week ending Jun 24

Fed’s Powell Says Higher Interest Rates Needed to Curb Inflation -- Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said policymakers expect interest rates will need to move higher to reduce US growth to below its long-term trend and contain price pressures, with the timing of additional increases based on incoming data. “My colleagues and I understand the hardship that high inflation is causing, and we remain strongly committed to bringing inflation back down to our 2% goal,” Powell said Wednesday in prepared remarks to be delivered to the House Financial Services Committee. “We will continue to make our decisions meeting by meeting, based on the totality of incoming data and their implications for the outlook for economic activity and inflation, as well as the balance of risks.” The Federal Open Market Committee paused its series of interest-rate hikes last week for the first time in 15 months, leaving rates in a range of 5% to 5.25%. But Fed officials estimated rates would rise to 5.6% by the end of the year, according to their median projection, implying two additional quarter-point hikes following surprisingly persistent inflation and labor-market strength. “Nearly all FOMC participants expect that it will be appropriate to raise interest rates somewhat further by the end of the year,” Powell said. “Reducing inflation is likely to require a period of below-trend growth and some softening of labor market conditions.” Powell is set to appear on Capitol Hill this week for his semi-annual monetary policy testimony, the first time the Fed chief will answer questions from Congress in public since early March. His prepared comments largely echoed his remarks at his post-meeting press conference last week, where he said the committee felt it was appropriate to moderate the pace of rate increases following the most aggressive hiking in four decades as well as recent bank failures that might tighten credit conditions. At the same time, he said that the vast majority of the committee projected higher rates will be needed to tame inflation. “In determining the extent of additional policy firming that may be appropriate to return inflation to 2% over time, we will take into account the cumulative tightening of monetary policy, the lags with which monetary policy affects economic activity and inflation, and economic and financial developments,” Powell will tell lawmakers

Powell expects more Fed rate hikes ahead as inflation fight 'has a long way to go' -- Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell on Wednesday affirmed that more interest rate increases are likely ahead until additional progress is made on bringing down inflation.Speaking a week after Federal Open Market Committee officials decided for the first time in more than a year not to push rates higher, the central bank leader indicated that the move likely was just a brief respite rather than an indication that the Fed is done hiking."Nearly all FOMC participants expect that it will be appropriate to raise interest rates somewhat further by the end of the year," Powell said in prepared remarks for testimony he will deliver to the House Financial Services Committee. The speech is part of his semiannual appearance on Capitol Hill to update lawmakers on monetary policy. Following last week's two-day FOMC meeting, officials indicated they see rate increases totaling 0.5 percentage point through the end of 2023. That would indicate two additional hikes, assuming quarter-point moves. The Fed's benchmark borrowing rate is currently pegged in a range between 5%-5.25%.Noting that inflation has cooled but "remains well above" the Fed's 2% target, Powell said the central bank still has more work to do."Inflation has moderated somewhat since the middle of last year," he said. "Nonetheless, inflation pressures continue to run high, and the process of getting inflation back down to 2% has a long way to go."Fed officials generally prefer to look at "core" inflation, which excludes food and energy prices. That is showing inflation running at a 4.7% year-over-year rate through April, according to the central bank's preferred measure of personal consumption expenditures prices. The core consumer price index for May was at 5.3%.Monetary policy moves, such as rate hikes and the Fed's efforts to shed bond holdings on its balance sheet, tend to work with lags. As such, officials decided to skip hiking at this month's meeting as they observed the impact that policy tightening has had on the economy.Powell said the labor market is still tight though there are signs that conditions are loosening, such as an increase in labor force participation in the prime 25-to-54 age group and some moderating in wages. However, he noted that the number of open jobs still far exceeds the available labor pool."We have been seeing the effects of our policy tightening on demand in the most interest rate-sensitive sectors of the economy," he said. "It will take time, however, for the full effects of monetary restraint to be realized, especially on inflation."Inflation expectations, considered a key variable for where prices are heading over time, are "well-anchored," Powell said. The closely watched University of Michigan consumer confidence survey, for instance, showed that the inflation outlook for a year from now dipped to 3.3%, the lowest since March 2021.

Fed Chair Powell: Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to the Congress --This testimony will be live here at 10:00 AM ET. Report here. From Fed Chair Powell: Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to the Congress. An excerpt on inflation: We at the Fed remain squarely focused on our dual mandate to promote maximum employment and stable prices for the American people. My colleagues and I understand the hardship that high inflation is causing, and we remain strongly committed to bringing inflation back down to our 2 percent goal. Price stability is the responsibility of the Federal Reserve, and without it, the economy does not work for anyone. In particular, without price stability, we will not achieve a sustained period of strong labor market conditions that benefit all....In light of how far we have come in tightening policy, the uncertain lags with which monetary policy affects the economy, and potential headwinds from credit tightening, the FOMC decided last week to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 5 to 5-1/4 percent and to continue the process of significantly reducing our securities holdings. Nearly all FOMC participants expect that it will be appropriate to raise interest rates somewhat further by the end of the year. But at last week's meeting, considering how far and how fast we have moved, we judged it prudent to hold the target range steady to allow the Committee to assess additional information and its implications for monetary policy. In determining the extent of additional policy firming that may be appropriate to return inflation to 2 percent over time, we will take into account the cumulative tightening of monetary policy, the lags with which monetary policy affects economic activity and inflation, and economic and financial developments. We will continue to make our decisions meeting by meeting, based on the totality of incoming data and their implications for the outlook for economic activity and inflation, as well as the balance of risks.We remain committed to bringing inflation back down to our 2 percent goal and to keeping longer-term inflation expectations well anchored. Reducing inflation is likely to require a period of below-trend growth and some softening of labor market conditions. Restoring price stability is essential to set the stage for achieving maximum employment and stable prices over the longer run.

No, the Fed isn’t letting up on rates: Takeaways from hearing - Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell on Thursday said the central bank’s interest rate hikes still have more work to do, pointing to evidence that the policy moves haven’t had their full impact on inflation.Powell, in testimony to the Senate Banking Committee, acknowledged that inflation has roughly halved in the past year but attributed that in large part to lower energy and food prices.“I won’t say [food and energy are] not affected at all by monetary policy, but they’re principally affected by other things in the economy,” he said, including fallout from the war in Ukraine. He also said prices have cooled as supply chain snarls have eased. “That, again, is not really a function of monetary policy.”The most recent Consumer Price Index reading showed that annual inflation came down to 4 percent in May, from a peak of over 9 percent last summer. The extent to which price spikes continue to lessen will be a key determinant of whether the Fed needs to force a recession to tame the rising cost of living. Officials are closely watching the labor market, as wages are one of the biggest expenses for key service sectors that are seeing large price increases.“Really, where monetary policy takes effect is in the service sector, and that’s where we haven’t seen much progress,” Powell said. “Inflation, broadly, is coming down, but as I said in my remarks, we still have a long way to go. Inflation’s still running between 4 and 5 percent.”Powell, under questioning from Sen. Bob Menendez (D-N.J.), said he didn’t think rate increases were less effective but that they merely take a while to fully do their job. How long? A year is a decent guess, he said.“This day and age, financial conditions react before we act. So the markets are already pricing in rate hikes, so that’s quicker,” he said. Mortgage rates, for example, jumped rapidly as the central bank ramped up its plans to raise borrowing costs, which it began to do in March 2022.But the full impact of those financial conditions on the economy takes time. “It works very quickly on housing for example, but less so on the service sector, which is not very interest-sensitive.”There is considerable disagreement among economists about how long it takes for the Fed’s actions to feed through to economic activity and ultimately inflation. “A year and change – that’s not a bad way to look at it,” Powell said. “But policy actually started tightening well before that.”Big banks are expecting within the next few weeks a proposal from their regulators, including the Fed, to increase the size of the capital cushion they’re required to have to absorb losses. That process is being driven by Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr, but the full Fed board has to work through it.

WATCH: Fed Chair Jerome Powell reinforces likelihood of more rate hikes | PBS NewsHour (AP) — Chair Jerome Powell reiterated Thursday that the Federal Reserve will likely raise interest rates at least once more this year because of persistently high inflation in the economy’s service sector and the surprisingly tight job market.Watch the hearing in the player above.Speaking to a Senate committee, Powell noted that “inflation has moderated somewhat since the middle of last year.” Still, the Fed chair stressed, “inflation pressures continue to run high.”Powell was testifying to the Senate Banking Committee on the second day of semi-annual testimony to Congress. On Wednesday, he addressed the House Financial Services Committee and sounded a similar message that some further rate hikes are likely coming this year.On Thursday, Powell noted that “nearly all” Fed policymakers ”expect that it will be appropriate to raise interest rates somewhat further by the end of the year.”In May, consumer prices were up 4 percent in May compared with 12 months earlier, down from a year-over-year peak of 9.1 percent in June 2022, but still double the Fed’s 2 percent inflation target.The central bank has raised its benchmark rate aggressively since March 2022 in a push to slow the economy and reduce inflationary pressure. At their meeting last week, the Fed’s policymakers kept their key rate unchanged after 10 straight hikes, buying time to see what impact higher rates are having on the economy. But the rate increases may resume after a pause: Twelve of 18 Fed policymakers last week indicated that they envision at least two more rate hikes this year.

Fed's Bostic says bar to justify further rate hikes is higher - Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Raphael Bostic said he supports holding the central bank's target-rate level for the rest of 2023 and that it's prudent to give time for inflation to ease in response to past moves. "Letting restrictive policy work for a while is prudent because the policy has been truly restrictive for less than a year, and it takes time for monetary policy changes to meaningfully influence economic activity," Bostic said in an online commentary published Wednesday. "We have good reasons to expect our policy tightening will be increasingly effective in coming months, which would accelerate progress to that end." In a later Yahoo Finance interview, Bostic said, "My baseline is that we should stay at this level for the rest of the year." By contrast, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, in congressional testimony, said policymakers expect interest rates will need to move higher to reduce U.S. growth and contain price pressures, even though they held rates steady at their meeting last week. He cited the committee's forecast for two more hikes this year. Bostic said scholars and historians of the Fed have reviewed past Fed hiking cycles and often concluded the central bank "has always gone like one or two steps further than they absolutely needed to." In his commentary, Bostic said he agreed with the view that "the bar to justify further rate hikes is higher than it was a few months ago." The Atlanta Fed president pointed out that as inflation slows, real interest rates increase so that monetary policy effectively becomes tighter. "I think of this dynamic as 'passive tightening,' and it should help us continue on the path to our target if recent inflation trends persist," he said. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said earlier that the decision to hold rates steady last week was a "close call" as central bank officials try to figure out whether they've tightened enough to ease inflation. Goolsbee, who took office in January, has voiced more concern about tightening financial conditions than many of his colleagues following the collapse of four U.S. lenders in recent months.

Nominee for Fed's #2 job doesn't take clear stand on tougher regulation - Philip Jefferson, whose nomination for vice chairman of the Federal Reserve is pending before the Senate Banking Committee, gave measured responses Wednesday to questions about potentially heightened regulation of midsize banks.Jefferson, the second Black person to be nominated to serve as the central bank's vice chair, appeared before the Senate panel for a nomination hearing.He was joined by Lisa Cook, a member of the Federal Reserve's Board of Governors who is nominated for a new 14-year term after her current one expires in January, and Adriana Kugler, an economist who is nominated for a vacant Fed governor position. Democratic lawmakers touted the diversity of President Biden's nominations. Cook is the first Black woman to serve on the Board of Governors. And Kugler, a U.S. representative to the World Bank, would be the first Latina to serve on the board."In the 110-year history of the Federal Reserve, there has never been a member of the Board of Governors who has the lived experience of being Latino in America," said Sen. Bob Menendez, D-N.J. "Not once. And so today, we are taking momentous steps and are writing history in real time." The nominations come as Michael Barr, the Fed's bank policy chief, pursues a holistic capital review and in the wake of the failures of Silicon Valley Bank, Signature Bank and First Republic Bank.

Biden goes quiet on killing off the debt ceiling - With the threat of economic calamity hovering over the nation last month, President Joe Biden offered an olive branch to liberals demanding he take swift executive action. After the current fight was over, he said, it was his “hope and intention” to push for permanently getting rid of the nation’s debt ceiling. The standoff is now over. But Biden appears to be in no rush to try and kill off the debt ceiling. Aides say the topic isn’t coming up at all. Instead, the sense inside the administration is that it’s not worth the White House’s time and effort to work on averting a crisis that might arrive in 2025 when there are so many other pressing priorities. But that posture has left progressives feeling snookered and worried that the president is setting himself up for another dangerous round of brinkmanship in a few years. “Democrats should be moving forward on all options to get rid of the debt ceiling,” said Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.), who advocated exploring the 14th Amendment as well as taking congressional action to minimize the odds of default. “The debt ceiling has become a tool used by only one side to try to advance their extremist views that they otherwise could not get through the democratic process, and we’ve got to put a stop to it.” White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre deflected questions over whether Biden would keep his initial vow to explore whether the 14th Amendment invalidated the debt ceiling entirely, saying earlier this month it’s now “something for Congress to kind of deal with.”

Secretary of State Antony Blinken meets with Chinese President Xi Jinping amid mounting U.S.-China tensions - Secretary of State Antony Blinken met with Chinese President Xi Jinping on Monday, rounding out a high-stakes trip to Beijing that the U.S. hopes will help ease the mounting tensions between the two countries. Xi’s willingness to meet with Blinken is a signal from the top of the ruling Chinese Communist Party that Beijing wants to move past the acrimony that has curdled U.S.-China ties since the Chinese spy balloon episode in February. Xi’s conversation with Blinken — on the heels of the secretary’s meeting with Foreign Minister Qin Gang on Sunday, which affirmed both a follow-up discussion in Washington later this year and a need to bolster U.S.-China people-to-people exchanges — reflects Beijing’s desire to resume high-level official contacts despite festering disagreements over issuesincluding Taiwan’s status and China’s role in America’s opioid overdose epidemic. In a statement delivered ahead of the meeting, Xi hailed the “candid discussions” Blinken had with Chinese officials, and said that China had agreed “to follow through the common understandings” he and President Joe Biden reached when they met in Indonesia in November.Blinken thanked Xi for hosting him, and spoke of the “obligation and responsibility” the two countries have to manage tensions between them.That relationship is “one of the most consequential in the world,” he said during a news conference before wrapping up the trip.“Here in Beijing, I had important conversations with President Xi, and I had added substantive and constructive discussions with my counterparts,” Blinken said.The roughly 35-minute meeting with Xi in the Great Hall of the People was seen as a critical sign to the trip’s success, though it wasn’t confirmed ahead of time. After Xi met with Microsoft founder Bill Gates earlier this month, a failure to organize a Xi-Blinken meeting might have constituted a deliberate snub by Chinese authorities.“If Xi had refused to meet with Blinken, it would have signaled that the Chinese leader was abandoning the diplomatic exchange process he agreed to with Biden last fall,” said Jacob Stokes, a senior fellow for Indo-Pacific issues at the Center for a New American Security. “So, the fact that it happened probably means more than the outcomes.”During his meetings, Blinken said, he touched on several topics including tensions over Taiwan, North Korean aggression, trade, human rights, the war in Ukraine and wrongfully detained U.S. citizens. He also spoke with Chinese leaders about areas where the two powerful countries share a mutual interest, including the climate, macroeconomic stability, public health and food security.Despite the promise of continued conversations among high-level U.S. and Chinese officials, China did not agree to open military-to-military lines of communication, Blinken told CBS News in an interview.“We don’t have an agreement on that yet. It’s something we’re going to keep working [on],” Blinken said.State Department officials did not expect the countries to reach a breakthrough on any of the issues in which they’re most divided. The administration described Blinken’s trip as part of a longer-term effort to cool the bilateral rancor that has effectively frozen high-level diplomatic dialogue for almost five months.Though the trip is a sign of abating tensions, Blinken noted that the two countries were still deeply divided.“Progress is hard. It takes time and [it’s] not the product of one visit, one trip, one conversation,” he told reporters.“My hope and expectation is we will have better communications, better engagement going forward. That’s certainly not going to solve every problem between us — far from it. But it is critical to doing what we both agree is necessary. And that is responsibly managing the relationship.”

Blinken urges China's vigilance on its firms providing tech to Russia (Reuters) -U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said on Monday he had asked China's government to be vigilant about private companies that may be providing Russia with technology that could be used against Ukraine, although he said he had seen no evidence Beijing is providing lethal assistance to Moscow. "What we do have ongoing concerns about, though, are Chinese firms, companies, that may be providing technology that Russia can use to advance its aggression in Ukraine and we have asked the Chinese government to be very vigilant about that," Blinken told reporters. Blinken spoke on a rare visit to Beijing during which China and the United States agreed to stabilize their intense rivalry so it does not veer into conflict, although the visit did not yield any major breakthrough. Blinken met on Monday, the second day of his visit, with Chinese President Xi Jinping. Western powers have provided Ukraine with billions of dollars in military assistance since Russia invaded in February 2022. China has faced accusations, which it denies, of supplying lethal weapons to Moscow. China and Russia announced a "no-limits" partnership shortly before Russia invaded Ukraine. "With regard to lethal aid to Russia for use in Ukraine, we and other countries have received assurances from China that it is not and will not provide lethal assistance to Russia for use in Ukraine," Blinken said. Asked for comment on Blinken's remarks, the Chinese embassy in Washington said China is committed to promoting peace talks and has not provided weapons to either side in the Russia-Ukraine conflict. "We oppose the unfair prohibition or restriction on normal economic and trade activities between Chinese and foreign companies. We urge the U.S. side not to undermine China's legitimate rights and interests in any form when handling the Ukraine issue and its relations with Russia," spokesperson Liu Pengyu said in an emailed statement.

Xi, Blinken agree to stabilize China relations in Beijing talks (Reuters) -China and the United States agreed on Monday to stabilize their intense rivalry so it does not veer into conflict, but failed to produce any major breakthrough during a rare visit to Beijing by U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken. Chinese President Xi Jinping welcomed "progress" after shaking hands with Blinken at the Great Hall of the People, a grand venue usually reserved for greeting heads of state. The top U.S. diplomat and Xi both stressed the importance of having a more stable relationship, as any conflict between the world's two largest economies would create global disruption. China refused to entertain Washington's bid to resume military-to-military communication channels, citing U.S. sanctions as the obstacle. The two sides appeared entrenched in their positions over everything from Taiwan to trade, including U.S. actions toward China's chip industry, human rights and Russia's war against Ukraine. U.S. President Joe Biden said later on Monday he thinks relations between the two countries are on the right path, and indicated that progress was made during Blinken's trip. "We're on the right trail here," Biden said of U.S.-China relations. Asked by reporters during a trip to California whether he felt progress had been made, he replied, "I don't feel," he said. "You know it's been made." Biden said of Blinken: "He did a hell of a job." At one of the most significant U.S.-China exchanges since Biden took office, it was not clear how the countries would overcome their differences. The sides agreed to continue diplomatic engagement with more visits in the coming weeks and months.

Military bases and Biden quips complicate thaw of U.S.-China ties - In the case of the United States and China, loose lips and secret military facilities might sink relationships — no matter how much the Biden administration doesn’t want that to happen. After a Chinese spy balloon frayed ties between Washington and Beijing, Secretary of State Antony Blinken visited China this past weekend to mend them. But that diplomatic advance was quickly overshadowed by the public revelation that China was in talks with Cuba to create a joint military training base on the island nation 100 miles from Florida’s coast. President Joe Biden followed that hours later by saying his order to shoot down the balloon was “a great embarrassment for dictators” like Xi Jinping, enraging China with his characterization of its leader. Now, the relationship between the world’s two foremost powers is teetering again after it showed brief signs of stability, complicating Biden’s search for amicable ways to coexist with China as both compete ferociously across the globe. Almost the moment Blinken set foot on the departing plane, U.S. officials began to float next steps, which would include a Biden-Xi call and, eventually, a meeting to follow their encounter last fall in Bali, Indonesia. Among the options under early consideration, according to officials: an in-person discussion on the sidelines of the G-20 summit in New Delhi in September or at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation gathering in San Francisco two months later. Such plans are no longer assured. On Tuesday, news broke indicating the China-Cuba military base could host Beijing’s forces near the American homeland. While joint training isn’t wholly provocative — the U.S. often conducts drills with partners near an adversary’s territory, including putting American forces in Taiwan — “having Chinese troops in Cuba is something different,” said Beth Sanner, formerly the deputy director of national intelligence for mission integration.

Joe Biden stands by Xi Jinping 'dictator' remark but says it hasn't harmed US-China relations - US President Joe Biden says he does not think his comment referring to Chinese President Xi Jinping as a "dictator" has undermined or complicated the US relationship with China.Mr Biden declined to walk back the sentiment when addressing reporters at the White House on Thursday."The idea of my choosing and avoiding saying what I think is the facts with regard to the relationship with… China is, is just not something I am going to change very much," he said.Mr Biden made the "dictator" remark at a California fundraiser earlier this week, just a day after US Secretary of State Antony Blinken met Mr Xi in China. Talking about a suspected Chinese spy balloon shot down over the US earlier this year, he had said: "The reason why Xi Jinping got very upset in terms of when I shot that balloon down … was he didn't know it was there. That's a great embarrassment for dictators." On Thursday the president said he expected to be meeting with Mr Xi in the near future, and that Mr Blinken's recent trip to China had been great.>"I don't think it's had any real consequence," Mr Biden said about his comment, which came only a day after Mr Blinken had said the matter of the spy balloon should be closed.China viewed Mr Biden's initial comment as a provocation and lodged complaints with the US government.

US Coast Guard ship transited Taiwan Strait after Blinken's China visit -US Navy (Reuters) -A U.S. Coast Guard ship sailed through the Taiwan Strait on Tuesday, the U.S. Navy's 7th Fleet said on Thursday, transiting the sensitive waterway a day after U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken completed a rare visit to Beijing. The strait, which separates China from the democratically governed island of Taiwan, is a frequent source of tension as Beijing steps up its political and military pressure to try to force Taipei to accept Chinese sovereignty. The U.S. Navy's 7th Fleet said the national security cutter USCGC Stratton conducted a "routine" Taiwan Strait transit on Tuesday "through waters where high-seas freedoms of navigation and overflight apply in accordance with international law". "Stratton's transit through the Taiwan Strait demonstrates the United States' commitment to a free and open Indo-Pacific. The United States military flies, sails and operates anywhere international law allows," the 7th Fleet added in its statement. The mission, which neither China nor Taiwan has yet commented on, happened the day after Blinken ended a visit to Beijing, in which the two countries agreed to stabilise their intense rivalry so it does not veer into conflict, but failed to produce any major breakthrough. U.S. military vessels, and on occasion those of its allies, have routinely sailed through the strait in recent years, to the anger of China, which views such missions as provocation.

WSJ Report Claims China Eyes Training Facility in Cuba as Response to US Entrenchment in Taiwan -The Wall Street Journal reported Tuesday that Beijing and Havana are negotiating to establish a joint military training facility in Cuba, something the report acknowledged China would be exploring as a response to further US military entrenchment in Taiwan.The report cited unnamed US officials and is not confirmed. The officials said the intelligence is based on a reference contained in a US intelligence assessment, which they described as “convincing but fragmentary.”The officials said that US intelligence reports suggest the talks between the US and Cuba are at an advanced stage but not concluded. They said the Biden administration has contacted Cuba in an attempt to stop the potential deal.The new claim comes after US accusations that China has had spying capabilities in Cuba since at least 2019,which China has denied. The spying allegations started with another Wall Street Journal report that was published on June 8 that claimed China and Cuba were discussing setting up a spy facility in the Caribbean country.If the claims about the training facility are true, Beijing’s efforts would clearly be a response to the US building up militarily in areas near China. The Journal report said that some US intelligence officials say “that Beijing sees its actions in Cuba as a geographical response to the US relationship with Taiwan: The US invests heavily in arming and training the self-governing island that sits off mainland China and that Beijing sees as its own.” Taiwan is roughly 100 miles from the coast of mainland China, about the same distance Cuba is from Florida. The major difference between the two islands is that China considers Taiwan its own territory, while the US does not claim Cuba.

Rep. Gaetz Wants to Give Biden Military Authorization to Take Out ‘Chinese Assets’ in Cuba - Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-FL) on Thursday told the House Armed Services Committee that he wants to give President Biden the authority to intervene militarily in Cuba to “take out” Chinese assets that are allegedly on the island.“I support an Authorization for Use of Military Force to take out the Chinese assets in Cuba,” Gaetz said. He wanted to add the AUMF as an amendment to the 2024 National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) but had to withdraw it for procedural reasons.“To my hawk friends on the committee who think I’m too much of a dove, this amendment is an authorization to use military force given to President Biden to take out the Chinese assets in Cuba,” he said.Gaetz’s comments came after The Wall Street Journal reported Beijing and Havana are negotiating to establish a joint military training facility in Cuba, which cited unnamed US officials who based the claim on “convincing but fragmentary” intelligence.US officials also recently claimed that China has had spying capabilities in Cuba since at least 2019, which Beijing has denied. But if the claims are true and Beijing is looking to build military assets and spying facilities in Cuba, it would be a response to the US building up militarily in areas near China, particularly Taiwan, which is about as far from mainland China as Cuba is from Florida.The Journal report said that some US intelligence officials say “that Beijing sees its actions in Cuba as a geographical response to the US relationship with Taiwan: The US invests heavily in arming and training the self-governing island that sits off mainland China and that Beijing sees as its own.”This year, the US deployed about 200 troops to Taiwan, marking the largest known US military presence on the island since 1979. The US also recently signed a deal to expand its military presence in the Philippines and is frequently sailing ships and flying planes in sensitive areas near China, including the South China Sea and Taiwan Strait.

Biden Says Threat of Putin Using Tactical Nukes Is 'Real' - President Biden warned Monday that the threat of Russian President Vladimir Putin using tactical nuclear weapons is “real.”The president made the comments to donors during a trip to California. “When I was out here about two years ago saying I worried about the Colorado River drying up, everybody looked at me like I was crazy,” he said, according to Reuters.“They looked at me like when I said I worry about Putin using tactical nuclear weapons. It’s real,” Biden added.Biden has previously recognized that the policy of the US and NATO backing Ukraine against Russia risks nuclear war. In October 2022, he said the chances of “nuclear armageddon” were higher than at any point since the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis.But since warning of nuclear armageddon, Biden has done nothing to ease tensions with Russia and has escalated US involvement in the war, including by giving the green light for European countries to send US-made F-16s to Kyiv.Biden administration officials have also repeatedly expressed support for Ukrainian attacks on Crimea using US-made weapons, which is a major redline for Russia.

Biden Dispatches Sullivan, Nuland To Convince War Skeptics From BRICS To Turn Against Russia - At a moment President Zelensky has confessed that Ukraine's counteroffensive which was launched this month has been "slower than desired", President Biden's national security advisor Jake Sullivan is mounting a big push to convince "skeptics" from developing nations to become more firmly supportive of Kiev's war effort. "Joe Biden’s top national security aide will fly to Denmark this weekend at the behest of Kyiv’s government for an unannounced meeting with representatives of several developing countries that have not condemned Russia’s invasion of Ukraine," Financial Times has reported.A planned Copenhagen meeting is expected to include large but 'neutral' countries like Brazil, India, and South Africa - the latter which has of late been accused of actively supporting Moscow.Sullivan's initiative came at the request of the Ukrainian government, also as Russia's economy has been successfully weathering the storm of US/EU-led sanctions, in particular upping its energy exports to BRICS countries. As for the as yet unannounced list of likely attendees in Denmark, FT details based on its sources: Officials from Turkey and possibly China could also attend. One of the people familiar with the plans said that, following the Ukrainian request, Washington has been encouraging China, India, Brazil, Turkey and South Africa to attend.Sullivan will travel with Victoria Nuland, the number-three official at the US state department. A senior EU official will also participate.

House lawmakers target Pentagon plan to ramp up missile production for Ukraine - Republicans on the House Appropriations Committee are making significant cuts to an ambitious Pentagon goal to ramp up production of missiles as it seeks to arm Ukraine while preparing for a potential conflict with China. Appropriators exacted more than $2.5 billion in reductions to sections of their Pentagon spending bill that deal with missile procurement across the military services, according to a draft committee report obtained by POLITICO that includes funding tables to accompany the legislation. The shift in funding to other accounts by the influential spending committee is a blow to a major pillar of President Joe Biden’s defense plans laid out in his most recent budget proposal. Billions of dollars worth of weapons poured into Ukraine, forcing military planners to reconsider how it buys munitions to be prepared for another conflict. The result was a first-ever request by the Pentagon for Congress to fund multiyear purchases of munitions in a bid to kick production into high gear to be ready for a future fight. The move by the committee also sets up a potential fight with other panels in the House and Senate that may side with the Pentagon’s plans. Multiyear purchases of missiles have proved popular on Capitol Hill, where many lawmakers are taking an increasingly hawkish tack toward China and argue the U.S. must produce enough weapons to be ready for a potential conflict over Taiwan before the decade is out. But appropriators cast doubt on the viability of the ambitious plans for some munitions, saying the Pentagon didn’t show its work to justify betting on the bold plan. “The Committee is particularly concerned the Department [of Defense] cannot provide realistic cost estimates and has proceeded with these multiyear procurement requests without a firm understanding of each program’s unit cost and production capacity,” lawmakers wrote in their report. Instead, the panel redirected money to bolster military training, maintenance and operations as well as Pentagon research and development efforts to field new technology and weapons. The shift in funding came as appropriators — facing a defense spending cap locked in by the debt limit deal — squeezed overall Pentagon weapons procurement spending. Procurement, typically a favorite for congressional increases, clocks in $3 billion lower than the Pentagon requested. As part of the $2.5 billion missile cut, the spending panel trimmed much of a Pentagon push for $1.9 billion to support bulk purchases, blocking a large chunk of “economic order quantity” funding for missile programs. The designation is a mathematical device used to prove that buying at a higher volume will result in lower prices per missile, but the Pentagon was unable to provide adequate data. The committee specifically denied multiyear procurement authority for Raytheon Technologies-manufactured Standard Missile-6 and the Advanced Medium-Range Air-to-Air Missiles because appropriators do not believe the Pentagon has a clear understanding of unit costs and production capacity. Having data to back up unit costs and production capacity estimates is required by law to initiate multiyear procurement authority, which the Pentagon already uses for ships and aircraft.

Pentagon Says 'Accounting Error' Provides Extra $6.2 Billion in Ukraine Military Aid - The Pentagon on Tuesday claimed that an “accounting error” has freed up an additional $6.2 billion to spend on military aid for Ukraine.Pentagon Deputy Press Secretary Sabrina Singh told reporters that weapons sent to Ukraine from US military stockpiles using the Presidential Drawdown Authority (PDA) were overvalued by using the cost to replace the arms rather than the depreciated value.“In a significant number of cases, services used replacement costs rather than net book value, thereby overestimating the value of the equipment drawn down from US stocks and provided to Ukraine,” Singh said.Reports first surfaced in May that said the Pentagon may have overvalued weapons it was sending to Ukraine. At the time, the estimate was that the error would account for at least $3 billion in new funds for Ukraine, which has more than doubled.Singh said that for the 2023 fiscal year, the Pentagon overvalued weapons by $3.6 billion. In the 2022 fiscal year, it was $2.6 billion. “These valuation errors in no way limit or restricted the size of any of our PDAs or impacted the provision of support to Ukraine,” she said.The additional funds mean that the White House might not need to ask Congress to authorize more spending on Ukraine before the end of the 2023 fiscal year, which is September 30 for the federal government. Congress would likely approve any new Ukraine aid package as there is still strong bipartisan support for funding the proxy war. The debt ceiling deal reached between the White House and House Republicans put no limit on emergency spending packages, which is how Congress has authorized the $113 billion that has been approved for spending on the war so far.

Blinken Announces $1.3 Billion for Ukraine at Reconstruction Conference - Secretary of State Antony Blinken announced $1.3 billion in new economic aid for Kyiv at a meeting on Ukraine’s reconstruction held in London, known as the Ukraine Recovery Conference.According to the State Department, the $1.3 billion will go toward “general economic assistance, assistance to repair and modernize Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, and support for Ukraine’s commitment to energy sector reforms.”The $1.3 billion is being drawn from spending Congress has already authorized for the Ukraine war, which at this point totals $113 billion. The State Department said that the new aid is in addition to the $63 billion in US assistance provided to Ukraine since February 24, 2022.Of that $63 billion, more than $40 billion was military aid, although the Pentagon claimed on Tuesday that it overvalued weapons it sent to Ukraine by $6.2 billion, freeing up more funds to arm Kyiv. The $63 billion also includes $2.1 billion in humanitarian assistance and $19.3 billion in direct budgetary aid, which funds the Ukrainian government.At the conference in London, the EU also pledged $54.5 billion in long-term reconstruction support for Ukraine that’s intended to be provided from 2024-2027. The pledges are just a fraction of the $411 billion the World Bank estimates is needed to rebuild Ukraine.The EU is also looking to use frozen Russian central bank assets to fund Ukraine’s reconstruction, which would be an unprecedented move. The idea would be to invest over $200 billion in Russian funds the EU controls and send the profits to Ukraine.

NYT: Western Countries Have Sent Broken Weapons to Ukraine - The New York Times reported Monday that the US and its Western allies have shipped weapons to Ukraine that were broken and needed repair or were only useful for spare parts. The report also said that Ukraine has not received weapons from contractors that it has paid for. As of the end of 2022, the Ukrainian government paid over $800 million for arms contracts that were completely or partly unfulfilled. Sources told the Times that some of the unfulfilled weapons had been delivered or refunds were issued but said hundreds of millions of dollars were paid for weapons that never materialized. The report said the most valuable undelivered contracts were between the Ukrainian Defense Ministry and state-owned Ukrainian arms companies. Ukraine has also had issues with contractors in other countries. According to Ukrainian government documents, Kyiv paid $19.8 million to the Ultra Defense Corporation, an American arms dealer based in Tampa, to repair 33 damaged howitzers provided by the Italian government. The documents said that 13 of the howitzers were shipped to Ukraine but arrived not suitable for combat missions, although the CEO of Ultra Defense Corporation claimed each howitzer worked when they were delivered and blamed the Ukrainians for not maintaining them. Kyiv complained about the issue to the Pentagon’s inspector general, who is investigating the matter. There are also multiple examples of military equipment being pulled from US military stockpiles that were not in good condition. A US Army unit based in Kuwait was ordered to send 29 Humvees to Ukraine, and the unit’s leader claimed all but one of the Humvees was ready for combat. But a Pentagon report said 26 were in need of repair. After the Humvees were repaired, they were sent to Poland to be staged for Ukraine. But in Poland, it was discovered that 25 of the Humvees needed new tires. A Pentagon report said that finding replacement tires “delayed the shipment of other equipment to Ukraine and required significant labor and time.”

How US-made sniper ammunition ends up in Russian rifles – In a 60-second video clip posted on Telegram, a masked sniper sporting the death's-head insignia of the Wagner mercenary army sings the praises of the Russian-made Orsis T-5000 rifle.“The equipment comes very well recommended,” the soldier, pictured in the charred interior of a building, tells a war reporter from the Zvezda TV channel run by the Russian Ministry of Defense.Pulling out the clip of the weapon at his side, he continues: “It uses Western .338 caliber ammunition. It works very well. It can penetrate light cover if the enemy is behind it. And, in the open, it can strike the enemy at a range of up to 1,500 meters.”The Orsis T-5000 is made by a company based in Moscow called Promtekhnologiya that has been sanctioned by the United States.And the “Western” ammunition?Filings obtained by POLITICO indicate that Promtekhnologiya and another Russian firm called Tetis have acquired hundreds of thousands of rounds made by Hornady, a U.S. company that trademarks its wares as “Accurate. Deadly. Dependable.” Hornady, founded in 1949, sums up its philosophy with the phrase: “Ten bullets through one hole.”The findings add to a growing body of evidence that supplies of lethal and nonlethal military equipment are still reaching Russia despite the West’s imposition of unprecedented sanctions in response to President Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine last year. The exigencies of war have exposed Russia’s lack of capacity to manufacture high-end sniper rounds, say defense experts, and that is fueling a flourishing black market for Western ammunition. In a “declaration of conformity” filed with a Russian government registry and dated August 12, 2022, Promtekhnologiya stated that it planned to source a batch of 102,200 Hornady lead bullets for the assembly of “hunting cartridges” used in “civilian weapons with a rifled barrel.” The specifications — .338 Lapua Magnum bullets weighing 285 grains — match those of a product in the Hornady catalog. A second declaration bearing the same date is for a batch of “uncapped cartridge cases for assembling civilian firearms cartridges” made by Hornady with the same .338 Lapua Magnum specification. The description is misleading: The .338 Lapua Magnum isn’t merely a “hunting cartridge;” it’s also a high-powered, long-range projectile that was developed by Western militaries in the 1980s and used by their snipers in Iraq and Afghanistan.Reached by POLITICO, Steve Hornady, CEO of the family company based in Grand Island, Nebraska, denied selling ammunition to Russia in wartime. “The instant Russia invaded Ukraine, we were done,” Hornady said in a brief telephone call. Hornady declined at first to elaborate and, when asked to review the evidence, requested that it be sent by fax or courier as he did not use email. He eventually responded after POLITICO sent written requests for comment with supporting documentation by courier. “We categorically are NOT exporting anything to Russia and have not had an export permit for Russia since 2014,” he replied. “We do not support any sale of our product to any Russian son-of-a-bitch and if we can find out how they acquire, if in fact they do, we will take all steps available to stop it.”

Modi US visit: Biden makes trade-offs and India's PM steps out of his comfort zone --— Welcoming Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi to the White House this week for a state visit – the most elevated form of American diplomacy – required President Joe Biden to make certain trade-offs and Modi to step out of his comfort zone, for at least a few minutes. Modi, massively popular in India, has demonstrated a drift toward authoritarianism that has worried the West. He’s cracked down on dissent, targeted journalists and introduced policies that human rights groups say discriminate against Muslims. Yet Modi and India, the world’s largest democracy, also represent a lynchpin in Biden’s strategy in Asia. The country recently surpassed China to become the most populous country on Earth. No major global challenge, from climate change to advances in technology, can be addressed without India’s buy-in, in Biden’s view. And in an era of growing tensions between the US and China, there are few partners that Biden is more eager to cultivate. That, according to officials, was the rationale behind inviting Modi for a state visit, only the third of Biden’s presidency so far. And so on Thursday the prime minister was welcomed to the White House with the highest trappings of American friendship: Marching troops on the South Lawn, extensive Oval Office talks and a state dinner in the evening, complete with a chef who specializes in plant-based cuisine to accommodate Modi’s vegetarian diet. “I’ve long believed the relationship between the United States and India … will be one of the defining relationships of the 21st century,” Biden said during an elaborate welcome ceremony during which he hailed the friendship between the US and India. Modi takes reporters’ questions in remarkable moment Later, when the two leaders held a joint news conference that had been subject of intense negotiations between American and Indian officials, it was only Biden who called on reporters. But Modi, for one of the only times since he assumed power, also responded to a question about his crackdowns on dissent and treatment of religious minorities. “There’s absolutely no space for discrimination,” Modi said through a translator. ‘When you talk of democracy, if there are no human values and there is no humanity, there are no human rights, then it’s not a democracy.”

Modi’s visit focuses attention on caste discrimination in US -Maya K came to the US in 2002. She was born in Hyderabad in India, in a family considered to be untouchable by the upper-caste Hindus. Castes are the hereditary classes of Indian society, each with its role and status defined in the scriptures of Hinduism. At the top of the ladder are the Brahmins, who claim an exclusive right to perform religious rituals; at the bottom are the Dalits, who were denied the right to education and consigned to the jobs that required hard labour, or were considered impure. Caste discrimination was outlawed in India at the time of the country’s independence, but in recent years Hindu mobs have lynched Dalits who try to assert their identity with pride. Earlier this month, in the most recent such killing, a 22-year-old was beaten and stabbed to death in Maharashtra, a state co-ruled by the Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata party of the prime minister, Narendra Modi, for celebrating the birth anniversary of BR Ambedkar, the Dalit economist and lawyer who wrote India’s constitution. Modi, who is currently on a state visit to the US, has faced criticism during his tenure for the persecution of minorities, the collapse of constitutional institutions, and the imprisonment of government critics in India. His party, critics allege, aims to make India a Hindu nation, where Dalits, Muslims and other minorities are treated as second-class citizens. For some in the US, the repercussions continue abroad, making the pomp and circumstance of a Modi state visit feel personal. “As Indians have come to this country,” Maya (not her real name), who lives in Washington DC, said, “they have brought this discriminatory mindset with them.” Maya had heard snide comments about her caste and faced discrimination while pursuing her undergraduate studies in India, but she did not imagine that would continue in the US. “When I started working, I had an Indian American manager,” she told me. “As soon as he found out my caste, he started ignoring me completely, it got to a point when he would just pretend to not have heard what I said in a meeting,” she said. In 2008, Maya founded Ambedkar Association of North America, named after BR Ambedkar. The group now has about 700 members spread across the US and Canada with the goal of helping the underprivileged communities back in India with financial support, and fighting against caste discrimination in the US. According to a Carnegie Endowment for International Peace survey about half of all Hindu Americans identify with a caste group. “Caste is still not a protected category of discrimination in most of the Unites States,” she said

Hunter Biden on state dinner invitation list, along with Kevin McCarthy and Merrick Garland - President Joe Biden’s son Hunter is among the dozens of guests on the list to attend the president’s state dinner with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Thursday evening. It’s the first time the president will attend an official event with his son since Hunter Biden reached a plea deal to resolve a five-year federal investigation into his failure to pay about $1 million in federal taxes and his purchase of a handgun in 2018. The president has so far refrained from commenting widely on his son’s legal woes, telling reporters, “I’m very proud of my son.” But things could get awkward at Thursday’s dinner, as the president’s son comes up against some of his foremost critics. The list of expected attendees also includes House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, who has lambasted the results of the Justice Department inquiry and has helped amplify Republican calls for further investigation into Hunter Biden and the Biden family. “It continues to show the two-tier system in America.” McCarthy said of the plea deal. “If you are the president’s leading political opponent, the DOJ tries to literally put you in jail and give you prison time. But if you are the president’s son, you get a sweetheart deal.” Making for even more potential discomfort, Attorney General Merrick Garland — who has been caught in the crossfire of Republican attacks on the president’s son — is also on the guest list. Garland has found himself fending off repeated attacks from the GOP, which have only increased in intensity since the news of the plea deal and the federal indictment of former President Donald Trump. When asked about attending the dinner with Hunter Biden and Garland, McCarthy, who brought his daughter-in-law as his guest, dodged the question. “I look forward to taking my daughter-in-law for the very first time to the White House,” he replied, according to a pool reporter. “Every state dinner I brought another member of my family.” House Majority Leader Steve Scalise, another dinner attendee who has decried what he has also called a “sweetheart” plea deal, sidestepped the same question from reporters. “It should be an interesting dinner,” he said before praising Modi’s address to Congress on Thursday afternoon. Several other members of the Biden family are also expected to attend the event, as are a mass of elected officials, White House officials, business leaders and celebrities.

Biden leads Washington in feting Modi, India’s far-right prime minister - President Joe Biden and the entire US political establishment are according Narendra Modi—India’s far-right, Hindu supremacist prime minister—every honour and attention during his four-day US visit, which concludes Friday. In addition to the pomp and ceremony-filled state visit, Modi was invited to address a joint session of the US Congress Thursday afternoon. He has thereby joined Winston Churchill and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky as one of only a handful of foreign political leaders ever to do so twice. The Biden-Modi summit by all reports is intended to take the Indo-US “global strategic partnership,” aimed at China, to the next level. Multibillion-dollar Indian arms purchases, joint military production and development initiatives, and measures to spur India’s emergence as a rival production chain hub to China are the key summit “deliverables.” A succession of US presidents, Republican and Democratic alike, from George W. Bush and Barack Obama to Donald Trump and now Biden, have touted the Indo-US partnership as an alliance of the world’s most populous “democracies” based on “shared values.” Today, this lie is more manifestly blatant and obscene than ever. During their nine years in office, Modi and his Hindu supremacist BJP have mounted a massive assault on democratic rights, while fomenting anti-Muslim and anti-minority bigotry and violence. This includes discriminatory laws banning cow slaughter and enforced by vigilante justice; the bulldozing of the homes of Muslim government opponents; pervasive internet and social media censorship; the indefinite jailing without trial of journalists under draconian antiterrorism laws; and the passing of a labor code “reform” that criminalizes most strikes. Even the leaders of the right-wing bourgeois opposition are hounded as the BJP and its fascistic allies, led by the Hindu supremacist RSS of which Modi is a lifelong member, seek to monopolize political power. Rahul Gandhi, the leader of the principal opposition party, the Congress Party, was recently convicted on bogus, trumped-up charges. He is barred from contesting next year’s national election and, pending the outcome of his appeal, could soon be behind bars.

Ilhan Omar didn't just boycott Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi's joint address to Congress— she's introducing a resolution condemning the religious freedom abuses occurring in India. Rep. Ilhan Omar is taking her boycott of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi's joint address to Congress one step further by introducing a resolution condemning human rights violations and the curtailing of religious freedom in India. The resolution, first obtained by POLITICO, would condemn violations of human rights and international religious freedom in India, including moves targeting Muslim, Christian, Sikh, Dalits and Adivasi individuals, as well as other religious and cultural minorities. The resolution also calls on the secretary of State to designate India as a "Country of Particular Concern" in the next annual report submitted by the U.S. International Religious Freedom Commission. Read the resolution.

Modi, White House announce resolution of trade disputes between India and U.S. - The United States and India have resolved six separate trade disputes at the World Trade Organization, including a fight over former President Donald Trump’s tariffs on steel and aluminum and India’s retaliatory duties.“We have decided to resolve long-pending trade-related issues and make a new beginning,” Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi said at a joint news conference with President Joe Biden following their White House meeting.The agreements are a surprising development, after National Security Council spokesperson John Kirby told reporters at a press briefing earlier this week not to expect “a specific resolution on trade issues coming out of these next few days.” In fact, India has agreed to remove retaliatory tariffs on certain U.S. products, including chickpeas, lentils, almonds, walnuts, apples, boric acid and diagnostic reagents, that it imposed after Trump slapped duties on steel and aluminum imports using Section 232 of the 1962 Trade Expansion Act.“Today’s agreement represents the culmination of intensified bilateral engagement over the last two years, including through the U.S.-India Trade Policy Forum, to deepen our economic and trade ties,” U.S. Trade Representative Katherine Tai said in a statement. “As a result of our work, U.S. agricultural producers and manufacturers will now enjoy renewed access to a critical global market and we will strengthen our trade relationship with one of our closest partners.USTR said the resolution “also maintains the integrity of the U.S. Section 232 measures.” That means India agreed to lift its trade retaliation without the U.S. altering the steel and aluminum tariffs that Trump imposed, a USTR spokesperson said.In addition to the two cases related to Trump’s tariffs, the United States and India also agreed to terminate four other WTO disputes. Two of those had been filed by India and two by the United States.That still leaves one filed by the United States in 2012 challenging India’s poultry trade barriers. However, one former U.S. trade official said he heard talks on that issue were continuing and a deal was still possible. The USTR spokesperson said he had “no news to share at the moment or preview beyond what we announced today.”

Western Official Says US Goal in Deal With Iran Is to Avoid Israeli Attack - An unnamed Western official speaking to Reuters said one of the US’s main objectives in recently engaging with Iran and reaching some sort of agreement on its nuclear program is to prevent an Israeli attack on the Islamic Republic.“If (the) Iranians miscalculate, the potential for a strong Israeli response is something that we want to avoid,” the official said.So far, the US has denied that any deal with Iran is in the works. But Iran has confirmed indirect negotiations have recently taken place in Oman, and a deluge of media reports have said an agreement between the two sides is close.The Reuters report said the US wants to portray the potential deal as an “understanding” rather than an agreement that would need congressional approval. The majority of Congress is very hawkish on Iran and would likely oppose any formal deal.A potential understanding that’s on the table would involve Iran either ceasing 60% uranium enrichment or vowing not to go above that level in exchange for access to frozen funds or more general sanctions relief. The US is also looking to secure the release of Americans detained in Tehran.While Israel is always sounding the alarm about Iran’s nuclear program, it’s opposed to agreements that would restrict Tehran’s uranium enrichment. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Sunday that Israel is opposed to any “mini agreement” between the US and Iran.Despite Israel’s claims, there’s no sign Iran wants to build a nuclear weapon, and it has never enriched uranium at the 90% level needed for weapons-grade. Iran has also been very cooperative with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) recently, unlike Israel, which has a secret nuclear weapons program and is not a signatory to the Non-Proliferation Treaty.

US Nuclear-Capable B-52 Bombers Arrive in Indonesia for First Time - Two US B-52 bombers arrived in Indonesia on Monday, marking the first time the nuclear-capable aircraft landed in the Southeast Asian nation as the US is looking to beef up its military presence in the region to prepare for a future war with China.The bombers are participating in Cope West, a joint military exercise being held from June 12-23 that involves US and Indonesian pilots training together.“This specific deployment of the B-52s to Indonesia highlights the importance of working with our allies, partners, and other US joint military units as we bolster our collective ability to support a free and open Indo-Pacific,” a US Pacific Air Forces spokesman told Air & Space Forces Magazine.While the US and Indonesia have military ties, Jakarta wants to remain neutral between Washington and Beijing and has resisted pressure to allow the US military to establish bases on its territory.Indonesia has also spoken out against some of the US’s military efforts in the region, including AUKUS, the trilateral military pact between the US, Australia, and Britain that will eventually arm Canberra with nuclear-powered submarines.The presence of US B-52 bombers in the region could become more common as part of Washington and Canberra’s plans to increase military ties involves basing six of the aircraft in Australia. According to Australia’s ABC News, the US will build facilities for the bombers near the city of Darwin that are expected to be completed by 2026.

Republicans target Biden Pentagon policies on diversity, abortion in the National Defense Authorization Act - Pentagon personnel policies took center stage early on Wednesday in the House Armed Services Committee’s deliberations over its annual defense policy bill, with conservatives pushing to rein in programs they deem distractions from the military’s mission. The Republican-led panel has muscled through a variety of amendments to blunt the penalties for troops who didn’t comply with the since-repealed military vaccine mandate and tamp down efforts to combat climate change. The panel has also launched into a debate on blocking Pentagon programs aimed at promoting diversity and inclusion and targeting critical race theory. The new GOP majority, under Armed Services Chair Mike Rogers (R-Ala.), will need to walk a narrow path between endorsing conservative policies in the annual National Defense Authorization Act and maintaining the support of Democrats who will be needed to pass the bill on the House floor next month. The panel is set to consider more than 800 amendments to the bill, which would authorize $886 billion for national defense. “We all have the same goal, to support the men and women who serve our nation. If we keep that goal in mind, I am very optimistic that the bill we report today will enjoy strong bipartisan support,” Rogers said as the panel opened its markup. Republicans are expected to offer a variety of amendments during the marathon markup to rein in Pentagon policies to promote diversity and inclusion, combat extremism in the ranks and mitigate climate change. The committee could end up punting on some of the most contentious debates and save them for the full House, but Armed Services’ top Democrat Adam Smith is already warning that some GOP proposals go too far for his side. “I am concerned that there are amendments filed to the bill that cross these redlines and could jeopardize final passage of the bill,” Smith said in a statement.

Biden calls Tuberville hold on military nominations ‘bizarre’ — President Biden on Monday called Sen. Tommy Tuberville’s (R-Ala.) hold on military nominees over the Department of Defense’s abortion policy “bizarre.” Biden, during a fundraiser in Los Gatos, Calif., called Tuberville a “former football coach from Alabama” and did not mention him by name. “It’s bizarre, I don’t remember it happening before,” Biden said of Tuberville’s holds, which have held up more than 200 military promotions. “I know I don’t look like I’ve been around, but I’ve been around a long time.” Tuberville had placed on the hold on nominees to protest the Pentagon’s policy that allows people to be reimbursed if they need to cross state lines to secure abortion services. Earlier on Monday, White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre said Tuberville’s hold is “hurting our national security.”

House Republicans suggest shutting down DC traffic cameras as part of proposed budget cuts - Congress is looking to pull the plug on automated traffic enforcement in D.C. A new plan announced by House Republicans is not only looking to shut down D.C.’s traffic cameras, it’s also taking aim at a law that’s supposed to take effect in 2025 that would ban drivers from making right turns at red lights. Congress has the final say over D.C.’s budget and after weighing in on D.C.’s revised criminal code, police reform and voting rules, GOP representatives are looking to stop D.C. from using cameras to enforce traffic laws.

House GOP's latest fracture: How fast to try to impeach Biden - House GOP hardliners have found a new tactic to push their party further rightward — and cause heartburn for Speaker Kevin McCarthy: forcing doomed votes on impeaching President Joe Biden.The rush to impeachment votes comes after first-term Rep. Anna Paulina Luna (R-Fla.) found success on her second try at forcing the House to censure Rep. Adam Schiff (D-Calif.) for his lead role in investigating former President Donald Trump’s ties to Russia. Luna is expected to prevail against Schiff on Wednesday using what’s called a “privileged resolution,” one that requires a speedy floor vote. And Luna’s maneuver appears to have inspired her fellow conservatives to go much further against their favorite Democratic target. Rep. Lauren Boebert (R-Colo.), another House Freedom Caucus firebrand, is pushing forward with her own privileged resolution that would impeach Biden. At least two other Freedom Caucus members, Reps. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) and Andy Ogles (R-Tenn.), told POLITICO they are pursuing separate impeachment resolutions.It adds up to a new headache for McCarthy, just two weeks after roughly a dozen conservatives held the House floor hostage out of fury over the California Republican’s debt deal with Biden. McCarthy privately told his members during a closed-door meeting Wednesday that now isn’t the time for an impeachment vote, and some of his allies got more critical in public.“Things like impeachment are one of the most awesome powers of the Congress. It’s not something you should flippantly exercise in two days,” said Rep. Garret Graves (R-La.), one of McCarthy’s biggest sounding boards in the conference.Rep. Don Bacon (R-Neb.), a battleground-district Republican, called the impeachment race among conservatives frustrating and described it as “a person thinking about themselves versus the team. Impeachment is a serious thing. It should go through committee. They got to make the case, find the facts.”Luna revised her resolution to censure Schiff after her first attempt failed to garner enough GOP support over concerns it violated the Democrat’s constitutional rights. While her second edition is poised to pass on Wednesday, winning over even swing-seat Republicans like Bacon, the same can’t be said for impeachment resolutions like Boebert’s.Any quick resolution to impeach Biden is likely to fail, with Democrats only needing a few Republicans to join them as opponents in the narrowly divided House. And nudging less-hardline Republicans to vote against impeachment puts those members in an uncomfortable position, exposing them to criticism from the party’s fired-up, pro-Trump base — not to mention offering Biden a fundraising boon.

