week ending Apr 8

Fed’s Balance Sheet Plunges by $101 Billion in Two Weeks, as QT Continues and Bank Liquidity Support Begins to Unwind by Wolf Richter - The Federal Reserve’s balance sheet plunged by $101 billion in two weeks – by $74 billion in the current week and by $27 billion in the prior week – to $8.63 trillion, as quantitative tightening (QT) continued at the normal pace and as banks have started paying back the liquidity support offered by the Fed whenSilicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank collapsed, and a week later when, under pressure from Suisse regulators, Credit Suisse was taken under by UBS.During the last post-meeting press conference, Powell explained this new regime – the distinction between ongoing tightening and brief liquidity support for the banks, and that both can run simultaneously. Looking at it with a magnifying glass to see the details of the past four weeks. QT continued with Treasury securities: -$56 billion in four weeks, -$491 billion from peak, to $5.28 trillion, the lowest since August, 2021.Treasury notes and bonds “roll off” the balance sheet when they mature, which is when the Fed gets paid face value for the maturing Treasury securities. Maturity dates fall either on the middle of the month or at the end of the month.The cap for the monthly roll-off is $60 billion; in February, the Fed exceeded the cap by a hair, in March, it was a hair short. QT continued with MBS: -$16 billion in four weeks, -$146 billion from peak, to $2.59 trillion.The Fed only holds “Agency MBS” which are all backed by the US government, and the taxpayer carries the credit risk.Mortgage-backed securities roll off the balance sheet primarily through the pass-through principal payments that all holders receive when mortgages are paid off, such as when mortgaged homes are sold or mortgages are refinanced, and when regular mortgage payments are made.The cap for the monthly roll-off is $35 billion. The roll off has been below the cap as home sales have plunged and as refis have collapsed.The Discount Window (“Primary Credit”) has been available for banks for a long time. Being lender of last resort to the banks during a bank panic is one of the Fed’s functions. But this is expensive money for banks. After the rate hikes on March 22, the Fed charges banks 5.0% to borrow at the Discount Window. In addition, they have to post collateral valued at “fair market value.” So after the initial spike on the March 15 balance sheet, the banks that had borrowed at this facility started paying down their loans quickly.It seems – we don’t get names – some banks are paying down their discount window loans with funds they borrowed under the new liquidity program, the Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP), that the Fed rolled out on March 13.Under the BTFP, banks can borrow for up to one year, at a fixed rate, pegged to the one-year overnight index swap rate plus 10 basis points. This rate is currently somewhat lower than the 5% discount window rate. Banks also have to post collateral, but valued only “at par.”To be eligible for the BTFP, per term sheet, the collateral has to be “owned by the borrower as of March 12, 2023,” and banks cannot buy securities at market price and post them as collateral at par.For banks, the BTFP is still expensive money – though less expensive than the Discount Window – because they have to post collateral, when they could normally borrow from depositors or unsecured bondholders without having to post any collateral.Discount Window: -$18 billion in the week, -$83 billion in three weeks, to $70 billion (from the peak of $153 billion three weeks ago).Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP): +$15 billion in the week, to $79 billion.This chart shows both, the loans at the Discount Window (red) and the loans at the BTFP (green):

Cleveland Fed's Mester sees rates above 5% amid 'too high and too stubborn' inflation - Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester said Tuesday night she sees interest rates moving above 5% and rates adjusted for inflation staying in positive territory for "some time.""Precisely how much higher the federal funds rate will need to go from here and for how long policy will need to remain restrictive will depend on how much inflation and inflation expectations are moving down," Mester said in a speech at the Money Marketeers of New York University.How quickly these pressures are resolved will depend, in part, on supply chain challenges easing and demand slowing down, Mester noted.The Federal Reserve last month raised interest rates by 0.25% to a target range of 4.75%-5%, the highest since 2007. Mester is not a voting member of the FOMC this year, but will vote on policy in 2024.In her speech on Tuesday, Mester called inflation "too high and too stubborn.""The disaggregated data show that the inflation stubbornness is due mainly to the prices of services," Mester said. Mester said core services excluding housing, a measure Fed Chair Jerome Powell has highlighted in recent months, has not shown many signs of improving, noting this measure, "tends to be sticky, is correlated with wage inflation, and is a much larger share of the overall index than goods or housing, since consumers spend a larger share of their income on these services."The Fed's preferred measure of inflation — the personal consumption expenditures price index excluding volatile food and energy prices — climbed 4.6% in February from a year earlier, data out last week showed."So while the level of inflation is lower than it was last summer, in February, the year-over-year measures of both total PCE inflation and core PCE inflation were in the 4.5%-5% percent range, which is well above our 2 percent goal," Mester saidAs has become custom among Fed officials in recent weeks Mester acknowledged the challenges facing the banking system following the collapse of three banks in March but said, "The U.S. banking system is sound and resilient."Mester said tensions in the banking system as a result of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank's failures, could result in banks tightening lending, leading to households and businesses becoming more cautious in their spending. She said the Fed will take this into account when setting rates.“Directionally, we know that credit conditions are likely going to be somewhat tighter, and we will be assessing the magnitude and duration of these effects on the economic outlook to help us calibrate the appropriate path of monetary policy going forward,” she said.In the wake of the bank failures, Mester noted that bringing down inflation and financial stability are both important and that the Fed will adjust the monetary path if needed. "[Both] price stability and financial stability are important for a healthy economy, and I do not see a tradeoff between the two," Mester said.

Fed’s Cook Says Disinflation Underway But More Still Needed -Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook said US inflation has started easing but with labor markets still tight, price pressures are emanating from that. “Our tools are our tools and we certainly see tightening taking place,” Cook said Monday during an event organized by the University of Michigan Economics Department. Given tightness in the labor market, “we are still going to see inflation from that but we’ve seen wage gains moderating quite a bit,” she said.Fed officials raised interest rates by a quarter percentage point last month, bringing their policy benchmark to a target range of 4.75% to 5%, up from near zero a year earlier. Forecasts released at the same time show the 18 officials expect rates to reach 5.1% by year-end, according to their median projection, implying one more 25 basis-point hike. Policymakers are continuing their fight against inflation, which they say remains a top concern, even as they acknowledge the uncertainty over how much recent banking turmoil will slow the economy. The Fed is “focused on high inflation because the job market seems to be doing okay,” the governor said. “If at some point there is attention that needs to be paid to one side of the dual mandate then that needs to be done,” Cook said. “That is temporary, but that’s the situation we have right now.” The Fed’s latest rate increase came after the US government stepped in to guarantee deposits at two failed firms and after the Fed introduced a new emergency-lending program to support other banks. The Fed also worked to boost international access to dollars by enhancing swap lines with its key central bank counterparts. Cook said it will be important to watch how much more credit tightens as a result of the uncertainty, a shift that could be especially painful for small businesses. However, she said there would not necessarily be a "steep decline in GDP" because of that tightening and that officials need to keep monitoring economic data.

Oil: OPEC+ just made the Fed's job more complicated. Here's what they did --Several OPEC+ members are set to tighten global production by an additional 1.16 million barrels per day until the end of the year, further burdening central bank efforts to curtail global inflation — but critically protecting the alliance's broader output strategy from political pressures. Washington has stepped in to criticize Sunday's announcement where eight OPEC+ producers — including group leader Saudi Arabia and key allies Kuwait and the UAE — said they would remove more than a combined 1 million barrels per day from global oil markets, as part of an independent initiative unlinked to the broader OPEC+ policy. This adds to Russia's existing intentions to trim 500,000 barrels per day of its own production from February output levels, now until the end of the year — bringing the combined voluntary cuts of OPEC+ members in excess of 1.6 million barrels per day. "We don't think cuts are advisable at this moment, given market uncertainty — and we've made that clear," a spokesperson for the U.S. National Security Council said, according to Reuters. U.S. President Joe Biden's administration has repeatedly lambasted the OPEC+ group for its production cuts, citing the inflationary toll on households and flinging accusations of camaraderie with sanctions-struck Russia. Curbs in production lead to smaller supply, causing higher prices at the pump in importing countries which then provides a boost for headline inflation figures. Relations devolved into a war of words with OPEC+ chair Saudi Arabia at the end of last year, when the oil group agreed a 2 million barrel per day cut until the end of 2023 — a decision upheld at ministerial and technical committees since. One such technical council, the OPEC+ Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee concluded Monday with a statement that acknowledged the voluntary cuts, making no mention of a broader change in formal production policy. Referring to the voluntary cuts, the OPEC Secretariat said they represent "a precautionary measure aimed at supporting the stability of the oil market." Some analysts now warn of prices soaring to $100 per barrel, while Goldman Sachs says it could drive up Brent forecasts by $5 per barrel to $95 per barrel for December 2023. "The anticipated increase in oil prices for the rest of the year as a result of these voluntary cuts could fuel global inflation, prompting a more hawkish stance on interest rate hikes from central banks across the world. That would, however, lower economic growth and reduce oil demand expansion," "But central banks might not deviate from the course of slowing down the hike in borrowing as their views are chiefly shaped by core inflation figures, which will not be as much affected by stronger oil prices as headline data," he said. "The voices of the proponents of the NOPEC bill in the US Congress will also get louder and they will accuse OPEC+ to use oil as a weapon. The step is unreservedly bullish, for now macro worries are overtaken by supply concerns. The move will also lead to further souring of the Saudi-US relationship."

Status of US Dollar as Global Reserve Currency and Exchange Rates: Slow Long-Term Decline on Track - by Wolf Richter -The share of the US-dollar as global reserve currency dropped to 58.4% at the end of Q4, according to the IMF’s new COFER data. This was the dollar’s lowest share of global reserve currencies since 1994. Back in 1978, the dollar’s share started plunging from around 85% of global exchange reserves as inflation exploded in the US, and other central banks got cold feet holding securities denominated in this stuff. In the 1980s, inflation started to come down. But central banks – and the rest of the world – took a long time to regain confidence in the dollar, and the dollar’s share of reserve currencies didn’t bottom out until 1991, with a share of 46%. Then came the bounce until the euro showed up, which put a stop to the bounce. The chart shows the share of the dollar at the end of each year. The US dollar as global reserve currency means that foreign central banks and other foreign official institutions hold US-dollar-denominated assets, such as US Treasury securities, US corporate bonds, US mortgage-backed securities, and the like. These institutions also hold foreign exchange reserves other than dollar-assets. But holdings in their own local currency are not included in foreign exchange reserves; so holdings of dollar-denominated assets by the Federal Reserve are not included; holdings of euro-denominated assets by the ECB are not included, etc. Same for other central banks: their local-currency assets are not included. In dollar terms, at the end of Q4, central banks other than the Fed held $6.47 trillion in USD-denominated assets, such as US Treasury securities, US corporate bonds, and US mortgage-backed securities. Even as the dollar’s share has dropped since 2014, holdings of dollar-assets rose from $4.4 trillion in 2014 to $7.1 trillion in Q3 2021. But then, note the $621 billion drop in USD holdings starting in Q4 2021, which was when the Fed started talking about ending QE and kicking off rate hikes – and by now it has hiked by 475 basis points. The euro is the second largest reserve currency, with a share of 20.5% at the end of 2022. Back in the day when the euro was created, there was talk that it would reach “parity” with the dollar, but the Euro Debt Crisis brought to light the euro’s structural weakness, which ended the parity talk, and the euro has maintained a share of roughly 20% since then. The yen, the third-largest reserve currency, had a share of 5.5% (purple line at the top of the colorful spaghetti at the bottom in the chart). The British pound, the fourth largest reserve currency, had a share of 4.9% (blue line just under the yen). The Chinese renminbi, the fifth largest reserve currency, lost a little ground last year, with its share dipping to 2.7% at the end of 2022. Due the capital controls, convertibility issues, and other issues, it seems central banks are leery of RMB-denominated assets and are moving slowly or not at all. At this pace, the RMB won’t get close to the USD as reserve currency for decades (green line near the very bottom). The other currencies in the spaghetti: Canadian dollar (2.4%), Australian dollar (2.0%), and Swiss franc (0.2%). There is a number of other currencies with a tiny share each (each less than the Swiss franc’s share), and all of them combined have a share of 3.4%.

Three Scenarios For US Liquidity From The Coming US Debt Ceiling Crisis --In a note from Goldman liquidity expert, Borislav Vladimirov published today, and with the debt ceiling crisis (because that's what it will be eventually since nobody has any intention of budging) looming ever closer, the bank has updated an analysis we put together three months ago, and outlined three scenarios for US liquidity over the next 12-24 months:

• Scenario 1 - Higher T-bill issuance is absorbed by money market funds, as the large issuance cheapens Bills, leading to a drop in the RRP and an increase in the TGA – as a result the amount of zero velocity money stays the same and there is no macro or market impact. In the context of unstable bank funding, however, there could be a potential negative impact as cheaper bills and higher expected money market fund returns encourage further shift away from bank deposits from more sophisticated bank clients. Neutral for risky assets with the exception of financials.
• Scenario 2 – T-bill issuance is absorbed by the banks and the non-financial sector in which case the combined amount of RRP and TGA goes UP and bank reserves go down by 600-700bm to 2.6tn. As QT will be running at a pace of 95bn per month there is a steady state balance sheet decline of 855bn Apr-Dec 2023. This means that we can easily hit the lower bound of ample reserves by late Q3 (i.e., we will be reserve constrained not just across small banks but all banks). Bearish for risky assets on 1y horizon.
• Scenario 3 – a soft recession hits with unemployment rate starting to rise in the summer, the Fed stops QT and cuts rates to neutral in Q4. Investors turn bullish on risky assets and cut substantially money market fund holdings. As a result the RRP deposits switch into reserves adding 50% to reserves in 2024. Initially bearish risky assets in 2023 but very bullish for 2024.

Below we excerpt from the note (available for all pro subs) which is a critical read for those trying to map out a market trading guidebook over the next 4 quarters

Centrist Democrats hatch secret plan to head off debt ceiling calamity - A group of House Democrats is secretly crafting a fallback plan to avoid an economy-rattling debt default. The White House wants no part of it. The rogue band of moderate Democrats has spent weeks constructing a break-glass deal with centrist Republicans in case the country goes all the way to the brink on the debt ceiling. As the summertime deadline for action approaches, they’re worried a prolonged standoff could lead to fiscal disaster. But Biden officials and party leaders, however, see it far differently and are bristling at the attempts at a compromise, according to four lawmakers familiar with the discussions. Their party’s message to those plotting centrists: Your efforts are unlikely to succeed and risk hurting our goal of a clean debt ceiling increase. The intraparty friction is growing as Washington’s debt crisis gets less theoretical and more urgent with each passing week. And the freelancing Democratic centrists may not have helped their cause by getting involved just as party leaders began seeing a political advantage in the fiscal fight — as long as they can keep the onus on Speaker Kevin McCarthy to unveil a plan that might pass the GOP-controlled House, with unpopular spending cuts likely to be attached. “We’re gaining ground because of [House Republicans’] inability to put together a plan,” Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer said in a brief interview. “I’m certainly willing to entertain a mix of things on the budget. Not on the debt ceiling.” A White House official said the administration has “not spoken to the Problem Solvers about this.” Centrist Democrats, however, say they’ve been made well aware the effort isn’t likely to win any endorsements from party leaders — and have decided to forge ahead anyway as the debt impasse sparks high anxiety, with Congress gone until April 17. Biden and McCarthy have had zero recent contact on the debt other than jabs exchanged through the press, despite the jittery U.S. banking sector further rattling the situation. Democratic leaders say they’ll accept only a clean debt limit bill, but emboldened House Republicans insist that would never pass their chamber. Complicating it all: Republican leaders won’t yet describe precisely what they want in exchange for their votes to raise the nation’s borrowing ceiling. Schumer, in response, has taken up the chant “show us your plan” for more than two months and counting. Enter that group of moderate Democrats, who have privately met with GOP centrists since February, in defiance of their leadership. Their talks remain in the early stages, and two lawmakers familiar with the discussions said they have not honed specific details yet. One centrist Democrat, who along with others addressed the talks on condition of anonymity, observed that “you’ve got party leaders in both houses that don’t want us to talk to one another.” They’re not listening to those nudges to stop talking: “None of us work for the White House. We work for our constituents. And they should start talking and negotiating,” said Rep. Jared Golden (D-Maine), who co-leads the centrist Blue Dog Coalition.

Lawmakers weigh in on IRS plan for $80 billion funding boost -- Cheers from Democrats and lamentations from Republicans are ringing out over the highly anticipated strategic operating plan from the IRS. The plan is the tax collection agency’s roadmap for the $80 billion funding boost it received from Congress in Democrats’ Inflation Reduction Act (IRA). Inside the plan: Here’s how the IRS will spend its $80 billion funding boost The 10-year plan aims to increase taxpayer service and boost audit rates on wealthy individuals and businesses while updating the IRS’s technology and data analytics capabilities. The agency has seen long-term declines in staffing levels, funding levels and in the number of audits it performs. Democrats lauded the IRS plan as a way to level the economic playing field, which they see as tilted in favor of affluent Americans who can shirk their tax liability through loopholes and complexities built into the tax code. “The Inflation Reduction Act is a transformational investment in regaining taxpayers’ trust, modernizing the IRS to provide world-class customer service, and eliminating the two-tiered tax system that has allowed the wealthy and well-connected to play by one set of rules and everyone else by another. As laid out today, it’s already hard at work,” Rep. Richard Neal (Mass.), the top Democrat on the chief tax-writing Ways and Means Committee, said in a statement. Republicans have raged against the funding, saying that the increased tax enforcement will be directed against middle class Americans as opposed to the wealthy people and business owners the Biden administration says it’s targeting. Ways and Means Committee member Adrian Smith (R-Neb.), who put forward a proposal to rescind the $80 billion for the IRS at the beginning of this year when Republicans took control of the House, called the operating plan “too little, too late.”

Russia Says It Will Keep Notifying US of Missile Tests - Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov said Thursday that Russia will continue notifying the US of its missile tests despite its suspension of New START, the last nuclear arms control treaty remaining between Washington and Moscow. Earlierlast week, the US said it would stop sharing New START data with Russia since Moscow suspended its participation in the treaty. Ryabkov said Wednesday that Russia suspended information sharing under New START as well but clarified on Thursday that it will still notify the US of missile tests and adhere to the caps on nuclear weapon deployments set by the treaty.“On a voluntary basis, the Russian Federation will adhere to the central quantitative limits on strategic nuclear weapons set by the treaty and will also continue to abide by the 1988 agreement on mutual notifications on missile launches,” Ryabkov said, according to the Russian news agencyTASS.New START limits the number of nuclear warheads each side can have deployed at 1,550 and also puts caps on the deployment of intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs), and heavy bombers equipped for nuclear armaments. For now, both the US and Russia have said they intend to continue following the limitations on their nuclear deployments. Ryabkov and other Russian officials have previously said that the New START could be salvaged if the US takes steps to de-escalate tensions over Ukraine. But the Biden administration has shown no interest in doing so, and continues to ramp up support for Kyiv.

Another $2.6 Billion In Defense Aid To Ukraine - The Biden administration announced the next tranche of aid military aid for Ukraine on Tuesday, this time totaling $2.6 billion.An official White House press release stipulated that $2 billion of this would be for various types of munitions, radar and weapons to defend the country in the future, and just ahead of an expected spring offensive against Russian forces. According to a statement by Secretary of State Antony Blinken, this will include "U.S.-provided HIMARS, air defense interceptors, and artillery rounds that Ukraine is using to defend itself." For the sake of speed of getting these weapons and ammo to the warzone, the US said it will pull from existent military stockpiles."In addition, we are announcing a significant package of air defense capabilities, as well as artillery and tank ammunition, mortar systems, rockets, and anti-armor systems using $2.1 billion in Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative (USAI) funds," the statement said."The Presidential Drawdown is the thirty-fifth such drawdown of equipment from DoD inventories for Ukraine that the Biden Administration has authorized since August 2021."The announcement comes just on the heels of Russia's Wager Group claiming victory over Bakhmut's city center, raising the Russian flag over utterly demolished central administrative buildings. Below is the full list of what this latest defense package includes, according to the US Dept. of Defense: The capabilities in this package include:

• Additional munitions for Patriot air defense systems;
• Additional ammunition for High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS);
• 155mm and 105mm artillery rounds;
• 120mm mortar rounds;
• 120mm and 105mm tank ammunition;
• 25mm ammunition;
• Tube-Launched, Optically-Tracked, Wire-Guided (TOW) missiles;
• Approximately 400 grenade launchers and 200,000 rounds of ammunition;
• 11 tactical vehicles to recover equipment;
• 61 heavy fuel tankers;
• 10 trucks and 10 trailers to transport heavy equipment;
• Testing and diagnostic equipment to support vehicle maintenance and repair;
• Spare parts and other field equipment.

Milley says Ukraine victory over Russia unlikely this year - Gen. Mark Milley, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said in an interview that it is unlikely that Ukraine will score a decisive victory over Russia, even as Kyiv deploys increasingly powerful western weapons 14 months into the war. In an interview with Defense One published Friday, Milley said it will be a “very difficult military task” for Ukraine’s armed forces to push out tens of thousands of Russian soldiers from occupied areas of the country. “You’re looking at a couple hundred thousand Russians who are still in Russian-occupied Ukraine. I’m not saying it can’t be done. I’m just saying it’s a very difficult task,” Milley told the publication. “But that is their objective. They certainly have a right to that, that is their country. And they are on the moral high ground here.” “I don’t think it’s likely to be done in the near term for this year,” Milley said of a sweeping Ukrainian victory. Milley also discussed requests from Ukrainian officials for the U.S. to send ATACMS missiles, which have a range of 190 miles and could allow Kyiv to target the Black Sea Fleet headquarters on the Crimean peninsula. So far, the U.S. has declined those requests, saying it the weapons it has already provided are powerful enough, according to the New York Times. “Well, there’s a policy decision to date not to, so far,” Milley told Defense One. “And I would never predict anything on the table, off the table, for the future. But from a military standpoint, we have relatively few ATACMS, we do have to make sure that we maintain our own munitions inventories, as well.” Milley has also raised concerns over the depleting U.S. weapons stockpiles as factoring into the Biden administration’s decisions about arming Ukraine. He told the House Armed Services Committee last week that the U.S. “has a long ways to go” to beef up its munitions stockpiles and ensure the country is ready for any large-scale war, saying that the Russia-Ukraine war underscored the heavy use of military weapons in any war. “If there was a war on the Korean peninsula or great power war between the United States and Russia or the United States and China, the consumption rates would be off the charts,” Milley said last week.

Telegram Leak of US/NATO Document Paints Grim Picture of Condition of Ukraine’s Military - Yves Smith - In a bit of synchronicity, after pointing out that the Collective West was more free with information with respect to Ukraine than was ideal during a war, today we have the US government het up about an apparent leak. The New York Times reported that some US and NATO plans for building up the third Ukraine arm, in preparation for that much ballyhooed Ukraine counteroffensive, appeared on Telegram and Twitter.Administration and press responses effectively confirmed the authenticity of the documents, by saying the Pentagon was investigating and depicting the Administration as (amusingly? presumptuously?) trying to get Telegram to take them down. Team Biden didn’t seem to be doing any better with Twitter:The Grey Lady early on tried to discredit the notion that as many as 71,500 Ukraine forces had been killed versus 16,000 to 17,500 for Russia as Russian propaganda via document altering. Note that a few weeks ago, Colonel Douglas Macgregor’s Pentagon contacts put Ukraine deaths plus missing in action (as in in presumed dead) as over twice as high. By contrast, the supposedly “not credible/too low” Russia death count is consistent with the BBC’s estimates. On the reported deaths: Is Pentagon falsifying kill-ratio to gild Easter lilies in Kyiv? Recent leak https://nytimes.com/2023/04/06/us/politics/ukraine-war-plan-russia.html… of an apparently official NATO document shows 71,500 Ukrainians KIA and only 16,000 to 17,500 Russians, a far cry from earlier Pentagon 'estimates'. All sounds so Vietnam-déjà vu! As The Grayzone added: That [Ukraine KIA] figure is close to the 100,000 KIA’s cited by EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen in a November 2022 speech, before her comments were retracted. It also tracks closely with statements by one of Ukrainian President Vlodymyr Zelensky’s top advisers, Mykhailo Podolyak, who told the BBC in June of last year that Ukraine was losing between 100 and 200 soldiers per day (200 deaths per day over the course of 370 days between the launch of Russia’s military operation and the date of the documents would total 74,000.)Other American and EU state officials have offered dramatically different figures placing Russian KIA’s over the six figure mark. For instance, Norway’s defense chief has charted 100,000 Ukrainian soldiers dead to Russia’s 180,000, while Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Mark Miley asserted that Russian losses are “significantly well over 100,000.”The media and Twitterverse are focusing on the fact of the leak and the value of its information. The spin in the Times, so far being well amplified, is that the publication of this document is a first coup by supposedly backwards Russian intelligence. Huh?First, if Russia’s spy services had gotten their hands on these documents and then were so sloppy as allow it to get loose in social media, that would be a sign of a real internal lapse. You don’t burn good channels, with publicity would do. And Russia would be much better served not having the West know it had gotten some potentially juicy information. Second, former CIA analyst Larry Johnson parsed the distribution list. These reports were very widely circulated. From his post: Images of what appears to be the Daily written brief for the “Russia/Ukraine Joint Staff J3/J4/J5” popped up on the Donbass Devushka yesterday and has not created much of a stir. Donbass Devushka has four of the documents on line. They appear authentic. One is classified as “SECRET/REL TO FIN, UKR, FVEY, NATO” and is date 28 FEB 23. (You can see the documents for your self at this link.) One wonders, for instance, how many at each of the Five Eyes saw these reports. Anyone who got them is a potential leakers. The list of suspects is large.¹

Justice Dept. will investigate leak of classified Pentagon documents The Justice Department has opened an investigation into the leak of classified Pentagon documents appearing to detail Ukraine’s combat capabilities, its potential vulnerabilities and NATO’s broad efforts to help repel Russia’s invasion, the agency said Friday, as the U.S. government raced to determine how the material surfaced online and what value it may hold for the Kremlin. In a statement, the department said it was in communication with the Pentagon and had begun an investigation, but that it had no further comment. Confirmation of the investigation came as senior U.S. officials realized the scope of leaked material was much more expansive than initially thought. Earlier Friday, The Washington Post obtained dozens of what appeared to be photographs showing classified documents, dating to late February and early March, that range from worldwide intelligence briefings to tactical-level battlefield updates and assessments of Ukraine’s defense capabilities. They outline information about the Ukrainian and Russian militaries, and include highly sensitive U.S. analyses about China and other nations. The materials also reference highly classified sources and methods that the United States uses to collect such information, alarming U.S. national security officials who have seen them. A Pentagon spokeswoman, Sabrina Singh, said in a brief statement that the matter is under review, but she declined to address when officials first became aware of the leak, and how damaging the Biden administration considers the disclosure to be. The Pentagon has referred the matter to the Justice Department, she said. One U.S. defense official, who like others spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss the Pentagon’s preliminary understanding of the leak, said that many of the documents appear to have been prepared over the winter for Gen. Mark A. Milley, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, and other senior military officials, but that they were available to many other U.S. personnel and contract employees with the appropriate security clearances. It was unclear who may have posted the materials online, this person said, adding that hundreds — if not thousands — of people had access to them. The source of the leak, the official said, “could be anyone.”

NATO to Hold Its Largest-Ever Air Exercises in June -NATO is preparing to hold its largest-ever air exercises this June, known as Exercise Air Defender, that will involve 220 aircraft and 10,0000 personnel from 24 nations.The drills will include a massive deployment of aircraft from the US Air National Guard, which is tasked with defending the homeland but,according to Defense One, also maintains units for “prompt mobilization during war.” The exercises will mark the largest US air forces deployment to Europe for NATO drills since the alliance was founded in 1949. The purpose of the drills is to simulate what the US would have to do if the war in Ukraine spread into NATO territory. “This is now putting the alliance together quickly, with a credible force, to make sure that if Russia ever lines up on the NATO border, that we’re ready to go,” said Lt. Gen. Michael Loh, the head of the Air National Guard. “We’re going to defend every inch.”The drills will take place from June 12-23 and will stretch from Iceland to Romania, with most flights taking place over Germany and the North Sea. The massive show of force is a clear message to Russia and comes as the US and NATO are escalating support for their proxy war against Moscow in Ukraine.

Kevin McCarthy will meet Taiwan’s president with an eye on China - An expected meeting between Republican House Speaker Kevin McCarthy and Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen this week in California is a careful exercise in standing up to Beijing’s threats while holding back from triggering a war in the Pacific. For Tsai, a Los Angeles run-in with Washington’s most powerful California representative, is a convenient and strategic cover story to defend against provoking a particularly dangerous military response from China. Still, McCarthy is unlikely to use a California meeting in place of traveling to Taiwan personally. Earlier this month, the Speaker told reporters that meeting the Taiwanese president in America “has nothing to do with my travel, if I would go to Taiwan or not.” “China can’t tell me where or when to go, and none of that discussion ever happened. If the president happens to be in America, then I’m going to meet with her,” he said. McCarthy has entered the Speakership having established a reputation as a savvy electoral strategist; now he is moving to make his mark on foreign policy, with an eye on China. One of his first moves as Speaker was creating a House select committee on China, a panel that he said he tried to create with former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) in 2020 before Democrats backed out. It is viewed as one of Congress’s best opportunities to find bipartisan agreement, with Taiwan being a major focus. McCarthy said at the House GOP’s annual issues retreat earlier this month that it is of the upmost importance “that China does not think to go capture Taiwan,” and expressed concern about Chinese President Xi’s recent meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin.

McCarthy to Host Taiwan’s President on Wednesday, Risking a Chinese Response -House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) will host Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen in California on Wednesday, a meeting that risks provoking major Chinese military exercises around Taiwan.The Tsai-McCarthy meeting has been long-anticipated but wasn’t officially confirmed until McCarthy released the details on Monday. His office said he will host a bipartisan meeting with Tsai at the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library in California.China views high-level government contact between the US and Taiwan as an affront to the one-China policy. When then-House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) met with Tsai in Taipei in August 2022, Beijing launched its largest-ever military exercises around Taiwan.Taiwanese officials convinced McCarthy to meet Tsai in California rather than make the trip to Taiwan over fears of a Chinese escalation, but Beijing has signaled it might still respond to the meeting in the US in a big way.The Biden administration has said China should not overreact because there is a precedent for Taiwanese leaders stopping in the US. But by hosting Tsai, McCarthy will become the highest-level US official to ever meet with a Taiwanese president on US soil. Tsai stopped in New York on the way to Belize and Guatemala and will meet McCarthy in California on her way back to Taiwan.The South China Morning Post reported Monday that China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA) sent three warships to the East China Sea to conduct live-fire drills. Chinese analysts told Post that because the PLA command responsible for the Taiwan Strait directed the drills, it was meant as a response to Tsai’s travel through the US. They said the exercises indicated China will take “strong” countermeasures when Tsai meets with McCarthy.

House Speaker McCarthy Meets Taiwan’s Tsai in California -House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) met with Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen in California on Wednesday, marking the highest level meeting between US and Taiwanese officials since the previous House speaker, Nancy Pelosi, visited Taipei in August 2022.The meeting is historic and risks provoking a major Chinese response as it makes McCarthy the highest-level US official to host a Taiwanese leader on US soil since Washington severed diplomatic relations with Taipei in 1979 to open up with Beijing.China has warned strongly against the plans and launched a naval patrol in the Taiwan Strait ahead of the meeting. At this point, it’s not clear how far China’s military response will go. When Pelosi made the trip to Taiwan, Beijing launched its largest-ever military exercises around Taiwan, which included a simulated blockade and the firing of missiles over the island.According to The South China Morning Post, the McCarthy-Tsai meeting at the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library in Simi Valley was attended by a bipartisan group of 15 other members of Congress. Ahead of the meeting,China’s embassy in the US was contacting US lawmakers to express its “deep concern and firm opposition” to the gathering. Li Xiang, a representative from the Chinese embassy, said in an email that China will not “sit idly by in the face of a blatant provocation and will most likely take necessary and resolute actions in response.”

Chinese Spy Balloon Gained Intel On US Military Sites, Transmitted To Beijing In Real Time - US officials say the verdict is finally in after the government probe into the Chinese spy balloon shot down off the coast of South Carolina on Feb. 4. While Beijing has long insisted it was a benign unmanned civilian airship that accidentally strayed off course, during which time it was observed over sensitive American military installations, a Monday NBC report says it was able to obtain intelligence. "The Chinese spy balloon that flew across the U.S. was able to gather intelligence from several sensitive American military sites, despite the Biden administration’s efforts to block it from doing so, according to two current senior U.S. officials and one former senior administration official," the NBC report begins. One key question has been whether the balloon's collection technology was capable of transmitting information back to the Chinese government in real time. There was much speculation at the time that the Chinese would have to physically recover the device in order to access whatever data it may have picked up. But US officials now say that Beijing did receive information in real time. "China was able to control the balloon so it could make multiple passes over some of the sites (at times flying figure eight formations) and transmit the information it collected back to Beijing in real time, the three officials said," the report underscores. "The intelligence China collected was mostly from electronic signals, which can be picked up from weapons systems or include communications from base personnel, rather than images, the officials said." Another interesting aspect which US investigators say they've uncovered following much of the balloon debris' retrieval from the ocean in the aftermath of the shootdown is that it had a self-destruct mechanism. Officials say it "could have been activated remotely by China," but also explained that "it’s not clear if that didn’t happen because the mechanism malfunctioned or because China decided not to trigger it."

Blinken Can’t Reschedule His Trip to China After Canceling - Secretary of State Antony Blinken is looking to reschedule his trip to China that he canceled over the Chinese balloon that wound up floating over the US, but Beijing is rebuffing the effort, POLITICO reported Wednesday. The POLITICO report said China has effectively frozen high-level contacts with US officials. An unnamed US official said that the Biden administration is also trying to schedule a call between President Biden and President Xi Jinping and send other high-level officials to China but isn’t having any luck.Before the balloon incident, the US and China were making a point to engage at a high level despite soaring tensions. But since Blinken canceled his trip, and the US shot down the balloon, which ended up over US territory due to unexpected weather, the progress on engagement with Beijing has been reversed.After the US shot down the balloon in February, Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin tried to contact his Chinese counterpart, Wei Fenghe, who has since been replaced. But China declined to take Austin’s call, and he hasn’t had any luck since then. Tensions between the US and China soared even higher on Wednesday as House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) hosted Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen in California. China repeatedly warned McCarthy and Tsai not to hold the meeting and is expected to respond with more military drills around Taiwan.

China Considers Prohibiting Exports Of Rare Earth Magnet Technology To The U.S. --If China thought the trade war with Trump was bad, little did they know how much worse it would get under Joe "Big Guy" Biden.As Rabobank's Michael Every wrote this morning, "don’t forget President Biden is already running a US trade policy far more protectionist than his predecessor’s" and the latest example of that came this morning when Japan decided to join United States and the Netherlands in restricting exports of chipmaking gear to China, as the cold chip war between China and the west enters an exciting new phase. Of course, Beijing wasn't going to just sit there and do nothing as the US piled sanction upon sanction in hopes of sending China back into the stone age, and many expected that China would retaliate by squeezing the west where it had the most leverage, namely by limiting exports of another key tech supply-chain product: rare earth metals, and where China is the world's dominant producer. Well, it appears they were right because as the Nikkei reports, China is considering "prohibiting exports of certain rare-earth magnet technology in a move that would counter the U.S.'s advantage in the high-tech arena." To do this, officials will file amendments to a technology export restriction list, which was last updated in 2020. In total, there are 43 amendments or additions in the draft list first announced in December by the commerce and technology ministries. Officials have finished taking public comments from experts, and the changes are expected to go into force this year. The revisions would "either ban or restrict exports of technology to process and refine rare-earth elements. There are also proposed provisions that would prohibit or limit exports of alloy tech for making high-performance magnets derived from rare earths."As regular readers know, high performance magnets are used in a wide range of applications, such as motors for electric vehicles and various high-tech military devices.The last time China suspended exports of rare earths, was in 2010 when it halted shipments to Japan following tensions surrounding the Japan-administered Senkaku Islands, which Beijing claims and calls the Diaoyu. Japan specializes in making high-performance magnets from rare earths while the U.S. produces products that use the magnets. That episode led to a heightened sense of alarm in Japan and the U.S. on the economic security front.Since then, Washington has moved to forge a rare-earth supply chain on U.S. soil. And while China's share of all rare earths produced globally dropped to roughly 70% last year from about 90% a decade earlier, according to the U.S. Geological Survey, China still remains the dominant producer of rare earths. Furthermore, China still holds a tight grip on processing rare earths. Ironically, most rare earths extracted in the U.S. go to China for refining before being shipped back to the U.S. Good luck with that going forward. The Chinese government, meanwhile, is looking to turn the country into a high-tech manufacturing superpower that can compete with the U.S. Because China is behind when it comes to advanced semiconductors, "they're likely going to use rare earths as a bargaining chip since rare earths are a weak point for Japan and the U.S." said a source in the resources industry.

North Korea warns US, South Korea military drills escalate tension to ‘brink of a nuclear war’ -North Korea on Thursday warned the United States and South Korea that their continued joint military exercises threaten security on the peninsula and could push tensions to the “brink of a nuclear war.” Choe Ju Hyon, an international security analyst, said in a report in the North Korean state-run news outlet KCNA that “reckless military confrontational hysteria” from the U.S. and its allies is leading the region to “irreversible catastrophe.” “The U.S. kicked off different largest-ever joint military drills against the [Democratic People’s Republic of Korea] simultaneously despite the latter’s repeated grave warnings, pushing the security situation of the Korean peninsula to the brink of a nuclear war,” the article states. The warning comes after the U.S. and South Korea held their largest joint military drills in the Korean peninsula in five years last month, engaging in simulations and live demonstrations in the air and sea and on land. North Korea responded by firing at least one missile from a submarine in the Sea of Japan. U.S. and South Korean officials have said the military drills are defensive in nature, meant to plan for any possible invasion from the North, but North Korea has said they threaten the country’s security. The article states that the U.S. and its allies are responsible for pushing the situation to “an extremely critical phase.” It said the number of U.S. troops in the area is enough to launch an “all-out” war and praised North Korea for “war deterrence,” saying it shows the country’s responsibility for and confidence in its “crucial mission.”

Marco Rubio Accidentally Makes A Great Argument Against US Dollar Hegemony – Caitlin Johnstone - Some empire managers are so brash about wanting to rule the world that they’ll occasionally voice their position so directly it sounds like an anti-imperialist said it.We saw just such an instance last Wednesday during a conversation between empire propagandist Sean Hannity and warmongering senator Marco Rubio on Fox News. So frenzied was Rubio in his vitriol about the rise of China on the world stage that he accidentally wound up providing a very good argument against the hegemony of the US dollar.Rubio began with a rant about how the US is in a “conflict” with China in response to a question from Hannity about whether Xi Jinping is preparing for war with America.“The bottom line is we’re in a conflict, and I think we have to start talking about it that way,” Rubiosaid. “I was very young, obviously, at the end of the Cold War, but it’s been about 30 years since there was another superpower on the earth that was in conflict with the United States. We are back in that place. We need to stop pretending like that’s not the case now.”Hannity repeated the soundbyte he’s been pushing for the last few weeks saying that China, Russia and Iran are a “new Axis of Evil,” then Rubio made a very revealing comment about a recent deal that was struck between China and Brazil.“Just today, Brazil, the largest country in the Western Hemisphere, cut a trade deal with China,” said Rubio. “They’re going to, from now on, do trade in their own currencies, get right around the dollar. They’re creating a secondary economy in the world totally independent of the United States. We won’t have to talk about sanctions in five years, because there’ll be so many countries transacting in currencies other than the dollar that we won’t have the ability to sanction them.”Rubio is not the first US imperialist we’ve seen expressing concern about the US dollar losing its position as the dominant currency of the world, not just with regard to China and Brazil but betweenChina and Russia, between China and Saudi Arabia, between China and India, and between India and Russia.“The dollar is America’s superpower,” Fareed Zakaria writes for The Washington Post. “It gives Washington unrivaled economic and political muscle. The United States can slap sanctions on countries unilaterally, freezing them out of large parts of the world economy. And when Washington spends freely, it can be certain that its debt, usually in the form of T-bills, will be bought up by the rest of the world.”The other day Pentagon insider and DC swamp monster Elbridge Colby spotlighted a concern on Twitter that the US might not be able to finance a war with China if the US dollar loses its status as the world’s reserve currency.The US has engaged in a tremendous amount of manipulation to secure the dollar’s position as the global reserve currency and all the power that comes with it, and has used it to fund a war machine of unprecedented might and to inflict starvation sanctions on disobedient nations around the world. It is a weapon, and US imperialists are bemoaning the looming loss of that weapon because they want to use it on many more people for the advancement of the interests of the empire.

Opinion | Saudis send a message to the U.S. with oil production cut – Ignatius, The Washington Post --Saudi Arabia’s coldly pragmatic decision this past weekend to cut oil production and raise prices sent a simple message: The United States doesn’t call the shots in the Persian Gulf or the oil market anymore. For better or worse, the era of American hegemony in the Middle East is over.Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman pressed OPEC producers on Sunday to reduce production by about 1 million barrels a day, which boosted the price of crude oil by more than 6 percent to about $85 a barrel. For a Biden administration struggling to contain inflation and avoid recession, the Saudi-led price increase was as welcome as a poke in the eye.Saudi Arabia is hedging its bets, and so is the United States. Neither country wants a break in relations, but leaders in both capitals feel disrespected. It’s not an easy or stable balance — especially for Israel, which wants better relations with Riyadh but depends absolutely on the reliability of U.S. power in the region.But life goes on, even for a jilted superpower. The Biden administration’s “back channel” — CIA Director William J. Burns — visited the kingdom this week. He “discussed shared interests” with top Saudi officials and “reinforced our commitment to intelligence cooperation, especially in areas such as counterterrorism,” a U.S. official told me.It is tempting to see the oil-production move by MBS, as the Saudi crown prince is known, as a pre-arraignment endorsement of former presidentDonald Trump. Certainly, he prefers Republicans, but he has been hedging his bets in the GOP, too. In February, MBS hosted Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (Ky.) and a group of top GOP senators that included James E. Risch of Idaho and Tom Cotton of Arkansas. This week, the Saudis staged a lavish event in Miami hosted by Republican Mayor Francis X. Suarez, an ally of Gov. Ron DeSantis, a Trump rival.MBS is still loyal, in his way, to the former president who boasted to Bob Woodward, “I saved his ass” after the 2018 murder of Post contributing columnist Jamal Khashoggi. MBS’s sovereign wealth fund has financed the LIV Golf tour that has showcased Trump’s resorts and has put more than $2 billion in an investment firm run by Jared Kushner, Trump’s son-in-law and former senior adviser.But I’m guessing that, for MBS, Chinese President Xi Jinping is the new Trump — the big guy who indulges the Saudi leader’s ambitions as a regional powerhouse. When Xi visited Saudi Arabia in December, MBS organized a Gulf summit at which other countries joined in pledging cooperation on economic, energy and security issues. MBS has told Saudi confidants that the United States remains the kingdom’s partner, but not its only partner. I am told that the crown prince explained to these insiders that while his predecessors would immediately grant U.S. requests, “I broke that because I want things in return.”

OPEC: Saudis aren’t afraid of US anymore - The shock oil production cuts from May outlined by the OPEC+ on Sunday essentially means that eight key OPEC countries decided to join hands with Russia to reduce oil production, messaging that OPEC and OPEC+ are now back in control of the oil market. No single oil producing country is acting as the Pied Piper here. The great beauty about it is that Saudi Arabia and seven other major OPEC countries have unexpectedly decided to support Russia’s efforts and unilaterally reduce production. While the 8 OPEC countries are talking about a reduction of one million b/d from May to the end of the year, Russia will extend for the same period its voluntary adjustment that already started in March, by 500,000 barrels. Now, add to this the production adjustments already decided by the OPEC+ previously, and the total additional voluntary production adjustments touch a whopping 1.6 million b/d. What has led to this? Fundamentally, as many analysts had forewarned, the Western sanctions against Russian oil created distortions and anomalies in the oil market and upset the delicate ecosystem of supply and demand, which were compounded by the incredibly risky decision by the G7, at the behest of the US Treasury, to impose a price cap on Russia’s oil sales abroad. On top of it, the Biden administration’s provocative moves to release oil regularly from the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve in attempts to micromanage the oil prices and keep them abnormally low in the interests of the American consumer as well as to keep the inflationary pressures under check turned out to be an affront to the oil-producing countries whose economies critically depend on income from oil exports. The OPEC+ calls the production cuts “a precautionary measure aimed at supporting the stability of the oil market.” In the downstream of the OPEC+ decision, analysts expect the oil prices to rise in the short term and pressure on Western central banks to increase due to the possible spike in inflation. What stands out in the OPEC+ decision is that Russia’s decision to reduce oil production by the end of the year has been unanimously supported by the main Arab producers. Independent but time-coordinated statements were made by Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Kuwait, Iraq, Algeria, Oman and Kazakhstan, while Russia confirmed its intention to extend until the end of the year its own production reduction by 500,000 barrels per day, which began in March.

U.S. Losing Influence As Saudi Arabia Joins Shanghai Cooperation Organization - Saudi Arabia’s very public announcement last week that its cabinet had approved a plan to join the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) as a ‘dialogue partner’ is the surest sign yet that any U.S. efforts to keep it out of the China-Russia sphere of influence may now be futile. The Kingdom had already signed a memorandum of understanding on 16 September 2022 granting it the status of SCO dialogue partner, as was exclusively reported by OilPrice.com at the time. However, Saudi Arabia did nothing to encourage the release of the news at that point, unlike now – just after it resumed relations with Iran, in a deal brokered by China. The SCO is the world’s biggest regional political, economic and defence organisation both in terms of geographic scope and population. It covers 60 percent of the Eurasian continent (by far the biggest single landmass on Earth), 40 percent of the world’s population, and more than 20 percent of global GDP. It was formed in 2001 on the foundation of the ‘Shanghai Five’ that was set up in 1996 by China, Russia, and three states of the former USSR (Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan). Aside from its vast scale and scope, the SCO believes in the idea and practice of the ‘multi-polar world’, which China anticipates will be dominated by it by 2030. In this context, the end of December 2021/beginning of January 2022 saw meetings in Beijing between senior officials from the Chinese government and foreign ministers from Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Oman, Bahrain, plus the secretary-general of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC). At these meetings, the principal topics of conversation were to finally seal a China-GCC Free Trade Agreement and to forge “a deeper strategic cooperation in a region where U.S. dominance is showing signs of retreat”.This idea was the centrepiece of the declaration signed in 1997 between then-Russian President, Boris Yeltsin, and his then-China counterpart, Jiang Zemin. Veteran Russian Foreign Minister, Sergey Lavrov, has since stated that: “The Shanghai Cooperation Organisation is working to establish a rational and just world order and […] it provides us with a unique opportunity to take part in the process of forming a fundamentally new model of geopolitical integration”. Aside from these geopolitical redesigns, the SCO works to provide intra-organisation financing and banking networks, plus increased military cooperation, intelligence sharing and counterterrorism activities, among other things. The U.S. itself applied for ‘observer status’ of the SCO in the early 2000s but was rejected in 2005. This latest step by Saudi Arabia away from the U.S. and towards the China-Russia axis should come as no surprise to anyone who has been watching developments in the Kingdom since the rise of Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MbS) from around 2015. At that point, he was not Crown Prince (the heir designate position) – that role was held by Muhammad bin Nayef (MbN) – but rather Deputy Crown Prince with burning ambition to take the number one succession spot upon the death of King Salman. His stint as Defense Minister was disastrous, with the dramatic escalation of the war against the Houthis in Yemen – including indiscriminate bombing of civilian targets – roundly condemned by the West. This led the German intelligence service, the Bundesnachrichtendienst (BND), to leak an abridged internal-only assessment report of MbS to various trusted members of the press that stated: ‘Saudi Arabia [under MbS] has adopted an impulsive policy of intervention.’ It went on to describe MbS in terms of being a political gambler who was destabilising the Arab world through proxy wars in Yemen and Syria. In order to rebuild his reputation with a view to usurping MbN as Crown Prince, MbS came up with an idea that he thought would win over senior Saudis who supported his rival. MbS pitched the idea to the senior Saudis based on very specific benchmark targets. First, the flotation would be for 5% of the company. Second, this would raise at least USD100 billion, which would value the whole company at US$2 trillion. Third, it would be listed not just on the domestic Tadawul stock market but also on at least one of the world’s biggest and most prestigious stock markets – the New York Stock Exchange and the London Stock Exchange were the exchanges MbS had in mind. None of these targets was hit, of course, as the more information was made known about Saudi Aramco to international investors the more they regarded it as an omni-toxic liability, including financially and politically. At that point, China stepped in with an offer to save MbS’s face, an offer that he has apparently never forgotten. The offer was that China would buy the entire 5% stake for the required US$100 million, and it would be done in a private placement, meaning no possibly embarrassing details about anything surrounding the deal would ever be made public, including to those senior Saudis who opposed MbS.

Biden Has Limited Options to Respond to OPEC+’s Oil Cut - OPEC+’s surprise move to cut 1 million barrels a day of oil production is poised to raise US fuel prices just as President Joe Biden is expected to launch his re-election campaign. He has a limited range of options with which to respond. Biden may go for another release of oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. The emergency stockpile was created in the 1970s after the Arab oil embargo. It’s holding about 371 million of barrels, according to Energy Department data, around half the SPR’s capacity, largely due to a historic release of 180 million barrels last year to tame surging gasoline prices in the wake of the war in Ukraine. The administration has made refilling the SPR a priority, but it has been hampered by factors that include maintenance at two of the reserve’s four sites. Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm has said the government isn’t able to release oil from the cache and refill it at the same time, so an emergency sale would likely further delay any plans for replenishment. Still, there’s nothing to stop another sale, said Kevin Book, managing director of ClearView Energy Partners, a Washington consulting firm. “President Biden has taken ownership of gasoline prices in ways other president’s before him have not,” Book said. “If he continues that, it creates possibility for more interventions.” Don’t be surprised if there are more political attacks on the US energy sector, which has ignored repeated pleas from Biden over the past year to accelerate production increases, and received tongue-lashings for making record profits. For all the rhetoric, domestic oil output continues to grow slowly, with the industry reluctant to ramp up drilling and risk a repeat of previous boom-and-bust cycles. “Since the US can’t really force the hand of the OPEC+ members, the proverbial ‘whipping person’ will be the domestic oil and gas industry,” said Timm Schneider, an analyst who runs The Schneider Capital Group LLC. The White House hinted last year, in response to OPEC+’s unexpected decision to cut production by 2 million barrels a day, that it could back legislation that would allow the US to take the dramatic step of suing OPEC nations. Ultimately, the administration backed off from supporting the bill — the “No Oil Producing and Exporting Cartels Act,” or “NOPEC” — amid warnings of the effects it could have on diplomatic relations and the defense industry. Other levers the Biden administration has at its disposal include limiting the export of gasoline and diesel. The White House considered that option last year as a potential means to tame pump prices, which reached an all-time high in June, but it never pulled the trigger. Analysts said moving ahead with the curbs could backfire and actually lead to higher prices in some parts of the US.

World Court Rules US Illegally Froze Some Iranian Assets - The UN’s top court on Thursday ruled that the US violated international lawby freezing assets owned by Iranian companies.The International Court of Justice (ICJ) ordered Washington to pay compensation to Tehran, but the amount has yet to be determined, and the court has no way of enforcing its rulings.Iran brought the case to the ICJ, seeking to unlock $1.75 billion in frozen central bank funds. However, the court ruled the central bank funds were outside of its jurisdiction.Iran’s Foreign Ministry said in a statement that the verdict “shows once again the legitimacy” of Iran’s positions and the “illegal behavior of the United States.” But since the court said it did not have jurisdiction over the frozen funds, the US also took the ruling as a victory.“This is a major victory for the United States and victims of Iran’s state-sponsored terrorism,” said Rich Visek, the acting legal advisor of the State Department. He said the “vast majority of Iran’s case” was related to the frozen central bank funds.Iran brought the case to the ICJ in 2016 and said by freezing assets to compensate victims of terror attacks Washington claims were linked to Tehran, the US violated a 1955 treaty of friendship, known as the Treaty of Amity, that was signed following the 1953 CIA-backed coup in Iran.The Trump administration withdrew from the Treaty of Amity in 2018, but the court said the US still violated the agreement because it was a party to the treaty when the funds were frozen. “The court has concluded the United States violated its obligations under … the treaty of amity,” an ICJ judge said. The court ruled the central bank funds were outside of its jurisdiction because only commercial enterprises were protected by the treaty.

US concerned by violence in Jerusalem; condemns rockets from Lebanon -The United States on Thursday said it was concerned about Israeli police attacks on a mosque and holy site in Jerusalem this week, while condemning rocket attacks from Lebanon in apparent response to the raids. The attacks come during the Muslim holy month of Ramadan and the Jewish holiday of Passover. “We are concerned by the scenes we see coming out of Jerusalem,” State Department spokesman Vedant Patel said Thursday. “It is our viewpoint that it is absolutely vital that the sanctity of holy sites be preserved.” Wednesday night marked the second consecutive night of violence at the al-Aqsa Mosque, the third-holiest place in Islam. It is located within the Temple Mount holy site in Jerusalem’s Old City and also holds religious importance in Judaism. Israeli police forces raided the mosque and injured at least a half dozen people, according to the Palestine Red Crescent Society, a humanitarian organization. The police claim that “dozens of law-breaking juveniles” threw rocks and other objects at officers, prompting the violence. Patel did not directly denounce the Israeli action, which Palestinians have called unprovoked, but did call for peace. “We emphasize the importance of upholding the historic status quo at the holy sites in Jerusalem, and any unilateral action that jeopardizes that status quo, to us, is unacceptable,” Patel said. “We call for restraint, coordination and calm during the holiday season.” About 30 rockets were fired on Thursday at northern Israel from Lebanon, which Israel alleges were from Hamas and in response to the mosque attacks. Israeli leaders have vowed to retaliate. “We condemn the launch of rockets from Lebanon and Gaza at Israel,” Patel said. “Our commitment to Israel’s security is ironclad and we recognize Israel’s legitimate right to defend itself against all forms of aggression.”

Kamala Harris Serves up Crumbs in Africa as US Continues to Offer Little in Comparison to China - US Vice President Kamala Harris was in Africa last week visiting Ghana, Tanzania, and Zambia. She’s the fifth member of the Biden administration to visit Africa this year following in the footsteps of UN Ambassador Linda Thomas-Greenfield, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, first lady Jill Biden, and Secretary of State Antony Blinken. Biden himself also plans to visit sometime later this year.During her trip she talked about the US wanting to boost African youth, the US helping Africa prepare for climate change, women’s empowerment, and about race. But the underlying motivation for the renewed push in Africa is the sudden awareness that China dominates the critical mineral trade on the continent.These minerals – everything from copper and cobalt to rare earths and coltan – are crucial to the US plan to become the world’s cleantech superpower. The problem is that China, for all intents and purposes, already is.The RAND Corporation explains just how much ground the US needs to make up:Starting up a new mine and processing facility can cost up to $1 billion and take more than a decade. Scientists have developed more environmentally friendly ways to separate and process rare earths, but there will still be impacts that need to be addressed. And while China has entire labs devoted to rare earth mining and processing, the U.S. now has only a handful of scientists who truly focus on rare earths.Processing rare earths and other critical materials—not just digging them out of the ground—is the real bottleneck. If every proposed processing plant outside of China were to somehow come online by 2025, researchers found, they could produce around 134,000 tons of usable rare earth material every year. Projected demand by 2025, outside of China: 140,000 tons and growing fast.Additionally, a recent BloombergNEF study estimated that half of global spending on low carbon energy technology is happening in China, totaling more than the combined efforts of the EU and US. While a Politico report on Harris’ trip blames Trump for China’s overwhelming presence in Africa, the fact is US companies have been selling off interests there to the Chinese for the better part of twenty years.Ken Opalo writes at An Africanist Perspective about how the US cannot compete with China economically in Africa:The fact of the matter is that if you want to do anything serious in the region within a tight political business cycle and need financing, calling Beijing is typically the smart option. This is especially true if you happen to be an incumbent in a competitive electoral democracy like Kenya or Zambia (I hope Washington sees the irony here). According to Nikkei Asia, China has invested 2.5 times more in African infrastructure development than all Western countries combined. The same dynamics obtain in the private sector. Whether you are looking for machinery or cheap imports (and increasingly markets), China is often the best option. Trends in trade volumes demonstrate this fact (see below). In 2022 Africa-US trade (under $40b) was less than a fifth of Africa-China volumes.From an African perspective, this is not optimal. Whilst the rise of China has had an unambiguous net positive effect on African economies, it is also true that, if managed well, real competition between the US and China would incentivize faster improvements in the quality of African countries’ bilateral commercial relations with either power.

For The Record, NPR Absolutely Is US State Propaganda – Caitlin Johnstone - American liberals are in an uproar over Twitter’s recent labeling of National Public Radio as “US state-affiliated media”, a designation typically reserved for state media from governments the US is trying to topple like Russia’s RT, China’s CGTN, and Iran’s Press TV.In an article titled “Twitter labels NPR’s account as ‘state-affiliated media,’ which is untrue,” NPR’s Bill Chappell attempts to argue that his outlet does not deserve to have the same labels affixed to it as state media from naughty governments like Russia and China:“Noting the millions of listeners who support and rely upon NPR for ‘independent, fact-based journalism,’ NPR CEO John Lansing stated, ‘NPR stands for freedom of speech and holding the powerful accountable. It is unacceptable for Twitter to label us this way. A vigorous, vibrant free press is essential to the health of our democracy.'” It is an interesting choice to spotlight NPR’s CEO John Lansing while trying to argue that NPR is not state-affiliated, given that Lansing spent his pre-NPR years as the CEO of the US Agency for Global Media (USAGM). USAGM is the US government narrative management umbrella which runs overt US state propaganda outlets like Radio Free Asia, Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, and Voice of America. In a 1977 article titled “Worldwide Propaganda Network Built by the C.I.A.,” The New York Times explicitly names Radio Liberty, Radio Free Europe, and Radio Free Asia as part of the network constructed by the Central Intelligence Agency to circulate propaganda. As Fair.org’s Bryce Greenerecently noted, USAGM received $810 million in US federal funding in 2022, which is more than twice the amount RT received from Russia for its global operations in 2021. Lansing’s history is not an anomaly; NPR is regularly overseen by executives who came directly from senior positions in Washington’s official propaganda network. From 1998 to 2008 NPR’s president was a man named Kevin Klose, who previously ran Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty and then returned to that job after his decade-long NPR stint. A man named Ken Stern became NPR’s executive vice president in 1999 and was appointed CEO in 2006; prior to that he was the senior advisor to the director of the USAGM’s International Broadcasting Bureau. So it is a bit funny that John Lansing is now cited complaining about NPR being labeled “state-affiliated media” on Twitter, given that he has devoted his life to promulgating US state-affiliated media. NPR receives funding from the US government, consistently advances the information interests of the US government, and is routinely run by professional propagandists of the US government. You could spend hours of your life just reading through Fair.org’s “NPR” section to see the many, many ways that platform has exhibited wild biases to grease the wheels of the US empire. If NPR is not state-affiliated media, then nobody is.

Congress goes wobbly on TikTok - Only days after TikTok’s CEO endured a bipartisan flogging on Capitol Hill, a Senate bill meant to rein in the company — released with much bipartisan fanfare and a bevy of endorsements earlier this month — is starting to look shakier.The bill, known as the RESTRICT Act, would give the Commerce Department and White House sweeping new powers to ban or restrict a wide range of communications and technology products coming from China. The bill would deprive TikTok of a crucial legal defense that it used to defeat the Trump administration’s attempted ban in 2020, and is considered key to any meaningful effort by the Biden administration to ban the Chinese-owned app.Until this week, the legislation appeared to be sailing ahead. Its chief sponsors, Sens. Mark Warner (D-Va.) and John Thune (R-S.D.), had convinced more than 20 of their colleagues to sign onto the bill. And with the White House already on board and talks with House leadership allegedly underway, a quick trip to the president’s desk wasn’t out of the question.But key senators are now suggesting they’re ambivalent about RESTRICT. A right-wing backlash to the legislation is building. And top Republicans in the House are claiming the Senate bill goes too easy on TikTok — and are spreading misinformation about it in the process.Speaking with reporters Wednesday, Thune said he expected the RESTRICT Act “could move very quickly” as long as it gets a prompt markup. “If we can get a markup in the Senate Commerce Committee, I think we can probably get it across the floor in the Senate,” he said.But Senate Commerce Chair Maria Cantwell (D-Wash.), who has yet to officially endorse the bill, appears to be in no hurry. And after telling reporters earlier this month that she thought the RESTRICT Act was “a good idea,” on Thursday she appeared to backpedal slightly.“I said it’s a start, saying that the Commerce secretary might play a larger role,” Cantwell said. The senator said she didn’t yet know if the breadth of the bill’s restrictions on Chinese and other foreign tech were cause for concern, and that her attention is for now focused on other topics.“My primary concern is we need a data privacy bill,” Cantwell said.

Using Tik-Tok as a Trojan Horse, the RESTRICT Act Would Create an Internet Censorship Star Chamber - Yves Smith - You know it’s bad when Rand Paul has emerged as seemingly the only vocal supporter of the First Amendment in Congress, at least when the topic is Tik-Tok. But a bipartisan bill, the RESTRICT Act, intended to shut down Tik-Tok and other designated agents of unfriendly furriners scheming to pollute American’s precious bodily fluids, is such a censorship power grab that a large number of right-wing figures (and sadly only a few from the left) are screaming bloody murder about it. And their fury is well warranted. The bill, which has also been dubbed “Patriot Act 2.0” is a horror show.The good news is that for once, vocal opposition is having an effect and the effort to push the legislation through is going pear-shaped. However, like the TARP, which elicited a firestorm of criticism, the RESTRICT Act may come back in a marginally less offensive rework. However, some other anti-Tik-Tok bills have also been put forward, so perhaps one of them will become the new China foiler.However, the RESTRICT Act (which you can read here) is still in play, so let’s look at some of the major elements of its awfulness. It does not mention Tik-Tok. The bill instead targets “any foreign government or regime, determined…to have engaged in a long-term pattern or serious instances of conduct significantly adverse to the national security of the United States.” The starter list consists of China, Cuba, Iran, North Korea, Russia, and Venezuela “under the regime of Nicolás Maduro Moros.” So we still haven’t given up on Guaidó.So many US officials and adjacent mouthpieces have taken to saying crazypants things about China that it’s hard to parse posturing from policy. Nevertheless, even though the US has become openly hostile towards China, witness the CHIPS Act and continued Taiwan eye-poking, I wonder if any other bill or Executive Order has deemed China to be a national security threat to the US. Forgive the reliance on conservative sources, but they’ve been the ones to give the Restrict Act a hard look. First from Fox:Activists and organizations are sounding the alarm that the RESTRICT Act, touted to stop foreign spying via apps like TikTok, will instead endanger basic American freedoms.A bipartisan group of senators led by Sen. Mark Warner, D-Va., and John Thune, R-S.D., unveiled the RESTRICT Act on March 7. The legislation is meant to crack down on communications technology developed by foreign adversaries, like China and Russia, because of national security risks.The RESTRICT Act gives the executive branch the power to “[enforce] any mitigation measure to address any risk” regarding a “current, past, or potential future transaction” with what is deemed to be a foreign adversary. It would also apply to taking action “to address any risk arising from any covered transaction by any person, or with respect to any property, subject to the jurisdiction of the United States,” including “interfering in, or altering the result or reported result of a Federal election.” The penalty for running afoul of this law could be up to “20 years” spent in prison.Oh, and let’s not forget that the RESTRICT Act provides for civil and criminal asset forfeiture, which means the police can take your money and property based on a mere accusation, before guilt or innocence has been determined.The bill has sloppy definitions and is unnecessarily convoluted, which speaks either to poor drafting or an intent to obfuscate. Based on a cursory look, for any entity to be targeted, it has to have over 1 million active US users in the past.But the text of the bill proper targets “any person”:…shall take action to identify, deter, disrupt, prevent, prohibit, investigate, or otherwise mitigate, including by negotiating, entering into, or imposing, and enforcing any mitigation measure to address any risk arising from any covered transaction by any person….A transaction appears to be just about any activity.

Biden vetoes congressional bid to undo his water regulations - President Biden on Thursday vetoed an attempt by Congress to undo waterway pollution regulations put forward by his administration — marking the second veto of his presidency and effectively killing the attempt to nullify the water rule. Majorities of both chambers of Congress had voted to nix the Biden rules, which defined which waters are subject to federal protections. The White House had previously announced that Biden would veto the congressional measure, which is unlikely to be able to get the two-thirds majority needed to override the veto. In a statement on the veto, Biden said that the water regulation “provides clear rules of the road that will help advance infrastructure projects, economic investments, and agricultural activities — all while protecting water quality and public health.” He added that without it, there would be greater uncertainty, which would “threaten economic growth.” Waters that receive federal protections require permits in order for industry to carry out activities that may pollute the waters like construction or mining. Right-wing opponents of the Biden administration’s rule say it is too broad and offers protection to waters that may not need them at the expense of industry. “By vetoing this Congressional Review Act resolution of disapproval, President Biden is ignoring the will of a bipartisan majority in Congress, leaving millions of Americans in limbo, and crippling future energy and infrastructure projects with red tape,” Sen. Shelley Moore Capito (R-W.Va.) said in a statement. “There’s a reason those who work in agriculture, building, mining, and small businesses of all kinds across America strongly supported our effort to block the Biden waters rule, and I’m disappointed the president chose to stand by his blatant executive overreach,” Capito added. However, the vote to get rid of the rule did receive some bipartisan support in both the Senate and the House.. In the Senate, four Democrats and Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (I-Ariz.), who caucuses with Democrats, voted to get rid of it; as did nine Democrats in the House. Nevertheless, which waters to protect has gone back and forth depending on which party is in the White House, with former President Trump significantly reducing which waters were protected compared to rules under the Obama administration.

US Congress faces transmission-for-gas choice as permitting efforts advance -- Talks are moving ahead in Congress on a broad energy permitting package after the Republican-majority US House of Representatives passed its starting proposal March 30. Democrats, who control the Senate, want more aggressive measures to speed construction of transmission lines. They have also balked at provisions of the House bill that would roll back major Inflation Reduction Act climate programs and lower barriers to oil and gas pipelines and other fossil fuel infrastructure. But speeding oil and gas projects is a major priority for Republicans, and a divided Congress will likely force trade-offs. Although many Democrats are uneasy about supporting fossil fuel infrastructure, adding transmission will be crucial to Democrats' climate goals and fulfilling the clean energy potential of the Inflation Reduction Act. "I think Democrats in the Senate are definitely going to want to come to the table on transmission," Neil Chatterjee, a former Federal Energy Regulatory Commission chairman and past adviser to Senate GOP Leader Mitch McConnell, said in an interview. "What will be interesting to watch is ... can you form a coalition of folks who understand that in order to get durable bipartisan consensus, you're probably going to have to negotiate something that ... expedite[s] the build-out of natural gas infrastructure in the short term?" Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee Chair Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) will take a "close look" at the House bill and "is hopeful there might be a pathway to permitting legislation that could gain bipartisan support," spokesperson Sam Runyon said. As part of that effort, the Senate energy committee will hold a permitting oversight hearing but has yet to set a date, Runyon added. Meanwhile, Sen. John Barrasso (R-Wyo.), the ranking member of the Senate energy committee, is partnering with Sen. Shelley Moore Capito (R-W.Va.), the top Republican on the Environment and Public Works Committee, to form legislation similar to the House's bill. "We look forward to working with any Senate Democrat who is serious about fixing our disastrous permitting process," Barrasso said in a March 30 statement. Although seen as a messaging bill with no chance of enactment, the House legislation, called the Lower Energy Costs Act, could streamline permitting for a range of energy projects, particularly pipelines. "This was House Republicans putting out what they are for," Chatterjee said. "This is a pretty strong opening salvo to that negotiation [with the Senate]." The bill would limit climate considerations for pipelines under the National Environmental Policy Act and restrict states' ability to stop pipeline projects through the Clean Water Act. It would also make FERC the lead agency for federal pipeline approvals and give the commission exclusive authority to approve or deny siting of gas import and export projects, eliminating the need for the US Energy Department to sign off on LNG exports. A bigger role for FERC could give the industry more stability, Chatterjee said. "There's concern about a unilateral administrator [such as the DOE] potentially blocking these things," the former FERC chair said. "[With] FERC being an independent agency with a bipartisan configuration, you can potentially get more consistent outcomes over the course of time." Gas industry groups praised the House bill. The legislation "would expedite permitting timelines and judicial reviews for energy infrastructure — statutory changes needed to build projects," said Amy Andryszak, president and CEO of the Interstate Natural Gas Association of America.

GOP bill gets construction of natural gas pipelines completed - U.S. Reps. Carol Miller (R-WV) and Guy Reschenthaler (R-PA) on March 29 offered legislation to ensure that bureaucratic red tape and lawsuits would no longer hold up the completion of natural gas pipelines like the Mountain Valley Pipeline. Rep. Miller sponsored the Complete American Pipelines Act of 2023, H.R. 2384, with two GOP original cosponsors, including Rep. Reschenthaler. If enacted, H.R. 2384 would lower energy costs by ending judicial review for legacy projects and providing jurisdiction to the United States Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit, according to the text of the bill. “The Completing American Pipelines Act will finish projects, like the Mountain Valley Pipeline, that have been held up by the radical, left-wing courts and will implement a needed check on our judicial system,” Rep. Miller said. “The American people are depending on domestic energy production so energy prices will finally go down. I look forward to the Completing American Pipelines Act coming to the House floor shortly to unleash American energy.” Once completed, the under-construction Mountain Valley Pipeline will send natural gas from West Virginia, Ohio, and Pennsylvania to North Carolina and South Carolina. Completion of the pipeline has been held up for several years by lawsuits. “The construction of the 303-mile Mountain Valley Pipeline equates to more good-paying jobs, lower energy costs, and increased energy independence for Pennsylvania and the entire region,” Rep. Reschenthaler said. “I thank Rep. Carol Miller for her diligence in ensuring this project — which is already 94 percent completed — can be seen through to the finish line for our shared states’ benefit. It’s past time to cut the liberal red tape and complete the Mountain Valley Pipeline once and for all.” H.R. 2384 has been referred to the U.S. House Energy and Commerce Committee for consideration.

