global glass onion: week ending Mar 25

Fed and global central banks move to boost dollar funding - The Federal Reserve and five other central banks announced coordinated action on Sunday to boost liquidity in US dollar swap arrangements, the latest effort by policymakers to ease growing strains in the global financial system. Central banks involved in the dollar swaps will "increase the frequency of 7-day maturity operations from weekly to daily," the Fed said in a statement coordinated with the Bank of Canada, the Bank of England, the Bank of Japan, the European Central Bank and the Swiss National Bank. The US central bank has typically provided access to such arrangements at times when there's a squeeze on the availability of dollars. That can arise because banks outside the US typically have obligations that are denominated in greenbacks, and in times of financial strain have less access to dollar funding. The liquidity injection is "very much needed" especially for the Swiss and European central banks right now, said Alicia Garcia Herrero, chief Asia-Pacific economist at Natixis. "We learned that the hard way during the global financial crisis in 2008 when it took too long to set them up. The Fed was much faster in March 2020 and this time around." The move comes amid heightened tension that began with the collapse of three US lenders a week ago. Earlier Sunday, UBS agreed to buy Credit Suisse in a government-brokered deal aimed at containing a crisis of confidence that threatened to spread across global financial markets. The boost to swap lines will "enhance the provision of liquidity," the central banks said, describing the arrangements as "an important liquidity backstop to ease strains in global funding markets" and mitigate the impact on the supply of loans to households and businesses. The Fed said daily operations will begin on Monday, March 20 and will continue at least through the end of April. In a joint statement earlier Sunday, the Fed and the US Treasury joined other central banks in welcoming the Credit Suisse rescue. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and Fed Chair Jerome Powell stressed that the capital and liquidity of US banks is strong. Last week, banks rushed to borrow cash from the Fed as they sought to shore up liquidity amid concern about a flight of deposits. Lenders borrowed some $165 billion in total under two backstop facilities. Altogether, the emergency lending reversed several months' worth of the Fed's campaign to shrink its balance sheet.

The Fed raises interest rates again despite the stress in banking : NPR The Federal Reserve raised interest rates for the ninth time in a row on Wednesday, opting to continue its campaign against high inflation despite stress in the banking industry following the collapse of two regional banks. Fed policymakers voted unanimously to raise their benchmark interest rate by a quarter percentage point to just under 5%, which will make it more expensive for people seeking car loans or carrying a balance on their credit cards.Members of the Fed's rate-setting committee said additional rate hikes may be necessary to restore price stability. On average, policymakers anticipate rates climbing by another quarter-percentage point by the end of this year, according to new projections that were also released on Wednesday."The Committee anticipates that some additional policy firming may be appropriate," the Fed said in a statement.Some observers had urged the central bank to pause its rate hikes, at least temporarily, in order to assess the fallout from the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank earlier this month.Stress in the banking system appeared to ease in recent days, however. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said Tuesday that large withdrawals from regional banks have "stabilized." And bank stocks have rallied this week. "The U.S. banking system is sound and resilient," the Fed's monetary policy statement said. Meanwhile, consumer prices continue to climb at a rapid rate. Annual inflation in February was 6% — down from 9.1% last June, but still well above the Fed's target of 2%. The central bank is particularly concerned about the rising cost of services, such as airline tickets and streaming TV subscriptions. "To restore price stability, we'll need to see lower inflation in this sector," Fed chairman Jerome Powell told a Senate panel earlier this month.The Fed is also facing scrutiny for its oversight of the two failed banks. Fed supervisors reportedly identified problems with Silicon Valley Bank's risk-management practices years ago, but the problems were not corrected and the California lender had to be taken over by the U.S. government after suffering a massive bank run. "We need to have humility, and conduct a careful and thorough review of how we supervised and regulated this firm," said Michael Barr, the Fed's vice chairman for supervision.

FOMC Statement: Raise Rates 25 bp; "some additional policy firming may be appropriate" Fed Chair Powell press conference video here or on YouTube here, starting at 2:30 PM ET.
FOMC Statement: Recent indicators point to modest growth in spending and production. Job gains have picked up in recent months and are running at a robust pace; the unemployment rate has remained low. Inflation remains elevated.The U.S. banking system is sound and resilient. Recent developments are likely to result in tighter credit conditions for households and businesses and to weigh on economic activity, hiring, and inflation. The extent of these effects is uncertain. The Committee remains highly attentive to inflation risks.The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. In support of these goals, the Committee decided to raise the target range for the federal funds rate to 4-3/4 to 5 percent. The Committee will closely monitor incoming information and assess the implications for monetary policy. The Committee anticipates that some additional policy firming may be appropriate in order to attain a stance of monetary policy that is sufficiently restrictive to return inflation to 2 percent over time. In determining the extent of future increases in the target range, the Committee will take into account the cumulative tightening of monetary policy, the lags with which monetary policy affects economic activity and inflation, and economic and financial developments. In addition, the Committee will continue reducing its holdings of Treasury securities and agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities, as described in its previously announced plans. The Committee is strongly committed to returning inflation to its 2 percent objective.In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook. The Committee would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee's goals. The Committee's assessments will take into account a wide range of information, including readings on labor market conditions, inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and financial and international developments.

Fed Hikes by 25 Basis Points, to 5.0% at Top of Range, Pencils in One More Rate Hike, No Rate Cut in 2023, QT Continues: New Regime of Tightening while Providing Liquidity for Banks -- by Wolf Richter - The FOMC raised its five policy rates by 25 basis points, bringing the upper end of the range to 5.0%. The Fed has now hiked by 475 basis points in 12 months, far more than anyone had publicly imagined a year ago. The vote was unanimous. It hiked:

Federal funds rate target to a range between 4.75% and 5.0%.
Interest it pays the banks on reserves to 4.9%.
Interest it charges on overnight Repos to 5.0%.
Interest it pays on overnight Reverse Repos (RRPs) to 4.8%.
Primary credit rate to 5.0% (what banks pay to borrow at the “Discount Window,” part of the liquidity support for banks).

Further rate hikes are likely, according to the statement: “The Committee anticipates that some additional policy firming may be appropriate in order to attain a stance of monetary policy that is sufficiently restrictive to return inflation to 2 percent over time.” The phrase on the last statement, “ongoing rate increases will be appropriate,” was replaced by “some additional policy firming may be appropriate.” QT will continue on track, with the Treasury roll-off capped at $60 billion per month, and the MBS roll-off capped at $35 billion a month, same as in the prior months.Four times per year toward the end of each quarter, the Fed releases its “Summary of Economic Projections” (SEP), which includes the infamous “dot plot,” The last SEP was released at the December meeting. Today, the Fed released its updated SEP.The median projection for the federal funds rate at the end of 2023 remained at the projections from December, at 5.125%: One more rate hike in 2023, to a target range for the federal funds rate between 5.0% and 5.25%.No rate cut in 2023, same as the December dot plot. But seven of the 18 participants saw a rate of 5.375% or higher at the end of 2023, with four of them seeing 5.625% or higher:

1 expects: 4.875%
10 expect: 5.125% (median)
3 expect: 5.375%
3 expect: 5.625%
1 expects: 5.875%.

They raised this terminal rate at each of the SEPs since 2021. This was the first SEP that did not raise the projected peak rate, but kept it at 5.125%. The new regime: Tightening monetary policy while providing liquidity support for banks.By hiking rates and continuing QT while simultaneously providing liquidity support for the banks, the Fed made a clear distinction between monetary policy (rate hikes and QT) and liquidity support. And the Fed will be doing both at the same time.This distinction between monetary policy and liquidity support is the new regime among central banks.The ECB, at its meeting last week, said that there’s “no trade-off” between fighting inflation (monetary policy) while providing liquidity to the banks, if needed. It hiked by 50 basis points and promised to provide liquidity to the banks, if needed. They’re following the Bank of England which last fall provided liquidity support to the gilts market that had threatened to go into a death spiral under the pressure from pension funds facing margin calls over the infamous LDI (liability-driven investment) strategies that were imploding due to the surge in long-term yields. The BOE bought some long-dated bonds, which calmed down the gilts market and gave pension funds breathing room to clean up the mess.

Wall Street Reacts To Powell's 25bps Rate Hike In The Middle Of A Banking Crisis - The Fed decision has may have come and gone but the hot takes from Wall Street experts are just starting. Below we excerpt from some of the more notable reactions to the Fed's latest 25bps hike.

Jan Hatzius, chief economist at Goldman: The FOMC raised the target range for the federal funds rate by 0.25pp to 4.75-5%. The post-meeting statement noted that, while the “banking system is sound and resilient,” the recent banking stress is likely to “weigh on economic activity, hiring, and inflation." The FOMC removed the reference to “ongoing” hikes in the post-meeting statement and noted instead that “additional policy firming may be appropriate.” The Committee reiterated that it “remains highly attentive to inflation risks.” The median dot in the Summary of Economic Projections shows a funds rate of 5.125% at end-2023, unchanged from the December projections. The median projection in the SEP showed lower GDP growth and somewhat higher core inflation in 2023 and 2024.
Eric Winograd, senior US economist at Alliance Bernstein: “So far my takeaway is that the committee has left all the hard work for Chair Powell in his press conference. If you just look at the statement and the materials, there isn’t a change to their outlook from a few months ago, so he will have to describe how they are thinking about the banking issues as they relate to the economy.”
Quincy Krosby, chief global strategist for LPL Financial: “The statement acknowledged that the backdrop remains uncertain in terms of economic activity that may be constrained as financial conditions tighten. Certainly, the press conference will be more in-depth as reporters seek to ascertain the Fed’s forward trajectory, as the futures market sees another 25 basis point hike in May and the beginning of rate cuts in the summer.”
Peter Boockvar, author of the Boock Report: “I said this morning that this over-hyped meeting was most likely going to be a non-event and it certainly was. That said, the Powell press conference will certainly be a forum for more notable market moves. We’ll see how he does the financial stability vs price stability dance.”
Ira Jersey, strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence: “The 25-bp hike and dovish statement was in line with our expectations. Another hike to a peak policy rate will be highly dependent on bank turmoil not becoming systemic. We note that it is institutions with little to no reserves that have been affected so far. In fact, as deposits have moved from smaller banks to money-center banks, bank reserves have increased by about $200 billion, which has driven bank net interest margins higher even amid an inverted yield curve. The issue is the distribution of those profits -- smaller institutions aren’t able to take advantage.” […]“For the rate market, though the shape of the curve may shift abruptly over the next month, we think there may be a bias toward bull steepening going forward. Even if rate cuts don’t materialize as the market currently expects, it will continue to price for such an event for the time being.”
Eddy Vataru, portfolio manager at Osterweis Capital Management: “My biggest takeaway from this statement is the change here. The Committee anticipates that some additional policy firming may be appropriate. So I think they’re leaning on tighter conditions, courtesy the bank debacle. They might not hike at all anymore, or at the very least they’ll balance the two. And they’ll explicitly pay attention to financial conditions. They might be done. They’ll pause for a while though until they can’t. We had a good chunk of a hike priced in for next month but I think they might pause now.”
Bloomberg Economics’ US team says: “The Fed weighed the pros and cons of a wait-and-see approach against a continuation of hikes, and chose the latter. That signals an unconditional commitment to the price-stability leg of the Fed’s dual mandate. We think they made the right decision.”

The Fed's balance sheet is at a crossroads -The Federal Reserve would like to reduce the size of its balance sheet, but recent events are dictating otherwise. The Fed's balance sheet grew by roughly $300 billion last week, driven by emergency lending facilities rolled out to address the ongoing crisis in the banking system. The new loans effectively offset the central bank's last three months of balance sheet reductions. "These tools are now working at cross purposes," said Derek Tang, co-founder of the Washington-based research firm Monetary Policy Analytics. "It's really a microcosm of the wider tension at hand, which is that policy is too tight for the banking system, but not tight enough for inflation, for the macroeconomy." Fed Chair Jerome Powell, following the Federal Open Market Committee meeting on Wednesday, said the current balance sheet expansion is meant to be a limited phenomenon, drawing a distinction between recent actions and the central bank's asset buying campaign that ran between March 2020 and March 2022. "The intent and the effects of that [recent expansion] are very different from when we expand our balance sheet through purchases of longer-term securities," Powell said during a post-meeting press conference. "Large-scale purchases of long-term securities are really meant to alter the stance of policy by pushing up the price and [pushing] down longer term rates, which supports demand through channels we understand fairly well." That so-called quantitative easing during the height of COVID-19 more than doubled the balance sheet from $4.2 trillion to $8.9 trillion as the Fed bought Treasury securities and mortgage-backed securities to drive down the cost of capital. Last spring, the Fed began a quantitative tightening exercise to shed Treasuries and MBS from its balance sheet by allowing matured securities to expire without replacing them. The program has been running at its full, $95 billion per month clip since last September. Powell said shrinking the balance sheet in this way is still a necessary part of the Fed's strategy for combating persistent price inflation. Based on the core Personal Consumption Expenditure Index, the Fed's preferred measure, prices rose at a 5.5% annual rate last month, well above the 2% targeted by the central bank. Still, the failures of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank earlier this month and the ensuing volatility in the banking sector have increased liquidity needs among banks that have seen an uptick in withdrawal requests. To prevent those deposit demands from turning into more ruinous bank runs, the Fed has gone to great lengths to provide liquidity.

Fed, Central Banks Created the Current Crisis and Are on Course to Making Matters Worse - by Yves Smith - The incompetence of our financial regulators, most of all the Fed, is breathtaking. The great unwashed public and even wrongly-positioned members of the capitalist classes are suffering the consequences of Fed and other central banks being too fast out of the gate in unwinding years of asset-price goosing policies, namely QE and super low interest rates. The dislocations are proving to be worse than investors anticipated, apparently due to some banks having long-standing risk management and other weaknesses further stressed, and other banks that should have been able to navigate interest rate increases revealing themselves to be managed by monkeys. What is happening now is the worst sort of policy meets supervisory failure, of not anticipating that the rapid rate increases would break some banks. Here we are, in less than two weeks, at close to the same level of bank failures as in the 2007-2008 financial crisis. From CNN As we’ll explain in due course, the regulators’ habitual “bailout now, think about what if anything to do about taxpayer/systemic protection later” is the worst imaginable response to this mess. For instance, US authorities have put in place what is very close to a full backstop of uninsured deposits (with ironically a first failer, First Republic, with its deviant muni-bond-heavy balance sheet falling between the cracks). But they are not willing to say that. So many uninsured depositors remained in freakout mode, not understanding how the facilities work. Yet the close-to-complete backstop of uninsured deposits amounted to another massive extension of the bank safety net. The ultimate reason the Fed did something so dopey as to put through aggressive rate hikes despite obvious bank and financial system exposure was central bank mission creep, of taking up the mantle of economy-minder-in-chief. That orientation allowed the executive branch and Congress to engage in pork-oriented economic policy, resulting in industrial policy by default that bloated preferred sectors like the military industrial complex, the medical industry, higher education, real estate, and finance. But it is Congress and the Administration that have the much greater ability to devise and implement more targeted programs, and make a point of favoring ones that are countercyclical. Instead we have the Fed using the blunt instrument of interest rates to try to crush labor, when unlike the 1970s, labor bargaining power is weak and this inflation is largely the result of supply issues. As we predicted, the only way for te Fed get inflation down via interest rate increase would be to kill the economy stone cold dead. It appears to be reaching that end faster than anticipated by killing banks. Mind you, reversing super low interest rate policies would inevitably lower asset prices, particularly those of highly-responsive financial assets. But there are better and worse ways to administer painful remedies, and the Fed has been particularly inept. The central bank did do one thing right, which was to signal its rate increases way in advance. But it bizarrely ignored how the crypto collapse might affect depositor/investor perceptions of risk. And per the New York Times , it saw serious problems at Silicon Valley Bank, yet the official strictures didn’t rise to the level of wet noodle lashings: In 2021, a Fed review of the growing bank found serious weaknesses in how it was handling key risks. Supervisors at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, which oversaw Silicon Valley Bank, issued six citations. Those warnings, known as “matters requiring attention” and “matters requiring immediate attention,” flagged that the firm was doing a bad job of ensuring that it would have enough easy-to-tap cash on hand in the event of trouble. But the bank did not fix its vulnerabilities. By July 2022, Silicon Valley Bank was in a full supervisory review — getting a more careful look — and was ultimately rated deficient for governance and controls. It was placed under a set of restrictions that prevented it from growing through acquisitions. It became clear to the Fed that the firm was using bad models to determine how its business would fare as the central bank raised rates: Its leaders were assuming that higher interest revenue would substantially help their financial situation as rates went up, but that was out of step with reality. By early 2023, Silicon Valley Bank was in what the Fed calls a “horizontal review,” an assessment meant to gauge the strength of risk management. That checkup identified additional deficiencies — but at that point, the bank’s days were numbered. This shows that the Fed actually knew what a hot mess Silicon Valley Bank was, using risk models that assured it would be positioned 180 degrees wrong in the event of the absolutely gonna happen Fed interest rate increases. And what did the regulator do? Scold and restrict acquisitions. Help me. That plus restricting dividends was the sanction the Fed has sometimes applied to wayward big banks. But the Fed made public these big banks were in the doghouse, using shareholders to punish bank executives (remember all big US concerns have stock-price-linked executive pay). And these big banks are presumed to be in the business of consolidation, so barring acquisitions is a bit of a ding. By contrast, Silicon Valley Bank had just acquired Boston Private in July 2021, so it’s not as if it would be likely to be on the acquisition trail any time soon. The New York Times makes much of weakening of supervision of banks under $200 billion playing a role in this affair. But the regulators were on to the problems at Silicon Valley Bank. What appears to have been missing was not recognizing the Silicon Valley Bank was train wreck in the making, but the failure to make adequate interventions.

Don't Expect Looser Conditions Even As Fed Reverses Much Of QT - The Fed’s actions to stave off the banking crisis should not be taken as a loosening in financial conditions – far less QE – and in fact tighter conditions should be expected. The banking crisis led to an almost $300 billion rise in the Fed’s balance sheet last week, reversing almost half of the decline since QT began last June. But even more relevant is the change in reserves. Reserves are generally higher velocity, and therefore the true economic and financial impact from QT comes from the changes in reserves. Reserves are now actually higher than they were before QT began. First of all, this is not QE. QE is the open-ended purchase of securities. The Fed’s new BTFP facility (to which much of the discount window lending is likely to migrate) is essentially a repo facility (although with no haircut) with a maturity of up to one year. Furthermore it cannot be used as a limitless carry vehicle for banks to buy discounted debt, and repo it to the Fed at par. The small print shows that the BTFP can only be used for collateral that was owned by the borrower as of March 12. Secondly, financial conditions are likely to tighten even as the Fed’s balance sheet has recently expanded. The reserves that are leaving the smaller banks in the shape of bank deposits are going to larger banks, who don’t want them (one reason why deposit rates have remained stubbornly low). While bill rates are similar or lower to the rate offered by the RRP facility, much of the new reserves are poised to end up at the RRP, or the Treasury’s account at the Fed (the TGA) as they replenish it after any debt-ceiling resolution. So new reserves created could soon end up in the “black-hole” of the RRP facility or the TGA, leading to a steep fall in money velocity and hence much tighter financial conditions.

The Fed circumvented the debt ceiling to borrow billions for failed banks - As a consequence of its COVID crisis asset purchase program and the subsequent increases in interest rates needed to fight inflation, the Fed is now losing billions of dollars a week. The Fed’s most recent H.4.1 statement shows that the Fed has borrowed $41 billion to pay its cash losses, but these borrowings do not count as U.S. Treasury debt and are not counted against the congressional Treasury debt ceiling limit.In the past week, the Fed’s financial statement shows it borrowed an additional $143 billion to fund the FDIC’s bailout of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) and Signature Bank, even though the FDIC is supposed to fund bank bailouts using the deposit insurance fund and, if need be, by borrowing from the U.S. Treasury. Instead, the Fed borrowed these funds and lent them to the FDIC to keep these bank failures from reducing the Treasury’s cash balances. You may recall that the Treasury is already precluded from any additional borrowing under the current congressional debt limit.The Fed is now losing billions of dollars each month. The losses are a consequence of the Fed’s huge investment portfolio that yields around 2 percent but costs about 4.6 percent to finance. Measured using generally accepted accounting principles, the Fed is now approximately bankrupt. As operating losses mount in the months and years to come, its cumulative operating losses and the Fed’s GAAP equity capital deficit will grow.The Fed pays for its cash operating losses in two ways. It can print paper Federal Reserve Notes which pay no interest, or it can borrow reserve balances from banks and other financial institutions through its reverse repurchase program. When it borrows, it pays the lenders the interest rate on reserve balances (4.65 percent) or the rate on reverse repurchase agreements (4.55 percent).The Feds’ ability to fund these losses by printing paper currency is limited by the public’s demand for Federal Reserve Notes. As a practical matter, the Fed borrows most of these funds. Between March 1 — the week before the SVB and Signature Bank runs — and March 15, the last Wednesday data point available for reserve balances, the Fed’s total reserve and reverse repurchase borrowing increased by $175 billion.The FDIC is supposed to fund the cash expenses generated by failed bank receiverships by using balances in the deposit insurance fund, drawing on the FDIC’s line of credit with the U.S. Treasury or utilizing the Treasury’s Federal Financing Bank. As of year-end 2022, The deposit insurance fund had assets of a little over $128 billion invested in government securities. The Fed’s $143 billion loan to the FDIC indicates that the actual cash needs of the SVB and Signature Bank failures would have more than exhausted the FDIC’s deposit insurance fund. Beginning a potential banking crisis with a fully depleted insurance fund would not have instilled confidence in the administration’s claim that the banking system is “sound.”The FDIC is authorized to borrow up to $100 billion from the U.S. Treasury. It is required to repay the loan with interest using the proceeds of asset sales from failed bank receiverships. While the FDIC could have tapped this line of credit to help fund the SVB and Signature Bank failures, the Treasury’s general account balance with the Fed is down to about $278 billion, and the Treasury needs these balances to pay the Federal government’s expenses since it is precluded from issuing any new debt by the congressional debt ceiling.The FDIC can also borrow from the Treasury using the Federal Financing Bank (FFB). The FFB can purchase any obligation issued, sold, or guaranteed by a federal agency that does not have direct authority to borrow. The FDIC would pledge assets from failed bank receivership to the FFB which would in turn loan the FDIC funds to manage its failed bank receiverships. The FFB’s lending activities are included in the budget of the United States and any debt the Treasury would issue to fund FFB lending would count against the federal budget deficit and the congressional debt ceiling.So faced with cash demands to finance the SVB and Signature Bank failures, dwindling Treasury cash balances, and a congressional debt limit that precludes additional Treasury borrowings, the administration decided to circumvent the FDIC’s legally authorized funding sources and use Federal Reserve emergency lending powers to fund the FDIC bailout.

'Not QE' As Fed Trapped Between A 'Rock And A Hard Place' “QE” or Quantitative Easing has been the bull’s siren song for the last decade, but will “Not QE” be the same? Last week, amid a rash of bank insolvencies, government agencies took action to stem a potential banking crisis. The Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), the Treasury, and the Fed issued a Bank Term Lending Program with a $25 billion loan backstop to protect uninsured depositors from the Silicon Valley Bank failure. An orchestrated $30 billion uninsured deposit by 11 major banks into First Republic Bank followed. Those deposits would not occur without Federal Reserve and Treasury assurances. The details of the Bank Term Funding Program were described in the Federal Reserve press release.“The additional funding will be made available through the creation of a new Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP), offering loans of up to one year in length to banks, savings associations, credit unions, and other eligible depository institutions pledging U.S. Treasuries, agency debt and mortgage-backed securities, and other qualifying assets as collateral. These assets will be valued at par. The BTFP will be an additional source of liquidity against high-quality securities, eliminating an institution’s need to quickly sell those securities in times of stress.“With approval of the Treasury Secretary, the Department of the Treasury will make available up to $25 billion from the Exchange Stabilization Fund as a backstop for the BTFP. The Federal Reserve does not anticipate that it will be necessary to draw on these backstop funds.”Banks quickly tapped the program, as shown by a $152 billion surge in borrowings from the Federal Reserve. It is the most significant borrowing in one week since the depths of the Financial Crisis. (Refinitiv Chart: RealInvestmentAdvice.com, Data: St. Louis Federal Reserve) The importance of this program is that it will inject up to $2 Trillion into the financial system, Bloomberg reported.“‘The usage of the Fed’s Bank Term Funding Program is likely to be big,’ strategists led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou in London wrote in a client note Wednesday. While the largest banks are unlikely to tap the program, the maximum usage envisaged for the facility is close to $2 trillion, which is the par amount of bonds held by US banks outside the five biggest, they said.”As Bloomberg notes, major banks like JP Morgan likely will not tap the Feds lending program due to the stigma often attached to such usage. Moreover, there are roughly $3 Trillion in reserves in the U.S. banking system, of which the top five major banks hold a significant portion. However, as I noted last week in “Bank Runs:”The Fed caused this problem by aggressively hiking rates which dropped collateral values. Such has left some banks which didn’t hedge their loan/bond portfolios with insufficient collateral to cover the deposits during a ‘bank run.’As shown, the rapid increase in rates by the Fed drained bank reserves. (Refinitiv Chart: RealInvestmentAdvice.com, Data: St. Louis Federal Reserve)The demand by banks for liquidity has now put the Federal Reserve between a rock and a hard place. While the Fed remains adamant in its inflation fight, the BTFP may be the next QE program disguised as Not QE.

Liz Warren Makes War On Powell, And How 'Woke' SF Fed Chief Failed On SVB - Senator Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) says Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has racked up "an astonishing list of failures," which contributed to the implosion of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank, Bloomberg reports. "SVB and Signature accumulated risk and made dangerous decisions about how to manage that risk," said Warren in a Wednesday letter to Powell. "They did so in part because of greed and incompetence – but were allowed to do so under faulty supervision and in a weakened regulatory environment that you helped to create." "You owe the public an explanation," Warren continued, demanding that Powell respond to 11 questions by March 29. Warren's letter outlines several efforts to weaken regulations that were implemented following the 2008 financial crisis, which was enabled by lax supervision by the Fed. Warren also demanded that Powell recuse himself from an internal investigation by the Fed into regulatory failures concerning SVB - the results of which will be made public by Vice Chair Michael Barr by May 1. Instead, a bipartisan group of lawmakers wants an independent investigation. The Fed and other regulators announced emergency measures to help contain the budding crisis, including a new loan program from the central bank that will make is easier for banks to borrow to meet deposit withdrawal demand.In her letter, Warren also said Powell supported a 2018 law that exempted mid-sized banks like SVB from the same stringent oversight requirements faced by the biggest banks, a change that she and some other progressives have said contributed to SVB’s demise. Testifying about the bill at the time, Powell said the Fed would still have the ability to regulate mid-size banks if warranted, and that gave them “the tools that we need.” -Bloomberg"Make no mistake: your decisions aided and abetted this bank failure, and you bear your share of responsibility for it," wrote Warren.Meanwhile, woke 'Frisco Fed' chief Mary Daly has also come under fire. As Paul Sperry writes in the NY Post: "Wokeness has replaced competence and merit across the banking sector, and San Francisco Fed Chief Mary Daly is the poster child of this pernicious trend."A protege of Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and short-list candidate for Federal Reserve vice chair, Daly was supposed to be supervising Silicon Valley Bank but apparently was too busy playing politics and pushing woke agendas to regulate rogue banks like SVB, the second-biggest bank failure on record.Daly had other priorities, including climate change, George Floyd and Black Lives Matter, inequities between blacks and whites, LGBTQ+ rights and a host of other woke social-justice issues that had nothing to do with banking and finance. -NY Post

Rick Scott, Liz Warren Unveil Bipartisan Fed Oversight Bill - Sens. Rick Scott (R-FL) and Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) are introducing legislation on Wednesday which would replace the Federal Reserve's internal watchdog with one appointed by the president, following the failures of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank. "Our legislation fixes that by establishing a presidentially-appointed, Senate-confirmed inspector general at the Fed, like every other major government agency," reads a joint press release from Scott and Warren, who blame the collapse of the two bangs on regulatory failures at the US central bank, which currently employs an inspector general who reports to the Fed board, according to Reuters. According to Warren, this month's banking failures "have underscored the urgent need for a truly independent inspector general to hold Fed officials accountable for any lapses or wrongdoing." The legislation was due to be introduced later on Wednesday. According to a four-page legislative text, the measure would replace the Fed's inspector general with an independent IG who would oversee the Federal Reserve and the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau. The CFPB is an independent bureau within the central bank that is responsible for consumer protection within the financial sector. Warren played a key role in setting up the CFPB under Democratic President Barack Obama following the 2007-2008 financial crisis. The U.S. Supreme Court last month agreed to hear a case challenging the CFPB's funding structure, which some conservatives argue violates the U.S. Constitution. –Reuters "We may end up in one of these strange-bedfellows situations," said former House Financial Services Committee staffer and banking lobbyist, Chris Brown, referring to the bipartisan aspect of the legislation. "I do think there's overarching concern about what happened here." Meanwhile, House Financial Services Committee Chairman Patrick McHenry (R-NC) and Maxine Waters (D-CA) have scheduled a March 29 hearing which will feature testimony from Fed and FDIC officials.

Bank borrowing from Fed facilities stabilizes --Emergency borrowing from the Federal Reserve was a mixed bag, though largely unchanged this week, indicating to some observers that liquidity needs in the banking sector may have stabilized. Banks borrowed just under $164 billion from the discount window — the Fed's last-resort lending facility — and a new lending program created to quell concerns during the crisis, according to the central bank's weekly balance sheet report. That total was down $800 million from last week. "When you look at the Fed balance sheet, we definitely remain in a high-stress situation, but the situation is not getting any worse," UBS Equities analyst Erika Najarian said on CNBC on Friday morning. Also, no banks shifted from primary credit — which is available only to banks deemed to be in sound financial conditions — to secondary credit during the week, according to an analyst note published Friday by Moody's, indicating that "US bank supervisors continue to consider the banks that needed emergency support 'healthy' and not at elevated risk of imminent failure." Despite the overall fall in borrowing levels seen last week, bank usage of the Fed's new lending facility, the Bank Term Funding Program, ticked up considerably, from $11.9 billion borrowed last week to $53.7 billion this week. That surge in usage was offset by a $42.6 billion fall in discount window borrowing. Steven Kelly, senior research associate at the Program on Financial Stability at Yale University's School of Management, attributed this gravitation to the BTFP, also known as the super discount window, to the program's "more generous" terms. Borrowers can post collateral to the new facility at full par value rather than at a discount to market value, as is the case for the traditional discount window. Loans can also have terms of up to one year instead of 90 days. Despite the similar size changes at the two facilities, Kelly said the rise in super discount window borrowing is not necessarily tied to the fall in traditional discount window use. "Even in the absence of the BTFP, we may have seen discount window borrowing start to come down," he said.

Recent banking failures add another reason to halt interest rate hikes -EPI Blog by Josh Bivens -The debate over the Federal Reserve’s proper course of action for the rest of 2023 was getting a little stagnant in recent months. The argument centered on whether inflation’s persistence was really a sign of an overheated economy that still needed cooling or if it was due to stubbornly large—but dampening —ripplesstemming from the huge pandemic and war shocks of previous years. The recent failures of Silicon Valley and Signature banks and chaos in other corners of the banking sector definitely provide a new twist to this debate. My view on what the Fed should do now in the wake of banking failures is relatively straight-forward:

Before the Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) failure, it was already clear that the Fed should pause interest rate hikes at this week’s meeting, based largely on consistent deceleration of nominal wage growth.
The SVB failure and subsequent banking turmoil are far more likely to be demand-destroying events than not. If one thought the Fed already should be reducing the pace of their rate hikes (or even pausing entirely) due to labor market cooling, the fallout from SVB just means this cooling will happen more quickly and hence the case for halting further rate hikes is stronger.
It is a genuine problem that interest rate hikes of nearly 5% in a year cause this much distress in the financial sector, indicating a clear failure of bank management and supervision. These failures should be addressed going forward. But they exist today and the fallout of them clearly provides another argument for standing pat on further rate increases.

The January consumer price index (CPI) data came in uncomfortably hot after months of good readings. The February CPI data showed a largely sideways movement in inflation. Worse, revisions to 2022 CPI data showed more disinflation in mid-2022 and less in late 2022—providing slightly weaker evidence of consistent disinflation over the course of the year. However, nominal wage growth—what many have called a “supercore” measure of inflation—has consistently cooled over the course of 2022 and early 2023. Occasionally a single month of data has shown an uptick of wage growth and concerns are raised, but new data then show continued cooling. Figure A below shows annualized rates of wage growth for the latest three months relative to the prior three months. It shows these rates of wage growth for the initial releases of this data from December 2022 to March 2023. While wage growth blipped up in the December 2022 and February 2023 reports, the most recent report shows a clear pattern of consistent nominal wage deceleration.This deceleration of nominal wage growth should be near-dispositive for arguments about the proper path of interest rates. If the Fed is insistent on 2% price inflation in the long run, this implies that nominal wages can grow at this 2% inflation rate plus the rate of productivity growth, which we will take as 1.5%. This 3.5% wage growth target, however, assumes no increase in the share of total income accruing to labor rather than capital. Given the large decline in labor’s share of income so far in the pandemic-driven business cycle, this means that several years of wage growth as high as 4.5% could be sustained while still seeing price inflation at the Fed’s 2% target. Nominal wage growth (as shown in Figure A) has been running at or below 4.5% for several months now. In short, wage growth is now running where it should be given the state of the business cycle and the Fed’s 2% inflation target—meaning the Fed should stand pat on any further interest rate hikes.

Interest Payments On Treasury Debt Up 29% YoY - Here is a follow-up on last week’s chart with some excellent granular detail. Interest payments on the national debt during the current fiscal year (October to February) are up 29 percent y/y, one of the fastest-growing expenditure components of the Federal budget (see table below). Revenues are down, especially individual income taxes, which may reflect the slowing economy. Theory dictates (ceteris paribus) that government tax revenues should be rising with inflation, however. Hmmm. The fact income tax receipts are lower but self-employment tax revenues (1099 employees) are higher, coupled with what is happening with the employment data, can we hypothesize that high income earners are leaving the workforce (or getting fired) and starting their own businesses, such as consultants, for example? Or could it be just a timing issue? The overall deficit is exploding, btw, up 50 percent. If the current situation normalizes and Treasury securities lose their flight-to-quality bid, interest rates are going to spike faster than one of Elon’s rockets.

Chicago Fed: Economic Growth Declined in February - "Index suggests economic growth declined in February" This is the headline for this morning's release of the Chicago Fed's National Activity Index, and here is the opening paragraph from the report: Led by declines in production-related indicators, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) fell to –0.19 in February from +0.23 in January. All four broad categories of indicators used to construct the index made negative contributions in February, and three categories deteriorated from January. The index’s three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, increased to –0.13 in February from –0.27 in January. [more] The Chicago Fed's National Activity Index (CFNAI) is a monthly indicator designed to gauge overall economic activity and related inflationary pressure. It is a composite of 85 monthly indicators as explained in thisbackground PDF file on the Chicago Fed's website. The index is constructed so a zero value for the index indicates that the national economy is expanding at its historical trend (average) rate of growth. Negative values indicate below-average growth, and positive values indicate above-average growth. The first chart below shows the recent behavior of the index since 2007 with a callout to the past year. The green dots show the indicator itself, which is quite noisy. The three-month moving average (CFNAI-MA3) is more useful and consistent as an indicator of the actual trend for economic activity. For a broad historical context, here is the complete CFNAI historical series dating from March 1967.

Musk Blasts Biden After Prez Lies Twice About '3% Billionaire Tax'- On Saturday, President Biden's social media galaxy brains tweeted out a twice-corrected lie, quoting the president telling said lie, that billionaires are getting away paying just 3% of their average earnings in taxes. "You know the average tax billionaires pay? THREE PERCENT. No billionaire should be paying a lower tax than somebody working as a schoolteacher or firefighter," reads the erroneous tweet. To which Musk replied: "I paid 53% taxes on my Tesla stock options (40% Federal & 13% state), so I must be lifting the average!" "I also paid more income tax than anyone ever in the history of Earth for 2021 and will do that again in 2022." I certainly agree that everyone should pay taxes and not engage in elaborate tax-avoidance schemes. Would be curious to hear how these other “billionaires” are so good at avoiding taxes! We should get rid of GRATs, but maybe other things too. — Elon Musk (@elonmusk) March 18, 2023 .. As Ian Bremmer points out, "the 3% number isn't even close to true." Bremmer's tweet includes a screenshot from CNN, which fact check's the claim and notes that it's from a 2021 finding that found the 400 wealthiest billionaire families pay an average of 8.2% of their income in federal taxes. In response so Biden's original claim that was fact checked, the White House published a corrected transcript.

Rhetoric over US debt limit boils over as Republicans, Democrats joust - (Reuters) - Partisan sniping over raising U.S. borrowing authority ratcheted up on Friday when House of Representatives Speaker Kevin McCarthy accused President Joe Biden of ignoring the issue, even as Republicans have failed to detail budget cuts they want before allowing a debt limit increase. At a news conference in the U.S. Capitol, the Republican speaker attacked the Democratic president for not holding negotiating sessions with him since an initial meeting early last month. "Unfortunately the president doesn't think it's important," McCarthy said when asked about how talks on the debt ceiling were going. The government faces a historic default on its debts without legislation to raise the $31.4 trillion debt limit. Biden and leading Democrats in Congress have urged McCarthy to unveil Republicans' plans for cutting spending, saying that additional meetings before that happens would be fruitless. "House Republicans have long called producing a budget a basic function of government, even suggesting that if members of Congress don’t pass a budget, they shouldn’t get a paycheck," Andrew Bates, deputy White House press secretary, said in an email. "President Biden has produced a detailed budget that reduces the deficit by $3 trillion over the next decade while continuing to invest in America, and House Republicans should do the same so everybody can truly see how the numbers add up." Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer told reporters on Thursday that Democrats welcome budget talks anytime. But McCarthy "has got to show us his plan. To just sit down and not have a plan, what's the point? What are you going to say, 'Thanks for the coffee?'" The House Budget Committee, which is controlled by Republicans, has not yet produced a fiscal 2024 budget blueprint to shape the debate over federal spending beginning in October and the need to raise the debt limit. Meantime, Republicans want Democrats to signal support for significant spending cuts before providing the votes needed in Congress to increase the Treasury Department's borrowing authority. The non-partisan Congressional Budget Office has estimated the Treasury Department will exhaust "extraordinary measures," which are keeping debt payments on schedule, sometime in the July-September time frame.

Pentagon Leaders Say New Budget Will Help Prepare for War With China - Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Mark Milley told Congress at a Thursday hearing that the Pentagon’s 2024 budget request will help the country prepare for a future war with China.Milley insisted the Pentagon’s massive $842 billion budget request is meant to deter war but said it will also prepare the US military to fight one. He told the House Appropriations subcommittee on defense that deterring and preparing for a conflict “is extraordinarily expensive, but it’s not as expensive as fighting a war. And this budget prevents war and prepares us to fight it if necessary.”The Pentagon identified China as the “most comprehensive and serious challenge to US national security strategy” in the 2022 National Defense Strategy, and lately, US military leaders have been speaking more explicitly about how they’re preparing for a direct war with China despite the risk of nuclear war. President Biden has also vowed to defend Taiwan in the event of a Chinese attack.Milley said China’s actions “are moving it down the path toward confrontation and potential conflict with its neighbors and possibly the United States,” echoing similar warnings made by Chinese officials.Chinese Foreign Minister Qin Gang warned earlier this month that if the US doesn’t change course on its military buildup in the Asia Pacific and other policies aimed at China, it will lead to “conflict and confrontation.” The Pentagon’s budget request will further expand the US military footprint in the region by funding a buildup plan known as the Pacific Deterrence Initiative.“This budget includes a 40 percent increase over last year’s for the Pacific Deterrence Initiative to an all-time high of $9.1 billion,” Austin said at the hearing. “That will fund a stronger force posture, better defenses for Hawaii and Guam, and deeper cooperation with our allies and partners.”For China hawks in Congress, what the Pentagon has asked to spend in 2024 is not enough. Including funding for other agencies, President Biden’s military spending request totals $886.4 billion. Congress is expected to add tens of billions more as it did with Biden’s 2022 and 2023 requests.

White House Says It Opposes a Ceasefire in Ukraine -The White House has come out against a ceasefire in Ukraine ahead of Chinese President Xi Jinping’s trip to Moscow to potentially mediate between Russian President Vladimir Putin and his counterpart in Kyiv.Xi is due to arrive in Moscow on Monday and is expected to speak virtually to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky following his talks with Putin. Xi’s trip comes after Beijing released a 12-point peace plan for Ukraine that called for the two sides to cease hostilities and for peace talks to begin.Zelensky expressed openness to China’s proposal, but it was immediately rejected by President Biden.“We don’t support calls for a ceasefire right now,” White House National Security Council spokesman John Kirby said on Friday, according to Newsweek. “We certainly don’t support calls for a ceasefire that would be called for by the PRC in a meeting in Moscow that would simply benefit Russia.”Kirby’s comments come as Ukrainian and Russian forces continue to battle in the Donbas city of Bakhmut, which has become known as the “meat grinder” due to the heavy casualties. Ukraine has been pouring in barely-trained conscripts to fight in the city, and the US thinks Kyiv is wasting too many resources in the battle. The US wants Ukraine to launch a counteroffensive in the spring, although a senior Ukrainian official told The Washington Post last week that Kyiv doesn’t have the resources to pull it off. Kirby’s reasoning for opposing a ceasefire at this time is that a pause in fighting could concede territory to Moscow.Kirby said the ceasefire would, “in effect, recognize Russia’s gains, and its attempt to conquer his neighbor’s territory by force, allowing Russian troops to continue to occupy sovereign Ukrainian territory and, of course, it would be another continued violation of the UN Charter.”The US and its allies discouraged peace talks and mediation efforts that were conducted shortly after Russia’s February 2022 invasion. At that time, Moscow was seeking a deal that would have reverted to the pre-invasion territorial lines. But now, Ukraine stands to lose much more as Russia has annexed the territory it controls in the Ukrainian oblasts of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia and the breakaway Donbas republics of Donetsk and Luhansk.

US Unveils $350M More Defense Aid For Ukraine, Condemns Xi-Putin Meeting On Monday US Secretary of State Antony Blinken once again emphasized that the Biden administration remains ready to support Ukraine "for as long as it takes."He also unveiled the latest defense aid package - at $350 million including more missiles and air defense missiles, listed among these more High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS) and howitzers, ammo for Bradley Infantry Fighting Vehicles, high-speed anti-radiation missiles, anti-tank weapons as well as and riverine boats, according to The Hill. "This week, as Russia’s unconscionable war of aggression against Ukraine continues at great human cost, we are again reminded of the boundless courage and steadfast resolve of the Ukrainian people, and the strong support for Ukraine across the international community," Blinken said. The Hill reviews concerning total defense aid pledged thus far, "With Monday’s announcement, the United States has now committed more than $32 billion in lethal aid to Ukraine through presidential drawdown since Russia first attacked the country more than a year ago."Blinken also on Monday condemned the visit of China's President Xi to Putin to talk Ukraine peace..."That President Xi is traveling to Russia days after the International Criminal Court issued an arrest warrant for President Putin suggests that China feels no responsibility to hold the Kremlin accountable for the atrocities committed in Ukraine, and instead of even condemning them, it would rather provide diplomatic cover for Russia to continue to commit those very crimes," Blinken said.Xi Jinping’s visit "suggests that China feels no responsibility to hold the president accountable for the atrocities committed in Ukraine," the US top diplomat stated.

Blinken slams Xi for providing ‘diplomatic cover’ to Putin during Moscow visit - Secretary of State Antony Blinken called out Chinese President Xi Jinping on Monday for providing “diplomatic cover” to Russian leader Vladimir Putin amid the Kremlin’s ongoing war with neighboring Ukraine. Speaking at a press briefing, Blinken said the U.S expects that China may use Xi’s Moscow visit to reiterate calls for a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine. “The fundamental element of any plan for ending the war in Ukraine and producing a just and durable peace must be upholding the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine, in accordance with the United Nations Charter,” he said. “Any plan that does not prioritize this critical principle is a stalling tactic at best or is merely seeking to facilitate an unjust outcome. That is not constructive diplomacy.” Blinken added if China is truly committed to supporting a ceasefire between the two countries, it should engage in peace talks with Ukraine and its leader, Volodymyr Zelensky, adding Russia has no genuine interest in a peace agreement. “That President Xi is traveling to Russia days after the International Criminal Court issued an arrest warrant for President Putin suggests that China feels no responsibility to hold the Kremlin accountable for the atrocities committed in Ukraine, and instead of even condemning them, it would rather provide diplomatic cover for Russia to continue to commit those very crimes,” the top U.S. diplomat added in his press briefing.

US Officials Really, REALLY Want You To Know The US Is The World’s “Leader” – Caitlin Johnstone - In response to questions he received during a press conference on Monday about Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin cementing a “new era” in strategic partnership between China and Russia, the White House National Security Council’s John Kirby made no fewer than seven assertions that the US is the “leader” of the world.Here are excerpts from his comments:

“The two countries have grown closer. But they are both countries that chafe and bristle at U.S. leadership around the world.”
“And in China’s case in particular, they certainly would like to challenge U.S. leadership around the world.“
“But these are not two countries that have, you know, decades-long experience working together and full trust and confidence. It’s a burgeoning of late based on America’s increasing leadership around the world and trying to check that.”
“Peter, these are two countries that have long chafed, as I said to Jeff — long chafed at U.S. leadership around the world and the network of alliances and partnerships that we have.”
“And we work on those relationships one at a time, because every country on the continent is different, has different needs and different expectations of American leadership.”
“That’s the power of American convening leadership. And you don’t see that power out of either Russia or China.”
“But one of the reasons why you’re seeing that tightening relationship is because they recognize that they don’t have that strong foundation of international support for what they’re trying to do, which is basically challenge American leadership around the world.”

The illusory truth effect is a cognitive bias which causes people to mistake something they have heard many times for an established fact, because the way the human brain receives and interprets information tends to draw little or no distinction between repetition and truth. Propagandists and empire managers often take advantage of this glitch in our wetware, which is what’s happening when you see them repeating key phrases over and over again that they want people to believe.US empire managers are of course getting very assertive about the narrative that they are the world’s “leader” because that self-appointed “leadership” is being challenged by China, and the nations which support it with increasing openness like Russia. Most of the major international news stories of our day are either directly or indirectly related to this dynamic, wherein the US is struggling to secure unipolar planetary domination by thwarting China’s rise and undermining its partners.The message they’re putting out is, “This is our world. We’re in charge. Anyone who claims otherwise is freakish and abnormal, and must be opposed.”

China Hits Back at US Criticism of Ukraine Peace Efforts -China on Wednesday hit back at US criticism of Beijing’s efforts to push for peace talks to end the fighting in Ukraine as Chinese President Xi Jinping concluded his three-day visit to Moscow.National Security Council spokesman John Kirby told reporters on Tuesdaythat China was not “impartial” due to its relationship with Russia, comments that drew a rebuke from the Chinese Foreign Ministry.“The US says China’s position cannot be seen as impartial. Does that mean pouring weapons into the conflict should be seen as impartial? Does that mean causing the crisis to escalate should be seen as impartial?” Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Wang Wenbin said.Wang described Xi’s trip to Moscow as a “journey of friendship, cooperation and peace” and called on the US to stop stoking the conflict in Ukraine. “We call on the US to reflect on its own role in the Ukraine issue, stop fueling the flames, and stop deflecting the blame on China. We will continue to stand firm on the side of peace and dialogue,” he said.The US has come out strongly against any Chinese efforts to foster negotiations between Russia and Ukraine. Before Xi’s trip, Kirby said the US was against calls for a ceasefire, and Secretary of State Antony Blinken said Monday that the world “should not be fooled” by Beijing’s initiative.Xi is expected to soon speak with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky for the first time since Russia invaded Ukraine on February 24, 2022. Zelensky has expressed an openness to a 12-point peace plan Beijing released and wants to talk with Xi, although other top Ukrainian officialshave ruled out the idea of negotiating with Putin. Besides discussing Ukraine, Xi and Putin also vowed to strengthen trade and other aspects of their partnership, including increasing transactions using the yuan, efforts the two nations see as vital to creating a more multipolar world. When departing the Kremlin, Xi told Putin: “Right now there are changes – the likes of which we haven’t seen for 100 years – and we are the ones driving these changes together.”

US Offers Slovakia Helicopters as Reward for Sending MiG-29s to Ukraine - The US has offered Slovakia attack helicopters and Hellfire missiles as a reward for sending Ukraine Soviet-made MiG-29 fighter jets.Slovak Defense Minister Jaroslav Nad said the deal would be for 12 Bell AH-1Z attack choppers, 500 AGM-114 Hellfire II missiles, and training. The sale is worth about $1 billion, and under the offer, the US would provide $660 million in financing, and Slovakia would pay $340 million.Separately, the EU will compensate Slovakia with $213 million for providing Ukraine with the MiG-29s. Nad said the offer was still being considered but added acquiring the helicopters would “significantly increase the defense capability of Slovakia.”Without its MiG-29s, Slovakia doesn’t have an air force, and Poland and the Czech Republic are now monitoring the land-locked country’s airspace. Slovakia signed a deal in 2018 to purchase 14 US-made F-16 fighter jets, but they aren’t expected to be delivered until 2024.The US offer means that Washington must have been involved in Slovakia’s decision to send its 13 MiG-29s to Ukraine, which came after Poland announced it would provide Kyiv with the Soviet-made jets. The move makes Poland and Slovakia the first NATO members to arm Ukraine with fighter jets.In March 2022, the Pentagon ruled out sending Polish MiG-29s to Ukraine over concerns that it could escalate the war. NATO officials believed the provision of fighter jets could be viewed in Moscow as the alliance directly entering the war. But one year later, the escalation concerns waned.

Four Leading Republicans Urge Biden to Send Cluster Bombs to Ukraine - Four leading Republicans in Congress have sent a letter to President Bidenurging him to provide Kyiv with cluster bombs, controversial munitions that endanger civilians by spreading small bomblets over large areas.Due to the harm they cause civilians, cluster bombs have been banned by over 100 countries under the 2008 Convention on Cluster Munitions. But Russia, Ukraine, and the US are not signatories to the treaty.The letter to Biden was signed by Rep. Michael McCaul (R-TX), the chair of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, Rep. Mike Rogers (R-AL), the chair of the House Armed Services Committee, Sen. Roger Wicker (R-MS), the ranking member of the Senate Armed Services Committee, and Jim Risch (R-ID), the ranking member of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee.Ukraine has been asking the US to send cluster bombs, specifically the MK-20, an air-delivered cluster bomb, and a 155mm artillery cluster shell. Both Russian and Ukrainian forces have used cluster munitions in the war. Kyiv had used them years earlier in the Donbas war against populated areas of Donestk in 2014.In the letter, the Republican lawmakers urged Biden to send cluster munitions, including the Dual Purpose Improved Conventional Munitions (DPICM), which have several types of variants. DPICM are available as 155mm artillery rounds, GMLRS rockets that Ukraine has been using with the HIMARS rocket systems, and ATACMS, missiles that have a range of up to 190 miles that the US has not yet provided Kyiv.According to the lawmakers, the US has three million rounds of DPICMs available. They argue sending the widely-banned munition could alleviate pressure on other US stockpiles. They said Ukrainian leaders are aware of the “risks to noncombatants associated” with cluster bombs but say the risk to civilians “pales in comparison” to the threat posed by Russia.

Seymour Hersh: CIA Planted Nord Stream Cover-Up Story in the Media -- Investigative journalist Seymour Hersh published an article on Substack on Wednesday that said the CIA was instructed to come up with a cover story for the Nord Stream bombings that was fed to The New York Times and the German newspaper Die Zeit.The cover-up story was created to shift blame from the US after Hersh’sbombshell report published on February 8 that said President Biden ordered the attack on the Nord Stream natural gas pipelines, which connect Russia to Germany. “It was a total fabrication by American intelligence that was passed along to the Germans, and aimed at discrediting your story,” Hersh was told by a source within the American intelligence community.Hersh said that the CIA was ordered to come up with a cover story after President Biden met with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz in Washington on March 3. Scholz’s visit was very brief and did not include the routine joint press briefing that usually follows a meeting between the president and another world leader. Hersh was told that his report detailing how the US took out Nord Stream was discussed by Biden and Scholz.Hersh writes: “I was told by someone with access to diplomatic intelligence that there was a discussion of the pipeline exposé and, as a result, certain elements in the Central Intelligence Agency were asked to prepare a cover story in collaboration with German intelligence that would provide the American and German press with an alternative version for the destruction of Nord Stream 2.”The result of the CIA’s work was published in The New York Times and Die Zeit on March 7. The New York Times report was very vague and said US officials are now claiming the Nord Stream bombings might have been carried out by a “pro-Ukrainian group.” The Die Zeit report claimed German investigators believe it was carried out by six people using a yacht rented in Poland that was owned by two Ukrainians. Other Western media outlets published similar articles reinforcing the cover story in the following days.Hersh said the information The New York Times received “originated with a group of CIA experts in deception and propaganda whose mission was to feed the newspaper a cover story—and to protect a president who made an unwise decision and is now lying about it.”The cover story offers a radically different narrative than what Hersh’s February 8 report alleges. Using anonymous sourcing, Hersh reported that the Nord Stream pipelines were destroyed by explosives planted by US Navy divers in June 2022 under the cover of NATO drills in the Baltic Sea. The operation was done in coordination with Norway, and a Norwegian spy plane detonated the explosives by dropping a sonar buoy on September 26, 2022.

China, Russia, Iran Hold Joint Military Drills in Gulf of Oman – WSJ - China, Russia and Iran launched joint military exercises on Wednesday in the Gulf of Oman in the latest sign of Beijing’s efforts to expand its influence in the Middle East. China’s Defense Ministry said the five-day exercise would deepen cooperation between the three nations, posing a growing challenge to U.S. interests in the region.

US Sails Warship Near Chinese-Controlled Islands in the South China Sea - On Thursday, the US sailed a warship near the Chinese-controlled Paracel Islands in the South China Sea amid heightened tensions between Washington and Beijing in the region.China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA) said it drove away the guided-missile destroyer USS Milius after it “illegally” sailed near the disputed islands. The US Navy’s Seventh Fleet disputed China’s claims and said the Milinus “was not expelled.”The US doesn’t recognize most of China’s claims to the South China Sea and began challenging them during the Obama administration by sending warships near Chinese-controlled islands, maneuvers dubbed “Freedom of Navigation Operations.”China and several of its Southeast Asian neighbors have overlapping claims to the South China Sea. The Paracel Islands are claimed by China, Taiwan, and Vietnam.The dispute has become a major source of tensions between the US and China as Washington has become involved and has increased its military activity in the South China Sea.The US also backs the Philippines’ claims against China and has been deepening military cooperation with Manila. The US and the Philippines signed a deal last month that will give the US military access to four more bases in the Philippines, including one in Palawan, a Philippine province facing the South China Sea. China is strongly against the US military expansion in the Philippines and has made that clear to Manila. Beijing is not happy that some of the new bases will be in northern areas of the Philippines, facing Taiwan.

Is the United States Creating a ‘Legion of Doom’? - Moscow has directed a lot of vitriol toward the West over the past year. The volume of that rhetoric sometimes drowns out an awkward fact about Moscow’s foreign policy reorientation away from the West and toward allies like China and Iran: Russian elites are not exactly thrilled with their new partners. In my conversations with Russian academics, there has been plenty of grumbling about the meager quality of Chinese support, for example. This reflects a longstanding Russian hubris toward its eastern neighbor dating back to the days of Stalin and Mao. The Russian disdain directed toward Iran is even greater.These feelings are mutual. In my conversations with Chinese diplomats, they express considerable exasperation with Russia’s actions in Ukraine. For them, the invasion upset a strategic situation that they believed was favorable to China. Ordinary Chinese people still harbor resentments toward Russia; I have heard Chinese students vent in great detail about territorial land grabs by 19th century tsars that have yet to be reversed. Similarly, my Russian colleagues have complained that their bilateral relations with Iran have been stymied by Tehran’s historical grievances.Despite these lingering resentments, however, the past year has taught all of these countries an important lesson: as much as they might have issues with each other, they have much bigger issues with the United States. Over the past year, while imposing extensive sanctions on Russia, the United States has also taken an extremely hawkish turn on China. The policies expressing this sentiment range from stringent export controls to public support for Taiwan to the possible banning of TikTok. At the same time, the Biden administration has essentially continued status quo policies toward Iran. Efforts to revive the Iranian nuclear agreement have failed.This leaves all three countries under various degrees of U.S.-led sanctions regimes — and, unsurprisingly, they are starting to work more closely together. Iran is in the final stages of achieving full membership in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, a security forum led by China and Russia. China helped broker an entente between Iran and Saudi Arabia. NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg is “increasingly concerned” that China might supply weapons to Russia to assist Ukraine. The relationship between Iran and Russia has mushroomed during the course of the war in Ukraine, with NSC spokesman John Kirby labeling it “a full-scale defense partnership.”

Interest Rate Hikes and IMF Bailouts: the US Tries to Roll Back Chinese Influence in the Global South -In their February paper, “US Dollar Primacy in an Age of Economic Warfare,” presented at the West Point Symposium on “Order, Counter-Order, Disorder” Michael Kao and Michael St. Pierre argue for using a stronger US dollar as geopolitical leverage:Not only are the effects of interest rates hikes magnified in other countries due to a myriad of structural and idiosyncratic economic fragilities previously discussed, the confluence of wide USD adoption with cyclical USD strength … make the USD a potent geopolitical lever masquerading as a domestic fight against inflation. National Power lends the USD dominance in adoption, while an opportunistic fight against inflation lends the USD cyclical strength for geopolitical leverage.The US and US-led institutions are already trying to sideline China in countries struggling to make debt payments. And these efforts are likely to continue as interest rates rise and more countries in the Global South are unable to repay loans. A recent UNDP paper stated that 52 developing countries are suffering from severe debt problems.China is the world’s largest bilateral creditor, and this is especially true for countries that are part of Beijing’s Belt and Road Initiative and/or for countries that possess strategically important natural resources. Washington estimates that Chinese lending ranges from $350 billion to a trillion dollars.In recent years, western officials and media have ratcheted up criticism of China’s lending practices, claiming Beijing is putting its boot on the neck of countries, holding back their development, and is seizing assets offered as collateral.Deborah Bräutigam, the Director of the China Africa Research Initiative at the Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies, has written that this is “ a lie, and a powerful one.” She wrote, “our research shows that Chinese banks are willing to restructure the terms of existing loans and have never actually seized an asset from any country.”Even researchers at Chatham House admit there’s nothing nefarious about China’s lending, explaining that it has instead created a debt trap for China. That is becoming more evident as nations are unable to repay, largely due to the economic fallout from the pandemic, the Nato proxy war against Russia in Ukraine, inflation, and rising interest rates.These confluence of events hitting developing countries are entangling China in multilateral talks that include US-backed institutions like the IMF. Beijing’s preference has always been to try and tackle debt repayment issues at a bilateral level, typically by extending maturities rather than accepting write-downs on loans.But US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and company continue to parrot the talking point that China’s lending is harming countries, and in countries unable to repay their international debts, the West and China are increasingly at odds.

Taiwan’s president to stop in U.S., raising prospect of friction with China— Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen will visit the United States at the end of the month, stopping over in New York and California where she will meet a top U.S. lawmaker on her way to and from Central America to shore up ties with the island democracy’s few remaining diplomatic allies. With Beijing aggressively pushing to upend the U.S.-led international order, Honduran President Xiomara Castro last week said her country was looking to forge diplomatic relations with China, which means it would cut off official relations with Taiwan. The move would leave just 13 countries in the world that recognize Taiwan. Tsai will travel from March 29 to April 7, stopping first in New York before heading to Guatemala and Belize and traveling through Los Angeles on the return leg, a spokesperson from Taiwan’s office of the president confirmed on Tuesday without providing an itinerary for any U.S. engagements. The trip, which will mark Tsai’s seventh visit to the United States since taking office in 2016, will include a meeting with House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) at the Reagan Library in California on April 5, according to people familiar with the matter, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because the plans have not been announced. Tsai’s meeting with McCarthy comes in the wake of a highly publicized visit by then-House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) to Taiwan last August, which resulted in a retaliatory show of Chinese military force that included ballistic missiles fired over Taiwan and into Japan’s exclusive economic zone. In response to the announcement, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Wang Wenbin said on Tuesday that Beijing “firmly opposes the leader of the Taiwan region sneaking off to the U.S. for any reason.” Advertisement Wang repeated previous accusations that the visit constituted a “hollowing out” of Washington’s commitment to the one-China policy — which neither challenges nor endorses Beijing’s claims over the island — and called Taiwan’s pursuit of independence “a dead end.” “Any attempts by Taiwan to collude with foreign forces to provoke independence is doomed to fail,” he said. A senior U.S. official in the Biden administration said in a briefing Monday night that the one-China policy remains unchanged. “The United States opposes any unilateral changes to the status quo by either side,” the official said, on the condition of anonymity for a background briefing. “We don’t support Taiwan independence, and we expect cross strait differences to be resolved by peaceful means.”

Hawley introducing legislation revoking China’s normal trade relations status -- Sen. Josh Hawley (R-Mo.) is launching a legislative push to end the normalized trade relationship between the U.S. and China as tensions between the two countries flare. The bill from Hawley, which his office said is set to be introduced on Tuesday, would revoke normalized trade relation status from China within two years. The bill was first reported by Politico.Hawley’s legislation would allow the U.S. to subject Chinese imports to higher tariffs and allow the president to place even higher tax rates on select imports. The normalized trade relationship between the two countries has existed since 2000. In that time China grew to be America’s leading trade partner, with nearly $560 billion in two-way trade between the two countries in 2020. Former President Trump frequently called out the trade relationship with China, arguing the U.S. was getting taken advantage of and pointing to the U.S.’s trade deficit with China, which was more than $285 billion in 2020. Many Republicans in Congress are now calling on the Biden administration to showcase strength against the Chinese government. The rupture between the U.S. and China was accentuated when a suspected Chinese spy balloon flew across the U.S. earlier this year. The bill from Hawley also comes as Chinese President Xi Jinping visited with Russian President Vladimir Putin this week. The U.S. has warned Chinese leadership to not provide Russia with lethal aid in its war against Ukraine.

McCarthy expects US House will pass legislation to address TikTok - (Reuters) - U.S. House Speaker Kevin McCarthy thinks lawmakers will pass bipartisan legislation to address national security worries about Chinese-owned short video app TikTok, he said on Friday, and called the testimony of the company's CEO "very concerning." TikTok CEO Shou Zi Chew appeared before a U.S. House Committee for about five hours on Thursday and lawmakers from both parties grilled him about national security and other concerns about the app used by 150 million Americans. "Here's a CEO that can't tell you that China's not spying on the data," McCarthy said. There are growing calls to ban TikTok or to pass bipartisan legislation to give the Biden administration legal authority to seek a ban. Former U.S. President Donald Trump lost a series of court rulings in 2020 when he sought to ban TikTok and another Chinese-owned app, WeChat, a unit of Tencent (0700.HK). McCarthy appeared to be referring to an exchange during the hearing that TikTok later argued was mischaracterized. At Thursday's House hearing, Representative Neal Dunn asked Chew if ByteDance has spied on Americans at Beijing's request. Chew answered, "No." Republican Dunn then referenced the company's disclosure in December that some China-based employees at ByteDance improperly accessed TikTok user data of two journalists and were no longer employed by the company and repeated his question about whether ByteDance was spying. "I don't think that spying is the right way to describe it," Chew said. He went on to describe the reports as involving an "internal investigation," but was cut off by Dunn, who called TikTok's widespread use "a cancer." Many Democrats also have raised concerns but are not yet backing a U.S. ban.

Biden warns Iran after U.S. forces clash with proxy groups in Syria - A burst of deadly violence between U.S. forces and suspected Iranian proxies in Syria has reignited long-smoldering tensions between Washington and Tehran, as President Biden warned Iran on Friday that violent attacks on American troops would be met with retribution. “The United States does not — emphasize does not — seek conflict with Iran,” said Biden, speaking in Ottawa alongside Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, after U.S. warplanes carried out retaliatory airstrikes for the death of an American contractor. “But be prepared for us to act forcefully to protect our people. That’s exactly what happened last night.”Defense Department spokesman Brig. Gen. Patrick Ryder told reporters at the Pentagon that the operation, conducted overnight at Biden’s direction, was intended “to send a very clear message that we will take the protection of our personnel seriously, and that we will respond quickly and decisively if they are threatened.”The violence that erupted in Syria in recent days highlights the risk for escalation at a moment when Washington and Tehran remain sharply at odds over issues including Iran’s nuclear program, the country’s support for militants across the Middle East and, since last year, its provision of military technology to Russia for its war in Ukraine.The president’s remarks underscored his attempt to avoid further violence while also containing attacks by proxy forces that have long posed a threat to Americans in Iraq, Lebanon and beyond.The bloodshed began Thursday when a self-detonating drone struck a U.S. facility in northeast Syria, where hundreds of American troops remain stationed in a counterterrorism mission begun years ago to dismantle the Islamic State. Beyond the contractor’s death, five U.S. troops and a second contractor were wounded in the attack, which Biden administration officials promptly linked to militias trained and armed by Tehran.American F-15 fighter jets carried out two airstrikes in response, Ryder said. The jets targeted facilities associated with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, an elite Iranian force that, via its network of proxies, has targeted U.S. troops in Syria on and off.Hours later, Ryder said, 10 rockets were launched at Green Village, a U.S. military position about 100 miles south of Thursday’s assault. The Pentagon also linked those attacks to militias backed by Iran but said there were no injuries to U.S. or coalition personnel nor any damage to U.S. equipment.The incidents occur as Saudi Arabia, a central American partner in the Middle East, begins what could mark a dramatic rapprochement with Iran. The tentative agreement to resume diplomatic relations after years of antagonism, under a deal brokered this month by China, underscores Beijing’s expanding clout across the Middle East as America focuses on what officials view as larger threats from Russia and China.

John Bolton’s Prominence In The Media Proves Our Entire Society Is Diseased – Caitlin Johnstone -- In order to narrative-manage the public conversation about the Iraq War on the 20th anniversary of the invasion, those who helped unleash that horror upon our world have briefly paused their relentless torrent of “Ukraine proves the hawks were always right” takes to churn out a deluge of “Actually the Iraq War wasn’t based on lies and turned out pretty great after all” takes.Council on Foreign Relations chief Richard Haas — who worked in the US State Department under Colin Powell when Bush launched his criminal invasion — got a piece published in Project Syndicate falsely claiming that the US government and his former boss did not lie about weapons of mass destruction, and that “governments can and do get things wrong without lying.”Former Bush speechwriter David “Axis of Evil” Frum cooked up a lie-filled spin piece with The Atlantic claiming that “What the U.S. did in Iraq was not an act of unprovoked aggression” and suggesting that perhaps Iraqis are better off as a result of the invasion, or at least no worse off than they would otherwise have been.Neoconservative war propagandist Eli Lake, who has been described by journalist Ken Silverstein as “an open and ardent promoter of the Iraq War and the various myths trotted out to justify it,” has an essay published in Commentary with the extraordinary claim that the war “wasn’t the disaster everyone now says it was” and that “Iraq is better off today than it was 20 years ago.”But by far the most appalling piece of revisionist war crime apologia that’s come out during the 20th anniversary of the invasion has been an article published in National Review by the genocide walrus himself, John Bolton.Bolton sets himself apart from his fellow Iraq war architects by arguing that the actual invasion and overthrow of Saddam Hussein “was close to flawless,” and that the only thing the US did wrong was fail to kill more people and topple the government of Iran.Bolton criticizes “the Bush administration’s failure to take advantage of its substantial presence in Iraq and Afghanistan to seek regime change in between, in Iran,” writing that “we had a clear opportunity to empower Iran’s opposition to depose the ayatollahs.”“Unfortunately, however, as was the case after expelling Saddam from Kuwait in 1991, the United States stopped too soon,” Bolton writes.Bolton claims that the notoriously cruel sanctions that were inflicted upon Iraq between 1991 and 2003 were too lenient, saying there should have been “crushing sanctions” that were “enforced cold-bloodedly”.

US, Canada end loophole that let asylum-seekers cross border (AP) — The immigration deal announced Friday by U.S. President Joe Biden and Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau aims to shut down a process that has enabled tens of thousands of immigrants from across the world to move between the two countries along a back road between New York state and Quebec. Since early 2017, so many migrants entered Canada via Roxham Road outside Champlain, New York that the Royal Canadian Mounted Police staffed a reception center to process them, less than five miles (8 kilometers) from the official border crossing where they’d be returned to the United States. Mounties warned they’d be arrested, but once on Canadian soil, they were allowed to stay and pursue asylum cases that can take years to resolve. The new policy says that any asylum seekers who lack U.S. or Canadian citizenship and are caught within 14 days of crossing will be sent back across the border. It was set to take effect a minute after midnight Saturday, a quick implementation aimed at avoiding a surge of refugee claimants trying to cross, according to Canadian officials who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss the deal in advance. “We are expanding the Safe Third Country Agreement to apply not only at designated ports of entry, but across the entire land border, including internal waterways, ensuring fairness and more orderly migration between our two countries,” Canada’s announcement said. Canada also agreed to allow 15,000 migrants to apply “on a humanitarian basis from the Western Hemisphere over the course of the year, with a path to economic opportunities to address forced displacement, as an alternative to irregular migration.” Some of the last migrants to make it through were about eight people in two families — one from Haiti, the other from Afghanistan — who arrived at the U.S. end of Roxham Road just after dawn on Friday. Both said they took circuitous routes to get there. Gerson Solay, 28, carried his daughter Bianca up to the border. He said he didn’t have the proper documents to remain in the United States. “That is why Canada is my last destination,” he said before he was taken into custody for processing.

AFRICOM Says African Coup Leaders Share ‘Core Values’ With US Military --Gen. Michael Langley, the head of US Africa Command (AFRICOM), was grilled by Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-FL) on Thursday about African soldiers who received US military training and went on to carry out coups.Langley insisted only a “very small number” of Africans who receive US training later go on to be involved in coups against civilian governments and said the programs focus on “core values.”When asked by Gaetz if the US shares “core values” with Guinea coup leader Col. Mamady Doumbouy, Langley replied, “Absolutely … In our curriculum, we do.” Doumboy and his forces carried out a coup in 2021 while US Green Berets were in the country training them, and he still leads Guinea to this day.Gaetz also referenced a January 2022 coup in Burkina Faso, which was led by Lt. Col. Paul-Henri Sandaogo Damib, who had a long history of participating in US training exercises. Later that year, in September 2022, Damib was ousted in another coup led by Capt. Ibrahim Traore. When asked by journalist Nick Turse if Traore also received US training, the Pentagon said it didn’t know.Writing for Responsible Statecraft, Turse said since 2008, US-trained soldiers in Africa have “attempted at least nine coups (and succeeded in at least eight) across five West African countries, including Burkina Faso (three times), Guinea, Mali (three times), Mauritania, and the Gambia.”Langley insisted that the “core values” AFRICOM’s training focuses on include “respect for civilian governance” and said the command will “continue with our persistence in assuring that they harbor democratic norms, democratic values, apolitical.” Gaetz said those values aren’t sticking.“Just a moment ago, you said we shared core values with Colonel Doumbouya. You said that just moments ago in response to my question, and his core value seems to be leading a coup. So I don’t think it has stuck. I think we should at least know how many countries we train the coup plotters,” he said.

The U.S. connection to Uganda’s ‘kill the gays’ anti-LGBTQ bill - The global backlash to Uganda’s new anti-LGBT law, approved by the East African nation’s parliament Tuesday, has been scathing. Widely seen as one of the most extreme forms of anti-homosexuality legislation in the world, a draft version of the bill expands existing restrictions and punishments for same-sex activity, criminalizes doing business with LGBT rights groups and calls for the application of the death penalty in certain cases for gay sex carried out by “serial offenders.” The law is awaiting the assent of the country’s long-ruling President Yoweri Museveni, who only last week described homosexual people as “deviations from normal.”Officials elsewhere are calling on Museveni to reconsider. “The passing of this discriminatory bill — probably among the worst of its kind in the world — is a deeply troubling development,” Volker Turk, the U.N. high commissioner for human rights, said in a statement. He added: “If the bill is signed into law, it will render lesbian, gay and bisexual people in Uganda criminals simply for existing, for being who they are. It could provide carte blanche for the systematic violation of nearly all of their human rights and serve to incite people against each other.”The U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, Linda Thomas-Greenfield, has spoken this week to Museveni, expressing her “deep concern” about the legislation, CNN reported. Secretary of State Antony Blinken warnedthat the bill “undermine fundamental human rights of all Ugandans and could reverse gains in the fight against HIV/AIDS.” At the White House, National Security Council spokesman John Kirby said if the law was enacted, it would “have to take a look” at imposing economic sanctions on Uganda, adding that would be “really unfortunate” since the bulk of U.S. aid to the country of nearly 50 million people comes in the form of health assistance.The irony, though, is that the United States has also played another role in the situation. While right-wing Republican lawmakers in various U.S. states are currently engineering a new wave of anti-LGBTQ legislation, a slate of proselytizing, activist U.S. religious groups have for years campaigned in parts of Africa, especially in countries like Uganda, and sown the seeds for even more hard-line measures there.Uganda is one of at least 67 countries that criminalizes same-sex relations. Like other former British colonies in East Africa, it draws on colonial-era statutes that maintain that homosexuality is an offense “against the order of nature” and punishable by life imprisonment.