House Freedom Caucus faces an internal purge push - Tensions inside the conservative House Freedom Caucus have reached the point that some members are floating the idea of purging colleagues from the group. At least two hardliners have discussed — and proposed to Freedom Caucus Chair Scott Perry (R-Pa.) — trying to boot members who no longer meet the group’s standards, according to three Republicans with knowledge of the talks who spoke on condition of anonymity. The lawmakers declined to name who’s behind the ouster calls, underscoring the sensitivity of the situation. While the members suggesting a purge did not specify the people they want to remove, they are signaling that one target of any ejection push is Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.). Some in the Freedom Caucus have focused on Greene, who’s become a close ally of Speaker Kevin McCarthy, to illustrate their fears that certain group members are too aligned with GOP leaders and too outwardly critical of the group when it splits on certain issues. The risk of an outside-the-tent conservative becoming too friendly with the establishment isn’t the only problem that Freedom Caucus purists have identified, though. Internal Freedom Caucus critics are talking about targeting a handful of members beyond Greene, too, whom they see as violating group standards by being inactive. Perry told POLITICO that he denied the removal requests. Yet the fact that he had to illustrates how the group continues to struggle with its identity since former President Donald Trump left office, not to mention the acrimony caused in the lead-up to the handshake deals McCarthy made to win conservative votes during January’s grueling speakership battle.

Cranky Congress: House GOP hopes a holiday can ease its factional warfare - House Republicans are leaving town Friday for a lengthy recess after a particularly chaotic stretch — but they have little reason to relax. A group of GOP hard-liners revealed this week that they’ve unlocked a new tactic to disrupt their own party’s floor agenda. And while their more senior colleagues hope it’s just a phase, that may be wishful thinking. Take House Armed Services Chair Mike Rogers (R-Ala.), who insisted in an interview that he’s not worried about right-wing rebels diverting floor time from his $886 billion Pentagon policy measure. “I really think most of this stuff is going to be out of their system” by the time his defense bill gets a vote next month, Rogers said. Yet a ringleader of that conservative floor blockade — who has had his own well-known run-in with Rogers — insists it’s only the beginning: “It’s actually going to be a new doctrine for us,” Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Fla.) said after conservatives successfully pushed a measure to punish Rep. Adam Schiff (D-Calif.) on Wednesday. “I told the speaker, he obviously had more fun today than he’s ever had as speaker,” Gaetz added. “Today was his best day as speaker.” That stark disconnect reveals a serious risk for House Republicans: that the friction growing among them since Speaker Kevin McCarthy‘s debt deal with President Joe Biden has ushered in a new era of factional warfare within his conference. Even as they start a two-week recess, many GOP lawmakers worry that tensions in their midst could make for a summer of hell, with internal battles raging ahead of September’s government shutdown deadline. Those tensions have worsened thanks to the House’s marathon springtime session, which has seen lawmakers in Washington every week since early May. Rep. Ann Wagner (R-Mo.) captured the mood on Wednesday, getting caught on a hot mic after a colleague checked in on her during a Foreign Affairs Committee hearing: “Seven straight weeks, this is not healthy,” she said. “I hate Republicans. I hate Democrats. I hate my staff. My staff hates me. Seven weeks is not good,” Wagner said in exaggerated jest. “John Boehner would have never put up with this. He thought if we were together for more than four weeks, then you know — I guess that is why we are all doing all this stupid shit.” Many Republicans are still struggling with political whiplash: Less than a month ago, they notched what qualified as a big win on the debt deal, with McCarthy forcing Democrats into spending cuts that Biden’s party had vowed to avoid. But the prospect of a victory celebration evaporated days later as hard-liners blockaded the floor for nearly a week. Now those same conservative rebels are waging an arms race over impeaching Biden and members of his Cabinet that could cost precious floor time during Congress’ busiest stretch — while risking their more vulnerable colleagues’ political fates. .

‘Blood on your hands’: Duckworth blasts Sinema for pilot training proposal - Sen. Tammy Duckworth on Thursday blasted a proposal being pushed by Sen. Kyrsten Sinema that could alter how much training a pilot needs to fly a commercial aircraft, saying lawmakers will have “blood on your hands” if they support the changes she is seeking. “Now is not the time to put corporate profits ahead of the lives of our constituents who may want to board a commercial flight in the future,” said Duckworth (D-Ill.), an Army veteran helicopter pilot who chairs the Senate subcommittee in charge of aviation. “A vote to [change the training rules] for pilots will mean blood on your hands when the inevitable accident occurs as a result of an inadequately trained flight crew.” Just hours before Duckworth’s speech, the proposal from Sinema (I-Ariz.) had forced the Senate Commerce Committee to postpone a vote on a major aviation policy bill. Because Democrats hold only a slim majority in the Senate, Sinema and the panel’s Republicans could have amended the bill to include her training language. Democrats have largely opposed changing the training rules, and they have joined the Biden administration in targeting what they call corporate malfeasance in the airline industry. Some smaller, regional airlines have been pushing for changes to the current rule requiring pilots to have 1,500 hours of training before they can fly for a commercial airline, arguing that the rule is contributing to ongoing pilot workforce problems. Sinema’s amendment, drafted with Sen. John Thune (R-S.D.), would allow certain kinds of airline training programs to be weighted more heavily toward that 1,500-hour requirement than they are at present — a proposal similar to those already rejected by the Biden administration. Sinema, who caucuses with the Democrats, did not immediately have any comment. The issue broke into public view Thursday during a challenging time for the industry, with air travel climbing sharply toward pre-pandemic levels at the same time the system saw a spate of near-misses earlier this year. Though airlines and the Federal Aviation Administration appear to have, for now, arrested the near miss problem, even one more near-collision with half the year remaining would be a dire warning of freefall for an aviation system that has an otherwise enviable record of safety in recent years. Duckworth alluded to the near-misses during her speech, calling 2023 “a chilling year” for aviation safety. She said her experience as “a pilot responsible for the lives of my crew and passengers in the most hazardous conditions” and leadership on the aviation safety subcommittee “means that I cannot be complicit in efforts to compromise on safety for the flying public.”

Schumer launches new phase in push for AI bill - Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer unveiled his framework Wednesday to get Congress on a path toward comprehensive AI legislation — though any specific legislative details remain murky. The majority leader’s “SAFE Innovation framework” builds on his April announcement of a “major effort” to develop federal regulations for AI. According to a one-pager from Schumer’s office, the acronym stands for security, accountability, foundations and explain, which together make up four of the five principles underpinning Schumer’s legislative approach to the fast-moving technology. “Many want to ignore AI because it’s so complex,” Schumer said in a speech at the Center for Strategic and International Studies think tank, where he announced the new framework. “But when it comes to AI, we cannot be ostriches sticking our heads in the sand.” Schumer expects comprehensive AI legislation will secure both U.S. national security and American jobs; support responsible systems in the areas of misinformation, bias, copyright, liability and intellectual property; require AI tools to align with democratic values; and determine what level of transparency the federal government and private citizens require from AI companies. The fifth principle, innovation, builds off the majority leader’s desire to “support U.S.-led innovation in AI technologies.” Lawmakers are mulling whether to fund research projects and compute infrastructure that could supercharge productivity and help American AI companies compete with foreign rivals. “Innovation must be our North Star,” Schumer said Wednesday. “But if people think AI innovation is not done safely, if there are not adequate guardrails in place ... that will stifle or even halt innovation altogether.” Schumer also announced plans to convene a series of “AI Insight Forums” starting this fall. The meetings would task top AI experts with briefing Congress on topics as varied as workforce, national security, privacy, explainability and even “doomsday scenarios.”

Hill spotlight on classified documents dims after Trump’s indictment — which may be a good thing - The indictment of former President Donald Trump is taking the heat off a little-known government official whose agency once looked primed for a conservative shellacking: the national archivist. On Capitol Hill, even some of Colleen Shogan’s staunchest opponents during her confirmation battle now see the spotlight shifting off the National Archives and Records Administration and toward the courtroom where the federal case against Trump will be tried. It’s a significant shift from the frenetic environment that Shogan’s nomination first landed in after the FBI searched the former president’s Mar-a-Lago home — sparking a clash over classified document retention that grew even bigger after sensitive material was also found at facilities connected to President Joe Biden and former Vice President Mike Pence.But with Shogan confirmed on a bipartisan basis, Trump facing a court fight and House Republicans largely moving on to other Biden-centric investigative targets, lawmakers appear to have let go of their previous intense focus on the Archives and Shogan. In addition, a Justice Department special counsel is probing the Biden documents matter and DOJ’s Pence-focused inquiry is already closed.“We have an expectation she’s going to fulfill what she said she was going to do during the confirmation: that was, to be nonpartisan and to be able to take care of those records,” said Sen. James Lankford (R-Okla.), who sits on the committee that vetted the archivist and voted against her on the floor.But any issue with how presidents are handling classified information is “not on her watch at this point,” Lankford added. “That’s a legal issue.”Sen. Josh Hawley (R-Mo.), another member of the governmental affairs panel who led the opposition to Shogan’s confirmation, agreed that the nexus of the fight over classified documents had moved: “I think that’s right. That’s my sense of it. I don’t know how involved they are at this point, the National Archives.” The top Democrat on the panel that oversaw the fierce confirmation battle, Sen. Gary Peters (D-Mich.), said he’s not heard from Republicans concerned with the Archives since the Senate floor vote. “I haven’t talked to her since she’s been confirmed. She wasn’t there before and was not part of any of that [classified document fight] and she’s a highly qualified individual,” he said. “I’ve not heard any focus on her.”

House Dems fume at Senate over Biden nominations - Officially, House Democrats have no say over presidential nominations. Unofficially, they’re wading knee-deep into confirmations they think the party is botching. Top Congressional Black Caucus members are steaming that the Biden administration isn’t adequately consulting them on judicial nominees. Swing-district Democrats want the Senate to pick up the pace on filling key vacancies. And progressives are furious that the chamber still hasn’t considered Julie Su’s nomination as Labor secretary. The Senate broke for a recess on Thursday with no plans to vote on Su, whom Biden nominated in late February to be his administration’s first Asian American Cabinet secretary. Rep. Jamaal Bowman (D-N.Y.), a member of the progressive “squad,” called it “racist” and “embarrassing” that the Senate hadn’t advanced her nomination. “It’s once again the party harming itself,” he said, adding he hoped undecided senators will “get on board.” It’s a reflection of House Democrats’ growing frustration in the minority, where the party and its powerful Black Caucus have little sway over legislation. Instead, they’re trying to exert power by catching the ear of the president, his top aides and the Democratic Senate — sometimes prompting intra-party tension as House lawmakers step into already crowded lanes. Under split government, the Democratic Senate has spent much of its time this year on nominees, including an array of diverse judges with progressive bona fides as well as several with Republican backing. Still, House Democrats are smarting that their Senate colleagues aren’t more aggressive in their tactics. And senators are brushing off some of the suggestions from the lower chamber. The Black Caucus met with White House chief of staff Jeff Zients last week and advocated for changes to Senate precedent that would make it easier to confirm defense and judicial nominees. They’re not yet convinced, though, that the White House will be receptive to their broader concerns about the lack of input top Black Democrats have on nominees.

Congress' debt ceiling deal made only modest changes to permitting rules. SCOTUS brought its wrecking ball. - Congress spent months obsessing over an effort to loosen the rules on federal environmental permits — only for the Supreme Court to eclipse its efforts in a single morning.The court’s May 25 decision shrinking federal wetlands protections took a wrecking ball to an expansive permitting regime that has been in place for nearly 50 years ― and it’s already having a ripple effect in how agencies enforce a wide range of other environmental safeguards. The 5-4 ruling put at least half the country’s marshes, swamps and other wetlands outside the reach of federal water protections, an outcome that could speed the way for pipelines, power lines, highways and housing projects across the U.S.The justices announced their decision as House Republicans and the White House were struggling to close a deal to lift the nation’s debt-ceiling, adrama-filled exercise that GOP lawmakers and some Democrats had hoped to leverage to hasten permit approvals for energy projects. The final legislation made only modest tweaks to permitting rules, leaving lawmakers to express hopes of reaching a grander bargain before the 2024 elections.In contrast, the court’s ruling in Sackett v. EPA delivered a win for an array of industries, legal experts say — and it may enable many projects to avoid federal scrutiny altogether. The decision showcased yet again the power of the court’s conservative majority to make sweeping changes to federal policyat a time when close partisan splits in the House and Senate hamper Congress’ ability to act.“Sackett is not a Promised Land. It didn’t clear up everything. But boy did it clear up a lot,” said Molly Cagle, senior counsel at the law firm Baker Botts who advises infrastructure developers on permitting.The court decision addressed what has been one of the biggest regulatory hurdles for a wide range of projects: obtaining a Clean Water Act permit to fill in streams and wetlands.The ruling stripped Clean Water Act protections from wetlands that lack a “continuous” surface water connection to larger streams, lakes and rivers — a much narrower interpretation of the law than either the Supreme Court or even the Trump administration had applied before. Conservative Justice Brett Kavanaugh joined the court’s three liberals in objecting to that outcome, accusing the majority of “rewriting” Congress’ words.Now, legal experts say, hundreds of projects will probably no longer need Clean Water Act permits at all. Other projects will still have to go through the water permitting process, but will likely face far fewer requirements to either lessen their impacts on wetlands or pay for rebuilding wetlands elsewhere.

White House adviser Podesta says controversial pipeline was ‘inevitable’ - White House adviser John Podesta said Tuesday that the approval of the controversial Mountain Valley Pipeline (MVP) was “inevitable” — defending President Biden’s signing of legislation that advanced the pipeline. “MVP was on its way to being permitted anyway,” Podesta said Tuesday following an event announcing funds for sustainable upgrades to federal buildings. “I think MVP was inevitable.” Democrats first agreed to pass legislation approving the pipeline, a 303-mile project that would carry natural gas from West Virginia to Virginia, as part of their deal with Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) in exchange for his vote on their climate, tax and healthcare bill. Their initial attempts to pass it as part of a permitting reform package flopped last year, but efforts to legislate the pipeline’s approval were recently revived in a deal between the White House and House Republican leadership to lift the debt ceiling. The passage of the provision has rankled climate activists, who say the administration should not be bolstering additional fossil fuel infrastructure.

Inside Manchin's war with Biden on electric vehicles - Sen. Joe Manchin has been at war with the administration for months over its implementation of last year’s landmark climate law. He is even accusing President Joe Biden of breaking a promise to him. “They’re going to try to screw me,” the West Virginia Democrat said earlier this year of White House officials. But nearly two dozen congressional aides, members of Congress, administration officials and lobbyists are questioning Manchin’s full account of the negotiations and wondering how one of the Inflation Reduction Act’s authors came to be so bent on attacking his own law — along with his own party. The dispute is coloring the administration’s relationship with a pivotal lawmaker who often decides the fate of bills and nominees. Manchin is also in the midst of deciding his own political future, which could include a run for reelection in a red state or a third-party bid for president. Senior Manchin aides insist the senator’s posture is based entirely on Biden himself promising to implement Inflation Reduction Act provisions on electric vehicle incentives and sourcing requirements to Manchin’s exact specifications, which are focused on domestic manufacturing and mining rather than pursing a dramatic increase in EV sales. “The president gave Manchin his word,” one top aide said, adding that congressional Democratic leaders gave the same verbal agreement. Manchin, in a brief interview Thursday, reiterated his argument to the president: “Just stay within the confines of the bill. Don’t try to implement a bill you didn’t pass.” But White House spokesperson Michael Kikukawa disputed claims of a broken promise and administration freelancing: “The president committed to implementing the law as written, and that is what the administration is doing.” In interviews with people who were all, in some way, involved in crafting the Inflation Reduction Act, a clearer picture has emerged of the unusual two-week sprint to complete the massive bill and get it to the president’s desk. They were granted anonymity to speak candidly. A handful of staffers hammered out the final pieces of the Inflation Reduction Act over a 13-day period last summer. White House aides were not there. But because Senate Democrats used the arcane process of budget reconciliation to secure the bill’s passage without Republican votes, the text left the administration with broad powers to interpret provisions on climate and other issues, said people familiar with the talks. That is contributing to the current standoff over how to enforce EV tax incentives. Some people working inside the administration and on Capitol Hill contend that Manchin should have known this was a plausible outcome of negotiations. Others say Manchin, who chairs the Energy and Natural Resources Committee, could have insisted on language to protect his goals in the Inflation Reduction Act — but he didn’t. All the while, Manchin is claiming he was given a verbal promise from the highest levels of government that the bill would be implemented to his specific wishes. Yet in interviews with administration officials and congressional aides, no one would confirm the assertion.

Biden kicks off reelection bid with “America First” speech to trade union bureaucrats - On Saturday, June 17, President Joe Biden held the first event of his reelection campaign, a rally sponsored by the trade unions in Philadelphia. Biden was introduced by Liz Shuler, president of the AFL-CIO. He addressed a crowd of 2,000, mostly union bureaucrats, who frequently interrupted his remarks with rapturous applause. The choice of venue was significant. The trade union bureaucracy is an important element in the Democratic Party’s electoral machine, and it funnels millions of dollars and thousands of organizers every election cycle into the Democrats’ get-out-the-vote campaigns. The union operatives show far more diligence and energy trying to corral workers into supporting this capitalist party than they do in promoting turnout for their own internal elections. In the recent leadership elections in the United Auto Workers, less than 10 percent of the membership cast votes that were counted, under conditions where tens of thousands never received ballots at all. Even more important than their role in Biden’s electoral strategy, the unions are a critical instrument in his strategy of class rule. He considers the corrupt, pro-corporate bureaucracy key to maintaining control over an angry and restive working class, as American capitalism continues to spiral downward into economic, political and social crisis. Through the unions, Biden is trying to suppress strikes and wage growth, and discipline workers as US imperialism wages war to maintain its global dominance while imposing brutal austerity to make workers pay the cost. Last week, the International Longshore and Warehouse Union (ILWU) suddenly announced a tentative agreement for 22,000 west coast dockworkers. The announcement is an attempt to halt a series of job actions by rank-and-file workers that have compromised the union’s no-strike pledge, under which it has kept workers on the job without a contract for nearly a year. Biden’s acting labor secretary, Julie Su, was reportedly instrumental in finalizing the deal, and the White House has been heavily involved in talks from the start, as it has been for every major contract affecting critical infrastructure. Last summer, early on in the longshore contract talks, Biden gave a warmongering speech from the deck of a World War II-era battleship in the Port of Los Angeles. Also last week, the United Auto Workers successfully rammed through a sellout contract at a Clarios battery plant near Toledo, Ohio. It did so by starving workers out on the picket line. This is a preview of what the so-called “reform” administration of new union president Shawn Fain will try to do to the 150,000 autoworkers at the Big Three auto companies this fall. The UAW has not yet officially endorsed Biden, one of the few major unions not to do so, but it is fully in line with Biden’s protectionist, trade war strategy as the US prepares for war with China.

Biden’s industrial policy is missing a key ingredient: Allies - The Washington Post Editorial Board -- The era of unfettered free trade is over. There’s bipartisan sentiment in Washington to build what national security adviser Jake Sullivan has called a “new consensus” around “a modern industrial and innovation strategy.” It’s echoed in Beijing and other foreign capitals that are aggressively pursuing protectionist policies. What comes next is still in the incubation phase. Yes, the Biden administration has enacted sweeping subsidies to boost production of semiconductors, batteries and green energy at home. There are already signs of a U.S. manufacturing resurgence. Industrial policy is clearly back, but how it gets implemented will set a precedent on the global stage. Is this new era one of decoupling or a growing trade practice known as “friend-shoring”? Top Biden administration officials insist it’s not decoupling, which would be a broad retreat from trade. We agree that would be a mistake. A better approach is to deepen trade ties with our allies and like-minded nations, a strategy that might be called maximal friend-shoring. To put it another way, Bidenomics will succeed long-term only with a lot of friends abroad. “Our goal is a strong, resilient, and leading-edge techno-industrial base [of] the United States and its like-minded partners,” Mr. Sullivan said. The key lesson from the past 30 years of free trade is that the United States failed to acknowledge there would be losers — especially many blue-collar communities at home — or to do much to help them. It also took too long to fight back against China’s widespread and unfair use of subsidies and protections for its homegrown companies. And there was little to no strategic thinking about the environmental costs of mass production of goods in Asia and shipping them around the world — or about the national security imperatives to maintain certain production capabilities in North America. Advertisement Meanwhile, policymakers cannot ignore the fact that costs of production do matter in the long run. The premise of trade strategy is that there are huge benefits to having nations specialize in different tasks and then trading goods and services. Done right, trade helps create more growth and consumption while lowering costs. The proof is evident. More than one-third of people on the planet lived in poverty (defined as living on less than $1.90 a day) in 1990. By 2015, that number had fallen to 10 percent. The success was driven largely by the economic rise of China and India. Another reality of Mr. Biden’s industrial policy is that the United States will not be able to produce everything for the green energy future efficiently. The subsidies might lure investment now, but companies won’t stay here unless it makes sense longterm. The ideal is for the United States to think of this green future as one to build hand-in-hand with our long-standing allies in Europe, the United Kingdom, Canada, Japan and Australia. This nation already shares security secrets with them, and there have been renewed unity and purpose in the ardent opposition to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. It would benefit the United States economically, politically, militarily and more to think of tighter trade links, too. All the better if other nations can be brought into the fold as well.

No Labels declines to reveal just who is funding its third party bid - No Labels’ bid to run a third party presidential candidate in 2024 has sparked a number of questions about political motivations. Chief among them: Who, exactly, is paying for this thing? The centrist group consists of a constellation of entities, some of which disclose donor names. But the main one is a nonprofit which, unlike political parties, does not have to reveal the names of its funders. And in an interview with POLITICO, its CEO, Nancy Jacobson, declined to do so, saying simply that it was a “mixed” pool of individual contributors including “people that want to help our country.” Ryan Clancy, the group’s chief strategist, said the group doesn’t discuss individual donors as a matter of protecting their privacy and safety. “We know how the game is played these days, which is (if) people don’t like your organization, what’s the easiest way to destroy it? Well, go find the donor list and go start intimidating them in their place of work and harassing them on social media,” said Clancy. No Labels’ refusal to reveal donor identities has worsened tensions in Washington, where a smattering of Democratic and anti-Donald Trump conservatives have accused the group of potentially kneecapping President Biden’s reelection. They say that unlike other nonprofit groups, No Labels is essentially running a presidential campaign without the requirements that apply to formal political parties; namely disclosures. Experts in campaign finance law say that the organization is walking right up to the line of what is permissible.

Elections Are Like A Toy Steering Wheel For Babies: Notes From The Edge Of The Narrative Matrix – Caitlin Johnstone - Voting in a western “democracy” is like that bit in the opening intro of The Simpsons when Marge is driving with the baby and the baby has a toy steering wheel. The baby thinks she’s driving the car but it’s just a fake toy to keep her busy and let her feel like she’s participating. All the worst atrocities in human history have been perpetrated or permitted by the government of the people who perpetrated them. None of the world’s most evil people are in prison. The law isn’t there to protect you from bad people, it’s there to protect bad people from you. That’s why you should always, always, always be distrustful of all efforts to extend the law and expand government power over you. It’s not happening because your government wants to help you. Your government is not your friend.

Meet the Texas commissioners who could stymie Biden’s climate agenda - Christi Craddick earns tens of thousands of dollars from oil company stocks, has taken industry-paid flights and threw a campaign event hosted by one of Texas’ biggest petroleum producers. She’s also the state’s top oil and gas regulator, heading an agency that could pose a huge roadblock to one of President Joe Biden’s key climate policies. As chair of the elected Texas Railroad Commission, Craddick oversees fossil fuel companies that provide a large chunk of the United States’ greenhouse gas pollution, including the potent gas methane. The agency’s three Republican commissioners oppose a Biden administration push to tighten oversight of methane releases, a rule that Craddick has called an “attack on the industry that provides so much to our state.” The commissioners — Craddick, Wayne Christian and James Wright — are financially enmeshed with the same industry, with connections that include campaign contributions, business income and ownership of company stock, according to state disclosure records reviewed by POLITICO. The Biden administration’s ability to work with — or around — this agency will have a large bearing on the president’s hopes of slashing U.S. methane emissions in half by 2030. Scientists blame methane for one-third of the Earth’s temperature rise since the start of the industrial revolution, and Texas’ oil companies lead the industry in releasing the gas by venting or burning it. The commission plays a pivotal role by approving the companies’ methane releases — something its critics say it does all too readily. “All the Biden’s administration’s plans on methane run through the Railroad Commission,” said Chrysta Castañeda, a Dallas-based energy lawyer who ran an unsuccessful campaign as a Democrat to join the commission in 2020. One member of a White House climate task force echoed that sentiment, saying the commission has been on the radar of aides drawing up Biden’s climate policies. The Railroad Commission “is pretty important to Biden’s plans on methane,” said Virginia Palacios, who also heads Commission Shift, a nonprofit that advocates for changes to the Texas agency and compiled an earlier review of Craddick’s finances. “Texas produces more greenhouse gas emissions than any other state and we produce more oil and gas than any other state,” Palacios said in an interview. “Being able to reduce methane emissions in the Texas oil and gas sector is a critical part of the climate movement. It has to happen.”

American Airlines fined $15,000 after worker was sucked into plane engine -- An Occupational Safety and Hazard Association (OSHA) report stated that the airline did not provide “a place of employment which were free from recognized hazards that were causing or likely to cause death of serious physical harm to employees that were exposed to ingestion and jet blast hazards.”

Lawmakers seek to ban buy now/pay later loans for semiautomatic weapons -- Nineteen Democratic lawmakers proposed a ban on buy-now, pay-later loans to finance semiautomatic weapons that would include levying hefty fines on companies that enable the transactions and dealers that accept them. The Assault Weapon Financing Accountability Act, which will be introduced Thursday by Connecticut Representative John Larson and co-sponsored by 18 other U.S. House members, would prohibit loans payable in four or fewer installments, not including down payments, to purchase semiautomatic weapons, according to a copy of the bill reviewed by Bloomberg News. Violators would be subject to a $100,000 penalty. Regulators have stepped up their scrutiny of BNPL companies amid concerns the industry markets toward younger consumers and people who may be at higher risk of getting stuck in a cycle of debt. Such installment loans for weapons drew heightened scrutiny after the Uvalde, Texas, school shooter was found to have purchased a gun manufactured by Daniel Defense, which offers financing plans through Credova Financial. The company told Bloomberg that it didn't finance the gunman's purchase of firearms.

Millions losing Medicaid coverage because Biden ended COVID-19 public health emergency - Some 1.5 million people have been cut off Medicaid coverage over the past month, according to reports by the Associated Press and the Kaiser Family Foundation. These cuts, which are expected to swell and impact a staggering 8–24 million people, are a direct consequence of the Biden administration’s agreement with congressional Republicans last December on a budget deal that protected military spending but opened the way to massive cuts in social spending. Millions more will lose eligibility for other social benefits as a result of Biden’s decision to end the public health emergency declaration for COVID-19. Biden allowed the PHE declaration to expire on May 11, although the pandemic continues to rage, concealed by the refusal of federal and state authorities to collect data on the impact of COVID-19 on the population. As a result, social benefits linked to the emergency declaration have expired. Other social benefits are scheduled to expire throughout the summer. By mid-August, students with college student loan debt must begin making repayments that were suspended for the duration of the official COVID emergency. Biden’s executive action to forgive a portion of this debt, a separate measure, is currently before the Supreme Court and could be overturned by the end of this month. Still more benefits will expire at the end of the current fiscal year, on September 30. The summer months will thus bring a tidal wave of human suffering that hits not only the poorest sections of the population, but broad sections of young people and virtually the entire working class. This is under conditions where inflation and wage suppression, with the assistance of the unions, have steadily driven down the real incomes of working class families. The crisis for Medicaid recipients is the most immediate. Throughout the pandemic, in return for stepped-up federal aid, state governments were barred from disenrolling Medicaid recipients except in cases of voluntary withdrawal, a move out of state, or death. With the end of the emergency, many states have begun to aggressively disqualify Medicaid recipients, a campaign pursued with special fervor by right-wing Republican state governments in Arkansas, Indiana, Utah and other states in the South and Great Plains. Analysis by the Kaiser Family Foundation (KFF), a health policy organization, shows that at least 1.349 million Medicaid recipients have been disenrolled as of June 20, 2023, based on the most current data from 22 states. Overall, 35 percent of people with a completed renewal were disenrolled, while 65 percent had their coverage renewed. KFF places the number of people losing coverage at a low estimate of 8 million, a mid-range estimate of 17 million, and a high estimate of 24 million. Such calculations are difficult as states are not required to provide detailed figures on Medicaid disenrollment to the federal government.

House fails to override Biden’s veto of bill repealing student debt relief -The House on Wednesday failed to undo President Joe Biden’s veto of Republican-led legislation that would have repealed his plan to cancel up to $20,000 of student debt for tens of millions of Americans.The override attempt lost on a 221-206 vote, falling far short of the two-thirds majority needed to overcome a presidential veto.The result was expected since Congress passed the resolution overturning student debt relief earlier this month on a narrow margin, largely along party lines. A handful of moderate Democrats joined with Republicans to pass the measure, but it didn’t come close to creating a veto-proof majority.Biden vetoed the legislation two weeks ago, defending the debt cancellation program as vital assistance for middle- and working-class families. Republican critics argue the $400 billion plan is too costly for taxpayers and unfair to Americans who didn’t attend college or already repaid their student loans..With Wednesday’s vote, the GOP legislative effort to kill the plan under the Congressional Review Act is now over. But Biden’s program remains in limbo at the Supreme Court.The justices are preparing to rule, potentially as early as Thursday, on whether to allow the Biden administration to proceed with student debt cancellation. Republican state attorneys general and a conservative group are suing to stop the program, arguing that it’s an illegal abuse of executive power.The vetoed resolution also would have repealed the freeze on student loan repayment and interest. But Congress separately, as part of the bipartisan deal to raise the debt ceiling, passed a law that ends the payment pause in the coming months.Interest in federal student loans is slated to resume on Sept. 1, and the Education Department is preparing to begin collecting monthly payments from borrowers in October.

Organizers Warn Biden Against 'Doing Nothing' If Supreme Court Blocks Student Debt Relief -- As another week passed without a Supreme Court ruling on President Joe Biden's student debt cancellation plan, campaigners implored the White House to recognize that an unfavorable decision from the deeply corrupt, conservative-dominated judicial body does not have to spell an end to debt relief efforts.In an op-ed for Teen Vogue on Thursday, Debt Collective organizer Frederick Bell Jr. wrote that "the president still has the power to cancel student debt" even if the Supreme Court strikes down his pending plan, which invokes emergency authority under the 2003 emergency authority under the Higher Education Relief Opportunities for Students (HEROES) Act."Biden has options, and inaction cannot be one of them," Bell added, echoing a message that progressive lawmakers have sent to administration officials publicly and behind closed doors.Bell noted that the two cases currently before the Supreme Court "are not about the legality of student debt relief in general, but rather the specific legal authority Biden used.""Fortunately, there are other legal tools available," Bell wrote. "For example, since 2020, student lending experts and activists have consistently communicated to White House officials that using the 'Compromise and Settlement' power in the Higher Education Act of 1965 is a robust and viable option for broad-based student loan cancellation. That legislation states that the Department of Education can 'enforce, pay, compromise, waive, or release any right, title, claim, lien, or demand' related to federal student debt.'""Forty-three million debtors are waiting for the relief they were promised by this administration."Bell also pointed to the looming end of the student loan repayment moratorium. Under the debt ceiling agreement negotiated by the Biden White House and congressional Republicans, the freeze is supposed to end 60 days after June 30, 2023. In practice, the Biden Education Department has said student loan interest accumulation—which has also been paused since early in the coronavirus pandemic—will resume on September 1 and repayments will begin the following month. While the debt ceiling law states that the education secretary is barred from using "any authority to implement an extension," Biden administration officials insisted that they still have the ability to implement another pause in the future.If the Supreme Court blocks Biden's debt relief plan, "more than 40 million borrowers who were eligible for relief—and 16 million people who were told by the government their applications were approved—will be in the horrible position of having loans reinstated that the administration promised to erase," Bell warned Thursday."This will, predictably, disproportionately harm working-class, young, Black, and Latinx borrowers. Alternatively, Biden can decisively implement a Plan B, pursuing another legal avenue to deliver promised relief," he wrote. "Forty-three million debtors are waiting for the relief they were promised by this administration." "Biden doing nothing if his program is blocked would be as if star NBA player Nikola Jokic and the Denver Nuggets threw in the towel after the Miami Heat tied up the series in game two of the best-of-seven finals," Bell wrote. "You still have five games left. Let's play to win and finish the job."

The Supreme Court could end affirmative action. Here’s what to know. - The Supreme Court seems destined to end its term with a big rollback of the tool colleges employ to boost racial diversity on their campuses. What’s unclear is how schools fashion race-neutral workarounds to fill that gap — or if the ruling pushes colleges to retreat on a goal that’s been a priority for decades. Affirmative action in higher education has endured by relying on moderate justices like Sandra Day O’Connor, but the court remade by former President Donald Trump and Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) sounded prepared to end it during oral arguments in October. If race-conscious admissions fall, some better-resourced schools are expected to use household incomes, ZIP codes, targeted recruiting programs and other indirect methods to prop up their commitment to diversity. But among the nine states that banned the practice at their colleges years ago, the schools don’t present many lessons on how to boost the number of Black and brown students without it. “There is no substitute for race-based affirmative action,” said Liz King, senior education program director at the Leadership Conference on Civil and Human Rights, which represents more than 230 national organizations. “Affirmative action is a critical part of ensuring racial justice and equity in higher education.” The high court’s decision hinges on two cases where Students for Fair Admissions is challenging race-conscious practices at Harvard and the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill — the nation’s oldest private and public universities. At its core, the group, which says it represents about 20,000 students, has alleged that Harvard intentionally discriminates against Asian American applicants. It has also spent decades trying to get the court to overturn a ruling in the landmark Grutter v. Bollinger case, which has shaped college admissions policies since 2003. But education groups and civil rights advocates argue that banning the use of race altogether will exacerbate inequality for years to come. A race-blind admissions standard, they say, fails to account for barriers Black and brown students often face.Here are four areas that will change or intensify if the Supreme Court ends affirmative action in college admissions:

Supreme Court: States can’t sue over Biden’s immigration policies - The 8-1 decision could cut down on a flood of lawsuits recent administrations have faced from state attorneys general and governors who disagree with Washington on immigration and crime policy.The high court’s ruling found that Texas and Louisiana lacked standing to pursue litigation challenging immigration enforcement priorities established by President Joe Biden’s administration soon after he took office.It’s the second decision in eight days in which the Supreme Court has rejected lawsuits from Texas on standing grounds. Last week, the court ruled that the state did not have standing to challenge a federal law that gives preferences to Native American families in the adoptions of Native children.State standing is a key question in another major issue still awaiting decision from the court in the coming days: the legality of Biden’s decision to wipe out billions of dollars in student debt.Six states are challenging the debt-relief plan, but it’s not clear if the states have suffered the sort of concrete harm that is typically necessary to challenge a policy in court. (In a separate case, two student-loan borrowers who oppose the plan are also suing. Their legal standing is also contested.)In the immigration case, critics of the states’ approach said their claim of likely financial injury from unwarranted release of undocumented migrants was murky. But the court’s majority opinion written, by Justice Brett Kavanaugh, took a different tack and said the case was flawed because of a general principle against suits trying to force the executive branch to enforce the law against someone else.

Justice Samuel Alito faces scrutiny over trips with GOP donor, pens defensive op-ed - Samuel Alito is facing new scrutiny following a ProPublica report published late Tuesday that reveals an expensive and previously undisclosed luxury fishing trip that the justice took with a prominent conservative donor over a decade ago. Alito wrote a defensive op-ed preemptively denying wrongdoing in The Wall Street Journal earlier Tuesday.According to ProPublica’s investigation, Alito in 2008 flew on billionaire Paul Singer’s private jet on a trip that included room and board at Alaska’s pricey King Salmon Lodge. That was paid for by then-owner Robin Arkley II, who is a prolific donor to conservative legal causes, like Singer, according to the report. Singer had connections with corporate entities who later made cases in front of the Supreme Court and won with Alito’s support.The report comes amid ongoing discussions centering on the Supreme Court’s policy for gift disclosures and calls from lawmakers for ethics reform on the nation’s highest court — spurred by ProPublica’s investigations into Justice Clarence Thomas earlier this year, which found that he traveled on lavish vacations bankrolled by GOP megadonor Harlan Crow, who also paid for private school for the justice’s nephew. Separately, a POLITICO investigation found that a law firm that presented nearly two dozen cases before the Court had bought a property co-owned by Justice Neil Gorsuch.Alito declined to comment for the ProPublica story, instead bashing the outlet’s reporting ahead of its publication in a Wall Street Journal op-ed titled “ProPublica Misleads its Readers” Tuesday night.The justice offered up a vigorous denial of wrongdoing: “ProPublica has leveled two charges against me: first, that I should have recused in matters in which an entity connected with Paul Singer was a party and, second, that I was obligated to list certain items as gifts on my 2008 Financial Disclose Report. Neither charge is valid.” Alito also denies knowing of the billionaire’s connections, adding that the plane ride wasn’t a significant matter because he “allowed me to occupy what would have otherwise been an unoccupied seat.”Republicans have rallied behind the justice, accusing ProPublica of targeting the justice for political reasons. “Good for Justice Alito to push back against the leftwing hacks trying to intimidate the Supreme Court,” Sen. Tom Cotton (R-Ark.) tweeted Tuesday night.

Senate panel plans to move forward on Supreme Court ethics bill after Alito report - Senate Judiciary Chair Dick Durbin is done waiting patiently for the Supreme Court to change its ethics standards. The Illinois Democrat announced Wednesday that his panel will vote on ethics legislation for the high court in July, after he and Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse (D-R.I.) have spent months probing the matter. Durbin said the Supreme Court is in the middle of an “ethical crisis of its own making” and added that Congress will act if Chief Justice John Roberts does not address the issue on his own. Whitehouse and Durbin said the committee will vote on ethical standards legislation after the July 4 recess, lamenting that the “the highest court in the land should not have the lowest ethical standards. “Chief Justice Roberts can solve this problem this afternoon. He can establish a code of conduct and the responsibility of his justices. To disclose everything and be done with us. The alternative is he’s got to live with this is a very strong legacy,” Durbin told reporters on Wednesday afternoon. Even if Durbin can round up Democratic votes on his committee, Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell made clear he will try and sink anything on the Senate floor. Nevertheless, movement on the Judiciary Committee shows a more aggressive stance from Senate Democrats. Durbin’s statement was prompted by a ProPublica report that Justice Samuel Alito took an expensive fishing trip with prominent GOP donor Paul Singer, a story that followed another ProPublica investigation into Justice Clarence Thomas accepting luxury trips from billionaire Harlan Crow. Alito took part in a court decision that involved Singer’s business. The move by Durbin, the panel’s chair, and Whitehouse, a pugnacious liberal fighter on court issues, escalates the conflict between a Democratic Senate and the conservative court majority. It’s a fight that’s been brewing since McConnell blocked Merrick Garland’s nomination to the Supreme Court in 2016, and it is accelerating due to ProPublica’s reporting on the justices.

Samuel Alito and the Donald Trump School of Self-Immolation - Not since 1974 when New Times magazine called Sen. William Scott (R-Va.) Congress’ dumbest member and he called a press conference in response to deny the charge and thereby prove mental deficiencies has a member of the Washington elite so mishandled a critical press salvo as Supreme Court Justice Samuel A. Alito Jr. did this week. Alito, who shares with Donald Trump a toddler’s lack of impulse control, once again demonstrated his inability to plan more than one move ahead at a time after the investigative news outfit ProPublica emailed a list of questions for its story pegged to his flight to a comped 2008 luxury fishing trip in Alaska on a hedge fund billionaire’s private jet. As if to shout, “I’m not on trial here,” the justice declined to answer ProPublica’s questions, sending that message to the news organization through a court spokesperson. But in a contradictory move, Alito mounted a 1,200-word defense in the form of a Wall Street Journal op-ed to dispute ProPublica’s article — which had not yet been published. Essentially, the justice scooped the news outlet on its own story. Alito had every right to sting ProPublica before it stung him. But in his case, getting out in front of the story before it published was a little like a judge delivering a verdict after hearing the charges but before the trial had taken place. For one thing, his dense-as-a-legal-brief argument was hard to follow because it lacked the connective tissue to explain what precisely ProPublica’s piece was accusing him of. A billboard mounted on a flatbed truck reading “ProPublica Is Being Mean to Me” and driven in a circle around the Supreme Court Building would have been a more effective public relations ploy. Perhaps the most blockheaded thing about Alito’s preemption was that it gave fresh publicity to the latest installment in a growing series about the justices licking sugar off the tummies of their sugar daddies.Alito’s excuse-making was William Scott caliber but with a modern, Trumpian twist. While Alito wasn’t as incoherent as Trump was in his recent credibility-destroying appearance on Fox, the justice did himself no favors, even in an ostensibly friendly forum. Like Trump, he is not actually denying anything, just waving his hands. To wit: The seat he took on the private jet would have gone empty if he had not claimed it, he wrote. Yes, there was wine at the retreat, but it didn’t cost $1,000. He’d only spoken to his hedge fund benefactor “a handful of occasions,” and never about cases, Alito states in the Journal, as if that erases the onus of avoiding the appearance of conflict of interest. I’m half-surprised that in his self-defense, he didn’t also plead that he didn’t steal any bathroom towels from the lodge.

House GOP votes to censure Schiff over role in Trump investigations - The House GOP voted Wednesday to publicly reprimand Rep. Adam Schiff for his leading role in Democratic investigations of former President Donald Trump.The measure, which passed 213-209, formally censures Schiff and directs the House Ethics Committee to investigate his actions. All five Republican members of the House ethics panel and Rep. Ken Buck (R-Colo.) voted “present” on Wednesday’s measure.Rep. Anna Paulina Luna (R-Fla.), the sponsor of the resolution, and other conservatives tried to advance a similar censure measure last week, but 20 Republicans — objecting to language that could have resulted in a $16 million fine for Schiff, unless he resigned from Congress — joined most Democrats to sink it before it came up for a full House vote. Luna removed that provision to allay their concerns.Schiff has long been a Republican foil for his participation in the Trump probes, including the House investigation into the former president’s campaign ties to Russia and his first impeachment. Luna said Schiff had “launched an all-out political campaign against a sitting president” and “abused his privileges” as the top Democrat on the Intelligence Committee, which Speaker Kevin McCarthy removed him from earlier this year.It’s the latest example of conservative-pushed “privileged” resolutions, which require a speedy floor vote and bypass the committee process. The right flank of the House GOP also plans to force votes on other controversial measures, despite the wishes of leadership, like the impeachment of President Joe Biden and his Cabinet secretaries.Luna’s censure measure requires Schiff to stand in the well of the House chamber for a verbal rebuke in addition to triggering an ethics investigation. Democrats rallied behind Schiff after the vote as he walked up to receive the reprimand, chanting “Adam” and “shame” as McCarthy presided over the House chamber.Schiff, for his part, has embraced his role as a Republican boogeyman amid the weeks-long push by conservatives to punish him. Speaking on the House floor not long after the measure advanced, he sarcastically thanked Republicans for their “enmity” and said they flattered him with their “falsehood.”“Your words tell me that I have been effective in the defense of our democracy, and I am grateful,” he said. In a reference to Luna’s earlier version of the measure that could have imposed the heavy fine, Schiff quipped that Republicans “might as well make it $160 million. You will never deter me from doing my duty.”

Former Trump Defense secretary brands him a security threat - Painting him as a security risk, former Defense Secretary Mark Esper on Sunday added his voice to those critical of former President Donald Trump for his handling of classified information after his presidency. Esper, who served in Trump’s Cabinet, said: “People have described him as a hoarder when it comes to these type of documents. But clearly, it was unauthorized, illegal and dangerous.” Speaking on CNN’s “State of the Union,” Esper compared Trump’s legal case — he was recently indicted on 37 charges related to his post-presidency handling of secret documents — to that of Jack Teixeira, a Massachusetts Air National Guard member accused of posting secret and sensitive military documents on social media. Teixeira was indicted Thursday. “We have a case playing out right now in Massachusetts where that young airman from the Massachusetts National Guard is being charged on similar types of accounts under the Espionage Act for taking and retaining unauthorized documents that affected our national defense,” Esper told host Jake Tapper. Esper outlined scenarios in which the mishandling of classified documents could cause trouble for the United States. “Imagine if a foreign agent, another country were to discover documents that outline America’s vulnerabilities or the weaknesses of the United States military,” he said. “Think about how that could be exploited, how that could be used against us in a conflict, how an enemy could develop countermeasures, things like that. Or in the case of the most significant piece that was raised in the allegation about U.S. plans to attack Iran, think about how that affects our readiness, our ability to prosecute an attack.” We have a new app. Download the upgraded version for iOS or Android. Tapper asked Esper if he thought that Trump, if elected president in 2024, could ever be trusted with the nation’s secrets again. “Based on his actions, again, if proven true under the indictment by the special counsel, no,” Esper said. “I mean, it’s just irresponsible action that places our service members at risk, places our nation’s security at risk. You cannot have these documents floating around.”

Trump: I was too busy to sort through the boxes I took to Mar-a-Lago - Donald Trump on Monday said he did not hand over government records to the federal officials when they asked him for it because he was too busy to sift through the boxes of contents.In an interview with Fox News, the former president said that the documents that the National Archives and Records Administration insisted he return were intermingled with personal materials in containers stored at his estate in Mar-a-Lago. He added that he did not have the time to separate the personal from the governmental. “Before I send boxes over,” Trump told host Bret Baier, “I have to take all of my things out. These boxes were interspersed with all sorts of things.”“I was very busy, as you’ve sort of seen,” he explained.The comments from Trump are an admission that he did not move to satisfy the federal government’s demands that he comply with their requests to hand over the documents. It is also the fullest he has addressed the matter since being indicted for his mishandling of those documents, which allegedly included classified material. Upon leaving office, Trump took down troves of files and documents from his time as president. NARA eventually requested a full accounting of what had been taken to Mar-a-Lago. And when it was eventually discovered that some of the boxes Trump had taken included classified documents, the agency requested that the Justice Department look into the matter. The FBI eventually opened a criminal investigation, and the DOJ ultimately issued a subpoena for the records.According to the special counsel’s indictment, Trump is alleged to have moved the materials around Mar-a-Lago in order to hide the full extent of the boxes he kept from both the feds and even his own lawyers. Pressed by Baier, Trump did not deny that he told his lawyers to say he fully complied with the subpoena when he hadn’t. Instead, he said once more that he needed time to sort through the boxes to take out personal items like “golf shirts, clothing, pants, shoes.”The special counsel also says Trump openly discussed on two occasions the fact that some of the materials remained classified even as he held on to them. In his Fox News interview, Trump denied that, insisting that “everything was declassified.” He said he did not “know” if the materials he took contained military plans for a prospective strike on Iran, though he is reportedly on tape acknowledging that he kept a classified Pentagon document detailing as much.

Trump defends keeping classified docs in contentious exchange with Fox’s Baier ---Former President Donald Trump on Monday defended his retention of classified materials after leaving the White House, telling Fox News he did not have time to go through the boxes filled with the documents. “Why not just hand them over then?” Fox anchor Bret Baier asked in Trump’s first interview since being arraigned last week on federal charges. “Because I had boxes. I want to go through the boxes and get all my personal things out,” Trump responded. “I don’t want to hand that over to [the National Archives] yet. And I was very busy, as you’ve sort of seen.” Baier noted that the Justice Department’s indictment laid out how Trump allegedly told an aide to move the boxes containing classified documents at his Mar-a-Lago estate while also telling his lawyers to indicate he was cooperating. “Before I send boxes over, I have to take all of my things out,” Trump said from his club in Bedminster, N.J., where the interview was filmed. “These boxes were interspersed with all sorts of things, golf shirts, clothing, pants, shoes, there were many things.” Asked if he was aware of Iran documents being among the items in the boxes, Trump said, “Not that I know of,” while claiming everything was declassified that he took with him. Trump pleaded not guilty last Tuesday to charges on 37 counts following a Department of Justice indictment alleging he violated the Espionage Act and obstructed justice in taking classified records from his presidency and refusing to return them. Trump was indicted in connection with the investigation led by special counsel Jack Smith, with the unsealed document revealing Trump also would face charges on concealing documents and making false statements. .

Trump judge Aileen Cannon’s thin criminal trial resume comes with a twist - Aileen Cannon, the federal judge overseeing Donald Trump’s latest criminal case, has run just four, relatively routine criminal trials in her short tenure on the bench — a stark contrast to the historic and complex proceedings she’s about to undertake related to the former president. A review of the Southern District of Florida dockets show Cannon’s criminal work has consisted almost entirely of a few categories of cases: distribution of a controlled substance, illegal reentry of people who had previously been deported, felons in possession of firearms and child pornography or trafficking. Nearly all have resulted in plea agreements, and the four that did not were handled in brief trials that lasted no more than three days apiece in court. Those cases have featured few significant opinions or rulings of note on complex issues of law. And Cannon, 42, has almost always sided with prosecutors on routine challenges to evidence, motions to suppress evidence by defendants and efforts to dismiss various cases. Cannon’s thin resume, combined with her surprisingly deferential rulings to Trump — who appointed her in November 2020 — in a civil lawsuit challenging the FBI raid of his Mar-a-Lago estate last year, have raised questions about her readiness for the complexities of the first-ever federal prosecution of a former president. Prosecutors say he hoarded national military secrets at his Mar-a-Lago estate after leaving office and concealed them from government officials seeking to recover them. There’s one exception, however, to Cannon’s judicial history that has largely escaped scrutiny. For nearly one-and-a-half years, she’s shepherded acomplex, 10-defendant health care fraud case to the verge of trial, and in the course has litigated tangled and fraught issues of attorney-client privilege and motions to suppress — some of which could be precursors to battles in the upcoming Trump case. The health care fraud indictment, which was filed in Feb. 2022 and generated bursts of media attention early on, is slated to go to trial on July 10, though one of the defendants is seeking to postpone the start until Sept. 25. Five of the defendants have pleaded guilty but the others appear intent on proceeding to trial.

Pentagon documents leak suspect Jack Teixeira pleads not guilty to federal charges – Jack Teixeira, the Massachusetts Air National Guard member accused of leaking highly classified military documents on a social media platform, pleaded not guilty Wednesday to federal felony charges.Teixeira, 21, entered the pleas during a hearing in Worcester’s federal court days after he was indicted by a grand jury on six counts of willful retention and transmission of national defense information. Each count is punishable by up to 10 years in prison.Handcuffed and wearing orange jail garb, Teixeira smiled at family seated in the gallery at the start of the hearing. He stood at the defense table next to his lawyers and leaned over to say “not guilty, your honor” into the microphone after the judge read each count. The judge also denied a defense request to reconsider his detention order.Teixeira, of North Dighton, has been behind bars since his April arrest on charges stemming from the most consequential intelligence leak in years. A magistrate judge ruled last month that Teixeira must remain in jail while the case plays out, saying that releasing him would pose a risk that he would attempt to flee the country or obstruct justice.The leak left the Biden administration scrambling to assess and contain the damage among the international community and reassure allies that its secrets are safe with the U.S.

FBI resisted opening probe into Trump’s role in Jan. 6 for more than a year - Hours after he was sworn in as attorney general, Merrick Garland and his deputies gathered in a wood-paneled conference room in the Justice Department for a private briefing on the investigation he had promised to make his highest priority: bringing to justice those responsible for the attack on the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021. In the two months since the siege, federal agents had conducted 709 searches, charged 278 rioters and identified 885 likely suspects, said Michael R. Sherwin, then-acting U.S. attorney for the District of Columbia, ticking through a slide presentation. Garland and some of his deputies nodded approvingly at the stats, and the new attorney general called the progress “remarkable,” according to people in the room. Sherwin’s office, with the help of the FBI, was responsible for prosecuting all crimes stemming from the Jan. 6 attack. He had made headlines the day after by refusing to rule out the possibility that President Donald Trump himself could be culpable. “We are looking at all actors, not only the people who went into the building,” Sherwin said in response to a reporter’s question about Trump. “If the evidence fits the elements of a crime, they’re going to be charged.” But according to a copy of the briefing document, absent from Sherwin’s 11-page presentation to Garland on March 11, 2021, was any reference to Trump or his advisers — those who did not go to the Capitol riot but orchestrated events that led to it. A Washington Post investigation found that more than a year would pass before prosecutors and FBI agents jointly embarked on a formal probe of actions directed from the White House to try to steal the election. Even then, the FBI stopped short of identifying the former president as a focus of that investigation. A wariness about appearing partisan, institutional caution, and clashes over how much evidence was sufficient to investigate the actions of Trump and those around him all contributed to the slow pace. Garland and the deputy attorney general, Lisa Monaco, charted a cautious course aimed at restoring public trust in the department while some prosecutors below them chafed, feeling top officials were shying away from looking at evidence of potential crimes by Trump and those close to him, The Post found. In November 2022, after Trump announced he was again running for president, making him a potential 2024 rival to President Biden, Garland appointed special counsel Jack Smith to take over the investigation into Trump’s attempt to overturn the 2020 election. On June 8, in a separate investigation that was also turned over to the special counsel, Smith secured a grand jury indictment against the former president for mishandling classified documents after leaving office. Trump was charged with 31 counts of violating a part of the Espionage Act, as well as six counts arising from alleged efforts to mislead federal investigators. The effort to investigate Trump over classified records has had its own obstacles, including FBI agents who resisted raiding the former president’s home. But the discovery of top-secret documents in Trump’s possession triggered an urgent national security investigation that laid out a well-defined legal path for prosecutors, compared with the unprecedented task of building a case against Trump for trying to steal the election.