Federal court blocks Manchin-backed pipeline in West Virginia -A Virginia court on Monday vacated permits for an interstate natural gas pipeline championed by Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.). In a unanimous decision, the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Fourth Circuit in Richmond tossed the earlier approval of the Mountain Valley Pipeline (MVP) by West Virginia’s Department of Environmental Protection. In its ruling, the panel found fault with the department’s certification of the pipeline under the Clean Water Act. Specifically, the court ruled that the department’s decision did not properly consider earlier violations of water quality standards by the pipeline. The panel also ruled that the department did not sufficiently justify a decision to waive review of the pipeline’s antidegradation precautions. The court had approved the pipeline’s Virginia permits days earlier, but said that West Virginia’s reviews specifically had been insufficient. MVP agreed in 2019 to pay a $2.15 million civil penalty over allegations of environmental violations in connection with the pipeline’s operations in southwestern Virginia. “Without substantive assurance that MVP will comply with those policies, the Department’s sanguine outlook is troubling—especially given MVP’s prior violations,” the panel wrote. In a statement, Manchin called the decision “infuriating,” describing the pipeline as essential to American energy security amid the ongoing war in Ukraine. “This pipeline is more than 90% constructed with 283 miles already laid, and once through the red tape can bring an additional 2 billion cubic feet per day of natural gas onto the market within months,” the West Virginia Democrat wrote. “This project has been through three rounds of water quality permitting but activist groups continue to litigate the last 20 miles, standing in the way of restoring land to its natural beauty, getting more product to market to bolster our energy security and bring down prices, and allowing West Virginians to benefit from the natural resources they own.” Manchin has long been an advocate for the pipeline and has repeatedly pointed to its repeated holdups as an example of the need for streamlining the energy permitting process.

Joe Biden pushed for fracking in Ukraine days after Hunter joined Burisma board - Joe Biden pushed for Ukraine to frack gas during his 2014 vice presidential visit – just days after his son Hunter joined the board of a firm set to profit from it. The first son joined the board of allegedly corrupt Ukrainian gas firm Burisma on April 18, 2014, the company announced in a press release at the time. Three days later, Joe was aboard Air Force 2 for an official visit to the East European country. One of his senior officials briefed reporters on the plane that the VP was pushing 'medium- and long-term strategies to boost conventional gas production, and also to begin to take advantage of the unconventional gas reserves that are in Ukraine.' The 'unconventional' reserves were a reference to fracking, a gas extraction method for which Burisma was one of the few firms in Ukraine to have a license at the time. The official said Joe was also promising help for Ukrainian energy firms from US experts. Biden's push for greater energy production was politically significant – making Ukraine more economically independent from Russia. But the move also led to millions of dollars for the company his son was then working for. According to Burisma's website, it ramped up production from 100million cubic meters in 2010 to 1.3 billion cubic meters in 2018 – when it generated revenues of at least $400million, according to a Reuters estimate. In 2019 Burisma held 35 licenses for hydrocarbon production in Ukraine's main oil and gas basins. According to energy industry publication KeyFactsEnergy.com it began using hydraulic fracturing, known as fracking, in 2016 and by May 2019 used the technology in 10% of its wells. A Burisma executive explained how the company benefited from the help of US expertise in Ukraine, in a 2017 interview with Ukrainian trade publication Nefterynok. Head of country operations Taras Burdeinyi said Burisma partnered with US firms ​​Schlumberger and ProPetro Services for fracking in Ukraine, allowing it to grow the 'largest modern rig fleet' in the country, three years after Biden's intervention. Mike McCormick, a White House stenographer who was on board the April 2014 Air Force 2 flight, told DailyMail.com that the anonymous 'senior official' who gave the briefing was Jake Sullivan, who now serves as President Biden's National Security Advisor. 'Our job basically was to record everything that was said to the press, or public facing, and very quickly make transcripts that the White House could release,' McCormick said.'The flight was on April 21, Easter Monday. We flew from DC to Ukraine on Air Force Two. My job was to sit in the back with journalists, with a tape recorder and microphone in case there was a statement to the press.'Sullivan came to the back and did a briefing as a "senior administration official". They wanted to publicize what he said, they weren't afraid of it. But as a senior administration official, so no name attached to it. Transcripts of the briefing show Sullivan was identified only as a 'senior administration official' to avoid 'attaching a name to it'

The indictment of Donald Trump: A politically bankrupt diversion -- Donald Trump is expected to turn himself in on Tuesday for arraignment on indictments handed down by a New York grand jury, reportedly in connection to payouts made on Trump’s behalf to a former porn star. The first-ever charges against a former president of the United States mark a new stage in the degradation of American politics. There are no issues of democratic import in the indictment. Rather, the Democratic Party has chosen to focus on the flimsiest and most inconsequential matter possible. Trump is being accused of falsifying the nature of payments to the porn star, Stormy Daniels, made in 2016 before he was president, which were channeled through Trump’s longtime “fixer”-turned-government witness, Michael Cohen. Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg is reportedly planning on leveraging this charge, which is a misdemeanor that has exceeded the statute of limitations, into a felony by arguing that the business records were falsified to cover up an illegal donation to Trump’s campaign, namely the money from Cohen to pay off Daniels. The tenuous and convoluted character of the charges has promoted concern within sections of the Democratic Party itself. The Washington Post in its editorial on Friday worried that “of the long list of alleged violations, the likely charges on which a grand jury in New York state voted to indict [Trump] are perhaps the least compelling.” The Democrats’ decision to focus on this issue will serve to strengthen the fascistic wing of the Republican Party and even provide Trump with the opportunity to posture as a martyr. Trump is already denouncing the “political witch-hunt,” while Republicans are rallying around the former president. Trump’s former vice president, Mike Pence, whom the Democrats have upheld as a paragon of democracy, denounced the indictment as an “outrage.” The indictment has nothing to do with the many grave crimes of which Trump is clearly guilty—above all, the January 6, 2021 fascistic insurrection that sought to overturn the results of the 2020 elections and establish a presidential dictatorship. The Post notes that “a failed prosecution over the hush-money payment could put” all other investigations into Trump’s actions “in jeopardy.”The indictment of Trump for the payout to Daniels has nothing to do with educating the population about the real dangers posed by the fascistic transformation of the Republican Party. Rather, it diverts attention from issues of deadly seriousness into a political circus. The “national debate” is now to be focused, with the assistance of the media, on whether or not Trump paid off an actress to cover up an affair. While a trial of Trump on this basis may energize the upper-middle class base of the Democratic Party, the working class will view it with indifference. The Republicans will exploit the obvious hypocrisy on such matters by the Democrats, whose own leaders, including Clinton, were involved in the Jeffrey Epstein scandal.

Opinion | Trump indictment is a dangerous leap on the highest of wires - As a presidential candidate in 2016, frantic to keep evidence of his extramarital affairs secret, Donald Trump made extensive efforts to buy the silence of the women involved. There’s never been much doubt about that. The behavior of the candidate and his allies was a corrupt effort to keep voters from learning the truth about Trump.The hard question is whether those efforts also violated the criminal law — specifically, now that a New York grand jury has indicted him on 34 felony counts, whether they violated the laws of the state of New York. On that front, the indictment unsealed on Tuesday is disturbingly unilluminating, and the theory on which it rests is debatable at best, unnervingly flimsy at worst.That is a scary situation when it comes to the first criminal charges ever lodged against a former president.I’m not saying prosecutors will lose this case. They could well win, and I hope they do, because a failure to secure a conviction will only inflame Trump and his supporters in their claims that the criminal justice system is being weaponized against them. But the fears I had in the weeks leading up to the indictment about the strength of the case against Trump were in no way allayed by Tuesday’s developments.The indictment and an accompanying recitation of the underlying factsoffers almost nothing in the way of new evidence against Trump. No surprise there — the tawdry details of Trump’s “catch and kill” scheme to suppress damaging information from adult-film actress Stormy Daniels and former Playboy model Karen McDougal about their relationships with Trump have already been well-aired.They include the guilty plea by Trump fixer Michael Cohen, who admitted to paying off Daniels at Trump’s behest and then securing reimbursement for the $130,000 in hush money by falsely describing the payments as legal retainers.Cohen admitted to, among other charges, violating federal election law — specifically, making an illegal corporate contribution, and making a contribution in excess of contribution limits. But federal prosecutors neither brought charges against Trump — he was president when Cohen was prosecuted, and therefore not subject to indictment under Justice Department practice — nor pursued them after Trump left office.Which leaves open the question of whether New York state prosecutors can transmogrify this conduct into a state crime. Answer: maybe. And don’t be fooled by the 34 counts: That healthy-sounding number doesn’t signify anything about the strength of the case. They will all rise or fall together depending on whether prosecutors’ theory of the case holds up. The theory is this: New York law makes it a crime to falsify business records. Ordinarily, that is just a misdemeanor. But if the falsification is done with intent to defraud and intent to conceal another crime, that act becomes a felony.“That is exactly what this case is about,” Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg said during a news conference following Trump’s arraignment. “Thirty-four false statements made to cover up other crimes. These are felony crimes in New York state no matter who you are. We cannot and will not normalize serious criminal conduct.” Okay, but what are the other crimes Trump is accused of covering up? The indictment doesn’t say, but Bragg was asked on Tuesday, and he offered a few possibilities. First, he said, the doctored records “violated New York election law, which makes it a crime to conspire to promote a candidacy by unlawful means,” including making false statements. Second, Bragg cited the federal election law cap on contribution limits.

Trump pleads not guilty to 34 felony charges – — Prosecutors in Manhattan say former president Donald Trump orchestrated a sweeping scheme to bury damaging allegations about extramarital affairs — which had been set to emerge before the 2016 presidential election — and then tried to cover it up by falsifying company records.“During and in furtherance of his candidacy for President, the Defendant and others agreed to identify and suppress negative stories about him,” according to charging documents unveiled Tuesday by Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg. Trump pleaded not guilty Tuesday to 34 felony charges connected to his role in the alleged scheme, a plea that came at the conclusion of an extraordinary trip to the courthouse for the former president. Trump, the first former president ever indicted, delivered his plea in a Manhattan courtroom a few hours after turning himself in to authorities.All 34 counts he faces are for “falsifying business records,” a crime that carries a sentence of up to four years in prison when charged as a felony. Judges often sentence first-time offenders to probation, particularly in non-violent cases. But Bragg said the case was an important one, meant to punish Trump’s effort to conceal alleged crimes.“We cannot and will not normalize serious criminal conduct,” he said at a press conference after the indictment was unsealed, emphasizing that the specific crime with which Trump was charged is “the bread and butter of our white-collar work.”The charging documents suggest that prosecutors are relying on witness testimony, business records and a recorded conversation in September 2016 between Trump and his then-attorney Michael Cohen. After the election, prosecutors say, Trump and Cohen concocted a plan to reimburse Cohen for making one of the hush money payments on Trump’s behalf. They tried to mask the reimbursement by mixing it with other payments to Cohen that he could categorize as income rather than a repayment, according to prosecutors.The unveiling of the charges will trigger a frenzied legal battle by Trump and his team to derail the case, which will unfold as he mounts a renewed bid for the White House in 2024. Prosecutors suggested a trial date of January 2024, but Trump’s attorney said that timeframe might be too ambitious, with a spring 2024 trial date more reasonable.Trump declined to answer questions before stepping into the courtroom, striding stone-faced through the crowded courthouse hallways, flanked by a significant NYPD and Secret Service contingent. He sat at a table in the courtroom alongside attorneys Todd Blanche, Susan Necheles, Joe Tacopina and Boris Epshteyn.Bragg sat in the first row of the gallery, flanked by staffers.Trump entered the not guilty plea himself and remained solemn, looking straight ahead throughout the proceedings. As he exited, he had a scowl on his face and glanced side to side at the reporters occupying the courtroom rows.Though Trump said little during the arraignment, his prior statements became a point of contention in court after prosecutors voiced concern about what they described as the inflammatory nature of some of his remarks in the weeks preceding the indictment — specifically when he called Bragg an “animal” and posted a picture of himself holding a baseball bat alongside an image of the district attorney.

Read the full Trump indictment and statement of facts – POLITICO --Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg brought felony charges of falsifying business records against the former president and 2024 contender for the GOP nomination. Prosecutors in New York unsealed an indictment and statement of facts Tuesday against former President Donald Trump on felony charges of falsifying business records in his alleged role in a hush money scheme. Read the full indictment here. Also read the statement of facts from the case here.

Trump decries charges against him as an 'insult to our country' - Former President Donald Trump struck a defiant note Tuesday evening, declaring that felony charges made against him were erroneous, politically motivated and “an insult to our country.” “The only crime that I have committed is to fearlessly defend our nation from those who seek to destroy it,” he said while addressing his supporters at his Mar-a-Lago estate just hours after being arraigned in New York. The remarks were Trump’s first since the details of the indictment were unveiled Tuesday afternoon in Manhattan. The former president pleaded not guilty to 34 felony charges of filing false business records related to an alleged scheme to bury allegations about extramarital affairs ahead of the 2016 presidential election. Trump went after Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg, describing him as a “criminal,” a “radical left” prosecutor and a “failed district attorney,” while calling for him to be prosecuted. “The criminal is the district attorney, because he illegally leaked massive amounts of grand jury information, for which he should be prosecuted, or at a minimum, he should resign,” Trump said. He didn’t stop there. Trump also attacked the state judge presiding over the arraignment, acting Justice Juan Merchan, and his family. “This is where we are right now,” the former president said. “I have a Trump-hating judge, with a Trump-hating wife and family.” The comments came after Merchan decided against imposing a gag order on the former president, while warning against making statements that “incite violence or create civil unrest.”

‘Frustrated and upset,’ Trump goes silent, then seethes - — Donald Trump spent much of Tuesday in an unfamiliar position, at the mercy of others: whisked around Manhattan by the Secret Service; getting fingerprinted in the custody of the district attorney; sitting still and quietly before a judge. He was the center of attention, but not the master of ceremonies, almost entirely silent beyond uttering “not guilty” in court and blasting out all-caps posts on his social media site. But as soon as the former president returned home, to his namesake ballroom filled with his adoring fans, he was a rock star again, and he snapped back to his usual combative posture, lashing out at the prosecutor and judge in personal terms, despite the latter’s admonition Tuesday to watch his words. In contrast to the scowl Trump wore all day, his seething speech was delivered to an ebullient crowd, packed with the “Front Row Joes” who frequent every rally, a group of bikers wearing “Born to Ride for Donald J. Trump” leather vests, longtime adviser Roger Stone, and a handful of loyal lawmakers, such as Reps. Matthew M. Rosendale (R-Mont.) and Ronny Jackson (R-Tex.). Many other prominent Republicans, such as senators and national committee members, passed on the invitation, billed as a “memorable and historic evening!”“It’s weird to see all these people celebrating,” said Caroline Wren, a pro-Trump fundraiser who attended with Kari Lake, the failed Arizona gubernatorial candidate and election denier who received chants of “Kari Won!” “Who has a baby shower, we need to have an arraignment party.”The split-screen highlighted the two worlds Trump is spanning as he makes a third straight bid for the presidency: one in which he is a defiant political hero and early polling leader for the 2024 Republican nomination, and another in which he is in increasing legal peril.Hours after Trump pleaded not guilty to 34 felony counts related topayments intended to silence an adult-film actress during his 2016 presidential run, his event here Tuesday night was set up like a wedding, with a center aisle down which Trump was preceded by Donald Trump Jr. and his fiancee, Kimberly Guilfoyle; daughter Tiffany Trump and her husband; Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Fla.) and his fiancee; Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.); and Eric Trump and wife Lara. MyPillow CEO and election conspiracy theorist Mike Lindell entered to cheers during the theme from “Phantom of the Opera.” Some campaign advisers who’d traveled with Trump to New York walked in to David Bowie’s “Rebel Rebel.”Trump’s wife, Melania, whose wedding was the ballroom’s inaugural event in 2005, did not appear on Tuesday.Lake, speaking from the Mar-a-Lago ballroom to the Right Side Broadcasting Network, said Trump’s spirits were lifted by the crowds who came out to see him, and he raised his fist upon returning to the club, repeating the gesture he made earlier while leaving Trump Tower for court in New York. Trump traveled with a large coterie of aides, some of whom tried to cheer him up by showing him tweets, statements and interviews criticizing the indictment by Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg.He did not bring reporters on the plane, as he has to recent campaign stops, and he did not approach the cameras to make a statement while heading in or out of court. One of his lawyers, Todd Blanche, characterized him as “absolutely frustrated and upset and believes there is a grave injustice happening with him being in this courtroom today.”

The new revelations — and key questions — in the Trump indictment - The 16-page indictment against Donald Trump accuses him of 34 felonies for allegedly falsifying business records in a bid to violate campaign finance laws — a bevy of charges setting in motion the first criminal prosecution of a former president in American history. Manhattan prosecutors allege that Trump concealed hush money payments by falsely labeling related transactions as legal expenses and by arranging for a tabloid publisher to bottle up the story of a woman who said she had a sexual relationship with Trump. In doing so, the prosecutors say, Trump repeatedly violated a New York corporate record-keeping law and agreed to break campaign finance laws. All 34 felony charges against Trump are identical, with each carrying the possibility of up to four years in prison, although judges rarely sentence defendants to jail for such offenses. The indictment is a bare-bones document that simply recites the alleged offenses in boiler-plate language. However, Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg’s office also released a 14-page statement of facts laying out the case in greater detail. Here are details from the groundbreaking court filings that could make or break the case of People v. Donald J. Trump. The aggravating factor Text excerpted from Statement of Facts released by Alan Bragg's office Going into Tuesday’s historic and much-previewed arraignment, a key mystery was exactly how Bragg planned to bring the charges as felonies. The charge at the heart of the case — falsifying business records — can amount to only a misdemeanor, but it becomes a felony if the defendant falsified the records to obscure a separate crime. The most obvious candidate for that aggravating element is the admission from Trump’s former lawyer, Michael Cohen, that he arranged a $130,000 payment to porn star Stormy Daniels in consultation with Trump and to aid Trump’s 2016 presidential campaign. “The defendant Donald J. Trump repeatedly and fraudulently falsified New York business records to conceal criminal conduct that hid damaging information from the voting public during the 2016 presidential election,” the statement of facts says. “The participants [in the scheme] violated election laws,” the statement continues, though it does not explicitly cite which ones. The statement also mentions Cohen’s guilty plea in 2018 to two federal campaign finance crimes. And in a press release, Bragg said Trump and others sought to conceal “attempts to violate state and federal election laws.” The references to federal election violations are virtually certain to be the focus of pre-trial motions from Trump’s attorneys, who have contended publicly that this state-law offense cannot be piggybacked on a federal-law crime. If defense attorneys prevail on such motions, it would not necessarily wipe out the criminal case against Trump. Instead, the case could remain as 34 misdemeanor charges. That would amount to a legal, public relations and political victory for Trump. Such a result would further diminish the chances of Trump being jailed if found guilty. The maximum sentence on a second-degree falsifying business records charge is up to one year in prison on each count. A downgrading of the case to a misdemeanor might also aid Trump’s efforts to delay a trial.

Trump arraignment: A degraded political spectacle that covers up his real crimes - The arraignment of ex-president Donald Trump Tuesday in a Manhattan court confirms the analysis made by the World Socialist Web Site that the charges against Trump are a political diversion by the Democratic Party, using a sex scandal to cover up the far more serious offenses committed by Trump, which culminated in his coup attempt of January 6, 2021. The indictment released by the Manhattan prosecutor’s office alleges 34 separate felony counts, three each for 11 separate payments to Trump’s former attorney and fixer Michael Cohen. Cohen actually made the $130,000 hush money payment to porn actress Stormy Daniels to ensure that she would not go public on the eve of the 2016 election with her account of a sexual encounter with Trump in 2006. Cohen was reimbursed for the $130,000 in the course of 2017, as well as $50,000 for another unspecified action on Trump’s behalf, together with $180,000 to cover the tax payment he would have to make since he reported the payments as income, and a $60,000 bonus. The total came to $420,000, payable in monthly installments. The case presented in the indictment is extraordinarily weak and convoluted from a legal standpoint. Factually, there is no doubt about what Trump did, and this will be detailed by Cohen and other witnesses, and verified by checks, invoices and vouchers. Each document is treated as a separate felony in the indictment. But paying someone to remain silent about a sexual encounter, or buying someone’s story in order not to publish it, is not illegal. Nor is lying about one’s personal conduct in the course of an election campaign. If every politician who lied about such matters were prosecuted, the jails would overflow. Moreover, as a matter of principle, the criminalization of private sexual conduct is fundamentally reactionary, as are sex scandals in general, including the current furor over the payment of what the media now calls “hush money.” It is a fact of American life that sex-related allegations are frequently made, and that those accused may make the practical calculation that it is cheaper to pay the plaintiff, whether the charges are true or false, rather than incur the exorbitant cost of a legal defense, to say nothing of the negative publicity. In the most famous previous case involving an American president, Bill Clinton’s lawyers offered to pay Paula Jones $700,000 to settle her lawsuit over her allegations of improper behavior. Her right-wing Republican lawyers rejected the money because they were using the lawsuit to lay a perjury trap for Clinton that ultimately led to his impeachment. Clinton could not be charged for offering to settle the Jones lawsuit, because that was not a crime. Only when he was forced to testify under oath, and lied about his relationship with Monica Lewinsky, could the trap be sprung.

Jim Jordan- Trump Indictment Is About Going After Anyone Who Opposes The Left's Agenda, The Esta< House Judiciary Chairman Jim Jordan threatened Sunday to defund any government agencies that engage in election interference, charging that both the FBI and the DOJ have done exactly that in their constant attempts to go after President Trump. Appearing on Fox News, Jordan stated “The key is to get the facts on the table. We’re doing that with all kinds of issues where we think agencies have been turned against the very American people they’re supposed to serve.” “So you get the facts on the table, and then you look at legislation,” Jordan continued, adding “Our job is we’re legislators. Our job is to pass legislation, write laws and pass legislation. So we’ll look at that.” “We control the power of the purse, and that’s — we’re going to have to look at the appropriations process and limit funds going to some of these agencies, particularly the ones engaged in the most egregious behavior,” Jordan asserted. “So the DOJ and the FBI?” host Maria Bartiromo interjected. “Yeah. And what I’d really like, frankly, I’d really like for the government just to stay out of the election process,” Jordan responded, going on to document how those agencies have targeted Trump. “2016, they spied on his campaign. 2018, the Mueller investigation. 2020 they suppressed the hunter Biden story. 2022, they raid his home 91 days before an election, and now 2024 election, the leading candidate for the presidential nomination, they indict the former president and top candidate who’s leading in every poll,” the Congressman pointed out. “Just let ‘We, The People’ decide who we want to elect and stay out of the election process, for goodness sake,” Jordan urged.

Circus: Marjorie Taylor Greene, George Santos home in on Trump indictment - Georgia Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene gave a brief speech at a rally across the street from Manhattan Criminal Courthouse Tuesday to protest the indictment of former President Donald Trump.“We are here to peacefully protest against the persecution of an innocent man. Not just any innocent man, this is the former president of the United States of America,” Greene told the crowd.At the protest, put on with the New York Young Republicans, a group with ties to white nationalists, there were nearly more media than there were protestors. About 300 people turned out to protest Trump’s indictment with Greene, with nearly 150 counterprotesters also on the scene. Counter-protesters were seen playing drums and banging kettles toward the Trump supporters, with a metal police barricade separating the two parties.“I’m here to protest and use my voice to take a stand. Every American should take a stand,” Greene said.While Greene was only present at the protest for about 10 minutes, conservative members swarmed around Greene, shoving and elbowing to get a glimpse at the congressmember. NYPD escorted her out.Greene has been one of Trump’s most loyal supporters, defending him since the Capitol attack on Jan. 6, 2021. Greene recently appeared with Trump at his Waco, Texas rally.New York Rep. George Santos quickly walked by the courthouse earlier Tuesday, not stopping to protest or answer questions.“I wanted to support the president because this is unprecedented, and this is a bad day for democracy,” Santos told reporters. “This starts a precedent of what’s to stop the next prosecutor in two years to do the same thing to Joe Biden and moving on every four years.”

Megyn Kelly: Media treating Stormy Daniels ‘like she’s Joan of arc’ - Former Fox News host and conservative pundit Megyn Kelly said the media is treating Stormy Daniels — the adult film star at the center of former President Trump’s most recent legal woes — “like she’s Joan of Arc.” Kelly, joined by the hosts of the Ruthless Podcast, played a clip of Daniels’ recent interview with with British television pundit Piers Morgan, who asked Daniels if she thinks Trump is going to jail. “I mean, it’s like listening to Elena Kagan, right? It’s another Sandra Day O’Connor,” Kelly joked to the guest hosts during her SiriusXM program “The Megyn Kelly Show,” referring to the current and former Supreme Court justices. Kelly, who also had a short stint with NBC News, went further, calling out Daniels for calling her beef with Trump “his crimes against me.” “Aren’t you the one who had an affair with a married man after a lifetime starring in flicks like Summer Hummer and then tried to extort the man before he ran for president 10 years after your alleged interlude,” Kelly said on her radio show. “Piers interviewed her, but the left is celebrating this woman like she’s Joan of Arc,” Kelly added. “I mean — like ‘her bravery.'” Kelly’s remarks come after Daniels told Morgan that the possibility of testifying against Trump is “daunting,” but that she is looking forward to telling her story in court if called to the stand.

Daniels says Trump should be jailed if guilty in other cases, but not hers - Adult film star Stormy Daniels said former President Trump should be sent to prison if he is convicted in the other cases in which he is being investigated but not for the case involving her. Daniels told broadcaster Piers Morgan in an interview that Trump should “absolutely” be incarcerated if he is found guilty in the other legal cases he is facing, arguing that him not going to prison would open “the door for other people to think they can get away with doing that and worse.” “Specific to my case, I don’t think that his crimes against me are worthy of incarceration,” she said. Trump was arraigned on Tuesday in the case related to Daniels and pleaded not guilty to 34 felony charges of falsifying business records. Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg (D), who brought the case, alleges that the records were falsified to cover up reimbursements that Trump made to his former attorney Michael Cohen. Cohen paid Daniels $130,000 ahead of the 2016 presidential election in exchange for her silence about an affair that she alleges she had with Trump years prior. Bragg said upon announcing the charges that the payments Trump made to Cohen were declared to be legal expenses, but they were not.

Americans divided over criminal charges against Trump - Reuters/Ipsos poll  (Reuters) - The prosecution of former President Donald Trump has evenly divided Americans but appears to have boosted his chances of winning the Republican nomination for the 2024 election, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll released on Thursday.The poll was conducted on Wednesday and Thursday, following Tuesday's indictment of Trump on 34 felony counts of falsifying business records by prosecutors in New York City. read moreThe survey found that 49% of all Americans think it was right for prosecutors to pursue the first criminal case against a U.S. president or former president.But the finding underscores the political divide on so many matters revolving around Trump. Some 84% of self-described Democrats said the charges were merited, while only 16% of Republicans agreed.Some 40% of Republicans said the case made them more likely to vote for Trump in 2024, while 12% said it made them less likely to support him. Another 38% said it had no impact.Trump leads the field for the Republican nomination by a wide margin, with 58% of Republicans saying he is their preferred nominee. That is up from 48% in a Reuters/Ipsos poll released on Monday. read moreFlorida Governor Ron DeSantis, who has not entered the race, came in second at 21%. While Democrats and Republicans are deeply split over the prosecution of the case, the survey showed a strong belief that Trump arranged payments to porn star Stormy Daniels and model Karen McDougal to keep them quiet about alleged extramarital relationships. Some 73% of Americans believed that to be the case, including 55% of Republicans.However, 76% of Republicans think some in law enforcement are working to delegitimize Trump through politically motivated investigations, compared to 34% of Democrats.Some 51% of all respondents, but only 18% of Republicans, said the charges should disqualify Trump from again running for president.

Trump judge, family have received multiple threats since arrest: report --The judge overseeing the legal proceedings for former President Trump in the hush money payment case and his family have received multiple threats since Trump’s arrest on Tuesday, NBC News reported. In the leadup to and aftermath of Trump’s arraignment, the former president has strongly criticized Judge Juan Merchan as a “Trump hating judge.” He has also criticized members of Merchan’s family. Prior to his arraignment, Trump made suggestions that “potential death and destruction” could come from him facing charges. At the arraignment, Merchan warned Trump that he should “refrain” from social media posts that could incite violence. But Trump continued attacking Merchan and others involved in the case in a speech he gave Tuesday night following the arraignment. He reiterated his accusation that Merchan is a “Trump-hating judge” and railed against Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg (D), who requested a grand jury approve charges against Trump. Two sources familiar with the matter told NBC that Merchan and his family have received multiple threats in just the 24 hours following the hearing. An official said Merchan and his office have received “dozens” of threats recently but did not specify a time frame. The other source said Bragg and other top officials in the district attorney’s office have also received threats. The threats have come from calls, emails and letters, NBC reported. Court officers are increasing security for Merchan and the court as a precaution, while New York police officers assigned to the district attorney’s office’s security detail is also providing additional security to affected staff members. Trump and two of his sons, Donald Jr. and Eric, have also criticized Merchan’s daughter. Donald Trump Jr. posted a link to a conservative outlet on Truth Social discussing the daughter’s political activity.

Jordan subpoenas former prosecutor in Trump hush money investigation - House Judiciary Chair Jim Jordan (R-Ohio) on Thursday subpoenaed a former Manhattan District Attorney’s Office prosecutor who had worked on the office’s investigation into hush money payments from former President Trump. The move escalates a fledgling investigation into Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg’s (D) office that began shortly after Trump predicted his arrest in connection with the probe and comes as Jordan has said he is weighing a subpoena to Bragg. The subpoena to Mark Pomerantz follows a letter asking him to speak with the committee about his resignation from the office after leading the investigation into Trump. “Based on your unique role as a special assistant district attorney leading the investigation into President Trump’s finances, you are uniquely situated to provide information that is relevant and necessary to inform the Committee’s oversight and potential legislative reforms,” Jordan wrote in the letter. He goes on to address a book penned by Pomerantz about efforts to prosecute Trump as well as television appearances made to discuss the case. “As a result, you have no basis to decline to testify about matters before the Committee that you have already discussed in your book and/or on a prime-time television program with an audience in the millions, including on the basis of any purported duty of confidentiality or privilege interest,” Jordan added. Pomerantz resigned from working on Bragg’s Trump investigation about a year ago over disagreements with Bragg over the Trump case, writing in a resignation letter published by the New York Times that he believed Trump was “guilty of numerous felony violations.” He said Bragg’s reluctance to pursue charges against Trump was “misguided and completely contrary to the public interest.” Jordan sent initial testimony requests to Pomerantz and Carey Dunne, a former Manhattan special assistant District Attorney who also resigned from Bragg’s Trump investigation around the same time as Pomerantz, on Mar. 22 following an announcement from Trump last month that he expected to be arrested in the hush money probe.

Trump’s call to defund DOJ, FBI puts Senate, House GOP at odds - Former President Trump’s call for Congress to defund the Department of Justice and the FBI in response to growing legal pressure creates a new headache for Republican leaders on Capitol Hill and may undercut their message that Republicans are tough on crime. Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell (Ky.) has championed the message this year that the Biden administration and Democrats around the country are weak on crime, but now he’s faced with Trump supporters in the House threatening to cut funding for the nation’s top law enforcement agencies. One such Trump ally is House Judiciary Committee Chairman Jim Jordan (R-Ohio), who on Sunday endorsed the idea of cutting money for the Justice Department and FBI. Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.), who relied on Jordan’s support to win the Speaker’s gavel after 15 ballots, is giving his chairman plenty of space to pressure federal prosecutors and investigators to back off Trump. While McConnell has chastised the Justice Department and FBI for “harassing” conservatives, such as parents who complain at local school board meetings, embracing the idea of cutting federal law enforcement money amid what many Republicans say is a national crime wave is politically dangerous, experts and strategists say. “Trump is creating problems for Republicans everywhere,” said Steven S. Smith, a professor of political science at Washington University in St. Louis. “It’s almost impossible to see anything good from this kind of comment coming for the Republicans. “The idea that they would get on the opposite side of law enforcement agencies from where they have traditionally been is only going to make them look radical and foolish in the eyes of many of the voters they absolutely need: suburbanites and exurban voters who are already showing disdain for Trump-supporting Republicans,” he added. “Trump’s comments make it more difficult for Republicans who are tying their political future to him.” Trump on Wednesday declared that, “Republicans in Congress should defund the DOJ and FBI until they come to their senses” in apparent response to the Justice Department’s investigation of whether he incited the Jan 6, 2021, attack on the U.S. Capitol and his handling of classified documents at his personal residence.

House GOP's Biden investigations sputter out of the gate - House Republicans charged into the majority vowing an investigative onslaught against President Joe Biden and Democrats. But they’ve gotten almost nowhere so far — and some in the party are getting frustrated. According to interviews with more than a dozen House Republicans, a sizable chunk of the conference is focused on preventing a banking crisis and a looming debt fight instead of on Biden family oversight or a politicized government panel. At the same time, the party base is chafing at the lack of big bombshells and concrete steps against administration officials to back up all of lawmakers’ talk. “All of us hear from constituents that they’re very anxious for results. And our task, part of our task, is explaining to people what this process is about, and what to expect,” Rep. Mike Johnson (R-La.), a member of House GOP leadership, said in a brief interview. “I think some people get anxious because they just want immediate results.” Republicans have fired off scores of letters, issued subpoenas and initial reports and held a handful of hearings. But part of the problem is the lofty expectations they set coming in. Long before GOP lawmakers settled their speakership fight, they promised voters they’d deploy the chamber’s oversight power against President Joe Biden on a host of issues. They vowed to find a smoking gun that links Biden to his family’s overseas business dealings. They even embraced comparisons of their investigative efforts to Congress’ storied 1970s Church Committee, which uncovered significant abuses by the intelligence community. The pressure on Republicans stems chiefly from the gap between their voters’ hopes and Washington reality — for example, Johnson said some of his constituents want them making indictments and arrests, which Congress doesn’t have the power to do. But Republicans also acknowledge some of their problems are self-inflicted as they face growing pains readjusting to the majority. One GOP aide, granted anonymity to speak frankly, described an internal perception that the politicized government subpanel run by Judiciary Committee Chair Jim Jordan (R-Ohio) had gotten off to a “rocky start” after its initial hearing revealed little new information. That same hearing sparked public kvetching among outside groups and high-profile pundits, who questioned both the structure and the strategy of the panel. “There’s always going to be people who want to go 110 miles an hour and get frustrated with the pace of how things work,” said Rep. Kelly Armstrong (R-N.D.), a member of both the politicized government panel and the Oversight Committee. He noted many House Republicans are new to life in the majority.

Greene defends calling Democrats ‘pedophiles,’ eliciting eye-roll from 60 Minutes’ Stahl -- Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) defended calling Democrats “pedophiles” in a new interview with CBS’s “60 Minutes” Sunday, eliciting eye-rolls from correspondent Lesley Stahl. Stahl asked Greene about what she called “over-the-top” comments, such as saying that “Democrats are a party of pedophiles.” “I would definitely say so,” Greene responded. “They support grooming children.” “They are not pedophiles,” Stahl responded. “Why would you say that?” “Democrats support — even Joe Biden the president himself — supports children being sexualized, having transgender surgeries,” Greene responded. “Sexualizing children is what pedophiles do to children.” Greene’s response elicited an eye roll from Stahl, who sighed and said “wow,” before asking her next question: whether the congresswoman might fight for what she believed without name calling and personal attacks. “I would ask the same question to the other side. Because all they’ve done is call me names and insult me nonstop since I’ve been here,” Greene said. “They call me racist. They call me anti-semitic, which is not true. I’m not calling anyone names. I’m calling out the truth basically,” she added. Greene has been called out for controversial comments such as saying in April that any senator who voted to confirm Supreme Court Justice Ketanji Brown Jackson, the first black woman on the high court, was “pro-pedophile just like she is.” She touched a nerve on both sides of the political aisle in February when she called for a national divorce, writing “From the sick and disgusting woke culture issues shoved down our throats to the Democrat’s traitorous America Last policies, we are done.”And she has peddled false claims about the 2020 election, COVID-19 vaccines and immigrants arriving at the southern border. Greene has also repeatedly taken aim at gender-affirming care for trans youth and introduced the “Protect Children’s Innocence Act,” a bill that would outlaw more than a dozen medical interventions for trans youth.

Democrats express outrage over Clarence Thomas luxury travel report -- Democrats are voicing outrage following a report that Supreme Court Justice Clarence Thomas accepted luxury trips for more than two decades from a Republican mega-donor without disclosing them. ProPublica reported on Thursday that Harlan Crow, a Dallas-based real estate developer who has donated millions to conservative causes, paid for Thomas to join various vacations, including trips on Harlan’s private jet and 162-foot yacht. Senate Judiciary Committee Chair Dick Durbin (D-Ill.) said his committee “will act” following the report. “The highest court in the land shouldn’t have the lowest ethical standards,” Durbin said in a statement. “Today’s Pro Publica report reveals that Justice Thomas has for years accepted luxury travel on private yachts and jets and a litany of other gifts that he failed to disclose. This behavior is simply inconsistent with the ethical standards the American people expect of any public servant, let alone a Justice on the Supreme Court.” Sen. Richard Durbin (D-Ill.) Sen. Richard Durbin (D-Ill.) leaves the Senate Chamber following a vote regarding a nomination on Wednesday, March 15, 2023. Based on flight records, internal documents and interviews, ProPublica reported that Thomas spent about a week nearly every summer at Crow’s resort in the Adirondacks in addition to a summer 2019 trip to Indonesia and other vacations around the globe. The costs, which spanned hundreds of thousands of dollars, were reportedly covered by Crow. But those reported trips were never disclosed on Thomas’s financial disclosures. Under a federal law passed in the wake of the Watergate scandal, Supreme Court justices and other top government officials are required to file annual financial disclosures. The justices in those reports are required to disclose gifts unless they fall under certain exceptions, and ProPublica reported that Thomas’s trips appeared to violate those rules.

Senators seek probes into report on undisclosed luxury trips by Supreme Court's Thomas - (Reuters) - Conservative U.S. Supreme Court Justice Clarence Thomas has for decades accepted luxury trips from a Dallas businessman without publicly disclosing them despite a federal law requiring disclosure of most gifts, a media report said on Thursday, prompting Senate Democrats to call for an investigation. The report by ProPublica found that Thomas has repeatedly vacationed with real estate magnate and Republican donor Harlan Crow, including on his private jet and superyacht in the United States and around the globe. The news outlet said the frequency of the gifts have "no known precedent in the modern history of the U.S. Supreme Court." Thomas and Chief Justice John Roberts did not immediately respond to a request for comment. The report raises new questions over potential conflicts of interest involving the justices and the court, which has endured escalating criticism for its lack of a formal ethics code. Crow told ProPublica in a statement that he and his wife have been friends with Thomas and his wife since 1996 and have "never sought to influence Justice Thomas on any legal or political issue." Senate Judiciary Committee Chair Dick Durbin said his panel "will act" based on the report, without specifying what steps it would take. "The highest court in the land shouldn't have the lowest ethical standards," said Durbin, a Democrat. Durbin said the justices must be held to an enforceable code of conduct like other federal judges, who are instructed to avoid even the "appearance of impropriety."

Ocasio-Cortez calls for Clarence Thomas impeachment after report of undisclosed gifts from GOP donor -- Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) is calling for Supreme Court Justice Clarence Thomas to be impeached following a report that he accepted luxurious gifts from a billionaire Republican donor for decades. For years, Thomas took luxury trips and outings on yachts and private jets owned by Dallas businessman Harlan Crow, according to an investigation by ProPublica. Thomas did not disclose the travel, the investigation found. Crow has donated lavishly to Republican candidates.Ocasio-Cortez blasted the alleged actions as an “almost cartoonish” level of corruption. “This is beyond party or partisanship,” Ocasio-Cortez said on Twitter. “This degree of corruption is shocking — almost cartoonish. Thomas must be impeached.” The New York congresswoman also said the report of Thomas’s alleged misconduct reflects negatively on Supreme Court Chief Justice John Roberts. “Barring some dramatic change, this is what the Roberts court will be known for: rank corruption, erosion of democracy, and the stripping of human rights,” Ocasio-Cortez continued. Ocasio-Cortez is not the only Democratic lawmaker to blast Thomas after the report was released. Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse (D-R.I.) said the news called for an independent investigation. Megyn Kelly: Media treating Stormy Daniels ‘like she’s Joan of arc’ Lettuce, salad kits sold in 6 states recalled over possible listeria contamination “This cries out for the kind of independent investigation that the Supreme Court — and only the Supreme Court, across the entire government— refuses to perform,” Whitehouse said on Twitter.

NPR chief fires back at Twitter over ‘state-affiliated media’ label - NPR president and CEO John Lansing fired back at Twitter on Wednesday after the social media platform labeled the news organization as “state-affiliated media.” “We were disturbed to see last night that Twitter has labeled NPR as ‘state-affiliated media,’ a description that, per Twitter’s own guidelines, does not apply to NPR,” Lansing said in a statement posted to Twitter. Twitter’s guidelines define state-affiliated media as “outlets where the state exercises control over editorial content through financial resources, direct or indirect political pressures, and/or control over production and distribution.”For instance, Russian state-owned news agency TASS is labeled as “Russia state-affiliated media,” and China’s official state news agency Xinhua is labeled as “China state-affiliated media.”However, Twitter also notes that “state-financed media organizations with editorial independence, like the BBC in the UK” are not considered state-affiliated media. The social media company does not recommend or amplify accounts with the state-affiliated media label to users, according to its guidelines.“NPR and our Member stations are supported by millions of listeners who depend on us for the independent, fact-based journalism we provide,” Lansing added on Wednesday. “NPR stands for freedom of speech and holding the powerful accountable. It is unacceptable for Twitter to label us this way. A vigorous, vibrant free press is essential to the health of our democracy.” When questioned about the label during the daily press briefing, White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre said she wouldn’t comment on “Twitter’s rules,” but came to NPR’s aid. “Social media companies make their own independent decisions about content rules, so I won’t comment on Twitter’s rules,” Jean-Pierre, adding “more broadly, I’ll say there’s no doubt of the independence of NPR’s journalists.”

Twitter pulls check mark from main New York Times account - Twitter has removed the verification check mark on the main account of The New York Times, one of CEO Elon Musk’s most despised news organizations. The removal comes as many of Twitter’s high-profile users are bracing for the loss of the blue check marks that helped verify their identity and distinguish them from impostors on the social media platform.Musk, who owns Twitter, set a deadline of Saturday for verified users to buy a premium Twitter subscription or lose the checks on their profiles. The Times said in a story Thursday that it would not pay Twitter for verification of its institutional accounts.Early Sunday, Musk tweeted that the Times’ check mark would be removed. Later he posted disparaging remarks about the newspaper, which has aggressively reported on Twitter and on flaws with partially automated driving systems at Tesla, the electric car company, which he also runs. Other Times accounts such as its business news and opinion pages still had either blue or gold check marks on Sunday, as did multiple reporters for the news organization.“We aren’t planning to pay the monthly fee for check mark status for our institutional Twitter accounts,” the Times said in a statement Sunday. “We also will not reimburse reporters for Twitter Blue for personal accounts, except in rare instances where this status would be essential for reporting purposes,” the newspaper said in a statement Sunday. The Associated Press, which has said it also will not pay for the check marks, still had them on its accounts at midday Sunday.Twitter did not answer emailed questions Sunday about the removal of The New York Times check mark.The costs of keeping the check marks ranges from $8 a month for individual web users to a starting price of $1,000 monthly to verify an organization, plus $50 monthly for each affiliate or employee account. Twitter does not verify the individual accounts to ensure they are who they say they are, as was the case with the previous blue check doled out to public figures and others during the platform’s pre-Musk administration.While the cost of Twitter Blue subscriptions might seem like nothing for Twitter’s most famous commentators, celebrity users from basketball star LeBron James to Star Trek’s William Shatner have balked at joining. Seinfeld actor Jason Alexander pledged to leave the platform if Musk takes his blue check away.

Dogecoin Rallies After Elon Musk Makes It Twitter’s New Logo - Dogecoin prices tore higher Tuesday after Elon Musk’s Twitter made a Shiba Inu dog, the symbol of the meme cryptocurrency, the main logo for the social media platform’s homepage. There’s a rational bull case for the memecoin.The price of Dogecoin has jumped 30% over the past 24 hours, spiking after Twitter replaced its iconic blue bird logo with a cartoon Shiba Inu dog. Dogecoin was outperforming Bitcoin and most other digital assets.

Satoshi's Original Bitcoin White Paper Is Hidden In Every Copy Of Mac OS -- In yet another way Bitcoin is being tethered to modern day infrastructure, it was reported yesterday that the original Bitcoin whitepaper - authored by Satoshi Nakamoto and laying out the fundamentals of the world's most well known cryptocurrency - has been included in every copy of Mac OS since 2018. The revelation was made by blogger Andy Baio, who wrote yesterday that he had "discovered" the hidden gem while attempting to fix his printer. He then asked "over a dozen Mac-using friends to confirm" what he had found, and they did. He wrote that the white paper was "found in every version of macOS from Mojave (10.14.0) to the current version, Ventura (13.3), but isn’t in High Sierra (10.13) or earlier." He then offered up directions on how Mac users could check for themselves: "If you’re on a Mac, open a Terminal and type the following command: open /System/Library/Image\ Capture/Devices/VirtualScanner.app/Contents/Resources/simpledoc.pdf" He says that the white paper should "immediately open" for those using Mac OS 10.14 or later. Baio also laid out how to find the paper for those that aren't comfortable using Terminal: "If you’re not comfortable with Terminal, open Finder and click on Macintosh HD, then open the System→Library→Image Capture→Devices folder. Control-click on VirtualScanner.app and Show Package Contents, open the Contents→Resources folder inside, then open simpledoc.pdf." He fails to arrive at exactly why the document was used, though one Mac user guessed that it may help power the "Import from iPhone" feature. Baio guesses that it could have been used simply because it's "just a convenient, lightweight multipage PDF for testing purposes" and perhaps wasn't meant to be seen by end users. Though it hasn't been confirmed as an official "Easter Egg" Apple was one of the original companies to include quaint secrets and hidden gems in its operating systems throughout the years.

Number of Crypto Hacks, Scams Jumped 192% Year-Over-Year, Reports Immunefi - The number of attacks in the crypto industry has risen 192% year-over-year from 25 to 73 this past quarter, per research from Immunefi.Despite this hefty rise, the total amount of money lost is actually down by 64.4%—likely due to market conditions.Immunefi assessed the total amount of crypto funds lost by the community due to hacks and scams by reviewing, validating, and classifying publicly available data. They have been conducting similar reports since 2021.Crypto losses fall into two categories in this report: losses that are the result of a contract flaw, known as a hack or exploit; or losses caused by human behavior such as a rug pull, scam, or fraud. Another key insight the study revealed was that the BNB Chain was the prime target for exploits and scams. In fact, Immunefi reports that 73.3% of all rug pulls that the security firm surveyed occurred on the BNB Chain.A rug pull refers to instances when a project raises funds, for example, for a new token orNFT collection, promising certain benefits to users, but then the developers abandon the project and fail to deliver the promised benefits, but retain the buyers' funds."BNB Chain still has a serious issue with developers using forked code," Immunfi’s triaging team lead Adrian Hetman Tech said in the report. "Its community lacks a security-first approach and attracts many users looking for a quick way to earn money. That's why we continue to see the biggest number of exploits and rug pulls in this ecosystem."A total of around $440 million were stolen in Q1 2023 but luckily 40.5% of that was recovered through two specific instances Euler Finance and SperaxUSD.This figure is likely higher now that the Euler attacker has officially returned all funds as of April 3.Hacks were the predominant cause of losses at 95.7%, in comparison to fraud, scams, and rug pulls which amount to only 4.3%.

Small banks and fintechs give feedback on CFPB data-sharing rules --The CFPB has released a report summarizing feedback small banks and fintechs have given it about data-sharing issues. This is the latest step in a process that has been underway for more than a decade. It was set in motion by the Dodd-Frank Act of 2010, which required the CFPB to come up with rules governing third-party access to consumer banking data. The agency has said it's working on rules that would govern what data should be shared freely between banks and fintechs and how that should be done. The report the CFPB released Monday is the result of a different act of Congress: the Small Business Regulatory Enforcement Fairness Act of 1996, which requires government agencies to consult with representatives of small entities likely to be affected directly by proposed rules and get their feedback on them. Data sharing has been a cause of friction for years. In the earlier days of the fintech movement, fintechs themselves and then data aggregators like Intuit and Plaid began digging under the moats banks put around their customer data and siphoning out that data to do things like qualify customers for credit. They did this by getting consumers to share their online banking usernames and passwords, logging in on their behalf and copying and pasting account data. In 2015, a feud erupted when some fintechs publicly accused banks of blocking their attempts to screen-scrape customers' bank account data. The banks countered that the data aggregators were choking their servers and triggering fraud alerts with their high volumes of unnatural behavior, and that they didn't want their customers giving out online banking credentials to outsiders in the first place. Since then, major data aggregators like Plaid and Finicity have signed agreements with many banks through which they share customers' data through application programming interfaces.But problems and disagreements persist. For one thing, not every bank has the budget and staff to create and maintain APIs. In its report, the CFPB estimated that it would cost a bank $216,000 to $432,000 to create a data access portal, with ongoing staffing costs of $42,000 to $83,000.The cost is actually much higher, wrote two executives of New Market Bank, a community bank in Lakeville, Minnesota. Anita Drentlaw, CEO, CFO and president, and Jeff Jacobson, vice president and compliance officer, said they would first have to switch out the bank's core processor, which would cost them more than $250,000.Then creating a data portal that would meet the CFPB's proposed data-sharing rules would take about four to seven years and would cost more than $500,000, the bankers said.

Signature's Signet Provided Path for Tether Holders — Tether Holdings Ltd. doesn't have direct access to the US banking system, but for a while it found at least one pathway: through Signature Bank. Tether instructed crypto clients to pay for its stablecoins by sending dollars to its Bahamas-based banking partner Capital Union Bank Ltd. via Signature's Signet payments platform, according to people with knowledge of the situation. While it's unclear when the setup started, it was in place when Signature Bank was seized by regulators last month, said the people, asking not to be identified because the information isn't public. The arrangement underscores the difficulty crypto firms have had accessing a reluctant US banking system, even before Signature and crypto-friendly bank Silvergate Capital Corp. collapsed in March. A slew of blowups and general volatility have kept mainstream banks on the sidelines, prompting crypto firms to hunt for alternatives at smaller, more willing lenders. The offshore stablecoin provider has never been sanctioned, and therefore doing business with the firm wouldn't be illegal, according to Alma Angotti, who held senior enforcement positions with the Securities and Exchange Commission and Treasury Department and is now a partner at the consulting firm Guidehouse. Still, banks are under regulatory expectations to know who's accessing their products and services, she said. If Signature knew about and allowed the arrangement, that may speak to a high risk appetite, Angotti said. "They may well have known and decided this is less risky than opening up an account for Tether directly."

Signature Bank Insiders Sold $100 Million in Stock During Crypto Surge Insiders at collapsed Signature Bank sold more than $100 million of shares in the years after the bank pivoted to attract cryptocurrency companies and became a stock-market darling, according to a Wall Street Journal analysis. Sales over the past three years by the bank’s chairman, its former chief executive officer and his successor accounted for about half of the amount sold, according to the Journal’s analysis of company filings. All three served on the board committee tasked with overseeing the bank’s risk profile over the past year.

FDIC sets a framework for selling off Signature's remaining loans | American Banker— The Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. announced on Monday it would offer up approximately $60 billion in loans from Signature Bank for sale after liquidity concerns caused regulators to shut down the New York firm last month."The portfolio is comprised primarily of commercial real estate (CRE) loans, commercial loans and a smaller pool of single–family residential loans. The CRE loans include a concentration of multifamily properties, primarily located in New York City," the agencyannounced in a press release.The agency made it clear it was paying particular attention to the commercial real estate loans secured by rent-stabilized or rent-controlled multifamily residences as they are an important source of affordable housing in New York City."The FDIC has a statutory obligation, among other factors, to maximize the preservation of the availability and affordability of residential real property for low- and moderate-income individuals," FDIC said in the release.The agency says it plans to reach out to state and local government entities, as well as community-based organizations, to inform them of their efforts and to seek local input as the agency establishes a marketing and disposition strategy.Following the New York-based bank's failure in March, the FDIC sold most of Signature's deposits and some of its loans to Flagstar Bank. The deal with Flagstar left out $4 billion of deposits related to Signature Bank's digital banking business, and the now up-for-sale $60 billion loan portfolio. Industry experts have noted that to prioritize swift sale, the agency left out such assets which presented heightened liability or loss risks to an acquiring institution. The composition of the $60 billion portfolio explains in part why the agency and Flagstar left those assets out of its initial sale. Commercial real estate loans have been viewed with increasing skepticism by banks and regulators amid concerns that sluggish return-to-work practices could lead to delinquencies on loans for office space and retail.This announcement comes after a hearing of the U.S. House Financial Services Committee in late March shed light on the FDIC's ongoing receivership activities. FDIC Chairman Martin Gruenberg indicated the agency would return the approximately $4 billion in deposits linked to Signature Bank's digital asset banking enterprise to customers by early April. Gruenberg also stated that Signet, Signature's payments platform, was also currently being marketed to potential buyers.

DeFi needs to comply with anti-money laundering rules, U.S. Treasury says -Decentralized financial transactions, including those done with virtual currencies, need to comply with anti-money laundering and sanctions laws, the US Treasury Department said in a new report. The 39-page report, which was commissioned by the Biden administration, concludes there are several risks associated with DeFi technology, which has no exact definition but includes self-executing transactions between two or more people based on the same blockchain technology that underpins cryptocurrencies. Those risks include abuse by "ransomware cybercriminals, thieves, scammers, and Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) cyber actors," according to Treasury. The report issued Thursday comes as the U.S. and other countries are grappling with how they should regulate cryptocurrencies and virtual assets. It recommends stricter rules for the technology and advises firms that they are required to follow already-established laws concerning money laundering and terrorist financing. Many institutions and users don't do so, the report found. "Capturing the potential benefits associated with DeFi services requires addressing these risks," Brian Nelson, the Treasury undersecretary for Terrorism and Financial Intelligence, said in a statement. "The private sector should use the findings of this assessment to inform their own risk mitigation strategies and to take clear steps, in line with AML/CFT regulations and sanctions obligations, to prevent illicit actors from abusing DeFi services." AML/CFT refers to regulations on anti-money laundering and combating the financing of terrorism. The report's findings, which recommend some changes to the law, come as the Biden administration is considering a broader regulatory framework for cryptocurrencies and other forms of payment conducted with blockchain technology. The administration in September called on the Securities and Exchange Commission and other regulators to "aggressively pursue investigations and enforcement actions against unlawful practices." Alex Zerden, a former Treasury official who advises cryptocurrency firms on their illicit-finance risks, said that while the broader regulation of digital assets remains a divisive legal and legislative issue, Treasury has been attempting to settle some open questions about the technology with guidance and reports like the one issued Thursday. "Treasury remains consistent in identifying activities that are subject to AML/CFT requirements, regardless of what the activities are called," Zerden said.

Toomey: Fed "wildly mischaracterized" master account law for own gain - Last year, then-Sen. Pat Toomey inserted a section into the defense spending bill to hold the Federal Reserve in check. Instead, the central bank says, the new law bolstered its authorities. Toomey's add-on to the National Defense Authorization Act, or NDAA, requires the Fed tocreate and maintain a database of which institutions have so-called master accounts — which provide access to the Fed's payments system and other services — as well as those that have applied for them and the status of those applications. Last week, the Fed cited that legislation multiple times in its motion to dismiss a lawsuit brought against it by Cheyenne, Wyoming-based Custodia Bank over its failed master account bid. According to court filings, language in the provision solidified the Fed's arguments that it has the right to block certain banks from getting master accounts and that the decision about which institutions are granted accounts ultimately rests with the Fed's 12 regional reserve banks.. For Toomey and his former staffers, the issue is particularly frustrating, they say, because Fed staffers consulted on the legislation and insisted on the inclusion of language that was used in their dismissal argument last week. "That looks pretty dirty," said one former Toomey staffer who worked on the bill. "The same lawyers who were part of that conversation with us are now a part of this lawsuit," added another. The staffers were granted anonymity to discuss the matter because they still work on Capitol Hill and sometimes engage with the Fed. The Fed declined to comment on the accusations raised by Toomey and his staffers. Toomey, reached by American Banker this week, said the Fed "wildly mischaracterized" his legislation, which was drafted with the express purpose of bringing more accountability to the Fed and its handling of master accounts, which he views as a public good. The language of the legislation, Toomey said, does nothing to grant or affirm any powers or authorities for the Fed, but rather creates transparency around a subject that the central bank has historically kept closely held. "I don't like to speculate about motives," Toomey said. "But it's pretty disturbing when you look at the simple facts and what they're arguing now."

Bank failure fallout is far from over, lawmakers say Stocks were up Monday morning as the latest failures in the financial sector receded further in the market’s rearview mirror. But lawmakers in both parties are saying additional congressional action on the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank — including a subpoena of former CEO Greg Becker — is necessary. “I certainly think the CEO and the leadership of SVB should be subpoenaed. If you look at their stock transactions, these guys offloaded a lot of worthless equity,” Sen. J.D. Vance (R-Ohio) told The Hill on Thursday before lawmakers headed out for two weeks of district work. “They had to know it was worthless. They made off like bandits, but of course the American taxpayer got stuck with the bill,” he said. “If we subpoena them, and I hope that we will subpoena them, I expect they’ll show up,” Vance said. “I suspect the SVB bailout and crisis is going to be a main focus in April and May.” Senate Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs Committee Chairman Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio) speaks with Sen. Tim Scott (R-S.C.). Becker sold more than $3.5 million in SVB stock 11 days before his bank was shuttered by U.S. banking authorities, according to a Securities and Exchange Commission filing. Two days later, Treasury officials announced that depositors at the bank would be bailed out by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) at levels well above the $250,000 insurance cap, in some cases into the billions of dollars. U.S. authorities said they did this because they said the failure of SVB, along with the cryptocurrency-focused Signature Bank, presented a “systemic risk” to other U.S. banks that could lead to additional bank failures. But Becker himself argued against the characterization of his bank as systemically important in 2015 in order to push back against Dodd-Frank regulations that were eventually rolled back in 2018. Some Democrats and supporters of stricter bank rules believe the loosened regulations could have helped stave off SVB’s failure. Rollback blowback: Yellen says Trump administration ‘decimated’ financial oversight Becker also argued it wasn’t SVB’s size that should exempt it from a systemic risk classification, but rather its business model and inherent risk profile. He added that SVB had invested in “risk systems,” hired additional “highly skilled risk professionals” and set up an independent “risk committee” on its board of directors — none of which proved to be helpful in averting the bank’s eventual collapse. “I think that Silicon Valley Bank is unique in the banking system,” Banking Committee member Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) told The Hill Thursday. “Their sheer size put out ripple effects, but I think we saw a lot of that stress play out the week after.”

Pentagon Tries to Cast Bank Runs as National Security Threat --THE NEXT TIME banks need a bailout, they’ll have a new argument for why it’s necessary: national security.In recent months, the Pentagon has moved to provide loans, guarantees, and other financial instruments to technology companies it considers crucial to national security — a step beyond the grants and contracts it normally employs. So when Silicon Valley Bank threatened to fail in March following a bank run, the defense agency advocated for government intervention to insure the investments. The Pentagon had even scrambled to prepare multiple plans to get cash to affected companies if necessary, reporting by Defense One revealed.Their interest in Silicon Valley Bank stems from the Pentagon’s brand-new office, the Office of Strategic Capital. According to the Wall Street Journal, the secretary of defense established the OSC in December specifically to counteract the investment power of adversaries like China in U.S. technologies, and to secure separate funding for companies whose products are considered vital to national security. It enjoys special authority to use loans and guarantees not normally available to the Defense Department to attract private investment in technology.The full extent of OSC’s authorities has not yet been determined, as its charter is still being drafted, an OSC official not authorized to speak publicly told The Intercept. OSC’s website identifies its mission as twofold: first, identifying critical technology areas, and second, funding those investments using investment tools. “These financial tools are new to the Department and will be complementary to ongoing technology innovation efforts,” the agency’s mission states.OSC is so new that it does not yet have its own budget, but President Joe Biden recently requested $115 million in funding. According to Defense One, the Pentagon worried about supply chain disruption and startups needing to stop work. But although SVB’s clients included tech startups, The Intercept was not able to identify specific Pentagon contractors whose viability might have been at risk. Major defense contractors like Northrop Grumman, Lockheed Martin, and Boeing gave no public indication that they had any cash in SVB. Instead, it appears the Defense Department wanted to ensure that the entire venture capital system did not suffer a blow. It was an “opportunity to really get serious about growing that connective tissue between the national security enterprise and the commercial capital markets … and show that we’re good and sophisticated partners,” said Michael Madsen, acting director of the Pentagon’s Defense Innovation Unit, at a Reagan Institute event, as noted by Defense One.“I know of no precedent for DoD to invest in the financial system itself or to bail out financial institutions in any way,” Gordon Adams, a former associate director for national security programs at the Office of Management and Budget and professor emeritus at American University, told The Intercept.THE NATIONAL SECURITY ARGUMENT for bailout, notably, found an influential friend in the Senate. As the Biden administration intervened to protect Silicon Valley Bank depositors on March 12, Sen. Mark Warner, D-Va., who chairs the powerful Senate Intelligence Committee and also sits on the Banking Committee, issued a press release warning that the bank run posed a national security risk.“After an unprecedented and reckless run on Silicon Valley Bank, there were very real risks of instability spreading to other institutions and undermining our national security and technology innovation system,” the statement said. Warner — the only member of Congress to have publicly tied SVB to national security — has received significant contributions from the financial sector, including maxed out donations from SVB’s super PAC.“When our financial system is under assault, that is a national security issue,” Warner told The Intercept, adding that he also had concerns about “deepfakes”: doctored videos purporting to be real videos of real people. “If you see adversaries potentially being able to use, and I’m not suggesting this, I’m going to ask this question, but I’ve been worried about deepfakes in the system for awhile,” he said. It was not clear how deepfakes related to SVB; when asked to clarify, Valeria Rivadeneira, a spokesperson for Warner, did not respond. But “deepfakes” are often used as a stand-in for the possible threat posed by artificial intelligence and disinformation.

Silicon Valley Bank’s risk model flashed red. So its executives changed it. Flush with cash from a booming tech industry, Silicon Valley Bank executives embarked on a strategy in 2020 to juice profits that quickly triggered an internal alarm.In buying longer-term investments that paid more interest, SVB had fallen out of compliance with a key risk metric. An internal model showed that higher interest rates could have a devastating impact on the bank's future earnings, according to two former employees familiar with the modeling who spoke on the condition of anonymity to describe confidential deliberations.Instead of heeding that warning - and over the concerns of some staffers - SVB executives simply changed the model's assumptions, according to the former employees and securities filings. The tweaks, which have not been previously reported, initially predicted that rising interest rates would have minimal impact.The new assumptions validated SVB's profit-driven strategy, but they were profoundly misplaced. Over the past year, interest rates have climbed nearly five percentage points, the fastest pace since the 1980s. Meanwhile, the tech industry has entered a post-pandemic swoon, causing SVB's elite clientele to withdraw cash far faster than bank executives had expected.On March 8, the bank was forced to raise additional cash by selling securities at a $1.8 billion loss. That touched off panic among SVB clients, who staged one of the biggest bank runs in U.S. history. Fanned by social media, depositors tried to withdraw $42 billion in a single day. The next morning, the bank collapsed and federal regulators took control.The episode shows that executives knew early on that higher interest rates could jeopardize the bank's future earnings. Instead of shifting course to mitigate that risk, they doubled down on a strategy to deliver near-term profits, displaying an appetite for risk that set the stage for SVB's stunning meltdown."Management always wanted to tell a growth story," one former employee involved in the bank's risk management said. "Every quarter, there was always this pressure to deliver earnings."The new revelations come as lawmakers and regulators review what a senior Federal Reserve official called a "textbook case of mismanagement" leading to the nation's second-largest bank failure. Much of their focus will turn to the arcane world of managing interest-rate risk.SVB's new projections took effect last year and assumed that cash flow from deposits would stay consistent for longer, softening the projected bite of higher interest rates. Before changing the model, an interest-rate hike of two percentage points would drop a measure of future cash flows by more than 27 percent; afterward, the hit was less than 5 percent, according to the bank's securities filings.Pushing for the change in assumptions was Dan Beck, SVB's chief financial officer, according to one former employee, and it was approved by the bank's Asset Liability Management Committee, which manages interest-rate risk, both former employees said. The change made several mid-level bank officials uncomfortable, one person said, though there was historical data on deposits to support it.

It’s Not Just an SVB Problem: the Systemic Nature of the Bank Regulation Failure - Adam Levitin.A mid-sized regional bank specializing in lending to tech start-ups, crypto companies, or law firms hardly seems of systemic importance, even if its failure would have caused disruption in some industries regionally and might have triggered a cascade of corporate bankruptcies because of large uninsured deposit balances. That sort of collateral damage from a bank failure is unfortunate and painful for those involved, but that's the nature of market discipline. If that's where things ended with Silicon Valley Bank, I suspect regulators would have said too bad, so sad, as they were initially prepared to do. Yet the problem with Silicon Valley Bank's failure was that it had the potential spark for a banking-industry-wide panic, in which depositors pull their funds from smaller banks and move them either to big banks or to money market funds. That sort of panic could have been devastating to small and medium banks, as they would have faced a liquidity crunch that many could not meet...for the very same reason that SVB got into trouble, namely that they are sitting on large unrealized losses on their bond portfolios because they failed to manage interest rate risk appropriately. And if we had a correlated failure of lots of small and medium-sized banks, it would have resulted in serious economic disruption in small business and agricultural lending and a lot more spillover insolvencies of firms that had large uninsured deposits at those banks. That's the systemic risk scenario with SVB, and I suspect that as the weekend after the SVB failure advanced, that's what scared federal bank regulators into guarantying all deposits at SVB and SBNY. But notice the nature of the problem: it wasn't just SVB that mismanaged its interest rate risk. It was lots and lots of other banks. Mismanaging rate risk is a Banking 101 screw-up, but it's also a Bank Regulation 101 screw-up. Rate risk is hardly a novel problem, and it's an easy one to address through derivatives like interest rate swaps, but those eat into profitability. Why bank regulators let rate risk get out of control almost across the board is something Congress needs to understand—I suspect that the story is much like consumer protection violations, which historically were tolerated because they were profitable. This much is clear, however: if regulators had done their job generally, SVB's bank would not have posed systemic risk because there wouldn't have been the possibility of a panic. It would have been a one-off bank failure and nothing more. Regulators should have been on SVB's problems much sooner, but the real regulatory failure was an across-the-board failure to ensure that banks managed their rate risk because that's what set up the panic scenario. Put another way, this isn't just a problem that can be hung on the neck of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. The problem here implicates every federal bank regulator.

Appetite to claw back compensation for failed bank executives grows | American Banker — The idea that regulators need to more sharply punish the executives of failed banks has attracted some powerful promoters in the last few weeks, notably President Joe Biden and a bipartisan group of senators in the Senate Banking Committee. That's traction that the executive compensation issue hasn't seen in years, experts say. In the wake of the Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank failures, a number of reports have pointed to stock sales and bonuses of the executives of both banks that have rankled policymakers and the public, giving both Republican and Democratic lawmakers the political impetus to write and support legislation that would pull those rules back. And while the odds of legislation on anything banking-related passing have seemed long in a divided Congress, the confluence of influential voices pushing for some sort of change could result in actual changes that grant the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. more ability to take back the compensation of those found culpable for a bank failure. There are a number of bills milling around Congress, including one from Senate Banking Committee Chairman Sen. Sherrod Brown, D-Ohio. The bill with the most bipartisan support is one co-sponsored by Democratic Sens. Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts and Catherine Cortez Masto of Nevada, alongside Republican Sens. Josh Hawley of Missouri and Mike Braun of Idaho, which would require that federal regulators claw back all or part of the compensation received by a failed bank executive in the five-year period preceding the failure. "The bills were written with passage in mind," said Bartlett Naylor, financial policy advocate at Public Citizen and a former Senate Banking Committee staffer. Naylor said there's still expected to be debate on whether regulators should have to claw back compensation or will simply have the power to do so. "Some of the Republican staff wants further consideration of clawbacks, so that is likely to be ongoing," he said.

