Fed Hikes 25bps As Expected, Signals 'Hawkish Pause'; Warns Of 'Tighter Credit Standards' - Tl:dr; Fed raises rates by 25 bps as expected. Policy statement softens the rate guidance in a way consistent with past pauses and The Fed deletes reference to "some additional policy firming may be appropriate." A clear hat-tip to the banking crisis:"Recent development are likely to result in tighter credit conditions" removed and replaced with "Tighter credit conditions"The decision was unanimous.As WSJ Fed Whisperer Nick Timiraos notes: "The FOMC statement used language broadly similar to how officials concluded their interest-rate increases in 2006, with no explicit promise of a pause by retaining a bias to tighten." This is clearly more of a hawkish pause since it doesn't suggest whether 'policy easing' may be appropriate... ...but then again, if Powell had gone that far, markets would have panicked over "what does he know"?
FOMC Statement: Raise Rates 25 bp; Pause in June Likely - Fed Chair Powell press conference video here or on YouTube here, starting at 2:30 PM ET. FOMC Statement: Economic activity expanded at a modest pace in the first quarter. Job gains have been robust in recent months, and the unemployment rate has remained low. Inflation remains elevated. The U.S. banking system is sound and resilient. Tighter credit conditions for households and businesses are likely to weigh on economic activity, hiring, and inflation. The extent of these effects remains uncertain. The Committee remains highly attentive to inflation risks.The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. In support of these goals, the Committee decided to raise the target range for the federal funds rate to 5 to 5-1/4 percent. The Committee will closely monitor incoming information and assess the implications for monetary policy. In determining the extent to which additional policy firming may be appropriate to return inflation to 2 percent over time, the Committee will take into account the cumulative tightening of monetary policy, the lags with which monetary policy affects economic activity and inflation, and economic and financial developments. In addition, the Committee will continue reducing its holdings of Treasury securities and agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities, as described in its previously announced plans. The Committee is strongly committed to returning inflation to its 2 percent objective.In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook. The Committee would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee's goals. The Committee's assessments will take into account a wide range of information, including readings on labor market conditions, inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and financial and international developments.
Watch Live: Fed Chair Powell Attempt To Explain If The Pause Is Hawkish Or Dovish --The Fed statement was a hawkish pause - signaling "some additional policy firming may be appropriate" as opposed to "some additional policy easing may be appropriate."Can Fed Chair Powell walk the high-wire again - justifying a 'pause' with inflation so high and unemployment so low without spreading fear about the banking system crisis being worse than we know (remember they have seen the latest SLOOS data).Bear in mind that the market is now massively (and dovishly) divergent from The Fed's dot-plots for the end of this year and next year... How will Powell explain that 'higher for longer' compared to the market's belief that cuts are coming fast and many...“The chair will have his work cut out for him because when the chair will say ‘pause,’ the markets may hear ‘done.’ And if he says it again, they may hear ‘rate cuts,’” Richard Clarida, who served as Fed vice chair from 2018 until January 2022, said on Tuesday.Watch Powell explain why the market's wrong live here (due to start at 1430ET):
Powell Swats Down Rate Cut in 2023, Purposefully Leaves in Doubt a “Pause” for June Meeting - Fed chair Powell was bombarded by essentially the same question over and over again today during the press conference after the FOMC hiked its policy rates to 5.25% at the top of the range. Reporters were trying to nail him down: Has a decision been made about “pausing” the rate hikes in June? And he was asked if there will be “rate cuts” this year?Over and over again, he refused to lock in a pause for the June meeting – “A decision on a pause was not made today,” he started out with. Over and over again, he said that a pause would depend on the incoming data.And he brushed off the rate-cut question – “If our forecast is broadly right, it would not be appropriate to cut rates; we won’t cut rates,” he said.Timing for a rate cut this year is getting tight. First comes the pause, and then, later, comes the rate cut. Over the past 22 years – the prior three tightening cycles – the pauses lasted between seven months (2019) and 14 months (2006-2007). If the Fed pauses the rate hikes in June, there are only six months left in the year.But this time, the tightening cycle is dealing with the worst bout of inflation in 40 years. And Powell has once again expressed the Fed’s leeriness about inflation’s nasty habit of resurging: “We have seen inflation come down and move back up two or three times since March of 2021,” he said. And in this inflationary environment, a rate cut just isn’t appropriate, he said.Here are the prior three tightening cycles and their plateaus. If the Fed pauses in June and does one rate cut before year-end, it would be the quickest rate cut of any of them, in the most inflationary environment of all of them:“A decision on a pause was not made today. You will notice in the statement for March we had a sentence that said ‘the committee anticipates that some additional policy firming may be appropriate.’ That sentence is not in the statement anymore. We took that out. Instead we are saying that ‘in determining the extent to which additional policy firming may be appropriate,’ the committee will take in to account certain factors. So that’s a meaningful change that we we’re no longer saying that we ‘anticipate.’ And so we will be driven by incoming data meeting by meeting and we will approach that question at the June meeting.”“The assessment of the extent to which additional policy firming may be appropriate is going to be an ongoing one, meeting by meeting. And we’re going to be looking at the factors that I mentioned that are listed in the statement, the obvious factors. That’s the way we’re going to be thinking about it.”“There is a sense that we’re much closer to the end of this than to the beginning. If you add up all the tightening that’s going on through various channels, we feel like we’re getting close or maybe even there. But then again that’s going to be an ongoing assessment. And we’re going to be looking at those factors that we listed to determine whether there is more to do.”“With our monetary policy, we’re trying to reach and then stay for an extended period at a policy stance that’s sufficiently restrictive to bring inflation down 2% over time. That’s what we are trying to do with our tool. I think slowing down was the right move. I think it has enabled us to see more data, and it will continue to do so.“We always have to balance the risk of not doing enough, and not getting inflation under control against the risk of maybe slowing down economic activity too much. And we thought that this rate hike along with the meaningful change in our policy statement was the right way to balance that.“We have seen inflation come down and move back up two or three times since March of 2021. So I think you’re going to want to see that a few months of data will persuade you that you have got this right.”
Wall Street Reacts To Powell's Hawkish Pause -While opinions differed on the margin, the broad consensus is that the Fed just paused its rate hike campaign - pulling a line, literally, from its 2006 FOMC statement when it also was dragged, kicking and screaming, into a Fed pause (before all hell eventually broke loose - after the 10th consecutive rate hike, lifting rates by 25bps to 5.25%. And while the market now sees the Fed as now done and starting to cut as soon as September...... here is a smattering of Wall Street hot takes on the topic, most of which are largely in agreement.
- Jeff Gundlach, Doubleline:"I suspect the Fed won't raise rates again"
- Bloomberg Economics’ Chief US Economist Anna Wong: “The Fed has marked 5.25% as the terminal rate in this tightening cycle, raising rates by another 25 basis points at the May FOMC meeting — and, more importantly, signaling in the policy statement that this will be the last hike for a while. “Bloomberg Economics expects the Fed to pause at its June meeting, at which point the labor market will be showing clearer signs of softening. We expect the Fed to hold rates at this peak level through 1Q24 as inflation comes down only very gradually.”
- Bloomberg Intelligence Chief Rates Strategist Ira Jersey ":"The belly of the yield curve is outperforming given the relatively dovish statement from the FOMC, and that may continue beyond today. The removal of the Fed’s ‘firming’ language is telling. It allows the Fed to hike if needed without pre-committing as they basically have during recent meetings. We think they are likely to pause in June, but that’s not a given.”
- Bloomberg Economics’ Stuart Paul: “In his press conference, Powell noted that the balance between labor supply and demand is coming into better balance, with prime participation increasing and job vacancies declining. However, he was clear that the Fed views the labor market as still very tight.” “In one of the few answers that he didn’t have well-scripted in the presser, Powell was slow to specify just how tight monetary policy would remain if headline inflation stayed around 3% on a year-over-year basis for a prolonged period of time. At 3% inflation, he acknowledged, the employment and price stability mandates would carry equal weight.”
- George Goncalves, head of US macro strategy at MUFG, "The statement chimes with the Fed’s take back in 2006, when it pushed the funds rate to a peak of 5.25%. They never flat-out come out with ‘we are done’ but this was as close as they could have done so in my book. It’s codified in the statement -- like 2006.”
- Jan Hatzius, Goldman Sachs chief economist: "As we expected, the FOMC balanced the hint toward a June pause with a clear message that it retains a hawkish bias, noting that it would take into account “the cumulative tightening of monetary policy, the lags with which monetary policy affects economic activity and inflation, and economic and financial developments” in “determining the extent to which additional policy firming may be appropriate”.
- Ellen Zentner, Morgan Stanley: The May statement held little surprise vs our expectation. The Fed delivered a 25bp hike, setting the range of the federal funds rate at 5.00% to 5.25%, and has moved into a conditional pause... We also expected the Fed to memorialize how long rates would remain elevated and it chose not to. That can be interpreted as more dovish than we expected, particularly when compared to Governor Waller's recent - more hawkish - warning that policy would remain tight for "longer than markets anticipate".
- Ian Lyngen of BMO: “Powell will strike a dovish tone and stress the heightened uncertainty as the cumulative tightening works its way through the real economy."
- BE’s Anna Wong: “It’s notable that Powell openly admits he disagrees with Fed staff’s forecasts. Even though Fed governors and presidents don’t always agree with staff forecasts, staff views are often the benchmark that guide members’ forecasts. For the Fed chair to admit he disagrees with staff forecasts is a vote of no-confidence in their reliability.”
- Renaissance Macro: "At this point, the Fed call is a call on the evolution of the economic data. If we are right, the Fed may well be revising up their growth estimates in the June SEP. Events might allow the Fed to skip that meeting, but ultimately, we expect another hike (or two) this year."
- Viraj Patel, Vanda Research:"Given the amount that Powell is talking about credit tightening... SLOOS clearly tightened quite significantly (from already high levels). Now is a case of how persistent that credit tightening is - and how quickly it feeds through to real economy"
Powell: Fed made 'mistakes' in regulation and supervision on his watch — Federal Reserve Board Chair Jerome Powell said the central bank has made regulatory mistakes on his watch and he holds himself accountable for addressing them. "I've been chairing the board for five-plus years now, and I fully recognize that we made mistakes," Powell said, nodding to the three banks that have failed during the past two months. "I think we've learned some new things as well, and we need to do better." Powell addressed the failures and last week's report from Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr on the Fed's own supervisory shortcomings during his post Federal Open Market Committee press conference on Wednesday afternoon. Powell said he played no role in compiling Barr's report, but its findings were "persuasive." He said he fully agreed with the conclusions that regulatory policy and supervisory practices at the central bank were insufficient, and added that he would support whatever changes are needed to address those shortcomings. "What our job is now is to identify those things and implement them, and that's kind of the only thing I care about," Powell said. "I feel like I am accountable for doing everything we can to make sure that that happens." The resolution of First Republic Bank, which was seized by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. and sold to JPMorgan over the weekend, "draws a line under" the period of severe stress related to the ongoing banking crisis, Powell said. He noted that the three most impacted banks — Silicon Valley Bank, Signature Bank and First Republic — have all been dealt with. Moving forward, he said, the Fed will monitor credit standards at small and medium-size banks to determine how much the crisis will impact the availability to households. Previously, Powell said the resulting tightening had the cumulative impact of a roughly 25 basis point increase to the Fed's funds rate, but he said it was impossible to determine with precision. Powell did not offer specific policy recommendations in response to the report, saying that Barr will take the lead on that effort.
Ex-Fed Pres Kaplan Urges Powell To Pause, Warns 'Bank Pain Is Just Getting Started' - After yesterday's bloodbath, Regional bank stocks tumbled further earlier this morning (before recovering) after former Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan warns that the US regional banking crisis is far from over...“I’d prefer to do what’s called the hawkish pause, not raise but signal that we are in a tightening stance, because I actually think the banking situation may well be more serious than we currently understand,” Kaplan, whose career has also included time as a senior executive at Goldman, said in a Bloomberg Television interview.And now that he's on the outside, urges The Fed to pause its rate hike campaign.“It is more important to be able to sustain the current rate for an extended period of time, longer than the market thinks, than to get another 25-50 basis points and risk having to cut again. I think that will be very troubling,” said Kaplan, who left the Fed in 2021 after disclosures about his trading activity that drew criticism for potential conflicts of interest.Funny how that happens once they are on the outside. Most worryingly, Kaplan went on to claim that bank stocks have been marked down solely because of their over-investment in US Treasuries, while the credit phase, which is “normally more serious,” is yet to unfold.
Fed’s Balance Sheet Plunges by $230 Billion in 6 Weeks, Biggest such Plunge in 14 Years - By Wolf Richter (graphs throughout) Today we were served a special spectacle on the Federal Reserve’s weekly balance sheet. Total assets dropped by $59 billion in the week, and by $230 billion in the six weeks since peak bank bailout, to $8.50 trillion, as QT continued on track with a big Treasury securities roll-off, and as First Republic, the FDIC, and JP Morgan were splattered all over this balance sheet. Looking at total assets with a magnifying glass to see the details of the banking crisis:
- Repos with “foreign official” counterparties: paid off in the prior week. This was likely the program that the Swiss National Bank used to provide dollar-liquidity support for the take-under of Credit Suisse by UBS.
- Discount Window (“Primary Credit”): -$68 billion in the week, to just $5 billion. Since the rate hike yesterday, the Fed charges banks 5.25% to borrow at the Discount Window. Banks also have to post collateral, valued at “fair market value.” This is expensive money for banks that can normally borrow from depositors for a lot less without having to post collateral. It’s where they go when they need a lender-of-last-resort. And when they don’t need it anymore, they pay off those loans.
- Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP): -$6 billion in the week to $76 billion. Under this program, rolled out on March 13, banks can borrow for up to one year, at a fixed rate, pegged to the one-year overnight index swap rate plus 10 basis points. Banks have to post collateral, but valued “at par.”Because the BTFP is somewhat less punitive than the Discount Window and provides for one-year funding, there had been a shift in April from the Discount Window to the BTFP. And so we put them on the same chart to see the flows between them.First Republic’s borrowings at the Discount Window and at the BTFP were paid off after the FDIC resolved First Republic over the weekend and then sold the assets to JP Morgan, which also agreed to take on the deposits and other liabilities. And this is in part what we can see here.This chart shows both, the loans at the Discount Window (red), which plunged to just $5 billion, and the loans at the BTFP (green), which dropped to $76 billion:
- Are you ready for the fun part? Loans to FDIC: +$58 billion in the week, to $228 billion. When JP Morgan acquired the assets of First Republic from the FDIC, it paid the FDIC $182 billion for those assets. The payment came in different forms (we walked through all this in detail here):
- $10.6 billion in cash.
- $92.4 billion by taking on the deposits (liabilities) that are owed the depositors of First Republic.
- $28 billion by taking on the advances First Republic had gotten from Federal Home Loan Banks (FHLB), and which JPM now has to pay off.
- $50 billion loan from the FDIC.
US Recession Probability Reaches 67% -- What month will the National Bureau of Economic Research someday get around to saying marked the beginning of the next recession in the U.S.? The NBER is notoriously slow in identifying when the business cycle in the U.S. either peaks before going into recession or troughs when coming out of one, often lagging behind these events by many months. That's because they take a number of data series into consideration and will wait until many go through revisions before determining if the national U.S. economy has truly changed direction from growth to contraction or vice versa according to their model of the economy. Because they're so slow, analysts have built models to try to predict the timing of when the country's business cycle has changed when evidence is building that it has, long before the NBER makes its "official" determination. Some of these models are oriented toward recession forecasting. They have been built to use currently available data to try to anticipate the most likely timing of when the NBER will be likely to say the business cycle changed from boom to bust.In a sense, they're using models to predict when the NBER's business cycle model will someday find the U.S. economy went into recession! That brings us to a recession forecasting model whose results we've been featuring since October 2022, when a leading recession indicator first flashed a red warning light.That model was introduced by Jonathan Wright in a 2006 paper while he worked at the Federal Reserve Board. This model uses just three data series to generate the probability the NBER will identify a month sometime between a date of interest and one year into the future. One of those datapoints is the rolling one-quarter average of the Federal Funds Rate. The other two are the rolling one-quarter averages of the yields of two constant maturity U.S. Treasurys, one for the 10-Year UST note, the other for the 3-Month T-bill.For this data, the red warning light starts flashing when the yield of the 3-Month Treasury drops below the yield of the 10-Year Treasury. This is a clear signal the U.S. Treasury yield curve has inverted, with short term yields paying higher yields than long-term yields. Historically, yield curve inversions have occurred before the U.S. economy entered into recession. Wright's innovation was to also take the level of the Federal Funds Rate into account, recognizing that how the Federal Reserve sets it in accordance with its monetary policies affects the likelihood of recession.As of the close of trading on 27 April 2023, Wright's recession forecasting model anticipates a 67.0% probability the period between now and the end of April 2024 will contain the month the NBER will someday say marked the beginning of a national recession in the U.S.The latest update to the Recession Probability Track shows how that probability has evolved since our previous update one month ago.
The Path To Full Stagflation - In an article last week, I referred to the combination of rapidly slowing US economic growth and persistently high inflation as “stagflation lite.” Despite receding from the highs of last summer, inflation remains near its highest levels in decades as disinflation (particularly in services) has recently slowed to a crawl. Meanwhile, US economic growth has been on a downward trajectory over the past few years, including a brief recession in the middle two quarters of 2022. What’s currently missing from the full stagflationary scenario is elevated unemployment. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported the U-3 US unemployment rate as 3.5 percent in March 2023, which is near historic lows. Indeed, low employment has been a thorn in Fed officials’ side since they began hiking short-term rates in March of 2022. The below chart depicts the current, stagflation lite conditions: high inflation (March 2023 year-over-year headline CPI at roughly 5 percent), declining economic growth (1st quarter 2023 US GDP at 1.1 percent), and U-3 employment at 3.5 percent. (Source: Bloomberg Finance, LP)Could a full stagflationary episode evolve from this? It’s possible that one already is, according to two sources of data. First, a look at unemployment data on a state-by-state basis. Tracking the 4-week, year-over-year percentage changes in initial filings for unemployment, 24 of 51 states (50 states plus Washington DC) are showing an average 10-percent or greater increase in those filings over the period from mid-March 2023 to mid-April 2023. The ten US states with the lowest unemployment rates, as of mid-April 2023, include the following: South Dakota (1.9 percent), Nebraska (2.1 percent), North Dakota (2.1 percent), Alabama (2.3 percent), Montana (2.3 percent), New Hampshire (2.4 percent), Utah (2.4 percent), Missouri (2.5 percent), Wisconsin (2.5 percent), and Florida (2.6) percent. Below are the recent trends in initial unemployment filings in those low-unemployment-rate states.
Treasury Quarterly Refunding Preview --The Treasury's quarterly refunding announcement on May 3rd is expected to see all coupon sizes left unchanged, again according to Newsquawk. Specifically, it is expected to sell USD 40bln of 3yr notes. USD 35bln of 10yr notes, and USD 21bln of 30yr bonds. Treasury looks to increase bills as a share of the marketable debt: the share is currently at the low end of the TBAC's recommended 15-20% range. However, the share will not meaningfully increase until a resolution on the debt limit is reached, which desks don't expect until later in the year, although we may get an updated view from the Treasury on when they expect the "X-date" to occur. Treasury Secretary Yellen recently estimated it to be in early June, although depending on tax receipts, that could extend to later in the summer. On coupon supply, some desks do expect the Treasury to increase auction sizes again from the end of this year once the debt limit is resolved and bill share has increased, so the TBAC minutes might give us some colour on that. Finally, a Treasury buyback facility remains the wildcard, where nothing concrete is expected from this refunding, but a facility does appear closer following the recent questionnaire sent out to primary dealers on buybacks. BofA, to wit, "these questions combined with TBAC communication at the February refunding continues to suggest that the rollout of a buyback program at both the 0 - 1Y & 1Y+ tenors is more likely than not.''
Treasury Keeps Quarterly Debt Sales Unchanged Ahead Of Second Half Surge, Stuns Market With Launch Of Treasury Buybacks - The Treasury has published details of its quarterly refunding and subsequent Treasury auctions, and as previewed earlier, it kept sales of longer-term debt steady for the third straight time, in line with dealers’ forecasts, while unexpectedly announcing a new program to buyback older securities, starting sometime in 2024. According to some, a buyback program is not that different from QE as it injects liquidity into the system at regular intervals. Subject to the ongoing limitations of the debt ceiling, the Treasury kept new issuance unchanged; It announced it would offer $96 billion of Treasury securities to refund approximately $75.2 billion in notes maturing on May 15, 2023. This issuance will raise new cash from private investors of approximately $20.8 billion. The securities are:
- A 3-year note in the amount of $40 billion, issued on May 9 and maturing May 15, 2026;
- A 10-year note in the amount of $35 billion, issued on May 10 and maturing May 15, 2033; and
- A 30-year bond in the amount of $21 billion, issued on May 11 and maturing May 15, 2053.
The balance of Treasury financing requirements over the quarter will be met with regular weekly bill auctions, cash management bills (CMBs), and monthly note, bond, Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS), and 2-year Floating Rate Note (FRN) auctions.The Treasury said it believes that current issuance sizes leave it well-positioned for its near-term borrowing needs, and so intends to keep nominal coupon and FRN new issue and reopening auction sizes unchanged during the May 2023 – July 2023 quarter, which are shown in the table below.Yet with tax receipts far below expectations (which will lead to an earlier debt ceiling X-date) and the budget deficit widening as the Fed shrinks its holdings of Treasuries, US debt managers widely anticipated a surge in issuance of longer-term securities later in the year, something which the Treasury's latest debt borrowing estimates strongly hinted at, by anticipating $1.45 trillion in borrowing needs for the April-September period. The Treasury Department said Wednesday that may happen as soon as August — an earlier timeframe than many dealers thought, to wit: "based on projected intermediate- to long-term borrowing needs, Treasury may need to modestly increase auction sizes later this year, potentially as soon as the August 2023 refunding announcement."
The U.S. could run out of money by June 1 if debt ceiling isn't raised, Yellen cautions — In a letter to Congress, U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said that if Congress fails to raise the debt ceiling, the United States may not be able to meet all of its debt obligations as soon as June 1, adding renewed urgency to ongoing—but as of yet— fruitless negotiations between the Democrats and Republicans Monday's projection leaves lawmakers with a more truncated timeline than was previously indicated, pushing the U.S. and global economy perilously close to a financial crisis. Yellen noted that the Treasury Department has some room to maneuver, but that time is running out. "The estimate is based on currently available data, as federal receipts and outlays are inherently variable, and the actual date that Treasury exhausts extraordinary measures could be a number of weeks later than estimates," Yellen noted. The debt ceiling is a legal limit set by Congress on the amount of money the government can borrow to meet its spending obligations. If Congress fails to raise the debt ceiling by the so-called "X-Date," when the government runs out of money, the consequences could be severe and widespread, not least of which is the potential to tarnish the country's credit rating. A default could also affect the value of the U.S. dollar, resulting in higher borrowing costs for the government. A failure to raise the debt ceiling could also lead to a government shutdown, stalling essential government services and disrupting the lives of millions of Americans, particularly the 9 million Americans who work for, or receive, contracts or grants from the federal government. President Biden has called on Congress to pass a "clean" debt ceiling increase without conditions, but the Republican-controlled House recently passed a bill that would tie a debt ceiling increase to a raft of spending cuts. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., has scheduled hearings on the House bill, which he called a "hard-right ransom note to the American people." Policymakers and leaders are increasingly aware of the urgency of the situation and the need for immediate action. Following Yellen's statement, President Biden extended an invitation to House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, Schumer and others for a meeting on May 9 at the White House.
U.S. debt ceiling must be raised or suspended by June, Treasury says - President Biden invited House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) and other congressional leaders to the White House next week to discuss the debt ceiling, as Washington scrambled Monday to respond to news that the government could default on its obligations as soon as June 1.Biden’s request for talks followed a jarring new projection from the Treasury Department that the government could run out of cash to pay its bills in as few as four weeks without additional borrowing authority — an unprecedented event that could rattle world financial markets and tip the fragile U.S. economy into another recession.The debt ceiling imposes a legal limit on the amount of money the U.S. government can borrow, currently set at $31 trillion. Since the national debt hit the cap in January, the Biden administration has adopted special budgetary maneuvers to conserve cash and buy time for lawmakers either to raise the limit or to suspend its enforcement.Republican lawmakers — who took control of the House in January — have tried to seize on the looming deadline to extract spending cuts and other policy concessions from the White House. Last week, the House approved a Republican measure that would briefly raise the debt ceiling while cutting billions of dollars in federal spending and repealing some of Biden’s recent legislative accomplishments.The president has threatened to veto the measure and called on Congress to raise the debt ceiling without conditions. Until Monday, Biden had also refused to haggle with Republicans over an issue that poses such immense risks to the economy.But with Monday’s news that default could come as soon as next month, the president set in motion a plan to hold talks on May 9, personally calling McCarthy as well as Senate Majority Leader Charles E. Schumer (D-N.Y.), Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.), according to a White House official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to describe private conversations.The Treasury Department, meanwhile, sounded an urgent alarm about the need for haste: In a letter to lawmakers, Treasury Secretary Janet L. Yellen said the agency may be “unable to continue to satisfy all of the government’s obligations by early June, and potentially as early as June 1.”
Yellen says drop-dead date for debt ceiling is June 1 --Lawmakers have until June 1 to raise the nation’s debt ceiling, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen wrote in a letter to congressional leaders on Monday. Yellen told lawmakers she expects the U.S. to no longer be able to pay all of its outstanding obligations by as early as June 1, ramping up pressure on Congress and the White House to come to an agreement. Yellen initially told lawmakers it was unlikely the federal government would exhaust the so-called extraordinary measures it has been using to continue paying its bills before early June. But now, citing recent tax revenues, Yellen said the deadline is expected to come sooner than expected. The Congressional Budget Office (CBO), Congress’s chief nonpartisan budget scorekeeper, also warned on Monday there is “significantly greater risk that the Treasury will run out of funds in early June,” citing lower-than-expected revenue in April. “We now know that receipts from income tax payments processed in April were less than we anticipated in our latest baseline budget projections,” CBO chief Phillip Swagel said on Monday. “Moreover, we expect that the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) — after several years of disruptions resulting from the coronavirus pandemic — will finish processing tax returns more rapidly than it did last year.” “As a result, we anticipate that the IRS will process relatively few additional payments in May, as it did in the years before the pandemic,” he added. “That, in combination with less-than-expected receipts through April, means that the Treasury’s extraordinary measures will be exhausted sooner than we previously projected.” The timetable gives lawmakers precious little time to work out the mechanics of a deal, and lawmakers wasted no time pointing the finger at the other party. “Time’s a-wasting. Let’s get this figured out,” Sen. Jon Tester (D-Mont.) told reporters on Monday shortly after the news broke. President Biden and Democrats are demanding that House Republicans raise the debt ceiling as part of a “clean” piece of legislation, while the GOP wants any hike in the borrowing limit tied to spending cuts. Rep. Brendan Boyle (D-Pa.), the top Democrat on the House Budget Committee, said in a statement on Monday that the development “needs to be a wake-up call for Speaker McCarthy,” while taking aim at a partisan plan Republicans passed last week to raise the debt ceiling. Republicans, meanwhile, put the onus on Biden. “We knew it was coming,” Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas) said. “We just didn’t know exactly when it was. But that provides a little more information for President Biden to get off the couch and talk to Speaker McCarthy and work something out.” Sen. Shelley Moore Capito (R-W.Va.) expressed surprise with the timeline but said the development puts pressure on the White House to come to the bargaining table with McCarthy. “The president’s the leader; he needs to engage,” she said, while adding she thinks Yellen is “carrying his water.”
McConnell insists he’s sitting out debt talks — to disbelief Senate GOP Leader Mitch McConnell (Ky.) insists he will not come up with a rescue plan this time as Republicans and a Democratic president battle over the debt limit. McConnell has a long history of negotiating with President Biden on high-profile issues, such as extending the Bush tax cuts at the end of 2010, avoiding a national default in 2011 and avoiding the fiscal cliff at the end of 2012. The Senate GOP leader also supported the bipartisan infrastructure package and big new investments in the domestic semiconductor industry, two big Biden agenda items. But McConnell says Biden and Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) need to work out a deal on the debt limit among themselves, arguing any proposal that originates from the Senate can’t pass the House. “The president knows how to do this. … Until he and the Speaker of the House reach an agreement, we’ll be at a standoff,” McConnell told reporters. “We have divided government. The president and the Speaker need to come together and solve the problem.” Republican aides say McConnell’s strategy has the advantage of also keeping Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.), whom Republicans see as a tougher negotiator than Biden, out of the talks. A Senate Republican aide says Schumer also has more “leverage” than House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries (N.Y.), who is in the minority and was recently elected to the House Democrat’s top leadership job. McConnell’s insistence that he won’t step in at the last moment to cut a deal with Democrats to extend the nation’s borrowing authority is being met with widespread skepticism, however, even from fellow Republican senators. “McConnell is probably just sitting there waiting for it to all fail, so he can be asked to come in and be the savior,” said one Republican senator who requested anonymity to comment on what to expect from McConnell in the debt limit fight. Other GOP senators say they expect talks between Biden and McCarthy to stall and then for the ball to be in McConnell’s court. “I think [McConnell’s] position is, ‘Let’s see what the House can do that makes sense.’ But here’s the reality, the likelihood of the House being able to propose something seems to be questionable. Eventually, Schumer’s going to bring up a bill to increase the debt ceiling, a clean debt-ceiling increase, and we’re going to have to vote on it [in the Senate],” Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) told The Hill earlier this year.
‘No solution in the Senate’: Both parties dig in on debt - Congressional leaders are digging in ahead of next week’s White House meeting on the debt limit, with House Democrats prepping a Hail Mary while Republicans wait on President Joe Biden to meet them at the table. The GOP’s insistence on Democratic concessions in the debt talks makes it highly unlikely that House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries will succeed in his latest pitch: an arcane procedural maneuver that requires Republican support in order to jam Speaker Kevin McCarthy into voting on a “clean” hike to the nation’s borrowing limit. Jeffries told his caucus in a Tuesday letter that he’s pursuing a so-called discharge petition on a standalone debt limit hike. That petition allows any bill to come to the House floor with the signatures of a simple majority of members — which means Democrats would need a handful of Republican colleagues to agree. And that GOP agreement is highly unlikely to materialize any time soon. Jeffries’ plan landed with a thud among Republicans who want to see Biden give ground first, despite the Treasury Department’s warning that the nation could exhaust its ability to pay bills as early as June 1. Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell confirmed that he will attend next week’s White House meeting while stressing that a deal must be struck by Biden and McCarthy: “There is no solution in the Senate.” Biden must “make a counteroffer” during next week’s scheduled meeting with both parties’ top Hill leaders, Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) agreed on Tuesday. “And a counteroffer cannot be a clean debt ceiling.” No matter what compromise Biden can stomach, Tillis added, “there’s no question that” it would lose votes from House Republicans who supported McCarthy’s conservative opening bid last week. That bill would lift the nation’s borrowing cap by $1.5 trillion or through March 2024, whichever comes first, while slashing $130 billion in government funding and tightening work requirements for federal benefits. Tillis described a Senate vote on a clean debt ceiling hike through the 2024 election, which Majority Leader Chuck Schumer is considering, as a “gimmick” and a “waste of chamber time” given the certainty of a GOP filibuster. Senate Democrats will decide whether to put a clean debt ceiling increase up for a vote after the White House meeting on May 9, Schumer told reporters Tuesday. If the Senate passes a clean debt limit increase, Congress could use the House GOP’s fiscal bill as a potential vehicle for a bipartisan government funding deal, Schumer said Tuesday. Yet the chances of that happening appear slim at the moment, with Republicans demanding massive federal funding cuts in exchange for raising the borrowing limit and GOP leaders refusing to decouple spending from debt.
Energy spat widens partisan divide over debt ceiling - The gaping partisan divide over how to avert a national default shows no immediate signs of narrowing, as House Republicans spent the weekend defending their freshly passed debt limit bill while Senate Democrats made clear the GOP proposal would never see the light of day in their chamber. It’s far from clear if or even how the two parties will overcome differences in time to meet the deadline for raising the debt ceiling, which could arrive as early as next month. It’s also murky as ever what Republicans are willing to risk, politically and philosophically, in the process. They have said they will not allow enactment of a debt ceiling bill that’s “clean” — one that doesn’t contain significant policy concessions and spending limits. But the plan they passed last week is so far from what Democrats will accept by way of a compromise, and Republicans haven’t signaled what they’d be willing to give up to get a deal. The House Republican bill — H.R. 2811, the “Limit, Save, Grow Act — would restore spending levels to those enacted in fiscal year 2022 and puts in more stringent work requirements to qualify for federal food assistance programs. It also contains the full text of the energy package the GOP passed in March, which would expand domestic energy production by allowing more oil, gas and mineral exploration on public lands and make dramatic changes to the National Environmental Policy Act to speed up permitting for energy projects. Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick (R-Pa.), a moderate ally of the environmental community who was the only Republican to vote against the energy package, told E&E News he voted for the debt ceiling bill last week because he knew it would never be enacted. “Every single one of us knows that yesterday was nothing more than a mechanism to get [House Speaker] Kevin [McCarthy (R-Calif.)] and the president to sit down and deal with an existential threat,” Fitzpatrick explained. “If there was a 1 percent chance of any of these provisions ever becoming law, a lot of us would have treated that very differently.”
How McCarthy could pick off centrist Dems with 4 debt-limit ideas - The first test is over for Speaker Kevin McCarthy, who muscled together near-total GOP support for a debt plan he padded with conservative priorities. The vast majority of the debt-limit package House Republicans passed last week is unacceptable to every single Democrat on either end of the Capitol. But GOP leaders are hoping some components of their plan could get buy-in from a smattering of politically vulnerable lawmakers across the aisle. That contingent of potentially dealmaking Democrats could prove critical as McCarthy pushes President Joe Biden to abandon his insistence on a “clean” increase to the nation’s borrowing limit. The speaker is set to meet the president for round two of debt-ceiling talks next week, alongside Congress’ other top three leaders, as the nation faces the risk of defaulting on $31.4 trillion in debt in as little as one month. On several occasions during debt-limit negotiations over the last decade, the unpredictable fallout of a looming deadline has helped persuade dozens of lawmakers from each party to begrudgingly support concessions they didn’t love. This time, ideas like beefing up work requirements for food assistance programs aren’t gaining the bipartisan appeal Republicans might have hoped for, while other proposals — like easing permitting for energy projects — might attract enough interest among Democrats to get added to a final deal. A sizable share of lawmakers in both parties agree that it takes too long to get permits for energy project construction in the U.S. So House Republicans’ push to streamline permitting rules just might have legs. But what an agreement would look like, exactly, remains a big question. And Democrats remain resistant to linking energy policy to the debt-limit debate. “This may be one of the few things we can actually accomplish in this Congress,” Sen. Martin Heinrich (D-N.M.) said. He added that it’s “very clear” Republicans are focused on permitting for oil and gas pipelines, instead of electric transmission lines — an emphasis Democrats could shift. “They are just out of step with where the economy and country are,” Heinrich said of House GOP lawmakers. “That’s hopefully where the Senate comes in and rebalances.” Worried that green perks could go to waste from the party-line tax and climate law they cleared last year, many Democrats want the federal government to make it easier to connect clean energy to the grid. Progressives are reluctant to shorten the length of environmental reviews for energy projects, however, for fear that could hurt low-income communities and communities of color. Details: The House Republican package would streamline permitting reviews for energy projects and mines. But it’s also chock full of partisan priorities like protecting fracking, forcing the sale of oil and gas leases, killing tax benefits for green energy projects and pooh-poohing Biden’s decision to kill the Keystone XL pipeline. Sympathizers: Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) has tried to rally bipartisan support for overhauling energy permitting rules. But he failed last year, as progressive lawmakers argued against changing the rules for environmental reviews and Republicans spurned him for supporting Democrats’ trademark climate law.
Biden wants McConnell at the debt ceiling table, despite (or because of) their history - Everyone seems to want Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell at the debt ceiling negotiating table — except McConnell. As the nation’s deadline to default rapidly closes in, President Joe Biden and congressional Democrats have been eager to get the Republican Senate leader in the room. Their hopes have been relatively quiet so far, driven by the sense that McConnell — a senator not long ago derided by Democrats as a singularly obstinate force — would help resolve an increasingly dire standoff. But now that hope has burst into public view. Next week’s meeting between Biden and the so-called Big Four congressional leaders marks a new stage in the standoff. And it is a conscious effort by the White House to get McConnell to have some skin in the game. Biden and his team have consciously side-stepped the one-on-one negotiation Republicans want to have between the president and House Speaker Kevin McCarthy. But they have calculated it is no longer politically tenable to have no talks at all. So they’re formally setting up a parallel track of conversations around raising the debt limit and addressing the budget, a coy way to talk about the GOP demands to reduce spending while keeping to the president’s pledge to not negotiate over default. “The meeting is primarily about negotiating the normal budget progress, where all four leaders have a stake,” said a senior administration official who was granted anonymity to explain why the top leaders were invited. “And, of course, any bill to avoid Congress forcing a default on the American people has to pass both chambers of Congress.” The possibility that McConnell will help Biden keep his pledge to not link the debt limit and budget seems unlikely at best. The senator said he would attend the meeting but moved to distance himself from the negotiation, insisting that any resulting deal has to come between the president and McCarthy. “The speaker of the House has been sitting at the grown-ups table for months waiting for President Biden to act like a leader,” McConnell said Wednesday. “I accept his invitation to join the meeting myself but I’ll continue to lend my support to the speaker.” Still, the effort by Biden’s team to work through him underscores the improved reputation McConnell has among Democrats in the post-Donald Trump era and the long-standing relationship he and the president enjoy.
Biden beware: Manchin and Sinema align with Republicans in debt negotiations - Joe Manchin and Kyrsten Sinema saved the filibuster and cut down President Joe Biden’s agenda, delighting Republicans. Now they’re breaking with Democrats on the debt limit, and Republicans hope they keep it coming. The two centrists, who spent Biden’s first two years in office at odds with the left, are glaring outliers on the debt drama in the party’s 51-member Senate caucus. While their Democratic colleagues insist on no negotiations until the debt ceiling is lifted, Manchin and Sinema are not only pushing for a bipartisan deal but positioning themselves as potential players in any future Senate talks on a way out of the crisis. The Arizona independent and West Virginia Democrat have communicated that message in their own ways. Manchin has urged Biden to work directly with Speaker Kevin McCarthy and regularly puts out statements pushing for bipartisan talks that show up in GOP press releases. Sinema has quietly dined with McCarthy and signaled her hopes for a negotiated solution to GOP senators. Republicans say they follow Manchin and Sinema’s utterances closely and hope the duo is subtly speaking for other Democrats, too. “She’s trying to play a constructive role and try to get people to the table and understand that we can’t go over the brink on this,” said Senate Minority Whip John Thune (R-S.D.), who has spoken with Manchin and Sinema about the debt ceiling. “Manchin saying things like that is constructive and helpful. Hopefully helps his leadership realize ... a straight debt increase just is a nonstarter.” It’s too early for Manchin and Sinema to be negotiating a deal with Republicans — next week’s meeting between Biden and congressional leaders needs to play out first. But their clear push for a bipartisan solution is notable given how strongly they’ve resisted big portions of Biden’s agenda. And there’s always the possibility that one of the Senate’s familiar bipartisan “gangs” swoops in to craft a debt limit remedy. If Manchin and Sinema throw their weight behind a bipartisan discussion, they have big priorities that could be in the mix, from immigration to energy permitting. They’re both up for reelection next year, though neither has committed to running again.
Republican debt bill, climate cuts get Senate thrashing - How far apart are Republicans and Democrats on the debt limit crisis? Very, very far, if a Thursday hearing on the matter is any indication. On the Republican side, Sen. Mitt Romney of Utah scoffed that the proceedings of the Senate Budget Committee were “really embarrassing.” Sen. Roger Marshall of Kansas poked at Democrats in wanting to know who was America’s “climate god.” (He suggested two climate-focused former Democratic presidential nominees.) The man who convened the hearing, Chair Sheldon Whitehouse (D-R.I.), spent most of his time in attack mode on Republicans. He called the recently passed House GOP debt limit plan as one “cobbled together by House extremists in backrooms in the dark of night.” The sharp words came as the country zooms toward a debt default that may arrive as soon as June 1. If Congress cannot craft a solution to raise the country’s borrowing authority by then, expert witnesses said Thursday at the hearing, the fallout could be widespread and resonate for years. Specifically, those witnesses predicted mass job losses and climate devastation, among other calamities, if the House Republican debt limit proposal were to be signed into law. The warnings about H.R. 2811, the “Limit, Save, Grow Act” — the GOP plan that would raise the debt limit but cut clean energy tax credits that have spurred a domestic manufacturing boom and slash a fee on methane emissions that are toxic to the environment — provided plenty of ammunition for Democrats. The Budget hearing, provocatively titled “The Default on America Act: Blackmail, Brinkmanship, and Billionaire Backroom Deals,” was touted by Senate Democratic leadership as the first of what could be several hearings over the coming weeks to spotlight the House Republican product. The timing was also helpful for Democrats, as it offered a formal venue for a rebuttal in advance of a meeting scheduled at the White House between President Joe Biden and bipartisan congressional leaders. At that summit, Republicans are expected to double down on the House-passed plan, while Democrats will call for a “clean” debt ceiling increase. The Treasury Department warned on Monday that the nation could max out its borrowing authority as early as June 1. At the hearing, Mark Zandi, a chief economist for Moody’s Analytics, predicted June 8 would be the so-called X date for breaching the debt ceiling. In any event, time is running out to come up with a deal, and Democrats are building the case against Republican demands for spending cuts and policy riders.
Biden says Republicans are manufacturing a crisis over debt limit | (Reuters) - U.S. President Joe Biden sharply criticized 'MAGA' Republicans for their refusal to vote in a higher federal debt ceiling, signaling that there would be little compromise from the White House at a key May 9 meeting with congressional leaders. Republicans are "divided" on the debt ceiling, Biden said, speaking ahead of a meeting on U.S. investment at the White House, and so-called MAGA Republicans are pushing "draconian" cuts in the budget. “The last thing this country needs … is a manufactured crisis,” he said. Biden criticized House Republicans for threatening not to raise the debt limit unless Biden and Democrats agree to steep cuts in the upcoming budget. "The two are totally unrelated. When you pay the debt or not it doesn’t have a damn thing to do with what your budget" is, he said. Republicans and Democrats should be "debating our vision of the future" in front of the American people, he said. The May 9 meeting at the White House, with Republican House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, Republican Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell and top Democrats kicks off a frantic few weeks of negotiation before the U.S. runs out of money to pay its bills as soon as June 1.
McConnell warns he won’t back debt-ceiling increase without ‘substantive’ reforms -Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) has signed onto a letter stating he and more than 40 members of the Senate GOP conference will not back “any bill that raises the debt ceiling without substantive spending and budget reforms,” according to sources.The letter is addressed to Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) and would be McConnell’s clearest statement to date about what he is willing to support to avoid a national default next month when the federal government is projected to run out of money.“The Senate Republican conference is united behind the House Republican conference in support of spending cuts and structural budget reform as a starting point for negotiations on the debt ceiling,” the letter states. “As such, we will not be voting for cloture on any bill that raises the debt ceiling without substantive spending and budget reforms,” it warns.The letter is being led by conservative Sen. Mike Lee (R-Utah), who wants to ensure that Republicans can sustain a filibuster of a clean bill to raise the debt ceiling, which is what Democrats are demanding. Lee announced Saturday afternoon that 43 GOP senators have signed on. “It is now clear that Senate Republicans aren’t going to bail out on Biden and Schumer, they have to negotiate. I thank my colleagues for joining my effort to emphasize this point in the clearest possible terms,” he said.A source familiar with the effort said McConnell worked behind the scenes to gin up support for the letter. McConnell’s office declined to comment. The signatories include McConnell’s entire leadership team: Senate Republican Whip John Thune (S.D.), Republican Conference Chairman John Barrasso (Wyo.), Policy Committee Chairwoman Joni Ernst (Iowa), Conference Vice Chairwoman Shelley Moore Capito (R-W.Va.) and National Republican Senatorial Committee Chairman Steve Daines (Mont.). McConnell, who worked out a deal with Senate Democrats in 2021 to raise the debt limit, has previously said the current debt-limit negotiations should be handled entirely by President Biden and Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.).“In this situation, and I’ve been a through a few of these debt-ceiling dramas, there is no solution in the Senate. We have divided government,” he told reporters on Tuesday. “The American people gave the Republicans the House, the Democrats have the presidency.”“The president and the Speaker need to reach an agreement to get us past this impasse,” he added.
It's Not Funny Because It's True: Biden Jokes About Never Taking Questions And Doing Nothing --Joe Biden attempted to do stand up comedy over the weekend, and it went much as you would expect. Biden was appearing at the annual White House Correspondent’s dinner, which bizarrely seems to have become the only time where everyone just drops the bullshit and says what they really think. “In a lot of ways, this dinner sums up my first two years in office — I’ll talk for ten minutes, take zero questions, and cheerfully walk away,” Biden declared. There’s something profoundly disturbing about a senile decrepit President being ordered to read from a telepromter for laughs that he is incapable of performing the job. Humor works when it reveals a truth. This is just an obvious fact. Sad times we are in.
Kirby Claims Whopping 100,000+ Russian Casualties In Bakhmut Alone - In a Monday press briefing National Security Council spokesman John Kirby issued a surprisingly high estimate of Russian casualties which he said took place since December fighting in the contested Donetsk city of Bakhmut. He said Russian forces have suffered over 100,000 total casualties - including about 20,000 soldiers killed in combat and another 80,000 wounded. He explained that these figures were based on "information and intelligence that we were able to corroborate over a period of of some time."While presenting these figures he said that the Russian advance in Donetsk and Luhansk provinces had "failed" - despite most international estimates currently indicating Russia holds 80-90% of Bakhmut at this point. "Most of these efforts have stalled and failed," Kirby said. "Russia has been unable to seize any real strategically significant territory. ""The only area where Russia has made some incremental gains — and I want to focus on the word ‘incremental’ — is Bakhmut," Kirby acknowledged. "That really holds, as we've said before, very little strategic value for Russia. The capture of Bakhmut would absolutely not alter the course of the war in Russia's favor, and Ukraine's defenses in the areas surrounding Bakhmut still remain strong."He also said that some half of the 20,000 Russians killed there had been fighting on behalf of Wagner."Folks he [Wagner Group founder Yevgeny Prigozhin] went knocking around on the doors in prison cells throughout Russia to throw human flesh at this fight," Kirby said of a months-long recruitment drive by Wagner, controversially focused on Russian prisons. But when pressed, the NSC spokesman refused to give casualty numbers for the Ukrainian side. "I'm not ever going to put anything out in the public domain that's going to make their job harder," Kirby said. "They are the victims here. Russia is the aggressor."While very clearly Bakhmut has for months been a tragic "meat-grinder" for both sides, the US could be offering this staggering and large Russian casualty count of 100,000 in order to establish a 'pyrrhic victory' narrative. Kirby admitted the Russians are winning in Bakhmut, but wants to paint a picture of it losing the overall conflict given the massive cost and sacrifice for Bakhmut.
Kremlin Says US Estimate on Russian Losses 'Plucked from Thin Air' - Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Tuesday that US estimates of Russian losses in Ukraine had no basis and were “plucked from thin air.”His comments came after the White House estimated Russia suffered 100,000 casualties over the last five months, including 20,000 killed. The White House offered no estimate on Ukrainian losses.Peskov said that the US had no way to obtain the correct data on Russian casualties. The White House claimed about half of the casualties were fighters for the mercenary outfit Wagner Group, which has been doing much of the fighting in Bakhmut.Both Russia and Ukraine have kept a tight lid on their casualties in the war. Last fall, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Mark Milley said both sides likely suffered over 100,000 casualties, but the numbers have not been confirmed.When Pentagon documents allegedly leaked by Jack Teixeira first gained public attention, slides surfaced with vastly different casualty estimates. One slide said 16,000 to 17,500 Russian soldiers had been killed while as many as 71,500 Ukrainian troops were killed, but US officials claimed to the media that the slide was altered on Russian Telegram channels. The other slide showed the Pentagon estimated between 35,500-43,000 Russians were killed in action, and 15,500-17,500 Ukrainian troops were killed.
US to send Ukraine another $300M in weapons ahead of spring offensive -- The Biden administration will send Ukraine another $300 million in lethal aid, including significant amounts of artillery and mortar rounds, ahead of an expected spring counteroffensive against Russia, the Pentagon announced Wednesday. In a press release, the Defense Department said the package includes additional ammunition for High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS), additional howitzers, rounds of ammunition and anti-armor capabilities “that Ukraine is using to push back against Russia’s unprovoked war of aggression.” The arsenal also includes Hydra-70 rockets, projectiles fired from aircraft, Carl Gustaf anti-armor rifles and TOW missiles, all to be pulled from Pentagon stocks. The U.S. announcement comes less than a week after Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov said that “preparations are being finalized” for the coming offensive and that they were “mostly ready.” On Monday, he followed up by saying the operation’s success would be based on “the availability of weapons; prepared, trained people; our defenders and defenders who know their plan at their level, as well as providing this offensive with all the necessary things — shells, ammunition, fuel, protection, etc.,” according to The Associated Press. Wednesday’s announcement marks a total of $36 billion in military aid from the U.S. to Ukraine since Russia first attacked in February 2022. It is also the 37th Presidential Drawdown package of weapons and equipment, a designation for aid pulled from existing Pentagon stocks.
Russia Says Ukraine Tried to Kill Putin in Drone Attack - The Russian government said Wednesday that Ukraine tried to kill President Vladimir Putin in a drone attack that targeted the Kremlin and that Russia has the right to respond “whenever and wherever it sees fit.”According to the Russian news agency TASS, the Kremlin was targeted early Wednesday morning by two drones that were taken down and destroyed by “electronic warfare systems.” No casualties were reported, and Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Putin was elsewhere at the time of the attack.“The Russian president was not harmed as a result of the terrorist attack. His schedule has not changed and continues as usual,” Putin’s press service said.For their part, Ukrainian officials denied any role in the attack. “I can repeat this message. I think it will be clear to everyone. We don’t attack Putin or Moscow. We fight on our territory, we defend our cities and villages,” Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said from Helsinki.
Russia says US masterminded drone attack on Kremlin - Russia on Thursday accused the US of masterminding a drone attack on the Kremlin and said sabotage attacks by Ukraine behind Russian lines had reached “unprecedented momentum”. The Kremlin has said Ukraine carried out the attack with two drones aiming to kill President Vladimir Putin — a charge which Kyiv has denied. “Decisions on such attacks are not made in Kyiv, but in Washington,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said. “Kyiv only does what it is told to do.” “Washington should understand clearly that we know this,” he said. Peskov said Putin was working in his office in the Kremlin as normal on Thursday but added that security measures in Moscow would be beefed up following the attack, which the Kremlin said occurred in the night between Tuesday and Wednesday. “Of course, everything will be strengthened. Everything has already been strengthened in preparation for the Victory Day parade” on May 9, he said. Russia has also reported a series of drone attacks on oil facilities and train derailments, blaming Ukraine. “The terrorist and sabotage activities of the Armed Forces of Ukraine are gaining unprecedented momentum,” the Russian foreign ministry said in a statement. It added that Russia “reserves the right to take retaliatory measures.”
Kremlin 'lying' about U.S. involvement in Moscow drone strikes, officials say - Several U.S. officials pushed back on Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov’s accusation that Washington coordinated drone attacks on Moscow with Ukraine, emphasizing that the United States had no involvement in the Wednesday morning attack. “I can assure you that there was no involvement by the United States. Whatever it was, it didn’t involve us,” National Security Council spokesperson John Kirby said on MSNBC when asked about Peskov’s comments. “We had nothing to do with it. Peskov is just lying there, pure and simple.” On CNN soon after, he called it a “ludicrous claim.” The allegations are “completely false,” Defense Department spokesperson Lt. Col. Garron Garn told POLITICO. “The U.S. was in no way involved.” The Biden administration still doesn’t have a leading theory on who was behind the drone attack or why it occurred, and the U.S. is still unclear how the event will change the war, if at all, a U.S. official told POLITICO. “We still don’t know what happened here,” another U.S. official said. Both officials were granted anonymity to discuss sensitive internal intelligence matters. Peskov’s accusation came after two drones struck Moscow at around 2 a.m. Wednesday in what Russia immediately characterized without evidence as an assassination attempt on Russian President Vladimir Putin by Ukraine. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy denied the accusation, and U.S. officials said they had no advanced knowledge of the attacks. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said that he’d take any claims coming from the Kremlin with a “large shaker of salt.” Peskov reportedly said during a press conference earlier Thursday that “attempts to disown this, both in Kyiv and in Washington, are, of course, absolutely ridiculous. We know very well that decisions about such actions, about such terrorist attacks, are made not in Kyiv but in Washington. “Kyiv only does what it is told to do,” Peskov said.
The Kremlin Did Not Kill Itself: Notes From The Edge Of The Narrative Matrix – Caitlin Johnstone -- Western mass media are saturating the airwaves with the narrative that Wednesday’s drone bombing of the Kremlin was a “false flag”, by which they mean that Russia did it to themselves to advance some nefarious agenda. False flags are a thing and they do happen, but to act like that’s the most likely explanation for the Kremlin bombing when Russia is currently at war with a neighbor who has the means, motive and opportunity is something only a propagandist would do. Especially when oligarchs from that neighboring nation are openly incentivizing people to attack Russia with drones for cash rewards, when Zelensky’s coinciding absence from the country prevented immediate retaliation, and when Atlantic propagandists are writing enthusiastically about the sophisticated drone facilities they visited in Ukraine. In 2017 I was temporarily suspended by Facebook for posting an article about known false flags, because until 2022 mainstream narrative managers considered false flags to be a crazy crackpot concept. That changed the moment the idea became useful to western propagandists.When this changed in early 2022 it initially took journalists by surprise, because until then they’d only ever heard “false flag” used to dismiss people like Alex Jones: I say we arm Russia against Russia. If it’s bombing its own government buildings, its own pipelines, its own captured power plants, then it’s the best proxy force against Russia we’ve got. Send the Russians tanks and F-16s immediately. Russia’s fighting Russia over there so we don’t have to fight Russia over here.
US Arms Makers Vow Closer Cooperation With Taiwan - A group of US weapons makers attended the Taiwan-US Defense Industry Forum in Taipei on Wednesday and pledged to increase cooperation with Taiwan.The event marks the first time since 2019 that the US arms industry sent a delegation to Taiwan and comes at a time of soaring tensions between the US and China over the island.The forum was attended by 30 defense contractors, including Lockheed Martin and Raytheon, and a former senior US Marines Corps officer, retired Lt. Gen. Steven Rudder.“We want to be part of the self-defense capabilities of Taiwan,” Rudder said in a speech at the event. He called for closer cooperation between the US and Taiwanese militaries, saying the “endgame” is “joint interoperability.”The US and Taiwan have taken significant steps recently to increase military ties, including the deployment of 200 US troops to Taiwan for training. The deployment marks the largest-known US military presence on the island since Washington severed diplomatic relations with Taipei in 1979.Taiwan is also looking to begin joint production of arms with American companies. Taiwanese contractors attended the forum and said they could work with the US on fighter jets and drones.The steps the US and Taiwan have taken to increase military and diplomatic ties anger China, which has put Taiwan under more military pressure in response. Ahead of the forum, Beijing issued a strong warning against such cooperation.“These ‘military-industrial complexes’ of the United States have always been keen to sell arms around the world, export wars and seek windfall profits,” said Chinese Defense Ministry spokesman Tan Kefei. “The Democratic Progressive Party authorities’ practice of bringing wolves into the home is repugnant and will only bring a deep disaster to Taiwanese compatriots.”
Reminder: The Media Once Bashed Trump For Transgressing The One-China Policy The US Now Spits On – Caitlin Johnstone - The US has been increasingly treating Taiwan like a sovereign nation with whom diplomatic relationships and alliances can be formed, in violation of its longstanding One-China policy that has kept the peace for decades. And I just think it’s worth noting that the western media who’ve lately been condoning these moves became outraged at Donald Trump just a few years ago for doing the same thing to a far lesser degree.After his victory in the 2016 presidential election but before taking office, Trump received a phone call from Taiwanese president Tsai Ing-wen, in transgression of Washington’s longstanding policy of declining to acknowledge the sovereignty of Taiwan’s government. This position was enshrined back in the seventies during Washington’s efforts to normalize relations with Beijing in order to pull it away from Moscow during the last cold war, reversing its previous Guaido coup-like policy of insisting that China’s true government was in Taiwan.The reaction from the mass media was adversarial and immediate. “Donald Trump insults China with Taiwan phone call,” said a headline from CNBC. “Trump’s phone call with Taiwan president risks China’s wrath,” warned The Guardian. “This Is Why Trump’s Taiwan Call Was Truly Bizarre,” said Vanity Fair. “Trump may have just thrown decades of US-China relations into disarray,” exclaimed Vox. “Trump-Taiwan call breaks US policy stance,” said the BBC. “We have what’s called a One-China policy, where we recognize there’s only one Chinese government,” MSNBC’s Rachel Maddow told her audience after the news of Trump’s phone call broke. “And it took us a long time to get there. It sounds rational now, but it took us a long time — it took us decades to get there — and that’s where we are. And Donald Trump apparently took that silverware drawer out of the kitchen cabinet today and turned it upside down over his head and just started shaking the silverware to see what happens. It took decades to develop the ground on which we talk to China, and Donald Trump tore it up today.” And yet now we’re seeing dramatically more aggressive erosion of Washington’s One-China policy than a president-elect answering a phone call, all without the mass media blinking an eye. Two successive House speakers have now had physical visits with Tsai Ing-wen, with Nancy Pelosi visiting Taiwan last August and Kevin McCarthy meeting with Tsai in Washington a few weeks ago. President Biden has unequivocally stated that the US would go to war against China to defend Taiwan from an attack by the PRC, and his Director of National Intelligence later confirmed that this is indeed the new position of the US government.
The Single Dumbest Thing The Empire Asks Us To Believe – Caitlin Johnstone --The single dumbest thing the US-centralized empire asks us to believe is that the military encirclement of its top two geopolitical rivals is a defensive action, rather than an act of extreme aggression.We’re asked to believe many extremely stupid narratives by the manipulators who rule over us, but I really think this one might take the cake. The idea that the US militarily encircling Russia and China is an act of defense rather than aggression is so in-your-face transparently idiotic that anyone who thinks critically enough about it will immediately dismiss it for the foam-brained nonsense that it is, yet it’s the mainstream narrative in the western world, and millions of people accept it as true. Because that’s the power of US propaganda.It gets more and more absurd the more you think about it. Their argument is basically, “No no you don’t understand, the US has been hurriedly surrounding its primary geopolitical competitors with war machinery because it wants to prevent them from doing something aggressive.” They’re like, “We can’t just have nations exerting military aggression willy nilly, that’s why we needed to move all this war machinery to the other side of the planet onto the borders of our primary strategic rivals.” Can you think of anything more insane than that? Than all of the most powerful and influential figures in politics, government and media simultaneously claiming that a nation amassing heavily-armed proxy forces on the borders of their enemies is something that should be regarded as an action designed to prevent aggression, rather than an incendiary act of extreme aggression in and of itself?
US tracking another mystery balloon – media -The US military has been tracking another flying object over the Pacific Ocean, NBC News reported on Monday citing three unnamed US officials. What was described as a “mysterious balloon,” had flown over Hawaii and is currently headed towards Mexico.What exactly the object may be, or who it belongs to, was not clear, the anonymous officials told NBC. Its flight path over the islands did not take it over any “sensitive” military areas. The Pentagon has been tracking the object since “late last week,” and the military believes it poses no threat to air traffic or US national security. The suspected balloon does not appear to be maneuvering, or sending out any signals, according to one official. The US is still working on identifying the object and its owner. The military reportedly does not believe it is Chinese in origin at this time.Reports of another balloon in US airspace comes almost three months after the American military shot down a “Chinese spy balloon” off the coast of South Carolina. The object was first spotted over northern Montana, triggering concerns about Beijing spying on US nuclear silos. The order to shoot it down came only after it had flown across the entire continental US, and descended to where air force jets could reach it. It was also NBC that reported additional claims about the balloon early last month, also citing three anonymous officials. According to the trio, the balloon was piloted remotely so China could make “multiple passes”over certain sites to collect signals intelligence, and accelerated after being discovered so it would get out of US airspace faster.Beijing described the balloon as a weather probe that drifted off course, denied all allegations that it was used for spying, and demanded the return of any debris the US recovered. China also accused the US of “overreaction” to the flying object.The frenzy over “spy balloons” led to the US and Canada shooting down several more aerial objects in February. One turned out to be a toy balloon belonging to a Michigan hobbyist society, a $200 device sent to circumnavigate the globe for fun. The Sidewinder missile used to shoot it down cost at least $470,000.
US President Biden to make bullying visit to Papua New Guinea - In a significant ratcheting up of the pressure on all the Pacific island countries to line up behind United States imperialism’s intensifying confrontation with China, US President Joe Biden will make the first-ever visit by a US president to Papua New Guinea (PNG) this month. Biden will meet with a gathering of more than a dozen Pacific island leaders during a stop in Port Moresby, the capital of PNG. This strategically critical and resource-rich archipelago, just north of Australia, became a key battleground, along with the rest of the southwest Pacific, during both world wars. Biden will make the unprecedented visit on May 20, in between a G-7 summit in Japan, which will focus on the US-led war against Russia in Ukraine, and a meeting in Sydney of the leaders of the anti-China Quad—the US, India, Japan and Australia—which will be preoccupied with escalating the military and economic offensive against China. The US president will take advantage of an India-Pacific islands forum in PNG organised by Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who has turned India into a frontline base for conflict with China. Modi’s event, to be held a day after Biden’s visit, is a display of the Indian ruling class’s assertion of greater power, as a US partner, throughout the Indo-Pacific region. The US government’s Voice of America underscored the menacing nature of Biden’s meeting with the Pacific islands leaders. “The meeting would be a significant move in US efforts to push back against Chinese inroads in the region, and follows Biden hosting Pacific island leaders at the White House in September,” it reported. An editorial in today’s Australian sent a similar message. “China would be unwise to ignore the significance” of the Biden and Modi trips, it declared. “The meetings and the Quad summit serve notice that the days when Beijing believed it would have things its own way across the region are over.” That warning turns reality on its head. Throughout the post-World War II period, having defeated Japanese imperialism in bloody battles across the region, US governments have treated the Pacific as America’s “lake.” For the most part, the US outsourced oversight of the southwest Pacific to its local imperialist allies, Australia and New Zealand, which mostly seized colonial control over the island territories, including German New Guinea, during World War I.
Biden Signs Executive Order to Impose Sanctions on Sudan - President Biden on Thursday signed an executive order expanding his authorities to impose sanctions on Sudan over the conflict that broke out between rival generals on April 15. Forces loyal to Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, Sudan’s army chief and de facto leader, have been fighting with the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), led by Mohamed Hamdan Dagal, known as Hemedti. The two military leaders have agreed to several ceasefires, but the fighting has not stopped. In a statement, Biden said the conflict in Sudan “must end.” His order gives him sweeping authorities to sanction any person or entity the US determines is “involved in activities that threaten the peace, security, and stability of Sudan.” The order said the “situation in Sudan, including the military’s seizure of power in October 2021 and the outbreak of inter-service fighting in April 2023, constitutes an unusual and extraordinary threat to the national security and foreign policy of the United States.” The order said it is US policy to “support a transition to democracy and civilian transitional government in Sudan, to defend such a transitional government from those who would prevent its initial formation through violence.” The Pentagon has been helping evacuate people from Sudan, and so far, over 1,000 American citizens have left. On Thursday, the Pentagon said the role of US troops in the country is set to change as the US expects the fighting to continue, but declined to say what the changes will be. Three US naval ships are off the coast of Sudan, and one has been transporting people across the Red Sea to Saudi Arabia.
Biden Says 'Journalism Is Not a Crime' as He Seeks Assange's Extradition - Over the weekend, President Biden declared “journalism is not a crime” at the White House Correspondents’ Dinner, a statement that rings hollow as his Justice Department is seeking the extradition of WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange for exposing US war crimes.Biden opened his speech by discussing Evan Gershkovich, a reporter for The Wall Street Journal who was recently arrested in Russia. “Evan went to Russia to shed light on the darkness that you escaped from years ago,” Biden said, addressing Gershkovich’s parents.Biden also mentioned Austin Tice, an American who disappeared in Syria in 2012 while working as a freelance journalist. The US accuses the Syrian government of holding him, an allegation Damascus denies. “Tonight, our message is this: Journalism is not a crime,” Biden said.The president did not mention Assange or Shireen Abu Akleh, a Palestinian-American journalist for Al Jazeera who was killed by Israeli forces in May 2022. She was gunned down by Israeli forces while covering an Israeli raid in the West Bank and wearing a blue vest with “PRESS” written on it.Biden’s speech came after a group of progressive Democrats led by Rep. Rashida Tlaib (D-MI) sent a letter to Attorney General Merrick Garland urging the Justice Department to drop the charges against Assange, who faces up to 175 years in prison if convicted in the US.“We write you today to call on you to uphold the First Amendment’s protections for the freedom of the press by dropping the criminal charges against Australian publisher Julian Assange and withdrawing the American extradition request currently pending with the British government,” Tlaib and the other lawmakers said.Assange is being charged for publishing documents leaked to him by former Army Private Chelsea Manning on the Iraq and Afghanistan wars. The WikiLeaks founder obtained the documents using standard journalistic practices, and his conviction under the Espionage Act would set a very dangerous precedent.
Manchin tries again on permitting overhaul -Senate Energy and Natural Resources Chair Joe Manchin is relaunching his quest to overhaul the nation’s permitting laws Tuesday by reintroducing his proposal that capsized last year. The West Virginia Democrat’s bill, dubbed the “Building American Energy Security Act of 2023,” largely matches the language and provisions of a negotiated measure that failed to advance in the last Congress. Manchin said the base text would serve as a starting point for further Senate negotiations. “There is overwhelming bipartisan recognition that our current permitting processes aren’t working, and equally bipartisan support for addressing it through comprehensive permitting reform legislation,” Manchin said in a statement. “I am confident that we will find a path forward.” The bill’s introduction comes as Congress continues informal talks on overhauling the nation’s permitting laws. While the House passed a partisan bill, H.R. 1, in March that included permitting reforms and some hearings have been held in the Senate, there has been little momentum thus far to advance a serious negotiated agreement. Whether Manchin’s bill gets the ball rolling on that front is up for debate. Among its provisions, the bill would look to speed up the time for environmental reviews by setting a two-year shot clock on agencies to complete their work. It would also enable projects to seek legal enforcement of that timeline should agencies blow through the deadline. The bill would set a 150-day statute of limitations for legal challenges against an issued permit, along with a host of other changes to accelerate the legal review process. Critical to Democratic support, the bill also contains a section dedicated to expanding and bolstering the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission’s ability to site and permit interstate transmission lines. Crucially for Manchin, the legislation would once again authorize the controversial Mountain Valley pipeline, a natural gas effort that runs through his state. Though it is more than 90 percent completed, it has run into multiple legal problems related to environmental reviews. Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm recently endorsed the project’s authorization, even as progressives have raged against its completion. Manchin’s attempt at permitting overhaul last year ultimately succumbed to pressure from both the left and right. Progressives rebelled against what they saw as an attack on environmental protections in favor of fossil fuel infrastructure. Republicans mostly refused to engage on an effort that was the result of Manchin’s earlier backing of what became the Inflation Reduction Act. The issue came to a head in December as Manchin forced a vote on the bill as an amendment to the annual national Defense policy bill. The amendment failed, although it did attract seven Republican senators.
Manchin's 'playing with fire' — and some Democrats are tired of the drama - Sen. Joe Manchin is losing patience with his fellow Democrats over their signature climate law — and the feeling is mutual.The West Virginia Democrat has spent weeks escalating his attacks on President Joe Biden’s implementation of the Inflation Reduction Act, the sweeping bill that Manchin helped write in a deal that stunned Washington last summer. Last week, he threatened to join Republicans in voting to repeal the law, as the House GOP is demanding in its legislation for raising the nation’s debt limit.Manchin’s comment caught his caucus colleagues off guard, even if such a repeal would be a long shot in Congress. It came just as Biden was launching a reelection campaign that rests heavily on that legislation’s climate and health care provisions.“That surprises me that he wants to repeal it. I think it’s one of his greatest accomplishments,” said Sen. Angus King (I-Maine), a close colleague of Manchin’s on the Energy Committee, in an interview.The IRA is far less of a political bright spot for Manchin, whose potential reelection hopes are clouded by growing disapproval ratings in his home state, partly driven by his support for the law. Manchin has yet to announce whether he’s running, but a formidable challenger entered the West Virginia Senate race last week — GOP Gov. Jim Justice.Manchin’s fellow Democrats understand that his reelection could determine whether they retain their slim 51-seat Senate majority in 2024. But they are also growing weary of his attacks against their marquee climate law — even if they’ve come to expect it and know there’s little they can do to change his mind. And his votes against Democratic policies and Biden nominees have already complicated his party’s agenda in the 51-49 Senate.Some Democrats fear that Manchin’s criticisms will do real damage by confusing the public about one of the law’s most debated-provisions: its$7,500 tax credits for electric vehicles. He has accused the Treasury Department of violating the law by flouting strict provisions he wrote designed to force electric vehicles to be made in the U.S. with American-made parts.“When you’re Joe Manchin it never hurts to be seen butting heads with the administration, but I think this is genuine umbrage over the fact Congressional intent seems pretty clear, even if the statutory construction left room for Treasury to maneuver,” said Liam Donovan, a lobbyist with the firm Bracewell who previously worked for the National Republican Senatorial Committee. “And given that he would not have been on board for the bill at all had this been the understanding, it reads as a personal betrayal.”
Debt ceiling deadline opens path for permitting - News that the federal government faces a debt limit deadline far sooner than previously expected could give supporters of overhauling the nation’s permitting process a rare boost: an actual deadline to complete negotiations. It’s an open question whether lawmakers can reach a permitting deal within that time frame, and senators on Tuesday were split on what could be achievable by June 1. Still, a firm deadline gives them ambition to compromise.Sen. Shelley Moore Capito (R-W.Va.), the ranking member of the Environment and Public Works Committee, who has been speaking with members of both parties on permitting legislation, was optimistic Tuesday about leveraging the truncated timeline to land a deal.“If that’s one of the things that remains on the table, which would be great, then I think we can get it together; I do,” Capito told E&E News. “We are having hearings. We’ve had negotiations last year on all of this. This is not a new topic for us.”Members of Congress would have just under four weeks to wrap up what has already been a complicated debate over permitting. Add onto that an already difficult and hyperpartisan debt ceiling back-and-forth, in which Republicans are insisting on a whole host of policy riders and Democrats say the final product must be “clean.” And even if party leaders can reach a permitting agreement, rank-and-file progressive Democrats could scuttle it, as they have in the past, on grounds it could undermine environmental protections.House Republican leaders’ demands that permitting overhaul language be part of any deal to extend the nation’s borrowing authority, however, could emerge as the only bipartisan compromise Democrats could accept — and open a pathway on what is expected to be one of few must-pass bills moving through Congress over the next year and a half.Capito and Senate Energy and Natural Resources ranking member John Barrasso (R-Wyo.) are due to introduce their permitting overhaul proposal later this week, Barrasso told E&E News.The introduction would mark the third such proposal from the main negotiators on a permitting deal. On Tuesday, ENR Chair Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) reintroduced the “Building American Energy Security Act” to speed up environmental reviews and limit the window for litigation. The House GOP’s plan for accelerating energy project permitting would involve making dramatic changes to the National Environmental Policy Act. Republicans included the text of this proposal in the debt limit bill they passed last week: H.R. 2811, the “Limit, Save, Grow Act.”“It’s not like we haven’t been talking about permitting reform for a long time, so I think we know where people are,” Sen. Kevin Cramer (R-N.D.) told reporters. “It’s all about the incentive to do it, and June 1 creates an incentive to do something quickly and work more than 2 ½ days a week.”