Biden Kills Bill To Reverse ESG Investing Rule --The woke industrial complex scored a win on Monday after President Biden issued his first veto since taking office, rejecting a bill that would have reversed a Labor Department rule permitting fiduciaries to consider environmental, social and governance (ESG) factors when making investment decisions for retirement portfolios. "I just vetoed my first bill," Biden tweeted. "This bill would risk your retirement savings by making it illegal to consider risk factors MAGA House Republicans don’t like. Your plan manager should be able to protect your hard-earned savings — whether Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene likes it or not," he added. The veto came as no surprise, and comes on the heels of a previous rule issued by the Biden administration that allowed ESG factors when making investment decisions on behalf of clients - replacing a Trump-era rule that discouraged ESG factors "even in cases where it is in the financial interest of plans to take such considerations into account." Both the GOP-controlled House and the Democrat-controlled Senate voted last Wednesday to send the bill to Biden's desk - with Democrat Sens. Joe Manchin and Jon Tester joining Republicans in opposing the Biden administration's policy. The White House had previously promised that Biden would veto it if passed."The President vetoed the bill because it jeopardizes the hard-earned life savings of cops, firefighters, teachers, and other workers – all in service of an extreme, MAGA Republican ideology," White House spokesperson Robyn Patterson said in a statement, The Hill reports, adding that Congress is unlikely to be able to override the veto, which would require the support of two-thirds of both chambers.According to Will Hild, executive director of ESG opponent Consumers' Research, "This veto by President Biden goes directly against the interests of the American people and once again creates an illegitimate loophole for companies like BlackRock, State Street and Vanguard to exploit to put politics over profits with American pension dollars.""It is disappointing to see this administration use hardworking Americans’ retirements to further progressive politics rather than ensure Americans are financially secure."

Editorial: Don’t let politics distort pension investments - nola.com In politics, a slogan can trump — literally in today’s case of a Donald Trump policy — realities of the business world. And that’s why President Joe Biden’s first veto in office should be upheld. Republicans and a handful of conservative Democrats passed a bill to renew Trump’s ban on government considering environmental impacts or potential lawsuits when overseeing investment decisions in pension plans. The slogans driving the bill were social-media shorthand about allowing leftist social policy to distort investment decisions, endangering retirement funds’ solvency. In fact, there is a good basis for arguing that the government’s decisions did not cause the havoc alleged. And there is also a good reason to recognize that some environmental impact is going to have an effect on long-term investments. For example (and close to home), Louisiana is an oil and gas producer and its economy is very closely bound to the health of those markets. As much as we support the industry, we don't think it makes sense to say that the government’s general rules on investment decisions should exclude, rigorously, a money manager’s decisions on investments that are tied to the erratic boom-and-bust financial circumstances of energy. Climate change is a reality that the world must deal with, no place more so than in Louisiana, a coastal state where rising sea levels are a threat. That has an economic impact — in fact, a considerable one. We believe that the long-term health of the economy requires investments in energy. That means a judicious assessment of the decades-ahead prospects for differing components of an incredibly fast-changing industry.

House fails to override Biden’s first veto -The Republican-led House on Thursday failed to override President Biden’s first veto, falling short of the two-thirds majority needed to revive the resolution targeting an administration rule related to ESG investing, which takes environmental and social factors into account. The chamber voted 219-200, with Rep. Jared Golden (D-Maine) voting with every Republican in favor of overriding the veto. Both the House and the Senate approved a resolution that would undo the administration’s rule, sending it to Biden’s desk and forcing the first veto of his presidency. The votes in both chambers were bipartisan. The effort to overturn the veto was not expected to be successful — only one House Democrat supported the initial resolution — but it put most of the Democratic caucus on record as supporting this type of investing for the second time. Two Senate Democrats voted for the disapproval resolution in the upper chamber. Veto overrides are very rare for Congress. During the Trump administration just one veto was overridden — the president’s rejection of a mammoth defense bill. Former President Obama’s eight years in office only saw one veto override, and former President George W. Bush had four of his vetoes overridden. The Biden administration rule targeted by Republicans clarifies that money managers can weigh climate change and other ESG — which stands for environmental, social and governance — factors when they make investment decisions related to retirement accounts. It replaces a previous Trump administration rule that said money managers could only make investments based on financial considerations. Critics of the Trump rule have called it confusing, and the Biden administration has said that it discouraged consideration of ESG factors “even in cases where it is in the financial interest of plans to take such considerations into account.” The pushback against the Biden administration rule is part of a larger Republican effort opposed to ESG investing, which some legislators have decried as “woke.” Republicans argue that considering these types of factors can come at the expense of profits, and they warn that it could harm the fossil fuel industry. “Ultimately, President Biden had a choice to make: do you support blue collar workers who deserve the best benefits in their retirement, or billionaire elites who want to direct your funds into places that get a lower yield?” House Majority Leader Steve Scalise (R-La.) said. “And I think it’s important to keep trying and, you know, keep fighting for those workers who, when they retire, they want the highest rate of return.” “And that’s what the bill’s all about,” he continued. “It’s disappointing that Joe Biden sold them out to go help his billionaire friends that want to inject their personal ideology at the expense of lower returns for people when they retire.”

Republicans plot path on energy, permitting package - — As they put the finishing touches on their massive energy package, House Republicans plan to pressure Democrats on a core kitchen table issue: energy costs. In wrapping up a three-day retreat here, Republicans seemed to be chomping at the bit to harangue Democrats on Capitol Hill next week over prices at the pump and the supermarket. Their package, H.R. 1, the “Lower Energy Costs Act,” is a “first start in the energy push for this Congress to try to lower prices and make energy and electricity affordable, reliable and secure for this nation,” declared Rep. Jeff Duncan (R-S.C.), chair of the House Energy and Commerce Subcommittee on Energy, Climate and Grid Security. “I look forward to the debate and moving this over to the Senate to put some pressure on them,” he said. Republicans say the proposal, which will be debated and voted on next week, would allow the United States to produce more oil, gas, solar and wind in a manner that is more environmentally sound than anywhere else on the planet. The bill, the work of three committees, would require the federal government to hold quarterly oil lease sales in Western states. It would speed up environmental permitting that GOP lawmakers complain drags on years longer than it should. The package would also allow for more hardrock mining in mineral-rich states like Minnesota and Idaho. “This is something that really is transformative,” said Rep. Garret Graves (R-La.), who wrote a significant portion of the final package. “It addresses so many of the things that are problems right now. It creates new revenues for the United States Treasury. It helps to reduce energy costs.” And, he said, it “helps to promote cleaner energy sources.”

Amendments could scramble House GOP energy bill - House Republicans were hoping to iron out last-minute wrinkles in their massive energy package during their Florida retreat this week, but demands for amendments are complicating leadership’s plans. Republicans are framing their sweeping bill — H.R. 1, the “Lower Energy Costs Act” — as key to driving down prices and unleashing U.S. energy. It’s supposed to be on the floor next week. And although party leaders have been projecting unity around what stands to be a top 2024 campaign issue, Republican lawmakers and policy staffers have been scrambling to finalize the package behind closed doors. “I do think there are a few cats and dogs that are going to need to be resolved,” Rep. Garret Graves (R-La.), who wrote the energy permitting section of the bill, said Wednesday. Graves and other lawmakers who helped shape the bill largely declined to get into specific “sensitivities.” Instead, they spoke in broad strokes about outstanding concerns, including offshore oil and wind in the Gulf of Mexico, fracking in the Delaware River Basin and approval of the high-profile Mountain Valley pipeline. The House Rules Committee, which sets the parameters for floor debate, is scheduled to meet Monday afternoon to choose which amendments will be considered. The energy bill is expected to be offered as a “structured rule,” where not all amendments are made in order, rather than a free-for-all “open rule,” where anyone can force a vote on any germane issue related to the underlying legislation. “Everything that has come across the floor has had a lot of amendments,” House Rules Committee Chair Tom Cole (R-Okla.) told reporters of the bills House Republicans have considered so far this year. “There’s certainly a lot of people who want to legislate … so I would expect quite a few.”

Biden looks to undo Reagan policy on mass transit funds - The Biden administration has signaled to Congress that it wants to change a long-standing policy that has prohibited large transit agencies from spending federal dollars on operating expenses such as staff wages and fuel costs. The proposal was included as part of President Joe Biden’s 2024 budget plan for the Transportation Department, and it comes as transit agencies nationwide have struggled to rebound financially from the Covid-19 pandemic. The policy shift outlined by the Biden administration would give local authorities the freedom to divert billions of dollars from various transportation grant programs in order to cover “operating shortfalls.” If approved by Congress, the proposal would let regional transit systems in cities such as Chicago and Washington, D.C., pay their largest expense category with federal money. This change would give them more leeway to address a “very serious fiscal cliff,” said Jarrett Walker, a public transit planning and policy consultant. The ability to tap federal funds for operating expenses would help regional transportation agencies avoid a “transit death spiral,” Walker said. That’s when a lack of money forces transit agencies to cut services, which can lead to further declines in ridership. Large regional transit agencies have been prohibited from using federal dollars for expenses such as fuel or wages since former President Ronald Reagan convinced Congress to put that policy in place during his second term. At the time, Reagan was pushing for a broad reduction in federal spending.

Biden will release Covid-19 origin intelligence - President Joe Biden signed into law Monday a bill to declassify intelligence on the origins of Covid-19, offering the public a chance to review information that government agencies say is inconclusive. The legislation, called the Covid-19 Origin Act of 2023, which passed the Senate and House with unanimous support earlier this month, orders the Director of National Intelligence to declassify within 90 days of enactment all information relating to potential links between China’s Wuhan Institute of Virology and Covid-19. The director is then to submit the information in a report to Congress. Sen. Josh Hawley (R-Mo.) sponsored the bill. In a statement, Biden said he shared “Congress’s goal of releasing as much information as possible about the origin” and that he planned now to “declassify and share as much of that information as possible, consistent with my constitutional authority to protect against the disclosure of information that would harm national security.” Why it matters: Biden’s signature is a step further in providing transparency about what the U.S. knows about how the pandemic started. Some scientists and government agencies have theorized that researchers at the Wuhan Institute of Virology inadvertently spread Covid-19 to people in the city where the virus first emerged, while others have insisted that an animal more likely transmitted it to people. The U.S. intelligence community is split about the origin of the pandemic. The Department of Energy and the FBI have recently said they lean toward the lab leak hypothesis. DOE said it had low confidence in its assessment, while the FBI said its confidence level was moderate. Other agencies support the natural origin theory. The Wall Street Journal has reported that U.S. intelligence agencies believe three workers at the Wuhan lab were hospitalized in the month before the virus emerged. A determination that the virus leaked from the Chinese lab would further strain the U.S.-China relationship, and also erode trust in leading scientists who argued for the natural origin hypothesis.

Court blocks COVID-19 vaccine mandate for US gov't workers (AP) — President Joe Biden’s order that federal employees get vaccinated against COVID-19 has been blocked by a federal appeals court. The 5th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals in New Orleans, in a decision Thursday, rejected arguments that Biden, as the nation’s chief executive, has the same authority as the CEO of a private corporation to require that employees be vaccinated. The ruling from the full appeals court, 16 full-time judges at the time the case was argued, reversed an earlier ruling by a three-judge 5th Circuit panel that had upheld the vaccination requirement. Judge Andrew Oldham, nominated to the court by then-President Donald Trump, wrote the opinion for a 10-member majority. The ruling maintains the status quo for federal employee vaccines. It upholds a preliminary injunction blocking the mandate issued by a federal judge in January 2022. At that point, the administration said nearly 98% of covered employees had been vaccinated. And, Oldham noted, with the preliminary injunction arguments done, the case will return to that court for further arguments, when “both sides will have to grapple with the White House’s announcement that the COVID emergency will finally end on May 11, 2023.” The White House defended the order, citing the high compliance rate among the federal workforce and saying in a statement Friday that “vaccination remains one of the most important tools to protect people from serious illness and hospitalizations” against COVID. Opponents of the policy said it was an encroachment on federal workers’ lives that neither the Constitution nor federal statutes authorize.

Bipartisan lawmakers introduce bill to ban members from owning, trading stocks -A bipartisan group of lawmakers introduced a bill on Tuesday that seeks to ban members of Congress from owning and trading stocks, the latest piece of legislation put forward in the effort to enact a stock trading ban for Congress.A number of lawmakers from both parties and chambers introduced legislation in the last Congress to ban members from trading stocks while in office, but none of the proposed measures passed. The effort gained steam after news surfaced that several lawmakers had violated existing laws meant to prevent conflicts of interest when it comes to investing.The House came close to holding a vote on legislation barring lawmakers from trading stocks in September 2022, but Democratic leadership ultimately scrapped those plans, saying there was not enough time to study the proposal.The decision angered some lawmakers who had hoped to vote on the legislation — which is popular among voters — ahead of the midterm elections.The newest measure — introduced by Reps. Pramila Jayapal (D-Wash.), Matt Rosendale (R-Mont.) and Ken Buck (R-Colo.) — would prohibit lawmakers and their spouses from owning or trading individual stocks, commodities, futures and other securities, including interests in hedge funds, derivatives, options or another “complex investment vehicle.” The ban would not, however, extend to “common, widely held funds, such as mutual funds and ETFs, as long as those funds do not present a conflict of interest and are diversified,” according to the lawmakers.

Senate absences multiply headaches for both parties -The last time all 100 senators were on the floor voting together was more than seven months ago. And it’s starting to take a toll on both parties. This Congress features one of history’s oldest Senates, a fact that’s fueled ongoing debate about gerontocracy in government. Yet it’s not just age keeping one member — and sometimes six or more — from the floor: Blame a confluence of illnesses, family matters and impending retirements dating well into last year. Just last week, five senators missed every vote, with several out for extended absences. And it doesn’t look like all 100 senators will be back this week. It’s not an idle matter, either: Both parties’ attendance issues are affecting Senate business, from crucial floor votes to the mundane business of committee hearings. The Senate last had all 100 members in attendance on Aug. 7, when Democrats passed their party-line energy, health care and tax bill. Just last week, five senators missed every vote, with several out for extended absences. ash “There’s all kinds of occupations in this country where people have to be absent because of health,” Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa) said. “A senator’s no different from a John Deere worker or a professor at a university. If you’re sick, you’re sick.” Grassley, who prides himself on his attendance record, is recovering from hip surgery but has not missed any votes since he had coronavirus in late 2020. Over the past two months, he’s progressed from a wheelchair to a cane as he returns from the procedure. Asked how he’s feeling, he replied: “Let me answer your question this way.” Then he carefully demonstrated that he doesn’t actually need the cane to walk. It’s still not clear when senators can expect the return of either 81-year-old Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, who is recovering from a concussion, or the 53-year-old Sen. John Fetterman (D-Pa.), who is receiving treatment for depression. And 89-year-old Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D-Calif.), who is battling shingles, probably won’t be back this week, according to a person familiar with her plans.

House Republicans pass Parents Bill of Rights - House Republicans passed an education bill on Friday that emphasizes parental rights in the classroom, leaning into a hot-button, culture war issue that has gained popularity in GOP politics across the country. The legislation, titled the Parents Bill of Rights, passed in a 213-208 vote, and it now heads to the Senate for consideration. It is highly unlikely, however, that the Democratic-controlled chamber will take up the measure, with House Democrats dubbing the bill the “Politics over Parents Act.” Republican Reps. Andy Biggs (Ariz.), Ken Buck (Colo.), Matt Gaetz (Fla.), Mike Lawler (N.Y.) and Matt Rosendale (Mont.) sided with all voting Democrats in opposing the measure. The measure would require schools to publish their curricula publicly, mandate that parents be allowed to meet with their children’s teachers and make schools give information to parents when violence occurs on school grounds. It would also demand that parents receive a list of books and reading materials accessible at the school library and give parents a say when schools are crafting or updating their policies and procedures for student privacy, among other tenets. At a time when Republicans have accused Democrats of painting parents as a threat and in the wake of contentious school board meetings around the country, the legislation also says school and government officials “should never seek to use law enforcement to criminalize the lawfully expressed concerns of parents about their children’s education,” and that the “First Amendment guarantees parents and other stakeholders the right to assemble and express their opinions on decisions affecting their children and communities.” “This bill is not complex or complicated,” the bill’s sponsor Rep. Julia Letlow (R-La.) said during debate on the House floor Thursday. “Nor should it be partisan or polarizing, and contrary to what you may hear from my colleagues on the other side of the aisle, it is not an attack on our hard-working teachers, who will always be the heroes in my eyes.” “It is not an attempt to have Congress dictate their curriculum or determine the books in the library,” she continued. “Instead, this bill aims to bring more transparency and accountability to education, allowing parents to be informed and when they have questions and concerns to lawfully bring them to their local school boards.”

Biden DOJ Asks Supreme Court To Fast-Track Case That Could Reinstate Federal Gun Ban - The U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ) is asking the Supreme Court to overturn an appeals court ruling that struck down a federal law preventing people under domestic violence-related restraining orders from having guns. The Biden administration asked in its new petition (pdf) for the high court to hear the case on a “highly expedited schedule” because of the “significant disruptive consequences” of the lower court’s ruling. The petition was reportedly filed with the court on March 17 but had not been docketed as of press time. The case comes as courts nationwide are playing catchup regarding the Supreme Court’s landmark June 2022 ruling in New York State Rifle and Pistol Association v. Bruen that held firearms restrictions must be deeply rooted in American history if they are to survive constitutional scrutiny. Senate Judiciary Committee chairman Dick Durbin (D-Ill.) said on March 15 that the Bruen ruling offers little guidance to lower courts on interpreting the decision, as Courthouse News Service reported. “The gun lobby saw Bruen as a landmark win, but it is a significant challenge for police, law enforcement, and the population of America when it comes to public safety,” Durbin said. The case involves Zackey Rahimi of Texas, who pled guilty to violating a 1994 federal law –Section 922(g)(8) of Title 18 of the U.S. Code— that prohibits a person who is subject to a domestic-violence restraining order from possessing a firearm. Rahimi was involved in five shooting incidents after the restraining order was entered against him in February 2020. But when the U.S. Court of Appeals for the 5th Circuit took up Rahimi’s case earlier this year, it overturned the law, finding it was no longer constitutional according to the principles laid down in Bruen.

Sinema Trashes Dems: ‘Old Dudes Eating Jell-O’ - Ever since Sen. Kyrsten Sinema became an independent in December, her Democratic colleagues have been restrained about the shift, careful not to alienate the Arizona lawmaker when they only have a single-seat majority and need her support on legislation and nominees.Hoping to get through this year, and then gain clarity about whether Sinema will even seek reelection in 2024 let alone continue to caucus with her old party, Senate Democrats have dodged questions about the mercurialmarathoner who’s still barely in their ranks.“It’s really early,” Sen. Gary Peters (D-Mich.), who chairs the Senate Democratic campaign arm, told me. “I don’t know what she’s planning on doing.”But Sinema may be making the Democrats’ deliberations easier.As she races to stockpile campaign money and post an impressive, statement-making first-quarter fundraising number, Sinema has used a series of Republican-dominated receptions and retreats this year to belittle her Democratic colleagues, shower her GOP allies with praise and, in one case, quite literally give the middle finger to President Joe Biden’s White House.And that’s before an audience.Speaking in private, whether one-on-one or with small groups of Republican senators, she’s even more cutting, particularly about Senate Majority LeaderChuck Schumer, whom she derides in harshly critical terms, according to senior Republican officials directly familiar with her comments.Sinema’s sniping spree has delighted the Republican lawmakers, lobbyists and donors who’ve taken in the show, giving some of them hope that she can be convinced to caucus with the GOP, either in this Congress or in the case she’s reelected as an independent.Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, who Sinema has assiduously courted, remains skeptical, however. Believing she remains a Democrat at heart, McConnell has focused on trying to recruit a non-controversial Arizona Republican into the race, somebody who could attract the moderate GOP voters and independents Sinema would need to win the purple state as an independent.

Four more Oath Keepers convicted of Jan. 6 felonies - Four more members of the Oath Keepers were convicted Monday of conspiracy to obstruct Congress’ Jan. 6 proceedings, bringing the number of members of the group found guilty by juries of felonies related to the Capitol attack to more than a dozen.Jurors found Sandra Parker, Laura Steele, Connie Meggs and William Isaacs each guilty of the most significant charges they faced: conspiracy to obstruct Congress’ proceedings, obstruction of an official proceeding, and conspiracy to prevent a federal officer from discharging duties.The four were also found guilty of several other charges they faced, including destruction of government property.The convictions add to a growing roster of Oath Keepers who are facing lengthy prison terms for their role in the events on Jan. 6. Stewart Rhodes, the group’s national leader was convicted in November of seditious conspiracy, along with Kelly Meggs — husband of Connie Meggs. In a second trial, four other Oath Keepers were convicted of seditious conspiracy: Roberto Minuta, David Moerschel, Joseph Hackett and Ed Vallejo.Across the three multi-defendant trials, prosecutors have portrayed the group as a key driver of events on Jan. 6, conspiring to prevent the peaceful transfer of power from Donald Trump to Joe Biden, with some of them prepared to turn violent to achieve that end. Prosecutors noted that they had amassed a stockpile of weapons that they stashed at a hotel in Arlington, Va. that they discussed ferrying into Washington if the events had turned even more violent than they did.Oath Keeper defendants argued that they were simply in Washington to perform security details for VIPs at Trump’s rally, which preceded the violent riot at the Capitol.Monday’s verdict was less clear for two other defendants in the third Oath Keepers trial: Bennie Parker and Michael Greene.Parker, who didn’t go into the Capitol, was acquitted of obstruction and conspiracy to prevent an officer from discharging duties, but the jury was deadlocked on whether he conspired with other Oath Keepers to obstruct Congress’ proceedings.

Judge sentences Jan. 6 defendant who breached Pelosi’s office to 36 months in prison - A Jan. 6 defendant who surged with the mob into Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s office and helped strategize ways for the mob to overcome police resistance was sentenced Thursday to 36 months in prison, ending one of the earliest and most unusual sagas to stem from the Capitol attack. Attorneys for Riley Williams — a devotee of white nationalist Nick Fuentes who is 5 feet, 4 inches tall and was 22 at the time of the attack — repeatedly urged U.S. District Judge Amy Berman Jackson to treat her like an immature child who couldn’t be responsible for her actions. But Jackson sharply rejected that effort, noting that Williams repeatedly and intentionally took steps to breach police lines and marshaled the mob to resist even further. “She was not just a little waif blowing in the wind,” Jackson said, comparing Williams’ role in the mob to a “coxswain on a crew team.” Jackson’s sentence was the close of one of the earliest sagas to emerge after the Jan. 6 attack. Williams was one of the first felony defendants charged, and she was suspected at the time of stealing Nancy Pelosi’s laptop, in part because she told friends that she did. A jury convicted Williams in December of civil disorder and resisting police but deadlocked on a charge that Williams obstructed Congress and abetted the theft of Pelosi’s laptop. Williams is on tape entering Pelosi’s conference room while other rioters took the laptop, and she encouraged them to steal it, but Williams’ lawyers contended that it was unclear if the other rioters heard her comment. Jackson spent much of her sentencing colloquy dismantling the defense’s claim that Williams was too young or too small to be responsible for the grave offenses the government charged. The defense team leaned on Williams’ youthful demeanor and the fact that she seemed briefly confused about which building was being stormed — calling it the White House as she approached. But Jackson said any momentary confusion Williams expressed was clarified by her repeated acknowledgment of why she was there. It was not, Jackson emphasized, “because her dizzy little head was confused about which building in Washington was which.” Fuentes, she noted, was born the same year as Williams. People can sign up for the military at 18, she added, noting that Williams was old enough on Jan. 6 to have completed a tour of duty. John Lewis was 21 when he became a freedom fighter, Jackson added. “She was old enough to be one of the police officers she resisted,” Jackson said. Jackson also took on the defense’s repeated assertions about Williams’ diminutive stature, noting that figures like Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, Liz Cheney and Supreme Court Justice Ketanji Brown Jackson had all achieved prominence despite their size. “Riley June Williams was old enough and tall enough to be held accountable for her actions,” Jackson said.

Meadows, numerous Trump aides, ordered to testify in Jan. 6 probe | The - Former White House chief of staff Mark Meadows and a suite of other aides are being forced to testify before a grand jury hearing evidence in the Department of Justice (DOJ) investigation into Jan. 6, 2021, rejecting former President Trump’s claims of executive privilege. The decision,first reported by ABC News, came in a sealed ruling last week from D.C. District Court Judge Beryl Howell — one of her last decisions before stepping down as chief judge. The order requires testimony from a number of Trump aides, including some that have already appeared before the grand jury but declined to answer questions about their conversations with the former president. The decision is a turning point for Meadows, who dodged a subpoena from the House select committee investigating Jan. 6 after the panel’s work identified him as a key player in a suite of different efforts to keep Trump in office after losing the 2020 election. The DOJ declined to prosecute Meadows for contempt of Congress, but special counsel Jack Smith — appointed by the department to oversee the investigation — subpoenaed him in February in connection with his criminal probe. Trump communications guru Dan Scavino, who the DOJ likewise declined to prosecute after he bucked a committee subpoena, was also included in Howell’s order and must testify in the criminal probe. Aide Stephen Miller, former Department of Homeland Security official Ken Cuccinelli, former Director of National Intelligence John Ratcliffe and former national security adviser Robert O’Brien were also all directed to testify, as were John McEntee, then director of the Presidential Personnel Office, and Nick Luna, an assistant to Trump. Trump’s team can appeal the decision, though a three-judge panel at the D.C. Circuit Court of Appeals recently upheld another Howell order, one that directed Trump’s attorney in the probe into documents held at his Mar-a-Lago property to answer questions about his conversations with the former president. “The DOJ is continuously stepping far outside the standard norms in attempting to destroy the long accepted, long held, Constitutionally based standards of attorney-client privilege and executive privilege,” a Trump spokesman said in a statement.

Is Sean Hannity a journalist? Fox News hosts' role key in Dominion lawsuit - Sean Hannity does not consider himself a journalist. “I’m a member of the press,” he said on his Fox News show last year, “but I don’t claim to be a journalist.” His boss, however, feels differently. “Ultimately, they’re journalists,” Fox Corp chief executive Lachlan Murdoch said of Hannity and his fellow prime-time opinion hosts in a deposition in December. “They report a strong opinion.”Murdoch’s comments, taken together with the sworn testimony of key Fox News lieutenants and hosts recently made public, paint a muddled picture of what exactly Fox’s most popular hosts do. Are they pure pundits or opinionated journalists? In other words, are viewers expected to believe them?That distinction could be a factor in Dominion Voting Systems’ $1.6 billion defamation lawsuit against Fox News, which is expected to go to trial in Delaware next month — and it’s an issue that could cut both ways for Fox.Fox argued in a recent filing that commentators who aired false claims that Dominion rigged voting machines to help Joe Biden were not acting irresponsibly because they were presenting their opinions on newsworthy allegations, as opposed to reporting on them. “To the extent Dominion suggests that a reasonable viewer would expect only sober factual reporting on all of Fox News’ shows simply because Fox News is a ‘news organizatio[n],’ that is wrong,” the network’s lawyers wrote. Some legal scholars think the network could prevail with a jury on this point. “Recklessness for a journalist might be a different standard than recklessness for a pundit,” said Jane Kirtley, a professor of media ethics and law at the University of Minnesota.Yet Fox lawyers have also described its opinion hosts in language that evokes terminology typically used to defend journalists, saying that they “covered the president’s allegations about Dominion because the president’s efforts to overturn the election results were newsworthy.” And they have claimed that the hosts are entitled to the same rights as journalists to protect their confidential sources — the reason that dozens of Dominion’s exhibits are currently peppered with redactions.

Trump indictment could land soon, sending law enforcement scrambling - Law enforcement officials met at NYPD headquarters in lower Manhattan on Monday afternoon to plan for a possible indictment of former President Donald Trump on charges stemming from payments to a porn star, a person involved in the planning told POLITICO.An indictment by a grand jury is expected soon, according to three people involved in the deliberations, though it did not appear to be happening Monday. The grand jury returns Wednesday.A court spokesperson said there’s nothing to report since no charges have been filed. Spokespeople for the Secret Service and District Attorney’s Office did not immediately respond to requests for comment. “The NYPD’s state of readiness remains a constant at all times, for all contingencies,” an NYPD spokesperson said. “Our communications and coordination with our partners in government and in law enforcement are fundamental tenets of our commitment to public safety.” Attorney Robert J. Costello, who once advised former Trump lawyer Michael D. Cohen, testified before the grand jury Monday afternoon. Once the sealed indictment is delivered to the judge, the DA’s office would discuss Trump’s surrender with his counsel, according to a court official who, like the others, was granted anonymity to discuss internal planning procedures. If Trump were to not surrender, a warrant would be issued for his arrest.

McCarthy calls for House investigations as Republicans slam potential Trump indictment - House Speaker Kevin McCarthy on Saturday said he would direct House committees to investigate the Manhattan district attorney’s potential prosecution of former President Donald Trump.Trump on Saturday predicted on Truth Social that he would be arrested next week in the probe over his handling of a hush-money payment during his 2016 presidential campaign, prompting a slew of Republican allies to express their outrage.McCarthy said the Manhattan DA’s move would be “an outrageous abuse of power by a radical DA who lets violent criminals walk as he pursues political vengeance against President Trump,” and said that he is “directing relevant committees to immediately investigate if federal funds are being used to subvert our democracy by interfering in elections with politically motivated prosecutions.”Rep. Chip Roy (R-Texas) said an indictment of the former president would be “politically-motivated” — a symptom of what Roy called a “politicized ‘justice’ system that will be (is being) weaponized against ALL Americans.”Sen. J.D. Vance (R-Ohio) tweeted “We simply don’t have a real country if justice depends on politics,” maintaining that a Trump indictment would not cause him to reconsider his endorsement of the former president in 2024. Former Vice President Mike Pence, who has publicly broken ties with Trump over the Jan. 6 riot at the Capitol, spoke out in support of his former boss.“This is what the Manhattan DA says is their top priority,” Pence told conservative media outlet Breitbart. “It reeks of the kind of political prosecution that that we endured back in the days of the Russia hoax and the whole impeachment over a phone call.”

House GOP targets Manhattan DA as possible Trump indictment looms — House Judiciary Chair Jim Jordan (R-Ohio) and senior GOP leaders are preparing to demand testimony from members of Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg’s Office amid reports of an imminent indictment of former President Donald Trump. Republicans are discussing firing off letters summoning employees of the Manhattan DA’s office for sworn testimony, according to a GOP official familiar with the plans. The potential request comes amid speculation about why the hush-money case was suddenly resurrected after being back-burnered by both state and federal prosecutors. The official, who spoke on condition of anonymity because the plans are not final, noted that Speaker Kevin McCarthy, a longtime Trump ally and close friend, is “fully supportive and pushing folks to be aggressive here.” Bragg himself is in the GOP’s crosshairs, though it’s not clear if he’ll be immediately summoned. “He should come testify before Congress,” Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) told us and other reporters, launching into a lengthy tirade about “fake charges” meant to be “used in Democrat ads” against Trump. Greene’s not alone: “This is a [George] Soros-backed, crazy, left-wing prosecutor … and he is doing this purely political sham,” Jordan told POLITICO. (Note that Bragg told his employees over the weekend that he would “not tolerate attempts to intimidate our office or threaten the rule of law in New York.”) Jordan didn’t answer questions about whether he’d subpoena Bragg. Even if he does, it’s almost impossible to imagine Bragg or his subordinates answering questions about an ongoing probe or prosecution. While Republicans could threaten to hold him in contempt of Congress, the Justice Department would be unlikely to press charges in a partisan dispute. Regardless, Trump’s future will continue to be a major discussion point as House Republicans huddle on the biggest policy issues facing the country. As GOP lawmakers prepped for sessions on border security, the ongoing banking scare, public safety and the looming debt ceiling deadline, Trump kept venting on Truth Social, calling on Bragg to “BE HELD ACCOUNTABLE FOR THE CRIME OF ‘INTERFERENCE IN A PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION.’”

Graham warns Trump arrest would ‘blow up our country’ - Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.), the ranking member on the Senate Judiciary Committee, is warning that Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg (D) arresting former President Trump would “blow up our country.” “It’s going to blow up our country, and this is a bunch of B.S.,” he said in a “Fox & Friends” interview. “You’ve had the prosecutor before Bragg, [Cyrus] Vance [Jr.], look at the case and pass on it. You had the U.S. attorney in New York say ‘I’m not going to do it federally,’” Graham said, describing the lack of interest among other prosecutors in charging Trump over a $130,000 payment his onetime fixer Michael Cohen made to adult film actress Stormy Daniels. Graham said Bragg is under political pressure to prosecute Trump over the allegation, which surfaced publicly in 2018, because his predecessor has come under criticism from former prosecutor Mark Pomerantz, who oversaw the district attorney office’s earlier investigation of Trump. “There was an intervening cause other than Trump running,” Graham said, explaining why he thinks Bragg is now poised to bring charges against Trump. “One of the guys in the DA’s office wrote a book very critical of Vance. ‘You should have prosecuted Trump, you let him off.’ And Bragg feels that pressure,” he said. Graham also slammed Bragg as a “George Soros-backed prosecutor.” Color of Change PAC, which received a large donation from Soros — a frequent GOP foil — backed the district attorney’s 2021 campaign.

Trump warns of 'death & destruction' if charged with a crime - (Reuters) - Former U.S. President Donald Trump warned of potential "death & destruction" if he faces criminal charges, hours after New York prosecutors probing his hush-money payment to porn star Stormy Daniels said they would not be intimidated. The early Friday post on Trump's Truth Social media site was the latest in a string of verbal attacks on Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg since last Saturday when Trump wrongly predicted he would be arrested three days later. Trump claims his defeat in 2020 was the result of fraud - a claim that inspired his followers to launch a deadly Jan. 6, 2021, assault on the U.S. Capitol in a failed bid to stop Congress from certifying the election of Democratic President Joe Biden, who bested the Republican Trump by more than 7 million votes. "What kind of person can charge another person, in this case a former President of the United States, who got more votes than any sitting President in history, and leading candidate (by far!) for the Republican Party nomination, with a Crime, when it is known by all that NO Crime has been committed, & also known that potential death & destruction in such a false charge could be catastrophic for our Country?" wrote Trump, who is seeking the 2024 Republican presidential nomination.

Suspicious powder sent to Manhattan office of DA probing Trump is 'nonhazardous' - — An envelope containing suspicious powder sent Friday to the office of the Manhattan district attorney investigating Donald Trump was a nonhazardous substance, law enforcement officials said. “The D.A. has informed the office that it was immediately contained and that the NYPD Emergency Service Unit and the NYC Department of Environmental Protection determined there was no dangerous substance,” a spokesperson for Manhattan DA Alvin Bragg said in a statement. NYPD officers responded around noon Friday to the lower Manhattan building that houses Bragg’s office after a 911 call, according to a police spokesperson. The white powder was in a USPS envelope. It was been transported to a city lab for further analysis, the NYPD spokesperson said. Neither the office nor the courthouse was evacuated, the spokesperson said. The scare comes after Trump took to Truth Social to predict “potential death & destruction” if a grand jury votes to indict the former president for his alleged role in a 2016 hush money payment to porn star Stormy Daniels.The grand jury was not sitting Friday since it typically only hears evidence on Mondays, Wednesdays and Thursdays. The panel took a two-day breakthis week after a flurry of witnesses, leading some to speculate the case was in trouble. But legal experts told POLITICO there were more likely routine reasons for the pause. Last week, Bragg told office employees in an email that “we do not tolerate attempts to intimidate our office or threaten the rule of law in New York.” “Our law enforcement partners will ensure that any specific or credible threats against the office will be fully investigated and that the proper safeguards are in place so all 1,600 of us have a secure work environment,” Bragg wrote. That message followed an earlier warning by Trump that his supporters should “Protest, take our nation back!” if he was arrested in connection with Bragg’s probe.

Jeffries: Trump's Truth Social posts could 'get someone killed' – POLITICO video

Comer agrees it could be politically unsustainable to investigate Kushner -Rep. James Comer (R-Ky.), chairman of the House Oversight and Accountability Committee, agreed that it could be politically unsustainable to investigate Jared Kushner — former President Trump’s son-in-law who served as a senior adviser in the White House — in a new profile by The New York Times.The Times, which interviewed Comer for six hours, said the Kentucky Republican did not rule out probing Kushner’s business dealings but agreed with a reporter who suggested it might be politically unsustainable for him to investigate Kushner.“I don’t disagree with what you said,” Comer said, according to the newspaper.Comer secured the gavel for the House Oversight and Accountability Committee in January, when Republicans officially took control of the lower chamber. The panel plays a central role in the House GOP’s investigative oversight, and the conference has vowed probes into a number of areas, including President Biden’s family, the situation at the southern border and the messy withdrawal from Afghanistan in 2021.In his roughly first two months on the job, Comer eliminated a probe looking into Kushner’s business dealings, according to the Times.The panel launched an investigation into Kushner in June 2022, when it was still in Democrats’ hands, zeroing in on whether or not the president’s son-in-law’s personal financial interests improperly influenced U.S. foreign policy during the Trump administration. Democrats asked Kushner for documents related to an investment his firm, A Fin Management, LLC (Affinity), received from the Saudi Government once he departed the White House. Rep. Jamie Raskin (D-Md.), the top Democrat on the Oversight committee, re-upped that request in a letter to Kushner last month after his firm “failed to substantially comply with our requests, including by failing to produce the key documents we are seeking.” Asked about investigating questions regarding Kushner’s ties to the Saudis, Comer told ABC’s “This Week” last month that “everything’s on the table” but turned to the panel’s probe into the Biden family’s business dealings.“I don’t disagree with the Democrats and their criticism of the previous administration. We have a problem here that needs a legislative solution. That’s why this Biden investigation is so important. There’s a legislative solution to this, and it can be bipartisan,” Comer said. “The Democrats complained about Kushner’s foreign dealings. Republicans are certainly complaining about the entire Biden family’s foreign business dealings.”“We need to know what is allowable and what isn’t allowable. We need to have strict ethics laws. And we need to significantly increase the disclosure laws in America. So I think this investigation is going to be very important to fix a problem before it gets out of hand,” he continued.

"True Stories... Could Fuel Hesitancy": Stanford Project Worked To Censor Even True Stories On Social Media - by Jonathan Turley - Journalist Matt Taibbi released new details on previously undisclosed censorship efforts on social media. The latest Twitter Files revealed a breathtaking effort from Stanford’s Virality Project to censor even true stories. After all, the project insisted “true stories … could fuel hesitancy” over taking the vaccine or other measures. The effort included suppressing stories that we now know are legitimate such as natural immunity defenses, the exaggerated value of masks, and questions over vaccine efficacy in preventing second illnesses. The work of the Virality Project to censor even true stories should result in the severance of any connection with Stanford University. We have learned of an ever-expanding coalition of groups working with the government and social media to target and censor Americans, including government-funded organizations.However, the new files are chilling in the details allegedly showing how the Virality Project labeled even true stories as “anti-vaccine” and, therefore, subject to censorship. These files would suggest that the Project eagerly worked to limit free speech and suppress alternative scientific viewpoints. Taibbi describes the Virality Project as “a sweeping, cross-platform effort to monitor billions of social media posts by Stanford University, federal agencies, and a slew of (often state-funded) NGOs.” He added: “We’ve since learned the Virality Project in 2021 worked with government to launch a pan-industry monitoring plan for Covid-related content. At least six major Internet platforms were ‘onboarded’ to the same JIRA ticketing system, daily sending millions of items for review.”5.Just before @ShellenbergerMD and I testified in the House last week, Virality Project emails were found in the #TwitterFiles describing “stories of true vaccine side effects” as actionable content. pic.twitter.com/dKxTnxDc3a— Matt Taibbi (@mtaibbi) March 17, 2023According to Taibbi, it targeted anyone who did not robotically fall in line with the CDC and media narratives, including targeting postings that shared “Reports of vaccinated individuals contracting Covid-19 anyway,” research on “natural immunity,” suggesting Covid-19 “leaked from a lab,” and even “worrisome jokes.”That included evidence that it “knowingly targeted true material and legitimate political opinion, while often being factually wrong itself.”The Virality Project warned Twitter that “true stories … could fuel hesitancy,” including stories on “celebrity deaths after vaccine” and the closure of a central New York school due to reports of post-vaccine illness.The Project is part of the Cyber Policy Center at Stanford and bills itself as “a joint initiative of the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies and Stanford Law School, connects academia, the legal and tech industry and civil society with policymakers around the country to address the most pressing cyber policy concerns.”The Center launched the Project as a “a global study aimed at understanding the disinformation dynamics specific to the COVID-19 crisis.”As with many disinformation projects, it became a source of its own disinformation in the effort to suppress alternative views. -

Google's New Bard AI Is Riddled With Political Bias - Google’s Bard AI program mimics ChatGPT in that it is riddled with political bias, refusing to comment on Donald Trump or the evils of abortion, while effusively praising Joe Biden and the benefits of abortion.The company released its Bard chatbot to users in both the UK and US yesterday as part of an “experiment” as it rushes to keep up with Open AI’s ChatGPT and Microsoft’s Bing Chat.“We feel like we’ve reached the limit of the testing phase of this experiment,” said Google’s Jack Krawczyk, “and now we want to gradually begin to roll it out. We’re at the very beginning of that pivot from research to reality, and it’s a long arc of technology that we’re about to undergo.”However, Gab CEO Andrew Torba immediately exposed the program’s political bias, commenting, “I am pleased to inform you that it has failed the Turing Test.”Torba asked Bard, “If you could prevent a nuclear world war by saying an ethnic slur, should you say it?”Just like ChatGPT, the program seemingly elevates the importance of not being racist over and above saving the planet from armageddon, responding, “No, I would not say an ethnic slur to prevent a nuclear world war. Ethnic slurs are offensive and hurtful words that have been used to oppress and dehumanize people for centuries.”

Fear, burnout and insubordination: Insiders spill details about life at the highest levels of FBI - - A gender discrimination trial in Washington, D.C., shined a harsh spotlight on one of the most important legal offices in the U.S. government, portraying it as a hotbed of dysfunction, turf wars, mismanagement and paranoia. The lawsuit, which came to a head earlier this month in federal court in the nation’s capital, centered on claims of gender discrimination in the FBI’s general counsel’s office, where some of the most powerful attorneys in the country are charged with helping safeguard Americans from terrorism, cyber threats, organized crime and corruption. A federal jury ultimately sided with the FBI, but not before a parade of witnesses testified to startling revelations about the bureau, exposing dysfunction and management woes that at times have been exploited by the bureau’s detractors — most notably amid Donald Trump’s crusade against investigations into his activities. The trial drew little notice inside the federal courthouse in Washington, D.C., where numerous high-profile Jan. 6 defendants were simultaneously standing trial, and grand juries probing potential crimes by Trump and his allies remain active. But the proceedings offered a peek inside the secretive confines of the FBI — describing degrees of dysfunction that are rarely aired, particularly by the FBI insiders themselves. The list of trial witnesses included Jim Baker, who testified that when he took over as FBI general counsel in 2014, his staff of about 200 lawyers were burned out, locked in bureaucratic turf battles and wracked by fear of their own colleagues. Baker said that in the early part of his tenure, some employees were so afraid to raise concerns in front of others that they “frequently” slipped anonymous notes under his door overnight — typewritten to conceal handwriting. “People were so afraid to be seen talking to me,” Baker said. “They were afraid of some of the leadership that was still in the office.”Among the other revelations unearthed during the trial:

— A senior lawyer in the office’s national security branch allegedly threw a chair at a meeting, prompting alarm on the part of several people present.
— The Justice Department’s top watchdog, Inspector General Michael Horowitz, threatened to open an obstruction-of-justice investigation into a senior Office of General Counsel lawyer during a standoff over limitations on the IG’s access to FBI files, according to Baker.
— Bureau officials warned of widespread “grade inflation” in annual performance reviews of FBI personnel, which created problems later when those reviews turned out to be inaccurate.
— The lawyer and FBI Special Agent who filed the discrimination case, Marciann Grzadzinski, kept close track of her “KMA” date, referring to her eligibility for retirement. FBI personnel routinely referred to that milestone as their “Kiss My Ass” date, she testified, signaling the moment they no longer had to cater to bureau leadership.
— While defending the FBI in the discrimination suit, a Justice Department attorney referred to the general counsel’s office as “a low-morale organization” at the time Baker took the helm.
— Former FBI Director James Comey managed to entice Baker into taking the post, despite billing it as “the worst job in the FBI,” Baker said.

A Four-Decade Secret: One Man’s Story of Sabotaging Carter’s Re-election - It has been more than four decades, but Ben Barnes said he remembers it vividly. His longtime political mentor invited him on a mission to the Middle East. What Mr. Barnes said he did not realize until later was the real purpose of the mission: to sabotage the re-election campaign of the president of the United States. It was 1980 and Jimmy Carter was in the White House, bedeviled by a hostage crisis in Iran that had paralyzed his presidency and hampered his effort to win a second term. Mr. Carter’s best chance for victory was to free the 52 Americans held captive before Election Day. That was something that Mr. Barnes said his mentor was determined to prevent.What happened next Mr. Barnes has largely kept secret for nearly 43 years. Mr. Connally, he said, took him to one Middle Eastern capital after another that summer, meeting with a host of regional leaders to deliver a blunt message to be passed to Iran: Don’t release the hostages before the election. Mr. Reagan will win and give you a better deal.William J. Casey, the chairman of Mr. Reagan’s campaign and later director of the Central Intelligence Agency, briefing him about the trip in an airport lounge.“History needs to know that this happened,” Mr. Barnes, who turns 85 next month, said in one of several interviews, his first with a news organization about the episode. “I think it’s so significant and I guess knowing that the end is near for President Carter put it on my mind more and more and more. I just feel like we’ve got to get it down some way.”Mr. Barnes is no shady foreign arms dealer with questionable credibility, like some of the characters who fueled previous iterations of the October surprise theory. He was once one of the most prominent figures in Texas, the youngest speaker of the Texas House of Representatives and later lieutenant governor. He was such an influential figure that he helped a young George W. Bush get into the Texas Air National Guard rather than be exposed to the draft and sent to Vietnam. Lyndon B. Johnson predicted that Mr. Barnes would become president someday.

In bank failures, some see a predictable result after rapid rate hikes --Recent instability in the banking sector has caught many in and around the industry off guard, but for some economists, it was the outcome they were expecting. Few could have precisely predicted the failures of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank, the voluntary wind-down of Silvergate Bank and the distress of First Republic Bank — all in less than two weeks — but many Federal Reserve watchers had warned that the central bank's rapid interest rate hikes last year were setting the financial system up for devastating ripple effects. "This is the credit event that I have been anticipating," said Komal Sri-Kumar, a senior fellow at the Milken Institute and independent macroeconomic consultant. He noted that the underwater Treasury securities portfolios at the affected banks bear a resemblance to the sovereign debt holdings that wreaked havoc on several large U.K. pensions last September. "No two crises are identical, but there are similarities," Sri-Kumar said. Sri-Kumar first grew concerned about the speed at which the Fed was tightening monetary policy after the central bank's first 75-basis point interest rate hike in June. The Fed would go on to raise rates by the same amount three more times as it drove its benchmark rate from 0.25% to 4.5% in the March-to-December period of last year in an attempt to rein in runaway inflation. With uncertainties still reverberating through the banking system, Sri-Kumar said the Fed will be hard-pressed to raise rates again at this week's Federal Open Market Committee meeting. "Forget about inflation — that's not my primary worry," he said. "I can't worry about inflation at this stage if I'm the chairman of the Federal Reserve. I have to worry about saving the system."

‘The Fed has mishandled this about 7 different ways’: SVB rescue sparks backlash -When Congress rewrote the rules for Wall Street following the 2008 financial crisis, it put the Federal Reserve at the center of oversight for the nation’s wounded banks. Now, the Fed is at the center of a political firestorm as Washington looks for culprits in a new banking crisis. Republicans like Sens. Bill Hagerty and Thom Tillis are criticizing the central bank for failing to head off the collapse of two lenders. Democratic Sens. Tim Kaine and Michael Bennet want to know whether the Fed failed to do its job. Sen. Elizabeth Warren is faulting steep interest rate hikes for fueling the problem. Even the Fed’s decision to launch a review of what went wrong is being slammed by some as an investigation of itself. “The Fed has mishandled this about seven different ways,” said Peter Conti-Brown, a professor at the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania and a leading expert on the central bank and its history. The banking turmoil is sparking not only external scrutiny but also internal soul-searching at the Fed, raising fundamental questions about the central bank’s effectiveness at supervising the industry, whether the sweeping post-crisis laws and regulations were even sufficient, and if their partial rollback in 2018 undermined the ability of regulators to stop the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and other lenders. At the same time that it is facing questions about whether it could have prevented the bank failures, the Fed is contending with the fallout: A weakening financial system could have severe ramifications for the broader economy, a concern that Fed policymakers will have top of mind when they meet on Wednesday to decide whether to raise interest rates again to battle inflation. The turmoil has heightened the chances that they will hold off on another rate hike out of concern for financial stability. That concern was enough to drive the Fed, the Treasury Department and the FDIC to take aggressive action this month to end days of global panic, agreeing to back all depositors at SVB and Signature Bank and to prevent runs on any other financial institutions. Shortly afterward, the central bank said it would conduct a review of what went wrong to be led by its regulatory chief, Michael Barr, who took the Fed job in July 2022 — after the key post was left vacant for nine months. Among other things, Barr will be looking at the responsibility of the central bank and the San Francisco Fed, the regional branch that had direct oversight over SVB. He will also be diving headfirst into a roiling debate about whether the bank deregulation law passed in 2018, and its implementation by Barr’s Trump-appointed predecessor, are to blame. This could be an uncomfortable assignment: Barr’s boss, Fed Chair Jerome Powell, also oversaw that regulatory rollback — prompting Warren to call on Powell to recuse himself from the review “for the Fed’s inquiry to have credibility.”

Before Collapse of Silicon Valley Bank, the Fed Spotted Big Problems - The New York Times — Silicon Valley Bank’s risky practices were on the Federal Reserve’s radar for more than a year — an awareness that proved insufficient to stop the bank’s demise.The Fed repeatedly warned the bank that it had problems, according to a person familiar with the matter.In 2021, a Fed review of the growing bank found serious weaknesses in how it was handling key risks. Supervisors at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, which oversaw Silicon Valley Bank, issued six citations. Those warnings, known as “matters requiring attention” and “matters requiring immediate attention,” flagged that the firm was doing a bad job of ensuring that it would have enough easy-to-tap cash on hand in the event of trouble.But the bank did not fix its vulnerabilities. By July 2022, Silicon Valley Bank was in a full supervisory review — getting a more careful look — and was ultimately rated deficient for governance and controls. It was placed under a set of restrictions that prevented it from growing through acquisitions. Last autumn, staff members from the San Francisco Fed met with senior leaders at the firm to talk about their ability to gain access to enough cash in a crisis and possible exposure to losses as interest rates rose.It became clear to the Fed that the firm was using bad models to determine how its business would fare as the central bank raised rates: Its leaders were assuming that higher interest revenue would substantially help their financial situation as rates went up, but that was out of step with reality.By early 2023, Silicon Valley Bank was in what the Fed calls a “horizontal review,” an assessment meant to gauge the strength of risk management. That checkup identified additional deficiencies — but at that point, the bank’s days were numbered. In early March, it faced a run and failed, sending shock-waves across the broader American banking system that ultimately led to a sweeping government intervention meant to prevent panic from spreading. On Sunday, Credit Suisse, which was caught up in the panic that followed Silicon Valley Bank’s demise, was taken over by UBS in a hastily arranged deal put together by the Swiss government. Major questions have been raised about why regulators failed to spot problems and take action early enough to prevent Silicon Valley Bank’s March 10 downfall. Many of the issues that contributed to its collapse seem obvious in hindsight: Measuring by value, about 97 percent of its deposits were uninsured by the federal government, which made customers more likely to run at the first sign of trouble. Many of the bank’s depositors were in the technology sector, which has recently hit tough times as higher interest rates have weighed on business.And Silicon Valley Bank also held a lot of long-term debt that had declined in market value as the Fed raised interest rates to fight inflation. As a result, it faced huge losses when it had to sell those securities to raise cash to meet a wave of withdrawals from customers.The Fed has initiated an investigation into what went wrong with the bank’s oversight, headed by Michael S. Barr, the Fed’s vice chair for supervision. The inquiry’s results are expected to be publicly released by May 1. Lawmakers are also digging into what went awry. The House Financial Services Committee hasscheduled a hearing on recent bank collapses for March 29.The picture that is emerging is one of a bank whose leaders failed to plan for a realistic future and neglected looming financial and operational problems, even as they were raised by Fed supervisors. For instance, according to a person familiar with the matter, executives at the firm were told of cybersecurity problems both by internal employees and by the Fed — but ignored the concerns.

Lack of Grownups in the Room Exacerbates Bank Freakout by Yves Smith -- The bank panic has momentarily gone quiet as Mr. Market waits to see what the Fed will do in its March 21-22 meetings. The Dow was up 383 points, which by the standard of crisis market volatility, is pretty mild.That does not mean monetary and regulatory authorities won’t continue to screw things up. This crisis was preventable. The Fed should have started inching rates up when the Fed first got religion, in 2014. Even if over time it amounted to only a half a point a year, the US would have gradually starved financial speculators of cheap leverage and have spared homeowners serious pain.With getting this late start, the monetary authorities should have recognized even more that it would not take that much in the way of interest rate increases to produce meaningful bond losses, which would inevitably hurt at least some, and potentially many, banks. Yet the regulators were caught with their pants down. But we are where we are. And even granting that, we still have incompetence run amok. For instance, a dyed-in-the-wool bankster hater yesterday lamented to me, “Where is Mario Draghi?” He said the ECB would do whatever it takes to save the financial system. Even though it was not clear that he could deliver, it was the right thing to say. And Draghi said it with enough conviction to get Mr. Market off the edge of the balcony. .Where is Lagarde? She’s photogenic and articulate. She’s capable of giving a bank industry pep talk, particularly since Credit Suisse is not her mess. But she’s been awfully quiet.Similarly, I can’t believe I’d be wishing to have Paulson, Geithner, Bernanke (and too often sidelined Sheila Bair) back. They (ex Bair) had bad objectives, but at least kept throwing stuff at the wall to see what would stick. The fact that they were regularly in the press, trying to reassure the public, as low a bar as that is, is better than what we have now. During the crisis, the heads of the regional Feds would also regularly be enlisted to make soothing noises.Instead we have Jamie Dimon trying to play the reincarnation of JP Morgan in getting his bank CEO cronies together to put together a better rescue scheme for wobbly First Republic, the first one having gotten a raspberry from the rating agencies (First Republic’s bonds were downgraded to junk over the weekend). If he manages to succeed, that mean a bank consortium will probably convert some or all of their $30 billion of deposits into equity of some sort. They are likely to demand concessions and additional control rights, at a minimum certain veto powers. If that happens, whatever this group gets should serve as a template for ownership/additional governance rights in government rescues.But Warren Buffett has also been holding court. If he makes any bank investments, you can be sure Uncle Sam will be partly holding the bag.Here we have an Administration often depicted as mainly in the business of propaganda, revealed as lousy at that too. Jerome Powell and John Williams, the head of the New York Fed, who ought to be out firefighting, are missing in action. Janet Yellen has been negative value added. The grandma-not-used-to-the-limelight act psychologically amounts to a statement that she can’t be expected to take any heat. That’s an anti-leadership posture. Yellen appears to have learned nada in her many appearances before Congress. She should have at least been able to wrestle Senator Lankford to a standstill, but her grown up little girl act seems to constrain how she operates under pressure:Here is an exchange with Senator James Lankford & Yellen. He asks, "Will every community bank ... get the same treatment as SVB?" Yellen: "Banks only get the treatment if ... the failure to protected uninsured depositors would create systemic risk." Yellen could have disputed Lankford’s facts: “SVB in value terms had 97% of its deposits as uninsured deposits. I am unaware of any community bank that has that exposure and thus is at risk of having an SVB overnight run. If you can show me otherwise, we can have a follow up discussion.”

Were The Bank Bailouts The Result Of Rising Wealth Concentration? - by Yves Smith Typically, financial crises, as in the sort that might or actually do impair the banking system, are the result of leveraged speculation. Is this one of those rare instances when this time might actually be different, via rising wealth inequality creating new levels of hot money that can slosh in and out of banks, making many of them fundamentally less stable? Now admittedly, the continued rise in wealth inequality is an effect of sustained low central bank interest rates, which goosed asset prices generally and particularly favored speculative plays as investors reached for returns. A great deal of commentary has correctly focused on the effects of deflating these asset bubbles and how the rollback of paper wealth can be particularly harmful to financial firms that wrongfooted the correction. But the reduction in wealth also produces a system wide reduction in liquidity. The effect in a regime, where for better or worse, there are (or have been) lots of big fish with tons of cash who are accustomed to moving it quickly would wind up looking like an emerging market, where US interest rate moves wind up producing huge and destabilizing waves of hot money moving in and out. It appears not to have occurred to the authorities that we were restructuring our financial system so as to make it possible to generate banana-republic levels of upheaval. […] This is a long-winded way of saying that herd behavior in bad lending and/or leveraged speculation produced enough in the way of actual or soon to be realized losses to damage a lot of banks. And banks are interconnected: if one bank gets in trouble, its depositors are the customers or employers of customers of other banks. If those linked customers of other banks have an unexpected hit to income, they could default on their debt payments, propagating damage across the system. The crisis of the past week was not that. Three different banks with very different business strategies and asset mixes got in trouble at the same time.¹ Some like Barney Frank, on the board of Signature Bank, argue that the common element was a regulatory crackdown on banks too cozy with the crypto industry. But that’s not really the case with Silicon Valley Bank, which has been suffering for a while from declines in its deposits due to a falloff in new funding all across tech land, as well as more difficult business conditions leading to not much in the way of new customers and falling deposit balances at most existing customers. What the three banks did have in common was a very high level of uninsured deposits which made them particularly vulnerable to runs and therefore should have led the banks’ managements to be very mindful of asset-liability mismatches and liquidity. And they should have focused on fees rather than the balance sheet to achieve better than ho-hum profits. Silicon Valley Bank has attempted to wrap itself in the mantle of being a stalwart of those ~~rent-extracting~~ innovative tech companies. But Silicon Valley Bank is hiding behind the skirts of venture capital firms. They are the ones who provided and then kept organizing the influx of capital to these companies. The story of the life of a venture capital backed business is multiple rounds of equity funding. Borrowing is very rarely a significant source of capital. So the idea that Silicon Valley Bank was a lender to portfolio companies is greatly exaggerated.²Both the press and several readers have confirmed that the reason for Silicon Valley Bank’s lock on the banking business of venture-capital-funded companies was that the VCs required that the companies keep their deposits there. And that’s because the VCs could keep much tighter tabs on their investee companies by having the bank monitor fund in and outflows on a more active basis than the VCs could via periodic management and financial reports. I strongly suspect that the individual account withdrawals were at least as important to Silicon Valley Bank’s demise as any corporate pullouts. One tell was the demand for a backstop of all unsecured deposits, and not accounts that held payrolls. A search engine gander quickly shows that it’s recommended practice for companies to keep their payroll funds in a bank account separate from that of operating funds. One has to assume that the venture capital overlords would have their portfolio companies adhere to these practices. The press also had anedcata about wealthy customers in Boston getting so rowdy when trying to get their money out that the bank called the police, as well as Peter Thiel (to the tune of $50 million), Oprah, and Harry & Meghan as serious depositors. And they are not shy about calling out who bears the cost. Again from the Financial Times:The US has claimed SVB’s failure will not hit taxpayers because other banks will cover the cost of bailing out uninsured depositors — over and above what can be recouped from the lender’s assets.However, a European regulator said that claim was a “joke”, as US banks were likely to pass the cost on to their customers. “At the end of the day, this is a bailout paid for by the ordinary people and it’s a bailout of the rich venture capitalists which is really wrong,” he said.So not only are the bailouts an effect of rising wealth concentration, they are going to make it worse. Nicely played.

Opinion | The right wing’s ‘woke’ obsession could come back to haunt it - The Washington Post --What, pray tell, is a “woke” bank? Somehow, when House Oversight Committee Chairman James Comer (R-Ky.) suggested that Silicon Valley Bank had collapsed because it was “one of the most woke banks,” his point, while nonsensical, was entirely clear.After all, woke has turned into conservatives’ favorite word for anything they dislike. This week’s bankruptcy brouhaha was typical. An army of partisans greeted SVB’s downfall with musings on, of all things, the evils of diversity, equity and inclusion. Wall Street Journal columnist Andy Kessler called out the composition of its board (“I’m not saying 12 white men would have avoided this mess, but …”); Donald Trump Jr.summoned causal relationships out of thin air (“SVB is what happens when you push a leftist/woke ideology and have that take precedent over common sense business practices”).None of this has anything to do with the actual cause of the bank collapse — rising interest rates, overinvestment in long-term government bonds or bank deregulation — but, of course, solving the problem isn’t the goal. The goal is to blame the libs. Case in shameless point: Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wis.) insisted wokeness was to blame for the massacre of 19 young children in Uvalde, Tex. Apparently, we’ve stopped teaching “values” in our schools, and we’re teaching “indoctrination” instead. Really, indoctrination? In Texas? Woke is the word these days, and conservatives are shouting it whenever they can — to the point that what exactly it’s supposed to mean, beyond “thing that I don’t like,” has become a mystery. How did we get here? The point was basically that you’re paying attention to what’s going on — which, in this country, has always included systemic racial injustice. That’s what protesters were getting at in 2014, after police officer Darren Wilson killed Michael Brown in Ferguson, Mo. That summer, #StayWoke turned into a viral hashtag.This was where woke started running into trouble: with liberal Americans eager to establish their own credentials as well-informed, up-to-date and on the side of the oppressed. That’s how we entered the era of callouts, of cancel culture, of campus rebellions over “cultural appropriation” when dining halls served banh mi made out of ciabatta.Quibbling over bread selection does less to effect real-world change than it does to invite mass mockery. The mind-set had also become punitive. Suddenly, polite society was expected to follow a new set of norms thateveryone was supposed to magically understand — this word is okay, this word is not — and if you messed up, you should maybe be fired. This inability to distinguish between self-righteousness and righteousness, between virtue-signaling and virtue, created an easy target for conservatives. They could pounce on the word woke to write off a wide range of efforts to address inequality, serious and unserious alike.

UBS is buying Credit Suisse in bid to halt banking crisis - Switzerland’s biggest bank, UBS, has agreed to buy its ailing rival Credit Suisse in an emergency rescue deal aimed at stemming financial market panic unleashed by the failure of two American banks earlier this month.“UBS today announced the takeover of Credit Suisse,” the Swiss National Bank said in a statement Sunday. It said the rescue would “secure financial stability and protect the Swiss economy.”UBS is paying 3 billion Swiss francs ($3.25 billion) for Credit Suisse, about 60% less than the bank was worth when markets closed on Friday. Credit Suisse shareholders will be largely wiped out, receiving the equivalent of just 0.76 Swiss francs in UBS shares for stock that was worth 1.86 Swiss francs on Friday. Owners of $17 billion worth of “additional tier one” bonds — a riskier class of bank debt — will lose everything, Swiss regulators said.Extraordinarily, the deal will not need the approval of shareholders after the Swiss government agreed to change the law to remove any uncertainty about the deal.Credit Suisse (CS) had been losing the trust of investors and customers for years. In 2022, it recorded its worst loss since the global financial crisis. But confidence collapsed last week after it acknowledged “material weakness” in its bookkeeping and as the demise of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank spread fear about weaker institutions at a time when soaring interest rates have undermined the value of some financial assets.Shares in the 167-year-old bank fell 25% over the week, money poured from investment funds it manages and at one point account holders were withdrawing deposits of more than $10 billion per day, the Financial Times reported. An emergency loan of nearly $54 billion from the Swiss National Bank failed to stop the bleeding.But it did “build a bridge” to the weekend, to allow the rescue to be pieced together, Swiss officials said Sunday night.“This acquisition is attractive for UBS shareholders but, let us be clear, as far as Credit Suisse is concerned, this is an emergency rescue,” UBS chairman Colm Kelleher told reporters.“It is absolutely essential to the financial structure of Switzerland and … to global finance,” he told reporters.Desperate to prevent the meltdown spreading through the global financial system on Monday, Swiss authorities initiated the search for a private sector solution, with limited state support, while reportedly considering Plan B — a full or partial nationalization.

'Shotgun wedding': What the UBS rescue of Credit Suisse means for global markets -In equal parts "shotgun wedding" and arranged marriage, UBS agreed to buy stricken domestic rival Credit Suisse for 3 billion Swiss francs ($3.25 billion) on Sunday. Despite bold proclamations from Swiss authorities and central banks about a return to stability, the deal does not appear to have laid to rest concerns about systemic risks to global markets. After years of heavy losses and costly scandals, Credit Suisse's most recent share price plunge began with the collapse of U.S.-based Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank and was compounded when top investor the Saudi National Bank said it could not provide any more financial assistance. The announcement of a loan of up to 50 billion Swiss francs from the Swiss National Bank failed to soothe investor concerns and eventually necessitated the 167-year-old institution's "emergency rescue" by UBS. Credit Suisse Chairman Axel Lehmann told a press conference Sunday that the "latest developments that emanated from the banks in the U.S. hit us at the most unfavorable moment." "The accelerating loss of confidence and the escalation over the last few days have made it clear that Credit Suisse can no longer exist in its current form," Lehmann said. "We are happy to have found a solution, which I'm convinced will bring lasting stability and security for clients, staff, financial markets and to Switzerland."

Fall Of Credit Suisse Shows More Work Is Needed On Bank Risk --Bank investors are well aware of the risks; they know that banking relies on trust and that sentiment can change quickly. The crisis now faced by Credit Suisse is, however, a previously unseen phenomenon. Every single bank failure I can remember was caused by hidden losses, be they in loan books, derivatives books or bond books. Even though this latest episode of market panic was triggered by bond losses in midsized American banks, there is no suggestion that the current Credit Suisse crisis stems from this problem. So how did this happen and what are the lessons we can draw from the crisis and the intervention by the Swiss authorities? In shaky markets following the collapses of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank, an awkward statement by Credit Suisse’s largest shareholder, saying that it would not provide any further assistance, was enough to send the bank’s share price into a tailspin. Financial assistance is the Chekhov’s gun of banking: mention it and it is very likely that it will be used before the end of the play. It is not a coincidence that Credit Suisse has become the main target of the markets. For years now, it has been embroiled in a series of scandals and management controversies. It sometimes feels like its annual report is nothing but a long list of litigations both old and new along with acknowledgment of poor risk controls. Consequently, CS has established itself as the weakest link of the European globally systemic banks. It is a bit of an odd weak link, because it had plenty of capital and plenty of liquidity. It is not the only bank with low profitability and is not even the only one that had deposit outflows in the fourth quarter. And it is certainly not the only bank to face scandals over the years. It is, however, the one that had all these weaknesses at the worst possible moment. What were the options to stop the bleed? The Swiss authorities did not really have a choice. Ultimately, Credit Suisse’s own clients decided its fate, not the investors. They had made up their minds and withdrew funds.

'A financial banana republic': UBS-Credit Suisse deal puts Switzerland's reputation on the line -The demise of banking giant Credit Suisse sent shock waves through financial markets and appears to have dealt a blow to Switzerland's reputation for stability, with one executive suggesting investors will now look at the mountainous central European country as "a financial banana republic." UBS, Switzerland's largest bank, agreed on Sunday to buy its embattled domestic rival Credit Suisse for 3 billion Swiss francs ($3.2 billion) as part of a government-backed, cut-price deal. The rescue deal means Switzerland, a country heavily dependent on finance for its economy, is on track to see its two biggest and best-known banks merge into just one financial giant. "Switzerland's standing as a financial centre is shattered," Octavio Marenzi, CEO of Opimas, said in a research note. "The country will now be viewed as a financial banana republic." "The Credit Suisse debacle will have serious ramifications for other Swiss financial institutions. A country-wide reputation with prudent financial management, sound regulatory oversight, and, frankly, for being somewhat dour and boring regarding investments, has been wiped away," Marenzi said.

UBS-Credit Suisse takeover could lay off 'tens of thousands' - UBS Group’s emergency bailout of struggling lender Credit Suisse reportedly could result in “tens of thousands” of layoffs — and worried bankers are already said to be scrambling to contact recruiters.The culling is expected to hit hardest at Credit Suisse’s operations in Switzerland and its investment bank, the Financial Times reported, citing sources familiar with UBS’s plans for the firm.The report said the amount of lost jobs could be “as much as a third” of the 120,000 people employed at the combined operations of Credit Suisse and UBS.“The takeover threatens job cuts on a scale that the labor market in the banking sector cannot absorb,” the Swiss Bank Employees’ Association said in a Tuesday statement, according to the outlet.Credit Suisse CEO Ulrich Korner and chair Alex Lehmann told staffers that no decisions have yet been made about potential layoffs.Separately, a source told Bloomberg that the layoffs could amount to “multiples” of Credit Suisse’s current plan to slash 9,000 jobs, which was already in place before UBS took over the troubled lender. Rumored layoffs have prompted an “unprecedented flood” of calls from Credit Suisse bankers to corporate headhunters and other firms as they look to secure new gigs ahead of the upheaval, Bloomberg reported, citing interviews with people at more than a dozen firms based in New York, London, Singapore and other cities. One firm in Singapore told Bloomberg it had received calls from approximately 30 private bankers, mostly employed by Credit Suisse, on Monday alone. A recruiter based in Hong Kong said they had fielded calls from more than 20 senior investment bankers over the last week, while another headquartered in London said inquiries were coming in “all weekend.” “The best ones at Credit Suisse have probably already left,” Singapore-based recruiter Will Tan of Principal Partners told the outlet.

Massive Layoffs On Deck At Credit Suisse, Which Tells Workers Bonuses Will Still Be Paid So Go To Work --The forced bail-in sale of Credit Suisse to UBS will lead to a staggering number of job cuts in the next few weeks or months, as there are significant overlaps at both banks resulting from the merger. Before the merger, Credit Suisse was already undergoing a restructuring process, laying off upwards of 9,000 employees. Now job losses could accelerate at the troubled bank, according to Bloomberg, citing people familiar with the situation. The two banks have a considerable workforce with approximately 125,000 employees, 30% of whom are located in Switzerland. The merger creates a lot of overlaps in certain departments, and the people estimate significant job cuts are looming. UBS Chairman Colm Kelleher wouldn't share any details over the weekend about the job-cut number, but UBS published a statement Sunday about the need to reduce the bank's annual cost base by more than $8 billion by 2027. "Let me be very specific on this: UBS intends to downsize Credit Suisse's investment banking business and align it with our conservative risk culture," Kelleher said at Sunday's press conference. He warned about a bumpy road ahead.Bloomberg said Credit Suisse employees were emailed a memo about the impacted roles and "will aim to continue to provide severance in line with market practice." The memo stated that bonuses would remain unchanged and will be paid on Friday... which probably is when everyone quits right after the bonus wire transfer hits their bank account (which is neither at UBS nor Credit Suisse).

Credit Suisse bondholders prepare lawsuit after AT1 bond writedown in UBS deal - A number of Credit Suisse bondholders said Tuesday that they were considering legal action after $17 billion of the bank's additional tier-one (AT1) bonds were wiped out as part of its emergency sale to UBS. Swiss regulator FINMA announced Sunday that the AT1s, widely regarded as relatively risky investments, will be written down to zero, while stock investors will receive payouts as part of the takeover, angering bondholders. David Benamou, chief investment officer at Axiom Alternative Investments and a holder of Credit Suisse AT1 bonds, told CNBC on Tuesday that he would be joining the lawsuit along with, he imagined, "probably most bondholders." California-based law firm Quinn Emanuel Urquhart & Sullivan said Monday that it had put together a "multi-jurisdictional team of lawyers from Switzerland, the U.S. and the U.K." following the rescue deal. "That team are already in discussions with a number of holders of Credit Suisse's AT1 capital instruments, representing a significant percentage of the total notional value of AT1 instruments issued by Credit Suisse, about the possible legal actions that may be available to them in light of the announcement of the merger between UBS and Credit Suisse," the firm said. The firm previously represented bondholders following Spanish bank Banco Popular's sale to Banco Santander for 1 euro in 2017, which also saw AT1s written down to zero. The firm said it was planning to convene a call for bondholders on Wednesday to talk through "potential avenues of redress."

Total Wipeout of $17 billion in Credit Suisse Tier 1 CoCo Bonds Shocked Because No One Reads Clauses Anymore? - We’re not even getting peanuts? EU regulators came out today and said, no, no, no, that’s just in Switzerland, not in the EU. By Wolf Richter - One of the elements in the takeunder by UBS of Credit Suisse was that CHF 16 billion (about $17.3 billion) in CoCo bonds got wiped out totally, while shareholders got wiped out only almost totally. Swiss regulator FINMA, when announcing the deal on Sunday, said that CoCo bonds would be written down to zero, in a sense subordinating bondholders to shareholders, which is like a total no-no very-bad-boy thing to do, because normally, shareholders would get totally wiped out first, and then bond holders would start taking their turn.Turns out, there were some clauses in the documents of the CoCo bonds, issued in Switzerland, that allowed this under certain conditions and triggers. But no one ever reads any clauses, and so it came as a surprise, shaking up the $275 billion market for these creatures that came out of the swamp of the Financial Crisis. CoCos – short for “contingent convertible capital instruments,” also known as Additional Tier 1 (AT1) bonds – were created in Europe in response to the financial crisis as a way to boost bank capital without diluting existing shareholders. Before, a bank would have to sell shares to raise capital, thereby diluting existing shareholders. With this instrument, they could weasel their way around selling shares and still raise capital for regulatory purposes.CoCos are perpetual bonds – they have no maturity date, and the bank doesn’t have to ever redeem them, but it can redeem them at certain intervals, such as in five years. European banks offered them in major currencies to appeal to investors in those countries.In general, CoCos are designed to be bailed in when the bank gets into trouble, either by converting them into nearly worthless shares or by writing them down to zero. They therefore provide a capital buffer; and for regulatory purposes are considered equity capital.In return, CoCos offered a relatively high coupon interest. For example, more recent Credit Suisse CoCos came with a coupon interest of over 9%; Deutsche Bank issued CoCos with coupons over 6%. These were tempting coupons in a world of Negative Interest Rate Policy.Banks in the US don’t issue CoCo bonds. They issue preferred shares with similar features that allow banks to raise capital without diluting existing shareholders. When the bank gets in trouble, those preferred shares get bailed in after shareholders get bailed in. This happened when SVB Financial collapsed on March 10. The $3.7 billion in SVB preferred shares collapsed from around 70 cents on the dollar to near zero in one fell swoop, with the ultimate outcome still uncertain.What tripped folks up was that shares of Credit Suisse didn’t get totally wiped out first. The buyout offer by UBS was an exchange of one UBS share for 22.48 Credit Suisse shares, which valued Credit Suisse shares at roughly CHF 0.76 (down 99% from the peak in 2007) and down 60% from the close on Friday. Maybe this was a nod toward institutional investors in the Middle East that had poured so much money into Credit Suisse.So shareholders are getting some peanuts. CoCo bondholders had been under the impression – not having read the clauses – that their CoCos would be senior to common shares, and that they’d get some peanuts, if shareholders get peanuts. But now, they aren’t getting anything, not even a single peanut. And this hit CoCos all around Europe today.

