week ending Nov 25

The Fed’s balance sheet isn’t so boring after all - FT Alphaville - Like “watching paint dry”, but if the paint was the US banking system…All the will-they-or-won’t-they chatter about December rate hikes has taken the spotlight another important Federal Reserve policy tool: Balance sheet run-off. This process is meant to be like “watching paint dry” etc— at least compared to the Bank of England’s misadventures with gilt sales. And it is understandable that short-term rates above 5 per cent (!!) are front of mind for investors. But aggressive shrinkage in the Fed’s balance sheet did create the conditions for the mess that hit repo markets four years ago. For now, at least, Goldman Sachs analysts don’t think there’s much to worry about. They predict the Fed will stop shrinking its balance sheet before bank reserves become scarce enough to cause a market mess. From a Sunday note that was just made public: The FOMC will likely aim to stop balance sheet normalization when bank reserves go from “abundant” to “ample”—that is, when changes in the supply of reserves have a real but modest effect on short-term rates. We expect the FOMC to begin considering changes to the speed of run-off around 2024Q3, to slow the pace in 2024Q4, and to finish run-off in 2025Q1. The determining factor for the Fed’s timeline will probably be the amount of reserves available to banks. To oversimplify a bit, when the Fed buys bonds it creates reserves at US banks, and bank reserves shrink when the Fed’s balance sheet does. But GS points out that most of the bank-reserve shrinkage happened last year. This year, more of that has drained from balances at the Fed’s reverse repo facility: GS explains, with our emphasis: . . . reserve balances have been relatively flat in 2023, and the Fed’s liabilities declined largely because of lower RRP use. RRP balances declined by over $1.5tn to $936bn this year, as increased Treasury bill issuance and higher demand for funding by banks pushed money market funds away from the facility. Looking ahead, we expect RRP balances to continue declining and reach near-zero levels in 2024 as these dynamics continue. Lower RRP balances account for the bulk of the decline in the Fed’s liabilities that we expect over the next year In other words, bank liquidity is OK on aggregate, at least. There are plenty of caveats to this. Reserves are still more concentrated at certain banks (we would guess the big ones) than they were before the Covid-19 pandemic, and bank borrowing from Federal Home Loan Banks has picked up a bit recently after a spike during the regional-bank crisis earlier this year: And borrowing from the Fed’s BTFP facility has remained robust, even though banks haven’t done much discount-window borrowing. (If we remember correctly, the “other credit extensions” category is related to wrapping up banks that failed or were acquired earlier this year): Banks haven’t had to access the standing repo facility though, which is probably a good thing. Anyway, GS echoes some Fed economists and academics to estimate that the US central bank will stop balance-sheet roll-off when reserves make up 12 to 13 per cent of bank assets. They give their full projected timeline below: Our model suggests that short-term rates will start becoming more sensitive to changes in reserves around 2024Q3, and we expect the FOMC to begin considering changes to the speed of run-off at that point and then to slow the pace of balance sheet reduction in 2024Q4 by cutting the monthly run-off caps in half from $60bn to $30bn for Treasury securities and $35bn to $17.5bn for MBS securities. We expect run-off to finish in 2025Q1, when bank reserves are 12-13% of bank assets (vs. 14% currently), or roughly $2.9tn (vs. $3.3tn currently), and the Fed’s balance sheet is around 22% of GDP (vs. around 30% currently and 18% in 2019). As run-off progresses, we expect the spread of the fed funds rate to the IORB rate to rise by 5-10bp over the next year, from -7bp currently. There are risks, of course. There’s the uneven distribution of reserves highlighted above, which means smaller and midsized banks could start feeling strain and pushing up repo rates before their larger peers. Banks have more options for funding than other market participants (the standing repo facility, the discount window, the BTFP, etc). But that doesn’t necessarily mean the banks will use them even when needed(see SVB and the discount window).And of course, there’s always the issue of good old supply and demand: : The key risk to our forecast is that the increased supply of debt that we expect in 2024 causes intermediation bottlenecks in the Treasury market that lead the Fed to stop run-off earlier.

FOMC Minutes: "All participants agreed that the Committee was in a position to proceed carefully" -- From the Fed: Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, October 31–November 1, 2023. Excerpt: Participants noted that real GDP had expanded at an unexpectedly strong pace in the third quarter, boosted by a surge in consumer spending. Nevertheless, participants judged that aggregate demand and aggregate supply continued to come into better balance, as a result of the current restrictive stance of monetary policy and the continued normalization of aggregate supply conditions. Participants assessed that while labor market conditions remained tight, they had eased since earlier in the year, partly as a result of recent increases in labor supply. Participants judged that the current stance of monetary policy was restrictive and was putting downward pressure on economic activity and inflation. In addition, they noted that financial conditions had tightened significantly in recent months. Participants noted that inflation had moderated over the past year but stressed that current inflation remained unacceptably high and well above the Committee's longer-run goal of 2 percent. They also stressed that further evidence would be required for them to be confident that inflation was clearly on a path to the Committee's 2 percent objective. Participants continued to view a period of below-potential growth in real GDP and some further softening in labor market conditions as likely to be needed to reduce inflation pressures sufficiently to return inflation to 2 percent over time. ... In discussing the policy outlook, participants continued to judge that it was critical that the stance of monetary policy be kept sufficiently restrictive to return inflation to the Committee's 2 percent objective over time. All participants agreed that the Committee was in a position to proceed carefully and that policy decisions at every meeting would continue to be based on the totality of incoming information and its implications for the economic outlook as well as the balance of risks. Participants noted that further tightening of monetary policy would be appropriate if incoming information indicated that progress toward the Committee's inflation objective was insufficient. Participants expected that the data arriving in coming months would help clarify the extent to which the disinflation process was continuing, aggregate demand was moderating in the face of tighter financial and credit conditions, and labor markets were reaching a better balance between demand and supply. Participants noted the importance of continuing to communicate clearly about the Committee's data-dependent approach and its firm commitment to bring inflation down to 2 percent. All participants judged that it would be appropriate for policy to remain at a restrictive stance for some time until inflation is clearly moving down sustainably toward the Committee's objective. Participants also observed that the continuing process of reducing the size of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet was an important part of the overall approach to achieving their macroeconomic objectives. A few participants noted that the process of balance sheet runoff could continue for some time, even after the Committee begins to reduce the target range for the federal funds rate. Several participants commented on the recent decline in the use of the ON RRP facility, noting that the use of the facility had been responsive to market conditions.

Our Wall Street Crybabies Want the Fed to Stop QT, they Wag the Drop in Overnight RRPs that’ll Blow up the Banks or Whatever - This crybaby stuff is just funny. So let’s have a look. By Wolf Richter -- What we can loosely call our spoiled-rotten Wall Street crybabies – hedge fund magicians, investment bankers, bond-fund gurus, and what not – that got big and fat off the Fed’s free money, are now whining and crying and fearmongering about the Fed’s QT. For now, they’ve homed in on the Fed’s Overnight Reverse Repurchase agreements (ON RRPs) that were at $2.3 trillion this spring and are now down to $935 billion and will go to near $0, as QT is draining liquidity from the system. And they’re saying the banks – the banks, OMG!!! – or somebody will run out of liquidity if these RRPs are drained further and the financial system will implode or whatever, and the Fed MUST STOP QT NOW. Financial reporters eagerly pick up this manipulative BS and run with it, instead of pushing back, and instead of looking at what RRPs actually are, and instead of looking at a long-term chart of RRPs, where they normally are – namely at or near $0. So here they are, and we’ll get into the details in a moment. So this is the long-term chart of RRPs, and we’ll get into how RRPs are used by money market funds (MMFs); it’s where MMFs put their excess cash. Note how the RRP balances rose from near-$0 during the final stretches of both bouts of QE – first in late 2013 and then again in March 2021 when the financial system was creaking under excess liquidity. And now they’re heading back to this near-$0 level, which is the normal level for RRPs. In a moment, we’ll look at a chart of “reserves” at the Fed, which is where banks put their excess cash, and those reserves have risen this year to $3.39 trillion. With these RRPs, the Fed takes in cash against collateral (Treasury securities). RRPs are a liability on the Fed’s balance sheet – amounts the Fed owes its counterparties which are mostly MMFs, but also government-sponsored enterprises (Federal Home Loan Banks, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, etc.), and occasionally banks. These counterparties use RRPs to park their extra cash risk-free at the Fed, and the Fed pays them 5.3% in interest since the last rate hike. This 5.3% is less than what the Fed pays banks on their reserve balances (5.4%), so banks don’t use RRPs much and not for long, though they might at the end of the quarter for regulatory window dressing. They normally use their reserve accounts at the Fed to park their extra cash because they earn more than RRPs, and because they’re more liquid than RRPs. The dropping RRP balances mean that money market funds are shifting cash from RRPs into T-bills. The primary T-bills targeted by MMFs are at the short end, with maturities of up to 3 months, which are now paying over 5.5% in yield, over 20 basis points higher than RRPs (5.3%). So that makes sense, and MMF holders are making a little more yield as well. That’s how it should be. RRPs are a sign of massive excess liquidity in the system; they’re an outlet created by the Fed to absorb this excess liquidity, and when the system begins its long slow trip back to something more normal under QT, this cash starts draining back out of the Fed’s RRPs into T-bills, which is how it should be. The Fed started paying interest on RRPs in the spring of 2021, at first 0.05% APR and then 0.1% APR, minuscule amounts of interest but they worked. Back then, it’s policy rates were still near-0%, and it was still perpetrating QE even as inflation had begun to rage. At the time there was so much liquidity in the financial system, chasing after everything including T-bills by MMFs that were awash in cash, that T-bill yields were dipping into the negative. MMFs that heavily invest in T-bills are threatened by negative yields; they could cause the MMFs to “break the buck” where the Net Asset Value of the fund drops below $1, which could trigger a run on the fund, followed by forced selling by the fund, the collapse of a fund, contagion from there, etc., etc., the financial panic routine. MMFs flocked to RRPs because 0.05% and then 0.1% was better than T-bills that had 0% or negative yields. And T-bill yields stayed above 0%. By August 2021, RRPs had shot past $1 trillion. RRPs as an outlet for excess liquidity stopped the threat to MMFs that 0% or negative T-bill yields had posed. Starting with the rate hike in March 2022, the Fed also hiked the rates it paid on RRPs. By May 2022, RRPs hit $2 trillion. In addition, MMFs switched some of their cash that they need for liquidity reasons from their bank accounts to RRPs, since banks paid 0% interest. This shift from banks to RRPs via the MMFs caused the banks’ reserve balances to fall starting when QE ended. More in a moment. On October 31, MMFs were counterparty to $1.084 trillion in RRPs, according to the government’s Office of Financial Research which releases RRP balances by MMF provider on a monthly basis. Total RRP balances on October 31 of $1.137 trillion indicate that only $53 billion of RRPs were from counterparties other than MMFs. In other words, MMFs accounted for over 95% of overnight RRPs. The biggest providers of money market funds lead the list: Fidelity’s funds with $310 billion; Vanguard’s funds with $114 billion; JP Morgan’s funds with $102 billion; and Blackrock’s funds with $77 billion. Note how they had $0 or near$) RRPs before April 2021:

National Activity Index Unexpectedly Tumbled In October, Chicago Fed - Led by declines in production-related indicators, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) tumbled to -0.49 (below 0 meaning below-trend growth), well below expectations of 0.0 and September's -0.02 print. Only 24 of the 85 individual indicators made positive contributions to the CFNAI in October, while 61 made negative contributions. The overall trend of CFNAI is clear...The slump was broad-based with all four broad categories of indicators used to construct the index decreased from September, and all four categories made negative contributions in October.

• Production-related indicators contributed –0.33 to the CFNAI in October, down from –0.04 in September.
• The contribution of the sales, orders, and inventories category to the CFNAI edged down to –0.04 in October from a neutral value in September.
• Employment-related indicators contributed –0.10 to the CFNAI in October, down from +0.01 in September.
• The contribution of the personal consumption and housing category to the CFNAI ticked down to –0.02 in October from a neutral value in September.

“Leading Economic Index” Predicts Recession for Early 2024, after Having Predicted a Recession for Late 2022, Early 2023, Mid-2023, and Late 2023 by Wolf Richter -Every month, the Conference Board publishes its “Leading Economic Index” (LEI), which is a leading indicator for turning points in the business cycle and is designed to predict business-cycle recessions. It predicted the 2001 recession and the Great Recession. It didn’t predict the pandemic recession because that wasn’t a business-cycle recession but a pandemic with a lockdown that suddenly shut parts of the economy down; instead of predicting it, it reacted simultaneously with it, which is how it should have reacted. So its track record is good. We here at WOLF STREET have been on recession watch since about mid-2022, and we’re still watching, and so this is fascinating and hilarious. Today’s LEI predicts a recession in the “near term.”“The Conference Board expects elevated inflation, high interest rates, and contracting consumer spending—due to depleting pandemic saving and mandatory student loan repayments—to tip the US economy into a very short recession,” said the report for October 2023, released today.“The US LEI trajectory remained negative, and its six- and twelve-month growth rates also held in negative territory in October,” the report for October 2023 said.“Among the leading indicators, deteriorating consumers’ expectations for business conditions, lower ISM® Index of New Orders, falling equities, and tighter credit conditions drove the index’s most recent decline,” the report for October 2023 said.For the whole year of 2024, it forecasts “that real GDP will expand by just 0.8 percent.” The 10 components of the LEI: Average weekly hours in manufacturing; Average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance; Manufacturers’ new orders for consumer goods and materials; ISM® Index of New Orders; Manufacturers’ new orders for nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft orders; Building permits for new private housing units; S&P 500® Index of Stock Prices; Leading Credit Index™; Interest rate spread (10-year Treasury bonds less federal funds rate); Average consumer expectations for business conditions. But the LEI predicted a recession for late-2022, early 2023, mid-2023, and late-2023. Recession to start late 2022 or early 2023, first outlined in the report for August 2022. “The US LEI declined for a sixth consecutive month potentially signaling a recession,” it said in the report for August 2022. And it added: “Economic activity will continue slowing more broadly throughout the US economy and is likely to contract.” And, “The Conference Board projects a recession in the coming quarters.” After the report for August 2022, there came a litany of monthly recession predictions that moved the coming recession from late 2022 across all of 2023 to finally 2024. For example: [6 predictions] And there’s still no recession. None of these recessions that were forecast to ply the land since late 2022 have actually occurred. On the contrary, “Real” GDP” (GDP adjusted for inflation) jumped by an annualized rate of 4.9% in Q3 from Q2, following the 2.1% increase in Q2 and the 2.2% increase in Q1. Obviously, as I said when the red-hot GDP data was released, “as we can see from the chart, big increases are generally followed by smaller increases, or sometimes quarter-to-quarter dips. And that history of quarter-to-quarter changes alone, without knowing anything about Q4 yet, would lead us to expect a smaller increase in Q4. That doesn’t mean the economy suddenly hit an air pocket, but that growth reverts to trend.” The predicted recession-Q3 turned out to be one heck of a good quarter, even if future revisions knock off a few chunks of the 4.9% growth. And if Q4 growth comes in at 1% or 2% (2% growth is roughly the longer-run average of the US economy), we’ll still condemned to wait for that recession.We will get a business-cycle recession eventually because there always is a business-cycle recession eventually because it’s part of the business cycle. The question is when.Why predictive models that used to work well are failing spectacularly with their recession predictions in this crazy economy will be the topic of a future brainstorming article here when I can wrap my brains halfway around it.

America’s Runaway Debt Scenario: $1,000,000,000,000 In Interest - The U.S. federal government has borrowed so much money that, over the past year, it has had to spend one-fifth of all the money it collected just on debt interest—which came to almost $880 billion. Americans paid some $450 billion less in income taxes for the year, trapping the government in the pincers of a fiscal crunch. The country teeters on the brink of a debt spiral that could devolve into a fiscal crisis or hyperinflation, several economists told The Epoch Times. “The problem is serious because, any way you cut it, taxpayers are paying interest on the mountain of debt that has been accumulated,” said Steve Hanke, a professor of applied economics at Johns Hopkins University. “In short, they are paying something for nothing.” Congress must dramatically curb deficit spending to instill confidence in investors—who seem to be losing faith in America’s ability to satisfy its obligations, some suggest. “Deficit spending by the U.S. government is in a runaway scenario," said Mark Thornton, a senior fellow at the classical liberal Mises Institute. "The amount of money that they're borrowing is at extremely elevated levels and there doesn’t seem to be any regulation or even mild attempts to curb the spending side of the fiscal equation.” Government debt stood above $33 trillion in fiscal year 2023 (the 12 months that ended on Sept. 30). That’s about $1.7 trillion more than the year before. Interest on the debt has been growing steadily for decades, although at a relatively slow pace to about $570 billion in 2019 from about $350 billion in 1995—an annual increase of some 2 percent. With the explosion of government spending during the COVID-19 pandemic and the subsequent interest rate increases by the Federal Reserve, the debt cost has skyrocketed by more than 50 percent between 2019 and 2023. Over the past year, it has already surpassed the entire military budget. The cost is expected to keep growing as old debt issued at low interest rates matures and is rolled over into higher rates. While the government pays some of the interest to itself, as it holds about 20 percent of the debt in various trusts and funds, interest from that portion of the debt is supposed to pay for future expenses of programs such as Medicare and Social Security. “That money is already slated to go out the door. It just hasn’t gone out the door yet,” said E.J. Antoni, an economist and research fellow at conservative think tank The Heritage Foundation. “It’s not as if the government has that cash on hand to spend.”

Johnson brings defense chops to upcoming spending fight - New Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) has spent the last couple years on the House Armed Services Committee, experience that will influence his handling of the upcoming fight with the Senate over the annual Defense spending bill. While Johnson’s unique perspective may help in moving forward the immense, $886 billion National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA), the must-pass legislation faces a series of hurdles and a wide chasm with the Senate. The current House bill contains a series of GOP-backed culture war provisions, which Johnson has supported, that are dead on arrival in the upper chamber. Still, lawmakers this week expressed optimism over the bill’s chances, including two senior members of the House Armed Services Committee. “I just talked to [Johnson] about 30 minutes ago. He’s committed to make sure we get the NDAA done,” Rep. Rob Wittman (R-Va.) told attendees at a Politico defense event Tuesday. Wittman, the chair of the committee’s Tactical Air and Land Forces panel, said the new Speaker “understands what he has to balance there” in the interest of the GOP, as well as what has to be done to get the NDAA through the House and the Senate. And Rep. Joe Courtney (D-Conn.), the ranking member of the Armed Services seapower subcommittee, said the Speaker has “the muscle memory of voting for bipartisan NDAAs.” “I’m hopeful, anyway, that that is gonna stick with him and make sure that we continue the winning streak for NDAA,” Courtney added, referring to the fact the bill has passed annually for 61 consecutive years. Johnson, who was a lawyer before joining the House in 2017, has served on the House Armed Services Committee since 2021, sitting on the readiness and seapower subcommittees While in Congress, he voted for the final passage for every NDAA, including voting to override then-President Trump’s veto of the legislation for fiscal 2021 — an issue that arose over its rule to remove Confederate names from military bases. But the task of overseeing a final version of the bill to send to President Biden’s desk is far from simple. The House’s version of the NDAA, miles apart from the Senate’s, is packed with provisions restricting the Pentagon’s abortion travel policy, cutting medical care for transgender troops and ending various diversity programs. Johnson, who in the past has sought wins on social issues that affect service members, must help craft a compromise bill that satisfies both the Republican-led House that pushed forward such culture war provisions and the Democrat-controlled Senate that has balked at their inclusion in the legislation. Among the most controversial items is a rule that would block the Pentagon’s new policy that covers travel costs for military members who seek abortions out of state from where they are based, a proposal that the conservative Johnson co-sponsored.

US announces new Ukraine package as Pentagon chief visits Kyiv - The U.S. on Monday released a new $100 million aid package for Ukraine, announcing more artillery rounds and anti-aircraft munitions as Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin made a surprise visit to Kyiv. The package includes 155 millimeter artillery shells, Stinger anti-aircraft missiles, small arms ammunition and Javelin and AT-4 launchers. Austin said at a Monday press conference in Kyiv that the package will help Ukrainian troops in the coming months “have the means that they’ll need to be successful fighting in the wintertime.” “There is no silver bullet in a conflict like this. It really depends on providing the right capabilities and also integrating those capabilities in meaningful ways,” he said. “The Ukraine military is a learning organization, and it will continue to learn from from all of its operations. “I think what’s important is that the military constructs its operations to focus on the objectives and the goals that the president wants to achieve,” he added, referring to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.Ukrainian forces have been bogged down in a stalemate with dug-in Russian forces for most of the year, with only marginal successes since launching a major counteroffensive in June. Ukraine says it will need a steady supply of support from Western backers to stay in the fight, and the U.S. has vowed to continue supporting Kyiv as long as needed, though approved money is running out as winter closes in. The Pentagon has said it is pacing out the number of packages to Ukraine as it waits for Congress to pass another round of legislation that could include potentially billions more.The Republican-controlled House, however, has struggled to pass any Ukraine package as more conservative members have expressed skepticism on future support.Austin, who has met with new Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.), said he “continues to see bipartisan support” in Congress.“Our congressional members have valid questions that we will answer, but again, I would point out that Ukraine matters,” he said. “What happens here matters not just to Ukraine, but to the entire world.”

Lloyd Austin Visits Ukraine, Announces $100 Million Arms Package - Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin made an unannounced visit to Kyiv on Monday, where he announced a new $100 million weapons package for Ukraine and insisted the US would provide long-term support for the war against Russia despite growing signs to the contrary.“I announced today another $100 million drawdown using Presidential Drawdown Authority to provide additional artillery munitions, additional interceptors for air defense and a number of anti-tank weapons as well,” Austin told reporters.The Presidential Drawdown Authority allows the US to ship weapons to Ukraine directly from Pentagon stockpiles. The US has about $5 billion left in PDA to arm Ukraine, which became available due to a Pentagon “accounting error” that overvalued previous arms shipments.All other types of assistance for Ukraine have dried up, and Congress has yet to authorize President Biden’s request for an additional $61 billion to fund the war for another year. Many members of Congress are now more focused on ensuring more military aid is sent to Israel to support its campaign in Gaza. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said he’s seen a “decrease” in US artillery shell shipments since the outbreak of the Gaza war.Despite the uncertainty about US support for Ukraine, Austin told Zelensky that it would continue. “The message that I bring you today, Mr. President, is that the United States of America is with you. We will remain with you for the long haul,” he said.In a statement on the new $100 million arms package, Secretary of State Antony Blinken called on Congress to authorize more spending for the war. “It is critical for Congress to take action to support Ukraine by passing the President’s supplemental funding request,” Blinken said.According to the Pentagon, the new arms package includes the following:

• Stinger anti-aircraft missiles
• One High Mobility Artillery Rocket System (HIMARS) and additional ammunition
• 155mm and 105mm artillery rounds
• Tube-Launched, Optically-Tracked, Wire-Guided (TOW) missiles
• Javelin and AT-4 anti-armor systems
• More than 3 million rounds of small arms ammunition
• Demolitions munitions for obstacle clearing
• Cold weather gear
• Spare parts, maintenance, and other ancillary equipment

Zelenksy: Artillery Shell Deliveries Have Decreased Since Outbreak of Gaza War - Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has said that deliveries of artillery shells from the US have “decreased” since Israel unleashed its relentless bombing campaign in Gaza following the October 7 Hamas attack.The US has provided Ukraine with a huge amount of artillery ammunition since Russia launched its invasion last year, including over 2 million 155mm shells. But supplies are strained as Ukraine is using ammunition at a much faster rate than can be produced by the entire NATO alliance.Supplies are even more strained now that the US is backing Israel’s onslaught in Gaza. The support includes near-daily weapons shipments. Axios recently reported that the US had diverted 155mm shells initially bound for Ukraine to Israel to replenish an ammunition stockpile in the country.“Our deliveries have decreased,” Zelensky told reporters on November 16, according to AFP. “It’s not like the US said: we don’t give Ukraine any. No! It’s just that everyone is fighting for (stockpiles) themselves … This is life. I’m not saying that this is positive, but this is life, and we have to defend what’s ours.”According to Defense One, Ukraine fires about 240,000 155mm artillery shells per month, significantly higher than US monthly production rates. The US has ramped up its monthly production rate to 28,000 shells and is working to reach a goal of 80,000.Besides the tightening supplies, the Biden administration also has yet to secure new funding for the proxy war in Ukraine. President Biden asked Congress to authorize $61 billion to fund the conflict for another year, but US lawmakers appear more focused on arming and supporting Israel.

US Mission To NATO Signals Zelensky Must Sit At "Negotiating Table" -- In yet another major indicator and sign that Washington policy has drastically changed, after it's become clear that Ukraine's forces won't be able to push back Russia from the frontlines and with most of the Donbas firmly under Russian control, the US Mission to NATO has published the following message... The official X account of the US Mission to NATO wrote Monday, "In this tough and dynamic battle, Ukraine’s soldiers are fighting bravely every single day, and they continue to inspire the world with their bravery and courage." "We will continue to support them to be in the strongest possible position at the negotiating table when the time comes," the statement said. This marks a drastic shift in public messaging. Up to a short while ago, the Biden administration had essentially banished the words "negotiating table" from its public discourse. Journalist Glenn Greenwald has commented of this narrative shift: "The West is now telling Zelensky, more or less explicitly and right out in the open: time to wrap this up." This significant difference in public rhetoric has also begun to appear more and more in mainstream media, which has also very belatedly reflected the American public's 'war fatigue' - which was already setting in even before Ukraine's much-vaunted early summer attempt at a counteroffensive...

Defense Department Spent Nearly $1 Million at Trump Properties from July 2017 to November 2019, Records Obtained by American Oversight Reveal - American Oversight -- Records recently obtained by American Oversight and reported on by Forbes reveal that the Department of Defense spent nearly $1 million at properties owned by former President Donald Trump between July 2017 and November 2019. “As far as we can tell, this is the first time these specific expenses have been reported — and they are long overdue,” Heather Sawyer, American Oversight’s executive director, told Forbes’ Zach Everson. “While we expect to receive receipts of government spending at Trump properties for years to come, we urge the government to pick up the pace so that the American people have this information.”In 2019, American Oversight asked multiple agencies, including the Defense Department, for records regarding federal spending at Trump properties, including any guidance issued surrounding the use of Trump properties for official business and any expenses paid to Trump properties. In response, the department recently released a spreadsheet detailing the department’s spending at Trump properties. The spreadsheet shows a total of $974,634.02 spent at Trump properties from July 25, 2017, through Nov. 20, 2019, including more than $270,000 at Trump National Doral Miami. The records also include a memo detailing $1,680 spent by the New Jersey National Guard at Trump’s club in that state. It’s unclear from the records whether that amount is included in the spreadsheet’s total or whether it is in addition to the $974,634.02. Previous reporting revealed that the Pentagon had spent at least $184,000 at the Trump Turnberry resort in Scotland between 2017 and 2019, and Everson noted that the “previously publicly known high for Defense Department spending at Trump properties appears to be $300,000, which CNN reported in April 2019.”The documents obtained by American Oversight reflect those expenses as well as charges for other Defense Department events at Trump properties, including at hotels in Las Vegas and New York, the Trump National Golf Club in New Jersey, and the Trump Hotel in Chicago.American Oversight’s investigations of the former president’s unprecedented conflicts of interest revealed a lack of guidance for employees on how to navigate government spending at Trump-owned properties, as well as dozens of specific instances of taxpayer spending. In 2021, we obtained records from the Defense Department detailing a number of trips taken by cabinet and White House officials on military airplanes during the first year of the Trump administration, including several visits to Trump’s Mar-a-Lago club in Florida.As Everson noted in Forbes, “There’s no full public accounting of how much taxpayers shelled out to the Trump Organization during the Trump administration.”

Biden adviser arrives in Israel for talks on avoiding war with Lebanon - A key adviser to President Biden arrived Monday in Israel to continue efforts to de-escalate in the region and to avoid a second front in Israel’s war against Hamas. National security spokesperson John Kirby confirmed at a briefing Monday that senior energy adviser Amos Hochstein was in Israel to speak with Israeli counterparts over concerns that Hezbollah in southern Lebanon could join a wider war. “We don’t want to see this war escalate. We don’t want to see it widen. We certainly don’t believe it’s in anybody’s interest, certainly not the Israeli people’s interest to have a second front there in the north,” Kirby told reporters. “Though what Amos is doing, what our team is doing, is everything we can to help prevent that scenario from happening,” Kirby added. Kirby described Hochstein’s decision as a “sort of back briefing,” following up on discussions he had a week or so ago, “where he talked to Lebanese officials and to Israeli officials up in the north about the risks of a second front, a Northern Front.” Hochstein led quiet negotiations last year on an agreement on maritime borders between Israel and Lebanon. Hochstein’s latest trip comes as tensions continue to flare on the northern border of Israel and the southern border of Lebanon, where Hezbollah, a U.S.-designated terrorist organization, holds significant power. There is already a regular exchange of fire on the border, and officials have expressed concern that the flare-ups could lead to a second front against Hezbollah, which is widely regarded as more powerful and threatening to Israel’s existence than Hamas, another U.S.-designated terrorist organization.

US Shared Location of Aid Groups With Israel. Israel Bombed Them Anyway. - POLITICO reported Tuesday that the US has been sharing with Israel the location of humanitarian groups in Gaza in an attempt to prevent strikes on the sites. But Israel has been bombing them anyway. The information has included GPS coordinates of a number of medical facilities and the movement of aid groups inside Gaza. Among the sites the US shared with Israel was al-Shifa hospital, which Israeli forces raided last week, causing the medical facility to cease functioning and the deaths of dozens of patients, including eight premature babies.The US has tried to deflect blame for Israel’s attack on al-Shifa and other hospitals. The White House has said it doesn’t “want to see hospitals as battlegrounds,” but the US continues to provide unconditional military aid for Israel’s operations despite the massive civilian casualty rate.The POLITICO report said it’s unclear if the US has provided Israel with a “no-strike” list or if it’s just offering guidance. Considering the White House has also said it’s not setting “red lines” for Israel’s onslaught, it’s unlikely the US is demanding certain sites are off limits.Aid workers have said Israel has abandoned practices it has used before to prevent attacks on aid groups, such as a deconfliction line. “There is really no justification for the lack of a functioning deconfliction channel with aid groups,” a senior aid group official told POLITICO. “The IDF is familiar with deconfliction practices and has put a channel in place in previous conflicts.”Some aid groups turned to the US last month to help protect their workers. But after the US engaged with Israel on the location of aid groups’ offices, houses, and medical facilities, the attacks continued. Israel’s frequent targeting of aid groups is demonstrated by the fact that over 100 aid workers with the UN’s Relief and Works Agency for Palestinian Refugees have been killed in Gaza since October 7.

White House slams Musk 'antisemitic rhetoric,' says 'foolish' to drop SpaceX contracts --The White House is not moving away from Elon Musk's SpaceXor Starlink technology despite condemning Musk for pushing antisemitic comments on social media, National Security Counsel spokesman John Kirby said Monday."There's innovation out there in the private sector that we'd be foolish to walk away from," Kirby replied, when a reporter asked if the government was reconsidering its contracts withMusk's rocket-maker and his high-speed satellite internet provider."I'm not aware of any specific efforts to address our concerns over his rhetoric through the way that his companies provide support to our national security establishment," said Kirby.Just because the federal government has no plans to walk away from Musk's technology, however, "doesn't mean that we accept or agree with or condone in any way that antisemitic rhetoric that he pushed," Kirby added. Last week, Musk agreed with an antisemitic conspiracy theory posted on X, the social media platform formerly known as Twitter. The theory claimed Jewish people pushed a "dialectical hatred against whites." Musk replied, "You speak the actual truth."In response to the comments, major companies like Apple, Disney and Comcast, the parent company of CNBC, pausedtheir advertising spending on X. Decoupling the federal government from Musk's companies could be complicated, however. The Pentagon has commissioned Starlink technology to provide internet coverage to Ukraine, as the country's defensive war against Russia rages on. In September, Musk's SpaceX won a separate Pentagon contractfor Starshield, a military-specific version of Starlink that is still under development. Earlier this month, SpaceX got permission from the Federal Aviation Authority to conduct a test launch of its Starship/Super Heavy rocket in Texas. The Saturday lift off resulted in a brief flight, before the rocket self-destructed.In the past, senators have scrutinized the Defense Department's dependence on Musk's technology. Musk's antisemitic X post last week drew a swift response from the White House. "We condemn this abhorrent promotion of antisemitic and racist hate in the strongest terms, which runs against our core values as Americans," spokesman Andrew Bates said Friday."We all have a responsibility to bring people together against hate, and an obligation to speak out against anyone who attacks the dignity of their fellow Americans and compromises the safety of our communities," said Bates.At Monday's briefing, Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre said she did not have anything to announce as to whether the White House or President Joe Biden would suspend their accounts on X.A few hours after the press briefing, however, the White House,Biden, first lady Jill Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris all announced they had created profiles on Threads, the social media platform built by Meta to compete with X. A White House official said the launch has been in the works for weeks.

Despite Growing Anger, Sanders Stands Firmly Against Gaza Cease-Fire -Facing backlash from former staffers and other progressives, U.S. Sen.Bernie Sanders on Thursday declined once again to join the growing number of congressional lawmakers demanding an immediate cease-fire in the Gaza Strip, saying in a statement that he is "not quite sure how you negotiate a cease-fire with a terrorist organization that is dedicated to perpetual war."Sanders (I-Vt.) was referencing a Hamas spokesman's recent remark toThe New York Times that he hopes "the state of war with Israel will become permanent on all the borders"—an indication, according to the Vermont senator, that Hamas "wants perpetual warfare and the destruction of Israel."Sanders supported a cease-fire during Israel's deadly assault on Gaza in 2021, when he delivered a floor speech decrying the "terrible loss of life" in the enclave and demanding an immediate end to the bloodshed.But an unnamed former adviser to the senator toldThe Washington Post that he believes the October 7 Hamas-led attack on Israel forever changed Sanders' view on the possibility of a sustained cease-fire between Israel and Hamas.Instead of a negotiated cease-fire, Sanders has called for an end to Israel's "indiscriminate bombing" and a "significant pause" to allow desperately needed humanitarian aid to enter Gaza, as well as a guarantee that displaced Gazans are able to return to their homes—many of which have been significantly damaged or destroyed by Israeli airstrikes.In his statement Thursday, the senator also called on lawmakers to "attach conditions to any supplemental spending bill for Israel that comes before Congress," something the Biden administration has opposed."If we are going to have a chance at saving innocent lives, Congress must take action, the Biden administration must take action, the world must take action," said Sanders. "We must find a way to break this cycle of violence."

Biden Admin Worries the Pause in Gaza Will Give Journalists More Access to Expose Israeli Atrocities - There has been concern within the Biden administration that a pause in fighting in Gaza will give journalists the opportunity to expose more of the atrocities Israel has been committing, POLITICO reported on Tuesday.The concern was related to the hostage deal that was reached between Israel and Hamas that, if implemented, will include a four-day pause in the Israeli bombardment and ground campaign.The report said there was “some concern in the administration about an unintended consequence of the pause: that it would allow journalists broader access to Gaza and the opportunity to further illuminate the devastation there and turn public opinion on Israel.” Israel’s Gaza campaign has had an enormous toll on journalists. According to the Committee to Protect Journalists, 46 Palestinian journalists have been killed by Israel since October 7. Other journalists have had their families slaughtered, including Al Jazeera’s Gaza bureau chief, Wael Dahdouh, who lost his wife, son, daughter, and grandson. The killing of the Dahdouh family came around the same time Secretary of State Antony Blinken asked Qatar to tone down Al Jazeera’s coverage of the Gaza war over concerns about global public opinion on Israel. Al Jazeerais funded by Qatar but maintains it has editorial independence. The Israeli onslaught has also made it impossible for Gaza’s Health Ministry to count the dead, depriving journalists of the ability to gauge the destruction by the number of killed. The current unconfirmed estimate puts the death toll over 14,000, but the latest confirmed number from the Health Ministry was 11,078, including over 4,500 children, which was issued on November 10. President Biden previously accused the Palestinians of lying about the death toll when confronted about the massive civilian casualty rate. But since then, a senior State Department official said the true death toll is likely significantly higher than what the Health Ministry had been reporting, and that was before counting the dead became impossible.

US Doesn't Think Israel Can Make Good on Hostage Deal Promise to Increase Aid - Biden administration officials told The Times of Israel that they don’t believe Israel can live up to its commitment to allow 200 aid trucks to enter Gaza per day during the pause that’s part of the hostage deal with Hamas.The officials said Israel is refusing to open its Kerem Shalom crossing with Gaza during the four-day pause or at any time after. With only Egypt’s Rafah crossing available, 200 aid trucks will unlikely be able to enter per day.When Israel unleashed its bombing campaign after the October 7 Hamas attack, it initially refused to allow any aid to enter Gaza. After agreeing to let some in, Israel required aid trucks first to be inspected in Egypt, then inspected at an Israeli crossing before being sent to Rafah to enter Gaza.The extra steps have slowed down the limited aid that’s entering Gaza, and only a few times since deliveries resumed have aid groups reached their goal of getting 100 trucks into the enclave in a day. US officials have said there’s no indication Israel will open its Kerem Shalom crossing during the truce, putting the hostage deal in peril. The Biden administration officials said Israel’s stance is “really problematic because the level of aid going into Gaza now is totally unsustainable.” They said Israel’s reasoning for not opening the crossing is “completely political” since there are no security concerns about aid entering Gaza.

Bolton calls truce between Israel, Hamas ‘a game of psychological warfare’ -- Former U.S. national security adviser John Bolton reiterated his belief Thursday that the short-term truce between Hamas and Israel is a “bad deal.” “Hamas is playing a game of psychological warfare against the people of Israel, and the people of the United States as well,” Bolton argued in an interview with CNN’s Kaitlan Collins on Thanksgiving Day, just hours before the temporary cease-fire was set to begin. “They’re trying to distract Israel from its strategic mission of eliminating Hamas, and trying to focus on the question of the hostages [and] the question of the condition of civilians in Gaza,” he added. While acknowledging that he believes the situation is “heart-wrenching” for the families of the hostages, the former White House official said Israel’s mission of eradicating the Palestinian militant group is “much more important.” He argued that Hamas wants to turn the four-day pause into permanent cease-fire by attempting to “break the morale” or the resolve of the Israeli military — thus benefitting the militants over Israel.

Progressives Say Israel-Hamas Pause 'Not Enough' to End Bloodshed -Israel and Hamas have agreed to a deal under which dozens of Israeli hostages will be freed in exchange for a brief pause in fighting and the release of 150 Palestinian women and children held in Israel's prisons. The pause, set to take effect within the next 24 hours, is expected to last at least four days to allow for the release of 50 hostages held by Hamas. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's office said the pause will be extended by a day for every additional 10 hostages released. Hamas is believed to have around 240 hostages. According to the Israeli human rights group HaMoked, thousands of Palestinians are currently detained in Israel without charge or trial. If it holds, the Qatar-mediated hostage deal will mark a temporary reprieve in what has been a catastrophic six-week war. Israel's response to the October 7 Hamas-led attack—which killed roughly 1,200 people—has decimated large swaths of the Gaza Strip, wrecking schools, homes, hospitals, and other civilian infrastructure and killing more than 14,000 people, drawing accusations of genocide. Israel's siege of the Palestinian enclave has left virtually the entire population on the brink of starvation and forced many of the territory's overwhelmed hospitals to shut down due to a lack of fuel and other critical supplies, depriving many patients—including premature babies—of necessary treatment. "There is no military solution. We need a political solution—and we cannot get there until we have a full and lasting ceasefire." Progressive U.S. lawmakers who have been calling for a cease-fire for weeks welcomed the newly announced hostage deal but said it's not sufficient, particularly if the Israeli government resumes its devastating bombing campaign once the four-day pause is over—as Netanyahu hassaid he intends to do. "A temporary pause in the violence is not enough," Rep. Rashida Tlaib(D-Mich.) said in a statement. "We must move with urgency to save as many lives as possible and achieve a permanent cease-fire agreement. Over 14,000 Palestinians have been killed in Gaza since this violence began, including thousands of children, and 1.7 million Palestinians have been displaced from their homes."“Further displacement of Palestinians and forced annexation of their land will only perpetuate this conflict," Tlaib added. "Expanding the illegal occupation will never lead to a just and lasting peace. We must address the root causes of this conflict."Rep. Cori Bush (D-Mo.), the lead sponsor of a cease-fire resolution in the U.S. House, said the pause announcement "further proves the effectiveness of de-escalation and diplomacy—not military force—as a means of saving lives and affirms why we must keep up our push for a permanent cease-fire.""When this agreement expires, the bombing will continue, thousands more will die, and millions of people will continue to be displaced," said Bush. "We must continue to vigorously push for a permanent cease-fire that ends this violence, protects and saves lives, and ensures the safe return of all hostages, including those who are being arbitrarily detained."The advocacy group Jewish Voice for Peace echoed Bush and Tlaib, saying that "the Israeli government's collective punishment and unfolding genocide of Palestinians in Gaza cannot just be put on 'pause'; it must be stopped.""Once we have reached a permanent cease-fire, we cannot return to the status quo," the group continued. "We must address the root causes of injustice. A future of peace and safety for everyone, grounded in justice, freedom and equality for all, is still the only option. There is no military solution. We need a political solution—and we cannot get there until we have a full and lasting cease-fire."