Exclusive: Nine Senate Democrats say solar-tariff resolution would be ‘devastating blow’ to solar industry - Nine Senate Democrats warned against a bipartisan resolution to resume tariffs on solar imports in a letter shared exclusively with The Hill. In the letter, set to be published Wednesday, the senators expressed support for President Biden’s two-year moratorium on duties for solar imports from four Southeast Asian countries. The House on Friday voted 221-202 in favor of a Congressional Review Act (CRA) resolution to resume the tariffs. The Senate version, scheduled for a vote Wednesday, is likely to pass, with at least four Democrats joining the Republicans in voting for the bill: Sens. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.), Bob Casey (D-Pa.), Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio) and Ron Wyden (D-Ore.). Proponents of the resolution have said the tariffs are vital to protecting American solar manufacturing. However, both the Biden administration and the nine Democrats say the reprieve of the tariff suspension is necessary to allow the U.S. to build up enough solar infrastructure to reduce that dependence. The letter was led by Sen. Jacky Rosen (D-Nev.), a longtime ally of the domestic solar industry, and joined by Sens. Dianne Feinstein (D-Calif.), Martin Heinrich (D-N.M.), John Hickenlooper (D-Colo.), Catherine Cortez Masto (D-Nev.), Michael Bennet (D-Colo.), Sheldon Whitehouse (D-R.I.), Tom Carper (D-Del.) and Chris Van Hollen (D-Md.).“By voting to pass this misguided resolution, Congress would deal a devastating blow to the American solar industry, which will kill jobs, raise energy costs, and decrease our ability to achieve clean energy independence,” the senators wrote.
Biden allies join Republicans in vote to resume solar tariffs - The Senate on Wednesday voted 56-41 to override President Biden’s two-year suspension of tariffs on solar imports from four Southeast Asia countries. The resolution, sponsored by Sens. Rick Scott (R-Fla.) and Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.), is the Senate version of a measure that passed the House on Friday in a 221-202 vote. Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) was the sole Republican to vote against the resolution in the upper chamber. While Manchin has joined several Republican-led Congressional Review Act (CRA) resolutions on energy and environmental rules in the past, this resolution also drew the support of Democratic Sens. Tammy Baldwin (Wis.), Sherrod Brown (Ohio), Bob Casey (Pa.), John Fetterman (Pa.), Gary Peters (Mich.), Debbie Stabenow (Mich.), Jon Tester (Mont.) and Ron Wyden (Ore.). Manchin, Tester and Brown are all red-state Democrats up for reelection next year. Wyden and Casey have generally been consistent votes for Biden’s environmental agenda. “I support full enforcement of U.S laws that defend American workers and manufacturers against trade cheating, especially when it comes to clean energy,” Wyden said in a statement to The Hill prior to the vote. “Suspending tariffs on Chinese solar cells and modules that have been determined by the Department of Commerce to be circumventing U.S. trade laws will make America less competitive in the clean energy economy.” Meanwhile, Sen. Jacky Rosen (D-Nev.), one of the Senate’s most vocal proponents of the pause, spoke out against the resolution on the floor, calling the moratorium a “bridge” that’s essential to the U.S. solar industry. “We can’t cut off supply of imported solar panels by enacting massive, retroactive tariffs that will just kill solar projects; it will kill American jobs, and it will hurt American workers,” Rosen said.
Senate rebukes Biden on solar tariffs, prairie chicken rules - The Senate found bipartisan consensus Wednesday by passing two resolutions rolling back President Joe Biden’s energy and environment agenda. The chamber approved by a 56-41 vote a measure overturning a Commerce Department decision to delay new tariffs on solar imports from Asia. Nine Democrats joined all but one Republican. Later in the evening, the Senate also passed a resolution, 50-48, that would end Endangered Species Act protections for the lesser prairie chicken. Senate Energy and Natural Resources Chair Joe Manchin of West Virginia was the lone Democrat to join the Republican majority. Advertisement The twin rebukes to the president’s agenda were remarkable. Under the Congressional Review Act, recently finalized administration rules can be disapproved via simple majorities in both chambers. Nevertheless, both actions will be met with a presidential veto pen. The solar resolution from Sen. Rick Scott (R-Fla.), S.J. Res 15, would end a two-year pause on new tariffs on solar components from Asian countries. The Commerce Department found Chinese companies are avoiding existing tariffs by shipping products through other nations. Solar installers and clean energy advocates said new tariffs now would be a setback for renewable energy production. The Solar Energy Industries Association lobbied lawmakers last year to pressure Commerce for the pause. But the resolution passing in both the House and Senate means a majority of lawmakers are on the record supporting tariffs as a means to promote U.S. manufacturing — even if it means canceled solar projects. “In the end, it’s a simple choice,” said Banking Chair Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio), whose state is home to a large solar manufacturing plant. “Are you on the side of the Chinese Community Party, or are you on the side of American workers?” Brown, Manchin, Finance Chair Ron Wyden (D-Ore.), Aging Chair Bob Casey (D-Pa.), Veterans’ Affairs Chair Jon Tester (D-Mont.), Agriculture Chair Debbie Stabenow (D-Mich.), Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Chair Gary Peters (D-Mich.), and Sens. John Fetterman (D-Pa.) and Tammy Baldwin (D-Wis.) voted for the resolution. “These are tariffs that give China an unfair competitive advantage,” Peters said. “We want to build the industry in America. We want Americans to be building solar cells.” Missing the vote were Sens. Dick Durbin (D-Ill.), Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) and Dianne Feinstein (D-Calif.), the latter of whom has been out for medical reasons.
Senate sends bipartisan rebuke of solar tariff policy to Biden's desk - The Senate voted 56 to 41 on Wednesday to rescind the Biden administration’s two-year pause on tariffs for imports of solar equipment from four Southeast Asian countries — a rare bipartisan rebuke of the president’s energy and trade policies. The vote sends the resolution to President Joe Biden’s desk, where it faces a certain veto. But its passage underscores the tricky politics that vulnerable Democratic lawmakers must navigate between reaching U.S. clean energy targets and taking a hard line on Chinese influence. A Republican Senate sponsor of the resolution also accused lawmakers who side with the administration of supporting forced labor in China. Nine Democrats voted in support of the resolution, which passed the House last week with bipartisan support. One Republican senator voted against the measure. The resolution would use the Congressional Review Act to rescind Biden’smoratorium on new tariffs for solar cells and modules from Malaysia, Thailand, Cambodia and Vietnam. The rule was issued as the Commerce Department investigates whether companies are circumventing existing U.S. tariffs on China by funneling products through those four countries.Commerce issued preliminary findings in December that said Chinese companies were indeed circumventing the tariffs, and its final determination is due later this year. But given the two-year pause, no new tariffs resulting from the probe can be levied until mid-2024.The resolution resurfaced long-running tensions on the Commerce probe. Solar industry officials who oppose the resolution warn it carries a threat of retroactive duties that will cost jobs, shut down planned solar projects and undercut the Biden administration’s climate goals.
Are new solar tariffs coming soon? Here’s what you need to know -- The fight to impose new tariffs on the U.S.’ main source of solar panels is moving forward in Congress — but it’s more likely to produce fodder for campaign ads than policy change.On Friday, the U.S. House of Representatives voted 221–202 to overturn President Biden’s two-year pause on new tariffs for solar panels produced in four Southeast Asian countries. The effort is motivated by a combination of tough-on-China bravado and made-in-America protectionism, with the stated goal being to bolster U.S. solar manufacturing.But it wouldn’t be good for U.S. solar deployment. Solar farms are expected to account fornearly half of new U.S. power plant capacity added this year, and those installations rely heavily on panels manufactured by the Asian countries that dominate the global solar supply chain. In 2021, about 80 percent of new solar panels used in U.S. installations were imported, and of those imports, about 80 percent came from Cambodia, Malaysia, Thailand and Vietnam. New tariffs would decimate the astounding growth of this clean energy sector, and in the process potentially derail the decarbonization of the world’s second-largest emitter of CO2. Last Friday’s vote represents the first — and lowest — hurdle in the Republican-led race to reinstate the solar tariffs, but the effort is unlikely to clear the final bar needed to repeal Biden’s moratorium.Canary Media has covered the back and forth over new solar tariffs extensively since it began last spring. We’ve pulled together five questions and answers to help you understand what’s happening with solar tariffs now and what it all means.
Companies Flock to Biden’s Climate Tax Breaks, Driving Up Law’s Cost - President Biden’s signature climate law appears to be encouraging more investment in American manufacturing than initially expected, powering what’s expected to be a surge in new factory jobs and domestic clean energy technologies, according to independent forecasters. If the boom in new battery factories, wind and solar farms, electric vehicle plants and other investments is sustained, the law could prove even more effective than administration officials had hoped at reducing the fossil fuel emissions that are dangerously heating the planet. But all that new economic activity centered around green technology is also driving up costs for taxpayers, who are subsidizing the investments.When Democrats passed the Inflation Reduction Act last August, the Congressional Budget Office estimated that the law’s climate and clean energy tax credits would cost roughly $391 billion between 2022 and 2031. But the budget office’s updated score, based on estimates from the Joint Committee on Taxation, found that the clean energy tax breaks would cost at least $180 billion more than originally forecast over that time period.Other experts and investment banks have estimated that the law’s energy provisions could end up costing as much as $1.2 trillion over the next decade.In just eight months since Mr. Biden signed the bill, companieshave announced plans to invest at least $150 billion in clean energy projects, including at least 46 new or expanded large-scale factories making everything from wind turbine towers to electric vehicle batteries.Some companies planned their projects before the climate law passed and would have built them regardless. But others have cited the law as a catalyst, such as Hanwha Qcells, a South Korean solar company, which in January announced it would build a $2.5 billion manufacturing complex in Georgia.
Industry pushes back against Biden rules on climate disclosure - The Biden administration is struggling over rules that would force U.S. corporations to disclose more information about their climate risks and greenhouse gas emissions, from pizza deliveries and steel manufacturing to financial services and making cement. If approved, the rules would affect government contractors, insurance firms and other companies and would enable the administration to better track and cap the carbon dioxide and methane emissions that contribute to climate change. It could also transform the purchasing practices of the federal government, which spends about $650 billion each year on goods and services, more than any other entity. “Number one, the entire sustainability agenda is built on the premise that we have to lead by example, right?” Brenda Mallory, chair of the Council on Environmental Quality at the White House, said at a recent Washington Post Live event. “We are the largest employer in the nation. We have the most real estate in the nation, and so these all give us tools that are really important for us to take advantage of.”Yet as the administration leans into the climate disclosure campaign — led by the Securities and Exchange Commission, the General Services Administration and the Treasury Department’s Federal Insurance Office — it is facing broad opposition from companies, as well as House Republicans and industry-funded groups that oppose Biden’s climate agenda.Supporters of the new rules fear that the agencies, facing the likelihood of lawsuits, might end up watering down or delaying their disclosure actions. Robert J. Jackson Jr., a former SEC commissioner and now a law professor at New York University, said Thursday that the SEC might wait months, delaying from April until the fall. Many companies say the disclosure rules are too expensive, complicated and far-reaching. At the same time, many climate activists fear that federal agencies, swamped by comments, are overreacting to corporate pressure and may water down or delay disclosure requirements, some of which are already behind schedule.
Biden steps up attack on asylum seekers in advance of Title 42 expiration - On Thursday, the Biden administration announced changes to immigration rules that significantly escalate the assault on the rights of migrants seeking to enter the US at the southern border. The changes, which are being prepared before the May 11 expiration of Title 42 rules put in place in 2020 by the Trump administration and continued by Biden to carry out mass deportations, involve declaring nearly all migrants crossing the border “illegal” and deportable to Mexico or their home countries. A centerpiece of the policy is the establishment of “regional processing centers” in Latin American countries, where immigration officials will attempt to block migrants from beginning their journey to the US by declaring them ineligible for asylum. Additionally, the White House plan says that those who still attempt to cross the US border and seek asylum without applying in another country first will be immediately deported without access to a proper hearing. In a joint press conference at the State Department, Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Director of Homeland Security Alejandro Mayorkas explained that the measures were being taken to stem an expected surge of migrants at the southern border when Title 42 is lifted in two weeks. Title 42 rules had allowed the US government to expel hundreds of thousands of migrants on grounds that they posed a public health risk during the coronavirus pandemic. The xenophobic policy was put in place in March 2020 by then-president Trump while his administration simultaneously denied that COVID-19 posed any threat whatsoever within the US. In his remarks on Thursday, Mayorkas made it clear that the new policy is an extension and intensification of Trump’s anti-immigrant program. He said: “Beginning on May 12th, we will be—we will place eligible individuals who arrive at our southern border in expedited removal proceedings.” Mayorkas went on to explain that the new rules will be more severe and migrants will be banned for five years and prosecuted for attempting to enter the US. “Unlike the Title 42 public health authority,” he said, “the penalty for being removed from the United States under Title 8 through expedited removal and other immigration laws we will be enforcing is not just removal. An individual who is removed is subject to at least a five-year ban on admission to the United States and can face criminal prosecution for any subsequent attempt to cross the border illegally.”
Graham warns of migrant 'surge' as Title 42 deadline looms – POLITICO Video
US readies second attempt at speedy border asylum screenings (AP) — President Joe Biden scrapped expedited asylum screenings during his first month in office as part of a gutting of Trump administration border polices that included building a wall with Mexico. Now he’s preparing his own version. Donald Trump’s fast-track reviews drew sharp criticism from internal government watchdog agencies as the percentage of people who passed those “credible fear interviews” plummeted. But the Biden administration has insisted its speedy screening for asylum-seekers is different: Interviews will be done exclusively by U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services, not by Border Patrol agents, and everyone will have access to legal counsel. The decision to use fast-track screenings comes as COVID-19 asylum restrictions are set to expire on May 11 and the U.S. government prepares for an expected increase in immigrants trying to cross the border with Mexico. Normally, about three in four migrants pass credible fear interviews, though far fewer eventually win asylum. But during the five months of the Trump-era program, only 23% passed the initial screening, while 69% failed and 9% withdrew, according to the Government Accountability Office. Those who get past initial screenings are generally freed in the United States to pursue their cases in immigration court, which typically takes four years. Critics say the court backlog encourages more people to seek asylum. To pass screenings, migrants must convince an asylum officer they have a “significant possibility” of prevailing before a judge on arguments that they face persecution in their home countries on grounds of race, religion, nationality, political opinion or membership in a social group. Under the Biden administration’s fast-track program, those who don’t qualify will be deported “in a matter of days or just a few weeks,” Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas said Thursday. The expedited screenings will be applied only to single adults, Mayorkas said. Despite the administration’s assurances that people will have access to legal services, some immigrant advocates who were briefed by the administration are doubtful. Katherine Hawkins, senior legal analyst at the Project on Government Oversight, noted that advocates were told attorneys would not be allowed inside holding facilities.
'Unacceptable': Top Dem rips Biden plan to send 1,500 more troops to southern border - A top Senate Democrat is hammering a plan to send another 1,500 active-duty troops to the southern border, calling it “the militarization of the border” and “unacceptable.” “There is already a humanitarian crisis in the Western Hemisphere, and deploying military personnel only signals that migrants are a threat that require our nation’s troops to contain,” Sen. Bob Menendez (D-N.J.), chair of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, said in a statement Tuesday afternoon. “Nothing could be further from the truth.” He was reacting to Tuesday’s news that the Biden administration is planning a temporary military border deployment to assist agents ahead of an expected influx of migrants seeking asylum. The move comes as Title 42, the public health law that permits the U.S. to deny asylum and migrations claims for public health reasons, is set to expire on May 11. Some senior U.S. officials say the end of Title 42 could entice more people seeking a better life in America to present themselves at the U.S.-Mexico border. “The administration has had over two years to plan for the eventual end of this Trump-era policy in a way that does not compromise our values as a country,” Menendez said. “I have offered them a strategic and comprehensive plan, which they have largely ignored. Trying to score political points or intimidate migrants by sending the military to the border caters to the Republican Party’s xenophobic attacks on our asylum system.” The service members, mainly coming from Army units, will not have a law enforcement role. They will be armed for self-defense but will be performing monitoring and administrative tasks only, freeing up Border Patrol officials to process migrant claims, officials said. Pentagon announces plan to send 1,500 troops to the border The additional troops, which are being sent to fill a request from the Department of Homeland Security, will fill “critical capability gaps,” including detection and monitoring, data entry and warehouse support. They will be there for up to 90 days, after which military reservists or contractors will do the work.
US to finalize rule to limit asylum access at Mexico border by May 11 (Reuters) - The U.S. will finalize by May 11 a new regulation that will deny asylum to many migrants caught crossing the U.S.-Mexico border illegally, the same day sweeping COVID-19 restrictions at the border are set to end, Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas said on Friday. Under the new regulation, migrants will be presumed ineligible for asylum if they passed through another country en route to the U.S. without seeking protection or if they failed to use other legal pathways to the United States. The measure is a key part of U.S. President Joe Biden's plan to address an expected rise in illegal immigration when COVID restrictions known as Title 42 end next week, along with the broader pandemic public health emergency. The administration is encouraging migrants to use legal pathways to enter the country or face new, sped-up deportation processes that will come with the implementation of the asylum rule. Title 42 was first implemented in March 2020 at the beginning of the pandemic to stem the spread of the coronavirus in crowded detention settings. It allows border agents to rapidly expel many migrants to Mexico. Its repeal is expected to lead to a rise in border arrivals as a result of pent-up demand and the perception among migrants that they will be allowed in. The anticipated increase in border crossings will be "extremely challenging," Mayorkas said during a press conference in Brownsville, Texas. The Mexican government will step up border security in southern Mexico as part of an agreement reached this week, Mayorkas said. Mexico's Defense Ministry said it did not have information on the matter. Migrant arrests at the U.S.-Mexico border have risen in recent weeks, which Mayorkas attributed to a spike in Venezuelan crossers. Also ahead of Title 42's end, the Biden administration is expanding access to CBP One, an app that allows migrants to schedule an appointment to approach a border port of entry.
Sinema and Tillis pitch two-year border patch as Trump-era policy expires - A Trump-era policy is set to expire next week, sparking warnings of an increase of migrants along the southern border. And now, a bipartisan pair of senators is trying to buy the Biden administration more time. Sens. Kyrsten Sinema (I-Ariz.) and Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) are working on legislation that would grant a temporary two-year authority to expel migrants from the United States similar to what is currently allowed under Title 42, a law that permits the U.S. to deny asylum and migration claims for public health reasons, a Sinema aide told POLITICO. The aide noted that a key distinction is that the extension being proposed by Tillis and Sinema, which was first reported by POLITICO, does not rely on a public health order, making it functionally different from the Trump-era program that Biden kept in place. The legislation would provide protections for migrants whose return to their home countries would threaten their life, freedom, or expose them to torture. It also provides protections for migrants with acute medical needs, according to a Sinema aide. The legislation would need at least 60 votes to pass the Senate, making it all but guaranteed that it won’t pass before Title 42’s expiration, and it faces an uphill climb more broadly in a chamber that has struggled in recent years to find consensus on border and immigration issues. And it comes as the House is set to vote on its own sweeping border and immigration proposal next week. But it’s not meant to be a response to that bill — with aides and senators involved noting that Sinema, Tillis and others are holding broader talks on a separate track — but instead is in response to the looming May 11 date for the expiration of the Trump-era authority. Graham warns of migrant 'surge' as Title 42 deadline looms SharePlay Video The end of Title 42 has sparked fierce criticism from Republicans, as well as warnings from some Democrats who worry that the administration doesn’t have the resources positioned along the U.S.-Mexico border to be able to process an increase in migrants seeking entry into the United States.
Florida GOP passes sweeping anti-immigration bill that gives DeSantis $12 million for migrant transports - — Florida Republicans on Tuesday handed Gov. Ron DeSantis another legislative victory after lawmakers signed off on a sweeping anti-immigration measure that will guarantee millions of dollars more for a controversial program the governor used to fly migrants from Texas to Martha’s Vineyard. DeSantis, who is expected to announce a run for president in the coming weeks, has repeatedly faulted President Joe Biden’s immigration policies and regularly criticizes the administration’s handling of the surge of migrants crossing into the U.S. at the southern border. The governor and his Republican allies contended that the newly approved bill will send a “message” to the Biden administration, while Democrats countered the legislation was overtly cruel and intimidating to migrants. House lawmakers approved the measure after debating for 90 minutes, culminating with bill sponsor Rep. Kiyan Michael, a Jacksonville Republican who was elected last year, recounting how someone who had entered the country illegally had killed her 21-year-old son in a car accident while he was driving to the bank to cash his paycheck. “The price of illegal immigration cost us everything,” said Michael, who won a GOP primary last year with the help of an endorsement by DeSantis. “There is not an ounce of malice in my heart … I just want it to stop.” But Rep. Susan Valdes, a Tampa Democrat whose parents immigrated from Cuba, contended the bill “demonized marginalized people.” “Immigrants are people just like us except they did not have the fortune to be in the United States,” Valdes said. Republicans have pushed immigration into the spotlight during the Biden administration, highlighting the thousands of asylum seekers that have attempted to cross into the country. Texas GOP Gov. Greg Abbott has bused hundreds of migrants to cities like Chicago, New York and Washington, D.C., straining city resources in those blue strongholds. Florida also saw a huge influx of migrants when hundreds of Cuban and Haitian asylum seekers landed in the Florida Keys by boats in December and January, forcing DeSantis to activate the state national guard to respond. DeSantis has repeatedly pushed anti-immigration measures during his time in office, starting with a push for legislators to ban “sanctuary cities” and culminating with this year’s comprehensive bill. The legislation lawmakers passed Tuesday would require medium-sized and large employers to use the federal E-Verify system to check the status of new employees and mandates hospitals to ask patients about their legal status. The bill, S.B. 1718, will also allow authorities to charge someone with human trafficking if they knowingly transport an undocumented migrant across state lines. It would also prohibit an undocumented immigrant from driving a car even if they have a driver’s license from another state.
‘El Chapo’ sons charged with smuggling cheap fentanyl to US - (AP) — With Sinaloa cartel boss JoaquÃn “El Chapo” Guzmán serving a life sentence, his sons steered the family business into fentanyl, establishing a network of labs churning out massive quantities of the cheap, deadly drug that they smuggled into the U.S., prosecutors revealed in a recent indictment. Although Guzmán’s trial revolved around cocaine shipments,the case against his sons exposes the inner workings of a cartel undergoing a generational shift as it worked “to manufacture the most potent fentanyl and to sell it in the United States at the lowest price,” according to the indictment unsealed April 14 in Manhattan. Synthetic opioids — mostly fentanyl — now kill more Americans every year than died in the Vietnam, Iraq and Afghanistan wars combined, feeding an argument among some politicians that the cartels should be branded terrorist organizations and prompting once-unthinkable calls for U.S. military intervention across the border.“The problem with fentanyl, as some people at the State Department told me, has to be repositioned. It’s not a drug problem; it’s a poisoning problem,” said Alejandro Hope, a security analyst in Mexico, who died Friday. “Very few people go out deliberately looking for fentanyl.”
Muslim New Jersey mayor denied entry to White House calls for Biden end to 'discriminatory' practices - — The longest-serving Muslim Mayor in New Jersey on Tuesday called on the Biden administration to stop the use of “discriminatory” security practices that he said target Muslim Americans after he was abruptly blocked from joining a White House celebration to mark the end of Ramadan. Prospect Park Mayor Mohamed Khairullah, a Democrat who has served as mayor of that North Jersey borough the past 17 years, said he was within minutes of entering the White House for a celebration of Eid al-Fitr on Monday when he was told he was not cleared by the Secret Service to attend the event. A specific reason was not given, he said. Khairullah — who said he faced racial profiling in the past — said that the scenario was due to his name allegedly being on a federal government “watch list.” The Council on American-Islamic Relations New Jersey chapter provided reporters with leaked records they said proved Khairullah was on such a list, which they described as arbitrary and discriminatory. “At this point, our crimes are our names, ethnicities, and religion,” Khairullah said during a Tuesday afternoon press conference. “I call on President Biden to correct the injustices of the previous administrations by disbanding this illegal list and correcting ill-advised and racist policies.” “I have no due process to clear my name,” he added. “This is an unintelligent dragnet.” When reached for comment by POLITICO Tuesday, Secret Service spokesperson Anthony Guglielmi said in a statement that Khairullah was denied entry to the White House event, where President Joe Biden gave remarks, but was “not able to comment further on the specific protective means and methods used to conduct our security operations at the White House.” Khairullah said that “such inconveniences and harassment are not uncommon” for him. In 2019, Khairullah said he was held up for hours at JFK International Airport in New York and asked if he knew any terrorists and was forced to turn over his phone.
Nearly three-quarters of Americans blame media for dividing nation, poll says (AP) — When it comes to the news media and the impact it’s having on democracy and political polarization in the United States, Americans are likelier to say it’s doing more harm than good. Nearly three-quarters of U.S. adults say the news media is increasing political polarization in this country, and just under half say they have little to no trust in the media’s ability to report the news fairly and accurately, according to a new survey from The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research and Robert F. Kennedy Human Rights. The poll, released before World Press Freedom Day on Wednesday, shows Americans have significant concerns about misinformation — and the role played by the media itself along with politicians and social media companies in spreading it — but that many are also concerned about growing threats to journalists’ safety. “The news riles people up,” said 53-year-old Barbara Jordan, a Democrat from Hutchinson, Kansas. Jordan said she now does her own online research instead of going by what she sees on the TV news. “You’re better off Googling something and learning about it. I trust the internet more than I do the TV.” That breakdown in trust may prompt many Americans to reject the mainstream news media, often in favor of social media and unreliable websites that spread misleading claims and that can become partisan echo chambers, leading to further polarization.
Biden picks Neera Tanden as top domestic policy adviser (Reuters) - U.S. President Joe Biden picked a senior aide, Neera Tanden, to replace Susan Rice as his domestic policy adviser, the White House said in a statement. Tanden, a longtime Democratic aide who served in two prior presidential administrations, will take on one of the most senior policy jobs in the administration, covering most areas outside of national security and the economy. As Biden's staff secretary, Tanden already played a major role in the West Wing, controlling the schedules, briefing books and other paperwork that reach the president's desk. Stefanie Feldman, an aide to Rice who has long been a top policy mind in Biden's orbit, will replace Tanden as staff secretary. "Neera oversaw decision-making processes across my domestic, economic and national security teams," Biden said in a statement touting 25 years of public policy experience. "She was a key architect of the Affordable Care Act and helped drive key domestic policies that became part of my agenda, including clean energy subsidies and sensible gun reform."
Senators urge US Postal Service to delay rural worker compensation plan (Reuters) - Six U.S. senators on Friday urged the U.S. Postal Service (USPS) to delay implementing a new compensation system that they said would cut pay for tens of thousands of rural postal delivery workers. The senators -- Democrats Ron Wyden, Elizabeth Warren, Sherrod Brown, Ed Markey and John Fetterman and independent Bernie Sanders -- in a letter to U.S. Postmaster General Louis DeJoy seen by Reuters said the automated Rural Route Evaluated Compensation System (RRECS) should not be used "until the system’s serious flaws are rectified." USPS and a union representing workers agreed last month the system would not take effect until at least Saturday. The union and USPS in 2012 had agreed to create a new system to determine compensation for rural carriers. They also asked how USPS "will reimburse rural carriers for lost earnings when the system makes an inaccurate determination about their routes" and for detailed answers to questions. USPS, in response, said the compensation system for rural letter carriers is nationally negotiated and codified in their labor agreement and that changes were the result of an arbitration proceeding. USPS added it would respond to the senators' letter. The letter from the senators said the system "will reduce the pay of 66% of carriers significantly, and for nearly 14,000 carriers, those cuts will exceed 8 hours of pay a week." The senators said rural letter carriers travel millions of miles daily providing essential services. "We understand the need to update the rural letter carrier route evaluation system and ensure that rural carriers are compensated for labor that has gone unaccounted for under the current system," the senators wrote, "but it is critical that USPS fixes the known issues with the system before implementation." The letter added that "at a time when USPS is struggling to deliver mail to rural areas, due in part to an inability to recruit rural letter carriers, we fear that RRECS’ impact on working conditions and pay will further deteriorate a vital service to our rural communities."
'It’s got everyone’s attention': Inside Congress’s struggle to rein in AI - The planet’s fastest-moving technology has spurred Congress into a sudden burst of action, with a series of recent bills, proposals and strategies all designed to rein in artificial intelligence.There’s just one problem: Nobody on Capitol Hill agrees on what to do about AI, how to do it — or even why.On Friday, Sen. Michael Bennet (D-Colo.) called for a task force to review the government’s use of AI and recommend new rules — an effort that’s either similar to, or totally different from, Rep. Ted Lieu’s (D-Calif.) idea for a commission on national AI rules. Those plans are both separate from government AI-disclosure rules that Rep. Nancy Mace (R-S.C.) is now drafting.Last Wednesday, Lieu, Sen. Ed Markey (D-Mass.) and a couple of other members introduced a bill to prevent a Terminator-style robot takeover of nuclear weapons — the same day that Senate Intelligence Committee ChairMark Warner (D-Va.) sent a barrage of tough letters to cutting-edge AI firms. Leaders on the House Energy and Commerce Committee — egged on by the software lobby — are debating whether they should tuck new AI rules into their sprawling data privacy proposal. And in mid-April, Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer dramatically entered the fray with a proposal to “get ahead of” AI — before virtually anyone else in Congress was aware of his plan, including key committee leaders or members of the Senate AI Caucus. The legislative chaos threatens to leave Washington at sea as generative AI explodes onto the scene — potentially one of the most disruptive technologies to hit the workplace and society in generations.
The CDC will end “community level” COVID tracking with the end of the public health emergency - The ending of the Public Health Emergency in the United States on May 11 means that the tracking of COVID-19 at the “community level” by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) will also come to an end, according to anonymous sources speaking with CNN. In short, COVID-19 will be included in a host of other respiratory viruses like RSV, parainfluenza and the flu that are tracked through participating hospitals in limited regions. The present flu surveillance network coverage, per the CDC, “includes more than 70 counties in 13 states that participate in the Emerging Infections Program and the Influenza Hospitalization Surveillance Program—California, Colorado, Connecticut, Georgia, Maryland, Michigan, Minnesota, New Mexico, New York, Ohio, Oregon, Tennessee, and Utah.” As the COVID-19 tracking comes to an end, it is expected that it will have similar monitoring, meaning the state of the pandemic will become utterly opaque. The “community level” tracking had been adopted last February 2022, on the wake of the massive BA.1 Omicron wave. It shifted the public health data collection from daily rates of infection to focus on number of hospitalizations and resources available to the local health systems. Overnight, maps glowing in red or magenta colors were transformed into pale green and yellow regardless of the rates of infections. Under these new threat guidelines, masks were no longer recommended, ushering in the process that has culminated to the ending of the public health emergency this month. At the time, the CDC was severely criticized by many public health specialists, who warned that it was undermining real-time data on the state of the pandemic and minimizing the risk it posed to communities everywhere across the country. The ending of the fraudulent “community level” tracking, so that COVID infections which are no longer being tracked in any meaningful manner, apparently means nothing to the public health agency. Only when a person contracts COVID-19 and develops severe disease and requires treatment as an in-patient admission to a hospital, only then is data collected at specific participating health systems and reported to the CDC, which in turn will update their anemic and circuitous webpage without any real guidance on what such data means for the public’s safety. Throughout the pandemic, it has been repeated by almost every epidemiologist and public health expert that hospitalizations are a “lagging indicator” of community spread. Such information on the recent past offers no public health advantage for the population. It is tantamount to driving a hazardous road all the while looking in the rearview mirror for your bearings.
Disease detectives gathered at CDC event—a COVID outbreak erupted -- Disease detectives with the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention are on the case of a new COVID-19 outbreak—the one at their very own conference, which has sickened around 35 attendees as of Tuesday.Last week, the CDC hosted the 2023 Epidemic Intelligence Service (EIS) Conference in Atlanta, the first time the conference has been held in person since 2019. The annual event, which dates back seven decades, was fully virtual last year and was canceled entirely in 2020 and 2021 while EIS officers were immersed in the pandemic response."The COVID-19 pandemic has been hard on everyone and especially for our public health workforce. … We are thankful you are back with us at the EIS conference," EIS leaders wrote in the preface of this year's conference agenda, celebrating the return of the in-person gathering.But signs of trouble turned up quickly. Several attendees reportedly tested positive during the conference, which spanned Monday, April 24 to Thursday, April 27, and drew about 2,000 participants. Some told The Washington Post that moderators at the conference warned several times about positive cases. CDC spokesperson Kristen Nordlund told Ars in an email that EIS leaders noted the cases during the closing session of the conference. The conference leaders also canceled an in-person training, emailed all officers with current CDC guidance, and offered to extend the hotel stays of sick attendees who needed to isolate, according to the Post.On Friday, April 28, a CDC branch chief emailed staff about the potential outbreak. The email, obtained by the Post, read: “We’re letting you know that several people who attended the EIS Conference have tested positive for COVID-19." The email said that at least one person at a recruiting event on Wednesday had tested positive.
CDC's Rochelle Walensky resigns, citing pandemic transition (AP) — Dr. Rochelle Walensky, the head of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, submitted her resignation Friday, saying the waning of the COVID-19 pandemic was a good time to make a transition. Walensky’s last day will be June 30, CDC officials said, and an interim director wasn’t immediately named. She sent a resignation letter to President Joe Biden and announced the decision at a CDC staff meeting.Walensky, 54, has been the agency’s director for a little over two years, and the announcement took many health experts by surprise. In her letter to Biden, she expressed “mixed feelings” about the decision and didn’t explain exactly why she was stepping down, but said the nation is at a moment of transition as emergency declarations come to an end. The World Health Organization said Friday that COVID-19 no longer qualifies as a global emergency, and the U.S. public health emergency will expire next week. Deaths in the U.S. are at their lowest point since the earliest days of the coronavirus outbreak in early 2020.The CDC, with a $12 billion budget and more than 12,000 employees. is an Atlanta-based federal agency charged with protecting Americans from disease outbreaks and other public health threats.
U.S. Supreme Court takes up fishermen's fight over US conservation funding (Reuters) - The U.S. Supreme Court on Monday agreed to decide whether the government can require commercial fishermen to help fund a program monitoring herring catches off New England's coast in a case that could undercut the regulatory power of federal agencies. The justices took up an appeal by New Jersey-based fishing companies of a lower court's ruling in favor of the U.S. government in a challenge to a conservation program overseen by the National Marine Fisheries Service. The program was begun in 2020 under former President Donald Trump and is being defended by President Joe Biden's administration. The case is the latest bid asking the Supreme Court, which has a 6-3 conservative majority, to rein in the authority of federal agencies. The companies are asking the Supreme Court to overturn its own decades-old precedent calling for judges to defer to federal agency interpretation of U.S. laws, a doctrine called "Chevron deference." The regulations called for certain fishermen to carry aboard their vessels U.S. government contractors and pay for their at-sea services while they monitored the catch. The New England herring fishing regulations were issued by the fisheries service, part of the U.S. Commerce Department. Amid concerns about overfishing and fishery management, the program aims to monitor 50 percent of declared herring fishing trips in the regulated area, with program costs split between the federal government and the fishing industry. The monitors assess the amount and type of catch including species inadvertently caught. The cost of paying for the monitoring services was an estimated $710 per day for 19 days a year, which could reduce a vessel's income by up to 20 percent, according to government figures. The Biden administration said in court papers that the monitoring program will be suspended for the fishing year starting in April due to insufficient federal funding.
Supreme Court to consider overruling Chevron doctrine - The Supreme Court on Monday announced it will hear a case that could significantly scale back federal agencies’ authority, with major implications for the future of environmental and other regulations. The justices next term will consider whether to overturn a decades-old precedent that grants agencies deference when Congress left ambiguity in a statute. Named for the court’s decision in Chevron U.S.A. v. Natural Resources Defense Council, the Chevron deference has become one of the most frequently cited precedents in administrative law since the decision was first handed down in 1984. It involves a two-step test: First, judges decide if Congress has in the statute directly spoken to the precise question at issue. If it is ambiguous, courts defer to agencies as long as their actions are based on a “permissible construction.” Some of the high court’s conservatives have raised concern about the precedent and how it has expanded the reach of agencies’ authority. Now, the justices will take up a case that explicitly asks them to overturn it. The high court announced the move on Monday in a brief, unsigned order — as is typical — indicating at least four justices agreed to take up the case. Herring fishing company Loper Bright Enterprises is appealing a ruling that left in place a National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS) regulation based on the doctrine. The regulation requires herring fishing boats to allow a federal observer aboard to oversee operations and compensate them for their time. The company argues the regulation significantly decreases their profit margin, and the agency had no authorization to impose it.
Supreme Court move could spell doom for power of federal regulators - A legal doctrine long despised by conservatives for giving federal regulators wide-ranging power is making yet another march to the gallows at the Supreme Court. The high court announced Monday that it is taking up a case squarely aimed at killing off the nearly-four-decade-old precedent that has come to be known as Chevron deference: the principle that courts should defer to reasonable agency interpretations of ambiguous provisions in congressional statutes and judges should refrain from crafting their own reading of the laws. Overturning the doctrine would have major implications for the Biden administration’s climate agenda. It would complicate the administration’s efforts to tackle major issues such as climate change via regulation, including possibly derailing the Environmental Protection Agency’s push to mitigate carbon emissions from the electricity and transportation sectors — the two highest polluting industries in the United States. The Supreme Court’s move is another signal that the court’s conservatives have not tired in their efforts to weaken the administrative state. The top target is the case that played a pivotal role in expanding the powers of federal agencies after it was handed down in 1984: Chevron v. Natural Resources Defense Council. The Chevron doctrine has “been in a coma for a while, so we’ll see whether they want to revive it or take it off life support,” said David Doniger, who in 1984 argued that case before the Supreme Court for the NRDC. The NRDC technically lost that case when the Supreme Court upheld a Reagan administration pollution rule as a reasonable interpretation of the law. But over the subsequent decades, the Chevron doctrine became a central pillar of administrative law and a key part of the legal defense for any number of environmental and other rules by both Democratic and Republican administrations. Although agencies did not win all the time, studies have shown more often than not the courts used it to uphold regulations.
US Supreme Court spurns challenge to Indiana abortion cremation or burial law (Reuters) - The U.S. Supreme Court on Monday declined to hear a challenge to the legality of an Indiana requirement that abortion providers bury or cremate embryonic or fetal remains following the procedure, sidestepping another dispute involving a contentious Republican-backed state policy concerning abortion. The justices turned away an appeal by an Indianapolis abortion clinic and two women who underwent abortions at the facility of a decision by the Chicago-based 7th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals to reinstate the state's requirement after a federal judge had invalidated it. A law signed in 2016 by Republican then-Governor and future U.S. Vice President Mike Pence imposed a requirement that clinics cremate or bury the tissue from abortions or miscarriages rather than using the standard method of incineration for human medical waste. The law, which the state's Republican Attorney General Todd Rokita said in court papers aimed to ensure the "respectful disposition of human remains," also lets patients dispose of the remains on their own. The plaintiffs argued that the law unconstitutionally compelled them to express the state's message that an embryo or fetus is a person and ran afoul of their moral or religious beliefs by treating embryonic tissue in the same manner as the remains of a deceased person. U.S. District Judge Richard Young found that the provision violated the challengers' religious freedom and free speech rights under the U.S. Constitution's First Amendment. But the 7th Circuit last year overturned that decision. The Supreme Court upheld Indiana's measure in 2019 in a separate challenge, concluding that the state had a legitimate interest in ensuring the proper disposal of fetal remains and it did not implicate the right of women to obtain an abortion.
U.S. Supreme Court to examine whistleblower claims against financial firms in UBS case (Reuters) - The U.S. Supreme Court on Monday agreed to examine how difficult it should be for financial whistleblowers to win retaliation lawsuits against their employers as the justices took up a long-running case involving Switzerland's UBS Group AG (UBSG.S). The justices will hear an appeal by Trevor Murray, a former UBS bond strategist, of a lower court's decision to throw out his 2021 lawsuit that accused the company of unlawfully firing him for refusing to publish misleading research reports and complaining about being pressured to do so. The appeal involves a technical but important issue - whether whistleblowers who sue their employers for retaliation under the federal Sarbanes-Oxley Act must prove that companies acted with "retaliatory intent." The New York-based 2nd U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals last year decided that Murray was required to meet that bar and failed, creating a split with four other federal appeals courts. Those courts have said that defendants in Sarbanes-Oxley cases can raise the lack of intent as a defense, but that plaintiffs do not have to prove employers acted with intent. A Supreme Court ruling in favor of UBS could significantly curtail financial whistleblower lawsuits because it is often difficult for plaintiffs to prove a defendant's motives. Robert Herbst, a lawyer for Murray, said the 2nd Circuit decision ignored the text of the whistleblower law, adding that he looked forward to arguing the case before the Supreme Court. A UBS spokesperson said, "We expect the court will uphold the 2nd Circuit's decision."
GOP senators call on Supreme Court to 'update' ethics oversight - Partisan cannon fire dominated Senate Democrats’ high-profile hearing Tuesday on Supreme Court ethics, but behind the bluster, some Republicans acknowledged the high court needed to address a spate of controversies about justices’ conduct. The Senate Judiciary Committee hosted the hearing to call for more formal ethical standards at the high court. Chair Dick Durbin opened the session by recounting recent reports that Justice Clarence Thomas accepted luxury travel via private jet and yacht from a Texas developer without declaring most of the hospitality on his financial disclosures and sold his mother’s home to the same developer without reporting the transaction. And while Republicans mostly came to Thomas’ defense, dismissing the hearing as a partisan spectacle aimed at the conservative majority, senior GOP senators also advised the court to provide more transparency and a move toward a better defined process to apply their ethical standards. “What I would urge the court to do is take this moment to instill more public confidence,” said South Carolina Sen. Lindsey Graham, top Republican on the Senate Judiciary Committee. “It does appear there needs to be better oversight,” said Sen. Chuck Grassley of Iowa, a previous chair of the panel, even as he dismissed the hearing as “political theater” and “relentless political battering.” “I think that they could update, refresh and address the concerns without requiring any Congressional action,” said Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.), adding that he hoped the hearing had been “instructive” to the high court. The hearing mostly illustrated the existing battle lines between the parties, with Democrats blasting the high court as bypassing common-sense standards. Chief Justice John Roberts had declined Durbin’s invitation to attend the hearing, clearly riling the chair. “How low can the court go?” Durbin asked, after listing various media reports that called justices’ conduct into question. “This is not the ordinary course of business. … We wouldn’t tolerate this from a city council member or an alderman. It falls short of ethical standards we expect of any public servant in America and, yet, the Supreme Court won’t even acknowledge it’s a problem.” But the hearing also amounted to a tacit admission from Durbin and Senate Democrats: Their best shot at getting justices to address simmering ethics concerns is to step up public pressure, given the tough environment for passing any legislation.
Jane Roberts, who is married to Chief Justice John Roberts, made $10.3 million in commissions from elite law firms, whistleblower documents show- Two years after John Roberts' confirmation as the Supreme Court's chief justice in 2005, his wife, Jane Sullivan Roberts, made a pivot. After a long and distinguished career as a lawyer, she refashioned herself as a legal recruiter, a matchmaker who pairs job-hunting lawyers up with corporations and firms. Roberts told a friend that the change was motivated by a desire to avoid the appearance of conflicts of interest, given that her husband was now the highest-ranking judge in the country. "There are many paths to the good life," she said. And life was indeed good for the Robertses, at least for the years 2007 to 2014. During that eight-year stretch, according to internal records from her employer, Jane Roberts generated a whopping $10.3 million in commissions, paid out by corporations and law firms for placing high-dollar lawyers with them. That eye-popping figure comes from records in a whistleblower complaint filed by a disgruntled former colleague of Roberts, who says that as the spouse of the most powerful judge in the United States, the income she earns from law firms who practice before the Court should be subject to public scrutiny. "When I found out that the spouse of the chief justice was soliciting business from law firms, I knew immediately that it was wrong," the whistleblower, Kendal B. Price, who worked alongside Jane Roberts at the legal recruiting firm Major, Lindsey & Africa, told Insider in an interview. "During the time I was there, I was discouraged from ever raising the issue. And I realized that even the law firms who were Jane's clients had nowhere to go. They were being asked by the spouse of the chief justice for business worth hundreds of thousands of dollars, and there was no one to complain to. Most of these firms were likely appearing or seeking to appear before the Supreme Court. It's natural that they'd do anything they felt was necessary to be competitive." Roberts' apparent $10.3 million in compensation puts her toward the top of the payscale for legal headhunters. Price's disclosures, which were filed under federal whistleblower-protection laws and are now in the hands of the House and Senate Judiciary committees, add to the mounting questions about how Supreme Court justices and their families financially benefit from their special status, an area that Senate Democrats are vowing to investigate after a series of disclosure lapses by the justices themselves.
Thomas' longtime friend acknowledges — but defends — Harlan Crow tuition payments - Mark Paoletta, a longtime friend of Supreme Court Justice Clarence Thomas and lawyer to his wife, acknowledged that GOP megadonor Harlan Crow paid private school tuition for Thomas’ great-nephew, but Paoletta said the justice did nothing wrong. A new ProPublica report published Thursday morning revealed that Crow spent thousands of dollars on private school tuition for Thomas’ relative, who he was raising “as a son.” Thomas didn’t disclose the tuition payments as gifts, and Paoletta argued disclosure wouldn’t have been necessary.The real estate magnate footed the $6,000-per-month bill for Hidden Lake Academy, a private school in Georgia, for one year, the ProPublica report said, and then paid for tuition at another boarding school in Virginia. It’s unclear how much Crow put down, but if he paid for all four years at the two schools, the bill would be more than $150,000, the report found.Thomas’ ties with Crow have come under a microscope ever since ProPublica reported last month that Crow had financed luxury vacations for the justice for over two decades, which Thomas did not report.
Clarence Thomas’s problems multiply at Supreme Court --Supreme Court Justice Clarence Thomas is facing a fresh round of scrutiny after the third blockbuster report in less than a month links him financially to GOP megadonor Harlan Crow.ProPublica reported Thursday that Crow, a Dallas-based real estate developer, paid thousands of dollars in tuition to a private boarding school for Thomas’s great-nephew, whom Thomas has said he raised “as a son.”Federal ethics laws require the justices to report gifts given to a “dependent child,” but that term is defined to only include the justices’ children or stepchildren. Thomas’s allies have insisted the payment doesn’t violate the disclosure law since it was for Thomas’s sister’s grandson.But the revelation has only added to the increasing pressure from Democrats for the justices to adopt a binding code of ethics.“Today’s report continues a steady stream of revelations calling Justices’ ethics standards and practices into question. I hope that the Chief Justice understands that something must be done—the reputation and credibility of the Court is at stake,” Senate Judiciary Committee Chair Dick Durbin (D-Ill.) said in a statement.When asked during a SiriusXM interview about impeaching Thomas, however, Durbin said “no.” He noted that only one justice, Samuel Chase, had been impeached previously, and Chase was acquitted in the Senate in 1805.“I don’t think an impeachment is in the works, particularly with the House in a political situation that it’s in today,” Durbin said on “The Briefing with Steve Scully.”Sen. Richard Blumenthal (D-Conn.), a Judiciary Committee member, argued the matter should be referred to the Department of Justice.“There’s a potential criminal violation in the misreporting or failure to report certain benefits, gifts and financial transactions. There’s just a drip, drip, drip of additional information that is gravely undermining the Court, but also creating the need for a full factual investigation,” Blumenthal said.“If [the Justice Department] fails to do so, Congress definitely has a role,” he added.Thomas did not return a request for comment through a court spokesperson.Later on Thursday, The Washington Post reported that Leonard Leo, a conservative judicial activist who played a key role in the Supreme Court’s rightward shift, directed tens of thousands of dollars be paid to Thomas’s wife, Ginni, roughly a decade ago.Leo requested that she not be named in the paperwork, according to the Post. Ginni Thomas, a conservative activist herself, has long insisted that she doesn’t talk about the court’s business with her husband.Judiciary Committee Democrats have been hamstrung on taking action regarding the court, including on a potential subpoena for Chief Justice John Roberts. He declined an invitation from Durbin to appear at a Tuesday hearing on Supreme Court ethics, noting that it is “exceedingly rare” for a chief justice to give testimony. That could change if Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D-Calif.), who has been absent for months due to shingles, returns and once again gives Democrats an 11-10 majority on the panel — though even then subpoenaing the chief justice of the Supreme Court would be an extraordinary step.
'Corruption. Plain and Simple': Ginni Thomas Took Secret Payments Ahead of Landmark Voting Rights Case - U.S. Supreme Court Justice Clarence Thomas and his wife Ginni Thomas are under fresh scrutiny as yet another revelation, this one reported by the Washington Post on Thursday evening shows Ginni received tens of thousands of dollars in off-the-book compensation from a powerful right-wing nonprofit shortly before the group "soon would have an interest before the court"—a pivotal voting rights case. Based on documents reviewed by the Post, right-wing judicial activist Leonard Leo used his role as an advisor to the nonprofit, the Judicial Education Project, to ask GOP pollster Kellyanne Conway, later a top aide to President Donald Trump, to pay Ginni Thomas a large sum but keep her name off the financial records."Leo, a key figure in a network of nonprofits that has worked to support the nominations of conservative judges," the reporting explains, "told Conwaythat he wanted her to 'give' Ginni Thomas 'another $25K,' the documents show. He emphasized that the paperwork should have 'No mention of Ginni, of course.'""Leonard Leo has written the definition of court corruption. These shady schemes are a call to action to bring about ethics reform at the highest levels of the judiciary." —Kyle Herrig, Accountable.USIn response to the new revelations, Kyle Herrig, president of the public interest advocacy group Accountable.US, said "Leonard Leo has written the definition of court corruption. These shady schemes are a call to action to bring about ethics reform at the highest levels of the judiciary."In defense of the secrecy of the payments to Ginni Thomas's firm—which according to the Post totaled $80,000 between June 2011 and June 2012, but may have been more overall—Leo said in a statement to the newspaper that it was necessary to keep her name out of any disclosures because of how "disrespectful, malicious and gossipy people" can be in the political sphere. "I have always tried to protect the privacy of Justice Thomas and Ginni," Leo claimed. Crucially, months after these payments were made to Ginni Thomas, the Judicial Education Project filed an amicus brief in the case Shelby County v. Holder, taking the side of those opposed to a key provision in the Voting Rights Act of 1965. As the Post notes:The court struck down a formula in the Voting Rights Act that determined which states had to obtain federal clearance before changing their voting rules and procedures. Clarence Thomas was part of the 5-to-4 majority. Thomas issued a concurring opinion in the case, arguing that the preclearance requirement itself is unconstitutional. Thomas's opinion, which was consistent with a previous opinion he wrote, favored the outcome the Judicial Education Project and several other conservative organizations had advocated in their amicus briefs. He did not cite the Judicial Education Project brief.But progressive political observers said the corruption was impossible not to see—especially given the wave of revelations about lavish gifts and financial arrangements between Justice Thomas and billionaire Harlan Crow, a right-wing mega-donor.
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez is calling on Dianne Feinstein to step down before the end of her term. politico video
AOC, Matt Gaetz introduce bipartisan bill banning Congress members from trading individual stocks - In a rare show of solidarity, an eclectic group of lawmakers including Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. D-N.Y., and Rep. Matt Gaetz, R-Fla., announced a bipartisan bill restricting members of Congress from trading individual stocks.Sponsored by GOP Reps. Gaetz and Brian Fitzpatrick, R-Pa., and Democratic Reps. Ocasio-Cortez and Raja Krishnamoorthi, D-Ill., the Bipartisan Restoring Faith in Government Act aims to block members of Congress, as well as their spouses and dependents, from trading individual stocks."The ability to individually trade stock erodes the public's trust in government," Ocasio-Cortez said in a statement. "When Members have access to classified information, we should not be trading in the stock market on it. It's really that simple."Gaetz echoed Ocasio-Cortez, stating concerns over insider trading "hang over the legislative process." "Members of Congress are spending their time trading futures instead of securing the future of our fellow Americans," Gaetz said in a statement. "Congress will never regain the trust of the American people. Our responsibility in Congress is to serve the people, not hedge bets on the stock market." Fitzpatrick noted the rarity of common ground from often-opposing caucuses in the House of Representatives. "The fact that Members of the Progressive Caucus, the Freedom Caucus, and the Bipartisan Problem Solvers Caucus, reflecting the entirety of the political spectrum, can find common ground on key issues like this should send a powerful message to America," Fitzpatrick said. "We must move forward on issues that unite us, including our firm belief that trust in government must be restored, and that Members of Congress, including their dependents, must be prohibited from trading in stocks while they are serving in Congress and have access to sensitive, inside information." Fitzpatrick continued. "And we all view this as a critical first step to return the House of Representatives back to the People. I thank Representatives Ocasio-Cortez, Gaetz, and Krishnamoorthi for joining me in this effort."
House OKs resolution overturning Biden solar tariff pause - The House approved legislation last Friday morning to repeal President Joe Biden’s two-year pause on news tariffs for Chinese manufacturers routing panels through Southeast Asian countries. H.J. Res. 39 cleared the House floor in a 221-202 vote, picking up 12 Democrats, despite solar installers saying new tariffs now would cripple the industry and undermine President Joe Biden’s climate goals. The Commerce Department delayed tariffs to give the solar industry time to prepare. Resolution backers say the pause gives Chinese manufacturers a leg up over companies that make solar components in the United States. “We cannot surrender to China or any other country and put American workers at a disadvantage,” said House Ways and Means Chair Jason Smith (R-Mo.) on the House floor. The Senate will take up the resolution as soon as next week and, under the Congressional Review Act, only needs a simple majority to reach the president’s desk. Biden has threatened to veto the resolution. Ways and Means Democrat Earl Blumenauer of Oregon spoke against the measure during debate, saying, “This resolution would undermine Americans’ hard-fought wins in the inflation reduction, although there are problems. No doubt the Chinese likely cheated, but President Biden stuck the right balance by instituting a temporary freeze on the solar tariffs.” Congress has so far sent the president two resolutions of disapproval — one on the waters of the U.S. rule and another on green investing. Biden vetoed both, and sponsors have failed to get enough votes to override the president. Observers have been wondering whether the solar tariff resolution could break that trend because lawmakers on both sides of the aisle are keen to see more domestic solar manufacturing. However, for now, the president seems poised to prevail. Not only did most Democrats stick with the administration, but eight Republicans voted against the resolution, including Republican Reps. Mariannette Miller-Meeks of Iowa and Andrew Garbarino and Marc Molinaro of New York. Democratic supporters included Reps. Marcy Kaptur of Ohio, John Garamendi of California, Terri Sewell of Alabama, Dan Kildee of Michigan and Ro Khanna of California. Several Democrats in the Senate have also expressed support, including Energy and Natural Resources Chair Joe Manchin of West Virginia, Finance Chair Ron Wyden of Oregon and Sens. Sherrod Brown of Ohio and Bob Casey of Pennsylvania.www.eene
Joe Biden Is Losing Young Climate Voters - Now that President Biden has made his 2024 run official, he has plenty of work to do if he hopes to shore up his lagging support among key constituencies. According to a recent NBC News survey, a full 70 percent of Americans do not want the President to run again. One demographic to watch is younger voters, who backed Biden by a wide 61-36 margin in 2020. Younger Americans are exceptionally aggressive and vocal on climate policies. Nearly two-thirds (62%), support phasing out fossil fuels entirely, said Alec Tyson, an associate director of research at Pew Research Center. According to a recent Harvard Kennedy School Institute of Politics poll, an amazing half of those polled prefer the government do more to curb climate change, even if U.S. economic growth is damaged in the process. As friendly as Biden has been to the eco-left, and outright hostile to our domestic, traditional energy industries, he is still facing backlash from these eco-centric voters over three recent decisions dealing with energy development. As always, my state of Alaska is at the epicenter. First, the President – through the Department of Interior – approved Alaska’s Willow oil and gas development project last month. His decision elicited a collective groan of disgust and disapproval from the environmental movement. They’d dedicated years opposing the project, and spent the weeks ahead of the final decision bombarding social media, protesting outside of the White House and using their extensive, inside access to stop Willow from progressing. Afterward, they vented.“Biden approved [Willow] knowing full well that it'll cause massive and irreversible destruction, which is just appalling, particularly coming from an administration who has pledged to address the climate crisis, has pledged to address environmental injustice, has pledged to address the extinction crisis,” said Kristen Monsell, a senior attorney at the Center for Biological Diversity, who, along with other activist organizations, promptly took legal action to oppose the decision. Next, Biden greenlit the export plan for Alaska Gasline Development Corp’s goal to build an 800-mile pipeline to bring trillions of cubic feet of gas from the North Slope to homes, businesses and eventually a tidewater port for export to Asia and other Pacific Rim countries. Having previously been held up under the guise of environmental and Indigenous justice reviews, the approval on April 14 gave a significant boost to the $43 billion project. Environmentalists went apoplectic. “Joe Biden’s climate presidency is flying off the rails,” said Lukas Ross of Friends of the Earth. Ross pointed out this was the second U.S. approval of a “fossil-fuel mega-project” in as many months. Finally, the tipping point for climate activists may have come on April 21, when Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm penned a letter to the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC), asking to “expeditiously” approve regulatory authorizations for the Mountain Valley Pipeline in West Virginia. Granholm noted the gas pipeline can "play an important role as part of the clean energy transition".Once again, green activists hit the roof, including former National Resources Defense Council (NRDC) attorney and current Congressman Jared Huffman (D-CA), who stated bluntly, “She (Granholm) sounds like a cheerleader for the fossil fuel industry; it’s really quite pathetic.”The same groups who previously cheered when the Green New Deal was introduced, celebrated when the Keystone Pipeline was shuttered and nearly danced in the streets when copper mines in Alaska and Minnesota were ruled off-limits to development are now blasting Biden for losing his way on what they see as an ‘existential threat’ to their survival, and turning his back on mankind.
Alarms raised over exiled Biden adviser’s likely return – POLITICO - TJ Ducklo is on the cusp of officially reentering Biden world in a senior communications role on his reelection campaign, according to four people familiar with the plans. More than two years after he resigned under pressure as White House deputy press secretary following threatening and abusive remarks he made to a then-POLITICO reporter, many of his former colleagues are rallying around him. They praise him as a loyal, talented operative who’s paid for his mistake and are expressing their enthusiasm about having him back in the fold.Others, however, are not.“It’s hard to believe that in the post-#MeToo, anti-bullying world we live in, that the president’s team would be this tone-deaf,” said Michael LaRosa, the former press secretary for first lady Jill Biden.“If true, it represents a stunning lack of judgment by those whom he entrusted to responsibly staff his reelection campaign. It’s not like there is a lack of Democratic talent in D.C. or across the country to choose from,” he said. “Hiring former personnel who embarrassed and humiliated him in his first three weeks in office and created an unnecessary distraction in the briefing room and for the first family feels counterintuitive to me.”
Antony Blinken accused of lying under oath over his contact with Hunter Biden | Fox News Video - Sen. Ron Johnson, R-Wisc., joined 'Sunday Morning Futures' to discuss questions concerning the Biden family's business dealings and why he believes Secretary of State Antony Blinken lied about his contact with Hunter Biden.
Hunter’s collapsing world: Why a criminal plea could now be the best option for the Bidens - Jonathan Turley -This week, Hunter Biden’s defense team traveled to Delaware seeking an update on the federal criminal investigation that has dragged on for almost five years. The reason seems clear: Time is running out on Hunter and the Biden family. After years of delaying disclosures and admissions, Hunter could now be pushing to cap off the criminal side of the scandal before more information is released in Arkansas and Washington. For the White House, even a criminal plea is preferred if they can avoid one particular claim — and they may be succeeding. For years, the Bidens have worked (with the media’s help) to delay any recognition of the influence peddling and corruption that may be revealed on Hunter Biden’s laptop. Even this week, in child support proceedings in Arkansas, Hunter’s counsel continued to refuse to admit ownership of the laptop abandoned at The Mac Shop in Wilmington, Del., in April 2019. These proceedings are now colliding for the Bidens. With the laptop being raised in Arkansas and being investigated in Washington by House committees, time is up and the Biden team knows it. An establishment of the laptop’s authenticity in one forum could produce cascading effects in the other forums. There has already been a recent shift to a scorched-earth strategy, including reportedly threatening possible witnesses and calling for the IRS to investigate critics. New leaks from the Justice Department investigation have indicated that prosecutors are considering four charges: two misdemeanor counts for failure to file taxes, a single felony count of tax evasion related to a business expense for one year of taxes and a potential felony count on falsifying a form linked to a gun permit. Those four charges could well result in jail time, but the situation is likely to get worse for Hunter if the House reveals new evidence of foreign dealings and payments. That is why a capstone plea could control the damage for both Hunter and his father. A capstone is designed to protect against erosion and even help to hold together an arch that might otherwise collapse. This capstone plea could avoid a worst scenario (and charge) that would undermine years of denials by both Bidens. However, there was one conspicuous omission from the list of potential charges that may also indicate a reason to push toward a plea. There is no mention of a charge as an unregistered foreign agent under the Foreign Agent Registration Act (FARA). The Justice Department aggressively used this charge against Trump figures like Paul Manafort and, if the same standard is applied, it is hard to see the basis for discarding the charge in the Hunter Biden case. The laptop shows emails from various foreign sources, including some with close connections to foreign governments and intelligence services. There are also records of visits of clients and business associates to the White House as well as pictures with then-Vice President Joe Biden. Finally, there are emails showing Hunter reached out to high-ranking officials like Antony Blinken for “advice.” Now our secretary of state, Blinken was then deputy secretary of state. However, a FARA charge would be embarrassing to both President Biden and Attorney General Merrick Garland. The claim that the president’s son was acting as a foreign agent would put a spotlight on the millions of dollars raised in alleged influence peddling. House Oversight Committee Chairman James Comer (R-Tenn.) has claimed that up to 12 Biden family members may have benefited from these foreign payments. Joe Biden was the object of that influence peddling, and the question would become what these foreign interests were seeking to get from their payments. Moreover, the most obvious reason not to register as a foreign agent was to conceal these dealings and avoid scrutiny over influence peddling. While Democrats are now emphasizing that influence peddling is lawful, it is also clearly a form of corruption worthy of investigation. What’s more, efforts to conceal influence peddling are often criminal acts, including FARA violations. A criminal charge could put such motives before a jury — and the American public.
New details emerge on letter signed by intel officials to discredit Hunter Biden laptop story | Fox News Video - Fox News correspondent Lucas Tomlinson shares new details about the letter signed by 51 intelligence officials that attempted to link the Hunter Biden laptop scandal to Russian disinformation on 'Special Report.'
Republicans allege unspecified Biden 'scheme,' fire off new FBI subpoena - House Oversight Chair James Comer on Wednesday dramatically escalated his investigation into President Joe Biden with a subpoena Wednesday to the FBI citing the broad outlines of a “highly credible” whistleblower complaint.The summons for documents is Comer’s (R-Ky.) most direct attempt to investigate the president after largely focusing on Hunter Biden and other family members. The Oversight chair and Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa), in a separate letter released on Wednesday, asserted that the FBI has material outlining “an alleged criminal scheme involving then-Vice President Biden and a foreign national relating to the exchange of money for policy decisions.”The two senior Republicans provided no further detail on the nature of those allegations. But the GOP has made clear for months that the ultimate goal of its Biden oversight is to find a smoking gun that might link the president to the business deals of his son Hunter, who is also under a federal investigation.Comer and Grassley say they became aware of the potential existence of material underpinning the anti-Biden allegations from a “highly credible whistleblower” who contacted lawmakers to assert knowledge of a conversation the FBI had with a confidential source.The two Republicans provided no information on the purported whistleblower’s background, or how that person would have knowledge of an alleged conversation with an FBI source. GOP lawmakers have faced Democratic criticism in the past for applying the whistleblower designation to individuals who don’t meet the legal definition.“Based on the alleged specificity within the document, it would appear that the DOJ and the FBI have enough information to determine the truth and accuracy of the information contained within it. However, it remains unclear what steps, if any, were taken to investigate the matter,” Comer and Grassley wrote on Wednesday to FBI Director Christopher Wray and Attorney General Merrick Garland.The subpoena compels the FBI to require over any FD-1023 forms — the formal term for records that describe conversations with a confidential human source — from June 2020 that contain the word “Biden.” The forms themselves, regardless of their content, do not independently amount to evidence of wrongdoing.
Joe Biden 'Engaged In A Bribery Scheme With A Foreign National': FBI Internal Document Alleges - President Joe Biden allegedly participated in "a criminal scheme" to exchange money for policy decisions, according to Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-IA) and Rep. James Comer (R-KY), citing an internal FBI document they say contains evidence of the alleged bribery which took place when Biden was Vice President."We have received legally protected and highly credible unclassified whistleblower disclosures, " reads a Wednesday letter addressed to Attorney General Merrick Garland and FBI Director Christopher Wray. "It has come to our attention that the Department of Justice (DOJ) and Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) possess an unclassified FD-1023 form that describes an alleged criminal scheme involving then-Vice President Biden and a foreign national relating to the exchange of money for policy decisions. It has been alleged that the document includes a precise description of how the alleged criminal scheme was employed as well as its purpose." "We believe the FBI possesses an unclassified internal document that includes very serious and detailed allegations implicating the current President of the United States," said Grassley in a joint statement."The information provided by a whistleblower raises concerns that then-Vice President Biden allegedly engaged in a bribery scheme with a foreign national. The American people need to know if President Biden sold out the United States of America to make money for himself," said Comer.Grassley has long raised concerns about political bias infecting high-level investigative decisions at the FBI, including investigations related to the Biden family’s foreign business arrangements and bank records. While FBI Director Christopher Wray pledged to prevent any retaliation targeting whistleblowers, the FBI and Justice Department have thus far refused to voluntarily provide responsive records or answers to congressional inquiries related to its handling of these politically sensitive investigations. Comer and the Oversight Committee are investigating the Biden family’s suspicious business schemes to determine if the Biden family has been targeted by foreign actors, if President Biden is compromised, and if there is a national security threat. The Oversight Committee has obtained thousands of pages of financial records related to the Biden family and their associates’ business transactions. Recently, the Committee revealed one deal that resulted in several members of the Biden family and their companies receiving over $1 million in more than 15 incremental payments from a Chinese company through a third party. -oversight.house.gov Comer has issued a subpoena to Wray to appear before the Committee on Oversight and Accountability on May 10 at Noon.
Whistleblower bombshell on Hunter Biden laptop story 'of grave concern to all Americans': GOP lawmaker - After the House Oversight Committee announced a shocking revelation in the Biden family influence-peddling investigation, one fellow lawmaker called this the "biggest" discovery throughout the probe. “Here we have really a bombshell whistleblower coming out alleging that there is a document that shows that there is an elaborate scheme with a foreign national," Rep. Russell Fry, R-S.C., said Thursday on "Mornings with Maria.""I think it's of grave concern to all Americans," he continued, "and that's why the chairman and Senator Grassley are asking [FBI] Director Wray to produce the document."An alleged whistleblower has claimed that the FBI and the Justice Department are in possession of a document that describes a criminal scheme involving then-Vice President Joe Biden and an unnamed foreign national relating to the exchange of money for policy decisions, Fox News reported Wednesday.House Oversight Committee Chairman James Comer and Sen. Chuck Grassley also said that the whistleblower claims the document "includes a precise description of how the alleged criminal scheme was employed as well as its purpose."The document, an FBI-generated FD-1023 form, allegedly details an arrangement involving an exchange of money for policy decisions."That's why the production of that document by the DOJ, by the FBI is so critical to really understanding what this whistleblower is talking about," Fry explained. "To me, this is probably one of the biggest developments that we've seen so far."Shutting down any concerns that the respective agencies may refuse to hand over the document in question, the legislator assured subpoenas are expected soon in an effort to "use our authority."
On Hunter Biden, U.S. Attorney David Weiss said to be close to charging decision - Prosecutors are nearing a decision on whether to charge President Biden’s son Hunter with tax- and gun-related violations, according to people familiar with the matter, the culmination of a four-year investigation that Republicans have sought to portray as evidence the Biden family is corrupt.Biden’s attorneys met at Justice Department headquarters in downtown Washington last week to discuss the case with U.S. Attorney David Weiss of Delaware, according to the people familiar with the matter, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss an ongoing criminal investigation. Typically, that sort of meeting — in which defense lawyers urge prosecutors not to seek an indictment of their client, or to seek reduced charges — comes toward the end of an investigation.The people familiar with the matter said Weiss is nearing the end of his decision-making process, although they offered no specific timetable. They cautioned that the probe has taken longer than some officials thought it would, frustrating some law enforcement officials, and conceivably could slow down again before a decision has been reached.On Oct. 6, federal agents investigating Hunter Biden said they had gathered sufficient evidence to charge him with crimes related to taxes and a gun purchase. Any decision could have a significant impact on President Biden, whojust launched his reelection campaign, bringing national attention to a sensitive topic that aides often struggle to broach with the president. Republicans seeking to win back the White House have sought to tie Hunter Biden’s legal woes directly to his father.Attorney General Merrick Garland has told Congress that the department’s decisions in the case would not be politicized and has said that he has granted Weiss — a holdover from the Trump administration — complete authority to run the investigation.Attorney General Merrick Garland on March 1 said that the U.S. attorney overseeing the Hunter Biden probe has been able to independently investigate the case. (Video: Reuters)Garland reiterated that stance Tuesday at a news conference on an unrelated matter, telling reporters who asked about the status of the investigation: “I stand by my testimony, and I refer you to the U.S. attorney for the District of Delaware, who is in charge of this case and capable of making any decisions that he feels are appropriate.”The attorney general was not present at the meeting with Hunter Biden’s lawyers last week, the people familiar with the matter said. A spokeswoman for Weiss declined to comment, as did a lawyer for Biden. Biden said of himself in December 2020 that he had “handled my affairs legally and appropriately.”
Prosecutors Close on Deciding Whether to Charge Hunter Biden: Report - Federal prosecutors are close to reaching a final decision on whether to indict President Joe Biden's son, Hunter, on tax and and gun-related charges. That's according to The Washington Post, which reported that the younger Biden's lawyers met with the US attorney for Delaware, David Weiss, at Justice Department headquarters last week. It's likely that Biden's attorneys urged prosecutors not to bring criminal charges against Hunter Biden, and The Post reported that these types of meetings typically come near the end of an investigation. An indictment against Biden would take place against the backdrop of his father's 2024 campaign; the elder Biden formally launched his reelection campaign last week, and criminal charges against his son would mark the biggest test yet of Biden's pledge to restore independence to the Justice Department following the Trump era. It would also give fresh ammunition to congressional Republicans who are investigating the Biden family's potential financial conflicts of interest, and who have long pointed to Hunter Biden's activities as being an ethical and national security risk. A lawyer for Hunter Biden and a spokesperson for the president did not immediately respond to a request for comment for this story. The Hunter Biden investigation has been underway for nearly four years, and he first announced the existence of the probe in December 2020. "I learned yesterday for the first time that the U.S. Attorney's Office in Delaware advised my legal counsel, also yesterday, that they are investigating my tax affairs," he said in a statement at the time. "I take this matter very seriously but I am confident that a professional and objective review of these matters will demonstrate that I handled my affairs legally and appropriately, including with the benefit of professional tax advisors." CNN reported prosecutors started investigating Biden's taxes in 2018 but temporarily halted the inquiry because of Justice Department rules barring prosecutors from taking actions that could influence the outcome of an election. The US attorney's office in Delaware told prosecutors after the election that they could resume the probe and take overt investigative steps.
