will significantly impact the global inflation outlook. If China employs low expansionary policies, new project module construction prices will start to fall before the end of this year. On the other hand, high expansionary policies – which are now a viable option for policymakers due to recent domestic slowdowns caused by weakening global demand – would increase prices by an additional 10 percent this year and only start to fall in 2023. “Cost inflation in the US energy industry has hit operators, manufacturers, and suppliers hard – and the Inflation Reduction Act shows no signs of addressing that in the near term. The fate of the industry’s future inflation or deflation lies firmly in the hands of the Chinese, fittingly, as US policymakers attempt to build and strengthen a domestic supply chain and attempt to avoid such reliance in the future,” says Matthew Fitzsimmons, senior vice president with Rystad Energy. Elements of the Inflation Reduction Act are designed to boost the domestic energy labor market with wage requirements for developers to take advantage of tax credits. The number of US oil and gas extraction employees has grown by 25 percent in the past 18 months, returning to pre-Covid-19 pandemic levels. As a knock-on effect, the number of unemployed American workers actively looking for oil and gas jobs has been at its lowest since 2005. While previous wage premiums have saved the day and enticed workers to help grow domestic oil and gas production previously, the bill will pose new competitive challenges for oil and gas recruitment. To receive tax credits for clean energy projects, developers must comply with wage requirements set by the Secretary of Labor. Wage rates will be determined by averages based on region and job title to ensure that workers also benefit from the legislation. Developers found to be underpaying workers will have to pay fines to compensate for violations or risk losing their tax benefits. According to Rystad, these projects require apprenticeship thresholds to be met for developers to receive full tax benefits. For projects commenced in 2022, 10 percent of all labor hours spent on construction, alteration, or repairs must be performed by qualified apprentices. This percentage increases to 12.5 percent in 2023 and 15 percent in 2024. Some roles, including supervisors, superintendents, and administrative staff, are excluded from these rules, so in practice, they only apply to employees directly involved in installing or maintaining facilities.

Mining projects get new tax break under climate bill - Mining companies operating in the U.S. are poised to get a potential windfall from the Democrats’ landmark climate, health care and tax legislation that passed Friday. Environmentalists heralded the package for its large tax breaks for wind, solar and battery developers. But tucked inside the bill’s roughly 700 pages is a new incentive for an industry that greens often oppose. An advanced manufacturing tax credit included an added bonus: Mining companies will be able to write off 10 percent of the cost of their operations if they produce any amount of “critical minerals” — a term used by government agencies to describe minerals considered essential to national security and the economy that are vulnerable to foreign supply disruptions. To qualify for the tax break, mining companies will have to produce at least one of a laundry list of minerals — including lithium, cobalt and nickel — which are minerals used in batteries for low-carbon energy and transportation goods like electric vehicles. Companies will also need the minerals to achieve a certain purity specified in the bill. “It’s a huge boon for critical minerals within the United States,” said Ben Steinberg, executive vice president of the Battery Materials & Technology Coalition, an ad-hoc industry group made up of mining and mineral processing interests. Industry projections show more mining will be needed to supply raw materials for the vast changes needed to switch the world away from fossil fuels. Some minerals needed to make products synonymous with climate action — like electric vehicles or hydrogen fuel cells — are primarily mined and refined in other countries. That’s why Rep. Tim Ryan (D-Ohio), who is running for Senate, said he supports helping the mining industry in the climate bill. Just like natural gas, he said, there has “got to be a bridge” to help wean the country off of foreign minerals during the energy transition. “We don’t want to rely on China. This is the ‘red, white and blue’ bill, as far as I’m concerned,” Ryan told reporters Friday. Ryan’s view was similar to Rep. Debbie Dingell (D-Mich.), who said the tax language was part of “a lot of things here that are going to help manufacturers” and “help bring the supply chain back.” “What you don’t want is to increase dependency on China,” she said. Hardrock mining companies already enjoy a relatively preferential system in the United States compared to other forms of resource extraction. Unlike coal mining or drilling for oil, companies that extract critical minerals on federal lands pay no royalties, as laid out under a 150-year-old mining law. Getting some hardrock mining royalties into law has long been a priority of House Natural Resources Chairman Raúl Grijalva (D-Ariz.). Indeed, Democrats included one in early drafts of the budget reconciliation process. Grijalva said he sees the final language as relief for an industry that doesn’t need it. He supported the bill despite concerns about mining and fossil fuel provisions, but hopes to keep pushing for mining reform. “I hope it does open the door to a real discussion about royalties on federal land,” he said during an interview Friday.

The IRA is predicted to reduce emissions by 40%. It’s not that simple. - The Inflation Reduction Act — the health care and climate bill that was signed into law by President Biden on Tuesday — marks the largest climate action ever taken by the federal government. With roughly $370 billion earmarked for clean energy, electric vehicles and carbon capture storage, the bill will certainly decrease the country’s greenhouse gas emissions.The question is by how much. The most popular number — the one that has been repeated by the president, scientists and journalists alike — is 40 percent. In a statement released shortly after the deal was reached, Democratic senators Charles E. Schumer (N.Y.) and Joe Manchin III (W.Va.) claimed the new bill would, by 2030, cut emissions 40 percent from 2005 levels. That figure was later supported by results from three independent modeling teams. Rhodium Group, an economics and energy research firm, estimated that the bill would cut emissions by 31 to 44 percent by 2030; Energy Innovation, a climate think tank, predicted a reduction of 37 to 41 percent; and a group of Princeton University researchers called the REPEAT project calculated a carbon dioxide cut of around 42 percent. The agreement between the senators’ claims and the projections is no surprise — the modeling teams were advising Capitol Hill staff on the likely impacts of the deal before it was made public, said Jesse Jenkins, one of the leaders of the Princeton REPEAT modeling project.That 40 percent number will be repeated at international climate negotiations and in presidential speeches for years to come. It marks progress toward the president’s signature climate goal — to cut emissions in half by 2030 — and may offer some hope to the millions of young people who have been drawn to climate action in recent years.But is it correct? That depends — on how you’re measuring, and what you’re measuring against.At the heart of these predictions are scientists’ highly complicated models of how the economy works, including how energy is used, which can both provide helpful forecasts for the future and are alwayssomewhat inaccurate. As one popular modeling saying goes: “All models are wrong; some are useful.”The energy models used by Rhodium, Energy Innovation and the Princeton researchers are complex systems of equations, spreadsheets and data that try to represent all the energy used in the United States over a period of time. These models can estimate how many solar farms will be built once tax credits are in place to make them cheaper, or how many Americans will buy electric cars in the next 10 years. The fact that all three independent modeling groups yielded similar findings is a good sign for the results. But there are still reasons to think that the reality could be different from what the models suggest the bill’s impact will be — or what the public might expect it to be.On the one hand, the models predicting a 40 percent drop in carbon emissions may be overly optimistic. Jenkins, a Princeton engineering professor, says that one of the major problems is predicting how quickly consumers, utilities and businesses will switch over to clean technologies. “The biggest thing in our model that is an abstraction of the real world is the assumption that financial considerations drive decision-making,” he explained. Models assume that human beings are rational actors who base their decisions off costs and benefits; in the real world, that’s not always true. That means that if it’s cheaper to build a wind farm than a natural gas plant, or cheaper to buy an electric car than a gas-powered car, the model predicts that more wind farms will be built and more electric cars purchased. The REPEAT model currently predicts that all cars sold in 2030 will be electric vehicles, since by that time EVs are projected to be lower cost than gas-powered cars. But in the real world, some consumers will be afraid to switch to EVs even if they are cheaper, simply because they don’t see enough car chargers in their neighborhoods. Similarly, wind farms and solar panels may be stymied by locals who find them ugly to look at. Long-distance transmission lines, which will be needed to carry renewable electricity from one state to another, could also be held up by red tape.

The New US Climate Law Will Reduce Carbon Emissions and Make Electricity Less Expensive, Economists Say - U.S. consumers are expected to save money on their electricity bills under the nation’s first comprehensive climate law—perhaps more than $200 billion over the next decade, economists project. Even utilities are talking about eased prices at the same time they are detailing new clean energy investments. The potential price drop flies in the face of an argument made by climate action foes for years—that a move to cleaner power will mean higher energy prices for U.S. homes and businesses. Instead, the Inflation Reduction Act signed this week by President Joe Biden will direct government support to companies that invest in and generate carbon-free power, lowering their costs in a way that will enable them to pass those savings to their customers, analysts say.Certainly, Democrats were weighing the politics when they chose such a consumer-friendly, incentives-based climate strategy. But the new climate law also reflects some of the latest thinking among economists. Recent research shows that higher prices, imposed through a tool like carbon taxing, may not be the best way to drive fossil fuel emissions out of U.S. electricity.In fact, more than half of U.S. residential consumers already are paying too much for electricity, if the carbon costs of the current electricity grid were taken into account, according to a study by University of California researchers. The study used $50 per ton as the societal cost of carbon emissions.“We found that the standard economic logic of carbon pricing doesn’t fit the electricity sector very well, due to the other pricing distortions in the industry,” said Severin Borenstein, faculty director of the energy institute at the University of California, Berkeley’s Haas School of Business. “Carbon pricing is still a powerful tool, but this shows it is important to think through the full context in which we are doing greenhouse gas regulation.” The Inflation Reduction Act includes an unprecedented $370 billion in federal spending to tackle climate change, much of it through tax credits for developers and producers of clean electricity. It’s an approach that would not have been effective in the early days of global attention to climate change, analysts believe, because solar and wind energy were still too expensive. “When solar was astronomically expensive, you could have given it a 30 percent tax credit and wouldn’t have made a whit of difference,” said James Stock, vice president for climate and sustainability at Harvard University, who served on the White House Council of Economic Advisers under President Barack Obama.

Summit loses effort to keep secret names of those in pipeline's path - The developer of a proposed $4.5 billion carbon capture pipeline in Iowa must release the names of landowners who could be impacted along its roughly 680-mile route, a district judge ruled. Summit Carbon Solutions, an Ames company that has proposed building a pipeline to transport liquefied carbon dioxide, failed to win a permanent injunction to keep secret the names of thousands of landowners it said could be in the pipeline's path. Under state law, Summit was required to hold public meetings for landowners potentially impacted by the pipeline project, and the company compiled a list with more than 10,000 names along the route. After the Iowa Utilities Board asked Summit to submit the names, the company asked state regulators to keep the list confidential. Summit also filed a petition with the court to keep the names secret. The Sierra Club of Iowa asked regulators to release the names under state's open records law, a move state Consumer Advocate Jennifer Easler also supported. In November, the Iowa Utilities Board decided it would keep secret most of the names, saying property owners' right to privacy outweighed the public's interest. The three-person board did, however, order Summit to release the names of businesses, cities, counties and other government entities that own land along the path. Board chairwoman Geri Huser dissented, saying she would have released the property owners' mailing addresses but not their names. On Friday, Polk County District Judge David Nelmark said Summit had failed to show landowner information should be excluded from state public records law. He ordered a temporary injunction allowing Summit to keep landowner names confidential to be lifted in 14 days. Nelmark said the order's enforcement could be delayed if there is an appeal to the Iowa Supreme Court. Summit officials said Monday the company was reviewing Nelmark's order and its legal options. The Sierra Club has said Summit seeks to prevent the release of landowner information to shut down communication among Iowans who want to fight the pipeline.

What Comes After the Coming Climate Anarchy? Time. In 2021, global carbon dioxide emissions reached 36.3 billion tons, the highest volume ever recorded. This year, the number of international refugees will cross 30 million, also the highest figure ever. As sea levels and temperatures rise and geopolitical tensions flare, it’s hard to avoid the conclusion that humanity is veering towards systemic breakdown. The superpowers will be no salvation: Locked in a “new Cold War,’ the U.S. careens between populism and incompetence, while China remains locked down at home and alienates many nations abroad. Our daily headlines underscore how we are overwhelmed by crises: COVID-19, natural disasters, ruptured supply chains, food shortages, international conflicts, spiking oil prices, failing states, refugee flows, and so forth. But these are not isolated incidents. They are manifestations of complexity—a global system in which the environment, economy, demographics, politics, and technology constantly collide in unpredictable ways. It was not a single event that caused the Roman and Mayan civilizations to collapse, but rather this complex collision of chain reactions. Today it’s fashionable to speak of civilizational collapse. The U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization’s (FAO) states that just a 1.5 degree Celsius rise will prove devastating to the world’s food systems by 2025. Meanwhile, the most recent IPCC report warns that we must reverse emissions by 2025 or face an irreversible accelerating breakdown in critical ecosystems, and that even if the Paris agreement goals are implemented, a 2.4 degree Celsius rise is all but inevitable. In other words, the “worst case” RCP 8.5 scenario used in many climate models is actually a baseline. The large but banal numbers you read—$2 trillion in annual economic damage, 10-15% lower global GDP, etc.—are themselves likely massively understated. The climate bill just passed by the Senate is barely a consolation prize in this drama: a welcome measure, but also too little to bring rains back to drought-stricken regions in America or worldwide. What if there isn’t a calm that lies beyond the current storm? Let’s assume that we are indeed hurtling towards the worst-case scenario by 2050: Hundreds of millions of people perish in heatwaves and forest fires, earthquakes and tsunamis, droughts and floods, state failures and protracted wars. Henry Gee, editor of the magazine Nature, wrote in an essay in Scientific American in late 2021 that even absent the hazards of climate change and nuclear war, humankind was heading towards extinction due to declining genetic variety and sperm quality. No wonder that philosophers such as Roy Scranton claim we need to “learn how to die.” But even in the most plausibly dire scenarios, billions of people will survive. Today’s world population stands at eight billion people, quadruple the population of a century ago. Even with accelerating Boomer mortality, low fertility, and the possibility of another global pandemic, a devastating world war, and climate induced famine, the world population would likely still stand at 6 billion people by 2050. Furthermore, we are not just a collection of local civilizations but a connected global system. Some nations and regions will break down, but others will become vital hubs for our future civilization. Unlike centuries past, billions of humans are physically capable of relocating if the need arises. We can preemptively reorganize ourselves for collective survival—if we try. So where will the young survivors of today’s storms gather over the next 20-30 years? Which technologies will be the platforms of our future societies and economies? What new model of civilization awaits us? Climate models reveal that each degree of temperature rise shifts the “climate niche” of optimal human habitation northward from the present 20-30 degrees latitude. In the 19th century, tens of millions of Europeans fled famine and hardship, resettling in the Americas, and a similar number of Chinese and Indian laborers circulated around the plantations of Asia. In the 20th century, imperial collapse, World Wars, ethnic expulsions, state failures, and economic migrations drove hundreds of millions of Europeans, Latinos, and Asians to resettle in new homes. Now, in the 21st century, more than one billion will be displaced by climate change. The decimal place is shifting to the right. Where might you live in 2050? Humankind is on the hunt for locations blessed with sufficient water, food, and energy resources. Canada and the Great Lakes region, central and northern Europe, southern Russia, and other regions are becoming relatively more livable (despite volatility in temperature extremes) in the decades ahead. From the British Isles to eastern Anatolia to Japan’s main island of Honshu, there are many depopulated yet verdant zones that can support larger numbers. Currently the latitudes most suitable for human habitation are currently the ones with the most rapidly aging populations. While the overall population of northern states has plateaued, countries such as Canada, Germany and Kazakhstan have become major migration magnets, even melting pots, as they collect skilled workers and refugees. Canada’s economic policy is its immigration policy, the engine of its diversification beyond commodities into technology and other sectors. Russia, the world’s largest country by landmass, is among the fastest de-populating due to elderly mortality, low fertility, and other maladies such as alcoholism and cancer. Russia’s politics don’t indicate a liberal cultural metamorphosis into a Eurasian Canada, but its dwindling demographics have already prompted it to import Uzbeks, Indians, and other foreigners to serve in its construction and agriculture sectors. In 2021, Russia was the world’s largest wheat exporter; in the future, almost all of its farmers may be foreigners.

DOE outlines challenges for wind. Will the IRA help? - - Hours before President Joe Biden signed the Inflation Reduction Act, the Energy Department released reports yesterday on the state of U.S. wind power that raise questions that may linger despite the new law’s policy supports.The three reports — focused on onshore, offshore and distributed wind power, respectively — outlined the wind industry’s struggles over the past year while concluding that it’s healthy. The reports did not consider the IRA’s possible effects on wind growth.Thirteen gigawatts of wind came online last year, enough to power 4 million homes, DOE noted. That was the second largest amount ever, according to industry figures.Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm predicted in a call with reporters the IRA would “breathe new life into this industry” and trigger a larger boom.“For all the fantastic growth wind energy has seen over the last decade, I’m confident that the best years in this sector are ahead of us,” Granholm said.That rosy view has been backed by energy system modelers from Princeton University’s REPEAT Project, who found American wind installations could double by 2025-2026 due to the IRA, which contains new and extended tax credits for wind production and domestic manufacturing of turbine parts (Energywire, Aug. 8).But DOE researchers outlined problems in their reports that have acted as a drag on the industry’s growth.One problem is how long it can take to connect new projects to the grid, which can rack up development costs.At the end of 2021, the reports say, a record amount of wind power, 247 GW, was waiting in transmission interconnection queues, including 73 GW that came onto the queue last year and 77 GW from offshore wind.Speeding up interconnection queues may prove to be an enduring challenge for wind, despite the IRA’s passage, said Ryan Wiser, a senior scientist at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory and corresponding author of DOE’s report on onshore wind.“We’re going to need to figure out how to properly move projects through the interconnection process in a faster way than we have in the past,” Wiser said during DOE’s media call. New transmission lines would also be needed to connect high-quality wind resources to load centers, he added. “Transmission and interconnection are key remaining barriers that are still to be resolved,” he said.

Wind energy is getting a big boost from the Inflation Reduction Act but local opposition, too | Iowa Public Radio - Iowa is a leader in wind energy production. The large wind turbines we’ve seen expanding in the state over the last decade have started showing up more and more in middle America – from Texas up through the Dakotas. But wind power only accounts for under 10 percent of the nation’s electricity generation. Now, the Inflation Reduction Act that awaits President Biden’s signature extends a tax credit for wind energy production through 2025. There were hardly any empty chairs at the Woodbury County Board of Supervisors meeting last week in the county courthouse in Sioux City. The supervisors were there to consider an amendment to an ordinance that would severely limit where wind farms can be built within the county. Most of the landowners who showed up want the distance between wind turbines to go from 1,250 feet to 2,500 feet. Farmer Daniel Hair from Hornick showed up with signatures he’d collected at the county fair. “I have right here in my hand over 720 signatures from residents of Woodbury County,” Hair told the supervisors. Landowners complained they didn’t want the towers on their landscape, that the flashing lights would be bothersome at night and that the money the local county would bring in… wasn’t worth it. MidAmerican Energy says 60 landowners have already signed up for its Siouxland Wind Farm and they’ve invested $1.4 million dollars in the project. Adam Jablonski with MidAmerican said the 2,500 setback would wipeout any buildable land. "If you look at the setback maps a 2,500 foot setback would effectively allow somebody half mile away to decide what you can and can't do with your property," Jablonski said. Farmer Daniel Hair told me after the meeting Woodbury County is just too populated. “I think maybe there's a time and a place for a wind but it's not here in this county where all these people live," Hair said. "My argument to them is it's not meant to be here in Woodbury county build elsewhere.” Other counties in Iowa have moved to restrict wind production in the state. In Madison County, the board of supervisors put an effective ban on wind energy production. Supervisor Diane Fitch says part of her concern comes from not trusting the large energy companies. “Let’s say they start losing money and they say you know what we can’t really afford to pay you this year," Fitch said. "What are you going to do about it? They’re so big, they keep you in court until your great grandchildren are dead.” But Heather Zichal with the American Clean Power Association says the pros of wind energy outweigh any cons. “Wind is a free resource," Zichal said. "it is not subject to the whims of what's happening in Ukraine, or the global commodities, prices for natural gas, farmers and communities are benefiting from the taxes and fees paid to landowners and state and local governments.”

Lake Erie wind project backers look to reboot progress - The backers of the Great Lakes’ first offshore wind farm are working to reboot the project following an Ohio Supreme Court decision this week that resolves more than two years of legal and regulatory uncertainty. The Icebreaker Wind project was first proposed more than a decade ago by a public-private partnership in northern Ohio. The 20.7-megawatt project will consist of six turbines installed about 8 miles north of Cleveland. The project has been largely mothballed since May 2020, when state regulators approved a permit for the project with a “poison pill” provision that would have kept it from operating for much of the year. That set off months of legal and regulatory appeals that were finally resolved by a 6-1 decision Wednesday by the Ohio Supreme Court. “Despite the good news today, it is going to be challenging to get this project rolling forward again,” said Will Friedman, president and CEO of the Port of Cleveland and a board member of LEEDCo, the Lake Erie Energy Development Corporation, which was formed in 2009 to launch the project. The project has a commitment from the city of Cleveland and Cuyahoga County to purchase one-third of the electricity, but efforts to sell the remaining two-thirds were put on hold amid the legal challenges. Without commitments to buy all of the electricity, it’s unlikely the project will be able to borrow money for upfront construction costs. Meanwhile, the project’s lead officer, Dave Karpinski, left his role as president last summer for another job. Other key staff members have retired. Friedman said one of the first priorities in the wake of the court ruling will involve staffing. Fred. Olsen Renewables remains contracted as a developer for the project. As the United States’ first freshwater-based wind farm, Icebreaker is a pilot project. The project caught a break in January when the U.S. Department of Energy extended a deadline for LEEDCo to use previous grant money. Additional funding will be necessary even if the promoters get commitments to sell all the output at market rates.

Ohio Supreme Court weighs fate of local wind farm — The Emerson Creek wind farm in Erie and Huron counties is on hold until the Ohio Supreme Court rules on the latest attempt by opponents to block the project. A decision by the Ohio Supreme Court appears to be months away. While the court has received briefs in the case, it has not yet scheduled oral arguments. When the Ohio Supreme Court weighs in, that’s likely to finally settle the matter, said Jack A. Van Kley, a Columbus attorney representing opponents of the wind farm. There are no issues of federal law in the case, he said. Firelands Wind LLC is attempting to build a wind farm consisting of up to 73 wind turbines in southern Erie County and northern Huron County. The Ohio Power Siting Board approved the project in the summer of 2021. When opponents filed an application for a rehearing, the board voted 6-0 in November to reject the application, apparently clearing the way for construction to begin late this year. But in January, opponents filed a notice of appeal to the Ohio Supreme Court. The appeal claims that setbacks for the project aren’t sufficient to avoid bothering neighbors with the noise of the turbines. It also states the project jeopardizes underground water supplies and increases flooding risks, exposes neighbors to danger from “fires and blade shear,” would bother neighbors from shadow flicker from the blades and threatens local birds. The appeal was filed by Patricia Didion, Jane Fox, Marvin Hay, Theresa Hay, Patricia Olsen, Sheila Poffenbaugh, Walt Poffenbaugh, Christina Popa, John Popa, Lori Riedy, Charles Rogers, Kenn Rospert, Dennis Schreiner, Sharon Schreiner, Donna Seaman, William Seaman, Deborah Weisenauer, Kenneth Weisenauer, Gerard Wensink and the Black Swamp Bird Observatory. In response, Firelands Wind LLC says that all of the issues raised by the project’s opponents were covered in a process before the Ohio Power Siting Board that took two and a half years. For example, Firelands Wind asserts that it carried out thorough studies of the impact of the project on birds. “Approximately 2,000 hours over multiple years of survey effort for birds was included in Firelands’ Application; far more data and studies than has been submitted for other applications before the (Power Siting) Board, all of which have been approved,” a brief says. Amicus briefs supporting the wind farm have been filed by local farmers, the Ohio Chamber of Commerce and the Ohio Environmental Council. In its brief, the Ohio Environmental Council asserts that it is urgent to let wind power projects go forward once they have been reviewed by the state. “Renewable energy generation is under constant attack in Ohio, and its assailants utilize the same tactics from case to case, spreading misinformation about projects more protective of human health and the environment than almost any other form of energy generation,” the brief asserts. “In some instances, the opposition to renewable energy has its legal fees directly funded by fossil fuel interests. The pattern and practice of renewable energy facility appeals illustrate a coordinated opposition designed to deprive Ohio companies, communities, and consumers of the benefits of renewable energy — and Ohio’s future as a leader in the fight against the climate crisis,” it claims.

Why Solar Power Is Failing Amid Record-Breaking Heat - With heatwaves being reported worldwide, leading to wildfires and other environmental concerns, at least one energy sector is getting attention for its major producing potential – solar power. But with solar panels collecting energy from the sun’s radiation, the world’s overheating may (unexpectedly) be of little benefit to solar power production. However, this is not stopping rising consumer interest as people are driven to invest in solar technology as they see both hotter summers and rising consumer prices. With some of the hottest summers on record for several decades in many parts of the world, it must be doing wonders for solar power, right? As the world heats up, people may think that more sun will bring more solar energy, even if it has been negative for many other reasons. But soaring temperatures may be hindering solar power production as solar panels work optimally at around 25oC and start becoming less efficient when the heat goes above this. And even if the heat does not hamper solar production, it is also doing little to help it. With record temperatures being seen across much of Europe this summer, as the U.K. reached 40oC in July, solar farms have been seeing positive output levels, with Solar Energy U.K. reporting on 20th July that the country’s solar power output had “met up to a quarter of the U.K.’s power demand”. But this is mostly down to the country seeing more days of sunlight rather than higher temperatures. Of course, when there’s sun there’s solar power. But because of the way solar panels work, they become slightly less efficient, by around 0.5 percent, for any degree over or under 25oC. This means that peak production periods in much of the world often happen in cooler spring months rather than during the summer. Although Solar Energy U.K. believes that significant disruptions would only be seen if temperatures were to rise to highs of 65oC or above. CEO of the firm, Chris Hewett, stated: “It’s marginally better for efficiency in the spring but essentially if you have more light, you produce more solar power.” He added, “You have to remember that solar panels work all over the world. The same technology we put on our roofs is used in solar farms in the Saudi Arabian desert.”

States jockey for position, launch partnerships as they vie for $8B of federal hydrogen funding - Both New York and Oregon have joined regional bids for hydrogen hub funding from the Department of Energy, representatives from both states said during a Thursday webinar hosted by the National Association of State Energy Officials. Both states have launched planning exercises intended to integrate hydrogen into their clean energy roadmaps, with current efforts focused on defining the resource that will qualify as “green” or renewable hydrogen and weighing how to distribute incentives. While the federal hydrogen hub fund is certainty attractive, there is more than one end game in mind, said Ian Latimer, senior program manager for the New York State Energy Research and Development Authority. “Even if you don’t win a hub, you have to plan for things,” he said. “Hydrogen is happening whether you win the hub or not.”A federal offer of $8 billion in funding for regional hydrogen “hubs” remains keenly interesting to state leaders across the nation, but with the competition heating up, states are looking for partnerships that might shore up their bid for hub status — and becoming increasingly tight-lipped about their official application plans.Both Latimer and Rebecca Smith, a senior policy analyst for the Oregon Department of Energy, said their respective states had hub applications in the works in partnership with neighboring states, although both declined to discuss any details of their applications with the audience of NASEO’s webinar.“It wouldn’t be hydrogen if we didn’t talk hub,” Latimer said. “Governor [Kathy] Hochul has announced her intent to compete for a hub, and I can only go into so much detail, but in March she announced a multi-state agreement to form a northeast regional hydrogen hub.”In Oregon, which has joined Washington state in an effort to create a regional hub in the Pacific Northwest, the state legislature has ordered a study of how hydrogen might benefit the state’s renewable energy and climate targets, Smith said. In addition to assembling and coordinating with stakeholders for the study, much of the conversation around hydrogen in the state has centered on how to define “green” or renewable hydrogen, she said.“Perhaps one of the most important things that a legislature can do right now is to define clean renewable hydrogen,” she said. “This isn’t as straightforward as one might expect.”Definitions could be based on lifecycle emissions or emissions at the point of production, feedstock or method of production, or by other means, Smith said. But establishing a definition, she said, will be critical to determining who is eligible for state-level renewable energy and hydrogen-specific incentives.Whether states should focus on funding the production of hydrogen, or funding end-users who will create markets for hydrogen potential end-users also emerged as a critical question during the webinar. While Latimer said encouraging end-users to establish proof of demand seemed to be the key to launching a sustainable hydrogen economy, Smith said Oregon had come to a different conclusion when taking emissions into account.

The electric car Battery Belt is reshaping America’s heartland - The climate bill President Biden signed into law yesterday will open up tens of billions of dollars in subsidies for high-tech electric vehicle plants across the South and the Midwest.The package is a big down payment on addressing climate change and moving toward energy independence as the U.S. races to build a domestic supply chain for batteries and other critical materials.It could also be a major economic jolt for a large swath of the country some are calling the Battery Belt, where lots of EV-related factories and facilities are being built.The auto industry has already poured billions into new EV and battery manufacturing facilities across North America over the last couple years.Now automakers and battery suppliers will be eligible for billions of dollars in federal loans and tax credits to offset those costs and spur additional investments. The government will provide a tax credit of $35 per kilowatt hour (kWh) for each U.S.-produced battery cell.That's 35% of today's average cost of producing a battery cell. Ford, for instance, could get a $3 billion tax break for the twin factories it's building in Kentucky, which will be able to produce 86 gigawatt hours' worth of batteries annually. (The IRS still has to figure out how exactly the credits will work.)There's also a tax credit for U.S.-produced battery modules — groups of cells bundled together that fit inside a battery pack.At $10/kWh, the credit would whack about one-third off the cost of assembling an EV battery pack, according to Bloomberg NEF. Critical materials and minerals produced in the U.S. also get a 10% tax credit under the new law.That will help companies like Redwood Materials, which is investing $3.5 billion in Nevada for cathode and anode processing — essential work in the battery production process that's currently done mostly overseas.There's also $2 billion in grants to retool existing auto plants to make clean vehicles, and up to $20 billion more in loans to build new factories. And yet automakers aren't happy about the law, largely because its strict supply chain requirements mean far fewer electric vehicles will qualify for big consumer tax credits right off the bat.