Calls for ‘conditions’ in aid to Israel add to Democrats’ divisions - The battle among Democrats over U.S. policy on Israel has found a new front this month in the form of liberal calls to set “conditions” on any new military aid delivered to Tel Aviv. A number of leading progressives in both the House and Senate have warned in recent days that they would oppose any aid package that fails to apply new limits on Israel’s forceful engagement with Palestinians in the wake of Hamas’s brutal attacks on Israeli civilians last month, including strikes in Gaza that have killed thousands more Palestinian civilians. Behind Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), the liberal critics of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s tactics want to withhold new aid to his government unless it agrees to new constraints designed to minimize those civilian casualties. “The blank check approach must end,” Sanders wrote in a New York Times op-ed published Wednesday. “The United States must make clear that while we are friends of Israel, there are conditions to that friendship and that we cannot be complicit in actions that violate international law and our own sense of decency.” The demands have sparked a backlash from some of Capitol Hill’s most ardent pro-Israel Democrats, who are lashing out at the pro-Palestinian bloc with warnings that restricting Israel’s response to the Oct. 7 attacks would only empower Hamas, which the United States deems a terrorist group, and heighten the threat it poses to Israel. “Neither Palestinians nor Israelis will know peace so long as Hamas holds hostages, controls Gaza, and retains its ability to attack Israelis,” Rep. Brad Schneider (D-Ill.), a staunch Israel supporter, said over the weekend. “Conditioning aid to Israel will move peace further away, threatening both Israeli and Palestinian lives rather than saving them.” The internal clash has highlighted the long-standing Democratic divisions when it comes to the decades-old Israel-Palestine conflict, creating fresh challenges for party leaders, including President Biden, who are backing Israel’s forceful response while also scrambling to placate the liberal critics — a key branch of the party’s base — who are accusing Israel of committing human rights crimes in Gaza. Those ruptures have been on full display within the House Democratic Caucus since Oct. 7, arising during a pair of votes to affirm Congress’s support for Israel — both rhetorically and financially — and later in another series of votes that ended in the formal censure of Rep. Rashida Tlaib (D-Mich.), one of just three Muslims in Congress and the only Palestinian American, for her sharp criticisms of Israel.

Republican China Hawks Want $12 Billion Added to Biden's $105 Billion Request - Seven Republican members of the House’s China committee led by Rep. Mike Gallagher (R-WI) sent a letter to congressional leaders on Sunday calling for an additional $12 billion to be added to President Biden’s behemoth $105 billion spending request. Biden’s request includes military aid for Ukraine, Israel, Taiwan and funding for border security.“We write to you today to urge you to increase funding for the Indo-Pacific, our stated priority theater, above the levels set in the Biden Administration’s supplemental appropriations request to more appropriately address the urgency of the threat in the region,” the letter reads.The lawmakers said they support arming Ukraine and Israel but want more focus on preparing for a future conflict with China. “Ensuring that Israel and Ukraine have the resources they need to defeat authoritarian aggression today is in our direct national security interests. Yet if we fail to provide the resources necessary to deter CCP aggression tomorrow, history will not forgive our inaction, nor will it spare us the consequences,” the letter states.Biden’s $105 billion request already includes $7.4 billion dedicated to the Indo-Pacific region. The $7.4 billion isbroken down into $3.4 billion in spending on submarine production to support the AUKUS military pact, $2 billion in financial aid to the region, and $2 billion in military aid, a sizable portion of which is expected to go to Taiwan. The $2 billion in military aid in President Biden’s request is in the form of Foreign Military Financing, a State Department program that gives foreign governments money to purchase US arms. Out of the $12 billion Gallagher and the other China hawks want to add to the request, $2 billion would go toward military aid for Taiwan using Presidential Drawdown Authority, which allows the US to send weapons directly from Pentagon stockpiles.

US to Deploy Previously Banned Missiles to Aim Them at China - The US military will deploy new medium-range missile systems to the Pacific region next year for the purpose of “deterring” China from invading Taiwan, the commander of US Army Pacific Forces said on Saturday.According to Defense One, Gen. Charles Flynn said the deployment will include a land-based version of the Tomahawk missile, which was previously banned under the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty, a treaty with Russia the US withdrew from in 2019.“We have tested them and we have a battery or two of them today,” Flynn said. “In 2024. We intend to deploy that system in your region. I’m not going to say where and when. But I will just say that we will deploy them.”The INF Treaty previously banned the development of land-based missiles with a range between 310 to 3,400 miles. The US’s new land-based batteries that use Tomahawk missiles can hit targets of up to 1,000 miles. The US Marines Corps activated its first Tomahawk battery over the summer at a base in California.The US withdrew from the INF over allegations that a new missile Russia was developing violated the treaty, which Moscow denied. Russia also accused the US of potentially running afoul of the treaty by installing Aegis Ashore missile defense systems in Romania and Poland. The systems use Mk-41 vertical launchers, which can fit Tomahawk missiles.The new battery activated by the Marines uses an Mk-41 launch system cell, demonstrating that the Russian concerns about the Aegis Systems are not unfounded. The US formally exited the INF treaty on August 2, 2019, and began testing INF-range missiles with ground-based Mk-41 launchers just a few weeks later.

US AC-130 Gunship Launches Strikes in Iraq, Casualties Reported - US Central Command (CENTCOM) said Tuesday that a US AC-130 gunship launched strikes in Iraq against people allegedly responsible for an earlier missile attack on the Ain al-Asad airbase in western Iraq, which houses US troops.The Pentagon said eight US troops were wounded when Ain al-Asad airbase was targeted with a “short-range ballistic missile” and that the AC-130 responded “immediately.”CENTCOM said the AC-130 strikes strike resulted in “several enemy casualties.” A US official later told The War Zone that the strikes killed at least one member of Kataib Hezbollah, an Iraqi Shia militia.According to AFP, the AC-130 struck a vehicle in Abu Ghraib, once the site of the notorious American torture prison. AC-130 gunships are armed with various types of heavy weapons, including 105mm howitzers.The US airstrikes in Iraq risk significantly escalating attacks on US forces in the region. As of Monday, US troops in Iraq and Syria have come under attack at least 61 times since October 17 due to President Biden’s full-throated support for the Israeli onslaught in Gaza. The US has launched three rounds of airstrikes in eastern Syria against Shia militias believed to be responsible for the attacks. The incident on Tuesday marked the first US strikes in Iraq since the attacks on US bases started last month.The Washington Post reported over the weekend that the Pentagon was aware launching strikes in Iraq could “exacerbate anti-American sentiment” in the country. Many elements in Iraqi politics oppose the US presence, which consists of about 2,500 troops, and the direct US strikes could spark fresh protests.

US Launches Second Round of Airstrikes in Iraq - US warplanes hit targets in Iraq early Wednesday morning, marking the second round of US airstrikes in the country in just over 24 hours as the situation in the region continues to escalate.Pentagon officials said the airstrikes hit two facilities south of Baghdad used by Kataib Hezbollah, an Iraqi Shia militia aligned with Iran. Officials said it was too early to provide information about casualties.The strikes came after a US AC-130 gunship targeted people in Iraq the Pentagon said was responsible for a ballistic missile attack on the Ain al-Asad airbase west of Baghdad. US officials said the AC-130 strikes killed three militants.The attack on the Ain al-Asad airbase wounded at least eight US troops. According to the Pentagon, US forces in Iraq and Syria have come under attack 66 times since October 17 due to President Biden’s support for Israel’s onslaught on Gaza.The US had previously launched three rounds of airstrikes in eastern Syria, but the AC-130 strikes marked the first US bombing of Iraq since October 7. The US attacks on Iraq risk a significant escalation as many elements inside the country are opposed to the US presence, not just the Iran-aligned faction.The Washington Post reported over the weekend that the Pentagon was aware launching strikes in Iraq could “exacerbate anti-American sentiment” in the country. Iraq’s parliament voted to expel US troops back in 2020 after the US drone strike that killed Iranian Gen. Qassem Soleimani and Iraqi militia leader Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis. Iraqi prime ministers have been under pressure to expel foreign troops ever since 2020. In an effort to placate anti-US factions, the US formally changed its presence in Iraq from a combat role to an advisory role in December 2021. But the US did not withdraw any troops at the time and still has 2,500 in the country today.

'Dangerous Escalation': Iraqi Government Condemns US Airstrikes - The Iraqi government on Wednesday condemned deadly U.S. airstrikes south of Baghdad as "a clear violation of sovereignty" that risks escalating regional tensions amid Israel's assault on the Gaza Strip.The Pentagon said the U.S. strikes targeted two facilities used by Kataib Hezbollah, an Iraqi militia group that the U.S. considers an Iranian proxy. The group, which the U.S. has accused of carrying out an attack on American forces at Iraq's al-Asad Airbase, said eight of its fighters were killed in the early Wednesday strikes and pledged to retaliate.Bassem al-Awadi, a spokesperson for Iraq's government, said the U.S. launched the strikes without any coordination with Iraqi officials, a decision that he called "a dangerous escalation" and "an attempt to disrupt the stable internal security situation."Al-Awadi also denounced "any armed action or activity outside the military institution is deemed condemnable and an unlawful endeavor that jeopardizes the national interest," an apparent reference to militia attacks on U.S. forces in Iraq.The U.S. airstrikes came just over 24 hours after an American gunshiplaunched an attack on what the Pentagon described as "an Iranian-backed militia vehicle and a number of Iranian-backed militia personnel" in Iraq, purportedly targeting militants who were involved in a ballistic missile strike on U.S. forces.The missile attack "resulted in non-serious injuries to U.S. and coalition forces, as well as minor damage to infrastructure on the installation," the Pentagon said.

Iraqi Government 'Vehemently' Condemns US Airstrikes as Violation of Sovereignty - Iraq’s government on Wednesday blasted US airstrikes launched in the country against Shia militias, calling them a violation of Iraqi sovereignty.“We vehemently condemn the attack on Jurf al-Nasr, executed without the knowledge of Iraqi government agencies,” said Iraqi government spokesman Basem al-Awadi.“This action is a blatant violation of sovereignty and an attempt to destabilize the security situation,” al-Awadi added.The statement came after the US military announced it launched airstrikes early Wednesday against facilities south of Baghdad used by Kataib Hezbollah, a Shia militia that’s aligned with Iran. Iraq’s Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF), an umbrella group of Shia militias that formed in 2014 to fight ISIS, said eight of its fighters were killed in the US strikes.About 24 hours earlier, a US AC-130 Gunship launched airstrikes against individuals the US claims were responsible for a ballistic missile attack on the Ain al-Asad airbase, which hosts US troops. US officials said the AC-130 killed three militants.The AC-130 strikes were the first the US launched in Iraq since US troops in Iraq and Syria started coming under attack due to President Biden’s support for Israel’s onslaught in Gaza. According to the Pentagon, US troops have come under attack 66 times in Iraq and Syria since October 17.The US previously launched three rounds of airstrikes in eastern Syria. Over the weekend, The Washington Post reported that the Pentagon was aware launching strikes in Iraq could “exacerbate anti-American sentiment” in the country. The US has 2,500 troops in Iraq, a presence many elements in Iraq strongly oppose. The Iraqi government said the airstrikes violated the agreement the US has with Baghdad to keep troops in the country.“The recent incident represents a clear violation of the coalition’s mission to combat [ISIS] on Iraqi soil,” the statement said. The government also condemned the frequent attacks on US troops and said it was the only authority that could punish the perpetrators.“The Iraqi government is solely dedicated to enforcing the law and holding violators accountable, a prerogative exclusively within its purview. No party or foreign agency has the right to assume this role, as it contradicts Iraqi constitutional sovereignty and international law,” the statement said.

US embarks on proxy war against Iran -A massive US naval deployment in a wide arc of the so-called Greater Middle East is under way — stretching from Crete in the Eastern Mediterranean, into the Red Sea and the Bab el Mandeb and into the Gulf of Aden and all the way into the Gulf of Oman. This deterrent display may transform as large scale offensive operations and aims to rework the geopolitical alignments and bring them back to the traditional grooves of intra-regional rivalries in the Gulf region.Ship spotters first said that as of Thursday, the aircraft carrier USSDwight D. Eisenhower and its escorts were sailing just outside the Strait of Hormuz in the Gulf of Oman, and were approaching the Persian Gulf. A Pentagon official confirmed the location but would not say whether the carrier will enter the Persian Gulf passing through the Strait of Hormuz.The US naval build-up in the region consists of another carrier strike group as well — USS Ford and its escorts — which last week moved away from Israeli coast and is now re-positioned to the south of Crete, according to ship spotters, apparently beyond the missile reach of Lebanon’s Hezbollah.Apart from the two carrier strike groups, the US deployment also includes a three-ship Bataan Amphibious Ready Group with the 26th Marine Expeditionary Unit and several guided-missile destroyers — USS Bataan and USS Carter Hall operating in the northern portion of the Red Sea, and USS Mesa Verde in the Eastern Mediterranean along with the command ship USS Mount Whitney.Additionally, there are some number of US attack submarines in the region, but the Pentagon does not typically disclose their locations — except for a rare disclosure recently by the US Central Command of the transit on November 5 of nuclear guided-missile submarine USSFlorida to the east of Suez.The most obvious explanation for such a formidable naval buildup is that it is part of the US effort to keep the current conflict in southern Israel and Gaza contained. Hezbollah continues to fire rockets and anti-tank missiles into Israel from Lebanon; Iran-backed Shia militant groups are attacking US bases in Iraq and Syria; and Houthi rebels in Yemen are firing missiles towards Israel. During the period since October 17, there have been at least 58 attacks on US bases, mostly in Iraq.The hardline opinion in the US is that the militant groups attacking the US forces are acting at Iran’s behest. This allegation is an old US-Israeli bogey and keeps surging whenever Iran is in the crosshairs and/or there is requirement of a blame game. Expert opinion, including in the US, has always been wary of it.

Iran Tells US It Doesn't Want Gaza War to Escalate Into Regional Conflict - Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian has said that Tehran expressed to the US through back channels that it does not want the Gaza war to escalate into a regional conflict while also warning escalation was inevitable if Israel didn’t stop its campaign. “Over the past 40 days, messages have been exchanged between Iran and the US, via the US interests section at the Swiss embassy in Tehran,” Amirabdollahian said in an interview with Financial Times published on Friday.“In response to the US, we said that Iran does not want the war to spread, but due to the approach adopted by the US and Israel in the region, if the crimes against the people of Gaza and the West Bank are not stopped, any possibility could be considered, and a wider conflict could prove inevitable,” he added.The US has blamed Iran for attacks on US troops in Iraq and Syria that started in October due to President Biden’s support for the Israeli assault on Gaza, but Tehran has said it’s not responsible, and the US has never produced evidence to show Iran is directing the attacks.Amirabdollahian said that the Shia militias in Iraq and Syria that are believed to be responsible for the attacks on US bases are not Iranian proxies. He said the same of Hezbollah, other Palestinian militants, and the Houthis in Yemen, according to Financial Times. But he warned the groups “are not indifferent towards the killing of their Muslim and Arab peers in Palestine.”Amirabdollahian said the war had already “expanded in the region,” citing Houthis attacks on Israel and the fighting between Hezbollah and Israeli forces that continues to escalate. The US has deployed an enormous amount of firepower to the Middle East in the name of “deterring” regional actors from escalating against Israel, but Amirabdollahian said the US has not threatened to target Iran directly if Hezbollah launched an all-out assault on Israel.In response to the attacks against US bases, the US has launched three rounds of airstrikes targeting facilities the Pentagon claimed were used by Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and affiliated groups. Amirabdollahian said “no Iranian forces were struck” in the US airstrikes. He said one of the facilities was previously used by Iranian “military advisers in the fight against terrorists, but that place was empty of any Iranian forces or supplies at the time of the attack.”

Senate Passes Bill to Suspend Military Aid to Azerbaijan - The Senate on Thursday passed a bill by voice vote that would suspend military aid to Azerbaijan for two years following Baku’s takeover of Nagorno-Karabakh, which pushed over 100,000 ethnic Armenians out of the territory. The Armenian Protection Act of 2023 would prohibit the president from issuing a waiver that allows the US to provide Azerbaijan with military assistance. US aid to Azerbaijan was banned by Section 907 of the 1992 Freedom Support Act, which was passed during the first Nagorno-Karabakh war.The US started issuing the waiver in 2002 to provide Azerbaijan with military aid and has been under pressure since the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war to cut Baku off. President Biden issued the Section 907 waiver in 2022but has not so far in 2023. According to POLITICO, Secretary of State Antony Blinken told Congress in October that the Biden administration was not planning to renew the waiver for Azerbaijan. He also said the US expected to see Azerbaijan invade Armenia to create a corridor between mainland Azerbaijan and the Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic, an Azeri enclave that borders Armenia, Iran, and Turkey.

US Considers Redesignating Yemen's Houthis as 'Terrorists' - The White House has said it’s considering redesignating Yemen’s Houthis as “terrorists” after the Houthis seized an Israeli-linked vessel in the Red Sea in response to the Israeli onslaught in Gaza. “In light of this, we have begun a review of potential terrorist designations and we will be considering other options as well with our allies and partners as well,” said White House National Security Council spokesman John Kirby. Kirby condemned the ship seizure as “piracy of a ship in international waters.” However, the US frequently seizes ships in the name of sanctions enforcement and has repeatedly stolen Iranian gas and oil shipments in recent years. The Trump administration designated the Houthis, formally known as Ansar Allah, as a terrorist organization in a last-minute move in January 2021 despite warnings from aid groups that it would doom food-deprived Yemenis living in Houthi-controlled areas, which includes Yemen’s capital Sanaa and most of what used to be the country of North Yemen.Before the US backed the Saudi-UAE coalition in 2015, the Houthis were actually a partner of the US in the fight against al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP).The terrorist designation essentially criminalizes aid deliveries by making anyone who does business with the Houthi government subject to US sanctions. After the designation was implemented, the UN warned it would cause a famine on a scale not seen in 40 years. Due to the pressure from aid groups, President Biden reversed the designation in February 2021.According to the State Department, about 70-80% of Yemen’s population live in Houthi-controlled areas. The situation is so dire for them due to the US-backed Saudi-led war and blockade on Yemen that started in 2015. The people of Yemen have had some relief as a ceasefire reached in April 2022 has held relatively well, and the blockade has been eased somewhat. But according to the UN, about two-thirds of the population is still reliant on aid.

Exposé of 'Scandalous' US Spying Sparks Calls for Congress to Act "These new details add up to a horrifying picture that proves the need for Congress to... enact comprehensive privacy protections for Americans before reauthorizing any spying powers," said one campaigner. Privacy advocates on Monday renewed demands for swift congressional action on government surveillance in response to new WIREDreportingon a federally funded program through which law enforcement obtains phone records from AT&T."This is a long-running dragnet surveillance program in which the White House pays AT&T to provide all federal, state, local, and tribal law enforcement agencies the ability to request often-warrantless searches of trillions of domestic phone records," U.S. Sen. Ron Wyden (D-Ore.) wrote Sunday in a letter to Attorney General Merrick Garland, whichWIRED obtained and published in full.Wyden—a lead sponsor of the Government Surveillance Reform Act (GSRA), a bipartisan bill introduced earlier this month—shared some of what he has learned about the program and urged the U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ) to release information about it. Now known as Data Analytical Services (DAS), the program was initiallyrevealed to the public as the Hemisphere Project by The New York Times in 2013. Information collected includes caller and recipient names, phone numbers, and dates and times of calls.Based on what officials told Wyden's staff, "all Hemisphere requests are sent to a single AT&T analyst located in Atlanta, Georgia, and... any law enforcement officer working for one of the federal, state, local, and tribal law enforcement agencies in the U.S. can contact the AT&T Hemisphere analyst directly to request they run a query, with varying authorization requirements," the letter says.The letter also explains that "although the Hemisphere Project is paid for with federal funds, they are delivered to AT&T through an obscure grant program, enabling the program to skip an otherwise mandatory federal privacy review" by the DOJ.Citing a document provided by the White House Office of National Drug Control Policy (ONDCP), Wyden noted that "White House funding for this program was suspended by the Obama administration in 2013, the same year the program was exposed by the press, but continued with other federal funding under a new generic sounding program name, 'Data Analytical Services.'"

Sanders, Dems Invite Pharma CEOs to Testify on Sky-High Drug Prices -- U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders and every Democratic member of the committee he chairs sent letters on Tuesday inviting the CEOs of three major pharmaceutical companies to testify at an upcoming hearing on the nation's prescription drug costs, which are so high that millions of Americans are forced to ration their medications to save money."The American people have a right to know why it is that they pay, by far, the highest prices in the world for prescription drugs while the pharmaceutical industry in the U.S. makes hundreds of billions in profits and pays their CEOs tens of millions of dollars in compensation," Sanders (I-Vt.), chair of the Senate Health, Education, Labor, and Pensions (HELP) Committee, said in a statement.In letters to the top executives of Johnson & Johnson, Merck, andBristol Myers Squibb, Sanders and his Democratic colleagues asked, "How does it happen that one out of four Americans cannot afford to take the medicine their doctors prescribe while prescription drug companies make billions in profits and pay their executives exorbitant compensation packages?""How does it happen," the letters continue, "that the median price of new prescription drugs in the United States was over $220,000 last year, while the pharmaceutical industry spent billions on stock buybacks and dividends?"Johnson & Johnson, Merck, and Bristol Myers Squibb are some of the U.S. pharmaceutical industry's biggest offenders when it comes to charging Americans exorbitant prices for medications that can be purchased at a fraction of the cost in other countries.In a statement, Sanders' office pointed to Johnson & Johnson and AbbVie's Imbruvica, a blood cancer drug that carries a list price of roughly $204,000 for an annual supply in the U.S. The drug sells for $46,000 annually in the United Kingdom and $43,000 in Germany.Imbruvica is one of the 10 drugs that the Biden administration selected for an initial round of price negotiations with Medicare, which was empowered to directly negotiate prescription medicine costs with pharmaceutical companies under the Inflation Reduction Act.The three companies run by the invited executives have all sued the Biden administration over the Medicare price negotiations. In September, a federal judge in Ohio rejected an effort by the U.S. Chamber of Commerce to halt the negotiations.Sanders said Tuesday that he looks forward to "hearing from the CEOs of large pharmaceutical companies directly on this critical issue.""I also look forward to working with my colleagues in the Senate to lower the outrageously high price of prescription drugs," the senator added. "A lifesaving drug is not effective if the patient who needs that drug cannot afford it."

Here's what we know so far about Biden's 'Plan B' for student loan forgiveness -- President Joe Biden's new plan to forgive student debt is likely to look much different than his first. After the Supreme Court ultimately blocked Biden's policy that would have cancelled up to $20,000 in student debt for tens of millions of people in June, the president immediately announced that he would attempt to deliver the relief another way.The president's Plan B for relief is likely to be much narrower in its reach, said higher education expert Mark Kantrowitz. That's because the justices ruled that the president's original plan, which would have covered more than 90% of federal student loan borrowers, was too far-reaching. ″'Can the Secretary use his powers to abolish $430 billion in student loans, completely canceling loan balances for 20 million borrowers, as a pandemic winds down to its end?'" wrote Chief Justice John Roberts in the majority opinion for Biden v. Nebraska. "We can't believe the answer would be yes." Less than 10% of federal student loan borrowers are likely to qualify this round, Kantrowitz said. Luke Herrine, an assistant professor of law at the University of Alabama, also believes the next forgiveness policy will include far fewer borrowers. "I think it would be easier to justify in front of a court that is skeptical of broad authority," Herrine said in an earlier interview with CNBC. The Biden administration seems focused on still delivering relief to five specific groups of borrowers, according to a recent paper issued by the U.S. Department of Education. Those are:

1. Borrowers with current balances greater than what they originally borrowed.
2. Those who entered into repayment on their student loans 25 or more years ago.
3. Students who attended programs of questionable value.
4. Borrowers eligible for existing relief programs, including Public Service Loan Forgiveness, who just haven't applied.
5. Debtors in financial hardship.

This forgiveness process is likely to take longer, experts say. Biden first tried to cancel student debt with an executive order in August 2022, and had promised borrowers the relief within six weeks of them completing their paperwork. This time he's turning to the rulemaking process. That procedure is lengthier, typically involving a public comment period and other time-consuming steps. "Issuing new regulations can take as long as a year," Kantrowitz said. If the administration is successful this time, he said, borrowers could see their debt cancellation around the time of the 2024 presidential election.

Greene calls for new Jan. 6 select committee - Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) on Sunday called on Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) to create a new Jan. 6 select committee she said would target the original members of the panel and exonerate the so-called “MAGA” wing of the Republican Party from blame associated with the 2021 attack on the Capitol. In a post on X, formerly Twitter, Greene outlined her vision for the committee. She said it must issue subpoenas to the original committee members, to former Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) and to the witnesses who testified.“I’m calling on @SpeakerJohnson to create a January 6th Select Committee,” Greene wrote in her post on X. “Releasing the tapes is not enough!” “There needs to be investigations and ACCOUNTABILITY for ALL of the lies, deceit, and lives ruined,” she added.Johnson announced Friday he would begin releasing thousands of hours of security footage from Jan. 6, 2021, when thousands of pro-Trump rioters stormed the Capitol, attempting to stop the certification of President Biden’s election.“This decision will provide millions of Americans, criminal defendants, public interest organizations, and the media an ability to see for themselves what happened that day, rather than having to rely upon the interpretation of a small group of government officials,” Johnson said in announcing the release.More than 1,100 people have been charged in connection to the Capitol insurrection.A House panel probed the attack and provided mountains of evidence connecting formerPresident Trump to it. At the end of the panel’s probe, members voted unanimously to recommend the Department of Justice (DOJ) investigate Trump for incitement of an insurrection, conspiracy to defraud the United States, conspiracy to make a false statement and obstruction of an official proceeding.

Why The New York Times’s Jan. 6 U-turn is a big deal -Is The New York Times going soft on the Jan. 6 rioters? Maybe beginning to doubt its lopsided coverage of the events of that day? Starting to think the Justice Department’s investigation into the protests, deemed “the biggest criminal inquiry in the Justice Department’s 153-year history,” is just a bit over the top? Or is the Times worried that newly released footage will reveal a different story than that told by the biased House investigation used to impeach former President Trump? Thanks to Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.), Americans have an opportunity to challenge Democrats’ accusation that many hundreds of Trump supporters engaged in a violent “insurrection.” The new Republican Speaker of the House recently released 44,000 hours of video tapes, including security video from the Capitol Hill police, affording us another look at what actually happened that day. . This we know: 63 days after the election of 2020, supporters of Trump marched to the Capitol. Some were armed and dangerous, intent on disrupting the peaceful transfer of power to newly elected Joe Biden. Others were not, but believed that Democrats stole the election, and followed the throngs who headed toward Congress ready to protest the theft. Some got caught up in the moment, stayed clear of the violence that followed but were later hunted down and imprisoned. One such participant is the subject of a lengthy and compassionate story published by the Times two days after the release of the new tapes. It concerns a Wisconsin man thrown in jail because his son turned him into the FBI. The father, Brian Mock, is introduced as a political moderate, a landscaper who occasionally voted Republican but who also voted for former President Obama. He is portrayed as an utterly decent and law-abiding man who is an “advocate for the homeless” and who supported his son when he came out as gay. In the article, Mock, who was convicted of 11 charges relating to the riot but has not yet been sentenced, is trying to make his son understand how he got caught up in the rowdy crowd and why he is photographed pushing a police officer. He has been warned by his lawyers that he could spend several years in prison, even though he never set foot inside the Capitol and, according to him, only laid a hand on the cop when he thought he was going for his weapon. Watching video of the event, he says, “There were throngs of people, like a river. You’re in the current. You’re getting pushed … I had a concussion grenade go off and explode right on me. … Can you see how that would provoke a crowd?” “I’m not some lunatic frothing at the mouth. I got in a bad situation for about five minutes. Do you see where I’m coming from?”

Frustrated House lawmakers run for exits - The public has increasingly soured on Congress — and now, some House lawmakers are starting to agree. With legislating all but brought to a halt and partisanship at an alarming high, members of Congress in both parties are running for the exits, opting out of another term on Capitol Hill to vie for higher office or, in some cases, leave politics altogether. It is a trend that skyrocketed in recent months — amid a tumultuous 10-week stretch on Capitol Hill — and one that is likely to continue through the end of this year, highlighting the challenges of navigating a polarized, and oftentimes chaotic, era of Congress. “Right now, Washington, D.C. is broken,” Rep. Debbie Lesko (R-Ariz.) said in a statement when announcing that she would not run for reelection. “[I]t is hard to get anything done.” “Too often elected officials chase the 24-hour news cycle, focusing on the issue of the day, and when you look back there is little to show for it,” said Rep. Brian Higgins (D-N.Y.), an 18-year veteran of the House who has also opted against running for reelection. Thirty House members — 19 Democrats and 11 Republicans — have announced that they will not seek reelection next year, covering a wide range of congressional seniority, post-House plans and reasons for jumping ship. Sixteen are retiring from public office, 11 are running for seats in the Senate, and three are eyeing other government positions.The list includes, most recently, Rep. Bill Johnson (R-Ohio), who accepted an offer to leadYoungstown State University as president; and Rep. Anna Eshoo (D-Calif.), who is hanging up her hat in Congress after 30 years. They are joined by Rep. Derek Kilmer (D-Wash.), the 49-year-old lawmaker who had a stint running the New Democrat Coalition; Rep. Adam Schiff (D-Calif.), who is one of three House members jockeying for a Senate seat; and Rep. Ken Buck (R-Colo.), who frequently draws media attention for criticizing the GOP’s stance on election denialism.Additionally, Rep. Sheila Jackson Lee (D-Texas) is running for Houston mayor, and Rep. Dean Phillips (D-Minn.) is mounting a longshot bid for the Democratic nomination for president. Both, however, can remain in Congress and run for reelection if they lose or drop out of their other races.

RFK Jr. leads 2024 candidates in favorability poll - Independent presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. currently leads the pack of 2024 presidential candidates with a high favorability rating among respondents in a Harvard CAPS-Harris survey. The poll, published Monday and shared with The Hill, found that 52 percent of respondents said they have a favorable opinion of Kennedy, while 27 percent of respondents had an unfavorable opinion of him. Kennedy also had the highest net favorability rating of 25 points. Kennedy scored significantly higher than the runner-up, former President Trump, in terms of net favorability. While Trump was viewed favorably by 51 percent of respondents, he had a net favorability rating of 7 points — with 44 percent of respondents viewing the GOP front-runner unfavorably. When asked about their opinion on President Biden, 49 percent of respondents had an unfavorable opinion of the president, while 46 percent of those surveyed thought otherwise. The president scored a -2 net favorability rating. “Robert Kennedy has positioned himself to appeal to members of both parties though it is unclear how much of his ratings are from in depth knowledge of Kennedy vs. his popular family name,” said Mark Penn, co-director of the Harvard CAPS-Harris Poll. Kennedy also beat out other presidential hopefuls in the favorability ranking. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) came in fourth, with 44 percent of respondents saying they have a favorable opinion of the presidential hopeful and 38 percent responding unfavorably. The governor received a 6 point net favorability rating. Former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley was viewed favorably by 43 percent of respondents, while 29 percent of respondents had an unfavorable opinion of her. Still, at 14 points her net favorability rating outranked that of DeSantis. Additionally, 37 percent of respondents had a favorable opinion of entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy, while 29 percent of those surveyed thought otherwise, according to the poll. Ramaswamy had a net favorability of 8 points — also outranking DeSantis. The findings come as Kennedy, who announced his 2024 presidential campaign in April, recently shared last month that he was switching from a Democrat to an independent in his presidential campaign. The new Harvard CAPS-Harris survey was conducted Nov. 15-16 with a total of 2,851 respondents participating in the survey. It is a collaboration of the Center for American Political Studies at Harvard University and the Harris Poll. The survey is an online sample drawn from the Harris Poll and weighted to reflect known demographics. As a representative online sample, it does not report a probability confidence interval.

Senate Democrats warn Manchin that running for president would risk disaster -Sen. Joe Manchin’s (D-W.Va.) flirtation with a third-party presidential bid after announcing his upcoming retirement from the Senate is sparking anxiety among Democratic senators who warn that Manchin would make a big mistake if he challenges President Biden. Democratic lawmakers say that if Manchin runs for president as an independent, it will hurt Biden’s reelection chances and could result in what they view as the nightmare scenario of electing Donald Trump to a second White House term. Democratic senators were less concerned about a potential Manchin presidential run a few months ago, when they thought he was still likely to run for another Senate term. Since then, Biden’s polling numbers have gotten worse in a hypothetical head-to-head match-up with Trump, who faces 91 felony charges, and Manchin has announced he will retire from the Senate after next year. “I think it would be very, very unfortunate if Joe Manchin decided to do that,” Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D-Mich.) said of a possible Manchin presidential run. “I know he’s a supporter of President Biden and has been an important person here in the U.S. Senate in terms of getting things done. And he knows that if he were to step in [to the race] that it would make it much more likely Donald Trump would be president again, and I know Joe Manchin doesn’t want that,” Stabenow said. Manchin, however, last week didn’t rule out the possibility of running for president on the No Labels ticket or another independent platform, telling CBS News that he has “plenty of time” to make a decision. And he rejected fears voiced by other Democrats that he would sink Biden’s reelection if he throws his hat into the ring. “I don’t buy that scenario,” Manchin told CBS’s Norah O’Donnell. “I’ve heard that. And — and I wouldn’t buy that scenario, because if you look back in history, how things have played out, I don’t think that they thought Ross Perot would elect Bill Clinton,” referring to three-way presidential election race in 1992. Manchin told NBC’s “Meet the Press” host Kristen Welker that he would “absolutely” consider a run for president. “I will do anything I can to help my country,” he said. Manchin has argued during much of Biden’s presidency that national politics have become too polarized and that millions of voters in the middle of the ideological spectrum don’t have enough of a voice in Washington. “I’m going to do everything in my power to make sure, to mobilize that moderate, sensible, common-sense middle,” he pledged.

Trump expands lead over Biden in 2024 match-up: Poll - Former President Trump’s lead over President Biden in a hypothetical 2024 match-up is growing, according to a Monday poll. The Harvard CAPS-Harris Poll survey, shared with The Hill, shows Trump receiving 48 percent support among respondents, Biden received 41 percent and 11 percent said they did not know or were unsure who they’d vote for. The poll shows Trump has gained 2 percentage points since a similar survey was conducted in October, which placed the former president at 46 percent and Biden at 41 percent. When those who said they did not know or were unsure are asked which candidate they’re leaning toward, Trump sits at 53 percent while Biden is at 47 percent. The development comes against the backdrop of recent polling that shows Trump outperforming Biden in a handful of critical battleground states. A survey released earlier this month by The New York Times and Siena College found Trump leading Biden by 5 points in Arizona, 6 points in Georgia, 5 points in Michigan, 10 points in Nevada and 4 points in Pennsylvania. In The New York Times/Siena College poll, Biden outperforms Trump by 2 points in Wisconsin. But the Biden campaign has publicly sought to brush off the bad polling, arguing it’s still a year out from the election. “Predictions more than a year out tend to look a little different a year later. Don’t take our word for it: Gallup predicted an 8-point loss for President Obama only for him to win handily a year later,” Biden campaign spokesperson Kevin Munoz told The Hill earlier this month. “Or a year out from the 2022 midterms, when every major outlet similarly predicted a grim forecast for President Biden.” “Coming off those historic midterms, President Biden’s campaign is hard at work reaching and mobilizing our diverse, winning coalition of voters one year out on the choice between our winning, popular agenda and MAGA Republicans’ unpopular extremism. We’ll win in 2024 by putting our heads down and doing the work, not by fretting about a poll,” he added. The Harvard CAPS-Harris Poll was conducted between Nov. 15-16 with 2,851 registered voters. It is a collaboration of the Center for American Political Studies at Harvard University and the Harris Poll. The survey is an online sample drawn from the Harris Poll and weighted to reflect known demographics. As a representative online sample, it does not report a probability confidence interval.

‘Pipe down’: Biden allies step up calls for Dems to rally around president - Allies of President Biden are stepping up calls for Democrats to rally around the president following negative commentary and splits from inside the party over whether he should forgo reelection. Former President Obama’s senior adviser David Axelrod has been the most notable Democrat to cause a ruckus when he suggested earlier this month that Biden step aside and further advised that the president has a “50-50 shot” of winning in 2024. But some Democrats say comments like Axelrod’s aren’t helping especially as Biden continues to face poor polling numbers, encouraging the party to instead coalesce around the president to give him a boost. “We gotta pipe down the moaning and groaning and all the whining. There’s too much of that,” said former Rep. Joe Crowley (D-N.Y.), a onetime House Democratic Caucus chair. “I think that leaches into the psyche of the voters as well. That’s got to stop and I think at that point, you’ll start to see Biden’s numbers improve, certainly amongst Democrats, but I think voter-wide they’ll start to improve.” Steve Elmendorf, deputy campaign manager for John Kerry’s 2004 presidential run, said that there are clear challenges with Biden’s reelection campaign but Democrats complaining doesn’t help. “I’m not like, oh everything they do is great over there. Obviously, they need to constantly refine the message and figure out what works and there are challenges with various groups of voters and they need to figure those out. But I don’t think it’s helpful as a party for people to sort of run around publicly and complain.” The calls for Democrats to cut down on the negativity comes as Biden has been hit with a slew of bad polls in recent months. Former President Trump’s lead over Biden is also growing in a hypothetical 2024 match-up, with Trump receiving 48 percent support compared to Biden’s 41 percent, according to a Harvard CAPS-Harris Poll survey. That followed a New York Times and Siena College poll earlier this month that found Trump leading Biden in critical battleground states. But some say Biden has plenty of time to make up for his shortfalls.

Trump gag order appeal faces skeptical reception in US court - United States appeals court judges have signaled scepticism towards Donald Trump’s bid to overturn a gag order imposed on the former president in a federal criminal case in which he is accused of illegally trying to overturn his 2020 election defeat. It forbids Trump from publicly maligning any prosecutors, potential witnesses or court employees involved in the case. Trump lawyer D John Sauer argued on Monday that the order violates the US Constitution’s First Amendment right to freedom of speech while judges on the US Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia asked whether Trump’s charged rhetoric would threaten the integrity of his upcoming trial. “I don’t hear you giving any weight at all to the interests in a fair trial,” Judge Cornelia Pillard told Sauer. Pillard is one of three judges who heard Trump’s appeal of the gag order imposed by US District Court Judge Tanya Chutkan, who is overseeing the case. Chutkan ruled that public statements by Trump or his lawyers criticising prosecutors, court staff and potential witnesses could influence witnesses and lead to threats against people involved in the case. But Chutkan permitted Trump to “criticize the Justice Department, President Biden and herself. She also allowed him to maintain that the prosecution itself was a partisan retaliation against him,” The New York Times reported. “The order is unprecedented, and it sets a terrible precedent on future restrictions on core political speech,” Sauer said during the two-hour hearing. Trump, the frontrunner for the Republican nomination to challenge Democratic President Joe Biden in the 2024 election, has assailed officials involved in a range of criminal and civil cases he faces. He has called US Special Counsel Jack Smith, who brought the federal election-related charges, a “deranged lunatic” and a “thug”. Trump’s remarks about prosecutors and witnesses have pit his right to freedom of speech against the need for a fair trial next year. The gag order has been suspended during Trump’s appeal. Trump has pleaded not guilty in the case as well as all three other criminal cases.

Trump claims judge in fraud trial is ‘complete and total puppet’ of New York AG - Former President Trump claimed Saturday that the judge in his New York civil fraud trial is a “complete and total puppet” of New York Attorney General Letitia James.“Judge Arthur Engoron, the most overturned and stayed Judge in the State, and the Racist New York State Attorney General, the most corrupt & incompetent A.G. in the Country (Violent Crime Is Raging!), have FRAUDULENTLY Undervalued my properties, by many times, in order to make me look bad, and make the Judge’s original ridiculous finding of Fraud pass the ‘smell test,’ which it does not,” Trump said on Truth Social.Trump’s newest attack comes after the temporary lifting of a limited gag order by an appellate judge that prevented the former president and his attorneys from talking about Engoron’s staff.His comments also follow a denial of a motion for mistrial in the case, pushing back against a claim by Trump that the trial judge and his principal law clerk’s alleged bias against him had “tainted” the case. “This Judicial and Prosecutorial corruption and misconduct took place BEFORE THE TRIAL EVEN STARTED, & WITHOUT ANY KNOWLEDGE OF THE CASE,” the former president continued Saturday. “Judge Engoron just did what the highly partisan A.G. told him to do. He is her complete and total puppet!” New York Rep. Elise Stefanik (R), a staunch Trump supporter, added onto her original ethics complaint against Engoron on Friday, claiming the judge “wrongfully denied” Trump’s mistrial motion.Following the gag order lift, Trump immediately took to Truth Social to blast Engoron and his law clerk.“Judge Arthur Engoron has just been overturned (stayed!) by the New York State Appellate Division (Appeals Court), for the 4th TIME (on the same case!),” Trump posted Thursday.“His Ridiculous and Unconstitutional Gag Order, not allowing me to defend myself against him and his politically biased and out of control, Trump Hating Clerk, who is sinking him and his Court to new levels of LOW, is a disgrace,” he added.Despite the pushback, Engoron has already ruled the former president and his business are liable for fraud. James, in her case, alleged that the Trump Organization sought lower taxes and better insurance coverage by falsely inflating and deflating the value of its assets.The attorney general’s office is seeking some $250 million in financial penalties and to bar Trump — and his adult children — from operating businesses in New York.