Silicon Valley Bank pledged $11 billion in community benefits. Now what? - Two years ago, community activists were celebrating an $11.2 billion community benefits agreement with SVB Financial Group in conjunction with its purchase of Boston Private Financial Holdings. Following last month's implosion of SVB's banking unit, Silicon Valley Bank, advocates are worried about the disruption and potential loss of the plan, which was set to run through December 2026. They are now applying significant pressure on acquirer First Citizens BancShares to uphold the commitments of the agreement. The question is, will it work? Discussions between Raleigh, North Carolina-based First Citizens and at least three community reinvestment groups began last week, shortly after First Citizens acquired large chunks of Silicon Valley Bank from the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp., which had been operating a "bridge bank" to protect Silicon Valley Bank's depositors until a suitable buyer was found. More detailed meetings between First Citizens and some community groups could take place as early as this week, said Debra Gore-Mann, president and CEO of the Greenlining Institute, a nonprofit in Oakland, California, that helped negotiate SVB's community benefits agreement. The fact that First Citizens is engaged in its own five-year community benefits plan — a $16 billion pledge it made in 2021 as part of its acquisition of CIT — is a good sign, Gore-Mann said. "If you have a [community benefits agreement] sitting in both banks and now they're coming together, it makes sense that [an agreement] survives that process," she said. "Now, is it going to be exactly SVB's plan or will it be a 'First Citizens-plus' plan or is it going to be a new plan?" Still, the fact that the FDIC did not make the implementation of the plan a condition of Silicon Valley Bank's sale to First Citizens disappoints groups such as the California Reinvestment Coalition. In late March, the organization delivered a petition signed by more than 20,000 people urging the FDIC to require that whoever bought Silicon Valley Bank would have to honor the plan. Maxine Waters, the top Democrat on the House Financial Services Committee, made a similar demand. In a March 18 letter to FDIC Chairman Martin Gruenberg, Waters urged the agency "to ensure that the ultimate buyer of SVB maintains the bank's commitments to California communities, especially those who remain historically underserved by the U.S. banking system."

Banks may be using accounting maneuvers to avoid reporting losses -- Banks have been reclassifying their losses to avoid taking steep write-downs that could affect their ability to stay in business, helping them avoid the high-profile banking failures seen in recent weeks. After the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank this month, investors have been questioning the books of banks and finding that some of them reclassified their assets last year from "available for sale" to "held to maturity." Given the stock market losses seen last year as interest rates steadily rose, that allowed them to avoid the steep markdowns that led to the failure of Silicon Valley Bank as the bank had to sell off its Treasury bonds at a lower market value than it had paid. Among the leading banks reclassifying a combined hundreds of billions of dollars in assets last year were Charles Schwab, PNC Financial Services, JPMorgan Chase, Truist Financial, Wells Fargo and US Bancorp, according to the Wall Street Journal. Banks are facing other kinds of risks, however, and the Securities and Exchange Commission has begun to investigate the problems that emerged at SVB, Signature and other financial institutions. Among the questions that have emerged are about the stock sales by some of SVB's top executives only weeks before the bank collapsed, and the role of auditors who gave clean audit opinions only weeks before the demise of both SVB and Signature. SVB CEO Greg Becker sold $3.6 billion in shares only about two weeks before the bank collapsed. The trades were reportedly prescheduled under a rule set up by the SEC, known as Rule 10b5-1, to avoid insider trading. “There's a couple things that the SEC might investigate," said Albany Law School professor Christine Chung, a former lawyer in the SEC's Enforcement Division. "One of them is stock sales by insiders shortly before the bank failed. The timeline on it is interesting. The CEO, for example, put in place a 10b5-1 plan in January of this year. A 10b5-1 plan basically says, 'I'm going to be selling stock on a declared schedule.' The idea is you put that plan in place for insiders because in theory they always have some type of inside information, so what you're trying to do is signal to the market that you're going to be selling this much over this time on this schedule, and then the decision on any individual transaction is out of the hands of the seller. It's a way of basically allowing people to make planned changes to their portfolio holdings in a way that the decision is out of their individual hands." She noted that the SVB executives put in place a 10b5-1 plan in January and then sold the stock. "There's a 30-day cooling off period," she added. "They sold the stock 31 days later, and that ended up being about two weeks before the collapse of the bank. I think the SEC will be looking at the circumstances of the adoption of the plan, what the insiders knew at the time the plan was being adopted, respecting the bank's financial conditions and its risks, and then what they knew when they were in that period when they adopted the plan, and when they're selling, and two weeks later, something happens. So the SEC is going to look at all facts regarding the adoption of that plan, and specifically, what they knew when they were out there trying to raise money to shore up the bank's financials. It's one thing to have a plan in place saying I'm going to be doing this going forward. But this was the first sale under the plan two weeks before the failure of the bank."

US Bank Lending Slumps by Most on Record in Final Weeks of March -- US bank lending contracted by the most on record in the last two weeks of March, indicating a tightening of credit conditions in the wake of several high-profile bank collapses that risks damaging the economy. Commercial bank lending dropped nearly $105 billion in the two weeks ended March 29, the most in Federal Reserve data back to 1973. The more than $45 billion decrease in the latest week was primarily due to a a drop in loans by small banks. The pullback in total lending in the last half of March was broad and included fewer real estate loans, as well as commercial and industrial loans. Friday’s report also showed commercial bank deposits dropped $64.7 billion in the latest week, marking the 10th-straight decrease that mainly reflected a decline at large firms. The slide in lending follows the collapse of several firms including Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank. Economists are closely monitoring the Fed’s so-called H.8 report, which provides an estimated weekly aggregate balance sheet for all commercial banks in the US, to gauge credit conditions. The recent bank failures have complicated the central bank’s efforts to reduce inflation without sending the economy into a recession. On Thursday, the American Bankers Association index of credit conditions fell to the lowest level since the onset of the pandemic, indicating bank economists see credit conditions weakening over the next six months. As a result, banks are likely to become more cautious about extending credit. The banking crisis has made a recession more likely, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s Jamie Dimon. The bank’s chief executive officer said in an annual letter that the failures have “provoked lots of jitters in the market and will clearly cause some tightening of financial conditions as banks and other lenders become more conservative.” The Fed’s report showed that by bank size, lending decreased $23.5 billion at the 25 largest domestically chartered banks in the latest two weeks, and plunged $73.6 billion at smaller commercial banks over the same period. Lending by foreign institutions in the US fell $7.5 billion. The biggest 25 domestic banks account for almost three-fifths of lending, although in some key areas — including commercial real estate — smaller banks are the most important providers of credit.

A Credit Crunch Is Inevitable -Federal Reserve data shows $98 billion of deposits left the banking system in the week after the Silicon Valley Bank collapse. Most of the money went to money-market funds, as the Bloomberg data shows that assets in this class rose by $121 billion in the same period. The data shows the challenges of the banking system in the middle of a confidence crisis. However, as many analysts point out, this is not necessarily the main factor that dictates the risk of a credit crunch. Deposit flight is certainly an important risk. Many regional banks will have to cut lending to families and businesses as deposits shrink, but in the United States bank loans are less than 19% of corporate credit according to the IMF, while in the euro area it is more than 80%. What will generate a credit crunch is the destruction of capital in the asset base of most lenders. The slump in mark-to-market valuations of all asset classes from loans to investments is what will ultimately drive an inevitable credit contraction. Credit standards have tightened significantly already, and the credit impulse of the economy, both in the US and euro area, has deteriorated rapidly, according to the respective Bloomberg indices. Both are below the March 2021 low. We must remember that credit standards’ tightening was already a reality before the Silicon Valley Bank demise. But the reality check of capital destruction in the financial system’s asset base is far from done. Start-ups will most likely see the most severe crunch in financing as the tech bubble burst adds to the asset base capital destruction in private equity and venture capital firms, who have delayed all they could the required write-downs and face a sobering reality check. Our internal estimate of capital destruction in the asset base of banks and private equity firms is between a 15% to 25% wipe-out, which is consistent with the average decline in market value over the October 2021- March 2023 period. Real estate investments all over the US and Europe require a significant re-evaluation now that real estate has underperformed the market for eighteen months, according to Morgan Stanley. The optimistic valuations of real estate and corporate investments in banks’ balance sheets will require a significant analysis and subsequent write-off that leads to much tighter credit standards and stringent investment conditions. Capital destruction tends to be forgotten in a world used to constant central bank easing, but it is likely to be the main source of strangling of credit to families and businesses as banks and private equity firms deal with the loss of value and weakening earnings and cash flow of investments made at elevated valuations and unreasonable prices. The main challenge this time is that capital destruction is happening in almost every part of the lenders’ asset base, from the allegedly low-risk part, sovereign bond portfolios, to the aggressively priced investments in volatile businesses and bull-market valuations of corporate and venture capital investments. The profitable asset part of banks will likely require important provisions for non-performing loans, a subject that was raised by the Federal Reserve and the ECB months before the banking crisis. Furthermore, as governments will blame the recent collapses on lack of regulation again, it is extremely likely that new rules will be imposed demanding banks to book large provisions recognising losses on the loan book ahead of time.

Bank crisis puts money market funds back in the spotlight - Deposit flows after a pair of high-profile bank failures last month have renewed a debate about the Federal Reserve's support of money market funds and whether that support harms banks. Between March 8 and March 22, total commercial bank deposits declined by $300 billion, according to Fed data. During that same period, money market funds ticked up $238 billion. It is unclear how many of those deposits went directly from banks to money market funds, but some in and around the banking sector worry that the Fed's Overnight Reverse Repurchase Program has made it easier for funds to move in that direction. Also known as the ON RRP, the facility allows money market funds and other entities to purchase securities from the Fed and sell them back the next day at a fixed, higher price. The Fed created the ON RRP facility in 2013. The idea behind it was to create a channel through which the central bank could convey its monetary policy to market participants other than banks. It was conceived as the Fed was preparing to raise interest rates from their lower bound, where they had been since 2008. Money market funds were not the intended beneficiary of the program, but they have taken advantage of it more than almost any other type of counterparty. Between March 8 and March 22, total ON RRP usage — which includes activity by government-sponsored entities and some banks — only increased by $47 billion. But since March 2021, the facility has swollen from zero to roughly $2.2 trillion per day, and has remained at that level since last June. Some of the sharpest criticism of the facilities growth has come from the Bank Policy Institute, a bank lobbying organization, which accused the Fed last week of "abetting a draining of deposits from banks." Policy experts outside the banking industry also say the Fed's engagement with money market funds, through both its ON RRP facility and other actions, have given those funds advantages over banks, ones that do not always benefit the broader economy. "The whole [ON RRP] facility should be unwound," Karen Petrou, managing partner of Federal Financial Analytics, said. "Similarly, the Fed should stop sitting on trillions in bank deposits. It's a huge distortion."

After banking crisis, unsecured commercial paper market shows cracks --Interest rates on unsecured commercial paper, an important source of short-term funding for banks, have reached the highest levels since the Great Recession, raising the possibility of a credit crunch and further regulatory intervention. Rates for 90-day unsecured commercial paper maturities topped 5% on March 30 for the first time since September 2007, according to data from the Federal Reserve. The data also shows banks moving towards shorter obligations to obtain discounts from money-market investors hesitant to purchase longer-dated issuances. Average monthly issuances in March rose 11% compared to the end of January. During the same period, one-to-four day issuances rose 27% and maturities dated more than 10 days fell 87%. Overall, the $568.2 billion unsecured commercial paper market has shrunk 15% since the beginning of this year, according to the Fed's data. Unsecured issuances account for half of the $1.1 trillion U.S. commercial paper market. Asset-backed and non-financial securities sold by corporations comprise around a quarter of the market each. U.S.-based subsidiaries of foreign banks are the primary issuers of unsecured commercial paper, selling debt obligations based on their creditworthiness to meet near-term funding requirements. Maturities can extend up to 270 days, but most become due within three months. While unsecured commercial paper rates have increased in lockstep with the Fed's interest-rate hikes to counteract inflation, last week's 15-year high ended a month of market volatility that has sparked concerns about the potential for a banking crisis. After Silicon Valley Bank's collapse last month, which led regulators to take over Signature Bank in the U.S. and forced a sale of Credit Suisse in Europe, investors will seek to limit risks by shortening the tenors they're willing to purchase, according to Stephany Bushweller, a managing director leading commercial paper trading at MUFG Securities Americas. "When in doubt, go short," Bushweller said during an interview. "We certainly saw that throughout March." Last month, as markets absorbed the failures of SVB and Credit Suisse, one-to-four day trades increased from 84% of total unsecured issuances at the beginning of March to 93% during the last week. Rates on the same maturities rose 15 basis points to 4.8% while 90-day rates increased 23 basis points to 4.97%. "In times of market stress, the short end of the curve tends to get shorter. The market has remained liquid but at a price," Bushweller said. "We were hoping that market instability was going to be over, but I don't think it's quite over yet."

Bank deposits edge up after record outflows, Fed data shows (Reuters) - Deposits at U.S. commercial banks rose near the end of March for the first time in about a month, showing signs of stabilizing after the two largest bank failures since the financial crisis rocked the banking system and rattled depositors. Federal Reserve data released on Friday showed deposits at all commercial banks rose to $17.35 trillion in the week ended March 29, on a nonseasonally adjusted basis, from a downwardly revised $17.31 trillion a week earlier. It was the first increase since the start of March and marked an end, for the moment, to a record flight of deposits triggered by the collapses of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank toward the middle of last month. The second and third largest bank failures in U.S. history forced federal regulators to guarantee all deposits at both institutions and prompted the Fed to take emergency actions to restore confidence in the banking system. Deposits rose at both the largest 25 banks by assets and at small and mid-sized banks as well. Small banks had been particularly hard hit by deposit outflows after the back-to-back failures, with some depositors shifting cash to larger institutions on concern that any funds in excess of the $250,000 per depositor federal insurance limit might be at risk. After more than a year of sharp interest rate increases by the Fed designed to slow the economy in order to cool inflation, last month's banking turmoil has exacerbated worries that the central bank's aggressive tightening may trigger a recession. Economists and policymakers are watching the Fed's weekly snapshot of the financial condition of the country's banks closely for signs deposit flight has run its course. They are watching just as closely for indications that lenders might start to rein in credit as a result, an action that could accelerate the onset of a economic slowdown or make it worse. Indeed, overall credit from U.S. banks did decline by a record of more than $120 billion in the latest week, on a nonseasonally adjusted basis, but that was largely the result of banks divesting $87 billion in securities to nonbanks, such as hedgefunds. The Fed said banks had offloaded that amount of assets in each of the two latest weeks, most of it coming in the form of Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities. The moves coincided with recent sales of various assets of the two failed banks under the direction of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp, but the Fed did not specify if that was the impetus for the divestitures. At the same time, however, lending to businesses and consumers by banks held steady with $12.07 trillion in loans outstanding as the month neared its end, up fractionally from a week earlier. While loans for both commercial and residential real estate, and for commercial and industrial loans, a benchmark for business credit, each fell marginally, the declines were offset by a pickup in consumer loans led by credit card balances.

Congress Sweats the Small Stuff as Four Wall Street Mega Banks Have a Combined $3.3 Trillion in Uninsured Deposits --By Pam and Russ Martens: -On Tuesday, Martin Gruenberg, the Chair of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), the federal agency that serves as both a bank regulator and the overseer of the federal insurance program for U.S. bank deposits, testified before the Senate Banking Committee. The dangers of U.S. banks holding large amounts of uninsured deposits came up repeatedly in his testimony. For example, Gruenberg’s written testimony included these details about the ongoing banking crisis: “…on Friday, March 10, a number of institutions with large amounts of uninsured deposits reported that depositors had begun to withdraw their funds.”And this:“The FDIC estimates that the cost to the DIF [Deposit Insurance Fund] of resolving SVB [Silicon Valley Bank] to be $20 billion. The FDIC estimates the cost of resolving Signature Bank to be $2.5 billion. Of the estimated loss amounts, approximately 88 percent, or $18 billion, is attributable to the cost of covering uninsured deposits at SVB…”Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank represented the second and third largest bank failures, respectively, in U.S. history. (The largest was Washington Mutual, which failed during the 2008 financial crisis.) But in terms of the size of their deposits, we are talking about minnows compared to the deposit exposure at the whale banks on Wall Street.As of December 31, 2022, Silicon Valley Bank had $175 billion in deposits. On the same date, Signature Bank held $88.6 billion in deposits. Now compare that to the whales on Wall Street: As of December 31, 2022, this is where deposits stood at the four largest banks in the U.S. – all of which also have large risk exposure from their extensive trading operations on Wall Street: (The data comes from federal regulatory filings known as “call reports.”)

• JPMorgan Chase Bank N.A. held $2.015 trillion in deposits in domestic offices, of which $1.058 trillion were uninsured.
• Bank of America held $1.9 trillion in deposits in domestic offices, of which $909.26 billion were uninsured.
• Wells Fargo held $1.4 trillion in deposits in domestic offices, of which $721.1 billion were uninsured.
• Citibank N.A. (parent, Citigroup) held $777 billion in deposits in domestic offices, of which $598.2 billion was uninsured. But…wait for it…Citibank also held a staggering $622.607 billion in deposits in foreign offices – of which, potentially, nothing was insured according to current law and rulemaking. That would bring total deposits at Citibank in both domestic and foreign offices to $1.4 trillion with potentially only $178.8 billion FDIC insured – or 13 percent. (We have sought clarification on this from the FDIC and will update this article when we receive a response.)

The Deposit Insurance Fund (DIF) protects depositors in U.S.-based federally-insured banks up to $250,000 per depositor, per bank. It is funded primarily through quarterly assessments on insured banks. Ultimately, “FDIC insurance is backed by the full faith and credit of the United States government.” No one has ever lost a dime in an FDIC-protected deposit in the U.S.According to the FDIC, the Deposit Insurance Fund (DIF) held $128.2 billion as of December 31, 2022 while the total of domestic deposits tallied up to $17.7 trillion.This would not be the first time that Citigroup’s Citibank has put a gun to the taxpayers’ head with the reckless way it does business. Sheila Bair was the Chair of the FDIC during the 2008 financial crisis. In her 2012 book, Bull by the Horns, Bair makes an astonishing revelation about Citigroup. Despite the trillions of dollars in revolving loans and capital infusions used to prop up Citigroup during the 2007 to 2010 financial crisis, its federally-insured commercial bank, Citibank, actually held only $125 billion in U.S. insured deposits according to Bair.As it turns out, the bulk of Citibank’s deposits were foreign and a large part of those deposits were not insured or had low insurance amounts. Had this foreign money decided to run for the exits on fear of a Citigroup collapse, the FDIC might have been looking at just a $125 billion problem but the rest of the financial system was looking at $2 trillion on the books of Citigroup, $1 trillion off the books of Citigroup, and trillions of dollars of derivative counterparty agreements.

After Being Criminally Charged for Rigging Precious Metals, JPMorgan Chase Controls 53 Percent of All Precious Metals Contracts Held by Banks -By Pam and Russ Martens - According to the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), there were 4,706 federally-insured banks and savings associations in the U.S. as of December 31, 2022. Of those, according to the quarterly report released last Friday from the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC), a little less than one-quarter found a reason to engage in derivative trading activities.As of December 31, 2022, just 1,139 FDIC-insured commercial banks and savings associations reported trading of derivatives in the fourth quarter of 2022, according to the OCC. Ostensibly, instead of running a derivatives casino, the other three-quarters of taxpayer-subsidized banks were doing what taxpayers want federally-insured banks to do: make business loans; provide affordable mortgage loans to homebuyers; provide checking accounts devoid of hacking, identity theft and predatory overdraft fees; and not blow up the bank by getting in bed with derivatives, crypto or dodgy Wall Street IPOs.As it does each quarter, the OCC report rang this alarm bell:“A small group of large financial institutions continues to dominate trading and derivatives activity in the U.S. commercial banking system. During the fourth quarter of 2022, four large commercial banks represented 88.2 percent of the total banking industry notional amounts [of derivatives] and 62.5 percent of industry net current credit exposure (NCCE).”Those four banks are Goldman Sachs Bank USA with $52.6 trillion in notional (face amount) derivatives exposure; JPMorgan Chase Bank N.A. with $49.5 trillion in notional derivatives exposure; Citigroup’s Citibank with $47 trillion in notional derivatives exposure; and Bank of America with $19.4 trillion in notional derivatives exposure. One area that particularly stands out in the current OCC report is data showing JPMorgan Chase Bank N.A. held $200.12 billion in precious metals derivative contracts at its federally-insured bank as of December 31, 2022, versus a total of $378.12 billion for all banks in the U.S. holding derivatives. That’s one bank holding53 percent of all precious metals contracts in the U.S. banking system. (See Table 21 on page 26 of the OCC report.)And there’s no guarantee that the OCC report captures the full picture of this highly concentrated derivatives market. (See our report: Wall Street Banks Are Dangerously Evading U.S. Derivatives Rules by Making Trades at Foreign Subsidiaries.) It is hard to understate the regulatory failure of allowing JPMorgan Chase to continue to have this outsized presence in the precious metals derivatives market.On September 29, 2020, the U.S. Department of Justice charged JPMorgan Chase with rigging the precious metals market and hit it with a criminal felony count for its conduct, to which it admitted. According to the Justice Department, the rigging occurred for more than eight years, from March of 2008 to August of 2016, and involved “tens of thousands” of incidents. The Justice Department wrote that traders at JPMorgan Chase:“…knowingly and intentionally placed orders to buy and sell precious metals futures contracts with the intent to cancel those orders before execution (‘Deceptive PM [Precious Metals] Orders’), including in an attempt to profit by deceiving other market participants through false and fraudulent pretenses and representations concerning the existence of genuine supply and demand for precious metals futures contracts. By placing Deceptive PM Orders, the Subject PM Traders intended to inject false and misleading information about the genuine supply and demand for precious metals futures contracts into the markets, and to deceive other participants in those markets into believing something untrue, namely that the visible order book accurately reflected market-based forces of supply and demand. This false and misleading information was intended to, and at times did, trick other market participants, including competitor financial institutions and proprietary traders, into reacting to the apparent change and imbalance in supply and demand by buying and selling precious metals futures contracts at quantities, prices, and times that they otherwise likely would not have traded.”The trading conduct in precious metals was so bad at JPMorgan Chase that the Justice Department took the unprecedented step of charging some of the precious metals traders involved under the Racketeer Influenced and Corrupt Organizations Act (RICO), a statute typically reserved for organized crime figures.

New CFPB rule could raise costs for credit unions - Credit unions are threatening to retreat from originating small-business loans due to the cost of complying with the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau's final data collection rule. The CFPB's rule requires that financial institutions collect and report data on small-business lending applicants. Data on application volumes and types of credit made to women and minority-owned small businesses will be used to enforce fair lending law. The rule, issued March 30, will go into effect for the largest lenders starting in September 2024. The small-business data collection rule capped an arduous 13-year journey that saw little movement until a court-ordered settlement reached in the 2019 lawsuit by the California Reinvestment Coalition mandated that the CFPB complete the final rule by March 31. The CFPB declined to comment further before the deadline. "Some financial institutions are going to decide that availing themselves of this rulemaking isn't worth it, and they're gonna withdraw some of their business lending offerings," said Alexander Monterrubio, deputy chief advocacy officer and managing counsel at Credit Union National Association. "But I think we really need to see how the rulemaking ultimately gets implemented to see how that will play out." Phil Sutliff, head of business banking at the $5.6 billion-asset Citadel Credit Union in Exton, Pennsylvania, said he is trying to educate small businesses about the federal requirements and address privacy and security concerns about the data. "The intended outcome of [the rule] is to facilitate fair lending laws and help identify some opportunities for community involvement, which aren't bad goals but it's important to ensure that those goals are met in a way that's fair," Sutliff said. Credit unions, banks and other lenders are required to comply with the rule if they originate at least 100 small -business loans a year, up from 25 loans a year that had been in the 2021 proposal. The bureau also defined a small business as one with gross revenues of under $5 million a year.

CFPB issues policy statement redefining what constitutes 'abusive' - The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau on Monday issued a policy statement redefining what constitutes an "abusive" act or practice, a standard that has vexed banks and financial firms since it was introduced in the Dodd-Frank Act. The policy statement does not impose any new legal requirements but rather provides background information on how the CFPB will exercise its authority going forward. The statement was designed to help firms avoid committing abusive acts or practices and to assist the CFPB and other agencies in identifying wrongdoing. The CFPB has defined abusive conduct as behavior that generally obscures important features of a product or service, or takes unreasonable advantage of a consumer by leveraging certain circumstances such as gaps in a consumer's understanding of the product's terms, or a consumer's reliance on a company to act in their best interest. "It's already the law," said CFPB Director Rohit Chopra, who spoke Monday at a virtual event at the University of California Irvine, where he discussed the policy statement for 50 minutes. "It's important that we not lose sight of the fact that our law reflects our country's values. One way that Congress made a value judgment is by banning conduct that essentially tricks people." Abusive behavior can include "the use of dark patterns, set-up-to-fail business models like those observed before the mortgage crisis, profiteering off captive consumers and kickbacks and self-dealing," the bureau said. The CFPB also said that in the past it has fined companies for abusive conduct without defining it, instead building legal precedent through enforcement actions. The CFPB said it has brought 43 cases for abusive conduct. Chopra described how companies may use "digital dark patterns," which are online tricks or checkboxes that obscure, manipulate consumers "into making choices they otherwise would not have made." "Digital dark patterns are new in the sense that they leverage contemporary technology to confuse people, but ultimately they involve the same type of obscuring that Congress has long been concerned about," he said. "Manipulating people is wrong, whether on paper or through pixels."

Manhattan Office Vacancy Hits Record As Marquee LA Office Tower Sells At 50% Loss While it is common knowledge by now that lower-tier and suburban office markets as entering the nine circles of hell... ... for reasons most recently and succinctly summarized by Chris Whalen... Problem with #CRE goes like this. Occupancy falls, SQFT rental price falls, rent roll falls, then bldg value falls.reserves consumed. Lender seeks more equity to restore 50% LTV. Equity does numbas, walks away.... @blackstone — Richard Christopher Whalen (@rcwhalen) March 31, 2023... and visually by the IMF in this report from 2021... ... many were left with the opinion that the world's top office market remains largely unscathed. Unfortunately, that opinion was wrong: according to the latest report from brokerage Jones Lang LaSalle, which tracks about 470 million square feet (44 million square meters) of New York City offices, found a mere 4.6 million square feet of office space was leased in the first quarter. That means that Manhattan’s office-vacancy rate was at a record high as new developments add even more space to the struggling market. Specifically, 16.1% of space was empty as of the first quarter, with leasing is at its lowest levels since the second quarter of 2021. Other real estate companies found si similar results: Colliers recorded a 16.9% vacancy rate in the fourth quarter and a 17.3% rate in the first quarter of 2021. “You’re having this anemic leasing activity, more space is being added in the form of newly constructed or newly renovated space, but also sublease space continues to pile up,” said Andrew Lim, director of research at JLL. According to the report, while the market was already struggling with excess supply, it was flooded with more than 1.5 million square feet of office space in the first quarter with the completion of 660 Fifth Ave.’s redevelopment. Not all of that space will stay empty as landlord Brookfield Properties has signed leases with finance firms including Macquarie Group. The building - formerly known as the iconic 666 Fifth Ave - and the former home of hedge fund giant Millennium Partners until its recent move to 399 Park, has gained traction after undergoing $400 million in renovations that include a new lobby, elevators and facade. ;

FDIC to take a closer look at property appraisal bias - The Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. will be expanding its examination process of property appraisal matters as part of its supervision of fair lending practices. The renewed focus is outlined in the bank regulator's latest Consumer Compliance Supervisory Highlights report, which is released every spring. The main focus of the shift will be on detecting and rooting out racial bias in appraisals used to inform bank mortgage lending and refinancings. The move comes as discriminatory actions in home valuations have taken center stage for Washington regulators in recent years. In 2021, the White House convened a Property Appraisal and Valuation Equity, or PAVE, task force to study the issue and come up with policy solutions. Last year, that group released their findings and put out an action plan. As part of this enhanced focus on home valuation, the FDIC will keep a closer eye on banks' compliance management systems for appraisals. The agency will also work to develop new training mechanisms for its bank examiners on how to identify instances of bias in appraisal, to ensure they are on high alert for problematic practices. The FDIC has also pledged to incorporate information about appraisal bias in its consumer outreach exercises, including its Smart Money financial education program. This will include information on how to request a reconsideration of value. On the one-year anniversary of the PAVE task force's action plan release last month, FDIC Chair Martin Gruenberg said the FDIC and other government agencies have made strides in addressing issues of bias in appraisal, but it remains a "critically important" issue. "Since the release of the action plan one year ago, FDIC staff have been closely coordinating and collaborating with staff from other PAVE member agencies to fulfill the PAVE action plan's commitments and recommendations," Gruenberg said. "These efforts are helping to shift the public's understanding of appraisal bias from a rare event affecting an occasional homeowner to a significant issue that affects wealth formation and opportunities in minority communities nationwide — the same communities that have suffered historically from discrimination, redlining, and disinvestment." Other agencies involved in the task force have also adapted their policies around appraisals in recent months. In January, the Department of Housing and Urban Development rolled out a new process that will make it easier for borrowers who refinance their homes through the Federal Housing Administration to challenge their appraisals. Last month, the Federal Housing Finance Agency said it would enhance its data offerings on appraisals to identify potential discriminatory trends.

Moody's: Multifamily Demand "Softened notably over the past few quarters" -Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Moody's: Multifamily Demand "Softened notably over the past few quarters" A brief excerpt: The big story here is that demand for apartments has softened recently, rents are falling in some areas, and there are a large number of apartments currently under construction that are expected to be delivered this year.From Moody’s Analytics Senior Economist Lu Chen and economist Nick Luettke: Apartment temporarily oversupplied, Office approaching peak of vacancy, and Retail remained flat The tide has been gradually shifting for the multifamily sector. ... Multifamily demand has softened notably over the past few quarters with net absorption even teasing slightly below zero in the first quarter of 2023. ... Vacancy ticked up 13 basis-point (bps) to end Q1 at 4.71%. This was the biggest jump over the past two years, which pushed the current vacancy over the pre-pandemic level of 4.68%.Compared to year end 2022, rent declines became more widespread in the first quarter, with 60 primary metros recording negative market rent growth ranging from -0.1% to -6.4%....Moody’s Analytics (Reis) reported that the apartment vacancy rate was at 4.7% in Q1 2023, up from 4.6% in Q4 2022, and down from a pandemic peak of 5.4% in both Q1 and Q2 2021.This graph shows the apartment vacancy rate starting in 1980. (Annual rate before 1999, quarterly starting in 1999). Note: Moody’s Analytics is just for large cities. There is more in the article.

Construction Spending Decreased 0.1% in February - From the Census Bureau reported that overall construction spending decreased: Construction spending during February 2023 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $1,844.1 billion, 0.1 percent below the revised January estimate of $1,845.4 billion. The February figure is 5.2 percent above the February 2022 estimate of $1,753.1 billion. Private spending was "virtually unchanged" and public spending decreased: Spending on private construction was at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $1,453.2 billion, virtually unchanged from the revised January estimate of $1,453.6 billion. ... In February, the estimated seasonally adjusted annual rate of public construction spending was $391.0 billion, 0.2 percent below the revised January estimate of $391.8 billion. . This graph shows private residential and nonresidential construction spending, and public spending, since 1993. Note: nominal dollars, not inflation adjusted. Residential (red) spending is 9.8% below the recent peak. Non-residential (blue) spending is at a new peak. Public construction spending is close to the recent peak. The second graph shows the year-over-year change in construction spending. On a year-over-year basis, private residential construction spending is down 5.7%. Non-residential spending is up 19.4% year-over-year. Public spending is up 12.8% year-over-year. This was at consensus expectations of a 0.1% decrease in spending; however, construction spending for the previous two months was revised up.

Update: Framing Lumber Prices Down 63% YoY, Below Pre-Pandemic Levels -- Here is another monthly update on framing lumber prices.This graph shows CME random length framing futures through March 31st. Lumber is currently at $60 per 1000 board feet.This is down from the peak of $1,733, and down 63% from $1008 a year ago. Prices are below the pre-pandemic levels of around $400.There is somewhat of a seasonal demand for lumber, and lumber prices usually peak in April or May.It is unlikely we will see a significant runup in prices this Spring due to the housing slowdown.

Moody's: Office Vacancy Rate Increased in Q1, Mall Vacancy Rate Unchanged -From Moody’s Analytics Senior Economist Lu Chen and economist Nick Luettke: Apartment temporarily oversupplied, Office approaching peak of vacancy, and Retail remained flat: Demand for office space extended its downward trend in Q1 as companies adjusted to uniquely designed hybrid models and strategically consolidated real estate space to improve operating margins. At the national level, more than 5 million square feet (sqft) was released back to the market this quarter. Meanwhile, construction slowed further with just over 3 million sqft of new space delivered in Q1. Vacancy rose to 19.0%, up 20 bps from a quarter-ago due to oversupplied stock and exceeding the pandemic peak of 18.5%. Office vacancies rose for the 5th consecutive quarter, another step closer to its historic peak of 19.3% in 1991. Asking rents increased by 0.4% in Q1 despite the rise in vacancies, likely an outcome of inflationary pressures.The pandemic has accelerated market trends regarding how and where we work. Hybrid models have readily become adopted, though significant portions of the market remain either entirely in person or remote. With individual firms adopting competing models for specific business needs, a universal standard has yet to emerge. 2023 is poised to be a year of adaptation, or even innovation, as firms weigh their choices among location, size, and amenities given increased availability.Moody's reported the office vacancy rate was at 19.0% in Q1 2023, up from 18.8% in Q4 2022, and up from 18.1% in Q1 2022. This graph shows the office vacancy rate starting in 1980 (prior to 1999 the data is annual).The office vacancy rate was elevated prior to the pandemic and moved up during the pandemic.This was the highest vacancy rate for offices since 1992 (following the S&L crisis). NOTE: This says nothing about how many people are in the offices (related to the increase in work-from-home), just whether or not the office space is leased.And from Moody's on Retail: Retail suffered the most when the Great Financial Crisis (GFC) hit in 2008. Oversupply and three years of negative retail net absorption increased the average vacancy from 6-7% to 10-11%. Since then, several factors weakened supply growth: developers became more cautious, demand dampened with the rise of e-commerce, and consumer preferences gradually changed. COVID-19 and the upsurge of remote work exacerbated retail woes, but this shock did not cause a freefall similar to the GFC because the sector was stumbling in the decade leading up to the pandemic. According to the latest Census Advanced Monthly Retail Trade Survey, total sales in February were up 5.4% from the same period a year ago, with food service/drinking places and general merchandise stores enjoying double-digit growth.Supported by resilient consumer spending, neighborhood and community shopping center performance remained stable. However, with consumer confidence index starting to show subtle changes in consumers’ spending plan with less incentive towards service and stationary spending over the next six months, new retail construction and net absorption both came in light for the first quarter of the year. Vacancy flatlined at 10.3% over the past four quarters.Asking/effective rents were up slightly by 0.2%/0.3% in Q4 and remained in the $21/$18-per-sqft range, a level unchanged since 2018.For Neighborhood and Community malls (strip malls), the vacancy rate was 10.3% in Q1 2023, unchanged from 10.3% in Q4 2022, and down from 10.4% in Q1 2022. For strip malls, the vacancy rate peaked during the pandemic at 10.6% in both Q1 and Q2 2021.

Heavy Truck Sales Up 7% Year-over-year in March --The BEA released their estimate of vehicle sales for March this morning.This graph shows heavy truck sales since 1967 using data from the BEA. The dashed line is the March 2023 seasonally adjusted annual sales rate (SAAR) Heavy truck sales really collapsed during the great recession, falling to a low of 180 thousand SAAR in May 2009. Then heavy truck sales increased to a new all-time high of 570 thousand SAAR in April 2019. Note: "Heavy trucks - trucks more than 14,000 pounds gross vehicle weight." Heavy truck sales declined sharply at the beginning of the pandemic, falling to a low of 308 thousand SAAR in May 2020. Heavy truck sales were at 484 thousand SAAR in March, down from an upwardly revised 516 thousand in February, and up 7% from 464 thousand SAAR in March 2022. Usually, heavy truck sales decline sharply prior to a recession. Sales were solid in March.

New Vehicle Sales in Q1 Jump 11.7%. Inventories Build, But Still Less than Half of 2019. Pent-up Demand at 6 Million Vehicles by Wolf Richter -- Sales of new cars, SUVs, vans, and pickup trucks in Q1 rose by 11.7% year-over-year, to 3.68 million vehicles, according to data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis. It was the best quarter since Q1 2021, when the chip shortages began. But still far from normal-ish: Q1 sales were still down by 7.6% from Q1 2019: New vehicle inventories are recovering, but still woefully low. Supply chain issues have been getting resolved step by step, and production has been ramped up, and new vehicle inventories have been rising for months. Overall, inventories remain far below healthy levels, with some models in short supply or out of stock, and customers still have to deal with waiting lists and long waits after they order. But other models – including many truck models – are in ample supply. Inventories of new vehicles on dealer lots and in transit have more than doubled since the low point in the fall of 2021, to 1.80 million vehicles at the end of February, according to data from Cox Automotive. But this was still less than half the inventory in 2019: Massive pricing distortions to be worked through. Dealers and automakers have pushed up prices into the absurd, and in addition, automakers have pushed their models even further upscale over the past two years, to where the average transaction price (ATP) in the industry is now nearly $46,000, according to JD Power, up by $13,000 from 2019, which is crazy. Automakers have worked hard for years to turn the average new vehicle into a luxury product that the average hard-working American can no longer afford. At first, those efforts were backed by artificially low interest rates. Then, as automakers were grappling with supply shortages, they prioritized the high-end to protect their dollar-sales, given that production and vehicles sales had collapsed. And now supply is picking up, and interest rates are much higher. The way this gets dealt with is with cuts to MSRPs – we’ve already seen some price cuts among EV models – and with bigger discounts, incentives, and rebates as inventories begin to build. There will also be a shift in production to less-loaded and more affordable models.

ISM® Manufacturing index Decreased to 46.3% in March - The ISM manufacturing index indicated contraction. The PMI® was at 46.3% in March, up from 47.7% in February. The employment index was at 46.9%, down from 49.1% last month, and the new orders index was at 44.3%, up from 47.0%. From ISM: Manufacturing PMI® at 46.3% March 2023 Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business® “The March Manufacturing PMI® registered 46.3 percent, 1.4 percentage points lower than the 47.7 percent recorded in February. Regarding the overall economy, this figure indicates a fourth month of contraction after a 30-month period of expansion. The Manufacturing PMI® is at its lowest level since May 2020, when it registered 43.5 percent. The New Orders Index remained in contraction territory at 44.3 percent, 2.7 percentage points lower than the figure of 47 percent recorded in February. The Production Index reading of 47.8 percent is a 0.5-percentage point increase compared to February’s figure of 47.3 percent. The Prices Index registered 49.2 percent, down 2.1 percentage points compared to the February figure of 51.3 percent. The Backlog of Orders Index registered 43.9 percent, 1.2 percentage points lower than the February reading of 45.1 percent. The Employment Index continued in contraction territory, registering 46.9 percent, down 2.2 percentage points from February’s reading of 49.1 percent. The Supplier Deliveries Index figure of 44.8 percent is 0.4 percentage point lower than the 45.2 percent recorded in February; this is the index’s lowest reading since March 2009 (43.2 percent). The Inventories Index dropped into contraction at 47.5 percent, 2.6 percentage points lower than the February reading of 50.1 percent. The New Export Orders Index reading of 47.6 percent is 2.3 percentage points lower than February’s figure of 49.9 percent. The Imports Index continued in contraction territory at 47.9 percent, 2 percentage points below the 49.9 percent reported in February.”
emphasis added This suggests manufacturing contracted in March. This was below the consensus forecast.

ISM Manufacturing Tumbles To Post-COVID Lows, Employment Slumps - US 'hard' macro data has continued to surprise to the upside in the last month (despite 'soft' regional Fed survey data fading), and consensus expected both ISM and PMI Manufacturing surveys for March to show another month of contraction.

• S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI Final March 49.2, down from flash print at 49.3, but up from the 47.3 in Feb - that is the 5th straight month of contraction (sub-50)
• ISM Manufacturing March dropped to 46.3, from 47.7, and below 47.5 expectations - that is the 5th straight monthly contraction to the lowest since May 2020

Graphs Source: Bloomberg - Twelve industries reported contraction in March, led by furniture, nonmetallic mineral products and textiles. Six sectors expanded. “New order rates remain sluggish as panelists become more concerned about when manufacturing growth will resume,” Timothy Fiore, chair of ISM’s Manufacturing Business Survey Committee, said in a statement. “Price instability remains, but future demand is uncertain as companies continue to work down overdue deliveries and backlogs.” Under the hood, ISM is ugly with all the factors weighing negatively on the headline for the second month in a row... ISM employment weakest since July 2020... New Orders/Inventories has stopped improving as the signal remains deeply in recession-signaling territory... Siân Jones, Senior Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, said: “The US manufacturing sector continued to signal concerning trends during March. Although output rose for the first time since last October, growth was fractional, and largely supported by ramping up production following an unprecedented reduction in supply chain pressures. " "The timely delivery of inputs allowed firms to work through backlogs, but sparse demand amid pressure on customer spending due to higher interest rates and inflation spoke to challenges ahead for goods producers if there is little change in domestic and international client appetite. " "Weak demand for inputs resulted in some relief for manufacturers as input cost inflation slowed again. A paucity of new orders sparked efforts to entice customers, however, as selling price inflation eased notably to the weakest since October 2020. Nonetheless, inflationary concerns weighed on business confidence once again amid pressure on margins. "Encouragingly, firms were able to expand factory workforce capacity again, albeit at only a marginal pace, as skilled candidates for long-held vacancies were found." Finally, here's how S&P Global describes the way forward: Goods producers remained strongly upbeat in their outlook for output over the coming year in March. Hopes of greater client demand drove optimism. Confidence slipped to the lowest level in three months amid inflation concerns, however.

ISM Services Slumps In March As Export Orders Collapse -After ISM Manufacturing's tumble spooked markets yesterday (along with the JOLTS data), all eyes were hopefully looking towards the Services surveys for some soft-landing narrative reinforcement.

• S&P Global Services PMI disappointed, falling from 53.8 flash to 52.6 final, but still up from February's 50.6 - and the highest since June 2022
• ISM Services disappointed too, dropping from 55.1 to 51.2 (54.4 exp)

As macro surprise data has risen all year (until this week)... So while PMI rose MoM, it fell intra-month, and ISM was ugly - not good.As the following chart shows, ISM saw declines in both Services and Manufacturing while S&P Global PMI saw both improve... Under the hood, on the Services price front, input costs rose at the second-slowest pace since October 2020. Nevertheless, efforts to pass through higher costs to clients resulted in a steep and accelerated increase in selling prices. However, ISM data shows Services Prices at their lowest since July 2020 and new orders tumbled (as export orders collapsed)...ISM Chair Anthony Nieves noted,

• “There has been a pullback in the rate of growth for the services sector, attributed mainly to
• (1) a cooling off in the new orders growth rate,
• (2) an employment environment that varies by industry and
• (3) continued improvements in capacity and logistics, a positive impact on supplier performance.
• The majority of respondents report a positive outlook on business conditions.”

...but there were plenty of negative comments from respondents too...There remains a notable divergence between Manufacturing and Services employment data from ISM, but March shows the latter catching down... Siân Jones, Senior Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, said:"Business activity across the service sector expanded at a faster pace in March, as a return to new order growth offered a tonic to the US economy, which saw the fastest rise in private sector output since last June. "Greater service sector demand and increased pressure on capacity spurred another round of job creation, with the rate of employment growth quickening slightly to a six-month high."Concerns regarding the impact of inflation and higher interest rates on customer spending remained apparent, however. Optimism at goods producers and service providers dipped since February amid elevated cost pressures. Nonetheless, selling price inflation accelerated again due to more accommodative demand conditions. A sharper rise in charges contrasted with the trend for input prices, which increased at the second slowest pace since October 2020."Simply put, improvements in customer spending across the service economy counteracted another fall in manufacturing sales.

This is Still the Most Astonishing Labor Market: Job Openings, Hiring, Voluntary Quits, Layoffs & Discharges by Wolf Richter - Job openings fell but remained historically high. And this is not based on wishful-thinking job postings, but on surveys sent to 21,000 businesses about their actual workforce details. Actual hiring dipped, but remained well above the pre-pandemic record. Layoffs and discharges dropped again, and were well below the pre-pandemic record low. Voluntary quits – workers going for a better job – rose again and are still in the astronomical zone.It’s astonishing how this labor market just keeps on going like this, despite the higher interest rates, high inflation, turmoil in banking, and the sell-off in the markets since November 2021. And it explains why consumers are still not slowing down. Or vice versa. Job openings – as reported by companies, not online job postings – fell in February, but remained historically high and was still up by 31% from the pre-pandemic peak set in November 2018. The 9.93 million job openings in February were well above the Good Times range before the pandemic of around 7.2 million openings.Companies overall have cut back their open positions from ridiculously high levels to just very high levels – that’s what this data shows that the Bureau of Labor Statistics released today as part of its Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS).In the tech and social media segment, and to a lesser extent in some other segments, hiring freezes and layoffs have decimated job openings. CEOs of tech and social media companies have admitted that they overhired during the pandemic, and they’re now undoing a portion of it. Some companies added hundreds of thousands of people in two years, and they’re now trimming tens of thousands.Job openings in the “Information” sector rose in February for the second month in a row, but are way down from the peak last year – yet, still in the mid-rage of the Good Times before the pandemic.The startup bubble has imploded, funding is drying up for cash-burn machines, and in order to lengthen their runway before they get to the out-of-money date, many of these startups slashed their job openings and their actual staff. Some have filed for bankruptcy already or just shut down. So the bloom is off the bubble.Other sectors and companies have their unique conditions. For example, in the construction sector, job openings jumped to near-record highs. At automakers, layoffs and voluntary buyouts at their internal-combustion-engine divisions contrast with massive hiring and job openings at their new EV divisions. Many companies that have been desperately trying to hire tech workers now have a slightly easier time doing so.

ADP Employment Report Confirms Labor Market Weakness In March - Following yesterday's ugly JOLTS data, and the employment weakness under the surface in the ISM Manufacturing report, expectations were still for just a small slowdown in job additions in March (+210k exp vs +242k in Feb). However, as JOLTS and ISM hinted at, things are changing fast and ADP printed just +145k (a big miss) Source: Bloomberg As ADP's Chief Economist Nela Richardson notes: "Our March payroll data is one of several signals that the economy is slowing. Employers are pulling back from a year of strong hiring and pay growth, after a three-month plateau, is inching down." Manufacturing and Financial Activities (regional banking collapse) dominated the job losses with The Southern region seeing major job losses (as well as medium-sized companies)... The miss-beat-miss sequence continues as ADP goal-seeks... Pay growth decelerated for both job stayers and job changers. For job stayers, year-over-year gains fell to 6.9 percent from 7.2 percent in February. Pay growth for job changers was 14.2 percent, down from 14.4 percent. Wage growth in Leisure and Hospitality remained the highest of all the sectors but is slowing dramatically... But we do note that "Women" (for any definition of the word "women") are seeing wage gains outpace men's in every age group... Finally, as a reminder, it has been the labor market data that has materially supported the 'strong' macro argument among market participants, dominating the weakness in 'soft' survey and industrial data in recent weeks. But the last week has seen reality starting to set in on that 'lagging' labor market data... Is the job market now just lagging the rest of the macro data to the downside? Or, is it all too smoothed and 'adjusted' to be of any use at all? For sure, while Fed speakers continue to talk about a terminal rate above 5% and holding for a while, the market is absolutely not buying it at all (pricing in a year-end rate 100bps below The Fed's dotplot)...

March Employment Report: 236 thousand Jobs, 3.5% Unemployment Rate - -From the BLS:Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 236,000 in March, and the unemployment rate changed little at 3.5 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment continued to trend up in leisure and hospitality, government, professional and business services, and health care....The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for January was revised down by 32,000, from +504,000 to +472,000, and the change for February was revised up by 15,000, from +311,000 to +326,000. With these revisions, employment in January and February combined is 17,000 lower than previously reported. The first graph shows the jobs added per month since January 2021.Total payrolls increased by 236 thousand in March. Private payrolls increased by 189 thousand, and public payrolls increased 47 thousand.Payrolls for January and February were revised down 17 thousand, combined.The second graph shows the year-over-year change in total non-farm employment since 1968.In March, the year-over-year change was 4.15 million jobs. Employment was up significantly year-over-year.The third graph shows the employment population ratio and the participation rate.The Labor Force Participation Rate increased to 62.6% in March, from 62.5% in February. This is the percentage of the working age population in the labor force.The Employment-Population ratio increased to 60.4% from 60.2% (blue line). The fourth graph shows the unemployment rate.The unemployment rate decreased in March to 3.5% from 3.6% in February.This was close to consensus expectations; however, January and February payrolls were revised down by 17,000 combined.

U.S. adds a healthy 236,000 jobs despite Fed’s rate hikes - America’s employers added a solid 236,000 jobs in March, reflecting a resilient labor market and suggesting that the Federal Reserve may see the need to keep raising interest rates in the coming months. The unemployment rate fell to 3.5%, not far above the 53-year low of 3.4% set in January. Last month’s job growth was down from February’s sizzling gain of 326,000. Friday’s government report suggested that the economy and the job market remain on solid footing despite nine rate hikes imposed over the past year by the Fed. The March job gain may lead the Fed to conclude that the pace of hiring is still putting upward pressure on wages and inflation and that further rates hikes are necessary. When the central bank tightens credit, it typically leads to higher rates on mortgages, auto loans, credit card borrowing and many business loans. Despite last month’s brisk job growth, the latest economic signs increasingly suggest that an economic slowdown may be upon us. Manufacturing is weakening. America’s trade with the rest of the world is declining. And though restaurants, retailers and other services companies are still growing, they are doing so more slowly. For Fed officials, taming inflation is Job One. They were slow to respond after consumer prices started surging in the spring of 2021, concluding that it was only a temporary consequence of supply bottlenecks caused by the economy’s surprisingly explosive rebound from the pandemic recession. Only in March 2022 did the Fed begin raising its benchmark rate from near zero. In the past year, though, it has raised rates more aggressively than it had since the 1980s to attack the worst inflation bout since then. And as borrowing costs have risen, inflation has steadily eased. The latest year-over-year consumer inflation rate — 6% — is well below the 9.1% rate it reached last June. But it’s still considerably above the Fed’s 2% target. Complicating matters is turmoil in the financial system. Two big American banks failed in March, and higher rates and tighter credit conditions could further destabilize banks and depress borrowing and spending by consumers and businesses. The Fed is aiming to achieve a so-called soft landing — slowing growth just enough to tame inflation without causing the world’s biggest economy to tumble into recession. Most economists doubt it will work; they expect a recession later this year. So far, the economy has proved resilient in the face of ever-higher borrowing costs. America’s gross domestic product — the economy’s total output of goods and services — expanded at a healthy pace in second half of 2022. Yet recent data suggests that the economy is losing momentum. On Monday, the Institute for Supply Management, an association of purchasing managers, reported that U.S. manufacturing activity contracted in March for a fifth straight month. Two days later, the ISM said that growth in services, which accounts for the vast majority of U.S. employment, had slowed sharply last month. On Wednesday, the Commerce Department reported that U.S. exports and imports both fell in February in another sign that the global economy is weakening. The Labor Department on Thursday said it had adjusted the way it calculates how many Americans are filing for unemployment benefits. The tweak added nearly 100,000 claims to its figures for the past two weeks and might explain why heavy layoffs in the tech industry this year had yet to show up on the unemployment rolls.

March jobs report: leading sectors turn down in a pre-recessionary, but still quite positive, report - Unsurprisingly, my focus on this report, like the last few reports, was on whether residential construction jobs turned negative or not, whether manufacturing and temporary jobs continued on their downward trajectory, and whether the deceleration in job growth would be apparent.Some of the deceleration or decline occurred, particularly in the sectors which lead the market overall, while other metrics held steady or even improved, consistent with a still very tight market.Here’s my in depth synopsis.

• 236,000 jobs added, the lowest number since December 2020. Private sector jobs increased 189,000, also the lowest since December 2020. Government jobs increased by 47,000. The three month moving average of growth declined 1,000 to 345,000.
• The alternate, and more volatile measure in the household report rose by 577,000 jobs. The above household number factors into the unemployment and underemployment rates below.
• U3 unemployment rate declined -0.1% to 3.5%.
• U6 underemployment rate also declined -0.1% to 6.7%.
• January was revised downward by -32,000, and February was revised upward by 15,000, for a net decrease of -17,000 jobs compared with previous reports.

These are leading sectors for the economy overall, and help us gauge how much the post-pandemic employment boom is shading towards a downturn. These were mixed, but the overall tenor was neutral to negative:

• the average manufacturing workweek, one of the 10 components of the Index of Leading Indicators, declined was unchanged at 40.7, down -0.9 hours from February peak last year of 41.6 hours.
• Manufacturing jobs declined by -1,000.
• Construction jobs declined for the first time since January 2022, by -9,000.
• Residential construction jobs, which are even more leading, increased by only 800, but last month’s gain of 1,200 was revised to a loss of -2,400, suggesting January may have been the peak for this sector.
• Temporary jobs, which have generally been declining late last year, resumed that decline, by -10,700.
• the number of people unemployed for 5 weeks or less declined -17,000 to 2,272,000.
• Average Hourly Earnings for Production and Nonsupervisory Personnel increased $.09, or +0.3%, to $28.50, a YoY gain of 5.1%, the lowest YoY gain since July of 2021.
• the index of aggregate hours worked for non-managerial workers rose 0.2%.
• the index of aggregate payrolls for non-managerial workers rose 0.4%, but continued its deceleration to 7.2% YoY, the lowest since March 2021, although still more than 1% higher YoY than inflation as of the last reading.
• Leisure and hospitality jobs, which were the most hard-hit during the pandemic, rose 72,000, only -368,000, or -2.2% below their pre-pandemic peak.
• Within the leisure and hospitality sector, food and drink establishments added 50,300 jobs, and are now only -75,000, or -0.6% below their pre-pandemic peak.
• Professional and business employment rose 39,000. This series has also been decelerating consistently, and is now up 2.3% YoY, the lowest increase since March 2021.
• The Labor Force Participation Rate increased 0.1% to 62.6%, vs. 63.4% in February 2020.
• The number of job holders who were part time for economic reasons rose 35,000.
• Those not in the labor force at all, but who want a job now, declined -178,000 to 4.925 million, its lowest level since December 2019.

SUMMARY As it is so often, this report had a somewhat bifurcated nature. It remained solid in terms of absolute job growth. Further, in general the numbers derived from the Household Survey were very good. But most of the leading internals in the Establishment report were negative.Let me highlight the leading negatives. All 3 leading sectors of the jobs market have turned down: manufacturing, construction, and temporary jobs. Also, while the manufacturing workweek was unchanged this month, it is at a level which in the past has been consistent with a recession. The drumbeat of negative revisions to prior reports has also resumed. This is solidly pre-recessionary.But let’s not overlook the positives in the Household Survey. Both the unemployment and underemployment rates declined, and participation increased. Jobs are obviously still easy to get, as those out of the labor force who nevertheless want a job declined to a 3+ year low, and indeed except for 2019, the lowest number since 2008. And while aggregate payroll growth is decelerating, it is still growing at a rate higher than inflation.To sum up: pre-recessionary, but we aren’t at the recession yet.

Comments on March Employment Report - McBride - The headline jobs number in the March employment report was close to expectations, however employment for the previous two months was revised down by 17,000, combined. The participation rate and employment population ratio increased, and the unemployment rate decreased to 3.5%. Leisure and hospitality gained 72 thousand jobs in March. At the beginning of the pandemic, in March and April of 2020, leisure and hospitality lost 8.2 million jobs, and are now down 368 thousand jobs since February 2020. So, leisure and hospitality has now added back about 96% all of the jobs lost in March and April 2020. Construction employment decreased 9 thousand and is now 280 thousand above the pre-pandemic level. Manufacturing lost 1 thousand jobs and is now 198 thousand above the pre-pandemic level. Earlier: March Employment Report: 236 thousand Jobs, 3.5% Unemployment Rate In March, the year-over-year employment change was 4.15 million jobs. Since the overall participation rate is impacted by both cyclical (recession) and demographic (aging population, younger people staying in school) reasons, here is the employment-population ratio for the key working age group: 25 to 54 years old. The 25 to 54 participation rate was unchanged in March at 83.1% from 83.1% in February, and the 25 to 54 employment population ratio increased to 80.7% from 80.5% the previous month. Both are at the pre-pandemic levels and suggest essentially all of the prime age workers have returned to the labor force. The graph shows the nominal year-over-year change in "Average Hourly Earnings" for all private employees from the Current Employment Statistics (CES). There was a huge increase at the beginning of the pandemic as lower paid employees were let go, and then the pandemic related spike reversed a year later. Wage growth has trended down after peaking at 5.9% YoY in March 2022 and was at 4.2% YoY in March. Wages growth was strong last year in the March through July period, so year-over-year wage growth will likely slow further over the next few months. The number of persons working part time for economic reasons increased in March to 4.102 million from 4.067 million in February. This is at pre-recession levels. These workers are included in the alternate measure of labor underutilization (U-6) that decreased to 6.7% from 6.8% in the previous month. This is down from the record high in April 22.9% and up from the lowest level on record (seasonally adjusted) in December 2022 (6.5%). (This series started in 1994). This measure is below the level in February 2020 (pre-pandemic). This graph shows the number of workers unemployed for 27 weeks or more. According to the BLS, there are 1.104 million workers who have been unemployed for more than 26 weeks and still want a job, up from 1.057 million the previous month. This is at pre-pandemic levels. Summary: The headline monthly jobs number was close to expectations; however, employment for the previous two months was revised down by 17,000, combined. The headline unemployment rate decreased to 3.5%. Overall, this was a solid employment report.

Tennessee GOP members move to oust 3 Dems after gun protest — Tennessee Republican lawmakers took the first steps Monday to expel three Democratic members from the GOP-dominant House for their role in a recent gun control protest at the state Capitol. The extraordinarily rare move resulted in a chaotic and fiery confrontation between lawmakers and supporters opposing the move and has further fractured an already deep political division inside the Tennessee Legislature. Resolutions have been filed against Reps. Gloria Johnson, Justin Jones and Justin Pearson after they led chants from the House floor with supporters in the gallery last Thursday. The resolution declared that the three had participated in “disorderly behavior” and “did knowingly and intentionally bring disorder and dishonor to the House of Representatives.” Republican Reps. Bud Hulsey, Gino Bulso, and Andrew Farmer filed the resolutions. They successfully requested Monday that the House expedite the process and vote on the resolutions Thursday. Despite support from the Republican supermajority, their requests sparked outrage among supporters watching in the gallery. Their loud jeers led House Speaker Cameron Sexton to demand that they be removed by state troopers. Also during the turmoil, several lawmakers engaged in a confrontation on the House floor. Jones later accused another member of stealing his phone and trying to “incite a riot with his fellow members.” Sexton deemed Jones out of order and cut off Jones’ microphone. Hundreds of protesters packed the Capitol last week calling for the Republican-led Statehouse to pass gun control measures in response to the Nashville school shooting that resulted in the deaths of six people. As the chants echoed throughout the Capitol, Jones, Johnson and Pearson approached the front of the House chamber with a bullhorn. As the three shared the bullhorn and cheered on the crowd, Sexton, a Republican, quickly called for a recess. He later vowed the three would face consequences. Meanwhile, House Minority Leader Karen Camper described their actions as “good trouble,” a reference to the late U.S. Rep. John Lewis’ guiding principal.

Report details 'staggering' church sex abuse in Maryland — More than 150 Catholic priests and others associated with the Archdiocese of Baltimore sexually abused over 600 children and often escaped accountability, according to a long-awaited state report released Wednesday that revealed the scope of abuse spanning 80 years and accused church leaders of decades of coverups. The report paints a damning picture of the archdiocese, which is the oldest Roman Catholic diocese in the country and spans much of Maryland. Some parishes, schools and congregations had more than one abuser at the same time — including St. Mark Parish in Catonsville, which had 11 abusers living and working there between 1964 and 2004. One deacon admitted to molesting over 100 children. Another priest was allowed to feign hepatitis treatment and make other excuses to avoid facing abuse allegations. The Maryland Attorney General’s Office released the findings of their yearslong investigation during Holy Week — considered the most sacred time of year in Christianity ahead of Easter Sunday — and said the number of victims is likely far higher. The report was redacted to protect confidential grand jury materials, meaning the identities of some accused clergy were removed. “The staggering pervasiveness of the abuse itself underscores the culpability of the Church hierarchy,” the report said. “The sheer number of abusers and victims, the depravity of the abusers’ conduct, and the frequency with which known abusers were given the opportunity to continue preying upon children are astonishing.” Disclosure of the redacted findings marks a significant development in an ongoing legal battle over their release and adds to growing evidence from parishes across the country as numerous similar revelations have rocked the Catholic Church in recent years. Baltimore Archbishop William Lori, in a statement posted online, apologized to the victims and said the report “details a reprehensible time in the history of this Archdiocese, a time that will not be covered up, ignored or forgotten.”

Veto stands: Transgender pronouns OK in North Dakota schools - Teachers in North Dakota can still refer to transgender students by the personal pronouns they use, after lawmakers on Monday failed to override the governor’s veto of a controversial bill to place restrictions on educators. House lawmakers fell short of the two-thirds majority needed to block the veto, days after Republican Gov. Doug Burgum’s office announced the veto and the Senate overrode it. The bill would have prohibited public school teachers and employees from acknowledging the personal pronouns a transgender student uses, unless they received permission from the student’s parents as well as a school administrator. It would have also prohibited government agencies from requiring employees to acknowledge the pronouns a transgender colleagues uses. In a letter to state lawmakers announcing his veto, the governor said, “The teaching profession is challenging enough without the heavy hand of state government forcing teachers to take on the role of pronoun police.” The First Amendment already protects teachers from speaking contrary to their beliefs, and existing law protects the free speech rights of state employees, Burgum added. Republican lawmakers across the U.S. have drafted hundreds of laws this year to push back on LGBTQ+ freedoms, particularly seeking to regulate aspects of transgender people’s lives including gender-affirming health care, bathroom use, athletics and drag performances. “Ask yourself, does Senate Bill 2231 treat others the way you would want to be treated?” Democratic Rep. Emily O’Brien of Grand Forks said on the House floor, adding that overriding the veto would perpetuate “discrimination, hatred or prejudice.” Republican Rep. SuAnn Olson of Baldwin said the bill protects freedom of speech for teachers and keeps “inappropriate” topics out of the classroom. North Dakota will consider other bills this session about transgender students, she said.

Florida school district removes book on Anne Frank from libraries— A book about Anne Frank was removed from a Florida school library after a new policy was approved. According to WPTV, “Anne Frank’s Diary: The Graphic Adaptation” was removed from school libraries in Indian River County. The station said the book was removed from the Vero Beach High School library after a parent group expressed concerns. “We think true history absolutely needs to be taught, the Holocaust, the Anne Frank diary,” Jennifer Pippin, who chairs the Indian River County chapter of Moms For Liberty, told WPTV. Pippin argues that in one graphic scene in the book, Frank asks a friend to expose themselves to one another. In another scene, Pippin said Frank walks along nude statues that are sexually explicit. Dr. Kyra Schafte, the director of academic compliance and equity for the district told WPTV that the original “Diary of Anne Frank” is still in school libraries in Indian River County. The station reported that the graphic adaptation was removed after it was brought to the attention of the principal. It was later determined that some of its text did not contribute to the themes of Holocaust education. “When districts address Holocaust education, it does so without denying or minimizing the events of Holocaust education,” Schafte told WPTV. Pippin told the station that her group has about 250 titles they plan to challenge in the future. Indian River County recently created a “District Objection Committee.” It’s made up of a mixture of parents appointed by school board members and district employees. The committee will meet if there are formal challenges for books to be removed district-wide.

The banning of Michelangelo’s “David” and the orgy of cultural censorship in the United States - On March 20, Principal Hope Carrasquilla was forced to resign from the Tallahassee Classical School, a K-12 charter school in Leon County, Florida, after parents of sixth graders complained that they were not informed that her students would be shown an image of the great Renaissance artist Michelangelo Buonarotti’s masterpiece, “David,” finished in 1504. The image was part of a lesson about Renaissance art that included such works as Botticelli’s “The Birth of Venus” and “The Creation of Adam,” and images from the Sistine Chapel, also by Michelangelo. In other words, the pictures were those typically shown to American children in courses on art or world history, and certainly mandatory in a school that claims to adhere to a classical curriculum, as the Tallahassee school does. While there is controversy over whether one of the parents called the statue “pornographic,” it is clear that the most backward, censorious and anti-artistic cultural sentiments motivated both the complaint and the removal of the principal. The Tallahassee Classical School Board has attempted to disguise the reasons for the forced resignation of the principal. It has claimed that the image has been shown before, but with adequate notice to parents, and that Carrasquilla was asked to leave for other unspecified reasons in addition to the failure to notify parents. As the chair of the School Board, Barney Bishop III, said in an interview with Slate, “If there’s controversial topics or subjects, we tell parents in advance.” This begs the question of why an institution of learning in the 21st century (or the 19th or the 17th) would consider showing “David” to 10- and 11-year-olds “controversial.” Clearly, Carrasquilla did not think it was. She told the media, “[H]onestly we did not have to send out a letter regarding Renaissance art.” But in the interview with Bishop, the reason, or a part of it, becomes clear: “Parents are the ones who are going to drive the education system here in Florida,” he said. “The governor [Ron DeSantis] said that, and we’re with the governor.” It is in the name of “parents’ rights” that fascist elements in the Republican Party are now censoring books and works of art that refer to sexual or political content that they oppose, and DeSantis—a leading contender behind former President Donald Trump to be the Republicans’ presidential candidate in 2024—is taking the lead on this in Florida.

Kansas bans transgender athletes from women's, girls' sports (AP) — Kansas is banning transgender athletes from girls’ and women’s sports from kindergarten through college, the first of several possible new laws restricting the rights of transgender people pushed through by Republican legislators over the wishes of the Democratic governor.The Legislature on Wednesday overrode Gov. Laura Kelly’s third veto in three years of a bill to ban transgender athletes, and came a day after state lawmakers passed a broad bathroom bill. Nineteen other states have imposed restrictions on transgender athletes, most recently Wyoming. The Kansas law takes effect July 1 and is among several hundred proposals that Republican lawmakers across the U.S. have pursued this year to push back on LGBTQ rights. Kansas lawmakers who back the ban are also pursuing proposals to end gender-affirming care for minors and restrict restroom use.The measure approved by Kansas lawmakers Tuesday would prevent transgender people from using public restrooms, locker rooms and other facilities associated with their gender identities, and bars them from changing their name or gender on their driver’s licenses. Kelly is expected to veto that.“It’s a scary time to be raising a trans child in Kansas,” said Cat Poland, a lifelong Kansas resident and mother of three who coordinates a Gay-Straight Alliance at her 13-year-old trans son’s school about 40 miles (65 kilometers) northwest of Wichita. “We may face the very real threat of having to move, and it’s heartbreaking.”

Supreme Court rules West Virginia transgender athletes can compete on female sports teams -The Supreme Court has ruled that transgender athletes in West Virginia can compete on female school sports teams in response to a challenge by the state to allow it to enforce a law that prohibits such athletes from doing so. In a brief, unsigned order, the justices denied the state’s emergency request to lift an appeals court’s injunction, which enabled a transgender girl to compete on her middle school’s female teams until the three-judge panel reaches a final decision. The appeals panel is now set to hear the student athlete’s appeal in full, and the case could ultimately return to the high court. Justice Samuel Alito in a statement joined by Justice Clarence Thomas dissenting from the decision said the case “concerns an important issue that this Court is likely to be required to address in the near future.” West Virginia in 2021 became the seventh state in the nation — and the sixth that year — to enact a law prohibiting transgender women and girls from competing on female sports teams. The measure, officially titled the “Save Women’s Sports Act,” bars transgender female athletes from participating in sports consistent with their gender identity in public elementary schools, high schools and universities. West Virginia Gov. Jim Justice (R) could not cite a specific example of a transgender athlete with an unfair competitive advantage in his state when asked during an interview following his approval of the bill, but he said his experience as a girls’ basketball coach led him to believe the legislation is fair.

School's transgender policy trumped teacher's religious rights, U.S. court rules - (Reuters) - An Indiana high school did not break the law by allegedly forcing a music teacher to quit after he refused on religious grounds to use transgender students' preferred names, a U.S. appeals court ruled on Friday. The rights of the teacher, John Kluge, to exercise his religious beliefs were outweighed by the potential disruption that his conduct could have on the learning environment at Brownsburg High School in the Indianapolis suburbs, the Chicago-based 7th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals said. Kluge said his Christian religious beliefs barred him from complying with a school policy requiring faculty to use students' preferred names and pronouns. The school initially allowed Kluge to call students by their last names but reneged after receiving complaints from students and faculty, according to court filings. He said he resigned in 2018 after he was told he would be fired. Kluge sued the school district in 2019, accusing it of violating a federal law that prohibits workplace discrimination based on religion. He was seeking to get his job back and unspecified money damages. Kluge is represented by the Alliance Defending Freedom, a conservative Christian legal group. Rory Gray, a lawyer with the group, said he was evaluating Kluge's options. “The 7th Circuit’s ruling shows why the Supreme Court needs to fix the standard for accommodating religious employees," Gray said in a statement. Lawyers for the school did not respond to a request for comment. Federal law only requires employers to accommodate workers' religious beliefs if it would not cause them an undue hardship.>

Biden proposal limits bans on transgender athletes (Reuters) - The Biden administration on Thursday proposed a rule change that would prohibit schools from enacting outright bans on transgender athletes from teams that are consistent with their gender identities, but offered flexibility on exceptions for the highest levels of competition. The proposed change to Title IX is likely to revive debates about transgender rights, particularly in sports. Across the country, there has been a push by conservative U.S. lawmakers to prevent transgender women from participating in school sports. The proposal would also offer flexibility to K-12 schools and universities to limit the participation of transgender students when including them could undermine "fairness in competition" or potentially lead to sports-related injuries. Title IX prohibits sex discrimination at educational institutions that receive federal funding. Under the changes proposed by the White House, which must undergo a period of public comment, elementary school students would generally be able to participate in school sports consistent with their gender identity. But for older students, questions of fairness and physicality could come into play. "Every student should be able to have the full experience of attending school in America, including participating in athletics, free from discrimination," said U.S. Secretary of Education Miguel Cardona. "Being on a sports team is an important part of the school experience for students of all ages." The rule is expected to be challenged in court. The U.S. Supreme Court on Thursday refused to let West Virginia enforce a state law banning transgender athletes from female sports teams at public schools, one of many Republican-backed measures across the country targeting LGBTQ rights. "South Dakota will not allow this to stand. We will lead. We will defend our laws. Only girls will play girls’ sports. President Biden, we’ll see you in court," South Dakota Governor Kristi Noem tweeted on Thursday.