A Frustrating Hassle Holding Electric Cars Back: Broken Chargers - The federal government is doling out billions of dollars to encourage people to buy electric vehicles. Automakers are building new factories and scouring the world for raw materials. And so many people want them that the waiting lists for battery-powered cars are months long. The electric vehicle revolution is nearly here, but its arrival is being slowed by a fundamental problem: The chargers where people refuel these cars are often broken. One recent study found that about a quarter of the public charging outlets in the San Francisco Bay Area, where electric cars are commonplace, were not working. A major effort is underway to build hundreds of thousands of public chargers — the federal government alone is spending $7.5 billion. But drivers of electric cars and analysts said that the companies that install and maintain the stations need to do more to make sure those new chargers and the more than 120,000 that already exist are reliable. Many sit in parking lots or in front of retail stores where there is often no one to turn to for help when something goes wrong. Problems include broken screens and buggy software. Some stop working midcharge, while others never start in the first place. Some frustrated drivers say the problems have them second-guessing whether they can fully abandon gas vehicles, especially for longer trips. “Often, those fast chargers have real maintenance issues,” said Ethan Zuckerman, a professor at the University of Massachusetts Amherst who has owned a Chevrolet Bolt for several years. “When they do, you very quickly find yourself in pretty dire straits.” In the winter of 2020, Mr. Zuckerman was commuting about 150 miles each way to a job at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. The cold winter weather can reduce the driving range of electric cars, and Mr. Zuckerman found himself needing a charge on the way home. He checked online and found a station, but when he pulled up to it, the machine was broken. Another across the street was out, too, he said. In desperation, Mr. Zuckerman went to a nearby gas station and persuaded a worker there to run an extension cord to his car. “I sat there for two and a half hours in the freezing cold, getting enough charge so that I could limp to the town of Lee, Mass., and then use another charger,” he said. “It was not a great night.”

Can the Texas power grid survive the crypto mining boom? - In the past year or so, Texas has become a hub for crypto mining. All day long, computers solve complex math equations in order to earn new crypto coins, using a ton of energy. Mines have been lured to Texas because of the state’s generally low energy prices and lack of regulation. But the Texas power grid though is already fragile, and it’s unclear whether it can handle the extra electrical burden. Last winter, when the state was struck by unusually cold weather, high prices and massive outages left hundreds of residents dead. The debt toll ranges from a government-estimated 246 people to more than 700.In the past month, a heat wave caused a spike in power demand, pushing the grid close to capacity once again. Residents were warned to conserve power, though the state managed to avoid widespread blackouts this time. As extreme weather due to climate change is pushing the grid to its limits, Texas is welcoming a growing industry that’s entirely dependent on electricity.On Friday’s episode of What Next: TBD, I spoke with Texas Monthly reporter Russell Gold about crypto mining in Texas and how the state’s power grids will fare against the increased electricity usage. Our conversation has been edited and condensed for clarity.

• Sonari Glinton: You reported that an industry group estimates 9 percent of all cryptocurrency mining in the world happens in Texas, a number that could reach 20 percent by the end of 2023. But Texas wasn’t always a hub for crypto mining. The influx began a few years ago, when other countries started cracking down on the energy-intensive practice, right?
• Russell Gold: The first large-scale crypto mines, they were looking for places like Iceland and Scandinavia, where it was cool and where there was cheap power. And then once all those locations said, “You know what? We don’t want to go forward,” it goes over to China. And then last year, China says, “Wait a second. We’re not going to hit our climate pledges, our environmental goals. We’re even becoming wary of this.”And then it migrates over to Texas. Texas has thrown the doors wide open for these crypto mines. “Come use our electricity.” This is the Texas motto.
• How big is the Texas power grid in megawatts, and much do we think mining is going to expand energy-wise?
• Well, the last month we set some records, and we topped out at about 77,000 to 78,000 megawatts. Right now we’re using about 2,000 megawatts to mine crypto, and that’s going up to 5,000 by the end of 2023. This is already a fairly considerable electrical user on the grid. And we’re already talking like 3, 4 percent and heading upwards from there. 20,000 megawatts of crypto mines have applied. That’s roughly the equivalent of Houston and its suburbs in terms of its electricity usage, including all of the big refineries and petrochemical plants outside of Houston.

It’s not just the dams: The Western drought is threatening the entire energy sector – It takes a lot of water to make power. From spinning turbines to hydraulic fracturing to refining fuel, the flow of water is critical to the flow of electrons and heat. About 40 percent of water withdrawals — water taken out of groundwater or surface sources — in the United States go toward energy production. The large majority of that share is used to cool power plants. In turn, it requires energy to extract, purify, transport, and deliver water. So when temperatures rise and water levels drop, the energy sector gets squeezed hard. The consequences of water shortages are playing out now in swaths of the American West, where an expansive, decades-long drought is forcing drastic cuts in hydroelectric power generation. At the same time, exceptional heat has pushed energy demand to record highs. As the climate changes, these stresses will mount. The United Nations Environment Programme warned this month that if drought conditions persist, the two largest hydroelectric reservoirs in the US — Lake Mead and Lake Powell —could eventually reach “dead pool status,” where water levels fall too low to flow downstream. Lake Mead fuels the Hoover Dam, which has a power capacity topping 2,000 megawatts while Lake Powell drives generators that peak at 1,300 megawatts at the Glen Canyon Dam. Power plants across huge swaths of the Western United States are under drought conditions. National Integrated Drought Information System “Water supplies for agriculture, fisheries, ecosystems, industry, cities, and energy are no longer stable given anthropogenic climate change,” Camille Calimlim Touton, commissioner of the Bureau of Reclamation, told Congress in June. With hydropower production falling in recent months, natural gas plants are filling the voidin the United States, leading to even more greenhouse gas emissions that heat up the planet. This isn’t just a problem in the US. Extreme weather around the world, worsened by climate change, is causing all sorts of stresses to power grids. France has had to curb output from its nuclear power plants because the water they use for cooling warmed up too much. French nuclear plants have also received allowances to discharge hotter water back into rivers to meet energy demand. Low water levels in the Rhine River are threatening to disrupt coal and gasoline shipments in Germany. As average temperatures continue to rise, many parts of the world will see energy demands grow and supplies constrained, with water as the key factor on both sides of the equation. The energy sector uses water differently than households, farms, and factories, because while it requires a lot, much of that water isn’t used up but instead goes back into reservoirs, rivers, and lakes. A dam can release water to spin a turbine to generate electricity and that water can be used again by another dam downstream, for instance. In the US, 90 percent of electricity comes from thermal power plants. They use a fuel — coal, gas, nuclear — to boil water into steam to spin a turbine that turns a generator. That water is contained in a closed loop. To condense the steam, however, these plants often draw on water sources to cool down. Most US power plants also use a closed loop for cooling, recirculating water with minimal loss, but 36 percent of plants use “once-through” cooling, taking in water from a source and then discharging it back into the lake, river, or ocean it came from. “The [thermal] power plants may withdraw a lot of water, but they return 98 percent of it, at a higher temperature,” But drought still affects power generation directly in several ways. For hydroelectric plants, lower water levels in a reservoir means there’s less energy available to produce electricity. Reservoirs like Lake Powell, behind the Glen Canyon Dam, store so much water that they can continue providing steady power even through drought years. But the long-term drying across the Western US has managed to drink up these reserves.

China's Power Crisis Worsens As More Factories Suspend Operations - A heatwave-induced power crisis is spreading across southwestern China, shuttering factories and worsening by the day, according to Nikkei Asia. The latest news from China is the Chongqing municipal government ordered factories, including Japanese-owned ones, to suspend production through Aug. 24 to conserve power as demand surges because of extreme heat. Chongqing is following its neighbor, Sichuan Province, which announced earlier this week that slumping hydropower generation has led to the closure of some of the world's largest multinationals, including Toyota Motor Corp. and Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Moody's Vice President and Senior Credit Officer Boris Kan pointed out the heatwave will only boost China's reliance on coal-fired generation. The recent power outage caused by heatwaves in Sichuan and Chongqing highlights the importance of coal power in ensuring China’s power supply security, at least in the short term. Moody’s Boris Kan comments. pic.twitter.com/VThsiHG7HD In Chongqing, specifically in the Liangjiang area, power demand has sur ged because extreme heat led to a spike in air conditioner use. Chongqing has a high concentration of factories that make automobiles and computers, and their shutdowns to conserve power could impact global supply chains. "Previously, the government had only required that factories cease production during consumption peaks, but the tight power supply-demand situation has become so severe that shutdowns were deemed necessary," Nikkie Asia said.

Kentucky coal company faces federal charges for faking coal dust tests - Mines are required to periodically submit coal dust levels to the Mine Safety and Health Administration (MSHA) to monitor particles that can cause the incurable black lung disease. Inspection records show that in October 2020, government mine inspectors noticed that for two days in a row Black Diamond Coal submitted test results for mining machine operators in Floyd County, even though inspectors saw workers weren’t wearing a testing device those days. In the safety report, inspectors called the pattern an “unwarrantable failure” to comply with standards.According to a federal indictment, Black Diamond’s dust sampling supervisor Walter Perkins told inspectors the testing machine was broken. Perkins claims he gave the machine to a miner to wear for the day, as regulations require, but took it out of service because “the miner man…hollered that the pump went off and said diagnosis failure.” But federal prosecutors say that story was a lie: Perkins was knowingly trying to cover up the fact that he never gave the testing machine to the miner, according to the indictment. Kim Redding is a former MSHA inspector who now consults with mining companies on compliance. He said if the company hadn’t submitted records, there might have just been a fine. But falsification of records dug the hole deeper. “Why would you lie about it?” Redding said. “If you screwed up, you screwed up. That’s the thing – that’s how these guys get in trouble is they falsify something. Because their job is to make sure [safety] things are happening. And if they’re not, push to get it happening.” Inspection records show Perkins left the testing device running in a first-aid building – not the mine. The report says the machine had no apparent failures that would have caused it to stop taking accurate measurements. About a week after the inspection, MSHA records show a coal dust sample taken by the company on the continuous mining machine well above government limits. If convicted, the company could incur steep fines and the dust sampling supervisor Walter Perkins faces fines and imprisonment. Both are mandated to appear in court in September. The indictment comes amid a growing epidemic of the black lung disease in Central Appalachia.Diagnoses of coal workers’ pneumoconiosis, commonly called black lung, have steadily increased in recent years. Research has tied the swell to a variety of factors–the ratio of rock-to-coal is different and miners increasingly encounter quartz, which produces lung-damaging silica dust.Mining is more mechanized than it used to be, too. Coal companies increasingly use continuous mining machines, which grinds up coal and rock into a fine dust that burrows deep into the lungs. New research has directly tied silica dust to black lung disease, but federal regulators continue to use old standards that don’t directly address its contributions.

California proposes to extend life of last nuclear plant at cost of $1.4 billion - Gov. Gavin Newsom has proposed keeping open California’s last nuclear plant for up to another 10 years as the state wrestles with how to meet power demand while it reduces its reliance on fossil fuels for energy. Plans to start closing the Diablo Canyon Power Plant over the next three years would be halted at a cost of up to $1.4 billion under draft legislation Newsom sent to legislators late Thursday, angering some of the governor’s environmentalist allies. Diablo Canyon provides nearly a tenth of the state’s electrical power. Critics have long sought its closure for reasons that include the potential danger of a radiation leak because of earthquakes along the seismically active central coast of California. It was scheduled to close by 2025. The proposed legislation would direct the California Public Utilities Commission to set a new closure date of Oct. 31, 2029 for one unit, and Oct. 31, 2030, for the other, according to the governor’s office. By 2026, regulators could consider an extension, but not beyond Oct. 31, 2035. The bill would carve out an exemption from state regulations to allow operators to maintain operations at the plant without conducting extensive technical analysis of the environmental effects. Extending the life of the nuclear plant would come at a cost. Pacific Gas & Electric, which operates the plant, applied to the U.S. Department of Energy’s $6 billion program to preserve the operations of nuclear power plants — though it’s unclear how much will be granted, or when. The language proposed by Newsom’s office this week would allow the state to grant PG&E a $1.4 billion forgivable loan to cover the costs of relicensing. Any extension would additionally require approvals by federal, state and local regulatory entities, the governor’s office said. PG&E said it is prepared to keep the plant running. “We are proud of the role that DCPP plays in our state, and we stand ready to support should there be a change in state policy, to help ensure grid reliability for our customers and all Californians at the lowest possible cost,” the utility said in a statement. Newsom in recent weeks has been praised for his calls for bold action on climate change, which includes speeding up the state’s carbon neutrality goals and transition to renewable energy. But news of this proposed extension for the Diablo Canyon Power Plant angered environmental advocates, who lambasted the governor for proposing the state circumvent its environmental protection laws to keep the plant going.

Bill would give watchdog group a say on Ohio utility commission | WOSU News Two of Ohio's Republican House of Representatives are sponsoring the effort to reform how the state appoints regulators to the Public Utilities Commission of Ohio. The bill follows investigations into the way regulators, lawmakers and utility companies engaged during the nuclear bailout scandal that took out former Republican Ohio House Speaker Larry Householder. But, as the year begins to dwindle away, it's unclear if the bill will move forward before this session of the General Assembly comes to end in December. House Bill 690 would allow the Ohio Consumers’ Counsel to nominate members to the commission overseeing utility rates in Ohio, the Public Utility Commission of Ohio, something that already occurs on the state’s board overseeing utility construction, the Ohio Power Siting Board, Rep. Laura Lanese (R-Grove City) said. “One of the things that the attention surrounding House Bill 6 did was to shine a spotlight on how a lot of those costs can be contained with the right people making those decisions,” she said. The goal of the bill Lanese introduced with Rep. Gayle Manning (R-North Ridgeville) is to start making changes that protect consumers in Ohio’s utility regulation process, Lanese said, “It's fallout from (the nuclear bailout scandal), to make sure that we have an energy policy that is fair to consumers, as well as trying to make sure that we don't let what happened in House Bill 6 to happened again,” Lanese said. The bill would require nominations from the OCC and require that at least one of those choices to be selected. Now, a nominating council makes recommendations to the governor, who appoints people to serve on the commission. The Ohio Consumers’ Counsel supports the bill. Mike Haugh is the director of analytical services for the counsel and is responsible for advocating for residential utility customers. He said this is something that they have asked for a say in the past. “We think that the consumer representative should be considered for one of the seats,” Haugh said. Plenty of commission members have had connections to the utility industry, so consumers should have a direct line, too, he said.

DeWine says he left nuclear bailout details to lawmakers - Gov. Mike DeWine says he left the language in Ohio's customer-funded nuclear bailout to lawmakers – even as text messages show Lt. Gov. Jon Husted lobbied for more subsidies. DeWine said he can't remember advocating for a specific length of time for the nuclear subsidies. Amid negotiations on House Bill 6, the nuclear plants' owners wanted Ohio's 4.5 million energy customers to foot the bill for 10 years, rather than six or seven. "I don't recall having any involvement in that issue," DeWine said Monday. "I just don't have any recollection." DeWine said he consistently advocated for policies that would keep Ohio's two nuclear plants, owned by FirstEnergy Solutions that later became Energy Harbor, running, and that included a $1 billion bailout. But the governor said he left the details to Ohio lawmakers. "How this was getting done, what the language was, was something that the Legislature was doing," DeWine said. "Everything that was in that bill, that I leave up to the Legislature. I made it very clear what my goal is, and my goal was to make sure that we continue to have nuclear power in the state of Ohio." Text messages between FirstEnergy executives indicate Husted, a former Ohio House speaker, did not leave the details to the Legislature. Instead, he advocated for more subsidies for the nuclear plants, according to records that the Ohio Consumers' Counsel filed to force FirstEnergy executives to answer questions about lobbying. “Just had long convo with JHusted just now," FirstEnergy Senior Vice President Michael Dowling texted CEO Chuck Jones on July 1, 2019. "All is well. JH is working on the 10 years. He’s afraid it’s going to end up being 8. Talk later." Husted told reporters Monday that he was "a long-time advocate" for saving the two nuclear power plants and so were a number of labor unions and Democrats. "I encouraged all through that process publicly, privately that the bill pass, but I wasn’t involved in the legislative process," Husted said. "I stand by that and those are the facts. I don’t care what anybody else says about it, that’s the truth." Put simply, advocating for nuclear energy was a policy position of the DeWine-Husted administration. And it's one the governor has "never changed." "There were a lot of people of goodwill" trying to save those nuclear plants, Husted said. "That’s separate from what FirstEnergy and Larry Householder are alleged to do. And we will find out whether they committed a crime when that trial occurs, but the two are not the same thing. The people who were working in good faith to do this didn’t know anything about all that. They were trying to do the right thing." DeWine also said he has "no idea" what FirstEnergy executives meant when they wrote that he and Husted performed "battlefield triage" to appoint the company's pick for top utility regulator.In early 2019, DeWine's pick to lead the Public Utilities Commission of Ohio, Sam Randazzo, faced pushback because of his past ties to FirstEnergy. The company later admitted it bribed Randazzo to help its bottom line and paid his companies $22 million between 2010 and early 2019, according to FirstEnergy's deferred prosecution agreement.Randazzo has not been charged with any crime and says he did nothing wrong. “That bullet grazed the temple," Dowling texted Jones about Randazzo's appointment process. Jones replied: “Forced (DeWine)/(Husted) to perform battlefield triage. It’s a rough game.”

Freeze of regulator’s HB 6 cases could further harm Ohio consumers - On Tuesday, a federal prosecutor asked to shut down four Ohio regulatory cases relating to Ohio’s House Bill 6 scandal for at least six months.If granted, the request by U.S. Attorney Kenneth Parker of the Southern District of Ohio will further block Ohioans’ ability to learn more about the alleged corruption behind the state’s 2019 nuclear and coal bailout law. FirstEnergy admitted last year that it paid nearly $60 million and bribed two Ohio public officials in connection with HB 6, including the former speaker of the Ohio House and a former head of the Public Utilities Commission of Ohio. Four piecemeal cases at the commission explore aspects of whether utility ratepayers footed the bill for that and other improper spending.“For two years the consumers’ counsel has been battling to obtain truth and justice at the PUCO for customers of scandal-ridden FirstEnergy,” said Ohio consumers’ counsel spokesperson Merrilee Embs. “Now the Ohio public is facing potentially more unwelcome delay in getting answers.”Parker’s letter to the Public Utilities Commission of Ohio resulted after FirstEnergycontacted the U.S. attorney’s office last month to object to the questioning of a former ethics and compliance officer of the company. The Aug. 16 request for stays noted the federal government’s deferred prosecution agreement with FirstEnergy and referred to the trials of former Ohio House Speaker Larry Householder and former lobbyist and Ohio Republican party leader Matt Borges, scheduled for January 2023.“The PUCO Proceedings involve issues related to the United States’ investigation, and the United States believes that continued discovery in the PUCO Proceedings may directly interfere with or impede the United States’ ongoing investigation,” Parker wrote.

House Republicans propose free loans, tax breaks for new gas pipelines - Two state House Republicans proposed legislation to give some natural gas pipeline developers state-funded tax breaks and interest-free loans, while allowing them to add a surcharge to ratepayers’ monthly bills. Reps. Jay Edwards, of Nelsonville, and Jon Cross, of Kenton, proposed House Bill 685 to aid communities that they say lose out on economic gains from natural gas development due to a lack of infrastructure. The bill would allow local governments to request a designation as an “EnergizeOhio zone.” The director of the Ohio Department of Development must grant it if he or she determines that “deficiencies in natural gas infrastructure” in the area harm economic growth. Pipeline developers siting projects within these zones can obtain interest-free loans from a new $20 million pot of money to purchase or lease land easements. The legislation would create another $50 million pot, funded by federal coronavirus relief dollars, for natural gas infrastructure projects. For companies that have already obtained regulatory approval to add surcharges to customer bills for infrastructure development, the legislation allows them to add another $1.50 if the project is in an EnergizeOhio zone. Lastly, it allows developers to receive a 75% tax abatement on new pipelines while speeding up their tax depreciation rate. Legislative analysts have not yet published a financial analysis of the bill’s costs. Sean O’Leary, a researcher with the Ohio River Valley Institute, said the bill is predicated on the idea that natural gas development in Ohio is necessarily a good thing for communities. The problem, he said, is it’s just not true. Seven Ohio counties — Belmont, Guernsey, Harrison, Jefferson, Noble, Monroe and Carroll — produce 95% of the natural gas in Ohio. Those counties’ gross domestic product, he said, has boomed since 2012, thanks to their natural gas output. Their population and employment levels, meanwhile, have remained stubbornly flat. “Just go to Belmont County, for Christ’s sake,” he said. “There’s just not an economic revival going on there.” Keith Conroy, a lobbyist representing the Ohio Gas Access Partnership, which announced support for the bill, declined an interview. The organization issued a news release to support the idea. “By lowering the cost of building energy infrastructure in the state, gas companies will be able to build to growing businesses in communities that need it and provide that energy at a competitive and affordable price,” it states. Cross, in a news release, made similar comments \

Salineville gas drillers want gov’t to let them do their jobs - (WKBN) – Workers with Encino Energy are about to put four new oil and gas wells online at a three-acre site in Salineville. Congressman Bill Johnson, R-6th District, was invited to take a tour Monday and hear what executives say they need to be successful.“They’re looking for Washington to get out of the way and let them do what they know how to do,” Johnson said. The site will soon begin the fracking process, something Johnson says Ohio needs more of.“If we could quadruple the amount of natural gas that we’re exporting right now, we would lower carbon emissions globally,” he said.But to do that, executives with both Encino and EQT Energy say they desperately need more processing and pipeline infrastructure to get all those resources to market.U.S. Senate Candidate Tim Ryan’s campaign says he has been a supporter of the oil and gas industry, giving a speech in the House just last week. However, Senate challenger J.D. Vance, who also took a tour of the well site, claims Ryan’s statements ring hollow.“I don’t care what Tim Ryan says, I care what he does, and what he does has been a failure. Not just for the energy industry in this state but everybody who depends on it, which is pretty much all of Ohio,” Vance said.Executives claim they will produce energy for the next 50 years here, with no government subsidies. They say they just need lawmakers to let them do their jobs.

Tiger Group announces liquidation sale of Buckeye Water Services - Waste Today Magazine -Tiger Group, Boston, is offering for immediate sale an entire fleet of late model rolling stock previously operated by Buckeye Water Services from its locations in Ohio and Pennsylvania. All assets are available for individual purchase in the company-closing liquidation, which includes construction equipment and more than 100 twenty- and thirty-yard roll-off boxes. A wide range of assets from Buckeye Water Services, a fracking services and waste hauling company, are available for immediate sale from Tiger Group. The sale features multiple tractors and trucks, including a 2018 Kenworth T880 10x4 dump truck and a 2013 Mack tractor with a 2018 Dragon tanker trailer "This sale represents a particularly strong opportunity for any company that provides water services to the hydraulic-fracturing sector or hauls construction waste, in part because the rolling stock on offer is so new and well-maintained," says Chad Farrell, managing director for Tiger Commercial & Industrial. "But other companies could benefit by acquiring former Buckeye assets of more general utility, like pickup, winch and service trucks, SUVs, a Caterpillar skid steer and a lowboy trailer by Entyre." With two locations, one near Columbus, the other near Pittsburgh, Buckeye Water Services provided specialized services to the oil-and-gas industry for more than 50 years. The company also had substantial waste-hauling operations, according to John Coelho, senior director of Tiger Commercial & Industrial. Available trucks and trailers include:

Children who live near fracking sites at birth face increased risk of leukemia: study - Pennsylvania children living near fracking sites at birth are two to three times more likely to be diagnosed with leukemia during early childhood than those who did not live near such facilities, a new study has found. The study, published in Environmental Health Perspectives on Wednesday, explored the connection between the development of cancer and proximity to such unconventional oil and gas development — also known as hydraulic fracturing, or “fracking.” Scientists have previously reported on potential threats to residents posed by fracking, such as air pollution from vehicle emissions and construction, as well as water contamination from the drilling process or wastewater spills, according to the authors. In addition, hundreds of chemicals — some with known or suspected cancer links — have reportedly been used in the water injection process that occurs during fracking, they added. Yet data on the association between fracking and childhood cancer remains scarce, the researchers observed.“Unconventional oil and gas development can both use and release chemicals that have been linked to cancer,” senior author Nicole Deziel, an associate professor of epidemiology at the Yale School of Public Health, said in a statement.As a result, Deziel continued, the possibility that children living near such sites are “exposed to these chemical carcinogens is a major public health concern.” Deziel and her team conducted a registry-based survey — an observational study that comes from patient registries — of 405 Pennsylvania children aged 2-7, who were diagnosed with acute lymphoblastic leukemia between 2009 and 2017, according to the study.The survey also included 2,080 control subjects matched on birth year.Acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL) is the most common form of childhood leukemia. Although long-term survival rates are high, patients may end up at higher risk of other health problems, developmental challenges and psychological issues, the researchers said. The authors probed the link between in-utero exposure and childhood leukemia diagnosis in two different exposure windows: a so-called primary window of three months preconception to one year prior to diagnosis and a “perinatal window” of preconception to birth. Ultimately, they found that children with at least one fracking well within 1.24 miles of their birth residence during the primary window had 1.98 times the odds of developing ALL in comparison to those with no such wells. Meanwhile, children with at least one fracking well within 2 kilometers of their birth residence during the perinatal window were 2.8 times more likely to develop ALL than their peers who had no wells nearby. These results demonstrate that exposure to fracking sites “may be an important risk factor for ALL, particularly for children exposed in utero,” first author Cassandra Clark, a postdoctoral associate at the Yale Cancer Center, said in a statement. Clark and her colleagues also determined that drinking water could play an important role in exposing children to oil and gas-related chemicals. Going forward, the researchers said they hope their findings will help inform public policy, including the regulation of “setback distances” — the required minimum distances between private residences and fracking wells. Since fracking operations located 1.24 miles or more from residences are associated with an increased risk of ALL, Clark stressed “that existing setback distances, which may be as little as 150 feet, are insufficiently protective of children’s health.”

IFO Report – PA Shale Production Down Second Quarter in a Row | Marcellus Drilling News - Yesterday the Pennsylvania Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) released its latest quarterly Natural Gas Production Report for April through June 2022 (full copy below). There were 133 new horizontal wells spud (drilled) in 2Q22, an increase of 13 wells (10.8%) compared to 2Q21. However, natural gas production volume was 1,836 billion cubic feet (Bcf) in 2Q22, a slight decrease (-0.9%) from 2Q21. It is the second quarterly decrease in production in a row. It appears that maybe PA has hit a plateau for natural gas production.

N.J. pipeline project could shake up FERC gas reviews - A proposed Northeast pipeline expansion could test the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission’s approach to scrutinizing demand for new natural gas infrastructure at a time when a slew of states are trying to use less of the fossil fuel. The Regional Energy Access Expansion (REAE) project is designed to support growing demand for natural gas in New Jersey, Pennsylvania and Maryland, according to developer Transcontinental Gas Pipe Line Co. LLC. New Jersey state officials, however, have told FERC that the Garden State doesn’t need more gas, in part because of the state’s climate policies and energy efficiency goals. The tension offers an unusual opportunity for the commission to consider a state’s climate targets before signing off on a pipeline project, according to some legal experts. At the same time, it exposes a key question for the commissioners as they contemplate new approaches to natural gas reviews: What evidence and perspectives should carry the most weight? “We finally get to see what FERC will do now that they have these data from the state showing that we don’t need more gas capacity,” said Jennifer Danis, a senior staff attorney at the Niskanen Center, a libertarian-leaning think tank that is representing the New Jersey Conservation Foundation opposing the project before the commission. In a potential first for a pipeline proceeding, the New Jersey Division of Rate Counsel and the New Jersey Board of Public Utilities (BPU) have presented FERC with an independent study on the state’s natural gas capacity. Conducted by the consulting firm London Economics International for the BPU last year, the analysis concluded that New Jersey was “well-positioned with available interstate supply beyond 2030,” contrary to gas utilities’ claims of potential shortfalls. The study was commissioned by the BPU last year as New Jersey seeks to transition off fossil fuels. The Garden State has a target of 100 percent clean energy by 2050 across the electric power, transportation and buildings sectors. “We don’t need additional pipelines going either into or bringing gas into New Jersey,” said Brian Lipman, director of the New Jersey Division of Rate Counsel, which represents consumers on utility issues. “We’re concerned about overbuilding gas pipelines, especially during this transition period where we’re not really sure what role natural gas will be playing within the next five to 10 years.”