White House reportedly 'worried' over Hunter Biden going rogue with legal defense plan: 'Legitimate headache' - According to an Axios report, Hunter Biden has "clashed" with top aides to President Biden over his legal defense strategy. The report claimed Friday that "tensions" between Hunter Biden and President Biden's aides over his legal defense have led Hunter Biden to hire a new lawyer for a more "combative approach" without consulting with his father’s legal advisers. A former top Department of Justice spokesman noted that the younger Biden going rogue with his legal decisions and perhaps pushing past the "guardrails" that the president’s advisers would have him follow could be "a legitimate headache for the White House."The tensions between Hunter Biden and the White House over his legal defense have risen as the president’s son is facing investigations on several fronts. There’s the DOJ investigation into his potential charges of tax fraud and illegally purchasing a firearm, investigations into his alleged business corruption by Republicans in Congress and also a child support court case in Arkansas. The piece began with the statement, "Top aides to President Biden have clashed with Hunter Biden's team over strategies for dealing with the legal battles and Republican attacks that surround the president's son."As Axios noted, much of the heartburn over legal strategies has prompted Hunter Biden’s decision to hire new lawyer Abbe Lowell — who recently represented former President Donald Trump’s son-in-law, Jared Kushner — without input from his father’s people. The outlet stated, "The tensions led Hunter — without involving the president's top aides — to hire prominent lawyer Abbe Lowell in December, as part of a plan to take a more combative approach than the White House and Hunter's previous lawyer had taken."
Biden defends son Hunter ahead of possible federal tax, gun charges — President Joe Biden defended his son Hunter as federal prosecutors are said to be nearing a decision on whether to charge the president’s son with tax and firearms violations after a four-year criminal investigation. “First of all, my son has done nothing wrong,” Biden said in an interview with Stephanie Ruhle, host of “The 11th Hour on MSNBC.” "I trust him. I have faith in him.” Asked how charges against his son could impact his presidency, Biden said he stands by Hunter. “It impacts my presidency by making me feel proud of him,” the president said. Federal prosecutors are weighing whether to charge Hunter Biden with two misdemeanor counts for failure to file taxes, a single felony count of tax evasion related to a business expense for one year of taxes, and the gun charge, also a potential felony. Hunter Biden has said he has since reconciled delinquent tax filings. The White House has dismissed allegations by an IRS special agent seeking whistleblower protections in the handling of the case. Aides insist that Biden has not been involved and that the president stands by his promise not to politicize the Justice Department. But any outcome could draw significant national attention to Biden and his family as the president embarks on a campaign for re-election. Hunter has denied wrongdoing in the tax case, saying that he handled his affairs “legally and appropriately.” The investigation has drawn attention from Republicans on Capitol Hill and former President Donald Trump, a leading contender for the GOP nomination in 2024, who have sought to tie Biden to his son's business dealings with foreign governments.
Proud Boys leader found guilty of seditious conspiracy for driving Jan. 6 attack - A jury on Thursday convicted Enrique Tarrio, the former leader of the Proud Boys, and three allies of a seditious conspiracy to derail the transfer of power from Donald Trump to Joe Biden, a historic verdict following the most significant trial to emerge from the Jan. 6 attack on the Capitol. Jurors also convicted the four men — who also include Ethan Nordean, Joseph Biggs and Zachary Rehl — of conspiring to obstruct Congress’ proceedings on Jan. 6 and destroying government property. The jury deadlocked on seditious conspiracy against a fifth defendant, Dominic Pezzola, but convicted him of obstructing Congress’ Jan. 6 proceedings as well as several other felony charges. Prosecutors cast Tarrio and the Proud Boys leaders as the most significant drivers of the Jan. 6 attack, assembling a “fighting force” that arrived at the Capitol even while Trump addressed a crowd of supporters near the White House. Members of the group were present for and involved in multiple breaches of police lines. They later celebrated their role in the breach. The verdict punctuates an extraordinary chapter in the aftermath of the Jan. 6 attack. Prosecutors have now secured seditious conspiracy convictions or guilty pleas for 14 Jan. 6 defendants — five associated with the Proud Boys and nine associated with the far-right Oath Keepers — the gravest charges arising from the assault on the Capitol. All five defendants were convicted of a third conspiracy: a plan to prevent members of Congress and law enforcement from discharging their duties on Jan. 6. They were also convicted of felony civil disorder and destruction of government property — specifically a black metal fence that Nordean and Biggs were accused of dismantling while rioters faced off with police. Pezzola was separately found guilty of destroying a Senate-wing window with a police riot shield, which the jury also convicted him of robbing from a Capitol Police officer. Images of Pezzola smashing the Capitol window quickly proliferated after the attack and became a symbol of the brazen assault on Congress, which forced lawmakers and then-Vice President Mike Pence to flee for safety.
Fox sends cease-and-desist letter to Media Matters over leaked Tucker Carlson footage -Fox Corp., the parent company of Fox News, has sent a cease-and-desist letter to Media Matters for America over its publication of leaked videos showing Tucker Carlson, a former host at the network, making crude and offensive comments off the air.“We write on behalf of Fox Corporation to clarify any misunderstandings Media Matters may have had regarding previously unaired footage that Media Matters has published in a series of articles headlined “FOXLEAKS,” attorneys for the network wrote in a letter dated Friday.“That unaired footage is Fox’s confidential intellectual property; Fox did not consent to its distribution or publication; and Fox does not consent to its further distribution or publication.”The network’s lawyers said the videos were given to the liberal media watchdog group “without Fox’s authorization” and demanded it “cease and desist from distribution, publication, and misuse of Fox’s misappropriated proprietary footage, which you are now on notice was unlawfully obtained.”In a statement to The Hill on Friday, Angelo Carusone, president of Media Matters said “reporting on newsworthy leaked material is a cornerstone of journalism. For Fox to argue otherwise is absurd and further dispels any pretense that they’re a news operation.” “Perhaps if I tell them that the footage came from a combination of WikiLeaks and Hunter Biden’s laptop, it will alleviate their concerns,” Carusone added. Over the past several days, Media Matters has published a series of videos of Carlson, who was ousted from his show on Fox, making sexist and crude comments about women and complaining about the network on the set of his wildly popular show.In one video, he referred to a woman as “yummy” and in another, he is seen asking a female makeup artist if women have “pillow fights” in the restroom.
Trump vows to go after ‘radical Left’ colleges, echoing DeSantis approach - Former President Donald Trump is calling for a drastic expansion of the federal government’s oversight of colleges and universities, vowing to “reclaim” campuses that he asserts are “dominated by Marxist Maniacs and lunatics.” In a video released by his campaign on Tuesday, Trump outlined a plan to reshape higher education if he returns to the White House, echoing some of the policies that his possible Republican primary rival, Gov. Ron DeSantis, has pursued in Florida. “The time has come to reclaim our once great educational institutions from the radical Left, and we will do that,” Trump said. “Our secret weapon will be the college accreditation system.” Trump said he would “fire” the existing accrediting organizations that oversee colleges and universities and replace them with new accreditors who would impose a range of new standards on colleges. Under the plan, colleges would be required to remove all administrators involved in diversity, equity and inclusion efforts, whom Trump decried as “Marxist” bureaucrats. Colleges would also be required to offer options for “accelerated and low-cost degrees” and provide “meaningful job placement and career services.” And Trump would also force colleges to implement entrance and exit exams “to prove that students are actually learning and getting their money’s worth.” In addition, the plan suggests that colleges would be required to ensure that their curriculum defends “the American tradition and Western civilization,” though it does not provide additional details on what precisely that would entail. Trump’s pledge comes as DeSantis has made it a key priority to drastically reshape Florida colleges and universities. DeSantis is pushing legislation, which advanced in the state Senate last week, to restrict state colleges and universities from spending money on diversity, equity and inclusion programs. And he’s also sought to transform a public liberal arts school — New College of Florida — into a more conservative-leaning institution.
Who paid for Ron DeSantis' trip overseas? No one will say. - — In late February, a jet owned by the company associated with the Fontainebleau Hotel flew from Tallahassee to Newark ahead of Gov. Ron DeSantis’ appearance on Staten Island. That same day a jet owned by a central Florida developer flew from Newark to Philadelphia to Chicago to Tallahassee when the governor also made stops that same day in Pennsylvania and Illinois. Who paid for these flights? The governor’s office said no taxpayer money was spent on these flights in connection with DeSantis’ three-city stop that day. A spokesperson who has been affiliated with the governor’s political operation declined to comment. There was nothing listed in the governor’s political committee campaign finance report for February. The state Republican Party spent money on travel expenses in the first quarter, including on commercial airlines and for what appear to be chartered flights in January and March, but there are no indications the governor’s February trip was a gift from the party. The party executive director did not respond to a question back in February about DeSantis’ trips to New York, Chicago and Philadelphia. Meanwhile, flight tracking records show that a private chartered jet last week flew from Austin, Texas, to Japan to South Korea to Israel to London and then, over the weekend, stopped in Boston before finally winding up in Tallahassee. Those stops coincide with the governor’s movements for the past week. It has been previously stated that this trip is being paid for by private donations to Enterprise Florida, the public-private economic development agency that is about to be dismantled by the Legislature. But a spokesperson for Enterprise Florida has not responded to questions as to why a chartered jet — which is likely to be tremendously expensive — was used for DeSantis’ trip. The agency was also asked about how much this will ultimately cost. State Rep. Jeff Holcomb — the House sponsor of a bill that would shield DeSantis’ travel records associated with taxpayer paid travel from scrutiny — suggested on the House floor on Monday that who pays for the governor’s whereabouts, including any travel for book promotional tours or campaigning, would still somehow be available. The book tour stops were handled by a nonprofit organization, which doesn’t have to disclose most of its records.
Judge Tosses Trump’s Lawsuit Against NY Times, Orders Him to Pay All Legal Fees - A New York judge has tossed out Donald Trump’s lawsuit against The New York Times, and ordered the former president to pay all attorneys fees, legal expenses, and associated costs.Trump filed the lawsuit in 2021, alleging that the newspaper, three of its reporters and his niece Mary Trump engaged in an “insidious plot” to obtain his private records for a Pulitzer-winning story about his tax issues.While the court tossed out Trump’s claims against the newspaper and its reporters, the claims against the ex-president’s niece have yet to be ruled upon.“The New York Times is pleased with the judge’s decision today,” a paper spokesperson wrote in a statement to The Daily Beast. “It is an important precedent reaffirming that the press is protected when it engages in routine newsgathering to obtain information of vital importance to the public.”The twice-impeached former president’s claims against the defendants “fail as a matter of constitutional law,” New York Supreme Court Justice Robert R. Reed wrote in his ruling filed on Wednesday afternoon, deeming the paper’s newsgathering as being at “the very core of protected First Amendment activity.”
E. Jean Carroll resumes testimony in Trump rape trial after mistrial denied -(Reuters) - E. Jean Carroll returned to the witness stand in her rape and defamation civil case against Donald Trump, after the judge denied a defense request for a mistrial. Trump's lawyer Joe Tacopina began cross-examining Carroll for a second day, hoping to show jurors inconsistencies or holes in her claims against the former U.S. president. Carroll, 79, has accused Trump, 76, of raping her in a Bergdorf Goodman department store dressing room in late 1995 or early 1996, and then undermining her credibility and career by lying about it online. Her defamation claim concerns an October 2022 post on Trump's Truth Social platform, where Trump called the former Elle magazine advice columnist's case a "complete con job" and "a Hoax and a lie." The trial in Manhattan federal court began on April 25, and is in its fourth day. In seeking a mistrial, Tacopina wrote an 18-page letter early on Monday accusing U.S. District Judge Lewis Kaplan of bias against Trump. Trump's lawyer said the effect of several "unfair and prejudicial" rulings by Kaplan "manifests a deeper leaning towards one party over another," including comments where the judge "openly expresses favoritism." Tacopina said Kaplan, an appointee of Democratic President Bill Clinton, should have let him question Carroll about why she did not seek security camera footage of the alleged rape. Trump's lawyer also challenged Kaplan's statement that Trump might be "sailing in harm's way" after his son Eric Trump discussed on Twitter how LinkedIn co-founder Reid Hoffman was helping fund Carroll's case. Kaplan ruled last Wednesday that Trump's lawyers cannot mention Hoffman at the trial, calling it "unfairly prejudicial." Requests for mistrials are often long shots, though they often form a basis for eventual appeals.
Trump won’t take the stand in lawsuit accusing him of rape - — Donald Trump will not testify in the civil lawsuit accusing him of raping a woman in the mid-1990s, the former president’s lawyer said at trial in Manhattan federal court Tuesday. E. Jean Carroll, the woman who brought the lawsuit, alleges Trump raped her in a dressing room in the lingerie department of luxury Manhattan department store Bergdorf Goodman. She is suing him for battery and defamation. He has denied her claims, saying the alleged incident “never happened.” Trump’s testimony hadn’t seemed likely. He hasn’t attended any of the trial, which began a week ago, and the courthouse hasn’t appeared to make any security changes to accommodate the presence of a former president who has Secret Service protection. But Trump’s lawyer Joe Tacopina had demurred when asked several times by U.S. District Judge Lewis Kaplan whether Trump would testify, leaving the option open. On Tuesday, however, Tacopina informed Kaplan that Trump had decided against taking the witness stand. The jury, however, will hear from Trump, albeit not live or in person. An attorney for Carroll said she expects to play about 45 minutes of a videotaped deposition of Trump for jurors. Jurors heard from a variety of witness on Tuesday, including a friend of Carroll’s, Lisa Birnbach, who testified that Carroll called her about five minutes after the alleged incident at Bergdorf’s and, “breathless” and “hyperventilating,” told Birnbach that Trump had attacked her. Jurors also heard from a woman named Jessica Leeds, who has accused Trump of sexually assaulting her on an airplane in the late 1970s.
Epstein's Private Calendar Emerges: Among Prominent Names Listed Are Biden's CIA Chief, Goldman Top Lawyer - In 2014, current CIA director William Burns had three meetings with Jeffrey Epstein when Burns was Obama's deputy secretary of state, and after Epstein had been convicted of child sex exploitation, the Wall Street Journal reports. Burns and Epstein first met in Washington prior to Burns visiting Epstein and his Manhattan townhouse, according to a trove of leaked documents that include Epstein's schedules which were not contained in Epstein's "black book" of contacts or flight logs. Burns, who became CIA Director under Biden in 2021, met with Epstein while he was preparing to leave his position in the government, according to agency spokeswoman Tammy Kupperman Thorp. "The director did not know anything about him, other than that he was introduced as an expert in the financial services sector and offered general advice on transition to the private sector," she said, adding "They had no relationship."One month after meeting with Epstein, in October 2014, Burns stepped down from this role at the State Department to serve as president of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, a think tank. He ran it until he was nominated by Biden to serve as CIA director in early 2021.Epstein also had dozens of meetings with then-Obama White House attorney Kathryn Ruemmler, who went on to become Goldman Sachs' top lawyer in 2020. Epstein also planned for her to join him in 2015 on a trip to Paris, and in 2017 to visit his private island in the Caribbean.According to a spokesman for Goldman, Ruemmler had a 'professional relationship' with Epstein tied to her role at law firm Latham & Watkins LLP, and did not travel with him."I regret ever knowing Jeffrey Epstein," she said.According to the documents, however, they knew each other well enough... following Epstein's 2006 conviction for sexually abusing girls in Florida as young as 14-years-old. He asked for avocado sushi rolls to be on hand when meeting with Ms. Ruemmler, according to the documents. He visited apartments she was considering buying. In October 2014, Epstein knew her travel plans and told an assistant to look into her flight. “See if there is a first class seat,” he wrote, “if so upgrade her.”
You’re Not Deficient, You’re Just Ruled By Assholes – Caitlin Johnstone - Stress, anxiety and depression are on the rise, and they have been for years. Studies have found that increases in cost of living have a lot to do with this deterioration in mental health, while others have linked it to widespread social media use, and the financial and social stressors ensuing from government Covid restrictions certainly haven’t helped. What nobody seems to be doing any research at all into investigating is the possibility that all these mental health problems have something to do with the fact that we are ruled by tyrants who are squeezing the working class harder and harder while continually pounding people’s minds with mass-scale psyops. William Gibson said “Before you diagnose yourself with depression or low self-esteem, first make sure that you are not, in fact, just surrounded by assholes.” And speaking from personal experience this is fantastic advice; I’ve found that many of the problems I had previously ascribed to flaws in myself and necessary difficulties that are built into the nature of human living quickly disappeared from my life at the same time assholes did. But even more worthwhile than pointing out that a lot of your assumed mental health problems have more to do with being surrounded by assholes is considering the possibility that you are in fact ruled by assholes. By tyrants who are making life needlessly difficult for ordinary people while psychologically abusing them into thinking their situation is normal and appropriate. A popular socialist YouTuber called Second Thought has a good new video out called “You’re Not Immune To Propaganda” which examines the subject from a different angle than you might be used to. Second Thought emphasizes the mundane, everyday nature of propaganda in our society as opposed to the shinier, better-known instances of its use like the consent-manufacturing for the Iraq invasion; the way it manipulates our understanding of who we are and what our values should be so that we will blame our struggles on ourselves instead of the neoliberal systems of oppression that are crushing people’s spirits throughout western civilization.Think about the consequences it would have on mental health to continually be bombarded with messaging that you need to keep working like a machine under whatever conditions your employer sees fit to provide, for whatever compensation your employer sees fit to offer, and that if you can’t thrive in this soul-crushing environment the problem lies with you and not the system which permits such an exploitative relationship. Then consider the possibility that this is exactly what’s happening. This nonstop propaganda messaging is further bolstered by the just-world fallacy, a cognitive bias which causes people to incorrectly assume that if anything bad happens to someone it’s because they deserved it. This common glitch in human reasoning arises because of people’s need to feel like they’re in control of their lives; they get that feeling of control by espousing the fallacious belief that as long as people always make good common sense decisions, nothing bad will ever happen to them. As a Twitter follower named Joe Ligato recently pointed out to me, this fallacy would cause people to blame themselves for problems in their lives that actually exist because of exploitative systems.
Vice Preparing To File For Bankruptcy - First BuzzFeed, now Vice: one by one all the woke "media giants" of the new normal are going broke. Just two weeks after we reported that BuzzFeed News - which was instrumental in spreading fake news to get us suspended on twitter - was shuttering it not filing for bankruptcy just yet, today the NYT reports that the woke left's disruptor darling and former "multi-billion media empire" Vice, which once upon a time charmed giants like Disney and Fox into investing hundreds of millions before its stunning crash-landing, is preparing to file for bankruptcy. According to the NYT, the filing could come in the coming weeks, according to three people familiar with the matter who weren’t authorized to discuss the potential bankruptcy on the record. The company has been looking for a buyer, and still might find one, to avoid declaring bankruptcy. More than five companies have expressed interest in acquiring Vice, according to a person briefed on the discussions. The chances of that, however, are growing increasingly slim, said one of the people with knowledge of the potential bankruptcy.
FTC Says "Facebook Repeatedly Violated Its Privacy Promises," Puts "Young Users At Risk" -Meta, the parent company of the Facebook platform, has failed to comply with the Federal Trade Commission's 2020 privacy order that bars the social media company from profiting off data it collects from young users. Shares of Meta slid as much as 2% on the news. "Facebook has repeatedly violated its privacy promises," said Samuel Levine, Director of the FTC's Bureau of Consumer Protection. He said Meta's "recklessness has put young users at risk, and Facebook needs to answer for its failures."As part of the proposed changes, Meta, which changed its name from Facebook in 2021, would be prohibited from profiting from data it collects, including through its virtual reality products, from users under the age of 18. It would also be subject to other expanded limitations, including in its use of facial recognition technology, and required to provide additional protections for users.Wednesday's action by the FTC signifies an unwelcome reemergence of controversy for Meta and its platforms, Facebook and Instagram. Following previous FTC investigations into its privacy practices, the company paid a $5 billion civil penalty in 2019. This marks the third time the FTC has pursued action against Meta for allegedly failing to protect users' privacy. The agency explains the timeline of events:The Commission first filed a complaint against Facebook in 2011, and secured an order in 2012 barring the company from misrepresenting its privacy practices. But according to a subsequent complaint filed by the Commission, Facebook violated the first FTC order within months of it being finalized – engaging in misrepresentations that helped fuel the Cambridge Analytica scandal. In 2019, Facebook agreed to a second order—which took effect in 2020—resolving claims that it violated the FTC's first order. Today's action alleges that Facebook has violated the 2020 order, as well as the Children's Online Privacy Protection Act Rule (COPPA Rule). Shares of Meta slid 2% on the news but have rebounded since...
First Republic Bank fails, taken over by JPMorgan Chase --First Republic Bank was seized by regulators and sold to JPMorgan Chase early Monday morning, making it the third major bank to fail since March. The FDIC brokered the deal for Chase to take over First Republic following negotiations over the weekend and “a highly competitive bidding process,” according to a Monday statement. JPMorgan Chase will take control of all First Republic deposits and assets, and all 84 branches of First Republic Bank will reopen as branches of JPMorgan Chase during Monday business hours, the FDIC said. Customers with accounts at First Republic would be able to access their deposits by the beginning of Monday business hours, the FDIC said. The agency also said deposits with the bank will continue to be insured. As of April 13, First Republic Bank had about $229.1 billion in assets and $103.9 billion in deposits, the FDIC said. First Republic Bank had struggled in the wake of the abrupt collapses of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank, which were both taken over by the FDIC in March. “I am pleased we were able to deal with First Republic’s failure without using the FDIC’s emergency powers. It is a grave and unfortunate event when the FDIC uses these emergency powers,” said FDIC Board of Directors member Jonathan McKernan in a statement, adding that “more work remains to be done” to strengthen the banking system and plan for failures. JPMorgan Chase said in a statement that the move is supporting the U.S. financial system as consumer confidence in banking wavers. “Our government invited us and others to step up, and we did,” said Jamie Dimon, chairman of CEO of JPMorgan Chase. “Our financial strength, capabilities and business model allowed us to develop a bid to execute the transaction in a way to minimize costs to the Deposit Insurance Fund.” JPMorgan Chase and the FDIC together will cover the costs of losses on residential and commercial loans First Republic issued. The FDIC said the sale of First Republic likely will cost $13 billion from the Deposit Insurance Fund, which is the FDIC fund for protecting deposits at failed banks. The DIF had $128 billion at the end of 2022, but the FDIC was already forced to spend nearly $22.5 billion to handle the collapses of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank in March.
First Republic Bank Is Seized by Regulators and Sold to JPMorgan Chase - Regulators seized control of First Republic Bank and sold it to JPMorgan Chase on Monday, a dramatic move aimed at curbing a two-month banking crisis that has rattled the financial system. First Republic is the second-largest U.S. bank by assets to collapse after Washington Mutual, which failed during the financial crisis of 2008 and was also acquired by JPMorgan.Founded in 1985 and the 14th-largest U.S. bank as of earlier this year, First Republic’s assets were battered by the rise in interest rates, and the company had struggled to stay alive after two other lenders collapsed in March, spooking depositors and investors.The takeover of First Republic by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation and sale to JPMorgan was announced hours before U.S. markets opened, and after a scramble by officials over the weekend. On Monday, 84 First Republic branches in eight states reopened as JPMorgan branches.“This part of the crisis is over,” Jamie Dimon, JPMorgan’s chief executive, said on a conference call Monday. “For now we should all just take a deep breath.”Investors welcomed JPMorgan’s takeover, sending the bank’s stock 3.5 percent higher Monday. The stocks of PNC Financial Services and Citizens Financial Group — two regional banks that lost out on a bid for First Republic — each traded down more than 5 percent.First Republic’s shareholders and debt holders will be wiped out in this deal, a typical occurrence when a bank is put in government receivership. The First Republic name and its logo — a swooping eagle with its wings in a V-shaped formation — will be phased out, and the bank’s branches will become JPMorgan Chase outlets.President Biden also welcomed the takeover during a speech on small business on Monday afternoon. “These actions are going to make sure that the banking system is safe and sound,” Mr. Biden said from the Rose Garden. He added: “While depositors are being protected, shareholders are losing their investments. And critically, taxpayers are not the ones that are on the hook.”The F.D.I.C. estimated that its insurance fund, which is made up of the fees banks pay the agency for insuring deposits, would have to pay out about $13 billion to cover First Republic’s losses. JPMorgan also said that the F.D.I.C. would provide it with $50 billion in financing and that JPMorgan would pay $10.6 billion to the F.D.I.C.“Our government invited us and others to step up, and we did,” Mr. Dimon said. He said the transaction was intended “to minimize costs to the Deposit Insurance Fund.”The acquisition makes JPMorgan, already the nation’s largest bank, even bigger and was already being criticized by some lawmakers. “Since the 2008 financial crisis, regulators have tried to prevent the biggest banks from becoming more dominant,” Ian Katz, an analyst at Capital Alpha Partners, wrote in a research note. JPMorgan’s increase in size “will displease lawmakers from both sides of the aisle, but be particularly grating to progressives who have fought against consolidation via M&A.”First Republic failed despite having received a $30 billion lifelinefrom 11 of the country’s largest banks in March. JPMorgan said the $30 billion would be repaid after the deal closes.
JPMorgan Chase, FDIC put an end to First Republic's slow bleed -- The Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. placed First Republic Bank into receivership on Monday morning, and JPMorgan Chase has acquired much of the San Francisco bank, ending a frantic week as regulators scrambled to arrange a last-minute rescue. The bank was closed by the California Department of Financial Protection and Innovation overnight and handed to the FDIC, which said in a news release that it selected a bid from JPMorgan for all of First Republic's deposits and "substantially all" of its $229.1 billion of assets. The bank's 84 offices in eight states are scheduled to reopen Monday as branches of JPMorgan Chase during normal business hours. As part of the purchase and assumption transaction, the FDIC and JPMorgan have entered into a loss-share agreement on certain single-family residential mortgages and commercial loans. The two will share in the losses and potential recoveries on former First Republic loans covered by the agreement, the release said. The failure is expected to cost the federal Deposit Insurance Fund about $13 billion, the release said. "Our government invited us and others to step up, and we did," JPMorgan Chairman and CEO Jamie Dimon said in a separate news release issued by the company. "Our financial strength, capabilities and business model allowed us to develop a bid to execute the transaction in a way to minimize costs to the Deposit Insurance Fund." The deal "modestly benefits our company overall, it is accretive to shareholders, it helps further advance our wealth strategy, and it is complementary to our existing franchise," Dimon said. The company expects to record an upfront, one-time, post-tax gain of about $2.6 billion. That does not include about $2 billion of post-tax restructuring costs anticipated over the next 18 months, the JPMorgan release said. First Republic had $103.9 billion of deposits at April 13, according to the FDIC release. JPMorgan said in its release Monday that it has assumed $92 billion of deposits. The difference in those two figures was not immediately clear. First Republic is the second-largest bank failure in U.S. history by assets, pulling ahead of the collapse of the $209 billion-asset Silicon Valley Bank last month, according to FDIC data.
First Republic Zombie Bank Dismembered, Pieces Handed to JP Morgan, Uninsured Depositors Bailed Out. Stockholders, some Bondholders Bailed in. Cost to FDIC Fund: $13 Billion -- by Wolf Richter - First Republic Bank, after disclosing last week that it’s a zombie, was shut down early today by the California banking regulator and handed to the FDIC as receiver, which then dismembered it and handed the pieces, after “a highly competitive bidding process,” to JP Morgan Chase Bank. These pieces are “substantially” all of its assets — including $173 billion in loans and $30 billion in securities. And JP Morgan assumes all its remaining $92 billion in deposits.Another bailout of uninsured depositors, including the big banks: All depositors, including uninsured depositors – including the $30 billion that 11 big banks, led by JP Morgan Chase, deposited at First Republic in March to prop it up – have access to their money today during regular business hours. All 84 branches reopen today as branches of JP Morgan Chase.JP Morgan, in its press release, said that it will pay for it in part with a $50 billion five-year fixed-rate loan from the FDIC. I sorted through the details of what JP Morgan got and what it paid here.And it said it would “recognize an upfront, one-time, post-tax gain of approximately $2.6 billion,” and incur post-tax restructuring costs over the next 18 months of “approximately $2.0 billion.”The FDIC also entered into a loss-share agreement with JP Morgan under which the FDIC will share in the losses and potential recoveries on the single family, residential, and commercial loans that JP Morgan purchased from the FDIC’s pile that was First Republic Bank.Total cost to the FDIC insurance fund will be about $13 billion, including the costs of bailing out the insured depositors, according to FDIC estimates.Stockholders got bailed in and wiped out. They’d already been mostly wiped out by Friday evening in one of the most spectacular stock plunges ever.Holders of the unsecured subordinated bank notes got bailed in and wiped out just about entirely. This is a form of preferred stock. There were two issues, totaling $800 million. For example, the 4.625% bank notes, issued in 2017, traded at less than 2 cents on the dollar this morning, another spectacular plunge. This was a bank resolution over a weekend with a minimum amount of drama and disruptions for bank customers that leaves all deposits and substantially all assets in the private sector – unlike the messy receiverships of Silicon Valley Bank andSignature Bank that involved a huge amount of drama over the deposits that was deemed to require the FDIC’s emergency powers; and this mess is still dragging on with the FDIC still trying to sell the remaining assets. Very interestingly, in a separate statement about the First Republic resolution, FDIC Board Member Jonathan McKernan rebuked bank regulators, bank regulations, and the “bailout culture”:“The March 12 rescue of SVB and Signature’s uninsured depositors was an admission that 15 years of reform efforts have not been a success. Many of the Dodd-Frank Act regulations were prescriptive, burdensome, and expensive. Yet still a failed bank’s investors do not always bear the consequences of the bank’s poor risk management. And yet still the banking system is not resilient to failures of bank supervision.“More work remains to be done. We should avoid the temptation to pile on yet more prescriptive regulation or otherwise push responsible risk taking out of the banking system. Instead, we should acknowledge that bank failures are inevitable in a dynamic and innovative financial system.“We should plan for those bank failures by focusing on strong capital requirements and an effective resolution framework as our best hope for eventually ending our country’s bailout culture that privatizes gains while socializing losses.”
Government backing crucial for JPMorgan takeover of First Republic Bank - In a deal struck in the early hours of yesterday morning, pushed through before Wall Street opened for the day, the failed First Republic Bank has been bought by JPMorgan Chase after it had been taken over by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC). Regulations governing competition in the banking sector were pushed aside to get the deal done. Under normal circumstances, JPMorgan, which is already America’s largest bank, would not have been allowed to buy First Republic under regulations that stipulate that no bank can hold more than 10 percent of insured deposits in the US. The go-ahead to bypass the regulations was taken by the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency that operates in the US Treasury Department. In the words of one unnamed person briefed on the situation, cited by the Financial Times (FT), JPMorgan “received a waiver because it was by far the best deal.” The takeover is being presented as a “private sector” solution to try to avoid giving the impression that this is yet another government bailout. But large amounts of public money are being outlaid. JPMorgan chief executive Jamie Dimon only agreed to go ahead with the takeover—after he said the government had asked him to “step up”—when he received an agreement from the FDIC that it would take a hit. Under the deal, JPMorgan will buy most of the company assets, including $173 billion in loans and $30 billion in securities as well as taking over $93 billion in deposits. The FDIC will take a loss of $13 billion, adding to the losses of more than $20 billion it has already taken because of the failures of SVB and Signature. In addition, JPMorgan will receive a $50 billion line in financing from FDIC and will share any losses with it. Government assistance has been crucial. According to a JP Morgan statement, it expected to make an immediate gain on the deal but, without government backing, it would have had to recognize losses running into billions of dollars as soon as it was completed. The failure of First Republic, the 14th largest bank in the country, is the second largest in monetary terms in US financial history, a position previously occupied by the Silicon Valley Bank (SVB). It collapsed in March and was taken over after a bank run following the withdrawal of $40 billion in a single day with a further $100 billion lined up to be withdrawn. Its demise, followed by the failure of the Signature Bank, set off the crisis in First Republic which had rapidly grown in recent years by making ultra-low interest rate mortgage loans to very wealthy individuals, in return for receiving their business accounts. But this model became unviable when interest rates rose. In the first quarter, First Republic reported it was earning an average of 3.73 percent on its loans. But it was forced to borrow money from the Federal Reserve at the rate of 4.5 percent to maintain liquidity which meant it was receiving less money in terms of interest payments than it was paying out.
JPMorgan Chase, Officially the Riskiest Bank in the U.S., Is Allowed by Federal Regulators to Buy First Republic Bank -By Pam and Russ Martens: On Wall Street, the business model isyou eat what you kill. Jamie Dimon and the bank he helms, JPMorgan Chase, just devoured First Republic Bank after Dimon had orchestrated the worst “rescue” of First Republic in the history of banking rescues. Given the outcome, one has to wonder if this rescue flop was a bug or a feature. (See Related Articles below.) After 7 weeks of Jamie Dimon’s “rescue,” First Republic and its preferred shares had been downgraded by credit rating agencies to junk; its common stock had lost 98 percent of its market value, closing at $3.51 on Friday and at $1.90 in pre-market trading early this morning; its long-term bonds were trading at 43 cents on the dollar; and depositors continued to flee the bank.And in order to pay out all those deposits that were taking flight, First Republic had to take out expensive loans from the Fed, the Federal Home Loan Bank of San Francisco, and a credit line from JPMorgan Chase, jeopardizing its future profitability. The interest cost of those loans significantly exceeded, in many cases, the rates it had locked in on the jumbo residential mortgages it had made to its wealthy clients and the government-backed bonds it had purchased during years of low interest rates on Treasury securities.JPMorgan Chase’s statement on the takeover of First Republic this morning indicated that it “is not assuming First Republic’s corporate debt or preferred stock” and the “FDIC will provide loss share agreements covering acquired single-family residential mortgage loans and commercial loans, as well as $50 billion of five-year, fixed-rate term financing.” Dimon’s so-called rescue plan, announced on March 16, made no sense from the beginning. It consisted of 11 banks chipping in a total of $30 billion to place into First Republic Bank as uninsureddeposits for 120 days. Four banks contributed two-thirds of the total deposits with JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup and Wells Fargo sluicing $5 billion each. Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs deposited $2.5 billion each; while BNY Mellon, State Street, PNC Bank, Truist and U.S. Bank each deposited $1 billion.But at the time of this display of heroics, First Republic Bank was bleeding deposits because it already had too many uninsured deposits – those above the FDIC cap of $250,000. And its losses on underwater mortgages and low-yielding bonds were making headlines every day. What it needed was an injection of long-term capital, not an injection of more uninsured deposits with a short-term horizon. What is raising eyebrows across Wall Street and throughout the Biden administration this morning, is that JPMorgan Chase is already ranked by its regulators as the riskiest bank in the U.S. (See Federal Data Show JPMorgan Chase Is, By Far, the Riskiest Bank in the U.S.) Making it bigger simply makes it more systemically riskier.JPMorgan Chase’s history of gobbling up competitors is both stunning and an indictment of federal banking regulators. In 1955, Chase National Bank merged with The Bank of the Manhattan Company to form Chase Manhattan Bank. In 1991, Chemical Bank and Manufacturers Hanover announced their merger. Both banks had been severely weakened – Chemical from bad real estate loans and Manufacturers from bad loans to developing nations. In 1995, Chemical Bank merged with Chase Manhattan Bank. In 2000, JPMorgan merged with Chase Manhattan Corporation. In 2004, JPMorgan Chase merged with Bank One. In 2008, during the height of the financial crisis, JPMorgan Chase was allowed to buy Washington Mutual. These are just the largest bank consolidations. Over the years, Chase acquired dozens of smaller banks.At the time of JPMorgan Chase’s purchase of Washington Mutual in 2008 – WaMu was the largest bank failure in U.S. history. JPMorgan Chase is now being allowed to purchase First Republic Bank, the second largest bank failure in U.S. history.
JPM CEO Says "System Is Very, Very Sound" After Second Largest US Bank Failure In History -- After another massive bank failure - and taxpayer-funded bailout - JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon told listeners on an investor call this morning that "The system is very, very sound." Doesn't seem like it Jamie, old chap? But hey, whatever you say now as the CEO of a bank that holds over 10% of America's deposits. "We need large, successful banks in the largest economy," Dimon continued, proclaiming that "this is nothing like '08 or '09." Well he is right, in so much as this is far larger... and we really don't know where the CRE holes on bank balance sheets are (even as Charlie Munger warns they are everywhere). The good news, Dimon declares regarding bank failures, "this is getting near the end of it." Thought how he would know that is hard to comprehend? Finally, the too-biggest-to-fail bank CEO warned, "we are clearly gong to see some reduction in bank lending," implying JPMorgan will be doing "God's work" for The Fed by contracting credit without the need for rate-hikes. For now, it's clear what the market thinks of JPM's state-sponsored buyout of FRC assets... Dimon's closing comments were the most prophetic, stating that they "support community banks" and that "banks will consolidate." Of course they will, once the banks are pushed into FDIC hands and assets scooped up by JPM with govt bankstops...
FDIC's McKernan says failed-bank auctions aren't competitive - The Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. failed to create a level playing field for nonbank bidders pursuing First Republic Bank, according to FDIC board member Jonathan McKernan. "Since the [Silicon Valley Bank] auction, I've pushed for changes to build more competitive tension in our failed-bank auctions so we get the best price," McKernan said in an interview, referring to the seizure and sale of Silicon Valley Bank to First Citizens BancShares in March. "But the FDIC ran essentially the same process again for First Republic." In the early hours of Monday morning, JPMorgan Chase emerged as the victor in a bidding process for San Francisco-based First Republic, beating out rivals including PNC Financial Services Group, which submitted proposals supported by Apollo Global Management Inc. and BlackRock Inc., Bloomberg News reported this week. "We didn't give nonbank bidders a real opportunity to participate on the same terms as bank bidders with respect to loss-share arrangements and deal financing, so, again, there's a real question whether we left value on the table," McKernan said. "The bottom line here is the FDIC is hindering the ability of nonbanks to participate in these auctions. Their participation is really in name only." An FDIC representative didn't immediately respond to a request for comment.
Just how 'orderly' was First Republic's failure? — First Republic Bank's failure early Monday morning capped more than a month of speculation and touch-and-go scenarios for the bank — probably not the orderly resolution the bank previously promised regulators as it lobbied for weaker oversight requirements. As regulators consider how to adjust policy in the aftermath of several large regional bank failures, toughening resolution requirements could be an easy win for the Biden administration. It has the advantage of already being in motion, as the Federal Reserve and Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. have been weighing additional requirements that could be imposed on large regional banks so they can fail without harming the broader financial system. And it's also something that regulators could do independently, rather than relying on a divided and ineffective Congress to pass new legislation. The executives of several of the failed banks had, in the past, argued against these requirements, including the chief executive of the most recently felled institution, Mike Roffler of First Republic. Earlier this year, Roffler told the Federal Reserve and the FDIC that he expected the bank could be resolved without extra oversight or government requirements. "In the event of failure, it is expected that the bank could be resolved in an orderly fashion in accordance with its resolution plan," Roffler wrote in a January letter to regulators.But some policy watchers have pointed out that First Republic's failure — while it didn't force regulators to use the same systemic risk exception that they deployed in the failures of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank — still wasn't exactly "orderly," or at least not according to the playbook that Dodd-Frank Act architects envisioned. "It's not orderly anytime you've got depositors withdrawing their money at such a rapid pace that it forces the FDIC and regulators to take that kind of action," said John Bovenzi, co-founder of The Bovenzi Group and a former FDIC official, of the First Republic failure.
The Banking Collapse Of 2023 Is Now Officially Bigger Than The Banking Collapse Of 2008 - Collectively, the three big banks that have collapsed in 2023 had more assets than all 25 banks that collapsed in 2008 did. 2008 saw the peak in terms of asset-size for bank failures ($373.6 billion with 'only' 25 failures), while 2010 saw the peak in number of banks failing (157 vs 25 in 2008). So far in 2023, 3 banks have failed with combined assets of $548.5 billion.Even including the $170.9 billion in assets from failed banks in 2009, 2023 is still worse than the two 'great financial crisis' years combined.Unfortunately, the banking collapse of 2023 is far from over. We still have eight more months to go before this year is done, and many more banks are currently teetering on the brink of disaster. Executives at those banks are telling us not to worry, but of course executives at First Republic were issuing similar assurances just last week. Personally, I had heard that First Republic supposedly had enough reserves to keep going for months. But that was a lie, and now First Republic is toast. The following comes from the official statement that the FDIC issued when it took over the bank…JPMorgan Chase Bank, National Association submitted a bid for all of First Republic Bank’s deposits. As part of the transaction, First Republic Bank’s 84 offices in eight states will reopen as branches of JPMorgan Chase Bank, National Association, today during normal business hours. All depositors of First Republic Bank will become depositors of JPMorgan Chase Bank, National Association, and will have full access to all of their deposits. The government was not going to allow just anyone to snap up the assets of First Republic.JPMorgan Chase was one of the institutions that was invited to make a bid, and they came out of this process as the big winners…JPMorgan is getting about $92 billion in deposits in the deal, which includes the $30 billion that it and other large banks put into First Republic last month. The bank is taking on $173 billion in loans and $30 billion in securities as well.The Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation agreed to absorb most of the losses on mortgages and commercial loans that JPMorgan is getting, and also provided it with a $50 billion credit line.In addition to providing JPMorgan Chase with a 50 billion dollar credit line, the FDIC will also take a loss on this deal of approximately 13 billion dollars. So they are definitely one of the big losers in this deal…The FDIC estimates that the cost to the Deposit Insurance Fund will be about $13 billion. This is an estimate and the final cost will be determined when the FDIC terminates the receivership.Needless to say, the biggest losers of all are the shareholders of First Republic. They got completely wiped out… Stockholders got bailed in and wiped out. They’d already been mostly wiped out by Friday evening in one of the most spectacular stock plunges ever. Holders of the unsecured subordinated bank notes got bailed in and wiped out just about entirely. This is a form of preferred stock. For example, the 4.625% bank notes, issued in 2017, traded at less than 2 cents on the dollar this morning, another spectacular plunge.
Why First Republic failed, and what it means for the rest of the banking industry - - First Republic's failure and rescue Monday is a jarring reminder that US banks continue to navigate a crisis nearly two months after Silicon Valley Bank collapsed.But despite a speedy takeover by JPMorgan, First Republic's failure shows the banking crisis is far from over.First Republic was taken over by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) at a cost of about $13 billion to the regulator. The lender suffered a flight of deposits in the first quarter of 2023, leaving it scrambling to address a liquidity crunch.JPMorgan stepped in to buy the bank after regulators took control, saying in a press release that it would acquire $92 billion of First Republic deposits. Its core customer base was very wealthy clients who rarely defaulted on loans. But that also meant many held much more than the $250,000 deposit limit insured by the FDIC.At the end of 2022, two-thirds of First Republic's deposits were uninsured. When SVB and Signature Bank failed, these wealthy customers fled First Republic in droves for fear of losing their cash.Deposits dropped 41% to $104.5 billion in the first three months of this year. They appeared to have fallen by another $12 billion by the time of JPMorgan's acquisition, based on the $92 billion deposit figure it cited.In addition, First Republic sought to woo its wealthy clientswith very cheap mortgages when interest rates were at rock-bottom, offering interest-only home loans in 2020 and 2021. This included an $11.2 million mortgage to a senior Goldman Sachs executive, per Bloomberg.But as the 30-year fixed mortgage rate more than doubledin the space of a year, these mortgages became far less valuable to First Republic than when they were initially offered.The combination of falling deposits and rising losses on its mortgage book doomed the regional lender. The parallels with SVB, where a large share of deposits was uninsured and losses linked to rising interest rates became untenable, were stark.The combined failure of SVB, Signature and First Republic is a reminder of the problems affecting the banking system. The Dow Jones US Bank Index has fallen about 16% since SVB's collapse because of this uncertainty.While market conditions appear to have wiped out the three most exposed banks, others remain vulnerable. Lenders' emergency borrowings from the Federal Reserve increased for the second week in a row through April 27,according to data released by the central bank.And there are still about $1 trillion in uninsured deposits held by US banks. Meanwhile, higher interest rates will likely continue to strain those banks heavily exposed to bonds and mortgages.
Dud-Frank? Post-2008 reforms played little role in bank resolutions. --After three bank failures in less than two months, some regulatory observers say the government's response to such distress is little changed from 2008, raising questions about the reform efforts undertaken during the past 15 years. The legislative response to the last banking crisis, the Dodd-Frank Act of 2010, sought to create a new playbook for handling bank failures, one that would allow regulators — or, ideally, banks themselves — to wind down troubled institutions in a controlled manner. The hope was that doing so would prevent government bailouts and brokered sales that make "'too big to fail" banks even larger.Instead, the crisis of 2023 has seen regulators make two systemic risk declarations, absorb significant losses and sell failed depositories to other banks, including the biggest bank in the country, JPMorgan Chase. "What is damning is there appears to have been no playbook," Karen Petrou, managing partner of Federal Financial Analytics, said. "If there was, it didn't work."The latest failed institution to be put through this process was San Francisco-based First Republic Bank, which was seized by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. and sold to JPMorgan in the early hours of Monday morning, allowing the bank's 80-plus branches to open as scheduled at the start of the workweek.Unlike the prior two failures — Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank, which were shuttered within two days of one another in March — the resolution of First Republic did not necessitate a systemic risk declaration. Yet, it still came at significant cost to the FDIC's Deposit Insurance Fund — roughly $13 billion. Kathryn Judge, a professor at Columbia Law School and expert in financial regulation, said the outcome was "disheartening" for those who spent years devising a new tool set for bank regulators in the wake of the subprime mortgage crisis, only to see them return to bailouts and "shotgun weddings" that circumvent the traditional merger review process. “What we've seen suggests that the government is unlikely to allow losses to fall where they will, and is far more likely to take an interventionist approach to facilitating a smooth resolution," Judge said, "even if that means absorbing some losses or failing to honor its playbook."
Biden, lawmakers revive bank rule fights after First Republic failure — President Joe Biden called for regulators and Congress to address issues in the banking system highlighted by the failure of First Republic, one more shot in an increasingly tense political back-and-forth in Washington over the need for bolstered regulation in the wake of mid-sized bank failures. Biden, in remarks in the White House's Rose Garden on Monday, sought to cast the deal struck by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. and JP Morgan for First Republic as anything but a bailout. At the same time, he asked Congress and regulators to reconsider some of the rules that govern large and midsized banks. "Let me be very clear, all depositors are being protected, shareholders are losing their investment. Critically, taxpayers are not the ones on the hook," Biden said. "Going forward, I've called on Congress to give regulators the tools to hold banking executives accountable." The Biden administration has also sought to reassure the industry and the public that First Republic's failure is the tail-end of troubles in the midsized banking sector. According to a person familiar with the matter, Treasury Secretary Yellen and other Treasury officials were in touch with regulators throughout the weekend as the auction for First Republic developed. First Republic was an outlier in the regional bank sector, the person said, and deposit flows at other regional banks have stabilized. On the other side of the aisle, Republicans in Congress have pushed back on the idea that new regulations or rules are needed. Rep. Patrick McHenry, R-N.C, the chairman of the House Financial Services Committee, said in a statement that the Biden administration and regulators should "not politicize these events." He also criticized the lack of a similar solution for Silicon Valley Bank, the first large regional bank to fail in this year's banking sector turmoil. "The FDIC used its available tools to resolve First Republic Bank," McHenry said in a statement. "I appreciate the quick work of regulators to facilitate a sale of the bank's assets, while minimizing risk to taxpayers. The question remains, why didn't the FDIC do the same thing in March when SVB was placed into receivership."
BankThink: Is the banking crisis over? Depends what you mean by over | American Banker --At 3 a.m. Monday morning, the other shoe that the banking industry has been anxiously waiting to drop dropped: First Republic, the next-most-wobbly bank after Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank failed in March, went into receivership and was sold to JPMorgan Chase. If you count Silvergate Bank's voluntary self-liquidation in March — not a failure, to be clear — we've now had four banks not succeed in three different ways over the course of about six weeks. All of them had an over-reliance on uninsured deposits in common, all of them sought liquidity from the Federal Home Loan Banks and all of them ended up underwater on long-dated securities. So the logical question to ask is: Is it over now? Some CEOs of the largest banks certainly think so. Jane Fraser, CEO of Citigroup, said at a conference Monday that "it's good to have really the last remaining source of uncertainty resolved," referring to First Republic's sale to JPMorgan Chase. JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon echoed that sentiment, saying Monday in a call with investors that, while "no crystal ball is perfect … the banking system is very stable." In one sense they are correct. Any banks that didn't get the memo about unhedged interest rate risk and uninsured deposits a month ago certainly have received it by now. Earnings calls from midsize regionals last month seemed to paint the picture that deposit levels have stabilized and customers are no longer running for the exits. But just as I write this, two more western regional banks — PacWest and Western Alliance — had trading on their shares halted because of precipitous drops in their values, probably because of investment downgrades related to broader concerns about net interest margin and increasing costs of funds. Ironically, a plummeting share price makes the cost of funds that much higher, but I digress. The fundamental business environment for banks is challenging right now because the Federal Reserve did what it doesn't typically want to do: raise interest rates a lot, and quickly. The quantitative easing era loaded up the banking system with an ocean of low-interest loans — loans that are no longer competitive in the current interest rate environment. People have also gotten used to money being cheap, so it's more difficult to get borrowers to take out mortgages at 6.5% interest when their friends and neighbors got 2.5% mortgages two years ago. So replacing those old loans with new, profitable loans is going to be tough. But that's interest rate risk, and those risks can be hedged or mitigated. All other things being equal, that makes this moment a tenuous but tolerable time to be a bank. What we don't know is what is lurking around the corner, because as Dimon pointed out earlier, no crystal ball is perfect.
El-Erian Warns Of "Collateral Damage & Unintended Consequences" Of JPM's Sponsored Buyout Of FRC -- Lots will be written on the rise and fall of First Republic Bank. Its customer service was legendary in the banking system, as was its list of rich clients with ample deposits and a healthy appetite for issuing jumbo mortgages to highly creditworthy borrowers. Yet it went from being admired to being seized by regulators and sold to another bank. What emerged on Monday morning was far from perfect, despite weeks of discussions and posturing. What we have are US government institutions caught up in the policy implications of a “second best” world — that is, the repeated inability to come up with an optimal solution. What’s emerged will come with collateral damage and unintended consequences. First Republic found itself in a similar situation to Silicon Valley Bank, which was shut down by regulators in March. Its failure to manage an interest rate mismatch on its balance sheet ultimately crippled it as deposits flew out the door in response to the earlier bank failures. Its vulnerability was amplified by the Federal Reserve’s initial mischaracterization of inflation as transitory, the failure to take timely measures, and the inevitably highly concentrated set of hikes that followed. The inevitable assessments of First Republic’s failure are also likely to point to significant lapses in bank supervision and regulation — the type of failures that were detailed last Friday in a report by the Fed that, refreshingly and encouragingly, saw the central bank finally take ownership of a mistake and seek to learn from it. Unlike other major central banks, it had repeatedly failed to do so when it comes to monetary policy. First Republic became increasingly fragile as the contraction in deposits worsened funding costs, deepened a capital hole, and plummeted its stock price by around 95%. That was the bad news. The good news was that, at least on paper, there was a constructive alignment of incentives among the main actors in the bank resolution process. Having already lost three institutions, the banking system as a whole desperately needed an orderly resolution for First Republic that minimized the risk of further disruptions. This was not just the case for regional and community banks where the risks of flighty deposits and duration mismatches were under a bright spotlight. It was also the case for the 11 larger banks as they had injected tens of billions of deposits into First Republic in an earlier attempt to stabilize the situation. It was also the case for regulators, especially the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. and the Fed. The FDIC wanted to avoid being on the hook for financial losses and having to dispose of yet another bank’s assets and liabilities; and the Fed did not want to trigger yet again the “systemic risk” clause to allow for an extension of deposit insurance to theoretically uninsured deposits. The Fed was also keen to keep the door open for the policy “separation principle” that has interest rate policy aimed at inflation reduction and other tools used for financial stability. Despite this alignment, it took weeks for a solution to emerge. And when it did, it involved unfavorable spillovers, as well as having one of the nation’s biggest and most dominant bank - JPMorgan - becoming even more so. With this comes the further evolution of the largest financial institutions from major sources of systemic risk to stabilizers of the system itself. Moreover, and also departing from the previous conventional wisdom, the bigger and more diversified banks are now being considered “safer” than the narrow banks which have either no or a very limited range of capital market activities that have traditionally been viewed as a source of financial stability risk. The solution that emerged early Monday morning deals with the immediate threat of a disorderly failure of First Republic and, therefore, does not fuel the already uncomfortable risk of possible additional disruptions to other regional and community banks. Yet the potential collateral damage and the unintended consequences are far from immaterial. Four stand out in particular.
- First, the US now has a more concentrated banking system, with what was once viewed not so long ago as “too big to fail”/”too big to manage” banks becoming larger.
- Second, there is even greater doubt about the nature of the de facto deposit insurance system in place.
- Third, the compositional risk within the banking system of less credit extending into the economy will continue, potentially aggravating the headwinds to high and inclusive growth.
- Finally, the total cost of First Republic’s resolution remains to be assessed, including how the burden be shared among the public and private sectors and, with that, the extent of the “bailout” for the 11 banks that had large deposits with First Republic.
The US economy continues to suffer from too many years of easy money, and the subsequent mishandling of the rate hiking cycle and lapses in supervision and regulation. With that comes the ever-present risk of collateral damage and unintended consequences given that first best policy responses are no longer available.
Banking Woes Increase Pressure On Fed As Hike Looms --The US banking system is still struggling with the impact of the Federal Reserve’s 4.75 percentage points of interest-rate hikes, even as the central bank is set to add another quarter point today.The resolution of First Republic Bank’s woes was supposed to relieve matters, but regional lenders promptly sank on concerns others will need rescuing. This looks to be a slow-moving car crash — monetary policy famously acts with a lag. It is also a bit counter-intuitive, because traditionally the expectation is that higher rates improve bank profits by allowing them to increase the gap between their cost of capital and the interest they charge.This time round, things are a bit different. There’s the persistent yield curve inversion that works against those who borrow short-term and lend longer-term, and the Fed’s helped make money-market rates high enough to lure depositors away. Then there’s the unintended consequences of post-2008 regulations that mandated lenders to hold larger amounts of Treasuries, assets that are now worth a lot less after Fed rate increases.The only chart you need: no regional bank can compete with the Fed/Money Markets - guarantees the deposit bank run will only get much worse pic.twitter.com/AEBZ09bhCm— zerohedge (@zerohedge) May 2, 2023All that underscores the potential that the banking woes, and their own slow-moving impacts on broader credit conditions, will push policymakers to halt hikes sooner than they have been signaling.
PacWest tumbles as it considers 'all options' -- PacWest Bancorp shares tumbled more than 30% in premarket trading Thursday following news that the bank is weighing strategic options. The regional bank is assessing options, including a possible sale, and bringing in advisors to evaluate longer-term plans for the business, CNBC confirmed, according to one person familiar with the matter. Piper Sandler and Stephens are the two firms advising PacWest, the person said. PacWest later confirmed it was still in discussions with multiple potential investors and partners. "The company will continue to evaluate all options to maximize shareholder value," it said in a statement. The shares of several West Coast regional banks have been hit particularly hard since the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank in March, in part because of concerns that their customer bases are similar. This week, First Republic Bank was seized by regulators and sold to JPMorgan Chase. In its statement, PacWest said it had not experienced "out-of-the-ordinary deposit flows" after the First Republic collapse. The Los Angeles-based PacWest has a roughly $750 million market cap, and is down by 72% this year through Wednesday's close after its shares notched their fifth straight losing day.
Short Sellers Cratered Silvergate Bank and First Republic; They’re Now Targeting PacWest and Numerous Other Regional Banks - By Pam and Russ Martens - President Joe Biden is putting the national security of the United States at risk by not suspending the short-selling of federally-insured banks. Concerns over the safety and soundness of the U.S. financial system could cause money flight out of the U.S., impacting the strength of the U.S. dollar and a loss of confidence by our foreign allies. This is also a matter that impacts the financial lives of every American, because every American – rich, poor or middle class – will suffer the consequences in terms of ability to access bank credit and higher fees on that credit as a result of rebuilding the rapidly depleting federal Deposit Insurance Fund that protects bank deposits. The second, third and fourth largest bank failures in the history of the U.S. have now occurred in the span of seven weeks (First Republic Bank, Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank, respectively) with the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) taking big hits in each case to its Deposit Insurance Fund. At the time of First Republic Bank’s failure on Monday (with JPMorgan Chase given a very sweet deal by the FDIC to buy its underwater assets and take over the deposits that hadn’t yet fled), it was one of the most heavily shorted bank stocks with one-third of its outstanding shares shorted as of one week before it failed, according to a report from Reuters.First Republic Bank was not a small bank. At the time of its demise, it had $207.5 billion in assets. According to a statement from the FDIC on Monday, it “estimates that the cost to the Deposit Insurance Fund will be about $13 billion. This is an estimate and the final cost will be determined when the FDIC terminates the receivership.”The FDIC estimated the cost to the Deposit Insurance Fund in the failure of Silicon Valley Bank to be $20 billion, and the cost to the DIF in the failure of Signature Bank to be $2.5 billion. All of these FDIC estimates seem very optimistic but even if they are accurate, that’s a combined hit thus far of $35.5 billion to a Deposit Insurance Fund that had just $128.2 billion as of December 31, 2022. In short, assessments on banks to restore the Deposit Insurance Fund are going to be going up as a result of these bank failures and attendant losses – which mean that banks are going to be passing those increased costs along to their customers. If more banks fail, those costs will rise exponentially, putting aside the more critical issue of loss of confidence in the U.S. banking system. This is not some abstract theory. The newest target of the short sellers is PacWest Bancorp (ticker PACW). According to S&P Global Market Intelligence, as of March 31, 20.6 percent of PacWest’s shares outstanding were sold short, making it the third largest shorted bank stock at that point. (The bank stock with the largest percentage of shares shorted on March 31 was Silvergate Bank, which became an easy target of short sellers because it had entangled itself with crypto companies, including Sam Bankman-Fried’s house of frauds, FTX and Alameda Research. Silvergate wound itself down voluntarily by the end of the first quarter. The second largest short position in a bank as of March 31 was in First Republic Bank, which failed on Monday.) PacWest Bancorp is showing similar distress. PacWest’s stock has lost 71 percent year-to-date. On Monday and Tuesday of this week, the stock has gone from a closing price of $10.15 on Friday to $6.55 at the close on Tuesday – a stunning collapse of 35 percent in just two trading sessions. Other banks that are targets of short sellers that have seen outsized year-to-date losses in share price include Western Alliance, Comerica, Zions Bank, Republic First Bancorp (no relation to First Republic Bank other than similarity of its name, which may be why short sellers have piled on). Those stocks are down anywhere from 45 to 60 percent year-to-date versus a decline of 27 percent in the regional bank index (ticker KRX). See chart above. The longer President Biden waits to sign an executive order suspending short sales in federally-insured banks, the faster the contagion will spread to other banks.
Canadian banks will have 'field day' with U.S. regional bank turmoil: Expert - Toronto-Dominion (TD) Bank has walked away from its planned acquisition of First Horizon Corp., but experts told BNN Bloomberg that the crisis among mid-sized U.S. banks may open up more buying opportunities for Canadian financial institutions. “These Canadian banks are going to have a field day in the United States over the next 12 months,” Dick Bove, chief financial strategist at Odeon Capital, said in a Thursday television interview. TD said both parties agreed to scrap the deal as it could not see a clear path to regulatory approval for the US$13.4-billion sale, which was announced in 2022 before central banks began hiking interest rates to fight inflation. Bove said he sees the failure of several U.S. regional banks and sensitivity of similar institutions as a direct result of that high interest rate environment brought on by the U.S. Federal Reserve’s aggressive monetary tightening cycle. That cycle continued on Wednesday with another quarter-point rate hike, days after U.S. regulators facilitated a deal for JPMorgan Chase & Co., the country’s largest lender, to buy troubled First Republic Bank. Bove said TD executives likely looked at the situation in the U.S. banking system and decided they could likely make better deals for similar banks at lower prices – and other Canadian banks may be able to cash in, too, as U.S. regulators may be seeking more stable buyers in the near future.“The United States regulators are going to be begging them to come in, because they have money, they're untainted by this, and they're going to have an ability to do considerable acquiring in this country, which they will do,” he said.
Banks' deposit insurance costs could soar after First Republic failure — The costly resolution anticipated for the failed First Republic Bank increases the odds that banks will have to pay higher deposit insurance premiums and a heavier special assessment — and diminishes the prospect that community banks will be off the hook, industry observers say. The seizure and sale of the San Francisco-based bank is the latest in a string of failures this year, following the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank in March. Unlike the prior two episodes, however, regulators were able to find a buyer for First Republic over the course of a weekend, allowing the bank to open as scheduled on Monday. But the sale includes a cost-sharing agreement between JPMorgan and Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. on certain loans in First Republic's former portfolio that the agency expects to contribute to a $13 billion hit to the Deposit Insurance Fund. Combined with the $22.5 billion of losses incurred on the failures of Silicon Valley and Signature banks, the DIF will be down roughly $35 billion on the year, and the FDIC will have to pass those costs on to banks one way or another. "This is going to be an interesting circumstance going forward," said Kathryn Judge, a law professor at Columbia University who specializes in financial regulation. "We have both a special assessment arising from the systemic risk exception and the need to replenish the DIF because it's fallen below the minimum. I would expect the FDIC to look at each of those challenges in connection with the other in proposing a course forward." The Deposit Insurance Fund had been a topic of concern for the FDIC before any of this spring's bank failures, with the agency approving increases to premiums banks pay for deposit insurance based on the influx of deposits banks took during the pandemic. The hit to the DIF from the First Republic deal likely means those heightened premiums are here to stay, according to Jaret Seiberg, Washington policy analyst at TD Cowen. "This $13 billion loss likely eliminates any prospect that the agency would delay the 2-basis-point hike in deposit insurance premiums that is effective with the June 30 billing cycle," Seiberg said in a policy note. Former FDIC lawyer Todd Phillips said the First Republic deal could also affect the FDIC's forthcoming special assessment to replenish the DIF after Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank's failures. While the special assessment was meant to replenish the fund because of the March bank failures, the FDIC may try to tack on the First Republic losses in the same stroke.
BankThink: First Republic's failure shows need for major deposit insurance reform | American Banker --Today's closure of First Republic Bank, triggered by massive losses in its asset portfolio and a subsequent bank run, and the unconditional guarantee of all of its deposits, must force a rigorous rethinking of both the current $250,000 deposit-insurance limit and the way that insurance is priced. As a practical matter, the federal government now guarantees all deposits in "systemically important" banks; i.e., all but small community banks. The magnitude of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp.'s loss in the First Republic failure will become clearer as it sells or collects on the loans and investments not assumed by JPMorgan Chase. Ultimately, the FDIC's loss will be the difference between what it is paying JPMorgan to assume all of the bank's deposits and what it nets in liquidating the bank's remaining assets and those liabilities not assumed by JPMorgan. Whatever the FDIC's ultimate loss, the clear implication is that the $250,000 deposit insurance limit is now a dead letter for large banks and should be for all banks. The notion that large depositors should rush to withdraw their deposits from a bank when they sense that it might fail — so-called depositor discipline — has about as much therapeutic value in deterring reckless banking as the long-abandoned medical practice of bloodletting had in ridding human bodies of disease. Bank runs are hardly therapeutic — instead, they merely drive a troubled bank deeper underwater, ensuring not only its failure, but also causing incalculable damage to many of the bank's borrowers. Especially harmed are businesses with lines of credit that get canceled when a bank is suddenly closed, forcing the borrower to scramble to find a replacement line of credit at another bank. Not only might such a business not survive, but its failure could harm its community, spreading the pain of the bank's failure to innocent parties, a point Jimmy Stewart made so poignantly in that famous banking movie, "It's a Wonderful Life." Although it never said so publicly, the FDIC has, as a practical matter, repealed the $250,000 insurance limit. Over the last ten years, there have been just four failures, out of 74 in all, in which the failed bank's deposits have not been fully protected against loss. Given how the FDIC has acted over the last decade, perhaps it should be renamed the Federal Deposit Unlimited Guarantee Corporation. Congress must recognize that bank regulations and their complement, bank supervision — the monitoring and criticizing of unsound banking practices by government employees — have repeatedly failed to perform satisfactorily, as we see so clearly today.
'Targeted' deposit insurance could work. But it will have to wait. — A recent Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. report pointed to increased deposit insurance coverage for certain business accounts as the most promising policy response to the recent spurt of bank failures. But so-called "targeted insurance" poses significant administrative challenges to work as intended, the agency said, and experts say that getting Congress to grant the FDIC the authority before the 2024 election is improbable. "The FDIC's quasi-recommendation that Congress increase coverage for business payment accounts is the kind of idea that could get substantial theoretical support in Congress but is unlikely to progress as Washington becomes consumed by the debt limit," said Ian Katz, policy analyst at Capital Alpha Partners. "We think that for a deposit insurance increase to become law it needs an external push, like another significant bank failure." The FDIC itself touted targeted insurance as a reasonable means of ensuring that if a bank fails, business clients of the bank aren't collateral casualties of that failure — as was the concern with Silicon Valley Bank's failure. Targeted insurance could diminish moral hazard and reduce the risk of bank runs, the FDIC report said. But any changes to deposit insurance requires Congress to act. "Business payment accounts are not currently defined in the structure of the deposit insurance system but must be identifiable for the viability of targeted coverage," said an FDIC official at a press conference discussing the report. "Any changes to deposit insurance coverage levels would require congressional action." While tailored coverage is the preferred path forward, the FDIC report also stressed that implementing such coverage — even with congressional buy-in — poses administrative challenges. The promise of higher insurance coverage may entice consumers to falsify eligibility, and the agency said targeted coverage could also risk moral hazard if banks compete for business deposits and disregard the risks those deposits can pose. "Individuals, trusts, or estates may exploit account definitions and adopt [employee identification numbers or tax identification numbers] to obtain higher coverage under targeted coverage," the report said. "In addition, banks and depositors may find other ways to circumvent restrictions placed on accounts with higher coverage. For instance, a bank may offer accounts with no interest but where loyalty 'points' can be accrued and redeemed for gift cards or even cash. Alternatively, or in conjunction, banks could offer lower loan rates to customers who have non-interest-bearing accounts."
FDIC recommends higher deposit insurance for business accounts — The Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. issued its report today on viable paths forward for deposit insurance in the wake of a string of midsize bank failures in March, and only hours after First Republic Bank was sold to JPMorgan Chase by the agency. In its report, the agency said there are three deposit insurance reform scenarios that it examined: maintaining the status quo, unlimited deposit insurance and targeted insurance. The agency asserted they are considering each option carefully, but showed a preference for targeted insurance, citing drawbacks to the alternatives. FDIC officials say maintaining the current system of deposit insurance will not adequately address run risk, and that unlimited deposit insurance introduces too much moral hazard into the economy because it would make banks less careful in their management practices. FDIC said the third reform — targeting deposit insurance for business accounts — could provide greater coverage to business accounts without the moral hazard unlimited insurance introduces, yielding substantial financial stability benefits relative to their cost. "Business payment accounts pose greater financial stability concerns than other accounts, given that the inability to access these accounts can result in broader economic effects," FDIC Chairman Martin Gruenberg said in a statement accompanying the report. "In addition, business payments accounts may pose a lower risk of moral hazard, because those account holders are less likely to view their deposits, using a risk-return tradeoff, than a depositor using the account for savings and investment purposes." The agency also made clear that each of the proposed options should be viewed alongside other policy changes, and said their effectiveness depends on the extent to which other policies are pursued simultaneously. They said any changes to deposit insurance levels would require congressional approval. However, even without new statutory authority, they say, they have limited tools that may work toward financial stability objectives and mitigate consequences in the interim.
FDIC plans to hit big banks with fees to refill Deposit Insurance Fund -The U.S. is poised to exempt smaller lenders from kicking in extra money to replenish the government's bedrock Deposit Insurance Fund, and instead saddle the biggest banks with much of the bill. The Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. is planning to release as soon as next week a highly anticipated proposal for refilling its Deposit Insurance Fund, which was partly depleted by the failures of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank, according to people familiar with the matter. Smaller lenders with less than $10 billion of assets wouldn't have to pay, said the people, who weren't authorized to discuss the deliberations. There were more than 4,000 institutions under that threshold at the end of last year, FDIC data show. Depending on the size of their deposit portfolio, some banks with as much as $50 billion of assets could also avoid the payments, which might be spread out over two years or paid at once, two of the people said. Under the plan, bigger lenders would all face the same fee structure, but could end up having to kick in more money because of balance sheet size and number of depositors, the people said. The riskiness of deposits won't be a factor. A political battle has been raging over who should be on the hook for refilling the fund after it was depleted by billions of dollars when the government took the extraordinary step of making all SVB and Signature depositors — even uninsured ones — whole. Smaller banks have lobbied hard to avoid paying the so-called special assessment fees, in addition to the contributions that all lenders make to fund quarterly. The FDIC declined to comment on its plans. Martin Gruenberg, the agency's chairman, has said he would give special consideration to the fee burden on smaller lenders. The fees, known as a special assessment, won't cover the estimated $13 billion of losses that will stem from the failure of First Republic Bank, two of the people said. That hit to the fund will be addressed via the quarterly fees that lenders kick into the fund. The DIF, as the fund is known, is a linchpin of the U.S. financial system as it's used to insure most accounts for up to $250,000. It's refilled by all insured banks paying quarterly fees known as assessments. The amount is based on formulas.
Fed's crackdown on small bank with underwater bonds may not be the last --For the first time during the two-month-old banking crisis, the Federal Reserve has taken a public enforcement action against a bank that saw its equity turn negative as a result of underwater bond investments. But the question is: Is this a one-time thing, or more of a trend? "They should use hammers more often, like this," said Bartlett Naylor, financial policy advocate at consumer advocacy group Public Citizen, adding that he welcomed the Fed "using its full suite of authorities to keep banks safe." The action against Du Quoin State Bank in southern Illinois cites severe shortcomings in its management of interest rate risks — the same vulnerabilities that played a key role in Silicon Valley Bank's failure. Other banks may be facing similar regulatory actions that are not yet public. Du Quoin moved the deposits that flooded through its doors during the pandemic into securities, mostly municipal bonds. It had accumulated some $103 million in securities by the end of 2021 — or 73% of its assets. That turned into trouble as the Fed hiked interest rates aggressively in 2022. Though the bank's equity is now back in the green — meaning its assets are now once again worth more than its liabilities — that was not the case last year. The value of its bonds had plunged 18% as long-term rates hit their peak last year, a loss that left the bank with negative equity. It didn't help that Du Quoin State Bank appeared to have invested in longer-term bonds, said bank consultant Bert Ely. Longer-term bonds appear more lucrative since they generally pay more than shorter-term securities, but they also suffer more when rates go up on newer bonds since the buyer is stuck with low-yielding assets for longer. "The farther out you go in the yield curve, the worse you're going to get whacked when rates get pushed up," Ely said. The bank did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
Muni broker-dealers are on new Oklahoma fossil fuel boycotter list -- Oklahoma's state treasurer tagged three of the nation's largest investment banks as fossil fuel industry boycotters, making them ineligible to do business, including municipal bond underwriting, with the state and local governments. Wells Fargo, JP Morgan Chase, and Bank of America are on an initial list released Wednesday of 13 financial institutions determined to be boycotting the oil and gas industry. "The energy sector is crucial to Oklahoma's economy, providing jobs for our residents and helping drive economic growth," Treasurer Todd Russ said in a statement. "It is essential for us to work with financial institutions that are focused on free-market principles and not beholden to social goals that override their fiduciary duties." The firms are ineligible for government contracts because they are engaged in "boycotts" of fossil fuel companies or they failed to reply to a questionnaire sent by the treasurer earlier this year, according to the statement, which noted companies may be added to or removed from the list every 90 days as an internal analysis continues. Oklahoma joins other states that have targeted fossil fuel boycotts. A 2021 Texas law resulted in 11 financial companies being put on a list that included only one muni underwriter, UBS, which was subsequently dropped from deals. Utah Gov. Spencer Cox in March signed anexpanded boycott bill that has a contract prohibition. A just-enacted Florida anti-ESG law could possibly thin the ranks of underwriters in that state. JP Morgan Chase called the Oklahoma treasurer's action "baseless," pointing out that as the largest U.S. bank it is a top financer in the energy sector including traditional energy sources. "Between 2021 and 2022 we provided over $2 billion in financing and other services to 40 Oklahoma companies in the oil and gas space," a statement from the bank said. "Our business practices are not in conflict with this anti-free market decision, and we look forward to continuing to serve customers and communities in Oklahoma."