One in four college applicants avoids entire states for political reasons - A new survey, drawing notice in academia, shows that 1 in 4 applicants decided against applying to a college this year solely because of the politics in its state. The finding, long rumored in college admissions circles, has dire implications for some of the nation’s most prestigious institutions. Tulane University in Louisiana, Stanford in California, Rice in Texas, Columbia in New York and the University of Miami all pride themselves on assembling a class from large pools of applicants drawn from every state. In the public sector, the University of Alabama counts on out-of-state admissions for revenue, enrolling nearly three-fifths of its students from outside its borders. Yet, large numbers of conservative and liberal applicants ruled out those schools, along with their states, because of partisan politics. “When you’re making a decision about a school, it’s really about choosing a community to live in,” said Chloe Chaffin, 20, a junior at Washburn University in Kansas. “Students want to feel that they belong to the city-community beyond the campus walls.” Chaffin chose to attend college near her home in the Kansas City suburb of Olathe. She identifies as a liberal and works as an abortion-rights activist. One reason she didn’t leave Kansas was the landslide defeat last summer of a ballot measure that would have stripped abortion rights from the state constitution, part of a national upheaval in abortion law. The new survey found that 31 percent of liberal applicants struck colleges from their lists for political reasons — especially abortion rights. The most-rejected states were Alabama, Texas, Louisiana and Florida. “It actually tracks with conversations I’ve been having with my peers,” said Gregory Koger, a political scientist at the University of Miami. “If you’re female, there’s some chance that you might need access to an abortion, and there are some states where that’s not possible. If you’re LGBTQ, you want to go to schools and to states that are friendly toward that.” Likewise, 28 percent of conservative applicants ruled out states on political grounds — namely California and New York. Conservatives rejected states less for specific policies and more for fear of an overarching, oppressive liberalism, on campus and off. “I completely understand why some people would choose to be with their own, as opposed to being in a sea of people who are politically opposed to them, on either side of the aisle,” said Nate Sirotovitch, 20, a junior at New York University who leads the College Republicans. More than their conservative peers, liberals voiced specific concerns in the survey about becoming trapped in a state with no abortion rights, intolerance of the queer community and Wild-West gun laws. One issue, at least, cut across ideological lines. A significant share of conservatives joined their liberal classmates in rejecting states with restrictive abortion laws.

UAlbany students shout down Turning Point USA Ian Haworth event — A group of state University at Albany students shut down a Tuesday-night appearance by a popular conservative who had come to campus at the request of a student organization to discuss free speech. Ian Haworth, a writer and podcast host, had been invited by the UAlbany chapter of Turning Point USA, a conservative group. But opponents hung a poster and crafted social media posts asking students to “drown out transphobia” by protesting the event. Haworth has said on Twitter that he “believes in biology and opposes genital mutilation being carried out on children.” According to protesters and numerous videos posted on Twitter by Haworth and others, students responded by filling the meeting room at Assembly Hall and chanting epithets including “F__ you, TPUSA!” and "Ian sucks!" At one point, they formed an improvised conga line and called for Haworth to come out. When Avery Middendorf, the president of TPUSA at UAlbany, tried to speak, they drowned him out by shouting, “We can’t hear you!” Meanwhile, Haworth was just outside a back door, waiting in a stairwell to be introduced. One of the protesters, Mehr Sharma, said the protester had told TPUSA they would sit down when Haworth came in. But Middendorf said that was “categorically false.” “I would’ve brought Ian out if they would’ve stopped,” he said. “I even talked to the police about it — do I bring Ian out with what’s taking place right now? And they said no, it’s like adding fuel to the fire.” After an hour, Middendorf said, the UAlbany police chief told the crowd that if they stayed in the room, he would cancel the event. Police escorted the TPUSA members to another room. There, Haworth gave an abbreviated speech of about 20 minutes and police escorted the students to their cars.

‘Traumatized’ Harvard students held at gunpoint by campus security in ‘swatting’ incident - At least four undergraduate students at Harvard were held at gunpoint by campus police officers following a false police call about an armed individual in the campus dorms on Monday morning. The four seniors, who are Black, told The Harvard Crimson that they were asleep in their Leverett House dorm suite around 4 a.m. on Monday morning when loud banging on their door woke them. Shortly after, at least five armed Harvard University police officers entered the suite, pointed their rifles at the students and instructed them to exit their rooms with their hands raised. “We were all extremely scared, particularly because my roommates and I are Black students who have been bombarded our whole lives with stories and images portraying how situations such as this had ended up terribly,” one of the residents, Jarah K. Cotton, told the Crimson. “We felt our lives were in danger. We are traumatized.” In a statement after the incident, HUPD Chief Victor Clay confirmed they received three calls over the course of nearly an hour from a male who said he had a female hostage he had attempted to fatally injure but clarified that the hostage was still alive. “The caller stated that he had been a student at Harvard this semester but had been “kicked out,” Clay said. Clay added that the caller had detailed information on how the dormitories are referenced by community members. By the third time he called, the caller said he was armed. “He first threatened to shoot law enforcement who entered the room, and then later threatened to leave the room and that he would start shooting as he did so,” Clay said. HUPD called two of the seniors, both female students, before arriving on the scene, but the two told the Crimson they were asleep at the time of the calls and did not answer. At about 4:15 a.m., the officers knocked on the door of the room. According to Clay’s statement, officers did announce their presence to the residents and they were able to enter the suite with a key. The statement confirmed the officers were armed and the students were directed to exit their suite into the hallway with their hands visible “to ensure that no one possessed a weapon, based on the indications by the caller that a weapon was present in the room.” A search of the room by HUPD found there were no injuries or threat. The false police call was an apparent “swatting” incident, a type of harassment that deliberately calls for police officers — often SWAT teams — to respond to fabricated dangerous situations.

University of Michigan takes graduate student workers to court over strike - Graduate students at the University of Michigan in Ann Arbor went on strike last week over contract negotiations. The Graduate Employees’ Organization at the university is demanding a living wage and better working conditions. The university is now taking the group to court, filing an unfair labor practice charge on Wednesday. The charge claims that the strike violates Michigan law and the contract between the university and the Graduate Employees’ Organization. The contract committee chair for the Graduate Employees’ Organization at the University of Michigan, Amir Fleischmann, expressed frustration over the university’s priorities, saying “we’re are really frustrated that the university would rather spend hundreds of thousands of dollars on lawyers than pay its workers a living wage.” The two sides have met at the bargaining table to try to negotiate, but the students said they need more money. “The situation for grad workers is pretty dire. Many of us are struggling to pay rent,” said Fleischmann. “Four out of five of us are considered rent burden by head standards and our workers are simply not going to accept a contract that doesn’t meet our needs.” The University of Michigan issued a statement to News 10, saying “we strongly believe the best place to resolve differences is at the bargaining table, and the university’s bargaining team has offered to meet as many days as possible to reach an agreement. Our top priority is that our students’ education isn’t disrupted and we continue to carry out our important educational mission.” The university’s labor agreement with the Graduate Employees’ Organization expires on May 1.

University of Michigan graduate students’ strike at a critical turning point - The ongoing strike by over 1,300 graduate student workers at the University of Michigan is reaching a critical turning point. While rank-and-file graduate students have demonstrated courage in fighting to win their central demands—above all, a living wage amid skyrocketing inflation—it is clear that the Graduate Employees’ Organization (GEO) and the American Federation of Teachers (AFT) leadership are preparing to betray the strike. At an all-membership union meeting on Wednesday night attended by roughly 600 graduate students, rank-and-file members were presented with a series of motions by the GEO and AFT leadership that made clear their intention to abandon previous demands and quickly impose a sellout agreement. Most revealing among the items presented to the membership on Wednesday was a fundamental revision of the most central demand for a 60 percent wage increase over the first year of the three-year contract. This increase would ensure that every graduate student worker receives a $38,000 salary in accordance with MIT’s Living Wage Calculator. At present, most graduate students earn a poverty-level wage of $24,000 over the course of an eight-month academic year, often with no ability to work over the summer. On Wednesday, the GEO suddenly introduced a second alternative to this demand—what they termed a “supposal” to be informally introduced at Thursday’s bargaining session—in which graduate students would instead get a 7 percent monthly increase in the first academic year and a summer “bonus” option, which they claim would still supposedly get student workers to $38,000. Everything about the proposal is deliberately open-ended and unclear. There is no wording about guaranteed summer work nor why it is a “bonus” and not just part of the salary. Most concerning is whether graduate workers would be expected to take on 12 months of work for the same wage, instead of the previous demand for a 60 percent increase to their 8- to 9-month contract. After floating this “supposal” at Thursday’s bargaining, it is likely that the GEO and AFT bargaining representatives will present a formal proposal along these lines to the University during their full-day, closed-door negotiations session on Friday. Flowing from this revision of the strikers’ central demand, the union leadership presented another motion pertaining to how they can bring about an end to the strike. The motion resolved to “Extend the strike until we get real movement from HR [Human Resources] OR we are enjoined, at which point we will decide what to do.”

Chicago State University faculty and staff strike against low pay and high workloads - More than 160 faculty and staff at Chicago State University (CSU) went on strike Monday against low pay and high workloads, as administrators remained firm in their resolve to make workers pay for decades of budget cuts at public universities throughout the state. The action by faculty and staff at the campus based on Chicago’s South Side has occurred amid a wave of strikes by faculty and graduate students throughout the country, including the University of Michigan, where currently striking graduate students are facing lawsuits by a Democratic Party-led administration aimed at dragging them back into the classroom. CSU faculty and staff are members of the University Professionals of Illinois (UPI) Local 4100, which is affiliated with the American Federation of Teachers (AFT). A March strike vote was overwhelmingly supported by 98 percent of voting faculty. They have been working without a contract since August of last year. Professors and other academic professionals at CSU, with an enrollment of around 2,400 students, are among the lowest paid in the state, according to data from the Illinois Board of Higher Education (IBHE). A report from the National Education Association (NEA) found professors at Chicago State were paid an average of $88,000 per year, $7,000 less than the state average. CSU’s UPI chapter president Valerie Goss cited problems with retaining and attracting faculty given the low pay and high workload, asking, “How can we expect our outstanding faculty and staff to stay here and work more for less?” Goss noted, “Our workloads are so overwhelming that there aren’t enough hours in the day to get everything done.” Goss, as well as UPI President John Miller, declined to state the union’s salary demands, with Miller saying, “We don’t bargain in public.” Goss told Inside Higher Ed that the union’s overall proposal and the university’s differ by about $294,000, which is less than one half of one percent of the university’s budget, and less than the yearly salary of CSU President Zaldwaynaka Scott, who made $395,000 in fiscal year 2021, and received a 16 percent salary increase on top of that just this year. Despite lavishing such high salaries on top administrators, the university administration is citing budget difficulties, claiming, “The union’s financial demands far exceed our current economic position.” University officials have committed to keeping student services and classes running, even aiming to bring in strikebreakers to bring faculty to heel. A university statement prior to the strike threatened, “We have contingency plans in place to leverage available instruction resources to minimize the disruption to our students as much as possible.” Goss noted in response to the threat of strikebreakers, “They can actually think about and are moving towards hiring people to replace us in the classroom, but not actually putting money towards what would be a fair proposal for us.”

University facing class-action over COVID campus lockdown - -- A lawsuit against the University of Delaware over its campus shutdown and halting of in-person classes because of coronavirus can proceed as a class action on behalf of thousands of students who were enrolled and paid tuition in spring 2020, a federal judge has ruled. Friday's decision came just days before a scheduled hearing this week on the university's request for the judge to rule in its favor without a trial. That hearing has been postponed indefinitely. In his ruling, Judge Stephanos Bibas rejected the University of Delaware's argument that the plaintiffs, who accuse the school of breach of contract and unjust enrichment, lacked standing to sue. The university also argued unsuccessfully that it is impossible to know who actually paid tuition because some students may have used outside sources like scholarships. “Those students, no less than students who paid out of their own pockets, were parties to a contract that U. Delaware allegedly breached,” wrote the judge, who noted that the only students excluded from the class would be those who received full rides. According to the ruling, more than 17,000 undergraduates were enrolled at the University of Delaware in spring 2020, and the university collected more than $160 million in tuition. The plaintiffs have argued that, before the pandemic, the school treated in-person and online classes as separate offerings and charged more for some in-person programs than they did for similar online classes. They also noted that the university charged them fees for the gym, student centers, and the health center, sometimes at higher rates than those paid by online students, and that the school kept those fees while denying them the services. The plaintiffs are seeking partial refunds of their spring 2020 tuition, having earlier agreed to dismiss their claims arising from student fees. The university claimed that none of the named plaintiffs who brought the lawsuit paid tuition.

Frank founder Charlie Javice charged in fraudulent acquisition - Federal prosecutors have charged Charlie Javice with fraudulently misrepresenting the value of the college financial aid technology startup she founded by inflating the company's customer base ahead of a $175 million sale to JPMorgan Chase. The Securities and Exchange Commission accused Javice on Tuesday of knowingly concealing the number of customers that her New York-based company, Frank, had secured as JPMorgan prepared to acquire the fintech in an attempt to expand in the student financial services industry. Javice wrongfully received approximately $9.7 million as a result of the transaction as well as "millions more indirectly," according to a complaint filed by the SEC in the U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York. The Department of Justice and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation also filed criminal charges against Javice after her arrest last night in New Jersey, accusing the Frank founder of making more than $45 million from the fraudulently negotiated deal, according to a separate statement released on Tuesday. A spokesperson for Javice's attorney said in an email that the Frank founder denied the government's allegations and that her lawyer declined to comment. The fintech founder allegedly exaggerated the amount of Frank's 300,000 student loan customers in the months leading up to JPMorgan's acquisition of the company in September 2021, according to the SEC's complaint. Gurbir S. Grewal, director of the SEC's Division of Enforcement, said in a statement that Javice "lied about Frank's success" to induce JPMorgan into making a deal. "Even nonpublic, early-stage companies must be truthful in their representations," Grewal said.

Student aid startup founder arrested on fraud charges -- The founder of Frank, a student loan assistance startup company that J.P. Morgan Chase acquired for $175 million two years ago, has been arrested on charges that she duped the financial giant by dramatically inflating the number of customers her company had, authorities said Tuesday. Charlie Javice, 31, of Miami Beach, Florida, was arrested Monday night in New Jersey on conspiracy, wire and bank fraud charges. A charging document in Manhattan federal court said she claimed her company had over four million users when it had fewer than 300,000 customers. Authorities said Javice, who appeared on the Forbes 2019 “30 Under 30” list, would have earned $45 million from the fraud. Javice and her lawyer declined to comment as they left court after Javice signed a $2 million bond and agreed to curfew and possible electronic monitoring if court officers decide it is necessary. She also agreed not to contact key figures in the case — including investors — except for her mother and her mother’s boyfriend. In a release, U.S. Attorney Damian Williams said Javice “engaged in a brazen scheme” to defraud the acquiring financial company by fabricating data to support lies she told in a bid to make tens of millions of dollars from the sale of her company.

The Non-Profit Industrial Complex Helps Keep the Student Loan Debt Crisis Going -In some of the latest news on the student loan debt crisis, the pause in federal student loan payments that has been in effect since March 2020 may soon come to an end, and Senator Elizabeth Warren is out with another one of her famous plans that would attempt to make the peonage a bit more tolerable. Meanwhile, US student loan debt totals roughly $1.76 trillion.The numbers and half-measures are familiar enough by now, but today I wanted to look at the circular role that nonprofits play in pushing high school students towards loans.The gist is that lenders and loan guarantors made massive profits. Some lenders and guarantors actually became nonprofits themselves due to new federal rules under the Obama administration. Either way, the money made off the backs of students, goes to a wide variety of nonprofits focused on “college access,” usually with an emphasis on racial justice and equity. The national non-profit rains money down onto a web of smaller, local non-profits all pushing higher education and making sure potential students know about their financial options.Many of these organizations offer scholarships, but they are often nowhere close to enough to cover the annual cost, leaving students reliant on lenders. Not to mention, universities are increasingly shifting costs that used to be covered by tuition to the “fees” category, where they can no longer be covered by scholarship money. There’s also the scholarship reduction trick. To be clear, I’m not arguing that anyone should not have “access” to higher education (everyone would have access if it was free), but the likes of Navient using it to launder its reputation withstuff like this?With Navient’s support, Boys & Girls Clubs of America launched a new digital program to help young people and their families learn about financial aid and how to pay for college. The data-driven curriculum includes activities for teens to learn about college costs, understand financial aid, complete the FAFSA, learn how to find scholarships and understand student loans. The program also helps Club members identify trusted adults who can guide them through their journey, including discussion guides and parent handouts. The digital curriculum, Diplomas to Degrees, can be accessed through Boys & Girls Clubs of America’s online platform, MyFuture.One of many major hurdles to doing anything about a nation of student debtors is the entrenched PMC at the nonprofits. According to the Urban Institute, there were 2,161 higher education public charities as of 2016, the most recent year it had data available.Let’s take the National College Attainment Network (NCAN) as a starting point…

Study shows two-thirds of US nursing home residents received antibiotics - A study of US nursing homes found that two-thirds of long-term residents were prescribed at least one antibiotic during their stay, researchers reported yesterday in the Journal of Infectious Diseases.Using Medicare Part D claims data, researchers from the Brown University School of Public Health conducted a longitudinal, retrospective study of antibiotic use in Medicare beneficiaries who had spent at least 101 days in a nursing home (NH) from 2013 through 2017. They calculated period-prevalence estimates to assess any use of antibiotics during these long-stay NH episodes, along with the rate of antibiotic prescribing and antibiotic days of therapy (DOT).Among 1,375,062 long-stay NH residents (67.3% female, 80.5% White), 66.2% were prescribed at least one antibiotic during their stay. Residents who received an antibiotic were slightly older (82.6 vs 81.9 years) and had longer stays (712.3 vs 451.7 days) than those who received no antibiotics.The overall rate of antibiotic prescribing was 387 days per 1,000 person-years, and the rate of DOTs was 41.6 per 1,000 days of care. The most prevalent antibiotic classes were fluoroquinolones (36.2%), sulfonamides and related agents (16.2%), and first-generation cephalosporins (15.9%). Levofloxacin (22.1%), ciprofloxacin (19.4%), and trimethoprim-sulfamethoxazole (15.9%) were the most prevalent antibiotics.The authors say the study overcomes some of the limitations of previous estimates of antibiotic use in US nursing facilities, most of which have relied on cross-sectional data and 1-day point-prevalence surveys."Our nationally representative results provide important foundational evidence on antibiotic prescribing in U.S. NHs and can inform future research, antibiotics stewardship initiatives, and policies to improve prescribing practices," the authors wrote.

FDA forces unproven premature birth drug Makena off market (AP) — The Food and Drug Administration on Thursday ordered the immediate market withdrawal of a drug intended to prevent premature births, which has remained available for years despite data showing it doesn’t help pregnant women. The decision follows repeated efforts by Swiss drugmaker Covis Pharma to keep Makena on the U.S. market while it conducted additional studies. The medication was the only drug approved in the U.S. to help reduce the risk of early births in women with a history of preterm deliveries. In recent months, Covis finally bowed to FDA pressure, proposing a “winding down” period of several months so that women taking the drug could complete their treatment. The FDA rejected that and said Thursday that the action against Makena and several generic versions should take effect immediately. “Makena and its generics are no longer approved and cannot lawfully be distributed in interstate commerce,” the agency said in a statement.

The Rising Prevalence Of Autism - According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), the prevalence of autism among U.S. children has risen significantly in recent years. Statista's Felix Richter reports that while 6.7 in 1,000 children were diagnosed with autism spectrum disorder (ASD) in 2000, that number had risen to 27.6 in 1,000 children by 2020. This means that currently 1 in 36 children in the U.S. get diagnosed with ASD, up from 1 in 150 children 20 years ago. The reasons for this increase in prevalence are not fully understood and are likely complex. Some possible factors that have been proposed include better awareness and screening for autism, changes in diagnostic criteria, and environmental or genetic factors.Regardless of the reasons, this rise in the number of children with autism highlights the importance of early identification and intervention to help children with ASD reach their full potential.In recent years, major progress has been made in increasing awareness and acceptance of autism.Thanks to that progress, many people are now aware that autism spectrum disorders are a very diverse group of conditions, that go far beyond the often-stereotypical depictions of autism in film and television.According to the World Health Organization, autism spectrum disorders are “characterized by some degree of difficulty with social interaction and communication. Other characteristics are atypical patterns of activities and behaviours, such as difficulty with transition from one activity to another, a focus on details and unusual reactions to sensations.”

COVID caused brain damage in 2 infants infected during pregnancy -US study (Reuters) - Researchers at the University of Miami reported on Thursday what they believe are the first two confirmed cases in which the SARS-CoV-2 virus crossed a mother's placenta and caused brain damage in the infants they were carrying. Doctors previously had suspected this was possible, but until now, there was no direct evidence of COVID-19 in a mother's placenta or an infant's brain, the team told reporters at a news briefing. The babies were born to young mothers who tested positive for the virus during their second trimester at the height of the pandemic's Delta wave in 2020, before vaccines were available. The case studies were published in the journal Pediatrics. Several viruses are known to be capable of crossing the placenta and causing fetal brain damage, including Cytomegalovirus, Rubella, HIV and Zika. The SARS-CoV-2 virus has been detected in adult brain tissue, and some experts had suspected it could also damage fetal brain tissue. "This is the first time that we've been able to demonstrate the virus in a fetal organ with transplacental passage," Dr. Michael Paidas, chair of obstetrics and gynecology at the University of Miami, told the briefing. "That's why we think this is so important." The newborns had seizures from the first day of life. However, unlike Zika, the babies were not born with microcephaly, a condition marked by small head size. Instead, microcephaly developed over time as their brains stopped growing at a normal rate, the team said. Both infants had severe developmental delays. One of the children died at 13 months, and the other was in hospice care, the team said. Neither of the infants tested positive for the SARS-CoV-2 virus, but they did have high levels of COVID antibodies in their blood, Dr. Merline Benny, a neonatologist and assistant professor of pediatrics at the University of Miami, told the briefing. She said that suggests the virus crossed from the mother, through the placenta and to the baby.

Two infants born to COVID-infected mothers suffer severe brain damage -A University of Miami case study published today in Pediatrics suggests that SARS-CoV-2 breached the placenta, causing brain damage in two newborns.The infants, born to COVID-19–positive mothers, had seizures on the day of their birth, microcephaly (small head size), and substantial developmental delays over time. Repeated magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) demonstrated severe brain damage. Both mothers were infected in the second trimester, and one was reinfected in the third trimester.While neither newborn was COVID-positive at birth, both had SARS-CoV-2 antibodies and elevated levels of blood inflammatory markers. The placentas showed abnormalities such as inadequate blood flow to the fetus and increased inflammatory markers. One infant died unexpectedly at 13 months, the brain showing evidence of SARS-CoV-2 infection.The clinical findings, placental abnormalities, and inflammatory findings strongly suggest that second-trimester maternal COVID-19 infection triggered an inflammatory response and oxidative stress injury to the fetus and placenta that damaged the fetal brain, the researchers said."The demonstration of SARS-CoV-2 in the deceased infant's brain also raises the possibility that SARS-CoV-2 infection of the fetal brain directly contributed to ongoing brain injury," they wrote. "Our cases also highlight the shortcomings of current fetal monitoring for assessment of fetal well-being, especially when the target of injury is the fetal brain."The researchers, however, emphasize that these cases, the first of their kind to be reported, are rare. "We're trying to understand what made these two pregnancies different, so we can direct research towards protecting vulnerable babies," senior author Shahnaz Duara, MD, said in a University of Miami news release.The authors recommend that women get vaccinated against COVID-19 before or during pregnancy, breastfeed and, if infected, wear a mask to prevent transmission to the newborn.

FDA expected to authorize second bivalent COVID booster for risk groups The Food and Drug Administration (FDA) within the next few weeks will authorize second bivalent (two-strain) COVID vaccine boosters for the highest risk groups, officials with knowledge of the plans told theWashington Post.The boosters will be authorized for people who are at least 65 years old or have weakened immune systems and given at least 4 months after the first bivalent booster. FDA officials told the post that the policy change will be "permissive" rather than a formal recommendation. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) is expected to endorse the FDA's action, but it's not clear if its vaccine advisory group will meet to discuss the issue.In January, the FDA's vaccine advisory committee proposed a plan for annual COVID boosters in the fall for the majority of people, which would involve an updated version of the vaccine. However, given waning protection from mRNA vaccination, there has been some concern that such a plan could leave vulnerable groups with little protection until then. Some countries, including the United Kingdom, have already rolled out second bivalent booster doses for the highest risk groups.

Study: Monoclonal antibodies may slash risk of severe COVID-19 outcomes -Monoclonal antibodies (mAbs) given within 2 days of a COVID-19 diagnosis lowered the risk of hospitalization or death by 39%, estimates a hypothetical randomized study using observational data published today in the Annals of Internal Medicine.University of Pittsburgh Medical Center (UPMC) researchers randomly assigned 7,706 high-risk COVID-19 patients aged 12 years and older to receive either mAbs (bamlanivimab, bamlanivimab-etesevimab, sotrovimab, bebtelovimab, or casirivimab-imdevimab) or no treatment from December 8, 2020, to August 31, 2022.The risk of hospitalization or death by 28 days was 4.6% among the 2,571 mAb recipients, compared with 7.6% among the 5,135 matched control patients (risk ratio [RR], 0.61). Estimated relative risks suggested reduced odds for hospitalization or death across all mAbs. The RR for patients with compromised immune systems, regardless of age, was 0.45.Subgroup analyses showed that patients who received mAbs during periods dominated by the Alpha and Delta variants had estimated respective risk ratios of 0.55 and 0.53, compared with 0.71 during the Omicron period. The difference, the researchers said, likely reflects the more deadly nature of the earlier variants and lower levels of immunity earlier in the pandemic."Right now, COVID-19 has a relatively low risk of death for the general population, but we have seen how quickly this virus can mutate and spread," coauthor Erin McCreary, PharmD, said in a UPMC press release. "Nobody can say with certainty that a future variant won’t be more deadly. Should that happen, our real-world data give reassurance that investing in the infrastructure and health care worker knowledge to quickly give antibody treatments keeps people in the communities we serve alive and out of the hospital."

Doctors Appeal Ruling In Favor Of FDA Over Ivermectin Posts, Urge Court To Intervene -- A group of doctors is urging a U.S. court to block the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) from issuing guidance on using ivermectin, in an appeal lodged after a district court judge rejected their bid. The FDA “cannot advise whether or for what purpose a doctor should prescribe, or a patient should take, an approved drug,” lawyers for Drs. Paul Marik, Mary Talley Bowden, and Robert Apter said in a February brief to the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Fifth Circuit.Ivermectin is approved for several uses, including treating parasites. It is not approved for COVID-19, but prescribing drugs for a different purpose from which they were approved is common and known as off-label use.Apter, Bowden, and Marik have all prescribed patients ivermectin but got into trouble with various organizations, who cited the FDA’s warning not to treat COVID-19 with ivermectin.

Danish study finds sharp rise in extended sick leave after COVID infection - As part of an effort to better flesh out the burden of long COVID, Danish researchers today reported a threefold increase in extended sick leave, defined as lasting longer than 30 days, in people who had recovered from COVID, compared to workers who weren't infected.The team based at Denmark's Statens Serum Institute publishedtheir findings on March 31 on the preprint server medRxiv.The study combined a survey designed to tease out the impact of long COVID with data from the national health registry. They included responses from people who were sick from November 2020 to February 2021, a period when the original SARS-CoV-2 virus and the Alpha variant circulated.In their analysis, researchers included 37,482 polymerase chain reaction (PCR)-confirmed COVID-19 cases and compared them with 51,336 people who tested negative. They defined sick leave as taking more than 30 days off work 1 to 9 months after testing positive for COVID.Most Danish employees have fully paid sick leave benefits, with employers generally covering the first 2 to 4 weeks and municipalities covering the remainder.They found that an additional 33 people per 1,000 took substantial sick leave in the postacute period, a threefold increase compared to those who didn't have COVID.Risk factors were being female, being age 50 and older, and having certain underlying health conditions such as fibromyalgia, chronic lung disease, and obesity.Also, investigators found that 20.1% of people who tested positive had a registered ICD-10 code for long COVID."Patients who receive a long COVID diagnosis represent only a small proportion of individuals suffering from post-acute symptoms; as such, the fact that one in five of those experiencing substantial sick leave also have a long COVID diagnosis supports the validity of using substantial sick leave as a proxy for long COVID burden," the authors wrote.It's unclear why women were a risk group for substantial sick leave following COVID-19 infection, and the group said more research examining age and sex interactions, as well as the impact of comorbidities, on long COVID outcomes are needed.

Maine Gov. Janet Mills contracts COVID-19 for second time, will miss first lady Jill Biden's visit -Democratic Gov. Janet Mills will have to miss a visit by first lady Jill Biden this week because she has contracted COVID-19 for a second time, officials said. Mills tested positive on Sunday and will isolate for a minimum of five days, consistent with state and federal heath guidelines. "Other than a scratchy throat, I feel fine," she said Sunday evening in a statement. "I will work remotely over the next few days and I look forward to getting back to the office later this week." Maine Gov. Janet Mills tested positive for coronavirus for the second time. She will have to miss her visit with the first lady that was set for this week. Maine Gov. Janet Mills tested positive for coronavirus for the second time. She will have to miss her visit with the first lady that was set for this week. (AP Photo/Robert F. Bukaty) Because of the timing, the governor will be in isolation when the first lady, a teacher, pays a visit to Southern Maine Community College in South Portland on Wednesday. Mills, 75, also contracted COVID-19 in April 2022 and recovered quickly. She attributes being fully vaccinated and boosted for her mild symptoms and good prognosis.

‘Kraken’ Variant Surging In India Might Be Most Infectious Covid Strain Yet | Kaiser Health News - The World Health Organization has its eye on a new COVID variant thought to be driving a new surge of cases in India—at a time when reported cases are down in much of the rest of the world. XBB.1.16, dubbed “Arcturus” by variant trackers, is very similar to U.S. dominant “Kraken” XBB.1.5—the most transmissible COVID variant yet, Maria Van Kerkhove, COVID-19 technical lead for the WHO, said earlier this week at a news conference. But additional mutations in the virus’s spike protein, which attaches to and infects human cells, has the potential to make the variant more infectious and even cause more severe disease. For this reason, and due to rising cases in the East, XBB.1.16 is considered “one to watch,” Van Kerkhove says. (Prater, 3/31) CIDRAP: WHO Tracking Omicron XBB.1.16 Subvariant, Rising Cases In Some Countries At a Mar 29 press briefing, Maria Van Kerkhove, PhD, the WHO's technical lead for COVID-19, said XBB.1.16 has a similar profile to XBB.1.5 but has an additional changes in the spike protein. She said XBB.1.16 has replaced other circulating subvariants in India. So far, there are about 800 sequences from 22 countries, mostly from India. Van Kerkhove said in lab studies, XBB.1.16 has shown signs of increased infectivity as well as potentially increased pathogenicity. "So this is one to watch. It's been in circulation for a few months," she said. "We haven't seen a change in severity in individuals or in populations, but that's why we have these systems in place." (Schnirring, 3/31)

Coronavirus variant XBB 1.16 spotted in 18 US states - The new SARS-CoV-2 omicron variant XBB.1.16 has spurred increased hospitalizations and deaths in some countries. In the U.S., the dominant variant is still XBB.1.5, but health officials say other variants are on the rise. XBB variants 1.9.1, XBB, and XBB.1.5.1 are on the rise in the U.S. according to the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota in Minneapolis. The new XBB 1.16 variant has also been identified in several states. XBB 1.16 has been circulating for a few months, according to Maria Van Kerkhove, PhD, the World Health Organization's technical lead for COVID-19. While the variant is gaining the most traction in Southeast Asia and the Middle East, there have been confirmed cases in at least 18 U.S. states, according to Fortune. According to reported data, the states with XBB.1.16 cases are: California, Delaware, Florida, Georgia, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana, Minnesota, Nevada, New Jersey, New York, North Carolina Ohio, Pennsylvania, Texas Virginia, and Washington. A descendant of the new subvariant, known as XBB.1.16.1, has also been found in California, Florida, Illinois, Iowa, Massachusetts, Michigan, Missouri, Nebraska, New Jersey, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Texas, Virginia and Washington. At this time, health experts at the WHO are continuing to monitor cases and changes in the variant globally.

Covid cases doubling in 4-5 days, says top expert - Covid-19 infections in India are doubling every 4-5 days, a top epidemiologist cautioned, indicating that the pandemic is still far from being under control despite the return of near-normalcy across society and the economy. New daily covid-19 cases, which stood at 1,500 at the end of March, have since jumped to cross 3,000. India on Sunday reported 3,824 new covid cases and five deaths, with an active caseload of 18,389. The total number of cases stands at 44.8 million, and deaths at 530,881 in the last three years of the pandemic. “There is no doubt that covid-19 cases are doubling, and it is clearly visible," said the scientist who monitors covid-19 trends at Pune’s National Institute of Virology. “It is concerning that suddenly, after several months, cases are increasing. There could be three possible reasons — first, the immunity of the booster dose might be waning. Secondly, the variant XBB.1.16 is also different, with a higher transmissibility rate. Thirdly, people have started to show laxity in following covid-19 appropriate behaviour. At the same time, deaths are happening, but the fatality numbers are not so high. Most of the deaths happening right now are those individuals who have co-morbid conditions, with covid being one of the factors," he said, requesting anonymity. Queries emailed to a health ministry spokesperson remained unanswered till press time. Infections will rise and fall since none of the available vaccines can stop the transmission, the scientist said. “XBB.1.16 has now been reported in 22 countries, and this variant is predominant in India. We need to monitor the trend. It’s not just the virus. It is also people’s behaviour and how they spread it. We need to see what these events are which are enhancing this spread. We need to follow the mask practice rigorously," he added.According to the Indian SARS-CoV-2 Genomics Consortium (INSACOG), Omicron and its sub-lineages remain dominant in India. “An increase in infection rate has been observed, especially in western, southern and northern parts of India. A newly emerged recombinant variant XBB.1.16 has been observed in different parts of India, accounting for 38.2% of the infections to date. Among the samples collected till the third week of March 2023, XBB continued to be the most commonly circulating Omicron sub-lineage. A few BA.2.10 and BA.2.75 sub-lineage was detected in some part of India, whereas XBB was the most prevalent sub-lineage of the Omicron variant," according to an INSACOG bulletin. According to health ministry data, most new cases are reported from Kerala (27%), Maharashtra (27%), Gujarat (14%), Delhi (8%) and Tamil Nadu (7%), dominated by the XBB.1.16 variant. Globally, nearly 3.7 million new cases and 26,000 deaths have been reported in the last 28 days. There has been a continued increasing trend in the proportions of recombinant lineages globally, the health ministry said.

Coronavirus XBB Symptoms: XBB 1.16 accounts for 60% of COVID cases, finds data: What do we know so far on severity, transmission, symptoms --With the new COVID variant XBB 1.16 on loose, the COVID cases in the country are rising rapidly. COVID accounts for 60% of the COVID cases as per Gujarat Biotechnology Research Centre (GBRC) data, TOI reported. A Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy (CIDRAP), University of Minnesota report citing Maria Van Kerkhove, PhD, the WHO's technical lead for COVID-19 has said that XBB.1.16 has replaced other circulating sub variants in India.The WHO COVID lead has also said that of the 800 sequences they have obtained from 22 countries, most of them are from India.As per lab studies, Van Kerkhove said, XBB.1.16 has shown signs of increased infectivity as well as potentially increased pathogenicity.India reported the highest COVID cases in six months. The union government and state governments have issued advisory and have increased testing and surveillance in the country. So far no change in the pattern or type of COVID symptoms has come to notice.The classic symptoms associated with COVID caused by previous strains of the coronavirus are seen currently as well.The common signs are fever, cough, sore throat, runny nose, fatigue, muscle ache and abdominal issues. "So this is one to watch. It's been in circulation for a few months," she said. "We haven't seen a change in severity in individuals or in populations, but that's why we have these systems in place," the CIDRAP report added.""We're still in a public health emergency of international concern at a global level and a pandemic. The virus is still circulating. But we are in a much better situation than we were at the beginning of this pandemic," she also said. As per the World Health Organisation's weekly epidemiological update on COVID globally, nearly 3.6 million new cases and over 25 000 deaths were reported in from 27 February to 26 March 2023."Despite an overall downward trend, important to note that several countries have recently reported significant increases in cases and there are consistently 5-10,000 deaths/week," Van Kerkhove has said. The WHO added the XBB 1.16 variant under monitoring on March 22.Currently, WHO is closely tracking one variant of interest (VOI), XBB.1.5, and six variants under monitoring (VUMs)-BQ.1, BA.2.75, CH.1.1, XBB, XBF and XBB.1.16. XBB.1.16 is a recombinant of BA.2.10.1 and BA.2.75 and has three mutations in the spike protein at E180V, F486P and K478R. Of these three mutations, the mutations at position 478 of the COVID spike protein have been associated with decreased antibody neutralization, increased transmissibility, and pathogenicity."However, so far reports do not indicate a rise in hospitalizations, ICU admissions, or deaths due to XBB.1.16. Further, there are currently no reported laboratory studies on markers of disease severity for XBB.1.16," the WHO's weekly report says. Currently, the Omicron variant is circulating worldwide.Among the sub variants of the Omicron, XBB 1.16 along with XBB is seen in 119 countries, BQ.1 and BA.2.75 are seen in 141 and 119 countries, respectively.

On COVID treatments, it’s Big Pharma vs. everyone else -- World-class Kabuki theatre took the stage at the U.S. International Trade Commission (USITC) last week. Big Pharma interests raged en masse: Death and misery would befall us all if the U.S. government supports temporarily waiving intellectual property rules so people in poor countries can also access COVID-19 tests and treatments. There is just one problem: The proposal they were dramatically trashing doesn’t exist. It is true that most people in developing countries have no access to the tests and treatments that allow many of us to return to pre-pandemic life. It’s also true that in October 2020, South Africa and India proposed a broad, if temporary, waiver of certain World Trade Organization (WTO) intellectual property monopolies that limit global access to COVID-19 vaccines as well as tests and treatments. The Biden administration initially announced it would support a waiver for just COVID-19 vaccines. But that proposal was ultimately killed after pharmaceutical companies launched a lobbying onslaught in London, D.C., Berlin and Brussels. Despite support for a broad COVID meds waiver by most WTO member countries, in June 2022 WTO members only agreed to a very cynical deal: Restrictions that limit developing countries from exporting generic versions of COVID vaccines to other poor countries would be lifted, but not the intellectual property barriers blocking those countries’ ability to make generic vaccines. The only upside to the deal was a requirement that WTO countries had to decide within six months to extend the exporting permissions to COVID treatments and tests. And that could make a life and death difference for literally hundreds of millions of people who now have no access because the tests and treatments controlled by the brand name firms are too expensive. Generic versions of many existing COVID treatments, which are simpler to make than the vaccines and subject to fewer IP barriers, could be made under existing WTO rules. More importantly, that is also true for hundreds of COVID treatments in the pipeline that will prove even more effective. That is because the WTO’s Trade Related Aspects of Intellectual Property (TRIPS) agreement allows countries to issue what is called a “compulsory license.” This allows a generic producer to make a medicine without permission from, but with compensation to, a patent holder. But under these existing WTO rules, a country that can make generics cannot export more than half of the doses. That means countries that can produce cannot achieve the economies of scale needed to gear up manufacturing and those that cannot produce won’t have any supply. The only proposal on the table is whether to extend the permission for a developing country that the WTO rules already allow to produce generic treatments and tests to export those to other developing countries. That’s the subject of the current ITC investigation.

COVID vaccines were developed on the American people's dime. They’ll soon quadruple in price | Cognoscenti For many in the biomedical world, the U.S. Senate’s recent hearing on Moderna’s pricing of the mRNA COVID-19 vaccine was eerily familiar. Moderna (and Pfizer) recently announced that they will raise the price of their vaccines over four-fold to $130 per dose. During the hearing, the CEO of Moderna, based in Cambridge, Massachusetts, was asked to account for the company’s steep price hike.The chair of the committee, Sen. Bernie Sanders (D-Vt.), emphasized that Moderna, with profits surpassing $20 billion from its COVID-19 vaccine, has made several of its executives "overnight billionaires" during the pandemic. Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-La.), defended industry and the importance of capitalism in innovation, claiming that the hearing sent a hostile signal to future government partners. It was reminiscent of past congressional hearings about drug pricing, when we heard the usual arguments industry executives lean on when they need to justify their egregious profits for life-saving drugs and treatments. From HIV and hepatitis C therapies to insulin, we have seen this story before.In reality, physicians like us must care for patients who suffer under the thumb of these pricing practices. The situation is particularly dire for the global poor. Alongside our colleagues in Haiti, Uganda and the Asia Pacific islands, we have cared for patients who die because their families and healthcare systems cannot afford the vaccines, antibiotics, chemotherapy, or other basic medical technologies required to save them.COVID-19 is just the latest example of global medical apartheid: in sub-Saharan Africa, most countries have yet to vaccinate even half of their population against the virus. Early COVID-19 vaccination campaigns around the world were thwarted by rich countries hoarding vaccines, which limited vaccine supply. Many of the same health systems that are struggling also have limited access to personal protective equipment, diagnostic tests, intensive care units and the health workforce capacity needed to treat severe COVID-19 or other serious illnesses. These global inequities have long been accepted as an immutable status quo.As physicians, we are told a specific story about “how medical science advances": The biomedical industry drives innovation by amassing colossal profits to fund research and development activities; products are made available at tremendously high prices in the U.S. and other wealthy countries first, and then (after some heart-wrenching period of time) they supposedly eventually “trickle down” to the rest of the world. But they never fully do. When we call for this system to change — as we and our colleagues have done for years — we are either wholesale ignored or scolded for potentially suppressing the financial incentives “needed” for biomedical innovation. There have been some hard-fought successes — such as a recent ruling that out-of-pocket costs for insulin in the U.S. will be capped at $35 per month for Medicare patients. However, many argue that this does not go far enough for a medicine whose inventors, 100 years ago, sold the patent for $1 with the understanding that it would be made available to the public. This ruling also does nothing to address the 50% of patients with diabetes globally for whom the medicine is still priced out of reach.   

Flour-linked Salmonella outbreak sickens people in 11 states - The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) recently announced a multistate SalmonellaInfantis outbreak with a suspected link to flour, since most people reported eating raw dough or batter made with flour before they became ill.Twelve cases have been reported, and illness onsets range from December 22, 2022, to February 13. Three people have been hospitalized, with no deaths reported. Patient ages range from 12 to 81, and 92% are female. The CDC said the number of sick people is probably much higher, because many people recover without needing medical care.Of seven people interviewed about their food exposures before they got sick, six said they had eaten dough or batter. Flour was the only common ingredient, and health officials are doing trace-back investigations to see if there's a common brand.Whole genome sequencing (WGS) suggests that the people infected in the outbreak got sick from eating the same kind of food. Also, WGS from 12 patient samples didn't predict resistance to any antibiotics.Flour has been linked to foodborne illnesses before. The CDC repeated its warning that flour is considered a raw food and to avoid eating raw dough or batter.

CDC: Salmonella outbreak affecting 11 states, hospitalizing 3 linked to flour – A salmonella outbreak that has sickened people in 11 states is renewing a call from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention: stop eating raw cookie dough. The agency confirmed last week it has launched an investigation into the outbreak, noting 12 illnesses have been reported. Three individuals have required hospitalization.“The true number of sick people in this outbreak is likely much higher than the number reported, and the outbreak may not be limited to the states with known illnesses,” the CDC warned. So far, these states have each reported one case of an individual being infected with the salmonella outbreak strain: California, Iowa, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, New York, Ohio, Oregon, Tennessee, and Virginia. Illinois has reported two cases. CDC investigators say illnesses were confirmed between early December 2022 and mid-February 2023. It takes up to a month to determine if someone who falls ill is part of an outbreak, the agency explains. Of the seven people state and local public health officials were able to speak with, six said they ate raw dough or batter in the week before they became sick. The only common ingredient across all of the dough and batter was flour.The CDC is now trying to determine the specific brand of flour responsible for the illnesses.“Flour doesn’t look like raw food, but most flour is raw,” the agency explains. “This means it hasn’t been treated to kill germs that cause food poisoning.” Those germs could include salmonella, which is killed when the flour is cooked or baked.

Flu cases are ticking up, what you need to know about influenza B - As fears of a "tripledemic" die down, health officials say they are seeing an uptick of a particular strain of the flu: influenza B.According to data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the percentage of tests that are positive for influenza B has increased from 0.12% the week ending Jan. 7 to 0.36% the week ending March 25.Meanwhile, over the same period, the percentage of tests positive for influenza A -- the most common flu strain -- has declined from 8.58% to 0.58%. Meanwhile, states are showing similar trends. In New York, as of the week ending March 25, of the 2,013 samples subtyped, 64.16% were identified as influenza B, state health department data shows.Dr. John Brownstein, an epidemiologist and chief innovation officer at Boston Children's Hospital, told ABC News that it's not surprising to see an uptick of influenza B toward the end of the flu season.However, due to few to no cases of influenza reported during the first two years of the COVID-19 pandemic, people may have forgotten how the flu normally behaves."We have to remember that, overall, we're returning to a somewhat normal respiratory virus season," said Brownstein, an ABC News contributor. "Influenza B is often later in the season. ... It's not a surprise at all that we're seeing flu B and, as part of our return to normal, we have to remember that flu still has an impact on population health."Since the beginning of the year, hospital admissions for flu have been declining, from 12,883 the week ending Jan. 7 to 1,222 the week ending March 25.Brownstein said the decline of other viruses as helped prevent hospitals from being overwhelmed but advised Americans to stay vigilant.

RSV cases in US show signs of return to pre-pandemic seasonality - CDC - (Reuters) - Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) circulation is showing signs of return to pre-pandemic seasonality in the U.S. after two years of irregular onsets and peaks, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) said on Thursday. Typically, cases of RSV virus that can cause severe illness or death in the very young and old rose in October before waning in April. But during the two years of the COVID-19 pandemic, the circulation pattern changed. RSV cases in the most recent season started in June 2022 and peaked in November, while cases in the previous year started spreading in May and lasted through January 2022, the CDC said, adding that in the fall of 2020, cases were far lower than any usual season. The varying timing could be challenging for drugmakers racing to get their RSV vaccines to the market. Pfizer Inc (PFE.N) and GSK plc both have vaccines for people aged 60 and above that they hope to have approved in the U.S. and Europe this year, while Moderna Inc's (MRNA.O) candidate is behind the competition in development. Each year, RSV infections typically result in about 58,000-80,000 hospitalizations among children aged below 5 years, and 60,000-160,000 hospitalizations among 65-year-olds and above in the United States, the study said. The researchers from CDC on Thursday urged policy makers to continue surveillance this year due to uncertainty in the RSV case trends.

Global warming can aggravate multiple sclerosis symptoms. Here’s what you can do. Strange weather in Los Angeles in February 2023 may have led to a spike in symptoms for people with multiple sclerosis, and Dr. Barbara Giesser’s practice was flooded with calls.“The weather has been a little bit weird. It’s been rainy, and got actually pretty hot, and then got cold,” said Giesser, a neurologist and multiple sclerosis specialist with the Pacific Neuroscience Institute. “I’ve been hearing from a lot of patients, you know: ‘My feet are numb and tingly. I’ve had it before but it’s worse this week, or my balance is a little worse this week, or I’m just feeling more fatigued this week,’” Giesser recalled. Globally, millions of people have multiple sclerosis, often called MS. It’s a disease in which the body’s immune system mistakenly attacks the nervous system. The staggeringly wide variety of symptoms includes blurred vision and fatigue, double vision, muscle weakness, loss of bladder control, cognitive difficulties, and loss of sensation. Symptoms vary from one person to the next depending on where the body’s immune system attacks its nerve-signaling architecture.Researchers have found that increased numbers of MS clinic visits and reports of MS symptoms are linked to days with hotter temperatures and large temperature fluctuations. Already, climate change has made heat waves more frequent and intense, putting more patients at risk of aggravated symptoms.Most patients find that heat causes a flare-up. Anything that raises someone’s core temperature — fevers, hot baths, exercise, exposure to warm environments — can make it harder for electrical signals to travel along already damaged nerve segments, triggering an onslaught of sensory, cognitive, vision, or movement problems. The risk of weather-related flares will only intensify as the climate changes more.“There are a number of ways that climate disruption threatens the health and welfare of neurologic patients with multiple sclerosis,” said Dr. Bruce Snyder, a clinical professor of neurology at the University of Minnesota medical school. “Many of these consequences relate both directly to greenhouse gas emissions [and] warming and to related issues, such as air and water pollution.” Snyder and other neurologists are working to warn their patients so that they know what to expect and how to protect themselves; patients can take steps to alleviate the symptoms, such as watching the weather forecast, finding an air-conditioned place to escape the heat, staying hydrated, and usingcooling devices if they need to be in the heat.

CDC warns of drug-resistant, deadly fungus: How is it spread? -The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has identified Candida auris as an “urgent” threat as it spreads rapidly through U.S. hospitals, tripling in just three years. The fungus is spreading “at an alarming rate,” the CDC says, but how exactly is it spreading?This fungus likely originated in a health care setting, explained Melissa Nolan, an assistant professor of epidemiology and biostatistics at the University of South Carolina. Counterintuitively, because hospitals are disinfected so frequently, they can be the birthplace of bacteria or fungus that are resistant to antimicrobial cleaning products and to treatments. “If you think about the amount of cleaning that we do in the hospital versus what you do at home, it’s significantly greater in a hospital setting. So every time we’re spraying Clorox … that just creates the opportunity for more resistance,” Nolan explained. “Over time, those pathogens have been able to evolve and adapt to resistance.”Candida auris is especially good at developing on surfaces, Nolan explained. Once it grows and populates in a hospital room, for example, it is most likely to infect a patient through a medical device, like a catheter or a PICC line that delivers medicine or fluids straight into the bloodstream.“Imagine a patient that’s been in the hospital for two weeks, for example. Even though they’re cleaning those lines regularly, you still have the opportunity for this pathogen to get on that piece of plastic equipment and then get into your bloodstream,” said Nolan. The fungus can also enter somebody’s system through ears or wounds, the Associated Press reports.

Pharmacist-led follow-up for negative bacterial cultures could cut antibiotic use, study finds -A pharmacist-led, post-discharge follow-up program for negative bacterial cultures at a community hospital showed the potential for significantly limiting unnecessary antibiotic exposure, researchers reported last week in the American Journal of Health-System Pharmacy.The retrospective study, conducted by members of the pharmacy department at a 350-bed community hospital in Michigan that has had an established pharmacist-led culture follow-up program since 2015, reviewed bacterial cultures of adult patients treated and released from the hospital's emergency department (ED) or urgent care (UC) in August 2022. The aim was to characterize the proportion of patients with negative urine culture or chlamydia polymerase chain-reaction (PCR) test results and identify opportunities to de-prescribe antibiotics during follow-up telephone calls. While several studies have evaluated the impact of pharmacist-led follow up on antibiotic therapy with respect to positive cultures, there are no data regarding the impact when cultures are negative.Of the 398 cultures reviewed, 208 (52%) had negative results, and 50 patients (24%) with negative results were prescribed empiric antibiotics on discharge. The median duration of antibiotic treatment was 7 days, while the median time to culture finalization was 2 days, resulting in an opportunity to save a median of 5 days of antibiotic exposure per patient and 236 total antibiotic days over the month.Thirty-two patients (15.3%) followed up with their primary care physician within 7 days; of these patients, 1 (0.05%) had their antibiotic prescription discontinued by the primary care physician. There were no documented adverse drug reactions (ADRs).Annualized, the intervention has the potential to save more than 2,800 days of unnecessary antibiotic therapy, the study authors noted.

Antibiotic use breeds 'two-way' resistance in humans and animals - In a study billed as the first of its kind, an international team of researchers report that the association between antibiotic consumption and antimicrobial resistance (AMR) in humans and animals is a "two-way street." The modeling study, published yesterday in the Lancet Planetary Health, used global data on drug-resistant pathogens and human and animal antibiotic consumption to show that in both humans and food-producing animals, unsurprisingly, increased antibiotic use is associated with increased AMR. But the model also estimated that increased antibiotic use by food-producing animals is associated with increased resistance in the bacterial pathogens that infect humans, while increased antibiotic use in humans is linked to increased animal AMR rates.In addition, the study found that in some parts of the world, socioeconomic factors, such as lack of access to clean water and sanitation, may have more of an influence on AMR than antibiotic consumption. AMR in humans and animals is focused on WHO priority pathogens, including carbapenem-resistantAcinetobacter baumannii and Pseudomonas aeruginosa, third-generation cephalosporin-resistant Escherichia coli and Klebsiella pneumoniae, oxacillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus, and vancomycin-resistantEnterococcus faecium. Animal AMR rates were based on average country-level resistance in cattle, pigs, and chickens. The raw data showed that the highest rates of AMR for human pathogens were observed in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) and the lowest in high-income countries (HICs)—a finding that has been observed in previous studies. Conversely, AMR rates in food-producing animals were highest in HICs and lowest in LMICs. But the model also showed a bidirectional association. Antibiotic consumption in food-producing animals was positively linked with resistance in critical priority pathogens (OR, 1.07; 95% CI, 1.01 to 1.13), while consumption of carbapenems and cephalosporin antibiotics in humans was positively linked with AMR in food-producing animals (OR, 1.05; 95% CI, 1.01 to 1.09). The authors say these findings, taken together, highlight the fact that while antibiotic consumption is a significant driver of AMR, it's not the only factor. And addressing global AMR will require more than just reducing rates of antibiotic consumption in humans and food-producing animals."Designing interventions around this holistic picture of resistance will be essential in tackling what has rapidly become one of the biggest threats to global health," senior author Laith Yakob, DPhil, MSc, of LSHTM, said in a press release. "Going forward, we recommend tighter country policies and regulations on antibiotic use and prescription among animals and humans, as well as improved governance, transparency and accountability, particularly among countries with the highest disease burdens."

Mozambique works to contain cholera outbreak after cyclone (AP) — Weeks after massive Cyclone Freddy hit Mozambique for a second time, the still-flooded country is facing a spiraling cholera outbreak that threatens to add to the devastation. There were over 19,000 confirmed cases of cholera across eight of Mozambique’s provinces as of March 27, according to U.N. Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, a figure which had almost doubled in a week. Freddy was likely the longest-lived cyclone ever, lasting over five weeks and hitting Mozambique twice. The tropical storm killed 165 people in Mozambique, 17 in Madagascar and 676 in Malawi. More than 530 people are still missing in Malawi two weeks later so that country’s death toll could well exceed 1,200. Freddy made its second landfall in Mozambique’s Zambezia province, where scores of villages remain flooded and water supplies are still contaminated. At a hospital in Quelimane, Zambezia’s provincial capital, National Institute of Health director general Eduardo Sam Gudo Jr reported there were 600 new confirmed cases a day in Quelimane district alone, but said that the real number may be as high as 1,000. At least 31 died of cholera in Zambezia and over 3,200 were hospitalized between March 15 and 29, according to data from the Ministry of Health. Cases are highest in the neighborhood of Icidua on the city outskirts, where most residents live in bamboo or adobe mud huts and fetch water in buckets from communal wells. Flooding brought by the cyclone has exposed many of these wells to water contaminated with sewage overflow and other sources of bacteria. Cholera spreads through feces, often when it gets into drinking water. But until water pipelines ruptured in the floods are repaired, these wells are the only source of water for those in Icidua and communities like it. For now, temporary solutions offer the only hope of stemming the outbreak. Volunteers go from house to house distributing bottles of Certeza, a local chlorine-based water purifier. Each bottle should last a family for a week, but supplies are running low as local production struggles to keep pace with demand. There are also not enough people to distribute the Certeza, even if greater supplies could be procured, Gudo said. In the meantime, health workers are struggling to treat the infected with many clinics and hospitals badly damaged. “The cyclone destroyed the infrastructure here,” said José da Costa Silva, the clinical director of the Icidua health center. “We are working in parts of the hospital that were not destroyed. Some colleagues are working outside in the open because there’s not enough space available for everyone.” Eighty health centers in total were affected by Freddy’s two landfalls in Mozambique, according to INGD, the country’s disaster management agency.

Recent French mpox cluster includes fully vaccinated patients - French officials recently posted an update on an mpox cluster in the Center-Val de Loire region, with 17 cases reported since the first of the year, including 14 since March 1. All occurred in men who have sex with men who had several partners but didn't attend any common events. Five of the patients had received two mpox vaccine doses in 2022. Also, five had received one smallpox dose during childhood, plus one dose in 2022.Given the high proportion of vaccinated people in the cluster, 59%, Public Health France and its regional partners investigated the development, finding that the proportion of vaccinated cases is higher than the 25% observed at the national level between October and February."It is appropriate to await the results of real-life efficacy studies which will allow better interpretation of these data. To date, there is little perspective on the efficacy of 3rd generation vaccines against mpox infection," Public Health France said in its statement.In other mpox developments, the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) and the World Health Organization (WHO) European regional office yesterday posted a joint update on mpox, which reported 28 new cases from 7 countries since the last update 4 weeks ago. Sixteen of the cases are part of the French cluster. Six were from Spain. Other countries reporting cases are Portugal, the Netherlands, Switzerland, Greece, and Malta.

First-ever outbreaks of Marburg Virus Disease in Equatorial Guinea and Tanzania - The outbreak of Marburg Virus Disease (MVD) spreading since it was first confirmed on February 12 in the northeastern rural province of Kié-Ntem of the West African country of Equatorial Guinea. It has now reached the coastal city and economic center, Bata, home to approximately half a million people. As of last week, four cases had been detected in the port city, which raised the threat for possible multi-country transmission of the disease, which has a fatality rate similar to Ebola. In a social media update from last Wednesday on the first-ever epidemic of the “hemorrhagic fever” caused by the Marburg virus, Equatorial Guinea’s Ministry of Health and Social Welfare announced that thus far there had been 13 cases with nine confirmed deaths. Two are hospitalized and one has only shown mild symptoms. There are 825 contacts that are being followed.Even more concerning is that on March 21, 2023, almost 3,000 kilometers to the east of Equatorial Guinea, Tanzania confirmed its first-ever cases of MVD in the country’s northwest Kagera region, on the western shore of Lake Victoria and adjacent to Uganda’s border. These two recent outbreaks of infections with Marburg Virus do not appear to be epidemiologically related. However, viral sequencing is underway to confirm these are separate events. It is also worth recalling that Uganda had recently faced one of the largest outbreaks of the Sudan variant of Ebola in two decades. Only on January 11, 2023, did Uganda’s Ministry of Health declare the end of the outbreak, which had affected nine districts and the country’s highly populated capital, Kampala, killing 77 of 164 infected people.In Tanzania, five of eight confirmed cases have died, including a health care worker, while the other three are under treatment. The WHO noted that they have identified 161 contacts who are being monitored. Although the WHO is initiating “ring vaccination” trials in Equatorial Guinea with three experimental vaccines—produced by Sabin Vaccine Institute, Janssen, and Public Health Vaccines (PHV)—which are similar to Ebola Zaire vaccines but specifically developed for use against Marburg virus, there are currently no approved treatments or vaccines available to protect the people of the affected countries. And of the experimental vaccines, there are only a few hundred doses of Sabin and PHV while Janssen has a few thousand jabs available.

Equatorial Guinea confirms another Marburg virus case -Equatorial Guinea's health ministry on Mar 31 reported 1 more Marburg virus case, raising the outbreak total to 14.In an update today, the ministry today said 10 people are hospitalized, including 2 of the confirmed patients and 8 who have suspected infections. Officials also reported one more death raising the total in the confirmed cases to 10.Earlier in the outbreak, which began in January, the country reported 20 probable cases, all fatal. Currently, 604 people are under contact monitoring.The cases have been reported across four districts, raising concerns about widespread activity. Eight of the cases have been reported from Bata, a port city with a population of about 173,000.The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) recently issued a level 2 travel alert for Equatorial Guinea due to its Marburg virus, the country's first. The CDC urged people to avoid nonessential travel to affected provinces. The CDC has also issued a level 1 travel watch notice for Tanzania, another African country battling its first Marburg virus outbreak.

New Outbreaks in Africa Raise Alarms About Marburg, a Deadly Cousin of Ebola -- Two concurrent outbreaks of the Marburg virus, a close cousin of Ebola that can kill as many as 90% of the people it infects, are raising critical questions about the behavior of this mysterious bat-borne pathogen and global efforts to prepare for potential pandemics. Marburg, a hemorrhagic fever, is rare: Just a handful of outbreaks have been reported since the virus was identified in 1967. But a steady uptick in occurrences in Africa in recent years is raising alarm. Marburg causes high fever, vomiting, diarrhea and, in the most severe cases, bleeding from orifices. It spreads between people via direct contact with the blood or other bodily fluids of infected people and with surfaces and materials such as clothing contaminated with these fluids. One of the two outbreaks, in Tanzania in East Africa, seems to have been brought under control, with just two people left in quarantine. But in the other, in Equatorial Guinea on the west coast, spread of the virus is ongoing, and the World Health Organization said last week that the country was not being transparent in reporting cases. There are no treatments or vaccines for Marburg, but there are some candidates that have shown promise in phase 1 clinical trials. However, these candidates must be tested in active outbreaks to prove they work, and so far, no vaccine supplies have been delivered to test in the current outbreaks. “The moment an outbreak is detected there should be a mechanism of moving in quickly,” said Dr. John Amuasi, the head of the global health department at Kwame Nkrumah University of Science and Technology in Ghana who investigated a Marburg outbreak in that country last year. The WHO and others are good at rapid response to control the spread of a virus, he said, but lack a similarly swift response for research. It requires ready-to-ship stockpiles of the vaccine candidates and researchers equipped to operate without putting additional strain on an already struggling health system; neither currently exists. The WHO says it has drafted a research protocol that can be applied in these outbreaks and to any other filovirus — the family that includes Marburg and Ebola — and it has been scrambling for more than a month to get trials underway, working against a ticking clock. If outbreak response works well — isolating cases and tracing contacts — the epidemic will quickly be controlled, which seems to be the case in Tanzania. If the response doesn’t go as well (as in Equatorial Guinea), there are fears of a widespread outbreak and a redoubled need for vaccination.

Child growth and development hampered by PFAS in blood, study says — CNN - — Potentially toxic chemicals found in everyday products, including fast-food wrappers, makeup and carpeting, are altering hormonal and metabolic pathways needed for human growth and development, according to a new study.Researchers analyzed study samples from young children, teens and young adults, all of whom had a mixture of different synthetic compounds called perfluoroalkyl and polyfluoroalkyl substances — or PFAS — in their blood, including PFOS, PFOA, PFHxS, PFNA, PFHpS and PFDA.The US Environmental Protection Agency recently announced historic rules strictly controlling levels of several of these chemicals in the nation’s drinking water.“Exposure to a combination of PFAS not only disrupted lipid and amino acid metabolism but also altered thyroid hormone function in the children,” said lead author Jesse Goodrich, assistant professor of population and public health sciences at the University of Southern California’s Keck School of Medicine.For children to properly develop, the thyroid makes two key hormones that play a role in blood pressure control and how the body makes and uses protein, fats and carbohydrates, the Mayo Clinic noted. These chemical messengers “affect every cell in the body,” according to the website.Amino acids are needed to make enzymes, hormones, proteins and other needed molecules, while lipids control how vitamins are stored, assist in hormone production and regulate how fat is turned into energy and used or stored.“This study is doing an in-depth analysis of how PFAS exposure is not just impacting hormone levels in humans, but impacting different metabolic pathways as well,” said David Andrews, a senior scientist at the Environmental Working Group, an advocacy group that has created a national map of PFAS-contaminated sites.“Changes in these metabolic markers can be indicative of a number of different health outcomes in the future for the children, such as an increased susceptibility to obesity, insulin resistance, increased risk for fatty liver disease and potentially cancer,” said Andrews, who was not involved in the study. The research, published in the journal Environmental Health Perspectives, had a unique finding as well: Results showed a combination of six PFAS had a more pronounced impact on metabolism and hormone function than any one alone. “That’s important because most people carry a mixture of the chemicals in their blood,” Goodrich said. “We believe no other studies have looked at this mixture of chemicals in children and how it impacts metabolic pathways.”

Raincoats, Undies, School Uniforms: Are Your Clothes Dripping in ‘Forever Chemicals’? -There could be more than just fashion risks involved when buying a pair of leggings or a raincoat.Just how much risk is still not clear, but toxic chemicals have been found in hundreds of consumer products and clothing bought off the racks nationwide.Thousands of perfluoroalkyl and polyfluoroalkyl substances, or PFAS, exist since the first ones were invented in the 1940s to prevent stains and sticking. PFAS chemicals are used in nonstick cookware, water-repellent clothing, and firefighting foam. Their manufacture and persistence in products have contaminated drinking water nationwide. Also known as “forever chemicals,” these substances do not break down in the environment and can accumulate in our bodies over time.Drinking water is widely considered the greatest source of potential exposure and harm. And, in March, the Environmental Protection Agency proposed the first national standard for PFAS levels in drinking water. But the chemicals can also pollute soil, fish, livestock, and food products. Researchers say they are present in the blood of nearly all Americans.Until now, federal regulations on PFAS in consumer products have largely focused on a handful of the older-generation forever chemicals, such as PFOA, or perfluorooctanoic acid. But new state-level laws are targeting all forever chemicals.Consumers concerned about clothing are also turning to the courts. A torrent of recent class-action lawsuits claim brands falsely advertise their products as environmentally sustainable or healthy while containing toxic levels of PFAS chemicals. In January, Thinx, which makes reusable period underwear, agreed to pay up to $5 million to settle a suit. Another lawsuit, against REI, largely targeting its raincoat line, is proceeding in court.From production to being worn, washed, and then disposed, “PFAS in clothing and textiles can lead to harmful exposures,” claimed Avinash Kar, a senior attorney at the National Resources Defense Council, an international nonprofit environmental advocacy organization.Although the full health risks of wearing togs alleged to be toxic are still unknown, the potential implications are wide-reaching. A report from the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine linked PFAS exposure to cancer, thyroid dysfunction, small changes in birth weight, and high cholesterol, among other concerns.So how concerned should consumers be about wearing clothing with forever chemicals in them?PFAS have been found in a wide variety of garments such as rain jackets, hiking pants, shirts, andyoga pants and sports bras made by popular brands like Lululemon and Athleta.Forever chemicals are used as surface treatments to block water and stains. In fact, a 2022 report by Toxic-Free Future, an environmental health research and advocacy organization, found that nearly three-quarters of products labeled as water- or stain-resistant tested positive for them.The group points to research demonstrating that fabrics with that type of PFAS, called side-chain fluorinated polymers, emit volatile chemicals into the air and, when washed, into the water. “What you can expect is that a raincoat that has this surface treatment, over time, is releasing PFAS to the environment,” said Erika Schreder, Toxic-Free Future’s science director.PFAS can also be used as a membrane — a thin layer sandwiched in the fabric that blocks water from passing through. This technology is found in products made with Gore-Tex. Such breathable yet waterproof layers of fabric are used in jackets, pants, boots, and gloves in dozens of brands of outdoors wear. Sometimes, garments have both membranes and surface treatments.A study published last year by the American Chemical Society found textile products sold in the U.S. and Canada contained high concentrations of PFAS in materials used in children’s uniforms marketed as stain-resistant.“This was concerning to us because these uniforms are on up to eight or 10 hours a day, every day, by children during their school year,” said Marta Venier, an assistant professor at Indiana University-Bloomington and co-author of the study. “Children are particularly susceptible to exposure to chemicals because their organs are still developing.” But skin-touching fabric is only one way people are likely to be exposed to these chemicals. PFAS have found their way into most households through water, air, dust, and soap. PFAS can also shed from carpeting or furniture, as well as fabric treatments sprayed on furniture and clothing.

Artificial turf potentially linked to cancer deaths of six Phillies ball players — A report on a possible link between a rare brain cancer that killed six professional US baseball players and toxic chemicals in artificial turf is raising anew round of questions over whether synthetic sports fields pose a health threat to athletes and others who use them. The six athletes, who all died from glioblastoma, played most of their careers with the Philadelphia Phillies, a team that for decades competed on artificial turf in Veterans Stadium, the Philadelphia Inquirer reported. All artificial turf is made with toxic PFAS compounds and some types are still produced with recycled tires that can contain heavy metals, benzene, volatile organic compounds and other carcinogens, and a growing number of US municipalities and states have banned or proposed banning them.The Phillies players’ deaths are more evidence that regulators need to prohibit synthetic fields, said Kyla Bennett, a former Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) scientist now with the Public Employees for Environmental Responsibility non-profit.“There is a high number of Philadelphia Phillies diagnosed with this rare cancer and it looks weird, so that should be a red flag,” said Bennett. “We don’t know what those chemicals are doing to us – what happened to exercising caution when we’re talking about human health?” Kyla Bennett, of Public Employees for Environmental ResponsibilityHowever, all brain cancer experts who have spoken with the Guardian or were quoted in previous stories on the Phillies deaths cautioned that it is impossible to prove that the ball players’ cancers were caused by PFAS from the turf.“The bottom line is anything in the world is possible, but what’s plausible and provable are totally different things,” said Henry Friedman, a neuro-oncologist at Duke University who treated two of the players. “There is no way to now say, ‘If these chemicals are there, they are causing the tumors.’”The federal government estimates about 12,000 synthetic turf fields exist in the US, and at least 1,200 more are installed annually. Only five professional baseball teams still use synthetic fields, the Inquirer reported.Several layers comprise synthetic fields: plastic grass blades, plastic backing that holds the blades in place and infill that weighs down the turf. Until recently, infill was always made with recycled rubber tires called crumb rubber, which EPA testing has found contains high levels of dangerous chemicals.Recent independent testing of multiple artificial fields has found the presence of highly toxic PFAS compounds like 6:2 FTOH and PFOS. The EPA recently revised its health advisory for PFOS to state that in effect no level of exposure to it in drinking water is safe. The Inquirer bought pieces of the Phillies artificial turf and had it tested at two labs, and found it contained 16 types of PFAS, including PFOS.PFAS, or per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances, are a class of about 12,000 chemicals often used to make products resist water, stains and heat. They are called “forever chemicals” because they don’t naturally break down, and are linked to cancer, liver problems, thyroid issues, birth defects, kidney disease, decreased immunity and other serious health problems.PFAS can be ingested, inhaled and absorbed through the skin – or even enter the body through open wounds.