Hunter Biden to plead guilty in deal with feds -Hunter Biden, President Biden’s son, will plead guilty to tax crimes in a plea deal with prosecutors, and he reached a diversion agreement relating to unlawful possession of a weapon, according to court papers filed Tuesday. The plea deal, which must be accepted by a judge, likely would keep Hunter Biden out of jail. Biden, 53, has been under investigation for tax matters since 2018. He reportedly paid off his tax liability in 2020, with court documents detailing he initially failed to make tax payments of more than $100,000 in both 2017 and 2018 on income exceeding $1.5 million. Biden was charged with two counts of willful failure to pay income tax. The third charge stems from possession of a firearm in 2018, a weapon he was in possession of while using crack cocaine. Biden denied drug use when applying to secure the gun. In a separate agreement on the gun charge, the president’s son will be entered into a pretrial diversion program, meaning those charges are likely to be removed from his record if he complies with the terms of the program. “With the announcement of two agreements between my client, Hunter Biden, and the United States Attorney’s Office for the District of Delaware, it is my understanding that the five-year investigation into Hunter is resolved,” Biden attorney Christopher Clark said in a statement. A statement from David Weiss, the U.S. Attorney for Delaware, counters Clark’s claim the issue is resolved. “The investigation is ongoing,” Weiss’s office said in a release. According to The Washington Post, Biden is expected to agree to two years of probation in connection with the plea deal. “I know Hunter believes it is important to take responsibility for these mistakes he made during a period of turmoil and addiction in his life. He looks forward to continuing his recovery and moving forward,” Clark said. President Biden has repeatedly defended his son from allegations of wrongdoing. The White House on Tuesday stressed support for Hunter Biden following the announcement of the plea deal. “The President and First Lady love their son and support him as he continues to rebuild his life. We will have no further comment,” spokesperson Ian Sams said in a statement. In an interview last October, the president said his son acknowledged in a book that he noted he was not using drugs on a gun application at a time when he was battling addiction. The White House has sought to keep its distance from Hunter Biden’s ongoing legal case to avoid any implication the president was pressuring the Justice Department, and officials have repeatedly referred questions about the case to Hunter Biden’s lawyer. Upon taking office, the Biden administration allowed U.S. Attorney David Weiss, a holdover from the Trump administration, to continue to oversee the case.

McCarthy doubles down on Biden family probes after Hunter guilty plea deal - Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) said a guilty plea on tax charges for Hunter Biden, President Biden’s son, will not slow down House Republicans’ investigation into the Biden family’s business dealings. “It continues to show the two-tier system in America,” McCarthy said of Hunter Biden’s plea deal. “If you are the president’s leading political opponent, the DOJ tries to literally put you in jail and give you prison time. But if you are the president’s son, you get a sweetheart deal.” “Now, this does nothing to our investigation,” McCarthy told reporters Tuesday morning. “It actually should enhance our investigation, because the DOJ should not be able to withhold any information now saying that there’s a pending investigation. They should be able to provide [House Oversight Committee Chairman James Comer] with any information that he requires.” Hunter Biden agreed to plead guilty to tax crimes and reached a diversion agreement related to unlawful possession of a weapon. His attorney, Christopher Clark, said in a statement that his understanding was that the matter was resolved, but U.S. Attorney David C. Weiss’s office said in its own statement Tuesday that the investigation is still ongoing. Later Tuesday, McCarthy suggested that the Department of Justice’s (DOJ) claims that the investigation is ongoing is merely an effort to withhold information from the House. “How can Hunter Biden plead guilty, no jail time, and the DOJ say there’s still an investigation, try to withhold information to the House? That’s unacceptable and will not stand,” he told reporters. Pressed on if he thinks that is the DOJ’s intention, McCarthy responded, “It has to be.” “Because you cannot plead guilty, say you’re not gonna do jail time, and then say you can’t give papers to the U.S. House of Representatives — that’s not gonna stand. That’s not gonna work,” he said.

House Republicans move to consider private documents related to Hunter Biden tax probe - House Ways and Means Committee Chair Jason Smith (R-Mo.) has planned a special executive session for the committee on Thursday morning to potentially review documents protected by tax privacy laws related to an IRS probe of Hunter Biden.The move could foreshadow the public release of documents related to Hunter Biden’s taxes. Smith gave notice Tuesday that he will be exercising his unique authority as chair of the House’s tax writing committee to consider documents that are otherwise barred from disclosure because they bear information related to a private citizen’s tax information.A statement issued by Smith’s office Thursday afternoon said the session would allow committee members to review IRS whistleblower claims regarding alleged political interference into an IRS case “involving a high-profile individual” and alleged retaliation by the agency that resulted in the removal of the entire investigative team on the case. The statement did not specify if lawmakers were in possession yet of the tax information.The individual referenced at the center of the claims, President Joe Biden’s son Hunter Biden, reached an agreement detailed Tuesday in a filing in a Delaware courtin which he pleaded guilty to a pair of misdemeanor tax charges. But several Republicans, including Oversight Committee Chair James Comer(R-Ky.), immediately lambasted the agreement as a “sweetheart deal” and vowed to plow ahead on his months-long investigation of Hunter’s business dealings.Under a unique section of the tax code vested to the chairs of Congress’ tax writing committees, which was used last year by Democrats to publish former President Donald Trump’s tax returns, Smith could publicly release any private tax information belonging to Hunter Biden by a majority vote.Although it is unclear what documents are to be considered Thursday and what the committee’s plans are, Smith said in a statement that “we will follow where the facts lead and will release the appropriate details afterward.”“The balance of justice must not be skewed in favor of the wealthy and the politically connected,” Smith said.

The Burisma board, a laptop scandal and struggles with addiction: What to know about Hunter Biden’s legal troubles -- There are two layers — at a minimum — to Hunter Biden’s troubled life: There’s what he has done, and there’s what his father’s political opponents said and did about it.On Tuesday, one chapter neared a close, as federal prosecutors revealed a plea deal that will resolve a yearslong criminal investigation into Hunter Biden’s tax issues and his purchase of a gun. But Republicans’ scrutiny over the president’s son stretches beyond that criminal probe, and it is sure to persist once the plea deal is finalized.Here is a guide to the prominent struggles and scandals Hunter Biden has faced.

Trump Jr. claims double standard in Hunter Biden deal - Donald Trump Jr. railed against the plea deal struck between Hunter Biden and federal prosecutors, saying Tuesday that it “reeks of favoritism.” “The blatantly politicized nature of Joe Biden’s Justice Department under AG [Merrick] Garland couldn’t be more clear today,” Trump Jr. wrote in a statement. “The plea deal that they cut with Hunter Biden reeks of favoritism and brazenly reveals a system where there are two-tiers of Justice, wholly dependent on your political affiliation.” President Biden’s son will plead guilty to tax crimes in the plea deal made with the prosecutors and will enter a pretrial diversion program in connection to an unlawful possession of a weapon, according to court documents filed Tuesday. This comes just a week after former President Trump pleaded not guilty to 37 federal counts of mishandling classified documents and attempting to keep those documents from the government. If the plea deal is accepted by a judge, Hunter Biden will likely stay out of jail. Trump Jr., along with other Republicans, is decrying the deal struck between Biden and federal prosecutors as a double standard, pointing to how his father, the former president, was recently indicted by the Justice Department. He wrote that the while the Justice Department is taking aim at Republicans, the department will “protect” those who have “the right last name,” like Biden. “If you are a Republican, Biden’s DOJ will throw the book at you and try to put you in prison for 100 years, but if you happen to have the right last name like Hunter, they will protect you and treat you with kid gloves,” he wrote. “We are no longer a nation with equal Justice under the law, but rather something more akin to a 3rd world banana republic, where the law exists to protect the ruling class, while targeting the opposition.”

Nearly 15,000 sign petition to ban Donald Trump Jr. from going to Australia - A petition seeking to ban Donald Trump Jr. from visiting the country of Australia has garnered nearly 15,000 signatures as of Monday afternoon.The change.org petition, started by Kris Eriksen, aims to deny the former president’s eldest son a travel visa for his upcoming trip, citing concerns about Trump Jr.’s fiery rhetoric and polarizing reputation.“Donald Trump Jr is an illegal drug-taking bigoted person who should not be allowed to enter Australia for the purpose of earning himself and possibly his father any ‘Campaign Contributions,’” the petition’s description on change.org read. “Ban him from this country.”Trump Jr. is scheduled to visit Australia from July 9-11, an Australian news outlet reported, and he has speaking events in Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane. The tour is sponsored by Turning Point, a conservative nonprofit founded by activist Charlie Kirk. Reports indicate Trump Jr. will be joined by Nigel Farage, former Brexit Party leader in the United Kingdom.

Jeffrey Epstein Offered To Introduce Jes Staley To Senior UK Ministers: JPMorgan - Royal pal Jeffrey Epstein claimed to have brokered meetings between former JPMorgan banker Jes Staley and high-ranking members of the UK government, an internal investigation by the bank has found. The 22-page report, compiled after Epstein's 2019 arrest, reveals that Epstein offered to connect Staley with then-UK chancellor Alistair Darling and former business secretary Peter Mandelson, the de facto deputy prime minister, the Financial Times reports. "I’ve set up you and peter to meet in davos with darling," Epstein wrote to Staley in January 2010, referring to the World Economic Forum taking place in Switzerland. Days later, Staley emailed Epstein to say that he saw "Peter last night. Darling in 20 minutes. Will talk again with Peter this AM." Darling, meanwhile, says he has no recollection of meeting Staley - who was a senior executive at JPMorgan at the time. "Why would I?" he asked. An ensuing exchange recounted in the report suggests that Staley was interested in the pending sale of the non-North American units of Sempra Commodities by Royal Bank of Scotland, which was forced to divest the unit following a UK government bailout. Months later, JPMorgan bought the business for $1.7bn. Darling said that any meeting on government business would have been attended by civil servants and that the Treasury was not involved in the running of RBS. A person close to Mandelson said he met Staley at Davos to discuss the banking crisis but that Epstein “certainly” did not arrange the meeting. -Financial Times

Payments firm that moved $8.3 billion in 2022 loses license -Regulators in Lithuania revoked the license of UAB Payrnet, a payments firm that was part of failed UK group Railsbank Technology, citing "gross, systematic and multiple violations" of local laws.The Bank of Lithuania will start bankruptcy proceedings against Payrnet, it said in a statement Thursday, adding it also intends to ask law enforcement authorities to investigate any possible criminal offenses. Payrnet, which had a license to operate as an electronic-money institution, or EMI, across the European Union and processed some €7.5 billion ($8.3 billion) of transfers last year, violated laws linked to the prevention of money laundering and terrorist financing, the regulator said.

Fed terminates enforcement actions against Commerzbank's U.S. arm - The Federal Reserve Board of Governors terminated a trio of enforcement actions against the New York branch of Germany's Commerzbank in connection with money laundering and sanctions violations. The moves end the German bank's more than decade-long entanglement with U.S. regulators and law enforcement agencies. Commerzbank's New York outfit had been the subject of legal and regulatory scrutiny dating back to 2012. A probe by the Department of Justice, the Treasury Department's Office of Foreign Asset Control and other agencies found that the bank was facilitating transactions that violated U.S. sanctions against Iran, Cuba, Sudan and Burma, as well as various targeted individuals. Between 2002 and 2010, the bank processed roughly 60,000 prohibited transactions with a total value of $253 million, according to the New York State Department of Financial Services, the state's financial regulatory authority. Commerzbank owned up to the issues in 2015 and has sought to cooperate with investigators. The bank did not immediately respond Friday to a request for comment. As a result of investigations by the Fed, NYDFS, OFAC, the DOJ and the Manhattan district attorney, the bank ended up paying approximately $1.45 billion in total penalties, including $342 million to settle criminal charges, as well as $376 million in civil penalties paid to the Fed and New York State. The remaining $734 million in penalties — for Bank Secrecy Act/Anti-Money Laundering (BSA/AML) violations — were paid to the U.S. government, the Fed and New York state regulators. The Fed first cited Commerzbank's New York branch in 2012 for failing to comply with anti-money laundering requirements and the Bank Secrecy Act when processing bulk cash transactions for overseas clients. The bank agreed to review past transactions to identify instances of noncompliance. It also agreed to devise plans for improving its suspicious activity monitoring and reporting process, and for overhauling its BSA/AML compliance program. Subsequent findings by the Fed led to cease-and-desist orders against Commerzbank in 2013 and 2015. Those orders required the bank to implement new training programs and oversight mechanisms, and to be subjected to enhanced reporting requirements. The 2015 order also mandated the termination of employees who played a "central role" in processing the prohibited transactions, and it barred Commerzbank from hiring any of them back in the future.

Fed's top regulator says changes to supervision coming later this year -The Federal Reserve's chief regulator said his post banking crisis reform effort is entering a new phase. Speaking during a conference on governance and culture in the financial services sector, Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr said he will oversee an initiative to overhaul bank supervision across the Federal Reserve System during the remainder of this year. "Over the next six months, we're going to do a project that looks systemwide at the areas where we can enhance our supervisory culture, our practices, our behaviors, ours tools and also where we need to change our regulation of firms," Barr said at the event, which was hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. "We're extremely focused on that."Barr said the changes will be informed by three primary inputs. The first is the lengthy report compiled by Fed staffers about the failure of Silicon Valley Bank this spring — a six-week effort that Barr oversaw directly. The others are a 2009 report from the New York Fed on the future of supervision and an internal "blue sky visioning process" about alternative approaches to bank supervision. One potential change already being explored is the incorporation of a tool Barr referred to as "reverse stress testing." Unlike a traditional stress test, in which supervisors measure how a bank's balance sheet reacts to a fixed stressful scenario, they, instead, determine what kind of conditions a bank would have to face before failing to determine its greatest points of vulnerability."You obviously can then use that as a tool for looking at ways that a firm itself might be more resilient," Barr said. "And you can use it as an exercise to help you to free up the brain to think about things that are not inside the normal observed pattern."The adoption of reverse stress testing is still a nascent idea within the broader supervisory reform effort, Barr said, but he noted that it embodies the Fed's goal of thinking outside the box about potential risks.

Powell: changes to capital rules won't be felt for 'some years' -The Federal Reserve Board of Governors is poised to cast an initial vote on proposed capital changes sometime this summer, but Chair Jerome Powell said the effects of any policy changes won't be felt for "some years." Powell testified in front of the House Financial Services Committee on Wednesday in the first of what will be two congressional appearances this week. The hearing was convened for Powell to deliver the Fed's semiannual monetary policy report, but issues of regulation and supervisionwere front and center during the three-hour session. Powell said no proposal has been put before the board yet and he declined to say whether he felt changes to capital rules were necessary. But, he said, some level of regulatory and supervisory reform was required in light of the failure of Silicon Valley Bank in March. The debate to be had, he said, is how much change is appropriate."There's broad agreement … that capital is strong, and, you know, the question there will be, what sorts of increases will be justified. That's what we'll be looking at," he said. "The other thing is to point out the trade-off [of] higher capital. You know, the benefit of it, of course, is to have stronger banks that can lend and maybe survive in more kinds of crisis environments. But, you know, there are costs as well. … It's going to be as always a question of weighing and balancing those costs."Powell confirmed that an initial proposal on regulatory changes was likely to be put before the full Board of Governors this summer. He noted that the vote, as is customary, will take place behind closed doors, adding that such a meeting might have to be held virtually to accommodate board members' travel arrangements.During the hearing, numerous committee members — primarily Republicans — expressed concerns about potential capital changes being too burdensome on smaller institutions, particularly community and regional banks that have already seen their business models stressed by rapidly rising interest rates. Several also cited recent news reports that large banks could see their capital obligations increase by 20%, and voiced concerns about a potential dampening effect on credit conditions."Our already well-capitalized banks withstood the COVID shock and severe Fed stress tests as the economy is facing headwinds from the Fed's own rapid rate hikes," Rep. Andy Barr, R-Ky., said during the hearing. "Now is not the time to be engineering massive new regulatory changes or hindering regional banks, which have already been under stress."'

Fed's Powell: Smaller banks likely to be exempt from higher capital rules -New rules expected to require that banks keep more capital almost certainly won't apply to smaller institutions, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said Thursday. Addressing concerns over proposals to tighten the reins on bigger banks, Powell told members of the Senate Banking Committee that the rules are still in draft stage. At the same time, he also raised concerns about what impact higher capital requirements would have on lending. "More capital means more stable banks and stronger banks, but there's also a trade-off there," he said in the second day of his semiannual testimony on monetary policy. "You've got to make a judgment about where you draw that line." In Powell's understanding, banks below $100 billion in assets won't be affected by any new requirements. That provided some relief for Republican lawmakers who questioned whether the changes were necessary, as Powell faced multiple questions about the future of regulation and supervision. If that's the case, the new rules would affect the top 25 or so banks in the U.S. The questions, and the move to reexamine regulations, follow the March tumult in the industry, in which Silicon Valley Bank and two other large regionals were shuttered following deposit runs. Lawmakers and Biden administration regulators have been pushing for a return to more stringent requirements after larger regionals were given a break in changes made in 2018. Fed Chair Jerome Powell: We understand the importance of community banks In separate testimony Thursday, FDIC Chair Martin Gruenberg said the upcoming rules could apply so-called Basel III international standards to banks in the $100 billion to $250 billion asset range. The changes are not expected to be applied until sometime in 2024. Michael Barr, the Fed's vice chair for supervision, has said they likely will take years to implement fully. "The capital requirements will be very, very skewed to the eight largest banks," Powell said. "There may be some capital increases for other banks. None of this should affect banks under $100 billion." Even with the exemption for smaller institutions, the looming changes represent an adjustment in thinking that Powell previously had supported, specifically that regulations should be tailored for both small and midsized banks. Gruenberg's comments, for instance, "support our view that banking regulators are biased toward higher capital levels," Raymond James' Washington policy analyst Ed Mills said in a client note. The American Bankers Association criticized the move toward increase requirements that have been reported to be 20% higher. "We have long believed that regulation should be tailored to a bank's risk and business model," ABA President Rob Nichols said in a statement. "Arbitrary asset thresholds and changes not justified by rigorous data and evidence are a mistake that will only make it harder for banks of all sizes to meet the needs of their customers, clients and communities while driving financial activity to less-regulated nonbanks." Powell faced little in the way of hostile questioning despite concerns raised over the SVB failure. He did face some grilling from Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., a frequent critic who charged Thursday that Powell is "ultimately responsible for the team of supervisors who fell down on the job" when SVB failed. Powell replied that the Fed "learned some lessons" from the episode. "The main responsibility I take is to learn the right lessons from this and to undertake to address them so we don't have a situation like this where we had unexpectedly a large bank fail and spread contagion into the banking system. That's not supposed to happen, and we need to take appropriate steps to make sure it doesn't happen again," he said.

Gruenberg: Basel proposal is imminent, could cover more midsize banks — Banking regulators will soon release for public comment a proposed rule implementing aspects of the most recent iteration of the Basel III standards, Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. Chairman Martin J. Gruenberg said Thursday. The standards, most recently updated in 2017 by the Basel Committee on Bank Supervision, form an international capital framework meant to provide guidance for the committee's member countries. "The FDIC, together with the Federal Reserve and the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, will issue a notice of proposed rulemaking to seek public comment on changes to the U.S capital framework to consider how best to incorporate the finalization of Basel III," Gruenberg said in a speech at the Peterson Institute for International Economics.In light of recent bank failures, the regulators are considering whether to apply the proposed new rule to banks with assets over $100 billion, Gruenberg said. "If we had any doubt that the failure of banks in this size category can have financial stability consequences, that has been answered by recent experience," he said.Gruenberg also said that unrealized losses on banks' securities portfolios — a major contributor to the failure of Silicon Valley Bank in March — should be factored into capital requirements.The Basel III framework would have required Silicon Valley Bank, he said, to recognize in its capital the unrealized losses on its available-for-sale securities that led to a run on its deposits.Gruenberg said that "because there would have been more capital held against these assets," the liquidity run at SVB might have been avoided under a scenario where the Basel III standards were in place. The proposed rule, which will be issued pursuant to an update to the 2010 Basel III standards — colloquially known as the "Basel IV" standards, finalized in 2017 — is expected to increase the amount of risk-based capital that banks must hold.Community banks, Gruenberg said, will not be subject to the proposed rule, given their smaller scale. The estimated capital impact on other banking organizations will be described in the notice of proposed rulemaking, he said. Some in the banking industry have argued that higher capital requirements could cause banks to lend more selectively. But Gruenberg said that reeling in especially excessive lending is a positive for the long-term availability of credit. Credit is valuable to the extent that it is well underwritten, fostering the long-term strength of the banking system, he said.

Senate advances post-SVB bank crackdown - Sherrod Brown strikes banking deal with Tim Scott, Elizabeth Warren and J.D. Vance --The Senate Banking Committee in a bipartisan vote Wednesday agreed to ratchet up penalties for the executives of failed lenders, increase oversight of the Federal Reserve and restrict megabank takeovers, in Washington’s most significant response yet to this year’s banking turmoil.The committee approved the bill in a 21-2 vote, overcoming a rift between Senate Banking Chair Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio), who negotiated the legislation with Sens. Tim Scott (R-S.C.), and Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.),who had been pushing her own bipartisan plan in recent weeks. Warren on Wednesday called the final product a “reasonable compromise.” Just two Republicans — Sens. Thom Tillis of North Carolina and Bill Hagerty of Tennessee — voted against the bill.“For years and years, we’ve tried to hold banks accountable,” Brown told reporters. “Of course, there will be some people that think it didn’t go far enough or went too far. This is a huge victory for consumers, for the banking system, for honest bankers and for the whole country.”Brown and Scott’s compromise, which united progressives, conservatives and moderates on the committee, represents Congress’s most viable political option for revamping the banking system following the rescues of troubled lenders Silicon Valley Bank, Signature Bank and First Republic earlier this year. The bill reflects a focus by lawmakers on executive mismanagement and regulatory supervision failures. President Joe Biden has urged Congress to send him a bill that would strengthen executive accountability. House Republicans have not pursued similar legislation to crack down on executives, though they may be enticed by a provision that would beef up oversight of the Fed, which echoes a bill from Rep. Andy Barr (R-Ky.).House Financial Services Chair Patrick McHenry (R-N.C.) has yet to outright dismiss the plan, which was negotiated by Scott as he seeks the GOP presidential nomination. McHenry has said his panel will review it. Brown told reporters Wednesday that he spoke with McHenry a few weeks ago about the bill and other issues but got no commitments. The level of support makes it hard for House Republicans to ignore. Barr, a senior member of the Financial Services Committee, said in an interview that focusing on executive compensation rather than failures by regulators was a “distraction” – though he said he was “interested to hear that vote tally.”

House Democrats write bill in response to risk chief vacancy at SVB -- For about eight months last year, as Silicon Valley Bank struggled to manage rising interest rates and a downturn in the technology sector, its chief risk officer job went unfilled. Now, a new bill aims to make sure that doesn't happen again. Legislation introduced this week by Democrats on the House Financial Services Committee seeks to codify regulatory requirements that large banks have a chief risk officer in place. The bill, sponsored by Rep. Sean Casten, D-Ill., would require large banks to inform regulators of a chief risk officer vacancy within 24 hours of such a vacancy. Within seven days, they would have to file a plan with regulators outlining how they intend to "search for and promptly hire a well-qualified" chief risk officer. If the job is still available after 60 days, the legislation would cap the bank's asset growth until the position is filled. The bank would also be required to inform the public of the vacancy. In an interview Thursday, Casten said that Silicon Valley Bank's lack of a chief risk officer for eight months "created a significant gap in the public's understanding" of its risk profile. "There are a whole lot of circumstances where you might have to replace" a chief risk officer, Casten said. "But if you have a concern that your bank does not currently have a risk officer that is sophisticated enough to deal with the risk your bank is taking, then for goodness sake, you shouldn't be growing and getting to the point where you have systemic risk to the system." The bill is one of 11 pieces of legislation that House Democrats have introduced in response to the recent failures of Silicon Valley Bank, First Republic Bank and Signature Bank. The bills include proposals aimed at increasing the accountability of executives in charge of failed banks, restricting stock sales by executives whose banks haven't resolved regulatory citations and excluding the nation's smallest banks from paying special assessment fees that the Federal Depository Insurance Corp. currently charges to cover the costs of bank failures. Three of the proposals were introduced by Rep. Maxine Waters, D-Calif., the highest-ranking Democrat on the House Financial Services Committee. One of her measures calls for large banks without holding companies to be subject to capital, liquidity, stress testing and resolution planning requirements that are similar to those of large banks with holding companies. The other two bills introduced by Waters call for expanding regulatory authority both to claw back executive compensation and prohibit bank executives' stock sales when their institutions receive a cease-and-desist order for not complying with the law.

Failed-bank CEO pay has scrambled the Senate's partisanship — Between a tough upcoming Senate race and pressure from the Democratic party's more progressive core, Senate Banking Committee Sen. Chair Sherrod Brown has a narrow tightrope to walk at Wednesday's markup of executive compensation legislation. It will be the first markup since Brown took control of the committee after Democrats won the Senate in 2020. Brown, D-Ohio, and ranking member Sen. Tim Scott, R-S.C., plan to discuss their version of a bill that would give the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. more ability to take back the compensation of failed bank executives. The legislation took shape amid bipartisan anger about the large bonuses received by executives at Silicon Valley Bank, Signature Bank and First Republic Bank. Silicon Valley Bank CEO Greg Becker drew particular ire in light of certain decisions that he made before the bank failed, which in the eyes of some lawmakers led to SVB's downfall.It could be a smart move politically for both Brown and Scott to pass some kind of legislation on executive compensation, even if the bill isn't exactly what either party would fully prefer. Brown faces one of the toughest Democratic reelection battles in 2024, and Scott is challenging former President Donald Trump in the Republican presidential primary. "Something, here, is better than nothing," said Todd Phillips, principal at Phillips Policy Consulting. With support from the panel's chair and ranking member, the bill is likely to pass through the committee, which would be an impressive accomplishment for Brown and Scott ahead of election season, especially in a Congress that's been notoriously gridlocked when it comes to policy discussions. "If compensation reform becomes real, it will be the most consequential change on Wall Street in eons," said Bartlett Naylor, financial policy advocate at Public Citizen and a former Senate Banking Committee staffer. The legislation is being considered, however, amid tensions with lawmakers who would prefer more sweeping measures. Unusually, a similar bill introduced by Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., a powerful voice in Congress's financial policy world, has Republican co-sponsors, including Brown's fellow Ohioan Sen. J.D. Vance. In fact, both bills have bipartisan support. Brown's legislation was negotiated with Scott, while Warren's has the backing of Republicans Vance, Katie Britt of Alabama, Kevin Cramer of North Dakota, Josh Hawley of Missouri and Mike Braun of Indiana.

Executive pay clawback bill clears crucial Senate hurdle --— The Senate Banking Committee sent its executive compensation clawback bill to the full Senate, alongside critical support from Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., and her bipartisan group of lawmakers who wanted harsher measures for bank executives. The RECOUP Act, introduced by Senate Banking Committee Chairman Sherrod Brown, D-Ohio, and ranking member Tim Scott, R-N.C., passed through the committee in a 21-2 vote. It comes amid bipartisan ire directed toward the large bonuses given to the leaders of Silicon Valley Bank, Signature Bank and First Republic Bank in the time preceding the institutions' failures earlier this year. Only Sens. Thom Tillis, R-N.C., and Bill Hagerty, R-Tenn., voted against the bill. "I still think it's too expansive," Tillis said during a markup for the bill on Wednesday. "We're not making the distinction between bad management decisions and management malpractice." The panel did not vote down any amendments, instead relying on the lawmakers that offered them to withdraw. An opposing bill, backed by Warren and some committee Republicans,including Sens. J.D. Vance of Ohio, Katie Britt of Alabama and Kevin Cramer of North Dakota, was not considered at the markup. All of those lawmakers, however, ultimately supported the Brown-Scott bill. "The RECOUP Act is a reasonable compromise that significantly improves the oversight of bank executives," Warren said during the markup. "Every member of Congress in the Senate and House should support it. I hope we can get this done quickly."

DOJ signals closer scrutiny of bank mergers - The Department of Justice will expand the number of considerations in its bank merger review process, the department's top antitrust cop said Tuesday. Under revised antitrust guidelines, branch overlaps and the share of local deposits held by the two merging banks will no longer be the main considerations in determining the competitive effects of a deal, Assistant Attorney General Jonathan Kanter said. Instead, the Justice Department wants to look at a number of other factors in gauging the impact that mergers have on concentration and competition. The speech was interpreted as a hint that banks seeking merger approvals could face tougher times ahead, and as a go-ahead signal for policymakers who have been eager to reform bank merger policy since the onset of the Biden administration. Kanter did not provide a timeline for the release of the DOJ's revised guidelines. But he did offer a preview of the forthcoming changes in how the department analyzes proposed mergers. "These analyses will include consideration of concentration levels across a wide range of appropriate metrics and not just local deposits and branch overlaps," Kanter, who heads the DOJ's antitrust division, said in a speech at the Brookings Institution. "Indeed, the division and the federal banking agencies are working together to augment the data sources we use when calculating market concentration to ensure we are relying on the best data possible and using state-of-the-art tools to assess all relevant dimensions of competition," he added.

CFPB says consumers in the South face banking deserts, higher rates --Rural counties in Southern states have fewer bank branches and residents are denied home loans at higher rates compared to other regions of the country, according to the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau. The CFPB on Wednesday issued two reports analyzing banking and consumer credit trends in the South, an eight-state region where roughly 7 million people have lived in poverty for at least 30 years. Many areas of the South are considered "banking deserts" because of the dearth of banks and credit unions, particularly in rural areas. The Southern region also has fewer branches per resident than elsewhere in the country, with 3.6 branches per 10,000 people, compared to five nationally. Two states — Mississippi and Louisiana — have the highest unbanked rates in the country, at 11.1% and 8.1% respectively, compared with the national average of 4.5%. "The rural South faces distinct challenges when it comes to fair access to banking," CFPB Director Rohit Chopra said in a press release. "Understanding regional differences across the country will help us determine where financial marketplaces can work better for all."The lack of bank branches alone may be "a driving factor in limited access to financial services," the CFPB said, because roughly 30% of rural households in the South lack quality broadband access, making online banking inaccessible. Not only do Southern consumers have more difficulties accessing credit, they also face higher interest rates. Rural consumers in Southern states apply for mortgages at the same rate as consumers nationwide, yet roughly 27% of Southern applicants in rural counties have home loan applications denied compared with 11% nationally, the CFPB said. Southern residents also pay slightly higher interest rates of 3.51%, on average, compared to 3.13% nationally, according to one of the reports titled: "Banking and Credit Access in the Southern Region of the U.S."Another report, "Consumer Finances in Rural Areas of the Southern Region," compares consumer financial experiences and outcomes in rural communities in Southern states with other parts of the country.

'A widening gap filled with risk': Jo Ann Barefoot on regtech innovation -Recent bank failures, the rise of generative AI and the continued questions around crypto have made regulation technology, or regtech, a rising focus in financial services. But to Jo Ann Barefoot, regtech has been the main focus for years. Barefoot's work in regtech tackles two angles: one is using technology to innovate regulation and the other is updating regulation to keep up with technology. She uses the phrase "gradual, but urgent" to describe the imperative for regulators to move forward with regtech. "I think we can fix this problem," Barefoot said. "We're in a race against time. I think if we don't do a good job with this, the world will be a much worse place. Some of these new technologies are going to do a lot of harm unless we're smart about how we regulate them, and how we craft best practice around them. And if we do this right, the world could be a much better place." In 2019, Barefoot and David Ehrich founded the Alliance for Innovative Regulation, which works with institutions, companies, trade groups and government bodies to accelerate their regtech knowledge and capabilities. Barefoot said that better technology tools to regulate, along with better regulation around technology, can make the financial system more accessible and less biased, and prevent crimes like money laundering, human trafficking and terrorism.

BlackRock files for bitcoin ETF in push into crypto (Reuters) - BlackRock, the world's biggest asset manager, on Thursday filed for a bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) that would allow investors to get exposure to the cryptocurrency, as the asset class comes under intense regulatory scrutiny. BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust will use Coinbase Custody as its custodian, according to a filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). The U.S. regulator has yet to approve any applications for spot bitcoin ETFs. Last year, BlackRock launched a spot bitcoin private trust for institutional clients in the United States. The move comes at a time when the global cryptocurrency industry has been caught in the crosshairs of the U.S. securities regulator on alleged violations of securities laws. Earlier this month, the regulator sued major exchanges Coinbase and Binance in high-profile lawsuits that reverberated through the digital assets industry. "The fact that BlackRock, a well-respected and established asset management company, has filed for a Bitcoin ETF could be seen as a positive development in the quest for regulatory approval," A spot bitcoin ETF would track bitcoin's underlying market price. Proponents say an ETF would give investors exposure to bitcoin without directly buying it. The SEC rejected Grayscale Investment LLC’s application last year to convert its flagship spot Grayscale Bitcoin Trust GBTC.PK into an ETF. Grayscale sued the SEC, claiming that the regulator was acting arbitrarily in rejecting applications for spot bitcoin ETFs when it had previously approved bitcoin futures ETFs. The SEC has also rejected proposals for spot bitcoin ETFs from firms including Fidelity, Cboe Global Markets and NYDIG.

U.S. judge considers whether Terraform Labs' cryptocurrencies were securities (Reuters) -A U.S. judge considered whether the digital assets created by Terraform Labs were securities at a hearing on Thursday, a question central to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission’s fraud case against the company and its founder Do Kwon. Kwon and Terraform Labs were behind two cryptocurrencies whose implosion roiled crypto markets around the world last year. They have asked U.S. District Judge Jed Rakoff in Manhattan to dismiss the SEC's case alleging they defrauded investors and sold billions of dollars in digital assets that were unregistered securities. TerraUSD, an algorithmic stablecoin supposed to maintain a 1:1 peg to the U.S. dollar, derived its value through another paired token called Luna. Both tokens lost nearly all their value when TerraUSD, also known as UST, slipped below its 1:1 dollar peg in May 2022. Prior to its collapse on May 9, TerraUSD had a market cap of more than $18.5 billion and was the 10th-largest cryptocurrency. According to the SEC's complaint, Terraform Labs and Kwon misled investors about the stability of UST, and claimed that the firm's crypto tokens would increase in value. At the hearing, Rakoff questioned whether Terraform Labs offering of a so-called Anchor protocol, which offered up to 20% returns on deposits of TerraUSD, shouldn’t be considered a security. “It is something you created, that only people who had taken this first step could take advantage of. I don’t see why that’s not a securities contract at that point,” he said. Terraform Labs and Kwon argue the case should be dismissed because its digital assets do not fit the definition of securities and the SEC lacks authority over the industry.

Binance issues cease and desist notice to "Binance Nigeria Limited" (Reuters) -Binance has issued a cease and desist order to "Binance Nigeria Limited", Binance CEO Changpeng Zhao said in a tweet on Sunday, calling the Nigerian company a "scammer entity". Earlier this month, Nigeria's markets regulator ordered Binance to halt its operations in the country, saying local unit "Binance Nigeria Limited" that courted Nigerian investors through a website was not registered or regulated, making it illegal. Binance, the world's biggest cryptocurrency exchange, has faced a string of setbacks recently, announcing plans to leave the Netherlands, Cyprus, Canada and Australia, and being charged by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). The SEC sued Binance and Zhao earlier this month alleging that the company artificially inflated its trading volumes, diverted customer funds, and misled investors about its market surveillance controls. Binance disputes the SEC charges.

IMF working on global central bank digital currency platform (Reuters) -The International Monetary Fund (IMF) is working on a platform for central bank digital currencies (CDBCs) to enable transactions between countries, IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said on Monday. "CBDCs should not be fragmented national propositions... To have more efficient and fairer transactions we need systems that connect countries: we need interoperability," Georgieva told a conference attended by African central banks in Rabat, Morocco. "For this reason at the IMF, we are working on the concept of a global CBDC platform," she said. The IMF wants central banks to agree on a common regulatory framework for digital currencies that will allow global interoperability. Failure to agree on a common platform would create a vacuum that would likely be filled by cryptocurrencies, she said. A CBDC is a digital currency controlled by the central bank, while cryptocurrencies are nearly always decentralised. Already 114 central banks are at some stage of CBDC exploration, "with about 10 already crossing the finish line", she said. "If countries develop CDBCs only for domestic deployment we are underutilizing their capacity," she added. CBDCs could also help promote financial inclusion and make remittances cheaper, she said, noting that the average cost of money transfers stands at 6.3% amounting to $44 billion annually. Georgieva stressed that CBDCs should be backed by assets and added that cryptocurrencies are an investment opportunity when backed by assets, but when they are not they are a “speculative investment".

SEC boss Gary Gensler faces ethics scrutiny over SBF powwow -- Questions are multiplying around a 45-minute Zoom call that SEC Chair Gary Gensler held in March 2022 with disgraced crypto mogul Sam Bankman-Fried — including whether the controversial powwow got advance approval by the agency’s ethics team, On The Money has learned.The now-infamous virtual meeting — which came six months before Bankman-Fried was arrested on epic fraud charges — has stoked criticism of Gensler over alleged conflicts of interest and cozy ties to the 31-year-old accused fraudster.Now, a document recently obtained through the Freedom of Information Act shows that there is no record that Gensler ever requested permission from the SEC’s Office of the Ethics Counsel to meet with SBF. Not only is that a breach of the agency’s own protocol, it’s also likely that if Gensler had asked for permission he would have been refused, according to experts.A spokesman for the SEC said Gensler had approval for the meeting from the SEC’s ethics team but would not produce any documentation to support the claim.The SEC declined further comment despite repeated requests for clarification.

Judge blocks Bankman-Fried’s attempt to obtain key documents in fraud prosecution: Report -Sam Bankman-Fried, the co-founder of FTX, has been denied his request to obtain documents from a Silicon Valley law firm, Fenwick & West LLP, as part of his defense strategy in his ongoing federal fraud case, Bloomberg reported. Bankman-Fried had hoped to use thes documents to support his claim that he relied on legal advice while engaging in the activities for which he is currently facing prosecution.In a recent development, Bankman-Fried’s legal team approached the judge overseeing the case, urging the prosecution to hand over the documents obtained from Fenwick & West or to allow them to be obtained directly through a subpoena. However, U.S. District Judge Lewis Kaplan dismissed the request, calling it a "fishing expedition” that would not be justified.In preparation for his defense, Bankman-Fried’s legal team had planned to argue that he had relied on the advice provided by the law firm Fenwick & West. Bloomberg noted that this strategy is often employed by criminal defendants to counter prosecutors’ claims of intentional lawbreaking. The counsel from Fenwick & West reportedly covered various topics, including the use of encrypted messaging apps, multimillion-dollar loans to FTX executives and compliance with United States banking regulations, which Bankman-Fried’s lawyers have argued are integral to the charges leveled against their client.Bankman-Fried, who is facing two criminal trials, has been accused of orchestrating a complex fraud scheme involving the misappropriation of billions of dollars in FTX customer funds. The funds were allegedly used for high-risk investments, personal expenses and even political donations.On June 22, FTX initiated a lawsuit in the U.S. Bankruptcy Court for the District of Delaware, aiming to recover more than $700 million from investment firms linked to the company. The lawsuit targets K5 Global, Mount Olympus Capital and SGN Albany Capital, along with their affiliated entities and K5 co-owners Michael Kives and Bryan Baum. FTX alleges that funds were transferred from its affiliated firm, Alameda Research, to these entities through shell companies, and it seeks to reclaim the funds as avoidable transactions.

FTX's Sister Firm Alameda Seeks Return of $700M Bankman-Fried Paid for Celebrity, Political Access - Alameda Research, the hedge fund arm of the bankrupt FTX empire, is seeking the return of $700 million founder Sam Bankman-Fried appears to have paid for access to celebrities and politicians.The billions promised to “super networkers” Michael Kives and Bryan Baum show Bankman-Fried’s disregard for formalities in spending money from companies he treated as a “slush fund,” lawyers for FTX’s new management said in the Thursday court filing.Kives – a former aide to both Bill and Hillary Clinton – and Baum “acted with dishonest minds” by accepting money, which personally benefited Bankman-Fried without providing Alameda with any equivalent payoff, the allegations read.“Bankman-Fried treated the legal entities that he controlled as a slush fund operated with a near-total disregard for corporate formalities,” the filing by FTX added, echoing previous criticisms of poor management at the exchange, which filed for bankruptcy in November.Bankman-Fried appeared starstruck by a February 2022 party at Kives’ house where fellow guests included a former Presidential candidate, actors, reality TV stars, musicians and multiple billionaires. Within weeks, Bankman-Fried had signed a document promising to invest billions in Kives’ and Baum’s companies, with little details on what FTX would gain in return, the filing said.“The Term Sheet was little more than a cursory list of investment ideas” on which “no meaningful due diligence was conducted,” the filing said, citing an internal note in which Bankman-Fried said the company could “consider endorsements with their friends … work with them on Democratic politics … invest in them or some stuff, idk [I don’t know].”Bankman-Fried also failed to clarify whether Baum was an employee of FTX or a third party, saying in an internal document that “it’s sorta complicated and liminal and unclear. Bryan lives in the uncanny valley.”Transfers of $700 million made from Bankman-Fried’s companies to Kives’ and Baum’s had the badges of fraud under bankruptcy law, being concealed, having inflated value, and being made when FTX was about to become insolvent, the filing said.

FTX sues former Hillary Clinton aide over $700 million in 'misappropriated funds' --FTX is seeking to claw back some $700 million from a former aide to Hillary Clinton-turned Hollywood super agent who was allegedly showered with cash by disgraced fallen crypto mogul Sam Bankman-Fried.The bankrupt cryptocurrency exchange took legal action on Thursday against Michael Kives, who was an assistant to then-Sen. Hillary Clinton (D-N.Y.), and his company, K5 Global, and firm co-founder Bryan Baum.According to court papers filed in bankruptcy court in Delaware, Bankman-Fried authorized the transfer of $700 million to K5 entities in 2022, and he leaned on K5’s celebrity and business connections in his effort to obtain rescue financing in the days before FTX went bankrupt in November 2022.As The Post reported in December, Kives — whose celebrity connections include Warren Buffett, Arnold Schwarzenegger, Katy Perry, and Kendall Jenner — stood to lose hundreds of millions of dollars as a result of K5 Global’s business relationship with FTX’s now-defunct investment arm, Alameda Research.Bankman-Fried, who has been indicted on fraud and money laundering charges by the feds, described Kives as “probably, the most connected person I’ve ever met,” and “a one-stop shop” for political relationships and celebrity partnerships, according to the complaint.

Santander US unveils three-year community benefits plan --Santander US committed $13.6 billion this week to community reinvestment and sustainable finance initiatives. The Boston-based bank agreed to a three-year, $4.6 billion community benefits plan to expand lending and investments in lower- to middle-income communities within its East Coast footprint. Separately, it pledged to invest $9 billion over three years in sustainable finance efforts, such as the generation of renewable energy or the rollout of electric vehicles. "Our company and our industry is only as healthy as the communities in which we do business," Santander US CEO Tim Wennes said in an interview. The bank's community benefits plan was developed in partnership with the National Community Reinvestment Coalition and more than 30 local organizations. It was not created in connection with efforts to get regulatory approval for a merger, as is often the case. Jesse Van Tol, National Community Reinvestment Coalition's president and CEO, said that Santander US should be "applauded" for voluntarily committing to a community benefits plan. "They firmly believe that this kind of framework has made their bank a better bank," said Van Tol. The plan calls for Santander US to double its direct spending on supplier diversity, and to provide $1.8 billion in community development loans, $1.5 billion for small-business lending, around $1 billion for affordable housing investments and $100 million in charitable giving.

Fannie Mae transfers $789 million in mortgage credit risk -Fannie Mae is sharing more credit risk with the private sector, completing two offerings consisting of single-family pools totaling 81,000 mortgages with a combined unpaid balance of $26.6 billion.The government-sponsored enterprise transferred $789 million of mortgage credit risk to 21 private insurers and reinsurers, according to a press release Thursday. The pools are the sixth and seventh such transactions this year, adding to the $25.2 billion of insurance coverage the GSE has acquired through its Credit Insurance Risk Transfer program.The deal was brokered by professional services firm Aon PLC and sub-brokered by a new partner, Protecdiv, a minority business enterprise that is an insurance and reinsurance broker. "We hope their participation will help draw more diverse-led firms into this space," said Rob Schaefer, vice president of Capital Markets at Fannie Mae. The first pool, CIRT 2023-6, covers 30,000 single-family mortgages with a combined outstanding UPB of $9.65 billion. The mortgages have loan-to-value ratios between 60.01% and 80%. Fannie said it would retain risk for the first 130 basis points of loss on the pool. After the $125 million loss would be absorbed, 20 reinsurers will cover the next 405 basis points of loss up to $391 million. The second pool, CIRT 2023-7, has 51,000 single-family mortgages with an unpaid principal balance of $16.9 billion and LTVs between 80.01% and 97%, according to Fannie. The GSE will retain risk for the first 155 basis points of loss, or $262 million, while 20 reinsurers will cover the next $398 million, or 235 basis points of loss.The insurance is based on actual losses for 12.5 years, but the coverage can be reduced after a period of one year and each month thereafter depending on paydowns and serious delinquencies. Fannie can also pay a cancellation fee and opt out any time after five years.

GOP bill that would roll back mortgage pricing change passes House -- The Middle Class Borrower Protection Act of 2023 has cleared one chamber of Congress with Republican support.The bill aims to roll back the latest update of grids Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac use to give lower-income borrowers breaks with some cross-subsidizing increases for those more well off, while still ensuring risk-based pricing is maintained. Supporters like Rep. Patrick McHenry, R.-N.C., chairman of the House Financial Services Committee, said they felt the regulator of the government-sponsored enterprises went too far in raising prices for higher-income borrowers and giving those with less wealth breaks."If you want to protect middle class borrowers in your district from a new tax, you will support this bill," McHenry said Friday.He and other supporters have shown particular concern that in some cases, the latest price breaks have gone to lower-income borrowers further down the credit spectrum than those receiving hikes.Opponents of the bill have noted that while there have been relative increases for higher-income borrowers and some decreases for those with less wealth, those in the latter category generally are still paying more than in the former.Reversing the small breaks for people with lower income would be harder on them than the increases would be on their wealthier counterparts, according to a letter Americans for Financial Reform recently sent to McHenry and Maxine Waters, D.-Calif., ranking member of the Committee."The bill's title is ironic because it would, in fact, make mortgages more expensive for many middle-class American families," AFR said in the letter.The price changes have on a net basis increased fees overall in line with directives aimed at rebuilding capital at the GSEs.Federal Housing Finance Agency Director Sandra Thompson has said she feels the latest price changes have been misunderstood and that she's open to other ideas for how the current framework for capital goals and pricing could be aligned.Whether the legislation has enough momentum to get backing from both chambers of Congress in a situation where the House is narrowly controlled by Republicans and the Senate is dominated by a slim majority of Democrats remains to be seen.

MBA Survey: "Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Decreases to 0.49% in May" - From the MBA: Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Decreases to 0.49% in May The Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) monthly Loan Monitoring Survey revealed that the total number of loans now in forbearance decreased by 2 basis points from 0.51% of servicers’ portfolio volume in the prior month to 0.49% as of May 31, 2023. According to MBA’s estimate, 245,000 homeowners are in forbearance plans. Mortgage servicers have provided forbearance to approximately 7.9 million borrowers since March 2020.In May 2023, the share of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac loans in forbearance decreased 1 basis point to 0.23%. Ginnie Mae loans in forbearance decreased 5 basis points to 1.06%, and the forbearance share for portfolio loans and private-label securities (PLS) decreased 3 basis points to 0.58%.“The number of loans in forbearance is reaching levels not seen since the beginning of March 2020, prior to the passage of the CARES Act,” said Marina Walsh, CMB, MBA’s Vice President of Industry Analysis. “Today, more than 96 percent of homeowners are current on their mortgages, thanks to the favorable jobs market and the success of loss mitigation options over the past three years.” This graph shows the percent of portfolio in forbearance by investor type over time.The share of forbearance plans has been decreasing, declined to 0.49% in May from 0.51% in April.At the end of May, there were about 245,000 homeowners in forbearance plans.The second graph shows the percent of mortgages current by state.From the MBA:Total loans serviced that were current (not delinquent or in foreclosure) as a percent of servicing portfolio volume (#) increased to 96.12% in May 2023 from 95.89% in April 2023 (on a non-seasonally adjusted basis).
o The five states with the highest share of loans that were current as a percent of servicing portfolio: Washington, Idaho, Colorado, California, and Oregon. The five states with the lowest share of loans that were current as a percent of servicing portfolio: Louisiana, Mississippi, West Virginia, New York, and Indiana.

End of forbearance tests mettle of other foreclosure alternatives Forbearance has reached the point where less than half of a percent of borrowers have it, and that means servicers will be increasingly reliant on other types of foreclosure prevention, according to a recent report by the Mortgage Bankers Association.Cumulatively, almost 30% of borrowers who stopped suspending payments between June 1, 2020 and May 31. 2023, have chosen deferrals or partial claims, while almost 18% departed without loss mitigation but kept paying.Another 18% also exited without loss mit but are delinquent due to processing delays or ghosting, and more than 16% got modifications, sometimes in combination with another strategy like a deferral.These numbers and the persistence of historically low delinquency rates have resulted in the strongest loan performance to date but the stressors on it have been growing.The first sustained climb in Fed funds and mortgage rates seen in some time arrived last year has been challenging modifications in particular. Mods generally aim to recast loan terms such that they're more affordable for borrowers with persistent hardships, but at market rates. Government agencies like the Federal Housing Administration have worked to address this concern byallowing 40-year modifications that lower payments by extending terms and even authorizing borrowers to temporarily keep lower rates as they recover.One question mark in implementing these new measures has been how distressed borrowers respond to them and some mortgage executives participating in a webinar on Wednesday said some have balked at the idea of extending the time they remain in debt.

Deed theft victims get foreclosure protections in New York -The New York State Legislature has passed a bill that enhances civil culpability for those accused of deed theft, while adding protections against foreclosure and eviction when this crime is alleged.However, a second bill that creates criminal penalties remains under consideration.If signed by Gov. Kathy Hochul, the legislation that passed will halt foreclosure proceedings in cases where the property's title is in dispute, and remove good faith purchaser protections even where the buyer had no connection to the fraud. This bill also halts any eviction proceeding in cases where the title is in dispute.While the legislation was sponsored by State Senator Brian Kavanagh, D-Brooklyn/Manhattan and Assemblymember Helene Weinstein, D-Brooklyn, it was drafted with Attorney General Letitia James."Homeowners rarely have any idea that they are the victims of deed theft, and only find out when they are forced to endure humiliating and terrifying situations to try and keep their own houses," James said in a press release. "This legislation will help New Yorkers to fight back against deed theft, and will empower local officials to better address this heartless and heinous crime."The bill added language to existing law that clarifies that a county's district attorney, the state attorney general and "any law enforcement agency" can make a motion to void an "encumbrance" on the title, such as a lien that was created from the fraud."Deed theft is one of the leading causes of wealth-stripping in our Black and Brown communities," said Christie Peale, CEO and executive director, Center for NYC Neighborhoods. "It has denied many homeowners the ability to build generational wealth."In December, James' office indicted five people in a purported deed theft ring that netted over $1 million in proceeds. Yet, New York does not have a law that defines deed theft as a specific crime.

California promotes expanded availability of mortgage relief -California housing officials are urging households to take advantage of Homeowner Assistance Fund resources following recent changes to eligibility, including updated area median-income levels. The new income thresholds will qualify more mortgage borrowers for up to $80,000 in financial assistance. Funding was originally made available in late 2021 under provisions of the American Rescue Plan Act in order to help households encountering economic distress due to economic impacts of COVID-19. "Even now, too many homeowners are still struggling to recover from the financial toll of the pandemic. This adjustment could mean that more families will not only save their house, but their home," said Rebecca Franklin, president of the CalHFA Homeowner Relief Corporation, in a press release.The Golden State's Homeowner Assistance Fund already expanded in February this year to make relief available to more borrowers, including reverse mortgage holders. It also opened up to support households who may have already received some form of pandemic-related loss mitigation, such as a partial-claim second mortgage or loan deferral if granted in or after January 2020.Homeowners can qualify for federal relief if combined income comes in at or below 150% of their area's median levels, as determined by the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development. Qualifying thresholds rose across most California counties from 2022 to 2023, and range from $99,000 to $223,000 for a household with two residents age 18 or older. But eligible income decreased in a few of California's wealthier markets, including San Francisco and adjacent counties, where the amount shrank from to $223,000 from $223,700.