FTX Gets Court Approval for LedgerX Sale at Massive Loss - A U.S. judge today said yes to the sale of FTX-owned derivatives trading platform LedgerX—at a massive loss. In a Thursday hearing, Judge John Dorsey quickly authorized the sale to private equity firm M7 Holdings. “Well, that was easy,” he said at the short hearing when no one voiced any objections. LedgerX CEO Zach Dexter wrote on Twitter that he was “very pleased” to announce that the U.S. Bankruptcy Court in Delaware had granted a motion permitting the sale. But the sale is the latest ignominious advancement in the FTX saga: FTX.US, which catered to American customers, snapped up derivatives exchange LedgerX back in August 2021 for nearly $300 million. Ex-FTX boss and now alleged criminal Sam Bankman-Fried told Decrypt last August how excited he was for the acquisition, claiming that bringing derivatives to American customers was “one of the most important things” the FTX brand did. Today’s greenlighted sale means it will now be sold for $50 million. The idea is to reimburse former clients who lost money in FTX’s colossal crash. The CFTC-regulated trading platform was one of the only FTX entities which remained solvent following FTX’s highly publicized Chapter 11 bankruptcy proceedings last November.FTX allowed people to buy, sell, and bet on the future price of digital assets. Its ex-boss and co-founder’s face was plastered on ads around San Francisco and appeared to be cozy with politicians—donating to both the Republicans and Democrats.
FTX Seeks to Claw Back $3.9 Billion in Cash, Crypto from Genesis – Bloomberg -FTX Group is seeking to claw back close to $3.9 billion of cash and crypto from bankrupt digital asset lenderGenesis Global Capital LLC and a non-bankrupt affiliate, GGC International Ltd. The funds relate to $1.8 billion of loans and $273 million of collateral given to Genesis Global Capital by Alameda Research Ltd., Sam Bankman-Fried’s defunct crypto trading house, shortly before it collapsed into bankruptcy alongside FTX, according to court papersfiled Wednesday.
FTX eyes $3.9 billion clawback from Genesis as major media outlets demand creditors be made public - Bankrupt cryptocurrency exchange FTX wants $3.9 billion back from bankrupt crypto lender Genesis Global Capital (GGC), according to a May 3 court filing. FTX lawyers are targeting $1.8 billion in loans and $273 million in pledged collateral which they claim were FTX customer funds transferred to Genesis from Alameda Research. FTX is also seeking the return of $1.6 billion in direct withdrawals from the exchange which they say were made by Genesis, along with an additional $213 million withdrawn by GGC International, the lender’s British Virgin Island subsidiary, prior to the FTX bankruptcy filing on Nov. 11, 2022. “Genesis was one of the main feeder funds for FTX and instrumental to its fraudulent business model,” the filing claims. “At one point in 2021, GGC had over $8 billion of outstanding loans to FTX Debtor Alameda Research Ltd. (“Alameda”). Unlike other FTX creditors and customers, Genesis was largely repaid.” FTX lawyers are claiming that $3.9 billion of that $8 billion constitute “avoidable transfers” under the law. “The Avoidance Actions will seek to claw back funds received by Genesis and non-debtor affiliates so that these funds can be shared with all other creditors of the FTX Debtors in the FTX Chapter 11 Cases,” they wrote. “These creditors include several million customers owed over $11 billion as of the time of filing of FTX Chapter 11 Cases.” U.S. bankruptcy law allows for the recouping of “avoidable transfers” that occur within the 90 days immediately preceding a company’s bankruptcy. FTX creditors were themselves the subject of another May 3 court filing, this one submitted by four of the most prominent media companies in the world, which seeks to lift the redaction order covering the list of erstwhile FTX customers, now current FTX creditors. The filing was made by The New York Times, Bloomberg, Dow Jones, and Financial Times, who jointly filed their objection to the redaction of non-U.S. FTX customers’ information. They argue that “there was no basis in the record for either (i) extending the 90-day Redaction Period […] or (ii) finding that public access to the names of FTX’s customer-creditors would expose them to undue risk of identity theft or other unlawful injury,” they wrote. “If being targeted by phishing emails and other fraud vectors were enough to justify sealing individuals’ names, then virtually every individual party to a bankruptcy proceeding could litigate anonymously,” they added. “Neither the First Amendment nor the Bankruptcy Code permits that outcome. And nothing in the record supports making a special exception for FTX’s individual customer creditors here.”
Crypto giant Binance is reportedly facing US probe for violating Russian sanctions - Binance is reportedly facing yet another investigation by the US Justice Department, and this time, it's over possible violations against sanctions imposed against Russia. According to Bloomberg, the agency is looking into whether the cryptocurrency exchange allowed Russian customers to move money as a way to go around USsanctions on the country's financial institutions. The news organizations' sources also said that Binance is discussing the possibility of settling with the DOJ regarding previous allegations that the exchange was also used to move money to circumvent US sanctions against Iran.If you'll recall, United States and the European Union imposed sanctions against Russian financial institutions following the invasion of Ukraine. Mykhailo Federov, Ukraine's Vice Prime Minister, asked major crypto exchanges to freeze all Russian and Belarusian accounts at the same time, but Binance was one of the companies thatrefused to do so. Back then, a spokesperson said that unilaterally banning people's access to cryptocurrency "would fly in the face of the reason why crypto exists," because it would affect ordinary users and not just Russian oligarchs. If the DOJ truly is looking into Binance's activities related to Russian sanctions, then it's merely one of the investigations the exchange is grappling with. The DOJ and the Internal Revenue Service started looking into reportsthat Binance is being used for money laundering schemes in 2021. And just earlier this year, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) charged Binance and its founder Changpeng Zhao (pictured above) for not asking users to verify their identities, offering unregistered crypto derivatives and for implementing measures to avoid US regulation. Binance told us at the time that it found the charges "unexpected and disappointing." This time, it told Bloomberg in a statement: "In 2021, Binance launched an initiative to completely overhaul its corporate governance structure, including bringing in a world-class bench of seasoned executives to fundamentally change how Binance operates globally." The spokesperson continued that the company now observes strict know-your-customer protocols similar to the ones employed by traditional banks. "Our policy," they said, "imposes a zero-tolerance approach to double registrations, anonymous identities, and obscure sources of money," While they didn't specifically address the allegations, the statement sounds like a denial that the company's service allowed Russian users to flout US sanctions.
FTX-ed Crypto Investors Are Moving Back to Hardware Wallets | WIRED - IT WASN’T LONG after the wheels fell off at FTX that the I-told-you-sos began. On November 11, the crypto exchange filed for bankruptcy, and billions of dollars worth of customers’ crypto was missing. How was this possible? Because FTX wasn’t just a place to trade tokens, it was where users stored them too. Weather-beaten veterans of the crypto industry will tell you that, in allowing a third-party to store coins on their behalf, the victims of the FTX collapse made a fatal mistake. “Not your keys, not your coins,” they like to say. They advocate instead for a system called self-custody, whereby people manage their own private crypto wallets, secured by secret alphanumeric keys. The message is now filtering through. One person with funds trapped in FTX, who asked to remain anonymous to preserve his financial privacy, says he now stores crypto in either a personal wallet or interest-bearing peer-to-peer contract. Another, who requested anonymity for the same reason, says he now keeps tokens on exchanges for only an hour at a time for trading and otherwise stores them himself. “Fuck Sam,” he says, referring to FTX CEO Sam Bankman-Fried. “But I should have managed my risk too.” Companies that supply devices for self-custody are profiting from the mayhem in the industry, including Ledger, one of the largest makers of hardware wallets. November, the month of the FTX collapse, became the most successful in the company’s history, according to its CEO, Pascal Gauthier. Between June 2022 and February 2023, amid the crypto turmoil, the firm sold 1 million units, having sold only 5 million in the previous eight years combined. Data from blockchain analytics firm Chainalysis shows that the collapse of FTX, Celsius, and other large crypto businesses corresponded in 2022 with sharp spikes in the travel of funds away from exchanges, into personal wallets. As did the sector’s banking crisis in March. The problem with storing crypto in a personal wallet, though, is that there’s no margin for error: Misplace the private key and 12-word recovery phrase and the crypto inside is lost forever. Famously, a British man suffered this fate when he mistakenly discarded a hard drive in 2013 that held the credentials for a wallet containing 7,500 bitcoin, worth $220 million at today’s prices. Estimates suggest that roughly 20 percent of all bitcoin, worth tens of billions of dollars, has been lost this way. “There is a significant user-experience problem in crypto—and a lot of that has to do with self-custody and key management,” says Hugh Brooks, director of security operations at blockchain security firm CertiK. FTX may have made storing crypto with an exchange “less appetizing,” he says, but “for the average user, self-custody is a much greater risk.” Beyond storing wallet credentials in email messages, digital notepads, and other insecure locations, Brooks explains, people are prone to forgetting where they put their recovery phrase—a simple human error, easily made. But the consequences of basic mistakes like this are “amped up exponentially” when crypto is involved, he says. In a worst-case scenario, life savings can be lost.
Business lending fraud still higher than before COVID, survey says -- Lenders to small- and medium-size businesses have seen fraud attempts increase since 2021. At the same time, their losses to such fraud, as a percentage of their revenue, has dropped. Still, those losses remain higher than prior to the pandemic, according to a survey released Wednesday. These lenders say the cost of fraud as a fraction of their overall revenues decreased from 6.2% in 2021 to 5.5% last year. In 2019, the rate was 4.2%. Nonbank digital lenders including fintechs continue to see greater losses than their institutional counterparts — 8% of revenue in 2021 and 7% in 2022. In 2019, the rate was 5.8%. At the same time, the amount of fraud attempted through these channels has also increased. Lenders reported a 14.5% increase in fraud from 2021 to 2022 on average. From 2019 to 2020, that increase was 4.1%, and from 2020 to 2021, it was 6.9%. Market research firm KS&R conducted the survey on behalf of fraud prevention company LexisNexis Risk Solutions. KS&R based its findings off 147 survey completions collected from September to October. SMB loan fraud skyrocketed early during the COVID-19 pandemic, when the U.S. extended Paycheck Protection Program loans through the Small Business Administration. The fintechs and financial institutions that administered these loans did not directly bear the costs, as the loans were government-backed, but they have been heavily criticized for allowing the fraudulent applications through. Many fraudsters see SMB loans as easier, less sophisticated targets than consumer loans, according to Tom Hunt, director of business risk strategy at LexisNexis Risk Solutions. Financial institutions have invested heavily in preventing consumer loan fraud, but they have not given the same degree of attention to SMB loans, he said. Defrauding business lenders can also be lucrative. "If you can defraud your way into an $80,000 line of credit, that's a lot of consumer credit cards that you would have to set up to get to that same number," Hunt said. Fraudsters who take advantage of SMB lenders can use consumer identity theft to take over or misrepresent ownership of a business, or they can lie about the nature of their business entity when applying for a loan. They can also do both. The business a fraudster uses to apply for a loan can lie on a spectrum of totally bogus to real and legitimate. In cases of a bogus business, the entity could have no prior records and no state registrations. Cases involving a legitimate business applying for a loan can involve a fraudster misrepresenting that they are the business owner.
SEC's Gensler blasts hedge fund fees as agency readies rules -- Gary Gensler is again blasting hedge funds and private equity firms for the fees they charge investors, as the Securities and Exchange Commission plows ahead with plans to boost oversight of the private fund industry. "Today, private fund advisors receive multiple levels and types of fees—from management to performance to portfolio company fees," the SEC chief said in remarks prepared for a Managed Funds Association trade group conference. "That's not to mention consulting, advisory, monitoring, servicing, transaction and director's fees, among others." Since taking over as the head of Wall Street's main regulator two years ago, Gensler has championed new regulations to add scrutiny to hedge funds and private equity firms. In one such move, the SEC is scheduled to vote Wednesday to require more detailed information in confidential forms that firms file with the agency each quarter. Separately, the SEC has floated making hedge funds and private equity firms include in quarterly reports to investors specific measures of performance and that account for all costs. Wall Street's main regulator has also proposed banning the firms from giving preferential treatment for certain investors, charging fees for services that aren't actually performed or limiting liability for breaching a fiduciary duty. For their part, industry lobbyists have been bracing for a fight, arguing that their investors are sophisticated and agree to fees ahead of time. Furthermore, Bryan Corbett, president and chief executive officer of MFA, which represents the hedge fund industry, has said some of the SEC's plans would actually harm investors.
Banks are finally admitting they have a problem with billions of dollars in looming real-estate defaults This earnings season, some major banks bucked tumult in the sector by raking in record revenues and surpassing Wall Street expectations. But a blemish is building on the balance sheets of a growing number of financial institutions, in the form of cash reserves that banks and other lenders are required to collect against expected loan losses — including souring debts tied to commercial real estate. The reserves, stagnant money that doesn't earn a return, place a drag on earnings, curtail lending, and show how hundreds of billions of dollars of problem real-estate assets, such as office buildings, are beginning to inflict wider financial damage. The US's four largest banks, Wells Fargo, JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, and Citibank, together now have $62.9 billion of such loss provisions, according to the debt-tracking firm Trepp's analysis of their recent first-quarter financial statements. That's a $12.6 billion increase in their reserves from six months ago, Trepp said. Some of the uptick is attributable to expected losses connected to commercial real estate. In its earnings release on April 14, Wells Fargo, for instance, said it had gathered $643 million in additional loss provisions during the quarter, in part, "for commercial real estate loans, primarily office loans." The bank separately disclosed $725 million of "non-accrual loans" tied to office assets — debts that are already delinquent on payments. That was a nearly fourfold increase in dollar volume of bad office loans over the previous quarter held by the bank. "The office market continues to show signs of weakness due to lower demand, higher financing costs, and challenging capital-market conditions," Wells Fargo's chief financial officer, Mike Santomassimo, said during the bank's earnings call. "While we haven't seen this translate to meaningful loss content yet, we expect to see more stress over time." Wells Fargo, JPMorgan Chase, and Bank of America are the nation's largest commercial-real-estate lenders in that order, and Citibank is the 16th biggest, according to a list compiled by Insider last month. "We're only in the early stages of a real-estate downturn, and we're starting to see a meaningful increase in loan-loss reserves,". "Unlike other cycles, where the market dipped and then began to recover, this is something that could continue for years." No area of the market is as troubled as the office segment, where the widespread adoption of remote work is crushing tenant demand. That, combined with rising interest rates and falling building values, has led to a growing wave of defaults, many triggered by expiring mortgages that have become impossible to replace with commensurate levels of debt. Green Street, a real-estate-data firm, estimated that top-tier office property values nationally had fallen at least 25% on average over the past year. Even some loans tied the nation's robust market for apartment buildings have faltered recently. Anderson said about $760 billion of office loans were held by banks, which amounts to roughly 35% of their commercial-real-estate debt. According to Trepp, $80 billion of those mortgages are set to expire this year and about $400 billion will mature over the next five years — more than any other segment of commercial real estate. There is about $1.2 trillion of office debt in total when factoring in securitized loans and mortgages held by investment funds and specialty lenders, Anderson said — suggesting the exposure reached beyond banks.
Small Utah bank is again in 'substantial noncompliance' with CRA --Liberty Bank, a small lender in Salt Lake City, says it's working on improving its standing after regulators again determined that it was in "substantial noncompliance" with the Community Reinvestment Act. The Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. also said that it "identified an illegal credit practice" during its review of the bank's compliance with the CRA, a law that looks to ensure banks serve low- and moderate-income people in their area. Liberty Bank's practices harmed a majority of its mortgage borrowers, the agency said in a report. The agency did not specify what the illegal practice was, but it said the bank violated a law that protects consumers against unfair or deceptive practices. Kendall Phillips, the bank's president and CEO, said in an email that the $11.6 million-asset bank is "working with regulators, third-party auditors and consumers to complete corrective action for our mortgage customers." "All policies and practices have been corrected to satisfy the deficiencies," Phillips said. The FDIC wrote the report back in August 2022, but it didn't release the findings publicly until this week. In the report, the FDIC said that Liberty had "not completed corrective action to address the violation" and had not committed to doing so. The agency also said the bank did not have sufficient policies and training in place "to prevent illegal credit practices." The allegedly illegal practice did not harm the bank's CRA rating, which would have been at the lowest possible level regardless, "considering the bank's already substantially deficient performance," the agency said. The bank had gotten a "substantial noncompliance" rating in its 2021 examination, and the latest exam makes it the first FDIC-supervised bank in nearly six years to receive a rock-bottom CRA rating twice in a row, according to FDIC data.
Fed cites interest rate risk in community bank enforcement action --The Federal Reserve Board of Governors issued an enforcement action against an Illinois community bank, citing concerns about liquidity and interest rate risk management, among other issues. The Fed entered into a written agreement with Du Quoin, Illinois-based Du Quoin State Bank and its holding company, Perry County Bancorp Inc., on April 26. The agreement did not specify the issues at the $137 millon-asset bank, but noted that multiple "deficiencies" were identified during a recent exam by supervisors from the Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis. Until the various regulatory issues are resolved, the bank will be prohibited from taking on debt, redeeming its own stock or paying out dividends or distributions without the approval of state and federal regulators. It will also be barred from buying or selling assets that would exceed 5% of its total assets without its regulators signing off. The root cause of Du Quoin State Bank's issues were not discussed in the 10-page written agreement. Such enforcement actions generally do not include summaries of bank shortcomings, but rather focus solely on the requirements being imposed. Du Quoin could not immediately be reached for comment on Thursday. Still, the order comes at a time when supervisors, and particularly the Fed, are on high alert for both interest rate risks and problems with liquidity management. Both issues have played a central role in the recent bank crisis, contributing to the failures of Silicon Valley Bank, Signature Bank and First Republic Bank in the past two months.
Blackstone's BREIT Suffers Sixth Consecutive Month Of Withdraws As CRE Deteriorates -- Blackstone has limited investor redemption requests from its $70 billion real estate trust for high-net wealth investors for six consecutive months while storm clouds gather over commercial real estate markets.According to an investor letter published Monday, the CRE giant and the world's largest commercial landlord said investors asked to pull out more than $4.5 billion in April from Blackstone Real Estate Income Trust (BREIT). Out of the request, the firm only allowed $1.3 billion to be withdrawn, or approximately 29% of the amount requested. The firm restricts withdrawals to about 5% a quarter, or about 2% monthly caps, leaving investors with a narrower path out of the non-trade REIT. "We remain confident that BREIT's portfolio will continue to be well-positioned to deliver strong long-term performance and consistent distributions, while providing investors access to the diversification benefits of high-quality real estate as a core portfolio holding," Blackstone told investors. However, if this were the case, why do BREIT investors continue to panic exit? Recall last December, Blackstone sent a letter to financial advisors to keep their clients calm. Read the bizarre letter here. The continued high level of withdrawal requests is an ominous sign that investors are limiting their exposure to the CRE space, as higher borrowing costs risk sending some commercial property values into a tailspin. We've pointed out ("New "Big Short" Hits Record Low As Focus Turns To $400 Billion CRE Debt Maturity Wall") that the regional banking crisis kick-started the coming CRE turmoil. JPM, Morgan Stanley, and Goldman Sachs have all joined the CRE gloom parade.
CFPB warns debt collectors on zombie seconds --The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau put out an advisory opinion warning that debt collectors seeking balances, interest and fees on long-ago defaulted piggyback second-lien loans are violating the Fair Debt Collections Protection Act.The zombie second mortgages (in which a first lien and a second lien are made simultaneously) were the subject of an April 26 field hearing in Brooklyn, New York."We see how often the system is not working for homeowners," CFPB Director Rohit Chopra said in his opening remarks. "But instead of creating wealth, it's really about 'how can I figure out ways to drain it?'"The CFPB announcement was made the same day the U.S. Supreme Court heard arguments in a home equity case involving excess proceeds held by the local government after a tax sale.Lately, the regulator, along with New York Attorney General Letitia James, have received complaints from consumers who originally took the second liens in order to push their loan-to-value ratio to 80% and bypass down payment or mortgage insurance requirements. The borrowers were contacted for repayment even though no communication has taken place since they originally defaulted on this note.James said her office has seen an increasing number of complaints regarding debt collection attempts, describing Brooklyn as the epicenter for those efforts."I find this practice predatory and abusive and an affront to the American dream of sustainable homeownership," James said. "Debt buyers are seeking to extract wealth, particularly from communities of color, that should belong to the homeowners, not private equity firms and debt buyers."
BankThink: No, FHFA is not encouraging a race to the bottom -- Recently, the Federal Housing Finance Agency, acting in its capacity as conservator of Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae, made some modest changes in the pricing of mortgage risk. These modest changes in pricing have created a firestorm of reactions. Even The Wall Street Journal's editorial board weighed in decrying the cross-subsidies and income redistribution effects of these changes. Having spent a lifetime and then some analyzing and pricing mortgage risk, I was amused and chalked up the intensity of the reaction to Washington politics and vested interests protecting profits. But it is useful to peel back the rhetoric and discuss a few fundamental policy issues. When viewed through this lens, FHFA's recently announced changes to loan-level price adjustments (LLPAs) are consistent with safety and soundness and the charter purposes of the government-sponsored enterprises. I will focus on three key questions. First, do the GSEs need to earn the same return on equity on each loan they purchase to remain profitable and present a low risk to the taxpayers? Of course not. The GSEs offered one flat guarantee fee which applied to all borrowers for many years. LLPAs only began in 2008 when the GSEs wanted additional revenue to bolster earnings. The issue of profitability and risk relate to the entire company, and the questions we should be asking are what are the profits, and what is the overall leverage in the firm relative to risk? In 2008, The GSEs were charging too little (0.15 percentage points on their outstanding loan portfolios) and held only 0.45 percentage points of capital against credit risk. Second, should financial firms set pricing to earn the same return on regulatory capital for each asset? Of course not. Regulatory capital is just one measure of economic risk to shield firms from unexpected losses. There are many other considerations on how firms price, including leverage ratios, demand elasticities, competition, etc. Would JPMorgan Chase use the Basel accords as the sole basis for all its pricing decisions? There is no evidence that the new FHFA pricing deviates from its recently enacted risk-based capital framework, but even if it did, that would not be a cause for concern. Finally, what additional considerations beyond credit risk need to enter into GSE pricing decisions? First, prepayment risk. It always baffles me that LLPAs factor in credit risk but not prepayment risk. Prepayment risk is the risk that borrowers pays off their mortgage earlier or later than expected. An early prepayment leads to an overall lower principal and interest income stream over the life of the loan, reducing that loan's overall profitability. Because lower-credit-score individuals don't prepay as quickly as higher-credit-score individuals, the net impact of lower-credit individuals on a company's returns and performance is complicated. Second, the GSE charters direct them to consider setting lower return targets for low- and moderate-income families. Third, as often has been noted, pricing affects what loans go to the Federal Housing Administration vs. the GSEs. Policymakers may want to consider this. When I headed FHA, I vehemently argued against risk-based pricing at FHA because it would unnecessarily expand FHA's footprint.
Biden Punishes Responsibility As New Mortgage Equity Program Begins -Starting today, the Federal Housing Finance Agency's mortgage pricing adjustments will increase fees for borrowers with high credit scores while reducing costs for those with subpar credit scores. This upside-down policy is blatantly socialism, and one can't help but wonder if anyone in the Biden administration learned anything from the subprime mortgage meltdown that occurred more than a decade ago. As part of the Biden administration's plan to make housing affordable for everyone (we've seen this story before), upfront fees for loans backed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac will be adjusted based on the borrower's credit score. Borrowers with high credit scores will pay more in fees, while those with lower credit scores will pay less. The Wall Street Journal cited data from Evercore ISI that shows borrowers with credit scores between 720-759 who make around 15-20% down payments will see loan-level pricing adjustment (LLPA) costs rise by .750%. Inversely, under the new adjustments, risky borrowers with a credit score below 639 and who put down only 5% of the value of their home will only have to pay 1.750%, compared with 3.750% under old rules. Backlash over LLPA changes prompted the FHFA to publish a statement last week, calling such concerns "a fundamental misunderstanding." The Biden administration ensures the new changes are meant to help those with poor credit scores obtain homes amid the worst housing affordability in a generation. According to the FHFA, the new adjustments will redistribute funds to reduce the interest rate costs paid by risky borrowers. This sounds like socializing home buying to us. Even more alarming is data from the American Enterprise Institute found that default rates of Fannie/Freddie owner-occupied 30-year fixed-rate purchase loans acquired in 2006-2007 were between 39.3% and 56.2% for borrowers with credit scores between 620 and 639 and less than 4% down payments. Those with credit scores between 720 and 769 and 20% down payments had default rates between 4.2% and 8.8%. The Biden administration is subsidizing irresponsibility, rewarding failure, and discriminating against people with high credit scores.Meanwhile, 27 states revolted against Biden's mortgage redistribution rule to subsidize risky borrowers...
New York looks to strengthen deed theft laws - Members of the New York State Legislature introduced two bills looking to strengthen existing legal protections against deed theft."Victims of deed theft are often older adults and people of color who are asset rich but cash poor," state Attorney General Letitia James said in a press release. "This legislation will provide real and necessary changes to our civil and criminal laws to stop the perpetrators of these crimes and provide the protections and remedies needed to keep people in their homes."In December, James brought charges against five people, including a mortgage loan officer, accusing them in a 30-count indictment where if convicted the top charge has a maximum jail time of 15 years.The New York City Sheriff has recorded 3,500 complaints of deed theft since 2014, with more than 1,500 of those coming from Brooklyn and 1,000 from Queens.But in the press release, James noted that deed theft in and of itself is not a crime. In a 2021 casebrought by James, the allegations included residential mortgage fraud, possession of stolen property, falsifying business records and scheme to defraud.One of the bills establishes that deed theft is a criminal act, creating two new felonies: a Class C crime for the theft of one real property; and Class B offense that covers a single residential property or two or more real properties.If convicted of the more serious charge, deed theft in the first degree, the mandatory sentence is one-to-three years in prison, with a maximum of 25 years.
20 banks with the largest mortgage servicing volume in Q4 | National Mortgage News The top five banks in the list have a combined MSR volume of more than $28 billion at the end of the fourth quarter of 2022. Many servicers saw an increase between Q3 and Q4, with one seeing a rise of 1,192.31%.This ranking is based upon MortgageStats data drawn from uniform bank performance reports filed to the Federal Financial Institutions Examination Council.Scroll through to see which mortgage servicers are in the top 20 and how they fared in Q4. (20 graphics)
Year-over-year Rent Growth Continues to Decelerate --Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Year-over-year Rent Growth Continues to Decelerate: A brief excerpt: Tracking rents is important for understanding the dynamics of the housing market. For example, the sharp increase in rents helped me deduce that there was a surge in household formation in 2021 (See from September 2021: Household Formation Drives Housing Demand). This has been confirmed (mostly due to work-from-home), and also led to the supposition that household formation would slow sharply now (mostly confirmed) and that asking rents might decrease in 2023 on a year-over-year basis.This is important for understanding housing, but also for monetary policy. Asking rents reflect new leases, whereas most rental units see annual rent increases. These annual increases are captured by the consumer price index (CPI) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) prices. So, shelter in CPI is significantly lagged to asking rents.But there is more! Once we understand that asking rents will likely be flat to down year-over-year - due to the slowdown in household formation and more supply coming on the market - this suggests shelter in the CPI could be flat in the future. That means we shouldn’t just look at various measures ex-shelter, but we should assume shelter will be lower than overall inflation in the future!...Here is a graph of the year-over-year (YoY) change for these measures since January 2015. Most of these measures are through March 2023, except CoreLogic is through February and Apartment List is through April 2023....The CoreLogic measure is up 5.0% YoY in February, down from 5.7% in January, and down from a peak of 13.9% in April 2022.The Zillow measure is up 6.0% YoY in March, down from 6.3% YoY in February, and down from a peak of 16.9% YoY in February 2022.The Apartment List measure is up 1.7% YoY as of April, down from 2.4% in March, and down from a peak of 18.3% YoY November 2021....My view is it is likely that we will see a year-over-year decline in asking rents sometime in 2023.
Construction Spending Increased 0.3% in March - From the Census Bureau reported that overall construction spending increased:Construction spending during March 2023 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $1,834.7 billion, 0.3 percent above the revised February estimate of $1,829.6 billion. The March figure is 3.8 percent above the March 2022 estimate of $1,768.2 billion.Both private and public spending increased:Spending on private construction was at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $1,435.1 billion, 0.3 percent above the revised February estimate of $1,430.8 billion. ...In March, the estimated seasonally adjusted annual rate of public construction spending was $399.6 billion, 0.2 percent above the revised February estimate of $398.8 billion.This graph shows private residential and nonresidential construction spending, and public spending, since 1993. Note: nominal dollars, not inflation adjusted.Residential (red) spending is 12.4% below the recent peak.Non-residential (blue) spending is at a new peak.Public construction spending is at a new peak.The second graph shows the year-over-year change in construction spending.On a year-over-year basis, private residential construction spending is down 10.0%. Non-residential spending is up 21.3% year-over-year. Public spending is up 15.0% year-over-year.This was slightly above consensus expectations of a 0.2% increase in spending; however, construction spending for the previous two months was revised down (all private residential).
Vehicles Sales at 15.91 million SAAR in April; Up 11.4% YoY -- Wards Auto released their estimate of light vehicle sales for April: U.S. Light-Vehicle Sales Continue to Surprise on High Side (pay site). Wards Auto estimates sales of 15.91 million SAAR in April 2023 (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate), up 7.4% from the March sales rate, and up 11.4% from April 2022. This graph shows light vehicle sales since 2006 from the BEA (blue) and Wards Auto's estimate for April (red). The impact of COVID-19 was significant, and April 2020 was the worst month. After April 2020, sales increased, and were close to sales in 2019 (the year before the pandemic). However, sales decreased in 2021 due to supply issues. The "supply chain bottom" was in September 2021.The second graph shows light vehicle sales since the BEA started keeping data in 1967. Vehicle sales are usually a transmission mechanism for Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) policy, although far behind housing. This time vehicle sales were more suppressed by supply chain issues and have picked up recently Sales in April were well above the consensus forecast.
Wholesale Used Car Prices Decreased in April; Down 4.4% Year-over-year - From Manheim Consulting today: Wholesale Used-Vehicle Prices See Sizable Decline in April: Wholesale used-vehicle prices (on a mix, mileage, and seasonally adjusted basis) decreased 3.0% in April from March. The Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index (MUVVI) dropped to 230.8, down 4.4% from a year ago.“While values increased 8.6% through the first quarter from December, the market has reversed course in April, with our monthly figures showing a month-over-month decline for the first time in 2023,” said Chris Frey, senior manager of Economic and Industry Insights for Cox Automotive. “Values in April also continue to be lower year over year. We’ve experienced eight straight months of year-over-year declines, averaging 8.3%, and it’s likely not over yet. During the financial crisis, we had 16 months of annualized declines, averaging 5.8%. Though I’m not predicting doom, we’ve surely started a second, and more rapid, decent off the pandemic peak of January 2022.”This index from Manheim Consulting is based on all completed sales transactions at Manheim’s U.S. auctions.The Manheim index suggests used car prices decreased in April (seasonally adjusted) and were down 4.4% year-over-year (YoY).
Heavy Truck Sales Up Sharply Year-over-year in April --The BEA released their estimate of vehicle sales for April this morning.This graph shows heavy truck sales since 1967 using data from the BEA. The dashed line is the April 2023 seasonally adjusted annual sales rate (SAAR).Heavy truck sales really collapsed during the great recession, falling to a low of 180 thousand SAAR in May 2009. Then heavy truck sales increased to a new all-time high of 570 thousand SAAR in April 2019.Note: "Heavy trucks - trucks more than 14,000 pounds gross vehicle weight." Heavy truck sales declined sharply at the beginning of the pandemic, falling to a low of 308 thousand SAAR in May 2020. Heavy truck sales were at 563 thousand SAAR in April, up from 486 thousand in March, and up 23% from 456 thousand SAAR in April 2022. Usually, heavy truck sales decline sharply prior to a recession. Sales were strong in April.
AAR: April Rail Carloads Increased, Intermodal Decreased Year-over-year - From the Association of American Railroads (AAR) Rail Time Indicators. Rail intermodal continues to struggle. U.S. intermodal volume was 12.7% lower in April 2023 than in April 2022. April’s decline was the 14th straight and 20th in the past 21 months. In 2023 through April, volume was 3.97 million containers and trailers, down 10.9% (484,228) from last year and the fewest for January to April since 2012. Year-to-date container volume was down 9.5%; trailer volume was down 28.3%. Trailers accounted for 5.8% of intermodal units In the first four months of 2023, a record low. Meanwhile, carloads were better: total originated carloads on U.S. railroads in April were up 1.8% over April 2022 and averaged 234,159 per week — the most in six months. Year-to-date total carloads were 3.93 million, up 0.6% over the first four months of 2022 and the most for January to April since 2019. This graph from the Rail Time Indicators report shows the six-week average of U.S. Carloads in 2021, 2022 and 2022:Originated carloads on U.S. railroads in April 2023 totaled 936,637, up 1.8% over April 2022. Total carloads averaged 234,159 per week in April 2023, the most in six months.For the first four months of 2023, total carloads were 3.93 million, up 0.6% (23,161 carloads) over the first four months of 2022 and the most for January to April since 2019.The second graph shows the six-week average (not monthly) of U.S. intermodal in 2021, 2022 and 2023: (using intermodal or shipping containers):U.S. railroads originated 945,313 intermodal containers and trailers in April 2023, down 12.7% (137,879 units) from April 2022. April’s decline was the 14th straight for intermodal. Originations averaged 236,328 units per week in April 2023, the most in five months.In 2023 through April, intermodal volume was 3.97 million units, down 10.9% (484,228) from last year and the fewest for January to April since 2012.Trade Deficit decreased to $64.2 Billion in March -The Census Bureau and the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported:The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that the goods and services deficit was $64.2 billion in March, down $6.4 billion from $70.6 billion in February, revised.March exports were $256.2 billion, $5.3 billion more than February exports. March imports were $320.4 billion, $1.1 billion less than February imports.Exports increased and imports decreased in March.Exports are up 5% year-over-year; imports are down 9% year-over-year. Both imports and exports decreased sharply due to COVID-19 and then bounced back - but imports have been decreasing recently.The second graph shows the U.S. trade deficit, with and without petroleum.The blue line is the total deficit, and the black line is the petroleum deficit, and the red line is the trade deficit ex-petroleum products.Note that net, exports of petroleum products are positive and have picked up.The trade deficit with China decreased to $16.6 billion in March, from $34.0 billion a year ago. The trade deficit was close to the consensus forecast
ISM® Manufacturing index Increased to 47.1% in April -The ISM manufacturing index indicated contraction. The PMI® was at 47.1% in March, up from 46.3% in March. The employment index was at 50.2%, up from 46.9% last month, and the new orders index was at 45.7%, up from 44.3%.From ISM: Manufacturing PMI® at 47.1% April 2023 Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®Economic activity in the manufacturing sector contracted in April for the sixth consecutive month following a 28-month period of growth, say the nation's supply executives in the latest Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®.“The April Manufacturing PMI® registered 47.1 percent, 0.8 percentage point higher than the 46.3 percent recorded in March. Regarding the overall economy, this figure indicates a fifth month of contraction after a 30-month period of expansion. The New Orders Index remained in contraction territory at 45.7 percent, 1.4 percentage points higher than the figure of 44.3 percent recorded in March. The Production Index reading of 48.9 percent is a 1.1-percentage point increase compared to March’s figure of 47.8 percent. The Prices Index registered 53.2 percent, up 4 percentage points compared to the March figure of 49.2 percent. The Backlog of Orders Index registered 43.1 percent, 0.8 percentage point lower than the March reading of 43.9 percent. The Employment Index elevated into expansion territory, registering 50.2 percent, up 3.3 percentage points from March’s reading of 46.9 percent. The Supplier Deliveries Index figure of 44.6 percent is 0.2 percentage point lower than the 44.8 percent recorded in March; this is the index’s lowest reading since March 2009 (43.2 percent). The Inventories Index dropped 1.2 percentage points to 46.3 percent, lower than the March reading of 47.5 percent. The New Export Orders Index reading of 49.8 percent is 2.2 percentage points higher than March’s figure of 47.6 percent. The Imports Index remained in contraction territory, though just barely, at 49.9 percent, 2 percentage points above the 47.9 percent reported in March.This suggests manufacturing contracted in April. This was slightly above the consensus forecast.
ISM Manufacturing Screams Stagflation, Still Contracting With Reigniting Inflationary Pressures – Following S&P Global's manufacturing survey's surprise jump in the flash data, the 50.4 print has dropped intra-month to 50.2 (still back in expansion)
- S&P Global US Manufacturing final April print of 50.2, down from 50.4 flash, up from 49.2 in March - highest since Oct 2022
- ISM US Manufacturing April print of 47.1, up from 46.3 prior (and betyer than the expected 46.8) - but still in contraction (sub-50).
Given the notable slide in the US macro surprise index Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, said: “US manufacturing output has regained some encouraging momentum at the start of the second quarter, having stabilised in March after four months of decline. “While the upturn is in part linked to greatly improved supply chains, helping reduce backlogs of orders, April also saw a welcome upturn in new order inflows for the first time since last September. “Although only modest, the rise in new orders hints at a tentative revival of demand, notably from consumers but there are also signs that fewer customers are deliberately winding down their inventory levels. “The brightening demand picture was accompanied by a lifting of business confidence about the outlook and increased hiring. The downside was a reigniting of inflationary pressures, with a stronger order book encouraging more firms to pass through higher costs to customers.” Economic activity in the manufacturing sector contracted in April for the sixth consecutive month following a 28-month period of growth, say the nation's supply executives in the latest Manufacturing ISM Report.
ISM® Services Index Increases to 51.9% in April-- The ISM® Services index was at 51.9%, up from 51.2% last month. The employment index decreased to 50.8%, from 51.3%. Note: Above 50 indicates expansion, below 50 in contraction. From the Institute for Supply Management: Services PMI® at 51.9% April 2023 Services ISM® Report On Business® Economic activity in the services sector expanded in April for the fourth consecutive month as the Services PMI® registered 51.9 percent, say the nation’s purchasing and supply executives..: “In April, the Services PMI® registered 51.9 percent, 0.7 percentage point higher than March’s reading of 51.2 percent. The composite index indicated growth in April for the fourth consecutive month after a reading of 49.2 percent in December, the first contraction since May 2020 (45.4 percent). The Business Activity Index registered 52 percent, a 3.4-percentage point decrease compared to the reading of 55.4 percent in March. The New Orders Index expanded in April for the fourth consecutive month after contracting in December for the first time since May 2020; the figure of 56.1 percent is 3.9 percentage points higher than the March reading of 52.2 percent.“The Supplier Deliveries registered 48.6 percent, 2.8 percentage points higher than the 45.8 percent recorded in March.“The Prices Index was up 0.1 percentage point in April, to 59.6 percent. The Inventories Index contracted in April after two consecutive months of growth preceded by eight straight months of contraction; the reading of 47.2 percent is down 5.6 percentage points from March’s figure of 52.8 percent. The Inventory Sentiment Index (48.9 percent, down 9 percentage points from March’s reading of 57.9 percent) contracted after four consecutive months of growth preceded by a four-month period of contraction.The PMI was slightly above expectations.
Services Survey Show Growth In April But Export Demand Is "Reigniting Inflationary Pressures" --Despite hard data disappointment, soft survey data for Manufacturing showed an improvement in April and analysts expected the Services sector to do the same with modest gains.
- S&P Global US Services PMI printed 53.6 in April, up from 52.6 in March (but down from the flash print of 53.7)
- ISM Services printed 51.9 in April, up from 51.2 in March, better than the 51.8 expected
Graphs Source: Bloomberg. Under the hood, ISM data shows a rebound in export orders, slowing in employment, and prices sticky (up from last month marginally) Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, said:"April saw an encouraging acceleration of service sector growth which, combined with indications of a renewed upturn in manufacturing, suggests the economy has regained some momentum at the start of the second quarter. "Companies have reported an improvement in confidence compared to the gloomier picture seen late last year, with service sector companies also benefiting from a post-pandemic tailwind of spending shifting from goods to services, notably among consumers. "However, there are indications that resurgent demand for services is reigniting inflationary pressures. Average rates charged for services are now rising at the sharpest rate for eight months, as firms report a greater ability to pass increased costs on to customers. This upturn in the service sector selling price gauge hints at a concerningly stubborn stickiness of core inflation. Finally, Williamson pours some serious cold water on the hope narrative: "Much of course depends on whether this recovery in demand can persist. Headwinds from higher interest rates and the increased costs of living, combined with the winding down of household savings, suggest the upturn could lose steam in the months ahead." The S&P Global US Composite PMI Output Index posted 53.4 in April, up from 52.3 in March, to signal a solid upturn in private sector business activity.
March JOLTS Update: Job Openings Fall to Nearly 2-Year Low - The latest job openings and labor turnover summary (JOLTS) report showed that job openings fell to 9.590 million in March, the lowest since April 2021. This number comes in below the Investing.com forecast of 9.775 million. Additionally, the quit rate inched down to 2.5% while hires and total separations remained stead at 4.0% and 3.8%, respectively.From the press release:The number of job openings decreased to 9.6 million on the last business day of March, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the month, the number of hires and total separations were little changed at 6.1 million and 5.9 million, respectively. Within separations, quits (3.9 million) changed little, while layoffs and discharges (1.8 million) increased. This release includes estimates of the number and rate of job openings, hires, and separations for the total nonfarm sector, by industry, and by establishment size class.The JOLTS report is a monthly survey of job openings, hiring, and job separations (quits, layoffs, discharges) released by the BLS. Unlike the unemployment rate that measures the supply side of the labor market, JOLTS data helps gauge labor demand.The chart below shows the monthly data points of the four components of the JOLTS series. They are quite volatile, hence the inclusion of six-month moving averages to help identify the trends. The moving average for openings was above the hires levels for over five years starting in 2015, as seen in the chart below. The openings MA briefly dipped below the hires for two months (May and June 2020), only to climb above once more in July 2020. Over the last year, job openings, hires, and quits have all been trending down with job openings moving downwards the fastest. During that same time, layoffs and discharges have been slowly trending upwards.For comparison, here is the monthly BLS Employment Situation Summary charted with JOLTS data:
Companies Rebalance their Workforce after the Excesses: Still the Most Astonishing Labor Market by Wolf Richter - Companies started to rebalance their workforce, after the chaos and excesses of the pandemic. The information sector, where the layoff announcements are concentrated, worked off the entire pandemic pile of excesses, and companies started to hire again. Other sectors are still short on staff, such as teaching, or in the leisure and hospitality industry, where low wages, odd hours, and split shifts have induced workers to look for the greener grass elsewhere. In manufacturing, demand for workers is still historically high, but has come down from the astronomical zone. Retail normalized last year. So overall, job openings fell again in March, but were still 31% higher than in March 2019, the last “normal” March, based on data from the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS), released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics today. This is not based on job postings, but on surveys sent to 21,000 businesses, asking them about their actual workforce details. Companies rebalance job openings, after the excesses of the past two years. Job openings in March at 9.59 seasonally adjusted – and at 9.36 million not seasonally adjusted – were still above the Good Times trend before the pandemic (green line). But you can see the craziness that ensued in 2021, and how companies are now systematically working off the excesses. The chart shows the three-month moving average not seasonally adjusted: Hiring has been in the same range since October. The three-month moving average in March dipped to 6.21 million newly hired workers, roughly where it had been in October 2022: Rebalancing is taking place via layoffs and discharges, but they still remain very low. The three-month moving average of layoffs and discharges rose to 1.69 million in March, now reaching the low end of the range during the Good Times. Companies always discharge people for a variety of reasons; when these discharges are deemed to be for economic reasons, they’re considered layoffs. During the Good Times before the pandemic, actual layoffs and discharges averaged around 1.8 million per month. These are actual layoffs and discharges by employers in the US, not announcements of global layoffs that may not even take place in the US. Churn in the workforce subsides. Has all this talk about layoffs had the effect that fewer people are quitting? Or is it that better jobs have gotten a little scarcer, and the grass isn’t much greener on the other side of the fence? Voluntary quits have been on decline for months. The trend from the bottom during the employment crisis in 2009 through the Good Times in February 2020 had risen steadily, as job opportunities got better and more plentiful. Quits in 2019 exceeded historic highs. Then came the pandemic and all the gyrations in the labor market, and now the number of quits is still 10% above 2019, but has been below the Good Times trend line (green line). There is still a lot of churn in the labor market, but not nearly as much as there was: Professional and business services, a big category with 22.4 million employees, include Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services; Management of Companies and Enterprises; Administrative and Support, and Waste Management and Remediation Services. Some of the tech and social media companies are in this category (others are in “information” or in other categories). The huge number of job openings has deflated some but remains very high. The three-month moving average, at 1.89 million, is still up by 38% from the same period in 2019: “Information” is a small sector with 3 million employees at companies engaged in web search portals, data processing, data transmission, information services, software publishing, motion picture and sound recording, broadcasting including over the Internet, and telecommunications. So this is kind of funny. But that’s how it works. Job openings started plunging in mid-2022 through December, the worst plunge since the Dotcom Bust. But then they rose, and in March they rose for the third month in a row, and sharply, to 187,000 opening. These three monthly rises in a row caused the three-month moving average to jump. In other words, even while mass-layoffs are still being implemented, companies are now looking for the right workers again – and there are still a lot of job openings in that sector, just not the crazy levels of early 2022.
ADP: Private Employment Increased 296,000 in April --From ADP: ADP National Employment Report: Private Sector Employment Increased by 296,000 Jobs in April; Annual Pay was Up 6.7% Private sector employment increased by 296,000 jobs in April and annual pay was up 6.7 percent year-over-year, according to the April ADP® National Employment ReportTM produced by the ADP Research Institute® in collaboration with the Stanford Digital Economy Lab (“Stanford Lab”)....“The slowdown in pay growth gives the clearest signal of what's going on in the labor market right now,” said Nela Richardson, chief economist, ADP. “Employers are hiring aggressively while holding pay gains in check as workers come off the sidelines. Our data also shows fewer people are switching jobs.” This was way above the consensus forecast of 135,000. The BLS report will be released Friday, and the consensus is for 178 thousand non-farm payroll jobs added in April.
ADP Payrolls Unexpectedly Surge To 9 Month High Amid "Clear Slowdown In Pay Growth" - Following yesterday's ugly JOLTS data, which was so bad it actually sent stocks lower amid fears of a hard landing, moments ago the ADP - always one to surprise with its shocking wrong data, constant revisions notwithstanding - shocked when it printed showing a huge gain for April private payrolls, which more than doubled from a downward revised 142K print in March to 296K in April.The April number was not only far above the consensus estimate of 148K and also above the highest forecast of 220K, it was also the biggest monthly increase since July 2022.While job gains were mostly uniform, there was some regional weakness in the South where 100,000 jobs were lost. Additionally, there was a drop in Manufacturing workers (-38,000), as well as Financial activities (-28,000) and Professional Business services (-16,000).But while the jump in jobs was a hawkish twist ahead of today's FOMC, especially with JOLTS indicating the labor market was finally cracking, the latest change in wages was clearly dovish, with wage growth for both job changes and stayers sliding to the lowest since 2021, to wit:
- Job-stayers 6.7%, down from 6.9% in March and lowest since Dec 21
- Job-changers 13.2%, down from 14.2% in March and lowest since Nov 2021
April Employment Report: 253 thousand Jobs, 3.4% Unemployment Rate --From the BLS: Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 253,000 in April, and the unemployment rate changed little at 3.4 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment continued to trend up in professional and business services, health care, leisure and hospitality, and social assistance. ... The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for February was revised down by 78,000, from +326,000 to +248,000, and the change for March was revised down by 71,000, from +236,000 to +165,000. With these revisions, employment in February and March combined is 149,000 lower than previously reported. The first graph shows the jobs added per month since January 2021. Total payrolls increased by 253 thousand in April. Private payrolls increased by 230 thousand, and public payrolls increased 23 thousand. Payrolls for February and January were revised down 149 thousand, combined. The second graph shows the year-over-year change in total non-farm employment since 1968. In April, the year-over-year change was 4.00 million jobs. Employment was up significantly year-over-year. The third graph shows the employment population ratio and the participation rate. The Labor Force Participation Rate was unchanged at 62.6% in April, from 62.6% in March. This is the percentage of the working age population in the labor force. The Employment-Population ratio was unchanged at 60.4% from 60.4% (blue line).. The fourth graph shows the unemployment rate. The unemployment rate decreased in April to 3.4% from 3.5% in March. This was above consensus expectations; however, February and March payrolls were revised down by 149,000 combined.Since the overall participation rate is impacted by both cyclical (recession) and demographic (aging population, younger people staying in school) reasons, here is the employment-population ratio for the key working age group: 25 to 54 years old. The 25 to 54 participation rate was increased in April to 83.3% from 83.1% in March, and the 25 to 54 employment population ratio increased to 80.8% from 80.7% the previous month. Both are slightly above the pre-pandemic levels and suggest all of the prime age workers have returned to the labor force. The graph shows the nominal year-over-year change in "Average Hourly Earnings" for all private employees from the Current Employment Statistics (CES). There was a huge increase at the beginning of the pandemic as lower paid employees were let go, and then the pandemic related spike reversed a year later.
The Landing Has Been Cancelled. Labor Market is Flying at High-ish Cruising Altitude - by Wolf Richter -- We’ve been waiting for the landing now for a year – soft or otherwise. The Fed has jacked up interest rates to over 5%, which a year ago seemed unthinkably high, and everyone has gotten used to it, businesses and consumers. Prices have been rising at a hot pace, though price increases have shifted from gasoline and food and used cars to services, and people and businesses have gotten used to it. Wages have been rising at a similar clip, and everyone has gotten used to that.Some horribly managed banks collapsed and were dumped into the ditch, and everyone knows there will be a few more banks to get dumped into the ditch, and so what, everyone has gotten used to it. A couple of PE-firm-owned auto dealer-lender chains, specialized in selling overpriced used cars at huge interest rates to subprime customers, collapsed. And there were somefiascos in Commercial Real Estate, and they’ll keep coming.All the while, employers are hiring, people are working and making more money, and spending it, and the labor market just keeps cruising along at a good altitude. All it has done so far is that it has come down from the stratosphere.And the soft landing – or any landing – of the labor market that the Fed has been looking for, well, the Fed is just going to have to keep looking for it, because for now the labor market just isn’t landing.In April, 253,000 jobs were created by employers. There are now a record 155.7 million payroll jobs, based on surveys of establishments by the Bureau of Labor Statistics today. Over the past 3 months on average, 222,000 jobs were created per month. This three-month average, which irons out the month-to-month variability, is at the upper end of the range during the Good Times before the pandemic: The drop in tech and social media employment is already over. The lay-off announcements we hear are global, and the ones that get into the news are by huge companies, and they’re still hiring, even while they’re laying off people, and the laid off people are quickly hired by other companies.The Information sector serves as a stand-in for tech and social media companies we hear about. The sector covers only a portion of them; other companies are spread over other sectors. But it gives us an indication.After a hiring binge through November 2022, the number of employees in Information fell off 1.3% over the next three months through February. But even in this hard-hit sector, employment is resilient and rose again in March and April. Now at 3.1 million, employment is where it had been in June and July last year, and remains below the peak, as companies are rebalancing their work force and wringing out the excesses:Total jobs, including gig work. In the broader household survey, which includes other types of jobs such as the self-employed and contract work in addition to payroll-type jobs at establishments, showed that 298,000 jobs were created on average over the past three months through April, which is also at the upper end of the range of the good times. This pushed the total of all kinds of jobs to a record 161.0 million.The number of unemployed people who are actively looking for a job dropped in April to 5.66 million, the lowest in 22 years, according to the Household Survey by the BLS.The three-month average dropped to 5.81 million, in the same low range as in the prior months, and along with February 2020, the lowest in 22 years.This is still a very tight labor market, and most people who are getting laid off and fired for other reasons or no reasons are quickly finding other jobs.
April jobs report: deceleration continues, with sharp downward revisions to previous months’ gains -My focus for this report continued to be whether the leading sectors and other indicators continued to decline, and whether the pace of growth continued to decelerate.While the deceleration in growth did occur - and substantially so - the leading sectors were decidedly mixed, with some - notably the unemployment and underemployment rates - actually improving. Here’s my in depth synopsis:
- 253,000 jobs added. Private sector jobs increased 230,000. Government jobs increased by 23,000.
- BUT, February was revised down by -78,000, and March by -71,000, for a total of -149,000. At +165,000, March is now the lowest reading since December 2020, and the three month moving average of growth declined by over -100,000 from 345,000 before revisions to 222,000, again the lowest since the end of 2020.
- The alternate, and more volatile measure in the household report rose by 139,000 jobs.
- Despite this, the U3 unemployment rate declined -0.1% to 3.4%. This is because the civilian labor force, the denominator in the figure, declined by -43,000
- U6 underemployment rate also declined -0.1% to 6.6%.
- the average manufacturing workweek, one of the 10 components of the Index of Leading Indicators, was unchanged at 40.6, down -1.0 hours from February peak last year of 41.6 hours.
- Manufacturing jobs increased by 11,000.
- Construction jobs increased by 15,000.
- Residential construction jobs, which are even more leading, declilned by 1,800. It appears likely that January was the peak for this sector.
- Temporary jobs, which have generally been declining late last year, declined further, and sharply, by -23,500.
- the number of people unemployed for 5 weeks or less declined -436,000 to 1,866,000.
- Average Hourly Earnings for Production and Nonsupervisory Personnel increased $.11, or +0.5%, to $28.62, a YoY gain of 5.0%, the lowest YoY gain since June of 2021.
- the index of aggregate hours worked for non-managerial workers declined -0.2%.
- the index of aggregate payrolls for non-managerial workers rose 0.3%, but continued its deceleration to 6.7% YoY, the lowest since March 2021, although still 1.7% higher YoY than inflation as of the last reading.
- Leisure and hospitality jobs, which were the most hard-hit during the pandemic, rose 31,000, -402,000, or -2.4% below their pre-pandemic peak.
- Within the leisure and hospitality sector, food and drink establishments added 26,800 jobs, and are now only -87,100, or -0.7% below their pre-pandemic peak.
- Professional and business employment rose 43,000. This series has also been decelerating, and is now up 2.3% YoY.
- The Labor Force Participation Rate was unchanged at 62.6%, vs. 63.4% in February 2020.
- The number of job holders who were part time for economic reasons declined -199,000.
- Those not in the labor force at all, but who want a job now, increased 346,000 to 5.271 million vs. its best level of 4.761 shortly before the pandemic.
SUMMARY: This was a very mixed report. The biggest positives were the increases in manufacturing and construction jobs. Nominal wage growth, while decelerating, continues to be strong. And both the unemployment and underemployment rates tied their multi-decade lows. The negatives included the reasons *why* the unemployment and underemployment rates were so low: the labor force itself declined, while those who weren’t in the labor force but want a job increased. Temporary jobs and residential construction jobs continued to decline, the former sharply. And perhaps most important of all: for the second month in a row, we have had sharp downward revisions to the previous two months’ numbers. This is something that tends to happen as a recession is about to start, or has already started. The theme remains deceleration, but no downturn yet.
Comments on April Employment Report -The headline jobs number in the April employment report was above expectations, however employment for the previous two months was revised down by 149,000, combined. The participation rate and employment population ratio were unchanged, and the unemployment rate decreased to 3.4%. This is the lowest unemployment rate since 1969 (over 50 years ago), and the unemployment rate hasn't been lower since 1953! (70 years ago).Leisure and hospitality gained 31 thousand jobs in March. At the beginning of the pandemic, in March and April of 2020, leisure and hospitality lost 8.2 million jobs, and are now down 402 thousand jobs since February 2020. So, leisure and hospitality has now added back about 95% all of the jobs lost in March and April 2020. Construction employment increased 15 thousand and is now 295 thousand above the pre-pandemic level. Manufacturing employment increased 11 thousand jobs and is now 206 thousand above the pre-pandemic level. Earlier: April Employment Report: 253 thousand Jobs, 3.4% Unemployment Rate In April, the year-over-year employment change was 4.00 million jobs.Since the overall participation rate is impacted by both cyclical (recession) and demographic (aging population, younger people staying in school) reasons, here is the employment-population ratio for the key working age group: 25 to 54 years old. The 25 to 54 participation rate was increased in April to 83.3% from 83.1% in March, and the 25 to 54 employment population ratio increased to 80.8% from 80.7% the previous month. Both are slightly above the pre-pandemic levels and suggest all of the prime age workers have returned to the labor force. Average Hourly Wages The graph shows the nominal year-over-year change in "Average Hourly Earnings" for all private employees from the Current Employment Statistics (CES). There was a huge increase at the beginning of the pandemic as lower paid employees were let go, and then the pandemic related spike reversed a year later. Wage growth has trended down after peaking at 5.9% YoY in March 2022 and was at 4.4% YoY in April. Year-over-year wage growth will likely slow further over the next few months. From the BLS report: "The number of persons employed part time for economic reasons, at 3.9 million, was little changed in April. These individuals, who would have preferred full-time employment, were working part time because their hours had been reduced or they were unable to find full-time jobs." The number of persons working part time for economic reasons decreased in April to 3.903 million from 4.102 million in March. This is below pre-recession levels. These workers are included in the alternate measure of labor underutilization (U-6) that decreased to 6.6% from 6.7% in the previous month. This is down from the record high in April 22.9% and up slightly from the lowest level on record (seasonally adjusted) in December 2022 (6.5%). (This series started in 1994). This measure is below the level in February 2020 (pre-pandemic). This graph shows the number of workers unemployed for 27 weeks or more. According to the BLS, there are 1.156 million workers who have been unemployed for more than 26 weeks and still want a job, up from 1.104 million the previous month. This is at pre-pandemic levels. Summary: The headline monthly jobs number was above expectations; however, employment for the previous two months was revised down by 149,000, combined. The headline unemployment rate decreased to 3.4% - the lowest in over 50 years! Overall this was another solid employment report, however, including the substantial downward revisions, this employment report was weaker than expected.
American Airlines pilots vote to authorize strike (Reuters) - A union representing American Airlines Group Inc pilots said on Monday its members had approved a strike mandate ahead of the busy summer travel season, although the chances of an actual labor disruption remain slim. The Allied Pilots Association (APA), which represents 15,000 American Airlines pilots, held a strike authorization vote in April to put pressure on the Texas-based carrier for higher salary and better working conditions, even as the two sides closed in on an agreement in principle. More than 96% of the APA membership participated in the vote and over 99% voted in favor of authorizing a strike, the union said in a statement. "We remain confident that an agreement for our pilots is within reach and can be finalized quickly. The finish line is in sight," American Airlines said in a statement. The airline's pilots received their last pay increase in 2019. Despite the vote, it would be hard for pilots to walk off their jobs because of a complex labor process in the United States that makes it difficult for airline workers to strike. In March, Delta Air Lines pilots ratified a new contract that includes $7 billion in cumulative increases in pay and benefits over four years. American's chief executive has said the carrier is prepared to match the pay rates and profit-sharing formula that rival Delta provided in its new contract. Some airline executives are concerned that hefty pilot pay raises will inflate fixed costs and make it tougher to repair debt-laden balance sheets. APA on Monday said its members will conduct informational picketing from 11 a.m. to 1 p.m. local time at all ten of the airline's major hubs including Boston (BOS) and Los Angeles (LAX).
Late-night TV shows go dark as writers strike for better pay | AP News (AP) — The first Hollywood strike in 15 years began Tuesday as the economic pressures of the streaming era prompted unionized TV and film writers to picket for better pay outside major studios, a work stoppage that already is leading most late-night shows to air reruns. “No contracts, no content!” sign-carrying members of the Writers Guild of America chanted outside the Manhattan building where NBCUniversal was touting its Peacock streaming service to advertisers. Some 11,500 film and television writers represented by the union put down their pens and laptops after failing to reach a new contract with the trade association that represents Hollywood studios and production companies. The union is seeking higher minimum pay, more writers per show and shorter exclusive contracts, among other demands — all conditions it says have been diminished in the content boom driven by streaming. “There’s too much work and not enough pay,” said demonstrator Sean Crespo, a 46-year-old writer whose credits include the former TBS show “Full Frontal With Samantha Bee.” The labor dispute could have a cascading effect on TV and film productions depending on how long the strike lasts, and it comes as streaming services are under growing pressure from Wall Street to show profits. Late-night television was the first to feel the fallout, just as it was during the 2007 writers strike that last for 100 days. All of the top late-night shows, which are staffed by writers that pen monologues and jokes for their hosts, immediately went dark. NBC’s “The Tonight Show,” Comedy Central’s “Daily Show,” ABC’s Jimmy Kimmel Live,” CBS’s “The Late Show” and NBC’s “Late Night” all made plans for reruns through the week. NBC’s “Saturday Night Live,” which had been scheduled to air a new episode Saturday, will also go dark and air reruns instead. “Everyone including myself hope both sides reach a deal. But I also think that the writers’ demands are not unreasonable,” host Stephen Colbert said on Monday's “Late Show.”
Hollywood screenwriters on strike after contract negotiations fail - Hollywood writers are closing their laptops and heading to the picket line. Thousands of unionized scribes who say they are not paid fairly in the streaming era went on strike early Tuesday, bringing television production to a halt. It comes after high-stakes negotiations between a top guild and a trade association representing Hollywood’s marquee studios failed to avert the first walkout in more than 15 years. The board of directors for the Writers Guild of America, which includes West Coast and East Coast branches, voted unanimously to call for a walkout and said writers face an “existential crisis.” “The companies’ behavior has created a gig economy inside a union work force, and their immovable stance in this negotiation has betrayed a commitment to further devaluing the profession of writing,” the union said in a statement. The Alliance of Motion Picture and Television Producers — a trade association that bargains on behalf of studios, television networks and streaming platforms — said in a statement that its offer included “generous increases in compensation for writers.” The main “sticking points,” according to the entertainment giants, include union proposals that would require companies to staff television shows with a certain number of writers for a specific period of time, “whether needed or not.” The strike brings production on broadcast programs, streaming shows and potentially some films to a virtual standstill, upending the entertainment industry. In some cases, the impact will be clear immediately. Late-night talk shows are going dark this week, for example. In other cases, the producers of scripted drama and comedy series may be forced to cut their seasons short or delay filming altogether.
IBM To Stop Hiring For Roles That Can Be Replaced By AI; Nearly 8,000 Workers To Be Replaced By Automation --One month ago, to much dismay and widespread denial, Goldman predicted that AI could lead to some 300 million layoffs among highly paid, non-menial workers in the US and Europe. As Goldman chief economist Jan Hatzius put it, "using data on occupational tasks in both the US and Europe, we find that roughly two-thirds of current jobs are exposed to some degree of AI automation, and that generative AI could substitute up to one-fourth of current work. Extrapolating our estimates globally suggests that generative AI could expose the equivalent of 300 million full-time jobs to automation" as up to "two thirds of occupations could be partially automated by AI." Yet while Goldman's forecast was met with a emotions ranging from incredulity to outright mockery, it may not have been too far off the mark.Consider that just last week, Dropbox said it would lay off 16% of the company, some 500 employees as the company sought to build out its AI division. In a memo to employees, Dropbox CEO Drew Houston said that “in an ideal world, we’d simply shift people from one team to another. And we’ve done that wherever possible. However, our next stage of growth requires a different mix of skill sets, particularly in AI and early-stage product development. We’ve been bringing in great talent in these areas over the last couple years and we’ll need even more.”The changes we’re announcing today, while painful, are necessary for our future,” Houston notes. “I’m determined to ensure that Dropbox is at the forefront of the AI era, just as we were at the forefront of the shift to mobile and the cloud. We’ll need all hands on deck as machine intelligence gives us the tools to reimagine our existing businesses and invent new ones.”But while Dropbox's layoffs were lateral, and meant to open up space for more AI linked hires, in the case of IBM, it is AI itself that is making workers redundant.As Bloomberg reports, IBM CEO Arvind Krishna said the company expects to pause hiring for roles it thinks could be replaced with artificial intelligence in the coming years. As a result, hiring in back-office functions — such as human resources — will be suspended or slowed, Krishna said in an interview. These non-customer-facing roles amount to roughly 26,000 workers, Krishna said. “I could easily see 30% of that getting replaced by AI and automation over a five-year period.” That would mean roughly 7,800 jobs lost.Part of any reduction would include not replacing roles vacated by attrition, an IBM spokesperson said.
One-third of US nurses plan to quit profession - report (Reuters) - Almost a third of the nurses in the United States are considering leaving their profession after the COVID-19 pandemic left them overwhelmed and fatigued, according to a survey. The survey of over 18,000 nurses, conducted by AMN Healthcare Services Inc in January, showed on Monday that 30% of the participants are looking to quit their career, up 7 percentage points over 2021, when the pandemic-triggered wave of resignations began. The survey also showed that 36% of the nurses plan to continue working in the sector but may change workplaces. "This really underscores the continued mental health and well-being challenges the nursing workforce experiences post pandemic," AMN Healthcare CEO Cary Grace told Reuters in an interview. The survey showed there are various changes needed, with 69% of nurses seeking increased salaries and 63% of them seeking a safer working environment to reduce their stress. This comes at a time hospital operator and sector bellwether HCA Healthcare Inc indicated a recovery in staffing situation. While a shortage of staff in hospitals has been an issue for a couple of years, it gained traction globally in late 2021 and hit a peak early last year following a large number of resignations due to burn out. The staffing crisis drove up costs at hospital operators, while boosted profits at medical staffing providers such as AMN Healthcare.
California, New York, Illinois Biggest Losers Amid Exodus To Low-Tax States- IRS - The latest tax migration data from the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) shows that the exodus of taxpayers from high-tax states continued from 2020 to 2021, with California, New York, and Illinois again suffering some of the nation’s biggest losses of people and money. California’s tax base shrank by nearly $29.1 billion as the Golden State saw a net loss of 332,000 taxpayers and their dependents during a time of widespread lockdowns, stay-at-home orders, and business closures, according to the IRS migration data released Thursday. In second place was New York, which was hit by a net loss of $24.5 billion and 262,000 people. Illinois was third, with a net loss of $10.9 billion and 105,000 people. Other high-tax states such as Massachusetts ($2.6 billion) and New Jersey ($2.3 billion) also saw tens of thousands of people moving out during the period. On the winning side, Florida reaped the benefits of the wealth migration more than any other state, enjoying a net gain of $39.1 billion in gross income from 256,000 new residents. Texas, which gained $10.9 billion and 175,000 people, came in second. They were followed by Nevada ($4.6 billion), North Carolina ($4.5 billion), Arizona ($4.4 billion), South Carolina ($4.2 billion), and Tennessee ($4.1 billion). The data was compiled by comparing the mailing addresses on one year’s income tax return and that of the next. The most recent migration data reflects address changes that occurred between when taxpayers filed their tax year 2019 returns in calendar year 2020 and when they filed their tax year 2020 returns in calendar year 2021. Even before the COVID-19 pandemic, California had already seen a net outflow of people and money to other states. According to previous IRS data, California lost $8 billion in income in 2018 and $8.8 billion in 2019. California still takes in more tax revenue than any other state due to its tax structure, which places higher rates on wealthy residents. Gov. Gavin Newsom announced last May that his state had a historic $97.5 billion budget surplus.
“We’ve Never Seen Such A Dramatic Shift”: Bud Light Hopes New Ad Blitz Can Overcome Corporate Suicide - Bud Light parent company Anheuser-Busch is desperately scrambling to rehabilitate their image following corporate suicide over a transgender ad campaign featuring TikTok influencer Dylan Mulvaney.In order to make amends with distributors after off-site sales fell 26.1% in the week ending April 22 vs. one year ago, the company has pledged to boost marketing spending on Bud Light and accelerate production of a new slate of ads, according to the Wall Street Journal, which adds that Anheuser-Busch will give a 'case of Bud Light to every employee' of a wholesaler. Meanwhile, sales of rival brands Coors Light and Miller Light each grew 21% during the same period ending April 22.The efforts are continuing a month after Dylan Mulvaney, a transgender social-media star, spoke in an Instagram video about a personalized can of Bud Light that the brewer had sent her as a gift. The April 1 post sparked a boycott that caused sales to plummet for both Anheuser-Busch and its independently owned distributors. The distributors’ employees, many of whom drive trucks bearing the Bud Light logo, were confronted by angry people on streets, in stores and in bars. -WSJThe deterioration of Bud Light's market share "continued apace through the third week of April — and actually somehow worsened. We’ve never seen such a dramatic shift in national share in such a short period of time," according to Beer Business Daily.The fallout has spread to other Anheuser-Busch brands as well, including Budweiser, Busch Light, and Michelob Ultra, according to Bump Williams."It sent shock waves through distributors," according to Jeff Wheeler, vice president of marketing for Del Papa Distributing near Houston, Texas, adding that his staff has fielded "tons of phone calls from people being very hateful."Two Bud Light marketing executives have been placed on administrative leave in the wake of the controversy. Marketing Vice President Alissa Heinerscheid took a leave of absence after the Daily Caller reported on photos of her at a college party following comments she made slamming Bud Light’s customer for being “fratty.” Budweiser reportedly announced Sunday that Daniel Blake, group vice president for marketing at Anheuser-Busch, was also taking a leave of absence. -Daily Caller After three weeks of social media silence, Mulvaney posted a TikTok video mansplaining that he wishes he could be reincarnated as someone "non-confrontational and uncontroversial."
Man dies on NYC subway after being placed in chokehold by fellow passenger -- A man who was acting “erratically” on a New York City subway is dead after another passenger put him in a chokehold, police and witnesses say.The New York City medical examiner determined that Jordan Neely, 30, died from compression of the neck, theAssociated Press reported. According to the Daily News, the incident began around 2:30 p.m. on Monday when a man identified as Neely, who “used to busk in the subway as a Michael Jackson impersonator,” was on an uptown F train when he began yelling and screaming, passengers told police.Neely “yelled and threw garbage at commuters,” prompting another man, identified as a 24-year-old Marine veteran, to intervene.“I don’t have food, I don’t have to drink, I’m fed up,” Neely screamed, according to Juan Alberto Vázquez, a freelance journalist and fellow passenger. “I don’t mind going to jail and getting life in prison. I’m ready to die.” Video footage of the encounter taken by Vázquez and posted to Facebook shows Neely, who was Black, flailing his arms as he is restrained in a chokehold by the veteran, who is white. Two other men are seen standing over Neely in the three-minute video, pushing his arms away as he remains in the chokehold.The three men then let go of Neely, who is seen lying motionless on the floor of the train.According to Vázquez, Neely was in the chokehold for nearly 15 minutes before he lost consciousness."I witnessed a murder on the Manhattan subway today," Vázquez wrote on Facebook.When police arrived, Neely was unresponsive and first responders were unable to revive him. He was then taken to a local hospital, where he was pronounced dead.The 24-year-old was taken in for questioning and released.