Veterans Stadium found to have contained ’16 different types of PFAS’ – Tug McGraw. Darren Daulton. John Vukovich. John Oates. Ken Brett. David West. Six names of former MLB players and members of thePhiladelphia Phillies. All of them passed away due to aggressive brain cancer glioblastoma. All of them died before the age of 60.Many were puzzled as to why a group of otherwise formerly healthy players died of a serious disease affecting 13,000 people a year. Afteran investigation conducted by the Philadelphia Inquirer, an answer emerged that might be the cause of these unfortunate deaths. It also proved that these aren’t the only illnesses that emerged from the use of one massive part of Veterans Stadium: the turf.The report says that the specific type of turf used at Veterans Stadium from 1971 to 2001. After that, they switched to a new type of turf called NexTurf. But the original turf that was used for 30 years was sold to the public in small sealed bags. After West’s death in 2022, four of those were purchased by the Inquirer and tested.According to results, over 16 types of harmful chemicals were found in those samples, many ones which do not break down in the body. These are also the types of chemicals that have been found to cause kidney and testicular issues. The six men out of the 532 who played their careers at Veterans Stadium who developed brain cancer did so at three times more than average men.As it is rarer brain cancer, the likelihood that more Phillies will develop the disease isn’t gone but are low.Veterans Stadium was demolished in March 2004, and Citizens Bank Park was opened weeks later in April.

What does PFAS do to the body? — NPR Illinois podcast 7:13 - PFAS are harmful chemicals found in products we use every day. They’re even prevalent in drinking water. Scientists say consuming even small amounts can be toxic and lead to health concerns. WBUR’s Gabrielle Emanuel explains what PFAS do to our bodies and how you can reduce your exposure.

Firefighters: Donating Blood May Reduce PFAS Levels in Your Blood — According to research on Australian firefighters, per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) levels in the blood can be reduced if a person donates blood every 12 weeks or plasma every 6 weeks.PFAS do not break down and can accumulate over time in the environment and in the human body. Exposures to this family of chemicals have been linked to cancer and other health effects.Firefighters are at higher risk because they are exposed to these chemicals at high levels from multiple sources, including:

• Protective gear (to enhance water resistance).
• Products of combustion (present in many household products that burn in fires).
• Some firefighting foams (to increase fire suppression capabilities).

Researchers at the University of Arizona Health Sciences have started a new study to test the effectiveness of blood or plasma donations in lowering levels of PFAS, and whether lower levels of PFAS reduce the risk of cancer or cardiovascular disease.The study will build on the Australian firefighter research to determine if firefighters in the United States will see the same benefit as those in Australia. If so, the research will be expanded to see if a reduction in PFAS levels will result in beneficial biological effects.This study is the latest in a series of research projects by the University of Arizona Health Sciences that contribute to the understanding of how occupational exposures impact firefighters’ health. Last year, this research team, in collaboration with the Tucson Fire Department, provided evidence to the International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC) that occupational exposure as a firefighter causes cancer.

New York Joins the Growing List of States with Bans on PFAS in Apparel - Following in California’s footsteps, New York has recently joined a litany of States banning per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (“PFAS”) in clothing and apparel.New York Governor Kathy Hochul signed the bill into law on December 30, 2022, which will officially eliminate the use of PFAS in all apparel by December 31, 2023. The law follows on the heels of New York’s PFAS ban in food packaging that became effective on December 31, 2022.In September of last year, California enacted a similar ban on PFAS in clothing. The Golden State’s law prohibits the distribution, sale, or offering for sale of any new textiles that contain PFAS beginning on January 1, 2025. While New York clearly drew upon the California law, and similar laws in other states, the New York law is less detailed. For example, while California prescribes a compliance process by which manufacturers are to provide retailers and distributors with a “certificate of compliance,” no such provision is included in New York. Similarly, California also includes a provision, absent in New York, requiring the use of the “least toxic alternative” when substituting for PFAS.Perhaps the most interesting difference in the two state laws, however, is that while both ban the intentional use of PFAS in apparel (i.e., chemicals with an intended function or technical effect in the product), California also attempts to address residual PFAS levels by including a ban on total organic fluorine content above 100 ppm by 2025 and 50 ppm by 2027.“Other state are considering action on PFAS in garments, including Washington and California, which will address the problem via their existing regulatory processes. States such as Vermont and Massachusetts have pending legislation that could effect the use of PFAS in garments.”Notably, the New York law does not apply to “professional uniforms or outerwear intended for extreme conditions.” Presumably, further guidance will be forthcoming to further define this exemption, which is intended to address both severe wet-weather and dangerous fire fighting or similar conditions. For instance, PFAS serve a dual function in apparel worn by firefighters: PFAS aid in flame-suppression foams and fire-suppressive clothing, and they are water resistant, meaning the material does not become soaked and heavy during use.The bill eliminates the use of PFAS in all apparel by December 31, 2023

Biden Administration to Restrict Cancer-Causing ‘Forever Chemicals’ — — For the first time, the federal government will require utilities to remove from drinking water two toxic chemicals found in everything from waterproof clothing to dental floss and even toilet paper, the Environmental Protection Agency announced on Tuesday.Michael S. Regan, the administrator of the E.P.A., said the government intends to require near-zero levels of perfluoroalkyl and polyfluoroalkyl substances, part of a class of chemicals known as known as PFAS. Exposure to the chemicals has been linked to cancer, liver damage, fertility and thyroid problems, asthma and other health effects.The synthetic chemicals are so ubiquitous in modern life that nearly all Americans, including newborn babies, carry PFAS in their bloodstream. Dubbed “forever chemicals” because they do not break down and persist in the environment, the chemicals seep into soil and water. As many as 200 million Americans are exposed to PFAS in their tap water, according to a peer reviewed 2020 study.Last year the E.P. A. found the chemicals could cause harm at levels “much lower than previously understood” and that almost no level of exposure was safe. It advised that drinking water contain no more than 0.004 parts per trillion of perfluorooctanoic acid and 0.02 parts per trillion of perfluorooctanesulfonic acid. Previously, the agency had advised that drinking water contain no more than 70 parts per trillion of the chemicals.The E.P.A. will accept public comments on the proposed regulation for 60 days before it will take effect and become the legal limit.Public health groups and environmental advocates said the crackdown was long overdue.“Regulating these six highly toxic PFAS chemicals in drinking water is a historic start to protecting our families and communities,” said Anna Reade, a senior scientist with the Natural Resources Defense Council, an environmental group. “We cannot safeguard public health until we get off this toxic treadmill of regulating one PFAS at a time when thousands of other PFAS remain unregulated.”

PFAS ‘Forever Chemicals’ Are Everywhere: Here’s What That Means for Wildlife — Images of starving polar bears staggering across the snow earned the species the dubious honor of being the “poster child” of climate change. But now another human-caused environmental danger threatens these apex predators: pollution from a class of 12,000 chemicals known as per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS). And they’re not the only ones.The nonprofit Environmental Working Group analyzed hundreds of recent peer-reviewed scientific studies and found more than 120 different PFAS compounds in wildlife. Some 330 species were affected, spanning nearly every continent — and that’s just some of what scientists have identified so far.PFAS have been around since the 1940s in paint, cleaning products, food packaging, nonstick pans, stain-resistant fabric, waterproof clothing, and firefighting foam used at military bases and airports. Dubbed “forever chemicals” because they don’t break down in the environment, they migrate into the soil, water and air — and then into the food chain.In people different PFAS chemicals have been linked to a range of risk factors, including increased cholesterol, increased risk of pre-eclampsia in pregnant women, ​​decreased vaccine response in children, and increased risk of kidney or testicular cancer.“The scientific literature shows that PFAS exposure is one of those risk factors that make our western lifestyle unhealthy,” says Catharina Vendl, a wildlife health researcher at the University of New South Wales, Sydney, who is mapping the health risk of PFAS in wildlife. “And unfortunately, wildlife has become unwillingly part of our western lifestyle.”We have some idea of the human impacts of PFAS pollution, but we still have a long way to go in understanding what it does to wildlife.The first study published about PFAS in wildlife was in 2001, “which is shocking,” says Vendl, “because the chemicals have been around for ages.” For the next 15 or 20 years, she says, the research was mostly focused on measuring concentrations of PFAS compounds in the bodies of wild animals.Wherever researchers looked for PFAS, seemingly, they found it, as a map of studies from Environmental Working Group revealed. In recent years they’ve also started working to determine how these chemicals actually affect wild animals’ health — a much more daunting task.What they’ve learned so far is that there’s evidence that PFAS can pose a threat to immune function, hormone balance and fertility. For example, studies have found that higher levels of PFAS correlates to higher incidence of disease in sea otters, increased susceptibility to disease in dolphins, reduced foraging behavior in crayfish, and lower hatching success in seaturtles.The researchers concluded that the data “reaffirms the need to reduce exposure and cease production and use of a chemical class that, through its ubiquity and persistence, is a global environmental health concern.”Although the problem is global, one clear pattern emerges: Wild animals who live near areas with larger human populations tend to have higher levels of PFAS in their bodies.

Environmental exposure possible in Chile's human H5 avian flu case - An epidemiologic investigation into a Chilean man's H5 avian flu infection has found that environmental exposure is the most likely source, the World Health Organization (WHO) said today in an update. The 53-year-old man's infection marked the second such case from South America.The man is from Antofagasta region in northern Chile. He had no underlying health conditions or recent travel. His symptoms began on March 13, and he was hospitalized on March 22 after his condition worsened. He was admitted to the intensive care unit, where he received oseltamivir and was placed on a ventilator due to pneumonia. A bronchoalveolar swab was positive for an unsubtypeable influenza A virus, which was further characterized as H5.So far, contact monitoring hasn't identified any related infections, though one health worker has respiratory symptoms and is undergoing further testing. The WHO said between December and February, highly pathogenic avian flu was tested in Antofagasta region wild birds (pelicans and penguins) and sea mammals (sea lions). The WHO said the man may have had environmental exposure in areas close to his house where either sick birds or mammals were found.

Canada reports H5N1 avian flu in pet dog - Canadian health officials yesterday announced that H5N1 avian influenza has been detected in a domestic dog, the country's first such case, adding to the list of mammal species infected in ongoing activity involving the 2.3.4.4b clade of the virus.In a joint statement, the Canadian Food Inspection Agency and the Public Health Agency of Canada said the result from the dog was confirmed on April 1. The dog is from Oshawa, Ontario, located about 40 miles east of Toronto. The dog got sick after chewing on a dead goose and died. A necropsy revealed respiratory symptoms involvement, and further investigation is underway.The groups said the number of documented cases in non-avian species is low, despite the fact that the virus has fueled large outbreaks in poultry over the past few years. They urged pet owners to avoid feeding pets raw meat from game birds or poultry and not allow them to eat or play with dead birds found outside. When H5N1 outbreaks in poultry struck countries in Asia in 2005 and 2006, health officials in some countries, including Thailand, reported the virus in a few dogs and cats on the farms.

Japan running out of space to bury bird flu infected chickens - Bird flu in Japan has caused the country the loss of a substantial number of chickens and now it has not enough space to bury them, CNN reported. According to the Japanese state media, NHK, "16 out of 26 prefectures in the country did not have enough land to dispose of culled birds properly." All 26 prefectures had reported record avian flu outbreaks in recent months leading the prices of poultry and eggs to surge. The flu naturally occurs among wild aquatic birds and they have the ability to transmit the virus to other animals through various sources such as saliva and body excretions, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. As local authorities, in order to prevent the spread, kill and bury the infected animals, the shortage of land for their burial has caused a new problem for the authorities, NHK noted. NHK also reported that more than 17 million chickens have been killed this season — the record highest. In 2020, Japan killed nearly 9.9 million chickens when bird flu struck the country. It was its last record.

More Than 150 Cattle Dead; 1,100 Animals Seized From Nebraska Operation - Two Lincoln County, Nebraska, men were arrested on numerous felony counts of alleged animal neglect and cruelty, after law enforcement authorities and brand inspectors found more than 150 dead cattle on a county ranch and seized more than 1,100 animals. According to information from the Lincoln County Sheriff's office, father and son Larry, 75, and Matthew Mikoloyck, 41, were charged with 150 counts of animal cruelty and neglect resulting in death, which is a class IIIA felony for each offense. Both men were jailed and bonded out on 10% of $100,000 from the Lincoln County Detention Center. Class IIIA felonies in Nebraska are punishable by up to three years in prison and nine to 18 months of post-release supervision. "During the investigation, information was gained that numerous cattle, horses and other livestock were not being taken cared for. Deputies, with the help of the Nebraska Brand Inspectors Office and Nebraska State Patrol aircraft, completed an investigative search warrant to inspect the livestock on at least five sections of property" operated by the Mikoloycks. Investigators not only found more than 150 dead cattle on March 1, 2023, but also "observed numerous sick and dying cattle including bulls, cows and calves." Deputies seized and transported more than 1,000 bulls, cows and calves to a North Platte sale barn operated by North Platte Stockyards LLC where a licensed veterinarian inspected them. "Numerous cattle had to be put down on scene, as they were very sick, injured and dying," the Lincoln County Sheriff's Office said. Deputies observed "very little substantial food sources" for the animals and no water to sustain most of the herd, according to the Lincoln County sheriff's news release.NTV News reported that on Jan. 23, 2023, a Logan County sheriff's deputy was called to the area of Avenue 70 and Road 10 in the county after receiving a report of cattle on the roadway. Larry Mikoloyck was issued a citation for having eight head of cattle on the roadway.NTV reports a deputy observed the cattle drinking from puddles and eating forage from alongside ditches and crop ground owned by other residents.On March 2, deputies from Lincoln County with the help of Nebraska Brand Inspectors, served a warrant to seize all the cattle on properties operated by the Mikoloycks. Deputies were assisted by the Logan County, Thomas County Sheriff's Office, and the Lincoln County Sheriff's Posse.

California Salmon Stocks Are Crashing. A Fishing Ban Looks Certain. -This week, officials are expected to shut down all commercial and recreational salmon fishing off California for 2023. Much will be canceled off neighboring Oregon, too.The reason: An alarming decline of fish stocks linked to the one-two punch of heavily engineered waterways and the supercharged heat and drought that come with climate change. There are new threats in the ocean, too, that are less understood but may be tied to global warming, according to researchers.Scientists and fishers had been braced for bad numbers. Conditions were terrible a couple of years earlier, when the salmon were young and tiny in low, overheated creeks and rivers in California. But as the fish counts came in and the models spit out figures, the numbers were even more dismal than expected.Of all the salmon in California, fall-run Chinook were the last ones robust enough for commercial fishing. But this year, fewer than 170,000 are expected to return to Central Valley rivers. That’s down from highs of over a million as recently as 1995.While some dips are normal, this one is not.“California salmon are in dire straits,” said Nate Mantua, a climate scientist who leads a team of salmon ecologists and biologists at National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association Fisheries in Santa Cruz, Calif.The shutdown would mean higher prices and no fresh local salmon in California this year, though it probably would have little or no effect beyond the region.Salmon are hardy survivors that have lived on Earth far longer than humans. They migrate hundreds of miles from the freshwater creeks where they hatch to the salty ocean and back again, leaping up waterfalls on the return trip. But what’s happening in California and Oregon, at the southern end of the range, scientists say, may be a harbinger of what’s to come in cooler waters farther north.“Most of the salmon populations around the entire Pacific Rim have been doing very, very poorly,”Pacific salmon will still be harvested off parts of Oregon, Washington and Alaska. It’s a complicated picture. Some varieties, like sockeye in Alaska’s Bristol Bay, are booming. But some Chinook stocks farther north have collapsed. Overall, scientists say, the picture is grim.

EPA proposal takes on health risks near US chemical plants -In what could prove a significant move for communities facing air pollution, the Environmental Protection Agency proposed on Thursday that chemical plants nationwide measure certain hazardous compounds that cross beyond their property lines and reduce them when they are too high. The proposed rules would reduce cancer risk and other exposure for communities that live close to harmful emitters, the EPA said. The data would be made public and the results would force companies to fix problems that increase emissions. “This is probably the most significant rule I’m experiencing in my 30 years of working in cancer alley,” said Beverly Wright executive director of the Deep South Center for Environmental Justice and member of the White House Environmental Justice Advisory Council. She referred to an area dense with petrochemical development along the Gulf coast. In the past, Wright said, even when emissions caused harm, residents weren’t able to sue and reduce the threat. The proposed measure is also intended to address short-term emissions spikes when plants start up, shut down and malfunction. If the proposal is finalized, it would impact roughly 200 chemical plants, the agency said. Fence line monitoring has long been a priority of the environmental justice movement and a number of refinery communities have won it in recent years. This measure would extend some of those changes nationwide.

For the First Time in Nearly Two Decades, the EPA Announces New Rules to Limit Toxic Air Pollutants From Chemical and Plastics Plants - The administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency used the smokestacks of Louisiana’s “Cancer Alley” as the backdrop on Thursday to announce new rules aimed at reducing harmful, toxic emissions from chemical and plastics plants across the country. Manufacturing facilities potentially subject to the new emissions controls, from New York to Oregon, are concentrated along the Gulf Coast in Louisiana and Texas, with clusters in Kentucky, Ohio and West Virginia. They often emit chemical byproducts that have been linked to cancer and other health risks and disproportionately impact communities of color and low-income white neighborhoods. These plants are already subject to what the EPA considers to be “maximum achievable control standards” to limit pollution. But Thursday’s proposed rules will require additional pollution control measures to counter continuing health risks those communities still face despite existing pollution controls. The new rules also reflect more current research findings on health risks from some chemicals, like the carcinogen ethylene oxide.It has been nearly two decades since the rules were last updated, so action was long overdue, environmental advocates said.Litigation by Earthjustice compelled EPA to meet a deadline of last Friday to decide whether to update the rules governing what Congress defines as “hazardous air pollutants.” The nonprofit environmental law group had represented several environmental groups including the Sierra Club, Louisiana Environmental Action Network, Concerned Citizens of St. John and California Communities Against Toxics.Regan said the rule would cut the emissions of dozens of toxic air toxic pollutants and focuses new attention on several highly toxic chemicals, most known to cause cancer in humans:

• ethylene oxide, a flammable gas used in manufacturing other chemicals that go into making a range of products, including antifreeze, textiles, plastics, detergents and adhesives.
• chloroprene, a liquid used in the production of neoprene at the Denka plant in La Place, Louisiana. Neoprene is found in wetsuits, gaskets, hoses and adhesives. EPA considers it likely to cause cancer in people.
• 1,3 butadiene, a highly flammable gas primarily used to make plastic and rubber products.
• benzene, a highly flammable liquid used to make other chemicals that go into plastics, resins, nylon, adhesives, sealants and synthetic fibers. It’s also used to make some types of rubbers, lubricants, dyes, detergents, drugs and pesticides.
• ethylene dichloride, a highly flammable liquid used to make plastic, polyvinyl chloride, resin, other chemicals and in the manufacturing of petroleum and coal products.
• vinyl chloride, a colorless gas usually handled as a liquid under pressure, used to make polyvinyl chloride (PVC) plastic and vinyl products.

CDC team got sick while investigating health risks from Ohio toxic train derailment - A team of seven US government investigators fell ill while studying the health impacts of the February derailment of a train carrying toxic chemicals through East Palestine, Ohio, according to the CDC. The group, including members of the Epidemic Intelligence Service, were going house-to-house surveying town residents near contaminated areas when they began feeling symptoms including sore throats, headaches, coughing and nausea. The group spent a day working from their hotel, before their symptoms quickly resolved, the agency told CNN. “Symptoms resolved for most team members later the same afternoon, and everyone resumed work on survey data collection within 24 hours. Impacted team members have not reported ongoing health effects,” a CDC spokesperson told the network. The public health agency did not initially disclose the team getting sick to the public. Two contractors working on the derailment for the EPA also reported health symptoms after working in an area with strong odors, CNN reported. The agency said that none of the other more than 100 EPA employees on the scene reported any issues. More than half of the people in a state survey reported headaches, anxiety, couching, fatigue, and irritated skin after the derailment, according to research released Friday from the Ohio Department of Health.Officials have said the water and air in East Palestine is safe to consume, despite rampant conspiracies online that following the crash and subsequent decision to conduct a controlled burn of some of the chemicals that were spilled.On Friday, governor Mike DeWine’s office confirmed 1,900 feet of railroad track at the crash site will be removed to allow for the excavation and removal of contaminated soil, and said testing at 157 private wells showed no contaminated water. As The Independent reported, public health experts say long-term testing is needed in East Palestine to monitor the potential health effects of exposure to the toxic materials transported by the train that derailed. “Byproducts from the burn could be very toxic and we don’t know yet know what they are,” Dr Erin Haynes, professor of preventive medicine and environmental health at the University of Kentucky told The Independent. “They have probably settled onto the soil. They’re in the homes on surfaces and they could be in the waterways in the sediments…We do not know the long-term consequences of that exposure.”

About 25 train cars derail in Montana, no injuries reported (AP) — About 25 train cars derailed Sunday in northwestern Montana, with no injuries or evacuations reported, authorities said. The cars, which were not believed to be carrying anything hazardous, derailed near the town of Paradise along the Clark Fork River, said Bill Brown, a dispatcher with the Sanders County Sheriff’s Office. Firefighters and representatives of Montana Rail Link, which was operating the train, were responding and investigating what the cars were carrying, he said. Photos posted on social media show some of the cars appearing to dip just into the river. The train cars did not release any hazardous materials, Montana Rail Link said in a statement. The company said the cause of the derailment was being investigated. “We are committed to addressing any impacts to the area as a result of this accident, prioritizing the safety of our employees and the public, and understanding the reasons for this incident,” the company said.

Photos: Over Two Dozen Train Cars Derail With Many Falling Into River - Online photos have surfaced showing a messy situation unfolding after a train derailed in Western Montana. According to NBC Montana, the train derailed around 9:20 a.m. local time on a track operated by the Montana Rail Link company. The incident occurred near the town of Quinns, located roughly 70 miles northwest of Missoula near the western Idaho border.Dominic Vitiello, a reporter for NBC Montana, shared photos from the scene on Monday, showing a frenzied tangle of rail cars stuck at various angles along the banks of a river, with some appearing to be partially submerged. “Around 9:20 a.m. calls came into... the Sanders County Sheriffs Office of a 25 car train derailment," Vitiello wrote in a series of tweets. "According to the Sanders County Sheriff's Office, the fire department is on scene and there is no current threat to the public. This happened on a Montana Rail Link line who have been notified of the derailment but no known company is identified yet."

Train Full Of Beer Derails In Montana -- Keeping track of what appears to be almost weekly freight train derailments across the country is becoming a challenging task. A notable derailment occurred in Paradise, Montana, on Sunday, where a train carrying a load of beer went off the rails. Plains-Paradise Rural Fire District said 25 cars derailed at around 0900 local time near Paradise. The fire department said there was "no current threat to public safety and no hazardous materials being released." Images from the scene reveal some of the boxcars were full of Coors Light and Blue Moon beer products. AP shared a picture of fishermen taking beer from the incident area. "The cause of the derailment is currently under investigation with MRL personnel and first responders," Montana Rail Link said in a statement. It comes after a series of train derailments in the US, including a Minnesota town that was evacuated last Thursday after a Burlington Northern Santa Fe train jumped the tracks and tankers carrying ethanol exploded. Meanwhile, cleanup from the Norfolk Southern Railway train derailment in Ohio in February is ongoing. What recently caught our attention is the increasing number of news stories on train derailments. Bloomberg data reveals that reports on derailments have reached an all-time high.

Biden vetoes congressional bid to undo his water regulations - President Biden on Thursday vetoed an attempt by Congress to undo waterway pollution regulations put forward by his administration — marking the second veto of his presidency and effectively killing the attempt to nullify the water rule. Majorities of both chambers of Congress had voted to nix the Biden rules, which defined which waters are subject to federal protections. The White House had previously announced that Biden would veto the congressional measure, which is unlikely to be able to get the two-thirds majority needed to override the veto. In a statement on the veto, Biden said that the water regulation “provides clear rules of the road that will help advance infrastructure projects, economic investments, and agricultural activities — all while protecting water quality and public health.” He added that without it, there would be greater uncertainty, which would “threaten economic growth.” Waters that receive federal protections require permits in order for industry to carry out activities that may pollute the waters like construction or mining. Right-wing opponents of the Biden administration’s rule say it is too broad and offers protection to waters that may not need them at the expense of industry. “By vetoing this Congressional Review Act resolution of disapproval, President Biden is ignoring the will of a bipartisan majority in Congress, leaving millions of Americans in limbo, and crippling future energy and infrastructure projects with red tape,” Sen. Shelley Moore Capito (R-W.Va.) said in a statement. “There’s a reason those who work in agriculture, building, mining, and small businesses of all kinds across America strongly supported our effort to block the Biden waters rule, and I’m disappointed the president chose to stand by his blatant executive overreach,” Capito added. However, the vote to get rid of the rule did receive some bipartisan support in both the Senate and the House.. In the Senate, four Democrats and Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (I-Ariz.), who caucuses with Democrats, voted to get rid of it; as did nine Democrats in the House. Nevertheless, which waters to protect has gone back and forth depending on which party is in the White House, with former President Trump significantly reducing which waters were protected compared to rules under the Obama administration.

At least 26 dead after tornadoes rake US Midwest, South(AP) — Storms that dropped possibly dozens of tornadoes killed at least 26 people in small towns and big cities across the South and Midwest, tearing a path through the Arkansas capital, collapsing the roof of a packed concert venue in Illinois and stunning people throughout the region Saturday with the damage’s scope. Confirmed or suspected tornadoes in at least eight states destroyed homes and businesses, splintered trees and laid waste to neighborhoods across a broad swath of the country. The dead included at least nine in one Tennessee county, four in the small town of Wynne, Arkansas, three in Sullivan, Indiana, and four in Illinois. Other deaths from the storms that hit Friday night into Saturday were reported in Alabama and Mississippi, along with one near Little Rock, Arkansas, where city officials said more than 2,600 buildings were in a tornado’s path. Residents of Wynne, a community of about 8,000 people 50 miles (80 kilometers) west of Memphis, Tennessee, woke Saturday to find the high school’s roof shredded and its windows blown out. Huge trees lay on the ground, their stumps reduced to nubs. Broken walls, windows and roofs pocked homes and businesses. Debris lay scattered inside the shells of homes and on lawns: clothing, insulation, toys, splintered furniture, a pickup truck with its windows shattered. Ashley Macmillan said she, her husband and their children huddled with their dogs in a small bathroom as a tornado passed, “praying and saying goodbye to each other, because we thought we were dead.” A falling tree seriously damaged their home, but they were unhurt. “We could feel the house shaking, we could hear loud noises, dishes rattling. And then it just got calm,” she said. Recovery was already underway, with workers using chainsaws and bulldozers to clear the area and utility crews restoring power. Nine people died in Tennessee’s McNairy County, east of Memphis, according to Patrick Sheehan, director the Tennessee Emergency Management Agency. “The majority of the damage has been done to homes and residential areas,” said David Leckner, the mayor of Adamsville. Gov. Bill Lee drove to the county Saturday to tour the destruction and comfort residents. He said the storm capped the “worst” week of his time as governor, coming days after a school shooting in Nashville that killed six people including a family friend whose funeral he and his wife, Maria, attended earlier in the day.

32 dead as tornadoes torment from Arkansas to Delaware — Residents across a wide swath of the U.S. raced Sunday to assess the destruction from fierce storms that spawned possibly dozens of tornadoes from the South and the Midwest into the Northeast, killing at least 32 people.The storms tore a path through the Arkansas capital and also collapsed the roof of a packed concert venue in Illinois, stunning people throughout the region with the scope of the damage.The number of deaths continued to grow Sunday.“While we are still assessing the full extent of the damage, we know families across America are mourning the loss of loved ones, desperately waiting for news of others fighting for their lives, and sorting through the rubble of their homes and businesses,” President Joe Biden said in a statement.Biden earlier declared broad areas of the country major disaster areas, making federal resources and financial aid available for recovery.Gov. Sarah Huckabee Sanders in Arkansas, where at least five people were killed, already had declared a state of emergency and activated the National Guard.Confirmed or suspected tornadoes in 11 states destroyed homes and businesses, splintered trees and laid waste to neighborhoods.The National Weather Service confirmed Sunday that a tornado was responsible for damage to several homes near Bridgeville, Delaware. One person was found dead inside a house heavily damaged by the storm Saturday night, Delaware State Police reported.It may take days to confirm all the recent tornadoes. The dead included at least nine in one Tennessee county, five in Indiana and four in Illinois.Other deaths from the storms that hit Friday night into Saturday were reported in Alabama and Mississippi.Residents of Wynne, Arkansas, a community of about 8,000 people 50 miles (80 kilometers) west of Memphis, Tennessee, woke Saturday to find the high school’s roof shredded and its windows blown out. At least four people died.

Northeast Ohio tornado confirmed -– The National Weather confirmed that a tornado touched down in Crawford County as severe storms swept through Ohio over the weekend.According to the National Weather Service in Cleveland, an EF-0 tornado touched down northwest of Bucyrus just before 2 a.m. Saturday.Officials say the tornado, with peak winds of roughly 85 miles per hour, caused damage within a 2.86-mile straight line.There were no reported injuries or deaths in the tornado, officials say.Communities across Northeast Ohio were left to clean up downed powerlines and trees, as well as damage to homes, churches, schools and city buildings. NWS: Damage in Madison Township caused by microburst, straight line winds. The National Weather Service also assessed extensive storm damage from a microburst in Richland County over the weekend.

Strong EF-3 tornado hits Bridgeville, Delaware - state’s strongest in over 60 years – (videos) The National Weather Service (NWS) confirmed that the city of Bridgeville in Delaware was hit by a strong EF-3 tornado on Saturday, April 1, 2023, making it the strongest tornado in the state since 1961. A line of severe thunderstorms swept through the Delaware region on Saturday night, April 1, 2023, resulting in a total of 10 tornadoes. Eight of these tornadoes occurred in New Jersey, one in Pennsylvania, and one in Delaware. All of them were part of a major tornado outbreak over a wide area of the Midwest and South in which at least 99 tornadoes were produced and at least 32 people killed.1 The Bridgeville-Ellendale Tornado tornado, rated EF-3, hit Bridgeville around 17:59 EDT (21:59 UTC), causing significant damage along its 23 km (14.3 miles) path, which ended in Ellendale, Delaware, around 18:19 EDT (22:19 UTC). It had an estimated peak wind speed of 225 km/h (140 mph) and a maximum path width of 640 m (700 yards). One fatality occurred from this tornado. The tornado began near the intersection of Polk Road and Dublin Hill Road, where a section of a small barn roof was blown off. The tornado continued east-northeast, crossing Seashore Highway, where a couple of wooden power poles were blown down, and several trees uprooted or snapped. A tree fell onto a house, causing significant collateral roof damage. The tornado continued eastward paralleling Newton Road, where a farmstead sustained significant tree damage. Farther east, more tree damage and snapped power poles were observed. Near the intersection of Precious Lane and Newton Road, a two-story house collapsed after appearing to have slid off its foundation. A small outbuilding was also severely damaged nearby, and debris from this area was blown several hundred yards east into nearby fields. Another farmstead was struck by the tornado as it continued east on Dale Farm Road. A large barn had two exterior walls blown out, and a smaller shed was blown over. Several trees were also snapped or uprooted on the property. The tornado continued east, crossing a railroad track and impacting a Delaware Department of Transportation facility, where it reached its estimated peak wind speeds of 225 km/h (140 mph). Along the railroad track, a half dozen or more wooden high-tension power poles were snapped and collapsed, along with two steel high-tension power poles. The Delaware Department of Transportation facility sustained significant damage. A maintenance garage building experienced a collapse of an exterior wall and a large portion of its roof. Two smaller garage buildings nearby experienced several garage doors were blown out, roofing material removal, and exterior wall damage. A building storing road salt had its roof destroyed. The facility’s office building had a few windows blown out, siding, and roofing material blown off. Some of the siding material was found embedded into the ground downstream where a Delaware Environmental Observing System mesonet gauge measured a 158 km/h (98 mph) wind gust at 3 meters (10 feet) above the ground at 18:05 EDT (22:05 UTC).

Baseball-sized hail hits Illinois as millions remain under tornado threat. — Another powerful storm system could lash 70 million people from the South to the Upper Midwest – including states devastated by recent tornadoes.The threat stretches from Texas all the way up to Michigan. Parts of the central US could get strong to violent, long-track tornadoes Tuesday afternoon. And especially dangerous nighttime tornadoes could strike parts of Arkansas, Oklahoma and southern Missouri overnight – potentially causing more destruction in areas already pummeled by last week’s deadly tornadoes and storms that killed 32 people. The storms will likely come in waves Tuesday and thrash Iowa, Illinois and Missouri with multiple rounds. About 3 million people are under a tornado watch in parts of Illinois, Iowa and Missouri until 10 p.m. CT, according to the National Weather Service, bringing the threat of tornadoes, widespread large hail and wind gusts of up to 70 mph. The area includes cities like Des Moines and Cedar Rapids, Iowa, and Columbia, Missouri.More than 23,000 homes and businesses were without power in Illinois as of 6 p.m. CT, according to utility tracker PowerOutage.us.The first round of storms started in the afternoon, dropping very large to giant hail, according to the Storm Prediction Center. Davenport, Iowa, reported 4-inch hail – just larger than a softball – while Oswego and Aurora, both western suburbs of Chicago, saw baseball-sized and pool-ball-sized hail, respectively.“Worst hail I’ve ever heard in Davenport,” “Sounded like bricks hitting the roof.” West-central Iowa could get walloped by a trio of strong tornadoes, large hail and damaging winds.There are two Level 4 of 5 risk areas Tuesday, the storm center said. A Level 4 risk means long-lived, “widespread and intense” storms are likely.The first Level 4 area stretches across eastern Iowa, northwestern Illinois and northeastern Missouri. The second includes southern Missouri and parts of Arkansas and Oklahoma. A new cluster of storms is likely to quickly become severe as it develops Tuesday afternoon into the early evening, starting in Missouri and Iowa and spreading into Illinois. Several tornadoes, some strong and long-track are possible, with these storms well after dark. A Level 3 of 5 risk area includes St. Louis, Missouri; Madison, Wisconsin; Des Moines, Iowa; and Little Rock, Arkansas – which was ravaged by a violent tornado Friday. More than 50 tornadoes touched down in several states Friday and Saturday, obliterating houses and leaving communities wondering how they’ll recover. South Dakota is facing a different kind of extreme weather. More than 140 miles of the Interstate 90 and about 85 miles of I-29 are closed indefinitely due to blizzard conditions, according to an alert on the state’s Department of Transportation website. The closure affects I-90 from Rapid City to Murdo and I-29 from Watertown to the border with North Dakota, the department said.

LIVE: Tornado hits Illinois as severe storm threat continues for Midwest --Less than a week after 80 confirmed twisters spun up, causing devastation in numerous states across the South and Midwest, another dangerous outbreak was getting underway Tuesday in many of the same areas.A strong tornado was caught on video by storm chaser Aaron Jayjack, who was shocked by the sight in Pleasantville, Iowa, Tuesday. Jayjack captured footage of what he called a “strong drill bit” tornado swirling in rural fields in Pleasantville, approximately 35 miles southeast of Des Moines. "Violent, violent tornado," Jayjack exclaimed.Storm chaser Aaron Jayjack captured these videos of a tornado tearing through Pleasantville, Iowa, on April 4.The tornado was also spotted near Knoxville, Iowa, east of Pleasantville, as well as in Melcher-Dallas to the south of Pleasantville.A tornado was confirmed just before 7 p.m. CDT in western Illinois, according to the National Weather Service in Lincoln, and the tornado was moving to the east at 50 mph. At 6:53 p.m. CDT, the tornado touched down in Industry, Illinois, 10 miles east of Macomb, with ping-pong ball sized hail accompanying the storm. Extreme Meteorologist Reed Timmer spotted the tornado during his live chasing of severe storms in Illinois. A first responder just south of Industrystopped local traffic just after the tornado hit, stating that everyone was "all right." One local house was damaged, but no injuries were reported.

Missouri tornado: Storm kills multiple people, sows destruction | (AP) — A tornado ripped through southeastern Missouri before dawn on Wednesday, killing five people and causing widespread destruction as the third in a series of deadly massive storms over the past two weeks struck the nation’s heartland. Forecasters are keeping a wary eye out for more extreme weather as this year’s early severe storm season continues. The storms have spawned dozens of tornadoes, mainly in the South and Midwest, that have killed at least 63 people. Just last weekend, confirmed or suspected tornadoes in at least eight states laid waste to neighborhoods across a broad swath of the country. The Missouri tornado touched down around 3:30 a.m. Wednesday and moved through a rural area of Bollinger County, about 50 miles (80 kilometers) south of St. Louis. Trees were uprooted, homes turned into piles of splinters, and one building was flipped on its side. Five people were killed and five were injured, State Highway Patrol Superintendent Eric Olson said at a news conference. Residents in the village of Glen Allen said at least some of the victims were members of a family who lived in a trailer along a state highway. Little was left of the trailer Wednesday beyond its concrete pads and an axle. A large stuffed animal was lodged in the branch of a downed tree, and furniture, clothing and kitchenware were scattered in a field. Olson said 12 structures were destroyed and dozens more damaged. The damage was concentrated around Glen Allen and the small rural community of Grassy, which are separated by a hunting area, said Bollinger County Sheriff Casey Graham in a Facebook post. He didn’t immediately release the victims’ names. Charles Collier, 61, said he saw the coroner’s van drive by with its lights on in Glen Allen, where he owns a storage facility. “That was a sad, sad sight -- knowing there was bodies in there,” said Collier. “I was just numb, thinking about all these other people, what they’re going through.” .

Tulare Lake Returned in the Central Valley After California Storms - — It is no secret to locals that the heart of California’s Central Valley was once the largest body of fresh water west of the Mississippi River, dammed and drained into an empire of farms by the mid-20th century. Still, even longtime residents have been staggered this year by the brute swiftness with which Tulare Lake has resurfaced: In less than three weeks, a parched expanse of 30 square miles has been transformed by furious storms into a vast and rising sea. The lake’s rebirth has become a slow-motion disaster for farmers and residents in Kings County, home to 152,000 residents and a $2 billion agricultural industry that sends cotton, tomatoes, safflower, pistachios, milk and more around the planet. The wider and deeper Tulare Lake gets, the greater the risk that entire harvests will be lost, homes will be submerged and businesses will go under. Across the region, the surprise barrage of atmospheric rivers that swept through California over the past three months already has saturated the ground, overflowed canals and burst through levees. The fear now is that record walls of snow in the southern Sierra Nevada will liquefy in the intensifying spring heat into a downhill torrent that will inundate the Central Valley. And the resurrected Tulare Lake (pronounced too-LAIR-ee), already more vast than all but one of California’s reservoirs, could remain for two years or longer, causing billions of dollars in economic damage and displacing thousands of farmworkers while transforming the area into the giant natural habitat it had been before it was conquered by farmers. “The Big Melt,” unsettled meteorologists have begun to call it. “This could be the mother of all floods,” said Phil Hansen, 56, a fifth-generation farmer who has already lost more than a third of his 18,000 acres to a breached levee. “This could be the biggest flood we’ve ever seen.” Already, several communities have been evacuated, and hundreds of homes and farm buildings have been destroyed or damaged. Sandbags are being helicoptered in. Dairy cattle have been hustled to higher ground by the tens of thousands. The authorities said last month that a local poultry facility surrounded by water was weighing whether to move or slaughter a million chickens. And farmers are sparring over whose land should get flooded first, knowing that inundation likely will be a question of when, not if. ImageA pickup truck pulls a trailer across a flooded road. Two people are standing on a nearby berm that is holding more water back, while fields beyond are flooded.

Will L.A. County sewage contaminate Tulare Lake flooding? -— Here at the western edge of the Tulare Lake Basin dwells a smelly industrial site the size of 150 football fields. Roughly eight times a day, its operations are replenished with a truckload of human waste from the residents of Los Angeles County.Since 2016, the Tulare Lake Compost facility has been converting Southland sewage sludge into high-grade organic fertilizer, and sparing L.A. County the bother of burying its waste in local landfills.But as epic Sierra Nevada snowpack threatens to overwhelm this phantom lake bed with spring runoff — inundating a region that has already suffered flooding from a series of powerful storms — some fear the facility could be transformed into an environmental disaster.“When the southwest corner of Tulare Lake floods, thousands of tons of L.A. County sewage sludge, containing toxic heavy metals, will become part of the mix in the newly formed lake,” said Tom Frantz, a retired schoolteacher and environmental activist who once lived in the area but moved to San Luis Obispo three years ago.“You can’t grow food for humans where this waste has been spread,” Frantz said.Area water managers and government officials acknowledge that if Tulare Lake Compost were flooded, the resulting contamination could trickle into groundwater and contaminate streams and rivers throughout the region. An even bigger risk comes from scores of waste lagoons at nearby chicken and dairy ranches that dot the valley floor.It’s for this reason that officials are now keeping a wary eye on levees and other structures that are designed to keep floodwaters from entering waste ponds.“We have seen it already driving around Tulare in the last few weeks,” said Angel Fernandez-Bou, a researcher with UC Merced’s Environmental Systems Graduate Group and a Western states senior climate scientist with the Union of Concerned Scientists. “Intensive cattle operations that are not careful about their waste had that waste spread beyond their properties, with nearby puddles of black water because of the waste,” he said.“If floodwaters carrying cow waste arrive near vulnerable communities, it is very possible that domestic wells are contaminated with such pathogens as E. coli. That can make water immediately toxic unless their water system has a disinfection treatment,” he said.

Dramatic photos show how storms filled California reservoirs - Water levels fell so low in key reservoirs during the depth of California’s drought that boat docks sat on dry, cracked land and cars drove into the center of what should have been Folsom Lake. Those scenes are no more after a series of powerful storms dumped record amounts of rain and snow across California, replenishing reservoirs and bringing an end — mostly — to the state’s three-year drought. Now, 12 of California’s 17 major reservoirs are filled above their historical averages for the start of spring. That includes Folsom Lake, which controls water flows along the American River, as well as Lake Oroville, the state’s second largest reservoir and home to the nation’s tallest dam. It’s a stunning turnaround of water availability in the nation’s most populous state. Late last year nearly all of California was in drought, including at extreme and exceptional levels. Wells ran dry, farmers fallowed fields and cities restricted watering grass. The water picture changed dramatically starting in December, when the first of a dozen “ atmospheric rivers ” hit, causing widespread flooding and damaging homes and infrastructure, and dumping as many as 700 inches (17.8 meters) of snow in the Sierra Nevada mountains. “California went from the three driest years on record to the three wettest weeks on record when we were catapulted into our rainy season in January,” said Karla Nemeth, director of California Department of Water Resources. “So, hydrologically, California is no longer in a drought except for very small portions of the state.”

California's Ponderosa Pines Unlikely to Recover From Devastating Drought and Pests, Researchers Say - - Ponderosa pine forests in California’s Sierra Nevada mountain range have been an important source of storage for atmospheric carbon. But a drought and pest invasion from 2012 to 2015 wiped out these trees. Now, researchers have found that it is unlikely for the forests to recover to their densities before the megadrought.From 2012 to 2015, a megadrought and an infestation of western pine beetles caused massive die-offs of ponderosa pine trees in the Sierra Nevada. During this time period, experts estimated that around 129 million trees of varying species, including the ponderosa pines, died out.This meant the carbon stored in these trees, which are an important carbon sink, was then released as the trees died and decayed. Forest regeneration for pines in this area would be difficult, as researchers described in a study published in the journal Frontiers in Environmental Science. Climate change makes future infestations more likely, so if the forest recovered, there could be an increased chance of another major die-off from the western pine beetles. These beetles are more likely to take over the Sierra Nevada forests as climate change makes more favorable living conditions for bark beetles. According to the USDA, bark beetles like the western pine beetle can experience faster larval development and better survival rates when temperatures are warm (but not overly hot). Further, drought conditions put stress on the trees, making them easier targets for the beetles to take over.For now, the diminished forests leave the bark beetles with no hosts, making another major infestation and another large die-off event less likely. “Some carbon loss won’t be resequestered in trees, but fewer trees on the landscape dampens the severity of western pine beetle outbreaks,” Zachary Robbins, a postdoctoral researcher at Los Alamos National Laboratory and corresponding author of the study, explained in a statement. “The forest seems to reach an equilibrium at a certain point.”While forests can sequester over 10% of emissions in the U.S., the researchers warned that carbon budgeting must consider bark beetle outbreaks and other stressors, like drought and wildfires, that impact forest regeneration. Plus, with ongoing climate change, we could expect to see similar effects to the damage during the 2012-2015 megadrought in a shorter timespan.

Key survey shows California snowpack one of the largest on record - -A key measurement of California’s snow levels on Monday found near-record depth and moisture content in the Sierra Nevada, a calculation that comes amid a historic year for snow in the state and that further fuels fears that dangerous flooding may be ahead this spring. The onslaught of storms that hit the Golden State this winter created what will “probably, most likely be either the first- or second-biggest snowpack on record,” said Sean de Guzman, manager of California’s snow surveying. But he noted during an update Monday that more data is needed from other surveying sites to determine the final ranking in record books that date to 1950. April snowpack data is important because this month is typically when California’s snowpack peaks in size, and because the information informs decisions from the state’s Department of Water Resources on how to manage the water supply over the coming year. On Monday, de Guzman measured 126.5 inches of snow depth at Phillips Station, south of Lake Tahoe, where data goes back to 1941, and about 221 percent of the average April snow water content there, he said. Statewide, April snowpack has exceeded 200 percent of normal in only three other years on record — 1952, 1969 and 1983. “This year is going to join that list,” de Guzman said. That is on par with snow survey data that came in across the Sierra Nevada over the weekend, showing that many locations are breaking long-standing records for snow water content, also known as snow water equivalent. The snow water equivalent of 54 inches measured Monday at Phillips Station ranks as the fourth wettest on record there, de Guzman said. It’s been a historic year for California snow, after 17 atmospheric rivers have bombarded the state since October. Last week, California soared past its record snow year of 1982-83, as measured by its statewide snow sensor network. On average, the sensors showed snowpack totaling 237 percent of normal, de Guzman said. Snowpack is most extreme — three times greater than normal, or more in some spots — in the southern Sierra Nevada, where many of the storms tracked. Mammoth Mountain officially recorded its snowiest season on record, with 704 inches at its main lodge and 882 inches at the summit. Farther north, the Central Sierra Snow Lab at Donner Pass, northwest of Lake Tahoe, has recorded 722 inches — its second snowiest season on record. “This is very likely the largest volume of water stored as snow in the Sierra Nevada since the 1930s,” said Benjamin Hatchett, an assistant professor of atmospheric science at the Desert Research Institute in Reno. Hatchett said the vast majority of snow courses in the southern Sierra Nevada are posting their highest snow water content number in the last 90 to 95 years.

After record snowfall, California braces for melting snowpack and flood risks - After three months of heavy rain and record snow, California is now facing the risk of floods due to melting snowpacks, as temperatures rise in the Central Valley and Sierra Nevada regions. After experiencing heavy rain and snow for three months, California is now confronting another environmental challenge – the melting snowpack due to rising temperatures. State officials have expressed concern over the possibility of floods in the Central Valley, particularly in the Tulare Lake Basin, which has already seen storm flooding this year. Although temperatures are forecasted to rise in the coming days, experts warn that the most significant threat will likely arrive when temperatures exceed 32 °C (90 °F) for an extended period — which is likely to occur around mid-summer. The National Weather Service’s River Forecast Center shows that rivers such as the Merced River at Stevinson and the San Joaquin River remain above flood stage, indicating a potential for hazardous conditions. Water levels are expected to stay high in these areas over the next few months. As a result, authorities are closely monitoring the situation and preparing for possible flooding events. Predicting the exact timing of the massive snowmelt is difficult, as it depends on various factors such as the duration of sunny days and the depth of the snowpack. Reservoir operations also play a role in flood risks. Water managers releasing water from dams to make room for incoming flows can add pressure to rivers and tributaries downstream, keeping water levels high. The National Weather Service has issued flood advisories along the Kings River in Fresno, Kings, and Tulare counties, as well as in Fresno and Madera counties along the San Joaquin River.

Homes collapsing under record snowfall in Park City, Utah - Park City, Utah, has experienced record-breaking snowfall this winter, causing significant damage to homes and buildings. The weight of the snow has caused roofs to collapse, leaving many residents displaced and seeking temporary shelter. According to local authorities, over numerous homes have been damaged, and several have completely collapsed due to the weight of the snow. On April 3 alone, the Park City Fire Department (PCFD) responded to 3 structures that collapsed. Park City officials are currently assessing the damage and working on a plan to address the immediate needs of affected residents. The city is also seeking assistance from state and federal agencies to aid in the recovery efforts. Residents are advised to take precautions and clear snow from their roofs to prevent further damage. The city has also issued a warning for potential avalanches in the surrounding mountains. This winter’s snowfall in Park City has surpassed previous records, with over 508 cm (200 inches) of snow so far. The accumulation of snow has also caused power outages and transportation disruptions in the area. Utah’s snow water equivalent is approaching 73.6 cm (29 inches). At over 200% of normal, it’s the all-time highest level since records began in the 1980s..

Lake Mead’s level jumps 3 feet — but hope may be short-lived | The Hill -- After falling to record lows in 2022, Lake Mead has seen its water levels rise 3 feet above projections after a precipitation-heavy winter. But experts warn it’s only a temporary reprieve without a comprehensive water management plan. While the Colorado River reservoir’s elevation was projected to sink to 1,043 feet above sea level by March, according to Bureau of Reclamation (BOR) data, it sat at about 3 feet higher as of Monday. Overall, the reservoir is about 5 feet higher than its lowest level ever measured, 1,040.71 feet above sea level, which it reached on July 27, 2022. The higher-than-expected levels are largely due to the heavy levels of precipitation in the West over winter of 2022 and 2023, tempering the drought that has plagued the region for almost the entirety of the century. California was repeatedly struck by heavy rains and “atmospheric rivers,” while the Rocky Mountains, the starting point for about two-thirds of the river’s annual flow, saw above-average snowfall. In Colorado alone, federal data indicates that the Rockies’ snow-water equivalent was about 158 percent of its average for the time of year at the end of March. This hasn’t been just any wet winter. Analysis by Weather Underground indicates March 2022 to February 2023 was the wettest March-February period in the U.S. on record and the third wettest 12-month period overall. Only 12 percent of the country was experiencing drought as of Feb. 28, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor, a six-year low.

Biden administration announces $343 million for tribal water resources, Colorado River conservation - The Biden administration announced on Thursday that it would be investing $343 million in enhancing tribal water resources and boosting conservation efforts across the Colorado River Basin. More than two-thirds of that total — $233 million — will be heading to the Gila River Indian Community for water conservation projects, which will help ensure the stability and sustainability of the Colorado River for water users across the basin, according to the Interior Department. The funds come from a $15.4 billion allocation from the bipartisan infrastructure law and Inflation Reduction Act, which serves to bolster the West’s resilience to drought, a White House Fact Sheet stated. “We have historic, once-in-a-generation investments to expand access to clean drinking water for families, farmers and Tribes,” Deputy Interior Secretary Tommy Beaudreau said a statement issued ahead of an inaugural event in Phoenix on Thursday. Within the $233 million sum is a $83 million investment in a Gila River Indian Community pipeline project that will expand water reuse, the Interior Department stated. This pipeline will provide up to 20,000 acre-feet for system-wide conservation and a 78,000-acre-foot commitment to replenishing a dwindling Lake Mead, the Colorado River Basin’s largest reservoir. For reference, typical U.S. suburban households use about one acre-foot of water annually. The Gila River Indian Community has the single largest entitlement to water from the Central Arizona Project — a massive infrastructural feat that transports about 1.5 million acre-feet of water from the Colorado River throughout Arizona each year. The community received its share from a 2004 settlement that aimed to recover the tribe’s historic water rights. Within the $233 million for the Gila River Indian Community is also a $50 million allocation from the Inflation Reduction Act through the Bureau of Reclamation’s Lower Colorado River Basin System Conservation and Efficiency Program, according to the Interior Department. This sum will help finance a system conservation agreement to help protect Colorado River reservoir storage volumes and will result in nearly 2 feet of added elevation to Lake Mead, the Interior Department stated. The agreement also includes up to 125,000 acre-feet of system conservation water in both 2024 and 2025, with another $50 million investment for each additional year, the statement noted. “In the wake of record drought throughout the West, safeguarding tribal access to water resources could not be more critical,” Beaudreau said. “These types of agreements will support tribal communities through essential water infrastructure projects and support water conservation in the Colorado River System,” he added.

Freezing rain hits Ontario and Quebec, leaving more than 2.5 million people without power, Canada - A sprawling Colorado low brought freezing rain and thunderstorms to Ontario and Quebec on April 5, 2023, causing power outages for more than 1 million customers or about 2.5 million people. Unfortunately, it’s expected that some of the residents will remain without power through the weekend. Quebec’s power utility reported that over 676 000 of its 4.5 million customers had no electricity, as the province continued to experience freezing rain warnings. More than 316 000 customers were affected in Montreal, and 171 000 customers in the Montérégie region, south of the city. The number of outages kept rising into Thursday when Hydro-Quebec reported more than 1 million customers are without power. “We have 1 000 workers in the field. Despite our efforts, since the weather event is not over yet, new outages may still occur. The regions most affected by outages at the moment are Montreal, Montérégie, Outaouais, the Laurentians, Laval, Lanaudière, Centre du Québec and Estrie,” Hydro-Quebec said in a release posted early April 6. “Unfortunately, it is not possible to give recovery times at this moment; we are seeing the damages as we go along. In addition to the linemen, pruners, planters and support staff for supplies, logistics and administrative support are being deployed. We are confident that we can restore power to some of the affected customers today. …It is already expected that some customers will still be without power on Friday and this weekend. Our teams will remain on the ground until every single client’s service has been brought back.” The cause of the outages, according to Hydro-Québec spokeswoman Gabrielle Leblanc, was the combination of precipitation and wind, which weighed down vegetation and led to falling branches and trees on power lines. Many of the outages were small in area, impacting only a few customers each, which meant that repair crews would need to fix numerous breaks to restore power to everyone. Downed trees were reported across Montreal, and weather conditions prompted the closure of the Victoria Bridge, connecting the city to its southern suburbs. Public Security Minister François Bonnardel announced the establishment of a coordination center to address the storm’s impact. As of early April 6, freezing rain warnings remained in effect for parts of Atlantic Canada.

Unseasonal rains and hailstorms threaten wheat harvest in India - Unseasonal rains, hailstorms, and strong winds damaged more than 523 000 ha (1 292 332 acres) of wheat crop in three Indian states, causing harvesting challenges and fears of significant yield losses. The untimely rains have also affected mustard, channa, barley, and vegetable crops, among others. Over the past two weeks, unseasonal rains accompanied by thunderstorms, hailstorms, and gusty winds due to western disturbances have affected major wheat-growing states, including Punjab, Haryana, Uttar Pradesh, and Madhya Pradesh. These untimely rains arrived just as the crop was nearly ready for harvesting and are expected to continue for a few more days. According to early estimates, the inclement weather has damaged more than 523 000 ha (1 292 332 acres) of wheat crops in Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, and Uttar Pradesh, leading to concerns of massive yield losses for farmers and harvesting difficulties. India, a major producer of wheat, is experiencing this crop damage amid persisting global high inflation and food security issues due to geopolitical uncertainties. In Madhya Pradesh, a senior agriculture department official stated that nearly 100 000 ha (247 105) out of 9.5 million ha (23.5 million acres) of wheat cultivation had been affected by recent rains and hailstorms. In Rajasthan, around 388 000 ha (958 921 acres) of the wheat crop out of a total sown area of 2.965 million ha (7.3 million) has been impacted by untimely rainfall, according to official sources. In Uttar Pradesh, over 35 000 ha (86 487 acres) of the wheat crop has been damaged by recent untimely rains, predominantly in nine districts. Experts from the Indian Agricultural Research Institute (IARI) emphasize that it is difficult to quantify the extent of damage to the wheat crop at this stage. However, they acknowledge that the quality of the grain may be reduced and harvesting losses may occur because it’s difficult to pick up fallen crops by a combine harvester and manual harvesting is costly. Wheat crop damage assessment is still ongoing in Punjab and Haryana, two other major wheat-growing states that have also received unseasonal rainfall.

Warming temperatures trigger earliest spring on record in parts of eastern US - Spring has sprung unusually early in the eastern United States. From parts of the Gulf Coast all the way up through southern New England, leaves are popping out of shrubs and trees days or even weeks ahead of schedule. Some areas are experiencing their earliest spring on record, which means communities are also enduring an unusually early allergy season. Experts say rising temperatures, among the most visceral consequences of unfettered fossil fuel combustion, play a role in this year’s accelerated spring. Phenologists — people who study biological life cycles — use two metrics to delineate the change in seasons: First bloom, when plants begin to flower, and first leaf-out, when leaves unfurl. This year, first bloom and first leaf-out started creeping up the East Coast between three and four weeks ahead of schedule. That’s not entirely unusual; natural variation in seasons results in an early spring every few years. But, in some places, spring arrived extremely early — earlier than any time in the past four decades. Parts of central Texas and the Louisiana coast, southern Arkansas, southern Ohio, the D.C. area, New York City, and the New Jersey coastline all clocked their earliest spring on record, said Theresa Crimmins, director of the National Phenology Network, a group that collects data on seasons and other natural cycles. The organization uses mathematical models that combine historical observations of first leaf and first bloom with temperature and weather data to predict when lilacs and honeysuckles, typically the first plants to turn green each year, will start becoming active. The group then compares that first growth to an average baseline from the three decades between 1991 and 2020. The network’s models show that spring arrived a full 20 days ahead of schedule in spots across the eastern U.S. The trend was particularly vivid in the mid-Atlantic region. Warmth has everything to do with when trees start budding and leaves begin opening. This year, an especially mild winter in the eastern U.S., plus a string of very warm days in recent weeks, created ideal conditions for an early-onset spring. “That’s really what caused things to get so far ahead of schedule,” Crimmins said.

Warmest March in recorded history for much of Japan - In 2023, much of Japan experienced the warmest March in recorded history. The unprecedented warmth has led to a record early bloom of cherry blossoms in many places. On March 14, Tokyo officially entered its cherry blossom season — also known as Sakura season — marking the earliest onset in history and matching the records of 2020 and 2021. Typically beginning in late March and extending into early April, this season heralds the advent of spring. Back to raw data… at least 182 weather stations in Japan, which accounts for 20% of the nation, experienced the warmest March day on record on Wednesday, March 22. Osaka had 25.2 °C (77.4 °F), marking the earliest occurrence of a temperature of 25 °C (77 °F) in the city’s 140-year history, meteorologist Sayaka Mori reports. Many new records were broken on Thursday, March 23, when 94 weather stations recorded their highest temperature ever for the month of March. Akita City, for example, had 22.8 °C (73 °F), making it the warmest March day since records started in 1883. In Tokyo, the Sakura season is now almost over.

Climate change: Catalonia in grip of worst drought in decades -BBC - In the Sau reservoir, teams in small boats are hard at work hauling out fish with nets. The idea is to remove them before they die and rot in the water, making it unusable for human consumption. The water level has dropped so low here - to below 10% of the reservoir's capacity - that there is already a risk the water will be contaminated by silt. Therefore, while the fish are removed, Sau's remaining water is being emptied downstream to another reservoir. "We are trying to transfer the water as quickly as we can, because the quality right now in the winter was good [but] in the spring it will become really, really bad, and we're trying to extract all the fish we can find there," said Samuel Reyes, director of the Catalan Water Agency (ACA). The Sau reservoir, 100km (about 62 miles) inland from Barcelona, has been supplying water to the city and other towns in the north-eastern region of Catalonia for half a century. But in recent months it has become the most visible symbol of the worst drought this area has seen in living memory. That is because of the now-notorious sight of the 11th Century church of Sant Romà de Sau, which was submerged when the reservoir was created in 1962. In times of abundant rain, the building - situated in the reservoir - sat below the water level, but it now stands several metres above the waterline, surrounded by parched earth. The water level at the Sau reservoir had been reduced to just 8% of its capacity in early March this year This part of Catalonia has not seen sustained rain in two-and-a-half years. In early March, the reservoir's water level had dropped to 8% of its capacity, down from 55% a year earlier. "I've never seen it so empty," said Agustín Torrent, a 70-year-old man who has lived nearby his whole life and who came to look at the church. "It's sad when you've seen [the reservoir] full before. But that's the way it is. It's climate change and anyone who says it doesn't exist, I don't know what you can say to them." In March, Spain's meteorological agency AEMET declared that the country as a whole "continues in a situation of meteorological drought which began over a year ago". Not all droughts are caused by climate change, but increased heat in the atmosphere takes more moisture out of the earth, making dry spells worse. The world has warmed by about 1.1C since the beginning of the industrial era and temperatures are expected to keep increasing unless there are drastic cuts to emissions.

Very strong M7.0 earthquake hits Papua New Guinea — hundreds of homes destroyed, at least 4 people killed - - A very strong earthquake registered by the USGS as M7.0 hit New Guinea, Papua New Guinea at 18:04 UTC on April 2, 2023. The agency is reporting a depth of 62.6 km (38.9 miles). EMSC is reporting M7.1 at a depth of 73 km (45 miles). The epicenter was located 97 km (60 miles) SW of Wewak, and 210 km (130 miles) NW of Mount Hagen, New Guinea, PNG. 133 000 people are estimated to have felt very strong shaking, 333 000 strong and 651 000 moderate. The USGS issued a Green alert for shaking-related fatalities and economic losses. There is a low likelihood of casualties and damage. Overall, the population in this region resides in structures that are a mix of vulnerable and earthquake-resistant construction. The predominant vulnerable building types are informal (metal, timber, GI etc.) and unreinforced brick masonry construction. Recent earthquakes in this area have caused secondary hazards such as tsunamis and landslides that might have contributed to losses.

New data raises concerns over global sea level: study - A new study into how quickly ice sheets melted at the end of the last ice age is raising alarm over how quickly sea levels could rise in today’s warming world. Parts of a large, ancient ice sheet covering Eurasia retreated up 2,000 feet per day — more than the length of the Empire State Building, according to new data released by the DOI Foundation.That rate of retreat is the fastest measured to date and could shed light on how fast ice can melt in Greenland and Antarctica if current climate trends continue.“If temperatures continue to rise, then we might have the ice being melted and thinned from above as well as from below,” the study’s lead author, Christine Batchelor, told The Washington Post. “So that could kind of end up with a scenario that looks more similar to what we had [off] Norway after the last glaciation.”Batchelor said the rate of retreat found in the new study released Wednesday is about 20 times higher than any retreat rate measured from satellites and 12 times faster than any retreat rate deduced from landforms on the seafloor.However, as the study points out, the current acceleration and thinning of Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets have been observed for years, and the “mass imbalance of these ice sheets has contributed about 0.7mm annually to global sea-level rise since the 1990s.”Antarctica and Greenland have lost more than 6.4 million tons of ice since the 1990s, but according to NASA, ice in those two places is melting six times faster than in the 1990s.In addition, air and ocean temperatures in Antarctica and Greenland are projected to increase and match temperatures seen at the end of the last ice age. If this happens, researchers say ice retreating at the levels seen in this new data could trigger a quicker collapse of modern-day glaciers, which would be devastating for global sea levels.

‘Ocean Is at Stake’ at International Seabed Authority Negotiations Over Deep-Sea Mining – EcoWatch - This week in Kingston, Jamaica, the United Nations’ International Seabed Authority (ISA) is conducting a second week of negotiations that could shape the future of the deep ocean. In 2021, the Pacific nation of Nauru triggered something called the two-year rule, which gives the ISA until July 9 to establish regulations to govern the controversial practice of deep-sea mining. This 28th session, which launched March 16 and concludes Friday, is the body’s penultimate meeting before that deadline. “The ocean is at stake,” University of California, Santa Barbara deep-sea biologist Dr. Diva Amon, who is representing the Deep Ocean Stewardship Initiative in Kingston, told EcoWatch. But beyond the looming threat of commercial mining, something else was different about these negotiations. Influential civil society groups including Greenpeace, the Deep Sea Conservation Coalition, the Pew Charitable Trusts and WWF have given up their seats to a large coalition of Indigenous Pacific activists who have come to share their vision of the high seas, a vision that contrasts the nationalist perspective that they are “nobody’s land.” “What we want to express is that we don’t view this as nobody’s land because it is part of our country,” Hawaiian Indigenous speaker and activist Solomon Kaho’ohalahala told EcoWatch. “This is where we have lived and thrived and have inhabited the largest area of ocean and islands on planet Earth.” Kaho’ohalahala hails from the Hawaiian island of Lānaʻi, where he has worked to establish marine conservation areas and to protect native dry land forest. He has also joined efforts to protect Hawaiian marine biodiversity as a whole as part of the Maui Nui Makkai network and the Native Hawaiian Cultural Working Group that championed the expansion of Papahānaumokuākea Marine National Monument into the world’s largest Marine Protected Area under then-President Barack Obama. In addition to his advocacy against deep-sea mining, he is also now campaigning for the expansion of the Pacific and Remote Islands National Monument, which President Joe Biden recently told the Secretary of Commerce to explore. Now, he has traveled to the ISA negotiations with other Pacific activists onboard the Greenpeace ship Arctic Sunrise. joining more than 1,000 Indigenous people from 34 countries and 56 communities in signing a petition to the ISA calling for a ban on deep-sea mining. As the advocates presented the petition, he offered a traditional chant for ISA delegates called an Oli.

‘We Have No Other Home’: Alaska Tribes Sue to Stop Largest Pure Gold Mine - If the Donlin Gold Mine is built as planned in Southwest Alaska, it would be the largest pure gold mine in the world. It would also lead to the filling of thousands of acres of wetlands, harm salmon and rainbow smelt and risk a catastrophic spill of 20 to 40 percent of the up to 568 million tons of toxic waste that could end up stored behind a 471-foot tailings dam.That’s why three Indigenous Tribes filed a lawsuit Wednesday to block the project, arguing that it threatens the Kuskokwim River ecosystem that they have relied on “since time immemorial.” “We’ve been on this land for almost 10,000 years. What will happen if a tailings spill occurs?” Orutsararmiut Native Council Executive Director Brian Henry said in a statement emailed to EcoWatch. “We all know the answer. It would be catastrophic to our people and our way of life. We have no other home.”The Orutsararmiut Native Council filed the lawsuit alongside the Tuluksak Native Community and the Organized Village of Kwethluk in the U.S. District Court in Alaska, with Earthjustice acting as the Tribes’ representatives. In particular, the Tribes want the court to invalidate the major permits for the project, the Orutsararmiut Native Council explained in a statement. These are the 2018 Final Environmental Impact Statement (FEIS); the Joint Record of Decision in favor of the project from the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, the Bureau of Land Management (BLM) and the Department of the Interior (DOI); the Army Corps approval to fill thousands of acres of wetlands for the project–which the lawsuit says would drain water from salmon-bearing streams–and a BLM and DOI permit for anatural gas pipeline that would run for 316 miles from Cook Inlet to the mine to act as a power source. The lawsuit claims these approvals have three major flaws:

1. The FEIS did not fully release the findings of an Alaska assessment of the health impacts of the mine.
2. It did not consider the impact of a full tailings spill, only a spill involving less than one percent of a potential tailings dam’s capacity.
3. The Army Corps didn’t consider how increased barge traffic on the river would harm rainbow smelt, an important food source both for the Tribes and for salmon.

“Because of flawed studies that failed to thoroughly consider the environmental and subsistence impacts of the mine, the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers has issued an illegal permit and BLM and the U.S. Department of the Interior have authorized an illegal right-of-way,” Earthjustice Senior Attorney Maile Tavepholjalern said in a statement emailed to EcoWatch. “The Corps also failed to prevent predicted impacts to Kuskokwim River rainbow smelt, an important subsistence and prey fish. This lawsuit seeks to overturn those authorizations, which would halt the mine. Before it moves forward again, federal agencies would need to conduct a more honest assessment of the mine’s impacts and identify and require measures to protect smelt.”