Trump knocks prosecutor, ‘Radical Left Lunatics’ in Thanksgiving message --Former President Trump wished his supporters a happy Thanksgiving in a Truth Social post early Thursday while slamming New York’s attorney general, the judge overseeing his civil fraud case, President Biden and the “Radical Left Lunatics.” “Happy Thanksgiving to ALL, including the Racist & Incompetent Attorney General of New York State, Letitia ‘Peekaboo’ James, who has let Murder & Violence Crime FLOURISH, & Businesses FLEE; the Radical Left Trump Hating Judge, a ‘Psycho,’ Arthur Engoron, who Criminally Defrauded the State of New York, & ME, by purposely Valuing my Assets at a ‘tiny’ Fraction of what they are really worth in order to convict me of Fraud before even a Trial, or seeing any PROOF, & used his Politically Biased & Corrupt Campaign Finance Violator, Chief Clerk Alison Greenfield, to sit by his side on the ‘Bench’ & tell him what to do,” Trump said on his social media site. Trump also targeted Biden, accusing him of weaponizing the “Department of Injustice” against his predecessor in the Oval Office, as well as “all of the other Radical Left Lunatics, Communists, Fascists, Marxists, Democrats, & RINOS, who are seriously looking to DESTROY OUR COUNTRY.” “Have no fear, however, we will WIN the Presidential Election of 2024, & MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN!!!” Trump concluded. James, a Democrat, brought forth the civil fraud case against Trump, his adult sons and his business, alleging the value of assets was intentionally inflated and deflated to pay less in taxes and receive better insurance coverage. Trump has consistently stated James is incompetent and a racist and that the trial should not be happening. Engoron, who is overseeing the trial, has already ruled Trump is liable for fraud in the case. And Greenfield has become a recent target for the former president after Trump accused her of violating court rules by donating to Democratic causes. Trump has made disparaging posts about each of the three officials in his case, so much so that Engoron imposed a gag order barring participants in the case from smearing court staff. The gag order was temporarily lifted last week after Trump’s legal team claimed it “cast serious doubt” on Engoron’s ability to be impartial in the case. An appeals judge expressed concern that the gag order restricted Trump’s free speech, meaning he can now comment freely on Engoron’s staff amid the appeals process.The former president’s legal team requested a mistrial in the case earlier this month, but the motion was denied.

Trump’s fraud trial media strategy gives glimpse of what’s to come - Incendiary rhetoric, performances for the cameras and gripes with the judge seem all but certain to be hallmarks of former President Trump’s hush money criminal trial, which is expected to take place in New York City early next year. The battle will play out just steps from the state courthouse where Trump’s civil fraud case is unfolding — and which may be offering a glimpse of what’s to come. Two of Trump’s lawyers on the upcoming hush money case, Susan Necheles and Todd Blanche, were spotted taking notes at the fraud case and conferring on the defense side of the courtroom. Some of the civil fraud case witnesses could also appear in the hush money trial. In the hush money case, Trump faces 34 charges of falsifying business records linked to payments amounting in a combined $280,000 made to former porn actress Stormy Daniels and former Playboy model Karen McDougal to cover up allegations of an affair. While hush money itself is legal, prosecutors charged Trump over how he reimbursed his then-fixer, Michael Cohen, who paid the women. In a surprise, Trump last week this dropped his months-long bid to move the criminal case to federal court. Although doing so would not have made the indictment subject to a presidential pardon, moving courts would’ve broadened the jury pool beyond deep-blue Manhattan and doomed the chances of the proceedings being broadcast. A federal judge previously rejected Trump’s efforts to move courts, ruling the case was not sufficiently connected to his role as president, causing Trump’s counsel to appeal. But Tuesday, his lawyers without explanation filed documents voluntarily dismissing that effort. Necheles and Blanche did not return requests for comment. Moving ahead in state court changes the dynamic in several respects, including the possibility that Trump’s trial will be televised. Media outlets, including Nexstar Media Group, the parent company of The Hill, have mounted attempts to enable Trump’s criminal trials to be broadcast, without much luck.In Washington, D.C., where the former president faces federal charges over his efforts to subvert the 2020 election results, Trump and his legal team sided with media outlets and“demanded” the trial be televised.

Trump Georgia co-defendant stares down jail time over fiery social media posts -- Fulton County District Attorney Fani Willis (D) and lawyers for a defendant in the Georgia racketeering case involving former President Trump will face off in court Tuesday as the state’s top prosecutor seeks to revoke Harrison Floyd’s bond over incendiary social media posts. Floyd, a leader of Black Voices for Trump who was charged alongside the former president, could see his pretrial freedom revoked over social media posts that prosecutors have portrayed as an attempt to obstruct justice by intimidating future witnesses and communicating “directly and indirectly” with co-defendants in the case. Floyd is the first of 19 defendants at risk of being detained over his posts, which prosecutors claim violate the pretrial release conditions he agreed to after being charged in the sweeping case that centers on an alleged criminal enterprise to overturn Georgia’s 2020 presidential election results to benefit Trump. It raises questions over how Willis might approach similar concerns with Trump’s own inflammatory social media as a future trial creeps closer. “The Trump claim to free speech is going to be stronger than the claims of any of the other co-defendants, because he’s running for president,” said Kay Levine, a law professor at Emory University. “But I still don’t think that entitles him to say literally anything — in person, at a press conference, on social media, in any other forum.” Willis’s motion targets multiple posts Floyd made this month to his 26,000 followers on X, the platform formerly known as Twitter, and in a podcast interview. The posts make mention of known state witnesses, including Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger and Gabe Sterling, chief operating officer of the secretary of state’s office. “Look, the truth is that @GaSecofState & @GabrielSterling are the pieces of [shit] you should be mad at,” Floyd tweeted Nov. 7, using a poop emoji to replace the expletive. Floyd also made several posts about Fulton County poll worker Ruby Freeman, who is directly linked to the charges he faces after allegedly attempting to convince her to make false statements about 2020 election operations under the guise of offering her help. He has pleaded not guilty. Willis wrote in her filing that those posts have led to “renewed threats of violence” against Freeman. Both Floyd and Trump agreed to pretrial release conditions that require they not communicate “in any way” about the facts of the case with co-defendants and witnesses. They also may not intimidate co-defendants or witnesses in the case.

Elon Musk’s X files lawsuit against Media Matters - X, a social media platform owned by billionaire Elon Musk, has filed a lawsuit against Media Matters for America, alleging that the liberal media watchdog group defamed his platform after a published report on how ads for major advertisers appear next to posts with antisemitic rhetoric. In a complaint filed in the U.S. District Court for the Northern District of Texas Fort Worth Division on Monday, X alleged that Media Matters “exploited” the platform’s features of allowing users to control the content they see on their feed by creating a secret account designed to evade normal safeguards and manipulate “every aspect of the system through which posts and advertisements appear, ultimately creating the side-by-side images of objectionable content and advertisements.” X also alleged Media Matters only followed 30 users on its secret account – which is less than the average user follows on its platform – noting that the watchdog’s “excessive scrolling and refreshing generated between 13 and 15 times more advertisements per hour than would be seen by a typical user, essentially seeking to force a situation in which a brand ad post appeared adjacent to fringe content.” “​​The overall effect on advertisers and users was to create the false, misleading perception that these types of pairings were common, widespread, and alarming,” the lawsuit reads. “Media Matters hid its manipulations through omissions, deceptive image selections, misrepresentations, and secrecy settings.” The lawsuit comes days after Musk wrote in an X post that his company will file a lawsuit against Media Matters after the liberal watchdog published its report on the platform last week, where it detailed how major advertisers on the platform had their ads shown alongside white supremacist content. “The split second court opens on Monday, X Corp will be filing a thermonuclear lawsuit against Media Matters and ALL those who colluded in this fraudulent attack on our company, Musk wrote in his Saturday post. Media Matters President Angelo Carusone said in a statement, “This is a frivolous lawsuit meant to bully X’s critics into silence. Media Matters stands behind its reporting and looks forward to winning in court.” Musk, who purchased the platform formerly known as Twitter in October 2022, also saw controversy where he was criticized for engaging in antisemitic rhetoric on his platform. As a result, major companies such as IBM, Disney, Lionsgate, Paramount, and Apple announced they were leaving the social media platform. The European Union (EU) also halted advertising on the platform. Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton (R) announced on Musk’s platform that he has launched an “investigation into Media Matters for potential fraudulent activity,” noting Musk’s accusation of the liberal watchdog “manipulating data.”“If you know me, you know I’m committed to truth and fairness. Here’s the truth. Not a single authentic user on X saw IBM’s, Comcast’s, or Oracle’s ads next to the content in Media Matters’ article,” Twitter CEO Linda Yaccarino wrote in an X post in defense of the company.

Crypto Exchange Bullish Completes Purchase of CoinDesk: WSJ -- Cryptocurrency exchange Bullish has bought CoinDesk, the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) reported on Monday.Bullish, which is run by former New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) President Tom Farley, bought 100% of CoinDesk from crypto-focused investor Digital Currency Group (DCG) in an all-cash deal, the Journal said. Financial terms of the deal were not disclosed.CoinDesk will operate as an independent subsidiary of Bullish, Farley said, according to the report. An editorial committee will also be formed, chaired by former Wall Street Journal Editor-in-Chief Matt Murray. CoinDesk's current management team will remain in place.

Barry Silbert's crypto empire continues to spiral as ex-NYSE president buys news site CoinDesk -After months on the market, crypto news site CoinDesk has finally been acquired by a business that's run by the former president of the New York Stock Exchange.Bullish, a digital asset exchange led by ex-NYSE chief Tom Farley, has purchased CoinDesk from Barry Silbert's Digital Currency Group. It's the latest sign that Silbert's crypto empire, which had vaulted its founder into the billionaire ranks, continues to fall apart.CoinDesk will operate as an independent subsidiary of Bullish. Terms of the purchase haven't been disclosed, but the Wall Street Journal reported that it's an all-cash deal.DCG, which first acquired CoinDesk for $500,000 in 2016, reportedly received several unsolicited offers for more than $200 million for the news site earlier this year. CoinDesk first began looking into a possible sale in January, enlisting the help of advisors at Lazard. In July, however, a $125 million purchase agreement from a consortium of investors fell through.In August, CoinDesk reportedly laid off around 16% of its staff. Farley said Bullish "will immediately inject capital" into the media company to help scale the operation.Silbert called CoinDesk one of DCG's "best investments of all time," in a post on X, formerly Twitter, Monday morning.Michael Casey, Coindesk's chief content officer, told CNBC that the Bullish deal came together "very quickly," and that his side of the newsroom is excited for the new strategic alliance.The existing management team will remain in place, though an extra layer has been added to ensure journalistic independence. Matt Murray, who was previously the editor-in-chief of The Wall Street Journal, will head a newly formed editorial committee designed to protect the publication's autonomy.CoinDesk, which launched in 2013, is best known in parts of the crypto universe for breaking the story about potential balance sheet improprieties at Sam Bankman-Fried's Alameda Research. That reporting sparked a downward spiral at crypto exchange FTX, ending with the collapse of the company and Alameda that month, and the arrest and ultimate conviction of Bankman-Fried.The contagion from the FTX meltdown hit CoinDesk sister company Genesis, a crypto lender also owned by DCG that filed for bankruptcy protection after suffering crippling losses from the collapses of FTX and hedge fund Three Arrows Capital.Genesis is the subject of a Securities and Exchange Commission charge alongside crypto exchange Gemini. Last month, New York Attorney General Letitia James filed suit against DCG and Genesis for allegedly defrauding investors of more than $1 billion. Meanwhile, Genesis sued its parent company, DCG, in September in an effort to recover $620 million in unpaid loans.Silbert has also faced challenges at DCG's crown jewel, Grayscale Investments, which manages the $32 billion Grayscale Bitcoin Trust, better known by its ticker GBTC

US Settles With World's Largest Crypto Exchange: Binance 'CZ' To Step-Down, Pay $4.3 Billion Fine -Confirming the leaks that hit markets yesterday, The Wall Street Journal reports that Changpeng Zhao ('CZ'), founder and chief executive of Binance, the world's largest crypto exchange, plans to step down and plead guilty to violating criminal U.S. anti-money laundering requirements, in a deal meant to allow the company to continue operating.Zhao founded the firm in 2017 and turned it into the most important hub of the global crypto market.The CFTC claimed that Binance for years didn’t have a program to prevent and detect terrorist financing and money laundering. It also said Binance gave Americans access to derivatives such as futures or swaps that can only be traded in the U.S. if they are offered on regulated platforms. Binance never registered with U.S. regulators, making its risky leveraged products off-limits to American traders, the CFTC said.U.S. government authorities are expected to unveil the settlement with Binance Holdings on Tuesday, resolving a years-long investigation into the world's largest crypto exchange, according to a source familiar with the matter.The deal, which will include charges against individuals and resolve allegations of violations of the Bank Secrecy Act and other U.S. laws, involves multiple U.S. agencies: the Justice Department, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and the Treasury Department's Financial Crimes Enforcement Network, the source said.CZ reportedly will agree to pay fines totaling $4.3 billion, which includes amounts to settle civil allegations made by regulators Binance Coin - the token tied to the exchange's performance - was choppy on the news today but holding its gains from the leak yesterday... Zhao resides in the United Arab Emirates - a nation that remains welcoming to crypto even as countries such as China and the U.S. have cracked down on the unregulated industry

Binance was slapped with a $4.3 billion fine because it let groups like Hamas and ISIS receive funds: Treasury Department Binance on Tuesday reached a settlement with US regulators — including the justice and treasury departments — to pay $4.3 billion in fines for violating anti-money laundering and sanctions laws. Changpeng "CZ" Zhao, the cofounder of Binance and a central figure in the crypto world, is also stepping down as CEO under the settlement. The treasury department said Binance failed to report over 100,000 suspicious transactions involving terrorist groups, ransomware, child sexual exploitation material, and scams. Chief among these is the accusation that Binance was used to send money to the al-Qassam Brigades, the militant wing of Hamas, the Palestinian Islamic Jihad, al-Qaeda, and the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria. The Hamas transactions were acknowledged in February 2019 by Binance's chief compliance officer at the time, Samuel Lim, according to a Commodity Futures Trading Commission lawsuit filed in March against the crypto exchange. Lim had been told about "HAMAS transactions," and responded by saying that terrorists often send "small sums" of money because "large sums constitute money laundering," the CFTC complaint said. "Can barely buy an AK-47 with 600 bucks," the colleague replied, per the complaint. The complaint outlined several other messages between Lim and his staff that regulators said were clear signs Binance knew illegal transactions could and were being made through its services. "I HAZ NO CONFIDENCE IN OUR GEOFENCING," Lim was told by a Binance employee, who was tasked with reporting money laundering, the complaint said. On top of Tuesday's settlement, which also resolves the March CFTC complaint, Zhao is pleading guilty to breaking anti money-laundering law, per the justice department. Zhao will personally pay $50 million in fines, and faces up to 18 months in prison, The New York Times reported. The settlement represents the culmination of long-running scrutiny from regulators against the cryptocurrency exchange. The justice department opened an investigation into Binance's compliance with anti money laundering law in 2018. "Binance became the world's largest cryptocurrency exchange in part because of the crimes it committed — now it is paying one of the largest corporate penalties in U.S. history," Attorney General Merrick Garland said on Tuesday. Binance and its former CEO struck an upbeat tone after the settlement was announced. Binance acknowledged the settlement and Zhao's resignation in a blog on Tuesday, saying Richard Teng — who was the global head of regional markets — would take over as CEO.

Binance and CEO plead guilty, agree to pay billions in fines — Binance Holdings Ltd. and its Chief Executive Officer Changpeng Zhao pleaded guilty to criminal charges for anti-money laundering and U.S. sanctions violations, including allowing transactions with Hamas and other terrorist groups, under a sweeping deal with the Justice department designed to keep the company operating. Binance agreed to plead guilty to criminal charges and pay over $4 billion in penalties. Zhao, who agreed to step down and pay a $50 million fine as part of the settlement, appeared in court in Seattle Tuesday to plead guilty. The deal, which includes the Treasury Department and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, ends a years-long investigation into the cryptocurrency exchange. In a document unsealed on Tuesday, Binance was charged with three counts, including money laundering violations, conspiracy to conduct an unlicensed money transmitting business, and US sanctions violations. Binance is paying a criminal fine of $1.8 billion and forfeiting $2.5 billion, according to court filings unsealed Tuesday. Binance's violations included failure to prevent and report suspicious transactions with terrorists, including Hamas' Al-Qassam Brigades, Palestinian Islamic Jihad, Al Qaeda, and the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria, according to the Treasury department. The announcement comes as Israel and Hamas have been embroiled in a war that broke out more than six weeks ago. Binance allowed at least 1.1 million transactions, worth more than $898 million, involving customers in Iran, according to the court filing. "Binance became the world's largest cryptocurrency exchange in part because of the crimes it committed — now its paying one of the largest corporate penalties in U.S. history," Attorney General Merrick Garland said in a press release. Money from the fine will be split among DOJ, CFTC and other agencies. It includes $3.4 billion to the Treasury Department's Financial Crimes Enforcement Network and $968 million to its Office of Foreign Assets Control over Bank Secrecy Act and sanctions violations. "Binance turned a blind eye to its legal obligations in the pursuit of profit," Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said in a press release. "Its willful failures allowed money to flow to terrorists, cybercriminals and child abusers through its platform." The settlement negotiated between the two sides will resolve all allegations of criminal wrongdoing. Bloomberg News reported the settlement on Monday. Binance chose to "prioritize growth over compliance with US legal requirements," allowing it to conduct billions of dollars in transactions without gathering required information on customers or monitoring transactions, the US said. BNB, a cryptocurrency tied to the Binance ecosystem, slipped about 5.2% following the news. The token had hit a five-month high earlier in the day on the news that the DOJ would soon confirm its settlement with the exchange. Garland and Yellen held a press conference Tuesday to announce details of the settlement.

Binance users pull more than $1 billion from the exchange after CEO leaves, pleads guilty --Outflows from Binance have amounted to more than $1 billion in the past 24 hours, not including bitcoin, according to data from blockchain analysis firm Nansen, after founder and CEO Changpeng Zhao stepped down and pleaded guilty Tuesday in a deal with the Department of Justice. Meanwhile, liquidity has dropped 25% over the same time frame as market makers pull back their positions, according to data provider Kaiko. The outflows are significant and close to what happened previously when the exchange and its founder were charged with 13 securities violations by the SEC. The exchange's native token, BNB, is down more than 8% in the last 24 hours. Binance holds around $2.8 billion worth of BNB tokens, according to Nansen. And in March, after Binance phased out zero-fee trading of crypto asset pairs including bitcoin, a key incentive for customers, the exchange began to see its share of all spot trading drop. Binance remains the world's largest crypto exchange globally, processing billions of dollars in trading volume every year. Binance agreed to pay $4.3 billion in fines to the U.S. government. The plea deals end a yearslong investigation into the crypto exchange. Assets of more than $65 billion remain on the platform, according to Nansen, meaning that Binance is likely capitalized enough to withstand a sudden rush of investors away from the platform. And while withdrawals are on the up, there has not yet been a "mass exodus" of funds from the exchange. "After the momentary shock of the agreement with the announcement, there is no significant impact on most assets," said Grzegorz Drozdz, a market analyst at investment firm Conotoxia Ltd. "The cryptocurrency that seems to have suffered the most, losing more than 9%, is the BNB token from Binance. Of the top 100 cryptocurrencies, as many as 98 have seen a noticeable rebound over the past 24 hours. Bitcoin, meanwhile, fell 4% before rebounding and remaining with a loss of 1.3%," he said. Drozdz added that it may be a net positive for the industry now that the dispute with regulators is behind Binance and that the company has pledged to increase security measures. "This, combined with the likely imminent approval of an ETF based on bitcoin quotes, could positively impact the crypto market in the long term," said Drozdz.

Ex-Binance CEO Zhao urges judge to allow him to leave US before sentencing (Reuters) - Lawyers for former Binance CEO Changpeng Zhao are urging a U.S. judge to reject the Justice Department's request to bar him from returning to his home in the United Arab Emirates until he is sentenced for violating anti-money laundering requirements. Zhao's lawyers in a Thursday filing asked U.S. District Judge Richard Jones in Seattle not to reverse bail conditions set by a magistrate judge on Tuesday that would allow him to leave the U.S. while awaiting sentencing. Zhao, a citizen of the UAE and Canada, stepped down as CEO of Binance on Tuesday after pleading guilty to willfully causing the global cryptocurrency exchange to fail to maintain an effective anti-money laundering program. U.S. authorities said Binance broke U.S. anti-money laundering and sanctions laws and failed to report more than 100,000 suspicious transactions with organizations the U.S. described as terrorist groups including Hamas, al Qaeda and the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria. The company as part of a plea deal agreed to pay more than $4.3 billion. Zhao has agreed to pay a $150 million penalty to the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission, and prosecutors in a Wednesday filingsaid he faces up to 18 months in prison. The Justice Department has asked Jones by Monday to reverse a decision by U.S. Magistrate Judge Brian Tsuchida to allow Zhao to return home to the UAE ahead of his Feb. 23 sentencing after he agreed to release him on a $175 million bail bond. The government said it may be unable to secure his return if he chooses not to come back to the U.S. for sentencing, given that it has no extradition treaty with the UAE and Zhao is a multi-billionaire with significant assets. But Zhao's lawyers argued that the former CEO had demonstrated he was not a flight risk by agreeing to a "substantial" bail package and by voluntarily coming to the U.S. to accept responsibility for his actions. Allowing Zhao to return to the UAE would allow him to take care of his partner and three children and prepare them for his sentencing, defense lawyers argued. The Justice Department responded in a brief on Friday that its decision at Tuesday's hearing to recommend Zhao remain free before sentencing was "exceptional" and was only because it believed the risk of flight he posed could be "managed" by restricting his travel. "In the vast majority of cases, a multi-billionaire defendant who has pleaded guilty, faces possible prison time, and lives in a country that does not extradite its citizens to the United States would be detained," Justice Department lawyers said.

What Does Mustard Gas Have in Common with Crypto and Blockchain? – (interview transcript) If Sam Bankman-Fried’s conviction for perpetrating one of American history’s most jaw-dropping financial frauds has made you less keen to embrace the crypto trend, you’re in good company. Three-quarters of Americans who have heard of crypto have little confidence in its safety or reliability. Even the chip-making giant Nvidia has declared that crypto adds nothing useful to society, a sentiment recently voiced by legend short seller Jim Chanos, who stated that the technology is “well-suited for the dark side of finance.”Yet, miraculously, Bitcoin’s value has been on the upswing as BlackRock, the world’s largest asset manager, goes full steam ahead with its crypto investment product plans. Cryptomania is still with us, with many intelligent individuals holding on to their optimism.Elected officials like Senators Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) and Roger Marshall (R-KS) have registered urgent concern about digital assets and their potential ties to criminal activity by introducing, and reintroducing, the Digital Asset Anti-Money Laundering Act, legislation aimed at mitigating risks and providing scrutiny over industry members, such as miners and validators.Nevertheless, politicians like Congressman Tom Emmer (R-MN), often referred to as the “crypto king of Congress,” continue to champion cryptocurrency as an inherently patriotic pursuit, akin to apple pie. He is supported by numerous enthusiasts in Congress – a fact which may be attributed in part to what was revealed in a report from CoinDesk: One in three members of Congress took donations from FTX-related entities alone. And of course, who can forget Donald Trump’s release of an NFT collection in 2022, featuring the former president decked out as, among other things, a cowboy? Trump, once presenting himself as a crypto skeptic, now seeks to enrich himself from the NFT craze.Prominent MBA programs still tout the wonders of crypto, like Columbia Business School, which promotes crypto classes for students who can learn what it means to “unleash the power of blockchain in the world of traditional finance.” The Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania offers an online certificate program on the economics of blockchain and digital assets, boasting that it was the first Ivy League school and the first American business school to take enrollment payments in cryptocurrency.In the field of economics, a bewildering mix of skepticism and active promotion of cryptocurrency prevails. Nobel laureate Joseph Stiglitz has repeatedly cautioned against the appeal of crypto to criminals and its apparent lack of any socially useful purpose. In 2018, four other Nobel Prize winners, namely James Heckman, Thomas Sargent, Angus Deaton, and Oliver Hart, collectively labeled Bitcoin a bubble during a press conference, with Heckman drawing parallels to the infamous tulipmania in 17^th-century Netherlands. Deaton expressed his view that “the only advantage as far as I can see is you can be a crook.”By contrast, former Treasury Secretary and economist Larry Summers spent several years as an advisor to the disgraced crypto firm Digital Currency Group (DCG), currently under investigation for defrauding investors to the tune of over $1 billion.Into this fraught landscape comes Peter Howson, a technology writer, researcher, and Assistant Professor in International Development at Northumbria University, who once embraced the possibilities of cryptocurrency and blockchain to help solve global problems like poverty and climate change. The idea of reimagining money was, to him, “like reimagining power itself,” but when he began to look more closely, he was troubled. In the end, he concluded it was all a mirage and that only people benefitting were the least deserving – the criminally-minded and the greedy. Howson calls crypto “the biggest scam in history” in his new book, Let Them Eat Crypto: The Blockchain Scam That’s Ruining the World. He believes that cryptocurrencies and blockchain have progressed beyond being just scams or bubbles, becoming destructive forces with the potential to severely impact economies, societies, and the environment. It’s time, he believes, to get rid of them altogether.Howson spoke to the Institute for New Economic Thinking about the dangerous social visions and economic ruin that crypto and blockchain bring in their wake.

Was Sam Altman's Sacking By OpenAI's Board Over 'Q-Star' Breakthrough Seen As Threat To Humanity? -The mystery surrounding the brief dismissal of OpenAI CEO Sam Altman last Friday, who has since been reinstated, might revolve around a Reuters report that suggests Altman's removal was due to a breakthrough in artificial general intelligence (AGI), which could threaten humanity. In the days before Altman was sent off into exile, several staff researchers penned a letter to the board about a significant breakthrough - called Q* and pronounced Q-Star - that allowed the AI model to "surpass humans in most economically valuable tasks." Reuters sources said the AI milestone was one of the significant factors that led to the board's abrupt firing of Altman last Friday. Another concern was commercializing the advanced AI model without understanding the socio-economic consequences. The source said the model could solve mathematical problems but only "on the level of grade-school students, acing such tests made researchers very optimistic about Q*'s future success." Also, before Altman was sacked, he might have referenced Q* at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation in San Francisco: "Four times now in the history of OpenAI—the most recent time was just in the last couple of weeks—I've gotten to be in the room, when we sort of push the veil of ignorance back and the frontier of discovery forward," said Altman.My prediction is that a few weeks ago the team at OpenAI demoed either a machine that showed consciousness or AGI and Sam didn’t immediately tell the board and their feelings were hurt. pic.twitter.com/IUDcHiIwIUAn internal conflict at OpenAI has surfaced and is rooted in an ideological battle between those pushing for rapid AI advancement and those advocating for a slower, more responsible approach to development. Reuters spoke with an OpenAI spokesperson who confirmed the existence of the project Q* and the letter to the board before Altman's firing.

Majority in new survey worried about being tricked by scammer - The majority of respondents in a new survey say they are worried about being tricked by a scammer, making it the second-highest crime concern for Americans.In a Gallup survey released Tuesday, 57 percent of respondents say they either frequently or occasionally worry about being tricked by a scammer or providing access to a financial account.That concern ranks only behind the worry of being the victim of identity theft, which concerns 72 percent of Americans. Getting one’s car stolen or broken into is the only other crime that concerns a majority of Americans, with 51 percent saying they worry about it frequently or occasionally.Asked to indicate which crimes they worry about frequently or occasionally, 44 percent selected home burglary when they were not home; 42 percent selected having a school-aged child physically harmed while attending school; 37 percent said getting mugged; 33 percent said being attacked while driving a car; 30 percent said being a victim of a hate crime; 28 percent said getting murdered; and 27 percent said being sexually assaulted.The Gallup survey suggested people’s concerns about scammers may be justified. Asked to indicate which crimes they have experienced or someone in their household has experienced in the past 12 months, 8 percent said they have been tricked by a scammer into sending money or providing access to a financial account, and 15 percent said someone in their household has been victimized by this crime.

BankThink: Current regulations fall short in the face of tech-enabled fraud | American Banker -Financial regulations are the backbone of a secure and stable economy as they provide the requirements needed to ensure that financial institutions operate ethically and transparently. However, with the financial world becoming increasingly digital and complex, there is a growing concern that our current regulatory landscape isn't prepared to address the root causes of fraud. As such, it's crucial to undertake a thorough reassessment and adaptation of our approach.The regulatory landscape will evolve gradually as policymakers gain more insights and expertise in this area, but as of right now key industry concerns include ethical bias, security and privacy. These challenges not only affect financial institutions' compliance efforts but also their ability to protect customer data and most valuable assets.The financial sector saw an average cost of $5.9 million per data breach between March 2022 and March 2023, surpassing the global average of $4.45 million. These challenges are rooted in real-world issues, such as cybersecurity vulnerabilities, weak identity verification and insufficient data protection — despite substantial security investments. Economic incentives often favor profit over strict security, which only contributes to these ongoing challenges.Balancing data privacy and robust security in the financial sector remains an ongoing and complicated challenge that requires a collective effort from regulators, financial institutions and software solution providers. However, it's one that often starts with government regulations.Existing government regulations, while well-intentioned, grapple with significant limitations. While financial institutions are actively seeking innovative solutions to mitigate risks in the face of financial fraud, the most critical vulnerability lies in human error and vulnerability. Employees, whether through negligence or lack of awareness, can inadvertently expose sensitive financial data to bad actors, often bypassing existing regulatory measures. Furthermore, the regulations currently in place lack the flexibility needed to adapt swiftly to evolving cyber threats.These limitations have become even more evident with the rise of deepfake technology and the increasing prevalence of fraud. As institutions transition to biometric authentication for monetary transactions, current regulations struggle to keep pace with these advancements. While biometric authentication presents a promising solution, the regulatory framework is yet to holistically address the security and privacy concerns associated with its implementation.As bad actors continue to operate outside the boundaries of ethical conduct, it's evident that we must adapt and reinforce our regulatory framework. The rules must evolve to keep pace with their evolving strategies and ensure the protection of the financial industry and its clients.Given the challenges posed by current regulations, the path forward involves the implementation of comprehensive solutions and regulatory reforms. Regulators must demonstrate agility in responding to evolving threats while streamlining compliance procedures and reducing unnecessary burdens on financial institutions. International collaboration and information sharing are also crucial, especially in addressing cross-border financial fraud.As such, the importance of consumer education cannot be overstated. An informed public serves as the primary line of defense against fraudulent activities. These proposed reforms are not just a necessity but a strategic imperative in our ongoing battle against financial fraud, underlining the need for a holistic overhaul of the regulatory landscape to safeguard the financial industry and its stakeholders effectively.

Hacker chutzpah: Ransomware group says it reported victim to SEC - Cybercriminal group Alphv said it reported a victim of one of its ransomware attacks to the Securities and Exchange Commission for supposedly violating the regulator's new rule mandating publicly traded companies report substantial cybersecurity incidents. The company, financial software firm MeridianLink, confirmed it suffered an attack but had not yet determined the extent of personal information compromised."MeridianLink recently identified a cybersecurity incident," a spokeswoman for the company said Friday. "Safeguarding our customers' and partners' information is something we take seriously. Upon discovery, we acted immediately to contain the threat and engaged a team of third-party experts to investigate the incident."The spokeswoman added that the company had identified "no evidence of unauthorized access to our production platforms" and that the incident caused minimal business interruption."If we determine that any consumer personal information was involved in this incident, we will provide notifications, as required by law," the spokeswoman said. "We have no further details to offer currently, as our investigation is ongoing.MeridianLink counts many credit unions and some community banks as customers. The company reported $288 million in revenue last year.MeridianLink did not have to report the incident in an 8-K filing, as Alphv claimed, because theSEC's new rule regarding material data breaches does not take effect until next month. Rather, cybersecurity experts said the report was merely a means of putting additional pressure on MeridianLink, which Alphv is extorting via the threat of releasing the data it stole.The SEC's rule gives publicly traded companies four days to report a security incident from the time that the company determines it to be "material." Alphv said it compromised MeridianLink on Nov. 7. Alphv posted on Wednesday on its victim-shaming website about the SEC complaint it said it filed.

Podcast: What fintechs think of the CFPB's proposed data-sharing rule | American Banker (includes transcript) Welcome to the American Banker Podcast. I'm Penny Crosman. The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau has come out with its long awaited rule on data sharing: Dodd-Frank Act section 1033 on consumer access to financial records. Here to share their take on the proposed rule are Penny Lee, president and CEO of the Financial Technology Association, and Steve Boms, who is executive director of the Financial Data and Technology Association in North America. Welcome Penny and Steve.

'Unprecedented': Banks' lobbying blitz against capital rules Toutou Marsden, owner of Dell-Lea Wedding & Events in Chichester, New Hampshire, traveled to Washington, D.C., last week on an unusual mission for an event planner. She along with dozens of small-business owners from across the country roamed the halls of Capitol Hill on Nov. 14 to lobby against proposed new capital rules for banks that, they argued, would hurt their access to loans. "There is going to be an impact," Marsden said in an interview. "That's the goal of why we're here today. If anything, at least they know what our concerns are." Largely seen as the brainchild of Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr, federal regulators' so-called Basel III endgame proposal would raise capital requirements significantly for some banks — especially larger ones— and has been fiercely opposed by the industry. Marsden and the other business owners were convened in Washington by Goldman Sachs, through its policy advocacy organization 10,000 Small Business Voices. Normally focused on the reauthorization of Small Business Administration lending, the organization lately has taken an interest in Basel III. Along with the in-person showing, the group submitted a comment letter signed by 3,000 small-business executives that raised concerns about the plan's potential impact on credit availability. The banking industry's opposition campaign has centered on the impact on small-business owners and consumers, channeling logic used to support 2018 legislation by Sen. Mike Crapo, R-Idaho, to raise the thresholds at which banks became subject to tougher regulatory requirements, and to oppose the Dodd-Frank Act more than a decade ago. Changes to capital requirements for banks directly bleed into small-business or consumer borrowing rates, the argument goes, raising prices for everyone if federal regulators toughen the requirements or lowering prices if they relax them. "When there are tighter restrictions, when financial institutions have to hold so much more capital because it's required by the Federal Reserve, there is going to be a lot more selectiveness in regard to what loans are going to be available, and so if there's less money out there available for us to pursue or to ask for," Marsden said. "When there's less money to go around, I think that's where the concerns are." Regulators insist that the ultimate cost of the new capital requirements to consumers would be negligible at best. Speaking on stage during an event Friday hosted by The Clearing House — a payment processor owned by the nation's largest banks — the Fed's Barr argued that the costs were well worth the added resilience they would bring to the banking system. "If there's no competition at all, and all of [the additional cost] is passed through to the borrower, the average increase would be 0.03%," he said. "So, it's a very, very small change in the cost of credit, and a significant increase in the resiliency of the banks." But, based on views expressed by lawmakers during a pair of congressional hearings with bank regulators last week, it appears the industry's lobbying blitz is beginning to win over more legislators. While Republicans have made their objections to the Basel III proposal clear for months, Democrats unexpectedly raised questions about the need for higher regulatory capital requirements and expressed concerns about reciprocal impacts on credit availability during the hearings. "These rules don't affect any banks in Montana, but they do affect the big guys that affect Montana," said Sen. Jon Tester, D-Mont., in the Senate Banking Committee's hearing last Tuesday. "From a small-business standpoint, if this rule doesn't work, it's gonna raise hell with the economy of my state." Skeptical Democrats included moderates such as Tester and Rep. Jim Himes, D-Conn., who supported Crapo's reform bill in 2018, as well as typical regulatory advocates such as Rep. Brad Sherman, D-Calif. The positions staked out by these lawmakers took some policy analysts by surprise. "It feels unusual for Democrats to push back so strongly against proposals from one of their own. I can't tell if it's the fruit of bank lobbying, but I do think the Dems are spooked by Barr going too far and bridling the economy ahead of an election where Democrats are the incumbent," said Derek Tang, an economist and the CEO of Monetary Policy Analytics.

Regulators extend comment period on long-term debt proposal — Federal regulators are extending by about six weeks the comment period for a proposed rule that would impose long-term debt requirements on more large banks. The comment period originally was set to end on Nov. 30; the new deadline is Jan. 16. "The agencies extended the comment period to allow interested parties more time to analyze the issues and prepare their comments," the Federal Reserve Board, Office of the Comptroller of the Currency and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. said in a joint release Wednesday. The extension comes as the agencies take increasing heat from the industry and its congressional allies to pare down a slate of regulations developed in response to this year'sbanking crisis. Regulators recently extended the comment period on a joint proposal to amend capital requirements for large banks and sought to gather more information about the potential impact of the changes.Banks and other interested parties will now have until Jan. 16 to weigh in on the so-called Basel III endgame package and the long-term debt requirement proposed by the three agencies. Each proposal initially had been given a 120-day comment period that was set to end Nov. 30 before the extensions.The long-term debt plan was issued in August. Regulators say an additional cushion of subordinated debt would improve resolutions of firms with assets of $100 billion or more by requiring them to hold minimum eligible outstanding long-term debt equal to the greater of 6% of their risk-weighted assets, 2.5% of total leverage exposure or 3.5% of average total consolidated assets. Banks must comply within three years of the final rule's enactment, during which time firms will gradually need to ramp up compliance.Currently, only the largest banks — global systemically important banks, or GSIBs — are required to maintain long-term debt as part of their total loss absorbing capacity — TLAC — requirement. But regulators say failures earlier this year demonstrated that even banks down to $100 billion of assets can pose systemic risks. The agencies are seeking to address the lingering systemic vulnerabilities highlighted by the failures of Silicon Valley Bank, Signature Bank and First Republic Bank in the spring. FDIC Chairman Gruenberg has said the long-term debt would not only reduce the incentive for depositors to run, but also cushion the blow to uninsured depositors in the event of a failure, reduce the resolution costs sustained by the Deposit Insurance Fund and offer the agency additional resolution options other than merging a failed firm with another large institution.While the long-term debt plan was initially met with a more muted response compared to other regulatory proposals like capital hikes, trade groups representing the largest banks have nonetheless balked at the requirement.Some officials at the regulatory agencies also expressed concerns even as they ultimately approved proposing the measure for comment. Fed Govs. Michelle Bowman and Christopher Waller previously raised issues with requiring larger banks to hold long-term debt, saying the plan could be too onerous for certain firms.