Sex offender fatally shot 6, then killed self, official says - An Oklahoma sex offender who was released from prison early shot his wife, her three children and their two friends in the head and then killed himself, authorities confirmed Wednesday as concerns grew about why he was free as his trial on new sex charges loomed.Okmulgee Police Chief Joe Prentice said that the victims had each been shot in the head one to three times with a 9 mm pistol when they were found Monday near a creek and in a heavily wooded area in rural Oklahoma.The bodies apparently had been moved there from where they were originally killed, the scene “staged” before Jesse McFadden, a 39-year-old convicted sex offender, killed himself, Prentice said in the first major update on the case.The discovery of the bodies near McFadden's home in Henryetta, a town of about 6,000 about 90 miles (145 kilometers) east of Oklahoma City, came on the very day that he was to stand trial on charges that he solicited nude images from another teen while he was imprisoned for rape.Authorities have declined to release a motive for the shootings, but McFadden had vowed not to return to prison in a series of ominous messages with his young victim. Authorities began a search after 14-year-old Ivy Webster and 16-year-old Brittany Brewer, who were visiting the family over the weekend, were reported missing. Concerns grew when McFadden failed to appear at his long-delayed jury trial. McFadden had been sentenced to 20 years in 2003 for first-degree rape in the sexual assault of a 17-year-old and was freed three years early, in part for good behavior, despite facing new charges that he used a contraband cell phone in 2016 to trade nude photos with the woman, then 16. He was released in 2020 after serving 16 years and nine months, even though the new charges could send him back to prison for many years if convicted.“And they rushed him out of prison. How?" asked Janette Mayo, whose daughter, Holly Guess, 35, and her grandchildren, Rylee Elizabeth Allen, 17; Michael James Mayo, 15; and Tiffany Dore Guess, 13, were among those killed.“Oklahoma failed to protect families. And because of that my children -- my daughter and my grandchildren -- are all gone,” Mayo said. "I’ve lost my daughter and my grandchildren and I’m never going to get to see ’em, never going to get to hold them, and it’s killing me.”
DeSantis board approves suing Disney in latest tug-of-war (AP) — Days after Disney sued Florida’s governor in federal court for what it described as retaliation for opposing the state’s so-called “Don’t Say Gay” bill, members of Disney World’s governing board — made up of Gov. Ron DeSantis appointees — authorized a lawsuit Monday against the entertainment giant. Members of the Central Florida Tourism Oversight District voted unanimously to sue Disney in state court in the Orlando area, as well as defend itself in federal court in Tallahassee where the entertainment company filed its lawsuit last Wednesday. The Disney lawsuit against the governor, the board and its five members asks a judge to void the governor’s takeover of the theme park district previously controlled by Disney for 55 years. The oversight board’s lawsuit seeks to maintain its oversight of design and construction in the district that governs Disney World’s 25,000 acres after the previous Disney-controlled board signed over those powers to the company before the DeSantis-appointed board members held their first meeting earlier this year. “We will seek justice in our own backyard,” said Martin Garcia, chair of the Central Florida Tourism Oversight District.
DeSantis signs bill allowing Florida board to cancel Disney deals - (Reuters) - Florida Governor Ron DeSantis on Friday signed a bill into law that gives a new board he controls the power to void development agreements its predecessor body signed with Disney - the latest episode in a feud between the conservative governor and the entertainment giant. Under the bill, which passed the Republican-controlled legislature largely along party lines, the Central Tourism Oversight District Board - whose members are appointed by DeSantis - can cancel any deals signed up to three months before the board's creation. "Make no mistake about it, the reason why the legislature had to act was not because of anything we did," DeSantis said at a news conference Friday. "It was basically born out of Disney’s arrogance that they would be able to subcontract around the duly enacted laws of the state of Florida. That's wrong." Walt Disney Co (DIS.N) declined to comment. The legislature formed the board in February to replace the Disney-controlled Reedy Creek Improvement District to oversee development in the 25,000 acres (10,120 hectares) surrounding Walt Disney World, effectively wresting control from the company and handing it to DeSantis. Disney, the largest employer in central Florida, and the Republican governor have been battling since last year, when Disney criticized a new state law banning classroom instruction of sexuality and gender identity with younger children. DeSantis, who is expected to declare his candidacy for U.S. president in coming weeks, has repeatedly attacked "woke Disney" in public remarks, characterizing it as liberal.
The first arrests from DeSantis’s election police take extensive toll - The Washington Post — The fallout came fast when Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis’s new election police unit charged Peter Washington with voter fraud last summer as part of a crackdown against felons who’d allegedly broken the law by casting a ballot. The Orlando resident lost his job supervising irrigation projects, and along with it, his family’s health insurance. His wife dropped her virtual classes at Florida International University to help pay their rent. Future plans went out the window. “It knocked me to my knees, if you want to know the truth,” he said. But not long after, the case against Washington began falling apart. A judge from Florida’s Ninth Judicial Circuit ruled the statewide prosecutor who filed the charges didn’t have jurisdiction to do so. Washington’s attorney noted that he had received an official voter identification card in the mail after registering. The case was dismissed in February. One by one, many of the initial 20 arrests announced by the Office of Election Crimes and Security have stumbled in court. Six cases have been dismissed. Five other defendants accepted plea deals that resulted in no jail time. Only one case has gone to trial, resulting in a split verdict. The others are pending. In its first nine months, the new unit made just four other arrests, according to a report the agency released earlier this year. Critics say the low numbers point to the overall strength of Florida’s electoral system and a lack of sufficient evidence to pursue further charges. Nonetheless, as he gears up for a possible presidential run, DeSantis is moving to give the office more teeth, asking the legislature to nearly triple the division’s annual budget from $1.2 million to $3.1 million. The Republican governor also pushed through a bill ensuring the statewide prosecutor has jurisdiction over election crime cases — an attempt to resolve an issue several judges have raised in dismissing cases. Voting rights advocates and defense attorneys say the expansion of the statewide prosecutor’s role to include elections enforcement is alarming. The office was created in 1986, and its portfolio typically includes offenses like extortion, racketeering and computer pornography involving two or more judicial circuits. The statewide prosecutor is appointed by the attorney general, Ashley Moody, a political ally of DeSantis, and also submits an annual report to the governor. Advertisement Defense attorneys say DeSantis is using the statewide prosecutor’s office to circumvent the role of local prosecutors, who have declined to pursue such cases.
North Carolina lawmakers pass 12-week abortion ban; governor vows veto (AP) — North Carolina lawmakers on Thursday approved and sent to the governor a ban on nearly all abortions after 12 weeks of pregnancy, down from the current 20 weeks, in response to last year’s overturning of Roe v. Wade at the U.S. Supreme Court. The ban is one of the least onerous of a slew of bills Republican-led assemblies have pushed through in recent months since the high court stripped away constitutional protections for abortion. Other states have banned the procedure almost completely or throughout pregnancy. Nonetheless, the 29-20 party-line vote by the Senate was met with loud cries of “Abortion rights now!” from about 100 observers who had crowded into the gallery to watch the debate. Police quickly cleared the area, but protesters could still be heard shouting “Shame!” from outside the closed doors. The House passed the measure Wednesday night on a similar party-line vote.
Kansas Becomes 1st State To Pass Law Defining Gender As A Person’s Sex At Birth - Kansas has become the first state to adopt a definition of gender with the passage of legislation that keeps men, no matter what gender they identify as, out of women’s bathrooms, locker rooms, and other intimate spaces. It also separates inmates and restricts participation in sports according to one’s sex at birth. The move came late in the afternoon of April 27, when the state Legislature voted to override Kansas Gov. Laura Kelly’s veto of S.B. 180, which became known as the “Women’s Bill of Rights.” Under it, a female is defined as “an individual whose biological reproductive system is developed to produce ova.” A male is defined as “an individual whose biological reproductive system is developed to fertilize the ova of a female.” It also defines gender words calling for “woman” and “girl” to be used to refer to human females and “man” and “boy” to refer to human males. It defines “mother” as a parent of the female sex and “father” as a parent of the male sex. The override comes a little more than a week after Kelly vetoed the bill on April 20, after it was passed by a two-to-one margin between Republicans and Democrats in both the House and Senate. Kelly said she vetoed the legislation because she was concerned it would open the state up to costly discrimination lawsuits, cause a loss of federal funding, and hurt the Sunflower State’s economy.
FTC Says "Facebook Repeatedly Violated Its Privacy Promises," Puts "Young Users At Risk" -Meta, the parent company of the Facebook platform, has failed to comply with the Federal Trade Commission's 2020 privacy order that bars the social media company from profiting off data it collects from young users. Shares of Meta slid as much as 2% on the news. "Facebook has repeatedly violated its privacy promises," said Samuel Levine, Director of the FTC's Bureau of Consumer Protection. He said Meta's "recklessness has put young users at risk, and Facebook needs to answer for its failures."As part of the proposed changes, Meta, which changed its name from Facebook in 2021, would be prohibited from profiting from data it collects, including through its virtual reality products, from users under the age of 18. It would also be subject to other expanded limitations, including in its use of facial recognition technology, and required to provide additional protections for users.Wednesday's action by the FTC signifies an unwelcome reemergence of controversy for Meta and its platforms, Facebook and Instagram. Following previous FTC investigations into its privacy practices, the company paid a $5 billion civil penalty in 2019. This marks the third time the FTC has pursued action against Meta for allegedly failing to protect users' privacy. The agency explains the timeline of events:The Commission first filed a complaint against Facebook in 2011, and secured an order in 2012 barring the company from misrepresenting its privacy practices. But according to a subsequent complaint filed by the Commission, Facebook violated the first FTC order within months of it being finalized – engaging in misrepresentations that helped fuel the Cambridge Analytica scandal. In 2019, Facebook agreed to a second order—which took effect in 2020—resolving claims that it violated the FTC's first order. Today's action alleges that Facebook has violated the 2020 order, as well as the Children's Online Privacy Protection Act Rule (COPPA Rule). Shares of Meta slid 2% on the news but have rebounded since...
Montana governor signs bill banning transgender medical care for youths (Reuters) - Montana's governor on Friday enacted a Republican-backed ban on gender-affirming medical care for transgender children, days after a transgender lawmaker protesting the bill was barred from the floor of the state legislature, sparking a national furor. The Republican House majority voted to censure Zooey Zephyr, a Democrat, on Wednesday, excluding her from the House chamber for the rest of the legislative session for saying on April 18 that lawmakers backing the bill would have blood on their hands.The legislation, Senate Bill 99, passed the House of Representatives three days later, and Republican Governor Greg Gianforte signed it into law on Friday.Republican politicians have pressed a campaign to restrict special medical treatments prescribed for transgender youth, including hormone treatments and puberty blockers, with dozens of similar bills introduced in legislatures across the U.S.Opponents of transgender healthcare interventions say their long-term effects are not fully understood and that children and teenagers are too young to make such life-altering choices, even with parental supervision.Zephyr, a first-term representative from Missoula, declared that denying gender-affirming care to youngsters who feel at odds with their birth sex was "tantamount to torture" and that a ban would lead to more suicides.Republican House leaders initially reacted to Zephyr's floor statements by turning off her microphone. The level of acrimony escalated on Monday of this week when Zephyr led a protest by her supporters chanting "Let her speak!" from the visitors gallery, ending in the arrest of seven demonstrators.The party-line 68-32 vote to formally exclude Zephyr from the House floor, gallery and anteroom on Wednesday prompted LGBTQ activists to call on supporters to join in a 24-hour protest event in Missoula for Friday and Saturday.
Montana legislator sues House speaker over censure - Montana Rep. Zooey Zephyr, a Democrat censured last week by Republicans in the state House, is suing her state and its House speaker over her punishment. Zephyr, along with three of her constituents who are also a part of the suit, argues that the legislature took retaliatory and unlawful action against her for engaging in speech protected under federal law. Montana House Republicans last week voted to censure Zephyr, barring her from the House floor, anteroom and gallery for the remaining nine days of Montana’s legislative session. She has the option to participate remotely, but only by voting.The lawsuit filed Monday in state court argues that House Republicans, including Speaker Matt Reiger, in voting to prevent Zephyr from participating in legislative debate not only violated her rights under the First Amendment of the U.S. Constitution, but also disenfranchised the 11,000 Montanans Zephyr was elected to represent. “Voters elect their Representatives to do more than simply vote on bills,” Monday’s lawsuit states. ”Representatives also are elected to use of the floor of the House to pursue their constituents’ interests and views—using the platform provided by the People’s House to educate and persuade their colleagues and the public through speech, debate, and lobbying. “Defendants’ lawless silencing and Censure of Representative Zooey Zephyr extinguishes a vital part of the job her constituents elected her to do,” the lawsuit adds. Zephyr, one of the state’s first openly transgender lawmakers, has faced calls for her censure since late last month, when she said lawmakers who voted to pass a bill to ban gender-affirming health care for transgender youths would have “blood on your hands.” “If you are forcing a trans child to go through puberty when they are trans, that is tantamount to torture. This body should be ashamed,” Zephyr said last month on the House floor. The bill, Senate Bill 99, was signed into law late last week by Republican Gov. Greg Gianforte, just three days after Zephyr was censured.
Chelsea Clinton Comes Out In Favor Of Porn For School Kids - Bill and Hillary Clinton’s daughter Chelsea Clinton appears to have taken on a new activism project, defending attempts to force kids as young as Kindergarten age to be exposed to sexually explicit “LGBTQ+” material at school. Clinton tweeted the following post, claiming that Republicans are trying to “ban” books and that it is harmful to children to remove material with LGBTQ+ “themes”. Over 50% of the attempted book bans last year involved books with LGBTQ+ characters & themes. Books are a vital way that children, adolescents and adults learn about themselves and our world. Bans such as these are nothing but harmful: https://t.co/eblRSU7tZk — Chelsea Clinton (@ChelseaClinton) April 27, 2023 As we have exhaustively covered, the truth is that no one is calling for the books to be banned, but many are calling for the books that contain pornographic images and even pedophilia themes, as well as unscientific statements about biological gender, to be removed from school libraries. This material is not age appropriate for children.
From bad to worse: Student misbehavior rises further since return of in-person classes - Student behavioral problems that spiked with the return of in-person learning after the coronavirus pandemic are getting even worse, educators say. Seventy percent of teachers, principals and district leaders said in a recent EdWeek Research Center survey that students are misbehaving more now than in 2019, up from 66 percent in December 2021. One-third in the new poll said students are misbehaving “a lot more.” Experts say the culture shock and whiplash from the extended period of remote classes are only one of the psychological and academic factors behind the problem. More than 200,000 students have lost a parent to COVID-19, and several states reported an increase in youth suicide during the pandemic. Scholastically, the Nation’s Report Card 2022 found students had lost decades of learning. “I think one of the things that we really talk to school leaders about is, you know, really understanding that you cannot push your way through. If a student is not emotionally available to learn, you’re never going to make the academic gains that you want,” said Tali Raviv, associate director of the Center for Childhood Resilience at Ann & Robert H. Lurie Children’s Hospital of Chicago. Crystal Thorpe, the principal of Fishers Junior High School in Fishers, Ind., said it was the worst year for student behavior she had seen in her school, with more fights and aggressive behavior than ever. In response, Fishers Junior High implemented measures such as making teachers more present in the hallways, having an app that allowed students to anonymously report concerning behavior and talking to students as soon as a problem arose and not waiting for violence to break out.
Prom crowning sparks divide at Ohio high school (WDTN) – Kettering Fairmont High School in Kettering, Ohio, made history by crowning two LGBTQ+ students, seniors Dai’sean Conley and Rosie Green, as prom king and queen. Now, the board of education is hearing from residents in the community who want to prevent something similar from happening again. Conley and Green were chosen for the honor by their peers at school. Most are supportive, but some, Conley said, were unhappy with the outcome of the vote. “Even when I was given the crown and I put on my head, there’s a lot of boos in the crowd,” Conley said. “I didn’t hear them. I only heard the congratulating, which I was very thankful for.” Despite support from peers, Conley and non-binary senior Rosie Green received negative feedback online. It was hurtful to Conley, and it took her time to heal. “It’s very demeaning,” Conley said. “It takes a lot for an individual to be able to bring themself back to who they are and believing in themselves and being fully confident and not letting things like that pull them out of who they are as a person.” Prior to a meeting of the local board of education, friends and allies rallied in support of the students. “Absolutely every kid should have the opportunity to be prom king, prom queen, anything they want to be. So I support the school and the students voting for who they want to be prom queen and king,” Jazzmine Brown, a 2014 graduate of Kettering Fairmont High School, said. “I love that the community is here backing up these kids. Some kids are here as well, speaking out for what they believe in and supporting their friends and their family here.”
New York City teachers union prepares contract betrayal - The United Federation of Teachers (UFT), the organization that negotiates wages, benefits and working conditions with New York City for educators in the largest American school district, is presently putting the final touches on what most of its members understand will be a sellout that will include a real wage cut after inflation. Educators have been working without a contract since September. Inflation has risen 6.45 percent in the last year, more for some types of food staples, and housing costs in the city and the surrounding area are at all-time highs. The UFT is preparing to accept a pattern agreement based on the sellout imposed on city workers last month. The deal will accommodate sweeping cuts made to the city’s Department of Education (DOE) by the right-wing mayor, Democrat Eric Adams, to the 2024 budget. Adams has called for a cut of $652 million from city funding to the DOE. Another $297 million will be cut as federal pandemic aid comes to an end. The city has budgeted only enough funds for derisory 1 percent raises over four years for city workers. Anything above that, according to Adams’ advisers, will have to be cut from other city services. New York’s city worker unions have embraced “pattern bargaining” over the years for the roughly 300,000 city workers. Generally, the first large union to sign a contract with the city determines a pattern for the others. In February, the American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees (AFSCME) District Council 37 (DC37), which negotiates for tens of thousands of city administrative, parks, office, health care and other workers, accepted an agreement with the city that stipulates a below-inflation 3 percent annual raise. The contract was ratified early last month. The UFT has kept a cordon of secrecy around the contract negotiations, requiring all members of its negotiation committee to sign non-disclosure agreements. There is, nevertheless, every indication that the UFT bureaucrats will refuse to contest a de facto wage cut.
Opposition from Rutgers academic workers grows against AFT-backed contract proposals - Late Sunday, the leaders of three unions at Rutgers University in New Jersey voted to accept and recommend ratification of tentative agreements (TAs) that they negotiated behind closed doors with the university administration. This follows the unpopular suspension of the strike two weeks ago by the American Federation of Teachers (AFT)-affiliated academic unions. The resulting TAs will be voted on by workers later this week. By giving workers only a few days to review the contents of the four-year contract, the union bureaucracy is attempting to stampede workers into ratifying a deal that does not come close to what they fought for in the state university’s first-ever strike. Workers should reject such measures with contempt and vote “no” on the contracts! The details that have become public testify to the rotten character of these agreements. Full-time faculty will receive raises ranging from only 3.25 percent to 3.75 percent during the four years of the contract, which retroactively begins September 2022. All these raises are far below the rate of inflation, which was 8.2 percent in September and is currently around five percent. This means that real wages for full-time faculty will be cut. Moreover, the raise proposed in the third year is to be paid as a “merit” increase, which means not all workers will qualify. In addition, graduate student workers will see their annual salary rise from $34,678 in the first year of the contract to only $40,000 in the fourth year. But even the latter salary “is short of a living wage,” as Maria Garth, a graduate student worker and member of the bargaining committee, admitted during an online meeting after the unions had agreed to the framework language. The details related to health insurance have not been finalized. They will be worked out in future bargaining that includes other Rutgers unions. This arrangement, which is an insult to all Rutgers workers, is particularly harmful for part-time lecturers. The latter constitute an especially exploited section of academic workers and often do not have adequate health benefits.
New College scores millions in Florida’s budget amid DeSantis revamp - — Florida GOP lawmakers this week supported the drastic changes Gov. Ron DeSantis is seeking to transform New College of Florida into a conservative-leaning school by agreeing to send more than $34 million to the school and backing a slate of controversial trustees who are now leading it. The money is meant to provide scholarships for enticing potential students, help with building repairs and bolster school operations. The DeSantis-picked trustees, meanwhile, were confirmed by Republican state senators to run the school and have already made a noticeable impact on the Sarasota campus to the dismay of students, faculty and Democrats. “We are investing in New College,” state Rep. Jason Shoaf (R-Port St. Joe), the House’s higher education budget chief, said on the floor Thursday. “With the new board, and the new direction, we want to … [invest] in their success so we have another great institution on our list.” Florida’s annual legislative session proved to be a successful one for New College under the guidance of DeSantis, who in January appointed six new trustees to reshape the school as a “Hillsdale of the South” — a reference to the conservative Christian liberal arts college in Michigan. The moves contributed to the DeSantis administration’s fight against “wokeness” and “indoctrination” in the state’s higher education system, the subject of several high-profile reforms proposed during session. To help carry out that mission at New College, GOP leaders in the Legislature are poised to send a historic level of cash there — even going above and beyond what DeSantis wanted. All told, the school landed more than $34 million in the state budget lawmakers are on the cusp of finalizing this week. The pot includes a specific $25 million carve-out, $10 million more than DeSantis requested, of which $5 million must be put aside for student scholarships. This comes in addition to a $15 million special budget allocation lawmakers approved earlier this year that New College is already using to offer $10,000 scholarships for prospective students. New College also scored a further $9.3 million in a different funding pocket for remodeling two buildings. Lawmakers are confident the cash infusion will help turn around a state university that has historically struggled with enrollment and lagged behind other schools in meeting the state’s performance standards. Three years ago, House lawmakers considered merging New College into Florida State University in part because of the cost of producing graduates at the school was higher compared to others.
Former California college student arrested in 3 stabbings (AP) — A 21-year-old who was a student at the University of California, Davis, until last week was arrested on accusations of fatally stabbing two people and wounding another in attacks that terrified the quiet college community, police said Thursday. Carlos Dominguez was taken into custody Wednesday after 15 people called in reports of a person who matched the description of the suspect near a city park where he is accused of stabbing the second victim to death, said Davis Police Chief Darren Pytel. Pytel did not disclose a motive for the stabbings, which took place over a span of days starting with the discovery of the first body April 27, and said it was unclear if Dominguez knew the victims. Those killed were a 50-year-old homeless man well loved in the community and a 20-year-old UC Davis student. A homeless woman attacked in her tent Monday night is recovering. “He was out wandering a neighborhood where the second homicide had occurred. He had a large knife in a backpack, wearing the same clothes from the third stabbing,” Pytel told a news conference, explaining the circumstances of Dominguez’s arrest. “That’s highly unusual and unique.” The multiple stabbings over the course of less than a week shattered the town’s sense of safety. Some businesses closed early and college students said they were too frightened even to attend daytime classes on campus.
Trump vows to go after ‘radical Left’ colleges, echoing DeSantis approach - Former President Donald Trump is calling for a drastic expansion of the federal government’s oversight of colleges and universities, vowing to “reclaim” campuses that he asserts are “dominated by Marxist Maniacs and lunatics.” In a video released by his campaign on Tuesday, Trump outlined a plan to reshape higher education if he returns to the White House, echoing some of the policies that his possible Republican primary rival, Gov. Ron DeSantis, has pursued in Florida. “The time has come to reclaim our once great educational institutions from the radical Left, and we will do that,” Trump said. “Our secret weapon will be the college accreditation system.” Trump said he would “fire” the existing accrediting organizations that oversee colleges and universities and replace them with new accreditors who would impose a range of new standards on colleges. Under the plan, colleges would be required to remove all administrators involved in diversity, equity and inclusion efforts, whom Trump decried as “Marxist” bureaucrats. Colleges would also be required to offer options for “accelerated and low-cost degrees” and provide “meaningful job placement and career services.” And Trump would also force colleges to implement entrance and exit exams “to prove that students are actually learning and getting their money’s worth.” In addition, the plan suggests that colleges would be required to ensure that their curriculum defends “the American tradition and Western civilization,” though it does not provide additional details on what precisely that would entail. Trump’s pledge comes as DeSantis has made it a key priority to drastically reshape Florida colleges and universities. DeSantis is pushing legislation, which advanced in the state Senate last week, to restrict state colleges and universities from spending money on diversity, equity and inclusion programs. And he’s also sought to transform a public liberal arts school — New College of Florida — into a more conservative-leaning institution.
Thomas' longtime friend acknowledges — but defends — Harlan Crow tuition payments - Mark Paoletta, a longtime friend of Supreme Court Justice Clarence Thomas and lawyer to his wife, acknowledged that GOP megadonor Harlan Crow paid private school tuition for Thomas’ great-nephew, but Paoletta said the justice did nothing wrong. A new ProPublica report published Thursday morning revealed that Crow spent thousands of dollars on private school tuition for Thomas’ relative, who he was raising “as a son.” Thomas didn’t disclose the tuition payments as gifts, and Paoletta argued disclosure wouldn’t have been necessary.The real estate magnate footed the $6,000-per-month bill for Hidden Lake Academy, a private school in Georgia, for one year, the ProPublica report said, and then paid for tuition at another boarding school in Virginia. It’s unclear how much Crow put down, but if he paid for all four years at the two schools, the bill would be more than $150,000, the report found.Thomas’ ties with Crow have come under a microscope ever since ProPublica reported last month that Crow had financed luxury vacations for the justice for over two decades, which Thomas did not report.
FDA weighing 1st over-the-counter birth control pill (AP) — U.S. health regulators are weighing the first-ever request to make a birth control pill available without a prescription. Advisers to the Food and Drug Administration meet next week to review drugmaker Perrigo’s application to sell a decades-old pill over the counter. The two-day public meeting is one of the last steps before an FDA decision. If the FDA grants the company’s request, Opill would become the first contraceptive pill to be moved out from behind the pharmacy counter onto store shelves or online. But in an initial review posted Friday, the FDA raised numerous concerns about studies of Opill, citing problems with the reliability of some of the company’s data and questions about whether women with certain other medical conditions would correctly opt out of taking it. It also noted signs that study participants had trouble understanding the labeling instructions. The agency will ask the panel to consider whether younger teenagers will be able to understand and follow the instructions. At the end of the meeting, the FDA panel will vote on whether the benefits of making the pill more widely available outweigh the potential risks. The panel vote is not binding and the FDA is expected to make its final decision this summer.
Feds: Hospitals that denied emergency abortion broke the law — Two hospitals that refused to provide an emergency abortion to a pregnant woman who was experiencing premature labor put her life in jeopardy and violated federal law, a first-of-its-kind investigation by the federal government has found.The findings, revealed in documents obtained by The Associated Press, are a warning to hospitals around the country as they struggle to reconcile dozens of new state laws that ban or severely restrict abortion with a federal mandate for doctors to provide abortions when a woman’s health is at risk. The competing edicts have been rolled out since the Supreme Court overturned the constitutional right to an abortion last year.But federal law, which requires doctors to treat patients in emergency situations, trumps those state laws, the nation’s top health official said in a statement. “Fortunately, this patient survived. But she never should have gone through the terrifying ordeal she experienced in the first place,” Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra said. “We want her, and every patient out there like her, to know that we will do everything we can to protect their lives and health, and to investigate and enforce the law to the fullest extent of our legal authority, in accordance with orders from the courts.”
Covid was fourth leading cause of death in 2022, CDC data shows - The waning of the pandemic led to fewer deaths in America in 2022 than in 2021, according to preliminary data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. But heart disease and cancer deaths rose, and covid-19 remained remarkably lethal, killing more than 500 people a day. The report shows an overall drop of 5.3 percent in the death rate from all causes, a signal that the country last year had exited the worst phase of the pandemic. Deaths from covid dropped 47 percent between 2021 and 2022.But covid has not magically become like the flu or a new type of cold. Even though the population had built up high levels of immunity from vaccination and natural infection, covid was the fourth leading cause of death in 2022, behind heart disease (699,659 deaths), cancer (607,790) and “unintentional injury,” which includes drug overdoses (218,064). The CDC estimated that covid was the underlying cause of 186,702 deaths and a contributing factor in another 58,284. “Covid continues to smolder in our communities, picking off the most fragile among us, just as lions in Africa strike the older and slower antelopes.”By far the biggest killers remain heart disease and cancer. This was the third straight year the age-adjusted death rate from heart disease has risen, and the second straight year for cancer deaths. The death rate from all causes in the United States in 2022 was almost as high as the rate in 2020, and much higher than in 2019. Some of the increase in heart disease and cancer deaths may be an effect of the pandemic. For example, cancer screenings declined as many people chose to postpone medical visits. Heart disease may have also been exacerbated by inflammation related to covid. But there has been a well-documented erosion of health in the country for working-age people, a trend that predated the pandemic. Life expectancy historically has improved along with improvements in infant and maternal mortality rates, as well as better public health measures, including vaccinations, that limit the ravages from infectious diseases. But the gains in U.S. life expectancy plateaued after 2010, and it declined for several years mid-decade before ticking up slightly just before the coronavirus appeared.The dismaying mortality numbers were due in part to the opioid epidemic, but other factors played a role, including a slowing of what had been positive trends in treating heart disease as the nation struggled with high rates of obesity and hypertension. Covid drove life expectancy even lower, to the same level as 1996, according to CDC data released last year. Against that recent history of poor health trends, the new CDC data is not encouraging.
US COVID-19 hospitalization disparities lessened but persisted in vaccine era - An analysis by Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) scientists of more than 350,000 hospitalized COVID-19 patients reveals that racial and ethnic disparities declined but persisted in the era of vaccination.The researchers assessed data from the COVID-19-Associated Hospitalization Surveillance Network (COVID-NET) from 353,807 patients who had hospital stays at any point from March 2020 through August 2022. Vaccines were rolled out in December 2020. The group published its findings today in Clinical Infectious Diseases.The CDC scientists found that hospitalization rates were higher among Hispanic, Black and American Indian/Alaskan Native (AI/AN) people versus White people during the study period, but the magnitude of the disparities declined over time. In Hispanic patients, the relative risk (RR) dropped from 6.7 in June 2020 to less than 2.0 after July 2021. For AI/AN patients, the RR dropped from 8.4 to less than 2.0 after March 2022, and for Black populations it declined from 5.3 to less than 2.0 after February 2022. Among 8,706 patients hospitalized from July 2021 through August 2022, hospital and intensive care unit admission rates were higher for Hispanic, Black, and AI/AN patients than White patients but lower than White patients among Asians and Pacific Islanders. All minority race and ethnicity groups had higher in-hospital mortality rates than did White patients (RR range, 1.4 to 2.9).The authors conclude, "Developing strategies to ensure equitable access to vaccination and treatment remains important."
Bivalent COVID vaccine shows good Omicron protection while older version wanes - Two studies published today measure the vaccine effectiveness (VE) of COVID-19 vaccines against laboratory-confirmed Omicron variant and subvariants and symptomatic disease. Vaccines that target the newer variants performed well, but primary vaccines offered rapidly waning protection from SARS-CoV-2 infections in the post-Omicron era. In Open Forum Infectious Diseases, researchers share their case-control study, which measured the effectiveness of bivalent (two-strain) COVID-19 mRNA vaccines against symptomatic infection during the BA.5-dominant period in Japan—September 20 through December 31, 2022. This is one of the first studies to measure VE of newer BA.4/BA.5-containing bivalent vaccines, which were developed in 2022 to target highly transmissible Omicron subvariants. The study included 6,191 subjects seen at 10 medical centers in the Kanto region of Japan, including Tokyo. A total of 3,498 positive COVID-19 cases were identified, and BA.5 was estimated to be responsible for 75% to 100% of SARS-CoV-2 infections documented in the study. The VE of bivalent vaccine (regardless of which subvariant the vaccine targeted) was 72% (95% confidence interval [CI], 61% to 80%) against Omicron infection. When broken down by subvariant targeted in the bivalent vaccine, the VE of BA.1-containing bivalent vaccine was 65% (95% CI, 47% to 77%) and the VE of BA.4/BA.5-containing bivalent vaccine was 76% (95% CI, 65% to 83%).The authors also compared the VE of bivalent vaccines against monovalent vaccines administered 3 to 6 months prior. They found the VE of bivalent vaccine (regardless of subvariant targeted) versus monovalent vaccines post-3 to 6 months was 35% (95% CI, 15% to 51%), while VE comparing bivalent vaccine versus monovalent vaccines post-6 months was 46% (95% CI, 30% to 58%).However, the bivalent vaccines were not as effective against the Omicron subvariants as the original, monovalent vaccines were against the ancestral strain (Alpha) and Delta variants (85% to 95%), the authors noted. In a second study in JAMA Network Open, authors conducted a meta-analysis of 40 studies to determine the VE of a primary vaccination cycle—involving the monovalent (one-strain) vaccine—against both laboratory-confirmed Omicron infection and symptomatic disease.The authors found evidence that VE waned quickly and significantly. Pooled estimates of VE of a primary vaccination cycle against laboratory-confirmed Omicron infection and symptomatic disease were both lower than 20% at 6 months from the last dose.The type of vaccine used for the primary series mattered, however, with higher VE found at 1 month from the second dose administration for mRNA-1273 (Moderna) (61.9%; 95% CI, 46.8% to 76.9%) and BNT162b2 (Pfizer-BioNTech) (59.3%; 95% CI, 54.3% to 64.4%) compared with ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 (AstraZeneca) (45.9%; 95% CI, 38.0% to 54.1%) and CoronaVac (Sinovac) (32.4%; 95% CI, 23.7% to 36.8%).In comparison, pooled estimates show that VE against symptomatic disease caused by the Delta variant was 79.6% (95% CI, 72.1% to 87.2%) at 1 month after completion of the primary vaccination cycle.
Study of Novavax COVID vaccine estimates 100% efficacy against hospitalizations -- A post hoc analysis of a phase 3 randomized, controlled trial estimates that two doses of the Novavax (NVX-CoV2373) COVID-19 vaccine were 100% effective against hospitalization by 95 days during a period dominated by the SARS-CoV-2 Alpha variant.For the analysis, published late last week in Vaccine, Novavax researchers parsed data from the PREVENT-19 trial of two doses of the Novavax vaccine or a placebo given 21 days apart to 25,482 patients in the United States and Mexico. PREVENT-19 evaluated vaccine effectiveness (VE) against moderate to severe infection but not hospitalization.The US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) issued an emergency use authorization of Novavax on July 13, 2022. "Due to the relatively short time span since the authorization of NVX-CoV2373, real-world effectiveness data that may inform its impact on hospitalization are not yet available," the researchers wrote.From January 25 to April 30, 2021, four hospitalizations occurred among 77 events in the per-protocol efficacy population (17,312 Novavax recipients with confirmed polymerase chain reaction [PCR] infections, 8,140 controls). The hospitalizations were all among placebo recipients, for a post hoc VE of 100% (95% confidence interval [CI], 28.8% to 100%). One case was moderate, and three were severe.In a post hoc analysis of an expanded efficacy population, which included COVID-19 hospitalizations without a requirement for PCR testing, 12 hospitalizations occurred, all among placebo recipients, for a VE against hospitalization of 100% (95% CI, 83.1% to 100%). Three infections were moderate, and eight were severe, including one death.The authors noted that hospitalized patients had a high prevalence of chronic conditions, such as obesity (body mass index [BMI] of 30 or more), high blood pressure, and diabetes."These results suggest that the vaccine is effective in reducing the risk of hospitalization due to COVID-19, especially in populations with pre-existing comorbid conditions and higher BMIs," they wrote. "Moving forward, real-world evidence studies on the effectiveness of NVX-CoV2373 in reducing hospitalization, particularly in high-risk populations, are needed to inform global public health policies and ensure the continued success of vaccination campaigns."
Data show Omicron common cause of COVID-19 reinfections A study of 541 children and young adults in Ohio with two or more SARS-CoV-2 infections finds that the median interval between two infections was 229 days, and reinfection counts were higher during the Omicron era. The study is published in the Journal of the Pediatric Infectious Diseases Society.The study was based on confirmed COVID-19 infections seen in children and adults 21 years and younger from March 2020 to September 2022. The authors identified 541 case-patients who had two or more infections and defined the type of SARS-CoV-2 variant in the first and subsequent infections by mutation-specific typing or local epidemiology data.The median age of patients at the time of their second infection was 7.85 years, and 56 children were less than 1 year of age; 270 patients (49.9%) were male. More than half of the case-patients (287, or 54.3%) had an underlying condition. Of those, chronic respiratory disease (asthma, bronchopulmonary dysplasia, cystic fibrosis) was most common (16.1%), followed by obesity (13.2%).Sixty-nine children (12.8%) were fully vaccinated prior to their second infection. Hospitalization rates were lower in the second infection (2.8%, compared with 6.0% during the first infection).Though the average interval between reinfection was more than 200 days, during the Omicron variant phase of the pandemic some patients had documented reinfections in as little as 45 days. "Thirty-eight (7.0%) had reinfection that occurred less than 90 days after the first infection, among which three had both samples available for typing. All three had a Delta variant infection followed by [Omicron] BA.1 infection with intervals of 45, 68, and 83 days," the authors wrote.The authors said reinfections rates were likely linked to the high transmissibility of Omicron, as well as to the return of in-person schooling.
Cytokine deficiencies in patients with Long-COVID - Abstract: Up to half of individuals who contract SARS-CoV-2 develop symptoms of long-COVID approximately three months after initial infection. These symptoms are highly variable, and the mechanisms inducing them are yet to be understood. We compared plasma cytokine levels from individuals with long-COVID to healthy individuals and found that those with long-COVID had 100% reductions in circulating levels of Interferon Gamma (IFNγ) and Interleukin-8 (IL-8). Additionally, we found significant reductions in levels of IL-6, IL-2, IL-17, IL-13, and IL-4 in individuals with long-COVID. We propose immune exhaustion as the driver of long-COVID, with the complete absence of IFNγ and IL-8preventing the lungs and other organs from healing after acute infection, and reducing the ability to fight off subsequent infections, both contributing to the myriad of symptoms suffered by those with long-COVID.
Disease detectives gathered at CDC event—a COVID outbreak erupted -- Disease detectives with the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention are on the case of a new COVID-19 outbreak—the one at their very own conference, which has sickened around 35 attendees as of Tuesday.Last week, the CDC hosted the 2023 Epidemic Intelligence Service (EIS) Conference in Atlanta, the first time the conference has been held in person since 2019. The annual event, which dates back seven decades, was fully virtual last year and was canceled entirely in 2020 and 2021 while EIS officers were immersed in the pandemic response."The COVID-19 pandemic has been hard on everyone and especially for our public health workforce. … We are thankful you are back with us at the EIS conference," EIS leaders wrote in the preface of this year's conference agenda, celebrating the return of the in-person gathering.But signs of trouble turned up quickly. Several attendees reportedly tested positive during the conference, which spanned Monday, April 24 to Thursday, April 27, and drew about 2,000 participants. Some told The Washington Post that moderators at the conference warned several times about positive cases. CDC spokesperson Kristen Nordlund told Ars in an email that EIS leaders noted the cases during the closing session of the conference. The conference leaders also canceled an in-person training, emailed all officers with current CDC guidance, and offered to extend the hotel stays of sick attendees who needed to isolate, according to the Post.On Friday, April 28, a CDC branch chief emailed staff about the potential outbreak. The email, obtained by the Post, read: “We’re letting you know that several people who attended the EIS Conference have tested positive for COVID-19." The email said that at least one person at a recruiting event on Wednesday had tested positive.
Arcturus COVID variant cases on the rise, symptoms include pink eye --The latest COVID variant spreading through the U.S. with one symptom appearing to be more prevalent than in the past. Health officials are keeping an eye on the omicron subvariant XBB.1.16, also dubbed Arcturus. The subvariant now accounts for 12% of new COVID-19 cases in the U.S., up from 7.4% the previous week, according to data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Given XBB.1.16′s high transmissibility, it’s believed it will outpace the current dominate strain in circulation – XBB.1.5 – and take the lead by summer. The World Health Organization has currently classified XBB.1.16 as a “variant under monitoring,” a less serious designation than “variant of interest” or “variant of concern.” So far, there’s no indication XBB.1.16 causes more severe illness than previous variants but it is presenting with a higher prevalence of a certain symptom – pink eye. While conjunctivitis, or pink eye, have been reported among COVID patients in the past, researchers in India said it’s more common in the latest subvariant. Higher fevers have also been reported. Symptoms reported in children are:
- High fever
- Cough
- “Itchy” conjunctivitis or pinkeye without pus, but with “sticky eyes”
Symptoms of conjunctivitis include:
- Tearing or watery eyes
- Redness
- Swelling
- Pain or irritation
- Itching
- Discharge
Classic COVID symptoms include:
- Fever or chills
- Cough
- Shortness of breath or difficulty breathing
- Fatigue
- Muscle or body aches
- Headache
- New loss of taste or smell
- Sore throat
- Congestion or runny nose
- Nausea or vomiting
- Diarrhea
Why the New “Arcturus” Covid Variant Is Raising Concerns - Mask mandates may have lifted, and people are hugging again (when they want to), but let’s not get ahead of ourselves: It doesn’t look like the pandemic is over just yet. Three years in, a new, highly contagious variant has just emerged and it might be the most transmissible one yet. The new strain, “Arcturus” or XBB.1.16, could be as much as 1.2 times more infectious than the last major sub-variant, Kraken, according to researchers from the University of Tokyo, who expect the strain to “spread worldwide in the near future.” . XBB.1.16 was first detected in January and most cases have been in India. In fact, it has gotten so bad there that the country’s health ministry has held mock drills to ensure that hospitals are prepared for rising cases. Then in April, the World Health Organization deemed XBB.1.16 a “variant of interest.” After outbreaks in several states like New York and Georgia, the variant now appears to be spreading across the U.S. But for now, health officials say it’s too early to tell what kind of impact it will have: “We haven’t seen an increase in any of the indicators that make us worry,” Ali Mokdad, a professor of global health at the University of Washington, told NBC News. Arcturus is technically the Omicron subvariant XBB.1.16 that scientists say is “robustly resistant” to antibodies from previous Covid variants, including “stealth Omicron” BA.2 and BA.5, both of which surged last summer. Combined with its heightened transmissibility, mutations of the new variant could potentially make it more difficult for the immune system to fight, leading to an uptick in cases, even in places that have just had spikes in Covid infections. The main symptoms of the new variant resemble those of Omicron: Fever, cough, and a sore throat. But one symptom that might be unique to this particular Covid strain is conjunctivitis, or “sticky eyes,” which is basically pinkeye that feels itchy but comes without the pus. Doctors in India are seeing these symptoms primarily among kids, especially those under 12 years old. “Usually, these children come with simple respiratory infections of cough, cold, and fever, and when tested they turn out to be positive,” local pediatrician Dr. Rahul Nagpal told India Today. Arcturus has caused a major uptick in infections across India — there were 7,830 new Covid cases in a single day at one point, according to the health ministry data. Since then, Arcturus has also been detected in 22 other countries, including the U.K. and the U.S., but the good news is that it hasn’t been rapidly spiking at a global level. But that doesn’t mean the spread of XBB.1.16 isn’t a concern. It has become more prevalent in some regions of the country like Texas and Arkansas, accounting for roughly 21 percent of all Covid cases. What’s worse is traces of it have been identified via airport surveillance. “These kinds of things highlight the importance of genomic surveillance but a lot of countries, including our own, have let our guards down a bit and we can’t be sure what variants are around and what level of infection they’re causing until we see a significant outbreak,”
Why New COVID Variant XBB.1.16 Seems to Be Causing Pink Eye --It’s not uncommon for any virus—SARS-CoV-2, the coronavirus that causes COVID-19, included—to cause conjunctivitis, Dr. Schaffner says. In fact, conjunctivitis has been the only COVID symptom in a small number of people, research shows. This is especially true for children, according to the American Academy of Ophthalmology. It’s also worth pointing out that this potential symptom isn’t entirely surprising, even with the steady rise of Arcturus—experts were exploring pink eye as a possible sign of the virus back in 2020, shortly after COVID-19 was first declared a pandemic.SARS-CoV-2 can be transmitted via respiratory aerosols or droplets, optometrist Aaron Zimmerman, OD, a clinical professor at The Ohio State University College of Optometry, tells SELF. “These aerosols and droplets can infect someone via the respiratory tract and in the mucus membranes of the eyes,” he explains. “If the surface of the eye is exposed to a high enough concentration of virus, then an infection can occur.” This can lead to what’s known as viral conjunctivitis, a.k.a. pink eye, he says. (The conjunctiva is the thin membrane that covers the front of the eye and lines the inside of the eyelids.)Here’s the thing: There are plenty of other reasons you may develop pink eye. “The conjunctiva can also become infected from bacteria or can be involved in allergic responses,” Dr. Zimmerman says. Further complicating things, he points out that allergic conjunctivitis, which is inflammation of the eyes caused by—you guessed it—allergens like pollen, is “quite common in the spring and fall” and results in red, itchy, and watery eyes. (Bacterial conjunctivitis is also a thing.)“There are other viruses that cause pink eye but, if you suddenly get pink eye, I would at least consider COVID,” Dr. Schaffner says. “COVID-related pink eye tends to occur along with other symptoms in the body, such as fever and cough,” Simon Fung, MD, an assistant professor of pediatric ophthalmology at UCLA Health, tells SELF. “Eye allergy is especially common during spring and summertime, so it could all be quite confusing.” That said, there are some key clues that you’re dealing with COVID versus allergies.If you have what looks like pink eye and develop stringy mucus, or your eyes are really itchy, it’s more likely that you’re dealing with allergies, Dr. Zimmerman says. “One of the biggest differentiators is the symptom of itch, which nearly always accompanies allergic conjunctivitis,” he says. “If you develop red eyes that are watery, and associated with some mucus but lack itch, then it likely is viral conjunctivitis,” Dr. Zimmerman says. This doesn’t automatically mean you have COVID-19—another common virus like adenovirus, which can cause a cold, could also be the culprit, he adds. Plus, these aren’t hard-and-fast guidelines: Some people with viral pink eye may experience some itchiness too. No matter what you think the issue might be, sudden eye symptoms warrant a visit with a doctor, if you have access to one. If a health care provider confirms you are, in fact, dealing with viral pink eye, Dr. Fung says it’s important to try to avoid touching your eyes, or you risk spreading the infection to others.
Virological characteristics of the SARS-CoV-2 omicron XBB.1.16 variant - The Lancet Infectious Diseases -- In late February, 2023, some sublineages of the SARS-CoV-2 omicron XBB variant harbouring the F486P substitution in the spike protein (eg, XBB.1.5 and XBB.1.9) predominated worldwide, according to Nextstrain. XBB.1.16, an XBB sublineage that also harbours the F486P substitution, has been subsequently detected in various countries. XBB.1.16 emerged independently from XBB.1.5 (appendix p 13). Compared with XBB.1.5, XBB.1.16 has two substitutions in the spike protein: E180V in the N-terminal domain and T478R in the receptor-binding domain (RBD; appendix p 13). XBB.1.16 outcompeted other variants in India by the end of March, 2023 (appendix p 13). Notably, XBB.1.16's effective reproductive number (Re) in India was 1·22-fold higher than the parental XBB.1 and 1·13-fold higher than XBB.1.5 (appendix p 13). Similar trend of increasing lineage frequency and higher relative Re was also found in USA, Singapore, and Australia (appendix p 13), suggesting that XBB.1.16 could spread worldwide soon. In fact, on March 30, 2023, WHO classified XBB.1.16 as a variant being monitored.1 We next investigated the virological features of XBB.1.16. Yeast surface display assay2 showed that the dissociation constant of XBB.1.16 RBD to the human ACE2 receptor is significantly (2·4-fold) higher than that of XBB.1.5 RBD (appendix p 13), suggesting that the binding affinity of XBB.1.16 RBD to ACE2 is lower than that of XBB.1.5 RBD. However, pseudovirus experiments showed that the infectivity of XBB.1.16 was similar to that of XBB.1.5 (appendix p 13). The discrepancy of the results of yeast surface display assay and pseudovirus experiments might be due to monomeric versus trimeric spike conformations (appendix p 13). Neutralisation assays showed the robust resistance of XBB.1.16 to BA.2 breakthrough infection sera (18-fold vs B.1.1) and BA.5 breakthrough infection sera (37-fold vs B.1.1; appendix p 13). The sensitivity of XBB.1.16 and XBB.1.5 to BA.2 breakthrough infection sera was similar (appendix p 13). However, XBB.1.16 and XBB.1.5+T478R were 1·45-fold and 1·38-fold more sensitive to BA.5 breakthrough infection sera than XBB.1.5 with statistical significance (appendix p 13). The sensitivity of XBB.1.16 to convalescent sera of XBB.1-infected hamsters3 was similar to those of XBB.1 and XBB.1.5 (appendix p 13). The antigenic cartograph4 based on our neutralisation assays showed that the antigenicity of XBB.1.16 is slightly different from that of XBB.1.5 and is relatively close to that of XBB.1 (appendix p 13). We finally tested the neutralisation efficacy of six clinically available monoclonal antibodies and showed that only sotrovimab exhibits antiviral activity against XBB subvariants, including XBB.1.16 (appendix p 7). These results suggest that XBB.1, XBB.1.5, and XBB.1.16 are robustly resistant to several anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibodies. Altogether, our data suggest that XBB.1.16 has a greater growth advantage in the human population compared with XBB.1 and XBB.1.5, whereas the ability of XBB.1.16 to exhibit profound immune evasion is similar to XBB.1 and XBB.1.5. Since the spike proteins of XBB.1.16 and XBB.1.5 exhibit similar characteristics in terms of infectivity and escape ability from humoral immunity, the increased fitness of XBB.1.16 might be attributed to the mutations in non-spike proteins.
Disease detectives gathered at CDC event—a COVID outbreak erupted -- Disease detectives with the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention are on the case of a new COVID-19 outbreak—the one at their very own conference, which has sickened around 35 attendees as of Tuesday.Last week, the CDC hosted the 2023 Epidemic Intelligence Service (EIS) Conference in Atlanta, the first time the conference has been held in person since 2019. The annual event, which dates back seven decades, was fully virtual last year and was canceled entirely in 2020 and 2021 while EIS officers were immersed in the pandemic response."The COVID-19 pandemic has been hard on everyone and especially for our public health workforce. … We are thankful you are back with us at the EIS conference," EIS leaders wrote in the preface of this year's conference agenda, celebrating the return of the in-person gathering.But signs of trouble turned up quickly. Several attendees reportedly tested positive during the conference, which spanned Monday, April 24 to Thursday, April 27, and drew about 2,000 participants. Some told The Washington Post that moderators at the conference warned several times about positive cases. CDC spokesperson Kristen Nordlund told Ars in an email that EIS leaders noted the cases during the closing session of the conference. The conference leaders also canceled an in-person training, emailed all officers with current CDC guidance, and offered to extend the hotel stays of sick attendees who needed to isolate, according to the Post.On Friday, April 28, a CDC branch chief emailed staff about the potential outbreak. The email, obtained by the Post, read: “We’re letting you know that several people who attended the EIS Conference have tested positive for COVID-19." The email said that at least one person at a recruiting event on Wednesday had tested positive.
XBB.1.16 Variant Most Dominant Strain Of Covid In India: Health Body -- More than 1,300 samples of Omicron sub-variant XBB2.3 have been detected in India, while XBB.1.16 has become the dominant strain in the country, according to INSACOG data. The samples of XBB2.3 have been found across 24 states and union territories. At 307, the highest number of samples was found in Gujarat, followed by 183 in Delhi, 178 in Karnataka and 164 in Maharashtra, the Indian SARS-CoV-2 Genomics Consortium (INSACOG) data stated. XBB1.16 sub-variant has been found in 91.7 per cent of samples in central India, 100 per cent in northeast India, 52.8 per cent in north India, 50 per cent in east India, 75 per cent in south India and 67.1 per cent in west India, it showed. XBB.2.3 seems to be growing across the world, with the earliest samples found in mid-December in Karnataka and Delaware in the US. So, the origin is somewhat unclear, a senior scientist said. Also, the domination of the XBB recombinant variant and its sub-lineages is almost complete in India, with XBB1.16 becoming the dominant strain in most of the country, he said.
- The World Health Organization (WHO) said today that its COVID-19 emergency committee will meet on May 4 to assess if the situation still warrants a public health emergency of international concern (PHEIC), which it declared on Jan 30, 2020. The committee typically meets every 3 months, or more often as needed. At a media briefing last week, WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, PhD, said the virus is still changing and is still capable of causing more waves of infections and deaths, but he said the WHO hopes that the group can declare and end of the PHEIC sometime this year.
- Nigeria is experiencing a large Lassa fever outbreak, with case levels higher than previous epidemic seasons, the WHO said in an outbreak announcement today. So far this year, nearly 5,600 cases have been reported, 877 of them confirmed, in 26 of 36 states. There are 152 deaths among the confirmed cases. Though Nigeria is skilled at managing Lassa fever outbreaks, the risk to the country is high, owing to the multiple outbreaks and humanitarian situations health officials are juggling. Lassa fever is mainly spread via contact with food our household items that are contaminated by rat droppings and urine, though human-to-human transmission can occur.
- Indonesia since 2022 has reported an increase in suspected and confirmed measles cases compared to previous years, the WHO said in an Apr 28 statement. Since January, 2,161 cases, 848 of them lab-confirmed, have been reported in 18 of the country's 38 provinces. Though the disease is endemic in Indonesia, there were significant increases in 2022 and 2023. Suboptimal immunity is a factor: Among cases this year, 75% occurred in people who had not received any doses of measles-containing vaccine.
WHO Declares Covid-19 Global Health Emergency Officially Over -The World Health Organization chief announced Friday that it is "with great hope that I declare Covid-19 over as a global health emergency." WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus had declared the emergency of international concern on January 30, 2020, when there were fewer than 100 reported cases outside of China."In the three years since then, Covid-19 has turned our world upside down," Tedros noted Friday. "Almost 7 million deaths have been reported to WHO, but we know the toll is several times higher—at least 20 million." "But Covid-19 has been so much more than a health crisis," he continued. "It has caused severe economic upheaval, erasing trillions from GDP, disrupting travel and trade, shuttering businesses, and plunging millions into poverty."Stressing that the move does not mean the virus "is over as a global health threat," Tedros said that "it is time for countries to transition from emergency mode to managing Covid-19 alongside other infectious diseases." The public health emergency of international concern (PHEIC) "is a tool created within the International Health Regulations to help the WHO respond to disease events with the potential for global spread,"STAT explained. As the news outlet reported: When a PHEIC is in place, the WHO director-general can make special recommendations, mainly aimed at discouraging countries from closing borders or restricting trade—actions that could deter countries from alerting the WHO if they are dealing with dangerous disease outbreaks. Didier Houssin, the chair of the emergency committee, said the decision to recommend an end to the PHEIC was in part due to the belief that the tool was not adapted to disease events that are sub-acute or chronic. Houssin acknowledged that there remains a risk that a more pathogenic variant of the SARS-CoV-2 virus may emerge, and that a new PHEIC might need to be declared.The WHO's declaration comes days before the U.S. public health emergency will expire, on May 11. The Biden administration announced Monday that when the U.S. emergency ends next week, so will Covid-19 vaccine requirements for federal employees and contractors as well as international air travelers—and agencies will start the process to cancel such mandates for Head Start educators, employees of some healthcare facilities, and certain noncitizens at land borders.
First-ever vaccine to prevent RSV in older adults wins FDA approval - Federal regulators gave the green light to the first-ever vaccine to prevent the respiratory disease RSV on Wednesday, a major breakthrough that’s been decades in the making. The Food and Drug Administration (FDA) approved Arexvy, a shot developed by pharmaceutical giant GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) to prevent lower respiratory tract disease caused by RSV in adults aged 60 and older. The development marks a significant turning point in the fight to protect vulnerable individuals against RSV, and other shots are close behind. A vaccine that was developed by Pfizer and aimed at the same demographic is expected to be approved by the end of the month. FDA is also considering Pfizer’s maternal RSV vaccine, intended to be given to pregnant individuals to help protect against RSV in infants. RSV circulation is seasonal, typically starting during the fall and peaking in the winter. The vaccine is expected to be available before the start of next RSV season. In healthy adults and older children, RSV typically causes mild, cold-like symptoms that go away with moderate rest and self care. But older adults, including those with underlying medical conditions such as diabetes and chronic heart and lung disease, are at increased risk of severe RSV illness and drive the majority of RSV hospitalizations. RSV causes between 60,000 and 160,000 hospitalizations annually for adults older than 65 in the U.S. and 6,000 to 13,000 deaths, according to federal statistics.
Flour implicated in 13-case Salmonella outbreak across 12 states -Following a Gold Medal flour recall due to Salmonella, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) yesterday posted an update connecting the product to an ongoing outbreak that has now sickened at least 13 people in 12 states. Three people have been hospitalized, but no deaths have been reported. Two people have been sickened in Illinois, and one person each in Oregon, California, Nebraska, Minnesota, Iowa, Missouri, Tennessee, Ohio, Virginia, New York, and New Jersey. Sick people range in age from 12 to 81 years, with a median age of 64, and 92% are female.The CDC said the outbreak is likely significantly bigger than what has been reported. Illness-onset dates range from December 6, 2022, to March 1, 2023.Of eight people interviewed, seven (88%) reported eating raw dough or batter before they got sick. All six patients who knew brand information reported buying Gold Medal flour, made by General Mills of Minneapolis.Late last week, General Mills recalled 2-pound, 5-pound, and 10-pound bags of Gold Medal bleached and unbleached all-purpose flour with "better if used by" dates of March 27, 2024, and March 28, 2024.The recall happened after the Food and Drug Administration conducted a trace-back investigation and identified a single production facility of the flour consumed by sick people, the CDC said. The facility was in Kansas City, Missouri.The CDC recommends throwing away all stored flour that may be contaminated, and to avoid eating uncooked flour in products such as cookie dough.
Study links international travel to increased risk of drug-resistant Salmonella - An analysis of reported non-typhoidal Salmonella (NTS) infections in the United States suggests international travel is a significant risk factor for antibiotic resistance, US researchers reported today in the Journal of Infectious Diseases.Although most of the 1.35 million NTS infections that occur each year in the United States don't require antibiotic treatment, antibiotics are needed for more severe invasive infections, and roughly 16% of reported NTS infections are antibiotic resistant. To assess the documented links between international travel and antibiotic-resistant NTS infections, a team led by researchers with the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention analyzed NTS infections reported to the Foodborne Diseases Active Surveillance Network during 2018-2019 that were screened for resistance genes, including those conferring resistance to first-line agents (ciprofloxacin, ceftriaxone, or azithromycin). They used multivariable regression analysis to estimate the contribution of international travel to drug-resistant NTS infections.Among 9,301 NTS infections with sequenced isolates and known travel status, 1,159 (12%) occurred after recent international travel. Among 1,220 infections with predicted resistance to first-line antibiotics, 30% were among travelers and 19% were estimated to be attributable to international travel during the 7 days before illness began.Adjusted for age, sex, and season, NTS infections following recent travel were more likely to have predicted resistance for first-line antibiotics compared with non-travelers (adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 3.7; 95% confidence interval [CI], 3.2 to 4.3). The odds of predicted resistance to first-line antibiotics were highest among travelers to Asia (aOR, 7.2; 95% CI, 5.5 to 9.5). The highest incidence of infections resistant to first-line antibiotics was in Latin America and the Caribbean (3 per 100,000 travelers).The study authors say the association between travel and antibiotic resistance could be related to increased selection pressure for resistance genes in particular regions from use of antibiotics in human medicine but could also be linked to antibiotic use in animals. They also say that use of whole genome sequencing for NTS surveillance can help track resistant strains.
Mpox cases rise 7% in Africa as Europe reports 17 new infections - In the latest global mpox developments, Africa has had a 7.4% case increase, with 111 new cases in the most recent 2 weeks; officials report 17 cases in the past month in Europe; and New South Wales (NSW), Australia confirmed its first case in 6 months.The rise in Africa is almost exclusively spurred by a spike in mpox cases in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), according to a report yesterday from the World Health Organization (WHO) Africa Region. Of the 111 new cases on the continent in the past 2 weeks, 106 have been in the DRC, with Nigeria and Liberia confirming 2 each and Ghana reporting 1.The DRC has seen a 23.6% increase in cases in recent weeks and has logged 277 infections so far in 2023. The only other African country to report mpox cases this year is the Central African Republic. According to a report yesterday from the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control and the WHO European office, eight European countries reported new mpox cases in the past 4 weeks, with 17 new confirmed infections. This brings the region's total to 25,887 since early 2022. Six of those patients died.Among the European patients, 98% are male and 39% from 31 to 40 years old. Of 11,297 male patients with known sexual orientation, 96% are men who have sex with men.In Australia, officials have confirmed a new case in Sydney, NSW's first case since November, according toNCA Newswire. The patient had not traveled abroad, so it appears to be locally acquired. The state had 56 mpox cases from May to November 2022.
Doctors watching for more cases after mysterious cluster of brain infections strikes kids in southern Nevada — Disease detectives with the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention are investigating a cluster of rare and serious brain abscesses in kids in and around Las Vegas, Nevada, and doctors from other parts of the country say they may be seeing a rise in cases, too. In 2022, the number of brain abscesses in kids tripled in Nevada, rising from an average of four to five a year to 18. “In my 20 years’ experience, I’ve never seen anything like it,” said Dr. Taryn Bragg, an associate professor at the University of Utah who treated the cases. Pediatric neurosurgeons like Bragg are rare. She is the only one for the entire state of Nevada, and because she treated all the cases, she was the first to notice the pattern and to alert local public health officials. “After March of 2022, there was just a huge increase,” in brain abscesses, Bragg said. “I was seeing large numbers of cases and that’s unusual.” “And the similarities in terms of the presentation of cases was striking,” Bragg said. In almost every case, kids would get a common childhood complaint, such as an earache or a sinus infection, with a headache and fever, but within about a week, Bragg says, it would become clear that something more serious was going on. After a presentation on the Nevada cases the Epidemic Intelligence Service Conference on Thursday, doctors from other parts of the country said they are seeing similar increases in brain abscesses in kids. “We’re just impressed by the number of these that we’re seeing right now,” said Dr. Sunil Sood, a pediatric infectious disease specialist at Northwell Health, a health system in New York. He estimates they are seeing at least twice as many as usual, though they haven’t done a formal count. He urged the CDC to continue investigating and work to get the word out. Brain abscesses are not, by themselves, reportable conditions, meaning doctors aren’t required to alert public health departments when they have these cases. They typically only come to the attention of public health officials when doctors notice increases and reach out. Brain abscesses are pus-filled pockets of infection that spread to the brain. They can cause seizures, visual disturbances, or changes in vision, speech, coordination or balance. The earliest symptoms are headaches and a fever that comes and goes. Abscesses often require several surgeries to treat, and kids may spend weeks or even months in the hospital recovering after they have one.
CDC investigators tracking reports of brain abscesses in kids - The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) continues to investigate increased reports of brain abscesses in children, which includes a 2022 cluster from Nevada's Clark County that was detailed last week at the CDC Epidemic Intelligence Service (EIS) annual meeting in Atlanta. Doctors in other locations are seeing similar cases, according to CNN. In the Nevada cluster, health officials in October received reports of a higher-than-expected number of kids who had intracranial abscesses. The investigation by EIS officials found that, from 2015 to 2021, Clark County averaged about four such cases a year. However, 18 cases were reported in 2022, none of them fatal. Fifteen patients required surgery. The median age was 12, and 14 of the patients were boys. Streptococcus intermedius was the most common bacterial pathogen. Nine patients had experienced cold symptoms, and none had been diagnosed as having COVID-19. Three had ear infections, and one patient had a sinus infection. Investigators said more research is needed to identify risk factors and causes of the rare conditions. Experts told CNN that possible explanations could be less exposure to pathogens during the earlier phases of the pandemic or a higher disease burden in the past year, now that COVID-19 cases have fallen. A September 2022 report in Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report examined a possible increase in pediatric streptococcal brain abscesses and epidural empyemas, finding a decline at the start of the pandemic, with an increase in the summer of 2021 and a peak in March 2022. The authors said cases were consistent with seasonal fluctuations and redistribution of cases during the pandemic, but that epidemiologic monitoring continues.
Opinion: This rapidly spreading deadly fungus is a warning about climate change - Last month, the United Nations’ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Changecharted global temperatures to be 1.1 degrees Celsius above preindustrial levels and on a destructive trajectory to surpass 1.5 degrees Celsius of warming by the early 2030s. This intersects surprisingly with another piece of news: the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention sounding the alarm on a sometimes deadlypathogenic yeast that’s spreading rapidly in healthcare facilities.Researchers increasingly believe that the yeast, Candida auris, is the first pathogenic fungus to arise from global warming. Its growing microbial footprint will test how prepared the world is for the disease pressures we face from climate change. In 2022, there were nearly 2,400 C. auris infections in 28 states, with Nevada and California reporting the highest numbers. Clinical cases have increased every year since 2016. The 2022 count is almost 40 times what amounted over a three-year span starting in 2013, the year of the first known case in the United States. Scientists believe that we have long been protected against invasive fungal diseases by our warm core temperature, which few fungal species could tolerate. But innate to any living organism is the ability to adapt. In the ecosystems of coastal wetlands where C. auris has been found in the soil, rising temperatures and salinity have hardened the fungus’ resolve, likely enabling it to survive even at the body temperature of mammals. Candida is a type of yeast with about 200 different species, not all of which lead to devastation. A pathogen’s virulence is the product of its interaction with its host. This may explain why infections wrought by C. auris aren’t typically life-threatening to the average person. But medically vulnerable patients with impaired immune systems — including those with diabetes or renal disease, or who have had an organ transplant — are more susceptible to critical illness. Moreover, C. auris generally resists at least two major classes of antifungals, and potentially as many as four, pushing providers to treat it with drugs that are still unproven.C. auris’ other danger lies in the ability of fungi to hole up in the human body, alongside the trillions of microorganisms that naturally inhabit us, without manifesting signs of an infection. Infectious disease physicians refer to this as colonization.C. auris is more likely to reach and colonize hosts in healthcare settings — a result of patients’ frequent contact with hospitals and nursing homes, medical devices or catheters that bore beneath the skin, connections to ventilators, or repeated courses of antibiotics.Once on a medical ward, C. auris clings tightly to whatever surface it finds — curtains, floors, bed rails, equipment monitors, IV poles. Evidence has shown thatC. auris can persist on both moist and dry surfaces — even the ends of digital thermometers — for up to several weeks, transferring onto unsuspecting patients and fueling hospital outbreaks around the world.
Mild winter could mean an uptick in ticks, Lyme disease across the US -After a mild winter in the U.S., will there be an uptick in ticks this year? Researchers say it is hard to predict how the tick season will play out. This year’s mild winter and early snow melt, though, could mean more ticks earlier than usual and a wider spread of Lyme disease and other tick-borne diseases, scientists said. In Connecticut, ticks are showing up in greater numbers this year, according to Goudarz Molaei, a tick expert for the state. So far, more than 700 ticks have been sent in for a testing program that normally would have gotten 200 to 300 by now. The state typically sees a lot of Lyme disease, which got its name from a Connecticut town. "It’s going to be an above average year for tick activity and abundance," Molaei said. Infected ticks spread bacteria, viruses and parasites that make people sick. Lyme disease is the most common tick-borne infection in the U.S., mostly in the Northeast and Midwest. An estimated 476,000 Americans are diagnosed with Lyme disease each year, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Black-legged ticks, also called deer ticks, can carry more than Lyme-causing bacteria. They can also spread babesiosis, anaplasmosis and Powassan virus disease. The lone star tick, mainly located in southern, eastern and midwestern states, can carry ehrlichiosis and Heartland virus disease. American dog ticks can spread Rocky Mountain spotted fever. Ticks pick up disease-causing germs by biting infected wildlife, usually rodents.
Lyme disease cases are on the rise in Wisconsin - The latest data from the Wisconsin Department of Health Services shows Lyme disease cases have nearly doubled over the past fifteen years and nearly 5,000 cases were reported in 2021. Blacklegged ticks, also known as deer ticks can spread Lyme disease. Lyme disease has been reported in every county in Wisconsin, most cases are seen in May and June. Dr. Gregory DeMuri, pediatric infectious disease physician and professor of pediatrics at the University of Wisconsin School of Medicine and Public Health, said there are many reasons as to why cases are on the rise. “Wisconsin has one of the highest rates of Lyme disease in the country. People are more aware of it. They seek care more. There is possibly more tick activity, too, with climate change and increase in warmer winters and less severe deep freeze winters. The ticks survive better, and as do their food source, which are primarily small mammals and rodents,” DeMuri said. He said Lyme disease is most common in the early spring and summertime. “As soon as the sun gets warm. We have heard of tick exposure, tick activity in early March so the ticks are already out. As soon as it gets warm a little bit, they come out, but they’re really hit with a vengeance in May and June,” DeMuri said. Ticks are also commonly found across the state because they thrive in the natural landscapes. “It likes those grassy areas. It likes the that cool valleys and a driftless area. We see Lyme disease up in the northwestern part of the state as well, where there’s a lot of wooded, forested area,” DeMuri said. He also warns people of the signs and symptoms of Lyme disease, the most common being a rash. “Nerve problems, including a facial droop or infections of the brain itself. The bacteria can also infect the joints and cause arthritis swelling of the joints and sometimes the heart, too,” DeMuri said. He says fatalities from Lyme disease are very rare but it’s still important to get treatment as soon as possible. Be sure to check yourself and your pets for tick bites this time of year, and seek treatment from your doctor if you’re experiencing any signs of Lyme disease.
CWD detected on Michigan deer farm -- Chronic wasting disease (CWD) has been confirmed in a farmed white-tailed deer in Newaygo County, Michigan, according to a statement from the Michigan Department of Agriculture & Rural Development. The disease was detected during routine surveillance for CWD among Michigan's farmed deer population. CWD was first detected in farmed deer in Michigan in 2008, and has since been found on 11 cervid farms, including this latest case, in four counties: Kent (2 detections), Mecosta (4), Montcalm (3), and Newaygo (2). Cervids are members of the deer family, including moose and elk. CWD was first detected in free-ranging deer in the state in 2015 and has now been confirmed in 11 Michigan counties, but no free-ranging white-tailed deer have tested positive for CWD in Newaygo County, which is in the western part of the Lower Peninsula. CWD is a fatal prion disease widely detected in cervids in North America, several Nordic countries, and South Korea. Though CWD has yet to be found in humans, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the World Health Organization recommend against consuming CWD-infected venison.
Synthetic embryos have been implanted into monkey wombs Embryos made from stem cells—instead of a sperm and egg—have been created from monkey cells for the first time. When researchers put these “synthetic embryos” into the uteruses of adult monkeys, some showed the initial signs of pregnancy. It’s the furthest scientists have ever been able to take lab-grown embryos in primates—and the work hints that it may one day be possible to generate fetuses this way. “This is amazing,” says Susana Chuva de Sousa Lopes, a developmental biologist at Leiden University in the Netherlands, who was not involved in the study. “It’s the first time I’ve seen [synthetic embryos] developed so far, and with such good quality.” It is also the first time such embryo-like structures have been implanted in monkeys.The team behind the research, Zhen Liu at the Chinese Academy of Sciences in Shanghai and his colleagues, started with embryonic stem cells originally taken from macaque monkey embryos. These cells have been grown in labs for multiple generations and, given the right conditions, have the potential to develop into pretty much any type of body cell, including those that make up organs, blood, and nervous system.The team used a set of lab conditions, which they tweaked and improved, to encourage embryonic stem cells to develop further. Over several days, the cells began developing in a very similar way to embryos. Theresulting blobs of cells are called blastoids, because they look like early embryos, which are called blastocysts.After the blastoids had been growing in a dish for seven days, the researchers put them through a series of tests to figure out how similar they were to typical embryos. In one test, the team separated the individual cells in the blastoids and checked to see which genes were expressed in each one. The team analyzed over 6,000 individual cells this way.The stem-cell-derived embryos could shed new light on the earliest stages of human pregnancy.These tests revealed close similarities between the stem-cell-derived embryos and conventional monkey embryos. “The … analysis is simply mind-blowing,” says Chuva de Sousa Lopes. “These blastoids seemed to transition to something that really looks like an embryo. And that is really amazing.”