Methane big part of 'alarming' rise in planet-warming gases - Methane in the atmosphere had its fourth-highest annual increase in 2022, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration reported, part of an overall rise in planet-warming greenhouse gases that the agency called “alarming.” Though carbon dioxide typically gets more attention for its role in climate change, scientists are particularly concerned about methane because it traps much more heat — about 87 times more than carbon dioxide on a 20-year timescale. Methane, a gas emitted from sources including landfills, oil and natural gas systems and livestock, has increased particularly quickly since 2020. Scientists say it shows no sign of slowing despite urgent calls from scientists and policymakers who say time is running out to meet warming limits in the Paris Agreement and avoid the most destructive impacts of climate change. “The observations collected by NOAA scientists in 2022 show that greenhouse gas emissions continue to rise at an alarming pace and will persist in the atmosphere for thousands of years,” NOAA Administrator Rick Spinrad said in a statement accompanying the report. “The time is now to address greenhouse gas pollution and to lower human-caused emissions as we continue to build toward a climate-ready nation.”

Hochul removes looser methane emission rules from budget talks— Facing an unexpected firestorm of opposition from environmentalists, Gov. Kathy Hochul on Wednesday removed from budget negotiations a proposal to ease the rules regarding methane emissions in future years.“That’s a fair way to put it. It’s not that we won’t be taking up the matter,” said Doreen Harris, president and CEO of the New York State Energy Research and Development Authority.She and state Environmental Conservation Commissioner Basil Seggos have been the point people for Hochul on climate issues. They both agreed, under questioning by reporters on Wednesday, that the methane proposal would be revisited after the 2023-24 state budget is completed, and perhaps after the state Legislature finishes its session in late June.The proposal, which was first reported by Politico, would have extended from 20 to 100 years the period over which methane gas emissions are accounted for. That accounting will be used in an upcoming cap and invest, or carbon tax, that is also mandated in the state’s 2019 Climate Leadership and Community Protection Act, or CLPA, which is designed to cut greenhouse gas emissions.

Challenge to Biden 'Cost of Carbon' policy dismissed - A lawsuit that Louisiana and other Republican-leaning states filed challenging figures the Biden administration uses to calculate damages from greenhouse gasses was dismissed Wednesday by a federal appeals court. The unanimous decision by three judges on the 5th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals in New Orleans was the latest defeat for states challenging the Biden “cost of carbon” policy. It leaves the administration to continue using a damage cost estimate of about $51 per ton of carbon dioxide emissions as it develops environmental regulations. That estimate is under review by the administration and could increase. The Biden cost estimate had been used during former President Barack Obama’s administration. President Joe Biden restored it on his first day in office after the administration of former President Donald Trump had reduced the figure to about $7 or less per ton. A federal judge in Louisiana had ordered a halt to the administration’s approach early last year after the states filed a lawsuit. The states said the policy threatened to drive up energy costs while decreasing state revenues from energy production. The 5th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals in New Orleans blocked the judge’s order and the Supreme Court declined to intervene.

Chemicals Banned From Air Conditioners and Refrigerators Are Making a Comeback - Chemicals that were banned after they punched a hole in Earth’s ozone layer are still building up at an alarming rate in our atmosphere, according to research published today in the journal Nature Geoscience. The chemicals were once widely used in air conditioning and refrigeration but were supposed to be phased out globally by 2010. Scientists were surprised to find that concentrations of several types of those chemicals have climbed since then, reaching a record high in 2020. The culprit could be alternative refrigerants that were meant to replace the ozone-depleting substances,the new research suggests.An even bigger problem? Researchers can’t find where all the chemicals are leaking from. The ozone layer has managed to make a remarkable recovery over the past few decades.If emissions continue to climb, however, it could counteract some of that progress and exacerbate climate change. “Emissions of these few gases are at the same level as the emissions of all greenhouse gases in Switzerland,”Stefan Reimann, a researcher from Empa,the Swiss Federal Laboratories for Materials Science and Technology, said in a March 30th press briefing. “Being from Switzerland that’s really something which boggles me.” Reimann and his colleagues spotted rising emissions of five different types of chlorofluorocarbons, or CFCs.Aside from being widely used in refrigerants,CFCs were also ubiquitous in aerosol sprays, foam packaging, and insulation. There are many different kinds of CFCs, all of which were supposed to be phased out worldwide by 2010 under the Montreal Protocol. The Montreal Protocol,the global deal brokered to repair the ozone layer, has largely been seen as a monumental success.It was adopted soon after researchers discovered a gaping hole in the ozone layer over Antarctica in the 1980s. The protocol forced manufacturers to find alternatives to CFCs and other ozone-depleting substances. Thanks to that,Earth’s ozone layer is on the mend —which lowers the risk of people developing skin cancer and cataracts.Researchers expect the ozone layer to resemble its old +self—before the Antarctic hole — around 2066. That’s why the discovery of rising CFC emissions is such a curveball.CFCs have been gradually phased out since the Montreal Protocol was adopted in 1987.At the very least, emissions should have dropped since production and consumption of the chemicals was completely banned in 2010..While CFCs are supposed to be virtually nonexistent in products that used to contain them, companies are technically still allowed to use CFCs in the process of manufacturing alternatives. In other words,CFCs can be used as feedstock, or ingredients used to make a new chemical. That’s the case for three of the five CFCs that have become more prevalent since 2010 (CFC-113a,CFC- 114a, and CFC-115). They’re used to make hydrofluorocarbons, or HFCs,that replaced CFCs in air conditioning, refrigerators, and fire extinguishers. Unfortunately,HFCs are also problematic when they leak from appliances. They’re “super” greenhouse gases that are hundreds to thousands of times more potentthan carbon dioxide when it comes to their ability to heatthe planet.Basically, policymakers created a new problem by trying to solve an old one.

'Doomerism': Why scientists disagree with Biden on 1.5 C - Damned. Lost. Done. President Joe Biden keeps saying the world as we know it will be gone if global temperatures rise beyond 1.5 degrees Celsius. His comments are raising concern among scientists who say the president risks adding to public confusion about the dangers of surpassing the 1.5 C threshold, an event that is expected to occur in about a decade. Biden has been ratcheting up his warnings about breaching that benchmark in recent speeches, claiming that future generations would be damned and that “we lose it all” if the world overshoots that target. But those assertions go beyond what many climate scientists say would happen. Surpassing 1.5 C is dangerous, they say, but it’s not a point of no return. Biden’s rhetoric is “misleading and unhelpful,” said Michael Mann, a climate scientist at the University of Pennsylvania. The best way to view what lies beyond 1.5 C is as a continuum of worsening climate impacts, he said, rather than as a climate cliff. “It indeed feeds doomerism since there’s a very real possibility that we will fail to limit warming below 1.5 C,” Mann said of Biden’s remarks. “If we miss that exit ramp, we don’t continue headlong down the fossil fuel highway. We get off at the earliest possible exit.” Biden is not alone in using severe language to describe the possibility of bypassing the 1.5 C threshold, the most ambitious goal in the Paris Agreement. Scientists have said each tenth of a degree will lead to more permafrost thawing, higher sea levels and intensifying drought. Similar rhetoric has been used by other officials. Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) has said “global temperatures must not increase more than 1.5 degrees Celsius above preindustrialized levels in order to avoid the most severe impacts of climate change.” United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres has said humanity is on “a fast track to climate disaster.” Activist groups have also made the same claim, including the Sunrise Movement, which called it a “critical threshold.” But Biden’s comments stand out to scientists for their finality and because the president can reach people worldwide. They also come as scientists warn more clearly than ever that the 1.5 C threshold will likely be surpassed soon. It could occur in the lifetime of the 80-year-old president.

Kentucky Governor Signs Bill Banning ESG Investment In Public Pensions - Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear, a Democrat, has signed into law a measure that requires the state’s public pension funds to make investment decisions on financial risks and returns, rather than environmental, social, and governance (ESG) factors. Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear walks to his seat before the start of a meeting between U.S. President Joe Biden and governors visiting from states around the country in the East Room of the White House in Washington, DC, on Feb. 10, 2023. (Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images) Beshear signed House Bill 236 into law on March 24, mandating the state’s fiduciaries to solely consider factors that have a “direct and material connection to the financial risk or financial return of an investment,” according to the language of the bill. It bans actions on “nonpecuniary interests,” including “environmental, social, political, or ideological interest” without a connection to the financial performance of an asset. State Treasurer Allison Ball, a Republican, touted the new law, saying “Kentucky now has the strongest anti-ESG legislation in the nation,” Just the News reported on March 28. “For many years, pension investments were about maximizing returns,” Ball added. “Recently, however, there has been a destructive shift in investment methodology to use the savings of Americans as financial muscle to push ideological causes through the ESG movement. “Kentucky has said no to this shift by passing HB 236, which clarifies that pension fiduciaries must base investment decisions solely on financial metrics, not politics.” The state’s House passed the legislation 77–17 on March 2 and the state’s Senate passed it on March 13 after a 32–5 vote. Republicans hold supermajorities in both chambers of the state legislature.

Hess Advancing ‘Game Changer’ Initiative Using Crops to Capture and Store Carbon - Major global natural gas and crude oil producer Hess Corp. is donating $50 million to Salk Institute’s Harnessing Plants Initiative (HPI) over the next five years to advance initiatives toward net-zero emissions. The funds would support research operations and infrastructure for the new Hess Center for Plant Science. “The Harnessing Plant Initiative is a potential game changer in tackling the global challenge of climate change,” CEO John Hess said. “We believe this groundbreaking work will implement scientific breakthroughs on a global scale and can make a major contribution toward achieving the world’s ambition to reach net zero emissions.”New York-based Hess has significant operations in the Bakken Shale. It also holds a 30% interest in the ExxonMobil-operated Guyana offshore development that recently was producing 400,000 boe/d. The company also is working to reduce its carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions as part of a goal to achieve net-zero carbon. HPI is comprised of CO2 Removal on a Planetary Scale, as well as Coastal Plant Restoration. The programs are centered on using a plant’s ability to store and capture carbon. The CO2 Removal program focuses on producing crops that store carbon in the ground longer. The Coastal Plant Restoration initiative is centered on restoration and preservation of wasteland. Both can be significant carbon sinks. “By enhancing plants’ inherent capacity to capture and retain carbon, it is possible to cultivate plants that not only aid in mitigating carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere but also enhance soil quality and augment crop yields,” HPI founding director Joanne Chory said.Hess in 2020 initially donated $12.5 million to HPI and donated another $3 million in 2021. “Salk experts are making impactful discoveries on a regular basis, combining genetics, epigenetics, computational biology and other disciplines to understand how a plant’s genes determine the way a plant grows in an ever-changing environment,” said Salk’s Chief Science Officer Gerald Joyce.

A Push to Turn Farm Waste Into Fuel - Despite federal and state programs to convert corn into ethanol and soybeans into biodiesel to fuel cars and trucks, the United States has never before regarded farming as a primary energy producer. That changed when Congress in August passed the climate provisions of the Inflation Reduction Act, which provides $140 billion in tax incentives, loans and grants to replace fossil fuels with cleaner renewable energy that lowers emissions of carbon dioxide. Along with the wind and the sun, the raw materials needed for a significant portion of that energy come from agriculture — alcohol from fermenting corn, and methane from the billions of gallons of liquid and millions of tons of solid manure produced by big dairy, swine and poultry operations. Despite pushback from environmental groups concerned about increased pollution from farm waste, developers across the country see opportunities to build ambitious renewable energy projects to convert crops and agricultural wastes to low-carbon energy. “There is not a single renewable energy producer in the country that is not looking at or already taking steps to install new technology, expand their facilities, or thinking about building new plants in response to the federal tax incentives passed last year,” said Geoff Cooper, the president and chief executive of the Renewable Fuels Association, an industry trade group. In January, Avapco, a biofuel company that operates an ethanol refinery in Thomaston, Ga., about 60 miles west of Macon, was awarded an $80 million grant by the Department of Energy to build a plant capable of producing 1.2 million gallons of jet fuel a year from wood chips. And on a 2,500-acre site near Hennepin, Ill., Marquise Energy is collaborating with LanzaJet, which makes low-carbon fuel, to build an ethanol and biodiesel plant to produce aviation fuel for jets taking off from Chicago’s two major airports.The emphasis on energy production is a big shift in American farm policy that started in the early 1970s when Earl Butz, the secretary of agriculture during the Nixon administration, encouraged farmers to plant “fence row to fence row.” Mr. Butz’s summons to produce enough food to feed America and the world, say authorities, converted farms from family-managed businesses to an industry dominated by commodity-producing, export-focused corporations. The government’s plan to turn agricultural products into energy is intended to increase economic output, But environmental groups are wary about the additional waste the effort might produce. Phosphorus and nitrogen discharges from U.S. farms are “the single greatest challenge to our nation’s water quality,” according to the Environmental Protection Agency. More acres of corn, the most heavily fertilized crop, and more manure from larger livestock and poultry operations could increase nutrient pollution.

Battle brews over climate law credits for aviation biofuels - The Inflation Reduction Act is setting up a fight over the climate footprint of biofuels for aviation, with significant implications for the nation’s emissions trajectory, the U.S. transportation sector and rural communities. In coming weeks, the Treasury Department will unveil a new sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) tax credit called for in the climate law last summer. It will give up to $1.75 to producers for each gallon of sustainable fuel, based on the amount of carbon reductions in the product compared to conventional jet fuel. The credit could provide a major boon to biofuel products made of wastes and oils, but producers are also eyeing a big new market for corn-based ethanol. “We’re talking about potentially billions of bushels of new demand of agricultural crops,” said Geoff Cooper, president of the ethanol-focused Renewable Fuels Association. “The thought of farmers growing crops that ultimately will be powering our aviation sector … it’s a beautiful thing,” he said. “It has the potential to really transform the ag sector as we know it today.” The push for sustainable aviation fuel unites both producers and environmentalists, who say it will slash emissions. But the two camps disagree on how best to measure the greenhouse gas reductions of individual SAF gallons, raising questions about how the tax credit will be implemented and whether it can help achieve Biden’s climate goals. The debate echoes those of other fuels like hydrogen and natural gas, where analysts disagree on what is defined as “clean.” So far, the U.S. government has largely failed in bolstering SAF, which is generally defined as a non-petroleum-based biofuel that can power jet engines with less greenhouse gas emissions than traditional kerosene-based fuel.

EV tax credit rules get more complicated - The Treasury Department on Friday proposed new rules for determining which EVs will be eligible for tax credits under the new "critical mineral" and battery component requirements included in last year's Inflation Reduction Act. While the Treasury Department hasn't yet said which vehicles are eligible for the credits – that'll happen April 18 – we now know how the department plans to figure out which EVs do and don't make the cut. The new rules proposed by the Treasury Department on Friday explain how to determine which EVs meet the requirements for critical minerals and battery components, each of which provides a tax credit of $3,750. An EV that qualifies under both – and that meets the other requirements – will be eligible for the full $7,500 credit. Note that it's up to the automakers to do the math and tell the Internal Revenue Service which of their vehicles qualify. The Inflation Reduction Act, signed into law by President Joe Biden last August, provides federal tax credits of up to $7,500 for buyers of EVs that meet a new list of requirements:

• Vehicle price caps. Cars priced above $55,000, and trucks, vans and SUVs priced over $80,000, aren't eligible for the tax credit.
• Made in North America. Only EVs that "undergo final assembly" in the U.S., Canada, or Mexico are eligible for the credit.
• Buyer income limits. If you're a single individual with modified adjusted gross income of $150,000 or more, or a head of household with more than $225,000 of income, or a married couple filing jointly with income over $300,000, you aren't eligible for the credit.
• Critical minerals. To be eligible for the credit in 2023, at least 40% of the critical minerals by value – including lithium, nickel, manganese, graphite and cobalt -- in the vehicle's batteries must have been extracted, processed or recycled in the U.S. or in a country with which the U.S. has a free trade agreement. That percentage will increase to 50% in 2024, 60% in 2025, 70% in 2026, and 80% after 2026.
• Battery components. To be eligible for the credit in 2023, at least 50% of the value of the components in an EV's battery must be manufactured or assembled in North America. That percentage will increase to 60% in 2024 and 2025, 70% in 2026, 80% in 2027, and 90% in 2028.

All of these rules were originally expected to go into effect at the beginning of 2023. But in December, the Treasury Department said that it needed until March to figure out how to implement the last two rules, and that they wouldn't go into effect until that was done. (In the meantime, the IRS has used the other rules to determine which vehicles qualify for the tax credits.)

Feds warn of major climate risks to U.S. hydropower - Four power marketing administrations that sell and deliver low-cost power from federal hydroelectric dams face increasing risks from climate change and need to do more to prepare for those vulnerabilities, according to a new report from the Government Accountability Office. The audit warns that reduced dam generation because of drought conditions and extreme heat threatens to raise power prices and reduce deliveries of low-emission hydroelectricity. Despite that, two of the power marketing administrations (PMAs) missed a Department of Energy deadline to write assessments on the risks posed by climate change and the strategies to mitigate them, GAO found. The four PMAS are the Bonneville Power Administration, Southeastern Power Administration (SEPA), Southwestern Power Administration (SWPA), and Western Area Power Administration (WAPA). They are run by DOE and distribute electricity to wholesale customers — including public power utilities, cooperatives and American Indian tribes — in more than 30 states. Under federal law, they are required to sell power at the lowest possible rate “consistent with sound business practices,” with preference for public organizations and cooperatives. That means they serve a valuable role in providing hard-to-serve customers with low-cost power. A decadeslong drought in the West already is putting a strain on the system. Drought conditions on the Colorado River, for example, have left large reservoirs operated by the Western Area Power Administration well below full levels. Lake Powell, which feeds the Glen Canyon Dam, is at less than 25 percent of its capacity, according to the Utah Division of Water Resources. Glen Canyon Dam was operating at 33 percent capacity as of December 2022, according to the Bureau of Reclamation. According to WAPA data, power generation was 66 percent of average in fiscal 2022 across the 57 federal dams it operates. That reduced production can have ripple effects because of the administration’s obligation to meet its power contracts. According to the GAO report, WAPA deferred $4 million in maintenance projects to reduce the increase in base charges for customers.

Climate law could help EPA justify stronger power plant rules - EPA may find it easier to impose tough carbon regulations because of what last year’s sweeping climate law will already cost coal and gas power plants. The reason lies in the way the mammoth spending package known as the Inflation Reduction Act could reshape the U.S. power grid. By 2040, coal-fired power will decrease by 90 percent, while gas plants will lose their position as the main source of baseload power, according to EPA’s preliminary modeling of the power sector. Those findings may support EPA in crafting new, very stringent rules to limit carbon emissions from coal- and gas-fired power plants. The logic: The cost of such rules would barely add to the headwinds already facing the fossil fuel power sector. “The incremental cost that is attributed to the rules is going to be smaller,” said Brian Murray, interim director of the Nicholas Institute for Energy, Environment & Sustainability at Duke University. A grid flush with zero-carbon power could also spare the nation’s economy, power grid and ratepayers any price or supply shocks from strict carbon rules. EPA submitted draft versions of two carbon rules for interagency vetting last month. The White House review of the two proposals — which cover new and existing power plants, respectively — began March 15, ahead of a likely public release in late April. Two grid assessments will ultimately play a role in the cost-benefit analyses of those rules: EPA’s standard projections for the power sector that are updated each year, and a year-by-year analysis of the Inflation Reduction Act’s impact on the grid through 2031, as mandated by the climate law. The latter assessment is still in the works. But a sneak peek of EPA’s update to its power sector projections — using the so-called Integrated Planning Model — hints at the baseline for fossil fuel power through 2040. And that baseline is grim news for the industry. The preliminary modeling results show coal-fired power dropping to 30 gigawatts by 2040, with the remaining units producing less than 20 percent of possible power. Without the climate law, the model predicted 65 GW of coal-fired power in 2040. EPA’s projections for gas-fired power are more nuanced. Capacity is expected to increase by 2040 with or without the climate law. Today, the grid includes about 500 GW of gas capacity; with the climate law, it will grow to 520 GW, rather than the previously predicted 580 GW.

EPA tackles toxic power plant emissions - EPA would crack down on power plants that burn a notoriously dirty form of coal while more broadly curbing industry releases of arsenic and other hazardous metals, under a draft Clean Air Act rule rolled out Wednesday. If made final, the proposal would mark the first significant update to air toxics regulations for the coal-fueled power sector in a decade. It would also reverse a 2020 Trump-era decision that no changes were needed to what are formally known as the Mercury and Air Toxics Standards (MATS). “By leveraging proven, emissions-reduction measures available at reasonable costs and encouraging new, advanced control technologies, we can reduce hazardous pollution from coal-fired power plants, protecting our planet and improving public health for all,” EPA Administrator Michael Regan said in a statement. Most notably, the draft rule would end a loophole for electricity plants — primarily in Texas and North Dakota — that burn lignite, a high-polluting form of coal. Under current standards, those plants must meet a mercury emission limit more than three times as high as that for other coal-fired plants. EPA has now decided that lignite-fueled facilities are technologically capable of meeting the stricter limit. “We are leveling the playing field across the entire coal fleet for mercury standards,” acting EPA air chief Joe Goffman told reporters on a conference call Wednesday morning. The draft rule would also tighten limits on a type of particulate matter that serves as a stand-in for releases of nickel, arsenic and other metals besides mercury. Most plants can already meet that regimen, Goffman said. Other features of the proposed rule, which EPA hopes to make final by next March, include a requirement for continuous emissions monitoring in place of periodic “stack tests.” The proposal’s release came the day after environmental, civil rights and public health groups rallied outside EPA headquarters to press for faster action on a variety of power plant rules (E&E News PM, April 4). An agency spokesperson did not respond to a Tuesday email asking whether that rally — which EPA knew well in advance was coming — had any effect on the timing of the then-pending proposal’s release.

Could EPA’s Stringent Coal-Fired Emissions Rules Favor Natural Gas? - The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) is looking to strengthen and update rules around emissions from coal-fired power plants, which could affect natural gas. “By leveraging proven, emissions-reduction measures available at reasonable costs and encouraging new, advanced control technologies, we can reduce hazardous pollution from coal-fired power plants, protecting our planet and improving public health for all,” said EPA Administrator Michael S. Regan.The regulation would be the first of its kind in more than a decade. The more stringent news for coal-fired plants also comes at a time when natural gas is already fast displacing coal in the power stack. U.S. natural gas consumption averaged 88.5 Bcf/d last year, an all-time high in records dating back to 1949, according to EIA. Along with the chilly winter and hot summer of 2022, the regulator said coal also contributed to the rise in natural gas consumption.Newly retired coal-fired generating plants, stronger prices and lower-than-average stocks limited the electric power sector’s coal consumption last year, according to the agency. This resulted in stronger gas power burns for the electric sector.Late last year, President Biden said coal plants were becoming too expensive to run and should be shut down in favor of renewable energy projects.The new standards for mercury and other toxins for coal-fired power plants would achieve “important hazardous air pollutant emissions reductions and reflect the latest advancements in pollution control technologies,” EPA said. The proposed rule is part of EPA’s charter under the Clean Air Act to periodically review emission standards.EPA is proposing more stringent emissions limits and additional monitoring and control methods to reduce emissions of mercury and non-mercury metal pollution, such as nickel, arsenic and lead. The proposal would also result in emissions reductions of fine particulate matter, sulfur dioxide, nitrogen oxides and carbon dioxide nationwide.Based on its latest assessment of best available control technologies and techniques for reducing hazardous air pollutant emissions, EPA is proposing to further reduce by 67% the emissions limit for filterable particulate matter for existing coal-fired power plants. In addition, EPA is proposing a 70% reduction in the emissions limit for mercury from existing lignite-fired sources. That limit, it said, would ensure these plants achieve the same level of emissions performance as other coal-fired power plants.

Half of US coal-fired power generation to be phased out by 2026 - Not long ago, coal was booming in the United States. The country’s power generators used more of that fuel in 2007 than ever before — a little over 1 billion tons. Four years later, the generating capacity of the nation’s coal-fired power plants peaked at 318 gigawatts, enough electricity for 238 million homes. But over the last decade, the U.S. energy sector has made a dramatic pivot away from the greenhouse gas-spewing fossil fuel. Research shows it continues to do so at an astonishing pace. Nearly half of the generating capacity seen in 2011 is expected to vanish by the end of 2026, according to a report published Monday by the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis, a nonprofit think-tank focused on the global energy transition. The analysis also found that coal use by U.S. electric-power producers could hit just 400 million tons this year. And roughly 40 percent of the country’s current coal-fired capacity is set to close by 2030. “People were not predicting it was going to happen that quickly,” Seth Feaster, the report’s author and a data analyst at the institute, told Grist. “This is a long-term structural decline. This is not an economic cycle that is simply going to go away. It is a real phaseout across the industry of the use of coal.” The country’s current coal-fired electricity capacity is 184 gigawatts. That’s down 42 percent from the 318 gigawatts produced in 2011. As another 173 coal-fired power plants close or stop using coal in coming years, capacity is projected to hit 116 gigawatts by 2030.Coal’s precipitous decline has resulted in large part from the natural gas boom and the rise of renewable energy. Their falling costs — owing to technological innovations and government incentives, like those in the Inflation Reduction Act — have made it cheaper to replace 99 percent of operating U.S. coal plants with solar and wind farms, according to a recent study from climate and energy think-tank Energy Innovation. Last year, more electricity came from renewables than from coal for the first time in U.S. history.

Biden's DOE Offers $450 Million for Green Energy Projects at Coal Mining Sites - The U.S. Department of Energy has announced the availability of $450 million through the 2021 Bipartisan Infrastructure Law (BIL) for clean energy projects — like solar farms — on current and former mining sites, a White House press release said.There are about 17,750 mine land sites in the U.S. covering 1.5 million acres. These sites contaminate land, waterand air quality, as well as expose local communities to toxic pollutants.The repurposing of the sites for renewable energy projects would generate up to an estimated 90 gigawatts of green energy — enough power for almost 30 million homes.These projects will “provid[e] new economic opportunities for historic coal and mining communities,” the press release said. Up to five of the projects will be funded through the 2021 Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act, including at least two solar farms.“[T]hese projects could spur new economic development in these communities,” Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm said, as The Hill reported. “As with all BIL-funded projects, we’ll be prioritizing those that partner directly with communities.”

A green state tosses a lifeline to a major coal plant - One of America’s largest carbon polluters has received a stay of termination. Two Washington state utilities have announced plans in recent months to transfer their ownership interests in a massive Montana coal plant to a pair of power companies that intend to operate the facility for years to come. The decision ends a long-running fight that pitted Washington and Oregon against Montana over the closure of Colstrip Generating Station, which has long shipped electricity from the high plains to communities in the Pacific Northwest. It also raises fresh questions about efforts to green the economy in Washington, where Gov. Jay Inslee, a Democrat, has forged a national reputation as a politician who prioritizes climate action. The Evergreen State has passed laws to phase out coal, boost renewables and implement a cap-and-trade program. But the fight over Colstrip shows how difficult it will be to deeply cut emissions. The move by Avista Corp. and Puget Sound Energy to transfer their stake in Colstrip in 2025 to two power companies serving Montana raises the possibility that the coal behemoth will continue releasing carbon dioxide into the atmosphere — blunting attempts by Washington lawmakers to curb planet-warming pollution. “This is such an important issue to whether or not Washington actually sees emission reduction from these laws,” said Noah Long, who co-directs the climate and clean energy program in the western United States for the Natural Resources Defense Council. “It’s maybe convenient to forget just how much emissions a giant coal plant represents, and if you get this wrong and leave those emissions on the system, there are so few places where Washington can cut emissions at that scale. It’s just a huge missed opportunity.” Washington officials downplayed the potential climate impacts of the transfer. They noted coal facilities continue to face challenging economic times and pointed to a series of laws passed in recent years aimed at greening the state’s power supplies, saying those would continue to drive emission reductions. In 2019, the state passed the Clean Energy and Transformation Act (CETA), which requires a phaseout of coal by 2025 and 100 percent carbon-free power by 2045 (Climatewire, April 15, 2019). They followed up with a plan to join California’s cap-and-trade program (Climatewire, April 27, 2021). The state has committed to cutting emissions 45 percent of 1990 levels by 2030 and achieving carbon neutral emissions by 2050. Washington emissions were 102 million metric tons in 2019, or 9.3 percent higher than 1990 levels, according to the most recent state statistics.

Coal capacity climbs worldwide despite promises to slash it The capacity to burn coal for power went up in 2022 despite global promises to phase down the fuel that’s the biggest source of planet-warming gases in the atmosphere, a report Wednesday found. The coal fleet grew by 19.5 gigawatts last year, enough to light up around 15 million homes, with nearly all newly commissioned coal projects in China, according to a report by Global Energy Monitor, an organization that tracks a variety of energy projects around the globe. That 1% increase comes at a time when the world needs to retire its coal fleet four and a half times faster to meet climate goals, the report said. In 2021, countries around the world promised to phase down the use of coal to help achieve the goal to limit warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 Fahrenheit). “The more new coal projects come online, the steeper the cuts and commitments need to be in the future,” said Flora Champenois, the report’s lead author and the project manager for GEM’s Global Coal Plant Tracker. New coal plants were added in 14 countries and eight countries announced new coal projects. China, India, Indonesia, Turkey and Zimbabwe were the only countries that both added new coal plants and announced new projects. China accounted for 92% of all new coal project announcements. China added 26.8 gigawatts and India added about 3.5 gigawatts of new coal power capacity to their electricity grids. China also gave clearance for nearly 100 gigawatts of new coal power projects with construction likely to begin this year. But “the long term trajectory is still towards clean energy,” said Shantanu Srivastava, an energy analyst with the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis who is based in New Delhi. Srivastava said the pandemic and the war in Ukraine temporarily drove some nations toward fossil fuels.

Phaseout of coal power far too slow to avoid ‘climate chaos’, report finds --The world needs to close coal power plants at almost five times the present rate, as well as stop building new ones, in order to meet the goals of the Paris climate agreement, according to a report. Global Energy Monitor, a San Francisco-based NGO, said insufficient progress was being made to avoid “climate chaos” and that plans for a sharp increase in the number of coal-fired plants in China would require even steeper cuts to the rest of the global fleet to meet the world’s climate goals. In order to meet the Paris climate agreement, all coal-fired plants need to be closed by 2040 and no new ones can come online. Developed economies are expected to shut their plants a decade earlier than the global phaseout. This will require countries in the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development to close 60 gigawatts of coal-power capacityeach year until 2030 – about four-and-a-half times the amount recorded last year. Non-OECD countries will need to close 91GW of coal power capacity every year until 2040. The global survey found that although the total amount of existing and planned coal plant capacity outside China fell last year, the phaseout has slowed compared with previous years. China is also preparing to drastically increase its usage of coal, with plans to build enough new plants to more than offset the capacity retired across the US and the EU combined last year. “At this rate, the transition away from existing and new coal isn’t happening fast enough to avoid climate chaos,” said Flora Champenois, the lead author of the report and project manager for Global Energy Monitor’s global coal plant tracker. “The more new coal projects come online, the steeper the cuts and commitments need to be in the future.”

As US and Canada Threaten to Sue Mexico Over Energy Policies, Mexico “Nationalises” Sizable Chunk of Electrical Grid - Earlier this week, the Mexican government struck an agreement with Spanish energy giant Iberdrola to purchase 13 of its power plants in Mexico. Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador (aka AMLO) hailed the deal as a “new nationalization of the electricity industry,” allowing operational control of the 13 power plants to be transferred to the state-owned Federal Electricity Commission (CFE). With this, CFE will increase its share of the electricity market from just under 40% to 55.5%. The acquisition was made through a national investment vehicle majority controlled by Mexico’s National Infrastructure Fund (Fonadin), a subsidiary of the National Works and Public Services Bank (Banobras). For its part, Fonadin is managed by Mexico Infrastructure Partners, an asset manager of investment funds in the infrastructure and energy sectors, and it will essentially be leasing control of the power plants to CFE. In other words, there are a lot of moving parts to this “nationalisation” process. Iberdrola’s CEO, Ignacio Galan, described the deal as a win-win while expressing hard-earned respect for Lopez Obrador’s drive to increase state control over energy: “That energy policy has moved us to look for a situation that’s good for the people of Mexico, and at the same time, that complies with the interests of our shareholders.” By agreeing to sell up, Iberdrola has been able to put to rest a raft of lawsuits it was facing in Mexico, which could have cost as much as $800 million in litigation costs. The company will now be focusing most of its attention on the US and European markets, where it hopes to graze on the succulent green energy subsidies offered in the US government’s Inflation Reduction Act and the EU’s REPowerEU plan. Iberdrola’s decision to divest most of its assets in Mexico, until recently one of its most important markets, is part of a growing trend I warned about back in September 2021, in Why Are Spanish Companies Beating a Retreat from Latin America: For the past 30 years the region has provided huge money-making opportunities for many of those companies. It has also served as a giant springboard for international expansion as well as a highly lucrative home from home during Spain’s sovereign debt crisis. But in the face of deteriorating economic conditions, rising political uncertainty, depreciating currencies and growing resource nationalism in the region, some firms are now getting cold feet. The deal is the culmination of roughly two years of intense — and often not very cordial — negotiations between Iberdrola, Spain’s largest energy company, and the Mexican government. AMLO has repeatedly likened the power Iberdola holds over Mexico’s energy resources to the Spanish conquistadors of the 16th century. It hardly helps that Iberdrola appointed AMLO’s long-time rival, former President Felipe Calderón Hinojosa, as well as Calderón’s former energy secretary, Georgina Yamilet Kessel Martínez, to its international board. At one point, AMLO even threatened to pause diplomatic relations with Spain over the abuses of its energy and infrastructure firms.

Environmentalists fear Lake Erie fracking, oil and gas industry says not to worry --A bill introduced to the Ohio House would prevent oil and natural gas drilling under Lake Erie, something environmental activists have been worried about, but the oil and gas industry said the legislation isn’t necessary. “It’s an amazing lake that we need to protect,” Sandy Bihn, environmental activist, said. Lake Erie Waterkeeper is known as one of the main protectors of the body of water. Bihn is the executive director of the organization and she explained that the watershed has a rich ecosystem, one that provides drinking water for 11 million people, fishing, birdwatching and is a major source of tourism. Right now, the state extracts four million tons of rock salt from the lake’s underground mines, according to ODOT A study from the U.S. Department of Energy found that four trillion cubic feet of gas are thought to lie beneath Lake Erie, which is gaining attention as Ohio starts prioritizing natural gas production. “The hydraulic fracturing is super important because it’s allowed much more of the oil and gas to be reached through this, which allows Ohio really to have some of the cheapest natural gas prices in the world,” Rob Brundrett, president of the Ohio Oil and Gas Association, said. But the gas under Lake Erie could become untouchable. House Bill 43bill would ban any removal of taking of oil or natural gas from under the lake. State Rep. Mike Skindell (D-Lakewood) introduced the legislation with a group of other Democratic lawmakers primarily from Northeast Ohio — but this bill is more than just for the Clevelanders, he testified at the first hearing Wednesday. “The lake provides a great ecosystem which drives millions of dollars in tourism, fishing, shipping and agriculture,” Skindell said. “It is estimated that tourism alone brings in around $430 million in state tax revenue. Therefore, it is essential to protect this state treasure from potentially disastrous conditions.” Current Ohio law allows the Director of Natural Resources, with approval of the Director of Environmental Protection, the Attorney General and the Governor, to issue permits to parties applying for permission to take and remove sand, gravel, stone and other minerals or substances from and under the bed of Lake Erie, he said.Brundrett understands why this bill was introduced, but said it isn’t necessary. “The companies that I represent and the companies that operate in Ohio have not really shown much of an interest in oil and gas drilling in Lake Erie,” he said.

Environmental groups sue to block law that could force gas drilling in state – Environmental advocates filed a lawsuit Thursday seeking to block a new state law they say could force state agencies to lease their lands to oil and gas companies looking to drill under state parks.Gov. Mike DeWine signed the bill, which also redefined climate-warming natural gas as “green energy,” in January. It takes effect Friday.Rather than the merits of the law, the lawsuit focuses on alleged constitutional violations in the procedural maneuvering to pass the bill. The plaintiffs say the bill didn’t meet constitutional requirements that a bill focus on only one subject, and be “considered” by lawmakers three times. When it was first introduced and passed by the Ohio House in April 2022, House Bill 507 only adjusted a state law regulating poultry sales. After 4 p.m. on the second-to-last lawmaking day of the two-year legislative session in December, Senate Republicans added several amendments, including:

• · An expansion of oil and gas drilling rights in state parks
• · Redefining methane gas from shale (a fossil fuel) as “green energy”
• · A preemption against local governments from banning certain pesticides

Both the Senate and the House passed the amended bill the next day. Gov. Mike DeWine signed it after avoiding public comment on the matter.The Ohio Environmental Council, Ohio Valley Allies, Buckeye Environmental Network and the Sierra Club filed the lawsuit, naming the state and Ohio Department of Natural Resources Director Mary Mertz as defendants.Several Ohioans also are named as members of the plaintiff organizations. They argue that drilling on state parks they like to visit would irreversibly damage the landscape, causing air, noise, and light pollution. They say they had no real ability to voice objection to the bill at the statehouse because of how it was passed.The bill, they say, changes the status quo by “removing agency discretion to lease state lands for oil and gas development and replacing that discretion with a mandate that state agencies lease to any interested party with proof of insurance, financial assurances, and registration with ODNR” until Oil and Gas Land Management rules kick in. They’re asking a judge to temporarily block the state law “pursuant to the mandate,” until a final ruling is reached.A 2011 law first opened the door to hydraulic fracturing or “fracking” under state parks. It said, under rules created by the Oil and Gas Land Management Commission, state agencies “may” lease their lands to oil and gas companies. However, the commission never formed or enacted those rulesBut when HB507 takes effect Friday, the law says a state agency “shall” lease its lands to oil and gas companies.The recently organized commission is in the process of adopting rules to control the leasing in the future. A public hearing on one proposal is scheduled for the coming Monday.A court might invalidate a bill lawmakers pass depending on whether it “blatantly violates” the one-subject rule, according to guidance written for lawmakers by the Legislative Service Commission, a nonpartisan state research and bill drafting agency.Cleveland.com and the Plain Dealer previously reported that Encino Energy, a Houston-based gas driller with extensive operations in Ohio, has expressed interest in drilling under Salt Fork State Park, although several people said the governor’s office declined the company a key permit. A gas industry spokesman at the time called both Salt Fork and Barkcamp State Park “top prospects” for oil and gas interest. State records show the American Petroleum Institute, Ascent Resources, Vectren Energy, Columbia Gas, EQT Corp., the Ohio Oil and Gas Association, TC Energy and other fossil fuel interests registered to lobby on the bill as it passed, as did a number of renewable energy and environmental interest groups.

Failure by design: Leaking oil and gas wells slip through the cracks - — The well sits at the edge of the woods, between the trees and Dave McCallion’s hay field. The metal is rusty. Blue paint is flaking off of the fittings. Cloudy green water bubbles up around the casing. McCallion used to run his cattle in this field to graze after he’d taken off a second cutting of hay. He hasn’t let his cow-calf herd in there for several years now since the well started leaking. He’s worried a calf could get stuck in the water-filled trench around the well head. Or what if one of his cows takes a drink from that brackish water? “Every time I cut hay, I go by that well,” he said. “I can smell the natural gas. I can see the stuff bubbling up through the water. It’s been going like this for years.” McCallion said he’s tried for nearly six years to get something done about the leaking oil and gas well. He’s called the Ohio Department of Natural Resources, the agency that regulates the state’s oil and gas industry, repeatedly. He gave up after a while, figuring it was just part of life living in eastern Ohio, where there are thousands of conventional wells like the one on his Trumbull County property, drilled into the Clinton sandstone. If the regulatory body tasked with enforcing the state’s rules on oil and gas couldn’t help him, or wouldn’t help him, who could? He couldn’t afford to hire a lawyer to do battle with the well owner or the state to compel either of them to do the right thing. Then, in June 2022, Shawn Kacerski came to the Hartford Township zoning board meeting, where McCallion is a board member. During public comment, she stood up to speak and mentioned that a well was leaking on a property she and her husband recently bought. Kacerski’s story reignited McCallion’s drive to finally get something done about his well and now Kacerski’s. Between the two of them, they’ve reached out to the Ohio Attorney General’s office, the ODNR, the Ohio Environmental Protection Agency, the Sierra Club, local lawmakers and attorneys. They hit wall after wall. Their wells, they found out, exist in a regulatory gray area. The wells are leaking, but apparently not enough to present an urgent health, safety or environmental hazard. If that was the case, according to ODNR’s own policies, the department could have fixed the wells by now. The wells haven’t produced any oil or gas for several years but aren’t listed as inactive by the state, which, by law, would require them to be plugged. They’re somewhere in the middle, neither dangerous enough nor productive enough to do anything about. The wells have an owner who is responsible for maintenance and repairs. If the wells were orphaned, meaning there is no responsible owner, the state could plug them or the landowners would be allowed to arrange for plugging. Big Sky Energy, the company that owns the wells, has a history of non-compliance with state regulations. ODNR cited the company numerous times over the years for violations with its wells and infrastructure. The state agency used all of its available enforcement power against the company, and still, these problematic wells remain..This is not a unique situation. There are wells like this all over the state, left over from decades of oil and gas exploration, much of which was unregulated or barely regulated. There are other operators like Big Sky Energy that break the law without facing real repercussions.

Ohio Federal Court Allows Subsurface Trespass Suit To Move Forward - Imagine you own 135 acres in Washington County. You have received offers from several oil and gas drillers but have not yet signed a lease. Your neighbor, however, did sign a lease with XYZ Drilling back in 2019. XYZ Drilling constructed a well-pad on your neighbor’s parcel and subsequently drilled three (3) horizontal well bores into the Marcellus Shale Formation from that pad. Based on your review of the well records, it appears that a segment of one of the well bores passes within 100 feet of your property boundary. That well has been perforated and hydraulically fractured and is now producing significant volumes of gas every day. You are concerned that the well bore is now draining gas from underneath your property. Can XYZ Drilling remove and extract gas from the Marcellus Shale Formation under your unleased farm? A recent decision from the federal court in Ohio recognized that hydraulic fracturing operations can result in a subsurface trespass if the frac fissures extend into an unleased parcel. As detailed below, landowners and drillers here in Pennsylvania should closely follow and monitor the Golden Eagle Resources LLC v. Rice Drilling D LLC (Southern District of Ohio, 2.22 – CV – 02374, February 10, 2023) litigation as the law of subsurface trespass continues to evolve and develop. At issue in Golden Eagle Resources LLC v. Rice Drilling D LLC were two oil or gas leases concerning 18.93 acres (the “Subject Parcels”) in Belmont County, Ohio (the “Subject Leases”). The Subject Leases explicitly excluded the hydrocarbon formations “below the base of the Utica Shale.” In other words, the Subject Leases allowed the lessee to produce hydrocarbons from the Marcellus Shale and Utica Shale Formations but prohibited production from any other deeper formations. In 2019, Rice Drilling D LLC (“Rice Drilling”) drilled a well known as the “Big Tex” well, which did not pass directly underneath the Subject Parcels. In 2020, Rice Drilling began producing hydrocarbons from the Big Tex well. The well bore, however, did not access or penetrate the Marcellus Shale Formation. Instead, according to the well completion reports, the Big Tex well bore penetrated the deeper Point Pleasant Formation, which lies below the Marcellus Shale and Utica Shale Formations. In May 2022, the Plaintiff, Golden Eagle Resources (“Golden Eagle”), filed suit asserting claims for subsurface trespass and conversion. Although the Big Tex well did not actually pass under the Subject Parcels, Golden Eagle argued that Rice Drilling nonetheless committed a subsurface trespass by injecting hydraulic fluids into the Point Pleasant Formation below the Subject Parcels. Golden Eagle theorized that the frac fissures caused by the hydraulic fracturing process extended out from the Big Tex well bore and into the Point Pleasant Formation below the Subject Parcels. Since the Point Pleasant Formation was “below” the Utica Shale Formation, Golden Eagle asserted that no gas could be removed from said formation. Because Rice Drilling did not have any leasehold rights in and to the Point Pleasant Formation, Golden Eagle contended that the migration of hydrocarbons from and through the unauthorized frac fissures constituted a subsurface trespass. In June 2022, Rice Drilling filed a motion to dismiss Golden Eagle’s complaint. Rice Drilling’s argument was two-fold: i) Ohio law did not recognize a claim of subsurface trespass based solely on the injection of fluids and ii) even if Ohio recognized such a claim, the complaint did not sufficiently allege that a “physical invasion” of the subsurface estate occurred. Rice Drilling further argued that since Ohio law did not recognize a cause of action based on the injection of fluids, the conversion claim also failed as a matter of law. In essence, Rice Drilling asserted that the ”rule of capture” precluded Golden Eagles’ conversion claim. The rule of capture is a well-established doctrine which holds that a landowner is entitled to extract the oil and gas beneath his land, as well as the oil and gas which flows or migrates from a common reservoir. Oil and gas generally migrate to low pressure areas within a reservoir. As a result, production from one well may cause gas to migrate across property lines. The rule of capture recognizes this unique geologic phenomenon by allowing a landowner to “appropriate the oil and gas that have flowed from adjacent lands without the consent of the owner” of those adjacent lands. See, Ellif v. Texon Drilling Co., 210 S.W. 2d 558, 561 (Tex. 1948). Under this rule, there is no liability for “reasonable and legitimate drainage from the common pool.”

21 New Shale Well Permits Issued for PA-OH-WV Mar 27-Apr 2 - Marcellus Drilling News - New shale permits issued for Mar. 27-Apr. 2 in the Marcellus/Utica dropped quite a bit from the prior week. There were 21 new permits issued in total last week, down from 32 in the prior week. Last week’s tally included 15 new permits for Pennsylvania, 6 new permits for Ohio, and no new permits in West Virginia. Last week the top receiver of new permits was Ascent Resources with 6 new permits, 5 in Jefferson County, OH, and 1 in Harrison County, OH. Chesapeake Energy took the #2 slot with 5 new permits in Bradford County, PA. April 6, 2023 Ascent Resources, Bradford County, Butler County, Chesapeake Energy, Coterra Energy (Cabot O&G), EQT Corp, Fayette County, Harrison County, Jefferson County (OH),, PennEnergy Resources Range Resources Corp, Susquehanna County, Washington County

EPA Approves Potter County, PA Injection Well, Waiting Now for DEP -Marcellus Drilling News --An issue that’s been festering for more than two years appears to be coming to a head in western Potter County, PA. In early 2021, Roulette Oil and Gas applied for a Class II Injection Well Permit to drill an injection well in Clara Township. The leftists from Community Environmental Legal Defense Fund (CELDF) immediately began to whisper the siren song of “home rule” into the ears of Clara’s residents (see Clara Twp, PA Considers Illegal Home Rule to Stop Injection Well). Since that time, the federal EPA granted its approval for the project. It’s now over to the PA Dept. of Environmental Protection (DEP) to issue a final permit, and the locals are not happy that they haven’t “had a say” to try and convince the DEP to deny the permit.

PA DEP Finds 2 Repsol Wells in Susquehanna County Venting Methane -Marcellus Drilling News -During a routine inspection conducted earlier this week by the Pennsylvania Dept. of Environmental Protection (DEP), an inspector discovered two of 12 Repsol wells on a pad in Susquehanna County were (gasp!) venting methane into the atmosphere. Call the methane police! There’s fugitive methane escaping! The wells were drilled in 2016. Apparently, there has been an ongoing issue with these two wells since 2017, when the DEP determined the wells have defective casing and/or cementing.

Investigators examine pipeline in chocolate factory blast - (AP) — Federal safety investigators are examining a natural gas pipeline for fractures and other damage as they gather evidence on the cause of last week's deadly explosion at a Pennsylvania chocolate factory, a spokesperson said Wednesday.The National Transportation Safety Board opened a probe into Friday's blast at R.M. Palmer Co. that killed seven people, wounded several others and leveled the building in West Reading, a small town about 50 miles (80 kilometers) northwest of Philadelphia. Autopsies preliminarily revealed that all seven died of blast injuries, the coroner's office said as it released the victims' names.Federal investigators have said natural gas was involved in the explosion.“NTSB is continuing to gather evidence about how the building was supplied with natural gas and point of ignition, interview witnesses, examine the pipeline for fractures, any damage to pipeline, a chronology of events leading up to the explosion, among other issues that may come up as the investigation continues,” agency spokesperson Keith Holloway said by email Wednesday.A preliminary report on the explosion could be available in about three weeks, whereas the final report could take up to two years, he said. Pennsylvania State Police are also investigating the cause.

GOP bill gets construction of natural gas pipelines completed - U.S. Reps. Carol Miller (R-WV) and Guy Reschenthaler (R-PA) on March 29 offered legislation to ensure that bureaucratic red tape and lawsuits would no longer hold up the completion of natural gas pipelines like the Mountain Valley Pipeline. Rep. Miller sponsored the Complete American Pipelines Act of 2023, H.R. 2384, with two GOP original cosponsors, including Rep. Reschenthaler. If enacted, H.R. 2384 would lower energy costs by ending judicial review for legacy projects and providing jurisdiction to the United States Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit, according to the text of the bill. “The Completing American Pipelines Act will finish projects, like the Mountain Valley Pipeline, that have been held up by the radical, left-wing courts and will implement a needed check on our judicial system,” Rep. Miller said. “The American people are depending on domestic energy production so energy prices will finally go down. I look forward to the Completing American Pipelines Act coming to the House floor shortly to unleash American energy.” Once completed, the under-construction Mountain Valley Pipeline will send natural gas from West Virginia, Ohio, and Pennsylvania to North Carolina and South Carolina. Completion of the pipeline has been held up for several years by lawsuits. “The construction of the 303-mile Mountain Valley Pipeline equates to more good-paying jobs, lower energy costs, and increased energy independence for Pennsylvania and the entire region,” Rep. Reschenthaler said. “I thank Rep. Carol Miller for her diligence in ensuring this project — which is already 94 percent completed — can be seen through to the finish line for our shared states’ benefit. It’s past time to cut the liberal red tape and complete the Mountain Valley Pipeline once and for all.” H.R. 2384 has been referred to the U.S. House Energy and Commerce Committee for consideration.

Mountain Valley Pipeline's West Virginia water permit tossed by court | Reuters - A federal appeals court on Monday vacated a water permit needed by developers to restart construction on the Mountain Valley pipeline in West Virginia, marking the latest setback for the $6.2 billion project.The Richmond, Virginia-based 4th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals found several defects in the review the West Virginia Department of Environmental Protection conducted before issuing the permit.Construction can't restart in the state until the agency reconsiders the permit, which is needed before the 303-mile proposed pipeline can cross through the state’s streams and wetlands.

Federal court blocks Manchin-backed pipeline in West Virginia -A Virginia court on Monday vacated permits for an interstate natural gas pipeline championed by Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.). In a unanimous decision, the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Fourth Circuit in Richmond tossed the earlier approval of the Mountain Valley Pipeline (MVP) by West Virginia’s Department of Environmental Protection. In its ruling, the panel found fault with the department’s certification of the pipeline under the Clean Water Act. Specifically, the court ruled that the department’s decision did not properly consider earlier violations of water quality standards by the pipeline. The panel also ruled that the department did not sufficiently justify a decision to waive review of the pipeline’s antidegradation precautions. The court had approved the pipeline’s Virginia permits days earlier, but said that West Virginia’s reviews specifically had been insufficient. MVP agreed in 2019 to pay a $2.15 million civil penalty over allegations of environmental violations in connection with the pipeline’s operations in southwestern Virginia. “Without substantive assurance that MVP will comply with those policies, the Department’s sanguine outlook is troubling—especially given MVP’s prior violations,” the panel wrote. In a statement, Manchin called the decision “infuriating,” describing the pipeline as essential to American energy security amid the ongoing war in Ukraine. “This pipeline is more than 90% constructed with 283 miles already laid, and once through the red tape can bring an additional 2 billion cubic feet per day of natural gas onto the market within months,” the West Virginia Democrat wrote. “This project has been through three rounds of water quality permitting but activist groups continue to litigate the last 20 miles, standing in the way of restoring land to its natural beauty, getting more product to market to bolster our energy security and bring down prices, and allowing West Virginians to benefit from the natural resources they own.” Manchin has long been an advocate for the pipeline and has repeatedly pointed to its repeated holdups as an example of the need for streamlining the energy permitting process.

Court throws out gas pipeline's West Virginia water permit - — A company building a long-delayed natural gas pipeline has lost a key water permit after a federal appeals court ruled that West Virginia didn't adequately assess the impact of building the Mountain Valley Pipeline across streams and wetlands. Siding with environmental groups, the court said Monday the state Department of Environmental Protection’s justifications for its 2021 water quality certification were “deficient,” the Charleston Gazette-Mail reported. The 303-mile (487-kilometer) pipeline across rugged mountainsides in West Virginia and Virginia — which is mostly finished — would transport natural gas drilled from the Utica and Marcellus shale formations in Ohio and Pennsylvania. Legal battles have delayed completion for years, as environmental groups say construction has led to violations of regulations meant to control erosion and sedimentation. Among other things, the 4th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals said the West Virginia agency didn’t adequately address the project’s history of water quality violations. It also said the agency used the wrong standards to support the decision that in-stream activities would meet state water quality regulations. The permit is required under the federal Clean Water Act. The court noted at least 46 water quality violations and assessed civil penalties totaling roughly $569,000. Mountain Valley Pipeline LLC, the joint venture behind the project, is still aiming for a late 2023 in-service date. Spokesperson Natalie Cox said construction will proceed and the company would work with the state environmental agency "on a path forward to completing this critical infrastructure project safely and responsibly.” Angie Rosser, who leads the West Virginia Rivers Coalition, praised "the common sense reflected in the court’s decision.” “MVP has already gone too far in damaging West Virginia’s water resources, particularly in some of our most valuable mountain headwater systems,” Ms. Rosser said in a statement. Department of Environmental Protection spokesperson Terry Fletcher said the agency was reviewing the decision and declined comment. Sen. Joe Manchin released a statement Tuesday saying the ruling would further delay the pipeline. “It is infuriating to see the same 4th Circuit Court panel deal yet another setback for the Mountain Valley Pipeline project and once again side with activists who seem hell-bent on killing any fossil energy that will make our country energy independent and secure,” he said. The 4th U.S. Circuit Court signed off on Virginia’s water quality certification for the pipeline last week.

Mountain Valley loses another permit needed to complete pipeline - Less than a week after the Mountain Valley Pipeline moved one step closer to completion, it suffered another step backward Monday. A federal appeals court threw out a water quality certification from the West Virginia Department of Environmental Protection, an authorization needed by the natural gas pipeline to cross streams and wetlands in the state where it starts. Mountain Valley’s past violations of erosion and sedimentation control regulations figured prominently in a decision by a three-judge panel of the 4th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals. “Although the Department acknowledged MVP’s violation history, it failed to dispel the tension between MVP’s checkered past and its confidence in MVP’s future compliance,” Chief Judge Roger Gregory wrote in the unanimous decision. Last Wednesday, the same panel upheld a similar decision by the Virginia Department of Environmental Quality and the State Water Control Board that allowed the company to move forward with its plans to cross streams and wetlands in Southwest Virginia.Certification from both states — through which the 303-mile pipeline runs — is required before the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers can issue a final approval for water body crossings. “This should be a huge blow to the project,” said David Sligh, conservation director for Wild Virginia, one of the environmental groups that have filed repeated legal challenges against permits issued for the pipeline. Mountain Valley, however, indicated that it will seek a renewed certification from West Virginia. The company “will continue to work with the agency on a path forward to completing this critical infrastructure project safely and responsibly,” Mountain Valley spokeswoman Natalie Cox wrote in an email Monday. Certification from both states — through which the 303-mile pipeline runs — is required before the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers can issue a final approval for water body crossings.“This should be a huge blow to the project,” said David Sligh, conservation director for Wild Virginia, one of the environmental groups that have filed repeated legal challenges against permits issued for the pipeline.Mountain Valley, however, indicated that it will seek a renewed certification from West Virginia.The company “will continue to work with the agency on a path forward to completing this critical infrastructure project safely and responsibly,” Mountain Valley spokeswoman Natalie Cox wrote in an email Monday.

'A Win for All Living Beings': Appeals Court Tosses Mountain Valley Pipeline Permit -- A U.S. appellate court panel on Monday unanimously struck down a key water permit for the Mountain Valley Pipeline, a nearly completed fracked gas project long opposed by people living along the over-300-mile route through Virginia and West Virginia.Three judges from the U.S. Court of Appeals for the 4th Circuit vacated a Clean Water Act certification from the West Virginia Department of Environmental Protection (WVDEP), without which the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers cannot allow ongoing MVP construction at stream and wetland crossings."The certification reflected the department's conclusion that MVP's activities during the pipeline's construction would not violate the state's water quality standards," the panel said. "Disagreeing with that determination, landowners and members of various environmental organizations in the state have petitioned for this court's review of the department's certification. We find the department's justifications for its conclusions deficient and vacate the certification.""West Virginia communities have endured Mountain Valley Pipeline's damage to their water resources and environment for far too long."The MVP gained national attention last year because of efforts by U.S. Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) to force the completion of the pipeline as part of his thrice-defeated "dirty deal" on permitting reforms. House Republicans, who recently passed their own fossil fuel-friendly energypackage, are also now pushing for legislation to finish the project.While Manchin said Monday that "it is infuriating to see the same 4th Circuit Court panel deal yet another setback for the Mountain Valley Pipeline project and once again side with activists who seem hell-bent on killing any fossil energy that will make our country energy independent and secure," MVP opponents praised the decision."Today's ruling uplifts the tireless efforts of every single coalition member and volunteer fighting to protect land, water, and people," saidRussell Chisholm, managing director for the Protect Our Water, Heritage, Rights (POWHR) Coalition. "MVP should abandon their ill-fated project because we will defend every stream and river crossing that can still be saved from permanent harm." Several campaigners stressed that damage has already been done during the construction of the incomplete pipeline."MVP has already gone too far in damaging West Virginia's water resources, particularly in some of our most valuable mountain headwater systems. WVDEP clearly cannot make a good conscience argument that MVP will not further violate water quality standards,"said West Virginia Rivers Coalition executive director Angie Rosser. Similarly charging that "West Virginia communities have endured Mountain Valley Pipeline's damage to their water resources and environment for far too long," Jessica Sims, Virginia field coordinator for Appalachian Voices, agreed that "this ruinous project must be canceled." Along with violating water standards, this "disastrous" project "is already more than three years behind schedule, and billions over budget," noted Sierra Club's Patrick Grente. "With continuous legal setbacks, it has never been more clear that investors should stop throwing money at this doomed project and walk away."Bloomberg reported that the ruling likely thwarts plans to put MVP into service in 2023 and delays the project by at least a year.

More Delays Predicted for MVP After Fourth Circuit Vacates West Virginia Permit - The Mountain Valley Pipeline (MVP) will spend a while longer on its regulatory treadmill after the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Fourth Circuit vacated a key permit issued by West Virginia regulators.The latest ruling, handed down by the Fourth Circuit on Monday, marks yet another setback for the 303-mile, 2 million Dth/d Appalachia-to-Southeast natural gas conduit, which first received FERC sign-off in 2017.The court sided with a coalition of environmental groups challenging the permit issued to MVP by the West Virginia Department of Environmental Protection (DEP) under Section 401 of the federal Clean Water Act.Unlike a similar permit issued by regulators in neighboring Virginia, West Virginia’s sign-off on the embattled MVP did not withstand the Fourth Circuit’s scrutiny. The court cited a series of “oversights” that led it to find the West Virginia DEP’s decision to approve the project was “arbitrary and capricious.” Among a list of issues cited by the court, state regulators did not “sufficiently address” previous violations of water quality standards found by department inspectors during MVP’s construction in West Virginia.The West Virginia DEP “failed to provide a reasoned explanation as to why it believes MVP’s past permit violations will not continue to occur going forward,” the ruling said.Regulators also did not go far enough to require compliance with state-level construction permits, and they did not “provide a reasoned basis” for applying upland construction standards from the Environmental Protection Agency to a review of in-stream construction.Lastly, regulators should have conducted “location-specific antidegradation review” before determining the project would comply with applicable water quality standards, the court found. MVP’s developers are “disappointed” by the latest Fourth Circuit decision and remain committed to seeing the project across the finish line, spokesperson Natalie Cox told NGI. “With total project work nearly 94 percent complete, Mountain Valley remains committed to working collaboratively with state and federal regulators to finish the remaining work and help ensure Americans have greater access to cleaner, reliable and more affordable domestic energy.”Project backers are continuing to target a late 2023 in-service date, according to Cox.With the West Virginia Section 401 permit vacated, the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers will not be able to issue a federal discharge permit to MVP under Clean Water Act (CWA) Section 404, according to analysts at ClearView Energy Partners LLC. The Army Corps permit had been scheduled to be issued this month.The Fourth Circuit could have opted to remand the West Virginia permit while leaving it in place, the ClearView analysts said. “However, consistent with what appears to be a very hard line on agency permit review execution from this set of judges, the court has vacated the permit,” they told clients in a note.The end result could be more delays for MVP, slated to enter service in the second half of this year.Without the CWA permits, “we do not expect the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission to allow MVP to resume construction, even if the pipeline secures its other outstanding permits,” the ClearView analysts said. “…Therefore, we do not think MVP will hit its 2023 year-end in-serve target date. We think this ruling means that the project has likely been delayed about a year.”

Fed Court Rules EQT, Diversified Must Face WV Class Action - Marcellus Drilling News -Last summer, MDN brought you the news about a lawsuit against Diversified Energy and EQT over the issue of old and “abandoned” wells in West Virginia (see Big Green Uses WV Landowners to Sue EQT, Diversified re Old Wells). In June 2018, MDN exclusively brought our readers the news that Diversified Gas & Oil (now called Diversified Energy) had purchased EQT Corporation’s Huron Shale assets, with a bunch of conventional wells, in Kentucky, Virginia, and West Virginia for $575 million (see Diversified Gas & Oil Adds to Conventional Assets in KY, VA, WV). Several WV landowners, prompted (and supported) by Big Green groups, sued the EQT and Diversified last July, alleging the wells no longer produce and (under law) must be plugged. The new news is that a federal judge in WV ruled yesterday that a proposed class action by the landowners against the companies can proceed.

EQT Giving ‘Context’ to Decarbonize Entire Natural Gas Value Chain - EQT Corp., the largest natural gas producer in the United States, is partnering with Context Labs to commercialize verified low-carbon intensity natural gas products and carbon credits. Context Labs offers decarbonization as a service, or DaaS, using technologies to certify emissions profiles and help progress mitigation across the natural gas value chain. Technologies include distributed ledger technology, advanced climate data and analytics, machine learning and artificial intelligence (AI) capabilities. “We have taken decisive actions to cut emissions across our operations,” EQT CEO Toby Z. Rice said. “Now, with this specialized data, we can accelerate our path to net zero and reach our goals more efficiently. The Pittsburgh, PA-based independent and Context, Rice said, are capturing opportunities “not just to decarbonize natural gas, but credibly validate our emissions reductions, which is a critical component to ensuring natural gas plays a leading role in the world’s energy evolution.” Among other things, EQT has replaced or retrofitted 100% of its natural gas-powered pneumatic devices from its production operations used in the Appalachian Basin. Rice has said the transition to low-carbon technology has led to an “era of sustainable shale”. The independent is aiming to achieve net-zero emissions in 2025. The Context partnership is focusing on emissions quantification, operational analysis and certifying production “to scale emissions mitigation across the full energy value chain.” Context would deploy its proprietary DaaS “enterprise-wide” across EQT’s asset footprint in Appalachia. The end goal is to achieve full digital integration of the producer’s emissions data. [Decision Maker: A real-time news service focused on the North American natural gas and LNG markets, NGI’s All News Access is the industry’s go-to resource for need-to-know information. Learn more.] “The resulting creation of certified low-carbon intensity products will add a next dimension to EQT’s already robust and digitally enabled organization,” the partners noted. Using DaaS, Context would provide “certification and verification of the carbon intensity of EQT’s operating assets.” Certificates would be registered in Context’s Clear Path repository.

Virginia Regulator Who Pushed Gas Pipeline to Soon Rule on its Permit - An environmental regulator in Virginia who quietly promoted a proposed gas pipeline project may soon rule on one of its permits. TC Energy’s river and stream crossing permit application for its Virginia Reliability Project is currently before the Virginia Marine Resources Commission (VMRC), which will rule on the permit in the next few months. James (JJ) Minor, a VMRC board member, lobbied for the project last year. In its filings with the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC), TC Energy, a Canadian gas pipeline giant, anticipated receiving the VMRC permit by September this year. As part of the VRP, the company plans to double the size of its existing pipeline that carries fracked gas into the Hampton Roads area and upgrade two compressor stations.The project’s sole customer is gas utility Virginia Natural Gas, a subsidiary of Southern Company. FERC is currently conducting its environmental impact review of the project.Based on documents provided by the Energy and Policy Institute, the Richmond Times-Dispatch revealed in August that Minor, who works for the city of Richmond and heads the Richmond chapter of the NAACP, used a private email account to promote the pipeline project. Writing on behalf of “Team VRP,” Minor urged city of Petersburg officials to send ghostwritten letters supporting the project to FERC. The VRP will double the horsepower in TC Energy’s gas-fired compressor station in Petersburg, increasing pollutant emissions.The area adjacent to the Petersburg compressor station is an environmental justice community. TC Energy’s own statistical analysis submitted to FERC found that people living along the project route and compressor stations suffer from significantly higher health risks compared to the state and national averages, including cardiovascular disease, diabetes, life expectancy, low birth weight, and exposure to PM2.5 pollution.

CenterPoint continuing natural gas pipeline upgrades - CenterPoint Energy officials say contract crews continue replacing natural gas mains and service lines throughout its Indiana service territory as part of a multi-year program to replace approximately 1,200 miles of bare steel and cast-iron pipeline infrastructure in nearly 75 cities and towns. In 2023, CenterPoint is investing more than $76 million and upgrading 115 miles of pipeline.The bare steel and cast-iron infrastructure will be replaced with new industry-grade plastic that will last 100 years..“Our ongoing investments in our natural gas infrastructure remain a top priority for our company as we strive to provide our customers and communities with safe and reliable service,” said Ashley Babcock, Vice President, Indiana and Ohio Gas. “These improvements will also help reduce operational emissions as we continue our journey toward a cleaner energy future.”As crews perform the work, natural gas mains under streets and sidewalks are replaced first, followed by service lines running directly to homes and businesses. Upon completion of the work, affected sidewalks, yards and streets will be restored as weather conditions permit.

Judge rules LG&E can seize part of Bernheim Forest for new gas pipeline -— A Kentucky judge has ruled LG&E can seize a swathe of land in Bernheim Forest to build a natural gas pipeline following a legal battle earlier this year.The 494 acres of land in question, named the "Cedar Grove Wildlife Corridor," consists of two properties in Bullitt County near the Cedar Grove community, according to court documents.Environmental activists and Bernheim's attorneys said the new pipeline would negatively impact the surrounding wildlife and the forest's imperiled bat conservation project.“The utility hasn’t taken to account what their activity on the land will do to these species that we need to work hard to preserve and allow to continue to live in our area,” Elisa Owens, director of Kentucky Interfaith Power and Light, said.In a statement sent to WHAS11, a Bernheim Forest spokesperson said they are "morally opposed to the pipeline because of its long-term impacts to land and water.""Natural land protection and mitigating the affects of the climate crisis is good for the environment, the economy, ourselves, and for future generations," they said. "This is not just an issue of digging a trench and dropping in a pipe, it is about providing a healthy, resilient, connected, and sustainable future for all."Read Bernheim Forest's full statement here.Ultimately, Bullitt Circuit Court Judge Rodney Burress ruled LG&E has the right to use eminent domain to seize the land. In the judge's opinion, Burress agrees the new pipeline would improve natural gas service to customers in Bullitt County by "increasing capacity and improving reliability."

US Congress faces transmission-for-gas choice as permitting efforts advance -- Talks are moving ahead in Congress on a broad energy permitting package after the Republican-majority US House of Representatives passed its starting proposal March 30. Democrats, who control the Senate, want more aggressive measures to speed construction of transmission lines. They have also balked at provisions of the House bill that would roll back major Inflation Reduction Act climate programs and lower barriers to oil and gas pipelines and other fossil fuel infrastructure. But speeding oil and gas projects is a major priority for Republicans, and a divided Congress will likely force trade-offs. Although many Democrats are uneasy about supporting fossil fuel infrastructure, adding transmission will be crucial to Democrats' climate goals and fulfilling the clean energy potential of the Inflation Reduction Act. "I think Democrats in the Senate are definitely going to want to come to the table on transmission," Neil Chatterjee, a former Federal Energy Regulatory Commission chairman and past adviser to Senate GOP Leader Mitch McConnell, said in an interview. "What will be interesting to watch is ... can you form a coalition of folks who understand that in order to get durable bipartisan consensus, you're probably going to have to negotiate something that ... expedite[s] the build-out of natural gas infrastructure in the short term?" Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee Chair Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) will take a "close look" at the House bill and "is hopeful there might be a pathway to permitting legislation that could gain bipartisan support," spokesperson Sam Runyon said. As part of that effort, the Senate energy committee will hold a permitting oversight hearing but has yet to set a date, Runyon added. Meanwhile, Sen. John Barrasso (R-Wyo.), the ranking member of the Senate energy committee, is partnering with Sen. Shelley Moore Capito (R-W.Va.), the top Republican on the Environment and Public Works Committee, to form legislation similar to the House's bill. "We look forward to working with any Senate Democrat who is serious about fixing our disastrous permitting process," Barrasso said in a March 30 statement. Although seen as a messaging bill with no chance of enactment, the House legislation, called the Lower Energy Costs Act, could streamline permitting for a range of energy projects, particularly pipelines. "This was House Republicans putting out what they are for," Chatterjee said. "This is a pretty strong opening salvo to that negotiation [with the Senate]." The bill would limit climate considerations for pipelines under the National Environmental Policy Act and restrict states' ability to stop pipeline projects through the Clean Water Act. It would also make FERC the lead agency for federal pipeline approvals and give the commission exclusive authority to approve or deny siting of gas import and export projects, eliminating the need for the US Energy Department to sign off on LNG exports. A bigger role for FERC could give the industry more stability, Chatterjee said. "There's concern about a unilateral administrator [such as the DOE] potentially blocking these things," the former FERC chair said. "[With] FERC being an independent agency with a bipartisan configuration, you can potentially get more consistent outcomes over the course of time." Gas industry groups praised the House bill. The legislation "would expedite permitting timelines and judicial reviews for energy infrastructure — statutory changes needed to build projects," said Amy Andryszak, president and CEO of the Interstate Natural Gas Association of America.