BankThink: It's time to take action to address the U.S. housing crisis | American Banker - It's long been a truism that homeownership is a pillar of the American dream. Yet many Americans today are increasingly losing confidence in their ability to afford a home. That's according to a recent Gallup poll on the economy and personal finance, which found that 78% of Americans believe that now is a bad time to buy a house due to concerns about the availability of affordable housing and high mortgage rates. As June is National Homeownership Month, it's a good time to take stock to determine what steps we can take to restore optimism and confidence in the housing market. We've long recognized that when individuals and families are able to purchase their own homes, they are stepping onto a reliable path toward achieving long-term financial capability. Moreover, high rates of homeownership give people a stronger stake in their neighborhoods, leading to more stable and secure communities. For these and other reasons, policymakers have long sought to encourage homeownership as a cornerstone of our financial inclusion strategy. But over the last several years, that model has been under severe strain, as a tight inventory of available housing, a growing population, elevated home prices, rising interest rates and higher costs for construction materials have resulted in many buyers being locked out of the market. Particularly affected by these trends are first-time homebuyers — especially younger buyers and members of marginalized minority communities who are seeking to buy a home as a means to start climbing the economic ladder. Likewise, middle-income buyers — those making up to $75,000 per year, the U.S. median household income — are also feeling the pinch due to a pronounced shortage of available homes in their price range, according to the National Association of Realtors. Such trends are undermining confidence in the housing market. But the good news is there are steps we can take to alleviate this situation and to restore homebuyers' hope. As one of my duties as a member of the board of the National Credit Union Administration (NCUA), I've recently assumed the chairmanship of the board of directors of NeighborWorks America, a nonprofit chartered by Congress with a mission to increase access to homeownership and affordable rental housing. NeighborWorks has a variety of tools at our disposal to address the housing shortage, including direct funding for development or redevelopment of neighborhoods; financial counseling for homebuyers and partnerships with other entities to address housing needs in local communities. Policymakers should focus on creative ways to encourage more investment in affordable housing. Such solutions could include regulatory reforms, adjustments to onerous zoning restrictions that restrict new construction and funding to boost the supply of homes.

Housing June 19th Weekly Update: Inventory Increased 1.8% Week-over-week - Altos reports that active single-family inventory was up 1.8% week-over-week.This inventory graph is courtesy of Altos Research. As of June 16th, inventory was at 451 thousand (7-day average), compared to 443 thousand the prior week. Year-to-date, inventory is down 81.%. And inventory is up 11.2% from the seasonal bottom nine weeks ago.The second graph shows the seasonal pattern for active single-family inventory since 2015.The red line is for 2023. The black line is for 2019. Note that inventory is up from the previous two years (the record low was in 2022), but still well below normal levels.Inventory was up 8.5% compared to the same week in 2022 (last week it was up 11.8%), and down 52.1% compared to the same week in 2019 (last week down 52.4%). It appears likely inventory will be down year-over-year in late June or early July.Mike Simonsen discusses this data regularly on Youtube.

NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.30 million SAAR in May; Median Prices Declined 3.1% YoY - From the NAR: Existing-Home Sales Edged Higher by 0.2% in May: Existing-home sales marginally increased in May, according to the National Association of REALTORS®. Sales were mixed among the four major U.S. regions, with the South and West posting improvements and the Northeast and Midwest experiencing pullbacks. All four regions experienced year-over-year sales declines.Total existing-home sales – completed transactions that include single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops – rose 0.2% from April to aseasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.30 million in May. Year-over-year, sales dropped 20.4% (down from 5.40 million in May 2022)....Total housing inventory registered at the end of May was 1.08 million units, up 3.8% from April but down 6.1% from one year ago (1.15 million). Unsold inventory sits at a 3.0-month supply at the current sales pace, up from 2.9 months in April and 2.6 months in May 2022. The sales rate was slightly above the consensus forecast.Sales in May (4.30 million SAAR) were up 0.2% from the previous month and were 20.4% below the May 2022 sales rate. Sales declined 20.4% year-over-year compared to April 2022. This was the twenty-first consecutive month with sales down year-over-year. Since sales were declining all year in 2022, the year-over-year declines are getting smaller - even though sales have been mostly flat this year in the low-to-mid 4 million range (SAAR).The third graph shows existing home sales for each month, Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA), for a few selected periods. Black and light Purple are the maximum sales per month during the bubble (2005) and the minimum sales during the bust (2008 - 2011). The most recent five years are shown (2019 through 2023).The fourth graph shows nationwide inventory for existing homes. On prices, the NAR reported:The median existing-home price for all housing types in May was $396,100, a decline of 3.1% from May 2022 ($408,600). Prices grew in the Northeast and Midwest but fell in the South and West.Median prices are distorted by the mix (repeat sales indexes like Case-Shiller and FHFA are probably better for measuring prices).

Home Prices Drop Year-over-Year by Most since 2011, as Investors Pull Back, amid Dismal Sales and Rising Supply by Wolf Richter - The housing data we’re seeing today – sales that closed in May – are still coming out of spring selling season when prices and sales always rise. This seasonal uptick happened even during Housing Bust 1. The median price of all types of previously owned homes – houses, condos, and co-ops – whose sales closed in May fell year-over-year by 3.1% to $396,100, the fourth month in a row of year-over-year declines, and the largest since December 2011 during Housing Bust 1, according to the National Association of Realtors today. For single-family houses, the median price fell 3.4% year-over-year, the fourth decline in a row, to $401,100. For condos, the median price ticked down year-over-year by a hair for the first time since lockdown May 2020, to $353,000 (historic data via YCharts). From the seasonal peak last June, the median price of all previously owned homes declined by 4.3%. The NAR’s median price nearly always shows a seasonal peak in June, followed by a seasonal drop-off for the rest of the year and into January/February of the next year. You can see this pattern in the chart below. This pattern occurred even during Housing Bust 1. As 2023 follows seasonality, there will be a final month-to-month uptick in the median price data for June, followed by month-to-month declines for the rest of the year and into early 2024, before the next spring selling season kicks in. The green line connects May 2023 and May 2022 (historic data via YCharts): Sales of all previously owned homes, seasonally adjusted, inched up by a hair (+0.2%) in May from April, to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of sales of 4.30 million homes. The seasonally adjusted annual rate of sales in May compared to the Mays in prior years: May 2022: -20.4%. May 2021: -27.4%. May 2019: -19.3%. May 2018: -20.4%. Homebuilders, on the other hand – the pros who have to build and sell homes no matter what the pricing environment is – have figured out that priced right, nearly any home will sell. So they have cut prices, and they’re buying down mortgage rates, and they’re building at lower price points, and their orders have increased from the lows and the cancellations last year, as buyers have shifted to buying new houses, instead of overpriced existing houses whose sellers and potential sellers are still being delusional, hoping that this too – the 6.5% to 7% mortgage rates – shall pass. Actual sales in May – not seasonally adjusted annual rate – fell 18.2% year-over-year to 408,000 homes. You see the seasonal patterns, including the spring selling season, in the not-seasonally adjusted actual sales (data via NAR):

They Bought a House With Plans to Airbnb. Then They Were Banned for Knowing the Wrong People - Kristin Turner’s first few months as an Airbnb host had gone off without a hitch. She and her husband had purchased a home in Austin, Texas, in 2022 as a place to stay when they commuted into the city to work at a downtown trauma center, where they are both nurses. To make the constant travel more bearable, they started to look into buying a home in Austin proper, but found the housing prices too high for them to afford on their own. “So we said, ‘Well, let's look into buying a house in Austin as a place that we can stay part time and rent out other times,’” she said. In July, they closed on a three-bedroom home, planning to put it on short-term rental sites like Airbnb. One month later, Airbnb CEO Brian Chesky said recruiting more hosts was the company’s top priority as it tried to meet demand for rental properties and reduce nightly costs. The company regularly advertises the benefits of putting one’s home on the platform. Then, one night last October, Turner received an email that changed everything. It was from a member of the Airbnb team who identified herself only as “Eleanor,” saying that the company had decided to remove her from the platform not because of her own behavior, but because her account had been “closely associated with a person who isn’t allowed to use Airbnb.” Turner was shocked and devastated. Soon enough, all her home’s bookings had been deleted and she could not get into her account. The potential consequences were clear. She had purchased a home on the idea that she would rent it out to help cover the mortgage, and now the company that dominated the short-term rental market had suddenly and permanently banned her from doing so. Immediately, she began to fear that her family would face financial ruin. She didn’t sleep for the rest of the night. For a decade now, Airbnb has had background checks performed on its users in hopes of making the platform as safe as possible for both hosts and guests. The checks, which are carried out by a third-party service that claims to complete them on average in less than a second, have been criticized for their arbitrary nature as people fight bans for infractions as small as not keeping a dog leashed, or, in Turner’s case, knowing the wrong people. Hoping to overturn the ban, Turner wrote back to ask for additional information, but Eleanor replied only to say the company had given her “case and its details careful consideration” and was unwilling to reverse the decision or even offer “additional support.” Airbnb had not provided her with the association that had led to the ban, so she was left to try and piece together what had happened herself.

Housing Starts Increased Sharply to 1.631 million Annual Rate in May - From the Census Bureau: Permits, Starts and Completions Privately‐owned housing starts in May were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,631,000. This is 21.7 percent above the revised April estimate of 1,340,000 and is 5.7 percent above the May 2022 rateof 1,543,000. Single‐family housing starts in May were at a rate of 997,000; this is 18.5 percent above the revised April figure of 841,000. The May rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 624,000.Privately‐owned housing units authorized by building permits in May were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,491,000. This is 5.2 percent above the revised April rate of 1,417,000, but is 12.7 percent below the May 2022 rate of 1,708,000. Single‐family authorizations in May were at a rate of 897,000; this is 4.8 percent above the revised April figure of 856,000. Authorizations of units in buildings with five units or more were at a rate of 542,000 in May. The first graph shows single and multi-family housing starts for the last several years.Multi-family starts (blue, 2+ units) increased in May compared to April. Multi-family starts were up 33.2% year-over-year in May. Single-family starts (red) increased sharply in May and were down 6.6% year-over-year. The second graph shows single and multi-family housing starts since 1968. This shows the huge collapse following the housing bubble, and then the eventual recovery - and the recent collapse in single-family starts.Total housing starts in May were well above expectations, however, starts in March and April were revised down, combined.

May Housing Starts: Record Number of Multi-Family Housing Units Under Construction - From the Census Bureau: Permits, Starts and Completions Privately‐owned housing starts in May were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,631,000. This is 21.7 percent above the revised April estimate of 1,340,000 and is 5.7 percent above the May 2022 rate of 1,543,000. Single‐family housing starts in May were at a rate of 997,000; this is 18.5 percent above the revised April figure of 841,000. The May rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 624,000.The first graph shows single and multi-family housing starts since 2000 (including housing bubble).The second graph shows single and multi-family starts since 1968.The third graph shows the month-to-month comparison for total starts between 2022 (blue) and 2023 (red).The fourth graph shows housing starts under construction, Seasonally Adjusted (SA). Red is single family units. Currently there are 695 thousand single family units (red) under construction (SA). This was down in May compared to April, and 136 thousand below the recent peak in May 2022. Single family units under construction peaked a year ago since single family starts declined sharply.Blue is for 2+ units. Currently there are 994 thousand multi-family units under construction. This ties the record set in July 1973 of multi-family units being built for the baby-boom generation. For multi-family, construction delays are a significant factor. The completion of these units should help with rent pressure.Combined, there are 1.689 million units under construction, just 21 thousand below the all-time record of 1.710 million set in October 2022.Below is a graph comparing multi-family starts and completions. Since it usually takes over a year on average to complete a multi-family project, there is a lag between multi-family starts and completions. Completions are important because that is new supply added to the market and starts are important because that is future new supply (units under construction is also important for employment).The blue line is for multifamily starts and the red line is for multifamily completions. Builders are still starting more multifamily units than they are completing. Multifamily starts (blue) picked up again, and completions (red) are increasing - and the gap is still huge.The last graph shows single family starts and completions. It usually only takes about 6 months between starting a single-family home and completion - so the lines are much closer than for multi-family. The blue line is for single family starts and the red line is for single family completions.

AIA: Architecture Billings "Rebound" in May; Multi-family Billings Decline for 11th Consecutive Month: Note: This index is a leading indicator primarily for new Commercial Real Estate (CRE) investment.From the AIA: AAIA/Deltek Architecture Billings Index Indicates Rebound in May Business Conditions: Architecture firms experienced a rebound in billings in May after a downturn in April, according to the latest Architecture Billings Index (ABI) from the American Institute of Architects (AIA) and Deltek. The index score for May was the highest it has been since September 2022. Inquiries into new projects and design contracts also increased this month, reaching their highest levels since February.The billings score for April increased from 48.5 in April to 51.0 in May (any score above 50 indicates an increase in firm billings). Firms also reported that inquiries into new projects accelerated to 57.2 from 53.9 the previous month. Further, the value of new design contracts also moved up to 52.3 in May from 49.8 in April.“The modest improvement in overall demand for architectural services that we saw last month is encouraging news", said AIA Chief Economist Kermit Baker Hon. AIA, Ph.D., “However, there continues to be variation in the performance of firms by regional location and building specialization. This suggests that overall business conditions for the profession likely will continue to be variable."Despite growth in the overall ABI this month, business conditions remain variable in different regions of the country. Billings improved at firms located in the South for the second consecutive month in May, while they were essentially flat at firms located in the Midwest, following six months of growth. However, billings continued to decline at firms located in both the West and Northeast, where scores have been below 50 since last fall.By firm specialization, business conditions softened further at firms with a multifamily residential specialization in May, falling to the lowest level in two years. Billings also declined for the ninth consecutive month at firms with a commercial/industrial specialization. On the other hand, business conditions improved for the second month in a row at firms with an institutional specialization, as they reported their strongest growth since last year....
• Regional averages: South (52.3); Midwest (49.6); Northeast (48.7); West (47.7)
• Sector index breakdown: institutional (53.4); mixed practice (firms that do not have at least half of their billings in any one other category) (52.7); commercial/industrial (47.5); multi-family residential (43.0)
This graph shows the Architecture Billings Index since 1996. The index was at 51.0 in May, up from 48.5 in April. Anything above 50 indicates an increase in demand for architects' services.Note: This includes commercial and industrial facilities like hotels and office buildings, multi-family residential, as well as schools, hospitals and other institutions.This index has declined in 6 of the last 8 months. This index usually leads CRE investment by 9 to 12 months, so this index suggests a slowdown in CRE investment later in 2023 and into 2024. Note that multi-family billing turned down in July 2022 and has been negative for ELEVEN consecutive months. This suggests we will see a downturn in multi-family starts this year.

NAHB: Builder Confidence Increased in June -- The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) reported the housing market index (HMI) was at 55, up from 50 last month. Any number above 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as good than poor. From the NAHB: Builder Confidence Moves into Positive Territory in June: Solid demand, a lack of existing inventory and improving supply chain efficiency helped shift builder confidence into positive territory for the first time in 11 months.Builder confidence in the market for newly built single-family homes in June rose five points to 55, according to the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI). This marks the sixth straight month that builder confidence has increased and is the first time that sentiment levels have surpassed the midpoint of 50 since July 2022.A bottom is forming for single-family home building as builder sentiment continues to gradually rise from the beginning of the year. This month marks the first time in a year that both the current and future sales components of the HMI have exceeded 60, as some buyers adjust to a new normal in terms of interest rates. The Federal Reserve nearing the end of its tightening cycle is also good news for future market conditions in terms of mortgage rates and the cost of financing for builder and developer loans. Nonetheless, access for these loans has become more difficult to obtain over the last year, which will ultimately result in lower lot supplies as the industry tries to expand off cycle lows....In another sign of gradual optimism for the state of demand for single-family homes, the June HMI survey shows that overall, builders are gradually pulling back on sales incentives:
• 25% of builders reduced home prices to bolster sales in June. The share was 27% in May and 30% in April. It has declined steadily since peaking at 36% in November 2022.
• The average price reduction was 7% in June, below the 8% rate in December 2022.
• 56% of builders offered incentives to buyers in June, slightly more than in May (54%), but fewer than in December 2022 (62%)....
All three major HMI indices posted gains in June. The HMI index gauging current sales conditions rose five points to 61, the component charting sales expectations in the next six months increased six points to 62 and the gauge measuring traffic of prospective buyers increased four points to 37.
Looking at the three-month moving averages for regional HMI scores, the Northeast edged up two points to 47, the Midwest increased four points to 43, the South moved three points higher to 55 and the West posted a five-point gain to 46.

LA Port Inbound Traffic Down Sharply YoY in May -Container traffic gives us an idea about the volume of goods being exported and imported - and usually some hints about the trade report since LA area ports handle about 40% of the nation's container port traffic. The following graphs are for inbound and outbound traffic at the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach in TEUs (TEUs: 20-foot equivalent units or 20-foot-long cargo container). To remove the strong seasonal component for inbound traffic, the first graph shows the rolling 12-month average.. On a rolling 12-month basis, inbound traffic decreased 2.0% in May compared to the rolling 12 months ending in April. Outbound traffic decreased 0.6% compared to the rolling 12 months ending the previous month. The 2nd graph is the monthly data (with a strong seasonal pattern for imports).Usually imports peak in the July to October period as retailers import goods for the Christmas holiday, and then decline sharply and bottom in February or March depending on the timing of the Chinese New Year. Imports were down 18% YoY in May, and exports were down 6% YoY. The volume of containers unloaded last year was much stronger because of all the ships waiting to unload.It is possible that exports have bottomed after declining for several years (even prior to the pandemic).

Gannett sues Google over alleged antitrust practices in advertising - The largest newspaper publisher by total circulation in the country has sued Google over allegations that the company is violating antitrust law in controlling tools used to buy and sell ads. Gannett filed the lawsuit Tuesday against Google and its parent company, Alphabet, arguing that it controls how publishers sell their ad slots and is forcing them to sell increasingly more ad space to Google at lower prices, leading to less revenue for the publishers and the company’s rivals in advertising technology. Gannett CEO Mike Reed explained the reasoning for the lawsuit in an op-ed in USA Today, saying news publishers’ advertising revenue has significantly declined as Google owns 90 percent of the market for “publisher ad servers,” through which publishers sell advertising space online. “Google’s practices have real world implications that depress not only revenue, but also force the reduction and footprint of local news at a time when it’s needed most,” Reed said. He said Google also owns 60 percent of the market for “ad exchanges,” which run auctions for advertisers to receive space on publishers’ websites. He added that 60 percent of all of Gannett’s buyers come through Google, demonstrating that Google is controlling and manipulating “all sides of each online advertising transaction.” Reed said this system hurts local news outlets that are struggling because of Google’s practices, and that newsroom employment has dropped by more than half since 2008. He said the lawsuit dives into more than a dozen practices by Google that Gannett believes hurt competition, starting in 2009 and continuing to the present. Dan Taylor, the vice president of Google Ads, said in a statement that the claims in the lawsuit are “simply wrong.” He said publishers have many options to choose from in using advertising technology, and Gannett uses dozens of competing ad services. “And when publishers choose to use Google tools, they keep the vast majority of revenue. We’ll show the court how our advertising products benefit publishers and help them fund their content online,” Taylor said.

Report More West Virginia Parents Not Working due to Childcare Issues --Thirteen percent of young children in West Virginia lived in families in which someone quit their job or refused a job because of responsibilities with child care, and the number is likely higher among Black and Latino parents, according to the latest Annie E. Casey Foundation's Kids Count Data Book.Women are five to eight times more likely than men to experience negative employment consequences due to lack of child care. Bobbie Spry, community engagement specialist, West Virginia Kids Count, said advocates in the state continue to push for enrollment-based subsidies for child care centers. She explained basing reimbursements on enrollment instead of attendance would increase financial stability for providers and help shrink yearlong waitlists."West Virginia's average cost of center-based child care for a toddler was $7,955," Spry reported. "That's 9% of the median income of a married couple and 35% of a single mother's income."Last year, West Virginia Kids Count reported 21% of West Virginia's children are living in households with a high housing cost burden. Spry noted ongoing unaffordable child care costs will likely mean more housing uncertainty for families living paycheck to paycheck.More than 60% of child care workers nationwide recently reported having difficulty paying their own food and utility bills. Spry pointed out the child care issue is pushing more Mountain State families into poverty."Our overall ranking remains at 42 which is what it was last year," Spry emphasized. "I don't feel like we're doing enough to push that needle." According to the Annie E. Casey Foundation, the failings of the child care system cost the U.S. economy around $122 billion a year in lost worker earnings, productivity, and tax revenue.

Florida school district and state ed leaders sued over restricting kids book on penguins - — A group of students alongside the authors of a children’s book centered on a penguin family with two fathers sued a central Florida school district and top state education officials Tuesday claiming that limiting its availability is a violation of free expression. The lawsuit, one of several challenging Florida’s policies for launching local book objections, aims to require Lake County officials to make the book — “And Tango Makes Three” — available to all students. But it also goes further by asking a federal court to declare that two education laws celebrated by state Republicans, the 2022 parental rights bill labeled “Don’t Say Gay” by opponents and its expansion passed earlier this year, are unconstitutional and should be overturned for spawning the “abhorrent and discriminatory practice of restricting access to books based on partisan” motivations. “The book was restricted because of the content it contains—namely, the depiction of two same-sex penguins and their adoption of a penguin chick—and viewpoint it expresses—namely, that same-sex relationships and families with same-sex parents exist; that they can be happy, healthy, and loving; and that same-sex parents can adopt and raise healthy children,” attorneys representing the group wrote in the lawsuit. Filled in the U.S. District Court for the Middle District of Florida, the legal challenge is the latest against the DeSantis administration and local schools over access to books and the controversial parental rights laws passed in recent years. Books and lessons surrounding race and gender have been especially scrutinized in Florida, led by Gov. Ron DeSantis, a Republican presidential contender who has railed on “woke” content and is pushing to remove books with graphic content from schools, taking aim at specific titles such as “Gender Queer: A Memoir” by Maia Kobabe, which depicts sex acts. Lake County school officials restricted access to “Tango” in December for students below fourth grade, citing the state’s prohibition on teaching about sexual identity and gender orientation from kindergarten through third grade contained in the 2022 parental rights law. With those policies expanding to pre-K through eighth grade under a recently passed law, the lawsuit speculates that the picture book meant for children could soon face further restrictions. The authors of “Tango” as well as the elementary students named in the lawsuit, or at least their parents, disagree with the school district’s assessment that the work broaches topics of sexual identity and gender orientation. We have a new app. Download the upgraded version for iOS or Android. Instead, they argue that the book, along with 39 others currently restricted in Lake County, is being targeted for expressing a “message of inclusion and tolerance” or for acknowledging the “existence, of LGBTQ+ individuals—a viewpoint disfavored by” school leaders. The lawsuit also targets the state Board of Education, which crafts policies to enact state laws, and Education Commissioner Manny Diaz Jr.

Pupil who questioned classmate ‘identifying as a cat’ called ‘despicable’ by teacher - A school teacher told a pupil she was “despicable” after she refused to accept that her classmate identifies as a cat.The 13-year-old girl and her friend were reprimanded by their teacher at Rye College, in East Sussex, on Friday at the end of a Year 8 class on “life education” in which they were told they can “be who you want to be and how you identify is up to you”.The row, which has infuriated parents, was allegedly sparked by one of them asking a fellow pupil: “How can you identify as a cat when you’re a girl?”Their teacher told them they were being reported to a senior leader and were no longer welcome at the school, if they continued to express the view that only boys and girls exist. Rye College is part of the Aquinas Church of England Education Trust, which is a network of 11 schools. The Telegraph has heard a recording of the heated exchange taken by one of the pupils, in which the teacher starts by saying “how dare you – you’ve just really upset someone” by “questioning their identity”.The pupil responded: “If they want to identify as a cat or something then they are genuinely unwell – crazy.”The teacher then asks the girls “where did you get this idea from that there are only two genders”, adding: “It is not an opinion.”The teacher said that “gender is not linked to the parts that you were born with, gender is about how you identify, which is what I said right from the very beginning of the lesson.”She added that “there is actually three biological sexes because you can be born with male and female body parts or hormones” and “there are lots of genders – there is transgender, there is ‘agender’ who are people who don’t believe that they have a gender at all”.The girls said they “don’t agree with that” and that you “can’t have” an agender identity “if you have a vagina you’re a girl and if you have a penis you’re a boy – that’s it”.The teacher interjected in a raised voice: “What do you mean you can’t have it? It’s not a law ... Cisgender is not necessarily the way to be – you are talking about the fact that cisgender is the norm, that you identify with the sexual organ you were born with, that’s basically what you’re saying, which is really despicable.”

The Supreme Court could end affirmative action. Here’s what to know. - The Supreme Court seems destined to end its term with a big rollback of the tool colleges employ to boost racial diversity on their campuses. What’s unclear is how schools fashion race-neutral workarounds to fill that gap — or if the ruling pushes colleges to retreat on a goal that’s been a priority for decades. Affirmative action in higher education has endured by relying on moderate justices like Sandra Day O’Connor, but the court remade by former President Donald Trump and Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) sounded prepared to end it during oral arguments in October. If race-conscious admissions fall, some better-resourced schools are expected to use household incomes, ZIP codes, targeted recruiting programs and other indirect methods to prop up their commitment to diversity. But among the nine states that banned the practice at their colleges years ago, the schools don’t present many lessons on how to boost the number of Black and brown students without it. “There is no substitute for race-based affirmative action,” said Liz King, senior education program director at the Leadership Conference on Civil and Human Rights, which represents more than 230 national organizations. “Affirmative action is a critical part of ensuring racial justice and equity in higher education.” The high court’s decision hinges on two cases where Students for Fair Admissions is challenging race-conscious practices at Harvard and the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill — the nation’s oldest private and public universities. At its core, the group, which says it represents about 20,000 students, has alleged that Harvard intentionally discriminates against Asian American applicants. It has also spent decades trying to get the court to overturn a ruling in the landmark Grutter v. Bollinger case, which has shaped college admissions policies since 2003. But education groups and civil rights advocates argue that banning the use of race altogether will exacerbate inequality for years to come. A race-blind admissions standard, they say, fails to account for barriers Black and brown students often face.Here are four areas that will change or intensify if the Supreme Court ends affirmative action in college admissions:

House fails to override Biden’s veto of bill repealing student debt relief -The House on Wednesday failed to undo President Joe Biden’s veto of Republican-led legislation that would have repealed his plan to cancel up to $20,000 of student debt for tens of millions of Americans.The override attempt lost on a 221-206 vote, falling far short of the two-thirds majority needed to overcome a presidential veto.The result was expected since Congress passed the resolution overturning student debt relief earlier this month on a narrow margin, largely along party lines. A handful of moderate Democrats joined with Republicans to pass the measure, but it didn’t come close to creating a veto-proof majority.Biden vetoed the legislation two weeks ago, defending the debt cancellation program as vital assistance for middle- and working-class families. Republican critics argue the $400 billion plan is too costly for taxpayers and unfair to Americans who didn’t attend college or already repaid their student loans..With Wednesday’s vote, the GOP legislative effort to kill the plan under the Congressional Review Act is now over. But Biden’s program remains in limbo at the Supreme Court.The justices are preparing to rule, potentially as early as Thursday, on whether to allow the Biden administration to proceed with student debt cancellation. Republican state attorneys general and a conservative group are suing to stop the program, arguing that it’s an illegal abuse of executive power.The vetoed resolution also would have repealed the freeze on student loan repayment and interest. But Congress separately, as part of the bipartisan deal to raise the debt ceiling, passed a law that ends the payment pause in the coming months.Interest in federal student loans is slated to resume on Sept. 1, and the Education Department is preparing to begin collecting monthly payments from borrowers in October.

Organizers Warn Biden Against 'Doing Nothing' If Supreme Court Blocks Student Debt Relief -- As another week passed without a Supreme Court ruling on President Joe Biden's student debt cancellation plan, campaigners implored the White House to recognize that an unfavorable decision from the deeply corrupt, conservative-dominated judicial body does not have to spell an end to debt relief efforts.In an op-ed for Teen Vogue on Thursday, Debt Collective organizer Frederick Bell Jr. wrote that "the president still has the power to cancel student debt" even if the Supreme Court strikes down his pending plan, which invokes emergency authority under the 2003 emergency authority under the Higher Education Relief Opportunities for Students (HEROES) Act."Biden has options, and inaction cannot be one of them," Bell added, echoing a message that progressive lawmakers have sent to administration officials publicly and behind closed doors.Bell noted that the two cases currently before the Supreme Court "are not about the legality of student debt relief in general, but rather the specific legal authority Biden used.""Fortunately, there are other legal tools available," Bell wrote. "For example, since 2020, student lending experts and activists have consistently communicated to White House officials that using the 'Compromise and Settlement' power in the Higher Education Act of 1965 is a robust and viable option for broad-based student loan cancellation. That legislation states that the Department of Education can 'enforce, pay, compromise, waive, or release any right, title, claim, lien, or demand' related to federal student debt.'""Forty-three million debtors are waiting for the relief they were promised by this administration."Bell also pointed to the looming end of the student loan repayment moratorium. Under the debt ceiling agreement negotiated by the Biden White House and congressional Republicans, the freeze is supposed to end 60 days after June 30, 2023. In practice, the Biden Education Department has said student loan interest accumulation—which has also been paused since early in the coronavirus pandemic—will resume on September 1 and repayments will begin the following month. While the debt ceiling law states that the education secretary is barred from using "any authority to implement an extension," Biden administration officials insisted that they still have the ability to implement another pause in the future.If the Supreme Court blocks Biden's debt relief plan, "more than 40 million borrowers who were eligible for relief—and 16 million people who were told by the government their applications were approved—will be in the horrible position of having loans reinstated that the administration promised to erase," Bell warned Thursday."This will, predictably, disproportionately harm working-class, young, Black, and Latinx borrowers. Alternatively, Biden can decisively implement a Plan B, pursuing another legal avenue to deliver promised relief," he wrote. "Forty-three million debtors are waiting for the relief they were promised by this administration." "Biden doing nothing if his program is blocked would be as if star NBA player Nikola Jokic and the Denver Nuggets threw in the towel after the Miami Heat tied up the series in game two of the best-of-seven finals," Bell wrote. "You still have five games left. Let's play to win and finish the job."

UK study: Anxiety high for undergrads during pandemic – A new study in the British Journal of Educational Studies shows undergraduates at UK universities experienced prolonged and high levels of psychological distress and anxiety during the pandemic, likely due to social isolation.The study, from researchers at the University of Bolton, tracked the mental wellbeing of 554 undergraduates from May 2020 to May 2021. According to a press release from Taylor & Francis, the journal's publisher, the students were asked about wellbeing at four different points in the first year of the pandemic; in May 2020, when the country was in the 7th week of lockdown; June and July 2020, when lockdown measures were beginning to let up; in November and December of 2020 when stricter lockdown restrictions were introduced in the lead- up to Christmas; and in May 2021, when Britain was at step 3 (of 8 steps) of its plan to come out of lockdown restrictions.Overall, undergraduates showed more signs of distress and anxiety than even UK healthcare workers, with undergraduates reporting an immediate worsening of wellbeing as soon as the pandemic began.Rates of distress, loneliness and anxiety increased at different points between 1, 2, and 3, in the study, but not between points 3 and 4. Of note, rates of flourishing declined across the first year of the pandemic."Even in May 2020, at the first phase of data collection, psychological distress scores were already considerably above pre-pandemic levels," said lead author Rosie Allen, PhD, a research assistant at Bolton.

US task force recommends screening adults for anxiety disorders -Adults between the ages of 19 to 64 should be screened for anxiety, the US Preventive Services Task Force announced for the first time on Tuesday. In a recommendation published in the Journal of the American Medical Association, the task force said that anxiety screenings are a net benefit for adults and can catch disorders that often go un- or underdiagnosed. There was “insufficient evidence” to screen adults over 65, the group found. “Anxiety disorders are commonly occurring mental health conditions. They are often unrecognized in primary care settings and substantial delays in treatment initiation occur,” the recommendation states. The task force is made up of independent medical professionals who make recommendations on all forms of medical literature. The group has previously recommended unilateral screening for depression. About 25 percent of men and 40 percent of women have some form of anxiety disorder during their lifetime, the report states. Anxiety disorders, like general or social anxiety, may cause trouble sleeping, irritability or problems with concentration. Anxiety may also show through specific phobias, panic disorders or through mutism.

FDA recommends XBB.1.5 for fall COVID vaccines --Following an advisory group discussion last week on COVID-19 vaccine updates for the fall, the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) on Jun 16 asked manufacturers to develop monovalent (single-strain) vaccines that target the Omicron XBB.1.5 subvariant.The announcement followed a unanimous vote from the FDA Vaccines and Related Biological Products Advisory Committee (VRBPAC) to switch to a monovalent vaccine for the fall. After hearing data from federal experts and the vaccine companies, VRBPAC members expressed a preference for the XBB.1.5 subvariant.Novavax last week said its XBB.1.5 candidate prompts a functional immune response against XBB.1.5, XBB.1.16, and XBB.2.3 subvariants, suggesting that its adjuvanted protein-based vaccine may be useful against drifted subvariants. In the United States, XBB.1.5 is most common, but the proportion is declining as newer XBB subvariant levels rise.The FDA said in an addendum to its strain selection announcement that although the XBB sublineages continue to evolve, the spike protein sequences of XBB.1.5, XBB.1.16, and XBB.2.3 are similar, with few amino acid differences.In its presentation to VRBPAC last week, a representative from Pfizer said the company could begin distributing doses of an XBB.1.5 monovalent vaccine by the end of July, but it would take a month longer to start distributing an XBB.1.16 vaccine. Any other formulation would have an October distribution schedule.

CDC data show 31% COVID-19 vaccine protection against Omicron in nursing home residents Vaccine effectiveness (VE) among nursing home residents up to date on their COVID-19 vaccines is 31.2%, according tonew research in Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report.In today's study, up-to-date vaccination was defined as receipt of a bivalent (two-strain) COVID-19 mRNA vaccine dose or completion of a primary series within the preceding 2 months. COVID-19 infections with Omicron strains documented from November 20, 2022 and January 8, 2023, in the National Healthcare Safety Network (NHSN) were included in the analysis."The study period was chosen to coincide with both the inclusion of bivalent vaccine in the definition of up-to-date status and the increase in COVID-19 infections during the winter months," wrote the authors, from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and elsewhere.The study included 108,727 weekly reports from 14,464 nursing homes. Overall, 4,314,714 (48.1%) nursing home resident-weeks reflecting up-to-date vaccination status, and 52,853 (40.6%) of COVID-19 patients were up to date. After adjusting for weekly incident case counts (stratified by up-to-date vaccination status) with weekly resident counts (stratified by up-to-date vaccination status) each week during the study period, up-to-date VE against infection was 31.2% (95% confidence interval, 29.1% to 33.2%).

Experts rubbish claims COVID-19 vaccines are linked to a fall in births recorded in NSW - A story published in the Sydney Morning Herald detailing a fall in births recorded by NSW public hospitals has been seized upon as evidence that COVID-19 vaccines are to blame. As the article explains, the number of these hospital births peaked at roughly 19,100 in the June 2021 quarter before steadily falling to reach 15,700 in the March 2023 quarter, their lowest ebb since 2010. "Dramatic drop off in births in NSW and globally, since a certain not-so-safe, effective or necessary vaccine was forced upon the elderly, pregnant mums and even children," wrote one Twitter user. And United Australia Party national director Craig Kelly tweeted: "The birth data for NSW has finally been released and tragically as expected the number of babies born has plunged as the vaccine was rolled out." So, what's it got to do with vaccines? Edith Gray, a professor of demography at the Australian National University, told CheckMate that rather than COVID-19 jabs being the cause of falling births, "the opposite is likely". "[W]hen the vaccine started to become available [in 2021] and lockdowns stopped there was an increase in births," she said. Peter McDonald, a professor of demography at the University of Melbourne, told CheckMate that even if a specific event had led to a fall in births, there was "no direct evidence" to say it was the result of vaccines. Notably, both experts said the available data was incomplete and subject to change, meaning more information was needed before conclusions could be drawn about what, if anything, was happening in NSW. “There is great variability in births over short time periods, and these data only account for births in public hospitals," Professor Gray said.

Study: Eating disorder rates climbed during pandemic among teen girls - --The rate of eating disorder diagnoses among UK girls 13 to 16 years old during the first 2 years of the pandemic was 42% higher than expected, according to a study yesterday in The Lancet Child & Adolescent Health. The study also found that rates of self-harm increased 38%.The study was based on health record from 9,184,712 patients aged 10 to 24 years (52.7% female and 47.3% male) from January 1, 2010, to March 31, 2022. Using models, the study authors predicted the expected rates of eating disorders and self-harm, had the pandemic not occurred, from March 2020 to March 2022.The authors found that, among 13- to 16-year-old girls, the rate of eating disorder diagnoses was 42.0% higher than expected (95% confidence interval [CI], 25.7% to 61.3%), with 3,862 observed cases compared with 2,713 projected cases. In the same cohort, the rate of self-harm diagnoses was 38% higher than expected, with 9,174 observed cases and 6,631 projected cases.Rates were also 32.0% (95% CI, 13.3% to 53.8%) higher than expected for girls aged 17 to 19 years, whereas other age-groups showed little difference between observed and expected incidence, the authors said.Rates for boys for both eating disorders and self-harm were lower than expected, by as much as 22.8% (95% CI, 9.2% to 34.4%) for eating disorders and 11.5% (95% CI, 3.6% to 18.7%) for self-harm.The authors conclude that their findings indicate an urgent need for intervention.

Study estimates 6-times-higher odds of COVID in households amid Omicron -The odds of SARS-CoV-2 infection were 6.2 times greater among household contacts during the Omicron variant wave than during periods dominated by other strains, with rates even higher in children, estimates a study published yesterday in Emerging Infectious Diseases.A team led by researchers from the National Institute of Infectious Diseases in Tokyo analyzed COVID-19 case rates in a single city during four variant waves: July 1 to October 31, 2020 (before variants of concern), April 1 to 30, 2021 (Alpha), July 3 to August 15, 2021 (Delta), and January 3 to 23, 2022 (Omicron).Health center staff interviewed COVID-19 patients, regardless of symptom status. Close contacts were tested for COVID-19, even if they were asymptomatic.The team enrolled 1,057 COVID-19 patients and 3,820 contacts, including 123 patients and 530 contacts in the prevariant period, 246 patients and 998 contacts amid Alpha, 304 patients and 984 contacts during Delta, and 384 patients and 1,318 contacts during Omicron. Close contacts without polymerase chain reaction results were excluded.COVID-19 rates during Omicron were 35.0% for household contacts and 15.1% for non-household contacts. After adjustment for potential confounding factors, the odds of infection were 6.2 higher among household contacts and 3.6 times greater among other contacts amid Omicron than during the prevariant period.The risk of infection rose significantly among household contacts aged 0 to 19 years, from 3% before variants of concern to 38% amid Omicron. Infection rates for non-household contacts in this age-group, however, were lower. COVID-19 rates among household contacts 60 years and older declined 12% during Delta but rose 29% amid Omicron. Throughout all periods, the risk of infection from patients 60 and older was higher than among those in other age-groups.

Survey: 1 in 10 health workers had suicidal thoughts early in COVID-19 --As many as 1 in 10 UK healthcare workers (HCWs) had suicidal thoughts during the first year of the pandemic, according to astudy yesterday in PLOS One. The findings contribute to a growing body of knowledge concerning the mental health strains experienced by health professionals over the past 3 years.The data came from longitudinal online surveys completed by healthcare workers, students, and volunteers in 17 National Health Service (NHS) Trusts across England during the COVID-19 pandemic. A total of 12,514 participants completed an online survey at baseline and 7,160 participants at 6- month follow up, between April 2020 and August 2021.The study periods encompassed the two major peaks in the incidence of COVID-19 deaths (April 2020 and January 2021) and the three national lockdowns undertaken by the United Kingdom in the first 18 months of the pandemic. The primary outcomes were suicidal ideation, suicide attempts, and non-suicidal self-injury. At baseline, 10.8% (95% confidence interval [CI], 10.1% to 11.6%) of participants reported having experienced suicidal thoughts in the previous 2 months, and 2.1% (95% CI, 1.8%, to 2.5%) of participants reported having attempted suicide over the same period.In healthcare workers who had not experienced suicidal thoughts at baseline, 11.3% (95% CI 10.4% to 12.3%) reported have those thoughts 6 months later. A total of 3.9% (95% CI, 3.4% to 4.4%) of HCWs reported attempting suicide for the first time at 6 months following baseline. "Our analyses show that among healthcare workers who had not experienced suicidal thoughts when first completing the survey, one-in-ten reported experiencing them six months later. Additionally, almost one in 25 staff reported having attempted suicide for the first time," said first author Prianka Padmanathan, MB ChB, PhD, MSc, in a university press release on the study.

Clinicians describe lack of support, waning motivation in year 2 of COVID-19 -- Interviews with clinicians who provided direct patient care at US healthcare facilities in the second year of the COVID-19 pandemic describe a disconnect between official messaging about crisis conditions and their own experience, waning morale, and having to allocate scarce resources in the absence of system-level support. The interview results were published by a University of Washington–led research team late last week in JAMA Network Open. Twenty-three clinicians, including 21 doctors and 2 nurses, practicing in California, Idaho, Minnesota, or Texas completed interviews from December 28, 2020, to December 9, 2021. The average age was 49 years, 85.7% were White, and 57.1% were men.Three themes emerged from the interviews: isolation, in-the-moment decision-making, and eroding motivation. Clinicians said they had a limited view of events outside of their immediate practice area and observed a disconnect between official messaging about conditions and their own experience."In the absence of overarching system-level support, responsibility for making challenging decisions about how to adapt practices and allocate resources often fell to frontline clinicians," the study authors wrote.Interviewees said that formal crisis declarations didn't help guide allocation of resources in clinical practice, leaving them to rely on their clinical judgment and manage situations that were operationally and ethically complex. While a strong sense of mission, duty, and purpose had pushed clinicians to put forth extraordinary efforts early in the pandemic, interviewees said their motivation lessened over time due to unsatisfying clinical roles, a lack of alignment between their own values and those of their institutions, more distant relationships with patients, and moral injury.

Health care professionals talk continued impact of COVID on highlighted system shortcomings - The Hill brought together medical experts on Thursday morning to reflect on lessons learned from the pandemic and discuss the future of U.S. health care after major shifts in the health policy realm. At The Hill’s 2023 Future of Healthcare Summit, moderated by Editor in Chief Bob Cusack and National Political Reporter Julia Manchester, misinformation about COVID-19 and health literacy in general was the first of several common concerns among the speakers. Former Surgeon General Jerome Adams said that the pandemic only highlighted the issue. “COVID was just a magnifying glass on the problems that have existed for decades, for centuries,” Adams said. “It was a magnifying glass on misinformation.” Dawn O’Connell also emphasized false facts as a challenge in her role as the assistant secretary for Preparedness and Response within the U.S. Department of Health & Human Services (HHS). O’Connell explained that HHS avoids giving the public room to doubt their choices by clarifying what information the department does and doesn’t know “We’ve just tried to be very transparent,” O’Connell said. “But it is a problem, and it’s something that we’re all going to have to wrestle with.” Adams also pointed to the politicization of health as an obstacle to progress in public debates. The doctor said that his role in the Trump administration made it difficult to chime into conversation because the media often turns preventative health into a political conversation. “It’s impacting our ability to have rational conversations about important issues that, again, are about so much more than Donald Trump,” Adams said.

Even low levels of air pollution tied to longer COVID-19 hospital stay - Adult COVID-19 patients exposed to air pollution spent an average of 4 extra days in the hospital, further overwhelming health systems, concludes a Belgian study published yesterday in the European Respiratory Journal.For the study, experts collected blood and urine from 328 unvaccinated COVID-19 patients admitted to one of two hospitals in Belgium from May 2020 to March 2021, 29% of whom required intensive care. The team modeled daily exposures to particulate matter (PM), nitrogen dioxide (NO₂), and black carbon (BC) from 2016 to 2019 and measured BC particles in the blood using pulsed laser illumination. All levels of exposure were below the European Union pollution threshold. The average hospital length of stay was 16.9 days. An interquartile range (IQR) increase in exposure in the week before hospitalization was tied to a roughly 4-day longer stay (4.2 days for PM and 4.3 days for NO₂. Comparable findings were seen for long-term NO₂ and BC exposure. The effects of pollution on hospital length of stay were equivalent to the effect of a 10-year increase in age, and an IQR rise in blood BC concentrations increased the likelihood of requiring intensive care by 36%. Each 10-year increase in age correlated with an extra 2.4 days of hospitalization, and men were hospitalized for an average of 4.0 days longer than women. Conversely, reducing pollution exposure was an estimated 40% to 80% as effective in shortening hospitalization as some of the best available treatments."Our findings indicate that people who were exposed to air pollution, even at relatively low levels, were sicker and needed more time in hospital to recover," senior author Tim Nawrot, PhD, of Hasselt University, said in a European Respiratory Society press release.

Studies highlight increasing prevalence, testing challenges of Candida auris --Two studies presented last week at the annual conference of the American Society for Microbiology (ASM) highlight the rising prevalence of the multidrug-resistant fungal pathogenCandida auris in US hospitals and the need for better antifungal susceptibility testing.In the first study, researchers with French diagnostics company bioMerieux reported that a retrospective analysis of blood cultures collected in US hospitals from 2020 to March 2023 found a significant increase in C auris bloodstream infections over the past year.Using bioMerieux's proprietary blood culture identification panel and a cloud-based network that provides near real-time surveillance, the researchers found that the average detection rate for C auris in bloodstream infections rose from 0.014% before October 2022 (July 2020 to September 2022) to 0.057% after October 2022 (October 2022 to March 2023). Beginning in October 2022, C auris detection rates rose in the Midwest, South, and Northeast Census regions, with the highest detection rate observed in the Northeast and the largest increase seen in the South.The findings add to recent data released by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) showing that C auris infections in US hospitals rose by 59% in 2020 and 95% in 2021. The pathogen was identified in Japan in 2009 and first detected in the United States in 2016.The increase in C auris infections in US hospitals over the last few years has been partly attributed to the COVID-19 pandemic. In many hospitals around the country, staff responsible for maintaining the infection prevention and control strategies that can reduce the incidence of pathogens like C auris, which spreads easily in healthcare settings and is difficult to eradicate, were diverted to COVID care. In addition, severely ill COVID-19 patients were increasingly susceptible to C auris and other healthcare-associated infections.Another recent CDC study found that the overall in-hospital mortality rate for C auris infections was 34%, and 47% for bloodstream infections." One of the reasons why C auris infections are so deadly is that the yeast has shown resistance to all classes of antifungals used to treat invasive Candida infections. That makes antifungal susceptibility testing (AFST) critical for guiding effective treatment. But there are no C auris-specific AFSTs currently available at US hospitals, so clinicians have to send C auris isolates out for susceptibility testing.

Resistant fungus found in remote region of China A study of soil samples collected in a remote region of China has revealed the presence of a drug-resistant pathogenic fungus, researchers reported today in mSphere.For the study, a team of researchers from Yunnan University in China and McMaster University in Canada collected soil samples from the Three Parallel Rivers region inYunnan, China, a remote and sparsely populated area that's home to more than 4,000 fungal species. They were looking to investigate the population structure and resistance levels of Aspergillus fumigatus, a ubiquitous mold and common human fungal pathogen.Previous research by the team had found that 79% of A fumigatussamples from Yunnan greenhouses were resistant to commonly used antifungal drugs, while 15% of samples from agricultural fields, lake sediments, and forests in the region were resistant. Those findings were attributed to widespread use of agricultural fungicides.In the present study, the researchers found that 6.95% of 331 representative A fumigatus isolates collected from 19 sites along the three rivers in January 2020 were resistant to one or both of two triazole antifungals—itraconazole and voriconazole. While that's much lower than observed in the two previous studies, the authors note that the mountainous terrain in the region is unfavorable to agricultural activities, and the use of fungicides is uncommon.They suggest that fungicide residues from agricultural fields elsewhere in Yunnan may have been carried to non-agriculture soils, where they acted as a selective force for the emergence of resistance. Or that resistant spores from agricultural areas could have been carried to the region by wind or human activities.

Study shows poor success rate for extensively drug-resistant TB regimens -- A review and meta-analysis of studies on treatment outcomes for extensively drug-resistant tuberculosis (TB) found a success rate of only 44%, researchers reported yesterday in the Journal of Infection. Among 5,056 studies published from 2005 to April 2023 that reported on treatment outcomes for extensively drug-resistant TB, researchers from Aarhus University Hospital in Denmark identified 94 eligible studies from 26 countries, involving 10,223 patients. The pooled proportion of cases treated successfully was 44.2% (95% confidence interval [CI], 38.3% to 50.3%), well below the World Health Organization (WHO) target success rate of 75%. For studies in which all successful and unsuccessful outcomes were completely stratified, the pooled success rate was only 26.9% (95% CI, 19.1% to 36.4%). A variety of sensitivity analyses produced similar estimates."These rates are very low, and this situation is comparable to the prognosis for patients affected by tuberculosis prior to the antibiotic era," the study authors wrote.They note, however, that a slight improvement in treatment outcomes was observed after 2013, and that the 25 studies on outcomes for patients with pre-extensively drug-resistant TB found a pooled treatment success rate of 63.3%.More important, the review did not include any studies conducted since the introduction of the all-oral, shorter, and less toxic BPaL (bedaquiline, pretomanid, and linezolid) regimen with or without moxifloxacin, which has demonstrated treatment success rates of up to 90% in phase 3 trials. The WHO recommendedthis regimen for most patients with drug-resistant TB in May 2022.

Quick takes: Peruvian dengue surge, polio in Africa, mpox cases in Colorado

• Peru is battling a record dengue outbreak in the wake of cyclone rains in the country's north in April and May, which fueled an increase in mosquito populations. So far, Peru has reported more than 146,000 cases and 248 deaths, and the struggle to control the outbreak has led to the resignation of the country's health minister, the BBC reported today. The country's president declared a state of emergency last week, and health officials fear a worsening situation with the El Nino weather pattern expected to produce more heavy rain later this year.
• Four African countries reported more polio cases this week, all involving vaccine-derived types, the Global Polio Eradication Initiative (GPEI) said yesterday in its latest weekly update. Ivory Coast reported a circulating vaccine-derived poliovirus type 2 (cVDPV2) case from Bounkani, its second of the year. The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) reported 6 more cVDPV2 cases, as well as 10 more infections from circulating vaccine-derived poliovirus type 1 (cVDPV1). Mali reported its first two cVDPV2 cases of the year, and Nigeria reported 4 more cases involving the strain, all from Zamfara, bringing its 2023 total to 10.
• Colorado health officials have reported three new mpox cases, all from the Denver area, which prompted new public health reminders about the availability of vaccines, testing, and treatment. The Colorado Department of Public Health and Environment said of the three cases confirmed by Denver's public health department, two involved people who were fully vaccinated with two doses of the Jynneos vaccine.

Spread of enterovirus D68 linked to polio-like illness may have risen 50% over 10 years -- Transmission of enterovirus D68 (EV-D68), a respiratory RNA virus first identified in California in 1962, appears to have started accelerating before 2011, which could partly explain a more recent upswing in cases and outbreaks of related diseases around the world, suggests a study published ineLife. Imperial College London researchers led the study, which estimated the prevalence of EV-D68 neutralizing antibodies using mathematical models and serum samples collected in 2006, 2011, and 2017 in England. EV-D68 most often causes asymptomatic or mild respiratory diseases but has been implicated since 2014 in outbreaks ofacute flaccid myelitis (AFM), an uncommon but serious polio-like illness causing arm or leg weakness, mainly in children.There is no treatment or vaccine for EV-D68, which typically circulates in the late summer and fall. It is difficult to determine the true incidence of infection or identify any changes in viral circulation because most countries conduct only passive disease surveillance, the researchers said.While the virus was once limited to isolated cases or small case clusters, it has now been linked to wider outbreaks, starting with nearly 1,400 cases in 49 states and Washington, DC, reported to the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) in 2014. The study authors said the virus may have evolved to replicate more readily or developed mutations linked to immune escape.

Report highlights need to strengthen gonorrhea surveillance in Africa--Analysis of Neisseria gonorrhoeae isolates from three African countries found high resistance to ciprofloxacin and emerging resistance determinants for azithromycin, African researchers reported today in the Journal of Antimicrobial Chemotherapy.For the study, the researchers conducted antibiotic susceptibility testing and whole-genome sequencing (WGS) on 433, 154, and 99 gonococcal isolates collected from men in Uganda, Malawi, and South Africa, respectively, from 2015 to 2020. Although the World Health Organization African Region has some of the highest prevalence of gonorrhea, there data are scarce on antimicrobial resistance (AMR) and on the evolution, molecular epidemiology, and presence of genetic AMR determinants in gonococcal isolates from the region.Antibiotic susceptibility testing revealed that resistance to ciprofloxacin was high in all countries (57.1% of isolates in Malawi, 77.8% in South Africa, and 100% in Uganda were resistant), while all isolates were susceptible to ceftriaxone, cefixime, and spectinomycin, and 99.9% were susceptible to azithromycin.WGS found that AMR determinants were common for ciprofloxacin, benzylpenicillin, and tetracycline but rare for ceftriaxone and azithromycin. A phylogenomic tree of the isolates from the three countries, along with 159 isolates from Kenya and 52 from Burkina Faso, showed that most belonged to the more antibiotic-susceptible lineage B (780 isolates) compared with the AMR lineage (141). The study authors note that while ciprofloxacin is no longer recommended for gonorrhea treatment in the three countries, the high prevalence of ciprofloxacin resistance is likely related to its continued empirical use for urethritis, along with the continued use of fluoroquinolones for other infections. And although susceptibility to ceftriaxone and azithromycin was high, the existence of AMR determinants to these antibiotics, which are recommended for gonorrhea treatment, is a concern."The high prevalence of resistance to ciprofloxacin (and empirical use continues), tetracycline and benzylpenicillin, and the emerging resistance determinants for azithromycin show that it is imperative to strengthen gonococcal AMR surveillance, ideally including genomics, in African countries," they wrote.