EPA Report on Neonics Proves US Has 'Five-Alarm Fire' on Its Hands, Green Groups Say - A newly published assessment from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency warns that three of the most commonly used neonicotinoid insecticides threaten the continued existence of more than 200 endangered plant and animal species. "The EPA's analysis shows we've got a five-alarm fire on our hands, and there's now no question that neonicotinoids play an outsized role in our heartbreaking extinction crisis," Lori Ann Burd, environmental health director at the Center for Biological Diversity (CBD), said Friday in astatement. "The EPA has to use the authority it has to take fast action to ban these pesticides," said Burd, "so future generations don't live in a world without bees and butterflies and the plants that depend on them." The agency's new analysis found that clothianidin, imidacloprid, andthiamethoxam likely jeopardize the continued existence of 166, 199, and 204 plants and animals protected under the Endangered Species Act (ESA), respectively. This includes 25 distinct insects, more than 160 plants reliant on insect pollination, and dozens of fish, birds, and invertebrates."The Biden administration will have the stain of extinction on its hands if it doesn't muster the courage to stand up to Big Ag and ban these chemicals."Species being put at risk of extinction include the whooping crane, Indiana bat, Plymouth redbelly turtle, yellow larkspur, Attwater's greater prairie-chicken, rusty patched bumblebee, Karner blue butterfly, American burying beetle, Western prairie fringed orchid, vernal pool fairy shrimp, and the spring pygmy sunfish. "The EPA confirmed what we have been warning about for years—these neonicotinoid insecticides pose an existential threat to many endangered species and seriously undermine biodiversity," Sylvia Wu, senior attorney at the Center for Food Safety (CFS), said in a statement. "Unfortunately, this dire news is what we have told EPA all along. EPA should be ashamed that it still has yet to ban these life-threatening pesticides." The EPA is well aware of the risks associated with the three neonicotinoids in question. One year ago, the agency released biological evaluations showing that the vast majority of endangered species are likely harmed by clothianidin (1,225 species, or 67% of the ESA list), imidacloprid (1,445, 79%), and thiamethoxam (1,396, 77%). Its new analysis focuses on which imperiled species and critical habitats are likely to be driven extinct by the trio of insecticides. "The Biden administration will have the stain of extinction on its hands if it doesn't muster the courage to stand up to Big Ag and ban these chemicals."
Saudi alfalfa sparks tension in Arizona’s Sonoran Desert - In an arid pocket of Arizona’s rural southwest, thirsty tufts of alfalfa are guzzling unlimited amounts of groundwater — only to become fodder for dairy cows some 8,000 miles east. This Sonoran Desert field of green, cultivated by a Saudi Arabian dairy giant, has become a flashpoint among residents, who resent the Middle Eastern company’s unbridled — and steeply discounted — usage of a dwindling regional resource. But because the Vicksburg, Ariz., property is just one of many farms in the neighborhood growing water-intensive grains, it is also turning the spotlight on legal loopholes in state groundwater laws that enable such use in the first place. “We don’t have any restrictions on our groundwater,” Holly Irwin, a La Paz County supervisor, told The Hill. “So it’s like a free for all.” La Paz and most of its neighbors do not contain ““Active Management Areas” (AMAs), zones that require groundwater regulation under state code. Just five parts of the state — including Phoenix and Tucson — have AMAs, while rural agricultural areas have no such protections. “We live in two very different Arizonas right now,” said Travis Lingenfelter, a supervisor for neighboring Mohave County. “If you’re in an AMA, you have water security, you have water certainty. If you’re outside of the AMA, it’s the Wild West.” This nonrestrictive environment has attracted not only local and domestic farmers, but also international companies that are unable to grow such water-intensive crops at home. “They’re coming here because Arizona almost invites it,” Lingenfelter said. “There’s no rules for groundwater.” Saudi Arabia instituted a near-ban on “cultivating green fodder” in November 2018, with the goal of easing pressure on water resources, according to a report from the Dutch government. To overcome inevitable shortages, the kingdom directed dairy farms to turn to imports. With discussions of future cutbacks already on the horizon, Saudi Arabian dairy giant Almarai secured 9,834 acres in Vicksburg in a $47.5 million deal — through its fully owned subsidiary Fondomonte Arizona LLC — in March 2014. Nearly two years later, Almarai announced a $31.8 million deal for 1,790 acresin Vicksburg in a $47.5 million deal — through its fully owned subsidiary Fondomonte Arizona LLC — in March 2014. Nearly two years later, Almarai announced a $31.8 million deal for 1,790 acres in Southern California. The transactions served to improve and secure Almarai’s “supply of the highest quality alfalfa hay” — a move that the company described in Saudi Exchange reports as “in line with the Saudi government direction toward conserving local resources.” “If they want to be able to guarantee their population food security, they know that they can’t really do that domestically,” said Natalie Koch, a geography professor at Syracuse University and author of a recent book about the link between Arizona and the Arabian Peninsula. The Arizonan land was particularly appealing to the kingdom “because you can get more bang for your buck when you buy that farm,” according to Koch. While Fondomonte received permits for eight water wells in 2016 and has long been growing alfalfa on the property, the firm only came into the public eye last June, when the Arizona Republic exposed its $25 per acre lease terms — or about one-sixth of the current market value. Irwin, the La Paz County supervisor, took immediate action at the time, sending a letter to then state Rep. Regina Cobb (R), asking that she submit a request to the attorney general’s office to investigate the State Land Department’s leases with Fondomonte. “They’re here for a reason — because they’ve depleted their own resources,” Irwin told The Hill. “And now they’re utilizing our resources and shipping that material overseas.”
6 Dead, Dozens Injured After Blinding Illinois Dust Storm Caused 90-Vehicle Pileup --Six people have died and more than 30 injured in a 90-vehicle pileup on Interstate 55 in Illinois that was blamed on a blinding dust storm. "The cause of the crash is due to excessive winds blowing dirt from farm fields across the highway leading to zero visibility," Illinois State Police Maj. Ryan Starrick told NBC News. Interstate 55 in southern Sangamon and northern Montgomery counties remains closed in both directions because of numerous crashes caused by a dust storm, which has greatly reduced visibility. (photo via @wics_abc20) pic.twitter.com/rYbWKndJa6 — IDOT_Illinois (@IDOT_Illinois) May 1, 2023Starrick said the stretch of the interstate would be closed until tomorrow because of the high number of crashed vehicles and casualties. Massive pileup on I-55 south of Springfield, Illinois has closed the interstate for nearly 30 miles. Blowing dust off freshly plowed fields led to very low visibility#ilwx: Nathan Cormier pic.twitter.com/im7QLE8BTp Nathan Cormier was driving on the interstate and described what he saw to The Weather Channel: "I saw the smoke cloud from a distance and that's when I came across everything else stopped in the road." “This is like 1930’s dust bowl.” A dust storm caused a major crash on I-55 south of Springfield, Illinois earlier Monday. Truck driver Nathan Cormier joined FOX Weather to recount his experience during the pile-up. #ILwx @IanOliverWX pic.twitter.com/nWDW353IH6— FOX Weather (@foxweather) May 1, 2023Starrick said dust storms similar to this one sometimes occur across Illinois during the planting season. A total of ten helicopters were requested, with four on the scene. First responders requested 37 ambulances.
Dust storm creates zero visibility, leading to massive vehicle pileup in Illinois - At least six people lost their lives, and 37 others were injured in a massive 70-vehicle pileup in central Illinois on Monday, May 1, 2023, caused by a dust storm that resulted in severely reduced visibility. The tragic incident occurred along Interstate 55 in Montgomery and Sangamon counties, south of the state capital, Springfield. According to Illinois State Police, the dust storm was caused by strong winds blowing dirt from freshly plowed fields across the highway. Injured individuals ranged in age from 2 to 80 years old, and their conditions varied from minor to life-threatening. Among the fatalities was Shirley Harper, 88, from Franklin, Wisconsin. Authorities are working to identify the remaining victims and inform their families. The pileup, which took place along a 3.2 km (2 miles) stretch of I-55, involved 72 vehicles, including two semi-trucks that caught fire. The interstate in southern Sangamon and northern Montgomery counties remained closed late Monday as officials investigated the incident and cleared the vehicles. The National Weather Service in Lincoln, Illinois, issued a “blowing dust warning,” alerting residents to severely limited visibility and advising people with respiratory issues to stay indoors until the storm passes. Winds across the region were gusting between 56 – 72 km/h (35 – 45 mph) during the event. Drivers said there was zero visibility on the road once they entered the cloud. This left many of them without time to hit the brakes, slamming into cars and trucks in their path.
Historic EF-3 tornado sweeps through Virginia Beach, leaving a trail of destruction, Virginia (3 videos) A powerful EF-3 tornado struck Virginia Beach, Virginia, on April 30, 2023, damaging 115 homes and destroying 12. This is the most powerful tornado ever to hit the city, officials said on May 1.A powerful EF-3 tornado ripped through the city of Virginia Beach on Sunday afternoon (LT), April 30, 2023, causing significant destruction. The twister hurled mounds of debris through the air, blew roofs off homes, downed trees, overturned cars, and capsized boats, forcing city officials to declare a local state of emergency.One person was trapped in a vehicle near Great Neck Middle School after a branch fell on their car, but no injuries have been reported. Many residents credited a cellphone warning system for helping them take shelter in time. One family escaped injuries by reacting to a weather alert that came less than a minute before the tornado hit. The National Weather Service (NWS) conducted a damage survey for the tornado in the Great Neck area of Virginia Beach. The tornado was rated as EF-3 with an estimated peak wind of 233 km/h (145 mph), a path length of 7.24 km (4.5 miles), and a maximum path width of 320 m (350 yards).The tornado formed over the eastern branch of Lynnhaven River in Virginia Beach and moved up River Road as an EF-1, passing by the Great Neck Recreation Center. It increased to an EF-2 intensity as it moved into the Chelsea neighborhood and continued onto Haversham Close with EF-3 intensity. In this area, several homes were shifted off their foundations, and roofs and upper walls were completely removed.The tornado then crossed Broad Bay and the eastern portion of Bay Island, clipping Windward Shore Drive as an EF-1. It moved over First Landing State Park and into Fort Story as an EF-1, snapping trees, damaging barracks, and damaging several other buildings before moving offshore.
West Virginia witnesses unprecedented snowfall in May, breaking century-old records - Unprecedented snowfall in West Virginia’s highlands over the past couple of days broke century-old records, with areas like Davis in Tucker County receiving over 38 cm (15 inches) of snow in just two days. For two consecutive days, West Virginia’s higher elevations experienced wintery conditions in May, with record-breaking snowfall amounts. According to Meteorologist Shannon Hefferan from the National Weather Service in Pittsburgh, an observer near Davis in Tucker County recorded 40.4 cm (15.9 inches) of snow in two days, an exceptional occurrence for May. While there were other snow reports, the majority were from slightly lower elevations with considerably less snowfall. Once off the ridgetops, the ground was wet, and temperatures were cooler, but conditions were closer to spring. Some snowfall totals for the two-day event in May were staggering and broke long-standing records. In Tucker County, Davis received 41.1 cm (16.2 inches) of snow, breaking a 100-year-old record. Snowshoe in Pocahontas County saw 33 cm (13 inches) of snow, surpassing the previous record set in 1975.
Rising Mississippi River tests Iowa, Illinois flood barriers (AP) — The rising Mississippi River tested flood defenses in southeast Iowa and northwest Illinois as it neared forecast crests in the area Monday, driven by a spring surge of water from melting snow. The peak water levels this spring will likely rank in the top 10 of all time in many places, but the National Weather Service said river levels will generally remain well below past records. That should help most towns along the river withstand the floodwaters, though officials will be checking their floodwalls and sandbag barriers closely in the next few days.Officials in towns along the river have said they are optimistic they will escape severe flooding this year, thanks to improved floodwalls and other prevention measures. Two minor levee breaks were reported over the weekend near a wildlife refuge south of Bellevue, Iowa, and in Camanche, Iowa, that covered a couple streets with water, but Wilson said no homes were damaged, and officials were able to build a new sandbag barrier in Camanche to bring that flooding under control. The river peaked in the Dubuque area Saturday at 23.03 feet (7 meters) — well below the 25.7 feet (7.8 meters) record — but officials there were grateful to have the floodwall the city built 50 years ago in place. Without that floodwall, the city would be facing significant problems, said Deron Muehring, a civil engineer for the city of Dubuque.“The floodwaters would be up to 6 feet deep in the Port of Dubuque and more than 7 feet deep in the south port,” Muehring told the Dubuque Telegraph-Herald. The river is expected to crest at around 21.6 feet (6.6 meters) on Monday in the Quad-Cities area, where several neighboring cities sit along the Iowa-Illinois line. Some roads and parks near the river are closed. The record at that spot is 22.7 feet (6.9 meters). Once the river crests in an area, it may take up to two weeks for the floodwaters to fully recede.
Toxic water floods an Okla. town. Will FERC hold a dam liable? -MIAMI, Okla. — When floodwaters encroach on Carol McCool’s home, she knows how to fend off snakes in her living room and remove the orange residue that stains her outside walls. The 76-year-old retired health accountant has seen her house flood five times in over 40 years. And like other residents in this small town, she believes the culprit is the nearby Pensacola Dam. “It’s just the most terrifying feeling, even after I’ve been through it five times. You can’t hardly breathe when you hear you’re going to flood again,” McCool said on a recent afternoon. For years, Miami officials, several tribes and residents have argued that the operator of the Pensacola Dam causes hundreds of properties to flood during rainstorms, in violation of its federal permit. Now, that permit is up for renewal from the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission — providing the community with an opportunity to demand that federal regulators set new restrictions and hold the operator liable for past floods. Miami residents say the very existence of their city is at stake. “The first time that myself, personally, was affected by flooding was Feb. 25, 1985. I’m now 53 years old and the mayor of this community, and we’re still fighting the same fight,” Miami Mayor Bless Parker said. “We’re on a mission to fix this.” The fight over the dam’s future highlights growing pressure on FERC to take a hard look at how large-scale energy projects affect nearby communities. That includes the nation’s network of aging hydropower dams, which emit little planet-warming pollution but can disrupt ecosystems, take up sizable amounts of land and change river flows. The Pensacola Dam is one of over 200 decades-old hydropower projects — a leading source of renewable energy nationwide — due for a new FERC permit this decade. Some see it as a bellwether for FERC’s efforts to address environmental justice, a priority for Acting Chair Willie Phillips. Roughly 24 percent of Miami residents live in poverty, and over 18 percent of the population is Native American, according to the Census Bureau.
Fla. and La. must borrow millions to pay insurance claims - The Gulf Coast insurance crisis has hit a new low as two state-chartered insurance associations are being forced to borrow hundreds of millions of dollars for the first time in three decades to pay the hurricane claims of insolvent insurers. Borrowing in Florida and Louisiana could reach a combined $1.35 billion and will be repaid largely by insurance policyholders across each state through premium increases or surcharges that will last for years. The emergency financial maneuver is the latest illustration of the collapsing property insurance market along the Gulf Coast following a series of destructive storms and a torrent of lawsuits. More than a dozen insurers have become insolvent, leading to soaring premiums and the cancellation of hundreds of thousands of homeowners’ policies. “We’re currently in the midst of an insurance crisis,” Louisiana Insurance Commissioner Jim Donelon said at a recent news briefing. The crisis is “largely as a result of hurricane activity in our state the last couple of years,” he said. The most recent financial blow was triggered by Hurricane Ian. Damages from the Category 4 storm plunged a large regional insurance company into failure, leading it to cancel tens of thousands of homeowners’ policies as hurricane season approaches and leaving millions of dollars in unpaid claims. The emergency borrowing in Florida and Louisiana has drawn attention to little-known nonprofit insurance associations that are created by states to pay claims of insolvent insurers. The associations are authorized to collect money by assessing insurance companies in their state a payment that is usually limited to 1 percent of the total premiums they collect. But in Florida and Louisiana, the unpaid claims became so costly that the assessments were insufficient and the associations had to borrow hundreds of millions of dollars at significant interest rates. “This is an extraordinary event for us,” said John Wells, executive director of the Louisiana association, known as the Louisiana Insurance Guaranty Association. “What everybody has to come to terms with is how much it takes to cover catastrophic losses.”
Widespread floods hit Emilia-Romagna, Italy - Heavy rainfall affecting parts of Italy’s Emilia-Romagna region on May 2 and 3, 2023, caused rivers to rapidly rise and overflow, resulting in severe floods that claimed at least two lives. Emilia-Romagna Governor Stefano Bonaccini said they are in the process of declaring a state of emergency. The rains intensified significantly on May 3, prompting authorities to declare a Red alert for the region. The country’s civil and rescue department reported more than 400 interventions due to flooding and landslides while ANSA reported over 250 people in Ravenna Province evacuated their homes overnight on May 3. Around 100 people were evacuated in the Faenza area, another 100 around Biancanigo di Castel Bolognese, and some 60 people in Conselice. An elderly man drowned in Castel Bolognese after being swept away by floodwaters while cycling on a closed road. Additionally, firefighters discovered a body in the debris of a collapsed house in Fontanelice due to extreme weather, and another person is reported missing. “We are particularly concerned about the (Bologna) metropolitan area,” said Bologna Mayor Matteo Lepore. “The amount of rain that has fallen is very high, we have to be very careful.” Numerous rivers swelled to hazardous levels, prompting rail operator FS to halt services on several routes – including those between Faenza and Forlì, Russi and Lugo, Russi and Granarolo, as well as Lavezzola and Mezzano. The rain also forced the closure of many roads and resulted in severe traffic congestion.
Destructive floods and landslides hit Rwanda, leaving over 100 fatalities - Heavy rainfall affecting Rwanda’s Western and Northern Provinces over the past couple of days led to severe floods and landslides, killing at least 115 people and causing widespread destruction. Heavy downpours in the hilly Western and Northern Provinces of Rwanda resulted in floods and landslides that claimed the lives of at least 115 people, as of 12:00 UTC on May 3, 2023. Most of the deaths were reported in the Western Province. The event comes after the Rwanda Meteorology Agency announced heavy rains in various parts of the country from May 1 to 10. The districts most affected by the severe weather were Rubavu, Ngororero, Nyabihu, Karongi, and Rutsiro in the Western Province, and Musanze in the Northern Province. Landslides and floods destroyed houses, washed away roads and properties, and uprooted plants in these districts. The Rwanda Police reported multiple roads are temporarily impassable, including the Mukamira-Ngororero and Rubavu-Rutsiro. In Nyabihu district, Shyira sector, Mpinga cell, Honore Ikuzwe spoke of the heartbreak caused by the loss of a family member in the flood triggered by the Mukungwa river. Ikuzwe recounted how a five-year-old child was swept away by the powerful current as the family tried to escape their collapsing home. Governor François Habitegeko of the Western Province expressed sympathy for the families who lost loved ones and stated that relief efforts were underway as the authorities continued to assess the consequences of the heavy rainfall. Collaboration with other agencies is in progress to ensure that assistance is available where needed. This tragic event comes after a similar occurrence in May 2020, when heavy rainfall led to more than 70 deaths and widespread damage in the country. Update, May 4: According to the Government of Rwanda, at least 127 people have died across the affected provinces, media report several injured people and some others still missing. In addition, some houses collapsed, and two main roads are impassable due to flooding and landslides.
Catastrophic flooding in South Kivu Province, DR Congo leaves over 200 people dead - (videos) Heavy rainfall affecting DR Congo’s South Kivu Province caused rivers to overflow on May 4, 2023, flooding the villages of Bushushu and Nyamukobi and leaving at least 227 people dead. Flash floods in the eastern Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) have resulted in at least 176 deaths, with heavy rain causing rivers to overflow and devastating buildings, according to South Kivu Governor Théo Ngwabidje Kasi. The governor added that others remain missing while local civil society member, Kasole Martin, reported that 227 bodies had been found by the end of May 5. The floods occurred in Kalehe territory, South Kivu province, inundating the villages of Bushushu and Nyamukubi. Survivors, forced to sleep out in the open, watched as Red Cross workers piled mud-covered corpses into a wooden shed. Schools and hospitals were destroyed in the floods. At the main hospital in Kalehe territory, Dr. Robert Masamba reported that injured survivors had been arriving since Thursday evening. “My team and I have not slept. We have received 56 patients, 80% of which have fractures,” he said. Heavy rain has also affected other areas of the country in recent days, including Kwango and Ituri provinces. Approximately 20 homes in Kenge, the capital of Kwango province, were washed away on May 2. An additional 40 houses were considered to be at risk, displacing dozens of families. Heavy rain and strong winds on May 3 destroyed over 1 000 shelters in a camp for internally displaced people in Savo, Djugu territory, Ituri Province. Radio Okapi reported that around 4 000 people have been left without shelter. Floods and landslides are not uncommon in South Kivu, which borders Rwanda, where more than 5 000 homes were destroyed over the past couple of days and at least 130 people lost their lives. The last incident of a similar scale in Congo took place in October 2014, when heavy rainfall destroyed more than 700 homes. The United Nations reported that over 130 people were missing at the time.
Giant seaweed bloom’s beaching begins, expected to worsen – Bits of the Great Atlantic Sargassum Belt – a 5,000-mile-wide seaweed bloom – have started to wash up in Florida, but we’re likely months away from peak activity, researchers said Sunday. While clouds over the Atlantic made it harder to monitor the seaweed bloom’s growth last month, satellite images showed currents and wind pushing the seaweed accumulation west, said the report from University of South Florida (USF) researchers. “Record Sargassum abundance” – an estimated 3 million tons – was seen in the Caribbean Sea, the report said. The southern coasts of the islands Hispaniola, Jamaica, and Puerto Rico started to see “notable buildups” toward the end of April. Some seaweed has also started to beach in Southeastern Florida, the university researchers said. Photos (below) show piles of the algae starting to accumulate on beaches in Fort Lauderdale, and videos posted by Fox Weather show it piling up in marinas and lagoons of the Florida Keys. The real problems with sargassum – which can contribute to a healthy ocean ecosystem out on the water – start when the seaweed starts tumbling onto beaches. As it washes ashore and rots, the algae smell like rotten eggs. It can cause breathing issues for people with sensitivities and asthma. “Sargassum is also known to often contain heavy metals that can be toxic to humans and animals,” the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said. Unfortunately, the worst of the beaching is yet to come. Satellite images show 5,000-mile seaweed belt creeping closer to US “Looking ahead, the total Sargassum quantity is expected to increase over the next few months, with impacts of beaching events in the [Caribbean Sea] and [Gulf of Mexico] worsening accordingly,” the report said. Researchers predict the “peak” of the 2023 season will come in June.
Fish with fangs keep washing up on Oregon beaches and biologists aren’t sure why (KOIN) — Serpent-like deep-sea fish with protruding fangs, bulging eyes and scaleless, slithery bodies are washing up along Oregon beaches — and biologists aren’t sure why. The Oregon Parks and Recreation Department announced Monday that numerous lancetfish have washed ashore in Oregon in recent weeks. Beachgoers from both the northern and southern coasts of the state have reported spotting the dead or dying fish in their local surf, too. “These deep-sea fish live in tropical and subtropical waters and can migrate as far north as the Bering Sea to feed,” the agency stated on social media. “No one is sure why they are washing ashore.” One lancetfish was found alive and helped back into the ocean, where it swam away, officials said. Beachgoers who locate a lancetfish along the beach are encouraged to take a photo and post the sighting to the Oregon State Parks and NOAA Fisheries West Coast Facebook pages. Lancetfish, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, can be found in any of the Earth’s non-polar oceans. Despite being deep-sea fish, they’re also not entirely rare sights, at least to fishermen in the Pacific who often catch lancetfish while looking to hook “bigeye tuna or swordfish,” the NOAA writes. Unlike tuna or swordfish, the two known lancetfish species are not prized as food due to their taste and “gelatinous flesh,” the NOAA writes. They are, however, often eaten by other lancetfish, as the two species are known to be “notorious cannibals,” according to the NOAA.
Ocean temperatures are surging to new highs. What it means for the planet. - A rapid surge in global ocean temperatures in recent months is raising the specter of a climate pattern shift that could accelerate planetary warming and supercharge trends that already are fueling extreme storms, deadly heat waves, and ecological crises on land and sea. On the heels of a new annual heat record set in 2022 — the latest in a string of record-setting years — average ocean surface temperatures around the globe have spiked since early March. Excluding polar regions, they are about two-tenths of a degree Celsius warmer than scientists have ever observed at this time of year via satellite data.What might seem like a small uptick in temperature can have profound effects.“Averaged over the planet, that’s a really big anomaly,” said Alex Sen Gupta, a research scientist at the Climate Change Research Center at the University of New South Wales in Australia.A transition to the climate pattern known as El Niño is probably behind the warming trend, scientists say. They won’t be sure of that until more time passes and the pattern takes shape. What’s already certain: As greenhouse gas emissions drive a steady surge in global temperatures, the planet will continue to set new climate and weather precedents, and oceans will grow ever hotter.“You’ve got this relentless rise of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere,” said Michael McPhaden, a senior scientist at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. “We just know unless that turns around in some way, we will continue to set records.”Historically, El Niño is known for accelerating global warming, with devastating effect. The pattern is marked by warmer-than-average surface waters in the Pacific Ocean that have domino effects on weather around the world. The last major El Niño drove the planet to record heat in 2016. The legacy of El Niño includes severe drought in places such as Indonesia and southern Africa, increased precipitation along the southern United States, and diminished Atlantic hurricane activity.Strong El Niños can also trigger ecological disasters and deadly weather extremes: drought and wildfires that cause rainforest loss, ocean warming that kills aquatic life and bleaches corals, rapid loss of polar ice, and a surge in transmission of diseases such as the plague.
An ominous heating event is unfolding in the oceans -To call what’s happening in the oceans right now an anomaly is a bit of an understatement. Since March, average sea surface temperatures have been climbing to record highs, as shown in the dark line in the graph below. Since this record-keeping began in the early 1980s—the other squiggly lines are previous years—the global average for the world’s ocean surfaces has oscillated seasonally between 19.7° and 21° Celsius (67.5° and 69.8° Fahrenheit). Toward the end of March, the average shot above the 21° mark and stayed there for a month. (The most recent reading, for April 26, was just a hair under 21°.) This temperature spike is not just unprecedented, but extreme.“It’s surprising to me that we’re this far off the trajectory,” says Robert Rohde, lead scientist at Berkeley Earth, a nonprofit that gathers climate data. “Usually when you have a particular warming event, we’re beating the previous record by a little bit. Right now we’re sitting well above the past records for this time of year, for a considerable period of time.”Rohde points out that temperatures this week were just under two-tenths of a degree warmer than the previous record. “Two-tenths doesn’t sound like a lot—but in ocean terms two-tenths is actually a lot because it doesn’t warm as quickly as the land,” he says. As you can see from the chart’s record of past years, March is normally when average sea surface temperatures start declining. That’s because the Southern Hemisphere has transitioned from summer to autumn—and that hemisphere has more ocean covering it than the Northern Hemisphere, which has more bulky land masses. As southern oceans cool, they bring down the average global sea surface temperature.But at the moment, temperature anomalies are widespread around the world’s oceans. (That near-real-time data comes from a network of satellites, buoys, and other ocean instruments.) “It’s above-average temperatures nearly everywhere,” says Rohde. “And there’s a significant heat wave in the North Pacific, which has been going on for many months.”Warming in the Atlantic may be contributing to the extreme heat that’s hitting Spain right now, and it shows the broader problem caused by high ocean temperatures: What happens in the sea doesn’t stay in the sea. The oceans have absorbed something like 90 percent of the excess heat humans have put into the atmosphere, but the oceans are also capable of handing that heat back to the atmosphere, which in turn heats the land. “Both the atmosphere and oceans are becoming warmer and warmer,” says Boyin Huang, a physical scientist and oceanographer at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. “If the atmosphere pushes the ocean, then the ocean will push back into the atmosphere.”Last year, researchers reported that climate change has made extreme heat events in the ocean the new normal. Thanks to historical data collected from ships all over the world, they determined the highest surface temperatures between the years 1870 to 1919—essentially setting a baseline for extremes. They found that in the 19th century, 2 percent of the ocean was hitting these extremes, but because of climate change it’s now 57 percent. In other words, extreme heat events in the ocean are now typical.
Global ocean temperatures spike to record levels as El Niño nears - Since mid-March, the world’s oceans have been hotter than at anytime since at least 1982, raising concerns among some climate experts about accelerated warming. Hotter oceans are hugely consequential for land areas, since they can contribute to more frequent and severe extreme weather and climate events, from deluges to heat waves.In addition, the temperature spike could be a sign that warming is speeding up in ways that climate models failed to anticipate. While the global average sea surface temperature record is noteworthy and far-reaching, it’s not a reason to lose sight of the bigger picture, climate scientists told Axios.The sea surface temperature spike, detected by a network of ships, buoys and satellites, is likely due to the combination of an emerging El Niño in the tropical Pacific, and another trend that scientists are far more concerned about. When a La Niña event gives way to an El Niño, as is happening now, large amounts of ocean heat that had been lurking beneath the ocean surface is drawn upwards, according to Michael Mann, a climate scientist at the University of Pennsylvania. The result, Mann told Axios via email, is “a sizable increase” in tropical Pacific and global ocean surface temperatures during the transition. "La Niña buries some ocean heat below the surface and El Niño brings that heat back to the surface,“ Mann said. El Niño events are defined by above average ocean temperatures in the equatorial tropical Pacific, along with myriad shifts in weather patterns. Such ocean and atmosphere cycles are naturally occurring, and help temporarily accelerate, or in the case of La Niña, slow the rate of climate change. This is part of the reason the long-term surface temperature record resembles a staircase, rather than a straight line. The steady and record-setting accumulation of ocean heat throughout the water column, not just at the surface, actually has climate scientists more concerned than the recent sea surface temperature spike. Ocean heat content, measured in a column of water from the surface down to 2,000 meters (6,561 feet) deep, hit a record high in 2022; this is altering vital ocean currents that distribute heat and nutrients around the world, a recent study found. The ocean surface temperature spike also reflects the fact that since the last major El Niño in 2016, global average surface temperatures on land and sea have increased. This means the 2023 El Niño is elevating global average temperatures from a higher starting point, making it easier to set records.
Scientists Are Alarmed as Sea Surface Temperatures Hit Uncharted Territory : ScienceAlert - Scientists are alarmed as sea surface temperatures stubbornly maintain record-breaking highs for more than a month, pushing the state of Earth's oceans into uncharted territory.Starting in mid-March, data from the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) leaps dramatically from earlier recordings, following lows of both Arctic and Antarctic sea ice this year.As a consequence, a large number of ocean heat waves are emerging around the globe, putting untold pressure on wildlife.The events are alarming, but sadly not unexpected for those working in climate sciences. "While it is comforting to see that the models work, it is terrifying, of course, to see climate change happening in real life," explains WHOI biogeochemist Jens Terhaar. "We are in it and it is just the beginning."The previous temperature record was in 2016, during an El Niño – a climate pattern that further warms the oceans. While there's growing evidence that we'll soon be entering just such an event, we're not there quite yet, making it likely that sea surface temperatures may rise even further over the next year.Heat gathering off the east coast of Chile tends to predict El Niños and that's exactly what we're witnessing at the moment. "If a new El Niño comes on top of it, we will probably have additional global warming of 0.2 to 0.25 °C," Potsdam Institute for Climate Research Earth systems scientist Josef Ludescher told the BBC.The extra heat from an El Niño event would nudge some areas of our planet past 1.5 °C of warming for the first time, oceanographer Moninya Roughan explains for The Conversation.Roughan believes what we're seeing is the easing of La Niña, which has brought brings cooler conditions that mask the extra heat in our planet's systems. However, some scientists are so worried and stressed by the possible implications they're reluctant to speak out. As retired mathematician Eliot Jacobson explains on Twitter, the certainty of the shifted ocean temperature signal is unsettling.Sigma probabilities are used to calculate the likelihood that the data in question is the result of something other than the hypothesis. We often report on this statistic in our physics and astrophysics articles, and 5 sigma is the threshold at which researchers are really confident that what they're seeing isn't merely the chaos of the Universe at work.To put it another way, five sigma means there's a 99.99972 percent likelihood that the numbers are a measure of a predicted phenomenon, even if it happens to be a highly anomalous one.Researchers fear that such a certain, anomalously large deviation from previous temperatures would indicate our oceans have reached the limits of their heat-absorbing capacity. This would be extremely bad news given our oceans have so far absorbed over 90 percent of the excess heat we've pumped into our climate systems.
Record sea surface heat sparks fears of warming surge -With sea surface temperatures swelling to new highs in recent weeks, scientists warn that humanity's carbon pollution has the potential to turn oceans into a global warming "time bomb". Oceans absorb most of the heat caused by planet-warming gases, causing heatwaves that harm aquatic life, altering weather patterns and disrupting crucial planet-regulating systems. While sea surface temperatures normally recede relatively quickly from annual peaks, this year they stayed high, with scientists warning that this underscores an underappreciated but grave impact of climate change. "The ocean, like a sponge, absorbs more than 90 percent of the increase in heat caused by human activities," said leading oceanologist Jean-Baptiste Sallee, of the French research agency CNRS. Year by year ocean warming is increasing at "an absolutely staggering rate", he told AFP. In early April, the average surface temperature of the oceans, excluding polar waters, reached 21.1 degrees Celsius, beating the annual record of 21C set in March 2016, according to data from the United States NOAA observatory that goes back to 1982. Although temperatures began to drop at the end of the month, they have remained above seasonal records for the past six weeks, with fears that the looming warming El Nino weather phenomenon could load even more heat into the climate system. The most immediate consequence of the surge in ocean temperatures is more marine heatwaves, which he said "act like underwater fires" with the potential to irreversibly degrade thousands of square kilometers of underwater forest—for example of kelp or corals. Higher sea surface temperatures disrupt the mixing of nutrients and oxygen that are key to supporting life and potentially alter the ocean's crucial role in absorbing carbon from the atmosphere. Graphic showing the rise in global sea surface temperatures since 1982. "As the water is warmer, there will be increased evaporation and a high risk of more intense cyclones, and perhaps consequences on ocean currents," said oceanologist Catherine Jeandel, of CNRS. Temperatures are also rising throughout the water column and all that heat does not disappear. Scientists expect that excess heat stored in the world's waters will eventually be returned to the Earth system and contribute to more global warming. "As we heat it up, the ocean becomes a bit like a time bomb,"
Barren Island volcano erupts, spewing ash to 4.6 km (15 000 feet) a.s.l. and disrupting air travel, India - (video) A new volcanic eruption started at Barren Island volcano, India at around 02:00 UTC on May 1, 2023. The eruption has sent volcanic ash to an altitude of 4.6 km (15 000 feet) above sea level, according to an advisory issued by the Darwin VAAC (Volcanic Ash Advisory Centre). The volcanic ash cloud was seen drifting NW at a speed of 9 km/h (5 mph), posing a potential threat to air travel in the region. The volcano is now under an Orange Aviation Color Code. This signifies that the volcano has displayed heightened unrest and is displaying signs of escalating volcanic activity. Barren Island volcano eruption on May 1, 2023. Credit: KARI/Geo-Kompsat-2A, RAMMB/CIRA, The Watchers Forecasted volcanic ash clouds for the next 6, 12, and 18 hours indicate that the ash cloud will continue to move northwestward, which could potentially impact air travel routes and schedules in the area. Authorities are closely monitoring the situation and will provide updates as needed. Travelers in the region are advised to stay informed of any developments and to follow instructions from local authorities and aviation officials.
Kanlaon volcano records highest sulfur dioxide emission this year, Philippines - A sharp increase in SO2 emissions was recorded at Kanlaon volcano last week, creating concerns over potential phreatic eruptions. On April 30, 2023, Kanlaon Volcano’s sulfur dioxide (SO2) emissions surged to an average of 1 099 tonnes/day, nearly ten times higher than the average of 124 tonnes/day recorded since March 2023. This marks the highest recorded value this year, PHIVOLCS said.1 Additionally, volcanic SO2 concentrations were detected for the first time in thermal springs on the northern slopes in April 2023. A total of 141 volcanic earthquakes occurred between April 1 and April 30, 2023, averaging five per day, with depths ranging from shallow to 10 km (6.2 miles) beneath the edifice’s northern and western portions. kanlaon volcano april 19 2023 bg Kanlaon volcano on April 19, 2023. Credit: Copernicus EU/Sentinel-2, EO Browser, The Watchers Continuous GPS and electronic tilt measurements have recorded short-term inflation of the lower and middle slopes since March 2023, indicating slow pressurization within the volcano. These factors suggest increased hydrothermal activity beneath the edifice, possibly driven by the degassing of deeper magma and raising the likelihood of phreatic or steam-driven explosions at the summit crater. At this time, Alert Level 1 remains in effect for the volcano. The public and local government units are strongly advised to remain vigilant and avoid entering the 4 km (2.49 miles) Permanent Danger Zone (PDZ) due to the increased risk of sudden and hazardous phreatic eruptions without warning. Civil aviation authorities should also caution pilots against flying near the volcano’s summit, as ejecta from any sudden phreatic eruption could pose a danger to aircraft.
Intense explosive activity, multiple pyroclastic flows trigger evacuations around Fuego volcano, Guatemala - An intense eruptive phase started at Guatemala’s Fuego volcano around 08:00 UTC on May 4, 2023, characterized by lava flows, constant incandescent activity, dense gas and ash emissions, and multiple high-speed pyroclastic flows of various intensities. Abundant ashfall was reported in villages and farms located up to 50 km (31 miles) W of the volcano. A couple of hours after the start of the eruption, authorities established a 7 km (4.3 miles) exclusion zone around the volcano and started evacuating more than 1 000 people living in the municipalities of San Pedro Yepocapa, Chimaltenango, Panimaché I and II villages, El Porvenir and Morelia. Civil Protection official Oscar Cossio told reporters that the number of people that need to be evacuated is likely to rise. The dense ash column produced by the eruption reached an altitude of 6.7 km (22 000 feet) above sea level by 21:20 UTC, according to the Washington VAAC. Ash cloud was extending approximately 200 km (120 miles) W from the summit. The eruption was accompanied by rumblings and moderate and strong shock waves on a constant basis, as well as the descent of moderate and strong pyroclastic flows that traveled between 5 and 7 km (3.1 – 4.3 miles) along the Ceniza, Las Lajas, Seca and Santa Teresa ravines. These pyroclastic flows caused constant and abundant ashfall in the communities located in the vicinity of the volcano.
Moderately strong M7.1 solar flare erupts from AR 3288 - (video) A moderately strong solar flare measuring M7.1 erupted at 13:09 UTC on May 1, 2023. The event started at 13:02 and ended at 13:13 UTC. There were no radio signatures that would suggest a coronal mass ejection (CME) was produced. Even if it was, the location of this region does not favor Earth-directed CMEs. The region is approaching the west limb and will start its farside rotation in a couple of days. It has a beta-gamma-delta magnetic configuration and is capable of producing strong to major eruptions.The Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) forecasts a 40% probability of M-class solar flares occurring within the next 48 hours, while the likelihood of X-class flares is estimated at 5% during the same time period. Solar activity was at moderate levels in 24 hours to 12:30 UTC today, with the strongest flare of the period being M2.4 at 20:28 UTC on April 30 from newly numbered Region 3293 (beta).
Moderately strong M7.2 solar flare erupts from Region 3293 - (video) A moderately strong M7.2 solar flare erupted from Active Region 3293 at 10:45 UTC on May 3, 2023. The event started at 10:36 and ended at 10:49 UTC. There were no radio signatures that would suggest a coronal mass ejection (CME) was produced. The region has a ‘beta-delta’ magnetic configuration and is rotating toward the center of the disk. Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CME) will be possible from this region in the days ahead. This is the 4th M-class solar flare since M7.1 at 13:09 UTC on May 1. It follows M4.2 at 09:27 UTC and M3.1 at 10:14 UTC today, both from region 3293. Solar activity is forecasted to remain at low levels between May 3 and 5, with the possibility of isolated M-class flares (R1-R2; Minor-Moderate) occurring. There is also a slight chance of an X-class flare (R3; Strong) during this period. These predictions take into account the combined flare probabilities from all visible active regions, with a particular focus on the more complex Regions 3288 and 3293, which contribute to the overall flare potential.1
Long-duration M3.9 solar flare erupts from Region 3296, CME produced - (video) A long-duration M3.9 solar flare erupted at 08:44 UTC on May 4, 2023. The event started at 08:05 and ended at 09:08 UTC. A Type II (estimated velocity 412 km/s) and IV radio emissions were associated with the flare event. Type IV emissions occur in association with major eruptions on the Sun and are typically associated with strong coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and solar radiation storms. Additionally, a 10cm Radio Burst (peak flux 400 sfu; duration 18 minutes) was also associated with the event, indicating that the electromagnetic burst associated with a solar flare at the 10cm wavelength was double or greater than the initial 10cm radio background. This can be indicative of significant radio noise in association with a solar flare. This noise is generally short-lived but can cause interference for sensitive receivers including radar, GPS, and satellite communications. goes-x-ray-flux-1-minute m3.9 may 4 2023 Region 3296 is rotating toward the center of the disk. Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CME) will be possible from it in the days ahead.
Occidental starts work on massive CO2 removal project - — On a bare 64-acre patch of the Permian Basin, miles from where the GPS signal drops off, leaders from Occidental Petroleum Corp. and its partners broke ground Friday on what could become the world’s largest direct air capture carbon sequestration facility. They’re calling it Stratos, and once the $1.1 billion project is scheduled to be completed in 2025, officials expect it to pull 500,000 metric tons of carbon dioxide out of the air each year, with the potential to eventually suck up to 1 million metric tons annually. As governments work to reduce emissions to combat climate change, energy companies are feeling pressure from investors and world leaders to come up with new technologies to either generate emissions-free power or slash the carbon dioxide output of existing fuel sources. For oil and gas majors in the United States, the efforts have coalesced around carbon capture and sequestration. The plant is among the first, and most ambitious, large-scale air capture projects undertaken by the oil and gas industry. Unlike traditional carbon capture, air capture pulls the greenhouse gas directly out of the atmosphere, rather than from the emissions of an industrial facility or power plant. Fossil fuel companies have pledged to invest billions of dollars in carbon capture and removal projects, thanks largely to turbo-charged tax credits for carbon sequestration included in last year’s Inflation Reduction Act. The legislation will now allow companies to collect $85 per metric ton of carbon dioxide captured and permanently sequestered, up from $45 per metric ton before. It’s even more lucrative for direct air capture projects, which now carry a tax credit of $180 per metric ton that’s permanently sequestered and $130 per metric ton when used for enhanced oil recovery. The amount of carbon dioxide Occidental pledged to capture and sequester is more than had been captured annually by every other existing carbon capture and sequestration project in the world, combined. Since the tax credits have increased, environmental groups and some engineers have raised concerns about carbon capture and carbon removal projects, as well as the oil and gas industry’s enthusiasm for jumping in. Adrian Shelley, Texas director of the consumer advocacy nonprofit Public Citizen, said carbon capture — including direct air capture — will be necessary to help abate climate change. But, he worried, oil and gas companies may be using such projects as a marketing tool and a way to prolong the use of their petroleum products and natural gas. Oil and gas companies including Occidental have already injected large amounts of carbon dioxide into the ground in efforts to squeeze more oil out of wells through a process known as enhanced oil recovery. Howard Herzog, a senior research engineer at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, said in some cases the emissions from the energy used to power direct air capture plants could be greater than the amount of carbon dioxide they sequester — a concern echoed by environmental groups including Public Citizen.“You have to account for life-cycle emissions and energy use, and subtract that from the amount you’re taking from the air,” Herzog said.
Coming EPA power plant rules will put carbon capture to the test, but better oversight is needed, critics say - New public and private funding and expected strong federal power plant emissions reduction standards have accelerated electricity sector investments in carbon capture, utilization and storage,’ or CCUS, projects but some worry it is good money thrown after bad. CCUS separates carbon from a fossil fuel-burning power plant’s exhaust for geologic storage or for use in industrial and other applications, according to the Department of Energy. Fossil fuel industry giants like Calpine and Chevron are looking to take advantage of new federal tax credits and grant funding for CCUS to manage potentially high costs in meeting power plant performance requirements, including new rules, expected from EPA soon, on reducing greenhouse gas emissions from existing power plants.Power companies have “ambitious plans” to add CCUS to power plants, estimated to cause 25% of U.S. CO2 emissions, and the power sector “needs CCUS in its toolkit,” said DOE Office of Fossil Energy and Carbon Management Assistant Secretary Brad Crabtree. Successful pilots and demonstrations “will add to investor confidence and lead to more deployment” to provide dispatchable clean energy for power system reliability after 2030,| he added.But environmentalists and others insist potentially cost-prohibitive CCUS infrastructure must still prove itself effective under rigorous and transparent federal oversight.“The vast majority of long-term U.S. power sector needs can be met without fossil generation and there are better options being deployed and in development,” Sierra Club Senior Advisor, Strategic Research and Development, Jeremy Fisher said. CCUS “may be needed, but without better guardrails, power sector abuses of federal funding could lead to increased emissions and stranded fossil assets,” he added.New DOE CCUS project grants, an increased $85 per metric ton, or tonne, federal 45Q tax credit, and the forthcoming EPA power plant carbon rules, will do for CCUS what similar policies did for renewables, advocates and opponents agreed. But controversial past CCUS performance and tax credit abuses must be avoided with transparent reporting requirements for CO2 capture, opponents added.Federal spending authorized by 2021’s Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act and the 45Q tax credit increase in 2022’s Inflation Reduction Act will make 2023 “a milestone year” for CCUS, moving it “from niche concept to mainstream investment,” and increase global CCUS capacity more than “sevenfold” by 2033, according to a March 2023 report by consultant Wood Mackenzie. Tax credit support is a key reason many companies are investing in CCUS, Bloomberg News reported in January. Energy companies, likeCompetitive Power Ventures and Calpine, frankly acknowledged policy support as a key driver in recent CCUS proposal announcements.The new public and private investment will allow power plants with CCUS to have a small positive or at least no more than a small negative financial return, said Clean Air Task Force Technology and Markets Director John Thompson. That may make CCUS a more cost-effective way to meet expected stricter pollution and emissions standards, he added.DOE’s recent $2.5 billion offering for CCUS pilot and demonstration projects may be “an important opportunity for CCUS developers,” said Pamela T. Wu, a partner at the law firm Morgan Lewis. “It will identify which technologies are reaching implementation readiness levels to complement the continuing rapid deployment of renewables,” she added.
Summit initiates eminent domain claims against South Dakota landowners Leroy Braun never thought he would be sued, because he didn't want a pipeline running through the land he owns. But as of Friday, Braun is one of many South Dakota landowners being taken to court by Summit Carbon Solutions, a CO2 carbon capture company. Summit has initiated more than 80 lawsuits against landowners in Beadle, Brown, Codington, Edmunds, Hand, Kingsbury, Lake, McPherson and Spink counties, court records show. The majority of the pending cases were brought on April 24. Joy Hohn, a landowner advocate, said she was alarmed to see so many landowners named in the court dockets. "Basically, it should send a message to South Dakota. And [landowners] that this is the type of company we are going to be dealing with," Hohn told Argus Leader. "Is this the type of company we want coming through South Dakota?" The Argus Leader obtained a copy of Summit's verified petition from one of the landowners being sued. The documents show that Summit holds itself out as a public carrier and is petitioning the courts to allow the company to exercise its "privilege" of eminent domain. In mid-April, Summit started circulating letters to landowners who had not signed an easement agreement with the company. The letters were a "final offer" for landowners to partner with the company and indicated intent to impose eminent domain if an agreement couldn't be reached. Brian Jorde, a lawyer with Nebraska-based Domina Law Group, told the Argus Leader on Monday he predicts this is only the first batch of filings. "It's significant in that it shows how unpopular this project is and how poor this company has handled itself in dealing with people. And it is a significant amount that will, no doubt, be growing, not shrinking," Jorde said. In Braun's case, he last let Summit's engineers into his home on April 24. He had already cooperated with them throughout the last year to perform land surveys, but he has major reservations about letting them build near his home or his feedlot. Yet, while Braun was hosting Summit Carbon Solution engineers at his Spink County farmstead, the carbon company's legal team was busy filing their lawsuit against the landowner. It was something the engineers failed to mention during the visit, since he didn't find out until the next day, when his attorney told him. "They said, 'We want to keep talking to you. We want to keep the lines of communication open.' They stressed that," Braun told the Argus Leader. "And then I go and find out on Tuesday morning that they're filing eminent domain on me. Where's the open dialogue on that?" Summit has yet to receive a permit to build its $4.5 billion Midwest Carbon Express pipeline in South Dakota. The pipeline is expected to run through 477.91 miles of land in the state. South Dakota Public Utilities Commission voted in January to push Summit's permit hearing to September. "We experienced the same type of intimidation and heavy handedness … under the Dakota Access pipeline. They did the same thing to us when Dakota Access went through. Before a permit was granted, months before the hearings even started, they sued us for eminent domain and condemnation as well," Hohn said. "We need to really do something within our legislature to get this to stop, because it's not fair to land owners."
New York takes big step toward renewable energy in ‘historic’ climate win -New York state has passed legislation that will scale up the state’s renewable energy production and signals a major step toward moving utilities out of private hands to become publicly owned. The bill, included in the state’s new budget, will require the state’s public power provider to generate all of its electricity from clean energy by 2030. It also allows the public utility to build and own renewables while phasing out fossil fuels. “It’s a historic win for the climate and for clean jobs,” said Lee Ziesche, organizer with Public Power New York, a coalition that has been fighting to pass the legislation for the past four years. “It’ll create a model of public power for the whole country, and it’s really showing that our energy should be a public good.” The Build Public Renewables Act (BPRA) will ensure that all state-owned properties that ordinarily receive power from the New York power authority (NYPA) are run on renewable energy by 2030. It will also require municipally owned properties – including many hospitals and schools, as well as public housing and public transit – to switch to renewable energy by 2035. NYPA provides low-cost electricity to more than 1,000 customers, ranging from local and state government buildings to electric cooperatives, businesses and non-profits. It also sells a portion of its power on the wholesale market, where utilities can purchase it. The legislation will require NYPA to offer low-to-moderate income customers a lower utility rate for renewable energy. The passage of this first-of-its-kind law comes after years of grassroots campaigning by climate and environmental organizers in New York state. NYPA is the largest state public utility in the country. The vast majority of the electricity generated by NYPA comes from hydropower: over 80%. This new legislation will require the state to phase out the six natural gas-fired plants that NYPA operates across New York City by 2030. (NYPA had previously agreed to shut down the plants by 2035.) NYPA built these “peaker plants” in 2001 to meet energy demands during peak times – such as the hottest days of the year. The plants, which emit nitrogen oxide and carbon dioxide, are located in the Queens and the Bronx boroughs of New York City and the Harlem neighborhood of Manhattan – the latter two of which have some of the highest asthma-related death rates in the country.
Bill banning Montana from analyzing climate impacts passes Legislature --The Montana Legislature has passed an 11th-hour bill prohibiting the state from analyzing the impacts of greenhouse gas emissions in its permitting decisions, clearing the bill to head to Gov. Greg Gianforte’s desk. House Bill 971 was a late arrival at the Capitol, introduced about six weeks after the transmittal deadline for non-budget bills. Lawmakers suspended their rules to allow for its introduction, citing an April 6decision by a Montana judge that halted construction of a NorthWestern Energy gas plant in Laurel. The measure has now passed both the House and Senate, largely along party lines.Proponents say HB 971 pushes back against judicial overreach and aligns with the procedural function of the Montana Environmental Policy Act, which guides how state agencies conduct environmental reviews for large projects. Opponents counter that ignoring the impacts of climate-warming greenhouse gas emissions will hamstring Montana’s ability to respond to climate change and unwisely tether the state’s energy industry to fossil fuel technology that’s on its way out.Several pieces of HB 971 were stricken from the measure in the lawmaking process, so it looks different than it did at its first committee hearing two weeks ago. The version that passed the Legislature April 28 prohibits the state from analyzing the effects of greenhouse gas emissions and “corresponding impacts to the climate” — both within and outside the state’s borders — in its permitting decisions. Other sections excluding mining projects and power plants from all review under MEPA were struck by a House amendment to the measure.As the bill was debated during an April 27 floor session, Senate Majority Leader Steve Fitzpatrick, R-Great Falls, described it as a response to “one of the more atrocious act of judicial activism” he’s seen, a reference to a Billings judge’s revocation of NorthWestern Energy’s gas plant permit on the grounds that the state prepared an inadequate environmental analysis. Other proponents of the measure, including Sen. Jason Small, R-Busby, said it will “set the record straight” regarding the proper role of MEPA.“MEPA is a procedural situation — it is not regulatory,” he told his colleagues in the Senate. “It was never intended to be regulatory.”Small said the bill will also short-circuit what would otherwise be “an endless loop of litigation” on large projects requiring a permit from a state agency — “just about anything that involves the land.”Sen. Pat Flowers, D-Belgrade, countered that HB 971 amounts to a “knee-jerk reaction” that weakens MEPA’s fundamental intent. He urged his colleagues to preserve MEPA’s spirit in his comments drawing from writings penned by MEPA’s Republican sponsor, George Darrow, in 1998: “an ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cure.” Sen. Denise Hayman, D-Bozeman said climate change impacts like wildfire, drought and flooding are disrupting the state’s agricultural and outdoor recreation economies. Considering such impacts “is essential to guaranteeing the public’s right to a clean and healthful environment, our right to know, and our right to participate,” she said.
Muni broker-dealers are on new Oklahoma fossil fuel boycotter list -- Oklahoma's state treasurer tagged three of the nation's largest investment banks as fossil fuel industry boycotters, making them ineligible to do business, including municipal bond underwriting, with the state and local governments. Wells Fargo, JP Morgan Chase, and Bank of America are on an initial list released Wednesday of 13 financial institutions determined to be boycotting the oil and gas industry. "The energy sector is crucial to Oklahoma's economy, providing jobs for our residents and helping drive economic growth," Treasurer Todd Russ said in a statement. "It is essential for us to work with financial institutions that are focused on free-market principles and not beholden to social goals that override their fiduciary duties." The firms are ineligible for government contracts because they are engaged in "boycotts" of fossil fuel companies or they failed to reply to a questionnaire sent by the treasurer earlier this year, according to the statement, which noted companies may be added to or removed from the list every 90 days as an internal analysis continues. Oklahoma joins other states that have targeted fossil fuel boycotts. A 2021 Texas law resulted in 11 financial companies being put on a list that included only one muni underwriter, UBS, which was subsequently dropped from deals. Utah Gov. Spencer Cox in March signed anexpanded boycott bill that has a contract prohibition. A just-enacted Florida anti-ESG law could possibly thin the ranks of underwriters in that state. JP Morgan Chase called the Oklahoma treasurer's action "baseless," pointing out that as the largest U.S. bank it is a top financer in the energy sector including traditional energy sources. "Between 2021 and 2022 we provided over $2 billion in financing and other services to 40 Oklahoma companies in the oil and gas space," a statement from the bank said. "Our business practices are not in conflict with this anti-free market decision, and we look forward to continuing to serve customers and communities in Oklahoma."
More green investment hasn't softened red resistance on climate - Even as billions of dollars in new clean energy investments surge into Republican leaning communities around the country, state and federal GOP officials are hardening their resistance to efforts to reduce the nation’s reliance on fossil fuels. That stark contrast has dashed a central hope and expectation among environmentalists: the belief that more economic opportunity in red places would mean less political opposition from Republicans to the transition toward a clean energy economy that scientists say is necessary to reduce the risk of catastrophic global climate change. The persistence of GOP opposition to that transition underscores the limits of economic incentives to overcome ideological inclinations – and points toward years of pitched partisan conflict that could make it virtually impossible for the US to set a consistent course on climate policy. This dynamic was encapsulated last week when virtually every House Republican voted, in the party’s debt ceiling plan, to repeal the clean energy incentives in the Inflation Reduction Act Democrats passed last year, even though those incentives have already triggered investments in 72 Republican-held districts, including over two dozen districts that have received massive investments of $1 billion or more in new plants or expansions of existing facilities. It’s also apparent in decisions by Republican state attorneys general from states that are among the top beneficiaries of new clean energy investments and jobs to launch a flurry of lawsuits and other legal proceedings against proposals from President Joe Biden’s administration to speed the transition toward a low-carbon economy. This opposition contravenes the traditional assumption that politicians almost always support the economic interests creating opportunity for their constituents. With growing boldness, Republicans and conservative activists are framing defense of fossil fuels and skepticism of clean energy alternatives as a form of culture war – with the transition to wind, solar and electric vehicles taking its place alongside transgender rights, “woke” indoctrination in the classroom or restrictions on gun ownership as an example of “coastal elites” trying to erase traditional American values. In opposing measures to promote clean energy even in places benefiting from new investments to produce it, “Republicans believe – and the next election will help us see whether this is a good strategy or not – that culture war is going to be better to help them win than talking about jobs and the economy,” said Anthony Leiserowitz, director of the Program on Climate Change Communication at Yale University. In all these ways, climate change has become another fissure along the central fault line in modern American politics. Like attitudes toward demographic and cultural change, perspectives on shifting the nation’s energy mix from its historic reliance on fossil fuels toward low-carbon alternatives now pit the Democratic “coalition of transformation” that largely embraces the way America is changing on every front against the Republican “coalition of restoration” that resists it.
A misreading of the Bible fuels apathy about climate change - Christian theology and global politics can make strange bedfellows. Consider the intimate relationship between fundamentalist expectations of Jesus’ return and market-driven disregard for the environment. The affair became public back in 1981, when Ronald Reagan’s newly minted Interior secretary, James Watt — once known for suing the department he went on to lead — was testifying before a House committee. Watt was asked whether he was committed to “save some of our resources … for our children?”“That is the delicate balance the secretary of the Interior must have,” the secretary affirmed. But then he continued: “I do not know how many future generations we can count on before the Lord returns. Whatever it is, we have to manage with a skill to leave the resources for future generations.” Was Watt suggesting that his faith in the Second Coming should temper the government’s conservation efforts? Why would anyone who seriously imagined that only a few more generations would enjoy the planet skimp on consuming its resources? The Watt hearing brought public scrutiny to the relationship between religion and environmental policy, but it was not the end of the affair. American evangelicals are still disproportionately uninterested in climate change and other environmental issues. Their apathy is driven not only by their well-documented distrust of science but also by a specific eschatological belief that Jesus is coming soon to bring history to a rather climactic end. Most evangelicals believe this is simply what the Bible teaches, especially in the Book of Revelation. And it’s not just evangelicals. Popular evangelical culture — including Hal Lindsey’s bestselling 1970 book “The Late Great Planet Earth” and, more recently, Tim LaHaye and Jerry B. Jenkins’ blockbuster “Left Behind” novels (with movie spinoffs) — has led many more Americans to believe the Bible predicts our imminent end. Although evangelicals emphatically believe these predictions, and non-evangelicals decidedly do not, it’s broadly assumed that this is indeed what the Bible predicts. In fact, Scripture says no such thing, either in Revelation or in any other book. This is widely known among historical scholars of the Bible but scarcely at all outside our ranks.
Companies Flock to Biden’s Climate Tax Breaks, Driving Up Law’s Cost - President Biden’s signature climate law appears to be encouraging more investment in American manufacturing than initially expected, powering what’s expected to be a surge in new factory jobs and domestic clean energy technologies, according to independent forecasters. If the boom in new battery factories, wind and solar farms, electric vehicle plants and other investments is sustained, the law could prove even more effective than administration officials had hoped at reducing the fossil fuel emissions that are dangerously heating the planet. But all that new economic activity centered around green technology is also driving up costs for taxpayers, who are subsidizing the investments.When Democrats passed the Inflation Reduction Act last August, the Congressional Budget Office estimated that the law’s climate and clean energy tax credits would cost roughly $391 billion between 2022 and 2031. But the budget office’s updated score, based on estimates from the Joint Committee on Taxation, found that the clean energy tax breaks would cost at least $180 billion more than originally forecast over that time period.Other experts and investment banks have estimated that the law’s energy provisions could end up costing as much as $1.2 trillion over the next decade.In just eight months since Mr. Biden signed the bill, companieshave announced plans to invest at least $150 billion in clean energy projects, including at least 46 new or expanded large-scale factories making everything from wind turbine towers to electric vehicle batteries.Some companies planned their projects before the climate law passed and would have built them regardless. But others have cited the law as a catalyst, such as Hanwha Qcells, a South Korean solar company, which in January announced it would build a $2.5 billion manufacturing complex in Georgia.
Industry pushes back against Biden rules on climate disclosure - The Biden administration is struggling over rules that would force U.S. corporations to disclose more information about their climate risks and greenhouse gas emissions, from pizza deliveries and steel manufacturing to financial services and making cement. If approved, the rules would affect government contractors, insurance firms and other companies and would enable the administration to better track and cap the carbon dioxide and methane emissions that contribute to climate change. It could also transform the purchasing practices of the federal government, which spends about $650 billion each year on goods and services, more than any other entity. “Number one, the entire sustainability agenda is built on the premise that we have to lead by example, right?” Brenda Mallory, chair of the Council on Environmental Quality at the White House, said at a recent Washington Post Live event. “We are the largest employer in the nation. We have the most real estate in the nation, and so these all give us tools that are really important for us to take advantage of.”Yet as the administration leans into the climate disclosure campaign — led by the Securities and Exchange Commission, the General Services Administration and the Treasury Department’s Federal Insurance Office — it is facing broad opposition from companies, as well as House Republicans and industry-funded groups that oppose Biden’s climate agenda.Supporters of the new rules fear that the agencies, facing the likelihood of lawsuits, might end up watering down or delaying their disclosure actions. Robert J. Jackson Jr., a former SEC commissioner and now a law professor at New York University, said Thursday that the SEC might wait months, delaying from April until the fall. Many companies say the disclosure rules are too expensive, complicated and far-reaching. At the same time, many climate activists fear that federal agencies, swamped by comments, are overreacting to corporate pressure and may water down or delay disclosure requirements, some of which are already behind schedule.
Senate sends bipartisan rebuke of solar tariff policy to Biden's desk - The Senate voted 56 to 41 on Wednesday to rescind the Biden administration’s two-year pause on tariffs for imports of solar equipment from four Southeast Asian countries — a rare bipartisan rebuke of the president’s energy and trade policies. The vote sends the resolution to President Joe Biden’s desk, where it faces a certain veto. But its passage underscores the tricky politics that vulnerable Democratic lawmakers must navigate between reaching U.S. clean energy targets and taking a hard line on Chinese influence. A Republican Senate sponsor of the resolution also accused lawmakers who side with the administration of supporting forced labor in China. Nine Democrats voted in support of the resolution, which passed the House last week with bipartisan support. One Republican senator voted against the measure. The resolution would use the Congressional Review Act to rescind Biden’smoratorium on new tariffs for solar cells and modules from Malaysia, Thailand, Cambodia and Vietnam. The rule was issued as the Commerce Department investigates whether companies are circumventing existing U.S. tariffs on China by funneling products through those four countries.Commerce issued preliminary findings in December that said Chinese companies were indeed circumventing the tariffs, and its final determination is due later this year. But given the two-year pause, no new tariffs resulting from the probe can be levied until mid-2024.The resolution resurfaced long-running tensions on the Commerce probe. Solar industry officials who oppose the resolution warn it carries a threat of retroactive duties that will cost jobs, shut down planned solar projects and undercut the Biden administration’s climate goals.
Are new solar tariffs coming soon? Here’s what you need to know -- The fight to impose new tariffs on the U.S.’ main source of solar panels is moving forward in Congress — but it’s more likely to produce fodder for campaign ads than policy change.On Friday, the U.S. House of Representatives voted 221–202 to overturn President Biden’s two-year pause on new tariffs for solar panels produced in four Southeast Asian countries. The effort is motivated by a combination of tough-on-China bravado and made-in-America protectionism, with the stated goal being to bolster U.S. solar manufacturing.But it wouldn’t be good for U.S. solar deployment. Solar farms are expected to account fornearly half of new U.S. power plant capacity added this year, and those installations rely heavily on panels manufactured by the Asian countries that dominate the global solar supply chain. In 2021, about 80 percent of new solar panels used in U.S. installations were imported, and of those imports, about 80 percent came from Cambodia, Malaysia, Thailand and Vietnam. New tariffs would decimate the astounding growth of this clean energy sector, and in the process potentially derail the decarbonization of the world’s second-largest emitter of CO2. Last Friday’s vote represents the first — and lowest — hurdle in the Republican-led race to reinstate the solar tariffs, but the effort is unlikely to clear the final bar needed to repeal Biden’s moratorium.Canary Media has covered the back and forth over new solar tariffs extensively since it began last spring. We’ve pulled together five questions and answers to help you understand what’s happening with solar tariffs now and what it all means.
MidAmerican can move ahead with its proposed $3.9 billion WindPrime request. But will it? - State regulators approved MidAmerican Energy's proposal to spend $3.9 billion to build more capacity to generate wind and solar energy, but added conditions that environmentalists say better protect consumers and require more analysis on the utility's clean-energy transition. MidAmerican, the power company owned by Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway, says it can build nearly 2,100 megawatts of wind and solar energy generation at "no net cost to consumers." That's due in part to last year's Inflation Reduction Act, which earmarked $369 billion in tax credits and other support for renewable energy generation that cuts greenhouse gas emissions. The Iowa Utilities Board approved MidAmerican's plan on Thursday but tacked on new requirements, giving the state's largest utility 20 days to decide whether to accept the plan. MidAmerican's Geoff Greenwood said in an email Monday that the company was evaluating the order to determine its next steps for the project, called WindPrime. The order excluded MidAmerican's initial plan to also explore emerging technologies such as carbon capture and small modular nuclear reactors. They were dropped in an earlier settlement proposal. Attorneys for the Iowa Environmental Council, the Environmental Law & Policy Center and the Sierra Club said MidAmerican could ask the utilities board to reconsider its order. The order, which allows MidAmerican to build 2,042 megawatts of wind and 50 megawatts of solar generation, requires the company to annually verify that the project comes at no added cost to consumers. The utilities board reduced the financial return to MidAmerican from 11.25% to 9.5%. Even with a healthy financial return, the company anticipates customers would bear no costs with the project, given federal tax credits provided through the Inflation Reduction Act and clean energy sales, said Michael Schmidt, an Iowa Environmental Council attorney. In fact, MidAmerican would share potential profits with customers, under the order. MidAmerican also would be required within 24 months to assess its plan to reach zero carbon emissions, under a resource evaluation study. The analysis could drive MidAmerican to look at adding more solar and battery storage in the future and consider retiring its coal plants earlier, Josh Mandelbaum, an Environmental Law & Policy attorney, said Monday in a call with reporters. The groups have pushed MidAmerican to retire at least three coal-fired power plants and replace them with a mixture of wind, solar and battery storage, a move that would save consumers money and reduce Iowa's greenhouse gas emissions, the groups say. MidAmerican has said its "Destination Net Zero" plan includes retiring its five coal-fired power plants by 2050. Doing it sooner would reduce the company's ability to reliably provide energy, it said. Pending Senate bill would require 30% transfer capacity between regions: Hickenlooper aide - Grid operators and transmission planning regions would be required to be able to transfer at least 30% of their peak load to neighboring regions under a bill Sen. John Hickenlooper, D-Colo., is preparing to introduce, according to an aide. The pending legislation comes after winter storms Uri and Elliott led to rolling blackouts for millions of people and at least 250 deaths in Texas. Limits on the transmission system between regions prevented available power from going to areas where it was needed. The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission has been considering requiring minimum amounts of transfer capability between regions, partly to bolster grid reliability. FERC Acting Chairman Willie Phillips supports the concept. Hickenlooper’s Big Wires Act would require FERC to issue a rule establishing a minimum transfer capacity requirement, Daniel Palken, senior policy advisor to the senator, said Thursday during a meeting hosted by WIRES, a trade group for utilities, grid operators and companies in the transmission sector. Under the draft bill, after FERC issues a final rule, grid operators would have two years to negotiate bilateral agreements laying out who would build interregional transmission lines, who would pay for them and the timeline for their construction, Palken said. Those plans would be filed with FERC for approval. If they aren’t filed, FERC would have the authority to establish the interregional plans, according to Palken. Options for meeting the requirement could include new transmission lines, upgrading existing ones and reducing energy use within a region, he said. Besides improving grid reliability, more transfer capacity between regions would allow lower-priced electricity to flow across the grid, reducing costs, according to Palken. He cited recent reports from the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory looking at potential savings from new power lines between regions. The value of a hypothetical 1,000-MW line ranged from $29 million to $505 million last year, depending on location, according to a report issued in February. The lines with the highest value linked the Western and Eastern interconnections.
Manchin's 'playing with fire' — and some Democrats are tired of the drama - Sen. Joe Manchin is losing patience with his fellow Democrats over their signature climate law — and the feeling is mutual.The West Virginia Democrat has spent weeks escalating his attacks on President Joe Biden’s implementation of the Inflation Reduction Act, the sweeping bill that Manchin helped write in a deal that stunned Washington last summer. Last week, he threatened to join Republicans in voting to repeal the law, as the House GOP is demanding in its legislation for raising the nation’s debt limit.Manchin’s comment caught his caucus colleagues off guard, even if such a repeal would be a long shot in Congress. It came just as Biden was launching a reelection campaign that rests heavily on that legislation’s climate and health care provisions.“That surprises me that he wants to repeal it. I think it’s one of his greatest accomplishments,” said Sen. Angus King (I-Maine), a close colleague of Manchin’s on the Energy Committee, in an interview.The IRA is far less of a political bright spot for Manchin, whose potential reelection hopes are clouded by growing disapproval ratings in his home state, partly driven by his support for the law. Manchin has yet to announce whether he’s running, but a formidable challenger entered the West Virginia Senate race last week — GOP Gov. Jim Justice.Manchin’s fellow Democrats understand that his reelection could determine whether they retain their slim 51-seat Senate majority in 2024. But they are also growing weary of his attacks against their marquee climate law — even if they’ve come to expect it and know there’s little they can do to change his mind. And his votes against Democratic policies and Biden nominees have already complicated his party’s agenda in the 51-49 Senate.Some Democrats fear that Manchin’s criticisms will do real damage by confusing the public about one of the law’s most debated-provisions: its$7,500 tax credits for electric vehicles. He has accused the Treasury Department of violating the law by flouting strict provisions he wrote designed to force electric vehicles to be made in the U.S. with American-made parts.“When you’re Joe Manchin it never hurts to be seen butting heads with the administration, but I think this is genuine umbrage over the fact Congressional intent seems pretty clear, even if the statutory construction left room for Treasury to maneuver,” said Liam Donovan, a lobbyist with the firm Bracewell who previously worked for the National Republican Senatorial Committee. “And given that he would not have been on board for the bill at all had this been the understanding, it reads as a personal betrayal.”
Hydrogen and the EPA power plant rule: 3 issues to watch - Upcoming EPA regulations are expected to allow power plants to execute a historic reduction in their emissions partly by burning hydrogen. But many questions remain about whether hydrogen will be a viable climate tool: Few power plants today are using it at scale, and some industry observers say that unless it is produced through a “clean” process before it reaches a power plant, it may not make a significant dent in U.S. emissions overall. Currently, most hydrogen is produced with natural gas. While that “gray” hydrogen may emit little or no carbon at a power plant when burned, giving it an advantage over coal and gas, its production is emissions-intensive. Advertisement It also may be years until lower-carbon versions of hydrogen become available at scale for use in power plants across the United States. Yet the idea of burning hydrogen at power plants has many backers — including some major utilities — and Congress has approved subsidies for new and potentially cleaner ways of making the fuel. “Green” hydrogen, made from water and renewable electricity, and “blue” hydrogen, derived from natural gas and paired with carbon capture, are expected to be eligible for tax credits from the Inflation Reduction Act. Some energy modelers and environmentalists argue that many supposedly clean production techniques for hydrogen could actually raise emissions, unless the federal government sets strict rules, however. Others say that burning hydrogen may not be the most efficient way for power plants to decarbonize, even if the fuel is produced through a low-carbon process. “I’m really skeptical [hydrogen in power plants] will be a major solution,” said Rachel Fakhry, senior advocate for the Natural Resources Defense Council’s climate and clean energy program. She said NRDC doesn’t oppose the fuel’s use to make electricity, adding it could serve as a form of long-duration energy storage for power plants. But “I think the facts just don’t support the notion” that hydrogen could serve as a main way for gas plants to zero out their emissions, she said. Reducing plants’ emissions by directly capturing them would be more efficient than mixing hydrogen into natural gas, she said. Building out renewables paired with battery storage will be the most important way of all of cleaning up the power sector, she added. Promoting low-carbon production of hydrogen has been a focus of the Biden administration. Along with creating the first tax credit for low-carbon hydrogen, Congress allocated $8 billion in infrastructure law funds for Energy Department-backed demonstrations of the fuel’s production, storage, transport and consumption. The first wave of low-carbon hydrogen production in the United States could grow out of those demonstrations. The Department of Energy has received applications from coalitions in nearly every state, and said it expects to make the first awards to hydrogen hubs in the fall. At least one of the hubs must demonstrate the fuel’s use in power plants, under the 2021 infrastructure law. In the meantime, analysts are waiting to see how EPA will address hydrogen’s carbon footprint.