American Gas Association Report Details US Agriculture Reliance on Natural Gas -- A new report by the American Gas Association (AGA) on natural gas usage by U.S. agriculture shows how important this product is to the industry. This is especially true for several Midwestern states with economies dependent upon agriculture and the various subsectors.The report (https://www.aga.org/…) analyzed the natural gas consumption and economic impacts of U.S. crops, livestock, food processors and agrochemical sectors of the U.S. economy. The findings in this analysis are based on data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration and federal economic data embedded in the IMPLAN economic model.Here are some of the more important figures from the report:

• -- The U.S. agriculture sector is a major part of the economy. It provides 5 million direct jobs. In addition, agriculture contributes $437 billion to the U.S. gross domestic product (GDP).
• -- Accounting for indirect suppliers and induced expenditures, the U.S. agriculture sector supports 17.2 million jobs and approximately $1.75 trillion in U.S. GDP. States with the largest share of their economies supported by the U.S. agricultural sector include Nebraska, Iowa, South Dakota, North Dakota, Idaho, Kansas, Arkansas, Kentucky, Wisconsin, Montana and Missouri.
• -- Just five of the many agricultural subsectors combined consumed 2.06 trillion cubic feet (Tcf) of natural gas in 2021, nearly the equivalent to the total consumption of California, which is the second-largest natural gas-consuming state. The five subsectors are food processing, beef and dairy cattle production, grains production, fertilizer and other agrochemicals and soybeans and other oilseeds production.
• -- The U.S. agrochemical sector produces fertilizers and other agricultural chemicals for use on farms. In 2021, U.S. production of nitrogen fertilizer and other agrochemicals required the consumption of nearly 95 billion cubic feet (Bcf) of natural gas. States with the largest consumption of natural gas related to the production or the supply chain of agrochemicals include Texas, Louisiana, Iowa, California, Ohio, Indiana, Alabama, Illinois, Oklahoma, Wisconsin and Mississippi.
• -- U.S. agriculture is one of the largest consumers of natural gas. When including direct use and use throughout the industrial supply chain, the U.S. agriculture sector consumes roughly 1.7 Tcf of natural gas. This would be the equivalent to almost 15% of all U.S. commercial and industrial consumption of natural gas, based on 2021 data.
• -- Losing secure access to ample natural gas supplies would put the U.S. agrochemical sector in a precarious position relative to competitors. If the industry were to become suddenly uncompetitive relative to foreign producers, then the U.S. would need to import more of its ammonia feedstock and finished fertilizer products.
• -- The U.S. agrochemical sector also has a significant impact on the U.S. economy, as it supports 344,000 U.S. jobs and $51 billion in U.S. GDP. The states of California, Florida, New York and Texas have the largest number of jobs supported by the agrochemical manufacturing sector. Other notable state jobs include 13,800 in Illinois; 12,400 in Pennsylvania; 7,200 in Wisconsin and 5,900 in Colorado.

How Are Growing LNG Exports Impacting U.S. Natural Gas? – Listen Now to NGI’s Hub and Flow --Click here to listen to the latest episode of NGI’s Hub & Flow podcast. NGI’s Patrick Rau, director of strategy and research, discusses the slow pace of final investment decisions for U.S. LNG projects, as well as the potential for longer-term challenges for future U.S. liquefaction projects.Rau also touches on how Chesapeake Energy Corp.’s heads of agreement to supply Gunvor Group Ltd. with liquefied natural gas could impact domestic supply.Believing that transparent markets empower businesses, economies and communities, NGI works to provide natural gas price transparency for the Americas. NGI’s Hub & Flow podcast is a part of that effort.

U.S. natural gas futures drop 5% on rising output, milder weather - Natural gas futures fell on Monday, starting the new month the way 2023 has so far — under pressure from strong production, modest weather-driven demand and strong storage supplies. The May Nymex gas futures contract was down 11.9 cents a day at $2.097 / MMBtu. June fell 13.2 cents to $2.333. The quick month had registered gains on Friday but was down 6% overall last week. NGI’s spot gas national average, however, rose 21.5 cents to $2.555 on a rise in the volatile West. Through the first quarter of this year – and then Monday – production has been around 100 bcf/d. This is near the record high of 102 bcf/d and has fueled ongoing concerns that supply could easily outpace demand after a mild winter and the spring shoulder season. NatGasWeather said forecasts coming into Monday’s trading had shifted “strongly warm” with US and European models showing a loss of more than 20 heating degree days (HDD). NatGasWeather said the temperature outlook for this week and next is now forecast to be comfortable for much of the lower 48, with highs in the 60s to 80s in addition to locally cooler 50s in far North America and the Southwest and Texas Locally warm to over 90. The firm said mild April conditions mean at least 48 storage surplus five-year averages are likely to “stall close to plus-300 bcf in the near future” unless there are particularly cold trends. . Against that backdrop, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. Analysts cut their natural gas price forecast for the winter of 2023-2024 to $3.10/mmBtu from $3.40, saying prices are likely to remain under pressure even as cooling demand picks up in the summer. The firm’s estimated storage ended near 1,800 bcf in March, higher than an earlier expectation of 1,635 bcf. Goldman analysts said the return of a major LNG export facility this year has helped the demand side of the equation. But its impact hit the market hard earlier this year and now, if anything, the unknowns of the timing of its reach this spring could prove to be a negative. Early-cycle enrollments for the Freeport Liquefied Natural Gas Export Terminal remained above 2.0 bcf/d during the past week and overall feed gas levels remained near record levels. In recent days activity at Freeport reached an all time high in the relaunch of the facility after the June 2022 explosion that put it out of commission. Nevertheless, the plant in Texas has the capacity to manufacture up to 2.4 bcf/d. “The amount of current storage surplus and lingering uncertainty around the ramp-up in LNG exports from Freeport LNG will likely continue to exert pressure on cash markets and the front of the curve, especially as we enter months of lower demand,” said Goldman analysts. he said. Preliminary estimates presented to Reuters for an Energy Information Administration storage report covering the week ending March 31 ranged from a withdrawal of 6 Bcf to 55 Bcf, with an average shortfall of 20 Bcf. NGI prepared a bridge of 22 Bcf. The projections compare to a shortfall of 24 Bcf a year ago and a five-year average of a flat balance. EIA posted a draw of 47 Bcf for the week ending March 24. This left inventories at 1,853 Bcf, well above the year-ago level of 1,411 Bcf and the five-year average of 1,532 Bcf.

US natgas futures up 2% on daily output decline, rising LNG feedgas - (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures rose about 2% on Wednesday on a decline in daily output and an increase in the amount of gas flowing to liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants since Freeport LNG's export facility in Texas exited an eight-month outage in February and returned to full power over the past week. That price increase occurred despite forecasts for milder weather and lower heating demand over the next two weeks than previously expected, which should allow utilities to start injecting gas into storage this week. Front-month gas futures for May delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) rose 4.9 cents, or 2.3%, to settle at $2.155 per million British thermal units. The market has been extremely volatile in recent weeks with the front-month gaining or losing more than 5% in 12 of the past 23 trading days. Freeport LNG's export plant, which shut in June 2022 after a fire, was on track to pull in about 2.2 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) of gas on Wednesday, down from 2.3 bcfd on Monday and Tuesday, according to data provider Refinitiv. That, however, was still above the 2.1 bcfd of gas Freeport LNG can turn into LNG for export. LNG plants can pull in more gas than they can turn into LNG because they use some of the fuel to power equipment used to produce LNG. Average gas flows to all seven big U.S. LNG export plants has risen to 13.9 bcfd so far in April, up from a record 13.2 bcfd in March. Refinitiv said average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states has risen to 99.9 bcfd so far in April, up from 99.7 bcfd in March. That compares with a monthly record of 100.4 bcfd in January 2023. On a daily basis, however, gas output was on track to decline 2.4 bcfd over the last three days to a preliminary two-month low of 98.5 bcfd on Wednesday. Most of the declines this week were in Pennsylvania and West Virginia. Meteorologists projected the weather in the Lower 48 states would remain mostly warmer than normal through April 20, except for a few near-normal days from April 6-8. With warmer spring-like weather expected to keep reducing the amount of gas burned to heat homes and businesses, Refinitiv forecast U.S. gas demand, including exports, would drop from 101.7 bcfd this week to 95.2 bcfd next week. Those forecasts were lower than Refinitiv's outlook on Tuesday. Mostly mild weather over the 2022-2023 winter allowed utilities to leave more gas in storage than usual and should enable them to start injecting fuel into inventories this week. Gas stockpiles were about 21% above their five-year average (2018-2022) during the week ended March 24 and were expected to end about 20% above normal during the colder-than-normal week ended March 31, according to federal data and analysts' estimates.

Natural Gas Futures, Spot Prices Drop as April Weather Outlook Grows ‘Exceptionally Bearish’ - Natural gas futures flipped lower Thursday, snapping a modest two-day winning streak after the latest government inventory data confirmed robust supplies heading into the shoulder season and forecasts pointed to benign weather through most of April. Cash prices slid in tandem. The May Nymex gas futures contract shed 14.4 cents day/day and settled at $2.011/MMBtu. June lost 14.3 cents to $2.238. NGI’s Spot Gas National Avg. fell 33.5 cents to $2.285. NatGasWeather said forecasts were “exceptionally bearish April 10-19 as much of the U.S. warms into the very comfortable 60s to 80s for larger-than-normal builds” as storage injection season is expected to soon commence. This would add to already hefty supplies following a mild winter in the South and East and robust production levels through 2023 to date. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) on Thursday reported a pull of 23 Bcf of natural gas from storage for the week ended March 31. The result was in line with market expectations for a draw in the low 20s. NGI modeled a decrease of 22 Bcf. EIA recorded a 24 Bcf pull for the year-earlier period, while the five-year average showed no net change to stockpiles for the week. The withdrawal lowered inventories to 1,830 Bcf. Notably, however, gas in storage remained far above the year-earlier level of 1,387 Bcf and the five-year average of 1,532 Bcf. After “big warmer trends” this month, the 298 Bcf surplus to the five-year average “will increase back to plus 350-375 Bcf, then with the potential to increase toward plus 400 Bcf if weather patterns fail to trend notably hotter/colder,” NatGasWeather said. By region, the Midwest and East led with pulls of 16 Bcf and 8 Bcf, respectively, according to EIA. Mountain region stocks declined by 2 Bcf, while Pacific inventories were flat. The South Central region posted an increase of 4 Bcf, reflecting the onset of spring weather in southern markets. Looking ahead, the forecasts for benign temperatures had analysts braced for storage injection season to begin as soon as the next EIA print. Early estimates submitted to Reuters for the week ending April 7 ranged from an injection of 39 Bcf to a withdrawal of 20 Bcf, with an average increase of 30 Bcf. That compares with an increase of 8 Bcf during the same week last year and a five-year average build of 28 Bcf. “As the gas market progresses deeper into the spring, cooling demand in Texas, the Gulf Coast and Florida may emerge and balance the downward price pressure of very warm weather,” said EBW Analytics Group’s Eli Rubin, senior analyst. “Throughout April and the first half of May, however, extreme warmth (April 2023 forecasts vie for the warmest on record) is distinctly bearish for an already oversupplied natural gas market.”

Dominion Energy, National Grid pursuing pipeline sales – WSJ (Reuters) -Utility firms Dominion Energy and National Grid Plc are separately considering a potential sale of parts of their natural gas pipeline networks, the Wall Street Journal reported on Thursday, citing people familiar with the matter. Dominion is mulling a sale of its gas-distribution companies serving North Carolina, Ohio and parts of the Western U.S., which combined could be worth $13 billion, the report said. National Grid on the other hand is exploring a possible sale of part of its pipeline network serving the Northeastern U.S. The reported moves come at a time when lawmakers and regulators across the United States are debating the future of natural gas for home heating and cooking as more towns and cities look to phase it out. Eliminating natural gas appliances would mean transitioning to electric equipment such as heat pumps. In response, utilities are working to determine how to modify or repurpose their current natural-gas delivery networks. Dominion and National Grid's shares on the New York Stock Exchange were trading 0.4% and 1% higher, respectively. Dominion and National Grid declined to comment when contacted by Reuters.

2023 CapEx Spending on Shale Drilling Shifts Dramatically to Oil | Marcellus Drilling News -- In 2022, the first full year after emerging from the worldwide COVID pandemic, the U.S. and world economies rocketed. Inflation rocketed too, but that’s a different story. Because of the high price for natural gas and oil last year (in response to Russia illegally invading Ukraine), U.S. shale drillers increased capital expenditure spending by a whopping 54% over what they spent in 2021. What about this year? The analysts at RBN Energy have analyzed the announced spending by 42 shale oil and gas producers (with a market cap of at least $500 million) and find this year, shale drillers will only expand spending by a “modest” 17%. What about spending in the Marcellus/Utica?

Oil and gas production in Gulf of Mexico has twice the climate impact of official estimates, researchers say - Oil and gas production in the Gulf of Mexico is belching out significantly higher levels of potent, planet-heating gas than previously thought, according to new research, which found the climate effects of the operations are twice that of official estimates. The report comes as the Biden administration last month put millions of acres of water in the Gulf of Mexico up for auction to offshore oil and gas drilling, and has plans for further auctions. In August 2020, scientists spent 10 days doing airborne surveys of more than 50 platforms in the Gulf of Mexico. Flying in concentric rings around the facilities, they measured plumes of carbon pollution from burning processes as well as methane pollution from leaks and venting. They combined the findings with previous emissions surveys and inventories to calculate the “carbon intensity” of oil and gas operations – the total amount of planet-warming pollution released for each unit of energy produced. B Their results revealed a climate impact twice as large as that estimated by government inventories, driven by high levels of methane – a powerful greenhouse gas more than 80 times more potent than carbon dioxide in its first two decades in the atmosphere. Methane pollution in the Gulf of Mexico totaled 600,000 metric tons a year, according to the report, which found that average methane levels in federal waters were three times higher than official inventories, and 13 times higher in state waters. “Inventories are generally challenged by methane,” Alan Gorchov Negron, a study co-author and climate science researcher at the University of Michigan, told CNN. Unlike carbon pollution, which comes from burning the fuel, methane from oil and gas operations escapes into the atmosphere – either through deliberate venting and flaring or accidentally through dilapidated equipment or unknown leaks. The study found that the worst climate performers were platforms in shallow waters, which include older style “central-hub platforms” that collect oil and gas from smaller platforms for processing. These have an “extraordinarily high” carbon intensity that far exceeds that of deeper water facilities, according to the report’s authors.

A federal climate bill promised to fix oil leasing. But are the reforms being implemented? – Despite its reputation as the largest climate bill ever enacted in the United States, the Inflation Reduction Act passed last year did not trigger an end to leasing federal public land to drill for fossil fuels, as some environmental groups had advocated for. The legislation did, however, tighten the rules for oil and gas leasing. It implemented reforms to a process that has long benefited the fossil fuel industry, especially in Nevada where there is rampant speculative leasing in which companies lease public land but fail to develop the parcels, preventing the land from being managed for other interests, including for conservation. Or at least that was the intent. Although the law is meant to clamp down on speculative leasing, an upcoming lease sale in Nevada has several environmental groups concerned the U.S. Bureau of Land Management, which oversees federal land, is shirking the required reforms. To nominate land for oil and gas leasing, an individual or a company must propose parcels by submitting an “expression of interest” to federal land managers. Before the Inflation Reduction Act, parcels could be nominated by anyone anonymously and for free. Now, nominators must disclose who they are and pay a $5 nonrefundable fee to file their expression of interest. In November, an internal U.S. Bureau of Land Management memorandum provided more detail for how the new oil and gas reforms should be enforced by employees. It recommended federal land managers reject all nominations that are over three years old or submitted anonymously. But in Nevada, 31 of the 35 land parcels — a total of roughly 63,000 acres — being considered for a lease sale in July meet that criteria for rejection, according to an analysis from the Center for Western Priorities, a conservation advocacy organization. Some environmental groups see the July lease sale as a test of how the administration implements the reforms across the region. And it comes at a time when federal land managers are looking to strengthen protections for public land. Earlier this week, the Bureau of Land Management announced it was accepting public comment on a proposed rule that environmentalists said would better balance restoration and conservation with fossil fuel extraction and energy development, environmentalists said.

Oil drilling in Gulf safer, but concerns linger, report says --Thirteen years after the massive Deepwater Horizons spill fouled the Gulf of Mexico, regulators and industry have reduced some risks in deep water exploration in the gulf but some troublesome safety issues persist, a new study by the National Academy of Sciences said.The creation of a specific federal agency for offshore oil drilling safety, an industrywide safety center and new technology have all helped reduce risks, Tuesday’s report said. But federal inspectors remain relatively powerless over contractors on rigs, which are 80% of the workers.The report also worried about the lack of an industrywide safety culture that integrates accident prevention into everyday work.“They have not figured out how to naturally embrace safety in particular... in who they are and what they do” but instead treat it like a box to check off, Sears said.“There are a lot of things that are happening that are really good, but the industry is not at a place″ where it should be, said panel chairman Richard Sears. He was a longtime Shell executive who was the chief technical adviser to the federal panel that initially investigated the 2010 explosion on the BP rig that killed 11 people and caused America’s biggest oil spill — more than 130 million gallons.A culture that gave lip service to safety but didn’t really integrate it into the way it does business was part of the problem with the accident, Sears and others said. Some companies are treating safety the proper way — including giving flash bonuses to workers who stopped drilling because of potential dangers — but others “that don’t seem to get it,” he said.

Cities will get nearly $200M in grants for pipeline upgrades - -- Federal officials announced the first $196 million of grants Wednesday in a $1 billion program to repair and replace aging and sometimes leaking natural gas pipelines across the country. The Transportation Department and its Pipelines and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration announced that the city of Las Cruces, New Mexico, will get $10 million as the first grant recipient. Nineteen other communities will also get grants to help upgrade 270 miles (435 kilometer) of natural gas pipelines, although the government didn't identify all the recipients. Another nearly $400 million of grants will be announced later this year. The grants, announced by Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, will be paid for with money from the infrastructure law President Joe Biden's administration is touting in a series of events across the country. Several of the pipelines that will be repaired or replaced were installed decades ago, and some of them are leaking. Officials estimate that completing these repairs will help reduce methane emissions by roughly 212 metric tons a year. Aging pipelines have been involved in fatal explosions and massive spills that have occurred over decades in California, Michigan, New Jersey and other states. “Investments in pipeline safety are investments in community safety and our shared environment,” said PHMSA Deputy Administrator Tristan Brown.

Mill Creek cleanup continues months after Keystone Pipeline oil spill - Personnel remain on scene as cleanup efforts at Mill Creek continue into April following the December Keystone Pipeline oil spill. The Environmental Protection Agency announced that its on-scene coordinators will remain at the site of the Keystone Pipeline rupture which discharged 14,000 barrels of oil into Washington County’s Mill Creek in early December. Since the spill happened, the EPA said it has deployed more than 30 members to provide technical advice and assistance to support the response. It has also used contractor resources to provide on-the-scene and remote technical support to the responding team members. According to the EPA, response crews have made significant progress in the last few months. The installation of a temporary water diversion system in January produced two beneficial results:

1. A reduction in oil-related contaminants that impacts the surface water downstream of the oil-impacted segment of Mill Creek.
2. The ability to conduct submerged oil assessments and perform cleanup of submerged oil from the creek bed, sediment and shoreline of Mill Creek.

As response crews continue to work to remove oil and oil-coated soil, sediment, shoreline and debris from Mill Creek. It also said additional personnel remains on-scene to build a higher capacity diversion system and two surface water treatment impoundments. These allow for the separation of oil and water to happen on-scene. The EPA also noted that the separated water will then be treated and tested to ensure it meets discharge limits established by the Kansas Department of Health and Environment before it can be put back into the creek downstream of the oil spill. The Agency indicated that TC Energy, the Canadian company which owns the pipeline, has led the response as it oversees the work done. The KDHE also provides oversight at the scene.

Natural Gas May Compete with Conservation in BLM’s Proposed Land Management Shift - The Bureau of Land Management (BLM) is proposing to change how public lands are managed to put conservation on equal footing as other uses, including oil and natural gas extraction. The BLM plan for conservation leasing would entail a time-limited lease of public land that allows interested organizations to conduct specific restoration or mitigation activities. These leases also would generate revenue, which could include establishing carbon markets. “As the nation continues to face unprecedented drought, increasing wildfires and the declining health of our landscapes, our public lands are under growing pressure. It is our responsibility to use the best tools available to restore wildlife habitat, plan for smart development and conserve the most important places for the benefit of the generations to come,” said Interior Secretary Deb Haaland. The federal agency manages more than 245 million acres of public land primarily in 12 western states, including Alaska. The proposed Public Lands Rule would build on other changes announced by the Biden administration as it aims to curb new oil and natural gas drilling on public lands. The proposal would provide tools for the BLM to “improve the resilience of public lands in the face of a changing climate; conserve important wildlife habitat and intact landscapes; plan for development; and better recognize unique cultural and natural resources on public lands,” the agency said last week. The rule would also allow the federal government to identify areas in need of restoration or conservation. Although President Biden had campaigned on ending drilling on federal lands, the White House last year resumed selling leases to drill for oil and gas on federal lands. The number of acres available, however, declined dramatically and it now costs drillers more to work on public property. In 2022, sales of oil, gas, and natural gas liquids produced from the federal mineral estate accounted for 11% of all oil and 9% of all natural gas produced in the United States, according to BLM. The proposed rule includes a roadmap to align the BLM with other land management agencies, such as the U.S. Forest Service, in “ensuring the agency is inventorying and assessing the health of public lands, including watersheds, forests and wildlife habitat.” The publication of the proposed Public Lands Rule in the Federal Register in the coming days would initiate a 75-day public comment period. In addition, the BLM plans to host five information forums to discuss the details of the rule.

An OPEC-driven U.S. drilling boom? Not so fast. - The price of U.S. oil climbed more than 5 percent Monday in the wake of plans by Saudi Arabia and other OPEC countries to cut production, raising new questions for the Biden administration and motorists who rely on gasoline. But even if domestic prices continue to climb, it may take months for U.S. oil output to increase in a meaningful way — if at all. Growth in oil and gas production has remained essentially flat in the United States for the past several months, according to a report released last week by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. In that report, oil executives cited inflationary costs in the oil field and fear of a looming recession as reasons why output remained flat (Energywire, March 30). At the same time, wells that produce both crude and natural gas have taken financial hits since the price of natural gas has begun to crater, said Andy Lipow, an oil analyst with the Houston-based Lipow Oil Associates LLC. The average price of U.S. natural gas fell from a high of $8.81 per million British thermal units in August to $2.38 in February, according to federal data on benchmark prices, making those endeavors less profitable as the cost of a barrel of U.S. crude fell from an average of $114 in June 2022 to $72.87 on March 27. “Combined with higher labor costs, higher costs for pipe and sand and services, [oil producers] need higher oil prices simply to drill,” Lipow said. OPEC and allied countries announced production cuts over the weekend totaling more than 1 million barrels of oil per day. Saudi Arabia said it was a “precautionary” step to help stabilize the oil market, according to the Associated Press. Price fluctuations over the past few months have not inspired more production, according to data released by the U.S. Energy Information Administration last week. U.S. crude production grew by 2.9 percent from December 2022 to January, rising to a little less than 12.5 million barrels a day, or about 50,000 more barrels a day than was being produced in October 2022. But more recently, there has been a decline in U.S. crude rigs in operation according to EIA, dropping to 604 in February compared to 616 in January and 623 last December. Part of oil companies’ reluctance to increase production or invest in new exploration is likely tied to capital discipline that has become a staple of the industry since oil prices began rebounding after plunging when Covid-19 hit, said Hugh Daigle, an associate professor of petroleum engineering with the University of Texas, Austin. Oil companies’ shareholders have been demanding better returns on their investments, especially after the last major boom-and-bust cycle from 2014 through 2016. At the time, companies flooded the market when oil prices spiked by rushing to produce as much as possible in shale plays, which usually were running on low margins. That influx of product caused prices to eventually crater, offering lower returns than investors expected, with many eventually losing money. Since then, Daigle said, investors have told oil companies not to repeat those same mistakes. Even with the potential for oil prices to keep rising following OPEC’s announcement, Daigle and Lipow said they don’t expect companies to start a pumping frenzy. “In the short term, I think a lot of people are going to take a wait and see approach in light of the capital discipline we’ve seen across the industry,”

US pledges to keep pumping natural gas to Europe – natural gas (LNG) to EU ports this year as the Continent aims to continue weaning itself off Russian energy supplies.“Over the past year, the United States and Europe have thrown our energy security cooperation into even higher gear,” said U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken, in the EU capital for a summit with his EU counterpart Josep Borrell.The bloc last year imported 56 billion cubic meters (bcm) of U.S. LNG, more than double the previous year's level. The U.S. pledgedthat it will send "at least 50 bcm" to Europe this year.American LNG was crucial in staving off a winter energy emergency as Russia throttled its natural gas deliveries. Before Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Russia accounted for over 40 percent of the EU's gas demand, but that's now fallen to about 12 percent. The EU has seen gas prices steadily drop thanks to increased non-Russian supplies, a warmer-than-expected winter and demand reduction. The challenge now is to pump the bloc's gas storages full before the start of the next winter heating season. U.S. LNG is "necessary given the challenging supply situation and the need to ensure storage filling for the next winter 2023-24," the White House said.That message comes as global competition in the LNG market is likely to get fiercer, linked to China's reviving economy.Both EU and U.S. officials made clear that there's no going back to the old reliance on Russia."I believe this is not a temporary situation, but marks a structural change in Europe's energy outlook and trade orientation," said Energy Commissioner Kadri Simson.Tuesday's meeting was the 10th EU-U.S. Energy Council — a yearly forum aimed at coordinating stances on strategic issues ranging from energy security to shifting to cleaner forms of energy and keeping the Paris Agreement alive.

Global banks pledged to cut emissions – but still invest billions on US gas exports - America’s massive gas export boom is about to get bigger. By the end of the decade, the Gulf coast could see as many as 12 new liquefied natural gas terminals (LNG) built along its shores. This expansion would triple the amount of gas the US currently exports to be burned around the world, adding more than 200 coal plants worth of greenhouse gas emissions each year, according to one estimate. The terminals can’t move forward without money from the megabanks that bankrolled the first boom less than a decade ago. Almost all of these same banks have pledged to work toward a world with net-zero emissions. But for many, their climate targets explicitly exempt LNG projects. Banks have argued LNG exports help reduce climate pollution by replacing coal with gas but critics say the full emissions of the exports, including producing and moving that fuel around the world, make that calculus questionable. “Fossil fuel expansion is fundamentally incompatible with meeting that net-zero goal,” says Adele Shraiman, a campaign representative with Sierra Club’s Fossil-Free Finance project. In March, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change warned any new fossil fuel development is likely to push the earth’s climate past an increasingly dangerous 2 degrees of warming. Both environmental groups and major investors have said banks are not using their financial power fast enough to cut carbon pollution and invest in zero-emissions energy. About 20 banks have financed the majority of the construction costs for LNG along the US Gulf coast. By the end of 2022, those financial institutions had provided loans or bond underwriting, combined, of more than $110bn, according to data compiled by the Sierra Club. An additional $14bn has been financed this year. About a quarter of the $110bn came from three financial institutions: SMBC, Mizuho and MUFG – Japan’s megabanks, which supported the building of export terminals including Sabine Pass, Corpus Christi and Plaquemines. Japan’s need for LNG in the wake of the Fukushima nuclear disaster led to those investments, and while they have pledged to cut carbon emissions, they have made no promises around LNG. Four of the six largest US banks – Morgan Stanley, JP Morgan Chase, Goldman Sachs and Bank of America – have backed export terminal construction in the region with almost $22bn in loans and underwriting. The top banks backing LNG projects in the US either declined to comment to Floodlight or did not answer written questions. Shraiman, of the Sierra Club, said US banks are trailing other global financial institutions, especially European banks, in both their pledges to reduce emissions and in actually cutting fossil fuel financing. Of the six major US banks, only Wells Fargo and Citibank, the only two major US banks not as heavily invested in LNG, have absolute emissions targets for 2030 for the oil and gas sector – publicly committing to a reduction of 26% and 29% percent respectively from 2019 levels. Others have only committed to lowering the average intensity of the emissions across all the projects they finance. This would potentially allow the total amount of greenhouse gasses they finance to grow, including increasing investments in gas that are less polluting than oil and coal, but expand their total carbon footprint.

Alaska oil plan opponents lose 1st fight over Willow project (AP) — Environmentalists lost the first round of their legal battle over a major oil project on Alaska’s petroleum-rich North Slope on Monday as a judge rejected their requests to halt immediate construction work related to the Willow project, but they vowed not to give up. The court’s decision means ConocoPhillips Alaska can forge ahead with cold-weather construction work, including mining gravel and using it for a road toward the Willow project. Environmentalists worry that noise from blasting and road construction could affect caribou. U.S. District Court Judge Sharon Gleason said she took into account support for the project by Alaska political leaders — including state lawmakers and Alaska’s bipartisan congressional delegation. She said she also gave “considerable weight” to the support for Willow by an Alaska Native village corporation, an Alaska Native regional corporation and the North Slope Borough, while also recognizing that project support among Alaska Natives is not unanimous.Environmental groups and an Alaska Native organization, Sovereign Iñupiat for a Living Arctic, had asked Gleason to delay construction related to Willow while their lawsuits are pending. They ultimately want Gleason to overturn the project’s approval, saying the U.S. Bureau of Land Management failed to consider an adequate range of alternatives.

It’s Not Just Willow: Oil and Gas Projects Are Back in a Big Way - When the Biden administration greenlighted the enormous $8 billion Willow oil project on Alaska’s North Slope last month, many decried the move as a betrayal of the United States’ pledge to move away from fossil fuels in the fight against climate change. But an analysis of global data shows that Willow represents a small fraction of hundreds of new oil and gas extraction projects approved in the past year across the world, including many more in the United States. And in the coming months, dozens of additional projects are expected to be approved. New oil and gas projects Top 30 countries where projects are approved or expected to be approved in 2022 and 2023. Data does not include fracking. [embedded table] The data reflect a surging fossil fuel industry that has rebounded to prepandemic levels of growth. Even though the past few years have seen many countries institute policies that encourage renewable energy, demand for fossil fuels remains high. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine drove up oil prices, contributing to record profits for fossil fuel companies, as governments scrambled to secure their energy supplies, sending prices soaring. “It’s a full bounce-back,” said Espen Erlingsen, a partner at Rystad Energy, the research firm that provided the data. “The future of this growth depends on policy. If the world wants to limit warming, it will have to limit demand for oil and gas because this industry can deliver this kind of volume for many more decades.” Much of the growth is taking place in traditional oil- and gas-producing nations such as the United States, Saudi Arabia and Norway. Gas, in particular, is booming. Qatar is planning to unveil the world’s biggest gas production facility in 2025. In the United States, the fracking of shale rock beds for gas is resurgent, accounting for many times the level of investment and extraction as a project like Willow. While gas causes fewer greenhouse gas emissions than oil does, the expansion of gas exploitation is incompatible with commitments that nations have made to limit emissions, according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the pre-eminent grouping of scientists who study global warming. The IPCC says that fossil fuel production must start declining sharply now to avoid the most catastrophic effects of climate change. Vast new oil fields have also been approved for exploitation by Western multinational companies in Guyana, Brazil and Uganda, among others. Some developing countries have argued that income from fossil fuel — essential to the prosperity of the industrialized world — is also their right, and that climate change mitigation is largely the responsibility of wealthy nations.

Qatar Staking Out Eastern Canada Offshore for More Natural Gas, Oil Prospects - Qatar’s state-owned energy producer is looking to Eastern Canada to build exploration prospects after taking sizable stakes in ExxonMobil’s Newfoundland and Canada offshore acreage. QatarEnergy agreed to join ExxonMobil Canada in developing exploration licenses (EL) 1162 and 1167, both in the deep waters offshore Eastern Canada. While Eastern Canada is not known as a natural gas-rich basin, the global producer and liquefied natural gas leader has for years worked to capture energy opportunities beyond its borders. The latest agreement, said QatarEnergy CEO Saad Sherida Al-Kaabi, is designed “to further grow our offshore Atlantic Canada portfolio as part of our international growth drive, and look forward to continue working within Canada’s transparent and stable regulatory environment.” Under the agreement, QatarEnergy gained a 28% interest in EL 1167, “where the Gale exploration well and associated activities are planned,” executives said. ExxonMobil operates EL 1167 with a 50% stake with Calgary-based Cenovus Energy a 22% stakeholder. QatarEnergy also gained a 40% working interest in EL 1162, in which ExxonMobil controls 60%. Financial details were not disclosed. Both of the EL areas lie in water depths of 100-1,200 meters (328-3,937 feet). EL 1167 covers an area of about 1,420 kilometers (km), or 882 square miles. EL 1162 encompasses about 2,400 square km (1,491 square miles). ExxonMobil and QatarEnergy long have partnered on global ventures, including in Eastern Canada’s offshore. Last fall the duo were awarded Parcel 8, considered a key deepwater exploration block in the Orphan Basin. In the Orphan venture, ExxonMobil operates and controls 70%, while QatarEnergy is minority leaseholder. Parcel 8 is in water depths of 2,500 to 3,000 meters (8,202-9,842 feet). It covers around 2,700-3,000 square km (1,678-1,864 square miles). QatarEnergy began working offshore Eastern Canada two years ago after joining ExxonMobil in EL 1165A. In that venture, QatarEnergy also holds a 40% minority participating interest, with ExxonMobil controlling the majority stake. Last year ExxonMobil and QatarEnergy were awarded Parcel 8, a deepwater block in the Orphan Basin offered in the call for bids NL22-CFB01. ExxonMobil also operates the block with a 70% stake, with Qatar holding a 30% interest. Orphan for many years has drawn the attention of the world’s integrated majors.ExxonMobil is also QatarEnergy’s minority partner in the 16 million metric tons/year Golden Pass liquefied natural gas export project currently under construction southeast of Houston. The firm has said its investment in North American natural gas exports will help provide flexible cargoes for its global portfolio as it commits volumes from its expansions of domestic projects to portfolio players and Asian firms.

First Russian Shipment of (Allegedly) Diesel Docks in Mexico Since G7 Plus-Imposed Price Cap, Stoking Controversy and Confusion - Last Thursday (March 30), a cargo ship called the Loukas I landed at the Mexican port of Guaymas, in Sonora. The vessel had set off from Novorossiysk, Russia, on February 19 and done a stopover in Spain. But it is not clear what was on board. For weeks the London-based price reporting agency Argus Media maintained that the ship was carrying Russian diesel. If true (a big “IF”), it would make it the first tanker of Russian oil to dock and unload in a Mexican port since the G7 imposed a cap on the price of Russian petroleum products in February. From El País:The Argus consultancy, an organization that produces international market analysis, mentioned in a report that the Loukas I was heading to Mexico loaded with 145,400 barrels of diesel of Russian origin. The prestigious firm explained that the ship, which left from Novorossiysk, Russia, would be the first of several fuel shipments brought to the Mexican market. “The Government of Mexico, through its state company Petróleos Mexicanos, aims to keep increases in gasoline and diesel prices below the inflation rate (…) A cheaper fuel supply from Russia could alleviate the pressure on Mexican finances”, said the consultant in a report that has generated a lot of attention.The Russian Embassy described the allegations as “fake news” while the port authorities in Guaymas insisted the vessel was carrying Russian fertilisers. Petróleos Mexicanos (aka Pemex) also denied the claims, asserting that the shipment was for a private company: “It is not ours or one of our subsidiaries'”. Mexico gets most of its diesel from US refineries, though Pemex has recently increased its output of finished gasoline and diesel.In February, as readers are well aware, the G7, the European Union and Australia agreed to limit the price of Russian diesel and other refined petroleum products, in the hope of squeezing Russian revenues. They set two price limits: a $100 per-barrel cap on products that trade at a premium to crude, such as diesel, and a $45 cap for petroleum products such as fuel oil and industrial lubricant oil.Relatively speaking, this is a small club of countries, accounting for roughly one-eighth of the global population — the so-called “Golden Billion,” as Putin disparagingly calls it. But its numbers are shrinking in size: in recent days G7 member Japan, one of the original signatories of the price cap measures, broke ranks and is now buying Russian oil at prices above the cap once again, arguing that its economy needs continued cheap access to Russian energy. So far, no other countries beyond the “Golden Billion” have agreed to apply the price caps. Instead, global demand for Russian diesel appears to be rising. According to Argus, Russian diesel exporters were more successful in selling their products in March thanks to higher discounts. This, it says, “has encouraged significant shipments from Russia to the Middle East, West Africa, transatlantic to Brazil and now to Mexico.”

WaPo: Officials at NATO Meetings Know Not to Talk About Nord Stream Bombings - The Washington Post reported on Monday that some Western officials are not eager to find out who was behind the bombings of the Nord Stream natural gas pipelines that connect Russia to Germany.An unnamed senior European diplomat told the Post that there is an understanding at gatherings of European and NATO policymakers: “Don’t talk about Nord Stream.”The report says: “Leaders see little benefit from digging too deeply and finding an uncomfortable answer, the diplomat said, echoing sentiments of several peers in other countries who said they would rather not have to deal with the possibility that Ukraine or allies were involved.”In February, investigative journalist Seymour Hersh published a bombshell report that said the US was behind the Nord Stream bombings. Hersh alleges US Navy divers planted explosives on the pipelines in an operation ordered by President Biden and carried out with the cooperation of Norway.The Post report said suspicion for the attacks has fallen on Ukraine and Poland. It does not mention Hersh’s findings but casts doubt on a new narrative that the perpetrators of the bombings planted explosives using a 5o foot sailboat. Investigators are now saying the Yacht, the Andromeda, could not have been the only vessel used to carry out the operation and think it could have been used as a decoy to distract from the true perpetrators.The idea that a yacht was used in the attack first surfaced in a report from the German newspaper Die Zeit in an article published on March 7. Hersh recently published another report that cited anonymous sources who said the Die Zeit story and another article published in The New York Times on the same day were planted by the CIA.Hersh said the CIA was ordered to develop a cover story in coordination with German intelligence following a March 3 meeting in Washington between President Biden and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz. An American intelligence source told Hersh that the cover-up was concocted to discredit his Nord Stream report.“It was a total fabrication by American intelligence that was passed along to the Germans, and aimed at discrediting your story,” the source told Hersh.

German Insurers Renew Cover for Blast-damaged Nord Stream Gas Pipeline -- German insurers Allianz and Munich Re have renewed cover for the damaged Russia-controlled Nord Stream 1 gas pipeline, five sources with knowledge of the matter said, indicating that its revival has not been ruled out after an alleged sabotage attack. Insurance by two of Germany's biggest companies is critical for any long-term future of the pipeline, which was the main route for Russian gas to Europe for a decade before the blast last September. The insurance stands in contrast to Germany's public stance of severing ties with Moscow, but one of the five sources said the German government had not opposed the cover. Most Western investors have written off their stakes in the pipeline. Munich Re, Allianz and Germany's chancellery declined to comment, while the economy ministry said insurance was not part of the support the government had in the past provided for the pipeline. Russia has a 51% stake in Nord Stream 1 through a subsidiary of the state-owned energy group Gazprom. Some of Nord Stream's German shareholders favor at least preserving the damaged pipeline in case relations with Moscow improve, two people familiar with the matter said separately. One of the people said that Berlin tolerated such an approach to the infrastructure, even though it has said that energy ties with Russia are severed. All of the insurance industry and trade sources declined to be named because of the sensitivity of the issue. The insurance policy covers damage to the pipeline and business interruption issues, one of the sources said. Having insurance would also facilitate any repair work needed to resume gas supplies under the Baltic Sea to Europe.

Lower Natural Gas Price Is Not All Good News For Europe --Europe successfully avoided a gas shortage crisis this winter thanks to high LNG imports, reduced demand, and milder weather. As a result, European natural gas prices have fallen to the levels from January 2022, just before the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This week, the front-month futures at the TTF hub, the benchmark for Europe’s gas trading, hovered around $47 (43 euros) per megawatt-hour (MWh), down from over $142 (130 euros) at the start of the 2022/2023 winter heating season and from the record-high of $350 (320 euros) per MWh in August 2022.Warmer winter weather and subdued LNG demand from Asia helped Europe fill storage sites to adequate levels before the heating season and exit that season with inventories well above historical averages.As fears of a gas crunch have subsided this winter, pulling European natural gas prices down, Europe shouldn’t count on another warmer-than-usual winter and less competition from Asia as it starts to prepare for the 2023/2024 winter, analysts say.Contrary to initial expectations, the 2022/2023 winter went surprisingly well, but the energy crisis isn’t over, and Europe is not out of the woods yet.Last year, Asia—including China—saw LNG imports decline amid high spot prices and a slowdown in the Chinese economy. With China’s reopening, however, demand for gas and LNG is set to rebound, increasing the competition between Asia and Europe for spot supply, analysts say.They also warn that next winter could be much worse for Europe if Asian—especially Chinese—demand rebounds and intensifies the competition between the European and Asian markets for drawing more LNG supply.In a market with stronger competition from Asia for LNG supply, the current European gas prices may not be enough to continue attracting spot cargoes, analysts at Swedish bank SEB said in anote this week.The current European gas price is too low. Prices between 60 and 75 euros/MWh are probably needed in 2023 to keep demand subdued, LNG imports high, and inventories elevated.“The EU will have to match whatever Asia is willing to pay plus a premium in a bidding war to keep LNG imports flowing to the EU,” SEB analysts wrote.The bank expects the European TTF price to climb from early to mid-April and average 60 euros/MWh in the second quarter of 2023, followed by 70 euros/MWh and 75 euros/MWh for Q3 and Q4, respectively.Spot LNG demand in Asia hasn’t been great so far this year, with prices falling to a 21-month low last week, per industry estimates cited by ReutersThe weekly average front-month futures prices for LNG cargoes in East Asia fell to $12.72 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) in the week to March 30, the EIA said in its weekly report citing data from Bloomberg Finance. On the other hand, the equivalent of Europe’s benchmark price in MMBtu rose to a weekly average of $13.47/MMBtu.Europe’s price is still above the one in Asia by a slight margin, but with Asian demand expected to pick up later this year with the Chinese reopening, European importers may have to pay up for spot supply to beat competition from the Asian market.Last year, LNG imports to China fell by an extraordinary 20%, Wood Mackenzie has estimated.“One of the risks of China’s return to normality has been the impact it could have on European gas imports which swallowed up a substantial proportion of the supply void left by the country’s relative inactivity,” the consultancy said in a report on how the Chinese reopening could super-charge energy commodity prices this year.

'Petrodollar' at risk as TotalEnergies sells LNG to China in yuan - Chinese and French energy companies this week finalised the first-ever deal on liquified natural gas (LNG) in China settled in the renminbi yuan currency. The trade, involving 65,000 tons of LNG imported from the United Arab Emirates, marks a major step in Beijing's attempts to undermine the US dollar as universal "petrodollar" for gas and oil trade.Yu Jin, the general manager of the China National Offshore Oil Company (CNOOC,) which closed the deal with TotalEnergies, says global resource procurement based on the yuan could "promote the globalisation of energy trading and build a more diversified ecology."Guo Xu, chairman of the Shanghai Petroleum and Natural Gas Exchange which facilitated the deal, was quoted by the state-controlled China Daily saying the transaction promoted "multi-currency pricing, settlement and cross-border payment".The says China is a major player in the global LNG market, adding the "financial infrastructure of cross-border yuan settlement" would provide "more convenient channels for domestic and international oil and gas resources".French economic daily La Tribune reported that TotalEnergies "simply explained that this unprecedented yuan transaction was 'a request from CNOOC' in a hydrocarbon market where purchases have long been settled in dollars."Neither TotalEnergies nor CNOOC wanted to comment in detail on the deal, according to the paper.

Joe Biden pushed for fracking in Ukraine days after Hunter joined Burisma board - Joe Biden pushed for Ukraine to frack gas during his 2014 vice presidential visit – just days after his son Hunter joined the board of a firm set to profit from it. The first son joined the board of allegedly corrupt Ukrainian gas firm Burisma on April 18, 2014, the company announced in a press release at the time. Three days later, Joe was aboard Air Force 2 for an official visit to the East European country. One of his senior officials briefed reporters on the plane that the VP was pushing 'medium- and long-term strategies to boost conventional gas production, and also to begin to take advantage of the unconventional gas reserves that are in Ukraine.' The 'unconventional' reserves were a reference to fracking, a gas extraction method for which Burisma was one of the few firms in Ukraine to have a license at the time. The official said Joe was also promising help for Ukrainian energy firms from US experts. Biden's push for greater energy production was politically significant – making Ukraine more economically independent from Russia. But the move also led to millions of dollars for the company his son was then working for. According to Burisma's website, it ramped up production from 100million cubic meters in 2010 to 1.3 billion cubic meters in 2018 – when it generated revenues of at least $400million, according to a Reuters estimate. In 2019 Burisma held 35 licenses for hydrocarbon production in Ukraine's main oil and gas basins. According to energy industry publication KeyFactsEnergy.com it began using hydraulic fracturing, known as fracking, in 2016 and by May 2019 used the technology in 10% of its wells. A Burisma executive explained how the company benefited from the help of US expertise in Ukraine, in a 2017 interview with Ukrainian trade publication Nefterynok. Head of country operations Taras Burdeinyi said Burisma partnered with US firms ​​Schlumberger and ProPetro Services for fracking in Ukraine, allowing it to grow the 'largest modern rig fleet' in the country, three years after Biden's intervention. Mike McCormick, a White House stenographer who was on board the April 2014 Air Force 2 flight, told DailyMail.com that the anonymous 'senior official' who gave the briefing was Jake Sullivan, who now serves as President Biden's National Security Advisor. 'Our job basically was to record everything that was said to the press, or public facing, and very quickly make transcripts that the White House could release,' McCormick said.'The flight was on April 21, Easter Monday. We flew from DC to Ukraine on Air Force Two. My job was to sit in the back with journalists, with a tape recorder and microphone in case there was a statement to the press.'Sullivan came to the back and did a briefing as a "senior administration official". They wanted to publicize what he said, they weren't afraid of it. But as a senior administration official, so no name attached to it. Transcripts of the briefing show Sullivan was identified only as a 'senior administration official' to avoid 'attaching a name to it'

Japan Breaks With U.S. Allies, Buys Russian Oil at Prices Above Cap - WSJ —The U.S. has rallied its European allies behind a $60-a-barrel cap on purchases of Russian crude oil, but one of Washington’s closest allies in Asia is now buying oil at prices above the cap.Japan got the U.S. to agree to the exception, saying it needed it to ensure access to Russian energy. The concession shows Japan’s reliance on Russia for fossil fuels, which analysts said contributed to a hesitancy in Tokyo to back Ukraine more fully in its war with Russia.

India’s average crude oil imports from Russia at 1 million barrels/day in FY23 - India on an average imported almost 1 million barrels per day (mb/d) of crude oilfrom Russia in FY23, ended March 2023, becoming the largest buyer of the seaborne commodity from the erstwhile Soviet Union, surpassing China.According to the energy intelligence firm Vortexa, India, which imported a record 1.65 mb/d in March 2023, surpassed China as Russia’s largest seaborne crude oil buyer in December 2022. March was the fourth consecutive month of India taking the top spot. A back of the envelope calculation of India’s crude oil purchases during FY23 from Russia, as per Vortexa data, shows that on an average the contract size was 999,817.3 barrels per day (bp/d). In FY23 till February, India’s total crude oil imports stood at 211.6 million tonnes (MT) worth a whopping $146.6 billion.At present, Russia, which accounted for less than 2 per cent of India’s imports till February 2022, now has a share of more than 35 per cent. For comparison, the world’s third largest fuel guzzler imported 212.4 MT of crude oil worth $120.7 billion in the entire FY22.The second half of FY23 witnessed a significant growth in supplies with cargoes surpassing 1 mb/d from December 2022 onwards. Barring April 2022 (269,634 bp/d) and June (945,296.5 bp/d), the crude supplies between April-November 2022 stood in the range of 730,000 to 930,000 bp/d. A senior government official said India will continue to purchase crude oil from Russia, and “other markets” and is always “exploring a better deal”. “Till the price cap is not disturbed, there is no issue with imports from Russia. We will continue it. With the OPEC+ production cuts, it becomes more important for India to secure affordable and assured supplies to shield the oil marketing companies (OMCs) who have to endure under recoveries to shield the citizens from high prices,” the official added.

Russia shifts to Dubai benchmark in Indian oil deal: Sources -- Russia's largest oil producer Rosneft and India's top refiner Indian Oil Corp agreed to use the Asia-focused Dubai oil price benchmark in their latest deal to deliver Russian oil to India, three sources familiar with the deal said. The decision by the two state-controlled companies to abandon the Europe-dominated Brent benchmark is part of a shift of Russia's oil sales towards Asia after Europe shunned Russian oil following Russia's invasion of Ukraine more than a year ago. Both benchmarks are denominated in dollars and set by S&P Platts, a unit of U.S.-based S&P Global Inc, but Brent is mostly used by European oil majors and traders, whereas Dubai is heavily influenced by Asian and Middle Eastern oil trading. Rosneft's chief executive Igor Sechin said in February that the price of Russian oil would be determined outside of Europe as Asia has emerged as largest buyer of Russian oil since the West imposed progressively tighter sanctions on the export. Under the new deal, announced on March 29, Rosneft will nearly double oil sales to Indian Oil Corp, two of the sources told Reuters. IOC and Rosneft did not immediately respond to Reuters emails seeking comment on the details of the agreement, which have not been previously reported. Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said on Tuesday that Russian oil sales to India jumped 22-fold last year, but he did not specify the volume sold.

Pakistan to receive first shipment of Russian oil next month, claims minister -- Minister of State for Petroleum Musadik Malik on Monday claimed that the first-ever shipment of cheap oil from Russia would reach Pakistan next month, reported Geo News. During an interview with a private news channel, the State Minister said that Islamabad has finalised the deal with Moscow, adding, "The first shipment will reach next month through a cargo." The State minister also assured that the government would pass on the benefit of cheap oil to consumers. Responding to a question about rationalising power and gas tariffs, he said the government would introduce different tariffs for the poor and elite class, reported Geo News. The deal, which has been in the making for months, could ease some of Pakistan's fiscal trouble as the country, a net importer of energy, looked for ways to cut its oil import bill. Malik said the government had already made progress in this regard and hoped to issue separate billing for the underprivileged and elite class, reported Geo News. The poor segment of society will enjoy relief after the announcement of this tariff, he further said. "However, it will take some time for the oil to reach Pakistan ... nearly 26 to 27 days," he stated, revealing that the commodity will arrive in the country via sea.

Philippines, China meet next month on oil exploration - — Negotiations for joint oil and gas exploration in the West Philippine Sea are set to resume in Beijing next month, according to the Department of Foreign Affairs (DFA). In a statement, the DFA said Philippine and Chinese officials are set to meet for preparatory talks “sometime in May.” “The meeting will discuss parameters and terms of reference,” the DFA said in a statement. In his state visit to China on Jan. 5, President Marcos agreed with Beijing “to resume discussions on oil and gas development at an early date,” the DFA said. Foreign Affairs Secretary Enrique Manalo said they would regularly provide concerned parties and the public updates on the talks. In October, Chinese Ambassador Huang Xilian said China was hopeful of finding “some way out” of its rift with the Philippines and begin the joint oil and gas exploration in the West Philippine Sea as early as possible.

Nigerians accuse Shell of delay in oil spill London lawsuits -Shell Plc is attempting to shield itself from scrutiny over pollution in Nigeria’s oil-producing Niger Delta, lawyers representing more than 13,000 Nigerians argued at London’s High Court on Tuesday, allegations which the company strongly denies. Thousands of members of the Bille and Ogale communities are suing Shell and its Nigerian subsidiary SPDC over oil spills. Shell strongly denies any liability and argues that parts of the cases were brought too late. It also says the majority of the spills were caused by illegal third-party interference, such as pipeline sabotage and oil theft. The company is asking the High Court to set an initial trial in early 2024 to decide whether parts of the case were brought too late and whether SPDC is liable for oil spills caused by third-party interference. Shell says two further trials could then take place to determine allegations against its subsidiary and Shell’s alleged liability as its parent company. Shell’s proposal is “advanced as a device to shield (Shell) from scrutiny”, Richard Hermer, a lawyer representing the claimants, said in court filings. The case, parts of which began back in 2015, has already been to the UK’s Supreme Court, which ruled in 2021 that there was an arguable case that Shell owed the claimants a duty of care. Hermer said allowing Shell’s application could put off a final decision on the lawsuits until 2029. “The reality is that the defendants can readily afford for their claimants to run for seven more years but the claimants cannot,” he said. However, Shell’s lawyer James Goldsmith told the court that “the claimants are responsible for the ongoing delays” by failing to provide enough detail about their cases. “This is not an attempt to delay matters or out-resource the claimants,” he added. A Shell spokesperson said in a statement: “We believe litigation does little to address the real problem in the Niger Delta: oil spills due to theft, illegal refining and sabotage, with which SPDC is constantly faced and which cause the most environmental damage.”

Efforts to contain oil spill ramped up - RAMPING up efforts to contain the oil leaking from the sunken MT Princess Empress off Oriental Mindoro, authorities have started a “bagging” operation to “seal off the leaks.” In a statement last Saturday night, the Office of Civil Defense (OCD) said the operation is being done by personnel of the Philippine Coast Guard and Japanese dynamic positioning vessel Shin Nichi Maru using the remotely operated vessel (ROV) aboard the Japanese vessel. “Specialized bags to be used in the bagging technique to stop the oil leakage were sent to the country by the government of the United Kingdom to support the operations,” the OCD said. “The bagging technique is part of the next operational phase of PCG’s oil spill management operations,” added the OCD, the implementing arm of the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council. After bagging, the next phase of the operation will be to patch the leaks, hot tapping and siphoning of the oil remaining inside the vessel. Citing information from Oriental Mindoro Gov. Humerlito Dolor, the OCD said more “customized bags” from a plant in Cavite are due to arrive in the province to support the operation. OCD administrator and concurrent NDRRMC executive director Ariel Nepomuceno expressed gratitude to countries that are providing assistance in the oil response operations. “We are grateful for all the support from the other countries in addressing this emergency,” said Nepomuceno. “We hope that along with this international assistance, the integrated response between government agencies and the local government units will enable us to accelerate the effort to contain the leakage and mitigate the impacts of the oil spill,” he added. The United States, among the countries that have extended assistance, has sent an anchor handling vessel, the Pacific Valkyrie with an ROV, that arrived in Subic, Zambales last Tuesday. The vessel will proceed to Oriental Mindoro “once all mandatory checks and preparations are completed.” Last Friday, Korean Coast Guard representatives went to the provincial capitol in Calapan City to discuss with PCG officials “approaches to improve the response operations being implemented,” the OCD said. The MT Princess Empress was traveling to Iloilo from Bataan when it sank off Naujan in Oriental Mindoro last February 28. Last March 1, the PCG said oil was spilling from the tanker in the waters of Naujan. The oil spill drifted to Caluya in Antique last March 3 while oil sheens and thick patches were seen along Verde Island on March 20, Tingloy on March 21 and the shoreline of Batangas City on March 25.

South Korea donates equipment to contain oil spill in Mindoro { The Republic of Korea has donated sorbent pads and other equipment that will be used in the operations to contain the oil spill off the waters of Oriental Mindoro and nearby areas following the sinking of an oil tanker on Feb. 28. In a statement, the Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) said it already received the equipment from the Republic of Korea after its arrival on Wednesday, April 5. “The Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) received the donations for immediate transport to Oriental Mindoro to augment the ongoing offshore and shoreline response operations,” the statement read. Donated were 20 tons of sorbent pads and snares; 1,000 meters of solid flotation curtain boom; and 2,000 sets of personal protective equipment (PPE). South Korea is among the countries that has been actively assisting the PCG in containing the oil spill, brought by the sinking of MT Princess Empress which was then carrying 820,000 liters of industrial fuel. In its latest update, the PCG said it collected 16,333 liters of oily water mixture and 135.5 sacks of oil-contaminated materials collected during its offshore oil spill response operations. For shoreline response, the PCG said it collected 184 sacks of oil-contaminated materials on April 5. So far, the PCG has already collected 4,841.5 sacks and 22 drums of waste collected in 14 affected barangays in Naujan, Bulalacao, and Pola, Oriental Mindoro from March 1 to April 5.

QatarEnergy to acquire 40% working interest offshore Mauritania - QatarEnergy will purchase a 40% working interest in the C-10 offshore Mauritania block, the company announced following an agreement with Shell. The Exploration and Production Agreement for the C-10 block will give QatarEnergy a 40% working interest, in accordance with the terms of the contract and subject to Mauritania’s usual approvals. As the operator, Shell will own a 50% stake, and 10% will be held by Société Mauritanienne des Hydrocarbures (SMH). The C-10 block is situated 50 kilometres off the coast of Mauritania and has a total area of approximately 11,500 square kilometres. The water depths range from 50 to 2,000 metres.

Iraq agrees to 30% stake in TotalEnergies $27 bln energy project - Iraq said on Tuesday it has agreed to a smaller 30% stake in TotalEnergies long-delayed $27 billion project, reviving a deal that Baghdad hopes could lure back foreign investment into the battered country which craves stability. The deal was signed in 2021 for TotalEnergies to build four oil, gas and renewables projects with an initial investment of $10 billion in southern Iraq over 25 years. But it has experienced several setbacks amid disputes between Iraqi politicians over terms.Iraq’s cabinet said in a late Tuesday statement that it had approved the amended 30% share “due to the importance of resolving the issue and proceeding with the signing of related agreements.” Earlier on Tuesday, three sources told Reuters that Iraq has agreed to lower its share to 30% from 40% in the project, which was a key sticking point as TotalEnergies wants a majority stake. Iraq’s state-owned Basrah Oil (BOC) will partner in the project, instead of the now-abolished Iraq’s National Oil company (INOC), the cabinet statement added. The potential for INOC’s involvement had been another stumbling block for the deal. Iraq, OPEC’s second largest producer, has been for years plagued by war, corruption and sectarian tensions that have held back its potential.

Oil prices jump after OPEC+ announces surprise production cuts | The Hill - Oil prices surged after key oil producing countries announced a round of surprise production cuts Sunday totaling some 1.16 million barrels per day, a move that spurred criticism from the White House. Reuters reported that oil prices jumped about $5 per barrel as trading opened in Asia Monday morning, with Brent Futures crude prices jumping about 6.3 percent to $84.95 a barrel, its highest price in about a month.West Texas Intermediate crude also jumped as much as 8 percent in early trading, hitting about $80 a barrel, in its biggest singe-day jump in a year, according to Bloomberg. Saudi Arabia, along with Russia and other OPEC+ countries, announced the production cut, which will start next month, on Sunday, in a move aimed at increasing global oil prices.It comes on top of a previous commitment by the producers to cut production by 2 million barrels a day through the end of the year. Saudi Arabia alone announced that it would start a 500,000 barrel-a-day reduction.A spokesperson for the White House’s National Security Council panned the cuts on Sunday.“We don’t think cuts are advisable at this moment given market uncertainty — and we’ve made that clear,” the spokesperson said, adding the administration remains focused on bringing down oil prices in the U.S. from their peak last year, where gas prices hit a high of $5 a gallon.

Oil surges most in a year after OPEC+'s shocking production cut - Oil rallied the most in more than a year after OPEC+ unexpectedly announced output cuts that threaten to tighten the market and deliver a fresh inflationary jolt to the world economy. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies, including Russia, pledged to make cuts exceeding 1 million barrels a day starting next month and lasting through the end of the year. The reduction surprised markets, which had expected the cartel to hold output steady. Adding to the shock, the decision came outside of the group’s scheduled timetable for reviewing the market’s demand and member’s supplies. The decision quickly rippled across global oil markets. WTI’s prompt-spread flipped into backwardation for the first time since December, signaling renewed strength as traders see demand outstripping supply. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. lifted price forecasts for this year and 2024 and U.S. gasoline futures also surged, underscoring inflationary risks. Embedded Image “OPEC+ shows commitment to protecting against the downside,” said Nadia Martin Wiggen, a partner at Pareto Securities. “The duration of the cut is the most surprising and bullish part.” Before the surprise intervention, crude had capped a 5.7 per cent quarterly drop amid banking-sector turmoil and recession risks. Many market watchers had expected a rebound in the second half, underpinned by rising demand in China. Bucking Wall Street’s spate of higher calls in the wake of the decision, Morgan Stanley noted China’s demand growth has lagged expectations and lowered its price forecast. The White House said the OPEC+ decision was ill-advised, while adding the U.S. would work with producers and consumers to contain gasoline prices. With the U.S. driving season around the corner, the cartel’s cut could add more than 50 cents a gallon to the national average of pump prices. Last year faced with skyrocketing prices after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, President Joe Biden ordered an unprecedentedly large release from the nation’s strategic crude reserves. Costlier crude threatens to add to inflation, complicating central banks’ efforts to tame persistent price pressures. The U.S. Federal Reserve raised interest rates again last month, and officials are next scheduled to meet in May to set monetary policy. WTI for May delivery rose US$4.75 to US$80.42 a barrel at 2:30 p.m. in New York. Futures rallied by as much as 8 per cent earlier, the biggest intraday increase since March 2022. Brent for June settlement gained US$5.16 to US$84.93 a barrel. </P

Oil prices surge 8% after OPEC's surprise output cuts; analysts warn of $100 per barrel- Oil prices notch biggest gain in nearly a year after OPEC's surprise output cut - Oil prices notched their biggest gain in nearly a year after OPEC+ announced it was slashing output by 1.16 million barrels per day. Brent crude futures settled higher by 6.31%, at $84.93 a barrel. The commodity had its best daily performance since March 21, 2022, when it gained 7.12%. West Texas Intermediate crude settled higher by 6.28%, at $80.42 a barrel. It was the biggest daily gain for WTI since April 12, 2022, when it rose 6.69%.The voluntary cuts will begin in May and run until the end of 2023, Saudi Arabia announced, saying it was a "precautionary measure" targeted toward stabilizing the oil market.The move comes on the back of Russia's decision to trim oil production by 500,000 barrels per day until the end of 2023, according to the country's Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak.In addition to Saudi Arabia's output cut of 500,000 barrels per day, other member states have also pledged cuts: the UAE will be cutting output by 144,000 barrels per day, while Kuwait, Oman, Iraq, Algeria and Kazakhstan will also be reducing output."The selected involvement of the largest OPEC+ members suggest that adherence to production cuts may be stronger than has been the case in the past," Commonwealth Bank of Australia's Vivek Dhar said in a note."OPEC+'s plan for a further production cut may push oil prices toward the $100 mark again, considering China's reopening and Russia's output cuts as a retaliation move against western sanctions," CMC Markets' analyst Tina Teng told CNBC.Teng noted, however, that the cut could also reverse the decline in inflation, which would "complicate central banks' rate decisions."In March, oil prices tumbled to their lowest since December 2021, as traders feared the banking rout could dent global economic growth. The oil cartel and its allies are looking to avoid a repeat of the 2008 crash, one analyst said. "They're looking into the second half of this year and deciding they don't want to relive 2008," said Bob McNally, president of Rapidan Energy Group, citing oil prices crashing from $140 to $35 in six months in that year. McNally added that while it's not his base case, oil prices could "make a dash for $100 … if Chinese demand goes back to 16 million barrels a day second half of this year [and] if Russian supply starts to go off because of sanctions and so forth," "Then these cuts, if they stick with them, are going to super tighten the market," he said.

Death By 1.15 Million Cuts - OPEC stunned the market late on Sunday by announcing oil production cuts of around 1.15 million barrels per day. The announcement, strangely, came ahead of the actual OPEC meeting scheduled for today, and throws another spanner in the works for central bankers who may have just started to unclench their jaws a little with regards to the inflation situation. Indeed, US PCE inflation on Friday fell to 5.4% y-o-y, down from 5.3% a month earlier and a tick better than expected, but preliminary Eurozone core CPI actually lifted from a month earlier even as the headline figure fell by more than the Bloomberg survey had predicted. The durability of declining headline inflation must now be seriously questioned if oil producing countries are determined to ensure that oil prices have already bottomed. Rabobank’s energy expert, Joe DeLaura, had already seen Brent crude prices testing $85/bbl by the end of the year --as it is already is today-- and $100/bbl in 2025. The critical factor for central banks may now shift to the level at which those declines are likely to stop. Is it really going to be 2%? The OPEC+ production cuts come on top of the 500,000 bbl per day reduction announced by Russia in early March, and highlight how susceptible the economic outlook remains to (deliberate) supply shocks. The US response until now has been to release oil from its Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR), which has reduced stocks to its lowest level since the early 1980s. US Energy Secretary Granholm recently told Congress that it could take “years” to refill the SPR: the OPEC cuts may stretch Granholm’s timeline even further as crude prices get pushed further away from the levels at which the Biden Administration is happy to be a buyer. There is clearly an element of ‘oils ain’t oils’ about this, as energy is intensely political. For one example, the $60/bbl EU price cap on Russian exports, which Japan has just breached with permission, may soon have to be addressed by others if price rises are sustained. For another, see recent Japanese criticisms of Australia “quiet-quitting” the LNG market. But far more importantly, the new OPEC+ cuts are led by Saudi Arabia, which will drop output by 500,000 bbl, which is likely to further stoke tensions with the Biden administration, who were unhappy with Saudi unwillingness to increase oil output last year to help bring inflation under control, and as recent diplomatic developments in the Middle East show a closer relationship between Riyadh and Beijing.

OPEC: Saudis aren’t afraid of US anymore - The shock oil production cuts from May outlined by the OPEC+ on Sunday essentially means that eight key OPEC countries decided to join hands with Russia to reduce oil production, messaging that OPEC and OPEC+ are now back in control of the oil market. No single oil producing country is acting as the Pied Piper here. The great beauty about it is that Saudi Arabia and seven other major OPEC countries have unexpectedly decided to support Russia’s efforts and unilaterally reduce production. While the 8 OPEC countries are talking about a reduction of one million b/d from May to the end of the year, Russia will extend for the same period its voluntary adjustment that already started in March, by 500,000 barrels. Now, add to this the production adjustments already decided by the OPEC+ previously, and the total additional voluntary production adjustments touch a whopping 1.6 million b/d. What has led to this? Fundamentally, as many analysts had forewarned, the Western sanctions against Russian oil created distortions and anomalies in the oil market and upset the delicate ecosystem of supply and demand, which were compounded by the incredibly risky decision by the G7, at the behest of the US Treasury, to impose a price cap on Russia’s oil sales abroad. On top of it, the Biden administration’s provocative moves to release oil regularly from the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve in attempts to micromanage the oil prices and keep them abnormally low in the interests of the American consumer as well as to keep the inflationary pressures under check turned out to be an affront to the oil-producing countries whose economies critically depend on income from oil exports. The OPEC+ calls the production cuts “a precautionary measure aimed at supporting the stability of the oil market.” In the downstream of the OPEC+ decision, analysts expect the oil prices to rise in the short term and pressure on Western central banks to increase due to the possible spike in inflation. What stands out in the OPEC+ decision is that Russia’s decision to reduce oil production by the end of the year has been unanimously supported by the main Arab producers. Independent but time-coordinated statements were made by Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Kuwait, Iraq, Algeria, Oman and Kazakhstan, while Russia confirmed its intention to extend until the end of the year its own production reduction by 500,000 barrels per day, which began in March.

U.S. Losing Influence As Saudi Arabia Joins Shanghai Cooperation Organization - Saudi Arabia’s very public announcement last week that its cabinet had approved a plan to join the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) as a ‘dialogue partner’ is the surest sign yet that any U.S. efforts to keep it out of the China-Russia sphere of influence may now be futile. The Kingdom had already signed a memorandum of understanding on 16 September 2022 granting it the status of SCO dialogue partner, as was exclusively reported by OilPrice.com at the time. However, Saudi Arabia did nothing to encourage the release of the news at that point, unlike now – just after it resumed relations with Iran, in a deal brokered by China. The SCO is the world’s biggest regional political, economic and defence organisation both in terms of geographic scope and population. It covers 60 percent of the Eurasian continent (by far the biggest single landmass on Earth), 40 percent of the world’s population, and more than 20 percent of global GDP. It was formed in 2001 on the foundation of the ‘Shanghai Five’ that was set up in 1996 by China, Russia, and three states of the former USSR (Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan). Aside from its vast scale and scope, the SCO believes in the idea and practice of the ‘multi-polar world’, which China anticipates will be dominated by it by 2030. In this context, the end of December 2021/beginning of January 2022 saw meetings in Beijing between senior officials from the Chinese government and foreign ministers from Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Oman, Bahrain, plus the secretary-general of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC). At these meetings, the principal topics of conversation were to finally seal a China-GCC Free Trade Agreement and to forge “a deeper strategic cooperation in a region where U.S. dominance is showing signs of retreat”.This idea was the centrepiece of the declaration signed in 1997 between then-Russian President, Boris Yeltsin, and his then-China counterpart, Jiang Zemin. Veteran Russian Foreign Minister, Sergey Lavrov, has since stated that: “The Shanghai Cooperation Organisation is working to establish a rational and just world order and […] it provides us with a unique opportunity to take part in the process of forming a fundamentally new model of geopolitical integration”. Aside from these geopolitical redesigns, the SCO works to provide intra-organisation financing and banking networks, plus increased military cooperation, intelligence sharing and counterterrorism activities, among other things. The U.S. itself applied for ‘observer status’ of the SCO in the early 2000s but was rejected in 2005. This latest step by Saudi Arabia away from the U.S. and towards the China-Russia axis should come as no surprise to anyone who has been watching developments in the Kingdom since the rise of Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MbS) from around 2015. At that point, he was not Crown Prince (the heir designate position) – that role was held by Muhammad bin Nayef (MbN) – but rather Deputy Crown Prince with burning ambition to take the number one succession spot upon the death of King Salman. His stint as Defense Minister was disastrous, with the dramatic escalation of the war against the Houthis in Yemen – including indiscriminate bombing of civilian targets – roundly condemned by the West. This led the German intelligence service, the Bundesnachrichtendienst (BND), to leak an abridged internal-only assessment report of MbS to various trusted members of the press that stated: ‘Saudi Arabia [under MbS] has adopted an impulsive policy of intervention.’ It went on to describe MbS in terms of being a political gambler who was destabilising the Arab world through proxy wars in Yemen and Syria. In order to rebuild his reputation with a view to usurping MbN as Crown Prince, MbS came up with an idea that he thought would win over senior Saudis who supported his rival. MbS pitched the idea to the senior Saudis based on very specific benchmark targets. First, the flotation would be for 5% of the company. Second, this would raise at least USD100 billion, which would value the whole company at US$2 trillion. Third, it would be listed not just on the domestic Tadawul stock market but also on at least one of the world’s biggest and most prestigious stock markets – the New York Stock Exchange and the London Stock Exchange were the exchanges MbS had in mind. None of these targets was hit, of course, as the more information was made known about Saudi Aramco to international investors the more they regarded it as an omni-toxic liability, including financially and politically. At that point, China stepped in with an offer to save MbS’s face, an offer that he has apparently never forgotten. The offer was that China would buy the entire 5% stake for the required US$100 million, and it would be done in a private placement, meaning no possibly embarrassing details about anything surrounding the deal would ever be made public, including to those senior Saudis who opposed MbS.