Brazil reports fatal H1N1v flu case - Brazilian health officials have reported a fatal swine-origin variant H1N1 (H1N1v) case to the World Health Organization (WHO), which the group says is part of a sporadic pattern with the virus in the country, with no evidence of human-to-human spread. The patient is a 42-year-old woman from Parana state who had underlying health conditions. Her symptoms began on May 1, and she was hospitalized 2 days later. She died from her infection on May 5. Testing at the state lab revealed that the virus was an H1 virus and of swine origin. Follow-up tests at the Oswaldo Cruz Institute revealed H1N1v, and sequencing showed that the sample was similar to other recent H1N1v samples from Parana state and was 96% similar to the hemagglutinin from swine viruses collected from Brazilian pigs in 2015. Investigators found that the woman lived near a swine farm, though she had no direct contact with the animals. Two of her close contacts, however, worked at the swine farm. Neither had symptoms or tested positive for flu, and the WHO said no human-to-human transmission has been identified. The WHO said the H1N1v case is Brazil's first of 2023. Officials reported two earlier cases, one in 2021 and one in 2022. All were in Parana state.

Revealed: The secret push to bury a weedkiller’s link to Parkinson’s disease - The global chemical giant Syngenta has sought to secretly influence scientific research regarding links between its top-selling weedkiller and Parkinson’s, internal corporate documents show.While numerous independent researchers have determined that the weedkiller, paraquat, can cause neurological changes that are hallmarks of Parkinson’s, Syngenta has always maintained that the evidence linking paraquat to Parkinson’s disease is “fragmentary” and “inconclusive”.But the scientific record they point to as proof of paraquat’s safety is the same one that Syngenta officials, scientists and lawyers in the US and the UK have worked over decades to create and at times, covertly manipulate, according to the trove of internal Syngenta files reviewed by the Guardian and the New Lede.The files reveal an array of tactics, including enlisting a prominent UK scientist and other outside researchers who authored scientific literature that did not disclose any involvement with Syngenta; misleading regulators about the existence of unfavorable research conducted by its own scientists; and engaging lawyers to review and suggest edits for scientific reports in ways that downplayed worrisome findings.A detail from a Syngenta internal document about its Swat team.The files also show that Syngenta created what officials called a “Swat team” to be ready to respond to new independent scientific reports that could interfere with Syngenta’s“freedom to sell” paraquat. The group, also referred to as “Paraquat Communications Management Team”, was to convene “immediately on notification” of the publication of a new study, “triage the situation” and plan a response, including commissioning a “scientific critique”.A key goal was to “create an international scientific consensus against the hypothesis that paraquat is a risk factor for Parkinson’s disease,” the documents state. In another example of a company tactic, an outside lawyer hired by Syngenta to work with its scientists was asked to review and suggest edits on internal meeting minutes regarding paraquat safety. The lawyer pushed scientists to alter “problematic language” and scientific conclusions deemed “unhelpful” to the corporate defense of paraquat. Syngenta’s decision to involve lawyers in the editing of its scientific reports and other communications in ways that downplayed concerning findings potentially related to public health is unacceptable, said Wendy Wagner, a law professor at the University of Texas who has served on several National Academies of Science committees. “Clearly the lawyers are involved in order to limit liability,” she said.

Florida reports 2 locally acquired malaria cases --The Florida Department of Health (DOH) this week issued a mosquito warning after officials confirmed two cases of locally acquired malaria in the state, the first in 20 years.People in Sarasota and Manatee counties contracted the mosquito-borne infection in late May. One of the patients has been treated and released, and the other is still being treated, the DOH said in a news release.Officials confirmed that the cases are caused by thePlasmodium vivax malaria parasite, which is not as fatal as other malaria species. "Only infected Anopheles mosquitoes can transmit malaria to humans," the DOH said. It added, "Individuals in this area with symptoms of fever, chills, sweats, nausea/vomiting, and headache should seek immediate medical attention."The DOH said residents in the affected counties should take precautions, such as wearing long-sleeved shirts and pants, applying mosquito repellent, and avoiding areas with high mosquito populations, especially during sunrise and sunset, when mosquitos are most active. The agency also advised people to drain standing water to limit mosquito breeding grounds. A previous DOH release noted that response efforts include aerial and ground spraying to control mosquitoes in the affected counties.These are the first locally acquired malaria cases confirmed in Florida since 2003, the Mirror reported today.

CWD detected for first time in Florida, which becomes the 31st affected state --The first case of chronic wasting disease (CWD) in Florida has been detected in a road-killed deer in Holmes County, boosting the number of affected states to 31 and prompting nearby states to take action.Caused by infectious prions (misfolded proteins), CWD is a fatal neurodegenerative disease affecting cervids such as deer and elk. While CWD isn't known to infect humans, some experts fear it could jump species. On June 15, the Florida Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission (FWC) and the Florida Department of Agriculture and Consumer Services (FDACS) announced anemergency order and actions to protect against CWD spread in north Florida."As part of the plan, the FWC will collect samples from specific established zones to further assess the spread of the disease," FWC said in a news release. "The FWC has increased CWD monitoring and surveillance in the area and FDACS is prioritizing CWD testing from all samples collected from Holmes County."The CWD management zone covers parts of Holmes, Jackson, and Washington counties. The FWC prohibits the export of whole-deer carcasses and high-risk parts, baiting or feeding deer, and the rehabilitation of injured or orphaned white-tailed deer. Holmes County is on the border with Alabama and lies close to Georgia, as well.The FDACS is scrutinizing transportation permits for intrastate cervids to or from cervid farms within the zone, which are under quarantine."Controlling the spread of CWD is difficult once it becomes established in a natural population," the FWC wrote. "Because prions shed by infected deer persist in the environment, the best chance for controlling CWD is acting quickly."Several nearby states reacted with their own announcements:

• The Alabama Department of Conversation and Natural Resources said in a statement that it will increase CWD sampling in the southeastern part of the state.
• The Georgia Department of Natural Resources issued a release saying that it will activate its CWD response protocol if it is detected in the state.
• The Tennessee Wildlife Resources Agency said it has halted the rehabilitation of white-tailed deer fawns, News Channel 5 Nashville reports.

Climate change could lead to 'widespread chaos' for insect communities -New species continue to evolve the world over, as different groups of organisms separate and take divergent paths. What happens when you add climate change to the mix? That's the question Thomas H.Q. Powell, assistant professor of biological sciences at Binghamton University, State University of New York, and his lab seek to answer in "Contrasting effects of warming in diverging insects," recently published in Ecology Letters. In the 1850s, the apple maggot fly—a major agricultural pest—began to diverge into two populations in the Hudson Valley. One continued to live on the fruit of the region's native hawthorn trees. The other shifted to a new food source: apple trees, originally introduced to North America by English colonists. "The entomologist who discovered this actually corresponded with Darwin about it potentially being an example of the origin of species in real time. It wasn't until the system was picked back up by researchers in the late 20th century that we found out he was right," Powell said. Hawthorns fruit three or four weeks later than apples, resulting in a shift in the two populations' reproductive schedules. That, in turn, has an impact on several species of parasitic wasp that feed on the maggot fly, demonstrating the delicate balance that undergirds ecosystems. For their experiment, the researchers reared populations of apple- and hawthorn-based flies and parasitic wasps under conditions matching the seasonal average from the last 10 years of climate data, and then warmer conditions projected 50 to 100 years into the future. The results have important ramifications for insect biodiversity, Powell points out. Although in the same location, the two fly populations responded to that temperature shift in starkly different ways. The hawthorn-dwellers appeared to have more resilience, possibly owing to more genetic diversity. The lifecycle of the apple flies was thrown out-of-phase with their host plant, making their survival tenuous—potentially halting the speciation process. However, the life cycles of parasitic wasps weren't affected by the heat—which could spell dire consequences if they fall out of step with their prey's lifecycle. Natural adaptation might be able to restore some balance in disrupted systems long-term, but there are major constraints on rapid evolution. Habitats tend to be smaller and fragmented, for example, limiting the amount of genetic variability that organisms need to respond to evolving pressures. "It's not just that climate change is disrupting evolution through the potential breakdown of this classic speciation story, but that the rapid evolution of the flies has a strong bearing on how susceptible they are to climate change," Powell said. "So, if we're finding that the effects of these future conditions may be completely different, even for identical flies from the same habitat that have been evolving since just the 1800s, we may see widespread chaos in the ecological timing of insect communities in the coming decades."

‘Very Troubling’: US Honeybees Just Suffered Second Deadliest Year on Record - The year that spanned April 1, 2022 to April 1, 2023 was the second deadliest on record for U.S. honeybees.Beekeepers lost 48.2% of their managed hives, according to the initial results of the Bee Informed Partnership's annual Colony Loss and Management Survey, released Thursday."This is a very troubling loss number when we barely manage sufficient colonies to meet pollination demands in the U.S.," Jeff Pettis, a former government bee scientist and current president of the global beekeeper association Apimondia who was not involved in the study, toldThe Associated Press. "It also highlights the hard work that beekeepers must do to rebuild their colony numbers each year.""Beekeepers are under substantial pressure to recover from losses by creating new colonies every year."Honeybees—and pollinators in general—are essential to biodiversity and agriculture, helping around three-quarters of the world's flowering plants and around 35% of its crops to reproduce. Honeybees alone pollinate more than 100 crops including nuts, vegetables, berries, citrus, and melons, according to the AP.But in 2006, U.S. beekeepers began to report an alarming trend, The Hillexplained. Worker bees would simply abandon their hives, leaving the queen and larvae to die on their own. The emergence of "colony collapse disorder," as the phenomenon came to be known, prompted the University of Auburn in Alabama and the University of Maryland to team up to survey American beekeepers on rates of colony collapse through the nonprofit Bee Informed Partnership.The worst year for colony survival was 2020 to 2021, when 50.8% of hives were lost. That loss doesn't mean that a beekeeper goes out of business; rather, they find a way to rebuild their hives, but doing it again and again takes a toll."Although the total number of honey bee colonies in the country has remained relatively stable over the last 20 years (~2.6 million colonies according to the USDA NASS Honey Reports), loss rates remain high, indicating that beekeepers are under substantial pressure to recover from losses by creating new colonies every year," the report authors wrote.Nathalie Steinhauer, lead survey author and University of Maryland bee researcher, told the AP that "the situation is not really getting worse, but it's also not really getting better."During 2022 to 2023, it was the winter that hit particularly hard, with 37.4% of hives lost, the survey found. This was 13.2 percentage points higher than last year's loss and 9.9 percentage points higher than the average. More than 60% of beekeepers also reported unacceptable losses during winter 2022-2023—or losses above 21.3% of their hives.While honeybees face many threats, the leading cause of collapse reported by the beekeepers was the Varroa destructor mite, a parasite that makes bees more susceptible to viruses. The harm varroa causes has increased over time, Steinhauer told the AP. While it once took a 60% infestation to harm a colony, an infestation of just 1-2% can now have devastating consequences.Another important cause of loss during 2022 and 2023 was "adverse weather." U.S. Department Agriculture research entomologist Jay Evans, who was not a part of the survey, told the AP that, in Washington, D.C., a spate of unusual 80°F days in January tricked bees into emerging earlier from winter habits only to face challenges when temperatures plunged again. In general, a change in seasonal rhythms can lead to a mismatch between the spring emergence of bees and the blooming of the flowers they rely on, The Hill pointed out.\

National pollinator strategy needed to save Canada's wild bees, say researchers - Canada's wild pollinators are in decline and without a national pollinator plan, many species could be heading for extinction, like the endangered rusty-patched bumblebee or the American bumblebee, say researchers at York University. Although the focus is usually on managed honey bees, unlike wild pollinators, they are not native to Canada, not adapted to this country's weather or plants and not at-risk of extinction, says the researchers. Wild pollinators are essential to Canada's economy, food security and ecosystems, but about 30 species, including eight bee species, are listed under Canada's Species at Risk Act. In the United States alone, non-managed wild pollinators are estimated to provide more than US$3 billion worth in crop pollination. Because of the urgency, and the multiple and widespread nature of the threats to wild pollinators, Associate Professor Sheila Colla of York's Native Pollinator Research Lab in the Faculty of Environmental and Urban Change and Postdoctoral Fellow Rachel Nalepa, tapped into the extensive knowledge of pollinator and conservation experts to develop solutions for wild pollinator conservation in Canada, along with a national pollinator framework with a clear set of actions. "Swift action is needed to protect wild pollinators, which will also benefit the agricultural sector, the environment and build climate change resiliency," says Colla. The study, "Toward a wild pollinator strategy for Canada: Expert recommended solution and policy levers," which involved a series of expert surveys, was published June 22 in the journal FACETS and is accompanied by their pollinator framework—Conserving Canada's Wild Pollinators: National Strategy Recommendations. "We've seen many other countries develop and implement pollinator protection policies, including our neighbors to the south, the U.S., which have incorporated pollinator protection into their farm bill and that has a lot of resources to go into creating habitat and other kinds of protections for at-risk bees," says Colla. Belgium, Spain, Norway, the Netherlands, France, Mexico, Ireland, Colombia, and Nigeria, and at least 24 other countries, have all adopted national strategies, plans or initiatives.

Indian police retain carrier pigeons as backstop against disasters (Reuters) -Even in today's world of instant messaging, video calls, the internet and mobile telephones, police in India's eastern state of Odisha are preserving a flock of carrier pigeons for use when disasters sever communication links. Dating from the days of British colonial rule when police stations used the birds to communicate with each other, the state's carrier pigeon service employs more than 100 Belgian Homer pigeons. "We have kept the pigeons for their heritage value and to preserve them for future generations," said Satish Kumar Gajbhiye, an inspector-general of police in the district of Cuttack. Police said the pigeons, which can fly at a speed of 55 kph (34 mph), for up to 500 miles (800 km) at a stretch, have proved a lifeline at least twice in the last four decades. They played a vital role after communication lines went down in 1999, when a powerful cyclone hit coastal areas, as well as in 1982, during devastating floods in some parts of the state. The pigeons usually carry messages written on lightweight onion paper, inserted into a capsule and then tied to a leg. "We start training the birds at five to six weeks old, when they are placed in a crate and put in their shelter," said Parshuram Nanda, who looks after the birds. As they get older, the pigeons are taken some distance away to be freed and fly back to the shelter by instinct. "The distance is increased gradually, and within 10 days, they are able to return from about 30 km (19 miles)," Nanda said. Carrier pigeons took news of the conquest of Gaul to Rome, brought to England the news of Napoleon’s defeat at Waterloo, and were widely used to carry messages during the two world wars. Studies show the pigeons can detect magnetic fields and zoom in on their destination from thousands of miles away, said historian Anil Dhir, who works with the police. "Even in the unlikely event that every mode of communication breaks down tomorrow, the pigeons will never fail," he said.

Elephant in the Room: Thailand’s National Animal Is Pushing Back against Habitat Loss - Thailand has seen an increasing number of deadly encounters between elephants and humans in recent years. The animals are returning to areas that were once covered in jungle, but are now farmland. Locals are at a loss. Between 2017 and 2022, more than 135 people in Thailand were trampled to death by elephants, and 15 have already been killed this year. The animals frequently destroy harvests and have been known to plunge farmers into financial difficulties. Some have had to abandon their lifework and move away. Navee Cheachean is president of the Chonburi Elephant Volunteers, one of dozens of such volunteer groups surrounding the Khao Ang Rue Nai preserve that is focused on keeping the elephants away. The group is made up of 20-something men and women dressed in camouflage who head out to the plantations in pickup trucks after fortifying themselves with curry and tick repellent. In a region where there isn’t much to do once the sun goes down – and the sun goes down early – aside from drink beer and listen to music, driving elephants out of surrounding farmland offers a welcome night-time diversion. On this particular evening, a farmer has called for help, saying that elephants had wandered into her orchard and were making a feast out of the ripe durians. "Nobody helps us. Policymakers look the other way," says Cheachean. "We are the only ones who help the people here." "To do this job," adds another member of the group, "you need heart and you need to be free of fear." The men and women surround the spot where they believe the animals to be on two sides, forming a V shape. They continue advancing up the hill, pushing the elephants out of the land that humans have laid claim to. Sometimes, the group works until dawn, drawing a line between the wilderness and civilization.

Orca Rams Into Yacht Near Scotland - A man sailing a yacht in the North Sea near Scotland’s Shetland Islands said that an orca repeatedly rammed into his boat earlier this week, exhibiting behavior that’s been recently seen in killer whales farther south. Retired Dutch physicist Dr. Wim Rutten was alone on a 7-ton yacht on Monday when an orca smacked into the boat’s stern, then circled back to hit it again and again “at fast speed,” he told The Guardian. The published Guardian interview did not mention any permanent damage to the vessel, just “soft shocks” felt through the hull. “Maybe he just wanted to play,” Rutten, who was mackerel fishing when the orca showed up, speculated. “Or look me in the eyes. Or to get rid of the fishing line.” His account bore a striking similarity to dozens of incidents reported this year in waters near Portugal and Spain. Last month, orcas broke the rudder and pierced the hull of a sailing boat near the coast of southern Spain, necessitating a rescue team to tow the vessel to a port. Three weeks prior, also off the Spanish coast, an orca trio rammed into and ultimately sank a yacht. No human deaths have occurred in any of the reported incidents. Dr. Alfredo López Fernandez, a biologist who authored a paper published last year on the phenomenon, believes the incidents originated with a female orca known to scientists as White Gladis. The theory goes that White Gladis had a traumatic encounter involving a boat and started to behave defensively against other boats, and her fellow orcas picked up the behavior. Not all scientists agree that’s what likely happened, though. “What I think is probably happening is it’s a playful behavior. It’s a social behavior,” Dr. Deborah Giles, science director at research and advocacy group Wild Orca, told Vice News. Giles suspects a young orca started playfully ramming boats, and others followed suit. Aside from the behavior’s origin, another question is whether it’s now spreading to northern waters or is arising there independently. Orca researcher Dr. Conor Ryan told The Guardian that it’s plausible that “highly mobile” orca pods are spreading the behavior northward. “It’s possible that this ‘fad’ is leapfrogging through the various pods/communities,” he said.

Orcas: Why have orcas been damaging and sinking so many boats? | New Scientist -- In the past few months, there have been several reports of orcas severely damaging sailing boats off the coast of Spain and Portugal. At least a dozen whales are taking part in the activity, sparking a flurry of speculation over whether the orcas (Orcinus orca) may be teaching each other how to bring down boats and organising into an army. But there are non-combative reasons that could be behind the rise in encounters. In the Strait of Gibraltar, there is a pod of orcas that have been ramming boats and ripping off the rudders, sinking three sailboats and damaging dozens more over the past year. The orcas began a new wave of activity this May, and videos documenting the encounters have been sweeping the internet since. People have been paying more attention recently, but altercations with these orcas have been reported for years. Scientists, fishermen and locals began reporting unusual encounters in the Strait of Gibraltar in May 2020. According to the Atlantic Orca Working Group, which tracks this pod, there were 207 reported interactions in 2022, and at least 20 last month alone. While many interactions were relatively harmless, at least three ships have sunk this year, with no reported injuries to people. In most encounters, orcas quickly approach the stern of the boat, with an apparent interest in the boat’s rudders, which they pierce or snap with their teeth. The whales have also been seen pressing into sailboats with their head and the flank of their body, occasionally tearing holes in the hull. Sometimes, they cause no damage to the ships, instead riding in the boat’s wake. Notably, this group of whales seems less interested in large or motorised vessels. “They’re hyper-focused on sailboats,” Each encounter usually involves only a handful of whales from a pod of around 39 total orcas. Images and video of the events are helping researchers track which individuals are most involved and which have yet to exhibit the behaviour. Currently, around 15 orcas are partaking in the boat-ramming activity. “It’s a behaviour that has probably spread from one individual,” Orcas are a social species capable of learning from their podmates, so it is possible the behaviour is a trend that is catching on. But that doesn’t mean that the whales are intentionally teaching their podmates to target boats, which would require communicating a motive and recruiting others to the cause. Instead, it may just look fun or interesting to the orcas.

Russia has doubled its pens of trained dolphins near Ukraine to guard its ships from attack by enemy divers, UK intel says -- Russia has significantly increased the number of pens containing trained dolphins near the strategic Black Sea port of Sevastopol, to help protect its naval forces, according to UK intelligence. Russia, which has a history of using marine animals in its military, has doubled the number of marine mammal pens in and around the Sevastopol harbor, the UK Ministry of Defence said in an intelligence update on Friday. The MOD described this as part of Russia's investments in "major enhancements to the security of the Black Sea Fleet's main base at Sevastopol" since summer 2022. Sevastopol, a city and major port on the Black Sea, is in Crimea, a region of Ukraine that Russia annexed in 2014 and has controlled ever since. The MOD said Russian increases to the fleet's security include "at least four layers of nets and booms across the harbour entrance." "In recent weeks, these defenses have highly likely also been augmented by an increased number of trained marine mammals," it said. It added that the animals "are highly likely intended to counter enemy divers." Placing dolphins at the mouth of the port could stop Ukrainian special operations forces getting into the harbor underwater, United States Naval Institute said earlier this year, though it noted that it is not clear if Ukraine has any plans to do this.

Chesapeake Bay's dead zone predicted to be 33% smaller than long-term average -- This summer's Chesapeake Bay "dead zone" is expected to be significantly smaller than the long-term average, according to a forecast released today by researchers from the University of Michigan, Chesapeake Bay Program, University of Maryland and U.S. Geological Survey. During spring and summer, nutrient pollution spurs the growth of algae blooms, which remove oxygen from the water when they die. These low-oxygen sections of the bay, known as hypoxic areas or "dead zones," can suffocate marine life and shrink the habitat available to fish, crabs and other creatures. But in 2023, the dead zone is predicted to be 33% smaller than the long-term average taken between 1985 and 2022. If the forecast proves accurate, this summer's Chesapeake Bay dead zone would be the smallest on record. The significantly-smaller-than-average forecast size is due largely to a lack of rainfall in spring 2023. Researchers working on the forecast calculated that from November 2022 to May 2023, river flows were 20% lower than the average. Less rainfall generally means there is a lower amount of nutrients being washed off the land and into the water. As a result, the amount of nitrogen pollution flowing into the bay from its watershed was 42% lower than the long-term average during January through May 2023. Scientists calculated 74 million pounds of nitrogen at nine river input monitoring stations, and 5.2 million pounds were tracked from wastewater treatment plants. This is a decrease from last year, when researchers noted 102 million pounds from monitoring stations and 5.7 million pounds from wastewater treatment plants.

Air quality alert in effect in Philly - An air-quality alert has been issued for Philadelphia and parts of Southwestern Pennsylvania as lingering smoke from the Canadian wildfires continues to drift toward the region. The Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection on Monday issued a “code orange” for the area, citing unhealthy pollution levels for young children, the elderly and those with respiratory problems. People vulnerable to poor air quality were urged to be careful, and those with breathing problems were urged to stay inside.The DEP warning covers the Philadelphia region, including Bucks, Chester, Delaware, and Montgomery counties, as well as the Lehigh Valley, the Susquehanna Valley, and Pittsburgh, and is expected to remain in place until Tuesday.Monday’s air-quality alert stands in contrast to the more serious alerts issued last week and earlier this month as smoke from fires that ravaged more than a million acres of Quebec woodlands generated smoke that affected air quality for a vast stretch of the eastern United States.While smoke from the Canadian wildfires continues to drift toward the region, AccuWeather senior meteorologist David Dombek said that was only a “minor contributor” to the air-quality concern. “Code orange it’s not unusual for the summer because wind decreases and the air becomes stagnant,” he said. “This is nothing anywhere near what we dealt with a couple of weeks ago.”DEP officials recommend that people who are sensitive to poor air quality wear a mask outside and limit outdoor exercise. People with asthma, emphysema, or bronchitis, they said, should take precautions a step farther and stay inside.

Smoky skies return to N.J. as Canadian wildfires worsen - Hazy skies have returned to the Garden State as smoke from the Canadian wildfires has started to drift in the state’s direction again.Forecasters reported an air quality index of 52, which is considered moderate, throughout the state on Sunday morning as a result of the traveling smoke.Levels are expected to remain in the moderate category throughout Sunday and Monday due to sunny skies, warm temperatures, and light winds, according to AirNow.gov. High temperatures in most of the state are expected to reach the low 80s on Sunday, according to the National Weather Service.The wildfires started in April and since then there have been more than 400, burning through nearly 12 million acres of Canadian forests. The Department of Environmental Protection said the hazy skies are not expected to cause air quality to plummet to the dangerous levels New Jersey saw earlier this month. Air quality levels reached the most dangerous level in 43 years on June 7, with an air quality index as high as 332 in some parts of the state, which is considered to be hazardous. Smoke from the wildfires started making its way back to New Jersey on Friday. Since then, daily air quality reports have remained at the moderate level.

Lehigh Valley under code orange air quality alert: Wildfire smoke from Canada will likely return Monday - The Lehigh Valley is under a code orange air quality alert Monday as smoke from Canadian wildfires is expected to affect the area once again. The Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection placed the Lehigh Valley and surrounding areas under the air quality alert throughout the day. Lingering smoke from wildfires in Canada will likely contribute to the 8-hour concentrations of ozone in the code orange range, according to the DEP. A code orange means there is unhealthy pollution levels for sensitive groups of people, including children, those suffering from asthma, heart disease or lung disease and the elderly. Officials recommend avoiding strenuous activity or exercise outdoors. The Philadelphia area, which also includes Bucks, Chester, Delaware and Montgomery counties, is also under a code orange air quality alert Monday. Airnow, which tracks air quality throughout the country, listed Allentown as having moderate air quality Monday morning. Earlier this month, smoke from wildfires in Canada caused unprecedented air quality issues for the Lehigh Valley. At one point, the Lehigh Valley had the worst air quality in the country.

Tracker: Where Canadian wildfire smoke pushes into northern US, mid-Atlantic - Wildfire smoke from hundreds of fires burning across Canada will continue to send smoke into the U.S. this week, creating air quality concerns for the Upper Midwest, Great Lakes and Northeast. Canada continues to have one of its worst wildfire seasons on record, in turn producing some of the worst air quality on record for major cities in the U.S., including the Twin Cities and New York City. Over the weekend, NOAA's GOES satellites continued to show the smoke pouring into the U.S., with some particles reaching as far south as the Gulf of Mexico. The FOX Forecast Center is tracking a prominent ridge of high pressure expected to develop over the Upper Midwest this week. This will allow the winds to blow from the northeast, transporting the smoke from Quebec southwestward into the region. The U.S. Air Quality Fire and Smoke map shows the smoke moving further into the U.S. down through the mid-Atlantic on Tuesday. However, smoke concentration will be light for a majority of the U.S. and fairly high up in the atmosphere. The Upper Midwest and Great Lakes continue to be under the veil of wildfire smoke, with light to moderate smoke levels across Duluth in Minnesota and Green Bay and Milwaukee in Wisconsin. The Northeast is also on the receiving end of the Canadian wildfire smoke. Wildfire smoke was visible in Western and Central New York on Monday with Moderate levels on the Air Quality Index. However, it's nowhere near as bad as two weeks ago when wildfire smoke turned the skies in New York orange and red. "Forecasts currently show there may be temporary spikes where AQI levels exceed the Moderate range, but the overall AQI for a 24-hour period is anticipated to remain in the Moderate AQI level," according to a statement from New York Gov. Kathy Hochul's office. "Although smoke may be visible at high altitudes, these levels remain far below the levels experienced by New Yorkers earlier this month, and are below the threshold to issue an Air Quality Health Advisory."

Breathing in Canadian wildfire smoke could affect your health for years - Study Finds— Hundreds of wildfires burning in Canada have led to incredibly poor air quality and smog traveling over several areas of the eastern United States. During the first week of June 2023, New York City actually had the worst air quality anywhere on the planet. Now, a comprehensive new study investigating smoke exposure is raising major concerns about the long-term health impact of breathing in wildfire smog.Researchers from Monash University report that a 10 μg/m³ increase in exposure to wildfire-related fine particulate matter (PM_2.5) has an association with a 0.4-percent increased risk of both all-cause and non-accidental death, as well as a 0.5-percent higher risk of dying from neoplasms — an abnormal growth of tissue typical in cancer cases.On June 8, 2023, at the peak of air pollution due to the Canadian wildfires, levels of PM_2.5 reached as high as 460 μg/m³.This project was the first to assess the relationship between long-term exposure, with an 11-year follow-up period, to wildfire-related PM_2.5 and mortality. Notably, researchers found no significant associations connecting wildfire-related PM_2.5 exposure with mortality from cardiovascular, respiratory, and mental diseases.Prior studies focusing on the health impacts of wildfire-related PM_2.5 exposure have noted an increased risk of all-cause, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality. However, according to lead researcher Associate Professor Shanshan Li, from the School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, most of that work had focused on short-term impacts.“We aimed to estimate the long-term impacts of wildfire-related PM_2.5 exposure on mortality in adults using a large-scale national cohort database from the UK Biobank,” the researcher says in a media release. “To the best of our knowledge, this is the first population-based prospective cohort study to quantify the associations between long-term exposure to wildfire-relatedPM_2.5 and mortality.”These findings come from data provided by the UK Biobank, encompassing 492,394 participants enrolled between 2004 and 2010, all of whom are followed up regularly in the U.K. The participants submit biological samples and complete surveys regarding their lifestyle – all of which is linked to their health-related records.Study authors extracted mortality data, including the underlying (primary) cause of death and date of death, which the team then mapped to wildfire-related PM_2.5 exposure one to five years before death. All in all, Prof. Lee concludes these findings “show that wildfire-related PM_2.5 exposure has long-lasting adverse impacts on all-cause, non-accidental, and neoplasm mortality.”“Given the recent pollution levels in North America caused by the Canadian wildfires, our study linking long-term exposure to wildfire-related PM_2.5 and mortality suggest that further research is urgently needed to provide more scientific evidence on this topic.”The study is published in the Journal of Hazardous Materials.

Wildfire smoke is deadly: Why isn’t it accounted for in our climate policy? -Smoke from Canadian wildfires traveled hundreds of miles along the U.S. East Coast this week and last week, forcing millions of people to breathe air laced with harmful pollutants. The mix of pollution from these fires contains particles and gases that impede healthy lung and heart function. The levels of pollution New York City, Washington and many other cities experienced over the last few days led to an increased risk of asthma attacks, heart attacks, strokes, emergency room visits and hospital admissions. Even short-duration exposure to these chemicals in the air is associated with an increased risk of early death. As the world warms, the amount of wildfire smoke pollution experienced this week could become the norm in the future. Drier air and soils, warmer temperatures and sustained high wind speeds combine into a perfect storm known as fire weather. During fire weather periods, a lightning strike, a carelessly discarded cigarette or a sparking power line is all it takes to ignite a fire that grows out of control. Humans actually start over 80 percent of wildfires in the U.S., contributing 5-10 percent to total fine particle pollution nationwide, a troubling statistic as people move closer and closer to wildlands. Climate scientists predict that fire weather will become more common across the U.S. in the future, resulting in longer wildfire seasons, more intense fires and more smoke. Some studies indicate that wildfires could become the dominant contributor to harmful fine particles across the U.S. in the future unless we work quickly to make deep cuts in carbon emissions.Wildfire smoke is just one of many ways that climate change is already affecting our health. Across the U.S., we’ve already seen dramatic public health consequences of extreme heat waves, destructive storms and expanded habitats for disease-carrying mosquitoes and ticks, and these climate-sensitive hazards are expected to get worse as the human influence on the climate grows. My research shows that climate change is expected to exacerbate dust exposure, smog and pollen too. The wildfire connection is among the most studied and well-established links between climate change and human health in the scientific literature. Scientists have established each step of the causal chain: Climate change increases wildfire area burned, wildfire area burned increases air pollution emissions, air pollution emissions increase exposure levels and exposure levels lead to health outcomes. Each of these links stems from a peer-reviewed body of literature in climate science, ecology, atmospheric science and public health.And yet, this clear climate-health connection is missing from the list of societal improvements the government considers when weighing the costs and benefits of reducing greenhouse gases.

The national emergency no one’s talking about: Firefighters are quitting in droves. Here’s why. – Morton, the crew boss, left the group to inspect nearby spot fires that had started after fiery embers floated across the bulldozer line – a line in the ground where all vegetation is stripped back to prevent the fire from advancing.He radioed to his colleagues to help put out the spot fires. Moments later, 60 mph gusts of wind rapidly spread the ferocious blaze to nearby fresh vegetation, encircling Morton, 39.That was the last time he was heard from or seen alive. His body was found hours later beside his fire shelter, which was still folded up. His clothes had been completely burned off his body.Morton was one of the 27 wildland firefighters killed that year from incidents related to fighting fires. But those wildland firefighters are not the only ones to lose their lives. As climate change relentlessly fuels drought and extreme temperatures across the western United States, stagnated wages have created problems for overworked and understaffed wildland firefighters, such as homelessness, suicide, and cancer, according to a May 2021 study presented at the International Association of Wildland Fire 6th Annual Human Dimensions Conference. A temporary two-year pay raise helped the service retain many of its firefighters, but that expires in September and will reduce wildland firefighters’ salaries by about $1,500 a month. Without it, most earn under $40,000 a year, which is below the living wage in every state in the country, according to an analysis using the Massachusetts Institute of Technology’s living wage calculator. Even the United States Department of Agriculture has featured the struggles of wildland firefighters on its website, pointing out how some are on food stamps. It’s expected that 50% of wildland firefighters will quit once the temporary pay raise expires on Sept. 30, noted Munoz, who said that in addition to the death of Morton, he’d lost firefighting friends to cancer and suicide over the last three years.Wildland firefighters are generally exposed to far more significant risks than those in towns and cities. They work and live in camps, sleeping in already blackened and dusty parts of burned-out forests for weeks.The fires they deal with are far more extensive and can spread faster. Because of the need to move quickly in remote areas, many wildland firefighters use only bandanas and N95 masks instead of conventional respirators. The air cylinders last 30-60 minutes, with replacements weighing 30 lbs. It’s completely impractical to move them through rugged forests with that kind of weight. That means the average wildland firefighter is exposed to smoke inhalation for between 8 and 16 hours throughout the wildfire season. Although research is ongoing, there is some evidence that these conditions have contributed to severe respiratory problems and cancer. A 2023 study by the Lancet medical journal confirmed the occupational link between smoke inhaled as part of the wildland firefighters’ job and cancer. The International Agency for Research on Cancer also recently categorized wildfire smoke as a group 1 carcinogen.Despite understanding the inherent risks of the job, the federal government has been accused of providing inadequate resources, resulting in insufficient training, safety measures, and healthcare access.

Gas stoves emit benzene, linked to cancer, a new Stanford study shows : NPR - When the blue flame fires up on a gas stove, there's more than heat coming off the burner. Researchers at Stanford University found that among the pollutants emitted from stoves is benzene, which is linked to cancer. Levels of benzene can reach higher than those found in secondhand tobacco smoke and the benzene pollution can spread throughout a home, according to the research. The findings add to a growing body of scientific evidence showing that emissions within the home are more harmful than gas stove owners have been led to believe. And it comes as stoves have been dragged into the country's ongoing culture wars. Stanford scientists measured benzene from gas stoves in 87 California and Colorado homes in 2022 for the paper published in the journal Environmental Science and Technology. They found both natural gas and propane stoves "emitted detectable and repeatable levels of benzene that in some homes raised indoor benzene concentrations above well-established health benchmarks." The risks of benzene have long been known. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention says the chemical is linked to leukemia and other blood cell cancers.

Senate fails to override Biden veto of attempt to overturn truck pollution rule -- The Senate on Wednesday failed to override President Biden’s veto of legislation that would have overturned his administration’s truck pollution rule. Both chambers of Congress previously passed a measure that would overturn the rule thatseeks to limit pollution from heavy-duty vehicles, including trucks and buses.Biden veto of that effort last week required a two-thirds majority in both chambers to be overturned.The Senate vote Wednesday was 50-50; Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin (W.Va.) voted with Republicans in favor of the override. Manchin was also the only Democrat who voted with Republicans the last time the issue came before the chamber in April, but with another Democrat, Sen. Dianne Feinstein (Calif.), being absent at the time, the measure advanced. The rule in question aims to restrict emissions of pollutants called nitrogen oxides that can contribute to the development of asthma. The regulation is expected to cut nitrogen oxide emissions by 50 percent in the year 2045 and prevent 2,900 premature deaths that year alone.Proponents of the rule tout its health benefits, as Biden did in his veto message.“The rule cuts pollution, boosts public health, and advances environmental justice in communities across the country. It will prevent hundreds, if not thousands, of premature deaths; thousands of childhood asthma cases; and millions of missed school days every year,” the president said last week.

The unfinished business of East Palestine's train derailment -Four months after a Norfolk Southern train carrying a toxic cocktail of hazardous materials derailed in East Palestine, Ohio, the town is back in the news.Chemical company CEOs, union officials, railroad lobbyists and federal investigators are descending upon the village of 5,000 for a two-day field hearing this week to dig deep into the causes and outcomes of the Feb. 3 derailment.There’s a lot of unfinished business to discuss.But before the hearing kicks off Thursday, spanning 19 hours over two days, community members will have their chance at the microphone.The community meeting scheduled for Wednesday night is supposed to be a venue for residents to learn more about the National Transportation Safety Board’s investigative process. But residents could also raise concerns about water quality, dead fish, declining home values and their kids’ unexplained nosebleeds.“There are some people in town who didn’t evacuate at all,” said Misti Allison, an East Palestine parent who became the face of the community after she testified before the Senate Commerce Committee in March about the disaster. “But then you still have some people, even months later, that are still relocated. And some of those people, they even come to their house, they’re there for an hour or so and they’re starting to get eye irritations or starting to get rashes.”In the months since the cameras — and everyone from Donald Trump to Erin Brokovich and everyone else who used East Palestine as a political stage — have left town, anxieties and resentments have continued to fester. Many continue to feel that the federal response was “lackluster,” in Allison’s words, or that Norfolk Southern’s repeated promises to “make it right” have been haphazardly honored.A family assistance center run by the railroad sometimes reimburses people for water filters and lodging away from home — and sometimes doesn’t, Allison said.Norfolk Southern said it has provided $17 million in assistance to nearly 10,000 families to date and that some of the confusion might stem from who is and who isn’t inside the evacuation zone.And after initially resisting the idea, Norfolk Southern has agreed to help compensate East Palestine homeowners for the decline in their home values — especially important to those who feel unsafe and are eager to move but can’t sell their house for anything close to what it was worth before the derailment.Even if the cameras are gone, the politics are never far from the surface. Republicans continue to whack President Joe Biden for not visiting the site of the toxic derailment — on Tuesday, on the eve of the field hearing, the Republican National Committee accused him of lying about his intention to go to East Palestine, and noted that the president was instead in California attending a fundraiser.Back in Ohio, Gov. Mike DeWine is resisting calls from some protestors to declare an emergency — his office says FEMA has made it clear they’d reject it — and Norfolk Southern is fighting state and federal lawsuits trying to force the railroad to cover more of the costs of the cleanup. Some residents have called for the CDC to do a long-term health study, amid fears that a “cancer cluster” could hit the community down the line. When the CDC sent a team to East Palestine in March to study the health effects of the disaster,half of the team got sick.If Wednesday night’s community meeting goes off script and becomes a forum for residents to vent their frustrations and fears, this is the sort of dirty laundry that might get aired.The investigative hearing that follows will feature testimony about the full gamut of technical details involved in the derailment — tank car specifications and the proper temperature setting for alarms to start sounding about overheating wheel parts — but one focus will likely be on the decision to vent and burn toxic chemicals.DeWine’s press secretary, Dan Tierney, said the choice was between a controlled release or “an uncontrolled release with a catastrophic failing of the railcars that could have led to shrapnel being sent a mile in any direction.” NTSB will examine the decision-making and the result of that process.

NTSB holds 2-day hearing on East Palestine toxic train derailment - The National Transportation Safety Board will start taking sworn testimony Thursday as part of its probe into thetoxic train derailment in East Palestine, Ohio.The agency is holding an investigative hearing on Thursday and Friday in East Palestine, where a Norfolk Southern Railway train carrying toxic chemicals derailed on Feb. 3, resulting in the release of hazardous materials into the air, soil and creeks in the area.A preliminary NTSB report released in the weeks following the incident found that a wheel bearing failed moments before 38 cars derailed in the incident -- including 11 tank cars carrying hazardous materials that subsequently ignited. Five of the tank cars contained 115,580 gallons of vinyl chloride, a highly volatile colorless gas produced for commercial uses. Responders subsequently conducted an hourslong controlled release and burn of the vinyl chloride, causing a large ball of fire and sending a plume of black smoke filled with contaminants into the air.The two-day hearing, described as a "fact-finding step" in the NTSB's safety investigation, is expected to focus on the communications and preparedness for the initial emergency response, what led to the decision to vent and burn the vinyl chloride tank cars, and the freight car bearing failure modes and wayside detection systems, among other topics.Witnesses, who will testify under oath, will include representatives of Norfolk Southern, the Federal Railroad Administration, the Ohio National Guard and several local fire and police departments, the NTSB said. A hearing agenda, including witnesses scheduled to testify, is available here.Those able to ask witnesses questions include NTSB's board members and investigative staff and designated parties, including the Norfolk Southern Corporation, Federal Railroad Administration, Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration and Village of East Palestine.The NTSB will use the information gathered during the hearing to "complete the investigation, determine probable cause, and make recommendations to improve transportation safety," the agency said. Its full investigation could take up to 18 months from the date of the accident to complete, it said."The communities most affected by this tragedy deserve as much insight as possible into our investigation, which is why we're holding an investigative hearing in East Palestine," NTSB Chair Jennifer Homendy said in a statement. "While we unfortunately cannot change what happened that day, our entire agency is committed to carrying out our mission, which doesn't end when we get to the bottom of what happened and why it happened -- we'll also work vigorously to prevent it from ever happening again."

Witnesses questioned on Ohio train derailment; fire chief ‘blindsided’ - The Washington Post — The National Transportation Safety Board is hosting two days of hearings beginning Thursday into the freight train derailment and chemical spill in East Palestine, Ohio. The February derailment morphed from a serious derailment into a national political story after authorities decided to vent and burn the hazardous vinyl chloride the train was carrying. The fire sent a plume of black smoke above the small community and left residents fearing for their health. East Palestine Fire Chief Keith Drabick told investigators he made the decision to vent and burn hazardous vinyl chloride gas on the derailed train, according to a transcript released Thursday. But Drabick said he was “blindsided” when Norfolk Southern and its contractors told him he had just 13 minutes to make the call so they could start the procedure before it got dark. The NTSB released almost 5,000 pages of records Thursday detailing its investigation into the East Palestine derailment. The records include summaries prepared by investigators as well as technical reports, interview transcripts and photographs. The manufacturer of the vinyl chloride told investigators in the weeks after the derailment that the gas did not pose an explosion risk as emergency crews in East Palestine feared, according to documents the National Transportation Safety Board released Thursday. The train had experienced multiple problems as it made its way to East Palestine in early February. Surveillance videos captured along the route toward East Palestine show fire was visible beneath the train long before its derailment.DOJ is also suing Norfolk Southern over the toxic train derailment. Senators questioned Norfolk Southern’s CEO on rail safety records as Ohio is suing the freight company. In February, the National Transportation Safety Board released a preliminary report on the Ohio train derailment. One toxic gas, vinyl chloride, was burned after the derailment, sending various toxins and chemicals into the air. The EPA is handling the disaster response. The Biden administration is taking heat for not doing enough to help, while Ohio residents are angry after Norfolk Southern backed out of a town hall addressing the response. The derailment also killed more than 43,000 aquatic animals in the area. Here’s what to know about the derailment’s toxic plume.

NTSB hears tales of chaos in aftermath of E. Palestine derailment - The Vindicator — February’s Norfolk Southern train derailment was described as a “low probability but high-consequence event” during the first session of a National Transportation Safety Board investigative hearing. The two-day hearing at East Palestine High School, which continues today, began with a session that focused on communications and the preparedness of first responders and put a light on the chaos of minutes and hours following the derailment. Today’s hearing starts at 9 a.m. The first session will analyze the role wheel bearings and waywise detectors plated in the derailment. The second session will consider tank car safety. “I don’t think you can ever be prepared for something like this,” East Palestine fire Chief Keith Drabick said while recounting the crippling challenges those first on the scene faced that Feb. 3 night. Commotion replaced communication as first responders tried to assess the situation. They didn’t know if there had been any casualties. They didn’t know if the train’s crew had survived the derailment, much less where they were. And they didn’t know what was on the train. Drabick said it took 45 minutes for emergency crews to figure out that they were fighting a chemical fire. When they did, firefighters were pulled back and an evacuation order was given. “Our first priority is responder safety then public safety,” East Liverpool Hazmat Chief Bill Jones said. “And first responder safety was a challenge that night.” A list of all cars and contents was requested from Norfolk Southern at 9:04 p.m. by a call from East Palestine dispatch to Atlanta. That call was not returned. Dispatch called again at 9:30 to determine if an evacuation of the town was warranted. No information was obtained from that call either. The list of cars and contents finally reached the Columbiana County Emergency Management Agency via email from Norfolk Southern at 9:56 p.m — as NTSB Chair Jennifer Homendy put it “nearly an hour after the train had derailed.” It was 10 p.m. before Drabick received a copy and 10:23 p.m. before it reached Jones’ hands. East Palestine police had the list at 1:30 a.m. and, at 2:15 a.m., Drabick found a hard copy sitting on a desk at the command post. The inability of Norfolk Southern to get that information to the first responders concerned Homendy but she was more concerned that CTEH — a company contracted by the railroad to perform air-quality testing — had a copy at 9:04 p.m. “How is it that Norfolk Southern could provide the contractors responsible for cleanup with the information within 12 minutes of the derailment and took an hour to several hours before providing it to emergency responders?” Homendy inquired. “The fire chief had to find a copy at 2:15 a.m. sitting on a desk at the command post.” Lack of such information from Norfolk Southern wasn’t the only breakdown in communications that night.

Hearing examines key choices made in days after fiery Ohio train derailment — The fire chiefs whose departments were the first on scene of February’s fiery train derailment in eastern Ohio agree that firefighters need more training about hazardous chemicals, but that it would be hard for them ever to be fully prepared to deal with a disaster of this magnitude. The National Transportation Safety Board is holding a two-day field hearing in East Palestine, Ohio, on the Feb. 3 Norfolk Southern derailment. Thursday’s proceedings are focused on the emergency response to the derailment and the crucial decision officials made three days later to release the toxic vinyl chloride from five tank cars and burn it to keep them from exploding. That move sent a towering plume of black smoke over the town near the Ohio-Pennsylvania border and prompted the evacuation of about half of East Palestine’s 5,000 residents. Officials have defended that decision as the best option when faced with the prospect of an explosion that would have sent shrapnel into the town. But residents have many questions about possible lingering health effects even though state and federal officials say tests show the air and water in town remains safe. East Palestine Fire Chief Keith Drabick said there was a consensus in the command center that releasing the chemicals from the cars and burning them was the “least bad option.” But Drabick and other first responders who testified at the hearing agreed that firefighters need more training — particularly volunteer firefighters who were first on the scene after the derailment — on how to handle hazardous materials. “I don’t think you can ever be prepared for something like this,” Drabick said. Ohio officials said volunteer firefighters receive only 36 hours of initial training when they are certified — significantly less than the 200 hours professional firefighters receive — and that no hazardous materials training is included. The fire chiefs said the initial response to the derailment was complicated because the radios used by the different departments don’t work with each other. It also took some time for emergency responders to find out exactly what the train was carrying because the first firefighters on scene didn’t have access to the AskRail app that railroads developed to provide that information. The train crew that had that information was a mile away after moving the locomotive and didn’t immediately connect with first responders. Drabick said it took about 45 minutes for his department to gather information about what was on the train. The railroad has been digging up and removing contaminated soil and water from the derailment site. The Environmental Protection Agency and Ohio officials are overseeing the cleanup. Norfolk Southern has committed more than $62 million to helping the town recover. The railroad has said it expects the derailment will eventually cost it nearly $400 million, although insurance will cover some of that and any other companies that are found responsible may have to contribute. The cost is expected to increase as lawsuits filed by states, the federal government and residents work their way through the courts.

Railcar that triggered East Palestine derailment hadn’t been recently inspected — The National Transportation Safety Board on Friday is hosting the second half of a two-day hearing into the freight train derailment and chemical spill in East Palestine, Ohio. The February derailment morphed from a serious derailment into anational political story after authorities decided to vent and burn the hazardous vinyl chloride the train was carrying. The fire sent a plume of black smoke above the small community and left residents fearing for their health.Here’s what to know

• The railcar that suffered an overheated bearing, causing the derailment in East Palestine, had not recently been inspected, a union official said. Jason Cox, a representative of the Brotherhood Railway Carmen, said the risk posed by the bearing might have been detected had the car been given a close look.
• The East Palestine fire chief told investigators probing a Norfolk Southern derailment that the railroad gave him 13 minutes to decide whether to vent and burn carloads of hazardous vinyl chloride — a timeline he said left him feeling “blindsided.” The decision would change a serious derailment in early February into a national event that became the backdrop for weeks of culture war battles.
• The on-scene hearing is the first since the NTSB sent representatives to Alaska as part of a plane crash investigation six years ago and is a rare chance for the public to observe the NTSB’s investigators at work.
• Here’s what the derailed train was carrying — and what was burned.

N.S. inspectors get just 30 seconds to inspect each rail car -- (WKBN) – Friday is the second day of the NTSB’s Investigative Hearing in East Palestine. The hearings began with a list of all parties involved, including panel members and witnesses. Then, the NTSB issued an official timeline of the derailment.Early into the hearing, FRA requirements for railway inspections, along with the defective bearing were brought into question.Jason Cox, chair of the Transportation Communications Union explained there are two groups authorized to perform railway inspections. Under 215 a group of people called carmen are authorized to do inspections, a group of safety inspections. Under Appendix D the train crew can do the inspection.Cox explained there is a different type of training required from each group. The train crews require less than the carmen.The inspection of the derailed car was then brought up.“What type of inspections were performed on the first car to derail from when Norfolk Southern first received the car in Madison, Illinois up to the train derailment in East Palestine?” he was asked.“My understanding of the record, when Norfolk and Southern received the car there was no inspection done. So the car came from another railroad and traditionally there would be an interchange inspection and the cars would be looked at, but as I’ve said there’s less and less class 1 carriers and therefore they are relying more on the Appendix D,” Cox said.Cox went on to explain that the train car traveled through Decatur, Illinois, stopped in Toledo and Cleveland, Ohio and passed through Bellvue, Ohio. However, he says an inspection was not permitted. “There are qualified mechanical inspectors at all these points and they were not allowed to inspect this car at any of those locations,” he said.In September 2022 a letter was sent by the FRA administrator to class 1 railroads with specific concerns about the level and type of railcar inspections. Cox was asked if Norfolk Southern has addressed the letter sent 10 months ago.“To my knowledge, they have not responded to that letter and to expand upon my knowledge of that letter, when the local representatives at various points across the NS system asked their transportation management about this letter and letting the carmen do the detailed inspections, the response was, ‘this letter says I do not have to do this, therefore Norfolk and Southern is not going to do this,'” Cox said.

Mississippi tornado claims a life, causes widespread damage amid record southern heat - (5 videos) Severe storms, including reported tornadoes, have wrought havoc in Jasper County, Mississippi, resulting in one fatality and 18 injuries, while the South contends with record-high temperatures. A series of severe storms, including what is believed to have been a tornado, have ravaged Jasper County, Mississippi, leaving one person dead and 18 others injured on June 18, 2023. Simultaneously, sweltering heat is challenging records across the southern United States. Hudson Jenkins, director of Jasper County Emergency Management, informed ABC News that 20 to 30 homes were “majorly affected or destroyed.” This reported tornado in Louin, Jasper County was one of 17 observed across Arkansas, Oklahoma, Texas, Mississippi, Alabama, Florida, Oregon, and Colorado over the weekend. Vice president of marketing and community relations at South Central Regional Medical Center, located about 45 minutes north of Louin, said the hospital received 20 storm victims from the Louin area, one of whom died. The other victims are stable and most have been discharged. Four additional tornadoes were reported across the South on June 19: one each in Alabama and Florida, and two in Mississippi. Meanwhile, communities from Mobile, Alabama, to Pensacola, Florida, were placed under a flood watch due to forecasts predicting heavy rainfall on already saturated areas. Further west, a severe thunderstorm watch has been issued for San Angelo, Texas, which is set to last through Monday evening. The weather outlook for June20 warns of potential severe storms across Louisiana and into Mobile, Alabama. These storms could bring damaging winds, large hail, and brief tornadoes, adding to the tumultuous weather conditions. Amid this stormy onslaught, the South is also grappling with record-high temperatures. Over the weekend, Del Rio, Texas, reached a record-breaking high of 43.8 °C (111 °F) , while New Iberia, Louisiana, tied its record high of 36.1 °C (97 °F). This record-breaking heat wave is anticipated to persist for much of the week, with the peak of the heat in cities from Dallas to Houston expected on June 20 and 21. However, some respite is expected by June 22.