Crypto foes gird to stop mines from 'spreading like cancer' - In the wake of a national surge in crypto mining, local activists are searching for ways to fight the energy-intensive industry’s rapid growth — and calling on Congress for backup. Crypto mines — banks of computers that run to obtain digital currency — can operate as much as 24 hours per day, seven days a week and, depending on their energy source, can spew significant levels of planet-warming gases. After China cracked down on crypto mining within its borders a year and a half ago, the industry has become a growing presence in communities with cheap electricity from hydropower — and also from more carbon-intensive sources like natural gas and coal. “These miners are moving to the United States and spreading like cancer across the country,” said Yvonne Taylor, one of the founders of the National Coalition Against Cryptomining, a new advocacy group uniting activists from Georgia to Washington state.She added: “We had to do something on a national level.”In 2020, before China’s crackdown on crypto mining, the United States accounted for just 3.5 percent of global mining of bitcoin, the leading type of cryptocurrency.By 2022, that figure had jumped to 38 percent, and the United States is now home to a third of global crypto mining assets, according to a report from the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP). The crypto boom has led to a tripling of energy usage since 2021 — matching the amount of power needed to turn on the lights in every home in the United States. Crypto mining uses so much energy because banks of small computers are competing to solve complex math puzzles to win digital currency. The more computers running, the better the odds of making a profit. For climate activists who find themselves living near a crypto mine, the lack of U.S. law governing the industry is a critical challenge. Communities cannot get a clear picture of where the facilities are located, and estimates of the sites’ cumulative climate impact is uncertain. In some places, crypto mining opponents warn that the facilities are bringing fossil fuel power plants back online or delaying their retirement. In other cases, critics say the facilities are draining so much power from renewable sources like hydroelectric dams that residents are not able to take advantage of those sources and are instead getting energy derived from fossil fuels. The disruptions reach beyond climate impacts: People living near the facilities say the mines also require noisy fans and massive amounts of water to keep their servers cool.
South Bend Ethanol acquired; $230M expansion planned – - The North American subsidiary of Germany-based Verbio AG is making its move into Indiana. Verbio North America Holdings Corp. announced Monday it has acquired South Bend Ethanol LLC, the state’s first large scale ethanol production plant, though financial terms of the deal are not being disclosed. However, Verbio said it plans to invest $230 million over the next three years to expand and develop the plant into a modern refinery that will include the production of renewable natural gas. The company integrating the existing ethanol production at the plant with the RNG production proecess will create higher efficiencies and improved sustainability. “We believe this transaction provides an excellent path for Verbio to further strengthen its North America business and growth strategy,” Stefan Schreiber, executive board member for North America at Verbio AG, said in a news release. “The site offers a competitive location as well as existing infrastructure and meets our requirements for access to the natural gas grid, electricity, feedstock sources and water supply.” Once fully operational, the plant will be able to produce 85 million gallons of corn ethanol and 2.8 billion cubic feet of RNG annually, Verbio said. Construction on the expansion is expected to begin in the next several months, with commercial RNG production slated to begin in 2026. Verbio said it will retain all 61 employees at the plant and plans to add eight more by the end of 2025. Additionally, Verbio plans to continue procuring the 28 million bushels of corn it needs each year for ethanol production from local sources. Part of the expansion will include the installation of new equipment, including anaerobic digestion tanks used in the production of RNG. Verbio said it will use the stillage resulting from the ethanol production and use that as feedstock for RNG. “We see a continued strong demand for renewable energy solutions, especially in North American industrial process industries,” Verbio AG CEO Claus Sauter said. “This opens up promising economic perspectives for us and supports Verbio`s growth and internationalization strategy.” The South Bend facility will be Verbio’s second U.S.-based plant. The company began operations in 2021 at its plant in Nevada, Iowa and plans to begin ethanol production later this year.
UW Partnership Converts Manure to Jet Fuel in Fighting Climate Change -The University of Wisconsin, Oshkosh, and Agra Energy are operating Wisconsin's first commercial facility to turn manure into fuel for trucks and jets. The project started six years ago when Agra Energy searched for waste streams to turn into fuel and that went into existing infrastructure such as tanks, pumps and engines. The California based company refines biogases produced by landfills, food waste or manure from Wisconsin farms into fuel, said Tony Long, Agra Energy's president and chief technology officer. Its technology converts hydrogen and carbon monoxide into a chain of hydrocarbon molecules. Those are then separated to make diesel and jet fuel - something called the fisher trope process. It is a process used on a large scale by companies like Shell and Arco in countries such as Qatar and Malaysia to ship natural gas, but not by using waste streams. "What they do is convert liquids and then they are much easier to ship," Long said. "It's not that it doesn't exist, but applying it specifically to waste streams and that small scale is what was unique about what Agra's bringing in the research at University of Wisconsin, Oshkosh." After a successful pilot facility was built and operated at the university in 2020, the new facility will be running in early 2023. The process produces diesel and jet fuel but not gasoline. Gasoline needs aromatics which the particular technology of this process does not create, Long said. Biogas also helps mitigate emissions that would have otherwise escaped from landfills or manure lagoons and contribute to the greenhouse gases that produce climate change. Using the methane these sources produce dramatically reduces its climate impact by converting it into carbon dioxide, according to the World Wildlife Fund. The facility is in New Franken, right outside of Green Bay. It was strategically placed in Wisconsin because of that state's "untapped biodigester market," said Kenneth Johnson, the biodigester research and operations manager at the University of Wisconsin, Oshkosh. A lot of the biodigesters in Wisconsin just process the manure, Johnson said. Sometimes, farmers will even just flare, or burn, the gas and not use it at all. The University of Wisconsin, Oshkosh, has one of the first research operated digesters in the nation. By having gas-to-liquid systems, many other groups that want to do similar work with biodigesters and renewable biofuel will go to Oshkosh to test their products and ideas, he said.
Remember the Lithium Shortage & Huge Price Spike? In the Four Months since, Lithium Collapsed 70% amid Talk of Lithium Glut - The spot price of lithium carbonate 99.5% battery grade, trading in Shanghai and serving as a key benchmark, spiked by 590% in 16 months, and then collapsed spectacularly in four months. Over the last couple of days, it seems to have found a bottom. Like so many commodities, it didn’t collapse all the way back to the starting point of the price spike – at least not yet.The price spike started in July 2021. At the time, it had been trading at 87,000 CNY per tonne. On November 11, 2022, it hit 600,000 CNY, a ridiculous gain of 590%. Then it lost its grip, speculation blew up, and the price plunged 72% in nearly a straight line, before ticking up for the first time.A couple of days ago, the plunge stopped to take a breath at 165,000 CNY. And it ticked up from there. On Friday it closed at 177,500 CNY. While this is down 70% from the peak, it is stilldouble the price of July 2021 (87,000 CNY). Commodities prices are not driven day-to-day by underlying long-term fundamentals but by huge speculation that can lead to absurd results, such as futures contracts for crude oil WTI plunging to minus $37.63 a barrel on April 20, 2020 before spiking back up, or lumber futures that spiked to ridiculous highs and then collapsed, or natural gas futures that spiked to ridiculous highs and then collapsed. Same with lithium. But fundamentals are constantly cited to support, promote, and prolong a price spike like this. This was played out with immense hoopla in the media. There was going to be a global lithium shortage for years to come because EV production and sales were skyrocketing, and battery cell makers would run out of lithium and wouldn’t be able to supply battery cells to the EV makers.And true, EV production and sales have skyrocketed, and continue to, creating rapidly growing demand for lithium, asTesla’s big price cuts are aimed at grabbing market share from vehicles with internal-combustion engines. But what hasn’t happened is that the world ran out of lithium.Commodities are in a dynamic world, full of actions and reactions, where high prices beget investment in production, which begets increased supply, which cures high prices.All kinds of new lithium mines are being planned and are coming on line, and a lot of it has been in the works for a long time. And suddenly there’s talk of how a global lithium shortage turned into a global lithium glut over the course of four miraculous months. But it also shows that price cuts by EV makers – driven relentlessly by Tesla which has the fattest profit margins of any major automaker and can afford to cut prices – are getting less onerous for them as the lower lithium prices filter into lower costs of battery cells.
California Could Phase Out Diesel Locomotives - The California Air Resources Board is poised to take action this week on a proposed regulation that seeks to reduce locomotive emissions in the state by phasing out diesel locomotives and requiring zero-emissions locomotives within a certain time frame. “In the absence of federal action to address harmful emissions from locomotives, CARB is developing regulatory concepts to reduce criteria pollutants, toxic air contaminants, and greenhouse gas emissions for locomotives in-use,” CARB says on its website. “These concepts are intended to be implemented statewide, and provide an opportunity for the railroads to better address regional pollution and long-standing environmental justice concerns with communities near railyards. The goal of the regulatory concepts is to accelerate immediate adoption of advanced cleaner technologies for all locomotive operations.”The proposed regulation, which would apply to both passenger and freight rail operations that involve travel to seaports, rail yards and other locations, consists of the following:
- In 2024:
- Locomotive operators would need to fund a trust account based on how much emissions their locomotives produce and that account would help fund the purchase of cleaner locomotives or the upgrade of existing locomotives.
- Locomotives with automatic shutoff devices would not be permitted to idle for longer than 30 minutes, except for certain circumstances such as maintaining air brake pressure or providing heat or cooling to the locomotive cab.
- Locomotives operating in the state would be required to register with CARB and locomotive activity, emission levels and idling data would be reported annually.
- In 2030:
- Locomotives must be 23 years old or younger in order to be used in California.
- “All switch, industrial and passenger locomotives with an original engine build date of 2030 or newer would be required to operate in a ZE [zero-emission] configuration — i.e., qualify as either a ZE locomotive or ZE capable locomotive to operate in California.”
- In 2035:
- “All Class I line haul locomotives with an original engine build date of 2035 and beyond would be required to operate in a ZE configuration — i.e., qualify as either a ZE locomotive or ZE capable locomotive to operate in California.”
CARB estimates that between 2023 and 2050, this regulation statewide would reduce approximately 7,455 tons of particulate matter (PM), 389,630 tons of NOx emissions and 21.9 million metric tons of greenhouse gas emissions. The agency says that would be equivalent to removing all heavy-duty diesel trucks from California’s roads for all of 2030. CARB projects in 2022, locomotives used in passenger and freight operations emitted more than 640 tons per year of PM2.5 and over 29,800 tons per year of NOx emissions. This week’s deliberations will be the latest in a debate that has been going on for years on whether to regulate locomotive emissions. This proposed regulation was released in November 2022. The American Short Line and Regional Railroad Association (ASLRRA) has said the regulation could render a number of short line railroads operating in California to become “financially insolvent.” “CARB has dramatically underestimated the cost of the Proposed Rule. While the rule proposes extremely onerous recordkeeping and anti-idling requirements, the spending account provision provides the most severe burden to small businesses,” ASLRRA said in an April 2021 statement to CARB. The trade association also said costs for new locomotives that could be compliant range between $5 million and $7 million for each locomotive.
Worker unaccounted for after explosion in a Newburyport chemical plant - Early Thursday morning, crews responded to an explosion at a chemical plant in Newburyport, MA. According to our affiliate WCVB, the fire chief said there were 5 workers inside the building at the time of the explosion. 4 workers were taken to a local hospital and 1 is still unaccounted for. The building sustained major damage which prevented firefighters from entering and searching for the missing worker. Officials are asking those who work in the industrial park to avoid the area.
Massachusetts blast site where 1 died moves to cleanup phase (AP) — Authorities in Massachusetts on Friday identified the worker who died after a powerful explosion tore through a pharmaceutical chemical plant with a history of safety violations. Fire crews in Newburyport were still cleaning up the site, a day after what they described as seven-alarm hazardous materials event that tore the roof off the building and sprayed debris as far as 800 feet (244 meters) away from the facility. Four workers were sent to a hospital, but were uninjured and released. The person who died was identified as Jack O’Keefe, 62, of Methuen, according to a spokesperson for the Essex County District Attorney’s office. An autopsy is planned. About four dozen large barrels containing chemicals including acetone, methanol and isopropyl alcohol were removed from the building Friday, and a crane was brought in to shore up a metal support beam as crews worked, according to a statement by Newburyport Acting Fire Chief Stephen Bradbury III. “Today’s goal is to remove hazardous materials and start to remove structural material so that the facility can be turned over to private contractors,”
Coal, gas viewed favorably in NorthWestern Energy planning - NorthWestern Energy continued its case for more coal and natural gas power in a resource plan disclosed Monday.As other Western utilities shutter coal-fired power plants and pivot to renewables, NorthWestern suggests the likelihood of an energy shortage at times of peak demand. Coal and natural gas are the energy sources the utility concludes make the most sense. The odds of a "loss of load" leading to an outage somewhere in the Pacific Northwest is as high as 5%, based on loss of load probability forecasts by the Northwest Conservation Council.If Colstrip Power Plant were to close in 2025, NorthWestern estimates the cost of its generation portfolio would increase 30% if the Colstrip generation were replaced with non-carbon resources. That replacement amount as a percentage would be 10% in 2030 and 7% in 2035. Montana customers are paying down roughly $4.5 billion in debt related to generation purchased in the last 15 years. NorthWestern expects to double its capacity share of Colstrip to 444 megawatts in 2026. The utility indicates that it could continue building gas-fired power plants until 2035. “A lot of baseload generation is basically being mothballed. And in place of it, intermittent generation,” said John Hines, NorthWestern’s vice president of supply. Currently, Pacific Northwest utilities with 70% ownership in Colstrip are headed for the exits. With the utilities depart more than a million captive ratepayers who shoulder most of the power plant's costs regardless of market conditions.Passing on costs to customers is more difficult for non-utility owners, who can only charge what the market will tolerate. This is the case for Colstrip shareholder Talen Energy, a market generator.NorthWestern and Talen Energy will each take on additional shares of Colstrip from departing owners beginning in 2026. A second round of departures takes place in 2030.Three of those exiting owners are making high-dollar investments in Montana renewable energy, including PacifiCorp's 250-megawatt Pryor Mountain Wind project near Bridger and the 750-megawatt Clearwater Wind Project near Miles City. The combined investment is more than $1 billion. Puget Sound Energy and Portland General Electric are contracting power from Clearwater.
Amid Glimmers of Bipartisan Interest, Advocates Press Congress to Add Nuclear Power to the Climate Equation - Even as climate change spurs interest in low-carbon energy sources, high costs and stubborn construction delays are impeding global investment in nuclear power, an expert told Congress this month. Armond Cohen, executive director of the nonprofit Clean Air Task Force, told the House Subcommittee on Energy, Climate and Grid Security that the federal government needs to collaborate with the nuclear industry and investment community to grow atomic energy. In two congressional hearings related to nuclear energy, lawmakers on both sides of the aisle expressed support for expanding the domestic industry. “As many of you know, I believe that safe nuclear power plays an essential role in our efforts to address the greatest challenge of our time, the climate crisis,” the Democratic chairman of the Senate Environment Committee, Sen. Tom Carper of Delaware, said at that panel’s hearing. With 93 reactors across 28 states, nuclear power plants currently generate half of the non-fossil-fuel power in the U.S., or a little over 19 percent of the nation’s total electricity. The newest plant, Plant Vogtle Unit 3 in Georgia, connected to the grid just this month. But growth in the industry has remained stagnant for decades, according to a recent memorandum released by the House committee. Only two new reactors have been built since 2009, even though 14 licenses have been issued for construction. Growth has been stymied not only by up-front construction costs but by flagging electricity demand and competition from other energy sources. A divide remains between those championing the low-carbon benefits of nuclear energy and investors who feel that the financial risks are too great.A report issued last month by the Department of Energy echoed some of those concerns, declaring that the nuclear industry was at a “commercial stalemate.” Many of the investments needed for deployment have been deemed too risky to pursue because of potential cost overruns and the possibility that construction will ultimately be abandoned, it noted. The industry has also traditionally struggled to gain traction among investors who factor environmentally and socially responsible goals into their decisions. Yet, as the bipartisan interest in Congress suggests, the winds could be shifting. With demand for climate action heating up, the industry is mustering renewed support as a low-emissions alternative to fossil fuels.
New Mexico law nixes a proposed nuclear waste dump -In March, New Mexico lawmakers took their biggest step yet in an attempt to block plans for a nuclear waste storage facility in the scrublands near Carlsbad.The legislature passed Senate Bill 53 on a largely partisan vote, seeking to block Holtec International’s eight-year effort to build a facility in southeastern New Mexico that would hold 8,680 metric tons of high-level radioactive waste from nuclear power plants across the country.The state has been challenging Holtec’s plans for years, both in court and before the federal Nuclear Regulatory Commission. But New Mexico’s best chance at stopping the project may come in the form of the new law, which became effective when Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham signed it on March 17.Legal and nuclear experts anticipate that the law will face legal challenges, however. And in the end, federal courts will likely determine if New Mexico has the authority to keep Holtec from building its Consolidated Interim Storage Facility on a 1,040-acre site between Carlsbad and Hobbs.Foes of the project include not only the governor and state legislators, but also the state’s congressional delegation, the All Pueblo Council of Governors, numerous local governments and a wide array of activists and citizens. Transporting radioactive waste through New Mexico and storing it near one of the world’s most productive oil fields would jeopardize the economy, the environment, and health and safety, opponents say. “People are deserving of protection for our way of life and our health and well-being,” said Rose Gardner, a Eunice resident and member of the Alliance for Environmental Strategies, who advocated for SB 53 this spring.Lujan Grisham, for her part, sent a letter to the NRC shortly after she signed the bill, asking the agency to “immediately suspend any further consideration of the Holtec license application.”
ComEd bribery trial verdict: Madigan associate, 3 others found guilty on all counts - Chicago Sun-Times - The trial of former Illinois House Speaker Michael J. Madigan is still a year away, but a federal jury fired a dire warning shot Tuesday when it convicted four former political insiders of a nearly decade-long conspiracy to bribe the once-powerful Southwest Side Democrat. Following 27 hours of deliberations at the end of a trial that featured about 50 witnesses over six weeks, the 12 jurors convicted longtime Madigan friend and confidant Michael McClain, former ComEd CEO Anne Pramaggiore, ex-ComEd lobbyist John Hooker and onetime City Club President Jay Doherty on every count in an indictment handed up in November 2020. That indictment was the result of an aggressive federal investigation into Chicago-style politics that has had Madigan at its center since 2014. It helped end Madigan’s record-breaking grip on power in the Illinois House of Representatives in January 2021. But it’s also clearly bound for the 7th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals, and maybe beyond. The panel of seven women and five men listened over the last two months as lawyers battled in a 17th-floor courtroom at the Dirksen Federal Courthouse over the difference between honest, legal lobbying and criminal activity. In the end, the jury rejected the idea that the allegations amounted to politics as usual. Jury foreperson Sarah Goldenberg told the Chicago Sun-Times that she thought Madigan “had a heavy hand in how this corruption and coercion took place.” Another juror, Amanda Schnitker Sayers, said Madigan’s involvement in the scheme “was, of course, key.” “Our perception was that [Madigan] really did cause this all to happen,” Schnitker Sayers, of Logan Square, told reporters. “If it wouldn’t have been for him, then these people would not have been in the position that they would need to commit crimes in the first place.”Madigan is set to face his own trial in April 2024 on a separate indictment that alleges the same scheme, in addition to others, for which federal prosecutors just secured a resounding victory. Schnitker Sayers said members of the panel she served with plan to sit in on at least one day of Madigan’s trial “to watch him go through his own process.”
BP contests fines for gross safety violations that led to deaths of two Ohio refinery workers - BP Products North America is contesting the $156,250 in fines it was assessed by the US Occupational Health and Safety Administration (OSHA) for the series of gross safety violations that led to the deaths of two young workers at an Ohio refinery facility last September. Max Morrissey, 34, and Ben Morrissey, 32, were killed in the entirely preventable explosion and fire at the BP Husky refinery in Oregon, Ohio, just outside of Toledo. The fine OSHA announced in March for the deaths of the two young fathers was insulting enough. The $156,250 the federal agency assessed BP for its criminal negligence amounts to an infinitesimal fraction of the $28 billion BP made in profits last year and the $8.2 billion first-quarter profits it announced Tuesday morning. As we commented at the time, “For American capitalism, the life of a worker is very cheap.” But OSHA records obtained by the World Socialist Web Site show that BP has no intention of even paying these derisory fines. On April 4, Gregg Dillard, an attorney from the Houston law firm Baker Botts (appropriately headquartered at One Shell Plaza) provided a Notice of Contest to OSHA, which stated that “BPPNA contests the Citation in its entirety, including all items, alleged violation descriptions, type/classification, proposed penalties and abatement, and abatement dates set forth therein.” The Toledo Blade, which first reported the contested fines in a short article last month, attempted to reach BP and OSHA for comment but received no replies. Requests for comments from Steve Sallman, the director of the United Steelworkers’ Department of Health, Safety and Environment, who was CC’d a copy of BP’s Notice of Contest, have gone unanswered. According to an OSHA press release in mid-March, the two workers were attempting to correct “rising liquid levels in the fuel gas mix drum when a flammable vapor cloud formed, ignited and then triggered an explosion” on September 20, 2022, “causing the deadly burns.” After a six-month investigation, OSHA cited BP for 10 “serious” and one “other-than-serious” violations. Among them were failure to control chemical levels at its Crude 1 processing unit, which “resulted in a release of liquid Naptha exposing employees to flammable vapor, fire, hydrogen sulfide, and explosion hazards.” BP was also cited for failing to “develop and implement written operating procedures that provide clear instructions for emergency shutdown, including the conditions under which emergency shutdown is required, and the assignment of shutdown responsibility to qualified operators to ensure that emergency shutdown is executed in a safe and timely manner.”
Letters: Ohio lawmakers disregard public by allowing fracking in parks - Newark Advocate - Members of the Ohio General Assembly have as much disregard for the quality of public recreation and the environment as they do for the ability of citizens to initiate amendments to Ohio's Constitution. The passage of Amended House Bill 507 in late 2022 mandates the leasing of state parks and public lands for fracking and oil and gas development. Previously, state agencies had discretion over the leasing of the land under their control. Ohio's state parks, forests and other lands are owned by the citizens. They are supported by public tax dollars, yet the public has no say in determining how these valuable resources, which constitute a public trust, are to be used. Additionally, HB 507 contains no provision for required public notice and comment on leasing decisions involving state lands. It is beyond belief that public policy makers would sanction an industrial land use, to wit, oil and gas production, upon land heretofore dedicated to public recreation! As a former public official, I know well the critical importance of public notice. The leasing of state-owned lands to private entities for oil and gas production is a matter significant public interest. Ohio's citizens expect, and deserve, much more from their elected officials! from David A. Lipstreu, Newark
Residents near Lordstown Energy Center in Lordstown, Ohio ask to delay rezoning vote (WKBN) – The Lordstown Energy Center has been using natural gas to generate electricity for five years now. Right next door, the land has been cleared for a second plant, and the company that owns them both wants part of the land to be rezoned from residential to industrial. The decision is up to Lordstown Village Council, which has yet to decide. But at a public meeting Monday evening, people weren’t so much concerned about the zone change as they were about issues at the plant that is operating. Lordstown warns it may fail as investor Foxconn gets jumpy Along state Route 45 in Lordstown, right next to the Lordstown Energy Center, land has been cleared for a second power plant. But among the pipes and heavy equipment, part of the land is zoned as residential. Clean Energy Future, which owns the plant and is building the new one, wants it to be changed to industrial. “I do not have a problem personally with rezoning this one area,” said Lordstown Mayor Arno Hill. Hill was the only speaker who supported the zone change, which is for 34.7 acres, that fronts Route 45, adjacent to where the second plant is being built. Lordstown resident Mark McGrail did not speak against the zone change but against the way the current plant is operating. “The plant that’s operating is a noise nuisance. The switching station they installed is a light nuisance,” McGrail said. McGrail asked village council to delay the rezoning until the nuisance issues are addressed. “There are nights that it howls away,” said Larry Tura, who lives southeast of the plant. Tura wants Clean Energy Future to be held accountable. “You guys need to hold them to 100% of the zoning laws that are on the books today, and that’s barriers and sound and whatever else it takes to make them stay in compliance,” Tura said. Lordstown resident Danielle Watson wondered why this was coming up now. “Why was this not rezoned previously to the groundbreaking ceremony? Because usually, everything’s done before there’s an actual groundbreaking ceremony,” Watson said. Hill said it was a public hearing and council was under no obligation to answer questions. Representatives of Clean Energy Future were in attendance but did not speak. At its regular meeting following the public hearing, Lordstown Village Council moved the zone change through a first reading. It’ll likely make it through three readings before a vote is taken.
Ohio's Natural Gas, Oil Property Taxes Lifting State Coffers - Natural gas and oil operations in eight Ohio counties alone provided $364 million in property taxes between 2010 and 2021, with taxes in 2020 and 2021 reaching record highs. Ohio’s top ranking counties for property tax generation in 2021, the most recent year for data, were Belmont ($17.26 million), Jefferson ($11.19 million) and Monroe ($10.63 million), according to the Ohio Oil and Gas Association (OOGA). “The latest tax numbers again reinforce the positive impact our industry has in the communities where we operate,” said OOGA President Rob Brundrett. “Not only does the industry employ more than 200,000 Ohioans and provide abundant and affordable energy, but we also provide millions of dollars for local governments and infrastructure projects.” In 2021, Ohio’s public utility, industrial and mining sector was the second-largest real property tax generator, contributing more than $4 billion. Residential and agricultural real property taxes provided the state with the most revenue, more than $14 billion, and public utility tangible personal property contributed a little more than $2 billion. The annual report in 2021 by the Ohio Department of Natural Resources’ (DNR) documented that the state produced 2.254 Tcf of natural gas. That made Ohio the sixth largest natural gas producing state after Texas, Pennsylvania, Louisiana, West Virginia and Oklahoma. Down slightly from the 2020 high of $62.17 million, oil and gas operations generated $57.63 million in property taxes in 2021, OOGA reported. Despite generating more tax revenue in 2020, Ohio’s oil and gas exploration and production (E&P) companies drilled fewer wells compared to 2021, dropping to 160 from 207 wells, according to the ODNR. E&Ps also obtained nearly 100 fewer permits in 2020 compared with 2021. In 2020, E&Ps working in the state received 268 permits, compared with 354 in 2021. The all-time high was 1,114 permits in 2014. Nine natural gas rigs were operating on average in Ohio’s Utica Shale during 2020. According to Baker Hughes Co.’s latest count for the week ended Apr. 21, 10 rigs were working in Ohio’s Utica. Moving forward, however, drilling permits could be on the rise. Earlier this year, Ohio Gov. Mike DeWine signed into law House Bill (HB) 507, ensuring state agencies would lease land for E&P activities. Following delays at the DNR’s Oil and Gas Land Management Commission to establish a standard lease form, HB 507 is designed to expedite the leasing process.
Gulfport 1Q Net Income Swings +$1B to Positive, Avg 1.06 Bcfe/d | Marcellus Drilling News -Gulfport Energy, the third-largest driller in the Ohio Utica Shale (by the number of wells drilled), emerged from bankruptcy in May 2021 with a new board and new top management. In January of this year, the company appointed a new CEO, John Reinhart, the former President and CEO of M-U driller Montage Resources Corporation before that company was gobbled up by Southwestern Energy (see Marcellus Veteran John Reinhart Joins Gulfport Energy as CEO). Yesterday Gulfport issued its first quarter 2023 update. The company made $523 million in net income during 1Q23 versus losing $493 million in 1Q22–a swing of over $1 billion! What about the number of wells drilled and production?
25 New Shale Well Permits Issued for PA-OH-WV Apr 17-23 | Marcellus Drilling News - New shale permits issued for Apr. 17-23 in the Marcellus/Utica picked up five from the prior week. There were 25 new permits issued in total last week, up from 20 in the prior week. Last week’s tally included 21 new permits for Pennsylvania, 2 new permits for Ohio, and 2 new permits in West Virginia. Last week the top receiver of new permits was Range Resources with 7 permits issued in Washington County, PA. Greylock Energy was number two with 6 new permits issued in Greene County, PA. Coterra Energy (Cabot O&G), EQT Corp, Greene County (PA),Greylock Energy, Monroe County, Olympus/Huntley & Huntley, Range Resources Corp, Southwestern Energy, Statoil, Susquehanna County, Washington County, Westmoreland County, Wetzel County
18 New Shale Well Permits Issued for PA-OH-WV Apr 24-30 | Marcellus Drilling News - New shale permits issued for Apr. 24-30 in the Marcellus/Utica fell from the prior week. There were 18 new permits issued last week, down from 25 in the prior week. Last week’s tally included 8 new permits for Pennsylvania, 4 new permits for Ohio, and 6 new permits in West Virginia. Last week the top receiver of new permits was Antero Resources, with 6 permits issued in Tyler County, WV. EQT (Rice Drilling) was second-highest, with 4 permits issued in Greene County, PA. Antero Resources, Bradford County, Carroll County, Chesapeake Energy, Columbiana County, Coterra Energy (Cabot O&G), EQT Corp, Greene County (PA), Hilcorp Energy, INR, JKLM Energy, Monroe County, Potter County, Statoil, Susquehanna County, Tyler County
Community Voices: A plastic world - Our landfills and oceans are full of plastic waste. Plastic is in the food cycle, and with our consumption of animal protein, it is now in our bodies. It's a serious world-wide issue. The train derailment in Ohio that released huge amounts of vinyl chloride used to make PVC plastics, and other chemicals, is part of the problem.The advocacy group Beyond Plastics released a report titled “The Real Truth About the United States Plastics Recycling Rate,” which documented a recycling rate of 5 percent to 6 percent for 2021. The group also revealed that while plastic recycling is on the decline, the per capita generation of plastic waste has increased by 263 percent since 1980.The United States produces the most plastic waste per capita worldwide. This is followed by the United Kingdom, South Korea and Germany. By comparison, India and China are 18th and 19th, respectively. The Philippines produces around 33 percent of all oceanic plastic waste worldwide. The failure of plastic recycling contrasts with paper, which is recycled at around 68 percent. The high recycling rates for post-consumer paper and cardboard prove that recycling works to reclaim valuable natural material resources. It is plastic recycling that has always failed as it has never reached 10 percent.In November 2022, Shell Chemical Appalachia LLC, a subsidiary of Shell, commenced operations at its Shell Polymers Monaca site. This facility uses ethane from shale gas to produce polyethylene. Ethane is a byproduct of oil refining and when its molecules are "cracked" produces ethylene. Then three reactors combine ethylene with catalysts to create polyethylene plastic which is turned into pellets. Estimates suggest that an operation this size would use ethane from as many as 1,000 fracking wells.The plant is expected to emit up to 2.25 million tons of climate warming gases annually, equivalent to approximately 430,000 extra cars on the road. It will also emit 159 tons of particulate matter, 522 tons of volatile organic compounds, and more than 40 tons of other hazardous air pollutants. All this is an addition to the pollutants of other plants. The U.S. plastics industry emits green-house gases at the same rate as 116 coal-fired power plants, according to a report from Beyond Plastics.Exposure to these emissions is linked to brain, liver and kidney issues; cardiovascular and respiratory disease; miscarriages and birth defects; and childhood leukemia and cancer. Is this the future we want to leave to our descendants? If this plant is profitable, more like it will follow in the Ohio River Valley, which stretches through parts of Ohio, Indiana, Kentucky, Pennsylvania and West Virginia. Plastics manufacturing is estimated to account for more than a third of the growth in oil demand by 2030 and nearly half by 2050 — ahead of trucks, aviation and shipping, according to the International Energy Agency. Considering the volatility of the world's oil markets, the U.S. needs to save this precious natural resource for more important future uses. The world got along fine before the development of plastic, and we need to significantly reduce our use of it and eliminate polystyrene completely. No more plastics producing plants should be constructed and many plastics plants in existence need to be restructured to something else. Politicians that promote all the various polluting businesses, including plastics manufacturing, need to be re-educated about the evils of plastics or voted out of office — for our children's sake, for subsequent generations, and saving the planet from ruin.
Fracking Chemicals Pose Health Risks for 18 Million Americans --A group of scientists, led by a Northeastern environmental justice lab, analyzed available data on chemicals used in fracking and arrived at some staggering conclusions.Almost 18 million people, or 5.4% of the U.S. population, live within a mile of an oil or gas well. About one-third are non-white and from ethnic backgrounds. And older individuals, young children and people with low incomes are among the most vulnerable. The purpose of the research was to highlight the lack of mandatory disclosure in federal legislation.“We really wanted to draw attention to the fact that the environmental and, therefore, the environmental justice impacts of fracking aren’t being properly assessed because of the lack of monitoring and [existing] exemptions,” says Vivian Underhill, a postdoctoral research fellow in the Wylie Environmental Data Justice Lab at Northeastern and the lead author ofthe study.The study quantified the number of disclosures and the total mass of chemicals reported between 2014 and 2021. The researchers found that chemicals that were reported amounted to 2.82 million pounds, or almost twice as much as the weight of the Washington monument. But the real surprise was that they constitute only 4% of the chemicals reported in proprietary formulas (more than 7.2 billion pounds) that do not specify the composition of the fracking fluid.Another major finding was that in 2021 fracking disclosures with at least one proprietary claim increased to 88%. “The concern is that huge amounts of chemicals are not reported at all, and we don’t have a sense of what’s in [those solutions],” Underhill says. Chemicals used in the fracturing solution serve various purposes—kill bacteria growing underground, reduce friction to make the fluid flow down the well more easily, assist in recovering the fluid after fracturing or even to dissolve the rock itself.“The oil industry, generally, is so profitable. There is a huge economic incentive to experiment with different kinds of combinations of chemicals,” Underhill says.The research identified 28 unique chemicals that would have been regulated under the Safe Drinking Water Act. They used Open-FF, a data project that improves accessibility and reliability of FracFocus data, an official fracking disclosure database. FracFocus, Underhill says, has major data gaps and problems with data accuracy.
MPLX reports boost in total pipeline throughputs in Q1 2023 - (Reuters) -U.S. energy midstream company MPLX LP (i.e. Marathon Petroleum) on Tuesday reported record earnings for the first quarter due to a 6% boost in oil and gas pipeline throughputs and higher pipeline tariff rates. Adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) attributable to MPLX was a record $1,519 million in the quarter, compared with $1,393 million for the first quarter of 2022. Net income rose to $943 million from $825 million. Total crude oil, refined product and natural gas pipeline throughputs were 5.6 million barrels per day (bpd) in the first quarter, and the average tariff rate was 90 cents per barrel for the quarter, an increase of 1% year on year. The company's overall natural gas gathered volumes averaged 6.4 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd), a 21% increase from the first quarter of 2022, it said. Gathered volumes in the Marcellus in Pennsylvania averaged 1.4 bcfd, or a 4% increase. The company also said during the call its long-term outlook for the Marcellus, Permian and Bakken basins was largely unchanged despite recently lower natural gas prices. MPLX is working to expand natural gas long-haul and crude gathering pipelines for the Permian and Bakken basins, it said. It is expanding its Whistler pipeline from 2.0 bcfd to 2.5 bcfd, and the associated ADCC pipeline lateral into the Corpus Christi domestic and export markets. The expansion is on schedule for completion in September, the company said. MPLX is continuing work on its sixth 200 million cubic feet per day (mmcfd) processing plant in the Permian basin, Preakness ll, expected online in the first half of 2024. In the Marcellus, MPLX is progressing Harmon Creek ll, a 200 mmcfd processing plant expected online in the first half of 2024.
New York Budget Proposal Bans Natural Gas Hookups in New Homes, Phases Out Peaker Plants - New York State is poised to ban natural gas hookups in construction of new residential buildings by the end of 2025 after Gov. Kathy Hochul (D) announced an agreement on the state’s 2024 budget.
New York set to ban gas furnaces, stoves in new buildings - — New York will require new buildings to be zero-emissions starting in 2026 and make a state authority a major player in developing renewables as part of this year’s budget, Gov. Kathy Hochul announced late Thursday. The state’s budget will ban fossil fuel combustion in most new buildings under seven stories starting in 2026, with larger buildings covered in 2029. That means no propane heating and no gas furnaces or stoves in most new construction. New York would be the first state to take this step through legislative action; California and Washington have done so through building codes. “We’re going to be the first state in the nation to advance zero-emissions new homes and buildings,” Hochul said Thursday, announcing a conceptual deal on the budget that was due March 31. The measure will help the state achieve its ambitious mandate to slash emissions by 40 percent from 1990 levels by 2030 and 85 percent by 2050 and was recommended in a plan approved in December by state agency heads and outside experts. Exemptions will be included for commercial kitchens, emergency generators and hospitals.
N.Y. bans gas appliances in new buildings, but you can replace a gas furnace in existing home -- New York’s transition to all-electric buildings will take a slower path than envisioned by the state Climate Action Council, because officials for now have dropped plans to prohibit the replacement of worn-out gas furnaces in existing structures. The budget agreement announced Thursday by Gov. Kathleen C. Hochul would require “zero-emission” appliances in new houses and buildings of seven stories or less, beginning in 2026. Taller buildings would fall under the rule in 2029.
Activists drop fracking wastewater suit against Delaware River commission - An environmental group that accused regulators of weakening a ban on the dumping of fracking wastewater in the Delaware River watershed has dropped its federal lawsuit, saying its most pressing concerns have been addressed. Damascus Citizens for Sustainability sued the Delaware River Basin Commission in January, about a month after regulators voted to ban the disposal of drilling wastewater in a vast watershed that includes portions of Pennsylvania, New Jersey, New York and Delaware. The lawsuit said regulators had quietly issued "extra-regulatory exemptions" after the vote that could have paved the way for the road spreading of contaminated fracking wastewater from so-called "conventional" well sites. Conventional wells are traditional vertical wells. Most new natural gas wells are drilled into deeper, "unconventional" rock formations like Pennsylvania’s Marcellus Shale. Energy companies use hydraulic fracturing, or fracking, to stimulate production in both types of wells and must recycle or otherwise properly dispose of the wastewater that results. The basin commission denied Damascus Citizens for Sustainability's legal claims of a loophole, saying the group had misinterpreted regulatory guidance on the new ban. But regulators agreed to clarify policy language to make clear the ban approved in December includes wastewater from all kinds of fracking sites, not just unconventional gas wells.
Equitrans Update on Rager Gas Leak, MVP, OVCX & More | Marcellus Drilling News - Earlier today Equitrans Midstream, the former EQT Midstream (now a standalone company), issued its first quarter 2023 update. The update is actually a series of updates about the company’s vitally important (to the Marcellus/Utica) pipeline and midstream projects. In the update, we learn more about the company’s Rager Mountain Natural Gas Storage Field accident; we learn the latest about the Mountain Valley Pipeline (MVP) project, essentially on hold; and we learn about the Ohio Valley Connector Expansion Project (OCVX), expected to be in-service the first half of 2024.
PHMSA Floats Gas Pipeline Leak Detection, Repair Rule – Law360 - U.S. regulators are proposing a rule to improve the detection and repair of leaks from nearly three million miles of natural gas pipelines and hundreds of underground storage and liquefied natural gas facilities to reduce the emissions of methane, a potent greenhouse gas…
Manchin tries again on permitting overhaul -Senate Energy and Natural Resources Chair Joe Manchin is relaunching his quest to overhaul the nation’s permitting laws Tuesday by reintroducing his proposal that capsized last year. The West Virginia Democrat’s bill, dubbed the “Building American Energy Security Act of 2023,” largely matches the language and provisions of a negotiated measure that failed to advance in the last Congress. Manchin said the base text would serve as a starting point for further Senate negotiations. “There is overwhelming bipartisan recognition that our current permitting processes aren’t working, and equally bipartisan support for addressing it through comprehensive permitting reform legislation,” Manchin said in a statement. “I am confident that we will find a path forward.” The bill’s introduction comes as Congress continues informal talks on overhauling the nation’s permitting laws. While the House passed a partisan bill, H.R. 1, in March that included permitting reforms and some hearings have been held in the Senate, there has been little momentum thus far to advance a serious negotiated agreement. Whether Manchin’s bill gets the ball rolling on that front is up for debate. Among its provisions, the bill would look to speed up the time for environmental reviews by setting a two-year shot clock on agencies to complete their work. It would also enable projects to seek legal enforcement of that timeline should agencies blow through the deadline. The bill would set a 150-day statute of limitations for legal challenges against an issued permit, along with a host of other changes to accelerate the legal review process. Critical to Democratic support, the bill also contains a section dedicated to expanding and bolstering the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission’s ability to site and permit interstate transmission lines. Crucially for Manchin, the legislation would once again authorize the controversial Mountain Valley pipeline, a natural gas effort that runs through his state. Though it is more than 90 percent completed, it has run into multiple legal problems related to environmental reviews. Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm recently endorsed the project’s authorization, even as progressives have raged against its completion. Manchin’s attempt at permitting overhaul last year ultimately succumbed to pressure from both the left and right. Progressives rebelled against what they saw as an attack on environmental protections in favor of fossil fuel infrastructure. Republicans mostly refused to engage on an effort that was the result of Manchin’s earlier backing of what became the Inflation Reduction Act. The issue came to a head in December as Manchin forced a vote on the bill as an amendment to the annual national Defense policy bill. The amendment failed, although it did attract seven Republican senators.
M-U Drillers Predict NatGas Price Rebound in 2024, Supplies Decrease - Marcellus Drilling News - We are currently in the latest quarterly update season. In fact, we are about done with quarterly updates for the first quarter. Most (if not all) of the publicly traded Marcellus/Utica drillers have turned in their quarterly updates, as well as gas drillers from other plays (like the Haynesville). If you review the statements made by U.S. gas drillers in this latest round of updates, you’ll find the sentiment expressed that although we’re currently in the price basement for natural gas, most drillers don’t think it’s going last long. They think low prices for natgas are short-lived and that a rebound awaits us in 2024.
May Shaping Up to Deliver ‘Gigantic’ Storage Builds as Natural Gas Futures Slide Early - Fading heating demand and the potential for hefty storage injections in the upcoming weeks pressured natural gas futures lower in early trading Monday. The June Nymex contract was off 4.5 cents to $2.365/MMBtu at around 8:40 a.m. ET. Trends were mixed in the weekend weather data, with the American model adding 9 total degree days (TDD) on a combination of cooler and hotter trends but with the European model shedding 2 TDD, according to NatGasWeather.The data continued to show a pattern that would see “national demand dropping to light to very light levels” during the second week of May, NatGasWeather said. During this time frame, temperatures over the northern United States were expected to warm into the “perfect” 60s to 80s, with southern regions predicted to see only locally hotter 90s, for overall light national demand.
US natgas futures drop 4% on record output, milder weather (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures fell about 4% on Monday on record output and forecasts for milder weather and less heating demand next week than previously expected. Front-month gas futures for June delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 9.2 cents, or 3.8%, to settle at $2.318 per million British thermal units (mmBtu). On Friday, the contract rose about 2% to its highest close since March 16. Looking ahead, the premium of the November 2023 contract over October 2023 NGV23-X23 rose to a record 46 cents. The industry uses the October-November spread to bet on winter weather forecasts since October is the last month of the summer cooling season when utilities inject gas into storage. Data provider Refinitiv said average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states rose to a record 101.3 bcfd in April, up from the prior all-time high of 100.5 bcfd in March. Meteorologists projected the weather in the Lower 48 states would turns from colder-than-normal from May 1-5 to near- to warmer-than-normal from May 6-16. With the weather turning seasonally warmer, Refinitiv forecast U.S. gas demand, including exports, would slide from 95.6 bcfd this week to 91.0 bcfd next week. The forecast for next week was lower than Refinitiv's outlook on Friday. Gas flows to the seven big U.S. LNG export plants rose to a record 14.0 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) in April, up from the previous all-time high of 13.2 bcfd in March, according to Refinitiv. Some analysts have begun to question whether the recent collapse of gas prices in Europe and Asia could force U.S. exporters to cancel LNG cargoes this summer after mostly mild weather over the winter left massive amounts of gas in storage. In 2020, at least 175 LNG shipments were canceled due to oversupply and weak demand. But for now, most analysts say energy security concerns following Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 should keep global gas prices high enough to sustain record U.S. LNG exports in 2023. Gas was trading at a 21-month low of around $12 per mmBtu at the Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF) benchmark in Europe and at a 22-month low of $12 at the Japan Korea Marker (JKM) in Asia. Even though TTF gas prices were down about 49% and JKM down about 61% so far this year, those prices were still high enough to feed demand for U.S. LNG exports. Gas stockpiles in northwest Europe - Belgium, France, Germany and the Netherlands - were currently at about 60% of capacity, keeping the amount of gas in storage about 58% above its five-year (2018-2022) average for the time of year, according to Refinitiv. That is much more gas in storage than in U.S. inventories, which are currently about 22% above their five-year norm again due to mostly mild weather last winter. To ensure Europe has enough gas for the winter heating season, the European Union wants utilities to refill stockpiles to 90% of capacity by Nov. 1.
US natgas futures fall 3% to 3-week low on record output (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures fell about 3% to a three-week low on Thursday on record output despite a federal report showing a smaller-than-usual storage build last week when cold weather kept heating demand for the fuel high. That price drop also came despite forecasts for higher demand over the next two weeks than previously expected as gas flows to liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants increase. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said utilities added 54 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas into storage during the week ended April 28. That was close to the 52-bcf build analysts forecast in a Reuters poll and compared with an increase of 72 bcf in the same week last year and a five-year (2018-2022) average increase of 78 bcf. Last week's increase boosted stockpiles to 2.063 trillion cubic feet (tcf), or 19.8% above the five-year average of 1.722 tcf for time of year. Front-month gas futures for June delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 6.9 cents, or 3.2%, to settle at $2.101 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), their lowest close since April 13. That also puts the front-month down for a fourth day in a row for the first time since late February. In the spot market, mild weather and weak demand in the U.S. West pressured next-day power and gas prices for Thursday to their lowest levels in years. Next-day gas at the Southern California Border fell to its lowest price since October 2020, while next-day power fell to its lowest price since June 2021 at the SP-15 hubin Southern California and its lowest price since January 2022 at the Palo Verde hub in Arizona. Data provider Refinitiv said average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states has risen to 101.6 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in May, up from a record 101.4 bcfd in April. Meteorologists projected the weather would remain mostly warmer than normal from May 4-14, with cooling degree days (CDD) exceeding heating degree days (HDD) for the first time this year. The weather is expected to turn nearly normal from May 15-19. With the weather turning warmer, Refinitiv forecast U.S. gas demand, including exports, would slide from 95.9 bcfd this week to 91.9 bcfd next week. Those forecasts were higher than Refinitiv's outlook on Wednesday. Gas flows to the seven big U.S. LNG export plants have slid to an average of 13.4 bcfd so far in May, down from a record 14.0 bcfd in April. The decline was due mostly to reductions at Cameron LNG in Louisiana. The amount of gas flowing to Cheniere Energy Inc's Sabine Pass in Louisiana, meanwhile, started to increase on Thursday. Last month's record flows were higher than the 13.8 bcfd of gas the seven plants can turn into LNG since the facilities also use some of the fuel to power equipment used to produce LNG.
Natural Gas Futures Find Reprieve, Escape Weeklong Losing Streak; Cash Prices Cascade - Natural gas futures found their footing on Friday, ending a four-day losing streak that was fueled by a litany of bearish fundamentals. The June Nymex gas futures contract gained 3.6 cents day/day and settled at $2.137/MMBtu. July rose 2.4 cents to $2.321. Even with Friday’s bump, the prompt-month contract closed trading on Friday down 11% from the prior week’s finish. NGI’s Spot Gas National Avg. shed 9.5 cents to $1.620 on Friday for weekend through Monday delivery. Analysts had anticipated an eventual break in the downward pressure, citing technical resistance. ICAP Technical Analysis pegged a low threshold around the $2 level that could trigger bargain buying. With other catalysts lacking, that appeared to be the driver of upward price action on Friday. Production held above 100 Bcf/d on Friday – near record levels – and pleasant spring weather that typically fails to generate natural gas demand dominated the Lower 48. Forecasts called for more of the same the rest of this month. National Weather Service data showed comfortable highs from the 60s to 80s permeating most of the country over the next two weeks – save for far southern markets and western deserts that were expected to see early summer-like heat. Long-range outlooks, while less reliable, also maintained expectations for weak weather-driven demand through the end of May and into the start of June.The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) on Thursday printed an injection of 54 Bcf natural gas into storage for the week ended April 28. The build compared bullishly with the five-year average injection of 78 Bcf for that week. Still, it increased stocks to 2,063 Bcf and put inventories well above the year-earlier level of 1,556 Bcf and the five-year average of 1,722 Bcf.Looking ahead, early estimates for the week ending May 5 submitted to Reuters landed at an average increase of 67 Bcf. That compares with a five-year average injection of 87 Bcf. But the benign weather forecast through the rest of May is widely expected to result in plump storage increases in the following weeks that could further widen surpluses.“Repeated gigantic weekly injections beginning in mid-May could keep momentum lower,”
Hundreds of gas plants could escape EPA climate rules --About 1,000 natural gas-fired power plants that provide energy at periods of peak demand could be excluded from the toughest standards under EPA’s upcoming carbon rules. These plants are often located in urban areas, raising concern among some environmental advocates that the agency’s climate rules on power plants could lead to increased pollution in low-income communities. “That’s a big concern with us, with what we think is going to come out in the new rules,” said Shelley Robbins, project director at the nonprofit Clean Energy Group. EPA is expected to propose power plant rules next week that would regulate carbon emissions at existing coal and gas facilities for the first time. The rules are expected to treat so-called peaker plants — which provide backup power to the grid — differently from baseload units, according to four people who have been briefed by EPA. Two outcomes are possible in the rules. The regulations might not cover peaker plants, two of the people said. Or the agency could offer laxer standards than those being planned for baseload units, two other people said. Those are likely to be based on efficiency improvements. EPA spokesperson Khanya Brann said the agency wouldn’t comment because the rule is under review and “subject to change.” But the four people who have discussed the draft rules with EPA and been granted anonymity to speak freely say peaker plants won’t have to abide by the standards being proposed for large gas plants that supply baseload power to the grid. Those plants will have to capture a share of their carbon before it enters the atmosphere — or find another way to make deep emissions cuts. Environmentalists who have worked to shutter peaker plants say that by holding them to less stringent standards EPA could encourage other gas plants to run as peaker units — and increase harmful pollution, like smog and soot. “By not paying attention to those emissions and holding them to the same standard, they are allowed to continue basically business-as-usual,” said Robbins. “And that means they continue — in addition to producing carbon — emitting localized pollutants right in the neighborhoods around them.” While baseload power plants aren’t typically located in densely populated areas, peaker units often are, because that’s where the demand is, Robbins said. These units tend to be less efficient and burn dirtier fuel than baseload plants. And pollution controls like scrubbers are less effective at controlling emissions from plants that ramp up and down instead of running consistently. The Clean Energy Group released a report last year that found that smog and particle pollution from peaker plants disproportionately impacts poor areas and communities of color. Two-thirds of peakers, which the group defines as facilities with 10 megawatts or less that run at 15 percent of their capacity, are sited in communities with more low-income households than the national average. Black and brown communities actually have fewer peakers on average than white communities, but they’re dirtier — responsible for sharply higher rates of nitrogen oxide emissions linked to cardiovascular and respiratory disease, the report found. Experts say a rule that makes it cheaper for baseload gas plants to operate as peaker plants — by not requiring costly retrofits — could incentivize plants to run less. That could make controls for smog and particulate matter less effective.
U.S. April oil exports top forecasts on Chinese demand (Reuters) -U.S. crude oil exports rose more-than-expected last month, building on a record 4.5 million barrels per day in March, as Chinese refiners snapped up cargoes to meet rising fuel demand, according to ship tracking data and analysts. U.S. crude exports rose by 22% last year from 2021 after Russia's invasion of Ukraine led the European Union, Britain, Canada and the U.S to ban imports of Russian oil and changed global flows. More recently, signs of an economic resurgence in China, the world's second-largest oil consumer, have drawn cargoes from Russia and U.S. travel demand after the country rolled back its COVID-19 restrictions also boosted gasoline and jet fuel consumption. "Right now, we're assuming April will average about 4 million barrels per day (bpd), but there is upside risk to that number," said Jenna Delaney, head of North American crude at consultancy Energy Aspects. April's exports "have only been a few hundred thousand barrels per day less than March, which is very surprising," said Rohit Rathod, a market analyst at Vortexa. "It was not expected that exports would remain above 4 million," he said. Favorable prices for U.S. crude compared to global benchmark Brent sent a flurry of cargoes abroad in April, a U.S.-based broker said. U.S. crude traded at an average discount of $6.47 to Brent in February and was nearly $6 less in the first half of March. When the spread is wider than minus $6, foreign buyers have an incentive to buy more oil linked to U.S. crude. April exports to China were set to touch about 850,000 barrels per day, the highest since May 2020, Kpler and Refinitiv Eikon data showed, as exports to Europe and other Asian countries dropped. In March, U.S. exports to China hit their highest level in two and a half years. Record March-April exports overall are unlikely to continue, analysts said. May U.S. exports will fall to about 3.78 million bpd in May, estimates Energy Aspects. On Friday, the WTI-Brent discount narrowed to minus $3.21 a barrel, the smallest spread since June, a level that is likely to dampen U.S. exports in China in May. Plunging Middle Eastern crude prices will sap demand for U.S. grades. Abu Dhabi's Murban crude oil premium to Dubai, for example, declined last week to two-year lows, making it more economic for Asian refiners to process compared to U.S. crudes.
More than 1K gallons of crude oil spills near Orange — Crews have been working to clean up an oil spill that happened in a marsh area near Orange more than five days ago. On Wednesday, April 26, 2023, personnel from the Coast Guard MARINE Safety Unit Port Arthur received a notification from the National Response Center, saying crude oil spilled from a 22-inch transmission pipeline on the Gulf Intracoastal Waterway near mile marker 260, according to a U.S. Coast Guard release. A unified command consisting of the Coast Guard, Louisiana Oil Spill Coordinator’s Office, Louisiana Department of Environmental Quality, and Shell Pipeline Company LP responded. The crude oil spilled into a marsh area about five miles east of Orange. The transmission line, called Zydeco, is owned by Shell, Petty Officer 1st Class Corinne Zilnicki told 12News. Shell personnel estimates 30 barrels, or 1,260 gallons, of crude oil spilled into the marsh area. The pipeline was shut in on April 25, 2023 with no additional visible discharge, according to the release. As of Tuesday, May 2, 2023, crews are still working to clean up the spill. Environmental Safety & Health Consulting Services, an oil spill removal organization hired by Shell, deployed 5,900 feet of containment boom and sorbent boom and are using one drum skimmer and four response vessels to remove the spilled oil. So far, about 19 barrels, or 798 gallons, of oil have been recovered, according to the release. Crews are using low-pressure flushing to remediate the affected shoreline along the bank of the Gulf Intracoastal Waterway. There have been no reports that any wildlife in the area was impacted by the spill. Drone evaluations and on-water assessments will continue to closely monitor the situation, and Shell is preparing to make repairs to the pipeline. While Corinne Zilnicki said no recreational traffic has been affected, restrictions on vessel traffic in the immediate area went into effect Monday at 6 p.m. and will remain in place until further notice. The cause of the spill is under investigation. The Unified Command is working in coordination with area partners to ensure the safety of the public and protect the environment.
Sinkholes are emerging in Texas. Is oil and gas to blame? -The emergence of a new gaping sinkhole in Southeast Texas is dredging up decades-old questions about how much of a role oil and gas production plays in causing the ground to open up. While not as well-documented as the link between oil and gas and earthquakes, the nexus between industry and sinkholes is of concern to some researchers who say drilling activity can help create gaping scars in the earth, posing risks to nearby communities. “Sinkhole formation is very common,” said Zhong Lu, a professor of earth sciences at Southern Methodist University. “Critically, we disturb [the earth] with hydrocarbon activities.” The issue came to the forefront this month when a fourth sinkhole developed in Daisetta, Texas, a small town of 1.48 square miles located between Houston and Beaumont. It occurred on land that used to house an oil field service company — the same piece of property where another sinkhole nearly 500 feet in diameter cracked open in 2008, prompting evacuations and fears the earth could soon swallow up the town’s high school located a quarter-mile away. The two others formed near oil and gas activity decades earlier. While both of the recent sinkholes seem relatively stable for now, and scientists haven’t definitively pinpointed the cause of their formation, the development is stirring debate about the role of oil and gas. “Most evidence attributing blame is circumstantial, but you do have sinkholes around wells,” said Jeff Paine, a senior research scientist with University of Texas at Austin’s Bureau of Economic Geology, who is working to analyze both Daisetta sinkholes. Some studies suggest a link. In areas of the Permian Basin in Texas, Lu and other researchers at SMU found in 2018 oil and gas activity caused the ground surface to rise and fall both due to injecting wastewater into the earth and pulling out crude. In studying a 4,000-square-mile section of the oil patch, they found that the areas around active, inactive and orphaned wells experienced subsidence of between 1 and 4 inches over a matter of months. The study published in Nature reported 40 inches of subsidence in 2 ½ years. Sinkholes have occasionally popped up in and around oil patches for decades, added Lu. He said that’s especially true among older wells, where pipes have degraded, old crews did not know how to best drill to prevent subsurface issues and operators flushed oil reservoirs full of water in efforts to eek more hydrocarbons out of the earth. While it’s difficult to draw a definitive cause for every sinkhole, oil and gas wells can provide a new avenue for fresh water to work its way deep into the ground, interacting with layers of salt and other soluble materials that can break down and cause the ground above it to become weak and ultimately give way, Lu and Paine said. In Daisetta, the land on which the new sinkhole sits has been the center of a slew of lawsuits, with attorneys for the city and local residents claiming that the oil field service company that once called the plot home injected more wastewater into the ground beneath it than its permits allowed, eating away at the salt dome beneath it and causing the earth to cave in. Those lawsuits, filed after the first nearly 500-foot-wide and up-to-75-foot-deep sink hole formed there in 2008, were dismissed by judges citing circumstantial evidence. Neither attorneys for the city of Daisetta nor attorneys representing DeLoach Vacuum Service/DeLoach Oil & Gas Waste Well, the now defunct oil field services company, responded to requests for comment. The Texas Oil & Gas Association also did not respond to request for comment.
U.N. panel on Indigenous issues asks Canada and U.S. to shut down Line 5 pipeline ⋆ Michigan Advance -In a final report issued Friday, an Indigenous-led United Nations panel recommended that Canada and the United States shut down the controversial Line 5 oil pipeline that transports oil through tribal treaty lands and waters in Michigan.“The permanent forum calls on Canada to reexamine its support for Enbridge Line 5 oil pipeline that jeopardizes the Great Lakes,” the report reads, adding that Line 5 “presents a real and credible threat to the treaty-protected fishing rights of Indigenous Peoples in the United States and Canada.”Since 2000, the United Nations Permanent Forum on Indigenous Issues (UNPFII) has served as a high-level advisory body to the U.N.’s Economic and Social Council. It has met every year since 2002.A spokesperson for Enbridge, a Canadian energy company, did not immediately respond to a request for comment.The 70-year-old Line 5 pipeline transports Canadian oil under the tumultuous waters where Lakes Michigan and Huron connect. That area — the environmentally sensitive Straits of Mackinac — is also the nexus of tribal land and waters ceded in the 1836 Treaty of Washington.The Canadian government has been strongly supportive of Enbridge’s pipeline projects in the United States, and hasattempted to intervene numerous times in Michigan Attorney General Dana Nessel’s ongoing legal fight to decommission Line 5.President Joe Biden has not taken a public stance on Line 5, so the position of the federal government on the issue remains unclear while pipeline treaty talks between the two countries continue.In March, dozens of local Democratic party leaders sent a letter to Biden urging his administration’s legal support in Nessel v. Enbridge. In January, Michigan Democratic Party (MDP) Chair Lavora Barnes asked Biden to declare a climate emergency and cancel the presidential permits authorizing Line 5 to cross the United States-Canada border.
TC Energy Eyeing Alberta Natural Gas Egress as CGL, Southeast Gateway Advance - TC Energy Corp. is working to expand natural gas takeaway capacity from the Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin (WCSB) amid record demand for the fuel across North America, management said. CEO François Poirier hosted a conference call last Friday to discuss the Calgary-based pipeline giant’s first quarter earnings. He was joined by Greg Grant, president of Canadian natural gas pipelines. Grant highlighted that TC added 700 MMcf/d of intra-basin capacity in Western Canada during 1Q2023, with another 500 MMcf/d slated to come online during the second quarter. Demand and utilization levels remain strong across all points of egress out of the basin...
Oil Company Gave $200K to Group Accusing Pipeline Opponents of Taking Secret Money DeSmog -A First Nations advocacy group whose leader has accused pipeline protesters of being beholden to hidden financial interests has taken hundreds of thousands of dollars from one of Canada’s top oil and gas producers, newly reviewed corporate documents reveal. Stephen Buffalo, CEO of the Alberta-based Indian Resource Council, is one of the most outspoken Indigenous voices in favor of oil and gas expansion, testifying several times to Canada’s federal government andappearing frequently in mainstream media outlets.On multiple occasions he’s used his platform to attack the credibility of First Nations people and environmentalists who oppose new oil and gas development, alleging they are being controlled by secretive funders and one time asking “who’s really pulling the string here?”But Buffalo’s organization has been quietly receiving contributions from Canadian Natural (CNRL), one of the largest oil and gas producers in Canada. That’s according to recent federal disclosures, which show that CNRL gave $200,000 to the Indian Resource Council between 2020 and 2022. Those disclosures are required under Canada’s Extractive Sector Transparency Measures Act, an anti-corruption law requiring companies to report payments to governments and other entities. Neither CNRL nor the Indian Resource Council responded to detailed questions about the contributions.
Biden’s Willow approval may get a sequel - The Biden administration may back yet another big fossil fuel project in Alaska, thanks in part to a boost from the president’s landmark climate law.Environmentalists are calling the project — which would export liquefied natural gas produced on the state’s North Slope — a “carbon bomb 10 times worse” than the Willow oil drilling effort the Interior Department approved in March. (The administration says that comparison most likely exaggerates the project’s impact.)The Alaska LNG project looked like it was on life support under the Trump administration, but its supporters say key State Department officials are pushing for its approval as allies like Japan clamor for American gas, Ben Lefebvre writes.Should the project get an official green light, the move would further complicate President Joe Biden’s climate legacy.Last year’s climate law included an unprecedented $369 billion in clean energy funding, and Biden has worked to boost international support for countering the Earth’s warming, including recently pledging$1 billion to help developing countries fight climate change. But the administration has also facedcriticism from some green groups for approving oil and gas permits at a rapid clip while OKing Willow, amid warnings from scientists that global carbon emissions need to plunge to avoid the worst impacts of rising temperatures. If completed, Alaska LNG would ship as much as 20 million tons of liquefied natural gas each year. The State Department estimates that would release 1.5 billion tons of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere over the 30 years it is projected to operate — equivalent to burning more than 8 million rail cars of coal.Biden’s ambassador to Japan, Rahm Emanuel, has promoted the project, calling it a way for Japan to become “the energy export hub for the Indo-Pacific” and reduce its coal dependency.The project also hit the congressional lottery. The carbon capture credits included in the climate law means Alaska LNG could make as much as $600 million annually using its planned carbon capture technology. It also became eligible for billions of dollars in federal loan guarantees in the 2021 infrastructure law (thanks to language from Alaska’s Republican senators).Biden’s ambassador to Japan, Rahm Emanuel, has promoted the project, calling it a way for Japan to become “the energy export hub for the Indo-Pacific” and reduce its coal dependency.The project also hit the congressional lottery. The carbon capture credits included in the climate law means Alaska LNG could make as much as $600 million annually using its planned carbon capture technology. It also became eligible for billions of dollars in federal loan guarantees in the 2021 infrastructure law (thanks to language from Alaska’s Republican senators).
TotalEnergies To Buy LNG From ADNOC In $1B Deal - ADNOC Gas Plc, a listed subsidiary of Abu Dhabi National Oil Co, has reached an agreement with France’s TotalEnergies SE to supply the latter with liquefied natural gas (LNG) in a $1B deal, Bloomberg has reported. The deal is one of the latest by a European gas buyer as Europe once again scrambles to fill its gas stores ahead of the next winter season.Last year, Europe managed to fill its gas stores well ahead of winter and has seen storage levels remain above historical levels thanks to mild weather, with higher temperatures curbing gas demand for heating in many countries. The continent is currently going through its second mildest winter on record with the high temperatures attributed to man-made climate change. The unusually mild winter has offered short-term relief to governments that have been struggling with high gas prices afterRussia slashed fuel deliveries to Europe last year. Last month, Putin warned Europe of a fresh gas crisis, with Gazprom, Russia’s state-owned gas supplier, telling Europe there “is no guarantee that nature will make such a gift” in reference to the favorable weather.Although the continent was able to avert a crisis, it paid a heavy price: the cost of replenishing natural gas stocks is estimated at over 50 billion euros ($51 billion), 10 times more than the historical average for filling up tanks. Luckily, gas prices have plunged due to lower demand. Still, at almost €40 a megawatt-hour, they’re still above historical averages with many analysts predicting they will rise again ahead of Europe’s next winter.To get around this conundrum, the European Commission is aiming for EU countries to start buying gas jointly "well before summer", in a bid to help countries refill their storage and avoid a supply crunch next winter, European Commission Vice-President Maros Sefcovic has told Reuters. The EC will require EU countries to ensure their local companies take part in the aggregation of gas demand with volumes equivalent to 15% of the gas needed to fill that country's storage facilities to 90% of capacity. This requirement amounts to ~13.5 billion cubic meters of gas-- a relatively miniscule amount considering the bloc used up 338 bcm in 2021. Sefcovic has urged member states to swiftly engage with market players in their countries to estimate purchase volumes after meeting EU country representatives to coordinate the planned purchases.
South Korea, Japan natural gas surpluses offset heat wave-driven demand in rest of Asia --Muted domestic natural gas demand, stable weather conditions and an uptick in nuclear power generation have curbed appetite for LNG imports in to South Korea and Japan and put pressure on spot LNG prices. Gas importers in the two countries said there were high inventory levels and that traders have requested suppliers to stagger some deliveries of LNG cargoes to manage the surplus. This has offset the impact of heat wave-driven LNG demand in parts of Southeast and South Asia. The net impact of ample supplies in South Korea and Japan has been bearish because of the scale of LNG imports by the two countries, and have kept spot prices below the $12s/MMBtu level. Japan was the single largest LNG importer in 2022 and South Korea the third largest, while China dropped to the second place. The Platts JKM LNG price benchmark for June was assessed at $11.685/MMBtu April 24, according to data from S&P Global Commodity Insights. South Korea gas surplus High inventory levels at South Korea’s largest LNG importer Kogas prompted the company to request for capacity at terminals operated by some of the second-tier gas importers and for some cargo deliveries to be deferred to the third quarter, suppliers said. Kogas is able to manage scheduled LNG deliveries until May or early June, but needs to find alternatives beyond that if downstream demand remains low, they said. LNG importers have elbow room to make minor adjustments to deliveries under long-term contracts to account for seasonality. There is also room for suppliers to accommodate some of these requests because of an unexpected surge in demand from Thailand, Bangladesh and India due to an ongoing heat wave, as well as new consumers like the Philippines and Hong Kong that are importing their first LNG cargoes, market participants said.
India to become Europe’s top supplier of refined oil products after massive purchases of Russian oil - In December last year, the European Union banned almost all seaborne oil imports from Russia, and two months later, the ban was further extended to refined fuels. In December last year, the European Union banned almost all seaborne oil imports from Russia, and two months later, the ban was further extended to refined fuels. However, despite tough EU sanctions, they have not stopped Russian oil from appearing in Europe. The reason is that India and other countries snapped up cheap Russian crude oil, processed it into diesel and other fuels, and then sold it to Europe at a higher price. India is buying record volumes of Russian crude, with the country on track to become Europe's top supplier of refined products this month, data from commodity data provider Kpler showed. Kpler data showed that European imports of refined products from India will soar to more than 360,000 barrels per day, slightly higher than those from Saudi Arabia. Meanwhile, India's crude oil imports from Russia in April will exceed 2 million barrels per day, accounting for nearly 44% of India's total oil imports. Russia was once the EU's largest diesel supplier. Before the Russia-Ukraine conflict broke out, more than half of Russia's seaborne oil exports went to the European Union and the Group of Seven (G7). The EU is now facing a dilemma. On the one hand, Europe needs alternative sources of diesel because it has cut off direct supplies from Russia. But on the other hand, if we continue to acquiesce in the sale of Russian oil to Europe in this way, it will not only boost the demand for Russian oil in countries such as India, but also mean higher costs, which in turn will make European refiners unable to buy cheap Russian oil face greater competition. Viktor Katona, chief crude oil analyst at Kpler, said: “Despite various sanctions, Russian oil is still finding its way back to Europe, with India ramping up fuel exports to the West as a good example. It is inevitable that India imports so much oil from Russia. "
Putin authorizes oil supplies to friendly countries - Chinadaily.com.cn -- Russian President Vladimir Putin has authorized oil and oil product supplies to friendly countries under contracts signed before Feb 1, according to a decree published on Friday.The decree, which takes effect from Friday, amended a previous one Putin signed at the end of last year that banned Russian oil and oil product supplies to foreign entities if their contracts directly or indirectly involved a price cap imposed by Western countries.In December 2022, the European Union placed a price cap of $60 per barrel on Russian seaborne crude oil, which was joined by the Group of Seven and Australia.