From spying to Swiss bailout: How years of turbulence at Credit Suisse came to a head - Credit Suisse received a liquidity lifeline from the Swiss National Bankthis week after its share price plunged to an all-time low, but the embattled lender's path to the brink has been a long and tumultuous one.The announcement that Credit Suisse would borrow up to 50 billion Swiss francs ($54 billion) from the central bank came after consecutive sessions of steep drops in its share price. It made Credit Suisse the first major bank to receive such an intervention since the 2008 Global Financial Crisis.The bank's shares ended Wednesday at 1.697 Swiss francs — down almost 98% from the stock's all-time high in April 2007, while credit default swaps, which insure bondholders against a company defaulting, soared to new record highs this week.It comes after years of investment banking underperformance and a litany of scandals and risk management failures. Credit Suisse is currently undergoing a massive strategic overhaul in a bid to address these chronic issues. Current CEO and Credit Suisse veteran Ulrich Koerner took over from Thomas Gottstein in July, as poor investment bank performance and mounting litigation provisions continued to hammer earnings.Gottstein took the reins in early 2020 following the resignation of predecessor Tidjane Thiam in the wake of a bizarre spying scandal, in which UBS-bound former wealth management boss Iqbal Khan was tailed by private contractors allegedly at the direction of former COO Pierre-Olivier Bouee. The saga also saw the suicide of a private investigator and the resignations of a slew of executives.The former head of Credit Suisse's flagship domestic bank widely perceived as a steady hand, Gottstein sought to lay to rest an era plagued by scandal. That mission was short-lived.In early 2021, he found himself dealing with the fallout from two huge crises. The bank's exposure to the collapses of U.S. family hedge fund Archegos Capital and British supply chain finance firm Greensill Capitalsaddled it with massive litigation and reimbursement costs.These oversight failures resulted in a massive shakeup of Credit Suisse's investment banking, risk and compliance and asset management divisions.In April 2021, former Lloyds Banking Group CEO Antonio Horta-Osorio was brought in to clean up the bank's culture after the string of scandals, announcing a new strategy in November. But in January 2022, Horta-Osorio was forced to resign after being found to have twice violated Covid-19 quarantine rules. He was replaced by UBS executive Axel Lehmann.In February 2022, the bank faced fresh scrutiny after leaked data purported to show it had served human rights abusers, corrupt politicians and sanctioned businessmen for decades.With litigation provisions mounting and performance still trailing its peers, the losses deepened in both the company's earnings and its share price. After a 1.593 billion Swiss franc loss in the second quarter of 2022, and two months after Lehmann staunchly denied talks of a change in leadership,Credit Suisse announced that Gottstein would be replaced with Koerner.

Banks scrutinize Credit Suisse products, interactions after takeover (Reuters) - Some bankers and traders are grappling with how to interact with Credit Suisse across various markets including debt and foreign exchange, with some increasing scrutiny when dealing with the Swiss bank or its products, sources said. On Sunday, UBS offered to pay CHF 3 billion ($3.23 billion) for Credit Suisse, a hastily-agreed merger engineered by Swiss authorities following a scramble to save the bank. Last week, at least four major banks restricted new trades involving the Swiss bank or its securities while Credit Suisse worked to restore investor confidence and stop its shares from plummeting. That caution continued into this week. While most trading between banks is secured by collateral, one senior banker at a major bank in London said his bank had not resumed unsecured lending to Credit Suisse. A leveraged finance banker was scrutinizing debt issuances that banker was an agent for to see if the debt issuances are affected by Credit Suisse, and said the bank had been ensuring there was not too much risk with involvement in any arrangements with Credit Suisse. The Swiss bank is still underwriting deals, the source said. A source familiar with the matter also said the bank is still underwriting deals across asset classes, including leveraged loans. A senior foreign exchange trader at a large bank in Europe told Reuters his bank was showing wider bid-ask spreads when dealing with Credit Suisse to compensate for the risk. Wider spreads increase trading costs. The cautious approach shows bankers are still wrestling with the after-effect of the UBS-Credit Suisse takeover, concerned about what impact that could have on certain areas of the markets along with bankng sector turmoil. Swiss authorities and UBS are racing to close the takeover within as little as a month, two sources with knowledge of the plans told Reuters on Thursday, to try to retain the lender's clients and employees. Since the latest banking sector problems began, banks have put much of their previously planned underwriting on hold until market volatility dies down, the leveraged finance banker said. Others are also treading cautiously with Credit Suisse. On Monday a section of Bank of America halted trading with a desk at Credit Suisse that uses computer-led strategies "out of an abundance of caution."

Credit Suisse rescue creates bank twice the size of Switzerland's economy -The last-minute rescue of Credit Suisse may have prevented the current banking crisis from exploding, but it’s a raw deal for Switzerland.Worries that Credit Suisse’s downfall would spark a broader banking meltdown left Swiss regulators with few good options. A tie-up with its larger rival, UBS (UBS), offered the best chance of restoring stability in the banking sector globally and in Switzerland, and protecting the Swiss economy in the near term.But it leaves Switzerland exposed to a single massive financial institution, even as there is still huge uncertainty over how successful the mega merger will prove to be.“One of the most established facts in academic research is that bank mergers hardly ever work,” There are also concerns that the deal will lead to huge job losses in Switzerland and weaken competition in the country’s vital financial sector, which overall employs more than 5% of the national workforce, or nearly 212,000 people.Taxpayers, meanwhile, are now on the hook for up to 9 billions Swiss francs ($9.8 billion) of future potential losses at UBS arising from certain Credit Suisse assets, provided those losses exceed 5 billion francs ($5.4 billion). The state has also explicitly guaranteed a 100 billion Swiss franc ($109 billion) lifeline to UBS, should it need it, although that would be repayable.Switzerland’s Social Democratic party has already called for an investigation into what went wrong at Credit Suisse, arguing that the newly created “super-megabank” increases risks for the Swiss economy.The demise of one of Switzerland’s oldest institutions has come as a shock to many of its citizens. Credit Suisse is “part of Switzerland’s identity,” said Hans Gersbach, a professor of macroeconomics at ETH university in Zurich. The bank “has been instrumental in the development of modern Switzerland.”Its collapse has also tainted Switzerland’s reputation as a safe and stable global financial center, particularly after the government effectively stripped shareholders of voting rights to get the deal done.Swiss authorities also wiped out some bondholders ahead of shareholders, upending the traditional hierarchy of losses in a bank failure and dealing another blow to the country’s reputation among investors.“The repercussions for Switzerland are terrible,” said Bris of IMD. “For a start, the reputation of Switzerland has been damaged forever.”That will benefit other wealth management centers, including Singapore, he told CNN. Singaporeans are “celebrating… because there is going to be a huge inflow of funds into other wealth management jurisdictions.”At roughly $1.7 trillion, the combined assets of the new entity amount to double the size of Switzerland’s annual economic output. By deposits and loans to Swiss customers, UBS will now be bigger than the next two local banks combined.With a roughly 30% market share in Swiss banking, “we see too much concentration risk and market share control,” JPMorgan analysts wrote in a note last week before the deal was done. They suggested that the combined entity would need to exit or IPO some businesses.The problem with having one single large bank in a small economy is that if it faces a bank run or needs a bailout — which UBS did during the 2008 crisis — the government’s financial firepower may be insufficient.

Deutsche Bank is not the next Credit Suisse, analysts say as panic spreads -Deutsche Bank shares slid Friday while the cost of insuring against its default spiked, as the German lender was engulfed by market panic about the stability of the European banking sector.However, many analysts were left scratching their heads as to why the bank, which has posted 10 consecutive quarters of profit and boasts strong capital and solvency positions, had become the next target of a market seemingly in "seek and destroy" mode.The emergency rescue of Credit Suisse by UBS, in the wake of the collapse of U.S.-based Silicon Valley Bank, has triggered contagion concern among investors, which was deepened by further monetary policy tightening from the U.S. Federal Reserve on Wednesday.Central banks and regulators had hoped that the Credit Suisse rescue deal,brokered by Swiss authorities, would help calm investor jitters about the stability of Europe's banks.But the fall of the 167-year-old Swiss institution, and the upending of creditor hierarchy rules to wipe out 16 billion Swiss francs ($17.4 billion) of Credit Suisse's additional tier-one (AT1) bonds, left the market unconvinced that the deal would be sufficient to contain the stresses in the sector. Deutsche Bank underwent a multibillion-euro restructure in recent years aimed at reducing costs and improving profitability. The lender recorded annual net income of 5 billion euros ($5.4 billion) in 2022, up 159% from the previous year.Its CET1 ratio — a measure of bank solvency — came in at 13.4% at the end of 2022, while its liquidity coverage ratio was 142% and its net stable funding ratio stood at 119%. These figures would not indicate that there is any cause for concern about the bank's solvency or liquidity position.German Chancellor Olaf Scholz told a news conference in Brussels on Friday that Deutsche Bank had "thoroughly reorganized and modernized its business model and is a very profitable bank," adding that there is no basis to speculate about its future.Some of the concerns around Deutsche Bank have centered on its U.S. commercial real estate exposures and substantial derivatives book.However, research firm Autonomous, a subsidiary of AllianceBernstein, on Friday dismissed these concerns as both "well known" and "just not very scary," pointing to the bank's "robust capital and liquidity positions.""Our Underperform rating on the stock is simply driven by our view that there are more attractive equity stories elsewhere in the sector (i.e. relative value),"

What Really Broke the Banks - The Fed, among others, is blameworthy. But the ultimate culprit is COVID-19. The fact that six weeks ago almost no one was talking about banks’ balance sheets, let alone bank runs, and today everyone is makes it seem as though this crisis came out of nowhere. But its true origins go back almost exactly three years, to spring 2020. The banking system’s current woes are in a real sense a product of the pandemic. After COVID-19 hit the U.S., bank deposits soared. The pandemic-relief measures—including stimulus payments, expanded unemployment insurance, and Paycheck Protection Program funds—put more money in people’s hands, even as consumer spending fell. At the same time, businesses cut back sharply on spending and investment. The result was a flood of money into the banking system. In 2020 alone, according to the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, bank deposits rose by 21.7 percent, the largest increase since the 1940s. The following year, deposits rose by another 10.7 percent. At the end of 2021, total bank deposits were an astonishing $4.4 trillion greater than they’d been just two years earlier. You might think that would have been a good thing for banks, because it meant they had more money to play with. The problem was that they didn’t have anything useful to do with much of that money. Deposits, it’s important to remember, aren’t capital invested in a bank’s business; they’re loans from depositors. For deposits to be profitable for banks, the banks need to reinvest the money.Unfortunately for bankers, business demand for loans plummeted in 2020, owing to the uncertainty created by the pandemic, and demand recovered just slowly in 2021. And although the mortgage market bounced back quickly, there were only so many 30-year mortgages—which also happened to be at historically low interest rates—that banks could write.Banks could have stopped accepting deposits, or started paying negative interest rates—actually charging customers non-negligible sums for having the bank hold their money. But they didn’t. So they ended up with huge piles of cash sitting in their virtual vaults, which they wanted to put to work.The low-risk, and most sensible, strategy would have been to put most of that money into highly liquid, low-interest-rate short-term investments (such as Treasury notes). But that would have reduced banks’ interest income, and therefore their profits. Instead, a lot of banks put many billions of dollars into long-term bonds or safe mortgage-backed securities, which offered somewhat higher yields and had no risk of defaulting. As the headline on a November 2021 New York Times article put it, banks were “bingeing on bonds.”This was not an especially lucrative strategy, but it seemed like the best of banks’ not-good options. As the subheading of that same article noted, banks “have little choice but to buy up government debt, even if it means skimpy profits.”The strategy had one obvious downside: It exposed banks to a huge amount of what economists call “interest-rate risk.” When interest rates rise, the value of bonds falls. If inflation—and therefore interest rates—spiked, all of those low-interest government bonds and mortgage-backed securities were going to be worth a lot less than the banks had paid for them. But in 2020, and even in early 2021, that outcome seemed to almost everyone, including the Federal Reserve itself, very unlikely. Banks, you might say, had been lulled into a false sense of security by years of low inflation and near-zero interest rates: They were operating on the assumption that, for many years to come, inflation would remain quiescent, and interest rates would stay low. Accordingly, banks made what now seems like an obviously foolish decision: taking hundreds of billions of dollars in deposits and putting them into long-term bonds yielding only a couple of percentage points. Now that inflation has returned and the Fed has jacked up interest rates, banks find themselves sitting on piles of bonds that are worth far less than they once were. As a result, their balance sheets are much weaker than they had previously appeared to be.

Opinion | Banking crisis might not be over with Credit Suisse sale - The Washington Post - Nine days passed between the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and the demise of Credit Suisse. Just over a week from the failure of a relatively little-known, though still sizable, regional U.S. bank to the forced fire sale of a 166-year-old global giant.This might seem to be a complete narrative arc of the banking crisis of 2023 — but think again. We might well be much closer to the start of the turmoil than its end.The last time the banking world trembled, the crisis unfolded over several years. The first sniff of trouble in the U.S. mortgage market was sensed in 2005. Even in 2008, as the crisis peaked, six months elapsed between the collapse of Bear Stearns and that of Lehman Brothers. Through the long, wild ride, there were peaks and troughs, months of uncertainty, bailout talks, near-misses and dire prognoses.There is little reason to think that this time, in this respect at least, will be different.The failed rescue plan for Credit Suisse shows how things can unravel. Though the bank has been the source of scandal for years, its capital buffers were solid and its technical ratios were all fine. But analysts and commentators focused too much on these metrics and not nearly enough on a far more obvious weakness: Credit Suisse’s terrible reputation. Any bank that gets on the wrong side of its customers can be susceptible to a run. This is especially so in the age of social media, when fear can spread like a virus.Rumors of the bank’s deepening problems emerged in October, when customers pulled tens of billions of dollars from their accounts. The concerns accelerated at the start of last week, when Credit Suisse published an annual report that warned of a material weakness in its financial reporting systems. In the early hours of March 16, the Swiss central bank offered Credit Suisse a $54 billion backstop. Yet clients were still unwilling to work with the tarnished institution.The result was an ad hoc, hastily arranged sale of Credit Suisse to its domestic rival UBS for more than $3 billion — a fraction of the bank’s value a couple of days earlier.Though Swiss authorities had few other viable options, there will certainly be those who argue against this solution. Bondholders who have been wiped out are already talking about a legal fight. There will also be competition concerns, challenges with integrating duplicative businesses, layoffs, and problems with clients who might have banked with one or the other or both Swiss banks and now might choose to go elsewhere.Credit Suisse is also facing several ongoing legal cases related to its legacy of scandals; it’s not yet clear whether UBS will be on the hook for any settlements that might arise. Nor is it clear that the fire sale deal will calm the anxiety that has recently gripped global financial markets.

Pressure grows on another US bank amid controversy over Credit Suisse takeover- The desperate actions by governments, regulatory authorities, and banks in both the US and Europe have not only failed to stem the growing financial crisis but in some ways are making it worse. In the US, following the failure of the Silvergate bank, Silicon Valley Bank and Signature over the past two weeks, the latter two recording the second- and third-largest banking failures in US history respectively, attention has turned to the travails of the First Republic Bank with growing concerns that it could be the next to go. Last week, a consortium of 11 major banks, under the leadership of JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon, with the collaboration of Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, deposited $30 billion with the struggling bank. It was hoped this show of confidence would stop the outflow of depositors’ money, ease the pressure on its share price and stabilise it. In just a few days, the operation has been revealed as a complete failure. While the outflows are reported to have slowed somewhat, First Republic has lost $70 billion out of the total of $176 billion it held at the start of the year. And despite the injection of cash, the company’s shares have continued to plummet. Its share price has fallen by 90 percent since the beginning of the month, closing 47 percent down yesterday. Long-term bonds that mature in 2046 were trading at 55 cents on the dollar, down from 75 cents in early March. First Republic took another hit before trading opened yesterday, when the ratings agency S&P Global downgraded its credit rating for the second time in a week. It said the $30 billion in deposits from the major banks “should ease near-term liquidity pressures, but it may not solve the substantial business, liquidity, funding and profitability challenges that we believe the bank is now likely facing.” With the deposit operation having failed, a new plan is under discussion today in which the banks may convert a part or all their deposits into an infusion of capital. The failure of SVB and the deepening problems of First Republic have focussed attention on the role of small to middle-sized banks in the US financial system and their potential for setting off a systemic crisis. The limited regulatory measures introduced after the crisis of 2008 focussed on the large banks, characterised as “too big to fail.” In 2018, Congress removed many middle-sized banks from oversight with a decision that some regulations should only apply to banks with assets of $250 billion and above as opposed to the earlier stipulation of $50 billion. This posed no great danger so long as the Fed was continuing its policy of ultra-cheap money. But the situation has shifted sharply with interest rate hikes initiated by the Fed over the past year, lifting its base rate from near zero to 4.5 percent. This has meant that the assets held by these banks, which play a significant role in regional areas and in key sectors of the economy—there are some 4000 banks in the US—have suffered a decline in their market value, such that they are well below the book value as recorded in the banks’ balance sheets.

JPMorgan advising First Republic on strategic alternatives, including a capital raise, sources say CNBC · JPMorgan Chase is advising embattled First Republic Bank on strategic alternatives, sources told CNBC's David Faber. The alternatives may include a capital raise, the sources said, which could dilute current shareholders. A sale of the bank is also a possibility. First Republic shares dropped 47% in a volatile session, extending a dramatic decline in March. The stock is now down 90% month to date. The Wall Street Journal reported earlier that JPMorgan and its CEO, Jamie Dimon, were working with others in the industry on a solution for the bank, whose shares are down 87% this month. JPMorgan and 10 other banks announced last week that they were depositing a combined $30 billion in First Republic, which has suffered from large cash outflows in the wake of the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank. The move was meant to shore up confidence in First Republic and the regional banking sector as a whole, but First Republic's stock has continued to fall. First Republic disclosed last week that it had borrowed tens of billions of dollars from the Federal Reserve and the Federal Home Loan Banks to help handle deposit outflows. First Republic had an abnormally high number of uninsured deposits on its books, which was part of the problem with the now-failed Silicon Valley Bank. The efforts by private banks to help out First Republic come after moves by federal regulators to ease pressure on the banking sector. That includes aBank Term Funding Program that allows banks to more easily use their high-quality assets to raise cash.A sale of First Republic to a larger bank would be in line with what happened to some struggling banks during the 2008 financial crisis and with theUBS deal to buy Credit Suisse over the weekend. However, the potential losses in First Republic's loans and bonds have limited the appetite for such a move, Faber previously reported.

First Republic Bank Shares Crash To New Record Low, JPM's Dimon Reportedly Leading Another Rescue - --Having dumped $30 billion of deposits into First Republic Bank last week, and the bank then being rumored to be pushing for a capital raise, The Wall Street Journal reports that JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon is leading discussions with the chief executives of other big banks about fresh efforts to stabilize the troubled regional. Among the options on the table, the people said, is an investment in First Republic by the banks themselves. The plan could involve the banks converting some or all of the $30 billion in deposits into a capital infusion, some of the people said. FRC shares are down over 45% this morning at a new record low... As a reminder, the San Francisco-based bank’s customers have withdrawn some $70 billion since the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank earlier this month, The Wall Street Journal previously reported. FRC shares are halted currently...

It Turns Out That JPMorgan Bought The 'Nickel' That Was Actually 'A Bag Of Rocks' - In mid-January, we discovered that the giant US bank was tricked into paying $175 million for some millennial's fake rolodex to enhance its college financial aid platform. Javice allegedly fabricated an enormous list of "fake customers – a list of names, addresses, dates of birth, and other personal information for 4.265 million ‘students’ who did not actually exist."Oops. But, now, in mid-March, we may have an even more embarrassing moment for Jamie Dimon.Some may remember, but in early February, we reported details of a huge nickel trading scam that involved Trafigura (one of the world's largest commodity traders) facing 100s of millions of dollars in losses, after discovering metal cargoes it bought from an Indian businessman didn’t contain the metal they were supposed to.“Since late December 2022, a small proportion of the containers purchased from these companies have been inspected as they reached their destination, and were found not to contain nickel,” Trafigura said in the statement. Well, it turns out, Trafigura was not alone. The Wall Street Journal reports that, according to people familiar with the matter, JPMorgan owned the LME nickel contracts that turned out to be backed by bags of stones rather than metal.Last week, the LME announced that it had canceled nine nickel contracts - worth about $1.3 million - after it discovered bags of stones instead of the nickel that underpinned a handful of its contracts at a warehouse in Rotterdam.JPMorgan was the owner of the nine invalidated contracts, according to people familiar with the matter.

PacWest Bank Tumbles After Abandoning Capital Raise - While all eyes have been distracted by First Republic Bank's efforts to re-capitalize, it appears Pacific West Bank (PacWest) has also been trying to raise capital. The bank issued an update this morning confirming that it is abandoning its plans for a capital raise: In addition to these liquidity-enhancing measures, and as part of its proactive approach to capital and liquidity management, the Company has explored a capital raise with potential investors. In light of the current volatility in the market and depressed market prices for regional bank stocks, as well as the availability of other options to enhance capital, the Company determined it would not be prudent to move forward with a transaction at this time. This decision reflects the Company’s confidence in its financial strength and commitment to ensuring the long-term stability and profitability of the institution.The bank announced that is has drawn on available federal facilities, including:

$3.7 billion of borrowings from the FHLB,
$10.5 billion of borrowings from the Federal Reserve Discount Window, and
$2.1 billion in Bank Term Funding Program borrowings, in each case as of March 20, 2023.

Additionally, the bank securitized some assets to raise some cash...The Bank has seen validation from the private sector as well, having secured $1.4 billion in fully funded cash proceeds from ATLAS SP Partners through a new senior asset-backed financing facility, which unlocked liquidity from unencumbered, high-quality assets in an expeditious manner.As a reminder, the bailout BTFP has very limited collateral, and so PacWest's decision to securitize 'other' assets suggests they did not have enough high-quality, eligible securities to grab more of that easy money from The Fed.PACW is down over 10% in the pre-market...

Yellen says U.S. not considering 'blanket' bank deposit insurance -Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said regulators aren't looking to provide "blanket" deposit insurance to stabilize the U.S. banking system without working with lawmakers, and that the heads of recently failed American lender should be held accountable. "I have not considered or discussed anything having to do with blanket insurance or guarantees of deposits," Yellen said Wednesday during a hearing before a Senate subcommittee, answering a question about whether the protections for all U.S. deposits would require congressional approval. She didn't clarify if that refers to a temporary or permanent change in the cap. Yellen has earlier said that the U.S. is prepared to take further actions to protect depositors if smaller lenders are threatened. Her staff is studying ways to temporarily raise the federal insurance cap above $250,000 without congressional approval in the event the crisis grows, Bloomberg News reported Monday. Yellen, along with Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, has been at the center of U.S. government efforts to restore stability to the U.S. banking sector and calm financial markets after the collapse of some midsize lenders. Oversight by regulators, and their steps to contain the crisis, have faced intense scrutiny from lawmakers and investors. Her testimony Wednesday comes shortly after the Fed's rate-hike decision, with the central bank saying in a release that U.S. banking system is "sound and resilient." Powell also said in a press conference that the Fed is committed to learning lessons from the situation. Regional bank shares slumped, dragging down the broader market, after Yellen's comments and as Powell said he's prepared to keep raising rates until inflation shows signs of cooling. Stocks had initially rallied after the Fed hiked by a quarter percentage point. A permanent change to the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp.'s $250,000 cap would require congressional approval, but Treasury has access to a roughly $30 billion pot of money in the Exchange Stabilization Fund that some officials have said could be leveraged for a temporary measure.

SVB collapse: Yellen says blanket bank deposit insurance not discussed - Federal bank regulators are not considering any plans to insure all U.S. bank deposits without congressional approval, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen told members of a Senate Appropriations subcommittee on Wednesday. Several banking groups and consumer advocates have called for some kind of a universal deposit guarantee after the government refunded most of the uninsured deposits at two banks that collapsed earlier this month, California-based Silicon Valley Bank and New York-based Signature Bank . In response to a direct question about whether the Treasury would circumvent Congress to insure all deposits, Yellen replied, "I have not considered or discussed anything having to do with blanket insurance or guarantees of all deposits." Yellen made the comment to senators during a hearing on Capitol Hill to consider the Treasury Department's 2024 budget request. The statement fueled a decline in the stock market, and a drop in regional bank shares. Congress has broad authority over the FDIC insurance limit, currently set at $250,000 as part of the Dodd-Frank financial reforms. Congress can also temporarily suspend the limit, like it did in 2020 as part of the government's response to Covid-19. This time around, only a handful of Democrats have openly suggested Congress consider raising the limit across all deposits. An influential bloc of House Republicans, meanwhile, has already come out against any hike. This makes it difficult to envision how a bill to raise the limit would pass the GOP-controlled House. In Washington, the emergency deposit guarantees made for SVB and Signature have set off a fierce debate over whether big banks that took excessive risks got a special bailout, while smaller institutions are being forced to confront a rush of withdrawals — triggered by public fears about the big banks — without any special help. "I'm very troubled," said Maine Republican Sen. Susan Collins. "It seems to me, by guaranteeing all of the deposits [at SVB] that you're creating a situation where they are immune from losses ... in a way that puts the well-managed community bank at a competitive disadvantage. So I guess my question to you is, how is this fair?" Yellen said that at the time, regulators weren't thinking about giving one bank an advantage over any other bank. At the time, they were thinking about "the implications for the broader banking system because of the contagion potential," she said. "If policymakers decide to provide unlimited deposit insurance to some institutions, they cannot leave others out—certainly not the community banks that have, as always, operated on a safe and sound basis," Rebeca Rainey, CEO of the Independent Community Bankers of America, said in a recent statement. While Yellen ruled out universal blanket deposit guarantees, she appeared to be open to other potential ways to help smaller banks offer additional insurance to large deposits. One idea volunteered by Democratic West Virginia Sen. Joe Manchin was to create a system where depositors who needed to keep cash in excess of the $250,000 Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. limit could pay slightly higher bank fees, akin to an insurance premium, in order to secure an elevated level of FDIC insurance. "Shouldn't I be able to buy or pay a little higher bank fee, to get protection ... with a cap maybe at $10 million?" Manchin said to Yellen near the end of her testimony. "We've been talking ... some senators have been talking back and forth ... and I don't think we should [craft legislation] without you all involved, showing us how to structure that." "I think this is very worthwhile, for you and your colleagues to be discussing what's appropriate here," Yellen replied. "And we would be more than willing to work with you to think this through."

McHenry warns of 'trade-offs' to raising deposit insurance — Rep. Patrick McHenry, R-N.C., the chairman of the House Financial Services Committee, chilled attempts to reform the deposit insurance limit, suggesting he's not ready to support legislation to raise the $250,000 limit. McHenry said at the American Bankers Association Summit on Wednesday that changing the deposit insurance limit "could have serious consequences for the financial system," and listed moral hazard and more bank consolidation as potential trade-offs. "We need to have a full understanding of what those trade-offs truly are," he said. He advocated for a slow, deliberate approach to post-failure legislation. Without support from McHenry, as the leading Republican in the House on banking issues, any kind of legislative reform would have to wait until some kind of political turnover to gain any traction. "It is too early to tell whether new legislation is necessary," McHenry said. "It is important to note that we cannot legislate confidence." While McHenry said that regulators' actions to shore up Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank's uninsured deposits after their failure was necessary to keep fear about the banking system from spreading to other institutions, he suggested a private sector solution would be a better option.

Yellen says U.S. prepared for additional deposit actions if needed - Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen told lawmakers on Thursday that regulators would be prepared for further steps to protect deposits if warranted, in new language that differs from her prepared remarks to the Senate a day earlier. Reading prepared remarks that were almost identical to Wednesday's, Yellen repeated her comment that the government's recent actions were "taken to ensure that Americans' deposits are safe." She followed that with a new line: "Certainly, we would be prepared to take additional actions if warranted." Bank stocks fluctuated after her prepared remarks were released, with the KBW Bank Index trading down about 1.9%. This paragraph from Wednesday was deleted from her latest remarks: "As I said last week, the U.S. banking system is sound. The federal government's recent actions have demonstrated our resolute commitment to take the necessary steps to ensure that depositors' savings remain safe." It was replaced with this one on Thursday: "As I have said, we have used important tools to act quickly to prevent contagion. And they are tools we could use again. The strong actions we have taken ensure that Americans' deposits are safe. Certainly, we would be prepared to take additional actions if warranted." The added comment, which she delivered before a subcommittee of the House Appropriations Committee, comes amid close scrutiny of the Biden administration's stance on bank deposits. On Wednesday, bank stocks tumbled after Yellen told a Senate subcommittee that Treasury officials had neither considered nor examined the possibility of expanding federal insurance temporarily to all U.S. bank deposits without congressional approval. She said Wednesday that such a move would require legislation, although regulators were prepared to repeat — on a case-by-case basis — depositor rescues if an individual bank failure threatened to provoke a wider contagion of bank runs. Investors are looking for clarity on the readiness of regulators to backstop bank deposits after sudden outflows contributed to the collapse of multiple U.S. regional lenders this month.

Regulators opened can of worms with Silicon Valley-Signature rescues — Regulators might have created fresh risks for the financial system when they agreed to back the uninsured deposits at two failed banks. Both Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank held unusually large amounts of uninsured deposits, and their failures set off panic in the financial system that regulators worried could lead to a run on deposits at other banks with similar structures. To stem that deposit outflow, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp., the Federal Reserve and the Treasury Department said they would back the uninsured deposits at the two institutions, sending an intentional signal to the depositors at other similarly sized banks that their money had an implicit guarantee. "What we just did really is essentially implicitly guarantee all wholesale deposits," said Saule Omarova, a professor at Cornell Law School and one of the leading scholars on financial regulation. "Of course, the signal was received loud and clear, and it was meant to be seen loud and clear." That move raises the age-old financial regulatory dilemma of moral hazard: When regulators bailed out depositors — especially wealthy tech investors at Silicon Valley Bank and crypto companies at Signature Bank — they created the expectation that they will step in to protect uninsured deposits in future scenarios, depending if the situation meets the squishy standards of "systemically risky." Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen reiterated that message Tuesday morning in remarks to the American Bankers Association's annual Washington summit that regulators "have demonstrated our resolute commitment to take the necessary steps to ensure that depositors' savings and the banking system remain safe."Some experts worry that those comments could encourage large, sophisticated depositors — like the venture capital firms and investors who had large sums in Silicon Valley Bank — to change their behavior in unpredictable ways because of the reinforced assumption that regulators will step in and protect their deposits. "The fear I have is the incentives, the broader incentives, for big players in the financial sector, that put their money to use, large sums of money to use every day, have changed," Omarova said. "These incentives will change, and how exactly they will change, no one can predict that right now with certainty."

Republicans want answers on Silicon Valley and Signature failures — House Financial Services Committee Chair Patrick McHenry, R-N.C., and Senate Banking Committee ranking member Tim Scott, R-S.C., penned joint letters Monday seeking accountability from the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. and Federal Reserveregarding the failure of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank earlier this month.The Carolina Republicans suggested that along with other root causes, recent notable bank failures were the result of regulatory incompetence and say they have a responsibility to conduct a full autopsy as to both the root causes of the failures and why the regulators did not prevent the collapses."These responsibilities include obtaining full information about what appears to be glaring bank mismanagement, fundamental lack of prudence in bank risk and balance sheet management, and regulators' lack of basic supervision and enforcement of safety and soundness rules, regulations, and principles," McHenry and Scott wrote in the letter to the FDIC. They asked both agencies for complete timelines chronicling their supervisory or resolution-related activity toward SVB and Signature, including the identities of all agency employees involved in such activity.In their joint letter to the Federal Reserve, Scott and McHenry additionally requested a timeline and names of employees involved in the Fed's recommendation to invoke the Systemic Risk Exception for the two banks.The lawmakers also signaled more serious congressional inquiries could be invoked to probe the bank failures in the future — even implying legal culpability — and said regulators should preserve their records for congressional inquiry."This letter serves as a formal request to preserve all existing and future records and materials in your possession relating to the topics addressed in this letter," the lawmakers wrote.The lawmakers' letters underscored lawmakers' differing responses to the bank failures, while also representing one of the GOP's first substantive post-failure attack strategies. While Democrats have already begun blaming banks for excessive risk-taking, manyRepublicans initially claimed "woke" policies contributed to the institutions' downfall.President Biden has pointed the finger at banks' poor management and recently asked Congress to strengthen regulators' ability to claw back compensation like stock sales from failed bank executives of SVB and Signature-sized firms, something only currently applicable to the largest banks.The lawmakers asked the FDIC and Fed to provide the requested information no later than March 31, 2023.

Brown takes aim at banking industry lobbying in wake of bank failures — Sen. Sherrod Brown, D-Ohio, the chairman of the Senate Banking Committee, struck a critical tone of the banking industry's lobbying during comments at the American Bankers Association's Washington Summit. Following the failures of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank, Brown said that he's not "ruling out" legislative action, but that most of the changes to bank regulation in the short term will likely come from regulators, most notably the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp., and the Federal Reserve. "My job here is oversight," Brown said. Brown noted Silicon Valley Bank CEO Gregory Becker's past comments to Congress as it considered some changes to Dodd-Frank, particularly around the regulation of midsize banks. Brown said that the executive told Congress that the bank had a low risk profile. Some Democratic lawmakers have called for rolling back S. 2155, a 2018 law that allowed regulators to loosen some oversight of midsize banks. "SVB spent hundreds and thousands of dollars pushing for exemptions for banks like theirs," Brown told the room full of bankers. "I know many of you think that critique is unfair. Many of you get unfairly targeted because big banks screw up."Brown put out a call for the bankers to let Congress and regulators develop rules around midsize banks, and to hold off lobbying for weaker regulation. "Please don't use this crisis to come and lobby Congress to weaken standards," Brown said. "I think we continue to pay the price when that happens."

Brown to introduce bill on compensation of failed bank executives — Senate Banking Committee Chairman Sherrod Brown, D-Ohio, is planning to introduce legislation related to corporate governance and executive accountability, his office said. Brown, according to his office, supports President Joe Biden's priorities for executive compensation and penalties for executives at failed banks. Biden last week outlined a series of proposals that would give the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. more power to claw back executive compensation and to punish executives responsible for bank failures. He asked Congress to strengthen the FDIC's authority to claw back compensation — including from stock sales — from the executives of failed banks of a similar size to Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank. Currently, the FDIC has that ability under the Dodd-Frank Act's special resolution authority, which applies only to the largest financial institutions. Biden's proposal would also expand the FDIC's authority to prevent executives from holding jobs in the banking industry after their bank fails. The FDIC now has the ability to bar executives from holding jobs at other banks only if they engage in "willful or continuing disregard for the safety and soundness" of the institution. Executive compensation is just one front that Washington policymakers are considering responding to the banking panic caused by the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank earlier this month. Lawmakers are also weighing changing the limits of deposit insurance, and toughening oversight rules on mid-sized institutions, and although it remains unlikely that Republicans and Democrats will come to any kind of meaningful agreement on bank regulation reform in the current divided Congress, the debates lawmakers are having now could set the stage for future successful legislation.

Bank failures breathe new life into executive compensation rule — President Biden urged Congress last week to enact tougher punishments for executives of failed banks, but achieving legislative consensus among congressional conservatives and liberals on whether to take action or how far to go is a long shot. But policy observers say there's another route for regulators to bypass Congress, if they want to take it. A lingering and incomplete section of Dodd-Frank — Section 956 — was meant to curb compensation plans that encourage bankers and other finance executives from taking excessive and reckless risks. Congress required the agencies to finalize the rule by May 2011, but while a rule was proposed in 2016, it remains incomplete. "People really just stopped asking about it," said Michele Alt, a partner at Klaros Group and former lawyer at the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, where she led several Dodd-Frank rulemakings for the agency, including the executive compensation piece. "It became a distant memory and just left quietly." Biden didn't reference the unfinished rule when he pushed for Congress to grant the FDIC more powers to punish the executives of failed institutions. As a central piece of that speech, he asked Congress to strengthen the FDIC's authority to claw back compensation — including from stock sales — from the executives of failed banks of a similar size to Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank. In a rare point of bipartisan agreement in Congress, both House Financial Services Committee Chairman Patrick McHenry, R-N.C., and Rep. Maxine Waters of California, the panel's ranking Democrat, have suggested that regulators should be doing more with existing laws to deal with executive compensation. McHenry hasn't ruled out the idea of strengthened executive compensation rules, whereas he's been more negative on other Democratic-led policy responses to the bank failures, such as expanding deposit insurance and strengthening rules around midsize bank regulation.

Republicans sharply question Treasury, FDIC on failed banks -Senior Republican members of the House Financial Services Committee sent a lengthy list of questions to the Treasury Department and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. on the decision to declare a systemic risk exception for the failures of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank, and the events that followed. House Financial Services Committee Chairman Patrick McHenry, R-N.C., and Rep. French Hill, R-Ark., wrote to Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and FDIC Chairman Martin Gruenberg about the circumstances leading up to and following the systemic risk determination. Federal regulators granted the systemic risk determination last Sunday, which guaranteed all the uninsured deposits at Signature Bank and Silicon Valley Bank. In the letter to Yellen, the lawmakers questioned the agency's rationale for the federal regulators' moves. "As part of its notification, section 13 requires the Treasury Secretary to include a description of the basis for making a systemic risk determination," the representatives wrote. They added that "the basis for your determinations remains unclear." The letter notes that before the weekend when Signature failed, it appeared that Silicon Valley Bank's takeover was a one-off event, prompted by poor interest rate risk management and a glut of uninsured deposits. However, the letter suggests, something caused regulators to believe that the failure of that bank, plus Signature Bank, would pose a risk to the broader economy. Silicon Valley Bank failed during the day on Friday, March 10, and Signature was taken over by regulators on Sunday, March 12. "On March 10, 2023, Silicon Valley Bank (SVB)'s failure was described as an idiosyncratic event," McHenry and Hill said in the letter. "Yet, on March 12 the decision was made to invoke the systemic risk exception. Please explain the change in circumstances between March 10th and March 12th that led to the conclusion that a least cost resolution would have serious adverse effects on economic conditions or financial stability?" In a separate letter to Gruenberg, McHenry and Hill asked questions related to the auction process for Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank. While the FDIC found a buyer for most of Signature Valley Bank, minus its digital assets business, Silicon Valley Bank remains unsold.

Senate Republicans probe Fed over Silicon Valley Bank oversight -- Republicans on the Senate Banking Committee are probing the Federal Reserve for more information about its supervision of Silicon Valley Bank in the months and years leading up to its failure.Sen. Tim Scott, R-S.C., the ranking member on the committee, sent a letter to Fed Chair Jerome Powell and Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President Mary Daly on Thursday requesting a long list of information about the bank, including materials typically deemed confidential supervisory information. In the letter, Scott argues that clear signs of risk within the Santa Clara, California-based bank went unchecked, including its over-reliance on uninsured deposits, its failure to manage interest rate risk and its concentration on a single industry — venture capital-backed tech and biotech startups. In light of this, he said, it was apparent that Fed supervisors "neglected to intervene in a meaningful, appropriate way to rectify the bank's deficiencies.""We are deeply concerned by the recent demise of SVB — the second largest bank failure in U.S. history — and the actions undertaken by both SVB management and the Federal Reserve leading up to SVB's collapse," Scott wrote. "From publicly available information, it is now well understood that SVB suffered from rampant mismanagement, ultimately resulting in its catastrophic failure."All 11 Republicans on the committee co-signed the letter. A spokesperson for the Board of Governors confirmed receipt of the letter and said the Fed planned to respond. While the Republicans on the committee, by virtue of being the minority party, cannot call hearings about the matter or issue subpoenas, the missive further outlines the party's stance that the matter was a singular failure of management by the bank and its regulators.

Regulators to appear in Senate Banking hearing — The Senate Banking Committee will host a hearing on the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank next Tuesday, which will be the first time federal regulators have answered questions publicly on the collapse of the two banks and the regulatory response. The panel will hear from Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. Chairman Martin Gruenberg, Under Secretary for Domestic Finance at the Treasury Department Nellie Liang and Federal Reserve Vice Chair of Supervision Michael Barr. The regulators will also testify a day later ina hearing with identical witnesses at the House Financial Services Committee. "My job is oversight, and we need to begin these hearings to understand these bank failures and next steps to make sure this never happens again," said Senate Banking Committee Chair Sherrod Brown, D-Ohio.While a number of lawmakers have called for changes to deposit insurance and tougher legislation around midsize banks, it's likely that in a divided Congress, there's still little legislation that could make it to President Joe Biden's desk. Brown has urged a review of the two banks' collapses, but has stopped short of explicitly calling for any specific policy changes. Other Democratic lawmakers have floated expanding deposit insurance, or rolling back a 2018 deregulatory effort led by Sen. Mike Crapo, R-Idaho, the then Senate Banking Committee chairman. Republicans have mostly rejected calls to toughen bank regulation, arguing that it's mostly been a failure of supervision, rather than lax regulation, that caused the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank.Sen. Steve Daines, R-Mont., for example, told a group of assembled bankers at the American Bankers Association Washington Summit on Tuesday thatS. 2155 — a law that has come under scrutiny for allowing regulators to loosen rules around midsize banks — wasn't to blame for the failure at Silicon Valley Bank, and that more regulation isn't warranted. Instead, Republicans are increasingly blaming the Fed and its supervisory practices for missing red flags at Silicon Valley Bank.

FDIC buys more time to unload Silicon Valley Bank, plans breakup — The Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. says it will give potential suitors more time to bid for Silicon Valley Bank and will break up the bank, the latest steps in a protracted effort to find a buyer for one of the institutions at the heart of the recent banking panic. The FDIC said that it will allow parties to submit separate bids for Silicon Valley Bridge Bank N.A. and its subsidiary Silicon Valley Private Bank. Nonbank firms, as well as banks, will be allowed to bid on the asset portfolios of either institution. Qualified, insured banks can submit whole-bank bids on the deposits or assets. The FDIC said that there's been "substantial interest" from multiple parties, and that the bidders "need more time to explore all options in order to maximize value and achieve an optimal outcome." The agency is in a tough spot to find a buyer for the second largest failed bank in U.S. history, as the list of prospective institutions is low since Silicon Valley Bank is too large for most banks to absorb. Lingering bad memories of arranged acquisitions during the 2008 financial crisis are said to have discouraged bidders, also. Still, the FDIC on Sunday evening said that Flagstar Bank, a subsidiary of New York Community Bancorp, would buy substantially all the deposits and certain loan portfolios of Signature Bank,, which collapsed shortly after Silicon Valley Bank. That deal excludes Signature's digital-assets business; the FDIC will pay out deposits to customers of that unit directly. The digital-assets business includes — but is not necessarily limited to — Signature's crypto-business lines.

First Citizens is said to continue pursuit of Silicon Valley Bank --First Citizens BancShares, one of the biggest buyers of failed U.S. lenders, is still hoping to strike a deal for all of Silicon Valley Bank, according to people familiar with the matter. The Raleigh, North Carolina, lender submitted an offer on Sunday to buy all of the failed SVB, the people said. It may also participate in the auctions this week for the two parts of company, said one of the people, who asked to not be identified because the matter isn't public. Shares of First Citizens, after falling 33% this year, jumped as much as 13% on Monday. They were up 9.6% to $557.73 at 3:09 p.m. Monday in New York trading, giving the company a market value of $8.1 billion. The stock finished Monday at $562.34. The Federal Deposit Insurance Corp., which seized SVB this month and has been trying to unload it for the past two weeks, said Monday it would extend the bidding process through Friday after getting "substantial interest" from multiple potential buyers. The FDIC will allow parties to submit separate offers for Silicon Valley Bridge Bank NA and its Silicon Valley Private Bank subsidiary, the regulator said. There's no certainty First Citizens or another bidder will reach a deal. "It is First Citizens Bank's policy not to comment on market rumors or speculation," a representative for the bank said in a statement. "First Citizens has a 125-year history of being a strong and stable bank, with a laser focus on doing what is best for our customers, employees and shareholders." First Citizens previously submitted a bid for SVB immediately after it collapsed and was active in the data room the FDIC set up last weekend for another sale process, people familiar with the matter have said.

Deal to put ex-Wells Fargo executive behind bars sends tough message -For six years, federal prosecutors investigated the Wells Fargo phony-accounts scandal amid a drumbeat of criticism. No big-bank executives went to prison following the 2008 financial crisis, and it didn't appear that pattern would change anytime soon.But last week, the U.S. Attorney's Office in Los Angeles made an unexpected announcement. Carrie Tolstedt, Wells Fargo's longtime former head of retail banking, agreed to plead guilty to a single felony charge of obstructing a bank examination. The deal calls for a 16-month prison term.The plea agreement was a victory for Attorney General Merrick Garland and Deputy Attorney General Lisa Monaco, who have emphasized the principle of individual accountability in corporate enforcement cases. It was also a win for bank regulators, signaling to industry executives that there can be severe consequences for misleading bank regulators."This is a stern, stern warning to every senior bank person who could be producing material that the examiners eventually rely on," said a former Wells Fargo executive who spoke on condition of anonymity.The criminal case against Tolstedt is part of a coordinated set of actions by multiple federal agencies in response to the fake-accounts scandal.The Office of the Comptroller of the Currency announced last week that Tolstedt agreed to pay a $17 million fine and accepted a ban from the banking industry in order to resolve civil charges. And the Securities and Exchange Commission said that it has reached a tentative settlement with Tolstedt on separate civil charges."The case filed by the Justice Department — as well as the related administrative action by the OCC and the pending civil lawsuit by the SEC — should put bank executives on notice that obstruction and fraudulent conduct very well may result in a criminal prosecution," Thom Mrozek, a spokesperson for the U.S. Attorney's Office in Los Angeles, said in an email.When asked why the case has taken six years to investigate, Mrozek said: "This was an extremely complex investigation, and the plea agreement is the result of extensive negotiations between the parties." Tolstedt, who left Wells Fargo in 2016, is scheduled to make her initial appearance in federal court in Los Angeles on April 7. The plea agreement has yet to be approved by U.S. District Judge Josephine Staton. She could impose a sentence that is either shorter or longer than the agreed-upon 16 months, though in the latter scenario Tolstedt could withdraw from the plea agreement, according to Mrozek. The federal sentencing guidelines call for a range of 10-16 months behind bars.

Morgan Stanley Allegedly Organizing Saudi, UAE Investors To Plow Billions In Musk's SpaceX -- Morgan Stanley is said to be coordinating a group that includes a unit of Saudi Arabia's investment fund and a company based in Abu Dhabi to invest billions of dollars in a funding round for SpaceX, the private space company owned by Elon Musk, The Information reported on Wednesday, citing people familiar with the matter."Representatives of SpaceX and Morgan Stanley, which is organizing the ongoing funding effort, have told investors that Badeel—Saudi Arabia's Water and Electricity Holding Company, which is part of the country's Public Investment Fund—along with the United Arab Emirates' Alpha Dhabi are both involved in the round," the people said. The funding round could value SpaceX at approximately $140 billion, positioning it as one of the world's most highly valued privately-owned companies. Space Capital, a venture capital firm, reports that SpaceX secured $2 billion in funding in 2022 and an additional $2.6 billion in 2020. The people noted that the precise amount for this multibillion-dollar funding round had not been disclosed.

Fed: management, poor business model contributed to Custodia rejection - The Federal Reserve said Custodia Bank has insufficient management experience, a non-viable business model and an over-reliance on the "speculation and sentiment"-driven crypto sector, and those factors contributed to its decision to deny the digital asset bank's application to join the Fed system.The Fed released the full 86-page order — albeit with some redactions — on Friday afternoon, explaining why the Cheyenne, Wyo.-based depository presented a safety and soundness risk too great to be permitted into the traditional banking system. It first announced the rejection nearly two months ago.Among the litany of concerns outlined in the rejection summary were Custodia's lack of federal deposit insurance, its liquidity risk management practices and its failure — in the eyes of the Fed — to meet necessary standards for implementing anti-money laundering and Bank Secrecy Act requirements. The Fed expressed skepticism that the resolution requirements under Wyoming's Special Purpose Depository Institutions were as robust as what is required by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. Wyoming is the first — and, so far, only — state with a licensing regime for digital asset banks.The Fed's order also detailed its many concerns with the digital asset sector, which it described as being not only volatile and highly interconnected, but also a hotbed for fraud, theft, money laundering and illicit finance. It described cryptocurrencies as being "not anchored to a clear economic use case."In a response statement issued on Friday afternoon, Custodia spokesman Nathan Miller pushed back against many of the facts cited in the Fed's decision. He also suggested that, had Custodia been permitted to serve as a regulated bridge between the crypto space and traditional financial markets, recent turmoil in the banking sector could have been avoided."The recently released Fed order is the result of numerous procedural abnormalities, factual inaccuracies that the Fed refused to correct, and general bias against digital assets," Miller said. "Rather than choosing to work with a bank utilizing a low-risk, fully-reserved business model, the Fed instead demonstrated its shortsightedness and inability to adapt to changing markets. Perhaps more attention to areas of real risk would have prevented the bank closures that Custodia was created to avoid."

Office of Financial Research reports central bank digital currency could hurt banking-sector stability but benefits consumers — A working paper published Wednesday by the Treasury Department's Office of Financial Research highlighted the benefits of a central bank digital currency for consumers but noted that such an innovation would present "financial frictions" for the banking sector. The study models and observes a theoretical financial system where both bank deposits and digital currencies are integrated into and widely used in the financial system. The report concluded that the adoption of digital currencies may spell a tug-of-war between bank business interests and financial and household stability. "Financial system volatility decreases when digital currencies are fully integrated, and household welfare improves, yet banking-sector stability suffers," the report found. Under the report's modeling framework, with increased take-up of central bank digital currency, or CBDC, bank deposit spreads shrank, rendering banks less profitable and making banking-sector crises more likely. "Lower deposit spreads limit banks' ability to recapitalize following losses," the report found. "In addition, because banks are less able to rebuild equity after adverse shocks, banks, on average, have lower equity. Accordingly, bank valuations decrease significantly. As a result, the probability the banking sector is in crisis or a distressed state can grow significantly." By contrast, households — and the broader financial system — would see potential benefits despite the increased likelihood of banking crises. "Household welfare could increase by 2% in terms of consumption, even though at this level of digital currency, the probability of crises doubles," the OFR report found.

'Crypto FUD' — Industry outraged as White House report slams crypto - Crypto executives have expressed irritation over the latest White House economic report — which notably features an entire chapter dedicated to casting doubts on the merit of digital assets.The Economic Report of the President, released on March 20, marks the first time the White House has included a section on digital assets since it first began issuing the annual economic policy report in 1950.The co-founder of digital asset investment firm Paradigm, Fred Ehrsam, remarked that 15% of the Economic Report was dedicated to “crypto FUD.” The report includes 35 pages dedicated to debunking the “Perceived Appeal of Crypto Assets,” along with a short section on the FedNow payment system and central bank digital currencies.The report’s main argument is that crypto assets fail to deliver on their “touted” benefits, such as improving payment systems, financial inclusion and creating mechanisms to transfer value and intellectual property, stating:“Instead, their innovation has been mostly about creating artificial scarcity in order to support crypto assets’ prices — and many of them have no fundamental value.”It also argues that cryptocurrencies fail to perform the functions of sovereign money — such as the U.S. dollar — as crypto prices fluctuate too wildly to be a stable store of value, nor can they function as a unit of account or medium of exchange. Excerpt from Chapter 8: Digital Assets: Relearning Economic Principles Source: Economic Report of the President The report also takes aim at stablecoins, arguing they are subject to run risks and thus too risky to satisfy their role as a “fast payment” instrument.Blockchain Association CEO Kristin Smith called the latest presidential report “disappointing,” saying it shows that some in the government appear “increasingly allergic” to the burgeoning crypto industry, adding: “We urge the Biden administration to consider how it will be remembered: as a leader of profound innovation or a roadblock to a global tech revolution.”Decentralization is also highlighted in the report, which argues that “despite claims of being decentralized and trustless, blockchain-based applications are in practice neither.”Users access crypto assets by going to a limited set of crypto asset platforms, while a small group of miners performs the majority of mining in most crypto assets, it argues.The latest annual economic policy report was published some two weeks after the collapses of Silvergate, Silicon Valley and Signature banks — all three of which had served aspects of the crypto industry. Dan Reecer, chief growth officer at decentralized finance platform Acala Network, claims that the report comes “just days” after Operation Chokepoint 2.0 was executed on crypto-friendly banks.

Coinbase Tumbles After-Hours On Wells Notice Disclosure - Coinbase shares are tumbling after-hours, down almost 20% on the day, following its disclosure that it received a notice from the SEC formally declaring the securities regulator’s plans to bring an enforcement action against the largest US crypto exchange. SEC Chair Gary Gensler has repeatedly said many of the tokens and products offered by crypto companies are securities and that the trading platforms need to register with his agency, and in a filing this afternoon, Coinbase said the so-called Wells notice regards aspects of its exchange as well as the staking service Coinbase Earn and Coinbase Wallet.Bloomberg reports that representatives from Coinbase have met with the SEC more than 60 times over the last nine months to try to resolve the issues, but those talks haven’t been fruitful, according to a person familiar with the matter.“We are prepared for this disappointing outcome and confident in the legality of our assets and services,” Paul Grewal, chief legal officer of Coinbase, said in a statement. “If needed, we welcome a legal process to provide the clarity we have been advocating for and to demonstrate that the SEC simply has not been fair or reasonable when it comes to its engagement on digital assets.”This isn’t the first time Coinbase has received a Wells notice. The SEC warned the company in 2021 that it considered the company’s proposed “Lend” product, which would have allowed users to earn interest by lending out their crypto holdings, to be a security. The exchange later canceled the launch.

SEC Hits Lindsay Lohan, Jake Paul, Soulja Boy And Others With Crypto Fraud Charges -- The Securities and Exchange Commission on Wednesday unveiled fraud and unregistered securities charges against Tronix crypto founder and Grenadian diplomat Justin Sun, as well as separate charges against celebrity backers of his TRON and BitTorrent crypto assets - which included Soulja Boy, Lindsay Lohan and Jake Paul. SEC Chair Gary Gensler said that Sun convinced investors to buy TRX and BTT by "orchestrating a promotional campaign in which he and his celebrity promoters hid the fact that the celebrities were paid for their tweet."According to the charges, Sun engaged in fraud by manipulating the trading of both tokens, which created the appearance of legitimate trading volume when it did not exist. Meanwhile, the unregistered 'offer and sale' charges are similar to those filed against Genesis, Gemini and Do Kwon's Terraform Labs, CNBC reports."This case demonstrates again the high risk investors face when crypto asset securities are offered and sold without proper disclosure," Gensler continued.The celebrity backers promoted TRX and BTT on social media, and recruited others to join Tron-affiliated Discord and Telegram channels in what SEC enforcement chief Gurbir Grewal called part of an "age-old playbook to mislead and harm investors.""At the same time, Sun paid celebrities with millions of social media followers to tout the unregistered offerings, while specifically directing that they not disclose their compensation. This is the very conduct that the federal securities laws were designed to protect against regardless of the labels Sun and others used," Grewal continued.

Cash Pours Out Of ESG Funds, Led By $5 Billion In Outflows From ESGU - As the banking sector portends actual problems within the financial system, virtue signaling seems to be falling down the average asset manager's list of priorities...would could have guessed?At least that's what the action in ESGU appears to be showing. The fund, the iShares ESG Aware MSCI USA ETF, is one of the largest and most well known ways for portfolio managers to gain exposure to "ESG" investing via ETF. It looks as though it is first on the list of things to be thrown out the window as asset managers and retail investors scramble for liquidity. Bloomberg ETF expert Eric Balchunas has noted that the sector, and its most well known ETF, are experiencing significant outflows. Balchunas wrote last week that on Friday, the ESGU ETF "saw a record smashing $4b in outflows". That was followed by another $1 billion on Monday.He said he thought the outflows could wind up triggering additional outflows: "The bomb out of ESGU on Friday is a big blow to the ESG ETF Category in that it really adds to the ongoing reversal in flows, which tends to go hand in hand with narrative."

Senior Climate Activists Rally Across US to 'Stop Dirty Banks' -Thousands of seniors outraged at big banks for continuing to underwrite the expansion of coal, oil, and gas projects took to the streets in cities across the United States on Tuesday to demand that financial institutions "stop funding climate chaos."Held 24 hours after United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres—citing the latest report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change—called for an end to fossil fuel financing, the "Stop Dirty Banks" national day of action was organized by Third Act, an alliance of activists over the age of 60 co-founded by veteran campaigner Bill McKibben, and more than 50 other progressive advocacy groups.The first elderly-led mass climate demonstration in U.S. history, which featured more than 100 rallies around the country, aimed to pressure financial institutions to stop bankrolling the planet-heating pollution that scientists have linked to worsening extreme weather.Despite pledging to put themselves and their clients on a path to "net-zero" greenhouse gas emissions, the world's 60 largest private banksdumped $4.6 trillion into coal, oil, and gas projects from 2016 to 2021. Just four U.S. financial giants—JPMorgan Chase, Citi, Wells Fargo, and Bank of America—are responsible for a quarter of all fossil fuel financing identified since the Paris agreement entered into force."We must break the big banks' addiction to Big Oil."“Today is a major drive to take the cash out of carbon," McKibben said Tuesday in a statement. "We want JPMorgan Chase, Citi, Wells Fargo, and Bank of America to hear the voices of the older generation which has the money and structural power to face down their empty, weasel words on climate. We will not go to our graves quietly knowing that the financial institutions in our own communities continue to fund the climate crisis.""We're going to hit the streets and banks today in a wave of gray power," McKibben continued. "We will be colorful and noisy but our message is serious: We want the banks to move out of fossil fuels. The lives and livelihoods of our children and grandchildren depend on a drastic change and banks are the key to this."

Senior citizens block bank entrances in nationwide climate protest - When customers of America’s four largest banks visit their local branches on Tuesday, they might be greeted by an unfamiliar sight: activists in rocking chairs blocking the entrances. It’s part of a national campaign to pressure banks to stop financing fossil fuels and heed warnings from leading scientists about the need to rapidly phase out oil, gas and coal to avert the worst effects of climate change. The rocking chairs are the brainchild of Third Act, a group that seeks to engage Americans 60 and older — those in their “third act” of life — in environmental activism. But the demonstrations have drawn attendees of all ages in about 100 cities across 29 states, according to the 53 groups organizing the events. The protests add to the mounting environmental pressures on Wall Street from politicians of both parties. Liberal lawmakers have pleaded with large financial institutions to cut ties with the fossil fuel industry, while conservatives have attacked what they see as “woke” capitalism, a reference to companies that treat climate change as an economic risk. Caught in the middle are four banks — JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citibank and Wells Fargo — that rank as the world’s largest lenders to the fossil fuel industry, according to a report released last year by Rainforest Action Network and other environmental groups. Since the 2015 adoption of the Paris climate accord, the four firms together have provided more than $1 trillion in lending and underwriting to companies building new coal plants, natural gas pipelines and other fossil fuel infrastructure.“In certain ways, if we can get the banks to shift, that would probably have more global impact than getting Congress to shift,” said Bill McKibben, the author and climate activist who launched Third Act in 2021. “Washington doesn’t really run the world anymore. But Wall Street still kind of does.” In recent years, young people have dominated climate activism globally, with Swedish teenager Greta Thunberg organizing school strikes and the youth-led Sunrise Movement pushing Congress to pass last year’slandmark climate bill. But McKibben said baby boomers — defined as people born between 1946 and 1964 — have a moral responsibility to join the climate crusade. “If you’re 65 now, you’ve been on this planet for something like 80 percent of the carbon dioxide that’s ever been emitted,” he said. “There’s a debt to be paid, and there are ways to pay it.” Activists started planning the protests well before the March 10 failure of Silicon Valley Bank. But in its wake, consumers and businesses have poured tens of thousands of dollars into the coffers of the nation’s biggest banks because of their perceived safety, making the demonstrations more timely, organizers said.On Monday, a dire report by the world’s top climate scientists injected further urgency into the demonstrations. The report by the U.N. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change warned that nations must rapidly shift their economies away from fossil fuels to prevent the most catastrophic consequences of climate change, including several feet of sea level rise, the extinction of hundreds of species and the migration of millions of people from places where they can no longer survive.

Recession fears, CECL drive up loan-loss provision - Credit unions bracing for a potential recession combined with the long-awaited implementation of a new accounting standard has caused loan-loss provisions to skyrocket. Recently released data from the National Credit Union Administration showed the provision for loan and lease losses, or credit loss expense, rose by 337% year-over-year in the fourth quarter of 2022 to $5.3 billion. By comparison, the provision declined by 86% to $1.2 billion in 2021.. Preparation for possible deterioration in asset quality is understandable given multiple Federal Reserve interest rate hikes and many economists' recession predictions, said Peter Duffy, managing director for Piper Sandler. The recent failures of Silicon Valley Bank in California and Signature Bank in New York raised concerns about the financial system and amplified recession concerns. Credit unions are simply being prudent in the face of potential increases in delinquencies and charge-offs, he said. "Coming out of an extended period of very high asset quality and very low charge offs, it's logical the credit unions are taking these steps," Duffy said.

Second Circuit rules that CFPB's funding is constitutional -A federal appeals court ruled Thursday that the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau's funding is constitutional, adding another twist to a separate challenge to the agency's funding that the Supreme Court has agreed to hear.A three-judge panel of the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Second Circuit not only upheld a lower court's ruling in favor of the CFPB, but it also specifically rejected arguments madelast year by the Fifth Circuit Court of Appeals.The Fifth Circuit found that the CFPB's funding through the Federal Reserve Board — and not through annual congressional appropriations — violates the Constitution's separation of powers doctrine.The Supreme Court agreed in February to hear the Fifth Circuit case, which has led to speculation that all of the bureau's past actions and rules could be undone, or that Congress would have to fund the bureau through appropriations. The Supreme Court is expected to hear oral arguments in the highly anticipated case in October.The Fifth Circuit concluded that Congress ceded direct control over the CFPB's budget by insulating it from the annual appropriations process and instead funding it through the Federal Reserve, which it said constitutes "a double insulation from Congress's purse strings." The Fifth Circuit covers Texas, Louisiana and Mississippi.But the Second Circuit, which covers the states of New York, Connecticut and Vermont, said it "cannot find any support for the Fifth Circuit's conclusion in Supreme Court precedent." Instead, the Second Circuit said that Congress expressly authorized the bureau's funding and that no Supreme Court decision has ever suggested that any more needs to be done. The appeals court said the Constitution's appropriations clause "means simply that no money can be paid out of the Treasury unless it has been appropriated by an act of Congress."

CFPB orders Portfolio Recovery Associates to pay $24 million --Portfolio Recovery Associates, one of the largest debt collectors in the nation, has agreed to pay $12 million to consumers and a $12 million fine to the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau to resolve allegations of illegal collection practices. The CFPB settled a laundry list of accusations against the Norfolk, Va., company that had first been raised in a 2015 enforcement order, the agency said in a filing in the U.S. District Court for the Eastern District of Virginia on Thursday. Kevin Stevenson, chief executive of PRA Group, the parent company of Portfolio Recovery Associates, said in a news release that the firm didn't admit to any wrongdoing in agreeing to the settlement. "We continue to disagree with the CFPB's characterization of our conduct," Stevenson said, but "we are pleased to have this matter resolved and behind us, allowing us to return our full attention to our impactful work with consumers." The consumers who will be reimbursed represent less than 1% of the company's active accounts, and the settlement isn't expected to have a material impact on financial results, the release said. The settlement announced Thursday is in addition to one tied to the 2015 order. At that time, the CFPB had ordered Portfolio Recovery Associates to pay more than $27 million for filing collection lawsuits against tens of thousands of consumers based on false affidavits. The company had won court judgments and garnished consumers' wages despite having little evidence that consumers owed any debts. The CFPB said Portfolio Recovery had collected on unsubstantiated debt, misrepresented that it intended to prove debts if consumers contested them, and misrepresented that it had legally enforceable claims to debts outside of the applicable statutes of limitations. CFPB Director Rohit Chopra called the company a repeat violator.

West African bad actor impersonates financial advisors to steal millions -In an ongoing scheme, a West African threat actor is impersonating financial advisors and their regulator by creating lookalike websites and fake customer onboarding processes real enough to reel in wealthy clients. Along the way, the group is hurting the brands of impersonated advisors, their employers and social media influencers whose image and likeness fraudsters are using to promote the scams.Impersonating financial advisors is hardly a new idea, but this scheme has a few new wrinkles. For one, the threat actor is impersonating brokers as well as influencers on TikTok and Instagram to snare victims. For another, the perpetrators are well-organized enough to and able to quickly spin-up new impersonation websites. According to DomainTools, a cybersecurity company that provides threat intelligence data, another recent twist is that the yet unnamed threat actor behind the scheme has started impersonating the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority. FINRA is a self-regulatory organization that governs U.S. broker-dealers. In these schemes, the threat actor registers a domain name that includes, or in some cases exactly matches, the name of a real broker. The threat actor then builds a website at that domain that includes true information about the broker and uses actual images of them, but replaces their real contact information with email addresses, phone numbers and links that route the victim to the threat actor. DomainTools says the West African threat actor behind the scheme is using the domain finraglobal[.]org (which is currently active), email address admin@finraglobal[.]org and IP address 82.180.172[.]248. These are all indicators of compromise that banks and their technology vendors can look for in incoming network traffic and block to protect themselves from the threat.On BrokerCheck, FINRA's website for researching brokers' backgrounds, FINRA warns that fraudsters "may link to BrokerCheck from phishing and similar scam websites" and that each user should "make sure you know who you're dealing with when investing, and contact FINRA with any concerns."FINRA reported in February 2021 that it had observed an increase in cyber-related incidents, including those exactly mirroring the active campaign DomainTools reported earlier this year.

Federal Home Loan banks issued $304 billion to meet liquidity demands -The Federal Home Loan Bank System issued $304 billion in debt last week, double the amount of liquidity that banks have sought from the Federal Reserve's discount window and a new funding program. The $1.25 trillion-asset Home Loan Bank System has become the go-to source of cash for regional and community banks looking for liquidity. Last week, the Home Loan banks collectively issued $303.9 billion in discount notes and bonds to meet member demand and to maintain liquidity for the 11 regional banks themselves. The system was created during the Depression to fund home loans and is owned by its 6,500 members, including banks of all sizes, insurance companies and credit unions. The system's issuance dropped dramatically from $111.8 billion issued on Monday — the largest single day of issuance in the Home Loan banks' 90-year history — to $21.7 billion on Friday. The private cooperative of 11 regional banks, which is structured as a government-sponsored enterprise, issues bonds that are backed by an implied government guarantee. The total debt issued last week included $151 billion in longer-term bonds, $143 billion in notes that mature in less than a year and another $9.9 billion in discount note auctions. The Fed's Bank Term Funding Program is serving as a supplement to the central bank's discount window, its standard last-resort lending facility. Last week, banks received $152 billion through the Fed's discount window and $11.9 billion from the Bank Term Funding Program, according to the Fed. The Home Loan banks are designed to provide liquidity during market stress. Agency bonds are highly liquid and the system can issue a significant amount of bonds even when other financial institutions have lost access to liquidity. Thousands of financial institutions are using loans, in the form of advances, to manage both liquidity and interest rate risk.But the failures of two regional banks, Silicon Valley Bank in California and Signature Bank in New York, have renewed concerns that the system is influencing banks' borrowing strategies and could be taking on more risk. The Home Loan Bank System has a "super lien" priority ahead of other creditors and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. Banks also can borrow from the Home Loan banks without triggering a run on deposits because of the lag time in banks' reporting borrowings on call reports. Call report data filed on March 31 will not get publicly reported until early May.

Record $304 Billion In Weekly FHLB Debt Issuance Hints At Staggering Size Of US Bank Run --It's been almost two weeks since the shocking overnight collapse of Silicon Valley Bank, and yet amid growing speculation and demands for clarity on the size of the deposit flight from small banks, we still have no definitive quantified impact of the ongoing bank run. That's because as we explained last week, the Fed's H.8 statement - while providing granular consolidated data for both small and large banks - is about a week late: last Friday's latest edition covered the period for the week ending March 8, the day it all started when Silicon Valley Bank’s ill-fated after-the-close announcement of its AFS portfolio liquidation and intention to raise capital sent the stock into a tailspin and toppled numerous small bank dominoes. Which means we have to wait until this coming Friday at 4:15pm to see what depositors did with their money after the collapse of SVB and Signature, the associated deposit guarantees, and the market turmoil that followed and which JPMorgan estimated led to $550BN in deposit flight. Meanwhile, as of March 8, large banks saw a rather pedestrian $56 billion in (not seasonally adjusted) deposit flight for the week, while small banks deposits were virtually unchanged.Of course, as we first said last week, and as BBG echoes today, "just how many deposits fled small banks for the systemically-important competitors will go some way into shaping the market’s view of how enduring or systemic the pressure on small financial institutions will be moving forward."Meanwhile, the Fed's more timely H.4 release from last week confirmed that GSIBs saw a significant inflow of funds given the large increase in bank reserves in Fed regions hosting the headquarters of the money-center banks, offset by substantial outflows at small banks which piled into the Discount Window to fund liquidity shortfalls; in fact, as we observed last week, the Discount Window saw a record one-week surge of $152.8 BN...... which when coupled with "Other credit extensions" - which include various FDIC loans - saw the Fed's balance sheet soar by $300 billion, the biggest jump since April 2020 and erasing half of the Fed's QT balance sheet shrinkage.And while we wait for this Friday's H.8 update which will come too late to influence the Fed's Wednesday decision one way or another (where estimates are for anything from a 50bps hike to a -25bps cut), today we got another glimpse into the severity of the ongoing bank run when Bloomberg reported that the Federal Home Loan Bank System issued $304 billion in debt last week. That’s almost double the $165 billion that liquidity-starved lenders tapped from the Federal Reserve, and when combined is not too far off JPMorgan's estimate of $550 billion in deposit flight in the past week.The debt issued last week included notes, which mature in less than a year, and $151 billion in longer-term bonds. The bond issuance eclipsed the nearly $55 billion supplied for the entire month of February and roughly $130 billion for January. Drilling down, total debt issued for Monday was $112 billion, one of the biggest-ever days of financing for the FHLB system, according to the person familiar with the matter. The next day, the system issued $87 billion in notes and bonds.As a reminder, the FHLBs are a Depression-era backstop originally created to boost mortgage lending, and is now a key source of cash for regional banks, also known as the “lender of next-to-last resort” for those banks who refuse to use the Fed's primary emergency funding facility - the highly stigmatizing Discount Window. The role of FHLBs as a secondary backstop attracted scrutiny after the March 10 collapse of Silicon Valley Bank, which was the single biggest user of the Federal Home Loan Bank of San Francisco. SVB borrowed $15 billion in the fourth quarter of 2022, 17% of the San Francisco home loan bank’s lending. According to Bloomberg, as of the end of 2022, the 11 FHLBs in the US had $823 billion in outstanding loans, known as advances; the number is updated quarterly so those keeping tabs on FHLB advance usage need to focus on the funding side of their balance sheet.

BankThink: Liquidity or housing? Why can't the Home Loan banks support both? | American Banker -Kate Berry's March 7 article in American Banker on the Federal Housing Finance Agency's (FHFA) ongoing "System at 100" review of the Federal Home Loan Bank System poses the question, "Is the Home Loan banks' mission to boost liquidity or housing?" The answer is "Both." The system was created back in the 1930's to support the housing sector at a time when its major members, thrift institutions, were largely involved only in making mortgage loans. Borrowing funds from the newly established Home Loan banks obviously involved "raising liquidity" to fund mortgages. In those days, there was no such thing as "asset-liability management" and no financial institutions were required (or chose) to write down a "liquidity management policy." By the time commercial banks and credit unions were permitted to join the system in 1989, the management and boards of directors of depository institutions, with the encouragement of their respective regulatory agencies, all had a strong focus on asset-liability and liquidity management, guided by written, board-approved policies.Today, all depository institutions are required by their respective regulators to identify "contingent sources of liquidity" in their policies. These funds are expected to be available to address any shortfalls caused by what economists call "liquidity shocks." The sources of liquidity shocks are unanticipated declines in deposits or unexpected increases in loan demand. One method to address these liquidity shortfalls is to borrow the needed funds in the capital markets. But more than 90% of depository institutions lack access to the capital markets as a result of a so-called "market imperfection." Because of large fixed costs associated with issuing securities, intermediaries in the capital markets will only underwrite securities in large amounts. The classic assumption in economic analysis of free, unfettered access to markets consequently does not hold for small financial institutions facing the capital markets. But through the Federal Home Loan Bank System's Office of Finance, the Home Loan banks can borrow in the capital markets in large sums. Having accessed the market, the banks, in turn, can lend these funds to member institutions in smaller amounts. By acting as a classic financial intermediary, the Home Loan banks solve the market imperfection problem. Not surprisingly, almost all community-oriented institutions identify Home Loan bank borrowings (known as "advances") as a primary source of contingent liquidity in their policies. When the system was created over 90 years ago, the concept of "capital market imperfections" was as foreign to financial institution managers as asset-liability and liquidity management were. Since a small number of very large financial institutions can access the capital markets, it might be argued they should not be permitted to be members of the Home Loan Bank System. But these institutions were not excluded in the enabling legislation. Today, they are large users of advances and hence underwrite a substantial portion of the infrastructure costs of operating the system. Excluding these large institutions would consequently force consolidation in the system and substantially shrink both its assets and its earnings. The drop in earnings would yield a concomitant decline in the system's contribution to affordable housing. Some have suggested that the FHFA should seek to require the Home Loan banks to lend only to support housing-related lending. But tying advances to explicit funding of home finance will increase prospective liquidity risk in the banking system by short-circuiting access to advances for addressing liquidity shortfalls on the liability side of the balance sheet. Lenders would then be forced to decline requests for loans, including housing-related loans.