Sen. Joe Manchin's maneuvers for Mountain Valley Pipeline not necessarily certain to succeed - When there’s a legal battle brewing over the Mountain Valley Pipeline, supporters would rather see it play out in the federal courthouse in Washington, D.C. — not one 100 miles to the south in Richmond. The U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia is largely deferential to pipeline approvals by the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, legal experts say. The appellate court upheld a FERC decision that greenlighted Mountain Valley in 2017, and more recently rejected challenges to the commission’s approval for an extension of the pipeline. In Richmond, where the 4th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals sits, the pipeline has not fared as well. The Fourth Circuit has stayed or struck down nearly a dozen permits issued to Mountain Valley by other federal agencies. Joe Manchin hopes to change that. The U.S. senator from West Virginia, a staunch supporter of Mountain Valley, struck an agreement with Democratic leaders earlier this month that would make Washington, D.C., the exclusive venue for future legal challenges.But should Manchin’s proposed legislation be passed, there’s no guarantee that it would ensure the completion of a litigation-battered and long-delayed natural gas pipeline that passes through the New River and Roanoke valleys. “It would be foolhardy to say that this is a fait accompli now,” said Cale Jaffe, a law professor and director of the Environmental Law and Community Engagement Clinic at the University of Virginia. First, there’s the unusual nature of Manchin’s venue proposal, which some lawyers likened to switching referees in the middle of a ballgame. “We seldom see a legislative intervention in litigation to change the court in which legal challenges are to be filed,” said Steve Emmert, a Virginia Beach lawyer who founded and is past chair of the appellate practice section of the Virginia Bar Association. Under current federal law, challenges to an approval by FERC — the lead agency that oversees interstate projects such as Mountain Valley — go to the D.C. Court of Appeals. Petitions that seek to overturn secondary permits issued by other government agencies wind up before the appellate court in the district where the project is located, which for Mountain Valley is the Fourth Circuit.Even if the proposal were to become law, some legal experts said Mountain Valley may not necessarily find a more sympathetic forum in the D.C. Court of Appeals, which in recent years has become more willing to scrutinize FERC decisions. “On the whole, I wouldn’t expect the change of venue to make that much of a difference,” Alison Gocke, an associate professor of law at UVa’s law school, wrote in an email. “These are both circuits that have a record of thoughtful decisions that try to faithfully apply the law, and I would imagine challenges to the MVP would be treated and reviewed similarly in both.”

Mountain Valley Pipeline opponents vow to keep up fight despite Manchin deal - In some Virginia circles, activists worry that the last-minute agreement to rescue a climate victory in the U.S. Senate amounts to a burdensome yoke for Appalachian communities united for years in fending off the $6.6 billion natural gas Mountain Valley Pipeline. Bill Muth, an organizer with Third Act Virginia, said he is thrilled by the “good parts” of the new law that are expected to reduce carbon emissions by 40% over the next eight years. “I loathe the side deal,” the Richmond resident said about negotiations reportedly reached between Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin of West Virginia and Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer of New York. “Third Act Virginia stands solidly with the frontline communities in Appalachia.” The organization is a relatively new chapter of Third Act, a national climate justice organization Bill McKibben launched last September so “experienced Americans” age 60 and up could commit what the late Georgia Congressman John Lewis of Georgia classified as “good trouble.” “If anything,” Muth continued, “the IRA clarifies that the climate crisis is a climate justice emergency.” While few are privy to the specifics of what was promised to Manchin, one reported provision that rankled advocates was an agreement to complete the now-on-hold Mountain Valley Pipeline, which would transport hydraulically fracked gas from wells in Manchin’s home state. It could even restrict which courts are allowed to rule on pipeline challenges. “Until those details were revealed, the MVP was on life support,” Muth said. “With the side deal, it seems all the pieces of significant resistance to the pipeline have fallen like dominoes.” He’s referring to other measures in the deal that potentially open the door for Congress to upend the bedrock environmental laws and curtail citizen challenges to fossil fuel projects. For example, that could lead to reforms such as accelerating Clean Water Act certifications and capping at two years the permitting timelines for major energy projects. “It’s even more chilling if Manchin can impose his will on the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission and other regulators,” Muth said. “That potential to gut environmental protection laws and take the legitimacy out of regulatory processes is one reason I’m committed to seeing that MVP doesn’t see the light of day.” Third Act remains committed to campaigns that pressure the financial industry to divest from fossil fuel infrastructure, said Muth, a retired Virginia Commonwealth University literacy professor. In June, he led dozens of protesters on a march from the James River to the downtown Richmond headquarters of Wells Fargo Bank. The bank is the No. 1 funder of the pipeline’s construction partners. “If regulatory and judicial is compromised even further, you can expect some Third Acters to be doing more direct actions on the MVP,” he said. “Decisions in Congress that have nothing to do with the frontline people on this pipeline route keep me grounded and assured that the right stand is to make sure it never gets built.”

Activists continue fight against Mountain Valley Pipeline - — Gazing up from a park in Southwest Virginia, a lush forest sits atop the surrounding mountain range. The view is interrupted by a strip of land dug out to make room for the Mountain Valley Pipeline. Dozens gathered this past weekend in a picnic shelter at Elliston’s Eastern Montgomery Park to protest the pipeline project in what was called a “Circle of Protection.” “We're here to celebrate each other and this incredible resistance community that's here,” said Deborah Kushner, of Staunton. “And we're also here to kind of gather our energies for the next round, which proves to be even more difficult.” The collection of activists, faith leaders, musicians and community members provided a space for those affected by the pipeline’s construction to voice their concerns and offer testimonies. The hourlong event was hosted by the Protect Our Water, Heritage, Rights Coalition, an interstate environmental coalition focused on preventing harm caused by the expansion of fossil fuel infrastructure — including the MVP. Initially proposed in 2014, the Mountain Valley Pipeline is an unfinished 303-mile natural gas pipeline that runs through six counties in Virginia and 11 in West Virginia. The pipeline is more than 90% complete, according to MVP’s website. However, it has been blocked by lawsuits from environmental justice organizations and protests from residents of the areas that have been affected throughout its construction. Russell Chisholm, co-chairperson of POWHR, called the Circle of Protection a “movement-building and solidarity effort,” as well as an opportunity to heal during stressful times for those fighting against the MVP construction. “Especially through the pandemic, a lot of people who work in the service industry lost their jobs or they lost wages or they got sick and they have no health care,” Chisholm said. “So, for us — for people who are very active organizing against this pipeline — it is a way to uplift some of those other struggles and uplift the people who are trying to address some of those struggles.” Chisholm lives in the nearby rural town of Newport and can’t reach his home without driving through the construction area around MVP — and its blast and incineration zones. These zones are where crews plan to detonate explosives to clear a path for construction. “There's two ways I can come and go from my house,” Chisholm said. “And they both go through that blast area.” Many attendees at the weekend event were senior citizens who run generational farms in the area. They said the MVP construction cuts right through their property, affecting their water and endangering local wildlife. Sixty-seven-year-old Kushner is one of the leaders of Third Act Virginia, part of a national organization that mobilizes people 60 and older to protect the environment and democracy for future generations. “It makes perfect sense for us to gear it up into motion,” she said while discussing why retirees might want to engage with the organization. “We've got the time. Many of us have the energy.” Though Kushner said she loved her job, after retiring five years ago, she felt that there was much more she could do for the planet. “It's truly the only kind of work that makes sense to me,” she said. “If we aren't working to protect each other, and nature, all this beautiful scenery around us and future generations, we're not just treading water; we're working to the detriment of our society.” Chisholm said members of Third Act provide support in the MVP fight, describing them as the “leading elders” of the movement: “I would say that within our movement, that elder leadership has always been there, within POWHR, and within the frontline directly impacted communities. I think Deborah really helped raise the visibility of the MVP fight long before this bright spotlight has been brought on us with the Inflation Reduction Act discussion and this other side deal.”

Manchin-linked company could reap millions from climate law - Tucked into the massive climate bill President Joe Biden signed into law this week is a one-sentence provision that could give a huge financial boost to a single energy company.The provision, found on page 687, provides $700 million in grants to mitigate the methane emissions of “marginal conventional wells.” These are low-producing oil and gas wells near the end of their useful economic life. They are a specialty of Alabama-based Diversified Energy Co. PLC.The company owns more oil and gas wells than any other U.S. company, including more than 10 percent of the estimated 600,000 marginal wells in the country. Much of Diversified Energy’s business model relies on acquiring dying wells, which often have high methane emissions, and milking them for profit years after other companies walk away.Because of the sheer number of marginal wells owned by Diversified Energy, the company is well positioned to take advantage of the one-sentence provision in the Inflation Reduction Act, observers say. The company can use the $700 million in federal grants to plug defunct wells and contain methane leaks.“By the mere fact that they’re so large by well count, they do stand to benefit from this,” said Adam Peltz, a senior attorney at the Environmental Defense Fund. Though unknown to the broader American public, Diversified Energy has spent years cultivating a relationship with Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.), the chief architect of the Inflation Reduction Act. It has opened a field office in West Virginia and contributed more money to Manchin than any other candidate in this election cycle. The company also pays Larry Puccio, Manchin’s close friend and former chief of staff, to lobby on the state and federal level. Company officials had dinner with Manchin a few days before the Senate approved the Inflation Reduction Act, the Wall Street Journal reported.Reached over the phone, Puccio said, “I’m not an elected official, and I don’t do interviews.” Diversified claims in financial reports that it owns 67,000 oil and gas wells, both conventional and unconventional. That’s far more wells than Exxon Mobil Corp., the second-biggest well holder, which owns about 37,000.Diversified aims to get about 50 years of use out of each well. That approach means wells are kept unplugged — and potentially releasing climate-damaging methane — for years or even decades after they might otherwise be sealed,Bloomberg has reported.All oil and gas wells eventually become marginal at some point. It’s their journey that has the biggest implications for climate and pollution, Peltz said. The largest energy companies generally operate wells only as long as they are highly productive, he said. As the profit margins of a well declines, the larger companies — which have higher overhead costs — look to offload it.Smaller companies with lower operating costs buy those wells and keep them going for years, often selling them down a chain of increasingly financially troubled companies. Some of those smaller companies eventually go bankrupt, leaving the taxpayer with the cost of plugging the well.Abandoned wells not only leak methane that warms the planet — they also pollute the air and groundwater, Peltz said.“Clearly, we’ve made terrible mistakes in the past, and that’s why we are where we are with all these different wells,” he said. “The real shame is if we don’t prevent today’s currently active wells from becoming orphans in the future and Diversified is a test case of that.”

Permitting deal: Pipeline boom or ‘propaganda exercise?’ - A proposal backed by the White House and Democratic leaders in Congress to speed up federal permitting is targeting an industry that many environmentalists dislike: pipelines.But will the plan really do much to boost pipelines, and is the industry backing it?For some companies, hope remains that permitting changes could be passed as part of a stopgap spending bill next month, as promised by Democratic leaders. But others are sticking to their talking points and expressing little enthusiasm as they wait for signs of whether the plan — which has not been formally introduced as legislation — gets the bipartisan support it would require. Some conservatives, meanwhile, are pushing back on the idea that the proposed permitting changes would work. “The whole thing looks like what it is: a propaganda exercise driven by people who have never permitted a project and, therefore, don’t understand how the process actually works,” longtime GOP energy lobbyist Mike McKenna said.Senate Energy and Natural Resources Chair Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.), Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.), House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) and President Joe Biden agreed to pursue permitting reform legislation in exchange for Manchin’s vote on the Inflation Reduction Act — the climate, tax and health care bill that Biden signed into law this week.Supporters of the deal have said that changes are needed to speed up energy projects. Manchin has called National Environmental Policy Act rules “burdensome,” saying in a statement this month that “that’s why I fought so hard to secure a commitment on bipartisan permitting reform, which is the only way we’re going to actually fix this problem.”The proposal floated by Manchin includes well-known concepts such as two-year limits on environmental reviews under NEPA, revisions to Clean Water Act approvals and limits on judicial review. It also includes the creation of a new priority list of projects to include those for fossil fuels, nuclear energy, carbon capture and renewables (E&E Daily, Aug. 2).Manchin and Schumer have said they’re committed to getting a permitting measure done during this fiscal year, which ends Sept. 30. But there are significant obstacles, including opposition from some progressive lawmakers. Passage in the Senate would require 60 votes, and many Republicans are not committing to support the proposal, which they see as linked to the climate and energy provisions of the reconciliation bill that passed the Senate on a party line vote (Greenwire, Aug. 5). Lobbyists say congressional leaders have committed to a vote on the changes, not a commitment to round up votes.

U.S. natural gas futures down 1% on rising output, lower demand | BOE Report - U.S. natural gas futures fell about 1% on Monday on rising supplies and forecasts for cooler weather and lower air conditioning demand over the next two weeks than previously expected. Also weighing on gas prices was a 5% drop in oil futures earlier in the day and the ongoing outage at the Freeport liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plant in Texas, which has left more gas in the United States for utilities to inject into stockpiles for next winter. Freeport LNG, the second-biggest U.S. LNG export plant, was consuming about 2 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) of gas before it was shut on June 8. Freeport expects the plant to return to at least partial service in early October. Front-month gas futures fell 4.0 cents, or 0.5%, to settle at $8.728 per million British thermal units (mmBtu). So far this year, the gas front-month was up about 134% as higher prices in Europe and Asia keep demand for U.S. LNG exports strong. Global gas prices have soared this year following supply disruptions linked to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on Feb. 24. Gas was trading around $68 per mmBtu in Europe, a five-month high, and $45 in Asia. Data provider Refinitiv said average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states has risen to 97.6 bcfd so far in August from a record 96.7 bcfd in July. With warmer weather expected, Refinitiv projected average U.S. gas demand, including exports, would rise from 96.3 bcfd this week to 96.9 bcfd next week. Those forecasts were lower than Refinitiv’s outlook on Friday. The average amount of gas flowing to U.S. LNG export plants has risen to 11.0 bcfd so far in August from 10.9 bcfd in July. That compares with a monthly record of 12.9 bcfd in March. The seven big U.S. export plants can turn about 13.8 bcfd of gas into LNG. The reduction in U.S. exports from Freeport is a problem for Europe, where most U.S. LNG has gone this year as countries there wean themselves off Russian energy. Russia, the world’s second-biggest gas producer, has provided about a third of Europe’s gas in recent years, totaling about 18.3 bcfd in 2021. The European Union wants to cut Russian gas imports by two-thirds by the end of 2022 and refill stockpiles to 80% of capacity by Nov. 1 and 90% by Nov. 1 each year beginning in 2023. Gas stockpiles in northwest Europe – Belgium, France, Germany and the Netherlands – were about 3% below their five-year (2017-2021) average for this time of year, according to Refinitiv. Storage was currently at about 71% of capacity. That is much healthier than U.S. gas inventories, which were about 12% below their five-year norm.

Bulls Parade Past $9 as Production Dips Again; Spot Gas Surges on Lingering Heat - After a solid recovery throughout Monday’s session, natural gas futures extended their streak Tuesday as maintenance activities took another toll on production. The September Nymex gas futures contract soared 60.1 cents day/day to settle at $9.329/MMBtu. October futures climbed 59.9 cents to $9.311. Spot gas prices also surged as power burns remain elevated despite cooler weather. NGI’s Spot Gas National Avg. shot up 58.5 cents to $8.935. With weather set to moderate from the record heat seen across much of the country in June and July, bulls wasted no time in pouncing on the latest production data that showed a roughly 1.8 Bcf day/day decline. Some technical momentum carried the September Nymex contract up more than 50 cents as Tuesday’s session got underway, with bulls maintaining control throughout the day. Wood Mackenzie said the production declines were concentrated in areas where there are maintenance or operational issues underway, though revisions are expected in Wednesday’s sample data. Overall Northeast production was down around 840 MMcf/d, according to the consultancy. About 310 MMcf/d of lost output was seen in Southwest Pennsylvania (SWPA), while around 165 MMcf/d was in Northeast Pennsylvania (NEPA). West Virginia recorded a roughly 175 MMcf/d drop, and Ohio saw about a decline of about 190 MMcf/d. In SEPA, production was down along most pipes in the area, but the most significant drops were along Columbia Gas Transmission (TCO) and Texas Eastern Transmission, according to Wood Mackenzie. However, there were no posted maintenance events along those systems, the firm said. NEPA production was down along Tennessee Gas Pipeline, where the force majeure along the 300 Line remains in place restricting operational capacity, according to Wood Mackenzie. Flows were lower on several pipelines in Ohio. Production also dropped about 285 MMcf/d in the Rockies, while Texas output was down about 235 MMcf/d with two maintenance events on Natural Gas Pipeline Co. of America. Both are set to end next week. Transcontinental Gas Pipe Line Co.’s (Transco) storage system increased by a modest 0.32 Bcf based on Monday’s data. This is 0.5 Bcf less than the prior week, according to Mobius. Southern Star did not report, but typically follows a similar week/week path as Transco, Mobius said. The Eastern Gas system posted an inventory gain of 4 Bcf, or half of the prior week’s reported build. TCO storage, also in the Northeast, did not report last week’s inventory change, but Monday’s report of 156 Bcf in underground storage implies a build of 5 Bcf or less. “These data points, and an assumed change for Southern Star, collectively imply a week-over-week build of well under 10 Bcf,” Mobius analyst Zane Curry said. The lowest total build for these four facilities so far this summer is 10.21 Bcf, recorded for the week ending July 21. That week, the total inventory change as reported by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) was 15 Bcf.

US natgas up 3% to 14-yr high on output drop, soaring global prices (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures climbed about 3% to a fresh 14-year high on Wednesday on a drop in daily output, hotter than normal weather on the West Coast and in Texas, and near record global prices. That U.S. price increase came despite forecasts for less hot weather and lower air conditioning demand across much of the country over the next two weeks than previously expected. Also preventing U.S. prices from spiking higher, traders noted the ongoing outage at the Freeport liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plant in Texas, which has left more gas in the United States for utilities to inject into stockpiles for next winter. Front-month gas futures NGc1 rose 28 cents, or 3.0%, to $9.609 per million British thermal units (mmBtu) at 8:43 a.m. EDT (1243 GMT), putting the contract on track for its highest close since July 2008. That kept the front-month in technically overbought territory with a relative strength index (RSI) above 70 for a second day in a row. The jump in gas prices coupled with recent declines in crude futures have cut oil's premium over gas to its lowest since April 2020 when crude briefly turned negative. Over the last several years that premium has prompted U.S. energy firms to focus most of their drilling activity on finding more oil instead of gas because crude was by far the more valuable commodity. The oil-to-gas ratio, or level at which oil trades compared with gas, dropped to 9-to-1 on Wednesday. So far in 2022, crude has traded about 17 times over gas. That compares with crude's average premium over gas of 19 times in 2021 and a five-year average (2017-2021) of 20 times. On an energy equivalent basis, oil should trade only six times over gas. In the spot market, power prices for Wednesday in Southern California and in Washington State climbed to their highest since September 2021 as homes and businesses cranked up their air conditioners to escape a heat wave. It's also hot in Texas where power prices at the ERCOT North hub, which includes Dallas, jumped to their highest since June 2021. So far this year, the gas front-month was up about 157% as higher prices in Europe and Asia keep demand for U.S. LNG exports strong. Global gas prices have soared this year following supply disruptions linked to Russia's invasion of Ukraine on Feb. 24. Gas was trading near a record $68 per mmBtu in Europe and at an all-time high of $57 in Asia.

US gas storage levels increase by lower-than-expected 18 Bcf on week: EIA - US natural gas working stocks rose by just 18 Bcf during the week ended Aug. 12, well below market expectations, but the build was insufficient to keep the momentum going for US gas futures. Storage inventories rose to 2.519 Tcf for the week ended Aug. 12, the US Energy Information Administration reported on Aug. 18. The build was far less than an S&P Global Commodity Insights' survey of analysts that called for a 34 Bcf build and was outside the survey's range of 20-52 Bcf. The weekly injection rate was lower than the 46 Bcf build reported during the corresponding week in 2021, and was lower than the five-year average build of 47 Bcf, according to EIA data. As a result, stocks were 367 Bcf, or 12.7%, below the five-year average of 2.886 Tcf, and were 296 Bcf, or 10.5%, lower than year-ago stock levels. The NYMEX Henry Hub September contract soared to trade higher than $9.50/MMBtu in the hour after the weekly storage report published, which would have set a fresh 14-year record high for the prompt-month contract if it held, but the initial burst of bullish sentiment faded quickly. By 12:30 pm ET, the prompt-month contract had fallen to trade around $8.96/MMBtu, down nearly 30 cents from its prior-day settlement. The Aug. 18 price weakness interrupted a strong rally for US gas futures, with the September through January contracts all trading above $9/MMBtu since Aug. 16. The prompt-month reached its highest daily settlement price since 2008 on Aug. 16 after European gas prices reached all-time highs on Aug. 15, signaling global market tightness for gas. The Aug. 18 gas storage report revealed that several regions saw net withdrawals for the week ended Aug. 12, as above-normal gas-fired power demand continued to tighten supply-demand balances. The US South-Central region saw an 8 Bcf net pull from storage for the week ended Aug. 12, driven entirely by a net withdrawal from salt cavern storage facilities. Storage levels in South-Central salt caverns fell to 26.9% below the five-year average, the largest deficit of any region or sub-region. Pacific storage also contracted during the week ended Aug. 12, with the EIA reporting a net withdrawal of 4 Bcf. A forecast by S&P Global's supply and demand model called for a much larger injection of 55 Bcf for the week ending Aug. 19. A net build of this size would be larger than both the five-year average build of 46 Bcf and the 32 Bcf build observed during the corresponding week in 2021. Cooler temperatures across the Northeast and Midwest for the week in progress support the higher storage expectations. Data from Platts Analytics showed that Northeast gas-fired power demand has averaged 9 Bcf/d for Aug. 13-18, down from 12.3 Bcf/d for the week ended Aug. 12. Similarly, Midwest gas demand has averaged 5.2 Bcf/d for Aug. 13-18, down from 6.4 Bcf/d for the previous seven days. .

U.S. natgas up 2% to a 14-year high on record global prices (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures rose about 2% to a 14-year high on Friday on record global gas prices, concerns about Russian gas export to Europe and forecasts for hotter U.S. weather that will boost air conditioning demand through early September. That price increase came despite record output and the ongoing outage at the Freeport liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plant in Texas, which has left more gas in the United States for utilities to inject into stockpiles for next winter. Front-month gas futures rose 14.8 cents, or 1.6%, to settle at $9.336 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), their highest close since August 2008. For the week, the front-month was up about 6% after gaining 9% last week. With hot weather moving into the U.S. Northeast, spot gas prices for Friday at the Dominion South hub in Pennsylvania rose to their highest since February 2014 for a second day in a row. In Alberta, producers were having a tough time getting gas out of the province due to a lack of pipeline capacity, maintenance on existing pipes and rising production. Prices for Friday at the AECO hub NG-ASH-ALB-SNL in Alberta plunged 73% to just 74 cents per mmBtu, their lowest since September 2019. So far this year, gas futures are up about 150% as higher prices in Europe and Asia keep demand for U.S. LNG exports strong. Global gas prices have soared due to supply disruptions and sanctions linked to Russia's invasion of Ukraine on Feb. 24. Global gas prices were on track to close near record levels around $75 per mmBtu in Europe and $57 in Asia. Russian gas exports via the three main lines into Germany - Nord Stream 1 (Russia-Germany), Yamal (Russia-Belarus-Poland-Germany) and the Russia-Ukraine-Slovakia-Czech Republic-Germany route - held near 2.5 bcfd so far in August, down from an average of 2.8 bcfd in July and 10.4 bcfd in August 2021. Russian energy company Gazprom PAO said it will halt gas supplies to Europe for three days at the end of the month for unscheduled maintenance on Nord Stream 1.

Market Eyes Risk of Winter Supply Squeeze as Natural Gas Forwards Rally -- Natural gas forwards rallied from coast to coast during the Aug. 11-17 trading period as mounting storage adequacy concerns overshadowed a mild late-summer forecast, according to NGI’s Forward Look data. Fixed prices for September delivery at benchmark Henry Hub surged $1.042 during the period to $9.245/MMBtu, setting the pace for hefty markups across the Lower 48. Still, with the focus shifting away from summer cooling demand as the shoulder season approaches, double-digit regional basis discounts were the norm for the period. Southeast basis premiums notably faded week/week, with Transco Zone 4 September basis finishing at plus-49.6 cents, a 25.0-cent swing lower week/week. Florida Gas Zone 3 basis tumbled 35.7 cents to plus-65.4 cents. The Aug. 11-17 trading period saw Nymex futures advance more than $1 week/week, including single-day prompt-month rallies of 67.2 cents on Aug. 11 and 60.1 cents on Tuesday (Aug. 16). The gains have occurred despite a deteriorating weather-driven demand outlook, suggesting the market’s focus has shifted to pricing in supply risks for the upcoming winter, according to analysts. The bullish case for the months ahead centers around a thin domestic inventory margin, set against a backdrop of overseas energy scarcity amid Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Gains for Henry Hub seem to suggest domestic prices trading “sympathetically” to the rallying Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF) in Europe, Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. (TPH) analysts said in a recent note. TTF “has continued to catch a bid to eye-watering levels despite having closed the gap to the five-year average on inventories,” the TPH analysts said. The analysts said they see “limited risk on our base case to the U.S. running out of storage this winter on normal weather.” However, “a higher TTF price presents a higher potential ceiling to Henry Hub should Old Man Winter show up in the Lower 48.” Where the market goes from here will depend in part on the timing of the 2 Bcf/d Freeport LNG terminal’s return to service, and also on domestic production trends, according to the TPH analysts. But a seemingly tame temperature outlook for the waning days of summer did not prevent what NatGasWeather characterized as “pure chaos” following a “quite bullish” storage report from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) Thursday. An 18 Bcf injection into U.S. storage for the week ended Aug. 12 fell notably shy of pre-report expectations, and the initial market reaction sent prices on the September contract as high as $9.663. However, a volatile session saw the front month dip back below $9.00 midday before eventually going on to settle a modest 5.6 cents lower at $9.188. “It seemed this was the data point that would finally take us to $10.00, but it was not to be, as the rally quickly met mass selling pressure yet again, just as has been the case every time we have moved over the $9.50 level,” NatGasWeather observed. “This marked the fourth week in a row that the directional miss of the EIA numbers was faded by the market, though this one, in our view, is the most surprising.” The supply/demand balance implied by the latest EIA print is “wicked tight” and would put the market on pace for an end-of-season storage level below 3.3 Tcf, according to the firm. .

Amid Lackluster Production and 'Robust, Resilient' Demand, $13 Natural Gas Said Possible - A confluence of entrenched domestic demand, mounting calls for U.S. exports of LNG and modest production growth – all factors forecast to endure – propelled natural gas futures above $9.00/MMBtu in August and could keep upward pressure on prices for years. Such was the assessment of analysts who spoke Tuesday at the LDC Gas Forum Rockies & West in Denver. Prices have more than doubled this year and recently approached the highest levels since 2008. ConocoPhillips’ Matthew Henderson, senior market analyst, said natural gas prices would inevitably ebb and flow with seasons and in response to major news developments. On the whole, though, the bull case is firmly intact given elevated cooling demand in an era of persistently hot summers, including most recently the third hottest July on record last month. At the same time, many utilities made long-term commitments to natural gas as a principal energy source, minimizing their alternatives. Now, as the United States marches on with coal plant retirements and an emphasis on cleaner energy, it is increasingly difficult to switch from gas to coal when prices for the former spike, as was the practice in the past, Henderson said. This effectively cements reliance on natural gas and adds a fixed demand element to the market. What’s more, he said, large-cap public exploration and production (E&P) companies are under pressure from Wall Street to pay down debt and return excess capital to investors – rather than ramp up output to capitalize on high prices. As such, production growth is modest this year and likely to remain so in coming years, according to Henderson, making it difficult for supply to keep pace with demand. E&Ps are increasing activity in the Permian Basin and in the Haynesville Shale, though at measured paces, Henderson said. Production in the Northeast, concentrated in the Marcellus and Utica shales, meanwhile, has tapered off to maintenance levels, he said, largely because of pipeline constraints. In aggregate, production is only ticking up at a time when more U.S. supplies are needed to meet both domestic demand and a growing global liquefied natural gas market. Energy Analytics consultant Laird Dyer agreed. He noted that demand for LNG, already strong heading into 2022 amid weak supply levels in Europe and Asia, was amplified this year following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. European countries ratcheted up their calls for LNG as they moved to wean themselves off Russian gas in protest of the war. Dyer expects prompt-month natural gas futures to average $8 next year, essentially extending the lofty prices reached this year. That outlook is based on average weather during the coming winter. If conditions prove particularly cold over prolonged periods, or if there are weather-induced shocks to production such as late-season hurricanes or widespread winter freeze-offs, supply/demand imbalance could worsen substantially. Prices, Dyer said, may climb to $13 or higher. “We could see some pretty horrific numbers,” he told the audience in Denver. In fact, he added, had a fire not forced the Freeport LNG export facility offline in June, preserving about 2 Bcf/d for domestic consumption this summer, prices could have surged into the double-digits by now. Freeport is expected to reopen this fall and substantially more LNG capacity is expected to come online in 2024 to serve the global market. Still, Dyer said it was not clear that production could keep up. Demand is “robust, resilient and price inelastic,” Dyer said, while production is relatively lackluster.