Gutting Big Bank Capital Rules? What’s Really Behind Republicans’ Feigned Outrage Over Sexual Harassment at FDIC - By Pam and Russ Martens - Last Tuesday the U.S. Senate Banking Committee convened for a hearing to take testimony from the key federal banking regulators – ostensibly to get more clarity on why the second, third and fourth largest bank failures in U.S. history had occurred this past Spring and to learn what regulators were doing to restore public confidence in the banking sector.But instead of dealing with critical banking issues like the safety and soundness of the U.S. banking system, one Republican Senator after another used big chunks of their allotted time to talk about a Wall Street Journal article that had conveniently appeared just the day prior with the clickbait headline: (Paywall) “Strip Clubs, Lewd Photos and a Boozy Hotel: The Toxic Atmosphere at Bank Regulator FDIC.”While the allegations of sexual harassment at the FDIC are serious and should spark a thorough investigation, it’s the job of the U.S. Equal Employment Opportunity Commission (EEOC) to launch investigations and make findings in such matters. Senators can also ask the Government Accountability Office (GAO) to conduct an investigation and issue a report, as it has done in sexual harassment cases at numerous other federal agencies.A different agenda appeared to be at play in the hearing. Martin Gruenberg, a Democrat, has been the Chair of the FDIC since January and is actively pursuing higher capital rules for the largest banks. (No community bank would be impacted by the proposed rules.) Toppling Gruenberg would leave an evenly split vote when the FDIC votes on the new capital rules, with two Republican votes and two Democrat votes on the Board. Since it takes a majority vote to finalize a rule, the new capital rules would very likely not go forward – an outcome for which Wall Street’s mega banks have heavily lobbied and bankrolled with millions of dollars. Some of the Senators’ feigned shock and outrage over sexual harassment at the FDIC appeared tightly scripted. Senator Cynthia Lummis, a Republican from Wyoming, had this to say to Gruenberg at the hearing: “We know some of the employees who harassed women at the FDIC found employment at other agencies. Great! Send them elsewhere instead of oust them from the system… “The careers of women have been stalled out; and the culture is skanky at the FDIC! It’s disgusting!” “Oust them from the system” is such a novel concept from the Party of Trump. Lummis is the same individual who supported Donald Trump despite 16 women’s claims of sexual assault or unwanted physical contact. Lummis supported Trump for President despite his Access Hollywood video admission where he confessed to the following: “I just start kissing them. It’s like a magnet. Just kiss. I don’t even wait. And when you’re a star they let you do it. You can do anything…Grab them by the pu**y. You can do anything.” In May, Donald Trump was found guilty by a jury for sexual abuse, battery and defamation of E. Jean Carroll over sexually assaulting her in a Bergdorf Goodman dressing room. (Read the Judge’s analysis of why Trump effectively “raped” Carroll here.) Where is the Republican outrage that Donald Trump is now the Republican Party’s leading candidate for the highest office in the United States – despite his indictments on 91 criminal charges? As Senate Republicans focus their shock and outrage in every direction except Donald Trump, the U.K. news publication, The Economist, featured a dark silhouette of Trump on its cover, writing the following inside:“This is a perilous moment for a man like Mr. Trump to be back knocking on the door of the Oval Office. Democracy is in trouble at home. Mr. Trump’s claim to have won the election in 2020 was more than a lie: it was a cynical bet that he could manipulate and intimidate his compatriots, and it has worked…“A second Trump term would be a watershed in a way the first was not. Victory would confirm his most destructive instincts about power. His plans would encounter less resistance. And because America will have voted him in while knowing the worst, its moral authority would decline.” America’s “moral authority”? What does that even mean anymore?

A Deep Dive into the Unprecedented Wall Street Journal Attack on FDIC Chairman Martin Gruenberg -By Pam and Russ Martens: November 21, 2023 ~ In seven of the past nine days, a Wall Street Journal article has been published attacking the culture of the bank regulator, the FDIC, and/or its Chairman, Martin Gruenberg, a Democrat and Biden nominee. The cumulative total of this attack so far is eight articles bylined by Rebecca Ballhaus (one was co-bylined with Andrew Ackerman); an unsigned Wall Street Journal video; and a podcast interview with Rebecca Ballhaus on her reporting about the FDIC and Gruenberg.According to one Ballhaus article, the Wall Street Journal investigation included “interviews with more than 100 current and former employees, including more than 20 women who quit.”The thrust of the unprecedented volume of articles in such a short span of time is that a culture of sexual harassment has existed for years at the FDIC, under both Republican and Democratic leadership. But after more than 100 interviews, the worst thing Bellhaus has come up with thus far regarding Gruenberg’s personal conduct is that he yelled at a female colleague for not consulting with him prior to scheduling his itinerary.The sexual harassment complaints are no doubt real and there are likely more serious ones hidden away with settlement payments and non-disclosure agreements. That’s because the FDIC sends teams of male-dominated bank examiners off to far-flung cities to examine banks and the teams live in the same hotel and socialize for extended periods. According to the reporting thus far, the worst of the sexual harassment complaints involving the FDIC run along these lines: “Women recounted instances of being sent naked photos from senior bank examiners, hearing that their male supervisors were visiting strip clubs with male colleagues and being subjected to discussions of how women needed to use sex to get ahead at the FDIC. One woman said a male colleague followed her back to her hotel room during a training trip. Another woman said a colleague complained to her that he wasn’t having enough sex and said: “Obviously if I walked into this office and you were naked, I’d f— you right here.”None of the allegations thus far involve allegations of sexual assault or rape – allegations that have been made by more than a dozen women against Donald Trump – the leading Republican contender for President of the United States.We used the internal search function at the Wall Street Journal as well as Google Search to check on the Journal’s coverage of the sexual assault allegations against Donald Trump. We found just six articles in the past four years involving Donald Trump and an allegation of sexual assault. That’s two articles less than have appeared in the past nine days about Gruenberg and the FDIC where no allegations of sexual assault or rape have yet to be made. So what’s really going on here?Gruenberg is aggressively pursuing higher capital rules for the mega banks on Wall Street which pose systemic risk to the U.S. banking system. (No community bank would be impacted by the proposed capital rules.) Toppling Gruenberg from the Chairmanship of the FDIC would leave an evenly split vote by its Board when the FDIC votes on the new capital rules, with two Republican votes and two Democrat votes. Since it takes a majority vote to finalize a rule, the new capital rules would very likely not go forward – an outcome that Wall Street’s mega banks have heavily lobbied for and bankrolled with millions of dollars.There is also some evidence that certain Republicans on the Senate Banking Committee and House Financial Services Committee are less than objective parties in efforts to discredit Gruenberg.The first Wall Street Journal article on the FDIC/Gruenberg matter appeared in print on November 14 under the headline “Sex, Booze and Bank Regulation.” Conveniently, the Senate Banking Committee had scheduled a hearing that same day with federal banking regulators, including Gruenberg.Repeatedly at the November 14 hearing, Republicans used the occasion to attack Gruenberg’s leadership at the FDIC and then those attacks were regurgitated in a news article at the Wall Street Journal.During the hearing, Republican Senator Mike Rounds of South Dakota asked to enter a copy of the first Wall Street Journal article into the record of the hearing. He then said this, suggesting he had advance information on what the Journal planned to publish going forward: Rounds: “After the publication of this report yesterday [on the digital version of the WSJ] I understand that, as you have stated for the Committee a few minutes ago, that you have informed the FDIC staff that the FDIC would hire an independent firm to conduct an assessment of these concerning allegations. It is also my understanding that there may be additional press reports coming as well. Are you going to be the object of any of these future reportings on this matter?” Ginning up the hysteria to oust Gruenberg from the FDIC are Republican Senators John Kennedy of Louisiana and Republican Senator Joni Ernst or Iowa. The Journal dutifully reported those calls for Gruenberg to resign. The editorial page of the Wall Street Journal has a long history of attacking regulators when they attempt to rein in the toxic and corrupt culture at Wall Street mega banks. On October 20, 2013, a month before JPMorgan Chase settled with regulators for $13 billion over its packaging of toxic mortgages which it had peddled to unwary investors, the Wall Street Journal editorial page ran an editorial headlined “The Morgan Shakedown.” It accused regulators of “confiscating roughly half of a company’s annual earnings for no other reason than because they can and because they want to appease their left-wing populist allies.” The Wall Street Journal has yet to speak out on why Jamie Dimon is allowed to keep his job at the largest bank in the United States despite a rap sheet that rivals the Gambino crime family.

Six Big Banks Forced to Declare $9.3 Billion in Additional FDIC Expenses; Another Reason Their Talons Are Out for FDIC Chair Gruenberg By Pam and Russ Martens: November 22, 2023 ~The biggest banks in the U.S. that have been serially bailed out by the Federal Reserve since they blew up the financial system in 2008, are ripping mad at the Chairman of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), Martin Gruenberg.In addition to the FDIC and other federal banking regulators’ proposed rule to increase capital requirements on the largest banks, the FDIC just issued a final rule on November 16 that will force six banks to report an FDIC special assessment expense totaling more than $9.3 billion in the final quarter of this year. (See chart above.)Jamie Dimon, Chairman and CEO of JPMorgan Chase, is hair-on-fire mad because his bank is getting hit with the whopping figure of approximately $3 billion according to the firm’s most recent quarterly filing (10-Q) with the SEC.The most recent 10-Q filings with the SEC for the other five banks estimate their FDIC special assessments as follows: $1.9 billion at Bank of America; $1.8 billion at Wells Fargo; $1.5 billion at Citigroup’s Citibank; $650 million at U.S. Bancorp; and $460 million at Truist.The FDIC’s special assessment results from the failure of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank in March, where banking regulators made a Systemic Risk Determination to cover uninsured deposits at the two banks to stem a spreading banking panic. The FDIC’s Deposit Insurance Fund that protects depositors at the nation’s commercial banks and savings associations experienced a related loss of $16.3 billion attributable to the protection of uninsured depositors. The FDIC’s governing law allows it to impose this special assessment on insured depository institutions to make up for the losses.What the big banks don’t like is that they are picking up the lion’s share of the losses. The FDIC argues that large amounts of uninsured deposits inherently make the banking system less safe and the banks that had the largest amounts of uninsured deposits as of December 31, 2022 must pay the piper for their imprudent concern for safety and soundness. (See our report: International Bank Study, Using 150 Years of Data, Shows Mega Banks Like the Big Four in the U.S. Produce Financial Instability and More Severe Crises.)Out of the approximate 4,100 federally-insured commercial banks in the U.S., the FDIC estimates that only 114 banks will be subject to the special assessment. That’s because the vast majority of banks in the U.S. honor the concept of being a federally-insured bank and keep the bulk of their deposits under the FDIC insurance cap of $250,000 per depositor, per bank. (See our report: At Year End, 4,127 U.S. Banks Held $7.7 Trillion in Uninsured Deposits; JPMorgan Chase, BofA, Wells Fargo and Citi Accounted for 43 Percent of That.) The figures presented in the chart above may actually underestimate the final dollar figures that will be paid by the banks. When the banks published those estimates in their 10-Qs, the FDIC had estimated the losses to the Deposit Insurance Fund at $15.8 billion from covering uninsured deposits at the two banks. As of November 16 when the final rule was passed, those losses had grown to $16.3 billion according to the FDIC.

FDIC forms new panel to conduct 'independent review' of agency — The Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. says it will establish a special board committee — co-chaired by directors Jonathan McKernan and Michael Hsu, who is also acting comptroller of the currency — to oversee an investigation into the agency's workplace culture. "The board supports taking all actions necessary to identify and address the root cause of the problem and to promote accountability," the agency said in a news release Tuesday. "The co-chairs may appoint up to three additional nonvoting members, likely from outside the FDIC, to join the special committee to advise and promote a diversity of views."The release described the review as "fully independent" from the board and said that third-party investigators will report only to the special committee. Since The Wall Street Journal published a story Nov. 13 about allegations of harassment at the agency, there has been debate over who would oversee the investigation of the FDIC's allegedly abusive workplace culture. FDIC Chairman Martin Gruenberg said a week ago that the FDIC had hired a law firm to conduct an independent review. Subsequently, Republican board members McKernan and Vice Chairman Travis Hill urged Gruenberg and the FDIC general counsel to step back from the investigation. They advocated for recusal to enable the entire bipartisan board to oversee the process.However, financial reform advocates like Better Markets CEO Dennis Kelleher voiced concerns that Hill should also abstain because of a potential conflict of interest."The Republican members of the FDIC board must not be involved in any such investigation [as] they have a direct conflict of interest because the vice chair becomes chair in the absence of a chair," Kelleher wrote in a release last week. "Given some are already calling for the removal of the chair, this is a possible result of the investigation."

Gruenberg unlikely to resign amid FDIC workplace scandal — Bipartisan concerns about allegations of harassment and a toxic workplace culture at the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. have led to calls for agency Chair Martin Gruenberg to resign, threatening the agency's regulatory agenda — including capital rules hotly opposed by banks. But experts say Gruenberg and the administration are unlikely to bow to that political pressure.Jaret Sieberg, a Washington analyst at TD Cowen, said the sprawling timeframe of the allegations outlined by the Wall Street Journal last week — allegations that span at least a decade and several regional offices — weaken the political case for Gruenberg's resignation. The fact that Travis Hill, the Republican vice chair of the FDIC, would assume the interim chairmanship upon Gruenberg's resignation would make the administration even more loath to push him out, Sieberg said. "It never seemed likely to us that Gurenberg would resign, as we believe Democrats would not want to lose control of the agency [and] media reports suggested these workforce troubles may have been worse under Jelena McWilliams, the former chair," Sieberg said. "That matters, as Hill served as McWilliams' deputy for policy."Todd H. Baker, a senior fellow at Columbia University said past FDIC chairs also shoulder the blame for insufficiently addressing workplace culture. But even without Gruenberg's resignation, the scandal could nonetheless slow the agency's efforts to get capital rules out the door."The problems at the FDIC took place under several chairs, two of whom were women. The issue is pervasive agency culture problems over many years," he wrote in an email. "The investigation and publicity will hurt the Agency's standing with Congress and will provide more ammunition for industry efforts to slow down pending capital proposals, but won't itself be determinative."If the FDIC chair were to be vacated, Republican Vice Chairman Travis Hill would take over as chair, leaving the FDIC with a 2-2 deadlock partisan makeup until the Senate confirms a Biden appointee — an already-deliberative confirmation process that Senate Republicans would be highly incentivized to delay."The fate of Gruenberg and Hill are tied together," Seiberg added. "If House Republicans want to investigate Gruenberg, then Senate Democrats could probe Hill. It would likely become mutual assured destruction."

Money Market Funds, Large CDs, Small CDs All Surged: Americans Figured it Out By Wolf Richter - Money market funds have been paying over 5% since about April 2023, up from near 0% in April 2022, and Americans are liking it. A lot. And that has forced banks to compete for deposits by offering attractive interest rates on CDs. And Americans have flocked to those too.Money market funds for retail investors rose by 0.6% in the latest reporting week from the prior week, by 2.5% over the past four weeks, and by 8.9% over the past three months, to $2.24 trillion, ICI (Investment Company Institute) reported on November 22. This includes funds that invest in government instruments, such as T-bills; funds that invest in tax-exempt securities; and prime funds that invest in non-Treasury assets.Those are just funds sold to retail investors. Money market funds (MMFs) are divided into two major categories in terms of who they’re targeted for, based on the language in their prospectus; and we look at them separately:

• Funds sold directly to retail investors (chart above)
• Funds sold to institutions such as an employer, trustee, or fiduciary on behalf of its clients, employees, or owners (chart below)

MMFs are mutual funds that invest in relatively safe, short-term securities, such as Treasury bills, repos, including what the Fed offers and calls “Overnight Reverse Repos” (ON RRPs), high-grade commercial paper, and high-grade asset-backed commercial paper.MMFs for institutions rose by 0.5% last week, by 2.2% over the past four weeks, but only by 1.4% over the past three months, after the dip in October, to $3.52 trillion.Individuals are indirectly among the holders of these funds since the institutions include employers, trustees, or fiduciaries who buy those funds on behalf of their clients, employees, or owners.Total MMF balances rose by 2.3% over the past four weeks and by 4.2% over the past three months, to $5.76 trillion.The ICI makes only the past 20 weeks of data available and excludes ETFs and funds that invest primarily in other mutual funds.The Federal Reserve releases a slightly different metric on a quarterly basis as part of its money stock series, currently through Q2, and it has been the same song. You can see how the balances swell when the Fed hikes rates, first in the 2017-2019 period, and then again big time this year (data only through Q2).Money-printing and money market funds. But note in the chart above how the mega-money-printing binge that started in March 2020 created so much liquidity that it went also into money market funds, even when they returned near 0%, which triggered its own set of problems as these funds had to buy T-bills, and their demand for T-bills pushed down the T-bill yield to 0% and even below 0%. This caused all kinds of fears that some of the MMFs could “break the buck” because their 0% income or even negative income didn’t cover the fees and expenses and could cause the NAV of the fund to drop below $1, which could trigger a run on the fund, which would then trigger forced selling by those funds, panic, contagion, and the whole schmear. Which is why the Fed offered overnight repurchase agreements (ON RRPs) to the MMFs. The ON RRPs did pay interest, and the Fed lifted that RRP interest rate with each rate hike. We have discussed RRPs and their now plunging balances here.

BankThink: Capping interest rates would end destructive cycles of debt | American Banker - Our 21st-century consumer economy operates almost entirely through credit and debt. In the past, consumers used cash for daily basic expenses, saved for rainy days and reserved credit for big purchases like cars and homes. But now even the smallest consumer transactions are often structured through some form of credit. People borrow more with credit than ever before. As of the second quarter, consumers amassed an extra $73 billion in debt, with overall debt levels rising by 4.5% from a year earlier, to reach $16.84 trillion, per Experian data. In doing so, American consumers have made themselves extremely vulnerable to a myriad of predatory lenders in this digital age. These lenders not only market to and prey upon those most at risk, but trap them in a destructive cycle of debt, surpassing a 600% annual percentage rate in some states. A proposed national interest rate cap of 36% will protect consumers from predatory lending practices that exploit their vulnerability and desperation. This 36% cap would also level the playing field for responsible lenders who offer fair and transparent products that help consumers build credit and wealth. Critics argue that the question of capping interest rates is nuanced and would limit access to credit for those who need it. This argument regarding access to credit is disingenuous and dangerous. High-cost small-dollar loans, for example, are marketed as short-term loans for emergency expenses, but the loans are widely known as "debt traps'' with some payday business models clearly dependent on borrowers defaulting and taking out back-to-back loans to cover the initial loan, subsequent fees and repeated defaults. Too many nonbank lenders operate without sufficient regulation. They can avoid usury caps by setting up their businesses in states that do not have maximum interest rate laws. Nonbanks can also partner with banks that are not bound by these state laws through something called a rent-abank scheme: The bank issues the loans but the nonbanks service them and collect higher rates. My home state, New Jersey, has its own 30% cap on all consumer loans. But if safe harbors exist in other states, predatory high-cost lenders can set up shop in those states without APR limits and offer higher cost loans to borrowers anywhere. We should note that the proposed national limits would not preempt New Jersey's, or any other states' existing regulations. In fact, they would strengthen their efforts to combat predatory lending by creating a nationwide standard. Another critique of the proposed cap is that small-dollar lenders cannot make enough profit to stay in business. Consumers shouldn't be subjected to usurious debt trap loans and possible financial ruin simply to maximize industry profits. The payday, auto title and installment loan companies alone make up multibillion-dollar industries that often prey on our most vulnerable communities. Redlining and other forms of historic discrimination have denied people of color, especially African Americans, access to credit for generations and made them prime targets of predatory lending. Exorbitant interest rates, which lead to higher rates of default, end up damaging credit scores and locking them out of the mainstream and less expensive finance markets. High-cost lending only perpetuates and widens the racial wealth gap and generational wealth disparities. The cap would require lenders to make loans that borrowers can afford to repay without falling deeper into debt.

BankThink: More competition — not interest rate caps — help the working class | American Banker -In September, Sen. Josh Hawley, R-Missouri, introduced legislation to cap the annual percentage rate for credit cards at 18%. While many people were caught off guard by a Republican making such a proposal, Hawley's legislation is only one of many recent attempts by members of both parties to implement price controls. And while price controls might have populist political appeal, they are a terrible policy that universally harms the people most in need of the item being controlled. The payments sector — both debit and credit markets — is no exception. One of Hawley's stump speeches demonstrates both the appeal and the faulty logic behind price controls. He insists that "Americans are being crushed under the weight of record credit card debt — and the biggest banks are just getting richer. Capping the maximum credit card interest rate is fair, common-sense and gives the working class a chance." The "big banks," just like "Wall Street," are always an easy target. They are a hazy, faraway force, and few people think about what they really do until something goes wrong. And nobody can argue with an interest rate that's fair, driven by common-sense and gives the working class a chance. So, how to arrive at that rate is the only question that remains. One alternative is the free enterprise model. Companies can compete to provide credit and payment services. They incur costs and try to charge a price that covers those costs. And, yes, they try to earn a profit. The more competitive the market, the "fairer" the price. That is, the more people competing to provide the service, and the more customers they provide it to, the more objectively we'll know what price is a "fair" one. Of course, none of this means that some people won't still think the price is unfair, or too high. And it doesn't mean that everyone will get exactly what they want. But the beauty of this system is that it provides the opportunity for anyone who doesn't like the outcome to jump in and provide the service at a lower — in their eyes, fairer — price. One alternative to this approach is to give elected officials (or bureaucrats) the power to determine which price is the fairest. If, for example, they think that credit providers are "just getting richer" off the backs of the working class, then they can simply set the price for everyone. The danger, of course, is that if credit providers can't cover their costs, they will no longer provide as much credit. And it doesn't take much imagination to guess which group of customers will lose in this scenario. Hint: It's not the best customers who barely need credit in the first place. Another alternative, though, is that Hawley gets into the business of providing credit. If Hawley, like his colleagues Sen. Bernie Sanders, D-Vermont, and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, D-New York, truly believes interest rates are too high, and the "biggest banks" are just charging too much so that they can get richer, it's a golden opportunity. If they're right, they'll provide cheaper credit to millions of people, while teaching those profiteering banks a lesson. Setting aside any emotions toward Wall Street, that's really how the free enterprise system works. In contrast, their top-down approach will likely have a small effect on the largest banks' profits, but a relatively larger negative impact on smaller credit providers and the people who have the hardest time getting credit.

CFPB fines Toyota financing arm for $60 million for car loan scam — The U.S. financing arm for Toyota was fined $60 million Monday by a federal consumer regulator for preventing car buyers from canceling add-ons to their loans. "Toyota's lending arm illegally withheld refunds, made borrowers run through obstacle courses to cancel unwanted services, and tarnished their credit reports," said Consumer Financial Protection Bureau Director Rohit Chopra. Toyota Motor Credit Corp., or TMCC, violated the Consumer Financial Protection Act by preventing customers from canceling loan add-ons that cost on average between $700 and $2,500 per loan, according to a consent order. It also failed to ensure refunds for voided services. TMCC is "one of the largest indirect auto lenders in the country," the CFPB noted in a statement on the fine. TMCC is ordered to pay $48 million in consumer redress and a $12 million civil money penalty to the CFPB's victims relief fund. The order also prohibits incentives for employees to sell add-on products. "Given the growing burdens of auto loan payments on Americans, we will continue to pursue large auto lenders that cheat their customers," Chopra said. The company "admitted no wrongdoing but agreed to the terms of the consent order with the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau to fulfill our commitment to continually provide ever-better service to our customers," Vincent Bray, senior manager of corporate communications for Toyota Financial Services, told CNBC. Between 2016 and 2021, more than 118,000 consumer calls to cancel add-on services were directed to a "retention hotline" where, after efforts to dissuade cancelations, consumers were told that only written requests would be honored, the CFPB found. Examples of add-ons include Guarantee Asset Protection, or GAP, to cover the difference between what is owed and what insurance pays in the event of a vehicle accident or theft; Credit Life and Accidental Health (CLAH) to cover a remaining loan balance if the owner dies or becomes disabled; and vehicle service agreements to reimburse for unwarrantied parts and services. TMCC did not refund prepaid GAP and CLAH premiums to customers who paid off loans or ended leases before the contracts ended, according to a release. It also miscalculated refunds for consumers who canceled their vehicle service agreements. The firm was also found to have violated the Fair Credit Reporting Act, which protects information provided on consumer reports, by failing to promptly correct inaccurate information it gave to credit reporting agencies about delinquent returns of leased vehicles, according to the order.

Home Loan banks should check more than collateral, FHFA chief says -Federal Housing Finance Agency Director Sandra Thompson said it's not enough for Federal Home Loan banks to ask whether they can extend credit to their members — they also need to consider whether they should.Speaking at an event hosted by the Bipartisan Policy Center in Washington on Monday, Thompson said the banks need to do more to assess the financial states of their member financial institutions before advancing them funds. "You can't just have collateral-based lending," she said. "You've got to take a look at the financial condition of the member, because if the bank fails … those losses get absorbed by other banks and it's a bigger ecosystem. The Home Loan banks say they've never had a loss, but when a loss takes place … all will pay, we pay, the public pays."The remarks were Thompson's first public comments since her agency published its much-anticipated report on the Home Loan Bank System earlier this month. The 115-page reportdetails the evolution of the system from its roots as a liquidity provider to thrifts during the Great Depression to its role today as a funding source for some of the country's biggest banks and other financial institutions. During the event, Thompson cited key findings of the report, including that many banks that are eligible to take advances from the system have not taken the proper steps to ensure they are also positioned to borrow from the Federal Reserve's discount window, a reality that makes the Home Loan banks de facto lenders of last resort — a role, she said, they were never meant to fill. Specifically, Thompson noted the importance of having contracts in place to allow assets to be moved from a Home Loan bank to the Fed in a pinch. During the failures of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank earlier this year, both institutions struggled to pledge collateral to the discount window in a timely manner. Though it is unclear whether a smoother experience with the Fed's last-resort lending facility would have staved off failure for either of the banks, officials have said the episode should serve as a wake-up call for all banks.

Like it or not, big changes are coming for the Federal Home Loan banks | American Banker -No one is accusing the Federal Housing Finance Agency of moving too hastily in coming forward with its centennial report, "FHLBank System at 100." Over a year in its composition, the report signals a new and more positive direction for the Federal Home Loan banks.The 117-page document can be conveniently broken down into what it says, what it doesn't say and what it only hints at (albeit with a megaphone that can be heard from Boston to San Francisco).It says the 11 Home Loan banks have a dual mission, liquidity for their members and housing and community development for their neighborhoods. It doesn't say how much the taxpayers are paying to subsidize this $1.5 trillion bureaucracy. It hints loudly that the herd of eleven lumbering Home Loan banks will soon be culled to eight or fewer, and that out-of-control executive compensation will be reduced on an order of 80%.Within the castle walls of the Home Loan banks, news that their mission had been redefined to include "housing and community development" must have come as a shock. In a recent Bank Shot podcast hosted by American Banker's Claire Williams, I made the point: "Now, if you ask someone from the Home Loan banks what the purpose of the system is, they will probably tell you that the system is intended to provide liquidity to member banks, full stop."Williams interrupted me to say that she had, in fact, asked Ryan Donovan, president and CEO of the Council of Federal Home Loan Banks, that very question, and played back his answer."Let's keep in mind, the whole purpose of the Home Loan Bank System is to provide liquidity to our members in all market environments," Donovan said.What a bummer to have your regulator inform you that the mission you've been pursuing for many decades was all wrong. And hot on the heels of its report, the agency is expected to come forward with a proposed rulemaking to redefine the mission of the Home Loan banks.The banks will be faced with a dilemma.Do they go along with the new dual-mission statement hoping that a new administration a little over a year from now will oust FHFA Director Sandra Thompson and that her successor will reverse the rule, or, that a new Congress in 2024 will repeal her rule under the Congressional Review Act?Alternatively, the Home Loan banks can challenge the agency's redefinition of their mission using the Supreme Court's new and muscular "major question" doctrine. A victory in the courts would kick the issue to Congress, essentially leaving the banks mission-less as they are today. It would also undermine many reforms put forward by the agency.Of course, there is a third path that has been there all the time.The Home Loan banks can embrace the new mission in letter and in spirit. This would call, however, for a cultural and operational reformation within each of them. This path has always been open. However, they have chosen not to take it, preferring, instead, to hew to Mr. Donovan's guidance that the "whole purpose" of the Home Loan banks is to serve their members. Here's hoping for a better result this time.

FHFA finalizes updates to capital framework -The Federal Housing Finance Agency moved forward on some of its proposed tweaks to rules related to the financial soundness of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac with what it characterized as "minor modifications."Certain changes to guarantees on uniform mortgage-backed securities, apartment loan exposures on government-subsidized buildings and interest-only securities are part of the finalized Enterprise Regulatory Capital Framework the agency promised to deliver this year. But not all proposed updates to the framework advanced. Notably, it withdrew one related to use of credit scores and reporting at the enterprises the FHFA oversees."FHFA currently is not adopting the proposed modification to the procedure for selecting a representative credit score for a single-family mortgage exposure when multiple credit scores have been submitted for at least one borrower," the agency said.The omission was prompted by mixed feedback about a plan to give mortgage companies the option to use two rather than the three credit reports when submitting loans to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.In the proposal, the industry would have transitioned from using either the median of three scores from as many reports, or the lower of the number from two, to an average of either."FHFA proposed this modification to prevent a downward shift in representative credit scores under the current methodology once the enterprises require a minimum of two, rather than three, credit reports," the agency explained.While that aspect of the proposal had supporters who've studied it and determined it wouldn't result in a material change for borrowers, others have raised questions about whether it could have some negative unintended consequences."In consideration of the delayed implementation date for the bimerge requirement and the ongoing public engagement related to credit scores, FHFA has determined to not adopt the proposed change to the calculation of representative credit scores at this time," the agency said. "FHFA may, in the future, finalize this aspect of the proposed rule," it added.

Black Knight: Mortgage Delinquency Rate Decreased in October --From ICE / Black Knight: ICE First Look at Mortgage Performance: Foreclosure starts rose in October, despite serious delinquencies returning to 17-year lows

• The national delinquency rate fell 3 basis points (bps) to 3.26% in October, marking a 9 bps (-2.8%) improvement from the same time last year
• Serious delinquencies (90+ days past due) fell to 447K, once again hitting their lowest levels since 2006
• Loans 30-days late also declined, marking the first such improvement in five months
• Despite the improvement in delinquencies, foreclosure starts rose to 33K in October, hitting their highest levels in 18 months – while the number of foreclosure sales (completions) remained relatively flat
• Active foreclosure inventory inched up 3K to 217K, but remains more than 25% below prepandemic levels
• While foreclosure starts rose in October, near term risk remains muted, with serious delinquencies historically low and more than 70% of such loans protected from foreclosure by loss mitigation efforts
• Prepay activity (measured as single-month mortality) dwindled to just 0.43% under continued seasonal pressure, despite interest rates easing somewhat from the prior month

MBA Survey: "Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Decreases to 0.29% in October" -From the MBA: Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Decreases to 0.29% in October The Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) monthly Loan Monitoring Survey revealed that the total number of loans now in forbearance decreased by 2 basis points from 0.31% of servicers’ portfolio volume in the prior month to 0.29% as of October 31, 2023. According to MBA’s estimate, 145,000 homeowners are in forbearance plans. Mortgage servicers have provided forbearance to approximately 8 million borrowers since March 2020.In October 2023, the share of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac loans in forbearance remained flat at 0.18%. Ginnie Mae loans in forbearance decreased 5 basis points to 0.52%, and the forbearance share for portfolio loans and private-label securities (PLS) decreased 3 basis points to 0.32%.“For the first time since MBA began tracking the reasons for forbearance in October 2022, temporary hardships such as job loss, death, and divorce represent a larger share of loans in forbearance by reason than a COVID-19 hardship,” “This upward trend will continue, as Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac sunset the use of COVID-19 as a reason for delinquency starting in November 2023,[1] and FHA’s COVID-19 forbearance period ends at the end of November 2023[2].” “Forbearance is still an option for many distressed homeowners, but in most cases, the requirements to obtain a forbearance will not be as streamlined as they were during the pandemic.”This graph shows the reasons for forbearance: COVID-19, Naturnal Disaster, other Temporary Hardship.From the MBA: By reason, 45.4% of borrowers are in forbearance for reasons such as a temporary hardship caused by job loss, death, divorce, or disability; while 43.3% of borrowers are in forbearance because of COVID-19. Another 11.3% are in forbearance because of a natural disaster.At the end of October, there were about 145,000 homeowners in forbearance plans.

Ginnie Mae's handling of troubled issuers concerns HUD inspector -The Department of Housing and Urban Development's Inspector General issued a report voicing concern about a number of issues going into 2024, including how economic headwinds will impact Ginnie Mae.The report points to soaring inflation and a rapid increase in interest rates as factors negatively impacting nonbanks and heightening risk for the government guarantor.The HUD OIG report questions how Ginnie Mae can manage issuers that become troubled financially and the mechanisms it has in place to relocate a troubled portfolio to another issuer, rather than having to absorb the servicing portfolio itself. The watchdog dubbed this issue as "severe" and noted itpublished a previous report that found gaps in Ginnie's guidance and process for troubled issuers, which have yet to be fully addressed.One of the main underlying risks, per the report, is that Ginnie Mae has issuers who service reverse mortgage loans, which are more vulnerable to negative impacts from higher interest rates than forward- mortgages are, since they decrease funds available to the borrower through the HECM loan. In its report, HUD OIG points out that Ginnie had to seize the portfolio of Reverse Mortgage Fundingearlier in the year, which was "staff intensive even with a contract subservicer.""Periods of rising interest rates have challenged [Home Equity Conversion Mortgage securities] issuers," the report said. "This condition is especially concerning since the four largest issuers have approximately 86% of the remaining HMBS market. Assumption of another defaulted HMBS portfolio could significantly challenge Ginnie Mae's capacity."The government guarantor's capacity, in terms of staff, is slim, according to the HUD OIG's report, and there is a continuous overreliance on government contractors, despite Ginnie operating "a secondary market program similar in size to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac government-sponsored enterprises."Previously, Ginnie stated that it had completed an assessment of the optimal mix of contractors and in-house staff and would begin shifting staff from contractor to inhouse sometime this year.Ginnie responded to HUD OIG's concerns about its management of troubled issuers portfolios, writing that it "has robust issuer monitoring protocols in place but that the organization needs more flexibility to be agile enough to respond to significant, rapidly evolving market events that strain Ginnie Mae's resources," the watchdog's report said. "In the event of future significant extinguishment scenarios, Ginnie Mae opined that it would be best equipped if it had flexibility to surge resources and staff support to match the scale of the portfolios that Ginnie Mae may need to onboard and service, similar to the model used by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation," the OIG wrote.HUD OIG also flagged issues in counterparty risk related to protecting the Federal Housing Administration's Mutual Mortgage Insurance Fund. It pointed to the importance of having better oversight of servicers who provide loss mitigation options. Earlier this year, a separate report from HUD OIG found servicers, such as Mr. Cooper, struggled to provide proper retention options to borrowers with delinquent FHA-insured loans after their COVID-19 forbearance came to an end. The report also said FHA has a lengthy foreclosure and conveyance process. The inspector general also mentioned the department's ongoing lag in maintaining its information technology systems.Though some progress has been made, such as reorganizing key IT and cybersecurity positions, "HUD must continue its efforts to strengthen its IT, cybersecurity, and data management systems and continue toward adapting and implementing a secure and modernized IT environment," the report added.HUD faces several longstanding challenges in modernizing its IT systems – such as having outdated mission-essential applications, "which presents multiple sources of risk potential weak points in safeguarding personal identifiable information and lacking an accurate and complete inventory of its hardware, which "limits HUD's ability to understand, prioritize and address its most critical IT risks."HUD did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

VA calls on servicers to suspend foreclosures through May - The Department of Veterans Affairs is asking housing finance companies to cease certain seizures of homes in order to address the lapse between the availability of a pandemic relief option and a successor program."We are calling on mortgage servicers to pause foreclosures of VA-guaranteed loans through May 31, 2024," the VA said in a press statement circulated over the weekend. "During this pause, we will work with servicers on workable home retention solutions for veterans."The suspension followed recent press reports about the discontinued partial claims program's impact on borrowers and a letter from a group of Senate Democrats calling for such a change until its replacement, the VA Servicing Purchase program [VASP], can be established.In addition to asking servicers to put a hold on foreclosures, the VA said it also will extend through the COVID-19 Refund Modification program, scheduled most recently to expire at the end of this year, to May 31.The latter program is aimed at allowing borrowers to receive an adjustment in their mortgage terms that would make their go-forward payments more manageable. It also permits them to get a separate loan to cover monthly obligations they haven't fulfilled without incurring interest. "During this pause, we will work with servicers on workable home retention solutions for veterans," the VA said in an emailed statement. While consumer advocates generally applauded the borrower assistance measures, industry stakeholders and experts at the time of this writing had questions about the potential impact of the changes on servicing advance obligations."What's scary is to put another kind of a moratorium on foreclosures, which means that lenders can't move forward to deal with the delinquent borrowers," said Ted Tozer, former president and CEO of government agency Ginnie Mae and nonresident fellow at the Urban Institute.Housing finance companies that are Ginnie servicers have to provide funds for investor payments from securitizations of government loans that the agency guarantees when borrowers aren't meeting their obligations."The issuers are going to have to keep advancing the principal and interest payments to the bondholders, that really can put — especially small to medium-sized — independent mortgage bankers extremely at risk of failure," said Tozer.Tozer has suggested that Ginnie could help these companies obtain financing by guaranteeing one-year commercial-paper funding facilities from the private market under the same authority it has to to back securitizations but would need congressional funding to do it.Ginnie Mae had not responded to an inquiry at deadline.

Watchdog launches inquiry into Ginnie Mae's handling of RMF -The Department of Housing and Urban Development's Office of Inspector General announced Thursday that it's gathering information about Ginnie Mae's handling of Reverse Mortgage Funding's bankruptcy and seizure of its servicing."The OIG's inquiry will include interviews, data gathering, and analysis of compliance with laws, regulations, policies and procedures related to Ginnie Mae's oversight of RMF," Inspector General Rae Oliver Davis said in a press release. Ginnie's history with RMF will be examined.Davis described counterparty risk as "a top management challenge for HUD" and Ginnie Mae's more than $2.4 trillion mortgage-backed securities portfolio "a priority." MBS in the Home Equity Conversion Mortgage market are a relatively small but important subset of that portfolio."Because extinguishing issuers and seizing their portfolios places significant stress on Ginnie Mae's operations, my office has initiated an inquiry into the facts and circumstances that led to Ginnie Mae's extinguishment of RMF from the HMBS program," the inspector general said.The watchdog agency declined to further explain the nature of the inquiry. Ginnie Mae had not responded to a request for comment at deadline.HECMs, which provide borrowers 62 and up with the ability to tap home equity while still living in their houses so long as they can maintain them, dominate the reverse market.Both Ginnie and the Federal Housing Administration, which insures HECMs, are arms of the Department of Housing and Urban Development. Ginnie takes responsibility for ensuring securitized loan payments get to borrowers. FHA insures some of the loans that collateralize Ginnie's bonds.The seizure of servicing from Reverse Mortgage Funding's bankruptcy has had ripple effects includinga warehouse lender's legal challenge to Ginnie Mae for allegedly canceling liens on millions of dollars worth of collateral after Texas Capital Bancshares lent RMF cash "on an emergency basis… to support thousands of senior citizen mortgagors," according to a Bloomberg report.Ginnie has been working to improve its HECM rules and the Federal Housing Administration announced Wednesday that it is looking for feedback on a series of proposed policy changes aimed at making it easier and more financially attractive to service reverse mortgages.Experts say the FHA proposal is likely to be well received by the industry, which may account for why its feedback period is relatively short.

Mark Calabria, former FHFA head, on creating a healthy housing market | American Banker - Mark Calabria, former head of the Federal Housing Finance Agency and author of the new book "Shelter from the Storm" sits down to chat about his tumultuous time in power, what navigating COVID relief for homeowners taught him and what he thinks mortgage lenders can expect in the coming months and an election year amid high rates, sluggish originations and economic uncertainty. The transcript of the interview follows:

Is portability the cure to the mortgage market's woes? -With mortgage lending ground to a halt in the face of rising interest rates, many in and around the banking and real estate industries are looking for ways to unlock the market. Some say the answer lies to the north — in Canada. These market participants say many of the sector's woes could be resolved if U.S. lenders and regulators emulated their peers in Canada and some other advanced economies by allowing homeowners to carry mortgages with them from one property to another. Mortgage portability is a feature available to borrowers in Canada as well as Australia, the United Kingdom and other countries. It allows them to retain the deal, the interest rate or — in some cases — the entire loan after selling one home and buying another. If brought to the U.S. today, Andy Heart, CEO of North Carolina-based Delegate Advisors and a former banker, said this option would remove the "golden handcuffs" from homeowners who — despite continued property value appreciation — are unwilling or unable to foot the bill for new mortgages should they move. "That low-cost mortgage becomes low-cost housing for the remaining term of that mortgage," Heart said. "It's like all of a sudden you've turned your biggest liability into your biggest asset." Yet, while the adoption of portability would benefit existing homeowners and potentially boost the broader for-sale housing industry, some policy experts say the shift would create more problems than it would solve. Mark Calabria, the former head of the Federal Housing Finance Agency, said incentivizing borrowers to hold their loans longer would amplify risks for any entity with mortgages or mortgage-backed securities on their balance sheets. "It's a fair amount of interest rate risk you're taking on," Calabria said. "Pre-record low rates, pre-pandemic, the typical 30-year mortgage only really was around for about seven years before people refinanced or prepaid. Portable means, from the lender's perspective, that 30-year [mortgage] may actually turn into 30 years." Proponents of portability argue that duration risk is baked into the origination or purchase of a 30-year mortgage. Anyone engaged in the space, they say, when interest rates were at record lows during and following the COVID-19 pandemic should have hedged against the risk of slower repayment times. "Whether it's a five-year mortgage or whether it's a 30-year mortgage, you're still doing the same job from an interest rate risk management perspective. Duration of the instrument doesn't matter to me, you should be understanding that the price volatility and sensitivity of your earnings to a change in interest rates is higher when the duration is longer," Heart said. "I don't have a lot of sympathy for people who didn't do the job on the asset-liability matching front."