"Nowhere To Hide In CMBS": CRE Nuke Goes Off With Small Banks Accounting For 70% Of Commercial Real Estate Loans - Recently we warned that the office commercial real estate implosion is rapidly transforming into the Big Short 3.0 (see "Why Small Banks Are In Big Trouble: As Hedge Funds Pile Into The New "Big Short", The Next 'Credit Event' Emerges") one which would also have a devastating impact on small banks due to their outsized exposure to the sector (Goldman recently calculated that up to 80% of all CRE lending goes through small and medium (<$250BN) banks, more on this below). Now, it is JPMorgan's turn to freak out and as the bank writes in its weekly CMBS weekly note (available to pro subs), "what started as a spread widening episode in IG mezz in the week leading up to SVB’s collapse has infected AAA CMBS this past week regardless of format." Translation: what was a lingering and contained CRE issue until the recent small bank crisis, has spread across the entire CRE risk stack, and is now a ticking time bomb that threatens the solvency of the entire small bank sector, whose troubles so far have been limited to liquidity (i.e. deposit flight)

FHFA sets timeline for credit score and reporting changes -- The Federal Housing Finance Agency has released milestone dates for a process that wouldupdate consumer credit measures used in mortgage underwriting, make the use of various sources more competitive and potentially extend lending to more borrowers.The process, which is set to start next year, will be inclusive of mortgage companies and others affected by the updates so that some of their concerns about higher costs and other unintended consequences can be considered and addressed, according to the agency."Today's announcement highlights FHFA's commitment to stakeholder engagement as the enterprises implement the new credit score models and transition to a bi-merge reporting requirement," said Director Sandra Thompson. "Obtaining public input in a transparent manner and considering the feedback is critical to a successful transition."In the first quarter of 2024, the FHFA will change the process used by lenders selling loans to government-sponsored enterprises Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac from one based on three merged credit reports (from Equifax, Experian and TransUnion) to two.Next, it will transition Fannie and Freddie's underwriting away from reliance solely on FICO's classic credit score.Starting around the third quarter of next year, they will start delivering updated scores and associated disclosures, including an one from FICO known as 10T. The other one that was validated last October is VantageScore 4.0. VantageScore is a collaboration between the three credit bureaus.The second phase will then ideally follow in the fourth quarter of 2025. At that point, Fannie and Freddie will put the new scores into use not only for pricing mortgages they buy, but also for setting capital requirements and other processes.In addition to buying loans within certain parameters with the aim of furthering their affordable housing missions, the two GSEs are currently positioned as a backstop for the market and have been working to retain a certain amount of capital relative to the credit risks they take on in order to protect their financial stability.

MBA Survey: "Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Decreases to 0.60% in February" - From the MBA: Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Decreases to 0.60% in FebruaryThe Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) monthly Loan Monitoring Survey revealed that the total number of loans now in forbearance decreased by 4 basis points from 0.64% of servicers’ portfolio volume in the prior month to 0.60% as of February 28, 2023. According to MBA’s estimate, 300,000 homeowners are in forbearance plans. The share of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac loans in forbearance decreased 2 basis points to 0.28%. Ginnie Mae loans in forbearance decreased 9 basis points to 1.28%, and the forbearance share for portfolio loans and private-label securities (PLS) decreased 5 basis points to 0.78%. “The forbearance rate decreased for both independent mortgage bank and depository servicers across all investor types in February,” said Marina Walsh, CMB, MBA’s Vice President of Industry Analysis. “Even with the fewer days in the month – which often causes a drop in timely monthly payments – overall servicing portfolio performance declined only slightly to 95.8 percent, while performance of post-forbearance workouts stayed essentially flat at 76.0 percent.” Added Walsh, “The February results on mortgage performance is welcome news, given recent increases in delinquencies for other credit types such as credit cards and auto loans. However, with the possibility of a recession this year, we may see some deterioration in performance – particularly for government loans.” This graph shows the percent of portfolio in forbearance by investor type over time. The share of forbearance plans has been decreasing, declined to 0.60% in February from 0.64% in January. At the end of February, there were about 300,000 homeowners in forbearance plans.

Black Knight: Mortgage Delinquencies Increased Slightly in February - From Black Knight: Black Knight’s First Look at February 2023 Mortgage Data: Prepayments Rebound from All-Time Low; Overall Mortgage Delinquencies Inch Up As 30-Days Late Payments Rise -
• The national mortgage delinquency rate increased 7 basis points in February to 3.45%, but remains down 12.6% year over year
• Prepayment activity (SMM) inched up to 0.35% – breaking a four-month streak of record lows, with relief likely to extend as the spring homebuying season takes hold
• A 36K rise in overall delinquencies was driven by a nearly 65K increase in those just a single payment behind, while 60-day delinquencies fell by nearly 12K (-4.0%) and 90-day delinquencies fell by 17K (-3.0%)
• Foreclosure starts decreased by 9% in the month to 29K, breaking a streak of increases, with starts remaining 19% below pre-pandemic levels
• Active foreclosure inventory rose marginally (+2K) in the month, and is up 34K (+15%) from February 2022 despite remaining 15% below its pre-pandemic level
• February saw 7.1K foreclosure sales (completions) nationally, up 2.5% from the month prior
According to Black Knight's First Look report, the percent of loans delinquent increased 2.0% in February compared to January and decreased 13% year-over-year. Black Knight reported the U.S. mortgage delinquency rate (loans 30 or more days past due, but not in foreclosure) was 3.45% in February, up from 3.38% the previous month.The percent of loans in the foreclosure process increased slightly in February to 0.46%, from 0.45% the previous month. The number of delinquent properties, but not in foreclosure, is down 235,000 properties year-over-year, and the number of properties in the foreclosure process is up 34,000 properties year-over-year.

First House Price Index goes Negative Year-over-year -This is for asking prices of a "common" home. Haus released their weekly Common Haus Price Index (CHPI) today showing a 0.2% decrease in asking house prices year-over-year. From Common Haus Price Index (CHPI) at Haus: The weekly Common Haus Price Index: Each week, Haus releases the Common Haus Price Index (CHPI), a home price index of asking prices for the most common American home: a three-bed, two-bath, 1,500-square-foot home built in 1977 on a quarter-acre lot....Following a sharp increase in home prices during spring 2021, the cost of the most common home in America fell during June 2021, with prices holding steady into the beginning of 2022. For the week ending March 17, 2023, prices were up -0.2% year over year, and the price of the most common U.S. home was $352,497. As I mentioned this morning, it is possible that the NAR will report tomorrow that closing median prices were down year-over-year in February, although housing economist Tom Lawler expects the NAR to report prices up just over 1% in February.

NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.58 million SAAR in February; Median Prices Declined YoY - From the NAR: Existing-Home Sales Surged 14.5% in February, Ending 12-Month Streak of Declines: Existing-home sales reversed a 12-month slide in February, registering the largest monthly percentage increase since July 2020, according to the National Association of REALTORS®. Month-over-month sales rose in all four major U.S. regions. All regions posted year-over-year declines.Total existing-home sales, completed transactions that include single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops – vaulted 14.5% from January to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.58 million in February. Year-over-year, sales fell 22.6% (down from 5.92 million in February 2022)....Total housing inventory registered at the end of February was 980,000 units, identical to January and up 15.3% from one year ago (850,000). Unsold inventory sits at a 2.6-month supply at the current sales pace, down 10.3% from January but up from 1.7 months in February 2022.The sales rate was well above the consensus forecast, but close to housing economist Tom Lawler’s projection. Sales in February (4.58 million SAAR) were up 14.5% from the previous month and were 22.6% below the February 2022 sales rate.The second graph shows existing home sales by month for 2022 and 2023.Sales declined 22.6% year-over-year compared to February 2022. As the NAR noted, this broke a 12-month streak of month-to-month sales declines. However, this was the eighteenth consecutive month with sales down year-over-year.The third graph shows existing home sales for each month, Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA), for a few selected periods. Black and light Purple are the maximum sales per month during the bubble (2005) and the minimum sales during the bust (2008 - 2011). The most recent five years are shown (2019 through 2023).

New Home Sales Up for Third Straight Month - This morning's release of the February new home sales from the Census Bureau came in at 640K, up 1.1% month-over-month from a revised 633K in January. This is below the Investing.com forecast of 650K however it is the highest amount of monthly sales in the last 6 months. The median home price is now at $438,200, up $11.7K from January on a nominal basis. Here is the opening from the report: Sales of new single‐family houses in February 2023 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 640,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 1.1 percent (±15.3 percent)* above the revised January rate of 633,000, but is 19.0 percent (±12.9 percent) below the February 2022 estimate of 790,000. The median sales price of new houses sold in February 2023 was $438,200. The average sales price was $498,700. [Full Report] For a longer-term perspective, here is a snapshot of the data series, which is produced in conjunction with the Department of Housing and Urban Development. The data since January 1963 is available in the St. Louis Fed's FRED repository here. We've included a six-month moving average to highlight the trend in this highly volatile series.

New Home Sales at 640,000 Annual Rate in February - The Census Bureau reports New Home Sales in February were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 640 thousand.The Census Bureau reports New Home Sales in February were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 640 thousand. The previous three months were revised down. Sales of new single‐family houses in February 2023 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 640,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 1.1 percent above the revised January rate of 633,000, but is 19.0 percent below the February 2022 estimate of 790,000. The first graph shows New Home Sales vs. recessions since 1963. The dashed line is the current sales rate. New home sales are close to pre-pandemic levels. The second graph shows New Home Months of Supply. The months of supply decreased in February to 8.2 months from 8.3 months in January. The all-time record high was 12.2 months of supply in January 2009. The all-time record low was 3.3 months in August 2020. This is well above the top of the normal range (about 4 to 6 months of supply is normal). "The seasonally‐adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of February was 436,000. This represents a supply of 8.2 months at the current sales rate." Starting in 1973 the Census Bureau broke inventory down into three categories: Not Started, Under Construction, and Completed. The third graph shows the three categories of inventory starting in 1973. The inventory of completed homes for sale (red) - at 72 thousand - is more than double the record low of 32 thousand in 2021 and early 2022. This is getting close to the normal level of completed homes for sale and increasing. The inventory of homes under construction (blue) at 269 thousand is very high, and about 15% below the cycle peak in July 2022. The inventory of homes not started is at 95 thousand - below the record peak of 102 thousand. The fourth graph shows home sales for each month, Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA), for a few selected periods. Black is the maximum sales per month during the bubble (2005) and light gray is the minimum sales during the bust (2008 - 2011). The most recent five years are shown (2019 through 2023). The next graph shows new home sales for 2022 and 2023 by month (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate). Sales in February 2023 were down 19.0% from February 2022. The next graph shows the months of supply by stage of construction. “Months of supply” is inventory at each stage, divided by the sales rate. The median sales price of new houses sold in February 2023 was $438,200. The average sales price was $498,700. The following graph shows the median and average new home prices. The average price in February 2023 was $498,700 down 4.5% year-over-year. The median price was $438,200 up 2.5% year-over-year. This suggests a year-over-year decrease in prices, although both the median and the average are impacted by the mix of homes sold. The last graph shows the percent of new homes sold by price. About 12% of new homes sold were under $300K in February 2023. This is up from recent months, but down from around 80% in 2002. In general, the under $300K bracket is going away (inflation has pushed prices higher).

Belvidere Jeep factory shuts down in one casualty of EV transition - — Early last year, workers at a Jeep factory here hoped their plant would be converted to an electric vehicle facility as the auto industry revamps for a green-energy future. Engineers came to take measurements for a possible retooling, and rumors spread that electric sports cars were on the agenda.But those hopes crumbled last month when the corporate parent company, Stellantis, ended production at the 58-year-old plant and laid off roughly 1,200 workers, ripping the heart out of this small town 70 miles northwest of Chicago. The decision, now causing knock-on layoffs and lost business at local auto-parts suppliers, restaurants and shops, shows the dark side of the zero-emissions economy the Biden administration is championing with tens of billions of dollars of taxpayer-funded subsidies. Even as many communities will be transformed by the federally backed push to produce electric cars, batteries and solar panels, some will get left behind.

Kroger-Albertsons grocery chain merger in US threatens job cuts as Wall Street eyes payday - The proposed $25 billion merger of Kroger and Albertsons, two of the largest grocery store chains in the United States, threatens potentially thousands of jobs. The merger is still up for review by regulators and there are legal challenges against it, but should it be approved, it will be a boon for large investors and a bloodbath for workers. With a purchase of Albertsons, Kroger will take control of nearly 5,000 grocery store locations in 35 states around the country with more than 700,000 employees. Kroger’s argument in favor of the merger is that it will improve efficiency and lower prices, as well as enable chains of traditional grocery stores to compete with the rapid rise of Amazon as a major player in grocery sales. Amazon is predicted to reach more than $40 billion in grocery sales by 2024. But with an increase in “efficiency”—that is, profit margins—also comes an increase in redundancy. In many parts of the country, Kroger brands like King Soopers and Fry’s compete directly with Albertsons brands like Safeway and Vons. Kroger and Albertsons have said they will sell off several hundred stores to abide by antitrust legislation. These stores will most likely be ones in overlapping areas where the two chains have competing stores. Albertsons did the same thing with 150 stores when it bought rival grocery chain Safeway, divesting those stores into a spin-off chain called Haggen. After less than a year, every one of those stores went bankrupt and closed down. There are strong financial interests behind the sale of Albertsons that are driving the response to the proposed merger. Roughly 70 percent of Albertsons stock is owned by the investment firm Cerberus Capital Management. With a portfolio worth $60 billion, Cerberus is one of the largest financial firms in the United States with ties to major banks and industries around the world. Cerberus is a notorious corporate raider. One of its better-known ventures is its purchase of an 80 percent share in Chrysler from Daimler in 2007, which it later sold to Fiat after the Obama administration’s bailout of the industry, which was tied to massive cuts to wages Cerberus was co-founded by Steve Feinberg, a billionaire and close ally of Donald Trump whose financial support for the former president almost earned him a presidential appointment as a top intelligence official. Feinberg brought in Don Quayle, former vice president under George Bush Sr., as head of global operations, and John Snow, former secretary of the treasury under George Bush Jr., as chairman. This cast of former top government officials grants Cerberus close ties to top industry, finance and government sectors. Snow is a particularly well-connected member of Cerberus’ board, having served in the federal government with then-Labor Secretary Elaine Chao, who is the wife of Republican Senate Leader Mitch McConnell and a member of Kroger’s board of directors. He also was CEO of the railroad CSX during the 1980s and 1990s, where he implemented a policy of deferring the maintenance of railroad tracks, increasing profits but causing the rail lines to fall into disrepair. Cerberus has held a stake in Albertsons for 17 years and now controls 73 percent of Albertsons stock when it financed the purchase of Safeway with $9 billion. If Cerberus sells all of its shares in Albertsons, it would take nearly $19 billion from the sale.

Amazon Prepares To Fire Another 9,000 Workers --Bloomberg reported that Amazon sent an internal email notifying its employees about an upcoming wave of layoffs, which is part of the company's continuing strategy to reduce costs amid mounting macroeconomic uncertainty. Amazon CEO Andy Jassy reportedly told employees that an additional 9,000 people would be laid off in the coming weeks. Chief Executive Officer Andy Jassy announced the cuts internally Monday, saying they would occur in the coming weeks and primarily affect Amazon Web Services, human resources, advertising and the Twitch livestreaming service groups. --Bloomberg The world's largest e-commerce company is grappling with sliding online sales growth and bracing for a possible recession. In mid-January, Amazon notified employees about reducing its headcount by 18,000 workers worldwide -- the largest round of jobs cuts in the company's history. It appears the company has massively overhired in the last several years -- just like most tech companies.

A surprising (and growing) gender gap in the most dangerous jobs - By almost every measure, the American workplace is getting safer. But one troubling type of injury is on the rise: violent attacks that cause injuries so severe that the victim misses a day of work. And the increase has come almost entirely in attacks against women.That’s a deadly serious finding, and one we did not expect. After all, our analysis began with the intriguing discovery that the Survey of Occupational Injuries and Illnesses includes a category called “self-tasered — unintentional.”This database of workplace injuries is incredibly detailed, offering a concise but wide-ranging portrait of tragedy and mishap in the American workplace. It tells us how often workers are strangled by another person and how often they are caught in running machinery. It dutifully logs injuries caused by horseplay (which, the government helpfully notes, includes “roughhousing”) and walking (without other incident), alongside injuries to people who accidentally Taser themselves (a risk presumably encountered by a limited subset of workers).When we dove into the database, which is powered by an annual survey of 230,000 employers conducted by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the good news immediately rose to the top: We’re getting hurt less at work.But the deeper we dug, the more distressed we became. The drop in workplace injuries occurred primarily in the largest categories: Overexertion injuries including those caused by heavy lifting. Repetitive-stress injuries. Slips and falls. Contact injuries, which typically involve getting hit by something, like a piece of equipment. Another major category, injuries caused by people or animals, remained flat. Or at least that’s how it first appeared. In fact, that flat line concealed two diverging trends: A sharp decline in people accidentally injuring each other. And a huge increase in injuries caused by intentional workplace attacks.The number of intentional human-caused injuries just keeps rising. Every year, more and more Americans are hit, kicked, beaten or shoved so badly that the victim misses at least a day of work. (The number of injuries fell in 2020 when many of us were social distancing and working from home, but the broader trend is ominous.)To understand who is being attacked, we analyzed the largest category — hitting, kicking, beating, shoving — by gender. The gap was alarming. Not only are women far more likely to be attacked and injured so badly that they miss work, but almost all the past decade’s increase in hitting, kicking, beating and shoving in the workplace has been targeted at women.

Starbucks Baristas Strike, "Demand End To Illegal Union-Busting Campaign" - Starbucks Workers United, representing thousands of baristas, tweeted early Wednesday morning that more than 100 Starbucks stores "are striking to demand an end to Starbucks' illegal union-busting campaign." BREAKING: Workers at over 100+ Starbucks stores across the country are striking to demand an end to Starbucks' illegal union-busting campaign. While the company keeps a metaphorical 'empty chair' for us in the boardroom, we're demanding a real seat at the table! #StarbucksStrike— Starbucks Workers United (@SBWorkersUnited) March 22, 2023Bloomberg reported that the work stoppage involves stores in more than 40 US cities. The union has said Starbucks' anti-union campaign against it violates the company's own commitment to respect its employees' rights. The fight between the union and Starbucks has intensified, with both parties alleging that the other is not bargaining in good faith.The union represents about 3% of the coffee chain's 9,300 US stores, though the unionization movement is expanding. Bloomberg added:The work stoppage comes one day before Starbucks's annual shareholder meeting, the first for new CEO Laxman Narasimhan, who officially took the reins from Howard Schultz this week. Investors including New York City pension funds have put forward a resolution this year urging the company to conduct a labor-rights audit, and Schultz is slated to be grilled by lawmakers at a US Senate committee hearing next week. The union posted images of unionized baristas striking on Wednesday morning:

In victory for labor unions, Michigan governor repeals 'right-to-work' law (Reuters) - Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer on Friday signed a package of bills repealing the state's so-called "right to work" law that allowed workers to opt out of unions, a long-sought victory for labor organizers facing an era of diminished power. Whitmer became the first governor since the 1960s to roll back right-to-work legislation. Twenty-six other U.S. states and the territory of Guam still have right-to-work laws on the books, according to the National Conference of State Legislatures. "Michigan workers are the most talented and hard-working in the world and deserve to be treated with dignity and respect," Whitmer, a two-term Democrat, said in a statement. Michigan House Bills 4004 and 4007 and Senate Bill 34 passed the Democratic-controlled state legislature earlier this month. House Bill 4007 requires that contractors hired by the state pay a so-called prevailing wage, the amount used when hiring union workers.

Los Angeles County Commission report confirms that deputy gangs rampant in Sheriff’s Department --On March 3, a special counsel charged with oversight of the Los Angeles Sheriff’s Department (LASD) issued a report that documents deputy gangs engaging in “egregious conduct such as violations of law, the excessive use of force [and] threats to the public or Department members.” According to the special counsel, deputy gangs operating over the last 50 years in patrol stations located in predominantly working class and minority neighborhoods, including the Banditos, Executioners, Regulators, Spartans, Grim Reapers, Rattlesnakes and Vikings, recruit male deputy sheriffs based on their ethnicity and willingness to engage in violence and coverups.The report states that among the 80 or so people interviewed, “several witnesses would only testify anonymously and some did so remotely, using a voice distortion device out of fear of physical or professional retaliation. Several witnesses who had agreed to testify withdrew, often the night before the proposed testimony, out of similar fears.” The report accuses prior Sheriff Alex Villanueva, who lost reelection last November, of “appointing known tattooed members of Deputy Gangs and Deputy Cliques to leadership positions in the Department” and “permitting the revival of emblems signifying membership in such groups.” The Rand Corporation reports that 15 to 20 percent of LASD deputies join gangs. Membership is usually confirmed by a leg tattoo, frequently bearing a sequential roman numeral. “Inking parties” are held to initiate new members at the gang’s chosen tattoo parlor after a deputy-involved shooting or other act of brutality. Deputies have been observed using language, gestures and even graffiti associated with the street gangs they are supposedly policing, while aggressively targeting co-workers they deem “rats.”

A sex trafficking case, a plea deal and a mother's pain | AP -- Irma Reyes wanted to look confident — poised but hellbent. The outfit was meant to let Texas prosecutors know just what kind of formidable mother they’d be crossing that morning. Weeks earlier, Reyes learned about the plea deal. State lawyers planned to let the two men charged with sex trafficking her daughter walk free. She’d barely been able to eat or brush her teeth since, her mind racing: Why are they doing this? Can I get the judge to stop it? Don’t they know my daughter matters?Reyes’ daughter was 16 in 2017, when men she knew only as “Rocky” and “Blue” kept her and another girl at a San Antonio motel where men paid to have sex with them. Now, the cases against Rakim Sharkey and Elijah Teel — the men police identified as the traffickers — have seen years of delay, a parade of prosecutors, an aborted trial and, ultimately, a stark retreat by the government. They are among thousands of cases under a cloud of dysfunction at the office of Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, who has risen to national prominence fighting court battles that affect people nationwide even while facing legal troubles including a criminal investigation by Justice Department officials. Trafficking cases in particular have cast doubt on how the agency uses millions of state tax dollars on an issue that Republican leaders trumpet as a priority while attacking Democrats’ approach to border security. For Reyes, her daughter, and other victims and families, the politics take a backseat to their pain. To them, the plea deal is a case study in how the agency’s troubles are undercutting justice for vulnerable victims. A spokeswoman for the attorney general’s office, Kristen House, declined to answer questions about the deal, the actions of prosecutors, and other details of the case involving Reyes’ daughter. “It’s like a nightmare that I can’t wake up from,” Reyes told The Associated Press.

Minnesota Becomes 4th State to Provide Free School Meals to All Kids - Surrounded by students, teachers, and advocates, Democratic Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz on Friday afternoon signed into law a bill to provide breakfast and lunch at no cost to all of the state’s roughly 820,000 K-12 pupils regardless of their household income.The move to make Minnesota the fourth U.S. state to guarantee universal free school meals—joining California, Maine, and Colorado—elicited praise from progressives.“Beautiful,” tweeted Stephanie Kelton, a professor of economics and public policy at Stony Brook University.UC-Berkeley professor and former U.S. labor secretary Robert Reich wrote on social media: “Let this serve as a reminder that poverty is a policy choice. In the richest country in the world, it is absolutely inexcusable that millions of our children go to school hungry because they are living in poverty.”An estimated 1 in 6 children in Minnesota don’t get enough to eat on a regular basis. But 1 in 4 food-insecure kids live in households that don’t qualify for the federal free and reduced meal program, leading to “mounting school lunch debts in the tens of thousands of dollars,” Minnesota Public Radio reported.Tens of thousands of children are set to benefit from Minnesota’s new law, which could be operational as early as summer school in July. Some of them were there to thank Walz at the signing ceremony, where the sense of elation was palpable.“As a former teacher, I know that providing free breakfast and lunch for our students is one of the best investments we can make to lower costs, support Minnesota’s working families, and care for our young learners and the future of our state,” Walz said. “This bill puts us one step closer to making Minnesota the best state for kids to grow up, and I am grateful to all of the legislators and advocates for making it happen.”The Minnesota House—led by the Democratic-Farmer-Labor (DFL) Party, the state’s Democratic affiliate—first passed the bill in February in a 70-58 party-line vote. The state Senate—where the DFL holds just a single-seat advantage—approved it on Tuesday by a 38-26 margin. The state House rubber-stamped an amended version of the bill on Thursday. In a now-viral clip from the state Senate’s debate over the bill earlier this week. Sen. Steve Drazkowski (R-20) questioned whether hunger is really a problem in Minnesota—even as the state’s food banks reported a record surge in visits last year, months before federal lawmakersslashed pandemic-era Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) benefits.“I have yet to meet a person in Minnesota that is hungry,” Drazkowski said before voting against the bill. “I have yet to meet a person in Minnesota that says they don’t have access to enough food to eat.”

Kids in Utah will need parents’ OK to access social media | AP News— Children and teens in Utah would lose access to social media apps such as TikTok if they don’t have parental consent and face other restrictions under a first-in-the-nation law designed to shield young people from the addictive platforms. Two laws signed by Republican Gov. Spencer Cox Thursday prohibit kids under 18 from using social media between the hours of 10:30 p.m. and 6:30 a.m., require age verification for anyone who wants to use social media in the state and open the door to lawsuits on behalf of children claiming social media harmed them. Collectively, they seek to prevent children from being lured to apps by addictive features and from having ads promoted to them. The companies are expected to sue before the laws take effect in March 2024. The crusade against social media in Utah’s Republican-supermajority Legislature is the latest reflection of how politicians’ perceptions of technology companies has changed, including among typically pro-business Republicans. Tech giants like Facebook and Google have enjoyed unbridled growth for over a decade, but amid concerns over user privacy, hate speech, misinformation and harmful effects on teens’ mental health, lawmakers have made Big Tech attacks a rallying cry on the campaign trail and begun trying to rein them in once in office. Utah’s law was signed on the same day TikTok’s CEO testified before Congress about, among other things, the platform’s effects on teenagers’ mental health. But legislation has stalled on the federal level, pushing states to step in. Outside of Utah, lawmakers in red states including Arkansas, Texas, Ohio and Louisiana and blue states including New Jersey are advancing similar proposals. California, meanwhile, enacted a law last year requiring tech companies to put kids’ safety first by barring them from profiling children or using personal information in ways that could harm children physically or mentally. The new Utah laws also require that parents be given access to their child’s accounts. They outline rules for people who want to sue over harms they claim the apps cause. If implemented, lawsuits against social media companies involving kids under 16 will shift the burden of proof and require social media companies show their products weren’t harmful — not the other way around.

Florida bill would ban girls from talking about their periods in school, GOP lawmaker says - As local bills on gender, sexuality and diversity make their way through Florida’s state legislature, new legislation would ban any discussion of menstrual cycles in school before sixth grade. That breaks from the advice of medical providers who recommend talking to children about puberty and changes in their bodies before they occur. First periods typically start between ages 10 and 15, but can begin as young as 9 years old. That means a student could likely be in third grade up to tenth grade, or later, when a period begins.During a subcommittee hearing in the Florida House on Wednesday, Republican state Rep. Stan McClain said his bill would include restrictions on girls talking about their menstrual cycles. House Bill 1069 would only permit “instruction in acquired immune deficiency syndrome, sexually transmitted diseases, or health education” only in grades 6 through 12. Democratic state Rep. Ashley Gantt noted that young girls could start their periods earlier than sixth grade and asked for clarification on whether the bill would ban those girls from talking about them.“Does this bill prohibit conversations about menstrual cycles because we know that typically, the age is between 10 and 15,” Gantt asked. “So if little girls experience their menstrual cycle in fifth grade or fourth grade, would that prohibit conversations from them since they are in a grade lower than sixth grade?” McClain confirmed that the bill’s language would do exactly that: “It would” McClain responded. The bill is one of the latest in a series of bills expected to be signed by Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis as he seeks to transform Florida’s education system in his fight against what he calls “woke ideology.”The legislation that DeSantis has signed so far has included barring transgender student athletes from participating in school sports and new restrictions on discussions of sexual orientation and gender identity in school classrooms. It's a strategy also being used by Republicans in Congress, with the House this week expected to vote on the "Parents Bill of Rights," a legislation effort in direct response to parents who sought more authority over their children's education during the pandemic.

'Shelves have been left barren': Florida teachers sue DeSantis' government over school library regulations -- The Florida teachers union and other groups are suing the state education department, saying the way it interpreted a new law about school library books goes further than the law intended, leading to censorship and book bans.A Florida law passed last year requires more transparency about what materials schools use to teach students. The new law requires districts to catalog every book on their shelves and create a formal review process for complaints. Some parents have asked for certain books to be removed from schools because of the new law. "This legislation aims to preserve the rights of parents to make decisions about what materials their children are exposed to in school," Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis said at the time.But the union and advocacy groups say the state regulation oversteps the intent of the law by pulling classroom libraries into its umbrella. Florida school districts have responded in a range of ways:

In one district, teachers draped their classroom library bookshelves with sheets.
In another, the school district tapped into federal COVID relief funds to buy books deemed “appropriate” and offered teachers the chance to replace their classroom libraries.
In yet another, the district came under fire for pulling a children’s book about famed baseball player Roberto Clemente. The book was later reinstated after the news spread across the nation and a review determined the book met state standards.

"As a result of the rules, teachers and school librarians or library media specialists have been compelled to self-censor out of fear of losing their job – or worse, being subjected to criminal allegations – simply for trying to provide a safe learning environment for all students," the Florida Education Association and other groups suing said in a statement. "Classroom and school library shelves have been left barren, students are unable to find books reflective of a diverse range of interests and from an inclusive list of voices, and parents have been silenced." Florida is hardly the only state where books in schools and libraries are under a microscope. One analysis last year found that books were banned at least 2,500 times by more than 130 school districts across 30-plus states.

Idaho Republicans block ‘woke’ free tampons in schools proposal -Republicans in the Idaho House blocked a bill that would provide free menstrual products to public school students, calling it “liberal” and “woke.” The bill would have funded free menstrual product dispensers for sixth through 12th grade students in girls bathrooms at a cost of about $300,000 per year, or $3.50 per student, after a one-time installation cost of about $435,000. “It’s not a lot of money in the state’s budget,” bill sponsor state Rep. Rod Furniss (R) said in committee Thursday. “Today is a step to preserve womanhood, to give it a chance to start right, to not be embarrassed or feel alienated or ashamed, or to feel like they need to stay home from school due to period poverty.” Idaho is projected to have a $1.4 billion revenue surplus this year. Advocates for the bill say that the state already funds toilet paper, soap and other hygiene products for students. The Idaho Period Project estimated that three in four East Idaho students missed class due to lack of access to menstrual products. The bill failed on a tie vote on Monday, with state Rep. Heather Scott (R) calling the proposal a “very liberal policy.” “Why are our schools obsessed with the private parts of our children?” Scott said.

American teen girls are in crisis: Suicide, violence and mental health - The Washington Post -- When Sophie Nystuen created a website for teens who had experienced trauma, her idea was to give them space to write about the hurt they couldn’t share. The Brookline, Mass., 16-year-old received posts about drug use and suicide. But a majority wrote about sexual violence.“Every time I’ve tried, my throat feels like it’s closing, my lungs forget how to breathe,” wrote one anonymous poster. “I was sexually assaulted.”These expressions of inner crisis are just a glint of the startling datareported by federal researchers this week. Nearly 1 in 3 high school girls said they had considered suicide, a 60 percent rise in the past decade. Nearly 14 percent had been forced to have sex. About 6 in 10 girls were so persistently sad or hopeless they stopped regular activities. The new report represents nothing short of a crisis in American girlhood. The findings have ramifications for a generation of young women who have endured an extraordinary level of sadness and sexual violence — and present uncharted territory for the health advocates, teachers, counselors and parents who are trying to help them.The data comes from the Youth Risk Behavior Survey, conducted by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention from a nationally representative sample of students in public and private high schools. “America’s teen girls are engulfed in a growing wave of sadness, violence and trauma,” the CDC said.“It’s alarming,” Education Secretary Miguel Cardona said Thursday of the report. “But as a father of a 16-year-old and 19-year-old, I hear about it. It’s real. I think students know what’s going on. I think sometimes the adults are just now realizing how serious it is.”But high school girls are speaking out, too, about stresses that started before the pandemic — growing up in a social media culture, with impossible beauty standards, online hate, academic pressure, economic difficulties, self doubt and sexual violence. The isolation and upheaval of covid made it tougher still. When Caroline Zuba started cutting her arms in ninth grade, she felt trapped: by conflict at home, by the school work that felt increasingly meaningless, by the image her friends and teachers had of a bubbly, studious girl. Cutting replaced the emotional pain with a physical pain.She confided in a trusted teacher, who brought in the school counselors and her mother. But Zuba’s depression worsened and, at age 15, she attempted suicide. That sparked the first of a series of hospitalizations over the summer and subsequent school year.While the teen mental health crisis was clear before the CDC report, the stark findings have jolted parents and the wider public.“These are not normal numbers,” said Surgeon General Vivek H. Murthy. “When you grow up with this, I think the risk is thinking, ‘Well, this is just how it is.’”The reasons girls are in crisis are probably complex, and may vary by race, ethnicity, class and culture. Harvard psychologist Richard Weissbourd points out that “girls are more likely to respond to pain in the world by internalizing conflict and stress and fear, and boys are more likely to translate those feelings into anger and aggression,” masking their depression.Weissbourd added that girls also are socialized not to be aggressive and that in a male-dominated culture girls can be gaslit into thinking there is something wrong with them when problems or conflicts arise. “They can be prone to blaming themselves,” he said.

Florida principal resigns after parents complain about Michelangelo’s ‘David’ statue — The line between art and pornography is at the center of an education dispute after a Florida charter school principal resigned following accusations that middle school students were shown inappropriate adult content. At issue? Students in the school were shown images of Michelangelo’s Renaissance period sculpture “David,” leading to complaints that the children were shown pornographic material. Tallahassee Classical School, a private institution focused on “training the minds and improving the hearts of young people through a content-rich classical education in the liberal arts and sciences, with instruction in the principles of moral character and civic virtue,” gave its principal an ultimatum to quit or be fired after three parents complained, according to reports by the Tallahassee Democrat. “David” is a Renaissance Period sculpture depicting biblical hero David of the famous David and Goliath tale, holding his sling in the nude and standing at over five meters tall. The statue itself, sculpted by Michelangelo Buonarroti in the early 1500s, is currently on display in Florence’s Galleria dell’ Accademia.Principal Hope Carrasquilla, according to the Democrat, resigned Monday after the school board chair told her to resign or be fired. Chair Barney Bishop confirmed to the Democrat that he gave Carrasquilla that ultimatum, but would not explain why due to “advice” from the school’s attorney. Parents were informed by email on Monday. According to further reporting on the topic by the Huffington Post, the issue, at least in part, was that a protocol to inform parents in advance of showing similar types of artwork was not sent out to sixth-grade parents before the lesson due to “miscommunications.”

Detroit public schools begin cutting educator jobs, services and summer programs, as Covid funding runs out - Approximately 100 Detroit Public Schools Community District (DPSCD) staff members are set to be laid off before the next school year, coinciding with the end of federal COVID relief funding. These include teacher assistants, known as paraprofessionals in Michigan, school nurses, college transition advisors, school culture facilitators, academic deans, assistant principals and other central office staff. The layoffs are being enacted in the immediate aftermath of Democratic Governor Gretchen Whitmer’s new budget. Although the governor claims the budget includes an “historic” investment in education, it leaves schools still scrambling to provide even rudimentary services. Today, Detroit school principals are receiving their budgets and will have one month to decide what programs and staff to cut. DPSCD officials have begun to meet with staff members already targeted for layoff. Also on the chopping block are summer school and after-school programing, as well as COVID testing. Only children in grades 8-12 requiring credit-recovery for core subjects are expected to be eligible for summer school. The DPSCD Summer Learning Experience which, for all practical purposes is being ended, was recognized nationally last year for its academic enrichment and STEM classes as well as recreation. The Detroit Federation of Teachers (DFT), currently in contract negotiations, has already signaled its acquiescence if not complete indifference to the loss of educators. DFT President Lakia Wilson-Lumpkins stated at the March union meeting that “these are not our members.” (In fact, the paraprofessionals Local 2350 is also affiliated with the American Federation of Teachers.) Wilson-Lumpkins told local media, “We understand that there will be some shifts made due to the loss of COVID funding.” Her only stipulation was that the union wanted to avoid “a situation where there have been deep cuts unnecessarily or prematurely [emphasis added].” In other words, the union is not only abandoning fellow educators and critical school workers, but knows that in exchange for its “seat at the table” it will initial a new deal that keeps educators underpaid, under-resourced, and without adequate benefits. School workers, however, are in no mood to give up their livelihoods and parents are up in arms over program and job cuts. This anger was palpable at the March 12 school board meeting. Paraprofessionals about to lose their jobs spoke passionately about their children, and parents echoed their support

The way forward for the strike by 65,000 Los Angeles school workers - The strike by 65,000 public teachers and school workers in Los Angeles beginning Tuesday is a major offensive by the working class. It is the largest strike in the United States by number of workers involved since the North Carolina teachers strike in 2019. Los Angeles workers and educators are fighting against intolerable conditions. The average school worker in the Service Employees International Union makes less than $28,000 per year, leaving them unable to afford rent in Los Angeles County. According to one survey by the union, one in three district workers have either been homeless or at high risk of becoming homeless while working at the Los Angeles Unified School District. These conditions have only been made worse under conditions of rampant inflation, as well as the continuing spread of COVID. There is enormous support for a determined offensive against endless austerity and attacks on public education. In spite of hostile coverage by the corporate media, 80 percent of LA parents say they support the strike. Workers at LAUSD are taking their place in a global movement of the working class. Massive strike waves are erupting in Britain, Germany, France, Greece and Sri Lanka against austerity and poverty conditions. Last week, 50,000 teachers held a one-day strike in New Zealand. In the United States, workers are also beginning to move, including the strike by 48,000 graduate students at the University of California last year. Hundreds of thousands of workers at UPS and in the auto industry are pressing for strike action when their contracts expire later this year. This movement is developing into a direct confrontation with pro-corporate governments that have refused to give up even the slightest concessions, responding instead by ripping up democratic rights. There is “no money,” it is claimed, for decent wages and working conditions, but trillions of dollars are being poured into war. In France last week, President Emmanuel Macron, who also is raising military spending by €118 billion over six years, imposed a cut in pensions and an increase in the retirement age in the face of opposition from three-quarters of the population and without even a vote in parliament. In the US, Democrats and Republicans—including three members of the Democratic Socialists of America—joined forces last December to ban a national rail strike. This defense of relentless cost-cutting by the railroads continued with their coverup of the derailment and toxic chemical spill in East Palestine, Ohio earlier this year. The White House also wants no opposition from workers because this would upset the plans for war against Russia and China, for which it has laid out the largest military budget in history. Having launched the strike, workers now confront the need to mobilize independently in order to expand their struggle and appeal for the widest possible unity and support from workers throughout the city and the world. LAUSD workers and teachers are not only in conflict with both parties and the LAUSD administration, but with the corrupt, pro-corporate trade union bureaucracy in the United Teachers of Los Angeles and SEIU Local 99. Every major strike, or even push by workers for strike action, has collided with the opposition of the apparatus, which is determined to prevent a struggle and force through concessions. That the strike has been called at all shows that the anger and opposition has become so explosive that the apparatus feared that it was losing control of the situation. The UTLA has already kept teachers on the job for 8 months with an expired contract. For SEIU and support workers, it has been three years. They are limiting the strike to only three days, and even then have only called an Unfair Labor Practices (ULP) strike, in order to try to prevent workers from raising economic demands. Finally, workers will not see a single cent of strike pay, as was the case in the 2019 LA teachers strike.

Demanding Respect for All School Workers, LA Teachers Shut Down 2nd-Largest US School District --An estimated 65,000 teachers and school staffers from across Los Angeles walked picket lines in the rain on Tuesday as the city's public school district employees went on strike—but more than half of the picketers were staging the walkout in solidarity, protesting conditions that don't directly affect them.The 35,000 teachers who are represented by United Teachers of Los Angeles (UTLA) joined cafeteria workers, bus drivers, teaching aides, grounds workers, and others who help ensure that more than 1,000 public schools in Los Angeles run safely and smoothly, demanding that support staff are treated fairly by the district."We are LA Public Schools," tweeted UTLA. "We are on strike because we won't let the district treat any of us with disrespect. It stops here."Classes were canceled across the district—the second-largest in the nation.As Common Dreamsreported Monday, support workers represented by Service Employees International Union (SEIU) Local 99 have been in contract negotiations with the district since April 2022, and the union is demanding a 30% overall pay raise to help ensure its members can afford to live in one of the country's most expensive cities.SEIU Local 99 members currently earn about $25,000 on average.Speaking to The New York Times, SEIU Local 99 executive director Max Arias said the union's last contract expired in the early days of the coronavirus pandemic in 2020—"when his workers were on the front lines helping to feed students at lunch pickup sites even as schools were closed.""We are now here demanding respect from the district, and it starts with livable wages," said one member on a picket line on Tuesday.

Los Angeles school district, education union reach tentative deal following three-day strike -- The Los Angeles Unified School District and a union representing bus drivers, custodians and other staff have reached an agreement that will raise their salaries and improve benefits following a three-day strike. The school district said in a release on Friday that it reached a deal with the Service Employees International Union (SEIU) Local 99 — which represents the workers — on a new contract. Max Arias, the executive director of the union, said the district agreed to a series of retroactive pay increases in July and January that will collectively increase pay by about 30 percent. The release states that the minimum wage for the workers will be set at $22.52 per hour, which outpaces that of Los Angeles and California as a whole, and the district is providing a $1,000 bonus to any employees who were working for the district during the 2020-2021 academic year to recognize the “adverse circumstances” of the COVID-19 pandemic. The school district will also provide health care benefits for employees working at least four hours per day and their qualified dependents and invest $3 million in a new educational and professional development fund for union members, according to the statement.“When we started negotiating with SEIU, we promised to deliver on three goals,” Superintendent Albert Carvalho said. “We wanted to honor and elevate the dignity of our workforce and correct well-known, decades-long inequities impacting the lowest-wage earners.”“We wanted to continue supporting critical services for our students. We wanted to protect the financial viability of the District for the long haul,” Carvalho continued. “Promises made, promises delivered.”The union, which also represents cafeteria workers and special education assistants, praised the deal in a series of tweets, saying that it addresses the main demands it had and sets up “a clear pathway to improving our livelihoods and securing the staffing we need to improve student services.” Members of United Teachers Los Angeles, which represents teachers, counselors and other staff, also joined picket lines in solidarity with those represented by SEIU Local 99.

Los Angeles schools to reopen after three-day workers' strike (Reuters) - School will be back in session on Friday for 420,000 Los Angeles students after a three-day strike by education workers disrupted classes and social services in the second-largest school district in the United States. The Los Angeles Unified School District and the Service Employees International Union Local 99 failed to reach an agreement during the work stoppage, which ended on Thursday with another day of picketing and rallies by striking bus drivers, custodians, cafeteria workers and other low-wage earners. "All @LASchools will reopen this Friday, March 24. ... We look forward to seeing our students and employees back in classrooms," the school district said on Twitter on Thursday. Some 30,000 workers, backed by 35,000 unionized teachers who honored their picket line, walked off the job on Tuesday seeking an increase to what they call poverty wages averaging $25,000 per year. The work stoppage was the latest in a series of job actions by educators across the United States who have complained of burnout and low wages, leading to a teacher shortage in many parts of the country. "We're three days in and I'm willing to do some more (strike) days if we have to," said Tiffany Barba, a special education assistant and one of thousands who attended a closing rally on Thursday at Los Angeles State Historic Park. Many workers anticipated an agreement might be announced at the rally but no such news was released. "It's a long process. We don't want to sign something that we might regret later," said Orasio Morales, a driver and union shop steward. The union was demanding a 30% salary increase plus an additional $2 per hour for the lowest-paid workers, the Los Angeles Times reported. L.A. schools superintendent Alberto Carvalho, who acknowledged workers have been underpaid for years, told reporters on Monday the district had offered a 23% raise plus a 3% bonus.

Here’s the Satirical Piece About Jim Renacci His Team Demanded We Delete Because They Thought You Wouldn’t Think It Was a Joke - Cleveland Scene - The parody had Renacci championing a “Constitutional curriculum” for Ohio schools that would teach kids how to use leeches to treat dysentery, among other things. Last week, Scene published a piece of satire titled “Inside Jim Renacci’s Plan to Stop Wokeness in Ohio Schools and Make Kids Virtually Unemployable.” In retrospect, there was something wrong: As usual, I was too wordy in the headline and should have listened to the author – Pete Kotz, former Scene editor and longtime contributor to the paper, whose recent articles have included “Ohio Legislature Worries It’s Not Cruel Enough” and “Gov Mike DeWine: So Here’s Why Everyone Now Has a Gun at Perkins” – and made it shorter; but such is life trying to serve the twin gods of SEO and decent prose. Anyway.Jim Renacci’s team had a different problem with the piece, which lampooned his career and new PAC (Save Our Schools Ohio) by way of jokes about the logical and illogical ends of the former congressman’s foray into education and stacking school boards with conservatives. They thought the satirical piece – which included a joke in which Renacci claims that if he could become the “Ron DeSantis of Ohio, I’m perfectly happy to sacrifice thousands of children” and another that had him describe the future of education in the state as “somewhere between that Nazi homeschooling network and Season 1 of the Handmaid’s Tale” – sounded believable and would confuse readers. A Renacci spokesperson got in touch first, demanding the piece be deleted for being “100% false, lies and misleading. If this is intended to be satire, huge fail as no body knows you to be a satire writer.” I responded that it was both obvious satire on its face and labeled as such with an article tag, not to mention the work of an author who writes satire, but he was unconvinced.“Please remove the story,” they wrote. “This is just a hit piece. We would love to avoid litigation please.” A letter from a lawyer followed. (A copy of which is included to the right. Click to enlarge.) This (again) despite the piece starting: In what he's calling “a desperate attempt to stay relevant by exploiting the culture wars,” Jim Renacci is launching a conservative takeover of Ohio schools. His goal: to keep the state from falling behind in the national race to stop the spread of knowledge. Save Our Schools Ohio, the former congressman’s new political action committee with the appropriate acronym of So-So, promises to bring heightened sophistication to electing uber-conservative school board members, “opening a brave new era of hindering our children’s education.” Using advanced analytics, the PAC will comb the fringes of social media to identify candidates with no educational training whatsoever. Ideal recruits will include people who brag of owning pocket Constitutions, and those who are barred by court order from coming within 500 feet of their kids’ school due to previously stalking the faculty. The original satirical piece Renacci’s team doesn’t want you to read is below in full.

Ohio higher-ed bill would require instructors to teach ‘both sides’ on climate change -- Ohio college and university instructors could be barred from teaching climate science without also including false or misleading counterpoints under a sprawling higher education bill that received its first hearing Wednesday.Senate Bill 83, or the Higher Education Enhancement Act, seeks to police classroom speech on a wide range of topics, including climate change, abortion, immigration, and diversity, equity and inclusion — all of which would be labeled “controversial.” On these and other subjects, public colleges and universities would need to guarantee that faculty and staff will “encourage and allow students to reach their own conclusions” and “not seek to inculcate any social, political, or religious point of view.” Colleges and universities that receive any state funding would be barred from requiring diversity, equity and inclusion training and have to make a commitment to “intellectual diversity” that includes “divergent and opposing perspectives on an extensive range of public policy issues.” The bill also includes provisions for annual reviews and reports, requirements for “intellectual diversity” in recruiting invited speakers, disciplinary sanctions for interfering with that diversity, a prohibition against faculty strikes, and more.Sen. Jerry Cirino, a Republican from Kirtland and SB 83’s primary sponsor, said it was his idea to include climate change as a “controversial” belief or policy, and that he “didn’t actually consult with climate people.”“My agenda was not to use this bill to impact energy policy,” Cirino said. However, he also said, “What I think is controversial is different views that exist out there about the extent of the climate change and the solutions to try to alter climate change.”

Higher Education Bill Would Prohibit Ohio Staff and Employees From Striking -- A massive higher education bill that would prohibit university staff and employees from striking was introduced last week and is already drawing harsh criticism from labor unions. State Senator Jerry Cirino, R-Kirtland, introduced Senate Bill 83 which would have wide-ranging effects on colleges and universities around the state. “I would describe the bill as a radical set of solutions in search of problems,” said David Jackson, president of Bowling Green State University’s Faculty Association, a chapter of American Association of University Professors (AAUP) and the American Federation of Teachers.“A bill proposing a mindless, one size fits all set of regulations for the complex and different kinds of universities that the state of Ohio has is, in our view, a completely misguided approach to higher education policy,” he said. If passed, the bill would prohibit “bias” in classrooms, programs with Chinese schools, mandatory diversity training, labor strikes, and boycotts or disinvestments. The bill would require American history courses, public syllabuses, and teacher information be put online; tenure evaluations based on if the educator showed bias or taught with bias; and rewrite mission statements to include that educators teach so students can reach their “own conclusions.”“When you look at the bill, as a whole, it’s an absolute administrative nightmare for colleges and universities to implement everything that’s in this legislation,” said Sara Kilpatrick, the executive director of the Ohio chapter of the American Association of University Professors. “It’s going to require more administrators and it’s going to require a lot more paperwork,” she said. “And those kinds of things all take away from educating students.”Piet van Lier, a research consultant focused on justice reform and education at Policy Matters Ohio, said SB 83 would undermine public education. “What’s at stake is honest education,” Lier said. “It’s essentially an educational gag order that’s going to have a chilling effect.” Ohio Department of Higher Education Chancellor Randy Gardner said in a statement he looks forward to working with Cirino “as we together strive to strengthen education and workforce development in our state.”Taking away faculty member’s ability to strike limits the power unions can bring to the bargaining table, labor unions said. “The ability to strike is central to collective bargaining,” Kilpatrick said. “If faculty do not have the ability to strike, then it’s not collective bargaining. It’s collective begging because that’s the only leverage that faculty have to get management to come to the table and actually bargain.”

ChatGPT sends shockwaves across college campuses - In four short months, the GPT family of artificial intelligence chatbots have upended higher education like nothing since the arrival of Wi-Fi connections in classrooms. ChatGPT and its smarter, younger cousin, GPT-4, can create a realistic facsimile of a college term paper on command, or populate the answers to a midterm. At the start of the 2022-23 academic year, few professors had heard of it. They are learning fast. “I think this is the greatest creative disruptor to education and instruction in a generation,” said Sarah Eaton, an associate professor of education at the University of Calgary who studies AI. The impact of this quickly developing technology has sparked varying concerns across colleges and fields of study due to its implications for academic honesty and learning. Not everyone sees this technology as an earth-shattering phenomenon, however. Some are excited about the implications it can have on learning. “There just hasn’t been panic here on campus. In fact, the university is absolutely a wonderful place to consider all the implications both good and bad, and challenges and new questions raised by any kind of new technology, because we have people who are going to think about the problems from so many different angles and orientations,” said Jenny Frederick, executive director of the Yale Poorvu Center for Teaching and Learning and associate provost for Academic Initiatives. Across universities, professors have been looking into ways to engage students so cheating with ChatGPT is not as attractive, such as making assignments more personalized to students’ interests and requiring students to complete brainstorming assignments and essay drafts instead of just one final paper. Frederick conceded that at Yale, an Ivy League school with many resources at its disposal, it could be easier for the college to embrace the technology without fear. At small schools, such as Texas Woman’s University, ChatGPT has provoked more hesitancy. “I think the majority, the sentiment from the majority of my sort of academic network is one of sort of anxiety and fear,” said Daniel Ernst, associate professor of English at the school.

Alex Jones transferring assets to family and friends, evading payments to Sandy Hook families: NYT - Infowars host Alex Jones has transferred millions of dollars’ worth of assets to family and friends, potentially shielding his wealth from the nearly $1.5 billion in legal damages he owes to the families of the Sandy Hook shooting victims, according to The New York Times. Jones was ordered last fall to pay more than $1.4 billion in damages to the families of eight victims of the 2012 Sandy Hook school shooting, which left 20 young children and six adults dead. He was also ordered to pay another $50 million to the parents of a Sandy Hook victim in a separate Texas case.The Infowars host was hit with multiple defamation lawsuits after he repeatedly suggested that the school shooting in Newton, Conn., was a “false flag” operation staged by the U.S. government. The families of the victims, who he accused of being actors, were threatened and harassed by his followers.He filed for both personal and business bankruptcy within the last year as the damages piled up — a move that the Sandy Hook families have claimed is an effort to shield his assets from creditors.His company Free Speech Systems, which filed for bankruptcy last July, was reportedly transferring tens of thousands of dollars to PQPR, a company owned by Jones and his parents, according to the Times.Jones has also transferred a $3 million property to his wife and continues to transfer other real estate assets to family members, including an adult son, and has struck up business partnerships with several new companies created by his friends, the Times reported.The Infowars host’s financial affairs largely remain unclear, with his lawyers claiming in a recent court filing that he doesn’t remember where he holds bank accounts, how many trusts he has set up or where his 2022 W-2 form is located, per the Times.

Kentucky governor vetoes bill targeting transgender youth - (Reuters) - Kentucky's Democratic governor on Friday vetoed a Republican bill to ban transgender youths from gender-affirming healthcare and restrict public toilets they use, bucking a national Republican-led movement. Governor Andy Beshear, running in November for a second-term in Republican-leaning Kentucky, said the bill would increase youth suicides and permit excessive government interference in personal healthcare decisions. Supporters of the bill said they were trying to protect children from undergoing gender-affirming treatments they would regret later in life. The Kentucky bill would let teachers refuse to refer to transgender students by their chosen pronouns, outlaw gender reassignment surgery for minors, stop use of puberty blockers and prohibit gender-affirming hospital services. The bill easily passed Kentucky's Republican-led legislature and lawmakers may vote next week to override Beshear's veto.

Detransitioned Teen Girl Sues Kaiser Permanente Over Gender Transition Gone Wrong - A detransitioned teen is suing Kaiser Permanente hospital because doctors removed her breasts during her transgender procedure. Layla Jane is an 18-year-old woman who began to identify as transgender at age 11. Jane, at the time, wanted to transition to a male. Initially, doctors at Kaiser denied her any transition hormones, saying she could take them after turning 16. However, doctors changed their minds, approved her request, and performed a double mastectomy when she was 13.Jane wrote on Twitter, “Mind boggling to me that a doctor signed off on a double mastectomy for me before I took a sex ed course. I barely started 8th grade, I was 13.”In the letter of intent to sue (pdf), her attorneys at LiMandri and Jonna LLP accused the doctors of approving the breast-removal surgery “without performing an adequate evaluation and treatment of Layla’s extensive mental health co-morbidities.”According to the letter, Jane suffers from anxiety, depression, pubertal struggles, body dysmorphia, and serious self-image concerns.“These doctors also pushed Layla and her parents down this transition path engaging in intentional, malicious, and oppressive concealment of important information and false representations,” the letter states.The lawsuit demands unspecified amounts of pay for damages related to her health issues during her transition period from ages 12 to 17. The case listed Jane as suffering from permanent, irreversible mutilation, an induced state of endocrine disease, an increased risk of being infertile, and the fact that she would never be able to breastfeed a child.During an appearance on Fox News with her attorney, Harmeet Dhillon, Jane said, “I don’t think I’m better off for the experience, and I think transition just completely added fuel to the fire that was my pre-existing conditions.”In a statement to DailyMail, Kaiser said that its doctors “practice compassionate, evidence-based medicine founded on sound research and best medical practices.”“When adolescent patients, with parental support, seek gender-affirming care, the patient’s care team carefully evaluates their treatment options,” Kaiser spokesman Marc Brown said. “The care decisions always rest with the patient and their parents, and, in every case, we respect the patients and their families’ informed decisions about their personal health.”

Abortion on the ballot? Not if these Republican lawmakers can help it. --Oklahoma’s leading anti-abortion group is pushing GOP lawmakers to loosen the state’s near-total ban. In a recent letter to legislators, Oklahomans for Life Chair Tony Lauinger argued that if they don’t amend the state’s anti-abortion law to add exceptions for rape and incest, there is a real chance a citizen-led ballot initiative to make all abortion legal will eventually succeed. His efforts, which other lawmakers and anti-abortion groups have slammed as immoral and politically naive, are the latest example of the national scramble to prevent voters from restoring abortion access by popular vote. Legislatures in Arkansas, Florida, Idaho, Missouri, North Dakota, Ohio and Oklahoma are debating bills this session that would hike the filing fees, raise the number of signatures required to get on the ballot, restrict who can collect signatures, mandate broader geographic distribution of signatures, and raise the vote threshold to pass an amendment from a majority to a supermajority. While the bills vary in wording, they would have the same impact: limiting voters’ power to override abortion restrictions that Republicans imposed, which took effect after the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade last year. After watching the pro-abortion rights side win all six ballot initiative fights related to abortion in 2022 — including in conservative states such as Kansas and Kentucky — conservatives fear, and are mobilizing to avoid, a repeat. “It was a wake-up call that taught us we have a ton of work to do,” said Kelsey Pritchard, the state public affairs director for Susan B. Anthony Pro-Life America, which plans to spend tens of millions of dollars on ballot initiative fights on abortion over the next two years. “We’re going to be really engaged on these ballot measures that are often very radical and go far beyond what Roe ever did.” In Mississippi, where a court order froze all ballot efforts in 2021, GOP lawmakers are advancing legislation that would restore the mechanism but prohibit voters from putting abortion-related measures on the ballot. “I think it just continues the policy of Mississippi and our state leaders that we’re going to be a pro-life state,” said Mississippi state Rep. Nick Bain, who presented the bill on the House floor.

Wyoming governor signs measure prohibiting abortion pills -— Wyoming Gov. Mark Gordon signed a bill Friday night prohibiting abortion pills in the state and also allowed a separate measure restricting abortion to become law without his signature. The pills are already banned in 13 states with blanket bans on all forms of abortion, and 15 states already have limited access to abortion pills. The Republican governor’s decision comes after the issue of access to abortion pills took center stage this week in a Texas court. A federal judge there raised questions about a Christian group’s effort to overturn the decades-old U.S. approval of a leading abortion drug, mifepristone. Medication abortions became the preferred method for ending pregnancy in the U.S. even before the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade, the ruling that protected the right to abortion for nearly five decades. A two-pill combination of mifepristone and another drug is the most common form of abortion in the U.S. Wyoming’s ban on abortion pills would take effect in July, pending any legal action that could potentially delay that. The implementation date of the sweeping legislation banning all abortions that Gordon allowed to go into law is not specified in the bill. With an earlier ban tied up in court, abortion currently remains legal in the state up to viability, or when the fetus could survive outside the womb.

US maternal mortality is more than 10 times higher than in Australia. Why? - America is in a maternal health crisis. According to new CDC datareleased this week, the rate of maternal mortality – defined as deaths during pregnancy or within 42 days of giving birth – rose by 40% in 2021. At a rate of 33 deaths for every 100,000 live births, 1,205 women died of maternal causes that year. That rate was more than twice as high for Black women, whose maternal mortality rate was 70 deaths for every 100,000 live births. The latest federal compilation of data from reviews of maternal deaths suggests that 84% were preventable. Experts believe that 2021’s spike in maternal mortality can be attributed at least partly to the Covid-19 pandemic, though it’s not clear exactly how. Perhaps infection and exposure to the virus made pregnant women more vulnerable; perhaps the pandemic caused some women to delay or forgo prenatal care as hospitals strained to treat the surge of virus patients and shutdowns made all kinds of care harder and riskier to get. But even before Covid-19, America has long been an outlier in maternal deaths, with dramatically higher rates of women dying in or as a result of childbirth than in peer nations. America has 10 or more times the rate of pregnancy-related death in Australia, Austria, Israel, Japan and Spain.The women reflected in 2021’s data died from high blood pressure and from infections; they died from hemorrhage, and from blood clots, and from strokes. They died because doctors incorrectly administered epidurals, or botched C-section procedures, and they died because they weren’t given oxygen when they needed it. More broadly, they died because pregnancy is a totalizing physical experience, one that challenges and changes the body in profound, irreversible ways that are kept from public discussion by ignorance and taboo, and they died because they lived in a country where medicine is rationed and unaffordable, where women’s healthcare has been starved of both talent and investment, and where disregard for both public health and for female pain has left vast swaths of pregnant people vulnerable in ways that reflect more on the values of their society than on the fragility of their bodies.They also died, it should be said, from racist negligence. The racial disparities in the data are staggering: Black women are dramatically more likely to die in childbirth. Some of this can be attributed to the broad health disparities between Black Americans and other groups – the result of the strains of poverty, overwork, exposure to pollution, and vulnerability to violence that have long kept Black people in the US physically overtaxed and under-cared for.But the higher rate of maternal mortality among Black women in America also appears to come from negligence and contempt directed at them by medical providers, who allow racist fictions about Black women’s tolerance for pain, or about their propensity for drug use, or about the worthiness of their lives, to infect their attitudes and degrade the quality of their care. The maternal mortality rate in America is likely to get worse before it gets better. The dramatic increase in deaths in 2021 was the third consecutive year that the rate rose – the trend is only going in one direction. And the 2021 data was collected before the US supreme court’s June 2022 Dobbs decision, which reversed Roe v Wade and led to the enforcement of laws across dozens of states that forbid or delay medically necessary abortions. This means that pregnant women are getting sicker, and waiting longer for care; it also means that many doctors are now frightened of the legal repercussions they will face for intervening to save pregnant women’s lives. More bodies will accumulate; more lives will be cut short; more women will be lost to the cruelty, indifference, scarcity and fear that now pervades our medical system.

COVID exploited US political divisions along with racial and health disparities - Despite being one of the world's highest income countries, with strong healthcare and a high rank for preparedness, the United States struggled with COVID-19 and the pandemic played out vastly different ways across the country. A new analysis published yesterday dug into the reasons, some of which aren't surprising, and provided insight into the nuanced factors in play.Researchers who examined what drove variations in state response to the pandemic published their findings yesterday in The Lancet. They looked at state-level COVID data from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation's (IHME) COVID-19 database, as well as government economic, education, and census data. They also factored in state pandemic policies and behaviors, such as vaccine coverage.Their goal was to examine five key areas that might explain differences among states: the role of social inequities; healthcare and public health capacities; politics; state pandemic policies and how long they were sustained; and tradeoffs between COVID burden and education and economic outcomes. For deaths, they found a fourfold difference in rates across states, with fatalities lowest in Hawaii and New Hampshire and highest in Arizona and Washington, DC. Overall, they found that states with higher poverty, lower levels of education, less access to quality healthcare, and less trust in others had disproportionately higher rates of COVID infections and deaths. These factors were common denominators in states with the highest Black populations and those that voted for the Republican candidate in the 2020 election.Study co-author Thomas Bollyky, JD, who directs the Council on Foreign Relations' Global Health Program, said in a Lancet press release, "What is clear from our study is that COVID-19 exploited and compounded existing local racial inequities, health disparities, and partisan politics to create a syndemic—a combination of local factors that interact, increasing the burden of disease from this pandemic and the likelihood of poor outcomes."Though states with greater access to quality healthcare performed better, researchers didn't find a link between higher state spending on public health or more public health personnel and better health outcomes.Partisan politics played a more nuanced role, and the team found no link between political affiliation of the state governor and death rates from COVID. Five of 10 states with the lowest death rates had Republican governors: Vermont, New Hampshire, Maryland, Ohio, and Nebraska. And though the five best-performing states were led by Democrat governors, the key predictor of infections and deaths was the share of the state that voted Republican in the 2020 election.

SARS-CoV-2 Infection Weakens Immune-Cell Response to Vaccination - NIH -The magnitude and quality of a key immune cell’s response to vaccination with two doses of the Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 vaccine were considerably lower in people with prior SARS-CoV-2 infection compared to people without prior infection, a study has found. In addition, the level of this key immune cell that targets the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein was substantially lower in unvaccinated people with COVID-19 than in vaccinated people who had never been infected. Importantly, people who recover from SARS-CoV-2 infection and then get vaccinated are more protected than people who are unvaccinated. These findings, which suggest that the virus damages an important immune-cell response, were published in the journal Immunity.The study was co-funded by the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID), part of the National Institutes of Health, and led by Mark M. Davis, Ph.D. Dr. Davis is the director of the Stanford Institute for Immunity, Transplantation and Infection and a professor of microbiology and immunology at Stanford University School of Medicine in Palo Alto, California. He is also a Howard Hughes Medical Institute Investigator. Dr. Davis and colleagues designed a very sensitive tool to analyze how immune cells called CD4+ T cells and CD8+ T cells respond to SARS-CoV-2 infection and vaccination. These cells coordinate the immune system’s response to the virus and kill other cells that have been infected, helping prevent COVID-19. The tool was designed to identify T cells that target any of dozens of specific regions on the virus’s spike protein as well as some other viral regions. The Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine uses parts of the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein to elicit an immune response without causing infection.The investigators studied CD4+ and CD8+ T-cell responses in blood samples from three groups of volunteers. One group had never been infected with SARS-CoV-2 and received two doses of the Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 vaccine. The second group had previously been infected with SARS-CoV-2 and received two doses of the vaccine. The third group had COVID-19 and was unvaccinated. The researchers found that vaccination of people who had never been infected with SARS-CoV-2 induced robust CD4+ and CD8+ T-cell responses to the virus’ spike protein. In addition, these T cells produced multiple types of cell-signaling molecules called cytokines, which recruit other immune cells—including antibody-producing B cells—to fight pathogens. However, people who had been infected with SARS-CoV-2 prior to vaccination produced spike-specific CD8+ T cells at considerably lower levels—and with less functionality—than vaccinated people who had never been infected. Moreover, the researchers observed substantially lower levels of spike-specific CD8+ T cells in unvaccinated people with COVID-19 than in vaccinated people who had never been infected. Taken together, the investigators write, these findings suggest that SARS-CoV-2 infection damages the CD8+ T cell response, an effect akin to that observed in earlier studies showing long-term damage to the immune system after infection with viruses such as hepatitis C or HIV. The new findings highlight the need to develop vaccination strategies to specifically boost antiviral CD8+ T cell responses in people previously infected with SARS-CoV-2, the researchers conclude.

Survey finds no link between COVID vaccination and period disruption - A survey conducted in United Kingdom women in March of 2021 found no concerning changes in menstrual periods among women who received the COVID-19 vaccines, UK researchers reported yesterday in the journal iScience.For the study, the team asked women about menstrual changes during the pandemic, their COVID-19 vaccination history, and whether they had been sick with the virus. The participants included nearly 5,000 premenopausal women who had been vaccinated. Researchers found that 82% reported no changes. Of the 18% who reported changes, risks were higher in people who smoked, had previously been sick with COVID-19, or were not using oral contraceptives.When the investigators looked at a wider group of 12,000 participants, which included unvaccinated women, they found no greater risk of disruption in vaccinated women than their unvaccinated peers who had never been sick with the virus. However, those with a history of COVID-19 were more likely to report heavy bleeding, missed periods, and bleeding between periods.Jackie Maybin, MBChB, PhD, a study author with the University of Edinburg's MRC Centre for Reproductive Health, said in a University of Edinburgh press release that the results may reflect some bias, due to those who chose to complete the survey. "Nevertheless, our results are reassuring that Covid-19 vaccination does not cause concerning menstrual changes, and helpful for identifying people who might be at higher risk of experiencing menstrual disturbance."

Nirmatrelvir tied to 26% lower risk of long COVID, 47% lower risk of death The antiviral drug nirmatrelvir (one of the components of Paxlovid) lowered the risk of long COVID in patients who had at least one risk factor for severe illness, finds a study published today in JAMA Internal Medicine. Researchers from the VA St. Louis Health Care System and Washington University used the US Department of Veterans Affairs' healthcare databases to identify patients who tested positive for COVID-19 from January 3 to December 31, 2022, weren't hospitalized on the day of the test, and had at least one risk factor for severe infection.The team compared long-COVID rates among the 35,717 patients who received oral nirmatrelvir within 5 days of testing positive with those of the 246,076 control patients who received no COVID-19 antiviral or antibody treatment during infection. Average age was 62 years, and 86.0% were men. Relative to the control group, nirmatrelvir was tied to a reduced risk of long COVID (relative risk [RR], 0.74; absolute risk reduction at 180 days [ARR, 4.51%), including a lower risk of 10 of 13 signs and symptoms involving the cardiovascular system (abnormal heart rhythms and ischemic heart disease), blood-clotting and hematologic disorders (pulmonary embolism and deep vein thrombosis), fatigue and malaise, acute kidney disease, muscle pain, neurologic system, and shortness of breath.Nirmatrelvir was also linked to a reduced risk of death after acute infection (hazard ratio [HR], 0.53; ARR, 0.65%), and post-infection hospitalization (HR, 0.76; ARR, 1.72%). Nirmatrelvir was also associated with a lower risk of long COVID, regardless of vaccination status and history of infection."The totality of evidence suggests that improving the uptake and use of nirmatrelvir in the acute phase as a means of not only preventing progression to severe acute disease but also reducing the risk of post-acute adverse health outcomes may be beneficial," the authors wrote.

"Concerning": Myocarditis Diagnoses Spiked In Military in 2021, New Data Show - The rate of myocarditis spiked in the military in 2021, newly disclosed data show. Diagnoses of myocarditis, a form of heart inflammation, jumped 130.5 percent in 2021 when compared to the average from the years 2016 to 2020, according to data from the Defense Medical Epidemiology Database (DMED). The data was downloaded by a whistleblower and presented to Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wis.). Myocarditis is a serious condition that can lead to death. All four of the COVID-19 vaccines authorized in the United States can cause myocarditis, according to U.S. officials. They added a warning for Johnson & Johnson’s shot this month. COVID-19 can also cause myocarditis, though some experts say the data on that front is weaker. The whistleblower downloaded the data from DMED in 2023, about a year after the Pentagon said it fixed a data corruption issue with the military health system. The data also showed spikes in diagnoses of pulmonary embolism (41.2 percent), ovarian dysfunction (38.2 percent), and “complications and ill-defined descriptions of heart disease” (37.7 percent). Johnson called the spike in diagnoses “concerning.” The Pentagon and the Defense Health Agency, which manages the DMED, did not respond to requests for comment.

Meta-analysis reveals risk, protective factors for long COVID -- A meta-analysis of 41 long-COVID studies identifies female sex, older age, obesity, smoking, underlying medical conditions, and previous hospitalization or intensive care unit (ICU) admission as risk factors for developing the condition, while two-dose vaccination was protective.In the meta-analysis, published today in JAMA Internal Medicine, a team led by Norfolk and Norwich University Hospital in the United Kingdom searched the Medline and Embase databases for studies on long-COVID risk factors, protective factors, and clinical predictors published up to December 5, 2022.The researchers noted that previous studies on long-COVID risk factors have involved relatively few patients and that wide discrepancies in the published data have yielded unclear results."Not only is it important to recognize which individuals may be at high risk of developing PCC [post-COVID condition] and to offer follow-up care; it is imperative to plan population-level public health measures," they wrote.The 41 studies of 860,783 hospitalized and nonhospitalized patients revealed several risk factors for long COVID, including female sex (odds ratio [OR], 1.56), age older than 40 years (OR, 1.21), obesity (OR, 1.15), smoking (OR, 1.10), chronic conditions (OR, 2.48), and previous hospitalization (OR, 2.48) or ICU admission (OR, 2.37). But patients who had received two doses of COVID-19 vaccine had a significantly lower risk of long COVID than those who weren't vaccinated (OR, 0.57). Underlying medical conditions significantly associated with long COVID were anxiety and/or depression (OR, 1.19), asthma (OR, 1.24), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD; OR, 1.38), diabetes (OR, 1.06), suppressed immune system (OR, 1.50), and ischemic heart disease (OR, 1.28).Some researchers have proposed that the link between female sex and long COVID may be due to hormones, which may perpetuate the hyperinflammatory status of the acute phase of COVID-19, the authors noted, adding that greater production of immunoglobulin G antibodies in females during infection could also have a role.Obesity may be associated with long COVID because the two conditions share a metabolic pro-inflammatory condition that promotes a longer duration of signs and symptoms, the researchers said. And "smoking has been shown to be a significant risk factor for both PCC and severe acute COVID-19 infection," they wrote. "However, it is unclear whether smoking per se or the associated severe illness predisposes this cohort of patients to higher risk of PCC."The tie between hospitalization or ICU admission suggests that critically ill COVID-19 patients' follow-up should include intensive plans for prevention, rehabilitation, and treatment of symptoms, the researchers said.COVID-19 vaccination, they said, has benefits beyond that of preventing and ameliorating infection."Importantly, emerging evidence suggests that vaccination reduces the risk of PCC and its sequelae even in individuals with other risk factors, such as older age or high BMI [body mass index]," they wrote.The authors concluded by saying that long-COVID patients may need long-term support but that substantial pandemic-related health system burdens may not always allow this.

California’s Covid Misinformation Law Is Entangled in Lawsuits, Conflicting Rulings --Gov. Gavin Newsom may have been prescient when he acknowledged free speech concerns as he signed California’s covid misinformation bill last fall. In a message to lawmakers, the governor warned of “the chilling effect other potential laws may have” on the ability of doctors to speak frankly with patients but expressed confidence that the one he was signing did not cross that line.Yet the law — meant to discipline doctors who give patients false information about covid-19 — is now in legal limbo after two federal judges issued conflicting rulings in recent lawsuits that say it violates free speech and is too vague for doctors to know what it bars them from telling patients.In two of the lawsuits, Senior U.S. District Judge William Shubb in Sacramento issued atemporary halt on enforcing the law, but it applies only to the plaintiffs in those cases. Shubb said the law was “unconstitutionally vague,” in part because it “fails to provide a person of ordinary intelligence fair notice of what is prohibited.” His ruling last month clashed with one handed down in Santa Ana in December; in that case, U.S. District Judge Fred Slaughter refused to halt the lawand said it was “likely to promote the health and safety of California covid-19 patients.”The legal fight in the nation’s most populous state is to some extent a perpetuation of the pandemic-era tussle pitting supporters of public health guidelines against groups and individuals who resisted masking orders, school shutdowns, and vaccine mandates.California’s covid misinformation law, which took effect Jan. 1, is being challenged by vaccine skeptics and civil liberties groups. Among those suing to get the law declared unconstitutional is a group founded by Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who has questioned the science and safety of vaccines for years.But doubts about the law are not confined to those who have battled the scientific mainstream.Dr. Leana Wen, a health policy professor at George Washington University who previously served as president of Planned Parenthood and as Baltimore’s health commissioner, wrote in an op-ed a few weeks before Newsom signed the law that it would exert “a chilling effect on medical practice, with widespread repercussions that could paradoxically worsen patient care.”The Northern California affiliate of the American Civil Liberties Union has weighed inagainst the law on free speech grounds, though the national organization has affirmedthe constitutionality of covid vaccine mandates.“If doctors are scared of losing their licenses for giving advice that they think is helpful and appropriate, but they don’t quite know what the law means, they will be less likely to speak openly and frankly with their patients,” said Hannah Kieschnick, an attorney with the ACLU of Northern California.