Thur. 7:30 a.m.: Tornadoes tear through northwest Texas town, killing 4 people and causing widespread damage - A line of severe storms produced what a meteorologist calls a rare combination of multiple tornadoes, hurricane-force winds and softball-sized hail in northwest Texas, killing at least four people and causing significant damage around the town of Matador. A supercell developed about 8 p.m. Wednesday near Amarillo before striking Matador, killing four people, injuring nine and causing widespread damage, said senior forecaster Matt Ziebell with the National Weather Service in Lubbock. The storm later produced 109 mph (175 kph) winds at Jayton in addition to the 4-inch (10.2-centimeter) or larger hail, according to Ziebell. “That is certainly rare to see all at the same time, killer tornadoes, hurricane-force winds and softball-sized hail,” Zeibell said. Wednesday “was definitely a rare combination of high-end wind shear and storms of extreme instability,” according to Ziebell. There were widespread power outages across the region, with more than 900 customers without power in the Matador and Jayton areas, according to poweroutage.us. The worst damage appeared to be in Matador — a town of about 570 people 70 miles (112 kilometers) northeast of Lubbock in Motley County. A phone call to the Motley County Sheriff’s Office was not immediately returned. Texas Department of Emergency Management district coordinator Bill Durham said more information will be released later Thursday morning. Reports from storm chasers and meteorologists on social media showed considerable damage around Matador, with damaged homes, utility lines, trees and infrastructure. Ziebell said thunderstorms were likely to continue Thursday, but the risk of severe weather with tornadoes was unlikely. Wednesday’s tornado outbreak came six days after a tornado left three people dead and more than 100 injured in Perryton in the northern Texas Panhandle.

Matador, Texas takes direct hit from large tornado, leaving three dead and widespread damage - (4 videos) Severe storms left a trail of destruction in West Texas on Wednesday, June 21, 2023, spawning multiple tornadoes, including one that directly hit the Matador community, resulting in at least three fatalities and widespread damage. In the wake of a potent storm system on the Rolling Plains of West Texas on June 21, a series of tornadoes wreaked havoc, causing severe damage and loss of life. The severe storm line also spawned softball-sized hail and wind gusts exceeding 160 km/h (100 mph) in other areas such as Jayton. As the storm system moved southeast post-sunset on Wednesday, Jayton, too, found itself under a tornado warning issued by the National Weather Service in Lubbock. Power outages affected the Rolling Plains, with more than 700 customers in the Jayton area left without electricity, according to South Plains Electric Cooperative. However, the worst damage was reported from the Motley County community of Matador, a small town with a population of approximately 570 located 112 km (70 miles) northeast of Lubbock. William Iwasko, a senior forecaster with the National Weather Service in Lubbock, confirmed three tornadoes within the storm line but noted that the one in Matador caused the most significant damage. Lubbock Fire Rescue confirmed its deployment to assist with damage recovery in Matador. “I gave the order for Heavy Rescue 1 to respond to the town of Matador to assist in freeing trapped residents from collapsed structures,” LFR Chief Shaun Fogerson stated. Furthermore, Lubbock’s University Medical Center confirmed the dispatch of its AMBUS mobile medical unit to assist in Matador. As the storms continued to travel southeast, new tornado warnings were issued for Dickens and King counties until 22:00 LT. The weather service warned of a particularly dangerous situation with a confirmed large and extremely dangerous tornado. As the storm continued its path southward from Matador, a confirmed tornado was spotted northeast of the Afton community, moving southeast at 32 km/h (20 mph). At the height of the storm, nearly 500 000 customers across Texas were without power. Asa of, 09:10 UTC on June 22, 103 276 customers are without power in Texas, 74 746 in Oklahoma and 24 002 in Louisiana. This severe weather event came just six days after a confirmed EF-3 tornado in Perryton in the northern Texas Panhandle resulted in three fatalities and left over 100 injured.

Hailstorm injures almost 100 at Louis Tomlinson concert at Red Rocks Amphitheater in Colorado - (video) A severe hailstorm that broke out during a Louis Tomlinson concert at Colorado’s Red Rocks Amphitheater on Wednesday, June 21, 2023, has resulted in nearly 100 injuries, seven of which are serious. The severe weather forced an abrupt cancellation of the open-air event. Music fans expecting a night of enjoyment at Louis Tomlinson’s concert in Colorado’s renowned Red Rocks Amphitheatre had their expectations overturned when a hailstorm struck the open-air venue, leading to nearly 100 people being injured. The sudden and severe weather conditions on Wednesday night, June 21, 2023, forced organizers to call off the concert. The hailstorm, which caught concert-goers off guard, compelled them to seek cover as hail, in some instances the size of tennis balls, battered the outdoor venue located about 16 km (10 miles) from Denver. The West Metro Fire Rescue department reported that between “80 to 90 people” were treated on-site for their injuries, which included cuts and broken bones. “Injuries include cuts and broken bones,” a fire department official shared with NBC News. Seven people with serious injuries were taken to local hospitals for further treatment. Fans and concert attendees shared terrifying accounts of the event on Twitter, with one user describing the scene as “straight out of a horror movie.” Another attendee, Nicole, called the night “the scariest night of my life.” According to Nicole, she and her sister sought refuge under a sign as hail began to pelt people at the venue. “I am bleeding and have bumps on my head from the hail,” she recounted in her post. The National Weather Service in Boulder had issued severe thunderstorm warnings for the region, with the forecast of “golf ball-sized hail” in some areas. Videos of the distressing event were shared on Twitter by several users who had attended the concert, showing the magnitude of the hailstorm that led to the injuries.

Summer snowstorm strikes Alberta, confounds residents with unusual June snowfall, Canada - The western Canadian province of Alberta experienced a rare snowstorm on Monday, June 19, 2023. The surprise snowfall blanketed landscapes and left 60 people stranded on trails, lake areas, and roads within Jasper National Park. Jasper National Park, nestled within the province, bore the brunt of the storm, with some areas of the park receiving 55 cm (22 inches) of snow and more than 100 mm (4 inches) of rain on Monday, according to park officials. The severe weather conditions left 60 visitors stranded on park trails, lake areas, and roads, necessitating their rescue. Images of a tour bus stuck in deep snow depict the challenging circumstances faced in the park. The snowstorm also impacted the nearby city of Jasper, causing extensive tree and branch damage. City officials, including Jasper Mayor Richard Ireland, were taken aback by the unusual weather event. “I can’t remember seeing snow like this in June in my lifetime,” Mayor Ireland told CTV News Edmonton. Although snowfall is a regular occurrence in the high mountains year-round, the recent snowstorm surprised residents by descending into the valley in the middle of summer, as reported by CBC. The unpredictability of mountain weather was reiterated by national park officials who stated, “We aren’t kidding when we say ‘mountain weather is unpredictable.'” Sara Hoffman, a meteorologist with Environment and Climate Change Canada, explained the abnormal snowstorm as a result of a “low pressure system” combined with “a lot of cold air aloft flooding into the province.”

Unusual cold spell leads to large-scale cattle deaths in Brazil - In a rare occurrence, almost 3 000 cattle have succumbed to hypothermia in Brazil’s Mato Grosso do Sul state in recent days, local veterinary services announced on their website on Wednesday, June 21, 2023. The event has raised concerns due to its uncommon nature, despite the minimal impact on the country’s massive cattle herd. The cattle deaths represent an insignificant fraction of Brazil’s estimated 224 million strong cattle population. As such, their loss is not expected to disrupt beef production for meatpackers such as JBS (JBSS3.SA), which operate in the state. However, the incident has attracted attention due to its rarity. According to local press reports, the temperatures in the most impacted areas fluctuated between 6 and 9 °C (43 to 48 °F). Alcides Torres, the proprietor of agribusiness consultancy Scot Consultoria, reassured that local cattle breeds can typically withstand the low temperatures characteristic of Brazil’s winter, which started today. He remarked, “Brazil exports live cattle for slaughtering in Turkey below snow. It was the cold but there was something else.” The veterinary services of Mato Grosso do Sul did not respond to requests for further comment, beyond a statement updating the tally of cold-related cattle deaths to 2 725. The statement explained that hypothermia ensues when the body temperature drops below normal. It can be classified as mild, moderate, or severe in cattle. Factors such as the animal’s nutritional state, the low availability and quality of pastures, and the absence of shelters against sudden climatic changes, rainfall, and winds, all potentially contribute to instances of mortality due to hypothermia. The statement also noted that “previous episodes of mortality due to weather conditions in the state have already been described as prone to occur in a cyclical way.”

Deadly storms sweep across Greece, Serbia and Bosnia and Herzegovina – video -A wave of unseasonable weather ravaged Greece on Saturday, June 17, 2023, flooding streets and homes, felling trees, and sweeping away vehicles in Thessaloniki, ultimately claiming two lives. The same weather system affected Serbia and Bosnia and Herzegovina. Greece was hit by an onslaught of stormy weather on Saturday, June 17, resulting in flooded streets and houses, fallen trees, and cars being swept away in Thessaloniki. This latest weather event is part of a series of unseasonable conditions that have plagued the country this summer. In a tragic turn of events, a Romanian tourist was claimed by the sea on Lefkada island, and a canyoning instructor was found dead in a gorge on Mount Olympus, marking a deadly day amidst the extreme weather. Adverse rainfall has been affecting areas of Thessaloniki as far as Moudania in Chalkidiki since the early morning hours, leading to power cuts. The areas of Polichni, Toumba, and Diavata were also heavily affected. The Hellenic Fire Service reported receiving over 300 emergency calls from regions in Northern Greece by 08:00 LT, following the onset of the extreme rainfall. At least 25 water pumping operations had been conducted by then, and three people had been taken to safety. As the day progressed, emergency calls climbed to a total of 520. Several citizens found themselves stranded in their vehicles. Amid the turmoil, the Fire Service managed to safely transport forty kidney patients to and from a hemodialysis center situated on a flooded street. Residents and local officials took to social media and Greek TV to express their frustration about delayed flood protection works, as local municipality services were called to remove debris from the streets. In the face of widespread devastation, the Mayor of Kastoria, Giannis Korentzidis, has requested that a state of emergency be declared in his municipality, which has suffered substantial damage. In addition to causing widespread destruction in the city of Kastoria, the floods have also severely affected agricultural crops, with a risk of losing this year’s production. The local community of Kleisoura has also suffered from landslides. The same weather system affected Serbia where 1 300 rescuers and 22 boats were deployed to evacuate people. As of Friday morning, June 16, 55 people have been evacuated in the country, which introduced emergency measures in 42 cities and districts, Deputy Minister of Interior Luka Causic said. Homes and workplaces were flooded after several rivers overflowed, causing road closures and congested traffic, according to Causic.

Tropical Storm Bret forms in Atlantic, could become a hurricane -- Tropical Storm Bret formed in the Atlantic Ocean on Monday and is forecast to strengthen into a hurricane, presenting a threat to parts of the Caribbean by Thursday.The National Hurricane Center (NHC) in Miami said in an update that Bret is set to “move across the Lesser Antilles as a hurricane on Thursday and Friday, bringing a risk of flooding from heavy rainfall, hurricane-force winds, and dangerous storm surge and waves.”As of Monday evening, Bret had maximum sustained wind speeds of around 40 mph and was expected to strengthen. The tropical storm was moving west at 21 mph, putting it on track to reach the Lesser Antilles later this week.“Strengthening is forecast, and Bret could become a hurricane in a couple of days,” reads anNHC public advisory.The NHC said it’s too early to tell exactly where the hazards could hit or how strong Bret could become, citing a “larger than usual uncertainty in the track forecast,” but it warned that everyone in the Lesser Antilles, Puerto Rico, and the Virgin Islands should “closely monitor updates to the forecast for Bret and have their hurricane plan in place.”

St. Lucia, Martinique shut schools as Storm Bret churns closer (Reuters) -The Caribbean islands of St. Lucia and Martinique will shut down schools and nurseries tomorrow ahead of the arrival of one of the season's first tropical storms, officials said on Wednesday. The storm is forecast to move across the area late on Thursday. "After 21 days into the hurricane season an unusually early tropical system has emerged over the Atlantic as Tropical Storm Bret," St. Lucia Prime Minister Philip Pierre said on Wednesday. Pierre said all schools and nurseries would close on Thursday, as well as businesses and government offices from 1 p.m. The country's two airports will also shut from 10.30 a.m., he added, in line with advice from aviation authorities. In the neighboring French territory of Martinique, authorities announced that schools and nurseries would also shut on Thursday, but businesses could remain open. Officials also canceled planned outdoor public events. The U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC) has placed both eastern Caribbean islands under a tropical storm warning, and Barbados, Dominica and St. Vincent and the Grenadines under its watch area. "Bret is forecast to approach the Lesser Antilles through Thursday and then move across those islands late Thursday and Thursday night as a strong tropical storm," according to the NHC. The Miami-based center predicted the storm will likely maintain its current intensity before weakening after it crosses the island chain. The storm packed maximum sustained winds of 100km per hour (62 mph). Risks include flooding from heavy rains, strong winds and dangerous waves along the coast, the NHC warned, noting it is still to early to specify exact locations and the magnitude of the potential dangers.

First on record: Two simultaneous June tropical storms — Cindy and Bret — active in Atlantic basin - Tropical Storm “Cindy” formed at 03:00 UTC on June 23, 2023, east of the Lesser Antilles, marking the first time on record that two simultaneous tropical storms (another one being Bret) were active in the Atlantic basin during the month of June. At 09:00 UTC on June 24, the center of Tropical Storm “Cindy” was located about 1 090 km (675 miles) E of the Lesser Antilles. The storm had maximum sustained winds of 95 km/h (60 mph) and a minimum central pressure of 1 001 hPa. Cindy was moving WNW at 24 km/h (15 mph) and this general motion is expected to continue over the next few days. On the forecast track, Cindy is expected to remain well east and northeast of the northern Leeward Islands through early next week, gradually weakening. Tropical-storm-force winds are extending 95 km (60 miles) from the center of the storm. There are currently no hazards affecting land.

]Global average sea and air temperatures are spiking in 2023, before El Niño has fully arrived - Recent spikes in ocean heat content and average global air temperature have left climate scientists across the world scrambling to find the cause. The global average air temperature, relative to 1850-1900, exceeded the 1.5℃ lower Paris Agreement threshold during part of March and the first days of June. This last happened in 2020, and before that during the powerful 2015-16 El Niño.What makes these most recenttemperature spikes so alarming is that they've occurred before a forecast El Niño event in the Pacific, rather thanduring one. It is now clear that Earth's climatesystem is way out of kilter and we should be very concerned.We already know El Niño events are associated with above-average global temperatures. Given the impending El Niño, we all need to take extra notice of what lies ahead for the next few years. This is especially so as this forecast warming event will follow the recent rare triple La Niña event that usually brings cooler average global temperatures, meaning the trajectory of this year's uptick in average temperatures is likely to be even steeper.The Earth Energy Imbalance—the difference between the amount of energy arriving from the Sun and the amount returning to space—is now running at an all-time high. This is the most crucial measure of the prospects for continued global heating and human-driven climate change.This metric will also be vital for monitoring our overall success in meeting the Paris Agreement's targets, which call for humanity to hold average warming ideally to 1.5℃ above the pre-industrial average, or at least to as much under 2℃ as possible.

Q&A: El Niño and its high temps are back in an already hot world—what does it mean? - El Niño has returned. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration made the declaration June 8 and that means the natural, cyclical warming pattern has returned to the Pacific Ocean, bringing with it a cascade of weather events including more predicted rain in the southern United States, higher temperatures around the globe, and even the giant wildfires in Canada that came early this spring. El Niño and its higher temperatures also arrive at a pivotal time as the past eight years are the hottest on record, according to the World Meteorological Organization. Deborah Lawrence is a University of Virginia professor of environmental science and a climate change expert who has been featured in UVA Today regularly over the years. In past years, she's struck a cautiously optimistic tone. But when we reached out to talk about El Niño, her tone had markedly changed. What do you expect El Niño's effects are going to be around the globe? This time, it's actually terrifying to me—for the first time. I think of independent disasters around the globe. The place that I love most is the forest of Indonesia, the rainforests and the peat forests, and they burn every time we have an El Niño. They are wet, wet forests that are not supposed to burn, and yet they burn like crazy when we have an El Niño. There could be some good news in places, but good news in a warming climate never is good news, like more moisture in the South and in the Southwest. You'd think that might be great for the U.S., but it could mean terrible floods. It could be awful. I worry about fires in Asia. We're already seeing fires here in North America, but the biggest thing I'm worried about is that we're going to just see excruciating heat. I saw a report that said in the next five years, perhaps sooner, during this El Niño, we're going to surpass 1.5 degrees [an average annual temperatures]. And that just makes my heart sink because we're at 1.1 degrees warmer than in 1900. We are supposed to stay below 1.5 degrees, and here we are, we're going to pass it. We were supposed to pass it in eight or 10 years. It just terrifies me to think that we're going to pass it for a minute and we're going to see what that brings. So, I'm very worried about the globe. I'm also worried about my own special places, like the rainforests of Indonesia. You said the world will pass 1.5 degrees for a minute. Does that mean that temperature rise will not be sustained? It will likely go down when the El Niño shifts back to its other phase, the La Nina. It's always hotter during an El Niño year. So, we're going to get a bump from where we already are and we don't know how big the bump will be, but it will be a very big bump. It should come back down, but not without doing a lot of damage.

Multnomah County sues fossil fuel companies for nearly $52 billion over heat dome – OPB - Multnomah County is seeking nearly $52 billion in damages and future costs for climate adaptation in a lawsuit that filed Thursday against more than a dozen fossil fuel companies to hold them accountable for the unprecedented heat dome event in 2021.Lawyers for the county are moving forward with a lawsuit against 17 oil and gas companies alleging that the burning of their fossil fuel products, which leads to greenhouse gas emissions that are warming the planet, was a substantial contributor to a heat dome event roughly two years ago. Ninety-six people died across Oregon as a result of the heat dome, with the majority living in Multnomah County. The lawsuit claims the fossil fuel companies “rapaciously sell fossil fuel products and deceptively promote them as harmless to the environment,” leading to disasters like the heat dome.Multnomah County Chair Jessica Vega Pederson speaks at a press conference June 22, 2023, announcing the county's lawsuit against fossil fuel companies in Portland, Ore., Thursday, June 22, 2023. The county is suing 17 oil and gas companies, alleging the burning of their products contributed to a deadly heat wave in 2021.During Thursday’s board meeting, commissioners voted unanimously to declare climate change a public nuisance, clearing the way for the attorneys to file a lawsuit against the fossil fuel companies. Those include Shell, Chevron, BP and ExxonMobil — the United States’ largest oil and gas producing company, which predicted global warming as early as 1977 and also knew the dangers of burning fossil fuels, according to a 2016 Pulitzer finalist investigation by Inside Climate News.Multnomah County chair Jessica Vega Pederson said the lawsuit is about accountability and fairness, something she said residents of the county deserve.“These businesses knew their products were unsafe and harmful, and they lied about it,” Vega Pederson said in a written statement. “They have profited massively from their lies and left the rest of us to suffer the consequences and pay for the damages.”

Ecological 'doom loops' edging closer, study warns - Extreme weather events such as wildfires and droughts will accelerate change in stressed systems leading to quicker tipping points of ecological decline, according to a new study.Using computer modeling, the U.K. research team, which includes scientists from the University of Sheffield, looked at four ecosystems under threat to work out what factors might lead to tipping points, beyond which collapse was inevitable. In some systems, the combination of adding new extreme events on top of other ongoing stresses brought the timing of a predicted tipping point closer to the present by as much as 80%.Ultimately, say the authors, a "perfect storm" of continuous stress from factors such as unsustainable land use, agricultural expansion and climate change, when coupled with disruptive episodes like floods and fires, will act in concert to rapidly imperil natural systems.The team looked at two lake ecosystems and two forestry examples, including the historic collapse of the Easter Island (Rapa Nui) civilization, widely thought to have been the result of over-population combined with unsustainable exploitation of tree cover.The models were run over 70,000 times for each ecosystem, with variables adjusted on each occasion. Up to 15% of collapses occurred as a result of new stresses or extreme events, even while the main stress was kept constant. In other words, even if ecosystems are managed more sustainably by keeping the main stress levels like deforestation constant, new stresses like global warming and extreme weather events could still bring forward a collapse.

Himalayan glaciers on track to lose up to 75% of ice by 2100 – report (Reuters) -Glaciers in Asia’s Hindu Kush Himalaya could lose up to 75% of their volume by century’s end due to global warming, causing both dangerous flooding and water shortages for the 240 million people who live in the mountainous region, according to a new report. A team of international scientists has found that ice loss in the region, home to the famous peaks of Everest and K2, is speeding up. During the 2010s, the glaciers shed ice as much as 65% faster than they had in the preceding decade, according to the assessment by the Kathmandu-based International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD), an intergovernmental scientific authority on the region. “We’re losing the glaciers, and we’re losing them in 100 years’ time,” The Hindu Kush Himalaya stretches 3,500 km (2,175 miles) across Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, China, India, Myanmar, Nepal and Pakistan. At 1.5 degrees Celsius or 2C of warming above preindustrial temperatures, glaciers across the entire region will lose 30% to 50% of their volume by 2100, the report said. But where glaciers will melt most depends on location. At 3C of warming — what the world is roughly on track for under current climate policies — glaciers in the Eastern Himalaya, which includes Nepal and Bhutan, will lose up to 75% of their ice. At 4C of warming, that ticks up to 80%. Scientists have struggled to assess how climate change is affecting the Hindu Kush Himalaya. Unlike the European Alps and North America’s Rocky Mountains, the region lacks a long historical record of field measurements that reveal whether glaciers are growing or shrinking. In 2019, the United States declassified spy satellite images of the region’s glaciers dating back to 1970, providing a new scientific baseline. Further advances in satellite technology in the past five years, alongside bolstered field efforts, have buoyed scientists’ understanding of the changes underway. The report draws on data running through December 2022. “While the knowledge of the Himalayan glaciers is still not as good as the Alps, it’s now comparable to other regions like the Andes,”

Disappearing Himalayan snow and ice will impact food production in one of the world's major rice bowls, says report A major new assessment report from an eight-nation body, the International Center for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD), to which WUR contributed, reveals the changes to the glaciers, snow and permafrost of the Hindu Kush Himalayan region driven by global warming are "unprecedented and largely irreversible." The study, "Water, Ice, Society, and Ecosystems in the Hindu Kush Himalaya (HI-WISE)," draws on recent scientific advances to map the links between the cryosphere, water, biodiversity and society in the region for the first time, charting the impacts of rapid changes in glaciers and snow on people and nature. The report finds that glaciers in the region could lose up to 80% of their current volume by the end of the century, on current emissions trajectories. Snow cover is projected to fall by up to a quarter under high emissions scenarios—drastically reducing freshwater for major rivers such as the Amu Darya, where it contributes up to 74% of river flow, the Indus (40%) and Helmand (77%). The extent of frozen ground (permafrost) is decreasing, which will lead to more landslides and problems for infrastructure at high elevation. The Hindu Kush Himalaya holds immense significance for millions of people who rely on the meltwater from its glaciers and snowpacks. The rapid melting of its glaciers is affecting farmers in downstream regions who use river water to irrigate their crops, says Hester Biemans, researcher Water and Food at Wageningen University & Research and contributor to the study. She investigates these interactions between melting glaciers and downstream food production, emphasizing the importance of quantifying the impact on the people who actually depend on meltwater.

Current level of rainfall recharging groundwater in southwest Australia at its lowest for the last 800 years: Study -In a world-first study, Australian environmental scientists have used cave stalagmites as a record of groundwater replenishment over time, that showed the current level of rainfall recharging groundwater in southwest WA is at its lowest for at least the last 800 years. The evidence indicated that there has been a decline in rainfall recharge to groundwater in southwest Australia over the last 20 years due to reduced rainfall. This scientific development was achieved by using stalagmites and ceiling dripwater from caves that are located between the land surface and the groundwater table. The research has been published in Communications Earth & Environment. Water that filters through the cave from the surface towards the groundwater can form cave stalagmites. These stalagmites can be used to obtain records of past groundwater replenishment (technically known as recharge) using the oxygen isotopic composition (δ18O). The stalagmites collected in this study indicated that rainfall recharge to groundwater has declined in response to the rainfall reduction.

We've pumped so much groundwater that we've nudged the Earth's spin, says new study - By pumping water out of the ground and moving it elsewhere, humans have shifted such a large mass of water that the Earth tilted nearly 80 centimeters (31.5 inches) east between 1993 and 2010 alone, according to a new study published in Geophysical Research Letters.Based on climate models, scientists previously estimated humans pumped 2,150 gigatons of groundwater, equivalent to more than 6 millimeters (0.24 inches) of sea level rise, from 1993 to 2010. But validating that estimate is difficult.One approach lies with the Earth's rotational pole, which is the point around which the planet rotates. It moves during a process called polar motion, which is when the position of the Earth's rotational pole varies relative to the crust. The distribution of water on the planet affects how mass is distributed. Like adding a tiny bit of weight to a spinning top, the Earth spins a little differently as water is moved around."Earth's rotational pole actually changes a lot," said Ki-Weon Seo, a geophysicist at Seoul National University who led the study. "Our study shows that among climate-related causes, the redistribution of groundwater actually has the largest impact on the drift of the rotational pole."Water's ability to change the Earth's rotation was discovered in 2016, and until now, the specific contribution of groundwater to these rotational changes was unexplored. In the new study, researchers modeled the observed changes in the drift of Earth's rotational pole and the movement of water—first, with only ice sheets and glaciers considered, and then adding in different scenarios of groundwater redistribution.The model only matched the observed polar drift once the researchers included 2150 gigatons of groundwater redistribution. Without it, the model was off by 78.5 centimeters (31 inches), or 4.3 centimeters (1.7 inches) of drift per year."I'm very glad to find the unexplained cause of the rotation pole drift," Seo said. "On the other hand, as a resident of Earth and a father, I'm concerned and surprised to see that pumping groundwater is another source of sea-level rise."

Effect of volcanic eruptions significantly underestimated in climate projections, study shows -Researchers have found that the cooling effect that volcanic eruptions have on Earth's surface temperature is likely underestimated by a factor of two, and potentially as much as a factor of four, in standard climate projections. While this effect is far from enough to offset the effects of global temperature rise caused by human activity, the researchers, led by the University of Cambridge, say that small-magnitude eruptions are responsible for as much as half of all the sulfur gases emitted into the upper atmosphere by volcanoes. The results, reported in the journal Geophysical Research Letters, suggest that improving the representation of volcanic eruptions of all magnitudes will in turn make climate projections more robust. Where and when a volcano erupts is not something that humans can control, but volcanoes do play an important role in the global climate system. When volcanoes erupt, they can spew sulfur gases into the upper atmosphere, which forms tiny particles called aerosols that reflect sunlight back into space. For very large eruptions, such as Mount Pinatubo in 1991, the volume of volcanic aerosols is so large that it single-handedly causes global temperatures to drop. However, these large eruptions only happen a handful of times per century—most small-magnitude eruptions happen every year or two. "Compared with the greenhouse gases emitted by human activity, the effect that volcanoes have on the global climate is relatively minor, but it's important that we include them in climate models, in order to accurately assess temperature changes in future,"

Asteroid 2023 MW2 flew past Earth at 0.3 LD - A newly-discovered asteroid designated 2023 MW2 flew past Earth at a distance of 0.322 LD / 0.00083 AU (123 724 km / 76 878 miles) from the center of our planet at 07:16 UTC on June 23, 2023. This is the 45th known asteroid to fly past Earth within 1 lunar distance since the start of the year and the 10th so far this month. This asteroid is closely followed by 2023 ML3 (distance 0.6 LD) and 2023 MU2 (distance 0.5 LD) on June 24 and 25, respectively. 2023 MW2 was first observed at Mt. Lemmon Survey, Arizona on June 22, one day before it made its close approach to Earth. The object belongs to the Apollo group of asteroids and has an estimated diameter between 2.7 and 6.1 m (8.8 – 20 feet).

Major X1.1 solar flare erupts from Region 3341, CME produced - A major solar flare measuring X1.1 erupted from Active Region 3341 at 17:09 UTC on June 20, 2023. The event started at 16:42 and ended at 17:26 UTC. A Type II radio emission with an estimated velocity of 1 027 km/s was registered at 17:01 UTC. Type II emissions occur in association with eruptions on the Sun and typically indicate a coronal mass ejection (CME) is associated with a flare event. A Type IV radio emission was also associated with the event, suggesting a strong CME and solar radiation storm, as well as a 10cm Radio Burst lasting 16 minutes with a peak flux of 480 sfu. A 10cm radio burst indicates that the electromagnetic burst associated with a solar flare at the 10cm wavelength was double or greater than the initial 10cm radio background. This can be indicative of significant radio noise in association with a solar flare. This noise is generally short-lived but can cause interference for sensitive receivers including radar, GPS, and satellite communications. Radio frequencies were forecast to be most degraded over North America, Central America, and parts of South America at the time of the flare. The location of this region currently doesn’t favor Earth-directed CMEs.

Betelgeuse: star is continuing to behave mysteriously – here’s what would happen if it exploded -- The bright, red star Betelgeuse in the constellation Orion has shown some unexpected behaviour. In late 2019 and 2020 it became fainter than we had ever seen it – at least in records going back more than a century. Briefly it became fainter (just about) than Bellatrix, the third brightest star of Orion. This event became known as the "great dimming". But Betelgeuse has since become bright again. For a few days this year, it was the brightest star in Orion – brighter than we have ever seen it. Both events led to speculation about whether its demise in the form of an explosion is imminent. But is there any evidence to support this idea? And how would such an explosion affect us here on Earth? Stars are, by and large, remarkably stable. They shine with the same brightness year after year. But there are exceptions and some stars – dubbed variable stars – change in brightness. .Betelgeuse, the seventh brightest star in the sky (discounting the Sun), is the brightest of the variable stars. Sometimes Betelgeuse becomes nearly as bright as Rigel (the blue fourth brightest star in the constellation), while at other times it is notably fainter. The variation is caused by pulsations, similar to those of Mira although not as large or as regular. Sometimes, however, a star can briefly become extremely bright. The brightest and rarest among those are the supernovas, formed when an entire star ends its life in a powerful explosion. Supernovas can be bright enough to be visible during the day, although that has only happened a few times in the past 1,000 years. A nearby, bright supernova is the kind of event astronomers live for – but which few of us will ever get to see. Although Betelgeuse is a variable star, the great dimming in 2021 was extreme.Betelgeuse is about 15 to 20 times more massive than the Sun, and stars of this mass are expected to end their lives in a powerful explosion known as a supernova. Betelgeuse's red colour shows it is a red supergiant, meaning it's already approaching the end of its life.If Betelgeuse does go supernova, what would it look like? The star is around 500 light years away. Following an explosion, we first would detect a rain of massless particles called neutrinos, which would be harmless to us. After that, the star would quickly brighten. After one or two weeks it would shine with about the same brightness as the full Moon. Betelgeuse would then fade over the next several months but remain visible in the day time for six to 12 months. At night, you should be able to see it with the naked eye for another one or two years. But after that, we would never see it again – Orion would forever lose its red sparkle. Is there any danger to us? Supernovas produce high energy particles called cosmic rays, which can get past the shield of the Earth's magnetic field. But the amounts would be small compared to other radiation we receive for all but the nearest supernovas. A supernova explosion would also create radioactive iron. In fact this substance has been found in Earth's seabed and on the Moon, believed to have formed in a supernova explosion between 2 and 3 million years ago. That supernova was perhaps 300 light years from us, closer than Betelgeuse, but far enough to cause no major problems for life on Earth. A very close supernova, closer than 30 light years, could cause major problems: the cosmic rays could cause ozone destruction and dangerous UV levels on Earth. It could reduce ozone by half over a period lasting hundred to thousands of years: this level is considered capable of causing an extinction event. But such a close supernova would be very rare, and may happen only once per billion years.

States shrug off warnings, plow ahead with anti-ESG laws - Republicans aren’t done attacking ESG investing. Far from it. Sixteen states — all led by GOP-controlled legislatures, and some with Democratic governors — passed laws this year aimed at restricting the investing strategy that screens for environmental, social and governance (ESG) risks such as long-term climate impacts. That’s according to a new report by Pleiades Strategy, an environmental group. The new laws took several forms, from a measure in Kansas that would prevent public pension funds from using ESG principles, to another in Texas that prohibits insurers from doing the same. Utah alone has passed multiple ESG-related laws, one of which prohibits state and local government contracts with financial firms accused of “boycotting” industries such as fossil fuels and firearms. But even as anti-ESG efforts advanced in statehouses across the country, so too did opposition to that approach. In most cases, aggressive anti-ESG measures were either defeated or watered-down — oftentimes amid intense opposition from pension managers, banking associations and other business groups. The result is a patchwork of state laws that has helped fuel the culture war against ESG investing, increased the risk for taxpayers and retirees, and hampered efforts by the financial sector to address climate change. And with a heated 2024 presidential campaign underway, observers say they don’t see the wave of anti-ESG measures receding anytime soon. “A coordinated political effort is winning over a significant minority of states to do something that seems to be financially harmful,” said Witold Henisz, a vice dean and faculty director of the University of Pennsylvania’s ESG Initiative. And it’s happening, he said, despite a “remarkable lack of interest” from investors and shareholders. Henisz added that he expects anti-ESG efforts to remain an “active political issue” that ultimately would hurt the people in the states in which they pass. “There will be harm caused to the pensioners … harm caused to the residents of the state to realize this political objective,” Henisz said.

Rightwing war on ‘woke capitalism’ partly driven by fossil fuel interests and allies - The American right wing’s widening fight against what it calls “woke capitalism” is partly driven by fossil fuel interests or industry allies, according to a new report published on Thursday.Conservatives often use the term “woke capitalism” to refer to environmental, social and corporate governance – or ESG – criteria used to screen investments based on their environmental and social implications Just this year, Republican lawmakers in 37 states introduced a stunning 165 pieces of anti-ESG legislation, according to the new report from the strategic research and advisory firm Pleiades Strategy.“The trend has been rampant,” said Connor Gibson, who co-authored the report.The 165 proposals sought to employ a variety of tactics, ranging from imposing limits on public contracts and restricting pension managers to forcing disclosures and combatting federal investment rules.The researchers examined news articles, fiscal notes and statehouse testimony related to each bill. They found that the majority of them bear strong resemblances to model bills crafted or circulated by four influential rightwing thinktanks: the American Legislative Exchange Council, the Heritage Foundation, the Heartland Institute and the Foundation for Government Accountability.Each of the four organizations is affiliated with the far-right thinktank coalitionState Policy Network, whose members have also fought to pass punitive anti-pipeline protest laws and which has received funding from groups linked to fossil fuel billionaires Charles and the late David Koch.Advocacy for many of the bills was also led by fossil fuel-tied groups, including the Texas Public Policy Foundation (TPPF), which has accepted at least $8.8m from organizations linked to the Kochs since 2012, and has also received funding from ExxonMobil, ConocoPhillips and Chevron. The TPPF began attacking ESG as far back as 2020 and says it was behind a pioneering anti-ESG bill passed in Texas in 2021.The American Petroleum Institute, the nation’s largest oil and gas lobbying organization, has also worked to shape anti-ESG policies. And representatives from several other fossil fuel interest groups have supported the efforts as well, the researchers say.Despite their well-connected champions, just 22 of the 165 proposed anti-ESG bills progressed through statehouses, the report says.“The dark-money-funded attacks on the freedom to invest responsibly hit deep opposition from business, labor and environmental advocates in statehouses across the country this year,” said Frances Sawyer, founder of Pleiades Strategy and co-author of the report. “Our report shows that the effort to weaponize government funds, contracts and pensions to prevent companies and investors from considering real financial risks is not a winning platform.”Many of the bills that did pass were watered down before they became law, the report says. But that doesn’t mean they won’t have real negative consequences.

California Lobbyist Explains How to Skirt Climate Scrutiny in State Legislature -“We don’t want the environmentalists to see what we’re really up to.” That is what Theo Pahos, a managing partner for a firm whose clients include Calpine Corp. and the California Independent Petroleum Association, told Capital & Main in an unusually frank phone interview. Pahos was talking about plans by lobbyists to change a bill meant to regulate the industry’s handling of carbon dioxide, a potent greenhouse gas, in a way that would mislead lawmakers and environmentalists.“To be blunt,” he added, “we are misadvertising what the bill does, what our intention is.”SB 438 purports to clarify the state’s rules governing carbon dioxide (CO2) capture and storage, which prohibit companies from injecting fluid-gaseous CO2 into the ground in order to produce more oil. The bill says companies will not be penalized for inadvertently pulling up oil while burying CO2. But this is a red herring, Pahos said. He said he and other lobbyists intend to push for changing the bill later in the legislative session, so that it instead speeds up approvals for CO2 pipelines by handing greater authority to state regulators who are under pressure to meet emissions reductions goals within the decade.Yet that could undermine a key compromise in California’s current carbon capture law while exposing communities to little-understood hazards from CO2 pipeline leaks, warn environmental and climate groups. In one recent event, a CO2 pipeline rupture sent dozens to the hospital in rural Mississippi. Companies have known for many years how to capture CO2 from industrial processes to prevent its release into the atmosphere, but governments are now offering generous incentives to scale up the practice as the climate crisis has intensified. The bill’s author, Sen. Anna Caballero (D-Merced), was unaware of Pahos’ plan, according to her chief of staff, Luis Quinonez.Caballero “does not respond kindly to this kind of heavy-handed pressure,” Quinonez said.

Meet the Texas commissioners who could stymie Biden’s climate agenda - Christi Craddick earns tens of thousands of dollars from oil company stocks, has taken industry-paid flights and threw a campaign event hosted by one of Texas’ biggest petroleum producers. She’s also the state’s top oil and gas regulator, heading an agency that could pose a huge roadblock to one of President Joe Biden’s key climate policies. As chair of the elected Texas Railroad Commission, Craddick oversees fossil fuel companies that provide a large chunk of the United States’ greenhouse gas pollution, including the potent gas methane. The agency’s three Republican commissioners oppose a Biden administration push to tighten oversight of methane releases, a rule that Craddick has called an “attack on the industry that provides so much to our state.” The commissioners — Craddick, Wayne Christian and James Wright — are financially enmeshed with the same industry, with connections that include campaign contributions, business income and ownership of company stock, according to state disclosure records reviewed by POLITICO. The Biden administration’s ability to work with — or around — this agency will have a large bearing on the president’s hopes of slashing U.S. methane emissions in half by 2030. Scientists blame methane for one-third of the Earth’s temperature rise since the start of the industrial revolution, and Texas’ oil companies lead the industry in releasing the gas by venting or burning it. The commission plays a pivotal role by approving the companies’ methane releases — something its critics say it does all too readily. “All the Biden’s administration’s plans on methane run through the Railroad Commission,” said Chrysta Castañeda, a Dallas-based energy lawyer who ran an unsuccessful campaign as a Democrat to join the commission in 2020. One member of a White House climate task force echoed that sentiment, saying the commission has been on the radar of aides drawing up Biden’s climate policies. The Railroad Commission “is pretty important to Biden’s plans on methane,” said Virginia Palacios, who also heads Commission Shift, a nonprofit that advocates for changes to the Texas agency and compiled an earlier review of Craddick’s finances. “Texas produces more greenhouse gas emissions than any other state and we produce more oil and gas than any other state,” Palacios said in an interview. “Being able to reduce methane emissions in the Texas oil and gas sector is a critical part of the climate movement. It has to happen.”

Putin turns on the pandas! Russia bans WWF amid civil society crackdown – Moscow has barred the world’s largest wildlife conservation organization from operating in Russia over claims it is working to undermine the economy as it steps up its campaign against civil society organizations.In a statement issued Wednesday, the prosecutor general’s office declared the World Wildlife Fund (WWF) to be “undesirable on the territory of the Russian Federation.”The decision bars the nature protection NGO from working in the country under the terms of a 2015 law used to shut down dozens of groups since the start of Russia’s war in Ukraine.According to Russian officials, “WWF’s initiatives are aimed at large enterprises engaged in the energy, oil and gas industries, as well as those involved in the development of mineral deposits and precious metals.”The ruling reads: “WWF is carrying out activities to prevent industrial development of the Arctic and harnessing of natural resources in the Arctic territories,” alleging the organization could be part of a plot to help the U.S. take control of Russia’s territorial waters in the far north. No evidence was provided for the assertions.As an environmental pressure group, the Swiss NGO has warned about the risk of Russia’s plans to dramatically increase shipping through the thawing waters of the Arctic, which experts say could do lasting damage to whale populations.Moscow earlier this year branded Greenpeace and Norwegian environmental group Bellona “undesirable,” leaving the WWF as one of the few international organizations left working in the country.Human Rights Watch has described the use of legislation to target civil society groups as “insidious,” warning prosecutors can “ban any foreign or international group by claiming they undermine Russia’s security” with little to no due process.

Inside Manchin's war with Biden on electric vehicles - Sen. Joe Manchin has been at war with the administration for months over its implementation of last year’s landmark climate law. He is even accusing President Joe Biden of breaking a promise to him. “They’re going to try to screw me,” the West Virginia Democrat said earlier this year of White House officials. But nearly two dozen congressional aides, members of Congress, administration officials and lobbyists are questioning Manchin’s full account of the negotiations and wondering how one of the Inflation Reduction Act’s authors came to be so bent on attacking his own law — along with his own party. The dispute is coloring the administration’s relationship with a pivotal lawmaker who often decides the fate of bills and nominees. Manchin is also in the midst of deciding his own political future, which could include a run for reelection in a red state or a third-party bid for president. Senior Manchin aides insist the senator’s posture is based entirely on Biden himself promising to implement Inflation Reduction Act provisions on electric vehicle incentives and sourcing requirements to Manchin’s exact specifications, which are focused on domestic manufacturing and mining rather than pursing a dramatic increase in EV sales. “The president gave Manchin his word,” one top aide said, adding that congressional Democratic leaders gave the same verbal agreement. Manchin, in a brief interview Thursday, reiterated his argument to the president: “Just stay within the confines of the bill. Don’t try to implement a bill you didn’t pass.” But White House spokesperson Michael Kikukawa disputed claims of a broken promise and administration freelancing: “The president committed to implementing the law as written, and that is what the administration is doing.” In interviews with people who were all, in some way, involved in crafting the Inflation Reduction Act, a clearer picture has emerged of the unusual two-week sprint to complete the massive bill and get it to the president’s desk. They were granted anonymity to speak candidly. A handful of staffers hammered out the final pieces of the Inflation Reduction Act over a 13-day period last summer. White House aides were not there. But because Senate Democrats used the arcane process of budget reconciliation to secure the bill’s passage without Republican votes, the text left the administration with broad powers to interpret provisions on climate and other issues, said people familiar with the talks. That is contributing to the current standoff over how to enforce EV tax incentives. Some people working inside the administration and on Capitol Hill contend that Manchin should have known this was a plausible outcome of negotiations. Others say Manchin, who chairs the Energy and Natural Resources Committee, could have insisted on language to protect his goals in the Inflation Reduction Act — but he didn’t. All the while, Manchin is claiming he was given a verbal promise from the highest levels of government that the bill would be implemented to his specific wishes. Yet in interviews with administration officials and congressional aides, no one would confirm the assertion.

Our Systems Reward Dysfunction And Destruction: Notes From The Edge Of The Narrative Matrix – Caitlin Johnstone --Our civilization is sick because all its systems ensure that human behavior is driven by profit, and health isn’t profitable. Nobody gets rich from everyone staying healthy all the time. The gears of capitalism will still keep turning if its populace is made shallow and dull by bad education and crappy art made for profit. Billionaires aren’t made by leaving forests and oceans unmolested, consuming less, mining less, drilling less, using less energy. The economy doesn’t soar when the world is at peace and nations are working together in harmony.If you programmed an advanced AI to arrange human behavior solely around extracting the maximum amount of profit possible using existing technologies, its world wouldn’t look a whole lot different from the real one. We’re being guided by unthinking, unfeeling systems that don’t care about the good of our minds, our hearts, our health, or our biosphere, which will sacrifice all of the above to accomplish the one goal we’ve set them to accomplish.It’s just a dogshit way to run a civilization. It doesn’t work. It’s left us with a dying world full of crazy morons hurtling toward nuclear armageddon on multiple fronts. Our systems have failed as spectacularly as anything can fail.It’s simple really: we settled for capitalism as the status quo system because it’s an efficient way to churn out a lot of stuff and create a lot of wealth, but now we’re churning out too much stuff too quickly and society is enslaved by the wealthy. So now new systems are needed.

Minneapolis bans new heavy-polluting industries, limits existing facilities —Minneapolis will ban many types of new high-polluting industrial facilities from opening in the city and prohibit the expansion of existing ones, which mostly operate in neighborhoods with large communities of color. The ban, which was unanimously passed Thursday by the Minneapolis City Council as part of a zoning code revision, will enforce a citywide prohibition on new scrap metal industries, chemical manufacturers, commercial laundries, combustion powered energy facilities, and foundries. Existing facilities such as the Hennepin Energy Recovery Center (HERC) located downtown and Smith Foundry on the south side are grandfathered in, but will be unable to expand operations that contribute to pollution. Thursday’s ordinance is part of the process of formally adopting changes to the city zoning code approved in the 2040 Comprehensive Plan, originally passed in 2018. Minneapolis nonprofit Community Members for Environmental Justice cheered the move as a step in the right direction, while group co-founder Roxxanne O’Brien said in a statement that it was long overdue. “Our community’s natural capital has historically been damaged and exploited by century-old racist land policies and processes,” O’Brien said. “We have waited far too long for this moment in history where government finally puts a halt on the expansion of sacrifice zones in poor, Indigenous and Black and Brown neighborhoods.” Neighborhoods that have heavy-polluting industries are home to disproportionate shares of residents of color, data show. That connection is tied directly to zoning and the historical practice of redlining that prevented minority families from buying homes in pristine areas in Minneapolis and other cities nationwide. The neighborhoods where those groups could buy homes were the same neighborhoods where governments allowed polluting industries to operate.

Environment groups ask Biden to crack down on methane emissions from landfills -- More than a dozen environmental groups are asking the Biden administration to crack down on methane emissions from landfills. Methane is a planet-warming gas that is 28 times more potent than carbon dioxide over a 100-year period and comprises nearly 12 percent of the country’s contribution to climate change. Landfills are the third-largest source of methane in the U.S. The groups, in the petition they are filing Thursday, say the rules the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) currently has in place do not go far enough to control these emissions. The petition argues the current standards do not reflect the best ways to cut emissions. It says implementing two additional practices, upgrading technology that’s used to burn off landfill gas and expanding systems that capture the gas for burning off or other uses can save about 466,000 metric tons of methane per year. Judge suspends Wyoming’s ban on abortion pills amid lawsuit Health care professionals talk continued impact of COVID on highlighted system shortcomings The petition says the agency should take additional actions including lowering the threshold for which landfills have to install pollution controls and improve monitoring. “We’re asking EPA to look at its regulations and to revise them,” said Leah Kelly, senior attorney at the Environmental Integrity Project. “We think they very clearly do not meet the legal standard required … the fact that states are issuing stronger regulations clearly demonstrates the fact that more can be done.”

California Attorney General Renews Call for Bureau of Land Management (BLM) to Consider the Significant Social and Environmental Impacts of Federal Coal Leasing Program — California Attorney General Rob Bonta last week led a multistate coalition in submitting a comment letter to the Bureau of Land Management (BLM), urging it to consider the full social and environmental costs of the federal coal leasing program. An agency within the U.S. Department of Interior, BLM manages coal resources on public lands across 11 states and leases the right to produce those coal resources to private entities. That coal is transported for both domestic and foreign consumption, with millions of tons of coal being transported each year through California. At present, due to litigation brought by the California Attorney General’s office — along with the attorneys general of Washington, New York, and New Mexico, as well as various environmental organizations — a moratorium is in place on new coal leases. On May 1, 2023, BLM asked for public comment that will help inform its forthcoming environmental impact statement under the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) about whether, and to what extent, to resume the program and issue new leases. Today’s comment letter responds to that request. “The last comprehensive environmental review of the federal coal leasing program was completed in 1979, over four decades ago. Renewed consideration of the actual costs and benefits of the program is long overdue,” said Attorney General Bonta. “In 1979, the impacts of climate change were not fully understood. Today, we know that the increase in wildfires, heat waves, and other natural disasters is not a random occurrence, but the direct result of climate change. In addition, millions of tons of coal are transported in open rail cars to ports in Los Angeles, Long Beach, Stockton, and Richmond — areas that are home to communities already disproportionately burdened by environmental pollution. The federal coal leasing program’s significant contributions to these climate and environmental justice issues must be closely scrutinized by BLM before coal leasing can be resumed.” In 2016, the Obama Administration decided to place a moratorium on new coal leases while it initiated a comprehensive environmental review of the program. However, the Trump Administration ceased the Obama Administration’s review and resumed issuing new leases. In response, as mentioned above, the California-led coalition filed a lawsuit in federal district court in Montana, alleging that BLM’s decision to restart the federal coal leasing program without any environmental review violated NEPA. The court agreed and reinstated the moratorium on new leases. In 2021, Interior Secretary Deb Haaland separately initiated a programmatic review of the coal leasing program that remains pending. Attorney General Bonta also submitted public comment on that review. In their comment letter, the California-led coalition again urges BLM to fully consider all direct, indirect, and cumulative impacts of issuing new coal leases under the program, including:

At long last, most of the nation's toxic coal ash dumps will be regulated - Betty Johnson calls the day 15 years ago when her husband, Tommy, a heavy machinery operator, rushed to Tennessee’s Kingston Fossil Plant “a tragedy we’ll never forget.” More than 1 billion gallons of coal ash slurry — the toxic waste left over from burning coal to generate electricity — had punched through the wall of an unlined, six-story pit about the size of Nashville’s Centennial Park. Tommy Johnson was among scores of first responders to what remains the nation’s largest industrial disaster. The slurry crashed across the Emory River like a mudslide, shattering trees, pushing homes off of their foundations, and eventually swallowing more than 300 acres as it polluted two major waterways. The 2008 spill, with a volume five times greater than the Deepwater Horizon catastrophe, alerted people to the dangers of coal ash and forced the Tennessee Valley Authority, or TVA, which owned and operated the site, and other utilities to confront the environmental and health impacts of half a century of waste buildup. The calamity destroyed scores of homes in the tiny East Tennessee community of Swan Pond, roughly 30 minutes west of Knoxville. But for families like the Johnsons, the real tragedy came when the workers who cleaned up the mess got sick. “When my husband went to work there, he was a 300-pound, very healthy, very active man,” Johnson recalled. After the spill, Tommy developed chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, low kidney function requiring dialysis, and skin lesions. He also suffered weekly fainting spells. “His body is weak, he gets tired. He can’t even drive a car by himself because he’ll pass out,” said Johnson, who quit her job to become full-time caretaker to a man she’s known for 38 years. “We wanted to go around the country, visit, see things, but that’s not going to happen anymore. He can’t visit his grandkids because of his illness, and it’s because of the toxic coal ash.”

New methane plant under scrutiny in Cheatham County -- There are plans in the works to build a new methane gas plant in Cheatham County. The new plant would help the Cumberland Fossil plant by phasing out one of its coal-burning units. Despite its long-term benefits, some residents are concerned about how the project will impact their land and wallet. There are neighbors that feel their electric bills will increase due to gas prices and other homeowners are at risk of losing their land. The proposed plans for the methane gas plant include a new 12-mile gas pipeline near homes in Cheatham County. The methane gas plant would be built on the 280 acres the Tennessee Valley Authority (TVA) purchased for $1.4 million in 2020. The land is located just south of Lockertsville Road, north of Ashland City. The TVA also plans to build a methane gas-burning unit on site, which would require a 32-mile pipeline stretching through Stewart, Houston, and Dickson counties. Some people fear this will negatively impact the environment. In 1992, a pipeline in Dickson County exploded, burning more than 400 acres. The TVA is set to hear from residents in Cheatham County during a meeting at the David McCullough Community Room in Ashland City.

House leadership protects scandal-ridden House Bill 6, blocking repeal effort — Ohio House leadership voted to protect a scandal-ridden law that forces ratepayers to spend millions funding “dirty” coal plants. In doing this, the Republicans likely killed the bipartisan repeal effort.House Speaker Jason Stephens (R-Kitts Hill) and his fellow GOP members on leadership voted Tuesday to recall House Bill 120. H.B. 120 would eliminate subsidies for two 1950s-era coal plants.A jury found that Householder and former GOP leader Matt Borges, beyond a reasonable doubt, participated in the largest public corruption case in state history, a racketeering scheme that left four men guilty and another dead by suicide.Householder passed a nearly $61 million scheme to pass a billion-dollar bailout, House Bill 6, at the expense of taxpayers and at the benefit of his pockets.H.B. 6 mainly benefited FirstEnergy's struggling nuclear power plants, which provisions were later repealed. There are remaining aspects of the bill still in place, though.The Ohio Valley Electric Corporation (OVEC) also got a handout from the scandal. It expanded a bailout of the OVEC plants and required Ohioans to pay for them. The main beneficiaries from this were American Electric Power Company (AEP), Duke Energy and AES Ohio. Householder and Borges will be sentenced at 1 p.m. on June 29 and 11 a.m. on June 30, respectively, according to court documents.Stephens has one of the coal plants in his district and has shown no signs of wanting to repeal the bailouts. The bill has received no hearings, despite it being introduced months ago."Ohioans are propping up these dirty, old, uncompetitive coal plants," state Rep. Casey Weinstein (D-Hudson) said.In early June, News 5 broke the news that Ohio lawmakers decided to go over the speaker’s head to move their bill.A faction of Republicans joined the Democrats to discharge the bill from the committee, meaning, with enough signatures, the legislation would move immediately to a full House vote, superseding the speaker.If all 32 Democrats vote for the repeal, which is likely, only 18 Republicans are needed.There are 22 signatures on the petition as of Tuesday evening, but News 5 was told that the rest of the Democrats and the Republicans in favor would be signing following the passage of the budget.

EOG Plans Less Drilling in TX Permian, More Drilling in OH Utica - Marcellus Drilling News -- EOG Resources CEO Lloyd “Billy” Helms spoke at the J.P. Morgan Energy, Power and Renewables Conference in New York City yesterday. Helms had some very interesting comments on his company’s strategy moving forward–a strategy of keeping drilling activity in the Permian about even (not expanding), but increasing drilling activity in other plays, including the Ohio Utica.