 US GOM Methane Emissions Much Higher Than Those In Permian - A new study has suggested that offshore oil and gas production in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico has substantially higher methane emissions than those from typical onshore production. Non-profit organization Carbon Mapper released the findings of airborne observations in the spring and fall of 2021 of 151 shallow water offshore oil and gas platforms in U.S. state and federal waters in the Gulf of Mexico. Researchers found that the methane loss rate from these shallow water sources is significantly higher than typical onshore production and disproportionally contributes to climate change – providing a potential focus for sustained monitoring and mitigation efforts. Specifically, the team calculated a methane loss rate of 23-66 percent from shallow offshore Gulf of Mexico operations compared to 3.3-3.7 percent reported by other studies of operations in the Permian basin. The team plans to conduct additional surveys of the broader population of platforms in the Gulf and selected international offshore production areas with aircraft and satellites to assess overall methane loss rates. Carbon Mapper collaborated on the research with the University of Arizona, NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory, the University of Michigan, and Arizona State University. It is the first systematic application of a remote emissions-sensing technology that can detect methane emissions over water, and attribute methane emissions to specific infrastructure. Offshore oil and natural gas platforms are responsible for about 30 percent of global oil and gas production. Despite the large share, few studies have directly measured atmospheric methane emanating from these platforms due to their remote location compared to onshore production, and the technological challenges of observing methane emissions over water. These factors present unique challenges for oil and gas leak detection and repair programs and may undermine society’s ability to meet methane reduction targets such as the Global Methane Pledge. “Bottom-up estimates and gaps in observational data can result in significant undercounting of emissions from offshore oil and gas infrastructure,” said Alana Ayasse, Research Scientist with Carbon Mapper, and the University of Arizona. “This study underscores the importance of increased transparency and sustained remote monitoring in offshore oil- and gas-producing regions to inform mitigation action.” Many observed shallow-water offshore platforms and surrounding infrastructure exhibited super-emitter activity. Of the 151 targeted platforms and surrounding areas surveyed between the spring and fall, 62 pieces of infrastructure had an observable methane plume – over 10 kg/hr. According to Carbon Mapper, emissions from observed offshore sources were highly persistent. The offshore sources measured in this study were over twice as persistent – meaning how frequently emissions were detected at a given location – as methane emissions from onshore oil and gas infrastructure reported by other studies. Researchers revisited many of these platforms multiple times in the spring and fall of 2021 which provided an initial characterization of source persistence, and further observations will evaluate whether there is a long-term trend. Also, specific types of equipment were responsible for a disproportionate number of emissions. Using high-resolution imaging, the researcher attributed observed emissions primarily to tanks, satellite wells, pipelines, and vent booms that were visually identifiable – showing that a small number of observable emissions sources were responsible for most of the methane released into the atmosphere. The infrastructure observed was distributed evenly across state and federal waters, allowing the team to sample different regulatory structures.

LNG Exporter Downplays Emissions to Justify Expansion - DeSmogBlog --A major exporter of U.S. liquefied natural gas is “seeking to greenwash” its operations in order to portray gas exports as a climate solution and clear the way for further expansion, according to a new report.Global demand for gas has soared in the wake of Russia’s war in Ukraine, sparking a scramble by U.S. gas exporters to increase export volumes, with the backing of the Biden administration. But building out LNG infrastructure to address an energy crisis is at odds with governments simultaneously trying to slash emissions to address the climate emergency.In recent months, Cheniere Energy, the largest LNG exporter in the United States, has begun providing emissions data, which it calls “carbon emissions tags,” or CE tags, for its gas. The tags quantify the greenhouse gas emissions of a given LNG cargo, with the aim of easing buyers’ concerns. The CE tags include emissions from where the gas is drilled upstream, all the way down to the point of export on the coast. The logic is to offer transparency to buyers overseas by disclosing the emissions of each shipment, which would help to clean up the supply chain over time.But a new report from Oil Change International and Greenpeace USA says the program is riddled with flaws and is broadly aimed at portraying LNG as a clean fuel, rather than actually cleaning up the supply chain, at a time when gas developers are hoping to take advantage of the war in Ukraine to expand operations.“The industry realizes they have a problem with methane emissions,” Tim Donaghy, a senior research specialist for Greenpeace USA and a coauthor of the report, told DeSmog. He pointed to the 2020 decision by French energy company Engie to back out of a U.S. LNG deal over concerns about runaway methane emissions in American fracking fields. Donaghy said that event hammered home the message to the U.S. gas industry “that they do have to clean up their act, or at least be seen as making progress.”Cheniere has responded to growing climate concerns by pointing to a study that it funded that shows that emissions from its Sabine Pass facility in Louisiana could displace electricity generated by coal in China, cutting emissions intensity by 47 to 57 percent. Cheniere then introduced CE tags to quantify the emissions of its LNG cargoes.But Cheniere’s CE tags downplay the industry’s environmental impact, Donaghy said. They rely on EPAcalculations that have been shown to underestimate methane releases by shale drillers. The general rule of thumb is that if gas drillers are leaking more than 3.2 to 3.4 percent of the gas they produce, then gas is worse for the climate than coal. The EPA assumes a national methane leakage rate of about 1.4 percent. But it uses models, rather than actual measurements.Studies have shown that the EPA has consistently undercounted methane pollution from oil and gas operations. The Permian basin in West Texas and New Mexico is particularly dirty — a recent study pegged methane leaks at 9.4 percent, six times worse than EPA estimates, and offered evidence that Permian gas is vastly worse for the climate than coal.

Will Biden's climate bill really reduce LNG emissions? - The climate bill that President Joe Biden is expected to sign into law today will increase pressure on U.S. liquefied natural gas exporters to reduce methane emissions. But the extent of those reductions is an open question, thanks to a series of exemptions in the bill that could allow LNG facilities to skirt a new fee on methane leaks. The stakes for the U.S. LNG industry are enormous. The new fee, coupled with proposed EPA methane regulations, could help the industry counteract Europe’s new tax on carbon-intensive goods and secure a long-term market for the fuel. At the same time, it also could add new costs to U.S. natural gas supplies, potentially making exports more expensive. Either way, the industry must first figure out how the new fee will be implemented. Basic questions surrounding issues such as emissions reporting need to be resolved before the impact of the fee can be truly assessed, analysts said. Answering those questions will fall to EPA as it finalizes new methane regulations for oil and gas facilities. “I think the challenge is that no one knows what it means and where they stand right now,” said Arvind Ravikumar, a professor at the University of Texas, Austin, who studies methane emissions from oil and gas operations. The bill’s passage comes amid a U.S. LNG boom. The United States overtook Qatar as the world’s top LNG exporter during the first half of 2022, boosted by a series of terminal expansions and new facilities. The spike in American LNG shipments has been well timed for Europe, which is scrambling to find alternatives to Russian imports following Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine. Europe bought nearly two-thirds of U.S. LNG cargos during the first five months of the year, according to the Energy Information Administration. Fear of a fuel shortage this winter has pushed European concerns over methane emissions into the background. But U.S. LNG exports face long-term skepticism over the environmental profile of their fuel. In 2020, a French utility canceled a multibillion LNG deal over worries about flaring and leaky gas field equipment. Europe will institute a new carbon border adjustment beginning next year. The fee on carbon intense imports does not currently include LNG, but it is expected to expand over time to encompass oil and gas imports. The European Union currently is negotiating a proposal that would require domestic oil, gas and coal facilities to measure and report their methane emissions, detect and repair methane leaks and ban natural gas venting and flaring — a routine practice at oil wells that releases methane. It also aims to reduce emissions from imported gas by requiring importers to report on how the countries and companies where they source the fuel are working to measure and reduce emissions from their operations. Analysts said they don’t expect new regulations on both sides of the Atlantic Ocean to temper trade volumes between the United States and the European Union but rather help in getting methane leaks better controlled. “Between the fees and the closing of export markets for companies with higher leak rates, there would be a huge incentive for companies to achieve low leak rates,”

 Freeport LNG Withdraws Force Majeure - Freeport LNG has withdrawn the force majeure that was declared for an explosion at the site after it was found that the definition would not hold true for the incident, Rystad Energy analyst Lu Ming Pang revealed in a market note sent to Rigzone. “Force majeure is typically declared only when production is impacted by unforeseeable circumstances outside of the producer’s control,” Pang said in the note. “Without force majeure, Freeport LNG may be required to compensate offtakers for their replacement cargoes, based on a case-by-case scenario,” Pang added. In the note, Pang also highlighted that Freeport LNG said this week that it aims for a partial restart in October, before returning to full capacity by the end of the year. “This is after arriving at an agreement with U.S. regulators last week, pending the execution of corrective measures on site,” Pang said. “The current recovery timeline closely follows the plan announced in June,” Pang added in the note. In its latest short term energy outlook (STEO), the U.S. Energy Information Administration outlined that average Henry Hub natural gas prices fell over the last two months primarily because of additional supply in the domestic market following the shutdown of the Freeport LNG export terminal on June 8. The STEO noted, however, that prices increased by almost 50 percent, from $5.73 per MMBtu on July 1 to $8.37 per MMBtu on July 29, because of continued high demand for natural gas from the electric power sector. “We expect the Henry Hub price to average $7.54 per MMBtu in the second half of 2022 and then fall to an average of $5.10 per MMBtu in 2023 amid rising natural gas production,” the EIA stated in the August STEO. In July, the Henry Hub spot price averaged $7.28 per MMBtu, down from $7.70 per MMBtu in June and $8.14 per MMBtu in May, the STEO highlighted.

Coast Guard reports 420-gallon oil spill in Texas waters - The U.S. Coast Guard is containing a reported oil spill of around 420 gallons in Tabbs Bay near Houston, according to a news releaseon Tuesday, August 17. More than 2,000 feet of hard boom and sorbent boom have been placed around the affected areas to contain and recover oil products.According to the release, Coast Guard Sector Houston-Galveston watchstanders received a report of the oil spill around 10:30 a.m. on Monday, August 16. Tabbs Bay is east of Houston near Baytown and La Porte. Pollution responders are overseeing a timely cleanup of the oil to mitigate environmental impacts through its coordination with partner agencies and the continued assessment of shorelines and waterways.There have been no reports of impact on wildlife at this time. The cause of the pollution has been identified and the source is secure. Officials did not reveal the cause of the pollution. Tabbs Bay has experienced oil spills before. In February 2020, an estimated 630 gallons of crude oil discharged from an out-of-service wellhead, according to a Houston station. At that time, 840 gallons of oily water were collected. Officials used vacuum trucks and a floating drum skimmer to collect and recover the crude oil and prevent impact on the environment and Houston Ship Channel.For the most recent spill, the Coast Guard and Texas General Land Office are investigating.

U.S. crude oil production down last week (Xinhua) -- U.S. crude oil production averaged 12.1 million barrels per day (b/d) during the week ending Aug. 12, down by 100,000 b/d from the previous week, U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said Wednesday. The figure rose by 700,000 b/d over this time last year, according to the EIA. More than 80 percent of the U.S. crude oil production growth comes from the country's Lower 48 states, which does not include production from Alaska and the Federal Offshore Gulf of Mexico, said the EIA report. The United States has been a major oil producer in the past years with the help of its shale oil production growth. ■

Oil output in Permian to rise to record high in September -EIA - Oil output in the Permian in Texas and New Mexico, the biggest U.S. shale oil basin, is due to rise 79,000 barrels per day (bpd) to a record 5.408 million bpd in September, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said in its productivity report on Monday. Total output in the major U.S. shale oil basins will rise 141,000 bpd to 9.049 million bpd in September, the highest since March 2020, the statistical arm of the Department of Energy projected. In the Bakken in North Dakota and Montana, the EIA forecast oil output will rise 21,000 bpd to 1.157 million bpd in September, the most since November 2021. In the Eagle Ford in South Texas, output will rise 26,000 bpd to 1.230 million bpd in September, its highest since April 2020. Total natural gas output in the big shale basins will increase 0.673 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) to a record 93.835 bcfd in September, the EIA forecast. In the biggest shale gas basin in Appalachia, Pennsylvania, Ohio and West Virginia, output will rise to 35.486 bcfd in September, the highest since hitting a record near 36.0 bcfd in December 2021. Gas output in the Permian and the Haynesville in Texas, Louisiana and Arkansas will also rise to record highs of 20.584 bcfd and 15.835 bcfd in September, respectively.

Climate change? Inflation Reduction Act boosts US oil and gas industry — The U.S. oil industry hit a legal roadblock in January when a judge struck down a $192 million oil and natural gas lease sale in the Gulf of Mexico over future global warming emissions from burning the fuels.It came at a pivotal time for Chevron, Exxon and other industry players: The Biden administration had curtailed opportunities for new offshore drilling, while raising climate change concerns. The industry's setback was short-lived, however. The climate measure President Joe Biden signed Tuesday bypasses the administration's concerns about emissions and guarantees new drilling opportunities in the Gulf of Mexico and Alaska. The legislation was crafted to secure backing from a top recipient of oil and gas donations, Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin, and was shaped in part by industry lobbyists. While the Inflation Reduction Act concentrates on clean energy incentives that could drastically reduce overall U.S. emissions, it also buoys oil and gas interests by mandating leasing of vast areas of public lands and off the nation's coasts. And it locks renewables and fossil fuels together: If the Biden administration wants solar and wind on public lands, it must offer new oil and gas leases first.As a result, U.S. oil and gas production and emissions from burning fuels could keep growing, according to some industry analysts and climate experts. With domestic demand sliding, that means more fossil fuels exported to growing foreign markets, including from the Gulf where pollution from oil and gas activity plagues many poor and minority communities.To the industry, the new law signals Democrats are willing to work with them and abandon the notion fossil fuels could soon be rendered obsolete, said Andrew Gillick with Enverus, an energy analytics company whose data is used by industry and government agencies."The folks that think oil and gas will be gone in 10 years may not be thinking through what this means," Gillick said. "Both supply and demand will increase over the next decade."The result would be more planet-warming carbon dioxide – up to 110 million tons annually – from U.S.-produced oil and gas by 2030, with most coming from fuel burned after export, according to some economists and analysts. Others predict smaller increases.The law reinstates within 30 days the 2,700-square miles of Gulf leases that had been withheld. It ensures companies like Chevron will have the chance to expand and overrides the concerns of U.S. District Judge Rudolph Contreras that the government was "barreling full-steam ahead" without adequately considering global emission increases.The measure's importance was underscored by Chevron executives during a recent earnings call, where they predicted continued growth in the Gulf and tied that directly to being able "to lease and acquire additional acreage."

U.S. Oil And Gas Firms Made $74 Billion In Profits Last Year -- U.S. oil and gas companies generated profits worth $73.7 billion last year on the back of improving prices, with capital expenditure reaching $144.1 billion. This is one of the outtakes from a new report from EY titled “U.S. oil and gas reserves, production and ESG benchmarking study.” The study detailed the latest production trends and how the 50 largest public exploration and production companies can improve their ESG standing, but it also reported on things like profits, revenues, and cash returned to shareholders. This was also a substantial amount, at $18.1 billion in 2021, up by 122 percent from $8.1 billion a year earlier. The report noted that despite the higher prices that pushed profits and cash returns much higher, companies have been careful with capital expenditure because of the transition push. “Oil and gas companies have a challenging role to play: providing secure, affordable energy to consumers and customers globally while also embracing the urgent need to address climate change,” the report’s authors wrote. This is a challenging task even at the best of times, and these are not the best of times, which has made the situation rather complicated. “Therefore, despite the need for increased product now, the investments that historically follow sky-high commodity prices have not materialized,” the authors report. “In fact, the 2022 EY US oil and gas reserves, production and ESG benchmarking study found that expenditures for extensions and discoveries ranked at the second-lowest level in the last five years.” This makes the EY report the latest in an increasingly long series of reports documenting a major shift in the oil and gas industry as it adjusts to a chronically uncertain environment, in which they cannot know how long there will be demand for their product. Ironically, this uncertainty has been a big reason for the latest price surge that began last year because of that changing attitude that made oil and gas explorers and producers wary of spending too much on new supply.

U.S. Shale Faces More Than $10 Billion In Hedging Losses -U.S. shale oil producers are in line to suffer more than $10 billion in derivative hedging losses this year if oil prices remain around $100 per barrel, Rystad Energy research shows. Many shale operators offset their risk exposure through derivative hedging, helping them to raise capital for operations more efficiently. Those who hedged at lower prices last year are in line to suffer significant associated losses as their contracts mean they cannot capitalize on sky-high prices. Despite these hedging losses, record-high cash flow and net income have been widely reported by US onshore exploration and production (E&P) companies this earnings season. These operators are now adapting their strategies and negotiating contracts for the second half of 2022 and 2023 based on current high prices, so if oil prices fall next year, these agile E&Ps will be able to capitalize and will likely boast even stronger financials. Anticipating the significant negative impact of these hedges, shale operators made a concerted effort in the first half of this year to lower their exposure and limit the impact on their balance sheets. Many operators have successfully negotiated higher ceilings for 2023 contracts and based on current reported hedging activity for next year, even at a crude price of $100 per barrel, losses would total just $3 billion, a significant drop from this year. At $85 per barrel, hedged losses would total $1.5 billion; if it fell further to $65, hedging activity would be a net earner for operators. E&Ps typically employ derivative hedging to limit cash flow risks and secure funding for operations. However, commodity derivative hedging is not the only risk management strategy operators use. Rystad Energy’s analysis looked at a peer group of 28 US light tight oil (LTO) producers, whose collective guided 2022 oil production accounts for close to 40% of the expected US shale total. Of this group, 21 operators have detailed their 2022 hedging positions as of August. The group includes all public hedging activity in the sector as supermajors do not employ derivative hedging as a funding strategy, and private operators do not disclose their hedges publicly. “With huge losses on the table, operators have been frantically adapting their hedging strategies to minimize losses this year and next. As a result, we may not have seen peak cash flow in the industry yet, which is hard to believe given the soaring financials reported in recent weeks,” says Rystad Energy vice president Alisa Lukash.

US Shale Operators Not Capitalizing On High Crude Prices - US shale oil producers are in line to suffer more than $10 billion in derivative hedging losses this year if oil prices remain around $100 per barrel, Rystad Energy research shows. Many shale operators offset their risk exposure through derivative hedging, helping them to raise capital for operations more efficiently. Those who hedged at lower prices last year are in line to suffer significant associated losses as their contracts mean they cannot capitalize on sky-high prices. Despite these hedging losses, record-high cash flow and net income have been widely reported by US onshore exploration and production companies this earnings season. These operators are now adapting their strategies and negotiating contracts for the second half of 2022 and 2023 based on current high prices, so if oil prices fall next year, these agile E&Ps will be able to capitalize and will likely boast even stronger financials. Anticipating the significant negative impact of these hedges, shale operators made a concerted effort in the first half of this year to lower their exposure and limit the impact on their balance sheets. Rystad claimed that many operators had successfully negotiated higher ceilings for 2023 contracts and based on current reported hedging activity for next year, even at a crude price of $100 per barrel, losses would total just $3 billion, a significant drop from this year. At $85 per barrel, hedged losses would total $1.5 billion; if it fell further to $65, hedging activity would be a net earner for operators. E&Ps typically employ derivative hedging to limit cash flow risks and secure funding for operations. However, commodity derivative hedging is not the only risk management strategy operators use. Rystad Energy’s analysis looked at a peer group of 28 US light tight oil producers, whose collective guided 2022 oil production accounts for close to 40% of the expected US shale total. Of this group, 21 operators have detailed their 2022 hedging positions as of August. The group includes all public hedging activity in the sector as supermajors do not employ derivative hedging as a funding strategy, and private operators do not disclose their hedges publicly. “With huge losses on the table, operators have been frantically adapting their hedging strategies to minimize losses this year and next. As a result, we may not have seen peak cash flow in the industry yet, which is hard to believe given the soaring financials reported in recent weeks,” says Rystad Energy vice president Alisa Lukash. Operators currently have 42% of their total guided and estimated oil output for 2022 hedged at a West Texas Intermediate average floor of $55 per barrel. Overall, producers have hedged 46% of their expected crude oil output for the year. In the second quarter, companies reported an average negative hedging impact of $21 per barrel on their realized crude prices – the value they receive for production minus any negative hedging impact. For some operators like Chesapeake Energy and Laredo Petroleum, the impact has been higher, at above $35 per barrel. Fewer companies reported any significant effect on their derivatives contracts in the latest quarter compared to the previous three months. Still, an analysis of the difference in the hedging impact on realized prices per operator between the first and the second quarter shows that in most cases, second-quarter losses were stronger by $4 per barrel on average. The US onshore oil and gas industry’s hedging strategy has been closely tracked as a critical barometer for cash flows, particularly given the sharp price volatility over the past few years, allowing investors and lenders to make funding calls. Operators have already increased the cover for their expected oil volumes in 2023 to 17%, with many targeting 20% to 40% of output to be secured with derivatives. Significantly, 2023 contracts would limit hedging losses at $100 per barrel WTI to only $3 billion compared to $10.2 billion in 2022.

 DNR: Enbridge shut down oil and gas pipeline again this week near Bad River tribe's reservation -For the second time in a week, a Canadian energy firm shut down a pipeline near the Bad River tribe’s reservation — this time to investigate crude oil staining on a weld of its pipeline. On Wednesday, Enbridge Inc. notified state regulators that it had shut down its Line 5 pipeline in an area near Ashland where the company reported contaminated soil last week, according to Trevor Nobile, a field operations director with the Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources. The pipeline spans around 645 miles and carries up to 23 million gallons of oil and natural gas liquids daily from Superior across northern Wisconsin and Michigan to Sarnia, Ontario. "The notification that we received in the information that was provided to the department on the evening of Aug. 10, it was described as a small area of staining on a pipe on a weld was discovered, and that Line 5 had been shut down so crews could evaluate and make repairs," Nobile said. Enbridge made the report around 5 p.m. Wednesday, and a DNR conservation warden visited the site at 10 p.m. "No material was released to soil or water at this time, based on the information provided," Nobile confirmed. The conservation warden didn’t observe any petroleum odors, stained soil or any water at the time of the site visit. An Enbridge spokesperson said repairs have since been completed, and the pipeline resumed operation Friday morning. "The cause of the stain is being investigated," said Juli Kellner, an Enbridge spokesperson. Enbridge notified the Pipeline Hazardous Materials Safety Administration about the repairs and the Bad River Band of Lake Superior Chippewa. Last week, Enbridge shut down Line 5 for three hours on Aug. 3 after crews conducting maintenance spotted a tablespoon of oil that had spilled from a valve site in the Ashland County town of Gingles. The site is about 1 mile from the reservation of the Bad River tribe.

 Bureau of Land Management to pause oil, gas leasing on 2.2 million acres in Colorado - The Bureau of Land Management will pause oil and gas leasing on 2.2 million acres of Colorado public land after environmental groups alleged its current management plan failed to consider climate impacts, according to a settlement. The agreement was filed Thursday in Colorado federal court and requires the government to conduct a new environmental analysis of the climate impacts of oil and gas leasing on public lands in southwestern Colorado. The government also agreed to consider how the leases may impact the endangered Gunnison sage-grouse and its habitat. The Sierra Club, Center for Biological Diversity and others said in an August 2020 lawsuit that BLM had violated the National Environmental Policy Act, which requires the government to take a hard look at the environmental impacts of its leasing decisions, when it approved the current 20-year plan. The groups said the decision to allow leasing on these public lands would aggravate the climate crisis and that it would be "impossible" to address that impact without "completely transforming the way public lands are managed for fossil fuel exploitation." Advertise with usReport ad The groups also said the government failed to adequately consider the impacts leasing would have on the survival and recovery of the threatened Gunnison sage-grouse. The settlement pauses all new leasing in the area known as the North Fork Valley. The green groups, represented by Melissa Hornbein of the Western Environmental Law Center, say the plan puts the local culture revolving around family farms, wineries, recreational opportunities and wildlife at risk. "It's absolutely crazy for the BLM to be considering a management plan that opens up 95% of the available mineral estate in the area ... without really confronting the issue of where we are in the climate crisis," Hornbein told Reuters. A spokesperson for BLM declined to comment.

Court strikes down ruling that blocked Biden’s oil drilling pause - A federal appellate judge struck down a lower court’s decision that had stopped the Biden administration from pausing the auction of oil and gas drilling rights in federal lands and water, a key campaign pledge in the president’s plan for tackling climate change. On Wednesday, the U.S. Court of Appeals for the 5th Circuit vacated a district-court decision from last year in favor of Louisiana and a dozen other states, many of which rely on oil and gas royalties to fund their governments. Circuit Judge Patrick E. Higginbotham sent the case back to the lower court, writing that its initial decision stopping Biden’s moratorium on leasing was too vague to be valid. The latest ruling may help reinvigorate Biden’s efforts to slow global warming by reforming the federal government’s oil and gas leasing program. Emissions from fossil fuels extracted on federal lands account for nearly a quarter of the nation’s heat-trapping carbon-dioxide pollution. But the question of whether the oil and gas leasing program can be curtailed to address global warming has ping-ponged from one federal court to another, with none seemingly able to make a lasting decision. Curbing new extraction of oil and gas on public lands is further complicated by the politics of high gasoline prices as well as Democrats’ recently enacted climate, health-care and tax package. Biden signs sweeping bill to tackle climate change, lower health-care costs What happens next isn’t clear. By sweeping away the injunction, the appeals court gives the Biden administration a potential path to pause leasing again. But a compromise won by Sen. Joe Manchin III (D-W.Va.) in the new climate law mandates new oil and gas sales off the coast of Alaska and in the Gulf of Mexico. The legislation, called the Inflation Reduction Act, also tethers the construction of wind turbines along the East Coast and solar farms in many southwest deserts to ongoing oil and gas auctions, another painful concession for climate advocates. Interior Department spokeswoman Melissa Schwartz said the Biden administration is reviewing Wednesday’s ruling.

Biden Freeze on Oil and Gas Leases Reinstated -President Joe Biden won temporary permission to once again pause energy leasing on federal lands and waters, after a US appeals court found a trial judge’s order against the moratorium too vague to review. The court on Wednesday threw out the judge’s nationwide injunction forcing a restart of leasing from the Gulf of Mexico to Alaska and ordered the judge to revisit the issue. In the meantime, Biden’s pause stands. The ruling came in a dispute between the administration and 13 energy-producing states led by Louisiana that sued to force Biden to resume leasing he paused a week after taking office. After the lower court last year issued its preliminary injunction against the leasing moratorium, the government appealed. “We cannot reach the merits of the government’s challenge when we cannot ascertain from the record what conduct -- an unwritten agency policy, a written policy outside the executive order, or the executive order itself -- is enjoined,” the appeals court wrote on Wednesday. It isn’t clear what immediate effect the ruling will have. Under the just-enacted Inflation Reduction Act, which provides hundreds of billions of dollars to fight climate change, the Interior Department is required to hold two auctions of oil and gas leases in the Gulf of Mexico. The law also makes future renewable energy projects on federal lands and waters contingent on leasing. The government can issue new wind and solar rights only if it has recently sold new drilling rights too -- a requirement designed to spur more fossil fuel leasing despite Biden’s campaign pledge to stop permitting such projects on public lands. “It’s unfortunate we have to continue litigating policies by Biden that cause pain for American families, especially those crushing us at the pump,” Louisiana Attorney General Jeff Landry said in an emailed statement. A spokeswoman for the Interior Department said it was reviewing the ruling, “The practical impacts” of the ruling, and even of the case’s ultimate outcome, “may be minor” given those leasing mandates, said Erik Milito, president of the National Ocean Industries Association, which represents offshore oil and wind companies. Energy Demand Biden issued the moratorium so officials could examine the environmental impact of the leasing. Environmentalists have pressured the president to go further in reducing fossil fuel development on federal lands. Drew Caputo, vice president of litigation at the environmental advocacy group Earthjustice, called on the Interior Department to swiftly overhaul federal oil leasing. “We are in a climate emergency and cannot afford any new leasing that will further entrench the fossil fuel industry’s hold on our country’s energy future,” Caputo said.

Climate law may undermine Biden court win on oil leasing - -A court ruling yesterday cleared the way for President Joe Biden to once again pursue one of his earliest climate actions: A pause on federal oil and gas leasing designed to give the government time to study the program’s contributions to planet-warming emissions.But can a new ban actually be implemented?Not likely, observers say, because yesterday’s decision from the 5th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals came one day after the president signed the Inflation Reduction Act, a major climate law committing the federal government to millions of acres of new onshore and offshore lease sales.The act is a “legislative mandate that now needs to be followed by [the Department of the] Interior,” said Kyle Tisdel, climate and energy director at the Western Environmental Law Center.He added: “At least for the next 10 years, how [Interior] manages its leasing program is sort of a done deal.”Among the provisions of the Inflation Reduction Act is a requirement that the Interior Department revive the massive and controversial Lease Sale 257 in the Gulf of Mexico, which another court previously rejected for inadequate environmental analysis.The act also requires Interior over the course of a decade to lease 2 million acres of public lands per year, or half of the acreage drillers nominate, whichever is smaller. Offshore, the agency is directed to offer 60 million acres of federal waters each year. These requirements are part of a provision for granting certain wind and solar energy permitting.Yesterday’s 5th Circuit ruling “does not change our existing expectation for the Biden Administration to pursue the smallest number of onshore and offshore lease sales necessary to enable green energy development on federal lands under requirements imposed by the” Inflation Reduction Act, said ClearView Energy Partners LLC in a note to clients.The 5th Circuit decision also follows Interior’s November 2021 release of its climate analysis of the leasing program — the impetus for Biden’s pause.Nicholas Bryner, a law professor at Louisiana State University, said the 5th Circuit ruling didn’t appear likely to change much on the ground when it comes to leasing, especially after the passage of the new climate law.He noted that the act required BOEM to grant Lease Sale 257 to the highest bidder 30 days after the law’s passage. The sale, which had been specifically referenced in the 5th Circuit leasing litigation, had been tossed out by another court for violating the National Environmental Policy Act — a decision the oil and gas industry is now fighting in the U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit.In a court filing yesterday in the D.C. Circuit, the Justice Department said that the passage of the IRA was relevant to the litigation, but it was still reviewing the scope of the law’s impact on the legal fight.

Coast guard monitoring oil spill off southern Vancouver Island | CBC News -U.S. and Canadian authorities say they're working together to manage an oil spill near San Juan Island, Wash. — just off the southern tip of Vancouver Island.The spill started Saturday after the fishing boat Aleutian Isle started sinking near Sunset Point, which is on the west side of San Juan Island.The U.S. Coast Guard (USCG) said in a statement that the vessel had nearly 9,840 litres (2,600 U.S. gallons) of oil and diesel on board. A nearly 2.8 kilometre-long sheen from the spill was visible in an aerial image tweeted out around 6 p.m. Saturday. "The vessel is more than 100 feet (30 metres) under water and is currently polluting," said a spokesperson from the Canadian Coast Guard. "The Canadian Coast Guard is working closely with the USCG and is ready to respond and ready to assist as required."All five people on board the fishing boat were rescued as it sank, according to the USCG's statement.The spill is raising concerns over the southern resident killer whales, which are severely endangered and swim in the Salish Sea. An update from the USCG on Sunday morning said the killer whales were located by researchers west of Port Angeles, Wash., which is a good distance south of the spill.