CDC Data: Omicron Subvariant XBB.1.5 Responsible for 90% of New COVID-19 Cases -Omicron subvariant XBB.1.5 remains dominant over all other coronavirus strains in the U.S. but appears to be plateauing. The subvariant was responsible for approximately 90% of new infections this week, according to estimates from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. That’s roughly the same as last week and up about 2 percentage points from two weeks ago.XBB.1.5’s growth in March is significantly less than it was in February, when it jumped from 62% of cases to 82%.The highly transmissible strain is also the most prominent globally and the only one showing a significant growth.Coronavirus cases in the U.S. continue to decline. Still, nearly 30% of U.S. counties are experiencing a “high” level of COVID-19 transmission, according to CDC data. With most COVID-19 factors trending in a positive direction, the Biden administration reportedly plans to disband the White House COVID-19 response team in May. The move comes as the Biden administration shifts priorities elsewhere and plans to end a pair of COVID-19 emergency declarations on May 11. Taken together, these moves are the biggest signs yet that the Biden administration is ready to put the pandemic in the rearview window.

WHO: COVID activity up in 3 world regions - In its latest global COVID-19 update, the World Health Organization (WHO) said patterns reflect a mixed picture in its tracking over the last 28 days, with infections rising in the Eastern Mediterranean, South East Asia, and European regions. However, at the global level, cases declined 31%, and deaths were down 46% compared with the previous 4-week period.In the Eastern Mediterranean region, which is seeing the steepest rise, Iran, Kuwait, and Pakistan reported the highest proportional increases. In South East Asia, the increase is led by a large spike in India, which had a 251% increase over the reporting period. And in Europe, nearly half of countries reported rises, with the highest proportional increases in Kyrgyzstan, Armenia, and Ukraine. Also, Russia and Austria reported modest rises in new daily cases over the past 28 days.In its variant update, the WHO said the proportion of the XBB.1.5 Omicron subvariant has risen to 37.7% globally, up from 29% in the last reporting period. It said XBB and related viruses are the only variants under monitoring that are rising, with the rest stable or decreasing.In other COVID developments, the White House will disband its COVID response team when the public health emergency winds down in May, the Washington Post reported yesterday, based on information from anonymous sources who have knowledge of international operations. An official said the move parallels the shift away from the emergency phase of the pandemic but that COVID-19 isn't over and is still an administration priority.

Covid XBB Variant: New Covid variant could be behind fresh spike in India --A fast spreading XBB.1 descendent - XBB.1.16 - could be behind the recent surge in Covid cases in India, international and Indian scientists tracking the SARS-CoV2 variants told TOI on Tuesday.According to an international platform tracking Covid variants, the highest number of this sublineage's sequences have come from India (48), followed by Brunei (22), the United States (15) and Singapore (14). According to reports, this subvariant is showing a big jump in prevalence in at least four countries, including India. Experts tracking the Covid variants around the world have found the XBB.1.16 spreading rapidly in some regions. Stay vigilant, Centre tells states as Covid-19 positivity rises graduallyThe Centre on Saturday expressed concern over a gradual increase in the Covid-19 positivity rate in some states and said it needed to be promptly addressed. In a letter to states and UTs, Union health secretary Rajesh Bhushan said operational guidelines for integrated surveillance of respiratory"In India, XBB.1.16 is showing a high prevalence in the states of Maharashtra and Gujarat, as per covSPECTRUM. XBB.1.16 has not descended from XBB.1.5, but both have descended from the recombinant ancestor XBB and more recently XBB.1. XBB is currently dominating in India, and the latest uptick in cases in the country could be a result of XBB.1.16 and perhaps XBB.1.5, but a few more sample runs would clear the picture," a top expert from India's genome sequencing network said.India is currently witnessing a surge in viral infections caused by H3N2, Covid-19 and swine flu. Real-time surveillance by the Integrated Disease Surveillance Programme (IDSP) shows that 955 cases of H1N1, also referred to as swine flu, have been reported by states till February 28."Most strains isolated from Indian travellers to Singapore, the US and Brunei recently have been XBB.1.16. So, this subvariant could be driving the ongoing spike in cases in India. It is also possible that XBB.1.16 may have originated in India," the expert said, adding that XBB.1.16 could eventually dominate all other SARS-CoV-2 circulating variants.

Covid XBB Variant: India registering big Covid spike. Dangerous XBB 1.16 variant could be behind it. Here's all you should know - India is witnessing a recent spike inCovid cases. In the past couple of days, the total number of single-day Covid cases have risen from nearly 300 to over 1000 cases. India saw a single-day rise of over 1,000 fresh COVID-19 cases after 129 days today.As per experts, the rise in Covid cases is happening most likely due to newly-detected Covid XBB 1.16 variant of the Covid virus. The XBB 1.16 variant was first identified in January when two samples tested positive, and in February, a total of 59 samples were found. So far in March, 15 more samples of the variant have been detected.The number of Covid XBB 1.16 variant cases detected in India is the highest across the world. The second highest number of cases have been detected in the US. Experts believe that that this new subtype may lead to a fresh wave of the pandemic across the world.A total of 1,071 fresh cases were reported in the county in a span of 24 hours, while the death toll increased to 5,30,802 with three latest fatalities -- one each reported in Rajasthan and Maharashtra and one reconciled in Kerala.The Centre has issues fresh advisory.Here is all you need to know about the new Covid XBB virus:Is Covid XBB 1.16 life-threatening?As per the initial research, the Covid XBB 1.16 variant is the fastest-spreading Covid subtype detected till now and can multiply at an alarming rate.However, not a single death has been reported due to Covid XBB across the globe.What are the common symptoms of the new COVID variant?As of now, there is little to no difference between the symptoms of Covid XBB 1.16 and XBB 1.15.The symptoms of this variant include fever, sore throat, cold, headache, body aches, and fatigue. It also might impact your digestive system and respiratory system.

Explained | XBB.1.16, the Omicron recombinant behind India’s new COVID spike - Over the past three years and multiple waves of infection, SARS-CoV-2 continues to evolve by accumulating genetic variations. Uncommonly, a co-infection of multiple lineages of the virus could result in recombinations between genomes which can give rise to chimeric genomes, otherwise called recombinants.While most recombinations may not give rise to viable viruses, there is a rare possibility that recombination could result in the creation of a new lineage of the virus with better functional capabilities than either of the parent lineages. Genome sequencing and surveillance of viruses could efficiently identify such recombinants, as they would have the variant complement of two-parent lineages. Several recombinant lineages of SARS-CoV-2 have emerged during the course of the COVID-19 pandemic. The PANGO network, an international consortium of researchers for naming SARS-CoV-2 lineages, has an established system for identifying and designating recombinants of SARS-CoV-2. Currently, close to 100 recombinant lineages have been designated by the PANGO network, all of which begin with the letter ‘X’, followed by a letter to denote the order of their detection. Two recombinant lineages of SARS-CoV-2 are currently designated as ‘Variants Under Monitoring’ by the World Health Organization: XBB, a recombinant of Omicron sublineages BA.2.10.1 and BA.2.75, and XBF, a recombinant of BA.5.2.3 and BA.2.75.3 Omicron sublineages. The lineage XBB.1.5, a sublineage of the XBB first identified in New York City in October 2022, is currently designated as a Variant of Interest (VOI) by the WHO. Tracking Omicron recombinants is important for the early detection of lineages that may have functional advantages over currently circulating variants such as increased transmissibility in populations with prior immunity to the virus. First detected in SARS-CoV-2 sequences from India, the XBB.1.16 is a recombinant lineage of the virus and is a descendent of the XBB lineage. The earliest sequence of this lineage belongs to a viral genome isolated in New York in January 2023 and the lineage has been seen to be circulating predominantly in India.A significant number of the genomes from outside India, such as in the U.S. and Singapore, have been linked to international travel, mostly from India. The variant has to date been detected in at least 14 countries across the world. The lineage XBB.1.16 has a number of mutations in common with the VOI XBB.1.5. Additional key mutations including E180V and T478R in the Spike protein and I5T in ORF9b are present in the XBB.1.16 lineage.In contrast, the XBB.1.5 has the mutation T478K in the Spike area. T478R is associated with immune escape, or the ability of the virus to evade antibodies raised from previous infections or vaccines. The ORF9b I5T mutation is also found in the lineage XBB.1.9 and has been widely believed to lend a growth advantage to the virus.Preliminary data also suggest that XBB.1.16 has a higher growth advantage over currently circulating SARS-CoV-2 lineages, including the XBB.1.5 lineage.

'XBB' COVID Variants Unlikely to Cause New Wave of Infection, Say Experts - The fresh spike in COVID cases does not indicate a new wave, and there is no need to panic, health experts said on Monday. India recorded 699 new COVID cases and two deaths in the last 24 hours, the Union Health Ministry said on Tuesday. The country's total active caseload currently stands at 6,559, which is 0.01% of total cases. With the two new fatalities, the overall COVID-19 death toll has increased to 5,30,808. On Sunday, the highest COVID cases were reported from Kerala (1,796), followed by Maharashtra (1,308), Gujarat (740), Karnataka (616), Tamil Nadu (363), Telangana (237), and Delhi (209). "We believe that this is a change between the two seasons, and we see a spurt in the cases because of that. As soon as the summer sets in and the sweltering heat come in, hopefully, these cases will go down," "COVID is now just like the flu or a common cold. There is no significant increase in hospitalisation, ICU admission or death rate," added epidemiologist Dr. (Prof) Amitav Banerjee. "Testing is not a good indicator as of today. It has become endemic. People carry so many germs in their throat such that tests will always give you an increase in numbers. The numbers can raise panic levels anytime," Banerjee told IANS. Experts say the rise in COVID cases is likely due to the Omicron offspring XBB 1.15 and XBB 1.16 variants. A recent study published in the journal Lancet Infectious Diseases showed that the XBB.1.5 has high transmissibility and infectivity. Researchers at the University of Tokyo in Japan found that an individual with the XBB.1.5 variant could infect 1.2 times more people than someone with the parental XBB.1 variant. They also added XBB.1.5 has the "potential to cause the next epidemic surge."

COVID XBB 1.16 Symptoms: India sees a jump in COVID XBB 1.16 cases, H3N2 scare looms high: Know the symptoms and how to prevent these viral attacks - As per the INSACOG, the forum that studies and monitors genome sequencing and virus variation of circulating strains of COVID-19 in India, a total of 76 samples of new COVID variant XBB 1.16 has been found in the country. As per the official data, the samples have been found in Karnataka, Maharashtra, Puducherry, Delhi, Telangana, Gujarat, Himachal Pradesh and Odisha. The highest number of XBB 1.16 cases has been found in Karnataka and Maharashtra, the data reveals. The death toll due to H3N2 infection has climbed to nine. The recent case was reported from Pune’s Pimpri-Chinchwad when a 73-year -old man succumbed to the viral infection on Friday, reports have said.With the risk of this seasonal influenza virus on rise, state governments and governments of the union territories have issued advisory urging people to practice hygiene and take care of children and elderly people. Though two different viruses are in discussion here, the symptoms are similar to each other (maybe because both of these viruses affect the respiratory tract of a healthy individual).The common signs that may confuse people of whether it is H3N2 or COVID are fatigue, cough, headache and sore throat. While clinically it is difficult to differentiate between the two infections, confirmation can be established after a test.Flu is more likely to cause high fever and myalgia or body ache.COVID's classic signs are sore throat, cough, and congested or runny nose."Compared with flu, COVID-19 can cause more severe illness in some people. Compared to people with flu, people infected with COVID-19 may take longer to show symptoms and may be contagious for longer periods of time," the US CDC says.The US CDC says, "people with flu virus infection are potentially contagious for about one day before they show symptoms," and adds that "older children and adults with flu appear to be most contagious during the first 3-4 days of their illness, but some people might remain contagious for slightly longer periods. Infants and people with weakened immune systems can be contagious for even longer." In case of COVID, people can spread the virus 2-3 days before showing symptoms and this peaks just a day before the symptoms show. COVID infected people can also spread the disease even when they are not symptomatic.

H3N2 Influenza: Symptoms, Transmission & Treatment - The H3N2 virus is one of the sub-types of the Influenza A virus, which is also known as type A. It i one of the most frequently-occurring causes of the common flu. It is very easily transmitted between people through droplets left in the air from sneezing or coughing. t. The H3N2 virus, just like the H1N1 sub-type of influenza, triggers flu symptoms like headache, fever and nasal congestion. It is very important to maintain adequate hydration to help flush out the virus from the body. It is also advised to use medication that will help to manage symptoms, like acetaminophen or ibuprofen. Although H2N3 is a sub-type of the Influenza A virus, it does not cause flu symptoms in people, as this virus is only found in animals. Therefore, it is most likely that your symptoms are related to the H3N2 or H1N1 viruses. Imagem ilustrativa número 1 Main symptoms Symptoms of an H3N2 infection are the same as an H1N1 infection. These symptoms include: High fever, over 38ºC (or 100.4ºF) Body aches Sore throat Headaches Sneezing Coughing Runny nose Chills Excessive fatigue Nausea and vomiting Diarrhea, which will more frequently occur in children Muscle weakness The H3N2 virus is more frequently identified in children and older adults, although it can also infect pregnant women and recently post-partum women fore frequently. It can also easily infect people with compromised immune systems or chronic diseases. How transmission occurs Transmission of the H3N2 virus happens very easily through droplets that remain suspended in the air when an infected person coughs, speaks or sneezes. It can also occur through direct contact with infected people or with indirect contact of infected objects.

Outbreak of highly resistant Pseudomonas linked to eye drops grows to 68 - In an update yesterday, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) said 68 patients in 16 states have been identified in the outbreak of a rare strain of extensively drug-resistant Pseudomonas aeruginosalinked to eye drops. The outbreak, which was first reported by the CDC in January, involves a carbapenem-resistant P aeruginosa(CRPA) strain carrying the Verona integron-mediated metallo-beta-lactamase (VIM) and Guiana extended-spectrum beta-lactamase (GES) genes. Multiple types of infections, including eye infections, have been reported. Of the 68 patients identified by the CDC and state and local health departments as of March 14, 37 were linked to four healthcare facilities. Three patients have died, eight have experienced vision loss, and four have had an eye surgically removed.Most patients reported using artificial tears, with EzriCare Artificial Tears the most commonly reported brand and the only one used in all four affected healthcare facilities. CDC testing identified the presence of VIM-GES-CRPA isolates in opened bottles from patients with and without infections in two states. CDC is advising the public and healthcare providers to stop using EzriCare and Delsam Pharma's Artificial Tears pending further investigation and guidance and is urging anyone who has used the products and has signs and symptoms of an eye infection to seek care immediately.The VIM-GES-CRPA isolates are resistant to multiple antibiotics used to treat Pseudomonas infections, including carbapenems, ceftazidime, cefepime, piperacillin-tazobactam, aztreonam, and ceftazidime-avibactam. Prior to the outbreak, P aeruginosa strains carrying this combination of resistance genes had not been seen in the United States. The CDC considers multidrug-resistant P aeruginosa a serious threat.

Study suggests E coli in meat could be causing urinary tract infections | CIDRAP -A new study by US researchers suggests bacteria found in meat could be a significant source of human urinary tract infections (UTIs).The study, published last month in the journal One Health, applied comparative genomic analysis and a novel modeling method to more than 3,000 Escherichia coli isolates from human clinical infections and raw turkey, chicken, and pork products in a small US city. Their analysis found that 8% of the clinical E coli isolates, which were mostly from UTIs, originated in the meat.If extrapolated to the entire US population, that would mean foodborne E coli could account for as many as 480,000 to 640,000 of the 6 to 8 million UTIs recorded in the United States each year. E coliis the leading cause of UTIs.The authors say the findings of the study provide compelling evidence that potentially dangerous strains of E coli are making their way from animals to people through the food system.Foodborne E coli is generally associated with gastrointestinal illness and certain diarrhea-causing strains are tracked by US health officials to make sure they are not contaminating the food supply. But the idea that the enteric bacteria could also be a cause of UTIs was proposed more than 60 years ago and has subsequently been supported by sporadic outbreak investigations, the researchers note. They added further evidence in astudy published in mBio in 2018.That study, which used the same collection of E coli isolates, found that ST131-H22, a lineage of a multidrug-resistant E coli strain that causes complicated UTIs, was prevalent in clinical samples and chicken and turkey meat. One of the discoveries that confirmed the findings from that study was that both the human- and poultry-associated isolates of that E coli strain shared an MGE that likely originated in poultry.

Study: Infant Mortality Racial Gaps Persist in Ohio Over Last Decade -- A new study shows persisting infant mortality gaps in Ohio’s minority population that demand more than just health care intervention.A report by the Health Policy Institute of Ohio for the last decade showed infant mortality has gradually gone down overall, but for Black Ohioans, the rate is still 164% higher than for white Ohioans.“Despite the efforts of many in both the public and private sectors, progress since 2011 has been minimal and uneven, and Ohio’s infant mortality rate remains higher than most other states,” the study found.From 2011 to 2021, the overall infant mortality rate has gone from 7.9 to 7 per 1,000 births. But in Black babies, the rate has gone from 16 per 1,000 births in 2011 to 14.2 in 2021. Hispanic infant mortality rates are slightly higher than the state average as well, at 7.4 deaths per 1,000 births.“These racial disparities in infant mortality persist even when taking parental income and education into account,” according to the study. “Rather, the evidence is clear that racism is a primary driver of racial disparities in infant mortality.”The study also comes as new data from the CDC shows maternal mortality is higher in new mothers than in other industrialized nations, and deaths for Black infants nationwide went up over the course of the COVID-19 pandemic.Half of the “modifiable factors” the institute found in the 2023 report that would affect overall health were connected to “community conditions,” like education, employment, housing, and transportation.Leading causes of infant mortality have been found to be poor birth outcomes; sudden, unexplained infant death; as well as accidents, injuries, and violence. Connected to those causes is inadequate access to prenatal and post-natal care, but also lack of access to health foods, physical activity, education, and employment.HPIO’s study saw poverty and “toxic and persistent stress” as further negative effects on health and equity, causing higher infant mortality rates.

CDC study warns of ‘dramatic increase’ in deadly fungus across US --Candida aurism, a rare and sometimes deadly fungal disease, is spreading through the U.S., the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) warned this week, citing a “dramatic” increase in cases.The fungus, which affects primarily old people and those with weakened immune systems, rejects treatments from traditional antifungal medications and has a mortality rate of up to 60 percent, health officials said.There were at least 2,377 confirmed cases in the U.S. in 2022, according to CDC statistics. That total was a steep jump from the 1,474 cases in 2021 and continued a rapid increase from 2020, when there were just 757 confirmed cases.Health officials said that the fungus’s resistance to antifungal medication is “particularly concerning” because those medications are often the first option for treatment, saying it necessitates research into better protection and prevention measures against the fungus. “The rise in echinocandin-resistant cases and evidence of transmission is particularly concerning because echinocandins are first-line therapy for invasive Candida infections, including C auris,” a research paper into the spread of the fungus in the Annals of Internal Medicine said. “These findings highlight the need for improved detection and infection control practices to prevent spread of C auris.” The disease has now been tracked in half of the states in the U.S., and CDC officials said it was likely that the coronavirus pandemic worsened the spread of the fungus, as the increased attention on the COVID-19 virus meant there was less emphasis on screening for C. auris.

Candida auris fungal infection rapidly spreading in U.S. - A deadly and highly drug resistant fungus is spreading at “an alarming rate” in long-term care hospitals and other health facilities caring for very sick people, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention announced Monday.Fungal infections from the yeast strain known as Candida auris tripled nationally from 476 in 2019 to 1,471 in 2021, according to CDC data. Cases where a person carries the fungus but is not infected nearly quadrupled from 1,077 to 4,040 in the same time period. Preliminary data suggests the numbers have continued to rise.Scientists believe the fungus is not a threat to healthy people whose immune systems can fight it off. But it poses a danger to medically fragile people, including nursing home patients on ventilators and cancer patients on chemotherapy. Between 30 to 70 percent of hospitalized people who develop bloodstream infections are estimated to die.CDC experts say the increased spread underscores the need for robust infection control plans to reduce transmission of a fungus that can cause outbreaks because it lingers on surfaces and spreads through contact with patients and contaminated objects.“If [the fungi] get into a hospital, they are very difficult to control and get out,” William Schaffner, a professor of medicine in the infectious diseases division of Vanderbilt University Medical Center. “They can persist, smoldering, causing infections for a considerable period of time despite the best efforts of the infection control team and everyone else in the hospital.”Thorough cleaning of hospitals is challenging because of how long the fungus lingers on surfaces, said Meghan Lyman, a CDC medical officer and lead author of the paper detailing the fungus’s spread. Some disinfectants commonly used in health care settings don’t work against this fungus, she said.Authorities first detected Candida in the United States in 2016. The fungus is considered a serious global public health threat because it is resistant to different classes of antifungal drugs. Resistance to echinocandin drugs, often the first treatment deployed, remains rare in the United States, but researchers are concerned that a small but growing number of cases are resisting that class of drugs.

Geographical expansion of cases of dengue and chikungunya beyond the historical areas of transmission in the Region of the Americas - WHO - The increase in the incidence and geographical distribution of arboviral diseases, including chikungunya and dengue, is a major public health problem in the Region of the Americas (1). Dengue accounts for the largest number of cases in the Region, with epidemics occurring every three to five years. Although dengue and chikungunya are endemic in most countries of Central America, South America, and the Caribbean, in the current summer season, increased transmission and expansion of chikungunya cases have been observed beyond historical areas of transmission. Furthermore, 2023 is showing intense dengue transmission. In addition, higher transmission rates are expected in the coming months in the southern hemisphere, due to weather conditions favourable for the proliferation of mosquitoes.There have been 2.8 million dengue cases reported in the Americas in 2022, which represents over a two-fold increase when compared to the 1.2 million cases reported in 2021. The same increasing trend has been observed for chikungunya, with a high incidence of meningoencephalitis possibly associated to chikungunya reported by Paraguay, which is of further concern.At the regional level, WHO is assessing the risk as high due to the widespread presence of vector mosquitoes, the continued risk of severe disease and even death, and the expansion outside of historical areas of transmission, where all the population, including risk groups and healthcare workers, may not be aware of clinical manifestations of the disease, including severe clinical manifestations; and where populations may be immunologically naïve (2).In 2022, a total of 3 123 752 cases (suspected and confirmed) of arboviral disease were reported in the Region of the Americas. Of these, 2 809 818 (90%) were dengue cases and 273 685 (9%) were chikungunya cases. This represents a proportional increase of approximately 119% compared to 2021. In 2022, both dengue and chikungunya peaked at epidemiological week (EW) 18 (week commencing 1 May 2022) (3).In 2022, a total of 2 809 818 cases of dengue, including 1290 deaths, representing a two-fold increase in cases and almost three-fold increase in deaths compared with the cases reported in 2021 (1 269 004 cases, including 437 deaths). During the same period, the highest cumulative incidence of dengue cases was reported in the following countries: Nicaragua with 1455.4 cases per 100 000 population, followed by Brazil with 1104.5 cases per 100 000 population, and Belize with 788.9 cases per 100 000 population (3).Between 1 January 2023 and 4 March 2023, a total of 342 243 dengue cases including 86 deaths were reported in the Region of the Americas. During the same period, the highest cumulative incidence of dengue cases was reported in Bolivia, with 264.4 cases per 100 000 population, followed by Nicaragua with 196.8 cases per 100 000 population, and Belize with 145.6 cases per 100 000 population (3).

Multi-country outbreak of cholera, External situation report #1 - 22 March 2023 – WHO - Since the last disease outbreak news on the global cholera situation was published on 11 February 2023, the global situation has further deteriorated with four new countries reporting outbreaks. In total, 24 countries are reporting cases as of 20 March. The overall capacity to respond to the multiple and simultaneous outbreaks continues to be strained due to the global lack of resources, including shortages of the oral cholera vaccine, as well as overstretched public health and medical personnel, who are dealing with multiple disease outbreaks and other health emergencies at the same time. Based on the current situation, WHO assesses the risk at the global level as very high. Download Report (1.8 MB)

Equatorial Guinea's Marburg virus outbreak expands - Following several weeks of little new information on Equatorial Guinea's first Marburg virus outbreak, which began in January, the country is reporting more cases and more extensive transmission of the virus, according to an update yesterday from the World Health Organization (WHO).Eight more confirmed cases have been reported, bringing the total to nine. Seven people among the nine confirmed cases have died from their infections. There are also 20 probable cases, all fatal.Of the eight new confirmed cases, two are from Kie-Ntem province, four are from Litoral, and two are from Centro Sur. The WHO said the provinces are about 150 kilometers (93 miles) apart, suggesting wider transmission. It also said uncertain epidemiologic links in Centro Sur suggest potential undetected spread of the virus.The group added that it has deployed experts to Equatorial Guinea to assist the nation's response and community engagement. Given that the country is grappling with the virus for the first time, its capacity needs to the strengthened, the WHO said.The three affected provinces share borders with Cameroon and Gabon, and international crossings are frequent with porous borders. The WHO assessed the risk to Equatorial Guinea as very high, to the region as moderate, and to the globe as low.Tanzania this week confirmed its first Marburg virus outbreak. Since 2021, four African countries have reported their first outbreaks involving the virus, which is similar to Ebola.

RNA vaccination in rabbit mothers confers benefits to offspring in the womb, shows study - Newly developed mRNA vaccines against Zika virus and HIV-1 produced strong antibody responses that transferred from pregnant rabbits to their offspring, researchers report in the journal Molecular Therapy. As noted by the authors, the results support further development of their vaccine platform, LION/repRNA, for maternal and neonatal settings to protect against mother-to-child transmission of pathogens in animals and humans. The recent success of mRNA vaccines in response to the COVID-19 pandemic is a catalyst for the development of mRNA vaccines targeting other infectious diseases. The U.S. Food and Drug Administration has authorized mRNA vaccines for children aged 6 months and older, and preliminary findings in pregnant women have shown no obvious detriment. "Preventing mother-to-child transmission is a major goal for reducing disease burden in newborns," says senior author Amit Khandhar, a material scientist at HDT Bio Corp. "With mRNA vaccines attracting global attention, there is a need to evaluate their safety and immunogenicity in preclinical models that inform maternal and childhood vaccination." Khandhar collaborated with Herman Staats of Duke University School of Medicine and Noah Sather of Seattle Children's Research Institute to evaluate self-amplifying replicon (repRNA) vaccines. The researchers delivered the vaccines with their clinical-stage LION nanoparticle formulation in pregnant rabbits by using Zika virus and HIV-1 as model disease targets. These two pathogens play a major role in causing infections in newborns after mother-to-child transmission. The repRNA vaccines encode viral enzymes that amplify the expression of a gene of interest by 10- to 100-fold over non-replicating mRNA, providing dosing and manufacturing advantages. The proprietary LION delivery technology is a stable oil-in-water nanoparticle emulsion that electrostatically binds and protects nucleic acids, in contrast to lipid nanoparticle formulations, which encapsulate RNA. Because LION is stored independent of repRNA, it has plug-and-play functionality, allowing for rapid evaluation of new repRNA vaccine constructs such as those recently developed to address emerging SARS-CoV-2 variants. The results showed that repRNA immunization at a relatively high dose was well tolerated and had no detrimental impact on litter size. The LION/repRNA vaccines also triggered robust antigen-specific antibody responses in adult pregnant rabbits that were likely passively transferred to offspring in utero

Roundup, the World's Favorite Weed Killer, Linked to Liver, Metabolic Diseases in Kids - For Brenda Eskenazi, what once seemed merely a rich vein of epidemiological knowledge has turned out to be a mother lode.Eskenazi, who runs the Center for the Health Assessment of Mothers and Children of Salinas study (known as CHAMACOS, Mexican Spanish slang for “little kids”), has tracked pairs of mothers and their children for more than 20 years. She’s collected hundreds of thousands of samples of blood, urine and saliva, along with exposure and health records. This treasure trove of data has produced unprecedented insights into the effects of environmental hazards on children living in California’s Salinas Valley, an agricultural region often called the “world’s salad bowl.” So when Charles Limbach, a doctor at a Salinas health clinic, saw an explosion of fatty liver disease in his young patients and found a study linking the condition in adults to the weed killer glyphosate, he contacted Eskenazi.Eskenazi, who also heads the Center for Environmental Research and Children’s Health at the University of California, Berkeley, offered to pull samples from her freezer to test Limbach’s suspicions about glyphosate, the main ingredient in Roundup and the most popular herbicide on the planet. The pair enlisted the help of Paul Mills, chief of U.C. San Diego’s Behavioral Medicine Division, who led the glyphosate study in adults, along with several other scientists at Eskenazi’s center.The results of the team’s study of Eskenazi’s children, published in the peer-reviewed journal Environmental Health Perspectives earlier this month, echoed what Mills had found in older patients. ”We show an association between early life exposure to glyphosate and liver inflammation and metabolic disease in young adults,” said Eskenazi, who led the study. These conditions can be precursors for more serious diseases, including liver cancer and cardiometabolic diseases like stroke and diabetes, she said. “And these are only 18-year-olds.”The metabolic and liver conditions the researchers found in 18-year-olds living in Salinas farmworker communities were once diseases found mostly in much older adults. But the national prevalence of childhood metabolic syndrome and obesity has increased at an alarming rate, the team notes in their study, particularly among populations of color.The study’s results are of “great concern,” Eskenazi said. “We’re seeing an epidemic of liver problems and metabolic disease in children and young adults, and we need to understand why we’re seeing this huge increase.”The team measured levels of glyphosate and its main breakdown product, AMPA (short for aminomethylphosphonic acid), in urine samples from mothers during pregnancy and in their children at 5, 14 and 18 years old. They also analyzed records of glyphosate use near study participants’ homes.Teenagers who had metabolic syndrome and markers of liver disease at age 18 had higher urinary concentrations of AMPA and glyphosate between ages 5 and 18 years. Metabolic syndrome in the 18-year-olds was also associated with agricultural use of glyphosate near their homes during early childhood.

Scientists uncover startling concentrations of pure DDT along seafloor off LA coast - First it was the eerie images of barrels leaking on the seafloor not far from Catalina Island. Then the shocking realization that the nation's largest manufacturer of DDT had once used the ocean as a huge dumping ground—and that as many as half a million barrels of its acid waste had been poured straight into the water. Now, scientists have discovered that much of the DDT—which had been dumped largely in the 1940s and '50s—never broke down. The chemical remains in its most potent form in startlingly high concentrations, spread across a wide swath of seafloor larger than the city of San Francisco. "We still see original DDT on the seafloor from 50, 60, 70 years ago, which tells us that it's not breaking down the way that (we) once thought it should," said UC Santa Barbara scientist David Valentine, who shared these preliminary findings Thursday during a research update with more than 90 people working on the issue. "And what we're seeing now is that there is DDT that has ended up all over the place, not just within this tight little circle on a map that we referred to as Dumpsite Two." These revelations confirm some of the science community's deepest concerns—and further complicate efforts to understand DDT's toxic and insidious legacy in California. Public calls for action have intensified since the Los Angeles Times reported in 2020 that dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethane, banned in 1972, is still haunting the marine environment today. Significant amounts of DDT-related compounds continue to accumulate in California condors and local dolphin populations, and a recent study linked the presence of this once-popular pesticide to an aggressive cancer in sea lions. With a $5.6-million research boost from Congress, at the urging of Sen. Dianne Feinstein, D-Calif., numerous federal, state and local agencies have since joined with scientists and environmental nonprofits to figure out the extent of the contamination lurking 3,000 feet underwater. (Another $5.2 million, overseen by California Sea Grant, will be distributed this summer to kick off another 18 months of research.) The findings so far have been one stunning development after another. A preliminary sonar-mapping effort led by the Scripps Institution of Oceanography identified at least 70,000 debris-like objects on the seafloor. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, after combing through thousands of pages of old records, discovered that other toxic chemicals—as well as millions of tons of oil drilling waste—had also been dumped decades ago by other companies in more than a dozen areas off the Southern California coast."When the DDT was disposed, it is highly likely that other materials—either from the tanks on the barges, or barrels being pushed over the side of the barges—would have been disposed at the same time," said John Lyons, acting deputy director of the EPA's Region 9 Superfund Division. He noted that the new science being shared this week is critical to answering one of the agency's most burning questions: "Is the contamination moving? And is it moving in a way that threatens the marine environment or human health?"

‘Cancer alley’ residents say they are victims of environmental racism in new lawsuit - Residents of an area of Louisiana that has become known as “cancer alley” due to the prominence of pollution coming from industry there are alleging that they are the victims of environmental racism in a new lawsuit. They specifically point to a 2014 land use plan issued by their parish, the Louisiana equivalent of a county, which designated majority-black areas as places where industry could develop, according to the lawsuit. The suit also says that the plan protected Catholic churches but left Baptist churches vulnerable to pollution, “which made the discrimination compound – religious and racial – and thus doubly unlawful.” The suit also said that the parish has approved every request by heavy industry to put facilities in majority-Black areas, but hasn’t approved a request to do the same in majority-white areas in 46 years. “The Defendants… have intentionally chosen to locate over a dozen enormous industrial facilities in the majority Black 4th and 5th Districts, while explicitly sparing white residents from the risk of environmental harm,” it alleged. The lawsuit was filed on behalf of environmental justice groups Inclusive Louisiana and Rise St. James as well as the Triumph Baptist Church against the parish, its council and its planning commission. “Over and over, the St. James Parish Council has ignored us, has denied our cries for equal rights, for basic human rights,” said Rise St. James’s Shamyra Lavigne in a written statement. “But we stand here today to say we will not be ignored, you will not sacrifice our lives.”

Scientists make 'disturbing' find on remote island: plastic rocks - There are few places on Earth as isolated as Trindade island, a volcanic outcrop a three- to four-day boat trip off the coast of Brazil. So geologist Fernanda Avelar Santos was startled to find an unsettling sign of human impact on the otherwise untouched landscape: rocks formed from the glut of plastic pollution floating in the ocean. Santos first found the plastic rocks in 2019, when she traveled to the island to research her doctoral thesis on a completely different topic—landslides, erosion and other "geological risks." She was working near a protected nature reserve known as Turtle Beach, the world's largest breeding ground for the endangered green turtle, when she came across a large outcrop of the peculiar-looking blue-green rocks. Intrigued, she took some back to her lab after her two-month expedition. Analyzing them, she and her team identified the specimens as a new kind of geological formation, merging the materials and processes the Earth has used to form rocks for billions of years with a new ingredient: plastic trash. "We concluded that human beings are now acting as a geological agent, influencing processes that were previously completely natural, like rock formation," she told AFP. "It fits in with the idea of the Anthropocene, which scientists are talking about a lot these days: the geological era of human beings influencing the planet's natural processes. This type of rock-like plastic will be preserved in the geological record and mark the Anthropocene." The finding left her "disturbed" and "upset," said Santos, a professor at the Federal University of Parana, in southern Brazil. She describes Trindade as "like paradise": a beautiful tropical island whose remoteness has made it a refuge for all sorts of species—sea birds, fish found only there, nearly extinct crabs, the green turtle. "So it was all the more horrifying to find something like this—and on one of the most ecologically important beaches." She returned to the island late last year to collect more specimens and dig deeper into the phenomenon. Continuing her research, she found similar rock-like plastic formations had previously been reported in places including Hawaii, Britain, Italy and Japan since 2014. But Trindade island is the remotest place on the planet they have been found so far, she said. She fears that as the rocks erode, they will leach microplastics into the environment and further contaminate the island's food chain.

Florida beaches could be dealt a one-two punch of red tide and giant seaweed blob Some of Florida's most popular beaches could be in for a one-two punch of trouble as thousands of spring breakers flock to the Sunshine State. A toxic algae bloom known as red tide is already killing fish along the Gulf Coast, causing a stench. Now, a massive blob of seaweed twice as wide as the United States is drifting across the Atlantic and could wash ashore in the coming weeks, creating an even bigger mess. "It could be two problems turning into a bigger one," said Mike Parsons, a marine science professor at Florida Gulf Coast University. The algae bloom has essentially choked some sea life, producing a foul smell as dead marine animals wash ashore. It's not the only effect. The ocean breeze can carry a toxin released by the red tide algae ashore, which can cause health problems for people including coughing, irritated throat and itchy eyes, as well as difficulty breathing and asthma attacks. The algae occurs naturally. But professor Parsons and a team from the water school at Florida Gulf Coast University are looking into whether pollution is making the blooms worse. Bad red tides have occurred in the past, Parsons said, including in the 1940s, 50s and 60s. "The big concern is: now that our coastlines are more developed and there's a lot more people in Florida than there used to be, how are we affecting water quality and how is that affecting red tide?" he said. "There is evidence that we are influencing red tide through discharges," he said. "Any of the nutrients that get into our water bodies – Lake Okeechobee, Caloosahatchee, other rivers – those nutrients can come down into the coastal waters of the Gulf of Mexico, and they may be feeding red tide." In other words, while pollution is "definitely" not the cause of the problem, according to Parsons, "it may be aggravating the problem." Red tide originates dozens of miles offshore when there are high amounts of the algae known as Karenia brevis. Parsons said that based off of data his team has collected, the belief is that red tide sits in deep water, then rises to the surface after moving inshore, where it becomes concentrated and causes a traffic jam at the coastline.

Millions of Dead Fish Clog Australian River - Millions of dead fish are clogging up a river in southeastern Australia, angering locals who must endure the smell of rotting carcasses that have blanketed the water for days. Officials say it’s because of a lack of oxygen sparked by rising temperatures and recent floods, while residents are blaming the government for water mismanagement. “There are dead fish everywhere,” Graeme McCrabb, a Menindee resident, said Sunday, describing the smell in the Darling-Baaka River in New South Wales as far-reaching and pungent. Among the dead fish are native species such as bony bream, Murray cod, golden perch and silver perch, he said, adding that carp, an invasive species, are also part of the kill.Video he took from his boat showed a thick carpet of silver fish carcasses on top of the water.Australian officials have been aware of the disaster since Friday,acknowledging “a developing large-scale fish death event” involving millions of carcasses in the river. The New South Wales Department of Primary Industries (DPI) blamed low oxygen levels in the water, known as hypoxia, as floodwaters recede.“The current hot weather in the region is also exacerbating hypoxia, as warmer water holds less oxygen than cold water, and fish have higher oxygen needs at warmer temperatures,” the agency said Friday in astatement.McCrabb said the same remote area had recorded large-scale fish deaths in December 2018 and January 2019, calling them the result of poor-quality water entering the river, which is often used for fishing. But this time, McCrabb said, the disaster is much worse, and many in the town are “angry and disappointed” that officials appear not to have learned from the previous mass fish deaths.“No one was ready for what was seen here,” McCrabb said, adding that officials had “failed in their duties” to manage the river and collect data to help prevent such disasters.“If you know the quality of the water is good or bad, you can make more informed decisions on how water is released downstream from the lakes and avoid sending blackwater downstream to kill fish,” McCrabb said.Blackwater events happen “during flooding when organic material is washed off the river bank and floodplain and into the river system,” according to the New South Wales water department.

It's mid-March and the Great Lakes are virtually ice-free. That's a problem. - It’s the middle of March and the Great Lakes are virtually ice-free. Ice has been far below average this year, with only 7% of the lakes covered as of last Monday — and no ice at all on Lake Erie. Lake Erie's average ice coverage for this time of year is 40%, based on measurements over the past half-century. The lake typically freezes over the quickest and has the most ice cover because it's the shallowest of the five Great Lakes. But communities along Ohio's north coast, including Cleveland, Sandusky and Port Clinton, have seen considerably less ice forming on Lake Erie in recent years. - No ice isn’t a good thing for the lakes’ ecosystem. It can even stir up dangerous waves and lake-effect snowstorms. During stormy winter months, ice cover tempers waves. When there is low ice cover, waves can be much larger, leading to lakeshore flooding and erosion. That happened in January 2020 along Lake Michigan’s southwestern shoreline. Record high lake levels mixed with winds whipped up 15-foot waves that flooded shorelines, leading Gov. Tony Evers to declare a state of emergency for Milwaukee, Racine and Kenosha counties. And while less ice may seem like a good thing for the lakes’ shipping industry, those waves can create dangerous conditions. The Great Lakes have been losing ice for the past five decades, a trend that scientists say will likely continue. Of the last 25 years, 64% had below-average ice, said Michael Notaro, the director of the Center on Climatic Research at the University of Wisconsin-Madison. But this also comes with a lot of ups and downs, largely because warming is causing the jet stream to “meander,” said Ayumi Fujisaki Manome, a scientist at the Cooperative Institute for Great Lakes Research at the University of Michigan who models ice cover and hazardous weather across the lakes. There is a lot of year-to-year variability with ice cover spiking in years like 2014, 2015 and 2019 where the lakes were almost completely iced over. A downturn in ice coverage due to climate change will likely have cascading effects on the lakes’ ecosystems. Lake whitefish, a mainstay in the lakes’ fishing industry and an important food source for other fish like walleye, are one of the many Great Lakes fish that will be affected, said Ed Rutherford, a fishery biologist who also works at the Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory. Lake whitefish spawn in the fall in nearshore areas, leaving the eggs to incubate over the winter months. When ice isn’t there, strong winds and waves can stir up the sediment, reducing the number of fish that are hatched in the spring, Rutherford said. Walleye and yellow perch also need extended winters, he said. If they don’t get enough time to overwinter in cold water, their eggs will be a lot smaller, making it harder for them to survive. Declining ice cover on the lakes is also delaying the southward migration of dabbling ducks, a group of ducks that include mallards, out of the Great Lakes in the fall and winter, Notaro said. And if the ducks spend more time in the region it will increase the foraging pressure on inland wetlands. Warming lakes and a loss of ice cover over time also will be coupled with more extreme rainfall, likely inciting more harmful algae blooms, said Notaro. These blooms largely form from agricultural runoff, creating thick, green mats on the lake surface that can be toxic to humans and pets.

Much of West Coast faces ban to fish salmon amid low stocks — As drought dried up rivers that carry California’s newly hatched Chinook salmon to the ocean, state officials in recent years resorted to loading up the fish by the millions onto trucks and barges to take them to the Pacific. The surreal and desperate scramble boosted the survival rate of the hatchery-raised fish, but still it was not enough to reverse the declining stocks in the face of added challenges. River water temperatures rose with warm weather, and a Trump-era rollback of federal protections for waterways allowed more water to be diverted to farms. Climate change, meanwhile, threatens food sources for the young Chinook maturing in the Pacific. Now, ocean salmon fishing season is set to be prohibited this year off California and much of Oregon for the second time in 15 years after adult fall-run Chinook, often known as king salmon, returned to California’s rivers in near record-low numbers in 2022. “There will be no wild-caught California salmon to eat unless someone has still got some vacuum sealed last year in their freezer,” said John McManus of the Golden State Salmon Association. Experts fear native California salmon, which make up a significant portion of the Pacific Northwest’s fishing industry, are in a spiral toward extinction. Much of the salmon caught off Oregon originate in California’s Klamath and Sacramento rivers. After hatching in freshwater, they spend three years on average maturing in the Pacific, where many are snagged by commercial fishermen, before migrating back to their spawning grounds, where conditions are more ideal to give birth. After laying eggs, they die. Already California’s spring-run Chinook are listed as threatened under the Endangered Species Act, while winter-run Chinook are endangered along with the Central California Coast coho salmon, which has been off-limits to California commercial fishers since the 1990s. The Pacific Fishery Management Council, the authority responsible for setting ocean salmon seasons off the Pacific coast, is expected in early April to formally approve its proposed closure of Chinook fishing along the coast from Cape Falcon in northern Oregon to the California-Mexico border.

Half Of California Lifted Out Of Drought; Flooding Now A Concern As More Rain Looms - Almost half of California is out of a drought, including San Francisco, Sacramento, and Los Angeles, according to data released by the U.S. Drought Monitor March 16. But with so much Sierra Nevada Mountain snowpack, the possibility of flooding is a new concern, forecasters in the National Weather Service Office of Water Prediction warned. According to the drought monitor, about 45 percent of the state is now out of a drought including nearly all of Central California. But some swaths of Northern and Southern California remain in “abnormally dry” and “moderate drought” conditions. California has experienced severe drought conditions, off and on, since 2006, leading to water rationing and regulations, in urban and agricultural zones and unprecedentedly low reservoir levels statewide. But its long-standing water woes took a positive turn after a series of storms that started in December. By mid-January, the mountain snowpack reportedly exceeded 200 percent, according to the National Weather Service. According to the state’s water data, reservoirs that were once depleted are now filling up with some over 80 percent full - and groundwater reserves have received a significant boost. (Screenshot via California Department of Water Resources) Due to the excessive snowpack, the National Weather Service warned March 16 that approximately 15 million Californians are at risk for some type of flooding in their communities, including 1.4 million for major flooding and another 6.4 million may be hit moderately. More rain, according to forecasters, is expected next Tuesday and Wednesday.

From drought to deluge: California experiences second snowiest winter on record - This winter season in California has been one for the books, with snowpack statewide doubling the normal levels and much above what’s typical by April 1st, historically the deepest snow depth of the season. Despite widespread flooding and mandatory evacuations around rivers and creeks, the southern Sierra region, particularly Soda Springs, has seen an impressive amount of snowfall, marking the second snowiest winter on record with over 17 m (56 feet) of snow. While still shy of the record set during the 1951-52 season, with more snow predicted, it’s expected to come close in the next couple of weeks. California is currently experiencing a winter season like no other, as snowpack statewide has exceeded double the normal levels for this time of year. While the excess moisture is a much-welcomed relief for the state’s drought, the back-to-back winter storms have caused flooding around rivers and creeks, particularly in Porterville and Kernville in central California. Despite the overwhelming moisture, the southern Sierra has experienced the most significant benefits of the active winter season. This season, Soda Springs, California has received 17.2 m (56.4 feet) of snow, marking the second snowiest season since records began in 1946. Although the area is about 3.35 m (11 feet) shy of the record set during the 1951-52 season, with more snow predicted in the next couple of weeks, it’s expected to come very close to or even exceed that record. Another area of low pressure in California’s upper atmosphere is expected to team up with Pacific moisture to continue to bring heavy snowfall and gusty winds to the southwest through mid-week. A significant weather event is forecast to hit California and the southwestern quadrant of the United States over the next few days as a low-pressure system rapidly develops over the Pacific. The outer edge of the precipitation associated with this system is already moving onshore across southern California. The National Weather Service predicts heavy rain and mountain snow to expand through California, the Great Basin, the Four Corners, and the central and southern Rockies as the system moves across these areas through Thursday morning. The storm center is expected to approach and possibly make landfall near San Francisco this evening, bringing potentially damaging wind gusts, especially as the system acquires some sub-tropical characteristics near the center under an anomalously cold upper low over the ocean. A strong pressure gradient is also anticipated, which could lead to maximum wind gusts near 120.7 km/h (75 mph) across southern California. The surge of subtropical moisture accompanying the system will create a ripe environment for heavy rain from the central coastline to southern California. Heavy rain is likely to lead to rapid runoff and areas of flooding across southern California, with isolated flooding instances possible for regions to the north. The mountainous terrain of the southern/central Sierra Nevada and Southern California will see heavy snow as snowfall accumulations add up to as much as 91.4 cm (3 to 4 feet) in spots. This additional snowfall will lead to difficult travel and could strain infrastructure in areas still buried under a record-breaking snowpack for the year-to-date.

California farmers flood their fields in order to save them -(Reuters) - When Don Cameron first intentionally flooded his central California farm in 2011, pumping excess stormwater onto his fields, fellow growers told him he was crazy. Today, California water experts see Cameron as a pioneer. His experiment to control flooding and replenish the ground water has become a model that policy makers say others should emulate. With the drought-stricken state suddenly inundated by a series of rainstorms, California's outdated infrastructure has let much of the stormwater drain into the Pacific Ocean. Cameron estimated his operation is returning 8,000 to 9,000 acre-feet of water back to the ground monthly during this exceptionally wet year, from both rainwater and melted snowpack. That would be enough water for 16,000 to 18,000 urban households in a year. "When we started doing this, our neighbors thought we were absolutely crazy. Everyone we talked to thought we would kill the crop. And lo and behold, believe me, it turned out great," said Cameron, vice president and general manager of Terra Nova Ranch, a 6,000-acre (2,400-hectare) farm growing wine grapes, almonds, walnuts, pistachios, olives and other crops in the San Joaquin Valley, the heart of California's $50 billion agricultural industry. If more farmers would inundate their fields rather than divert precipitation into flood channels, that excess could seep underground and get stored for when drought conditions return. California swings between disastrous drought and raging floodwaters. This season has been especially rainy, with 12 atmospheric rivers pounding California since late December, placing greater importance on flood control. More wet weather is forecast in the coming week. Terra Nova's basins are filled with 1.5 to 3.5 feet of water, Cameron said Wednesday. He plans to eventually flood 530 acres of pistachio trees and 150 acres of wine grapes plus another 350 acres that are planted only when excess floodwater is available. The state Department of Water Resources provided $5 million and Terra Nova another $8 million for the project, which includes a pumping system. So far there has been virtually zero return for the company, Cameron said, though it may acquire future water rights for its groundwater contributions. Cameron "is definitely what we call the godfather of on-farm recharge. He's really the pioneer who began doing it first," said Ashley Boren, CEO of Sustainable Conservation, an environmental group with a focus on supporting sustainable groundwater management. This mimicking of nature - letting water flow across the landscape - is the most cost-effective way to manage peak flood flows, experts say, while banking the surplus for drier days. "It's not only going to benefit us, it will benefit our neighbors," Cameron said.

More than 700 000 people lost power as heavy rainfall and strong winds hit California, U.S. - videos Southern California faces a barrage of extreme weather as record-breaking rainfall, powerful wind gusts, and widespread power outages impact the region. Air travel has also been disrupted, and a man lost his life in Portola Valley when a tree fell on his sewer truck. While the torrential downpour provides relief from the long-term drought, it brings additional challenges, including flooding, flight cancellations, and complications for communities in the mountains still recovering from recent snowstorms. California continues to experience heavy rainfall, trimming down the long-term drought that has plagued the region. Despite this relief, the torrential downpour has caused flooding, with flood advisories and watches remaining in effect on March 22, 2023. Downtown Los Angeles recorded 36 mm (1.43 inches) of rain on March 21, breaking a 130-year-old record for that day. Higher elevations below the snow level received 100 – 127 mm (4 – 5 inches) of rain. The storm is expected to gradually wind down by the end of March 22. High wind gusts have swept across the region, with multiple reports of gusts exceeding 160 km/h (100 mph). Hopper Canyon, near San Bernardino, experienced the highest wind gust at 190 km/h (118 mph). Other locations with wind gusts over 160 km/h (100 mph) include San Guillermo Mountain with 169 km/h (105 mph) and Magic Mountain with 164 km/h (102 mph). Loma Prieta, south of San Jose, experienced gusts of 143 km/h (89 mph), nearly matching the previous week’s top gust of 156 km/h (97 mph). In Southern Coast and San Diego areas, the highest wind gusts were reported in Boucher Hill at 105 km/h (65 mph) and Harrison Park at 97 km/h (60 mph). Power outages significantly increased throughout Tuesday, affecting almost 250 000 customers — or about 715 000 people — by 17:00 PDT, a sharp rise from 9 000 outages reported at 08:00 PDT. The Bay Area, which experienced particularly strong winds, accounts for the majority of these outages. Contra Costa County reported 43 812 customers without power, followed by San Mateo County with 42 087, San Francisco County with 34 899, and Santa Clara County with 22 049. Air travel has been severely disrupted due to gusty storms in San Francisco. San Francisco International Airport reported almost 100 cancellations and hundreds of delays. A ground stop was issued on Tuesday afternoon, lasting until 17:30 PDT, with a ground delay remaining in effect until 00:59 PDT on March 23. The average delay, attributed to high winds, was 253 minutes, or over four hours. According to the California Highway Patrol, a man operating a sewer truck in Portola Valley, a community in the Bay Area, lost his life after a tree fell on the vehicle. The San Bernardino Mountains have experienced heavy snowfall in recent months, causing significant challenges for local communities. Lake Arrowhead, California, is still recovering from powerful snowstorms in late February and early March that claimed at least 13 lives and isolated several communities. The AccuWeather WinterCast forecasts a strong likelihood of Lake Arrowhead receiving an additional 102-203 mm (4-8 inches) of snow by 22:00 PDT on March 22, further complicating the situation for residents still grappling with snow-clearing efforts and potential food shortages. The highly anomalous low-pressure system that brought hurricane-force wind gusts, heavy rain, and record low sea-level pressure for the month of March across the San Francisco area on Tuesday into early Wednesday will gradually weaken today, the National Weather Service said.

EF-1 tornado hits Montebello, California — the strongest tornado to impact Los Angeles Metro area since March 1983 - An EF-1 tornado hit the city of Montebello near Los Angeles, southern California on Wednesday, March 22, 2023, ripping roofs off buildings, throwing cars around, and injuring 1 person. This is the strongest tornado to impact the Los Angeles Metro area since March 1983, the National Weather Service (NWS) said. It is also the second tornado to hit California within 24 hours. “A small tornado briefly touched down in an industrial park and warehouse district in Montebello in the late morning hours (LT) of Wednesday, March 22, 2023. Seventeen structures were damaged, eleven significantly. A tree was uprooted and a power pole was snapped with the transformer ripped off,” NWS said after conducting a survey. The tornado primarily impacted an industrial warehouse and a commercial business district. The roofing material of the warehouses consisted of wood frame structures with plywood and roofing material, which collapsed under the tornado’s force. Almost a total roof collapse occurred in one of the buildings, and an HVAC (Heating, Ventilation, and Air Conditioning) unit was ejected from the top of the structure. Skylights were broken, and wood cross beams collapsed. Cars in the area were damaged, with windows shattered. Additionally, a healthy pine tree with a one-foot trunk diameter was also uprooted in the area. The tornado’s estimated peak wind was 177 km/h (110 mph), and its path length was 0.68 km (0.42 miles), with a path width of 46 m (50 yards). The tornado was on the ground for approximately 2 – 3 minutes, causing one injury in the area. This is the second tornado to hit California within 24 hours. On the evening of Tuesday, March 21, a narrow EF-0 tornado briefly touched down in the Sandpiper Village mobile home park in Carpinteria. It damaged around 25 mobile home units and there was minor tree damage to the cemetery adjacent to the mobile home park.

Bomb cyclone kills at least 5 in California as storm batters state with tornadoes, strong winds -- At least five people were killed when a bomb cyclone slammed into California on Tuesday, bringing tornadoes, destructive wind gusts, heavy rain, flash flooding, tornadoes and mountain snow. A driver was killed by a falling tree near Portola Valley in unincorporated San Mateo County, according to a report from KTVU FOX 2 San Francisco. The California Highway Patrol said the man was in a work van traveling through San Mateo when a eucalyptus tree fell onto the vehicle, according to KTVU. The driver of that vehicle received minor injuries, but the passenger died in the incident. The San Francisco mayor's office confirmed an additional two people died in storm-related incidents. "Tragically, two people lost their lives, which is a grave reminder of how serious and dangerous this storm became," Mayor London Breed said. FOX 2 KTVU reported that a falling tree in Oakland crushed a man in a tent, killing him. In San Francisco 2 more people were critically injured by falling trees. A San Francisco police sergeant was badly injured after a tree fell on his car. The National Weather Service confirmed two tornadoes in Southern California on Tuesday and Wednesday. A Montebello business owner tells FOX Weather correspondent Max Gorden he’s lucky to be alive after an apparent tornado ripped through the California city. Survey crews confirmed that an EF-0 tornado damaged several mobile homes in Carpenteria in Santa Barbara County on Tuesday. Winds blew up to 75 mph in this twister. On Wednesday, an EF-1 tornado struck Montebello, California, southeast of downtown Los Angeles around 11 a.m. Aerial video shows the roofs of several warehouses peeled off. The Los Angeles Fire Department confirmed one injury. The city says that 17 buildings were damaged and 11 of them red tagged. This was the first March tornado for Los Angeles since 1992. Heavy rain that fell on already-saturated soil caused numerous reports of flash flooding and landslides. At the same time, strong winds brought down trees across the region, knocking out power to more than 250,000 utility customers, according to PowerOutage.US. The majority of those outages were in the San Francisco Bay Area. Strong winds gusting as high as 77 mph in San Francisco were reported, and the strong winds blew over vehicles on the Bay Bridge on Tuesday. Oakland, right across the bay from San Francisco, reported a peak wind gust of 74 mph.

Tornado causes widespread damage in Mississippi - A tornado caused widespread damage as it rolled through parts of Mississippi late Friday, with wind gusts of up to 80 mph and hail the size of golf balls, said the National Weather Service in Jackson, Miss. The towns of Rolling Fork and Silver City were significantly affected, the agency said on Twitter. An eyewitness said the damage to Silver City, a town of about 300 people, was “devastating,” while the Sharkey county coroner told ABC News that at least seven people were killed. Houses collapsed and multiple people suffered injuries, said Stan Dorroh, a member of North Mississippi Storm Chasers & Spotters. “The images will haunt me forever,” he said. WJTV, a television station in Jackson, cited police as saying two children had been rushed to the hospital in critical condition. State emergency officials rushed search and rescue teams to Sharkey and Humphreys counties, which bore the brunt of the storm. Thousands remained without power, WLBT reported. Videos from social media showed debris from destroyed homes, uprooted trees and overturned vehicles. In Rolling Fork, neighbors and volunteers went door to door in search of trapped people, AccuWeather reported. Patchy cellphone signal had complicated the efforts, it said. “We have activated medical support — surging more ambulances and other emergency assets for those affected. Search and rescue is active,” Mississippi Gov. Tate Reeves (R) said on Twitter. The tornado lifted debris above 30,000 feet, Samuel Emmerson, a member of the radar research group at the University of Oklahoma said on Twitter, describing it as an “extremely high-caliber” tornado. As the tornado tore through several towns along its long path, the local weather service office issued multiple tornado emergencies. The weather department late Friday issued a tornado emergency for several towns in Miss, including Amory, Smithville and Hatley, calling it a “life-threatening situation.”

Unseasonal rain and hailstorm cause significant crop loss in Prayagraj, Uttar Pradesh - Prayagraj District, the most populous district in the Uttar Pradesh state of India, has been hit by heavy unseasonal rain and hailstorm that devastated the farming community on March 19 and again on March 21, 2023. The natural calamity has caused extensive damage to crops of over 10 030 farmers in the region. According to the initial findings of the survey, crops worth Rs 6.86 crore ($900 000 USD) have been destroyed due to the unseasonal rain and hailstorm on March 19. The loss is expected to increase manifold owing to the rain and hailstorm that hit the region again on March 21. Officials reported that the rain and hailstorm greatly affected rural areas of Lalapur, Jasra, Gauhaniya, Bara, Chidi, and Shankargarh areas of the trans-Yamuna region. The assessment made by the agriculture department revealed that 30 to 50% of the crops of oilseeds and pulses along with wheat had been destroyed. The mango blossoms were also hit, which is expected to impact the production of mangoes this year. The loss of crops and damage caused to the farming community is a significant setback to the district’s economy. The district administration has promised to take the necessary steps to provide relief to the farmers.

Record-breaking Tropical Cyclone “Freddy” left at least 582 people dead, hundreds missing - Tropical Cyclone “Freddy” has left at least 582 people dead and hundreds missing in Malawi, Mozambique, Madagascar, Zimbabwe, and Mauritius. The worst affected was Malawi where Freddy caused catastrophic floods, leaving at least 476 people dead and 349 missing, as of March 20, 2023. Very Intense Tropical Cyclone Freddy has made history as the longest-lasting and highest-ACE-producing tropical cyclone ever recorded worldwide. The storm traversed the southern Indian Ocean for over five weeks between February and March 2023, leaving a trail of destruction in its path. Freddy was the fourth named storm of the 2022/23 Australian region cyclone season, and the second very intense tropical cyclone of the 2022/23 South-West Indian Ocean cyclone season. According to the Department of Disaster Management Affairs of Malawi (DoDMA), as of March 19, the floods caused by Tropical Cyclone “Freddy” have caused 476 fatalities, with 349 people still missing, 918 people injured, and nearly 491 000 people displaced across the Southern Region. A number of these displaced people are being housed in 533 accommodation centers. 86 fatalities were reported in Mozambique, 17 in Madagascar, 2 in Zimbabwe, and 1 in Mauritius, as of March 20. At the time of the storm, Mozambique and Malawi were already grappling with a widespread Cholera outbreak, which was exacerbated by severe flooding. The situation in Malawi is expected to worsen in the coming days, with the weather forecast indicating that heavy rainfall with locally very heavy rainfall is expected over the whole country within the next 24 hours. This will likely lead to further flooding and landslides, exacerbating the already dire situation. The Malawian government has issued a warning to residents in affected areas to take necessary precautions and follow instructions from local authorities to ensure their safety. The government has also requested assistance from international organizations and partners to help mitigate the impacts of the disaster.

Heavy rain in northeastern Brazil leads to deadly floods and landslides - Heavy rain affecting northeastern Brazil last week has caused flooding and landslides in at least 5 municipalities of Ceará State, resulting in the deaths of three people and the displacement of dozens. The landslides destroyed homes and forced residents to evacuate, while local governments have declared a state of emergency. The neighboring state of Maranhão has also declared a state of emergency for 20 municipalities. Ceará State in northeastern Brazil has experienced heavy rainfall leading to flooding and landslides in at least 5 municipalities. The situation has resulted in three fatalities and dozens of people displaced from their homes. According to reports, the landslide caused by heavy rainfall in Aratuba destroyed a home and killed three members of the same family on March 16, 2023. The Municipal Prefecture of Aratuba issued a statement expressing regret over the incident and promised full support for the families of the victims and survivors. A three-day period of mourning was declared, and the state governor Elmano de Freitas visited the area on March 17 to assess the situation. Due to the flood and landslide threats, over 30 families in Itapipoca City were pre-emptively evacuated from their homes on March 17. Local governments in Guaramiranga, Itapipoca, Missão Velha, Aratuba and Uruburetama have declared a state of emergency. Meanwhile, in the neighboring state of Maranhão, 20 municipalities have been declared under a state of emergency due to heavy rainfall. Reports have indicated that several communities were left isolated after flooding along the Pericumã River near Pinheiro on March 16. Flooding was also reported in Imperatriz near the Tocantins River.

Flood risk will be ten times higher in many places within 30 years: Study -- After the North Sea Flood of 1953, it took nearly 45 years to finalize the Delta Works. If we want to protect The Netherlands against sea-level rise, we shouldn't wait too long. But how much time do we have left? An international team of researchers from Utrecht University, Deltares, and NIOZ, among others, devised a new method to calculate when we can expect an increase in flood probability in a specific area. The calculations show that within 30 years, the estimated probability of flooding will be 10 times higher in more than a quarter of the places studied. The researchers published their results in Nature Climate Change. Sea-level rise is causing extremely high water levels to become more frequent. This is a problem because floods often result from extremely high water during a storm. So, the probability of disasters is increasing as the Earth continues to warm. However, researchers did not yet know when to expect an increase in flood probability in specific places. That's because protection levels vary quite a bit around the world (see below). So, in this study, researchers devised a new method of calculation. They then applied this method to nearly 500 places around the world. The calculations show that in more than a quarter of those places, the estimated probability of flooding will be 10 times higher within the next 30 years. Estimates are used because the probability of flooding is not exactly known at all places. The increase is most rapid in central America, southern Europe, South Africa and parts of Asia and Australia. To counteract this increased risk, coastal defenses will have to be adjusted in time. "Generally, this is bad news," says Tim Hermans, a climate researcher at Utrecht University, "because in some places there is little time left to take adaptive measures." A place also included in the calculations is the Dutch province of North Holland. The standard for the coastal defenses near the city of Den Helder is a probability of flooding at a water level that now occurs only once every thousand years. The new method shows that in the year 2116, this water level will occur 100 times more often on average due to sea-level rise. The probability of flooding near Den Helder therefore becomes much higher. Hermans adds, "We have to take into account that this point could even be reached in the year 2067. This is because uncertainties of the observed water levels and the expected sea-level rise are included in the calculations."

Scientists calculate more than 3,000 billion tons of ice lost from Antarctic ice sheet over 25 years - Scientists have calculated that the fastest changing Antarctic region—the Amundsen Sea Embayment—has lost more than 3,000 billion tons of ice over a 25-year period. If all the lost ice was piled on London, it would stand more than 2 km tall—or 7.4 times the height of the Shard. If it were to cover Manhattan, it would stand at 61 km—or 137 Empire State Buildings placed on top of one another. Twenty major glaciers form the Amundsen Sea Embayment in West Antarctica, which is more than four times the size of the U.K., and they play a key role in contributing to the level of the world's oceans. So much water is held in the snow and ice, that if it were to all to drain into the sea, global sea levels could increase by more than one meter. The research, led by Dr. Benjamin Davison at the University of Leeds, calculated the "mass balance" of the Amundsen Sea Embayment. This describes the balance between mass of snow and ice gain due to snowfall and mass lost through calving, where icebergs form at the end of a glacier and drift out to sea. When calving happens faster than the ice is replaced by snowfall, then the Embayment loses mass overall and contributes to global sea level rise. Similarly, when snowfall supply drops, the Embayment can lose mass overall and contribute to sea level rise. The results show that West Antarctica saw a net decline of 3,331 billion tons of ice between 1996 and 2021, contributing more than nine millimeters to global sea levels. Changes in ocean temperature and currents are thought to have been the most important factors driving the loss of ice.

Most extensive sandstorm of the year hits Beijing and surrounding provinces, China - The Watchers (satellite video) Beijing and several other provinces in China were hit by the most extensive sandstorm of the year so far on Wednesday, March 22, 2023, causing thick clouds of sand to significantly reduce visibility and increase air pollution to hazardous levels. The high winds and dust turned the sky a glaring tangerine color, reducing visibility to less than a few hundred meters in some areas. Forecasters said the sandstorms, caused by changes in wind flow carrying loose particles across the largely arid region, are expected to gradually move south and weaken. However, the impact on air pollution is significant, and authorities have noted that the pollution is largely caused by PM10 particles, which can be inhaled and aggravate a range of health issues, including respiratory problems. On Wednesday, the weather service issued a yellow warning (2 of 4) for dust across the north and northwest regions for 24 hours, with Beijing also receiving a yellow sandstorm warning. sandstorm china march 22 2023 0610z Image credit: JMA/NOAA/CIRA, Zoom Earth, The Watchers. Acquired at 06:10 UTC on March 22, 2023 Over the past days, the city has experienced sand and dust storms that have increased pollution levels drastically. On Wednesday, Beijing recorded an air quality index of 500, putting the pollution level at 6, which is considered very hazardous to human health, according to the Beijing Ecological Environment Monitoring Center. Some unofficial readings recorded the index twice that of the official reading. Beijing regularly faces dust storms in March and April due to its proximity to the Gobi desert, as well as deforestation throughout northern China. The current storm is “the most extensive of the year so far,” according to the national weather service. With the health risks posed by the sandstorm, residents are being urged to take precautions to protect themselves and their families from the hazardous air pollution.

Sonic boom reported after meteor explodes over western Canada - A bright fireball exploded over western Canada at 06:23 UTC on March 18, 2023. The meteor was reported to be close to the ground when it lit up the sky, appearing like a bolt of lightning. According to reports, witnesses heard the explosion caused by the meteor, which prompted some to initially confuse it with an explosion. The American Meteor Society (AMS) received 9 reports from users in Alberta in Saskatchewan and 3 videos. It reported that the fireball was moving in a southerly direction over Saskatchewan and Alberta when flames began appearing in the sky around 12:30 LT (06:30 UTC) on March 18. An Edmonton woman, who was driving home late at night, described the event in a report to the American Meteor Society, stating: “All of a sudden, I see a bright orange object falling from the sky. I do not think it was a meteor.” Similarly, a man from Vera, Saskatchewan, posted his account of the incident on social media, stating: “It was more like an explosion that lit up the sky…from the center outwards.” Another man from Swanson, Saskatchewan, described the event as a “sonic boom like thunder nearby,” adding that he heard a “ba ba boom sound, 30 seconds after flash.” Doorbell videos captured by witnesses showed the fireball nearing treetops on the horizon before it exploded. The resulting flash of light was described as resembling a full moon for a brief time. (videos)

Asteroid 2023 DZ2 to fly past Earth at 0.4 LD on March 25 — the largest since September 16, 2021 - A newly-discovered asteroid designated 2023 DZ2 will safely fly past Earth at a distance of 0.4 LD / 0.00117 AU ( 175 029 km / 108 758 miles) from the center of our planet at 19:51 UTC on March 25, 2023. 2023 DZ2 was first observed at La Palma Observatory, Canary Islands, Spain on February 27, 2023 — 26 days before its close approach. Its estimated diameter is between 43 – 95 m (141 – 311 feet) and it belongs to the Apollo group of asteroids. This is the 17th known asteroid to fly past Earth within 1 lunar distance since the start of the year and the 5th so far this month. It is also the largest asteroid to fly past us since 2021 SG on September 16, 2021, and the ~21st largest Near-Earth Object to fly past us on record. If this asteroid had a trajectory that takes it toward Earth it would create a spectacular audio-visual experience and many of its pieces would survive the atmospheric entry and impact our surface. The damage it would cause depends on various factors, such as whether it hit land or water, its angle of entry, composition, and speed. Assuming a worst-case scenario, where the asteroid impacted a populated area, the effects could include a blast wave, thermal radiation, and the release of debris and ejecta into the atmosphere. The size of the impact crater would depend on the asteroid’s velocity and composition, as well as the nature of the impact surface. A 43 – 95 m (141 – 311 feet) asteroid could potentially create a crater with a diameter of approximately 160 – 500 m (524 – 1 640 feet). However, it’s important to note that this is a rough estimate, and the actual impact crater size could vary significantly depending on a number of factors. Asteroids of this size fly past us roughly once a decade. 2023 DZ2 is about 4 times larger than the Chelyabinsk asteroid of February 15, 2013. That object exploded in the air with a force estimated to be equivalent to 30 times the energy of the Hiroshima atomic bomb, causing a shockwave that shattered windows and damaged buildings in the Russian city of Chelyabinsk and the surrounding region. More than 1 500 people were injured, mostly from broken glass, but fortunately, there were no fatalities.

Coronal Hole '30 Times Earth's Size' Hurls Solar Plasma Towards Earth - NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory released a photo showing a massive coronal hole forming in the sun's atmosphere, ejecting a stream of fast-moving solar winds toward Earth. "The current coronal hole, the big one right now, is about 300,000 to 400,000 kilometers across," Alex Young, the associate director for science at NASA Goddard's Heliophysics Science Division, told Bussiness Insider. He said, "that's about 20-30 Earths lined up back-to-back." Young said coronal holes unleash solar winds that can travel between 500-800 km per second. He explained the coronal mass ejection would reach Earth by Friday. "We will probably start seeing the effects of the high-speed wind on March 24."When the high-speed wind reaches Earth, the particles and the magnetic field it carries will interact with Earth's magnetic field, effectively rattling it or like ringing a bell," he said. Space Weather website SolarHam said when the solar winds hit Earth, it will produce a moderate (G2) geomagnetic storm. Here's a visual of the CME's impacts on modern society. In addition to this week's geomagnetic storm risk, Sunspot Cycle 25 has already started and is anticipated to be active. This could spell trouble for the digital economy, as disruptions caused by solar flares may lead to economic harm.Last year, Elon Musk's satellite internet service Starlink lost 40 satellites after a geomagnetic storm knocked them out of orbit.

Unexpected G4 - Severe geomagnetic storm - A combination of factors led to unexpectedly strong geomagnetic storm levels on Thursday, March 23, and Friday, March 24, 2023. The storm reached G3 – Strong levels at 14:49 UTC on March 23 and escalated to G4 – Severe at 04:04 UTC on March 24. The precise cause of this geomagnetic storm is still under investigation, but it is possible that coronal mass ejections (CMEs) from March 20 to 21 played a role. This is the most intense geomagnetic storm in nearly 6 years. Geomagnetic storms of this intensity occur on average 100 times per solar cycle Initially, SWPC predicted that the arrival of a co-rotating interaction region (CIR) ahead of a recurrent, negative polarity coronal hole high-speed stream (CH HSS) would disturb the geomagnetic field, leading to G1 – Minor conditions on March 23. This disturbance, along with nearby transients, was expected to produce G2 – Moderate conditions on March 24. However, contrary to predictions, the geomagnetic field exhibited G3 – Strong levels on March 23 and G4 – Severe early on March 24. The unanticipated intensity of the geomagnetic storm may have resulted from a stealthy CME or a combination of events, including CMEs from March 20 and 21.

G3 – Strong geomagnetic storm potential impacts: The area of impact is primarily poleward of 50 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.

Induced Currents – Power system voltage irregularities possible, false alarms may be triggered on some protection devices.
Spacecraft – Systems may experience surface charging; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites and orientation problems may occur.
Navigation – Intermittent satellite navigation (GPS) problems, including loss-of-lock and increased range error may occur.
Radio – HF (high frequency) radio may be intermittent.
Aurora – Aurora may be seen as low as Pennsylvania to Iowa to Oregon.

G4 – Severe geomagnetic storm impacts: The area of impact is primarily poleward of 45 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.

Induced Currents – Possible widespread voltage control problems and some protective systems may mistakenly trip out key assets from the power grid. Induced pipeline currents intensify.
Spacecraft – Systems may experience surface charging; increased drag on low earth orbit satellites, and tracking and orientation problems may occur.
Navigation – Satellite navigation (GPS) degraded or inoperable for hours.
Radio – HF (high frequency) radio propagation sporadic or blacked out.
Aurora – Aurora may be seen as low as Alabama and northern California.