MBA: Mortgage Applications Increased in Weekly Survey -From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly Survey Mortgage applications increased 3.0 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending November 17, 2023. The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 3.0 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 0.1 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index increased 2 percent from the previous week and was 4 percent lower than the same week one year ago. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 4 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 1 percent compared with the previous week and was 20 percent lower than the same week one year ago. “U.S. bond yields continued to move lower as incoming data signaled a softer economy and more signs of cooling inflation. Most mortgage rates in our survey decreased, with the 30-year fixed mortgage rate decreasing to 7.41 percent, the lowest rate in two months,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Vice President and Deputy Chief Economist. “Mortgage applications increased to their highest level in six weeks, but remain at very low levels. Purchase applications were up almost four percent over the week, on a seasonally adjusted basis, as both conventional and government purchase loans saw increases. The average loan size on a purchase application was $403,600, the lowest since January 2023. This is consistent with other sources of home sales data showing a gradually increasing first-time homebuyer share.” Added Kan, “Refinance applications increased 1.6 percent last week, but the level of refinances continues to be well below historical averages, given that most borrowers already have a rate well below current market rates.” ... The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($726,200 or less) decreased to 7.41 percent from 7.61 percent, with points decreasing to 0.62 from 0.67 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans.
The first graph shows the MBA mortgage purchase index. According to the MBA, purchase activity is down 20% year-over-year unadjusted. Red is a four-week average (blue is weekly). Other than the previous five weeks, the purchase index was at the lowest level since 1995. The second graph shows the refinance index since 1990.With higher mortgage rates, the refinance index declined sharply in 2022 - and has mostly flat lined at a low level since then

Surging “Mortgage Demand” and “Declining Spending,” Really? Let’s Have a Look at Reality by Wolf Richter - For example, on CNBC this morning, we read: “Mortgage demand climbs to the highest level in five weeks after interest rates move lower. Or on MarketWatch, we read: “U.S. mortgage demand hits five-week high as buyers seize a dip in rates.” This was based on the weekly applications for mortgages to purchase a home, released this morning by the Mortgage Bankers Association. Mortgage applications ticked up a tiny little bit, but that uptick can barely be seen in this three-year plunge of mortgage applications to the lowest levels in the data going back to 1995. And that uptick itself was tiny compared to prior increases in this very volatile data, and mortgage applications to purchase a home were still down by 47% from the same period in 2019, and by 61% from January 2021: “Declining spending adds to signs the economy is cooling after hot summer,” the WSJ said hilariously as subtitle under the article, “U.S. Retail Sales Fall for First Time Since March as Holiday Season Approaches.” Total retail sales, after having jumped by an upwardly revised huge 0.9% (11.3% annualized) in September, and by 0.7% (8.7% annualized) in August, edged down 0.1% in October from September, in what is highly volatile data that gets heavily revised as more data is collected. Retail sales dipped to $704.95 billion in October, from the record in September of $705.7 billion, seasonally adjusted. Retail sales in October were higher than the unrevised September retail sales. That’s how it goes. The volatility in the data and the revisions are why we use a three-month moving average, which shows the trend. The three-month moving average shows the actual slowdowns we briefly had last year: In addition, prices of goods dropped, showing that consumers bought more product. Retail sales are sales of goods by retailers. And prices of many goods have been dropping as inflation has wandered off into services. Prices of durable goods (autos, electronics, furniture, appliances, tools, etc.) dropped 0.4% in October from September – I discussed this at length yesterday in Beneath the Skin of CPI Inflation: Prices of non-durable goods (gasoline, food, supplies, clothing, shoes, etc.) dropped by 0.7% in October from September, driven by a plunge in gasoline prices. Because prices of goods dropped faster than retail sales of goods, consumers bought more product in October than in September. This is why the dip of 0.1% in retail sales was smaller than expected; the consensus had pointed at a drop of 0.3% based on the price declines in goods we’ve been seeing which should have lowered the dollar sales. Inflation has long ago moved to services.p>

NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 3.79 million SAAR in October --From the NAR: Existing-Home Sales Receded 4.1% in October Existing-home sales dropped in October, according to the National Association of REALTORS®. Among the four major U.S. regions, sales slid in the Northeast, South and West but were unchanged in the Midwest. All four regions experienced year-over-year sales declines. Total existing-home sales – completed transactions that include single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops – fell 4.1% from September to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.79 million in October. Year-over-year, sales tumbled 14.6% (down from 4.44 million in October 2022).... Total housing inventory registered at the end of October was 1.15 million units, up 1.8% from September but down 5.7% from one year ago (1.22 million). Unsold inventory sits at a 3.6-month supply at the current sales pace, up from 3.4 months in September and 3.3 months in October 2022. This graph shows existing home sales, on a Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) basis since 1994.Sales in October (3.79 million SAAR) were down 4.1% from the previous month and were 14.6% below the October 2022 sales rate. The second graph shows nationwide inventory for existing homes.According to the NAR, inventory increased to 1.15 million in October from 1.13 million the previous month. Headline inventory is not seasonally adjusted, and inventory usually decreases to the seasonal lows in December and January, and peaks in mid-to-late summer.The last graph shows the year-over-year (YoY) change in reported existing home inventory and months-of-supply. Since inventory is not seasonally adjusted, it really helps to look at the YoY change. Note: Months-of-supply is based on the seasonally adjusted sales and not seasonally adjusted inventory. Inventory was down 5.7% year-over-year (blue) in October compared to October 2022.Months of supply (red) increased to 3.6 months in October from 3.4 months the previous month.This was below the consensus forecast.

NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 3.79 million SAAR in October; New Cycle Low -- From the NAR: Existing-Home Sales Receded 4.1% in October Existing-home sales dropped in October, according to the National Association of REALTORS®. Among the four major U.S. regions, sales slid in the Northeast, South and West but were unchanged in the Midwest. All four regions experienced year-over-year sales declines.Total existing-home sales – completed transactions that include single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops – fell 4.1% from September to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.79 million in October. Year-over-year, sales tumbled 14.6% (down from 4.44 million in October 2022).... Total housing inventory registered at the end of October was 1.15 million units, up 1.8% from September but down 5.7% from one year ago (1.22 million). Unsold inventory sits at a 3.6-month supply at the current sales pace, up from 3.4 months in September and 3.3 months in October 2022. The sales rate was below the consensus forecast. Sales in October (3.79 million SAAR) were down 4.1% from the previous month and were 14.6% below the October 2022 sales rate.The second graph shows nationwide inventory for existing homes.According to the NAR, inventory increased to 1.15 million in October from 1.13 million the previous month.Usually inventory decreases in October, but occasionally inventory increases. This increase will likely remind some analysts of the increase in October 2005 and October 2006; however, the market dynamics were very different, and inventory is currently still very low. Headline inventory is not seasonally adjusted, and inventory usually decreases to the seasonal lows in December and January, and peaks in mid-to-late summer. The third graph shows the year-over-year (YoY) change in reported existing home inventory and months-of-supply. Since inventory is not seasonally adjusted, it really helps to look at the YoY change. Note: Months-of-supply is based on the seasonally adjusted sales and not seasonally adjusted inventory.Inventory was down 5.7% year-over-year (blue) in October compared to October 2022. Months of supply (red) increased to 3.6 months in October from 3.4 months the previous month The fourth graph shows existing home sales by month for 2022 and 2023. Sales declined 14.6% year-over-year compared to October 2022. This was the twenty-sixth consecutive month with sales down year-over-year. This was a new cycle low, below the 3.95 million SAAR in September 2023.

Existing Home Sales Crash To Slowest Since 2010, Hit Record Low In The West -- With housing affordability at its lowest since at least the early 1980s, (and homebuilder sentiment slumping as mortgage rates rose), it's no surprise that analysts expected existing home sales in October to tumble 1.5% MoM. Sales actually fell 4.1% MoM (far worse than expected and down for the 20th time in the last 23 months) with September's 2.0% MoM decline revised even lower to -2.2% MoM. That decline left existing home sales down 14.6% YoY.The total existing home sales SAAR plunged to 3.79mm - the lowest since the tax credit expired in Aug 2010... Sales fell in three of four regions, while they were unchanged in the Midwest. They hit a record low in the West and matched an all-time low in the Northeast Finally, the percentage of homes that are vacant fell to the lowest level on record in August, and ticked up only slightly in September..... Ever the optimistic,Lawrence Yun, NAR’s chief economist, suggested that:“Fortunately, mortgage rates have fallen for the third straight week, stirring up buying interest,” adding “though limited now, expect housing inventory to improve after this winter and heading into the spring.” Good luck with that idea Larry!

Home Sales Collapse, Prices Drop Further, Supply Jumps. People Are Finally on Buyers’ Strike by Wolf Richter • The national median price of existing homes of all types – single-family houses, condos, and co-ops – whose sales closed in October dropped to $391,800, down by 5.1% from the peak in June 2022, according to data from the National Association of Realtors (NAR) today. First “lower high” since Housing Bust. The median price in June 2023, the seasonal peak, was below the all-time peak of June 2022. This was the first such event of “lower highs” (purple line in the chart) since the Housing Bust, and prices have dropped further since then (historic data via YCharts): Generally, there is an uptick or flat-spot in October from September that might also reach November. This year, the price fell in October from September. But last year, prices just kept plunging, which was very unusual, following the pandemic pattern of normal seasonality going out the window. Due to the steep plunge in prices last year in July through December, the median price was up year-over-year by 3.4%. Sales of previously owned houses, condos, and co-ops, at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.79 million homes in October, have collapsed to levels not seen since the worst three months of the housing bust: The post-Lehman-bankruptcy November in 2008 (matched it) and July and August 2010. Sales compared to prior Octobers (historic data via YCharts):

• From 2022: -14.6% from already crashed sales
• From 2021: -38.8%.
• From 2019: -26.8%.
• From 2018: -29.9%.

Actual sales – not the seasonally adjusted annual rate – fell 10.2% from the already depressed levels in October 2022 to 333,000 homes. Seasonally, January and February mark the low points of the year in terms of sales. Sales that closed in those two months reflect the lull in activity over the holidays. June marks the peak volume in closed sales, reflecting the end of “spring selling season.” During the second half of the year, sales head down, as we can see in the actual sales data, not seasonally adjusted and not annual rates (data via NAR):

Lawler on Existing Home Sales, Population Projections and Household Slowdown -Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: Lawler on Existing Home Sales, Population Projections and Household Slowdown Excerpt: Census’ new long-term US population projections released last Friday were massively lower than the previous long-term projection released in 2017. In a report earlier this week I highlighted the how the projected components of population change (births, deaths, and net international migration) differed in the two forecasts. Today I’m going to highlight a few “issues” with the latest projections over the next few years. First, the “projected” components of change from July 1, 2022, to June 30, 2023, differ significantly from likely components of change based on existing information. For deaths, the latest projection shows deaths from July 1, 2022, to June 30, 2023, of 2,861,510, a whopping 298,232 lower than CDC provisional data for that period show (this latter number will be revised upward slightly). In looking at deaths by age, mortality rates are “too low” in the latest long-term projection for almost all age groups, but especially for young to middle-aged adults. For net international migration (NIM), the latest projection shows NIM from July 1, 2022, to June 30, 2023, of 853,220, or a sizeable 157,703 below the estimated NIM from July 1, 2021, to June 30, 2022, in the Vintage 2022 population estimates. Yet the admittedly limited data available on immigration trends suggest the NIM INCREASED from 2022 to 2023, and my best estimate in that NIM from July 1, 2022, to June 30, 2022, was about 1,200,000 – 346,780 higher than the assumption in the latest long-term population projection. Finally, births in the latest long-term population projection from July 1, 2022, to June 30, 2023, are 18,788 below provisional CDC data for this period.

Housing November 20th Weekly Update: Inventory Up Slightly Year-over-year - Altos reports that active single-family inventory was up 0.5% week-over-week and is now up slightly year-over-year. This is the latest in the year that inventory was still increasing in this series! Inventory will start decreasing seasonally soon (for Thanksgiving and Christmas). This inventory graph is courtesy of Altos Research. As of November 17th, inventory was at 570 thousand (7-day average), compared to 567 thousand the prior week. Year-to-date, inventory is up 16.1%. And inventory is up 40.3% from the seasonal bottom 31 weeks ago.The second graph shows the seasonal pattern for active single-family inventory since 2015. The red line is for 2023. The black line is for 2019. Note that inventory is up from the record low for the same week in 2021, but below last year and still well below normal levels.Inventory was up 0.1% compared to the same week in 2022 (last week it was down 0.9%), and down 35.7% compared to the same week in 2019 (last week down 36.5%). In 2022, inventory peaked at the end of October (the latest in the year inventory had peaked in this series until this year). Inventory is now solidly above the same week in 2020 levels (dark blue line).Mike Simonsen discusses this data regularly on Youtube.

Hotels: Occupancy Rate Increased 0.8% Year-over-year -From STR: U.S. hotel results for week ending 11 November '- U.S. hotel performance increased from the previous week and showed positive year-over-year comparisons, according to CoStar’s latest data through 11 November. 5-11 November 2023 (percentage change from comparable week in 2022):
• Occupancy: 64.8% (+0.8%)
• Average daily rate (ADR): US$156.01 (+4.0%)
• Revenue per available room (RevPAR): US$101.13 (+4.9%)
The following graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four-week average. The red line is for 2023, black is 2020, blue is the median, and dashed light blue is for 2022. Dashed purple is for 2018, the record year for hotel occupancy. The 4-week average of the occupancy rate is tracking close to last year, and above the median rate for the period 2000 through 2022 (Blue).

LA Port Inbound Traffic Increases in October - Container traffic gives us an idea about the volume of goods being exported and imported - and usually some hints about the trade report since LA area ports handle about 40% of the nation's container port traffic.The following graphs are for inbound and outbound traffic at the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach in TEUs (TEUs: 20-foot equivalent units or 20-foot-long cargo container). To remove the strong seasonal component for inbound traffic, the first graph shows the rolling 12-month average.On a rolling 12-month basis, inbound traffic increased 1.3% in October compared to the rolling 12 months ending in September. Outbound traffic increased 0.1% compared to the rolling 12 months ending the previous month.The 2nd graph is the monthly data (with a strong seasonal pattern for imports). Usually imports peak in the July to October period as retailers import goods for the Christmas holiday, and then decline sharply and bottom in February or March depending on the timing of the Chinese New Year. Imports were up 17% YoY in October, and exports were up 1% YoY. It appears traffic is returning to the pre-pandemic patterns.

November Vehicle Sales Forecast: 15.8 million SAAR, Up 11% YoY - From WardsAuto: November U.S. Light-Vehicle Sales to Improve on Past Three Months (pay content). Brief excerpt: The recent falloff in the SAAR from summer highs could mean more consumers are reaching price fatigue. It also could be that some of the stronger selling segments – especially fullsize trucks – of the past two-plus years are closer than other segments to meeting the pent-up demand built up since the inventory drain caused by the semiconductor shortage began in early 2021. Of course, there also has been a rise in distractions over that period, locally and internationally. This graph shows actual sales from the BEA (Blue), and Wards forecast for November (Red). On a seasonally adjusted annual rate basis, the Wards forecast of 15.8 million SAAR, would be up 2% from last month, and up 11% from a year ago. Vehicle sales are usually a transmission mechanism for Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) policy, although far behind housing. This time vehicle sales were more suppressed by supply chain issues.

'Funflation' drives sporting event ticket prices up a whopping 25% --- Sports prices have surged this fall, according to federal data. That’s made game tickets the latest victim of “funflation,” a term used by economists to explain the increasing price tags of live events as consumers hanker for the experiences they lost during the pandemic. Admission prices for sporting events jumped 25.1% in October 2023 from the same month a year prior, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ consumer price index data. The category saw the highest annualized inflation rate out of the few hundred that make up the inflation gauge. CPI as a whole rose a relatively modest 3.2% on an annualized basis. The index tracks the prices of a broad basket of items including milk, jewelry and airline fares. “We’ve seen this through the entire leisure and hospitality sector,” said Victor Matheson, a professor and sports economist at the College of the Holy Cross. “People are getting back to things that they enjoy doing and are willing to pay a bunch.” Part of the reason consumers may be seeing higher prices for their favorite sports teams is because of the increasing use of dynamic pricing models, Matheson said. These structures allow ticket-selling platforms to fetch more or less per ticket, depending on demand for the event at any given moment. There’s also an alignment of attention-grabbing sporting events taking place this fall. Beyond the typical major-league seasons, the Formula One race in Las Vegas last week and the announcement of soccer legend Lionel Messi’s move to the Inter Miami team this summer have boosted enthusiast spending. But a large reason for the eye-popping 25.1% jump is because of how low prices were a year ago, Matheson said. Teams slashed ticket values in 2022 in a bid to win back fans who had grown accustomed to watching at home. Sports ticket prices were 14.2% higher in October than in November 2019, a smaller gain than the entire index’s 19.6% increase, a CNBC analysis of CPI data shows. Much of the upward pressure on admission costs has come this year, underscoring the role of funflation as consumers shift their attention from Taylor Swift and Beyoncé concerts to NFL and Major League Baseball games. NFL and National Hockey League sale volumes have approximately doubled in 2023 compared with the prior year, according to ticket platform StubHub. National Basketball Association sales rose nearly 60% at the start of the season compared with the last, while college football has seen an increase of around 50%. To be sure, not every sport this year has seen the same price growth. StubHub said ticket prices across the top 10 sporting events were 15% higher in 2022 than they were in 2023. Matheson said tamer inflation overall should help cool sector-specific growth. A return to a more normalized entertainment spending routine following the post-pandemic experience boom can also help quell demand and prices, he added. Interest in attending games should be somewhat stable even if the economy worsens, said Rodney Paul, director of the sports analytics program at Syracuse University. That’s because a sizable portion of the consumer base is well-off enough to afford pro-sports tickets — which he likened to a luxury item — and should be able to better weather a downturn given their financial status. But Paul said a meaningful change to the state of the economy could push fans who are less financially stable to cut back on extraneous expenses, in turn hurting demand. Cash-strapped consumers may justify spending more than they’d like this year by reminding themselves they didn’t splurge as much or at all on sports tickets during the pandemic, Matheson said. Part of the financial stress comes from the resale market for tickets, some sports enthusiasts say. The rising prices of parking and food inside the stadium also have to be factored into the calculation of fans such as Hornberger and Sara Weddington. Weddington was able to save enough enough to attend a Kansas City Chiefs game last season, but she said it feels out of the question this year as prices have climbed. The long-time resident of the Kansas City area said she feels for people who have never gotten to see a live match before recent cost increases. “To have such a monumental part of the community be so out of reach for a lot of people is really upsetting,” the 23-year-old said. “Not being able to go to a game is like going to a candy store and not being able to get any candy.” Still, Paul of Syracuse University said sports have taken on a new meaning in the post-pandemic world. As people increasingly work from home, he said there’s a larger need for in-person social spaces — and those who can afford it are more willing to shell out. “There’s a real craving for that kind of feeling of togetherness that the sports world brings,” he said. It’s “a really exciting experience that maybe is even more exciting now because people had lost it in the past.”

Native American Group Sues NFL Team Owner Over Redskins Name Change -- A lawsuit advocating for restoring the name Redskins to the National Football League (NFL)’s Washington team alleges that a rival Native American organization improperly prompted the change to the team now called the Commanders.The Native American Guardian Association (NAGA) filed its complaint in the U.S. District Court of North Dakota against the National Congress of American Indians (NCAI) and Josh Harris, who acquired the team in July for $6.05 billion. “NAGA’s members were huge Redskin fans precisely because they were the Redskins,” the complaint states. “It was the only team in the NFL to honor an actual Native American.” After accusations that Redskins is indicative of systemic racism, the team dropped the name in 2020 and renamed itself the Washington Football Team—then changed it again to the Washington Commanders in early 2022. All this despite the logo of Chief John Two Guns White Calf’s image was gifted to the team by the Blackfeet tribe in the early 1970s to help educate Americans about Native America. “I really appreciate the history and tradition that came with the name,” author M. Andre Billeaudeaux told The Epoch Times. “I was disappointed to see that they folded without much of a fight.” Mr. Billeaudeaux—who wrote "How the Redskins Got Their Name"—is also on NAGA’s leadership committee. NAGA alleges in the lawsuit that Mr. Harris, through his team executives, solicited NCAI to selectively discriminate against Native Americans who continue to support the Redskins name. A Washington Post poll in 2016 found that nine in 10 Native Americans weren’t offended by the Redskins name. “For Native Americans, their culture, history, and identity are at stake, but this lawsuit also impacts every American because it challenges the elites trying to alter American history,” New York attorney Chad LaVeglia told The Epoch Times. Mr. LaVeglia represents the plaintiffs in "Native American Guardians Association v. Washington Commanders et al" alleging defamation, civil conspiracy, and conspiracy to violate civil rights. William Dieckman, a member of the Kiowa tribe of Oklahoma, was devastated by the name change because he felt represented by the name Redskins. “That's been my team my whole life as a little boy in Oklahoma,” Mr. Dieckman told The Epoch Times. “The narrative in America at this point in time stands to say anything Native American is offensive and racist and needs to be erased or it has to disappear immediately.”

Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Decrease to 209,000 -The DOL reported: In the week ending November 18, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 209,000, a decrease of 24,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 2,000 from 231,000 to 233,000. The 4-week moving average was 220,000, a decrease of 750 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised up by 500 from 220,250 to 220,750. The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971. The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims decreased to 220,000. The previous week was revised up. Weekly claims were much lower than the consensus forecast.

Ford to scale back plans for $3.5 billion Michigan battery plant as EV demand disappoints, labor costs rise - Ford Motor is scaling back plans for a $3.5 billion battery plant in Michigan as consumers shift to electric vehicles more slowly than expected, labor costs rise and the company moves to cut costs.Ford executives including CEO Jim Farley and Chair Bill Ford initially announced the facility in February. It quickly became a political target due to its connection to Chinese battery manufacturer Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., or CATL. The plant is a wholly owned Ford subsidiary, but the U.S. automaker is licensing technology from CATL to produce new lithium iron phosphate, or LFP, batteries for EVs.Ford said Tuesday it is cutting production capacity by roughly 43% to 20 gigawatt hours per year and reducing expected employment from 2,500 jobs to 1,700 jobs. The company declined to disclose how much less it would invest in the plant. Based on the reduced capacity, it would still be about a $2 billion investment.The decision adds to a recent retreat from EVs by automakers globally. Demand for the vehicles is lower than expected due to higher costs and challenges with supply chains and battery technologies, among other issues. Reductions at the Marshall, Michigan, plant are part of Ford’s plans announced last month to cut or delay about $12 billion in previously announced EV investments. The company will also postpone construction of another electric vehicle battery plant in Kentucky.

Amazon workers strike in multiple countries on Black Friday - Amazon workers in multiple countries went on strike for Black Friday, the busiest shopping day of the year, to protest the e-commerce giant’s labor practices. The strike is organized by the UNI Global Union, which represents workers around the world and said it has mobilized workers from more than 30 countries, including Italy, Germany and the U.S., to speak out against Amazon’s treatment of employees. Hundreds of workers were striking Friday at warehouses in Coventry, U.K., and in multiple German cities, Reuters reported. Additional walkouts were expected later in the day in other countries. Officials with the GMB Union, a large trade union in the U.K. that organized protesters there, wrote on X, formerly Twitter, that the strike on Friday was the “the biggest industrial action in Amazon’s history.” The effort is part of the “Make Amazon Pay” campaign, which has organized strikes for the past four years. Christy Hoffman, general secretary of UNI Global Union, said workers around the world are “standing up to Make Amazon Pay.” “This day of action grows every year because the movement to hold Amazon accountable keeps getting bigger and stronger,” Hoffman said in a statement. “Workers know that it doesn’t matter what country you’re in or what your job title is, we are all united in the fight for higher wages, an end to unreasonable quotas, and a voice on the job.” Strikers argue that Amazon pays warehouse workers lower wages compared to employees in other sectors of the company and for better health and safety policies. Some also raise concerns about the e-commerce corporation’s environmental footprint.

What to know about the ‘Make Amazon Pay’ strike campaign -Thousands of Amazon workers and supporters worldwide staged protests Friday and planned more for Cyber Monday to demand the world’s largest retailer improve worker conditions, lessen its carbon footprint and pay more in taxes.The Make Amazon Pay campaign isn’t anticipated to get in the way of Black Friday shopping, but seeks to send a message to Amazon founder Jeff Bezos and company leadership.More than 80 labor and climate organizations are supporting protest and strike efforts at Amazon facilities worldwide, according to the groups involved.Organizers said strikes and protests would take place in more than 30 countries Friday.An organizer with GMB Union, a U.K.-based labor union, described the effort as “the largest day of industrial disruption in Amazon’s thirty-year history.”The effort garnered support from more than 400 lawmakers from 38 countries for a protest in 2020, including Rep. Rashida Tlaib (D-Mich.) and former U.K. Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn.While much of Europe will see protests Friday, workers at an Amazon facility in Joliet, Ill., pledged to also walk out in solidarity with the effort. There was also a planned strike of Teamsters members in Palmdale, Calif., organizers said.Supporters also planned protests at Amazon facilities in Massachusetts, Georgia and Illinois. Outside the U.S., organizers planned protest action in Japan, India and throughout Europe, including Germany, France, Spain and the U.K.Hundreds of workers were striking Friday at warehouses in Coventry, U.K., and in multiple German cities, Reuters reported.

Opposition to crackdown on pro-Palestinian student organizations mounts at Columbia University -- A wave of backlash has swept the campus of Columbia University (CU) following the November 10, decision by the administration to disaffiliate two of its leading pro-Palestinian campus clubs, Students for Justice for Palestine (SJP) and Jewish Voices for Peace (JVP). On Tuesday evening and Wednesday afternoon last week, hundreds of CU students and faculty demonstrators rallied on CU's Morningside, Manhattan campus to protest the ongoing suppression of political opposition to the Israeli state within the institution. At the Wednesday event, over 1,000 students, academics and youth also demonstrated outside of the campus on nearby sidewalks to show support for the campus protest. The opposition by students and faculty to the suppression of free speech on university campuses is beginning to take on an ever more political character. Students, in particular, are expressing growing hostility toward the Democratic Party and US imperialism. A WSWS reporting team interviewed participants at Wednesday's protest outside the CU Morningside campus. Andrew, an international student who studies architecture at CU, said the following: “I’m here to protest and fight against the brutal Israeli occupation. Also I want to show Columbia University that we can’t be silenced by shutting down our clubs. Columbia University is one of the most important place to protest, as it is the beacon of the Democratic Party.” Referring to the “March for Israel” event on Tuesday which was staged by pro-Israeli elements of the American state, Andrew said, “[i]t’s crazy that this pro-Israel protest on [Tuesday] in Washington D.C. was led by a guy who was himself an antisemite!” He was referring to John Hagee, one of the featured speakers, a Christian fundamentalist pastor. I’m also aware of the fact that the Canadian Parliament gave a standing ovation to a former S.S. member. Canada is one of the few countries that has been vetoing all diplomatic proceedings that in any way support Palestine. It’s shocking to me that Bernie didn’t support a ceasefire. Sanders used to be the one person who used to give me hope. But now, he, and the rest of the opposition within the establishment, they all say nice things, and of course, I agree with the nice things that they say. But they are all part of the system. They are part of Washington D.C. They are one minor voice that is part of the machine. This international protest movement, on the other hand, has much more powerful potential to change things.

Alumni Withhold Donations Over University Responses to Pro-Palestine Protests -- Alumni of at least three elite U.S. universities are adding their voices to the growing resistance to the United States' unquestioning support for Israel's bombardment of Gaza—announcing Friday that they would withhold donations to their alma maters unless the schools reverse their suspension of pro-Palestinian rights groups on campus.More than 2,000 graduates of Columbia University and Barnard College signed a scathing letter accusing the schools institutionalizing "anti-Palestinian racism" by suspending the campus chapters of Students for Justice in Palestine (SJP) and Jewish Voice for Peace.Gerald Rosberg, chair of the Columbia University Special Committee on Campus Safety, cited no examples when he announced last week the two groups would be suspended through the end of the fall term for using "threatening rhetoric and intimidation" at an "unauthorized event."Rosberg confirmed Friday that the decision to suspend the groups was made by senior administrators including university President Minouche Shafik, "without input from the University Senate."At college campuses and public spaces across the U.S., both groups are among those that have demanded the U.S. end its support for the Israel Defense Forces (IDF), which has killed more than 11,000 people—including at least 4,712 children—in less than six weeks in its bombardment of Gaza as it claims to be targeting Hamas.Columbia's decision last week followed pressure from many wealthy pro-Israel donors at universities including Harvard, Stanford, and Cornell to take a firm stance against pro-Palestinian voices on campus—whose calls for a cease-fire in Gaza echo the vast majority of American voters.A Reuters poll released this week found that 68% of Americans support a cease-fire."The university's decision to suspend these student groups is not simply a matter of censorship or the repression of freedom of speech," said the Columbia alumni. "Columbia is punishing students for protesting against ethnic cleansing and genocide."The graduates said they will withhold financial support for the school "until the following demands are met":

• Reverse the suspension of Columbia/Barnard Students for Justice in Palestine and Jewish Voice for Peace;
• Divest from companies that profit from Israeli apartheid and are therefore complicit in genocide;
• Discontinue the dual-degree partnership with Tel Aviv University and the Tel Aviv Global Center program; and
• Protect Palestinian students and their allies from anti-Palestinian, anti-Muslim, and anti-Jewish harassment and hostility.

On Monday, alumni who support Palestinian rights plan to hold a "denouncement ceremony" on campus."We will pledge not to donate a penny to these institutions as long as they bring us shame with their actions," said Columbia University for Palestine on Instagram.The school's decision also drew the outrage of about 200 faculty members, who staged a walkout Wednesday, supported by a large crowd of students. The teachers attempted to deliver a list of demands to Shafik, but were locked out of school buildings.

Dissenting faculty score a rare win against retaliation by the powers of DEI - From academia to corporations to the government, diversity, equity and inclusion (DEI) policies have expanded exponentially in the last 10 years. At colleges and universities, administrators now monitor compliance with DEI on every level, from teaching to hiring to promotions. And there is little subtlety or nuance in these programs. You object to DEI statements, priorities and training at your own peril. This week, federal magistrate Judge Christopher Baker issued a major 44-page report finding that Bakersfield College in California violated the First Amendment rights of Professor Daymon Johnson with its DEI mandates for faculty. The Johnson case is important because it challenges the claim of universities that DEI policies are simply guidelines and suggested practices. At the same time, universities have massively increased DEI offices and incorporated reviews in every aspect of academic life. The problem is that many DEI policies raise political, religious and academic values that some academics do not support. This can range from pronoun requirements to required perspectives taught in classrooms. Johnson is one such dissenter. The history professor found himself the subject of a five-month investigation by the college after he criticized a 2019 Facebook post of English Professor Andrew Bond in which Bond called the United States a “piece of s**t nation.” Bond had added, “Go ahead and quote me, conservatives. This country has yet to live up to the ideals of its founding documents.” Johnson did quote him, with the caption: “Do you agree with this radical [social justice warrior] from BC’s English Department? Thoughts?” A commentator on Facebook later added “Maybe he should move to China, and post this about the PRC in general or the Chinese Communist Party and see how much mileage it gets him. I wonder, do they still send the family the bill for the spent round?’” Bond responded in September 2021 by filing an administrative complaint against Johnson for harassment and bullying. Although Johnson was eventually cleared, the college issued a clear warning to him that it would “investigate any further complaints of harassment and bullying and, if applicable, [taking] appropriate remedial action including but not limited to any discipline determined to be appropriate.” Johnson said that he has experienced retaliation and harassment due to his opposition to DEI policies. Judge Baker’s review of Bakersfield’s policies found that they are clearly mandates, not suggestions. He found that the college used mandatory “shalls” to state the expectations of faculty, including “teaching, learning, and professional practices that reflect DEIA and anti-racist principles, and in particular, respect for, and acknowledgement of the diverse backgrounds of students and colleagues to improve equitable student outcomes and course completion.” Bakersfield also requires that faculty “promote and incorporate culturally affirming DEIA and anti-racist principles to nurture and create a respectful, inclusive, and equitable learning and work environment.” Judge Johnson found that the claim of the college that these are merely “aspirational goals” is “disingenuous.”

New Bankruptcy Process for Student Loans is Proving to be a Cruel, Dangerous Joke for Borrowers. by Bill Haskell - Our opposition seeds stories (CNBC) in the media pretty frequently like this. They try to make it seem like getting a discharge on student loans in bankruptcy is possible for most people. It is not. AB: Alan is voicing his displeasure with media claiming many people are getting student loan relief. They are not. In the end the battle for relief for another 40 million people needs to occur. “More student loan borrowers walk away from their debt in bankruptcy,” says cnbc.com, Annie Nova. Alan Collinge: The FACT? In the past year, “FEWER THAN 45” people have received discharges on their student loans in bankruptcy. This according to recent reports in the New York Times, Business Insider, etc. We don’t know how few, but my guess is 1-2 dozen, perhaps less. This is out of 150,000- 200,000 people with student loans who file every year. This is a “success” rate of 0.03%. At most. The Trick: The 99% discharge rate they claim is ONLY for cases where a judgement/order is ultimately made. The vast majority of these cases probably ended with the borrowers being told that they had to sign up for an IDR plan instead of getting a discharge. What’s more: Of the 650 people who paid several thousand dollars on top of their standard bankruptcy filing fees to attempt this process, the failure rate was greater than 90% ** Side Note: Notice how they talk about borrowers “walking away” from their student loans in the headline? That’s an editor’s trick to make us seem like bad people. DON’T FALL FOR IT! Shame on CNBC for publishing this obvious propaganda. Here is a far more accurate article if you want to know the truth about student loans, bankruptcy, and the new bankruptcy process. New Bankruptcy Process for Student Loans is Proving to be a Cruel, Dangerous Joke for Borrowers, Medium, Alan Collinge. “Undue Hardship remains, is only transferred from open court to the bowels of the Administrative State. As before, very few borrowers are seeing any relief.“ Click on the Medium link for the rest of Alan’s commentary.

Why it's easier for student loan holders to erase debt in bankruptcy -- For decades, it was nearly impossible for student loan borrowers to walk away from their debt in bankruptcy court. That's now changing.Last November, the Biden administration rolled out a new process for the discharge of education debt in bankruptcy. The U.S. Department of Justice worked with the U.S. Department of Education to implement the new guidelines aimed at making it easier for struggling borrowers to get a fresh start.In the first 10 months of the new process, student loan borrowers have filed more than 630 bankruptcy cases, a "significant increase" from recent years, the departments said in a Nov. 16 statement."The vast majority of borrowers seeking discharge have received full or partial discharges," they said.In the 1970s, lawmakers — responding to concerns by policy makers and pundits that students would rack up debt and then try to ditch it in court — added a stipulation that student loan borrowers needed to wait at least five years after they began repayment on their loans to file for bankruptcy. That waiting period was later upped to seven years in the Crime Control Act of 1990. Eventually, these waiting periods were done away with, but borrowers with federal or private student debt needed to prove their loans posed an "undue hardship" to discharge it. Borrowers also must make their case in a separate "adversary proceeding" outside of the standard bankruptcy process, which is timely and expensive."Many student borrowers recognize they won't be able to find success and, therefore, they won't even try," a lawyer and student debt advocate said in a statement for the American Bar Association in 2021.Under the new process, student loan borrowers complete a form to assist the government in evaluating their discharge request. The government compares a debtor's expenses to their income, using existing IRS Collection Financial Standards. If the borrower's expenses equal or exceed their income, the Justice Department likely concludes that the borrower lacks a present ability to pay.A borrower's future ability to pay and record of "good faith efforts," including trying to contact the U.S. Department of Education for assistance and working to maximize their income, are the two other major considerations. Here's a look at other stories offering a financial angle on important lifetime milestones. The government may decide a borrower's payment issues are likely to persist if they have a severe disability, are over the age of 65 or have been unemployed for at least five of the last 10 years, among other challenges. If the Justice Department doesn't believe a full discharge is necessary, it may recommend a partial one.

CFPB, 11 states reach $30M settlement with Prehired — The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau and 11 states reached a $30 million agreement on Monday with tech "boot camp" company Prehired for deceiving students with false guarantees of employment, marketing illegal loans and deploying abusive collection practices for borrowers who struggled to repay. "Prehired lured student borrowers into debt with false promises of job placements and claims that students wouldn't have to pay until they got a job," said CFPB Director Rohit Chopra. "Today's action with our state partners ensures that borrowers harmed by Prehired can receive redress and have their illegal loans canceled." The settlement — filed Monday in Bankruptcy Court for the District of Delaware — was the result of a collaboration between the agency and a coalition of states including Washington, Delaware, California, Oregon, Minnesota, Illinois, South Carolina, North Carolina, Massachusetts, Virginia and Wisconsin. The agency says that pursuant to the order, Prehired will need to reimburse $4.2 million to borrowers who made payments on the income share loans between May 2019 and March 2023. The company will also need to cancel all its remaining income share loans — roughly $27 million — making them ineligible for collection and permanently close its doors. Prehired is also permanently prohibited from offering income-share loans or vocational education services. While the vocational company already filed for bankruptcy, the order means Prehired can never reopen. Delaware-based Prehired provided 12-week virtual training programs, which it claimed would guarantee employment for students — as well as six-figure salaries — as software sales development representatives. Prehired also offered income-share loans for students to finance program expenses. An income-share agreement is a contract through which a student receives upfront money for college in exchange for a fixed percentage of future income. Consumer advocates say income-share agreements are tantamount to student loans and should be subject to more regulatory scrutiny. The company must also pay into the CFPB's victims relief fund, which the agency says will open the door for the fund to be tapped for future student compensation in the event further damage to Prehired's clients is uncovered. "Prehired will make a $1 payment to the CFPB victims relief fund," the agency noted in a release. "The payment will make it possible for the CFPB to use that fund to provide additional compensation to borrowers harmed by the company's illegal conduct."

Here's what we know so far about Biden's 'Plan B' for student loan forgiveness -- President Joe Biden's new plan to forgive student debt is likely to look much different than his first. After the Supreme Court ultimately blocked Biden's policy that would have cancelled up to $20,000 in student debt for tens of millions of people in June, the president immediately announced that he would attempt to deliver the relief another way.The president's Plan B for relief is likely to be much narrower in its reach, said higher education expert Mark Kantrowitz. That's because the justices ruled that the president's original plan, which would have covered more than 90% of federal student loan borrowers, was too far-reaching. ″'Can the Secretary use his powers to abolish $430 billion in student loans, completely canceling loan balances for 20 million borrowers, as a pandemic winds down to its end?'" wrote Chief Justice John Roberts in the majority opinion for Biden v. Nebraska. "We can't believe the answer would be yes." Less than 10% of federal student loan borrowers are likely to qualify this round, Kantrowitz said. Luke Herrine, an assistant professor of law at the University of Alabama, also believes the next forgiveness policy will include far fewer borrowers. "I think it would be easier to justify in front of a court that is skeptical of broad authority," Herrine said in an earlier interview with CNBC. The Biden administration seems focused on still delivering relief to five specific groups of borrowers, according to a recent paper issued by the U.S. Department of Education. Those are:

1. Borrowers with current balances greater than what they originally borrowed.
2. Those who entered into repayment on their student loans 25 or more years ago.
3. Students who attended programs of questionable value.
4. Borrowers eligible for existing relief programs, including Public Service Loan Forgiveness, who just haven't applied.
5. Debtors in financial hardship.

This forgiveness process is likely to take longer, experts say. Biden first tried to cancel student debt with an executive order in August 2022, and had promised borrowers the relief within six weeks of them completing their paperwork. This time he's turning to the rulemaking process. That procedure is lengthier, typically involving a public comment period and other time-consuming steps. "Issuing new regulations can take as long as a year," Kantrowitz said. If the administration is successful this time, he said, borrowers could see their debt cancellation around the time of the 2024 presidential election.

Language heard while still in the womb found to impact brain development - A team of neuroscientists at the University of Padua, in Italy, working with a colleague from CNRS and Université Paris Cité, has found evidence suggesting that neural development of babies still in the womb is impacted by the language they hear spoken by their mothers as they carry them. In their paper published in the journal Science Advances, the group describes research they conducted with newborn babies fitted with EEG caps. Prior research has shown that babies still in the womb (starting at about seven months) can hear when their mother speaks. They can also hear other sounds, such as other voices, music, and general noise. They can also recognize their mother's voice after birth and specific melodies related to her speech. Less well understood is what sort of impact hearing such things has on the neural development of the baby's brain. To learn more, the research team in Italy conducted an experiment involving 33 newborns and their mothers—all of whom were native French speakers. The experiments consisted of fitting all the newborn volunteers with caps that allowed for EEG monitoring in the days after birth. As the babies slept, the researchers played recordings of a person reading different language versions of the book, "Goldilocks, and the Three Bears." EEG recordings began during a period of silence before the book was played, continued through the reading and also during another moment of silence afterward. In studying the EEG readouts, the research team found that the babies listening to the story in French showed an increase in long-range temporal correlations—all of a type that has previously been associated with speech perception and its processing. The researchers suggest this finding is evidence of the baby's brain being impacted in a unique way by exposure to a unique language while still in utero—in this case, French. The researchers also conducted detrended fluctuation analysis on the EEG readings as a means of measuring the strength of the temporal correlations and found them to be strongest in the theta band, which prior research has shown is associated with syllable-level speech units. This, the team suggests, shows that the infants' brains became attuned to the linguistic elements present in the language they had heard.