 BLM reconsiders Trump-era midnight orders opening Alaska lands -- The Biden administration plans to conduct an in-depth analysis of a series of public land orders issued in the final weeks of the Trump administration that sought to open 28 million acres of federal lands in Alaska to oil and gas development and mining activity.The Bureau of Land Management will formally publish a notice of intent in tomorrow’s Federal Register to begin an environmental impact statement (EIS) studying so-called legal deficiencies in five public land orders signed in January 2021 by then-Interior Secretary David Bernhardt.The Biden administration in April 2021 placed those orders on a two-year moratorium while it analyzed the Bernhardt orders (Greenwire, April 15, 2021).The public land orders BLM will analyze collectively cover 28 million acres in portions of the “Bay, Bering Sea-Western Interior, East Alaska, Kobuk-Seward Peninsula, and Ring of Fire planning areas,” according to a advance notice in today’s Federal Register.Publication of the notice will kick off a 60-day public scoping period, running through Oct. 17, to gather public feedback on the major issues that BLM should analyze in the EIS.BLM said in press materials that the EIS would focus on addressing “the legal defects in the decision-making process,” in the five public land orders, “including ensuring compliance with the requirements of National Environmental Policy Act.”Issues that will be studied, according to today’s notice, include “possible failure to adequately evaluate impacts” of opening the lands to mining and drilling under the Endangered Species Act, as well as “failure to secure consent from the Department of Defense (DOD) with regard to lands under DOD administration,” and “failure to adequately analyze potential impacts on subsistence hunting and fishing.”Depending on the outcome of the EIS, BLM could fully or partially revoke the Bernhardt orders, or retain “some or all” of the Bernhardt withdrawals that would open the lands to development.Bernhardt signed the five public land orders in January 2021 during the final two weeks of the Trump presidency.But only one of the five public lands orders, PLO 7899, was published in the Federal Register, on Jan. 19, 2021. It covered 9.7 million acres west of the National Petroleum Reserve-Alaska along the Arctic Ocean and would have been opened to mining and oil and gas development on April 19, 2021 (Greenwire, Feb. 17, 2021).The other four orders — PLOs 7900, 7901, 7902 and 7903 — signed by Bernhardt on Jan. 15 and 16 last year “were never published in the Federal Register and have no effective date,” Interior said.The Biden administration’s decision to pause the Bernhardt orders last year riled Alaska Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R), as well as the National Mining Association, among others.Murkowski declined to vote last year to confirm BLM Director Tracy Stone-Manning’s nomination to lead the bureau due to what she alluded to at the time as Stone-Manning’s response to her questions about the public land orders and whether she supported the moratorium.

 The Gulf of Mexico Has a Pirate Problem - Dryad Global’s latest Maritime Security Threat Advisory (MSTA) has outlined that the Gulf of Mexico is in the midst of a pirate problem. According to the MSTA, on August 7, pirates onboard two speedboats boarded and robbed a manned semi-submersible drilling rig in the Bay of Campeche approximately 28nm north of Paraiso. The MSTA also notes that, on August 10, a vessel was approached by suspected pirates when transiting inbound to Puerto Dos Bocas. “There has been an increase in the cadence of incidents in the Gulf of Mexico,” the MSTA states. “Since 22 May 2022, there have been six maritime events just within the Bay of Campeche. Three supply vessels have been attacked, and three oil platforms,” the MSTA adds. “Despite previously focusing on unmanned assets, there has been a noticeable evolution where pirates are boarding vessels or oil platforms when personnel are present,” the MSTA continues. A previous version of the MSTA, which was published last month, outlined that, in the Gulf of Mexico, reporting indicated that on July 16, pirates attacked five Pemex satellite platforms in the Cantarell Productive Field in the Bay of Campeche. “The Bay of Campeche remains the epicenter of maritime crime and piracy within the Gulf of Mexico,” the MSTA noted at the time. “Currently there is believed to be a significant degree of under-reporting of incidents within the Gulf of Mexico,” the MSTA added. At the time of writing, a U.S. State Department map warns travelers to exercise increased caution at every Mexican state bordering the Gulf of Mexico, except Taumalipas, which has a do not travel warning, and Yucatan and Campeche, which warn travelers to exercise normal precautions. Dryad Global’s latest MSTA also highlighted pirate activity in Iran and Sierra Leone. “Iranian state media claimed that Iranian naval vessels thwarted a pirate attack in the Red Sea on 10 August,” the MSTA stated. “This comes after reports last week that the Iranian navy thwarted a pirate attack in the Gulf of Aden. Beyond Iranian vessels, no such attacks have taken place against any commercial vessels within the area across a protracted timeframe,” the MSTA added.

Global Refining Capacity Set to Grow, But U.S. Gains Will Be Negligible - The cost of gasoline has garnered a lot of headlines since the start of 2022, with the blame for elevated prices falling on seemingly everything and everyone, from the Biden administration’s policies on oil exploration to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, as well as decisions by major U.S. producers and OPEC not to swiftly boost oil production. Another can't-be-ignored culprit is the loss of significant U.S. refining capacity over the last few years, which has limited the ability of refiners to respond to the strong, post-COVID demand recovery by ramping up production. By and large, the refineries still operating have been running flat out. In today’s RBN blog, we look at the state of global refining, where new capacity is likely to be built, and the headwinds to future investment. About 1 MMb/d of North American refinery capacity reductions (blue-shaded row in Figure 1) have occurred since 2019, with an additional 400 Mb/d planned to be taken offline over the next two years, as we outlined in Already Gone, Part 1. The additional closures will, however, be almost exactly offset by two major U.S. refinery expansions, leading to essentially no net change in U.S. refining capacity through 2024. Following more than two decades of U.S. refining capacity growth, the tides shifted in 2019-20 as the push for the energy transition gathered steam and the pandemic caused a record decline in transportation fuel demand. In addition, negative market trends, competitive challenges (both domestic and international) and changing crude-supply dynamics caused refiners across the U.S. to comb through their assets for possible consolidation, conversion to biofuels production or even total plant closure. Facilities on the East and West coasts felt the most pressure, but even plants operating in previously attractive market environments started to face scrutiny.Looking forward, North American refining capacity will likely avoid the declines expected in much of the developed world, as North American refiners will continue to benefit from cost-advantaged access to U.S. and Canadian crude oil, low (relative) natural gas and electricity costs, a comparatively friendly regulatory environment, and growing Latin American demand.Unlike the U.S., Europe (green-shaded row in Figure 1) has experienced a long-term decline in refining capacity due to sluggish demand and decreased competitiveness. As we detailed in Already Gone, Part 2, the continent’s refining capacity (excluding Turkey and the Commonwealth of Independent States, or CIS, which includes eight countries that, with Russia, formed the old USSR) has fallen by almost 8 MMb/d since 1980. Most recently, Europe lost about 3 MMb/d of refinery capacity from 2006 through 2017 before a brief “European Spring,” inspired by lower crude costs and a bump in demand, led to a few years of better margins. The good times ended with the COVID-related lockdowns, and Europe has lost more than 700 Mb/d of refining capacity since the beginning of 2020 through complete and partial closures, with more declines expected by 2024. Capacity reductions are likely to keep happening after 2024 as refiners on the continent continue to be challenged by declining regional product demand and high natural gas, electricity, crude and labor costs. It’s worth noting that while European capacity has moved lower, capacity in the CIS and Turkey has generally ticked higher in recent years.Refining capacity in developed Asia and Oceania (gray-shaded row in Figure 1; defined here as Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Australia, and New Zealand) has followed a similar path as Europe for most of the same reasons. These drops in capacity will continue as the trends driving the reduction are only intensifying.In contrast to Europe and developed Asia (and, to a lesser extent, the U.S.), the trends have been just the opposite for China, India and the Middle East (pink-shaded rows in Figure 1), with each adding refining capacity over the past decade. The most significant additions have come from China, which has seen capacity jump from about 14.5 MMb/d in 2014 to nearly 17 MMb/d in 2022, with an expectation that it will approach 18.2 MMb/d in 2024. India’s capacity is forecast to reach nearly 5.3 MMb/d in 2024, up about 1 MMb/d since 2014, and the Middle East is expected to hit 11.9 MMb/d in 2024, a 37% increase from 2014 levels. Total capacity in other parts of Asia Pacific has increased modestly since 2014, while capacity has been mostly flat in Africa and Latin America (though Latin America has suffered from declining refinery utilization — a topic for another blog).

Flotilla of Diesel Ships Heads to Europe -A fleet of ships carrying diesel, one of the world’s most important fuels, is heading for European markets facing energy-security threats from high temperatures, soaring gas prices, and Russian disruption. Five ships transporting close to 3 million barrels are poised to move from Asia to Europe so far in August, preliminary data from Vortexa show. That’s the most in five months on a barrel-per-day basis. Shipments from the Middle East to Europe are also set to expand. The rising flows of diesel -- used in industries, transport and for power -- toward Europe are a result of market dislocations caused by higher prices at the hub of Amsterdam, Rotterdam and Antwerp (ARA) relative to Asia, said traders. China’s sputtering economy and a seasonal demand lull in India also contributed to Asia’s oversupply, they added. Europe has been struggling with a historic drought that’s causing a plunge in water levels on the Rhine River. The waterway that links oil tanks in the ARA hub to consumers in inland Europe is currently impassable to most barges, creating a supply bottleneck that could prompt draw-downs in their stockpiles that will need to be replenished ahead of winter. Countries including Sweden and Germany have warned of rising oil consumption in a bid to replace pricey gas, while the region has been purchasing more coal from across the world. It’s still unclear, however, just how strongly Europe’s demand will rebound this year-end due to a slowdown in the region’s economy. Diesel that will load from India and North Asia in August takes close to a month to reach Europe, arriving at its destination just as summer comes to an end. Some of the vessels on the so-called arbitrage route to Europe include larger vessels such as Suezmaxes that can carry up to 1 million barrels of oil. “Traders are taking opportunity of the economies of scale to make the East-West arbitrage workable by loading their cargoes onto these larger tankers,” said Serena Huang, lead Asia analyst for Vortexa. Gas-to-oil switching is forecast to surge this year, with the International Energy Agency boosting its forecast for global oil demand growth by 380,000 barrels daily on the expectation that industry and power generators will switch fuels. The extra demand that prompted the revision is “overwhelmingly concentrated” in the Middle East and Europe, the agency said. Its bullish view was echoed by Goldman Sachs Group Inc. Additionally, the risk of Russian gas-supply disruptions and concerns over energy security are set to encourage more diesel stockpiling. Europe’s benchmark for gas has nearly tripled this year, soaring way beyond the 18% climb in oil prices during the same period.

European Gas Set for Another Weekly Gain - Natural gas in Europe headed for the longest run of weekly gains this year, intensifying the pain for industries and households, and threatening to push economies into recession. Benchmark futures eased on Friday after closing at a record high in the previous session. The market has tightened even more in recent weeks as extremely hot and dry weather disrupts fuel transportation via rivers and limits hydroelectric and nuclear power production. That’s boosting demand for gas at a time when Russian supply cuts are already slamming the region. It’s been an unusual and difficult summer for Europe. Prices and demand typically ease during the warmer months, helping the continent pump gas into storage and prepare for the winter. But Moscow’s supply reduction through all major pipeline routes and searing heat waves have kept gas prices about 11 times higher than they usually are this time of the year. “Abnormally high and extended dry spells are likely to be near-term multipliers in Europe’s energy crisis, with suppressed power sources increasing demand for gas and stoking upward price pressure,” Bloomberg Intelligence analysts wrote in a report. Dutch front-month contract, the European benchmark, were 2.1% lower at 236 euros a megawatt-hour at 9:05 a.m. in Amsterdam. Still, it is heading for a fifth straight weekly gain, the longest run since mid-December. The high prices have already forced about half of Europe’s zinc and aluminum smelting capacity to shut down over the past year, and more is set to go offline. Germany, among the worst affected, is risking an industry exodus as manufacturers of car parts, chemicals and steel struggle to absorb energy prices. The government has urged consumers to lower demand, and on Thursday cut sales tax on gas to temporarily ease the burden. Low water levels in the Rhine River has lead Shell Plc to cut production at its Rhineland oil refinery in Germany, the nation’s biggest oil-processing complex. Navigability through Europe’s most important commercial waterway has been hampered in recent days, but some respite may be seen during the weekend as water levels at a major waypoint are expected to rise. A prolonged and severe drought in Spain and Portugal is pushing baseload hydroelectric output to historical lows, prompting increased calls for gas-fired power, according to Bloomberg Intelligence.

Natural Gas Demand Outpaces Production - Natural gas demand in major consuming countries stood in June at 104 percent of year-ago levels, but production was flat compared to 2021 levels, new data from the Joint Organisations Data Initiative (JODI) showed on Wednesday. While U.S. natural gas production has been rising in recent months alongside LNG exports, Russian gas production has plummeted since Russia invaded Ukraine at the end of February.In June, Russian gas production plummeted 18 percent month on month, falling for three consecutive months. Russia’s gas output in June was at 70 percent of March levels, according to data from JODI, which compiles self-reported figures from countries.At the same time, consumption in the European Union and the UK slumped to a five-year seasonal low in June. LNG imports soared by 50 percent compared to June last year.High demand in Europe, high natural gas prices, and increased export capacity made the United States the world’s largest exporter of liquefied natural gas in the first half of 2022, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said last month. The United States is shipping record volumes of LNG to Europe to help EU allies in their efforts to fill gas storage ahead of the winter.The European Union and the UK inventories increased by 9 bcm – slightly less than the seasonal average build of 11 bcm – to stand 57 percent full at the end of June. According to data from Gas Infrastructure Europe, as of August 16, EU gas storage was 75 percent full. Storage sites in Germany, Europe’s biggest economy which is the most affected by the Russian cuts in deliveries via Nord Stream, were full at 77 percent.As Europe looks to replace Russian pipeline gas, global LNG exports increased by 17 percent in June compared to the same month of 2021. Total gas inventories increased by 28.5 bcm and stood 16.1 bcm below the five-year average, the JODI data showed.

Russia’s Natural Gas Production Falls For Three Consecutive Months - Russia’s natural gas production plunged by 18 percent in June compared to May, new data from the Joint Organisations Data Initiative (JODI) showed on Wednesday, cited by the International Energy Forum.Russia’s natural gas output in June was 30 percent below the March level, just after the Russian invasion of Ukraine, according to the data from JODI, which compiles self-reported data from countries.At the same time, Russian crude oil production was just 247,000 barrels per day (bpd)—or 2 percent—lower compared to before the war in Ukraine, according to JODI data. Russian gas exports have also been falling throughout this year.On Tuesday, Gazprom said that its natural gas exports slumped by 36.2 percent to 78.5 billion cubic meters between January and the middle of August, as deliveries to Europe plummeted.Natural gas production also fell, slipping 13.2 percent to 274.8 billion cubic meters between January 1 and August 15 compared to the same period of 2021, according to a Gazprom statement.Since the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Gazprom has slashed supply to European Union member states, including by cutting off deliveries to Poland, Bulgaria, and Finland. Two months ago, Russia drastically cut gas supply via the key Nord Stream pipeline to Germany to 40 percent of capacity. Following a 10-day regular maintenance period, Gazprom further slashed Nord Stream flows to 20 percent of the pipeline’s capacity at the end of July. Meanwhile, amid soaring prices, gas consumption in the EU and the UK combined fell to a five-year seasonal low in June, the JODI data showed. Imports of liquefied natural gas (LNG) surged by almost 50 percent in June compared to the same month of 2021, as Europe scrambles to procure alternatives to Russian pipeline supply. The EU, for its part, has reduced its dependence on Russian gas deliveries by 50 percent, but savings will be necessary to make up for the difference with alternative supplies. This is what the High Representative of the EU for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, Josep Borrell, said earlier this month in a blog post. According to data from Gas Infrastructure Europe, as of August 16, EU gas storage was 75 percent full, with Germany’s storage filled at 77 percent.

 German Refinery Reliant on Russia Now Using USA Oil -Germany’s Schwedt oil refinery has started processing US crude blended with Russian Urals, according to a person familiar with the matter. US crude brought in from Rostock on Germany’s Baltic coast currently accounts for about 20% of what the refinery is processing, the person said. The port recently took delivery of its first cargo of US oil in at least half a decade. Operator PCK couldn’t immediately be reached by phone for comment. The Schwedt refinery, partly owned by Moscow-based Rosneft PJSC, is located near the Polish border and has always relied on the Druzhba pipeline from Russia for crude supply. German Economy Minister Robert Habeck said previously it is the hardest refinery in Germany to wean off Russian oil supply. Because the facility was designed to process Russian oil shipped via Druzhba, “replacing those volumes is basically impossible both physically and technologically,” Rosneft’s press office said by email. Supplies through the pipeline from Rostock can meet no more than half of the refinery’s crude demand, according to Rosneft. Lower runs could lead to Schwedt incurring losses of some 300 million euros ($306 million) per year, the Russian crude producer said.

German Officials Warn Of Draconian Energy Regulations, "Extremists" Fueling "Mass Protests And Riots" -As queries for "firewood" have exploded on Google in Germany, and Deutsche Bank predicting that "wood will be used for heating purposes where possible. German Economy Minister and Vice Chancellor Robert Habeck - who previously called on residents to cut back on heating, visits to the sauna, and showers - announced on Friday that public buildings across the country won't be allowed to set heating above 19 degrees Celsius (66.2F) this fall. Exceptions will be made for hospitals and 'social facilities.'In an interview with Suddeutsche Zeitung, one of the country's largest daily newspapers, Habeck said that the new regulations would be part of the Energy Security Act - adding to previously announced bans on heating private pools.In addition, buildings and monuments will not longer be lit at night, and there will be curbs on illuminated advertising - while "more savings are also needed in the work environment," he added.Habeck's announcement comes just days after the head of Germany's grid regulator, Klaus Mueller, said that German families would need to cut 20% of their normal energy consumption in order to avoid gas shortages by December."If we don't save a lot and get extra fuel, we will have a problem," he told Welt am Sonntag in an interview last week.The situation has been brewing, as the bloc's reliance on Russian energy comes into conflict with sanctions over Russia's war in Ukraine - causing prices to skyrocket amid a decrease in Russian natural gas supplies to Europe.Meanwhile, German officials are preparing for civil unrest.In an interview with ZDF, Stephan Kramer - who heads the domestic intelligence service in the German state of Thuringia - warned that 'legitimate' protests over the energy crisis could be 'hijacked by extremists' (and definitely not just enraged average citizens).Kramer said that officials were bracing for protests over "gas shortages, energy problems, supply difficulties, possible recession, unemployment, but also the growing poverty right up to the middle class," adding that "extremists" which include "lateral thinkers" who rallied against pandemic lockdowns, and 'right-wing activists' who have been stirring the post over social media, could be at the heart of them."We're likely to be confronted with mass protests and riots," he continued. "We’re dealing with a highly emotionalized, aggressive, future-pessimistic mood in society, whose trust in the state, its institutions and political actors is fraught with massive doubts.""This highly emotional and explosive mood could easily escalate," the security chief continued, adding that the Covid-19 clashes would "probably feel more like a children's birthday party" by comparison.

Russia Gas Transit Payment Goes Through After Glitch - Russia’s payment to Ukraine for natural gas transit this month has gone through without problems, even after a glitch with a similar oil transaction, according to people familiar with the situation. State-run Gazprom PJSC sent its regular monthly payment to Ukraine’s NJSC Naftogaz Ukrainy last week and it has been accepted, according to people on both sides, who asked not to be named as the information isn’t public. Traders were on edge about possible disruptions to the crucial payment after shipments through one branch of the Druzhba oil pipeline were halted in early August after a financial transfer from Russia to Ukraine was snarled because of European sanctions. The issue was resolved last week. Representatives for Gazprom didn’t respond to a request for comment. Naftogaz had no comment. Russia is squeezing its gas supply to Europe, pushing energy prices to records and driving a cost-of-living crisis. Flows through the main pipeline, Nord Stream, are at just 20%, while transit through Ukraine is also well below usual.

 Gas-To-Oil Switch May Not Be A Huge Catalyst For EU Crude Demand - Last week, oil prices finished the week in the green, gaining 3.5% after tumbling nearly 10% a week earlier thanks to a weakening dollar after better-than-expected inflation data altered interest rate expectations from the Fed. Unfortunately, the oil price rally has been snuffed out in a dramatic fashion. WTI and Brent crude have both declined more than 5% in Monday’s morning session to trade at $87.31/bbl and 93.16/bbl on demand fears as disappointing Chinese economic data renewed global recession concerns. China's central bank cut key lending rates in a bid to revive demand as the latest data showed the economy unexpectedly slowing in July–and the market wasn’t expecting it. China’s industrial output grew 3.8% in July from a year earlier, well below the 4.6% consensus on Wall Street. The grim set of figures is an indication that the world’s largest importer of crude is struggling to shake off the effects of Beijing’s Covid restrictions months earlier.Coupled with high oil price volatility, this is taking a heavy toll on oil prices, with Brent crude open interest this month down 20% compared to a year ago levels."Open interest is still falling, with some (market players) not interested in touching it because of volatility. That is, in my view, the reason resulting in higher volumes to the downside," UBS oil analyst Giovanni Staunovo has said, adding that the trigger for Monday’s drop was weak Chinese data. But a slowing Chinese economy might be just one of a host of bearish catalysts that might conspire to keep oil prices grounded if Europe’s natural gas stockpiles are any indication.Shortly after Russia invaded Ukraine in late February, dozens of Eurozone countries pledged to heavily cut Russian natural gas imports or halt them completely as soon as they can afford to. These countries took several aggressive measures to replenish their natural gas stockpiles ahead of the winter season, including reaching a political agreement to cut gas use by 15% through next winter.And now there's a growing sense that Europe might not only meet its gas targets but also exceed them. European governments had been worried that Russia's cut in supplies through its main gas pipeline to Germany would leave many of them with less than sufficient supplies for the winter season. However, many European nations have managed to build up ample gas storage by switching from gas to coal for some power plants, steadily curbing gas demand, and increasing imports of liquefied natural gas (LNG).

Russia's Gazprom to shut gas pipeline to Europe for 3 days - (AP) — A key Russian natural gas pipeline will shut down for three days of maintenance at the end of this month, the state-owned energy company Gazprom announced Friday, raising economic pressure on Germany and other European countries that depend on the fuel to power industry, generate electricity and heat homes. The latest shutdown will come a month after Gazprom restored natural gas supply through the pipeline to only a fifth of its capacity after a previous shutoff for maintenance. Russia has blamed the reductions through the pipeline on technical problems but Germany has called the shutoffs a political move by the Kremlin to sow uncertainty and push up prices amid the conflict in Ukraine. Natural gas prices rose on Friday after the announcement, and are now more than twice as high as a year ago. In a statement posted online, Gazprom said the planned shutdown from Aug. 31 to Sept. 2 is for “routine maintenance” at a key compressor station along the Nord Stream 1 pipeline, which links western Russia and Germany. Natural gas prices have surged as Russia has reduced or cut off natural gas flows to a dozen European Union countries, fueling inflation and raising the risk that Europe could plunge into recession. Germany’s Economy Ministry said in an email to The Associated Press that it had taken note of Gazprom's planned downtime for Nord Stream 1. “We are monitoring the situation in close cooperation with the Federal Network Agency" that regulates gas markets, the ministry said. “Gas flows through Nord Stream 1 are currently unchanged at 20%.” The newly announced maintenance shutoff raises additional fears that Russia could completely cut off the gas to try to gain political leverage over Europe as it tries to boost its storage levels for winter. Germany recently announced that its gas storage facilities had reached 75% capacity, two weeks before the target date of Sept. 1. Germans have been urged to cut gas use now so the country will have enough for the winter ahead. Gazprom said once the work is completed, the flow of gas through Nord Stream 1 will resume at its prior level of 33 million cubic meters, or just 20% of the pipeline’s capacity. The routine maintenance will be carried out jointly with Siemens specialists, Gazprom said, in a reference to its German partner, Siemens Energy.

Veteran Ships Drawn to Russian Oil Trade - The fallout from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is still making waves in the shipping market, with more older tankers being deployed on the lucrative route hauling the nation’s oil from the Far East to China and India. At least four tankers 15 years or older have joined the pool of vessels delivering Russian oil from Kozmino since May, according to shipbrokers who asked not to be identified. The port usually handles about 30 cargoes of ESPO crude a month using Aframax vessels, which carry about 700,000 barrels. While Western sanctions against Moscow following the invasion put some shipowners off from handling the OPEC+ producer’s cargoes, the upheaval has inflated earnings for those still in the trade and lifted vessel valuations, too. Profits for shippers on the Kozmino-to-China route are still about triple the level seen before the outbreak of war, although they’ve eased slightly. Although ships that are 15 years old remain sea-worthy, they tend to be less efficient than newbuilds and may require more maintenance. Still, the short, five-day voyage from Kozmino to China, coupled with high profits from plying the route, have combined to attract the aged vessels. To draw business, these arrivals have been offering slightly lower prices, bringing down rates on the route, the shipbrokers said. The so-called lumpsum cost for a delivery from Kozmino into China is now about $1.5 million, a touch below the peak of $1.7 million seen in June and July, they said. The opportunities have stoked interest in used ships. So far this year, the value of older Aframax ships has increased by nearly 60%, with a 15-year-old tanker now worth about $29 million, according to VesselsValue data. Even after the recent dip in freight rates, prices are still “inflated compared to historic averages,” said Olivia Watkins, head valuations analyst at VesselsValue. That’s led to owners to want to take advantage, she said. So far this year, 58 Aframaxes have changed hands, 50% more than in the same period last year, according to VesselsValue. Some of the vessels new to the route were bought by shipowners registered in Vietnam and Hong Kong, according to data tracked by Bloomberg and shipbrokers.

Sakhalin-2 LNG Plant Asks Buyers to Pay Gazprombank - Russia has asked buyers from its Sakhalin-2 LNG plant to pay Gazprombank JSC, throwing customers including Japan and South Korea into a dilemma over sanctions that threaten shipments. Sakhalin Energy LLC, the new operator, sent settlement instructions to customers for paying in US dollars to Gazprombank, according to documents seen by Bloomberg. Gazprom PJSC owns just over 50% of Sakhalin Energy, while Gazprombank is the lending arm of Russia’s gas exporter. The step is the latest effort by Russia to consolidate control over its energy assets as President Vladimir Putin also limits flows into Russia’s biggest markets in Europe, in what is widely seen as the use of gas as a weapon. The majority of LNG shipments from Sakhalin-2 go to Japan, which relies on the facility for stable energy supplies. South Korea and Taiwan are also importers from Sakhalin-2. Payments were previously being made to non-Russian banks. The payments to Sakhalin would be made via the Bank of New York Mellon Corp., acting as the correspondent bank in the US, according to the Aug. 16-dated paperwork. Using a US bank as an intermediary may avoid potential sanctions. At least two LNG buyers are checking with their legal teams if they can make payments to Gazprombank without violating any sanctions, according to people with knowledge of the matter. Sakhalin Energy also provided an option to pay through the Moscow-based branch of Raiffeisenbank AO, but Gazprombank is preferred, said the people, who requested anonymity as the information isn’t public. Sakhalin Energy, Gazprombank and Raiffeisenbank’s Russia branch didn’t immediately respond to requests for comment. Bank of New York Mellon also didn’t respond.

Shell To Keep Prelude FLNG Shut Down Over Pay Dispute - Shell’s massive Prelude FLNG facility off Australia will remain shut in due to a pay dispute with unions still not being settled. Shell was forced to shut down the site and told customers it would be unable to supply LNG cargoes for the duration of work stoppages. The work stoppages began on June 10 and no cargoes have been shipped from the site in about five weeks. The protected industrial action was extended until September 1. Namely, unions are using an April pay deal with Japan's Inpex at its Ichthys LNG operation as a benchmark for talks with other oil and gas majors. Prelude is co-owned by Shell, Inpex, Korea Gas Corp, and Taiwan's state-run Chinese Petroleum Corp. One other bone of contention is the unions' demand that Shell ensures that it will not outsource jobs to contractors at lower rates than they pay their own staff for the same jobs. In Wednesday’s post on social media the Offshore Alliance, which represents workers from the Australian Workers' Union and the Maritime Union of Australia, said that it was in its 70th day of Protected Industrial Action in its campaign for job security and Tier 1 rates and conditions. According to the Alliance, Shell has incurred losses of around $1.3 billion in production since the dispute and shutdown began. That means that the losses stand at over $5 million per Prelude employee. Along with this, Shell has canceled the turnaround scheduled to commence in two weeks. “No company in Australian history has lost so much money in a bargaining dispute. Whatever Shell's Prelude bosses thought they could save by outsourcing permanent jobs to low-wage labor hire contractors has been exceeded 1000 times over in their ideologically bankrupt approach to bargaining negotiations. Our Prelude members have drawn a line in the sand on job security and have this week supported the extension of Protected Industrial Action until our bargaining claims are resolved,” Offshore Alliance said. Since the very start of LNG production Prelude has not been the luckiest facility around. Namely, the first problem in the facility occurred in February 2020 when an electrical trip caused Shell to shut down production. It was not brought back online until January 2021. Then, the facility experienced an unplanned event that resulted in a complete loss of power at the facility on December 2, 2021, which led to unreliable and intermittent power availability over three days. Inspectors determined that Shell did not have a sufficient understanding of the risks of the power system on the facility, including failure of mechanisms, interdependencies, and recovery. That meant that Prelude FLNG would be out for most of the first quarter of 2022. In late March, Australian watchdog NOPSEMA closed the investigation into the latest issues that caused Shell’s Prelude FLNG facility to halt production, clearing the path for restart. Shell finally resumed shipping liquefied natural gas from the Prelude FLNG facility in April.