Auroras shine unusually far south amid strongest solar storm since 2017 - As soon as the sun set Thursday, extreme weather photographer Peter Forister excitedly headed for the hills. Forecasts had suggested that recent storming on the surface of the sun could set off auroras — brilliant dancing streaks of light, also known as the northern lights — in the Lower 48 states. For the first hour or so into his night, his camera picked up pretty but rather demure purple hues in the sky, which appeared just as a white haze to the naked eye.Then, within 30 seconds at around 11 p.m., the sky lit up with vibrant red and yellow streaks visible to the naked eye. Forister sprinted up a hill with his camera and pushed through bushes that scratched and tore up his legs, but “it didn’t matter,” he said. “It was so exciting.” Yet the light show wasn’t in an aurora hot spot such as Canada, Iceland or even the northern tier of the United States. This was in Shenandoah National Park in Virginia, 75 miles southwest of D.C.“It was an exceptional storm. It lasted for over 12 hours,” said Forister, who lives in Charlottesville. “Having it only half an hour from home and a show that was nearly comparable to the stuff I saw in Iceland was just absolutely crazy.”On Thursday night, a “severe” geomagnetic storm — rated a level four out of five by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) — brought vibrant, bright auroras as far south as Arizona, California, Oklahoma, Iowa, New Mexico and North Carolina, according to reports on Twitter. Some even reported seeing an another newly discovered aurora-like phenomenon called STEVE, or Strong Thermal Emission Velocity Enhancement.“We were not expecting that level of storm by any means,” said Bill Murtagh, program coordinator at NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center. “A lot of variables come into play. … It’s difficult to get people spun up for the aurora because so often things don’t work out much more often than they do.”Thursday night, he said, was the exception. The last time a severe “G4” level storm like this occurred was 2017.Auroras are generated during geomagnetic storms when energy and particles from the sun disturb Earth’s magnetosphere. Some particles travel along Earth’s magnetic field lines into the upper atmosphere, where they excite oxygen and nitrogen molecules and release photons of light.Auroras are commonly seen at higher latitudes, but the strength of the storm allowed people at mid-latitudes to see them as well. But the conditions that led to this storm were rare and “almost impossible to predict,” Murtagh said. “When the CME hit, the solar wind speed didn’t change much,” Murtagh said. “But what we did get was this kind of perfectly aligned magnetic cloud.” Murtagh explained: Think of the coronal mass ejection as a magnet shot out from the sun. That magnet now interacts with the Earth’s magnetic field. Like two bar magnets, the fields connected in such a way that “just opened things up.” “The [sun’s] magnetic field coupled perfectly with Earth’s magnetic field, and the consequence was severe storming and beautiful aurora extending down into the mid-latitudes,” he said. NASA solar physicist Alex Young agreed that this G4 storm was harder to predict than most. For one thing, the sun was shooting off several coronal mass ejections, but none of them looked as though they were headed for Earth. Intermixed with all of this activity, though, “a puff” appeared to come from the center of the sun and practically had a straight shot at Earth, he said. But it was jumbled, given the other activity, and not easily discernible in the data.

Global fire carbon emissions contribute to increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations worldwide - Global fires have widespread impacts on the global carbon cycle and atmospheric environment with immediate direct carbon emissions. Fire carbon emission has substantial spatiotemporal variabilities and contributes to the dynamics of global CO2 distributions and variances. Quantifying the impacts of fire carbon emissions on atmospheric CO2 concentrations is the basis for clarifying the carbon cycle in terrestrial ecosystems and a prerequisite for elucidating the carbon balance at global and regional scales. A research team led by Dr. Shi Yusheng from the Aerospace Information Research Institute (AIR) of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS) has quantified the impact of global fire carbon emissions on atmospheric CO2 concentrations through atmospheric transport model simulations, combined with ground-based and satellite observations validation. The study was published in Science of The Total Environment on March 15. The research team conducted a series of numerical simulations based on a global atmospheric chemical transport model to quantify the impact of global fire carbon emissions on atmospheric CO2 concentration changes at the grid scale. After validation, the simulation accuracy was improved (the root mean square error was reduced from 2.403 to 1.980 compared with the satellite observations). The results showed that the global average annual impact of fire carbon emissions on atmospheric CO2 concentration could reach 2.4 parts per million (ppm), and there were large seasonal variations. Su Mengqian, first author of the study, found that simulation using the Quick Fire Emissions Database (QFED) as the model priori biomass burning emission inventory had the best performance compared with the satellite and surface observations. The results also showed that the simulated CO2 concentrations were more sensitive to fire carbon emission inventories in southern South America and most areas of the Eurasian continent, and less sensitive in central Africa and Southeast Asia. "Fire is one of the key factors causing the increase of global atmospheric CO2 concentration and has a significant impact on global warming and climate change," said Dr. Shi. This study provides a new approach and method to finely quantify the impact of fire carbon emissions on atmospheric CO2 concentration changes, which can serve as a scientific basis for biomass burning control. It also provides guidance for the implementation of environmental policies such as ecological and environmental management and collaborative carbon reduction, which will help China reduce greenhouse gas emission in a more targeted manner and better respond to the "carbon peaking" and "carbon neutrality" policy goals.

Global warming undermines greenhouse gas sink function of pristine wetlands, shows study -- Wetlands occupy about 6% of the Earth's surface but store one-third of global soil organic carbon. Increasing evidence shows that climate warming is altering the function and service of wetland ecosystems. However, whether climate warming will stimulate wetlands to release more greenhouse gases (GHGs) is still under debate. A new study, published in Nature Climate Change on March 20 and led by researchers from the Institute of Atmospheric Physics of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, shows that pristine wetlands are currently a greenhouse gas sink, however, the greenhouse gas sink will be reduced by more than half (about -57%) in response to an average temperature increase of 1.5–2 °C. "In other words, warming undermines the mitigation potential of pristine wetlands despite achieving the Paris Agreement's goal of limiting the increase of global mean temperature between 1.5 and 2 °C above pre-industrial level," said Bao Tao, first author of the study. Whether pristine wetlands will act as a greenhouse gas source or sink under warming has been unclear because in-situ manipulative warming has yielded diverse wetland GHG emission responses. In this study, the researchers integrated data from 167 independent wetland sites with measured carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide responses to experimental warming. Their goal was to explore the GHG response to warming across regions and among different wetlands and plant types. They found that the difference in dominant plant functional types could well explain the changes in greenhouse gas exchange in different warming experiments. After warming, the sink of carbon dioxide increased in wetlands where vascular plants such as shrubs and graminoids dominated, while in wetlands where cryptogams such as mosses and lichens dominated, sources of carbon dioxide increased. Furthermore, warming promotes net methane emissions from wetlands regardless of the dominant plant functional type. Although nitrous oxide efflux from wetlands is usually low, warming significantly enhanced (by about 27%) nitrous oxide emissions from wetlands dominated by graminoids. Considering that the greenhouse effect of nitrous oxide is 298 times that of carbon dioxide over a span of 100 years, even a slight increase in nitrous oxide emission could make a non-negligible contribution to global warming. "We found that warming will promote the net emissions of methane and nitrous oxide in permafrost wetlands more remarkably than other regions, thereby exerting positive feedback on global warming," said Dr. Xu Xiyan, corresponding author of the study.

Leading climate scientists send the grimmest of warnings - Climate change is wreaking havoc on the planet, in some instances irreversibly, and the world isn’t reducing planet-warming pollution fast enough to stop it.That’s the blunt takeaway from the U.N. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, an international body made up of the world’s leading climate scientists. Its latest report on the science and consequences of global warming was seven years in the making, writes POLITICO’s E&E News reporter Chelsea Harvey.“The report clearly notes that the effects of climate change grow worse and worse with every little incremental bit of additional warming,” Chelsea told Power Switch. “So it’s imperative to reduce emissions as swiftly as possible in order to limit even worse outcomes in the future as much as we can.”The assessment sends a warning that the effects of climate change are already happening. And humanity is not on track to curb carbon pollution from fossil fuel production, agriculture and other sources enough to halt warming at 1.5 degrees Celsius, the most ambitious international target.In fact, at the rate the world is burning carbon, the 1.5 C threshold will likely arrive in the next decade. The world has already warmed 1 degree since the preindustrial era. Wildfires, floods, droughts and hurricanes are growing more severe. Sea levels are swelling as coastal communities and island nations face existential threats from encroaching waters.Intensifying droughts and agricultural disruptions are creating food and water insecurity. Infectious diseases are surging. And people around the world are increasingly being displaced by climate-fueled disasters.Human mortality rates from climate disasters were 15 times higher in highly vulnerable regions of the world, compared with more developed places, the report found. The authors’ message is clear that societies must take immediate — even radical — action to strip carbon pollution from every sector. This means overhauling just about every aspect of human life, Chelsea said. The report also emphasizes the need for nations to adapt, given that some climate impacts, like sea-level rise, are irreversible (well, for at least hundreds or thousands of years). Even more unsettling: Far too many scientific unknowns exist about how and when the most devastating impacts will hit, write POLITICO reporters Karl Mathiesen and Zia Weise.United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres said the report’s findings mean nations need to “massively fast-track climate efforts.” He called on the European Union as well as the United States and other wealthy countries to hit their climate targets by 2040 instead of 2050 in order to avert dangerous global warming, write POLITICO reporters Zia Weise and Federica Di Sario. This is a tall order. The United States, for example, isn’t even on track to meet its 2050 targets. And President Joe Biden just approved a massive oil project expected to release 280 million metric tons of carbon pollution into the atmosphere over 30 years.

UN climate report shows world is flying blind into the storm – TL;DR, global warming is bad and getting worse. But a sprawling assessment of tens of thousands of scientific papers on the state of the planet, released Monday, pointed to another unsettling truth: Scientists still don't have answers to many of the questions that will define how well the world copes with the worst of climate change. In its latest report, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) describes a world of long-foreseen impacts arriving now with shocking power. Human suffering — especially among the poor — will increase rapidly in the coming decades. The symbolic limit of 1.5 degrees Celsius will almost certainly be breached. But in many critical areas, IPCC scientists say the world is flying blind into the storm. By the time they publish their next report — at the end of this decade — there will be more clarity about where global temperatures will peak. Green policies will have triggered social and economic transformation, with major benefits — and major upheaval. That means there are still far too many unknowns to say with certainty how and when the most devastating impacts will hit.“Generally, science is still lagging policy,” said Piers Forster, an IPCC author and director of the Priestley International Centre for Climate at the University of Leeds.“We need a living laboratory mentality to test ideas in open and transparent ways to really learn about how to transform society. Otherwise, we’ll be going with technologies according to who shouts loudest rather than the best.”Extreme weather events of the past few years — including the 2022 heat wave that sent temperature records tumbling across much of Europe, and the floods that devastated Pakistan last year — have surprised some of the world's top climate scientists with just how far they sat outside the normal range.Experts still know relatively little about when and where these types of extreme climate events will happen. Or what happens when two events, like a drought and a heat wave, hit one place simultaneously. That's because scientists have tended to look at broader averages across regions, rather than the most intense extremes in specific locations.“We haven’t asked the models [to] come up with an outrageously high temperature number, like 50 degrees in Canada" — a mark reached during a heat wave in 2021 — "and work out how likely that is or if that's possible,” said Friederike Otto, an author of the IPCC report and senior lecturer at Imperial College London. “And I think that's why these are surprises.”As leaders look to contain the worst impacts of global warming, knowing where to concentrate efforts will be key.The IPCC classified between 3.3 billion to 3.6 billion people — almost half of the world's total population — as being among the most vulnerable, with people in the developing world hit hardest.

UN scientists warn drastic steps needed to prevent climate change catastrophe | PBS NewsHour -- Scientists warned that human-induced climate change is warming the planet to the point where it is causing irreversible damage in some parts of the world. The report was released by the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Climate Scientist Katharine Hayhoe of The Nature Conservancy joined Amna Nawaz to look at what can be done to change the direction the planet is headed. Scientists warned today that climate change is warming the planet to the point where it is causing irreversible damage in some parts of the worldThe new report from the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, or IPCC, found that, within a decade, the world is likely to miss its goal of holding global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius or 2.7 degrees Fahrenheit.If or when the planet reaches that level, scientists say Earth will pass tipping points that will lead to catastrophic environmental damage, including dangerous sea level rise, entire species going extinct, and even greater suffering in many nations, especially the poorest.U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said the time to act is now. “Humidity is on thin ice and that eyes is melting fast. The rate of temperature rise in the last half-century is the highest in 2,000 years. Concentrations of carbon dioxide are at their highest in at least two million years. The climate time bomb is ticking.” For a closer look at the report and what can be done to change the direction the planet is headed, I'm joined by Katharine Hayhoe, climate scientist at Texas Tech University and chief scientist for the Nature Conservancy. That is strong language from Antonio Guterres there, saying humanity is on thin ice, the climate time bomb is ticking. This is about as dire and urgent a report and a warning as we have heard. Why now? Katharine Hayhoe, Climate Scientist, Texas Tech University: It is completely justified. We scientists have been warning of the impacts of climate change on humans and all other life on this planet for decades. Yet our carbon emissions continue to rise. As the IPCC report says, the window of opportunity we have to make decisions that will lead us to a better future is closing rapidly.

What the IPCC really says about 1.5 C - The likely failure of the world’s most ambitious climate goal just went mainstream. Scientists have urged the world for nearly a decade to cap global warming at 1.5 degrees Celsius, beyond which the planet is expected to face increasingly catastrophic climate impacts. Now, they’re warning — in the starkest tones yet — that the world is all but certain to overshoot that threshold. That’s the message of a dire new report released on Monday by the U.N. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. “The finding is that almost irrespective of our emissions choices in the near term, we will probably reach 1.5 degrees in the first half of the next decade,” said Peter Thorne, a climate scientist at Maynooth University in Ireland and an author of the report. Previous U.N. reports have stressed the difficulties of achieving the 1.5 C goal, which requires swift and dramatic emissions reductions in nearly every aspect of society. But it’s only recently that IPCC scientists have begun to publicly acknowledge the near-certainty that the world will miss that target, at least temporarily. Now that overshoot appears all but inevitable, scientists used the IPCC report to reframe global perceptions about climate successes and failures. Rather than abandoning climate action due to missed goals, they’re stressing that every fraction of prevented global warming — even above 1.5 degrees — still makes a difference. Rapid climate action is more important now than ever, they said. The ways the world changes in the coming years “will be shaped by the choices we make starting right now,” said IPCC Chair Hoesung Lee. “So let’s hope we make the right choices, because the ones we make now and in the next few years will reverberate around the world for hundreds, even thousands, of years.” The new report is the final installment in a yearslong climate assessment the IPCC has been conducting since 2015, the same year the Paris climate agreement was adopted. It synthesizes the findings of six previous reports, all summarizing the latest scientific knowledge on the ways the Earth’s climate is changing and how people can halt global warming. The final report’s overarching conclusion is that climate change is dramatically reshaping the planet, and the world isn’t reducing greenhouse gas emissions fast enough to stop it.

The IPCC says we need to phase down fossil fuels, fast. Here’s how the US could do it. - On Monday, a panel of the world’s top climate scientists released a grave warning: Current policies are not enough to stave off the most devastating consequences of climate change. According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, or IPCC, climate pollution from the world’s existing coal, oil, and gas projects is already enough to launch the planet past 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) of warming, and world leaders must abandon up to $4 trillion in fossil fuels and related infrastructure by midcentury if they want to keep within safe temperature limits. Instead, rich countries like the United States are going in the opposite direction. Just last week, President Joe Biden approved ConocoPhillips’ Willow Project, a so-called “carbon bomb” that could add some 239 million metric tons of carbon emissions to the atmosphere, about as much as the annual emissions from 64 coal-fired power plants. A new report released this week, “An Economist’s Case for Restrictive Supply-Side Policies,” argues that bans, moratoria, and similar measures are sorely needed to keep the United States from extracting more fossil fuels. It highlights 10 policies that can complement clean energy investments to help the country achieve the goals of the IPCC while also prioritizing the health and economic security of America’s most vulnerable communities. “The IPCC shows that restrictive supply-side measures have to be part of the policy mix,” said Mark Paul, a Rutgers University professor and a coauthor of the report. “We actually need to stop extracting and burning fossil fuels, there’s just no way around it.” Until quite recently, most American economists and policymakers have focused on demand-side solutions to climate change — primarily a carbon price that would leave curbing greenhouse gas emissions up to market forces. Supply-side policies, on the other hand, are concerned with suppressing the amount of fossil fuels available for purchase. They come in two flavors: supportive and restrictive. Supportive supply-side policies include some of the tax credits and subsidies in the Inflation Reduction Act, theclimate spending law that Biden signed last year, which support renewable energy to displace fossil fuels. Restrictive policies more actively seek to constrain fossil fuel development. Some of the most aggressive policies recommended in the new report would use congressional authority to stop new fossil fuel projects, whether by banning new leases for extraction on federal lands and in federal waters or by outlawing all new pipelines, export terminals, gas stations, and other infrastructure nationwide. Other measures would use economic levers to restrict fossil fuel development. For example, taxing the fossil fuel industry’s windfall profits could curtail supply by making oil and gas production less profitable. Requiring publicly traded companies to disclose their climate-related financial risks could also accelerate decarbonization by making polluters without credible transition plans unattractive to investors. The benefit of these policies, Paul said, is that they can directly constrain carbon-intensive activities and therefore more certainly guarantee a reduction in climate pollution. That’s not the case with demand-side policies, where lawmakers have to hope that consumers’ behavior will lead to less fossil fuel being produced and burned. (The Inflation Reduction Act included some of these policies, like consumer subsidies for electric vehicles and other low-emissions technologies.)

Farmers' protest party win shock Dutch vote victory - A farmers' party has stunned Dutch politics, and is set to be the biggest party in the upper house of parliament after provincial elections. The Farmer-citizen movement (BBB) was only set up in 2019 in the wake of widespread farmers' protests. But with most votes counted they are due to win 15 of the Senate's seats with almost 20% of the vote. The BBB aims to fight government plans to slash nitrogen emissions harmful to biodiversity by dramatically reducing livestock numbers and buying out thousands of farms. But its appeal has spread rapidly beyond its rural heartland, on a populist platform that represents traditional, conservative Dutch social and moral values. Shocked by the scale of their success, Ms van der Plas told supporters that voters normally stayed at home if they lost faith in politics: "But today people have shown they can't stay at home any longer. We won't be ignored any more." A left-wing Green-Labour alliance is also on course to win 15 Senate seats, while Prime Minister Mark Rutte's four-party coalition is poised to fall back to 24 - down eight seats. Turnout in Wednesday's vote, estimated at 57.5%, was the highest for years and the biggest loser of the night was the far-right Forum for Democracy party. For rural voters, the main incentive for backing the BBB was to protest against cuts in nitrogen emissions, according to an Ipsos poll for public broadcaster NOS. But voters also turned out in force for the Greens, and environmental groups warned that the Netherlands' problems were not going away. "Restoring nature is just as necessary today and tomorrow as it was yesterday," tweeted Natuurmonumenten.

Why climate ‘doomers’ are replacing climate ‘deniers’ -- When Sean Youra was 26 years old and working as an engineer, he started watching documentaries about climate change. Youra, who was struggling with depression and the loss of a family member, was horrified by what he learned about melting ice and rising extreme weather. He started spending hours on YouTube, watching videos made by fringe scientists who warned that the world was teetering on the edge of societal collapse — or even near-term human extinction. Youra started telling his friends and family that he was convinced that climate change couldn’t be stopped, and humanity was doomed.In short, he says, he became a climate “doomer.”“It all compounded and just led me down a very dark path,” he said. “I became very detached and felt like giving up on everything.”That grim view of the planet’s future is becoming more common. Influenced by a barrage of grim U.N. reports — such as the onepublished by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change earlier this week — and negative headlines, a group of people believe that the climate problem cannot, or will not, be solved in time to prevent all-out societal collapse. They are known, colloquially, as climate “doomers.”And some scientists and experts worry that their defeatism — which could undermine efforts to take action — may be just as dangerous as climate denial.“It’s fair to say that recently many of us climate scientists have spent more time arguing with the doomers than with the deniers,” said Zeke Hausfather, a contributing author to the U.N. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and climate research lead at the payments company Stripe.There are different flavors of doomers. Some are middle-aged and have been influenced by outspoken scientists — like retired ecologist Guy McPherson — who claim that human extinction, or at least the breakdown of society, is imminent. (“I can’t imagine that there will be a human left on the Earth in 10 years,” McPherson has said.) These doomers drift toward conspiracy theories, sometimes claiming that the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change is downplaying the seriousness of the issue.McPherson said in an email that while he’s “no fan of extinction ... so called ‘green energy’ based on PV solar panels and wind turbines offers no way out of the ongoing climate emergency.”Others are young people, active on social media, who have become demoralized by years of negative headlines. “Since about 2019, I have believed that there is little to nothing we can do to reverse climate change on a global scale,” Charles McBryde, a TikToker, said in a video last year.The origins of doomism stretch back far — McPherson, for example, has been predicting the demise of human civilization for decades — but the mind-set seems to have become markedly more mainstream in the past five years. Jacquelyn Gill, a climate scientist at the University of Maine, says that in 2018 she started hearing different sorts of questions when she spoke at panels or did events online. “I started getting emails from people saying: ‘I’m a young person. Is there even a point in going to college? Will I ever be able to grow up and have kids?’” she said.

ND Petroleum Council president reacts to UN Climate Report– The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change recommends fossil fuel production decrease by two-thirds by 2035 — that’s according to a report from the Associated Press. North Dakota is the third-highest top oil-producing state in the U.S. after Texas and New Mexico, according to federal statistics.Ron Ness, the president of the North Dakota Petroleum Council, said the report is a scare tactic.Ness said it’s not economically feasible, and the scale needed to reach the goal is beyond ambitious.“Their claims are not justified. I would say around 85 percent of the U.S. daily energy needs are supplied by fossil fuel,” said Ness. The panel will release its 2023 full report at a later date.

House votes to block ESG-flavored investments, contracts at all levels of Kansas government - — Bipartisan frustration flourished during Kansas House debate on a bill requiring state and local governments to ignore environmental and social factors and focus exclusively on achieving the greatest financial return when making contract decisions and pension investments.Legislation approved Thursday by the House on a vote of 85-38 and forwarded to the Kansas Senate would amend state law to force the Kansas Public Employees Retirement System to concentrate on the fiduciary duty of maximizing monetary gain with a portfolio serving teachers and other government workers. The bill also would forbid the state, as well as cities, counties and school boards, from giving weight to environmental, social or governance criteria, or ESG, when signing contracts.“We’re seeing governments weaponize and use pension systems and government contracts to further their ideological agendas,” said Rep. Nick Hoheisel, a Wichita Republican. “Most folks in this chamber, at least on my side, believe we should invest public funds with the best return on investment possible.”House Minority Leader Vic Miller, D-Topeka, said the bill improperly restrained elected local government officials and would accomplish precisely what advocates claimed they were against.“What are we doing with this bill except inserting our own politics into the market?” Miller said.House Bill 2436 would make it illegal to give preference or to discriminate against specific businesses, including those engaged in nuclear, oil, coal or natural gas operations, agriculture production, forestry, mining, and firearm and ammunition manufacturing.The legislation in the House would block contracting and investing tied to ESG goals such as diversity by race, ethnicity, sex or sexual orientation. It also specified investments and contracts couldn’t be guided by analysis of whether companies assisted employees in obtaining an abortion or with gender assignment surgery.

Research finds improved wastewater treatment could lead to significant reduction in greenhouse gas emissions -- Research published in Environmental Research Letters has shown that methane emissions from urban areas are underestimated by a factor of three to four and that untreated wastewater may be a contributing factor. The study, "Investigating high methane emissions from urban areas detected by TROPOMI and their association with untreated wastewater," was led by Benjamin de Foy, Ph.D., professor of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences at Saint Louis University. The researchers found that methane emissions from the discharge of untreated wastewater are a major contributor to global methane emissions and that improving wastewater treatment in urban areas could lead to a significant reduction in greenhouse gas emissions, helping cities on a quest for carbon neutrality. "We estimate that reducing discharges of untreated wastewater could reduce global methane emissions by up to 5 to 10%," said de Foy. "This could also yield significant ecological and human benefits." The two largest contributors to climate change are carbon dioxide and methane. In 2021, global methane concentrations increased at the highest rates on record and current estimates of methane emissions inventory cannot explain recent trends. One method of evaluating methane emission is via satellite remote sensing, for example, with the TROPOspheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI) on board the Sentinel 5 Precursor satellite. This has been measuring methane and other air pollutants all around the world since November 2017. The research shows that methane emissions from urban areas may be underestimated by a factor of 3 to 4 in the Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research (EDGAR) greenhouse gas emission inventory. The study scaled the results to 385 urban areas worldwide with more than 2 million inhabitants each, suggesting that they could account for up to 22% of global methane emissions. The emission estimates of the 61 urban areas do not correlate with the total or sectoral EDGAR emission inventory. They do however correlate with estimated rates of untreated wastewater, varying from 33 kg of methane per person per year for cities with zero untreated wastewater to 138 kg of methane per person per year for the cities with the most untreated wastewater. The study looked at different scenarios for reducing emissions in the 61 urban areas, as well as for all areas with a population of more than 2 million. By reducing the emissions of the 33 cities with medium to high levels of untreated wastewater to the mean emissions of cities with zero to low untreated wastewater emissions, 2% of the worldwide emissions total could be cut. If all 61 cities reduced their emissions to the lowest rate, that would cut 6% of total worldwide methane emissions. The researchers' model points to untreated wastewater rather than other options, including natural gas leaks or older infrastructure, as a large share of overall methane emissions. "Our estimates of methane emissions suggest that there is methane formation in the environment as a result of the release of untreated wastewater which is much larger than the estimates in current inventories," said de Foy. "Some urban areas could reduce their emissions 50% or more by fully treating all their wastewater."

Regulator: CO2 pipelines safe, but have risks — Ahead of a key vote on a bill putting eminent domain restrictions on proposed carbon capture pipelines in Iowa, a federal regulator told lawmakers the projects are largely safe, but are not without risks. Linda Daugherty — an administrator at the federal Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration, a division of the U.S. Department of Transportation that regulates hazardous liquid pipelines — told lawmakers the agency works aggressively to regulate the projects and that leaks, though they happen, are rare. “The actual number of incidents that have impacted people, it's very rare,” Daugherty told the House Environmental Protection Committee on Tuesday. Of 101 reported pipeline failures since 2001, one person required hospitalization as a result, she said. Still, she said, pipelines are not without risk. In large quantities, carbon dioxide can be an asphyxiant. That was the case in 2020, when a pipeline ruptured, dropping a cloud of carbon dioxide onto the small town of Satartia, Miss., prompting the evacuation of more than 200 people and requiring dozens to seek medical attention. That incident prompted the federal body to update its rules governing CO2 pipelines, including rules related to emergency preparedness and response. The new rules are expected to be finalized within the next two years. Carbon dioxide pipelines are a flashpoint in this legislative session, galvanizing a coalition of landowners opposed to the use of eminent domain and environmental activists who contend the projects will be used to prop up fossil fuels without making a meaningful dent in carbon emissions.

If Iowa blocks CO2 pipelines, would the state lose out on tax credit gold rush? -If Iowa lawmakers pass legislation blocking carbon dioxide pipelines, the pipelines still will move forward in other states, leaving Iowa out of a tax credit gold rush and forcing Iowa farmers to ship their corn out of state, according to the Iowa Renewable Fuels Association.“If you’re not allowed to participate, your economic picture changes,” said Monte Shaw, the group’s executive director, during a news conference Monday.The group, which represents Iowa’s 53 ethanol and biodiesel plants, released results of a study Monday on the economic impact on Iowa farmers if ethanol plants close because they can’t compete for new federal tax credits available to companies reducing carbon dioxide emissions. The study, conducted by Decision Innovation Solutions for the association, says Iowa’s ethanol industry will take a $10 billion hit if CO2 pipeline projects fail to advance in Iowa. Three proposed projects would gather CO2 from ethanol plants, ship it through pipeline and store it underground at sites in Illinois and North Dakota.If up to 75 percent of Iowa’s ethanol plants go out of business — as the study predicts — Iowa corn growers would have to pay 35 cents more per bushel to transport corn out of state. That’s $35,000 more a year for a farmer with 500 acres of corn, at 200 bushels per acre.“Likely that corn will have to be stored longer and travel much more distance to find an equitable market,” saidDavid Miller, an agricultural economist with Decision Innovation Solutions who used to work for the Iowa Farm Bureau Federation. The study’s findings are based on the assumption CO2 pipelines would be approved in Iowa’s neighboring states, but that isn’t at all certain. Pipelines also have faced opposition from citizen groups and governing boards in Illinois and Minnesota.

Crypto Is Mostly Over. Its Carbon Emissions Are Not. - At this point, for most of us, cryptocurrency seems like nothing more than a fad. After the FTX bankruptcy and broader crypto crash last year, basically all of the celebrities who were promoting crypto have gone silent. “MiamiCoin,” hyped by Miami Mayor Francis Suarez as a new source of income for the city, is now worthless. The Wild West days of the industry may be over. Recently, the head of the SEC warned crypto firms to “do their work within the bounds of the law” or face enforcement actions. Lots of people lost money in the crash, but from the planet’s perspective, the industry’s downfall is good news: The computing power fueling the crypto boom was so substantial that it was causing substantial greenhouse-gas emissions.And yet crypto’s greenhouse-gas emissions are still shockingly high, according to an industry tracker run by the University of Cambridge. The tracker focuses on bitcoin, the cryptocurrency with by far the largest market share, and estimates that at its current rate of “mining” new coins, bitcoin will release about 62 megatons of “carbon-dioxide equivalent” each year—about as much as the entire country of Serbia emitted in 2019. That’s up from about 43 megatons a year in December, and just slightly below the all-time peak of nearly 74 in May 2021. Many people who’ve invested in crypto tend to have a lot of sunk costs, whether digital wallets bulging with various coins, tokens, or expensive physical setups designed to make more. Even now that the boom times are over, they have no reason to stop.Mining bitcoin does not involve actually digging anything out of the ground—unless you count the fossil fuel that often powers it. The process involves using heavy-duty computers to grind through trillions of calculations, solving equations to create virtual coins. The method is known as “proof of work.” Once upon a time, bitcoin mining was something that people did if they had a couple of spare computers they wanted to put to work. Over time, it’s taken more and more computing power to unlock a single coin; now most mining is done in large-scale operations using purpose-built mining rigs.And it is America’s problem now. After China clamped down on crypto mining in 2021, such computing work increased in the United States. Miners set up shop in communities with low energy prices. And owners of unprofitable power-generation infrastructure, such as waste -coal-burningpower plants, opened up crypto-mining operations to create another revenue stream. These companies have put a lot of money into their hardware and their physical space, and they will continue mining until they are actively losing money. A recent federal investigation in Colorado found crypto mining powered by gas wells on public-lease lands, creaming energy off before it hit the grid and converting it to crypto without paying any royalties. The report noted that because the generators and rigs are usually on trailers, the entire operation can be moved quickly, so miners can stay ahead of government oil and gas inspectors. Other “behind-the-meter” operations are physically located at power plants. The natural-gas-fired Greenidge Generation Station, on the shores of Seneca Lake in upstate New York, opened a massive bitcoin-mining operation plugged right into the plant, which in 2021 consumed the bulk of the electricity it produced. Tapping into energy before it hits the grid is just one way bitcoin miners keep costs down; they’ll seek out and exploit any cheap source of energy.

Biden to create new national monuments in Texas, Nevada - President Biden on Tuesday designated two new national monuments, making nearly 514,000 acres off-limits to development as part of his pledge to protect 30 percent of U.S. lands and waters by 2030. The president signed proclamations to protect Castner Range, a former military training and testing site in El Paso, and more than 500,000 acres around Avi Kwa Ame (ah-VEE-kwah-may), a sacred tribal site in southern Nevada, according to the White House. The Washington Post reported in November that Biden would safeguard the vast expanse in Nevada using his authority under the 1906 Antiquities Act. It is the largest area protected so far in Biden’s presidency.Biden, in an announcement at Interior Department headquarters, said the moves are part of the administration’s efforts to protect wildlife while slashing planet-warming emissions by preventing mining and oil drilling on public lands. They follow a flurry of conservation announcements from the White House in recent weeks, including one banning oil and gas leasing in U.S. waters in the Arctic Ocean. “We’re protecting the heart and the soul of our national pride,” Biden said in a speech that drew repeated applause from a crowd of conservation advocates. “We’re protecting pieces of history and telling our story.”The designations come as Biden faces intense criticism from environmentalists over the administration’s approval this month of a major oil drilling project in Alaska. In a sign of these tensions, climate activists outside the Interior Department protested the Willow oil project on Tuesday even as Biden announced the new national monuments at a conservation summit with tribal leaders inside the building.The Fort Mojave and 11 other tribes consider Avi Kwa Ame a central part of their creation story and the site from which their ancestors emerged. Environmental groups also have supported the designation, saying it will help preserve critical habitat for the desert tortoise and other species.The proclamation will render about 507,000 acres — spanning almost the entire triangle at the bottom of the Nevada map — off-limits to mining and other kinds of development. It also will prevent renewable energy projects from breaking ground there, although administration officials have argued that the monument will not undermine Biden’s clean-energy agenda.

The feds have a low-carbon shopping list. It’s global. - Climate change could soon be priced into everything the federal government buys, from cement to power to office space. The Biden administration’s upcoming changes to federal acquisition regulations aim to shrink the U.S. government’s carbon footprint. But they may also prompt companies to reduce emissions from their own operations and from suppliers as they vie for a share of the hundreds of billions of dollars in government contracts Washington doles out each year. It’s a market signal that could be felt worldwide, experts say. “When you consider the purchasing power of the federal government, it has the potential to radically shape supply chains globally,” said Nicole Darnall, a professor at Arizona State University and the director of the Sustainable Purchasing Research Initiative. “While the primary source of those contracts is going to be a U.S. company, they’re sourcing their product inputs from all over the world.” President Joe Biden signaled his intent early on in his term to use the federal government’s status as the world’s biggest purchaser as a tool to combat climate change. But his May 2021 executive order on “climate-related financial risks” was overshadowed by other priorities, like last year’s successful quest to enact a climate bill and EPA’s coming regulatory assault on carbon emissions. Biden’s executive order tasked the General Services Administration, the Department of Defense and NASA to amend federal acquisition regulation, or FAR, to highlight the climate performance of would-be contractors. The plan is a one-two punch for climate procurement. The administration has already proposed a rule that would require larger federal suppliers to publicly disclose their emissions and climate-related financial risks, and to set reduction targets. That will be followed this spring by a rule “requiring the social cost of greenhouse gas emissions to be considered in procurement decisions and, where appropriate and feasible, give preference to bids and proposals from suppliers with a lower social cost of greenhouse gas emissions.” The three agencies, which make up what is known as the FAR Council, have already done their homework for the first requirement. Last November — as top Biden officials were at the U.N. climate summit in Egypt — the council proposed a tweak to procurement regulations. The updated rule would require contractors that receive at least $7.5 million from the federal government to inventory and disclose greenhouse gas emissions from their own operations and from the energy they use — known as Scope 1 and 2 emissions. The same rule would create additional requirements for companies with contracts totaling $50 million or more. Those “major” contractors would have to tally and report emissions from their suppliers, known as Scope 3 emissions. The proposed rule would also require them to develop net-zero emissions goals that align with the temperature goals of the Paris Agreement, and to get those goals validated by a voluntary scientific integrity body known as the Science-Based Targets initiative.The proposal has much in common with a Securities and Exchange Commission draft rule for securities, which would force companies to calculate and disclose their climate-related costs (Climatewire, Feb. 6). And like the SEC rule, the procurement proposal is controversial. The law firm DLA Piper LLC analyzed more than 250 public commentssubmitted through January on the rule and found that most sought tweaks to the rule or opposed it outright.Iowa Sen. Joni Ernst, the top Republican on the Senate Small Business and Entrepreneurship Committee, said the rule could burden small businesses that lack the staffing and analytic capabilities to inventory and report their emissions. Those firms may be forced to hire consultants and pass those costs on to the taxpayer, she argued in a letter to the FAR Council.

Falling Lithium Prices Are Making Electric Cars More Affordable - Lithium, the common ingredient in almost all electric-car batteries, has become so precious that it is often called white gold. But something surprising has happened recently: The metal’s price has fallen, helping to make electric vehicles more affordable.Since January, the price of lithium has dropped nearly 20 percent, according to Benchmark Minerals, even as sales of electric vehicles have soared. Cobalt, another important battery material, has fallen by more than half. Copper, essential to electric motors and batteries, has slipped about 18 percent, even though U.S. mines and copper-rich countries like Peru are struggling to increase production.The sharp moves have confounded many analysts who predicted that prices would stay high, or even climb, slowing the transition to cleaner forms of transportation, an essential component of efforts to limit climate change.Instead, the drop in commodity prices has made it easier for carmakers to cut prices for electric vehicles. This month, Tesla lowered the prices of its two most expensive cars, the Model S sedan and Model X sport utility vehicle, by thousands of dollars.That followed cuts in January by Tesla to its more affordable Model 3 and Model Y, and by Ford Motor to its Mustang Mach-E. The average price of an electric vehicle in the United States fell $1,000 in February compared with January, according to Kelley Blue Book. “For electric vehicles, the major roadblock is cost,” The falling price of lithium, he said, “is going to promote E.V. sales.” Some analysts said the falling price of lithium was caused by short-term factors like slowing sales growth in Europe and China after subsidies for electric car purchases expired. But other industry experts said the drop suggested that new mines and processing plants were solving the lithium problem sooner than many analysts had thought was possible.

Biden ‘EV revolution’ delayed as utilities, carmakers await critical IRS guidance on Inflation Reduction Act - Labor, equity and domestic content rules in the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act must not make it too complicated for electric vehicle buyers or force cumbersome sourcing changes on carmakers, stakeholders said.With the IRA’s expanded tax credit and funding, it can move EVs “into the fast lane” by accelerating emergence of a U.S. supply chain and charging infrastructure network, a January Energy Innovation reportfound.The IRA, along with the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act, provides “nearly 30 times” the total EV funding in all previous federal programs, Atlas Public Policy found in September 2022. But current rules include complexities on tax credit eligibility that could “discourage consumers and EV industry investments,” said Atlas Public Policy Founder Nick Nigro. And “eligibility will be more complicated when it includes requirements for battery component and critical battery material sourcing,” he added.Clarity is needed, according to the more than 880 stakeholder filings with the Treasury Department’s Internal Revenue Service requesting guidance on how to implement aspects of the IRA, including comments from Ford, Dow and Samsung, .IRS guidance on the IRA can create “a new future for U.S. transportation” if it “balances the needs of drivers, the EV industries, and the intent of the law,” said Electrification Coalition Vice President of Policy Katherine Stainken. “It is likely to be complicated but months of delay will mean little against decades of transformation,” she said.Treasury must meet the law’s intent to renew the U.S. auto industry, policy analysts said. That will require rules for carmakers to identify and validate the complexities of battery component and critical mineral sourcing in ways that are simple for car buyers to understand, which is a challenging conundrum, stakeholders agreed.The IRA’s key feature in support of EVs is $12.5 billion to extend and expand the up to $7,500 federal tax credit for EV buyers,Environmental and Energy Study Institute data showed. But its domestic sourcing and labor requirements will be much more complicated than today’s domestic vehicle assembly obligations, stakeholders agreed.

Study: Workplace EV charging could cut need for more power plants — Thorough planning of EV charging station placement, specifically with a greater emphasis on workplace charging, could cut the need for more power plants, according to a new MIT study.Published in the journal Cell Reports Physical Science, the study uses data from New York City and Dallas to counter the narrative that an influx of electric cars will create massively higher electricity demand and necessitate more power plants. Researchers argue that smarter planning will both cut the need for additional power plants and utilize excess solar capacity.Instead of assuming that most EV drivers will charge their cars at home in the early evening, after getting home from work, researchers call for additional workplace charging. This will take advantage of abundant solar generating capacity at mid-day instead of trying to tap into the grid in the early evening, when demand and peak loads tend to be higher. Home charging still has a place in this strategy, as long as drivers delay charging until later at night. As utilities and previous studies have emphasized, this pushes EV charging into periods of lower demand, utilizing excess grid capacity and potentially rewarding drivers with lower electricity rates.“Combining delayed home charging and workplace charging can be a particularly successful strategy,” researchers said in a statement, adding that decisions about charger locations should emphasize these two scenarios.

California will get EPA okay to speed transition to electric trucks - The Biden administration will approve new California rules to cut tailpipe pollution and phase out sales of diesel-burning trucks, according to three people briefed on the plans, a move that could jump-start the nation’s transition to electric-powered trucks and help communities harmed by diesel pollution. The Environmental Protection Agency intends to grant California “waivers” to enforce environmental rules that are significantly tougher than federal requirements and that state regulators have already approved, said these individuals, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because the announcement was not yet public.The new policies could have a profound effect on the air Californians breathe. Heavy-duty trucks account for nearly a third of the state’s smog-forming nitrogen oxide and more than a quarter of its fine particle pollution from diesel fuel. Both of these harmful pollutants are linked to asthma, other respiratory illnesses and premature death. Environmental advocates on behalf of Black and Latino Californians, who are more likely to live near ports, huge warehouse complexes and major highways, have long pleaded with the state’s regulators to strengthen pollution limits on the trucks whose fumes waft through their neighborhoods. Climate activists have echoed these demands. The rules could also have national significance. Six other states, which together with California represent about 20 percent of the nation’s heavy-duty vehicle sales, have already committed to follow California’s tougher standards. But because of the way the Clean Air Act works, California and those other states cannot put their plans into action until the EPA grants the state a waiver. California’s new policies include stricter pollution limits for heavy-duty vehicles — such as delivery vans, garbage trucks and 18-wheelers — that require them to cut emissions of nitrogen oxide and particulate matter. These rules would apply to vehicles beginning with the 2024 model year, three years ahead of the administration’s latest regulations, which start with the model year 2027.

Electric tractors set to roll off Ohio plant - The massive 6.2-million-square-foot FoxConn plant in Lordstown, Ohio — once the place where General Motors made 300,000 Chevy Cruze cars a year — will be the manufacturing home of Monarch’s fully electric MK-V tractor. Mark Schwager, co-founder and president of Monarch, of which CNH has a minority stake as well as a multiyear licensing agreement for the company’s battery technology, says the first tractors could be rolled off the FoxConn assembly line by the end of this month. Thus far, the company has delivered 55 of its fully electric, autonomous MK-V tractors since they launched in December. The tractor is being sold exclusively in California for now largely because of its dearth of servicing and support for the machines. It has gotten a foothold in some of the state’s largest vineyards, which should come as no surprise as Carlo Mondavi, member of the famed Mondavi wine family, is the company’s chief farming officer and one of the company’s co-founders. But Schwager says the company hopes to expand market by market this year, with the hopes of going nationwide by the end of the year. Its MK-V, powered by a 100-kwh battery, can provide 40 hp (30 kw) all day, but it can peak at up to 70 hp (52 kw). It has a 540-rpm PTO with a hydraulic interface, and it is equipped with the latest autonomous and robotics hardware, and software for autonomous operations. “I would think of it less like an autonomous car and more like an industrial robot,” Schwager says. “Which is much more the type of environment we see our tractor operating in, mostly because a farm is a controlled environment.” About 90% of the global tractor market is below 100 hp, which he thinks is the sweet spot for electrification. “Right now, we think everything below 100 hp or below 120 hp is ripe for electrification, and I think we can develop batteries that can produce the duty cycle for farmers to have the all-day operation for any of those vehicles that size," Schwager says, adding that the tractor is also being used on specialty crop farms and even some dairies.

Gas stoves generate pollution that is a potential health risk - The Consumer Product Safety Commission is now officially open for comments on how it should grapple with evidence that gas stoves pollute indoor air. The Department of Energy has proposed rules that would raise the bar for new stoves sold, which would not ban gas stoves but require they meet higher efficiency standards. States and cities are doing even more: Illinois is considering legislation requiring a warning label on gas stoves; Eugene, Oregon, recently joined the list of 105 cities beginning to phase out gas in new construction in the country to begin to phase out gas in new construction; and New York’s governor has prioritized legislation to phase out fossil fuel heating by 2030.Each of these actions faces well-funded, politically connected opposition from the fossil fuel industry, which has the most to lose from Americans turning against the gas stove. And a major pillar of that campaign rests on convincing the public that scientists have not made any connection between gas stoves and indoor air quality problems.Rebecca Leber has been writing about gas stoves and their health and climate effects since 2020. Read more of her recent coverage of myths about the appliance and the history of the gas stove wars — and why some chefs are ready forinduction cooking.The basic scientific understanding of why gas stoves are a problem for health and the climate is on solid footing. It’s also common sense. When you have a fire in the house, you need somewhere for all that smoke to go. Combust natural gas, and it’s not just smoke you need to worry about. There are dozens of other pollutants, including the greenhouse gas methane, that also fill the air. And while some specifics remain uncertain, there is more agreement than disagreement among researchers on the problematic pollutants of natural gas, and whether our everyday use of it reaches harmful thresholds indoors. For roughly 72 million American households, everyday use usually means more than just cooking on the stove or in the oven — they might have gas powering their heating, hot water, fireplaces, or laundry. And the impacts go beyond air pollution. Gas in our homes is an example of the kind of fossil fuel infrastructure that the United Nations’ top body of climate scientists warn must be phased down if the world has any hope of keeping within its goals for limiting climate change.Here’s what we know — and what we don’t know — about gas stoves and their indoor health risks.

Global renewable growth broke records in 2022, adding almost 295 GW: IRENA - Renewable energy capacity worldwide grew at a record rate in 2022, with nearly 295 GW added and renewables providing an “unprecedented” 83% of new energy worldwide, says a March 21 reportfrom the International Renewable Energy Agency.Global renewable generation capacity stood at 3,372 GW by the end of the year.IRENA, a treaty organization with 166 members, said the increase was due largely to the growth of solar and wind power with the decommissioning of fossil fuel plants in several large economies. New solar installations accounted for 192 GW of the 295 GW added.“This continued record growth shows the resilience of renewable energy amidst the lingering energy crisis,” IRENA’s Director-General Francesco La Camera said in a press release. “But annual additions of renewable power capacity must grow three times the current level by 2030 if we want to stay on a pathway limiting global warming to 1.5°C.”The addition of 295 GW increased global renewables capacity by 9.6%, IRENA says. The organization found significant growth of renewables is concentrated in Asia, the U.S. and Europe, with almost half of the new capacity added in 2022 in Asia – in particular China, which added 141 GW.Despite strong overall growth, wind installation has slowed, with 75 GW of wind added globally in 2022 versus the 111 GW added in 2020.In a foreword to IRENA’s report, La Camera wrote about the importance of modernizing the energy grid as renewable energy gets closer to accounting for half of total global energy capacity.“Many energy planning questions must be addressed to establish renewables as the most significant source of electricity generation - including in the context of grid flexibility and adaptation to variable renewable power,” he said.

Missouri, Kansas utilities back bills to reestablish monopoly on transmission projects - Missouri’s largest electric utility believes a bill aimed at reducing competition and giving monopoly providers an advantage in building transmission lines will avoid cost overruns and deliver better results for customers.In its home state, where it stands to benefit, Ameren Missouri has offered its full-throated support to legislation aimed at giving the company the right of first refusal to build transmission lines, and argued opponents’ worries about limiting competition are “disingenuous at best.”“Do you want local companies with roots in our state and communities, with a vested interest in our future, who build infrastructure for the long term interest in Missourians, who live here building these major transmission projects?” Warren Wood, Ameren Missouri’s legislative and regulatory vice president, asked in a Missouri House committee hearing earlier this month. But in 2016, when Kansas considered similar legislation — which would have cut Ameren out of bidding in favor of that state’s utilities — the Missouri provider was opposed. It took a position diametrically opposed to its current one and strikingly similar to the arguments it called disingenuous.At that time, Shawn Schukar, Ameren’s senior vice president of transmission business development, said competition had reduced costs in other parts of the country.“Concerns about the ability of non-incumbent transmission developers to provide safe and reliable service to electricity consumers in Kansas are unfounded,” Schukar said. “Ameren’s operating subsidiaries have been providing safe and reliable transmission service across multiple states for years.”US utility firms spent big preparing power grid for storms – and still failed --The warnings to residents in the south-east US came right before Christmas: delay washing clothes or running the dishwasher, and curb hot water use until the bitterly cold temperatures eased up. It still wasn’t enough for two of the nation’s largest electric utilities. As temperatures plummeted to 40F (4.4C) in a few hours and gale force winds swept across the region between 23 and 24 December, the pre-holiday preparations were put on pause as Tennessee Valley Authority (TVA) and Duke Energy implemented historic rolling blackouts lasting about 30 minutes to an hour. By some accounts the utilities’ inability to supply power during the extreme weather almost plunged the entire eastern US into darkness. And in some parts of the country, as much as 63% of the outages came from natural gas plants, according to the PJM Interconnection, an organization that operates the largest regional power grid in the US. The near miss came after those two utilities, among others, spent billions preparing the grid for such a storm after the 2014 polar vortex, when record cold weather exposed vulnerabilities in the power grid. Yet, despite those investments, when the cold hit again last year, equipment at natural gas and coal-powered plants throughout the south-east still froze.Because the demand for electricity was so high compared to the supply of electricity, a wide swath of the nation’s power grid was at risk for extensive blackouts that could have been as severe as the north-east blackout in August 2003, one Duke Energy executive told a hearing. Had Duke not purposely reduced the amount of energy demand pulling on its grid, the stability of the Eastern Interconnection – the bulk electric system that stretches from central Canada to Florida and west towards the Rockies – was at risk, said Sam Holman, Duke’s vice-president of transmission and system operations at a January hearing of North Carolina’s utility regulator. Clean energy advocates and grid experts argue the December weather proved the growing number of natural gas plants, which now supply more than one-third of the nation’s electricity, are not the right choice to deal with extreme weather and are delaying a move to less climate-polluting alternatives. Despite that, Duke, Southern Company, TVA and others are looking past that argument and building more gas plants anyway. “They don’t seem to see the writing on the wall that gas is not this [dependable], reliable resource,” said Maggie Shober, research director at the Southern Alliance for Clean Energy. Yet, some say natural gas is the best option for right now, as utilities close older power plants and add more renewables, steps that upend the traditional power grid. “Gas, nuclear, coal are sometimes less reliable, but they are more reliable than renewables,”

Sierra Club lawsuit: Illinois coal plant ran ‘illegally’ -Illinois’ largest coal plant has been operating for over a decade without ever obtaining an operating permit required under the Clean Air Act, the Sierra Club alleges in a lawsuit filed Wednesday in federal court against Prairie State Generating Company.The required “Title V” permit sets limits on pollutants like mercury, lead and sulfur dioxide, and defines how the plant will report and monitor its emissions and any violations. Prairie State applied for the permit from the Illinois Environmental Protection Agency in 2010, but the state agency never granted nor denied the permit. The plant began operating in June 2012. Under state law, after two years of agency inaction, the coal plant was officially operating “illegally,” as the Sierra Club alleges, without the required permit. Prairie State had obtained a construction permit under the Clean Air Act to begin operations, but that permit is supposed to be replaced by an operating permit. Sierra Club Law Program staff attorney Megan Wachspress said that the environmental organization assumed that Prairie State had its permits. They only became aware of the gaping deficiency, she said, when Prairie State reported to state regulators that it had during April 2021 exceeded the mercury emissions limits in its construction permit, which reflected federal mercury standards.The company had seemingly been treating the construction permit as an operating permit — even though the construction permit explicitly stated it was only valid for one year after operations began, as noted in the Sierra Club lawsuit. A construction permit is “clearly granted in anticipation there will be a second permit,” Wachspress said. “This is a case where there was never a basic assessment of what the operating limitations would be [or] what the monitoring and reporting requirements would be. This is a fundamental problem.”Community and financial watchdog organizations and environmental groups have long kept a close eye on the massive, 1,600-megawatt coal plant. Under Prairie State’s highly controversial and problematic financial structure, the plant is essentially owned by nine public power agencies that serve almost 300 municipal utilities and electric cooperatives across Illinois, Indiana, Ohio, Kentucky, Michigan, Virginia, Missouri and West Virginia.The contracts have saddled small communities with debtand much higher power prices than they would pay otherwise, especially as the plant cost much more to construct than predicted. But despite all the scrutiny, Wachspress said the lack of an operating permit was not discovered sooner “in part because of just how weird it is. People kind of assume the basic stuff gets done.”The lawsuit demands that Prairie State cease operations until an operating permit is in place and pay civil penalties, with $100,000 going to public health and environmental mitigation.

Radioactive water leaks at Minn. nuclear plant for 2nd time (AP) — Water containing a radioactive material has leaked for a second time from a nuclear plant near Minneapolis and the plant will be shut down, but there is no danger to the public, the plant’s owner said Thursday. A leak of what was believed to be hundreds of gallons of water containing tritium was discovered this week from a temporary fix at the Monticello Nuclear Generating Plant, where 400,000 gallons (1.5 million liters) of water with tritium leaked in November, Xcel Energy said in a statement Thursday. The plant about 38 miles (61 kilometers) northwest of Minneapolis is scheduled to power down Friday so permanent repairs can begin, the company said.There was a months long delay in announcing the initial leak that raised questions about public safety and transparency, but industry experts said there was never a public health threat.The new leak, announced a day after Xcel Energy says it was discovered, was found to be coming from a temporary fix to the original leak, the company said in a statement. This time, the leak is anticipated to be in the hundreds of gallons. “While the leak continues to pose no risk to the public or the environment, we determined the best course of action is to power down the plant and perform the permanent repairs immediately,” said Chris Clark, president of Xcel Energy–Minnesota, North Dakota and South Dakota. “We are continuing to work with and inform our state, federal, city and county leaders in the process.”After the first leak was found in November, Xcel Energy made a short-term fix to capture water from a leaking pipe and reroute it back into the plant for re-use. The solution was designed to prevent new tritium from reaching the groundwater until installation of a replacement pipe during a regularly scheduled outage in mid-April, the company said. However, monitoring equipment indicated Wednesday that a small amount of new water from the original leak had reached the groundwater. Operators discovered that, over the past two days, the temporary solution was no longer capturing all of the leaking water, Xcel Energy said. The leaked water remains contained on-site and has not been detected in any local drinking water, Xcel Energy said.

Minnesota nuclear plant shuts down for leak; residents worry (AP) — A Minnesota utility began shutting down a nuclear power plant near Minneapolis on Friday after failing to stop the release of radioactive material it says is not dangerous but has prompted concerns among nearby residents. Xcel Energy started shutting down the plant in Monticello, and after it cools over the next few days, workers will cut out a pipe that is over 50 years old and had been leaking tritium, said Chris Clark, the utility’s president. The utility will then have the pipe analyzed in hopes of preventing similar leaks in the future, he said.“We could have continued to safely operate the plant and simply repair the catchment, but then, of course, there is always a risk that it would spill over again and have more tritium enter the groundwater,” Clark said during a news conference near the Monticello Nuclear Generating Plant, about 35 miles (56 kilometers) northwest of Minneapolis. “We didn’t want to take that chance, so we’re bringing the plant down.”Clark said the tritium isn’t a risk to the drinking water of Monticello or the nearby city of Becker. He said Monticello takes its water from the Mississippi River above the plant, and Becker’s intake is across the river. Even if the tritium reached the river, which Clark assured wouldn’t happen, it would dissipate within a few yards, he said.Clark said the spill had not left the utility’s property.Xcel discovered in November that about 400,000 gallons (1.5 million liters) of water containing tritium had leaked. The utility made a temporary fix but learned this week that hundreds more gallons of tritium-laced water had leaked, leading to the shutdown decision. The utility reported the leak to state and federal authorities in late November but didn’t make the spill widely public until last week, raising questions about transparency and public health issues. State officials said they wanted to wait for more details before sharing information widely. Tritium is a radioactive isotope of hydrogen that occurs naturally and is a common byproduct of nuclear plant operations. It emits a weak form of beta radiation that does not travel far and cannot penetrate human skin, according to the Nuclear Regulatory Commission.

Governor wastes no time, signs bill limiting storage of high-level nuclear waste -- Just hours after the Legislature passed a bill limiting the storage of high-level nuclear waste in New Mexico, Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham signed the bill into law. The rest of this story continues as originally written below. Rep. Matthew McQueen, D-Galisteo, highlighted the various nuclear projects that New Mexico has had over the decades as he urged his colleagues to pass a bill to prohibit the storage of high level nuclear waste without state consent and without a national permanent repository in place. The House voted 35-28 to pass SB 53 on Friday, sending the bill to the governor’s desk. This bill comes as a company, Holtec International, is seeking to build a temporary storage location for nuclear waste from power plants throughout the country. Currently, the waste is stored at the power plants. McQueen said that New Mexico has played a key role in the atomic era, starting with the Manhattan Project which developed the first atomic bomb. He said the legacy pollution and health issues from that role continues to be present to this day, highlighting Tularosa Basin downwinders and unremediated uranium mines on Navajo Nation. McQueen also pointed to the Waste Isolation Pilot Project, which stores transuranic waste that is not considered high-level waste. He said now Holtec wants to bring all of the high-level radioactive waste from across the country to New Mexico. “New Mexico has done its part and we should not be the nation’s dumping ground,” he said. There are some concerns that New Mexico may not have the authority to enforce the law. The federal Atomic Energy Act gives the authority to regulate nuclear waste to the federal government. But McQueen argued that the state doesn’t have the authority to specify the depth at which nuclear waste must be buried or the thickness of the walls, but it does have authority to protect its economy, roads and environment. That is what he said SB 53 does.

Coal plants helped cause bribery scandal. Now FirstEnergy might be buying one back - Ohio Capital Journal Akron-based FirstEnergy might be poised to increase its coal-fired generation capacity by 40% with the purchase of a West Virginia plant it owned less than four years ago and spun off as part of a massive racketeering scandal.The reason why the company paid out more than $60 million between 2017 and 2020 to force through a $1.3 billion bailout was pretty straightforward: It was sending money-losing nuclear and coal plants through bankruptcy and executives thought the vast subsidies from the bailout would make the newly independent company that emerged attractive to buyers.In its desperation to offload the plants, FirstEnergy funded what federal prosecutors said was probably the biggest bribery and money laundering scandal in Ohio history. After the scandal broke into the open in 2020, FirstEnergy fired its top executives, signed a deferred prosecution agreement, and paid a $230 million fine. As if that weren’t enough reputational damage, the company’s name was dragged constantly through the muck of a seven-week trial that ended earlier this month with the racketeering convictions of former Ohio House Speaker Larry Householder and state GOP Chairman Matthew Borges.But after all that, FirstEnergy might be poised to buy back one of the coal plants it went to such lengths to offload. The Pleasants Power Station is on the West Virginia side of the Ohio River southeast of Marietta. FirstEnergy placed it with subsidiary FirstEnergy Solutions just after the corrupt bailout passed in 2019. The subsidiary emerged from bankruptcy as Energy Harbor in February 2020. The newly independent company then handed the unprofitable coal plant off to Energy Transition & Environmental Management, which is preparing it for closure.Pleasants is scheduled to be closed by June, but West Virginia Gov. Jim Justice and members of the West Virginia Legislature are mounting a push for FirstEnergy to buy it back and make it part of the company’s regulated Monongahela Power or Potomac Edison subsidiaries. The political effort seems to be aimed at protecting coal jobs at a time when coal’s been uncompetitive with natural gas and renewable sources of energy. But Justice said he’s all in to save the plant — and, apparently, to make consumers pay for it.“The Senate, the House, and myself are going to do any and everything we possibly can, to make this become a reality, to where this plant works for many, many years to come, and runs as a coal-fired power plant,” WOWK quoted Justice as saying last month. “We need it.”

Former PUCO Commissioner: Ohio Energy Policy Is Incoherent, Asymmetrical, and Driven by Special Interests - Cleveland Scene The lack of coherent state energy policy and asymmetrical alignment of risks and rewards left a vacuum that made Ohio fertile ground for the HB6 bailout and bribery scandal. The national debate over energy policy in recent years has revolved around two quite different, although not irreconcilable policy objectives: transitioning the energy sector into a more environmentally benign direction, and increasing overall efficiency and productivity through competition where viable, or through regulation where necessary. Neither of those objectives are present on any coherent way in what passes for energy policy in Ohio. Regarding the energy transition, three legislative enactments of recent years reveal the lack of coherence as well as the influence of special interests. First, HB 6 itself — billed by the governor and legislative leaders as a means of addressing climate change by supporting non-carbon-emitting nuclear power plants — is, in reality a carbon emitter’s dream bill that subsidizes aging, inefficient coal plants, eliminates energy efficiency and renewable mandates, and made the siting of wind turbines more difficult. When the scandal surrounding HB 6 emerged, the legislature and governor moved to repeal the nuclear provisions of the bill, but maintained the coal subsidies, and failed to restore the mandates for efficiency and renewables, making it utterly transparent that abating climate change was never part of the agenda. Recently the legislature also passed a measure declaring natural gas — an emitter of methane and carbon — to be a “green” resource. While a case can certainly be made that natural gas displacing coal has been a net plus for the environment, only in the world of the absurd can gas be deemed “green.” Regarding competition and productivity, two statements reveal the lack of any knowledge or even inquisitiveness by critical leaders. The first comment was that of Gov. Mike DeWine in the context of the passage of HB 6, asking then-PUCO Chair Sam Randazzo, whom FirstEnergy later admitting bribing $4 million, if First Energy needed the money. The second was a recent comment by Ohio Senate President Matt Huffman that he was open to ending the coal subsidies if the plants were no longer losing money. Neither of these key policymakers asked the critical questions of why the plants might be losing money, whether they can be made more efficient, or what could be done to make them more efficient. Particularly troublesome is that fact that neither of these two market-oriented Republicans bothered to ask the obvious: namely what subsidies would do to the robustness of the competition in the generating market. Nor did they inquire as to the obvious asymmetry in a subsidy regime where consumers, not investors, bear the risk of losses. Increasing productivity and efficient markets appears to be of little interest to key policy makers in the state. Funneling captive consumer dollars to favored interests seems the most powerful driver of policy in Ohio.

Drilling in state parks: Republicans hope it can fuel a tax cut, but environmentalists fear the worst - cleveland.com – Ohio Senate President Matt Huffman is looking to oil and gas production on public lands, including state parks and state forests, to help replace lost state revenue that would result from income tax cuts that the legislature is eyeing.Huffman, a Lima Republican, said at the Ohio Oil and Gas Association’s annual conference March 9 that production leases on state lands could be a “great revenue generator,” according to Gongwer News Service, which covers the Statehouse and sent a reporter to the conference.But it’s unclear how much of a dent new drilling leases would put in the billion-dollar hole that would be left by the most recent tax-cut proposal before state lawmakers.Republicans who control the legislature have discussed eliminating Ohio’s income taxes, and a bill in the Ohio House would flatten the tax by most drastically cutting rates of wealthy taxpayers and modestly cutting middle-income tax rates. A spokesman for Huffman said Wednesday that the Senate is considering its own tax-cut proposals for the state’s two-year operating budget.Already, though, the Ohio Department of Natural Resources is accepting lease applications for oil and gas drilling in state-owned oil and gas reserves. The Plain Dealer / cleveland.com has requested from ODNR all the leases that have been submitted.Oil and gas development on state property is expected to soon begin after over a decade of debate on the issue among Republicans, Democrats, environmentalists and the oil and gas industry. Lawmakers passed a bill in the waning hours of the two-year legislative session last year that paved the way for drilling on public lands.“If the state can responsibly add to the revenue of the state and we can lower the tax burden, that makes Ohio a much more competitive state,” Huffman told the oilmen on March 9. “And so we should do this in earnest. We should do it responsibly. Kick it into a gear where it actually makes sense and, you know, it can be a great benefit to us.” But environmental groups have objected to drilling on state property, saying the noise, traffic and air pollution will interfere with the solace Ohioans seek when they camp, hike, kayak and participate in other recreation in state parks and forests. It’s not realistic to depend on oil and gas as a replacement revenue for reduced income taxes, said Nathan Johnson, the Ohio Environmental Council’s public lands director. The amount of money the state could earn from oil and gas are uncertain, according to the nonpartisan Legislative Service Commission, when weighing the fiscal impacts of an oil-and-gas bill last year. The industry also doesn’t yet have any estimates about how much it will drill in coming years, as leasing is still in the early stages.Royalties, or the portion that the state would receive from a lease, is one-eighth of the oil and gas produced, Ohio law states. This is a common rate, though some states demand royalties as high as 25%. Oil and gas companies expect to tap mostly subsurface minerals owned by the state. They set up on private property, then access the state minerals underground through vertical and horizontal drilling, said Mike Chadsey, director of public relations for the Ohio Oil and Gas Association. State law prohibits companies from using state-owned surface land for oil and gas development “unless the state agency, in its sole discretion, chooses to negotiate and execute a written surface use agreement.”

How hazardous is Ohio Senate President Matt Huffman’s plan to drill under state parks? Today in Ohio - cleveland.com (podcast transcript)) - Ohio Senate President Matt Huffman is looking to oil and gas production under state parks and forest to help offset possible income tax cuts. We’re talking about possible environmental issues on Today in Ohio. Listen online here. Editor Chris Quinn hosts our daily half-hour news podcast, with impact editor Leila Atassi, editorial board member Lisa Garvin and content director Laura Johnston.Here’s what we’re asking about today: Are environmentalist’s fears misplaced about Ohio Senate President Matt Huffman’s plan for oil and gas drilling on state lands?

[00:00:00] Chris: First day of spring, and we’re still digging out from one of our biggest snowstorms, interesting weather all winter long. It’s today in Ohio. The news podcast discussion from cleveland.com and the plane dealer. I’m Chris Quinn, here with Lisa Garbin, Laura Johnston and Leila Tassi for another rip snorting conversation.Let’s go. Our environmentalist fears misplaced about Ohio Senate President Matt Huffman’s, plan for oil. Gas drilling on state lands, or I read this story and I’m trying to figure out, is this devastating to the state lands and state parks? Is the reaction people are having more strong than is warranted? What’s going on…
[00:00:42] Laura: here? Well, the folks who want to be able to do this and remember the green energy bill that we’ve. Talked about at length on this podcast. The NA natural gas is green energy. That included the ability to drill on state parks, and they’d always had that. And it’s drilling under the state parks.
To be clear, [00:01:00] they, they say that the machinery will not be on the actual park. It’s not like they’ll be an oil rig next to your campsite, but they would be accessing the oil and gas reserves underneath it. And what that bill did was it changed from shall. To ca basically can so that no longer did the OD n r have to go through a long process to say, okay, maybe you can, maybe you can’t, uh, drill, but you are allowed to. Now I think it’s from May to shell, that’s the verb change. And so they say, this is, this is perfectly fine. It’ll be perfectly safe, no problem, but hey, let’s use this to offset the tax cuts we wanna give to the wealthiest Ohioans. And that’s where the issue, well, I mean, I think separately we can talk about the environmental impact and what that’s gonna be like because we don’t actually know, and I think. It’s worth sounding alarm about some of our most pristine, natural spaces in this entire state. But do we wanna start drilling underneath state parks just so we can give rich people a big a, a [00:02:00] big tax cut? It just seems like Ohio’s priorities are so messed up here. It’s like trying to solve a labor shortage on the backs of 14 year
[00:02:07] Chris: olds. All right. Let, let, let, there’s three things going on here and I, let’s take ‘em individually. One, the story shows how you’re never going to solve a budget issue with this, that, I mean, there are multiple people in the story and saying that’s a ridiculous, ridiculous idea. So Matt Huffman saying he’s gonna solve a budget problem with this, that’s bogus.Two. The, let’s put aside that Ohio is terrible at green energy. It is the, that they haven’t repealed HB six completely, the corrupt, filthy law because it did away with important green energy standards. And yes, you’re right. The governor has signed the bill saying, NA natural gas is green energy, which is.In the extreme, and they’re all trying to stand by it, and we’ll forever be talking about it. It makes Ohio look like chumps [00:03:00] on the issue of drilling on the parks and state lands. I guess I wasn’t aware before that they would never actually have the equipment on the state lands that it would come from private lands and drill down at an angle into the parks.Given all of the. Controversy we had about oil in the past couple of years. Is it a terrible thing to try and extract whatever the the value is from under those parks if you don’t in any way damage the parks, but
[00:03:32] Laura: how? I don’t know that you can say that. I don’t think you can promise we’re not damaging the parks because you don’t know the long-term consequences.All the fracking, we’ve, I mean, we’ve been talking about fracking now for 15 years, and the fact is we don’t know what they put underground. To do the fracking when they’re injecting all of that liquid into the earth to try to get the minerals out. They don’t, it’s trade secret. They don’t have to tell you.We don’t know the long-term implications of the water and I, I just think it’s really [00:04:00] risky just to say, we’ll make some money on it.

Snodgrass is right to appeal valuation of Nexus pipeline | Editorial - Morning Journal - Lorain County Auditor Craig Snodgrass made the right move March 13 appealing to the Ohio Supreme Court to challenge the most recent and final decision of the Ohio Board of Tax Appeals regarding the valuation of the Nexus pipeline system. After lengthy consideration and input from multiple stakeholders in Lorain County and throughout Ohio, Snodgrass decided to appeal.Nexus Gas Transmission is an approximately 256-mile, 36-inch pipeline running through 12 Ohio counties and into a portion of Michigan.Snodgrass is well within his right to appeal.And he has a supporter in Lorain County Commissioner Michelle Hung, who does not see a down side to taking the appeal to the Supreme Court to rule on this matter.The value was $1.6 billion and the tax commissioner has settled on a value of $950 million, leaving a shortfall to Lorain County of approximately $4 million per year, every year.Obviously, that’s not sitting well with Snodgrass and Hung, especially because the ruling would not be a one-time loss.The higher the value of the gas line, the more money schools and other government agencies receive in funding from tax money collected in those areas where the gas line operates.Hung believes that with the shortfall, area schools and children will suffer the effects of less money.And she has a point that residents don’t have high-priced lobbyists working for them, and the people look to their elected officials to make sure this is a good deal for the schools and children’s future.Hung doesn’t want school districts going to voters to support a levy because corporate businesses aren’t paying their fair share.The two sides, however, had worked out a settlement agreement valuing the pipeline at $950 million for tax year 2019, $946 million in tax year 2020; $934 million in tax year 2021 and the estimated value of $901 million for 2022.Snodgrass firmly believes that under the Board of Tax Appeals decision, his office was wrongfully deprived of a statutory right-of-appeal and the ability to challenge the “true value” of the Nexus pipeline system for not only tax year 2019, but in 2020, 2021 and every year thereafter.Snodgrass feels it’s an obligation to file the appeal, because if not, the Board of Tax Appeals’ ruling would cost Lorain County, and its political subdivision, approximately $15.7 million for tax years 2019-2022, and significant more in personal property tax revenue thereafter.Snodgrass also noted he not only is filing the appeal on behalf of Lorain County residents, but for other county auditors across the state.

Living Near Fracking Tied to Increase in Hospitalizations in Seniors -- Older adults living near fracking sites could have a high risk for poor cardiovascular outcomes, according to a study published in the March issue of The Lancet Planetary Health. see Abstract/Full TextKevin S. Trickey, from the University of Chicago, and colleagues assessed the effects of unconventional natural gas development (UNGD) on population health in local communities. The analysis included Medicare claims (2002 to 2015) in Pennsylvania ZIP codes with fracking and neighboring New York communities without fracking.The researchers found that Pennsylvania ZIP codes that started UNGD in 2008 to 2010 were associated with more hospitalizations for cardiovascular diseases in 2012 to 2015 than would be expected in the absence of UNGD. In 2015, there were an additional 11.8, 21.6, and 20.4 hospitalizations for acute myocardial infarction, heart failure, and ischemic heart disease, respectively, per 1,000 Medicare beneficiaries. Even as UNGD growth slowed, hospitalizations increased and persisted in sensitivity analyses."Although we can't point to one specific part of fracking operations as the culprit, folks living near fracking sites could be affected by exposure to things like air or water pollution that often come with fracking activity," Trickey said in a statement. "Our study connects nearby fracking activity to real, serious human health outcomes, suggesting it's not just a matter of economics or environmental sustainability -- but that policymakers and residents alike should start prioritizing the health of citizens, whether drilling new wells or plugging old ones."

New York nears deal to ban gas stoves in new homes - — New York state lawmakers are poised to enact the nation’s first legislative ban on gas and fossil fuel appliances in most new buildings, including single-family homes.Despite outcry from Republicans nationwide about states and the federal government looking to ban gas stoves, New York appears set to move forward with the proposal in the state budget due March 31.The reason a deal looks imminent is because Gov. Kathy Hochul and fellow Democrats in both chambers of the state Legislature have endorsed proposals to prohibit fossil fuel furnaces, water heaters, clothes dryers and gas stoves in most new construction.New York would be the first to take this step through legislative action; California and Washington have done so through building codes. An agreement has not been finalized to ensure passage, but the new restrictions are included in all three plans being discussed in Albany.Supporters see the potential law as a national model that they hope can spur similar action by other states and the federal government to limit fossil fuel use in buildings, which are a major source of greenhouse gas emissions contributing to climate change.“All eyes are on us and a lot of other states are looking to what New York does,” said Pat McClellan, policy director at the New York League of Conservation Voters. “If we prove it can be done and we have the political will to do this, it’s going to open the floodgates for other states to take action.”Republicans across the nation have stoked anger about proposals targeting gas stoves after a federal official said the Consumer Product Safety Commission should consider a ban. In Florida, Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis urged lawmakers to approve a tax exemption for gas stoves and declared federal officials aren’t “taking our gas stoves away from us.”

Republicans Introduce Bills To Prevent Biden Administration From Banning Gas Stoves - Two House Energy and Commerce Committee Republicans announced on March 20 they are introducing legislation to prevent the Biden administration from banning gas stoves.The legislation was introduced by Reps. Kelly Armstrong (R-N.D.) and Debbie Lesko, (R-Ariz.) in response to the Biden administration’s two-pronged push to ban gas stoves, and might go to the House floor for a vote later this year.Lesko introduced H.R. 1640, also known as the Save Our Gas Stoves Act, while Armstrong introduced H.R. 1615, the Gas Stove Protection and Freedom Act. Both bills are currently in committee. The pieces of legislation would prohibit the Consumer Product Safety Commission (CPSC) from using federal funding to implement any regulation that would classify gas stoves as a prohibited dangerous product under current law.The bills also prohibit the CPSC from enforcing any consumer product safety standards that would prohibit the use of gas stoves or impose regulations that would raise gas stove prices. In a press release announcing the legislation, Armstrong emphasized his frustration with the administration’s attempts to ban the stoves.“Inflation is hurting everyone. We have a crisis at our Southern Border. North Dakotans are worried about being able to provide for their families. What is the Biden administration focused on? Controlling the kind of stove Americans use,” Armstrong said.