EOG Resources COO Helms Says On Target To Keep Well Costs Rising More Than 10% This Year; Expects To Drill Offshore Australia In 2024; Expects To Drill And Complete 15 Wells In The Utica Shale This Year And Increase Activity In 2024 - This headline only article is a sample of real-time intelligence Benzinga Protraders use to win in the markets everyday.

EOG Resources Reveals Plans for Offshore Expansion and Utica Shale Drilling - As of June 21, 2023, EOG Resources‘ COO has revealed the company’s plans to expand its drilling operations offshore Australia by 2024. This move is expected to bolster the company’s presence in the region and further strengthen its position as a leading player in the global energy market.Moreover, EOG Resources has set its sights on drilling and completing 15 wells in the Utica Shale by the end of this year, with plans to ramp up activity in 2024. This ambitious undertaking is a testament to the company’s commitment to maximizing its resources and driving growth in the industry.In keeping with its focus on efficiency and cost-effectiveness, EOG Resources is also aiming to keep well costs from increasing by more than 10% this year. This is a critical factor in ensuring the company’s profitability and sustainability in the long run. Overall, EOG Resources’ strategic vision and innovative approach to energy production make it a force to be reckoned with in the ever-evolving landscape of the global energy industry.

Encino Donating $100K to Muskingum Watershed Conservancy Foundation | Marcellus Drilling News -Encino Energy, now Ohio’s biggest oil producer, has agreed to donate $100,000 over the next five years to the Muskingum Watershed Conservancy Foundation to help fund community projects in Tuscarawas, Harrison, Carroll, and Belmont counties. The donation was announced at a press conference on Tuesday at Tappan Lake Marina in Harrison County. The Muskingum Watershed Conservancy District (MWCD) is an agency formed in 1933 to help control flooding and promote water conservation in the Muskingum River watershed area of Ohio, an area that covers 8,000 square miles. Over the years, MWCD has leased thousands of acres for Utica Shale drilling and cut deals to sell water to drillers for fracking. The result has been well over $100 million in revenue for MWCD–a true game-changer for the agency and the Ohio residents who live in that region.

Encino Energy to donate $100,000 to MWCD to fund community projects -‒ Encino Energy has agreed to donate $100,000 over the next five years to the Muskingum Watershed Conservancy Foundation to help fund community projects in Tuscarawas, Harrison, Carroll and Belmont counties. The donation was announced at a press conference Tuesday at Tappan Lake Marina in Harrison County. "We're excited about this historic partnership. We think this comprehensive approach is a model for public-private partnerships," said Hardy Murchison, CEO of Houston-based Encino Energy. Added Sheila Hurley, executive director of the Muskingum Watershed Conservancy Foundation, "The support the foundation will receive from Encino Energy will provide the opportunity to impact new and important programs, projects and activities throughout the Muskingum Watershed District." The foundation's goal is to support the mission of the Muskingum Watershed Conservancy District (MWCD) by providing financial resources that enhance facilities, programs and conservation efforts on or adjacent to district lands and waters. Recently, the organization helped fund a playground at the Tuscarawas County YMCA in Dover and the new outdoor entertainment venue at Sally Buffalo Park in Cadiz. The foundation was started in the mid-1990s and has about $2.5 million on hand. "To have this additional $100,000 over the next five years in partnership with Encino Energy to work on projects that align with both our mission and goals is just really incredible," Hurley said following the announcement. "We'll be focusing on youth development, we'll be focusing on health and safety, the environment and just a variety of different types of projects." Murchison noted he was unaware of any other public-private agreements like this in the United States. "Most of these relationships between a lessor and lessee are just purely commercial," he said. "To have the alignment of missions and to formalize that in a MOU (Memorandum of Understanding) like this is either rare or maybe unique." Encino Energy has been operating in Ohio for the past five years. In 2022, the company signed an oil and gas lease with the MWCD for Utica Shale development on nearly 7,300 acres at Tappan Lake. The conservancy district will receive about $40 million in payments from Encino over 5 years from the lease.

Punxsutawney Phil Getting a New Neighbor – Shale Injection Well | Marcellus Drilling News - In the future, when everyone’s favorite groundhog Punxsutawney Phil pokes his head out of his hole in February to tell us whether or not there are another six weeks of winter, he may be looking at shale wastewater trucks coming and going on their way to a new underground injection well just outside of town. Yesterday the federal EPA issued a permit to G2 STEM LLC based in Fairfax, Virginia, to build a Class IID oil and gas wastewater underground injection well in Young Township, Jefferson County, PA. You may know the area by its famous boro, Punxsutawney.

Washington County family takes 2 corporations to court over fracking health concerns - CBS Pittsburgh -- A Washington County family has taken two major corporations to court, claiming that fracking contaminated their wells and jeopardized their health. It's been a matter of debate: can fracking contaminate the groundwater and cause serious health impacts? The case in Washington aims to prove it can and does. Bryan Latkanich and his son Ryan arrived at court Tuesday morning flanked by supporters from the environmental community aiming at last to prove that fracking at their property had contaminated their wells, undermined their home and resulted in serious health impacts, including skin rashes Ryan says he suffered after bathing. "I've had blisters from water, my skin rashing up," Ryan said. "It's been a nightmare," Bryan said. In their sights are two large corporations -- Chevron and its subsidiary Chevron USA, which initially drilled their property, and the Pittsburgh-based EQT Corporation, which purchased the Chevron leases two years ago. Tuesday at an initial hearing, their attorney, Kathy Condo, argued again that hydraulic fracturing is not inherently dangerous and that an investigation by the Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection found no elevated chemicals and no linkage between the fracking and the Latkanich's health problems. The complaint stems back to 2011 and 2012 and since then a Pennsylvania grand jury found that DEP had failed to adequately protect citizens. The family's attorney cites new evidence about radioactivity and PFAS -- so-called forever chemicals in the frack water, which she says spilled from retainer ponds into their wells and their home. "There's no debate about the harm that fracking causes. We've proven that. It's time for the industry to tell the truth and it's time for this administration to tell the truth," said attorney Lisa Johnson. The Latkanich family hopes theirs is a test case. "Hopefully that we can become whole and get on with life again and close this chapter, and also we can protect the environment and other people going through this," Bryan said.

Secretive State Climate Talks Stir Discontent With Pennsylvania Governor -- Three weeks after he was elected governor of Pennsylvania last fall, Josh Shapiro held a press conference at the county courthouse in Montrose, Pa., to announce what he called a “historic” settlement with the oil and gas company Coterra Energy. Coterra would pay $16.29 million to build a public water line in Dimock, a small town where Coterra’s fracking operations were blamed for contaminating the water, and would plead no contest to a misdemeanor charge under the Clean Streams Law. He saluted the people of Dimock who had testified in his investigation of Coterra as “good friends.” “When big corporations are not held accountable,” he said. “then the people suffer.” Standing at his side at the courthouse was Victoria Switzer, a Dimock resident and longtime advocate for the community. Taking the microphone, she was emphatic in her praise for him. The next day, the Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection, or DEP, declared that it would lift a 12-year ban on drilling in Dimock, allowing Coterra to operate there once again. Shapiro must have known about DEP’s decision at the time of the press conference even though he was not yet governor; they see the settlement and the lifting of the ban as part of a larger deal with Coterra. “If he didn’t know about it, where’s the outrage?” For Switzer and others who have fought for years for access to clean local water, the news from DEP was a betrayal of everything Shapiro had promised them. “Had we known about that, do you think I ever would have stood there with him in a public forum in front of all these news reporters and said it was the ‘people’s lawyer’ that got this done?” Switzer said in an interview. “I am so mortified that I was paraded and made a puppet.” Six months later, it’s not just the homeowners of Dimock—still lacking safe running water—who feel the sting of those two days in November. For many environmentalists and climate campaigners in Pennsylvania, the reversal was both a turning point in their hopes for the Shapiro administration and an omen of a worrying new development: secretive state climate talks. A “climate working group” appointed by the governor is now convening privately, its members unidentified and the minutes of its meetings unreleased. The group’s existence came to light because of reporting by the Associated Press, and there appears to be no mention of the group or its agenda on the governor’s website. All of this secrecy is fueling suspicion about other deal-making and skepticism about the administration’s dedication to reducing greenhouse gas emissions.

Capstone Receives More Business from Marcellus E&P - A Capstone Green Energy Corp. subsidiary will supply a Marcellus Shale E&P microturbines that generate electricity from piped gas, according to a June 15 press release. Capstone did not name the E&P. Capstone’s distributor, E-Finity Distributed Generation, will supply 10 additional C65 microturbines to be deployed in the Marcellus after the E&P submitted a follow-on order, Capstone said. The order will be commissioned this summer. The microturbines are fueled by wellhead natural gas that has been extracted directly from the pipeline. The turbines, upon installation, will provide electrical power at a variety of wellhead sites where it is now unavailable. In addition, because the C65 microturbines will be the primary source of power for these wellhead sites, related emissions will be “ultra-low,” Capstone said in the news release. Jeff Beiter, president and CEO Capstone’s E-Finity, said the company’s returning Marcellus and Utica shale customers demonstrates the company’s proficiency and reliability in “delivering power where it is need.” “These microturbine units will significantly enhance production and facilitate the efficient extraction of clean-burning, abundant natural gas from one of the world's largest natural gas fields,” Beiter said.

21 New Shale Well Permits Issued for PA-OH-WV Jun 12-18 | Marcellus Drilling News - New shale permits issued for Jun 12-18 in the Marcellus/Utica gained one. There were 21 new permits issued, up from 20 the previous week. Last week’s permit tally included 12 new permits in Pennsylvania, 6 new permits in Ohio, and 3 new permits in West Virginia. Snyder Brothers scored the most new permits, with 9 issued in Armstrong County, PA. INR had the second most new permits, with 4 permits issued in Carroll County, OH. ANTERO RESOURCES | ARMSTRONG COUNTY | CARROLL COUNTY | CNX RESOURCES | EQT CORP | FAYETTE COUNTY | INR | MONONGALIA COUNTY| NOBLE COUNTY | SNYDER BROTHERS

Tree-sitter despondent over MVP deal — Theresa “Red” Terry never wanted shades on the windows of her white clapboard farmhouse perched on the side of 2,600-foot Bent Mountain. Such coverings, she insisted, would only mar the 360-degree view of nature’s bounty she so relished. Three years ago, however, she relented. By then, crews with chainsaws, bulldozers and other heavy equipment had already spent two years devouring broad strips of hardwood forests as a passageway to truck in and bury the hotly contested Mountain Valley Pipeline. In all, pipeline investors claimed 14 acres of Terry property via eminent domain. If completed, the mainline of the 42-inch pipe would move 2 billion cubic feet of hydraulically fractured gas daily from the shale formations in West Virginia to the Virginia-North Carolina border 303 miles away. From there, it’s likely destined for export by way of a 72-mile extension into North Carolina. Of course, the blinds Terry’s three grown children had installed in a room adjacent to the back porch couldn’t halt the carnage. But, drawn, they at least offered her a temporary shield. It was in that sheltered space where a distraught Terry, 66, huddled at a table with her neighbor Mary Beth Coffey on a rainy afternoon just a week after President Joe Biden signed into law the debt ceiling relief pact on June 3. The mood was funereal as the two friends lamented a deal that included a provision — long sought by fossil fuel booster Sen. Joe Manchin, D-West Virginia — to greenlight the completion of the Mountain Valley Pipeline by deep-sixing any and all remaining permit barriers. “I feel like we’re in grief,” said Coffey, 65, who retired early from her school speech pathology job to devote more time to confronting the pipeline, known as MVP. “We’re dealing with the death of many things on many different levels.” The Manchin measure, the friends agreed, has squelched the voices of protesters long convinced their poorer part of the state is a sacrifice zone. “We’ve been resisting this pipeline a long time,” Coffey said. “With this deal, our rights have been taken away. Who do we report MVP’s missteps to now? It’s a human injustice.” “People wonder why I’m a wreck. Well, it’s all enough to make anyone sick,” said Terry, who retired in 2021 as a forklift driver at a distribution center in nearby Salem. “MVP has taken enough. They took away my happiness, my security … and my trees.” She was especially heartbroken when the pipeline excavators uprooted a backyard orchard of roughly a dozen old apple trees and a nearby scarlet oak that she had staked out as a sapling and nurtured for 22 years. The loss of that prized oak — followed by dismissive words from an MVP spokesperson — fired up Terry, nicknamed Red as a teenager. In the spring of 2018, that fierceness guided her to yet another scarlet oak on a nearby but separate piece of Terry property adjacent to Bottom Creek. The down-to-earth, then 61-year-old Roanoke native became a local celebrity — and a global sensation — when she ate, slept and lived in a family-built, plywood tree stand for 34 straight days to draw attention to the environmental havoc MVP was wreaking in Southwest Virginia.

White House adviser Podesta says controversial pipeline was ‘inevitable’ - White House adviser John Podesta said Tuesday that the approval of the controversial Mountain Valley Pipeline (MVP) was “inevitable” — defending President Biden’s signing of legislation that advanced the pipeline. “MVP was on its way to being permitted anyway,” Podesta said Tuesday following an event announcing funds for sustainable upgrades to federal buildings. “I think MVP was inevitable.” Democrats first agreed to pass legislation approving the pipeline, a 303-mile project that would carry natural gas from West Virginia to Virginia, as part of their deal with Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) in exchange for his vote on their climate, tax and healthcare bill. Their initial attempts to pass it as part of a permitting reform package flopped last year, but efforts to legislate the pipeline’s approval were recently revived in a deal between the White House and House Republican leadership to lift the debt ceiling. The passage of the provision has rankled climate activists, who say the administration should not be bolstering additional fossil fuel infrastructure.

New England Needs More Natural Gas, Renewables Infrastructure to Avoid Shortfalls, Say Experts -Industry and government experts said to ensure New England has the energy resources available to ensure reliability in the winter, more natural gas infrastructure and transmission for renewables must be built. During the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission’s second New England Winter Gas-Electric Forum earlier this week, half of the discussions centered around the potential closure of the Everett Marine Terminal (EMT). The facility is one of only three LNG terminals that delivers liquefied natural gas supply to New England during the winter. “Most, if not the supermajority” of the region’s natural gas-fired generators rely on EMT fuel supply, said Levitan & Associates Inc. President Richard Levitan. The firm has assisted the Independent Systems Operator for New...

Oil spill in Buzzards Bay causes Coast Guard response — A mile-long oil spill in Buzzards Bay mobilized multiple fire departments Sunday morning. Reports said that the U.S. Coast Guard was joined by the Mattapoisett Fire Department, Mattapoisett Harbor Master, and Marion Harbor Master. A Coast Guard source told ABC 6 that a Air Station Cape Cod helicopter came across the sheen off of Buzzards Bay around 10:30 am Sunday and relayed the sighting to the command center. The helicopter saw the spill in the area of Cleveland Ledge and said it was approximately one mile long and 150 to 300 feet wide. The Coast Guard said the spill was “non-recoverable,” meaning it will dissipate on its own. There were no debris is the area and the cause of the spill is still unknown, and the Coast Guard said it will continue to monitor the situation. The Marion Fire Department said the spill should have no environmental impact.

Maryland files lawsuit against 2 companies over oil spill that happened in 2021 - An oil spill was reported on Dec. 7, 2021 in Frederick County, Md. Maryland is now suing the two companies responsible for more than 7,000 gallons of oil that was spilled. The Maryland Department of the Environment and the State’s Attorney General’s Office has filed a lawsuit against a trucking company, D.M. Bowman, Inc. and Day and Sons, Inc., a construction company. According to the state, the diesel oil spill happened when drilling work that was being done by Day and Sons Inc. struck underground diesel lines at the D.M. Bowman Inc. facility. The state wants to hold the companies responsible by repairing and restoring Maryland’s natural resources. “The negligence displayed by these two companies demonstrate a complete disregard for our environment and the well-being of our communities,” Maryland’s Attorney General, Anthony Brown said. “Their actions will not go unanswered.” “We expect businesses to operate responsibly, and when they don’t, MDE will hold them accountable,” Maryland Department of the Environment Secretary Serena said. The incident is still being investigated.

Lake Charles LNG Appeal Denied, Setting Stage for Legal Battle Over Export Extensions -- The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) will not reconsider its decision denying an Energy Transfer LP (ET) affiliate’s request to again extend the deadline to begin exports from the proposed Lake Charles LNG facility in Louisiana. In a 48-page order, DOE denied a request for rehearing filed in May, in which ET claimed the agency’s decision was arbitrary and capricious. The proceeding has previewed the legal arguments both sides could make in a court challenge, which could have broader implications for other U.S. liquefied natural gas projects attempting to advance. It’s not certain, though, if ET will challenge DOE’s latest decision. Spokesperson Cassidy Lamb said ET was disappointed with DOE’s order, but it plans to continue developing the project given “significant...

Texas Upstream Employment Surges as Natural Gas Takeaway Set to Expand - The Texas upstream oil and gas sector added 6,900 jobs in May versus April, bringing the job count above 200,000 for the first time in more than three years, according to the Texas Upstream Oil and Gas Association (TXOGA). The month/month growth in jobs to 206,000 was the highest sequential jump in the 33 years for which data is available, said TXOGA, citing data compiled by the Texas Workforce Commission. “Texas remains a powerhouse of production and all sectors of our economy benefit from robust activity,” said TXOGA President Todd Staples. “These numbers reported for May are the highest in decades and push upstream employment numbers above the 200,000 mark for the first time since 2020.

US natgas prices drop 5% on lower demand forecasts, less heat - (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures dropped about 5% on Tuesday on forecasts for less hot weather and demand over the next two weeks than previously expected as the amount of gas flowing to U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants declines due to maintenance outages. The price decline came despite a drop in gas output in recent weeks and even though the weather will still be hotter than normal in late June and early July, especially in Texas. The Texas power grid operator urged homes and businesses to conserve electricity on Tuesday evening to prevent power reserves from falling short as consumers crank up air conditioners to escape the first heat wave of the summer season. That will boost the amount of gas burned by power generators as Texas gets most of its power from gas. In 2022, about 49% of the state's power came from gas-fired plants, with most of the rest from wind (22%), coal (16%), nuclear (8%) and solar (4%), according to federal energy data. After rising for five days in a row, front-month gas futures for July delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 14.0 cents, or 5.3%, to settle at $2.492 per million British thermal units (mmBtu). On Friday, ahead of the Juneteenth holiday on Monday, the contract closed at its highest level since March 7. Data provider Refinitiv said average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states fell to 101.6 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in June, down from a monthly record of 102.5 bcfd in May. Meteorologists forecast the weather would turn from mostly near-normal from June 20-23 to hotter than normal from June 24-July 5. The forecasts, however, were not as hot as previously expected. The U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC) projected Tropical Storm Bret would remain a tropical storm as it moves west from the Atlantic Ocean over the next several days before dissipating in the Caribbean Sea around Saturday. The NHC projected another system in the Atlantic had an 80% chance of strengthening into a cyclone over the next five days as it moves west toward the Caribbean. With hot weather coming, Refinitiv forecast U.S. gas demand, including exports, would rise from 94.0 bcfd this week to 98.9 bcfd next week. Those forecasts were lower than Refinitiv's outlook on Friday. U.S. exports to Mexico rose to an average of 6.6 bcfd so far in June, up from 6.2 bcfd in May. That compares with a monthly record high of 6.7 bcfd in June 2021. Gas flows to the seven big U.S. LNG export plants fell to an average of 11.5 bcfd so far in June from 13.0 bcfd in May.

Natural gas prices rock steady as demand bets offset storage build - The bulls in natural gas are surviving one odd after another. Total inventories of the fuel in storage rose by 95 billion cubic feet last week, the U.S. Energy Information Administration, or EIA, reported in an update on Thursday. That was above the 88-bcf build for the week ended June 16 that was forecast by industry analysts tracked by Investing.com. The highest estimate by most analysts was 91 bcf. In the prior week to June 9, utilities injected just 84 bcf into storage after burning the gas needed to meet power and cooling needs. “This number came in much more bearish than the market was anticipating with a 95-bcf injection being on the upper end of survey range,” Gas futures initially tumbled on the larger-than-expected storage build, hitting a session low of $2.532 per mmBtu, or million metric British thermal units, versus Wednesday’s close of $2.597. By Thursday’s settlement though, front-month gas futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange’s Henry Hub settled up 1.1 cent at $2.608 per mmBtu. One possible reason for the market's comeback: Higher anticipation of cooling demand in the coming days and weeks as the U.S. summer season slowly and surely brings higher temperatures. “Power burn demand has decreased to 37.9 bcf/day today, the Gelber note said. ”As weather warms over the coming weeks, power burn is likely to increase back to previous levels and push higher.” With a near 15% gain for June, gas futures on the Henry Hub are headed for their best performance since August — the month they hit a 14-year high of $10 per mmBtu. While summer weather hasn’t hit its typical baking point across the country, cooling demand is inching up by the day, particularly in Texas. This has sparked realization in the trade that higher price lows might be more common than new bottoms.The lowest Henry Hub’s front-month got to this week was $2.448, versus the $2.136 bottom seen at the start of June. Notwithstanding the optimism of gas bulls, last week’s 95-bcf build in gas storage compared with a 76-bcf injection during the same week a year ago and a five-year (2018-2022) average increase of 86 bcf. With the latest stockpile increase, the EIA reported that total gas in underground caverns in the United States stood at 2.729 trillion cubic feet, or tcf — up 26.5% from the year-ago level of 2.158 tcf and 15.3% higher than the five-year average of 2.367 tcf.

US natgas jumps 5% on lower output, hot forecasts for Texas (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures jumped about 5% to a 16-week high on Friday on a drop in U.S. output in recent weeks and forecasts for the weather to remain hot through early July, especially in Texas. That price increase came despite forecasts for less demand next week than previously expected due in part to a decline in the amount of gas flowing to liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants and a drop in European gas prices. The Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT), the state's power grid operator, again projected electric use would break records, this time Monday-Tuesday, June 26-27. ERCOT also projected power use would reach record highs this week but demand fell short of the record after storms and storm-related power outages reduced usage and consumers heeded the grid operator's June 20th call to conserve energy. Regardless of when demand sets a new all-time high, the heat should boost the amount of gas generators burn to produce power for air conditioning since Texas gets most of its electricity from gas-fired plants. Front-month gas futures for July delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 12.1 cents, or 4.6%, to settle at $2.729 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), their highest close since March 3. That price jump pushed the front-month into technically overbought territory with a relative strength index (RSI) above 70 for the first time since last week. For the week, the contract gained about 4%, putting it up for a third week in a row for the first time since April. Around the world, gas prices at the Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF) benchmark in Europe plunged about 12% to a one-week low near $10 per mmBtu. Data provider Refinitiv said average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states fell from a record 102.5 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) in May to 101.5 bcfd so far in June due in part to ongoing pipeline maintenance in the Haynesville shale in Arkansas, Louisiana and Texas, and other basins. Meteorologists forecast the weather in the Lower 48 states would turn mostly hotter than normal from June 24-July 8. With hot weather coming, Refinitiv forecast U.S. gas demand, including exports, would rise from 94.7 bcfd this week to 97.8 bcfd next week and 101.5 bcfd in two weeks. The forecast for next week was lower than Refinitiv's outlook on Thursday. U.S. exports to Mexico rose to an average of 6.6 bcfd so far in June from 6.2 bcfd in May. That compares with a monthly record high of 6.7 bcfd in June 2021. Gas flows to the seven big U.S. LNG export plants fell to an average of 11.4 bcfd so far in June from 13.0 bcfd in May. That is well below the monthly record high of 14.0 bcfd in April due to maintenance at several facilities, including Cheniere Energy Inc's Sabine Pass in Louisiana and Freeport LNG in Texas. This week marks the first time that Sabine Pass was not receiving the most feedgas of all U.S. LNG plants since October 2020.

Limited U.S. output gains, OPEC cuts will mean higher crude prices, EOG exec says - Small gains in U.S. oil production and cuts by some OPEC+ members will limit crude supply in the months ahead and inevitably push up prices, an EOG Resources executive said Wednesday, according to Reuters."We're a short term away from seeing the market tighten even further," EOG COO Lloyd Helms reportedly told a J.P. Morgan energy conference. "We are more constructive on where oil prices could go."U.S. natural gas prices also could be supported this year by fewer drilling rigs in shale gas basins at a time when liquefied natural gas demand is expected to peak, Helms said.The Energy Information Administration has forecast U.S. oil production growth of just 1.3% to 12.77M bbl/day in 2024, after a 6.1% gain this year. Helms said EOG does not expect to expand activity in the Permian Basin, citing labor and service constraints, saying the company sees flat drilling there while turning more to Ohio's Utica shale and Wyoming's Powder River Basin.

Carbon Credit Market Seizes On a New Opportunity: Plugging Oil and Gas Wells - Tyler Crabtree was working in the oil and gas industry in North Dakota, trying to prevent methane leakage from well sites, when he started “soul searching” for a better way to address climate change. Crabtree went on to found CarbonPath, a Houston-based company offering a new class of carbon credits, or offsets, that come from plugging oil and gas wells. He realized that most of the wells in the United States produce relatively little oil and saw an opportunity to incentivize shutting them down early, locking fuel under the Earth’s surface to halt methane emissions that heat the atmosphere at 80 times the rate of carbon dioxide.CarbonPath is part of an emerging industry that pairs carbon market financing with oilfield service providers to plug wells and generate carbon credits, which it then sells to corporations trying to meet emissions reduction goals and individuals seeking to offset their own negative climate impacts. The new companies are promising to bring verified, high-quality credits into a carbon marketplace that has been fraught with calculation errors and unresolved ethical questions. “What we’re seeing particularly in the voluntary carbon market is a lot of questions about ‘how can we trust that these carbon credits are real,’” said Martijn Dekker, chief executive of ZeroSix, another Houston-based company offering carbon credits for the “early retirement of oil and gas wells.” CarbonPath has two different methodologies for generating a carbon credit. The first is for verified plugging of what Crabtree, the company’s CEO, refers to as marginal wells, which produce a small but economically significant amount of oil or gas and typically leak methane. The credit value is determined by an estimation of the potential carbon emissions of fuel left in the ground. Other companies, including ZeroSix and Austin-based ClimateWells, have developed similar methodologies.“It’s a market-driven solution,” Crabtree said. “If you put a price on carbon that’s acceptable and use the voluntary carbon market, you can incentivize the shutdown of these wells earlier in their lives.”CarbonPath’s other methodology is for orphaned wells that are inactive, have no legally responsible owner, pose a threat to groundwater, and in many cases are also leaking methane and toxic chemicals. As with the marginal wells, methane emissions from the sites are measured or estimated, and the offset is based on how much methane is prevented from leaking into the atmosphere.More than 120,000 orphan wells are documented in the United States, according to a study from the Environmental Defense Fund, or EDF, but as many as 800,000 more are thought to exist.

Judge orders Enbridge to shut down part of Wisconsin oil pipeline in 3 years - A federal judge is ordering a Canadian energy firm to pay $5.1 million for trespassing on a northern Wisconsin tribe’s reservation and remove its oil and gas pipeline from lands it’s illegally operating on within three years. The decision comes nearly four years after the Bad River Band of Lake Superior Chippewa filed a federal lawsuit against Enbridge Inc. to shut down and remove its Line 5 pipeline from the reservation. The company’s easements on a dozen parcels of land expired in 2013, and the tribe refused to renew them. Last fall, U.S. District Judge William Conley ruled Enbridge has been trespassing on the Bad River reservation, entitling the tribe to a financial remedy. The nearly 70 year-old Line 5 carries up to 23 million gallons of light crude oil and natural gas liquids each day over a 645-mile span from Superior across northern Wisconsin and Michigan to Sarnia, Ontario. The tribe sued Enbridge over fears that erosion could threaten to expose and rupture the pipeline, and concerns over the line’s safety have only heightened in recent weeks as spring flooding increased erosion on the Bad River’s banks near Line 5. The pipeline is now only 11 feet from the river at an area known as the meander. In an order issued Friday, Conley said a rupture of the pipeline at the meander is a public nuisance and that current conditions create an unreasonable risk of failure. However, he said the threat of rupture is not imminent enough to require an immediate shutdown. Conley ordered Enbridge to adopt its plan with minor changes within 21 days that would require preparation to purge the pipeline of product if two markers within 10 feet of Line 5 are lost due to erosion. The pipeline would be purged and shut down if a 60-foot span of pipe became unsupported. The company would also have to pay a portion of its profits to the tribe for as long as the pipeline continues to operate in trespass. An Enbridge spokesperson said in a statement Saturday that it agreed with the court’s decision that Line 5 should not be immediately shut down, but the company disputed that it is trespassing on the tribe’s lands. Enbridge also disagreed that the pipeline must stop operating on the reservation within three years.

Tribe has mixed reaction to federal judge’s Line 5 shutdown order - Leaders of the Bad River Band of Lake Superior Chippewa on Monday welcomed a federal judge’s order to Enbridge Energy Co. to shut down its line 5 in Northern Wisconsin, but criticized the order’s three-year timeline. “The Band appreciates the Court putting an end to Enbridge’s flagrant trespass and disregard for our rights,” said Mike Wiggins, chairman of the Bad River Band, in a statement that the tribe released Monday. “Tribal sovereignty prevailed over corporate profits.” Ruling in Madison on Friday, U.S. District Judge William Conley reaffirmed his September 2022 ruling upholding the tribe’s claim that Enbridge has been trespassing on its land for the last 10 years. Conley ordered the company to shut down the Line 5 pipeline within three years and pay more than $5 million in profits to the Bad River Band. The tribe sued Enbridge in 2019 for continuing to operate the pipeline after an agreement expired in June 2013 that gave the energy company an easement where 12 miles of pipeline passes through tribal land. While expressing appreciation for the ruling, Wiggins called it “just one step in protecting our people and water” and predicted the legal dispute would continue. “We are under no illusion that Enbridge will do the right thing,” he stated. “We expect them to fight this order with all of their corporate might.” In his Friday ruling, Conley stated that while the risk of pipeline rupture is not immediate, evidence from flooding events this spring and subsequent erosion made the prospect of a rupture “a real and unreasonable risk” in the next five years. The 60-foot-wide Line 5 runs from far Northwest Wisconsin 645 miles into Michigan’s Upper Peninsula, under the Straits of Mackinac and out into Canada near Detroit. It transports about 23 million gallons of crude oil and natural gas liquids daily. The pipeline is currently underground where it passes near a bend in the Bad River on the tribe’s reservation. While Line 5 remains buried and well supported more than 6 feet underground at the bend, or meander, flooding this spring and subsequent erosion pointed to the risk that the line could be exposed and rupture, contaminating the local watershed, the judge noted in his order. The band’s attorney, Erik Arnold, said in a statement that while the ruling was encouraging, the band disagreed with elements of the court order. Instead of ordering the line to be shut down promptly, “the three-year timeline leaves the Bad River vulnerable to catastrophe, and there is no warrant for allowing Enbridge’s trespass to continue for that long,” Arnold said.

Wisconsin Line 5 shutdown order may disrupt pipeline fight in Michigan - mlive.com Those in Michigan who want the Line 5 oil and gas pipeline shut down believe a recent ruling from a federal judge in Wisconsin could impact a pending legal case against Enbridge and disrupt company plans.U.S. District Judge William Conley in Wisconsin last week gave Enbridge three years to shut down a section of its Line 5 oil and gas pipeline that crosses tribal lands and ordered the company to pay the Bad River Band of Lake Superior Chippewa more than $5 million for trespassing.The tribe argued extensive erosion along a riverbank near the pipeline created an emergency risk of the infrastructure rupturing on and harming reservation land; Enbridge officials said they intend to appeal the ruling and may seek a stay of the judge’s decision.Tribal authorities celebrated this new Line 5 shutdown order – even with a three-year wait.Bad River Band Chairman Mike Wiggins said they appreciate the court ending Enbridge’s trespass and disregard for tribal rights. “Tribal sovereignty prevailed over corporate profits,” he said.Enbridge officials said that while the three-year timeline is “arbitrary,” the goal to reroute the pipeline 41 miles around tribal land is achievable if government regulatory agencies grant work permits in a timely fashion. The project, once permitted, would take less than one year to complete, said Ryan Duffy, Enbridge spokesperson.Regardless, the clock is now ticking toward that three-year deadline.Conley sided with the Wisconsin tribe in September, saying Enbridge was trespassing and must compensate the tribe for illegally using its land. Yet just last month, the judge said he was “uncomfortable” placed in a position to potentially shut down the pipeline, an “extraordinary request” when the tribe hadn’t allowed the company to do on-site erosion prevention work.Tribal leaders in Michigan are among those closely watching the Wisconsin case for implications at home.“I was very happy because it creates a timeline now for Line 5 to be shut down,” said Whitney Gravelle, president at Bay Mills Indian Community in the Upper Peninsula.“Ultimately, I think that the ruling is a clear signal to Enbridge as well as to state and federal regulators that there is no point investing further into risky and expensive projects for a pipeline that will inevitably be shut down. And that includes not investing in the Great Lakes tunnel project. I think the writing is on the wall that Line 5 is on life support, and that eventually it will be decommissioned altogether. Where Line 5 crosses between the Upper and Lower peninsulas beneath Great Lakes waters at the Straits of Mackinac has been the crux of the fight in Michigan.

Donnie Creek wildfire: what happens when fires, fracking collide? -Doug Smith, deputy incident commander for the Donnie Creek wildfire in B.C., had sobering news to share June 11 on a daily call with oil and gas companies and other critical infrastructure operators. The out-of-control fire had amassed so much energy it was hurling pinecones and small branches into the air and tossing the flaming debris outside its perimeter to gain ground like an advancing army. “We are seeing a solid fire front, where you have fire from the ground to the treetops and flames above the treetops, perhaps 50, 60 feet or higher,” Smith explained. The height of the fire, combined with its “spawning” activity, indicated significant spread, threatening properties, the Alaska Highway, the CN railway and fracking operations in northeast B.C. Usually wildfires calm down at night. But unseasonably hot temperatures and low humidity drove the Donnie Creek wildfire to rage on that night, sending thick and gritty smoke far and wide. By Wednesday, the fire, abetted by high winds, had engulfed an area approaching the size of Prince Edward Island. By June 18, it became thelargest ever wildfire recorded in the province. Even with 188 firefighters, 28 pieces of heavy equipment and 11 helicopters, Smith said there is little hope of stopping the lightning-sparked blaze from spreading over the next few months, given its expanding 300-kilometre perimetre. “We really need to expect that the fire is going to persist in the area indefinitely,” he told The Narwhal from the fire’s command centre in trailers at an oil and gas camp at Mile 147 on the Alaska Highway, where he and other supervisors are working from seven in the morning until nine at night.Most of the fire can’t be contained, Smith said, so the priority is to protect people, communities and critical infrastructure — chiefly the railway, the highway and fracking operations.The area burned by the Donnie Creek wildfire over the past four weeks, roughly halfway between Fort Nelson and Fort St. John, sits in the north part of the Montney basin, a vast hydrocarbon-rich region. Tens of thousands of fracking wells crisscross the Montney, with plans to drill tens of thousands more to supply LNG Canada, the country’s first liquefied natural gas (LNG) export project, through the Coastal GasLink pipeline.The fast-moving fire in B.C.’s Peace Region raises some troublesome questions: what happens when fire meets fracking? Are there human health concerns? And what impact could increasingly intense and frequent wildfires expected with climate change — and drought that restricts access to water for fracking operations — have on the BC NDP government’s gambit to promote LNG?

Train clips fuel tanker spilling 25,000 litres of diesel in Golden - Residents of Golden are speaking out with concern after thousands of litres of diesel spilled in a rail yard. On the morning of June 15, a Canadian Pacific Rail train clipped the back of a Trimac fuel tanker. According to the B.C. Ministry of Environment and Climate Change, up to 25,000 litres of diesel spilled because of the incident. The Rail Occurrence Database System, with numbers reported from Canadian Pacific, estimated that the breach caused “between 17,000 and 19,000 litres of diesel fuel to spill.” Both Canadian Pacific Rail and the Ministry of Environment and Climate Change have said that no waterways were impacted because of the breach, despite the rail yard’s proximity to the Columbia River and nearby wetlands. Some parts of the rail yard are less than 100 metres away from wetlands. The Columbia River is less than 500 metres away. According to the Rail Occurrence Database System, no one was injured as a direct result of the incident. On social media, concerned residents of the town have claimed that the volume of the spill is close to 30,000 litres. Diesel is easier to clean than other types of oil such as bunker or crude oil as it will evaporate by about 40 per cent within 48 hours in cold weather, according to a study by the provincial government. In active water, such as the Columbia River, diesel disperses quickly and becomes diluted, minimizing the threat to wildlife.

Canada Natural Gas, Oil Pipelines to See Increased Cleanup Costs - Compulsory abandonment savings that Canadian natural gas and oil pipelines must raise to shut, safely seal and clean up their operations after flows end are forecast to jump by 79%, according to a national regulatory decision.The Canada Energy Regulator (CER) set the increase (C$1.00/US 76 cents) to $18.6 billion from a previous requirement of $10.4 billion for 43,800 miles of conduits under its jurisdiction.“Continued refinement” of mandatory cleanup expense projections led to the change in the Abandonment Cost Estimate (ACE) by the regulatory agency. The original polluter-pay rule survives.“The future cost of abandoning CER-regulated facilities is paid for by companies with CER-regulated pipeline systems and not borne by indigenous peoples, landowners, or future...

Hartshead submits plan for UK gas field development Australia-based Hartshead Resources has submitted its Phase I field development plan (FDP) for the Anning and Somerville gas fields, offshore UK. The FDP, which includes a detailed description of the subsurface interpretation, planned development wells, production forecasts and facilities, has been submitted to the North Sea Transition Authority (NSTA). The fields are located within the Seaward production licence P2607 in the Southern Gas basin. Planned to be developed in phases, the P2607 licence comprises five blocks in Quads 48 and 49 on the UK Continental Shelf. The first phase of the P2607 licence comprises the Somerville and Anning Gas Fields while the second phase consists of the Hodgkin and Lovelace Gas Fields. The third phase will comprise 14 prospects. Hartshead and its joint venture partner RockRose Energy plan to finalise project debt funding and make final investment decision (FID) for the Anning and Somerville gas fields Phase 1 development upon seeking technical feedback from the NSTA. The development plan of the Somerville and Anning Gas Fields includes six production wells from two wireline-capable normally unmanned installation platforms. The gas fields are due to start production in 2025.

NATO to Build Center for Pipeline Protection - The North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) has agreed to establish a center to protect critical undersea infrastructure such as pipelines citing risks of attack by Russia. The Maritime Centre for the Security of Critical Undersea Infrastructure will rise in London “to bring together different Allies to share information, share best practices, and to be able to react if something abnormal happens”, NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg told a press conference Friday after a meeting of the coalition’s defense ministers in Brussels. Though not explicitly blaming Russia for last year’s apparent Nord Stream sabotage, NATO has warned of a strong response against attacks on allies’ critical maritime assets. “So we know that Russia has the capacity to map, but also potentially to conduct actions against critical infrastructure… This is about gas pipelines, oil pipelines, but not least thousands of kilometers of Internet cables, which is [sic] so critical for our modern societies - for financial transaction, for communications, and this is in the North Sea, in the Baltic Sea, but across the whole Atlantic, the Mediterranean Sea”, Stoltenberg said. Besides pooling government efforts, the center also seeks to boost cooperation with the private sector on safeguarding undersea infrastructure. Most of the infrastructure “is owned and operated by the private sector and they also have a lot of capabilities, to protect, to do repair and so on”, Stoltenberg said. The United Kingdom, which will host the center at the NATO Maritime Command in Northwood, said in a press release, “The center will result in better coordination between allies and with industry to share expertise, creating a NATO-wide picture of the threat and best way to tackle the challenges including best practice and innovative technologies, such as the UK’s two Multi-Role Ocean Surveillance (MROS) ships – the first of which, HMS Proteus, is due to sail shortly”. NATO early this year launched the so-called Critical Undersea Infrastructure Coordination Cell. To rise at NATO’s headquarters in Brussels, the cell will “enable better coordination between key military and civilian stakeholders and with industry, on an issue that is vital to our security”, Hans-Werner Wiermann, former director-general of NATO’s International Military Staff, said in a NATO media release February 15. That announcement said the “Nord Stream sabotage has highlighted the vulnerability of undersea energy pipelines and communication cables”. “In response, NATO Allies have significantly increased their military presence around key infrastructure, including with ships and patrol aircraft”, it added. “In January, NATO and the EU also set up a joint task force to protect critical infrastructure.”

Eastward gas flows resume on Yamal-Europe pipeline -- -Eastward natural gas flows on the Yamal-Europe pipeline to Poland from Germany resumed on Thursday,data from operator Gascade showed.Exit flows at the Mallnow metering point on the German border stood at 802,800 kWh/h between 0300 CET and 0400 CET, from zero in the previous hour, the data showed.

Japans Mitsui says no plans to exit Russias Sakhalin-2 LNG project (Reuters) - Japanese trading house Mitsui & Co has no plans to withdraw from the Sakhalin-2 liquefied natural gas (LNG) project in Russia, a senior executive said on Wednesday, adding the operation was continuing super-chilled fuel exports to Japan. "We have decided last year to keep our stake in the Sakhalin-2 after consulting with the Japanese government as the project supplies about 9% of Japan's LNG imports," Toru Matsui, Mitsui's senior executive managing officer, told an annual general meeting. The National Gas Company of Trinidad and Tobago Limited (NGC) NGC’s HSSE strategy is reflective and supportive of the organisational vision to become a leader in the global energy business. "We have no plan to exit the project at the moment," he said, while adding that Mitsui would make an appropriate change if and when the situation changed because of the Japanese company's policy of complying with any government sanctions. Asked by a shareholder whether Mitsui was under pressure or had received unreasonable requests from the Russian government, Matsui said the project was experiencing no issues with operations and was continuing to export LNG to Japan. Mitsui and its peer Mitsubishi Corp retained their 22.5% combined stakes in Sakhalin-2 after the Kremlin ordered the establishment of a new locally-based operating company in retaliation for Western sanctions imposed on Moscow after it sent troops to Ukraine last year. Their former partner Shell quit Sakhalin-2 as one of the many Western firms that pulled out of Russia after Moscow's invasion of Ukraine. In April, the Russian government approved the sale of Shell's 27.5% stake to local natural gas producer Novatek. Sakhalin-2 is one of the world's largest LNG projects, supplying about 4% of the global market. Russia's Gazprom holds a 50%-plus-one-share stake in the operation.

Beetaloo Station owners lose Supreme Court appeal for fracking compensation - Northern Territory cattle station owners have lost a Supreme Court appeal to receive compensation for future damages from gas exploration in the Beetaloo Basin. The owners of Beetaloo Station — the property from which the gas-rich basin gets its name — argued in court they should receive compensation from gas company Tamboran Resources' subsidiary Sweetpea Petroleum, over its proposal to clear land for seismic testing on the property. Seismic exploration involves clearing corridors of vegetation in a grid format so heavy equipment can survey the geological structure beneath the ground. Justice Peter Barr has upheld a NT Civil and Administrative Tribunal (NTCAT) decision in February 2022 which ruled Beetaloo Station's owners were not entitled to compensation before exploration activity had taken place. The 1.05-million-hectare property, 750 kilometres south-east of Darwin, is owned by billionaire Brett Blundy and the Armstrong family, and is currently on the market, with expectations it could sell for more than $300 million. an aerial photo of road trains lined up next to a set of cattle yards, with yellow grasslands behind. The pastoralist's lawyer told the court that station staff would need to monitor Sweetpea's clearing for weeds, increasing management costs. Justice Barr ruled that compensation to the landholders could only be considered after the exploration activity had taken place. "Damage to land or improvements may be temporary, and one would not normally expect compensation to be assessed until such time as Sweetpea had carried out the rehabilitation and remediation measures required," Justice Barr said in his judgement.

2023 Offshore Exploration Spending to Rise Over 20 Percent: SLB --Offshore oil and gas exploration spending will rise by more than 20 percent in 2023, according to oilfield technology company SLB. SLB CEO Olivier Le Peuch said in a presentation at the J.P. Morgan Energy, Power & Renewables Conference offshore exploration “from shallow to deepwater, is experiencing a broad resurgence”. “Offshore is experiencing a renaissance, with significant breadth and anticipated durability”, Le Peuch said, as quoted in a transcript on the SLB website. “Driven by the imperative of energy security, regionalization, and North American shale supply discipline, operators across the world are looking to hasten discovery to renew supply, accelerate development cycle times, and increase the productivity of their offshore assets.” “Today, offshore is the fastest growing market globally driven by long-cycle developments, production capacity expansions, the return of exploration and appraisal in brownfields, and new frontiers, and the criticality of gas as a long-term fuel for energy security”, Le Peuch continued. SLB said there are currently over 400 active offshore rigs, predicting an increase in the “low to mid-teens” in 2023 and “further double-digit growth” in 2024. The outlook beyond 2024 will continue to be strong, SLB noted. Between 2022 and 2025, the company projects more than $500 billion in global final investment decisions (FIDs) across over 30 countries, with more than $200 billion attributable to deepwater exploration. In total, the expected offshore investment in this period will see a 90 percent jump compared to the period of 2016 to 2019, the presentation said. The resurgence in offshore is supported by infill and tie-back activity accelerating in mature basins such as in Africa; large oil and gas development projects being scaled up in Guyana, Brazil, and the Middle East; and return of exploration and appraisal, notably in new frontier offshore provinces such as Namibia, Tanzania, Colombia, India, and East Mediterranean, Le Peuch said. SLB sees “a long tail of activity with 65 lease rounds concluding globally, in addition to several countries awarding leases through open door policies”, Le Peuch said. Further, 348 subsea trees were awarded in 2022, the most since 2013, and there will be approximately 300 awarded in 2023, according to the presentation.

Iran supply glut could weigh down oil prices, predict experts - An unexpected influx of oil supplies from Iran could help further weigh down prices, with expectations for global consumption constrained by slower growth forecasts in China. Both major benchmarks are down in this evening’s trading, with Brent Crude sliding 1.27 per cent to $75.12 per barrel, while WTI Crude tumbled 2.19 per cent to $70.21 per barrel over the same time period.This follows China’s fuel oil imports dipping last month after hitting a decade high in April, with its retail and factory sectors also struggling to sustain momentum from earlier this year. While OPEC+ has committed to 3.7m barrels per day of output cuts, the gloomy economic data from China, alongside long-standing factors such as hawkish rate hikes from the US Federal Reserve has overpowered their attempts to prop up prices. Iran’s crude production could put even more pressure prices, with the International Energy Agency reporting last week that the country’s output has risen to 2.87m barrels – around three per cent of global supplies. Flows data provider Kpler has further calculated that Iranian crude exports exceeded 1.5m barrels per day (bpd) over the same month, the highest monthly rate since 2018, despite sanctions. Exports had risen to around 2.5m bpd in 2018, before the US withdrawal from the nuclear deal during the Trump administration. Rystad Energy argues that “opaque exports from sanctioned countries” included will “further contribute to supply uncertainty.” “Surprisingly, while expectations suggested a drop in Iranian crude exports, they have remained stronger than anticipated due to Russia’s reduced reliance on the dark fleet tanker market,” the energy specialist argued. Iranian supplies potentially even mitigate expectations of a deficit later this year when demand is expected to rebound. nAs we can see from the price currently and the limited impact of Saudi cuts recently, the market is currently well supplied. While some of this may be priced in, depending on volumes it could push the price lower. That said, there is an expectation that the market could move into deficit later in the year, but again additional Iranian supply could alleviate that.”

Oil prices down on China's economic uncertainties | Al Bawaba – Global oil prices slid more than 1 percent Monday, after significant gains last week, over economic uncertainties in China outweighing oil production cuts. Brent crude was down $0.78 to $75.83 a barrel, Reuters reported. Meanwhile, United States (US) West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude was down $0.76 to $71.02. Concerns over China’s economic growth surpass the impact of output cuts by members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and their allies (OPEC+). It even outweighed production cuts in Canada and the US, with the seventh straight drop in oil and gas rigs operating in the United States. "China's economic uncertainties may have caused the selloff after a two-day rebound in oil markets ahead of The People's Bank of China's (PBOC) decision on its loan prime rates (LPR) this week," Tina Teng, an analyst at CMC Markets, told Reuters. A number of major banks have cut their 2023 gross domestic product growth forecasts for China after May data last week showed China’s post-COVID recovery was faltering.

Oil Prices Fall On Chinese Demand Fears | OilPrice.com -Oil prices fell on Tuesday morning as uncertainty around Chinese oil demand continues to grow - particularly in the near-term. Chinese refiners added some 1.77 million b/d of crude to their inventories in May, equivalent to 53 MMbbls, the most since July 2020, making it unlikely that China would go on a buying spree anytime soon. The inventory build-up stemmed from a period of lower refinery runs in April-May, just as spring maintenance was peaking, taking the aggregate amount of crude in Chinese storage to almost 1 billion barrels. Despite refineries being offline and diesel demand still far from expected levels, oil imports into China hit the third-highest reading on record with 12.11 million b/d as buyers doubled down on Iranian and Russian barrels. Even though Chinese private refiners received 62.3 million tons of volume allotments in the 3rd oil import quotas of 2023, high stocks might temporarily bar them from tapping the market for immediate deliveries. QatarEnergy signed another megadeal with China, this time clinching a 27-year term agreement with China’s CNPC for the purchase of 4 million tons LNG per year once the North Field expansion is online. - US oil producer Civitas Resources announced it is buying oil and gas assets operated by private equity firm NGP Energy Capital Management for $4.7 billion, adding some 100 kboepd in the Delaware and Midland basins. After a rather uneventful start to the week, with the US markets out on Monday, oil prices fell on Tuesday morning. While China's decision to cut its one- and five-year lending rates should help to bolster economic activity, there is growing uncertainty around the country's oil demand. China’s huge build-up in stocks these past weeks and the CNPC’s recent downgrading of Chinese oil demand growth in 2023 poured cold water on immediate expectations of strong demand. Early on Tuesday morning, WTI had fallen below $70 and Brent was trading below $75.

WTI Oil Slides Below $70 in Intraday Trading on Rallying US Dollar -- New York Mercantile Exchange oil futures and Brent crude on the Intercontinental Exchange declined Tuesday, with July West Texas Intermediate pressing below $70 during intraday trade. The decline came amid a strengthening U.S. dollar index after federal data showed a housing market rebound continued for a second straight month in May, with new home construction surging by the most since 2016, suggesting residential construction could be fueling economic growth. The housing market is thought to be the most interest rate sensitive sector of the economy and serve as a "canary in the coalmine" for the rest of the economy when the housing index fell into contraction earlier in the year. However, figures released Tuesday morning by the U.S. Census Bureau show that while existing home sales fell in April and are expected to have again eased in May when new data is released on Thursday, new home construction starts jumped 21.7% month-over-month to a 1.63 million annualized rate compared to median estimates of just 10%. Applications to build, a proxy for future construction, also climbed 5.2% to an annualized rate of 1.49 million units. After the report, the Atlanta Fed GDPNow forecast residential investment will add slightly to the gross domestic product estimates for the second quarter. Homebuilding last contributed to growth in the first quarter of 2021. This might be good news for the economy but not for the Federal Reserve that has tried to pour cold water on the economy with the most aggressive rate hiking campaign in decades. On June 14, the Federal Open Market Committee paused increases in the federal funds rate at a 5% to 5.25% target range but signaled more hikes are needed to slow the red-hot labor market along with aggregate demand. Prospects of higher interest rates in the United States and European Union amid stubborn inflation have diminished buying interest for commodity space in recent weeks. Global crude benchmark Brent has fallen about 11% so far this year despite forecasts for a growing supply deficit following production cuts from OPEC+ and expectations for a post-COVID rebound in China's economy that has faltered. At the recent G7 meeting in Japan, leaders of rich and industrialized nations stressed the importance of "de-risking" commercial ties with China, albeit stopped short of calling for "de-coupling." Chinese authorities in recent weeks stepped up surveillance of foreign firms in connection to data privacy and intellectual property, deterring global business and undermining its own interests. As foreign business leaves China's shores, youth unemployment spiked to a record-high 20.8% in May, highlighting structural issues in China's labor market. Against this backdrop, China's move to cut two key interest rates by a modest 10 basis points fades in comparison to mounting problems the economy is now facing. China's growth has consistently been downgraded throughout this year, with the latest revision coming from Goldman Sachs, which cited turbulence in property markets and high unemployment when cutting its 2023 GDP forecast to 5.4% from 6%. While the investment bank sees further stimulus to come, it notes that the measures will not be enough to overcome the greater problem that it faces: weakened sentiment. NYMEX July West Texas Intermediate futures expired $1.28 lower at $70.50 per barrel (bbl) before sliding to $69.65 per bbl in intrasession low, while next-month August contract settled the session at $71.19 per bbl. International crude benchmark Brent for August delivery declined to $75.90 per bbl, down a modest $0.19 per bbl. NYMEX July ULSD futures dropped back $0.0760 to $2.4754 per gallon, and NYMEX July RBOB futures fell to $2.6092 per gallon, down $0.0713 per gallon.