Shell discharges five barrels of oil into Rivers environment - Shell Petroleum Development Company of Nigeria (SPDC) Ltd has discharged five barrels of crude oil from the Trans Niger Pipeline into Bodo community in Gokana Local Government of Rivers State. A Joint Investigation (JIV) report signed by the host community, National Oil Spill Detection and Response Agency (NOSDRA), Rivers State Ministry of Environment and SPDC disclosed the development. The JIV report said the Shell’s TNP discharged 98 water and two per cent crude into Bodo following the ongoing flushing of the TNP, with residual crude oil of about five barrels. Spokesman for SPDC Mr. Michael Adande said the impact of the spill within and outside the SPDC JV right of way was minimal, since the TNP had not transported crude oil since mid-June 2022. He said the report of the JIV would soon be available on the SPDC oil spills site.

Oil firms spill N711bn crude oil, degrade environment -Environmental right activists have raised the alarm over the continuous environment degradation as estimation puts total value of oil spilled by operators in the Niger Delta at N711bn. Data obtained by The PUNCH from the Nigerian Oil Spill Monitor, an arm of the National Oil Spill Detection And Response Agency, NOSDRA, revealed that a total of 23, 896 barrels crude oil was spilled by 18 firms last year. As of last year, Brent International was sold at an average of $71 per barrel at the international market, bringing total revenue lost by the companies to the menace to about $1.7m or N711bn. A breakdown of who spilled what showed that while Shell Petroleum Development Company, SPDC, spilled a total of 4097 barrels, Nigerian Agrip Oil Company, NAOC, spilled 1029 barrels. Mobil Producing Nigeria, MPN, spilled the most in the year under review with 12, 404 barrels, as Heritage spilled 344 barrels. The Nigerian petroleum Development Company, NPDC, recorded 1142 barrels; Eroton, E&P 4315 barrels; Seplat Energy, 44bbls; Chevron, 11bbls; ERL, 75 barrels; TotalEnergies, 47bbls, as First Energy spilled two barrels. Also, Platform reported one barrel; Midwestern, 19bbls; Neconde, 23bbls; Aitei E&P, 244bbls; ND West, 71bbls; ESSO, 27bbls; and NewCross E&P, one barrel. The NOSDRA’s data showed that SPDC reported a total of 147 spills in the year; NAOC ,106 spills; MPN, 30; Heritage, 19; NPDC, 11; Eroton E&P, 11; Seplat, 11; Chevron, 10; ERL, 7; TotalEnergies, 6; First, 4.

Exxon Inks India Offshore Exploration Deal With ONGC -U.S. supermajor ExxonMobil and Indian state-owned company Oil and Natural Gas Corporation (ONGC) have signed a Heads of Agreement for deepwater exploration on the East and West coasts of India.The Heads of Agreement document was signed by India’s Secretary of the Ministry of Petroleum & Natural Gas Shri Pankaj Jain on August 17, 2022, as well as the Director of Exploration at ONGC Shri Rajesh Kumar Srivastava and the CEO and Lead Country Manager for ExxonMobil India Monte Dobson.The collaboration areas focus on the Krishna Godavari and Cauvery Basins in the eastern offshore and the Kutch-Mumbai region in the western offshore.There has been a scientific exchange of exploration data in the last few years, which has led to this partnership. Collaboration between ONGC and ExxonMobil will be a strategic fit where ONGC’s knowledge and experience in these areas will be coupled with ExxonMobil’s global insights.“Partnerships between a National Oil Company like ONGC and an International Oil Company like ExxonMobil will bring tangible benefits in the entire energy value chain and open new vistas to Exploration & Production paradigm. This collaboration will boost our confidence in going further ahead in deepwater exploration on the east coast of India where the potential is quite significant,” Petroleum Secretary Shri Pankaj Jain said.

Street protests erupt across Bangladesh over fuel price hikes - Unprecedented fuel price increases announced on August 5—the highest in Bangladeshi history—have triggered nationwide protests by workers, students and the poor against the Awami League-led government. The price of petrol was increased by nearly 52 percent per litre, from 86 taka ($US 91 cents) to 130 taka ($US1.37), with diesel and kerosene prices rising by 42.5 percent. The price hikes, like those in many other countries, are a direct result of the US-NATO proxy war in Ukraine and the impact of the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic as workers and the poor are already struggling to deal with declining living conditions. According to media reports, protests erupted in Dhaka, the national capital, and other major cities, beginning the day after the price rises. Motorbike users and transport workers staged street demonstrations, chanting slogans against Prime Minister Sheik Hasina and demanding her government lower the prices. Mohammad Nurul Islam, a truck driver who transports vegetables, spoke to the BBC while queuing for petrol. “When I go to the market, I can’t buy enough food for my family. If the price of fuel keeps increasing like this, I won’t be able to look after my parents or send my children to school. If I lose my job, I might have to start begging in the street,” he said. One protester, Homammed Shajahan, who hires vans for a living, told Al Jazeera: “No one is renting our vans now because it costs more. It is really hard on us. See all the drivers are sitting idle. We cannot understand what the government is doing,” he said. The fuel price increases have driven up the cost of other essentials as well as bus and other transport fares. The New Indian Express reported on August 13 spiralling prices for 25 out of 26 basic items. Over the past month, the cost of rice has risen by 22 percent, farm-grown chickens 45 percent, onions 43 percent, eggs 20 percent and fish by 10 percent. Mamunur Rashid, an office janitor in Dhaka and with a family of six, told the newspaper that he was previously able to eat fish three times a week, but “now I only eat it once.”

Oil refiners in Asia's economic powerhouses aren't snapping up extra crude even with prices below $100 a barrel as inflation bites - Asian oil refiners are getting choosier about where they get their crude from, as inflation picks up across the supply chain, experts told Insider. State-owned energy giant Saudi Aramco told at least four North Asian buyers that it will supply full contract volumes of oil in September, sources with knowledge of the matter told Reuters. When an exporter allocates the full volume of a contract, traders usually interpret that as supply being roughly in line with demand. A cut in the allocation would signal a drop in demand, while an increase would reflect an improvement.The oil price has fallen below $100 a barrel and is around 30% below the multi-year highs of early March, right after Russia invaded Ukraine.But this is the second month in a row that Aramco has allotted the full amount to its North Asian customers, which include China, suggesting any tightness in the market may be easing.Data last month showed Russia's oil exports to China and India were 30% below their wartime peak, as buyers in the two countries reeled in their purchases. "Crude demand is clearly weakening as widespread inflation leads to further declines in purchasing power for Asian buyers," Ed Moya, senior analyst at OANDA said in response to Saudi Aramco allocating the full amount of crude. Saudi Arabia raised prices for Asian buyers to near record highs for August deliveries, reflecting some of the squeeze on supply as producers everywhere rush to fill any gaps left by a dropoff in Russian exports after Western sanctions. As refiners face lower margins for products such as gasoline, diesel and jet fuel, they're getting choosier about where they get their crude. Reports this week showed Asian buyers are snapping up cheap US crude as traditional Middle Eastern blends are starting to look a little pricier by comparison.South Korea and Indian refiners purchased about 16 million barrels of US crude so far this month, roughly double what they bought the previous month. Asian oil demand ramped up after Russia invaded Ukraine with countries like China and India taking advantage of super-cheap Russian exports that had fallen out of favor with lifelong European customers. But this has in turn raised the value of Russia's oil and buyers are once again in search of a better deal elsewhere. In mid-July, a surge in China's oil imports put Saudi Arabia on track to reach its highest level of total exports since April 2020, as China's COVID-19 measures began to ease. But with strict restrictions back in play, with millions under lockdown, it is taking denting crude demand together with inflationary pressures. "A big driver for Asian crude demand is the outlook for China and that is complicated given President Xi is sticking to his COVID strategy," Moya said.

Jordan launches probe into oil spill off southern coast - Jordanian authorities have launched probe into a vessel after it allegedly caused an oil spill on Sunday off the kingdom's southern coast, Trend reports citing Xinhua.Local authorities are working to contain the oil spill off the coast of the Aqaba container terminal, Jordan's only container port, Nidal Majali, an official with Jordan's Aqaba Special Economic Zone Authority, was quoted as saying by the state-run Petra news agency.The clean-up is expected to be finished in a few hours, Petra reported, without giving further details. The oil spill, which covered an area of 700 square meters, polluted some coral reefs and damaged equipment of several diving centers, local media reported.

Saudi Aramco profit surges 90% in second quarter amid energy price boom - Saudi oil giant Aramco reported a stunning 90% surge in second quarter net income and record half year results on Sunday, as high oil prices continue to drive historic windfalls for "Big Oil." Aramco said strong market conditions helped to push its second quarter net income to $48.4 billion, up from $25.5 billion a year earlier. The result easily beat analysts estimates of $46.2 billion. "Our record second-quarter results reflect increasing demand for our products — particularly as a low-cost producer with one of the lowest upstream carbon intensities in the industry," Aramco President and CEO Amin Nasser said. Aramco said half year net income soared to $87.9 billion, easily outpacing the largest listed oil majors, including Exxonmobil, Chevron and BP and other "Big Oil" companies, which are all benefiting from a commodity price boom. Oil prices surged above $130 dollars a barrel earlier this year, as the global energy crisis, made worse by supply disruptions stemming from Russia's invasion of Ukraine, roiled global markets and contributed to decades high inflation. "While global market volatility and economic uncertainty remain, events during the first half of this year support our view that ongoing investment in our industry is essential — both to help ensure markets remain well supplied and to facilitate an orderly energy transition," Nasser added. Aramco said it expects the post-pandemic recovery in oil demand to continue for the rest of the decade, despite what it called "downward economic pressures on short-term global forecasts." The blowout results are also a major windfall for the Saudi Arabian government, which relies heavily on its Aramco dividend to fund government expenditure. The Kingdom reported a $21 billion budget surplus in the second quarter. Aramco said it would maintain its dividend payout of $18.8 billion in the third quarter, covered by a 53% increase in free cash flow to $34.6 billion. Aramco is using its major gains to invest in its own production capabilities in both hydrocarbons and renewables, while also paying down debt. "We are progressing the largest capital program in our history, and our approach is to invest in the reliable energy and petrochemicals that the world needs, while developing lower-carbon solutions that can contribute to the broader energy transition," the company said. Aramco said it achieved total hydrocarbon production of 13.6 million barrels of oil equivalent per day in the second quarter, and was working to boost capacity from 12 million barrels of oil per day to 13 million barrels of oil per day by 2027.

Libya's crude oil production surpasses 1.2 million bpd - Libya's production of crude oil hit one million and 211 thousand barrels per day on Tuesday, the National Oil Corporation confirms. Earlier, the NOC Chairman Farhat bin Qadara attended a meeting to follow up on the implementation of the extraordinary budget of the state-run company, in the presence of Prime Minister Abdul Hamid Dbeibah. The PM revealed during the meeting a medium-term action plan extending from three to five years, in which all companies present their projects aimed at increasing production rates to two million barrels per day. Bin Qadara had confirmed earlier that increasing production levels is the main target of his team since taking over the NOC's management last month.

OPEC not to blame for soaring inflation, new chief says, citing underinvestment in oil and gas - New OPEC Secretary-General Haitham Al Ghais said Wednesday that the influential producer group is not to blame for soaring inflation, pointing the finger instead at chronic underinvestment in the oil and gas industry. "OPEC is not behind this price increase," Al Ghais told CNBC's Hadley Gamble. "There are other factors beyond OPEC that are really behind the spike we have seen in gas [and] in oil. And again, I think in a nutshell, for me, it is underinvestment — chronic underinvestment," he added. "This is the harsh reality that people have to wake up to and policymakers have to wake up to. Once that is realized I think then we can start to think of a solution here. And the solution is very clear. OPEC has a solution: invest, invest, invest," Al Ghais said. Earlier this year, Kuwait's Al Ghais was appointed for a three-year term as OPEC's secretary general. He succeeds Nigerian oil industry veteran Mohammad Barkindo, who died at the age of 63 last month just days before he was due to step down from the organization. The International Energy Agency said in June that global energy investment was on track to increase by 8% this year to reach $2.4 trillion, with most of the projected rise coming mainly in clean energy. It described the findings as "encouraging" but warned investment levels were still far from enough to tackle the multiple dimensions of the energy crisis. For oil and gas, the IEA said investment jumped 10% from last year but remains "well below" 2019 levels. It said today's high fossil fuel prices provided "a once-in-a-generation opportunity" for oil and gas-dependent economies to undergo a much-needed transformation. The IEA has previously said investors should not fund new oil, gas and coal supply projects if the world is to reach net-zero emissions by the middle of the century. To be sure, the burning of fossil fuels, such as oil, gas and coal, is the chief driver of the climate emergency. U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres warned in April that it is "moral and economic madness" to fund new fossil fuel projects.

OPEC Chief sees high risk of oil squeeze amid bullish demand - Global oil markets face a high risk of a supply squeeze this year as demand remains resilient and spare production capacity dwindles, the new head of OPEC said. Fears over slowing consumption in China and the wider world - which have pushed crude prices 16% lower this month - have been exaggerated, OPEC Secretary-General Haitham Al-Ghais said. At the same time, producers in the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and beyond are running out of extra supplies they can bring to market, Al-Ghais said. "We are running on thin ice, if I may use that term, because spare capacity is becoming scarce," Al-Ghais said. "The likelihood of a squeeze is there." International oil prices have retreated to near $90 a barrel amid signs of a slowing economy in China - where fuel use slumped to a two-year low in July - and a lackluster holiday driving season in the US. Still, the OPEC chief remains confident that world oil demand will increase by almost 3 million barrels a day this year, bolstered by China's return from Covid-related lockdowns. "China is still a source of phenomenal growth," he said. "We haven't seen China open up exactly -- there's a strict Covid Zero policy -- I think that will have an impact when China gets back to full steam."

"Running On Thin Ice": OPEC Head Warns Of Oil Squeeze - Crude oil prices have slumped to six-month lows, driven by a mounting wall of worries: US recession, China's zero-Covid policy and real estate sector implosion, Russian production recovering, US SPR releases, and the possibility of a nuclear agreement between Iran, the EU, and the US that could unleash new supplies into global markets. On Wednesday morning, the October contract of Brent on the Intercontinental Exchange tagged a six-month low of $91.58 a barrel while the new head of OPEC offered a sobering reality that global oil markets face an increased risk of a supply squeeze due to declining spare production capacity. OPEC Secretary-General Haitham Al-Ghais sat down with Bloomberg Televisionand said speculation fears over slowing consumption in China and the rest of the world had been greatly exaggerated. Al-Ghais said producers in OPEC are nearing the upper limits of additional supplies they can deliver to the market: "We are running on thin ice, if I may use that term, because spare capacity is becoming scarce. The likelihood of a squeeze is there." None of this should come as a surprise to readers, as we pointed out in June that WSJ's energy correspondent Summer Said that Saudi Arabia's production stands around 10.5 million bpd and has a production capacity ceiling of 12 million bpd. That means the potential output increase is only 1.5 million bpd. And another million bpd in five years. In other words, the Kingdom's ability to increase spare capacity appears limited. And here's where things get interesting: Al-Ghais remains confident global oil demand will increase by 3 million barrels per day as China reopens from Covid-related lockdowns. "China is still a source of phenomenal growth," he said. "We haven't seen China open up exactly -- there's a strict Covid Zero policy -- I think that will have an impact when China gets back to full steam." As explained by the OPEC head, the reason for a production capacity ceiling is that "chronic underinvestment for several years is really what's taken us to where we are today." On the subject of additional flows from Iran, he said that as long as they are released orderly, global oil demand will absorb those supplies. Ahead of the next OPEC+ meeting on Sept. 5, Al-Ghais said it's still too early what the 23-nation group will agree on: "We've demonstrated time and time again in the past that we're willing to do whatever it takes to do what the market really requires," Al-Ghais said. So the takeaway here is more confirmation that spare production capacity and rising global fossil fuel demand could squeeze markets when China reopens.

Oil Prices Plunge 5% As China's Economy Slows and Iran Talks Progress -- Global oil prices tumbled Monday after data showed China's economic engine sputtered in June and traders weighed the prospect of an increase in Iranian production.Both Brent and WTI crude, the international and US benchmark oil prices, dropped almost 5% as market participants bet China's demand for energy will be lower than previously expected.Brent was down 4.88% to $93.36 a barrel as of 7.17 a.m. ET, to trade at around its lowest level since February. WTI was 4.78% lower at $87.62 a barrel, around its lowest since January.Output at China's factories increased 3.8% in July, a slowdown from June's 3.9% rate and well below analysts' expectations, data showed overnight. Retail sales growth also cooled and youth unemployment hit a record high.China's central bank lowered two key interest rates Monday, as Beijing tries to boost an economy struggling under the weight of a property crisis and a strict zero-COVID policy.Bloomberg estimated that China's oil demand fell 9.7% in July, data that analysts said contributed to the sell-off on Monday."Crude oil futures trade lower after China's economic recovery unexpectedly weakened in July on renewed COVID lockdowns and after data from Bloomberg showed an apparent 10% year-on-year drop in oil demand last month," Saxo Bank commodities strategist Ole Hansen said. Hansen said signs of progress on the European Union's proposal to revive the Iran nuclear deal, which would increase output from the Middle Eastern country, was also driving prices lower. The EU has been pushing to save the deal, and Iran said it would lay out its position on the bloc's latest proposal by Monday night. Iran said it is keen to move forward as long as the US is realistic and flexible, according to reports.Oil prices have been on a wild ride in 2022, and Brent has soared as high as $140 a barrel after Russia invaded Ukraine in late February. High oil prices caused US gasoline to top $5 a gallon in June.Yet fears of a global recession have caused oil prices to fall sharply in recent weeks, with market participants particularly focused on Chinese and US demand.

WTI Slides Below $90 on Weak China Data, Iran Nuclear Talks - Oil futures nearest delivery registered sharp losses on Monday, although all petroleum contacts trimmed a portion of earlier declines. This came after bearish macroeconomic data out of China prompted a reassessment of Asian demand growth for the second half of the year, while tentative signs of a breakthrough in Iranian nuclear talks could lead to an end of Western sanctions on the country's crude-oil exports. After 17 months of back-and-forth diplomatic talks, U.S. and European negotiators appear to be closing in on some sort of resolution to Iran's nuclear deal that could see a revival of the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian said Tehran will deliver its final response to Brussels no later than midnight Monday, adding that "We are looking for a good, stable and strong agreement, but if the other party talks about plan B, we also have plan B," he warned, according to Iranian journalist Sarah Massoumi. While Iran doesn't publish figures for oil production or exports, analysts estimate that it already sells as much as 1 million bpd to China and other Asian countries that is being re-branded and disguised as oil sold by the third country. The government's budget plan forecasts daily sales of 1.4 million bpd for the year through March 2023 despite Western sanctions. On the macroeconomic front, Chinese industrial production and retail sales badly missed expectations in July, showing a protracted demand weakness despite the government's efforts to shore up growth. Battered by COVID-19 lockdowns, China's industrial output rose 3.8% from a year ago, lower than June's 3.9% and missing economists' forecast of a 4.3% increase. Oil refining also fell as plants shut for maintenance. Retail sales also grew at a much slower-than-expected pace of 2.7%, compared with expectations for a 5% advance, pointing to weakness in China's consumer spending. The overall jobless rate fell to 5.4% from 5.5%, but the unemployment rate among 16- to 24-year-olds has jumped to 19.9% -- the highest on record. Furthermore, data also showed that China's apparent oil demand last month was about 10% lower year-on-year. On a session, nearby-month delivery West Texas Intermediate fell $2.68 to $89.41 per barrel (bbl), and the ICE Brent contract for October delivery dropped $3.05 to $95.10 per bbl. NYMEX September RBOB declined 9.43 cents to $2.9517 per gallon, while the NYMEX September ULSD contract plummeted 7.75 cents to $3.4403 per gallon.

China’s surprise rate cut, economic slowdown send oil prices plunging - China’s central bank unexpectedly slashed rates Monday after data showed economic activity slowed broadly in July — including consumer spending and factory output — sending oil prices down sharply and reigniting concerns of a global downturn.The underwhelming performance signaled that the recovery is tapering off amid an array of economic challenges, including continuing fallout from the nation’s “zero covid” policy and real estate crisis. But the specter of falling demand from the world’s second-largest economy alarmed energy markets. Oil prices slid more than 4.6 percent, pushing West Texas Intermediate crude to $88 a barrel.Much like the conflicting priorities that central bankers in other countries are facing, Chinese policymakers are closely tracking inflation and rising debt levels. But a sputtering domestic economy appeared to take priority, prompting the People’s Bank of China to cut its medium-term lending rate to 2.75 percent, or 10 basis points, for its first reduction since January.The central bank “seems to have decided it now has a more pressing problem,” said Julian Evans-Pritchard, an economist who covers China for the economic research firm Capital Economics. The July data shows lackluster economic momentum and a slowdown in credit growth, “which has been less responsive to policy easing than during previous economic downturns. Figures for both retail sales and industrial production grew last month compared with the same month last year, rising 2.7 percent and 3.8 percent, respectively. But they fell well short of forecasts of 5 percent and 4.6 percent growth, and both metrics slowed compared with increases recorded in June, according to the National Bureau of Statistics.The developments threw Wall Street into a sour mood before stocks rallied. By the closing bell, the Dow Jones industrial average gained more than 151 points or 0.4 percent, to close at 33,912. The broader S&P 500 index rose 17 points, or 0.4 percent, to end at 4,297, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq increased nearly 81 points, or 0.6 percent, to settle just above 13,128.China's central bank cut key lending rates in a surprise move on Aug. 15 to revive demand as data showed the economy unexpectedly slowing in July. (Video: Reuters)“The momentum of economic recovery has slowed,” government spokesman, Fu Linghui, said during a news conference, the Associated Press reported. “More efforts are needed to consolidate the foundation of economic recovery.”For months, a large contingent of Chinese home buyers have refused to pay mortgages on properties they’ve bought but that developers have yet to finish, leading to sinking real estate values. The boycotts, which are tied to more than 100 delayed projects, have raised concerns the property market could collapse, a scenario that would undermine the nation’s financial system and have ripple effects for the global economy. For more than a decade, construction and real estate have helped fuel China’s astounding economic growth and bolstered an emerging middle class, underscoring the significance of the mortgage crisis and the damage the unraveling crisis could unleash.The economic slowdown is more fallout from Beijing’s efforts to contain coronavirus infections. Last year, China more than regained pre-pandemic economic activity, leading major economies in the recovery from the public health crisis, despite limitations on travel and the lower efficacy rates of the country’s coronavirus vaccines. But the rebound appears to have been short-lived.

Oil prices fall as recession fears, Iran production weigh on demand outlook - Oil prices have extended losses after weak US and Chinese data spurred fresh concerns about a potential global recession that could hit energy demand. Brent crude futures fell 90 cents, or 1 percent, to $94.20 a barrel by 00:03 GMT. WTI crude futures fell 81 cents, or 0.9 percent, to $88.60 a barrel. Oil futures fell about 3 percent during the previous session as demand expectations are lowered in light of a string of soft economic indicators in major economies. Signs that Iran is moving towards a nuclear deal added to the downward pressure on prices, with an agreement seen allowing the country to restart sales into the world market. Analysts said Tehran could provide 2.5 million barrels a day, giving a much-needed shot in the arm to supplies, which have been hammered by sanctions on Russia in response to its attacks on Ukraine. Libya has also boosted production, helping prices drop to six-month lows and wiping out the gains seen after the Ukraine conflict started. But analysts warned that there might still be some way to go on an Iran agreement owing to upcoming US elections. "A deal with Iran would likely not be popular with US voters and so is hard to envisage before the November mid-terms," said National Australia Bank's Ray Attrill. "Markets are currently prone to optimism, though, and hopes for a deal... have added to downward pressure on oil prices." Iran responded to the European Union's "final" draft text to save a 2015 nuclear deal on Monday, an EU official said, but provided no details on Iran's response to the text. The Iranian foreign minister called on the United States to show flexibility to resolve three remaining issues. China's central bank cut lending rates to revive demand as data showed the economy slowing unexpectedly in July, with factory and retail activity squeezed by Beijing's zero-Covid policy and a property crisis. China's fuel product exports will rebound in August to near the highest for the year so far after Beijing issued more quotas in June and July, although broader curbs are set to cap shipments at seven-year lows for 2022, analysts and traders said. In the United States, total output in the major US shale oil basins will rise to 9.049 million bpd in September, the highest since March 2020, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said in its productivity report on Monday.

Brent, WTI Plunge 3% on Progress in US-Iran Nuclear Talks -- West Texas Intermediate futures settled lower for the third consecutive session on Tuesday amid signs of progress towards reviving a 2015 nuclear accord with Iran after European and U.S. diplomats signaled compromise over the lifting of sanctions on more than a million barrels of Iranian crude oil, while traders await the release of weekly inventory data in the United States with expectations for commercial crude stockpiles to have sustained a building pattern through the second week of August. Tuesday's lower settlements follow media reports pointing to an apparent breakthrough in Iranian nuclear talks after European diplomats confirmed this morning the receipt of an official response from Tehran, calling it a constructive proposal. The same sentiment was echoed today by U.S. State Department spokesperson Ned Price who said the White House is carefully studying the proposal and would continue to consult with EU partners on the next step. Last week, a State Department spokesperson hinted the White House was "ready to quickly conclude a deal on the basis of the EU's proposals." Arguably, Iran sells as much as 1 million bpd to China and other Asian countries with some of those exports rebranded and disguised as oil sold by a third country. The government's budget plan forecasts daily sales of 1.4 million bpd for the year through March 2023 despite Western sanctions. The European Union is clearly more interested in reaching a quick deal with Tehran than other parties to the accord, given that sanctions on Russian seaborne crude oil exports take effect in February 2023. Wire services suggest Iran is seeking some sort of guarantee from the Biden Administration that the country would be compensated should a future U.S. president pull out of the agreement. Mohammad Marandi, an adviser to the Iranian negotiating team at talks on the deal in Vienna, said on Tuesday, "The main issue facing the revival of the deal is the guarantees requested from the Iranian side ensuring Iran will be compensated in case future US administrations decide to withdraw again from the deal and while no real solution has been put forth." Al Jazeera, citing sources familiar with Iranian negotiators, this morning reported Tehran's written response to the U.S. proposal did not include demands from Tehran to remove the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps from the U.S. list of foreign terrorist organizations and for the International Atomic Energy Agency to drop investigations into undeclared nuclear sites. Those two demands from Tehran had previously held back a revival of the 2015 nuclear accord, with Washington refusing both demands and EU participating countries unwilling to relent on the demand for IAEA inspections. NYMEX September West Texas Intermediate fell $2.88 to a nearly seven-month low settlement on the spot continuous chart at $86.53 bbl, and ICE October Brent futures settled down $2.76 at a $92.34 bbl six-month low on the spot chart. NYMEX September RBOB fell 5.1 cents to $2.9007 gallon, while the NYMEX September ULSD contract advanced 3.99 cents to $3.4802 gallon.

Oil prices rise US$1 after drop in U.S. stockpiles -- Oil prices rose over $1 on Wednesday, rebounding from six-month lows hit the previous day, as an unexpectedly large drop in U.S. oil and gasoline stocks reminded investors that demand remains firm, if overshadowed by the prospect of a global recession. Brent crude futures were last up 82 cents, or 0.9%, to $93.16 a barrel by 0630 GMT. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures also rose 85 cents, or 1%, to $87.38 a barrel. The contracts slumped about 3% on Tuesday as weak U.S. housing starts data spurred concerns about a potential global recession. "A drawdown of U.S. gasoline stockpiles for a second straight week has reassured investors that demand is resilient, prompting buys," "Still, the oil market is expected to stay under pressure, with fairly high volatility, due to worries over a potential global recession," U.S. crude and fuel stocks fell in the latest week, according to market sources citing American Petroleum Institute figures on Tuesday. Crude stocks declined by about 448,000 barrels for the week ended Aug. 12. Gasoline inventories fell by about 4.5 million barrels, while distillate stocks were down by about 759,000 barrels, according to the sources. An extended Reuters poll showed on Tuesday that crude inventories probably dropped by around 300,000 barrels last week and gasoline stockpiles likely fell 1.1 million barrels, while distillate inventories rose. "There are a number of bearish factors and downside risks for oil at the moment, from the threat of recession to the poor data in China and the possibility of a nuclear deal between the U.S. and Iran," Oil supply could rise if talks to revive Iran's 2015 nuclear deal with world powers are successful, which would remove sanctions on Iranian oil exports, analysts said. The European Union and United States said on Tuesday they were studying Iran's response to what the EU has called its "final" proposal to save the deal after Tehran called on Washington to show flexibility. "When WTI prices were well north of $100, the revival of the Iranian nuclear agreement looked like a potentially winning mid-term issue but it appears to be a less compelling case in the current price and security context," "We would note that the Europeans are likely more incentivised to secure a deal given the looming supply shortage the continent faces when Russian sanctions come on in December." The EU will stop buying all Russian crude oil delivered by sea from early December and ban all Russian refined products two months later as part of sanctions imposed over Moscow's invasion of Ukraine.