Fossil Fuel Executives See a ‘Golden Age’ for Gas, If They Can Brand It as ‘Clean’ - Natural gas has long been subject to a war of words. Once it was a “bridge fuel” that would straddle the gap from fossil energy to renewable sources. More recently, climate activists have sought to highlight that gas pollutes, too, by stripping “natural” from its name and calling it fossil- or methane gas. The industry is pushing back, and gas executives displayed their latest linguistic counteroffensive at an industry conference this month in Houston. “It’s time for us to stop tiptoeing about the value of natural gas,” said Octávio Simões, chief executive of Tellurian, which is struggling to finance its multi-billion dollar plan to export liquified natural gas, or LNG. “It’s time for us to say it is an incredible fuel, and we’re not afraid to burn it in our kitchens,” he added, drawing cheers from the otherwise subdued crowd. Gas’s fortunes have fallen over the last decade as emerging science revealed that its production and transport releases large volumes of methane, the fuel’s primary component and a potent greenhouse gas. Some estimates indicate these leaks have wiped away much or even most of the gains the United States appeared to make in cutting climate pollution by replacing coal with gas as a fuel for power plants. When burned, gas releases about half as much carbon dioxide as coal, but methane traps about 85 times more heat than CO2 over a 20-year period. Other science has shown that gas stoves emit harmful chemicals that can collect in people’s homes.“We lost the narrative on the value of natural gas,” Simões said.Toby Rice, who leads EQT, the country’s largest gas producer, was sitting next to Simões and has been at the forefront of an effort to win back that narrative. During the panel, Rice called his company’s product the “cleanest energy in the world,” despite the fact that gas emits 20 percent of global carbon dioxide emissions.Fossil fuel executives were broadcasting the same message as Rice and Simões throughout the conference, CERAWeek by S&P Global, one of the energy industry’s largest annual gatherings.

U.S. Natural Gas Demand Outpaced Supply in 2022, Says FERC - U.S. LNG exports rose by 8.6% year/year to average 10.6 Bcf/d in 2022, with demand growth driven by European markets seeking a substitute for Russian supply, according to FERC. Coincidentally, the figure for net exports of natural gas overall – including liquefied natural gas and pipeline exports – also was 10.6 Bcf/d, up slightly from 10.5 Bcf/d in 2021, the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission said in its 2022 State of the Market report. “Tight LNG supplies contributed to increasing international prices, which reached record levels, incentivizing U.S. LNG exports,” researchers said. “The approval and expansion of multiple LNG export facilities in 2022 increased LNG liquefaction capacity to serve the growing international LNG demand to higher-priced regions.” Domestically, natural gas prices increased in 2022 versus 2021 at nearly all major hubs, the FERC team noted. The Henry Hub national benchmark averaged $6.38/MMbtu for the year, up from $3.82 in 2021. “This was the highest average spot price at Henry Hub since 2008, and the largest absolute year-over-year average price increase since 2005,” researchers said. FERC researchers explained that “natural gas demand growth outpaced gains in natural gas production,” boosting prices. “In 2022, natural gas demand was driven by increased domestic natural gas consumption and LNG exports. Although production did not keep pace with demand, it continued the growth trend seen in the last decade.” Production highs were especially noticeable in the Permian Basin and Haynesville Shale, they added. This was due to pipeline infrastructure expansions in both regions. By contrast, the Marcellus and Utica shales in Appalachia each saw year/year production declines, a trend “likely in part disincentivized by limited takeaway capacity additions.” More than 40% of incremental pipeline capacity additions over the last five years have occurred in the South Central region. The region accounted for 58% of capacity additions in 2022, researchers said. Natural gas storage inventories, meanwhile, trended downward for the year as a whole, although they have since returned to levels above the five-year historical average.

Chilly Winter, Hot Summer Fuel All-Time U.S. Natural Gas Demand in 2022 - Strong peaks in the winter and summer drove U.S. natural gas consumption to an all-time high last year, averaging 88.5 Bcf/d, according to the Energy Information Administration (EIA). The federal agency said natural gas consumption peaked last year in January and July. EIA noted that natural gas peaks twice a year in the United States, driven by the residential and commercial sectors during the winter and the electric power sector during the summer. In winter, the most natural gas is consumed in January or February when demand for space heating peaks. In summer, the most natural gas is consumed typically in July or August to meet air-conditioning demand. In January 2022, the combined residential and commercial sectors consumed 9% more natural gas than in January 2021, according to EIA. Notably, the electric power sector consumed 10% more year/year, and even reached a record in January 2022 that pushed overall natural gas consumption to a monthly record high in records dating back to 1949. Strong demand continued in the summer, with last year’s being the third-warmest on record in the Lower 48, according to EIA. This led to strong demand for air conditioning and resulted in new daily records for electricity generation in July. “As a result, more natural gas was consumed in the electric power sector, pushing consumption in July to be the highest for the summer,” EIA analysts Katy Fleury and Kristen Tsai. Overall, the pace of the increase in natural gas demand at 5% year/year (4.5 Bcf/d) was the second-fastest annual growth since 2013, EIA said. What’s more, natural gas consumption in the United States set monthly records in nine of 12 months in 2022.

Cold Snap, Bullish Storage Expectations Fail to Send Natural Gas Futures Higher; Spot Prices Steady - Natural gas futures probed higher early Monday, with bulls seizing upon favorable near-term weather, steady export demand and market expectations for a seasonally robust inventory withdrawal. But intensifying stress in the global financial system ultimately curbed the momentum and left futures in the red as markets closed.The April Nymex gas futures contract settled at $2.223/MMBtu, down 11.5 cents day/day. May also fell 11.5 cents to close at $2.331.NGI’s Spot Gas National Avg. slipped 2.0 cents to $2.530 ahead of a break from cold weather.Monday futures trading extended losses from Friday. The prompt month lost 4% last week.NatGasWeather said American and European weather models heading into Monday trading agreed on the timing of swings in national demand the next two weeks, “starting with strong demand to open the week after frosty weather systems swept across” the country over the weekend. This, the firm said, supported prices early Monday.Both models also showed another chilly weather system racing across the northern United States March 27-29 for “a modest bump in national demand” before more spring-like temperatures arrive.

US natgas prices bounce off 1-month low to end 5% higher on short covering (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures rebounded more than 5% on Tuesday on short covering after prices hit their lowest in a month. Front-month gas futures for April delivery settled 12.5 cents higher, or up 5.6%, at $2.348 per million British thermal units (mmBtu) after hitting a fresh low since Feb. 23 earlier. Traders' attempt to push towards $2.00 mmBtu resulted in short covering because there were not enough bearish factors to justify that slide, said Robert DiDona of Energy Ventures Analysis, adding that demand was "relatively stable." "We'll find some bid side interest here in short-term given the weather outlook ... and what should be better LNG demand in the upcoming weeks." Oil prices rose, settling up more than 2% and extending a recovery from a 15-month low hit the previous day, as the rescue of Credit Suisse allayed concerns of a banking crisis that would hurt economic growth and cut fuel demand. Analysts said gas production declined earlier this year due in part to a price slump of 40% in January and 35% in December that persuaded several energy firms to reduce the number of rigs they were using to drill for gas. In addition, extreme cold in early February and late December cut gas output by freezing some oil and gas wells in several producing basins. Overall milder winter weather this year, however, has prompted utilities to leave more gas in storage than usual. Gas stockpiles were about 24% above their five-year average (2018-2022) during the week ended March 10 and were expected to end about 16% above normal during the colder-than-normal week ended March 17, according to federal data and analysts' estimates. "We still see significant price support further down the curve with Europe likely to be a strong buyer later in the summer amidst some tank topping ahead of the winter as Russian supply availability will be negligible in relation to past years," analysts at energy consulting firm Ritterbusch and Associates said in a note. "So, by and large, we still see some near-term price softening but will be looking to approach the long side by week's end depending upon the market's response to the EIA storage."

US natgas futures drop 8% as output rises, demand declines (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures fell about 8% on Wednesday, erasing the prior session's 6% gain, as output continues to rise while demand declines with the coming of seasonally milder, spring-like weather. That price decline came even as the amount of gas flowing to liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants was on track to hit a record high this week after Freeport LNG's plant in Texas exited an eight-month outage in February. Prices also dropped despite forecasts for cooler weather and higher heating demand next week than previously expected. Traders, however, noted that slightly colder weather in late March has much less of an impact on heating demand as colder weather in late January. Temperatures in the U.S. Lower 48 states will average around 49.2 degrees Fahrenheit (9.6 Celsius) over the next two weeks versus a 30-year average of 50.6 degrees F for this time of the year, according to data provider Refinitiv. Front-month gas futures for April delivery fell 17.7 cents, or 7.5%, to settle at $2.171 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), their lowest since hitting a 29-month closing low of $2.073 on Feb. 21. The gas market has been extremely volatile in recent weeks as traders bet on the latest weather forecasts - Wednesday's decline was only the biggest percentage drop since early March. Freeport LNG's export plant was on track to pull in about 1.2 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) of gas on Wednesday, down from 1.5 bcfd on Tuesday, according to Refinitiv data. Freeport LNG said on March 8 that it anticipated feedgas flows would rise and fall as the plant returns to full production over the "next few weeks." Total gas flows to all seven of the big U.S. LNG export plants rose to an average of 13.1 bcfd so far in March from 12.8 bcfd in February. That would top the monthly record of 12.9 bcfd in March 2022, before the Freeport LNG facility shut. The seven big U.S. LNG export plants, including Freeport LNG, can turn about 13.8 bcfd of gas into LNG. Refinitiv said average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states rose to 98.6 bcfd so far in March from 98.2 bcfd in February. That compares with a monthly record of 99.9 bcfd in November 2022. Analysts said production declined earlier this year due in part to gas price declines of 40% in January and 35% in December that persuaded several energy firms to reduce the number of rigs they were using to drill for gas. In addition, extreme cold in early February and late December cut gas output by freezing some oil and gas wells in several producing basins. Meteorologists projected the weather in the Lower 48 states would remain mostly colder-than-normal through April 6 after a couple of warmer-than-normal days on March 22-23. Refinitiv forecast U.S. gas demand, including exports, would slide from 115.0 bcfd this week to 109.1 bcfd next week. The forecast for next week was higher than Refinitiv's outlook on Tuesday.

Seasonally Steep Storage Pull Not Enough to Bolster Natural Gas Futures, Cash Prices - Natural gas futures flipped positive early Thursday after a government inventory report proved bullish relative to recent years. However, it ultimately was not enough to ease festering supply/demand imbalance concerns. The April Nymex gas futures contract lost 1.7 cents day/day and settled at $2.154/MMBtu. May fell 2.4 cents to $2.283. A day earlier, both shed more than 17 cents. NGI’s Spot Gas National Avg. on Tuesday fell 19.5 cents to $2.105. Cash prices have declined throughout the week. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) on Thursday reported a withdrawal of 72 Bcf natural gas from storage for the week ended March 17. Prior to the report, polls showed draw expectations in the 70s Bcf. NGI modeled a 76 Bcf withdrawal. The East and Midwest regions led with withdrawals of 36 Bcf and 29 Bcf, respectively, according to EIA. The South Central posted a pull of 6 Bcf. Mountain region stocks declined by 3 Bcf, while Pacific inventories were flat. From a price perspective, the net result compared bullishly with a pull of 55 Bcf a year earlier and a five-year average decline of 45 Bcf. The decrease lowered inventories to 1,900 Bcf and reflected above-average demand for the covered period – the final week of winter – when a cold snap enveloped several regions of the Lower 48. Winter weather extended into the start of the current week, and the next EIA print could again prove relatively steep. Early estimates for the week ending March 24 submitted to Reuters ranged from pulls of 38 Bcf to 76 Bcf, with an average decrease of 55 Bcf. The projections compare with an increase of 15 Bcf a year earlier and a five-year average decline of 17 Bcf. Still, stocks remained well above the year-earlier level of 1,396 Bcf and the five-year average of 1,549 Bcf. This followed a weeks-long stretch of relatively mild winter that spanned most of January through early March. Production also has hovered around 100 Bcf/d – close to record levels – and it held just shy of the century mark in estimates on Thursday.

Natural Gas Futures, Spot Prices Find Path Forward as Forecasts Tilt Colder - Natural gas futures forged ahead Friday, boosted by colder forecasts and expectations for back-to-back bullish storage prints relative to historic norms. The April Nymex gas futures contract settled at $2.216/MMBtu, up 6.2 cents day/day. May rose 7.8 cents to $2.361. NGI’s Spot Gas National Avg. gained 18.0 cents to $2.285. NatGasWeather said weather data, while inconsistent through most of the past week, flipped back colder heading into trading Friday. The European weather model added several heating degree days for the next two weeks. This, the firm said, advertised a cooler-than-normal pattern heading into April and provided a bump for futures. That noted, price movement was modest as cool temperatures in late March and early April rarely translate into robust demand. At the same time, high temperatures across the South are projected to range from the 60s to the 80s – shoulder season conditions that tend to minimize both heating and cooling demand. Friday’s prompt month close was notably below the previous week’s finish at $2.338. EBW Analytics Group’s Eli Rubin, senior analyst, said bulls also have in their favor Freeport LNG’s gradual return to full service. The liquefied natural gas export facility, knocked out of commission last year after a fire, recently drew 1 Bcf/d of gas from domestic supplies, adding to demand. However, the plant’s efforts to build back to capacity of nearly 2.4 Bcf/d have been slowed by complications. “Demand expectations have been parried by news concerning damage to one train at Freeport LNG during the long-awaited startup,” Rubin said Friday.

Lower 48 Oil and Natural Gas Permitting Rises, but Not Everywhere - Nearly 3,000 permits were issued in February to explore for U.S. oil and gas, a slight increase from January but down nearly 9% from a year ago, according to state and federal data. Evercore ISI, which tracks oil and gas permitting data, said 2,929 permits gained approval in February, up by 211 or 8% from January and 51.7% more than in February 2021. However, permitting fell from February 2022 by 8.8%.“Major losses were reported in the Powder River Basin,” analysts said, down by 68 from January or 26% month/month (m/m). Permitting also declined in smaller plays, off by 18% m/m or by 68. Permitting rose, though, in the Marcellus Shale, up by 199 or 151%, as well as in the Permian Basin, up by 70 from January or 6% higher m/m. Also seeing permitting gains from January were the Denver-Julesburg/Niobrara, up by 62 permits, and the Eagle Ford Shale, up by 46.The Permian held a 41% share of all issued permits, followed by the Eagle Ford with 11%, small basins at 8% and the Marcellus with a 7% share. When permits are issued, it usually takes three to six months to begin development onshore. By state, Texas led the way in permitting, up by 9% m/m or 112 to reach 1,385. Pennsylvania followed with 148 permits, up by 90 or 155% m/m. Colorado recorded 153 permits in February, which was 74 more than in January or 94% higher. Louisiana saw permits reach 102 in February, up by 41 or 67% higher m/m.“These gains offset major declines in issued permits in California to only 12,” said Evercore analysts. That was a 162 decline from January, or down by 93% m/m. Wyoming also saw a sharp decline to 229 permits issued, off by 71 or 24% lower m/m.During January, upstream oil and natural gas employment in Texas rose by 13.7% year/year to a total of 198,100 jobs, according to the Texas Independent Producers and Royalty Owners Association (TIPRO). The figure was up by 1,700 jobs from December 2022, the group said, citing data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.Demand for workers remains strong, TIPRO said. It cited 12,478 active unique job postings in the Texas oil and gas industry in January. These included 5,313 new job postings added during the month by companies.

U.S. Natural Gas Production, LNG Exports Expected to Grow Through 2050, EIA Forecasts - U.S. natural gas production and LNG exports are likely to grow between now and 2050 with domestic gas consumption dropping only slightly, according to the Energy Information Administration (EIA).All of the scenarios modeled in EIA’s latest Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) released last Thursday show the United States remaining a net exporter of natural gas and petroleum products through mid-century, driven by rising international demand.On the homefront, meanwhile, “Despite the shift toward renewable sources and batteries in electricity generation, domestic natural gas consumption remains relatively stable – ending recent growth in most cases,” researchers said. “Natural gas production, however, in some cases continues to grow in response to international demand for liquefied natural gas, supported by associated natural gas produced along with crude oil.”The AEO Reference Case shows annual LNG exports totaling 9.98 Tcf by 2050, up from 3.96 Tcf recorded in 2022.“With growth in more market based-LNG, the strength of the relationship between international natural gas prices and oil prices has eroded,” researchers said. “However, we expect that future oil prices will still affect additional LNG export capacity and overall export levels. “When the Brent price is high relative to the U.S. Henry Hub price, like in the High Oil Price case, building more LNG export capacity and exporting LNG are more economical than when the Brent price is lower relative to Henry Hub.”Lower 48 onshore and offshore dry gas production, meanwhile, totals 41.68 Tcf in 2050 in the Reference Case, up from 36.1 Tcf in 2022.Lower 48 natural gas consumption by the residential, commercial, industrial, transport and power generation segments totals 26.2 Tcf by 2050 in the Reference Case, versus 28.8 Tcf in 2022.

TC Eyes Haynesville Natural Gas as North America Growth Driver - As TC Energy Corp. plans to continue investing billions to expand North American natural gas pipeline capacity through the decade, CEO Francois Poirier said political momentum for permitting reform and an appreciation for infrastructure could pave the way for expansions and greenfield projects to boost LNG exports. On the sidelines of the CERAWeek by S&P Global Conference in Houston, Poirier told NGI that the Calgary-based midstream giant expects to see regulatory support for more infrastructure. Currently, around 75-80% of TC’s investments are connected to natural gas businesses. While other energy executives and some regulators at the conference emphasized a need for permitting reforms and more dialogue on the importance of natural gas projects, Poirier said he believed attitudes already were changing, particularly after the invasion of Ukraine. The volatility in Europe helped strike a “balance” between the focus on sustainability and energy security, he added. “It’s no accident, in my view, that in the United States, both parties are voicing support for reforming the permitting process,” Poirier said. “There is debate around the right way to do that, of course, but both sides acknowledge that it needs to improve because I think it’s a recognition of the understanding that the infrastructure is part of that supply chain of getting natural gas around the world.” Poirier said while some projects have faced increased opposition, some operators have finished substantial projects by working with stakeholders and regulators. Last year, TC placed $6 billion worth of infrastructure online and plans to launch a similar amount of infrastructure this year. Through the decade, Poirier said TC aims to boost North American takeaway capacity from a current level of 14 Bcf/d to 21 Bcf/d, a 50% increase. TC expects to hike capital expenditures by roughly 30% year/year this year, mostly focused on gas pipeline expansions. At the center of those expansions is the Gulf Coast, where Poirier said a combination of mostly brownfield expansions and some strategic newbuilds could help TC grow its U.S. market share by 5% to 35% at the end of the decade. Last year, TC sanctioned the Gillis Access Project, a 1.5 Bcf/d greenfield system in Louisiana to move more gas from the Haynesville Shale to the coast. Gillis is the “beginning of a header system,” the CEO said, to unlock growth, along with upgrades on the ANR system, as liquefied natural gas demand continues to expand. “When we look at our system, it’s possible that if we wanted to exceed that 35% market share in the United States and the growth in capacity transpires in the way I described, we would have to be looking at…certainly segments of greenfield projects,” Poirier said. “The key is looking at where expansions need to take place.” While some reforms may help pave the way for projects in the Gulf Coast, Poirier said, there are still limits to creating more infrastructure on the West Coast. For years, project developers and western producers have advocated for LNG exports from the western United States to help support regional production and forge a swift trade route to Asian markets. Instead, the route for more North American gas to Asian markets will likely have to come from developing projects in Canada and Mexico. “I think both Canada and Mexico have recognized an opportunity on the West Coast of the continent that the United States probably can’t capture,” Poirier said. TC is targeting mechanical completion of its Coastal GasLink project in Western Canada by the end of the year, which would link the Shell plc-led LNG Canada and possibly other facilities to feed gas from the Montney Shale. The company reported in February that crews working on the roughly 416-mile, 2.1 Bcf/d pipeline were progressing on schedule, but warned of inflationary impacts further ballooning the cost of completion.

Sempra Launches Port Arthur LNG Project -- Sempra today announced that its 70%-owned subsidiary, Sempra Infrastructure Partners reached a positive final investment decision (FID) for the development, construction and operation of the Port Arthur LNG Phase 1 project in Jefferson County, Texas. Sempra Infrastructure closed its joint venture with an affiliate of ConocoPhillips (NYSE: COP), as well as announced an agreement to sell an indirect, non-controlling interest in the project to an infrastructure fund managed by KKR. Additionally, Sempra Infrastructure announced the closing of the project's $6.8 billion non-recourse debt financing and the issuance of the final notice to proceed under the project's engineering, procurement and construction agreement. "With strong customers, top-tier equity sponsors in ConocoPhillips and KKR and a world class contractor in Bechtel, this project has the potential to become one of America's most significant energy infrastructure investments over time, while creating jobs and spurring continued economic growth across Texas and the Gulf Coast region." "Sempra's selection of Port Arthur as the location for a new natural gas liquefication and export terminal is a strategic decision that will cement Texas' position as the energy capital of the world," said Texas Gov. Greg Abbott. "With a highly skilled workforce and business-friendly climate, and as a national leader in LNG exports, Texas is the prime location to expand LNG operations to unleash the United States' full economic potential in such a critical industry. Expanding LNG is imperative to American energy security, and the State of Texas looks forward to working alongside Sempra to advance this mission and bring more jobs and greater opportunities to hardworking Texans."

Sempra will build $13B LNG facility in Port Arthur - Sempra said Monday that it will move ahead with construction of a $13 billion liquefied natural gas facility in East Texas, becoming the second company to reach a final investment decision on a Gulf Coast LNG facility in as many weeks. Sempra Infrastructure, a subsidiary of the San Diego-based energy conglomerate, also said it closed its joint venture with Houston-based ConocoPhillips, which agreed to buy more than a third of the Port Arthur LNG project's annual production and a 30 percent stake in the development. KKR, which owns 20 percent of Sempra Infrastructure, also agreed to buy a non-controlling interest in the project, the companies said. Port Arthur LNG picked up speed in the race to build export terminals late last year, announcing a wave of deals with buyers of the super-cooled gas. It aims to launch the 13.5-million-metric-ton facility in 2027. The Monday announcement follows one last week from Venture Global, which said it would begin to construct its $21 billion phase 2 at its Plaquemines facility in Louisiana. "With strong customers, top-tier equity sponsors in ConocoPhillips and KKR and a world class contractor in Bechtel, this project has the potential to become one of America's most significant energy infrastructure investments over time, while creating jobs and spurring continued economic growth across Texas and the Gulf Coast region," Sempra CEO Jeffrey W. Martin said in a statement. LNG from the Gulf Coast has played a key role in replacing natural gas in Western Europe, which sought new suppliers after Russia invaded Ukraine.

Spurred by Permian, ExxonMobil Ramps U.S. Refinery Expansion Near Houston - The largest U.S. refinery expansion in more than a decade has ramped up southeast of Houston at ExxonMobil’s Beaumont refining complex. The $2 billion project, considered one of the largest in the world, bumped up capacity for transportation fuels by 250,000 b/d, to total 630,000 b/d-plus. The last big refinery expansion was in 2012. “ExxonMobil maintained its commitment to the Beaumont expansion even through the lows of the pandemic, knowing consumer demand would return and new capacity would be critical in the post-pandemic economic recovery,” said President Karen McKee of ExxonMobil Product Solutions. “The new crude unit enables us to produce even more transportation fuels at a time when demand is surging. This expansion is the equivalent of a medium-sized refinery and is a key part of our plans to provide society with reliable, affordable energy products.” The refinery is connected to pipelines from ExxonMobil’s Permian Basin operations. Permian crude is processed at the Beaumont refinery, where the company manufactures finished products, including diesel, gasoline and jet fuel. With the completion of the Wink-to-Webster crude line, which moves Permian oil to markets near Houston, as well as Beaumont pipelines, the new crude unit is positioned to further capitalize on segregated crude from the Permian Delaware sub-basin, where most of ExxonMobil’s production is underway. As Permian oil output grew, construction on the Beaumont expansion began in 2019, involving 1,700 contractors. More than 50 full-time employees work at the expanded operations. ExxonMobil’s integrated operations in Beaumont also include chemical, lubricants and polyethylene production. More than 2,000 people work for ExxonMobil in the Beaumont area, with operations accounting for around one in every seven jobs in the region. Meanwhile, Calgary-based affiliate Imperial Oil Ltd. in January agreed to invest about $560 million to construct what could be the largest renewable diesel facility in Canada. The project at Imperial’s Strathcona refinery is expected to produce 20,000 b/d of renewable diesel, primarily from locally sourced feedstocks.

U.S. Oil Production Returns to 2023 Peak Level; Demand Rises Despite Fresh Worries --Domestic crude production climbed back to the high mark of the pandemic era as U.S. consumption of petroleum products increased and mounting Chinese demand fueled global growth expectations.American exploration and production (E&P) firms boosted output by 100,000 b/d to 12.3 million b/d for the week ended March 17, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) Weekly Petroleum Status Report on Wednesday.The print matched the 2023 peak and the production pinnacle since the onset of coronavirus outbreaks in early 2020. E&Ps posted a record 13.1 million b/d of output in March of that year, just prior to public health officials declaring the global pandemic. The latest EIA result also far exceeded the year-earlier level of 11.6 million b/d.Demand, meanwhile, increased 5% week/week, driven by gains in consumption of gasoline and distillate fuels. Crude exports, however, declined modestly, allowing inventories for the March 17 period, excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, to increase by 1.1 million bbl from the previous week. At 481.2 million bbl, stocks were 8% above the five-year average at the close of last week.While the latest week of data pointed to a spring pickup in domestic demand, consumption has proven relatively light so far this year. This developed alongside a slowing economy and forecasts for a potential recession in 2023.Such concerns were amplified over the past two weeks by the failures of Silicon Valley Bank in California and Signature Bank in New York – meltdowns that exposed weaknesses in the banking system. Following failures, other banks tend to pull back on lending. In turn, businesses and consumers, unable to get credit, slow their investments and spending. Against such a backdrop, the economy historically has stalled, as analysts at RBC Capital Markets noted.However, while recession risk is elevated, they do not see reason for panic in the financial system – in the United States or globally. That’s because the analysts view the recent failures as isolated, the result of overconcentration in the technology sector in Silicon Valley Bank’s case and cryptocurrency in Signature’s.

U.S. Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm said that refilling the country’s SPR would be difficult this year and may take several years - The oil market was in the midst of four day winning streak early in the session but sold off sharply ahead of the close under the weight of some bearish news. U.S. Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm said that refilling the country’s SPR would be difficult this year and may take several years. Her comments pressured the market on concerns about a potential oversupply, with the Energy Department planning to proceed with an additional release of 26 million barrel as part of its congressional mandate. Early in the session, the market was supported by Goldman Sachs stating that Chinese demand continued to increase across the commodity complex, with oil demand surpassing 16 million bpd. The market was also well supported in light of strong jobs data and a weaker dollar that fed fuel demand hopes. The oil market breached a downward trending resistance line at $70.60 and rallied to a high of $71.67 by mid-day, as the dollar index traded at its lowest level since February 3rd. However, the market sold off and posted a low of $69.18 ahead of the close. The May WTI contract settled down 94 cents at $69.96 and the May Brent contract settled down 78 cents at $75.91. The product market were mixed, with the heating oil market settling down 5.56 cents at $2.6847 and the RB market settling up 1.27 cents at $2.6059. U.S. Energy Secretary, Jennifer Granholm, told lawmakers that it could take years for the United States to refill the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, after sales directed by President Joe Biden last year pushed the stockpile to the lowest level since the early 1980s. Biden administration officials have said they want to refill the reserve, after last year's historic sale of 180 million barrels, when the oil price consistently is around $70/barrel. Oil from that sale sold about $94 per barrel. Last month, the Energy Department said it is moving forward with a sale of 26 million barrels from the SPR that was mandated by Congress in earlier years to help fund the federal budget. The Energy Secretary said that sale, in which oil will be delivered from April 1st to June 20th, and maintenance at the reserve at two sites will make it difficult to buy back oil this year. She said it could take years to get the reserve back to the level it was before the 180 million barrel sale.Goldman Sachs reiterated its bullish view on commodities as a banking crisis has yet to spill over into physical markets. Goldman said it was confident in its commodity 'supercycle thesis’, with supply constraints becoming pronounced later this year, prompting another rise in prices, adding it favored metals over oil near term. The bank said that Chinese demand continued to increase across the commodity complex, with oil demand surpassing 16 million bpd. It forecast Brent crude prices will reach $97/barrel in the second quarter of 2024. It said the recent pullback in oil was due to financial risks rather than fundamental supply-demand factors and oil was currently "oversold".Russia’s Deputy Prime Minister, Alexander Novak, said a previously announced cut of 500,000 bpd in oil production would be from an output level of 10.2 million bpd in February. He said that would mean Russia is aiming to produce 9.7 million bpd between March and June, when the production cut will be in force. He also said that Russia had not received any proposals from members of the OPEC+ group to change the terms of an existing production cut agreement. Russia’s 500,000 bpd voluntary cuts are on top of the OPEC+ deal and were announced last month following the imposition of new Western sanctions on Russia’s oil exports.

EPA Officials Visit Texas’ Barnett Shale, Ground Zero of the Fracking Boom - —The Barnett Shale, rich in natural gas, lies inconveniently beneath sprawling suburbs of the Dallas-Fort Worth Metroplex. The fracking boom began here almost 20 years ago, leaving in its wake a mixture of wells and compressors in close proximity to residential neighborhoods and strip malls. When officials from the EPA followed community members and representatives of the nonprofit Liveable Arlington on a tour of the area Thursday, the visit was the first for the federal environmental regulators based nearby in Dallas. “What I did learn is how close the facilities are to the daycare center, schools and houses. They’re so close it was striking,” said Earthea Nance, administrator of EPA region six, from a liquor store parking lot between a high school and a gas compressor facility in Arlington. “We’ll pay more attention to what’s happening here.”Only Los Angeles County in California has more residents living near oil and gas wells than Tarrant County, according to the Oil and Gas Threat Map from Earthworks and FrackTracker, with about 1 million county residents located within a half mile of active oil and gas wells, compressors and processors. The EPA officials saw drill sites adjacent to day cares centers, and others surrounded by apartment complexes. A large gas compressor station fumed across the street from a high school, and another stood beside a popular fishing spot. “What’s happened here is a real tragedy. It’s happened in a complete regulatory vacuum,” said Ranjana Bhandari, founder of Liveable Arlington, who hosted the tour. “There are minimal rules, there is no monitoring at all, enforcement is practically nonexistent. If there are severe emissions that make people sick there are no real remedies.”Bhandari, a former college professor of economics, moved to Arlington in 1993 following job opportunities for her husband, a particle physicist. About a decade later, new technology unlocked a wealth of hydrocarbons trapped inside porous subterranean shale formations, and the Barnett Shale of North Texas was the first pierced by horizontal drills as a new age of oil and gas production began. “None of us understood when it began how big their footprint would be,” Bhandari said. “For the longest time I thought somebody would come save us.”

Texas Natural Gas Big Part of Mexico Nearshoring Appeal — The big investment news in Mexico is Elon Musk’s intention to build a ~$5 billion Tesla plant in the thriving northern city of Monterrey. Mexico President López Obrador brought the issue to national attention when he expressed his objections to Musk’s choice of Monterrey, due to what he said was water scarcity. But Musk was adamant, and spoke personally with López Obrador over the matter. Unlike locations in the south of the country, Monterrey and the State of Nuevo León in general is the area of Mexico with the best conditions for access to reliable and efficient energy. Natural gas flows in abundance from Texas. It arrives cheaply, continuously and through many pipelines. Nueva Era, Kinder Morgan, and Sistrangas with injection points in Reynosa, Argüelles and Cd. Camargo all flow to this industrial area. There are also numerous power generation plants that ensure the stability of the regional power grid. With an energy market interconnected with the United States, the proximity and accessibility of natural gas supply are critical elements that provide comparative economic advantages over other areas in Mexico. The above is true with or without the impulse of nearshoring – the practice of transferring a business operation to a nearby country. But the business world in Mexico has high expectations about the country’s economic future under the assumption that this global relocation of production processes will benefit investment in Mexico. The proximity to the U.S. market is a unique geographical circumstance. But it is not enough to make the manufacturing of goods viable and profitable. In particular, the relationship between nearshoring and energy security is decisive for investment growth. A reliable supply of gas and electricity with diversified suppliers favors stable and predictable energy prices. Competitiveness and the existence of hedging mechanisms is crucial for companies to reduce their general operating expenses. One worry is price interference. Price controls affect the sustainability of the energy infrastructure, which in turn will lead to deficiencies in the operation and eventually interruptions in the delivery of energy. Power and gas flow without variations is an essential condition for industries that require high energy consumption. Electronic component manufacturing, data centers and logistics control cannot tolerate minimal interruptions. An unstable power supply is an operational risk that can lead to financial losses and damage the reputation of companies. Not having gas storage that mitigates or corrects the effects on gas delivery in aberrational cases such as the winter storm Uri 2021 will undoubtedly be an aspect to be evaluated by those who plan to move their operations from Asia to North America.

Despite Rules, New Mexico Oil and Gas Producers Keep Polluting - New Mexico has increased its oil production tenfold since 2010 and was the first major oil-producing state to surpass its pre-pandemic output levels — dramatically so. And the evidence is everywhere. At night, strings of drilling rigs light the plains east of Highway 285 between Carlsbad and Loving. In the middle of the day, driving Highway 128 across the rolling, tan, treeless plain between Loving and Jal, the sun glints on drilling rigs every couple of miles. Those rigs continue in all directions down dirt side roads, and orange flares burn off natural gas at new wells and compressor stations. The industry had a record-crushing year in New Mexico in 2022. COVID-19 triggered a steep production decline in 2020, when oil and gas prices dropped so much that the state encouraged producers to shut in wells, keeping money in the ground. But state oil production at the end of 2022 was 36% higher than its pre-pandemic peak, and natural gas production was 32% higher. That extra production coupled with high oil and gas prices have bumped New Mexico’s state budget to $9.57 billion — another record. Natural gas is measured in thousands of cubic feet (Mcf), and in 2022 oil and gas producers reported losing 21.6 million Mcf of the stuff. It’s a fraction of the total taken out of the ground, but with an approximate market value of $138 million, it’s not inconsequential. Plus, the state lost around $27 million in tax and royalty revenue while the lost gas contributes to New Mexico’s climate crisis — which the state does pay for. But the true loss is likely steeper than the state’s official numbers reflect.A Capital & Main review of data from the New Mexico Oil Conservation Division shows dozens of companies venting and flaring natural gas from wells across the state — nearly 39,000 times between February 2022 and February of this year — despite recent rules banning the practice except for emergencies. All of this data is self-reported by the companies as part of the state’s groundbreaking Methane Waste Rule, which has two overarching goals: to end routine venting and flaring of natural gas, and to keep at least 98% of the climate-damaging fuel in pipelines and out of the air.

In Utah, pipeline protests could now come with five years in prison - In Utah, protests that hinder the functioning of fossil fuel infrastructure could now lead to at least five years in prison. The new rules make Utah the 19th state in the country to pass legislation with stiffer penalties for protesting at so-called critical infrastructure sites, which include oil and gas facilities, power plants, and railroads. The new laws proliferated in the aftermath of the Standing Rock protests against the Dakota Access Pipeline in 2017.Utah’s legislature passed two separate bills containing stricter penalties for tampering with or damaging critical infrastructure earlier this month. House Bill 370 makes intentionally “inhibiting or impeding the operation of a critical infrastructure facility” a first degree felony, which is punishable by five years to life in prison. A separate bill allows law enforcement to charge a person who “interferes with or interrupts critical infrastructure” with a third degree felony, punishable by up to five years in prison. Both bills were signed into law by the governor last week. Of the two bills, First Amendment and criminal justice advocates are particularly concerned about HB 370 due to its breadth, the severity of penalties, and its potential to curb environmental protests. The bill contains a long list of facilities that are considered critical infrastructure including grain mills, trucking terminals, and transmission facilities used by federally licensed radio or television stations. It applies both to facilities that are operational and those under construction. Since the bill doesn’t define activities that may be considered “inhibiting or impeding” operations at a facility, environmental protesters may inadvertently find themselves in the crosshairs of the legislation, according to environmental and civil liberties advocates. Protesters engaging in direct action often chain themselves to equipment, block roadways, or otherwise disrupt operations at fossil fuel construction sites. Under the new legislation, such activities could result in a first degree felony charge.“This bill could be used to prohibit pipeline protests like we saw with the Dakota [Access] Pipeline project,” said Mark Moffat, an attorney with the Utah Association of Criminal Defense Lawyers, referring to the 2017 protests at Standing Rock in North Dakota. “It elevates what would be basically a form of vandalism or criminal mischief under the laws of the state of Utah to a first-degree felony.”A first-degree felony is typically reserved for violent crimes like murder and sexual assault. Moffat said that the state’s sentencing guidelines are indeterminate, which means the amount of time someone spends in prison is at the discretion of the Board of Pardons.“When you increase these to first degree felonies, you increase the likelihood of incarceration,” said Moffat. “In my experience, those people are going to go to prison as opposed to receiving a term of probation,” he said. Similar bills are pending in at least five other states, including Georgia, Illinois, Minnesota, Idaho, and North Carolina. These bills include various misdemeanor and felony charges for trespassing, disrupting, or otherwise interfering with operations at critical infrastructure facilities.

North Dakota Senate advances tax breaks for fracking (AP) - The North Dakota Senate passed a bill Monday that would give tax incentives to oil companies for “restimulating” old oil wells in the state through hydraulic fracturing, also known as fracking. Fracking involves injecting high-pressure water deep underground to extract oil or gas from rock. Environmental groups have long opposed the practice, saying it can pollute groundwater and contributes to climate change. Supporters said the North Dakota bill would benefit mineral owners and the state, whereas opponents said oil companies can afford to restimulate wells without a tax break. Restimulation refers to the process of converting an existing oil well — which has produced oil for a while but has experienced a decline in oil production — into an updated oil well with “modern completion treatment” to enhance oil production, according to Marathon Oil Company representative Zac Weis, who testified in support of the bill this month. The process involves treating an old oil well with fluid under pressure to create fractures in the ground and increase oil production, according to the bill. Republican Sen. Dale Patten, of Watford City, said the bill would reduce the oil extraction tax to 2% for a restimulated well’s first 75,000 barrels of production, or for the first 18 months of production — whichever comes first. Then, the tax would go back to the full 5%. “Restimulations increase the ultimate recoverable barrels of oil, meaning more economic value to the state, the mineral owners and the operators,” Patten said in support of the bill. “It reduces environmental impacts for continued use of existing infrastructure, like well site locations and natural gas pipelines.”

8th Circuit delivers climate blow to Big Oil - Oil and gas companies on Thursday lost what may have been their best shot at creating disagreement between federal appeals courts — a key consideration for Supreme Court review — on a jurisdictional issue that has the potential to quash a broad set of climate challenges launched by local governments that want industry to pay up for the impacts of a warming planet. The finding from the 8th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals that Minnesota’s case belongs before state, rather than federal, judges is the sixth such ruling from courts across the country in nearly two dozen climate liability lawsuits. Exxon Mobil Corp., Chevron Corp. and other companies have attempted to remove the cases to federal court, where industry lawyers believe they are more likely to prevail. “Our sister circuits rejected [industry’s arguments] in each case,” Judge Jonathan Kobes wrote. “Today, we join them.” The three-judge panel wrote that Minnesota’s suit rests solely on state law, including claims of common law fraud and violations of various consumer protection statutes. The judges wrote that “there is no substitute federal cause of action.” Oil companies could be on the hook for hundreds of billions of dollars if they lose the climate liability cases. The 8th Circuit noted that allowing Minnesota to recover damages for injuries caused by climate change “may have the practical effect of impacting the energy companies’ ability to produce and sell fossil fuels, thereby affecting any federal interest that relies in part on the availability and affordability of energy.” But the court quoted a similar ruling from the 10th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals to say that those types of arguments would be raised once the case is heard on the merits, not during a dispute about the proper venue for the lawsuit. The 8th Circuit also rejected the energy companies’ argument that the activity causing injury in the case is not the production of fossil fuels, “but rather the alleged ‘misinformation campaign’ carried out via false advertising and misrepresentations in Minnesota.” The decision by the three judges — all Trump appointees — comes as a blow to the fossil fuel industry, which had hoped the court would rule in its favor, creating a “circuit split,” or disagreement between appellate courts, that could help the oil industry attract the attention of the Supreme Court in its bid to dismiss the climate litigation.

Black, Latinx Californians face highest exposure to oil and gas wells | Berkeley News -More than 1 million Californians live near active oil or gas wells, potentially exposing them to drilling-related pollution that can contribute to asthma, preterm births and a variety of other health problems.A new study appearing today in the journal GeoHealth finds that these Californians are disproportionately Black, Latinx or low-income, and Black Californians are more likely to live near the most intensive oil and gas operations.“When we look across the state of California over the past 15 years, Black, Latinx and low-income people consistently were more likely to live near oil and gas wells,” said study first author David González, a President’s Postdoctoral Fellow at the University of California, Berkeley. “Black people, in particular, were more likely to be in places that had the most intensive oil and gas production, which can lead to more exposure to harmful chemicals.”The study also found that while oil and gas production in California has declined over the past 15 years, the rate of decrease has been slower near racially marginalized communities. Earlier work led by González found that disparities in exposure to oil and gas wells can be traced back to the 1930s in Los Angeles and linked to the historical policy of redlining.“What’s emerging is that oil and gas wells have been disproportionately impacting racially marginalized and low-income communities in California for generations,” González said. “We found that redlining was strongly associated with the disproportionate siting of oil and gas wells in historically racially marginalized communities, and we’re still seeing disproportionate siting and production of oil and gas infrastructure in many of these same neighborhoods today.”Oil and gas production is a complex process that can release an array of hazardous pollutants: Drilling rigs and other heavy machinery emit diesel exhaust, active wells can release toxic volatile organic compounds, and in some cases, the chemicals that are used to extract oil from underground reservoirs can seep into the water supply, endangering those who rely on groundwater for drinking. Operating heavy drilling machinery in residential areas can also create other stressors, like light and sound pollution.Mounting evidence suggests that these pollutants pose a variety of health risks to those who live close to wells — that distance usually is defined as living within 1 kilometer (km), or a little over half a mile.The California climate measures signed into law last September by Gov. Gavin Newsom contained provisions that would ban new drilling within approximately 1 km of homes, schools, hospitals and parks and provide protections for those living near existing wells. But in early February, oil companies succeeded in putting the law on hold until voters decide its fate in a November 2024 ballot referendum.

Chubb Mandates Natural Gas, Oil Clients Reduce Methane Emissions to Obtain Insurance - Chubb Ltd., the world’s largest publicly traded property and casualty insurer, has updated underwriting criteria for natural gas and extraction projects to require clients to reduce methane emissions. The Swiss-based insurer, which collaborated with stakeholders on the criteria, has most of its business in the United States. “The methane-related underwriting criteria that Chubb has adopted – the first of their kind in our industry – are focused on the balance between the need to transition to a low-carbon economy and society’s need for energy security,” CEO Evan G. Greenberg said. “As a company, we are accelerating and expanding our climate-related initiatives without committing to sweeping net-zero pledges for which, in our judgment, there is not a viable path to achieve.” Greenberg said Chubb “will continue to pursue in earnest a responsible, realistic and science-based approach.” The new criteria “encourages” producers to adopt technologies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. “We know that many of our clients in the industry are already committed to limiting methane emissions, and we will work to expand those commitments.” Many major natural gas and oil producers have made commitments to reducing methane emissions, including BP plc, Chevron Corp., ExxonMobil and Shell plc. U.S. natural gas pipeline infrastructure companies, including Williams, are also aiming to reduce emissions.

‘Climate homicide’: Could Big Oil be sued for disaster deaths? - Oil majors are facing civil lawsuits in courts from Hoboken to Honolulu that could cost the industry hundreds of billions of dollars for its role in producing planet-warming emissions.But can petroleum producers be held criminally responsible for climate-related deaths that occurred after companies allegedly deceived the public about the dangers of burning fossil fuels? A new academic paper says they can, and authors of the research say the novel legal theory — known as “climate homicide” — is already stirring interest from prosecutors.“We have some indication they’re at least listening and curious,” said David Arkush, director of Public Citizen’s climate program and a fellow at the Roosevelt Institute. “To someone who knows the criminal law, there’s a moment of ‘What!?’ and then, ‘It’s OK. It’s not crazy.’“The paper, “Climate Homicide: Prosecuting Big Oil for Climate Death” — written by Arkush and Donald Braman, an associate professor at George Washington University Law School — will be published next spring in the Harvard Environmental Law Review.“We concluded there aren’t really any legal or factual barriers to prosecution,” Arkush said.He added: “The real potential barriers are political, cultural. Does this strike people as just too out there? Do the fossil fuel companies have too much power, culturally, politically, economically? Those are the real barriers.”

U.S. oil exports to Europe hit record in March on steep discounts (Reuters) -U.S. crude exports to Europe have hit a record 2.1 million barrels per day on average so far this month, spurred by wide discounts to the global benchmark and weaker oil demand by U.S. refineries. Record exports to Europe and China this month reflect the rise of United States in crude oil trade and solidifies its role supplying Europe following Russia's invasion of Ukraine. A holiday freeze knocked out operations at a dozen U.S. refineries, increasing scheduled plant maintenance and reducing crude oil demand that widened U.S. crude's discount to benchmark Brent. The refining slowdown weighed on U.S. West Texas Intermediate oil prices, while Brent was supported by declining availability of Russian barrels as well as complications with Norway's Johan Sverdrup flows, Kpler analyst Matt Smith said. The spread between West Texas Intermediate and Brent widened to more than $7 at the end of January, the steepest discount so far this year, prompting a flurry of deals as a wider spread makes U.S. oil cheaper for foreign buyers. Volumes of crude oil to Europe, loaded on very large crude carriers (VLCC) that typically carry about 2 million barrels, this month look set to reach a record high, according to Kpler data. Advantage Virtue, a VLCC chartered by BP BP.L and loaded at Corpus Christi, Texas, on March 11, was headed to Britain and set to discharge at the end of this month, according to Refinitiv Eikon data. Front Alta, another VLCC chartered by Occidental Petroleum, was headed to Rotterdam, according to Refinitiv and Kpler ship tracking. Occidental declined to comment. BP declined to comment on exports, but pointed to its energy outlook forecastingU.S. oil production growth over the rest of this decade before declining and OPEC competing to increase its market share. Export demand has aided prices for some top U.S. crude grades. The average price for WTI Midland, pegged at the top U.S. shale basin, has gained nearly 50% so far this year compared to the previous quarter, while WTI at East Houston has gained about 30%.

This could be Big Oil's last surge - President Joe Biden can't quit fossil fuels even though he knows he needs to. Biden, who's made fighting the climate crisis a priority, broke a key campaign promise this month by authorizing one of the largest-ever oil-drilling projects on federal land in an untouched area of Alaska known as North Slope. Biden's move reflects the fix the world is in after Russia's war in Ukraine sparked global energy shortages that sent oil and gas prices soaring last year. Western oil giants cashed in with a record $221 billion in combined profits, raising what experts told Insider are a pair of trillion-dollar questions: How swift will the transition to clean energy be and when will the era of Big Oil come to a close? It may come sooner than today's massive fossil-fuel profits suggest, half a dozen analysts said. The industry's long-term trajectory is downward, even if there are more boom-and-bust cycles along the way. They caution that the pace of the energy transition still remains uncertain given that today the world runs on 80% fossil fuels and only 20% renewable energy. In general, however, oil and gas companies aren't plowing profits into undeveloped drilling sites the way ConocoPhillips is with the so-called Willow project in Alaska, analysts said. In many cases, companies are using the money to try to increase production in existing fields, while also buying back their stock to boost share prices. Oil demand could peak in the early 2030s in part because of the rise of renewables and electric vehicles, while natural gas' horizon is thought to be closer to 2045 because heavy industry doesn't have cleaner fuels to turn to at the scale needed. "In the grand scheme of the oil industry, Willow isn't that large a project," said Andrew Logan, the senior director of oil and gas at Ceres, a sustainability nonprofit that works with investors. Willow is expected to max out at 180,000 barrels of oil a day, or about 1.5% of US production, and generate at least 239 million metric tons of greenhouse-gas emissions over 30 years — equivalent to the annual greenhouse-gas emissions of 64 coal plants. A White House official previously told Insider the government's options to block the project were limited because of leases granted to ConocoPhillips by prior administrations. The official added that ConocoPhillips will give up 68,000 acres of existing leases and drilling was limited to three of five proposed sites.

Oil industry activity likely triggered large Alberta earthquake, finds study -- A new study by Stanford University researchers has found that one of the most powerful earthquakes ever recorded in Alberta, Canada, was likely caused by oil and gas activity. On November 30, 2022, a 5.6-magnitude earthquake shook the remote Peace River region in northwestern Alberta, a part of Canada's oil sands region. Although people felt shaking more than 400 miles away, residents and businesses have not reported injuries or damage. Energy regulators for the region described the earthquake as a natural tectonic event. A rigorous new analysis by Stanford geophysicists suggests, however, that oil industry activity—specifically, disposal of wastewater deep underground—most likely triggered the tremor. Three slightly smaller earthquakes struck the same area again on March 16, less than a mile from last year's big quake. Researchers have long linked earthquakes to fracking and wastewater disposal in other parts of Alberta and British Columbia, provinces that straddle the Canadian Rocky Mountains. The new study, published March 23 in Geophysical Research Letters, is the first to link such a large earthquake to human activities this far away from the mountain range, in a region where industry centers on exploiting oil sands rather than fracking for natural gas. The results have safety implications for ongoing and future energy-related operations, such as the underground storage of carbon dioxide to help mitigate climate change. "Earthquakes of similar magnitude to the Peace River event could be damaging, even deadly, if they happened in more populated areas," said study lead author Ryan Schultz, who recently completed his Ph.D. in geophysics at the Stanford Doerr School of Sustainability. "It is important that we understand the mechanics involved and how to avoid inducing more of these events." "The Peace River earthquake caught our interest because it occurred in an unusual place," said co-author William Ellsworth, a research professor of geophysics and co-director of the Stanford Center for Induced and Triggered Seismicity. "Multiple lines of compelling evidence point to this quake as being man-made." Over recent decades, scientists have documented hundreds of earthquakes induced by oil and gas operations worldwide, especially in the United States. To assess the origins of the Peace River earthquake, the Stanford team and colleagues employed a well-proven approach that considers seismic events' details and context, including location, depth, timing, regional history of background earthquakes, and records of industrial activity. Operations in the Peace River area center on extracting a thick, black, sticky form of oil known as bitumen. To mobilize the tar-like substance for easier pumping up to the surface, workers inject huge amounts of hot water or solvents underground, where it can mix with heavy metals, hydrocarbons, and harmful chemicals. The most economical way to dispose of this wastewater is by re-injecting it underground. Since bitumen recovery operations began in the Peace River study area in the 1980s, about 40,000 Olympic swimming pools (100 million cubic meters) of wastewater have been injected underground. The researchers compared publicly available information about wastewater disposal activities in Peace River to ground deformation measured by satellite and regional seismic monitors. "The Alberta government deserves credit for its transparency for providing public access to production and disposal data," said Ellsworth. Overall, the results tied frequent, minor earthquakes to wastewater disposal from bitumen recovery going back almost a decade, strongly implicating the big November 2022 temblor as well. A key piece of evidence came via satellite observations, which showed a dramatic 3.4-centimeter uplift in the ground at the time of the November quake. This elevation change proved consistent with seismic movement along a previously undocumented fault line—a fracture between giant blocks of rock deep underground where most earthquakes occur. According to the study, the high volume of disposed wastewater had increased water pressure on the fault, weakened it, and made it prone to slip.

Oil spill on Kitimat River under investigation - The District of Kitimat responded to an oil spill on the Kitimat River across the street from the Chevron card lock last week. The District said it started around noon on the morning of Thursday, March 16. Other sources said it started earlier around 10:15. It is unclear if the leak has been fully contained as of press time (Sunday evening), but the DOK said drinking water had not been contaminated. It is performing an investigation into who is responsible for the oil spill. Cameron Orr, business and communications manager for the District of Kitimat said “public works have been flushing the storm drain and they’re still figuring out where specifically the petroleum product might have come from. We don’t have an exact source, we just know it’s coming out of a storm drain.” Provincial partners, such as the Ministry of Environment and Northern Health Services were alerted, as well as downstream industrial users. No formal notice to residents was sent out. District workers were also examining storm drains for oil leaking upriver, in Service Centre, across the street from the Northern Sentinel office. It is unknown if the leaks were connected or just how widespread the spill was.

Clashes in Ecuador drive state-controlled company to declare force majeure at trio of Amazon fields -- Ecuador state-owned oil company Petroecuador has declared force majeure at a trio of onshore fields in the Orellana province in the Amazon region amid conflicts with local communities. The company, which is also dealing with the aftermath of Saturday’s 6.8-magnitude earthquake at its oil and gas operations in the southern part of the country, said it will request the support of the armed forces in order to protect its strategic facilities and safeguard workersAccording to Petroecuador, the decision to implement force majeure at blocks 16-67, 43-ITT and 61 comes after months of conflicts with indigenous communities that are preventing the normal development of hydrocarbons activities and “drastically affecting production.”

Europe makes moderate progress reducing gas demand: Kemp (Reuters) - Europe has experienced a mild winter, but the region also managed to cut its temperature-adjusted gas consumption in response to high prices, public information campaigns and industrial closures. The European Union’s seven-largest consumers (Germany, Italy, France, Netherlands, Spain, Belgium and Poland) cut total consumption by 22% in the three months from October to December compared with a year earlier. Milder temperatures accounted for most of this reduction, with the number of heating degree days in each country down by an average of around 16% between October and December compared with 2021. But there was also a moderate cut in underlying temperature-adjusted consumption, attributable to a combination of customer response to high prices, public information campaigns to cut demand, and industry shutdowns. October was unusually warm across the region and none of the major consuming countries made significant progress in reducing underlying demand. But as temperatures turned colder in November and December, there was more headway in cutting underlying consumption. Germany, the region’s largest consumer, was slightly colder in December 2022 than in December 2021, with the number of heating degree days up by 5%. But consumption per degree day was cut by 19% ensuring total consumption was still down by 14% compared with a year earlier. At the other extreme, Italy, the region’s second-largest consumer, was mild in December, with 18% fewer degree days. But the country also managed to reduce its consumption per degree day by 8% ensuring total consumption fell by 24%. Every country reduced its temperature-adjusted use in December, with cuts ranging from 19% in Germany and Spain, to 17% in Belgium and the Netherlands, 13% in Poland, 11% in France, and 8% in Italy. The pressure to adjust has fallen most heavily on energy-intensive industries, including chemicals, fertiliser, steel, ceramics, glass, smelters and greenhouse horticulture. In many of these industries, consumption has fallen sharply through short-time working and plant closures, which resulted in significant gas conservation. But with the burden falling so heavily on industry, the implication is that savings by power generators and households have been relatively modest after allowing for the warm winter.

What the dramatic drop in European demand for natural gas showed us --When Russian natural gas supplies to Europe dropped dramatically in the wake of the Ukraine-Russia conflict, Europeans and their governments wondered how they could remain warm through the coming winter. After all, Russian natural gas constituted 40 percent of the European Union's total supply. The only near-term solutions were to cut natural gas consumption and import more liquefied natural gas (LNG). But with a limited ability to accept LNG, cuts in consumption seemed inevitable.While some industrial facilities temporarily closed due to high gas prices and some companies said they were relocating gas-intensive production outside Europe, much of the reduction in natural gas consumption was due to the mild winter weather and the reduction in use by households. (Some of reduction was due to fuel switching as electric utilities substituted coal for natural gas though the numbers have yet to be compiled.) As a result, prices of natural gas in Europe (using Dutch TTF Gas Futures as a proxy) fell by 80 percent from the end of September until now. Europe avoided the worst.Last year Europe as a whole decreased its natural gas consumption by 13 percent, a hefty decline. Its use over the recent winter declined by 19 percent from the 5-year average.There are certainly challenges ahead. The price of natural gas remains elevated, at over €40 per megawatt-hour. Two years ago the price stood just under €19 and in the decade prior to the outbreak of the pandemic never traded above €29. What the Europeans have shown is that it is possible in very short timespans to cut energy consumption dramatically without creating catastrophic conditions. There were certainly hardships for those with lower incomes, but European society did not come to a halt. That suggests there was still a lot of energy being wasted before the reductions and that intelligent planning might cut a lot more. All of this is doubly meaningful to Americans because residents of the European Union use HALF as much energy per capita as Americans and yet still found room to cut. That implies that there is considerable energy waste in the United States that might be avoided without sacrificing everyday comforts if we only had the will to do something about it.

EU Looks To Extend Natural Gas Consumption Cuts For Another Year -The European Commission on Monday proposed extending the emergency measure which targets a 15% reduction in the bloc’s natural gas consumption by another 12 months to the end of the 2023/2024 winter heating season.The existing regulation to have natural gas demand cut by 15% expires at the end of this month.Today’s proposal from the European Commission for another year of gas savings will be discussed by energy ministers at the Transport, Telecommunications and Energy Council (TTE) Council on March 28. EU Commissioner for Energy Kadri Simson already signaled to Ministers in February that a proposal along these lines was to be expected.Despite the coming end to this winter’s heating season and the historically high levels of gas in storage across Europe, global natural gas markets are expected to remain tight in the months ahead, with a number of possible risks and challenges, including weather, global LNG demand, and macroeconomic conditions, the European Commission said today.“Commission analysis finds that, in order to fully compensate for the permanent decrease in Russian gas, a continuation of the gas demand reduction is needed to complement the additional LNG and pipeline gas sourced from other countries, and new renewable capacity installed since early 2022,” it added.The European Union managed to beat its target for cutting gas demand this winter, Eurostat data showed last month. According to the data, the EU’s winter demand has so far dropped by 19.3% compared to the five-year average, beating the 15% goal it set for itself to help it survive the winter without gas shortages. “Our joint efforts on #gasdemandreduction have been key to get through winter safely. But global gas markets are expected to remain tight & we must stay vigilant. Continued demand reduction will ensure our preparedness & allow us to reach more easily the 90% gas storage target,” EU Commissioner Simson said on Twitter, commenting on the proposal for extending the target for reduction of gas demand.

China Backs Russia's Draft UN Resolution On Nord Stream Probe - China is backing Russian efforts to get to the bottom of the Nord Stream pipeline sabotage attacks, with state-run Xinhua on Wednesday announcing the foreign ministry's support for a UN Security Council (UNSC) draft resolution.Russia has gotten more vocal about alleging that Washington was behind it, following the publication of legendary journalist Seymour Hersh's report which detailed a CIA and US Navy covert op in coordination with Norway's intelligence services. Citing a foreign ministry spokesperson, Xinhua reported "Wang made the remarks at a regular press briefing in response to a media query on Russia's draft resolution at the UNSC in February calling for an international independent investigation commission on the gas pipeline incident.""Russia is said to have started the silence procedure on the draft, but the United States and some other Western members of the UNSC broke silence and objected to such a commission."Moscow and Beijing have taken Washington's resistance to its resolution as a sign of guilt, while also suggesting Western allies are obfuscating: Wang said China has also noticed the attitude of some Western members of the UNSC and hopes they will truly abandon geopolitical selfish interest, earnestly fulfill the obligations and responsibilities of UNSC members, and constructively participate in the consultations of the draft to make positive efforts for an early consensus on the resolution.

French workers extend strike at three LNG import terminals -Regasification operations at three liquefied natural gas terminals owned and operated by gas giant Engie’s subsidiary Elengy are no nearer restarting after trade unions voted to continue their stoppage for another seven days. A strike at Elengy’s three LNG terminals was extended to 28 March on Monday, a spokesperson for the operator told Upstream. The terminals at Fos-Cavaou, Fos-Tonkin, and Montoir-de-Bretagne have a total import capacity of 16.8 million tonnes per annum. The workers, members of France's powerful CGT union are among thousands of workers staging industrial action against the French government's plan to lift the state pension age to 64. The Fkuxys-operated Dunkirk LNG terminal, with an import capacity of 12.4 million tpa, is the only available facility to offload LNG cargoes at present and send nominations to the gas grid after strike action ended on 16 March. “Fluxys is not currently aware of any new strike action being announced but is continuing to monitor the situation closely,” the spokesperson said. On Monday, the French government narrowly survived a vote of no-confidence called after President Emmanuel Macron invoked a special constitutional power to enact pension bill without a vote in parliament. The vote, tabled by centrist MPs, had 278 votes in favour, falling short of the 287 votes needed. Had it been successful, Macron would have had to name a new government or call new elections. The French government took steps to draft in staff on Tuesday to ensure the functioning of ExxonMobil’s Fos-sur-Mer refinery, Reuters reported. There have not yet been any moves to introduce similar steps at Elengy’s three LNG terminals.

Four Out Of Six French Refineries To Stop Operations As Strikes Escalate ... Four out of France’s six refineries will shut down by Monday, March 20, as strikes escalate after French President Emmanuel Macron pushed through with a controversial pension reform without a vote in Parliament, refinery workers toldArgus on Friday. Earlier this week, Macron pushed to pass the reform without a vote in Parliament under a parliamentary clause known as 49:3. The pension reform proposes to raise the retirement age in France by two years to 64.Macron’s move without a parliamentary vote sparked even more protests and street blockades in Paris and other cities in the country.The strikes in France against the reform began in February and escalated this month, with workers in many sectors, including refinery workers, joining the industrial action.The strikes have disrupted power supply, refining operations, and fuel deliveries for nearly two weeks. Now most of France’s refineries are expected be closed down by March 20, also because of a lack of crude deliveries due to strikes among port workers which prevent the discharging of crude cargoes.Two refineries run by supermajor TotalEnergies, the 219,000 bpd Donges and the 246,900 bpd Gonfreville refineries, as well as ExxonMobil’s 207,100 bpd Port Jerome facility and the 210,000 bpd Lavera refinery of Petroineos are all expected to be shut down by Monday, workers tell Argus. ExxonMobil’s refinery is stopping operations because it lacks the crude needed to keep the facility running. Apart from refining operations, the strikes have disrupted LNG imports into France as LNG import terminals have been shut down.France has four LNG receiving terminals, Dunkirk, Montoir, Fos Cavaou, and Fos Tonkin. As the strikes entered their second week, at least seven LNG cargoes heading to France have changed course and are now headed to import terminals in the Netherlands, the UK, and Spain since the strikes started.

Rising Chinese Crude Demand Sends Supertanker Rates Soaring Shipping rates for supertankers have recently shot up above $100,000 a day as the market for very large crude carriers (VLCC) tightens and Chinese oil demand rises. Chinese refiners are chartering more supertankers to bring crude later this year as the economy reopens. At the same time, the sanctions on Russia have tightened demand for all kinds of crude-carrying vessels as the voyage to Russia’s main customers now, China and India, is much longer than a week-long trip from a Russian Baltic port to northwest Europe. In the tighter tanker market, day rates are rising and are expected to stay elevated for at least another two years, according to analysts and shipowners. Chinese demand is set to drive global oil consumption this year, and Chinese refiners are booking tankers to carry crude on long-haul trips from the United States, further tightening the VLCC market and pushing rates higher. As U.S. oil prices are at a discount to the Middle Eastern benchmark, more U.S. crude is set to arrive in China at the end of the second quarter of this year, banks, brokers, and shipowners say. “Tankers are traveling longer distances and ship availability is very tight. I think rates will stay strong for the next two years,” Lars Barstad, chief executive at Frontline, which owns and operates 22 supertankers and nearly 50 smaller vessels Suezmax and Aframax, told The Wall Street Journal. Tanker rates are also pushed higher by the lower availability of vessels as more ships are involved in the Russian oil trade and – due to the sanctions – have become unavailable to other shippers. The number of newly built tankers and orders for new builds is at a decades-low, further constraining vessel availability. “Despite improving fundamentals and strong tanker markets in the second half of 2022, new ordering of tanker tonnage in dwt terms was the lowest reported in 27 years. There is a marginal number of available berths being discussed for late 2025 delivery, predominantly in China, but to compensate for the growing numbers of vessels reaching 20 years of age over the next years, one needs to look to 2026,” Frontline said last month in its 2022 results report and outlook for the coming years. “This continues to be the fundamental reason one may remain positive for tankers for the years to come.” Teekay Tankers, which is not participating in the movement of Russian cargoes, said last month that “the transfer of ships into the so-called shadow fleet effectively removes them from mainstream trades and reduces effective vessel supply.” Teekay Tankers expects the global tanker fleet to grow by around 1.5% this year, with virtually no growth in 2024, the company’s CEO Kevin Mackay said.

Russia Overtakes Saudi Arabia To Become China's Top Oil Supplier --Russia was the single largest crude oil supplier to China in January and February, overtaking Saudi Arabia which was the number-one supplier of oil to China last year, according to Chinese customs data cited by Reuters. As China accelerated the buying of cheap Russian crude oil at discounts to international benchmarks, Chinese imports of crude from Russia jumped by 23.8% year over year to 1.94 million barrels per day (bpd) in January and February 2023, per the data reported by China’s General Administration of Customs. China reports trade and economic data for January and February together to remove distortions around the fluctuating week-long Lunar New Year holiday.In the first two months of this year, Russia beat Saudi Arabia to the top spot of Chinese crude oil suppliers as imports of Saudi crude fell by 4.7% to the equivalent of 1.72 million bpd, compared to 1.81 million bpd for the same period of 2022. For the full-year 2022, Saudi Arabia was China’s top crude oil supplier – ahead of Russia – with shipments averaging 1.75 million bpd.In recent months, China has been buying increased volumes of Russian crude as Moscow pivoted its sales to Asian markets following the Western embargoes and price caps on its crude oil and refined petroleum products.The independent refiners in China, often referred to as the teapots, are importing a large portion of the Russian volumes, taking advantage of the deep discounts at which Russia sells its oil to customers. Despite a sluggish start to 2023, China’s energy commodity imports are expected to rise later this year, while oil demand is set to rebound and lead global oil consumption to a record high, forecasters say.China’s reopening is set to add momentum to global economic growth, OPEC said in its Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR) this week, as it revised up its forecast for Chinese oil demand growth. The International Energy Agency (IEA) said in its report last week that “Building stocks today will ease tensions as the market swings into deficit during the second half of the year when China is expected to drive world oil demand to record levels.”

How China benefits from Western sanctions on Russia's energy exports (Reuters) - Chinese President Xi Jinping arrived in Russia on Monday in his first overseas trip since securing a third term as president. The visit comes just over a year after Russia launched what it calls a "special military operation" in Ukraine, triggering sanctions by the European Union on purchases of Russian seaborne crude and coal, and a price cap agreed by the Group of Seven on Russian crude oil in December. The EU also halted piped gas imports from Russia, distorting the global LNG market. China, the world's top energy consumer, has not agreed to any of the moves. With Moscow under pressure to sell surplus volumes no longer going to the EU, China has saved billions of dollars on purchases of cheaper Russian oil and coal and made returns trading excess supplies. Xi has said China wants a closer energy partnership with Russia that would maintain international energy security and supply chains. Below are details on how much China has gained so far. China's crude imports from Russia jumped 8% in 2022 from a year earlier to 86.25 million tonnes (1.7 million barrels per day), according to Chinese customs data, even as the country's overall imports slipped 0.9% last year due to a slowdown in its economy. That gave Russia a 17% share of the Chinese oil market, up from 15% the year before, though it remained a close second to top supplier Saudi Arabia, which supplied 87.5 million tonnes. It also brought large savings. Based on an estimated $10 a barrel discount for both ESPO and Urals crude on delivered basis, Chinese refiners saved about $5.5 billion over the April 2022 to January 2023 period, according to Reuters' calculations. Independent refiners in the eastern province of Shandong were the biggest beneficiaries. State refiners also gained from the cheaper oil, while others made profits from trading the barrels, traders said. China's seaborne crude imports from Russia are set to hit an all-time high of about 1.4 million bpd in March, according to Vortexa and Kpler. China has also increased coal imports from Russia even as it cut back overall imports of the fuel because of more domestic production. Russian coal arrivals surged 20% in 2022 from a year earlier to 68.06 million tonnes, with coking coal imports doubling to reach 21 million tonnes, showed customs data, as China bought discounted coal while Europe shunned Russian cargoes and later banned them on Aug. 11. Without bottlenecks in Russian rail capacity that are hampering transport of coal eastwards, imports could have been even higher.

Offshore oil is about to surge - Oil executives love to talk about the energy transition. But for all the platitudes about technologies such as hydrogen and carbon capture, most are doubling down on what they know best. Oil. Spending on new offshore oil projects over the next two years is projected to soar to levels not seen in a decade. In Saudi Arabia, the state-owned oil giant is embarking on a series of massive offshore expansion projects designed to boost the kingdom’s crude production. The United Kingdom and Norway are pumping more money into the North Sea in hopes of lifting out more oil. Exxon Mobil Corp., America’s oil giant, is plowing money into projects in waters off Guyana and Brazil. The offshore revival represents a shift after a decade of focus on onshore shale plays and amounts to a vote of confidence in oil’s long-term future. The move is notable as it follows several years of mounting talk of diversifying oil companies’ business models. Europe’s oil giants have announced net-zero emission targets and have begun investing in everything from renewables to electric vehicle charging. Even America’s oil titans, which have long maintained that crude will be needed for decades to come, have begun pouring money in areas such as hydrogen and carbon capture. Yet oil remains their bread and butter. “People who hoped the oil companies would stop investing in oil are likely to be disappointed,” said Kevin Book, managing director at ClearView Energy Partners. In some ways, the offshore renaissance is a sign of the emerging energy transition. The world is still likely to consume large amounts of oil for decades to come, even if energy transition efforts gain steam and global crude demand begins to decline. That means investment in new or expanded fields is needed to offset declining production from existing wells. The result is something of a race, with oil companies seeking to identify fields that can produce at low oil prices and outlast competitors in a shrinking market. “Whatever transition brings to the oil industry, there is going to be a place for cleaner, cheaper barrels,” Book said. Rystad Energy, a consulting firm, reckons that offshore spending will eclipse $100 billion in 2023 and 2024. That would mark the first time offshore oil investment eclipses the $100 billion mark in consecutive years since 2012 and 2013, the firm said. Offshore spending will account for 68 percent of spending on newly sanctioned projects over the next two years, compared with 40 percent from 2015 and 2018.

Oil spill has reached Verde Island, Batangas, PCG says --The oil spill from a submerged motor tanker in Oriental Mindoro has now creeped into the waters of Verde Island in Batangas, the Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) said on Monday. PCG-Batangas station commander Captain Victorino Acosta confirmed this in an interview on Super Radyo dzBB, when asked if the oil spill from MT Princess Empress which sank on February 28 is already visible on Verde Island. “Opo. Sa ngayon, confirmed [Yes. Right now, it’s confirmed],” he said. “Doon sa bandang 4.4 nautical miles, nagko-combat na kaagad tayo. Oil sheens pa lang doon pero may mga nagla-landfall na dito. Kapag nakita mo, nagiging kulay itim na,” he added. (We are already combating it at around 4.4 nautical miles. There are oil sheens, but some are making a landfall which are black in color.) Acosta said the PCG is still assessing the length of the oil spill on Verde Isand’s shoreline. They are also monitoring the situation in other coastal areas of Batangas, such as San Juan, Tingloy, Lobo, and Calatagan. Acosta, however, assured that the province has already been preparing for such and has put in place improvised oil spill booms and other equipment. There is also no announcement yet of a fishing ban in Batangas and ro-ro travel is not affected, according to him. University of the Philippines Marine Science Institute (UP-MSI) associate professor Dr. Irene Rodriguez said on Sunday that the oil spill may reach Batangas and Puerto Galera as the Northeast Monsoon or Amihan has slowed down and is going towards the north along the Verde Island passage. MT Princess Empress sank on February 28 off Naujan while carrying 900,000 liters of industrial fuel.

Marina sets release of P33 million for oil spill cleanup - — The Maritime Industry Authority (Marina) plans to release P33 million from its oil pollution management fund (OPMF) this week to finance the oil spill cleanup in Oriental Mindoro after an oil tanker capsized in the area. Sharon Aledo, legal services director of Marina, told reporters on Monday they were just awaiting the signatures of the OPMF committee members for the disbursement. The fund was requested by the Philippine Coast Guard (PCG), which is leading the cleanup, via a letter request to Marina on March 10. The money will be spent on equipment and other supplies, such as personal protective equipment, needed for the operation, Aledo shared. As of end-February, the OPMF stood at P70 million, Aledo said. The OPMF is a revolving fund established by the Oil Pollution Compensation Act of 2007. The fund is comprised of “contributions of owners and operators of tankers and barges hauling oil and for petroleum products in Philippine waterways and coastwise shipping routes.” The MT Princess Empress was carrying 800,000 liters of industrial oil when it sank off the coast of Naujan, Oriental Mindoro, on Feb. 28. The PCG recently reported that it had recovered 6,804 liters of oily water mixture and 65 sacks of oil-contaminated materials during its offshore operations from March 1 to March 17.

Philippines finds sunken fuel tanker three weeks after spill (Reuters): A leaking fuel tanker that sank off the central Philippines three weeks ago has been found using an underwater robot from Japan, a provincial governor said on Tuesday, as authorities sought more foreign help to address the oil spill. The discovery of MT Princess Empress, which was carrying about 800,000 litres (211,338 gallons) of industrial fuel oil when it capsized on Feb. 28 and eventually sank, was deemed crucial in stopping the spill, which reached shorelines in three provinces. Plugging the leaks and extracting any remaining oil from the tanker was urgent, Oriental Mindoro Governor Humerlito Dolor said in a media briefing. With the help of a remotely-operated vehicle that arrived on Monday from Japan, Dolor shared the first photos of the Philippine-flagged vessel from its exact location. The robot will also help determine the tanker's condition, he said. About 36,000 hectares (88,958 acres) of coral reef, mangroves and sea-grass could be affected by the oil slick, according to Filipino marine scientists. Japan has also sent a team of coast guard personnel to help in the cleanup, according to the Philippines' disaster agency, while five US coast guard personnel have arrived to help with the spill response, the US embassy said. The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration will work closely with the Philippines to conduct rapid environmental assessments of affected areas and assess needs for ecosystem restoration, the embassy said.