Biden Has Limited Options to Respond to OPEC+’s Oil Cut - OPEC+’s surprise move to cut 1 million barrels a day of oil production is poised to raise US fuel prices just as President Joe Biden is expected to launch his re-election campaign. He has a limited range of options with which to respond. Biden may go for another release of oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. The emergency stockpile was created in the 1970s after the Arab oil embargo. It’s holding about 371 million of barrels, according to Energy Department data, around half the SPR’s capacity, largely due to a historic release of 180 million barrels last year to tame surging gasoline prices in the wake of the war in Ukraine. The administration has made refilling the SPR a priority, but it has been hampered by factors that include maintenance at two of the reserve’s four sites. Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm has said the government isn’t able to release oil from the cache and refill it at the same time, so an emergency sale would likely further delay any plans for replenishment. Still, there’s nothing to stop another sale, said Kevin Book, managing director of ClearView Energy Partners, a Washington consulting firm. “President Biden has taken ownership of gasoline prices in ways other president’s before him have not,” Book said. “If he continues that, it creates possibility for more interventions.” Don’t be surprised if there are more political attacks on the US energy sector, which has ignored repeated pleas from Biden over the past year to accelerate production increases, and received tongue-lashings for making record profits. For all the rhetoric, domestic oil output continues to grow slowly, with the industry reluctant to ramp up drilling and risk a repeat of previous boom-and-bust cycles. “Since the US can’t really force the hand of the OPEC+ members, the proverbial ‘whipping person’ will be the domestic oil and gas industry,” said Timm Schneider, an analyst who runs The Schneider Capital Group LLC. The White House hinted last year, in response to OPEC+’s unexpected decision to cut production by 2 million barrels a day, that it could back legislation that would allow the US to take the dramatic step of suing OPEC nations. Ultimately, the administration backed off from supporting the bill — the “No Oil Producing and Exporting Cartels Act,” or “NOPEC” — amid warnings of the effects it could have on diplomatic relations and the defense industry. Other levers the Biden administration has at its disposal include limiting the export of gasoline and diesel. The White House considered that option last year as a potential means to tame pump prices, which reached an all-time high in June, but it never pulled the trigger. Analysts said moving ahead with the curbs could backfire and actually lead to higher prices in some parts of the US.

Why OPEC's "Best Offense Is Defense", And The Biggest Surprise About The Output Cut Announcement - With markets still abuzz over Sunday's OPEC+ decision to cut oil output by over 1.6 million bpd, which was strategic (the political implications of Saudi Arabia bitchslapping the Biden admin just days after it effectively joined the China-Russia-India axes are unmissable even by inbred Deep State types) as well as tactical (i.e., brutalize the oil shorts, a task made easier since energy is now the second most shorted sector after banks, while CTAs are max bearish and will be forced to cover and chase oil higher from here), below we excerpt from two different perspectives on the OPEC decision, the first one from TS Lombard (it is their view that the output cut "this will deter short sellers and help oil prices settle higher – much like what December’s surprise BoJ tweak to Yield Curve Control did for the yen" but in the long run "sticky oil prices are more likely to weigh on growth than arrest the broad disinflation process already under way"), as well as a second one from JPMorgan's chief commodity strategist Natasha Kaneva who lays out what she thinks is the "most surprising part of the announcement." So without further ado, here is the first take courtesy of TS Lombard's Konstantinos Venetis who explains why OPEC's best offense is defense. Oil prices have jumped following the decision by a Saudi-led group of OPEC members to cut output by around one million bpd starting next month. This will add to the two million bpd reduction agreed by OPEC+ back in October, taking the total to around 3% of global supply.The cartel is trying to put a floor under crude prices against the backdrop of rising inventories and downside risks to demand as a US recession looms. This move is also meant to send a message to speculators: the bearish skew in futures positioning had become particularly pronounced recently, which goes some way to explaining today’s strong knee-jerk price response. There is also a political angle to the timing of this announcement, coming shortly after US officials effectively ruled out new crude purchases to replenish the Strategic Petroleum Reserve in 2023, underscoring the souring of US-Saudi relations.Given our expectations for a US recession and limited global spillovers from China’s reopening, our sense is that at this juncture sticky oil prices are more likely to weigh on growth than arrest the broad disinflation process already under way. For bonds, this means that spikes in yields on the back of renewed inflation concerns are likely to be short-lived. For equities, firmer oil prices will (if anything) weigh on already falling earnings expectations. And here is an excerpt from JPM's Natasha Kaneva laying out what is "the most surprising part of the announcement": A day before the OPEC+’s advisory (no policy-making) Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee was set to meet on April 3, Saudi Arabia and other members of the OPEC+ alliance announced a 1.1 mbd oil production cut. Saudi Arabia pledged a “voluntary” 500 kbd supply reduction, in coordination with Iraq, the UAE, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria and Oman (Table 1). The cuts will begin in May and last until the end of 2023. Fellow member Russia said the 500 kbd production cut it was implementing from March to June would extend until the end of 2023. Similar to OPEC’s 2 mbd cut last October, we view the current reduction in supply as a preemptive measure, assuring that surpluses that started accumulating in the global oil market since mid-2022 don’t extend into the second half of 2023 as the global economy slows following almost 400 bps of cumulative hikes since 2022. The most surprising part of the announcement is that it was not made sooner. Since last November our global oil supply-demand balance suggested a strong policy action was needed to keep global oil surpluses in check.

Oil price forecasts rise on Wall Street as OPEC cuts signal 'geopolitical posturing' - Wall Street is raising its forecasts on oil prices following a surprise OPEC+ announcement to cut production. The output reduction by some of the world's largest exporters, seen by some market watchers as 'geopolitical posturing', sent West Texas Intermediate (CL=F) and Brent (BZ=F) crude futures up more than 6%. Goldman Sachs Commodities Research analysts increased Brent forecasts by $5/bbl to $95/bbl (vs. 90 previously) for December 2023, and to $100 (vs. 97) for December 2024. “Today’s surprise cut is consistent with the new OPEC+ doctrine to act preemptively because they can without significant losses in market share,” wrote researchers led by Dean Struyven in a note to investors. Analysts at Capital Economics also raised their price target writing, “We have revised up our end-2023 Brent forecast to $90 per barrel ($85 previously). Nonetheless, this forecast does not rule out bouts of price weakness as advanced economies enter recession between now and then." The OPEC+ cuts consist of a voluntary reduction of 1.157 million barrels per day which will take effect in May. Additionally, Russia is extending its reduction of 500,000 barrels per day for the rest of the year. Western sanctions on Moscow amid the Ukraine war have diverted Russian energy exports away from Europe, towards countries like China and India. “While surprising, this cut reflects important economic and likely political considerations,” wrote Struyven at Goldman Sachs. On the political side, the move may be related to recent comments from United States Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm, indicating it would be “difficult” to refill the U.S. strategic petroleum reserve this year. Those statements contradict prior indications from the Biden Administration that it wants to refill the reserve when WTI was consistently at around $70. “Aside from the impact on the physical oil market, it is hard not to think that there is some geopolitical posturing embedded in these voluntary cuts. It demonstrates the group’s support for Russia and flies in the face of the Biden administration’s efforts to lower oil prices,” wrote analysts from Capital Economics.

Goldman sees elevated OPEC pricing power, $100 per barrel by April 2024 after supply cut | Hellenic Shipping News Worldwide - Goldman Sachs says crude oil production cuts by OPEC could result in a significantly larger deficit in the market, driving a rally in prices to $100 per barrel by April 2024, and raising the group’s pricing power. OPEC+, which groups the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries with Russia and other allies, agreed on Sunday to widen oil supply cuts to 3.66 million barrels per day (bpd), which helped push up prices above $86 per barrel. Goldman said it sees “elevated OPEC pricing power – the ability to raise prices without significantly hurting its demand – as the key economic driver”, and estimates that the production cut will raise OPEC+ revenues as the boost to prices more than offsets the drop in volumes. Brent crude futures were trading at $85.31 a barrel on Tuesday. Goldman also said it expects a nearly 90% implementation rate for the 1.66 million bpd production cut plan, reasoning that countries that announced an additional cut have a strong compliance track record, and had implemented nearly 90% of the October 2022 cut by January 2023. The bank further reiterated its view that the market will return to sustained deficits from June onward given rapid emerging market growth, falling Russia supply, and sluggish U.S. supply. Goldman on Monday had raised its price forecast for Brent for December 2023 by $5 to $95 a barrel. Barclays also said it sees a $5 upside to its $92 per barrel price target, while Jefferies noted Brent prices could still end the year at $96 per barrel.

Russia, Kazakhstan Extend Oil Cuts to Stabilize Market - On Sunday, some of the biggest oil-exporting countries declared an additional reduction of around 1.16 million barrels per day in oil production, aiming to stabilize a market that has been continuously declining since last June. As per the recent decision by several OPEC and non-OPEC oil-producing countries, known as OPEC+, two Caspian nations, Russia and Kazakhstan, have committed to lowering their oil production by a total of 578,000 barrels per day. Russia has agreed to extend its current 500,000 barrels per day oil production cut until the end of this year, while Kazakhstan has pledged to voluntarily reduce its oil output by 78,000 bpd.According to Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak, the current high volatility and unpredictability of the oil market can be attributed to a number of factors, including ongoing banking crises in the United States and Europe, the unpredictability of the global economy, and short-sighted decisions in energy policy. “Predictability on the global oil market is a key element of energy security,” TASS quoted Novak as saying on Sunday.In February, Moscow had announced these production cuts unilaterally in response to the introduction of price caps by the West.Meanwhile, the Kazakh Energy Ministry has announced that the country’s decision to voluntarily reduce oil production is a precautionary step, in addition to the production cut agreed upon during the 33rd OPEC and non-OPEC Ministerial Meeting held on October 5, 2022.In addition to Russia and Kazakhstan, six other countries have also announced voluntary production cuts. These nations include Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Iraq, Kuwait, Oman, and Algeria. Saudi Arabia, for instance, has committed to reducing its production by 500,000 barrels per day until the end of this year. Similarly, the United Arab Emirates, Iraq, and Kuwait have agreed to reduce their production by 144,000 barrels per day, 211,000 barrels per day, and 128,000 barrels per day, respectively. Oman and Algeria have also decided to cut their production by 40,000 barrels per day and 48,000 barrels per day, respectively. The recent voluntary production cuts, which are set to take effect from May, were unexpected and have been declared in addition to the output cuts that were already agreed upon in October. During the October meeting, OPEC+ had agreed to impose output cuts of two million barrels per day from November onwards, which had caused concerns in the United States as tighter supply typically leads to an increase in oil prices.

The Market Weighed the OPEC+ Production Cut Against Weak Economic Data The oil market on Tuesday ended the session mostly sideway as the market weighed the OPEC+ production cut against weak economic data. In overnight trading, the market extended its previous gains following the surprising decision by OPEC+ to cut production by 1.66 million bpd from May until the end of 2023, bringing the total volume of cuts by OPEC+ to 3.66 million bpd, including a 2 million bpd cut agreed to last October. The market traded sideways before it breached its previous high as it posted a high of $81.81 early in the session. However, the market erased some of its gains amid some weak economic data. The Commerce Department reported that U.S. manufacturing activity fell in March to the lowest level in nearly three years as new orders fell. The market sold off to a low of $79.61 by mid-day. The oil market later retraced some of its losses and settled in a sideways trading range ahead of the close. The May WTI contract ended the session up 29 cents at $80.71 and the June Brent contract settled up 1 cent at $84.94. Meanwhile, the product markets ended the session mixed, with the heating oil market settling up 41 points at $2.6667 and the RB market settling down 2.04 cents at $2.7371.Goldman Sachs says crude oil production cuts by OPEC could result in a significantly larger deficit in the market, driving a rally in prices to $100/barrel by April 2024, and raising the group's pricing power. Goldman said it sees "elevated OPEC pricing power, the ability to raise prices without significantly hurting its demand, as the key economic driver", and estimates that the production cut will raise OPEC+ revenues as the increase to prices more than offsets the drop in volumes. Goldman also said it expects a nearly 90% implementation rate for the 1.16 million bpd production cut plan, reasoning that countries that announced an additional cut have a strong compliance track record, and had implemented nearly 90% of the October 2022 cut by January 2023. The bank further reiterated its view that the market will return to sustained deficits from June onward given rapid emerging market growth, falling Russia supply, and sluggish U.S. supply. On Monday, Goldman Sachs raised its price forecast for Brent for December 2023 by $5 to $95/barrel. Separately, Barclays said it sees a $5 upside to its $92/barrel price target, while Jefferies noted Brent prices could still end the year at $96/barrel. Fitch Ratings said OPEC+ output cuts will support short-term prices and may push the market into a deficit. It assumes Brent prices will average $85/barrel in 2023. Fitch said the OPEC+ output cuts increases the chances that the market could switch into a deficit in the second half of 2023 particularly due to recovering consumption in China.S&P Global is estimating the EIA could be under reporting crude inventories by between 100,000 b/d and 300,000 b/d largely because of the field condensate that is often collected in gas pipelines and introduced into the crude stream as light hydrocarbons.According to Refinitiv tracking, global seaborne diesel export to Europe this week are at around 2.84 million tons. However, this could fall as it includes about 1.31 million tons of Russian barrels. Diesel exports for Europe scheduled for April so far are estimated at 4.2 million tons with no sign of abatement in shipments from Russia. This compares with about 6.5 million tons in March.

U.S. oil prices settle at their highest since January in wake of surprise OPEC+ production cuts - Oil futures climbed on Tuesday, with U.S. prices settling at their highest since January. The move marked an extension of a 6% rally a day earlier, which was driven by a surprise Sunday decision by Saudi Arabia and several of its OPEC+ allies to collectively cut crude production by more than a million barrels a day. Brent and WTI both soared more than 6% on Monday after Saudi Arabia and other OPEC+ members announced Sunday that they would make production cuts totaling around 1.16 million barrels a day beginning in May, while Russia said it would extend a March cut of 500,000 barrels a day through the end of the year. OPEC+ is made up of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, including Russia. "The OPEC+ cut to oil output was no surprise fundamentally, but the way OPEC+ negotiated and announced the cut, and the timing of it, was unexpected; a harbinger of surprises to come," "Our base case for this year had already assumed OPEC+ would first cut production this May," and then increase output later in its quest for $80-plus a barrel oil, adding that a potential production increase would depend on the extent of oil demand growth this year, particularly in China. Bahree also said there is "no reason to any longer assume that scheduled meetings of OPEC or OPEC+, in-person or virtual, are the only occasions for group decision-making." A "subset, or subsets of OPEC or OPEC+ countries can come together to voluntarily adjust production within the overall framework of a formal agreement and output targets." The next full OPEC+ ministerial meeting is scheduled for June 4. Still, some analysts warned that the OPEC+ decision could actually lead to lower oil prices. "The cuts come with serious implications, particularly when it comes to inflation," . Reducing the output of oil on the global market "creates an imbalance between supply and demand that could fuel inflation." That, in turn, "could cause demand destruction through higher prices," she said. So while there may be a short-term price spike, the longer-term impact of the production cuts is "bearish for oil prices." For now, the oil market remains "flush" with inventories, However, the announced output cuts will "turn the market to a deficit in the second half." Actual compliance with the cuts is a "another story altogether," he said. "Whereas Saudi Arabia, UAE and Kuwait are steadfast in their compliance, the rest of the pack that includes Iraq, Kazakhstan and Algeria have iffy track record and are unlikely to comply voluntarily." Meanwhile, Iraq's agreement to resume Kurdistan production "makes it highly unlikely that it will forego its oil revenue, despite the promises," said Raj. Looking ahead, weekly data from the Energy Information Administration on U.S. petroleum supplies will be released Wednesday. On average, analysts polled by S&P Global Commodity Insights expect to see an inventory declines of 7.5 million barrels for domestic crude, 1.3 million barrels for gasoline, and 140,000 barrels for distillates.

Oil Prices Rise As Crude And Gasoline Inventories Fall - Crude oil inventories in the United States fell by big numbers again this week, shedding 4.346 million barrels, the American Petroleum Institute (API) data showed on Tueday, with analysts expecting a smaller 1.8 million barrel draw. The total number of barrels of crude oil gained so far this year is still more than 49 million barrels. This week, SPR inventory dropped for the first time in 12 weeks, losing 400,000 barrels to reach 371.2 million barrels—the lowest amount of crude oil in the SPR since December 1983. U.S. crude oil production fell to 12.2 million bpd for week ending March 24. U.S. production is now 900,000 bpd lower than the peak production seen in March 2020, but 500,000 bpd higher than this time last year. WTI oil prices traded up on Tuesday in the run-up to the data release, still supported by OPEC+’s surprise production cut that will start in May. Brent crude was trading down slightly on the day, although up on the week. By 4:25 p.m. EST, WTI was trading up $0.10 (+0.12%) on the day to $80.52 per barrel, a gain of about $7 per barrel on the week. Brent crude was trading down $0.09 (-0.11%) on the day at $84.84—up roughly $6 per barrel from this same time last week. WTI was trading at $80.57 shortly after the data release. Gasoline inventories fell by 3.970 million barrels after falling in the week prior by 5.891 million barrels. Distillate inventories fell by 3.693 million barrels after increasing by 548,000 barrels in the week prior. Inventories at Cushing, Oklahoma, decreased by 1.035 million barrels—after falling 2.388 million barrels last week.

Oil edges up as OPEC cuts, U.S. inventories brighten outlook - Oil prices rose in early Asian trade on Wednesday on anticipated U.S. crude inventory declines and OPEC+'s latest output cut targets. Brent crude futures gained 38 cents to $85.32 a barrel at 0021 GMT. West Texas Intermediate U.S. crude was up 33 cents to $81.04 a barrel. Helping boost oil prices was an industry report showing that U.S. crude stocks fell by about 4.3 million barrels in the week ended March 31, according to market sources citing American Petroleum Institute figures on Tuesday. In Asia, Japan's service sector grew in March at the fastest rate in more than nine years. Gasoline inventories fell by about 4 million barrels, while distillate stocks fell by about 3.7 million barrels, according to the sources, who spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorised to speak to the media. The latest targets set by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and allies including Russia, a group known as OPEC+, also helped oil prices. The OPEC+ plan would bring the total volume of cuts by the group to 3.66 million bpd, including a 2 million-barrel cut last October, equal to about 3.7% of global demand. Keeping oil prices from moving higher were concerns about demand, with U.S. job openings in February falling to the lowest level in nearly two years and U.S. manufacturing activity in March slumping. Weak manufacturing activity in China last month also added to crude oil demand concerns.

Oil Softens Despite API Reporting Tumbling US Inventories -- Oil futures nearest delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange and Brent crude traded on the Intercontinental Exchange held lower in pre-inventory trade Wednesday despite American Petroleum Institute data showing U.S. crude oil stockpiles fell by a larger-than-expected margin last week, accompanied with a steep drawdown in petroleum product inventories in what could be a sign of a seasonal rebound in fuel demand. U.S. crude inventories slumped by 4.3 million barrels (bbl) in the final week of March, according to the API data released late Tuesday, marking the second weekly decline for U.S. oil inventories. Analysts forecast a more modest decline of 1.5 million bbl. Additionally, gasoline stockpiles tumbled 3.970 million bbl week-over-week, more than twice the calls for a 1.2-million-bbl drawdown. API data also showed distillate inventory toppled 3.693 million bbl, far surpassing an expected decline of 500,000 bbl. Should the EIA report confirm the steep drawdowns, this could be a sign of strengthening demand ahead of the Spring-Summer driving season. U.S. gasoline demand is already on par with 2022 levels but still 4.3% below 2019 levels for the seasonal period. Inventory drawdowns in the U.S. came just as the group of OPEC+ producers decided to slash oil output by 1.66 million barrels per day (bpd) beginning next month and keep cuts through the end of the year. The output cuts add to a reduction of 2 million bpd agreed by the group in October. Taken together, the output cuts account for about 3% of global oil production taken off the market in just seven months. In a note released this week, Fitch Ratings said the cuts should support prices in the short term, leading to an increased likelihood that the market could switch into deficit in 2H23. "We believe that the market was in a moderate surplus in 1Q23 with OECD commercial inventories increasing by 32 million tons in January and a further 10 million tons in February. The decision on production cuts increases the likelihood of the market switching into deficit this year as demand will increase by 2MMbpd in 2023, mostly because of China reopening, which will account for about half of demand growth," said Fitch Ratings. In financial markets, the U.S. Dollar Index bounced higher from a two-month low settlement of 101.145, gaining 0.10% against the basket of foreign currencies after federal data showed U.S. job openings fell below 10 million in February -- the lowest level in over two years. Further details from the JOLTS report showed available positions totaling 9.93 million, a drop of 632,000 from January's downwardly revised number. Although the survey has been widely criticized over its methodology and data accuracy, it still could offer some clues on the overall direction in the labor market. For instance, February's openings were below a record 12 million reached last March, according to revised 2022 data, but still well above 7 million openings in February 2020 ahead of the pandemic. Near 7:30 a.m. EDT, West Texas Intermediate futures for May delivery traded little changed near $80.71 bbl, and international benchmark Brent softened to $84.92 bbl. NYMEX May RBOB futures advanced $0.0166 to $2.7537 gallon, while May ULSD futures gained to $2.6706 gallon.

WTI Rebounds After Across-The-Board Inventory Draws -Oil prices are dropping this morning after the weak ISM Services print, erasing the overnight gains following API's report of inventory draws across all cohorts. However, prices remain up notably on the week, holding the post-OPEC+ production-cut surprise gains.Additionally, a weaker dollar has helped to boost the allure of commodities priced in the US currency. DOE

• Crude -3.739mm (-7.5mm exp)
• Cushing -970k
• Gasoline -4.119mm (-1.3mm exp)
• Distillates -3.632mm (-140k exp) - biggest draw since Oct

The official EIA data confirmed API's overnight with draws across the board. Distillates saw biggest drop in stocks since Oct '22. Interesting that as soon as the so-called "adjustment factor" collapses, we get draws galore?!Even more interesting, at a time when the Biden admin is supposed to be refilling the SPR, they actually drained it (admittedly by a little) for the first time since Jan 6th. No wonder the Saudis were pissed...Cushing saw stocks decline for the 5th straight month... US crude production was flat at 12.2mm b/d, even as rig counts continues to trend lower...

The Market Weighed Economic Concerns Against Plans by OPEC+ Producers to Cut Their Output --The oil market posted an inside trading day as it failed to breach its previous trading range. The market weighed economic concerns against plans by OPEC+ producers to cut their output. The market traded towards its previous high in overnight trading ahead of the expected draws in oil stocks. However, the market failed to test its previous high and it held resistance at $81.24. The market erased any of its gains and sold off to a low of $80.62 as data showing slowing economic conditions weighed on the market. U.S. job openings in February fell the lowest level in nearly two years, suggesting that the labor market was cooling. The market traded off its low and retraced some of its losses but still remained in negative territory, despite the EIA report showing draws across the board. The EIA reported a larger than expected draw in crude stocks of 3.7 million barrels on the week and distillate and gasoline stocks also fell by 3.6 million barrels and 4.1 million barrels, respectively. The May WTI contract later traded in a sideways trading pattern during the remainder of the session and settled down 10 cents at $80.61. Meanwhile, the May Brent contract settled up 5 cents at $84.99. The product markets ended in positive territory amid the draws reported in stocks, with the heating oil market settling up 6.43 cents at $2.7310 and the RB market settling up 8.3 cents at $2.8201. The EIA reported that U.S. crude oil stocks in the SPR fell by 400,000 barrels to 371.2 million barrels, the lowest level since November 1983, in the week ending March 31st.S&P Global Commodities at Sea estimated crude oil exports from the U.S. Gulf Coast in March averaged 1.707 million b/d, up some 4% from February levels.S&P Global is forecasting global oil demand will grow by 2.3 million b/d in 2023, driven by China, despite concerns over feared slowdowns in the U.S. and Europe. They see the cuts by OPEC+ will tighten balances by roughly 25 million barrels each month it is in effect. They see this reducing the stock peak by 50 million barrels and see stocks declining by an additional 75 million barrels by the end of September.IIR Energy said U.S. oil refiners are expected to shut in about 1.25 million bpd of capacity in the week ending April 7th, decreasing available refining capacity by 67,000 bpd. Offline capacity is expected to fall to nearly 1.2 million bpd in the week ending April 14th.U.S. private employers hired far fewer workers than expected in March, suggesting that the labor market was cooling. The ADP National Employment report showed that private employment increased by 145,000 jobs last month. Data for February was revised higher to show 261,000 jobs added instead of 242,000 as previously reported. Cleveland Fed Bank President, Loretta Mester, said it is too early to know if the Federal Reserve will need to raise its benchmark overnight interest rate at its next policy meeting in early May.

Oil’s biggest rally of the year stalls on demand concerns - Oil’s biggest rally this year paused as U.S. stockpile draws failed to quell concerns about demand in an uncertain economy. West Texas Intermediate stuck close to US$80 a barrel, trading in overbought territory for a third day on the nine-day relative strength index. Brent edged higher at the end of the session after Saudi Arabia hiked its official selling price for oil to Asian customers for the third month in a row, which is considered a vote of confidence in demand. U.S. crude stockpiles fell 3.7 million barrels last week, which was less than traders expected, while other economic data showed softer business activity last month. “The rally in crude is likely to be contained in the face of soft economic readings,” said Rebecca Babin, a senior energy trader at CIBC Private Wealth. Brent, though, is likely to outperform in the short term as Asian demand remains robust and OPEC cuts more directly impact the global benchmark, she added. Crude rallied in the first two days of the week after the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies blindsided the market with a surprise supply cut. The cartel’s move, apparently aimed at investors betting against gains, reinvigorated the debate among leading banks about whether crude can rally back to $100 a barrel. Oil has risen by more than 20 per cent since its lows in March, when a banking crisis harmed appetite for risk assets. Before the lift from the OPEC+ cut, the market was buoyed by expectations for a rebound in Chinese demand after the end of its COVID Zero policy. A weaker dollar has helped to boost the allure of commodities priced in the US currency. WTI for May delivery fell 10 cents to settle at $80.61 a barrel in New York. Brent for June settlement increased 5 cents to settle at $84.99 a barrel.

Oil falls as weak US economic data stokes recession fears - Oil fell on Thursday as weak U.S. economic data raised concerns over a potential global recession and demand reduction, but benchmark prices were headed for a weekly advance after OPEC+ announced further output cuts and U.S. oil stocks dropped.Brent crude futures fell 41 cents, or 0.5%, to $84.58 a barrel by 0616 GMT. West Texas Intermediate U.S. crude dipped 45 cents, or 0.6%, to $80.16 a barrel. Brent and WTI have both gained nearly 6% so far this week, headed towards three straight weeks of increase after the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies including Russia, a grouping known as OPEC+, pledged voluntary production cuts. “Crude oil’s rally paused as it battled the headwinds created by the weak economic data. This offset more positive fundamentals,” ANZ Research said in a note. The U.S. services sector slowed more than expected in March as demand cooled, while a measure of prices paid by services businesses fell to the lowest in nearly three years, giving the Federal Reserve a boost in the fight against inflation. New Zealand’s central bank raised interest rates more than expected on Wednesday, and India is likely to be the next in line to step up its benchmark rates. Meanwhile, U.S. job openings in February dropped to their lowest in nearly two years, suggesting the labor market was cooling. The slew of soft economic data soured market sentiment, stoking fears of a recession and prompting investors to adopt risk aversion strategies. The U.S. dollar index strengthened on Thursday, rebounding from a recent two-month-low. A stronger greenback could dent oil demand as crude becomes more expensive for holders of other currencies. “A slowdown in the U.S. economic outlook is weighing on the upside on U.S. oil prices, however we continue to expect a further uptick in oil prices to the end of the quarter,” Baden Moore and Adam Skelton, analysts from National Australia Bank, wrote in a note. Underpinning the market, Saudi Arabia, the world’s top oil exporter, raised prices for its flagship crude for Asian buyers for a third straight month. “This points to further strength in demand in the region,” ANZ Research said. U.S. crude inventories fell 3.7 million barrels last week, about 1.5 million barrels more than forecast, government data showed. Gasoline and distillate stocks also fell more than expected, drawing down by 4.1 million barrels and 3.6 million barrels, respectively.

Oil steady, notches 3rd weekly gain after shock OPEC+ cuts - Oil prices were little changed on Thursday but posted a third weekly gain as markets weighed further production cuts targeted by OPEC+ and falling U.S. oil inventories against fears about the global economic outlook. Brent crude settled up 13 cents, or 0.2 per cent, at $85.12 a barrel. West Texas Intermediate U.S. crude closed 9 cents, or 0.1 per cent, higher at $80.70. There will be no trading on the Good Friday holiday. Both benchmarks jumped more than 6 per cent this week after OPEC+, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and allies including Russia, surprised the market on Sunday with a pledge of production cuts. Hedge funds have bought crude all week, moving from the sidelines back into "risk on" mode, said Dennis Kissler, senior vice president of trading at BOK Financial. Prices drew support from a steeper-than-expected drop and a second consecutive weekly drawdown in U.S. crude inventories last week. Gasoline and distillate inventories also declined, hinting at rising demand. U.S. energy firms this week also cut the number of oil rigs for a second week in a row. The rig count, an early indicator of future output, dropped two to 590 this week, Baker Hughes data showed. Limiting gains, however, U.S. labor market data pointed to slowing economic growth, and there was also slower-than-expected growth in the U.S. services sector. "Demand destruction as function of the threat of recession is greater than the cut by OPEC+," said Robert Yawger, said director of energy futures at Mizuho Securities. Buyers of put options that hedge downside risk were more active than buyers of call options, which bets on rising prices, implying traders were worried prices could fall, Yawger added. "The oil market's bullish momentum may have paused, but upside potential remains given the tightening supply backdrop," said Stephen Brennock of oil broker PVM.

Oil has 3rd weekly gain, but price stuck at ‘OPEC-cut’ highs -- One of the craftiest moves in recent times to boost the oil market should result in a weekly gain at least in crude — which is exactly what OPEC+ got. But nothing more. Crude prices did not advance beyond Brent’s initial rally to $86.44 per barrel this week and WTI’s surge to $81.81, which came on the back of the announcement that the world’s largest oil producers will collude to cut a further 1.7 million barrels from daily output after an earlier decision in November to reduce 2.0M barrels per day. New York-traded West Texas Intermediate, or WTI, settled Thursday at $80.70 per barrel, up 9 cents, or 0.1%, from the previous session. For the week, the U.S. crude benchmark rose 6.6%, extending the back-to-back gain of 9.3% and 3.4% in two prior weeks. Just before the three-week stretch, WTI lost 13% in just one week.Brent settled at $85.12, up 13 cents, or 0.2%. The global crude benchmark finished the week up 6.7%, after consecutive gains of 6.4% and 2.8% in two prior weeks. Before that, Brent lost 12% in one week.The inability of crude prices to go any higher despite a bullish weekly report on U.S. supply-demand issued Wednesday was telling to some of the larger economic worries in the market. The latest output reduction by OPEC+ — which groups the 13-member Saudi-led Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries with 10 independent oil producers steered by Russia — is “substantial” as the combined cut from November removes on paper some 3.7M barrels daily that are equivalent to 3% of world supply, Erlam wrote. But he also stressed that it was a “preemptive” cut — using the oil producing alliance’s own language — that he said “left traders questioning whether this was just a price issue or a belief that the global economy is heading for a difficult period.” U.S. jobless claims jumped their most in 17 weeks, according to data on Thursday that emitted more recession signals even as it indicated relief for the Federal Reserve which needs employment and wage growth to cool in order to curb the worst inflation in four decades. For nine weeks in a row, claims have topped 200,000. While it indicated that more Americans were getting laid off than before, the Labor Department said changes in its claims reporting methodology had also probably led to a spike in the data. Prior to the jobless numbers, company hirings rose by just 145,000 last month versus the February growth of 261,000, private payrolls processor ADP said. That was even below the 200,000 growth forecast on the average by economists polled by U.S. media. The private hiring data came on the heels of another report on U.S. job openings, which showed the smallest growth in almost two years. Job openings slipped to 9.9M in February, growing at their slowest pace since May 2021, the Labor Department said in that report released Tuesday.The two reports made print before Friday’s scheduled release of the all-important labor update for the United States: the non-farm payrolls, or NFP, report. “There have been some bullish calls on oil prices but it’s worth remembering that there’s a reason oil prices were struggling to fully recover the losses in the aftermath of the banking turmoil. Tighter credit conditions mean a slower economy, even recession, and lower demand. The extent of that at this point isn’t clear though and only when it is can we properly judge what the price impact of the cuts is.”

Saudi Arabia Makes Its Eurasian Shift -Saudi Arabia's recent reconciliations with Iran and Syria under Chinese-Russian guidance is perceived as a step toward reducing Riyadh's dependence on the US, while also advancing Beijing and Moscow's political and economic influence in West Asia. On 6 March, 2023, Iranian and Saudi officials held a meeting in Beijing where they agreed to restore bilateral relations. The agreement was significant not only for the mutual de-escalation of tensions in West Asia, but also for Saudi Arabia’s growing importance in the process of Eurasian integration led by China and Russia. By welcoming Chinese mediation, the kingdom has positioned itself as an independent actor capable of opening doors for Beijing and Moscow in a region where they have traditionally been overshadowed by a great power rival, the US. This move boosts Saudi Arabia’s importance in the geopolitical landscape and strengthens its ties with Beijing and Moscow. For much of its history, Saudi Arabia was a staunch ally of the US in the Persian Gulf region. However, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s (MbS) military quagmire in Yemen – among other things – damaged Washington’s perception of the kingdom as a stable and reliable outpost in the region. The feeling was mutual and forced MbS to seek assistance from other nations to help lower tensions on Saudi frontiers. Between 2021 and 2022, Riyadh engaged in several rounds of an Iraq-hosted dialogue with Iran to negotiate assistance from Tehran in preventing its allies in Yemen and Iraq from attacking Saudi territory. What is particularly noteworthy to China and Russia is that MbS did not use this diplomacy as a means to restore the US’ traditional centrality in the kingdom’s regional and security policies. Instead, he made a point of cooperation with Beijing and Moscow while simultaneously snubbing Washington.

Report: Saudis and Houthis Might Renew Ceasefire Soon - Warring parties in Yemen could soon sign a deal to renew a ceasefire that would last until the end of 2023, The New Arab reported Thursday.A ceasefire that took effect in April 2022 expired last October. While there has been an uptick in fighting on the ground, there have still been no Saudi airstrikes in Yemen since March 2022 and no Houthi missile and drone attacks inside Saudi Arabia.Sources told The New Arab’s Arabic language sister site that the hopes for a new truce come after Saudi Defense Minister Khalid bin Salman met with members of the presidential council that represents the Saudi-backed government in Yemen.A deal to extend the ceasefire could include the Saudis allowing more flights from the Sanaa airport, the resumption of oil exports, and the opening of roads the Houthis have blocked in Taiz. But the sources said some Houthi demands might not be fulfilled.The Houthis have long called for a complete lifting of the blockade on Yemen as a precondition for a settlement. One of their main demands now is for government employees living in Houthi-controlled areas to be paid their salaries using revenue from Yemeni oil and gas sales.The UN’s special envoy for Yemen, Hans Grundberg, said last month that he saw renewed momentum for a peace deal in Yemen following the Iran-Saudi normalization deal. While Iran isn’t nearly as involved in the Yemen war as the Saudis are, the renewed engagement between Tehran and Riyadh is expected to bring more stability to the region. Since the rapprochement with Iran, the Saudis have also taken steps toward normalizing with Syria. March 25 marked the eighth anniversary of the US-backed Saudi-led intervention in Yemen. Since then, at least 377,000 people have been killed in the war. More than half died due to starvation and disease that was caused by the blockade and the coalition’s brutal bombing campaign.

Saudi Arabia to Invite Syria’s Assad to Arab League Summit - Saudi Arabia is planning to invite Syrian President Bashar al-Assad to an Arab League summit Riyadh is hosting in May, Reuters reported Sunday, citing three people familiar with the plan.The move would be a significant step in the normalization of Syria’s relations with regional countries. Damascus was suspended from the Arab League in 2011, and many of the bloc’s members supported the failed regime change effort against Assad, including Saudi Arabia.The news comes after Syria’s foreign minister visited Egypt for the first time in over a decade. An Egyptian security source told Reuters that the purpose of the visit was to work toward Syria rejoining the Arab League, which is based in Cairo, through Saud and Egyptian mediation.Syria and Saudi Arabia have been holding talks on reestablishing ties andare expected soon to resume formal diplomatic relations, which have also been suspended since 2011.The US is opposed to regional countries normalizing with Syria as it prefers to keep the country isolated and under crippling economic sanctions. Washington also occupies about one-third of Syria’s territory, where most of the country’s oil and wheat resources are located.Much of the recent engagement between regional countries and Syria came after a devastating earthquake killed thousands in northwest Syria. Following the quake, the State Department said it opposed other countries upgrading ties with Assad even if it was part of an effort to help with earthquake relief.

Moscow Hosts Meeting Aimed at Syria-Turkey Normalization - The deputy foreign ministers of Syria, Turkey, Iran, and Russia wrapped up two days of talks in Moscow on Tuesday that were aimed at working toward a normalization deal between Ankara and Damascus.There’s no sign a breakthrough was made, but a follow-up meeting at the foreign minister level is expected to happen soon. A Turkish Foreign Ministry source told Russia’s TASS news agency that the four sides agreed to continue consultations and are planning to hold a foreign ministers meeting.Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said that Moscow had proposed dates for the meeting of the top diplomats from the four countries. The talks this week built on a meeting between Syria and Turkey’s defense ministers hosted by Russia in December 2022, marking the first time the two countries held talks at that level since 2011.Damascus has made clear that any normalization deal with Ankara hinges on a Turkish withdrawal from the territory it occupies in northern Syria. A rapprochement between Syria and Turkey would be a major breakthrough as Ankara supported the failed regime change effort against Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and still backs anti-government fighters on the ground.The Syria-Turkey talks come as other regional countries are working toward normalizing with the Assad government, including Saudi Arabia. Riyadh is expected to invite Assad to attend an Arab League Summit it’s hosting in May. Syria was kicked out of the Arab League in 2011.The US opposes regional countries normalizing with Assad as it prefers to keep Syria isolated and under crippling economic sanctions. The US also occupies a significant portion of eastern Syria, where most of the country’s oil and wheat resources are located.

CENTCOM Says US Strike Killed ISIS Leader in Syria -US Central Command (CENTCOM) has said its forces launched a “unilateral strike” in Syria on Monday and claimed it killed a senior ISIS leader.CENTCOM said the man’s name was Khalid Aydd Ahmad al-Jabouri and claimed he was responsible for planning terrorist attacks in Europe and Turkey. The command said no civilians were harmed in the strike, but the Pentagon is notorious for undercounting civilian casualties.According to the UK-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, the US attack was a drone strike and hit a target in the northwestern Syrian province of Idlib, which is mainly controlled by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, an al-Qaeda-linked group.Also on Tuesday, CENTCOM released a summary of its operations against ISIS in Iraq and Syria in March. According to the command, it was involved in nine “partnered operations” in Syria that killed a total of two ISIS “operatives” and detained 11 more. While the US says it’s in Syria to fight ISIS, the presence is also part of the economic campaign against Damascus. By backing the Kurdish-led SDF, the US controls a sizeable portion of eastern Syria and controls most of the country’s oil fields. Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Mark Milley recently visited Syria and said fighting ISIS was worth the risk of staying in the country. But Damascus and its allies are all sworn enemies of ISIS and would continue to fight against the terror group if the US withdraws.

Two Civilians Killed in Latest Israeli Airstrikes in Syria The strikes targeted Damascus, marking the fourth Israeli airstrikes in the country within one week - Israel continued its relentless bombing campaign in Syria early Tuesday morning, launching airstrikes targeting the southern suburbs of Damascus and killing two civilians, Syria’s SANA news agency reported.The pro-opposition UK-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights also reported that two civilians were killed in the Israeli bombardment. The SOHR described the target that was hit as a “glass laboratory” and said strikes also targeted the Damascus International Airport, and “Iranian positions.”SANA said some of the missiles Israel fired were intercepted by Syrian air defenses. The report said the strikes were launched at 00:15 local time in Syria.The strikes come after Israel targeted the central province of Homs on Sunday, wounding at least five Syrian soldiers. On Friday, Israeli airstrikes hit Damascus and killed two members of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).In March, Israel twice bombed Syria’s Aleppo airport, putting it temporarily out of service. Aleppo was devastated by the earthquake that hit Syria and Turkey on February 6, and the Israeli airstrikes cut off aid flights into the city.The Israeli escalation in Syria comes as Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is facing a political crisis at home over his planned judicial overhaul. Due to the pressure, Netanyahu paused the overhaul, but massive protests in Israel continue.

Israeli forces storm Jerusalem's Al-Aqsa mosque, arresting hundreds of Palestinian worshipers --Violence broke out at the Al-Aqsa Mosque in Jerusalem's Old City overnight after Israeli police stormed the sensitive compound, fueling fear that already-high tension in the heart of the Middle East could erupt again into conflict during a sensitive holiday season.Al-Aqsa is one of the holiest sites in Islam and shares a hilltop with the Temple Mount, the holiest site for Jews. Palestinians consider the site a national symbol, and the storming of Al-Aqsa Mosque by Israeli security forces was a major catalyst for 11 days of violent clashes in 2021.In response to the raid, a series of rockets were fired from the Gaza Strip, which is run by the Palestinian militant group Hamas. Israel then said it had conducted airstrikes targeting Hamas weapons storage and manufacturing sites.Since the holy Muslim month of Ramadan began on March 22, some Palestinian worshippers have been trying to stay overnight inside Al-Aqsa, which is typically permitted only during the final 10 days of the festive period, The Associated Press reported. Israeli police have entered the site daily to evict the worshippers, the AP said.After tens of thousands of people attended prayers at Al-Aqsa Tuesday evening, Israeli officials said they were forced to enter the compound when hundreds of Palestinian "agitators" barricaded themselves inside the mosque armed with fireworks and stones. Videos posted online appeared to show police storming the compound, beating Palestinians with batons and rifle butts and restraining dozens of worshipers, and Palestinians taking aim at police with fireworks. Police said rocks had also been thrown at the officers."The youths were afraid and started closing the doors," Talab Abu Eisha, who was there at the time of the raid, told the AP. "It was an unprecedented scene of violence in terms of police brutality."

Global outrage as Israel launches yet another Ramadan attack on worshippers at Al Aqsa Mosque - Israeli police attacked and arrested Palestinian worshippers in a violent dawn raid on the Al-Aqsa Mosque compound in occupied East Jerusalem, prompting global outrage over Israel’s repeated targeting of Muslims during Ramadan. According to Palestinian officials, at least 400 Palestinians were detained by Israel on Wednesday and are being held at a police station in Atarot in occupied East Jerusalem. Palestinian eyewitnesses reported that Israeli forces beat worshippers with batons and rifles and used excessive force, including tear gas and stun grenades, causing widespread suffocation. Twelve injuries, including three hospital transfers, were reported by the Palestinian Red Crescent. In a statement, it added that Israeli forces had stopped its medical staff from getting to Al-Aqsa. The raids continued until Wednesday morning, when Israeli forces were once more seen violently assaulting Palestinians and preventing them from praying inside the mosque compound, pushing them out before allowing in Israelis under police protection. In the occupied West Bank and East Jerusalem, tension has already been high for months. As two significant religious holidays, the Jewish Passover and the Muslim Ramadan, coincide, there are fears that acts of violence will increase. Palestinian Authority Prime Minister Mohammad Shtayyeh said in a statement: “What happened in Jerusalem is a major crime against the worshippers. Prayer in Al-Aqsa Mosque is not with the permission of the [Israeli] occupation, but rather it is our right. “Al-Aqsa is for the Palestinians and for all Arabs and Muslims, and the raiding of it is a spark of revolution against the occupation,” he added.Social media users from around the world took to different platforms to amplify Palestinian voices and share the reality on the ground as Palestinians shared photos and footage of the brutal attacks.“If any other State’s army raided a holy site and brutally assaulted hundreds of worshippers inside it, that attack would cause global outrage. But because it is the army of the self-proclaimed Jewish State,” tweeted renown Palestinian writer Mohammed Elkurd.“Strongly condemn this attack on worshippers in Al Aqsa mosque once again by Israeli forces esp during Holy month of Ramazan. It is OIC’s responsibility to inform UNSC & int community that such barbaric acts cause immense hurt to Muslims across the world,” former Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan said in a tweet.“Worshippers in Aqsa mosque right now are being brutally and savagely attacked by armed Israeli forces. Some people are even afraid to film because that means more beatings. Scenes coming out are horrifying,” said Mariam Barghouti in a tweet.

Qatar condemns brutal Israeli attack on Palestinian worshippers at Al Aqsa - Doha News | Qatar - Qatar has issued a statement to condemn an Israeli raid into Al Aqsa and that led to a brutal attack on worshippers on Tuesday, slamming the assaults as another violation of international law. In a statement on Wednesday, Qatar’s foreign ministry took aim at the storming and vandalism of the holy site as well as the assault on worshippers and preventing ambulances from attending to the injured. “The Ministry of Foreign Affairs considers these brutal criminal practices a serious escalation and a blatant infringement of the holy places, an extension of the policy of Judaising Jerusalem, a violation of international law and resolutions of international legitimacy,” the statement added. The statement also slammed the attacks as “a provocation to the feelings of more than two billion Muslims in the world, especially in the blessed month of Ramadan.” It also highlighted the occupation of Jerusalem, as per international law. “Therefore the responsibility for caring for the worshippers’ rights guaranteed by international and humanitarian conventions, not to mention the assault on them and the Islamic and Christian sanctities in the city, falls exclusively on the Israeli occupation forces,” the statement added. Qatar renewed its support for the Palestinian cause and its people’s “full right to practice their religious rituals without restrictions”. “It also holds the occupation authorities solely responsible for the cycle of violence that will result from their systematic policies against the rights of the Palestinian people, and urges the international community to take urgent action to stop these measures,” the statement read. Israeli forces violently attacked worshippers at Al Aqsa Mosque late on Tuesday and forcefully removed hundreds of Palestinians holding night prayers to make way for Jewish settlers. Disturbing footage circulating on social media showed Israeli forces mercilessly beating up Palestinians while firing tear gas into the mosque. As part of Israel’s efforts to change the status quo of the mosque, settlers were granted the approval to sacrifice offerings at the Muslim site for the Passover holiday According to the Commission for Detainees and Ex-Detainees Affairs, Israel detained more than 400 worshipers during the assault.

What’s behind the Ramadan raids at Jerusalem’s Al-Aqsa Mosque? | Israel-Palestine conflict News | Al Jazeera -- Tensions in Jerusalem have flared after Israeli police attacked worshippers in the Al-Aqsa Mosque compound overnight during the holy month of Ramadan. The raids continued until Wednesday morning when Israeli forces were once again seen assaulting and pushing Palestinians out of the compound and preventing them from praying – before Israelis were allowed in under police protection. Before dawn on Wednesday, Israeli police stormed the Al-Aqsa Mosque compound in occupied East Jerusalem, attacking dozens of worshippers in the Qibli Mosque. Israeli police, who claimed they were responding to “rioting”, beat worshippers with batons and used tear gas and sound bombs to force them out of the prayer halls, according to witnesses.Videos shared on social media showed women screaming for help as a small fire erupted in the prayer hall. The Palestinian Red Crescent reported 12 people injured, including three who were taken to hospital. It also said in a statement that Israeli forces prevented its medics from reaching Al-Aqsa. At least 400 Palestinians were arrested and remain in Israeli custody, according to local officials. Israeli police said in a statement that they were forced to enter the compound after “masked agitators” locked themselves inside the mosque with fireworks, sticks and stones.The Israeli police also said that according to a prior agreement with the Al-Aqsa compound authorities, no one was to spend the night inside the compound during the month of Ramadan. “The police said they ‘peacefully’ tried to convince people to leave but when that didn’t happen they forced their way into Al-Aqsa,” said Al Jazeera’s Natasha Ghoneim. But Palestinian Authority Prime Minister Mohammad Shtayyeh condemned what happened as “a major crime against the worshippers”, adding that “prayer in Al-Aqsa Mosque is not with the permission of the [Israeli] occupation … it is our right.” In recent years, the Al-Aqsa Mosque compound has been an annual flashpoint during Ramadan. Last year, more than 300 Palestinians were arrested and at least 170 wounded as Israeli forces launched incursions at the compound during the holy month. This followed deadly violence in the occupied West Bank in late March, in which 36 people were killed. The Al-Aqsa compound sits on a plateau in East Jerusalem, which Israel captured in the 1967 Six-Day War and later annexed in a move not recognised by most in the international community. For Muslims, the compound hosts Islam’s third-holiest site, Al-Aqsa Mosque, and the Dome of the Rock, a seventh-century structure believed to be where the Prophet Muhammad ascended to heaven. The compound is also where Jews believe the Biblical Jewish temples once stood and is known to them as Temple Mount. The contested site has been the focal point of the decades-long Israeli occupation of the West Bank.

Israel attacks Syria and Palestinians as an answer to anti-government protests - The Israel Defence Forces (IDF) have carried out a series of attacks against targets in Syria, criminal acts of aggression in defiance of international law. Part of the US-Israeli covert war against Iran, they were carried out to support US imperialism’s efforts to counter its declining economic and political position in the Middle East and to oppose Iran, which has intervened militarily to defend the Syrian regime of President Bashar al-Assad. According to the Syrian defence ministry, Israel launched “an aerial aggression from the direction of northwest Beirut targeting some outposts in Homs city and its countryside at 00:35 a.m.” on Sunday. The strikes injured five military personnel, reportedly hitting the T4 air base west of the ancient city of Palmyra, as well as the al Dabaa airport near al Qusayr city. This is close to the Lebanese border where Hezbollah, the Iranian-backed bourgeois clerical group, is dominant. Reuters cited sources stating that Iran has military personnel stationed alongside Hezbollah at both airports, while pro-Iranian militias have a strong presence in that area of Homs province. Another target, according to the pro-imperialist London-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, was an Iranian facility suspected of developing missiles and drones, where several Iranian-affiliated fighters were allegedly killed. Iranian state media said that on Friday, an Israeli attack near Damascus, the Syrian capital, killed two members of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). In a statement issued Sunday, the Revolutionary Guards said, “The crimes of the Zionist regime will not go unanswered and they will pay for this.” Friday’s attack followed missiles being fired from the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights on targets outside Damascus on the nights of March 30 and 31. While Syrian air defences downed some of the missiles, the strikes injured five Syrian soldiers and caused material damage. It was Israel’s sixth attack on Syria in March, with two separate attacks on Aleppo’s international airport and another on a weapons depot in central Syria that killed a Syrian officer and two Iranian-backed fighters. It follows hundreds of attacks on Syria since the start of the CIA-led proxy war in 2011 to topple the Assad regime, a key Iranian ally. While the IDF originally targeted Hezbollah’s arms convoys, it later extended to Syrian government forces, Iranian-backed fighters and Hezbollah, as well as weapons-production sites, with Israel insisting that it would not allow Iran to operate near its borders. Syria’s civilian airports, including Damascus International Airport, and residential neighbourhoods, have been hit. The attacks on Aleppo’s airport are particularly criminal as it has been one of the main entry points for international aid trying to reach earthquake-hit zones in northern Syria. February’s catastrophic earthquake that struck Turkey has killed nearly 60,000 people, including around 8,500 in Syria, although the number of unreported cases is likely to be far higher than official figures. Millions are suffering from homelessness, hunger and terrible weather conditions in northwest Syria, with many people forced to live in emergency shelters or tents.

Israeli forces launch air strike on Gaza, explosions reported - Al Jazeera - The Israel Defence Forces (IDF) have announced a strike on Gaza late Thursday night, shortly after Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu made a video statement vowing that his country’s enemies would “pay a price for any aggression”.The Israeli military operation has led to reports of explosions across Gaza, as warplanes fly overhead. No casualties or injuries have been reported so far, but at least five sites have been targetted in the missile strike, according to initial media reports.They include agricultural land in Beit Hanoun in the northern Gaza Strip, two sites south of Gaza City, farmland east of the Al-Zaitoun neighbourhood near Gaza City and a site east of Khan Yunis in the southern Gaza Strip.The news source AFP said a Palestinian security source has indicated that Hamas training sites were struck in the attack.On Twitter, the Israel Defence Forces also said that air raid sirens were sounding in southern Israel.The attack on Gaza, a blockaded Palestinian enclave on the coast of the Mediterranean Sea, comes after the Israeli military said rockets were fired from the strip into southern Israel for a second straight day.The rocket fire comes amid ongoing tensions over the storming of the Al-Aqsa mosque compound in Jerusalem, where Israeli troops expelled Muslim worshippers from the holy site as they gathered for Ramadan prayers.Early on Wednesday, Israeli authorities said they fielded four missiles from Gaza in response to the two raids on the Al-Aqsa mosque. In response, Israeli planes launched attacks on Gaza, striking a target in the Nuseirat refugee camp in the centre of the strip as well as two sites west of Gaza City.

Attacks in Israel, West Bank kill 3 in worsening violence - — Palestinian assailants carried out a pair of attacks on Friday, killing three people and wounding at least six as tensions soared after days of fighting at Jerusalem’s most sensitive holy site, officials said. Earlier in the day, retaliatory Israeli airstrikes had hit Lebanon and the Gaza Strip, sparking fears of a broader conflict. Israeli authorities said an Italian tourist was killed and five other Italian and British citizens were wounded when a car rammed into a group of tourists in Tel Aviv, Israel’s commercial hub. In a separate incident, two British-Israeli women were shot to death near a settlement in the occupied West Bank. The spasm of violence in Israel and the West Bank heightened fears of an even more intense surge, with the rare convergence of the holy Muslim month of Ramadan, the Jewish Passover holiday and Easter currently underway. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said he was calling up all reserve forces in Israel’s border police, a paramilitary force usually deployed to suppress Palestinian unrest, “to confront the terror attacks.” The additional border police would be activated Sunday and join other units that have recently been deployed in Jerusalem and Lod, a town in central Israel with a mixed Jewish and Palestinian population. Israel had unleashed rare airstrikes on Lebanon and bombarded the Gaza Strip on Friday morning, but later in the day there were signs that both sides were trying to keep the border hostilities in check. The fighting subsided after dawn, and midday prayers at the Al-Aqsa Mosque in Jerusalem — a flashpoint for violence in recent days — passed peacefully. The round of violence erupted after Israeli police raided the mosque earlier in the week, sparking unrest in the contested capital and outrage across the Arab world. Militants fired an unusually large rocket barrage at Israel from southern Lebanon on Thursday — some of the heaviest and most serious cross-border violence since Israel’s 2006 war with Lebanon’s Hezbollah militants — as well as from Gaza. In the Tel Aviv car-ramming late Friday, the alleged attacker rammed his vehicle into a group of civilians near a popular seaside park, police said. Israel’s rescue service said a 30-year-old Italian man was killed, while five other British and Italian tourists — including a 74-year-old man and a 17-year-old girl — were receiving medical treatment for mild to moderate injuries.

Israel ‘Ready’ to Attack Iran Without US Help: IDF Chief –-The head of the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) said Wednesday that Israel is “ready” to attack Iran and could do so without help from the US.“We are ready to act against Iran. The Israeli army has the ability to strike both in distant countries and near home,” IDF Chief of Staff Herzi Halevi said.The comments come as tensions between Israel and Iran are soaring. Israel has ramped up its airstrikes in Syria and killed two members of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) in Damascus last Friday. Tehran has vowed that it will respond.Israel has a history of launching covert attacks inside Iran, but it’s not clear if its warplanes could pull off airstrikes against the Islamic Republic without assistance from the US. Halevi insisted that Israel can, as the IDF has been preparing to attack Iran for years.“We know how to act alone. We are a sovereign nation that reserves the right to make its own decisions. It would be good to have the United States on our side, but it is not an obligation,” he said.The US and Israel have been rehearsing for war with Iran by holding massive military exercises. In January, the US and Israel held their largest-ever joint drills in a provocative message aimed at Tehran.Tensions are also soaring in the region due to Israel’s crackdown on Palestinians and Israeli forces raiding the Al-Aqsa Mosque during Ramadan. A barrage of rockets was fired into Israel from Lebanon on Thursday in response. Sources told Reuters the rockets were fired by Palestinian factions based in Lebanon, not Hezbollah. Israel has blamed Hamas, signaling a potential escalation in Gaza.

Chinese warship starts live-fire drills near Taiwan (Reuters) - A Chinese warship in seas facing the Taiwan Strait began live-fire drills on Saturday as Beijing began military exercises it calls a warning against what it considers pro-Taiwan independence forces. The amphibious landing ship - capable of transporting troops, craft and vehicles - fired multiple rounds of artillery on Saturday morning in the Luoyan Bay area on the coast of Fujian province, about 50 km (30 miles) northwest of the Matsu islands near the mainland that are controlled by Taiwan. China views democratically governed Taiwan as its own territory and has never renounced the use of force to bring the island under its control. Taiwan's government strongly objects to China's claims. Smoke and muzzle flares were visible from the stern of the warship as shells were fired on targets on land and water. Fishing boats and huge cargo vessels cruised nearby, avoiding the drill area. The warship did not sail towards the windswept Matsu islands, controlled by Taiwan since the Republic of China government fled to Taipei in 1949 after losing a civil war to Mao Zedong's Communist forces. The area is considered an early target for Beijing in the event of a military escalation. China's Eastern Theater Command, one of the five commands of the People's Liberation Army that oversees the East China Sea including the Taiwan Strait, said combat readiness patrols would be conducted around Taiwan for three days as a "serious" warning against pro-Taiwan independence forces and to safeguard China's territorial integrity. Drills to the north, south and east of the island of Taiwan were also planned, after Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen met with U.S. House of Representatives Speaker Kevin McCarthy in the United States, drawing anger from Beijing.

Russia Will Beef Up Forces in Northwest as Finland Joins NATO - Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Grushko has said that Russia will beef up its military presence in its northwestern territory in response to Finland joining NATO.Finland’s ascension into NATO will more than double the alliance’s territory on the Russian border. The Russian-Finnish border is about 810 miles long and will now become more militarized.Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu announced last year that Moscow would deploy more forces near the Finnish border. Grushko said further steps depend on whether or not other NATO countries send military assets to Finland.“We will strengthen our military potential in the western and northwestern direction. In the event that the forces and resources of other NATO members are deployed in Finland, we will take additional steps to reliably ensure Russia’s military security,” Grushko said.NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said Monday that Finland will formally become the 31st member of the Western military alliance on Tuesday during a meeting of NATO foreign ministers.The ascension will come just two days after Finnish Prime Minster Sanna Marin lost an election to the center-right National Coalition Party, which is now tasked with forming a government that will likely be led by the party’s leader, Petteri Orpo. According to AP, the National Coalition Party has advocated for NATO membership for two decades.

Russia to Put Nukes Near Belarus’ Western Border: Envoy --The Russian ambassador to Belarus, Boris Gryzlov, said Sunday that Russian tactical nuclear weapons will be placed in western Belarus, near its border with NATO members.According to The Associated Press, Gryzlov said the nuclear weapons will be “moved up close to the Western border of our Union State.” The union state refers to the combined territories of Russia and Belarus. Belarus neighbors Poland, Latvia, and Lithuania, making the country’s border with NATO territory nearly 800 miles. “It will expand our defense capability, and it will be done regardless of all the noise in Europe and the United States,” Gryzlov added.Gryzlov’s comments came after Russian President Vladimir Putin announced he will be deploying tactical nukes to Belarus in response to the UK providing Ukraine with depleted uranium ammunition for its British-made tanks. The Russian leader said a facility to store the weapons should be completed by July 1.Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko said Friday that Russia might also deploy strategic nuclear weapons, which have a much higher nuclear yield than tactical warheads. “Putin and I will decide and introduce here, if necessary, strategic weapons, and they must understand this, the scoundrels abroad, who today are trying to blow us up from inside and outside,” Lukashenko said.Tactical nuclear weapons can range between 0.3 and 170 kilotons (the yield of the bomb the US dropped on Hiroshima was 15 kilotons), while strategic warheads can go over 1,000 kilotons. The US has about 100 B-61 tactical nuclear bombs deployed in Europe under NATO’s nuclear sharing program.When justifying his decision to send nukes to Belarus, Putin pointed to NATO nuclear sharing program. “The United States has been doing this for decades. They have long deployed their tactical nuclear weapons on the territory of their allied countries,” he said. Under NATO nuclear sharing, there are US B-61 nukes in Italy, Germany, Turkey, Belgium, and the Netherlands.

Ukraine Places Orthodox Priest Leader Under House Arrest - A Kyiv court on Saturday ordered the house arrest of Metropolitan Pavel, a Ukrainian Orthodox priest who is the head monk at the historic Pechersk Lavra Monastery.Pavel is suspected of justifying Russia’s invasion, which is a criminal offense in Ukraine. He has denied the allegations, saying he had “never been on the side of aggression.”After a court hearing on Saturday, a monitoring bracelet was placed on Pavel’s ankle despite his objections. The allegations against him were made by the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU), and SBU agents raided Pavel’s home.The arrest is part of a broader crackdown against the Ukrainian Orthodox Church (UOC) by the government of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. The UOC has historic ties to Russia but denounced the war and cut ties with Moscow following the invasion.The UOC’s steps weren’t enough for the Ukrainian government, as other priests have been arrested and sanctioned as part of the crackdown. Pavel’s house arrest comes as Kyiv is trying to evict UOC priests from the Pechersk Lavra, known as the Monastery of the Caves in English.The Ukrainian government owns the Pechersk Lavra and claims the priests living there have violated their lease by making alterations to the historic monastery. But the UOC priests say the accusations are just a pretext to kick them out. The priests at the Pechersk Lavra have refused to leave, and it has been a few days since Ukraine’s deadline for them to be evicted.

Why Most Of The World Isn't On Board With The NATO-Russia War --- As the war in Ukraine drags on into its second year, protest demonstrations have been taking place in major European cities. They express the growing sentiment that the people are tired of the protracted conflict and fearful of what could come should the war continue even longer. Memories of the catastrophic world wars that ravaged Europe in the first half of the last century and the terrible threat of nuclear annihilation that divided the continent in the second half of the century form the traumatic foundation from which Europeans are voicing their aversion to this conflict, which has the potential to spiral out of control and bring a major war to Europe and the world again. There have been protest demonstrations occurring in Germany, France, the Czech Republic, Greece, Spain, Great Britain, Belgium, Austria, Italy, Albania, Moldova, and others. European protests surrounding the anniversary of the start of the conflict notably span the Left-Right spectrum in opposing US-led North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) imperialism as well as the economic hardships that have befallen ordinary Europeans against the backdrop of sanctions on Russia and the funding of Ukraine. Italian port workers aligned with the Left protested in Genoa specifically to resist the use of Italian ports to supply arms deliveries to Ukraine. Meanwhile in France, demonstrations organized by the right-wing Les Patriotes party in various locations across the country called for France’s withdrawal from both NATO and the European Union. In all cases, the people on the streets at these events identify involvement in the war as harmful to general economic well-being and have been expressing frustration with their countries’ acquiescence to these intergovernmental and supranational organizations in fueling the violence while simultaneously discouraging dialogue. Feelings of skepticism toward NATO, the European Union, and the United States have become increasingly vocal in Europe due to the way that western countries are handling the war. In the minds of many Europeans, their governments are recklessly following the will of Washington, which could lead them into a serious escalation to a wider war.

Macron Says He Can Count on Xi to Bring Russia, Ukraine to Negotiating Table - French President Emmanuel Macron told Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing on Thursday that he can count on the Chinese leader to bring Russia to “its senses” and bring the warring sides in Ukraine to the negotiating table.“I know I can count on you … to bring Russia to its sense and bring everyone back to the negotiating table,” Macron said. “We need to find a lasting peace … I believe that this is also an important issue for China, as much as it is for France and for Europe.”Following talks with Macron, Xi said China and France should work together to push for a political solution to end the war and avoid steps that would escalate the conflict. “China is willing to call on the international community, along with France, to maintain rationality and restraint, and avoid taking actions that will further escalate the crisis or make it out of control,” Xi said.Macron made the trip to China with Ursula von der Leyen, the EU’s European Commission president. Von der Leyen said that Xi expressed a willingness to speak with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and said a conversation could happen when “conditions and time are right.”Xi emerged as a potential mediator between Russia and Ukraine after Chinareleased a 12-point peace plan for the conflict and he traveled to Moscow to meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin. Zelensky has maintained maximalist demands as preconditions for peace talks but expressed an openness to China’s proposal and wants to speak with Xi. President Biden has taken a much different approach to China’s calls for peace by immediately rejecting the idea of Beijing as a mediator. Ahead of Xi’s trip to Moscow, the White House came out against calls for a ceasefire in Ukraine.

Philippines Announces Locations of Four New US Bases -The Philippines on Monday announced the locations of four military basesthat the US will now have access to under a deal Washington and Manila signed in February.Three of the Philippine bases will be located in northern Philippine provinces, a move that angers China since they can be used as staging grounds for a fight over Taiwan. The US will be granted access to the Lal-lo Airport and the Naval Base Camilo Osias, which are both located in the northern Cagayan province. In the neighboring Isabela province, the US will gain access to Camp Melchor Dela Cruz.The US military will also be able to expand to Palawan, an island province in the South China Sea, disputed waters that are a major source of tensions between the US and China. The US will be granted access to Balabac Island, the southernmost island of Palawan. The new locations are on top of five bases the US currently has access to, bringing the total number of bases the US can rotate forces through in the Philippines to nine. The expansion in the Philippines is a significant step in the US effort to build up its military assets in the region to prepare for a future war with China.

Swiss Prosecutors Investigate UBS-Credit Suisse Merger Amid Anticipated Job Cuts --According to Bloomberg, Switzerland's Office of the Attorney General has initiated an investigation into possible crimes related to the UBS acquisition of Credit Suisse. Switzerland's top prosecutor said it was working to collect information on "numerous aspects" of the forced bail-in sale of Credit Suisse to UBS, though it provided very little details on what it was searching for. "In view of the relevance of the events," the top federal prosecutor "intends to pro-actively fulfill its mandate and responsibility to contribute to a clean Swiss financial center and has set up a monitoring system in order to take immediate action in the event of any circumstances that fall within its jurisdiction," the agency said. The attorney general said national and regional authorities are investigating and compiling information to "analyze and identify possible offenses." The Swiss newspaper SonntagsZeitung reported on Sunday that following the completion of the merger, the new Swiss mega bank might lay off upwards of 30% of its workforce, which equates to approximately 36,000 job losses. UBS shares initially rose this morning in Zurich but erased all gains by the afternoon, trading down 4% to 18.48 Swiss francs.

Barge leased on England’s south coast to house 500 asylum seekers -- The barge that will be docked in Portland Port is to accommodate single adult males whilst their asylum claims are processed, with the first residents due in the 'coming months'. Britain said on Wednesday that it had rented a barge to lodge 500 asylum seekers on England’s south coast, as the country strives to reduce the accommodation cost for migrants who arrive on its beaches. The Home Office said the accommodation barge will be used “to reduce the unsustainable pressure on the UK’s asylum system and cut the cost to the taxpayer caused by the significant increase in Channel crossings.” “The use of expensive hotels to house those making unnecessary and dangerous journeys must stop. We will not elevate the interests of illegal migrants over the British people we are elected to serve,” said Immigration Minister Robert Jenrick. “We have to use alternative accommodation options, as our European neighbours are doing –- including the use of barges and ferries to save the British taxpayer money and to prevent the UK from becoming a magnet for asylum shoppers in Europe,” he added. Prime Minister Rishi Sunak has vowed to stop crossings of the Channel, which hit more than 45,000 last year. He unveiled legislation last month to stop migrants illegally making the treacherous journey on small boats. Almost 88,000 people have crossed one of the world’s busiest waterways since 2018, leading the country’s asylum system to become overloaded. More than 160,000 people were awaiting a decision as of the end of December 2022, with most having waited more than six months, according to official figures.