Follow-up study finds supplementing preterm infants with DHA has no effect on neurodevelopment - Research led by the University of Adelaide, Australia, has found that supplementing infants born at less than 29 weeks gestation with docosahexaenoic acid (DHA) has no impact on behavioral functioning later in life. In a paper titled "High-Dose Docosahexaenoic Acid in Newborns Born at Less Than 29 Weeks' Gestation and Behavior at Age 5 Years," published in JAMA Pediatrics, the team conducted a follow-up of a randomized clinical trial with preterm infants. The researchers looked at behavioral and cognitive development at age five, some of whom had received DHA supplementation as neonates. Children born preterm are known to face higher risks of neurobehavioral disabilities and cognitive difficulties. Previously observed reductions in neural DHA concentration among preterm infants were considered as a potential negative influence on neurodevelopment. The clinical trial was conducted at ten Australian centers from 2012 to 2015. Infants born before 29 weeks were randomized to receive daily enteral emulsions providing 60 mg/kg/d of DHA (n=361) or a soy-oil emulsion (n=370) from within the first three days of enteral feeding until 36 weeks' postmenstrual age or discharge home, whichever occurred first. The five-year outcomes were measured based on parent-reported surveys without medical or psychological verification using the Strengths and Difficulties Questionnaire (SDQ), Behavior Rating Inventory of Executive Functioning (BRIEF), and other health-related quality of life assessments. DHA supplementation for infants born preterm showed no improvement in behavioral functioning at age five. No significant differences were found in asthma, and no adverse effects were reported. Despite previous findings of increased IQ with DHA supplementation, the study highlights the distinctness of behavioral and cognitive domains, suggesting that while DHA may affect cognition, it might not be able to influence behavior.

Overdose deaths in pregnant, postpartum women tripled in as many years: NIH - Overdose deaths among pregnant and postpartum women nearly tripled between 2018 and 2021, according to a study from the National Institutes of Health (NIH) published Wednesday.The rate of overdoses increased from 4.9 per 100,000 women between the ages 35-44 to 15.8 in 2021, the NIH said.The study authors said the increasing overdose rate could signal that there are still significant barriers to addiction treatment among vulnerable populations. “The stigma and punitive policies that burden pregnant women with substance use disorder increase overdose risk by making it harder to access life-saving treatment and resources,” said Dr. Nora Volkow, director of the National Institute on Drug Abuse (NIDA), in a statement.“Reducing barriers and the stigma that surrounds addiction can open the door for pregnant individuals to seek and receive evidence-based treatment and social support to sustain their health as well as their child’s health,” she continued.The study was mounted in order to better understand how the COVID pandemic has impacted overdose rates and people with substance abuse disorders, the NIH said. Overall, overdose rates rose sharply during the pandemic.A similar study in late 2022 found that overdose deaths among pregnant women significantly increased during the COVID-19 pandemic. The NIH study found that women who died of overdoses while pregnant were more likely to be younger than those who died of other complications during pregnancy. Overdose deaths were also more likely to be outside of health care facilities, despite a majority having access to high-quality hospitals.

Extra Fees Drive Assisted Living Profits - Assisted living centers have become an appealing retirement option for hundreds of thousands of boomers who can no longer live independently, promising a cheerful alternative to the institutional feel of a nursing home.But their cost is so crushingly high that most Americans can’t afford them.These highly profitable facilities often charge $5,000 a month or more and then layer on fees at every step. Residents’ bills and price lists from a dozen facilities offer a glimpse of the charges: $12 for a blood pressure check; $50 per injection (more for insulin); $93 a month to order medications from a pharmacy not used by the facility; $315 a month for daily help with an inhaler.The facilities charge extra to help residents get to the shower, bathroom, or dining room; to deliver meals to their rooms; to have staff check-ins for daily “reassurance” or simply to remind residents when it’s time to eat or take their medication. Some even charge for routine billing of a resident’s insurance for care.“They say, ‘Your mother forgot one time to take her medications, and so now you’ve got to add this on, and we’re billing you for it,’” said Lori Smetanka, executive director of the National Consumer Voice for Quality Long-Term Care, a nonprofit. About 850,000 older Americans reside in assisted living facilities, which have become one of the most lucrative branches of the long-term care industry that caters to people 65 and older. Investors, regional companies, and international real estate trusts have jumped in: Half of operators in the business of assisted living earn returns of 20% or more than it costs to run the sites, an industry survey shows. That is far higher than the money made in most other health sectors.Rents are often rivaled or exceeded by charges for services, which are either packaged in a bundle or levied à la carte. Overall prices have been rising faster than inflation, and rent increases since the start of last year have been higher than at any previous time since at least 2007, according to the National Investment Center for Seniors Housing & Care, which provides data and other information to companies.There are now 31,000 assisted living facilities nationwide — twice the number of skilled nursing homes. Four of every five facilities are run as for-profits. Members of racial or ethnic minority groups account for only a tenth of residents, even though they make up a quarter of the population of people 65 or older in the United States.A public opinion survey conducted by KFF found that 83% of adults said it would be impossible or very difficult to pay $60,000 a year for an assisted living facility. Almost half of those surveyed who either lived in a long-term care residence or had a loved one who did encountered unexpected add-on fees for things they assumed were included in the price.Assisted living is part of a broader affordability crisis in long-term care for the swelling population of older Americans. Over the past decade, the market for long-term care insurance has virtually collapsed, covering just a tiny portion of older people. Home health workers who can help people stay safely in their homes are generally poorly paid and hard to find.And even older people who can afford an assisted living facility often find their life savings rapidly drained.

One-third in new survey worried about catching flu, COVID, RSV in next three months -More than a third of Americans say they are worried that they or one of their family members will contract a seasonal respiratory virus like the flu, COVID-19 or RSV in the coming months, though vaccine enthusiasm appears to be middling at best. The survey was conducted by the Annenberg Public Policy Center of the University of Pennsylvania Oct. 5-12. When participants were asked how worried they were that they or one of their family members would contract RSV, COVID or the flu in the next three months, 35 percent said they were worried about RSV and COVID, while 39 percent said they were worried about the flu to some degree. However, getting vaccinated against these viruses appeared to be less of a concern for the participants of the survey. Only about a fifth — 21 percent — said they had gotten the season flu shot this season. The report noted this was lower than the percentage of people who had gotten vaccinated against the flu at the same time last year, which was 26 percent. “Because getting a flu shot yearly not only helps to protect us from serious infection but also predicts our acceptance of other CDC-recommended vaccines, the drop in reported flu vaccination we see reflected in our panel is worrisome,” said Kathleen Hall Jamieson, director of the Annenberg Public Policy Center. According to the most recent estimates from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), the national flu coverage for adults in the U.S., including Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands, is at 34.8 percent. Participants were also split when it came to preventive medicines against COVID-19 and RSV. When it came to the new COVID-19 shots, 44 percent said they were unlikely to get the shot compared to 40 percent who said they were likely to get it. Only 8 percent said they had already received the shot, though the survey was conducted only a month after the start of the updated COVID-19 vaccine campaign, which experienced a few early bumps. During the first few weeks of the vaccine campaign, appointments became hard to come by in some areas and many people erroneously were told that their insurers were not covering the shot. A recent survey from KFF found that half of adults said they do not plan to get the latest COVID-19 vaccine and only about 1 out of 5 said they have gotten it so far. About a quarter of adults, however, said while they haven’t gotten it yet, they do plan to get immunized. An RSV vaccine for seniors was approved earlier this year and most participants — 55 percent — said they were likely to recommend that a friend or family member over the age of 60 speak to their health care provider about the medicine. This same vaccine — Abrysvo — was also approved for administration in pregnant women so their newborn infants can be born with some protection against RSV in the first 6 months of life, when they are particularly vulnerable to severe infection. Participants were split fairly evenly when asked if they would recommend a pregnant friend or family member get this vaccine, with 45 percent saying it was unlikely they would do so and 43 percent saying it was likely. TAGS

Fractional COVID-19 booster vaccines produce similar immune response as full doses, study shows - Reducing the dose of a widely used COVID-19 booster vaccine produces a similar immune response in adults to a full dose with fewer side effects, according to a new study.The research, led by Murdoch Children's Research Institute (MCRI) and the National Center for Communicable Diseases in Mongolia, found that a half dose of a Pfizer COVID-19 booster vaccine elicited a non-inferior immune response to a full dose in Mongolian adults who previously had AstraZeneca or Sinopharm COVID-19 shots. But it found half-dose boosting may be less effective in adults primed with the Sputnik V COVID-19 vaccine.The research is part of an international clinical trial, which also includes Australia and Indonesia, that's investigating the different COVID-19 booster shot approaches to help guide future vaccination strategies.The first batch of findings, published in The Lancet Regional Health—Western Pacific, and involving 601 participants over 18 years old from Mongolia, reports on the initial responses seen 28-days after vaccination. The study is the first of its kind to assess and compare COVID-19 vaccines widely used in low- and middle-income countries.MCRI Professor Kim Mulholland, who also sits on the WHO SAGE committee, said the study found that fractional doses elicited an immune response that was non-inferior to a full dose with fewer side effects and was less costly."Fractional dosing may improve COVID-19 booster acceptability and uptake and reduce the per-dose cost of COVID-19 booster programs," he said. "Policymakers and immunization advisory committees can draw upon this data to make flexible boosting schedules decisions."The study found half-dose boosted participants reported fewer local reactions than those receiving full doses (60 percent versus 72 percent) including less pain and tenderness. They also reported fewer systemic reactions (25 percent versus 32 percent) including less fevers, vomiting, diarrhea and headaches.

Kids largely left out of US trials of COVID-19 treatments - Less than 10% of US interventional COVID-19 trials in the first 3 years of the pandemic included children, and only 1.6% enrolled them exclusively, despite this age-group accounting for 18% of infections, Harvard and Boston Children's Hospital researchers report today in JAMA Health Forum. The team identified all COVID-19 trials registered on ClinicalTrials.gov from January 2020 to December 2022. They noted that children have been underrepresented in clinical research owing to ethical, logistical, and financial reasons. "The emergence of the COVID-19 pandemic triggered a rapid investment in research activities to identify prevention measures and develop therapeutic interventions," they wrote. "While children were eventually determined to have a milder disease course compared with adults, studying children was critical to elucidate transmission patterns and identify treatments for pediatric patients with severe disease, including multisystem inflammatory syndrome." Of 1,216 trials, 20 (1.6%) enrolled only children, while 120 (9.9%) included only children or both children and adults, and 1,096 (90.1%) enrolled only adults. The percentage of trials enrolling children rose from 45 (7.1%) in 2020 to 27 (15.7%) in 2022. Relative to adult-only studies, those including children were less likely to focus on COVID-19 treatments (48.3% vs 69.8%) or on testing medications, biologics, or devices (48.3% vs 64.6%). Rather, they tended to focus on prevention (47.5% vs 23.0%), behavior (25.8% vs 16.8%), and vaccines (14.2% vs 5.8%).

Half of COVID survivors still had symptoms at 3 years, more reinfections amid Omicron - Three years after COVID-19 infection, 54% of adults in a Chinese cohort still had at least one symptom, most of them mild to moderate in severity, with higher rates of reinfection and pneumonia after the emergence of the Omicron variant, shows a study published yesterday in The Lancet Respiratory Medicine. Researchers from China-Japan Friendship Hospital in Beijing led the study of 1,359 COVID-19 patients released from Jinyintan Hospital in Wuhan from January to May 2020. The patients completed three follow-up visits at 6 months, 1 year, and 2 years after illness onset. The study period spanned the predominance of wild-type SARS-CoV-2 and the emergence of all variants up to Omicron. At 1 year, COVID-naïve controls from two communities in Wuhan were recruited. At 2 years, the controls were matched in a 1:1 ratio with the COVID-19 patients who underwent lung function tests. At 3 years, all eligible COVID-19 survivors and controls matched at 2-year follow-up completed several face-to-face questionnaires, a 6-minute walking test (6MWT), and lab tests from February to April 2023. Community controls and a sample of COVID-19 survivors stratified by illness severity during hospitalization underwent lung function tests. COVID-19 patients who underwent high-resolution computed tomography (CT) and had abnormal lung imaging results at 2 years were reevaluated. Of the 1,359 COVID-19 survivors, 728 (54%) reported one or more mostly mild or moderate lingering symptoms at 3 years. After Omicron emerged in November 2021, relative to participants without long COVID, those with long COVID at 2 years had significantly higher rates of reinfection (76% vs 67%) and pneumonia (5% vs 2%). Three months after Omicron infection, 126 of 204 COVID-19 survivors with long COVID at 2 years (62%) had new-onset or worsened symptoms, a significantly higher proportion than in the group without long COVID (41%) and controls (40%). The percentage wasn't significantly different between COVID-19 survivors without persistent symptoms and controls (41% vs 39%). At 3 years, reinfection was a risk factor for shortness of breath (odds ratio [OR], 1.36), anxiety or depression (OR, 1.65), and EuroQol visual analog score (β, –4·51) but not for less daily activity (OR, 0.72). The lung function of COVID-19 survivors at 3 years was comparable to that of controls. "Although the organ function of survivors of COVID-19 recovered over time, those with severe long COVID symptoms, abnormal organ function, or limited mobility require urgent attention in future clinical practice and research," the study authors wrote.

MRI study spotlights impact of long COVID on the brain - A new study comparing magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) images of patients with long COVID, fully recovered COVID-19 survivors, and healthy controls shows microstructural changes in different brain regions in the long-COVID patients. The findings will be presented next week at the annual meeting of the Radiological Society of North America. The research is the first to use diffusion microstructure imaging (DMI), a novel MRI technique, which looks at the movement of water molecules in tissues. DFI can detect smaller brain changes than traditional MRI. MRIs have thus far failed to compare microstructural differences in the brain of patients with long COVID, frustrating clinicians searching for a pathophysiologic explanation of the disorder, which affects up to 10% to 15% of COVID-19 patients. "Diffusion microstructure imaging (DMI) is a promising approach to fill this gap, as it detects even small volume shifts between microstructural compartments of a neural tissue model," the authors of the study said. The study included images from 89 patients with long COVID, 38 COVID-19 patients who didn't report long-term symptoms, and 46 healthy controls with no history of COVID-19 infection. Among participants with long COVID, 53% of patients could not return to their previous level of independence and/or employment due to infection. Cognitive performance was impaired in 41%, 78% said they had fatigue, and 73% had impaired olfaction. In an abstract on the findings, the authors explain whole-brain DMI-data revealed a volume-shift from the extraneurite compartment into the free water fraction for the gray matter positively associated with the severity of the initial COVID-19 infection. "This study allows for an in vivo insight on the impact of COVID-19 on the brain," said lead study author Alexander Rau, MD, of the University Hospital Freiburg in Germany, in a press release. "Expression of post-COVID symptoms was associated with specific affected cerebral networks, suggesting a pathophysiological basis of this syndrome."

UK primary care costs nearly 45% higher among long-COVID patients, analysis finds - Long-COVID diagnoses and long-term symptoms among nonhospitalized adults were tied to 43% and 44% increases in the costs of primary care, respectively, in the United Kingdom, according to a studypublished yesterday in BMC Primary Care.A team led by University of Birmingham researchers analyzed data in the Clinical Practice Research Datalink Aurum primary care database to estimate additional primary care costs of and risk factors for persistent COVID-19 symptoms at least 3 months after infection at the individual and national level. The study, which included 472,173 COVID-19 survivors and an equal number of matched uninfected participants, used data from January 2020 to April 2021. Long-COVID (DLC) and symptomatic long-COVID (SLC) subgroups were made up of 3,871 (0.8%) and 30,174 (6.4%) patients, respectively. The average age was 44 years, 55% were women, 64% were White, and 55% were overweight or obese.

Do Masks Work During the Pandemic? Scientists Say “Yes.” Secondary Reviews of Clinical Trials Say “No.” So, Which Is It? --Yves here. Many of you may recall that Yaneer Bar-Yam and Nassim Nicholas Taleb, who are two of the four authors of a paper on the considerable and wide-ranging analytical/statistical defects in the infamous anti-mask Cochrane Report. were, along with Jospeh Norman, very early to warn (January 26, 2020) that Covid-19 had the potential to become a pandemic. The possibility of a Seriously Bad fat-tailed outcome meant aggressive action was the rational response. The fact that Covid-19 was a pandemic was not acknowledged by health officials until March. Norman, Bar-Yam and Taleb stressed:Together, these observations lead to the necessity of a precautionary approach to current and potential pandemic outbreaks that must include constraining mobility patterns in the early stages of an outbreak, especially when little is known about the true parameters of the pathogen.It will cost something to reduce mobility in the short term, but to fail do so will eventually cost everything—if not from this event, then one in the futureBiomedical scientist GM similarly had argued it would have been possible to contain the spread of the wild type Covid, which was much less transmissible than later variants, if officials had acted aggressively and early when the total number of infected was less than enormous and contract tracing also would have been viable. But that small window for effective action was lost. As we see regularly, far too many have rubbished another important risk-reduction strategy, masking. The fact that wearing a maks to prevent contagion is considered polite in Japan and Southeast Asia and is separately often used as a response to poor air quality likely goes a long way in explaining much lower Covid infection rates in those regions versus, say, the Anglosphere. Lambert looks to be on to something when he keeps muttering about democidal elites….

Pfizer sues Poland over Covid-19 vaccine - US pharmaceutical giant Pfizer has escalated its feud with Poland over excess Covid-19 vaccine doses that were ordered under a massive contract with the European Union, filing a lawsuit to demand payment for 60 million jabs that Warsaw didn’t need. The case was filed this week in Brussels, demanding 6 billion zloty ($1.5 billion) for the vaccines that Poland’s government declined after it stopped taking delivery of the jabs in April 2019. Warsaw was locked into buying its share of Covid-19 inoculations under a controversial contract that the European Commission signed with Pfizer in 2021 on behalf of EU nations. The bloc wound up ordering 1.1 billion doses under the contract, saddling EU states with a vaccine glut as the Covid-19 pandemic waned. The EU prosecutor’s office announced an investigation of the procurement process amid allegations of corruption and secret backroom dealings. Polish officials questioned the role of European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen in making the deal. Von der Leyen admitted to privately communicating with Pfizer CEO Albert Bourla for weeks during the contract negotiations, but the European Commission said last year that her text exchanges with the executive could not be found. EU chief can’t find Pfizer CEO texts EU chief can’t find Pfizer CEO texts The first hearing in Pfizer’s lawsuit is scheduled to take place on December 6. The company offered earlier this year to give the EU more time to complete its minimum vaccine purchases under the binding contract, but it insisted that it eventually be paid for the full number of doses to which the bloc committed. Poland refused to sign on to a revised EU agreement with the drugmaker. Polish Health Minister Katarzyna Sojka told broadcaster TVN24 on Wednesday that there is some hope of resolving the Pfizer lawsuit “in a positive way.” She noted that Warsaw is not alone in the issue, as other EU states will face similar lawsuits. Pfizer decided to go forward with the lawsuit “following a prolonged contract breach and a period of discussions in good faith between the parties,” a company spokesman told Politico.

New surge in New Zealand COVID-19 cases and deaths -In line with a global surge in COVID-19 cases, powered by the emergence of new variants, New Zealand’s pandemic tragedy is again escalating. Reported case numbers across the country increased more than 32 percent last week, according to data released by Te Whatu Ora Health NZ. Four years into the global pandemic, cases are again exploding in one country after another. The resumption of wastewater analysis in the United States indicates cases have climbed by 28 percent over the past month, heading into winter. In Australia, experts have warned of millions of looming cases as an eighth wave hits, with Omicron subvariants EG.5 (Eris) and BA.2.86 (Pirola) circulating nationwide. Data on the current surge in New Zealand is based on wastewater tests, case counts and deaths. Director of Public Health Dr Nick Jones said: “These waves are likely due to people’s immunity waning, and the introduction of new hybrid variants which increase the community’s susceptibility.” In the seven days to midnight on November 19, 7,881 COVID-19 cases were reported—up from 5,947 the previous week: an increase of 32.5 percent. The seven-day rolling average of daily new cases was 1,124, compared to 849 a week prior. The real numbers are undoubtedly much higher, given that many people have stopped reporting positive tests. Hospitalisations have increased significantly. At midnight last Sunday, 349 people were in hospital with COVID-19, up from 284 the same time a week earlier. Working class areas in Auckland, the country’s biggest city, are the hardest hit. The Waitematā district (north and west Auckland) reported the highest number of cases (1,171), followed by Counties Manukau (south and east Auckland), with 1,060 cases. To date, officials have attributed a total of 3,522 deaths to COVID-19, which is likely an understatement. In a further 176 deaths among people who had the virus, the cause is unconfirmed. There are an additional 1,520 deaths recorded among people with COVID, where the cause has been listed as “not COVID,” without any further details. All but 30 of these deaths occurred after then Labour Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern announced the abandonment of the COVID-19 elimination policy in late 2021 and adopted the criminal “let it rip” policy that has now killed more than 27.4 million people globally. On August 14, Ardern’s successor, Chris Hipkins, announced the “formal end” of the remaining public health measures: a seven-day isolation requirement for people infected with COVID and mandatory masking in health facilities. Business groups, who had lobbied strenuously against any measures impacting on private profits, welcomed the decision. Public health experts, however, questioned the rationale. Professor Nick Wilson from the University of Otago bluntly said the government was wrong to end isolation requirements. “The government is so keen to pretend it’s all over, despite people dying daily in hospital. It’s not trivial,” he said.

Australia is facing a new COVID wave. Why now? - Australia is now into its next COVID wave. We've seen hints of this for a while. Case numbers and indicators of severe disease began rising in Victoria in August. But it has taken several months for a consistent pattern to emerge across Australia. Now we see evidence of this new wave via wastewater surveillance for traces of SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID. We also see rises in COVID-related hospital admissions and antiviral prescriptions. Compared to past waves, this one has built up slowly and over a longer period. In earlier waves, when more people were testing for COVID and reporting their results, we were more confident case numbers were a reasonable reflection of how COVID was tracking. However, now, a more useful indicator for COVID nationally is to look at trends in the number of prescriptions for the antiviral medications ritonavir (Paxlovid) and molnupiravir (Lagevrio) on the Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme (PBS). In the graph below, which is drawn from national prescribing data, you can clearly see script numbers rising. It has become more difficult to predict the size and timing of the peak. Reduced access to COVID testing and fewer requirements or opportunities to report test results, combined with the slow growth rate for this wave, give a wider range of possibilities. The wave is also likely to differ between states and territories, as some got off to a later start. Here's a rundown of all the updated facts on the coronavirus Australia appears to be on the verge of an eighth COVID wave, with Victoria and NSW residents urged to wear masks to limit community transmission. However, given the wave's slow growth rate and further increases in hybrid immunity (immunity from both vaccination and infection) over 2023, it's reasonable to expect this to be the smallest Omicron wave so far. We also expect it will be over by early in the summer holiday period. That's when rates of community contact decline significantly, as work and school contacts are much reduced. That means fewer opportunities for the virus to spread between networks of family and friends. Why now? It's unlikely this latest COVID wave stems from changes in behaviour. People are generally out and about, fewer people are wearing masks in public. But we don't see any dramatic shifts in this type of behaviour in 2023 compared with 2022. It's not a seasonal cause, given respiratory viruses tend to spread better in winter, when we're cooped up indoors with others. It's unlikely it's our waning immunity from infection or vaccination that's prompting these successive waves. Instead, we're seeing the result of a constantly mutating virus. Successful SARS-CoV-2 variants are gradually acquiring mutations. Some of these changes reduce the ability of existing antibodies to bind to and neutralise the virus. So it appears it's still the "immune escape" variants that are behind these latest waves. The primary viral lineage in Australia this year has been XBB. Over the past six months, its two most influential mutations have been:

• the F456L mutation that led to the rise of EG.5.1, also known as Eris
• more recently, the paired "FLip" mutations F456L+L455F. We see these in offspring of Eris and in much-less closely related lineages. This is a clear sign these mutations help the virus spread better.

Both the single and paired mutations make existing antibodies less effective at blocking SARS-CoV-2 from binding to critical receptors on our cells. This increases our susceptibility to infection. The novel BA.2.86 lineage – colloquially known as Pirola – was first reported in Denmark in August and has many unique mutations. It has not been influential so far in this wave in Australia. But it has continued to evolve. And we may see it play a much bigger role in Australia in 2024.

The eighth COVID-19 wave is here. Could catching it trigger Alzheimer's, Parkinson's or autoimmune disorders? - From the earliest days of the COVID-19 pandemic, scientists have raised concerns about the potential for long-term health problems linked to SARS-CoV-2 and warned repeated infections are likely to increase the risk.An association between COVID and cardiovascular disease emerged quickly.And now — almost exactly four years since the first case was discovered in Wuhan — a growing body of scientific research is cautiously linking the inflammation caused by a COVID infection to diseases like Alzheimer's and Parkinson's as well as autoimmune conditions from bowel disease to rheumatoid arthritis.The virus has even been suggested to impact some pregnant women, associated withdouble the risk of premature delivery. As the eighth COVID wave hits Australia, experts are taking notice."Large epidemiological studies looking at the risk profile [suggest] an increase in the incidence of these diseases concomitant with the infection. But it is still early days and the data is still emerging," says Professor Kevin Barnham from the Florey Institute of Neuroscience and Mental Health at the University of Melbourne.Professor Catherine Bennett, the chair of epidemiology at Deakin University has spent her career studying how disease impacts communities. "We know inflammation is behind a lot of disease," she says. "And so anyone looking at diseases [like SARS-CoV-2] where that's part of the aetiology will be watching with concern."Barnham stresses current research doesn't show SARS-CoV-2 directly causes these complications: not everyone who contracts COVID will be affected.But the findings do suggest a COVID infection is one of "a raft of contributing factors" that can significantly increase the risk in susceptible people, perhaps those who already have a genetic predisposition to a particular disease or condition."Our immune systems are sometimes so well primed they can overreact," he says. "That immune system can be activated by pollution, by a variety of viruses and bacterial infections as well. All these things add up."

The end of the fourth year of the COVID-19 pandemic and the demise of public health - It was about four years ago that the virus that causes COVID-19 jumped from animals into their handlers and then the local customers that shopped at the Huanan Seafood Market in Wuhan, China. This crossover led to a sustained community transmission that over several weeks caught the attention of the local medical and public health officials and soon the world at large. Since then, the various forms of criminal neglect on the part of the ruling elites, such as “herd immunity,” “let it rip” and “learn to live with the virus,” have led to 7 million official global COVID-19 deaths. The estimated global excess deaths of 27.4 million are nearly four times the official death toll. With the abandonment of all essential COVID-19 trackers on rates of infection and direct and related deaths from COVID-19, the exact current impact of the disease remains largely a subject of guesswork and will only be really known when epidemiologists and modelers conduct their retrospective analysis of year-to-year trends in mortality. Red painted hearts inscribed with loved ones names are seen on the The National Covid Memorial Wall dedicated to those who died from the coronavirus in London, Tuesday, June 13, 2023. [AP Photo/Alastair Grant] In the US, where wastewater levels of SARS-CoV-2 have continued to be published for the time being, as of November 6, levels of community transmission were continuing their climb or remaining at high levels. Modelers like Dr. Mike Hoerger estimate the total at more than 670,000 daily cases. Certainly, with the holidays fast approaching and the latest iterations of the Omicron variants circulating, these figures are expected to climb. We are once more amid the early phase of the winter wave. Since September 23, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) COVID-19 tracker, emergency room visits, hospitalizations and deaths are up approximately 10 percent. As of the week ending November 11, there have been 16,239 COVID-19 hospitalizations. In the week ending October 21 (the date reflects the delay in tracking deaths), another 1,265 people died. In total, throughout October over 5,000 people lost their lives. Also worrisome is the abysmal vaccine uptake seen across the country, with only 14 percent of adults thus far having received a dose of the latest version of the COVID-19 boosters. Masking has become essentially nonexistent, even in healthcare settings where facility-induced COVID-19 infections pose great hazards to nursing home patients and those admitted to hospitals. Perhaps most glaring has been the recent report in the New York Times concerning the massive toll COVID-19 has taken on the cognitive functions of younger Americans, and by extension, hundreds of millions of people, even billions, across the globe. In the US, the prevalence of Long COVID ranges from 5 to 15 percent, or an estimated 10 to 30 million working age adults. The article notes, “The number of working-age adults reporting ‘serious difficulty’ thinking has climbed [during the pandemic] by an estimated one million people.” The percent of 18- to 44-year-olds that say they have serious difficult remembering is now on par with those between ages of 45 to 64. That these trends have not returned to their previous marks suggest the impact will have a chronic toll on the population and are ongoing. Studies on the impact of COVID-19 on the neurological system have found that almost a third of people who get COVID-19 develop some level of cognitive impairments several months later, ranging from mild to debilitating, according to the report. “It’s not just [brain] fog, it’s a brain injury, basically. There are neurovascular changes. There’s inflammation. There are changes on MRIs” (brain scans).

Community antibiotic use returned to pre-pandemic levels in Europe in 2022 -An analysis of community antibiotic consumption in Europe shows a return to pre–COVID-19 pandemic levels, researchers reported last week in Eurosurveillance.Using data from the European Surveillance of Antimicrobial Consumption Network (ESAC-Net), a team led by researchers from the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, analyzed community-sector consumption of antibacterials for systemic use in 29 European Union/European Economic Activity (EU/EEA) countries from 2019 through 2022.They found an 18.5% decrease in community antibiotic consumption—measured in defined daily doses per 1,000 inhabitants per day—in 2020 compared with 2019. As in non-European countries, the reduction in community antibiotic use has been attributed to pandemic-related non-pharmaceutical interventions and disrupted access to healthcare services. Consumption rates remained similar in 2021 in most EU/EEA countries.In 2022, however, as countries lifted non-pharmaceutical interventions, ESAC-Net data showed mean community consumption increased by 18.8% from 2021 levels and then returned to pre-pandemic levels. In 13 countries, community antibiotic consumption was higher in 2022 than in 2019, with an average increase of 8.4%.The study authors say the rebound could be explained by a resurgence of viral and bacterial infections as pandemic restrictions were lifted, but "could also reflect a missed opportunity to strengthen and reinforce prudent antibiotic use."They add that to achieve the EU target of a 20% reduction in total antibiotic consumption (community and hospital sectors combined) by 2030, most EU countries will need to intensify their efforts to reduce unnecessary antibiotic use."Antibiotic stewardship activities strengthening prudent community consumption plays [sic] a vital role in this, as community consumption accounts for around 90% of the total antibiotic consumption," they wrote.

Hospital execs see worsening antibiotic-resistance threat, survey finds - A new survey of 158 hospital executives, conducted by the Sepsis Alliance, found that 90% see antimicrobial resistance (AMR) as a threat, and 88% think the problem is getting worse. The survey, conducted by Sage Growth Partners on behalf of the Sepsis Alliance, also dug into executives' views on other related AMR issues. An 11-page report on the findings was published on the Sepsis Alliance website on November 17.Another top concern is the public's lack of knowledge about AMR, with 59% of executives saying that public education of clinicians as well as patients is the largest barrier to antibiotic stewardship. Respondents recommend public service announcements covering the need for early treatment, the importance of completing treatment, and storing the drugs properly. The survey also revealed some knowledge gaps about key legislative efforts to curb AMR, with 72% of executives unfamiliar with the provisions of the PASTEUR (Pioneering Antimicrobial Subscriptions to End Upsurging Resistance) Act, a proposal to create a subscription-style payment model in which the federal government would pay up front for access to Food and Drug Administration–approved antibiotics that target drug-resistant pathogens and meet critical, unmet health needs. Also, the survey gauged the state of antibiotic stewardship programs at hospitals. Nearly all the executives (98%) said their organization has one, but only 26% would give their facility an A for stewardship efforts, with only 17% saying they were extremely confident in their organization's strategies for managing AMR. Barriers included underuse of infectious disease physicians and pharmacists, cost justification for new antibiotics, pushback on stewardship recommendations, and staffing shortages.When asked what would help hospitals improve their AMR efforts, 54% responded that better availability of rapid tests and 54% said improved quality of rapid diagnostics would help..

More US parents plan to vaccinate kids against RSV, flu than COVID, survey shows -A Texas A&M University survey of US parents finds that 41% already had or would vaccinate their children against COVID-19, 63% against influenza, and 71% against respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) this fall and winter. The study, published late last week in Vaccine, involved 5,035 parents of children younger than 18 years surveyed on September 27 and 28, 2023.In total, 40.9% of respondents said they had or would vaccinate their children against COVID-19, while 63.3% said they would do so against flu, and 71.1% said their children would receive the RSV vaccine.

Study: Flu vaccination reduces risk of heart attack -A meta-analysis published yesterday in Scientific Reportsinvolving 9,059 patients shows a 26% decreased risk of heart attacks in people who received a flu vaccine and a 33% reduction in cardiovascular deaths."These findings highlight the potential of influenza vaccination as an adjunctive strategy in cardiovascular disease prevention," the authors write.The authors searched all English-language scientific literature databases for studies looking at cardiovascular disease and influenza vaccines. In the final analysis of five studies, 4,529 patients who received flu vaccine were compared with 4,530 patients who received a placebo.The average age of study participants was 61.3 years, and study follow-up lasted on average 9 months. Participants who received the flu vaccine saw a notable reduction in the occurrence of major cardiovascular events, with 517 cases compared to 621 cases in the placebo group (risk ratio [RR], 0.70; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.55 to 0.91).There was a decreased risk of heart attacks in vaccinated patients (RR, 0.74; 95% CI, 0.56 to 0.97) and a significant reduction in cardiovascular death events (RR, 0.67; 95% CI, 0.45 to 0.98).The authors of the study said there are several theories as to why vaccination protects heart health, including lowering inflammation caused by influenza, preventing secondary infections, and ensuring the stability of atherosclerotic plaque, which can become destabilized during the flu.

Undiagnosed pneumonia outbreak in China puts pressure on pediatric hospitals, prompts questions - An undetermined pneumonia outbreak in China is hitting children hard, with media reports describing overwhelmed children's hospitals in multiple locations, according a post on ProMED Mail, the online reporting system of the International Society for Infectious Diseases. So far, there is no indication that the infections are deadly. But reports of a spike in pneumonia cases in China are eerily similar to early reports of a mystery pneumonia outbreak in late 2019 in Wuhan, which heralded the emergence of COVID-19.Children's main symptoms are high fever, with some kids developing pulmonary nodules.The media reports reference swamped pediatric hospitals in multiple locations, including Beijing and Liaoning, which is nearly 500 miles away. Reports also say the pneumonia outbreaks have led to school cancellations and some illnesses in teachers.Some observers speculate the outbreak could be caused by Mycoplasma pneumoniae, commonly known as "walking pneumonia." FluTrackers, an infectious disease news message board, has been tracking reports of overwhelmed pediatric hospitals and clinics and Mycoplasma pneumonia since the beginning of summer.US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) background information on Mycoplasma pneumoniaeinfection notes that the bacterium typically causes mild respiratory infections that can sometimes lead to serious illnesses that can require hospitalization. In children, the infection resembles a chest cold. The illness can spread in crowded settings, including schools and college residence halls.On Twitter (X) today, Krutika Kuppalli, MD, an infectious disease physician who is with the WHO's Health Emergencies Program, said it's possible that China could be seeing a surge in respiratory infections as other countries did their first winter after lockdowns lifted.She added that China has already reported a Mycoplasma pneumonia surge, but the current outbreaks could be anything. She also said respiratory syncytial virus, COVID-19, and flu could be contributing factors. "The point is we need information."

WHO asks China to provide more details on spike in pneumonia cases among children --The World Health Organisation (WHO) has officially requested China to share detailed information about respiratory illnesses and reported clusters of pneumonia in children.The request by WHO on Wednesday comes as Chinese authorities said that there was an increase in the number of respiratory illnesses. There are reports of hospitals in northern China facing an increase in paediatric visits as the winter season sets in, with one children’s hospital director saying on Saturday that his staff are overwhelmed with patients.The WHO cited a 13 November press conference of the National Health Commission in saying that there has been an increase in “influenza-like illness” in northern China since mid-October, unlike the past three years.It also pointed to media and global infectious disease monitoring service ProMED in saying there were reports of an “undiagnosed pneumonia in children in northern China”.The UN’s health agency, however, said it was unclear if there was any link between clusters of undiagnosed pneumonia and a rise in respiratory infections.“It is unclear if these are associated with the overall increase in respiratory infections previously reported by Chinese authorities, or separate events,” it said.The WHO has “requested additional epidemiologic and clinical information, as well as laboratory results from these reported clusters among children”.“It is not at all clear when this outbreak started, as it would be unusual for so many children to be affected so quickly,” said ProMED, adding that reports of illness among children suggest “some exposure at the schools”.It said it awaited further information about the scope of the issue and that it was too early to speculate.The Beijing Aviation General Hospital on Friday said that its paediatrics unit had grappled with pneumonia and flu cases since the beginning of autumn. There was a 30-50 per cent uptick in visits in the same period, compared to previous years.In Tianjin Children’s Hospital staff have been overwhelmed, said its director Liu Wei in a letter published on WeChat. In the last 24 hours, more than 13,171 patients were admitted to the hospital’s two campuses, the letter said.The onset of novel diseases, especially potential pandemic-causing strains like new flu viruses, often begins with undiagnosed clusters of respiratory illnesses. Instances such as Sars and Covid-19 initially surfaced as atypical forms of pneumonia.

WHO Recommends Masks, Social Distancing In China Amid Mystery Pneumonia Outbreak The World Health Organization (WHO) is recommending that people in China wear masks, socially distance and stay home if they're unwell, as cases of an 'undiagnosed pneumonia' has been detected in hospitals in Beijing and Liaoning - located roughly 500 miles northeast of the capital.According to reports, healthcare facilities are "overwhelmed" with sick children, whose schools are on the verge of suspending classes. Meanwhile, the situation prompted an alert from ProMed, the disease surveillance system which similarly sounded the alarm when COVID-19 was an emerging mystery infection in Wuhan towards the end of 2019. The WHO, which of course helped China cover-up during the early days of the COVID-19 pandemic, says 'no unusual or novel' pathogens have been detected, Reuters reports. The State Council said influenza would peak this winter and spring and mycoplasma pneumoniae infection would continue to be high in some areas in future. It also warned of the risk of a rebound in COVID infections."All localities should strengthen information reporting on infectious diseases to ensure information is reported in a timely and accurate manner," the State Council said in a statement.The situation came into the spotlight this week when the WHO asked China for more information, citing a report by the Program for Monitoring Emerging Diseases (ProMED) on clusters of undiagnosed pneumonia in children.Both China and the WHO have faced questions about the transparency of reporting on the earliest COVID-19 cases that emerged in the central city of Wuhan in late 2019.Since the beginning of October, the Beijing CDC says that more than 3,500 cases of "respiratory infection" had been admitted into the Beijing's Children's Hospital, Radio Free Asia (funded by the US State Department) reported.

Nipah virus outbreak in Kerala, India contained after 6 infections - A Nipah virus outbreak occurred in the Kozhikode district of the southern Indian state of Kerala between September 12–15. The outbreak resulted in six people being infected with two deaths, while authorities contained the outbreak through testing over 1,288 close contacts and closing several schools, workplaces and public transport networks. According to the World Health Organization (WHO), this is the sixth outbreak of the Nipah virus in India since 2001. The outbreak, although contained, was a warning of the growing danger of zoonotic spillover events under conditions in which public health has been drastically undermined during the COVID-19 pandemic. Nipah infection symptoms can range from nothing at all to severe flu symptoms including fever, cough, headache, shortness of breath and confusion. In some cases, the symptoms can be more severe, including the patient going into a coma, encephalitis (swelling of the brain) and seizures. The virus has a very high lethality ranging from 40–75 percent. It is a biosafety level 4 (BSL-4) pathogen, the highest level, indicating its extreme danger to humans. Nipah virus is a member of the Henipavirus genus consisting of a single strand of ribonucleic acid (RNA). It is a zoonotic virus that lives in fruit bats of the Pteropus genus, with people becoming infected through contact with contaminated secretions. Human-to-human infection is limited to those who come in close contact with infected people. Nipah is highly contagious in pigs and is known as barking pig syndrome, and humans can become infected from contact with infected pigs. To date, outbreaks have occurred in Bangladesh, India, Philippines, Malaysia and Singapore. Bats “can urinate and contaminate fruit, and when people eat that they get the virus and then they get sick. Once you get it, [the only treatments are] rest, hydration, treatment of symptoms,” associate professor of molecular engineering Joanne Macdonal of the University of the Sunshine Coast in Australia told the Guardian. The Nipah virus was discovered relatively recently in 1998–99 after an outbreak in Malaysia and Singapore among pig farmers. About 300 people were infected causing 100 deaths, while over 1 million pigs were killed to control the outbreak.