The Oil Market on Tuesday Sold Off, Giving Up All of Last Week's 2.3% Gain - The oil market on Tuesday sold off, giving up all of last week’s 2.3% gain as the market continues to experience choppy, rangebound trading. The market traded to a high of $72.02 during Monday’s shortened trading session in observance of Juneteenth. It continued to trade mostly sideways when it reopened overnight and rallied to a high of $72.09 on Tuesday morning. However, the market gave up its gains and sold off to a low of $69.65 by mid-morning, ahead of the July contract’s expiration at the close. The market was pressured by forecasts for slower growth of oil demand in China. The oil complex also followed the U.S. stock indexes lower as hawkish comments from U.S. Federal Reserve officials last week kept traders concerned about interest rate increases and its impact to oil demand. The market later retraced some of its losses ahead of the close. The July WTI contract, which posted an outside trading day, went off the board down $1.28 at $70.50, while the August WTI contract settled down 74 cents at $71.19. The August Brent contract settled down 19 cents at $75.90. Meanwhile, the product markets also sold off and settled in negative territory, with the heating oil market settling down 76 points at $2.4754 and the RB market settling down 7.13 cents at $2.6092. Tech Iraqi Kurdish Prime Minister Masrour Barzani arrived in Turkey on Tuesday for talks with President Tayyip Erdogan, including discussion of halted oil exports. Turkey halted Iraq's 450,000 bpd of exports through the northern Iraq-Turkey pipeline on March 25th after an arbitration ruling by the International Chamber of Commerce. A Kurdish official said the visit by the Iraqi Kurdish Prime Minister is aimed at finding ways to accelerate the resumption of those exports. According to Reuters estimates, the Iraqi Kurdish region has lost more than $2.2 billion over the 87 days the pipeline has been shut. A researcher at China National Petroleum Corporation's research arm said China's 2023 crude oil demand is expected to reach 740 million metric tons or 14.86 million bpd, up 3.5% on the year. Wang Lining, head of markets at the Economic & Technology Research Institute said gasoline demand in 2023 will increase 0.8% above 2019 levels, while its diesel demand is seen reaching 98.8% of the 2019 level and kerosene demand is seen reaching about 95% of 2019 levels. China's oil imports from Russia increased to a record high in May, as private refiners continue to import sanctioned ESPO and Urals shipments at discounts. According to data from the General Administration of Customs, arrivals from Russia totaled 9.71 million metric tons in May or 2.29 million bpd. This represented the highest level on record and a 32.4% increase on April's figure of 1.73 million bpd. Phillips 66 reported a unit upset at its 356,000 bpd Wood River, Illinois refinery. Colonial Pipeline Co is allocating space for Cycle 37 on Line 1, its main gasoline line from Houston, Texas to Greensboro, North Carolina. The current allocation is for the pipeline segment north of Collins, Mississippi.

Oil Prices Flat Ahead Of Powell's Brief To Congress Oil prices were flat early on Wednesday as Fed Chair Jerome Powell is set to brief Congress on the U.S. economy today and tomorrow. As of 7:57 a.m. ET on Wednesday, the U.S. benchmark, WTI Crude, was up 0.01% at $71.16, and the international benchmark, Brent Crude, traded at $75.83, slightly down by 0.04% on the day. Prices have been seesawing today as the market expects Powell to give a detailed rationale of last week’s Fed decision to hold interest rates unchanged after 10 consecutive Fed meetings that ended with rate hikes. Powell’s comments on the U.S. economy will be closely watched by the market on Wednesday afternoon and on Thursday for clues about the chances of the U.S. managing a soft landing after the recent rate hikes. In Europe, inflation in the UK continues to be high, with May inflation stuck at an annual 8.7%, flat compared to April and higher than expectations. The lack of easing of the consumer price pressure could give the Bank of England more reasons to raise the key UK interest rate again when it meets on Thursday. “Countries are struggling to rein in inflation – the UK this morning a prime example of that – and that’s going to dampen growth and threaten recessions across the globe,” “There are so many moving parts at this stage but at this point in time, there’s more negative than positive as far as the crude price is concerned,” Erlam added. Observed higher supply from Iran is undermining the Saudi efforts “to desperately manipulate prices higher with production cuts,” the analyst also noted. China’s much-awaited economic stimulus has also been underwhelming, further weighing on oil prices and the prospects of oil demand, analysts say. “China’s demand outlook is crucial for the global market, given that the bulk of global demand growth this year is expected to be driven by China. Significantly weaker Chinese demand would also mean that the global oil balance would not be as tight as currently expected over the second half of 2023,”

Oil Pushes Higher as US Dollar Nosedives on Powell's Testimony -- New York Mercantile Exchange oil futures and Brent crude traded on the Intercontinental Exchange powered higher in the afternoon session Wednesday. The gains came as investors parsed through comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell to the House Financial Services Committee amid concerns over the impact of tighter monetary policy on oil demand. U.S. dollar index fell 0.44% against global peers to finish the session at a 101.676 six-week low after Powell assured lawmakers on Capitol Hill that pausing rate increases at the June 14 Federal Open Market Committee meeting is nevertheless consistent with lifting them later this year depending on incoming inflation data. Investors judged the comments could signal that the central bank is still data dependent and could pause rates altogether should the data warrant such a move. .. The Fed last week left the federal funds rate unchanged in a 5% to 5.25% target range but indicated that more rate hikes are likely needed before the end of the year to cool excessive demand. Government figures released Tuesday showed new home construction starts jumped 21.7% month-over-month to a 1.63 million annualized rate, while applications to build, a proxy for future construction, also climbed 5.2% to an annualized rate of 1.49 million units. After the report, the Atlanta Fed GDPNow forecast residential investment would add slightly to U.S. gross domestic product estimates for the second quarter. Homebuilding last contributed to growth in the first quarter of 2021. Also Wednesday afternoon, oil traders positioned ahead of the weekly release of inventory data from the American Petroleum Institute scheduled for 4:30 p.m. EDT, delayed one day due to observance of the Juneteenth holiday in the United States. The U.S. Energy Information Administration will release official inventory data 11 a.m. EDT Thursday. On the session, NYMEX August West Texas Intermediate futures advanced to $72.53 per bbl, up $1.34, and international crude benchmark Brent for August delivery gained to $77.12 per bbl. NYMEX July ULSD futures rallied $0.0888 to $2.5642 per gallon, and NYMEX July RBOB futures gained $0.0149 to $2.6241 per gallon.

Oil rallies as grain markets tighten, dollar falls on Fed Chair comments - Oil prices gained a dollar a barrel on Wednesday as U.S. corn and soybean prices raced to multi-month highs, raising expectations that crop shortfalls around the globe could lower biofuels blending and increase oil demand. Brent futures rose $1.22, or 1.6%, to settle at $77.12 a barrel, while the U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures rose $1.34, or 1.9%, to settle at $72.53 a barrel. Both contracts hit two-week highs earlier in the session. Chicago Board of Trade corn futures rose 5.2% on Wednesday after a government report showed much of the U.S. crop being stressed by dry conditions as it neared key development phases, traders said. CBOT November soybeans hit their highest since March 9. "The grain markets are starting to wake up to the fact that inventories are low and it'll only be a matter of time before the oil market wakes up to that fact," Also supporting oil prices, the U.S. dollar fell against a basket of global currencies on Wednesday after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell suggested that the central bank is nearing its policy destination. A cheaper greenback makes dollar-denominated oil more attractive for investors holding other currencies, raising demand. Meanwhile, some analysts polled by Reuters said they expected U.S. crude oil and product inventories to have declined last week, indicating stronger demand. However, an expanded poll now predicts a small build in crude oil stockpiles. Oil price gains were capped after data showed on Wednesday that British inflation defied expectations of a slowdown. The rate held at 8.7% in May, boosting expectations the Bank of England will raise interest rates by a hefty half a percentage point on Thursday. "Countries are struggling to rein in inflation ... and that's going to dampen growth and threaten recessions across the globe,"

WTI Extends Losses After Biden Admin Drains SPR For 12th Straight Week -- Oil pries are tumbling back to earth today after some early week exuberance as a cavalcade of hawkish central bank action and FedSpeakAs Bloomberg reports, de-stocking is the main reason why the physical crude market isn’t reflecting the significant draws to come in the third quarter, Energy Aspects said in a note.“Stocks are drawing, but due to rising cost of capital, refiners want to hold less inventory than before and so are not bidding for crude in earnest yet,” they said.The market will tighten in 2H, with or without the extra OPEC cuts.The question is - will stocks continue to rise at Cushing, and will recent product builds continue to point to demand ebbing? DOE

• Crude -3.83mm (-4.31mm exp)
• Cushing -98k
• Gasoline +479k
• Distillates +434k

Small product builds and a tiny drop in stocks at Cushing (the first in 9 weeks) combined with a smaller than expected crude draw do not help bullish sentiment... Of course, it's all bullshit since the adjustment factor remains extremely high... Despite ongoing chatter about 'refilling' the SPR, the Biden admin drained crude for the 12th straight week (-1.719mm barrels). Added to the commercial draw,m that is the biggest overall drop in US inventories in 4 weeks...

Oil Futures Plummet on Global Monetary Policy Actions -West Texas Intermediate tumbled more than 4% to its lowest close in a week as risk-off sentiment in wider markets overshadowed data showing a drop in US crude inventories. US crude inventories declined by about 4 million barrels last week, government date showed, but it was still not enough to counteract the negative mood, traders said. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s comments Wednesday that further rate increases were likely warranted to quell inflation were followed by rate hikes Thursday in England and Norway. The global tightening heightened investor concerns that the quest to slow inflation could result in an economic slowdown as consumers pull back on spending in a high interest rate environment. “The continued central bank tilt toward a more hawkish monetary policy stance, growing demand concerns amid Chinese weakness and signs the US economy may soon record negative growth numbers has prompted {commodity trading advisors,} other systematic funds and discretionary traders to convincingly reduce length,” Bart Melek, global head of commodity strategy at TD Securities, said in a note. The price collapse also extended to timespreads. Brent crude’s prompt spread slumped to the weakest since late May, signaling robust supplies in the short term. Prices have been largely rangebound since early May as pressure from higher interest rates and robust supplies vie with efforts by OPEC+ to support crude. Traders are now keenly focused on the outlook for the second half of the year, which could be tight even with sluggish Chinese growth, according to the International Energy Agency. “The current negativity may very well be based on fears of the worst-case scenario, rather than the likely facts on the ground for the balance of the year,” Melek said. TD Securities still expects US crude futures to approach $90 a barrel in the latter part of the year, he said. WTI for August delivery declined 4.2% to settle at $69.51 a barrel at 1:40 p.m. in New York. Brent for August settlement fell 3.9% to settle at $74.14 a barrel.

Oil Prices Fall On Fuel Demand Concerns --Oil prices fell more than 1 percent on Thursday as inflation and interest-rate worries returned to the fore, raising concerns about the outlook for fuel demand. Benchmark Brent crude futures fell 1.4 percent to $76.06 a barrel, while WTI crude futures were down 1.3 percent at $71.56.After Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell signaled more interest rate hikes to tame inflation, investors in the Treasury bond market are betting that additional rate hikes will drive the U.S. economy into recession. Elsewhere in Europe, some European Central Bank (ECB) policymakers said on Wednesday that euro zone inflation is stubborn and may require a protracted period of high interest rates.Earlier today, the Swiss National Bank continued its policy tightening with yet another hike to its interest rates and said more such moves are likely to counter rising inflationary pressure. The Norges Bank also turned hawkish and raised its benchmark interest rate by 50 bps to a 15-year high.Traders are divided over the possibility of a big interest rate move by the Bank of England later in the day after inflation data came in higher than expected.On the positive side, inventory data from the American Petroleum Institute showed that U.S. crude oil inventories fell by about 1.2 million barrels in the week ended June 16, defying forecasts for a build.

Oil Plunges 4% on Hawkish Central Banks, USD Gains -- New York Mercantile Exchange oil futures and Brent crude traded on the Intercontinental Exchange settled Thursday's session with steep losses, with the international crude benchmark pressured below $75 bbl after the Bank of England and Norwegian Central Bank among others sharply raised interest rates to fight relentless inflation, signaling central banks are not seeing sufficient progress in slowing rising consumer prices. The United Kingdom, the world's sixth largest economy, is largely seen in recession this year after BOE shocked markets with another 50-basis point rate hike on Thursday, a further blow to homeowners struggling with skyrocketing mortgages. "We took this decision today because unfortunately inflation is still way too high. Recent data have shown us that further decisive action is needed. Many people with mortgages and loans are now rightfully worried about what it means for them. But if we don't raise rates right now, higher inflation will stay with us for longer," said BOE Governor Andrew Bailey. Inflation in the UK remained stuck last month at 8.7%, with prices paid for recreation and cultural activities rising at a faster pace than in April and, although food inflation eased, it remained in a double-digit vicinity at more than 18%. . What's more, inflation in the United States appears to have infected the labor market and wage-setting to a greater extent than elsewhere, with average earnings rising at a faster pace over the past three months even as payrolls are falling. This doesn't bode well for other central banks that are struggling with second-round effects of rising consumer prices in the service sector and high energy costs in Europe. Norway's central bank and Swiss National Bank also raised interest rates on Thursday while signaling more tightening is needed to bring inflation under control. Against this background, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell concluded the second day of Congressional testimony on Thursday where he reiterated that the central bank is aiming for a higher terminal rate at the end of the current tightening cycle, albeit, ready to go slower than in prior months. Powell reiterated that the pace and the extent of rate increases are two separate variables for the central bank that continues to be data-dependent in setting rate policy. Separately, the weekly U.S. inventory report released by the U.S. Energy Information Administration late morning was mixed-to-bearish, showing refined fuel stocks jumped even as refiners pulled back on runs. U.S. refiners scaled back run rates for the second straight week through June 16 to 93.1% of capacity, down 0.6% from the prior week. U.S. refiners processed 16.5 million bpd of crude oil, which was 116,000 bpd less than the previous week. In the gasoline complex, commercial inventories rose by 479,000 bbl to 221.4 million bbl compared with analyst expectations for a 500,000 bbl decrease. Demand for gasoline gained 182,000 bpd to 9.379 million bpd, bringing the four-week average consumption rate to 9.2 million bpd, up 3.1% from the same period last year. Diesel stockpiles, meanwhile, built by 434,000 bbl to 114.3 million bbl, and are now about 15% below the five-year average, the EIA said. Analysts expected distillate inventories rose 600,000 bbl last week. At settlement, NYMEX August West Texas Intermediate futures declined to $69.51 bbl, down $3.02 on the session, and international crude benchmark Brent for August delivery retreated $2.98 to $74.14 bbl. NYMEX July ULSD futures pulled back $0.0987 to $2.4655 gallon and NYMEX July RBOB futures dropped $0.0740 to $2.5501 gallon.

Oil tumbles 4%, with U.S. crude below $70, as BoE shocks markets By Investing.com The weekly reading on supply-demand for U.S. oil came on the positive side Thursday. But crude prices tumbled 4% instead, with New York-traded West Texas Intermediate, or WTI, breaking below the key $ 70-per-barrel support as traders reacted more to the sticker shock of the latest Bank of England rate hike that stunned global markets. The BoE raised interest rates by half a percentage point — twice more than forecast — saying it needed to act against "significant" indicators that British inflation would take longer to fall. U.K.’s main interest rate is now at 5%, the highest since 2008 after the largest rate increase since February. The U.K. central bank has raised rates for 13 consecutive times to trail just behind the Federal Reserve, which has brought U.S. rates to a peak of 5.25% with 10 straight rounds of tightening. Fed Chair Jay Powell, testifying before the Senate on Thursday, reinforced expectations that the U.S. central bank will hike rates at least twice more this year. “It’s bad macro versus good data,” John Kilduff, partner at New York energy hedge fund Again Capital said, referring to the market reaction to surging rates that usurped any feel-good impact from the positive weekly reading on oil inventories from the U.S. Energy Information Administration, or EIA. Ed Moya, analyst at online trading platform OANDA, concurred, saying: “Oil prices are going to remain heavy as central bank tightening will kill the global growth outlook." WTI settled down $3.02, or 4.2%, at $69.51 per barrel, overwriting Wednesday’s near 3% rally. The U.S. crude benchmark has had a volatile month, finishing last week up 2.3% after a net 3.5% tumble over two prior weeks. London-traded Brent settled down $2.98, or 3.9%, at $74.14, versus Wednesday’s gain of 1.6%. Like WTI, the global crude benchmark has had a rocky June, finishing last week up 2.4%, after a net slump of nearly 2% over two previous weeks. The U.S. crude inventory balance fell by 3.831 million barrels during the week ended June 16, the EIA said in its Weekly Petroleum Status Report as market participants tried to discern demand in what is typically the busiest time of the year for travel. Industry analysts polled by Investing.com had only expected a build of 1.873M barrels in the latest week. In the previous week to June 9, crude stockpiles rose by 7.919M barrels. The crude build reported by the EIA, however, came with a usual caveat: The release of 1.7M from the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve, without which the inventory drop would logically have been 5.5M. Highest weekly demand for fuels since December; Crude exports up 40% On the gasoline inventory side, the EIA reported a build of 0.479M barrels. Analysts had expected the agency to cite a build of 1.091M barrels instead, after the previous week’s rise of 2.108M barrels. Automotive fuel gasoline is the No. 1 U.S. fuel product. In the case of distillate stockpiles, the EIA reported a build of 0.433M barrels. Analysts had forecast a draw of just 1,000 barrels last week, against a previous build of 2.123M. Distillates are refined into heating oil, diesel for trucks, buses, trains and ships, and fuel for jets. The latest weekly EIA reading for total fuel products supplied to the market was 20.925M barrels versus 20.408M the prior week. That, based on historical data maintained by the agency, was the highest since December. U.S. crude exports also surged during the week, rising to 4.543M barrels, or almost 40% above the previous week’s tally of 3.27M

The Impact of a Larger Than Expected Rate Hike by the Bank of England Outweighed a Larger Than Expected Draw in Crude Stocks - The oil market fell over 4% on Thursday as concerns over the impact of a larger than expected rate hike by the Bank of England outweighed a larger than expected draw in crude stocks. The market opened down 10 cents at $72.43 and posted a high of $72.65 in overnight trading. However, the market erased its previous gains and sold off sharply as the Bank of England raised interest rates by half a percentage point. The oil market was further pressured as Federal Reserve Chair, Jerome Powell, said two more U.S. interest rate hikes of 25 basis points each by the end of the year was “a pretty good guess.” The market extended its losses to $3.60 as it sold off to a low of $68.93 despite the EIA report showing a draw in crude stocks of close to 4 million barrels. The market later retraced some of its losses ahead of the close, with the August WTI contract settling down $3.02 at $69.51. The August Brent contract settled down $2.98 at $74.14. The product markets settled sharply lower, with the heating oil market settling down 9.87 cents at $2.4655 and the RB market settling down 7.4 cents at $2.5501. The EIA reported that U.S. crude oil output fell by 200,000 bpd to 12.2 million bpd last week, the largest decline since September 2021. It reported that U.S. crude stocks in the SPR fell by 1.7 million barrels in the latest week to 350 million barrels, the lowest level since August 1983.A Refinitiv analyst said European diesel imports in June look set to reach 6.02 million metric tons and are likely to exceed May’s total imports of 6.1 million tons. Diesel exports from Asia and the Middle East to Europe are expected to increase in July and August as refining margins in Europe continue to strengthen. According to the latest survey of energy executives by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, oilfield activity slowed further this quarter, with declines in oil production and gas output indices. The overall business activity index fell to zero in the second quarter from 2.1 in the previous quarter. U.S. oilfield executives polled this quarter expect crude oil and natural gas prices to continue rising through the end of this year. A survey of energy executives at 152 firms found they expect U.S. crude oil prices to reach by year-end about $77/barrel and natural gas at $2.97/mmBtu.In his second day of hearings before the U.S. Congress, Federal Reserve Chair, Jerome Powell, defended the likely need for further interest rate increases despite the possible impact on jobs. He said the test for the Federal Reserve interest rate cuts down the road is confidence that inflation is moving lower and any reduction will need to wait until policymakers are confident inflation is moving down to the central bank’s 2% target. He said the central bank would move interest rates at a “careful pace”. Valero’s 195,000 bpd McKee, Texas refinery reported emissions from a fluid catalytic cracking unit stack vent on Wednesday. Marathon Petroleum Corp reported unplanned flaring due to mechanical/electrical malfunction at its Wilmington, California refinery.Exxon Mobil Corp reported emissions at its 564,440 bpd Baytown, Texas refinery on Wednesday. It said an unplanned opening of a feed valve to pipestill 8 resulted in a unit upset at the refinery.A fire was extinguished at Pemex’s Dos Bocas refinery in Mexico.

Oil prices rise with heightened demand hopes in China --Oil prices increased on Friday with optimism surrounding an increase in energy demand in China and the weaker dollar index. International benchmark Brent crude traded at $75.80 per barrel at 9.54 a.m. local time (0654 GMT), a 0.17% rise from the closing price of $75.67 a barrel in the previous trading session on Wednesday. The American benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) traded at the same time at $70.70 per barrel, up 0.11% from the previous session's close of $70.62 per barrel. The expectation of a Chinese economic recovery, which some market participants predict would drive crude demand to record highs, was further buoyed by a series of interest rate reductions this week. Also, China's oil refinery production reached record high levels with an increase of 15.4% in May compared to the same month last year. Analysts expect oil demand in the world's largest crude oil importer to continue to increase in the second half of the year. Such positive economic growth statistics are fueling expectations of a spike in Chinese demand. The US dollar index, which measures the value of the American dollar against a basket of currencies, including the Japanese yen, British pound, Canadian dollar, Swedish krona and Swiss franc, fell 0.05% to 101.668 early Friday. This declining dollar is reflected in cheaper dollar-indexed crude for buyers holding other currencies, encouraging more trade and ultimately pushing prices higher. Meanwhile, the possibility of further interest rate increases later in the year by the US Federal Reserve and other global central banks continues to weigh on oil prices.

Oil Posts Weekly Losses on Global Manufacturing Slowdown -- New York Mercantile Exchange oil futures and Brent crude traded on the Intercontinental Exchange settled Friday's session lower, with all petroleum contracts registering steep weekly losses. The declines came amid a one-two punch of continued increases in interest rates by hawkish central banks in their fight against sticky inflation and a sharp slowdown in manufacturing activity in the United States and European Union among other major economies. Friday's macroeconomic data out of the U.S. and EU revealed manufacturing activity across the two sides of the Atlantic fell into deeper recession this month. In Germany, the EU's largest economy, manufacturing PMI plummeted to a 37-month low at 41, with the broader economy losing considerable momentum at the end of the second quarter. "In manufacturing, all signs point to a contraction in the second quarter, while a slowdown in growth is also evident in the services sector," commented Dr. Cyrus de la Rubia, chief economist at Hamburg Commercial Bank, on the reading. The slowdown doesn't bode well for distillate fuel demand that is mostly used in industrial production, agriculture, and long-haul trucking. Domestically, the economy still holds to its post-pandemic momentum in the services sector, but manufacturing industries suffer from insufficient consumer demand and a high interest rate environment. Manufacturing PMI in the U.S. slid this month to 46.9, the lowest index since January, with a reading of 50 separating growth from contraction. "The overall rate of expansion of business activity in the U.S. remained robust in June, consistent with GDP rising at a rate of 1.7% to put second-quarter growth in the region of 2%," commented Chris Williamson, chief business economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence. Against this backdrop, central banks in the United Kingdom, Norway and Switzerland hiked interest rates by a larger-than-expected margin this week, citing insufficient progress in slowing a relentless rise in consumer prices. "We took this decision [in raising interest rates] today because unfortunately, inflation is still way too high. Many people with mortgages and loans are now rightfully worried about what it means for them. But if we don't raise interest rates right now, higher inflation will stay with us for longer," said Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey in a news conference Thursday following BOE's decision to lift rates by another 50-basis points. Inflation in the United Kingdom appears to have infected the labor market and wage-setting to a greater extent than elsewhere, with average earnings rising at a faster pace over the past three months even as payrolls are falling. This economic phenomenon, sometimes called stagflation, led to a protracted recession and price volatility across Western economies in the 1970s. At settlement, NYMEX August West Texas Intermediate futures declined to $69.16 per barrel (bbl), down $0.35, and international crude benchmark Brent for August delivery slipped $0.29 to $73.85 per bbl. NYMEX July ULSD futures pulled back $0.0584 to $2.4071 per gallon, and NYMEX July RBOB futures dropped $0.0329 to $2.5172 per gallon.

Middle East Oil Prices Soar Amid Chinese Trading Frenzy - At a time when global recession concerns have depressed global oil prices to pre-Ukraine war levels, prices of Middle Eastern oil have skyrocketed on soaring demand from Asian refiners in China to Japan as the market takes stock of heavy trading by the industry’s biggest names this month. According to Bloomberg, spot differentials for August-loading Oman crude have jumped to more than $2 a barrel against the Dubai benchmark as of Wednesday, compared with 60-70 cents last week; premiums for Abu Dhabi’s Murban grade also rose - it’s rare for spot differentials to move more than 10-to-20 cents a barrel between days and deals. The soaring regional prices have been underpinned by Asian refiners snapping up barrels over the past couple of days, including China’s Rongsheng Petrochemical, Taiwan’s Formosa Petrochemical and processors in Japan and Thailand, according to traders. A surge in activity on a normally sedate Middle Eastern crude-trading window has also sparked the interest of market participants. For those asking where is all that pent up oil demand out of a post-covid China, here is your answer: Unipec - a unit of China’s top refiner Sinopec - TotalEnergies SE and Shell Plc have been going head-to-head with aggressive bids and offers of Dubai crude partial contracts on the so-called Platts trading window this month, an activity that goes into pricing a benchmark of the same name. As Bloomberg explains, cargoes of crude including Oman, Murban and other Middle Eastern grades can be delivered from seller to buyer following the transaction of a set number of Dubai partials. Shipments are typically 500,000 barrels and Oman is one of the easiest to handle due to its high export volume and large pool of buyers and sellers. So far this month, almost 40 Oman cargoes and two Upper Zakum shipments from the United Arab Emirates have been delivered, according to data compiled by Bloomberg, which is the most activity seen on the Platts window in years. However, the number of Oman shipments equates to almost 70% of the grade’s exported volume in recent months. That’s led traders to consider whether sellers on the Platts window such as Unipec may curtail offers should physical cargoes become scarce. These concerns have contributed to a rise in prices, and may give room for more increases if sellers find it hard to get their hands on window-deliverable cargoes. The sharp increase in sentiment (and price) is a dramatic turnaround from earlier in the month when traders were unsure about the market’s direction following contrasting trading on the window. Companies may also actively buy and sell on the window due to associated positions in Brent and Dubai paper markets. The backwardation in prompt Dubai swaps also strengthened to the widest in six weeks Wednesday, while the premium of London’s Brent to the Middle Eastern benchmark — also known as Brent-Dubai EFS — was narrow at under $1 a barrel. Earlier this month, Saudi Arabia surprised the market with additional output cuts that were followed by a spike in official prices to all regions. Bloomberg notes that last month cargoes of Oman, Upper Zakum and Murban crude for July loading were transacted for Europe and the US, shipments considered unusual, as Asian demand was soft at the time but that has since reversed notably. A US major sold Murban into the US west coast, traders said, while a trading company supplied Upper Zakum to Italy. Western buyers considered spot Middle Eastern crude as affordable due to muted demand from Asia, where many refiners were undergoing seasonally planned maintenance work on plants, according to traders. It now appears that China is fully back in the market.

China Stimulus Fails To Spark A Commodity Price Rally -- Major commodities remained unimpressed by the latest Chinese move to prop up its slowing economic recovery, with crude oil prices rising on Wednesday but returning to losses early on Thursday.On Tuesday, China cut its key lending rates, for the first time in 10 months. China’s one-year loan prime rate (LPR) and the five-year LPR were both lowered by 10 basis points, as the world’s second-largest economy and top crude oil importer looks to bolster the post-lockdown economy showing signs of slower growth this quarter.However, the monetary stimulus was seen as insufficient by the markets, a sentiment reflected in the price of key commodities, including crude oil, copper, and iron ore.Crude oil futures rose on Wednesday as the U.S. dollar declined. Brent Crude prices settled at $77.12, the highest finish in almost a month.“WTI crude prices are finally stabilizing above the $70 level as energy traders anticipate the start of summer should keep demand steady over the next few months. Oil got a boost from a weaker dollar and optimism that the economy will remain strong throughout the summer,” “Oil was getting near the bottom of its recent trading range and it could continue rebounding if the headlines for China remain upbeat.”In early Asia trade on Thursday, Brent was falling again to below $77, as was the U.S. benchmark WTI Crude, which traded at just above $72 per barrel.“The somewhat surprising return of an upward momentum in the previous trading session appeared to have been exhausted, opening the door to some profit-taking selling,” Vanda Insights said in a Thursday note.Copper prices rose following the Chinese monetary easing and amid signs of a tighter copper market in China. The Shanghai copper futures settled at a two-month high of 68,930 yuan ($9,582) per metric ton, Reuters columnist Clyde Russell noted.Iron ore prices, however, declined as traders and analysts believe that the Chinese stimulus so far will not be enough to boost the property sector in China.

Saudi Arabia Signals Openness to Naval Alliance With Iran - Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan met with his Iranian counterpart in Tehran on Saturday and signaled Riyadh is open to a naval alliance with Tehran, an idea recently put forward by Iran’s navy chief.“I would like to point out the importance of cooperation between our two countries concerning the regional security, especially the security of maritime navigation and waterways,” Prince Faisal said at a joint press conference with Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian.Iranian Navy Commander Shahram Irani said earlier this month that Iran was working to form a naval alliance with regional countries, including Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Bahrain, Qatar, and Iraq. The potential maritime coalition goes against US and Israeli plans for the region, which involve forming an anti-Iran alliance between Israel and Gulf Arab states.Amir-Abdollahian said Saturday that the two foreign ministers discussed increasing cooperation in all areas, including security. He stressed Iran’s view that “regional security will be ensured by regional actors only” without external interference, a clear reference to the US.The increased cooperation between Iran and Saudi Arabia comes after a China-brokered deal that saw the two nations normalize diplomatic relations, which were suspended since 2016. “Our relations are based on a clear foundation of full and mutual respect for independence, sovereignty, and non-interference in internal affairs,” Prince Faisal said.

Western Official Says US Goal in Deal With Iran Is to Avoid Israeli Attack - An unnamed Western official speaking to Reuters said one of the US’s main objectives in recently engaging with Iran and reaching some sort of agreement on its nuclear program is to prevent an Israeli attack on the Islamic Republic.“If (the) Iranians miscalculate, the potential for a strong Israeli response is something that we want to avoid,” the official said.So far, the US has denied that any deal with Iran is in the works. But Iran has confirmed indirect negotiations have recently taken place in Oman, and a deluge of media reports have said an agreement between the two sides is close.The Reuters report said the US wants to portray the potential deal as an “understanding” rather than an agreement that would need congressional approval. The majority of Congress is very hawkish on Iran and would likely oppose any formal deal.A potential understanding that’s on the table would involve Iran either ceasing 60% uranium enrichment or vowing not to go above that level in exchange for access to frozen funds or more general sanctions relief. The US is also looking to secure the release of Americans detained in Tehran.While Israel is always sounding the alarm about Iran’s nuclear program, it’s opposed to agreements that would restrict Tehran’s uranium enrichment. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Sunday that Israel is opposed to any “mini agreement” between the US and Iran.Despite Israel’s claims, there’s no sign Iran wants to build a nuclear weapon, and it has never enriched uranium at the 90% level needed for weapons-grade. Iran has also been very cooperative with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) recently, unlike Israel, which has a secret nuclear weapons program and is not a signatory to the Non-Proliferation Treaty.

West Bank Settlers Rampage In Palestinian Villages, Killing 1 And Injuring Dozens - One Palestinian is dead and dozens injured after Jewish settlers went on fiery rampages in several West Bank villages, with Israeli security forces reportedly siding with the assailants and thwarting Palestinian attempts to defend themselves and their property. The attacks were said to be acts of vengeance for the killing of four settlers by Palestinian gunmen. However, those gunman had already been shot to death shortly after they carried out their attack at a roadside restaurant near the Eli settlement. That incident, in turn, followed major Israeli military attacks on the Jenin refugee camp that have killed at least seven including two children. In an escalation not seen in the occupied West Bank since 2006, Israel used helicopter gunships, followed by a drone strike that killed three on Wednesday. Lafi Adeeb, mayor of Turmusaya, told Middle East Eye that hundreds of Jews descended upon her town in a midday onslaught, setting fire to some 30 houses and 60 vehicles as well as agricultural land. “This is genocide, this is a war against us," said Adeeb. "Settlers carrying weapons and canisters full of fuel attack our small village and set fire to houses over the heads of their inhabitants.”

UN Chief Ripped for Leaving Israel Off Child-Killing 'List of Shame' --Human rights defenders on Thursday condemned United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres' omission of Israel from a "list of shame" of countries that kill and injure children during wars and other armed conflict.The Secretary-General Office's annual Children and Armed Conflictreport—which is likely to be released publicly on June 30, according to one U.N. official—reportedly leaves Israel off the list of grave violators who harm children, despite Israeli forces' killing and wounding over 1,000 Palestinian minors over the past two years. The report states that 42 Palestinian children were killed and 933 others wounded by Israeli forces in 2022 alone.Yet, according to one journalist who saw the report, Guterres noted "a meaningful decrease in the number of children killed by Israeli forces, including by airstrikes," in 2022.That's because Israel conducted a major bombing campaign against Gaza in 2021 in which 67 children were among the 256 Palestinians killed. The report says Israeli forces killed a total of 78 children in 2021.Guterres did say that "I remain deeply concerned by the number of children killed and maimed by Israeli forces" and by Israel's "use of live ammunition during law enforcement operations" as well "the persistent lack of accountability for these violations."Noting that 2022 was the deadliest year for Palestinian children in the West Bank in 15 years, Jo Becker, advocacy director for children at Human Rights Watch, said Guterres' "unwillingness year after year to hold Israeli forces accountable for their grave violations against children has backfired, only emboldening Israeli forces to use unlawful lethal force against Palestinian children.""From 2015-2020, the U.N. attributed over 6,700 child casualties to Israeli forces. He has just verified 975 more in 2022. Yet he still omits Israel from his 'list of shame,'" Becker tweeted.Criticism of the Children in Armed Conflict report comes after seven Palestinians including two children—Ahmed Youssef Saqr and Sadeel Ghassan Naghniyeh Turkman, both 15 years old—died during and after a Monday raid by Israeli troops on the Jenin refugee camp in the illegally occupied West Bank. Turkman, who was shot in the head while recording the raid, succumbed to her injuries on Wednesday.Another Palestinian child, 15-year-old Ashraf Morad Mahmoud Al-Sa'di, was killed Wednesday in an Israeli drone strike on a vehicle in which he was traveling north of Jenin, according to the charity Defense for Children International-Palestine.Palestinian journalist Leila Warah discussed the youths' killings in a video for Mondoweiss:

Syria and the Arab League: The Reunification of the Arab Family -- On June 20, 2023, the Valdai Club held an expert discussion, titled “Syria: Halfway Home,” dedicated to the country’s return to the Arab League after twelve years. The moderator of the discussion, Andrey Sushentsov, programme director of the Valdai Club, noted that the decision taken in May by the Arab League Council to resume Syria’s suspended membership in the organisation looks like a significant diplomatic victory for Damascus.Bashar al-Jaafari, Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary of the Syrian Arab Republic to the Russian Federation, stressed that Syria has never completely left the Arab League and now it is only concerned with resuming its activities in the organisation. Expressing gratitude to Russia for the assistance it provided to the Syrian Arab Republic from the very beginning of the crisis, the ambassador called Russian-Syrian relations an example of partnership and brotherhood. Ramzy Ezzeldin Ramzy, UN Deputy Special Envoy for Syria (2014-2019), added that no one in the Arab world believed that Syria had truly abandoned the Arab family. He noted with joy that the issue had finally been resolved and expressed his hope that in the future, the Arab League would not try to ostracize any of its members. Analysing the role of the Arab states in resolving the crisis, the diplomat pointed out that for a long time they had tried to distance themselves from this process, but gradually realized that the situation should not be left to chance. Their priorities now, according to Ramzy, include the return of refugees, the fight against terrorism and the reconstruction of the country.Maria Khodynskaya-Golenishcheva, Professor at the Department of Applied Analysis of International Problems of the Moscow State Institute of International Relations (MGIMO University) and Deputy Director of the Foreign Policy Planning Department of the Russian Foreign Ministry, called the return of Syria to the Arab League a big event, including from the standpoint of geopolitics. In her opinion, what is happening illustrates centripetal tendencies within the Arab community, and within the framework of the civilizational approach adopted in the updated Foreign Policy Concept of Russia. Centripetal tendencies within civilizational communities are a positive factor from the point of view of the prospects for the formation of a global world order. The more consolidated civilizational communities are, the more opportunities they will have to speak with one voice and express the aspirations of their peoples, and the more significant their contribution to the formation of a multipolar system will be, Khodynskaya-Golenishcheva believes. Igor Matveev, senior researcher at the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences, considers what is happening to be the return of historical justice. “The Syrian people have shown resilience,” the expert believes. “It was primarily because of that resilience that what happened, happened.” He considers the stalwart and consistent defence of the interests of the country to be an important element. In the context of the normalisation of Syria's relations with its neighbours, Matveev pointed to the increasing talk of creating a regional platform for the reconstruction of Syria, and this platform should not necessarily be limited to the Arab world.

Russia Says Ukraine Planning Strikes in Crimea With HIMARS and Storm Shadows - Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu said Tuesday that the Russian military has information that shows Ukraine is plotting to attack Crimea with US-provided HIMARS rocket systems and British-provided Storm Shadow cruise missiles.“According to our data, the leadership of the Ukrainian armed forces is planning to deliver strikes on the territory of the Russian Federation, including Crimea, with HIMARS and Storm Shadow missiles,” Shoigu said.The Russian defense minister warned that such strikes would make the US and Britain direct parties to the conflict and warned of a potential response.“The use of these missiles outside the zone of our special military operation would mean that the United States and Britain would be fully dragged into the conflict and would entail immediate strikes on decision-making centers in Ukraine,” he said. While the Biden administration has said it doesn’t want Ukraine using US-provided weapons on Russian territory, the restriction doesn’t apply to Crimea, which Russia has controlled since 2014. Ukraine and its Western backers don’t recognize the peninsula as Russian territory.National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan reiterated the US position last month. “We have not placed limitations on Ukraine being able to strike on its territory within its internationally recognized borders,” he told CNN. “What we have said is that we will not enable Ukraine with US systems, Western systems, to attack Russia. And we believe Crimea is Ukraine.”Sullivan’s comments drew protest from Moscow as Crimea is a major red line for Russian President Vladimir Putin, something Secretary of State Antony Blinken has acknowledged. But as the war drags on, the Biden administration is less and less concerned about escalating the conflict.

Ukraine Strike Damages Bridge Connecting Crimea to Kherson - Russian officials said Thursday that a bridge in northern Crimea that connects to Russian-controlled areas of Ukraine’s Kherson Oblast was damaged by a Ukrainian missile strike.No casualties were reported in the strike, and Vladimir Saldo, the Russian-installed acting governor of Kherson, said the damage to the bridge should be repaired within a few days. Saldo also said the damage will inconvenience local civilians but would not impact Russia’s war effort.“This destruction that the Kiev regime’s missile strike has caused will not change the course of the special military operation. It will not affect it in any way,” he said, according to Russia’s TASS news agency.Saldo said he suspected Ukraine used British-provided Storm Shadow cruise missiles in the strike, although Russia’s Investigative Committee later said missile fragments with French markings were found. At this point, the Russian authorities have not identified the missiles and just said four were used in the strike.The attack on the bridge came a few days after Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu said the Russian military had information that Ukraine was plotting strikes in Crimea using Storm Shadow missiles or US-provided HIMARS rocket systems. Shoigu warned that Russia could respond to such strikes by targeting “decision-making” centers in Ukraine.

Putin Shows African Leaders Draft Treaty on Ukrainian Neutrality from March 2022 - Russian President Vladimir Putin on Saturday met with African leaders in St. Petersburg and displayed a document that he said was a draft treaty on Ukrainian neutrality that was drawn up during negotiations in Istanbul in March 2022.“As you know, a string of talks between Russia and Ukraine took place in Turkey so as to work out both the confidence-building measures you mentioned and to draw up the text of the agreement,” Putin told the African delegation, according to TASS.“We did not discuss with the Ukrainian side that this treaty would be classified, but we have never presented it, nor commented on it. This draft agreement was initialed by the head of the Kiev negotiation team. He put his signature there. Here it is,” he added.According to RT, the treaty, titled “Permanent Neutrality and Security Guarantees for Ukraine,” required Ukraine to enshrine “permanent neutrality” in its constitution. The US, Britain, Russia, China, and France are listed as guarantors. Since the treaty was a draft, it indicates that it wasn’t finalized and more details needed to be worked out.Putin’s claim reflects an article published in Foreign Affairs last year that cited multiple former senior US officials who said Russia and Ukraine tentatively agreed on a peace deal in April 2022. They said the agreement would have involved a Ukrainian promise not to join NATO in exchange for a Russian withdrawal to the pre-invasion lines, and Ukraine would have received security guarantees from several countries.Russian and Ukrainian officials met face-to-face in Istanbul on March 29, 2022, which was followed up withvirtual consultations. After the meeting, Russia’s lead negotiator described the talks as “constructive,” and the Russian Defense Ministry announced it would “drastically” reduce military activity near the northern cities of Kyiv and Chernihiv, which led to a full Russian withdrawal from the north.Putin said after the Russian withdrawal, Ukraine abandoned the treaty. “After we pulled our troops away from Kiev — as we had promised to do — the Kiev authorities … tossed [their commitments] into the dustbin of history,” he said. “They abandoned everything.”

US regrets Mali's request for UN peacekeepers to leave country (Reuters) -The United States regrets a decision by Mali's interim military authorities to ask a United Nations peacekeeping force to leave the country, the State Department said on Monday, calling for an "orderly and responsible" drawdown of the mission. Mali's Foreign Minister Abdoulaye Diop made the request during a U.N. Security Council meeting on Friday, citing a "crisis of confidence" between Malian authorities and the decade-long U.N. mission known as MINUSMA.

Greece migrant boat disaster: More than 300 Pakistanis dead in Mediterranean tragedy, official says — More than 300 Pakistani nationals have been killed in the sinking of a overcrowded fishing trawler off the coast of Greece, the latest tragedy to expose the refugee crisis confronting the European Union as tens of thousands seek sanctuary from war, persecution and poverty. The chairman of of Pakistan’s Senate, Muhammad Sadiq Sanjrani, disclosed the numbers in a statement Sunday, sending condolences to grieving families of the dead. “Our thoughts and prayers are with you, and we pray that the departed souls find eternal peace,” Sanjrani said. “This devastating incident underscores the urgent need to address and condemn the abhorrent act of illegal human trafficking.” Greek authorities have yet to confirm Pakistan’s death toll. Pakistan is in the midst of its worst economic crisis in decades, with efforts to secure a financial lifeline from the International Monetary Fund complicated by political turmoil in the country. Growth has stalled and inflation has soared in the South Asian country of 220 million over the past year. The country has struggled to import essential food products, leading to deadly stampedes at distribution centers. The number of Pakistanis traversing dangerous routes to Europe in search of a better future has reverberated through the nation, prompting Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif to declare Monday a national day of mourning for those who died in the boat’s sinking. In a tweet Sunday, he ordered a “high-level inquiry” into the incident. “I assure the nation that those found negligent towards their duty will be held to account. Responsibility will be fixed after the inquiry and heads will roll,” Sharif wrote.

Timeline: How did the Greek coast guard respond to the migrant boat tragedy? | Euronews -- A timeline of events that led up to one of the worst shipwrecks in recent Mediterranean history as hundreds of migrants are still missing off the coast of Greece.Some 200 people in the Greek port city of Piraeus marched to the offices of European border agency FRONTEX and the Hellenic Guard on Sunday, protesting their handling of last week's deadly shipwreck off the coast of Pylos. There are mounting questions as to whether the Greek coastguard should have intervened earlier to help get the migrants onboard to safety.There are still more questions than answers about what led up to one of the worst shipwrecks in recent Mediterranean history. Critics say the Greek coastguard and Frontex should have intervened earlierUp to 750 men, women and children from Syria, Egypt, the Palestinian territories and Pakistan were on board the vessel trying to reach Europe when it sank.Below is a timeline of events based on reports from Greek authorities, a commercial ship, and activists who said they were in touch with passengers. They describe sequences of events that at times converge, but also differ in key ways.

Two episodes at sea: The submersible Titan and hundreds of refugees drowned in the Mediterranean - The drama involving the submersible Titan, missing in the North Atlantic about 435 miles south of St. John’s, Newfoundland since Sunday, is being followed by millions worldwide. The vessel’s five passengers undertook the voyage to view the wreckage of the Titanic, the ocean liner that sank in April 1912 with some 1,500 victims, which lies 12,500 feet (3,800 meters) beneath the surface. It is inevitable that such an event, in which there is a race against time and the elements, should attract the interest and concern of tens of millions. People deeply and instinctively feel for those trapped in life-threatening conditions and, in the present case, will continue to hope against hope that the Titan’s passengers can be extracted from their horrible situation. Even if the submersible Titan is located, efforts to save lives will be hindered by the fact that virtually no “rescuing capabilities” presently exist, at least in government hands. A Forbes comment points out, astonishingly, that as “the global market for extreme tourist adventures has emerged,” submarine rescue has now become “a largely privatized endeavor” and “most governments have little to offer the missing mariners if they are trapped underwater.” The decline in America’s rescue capabilities “has been dramatic. In 1960, the U.S. Navy boasted nine dedicated submarine rescue ships and two fleet tugs fitted out for undersea rescue work. Today, the service lacks a single dedicated undersea rescue vessel.” Once again, America’s vast military, security and “anti-terror” apparatus only proves capable of ending lives, not saving them. The present tragedy does not cast “extreme tourism” in a positive light. Desiring to see the five individuals alive and well does not signify approving of their foolhardy “adventures.” All too often, individuals with too much money, too much time on their hands, too little brains in their heads and ugly, overweening hubris put their own and other people’s lives at risk. Bezos, Branson, Musk and their ilk are parasites, of no social use to anyone.The nonstop media coverage of the North Atlantic episode is vastly different from the treatment devoted to last week’s terrible tragedy off the Greek coast. There the individuals, Pakistanis, Egyptians, Syrians, Afghans and Palestinians, died for the most part nameless, uncelebrated. It is unlikely that some of them will ever be identified. Another harsh irony lies in the fact that two wealthy Pakistanis are passengers on the Titan, while hundreds of impoverished Pakistani men, women and children succumbed in the Mediterranean, leading to outrage and protests in their native country. Far from facilitating rescue efforts, the various European governments, Greece’s centrally, are directly responsible for the conditions that led to the mass drowning. Officials lied about and covered up their role and slandered the dead and injured. The surviving refugees were thrown into a filthy warehouse facility. Media personalities could hardly stay awake recounting the facts. Large-scale death is now business as usual for these people. The clear implication of the reporting was that the suffering refugees had brought their fate on themselves. The reality of “fortress Europe,” like that of “walled-in America,” is unspeakable official inhumanity. Saving the hundreds on board the fishing vessel near Greece, once they were clearly in jeopardy, would have been so much easier than rescuing a vessel possibly resting on the bottom of the sea—for any government or naval force that desired to do so. It’s legitimate to raise the question whether, given the homicidal record of the European governments involved, the refugees’ deaths may have been deliberately facilitated, as a means of setting an example and intimidating others. Of course, the entire tragedy could have been avoided if the fleeing people had simply been allowed, as they should have been, to move with dignity and without obstruction from one continent or country to another. Their mass flight has largely been precipitated by the imperialist wars and other operations carried out by the Western powers, the very regimes now presiding over their deaths at sea.

Activists say the human rights movement is failing - Dissidents and human rights campaigner sat the annual Oslo Freedom Forum last week implored each other to keep the faith in their quest to end tyranny. They admitted, however, that they were running short on hope amid the rise of increasingly nimble, tech-savvy adversaries. “The state of the modern human rights movement is rather dire,” said Ramy Yaacoub, who works on Middle East issues for the Open Society Foundations, a grant-making network founded by liberal billionaire financier George Soros. “Back in the day, human rights groups were ahead of the curve. But autocratic regimes have learned from that. They’re investing in their tactics, and they’re coordinating.” Conversations with more than a dozen attendees last week suggest that a global movement that flowered post-World War II, and saw major victories amid the fall of the Soviet Union, now sees itself at a crossroads.If activists fail to find new methods, they say, dictators are likely to grow even more emboldened.For Yaacoub and 1,400 others gathered at the forum, the last 15 years have been marked by far more failures than successes. Even what seemed like initial victories often morphed into losses. Just a few years ago, for instance,democracy campaigners in Sudan celebrated the ouster of a dictator; today, military leaders who took advantage of that moment have plunged the country back into war.“We can’t even point to Tunisia anymore,” bemoaned Andrea Prasow, executive director of The Freedom Initiative, referring to the north African country’s return to autocracy after years of being the sole democratic success of the Arab Spring.Prasow said she’s having a harder time convincing funders to support the work of her organization, which focuses heavily on freeing political prisoners, as positive results feel too few and far between. “It’s a long game,” she tries to explain to them.The advocates have no intention of abandoning their collective and individual fights. But the conversation here in Oslo centered on the need to rethink the human rights movement’s actions and tools at a moment when autocracy has gained strength worldwide and technology offers both promise and peril. They know that while autocratic regimes are refining their methods, the countries that say they support human rights, such as the United States, can be unreliable when their own interests are at stake.

Inflation Shocker in the UK: Core CPI Spikes to 30-Year High, Driven by Spike in Services, even as Motor Fuel Prices Plunge by Wolf Richter - Inflation is infamous for its head-fakes and has a tendency to dish out one nasty surprise after another – at least for observers that keep expecting that inflation will somehow go down on its own. Today, the inflation shocker occurred in the UK. And this is a warning for all economies: inflation has gotten solidly entrenched in services, and is getting even worse. Core CPI spiked month-to-month by a scary 0.8% in May, which translates into an annualized spike of 10%, according to data from the UK Office of National Statistics (ONS) today. Year-over-year, core CPI spiked by 7.1%, the worst since March 1992. Core CPI excludes energy, food, alcohol, and tobacco. It has now left in the dust the false-hope declines that started in November. Services CPI spiked by 0.8% in May from April (10% annualized) powered by the spikes in routine maintenance +1.2%, transportation services +3.3%, including air fares +20%, recreational and cultural services +1.1%, insurance +1.1%. Housing and household services rose “only” 0.3% for the month (but was up 7.3% year-over-year). Year-over-year, the service CPI spiked by 7.4% in May. Inflation in services is notoriously hard to stamp out. And it’s where all heck has now broken loose – in what is a global phenomenon. Food inflation rages at a slightly less horrible pace. The CPI for food and non-alcoholic beverages spiked by 0.9% in May from April (11% annualized), which is terrible, but it’s less terrible than in prior months. Bread and cereal: +0.8%; fish +1.8%; oils and fats +0.9%; vegetables +2.1%; sugar, jam, syrups, chocolate, and confectionary +1.7%; mineral water 1.1%. But coffee, tea, and cocoa fell 1.6% month-to-month; fruit and meat rose “only” 0.4%; and milk, cheese, and eggs rose “only” 0.5% (that’s still 6.2% annualized). Year-over-year, the CPI for food soared by 18.4% in May, and while horrible, it was down from 19.1% in April and from 19.2% in March, the worst since 1977, according to the ONS’s “indicative modelled estimates” (its actual CPI data don’t go back that far). But don’t blame Brexit for food inflation: there are countries in Europe with worse food inflation, including 34% in Hungary. In Germany, which didn’t have a Dexit or whatever, food inflation was 14.9% in May. But motor fuel prices plunged by 13.1% year-over-year, after having spiked by as much as 44% last summer. Overall CPI jumped 8.7% in May year-over-year, same as in April, and by 0.7% month-over-month (8.7% annualized), despite the plunge in motor fuels. Overall inflation had peaked at 11.1% in October. This is the case everywhere globally: Plunging energy costs have pulled down overall inflation indices, even as the indices for underlying inflation, such as core CPI and services CPI, continue to rage near or at multi-decade worst levels. This scenario is now playing out wonderfully in the US and in the Eurozone:

BOE Shocks Markets With Surprise 50bps Rate Hike In Crusade Against Red Hot Inflation -- Extending Thursday's central bank tightening barrage, which saw rate hikes from the likes of Switzerland, Norway and Turkey, moments ago the BOE shocked markets with a bigger-than-expected half-point rise in the interest rates to 5%, the 13th consecutive rate hike of the current cycle and the highest level since 2008, as the BOE has stepped up its fight against sticky high inflation. Voting seven to two in favor of the larger-than-expected increase (Dinghra and outgoing member Tenreyro voted for unchanged and nobody voted for a 25bps hike), the central bank’s Monetary Policy Committee said it was responding to “material news” in recent economic data that showed worse inflationary pressures in the UK economy. As noted above, the two dissents on the BOE’s rate-setting committee were external members Silvana Tenreyro, in her last meeting, and Swati Dhingra. They argued that the existing rate rises have yet to impact the economy fully and falling energy prices will push inflation below target by the end of the forecast horizon. The BoE hopes its decisive move demonstrates determination to get a grip on rapidly rising prices. In a letter to the chancellor explaining the move, governor Andrew Bailey said: “Bringing inflation down is our absolute priority.” Justifying the move, the MPC said: “There has been significant upside news in recent data that indicates more persistence in the inflation process.” The BoE policymakers led by governor Andrew Bailey also reiterated earlier guidance pointing toward higher rates warning that "if there were to be evidence of more persistent pressures, then further tightening in monetary policy would be required" and said nothing to rein in market expectations for rates peaking around 6% by early next year, which would be the highest in over two decades. “If there were to be evidence of more persistent pressures, then further tightening in monetary policy would be required,” Bailey wrote in a letter to Chancellor of the Exchequer Jeremy Hunt. He added: “Bringing inflation down is our absolute priority. The MPC will do what is necessary to return inflation to the 2% target.” The decision announced Thursday suggests UK borrowing costs could keep rising through the summer even after the US Federal Reserved paused its tightening spree. Britain remains an outlier in the Group of Seven nations, with consumer prices rising 8.7% in May, four times the BOE’s 2% target and more than double the rate in the US, while core CPI hit a new 31-year high.