WTI Spikes After Huge Crude Inventory Draw, US Crude Exports Hit Record High -- Despite hopes of an imminent Iran nuke deal (and the subsequent supply), oil prices are higher this morning after the new head of OPEC said gobal oil markets face a high risk of a supply squeeze this year as demand remains resilient and spare production capacity dwindles. “We are running on thin ice, if I may use that term, because spare capacity is becoming scarce,” OPEC Secretary-General Haitham Al-Ghais said. “The likelihood of a squeeze is there.” In the meantime, all eyes are on the official US data for signs of lagging demand (or not as gas prices have dropped). DOE:

• Crude -7.06mm - biggest draw since April 2022
• Cushing +192k
• Gasoline -4.64mm
• Distillates +766k

After 2 weeks of builds, US crude stocks crashed over 7 million barrels last week - the biggest draw since April. Cushing inventories rose for the 7th straight week and gasoline stocks also tumbled... The headline draw in crude stockpiles was boosted by the withdrawal of another 3.4 million barrels from the SPR last week. Total nationwide oil inventories — including commercial stockpiles and oil held in the SPR — fell by 10.46 million barrels in the week to August 12. That’s the biggest total crude draw since May. Additionally, US crude exports set a new record at 5M b/d. That’s from all the replacing that European refiners have been making to offset Russian oil. Gasoline demand rose once again last week and is now back near the year's highs... US crude production dropped modestly last week as the rig count has stabilized... WTI had rallied up to around $88 ahead of the official data and surged higher on the big draw...Graphics Source: Bloomberg

Oil Rallies as Inventories Fall; Gasoline Demand Recovers -- After volatile trading for most of the session, oil futures settled Wednesday with solid gains supported by a steep drop in U.S. commercial crude and gasoline inventories along with a rebound in gasoline demand that climbed to the highest level since the week leading up to the July 4th holiday in a sign that falling prices at the gas pump incentivized Americans to take on late-summer road trips. Other economic indicators released Wednesday also point to steady consumer demand for purchases at stores, online and restaurants, with core retail sales, which excludes cars and gasoline, rising 0.7% in July, matching the June increase, the Commerce Department said Wednesday. The incoming data suggests Americans are maintaining their spending habits despite the highest inflation in nearly four decades. Against this backdrop, the recent demand figures published by the U.S. Energy Information Administration look particularly encouraging for the final weeks of summer, showing weekly consumption climbing to the second highest rate this year at 9.348 million barrels per day (bpd), up 225,000 bpd or 2.4% from the previous week. On a four-week average basis, gasoline demand in the United States was still some 4.2% below last year's four-week average of 9.466 million bpd. The late-summer surge in gasoline demand runs counter to the weakness during the second half of June after the U.S. retail gasoline average topped $5 gallon for the first time on record. On Monday, Aug. 15, the Department of Transportation reported vehicle miles traveled on U.S. roads were down 4.8 billion miles or 1.7% in June compared with year prior. Since mid-June, retail gasoline prices have declined for nine consecutive weeks through Monday according to EIA data, falling below $4 gallon for the first time since the final week of February. The increase in gasoline consumption, along with strong exports at 902,000 bpd during the second week of August, 190,000 bpd above the three-year average, led to a 4.6-million-barrel (bbl) drawdown in gasoline stocks to 215.7 million bbl. Analysts expected gasoline inventories to have decreased by 900,000 bbl. U.S. commercial crude oil inventories fell 7.1 million bbl last week to 425 million bbl and are now about 6% below the five-year average, with the decline following an increase in commercial reserves of more than 9 million bbl since the final week of July. The sizable drawdown was realized as U.S. crude exports more than doubled from the previous week to a record high 5 million bpd during the week ended Aug. 12 while domestic crude production fell 100,000 bpd to 12.1 million bpd. A 3.4-million-bbl drawdown from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve was also the smallest draw from emergency reserves since late April. At the same time, the central bank indicated it could soon slow the speed of monetary tightening, while also acknowledging the vulnerable state of the economy and risk to the downside for economic growth. Following the minutes release, CME FedWatch Tool showed the probability for a 50-basis-point rate hike in September increased to almost 60% compared with 38.5% for a larger 75-basis-point hike. At settlement, NYMEX September West Texas Intermediate advanced $1.58 to $88.11 bbl, while ICE October Brent futures gained $1.31 to $93.65 bbl. NYMEX September RBOB gained 3.38 cents to $2.9345 gallon, while the NYMEX September ULSD contract rallied 13.72 cents to $3.6174 gallon.

Oil rises as US crude stocks data, tight supply from Russia raise concerns (Reuters) -Oil prices rose on Thursday as robust U.S. fuel consumption data and expected falls in Russian supply late in the year offset concerns that a possible looming recession could undercut demand. Brent crude futures climbed $1.43, or 1.5%, to $95.08 a barrel by 0900 GMT. U.S. crude futures gained $1.15, or 1.3%, to $89.26 a barrel. Prices rose more than 1% during the previous session, although Brent at one point fell to its lowest since February. Futures have fallen over the past few months, as investors have pored over economic data that has spurred concerns about a potential recession that could hurt energy demand. British consumer price inflation jumped to 10.1% in July, its highest since February 1982, intensifying a squeeze on households. China's refining output remained lacklustre in July as strict COVID-19 lockdowns and fuel export controls curbed production. Supporting prices, U.S. crude stocks fell by 7.1 million barrels in the week to Aug. 12, Energy Information Administration (EIA) data showed, against expectations for a 275,000-barrel drop, as exports hit 5 million barrels per day (bpd), the highest on record. Bans by the European Union on Russian seaborne crude in December and on products imports early next year could dramatically tighten supply and drive up prices, analysts warn. "The EU embargoes will force Russia to shut in around 1.6 million barrels per day (bpd) of output by year-end, rising to 2 million bpd in 2023," consultancy BCA research said in a note. "EU embargoes on Russian oil imports will significantly tighten markets and lift Brent to $119 a barrel by year-end." For now, however, Russia has started to gradually increase oil production after sanctions-related curbs and as Asian buyers have increased purchases, leading Moscow to raise its forecasts for output and exports until the end of 2025, an economy ministry document reviewed by Reuters showed. Russia's earnings from energy exports are expected to rise 38% this year partly due to higher oil export volumes, according to the document, in a sign that supply from the country has not been affected as much as markets originally had expected.

Oil Rises Again as Strong US Demand Eases Recession Fears - Oil rose for a second day as a bullish US stockpile report blunted concerns over the potential effects of an economic slowdown. West Texas Intermediate rallied above $90 a barrel after this week’s Energy Information Administration report offset concerns over a potential recession wrecking the oil market. Geopolitical tremors accelerated the rally as Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said he sees no end to the war without troop withdrawals during a meeting with Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. The EIA report surprised markets by signaling “the fundamentals may not be as negative to crude as thought just a week ago,” said Dennis Kissler, senior vice president of trading at BOK Financial. “However, traders are still worried about the overall economic outlook going forward, it’s keeping a very nervous trade to the futures market.” Prices are fluctuating partially because of declining market liquidity. Aggregate open interest over WTI contracts yesterday was the lowest since January 2015 at 1.54 million contracts. Crude is trading near the lowest level in more than six months after giving up the gains made since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on fears of a global economic slowdown. Prices were even more hampered by the potential of a renewed Iran nuclear deal. The deal could bring back hundreds of thousands of barrels of Iranian crude could come back online per day once a deal is signed, bringing relief to a market starved for crude. WTI for September delivery rose $2.39 to settle at $90.50 in New York. Brent for October settlement climbed $2.94 to settle at $96.59 a barrel. European markets, which have been stretched due to the displacement of Russian barrels, will suffer additional tightness as Shell cuts its production at the biggest German refinery. The Rhineland oil refinery capacity was reduced due to low Rhine water levels. US crude exports reached 5 million barrels a day last week, surpassing a high set barely a month ago, EIA data show. The four-week average of gasoline supplied -- a proxy for demand -- rose to about 9.1 million barrels a day, coinciding with the longest streak of declines in pump prices since 2018.

Oil Futures Gain as Russia Halts Gas Exports to Europe -- Oil futures nearest delivery reversed higher in afternoon trade Friday following reports Gazprom, Russia's state-owned energy giant, plans to halt exports of natural gas into European Union starting Aug. 31 in a move that sent European natural gas prices to record-highs amid heightened concern over a deepening energy crisis this winter. Natural gas flows through the Nord Stream pipeline from Western Siberia to Europe will be closed for three days at the end of the month for maintenance, according to Gazprom's statement released Friday afternoon. The company cited "complex routine maintenance" of a single functioning turbine at the Portovaya compressor station as the reason behind the closure. Gas futures at Dutch Title Transfer Facility rose as much as 9% after the announcement as traders remain skeptical over Russia's further moves over the controversial pipeline after reducing flows to just 20% of capacity this month. Gas prices posted the longest run of weekly gains this year on Friday, intensifying the pain for industries and households, and threatening to push economies into recession. Earlier in the session, oil futures came under heavy selling pressure amid reports that multilateral talks aimed at reviving the 2015 nuclear accord with Iran entered its final stage this week after European Union sent a final draft proposal to Tehran and have received an official response. While details of the response have not been made public, Iran is said to have abandoned some of its core demands while requesting for certain guarantees from the U.S. and European Union that the deal would be not be broken again. Analysts are divided on how much oil Iran could bring to market in the short-term should sanctions be lifted since Iran doesn't publish figures for oil production or exports. Some analysts suggest the country still has the capacity to swiftly ramp up exports to its pre-2018 level of about 2 million barrels per day (bpd), while others suggest years of underinvestment and disrepair left room for the return of only a few hundred thousand at best. Underlining gains for the oil complex this week is weekly inventory data from the Energy Information Administration showing U.S crude oil exports hit 5 million bpd during the week-ended Aug. 12, the highest on record, according to the midweek data, with West Texas Intermediate trading at a steep discount to international benchmark Brent making purchases of U.S. crude more attractive to foreign buyers. Redirection of Russian crude flows from the European market could be one of the reasons behind the surge in crude-oil exports from the U.S. Gulf Coast. The strong pace of crude exports along with a surprise drop in U.S. oil production sent commercial crude oil stocks tumbling by 7.1 million barrels (bbl) during the week-ended Aug. 12, compared with expectations for inventories to rise by 100,000 bbl. Wednesday's inventory data was also supportive for the gasoline complex, showing demand for motor fuel climbed to the second highest rate this year at 9.348 million bpd, up 225,000 bpd or 2.4% from the previous week. On a four-week average basis, gasoline consumption was 4.2% below last year's four-week average of 9.466 million bpd. The recent demand figures might suggest that falling prices at the gas pump, down a ninth week per EIA data, has incentivized Americans to take late summer road trips. At settlement, NYMEX September West Texas Intermediate added 27 cents to $90.77 bbl, while ICE October Brent futures gained 13 cents to $96.72 bbl. NYMEX September RBOB decreased 0.86 cents to $3.0175 gallon, while the NYMEX September ULSD contract rose 5.08 cents to $3.7005 gallon.

Oil prices edge up, but suffer a loss for the week Natural-gas futures settle a fresh 14-year high Oil futures settled higher on Friday, but the potential for an Iranian nuclear deal that may lead to higher global supplies and the potential for a slowdown in energy demand kept prices lower for the week. Oil prices gave up early Friday declines, even with U.S. benchmark stock indexes lower as investors braced for more volatility amid concerns the Federal Reserve was far from done with interest rate increases. Much of the bearish pressure for oil this week came from the "dollar's hot streak, hitting one-month highs and gaining over 2.5% in the past 6 trading sessions," analysts at the Kansas City energy team at StoneX wrote in a Friday newsletter. Federal Reserve officials spoke of the need for further rate hikes and investors seemed to reassess Wednesday's minutes from the U.S. central bank's July meeting "as being more hawkish than before," they said. "It seems many officials are on board for another 50--75-point rate hike in September." Oil traders have fretted over the possibility of higher U.S. interest rates that could bring on a recession and cut demand for the commodity. Meanwhile, supporting a mixed price environment for oil, which rose Friday, but fell for the week, data Wednesday from the Energy Information Administration showed "robust demand, while Russia showed its robust ability to find new buyers" for its oil, Oil traders also kept an eye on developments tied to the Iran nuclear deal. A revival of the deal could lead the U.S. to lift sanctions on Iran which in turn would be allowed to contribute more oil to the global market. Elsewhere in energy trading, natural-gas futures finished higher after posting back-to-back losses. They topped Tuesday's settlement to mark a fresh 14-year high. Russia's state-owned energy exporter Gazprom said Friday that it would shut down the Nord Stream natural-gas pipeline to Germany for three days for maintenance later this month, according to The Wall Street Journal. Russian crude output holding up better than expected prompted Warren Patterson, head of commodities strategy at ING, to cut his oil forecasts in a note dated Friday titled "Sticky Russian oil output requires a crude rethink." ING's third and fourth-quarter Brent forecasts were cut from $118 a barrel and $125 a barrel to $100 and $97, respectively. ING's full-year 2023 Brent forecast has been reduced from $99 to $97, he said. "Since Russia's invasion of Ukraine, it has become more difficult to get transparency on Russian oil output with the government no longer publishing monthly data. However, the IEA estimates that Russian oil production was around 310Mbbls/d below prewar levels in July. The decline in output has been much more modest than many in the market were expecting, despite sanctions," said Patterson. "Stubborn Russian oil output and weaker than expected demand growth mean the oil market is likely to remain in surplus for the remainder of this year and into early next year, which should limit the upside in oil prices. Time spreads also point toward a looser market, with the backwardation in the prompt spreads narrowing significantly in recent weeks," he added.

Oil prices down 1.5% for the week on recession jitters --Oil prices steadied on Friday, but fell for the week on a stronger U.S. dollar and fears that an economic slowdown would weaken crude demand. Brent crude futures settled at $96.72 a barrel, gaining 13 cents. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude ended 27 cents higher at $90.77. Both benchmarks fell about 1.5% on the week. Oil briefly jumped in volatile trade on comments made by Richmond Federal Reserve President Thomas Barkin that the Fed would balance its rate hike path with uncertainty over any impact on the economy. But crude pared its gains as investor concerns about upcoming rate hikes settled back in. Strength in the U.S. dollar hit a five-week high, which also capped crude's gains as it make oil more expensive for buyers in other currencies. "Although the oil complex has been able to shrug off a strong dollar on any given session, extended strong dollar trends will pose a major headwind against sustainable oil price gains," In a sign of easing oil supply tightness, the price gap between prompt and second-month Brent futures has narrowed by about $5 a barrel since the end of July to under $1. The spread for WTI has shrunk to a 39-cent premium from a nearly $2 premium in late-July. Haitham Al Ghais, the new secretary general of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, told Reuters he was optimistic about oil demand into 2023. OPEC is keen to ensure Russia remains part of the OPEC+ group, Al Ghais said ahead of a Sept. 5 meeting. Supplies could tighten again when European buyers start seeking alternative supplies to replace Russian oil ahead of European Union sanctions that take effect from Dec. 5. "We calculate the EU will need to replace 1.2 million barrels per day of seaborne Russian crude imports with crude from other regions," consultancy FGE said in a note. Data earlier this week showed U.S. crude inventories fell sharply as world's top producer exported a record 5 million barrels of oil per day last week, with oil companies finding demand from European nations looking to replace Russian crude. However, the number of U.S. oil rigs, an early indicator of future supply, was unchanged at 601 this week, according to Baker Hughes Co, as energy companies slowly increase production to pre-pandemic levels with shale oil output in September expected to hit its highest since March 2020.

Saudi Arabia executions already nearly double from last year - — Saudi Arabia has executed 120 people in the first six months of 2022, according to a rights organization, nearly double the number put to death in all of last year despite its promises to reduce capital punishment. As early as 2018, Saudi Arabia’s de facto leader, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, spoke of curtailing the death penalty, one of a string of public promises made by the young prince as he ramped up efforts to modernize the kingdom. After a major drop in 2020, 65 people were put to death in 2021; then in just the first six months of this year, the number of executions nearly doubled. By June, the numbers for this year had exceeded those of 2020 and 2021 combined, according to a statement from the European Saudi Organization for Human Rights (ESOHR) sent to media Aug. 9. “If Saudi Arabia continues to execute people at the same pace during the second half of 2022, they will reach an unprecedented number of executions, exceeding the record high of 186 executions in 2019,” the report stated. Most of the executions in 2022 took place on one day in March when 81 men were put to death in the single largest mass execution in years. New York-based Human Rights Watch quoted activists as saying that 41 of those killed belonged to the Shiite sect of Islam, whose adherents are largely seen as heretics by many hard-line Sunni Muslims in Saudi Arabia. Shiites have long complained of marginalization in the country and are viewed with suspicion by many Sunnis, who often see them as sympathizers of rival Iran, the world’s largest Shiite country. The ESOHR found that in the March mass execution, which the group said was the largest in Saudi history, 58 of the 81 men were executed for nonlethal offenses, and 41 were executed for participation in pro-democracy protests. None of the bodies were returned to the families, the group added. Families typically push to retrieve bodies of those executed but are frequently faced with stonewalling from the government. One reason may be that public funerals could turn into protests or the graves could become rallying points. In a statement that announced the mass execution in March, the Interior Ministry said the order was to carry out death sentences for “those who had embraced deviant thought, and other deviant methods and beliefs.” It linked some of the men to terrorist activities. Last August, seven United Nations officials penned a letter to the Saudi government concerning the cases of two Shiite men, Mohammed al-Shakhouri and Asaad Shubbar, who had been sentenced to death. The letter — signed by the special rapporteur on extrajudicial, summary or arbitrary executions, among others — said the trials of the two men “did not meet due process guarantees and [were] for crimes which do not appear to meet the ‘most serious crimes’ threshold as required under international law.” The two men were part of March’s mass execution. The ESOHR said this decision “exemplifies the opacity in Saudi Arabia’s criminal justice system.” According to the ESOHR’s data, collated from government announcements, 72 of this year’s executions were for “discretionary offenses,” crimes not specified in Islamic law, despite promises by Mohammed to end the use of the death penalty for such offenses.

Turkey Strikes Northern Syria, Killing At Least 17, As Cross-Border Offensive Looms - -Tuesday into Wednesday has witnessed heavy fighting between Kurdish YPG and Turkish forces along the Syrian border town of Kobane, at a moment Turkish President Erdogan's planned large scale cross-border offensive looms. Already there are Turkish media reports claiming that a Turkish military convoy has entered Jarablus, northern Syria - with unverified social media photos circulating that purport to show convoys amassing.Turkish shelling of Syrian Kurdish positions has reportedly killed and wounded civilians including a 14-year old child. And a series of airstrikes have hit Syrian government border posts, killing 17. However, it's unclear how many among these were Syrian national troops, Kurdish militia fighters, or pro-government militia members who fight alongside the army."Seventeen fighters were killed in Turkish air strikes that hit several Syrian regime outposts... near the Turkish border," one pro-opposition war monitor told Middle East Eye. Turkish military officials have said they've killed five Kurdish militants in the fresh assault.Turkey's defense ministry said one of its soldiers was killed in a Kurdish counter-strike with artillery. A statement said that on the Syrian side of the border "Thirteen terrorists were neutralized" in "retaliation".A Syrian government statement said meanwhile that "Any attack on a military outpost run by our armed forces will be met with a direct and immediate response on all fronts," according to state-run SANA.So far throughout the war in Syria, Turkey has conducted three major cross border operations going back to 2016, in efforts to prevent any level of Kurdish autonomy from forming, as part of what it deems border stabilization efforts. At the same time it has long supported jihadist groups which seek to ethnically cleanse Kurds, while at the same time trying to topple the Syrian government under Bashar al-Assad. Over the period, Turkey has seized hundreds of kilometers of Syrian sovereign territory and has effectively pushed the de facto border demarcating control some 30km deep into Syria. The United States, which has limited forces on the ground (most estimates are between 1,000 to 2,000 special forces soldiers), has tended to stay out of Turkey's way, despite Kurds making up the bulk of the US-backed and trained Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). Poland is buying South Korean jets to replace aging Soviet fighters - On July 27, Poland signed one of its largest arms deals ever for more artillery, tanks, and aircraft to modernize its military amid heightened tensions in Europe.Warsaw's $14.5 billion deal with South Korea — the largest ever for South Korea's defense industry — includes 1,000 K2 Black Panther tanks, nearly 700 K9 self-propelled howitzers, and 48 FA-50 light c ombat aircraft.The size of the contract and Warsaw's decision to buy from anemerging military exporter also reflects thinking influenced by the fraught state of European geopolitics."The criminal assault carried out by the Russian Federation, targeting Ukraine, and the unpredictable nature of Putin means that we need to accelerate the equipment modernization even further," Polish Defense Minister Mariusz Błaszczak said in an interview with Polish outlet Defense 24.

Hopes Dim For 'Imminent' Nuclear Deal As US Blames Iran For Salman Rushdie Attack - Not for the first time, the past hours of optimistic reports surrounding a potential 'imminent' Iran nuclear deal appears to be premature as the Aug.15th EU deadline for Iran to accept the final text could come and go, given the latest statements out of the US administration:

• If Iran cannot accept a mutual return to JCPOA, US is fully prepared to continue vigorous enforcement of sanctions
• US will provide response on EU proposal to revive Iran nuclear deal privately to EU coordinator

There's clearly a threat of continued sanctions enforcement by the US here, signaling that even if Iran presents willingness to compromise, Washington might still not be ready to play ball. But the key plot twist within the last hour has centered on the US State Department's Ned Price for the first time referencing the Salman Rushdie assassination attempt in connection with a potential hold-up in implementing a final JCPOA deal...Ned Price: "It's no secret Iranian regime has been central to threats against #SalmanRushdie's life. We've heard Iran officials seek to incite violence... even recently with gloating that took place in aftermath of attack. It's absolutely outrageous, despicable‌ & intolerable." August 15, 2022 Rushdie, who was stabbed ten times on Friday by a New Jersey man with what appeared to be a motivation of religious extremism and terrorism, and is currently recovering in a New York hospital, has had a fatwa and bounty on his head from the Ayatollahs of Iran spanning back to 1989.

What Would Iran Deal Mean for Oil? A last-ditch attempt by Europe to revive the Iranian nuclear deal has stoked speculation that millions of barrels of oil are set to flood world markets. The return could be swift if Tehran’s previous comeback is any guide. Should an agreement materialize, Iran could ramp up sales within months, raising supply by hundreds of thousands of barrels a day before the end of the year, according to the International Energy Agency. That would help relieve a tight global market, which has been roiled by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. When sanctions were eased following the 2015 deal, Iran’s crude output was restored more quickly and more completely than analysts had predicted. With no evidence of damage to oil fields or facilities, that feat may be repeated. The Persian Gulf nation also has an estimated 100 million barrels of crude and condensate in storage that can be released to the market almost immediately. Tehran has this week responded to a “final” proposal to reactivate the 2015 accord, and the European Union is now consulting the US on a “way ahead.” Seen as the last hope of rescuing the deal, the blueprint is aimed at limiting Iran’s nuclear activity in exchange for easing sanctions, including on its oil. The prospect of a quick return of Iranian supplies has helped keep benchmark Brent crude below $100 a barrel this month, a level it’s mostly exceeded since the start of the Ukraine war in February. Of the 100 million barrels of oil in storage, about 40 million to 45 million are crude and the rest condensate, a light oil that’s pumped out together with gas, according to Iman Nasseri, Dubai-based managing director of energy consultants FGE. Once stored oil is released, the bigger challenge will come in reviving dormant oil fields and arranging the contracts, vessels and insurance to ship those barrels. Yet Iran has continued to maintain many of its fields -- and key customer relationships -- during the years it’s been shut out of global trade. The country could add as much as 900,000 barrels a day of production within three months of sanctions being eased, and potentially pump near its full capacity of about 3.7 million barrels a day within six months, Nasseri said. Iran is producing about 2.5 million barrels of crude a day now, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Following the 2015 deal, it took about three months to add 700,000 barrels a day and a year to get back to full capacity. That then fell apart with Donald Trump’s 2018 withdrawal from the agreement. The pace of Tehran’s renewed oil comeback will be closely watched, with fuel demand recovering from the pandemic, Russian supplies shunned by multiple buyers, and most of Iran’s fellow OPEC+ members struggling to boost output. Talks with world powers have dragged on for almost 18 months, dogged at various stages by political squabbles over terrorism sanctions, Iran’s demands for guarantees the US won’t again renege on the deal, Russia’s war on Ukraine and nuclear inspections. A revived agreement remains far from certain.

Goldman Says Iran Nuclear Deal Is Unlikely -A deal to revive a nuclear agreement between Iran, the EU and the US is unlikely to be struck in the near term, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc., which said that even if a pact were agreed, additional oil wouldn’t flow until next year. “Our view continues to be that a deal is still unlikely in the short term, with a stalemate mutually beneficial,” analysts including Callum Bruce said in an Aug. 16 note. Even with a breakthrough, there would likely be a “phased implementation,” with barrels unlikely to return until the start of 2023 at the earliest, they said. Oil markets have been transfixed in recent days by the possibility that an agreement could be struck to save the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, a nuclear pact that was abandoned by former US President Donald Trump. Given that an accord could clear the way for Tehran to resume crude exports without US sanctions, global benchmark Brent closed on Tuesday at the lowest since February. At present obstacles remain, especially regarding so-called continuity guarantees the US is unable and unwilling to provide, the analysts said. In addition, Iran has “weak incentives” to agree given it’s already exporting about 1 million barrels a day while also making progress toward medium-term nuclear goals, they said. A return of Iranian supply would reduce the bank’s existing 2023 Brent forecast of $125 a barrel by $5 to $10, they said. Brent last traded at $92.49 a barrel.

Iran Confirms Drone Sale To Russia - But What Will It Buy In Exchange? - Small birds do not taste well and their small bones makes eating them a fickle. I will have overcome that though as I will now have to eat some crow.On July 12 Moon of Alabama headlined:No, Iran Will Not Deliver Armed Drones To RussiaIn March this year we were treated to an onslaught of obviously false claims that China would deliver weapons to Russia for the fight in Ukraine....Now an equally stupid claim was launched by the very same liar who launched the fake Chinese weapons claim. White House: Iran set to deliver armed drones to Russia - AP - Jul 7, 2022... Russia has absolutely no need to buy drones from Iran. Besides that it is dubious that Iran would be able to deliver some and certainly not 'several hundreds'.... The whole issues is just a talking point designed to put Iran and Russia into the same 'baddies' binder for Biden's talks in the Middle East. The countries there may not like Iran but they will certainly not allow for a condemnation of Russia. The whole idea is, as many others Sullivan had, stupid to begin with. So no, there will not be any Iranian drones going to Russia or fly over Ukraine.I, like the other Iran-watch writers I quoted, was wrong.Elijah J. Magnier, who has excellent contacts within the 'axis of resistance' led by Iran, reports:Russia buys 1,000 drones from Iran and expands the level of strategic cooperation

FG moves to evacuate stranded Nigerians from UAE - Nigerians who are stranded in the United Arab Emirates are currently undergoing profiling ahead of their evacuation to Nigeria. In a viral video, thousands of people were seated in an open area with their bags and luggage following the mass deportation of aliens being carried out by the UAE authorities. The Chairman, Nigerians in Diaspora Commission, Abike Dabiri-Erewa, who briefed journalists in Abuja on Friday, said the profiling being carried out by the Nigerian Consulate in Dubai was necessary to properly get detailed information about the Nigerians over there before evacuating them. She said, “Immediately, the attention of the Nigerian Consulate in Dubai was drawn to the issue, Nigerians there are being profiled. Some of them have passports and some do not. There are some children that do not have any form of identification. Some do not even remember the names with which they entered the country originally. So they need to be profiled. It is also important to ensure that some have not committed a crime and they are just running. “So, what the consulate is doing now is profiling everybody at the holding centre. Initially, at the airport, there was a fake WhatsApp message sent to everybody that there were flights that led to the rush to the airport. There were quite a lot of Africans.” The NiDCOM chairman also explained that “It is after the profiling that the consulate will make a decision on the next step to take. The consulate and the embassy will brief the Federal Government on the next step to take.”

Workers describe dangerous attacks near Ukraine nuclear power plant - — There’s no warning when incoming fire slams into the grounds of Europe’s largest nuclear plant, sending workers scrambling for cover. “It’s kaboom — then everybody runs,” said one employee, messaging from Enerhodar, the Russian-held town on the banks of the Dnieper River that is home to Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant. Another employee, who sometimes works suspended off the ground to service equipment, said the vibrations are often so strong from outgoing Russian artillery fire that managers make him stop working. The workers were among six from the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant who spoke to The Washington Post, describing the daily terror of working at the nuclear facility that Russia has used as a shield for its attacks in recent weeks. Five of them had fled to Ukrainian territory in recent days and weeks as engineers and operational staff members join columns of cars leaving, adding worker shortages to a long list of concerns about the plant’s functioning. Their accounts provide a window on the deteriorating security situation at the plant, which has triggered global concerns about the potential for a nuclear catastrophe. Some Ukrainian officials say stirring panic could be precisely Moscow’s aim, in the hope that international pressure will force Kyiv to make territorial concessions. Others say they fear Russia is laying the groundwork for a “false flag” attack it will blame on Ukrainian forces. For the staff, that adds another layer of peril and fear to an already extreme working environment since Russian troops seized the plant six months ago. Since then, staff members have disappeared, camera phones have been banned, and representatives of Rosatom, Russia’s state nuclear energy company, have been present at company meetings.