Study uncovers no compelling evidence that air purifiers prevent respiratory infections -The COVID pandemic led to many calls for improved indoor air quality with claims that doing so would reduce the risk of the virus spreading. However, the real-world evidence to support these claims has been lacking, and studies undertaken during the pandemic have not yet been reported.So, my colleagues and I reviewed the evidence before COVID and found that the balance of evidence was that air treatment does not, in fact, reduce illness from respiratory infections.There are two main types of air treatment devices: filters and air disinfectors. Filters work by removing particles from the air that may contain infectious viruses. Air disinfectors use ultraviolet radiation or ozone to inactivate viruses in the air.In our systematic review, we found 32 observational and experimental studies on the topic conducted between 1970 and 2022. Overall, the evidence was that these technologies did not reduce either the frequency of illness or its severity.When looking at laboratory-confirmed influenza or norovirus infections, there was an apparent trend towards fewer infections. However, there was evidence of strongpublication bias—which is where significantly positive results are more likely to get published than negative results.Publication bias makes the apparent impact of any intervention or treatment appear stronger than it is, as those negative studies are simply not published. Our review concluded that there is no strong evidence that air treatment technologies reduce the risks of respiratory-transmitted illnesses. None of the studies included in the review was directly about COVID, as none had been published during the study period.However, a recent German study (published in July), did investigate the effect of high-efficiency particulate air (Hepa) filters on COVID in kindergartens. The researchers compared illness rates in schools that had new filters installed with those that did not.They found that there was no significant difference between the two. Indeed, infection rates were slightly higher in children in those schools that had the filters installed.

CDC announces foodborne illness outbreaks linked to fruit - Today the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) announced a death in an ongoing Listeria outbreak linked to peaches, plums, and nectarines, following an announcement of a Salmonella outbreak that has sickened at least 43 people in 15 states, all linked to cantaloupes and fruit medleys that contain cantaloupe cubes.So far at least 11 people in seven states have been sickened with Listeria monocytogenes, which can cause severe and fatal infections in young children, the elderly, and pregnant women.One person has died, and ten people have been hospitalized. In addition, one person got sick during her pregnancy and had a preterm labor, the CDC said. Illness onsets range from August 2018 to August 2023.Three people each in Florida and California have been sickened in the outbreak, with single cases reported in Colorado, Kansas, Michigan, Illinois, and Ohio. "The true number of sick people in this outbreak is likely higher than the number reported, and the outbreak may not be limited to the states with known illnesses," the CDC said.Late last week the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) announced that HMC Farms is voluntarily recalling peaches, plums and nectarines sold in stores between May 1 and November 15, 2022, and between May 1 and November 15, 2023."Although the recalled fruit is no longer available in retail stores, consumers may have frozen the recalled fruit at home for later use. Consumers are urged to check their freezers for the recalled fruit, not consume it, and discard it," the FDA said in a notice.In the 43-case Salmonella outbreak, recalled fruit has been identified as Trufresh whole cantaloupes with a sticker stating "Malichita," "4050," and "Product of Mexico/produit du Mexique;" Vineyard brand pre-cut fruit sold in Oklahoma stores from October 30 to November 10, 2023; and whole cantaloupes, cantaloupe chunks in clamshell packaging, and pineapple spears in clamshell packaging sold in Aldi stores in Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kentucky, Michigan, and Wisconsin from October 27 to October 31, 2023.So far no one has died in the outbreak, but 17 people have been hospitalized from complications.Arizona has the most cases so far, with 7, followed by Missouri and Minnesota with 5 cases. Nebraska, Wisconsin, and Illinois each have 4 cases, and Kentucky and Texas each have 3 cases.In epidemiologic interviews, 15 of 29 people reported eating cantaloupe in the 2 weeks prior to illness onset.The median age of those sickened in the outbreak is 62 years, and illnesses started on dates ranging from October 17, 2023, to November 6, 2023.As with the Listeria outbreak, the CDC said the Salmonella outbreak is likely much larger than reported.

Nationwide recall of peaches, plums and nectarines linked to deadly listeria outbreak - Peaches, plums and nectarines distributed by HMC Farms and sold nationwide as recently as last week are being recalled due to an outbreak of listeria that has resulted in 11 illnesses, including one death and 10 hospitalizations, federal safety regulators said Monday. "Investigators are working to determine if any additional fruit or products made with this fruit may be contaminated," the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention stated in a food safetyalert. Kingsburg, California-based HMC Farms is recalling peaches, plums and nectarines sold between May 1 and November 15 of this year as well as as during the same period in 2022, the company said in a notice posted Friday by the Food and Drug Administration. The FDA found listeria in testing a sample of HMC Farms peaches in late October, the CDC said. Sold around the U.S. by retailers including Walmart and Sam's Clubs, the recalled fruit may be contaminated with listeria monocytogenes, an organism that can cause serious and at times fatal infections. As of Nov. 17, the people sickened in the listeria outbreak reside in seven states: California, Colorado, Florida, Illinois, Kansas, Michigan and Ohio, according to the CDC. One person died in California and another became sick while pregnant and had preterm labor, the agency noted. Listeria infections can cause serious, and sometimes fatal, illness in young children, frail or elderly people, as well as others with weakened immune systems, according to the CDC. Healthy people may experience symptoms including high fever, severe headache and stomach pain. The organism can also cause miscarriages and stillbirths.

Listeria outbreak causes recall of fruit sold by Walmart, Publix, Albertsons, others --A listeria outbreak that’s reached seven states — Florida and California leading in cases — and caused one death spurred a recall of over 10 months of fruit sold by some of the nation’s largest grocers.HMC Farms’ recall likely comes too late to do anything about peaches, plums and nectarines sold from May 1, 2022, through Nov. 15, 2022, though those are included in the recall. The fruit sold this year from May 1 through Wednesday, however, might still be in freezers and refrigerators.HMC Farms recalled bags of whole plums, peaches and nectarines sold under its brand Signature Farms peaches and nectarines as well as and individual whole fruits.The individual fruit should have stickers with with 4044 and 4038 for yellow peaches; 4401 for white peaches; 4036 and 4378 for yellow nectarines; 3035 for white nectarines; and 4042 and 4040 for red plums. The Signature Farms peaches and nectarines were sold only by the Albertsons stores: Albertsons, Safeway, Vons, ACME, Balducci’s Food Lovers Market; Carrs; Eagle; Haggen; Kings Food Markets; Lucky; Pavilions; Shaw’s; and Star Market. Those stores were in California, New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Washington, Alaska, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, Idaho, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Dakota, Oregon, Rhode Island, South Dakota, Utah, Vermont, Virginia, Wyoming and Washington, D.C. The Albertsons stores also sold the HMC Farms brand. So did Walmart, which posted lists of Walmart stores (a 68-page PDF) and Sam’s Club stores touched by the recall. Publix also posted the recall on its website. Listeria is a foodborne illness that doesn’t hit very many in the United States (about 1,600 per year according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention) but has a relatively high mortality rate (about 260 or about 16.25%). Newborns, pregnant women, people over 65 years old and people with damaged immune systems are most likely to get the worst of listeria. It can cause miscarriages and stillbirths. Otherwise, common symptoms can feel like you’re getting the flu, along with fever, headache, stiffness, possible seizures, confusion and bad balance. The CDC says the current outbreak being investigated has sickened 11 people, 10 of which have been hospitalized and one of whom has died. That person was in California, which has three people with listeria in this outbreak as does Florida. The other five people are in Illinois, Michigan, Ohio, Kansas and Colorado. If you have any of the recalled fruit, throw it out or return it to the store for a refund.

Death, preterm labor reported in Listeria outbreak linked to recalled peaches, plums, nectarines | CNN — Eleven cases of Listeria infection have been reported in seven states in an outbreak linked with peaches, plums and nectarines, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said Monday. One person died, and a pregnant person who became ill went into early labor.Three cases were reported in both California and Florida, with other cases reported in Colorado, Kansas, Illinois, Michigan and Ohio. However, the CDC says the number of cases is probably higher because some people with Listeria infections get better without medical care, so their illnesses aren’t reported.Testing showed that HMC Farms peaches were contaminated with Listeria that’s closely related to the bacteria from some of those sickened in this outbreak. HMC Farms has recalled peaches, plums and nectarines sold in stores between May 1 and November 15 last year and this year. The stone fruit was sold individually and in 2-pound bags.The CDC advises anyone who has recalled fruit to throw it out and clean surfaces and containers that may have touched the fruit, including inside your refrigerator, since Listeria can survive there. Listeria is more likely to cause severe illness in people who are pregnant, who have weakened immune systems or who are 65 or older. Get medical care if you have symptoms of a Listeria infection such as fever, muscle aches, fatigue, headache, stiff neck, confusion, loss of balance or seizures. The CDC is also continuing its investigation into another recent illness-related fruit recall. At least 43 illnesses have been reported in a salmonella outbreak linked with whole and pre-cut cantaloupes. Trufresh, Vinyard and Aldi products are included in the recall.

Chlorine-based cleaner ineffective against C diff, study finds - A new study by researchers in the United Kingdom shows that a chlorine-based cleaner used on surfaces in UK hospitals is ineffective against Clostridioides difficile bacteria. The study, conducted by researchers at the University of Plymouth and published in the journal Microbiology,examined the effect of clinical concentrations of sodium hypochlorite disinfectant (NaOCL) on C difficilespores, which can survive on hospital surfaces for months. C difficile is the leading cause of healthcare-associated diarrhea, and causes an estimated 29,000 deaths in the United States and 8,382 in Europe each year. While chlorine-releasing agents are used in the disinfection of fluid spills, blood, and feces in UK hospitals, recent studies have found signs of emerging sporicidal resistance.Three different strains of C difficile were exposed to NaOCL at concentrations of 1,000, 5,000, and 10,000 parts per million (PPM) for 10 minutes. Spore recovery was reduced for one of the strains, but examination of spores from all three strains showed no changes to the outer spore coat and no significant reduction in spore viability, indicating a tolerance to the disinfectant. The researchers then applied spores from the three C difficile strains onto patient gowns and surgical scrubs and treated them with NaOCL. Although fewer spores were recovered from the fabrics than the liquid, the investigators still found that the scrubs and gowns retained the spores, and that the spores still survived treatment with NaOCL when it was applied directly to the fabric. This indicates that scrubs and gowns could serve as vectors of C difficile transmission in hospitals.The study authors say the findings highlight an urgent need to review current C difficile disinfection guidelines.

Biden declares emergency over lead in water in US Virgin Islands - President Joe Biden declared an emergency over lead-in-water contamination in the U.S. Virgin Islands earlier this week after tests on St. Croix revealed levels more than 100 times the limits set by the Environmental Protection Agency—among the worst results a U.S. community has seen in decades. "On a personal level, it's been frightening and frustrating," said resident Frandelle Gerard, executive director of Crucian Heritage and Nature Tourism, Inc. Officials told residents to stop using their taps and began distributing vouchers for bottled water. Lead can have devastating effects on childhood development, behavior and IQ scores. But experts consulted by The Associated Press said the frightening results may be false because they came from testing that does not meet EPA standards. "The data should be thrown into the garbage," said Marc Edwards, a Virginia Tech lead and water expert who helped identify the lead problems in Flint, Michigan. If the information given to St. Croix residents turns out to be bad, it won't be the first time that's happened. Poor information often plagues communities, and they are often majority-Black communities, facing lead crises, leaving people unsure what to believe. In Flint, officials initially concealed high lead levels. When levels spiked in Newark, officials emphasized the safety of the city's reservoirs even though it is lead pipes—not the source—that are usually the problem. In Benton Harbor, Michigan, residents waited months for officials to confirm that filters truly work, relying on bottled water. On the Caribbean island of St. Croix, officials avoided some of those pitfalls and quickly told residents of the results. The governor declared an emergency. "This is not something that we shy away from talking about," said Andrew Smith, head of the Virgin Islands Water and Power Authority. Edwards does not believe the sky-high results reflect reality and said the problem is how the samples were collected. For lead testing, workers usually take water from a household faucet. But the samples that tested so high on St. Croix were collected from the meter. "When you (unscrew) it, you are literally ripping the leaded-brass apart and a chunk of leaded-brass gets in your sample," he said. It produces artificially high results.

Quick takes: H9N2 avian flu case, H5N1 on fur farms, more poultry outbreaks | CIDRAP

• Confirmed human case of avian influenza A(H9N2) in Sichuan Province China whose symptoms began on October 1, according to a weekly influenza update from the Hong Kong Centre for Health Protection. The report didn't note the patient's age. H9N2 infections are typically mild and are most commonly reported in children, especially those who have contact with poultry or their environments. China has reported five human H9N2 cases over the past 6 months. The virus is known to circulate in poultry in some Asian countries.
• The Finnish Food Agency added 14 more H5N1 avian flu detections at fur farms, all housing foxes, which comes on the heels of 10 detections reported last week, according to Avian Flu Diary, an infectious disease news blog. The country is conducting surveillance at all fur farms in the wake of outbreaks that began in July. Officials have now reported 56 outbreaks on fur farms. Detections of H5N1 in mammals, especially farmed ones, have raised concerns about the risk of mutations that would allow the virus to spread more easily to humans.
• The United States and Europe reported more highly pathogenic avian flu outbreaks in poultry, according to the latest official notifications. In the United States, the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS) reported more outbreaks in five states, including at a commercial duck breeding farm in California and three commercial turkey farms in South Dakota. Officials also reported outbreaks in backyard flocks in New Mexico, Florida, and Iowa. In Europe, notifications from the World Organization for Animal Health (WOAH) detailed H5N1 outbreaks at farms inCroatia and Hungary, as well as a detection in wild birds in Germany.

OR veterinary specialists work to identify respiratory disease among dogs — An unusual respiratory illness has sickened dogs in several states, and veterinarians are trying to determine what’s making the animals ill while encouraging owners to take basic precautions. Oregon, Colorado and New Hampshire are among the states that have seen cases of the illness, which has caused lasting respiratory disease and pneumonia and does not respond to antibiotics. Symptoms of respiratory illness in dogs include coughing, sneezing, nasal or eye discharge and lethargy. Some cases of the pneumonia can progress quickly, making dogs very sick within 24 to 36 hours. Do dogs need to wear jackets during the winter? The Oregon Department of Agriculture has documented more than 200 cases of the disease since mid-August. It has encouraged pet owners to contact their vet if their dog is sick and told state veterinarians to report cases as soon as possible. According to the department, the reported cases have fallen into three categories: chronic tracheobronchitis that lasts at least six weeks and isn’t easily treated with antibiotics; chronic pneumonia that also doesn’t respond well to antibiotics; and acute pneumonia that can severely affect canines in as little as 24 hours. The agency is working with state researchers and the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s National Veterinary Services Laboratory to find out what is causing the illnesses. “We’ve been undertaking a series of tests mostly looking for common sorts of expected bacterial and viral pathogens, but we’re also doing some testing for perhaps novel agents as well — novel viruses in particular,” said Kurt Williams, director of the Oregon Veterinary Diagnostic Laboratory. Williams said dogs have died, but without a clear way to define the disease or test for it, he said it’s hard to put a number on how many died from a severe form of the infection.

CWD detected in another Tennessee county --The Tennessee Wildlife Resources Agency (TWRA) today announced the first detection of chronic wasting disease (CWD) in Lewis County, which is located in the west central part of the state.The deer had been harvested by a hunter, and the TWRA said the detection will trigger changes in feeding and carcass transport regulations. Lewis County borders Wayne County, which is part of a CWD management zone. Lewis County also borders counties that are currently outside CWD management zones.Last year, the TWRA and its lab partners tested 20,762 samples for CWD, which yielded 813 positives. The TWRA has been conducting surveillance for CWD since 2002 and intensified its efforts in 2016 after CWD was found in neighboring Arkansas. The disease was identified in Tennessee for the first time in 2018. It has now been found in white-tail deer in 17 of Tennessee's 95 counties, though 2 are considered high-prevalence counties: Fayette and Hardeman.CWD is a fatal prion disease, similar to bovine spongiform encephalopathy ("mad cow" disease). CWD causes progressive neurologic symptoms in deer and other cervids, such as elk and moose, that are exposed to the prions through direct contact or through contaminated environments.No human cases have been reported, but health officials urge people to avoid eating meat from sick animals. and to take precautions when butchering the animals.

Canadian 'super pigs' threaten to invade and overwhelm US - "Super pigs," hybrids between European wild boars and domestic pigs, are headed south into the United States from Canada.In the late 1980s, wild boar were brought to Canada to diversify livestock and increase pork production. The boars procreated with domestic pigs, and the result was the rapidly reproducing super pig.Called the “most invasive large mammal on the planet,” the jumbo-sized pigs have multiplied by the thousands in the Saskatchewan wilderness and are headed across the border.Dr. Ryan Brook has studied feral swine for over a decade. He says the hybrid super pigs reap “the benefits of thick warm fur, long legs, big long nose with razor sharp tusks” from boars, along with a “large body size and very high reproductive output.” They are also "incredibly intelligent, highly adaptable, and difficult to eradicate."When the Canadian pork market collapsed in 2001, many pigs escaped captivity. At first, officials assumed that the winters would freeze them to death, but they adapted instead. By nestling under snow, the swine created “Pigloos.” They now occupy 700,000 square miles, larger than a tiny country.As the pigs head toward the northern U.S. border states, officials fear diseases they carry will spread, such as E. coli and salmonella.No solution is set to eradicate the invasive species. Large traps have had some success, while hunting has had only a 2%-3% success rate. However, it makes the pigs even more nocturnal and harder to find.

Exploding population of 'super hogs' could spill over to the US from Canada and cause 'an ecological train wreck' --Canada's exploding population of 'super pigs' could spill over into the US, and experts fear the migration will cause 'an ecological train wreck.'The feral hogs are crossbreeds that combine the survival skills of wild Eurasian boar with domestic swine's size and high fertility, making them 'the most invasive animal on the planet.'Wild pigs can devastate agriculture and spread diseases to hog farms, like African swine fever, which is deadly to both domestic and feral animals - it does not transmit to humans.Canadian researchers helping to solve the problem have documented at least 62,000 wild pig sightings, with one just 18 miles from Minnesota.Ruth Aschim, a PhD student at the University of Saskatchewan (USask), said: 'Wild pigs are ecological train wrecks. 'They are prolific breeders, making them a highly successful invasive species. 'Wild pigs can cause soil erosion, degrade water quality, destroy crops, and prey on small mammals, amphibians and birds.' Pigs are not native to North America but were brought from Europe in the late 1980s and early 1990s to diversify Canadian livestock production. Others were imported as 'penned games' for shooting. The hybrid wild pigs have rapidly multiplied and spread, making them Canada's most prolific invasive mammal. And they typically weigh between 120 and 250 pounds. The wild boars are roaming Alberta, Saskatchewan and Manitoba - and only eradication in Alberta is possible, researchers said, due to a sow having six piglets in a litter and raising two litters in a year. Ryan Brook, a professor at the University of Saskatchewan and one of Canada's leading authorities on the problem, said that 65 percent or more of a wild pig population could be killed yearly and will still increase. Canada's pig problem dates back to the 1980s when officials encouraged farmers to raise wild boar. When the market collapsed in 2001, some farmers took vengeance by cutting fences and letting the animals free into the wild. And while many believed the invasive species would eventually die off, the pigs adapted to be the ultimate survivors of Canadian winters. They can endure frigid temperatures and breed in any season, living in 'pigloos' burrowed into the snow. 'Nobody should be surprised when pigs start walking across that border if they haven't already,' Brook said. 'The question is: What will be done about it?'

'Forever contaminant' road salts pose an icy dilemma: Do we protect drivers or our fresh water? -- For decades, applying road salt has been regarded as a simple but vital tool in countering the dangers of slippery road conditions, but the downsides of its use are apparent with implications that extend beyond the cold months.Scientists have long known that the substance that has safeguarded us through the colder months poses a threat to aquatic life and drinking water quality. But now we are finding that this chemical also disrupts the delicate balance of oxygen and nutrients in our freshwater lakes and ponds.Road salt, commonly referred to as rock salt, is a mixture primarily composed ofsodium chloride (NaCl). It is used to de-ice roads and highways during winter to enhance safety by preventing the formation of ice and reducing slippery conditions. Road salt persists as an environmental contaminant due to its chemical stability and the cyclic nature of its dispersal.Introduced through activities like road de-icing, salts move from roads to surface water such as streams and lakes, groundwater, remaining indefinitely in the environment without significant degradation. The continual cycling and lack of substantial transformation underscore the long-term impact of sodium chloride as a "forever contaminant."With a growing awareness of its ecological repercussions, a critical dilemma emerges. Do we prioritize driver safety or marine ecosystem health?The detrimental effects of road salt on aquatic ecosystems and drinking water supplies have long been recognized. Its heavy application during winter months leads to a buildup of road salt ions in both soil and water bodies, altering their natural chemical composition.These elevated salt concentrations can harm freshwater organisms and vegetation, change soil structure, and, when seeping into groundwater, compromise the potable water supply of nearby communities.Recent research has shed light on a less conspicuous yet equally significant consequence of road salt usage: its contribution to oxygen depletion in lakes. The occurrence of very low oxygen concentrations, or hypoxia, in a lake is generally attributed to an excessive input of nutrients, especially that of phosphorus.Nutrient enrichment can trigger algal blooms that, in turn, lower the oxygen level in the lake's deeper waters. The continued expansion of hypoxic conditions deteriorates the lake's water quality and may ultimately cause the die-off of most aquatic life. This nutrient-driven process, known as eutrophication, is affecting the ecological health of a growing number of lakes around the world.

Blasts to clear World War II munitions could contaminate the ocean --- World War II concluded decades ago, but live mines lurking on the ocean floor still pose threats, potentially spewing unexpected geysers or releasing contaminants into the water. Experts conduct controlled explosions to clear underwater munitions, but concerns have arisen over the environmental impacts of these blasts.Now, results published in Environmental Science & Technology show that the contamination produced by detonation depends on the blast type, with weaker explosions leaving behind more potentially toxic residues.After World War II, according to research estimates, up to 385,000 metric tons of unexploded munitions—including 40,000 tons of chemical munitions—were dumped into the Baltic Sea. These discarded weapons remain dangerous: They have the potential to jet plumes of water and sediment upward, send shock waves through the ocean, and punch holes in ships' hulls.In addition, the mines' metal shells can corrode in seawater, leaking potentially toxic explosive compounds, such as TNT, into the environment over time. Technicians typically clear historic munitions with controlled explosions, but there is debate among scientists about whether weak or strong blasts are better.While smaller blasts minimize shock waves and physical damage, Edmund Maser and coworkers suspected that these weaker ones release more toxic residue than strong blasts. To test whether this is true, the team wanted to measure the explosive residues near underwater mines after controlled detonations of the two different intensities. Sediment contained up to 100 million times more TNT after the weaker explosion and only 250 times more TNT after the stronger blast. Similarly, the TNT levels in water after the weaker blast far exceeded those around the stronger one. The researchers say that the pollution released by the low-power blast meets or exceeds levels previously reported to be toxic to microalgae, sea urchins, and fish. Because of the potential threats to nearby marine life, the researchers encourage less invasive methods to remediate submerged World War II relics—like robotic techniques to open and remove abandoned mines' explosive contents—to prevent unwanted explosions and contamination.

Frustration as latest talks on global plastic treaty close -- The latest negotiations toward a global plastic treaty concluded late Sunday with disagreement about how the pact should work and frustration from environment groups over delays and lack of progress. Negotiators spent a week at the UN Environment Programme (UNEP) headquarters in Nairobi haggling over a draft treaty to tackle the growing problem of plastic pollution found everywhere from ocean depths to mountaintops to human blood. It is the third time negotiators have met since 175 nations pledged early last year to fast-track talks in the hope of finalizing a treaty by 2024. The meeting in Nairobi was supposed to advance the process by fine-tuning the draft treaty and starting discussions about what concrete measures should target pollution from plastic, which is made from fossil fuels. But the treaty specifics were never really addressed, with a small number of oil-producing nations -– particularly Iran, Saudi Arabia and Russia –- accused of employing stalling tactics seen at previous negotiation rounds to hinder progress. "Unsurprisingly, certain countries are blocking progress on every term, playing obstruction and procedural maneuvers," Carroll Muffett from the Center for International Environmental Law told AFP. In closed-door meetings, so many new proposals were put forward that the text—instead of being revised and streamlined—ballooned in size over the course of the week, according to observers following the talks. Graham Forbes from Greenpeace said the meeting had "failed" its objectives and urged governments to take a harder line in future negotiations on nations not acting in good faith. "A successful treaty is still within reach but it will require a level of leadership and courage from big, more ambitious countries that we simply have not seen yet," he told AFP.

Fossil fuel industry keys in on unproven recycling methods to prop up plastics - The third Intergovernmental Negotiating Committee meeting (INC-3) in Nairobi, Kenya — part of a process legally bound to secure an international agreement on plastics by 2024, began with high hopes and soaring rhetoric, with President William Ruto of Kenya — a country that has banned a wide array of single-use plastics — calling on negotiators to be “the first domino” in the “inevitable” change toward a world of greatly reduced plastic use. Instead, negotiations ended in deadlock and confusion, as countries including Saudi Arabia and China joined trade groups such as the American Chemistry Council to fight the idea of in any way limiting the production of plastics. More than 140 registered fossil fuel and plastics lobbyists attended, many attached to six national delegations — making them by far the largest bloc at the conference. The army of fossil fuel and petrochemical representatives also outnumbered independent scientists 4 to 1 and outnumbered the collective delegations of the 70 smallest countries put together. They entered a conference that had on its agenda the possible “phaseout” of particularly damaging and replaceable plastics — and proceeded to argue that no such thing was necessary. Instead, the petrochemical groups are holding out the hope of a “circular economy” in which waste plastic is indefinitely reused to form new plastic products. Their weapons in this campaign: innocuous-sounding phrases like “national priorities,” “national circumstances,” the push for “a bottom-up approach” and a plea for “technological innovation.”All of this, anti-plastics campaigners argued, sought to water down the original goal of the treaty, which was a binding and solid agreement that would meaningfully reduce the amount of plastics entering the environment.That number is staggering: the equivalent of 2,000 dump trucks per day poured into the world’s lakes, rivers and oceans. One landmark 2017 study in Science found that 8.3 million tons of plastics had been produced to date, virtually all of which was still in landfills or the environment — and which was still dwarfed by the 12 million tons of plastic that study authors said would be in landfills or the environment by 2050 if nothing changed.That profusion of plastic is an issue “of deep concern,” wrote a confederation of 60 U.N. member states calling itself the High Ambition Coalition to End Plastic Pollution.

Myths about plastic pollution are leading to public confusion: Here's why --Does the prediction that there could be "more plastic than fish in the ocean by 2050" concern you? How about reports that "we eat a credit card's worth of plastic per week"? These are some of the "facts" about plastic that are cited by the media.They are certainly compelling sound bites and help to focus public and policy attention on the pressing topic of plastic pollution, but their scientific basis is far from robust.The scientists whose findings were used to support the "more plastic than fish" claimrefuted this. But one scientist who worked on the original source the estimation is based on has now updated his figures. The claim is further undermined by the assumptions the calculation is based on and an underestimate of fish stocks.Research has also found that humans ingest less than a grain of salt of microplastics each week. This means that it would take around 4,700 years to ingest an amount of plastic equivalent to the weight of a credit card.

Upcycled Wind Turbine Blades Become Park Benches, Planters – Bloomberg --At first glance, the benches outside the Great Lakes Science Center in downtown Cleveland seem unremarkable. But a closer inspection shows that their droplet-shaped shells aren’t made from wood or metal. A scan of the attached QR codes reveals even more: These benches used to be wind turbine blades.Painted by local artists and weighing in at about 500 pounds (230 kilograms) apiece, the benches were crafted by Rocky River, Ohio-based Canvus, which will install 10 more in the same location later this month. Altogether, the dozen benches reuse roughly a quarter of a single 150-foot (45-meter) wind turbine blade.

Where do plastic bag fees go? – Many state and local governments have implemented plastic bag fees at grocery stores in an effort to curb Americans’ plastic pollution. But where does all the money from those fees actually go? The answer differs across the various areas where fees have been put in place. Over 100 states and localities have passed legislation mandating a fee for carryout plastic bags, according to data from the Retail Industry Leaders Association.In general, these plastic bag fees or taxes have gone to existing funds in states or municipalities that pay for environmental clean-up or conservation efforts, according to a spokesperson for the Plastic Pollution Coalition, an advocacy group that works to stop plastic pollution. For example, most of Washington, D.C.’s 5-cent single-use plastic bag fee goes toward the cleanup of local waterways. In 2009, D.C. became the first city in the nation to pass legislation implementing single-use plastic bag and paper bag fees. Under the legislation, the business providing the plastic bags gets to keep one cent of the five-cent fee. If the business offers a rebate for customers who bring in their own bag, they can keep two cents, according to the city’s Department of Energy and Environment.Businesses are required to give the remaining money to the Office of Tax and Revenue, which is then put towards the Anacostia River Clean Up and Protection Fund by the city, a spokesperson for the Department of Energy and Environment confirmed. The Anacostia River, which runs from the city’s Maryland suburbs to downtown D.C., is home to 800,000 people and dozens of species of fish and birds. Both people and wildlife have been negatively impacted by the trash, sewage runoff, oil, metals and other pollution that has plagued the river for years, according to the Environmental Protection Agency.The water was so polluted that swimming in the river was banned for more than 50 years due to safety concerns. D.C. has collected millions of dollars since the fee was mandated. In fiscal year 2021 alone, the city collected more than $1,946,000 in bag fees from regulated businesses, according to a 2021 Bag Law annual summary report. Funds from single-use plastic bag fees are also frequently put toward plastic pollution education and the distribution of reusable bags to SNAP and WIC recipients, according to the Plastic Pollution Coalition spokesperson.

CSX train derails in Kentucky, spilling molten sulfur (Reuters) - A train derailment involving 16 cars, two of which spilled molten sulfur, sparked a fire north of Livingston, Kentucky, railroad operator CSX said on Wednesday, prompting officials to tell residents to evacuate. The cause of the derailment and the scale of the fire were not immediately clear, though ABC News said one crew member suffered minor injuries. "Local officials are encouraging those in the town of Livingston to evacuate," the office of Governor Andy Beshear said in a statement, urging families to stay clear of the area as authorities respond to the incident. A state of emergency has been declared in the state's Rockcastle county, Beshear said on social media platform X, formerly Twitter. "We will work together with local authorities to secure the area and safety is our top priority as we develop a recovery plan," CSX said on its website, adding that the burning of molten sulphur releases sulphur dioxide gas. Giving initial details of the incident, which took place at about 2:23 p.m., it said at least 16 cars were involved, two carrying molten sulphur that lost some of their contents, which then caught fire. Short-term exposure to colourless sulphur dioxide can harm the human respiratory system and make breathing difficult, the U.S. Environment Protection Agency (EPA) says on its website, putting at risk sufferers of asthma, particularly children. The incident blocked traffic in both directions along a stretch of U.S. Highway 25, and it was not immediately clear how soon the flow would resume

Small Kentucky town urged to evacuate after train derails, spilling chemicals — A train derailed and spilled molten sulfur in a remote part of eastern Kentucky on Wednesday, prompting officials to encourage residents of a small town to evacuate amid concerns about air quality.Gov. Andy Beshear said in a statement that local officials in Rockcastle County were encouraging residents of Livingston, with a population of about 200, to evacuate. News outlets reported that a shelter was opened at a local middle school.The derailment involving 16 cars happened around 2:30 p.m., according to Bryan Tucker, a spokesperson for railroad operator CSX. Two of the derailed cars were carrying molten sulfur, which caught fire after the cars were breached."Specialized equipment has been deployed to conduct air monitoring in the area as molten sulfur is known to release sulfur dioxide when it burns," CSX said Thursday in a statement. "Our immediate focus is on safely extinguishing the fire." The fire that started as a result of the derailment is 50% contained, NBC affiliate WLEX of Lexington, Kentucky, reported.Sulfur dioxide can cause respiratory problems, depending on the concentration and length of exposure, the Environmental Protection Agency website said on its website. The gas is commonly produced by burning fossil fuels at power plants and other industrial processes, the EPA says.Amounts of sulfur dioxide were above 5 parts per million in some areas near the spill, and above 2 parts per million in the city of Livingston, CSX officials said Thursday.According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, healthy adults experience airway resistance when sulfur dioxide reaches 5 parts per million, and respiratory protection is required for exposures at or above 20 parts per million.Officials told reporters Thursday that the evacuation order was advised because the fire from the derailment was causing a lot of smoke, which meant that people would be able to smell the sulfur dioxide in the air and experience symptoms as a result.

Kentucky residents cleared to return home after CSX train derailment - CSX announced Thursday afternoon that residents could return home after a chemical fire from a train derailment forced many to evacuate outside of Livingston, Ky., ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday.“The fire is completely out,” CSX spokesperson Bryan Tucker said in an email, The Associated Press reported. He added that officials reviewed the air monitoring data and decided it was “safe” to let the residents come home.The CSX train derailed, spilled chemicals and caught fire around 2:30 p.m. Wednesday near the remote town that has a population of about 200 people. The railroad company offered hotel rooms and Thanksgiving meals for those who were displaced, according to AP.The fire was likely due to the two cars that carried molten sulfur. Two other cars were carrying magnesium hydroxide, but CSX said in a statement they likely weren’t breached in the derailment. The other cars had non-hazardous materials.Short-term exposure to sulfur dioxide can harm the respiratory system, according to the Environmental Protection Agency.While Tucker said the air quality measurements indicated it was safe for residents to return to the area, the results of the tests have not been released.

Threat from sand and dust storms spreading: UN - The UN warned Wednesday that the number of sand and dust storms are increasing "dramatically" with Central Asia the most hit by the dangerous phenomenon. Toxic sand storms plague parts of desert and steppe covered Central Asia and North Africa and the UN called them a threat to life. The UN's Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD) is meeting for five days in the historic city of Samarkand, just under a week before the COP28 climate change summit opens in Dubai. "The sight of rolling dark clouds of sand and dust engulfing everything in their path and turning day into night is one of nature's most intimidating spectacles," said UNCCD Secretary Ibrahim Thiaw. "It is a costly phenomenon that wreaks havoc everywhere from Northern and Central Asia to sub-Saharan Africa." The agency said the storms impact areas far beyond their origin and that in some parts of the globe "desert dust doubled in the last century." "An estimated two billon tons of sand and dust now enters the atmosphere every year, an amount equal in weight to 360 Great Pyramids of Giza," it added. It said at least a quarter were attributable to human activity, but lamented that global recognition was low and data limited. The experts warned the storms can have "life threatening" effects, but governments lack the means to effectively combat them. "Fine dust particles are carried to high tropospheric levels (up to a few kilometers high) where winds can transport them over long distances," the statement said. Previously rare, such storms now start in spring and continue into the autumn in large parts of Central Asia.

Torrential rains in Brazil leave at least six dead - Flooding and landslides triggered by heavy rains in southern Brazil have claimed at least six lives over the past week, authorities said Sunday. The fatalities occurred in the states of Santa Catarina and Rio Grande do Sul, and major property damage in the latter was reported as thousands of people sheltered in gymnasiums, deputy governor Gabriel Souza said on X, the former Twitter. Several towns in Rio Grande do Sul were flooded when the Taquari River overflowed its banks. In one of them, Roca Sales, dozens of volunteers worked Sunday to clear streets blocked by a brown mess of mud and debris left by the river, an AFP journalist observed. Some streets were completely covered with mud, and trees were torn down. Southern Brazil has been hit hard in recent months by extreme weather events such as torrential rain and a cyclone in September that left more than 50 people dead. Experts say climate change is fueling many of these disasters. In Santa Catarina state, fatalities were also reported from heavy rains that began on Tuesday, and the governor declared a state of emergency in 64 towns. In the four hardest-hit cities, the rain that fell in three days was more than double what was expected for the entire month of November.

Guaíba River overflows in Porto Alegre’s center in third-highest flood since 1941, Brazil - The Guaíba River in Porto Alegre, Brazil, reached a historic water level of 3.01 m (9.8 feet) on the morning of November 20, 2023. This marked the third-highest flood level since 1941, following heavy rainfall across its contributing basins. The rising waters led to the river overflowing its banks at the Central Wharf, a rare occurrence in the city’s recent history. The river is expected to continue rising as the peak flow from the Taquari and Caí rivers arrives. The flooding of the Guaíba River and other rivers in Rio Grande do Sul poses a significant challenge to the region. The historical levels of these rivers, combined with adverse weather conditions, suggest that the situation may worsen before it improves. Efforts are ongoing to monitor and manage the flood situation, with a focus on ensuring the safety and well-being of the affected communities. On the morning of November 20, 2023, Porto Alegre witnessed a historic event as the Guaíba River overflowed at the Central Wharf, reaching a level of 3.01 m (9.8 feet). This significant rise in water level marked it as the third-highest flood since 1941, surpassed only by the floods of September 1967 and two in September 2023, which reached 3.13 m (10.2 feet) and 3.18 m (10.4 feet) respectively​​. The flooding in this area is a rare occurrence, considering that such high water levels at the Central Wharf have only been recorded a few times in the past 80 years. The Guaíba began to overflow at the Central Wharf, adjacent to the heart of Porto Alegre, shortly before 07:00 LT today. The situation was further compounded as the floodgates of the city’s flood containment system remained open while the river approached the transbordation mark​​. The flood situation in Porto Alegre is part of a broader crisis in the state of Rio Grande do Sul, with several rivers experiencing high water levels. Satellite images taken on November 19, 2023, revealed the extent of flooding across the state. Rivers such as the Caí and Taquari were at some of the highest levels recorded in history. The Taquari River reached 28.94 m (94.9 feet) at the Porto de Estrela, the fourth highest in 150 years and third highest in the last century. The Rio Caí also recorded significant levels, with 9.01 m (29.5 feet) in Montenegro, marking it as the second highest since 1940​​. Other rivers such as the Jacuí, Sinos, and Gravataí are also facing floods, with the Jacuí expected to rise further between Cachoeira do Sul and Porto Alegre. The Sinos River is anticipated to experience one of its most severe floods in recent history​​. Additionally, the Rio Uruguai is forecasted to rise significantly, with major flooding expected in São Borja, Itaqui, and Uruguaiana. This could lead to one of the largest floods of the Rio Uruguai in western Rio Grande do Sul in decades​​. The flooding in Porto Alegre and across Rio Grande do Sul is attributed to heavy rainfall in the basins feeding into the Guaíba. Accumulated rainfall in the last week in the Northern part of the state, where these river sources are located, has been substantial. For instance, Cambará do Sul recorded 333 mm (13.1 inches), Serafina Corrêa 328 mm (12.9 inches), and Porto Alegre 205 mm (8.07 inches)of rain​​. Moreover, the Guaíba River level is expected to continue rising as the peak flow from the Taquari and Caí rivers arrives. An additional concern is the wind pattern, which could potentially exacerbate the situation. Between Wednesday and Saturday, moderate to strong south winds are expected, which could raise the Guaíba River level by an additional 30 to 50 cm (1 – 1.6 feet).

At least 21 dead in torrential Dominican Republic rains - At least 21 people, including three children, died after heavy rainfall inundated the Dominican Republic over the weekend, authorities said Sunday, warning the downpours were linked to worsening climate change. Torrential storms over the past 48 hours have caused flooding, damaged infrastructure and brought down houses in the Caribbean nation, in what President Luis Abinader has called the "largest rainfall event ever" in the country's history. "Those who do not believe in climate change, start believing," said Abinader, who spoke of "extensive and substantial" damages, though without detailing precise figures. The rains, from a tropical depression, are expected to continue across portions of the country for the next 24 hours, the US embassy said in a weather alert. In one particularly deadly incident, a wall collapsed Sunday onto several vehicles traveling on a major avenue in the capital, Santo Domingo, killing nine. The water "infiltrated a saturated subsoil," and the foundation of the concrete wall gave way, the Ministry of Public Works said Sunday. An investigation into the incident has been ordered by the ministry. Nine other people died in separate instances in Santo Domingo on the same day. Others have died after being swept away by flood waters. Some 13,000 people have been evacuated across the country, according to the Emergency Operations Center, and a majority of the nation's 32 provinces are under an alert designation. Some areas are seeing electricity and drinking water outages. Classes have been suspended until Wednesday, Abinader said, "in order to evaluate the schools that may have been affected" and "guarantee the safety of our young people." Four of the dead are US nationals, and three are from neighboring Haiti. At the end of August, the passage of storm Franklin through the Dominican Republic left two dead and one missing, and forced the evacuation of some 3,000 people from areas in dangerous conditions.

Extensive flooding hits Democratic Republic of Congo, nearly 1 500 homes destroyed or damaged - The Democratic Republic of the Congo is grappling with a humanitarian crisis following extensive flooding caused by ongoing torrential rains since November 13, 2023. The most severe impacts have been recorded in the eastern and north-eastern regions, including Baraka City and Dungu Town, where thousands have been displaced, and homes have been destroyed. According to a recent report by the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (UN OCHA), in Baraka City alone, the floods have led to four fatalities and 20 injuries. Furthermore, the destruction of approximately 700 houses has left around 7 000 people without shelter. Meanwhile, in the Dungu Town area, the overflowing rivers have displaced about 4 300 people and damaged 720 houses. The loss of homes and livelihoods has plunged these communities into a state of emergency, requiring immediate attention and assistance. In response to the crisis, humanitarian partners have been mobilizing resources to provide relief to those most affected.