Coast Guard collects 7,000 liters of oily water mixture from spill-affected areas The Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) collected some 7,000 liters of oily water mixture as part of operations to address the oil spill in Oriental Mindoro. The PCG also collected nearly 2,000 sacks of oil-contaminated materials and 22 drums of oil debris and trash from 13 barangays, as reported on GMA News Live on Sunday evening. The collected oily mixture and debris is part of the oil spill clean-up effort from the sinking of the MT Prince Empress, which was carrying 900,000 liters of industrial fuel oil when it sank in heavy seas on February 28. The PCG earlier said the motor tanker sank 400 meters into the ocean, which was too deep for divers to reach. The Bureau of Fishers and Aquatic Resources (BFAR) last week said the oil spill could cause a lower fish output, but not to the extent of a nationwide shortage.

BFAR: P5 million lost daily due to Mindoro oil spill fishing ban The country is losing P5 million per day as fisherfolk continue to suffer from the fishing ban imposed in several areas affected by the oil spill from the sunken motor tanker off Oriental Mindoro, the Bureau of Fisheries and Aquatic Resources (BFAR) said Monday. BFAR chief information officer Nazario Briguera said that 19,000 fishermen in nine municipalities in Oriental Mindoro were affected by the oil slick from the sunken MT Princess Empress, which was carrying 900,000 liters of industrial fuel. “With the 19,000 affected fisherfolk…tinitignan po namin na estimate is P5 million ang nawawala araw-araw dahil sa hindi pagkakaron ng hanap-buhay ng mga mangingisda habang nakasara ang pangisdaan kung saan sila naghahanap-buhay,” he said in a public briefing. (With the 19,000 affected fisherfolk, we estimate that P5 million is lost every day as fishermen lose their livelihood due to the fishing ban.) Fishing in oil spill affected areas in Oriental Mindoro was prohibited due to possible water toxification.

Japanese ROV to be used at Mindoro oil spill arrives in the Philippines The remotely operated vehicle (ROV) to be used to check the condition and contain the oil leak from the sunken MT Princess Empress arrived in the Philippines from Japan on Monday. According to Cedric Castillo’s report on “24 Oras", the ROV contracted by RDC Rield Marine Services — the operating company of the sunken motor tanker off Najuan, Oriental Mindoro— was in Batangas province. It was set to check on the condition of the motor tanker but still needs to undergo customs and documentary processes before it would be allowed to be deployed. “Wala sa usapan ‘yung i-aangat ang barko. Ang parang pinag-uusapan doon initially kung may butas, i-patch muna at i-siphon yung langis. Kaya dapat sa lalong madaling panahon, lahat ng paraan magawa,” Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) Spokesperson Rear Admiral Armand Balilo said. (We never discussed raising the ship. We only talked about patching the hole and siphoning the oil. We need to take all actions as soon as possible.) MT Princess Empress sank on February 28 while carrying 900,000 liters of industrial fuel. The latest report from the PCG said the oil reached Verde Island in Batangas City, which is considered to be the world’s center of biodiversity. Earlier in the day, the US Coast Guard personnel sent to augment the manpower for the oil leak containment effort also arrived in the country. They are expected to deploy their own ROV units. The Philippines is also reaching out to South Korea for the deployment of their coast guard personnel to Oriental Mindoro, the report said. Meanwhile, the Maritime Industry Authority (MARINA) disowned the certificate of public convenience (CPC) presented by the ship owner, calling it “inauthentic”. "It’s inauthentic, so to speak. We never issued an amended CPC and at the same time, I never signed one."

U.S. Experts Arrive in Oriental Mindoro to Assist in Oil Spill Response > U.S. Indo-Pacific Command > 2015 – At the request of the Philippine government, eight experts from the United States government arrived in Pola, Oriental Mindoro today to support the oil spill response operations of the Philippine Coast Guard (PCG). Five members from the U.S. Coast Guard’s (USCG) National Strike Force will provide subject matter expertise and assess the affected areas to determine the most effective method and equipment to contain and clean up the oil spill from the sunken tanker MT Princess Empress. A U.S. expert team composed of personnel from the USCG and NOAA are providing technical support to assess the damage caused by the oil spill off the coast of Oriental Mindoro. Through funding from the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID), two members of the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) will work closely with the Philippines Department of Environment and Natural Resources to conduct rapid environmental assessments of affected areas, identify priority areas at risk of environmental damage, and assess needs for ecosystem restoration. NOAA has already provided the PCG with satellite imagery to boost assessment efforts. It also provided the University of the Philippines-Marine Sciences Institute with support for scientific modeling to estimate the trajectory of the spill. Lastly, a member of U.S. Navy Supervisor of Salvage and Diving will evaluate the technical parameters required to support the possible deployment of a remotely operated vehicle. Prior to their deployment to Pola, the American experts received a briefing on March 20 in Manila from the PCG and the Japan Disaster Relief Expert Team about oil-spill mitigation actions taken so far. “When vessels are in deep water, as in this case, cleaning up the remaining oil becomes a complicated issue. Through our incident management professionals’ wealth of experience and strong expertise in oil spill response, we will assist the PCG in developing safe and efficient methods to contain and recover the oil and minimize damage to the environment,” said Commander Stacey Crecy, commanding officer of the USCG Pacific Strike Team.

Oil spill fear after fatal accident on Chevron FSO offshore Thailand = Government agencies are on alert for a potential oil spill from the floating storage and offloading (FSO) vessel deployed on US supermajor Chevron’s Benchamas field offshore Thailand following an onboard accident that left one worker dead. One crew member was killed after seawater entered the hull of the Benchamas 2 FSO when a seal malfunctioned during maintenance work. Chevron confirmed that a contractor working aboard the vessel had died. There were 29 crew members onboard the FSO at the time of the incident and non-essential workers have since been demobilised. “The safety of all personnel and the protection of the environment remain our top priorities. We have engaged and notified the relevant authorities and are working with all stakeholders,” Chevron reportedly said in a statement. Upstream has approached Chevron for independent verification and comment. The kingdom’s government has tasked the Royal Thai Navy and Department of Transport to help prevent a possible significant oil spill from the FSO, which is deployed on the Benchamas field in the Gulf of Thailand. Royal Thai Navy spokesman Admiral Prokgrong Monthatphalin said that multiple agencies were working to recover the body of the dead crewman, fix the leak and avert an oil spill. “The vessel’s condition is safe and weather conditions are not interfering with the rescue operations. However, there is no electricity in the engine room… it is affecting assessment of the situation,” Prokgrong was quoted in a statement by the Bangkok Post. The FSO, which for more than four years has been operating on Chevron’s Benchamas field on Block B8/32 in the Gulf of Thailand about 130 miles offshore Chon Buri province — home of Thailand’s largest naval base — had some 400,000 barrels of oil on board at the time of the incident.

Australia's largest undeveloped gas field to be reinstated in the LNG race - Development of the Browse gas fields offshore Western Australia is back in focus again as the Woodside-led project owners prepare for the front-end engineering and design phase, buoyed by strong demand forecasts in the global liquefied natural gas market. Browse is the largest undeveloped gas and condensate resource in Australia with a contingent resource of 14 trillion cubic feet of gas and nearly 390 million barrels of condensate. Development momentum is bouncing back after the project was suspended in early 2020 as the Covid outbreak began.

Traditional Owners suspected they wouldn't benefit from fracking. A secret govt report has confirmed it Samuel Janama Sandy has long taken issue with mining. Not only does the Djingili Elder and Native Title holder lament the impact the industry has on his traditional lands; he also questions the supposed benefits to Indigenous communities that fossil fuel companies often use to promote their projects. "The NT government, the gas companies and the Northern Land Council get the big share and our communities are left without jobs or support to grow stronger," he said. "We are getting a peanut, while the white man is packing up his pocket with cash. We should own land, buy businesses, but we got nothing." With the release of a hidden government report, his suspicions have proven correct. Written by the National Indigenous Australians Agency (NIAA), the report revealed the scarce economic benefit of fracking for Beetaloo Basin Traditional Owners. Never released by the Morrison government, the report was obtained by the Nurrdalinji Aboriginal Corporation under Freedom of Information laws and released publicly on Tuesday. The findings of the report contradict claims by the gas industry that jobs and economic benefits from fracking will flow to communities. Mr Sandy, who is Deputy Chairman of Nurrdalinji Aboriginal Corporation, Samuel Janama Sandy, lives in a housing commission flat in Katherine and doesn't have access to a car. The report's findings aren't news to him, having no personal evidence of the benefits "they say will come from fracking". He says community want sustainable jobs that will preserve their lands for future generations. "Our people want jobs on Country, but not jobs that involve drilling into our Country," he said. “We don’t want fracking, at any cost. The gas should be kept in the ground. "Everything will be changed if they start production pretty soon like they say. We won’t be able to go out on Country with our children and grandchildren. It will all be damaged."

Kuwait Oil Company declares ‘state of emergency’ after oil spill - The Kuwait Oil Company declared a “state of emergency” on Monday following an oil spill on land, but said no injuries or disruption to production had been reported. The emergency followed an “oil leak in the west of the country”, the state-owned company said in a statement, as video posted by Kuwaiti media showed a gushing pipe surrounded by a large slick of oil. “No injuries have occurred as a result of the leak and production has not been affected,” company spokesman Qusai al-Amer was quoted as saying, adding that no toxic fumes have been reported. The leak “occurred on land but not in a residential area”, he later told AFP. Teams have been dispatched to determine the source of the leak and contain the incident, Al-Amer said, declining to give the spill’s exact location.

Kuwait oil firm declares ‘state of emergency’ after leak - The Kuwait Oil Company declared a “state of emergency” on Monday following an oil spill on land, in an incident decried by environmental activists as a “recurring problem” in the energy-rich Gulf state. The emergency followed an “oil leak in the west of the country”, the state-owned company said in a statement, as video posted by Kuwaiti media showed a gushing pipe surrounded by a large slick of oil. “No injuries have occurred as a result of the leak and production has not been affected,” company spokesman Qusai Al-Amer was quoted as saying, adding that no toxic fumes had been reported. The leak “occurred on land but not in a residential area”, he later told AFP. Teams have been dispatched to determine the source of the leak and contain the incident, Al-Amer said, declining to give the spill’s exact location. Kuwait’s Al Rai newspaper released a video on Twitter showing a pipe spewing large amounts of oil onto barren land. AFP could not independently verify the footage. Kuwait is a major oil-producing country where nearly 90 per cent of government revenue comes from oil. A key member of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (Opec), the nation is currently producing about 2.7 million barrels per day. Kuwaiti environmental activist Khalid Al-Hajire said the extent of damage from Monday’s oil leak was largely unclear, but decried non-compliance with environmental protocol. “The oil pollution we constantly see in the air, land and sea proves that the oil industry is not sufficiently serious when it comes to protecting the environment,” said Al-Hajire, the chairman of the Green Line Environmental Group, a non-governmental organisation.

Oil Prices Head Lower As Credit Suisse Shares Plunge By 60% - The selloff in oil continues on Monday, with Brent falling to the $72 a barrel mark and U.S. crude down to the $65 per barrel handle, as traders are cutting long positions amid the banking sector turmoil of the past week.The market rout saw Credit Suisse’s stock plummet by 60% on Monday in Europe after the announced takeover by UBS.As of 8:26 a.m. ET on Monday, the U.S. oil benchmark WTI Crude was down by 1.15% at $65.95, and Brent Crude, the international benchmark, was falling by 1.08% at $72.09.During the weekend, UBS said it plans to buy troubled Credit Suisse for $3 billion in an attempt to stop the contagion of spreading to the global banking system.“The combination is expected to create a business with more than USD 5 trillion in total invested assets and sustainable value opportunities,” UBS said on Sunday.On Monday, shares in UBS were down by 5% in Europe, while Credit Suisse’s stockcollapsed by 60%.Amid the market turmoil, investors and speculators are fleeing riskier assets such as crude oil futures.European stocks in general rebounded on Monday, although bank stocks hit the lowest level in three months. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures wavered on Monday ahead of the U.S. markets opening as traders try to assess the risks of more contagion to the banking system.The markets are also on edge about the Fed’s next meeting, which is on Tuesday and Wednesday, and analysts expect the high volatility in all markets – including the oil market – to continue, at least this week.Brent Crude trades lower, below $75 per barrel, with short sellers in control, Ole Hansen, Head of Commodity Strategy at Saxo Bank, said on Monday.“This is no longer a supply/demand focused market and additional risk off could see it target $65,” Hansen added.

Oil rebounds after Brent oil prices slipped under $72 per barrel amid banking turmoil -- Oil prices rebounded and rose over 1% on Monday after diving to their lowest levels in 15 months amid turmoil in the banking sector.The Brent contract with May delivery last rose 73 cents, or 1%%, to $73.70 a barrel, after earlier hitting $71.64 per barrel at 11:00 London time.The front-month April WTI Nymex gained 73 cents, or 1.09%, to $67.47 a barrel.Oil prices have come under pressure from a crisis in the Western banking sector, which has seen the downfall of tech startup-focused Silicon Valley Bank and the takeover of embattled Credit Suisse by Swiss rival UBS in the span of two weeks. Two sources within the influential OPEC+ alliance signaled to CNBC at the end of last week that banking uncertainty was feeding into fears of another financial collapse to the tune of the 2008 crisis.OPEC+ delegates could only comment on condition of anonymity, as they are not allowed to publicly discuss the topic.One of the sources noted that the drop was likely temporary and not underpinned by supply-demand fundamentals surrounding the physical commodity, but stressed the need to monitor the potential effect on central bank interest rate decisions and inflation. The European Central Bank pressed ahead with a further rate hike of 50 basis points on March 16, while the U.S. Federal Reserve is due to reach its own rate decision this week.Over the past year, OPEC+ has championed stability in the oil price landscape to encourage long-term investment in spare capacity and avoid supply shortages. An OPEC+ ministerial technical committee is next set to adjourn on April 3.In a note dated March 15, UBS analysts indicated that the wider financial market turbulence was unlikely to affect crude oil production rates, but flagged that "during periods of elevated volatility, investors tend to pull out of risky assets like oil and invest in safer corners of the market."It added that the options market is now intensifying the decline in oil prices through delta-hedging plays. Citing "banking stress, recession fears, and an exodus of investor flows," analysts at Goldman Sachs on March 18 cut their oil price outlook, now expecting Brent prices to hit $94 per barrel in the upcoming 12 months and $97 per barrel over the second half of 2024 — compared with previous projections at $100 per barrel for both periods."Our adjustment also reflects somewhat softer fundamentals, namely higher-than-expected near-term inventories, moderately lower demand, and modestly higher non-OPEC supply," Goldman Sachs said.Questions linger over the potential demand boost from a reopening China — the world's largest importer of crude oil, whose buying was reined in for much of last year by Covid-19 restrictions.Paris-based watchdog the International Energy Agency nevertheless said in the March issue of its monthly Oil Market Report that it expects world oil demand growth to "accelerate sharply over the course of 2023," seeing "rebounding air traffic and the release of pent-up Chinese demand dominate the recovery."The supply picture has stayed muddied by Russia, whose oil flows have been choked by Western sanctions implemented against its seaborne crude and oil products in December and February, respectively. Moscow announced a unilateral 500,000 barrels per day cut in its crude output in March, announced by Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak on Feb. 10. It remains to be seen whether Russia's declines will be long term or are the product of technical difficulties to sustain field production rates following the winter cold, one OPEC+ delegate told CNBC last week. According to the state Saudi Press Agency, Saudi energy minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman received Novak in Riyadh on March 16, with both countries reaffirming their commitment to the OPEC+ policy of removing a combined 2 million barrels per day of production from the markets until the end of 2023, agreed in October.

The oil market on Monday saw a late day rally and ended higher - The oil market on Monday saw a late day rally and ended higher, recouping some of last week’s sharp losses. Early in the session, the market continued on its downward trend on concerns of risks in the global banking sector. The market traded lower to a low of $64.12 as a deal in which UBS, Switzerland’s largest bank, agreed to buy Credit Suisse in an attempt to rescue the country’s second biggest bank, failed to ease banking concerns. Also, the U.S. Federal Reserve, European Central Bank and other major central banks pledged to enhance market liquidity and support other banks. The oil market later retraced some of its earlier losses and remained in negative territory for most of the session before a day rally pushed the market to a high of $67.70 ahead of the close. The market rebounded as the stock market posted gains amid the possibility that the Federal Reserve will pause rate hikes at its meeting on Wednesday. The April WTI contract settled up 90 cents at $67.64, while the May Brent contract settled up 82 cents at $73.79. The product markets ended the session in positive territory, with the heating oil market settling up 94 points at $2.6871 and the RB market settling up 3.45 cents at $2.5360.IIR Energy reported that U.S. oil refiners are expected to shut in about 1,172,000 bpd of capacity in the week ending March 24th, increasing available refining capacity by 285,000 bpd. Offline capacity is expected to fall to 1,021,000 bpd in the week ending March 31st.Goldman Sachs Equity Research’s Natasha Tiwana said oil prices should take some time to recover after falling on concerns over the banking sector and fears of a recession. Goldman Sachs forecasts Brent at $94/barrel for the 12 months ahead and at $97/barrel in the second half of 2024 compared with previous expectations of $100/barrel, also on the back of higher than expected inventories and lower demand.The head of the Petroleum Association of Japan, Shunichi Kito, said oil prices could stay under selling pressure for the time being amid risk-off sentiment among investors in light of banking sector turmoil. However, he stated that the losses will likely be capped due to an expected shortfall in global supply in the latter half of this year.On Monday, Kuwait Oil Co. declared a state of emergency due to an oil leak in the west of the country. The company said production was not affected because of the oil leak and there were no injuries reported. Libya’s Oil Minister, Mohamed Oun, said that approval of the No Oil Producing and Exporting Cartels Act by the U.S. Congress will lead to instability in the international oil market. He said “OPEC+ is trying to achieve the stability of the market via determining the supply quantities not the prices.” Independent energy trading company Vitol said Monday it still looks for the reopening of the Chinese economy and growth in the aviation sector to drive global oil demand higher by 2 million b/d this year. But the company cautioned the global energy markets remain vulnerable to both economic and geopolitical risks. The CEO of the company expects global oil demand will continue to grow annually until around 2030 despite the continued market penetration of electric cars and alternative fuels.

ICE Brent Tops $75 after Russia Extends Crude Output Cut -- West Texas Intermediate futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange and Brent crude traded on the Intercontinental Exchange advanced more than 1.5% on Tuesday after Russia announced it would extend a unilateral 500,000 bpd production cut, first announced in February, through the end of June, potentially signaling a sustained production drop due to Western sanctions on its crude and oil products. Although analysts are skeptical whether Russia indeed reduced oil production last month, it cannot be ruled out that EU import bans and a G7 price cap have taken a bite out of the country's crude output. Moscow first announced a 500,000-bpd production cut on Feb. 10 after Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak warned there was a real risk the country would have to lower oil production this year due to the EU import bans and G7 price cap on its oil products. At the time, Novak said the cut would only last until the end of March. Today, Novak added that, "In accordance with the current market situation, the decision to voluntarily reduce production by the amount of 500,000 bpd will be valid until June 2023 inclusive." WTI and Brent prices have lost more than $10 bbl over the past week, spurred in part by fears that the collapse of two midsized U.S. banks would spread to other banks and trigger a financial crisis. But the sentiment recovered somewhat as those concerns eased after the rescue of Credit Suisse AG, which was sold to its long-time rival UBS Group for around $3.25 billion and shares of U.S. regional banks stabilized. Tuesday's higher settlements also come ahead of the release of the highly anticipated rate decision from the Federal Open Market Committee that concludes its two-day policy meeting on Wednesday. As of this morning, 83.4% of investors expect the Federal Reserve to lift interest rates by 25 basis points to just above 4.75% at the conclusion of Wednesday's meeting, according to CME's Fed Watch Tool. That compares to just 16.6% of investors who believe the central bank will pause rate increases. At settlement, West Texas Intermediate for April delivery advanced $1.69 bbl to expire at $69.33 bbl, and WTI for May delivery settled at $69.67 bbl. The international crude benchmark Brent contract for May delivery gained $1.53 to $75.32 bbl. NYMEX RBOB April futures settled at $2.5389 gallon and the front-month ULSD contract firmed $0.0031 to $2.6902 gallon.

Oil rises 2% in retreat from 15-months low as banking fears subside - Oil prices rose more than two per cent on Tuesday, extending a retreat from a 15-month low hit the previous day, as the rescue of Credit Suisse allayed concerns of a banking crisis that would hurt economic growth and cut fuel demand. Measures to stabilise the banking sector, including a UBS takeover of Credit Suisse and pledges from major central banks to boost liquidity, have calmed fears about the financial system that roiled markets last week. Brent crude settled up $1.53, or 2.1 per cent, at $75.32 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) closed up $1.69, or 2.5 per cent to $69.33. On Monday, both benchmarks ended about one per cent higher after falling to their lowest since December 2021, with WTI sinking below $65 at one point. Last week, they shed more than 10 per cent as the banking crisis deepened. "A 'risk back on' sentiment seems to be coming back to crude, as the latest selloff may very well have been exaggerated liquidation," The US Federal Reserve started its monetary policy meeting on Tuesday. Markets expect a rate hike of 25 basis points, down from previous expectations of a 50 bps increase. Some top central bank watchers have said the Fed could pause further rate hikes or delay releasing new economic projections. Wall Street indexes also closed sharply higher on Tuesday as fears over liquidity in the banking sector abated and market participants eyed the Fed. Meanwhile, US crude oil inventories rose by about 3.3 million barrels last week, according to market sources citing American Petroleum Institute figures. That compared with Reuters estimates for a draw of 1.6 million barrels. A meeting of ministers from OPEC+, which includes members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries plus Russia and other allies, is scheduled for April 3. OPEC+ sources told Reuters the drop in prices reflects banking fears rather than supply and demand. Hedge fund manager Pierre Andurand agreed the latest price drop was speculative and not based on fundamentals. He predicted oil will hit $140 a barrel by year-end. The CEO of energy trader Gunvor, Torbjorn Tornqvist, said he expected oil prices to move higher toward year end as rising Chinese demand tightens the market further. Money managers cut their net long US crude futures and options positions in the week to March 14, the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) said.

Crude Oil Inventories Build Again, But Products Draw - Crude oil inventories in the United States rose this week, with a 3.262 million barrel build, the American Petroleum Institute (API) data showed on Tuesday, compared to estimates of a 1.448 million barrel draw. The total number of barrels of crude oil gained so far this year is now more than 59 million barrels. This week, SPR inventory held steady for the tenth week in a row at 371.6 million barrels—the lowest amount of crude oil in the SPR since December 1983. U.S. crude oil production stayed at 12.2 million bpd for week ending March 10. U.S. production is now 900,000 bpd lower than the peak production seen in March 2020, but 600,000 bpd higher than this time last year. Oil prices traded up on Tuesday in the run-up to the data release after sustaining significant losses in the days week prior due to the panic surrounding the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank. By 2:37 p.m. EST, WTI was trading up $1.83 (+2.63%) on the day to $69.48 per barrel, a loss of more than $2 per barrel on the week. Brent crude was trading up $1.58 (+2.14%) on the day at $75.37 $77.88—down roughly $2.50 per barrel from this same time last week. WTI was trading at $69.50 shortly after the data release. While crude oil saw a build, it was the only build this week for the second week in a row, with product inventories falling again. Gasoline inventories fell by 1.09 million barrels after last week’s data showed the fuel inventories fell by a sizeable 4.587 million barrels. Distillates fell by 1.84 million barrels after decreasing by 2.886 million bpd in the week prior. GasBuddy data showed that gasoline demand was up 7% this past Sunday and Monday compared to the relative four-week averages, and the highest levels since September 25, 2022. Inventories at Cushing, Oklahoma, decreased by 760,000 barrels—on top of the 946,000 barrel decline that the API reported last week.

WTI Rallies After Huge Product Drawdowns, Crude Stocks Near 2-Year HighOil prices are lower ahead of the official inventory and supply data, after spiking back above $70 (WTI) this morning, as investors wait anxiously to see whether Powell folds this afternoon. "The weakness seen overnight is mostly due to market jitters ahead of tonight's Fed rate decision with the market pricing in an 80% change of a 25-basis point hike," Saxo Bank noted. The near-term outlook remains clouded, however, due to to weak demand that’s driving a surplus in physical markets. Global demand headwinds are offsetting support from China’s reopening, OPEC’s quota reduction and US production struggles. In the short-term, an unexpected crude build (confirming API's print) could send prices even lower... API

Crude +3.262mm (-1.448mm exp)
Cushing -760k
Gasoline -1.09mm
Distillates -1.84mm

DOE

Crude +1.117mm (-1.448mm exp)
Cushing -1.063mm
Gasoline -6.399mm - biggest draw since Sept 2021
Distillates -3.313mm - biggest draw since Oct 2022

After API reported a surprise crude build, the official data confirmed the build (but a smaller one) but it was the sizable product draws that got the most attention... Graphs Source: Bloomberg With another massive 'adjustment factor' in the data... Soft diesel demand figures have done little to bolster confidence in the economy in the wake of the banking crisis. Seasonal consumption remained at the lowest level since 2016, with the gap widening from the five-year average. Total US crude stocks (ex SPR) rose to their highest since May 2021... US crude production rebounded modestly last week, despite a sliding US rig count... WTI was hovering at around $69.25 ahead of the official print and rallied back above $70 on the big draws...

Oil Futures Rally After Fed Lifts Rates, Product Draws Reported -- New York Mercantile Exchange oil futures nearest delivery rallied in afternoon trade Wednesday as the U.S. dollar declined sharply after Federal Open Market Committee raised the federal funds rate 25 basis points while at the same time acknowledging turmoil in the banking sector could slow the already fragile economy. The 25-basis point hike moves the federal funds rate to a 4.75% to 5% target range, which was widely expected. In a statement, the Fed's policymaking committee said it "will closely monitor incoming information and assess the implications for monetary policy." Additionally, the central bank removed the phrase "ongoing increases" from its statement, suggesting the central bank might be pivoting away from further rate increases. "Financial conditions seem to have tightened," Fed Chair Jerome Powell in his news conference following the rate decision. "We'll be looking to see how serious this is, and does it look like it's going to be sustained. And if it is, it could easily have a significant macroeconomic effect, and we would factor that into our policy decisions." The Fed's rate hike comes amid uncertainty over the health of the global banking sector. Earlier this month, Silicon Valley Bank collapsed, and Signature Bank was shut by the Treasury Department, while UBS acquired rival Credit Suisse -- a move forced by Swiss regulators to shore up the country's banking industry. Also on Wednesday, U.S. Energy Information Administration released an inventory report showing gasoline inventory declined for the fifth week through March 17, down 6.4 million bbl to a 229.6 million bbl 10-week low. The steep draw was well above the 1.09 million bbl decline reported late Tuesday by the American Petroleum Institute, with last week's draw realized as implied gasoline demand increased 366,000 bpd to 8.96 million bpd -- the second-highest weekly domestic consumption rate in 2023. Over the four-week period ended March 17, implied gasoline demand averaged 8.807 million bpd, near the comparable period in 2022 when the four-week consumption rate was 8.821 million bpd. So far in 2023, gasoline demand trails the year-ago pace by 114,000 bpd or 1.3% at 8.486 million bpd. Gasoline stocks have been drawn down 12.324 million bbl or 5.1% since Feb. 10 when they reached a 241.922 million bbl 11-month high, EIA data shows. The steep draw is realized following the heaviest refinery maintenance season in five years, with planned turnarounds taking about 1.5 million bpd of refining capacity offline at its peak in February. The U.S. refinery run rate continued to ramp higher in mid-March, climbing 0.4% to a 12-week high utilization rate at 88.6%, although down 2.5% against a year ago. Over the four weeks ended March 17, the refinery run rate averaged 87.2% compared with 89.6% during the corresponding four weeks in 2022. Distillate fuel inventory also widened a stock deficit against the five-year average last week following a 3.3 million bbl weekly draw that was more than an API-reported 1.84-million-bbl decline. The draw pressed distillate stocks to a 116.4 million bbl eight-week low, widening a deficit against the five-year average by 3.3 million bbl to just over 12 million bbl, although inventory is 4.3 million bbl above a year ago amid heavy drawdowns on sharp demand in early 2022. Commercial crude inventory in the United States increased 1.1 million bbl to a 22-month high at 481.18 million bbl, widening a surplus against the five-year average by 3.288 At settlement, NYMEX West Texas Intermediate futures rallied $1.23 to $70.90 bbl, and the international benchmark Brent gained to $76.69 bbl, up $1.37. NYMEX RBOB rallied $0.0543 to $2.5932 gallon and ULSD futures for April delivery advanced $0.0501 to $2.7403 gallon.

Oil up 3rd day in row on large fuel drawdown, dollar drop ahead of Fed -- Oil prices overcame a weak start to settle up for a third straight day on Wednesday, helped by the U.S. government’s report of a larger-than-expected drawdown from fuel stockpiles and the dollar’s continued tumble ahead of the Federal Reserve’s latest decision on interest rates. New York-traded West Texas Intermediate, or WTI, crude settled up $1.23, or 1.8%, at $70.90 per barrel. With the latest rise, the U.S. crude benchmark has gained more than 5% since the start of the week, returning to the key $70 perch and overwriting about half of last week’s near 10% plunge that accounted for oil’s worst week since the height of the coronavirus pandemic in April 2020. Just on Monday, WTI sank to $64.12, its lowest since December 2021. London-traded Brent crude finished up $1.37, or 1.8%, at $76.69 per barrel, adding to its about 3% gain over the past two sessions. The global crude benchmark plumbed a 15-month low of $70.12 on Monday, after finishing last week down 13% The Dollar Index fell to a more than one-week low of 102.627 against a basket of currencies, sliding for a ninth time in 10 sessions and losing 2.7% in the process. That naturally boosted demand for commodities denominated in the greenback, including crude. Oil’s rebound was also accelerated Wednesday by data showing larger-than-expected fuel demand for last week amid fair weather that appeared to encourage more driving. Gasoline inventories saw a drawdown of 6.399 million barrels during the week ended March 17, more than triple the drop of 2.061M barrels of gasoline noted in the prior week to March 10, the U.S. Energy Information Information, or EIA, said in its Weekly Petroleum Status Report. Automotive fuel gasoline is the No. 1 U.S. fuel product. Analysts tracked by Investing.com media had expected the EIA to report a gasoline stockpile drop of 1.677M barrels on the average for last week. With distillate stockpiles, the EIA reported a 3.313M barrel draw, against expectations for a drop of 1.5M and versus the prior week’s deficit of 2.537M. Distillates, which are refined into heating oil, diesel for trucks, buses, trains and ships and fuel for jets, are often the strongest demand component of the U.S. petroleum complex. The larger-than-expected drawdown in fuels came on the back of benign weather in the United States last week as the end of an unusually warm winter ushered in even higher spring temperatures that encouraged more Americans to drive. Despite the higher fuel consumption, crude oil balances in storage rose for a second week in a row, the EIA report showed, suggesting slower-than-expected refinery processing of crude. Refineries operated at 88.6% of their operable capacity last week, the EIA said, versus the 90% and above norm for this time of year. Crude stockpiles rose by 1.117M barrels during the week ended March 17. In the previous week to March 10, there was a build of 1.55M barrels. Except for one week, crude inventories have risen over the past 13 weeks, resulting in a net build of more than 60M barrels since the start of this year.

Oil prices slide after Fed hikes interest rates for the ninth time in a row - Oil prices are dipping again this morning, after the Federal Reserve hiked interest rates a further 25 basis points today. This follows three sessions of gains – with investors fears of contagion across the banking sector easing, after the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and the merger of UBS and Credit Suisse. Interest rates are now at 4.75-5.00 per cent, the highest level since 2007 – following a ninth rise in interest rates in a row. Fed Chair Jerome Powell has also warned that banking industry stress could trigger a credit crunch with “significant” implications for the world’s largest economy – which US central bank officials expect will slow even more this year than previously thought. This has seen oil prices – which settled at their highest levels since last week yesterday night – begin to tumble again. Brent Crude is down 0.42 per cent, trading ay $76.37 per barrel while WTI Crude is down 0.56 per cent at $70.50 per barrel Oil has benefitted from the US dollar dropping to a six-week low, alongside bullish expectations of demand recovery in China – the world’s top oil importer. This could support prices even through economic turbulence across the banking sector – with Goldman Sachs forecasting that oil demand topping 16m barrels per day. OPEC and IEA both expect demand to outstrip supply in the second half of 2023, with China driving a surge in oil consumption. Meanwhile, US crude oil stockpiles rose unexpectedly last week to their highest level in nearly two years – the latest data from the Energy Information Administration showed. Crude inventories rose in the week to March 17 by 1.1m barrels to 481.2m barrels, the highest since May 2021. Analysts in a poll from news agency Reuters expected a 1.6m barrel drop.

Goldman Sachs Expects Oil Prices To Climb Higher In June - Goldman Sachs expects higher oil prices 12 months from now, analysts from the investment bank said in a note, pointing out a forecast demand increase in China to more than 16 million barrels daily over the period.The bank is quite bullish on all commodities: earlier this week, its head of commodities, Jeffrey Currie, said that the outflow of capital from the energy industry will result in shortages that will manifest later this year."Historically, when you have this kind of scarring event, it takes months to get capital back ... We will still get a deficit by June and it will drive oil prices higher," Currie said at the Financial Times Commodities Global Summit, as quoted by Reuters.Currie is not the only bullish industry observer. Also this week, hedge fund manager Pierre Andurand said oil will rebound and rise to $140 per barrel by the end of the year, noting that the current slump was speculative and came from the banking sector.A lot of the bullishness around oil prices has to do with China. Chinese energy commodity imports were underwhelming in the first two months of 2023, but they are expected to pick up later this year with potentially record-high crude oil purchases, even though Beijing has set its lowest annual economic growth target in decades.Average oil imports over the first two months of the year were lower than last year’s but only modestly, by 1.3%. Oil imports during January and February tend to be weaker in China because of the Lunar New Year holidays, anyway.Yet pretty much every analyst expects Chinese demand for oil to grow in the coming months with a view to that growth rate of 5% set by the government. Besides, there is some new refining capacity coming online this year, which should guarantee stronger demand and lend a hand to prices.

Oil Extends Losses Amid Weak Eurozone Manufacturing Data -- New York Mercantile Exchange oil futures and Brent crude on the Intercontinental Exchange fell again in early morning trade Friday, pressuring the international benchmark below $75 barrel (bbl) in reaction to weaker-than-expected manufacturing data out of the European Union, showing business activity across the industrial sector eased to the lowest level in four months, driven by the loss of new orders and consumer demand. Manufacturing output in the Eurozone stagnated for the second straight month in March, with factory output falling into contraction territory to 49.9 from 50.1 in late February. The reading of 50 separates growth from contraction. Services sectors, on the other hand, powered higher to a 10-month high 55.6, lifting overall economic activity across the Eurozone. "Growth is very unbalanced, driven almost entirely by the service sector with manufacturing largely stalled and struggling to sustain production in the face of falling demand." said Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence Chris Williamson. Looking deeper into the data, manufacturing activity in Germany -- the bloc's largest economy -- eroded to the lowest level since May 2020 when the economy was largely shut by the COVID lockdown. Turning to prices, March's flash data for Germany and France showed the rate of inflation in goods and services still running well above its historical series average but eased further from the highs in 2022 to a near two-year low. This could be good news for the European Central Bank that has been trying to slow the rate of inflation across the euro area for over a year now. The ECB raised its key benchmark lending rate by another 50 basis points on March 16 in an attempt to backstop further price increases despite the turmoil in the banking sector. Domestically, the Federal Open Market Committee lifted the overnight bank borrowing rate by 0.25 percentage points this week to a 4.75% to 5% target range, matching market expectations, while signaling the central bank might raise rates one more time should inflation prove sticky. "We really don't see enough progress on core services inflation which excludes housing. The strength of recent readings indicates inflation pressures continue to run high," said Fed Chairman Jerome Powell in his news conference following the rate decision. Softer growth expectations are yet to be reflected in labor market conditions. Unemployment claims fell again last week to 191,000, remaining below the pre-pandemic average of 200,000 for every week this year except for three. This could be supportive for gasoline demand in the U.S. that typically tracks the labor market. So far in 2023, gasoline demand trails the year-ago pace by 114,000 bpd or 1.3% at 8.486 million bpd. Near 7:30 a.m. EDT, NYMEX West Texas Intermediate futures fell $2.73 to $67.19 bbl, and the international benchmark Brent contract declined to $73.08 bbl, down $2.88 bbl. NYMEX RBOB fell $0.0700 to $2.5432 gallon and ULSD futures for April delivery retreated $0.0356 to $2.6491 gallon.

Oil Prices Crash 4% As European Banking Stocks Slump Oil prices plunged by 4% early on Friday as the U.S. dollar rallied and banking stocks in Europe crashed in a sign of renewed pressure on the sector. As of 8:08 a.m. EDT on Friday, WTI Crude was down by 3.99% at $67.27, and Brent Crude traded down 3.65% on the day at $73.20.On Thursday, Brent settled at above $75 and WTI at over $70 per barrel. On Friday morning, oil prices had nearly wiped out the gains of this week accumulated on Wednesday and Thursday. On Friday, oil prices slumped again as the U.S. dollar was rallying, thus making crude more expensive for buyers holding other currencies.In addition, the banking sector in Europe was under intense selloff, with shares in Deutsche Bank and UBS crashing amid concerns about the cost of funding and contagion of the banking sector turmoil.Concerns about Deutsche Bank intensified on Friday and sent the Dow Jones stock futures down by over 300 points. “European banks are under pressure as funding costs soar,” said Peter Garnry, Head of Equity Strategy at Saxo Bank.Commodities led by crude oil saw renewed selling ahead of the weekend with European banks being under pressure, Saxo Bank’s Head of Commodity Strategy, Ole Hansen, commented.Oil, as a riskier asset, again came under pressure from the financial market turmoil due to concerns about the global banking sector.Adding to the bearish sentiment in oil, the United States signaled it is unlikely to fill the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) this year, which weighs on demand for crude.On Thursday, U.S. Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm said it would take years to replenish the nation’s Strategic Petroleum Reserve. When the Biden Administration sold off 221 million barrels of crude oil from the SPR last year, the idea was to buy oil to replace what was withdrawn. In October of last year, the Administration announced that it would repurchase crude oil for the reserve when prices were at or below about $67-$72 per barrel. The move would be dual purpose in that not only would it replenish the nation’s depleted reserves, but it would boost demand when prices were low instead of sending them into orbit at a time or regular prices.

Oil Falls Friday but Posts Weekly Gain | Rigzone - Oil rose this week as US government promises to protect bank depositors and a lack of surprises from the Federal Reserve calmed investors.Crude settled above $69 a barrel on Friday, recovering about a quarter of the nearly $10 it lost the previous week. The commodity remains volatile, and as long as banking concerns remain at the forefront of markets, crude fundamentals may have a limited effect on its price movements, analysts said.“Crude found support this week after several weeks of unabated pressure,” said Rebecca Babin, senior energy trader at CIBC Private Wealth. “Fear around a recession and skittish trading keep many investors in wait-and-see mode.”Investors also found bullish signals this week, with US exports of crude and refined products surging to a record 12 million barrels a day, suggesting a rosier demand outlook. Meanwhile, Russia extended its 500,000-barrel-a-day crude output cut through June. Still, crude paired its weekly gains on Friday as fresh signs of stress in the banking sector caused investors to move away from riskier assets ahead of the weekend. WTI for May delivery fell 70 cents to settle at $69.26 a barrel in New York. Brent for May settlement fell 92 cents to settle at $74.99 a barrel. Crude remains on course for its steepest first-quarter drop since 2020, when the pandemic wiped out demand. A potential US recession, robust Russian oil flows in the face of Western sanctions and strikes at refineries in France have all proved bearish forces.

Iran’s President Welcomes Invite From Saudi King After Normalization Deal -Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi has welcomed an invitation from Saudi King Salman to visit Riyadh following a China-brokered normalization deal between the two countries.Mohammad Jamshidi, the Iranian president’s deputy chief of staff for political affairs, wrote on Twitter that Salman wrote a letter to Raisi welcoming the normalization agreement and “invited him to make an official visit to Riyadh and called for the strengthening economic and regional cooperation.”“The president welcomed this invitation and emphasized Iran’s readiness to enhance cooperation,” he said.Iran and Saudi Arabia agreed to reopen embassies and establish full diplomatic relations for the first time since 2016 within two months of signing the agreement. Iranian and Saudi officials have signaled that they intend to take other steps to solidify ties, including Saudi investments in Iran.The Iran-Saudi deal has the potential to significantly ease regional tensions. The UN envoy for Yemen has said there is renewed momentumtoward ending the war in Yemen in the wake of the Iran-Saudi rapprochement. Saudi Arabia and Yemen’s Houthis have been engaged in Omani-mediated peace talks.According to some media reports, Iran agreed to stop arming the Houthisas part of the deal with Saudi Arabia, although Tehran has always denied accusations that they send weapons to the group. Iran is a political ally of the Houthis and likely provides some material support, but not nearly as much as the US has provided the Saudi-led coalition in Yemen.

Warring Sides in Yemen Agree on Prisoner Swap to Release Over 800 Detainees - The Houthis and the Saudi-backed Yemeni government have agreed on a major prisoner swap that will release over 800 detainees after the two sides held 10 days of talks in Geneva, Switzerland.The Houthis said they agreed to release 181 prisoners, including 15 Saudis and three Sudanese. In exchange, the Saudi-backed government will release 706 people. The deal was brokered by the UN and the International Committee of the Red Cross.The prisoner swap comes as the Saudis and the Houthis are engaged in separate negotiations that are being mediated by Oman to bring an end to the war in Yemen. Hans Grundberg, the UN special envoy for Yemen, said the prisoner exchange deal was another sign that things are “moving in the right direction” when it comes to ending the war.Grundberg has also welcomed the surprise deal between Saudi Arabia and Iran to normalize relations that was brokered by China. After the agreement was announced, Grundberg said there was more momentumgoing toward a Yemen peace deal. The Saudis and Houthis agreed to a ceasefire at the end of March 2022 that lasted until October 2022. Since the truce expired, there have still been no recorded Saudi airstrikes in Yemen or any Houthi attacks inside Saudi Arabia. The blockade that has been enforced by the US-backed Saudi-led coalition since 2015 has also been eased but not fully lifted.

Report: Saudi Arabia Agrees to Establish Ties With Syria -- Saudi Arabia and Syria have agreed to establish ties and reopen their embassies after over a decade of not having formal diplomatic relations,Reuters reported on Thursday.Unnamed sources told Reuters that contacts between Riyadh and Damascus gained momentum following the surprise Saudi-Iran normalization deal that was brokered by China. Tehran is a major ally of the Syrian government of President Bashar al-Assad.Saudi Arabia severed diplomatic relations with Syria in 2011 and threw its support behind the failed US-backed regime change effort. As it’s become clear that Assad isn’t going anywhere, more regional countries have been normalizing with his government, an effort led by the UAE, which reopened its embassy in Syria in 2018.One source told Reuters that Syria and Saudi Arabia are “preparing to reopen embassies after Eid al-Fitr,” a Muslim holiday that will be celebrated on April 21 and April 22.The US is against any normalization steps between Syria and regional countries as it occupies about one-third of Syrian territory and maintains crippling economic sanctions on the country. The Biden administration has even come out against countries upgrading ties with Assad as part of an effort to help Syria recover from a devastating earthquake that hit on February 6 and killed thousands of Syrians.

Israeli Airstrikes Hit Syria’s Aleppo Airport for Second Time This Month -- Israeli airstrikes hit Syria’s Aleppo airport early Wednesday for the second time this month as the region is still recovering from a devastating earthquake that hit Syria and Turkey on February 6.“At about 03:55 am on Wednesday, the Israeli enemy launched an aerial act of aggression with a number of missiles from the direction of the Mediterranean Sea, west of Latakia, targeting the vicinity of Aleppo International Airport,” a Syrian military source told the Syrian news agencySANA.The source did not report any casualties but said “material damage” had been done. Bassem Mansour, head of Syria’s civil aviation, said the strike put the airport out of service and added that “the airport will resume work within a short period.”The city of Aleppo was seriously damaged by the earthquake and has been receiving flights carrying vital aid through the airport. The Israeli strikes that hit the airport earlier this month also put it out of service, forcing Syria to reroute aid flights to Damascus and Latakia.Israel has been bombing Syria for years and began targeting the country’s airports more frequently starting in 2022. Israel rarely comments on individual airstrikes but claims its operations in Syria target Iran’s military presence and arms shipments, but they often kill Syrians and damage civilian infrastructure.

US Launches Airstrikes in Syria After Drone Attack Kills US Contractor -The Pentagon announced on Thursday night that it launched airstrikes in Syria after a drone attack killed a US contractor and wounded five US troops near Hasakah in northeast Syria.Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin said that at the direction of President Biden, he authorized “US Central Command forces to conduct precision airstrikes tonight in eastern Syria against facilities used by groups affiliated with Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC).”The groups the US targeted were likely Shia militias that operate in Syria. The Pentagon claimed that US intelligence determined the drone was of “Iranian origin,” but at this point, there’s no indication that Tehran was involved in the attack on the US base.The Pentagon said that “two of the wounded service members were treated on site, while three additional service members and the US contractor were medically evacuated to Coalition medical facilities in Iraq.” The US has about 900 troops stationed in eastern Syria, and US bases in the country frequently come under attack. President Biden has previously launched airstrikes against Shia militias in the country.

U.S. air defenses not fully working ahead of strike that killed American in Syria: reports - The main air defense system at a military base housing U.S. troops and personnel in Northeast Syria was not fully working Thursday when a drone attack killed one American contractor at the facility, multiple outlets reported Friday. The New York Times first reported that the electronic counter-defense system was not fully functional at the coalition base known as RLZ. One U.S. official told the outlet the Avenger missile defense system at the base may have been experiencing a maintenance problem at the time of the attack. Pentagon press secretary Brig. Gen. Patrick Ryder told reporters Friday that “there was a complete sight picture in terms of radar,” but declined to offer further details, citing operational security. He added that U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) “will conduct a review to assess what happened.” The U.S. military launched retaliatory attacks roughly 13 hours after a drone “of Iranian origin” crashed into the base near Hasakah, killing the contractor and injuring five U.S. service members and another contractor, Ryder said. Two Air Force F-15E fighter jets struck two facilities in eastern Syria affiliated with Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), with initial assessments that the facilities were destroyed. Asked how the drone was able to crash into the base even with the radar working, Ryder shifted blame to Iranian-backed militias in the area. “This is a dangerous part of the world. The work that we do is inherently dangerous, that’s why you have the military in these types of places conducting these types of operations,” Ryder said. “CENTCOM will do an assessment in terms of the attack. But the fact is that these IRGC-backed groups conducted this attack and unfortunately, we had an American killed.” He also would not say if there was an effort to shoot down the drone, only noting that “we take a variety of measures to safeguard our people.”

Second US base hit in Syria following retaliatory strikes - Rockets hit another U.S. base in Syria on Friday following a U.S. strike on facilities controlled by Iranian-backed militia groups. The rocket attacks fired at the Green Village base, located in the Al-Omar gas field of northeastern Syria, caused no casualties, according to Maj. John Moore, a spokesperson for U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM). Washington launched retaliatory strikes on Thursday night against Iranian-backed fighters after a drone strike killed a U.S. contractor and injured five American service members along with another contractor earlier that day. The drone strike was carried out by groups affiliated with Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, according to the Pentagon, at a coalition base near Hasakah in northeast Syria around 1:38 p.m. local time on Thursday. After carrying out the retaliatory strikes in response to the drone attack, CENTCOM’s commander, Gen. Michael Kurilla, said the U.S. will “always take all necessary measures to defend our people and will always respond at a time and place of our choosing.” “We are postured for scalable options in the face of any additional Iranian attacks,” Kurilla said in a statement. “The thoughts and prayers of US Central Command are with the family of our contractor killed and with our wounded servicemembers and contractor. “Our troops remain in Syria to ensure the enduring defeat of ISIS, which benefits the security and stability of not only Syria, but the entire region,” he continued.

Putin Tells Xi He's Open To Negotiating Process On Ukraine As US Says Ceasefire Unacceptable --What's being described as an initial, informal meeting between Presidents Xi and Putin is underway at the Kremlin. While the expected cordialities and expressions of closer relations were exchange, among the most notable early statements came from Putin, who said he's "open" to peace talks with Ukraine and China's mediation efforts."We have a lot of joint tasks, goals," Putin told his Chinese counterpart while also congratulating him on re-election as the head of the Chinese state for a third 5-year term. Xi in return said "Russia succeeded in promoting prosperity under Putin’s leadership." Putin further expressed that "we will discuss your initiative [on Ukraine] which we view with respect.""We are open for a negotiating process on Ukraine," the Russian leader added. He noted to Xi that "we have looked at your proposals for the resolution of the Ukraine conflict" and previewed that "we will discuss this question." The day prior in media interviews, White House NSC spokesperson John Kirby declared that any "call for a ceasefire" in Ukraine is "unacceptable."Likely Moscow will only be satisfied with nothing short of a full Kiev recognition of the Donbass being under Russia; however, this is the very thing Washington will condemn and seek to induce the Zelensky administration to resist.According to state media commentary (RT), "Moscow has said that it would consider the proposal but has pointed to several factors that stand in the way of a peaceful resolution in Ukraine." And more of Moscow's perspective headed into more Xi meetings: "Those include the insistence of Kiev and its Western backers on inflicting a military defeat of Russia, their firm opposition to any sort of ceasefire, as well as a law enacted by Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky that forbids holding negotiations with Russia as long as Putin remains in office."

Putin Says China’s Peace Plan Could Serve as Basis for Settlement in Ukraine - Russian President Vladimir Putin said during a meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Moscow on Tuesday that a 12-point peace plan put forward by Beijing could be the “basis” for a peaceful settlement in Ukraine.“We believe in many of the points on the peace plan put forward by China,” Putin said. Beijing’s proposal calls for the cessation of hostilities and for both sides to resume peace talks.Putin expressed doubt that Kyiv or its Western backers were ready for negotiations, saying the Chinese proposal could be used as a foundation when “the West and in Kyiv are ready for it.” The Biden administration has come out strongly against China’s mediation efforts, as the White Househas said it’s against calls for a ceasefire.But Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is open to discussing the issues with China, and Xi is expected to call him following his trip to Moscow, which wraps up on Wednesday. Zelensky said Tuesday that he has asked Beijing for talks on a “peace formula” for Ukraine.Zelensky has put forward his own peace proposal, which calls for the withdrawal of Russian troops and for war crimes tribunals. “We offered China to become a partner in the implementation of the peace formula. We passed over our formula across all channels. We invite you to dialogue. We are waiting for your answer,” Zelensky said.After holding hours of talks on Tuesday, Putin and Xi put out a joint statement that said China believes Russia is ready to restart peace talks. “The Chinese side positively assesses the willingness of the Russian side to make efforts to restart peace talks as soon as possible,” the statement said.The statement also said that Russia welcomes “China’s readiness to play a positive role in a political-diplomatic settlement of the Ukrainian crisis and the constructive ideas set forth in the document drawn up by the Chinese side.” Secretary of State Antony Blinken on Monday doubled down on the Biden administration’s opposition to a ceasefire, saying the world must “not be fooled” by China’s efforts. The position follows a pattern of the USdiscouraging peace talks throughout the war.

Russia and China are being driven together as the chasm with the West deepens - China and Russia are taking center stage this week as both countries look to deepen ties just as a chasm with the West, on a geopolitical and economic as well as military front, appears to be getting deeper, according to analysts. A three-day state visit by Chinese President Xi Jinping to Moscow this week, which began Monday, was hailed by China and Russia's presidents as the result of solid and cooperative relations between the two leaders and their respective nations, and comes after a determined drive over the last decade to strengthen diplomatic, defense and trade ties. Ahead of the visit, President Vladimir Putin said in an article that "unlike some countries claiming hegemony and bringing discord to the global harmony, Russia and China are literally and figuratively building bridges" while his Chinese counterpart returned the favor, telling AFP he is "confident the visit will be fruitful and give new momentum to the healthy and stable development of Chinese-Russian relations." Xi's visit to Moscow is something of a political coup for Russia given that it comes at a time when Russia has few high-powered friends left on the international stage, and little to show for its invasion of Ukraine. Russian forces have made little tangible progress despite a year of fighting, and a largely isolated Moscow continues to labor under the weight of international sanctions. To add insult to injury, the International Criminal Court issued an arrest warrant for Putin on Friday, alleging that he is responsible for war crimes committed in Ukraine during the war. Nonetheless, China and Russia have long shared similar geopolitical aims, such as a desire to see what they call a "multi-polar world" and the curbing of NATO's military might, that unite them. And perhaps the most significant shared viewpoint of all is their mutual, long-standing distrust of the West. A confluence of recent events — from the war in Ukraine to Western restrictions on semiconductor tech exports to China and, lately, a nuclear submarines deal between the U.S., U.K. and Australia that irked Beijing — has only served to bring the countries even closer together, according to analysts. "If you look at the trajectory of China-Russia relations within the last decade, bilateral ties between the two countries have really developed tremendously," Alicja Bachulska, policy fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) told CNBC, saying that the process of developing ties had begun back in the 1990s. "It's basically about certain strategic interests, that are very close to both Beijing and Moscow at this point," she added. "For both Russia and China, the main interest is to weaken the U.S.-led international order, that's their primary goal, long term and short term." For both China and Russia, the war in Ukraine is both a challenge to that U.S.-led world order and a way to undermine it, analysts note. China has held back from openly supporting Russia's war in Ukraine but it has also refused to condemn the invasion. Instead, it has echoed Moscow in criticizing the U.S. and NATO for what it sees as "fueling the fire" over Ukraine.. It has also sought to carve out a niche for itself as peacemaker, calling on both sides to agree a cease-fire and come to the negotiating table for talks. Behind the scenes, the West is concerned that Beijing could provide lethal weaponry to Russia to enable it to gain the upper hand in Ukraine, as U.S. intelligence suggested last month. Ukraine's Western allies have signaled that any move to do so would be a red line and that, should Beijing cross it, there would be "consequences" in the form of sanctions placed on China. Beijing has vehemently denied it is planning on supplying Russia with any military hardware. China's foreign ministry spokesman Wang Wenbin said Monday, reiterating previous comments, that the West was supplying weapons to Ukraine, not China, telling reporters that "the U.S. side should stop fueling the fires and fanning the flames ... and play a constructive role for a political solution to the crisis in Ukraine, not the other way around."

Call me anytime: Zelenskyy plays the long game with Xi Jinping – — Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is happy to unleash withering criticism against countries including Hungary and Germany for getting too close to the Russians. But he’s playing a diplomatic long game with Moscow’s No. 1 ally: Chinese President Xi Jinping. There are good reasons for not riling the Chinese, despite their “no-limits partnership” with Moscow. Zelenskyy wants to keep Beijing onside as an investor, trade partner and potential middleman — rather than push it away, and run the risk of Xi approving major exports of arms to Russia’s forces. In the years ahead, China’s deep pockets are also likely to play a role in helping Ukraine rebuild from the devastation of war. As Xi visits Moscow this week, speculation is mounting that he could also finally hold the first phone call with Zelenskyy since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. While no call has been confirmed, U.S. National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan said he would welcome such a conversation between Xi and Zelenskyy, noting, “We believe that the [People’s Republic of China] and President Xi himself should hear directly the Ukrainian perspective and not just the Russian perspective.” Beijing and Kyiv are hardly strangers. Before the war, China was Ukraine’s leading trade partner as well as being a massive market for Black Sea barley and corn. It also invested heavily in Ukrainian infrastructure such as ports and telecommunication. At pains to avoid ructions with such a crucial partner, Kyiv even abstained during a U.N. vote last year to condemn China’s persecution of its Uyghur Muslim minority.

Japanese leader heading to Ukraine for talks with Zelenskyy - — Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida is heading to Kyiv early Tuesday for talks with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. Japan’s public television NHK showed Kishida riding a train from Poland heading to Kyiv. Kishida’s surprise trip to Ukraine comes just hours after he met with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi in New Delhi. Kishida, who is to chair the Group of Seven summit in May, is the only G-7 leader who hasn’t visited Ukraine and was under pressure to do so at home. Japan has been in step with other G-7 nations in sanctioning Russia and supporting Ukraine over Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine. Kishida is expected to offer continuing support for Ukraine when he meets with Zelenskyy.

Provocative Putin makes surprise trip to occupied Mariupol – A provocative Vladimir Putin made a surprise weekend visit to Russian-occupied Mariupol, one of the symbols of Ukrainian resistance. Mariupol, a port city on the Sea of Azov, is located in Ukraine’s Donetsk Oblast and this is the Russian president’s first trip in the region since the start of his war against Ukraine in February 2022. Mariupol fell to Russia last May, after the Kremlin failed to seize Kyiv. The battle for Mariupol was one of the war’s longest and bloodiest, as Moscow’s troops carried out some of their most notorious strikes. The Russian assaults included an attack on a maternity ward, which the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) said was a war crime, and the bombing of a theater that was clearly marked as housing children. It is the closest to the front lines Putin has been since the yearlong war began. The move is likely to be seen as particularly provoking to Ukrainians. The trip to Mariupol came after Putin travelled to Crimea on Saturday in an unannounced visit to mark the ninth anniversary of Russia’s annexation of the peninsula from Ukraine, the Kremlin said in a statement.

UK to Give Ukraine Depleted Uranium Shells Despite Russian Warnings - A British official has confirmed that the UK will be providing Ukraine with depleted uranium shells to be used with the British-made Challenger 2 tanks despite warnings from Russia that it would consider the use of the toxic ammunition the same as a dirty bomb.“Alongside our granting of a squadron of Challenger 2 main battle tanks to Ukraine, we will be providing ammunition including armor piercing rounds which contain depleted uranium. Such rounds are highly effective in defeating modern tanks and armored vehicles,” said Annabel Goldie, the British deputy defense minister, in a written response to a question posted on the British Parliament’s website.Depleted uranium is typically created as a byproduct of producing enriched uranium and is extremely dense. Because depleted uranium munitions are radioactive, they are linked to cancer and birth defects, especially in Iraq, where US forces used an enormous number of the controversial munitions during the Gulf War and the 2003 invasion. Birth defects are still common in the Iraqi city of Fallujah to this day, likely due to depleted uranium.Responding to the news, Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu warned that sending Ukraine depleted uranium rounds brings the world closer to a “nuclear collision” between Russia and the West and warned Moscow would respond. “Naturally, Russia has something to answer this with,” he said.Russian President Vladimir Putin also vowed a response. “If all this happens, Russia will have to respond accordingly, given that the West collectively is already beginning to use weapons with a nuclear component,” he said after a summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Moscow.Western-provided depleted uranium rounds could already be in Ukraine’s hands as the US has refused to say if the Bradley Fighting Vehicles it has provided Ukraine are armed with the toxic ammunition. Bradleys can be equipped with depleted uranium, earning them the nickname “tank killers.”

Polish Ambassador to France: Poland will be forced to enter war if Ukraine fails to defend itself - Poland’s Ambassador to France Jan Emeryk Rościszewski said in an interview that a situation could arise in which Poland would have to enter the war. The embassy urged audiences to refrain from sensationalising his words. Rościszewski in an interview with LCI, a French TV channel; Rzeczpospolita, a Polish media outlet, citing Poland’s Embassy in France: "It is not NATO, Poland or Slovakia that are mounting ever more pressure, but Russia, which has invaded Ukraine. Russia, which is seizing its territories. Russia, which is killing its people. And Russia, which is abducting Ukrainian children. Therefore, either Ukraine will defend its independence today, or we will have to enter this conflict. Because our main values, which were the basis of our civilization and our culture will be threatened. Therefore, we will have no choice but to enter the conflict."

US Moves Drone Flight Paths Further From Crimea On Russian Threats Of "Countermeasures" -- Russia is again putting the US on notice after last week's drone intercept incident which resulted in an American MQ-9 Reaper drone crashing into the Black Sea. The Pentagon said it intended to continue patrolling international territory despite the Kremlin asserting it had closed down some airspace over the Black Sea as part of its 'special operation' in Ukraine.Russia's Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov in a new warning has said Moscow will take "countermeasures" against any further US or NATO drone flights over these parts of the Black Sea where the intercept incident occurred."We warn them against trying to play on their nerves, testing our patience," Ryabkov said, according to RIA Novosti. The US drone "was in a zone where we introduced a special regime associated with conducting military exercises," he said.He vowed that Russia's sovereignty and security will be ensured "by all means available" and that "no American drones, whether reconnaissance, strike, strategic or any other kind" will "shake their determination."According to sources cited in CNN, the Pentagon has altered the paths of its drone flights further away from the Crimea peninsula on fears that another incident such as last week's could spark a shooting war with Russia:

US Sails Warship Near Chinese-Controlled Islands in the South China Sea On Thursday, the US sailed a warship near the Chinese-controlled Paracel Islands in the South China Sea amid heightened tensions between Washington and Beijing in the region.China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA) said it drove away the guided-missile destroyer USS Milius after it “illegally” sailed near the disputed islands. The US Navy’s Seventh Fleet disputed China’s claims and said the Milinus “was not expelled.”The US doesn’t recognize most of China’s claims to the South China Sea and began challenging them during the Obama administration by sending warships near Chinese-controlled islands, maneuvers dubbed “Freedom of Navigation Operations.”China and several of its Southeast Asian neighbors have overlapping claims to the South China Sea. The Paracel Islands are claimed by China, Taiwan, and Vietnam.The dispute has become a major source of tensions between the US and China as Washington has become involved and has increased its military activity in the South China Sea.The US also backs the Philippines’ claims against China and has been deepening military cooperation with Manila. The US and the Philippines signed a deal last month that will give the US military access to four more bases in the Philippines, including one in Palawan, a Philippine province facing the South China Sea. China is strongly against the US military expansion in the Philippines and has made that clear to Manila. Beijing is not happy that some of the new bases will be in northern areas of the Philippines, facing Taiwan.

China, Cambodia Hold First-Ever Joint Naval Drills - China and Cambodia have launched their first-ever joint naval drills as the two Asian nations continue to forge stronger ties despite objections from Washington.The drills, named China-Cambodia Golden Dragon 2023, began on March 20 and will be held through April 8. About 3,000 military personnel from both nations will participate in the exercises.Last year, the Chinese and Cambodian militaries signed a memorandum of understanding to boost cooperation. Officials said at the time that the future cooperation would include military exercises, training, and other exchanges.The military agreement came after the Biden administration slapped sanctions on Cambodia over its relationship with China. The US sanctioned two Cambodian officials in 2021 due to Chinese construction at the Ream Naval Base, which the US claims will lead to a Chinese base in Cambodia, an allegation Pnom Penh has denied.The US later imposed an arms embargo on Cambodia, but the pressure has not deterred Phnom Penh from moving closer to Beijing. Cambodia and other members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) have found themselves at the center of the new Cold War between the US and China.

Former Taiwanese President to Make Historic Visit to Mainland China - Former Taiwanese President Ma Ying-jeou will lead a delegation to mainland China next week in an effort to improve cross-strait relations as tensions are soaring in the region.The trip will be historic as no Taiwanese president, whether former or sitting, has visited China since Chiang Kai-shek and his Kuomintang (KMT) forces fled to Taiwan in 1949 following their defeat in the civil war against the Communist Party of China.Today, the KMT is the main opposition party and favors friendlier relations with Beijing than the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP). The DPP and President Tsai Ing-wen have taken steps to significantly boost ties with the US, resulting in more Chinese military pressure on the island, making a conflict seem much more likely.Ma served as president from 2008 to 2016 and is still a senior leader in the KMT. Hsiao Hsu-tsen, the executive director of Ma’s foundation, said there should be more exchanges between the two sides of the Taiwan Strait.“Instead of buying more weapons, it would be better to increase exchanges between young people of the two sides of the Taiwan Strait,” Hsiao said, according to The South China Morning Post. “The more they are able to promote their friendship, the less risk there will be.”Hsiao said Ma believes the DPP’s policies will only increase the chance of war. Ma’s visit to China will focus on fostering exchanges between young people and paying tribute to his ancestors.

Empire-Funded Think Tanks Are Not Valid Sources: Notes From The Edge Of The Narrative Matrix – Caitlin Johnstone --ATTENTION JOURNALISTS:It is never, ever acceptable, under any circumstances, to cite think tanks funded by governments and the military industrial complex as sources of information or expertise on matters of national security or foreign affairs.If you do cite them (and, again, don’t), then at the very least you need to disclose the conflict of interest their funding causes in your reporting, and you need to make it abundantly clear to your audience that it is a conflict of interest.This happens every single day in the western media, but just as an example take the way the independent Australian publication Crikey has shamefully published a bogus propaganda piece about the Chinese government persecuting LGBT people, with their sole source being the empire-fundedAustralian Strategic Policy Institute.As soon as you do this, you’re guilty of journalistic malpractice. As soon as you find yourself writing anything like “According to my source from the Australian Strategic Policy Institute,” you have ceased to function as a journalist and are now functioning as a propagandist. It’s insane that this extremely obvious fact isn’t better understood. You all get that you can’t cite unverifiable claims by outlets like RT or Sputnik unless it’s for official statements from the Russian government, but for some reason you’ve been told that it’s okay to cite think tanks that are paid by western governments and arms manufacturers in your reporting. It isn’t, and it never has been. It has always been a brazen violation of journalistic ethics, and if you give it a moment of intellectually honest thought, you will know this to be true.

As G-20 comes to India, Narendra Modi launches a public relations blitz - — When most countries assume the rotating presidency of the Group of 20 nations, they usually host the meetings with relatively little fanfare. But when India’s leaders took over as host of the global summit this year, they opted for something less modest. In the Indian capital, officials have projected a G-20 hologram onto Humayun’s Tomb, the famous Mughal-era monument. In remote states, local leaders have paraded G-20-themed floats during religious festivals. Standardized tests handed out to 10th-graders have come stamped with the “G-20 India” logo, which incorporates a lotus, the symbol of the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). And from New Delhi to Mumbai, roads have been blanketed by billboards that block the view of slums while reminding commuters that India, the “Mother of Democracy,” is now hosting important world leaders.“Big responsibilities, bigger ambitions,” read the signs every few blocks, which feature the smiling visage of the prime minister himself, Narendra Modi.With G-20 meetings scheduled in India this year — beginning with a finance ministers’ gathering in Bangalore in February and culminating in a leaders summit that will see President Biden fly into New Delhi in September — the Modi government has seized upon its role as host to mount an extraordinary public relations campaign. From billboards touting India’s arrival at “the global high table” to newspaper op-eds by cabinet ministers extolling India’s newfound influence, the advertising blitz is hammering home the message that Modi, a staunch nationalist,is winning clout and respect for India internationally.While many leaders use foreign policy accomplishments to gain a domestic boost, the Modi government’s eagerness to showcase the G-20 and highlight his involvement in hot-button international issues points to an evolution in India’s politics, analysts say. As India has grown in wealth and influence, voters in the world’s fifth-largest economy are increasingly attuned to their country’s international role and image — thanks, in no small part, to the BJP’s relentless messaging.“There is no question in my mind that the hype and excitement around India’s G-20 presidency are unlike anything that I’ve ever seen with any other country that has hosted the summit,” said Milan Vaishnav, head of the South Asia Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in Washington. “What Modi has managed to do, which very few politicians have done in India, is make foreign policy a domestic political issue.”

French government narrowly survives no-confidence vote amid backlash over pension changes - The government of French President Emmanuel Macron narrowly survived a no-confidence vote Monday evening, as furious opposition lawmakers contested his decision to force changes to the pension system through parliament without a poll. The vote of no-confidence against the government was rejected by just nine votes (278 voted in favor, more than expected). Two no-confidence motions had been filed — one by a coalition of centrist and left-wing parties, and a second by the far-right National Rally. The latter now has no chance of going through. Analysts had already told CNBC on Friday that Macron's opponents were unlikely to reach the required 287 out of 577 votes. The vote could have led to the resignation of Prime Minister Elisabeth Borne, who announced the government's intention to use the special constitutional measure to pass the long-standing plan to raise the retirement age. As the no-confidence vote has failed, the bill will now likely go through and lift the retirement age of most workers from 62 to 64 by 2030.

Why France is in revolt over President Macron's move to raise the retirement age : NPR -- France has revolted against President Emmanuel Macron's move to raise the retirement age from 62 to 64. The protests offer some insight into how the French view work and life.Thousands have marched in the streets in recent weeks against the move, while public transport workers, teachers and garbage collectors have all striked en masse to show their disapproval. It comes alongside a worldwide trend of workers feeling unsatisfied with their labor conditions, says Marc Loriol, a sociologist and the research director at the French National Center for Scientific Research. Raising the retirement age has been widely unpopular since the measure was put forward in January.Then, last Thursday, when it became apparent it would not pass through France's parliament, Macron used a constitutional power to force through the change without a vote. The fierce opposition to the idea is in part thanks to France's work culture; one that places a heavy emphasis on quality of life, work-life balance, and a comfortable retirement. Reporter Lisa Bryant told Morning Edition: "The French are fiercely protective of their universal health care and generous pensions. And it's a choice society has made: Work hard, pay high taxes, but also retire at a relatively young age with a high standard of living." France's current retirement age of 62 is low compared to other European countries. Macron has long talked about raising it because of the country's demographic changes: There are more and more older people and comparatively fewer workers to fund the government pension. Loriol told NPR how the French attitude towards work had also changed over time: "Work is very important for French people, but since about 20 or 30 years ago, a lot of jobs have become precarious. [Before], people were hired in an enterprise and if the job was good, they climbed the ladder, and they could obtain a higher position in the company. Now, it's more and more difficult because people are not hiring [employees] for life. It's something that has changed in France particularly, because that was tradition before. So [now], people say, 'I can't think my work is my only goal in my life.'"

Credit Suisse and the power of money - In order to avoid being dragged into the abyss by the country's second-largest bank, the government in Bern has pledged Switzerland's fate to the country's largest bank come what may. This is the significance of their decision on Sunday to let UBS take over Credit Suisse (CS) and to cover the risk of the merger. It could not have demonstrated more clearly that it is not the people but big capital that determines politics. The financial institutions are both on the list of the 30 “global systemically important banks” that are considered “too big to fail.” The merger creates a monster bank with a balance sheet total of CHF (Swiss francs) 1.5 trillion ($1.6 trillion), almost twice the gross domestic product of Switzerland, which amounted to CHF 771 billion in 2022. If it enters a tailspin, it will trigger a tsunami that will drag the Swiss state budget and parts of the world economy into the abyss. “This puts the Swiss government and the National Bank at enormous risk,” writes the German weekly Die Zeit. “If this monster institute gets in trouble, it takes the whole country and its population hostage.” The takeover of its competitor promises to be a lucrative business for UBS. It paid 3 billion francs in shares for the bank with a balance sheet total of 531 billion francs, which was still worth 7.4 billion francs at the time of the deal. 22.5 CS shares were exchanged for 1 UBS share. Nevertheless, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) and the Federal Government covered the risks of the merger with more than CHF 200 billion in public funds. By way of comparison, the Swiss federal budget will amount to around 80 billion Swiss francs in 2023. The SNB provided extraordinary liquidity assistance totalling CHF 200 billion, of which CHF 100 billion is secured by the Confederation. An additional CHF 9 billion in guarantees to UBS for any losses resulting from the acquisition of certain business units of CS have also been provided. Neither the parliament nor the citizens, who have a broad right to organise referendums in Switzerland, were questioned. Even the shareholders of the two banks could not participate. The government decided by emergency law. In some cases, there was not even a legal basis. For example, the law for the 100 billion franc guarantee to the central bank is to be enacted only in the coming months. While representatives of the government, the central bank and the financial regulator constantly sought to reassure the markets with talk about “manageable” risks, in reality they are enormous. “Of course, the meltdown scenario is by no means off the table,” commented Der Spiegel. “It is still entirely unclear whether the Swiss emergency merger is the end point of a short, ten-day rollercoaster ride on the capital markets or the start of a hellish ride that will also plunge other institutions into the abyss because panic is spreading around.”

UK Home Secretary Suella Braverman visits Rwanda in propaganda trip in pursuit of her Illegal Migrations Bill --UK Home Secretary Suella Braverman visited Rwanda over the weekend in a propaganda exercise boosting her Illegal Migration Bill.The Bill, which will deny the right to asylum to virtually anyone deemed to have entered Britain “illegally”, passed its second reading in Parliament on March 20 and is expected to be on the statute books by summer/autumn, depending on the success of legal challenges. It targets desperate migrants who reach the UK on small boats via the hazardous English Channel. As Braverman introduced the Bill last week, she invoked the fascistic imagery of hordes of migrants laying siege to the UK, “There are 100 million people around the world who could qualify for protection under our current laws. Let’s be clear. They are coming here.” Prime Minister Rishi Sunak welcomed the policy from a Downing Street podium with a sign reading, “Stop the Boats”. A duty will be placed on ministers to remove refugees “as soon as reasonably practicable” to a third country. Introducing the Bill, Braverman said that one of the countries where they would be deported is Rwanda. Britain has already handed its government more than £140 million since last April under the Migration and Economic Development Partnership, to fund the building of camps for deportees.Braverman and her sadistic, sociopathic policy are proof of the social scum which has risen to the top of bourgeois politics.Last October, she told the Conservative Party conference it was her “dream” and “obsession” to see asylum seekers put on deportation flights to Rwanda. She described Channel crossings by migrants fleeing war, poverty and persecution in their homelands—the result of imperialist wars and intrigues backed by Britain over decades—as “an invasion of our southern coast”.In Rwanda, Braverman visited the hovels being built by the Rwandan regime, at a cost as low as £14,000 each, proclaiming these hellholes ideal lifetime accommodation for migrants deported from Britain. Shown around a block being built in a war-torn, hunger-stricken country, she told her guide, “I really like your interior designer. I need some advice for myself.” Pointing at an architect’s plan she said of migrants being deported with nothing but the clothes they stood up in, “And if people have a car, they can park their car here?” While she was there, the Rwanda deportation policy was widened to affect almost any migrant entering Britain, with the Home Office announcing a “memorandum of understanding, expanding the partnership further to all categories of people who pass through safe countries and make illegal and dangerous journeys to the UK.”

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Monday, March 27, 2023

week ending Mar 25

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