Russia’s Seaborne Crude Flows Climb With No Sign of Output Cut - -- Two months into Moscow’s threatened oil output cut, there is no sign of a sustained drop in crude flows out of the country. Russia’s exports jumped back above 4 million barrels a day in the week to April 28, a level it has surpassed only once before since its troops invaded Ukraine in February 2022, according to tanker-tracking data compiled by Bloomberg. Flows were virtually unchanged on a four-week average basis. Seaborne flows still aren’t reflecting a production cut that the energy ministry said was as big as 700,000 barrels a day in March. It doesn’t appear that refinery runs in Russia have dropped much either. Figures show processing rates remained virtually unchanged from the start of the year and, in the first 19 days of April, were 720,000 barrels a day higher than the same full month last year.Moscow has halted publication of crude and condensate production data, perhaps to make it more difficult to assess whether it really has cut output before reductions that are due to be made from this month by several of its OPEC+ partners. In a sign that it’s strapped for cash to fund its war, the Kremlin is turning again to its oil industry, exploring options ranging from cutting fuel subsidies to a windfall tax as it seeks to boost budget revenue. Meanwhile, President Vladimir Putin exempted oil flows under existing contracts to so-called friendly nations from an export ban intended to halt shipments to foreign buyers that adhere to a price cap imposed by the Group of Seven nations. The diversion of crude previously delivered to Poland and Germany through the Druzhba pipeline has boosted seaborne flows during the early part of this year to an average of 3.32 million barrels a day, compared with 2.94 million barrels a day during the equivalent period at the end of 2022. Flows to Germany halted at the end of 2022 and deliveries to Poland were stopped in late February. Poland’s state-controlled oil refiner PKN Orlen SA has terminated its last contract with a Russian supplier in response to the halt in oil shipments via Druzhba. The combined volume of crude on vessels heading to China and India plus smaller flows to Turkey and quantities on ships that haven’t yet shown a final destination rose for a third week to reach a record 3.39 million barrels a day in the latest four-week period. As the ultimate destinations of cargoes loading in late January became apparent, flows to China rose to new post-invasion highs, and remained close to those levels in February. Historical patterns suggest that most of the vessels currently identified as “Unknown Asia” destinations and heading for the Suez Canal will end up in India, while those loaded onto very large crude carriers off the north coast of Morocco or, more recently, in the Atlantic Ocean, will head to China. Ship-to-ship transfer operations into very large crude carriers have shifted to the Atlantic Ocean from the Mediterranean waters off the Spanish north African city of Ceuta, as they did last summer.The Aframax tankers Nurkez and Crius transferred their cargoes into VLCCs in the Atlantic Ocean off the Canary Islands last week. At least 62 cargoes, or 44.7 million barrels, have been transferred between ships in those two locations and off the Greek coast near Kalamata since the start of the year. Russia and India are discussing the creation of joint re-insurance institutes for oil shipments, according to Russian Deputy Prime Minister Denis Manturov, who didn’t rule out that such organizations may appear by the end of the year. Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak has said that Russia needs new insurance and reinsurance mechanisms for its oil exports. Crude flows in the week to April 28 jumped by about 680,000 barrels a day from the previous week, to 4.08 million barrels a day. On a four-week average basis, overall seaborne exports were little changed, dropping by 12,000 barrels a day to 3.45 million barrels a day, from their highest in 10 months. Volatile weekly data are affected by the scheduling of tankers and loading delays caused by bad weather. Port maintenance can also disrupt exports for several days at a time. All figures exclude cargoes identified as Kazakhstan’s KEBCO grade. Those are shipments made by KazTransoil JSC that transit Russia for export through the Baltic ports of Ust-Luga and Novorossiysk. The Kazakh barrels are blended with crude of Russian origin to create a uniform export grade. Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Kazakhstan has rebranded its cargoes to distinguish them from those shipped by Russian companies. Transit crude is specifically exempted from European Union sanctions. Asia Four-week average shipments to Russia’s Asian customers, plus those on vessels showing no final destination, edged lower to 3.25 million barrels a day in the period to April 28. That’s down just 30,000 barrels a day from the period to April 21. While the volumes heading to China and India appear to have declined from recent highs, history shows that most of the cargoes on ships without an initial destination eventually end up in one or other of those countries.
Oil spill allegedly from burning tanker pollutes Riau Islands' beach -- An oil spill that allegedly originated from a burning tanker ship in the Malaysian waters has polluted the Kampung Melayu Beach in Batam City, Riau Islands. Raihan, a local resident, stated here on Wednesday that they only found out about the oil spill early in the morning. "The water at the beach was covered in oil," he remarked while saying that the seawater has turned black. The Riau Islands Police suspect the oil waste to have originated from a tanker ship MT Pablo on the China-Singapore route that caught fire off the Malaysian southern coast. "Based on the report we received from the Harbor Masters and Port Authority Office (KSOP), the oil waste allegedly originated from a Gabon-flagged tanker ship MT Pablo sailing from China to Singapore that caught fire in the Malaysian waters two days ago on Monday (May 1)," Riau Islands Police's Special Crime Director Senior Commissioner Nasriadi remarked. In addition, he said, the satellite image from the Batam City Environment Service on April 30 showed three oil spill locations in the eastern Out Port Limit (OPL) covering an area of some 13.70 kilometers. "The (oil) contamination on the Kampung Melayu coastline is probably linked with the spill that occurred in the eastern OPL," he stated. The black oil waste was also found in the anchorage area of Batu Ampar and Tanjung Uncang waters. Nasriadi said, the police have coordinated with the port authority service and the city's environment office to apply temporary countermeasures and trace the origin of the waste. The KSOP has used Absorbent Pad devices to absorb the oil spill, he remarked. Meanwhile, a team from the port authority, the police, and the city's environment office has cleared up the oil spill that contaminated the beach. "Our step is to tackle it first, so it does not spread further. We will then find out where the oil spill came from. This (oil spill) has polluted the area about one to 1.5 kilometers along the coast," Batam Port Authority Head and Harbormaster M. Takwim stated. He elaborated that a 100-meter absorbent boom and 500 absorbent packs were readied to clean up the pollutants. "This (the oil spill) can be an MFO (marine fuel oil) waste or it can be asphalt. We could not confirm it yet," he remarked.
Mindoro oil spill cleanup continues -Two months after the tanker Princess Empress sank, oil spill cleanup in the waters off Oriental Mindoro continues, according to the Philippine Coast Guard (PCG). Marine science technicians tested absorbent pads made from coconut oil and fiber, which were installed in Barangay Navotas in Calapan City on May 1, the PCG reported yesterday. On Tuesday, two tug boats – Titan 1 and Cabilao of Malayan Towage and Salvage Corp. – deployed oil spill booms and a skimmer as well as conducted “manual scooping” in the area where the vessel sank to contain and recover sighted oil sheens off Balingawan Point. The PCG said the tug boats recovered 400 liters of oily water mixtures. The agency said 48.45 kilometers of the 57.77 kilometers of shoreline affected by the oil spill have been cleaned. Up to 5,963 sacks of oil-contaminated debris have been collected in Naujan, Calapan and Pola towns as of Tuesday. The Department of Environment and Natural Resources said damage to coral reefs, seagrasses, mangroves and fisheries was estimated at P7 billion.
Environmentalists slam marine oil, gas exploration plan - ENVIRONMENTALISTS have accused the government of using strong arm tactics to push through a plan to essentially place “primary use” of South African seas for oil and gas seismic surveys, exploration and development in the hands of multinational and smaller local gas and oil companies. Their ire was raised when Forestry, Fisheries and Environment Minister Barbara Creecy gazetted a Draft Offshore Oil and Gas Sector Plan: Input for Marine Spatial Planning for public comment, on March 10. The public were given 60 days to raise concerns, a period which ends on May 10. The decision by the Department of Mineral Resources and Energy (DMRE) on April 17 to grant French oil and gas giant TotalEnergies the go-ahead to drill as many as five exploration wells in a petroleum block between Cape Town and Cape Agulhas has caused them more consternation. Those opposed to the decision had 20 days, from April 20, to state their intent. Currently there are 20 active exploration and seven production rights over various offshore petroleum blocks. If Creecy’s proposed plan is eventually endorsed as law, environmentalists warned it would have a wide range of “catastrophic consequences” for the ecosystems of the country’s seas - the transport, tourism and other sectors that flourish in a healthy ocean. It would be “open season” for oil and gas companies as the majority of the blocks in the country's seas were earmarked for hydrocarbon mining. The affirmation would enable them to dictate terms in the respective blocks, as the draft bill was worded strongly in their favour. “There are nine sectors that have interest in our oceans but the oil and gas sector are predominating,” said Janet Solomon, co-founder of Oceans Not Oil, a rights group opposed to South Africa’s fossil fuel dependence. Shocking for Solomon’s group was some of the language used in Creecy’s plan. “Words like ‘primary use zoning’, ‘enabling environment’, ‘maximise recovery’ and ‘prioritise’. “The language is authoritarian and colonial.” Solomon said private entities would come in and receive priority zoning and every other sector would have to go on bended knee if they wanted a presence on a block. She pointed to the three recent instances where public consultation processes were done haphazardly. The most recent was delivered in the Eastern Cape High Court where oil and gas company Shell intended to conduct a seismic survey off the Wild Coast, but was blocked. However, Gwede Mantashe, the Mineral Resources and Energy Minister, was granted leave to appeal that outcome with the Supreme Court of Appeal. The matter is yet to be set down. Regarding subsistence fishing communities, Solomon said people were not getting the required information from the public document (plan), which was not acceptable, especially since their livelihoods depended on the sea. A feasibility issue for Solomon was the turbulence along local coastlines which could hamper off-shore construction and other work. “One has to look at the map of shipwrecks along our coastline to get an understanding.” Another concern were the gas pipelines that are expected to run along the coastline and into communities across the country, particularly when gas flaring occurs to release pressure. “There are many flaring hazards, especially for the health of communities.” Solomon predicted that rights groups and other concerned parties were likely to team up and challenge the government legally if their concerns were disregarded.
Yemen firm says oil sector must pay up to prevent spill - Global energy firms should help fill a $29-million gap in funding to safely remove oil from an abandoned tanker off Yemen’s coast, the war-ravaged country’s largest private company said Thursday. Hayel Saeed Anam Group (HSA), which in August contributed $1.2 million to a United Nations clean-up campaign, made the appeal hours before a virtual donor conference hosted by Britain and the Netherlands was due to kick off. “The global business community has a stake in ensuring that this devastating crisis is averted — particularly the oil sector,” Nabil Hayel Saeed Anam, the company’s managing director, said in a statement. “The potential disruption to trade routes and supply chains would be extensive, inflicting long-term operational and economic challenges for companies across the world.” To prevent a damaging oil spill in the Red Sea, the UN Development Programme in March took the unprecedented step of purchasing its own supertanker to remove more than a million barrels of oil from the beleaguered FSO Safer. The 47-year-old ship has not been serviced since Yemen’s civil war broke out in 2015 and was left abandoned off the rebel-held port of Hodeida, a critical gateway for shipments into the country heavily dependent on foreign aid. The cost of the UN operation is estimated at $148 million. The first recovery phase will cost $129 million, of which $99.6 has already been pledged, according to the United Nations. The world body estimates the second phase would cost a further $19 million. Thursday’s donor conference aims to secure full funding for both phases, the UN said. The Safer’s 1.1 million barrels contain four times as much oil as that spilled in the 1989 Exxon Valdez disaster off Alaska, one of the world’s worst ecological catastrophes, according to the UN.
Technologies enable China's drilling rigs to go 10,000 meters deep - Energy conglomerate Sinopec has improved technologies to enable its drilling rigs to go extremely deep for oil and gas extraction, making China one of the few nations capable of drilling 10,000-meter-deep wells. China's largest petrochemical products supplier inaugurated the drilling of the deepest oil and gas well in Asia. The well being drilled, located at the edge of the Taklimakan Desert, is expected to register a depth of 9,472 meters, which is 620 meters plus more than the height of Mount Qomolangma. The landmark well is another example of China's advancement in ultra-deep well drilling technology. The drilling rig on the ultra-deep well is a real physical landmark as it weighs nearly 500 tonnes and is the height of a 20-story building. The gigantic machine can lift almost 600 tonnes, or 120 adult elephants.
Number of OPEC+ countries voluntary cut oil production from May - Philippine Canadian Inquirer Nationwide Filipino Newspaper— A number of countries participating in the OPEC+ agreement have voluntarily reduced their oil production beginning from May 1 and until the end of the year and the total oil output downfall is now estimated at 1.66 million barrels per day. The OPEC+ countries at the issue announced on April 2 voluntary reduction in oil output until 2024. Saudi Arabia has decided to reduce oil production by 500,000 barrels per day (bpd) from May until the end of 2023, while the UAE will reduce production by 144,000 bpd, Iraq – by 211,000 bpd, Kuwait – by 128,000 bpd, Oman – by 40,000 bpd, Algeria – by 48,000 bpd, Kazakhstan – by 78,000 bpd and Gabon – by 8,000 bpd. Russia’s Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak announced earlier in the year that Russia would extend a voluntary reduction in oil output of 500,000 barrels per day from the average February level until the end of 2023. On April 2, a number of OPEC+ nations announced a voluntary output reduction from May to the end of 2023. Decisions on the issue were confirmed following the meeting of the OPEC+ ministerial monitoring committee held on April 3. The total volume of voluntary oil output reduction was estimated at that time at 1.66 million barrels per day and the decision was made in addition to agreements enforced in November 2022 on reduction in output by 2 million barrels per day within the framework of the OPEC+ deal. (TASS)
OPEC Warns IEA On Further Undermining Oil Industry Investments -The Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has called on the International Energy Agency (IEA) not to further undermine the oil industry investments. OPEC’s Secretary-General, Haitham Al Ghais, said this in a statement obtained in Abuja on Thursday while responding to the latest comments by the IEA again criticising OPEC and OPEC+. Al Ghais said the finger pointing and misrepresenting OPEC and OPEC+ actions was counterproductive and blaming oil for inflation was erroneous and technically incorrect as there were many other factors causing inflation. Al Ghais reiterated that OPEC and OPEC+ were not targeting oil prices, with the focus being solely on market fundamentals and enabling vital oil industry investments that the world desperately required. “The IEA knows very well that there are a confluence of factors that impact markets. The knock-on effects of COVID-19, monetary policies, stock movements, algorithm trading, commodity trading advisors and SPR releases (coordinated or uncoordinated), geopolitics, among others. “The finger pointing and misrepresenting OPEC and OPEC+ actions is counterproductive and blaming oil for inflation is erroneous and technically incorrect as there are many other factors causing inflation. “Other energy markets have been far more volatile with oil markets less so, mainly due to the stabilising role of OPEC and the OPEC+ group”, he said. He said further said the IEA’s repeated calls to stop investing in oil could lead to future volatility. According to him, it is known that all data-driven outlooks envisage the need for more of this precious commodity to fuel global economic growth and prosperity in the decades to come, especially in the developing world.
Oil prices slide on Fed rate hike expectations, weaker China PMI - Oil prices fell on Monday as jitters over the prospect of the US Federal Reserve raising interest rates combined with weaker Chinese manufacturing data to erase earlier gains. Brent futures for July delivery were down 55 cents, or 0.7 per cent, at $79.78 a barrel at 0009GMT, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude lost 54 cents, also a 0.7 per cent drop,to trade at $76.23. US consumer spending was flat in March as an increase in outlays on services was offset by a decline in goods, but persistent strength in underlying inflation pressures could see the Federal Reserve raising interest rates again. "A hawkish tone from the Fed could put pressure on energy and metals," ANZ Research said in a client note. US economic growth slowed more than expected in the first quarter. An acceleration in consumer spending was offset by businesses liquidating inventories in anticipation of weaker demand later this year amid higher borrowing costs. Meanwhile China's manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) declined to 49.2 from 51.9 in March, official data showed on Sunday, slipping below the 50-point mark that separates expansion and contraction in activity on a monthly basis. "Investors remain cautious amid mixed economic signals. Brent crude has been tracking broader markets in recent sessions, with a slew of economic data creating more uncertainty about the outlook," ANZ's note said. On Friday, oil prices mostly rose over 2 per cent after energy firms posted positive earnings, and US data showed crude output was declining while fuel demand was growing. US crude production fell in February to 12.5 million barrels per day (bpd), its lowest since December. Fuel demand rose to nearly 20 million bpd, its highest since November, according to the Energy Information Administration (EIA). EIA data last week showed US crude oil and gasoline inventories fell more than expected as demand for the motor fuel picked up ahead of the peak summer driving season.
Oil extends loss into third week on concerns over China recovery - Oil fell to extend two weeks of losses after data from China reignited concerns about a patchy recovery in the world’s biggest crude importer. West Texas Intermediate accelerated losses Monday afternoon in low-volume trading. Futures opened lower this week after data released Sunday showed China’s manufacturing activity unexpectedly contracted. Meanwhile, JPMorgan Chase & Co. won its bid to acquire the bank in an emergency government-led intervention Monday, reigniting concerns over the stability of lenders and the nation’s overall economic health. “The nervous trade continues,” said Dennis Kissler, senior vice president of trading at BOK Financial Securities, on crude paring losses with rising SPX. “While the overall economic picture is looking a bit weaker, the true fundamentals for crude remain positive.” Hedge funds and money managers have turned deeply bearish on crude after prices swung sharply in April — surging to a 15-month high after OPEC and its allies announced an output cut, before giving up those gains amid a deteriorating outlook. With China on holiday through Wednesday, the focus will turn to whether major central banks including the Federal Reserve continue tightening rates. WTI for June delivery fell US$1.12 to settle at $75.66 a barrel in New York. Brent for July settlement declined 23 cents to settle at $79.31 a barrel.
Oil Slips as Traders Position Ahead of FOMC, ECB Meetings -- Oil futures nearest delivery softened in early trading Tuesday as investors positioned ahead of the beginning of a two-day policy meeting by the Federal Open Market Committee that is expected to deliver yet another quarter percentage point rate increase amid stubbornly high inflation and continued strength in the labor market. The rate hike itself is unlikely to move financial markets much, with over 96% of investors anticipating the FOMC to raise the federal funds rate to above 5% on Wednesday, according to CME Fed Watch Tool. However, the language of the FOMC policy statement and the follow-up conference from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell could be a major catalyst. Powell will likely signal interest rates would have to remain at elevated levels for an extended period and push back against market pricing of any rate cuts this year. Assuming the Fed raises rates by 0.25 percentage points this week, the market is currently pricing in a 34.6% chance of another rate hike in June and a 6.8% chance of a rate cut in June. The continued strength of the labor market and slower-than-expected moderation in inflation underscores the case for the Fed to continue raising interest rates to make sure inflation is indeed moving down to its 2% target. On the other hand, recent macroeconomic data showed the economy is clearly slowing at a sharp rate, down to just 1.1% for the first quarter from 2.6% in the final three months of 2022. For context, economists have expected US GDP growth to top 2% at the start of the year. Monday's economic data showed manufacturing sectors in the U.S. and China fell into contraction last month, reflecting depressed activity amid higher borrowing costs and trade tensions. In China, the manufacturing index fell into negative territory for the first time since the post-pandemic reopening late last year, while the expansion of the services sector also slowed. The decline in factory activity was mainly due to "insufficient market demand and the high base effect of a rapid recovery in manufacturing in the first quarter", according to Zhao Qinghe, a senior economist with China's National Bureau of Statistics. However, even the non-manufacturing index of activity in services and construction also softened to 56.4 from 58.2 in March but still showed an expansion. In its first official economic assessment since new leadership took over, Beijing said economic growth had got off to a good start, but also noted there are risks threatening the sustainability of the recovery. "The current economic improvement is mainly owing to recovery-driven growth, but the internal driving force is not strong, and demand is still insufficient," said a statement on Friday wrapping up a meeting of the Politburo. The uneven growth in China doesn't bode well for a bullish view on global oil demand this year that has been supported by expectations for China's post-COVID rebound. The International Energy Agency forecast world oil consumption will climb by 2 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2023 to a record 101.9 million bpd, buoyed by a resurgent China which will account for 90% of that growth. Despite these forecasts, diesel and gasoline markets in Asia have weakened significantly over the past month, with some refiners in the region cutting run rates as margins shrink and China's exports of refined products surge amid weak domestic demand. Near 7:45 a.m. EDT, NYMEX June West Texas Intermediate futures softened to $75.46 barrel (bbl), while the international crude benchmark ICE Brent for July delivery traded little changed near $79.15 bbl. NYMEX June RBOB futures retreated $0.0096 to $2.5408 gallon, and June ULSD futures edged lower to $2.3781 gallon.
The Oil Market Sold Off Sharply on Tuesday on Concerns Over the Economy The oil market sold off sharply on Tuesday on concerns over the economy amid discussions on ways to avoid a debt default and ahead of the Fed’s expected U.S. rate hike on Wednesday. The oil complex and the stocks indexes fell as the cost of insuring against a U.S. debt default reached new highs after the Treasury Secretary, Janet Yellen, said the government would likely be unable to meet all payment obligations by early June. The crude market, which posted a high of $76.11 in overnight trading, sold off sharply, breaching its previous lows and retraced more than 62% of its move from a low of $64.58 to a high of $83.38 as it posted a low of $71.42 ahead of the close. The market shrugged off the news that OPEC’s oil output fell in April as sanctions countries Russia and Iran continue to find outlets for their crude. The June WTI contract settled down $4 at $71.66 and the July Brent contract settled down $3.99 at $75.32. The product markets ended the session sharply lower, with the heating oil market settling down 9.31 cents at $2.2892 and the RB market settling down 11.47 cents at $2.4357. According to Refinitiv tracking, global diesel exports to Europe are expected to increase to 7.37 million tons in April, the highest since January. This week, Refinitiv is tracking 2.41 million tons of seaborne diesel exports to Europe. This is compared with 2.3 million tons scheduled a week ago, which fell to 1.47 million tons following delays, changes to orders and missing Russian barrels and of which 210,000 tons has yet to be fully discharged. Meanwhile, Northwest European gasoline exports so far in April stand at 1.39 million tons, down from 1.79 million tons exported in March. According to a Reuters survey, OPEC’s oil output fell in April due to a halt in some of Iraq's exports and delays to Nigerian shipments, adding to the impact of strong adherence by top producers to a supply cut deal by the wider OPEC+ alliance. OPEC produced 28.62 million bpd in April, down 190,000 bpd from March. Output is down more than 1 million bpd from September. OPEC’s quota bound members complied with 194% of pledged cuts in April, up from 173% in March. The OPEC+ group cut its output by 180,000 bpd in April to 24.22 million bpd, or about 1.2 million bpd below the target. This followed a 930,000 bpd shortfall in March. The largest decline of 200,000 bpd was in Iraq where companies have reduced output in the northern Kurdistan region following a halt to the export pipeline in March. Higher exports from southern Iraq limited the decline. The second largest decline of 100,000 bpd came from Nigeria, where Exxon declared force majeure on liftings at its terminals in the country following a labor dispute. OPEC’s Gulf producers Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and the UAE maintained high compliance with their targets under the OPEC+ deal, keeping output steady at 10.43 million bpd, 2.68 million bpd and 3.04 million bpd, respectively. According to a Bloomberg survey, OPEC’s oil output fell by 310,000 bpd to an average of 28.8 million bpd, the lowest level in almost a year. OPEC’s output fell as Iraq’s exports were reduced by a pipeline suspension and a labor strike cut shipments from Nigeria. Iran’s Oil Minister, Javad Owji, said Iranian oil production has surpassed 3 million bpd.
Oil Slumps 5% to Five-Week Low Amid US Debt Default Fears (Reuters) -Oil prices sank about 5% to a five-week low on Tuesday on concerns about the economy as U.S. politicians discuss ways to avoid a debt default and investors prepare for more rate hikes this week. Brent futures fell $3.99, or 5.0%, to settle at $75.32 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI) fell $4.00, or 5.3%, to end at $71.66. That was the lowest close for both benchmarks since March 24 and was also their biggest one-day percentage declines since early January. Oil prices and Wall Street's main indexes both fell after U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said the government could run out of money within a month. The White House said President Joe Biden would not negotiate over the debt ceiling during his meeting with four top congressional leaders on May 9, but he will discuss starting "a separate budget process." U.S. job openings fell for a third straight month in March and layoffs increased to the highest level in more than two years, suggesting some softening in the labor market that could aid the Federal Reserve's fight against inflation. "The U.S. economy continues to evolve in a manner consistent with a recession commencing later this year," analysts at Barclays said in a note. "The manufacturing sector is contracting, the consumer is struggling, ... There are broadening signs of cracks emerging within the labor market," Barclays said. Later this week, investors will look for market direction from expected interest rate hikes by central banks still fighting inflation. More hikes could slow economic growth and dent energy demand. The U.S. Federal Reserve is expected to increase interest rates by another 25 basis points on Wednesday. The European Central Bank is also expected to raise rates at its regular policy meeting on Thursday. "The ... action of central banks in their mission to tame elevated consumer and producer prices ... all cast a rather long shadow of doubt on prospects going forward," Concerns about diesel demand in recent months, meanwhile, has pressured U.S. heating oil futures to their lowest level since December 2021. "Oil basically has weakening prospects from the world’s two largest economies, China and the U.S., and if the macro backdrop deteriorates momentum selling could easily send prices below the $70 level," Over the weekend, data from China, the world's top crude importer, showed manufacturing activity fell unexpectedly in April. That was the first contraction in the manufacturing purchasing managers' index since December. On the supply side, Iran's oil production surpassed 3 million barrels per day (bpd), its oil minister said. The OPEC member, which has been under U.S. sanctions since 2018, pumped 2.4 million bpd on average in 2021. The market shrugged off news that the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries' output fell in April, as sanctioned countries Russia and Iran continued to find outlets for their crude. Meanwhile, U.S. crude stockpiles were forecast to have drawn down for a third week in a row for the first time since December, falling some 1.1 million barrels last week, according to analysts in a Reuters poll.
WTI Slides Below $70 on US Banking, Recession Fears -- New York Mercantile Exchange oil futures and Brent crude on the Intercontinental Exchange extended lower in pre-inventory trading Wednesday, with West Texas Intermediate sliding below $70 barrel (bbl) for the first time since late March after softer-than-expected macroeconomic data in the United States and elsewhere fueled fears of a deeper economic downturn this year, hurting demand for refined fuels. Oil's move lower comes despite the American Petroleum Institute reporting on Tuesday U.S. commercial crude oil inventories declined by 3.939 million bbl during the week ended April 28, compared with forecasts for a draw of 1.2 million bbl. Stocks at the Cushing, Oklahoma, tank farm -- the New York Mercantile Exchange delivery point for West Texas Intermediate futures -- rose 700,000 bbl. Further details of the report revealed gasoline inventory added 400,000 bbl as of April 28, missing an expected 1.0-million-bbl draw. API reported a decrease of 1.0 million bbl in distillate inventory versus an expected decline of 700,000 bbl. In financial markets, investors are bracing for yet another rate increase announcement from the U.S. Federal Reserve that concludes its two-day policy meeting at 1:30 p.m. EDT. Over 96% of investors anticipate the Fed to raise rates by a quarter percentage point today to a 5% to 5.25% range -- the highest level since 2007. The rate hike itself has been fully priced in by the markets but fears over the health of the U.S. banking sector, along with signs of a sharply slowing economy, have sent markets tumbling this week. Dow Jones Industrial fell as much as 450 points Tuesday and S&P 500 declined 1.3%, while tech-savvy Nasdaq Composite slid 1% on the session. More evidence of a sharply slowing economy can be found in the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey released Tuesday that showed employment openings declining to their lowest levels since April 2021 and layoffs jumping sharply in March. Job vacancies totaled 9.59 million for the month, down from 9.97 million in February and below the median estimate of 9.64 million. Quits, which are considered a measure of confidence in the ability to leave one's job and find another, declined by 129,000 to 3.85 million, the lowest level since May 2021. A separate report Tuesday revealed U.S. orders for manufactured goods in March grew 0.9%, falling below expectations of a 1.3% increase. Against this backdrop, investors will be looking for clues on whether the Fed will keep rates steady after the May 3 meeting, or if it will further tighten monetary policy to fight inflation. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will likely signal during his press conference Wednesday that interest rates would have to remain at elevated levels for an extended period and push back against market pricing of any rate cuts this year. Assuming the Fed raises rates by 0.25 percentage points this week, the market is currently pricing in a 34.6% chance of another rate hike in June and a 6.8% chance of a rate cut in June. Near 9 a.m. EDT, NYMEX June West Texas Intermediate futures dropped back to $69.44 bbl, down $2.30 bbl on the session, while the international crude benchmark ICE Brent for July delivery fell $2.23 to $73.07 bbl. NYMEX June RBOB futures retreated $0.0514 to $2.3854 gallon, and June ULSD futures declined to $2.2366 gallon, down $0.0526 gallon.
Oil Plunges To Most Oversold In Two Years Amid CTA Shorting Frenzy --One of the most popular mainstream explanations behind the recent plunge in oil, is that the price is dumping on expectations of a US - and global - recession (the slow rebound in China isn't helping) which will throttle oil demand and has turned investors even more bearish and caused refining margins to slump. There is just one problem with this "explanation": oil, as a spot commodity, doesn't trade based on discounting the future, but on supply and demand dynamics in the here and now, and unless one claims that the BEA has manipulated a deeply negative real GDP print into the latest +1.1% print (which translates into 5.1% nominal growth), there is no way that oil is currently seeing such a sharp drop in demand.Which leaves financial speculation as the other explanation.In a note from Goldman's commodities desk today, we read that "crude oil is taking the brunt of the 'macro' pain again to start the London session and while people point to the slightly softer ytd fundamentals out of the US / China inventories scanning quite high." The bank then goes on to note that we that "similar to the selloff in the middle of march most of this move is the result of positioning set up. Specifically, the US producer community was quite active following the OPEC 'surprise' cut.. and we are moving through producer strike levels in both WTI and Brent. Add to the mix 1) a top trade on the year has been short crude vol.. and 2) CTAs flipped from max short to nearly max long... and the reversal back down has been swift." And speaking of positioning, the Goldman desk also notes that RSI has been a good indicator of entry points on the previous sell-offs, and "we are getting closer" to where the CTAs get squeeze again: after all, as shown below, the 7-day RSI in oil as now approaching record lows!
WTI Extends Losses After Biden Admin Drains SPR By Most Since December - Oil prices are extending yesterday's ugly losses as faith in the 2023 growth rebound narrative falter. As Bloomberg reports, at the start of the year, leading industry figures from trading giant Trafigura to Goldman were predicting that rebounding Chinese demand and sanctions on Russia would squeeze supplies in the second half - propelling crude to $100 a barrel or higher.Now, traders are growing nervous about the danger of recession in the US and disappointed that China’s recovery isn’t displaying all the vigor they’d anticipated. Russia, despite vowing sharp production cuts in retaliation for sanctions over its attack on Ukraine, is showing only mixed signs of following through.
API: Crude -3.939mm (-3.30mm exp)
DOE:
- Crude -1.28mm (-3.30mm exp)
- Cushing +541k
- Gasoline +1.742mm
- Distillates -1.19mm
The official data confirmed another weekly draw for crude (but smaller than expected), Cushing stocks rose for the second straight week and Gasoline stocks unexpectedly rose. Distillates drew down for the 5th straight week... The Biden administration drained 2mm barrels from the SPR (the 5th straight week and largest drain since December). The SPR is now at it slowest since October 1983...The start of summer driving season may not deliver its typical boost to gasoline demand, depressing crack spreads. Travel bookings for summer are down through March, a sign that consumers may limit spending on travel and, consequently, gasoline in the summer. Fuel sales for the week of April 22 fell 3% vs. 2022 levels and a hefty 20% from 2019, according to data from OPIS.The so-called 'adjustment factor' was high and positive once again...
Oil falls 4%, extending losses after Fed rate hike (Reuters) -Oil prices fell 4% on Wednesday, extending steep losses from the previous session after the U.S. Federal Reserve raised interest rates and as investors fretted about the economy. Brent futures settled $2.99 lower, or 4%, to $72.33 a barrel, the global benchmark's lowest close since December 2021. Brent hit a session low of $71.70 a barrel, its lowest since March 20. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI) fell $3.06, or 4.3%, to $68.60. WTI's session low was $67.95 a barrel, lowest since March 24. A day earlier, both benchmarks fell 5%, their biggest daily percentage declines since early January. On Wednesday afternoon, the Fed raised interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point, pressuring oil prices as traders worried that slower economic growth could hit energy demand. But the Fed also signaled it may pause further increases, giving officials time to assess fallout from recent bank failures, wait for resolution of a political standoff over the U.S. debt ceiling and monitor inflation. Banking sector concerns returned to the spotlight on Monday after U.S. regulators seized First Republic, the third major U.S. institution to fail in two months, with JPMorgan Chase & Co agreeing to take $173 billion of the bank's loans, $30 billion of securities and $92 billion of deposits. "The Fed going into a pause mode should be very supportive for the price of oil," "The big question is whether or not we're going to have more shoes drop in the banking sector." The European Central Bank is also expected to raise rates at its policy meeting on Thursday. Also pressuring oil prices, government data showed U.S. gasoline inventories unexpectedly rose by 1.7 million barrels last week. Analysts polled by Reuters had expected a 1.2 million-barrel drop. "The most notable thing is that gasoline demand gave back all of the increases that we'd seen in previous weeks," U.S. crude inventories fell by 1.3 million barrels in the week, compared with forecasts for a 1.1 million-barrel drop. In China, data over the weekend showed April manufacturing activity fell unexpectedly in the world's largest energy consumer and top buyer of crude oil. Morgan Stanley lowered its forecast for Brent prices to $75 a barrel by year-end. "Downside risk to Russia's supply and upside risk to China's demand have largely played out and prospects for 2H tightness have weakened," the bank said in a note, referring to buoyant exports from Russia despite Western sanctions.
Oil Wobbles After Fed Signals Rate Pause Amid Soft Macros - Oil futures rebounded modestly from 16-month lows hit Wednesday after the Federal Open Market Committee signaled a pause in the current monetary policy cycle after hiking interest rates for the tenth consecutive time as the broader economy flashes signs of a deeper downturn, with the labor market cooling and consumer spending weakening. The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by a quarter percentage point Wednesday, in line with market expectations, to a 5%- 5.25% range but signaled its most aggressive rate-hiking campaign in decades may now be history. In a statement released after a two-day policy meeting, the FOMC replaced the previous guidance that "some additional policy firming (rate hikes) may be appropriate" to "the Committee will closely monitor incoming information, its rate hikes so far and the lags with which they affect the economy and inflation." Inflation and the labor market have shown some signs of cooling in recent weeks but probably not enough for the central bank to declare victory in fighting sticky price pressures. In a report released Wednesday, the Institute of Supply Management said prices paid by service providers increased by 0.1% in April as business activity expanded for the fourth straight month despite higher borrowing costs and tight credit conditions. Combining these developments with the ongoing crisis in U.S. regional banks, demand outlooks for refined fuels in the second half of the year continue to be downgraded. On Wednesday, the U.S. Energy Information Administration released its weekly inventory report, showing gasoline consumption declined by 9.4% to 8.6 million barrels per day (bpd) ahead of the peak summer driving season. As a result, gasoline stocks rose by 1.7 million barrels (bbl) to 222.9 million bbl, compared with forecasts for a 1.2-million-bbl drop. That's a headwind for the market because gasoline was starting to look like the bright spot in the oil complex. Demand for middle distillates climbed by a modest 144,000 bpd from to 3.872 million bpd, still 2.9% against the five-year average. Diesel consumption has remained below 4 million bpd each week so far this year except for two. Distillate stockpiles fell by 1.2 million bbl to 110.3 million bbl, the EIA report showed, compared with expectations for a 1.1-million-barrel drop. In the crude complex, commercial crude oil stockpiles fell for the third straight week through April 28, down by 1.3 million bbl last week to 459.6 million barrels, and are now about 2% below the five-year average, the EIA said. Markets have mostly expected crude stockpiles to fall by 1.2 million bbl from the prior week. The decline came despite a 2-million-barrel transfer of crude oil last week from the nation's Strategic Petroleum Reserve to the commercial side. Similar sales will continue through June, according to the Energy Department, which is conducting the transactions. Oil stored at the Cushing, Oklahoma, hub -- the delivery point for West Texas Intermediate, increased by 541,000 bbl from the previous week to 33.6 million bbl, the EIA said in its weekly report. U.S. crude oil production increased by 100,000 bpd from the previous week to 12.3 million bpd, according to the EIA. The crude draw was realized despite domestic refiners scaling back run rates to 90.7%, processing 98,000 bpd less than the previous week's average. Near 7:30 a.m. EDT, NYMEX June West Texas Intermediate futures traded little changed near $68.52 bbl, while the international crude benchmark ICE Brent for July delivery edged higher to $72.46 bbl. NYMEX June RBOB futures softened $0.0062 to $2.3159 gallon, and June ULSD futures traded little changed near $2.2314 gallon.
The Oil Market on Thursday Traded Higher After Reversing its Previous Losses The oil market on Thursday traded higher after reversing its previous losses in what appeared to be a technical rebound. On the opening, the market sold off sharply by almost $5 to a low of $63.64, the lowest level seen since December 2021. The mini-flash crash may have been caused by a large position liquidation amidst thin trading conditions. Unlike the usual sharp moves right on the opening, the market’s sharp selloff came in the fifth minute, with more than 3,000 June futures contracts trading. However, within the next minute the market had bounced back to $66 and continued to retrace its previous losses. The market seemed to have been supported on the European Central Bank deciding to slow the pace of its interest rate hikes. Also, Russia’s Deputy Prime Minister, Alexander Novak, said that Russia was abiding by its voluntary pledge to cut output by 500,000 bpd from February until the end of the year, although there are little signs of Russia actually cutting its output. The market traded to a high of $69.84 in afternoon trading. The June WTI contract settled down 4 cents at $68.56 and the July Brent contract settled up 17 cents at $72.50. The product markets ended the session slightly higher, with the heating oil market settling up 64 points at $2.2387 and the RB market settling up 38 cents at $2.3259. Bloomberg reported that while crude markets have suffered large losses, with WTI falling over $20 over the last three weeks, on concerns over the wider economy, real oil demand still looks strong enough to force a rebound in prices. China is importing a large number of cargoes as domestic travel rebounds and traders expect the country’s crude purchases to remain high in the next few months. Inventories are tightening around the world and should deplete even faster as Saudi Arabia and its OPEC+ allies implement new supply cuts. According to UBS Group AG, oil consumption continues to appear healthy and may increase further over the coming months. It advised clients to add long positions in Brent. The market’s strength is also reflected in the market’s backwardation, with Brent futures for immediate delivery commanding a premium over later months. According to the IEA, world oil demand remains on track to increase by 2 million bpd this year to 101.9 million bpd. Several analysts believe that should fundamentals deteriorate, Saudi Arabia and other OPEC+ producers are likely to intervene further to support prices. Iraq’s Oil Minister said on Wednesday, that Iraq is in the final stages of talks with Kurdish officials to resume crude oil exports from the semi-autonomous Kurdistan region. He outlined the agreement should be finalized “within a week or two weeks maximum” for the resumption of oil exports. More than 450,000 b/d of Kurdish exports have been suspended since March 25th. Kurdish officials though said the resumption in exports is due to a standoff between Baghdad and Turkey over the use of the pipeline. Bloomberg reported that the state oil company of Abu Dhabi, part of the United Arab Emirates, notified customers that it will reduce shipments of crude oil starting in May, in line with OPEC+’s surprise decision to tighten supplies. Adnoc will cut the volumes by 5% for all of its cargoes being shipped from May. That’s within the lower range of the operational tolerance rule for long-term contracts, under which the company has the ability to supply plus or minus 5% of monthly volumes. It’s the first sign yet that a member of the OPEC+ coalition is moving toward implementing the group’s production cuts of around 1.6 million bpd by July.
Saudi Arabia cuts Asia oil prices as energy market weakens | Energy – Brent crude futures jumped above $87 a barrel after the announcement, but are now back to $73 and down 9% this month, signaling how bearish investors have become. Riyadh: Saudi Arabia lowered oil prices for customers in its main market of Asia after futures slumped, with traders fretting about the health of the global economy. A softening US economy and continued fragility among its banks, as well as weak manufacturing data in China, have triggered a renewed fall in Brent and WTI futures. Refining margins have also sunk. State-controlled Saudi Aramco cut all official selling prices for Asia in June. The company’s key Arab Light grade was reduced to $2.55 a barrel above the regional benchmark, 25 cents less than the price for this month. A Bloomberg survey of refiners and traders from last week forecasted a slightly bigger drop of 45 cents. Aramco sells about 60 per cent of its crude shipments to Asia, most of them under long-term contracts, pricing for which is reviewed each month. China, Japan, South Korea and India are the biggest buyers. The company raised all prices for European customers and left most US grades unchanged. The kingdom is the world’s largest oil exporter and leads the OPEC+ group of producers along with Russia. Several members of the 23-nation alliance, including Riyadh, decided early last month to cut production by more than 1 million barrels a day, saying it was a “precautionary measure” to stabilize the market. Brent crude futures jumped above $87 a barrel after the announcement, but are now back to $73 and down 9 per cent this month, signaling how bearish investors have become. The next OPEC+ meeting is on June 3-4 and the group has decided to make it an in-person gathering rather than a virtual one. That signals the group’s resolve to stabilize oil markets and it may opt for another supply reduction, according to Helima Croft, head of commodity strategy at RBC Capital Markets. The company’s OSP decisions are often followed by other Gulf producers such as Iraq and Kuwait.
Oil Spikes After Strong US Jobs Report Eases Recession Fears - Oil futures nearest delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange and Brent crude traded on the Intercontinental Exchange rallied more than 4% on Friday after U.S. non-farm employment data showed job gains in April exceeded market consensus for the 13th month in a row, as the unemployment rate unexpectedly declined to a 52-year low 3.4%, defying efforts by the U.S. Federal Reserve to slow the red-hot labor market. U.S. employers added 253,000 new jobs last month, a slightly higher figure than 178,000 jobs expected by the economists and 165,000 positions opened in March, according to data released this morning by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. What's more surprising, the unemployment rate fell back to a multi-decade low 3.4%, while average wages unexpectedly accelerated, reflecting fresh inflationary pressures in the face of a slowing economy. Average hourly earnings rose at a significantly faster pace of 0.5% in April, up by 0.2% from the prior month. Fed officials closely monitor compensation metrics as strong pay gains have given Americans the ability to keep spending, exerting upward pressure on prices. Employment growth was once again broad-based, reflecting gains in professional and health care services followed by leisure and hospitality. The latest figures underscore the resilience of the labor market despite growing concerns about high interest rates, inflation and tightening credit conditions that are projected to hit the economy sometime in the second half of the year. That presents a unique set of challenges for the Federal Reserve that has been raising interest rates at the most aggressive clip in decades to slow the labor market and just this week signaled the end to its rate hiking campaign. Fed officials raised federal funds rates for the 10th consecutive time on Wednesday to a 5%- 5.25% target range - the highest level since September 2007. In a statement released after the rate decision, the Federal Reserve replaced previous guidance that "some additional policy firming (rate hikes) may be appropriate" to "the Committee will closely monitor incoming information, its rate hikes so far and the lags with which they affect the economy and inflation." At settlement, NYMEX June West Texas Intermediate futures advanced $2.78 to $71.34 bbl, while the international crude benchmark ICE Brent for July delivery rose to $75.30 bbl, up by $2.80 bbl on the session. NYMEX June RBOB futures firmed 5.31 cents to $2.3790 gallon, and June ULSD futures rose 7.60 cents to $2.3147 gallon.
Oil Prices Jump but Post Third Straight Weekly Fall on Economic Woes (Reuters) -Oil prices rose on Friday but fell for the third straight week after a sharp fall earlier this week ahead of benchmark interest rate rises and on concern that the U.S. banking crisis will slow the economy and sap fuel demand. Brent crude closed $2.80, or 3.9% higher, at $75.30 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate settled up $2.78, or 4.1%, at $71.34 after four days of declines that sent the contract to lows last seen in late 2021. The Brent benchmark finished the week with a decline of about 5.3%, while WTI plunged 7.1%, even after the rebound on Friday. Both benchmarks were down for three weeks in a row for the first time since November. "Crude is trying to reverse the recent washout in prices triggered by higher interest rates and recession fears mostly in the banking sector," said Dennis Kissler, senior vice president of trading at BOK Financial. For some analysts, fundamentals in the physical market are stronger than the futures market would indicate. "Rather than underlying fundamentals, the selling frenzy over the past week has been driven by worries about demand linked to recession risks and the strain in the U.S. banking sector," "The upshot is that there is a big disconnect between oil balances and oil prices." Commerzbank analysts noted oil demand concerns were overblown and expect a price correction upward in coming weeks. Equities, which often move in tandem with oil prices, also rose. A better-than-expected jobs report helped ease some fears of an imminent economic downturn, spurred in part by renewed banking fears. Investors also broadly expect the Fed to pause rate hikes at its June policy meeting. In China, however, factory activity contracted unexpectedly in April as orders fell and poor domestic demand dragged on the sprawling manufacturing sector. However, expectations of potential supply cuts at the next meeting of the OPEC+ producer group in June have provided some price support, said Kelvin Wong, a senior market analyst at OANDA in Singapore. U.S. oil rig count, an indicator of future output, fell by 3 to 588 this week, data from oil services firm Baker Hughes showed.
Watch- Iran Seizes 2nd Foreign Crude Tanker In Under A Week: Iran has seized a second foreign tanker in under a week, this time in the strategic Strait of Hormuz - a key transit point of much of the world's global oil - in a daring Wednesday naval operation carried out by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).The captured Panamanian-flagged oil tanker has been identified by the US Navy's 5th Fleet as the Niovi. Some dozen IRGC fast boats could be seen swarming the vessel in footage published by the US military.The US Navy described that the Iranian ships "forced the oil tanker to reverse course and head toward Iranian territorial waters off the coast of Bandar Abbas, Iran.""Iran’s actions are contrary to international law and disruptive to regional security and stability,” the 5th Fleet statement said. "Iran’s continued harassment of vessels and interference with navigational rights in regional waters are unwarranted, irresponsible and a present threat to maritime security and the global economy."According to tanker records detailed in the Associated Press, "Shipping registries show the Niovi as managed by Smart Tankers of Piraeus, Greece."
Al-Qaeda in Yemen Slams Saudi-Iran Normalization Deal - According to a report from The New Arab, the leader of the Yemen-based al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) has slammed Saudi Arabia for its normalization deal with Iran.In a video released earlier this week, AQAP head Khalid Batarfi said Riyadh was conceding defeat in Yemen by normalizing with Iran. Batarfi claimed AQAP is the only force left fighting for Sunnis in Yemen against the Houthis, who are Zaydi Shias.The US-backed Saudi-led coalition in Yemen has fought on the same side as AQAP against the Houthis, and weapons sold to the Saudis and the UAE have ended up in the hands of the terror group in Yemen.A report from The Associated Press in 2018 found that the Saudi-UAE coalition hired al-Qaeda members to help fight against the Houthis. The AP report said: “Coalition-backed militias actively recruit al-Qaeda militants, or those who were recently members, because they’re considered exceptional fighters.”Before the Obama administration backed the coalition against the Houthis in March 2015, the US was cooperating with the Houthis against AQAP. In January 2015, The Wall Street Journal reported that the US had “forged ties” with the Houthis as part of a strategy to “maintain its fight against a key branch of al-Qaeda.”AQAP’s complaints about the Saudi-Iran normalization deal come as a peace deal between Riyadh and the Houthis seem near. The warring sides have been engaged in Omani-mediated talks and recently exchanged thousands of prisoners.
US Says Russian Missile Almost Hit US MQ-9 Drone Over Syria - A US MQ-9 Reaper drone was fired at by a Russian SA-22 Pantsir air defense system in Syria back in November, a US official told Air & Space Forces Magazine.The incident was first revealed by one of the Pentagon documents allegedly leaked by Jack Teixeira. The US official disclosed new information about the incident, saying the Russian missile came within 40 feet of the MQ-9 and damaged the drone when the warhead exploded.The details of the incident are not clear. It’s unknown if Russia intentionally fired on the drone or knew if it was a US aircraft. According to the leaked document, the missile was fired from the Qamishili Airfield in northeast Syria, an area where both the US and Russian militaries have a presence.Col. Joe Buccino, a spokesman for US Central Command, told The War Zonethat the US and Russian militaries discussed the incident through deconfliction lines. “After the incident, CENTCOM officials contacted the Russian deconfliction center about the matter,” he said.Buccino added that such incidents in Syria are “not routine.” A US MQ-9 Reaper Drone had another encounter with Russia over the Black Sea in March, which led to the downing of the drone after it was intercepted by Russian aircraft.
Civilian Reported Killed in US Drone Strike in Northwest Syria - -- US Central Command said Wednesday that it launched an airstrike in northwest Syria that killed an al-Qaeda leader but did not name the target or release other details of the strike, and local reports suggest a civilian was killed.“At 11:42 a.m. local time on May 3rd, US Central Command forces conducted a unilateral strike in Northwest Syria targeting a senior Al Qaeda leader,”CENTCOM said in a statement.According to the UK-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR), a drone strike hit a poultry farm in the area and killed one person that hasn’t yet been identified.Local sources later told the SOHR that a 60-year-old sheep herder not affiliated with any military faction was killed, suggesting the strike killed a civilian. CENTCOM said it would provide more information on the strike “as operational details become available.”US drone strikes have a history of harming civilians, and the Pentagon is notorious for undercounting or lying about civilian casualties.
China Is Back: Record 19.7 Million Railway Trips Made On First Day Of May Day Holiday As Retail Sales Soar 20% - China's "zero covid" nightmare is now long forgotten, and the long-suffering local population is finally emerging from the ashes of home lockdowns and celebrating its freedom by traveling more than ever. According to the China Railway Group, the country tourism and consumer activities rose sharply on the first day of the five-day Labor Day holiday, as residents rushed to travel and spend after three years of Covid-19 restrictions finally ended. As Bloomberg reports, some 19.7 million railway trips were made across the country on Saturday, the highest on record for a single day. This is just the start: the railway operator expects traffic to jump to a record 120 million passengers for the extended holiday period, up 20% from the same period in 2019, before the pandemic struck. Meanwhile, for those lamenting the lack of a Chinese economic rebound, just wait: shoppers were out in force on Saturday too, with major retail and catering companies seeing sales expand 21% from a year ago, according to Ministry of Commerce data cited by state broadcaster CCTV. Key food chains saw a 37% revenue boost, clothing sales climbed 21% while sales of jewellery, cigarettes and alcohol all rose 17%. The bottom line: China is not only traveling, it is spending, and the long-overdue economic bounce is about to hit with a vengeance. According to Bloomberg, many residents are making their first trips since the pandemic after the authorities scrapped Covid-19 curbs in December, fuelling a rapid rebound in consumption and domestic tourism.In Beijing, where some of the strictest travel curbs were imposed during the pandemic, over 1.4 million trips were made in and out of the city’s railway stations on Saturday. That was a surge of 1,485% from 2022, and 27 per cent from 2019, according to the Beijing Municipal Commission of Transport. Finally, flights coming in and out of Beijing also saw passenger numbers soar 1,594% from 2022, and 14% from 2019, one year before covid shut down the local economy.
Jack Ma, the billionaire co-founder of Alibaba who disappeared from public life in 2020, has taken up a teaching role in Japan -- Jack Ma, the cofounder of Alibaba, has taken up a teaching position in Japan, one of the first public roles he has assumed since disappearing from the spotlight in 2020.In his new role, Ma, who was once China's richest man, is expected to conduct research on sustainable agriculture and food production, Tokyo College said in an announcement on Monday.The announcement says that Ma will also "share his rich experience and pioneering knowledge on entrepreneurship, corporate management and innovation" in seminars at the college, which is run by the University of Tokyo.Ma's term as a visiting professor starts on May 1. It marks the 58-year-old's return to teaching after his retirement from Alibaba in September 2019. Ma was an English teacher for several years before he cofounded Alibaba.Ma said in May 2019 that he would go back to teaching after retiring from Alibaba in September of the same year. At the time, he said he was returning to his roots because of his love for the profession.Ma's return to a public-facing role comes more than two years after he angered Chinese authorities in October 2020 during a speech in which he criticized China's financial-regulatory system and claimed that Chinese banks were operating with a "pawnshop" mentality.
Russian Freight Train Derails In Sabotage Attack As Airstrikes Pummel Ukraine For 2nd Day - An apparent sabotage attack with an "explosive device" has resulted in a disastrous train derailment in the Russian region of Byransk which borders Ukraine. "An unidentified explosive device went off, as a result of which a locomotive of a freight train derailed," Bryansk governor Alexander Bogomaz announced on Telegram Monday. The governor further confirmed there were no casualties and that the train struck the device "on the 136th kilometer" of the railroad between regional hub Bryansk and the town of Unecha, as cited in AFP. The Bryansk region near Ukraine has been site of frequent cross-border attacks throughout the conflict. The latest was just the day prior, with projectiles fire from Ukraine killing four people in a Russian village which lies just 10km from the border. Bogomaz says the FSB security service has opened a criminal case looking into the act of "sabotage". Meanwhile Monday witnessed the second consecutive day of large-scale Russian airstrikes across mainly central Ukraine. Central Dnipropetrovsk saw the heaviest bombardment, resulting in at least 34 people wounded - among them children - according to regional Ukrainian authorities. "There are already 34 wounded due to a missile attack on the Pavlograd district," head of the Dnipropetrovsk region Sergiy Lysak said in a press statement.
Russia Says Ukraine Tried to Kill Putin in a Kremlin Drone Attack. --On May 3, two armed drones plummeted toward the Kremlin. At least one exploded directly above the dome of the Kremlin Senate, causing shrapnel to rain down on the home of Russian President Vladimir Putin.Russian reports state that both drones were shot down by air defenses, but this can’t be visually confirmed from available footage.One video of the attack shows a fixed-wing drone gliding past the dome of the Senate Palace building toward a target beyond before exploding in a cloud of flaming debris. Two individuals can be seen climbing up the stairs near the dome at the moment of the attack.Formerly the home of the Tsar’s Governing Senate, the triangular Senate Palace now houses Russia’s presidential administration.No one was reported injured, and Putin was apparently not even present at the time of the attack, residing instead at Novo-Ogoryovo.A separate drone attack on a Russian oil storage facility in Krasnodar does appear to have caused some damage.But even an ineffectual attack on Moscow’s “fortress within a city” is a shock, and raises questions about the Russian military’s ability to protect Moscow’s airspace—especially less than a week before the May 9 Victory Day military parade, which for now will proceed as scheduled. However, there’s now a blanket ban on operating any drones in the Moscow area.
Kremlin Says Putin Survived Overnight Assassination Attempt -The Russian presidential administration said Wednesday that the Kremlin was attacked by drones overnight in an attempt on President Vladimir Putin’s life. Moscow residents had reported hearing two explosions behind Kremlin walls shortly after 2 a.m. local time, after which the lights went out. Footage shared by residents in a local Telegram channel captured the incident, as smoke was seen filling the sky above the Kremlin. Videos also appeared to show part of the Kremlin on fire. Now, authorities say it was a brazen attack by Ukraine using two drones, both of which they say have been destroyed. No injuries were reported, according to the TASS news agency. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Putin was not at the presidential residence at the time. The Kremlin, describing the incident as a “planned terrorist attack” and “assassination attempt on the president of Russia,” is now threatening to take “retaliatory measures.” A spokesman for Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has denied that the country was behind any attack on the Kremlin and accused Moscow of deliberately “escalating the situation ahead of May 9,” when Russia routinely flaunts its military prowess to mark Victory Day.
Kremlin drone attack: Kremlin drone: Zelensky denies Ukraine attacked Putin or Moscow - Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky has denied his country carried out an alleged drone attack on the Kremlin, which Russia says was an attempt on President Vladimir Putin's life. "We don't attack Putin or Moscow. We fight on our territory. We are defending our villages and cities," he said, speaking on a visit to Finland. The Russian president's office said defences downed two drones overnight. It threatened to retaliate when and where it considered necessary. Unverified footage circulating online shows smoke rising over the Kremlin - a large government complex in central Moscow - early on Wednesday. A second video shows a small explosion above the site's Senate building, while two men appear to clamber up the dome. The Russian presidency said Ukraine had attempted a strike on Mr Putin's residence in the Kremlin and described it as "a planned terrorist act and an assassination attempt on the president". Officials said two drones targeting the complex had been disabled using electronic radar assets, adding that President Putin had not been in the complex at the time of the alleged attack. But Ukraine has said the Russian accusations are merely a pretext for massive attacks on its territory and the US says it is treating the Russian claims with a lot of caution.
Russia’s Medvedev Calls for 'Elimination' Of Zelensky & 'His Clique' After Drone Attack -- Outspoken former Russian president and current deputy chairman of the security council Dmitry Medvedev said on Wednesday in a post on social media that the overnight drone attack on the Kremlin has left Moscow with no options but to "eliminate" Ukrainian President Zelensky and his "clique". Essentially he's calling for a 'decapitation' strike of the government in Kiev. As for Zelensky, he's vehemently denied his government was behind the attack, which Russia is asserting was an assassination attempt targeting Putin.Zelensky, in Finland, denies Ukraine attacked the Kremlin. “We don’t attack Putin or Moscow. We fight on our territory. ... We don’t have enough, you know, weapons for this.” “We didn’t attack Putin. We leave it to the tribunal.” pic.twitter.com/PsdtR4wUIW And US Secretary of State Antony Blinken weighed in, casting doubt on Russia's narrative:“I can’t in any way validate them,” said Blinken, who was at an event with the Post to preview the 2023 World Press Freedom Index. “We simply don’t know. Second, I would take anything coming out of the Kremlin with a very large shaker of salt.”Meanwhile, more interesting videos - and closer up showing the inbound drone - continue to emerge...What kind of state-of-the-art air defenses took down the drones that flew at the Kremlin last night? Footage of one explosion shows two people atop the Kremlin Senate building, allegedly armed with “weaponry to destroy UAVs.” Eat your heart out, Elon Musk. https://t.co/u28MVdBS4L pic.twitter.com/y1Esn30zlg Here is the host of RT's Cross Talk suggesting a huge escalation in the Russian response is coming: Drone strikes on the Kremlin: Well Kiev and its western backers certainly have Moscow’s attention. The Kiev regime will truly regret this attention. Civilian leadership is fair game now.
Top Russian MP calls for use of weapons ‘capable of destroying Kiev regime’ — Senior Russian lawmaker Vyacheslav Volodin has called on Moscow to use any weapons necessary to remove the “Nazi regime” in Kiev. The comments followed a failed Ukrainian drone attack on the Kremlin that allegedly targeted President Vladimir Putin in the early hours of Wednesday morning. “The terrorist act against the president is an attack on Russia,” Volodin, who serves as State Duma chairman, said in a Telegram post. “[Vladimir] Zelensky, who gave orders to carry out terrorist attacks, now stands on a par with other international terrorists,” he added, referring to the Ukrainian president. Volodin claimed that the government in Kiev is as dangerous as groups such as Al-Qaeda and Islamic State (IS, formerly ISIS).He further alleged that Ukraine’s “criminal methods” have become evident to the entire world, accusing it of tactics including nuclear blackmail, the assassination of public and political figures, the sabotage of civilian infrastructure, and attempts on Putin’s life.“The Kiev terrorist regime, having seized an entire state, threatens the security of Russia, Europe, and the whole world,” the Duma official added. He insisted that Western nations which are pumping Zelensky’s government with weapons are now “direct accomplices” to terrorist activities.Volodin proclaimed that there “can be no negotiations with the Zelensky regime” following the attempted attack on the Kremlin, and vowed that Russian lawmakers will “demand the use of weapons capable of stopping and destroying the Kiev terrorist regime.”The message comes after Ukraine allegedly launched two drone attacks intended to strike Putin’s Kremlin residence, as reported by the Russian president’s office on Wednesday. The aircraft were downed using electronic warfare measures and did not cause any casualties or damage. Putin was unharmed and was not present in the Kremlin at the time of the incident.
Greenwald- Ukraine's Conscript Army Being Used By West As Cannon Fodder - Journalist Glenn Greenwald issued some blunt and apt statements on the nature of the Ukraine war and Washington's constant stoking of conflict, as opposed to US officials exploring serious avenues for peace. Below is his epic Twitter thread Monday in response to once again being accused of supposedly "aping" pro-Kremlin talking points [emphasis ours]...No, the biggest victims of the war in Ukraine are the tens of thousands of Ukrainian men forced against their will as conscripts to serve as cannon fodder so that empty and weak Western losers like you can feel a sense of purpose and strength as you cheer from a safe distance.No, the biggest victims of the war in Ukraine are the tens of thousands of Ukrainian men forced against their will as conscripts to serve as cannon fodder so that empty and weak Western losers like you can feel a sense of purpose and strength as you cheer from a safe distance. https://t.co/sAi6bDWFtL — Glenn Greenwald (@ggreenwald) May 1, 2023 Whenever it comes to wars people get to cheer without fighting in them -- call it the Bill Kristol Syndrome -- you can never underestimate the ample psychological benefits they get from feeling strong and tough but never getting near the fight.:For those who love to cheer the war in Ukraine but seem to have no idea what it's actually about, here's just the latest instance in which Zelensky had to increase punishments for desertion because of how unwilling much of the conscript army is to fight: Zelensky knew there were way too few Ukrainian men willing to fight the Russian Army. That's why he begged Westerners who "support Ukraine" to come help fight Russia.But so few did, so they closed the border and used unwilling conscripts...
Ukraine Vows It Won't Give Up Bakhmut - Ukraine’s military on Tuesday vowed to continue defending Bakhmut as Russian officials claim Russian forces now control nearly 90% of the eastern Donbas city.Gen. Oleksandr Syrskyi, the commander of Ukraine’s ground forces, made the pledge while visiting troops on the frontlines in Bakhmut. “We will continue, despite all the forecasts and advice, to hold Bakhmut, destroying Wagner and other most combat-capable units of the Russian army,” he said.After his trip to the frontline, Syrskyi said in a statement that “together with the commanders, we have made a number of necessary decisions aimed at ensuring the effective defense and inflicting maximum losses on the enemy.”Syrskyi’s vow came as Russian officials continue to claim gains in Bakhmut and say Russian forces control nearly 90% of the city. “Today, on May 2, Wagner PMC units advanced up to 160 meters in various directions in the city of Bakhmut,” Yevgeny Prigozhin, the head of the mercenary outfit Wagner, wrote on Telegram Tuesday.
Ukraine Says Waiting for Better Weather for Spring Counteroffensive - Ukraine is waiting for better weather before it launches its long-awaited spring counteroffensive, the Ukrainian ambassador to the UK told Sky Newson Tuesday.Ambassador Vadim Pristayko said heavy tanks that Ukraine received from its Western backers cannot move in the mud. “Obviously, the weather is not allowing so far the heavy tanks to move in the Ukrainian usual spring mud,” he said.Pristayko also said Kyiv does not want to let the Russians know when the counteroffensive will be launched. “So the weather is playing a key part … then we’re not, you know, telling them an exact day, an exact direction,” he said.The counteroffensive is expected to focus on Russia’s land bridge to Crimea in the southern Kherson and Zaporizhzhia oblasts. But there are increasing doubts among Kyiv’s Western backers that a Ukrainian offensive will be successful.
Teenage boy kills 8 children, guard at school in Belgrade - — A teenage boy opened fire at a school in Serbia’s capital Wednesday, killing eight children and a school guard, police said. Six more children and a teacher were injured and hospitalized. Police identified the shooter by his initials, K.K., and said he had opened fire with his father’s gun. He was arrested in the school yard, police said. A statement identified him as a student at the school in central Belgrade who was born in 2009. Police said they received a call about the shooting at the Vladislav Ribnikar primary school around 8:40 a.m. Primary schools in Serbia have eight grades, starting with first grade. “I was able to hear the shooting. It was non-stop,” a student who was in a sports class downstairs when the gunfire erupted. “I didn’t know what was happening. We were receiving some messages on the phone.” Unlike in the United States, mass shootings in Serbia and in the wider Balkan region are extremely rare; none were reported at schools in recent years. In the last mass shooting, a Balkan war veteran in 2013 killed 13 people in a central Serbian village. Experts, however, have repeatedly warned of the number of weapons left over in the country after the wars of the 1990s. They also note that decades-long instability stemming from the conflicts as well as the ongoing economic hardship could trigger such outbursts. Local media footage from the scene showed commotion outside the school as police removed the suspect, whose head was covered as officers led him to a car parked in the street. The student who heard the shooting, who was identified only by her initials, E.M., because of her age, described the suspect as a “quiet guy” who “looked nice.” “He was having good grades, but we didn’t know much about him,” the student added. “He was not so open with everybody. Surely i wasn’t expecting this to happen. ” “He (the shooter) fired first at the teacher and then the children who ducked under the desks,” Milan Milosevic quoted his daughter as saying. “She said he was a quiet boy and a good student.” Police sealed off the blocks around the school, in the center of Belgrade.
Police: Serbia school shooter had list of students to target (AP) — A 13-year-old who opened fire Wednesday at his school in Serbia's capital drew sketches of classrooms and made a list of children he intended to target in a meticulously planned attack, police said. He killed eight fellow students and a guard before calling the police and being arrested.Mass shootings are extremely rare in the Balkan region, although Serbia is awash in guns left over from the wars of the 1990s. No mass shootings have been reported at Serbian schools in recent years.The shooter killed a school guard and then three students in a hallway of the Vladislav Ribnikar school in central Belgrade, according to senior police official Veselin Milic. He then entered a history classroom close to the school entrance and opened fire again, Milic said. Seven girls and one boy were killed, he said.The victims included a girl with French citizenship, French Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Anne-Claire Legendre said in a statement. She provided no other details.Ljiljana Radicevic told The Associated Press that her granddaughter was also killed in the shooting. Ana was near the school entrance when the assailant shot the school guard, “and then he shot at my Ana,” Radicevic said. “As soon as she did not answer, I knew it was over.” Radicevic did not provide Ana’s full name or age.Six children and a teacher were also hospitalized. Two children remained in serious condition after hourslong surgeries, doctors said later Wednesday.The assailant called police himself after the shooting was over. Authorities also received a call reporting the shooting two minutes earlier.
US in Talks on Establishing Military Bases in Finland - The US and Finland are working out a deal that would allow the US to establish a military presence in the Nordic country, as Helsinki is now a member of NATO.According to Newsweek, Finnish Foreign Ministry official Mikael Antell confirmed the two nations are negotiating a Defense Cooperation Agreement that may allow for the construction of significant military infrastructure on Finnish soil.The potential agreement would not include nuclear weapons, although Finnish officials have previously not ruled out hosting nukes. The US has nuclear weapons stationed in five NATO countries under the alliance’s nuclear sharing program but not in any nations that became members after the end of the Cold War.Antell said the potential DCA “enables troops to enter the country, stay on the ground, the pre-storage of material and possible infrastructure investments through the funds granted by the US Congress to the Pentagon.”The US and Finland have been in talks on the DCA since last fall, and discussions on the deal took place in Helsinki last week. “The agreement also defines the facilities and areas where the cooperation would be focused,” Antell said. “They are basically military areas and garrisons. In principle, there can be more than one, but the discussions are still open in this regard.”Finland shares an over 800-mile border with Russia, and its ascension into NATO means the region will become further militarized. Moscow has plans to beef up its military presence near the border in western Russia and has said it will take more steps to respond to the expansion of NATO infrastructure in Finland.
Workers Who Have Occupied an Italian Factory for Two Years Are Getting Close to Owning It Themselves - For three years workers at the former automotive parts factory, GKN Florence, were in limbo. According to Investigative Reporting Project Italy, in 2018 GKN was purchased by the British hedge fund Melrose, which went about enacting its motto of “buy, improve, sell.” And in 2021 it was preparing to do just that when it abruptly announced the termination of the entire workforce. Instead the workers occupied the factory and have been there ever since. Since the occupation, Italian labor judges have condemned GKN for its anti-union practices (in Italy a negotiated settlement is supposed to precede a business closure) for a lack of dialogue in the firings, and cases are open at the Ministry of Enterprise and Made in Italy, but importantly the workers did not rely on the government. While workers are still demanding back pay, they’re also now trying to make “ex-GKN” a community cooperative factory – one that produces photovoltaic panels and batteries that do not involve the use of rare earths, as well as a cargo-bike painted in the same purple as the Florence soccer team. The idea is that the factory will serve the community and potentially the surrounding region. Francesca Gabbriellini and Giacomo Gabbuti write at Jacobin: Parallel to the technical issues surrounding industrial plans and labor organization, the work groups focused on the issue of ownership structure, including by studying the possibility of a worker buyout. In Italy such operations are regulated by the Marcora Law of 1985, which provides for public funds to safeguard workers affected by attempts at industrial relocation or liquidation and who intend to take over ownership in a cooperative structure. Usually, with such processes, the startup capital is built up through workers investing their severance pay. But in the GKN case, the idea is that local supporters should play a leading role in reactivating production, as in the struggle itself. Thus the idea of the popular shareholder campaign was born, and dialogues began with Banca Etica (an Italian ethical finance body, which has been in solidarity with the GKN struggle since the opening of the Resistance Fund) and other such institutions. The first steps are promising as they’re blowing past initial fundraising targets. In the second phase, to begin this summer, ex-GKN will launch an “equity crowdfunding” from small, medium and large investments. The group says “the workers are directly involved in the management of the new production project.” Additionally, the plan is to include all “public and private investors, representatives of the region and all participants in the equity crowdfunding” on the board of the cooperative.
Just in Time for ECB Rate-Hike Meeting: Eurozone Services Inflation Spikes to New Record. Overall Inflation Re-Accelerates -- byWolf Richter - In the 20 countries that now use the euro, the annual rate of inflation in services rose to 5.2% in April, another record in the data going back to 1997, according to the preliminary data released by Eurostat today. Another nasty surprise, another sign that inflation has now shifted deeply into the economy in a fundamental way, despite sharp price drops of energy goods and some durable goods. Services inflation is the biggie. The majority of what consumer spend their money on goes to services. They include healthcare, education, housing, insurance, telecommunications, streaming, subscriptions, air fares and lodging, restaurant meals, repairs, cleaning, financial and legal services, haircuts, etc. Inflation is difficult to control once it reaches services. This is made worse because a number of these services are essentials that consumers cannot dodge or substitute or go without. The biggest cost component for many services are wages, which have been increasing in the Eurozone. Service providers are now able to pass these increased costs to consumers via higher prices, and in this manner feed into services inflation. The “core” Consumer Price Index without energy – excludes energy products, such as gasoline, diesel, electricity, natural gas piped to the home, heating oil, etc. – at 7.5%, was a tad off its monstrous record in the prior month (7.9%), and was still nearly four times as high as the ECB’s target of 2%. This “core” CPI without energy and the services CPI have been invoked repeatedly by ECB President Christine Lagarde and ECB governors as reason for continued rate hikes. The wage component of services inflation has reached a point where Lagarde has gingerly mentioned the connection as a worrisome trend. The overall CPI rate re-accelerated to 7.0% in April compared to a year ago (from 6.9% in March). On a monthly basis, the overall CPI surged 0.7% in April from March, another nasty surprise. The plunge in energy prices last year and early this year, that pushed down the overall CPI, seems to have largely bottomed out. Food inflation slowed to a still red-hot 13.6% (from 15.5% in the prior month). Overall CPI Inflation in the Eurozone began surging in early 2021, a year before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. In October 2021, months before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the Eurozone inflation rate surpassed prior records. This came after years of reckless money printing and interest-rate repression – the Eurozone was part of the negative-interest-rate-policy absurdity. All this was amplified during the pandemic by large-scale government deficit spending directly into the consumer economy. And voilà . The sharp drop in the overall CPI from the peak of 10.6% in October was driven mostly by the collapse in energy prices that now seems to have bottomed out:
The Collapse in Operational Capabilities in the West and Some Knock-On Effects by Yves Smith --Why do we have such weak and poorly performing institutions and leaders in the West, even by the standards of recent history? Big developments are almost never mono-causal, so forgive me for not having a theory of everything on this critically important topic. Today we’ll focus on the hollowing out of operational capabilities, aka crapification on an institutional level, as one major contributor. This is a very large topic, so forgive this first stab as incomplete.The norm for humanity is to lurch from crisis to crisis and too often merely surviving disasters as opposed to responding well. We’ve had the modern era luxury of believing otherwise. The nearly 100 years of absence of large-scale wars in Europe from 1815 to 1914 was a historical anomaly, as has been the period from 1945 until Covid, where despite many regional conflicts (with the US too often precipitating the war), rich economies have enjoyed the boon of stability. And speaking of Covid, industrial-revolution generated increases in income led to better diet and sanitation, and then seminal medical advances, namely antibiotics and vaccines. Plague and pestilence seemed things of the past for large swathes of the world. Now the Four Horsemen have saddled up, with overarching “end of life as we know it” threats in the form of the US looking way too likely to consider using tactical nukes to bolster its weak position in Great Power conflicts it is bizarrely fomenting, along with of climate change. Yet despite the apparent sophistication of our systems, such as greater speed and ease of execution of all manner of knowledge work, from record keeping to document preparation to communication to our magic Internet making some types of information acquisition trivially easy, many of us experience symptoms of breakdown in our daily lives and as we and others have chronicled, on a macro level now, painfully visible in such fiascoes as haphazard and halfhearted responses to climate change to the US rapidly accelerating the loss of its hegemonic position through hare-brained strategies towards Russia and China.But the current rot goes well beyond institutions stuck in very big ruts. That problem is compounded by astonishingly weak leadership almost everywhere you look… A different pathology seems to be a lack of comprehension of the scale of problems. It’s hard to know if this comes about due to a lack of imagination or pervasive acculturation to superficial takes. Climate change is a dramatic example. Readers may have noticed I take great umbrage at Green New Deal hopium, which makes it seem as if all we need to do is transition to new energy sources and not much will have to change.
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