Russia-Ukraine war latest updates: Fighting near Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant sparks outcry - The United Nations on Monday rejected Russian claims that U.N. officials had blocked inspectors at the International Atomic Energy Agency from visiting the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, the latest development in the global, high-stakes bid to secure the site of Europe’s largest nuclear facility.The plant remains under Russian occupation and experts have warned of catastrophic disaster risks amid ongoing fighting and artillery fire in the area. U.N. leaders have pushed for the site’s demilitarization and have demanded access for international monitors. Here’s the latest on the war and its ripple effects across the world.

• The latest round of shelling near the Zaporizhzhia plant killed one employee and injured two others, Ukraine’s nuclear power regulator said on Telegram. The city of Enerhodar was hit at least six times, the regulator said, further shaking the enclave where many nuclear power plant employees live.
• Russian forces are taking over more buildings and businesses in Enerhodar, the city’s mayor said Monday. Most recently, soldiers seized a university and government laboratory, where more than 30 people were working, said Mayor Dmitry Orlov. The moves underscore Russia’s attempt to dig in around the area, even as the international community calls for its troops to withdraw.
• The Ukrainian government has evacuated more than 5,500 people from the Donetsk province since late last month, when Kyiv ordered residents to leave as fighting in the region grew increasingly severe, officials said Monday. Now, just a quarter of Donetsk’s population remains, regional governor Pavlo Kyrylenko said. Some have refused to leave.
• Moscow is probably in the “advanced planning stages to hold a referendum” for the eastern Donetsk region to join Russia, even though it has not been completely captured, Britain’s Defense Ministry said Monday.
• Ukrainian forces again struck a bridge near Kherson over the weekend, probably rendering all three bridges into the Kherson region “unusable,” the Institute for the Study of War, a D.C.-based think tank, said Sunday evening.

Why is the world so worried about Ukraine's Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant? - The horrors of Russia's invasion have so far been visited on the Ukrainian people. But intensifying fighting around a nuclear power plant — Europe's largest — could put swaths of the continent at risk of a radiation catastrophe. The Zaporizhzhia complex in Ukraine's southeastern town of Enerhodar was captured by Russia in the early days of the war. Still operated by Ukrainian technicians, it has fueled growing international alarm after shelling hit the plant, whose six reactors generate more power than any such facility in the United States.The West is accusing Russia of nuclear terrorism, deliberately stationing hundreds of troops and stores of weapons there to use it as a "shield" for the bombardment of nearby targets. Ukraine also says Russian forces are directly attacking the site.Many of Russia's claims during the war have stretched credulity, but Moscow is charging Kyiv with repeatedly attacking the plant. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov alleged the Ukrainian shelling is "fraught with catastrophic consequences for vast territories, for all of Europe."As a result, officials in the city of Zaporizhzhia, which remains under Ukrainian control, have started to prepare plans to evacuate civilians in case of a radiation leak.Built by the then-Soviet Union in the 1980s, Zaporizhzhia's six light-water reactors make it among the 10 most powerful nuclear power stations in the world.After the invasion began Feb. 24, the Kremlin war machine took a little over a week to capture the plant at Enerhodar, a city that is around a 2-hour drive southwest of the larger Zaporizhzhia.Russian forces' seizure of the plant a week after the invasion began caused initial concerns when a fire erupted at the site after shelling.That offensive marked the first time in history that war had broken out in a country with such a large and advanced nuclear power infrastructure, according to the Vienna-based International Atomic Energy Agency, which reports to the United Nations.That panic renewed this week after shelling damaged several buildings and a power cable, and put one reactor offline, according to Energoatom, Ukraine's national energy company. The plant provides Ukraine with more than 20% of its power.Moscow is "blackmailing the whole world with the possibility of a nuclear disaster," according to Hryhoriy Plachkov, former head of the State Nuclear Regulatory Inspectorate of Ukraine.Russia, which is occupying the plant, has traded accusations of responsibility with Ukraine, which appears to be mounting a renewed offensive in the south of the country.It is not known how many of the plant's 11,000 prewar staff continue to work at the site. One former employee told NBC News that it was "very scary for them to work" under Russian control, amid reports that some of them were being held hostage.NBC News has not verified either side's claims. Ukraine is of course no stranger to nuclear calamity.The 1986 disaster at Chernobyl is considered the worst of its kind, leading to the evacuation of more than 100,000 people and radiation being detected across Europe.Zaporizhzhia's more modern reactors should be reinforced to deal with huge forces such as a plane crashing into them, according to Hamish de Bretton-Gordon, who led the chemical, biological, radiological and nuclear defense forces known as CBRN in both the British army and NATO."However, this is a warzone, there are some munitions being used that are far more deadly than an airplane hitting them," he said. "Fighting from a nuclear power station is bonkers, it's just not a good idea."

Kiev may stage provocation if IAEA goes to nuclear plant via Ukraine, local official says – TASS -The Ukrainian side may stage a provocation if the International Atomic Energy Agency’s (IAEA) mission travels to inspect the Zaporozhye nuclear power plant through the territory controlled by Kiev, a member of the main council of the Zaporozhye Region’s military-civilian administration Vladimir Rogov told TASS on Tuesday. "Here the level of danger is high because this is a line of combat engagement and it must be understood that [Ukrainian President] Zelensky’s militants have vast experience in shooting people crossing this line," Vladimir Rogov noted. "I am afraid that a provocation may occur, and that this is precisely why Kiev began to consent [to the inspection by the IAEA] opting for a different strategy," he explained. According to the official, should any provocation occur, Russia and Zaporozhye will be blamed. "Yet if these people are ready to take risks, they can go [via Kiev] but it must be understood that the responsibility for their safety until they cross the frontline, the line of combat engagement, until they get to the territories controlled by us will lie completely with them," he added. He noted that the Zaporozhye Region’s authorities support the mission’s visit to the nuclear plant and are ready to ensure the utmost level of safety. "The visit of the IAEA delegation to the Zaporozhye NPP either via Kiev or through Melitopol or through Berdyansk is a major step forward, we are really looking forward to it and will definitely ensure the utmost level of security imaginable," the official stressed. "It does not matter which route the mission will take, the important part is that they get here," he stressed. The official emphasized that the region has specialists trained to accompany major delegations "ranging from journalists to people with humanitarian missions," and there should not be any problems ensuring the delegation’s safety jointly with the Russian side. The Zaporozhye nuclear plant in Energodar is controlled by Russian troops. Over the past few days, Ukrainian forces have delivered several strikes on the NPP’s premises, using, among other things, drones, heavy artillery and multiple-launch rocket systems. The majority of attacks have been deflected by air defense systems, however, shells hit some infrastructure facilities and the vicinity of a nuclear waste storage facility.

‘A New Chernobyl’: World Leaders Brace for Crisis at Ukrainian Nuclear Plant - Russia has ominously warned the workers at a critical nuclear power plant in Ukraine to stay home on Friday, raising fears of an impending nuclear crisis as a result of ongoing hostilities. Forces loyal to the Kremlin seized control of the Zaporizhzhia power plant – Europe’s largest – in southeastern Ukraine shortly after Russia launched its invasion in late February. It has been the site of continued shelling since then, which both the Kremlin and the government of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy blame on the other, prompting persistent fears by international monitoring agencies of a broader fallout. But the potential for nuclear disaster reached a new peak this week amid reports that the employees of Rosatom, the Russian nuclear agency that reportedly staffs the facility now, received notice not to come to work on Friday and that the entrances would be shuttered. Ukrainian officials have also told several news outlets that they have information Russia appears to be preparing a false-flag attack or some other incident that Moscow could claim as a provocation against it. The warnings reached crisis levels on Thursday, coinciding with a planned meeting in the far-western Ukrainian city of Lviv between Zelenskyy, U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan – the occasional ally of Russian President Vladimir Putin who has taken on a singular diplomatic role in conflict zones where both Russian and Western forces operate. “We do not want to experience a new Chernobyl,” the Turkish leader said at a press conference after the meeting, referring to the 1986 Soviet nuclear accident in what is now Ukraine – one of the worst in the nuclear age. The trio met to discuss potential diplomatic solutions to the burgeoning crisis. And Zelenskyy confirmed afterward that Ukraine and the U.N. had agreed for a mission of the International Atomic Energy Agency to monitor the plant. The IAEA had previously stated the fighting around Zaporizhzhia did not appear to affect nuclear safety and security at the plant. In a statement on Friday, however, Director-General Mariano Grossi called the renewed shelling “deeply troubling.” And Thursday’s announcement of a new monitoring mission did not specifically address the latest fears. Indeed, Zelenskyy said that for the mission to have any success Russia must first stop shelling the plant. Russia, however, has consistently stated that Ukrainian forces, in fact, are the perpetrators of the shelling. Its mission to the U.K. released photos on Thursday it says shows the remnants of Western-supplied missile components found in craters at the Zaporizhzhia plant.

Russia warns nuclear plant's radioactive material could cover Europe --Russia's Ministry of Defense warned Thursday that if an accident occurs at the nuclear power plant it is occupying in southern Ukraine, radioactive material would cover Germany, Poland and Slovakia. Igor Kirillov, head of Russia's radioactive, chemical and biological defense forces, said the plant's backup support systems had been damaged as a result of shelling, Reuters reported, and that several countries in Europe could be at risk if there was an accident. The warning on Thursday came as tensions over the status of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant came to the fore, with the fate of the facility — Europe's largest nuclear power plant — set to be discussed at talks between the U.N.'s secretary-general, Antonio Guterres, and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy on Thursday. Both Russia and Ukraine have repeatedly accused each other of shelling the power plant. Russia's Defense Ministry said Thursday that it may shut down the nuclear plant if Ukrainian forces continued to shell the facility. Ukraine denies shelling the plant and instead blames Russia for endangering the facility, saying it is storing ammunition and military equipment there. Ukraine and the international community have warned of the potential for a catastrophic accident at the plant and on Wednesday, Ukraine's Emergency Ministry conducted a nuclear catastrophe exercise in the city of Zaporizhzhia, which is located in southeastern Ukraine on the Dnipro River, in case of an accident. Zelenskyy said Wednesday night that Ukrainian diplomats and nuclear scientists are in "constant touch" with the International Atomic Energy Agency and working to get a team of inspectors into the plant which has been occupied by Russian troops since the early stages of the war. Tensions over the plant have risen in recent weeks with Ukraine accusing Russia of using the facility as a shield and part of a "nuclear blackmail" strategy. Ukrainians still working at the facility say they are effectively hostages there, telling the BBC last week that they were being kept at gunpoint. The game of cat and mouse over the plant continued Thursday with Russia's Ministry of Defense claiming on Telegram that Kyiv was planning a "provocation" at the power plant during Guterres' visit, saying that "as a result of which the Russian Federation will be blamed for creating a man-made disaster at the power plant." The ministry added that, "in order to prepare for the provocation," it was deploying radiation observation posts near Zaporizhzhia and organizing training exercises for a number of military units in the region "on measures to be taken in conditions of radioactive contamination of the area."

Satellite images show heavy damage at Russian air base in Crimea - New satellite images have revealed the heavy damage to a Russian air base in Crimea that was rocked by explosions last week, calling into question Moscow's ability to protect the territory it controls in Ukraine's south.The pictures, released Thursday, added to a growing belief that the blasts may be the result of Ukrainian attacks, suggesting an ability to strike deep behind enemy lines that could help shift the course of the war. It comes as Ukraine and Russia traded accusations of new strikes on Europe's largest nuclear plant, in a crisis that has stoked fears of a catastrophe. The United Nations is set to discuss the situation Thursday. As international leaders raised the alarm about what would be a dramatic development in the conflict, experts and analysts were assessing another.Kyiv said nine Russian warplanes were destroyed in a series of blasts at the Saki air base in annexed Crimea on Tuesday, while Russia denied any damage and said the incident stemmed from ammunition detonating. Ukraine has not publicly claimed responsibility for the blasts.But the satellite images released by Planet Labs, an American public Earth imaging company, appear to contradict Russian assertions.NBC News analysis of the imagery suggests two buildings in the northeast corner of the base burned to the ground, with what appears to be the burned-out wreckage of at least six planes visible, and several other planes damaged. NBC News could not independently verify if all the aircraft were airworthy.From the satellite imagery, it's clear that the scope of the damage at the Saki air base is quite extensive, said Michael A. Horowitz, a geopolitical and security analyst and the head of intelligence at Le Beck consultancy."It may be hard to gauge which of the aircraft are fully destroyed or only damaged, but what's evident from the images is that at least a dozen of attack aircraft have been put out of combat for a while," he said. "Looking at the pictures, what strikes me is how precise this attack was," Horowitz added.

Zelensky faces unprecedented criticism over failure to warn of war - Until this week, Ukrainians seemed to see President Volodymyr Zelensky as beyond reproach, a national hero who stayed in Kyiv despite the risk to his personal safety to lead his country against invading Russian troops. Comments he made to The Washington Post justifying his failure to share with Ukrainians details of repeated U.S. warnings that Russia planned to invade have punctured the bubble, triggering a cascade of public criticism unprecedented since the war began. Ordinary people tweeted their experiences of chaos and dislocation after an invasion for which they were unprepared, and described how they might have made different choices had they known what was coming. Public figures and academics wrote harsh critiques on Facebook of his decision to downplay the risk of an invasion, saying he bears at least some responsibility for the atrocities that followed. An interview with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky In the interview with The Post, published Tuesday, Zelensky cited his fears that Ukrainians would panic, flee the country and trigger economic collapse as the reason he chose not to share the stark warnings passed on by U.S. officials regarding Russia’s plans. “If we had communicated that … then I would have been losing $7 billion a month since last October, and at the moment when the Russians did attack, they would have taken us in three days,” Zelensky said. He added that subsequent events — with Russian troops failing to reach the capital — suggested he had made the right call. “That’s what happened when the invasion started — we were as strong as we could be. Some of our people left, but most of them stayed here, they fought for their homes. And as cynical as it may sound, those are the people who stopped everything.”

Zelensky Warns Civilians Must Stay Away From "Targets" In Crimea - Signaling More Attacks - Ukrainian government officials are teasing the likelihood of more strikes and 'sabotage operations' inside Russian controlled Crimea, after having cheered on at least two recent large explosions at military sites. Kiev officials, including President Volodymyr Zelensky himself, are reportedly warning that all civilians should "stay away from potential targets" in Crimea. This follows the Kremlin on Tuesday admitting for the first time that the recent explosions were the "result of sabotage". Following the latest incident, the Russia's defense ministry said, "On the morning of Aug. 16, as a result of an act of sabotage, a military storage facility near the village of Dzhankoi was damaged."This is the clearest indication yet that in addition to the Dzhankoi munitions depot blast, the prior Aug.9 massive explosion at Russia's Saky airbase, some 200km deep inside, was also a Ukrainian attack - as some Ukrainian officials had already leaked to US newspapers.The Saky airbase incident had also set off discussion over whether US-supplied HIMARS rockets could reach that far. If indeed there were foreign weapons systems behind it, it could set the US and Russia on a dangerous path of escalation and collision as the proxy war could fast develop into direct confrontation between superpowers in Ukraine.The Kremlin has warned even of nuclear confrontation among superpowers if the war is to spiral outside of Ukraine's borders. But while Russia sees Crimea as its own, going back to a popular referendum among the pro-Russian population in 2014, both Kiev and the West view Crimea as still part of Ukraine's sovereign territory which was illegally "annexed".

Another Russian military base in Crimea rocked by major explosions -Exactly one week after six blasts devastated Russia’s Saki airbase in northern Crimea, a series of major blasts rocked another military base in a neighboring region of the Black Sea peninsula which was annexed by Russia in March 2014, following the US-backed far-right coup in Kiev. While the Kremlin has tried to downplay last week’s explosions, Ukraine claimed that 60 people were killed and 100 wounded. Satellite images appeared to show that at least 7 Russian fighter jets of the type Su-24 and Su-34 were destroyed and two severely damaged. This would amount to the largest loss for Russia’s aviation in a single day since World War II. The latest blasts occurred at around 6:15 a.m. local time on Tuesday, and hit a military base and electrical substation near the villages Maiskoe and Dzhankoiskoe. A major ammunition depot exploded, local energy supplies were disrupted, and residential buildings were damaged. Parts of the local railway network, which reportedly transports military equipment to Russian troops fighting in Ukraine, were also damaged and the railway had to stop service for most of Tuesday. According to local authorities, over 3,000 people were evacuated, more than 10 times the number of official evacuees after last week’s explosions. A state of emergency was proclaimed across northern Crimea and a safety zone with a radius of 5 kilometers (3 miles) was established around the site of the blasts. Officials indicated that only two people were wounded. As was the case in last week’s incident, the Kremlin insists that the reason for the blasts were acts of “sabotage,” refusing to acknowledge Ukrainian involvement. Seemingly contradicting the Kremlin’s version of events, Vladimir Konstantinov, a leader of the ruling United Russia party and head of the State Council of Crimea, wrote on his Telegram channel: “one thing is already clear: an agency of the terrorist Kiev regime has received the signal to become activated, and, since it is unable to engage in large actions, they try to do small mischief.” Konstantinov called for strikes on the “decision-making centers” as the “most effective and timely measure.” While Ukraine has not officially taken responsibility for the blasts, leading Kiev officials all but admitted, gloatingly, that Ukraine was behind them. Minutes after news of the blasts broke, Andriy Yermak, the main advisor to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, provocatively tweeted, “The Ukrainian Armed Forces continue the filigree ‘demilitarization’ operation to fully rid our land of Russian invaders. Our soldiers are the best sponsors of a good mood. Crimea is Ukraine.” In a clear hint that more attacks are to come, Ukraine’s Zelensky wrote on his Telegram channel Tuesday evening that Ukrainians should stay away from Russian military bases in Crimea and East Ukraine. The American press, which had covered the blasts last week in an unusually subdued manner, is now reporting in an almost triumphant tone on the explosions. The New York Times wrote that “A senior Ukrainian official, speaking on the condition of anonymity to discuss Tuesday’s operation, said an elite unit was responsible for the explosions.” Describing the strikes by Ukraine as “brazen,” the Times wrote that they came “in defiance” of warnings by Russia’s former president and deputy head of the security council Dmitry Medvedev that “judgement day” would come in case Ukraine struck Crimea. The apparent strikes by Ukraine on Crimea are only the most extreme in a number of dangerous escalations of the imperialist proxy war against Russia on Ukrainian territory. Fighting still continues around the Zaporozhia nuclear power plant, the largest in Europe, with both Ukraine and Russia accusing each other of shelling the site. Experts have been warning for weeks of the potential of a major nuclear disaster, but the Ukrainian government has reportedly refused to let officials of the International Atomic Energy Agency enter the site other than by crossing the front lines.

Various Points On Ukraine And Media - Lambert Strether and Yves Smith at Naked Capitalism discuss a piece on the Russian operation in Ukraine that had been printed in the Marine Corps Gazette and of which facsimile pictures were published two weeks ago on Twitter and later in full at Reddit and by Southfront.I had read the Gazette piece when it first appeared some weeks ago and found it excellent. It realistically depicts the early Russian move towards Kiev as a feint. This is also my view. The feint, with too few troops to actually occupy Kiev, had a political and a military purpose.Politically it put pressure on the Ukrainian government to quickly agree to Russian conditions for a ceasefire. This nearly worked when negotiations between Russia and Ukraine at the end of March in Turkey had promising results. The talks were then sabotaged by Boris Johnson's intervention in Kiev where he, speaking for Joe Biden, demanded a continuation of the war which Zelensky then promptly provided.Militarily the feint had near prefect results. Some 100,000 Ukrainian troops were fixed around Kiev while Russian troops from Crimea moved nearly unopposed to connect the island via a land bridge to the Donbas and Russia and also grabbed a large foothold in Kherson on the west side of the Dnieper.The hasty feint had a high price in the form of Russian casualties but helped to established front situations in the east and south that allowed for the mass destruction of Ukrainian forces with a minimum of casualties on the Russian side.When the feint towards Kiev was no longer useful the Russian forces moved back to their starting positions without much fighting. The Ukrainian claimed that to be a victory but they had hardly anything to do with the well planned and executed retreat. That the Gazette would print a piece that confirms this view is remarkable. Even more remarkable, as Lambert notes, is the lack of echo it has had in U.S. media:

India, China troops to take part in Russia war games - The Hindu -- Indian and Chinese troops are set to take part in military exercises in Russia later this month, the first such major war games to be hosted by Russia since its invasion of Ukraine in February. China’s Defence Ministry in Beijing on Wednesday in a statement announced the participation of People’s Liberation Army (PLA) troops in the exercises, adding that “India, Belarus, Tajikistan, Mongolia and other countries will also participate”. India has also indicated its participation in the war games. There was no response from the Indian Army on Wednesday to questions on India’s participation. Russia’s Defence Ministry said last month the Vostok (East) 2022 exercises will be held from August 30 to September 5 in 13 training grounds in Russia’s Eastern Military District, and that the manoeuvres would include units of airborne troops, long-range bombers and military cargo aircraft. It remains unclear if Indian and Chinese troops will be present together or if they will take part in different drills which will be spread across the 13 different training grounds. The Chinese Defence Ministry statement noted the exercises were “unrelated to the current international and regional situation” and were aimed at “deepening the pragmatic and friendly cooperation with the militaries of participating countries, enhancing the level of strategic coordination of all participating parties, and enhancing the ability to deal with various security threats”.

Russia, China And India To Hold Massive "Vostok" War Games In Two Weeks - Chinese troops will travel to Russia to take part in war games along with India, Belarus, Mongolia, Tajikistan and other largely anti-Western countries, China's defense ministry said on Wednesday, adding redundantly that China's participation in the joint exercises was "unrelated to the current international and regional situation." (Narrator: it is related.)Last month, Moscow announced plans to hold "Vostok" (East) exercises from Aug. 30 to Sept. 5, even as it wages war in Ukraine. It said at the time that some foreign forces would participate, without naming them. It turns out that the "foreign forces" account for just under half of the world's population.China's defence ministry said its participation in the exercises was part of an ongoing bilateral annual cooperation agreement with Russia, Reuters reported."The aim is to deepen practical and friendly cooperation with the armies of participating countries, enhance the level of strategic collaboration among the participating parties, and strengthen the ability to respond to various security threats," the statement said.What is perhaps most interesting about the news is that the war games will see India and China participate together, although as the Hindu times notes, it remains unclear if Indian and Chinese troops - hardly the closest of friends - will be present together or if they will participate in different drills, which will be spread across 13 different training grounds.Indian and Chinese troops have remained in a stand-off that has lasted for more than two years along the Line of Actual Control (LAC) in Eastern Ladakh following the transgressions by the PLA in April 2020. Disengagement has taken place in some areas along the LAC but talks to restore the status quo in the remaining friction areas such as Hot Springs, Demchok, and Depsang have been slow moving.Under Chinese President Xi Jinping and his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin, Beijing and Moscow have grown increasingly close especially following the start of the Ukraine war which Xi sees as a grand rehearsal for the invasion of Taiwan. Last August, Russia and China held joint military exercises in north-central China involving more than 10,000 troops. Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu praised the Sibu/Cooperation-2021 drills in China's Ningxia and suggested they could be developed further.In October, Russia and China held joint naval drills in the Sea of Japan. Days later, Russian and Chinese warships held their first joint patrols in the western Pacific. The next month, South Korea's military said it had scrambled fighter jets after two Chinese and seven Russian warplanes intruded into its air defense identification zone during what Beijing called regular training. Just days before Russia's Feb. 24 invasion of Ukraine, Beijing and Moscow announced a "no limits" partnership, although U.S. officials say they have not seen China evade U.S.-led sanctions on Russia or provide it with military equipment.

China Unexpectedly Cuts Rates As Terrible Econ Data Confirms "Alarming" Slowdown, Yields Plunge --Moments ago, and just days after the release of China's dismal woeful new credit data, the National Bureau of Statistics reported the July data dump which was just awful. Among the latest monthly data:

• Industrial production rose 3.8% from a year ago, lower than June’s 3.9% and missing economists’ forecast of a 4.3% increase
• Retail sales grew at a 2.7% annual pace, also lower than June's 3.1%, and badly missing the consensus estimate of 5.0%
• Fixed-asset investment gained 5.7% in the first seven months of the year, which however was also below the June YTD number of 6.1%, and also missed the 6.2% projected by economists
• The silver lining is that just as in the US, the worse the economy founders, the lower the jobless rate which in July fell to 5.4% from 5.5%

“July’s economic data is very alarming,” said Raymond Yeung, Greater China economist at Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd. “The Covid Zero policy continues to hit the service sector and dampen household consumption.”It's not just Covid Zero: the "alarming" collapse in China's economy was strongly hinted last Friday when Beijing reported that July credit growth, in the form of total social financing and RMB loans, came in well below the already-low market expectations.According to Goldman, the detailed breakdown of the July loan data pointed to weaker credit demand: household and corporate loans both slowed in July from June, and interbank rates declined to very low levels in recent weeks. Smaller government bond net issuance also contributed to the lower TSF. That said, local government officials are working on preparing the pipeline for additional infrastructure investment projects, and the July Politburo meeting pointed to likely additional local government special bond issuance beyond this year’s budget in the next few months.However, Beijing appears to finally realize that at a time when China's housing is crashing (with residential property sales plunging 28.6% in July, it's no surprise the WSJ last week wrote that "The Bursting Chinese Housing Bubble Compounds Beijing’s Economic Woes"), it will have to do something at the national level, as the latest credit figures clearly raise the risks of a liquidity trap where monetary easing is failing to spur lending in the economy. As such, moments before the latest horrific data dump, China’s central bank unexpectedly cut its key interest rates in a feeble attempt to prop up the failing economy weighed by Covid lockdowns and a deepening property downturn.The PBOC cut the rate on its one-year policy loans by 10 basis points to 2.75% and the seven-day reverse repo rate to 2% from 2.1%, surprising China watchers with all 20 economists polled forecasting the rate on the one-year medium-term lending facility would be left unchanged. Expect all other key reference rates to follow a similar 10bps rate cut in the coming days.

Watch: Shoppers At Shanghai Ikea Flee Sudden COVID Lockdown - Though America's Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) took a turn toward Covid rationality last week, "Zero-Covid" madness is still raging in China.Just ask the poor people who were at a Shanghai Ikea on Saturday evening. One minute they're innocently eyeing furniture and appliances, the next they're being told they can't leave the store or go home. An announcement was made over the store's public address system, notifying shoppers the store had been ordered to close and to prevent anyone from leaving, due to contact tracing. Shocked by suddenly being condemned to quarantine, many opted to make a run for it.Video captured a dystopian scene in which guards attempt to close doors on the escapees, some of whom are screaming in their panic. The guards were overpowered, but it's not clear what happened to the fleeing shoppers next. Those who were trapped in the store had to first linger there for four hours -- from 8pm til midnight -- before being transported to quarantine hotels, reports Bloomberg. Then they faced quarantine for two days followed by five days of monitoring. The mass-detention was triggered merely because a close contact of a six-year-old boy who tested positive had visited the store. It's not clear if that individual was in the store at the time. What's more, the 6-year old wasn't even symptomatic. While the video of the incident is dramatic, it's hardly the first such episode, as Chinese citizens continue to live in a dark game of contact-tracing roulette. Others have been suddenly detained while working in offices, exercising at gyms or dining in restaurants. Of China's major cities, Shanghai has been hit hardest. Between March 10 and July 31 of this year alone, the city endured 92 days of full or partial lockdown. This spring, it got to the point where apartment-dwellers were screaming in unison from their balconies:

Lira Crashes After Turkish Central Bank Makes Shock Rate Cut Despite Raging Hyperinflation - Nevermind the 80% inflation: the boss wants a rate cut and damn it, he will get a rate cut. That's probably what was swirling through the heads of the "dependent" Turkish central bank minutes before it shocked markets moments ago when - with the Turkish lira already at record low - it cut rates by 100bps from 14% to 13% with all 21 economists in the Bloomberg survey expecting an unchanged print.The Monetary Policy Committee led by Erdogan puppet Sahap Kavcioglu lowered its benchmark to 13% on Thursday, after keeping it at 14% for the past seven months. And with the Turkish currency already at an all time low, it promptly plummeted another 1% lower against the dollar as it is now clear that Turkey has picked hyperinflation.“It is important that financial conditions remain supportive to preserve the growth momentum in industrial production and the positive trend in employment in a period of increasing uncertainties regarding global growth as well as escalating geopolitical risk,” the MPC said in a statement. Here are some other highlights from the statement:

• Updated level of policy rate is adequate under the current outlook
• Leading indicators for 3Q point to some loss of momentum in economic activity
• It is important that financial conditions remain supportive to preserve the growth momentum in industrial production and the positive trend in employment in a period of increasing uncertainties regarding global growth as well as escalating geopolitical risk
• Stronger than expected contribution of tourism revenues to the current account balance continues
• Rate of credit growth and allocation of funds for real economic activity purposes are closely monitored
• Recent increase in spread between policy rate and the loan interest rate is considered to reduce the effectiveness of monetary transmission
• MPC decided to further strengthen the macroprudential policy set with tools supporting the effectiveness of the monetary transmission mechanism
• Comprehensive review of the policy framework continues with the aim of encouraging permanent and strengthened liraization in all policy tools of the CBRT

Kavcioglu has blamed a global rally in commodity prices, partly caused by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February. The central bank now expects inflation to reach a high of around 85% this fall, before ending the year near 60%, or 12 times its target.As Bloomberg notes, the sudden resumption of monetary stimulus with less than a year before elections reflects the determination of Turkish authorities to follow through on authoritarian ruler Tayyip Erdogan’s promise in June that rate cuts will continue. The decision follows three weeks after the central bank revised this year’s inflation forecast higher by almost 18 percentage points.Erdogan is intent on turbocharging growth by focusing on exports and employment as part of what he calls a “new economic model.” But risks abound as the cost-of-living crisis unfolding in Turkey poses a threat to his electoral popularity.