Severe storms hit Turkey, leaving 9 dead and 11 missing from sunken cargo ship - In the wake of destructive storms that hit northwestern Turkey on November 19, 2023, search efforts are underway for 11 missing crew members of the Kafkametler, a cargo ship that sunk off the Black Sea coast. The Interior Minister, Ali Yerlikaya, confirmed the recovery of one body from the ship, which was among several maritime and land emergencies caused by the severe weather. These incidents have led to at least nine fatalities, including deaths from flooding and structural damage in various parts of the country. Turkish rescue teams initiated a search operation for the 11 missing crew members of the cargo ship Kafkametler, which sank off the Black Sea coast near Eregli, Zonguldak province, on November 20. The Turkish-flagged ship, with 12 crew members aboard, encountered severe weather conditions about 200 km (120 miles) east of Istanbul. One body from the crew has been recovered thus far. Interior Minister Ali Yerlikaya reported that the ship’s captain had signaled distress on the morning of November 19, noting that the vessel was drifting towards a breakwater at Eregli. The search and rescue operations were delayed until Monday due to the adverse weather conditions. The storms also led to the grounding and subsequent break-up of another cargo ship, the Cameroon-flagged Pallada. All 13 crew members of the Pallada were rescued. Additionally, the severe weather necessitated the evacuation of a prison in Eregli, as informed by Justice Minister Yilmaz Tunc. The storms resulted in fatalities in different regions of Turkey. Four people were reported dead in Batman province, three in Zonguldak, and one in Diyarbakir, according to Yerlikaya. The storm system extended to neighboring Bulgaria, where two fatalities were reported. Officials declared a state of emergency in the Black Sea city of Varna due to the extreme weather conditions, which included gale-force winds and heavy rain and snow. Turkish authorities are continuing with the search for the missing Kafkametler crew members.

Alaska declares disaster in Wrangell following deadly landslide, U.S. - At approximately 21:00 local time on Monday, November 20, 2023, a destructive landslide, produced by intense rainfall, occurred roughly 18 km (11 miles) outside Wrangell, Alaska, on the Zimovia Highway. This event resulted in the deaths of at least three individuals, including a child, with three more reported missing. Active rescue efforts continue in the face of the landslide, which extended over approximately 152 meters (500 feet), destroying three homes and prompting urgent evacuations in the area. Following the landslide, Alaska State Troopers and local search teams launched a comprehensive rescue operation but concerns about the safety of the rescuers and the unstable conditions led to a temporary suspension of the search efforts. However, these efforts were soon resumed. On Tuesday, amidst the ongoing search, a woman was found alive and immediately transported to a hospital. The same day, two adult casualties were discovered by a drone operator and subsequently recovered from the debris. As of Tuesday night (local time), the focused search for two children and one adult remains underway, with teams, including canine units, combing through the debris, steadfast in their mission to find the missing. In response to the disaster’s scale, Alaska Governor Mike Dunleavy declared a state of emergency in Wrangell. The Department of Public Safety has advised against entering the slide area, emphasizing the ongoing risk of additional landslides. The Zimovia Highway has been closed from the 6-Mile marker onward, affecting local access and leaving the community beyond the landslide cut-off. There is currently no timeline for when these residents may return to their homes. The landslide also disrupted power supply, leaving approximately 75 homes without electricity between the 9 Mile marker and the end of Wrangell’s highway system. Wrangell Public Schools have been closed, but Evergreen Elementary School will offer support services.

Salerno witnesses up to 20 waterspouts in a day, with three making landfall, Italy - Up to 20 waterspouts formed off the coast of Salerno in Italy’s Campania Region on November 21, 2023, with at least three making a spectacular landfall. There were no reports of significant damage or casualties from this event. Waterspouts, akin to tornadoes over water, are typically formed by warm water temperatures and cooler air aloft. Despite their striking appearance, these waterspouts caused no significant damage or casualties, with local authorities closely monitoring the situation. The occurrence follows an extremely hot summer and an unusually warm autumn in southern Europe. As December nears, a sharp drop in temperatures is anticipated, marking the onset of meteorological winter. This shift is expected to bring more typical winter weather to the region, contrasting the previously warm conditions.

Intense winter storm brings heavy snow and freezing temperatures to the Plains and Rockies, U.S. - A significant winter storm is affecting the Rockies and Plains, bringing heavy snowfall and temperatures well below normal this holiday weekend. Forecasts predict snow accumulations of 10 – 15 cm (4 – 6 inches) in western Nebraska and central Kansas, and up to 30 – 45 cm (12 – 18 inches) in southwest Colorado. The system, which is also expected to impact the eastern states early next week, poses a severe travel risk due to gusty winds and heavy snow.A powerful winter storm is tracking across the Intermountain West into the central Plains, bringing a notable drop in temperatures and hazardous travel conditions. The storm’s path will impact areas from the eastern Great Basin through the central Rockies to the central High Plains. Western Nebraska and Kansas are preparing for snow accumulations of 10 – 15 cm (4 – 6 inches) on Friday and Saturday, November 24 and 25, 2023, with potential for higher amounts in some areas. Southwest Colorado is expected to receive significant snowfall, with estimates of 30 – 45 cm (12 – 18 inches).The storm’s impact is intensified by gusty winds, with snow rates reaching up to 2.5 cm (1 inch) per hour at times. This combination is expected to create particularly hazardous conditions for travelers in western and central Kansas this Saturday. Additionally, a wintry mix is forecast from the Texas Panhandle through northern Oklahoma into eastern Kansas and Missouri, resulting in light snow accumulations.Following a cold front, below-average temperatures are anticipated for much of the U.S. this weekend. The central Plains will experience some of the most extreme temperature drops, with highs forecasted at -6 to 1 °C (20s and 30s °F) and morning lows dropping to -9 to -7 °C (16 – 19 °F). Wind chills in these areas could reach and even drop below -18 °C (0 °F).The eastern U.S. will also face lower than average temperatures, with highs in the -6 to 1°C (20s and 30s °F) range for the Great Lakes and Interior Northeast. The Midwest, New England, and Mid-Atlantic states will see highs from 1 to 10°C (30s to 50s°F). The South, while warmer, will experience slightly below average temperatures.

World’s largest iceberg is on the move for first time in 37 years -The world’s largest iceberg has moved for the first time in 37 years after being grounded on the sea floor in Antartica since breaking off a glacier decades ago.The A23a is on a journey out of the Weddell Sea following its 1986 grounding, according to the British Antarctic Survey.A23a is more than twice the size of New York City, measuring around 1,500 square miles. It first calved, or broke off, from the Filchner Ice Shelf.The iceberg was dethroned as the largest in the world in 2021, losing the title briefly to the A76 iceberg after it broke off from the Ronne Ice Shelf in the Weddell Sea.But A76 has since broken up into separate pieces, handing the title back to A23a, among the world’s oldest icebergs as well. The largest iceberg ever recorded was the B-15, which broke off from its ice shelf in 2000 and measured more than 4,000 square miles before it began to melt.

Greenhouse Gas concentrations hit record high. Again. (WMO) - The abundance of heat-trapping greenhouse gases in the atmosphere once again reached a new record last year and there is no end in sight to the rising trend, according to a new report from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). Global averaged concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO2), the most important greenhouse gas, in 2022 were a full 50% above the pre-industrial era for the first time. They continued to grow in 2023. The rate of growth in CO2 concentrations was slightly lower than the previous year and the average for the decade, according to WMO’s Greenhouse Gas Bulletin. But it said this was most likely due to natural, short-term variations in the carbon cycle and that new emissions as a result of industrial activities continued to rise. Methane concentrations also grew, and levels of nitrous oxide, the third main gas, saw the highest year-on-year increase on record from 2021 to 2022, according to the Greenhouse Bulletin, which is published to inform the United Nations Climate Change negotiations, or COP28, in Dubai. “Despite decades of warnings from the scientific community, thousands of pages of reports and dozens of climate conferences, we are still heading in the wrong direction,” said WMO Secretary-General Prof. Petteri Taalas. “The current level of greenhouse gas concentrations puts us on the pathway of an increase in temperatures well above the Paris Agreement targets by the end of this century. This will be accompanied by more extreme weather, including intense heat and rainfall, ice melt, sea-level rise and ocean heat and acidification. The socioeconomic and environmental costs will soar.. We must reduce the consumption of fossil fuels as a matter of urgency.,” said Prof. Taalas. Just under half of CO2 emissions remain in the atmosphere. Just over one quarter are absorbed by the ocean and just under 30% by land ecosystems like forests – although there is considerable year-to-year variability in this. As long as emissions continue, CO2 will continue accumulating in the atmosphere leading to global temperature rise. Given the long life of CO2, the temperature level already observed will persist for several decades even if emissions are rapidly reduced to net zero. The last time the Earth experienced a comparable concentration of CO2 was 3-5 million years ago, when the temperature was 2-3°C warmer and sea level was 10-20 meters higher than now.

Trees May Absorb More CO2 to Help Mitigate Climate Crisis, New Modeling Suggests - Trees and other plants are known for their air purifying capabilities, providing oxygen to the millions of species on our planet. Planting more trees and preserving the ones we have has been one of the strategies being used to help mitigate the effects of the climate crisis.A new study using more realistic modeling suggests that plants may be capable of absorbing even more carbon dioxide produced by human activities than previously estimated.However, the researchers emphasized that their findings do not mean governments can slow down the reduction ofcarbon emissions in the fight against climate change, a press release from Trinity College Dublin said.Plants absorb carbon from the atmosphere and convert it into sugars used for metabolism and growth through the process of photosynthesis.“Plants take up a substantial amount of carbon dioxide (CO2) every year, thereby slowing down the detrimental effects of climate change, but the extent to which they will continue this CO2 uptake into the future has been uncertain,” said lead author of the study Dr. Jürgen Knauer of the Hawkesbury Institute for the Environment at Western Sydney University, according to the press release. “What we found is that a well-established climate model that is used to feed into global climate predictions made by the likes of the IPCC predicts stronger and sustained carbon uptake until the end of the 21st century when it accounts for the impact of some critical physiological processes that govern how plants conduct photosynthesis.”Scientists have historically been unclear on how the carbon uptake benefits provided by vegetation will respond to changes in temperatures, rainfall and carbon dioxide levels as the climate crisis progresses. For instance, more extreme heat and droughts might significantly weaken the capacity of terrestrial ecosystems to act as carbon sinks.“We accounted for aspects like how efficiently carbon dioxide can move through the interior of the leaf, how plants adjust to changes in temperatures, and how plants most economically distribute nutrients in their canopy. These are three really important mechanisms that affect a plant’s ability to ‘fix’ carbon, yet they are commonly ignored in most global models,” Knauer said.The study, “Higher global gross primary productivity under future climate with more advanced representations of photosynthesis,” was published in the journal Science Advances.

EU to Use Satellites to Track Climate-Induced Wildfires and Illegal Logging in Forests - The European Commission and the European Space Agency (ESA) have partnered to use satellites to address climate crisis threats and illegal logging in European Union (EU) forests. The commission has proposed a new law where the EU would use Copernicus Sentinel satellites to collect forest data in order to stay on top of threats like logging and wildfires exacerbated by climate change, reported Reuters.“As world leaders grapple with the urgency of climate action, the role of space-based technology and data has become increasingly critical,” a press release from the ESA said. “Access to actionable information is fundamental to fight climate change, to support knowledge-based policies and initiatives and their implementation, and to ensure that this is balanced with sustainable economic development and societal benefits.”EU member countries would also be required to measure on-the-ground trends, including the volume of trees and ancient forest locations. “We need to see the trends, need to predict better, we need to see how they are responding to climate change,” Virginijus Sinkevicius, EU Environment Commissioner, told Reuters. “At this moment there are no comprehensive monitoring requirements to provide an overall picture of the state of our forests.”According to Brussels, data provided by EU member states currently has long delays and gaps, which get in the way of the ability to prepare for climate threats.Extreme heat and drought in the EU have increased the risk of destructive wildfires. More than two million acres was lost to forest fires last year, according to government data, Reuters reported.Sinkevicius said the new satellite data will help keep track of illegal logging and other threats across borders.Europe’s forests are essential for storing carbon dioxide and helping to meet nations’ climate goals, as well as for flood protection.Last year, 43 percent of land affected by wildfires in Europe was in the network of Natura 2000 protected areas, which cover many habitats and threatened species, reported Euronews Green.EU forest protection group Fern said the new law was “a potentially golden opportunity,” but added that it should also require EU nations to take steps to boost the health of forests, Reuters reported.“Space, and in particular Earth observation, offers a unique perspective on how to tackle climate challenges faced by humanity,” said Kurt Vandenberghe, the European Commission’s director-general for climate action, in the press release. “Space technologies are crucial for reaching climate neutrality and climate resilience by 2050. Through our joint initiative, we are committed to exploring and enhancing opportunities for the development and broader implementation of space-based solutions dedicated to climate action.”

A glimpse of optimism on climate change -As leading experts on climate change, we often get asked if there’s hope for the planet — but it may surprise people that we find more cause for optimism than despair. We see an energy transition underway that isn’t getting nearly enough attention, and rising investments in adaptation that can make us more resilient to extreme weather. Even as the international community remains far from meeting its climate goals, recent progress shows that widespread change is possible and paves the way for broader action. While headlines about climate-amplified disasters have grown, U.S. greenhouse gas emissions dropped by 17 percent from 2005 to 2021 as the size of the economy doubled. Solar and wind costs have plummeted by 70 percent and 90 percent over the most recent decade and account for 80 percent of new electricity generating capacity this year. Domestic sales of electric vehicles are also surging, with over 1 million vehicles sold so far in 2023 — up 50 percent from 2022 and representing one in 10 new vehicles sold. These trends have supporting tailwinds of public policy in many states, and at the federal level, the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) aims to further lower costs of renewables, electric vehicles, heat pumps and other low-emissions technologies. Recent analysis suggests the IRA can nearly halve U.S. emissions by 2035 while reducing customer costs by as much as $370 per household each year. Falling clean energy costs and additional climate policies in the U.S. and elsewhere have helped to reduce the global warming we expect this century, from 3.5 degrees Celsius to 2.4 degrees, in part by making climate action more affordable worldwide. This reflects significant progress, even if countries are not yet on track to meet the Paris Agreement target of limiting warming to well below 2 degrees Celsius and falling short on national goals. None of this is to minimize the rising and observed impacts of climate change. We are increasingly experiencing the consequences of historical emissions, with climate change-fueled events unfolding more frequently and severely. This year has seen climate records not just broken but shattered — global surface temperatures, Antarctic sea ice loss, ocean temperatures, extreme flooding, heat waves and extensive wildfires, all with substantial adverse impacts for individuals, assets, ecosystems and institutions.

Earth likely passed key 2C warming point on two November days so far - The planet likely briefly exceeded a key warming threshold on Friday and Saturday for the first time since at least the beginning of instrument records, new data shows.The indication that Friday and Saturday were the first two days on record to have a global average surface temperature above 2°C when compared with preindustrial levels, emerged first from a dataset maintained by the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF)."Our best estimate is that this was the first day when global temperature was more than 2°C above 1850-1900 (or pre-industrial) levels, at 2.06°C," Samantha Burgess, the deputy director of the Copernicus Climate Change Service stated on X, formerly known as Twitter, on Sunday. She also noted the Saturday record in a post on Monday, stating: "Now two Nov 2023 days where global temperature exceeded 2°C in ERA5." When compared with the 1991-2020 average, Friday's global mean was a record-setting 1.17°C (2.1°F) above average. In a post on X on Monday, the ECMWF found that Friday was a bit warmer, at 2.07°C above preindustrial levels, while Saturday reached an anomaly of 2.06°C. A daily global average surface temperature climb to greater than 2°C above preindustrial levels indicates just how quickly the planet is warming, including some of the extremes that are now possible.Breaching the 2-degree threshold for two days does not mean that the Paris Agreement's target of holding global warming to "well below" such a mark has been exceeded.The agreement refers to the long-term average over two or more decades rather than one day, month or even year. The dataset that shows the record, known as ERA5, comes from a process known as reanalysis, in which a computer model uses surface temperature readings from land and ocean sources as well as algorithms to arrive in near time at an accurate global temperature reading for each day.The new record is considered provisional since it is subject to adjustment for accuracy. Subsequent information from other reanalysis sources and surface-based data sets and other reanalysis methods may confirm it or diverge slightly. News of the record is in keeping with the record-shattering year so far.

• This year is on track to be the hottest on record globally in all surface weather datasets and saw both the hottest month on record (September) but also the largest margin for any monthly record in history.
• Each month since May has set monthly global temperature records, and heat waves have scorched large parts of the globe, from the Southern U.S. to Africa, South America, China and Japan.
• Last summer, the global average surface temperature first rose into record territory and eclipsed the 1.5-degree Paris target. That caught some scientists off guard, and the failure of the planet to cool back down below all-time record territory has stood out.
• November, too, is now likely to be the hottest such month on record.

Global one-day temperature spikes above 2C for first time: EU monitor -The global average temperature on Friday was more than two degrees Celsius hotter than pre-industrial levels for the first time on record, Europe's Copernicus climate monitor said Monday, adding Saturday likely continued the unprecedented warming streak. Months of extraordinary heat are expected to make 2023 the hottest year in history, with droughts, massive wildfires and fierce storms ravaging swathes of the planet. According to new data, global temperatures on November 17 were 2.07C above the pre-industrial average, the EU's Climate Change Service (C3S). "This was the first day when global temperature was more than 2C above 1850-1900 levels," said Samantha Burgess, C3S Deputy Head on X, formerly known as Twitter. Preliminary data suggests the record continued into Saturday, with temperatures around 2.06C above the preindustrial average, Copernicus said on X. The climate monitor will confirm the figure by Tuesday. The 2015 Paris Agreement enshrined the goal of holding the increase in the global average temperature to "well below" 2C above pre-industrial levels and to aim for a safer 1.5C. If individual days go above 2C that does not mean that the Paris threshold has been breached—the deal instead refers to an average measured over decades. Climate experts have urged the world to aim for the lower limit to avoid major climate impacts, such as heat waves, super hurricanes and melting ice caps. They defined warming as "the increase in the 30-year global average" relative to the average from 1850 to 1900. The current climate is considered to have warmed by nearly 1.2C compared to that reference period. The first day to exceed the 2C target is part of a series of records this year: October was the warmest ever recorded globally, as was every month since June, according to Copernicus, which said that 2023 would with "near certainty" surpass the hottest year on record set in 2016. Beyond these official records, scientists say proxy data for the climate going back further—like tree rings or ice cores—suggests the temperatures seen this year could be unprecedented in human history, potentially the warmest in more than 100,000 years. October was some 1.7C warmer than an estimate of that month's average for the pre-industrial era, Copernicus said earlier this month. And global average temperatures since January have been the highest in records going back to 1940, the monitor added, registering 1.43C above the 1850-1900 pre-industrial average. The UN Environment Programme's annual Emissions Gap report on Monday said that in the year to early October there have been 86 days recorded with temperatures exceeding 1.5C above pre-industrial levels. While that does not mean the Paris Agreement threshold has been breached, UNEP warned that the records "signal that we are getting closer".

‘Five-Alarm Fire’ as Global Temps Breach 2°C Threshold -- Global temperatures surpassed 2°C above preindustrial levels for the first time Friday, according to preliminary data from the European Union's Copernicus Climate Change Service.The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts' ERA5 data set showed global surface air temperatures rising 2.07°C above the 1850-1900 average on Friday and 2.06°C above that average on Saturday, the service said."This is a five-alarm fire for humanity," the group Climate Defiance tweeted in response to the figures.In the 2015 Paris agreement, world leaders set out to keep warming to "well-below" 2°C above preindustrial levels. Allowing warming to breach that point increases several climate risks, according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC): 2°C of warming compared with 1.5°C would raise sea levels by an additional 0.1 meters by 2100, destroy 99% of coral reefs instead of 70% to 90%, and expose several hundred million more people to poverty and climate-related hazards by 2050.Friday's 2°C breach was first noted by Copernicus Climate Change Service deputy director Samantha Burgess on social media Sunday. She said the day was also 1.17°C above the 1991-2020 average, making it the warmest November 17 on record.Scientists were quick to point out that this doesn't mean global heating has breached the 2°C threshold long-term."The 1.5°C and 2°C warming thresholds have been defined in terms of the trend line," University of Pennsylvania climate scientist Michael Mann tweeted. "Not individual years, let alone months, weeks, or days (the shorter the time period, the larger the random fluctuations). Those who imply otherwise are misleading you." Richard Allan, professor of climate science at the University of Reading in the U.K., told CNN that it was "entirely expected that single days will surpass 2°C above preindustrial well before the actual 2°C target is breached over many years."

In September we went past 1.5 degrees. In November, we tipped over 2 degrees for the first time. What's going on? -- In September, the world passed 1.5°C of warming. Two months later, we hit 2°C of warming. It's fair to wonder what is going on.What we're seeing is not runaway climate change. These are daily spikes, not the long-term pattern we would need to say the world is now 2 degrees hotter than it was in the pre-industrial period.These first breaches of temperature limits are the loudest alarms yet. They come as the United Nations Environment Program warns the world is still on a path to a "hellish" 3°C of warming by the end of the century.But they do not signal our failure. The sudden spike in warming in 2023 comes from a combination of factors—climate change, a strong El Niño, sea ice failing to reform after winter, reduced aerosol pollution, and increased solar activity. There are also minor factors, such as the aftermath of the volcanic eruption near Tonga. Climate change is by far the biggest factor. What many of us don't recognize is how recent our intense period of emissions is. If you were born in 1983, fully 50% of all of humanity's emissions have gone into the atmosphere since your birth. Human emissions and other activities have so far contributed about 1.2°C of warming.Greenhouse gases trap heat, which is why the Earth is not a snowball. But the 2 trillion tons of fossil carbon we've taken from underground and put back in the atmosphere are trapping more heat. And more heat. And will continue to do so until we stop burning fossil fuels for heat or power.The El Niño-Southern Oscillation climate cycle in the Pacific has the biggest natural influence on climate. That's because the Pacific is huge, accounting for 30% of Earth's surface. When in the El Niño phase, the seas off South America heat up. This, in turn, usually makes average global temperatures hotter.Right now, there's a dangerous heat wave in Brazil, where heat and humidity combined makes it feel like 60°C. The intense heat contributed to the death of a fan at Taylor Swift's Rio concert last week. El Niño will likely peak in the next two months. But its effects may well persist throughout 2024, driving global average temperatures higher by perhaps 0.15°C. The declines in Arctic sea ice are well known. But now Antarctic sea ice, too, is failing to recover. Normally, the ring of frozen seawater around the ice continent reaches its maximum extent in September. But this year's maximum is well below any previous year.As we enter summer, that means more dark water will be exposed. And since dark surfaces absorb more heat while white ones reflect it, it means still more heat will go into the oceans rather than back out to space. Our sun runs on a roughly 11-year cycle, going between lower and higher output. The solar maximum was forecast for 2025, and a clear increase is occurring this year. This brings spectacular auroras—even in the Southern Hemisphere, where residents have seen auroras as far inland as Ballarat, in Victoria. Solar maximums add extra heat. But not much—the effect is only around 0.05°C, about a third of an El Niño. Normally, volcanic eruptions cool the planet, as their vast plumes of aerosols block sunlight. But the largest volcanic eruption this century near Tonga in January 2022 did the opposite. That's because the Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai volcano was under the sea. Its explosive force evaporated vast volumes of seawater—and water vapor is agreenhouse gas. While some skeptics like to point to this eruption as the root cause of our recent spike in warming, the Tonga eruption is a blip—it will add anestimated 0.035°C for about five years.

UN: World on track to double warming limit this century The world is on track to reach nearly 3 degrees Celsius of warming this century, double the United Nations’s threshold, even if developed nations meet their current emissions pledges,according to a report the U.N. issued Monday.In its annual Emissions Gap report, the U.N. Environment Program (UNEP) projected that by the end of the century, the world will warm by up to 2.9 degrees Celsius from preindustrial levels absent further action. UNEP estimated that fully implementing all of the Paris Climate Agreement’s unconditional nationally determined contributions (NDCs) would put the globe on track to warm by 2.9 degrees this century, while implementing the conditional NDCs would result in a 2.5-degree increase.The U.N. identified some progress on emissions. In 2015, the year of the Paris Climate Agreement, the world was on track to up greenhouse gas emissions by 16 percent by 2030. The new report indicates that figure is down to 3 percent.The report projects that to limit warming to the 1.5-degree threshold, greenhouse gas emissions must be cut by at least 42 percent by the end of the decade. Emissions must fall 28 percent to stay within the 2-degree limit of the Paris Agreement.“Present trends are racing our planet down a dead-end three-degree temperature rise. In short, the report shows that the emissions gap is more like an emissions canyon. A canyon littered with broken promises, broken lives, and broken records,” U.N. Secretary-GeneralAntonio Guterres said in a Monday press conference. ”All of this is a failure of leadership, a betrayal of the vulnerable, and a massive missed opportunity. Renewables have never been cheaper or more accessible.”The report comes as nations are set to convene in Dubai for the COP28 climate conference at the end of November. It also follows the warmest summer on record, followed by a similarly record-breaking September that climatologists say is likely to presage the warmest overall year on record.

'Emissions Canyon': World on Track for 2.9°C of Warming -- Nations' current unconditional climate action plans under the Paris agreement would put the world on track for 2.9°C of warming by 2100, the United Nations Environment Program warned Monday.. The UNEP's 2023 Emissions Gap Report, released ahead of next week's U.N. Climate Change Conference (COP28) in the United Arab Emirates, finds that policymakers must slash greenhouse gas emissions by 28% by 2030 to limit warming to 2°C above preindustrial levels and 42% to halt warming at 1.5°C."The report shows that the emissions gap is more like an emissions canyon," U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres said in a statement. "A canyon littered with broken promises, broken lives, and broken records. All of this is a failure of leadership, a betrayal of the vulnerable, and a massive missed opportunity."The annual Emissions Gap Report calculates the difference between climate-warming emissions under current policies and what needs to be achieved to limit global heating to "well below" 2°C and ideally 1.5°C. This year's report highlighted 2023's string of broken temperature records and extreme weather events: Scientists predict it's on track to be the hottest year in 125,000 years.At the same time, global greenhouse gas emissions rose by 1.2% between 2021 and 2022, hitting a record 57.4 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (GtCO2e) last year."Humanity is breaking all the wrong records when it comes to climate change," UNEP Executive Director Inger Andersen said in the report foreword."The 2023 edition of the Emissions Gap Report tells us that the world must change track, or we will be saying the same thing next year—and the year after, and the year after, like a broken record," Andersen added.Even the report's full title expressed a sense of exasperation: Emissions Gap Report 2023: Broken Record—Temperatures hit new highs, yet world fails to cut emissions (again). The report looked at both existing and promised policies, including countries' Paris action pledges, known as nationally determined contributions (NDCs). It did find that national actions since the Paris agreement was negotiated in 2015 have made a difference. At the time, greenhouse gas emissions were projected to rise by 16% by 2030 and now they are on track to rise by 3% by the end of the decade. But that progress is not nearly enough to avoid ever more extreme climate impacts. Currently implemented policies put the world on track for 3°C of warming by 2100, unconditional NDCs for 2.9°C, conditional NDCs for 2.5°C, and conditional NDCs combined with net-zero pledges give temperatures a 66% chance of topping out at 2°C. Under the last, most optimistic scenario, the world is left with a 14% chance of limiting warming to 1.5°C. However, net-zero pledges are not currently seen as reliable, since no Group of 20 country is on pace to reduce its emissions in line with this goal. "We know it is still possible to make the 1.5°C limit a reality. And we know how to get there—we have roadmaps from the International Energy Agency and the IPCC [Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change]," Guterres said. "It requires tearing out the poisoned root of the climate crisis: fossil fuels. And it demands a just, equitable renewables transition."

UN: The world is careening toward 3 degrees of warming -The landmark Paris climate agreement called for nations to keep global temperature increase to “well below” 2 degrees Celsius, with an aspiration of limiting it to 1.5 degrees C above the preindustrial average. The benchmarks are supposed to stave off some of the worst effects of climate change. But even if countries fulfill their decarbonization pledges in the coming decades, their emissions trajectories put those targets well out of reach,according to a new report from the United Nations Environment Programme. If countries fully implemented their plans to cut carbon emissions as currently promised under the Paris Agreement framework, the planet will still warm 2.9 degrees Celsius, or 5.2 degrees Fahrenheit. Assuming a world in which countries also meet their current goals to zero out net carbon emissions in the coming decades, temperatures will still increase about 2.5 degrees C, or 4.5 degrees F, according to the analysis. “Even in the most optimistic scenario considered in this report, the chance of limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius is only 14 percent, and the various scenarios leave open a large possibility that global warming exceeds 2 degrees Celsius or even 3 degrees Celsius,” the report noted. The analysis found that global emissions need to drop by more than a quarter to keep warming to 2 degrees C in the next seven years. To meet the more ambitious 1.5-degree target, emissions will need to fall by more than 40 percent by 2030. Those cuts should largely come from developed countries and high-income households, which are responsible for the bulk of emissions, the report noted. About 10 percent of individuals contribute to nearly half of all emissions globally. The emissions gap report is an annual assessment conducted by the United Nations Environment Programme and published in the lead-up to the United Nations climate conference, or COP, which is scheduled to begin at the end of this month in Dubai. It is the most robust analysis of where greenhouse gas emissions are headed under current policies — and where they need to be headed to limit warming. The emissions assessment emphasizes that the world is off track in its quest to accomplish the aims of that agreement. It supports a number of recent analyses suggesting that the 1.5-degree goal is increasingly out of reach.

Richest 1 percent generate as much carbon emissions as poorest two-thirds: Research - The richest 1 percent of the world’s population generates as much carbon emissions as the world’s poorest two-thirds, new research shows. “The richest 1 percent of the world’s population produced as much carbon pollution in 2019 than the five billion people who made up the poorest two-thirds of humanity,” the new report by Oxfam said. In 2019, the carbon emissions of the richest 1 percent made up 16 percent of the world’s total CO2 emissions, they found. The report found that the emissions from the 1 percent will cause an estimated 1.3 million heat-related deaths between 2020 and 2030. “The super-rich are plundering and polluting the planet to the point of destruction, leaving humanity choking on extreme heat, floods and drought,” Oxfam International interim Executive Director Amitabh Behar said in a statement. The report said that climate breakdown and inequality are locked in a vicious cycle, ultimately placing an undue burden on people in poverty. “Climate change is already worsening inequality both between and within countries,” the Oxfam report said. In its report, Oxfam called on governments to prioritize the well-being of humans “over endless profit,” work to reduce inequality as part of efforts to protect people from the climate effects, and “get off fossil fuels quickly and fairly.” The report was released ahead of the United Nations climate summit in Dubai, which has already stirred controversy. According to The Associated Press, a senior United Arab Emirates official said they want the climate summit to deliver “game-changing results” for efforts to curb climate change. But environmental activists have criticized the summit because the UAE, a major oil producer, is seen as defending Big Oil’s role in the event. The climate conference will be from Nov. 30 to Dec. 12 in Dubai.

200 Private Jet Owners Burned as Much CO2 as 40,000 Brits --The private jets of just 200 rich and famous individuals or groups released around 415,518 metric tons of climate-heating carbon dioxide between January 2022 and September 22, 2023, The Guardian revealedTuesday.That's equal to the emissions burned by nearly 40,000 British residents in all aspects of their lives, the newspaper calculated.The planes tracked by the outlet belong to c elebrities, billionaires, CEOs, and their families, among them the Murdoch family, Taylor Swift, and the Rolling Stones. All told, the high-flyers made a total of 44,739 trips during the study period for a combined 11 years in the air.Notable emitters included the Blavatnik family, the Murdoch family, and Eric Schmidt, whose flights during the 21-month study period released more than 7,500 metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent. The Sawiris family emitted around 7,500 metric tons, and Lorenzo Fertitta more than 5,000.The Rolling Stones' Boeing 767 wide-body aircraft released around 5,046 metric tons of carbon dioxide, which is equal to 1,763 economy flights from London to New York. The 39 jets owned by 30 Russian oligarchs released 30,701 metric tons of carbon dioxide.For comparison, average per capita emissions were 14.44 metric tons in the U.S. for 2022, 13.52 metric tons in Russia in 2021, and 5.2 metric tonsin the U.K. the same year.Taylor Swift was the only celebrity or billionaire in the report whose team responded to a request for comment."Before the tour kicked off in March of 2023, Taylor bought more than double the carbon credits needed to offset all tour travel," a spokesperson for the pop star told The Guardian.Swift appears to have responded to public pressure to reduce private jet use. Her plane averaged 19 flights a month between January and August 2022, when she received criticism after sustainability firm Yardnamed her the celebrity who used her plane the most. After that point, the plane's average monthly flights dropped to two.The report was released the day after an Oxfam study found that the world's richest 1% emitted the same amount as its poorest two-thirds. Given their high carbon footprint and luxury status, private jets have emerged as a rallying point for the climate justice movement."It's hugely unfair that rich people can wreck the climate this way, in just one flight polluting more than driving a car 23,000 kilometers," Greenpeace E.U. transport campaigner Thomas Gelin said in March. "Pollution for wasteful luxury has to be the first to go, we need a ban on private jets."

Twelve billionaires’ climate emissions outpollute 2.1m homes, analysis finds -Twelve of the world’s wealthiest billionaires produce more greenhouse gas emissions from their yachts, private jets, mansions and financial investments than the annual energy emissions of 2m homes, research shared exclusively with the Guardian reveals.The tycoons include the Amazon boss, Jeff Bezos, the Russian oligarch Roman Abramovich, the tech billionaires Bill Gates, Larry Page and Michael Dell, the inventor and social media company owner Elon Musk and the Mexican business magnate Carlos Slim.Analysis by Oxfam and US researchers of their luxury purchases, which include superyachts, private jets, cars, helicopters and palatial mansions, combined with the impact of their financial investments and shareholdings reveals that they account for almost 17m tonnes of CO₂ and equivalent greenhouse gas emissions annually.This is the same as the CO₂ and equivalent emissions from powering 2.1m homes or the emissions from 4.6 coal-fired power plants over a year, according to conversion data from the US Environmental Protection Agency.The true scale of the investment emissions of these individuals is not generally systematically calculated or reported. Oxfam analysts working with two US academics, Beatriz Barros and Richard Wilk, used publicly available data to calculate the greenhouse gas impacts.“Billionaires generate obscene amounts of carbon pollution with their yachts and private jets – but this is dwarfed by the pollution caused by their investments,” said Oxfam International’s inequality policy adviser Alex Maitland.“Through the corporations they own, billionaires emit a million times more carbon than the average person. They tend to favour investments in heavily polluting industries, like fossil fuels.“The world’s poorest communities, those who have done the least to cause climate change – those who are least able to respond and recover – are the ones who are suffering the worst consequences. This is unfair and immoral.”The lifestyle emissions were estimated by examining the carbon footprint of the billionaires’ purchases, such as the $500m superyacht that Oceanco built recently for Bezos.The yacht, which is 127 metres (417ft) long and took three years to build, boasts the title of the largest sailing vessel in the world. Its carbon emissions are at a minimum about 7,154 tonnes a year, according to the analysis by Wilk and Barros.The superyachts owned by the likes of Bezos, Abramovich, the former Google tycoons Page and Eric Schmidt and by Bernard Arnault, the French tycoon at the helm of a jewellery and fashion empire, have carbon footprints that far exceed those of the private jets owned by 10 of the 12 billionaires.

Tax the rich before they kill us all, Carbon Upfront, Lloyd Alter A new OXFAM report finds that the richest 1% of the world’s population is responsible for as much carbon pollution as the poorest two-thirds of humanity.An Instagram post from a couple of years ago caused enough embarrassment it was taken down after 8.3 million views. It could have easily been on the cover of the new Oxfam report Climate Equality: A Planet for the 99%. It gets to the point of who are the worst violators. The report starts with a stern Greta Thunberg writing in the forward: “The richest 1% of the world’s population are responsible for as much carbon pollution as the people who make up the poorest two-thirds of humanity. They have stolen our planet’s resources to fuel their lavish lifestyles. A short trip on a private jet will produce more carbon than the average person emits all year. They are sacrificing us at the altar of their greed. This report reveals a perverse reality: those who have done the least to cause the climate crisis are the ones who are suffering the most. And those who have done the most will likely suffer the least.”In my previous writing, I did not worry much about the 1%, with their production of 16% of carbon emissions, as I was about the top 10%, who are responsible for fully 50% of the carbon emissions. I thought the private jets and yachts of the super-rich were ostentatious and emitted a lot of carbon, with some very rich yacht owners at 3,000 tonnes per year when the Canadian average is around 18.There weren’t that many of them- only 7,700 worldwide, with a total annual output of 1.7 gigatonnes of CO², while the top 10% pumped out 18.5 gigatonnes. But many average North Americans are in that 10% and can find it hard to cut their footprint significantly. It costs serious money to change to electric cars or heat pumps. Many live in places where it’s hard to get around without a car. But as the report notes . . .“Cutting emissions is easier the richer you are. The majority of carbon emissions of the super-rich come from luxury goods and services and from their investments, so they have far greater capacity to make the deep and immediate cuts we need to stay below 1.5°C. No one needs, for example, frequent air travel, private jets or yachts, multiple multimillion-dollar mansions or fleets of high-end gas-guzzling cars. With one call to their stockbroker, a billionaire investor can easily shift their money away from fossil fuels into green energy.” The rest of the commentary can be found at Lloyd Alter’s site, Carbon Upfront. It is a good read with more charts depicting the issues.

Oil and gas industry needs to let go of carbon capture as solution to climate change, IEA says -- The oil and gas industry needs to let go of the “illusion” that carbon capture technology is a solution to climate change and invest more in clean energy, the head of the International Energy Agency said Thursday.“The industry needs to commit to genuinely helping the world meet its energy needs and climate goals – which means letting go of the illusion that implausibly large amounts of carbon capture are the solution,” IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol said in a statement ahead of the United Nations Climate Change Conference in Dubai next week.The technology captures carbon dioxide from industrial operations before emissions enter the atmosphere and stores it underground.Oil and gas companies face a moment of truth over their role in the clean energy transition, Birol wrote in an IEA report reviewing the industry’s role in transitioning to an economy with net zero carbon emissions by 2050.Just 1% of global investment in clean energy has come from oil and gas companies, according to Birol. The industry needs to face the “uncomfortable truth” that a successful clean energy transition will require scaling back oil and gas operations, not expanding them, the IEA chief wrote.“So while all oil and gas producers needs to reduce emissions from their own operations, including methane leaks and flaring, our call to action is much wider,” Birol wrote.The industry would need to invest 50% of capital expenditures in clean energy projects by 2030 to meet the goal of limiting climate change to 1.5 degrees Celsius, according to the IEA report. About 2.5% of the industry’s capital spending went toward clean energy in 2022.One of the major pitfalls in the energy transition is excessive reliance on carbon capture, according to the report. Carbon capture is essential for achieving net zero emissions in some sectors, but it should not be used as a way to retain the status quo, according to the IEA.An “inconceivable” 32 billion tons of carbon would need to be captured for utilization or storage by 2050 to limit climate change to 1.5 degrees Celsius under current projections for oil and gas consumption, according to the IEA.The necessary technology would require 26,000 terawatt hours of electricity to operate in 2050, more than total global demand in 2022, according to the IEA.It would also require $3.5 trillion in annual investment from today through mid-century, which equivalent to the entire oil and gas industry’s annual revenue in recent years, according to the report.U.S. oil major such as Exxon Mobil and Chevron are investing billions in carbon capture technology and hydrogen, while European majors Shell and BP have focused more on renewables such as solar and wind.Exxon and Chevron are also doubling down on fossil fuels through mega deals. Exxon is buying Pioneer Resources for nearly $60 billion, while Chevron is purchasing Hess for $53 billion.

Here’s how many fossil fuel lobbyists have attended U.N. climate talks - The industry has increased its presence at the negotiations over the past two decades, according to new research by advocacy groups Representatives of the fossil fuel industry have attended U.N. climate talks at least 7,200 times over the past two decades, according to research released Tuesday by a coalition of advocacy groups.The analysis underscores how the fossil fuel industry has increased its presence at summits focused on a climate crisis it helped create. It comes less than two weeks before the United Arab Emirates, a major oil producer, is set to host the next summit, with the head of its state-owned oil company serving as president of the Dubai gathering.Many oil and gas companies argue that they need to participate in these talks if they are to help develop solutions to climate change, pointing to their investments in clean energy. But climate activists and some Democrats say fossil fuel firms have had too much influence at these annual U.N. summits, known as the Conference of the Parties, or COPs, and have stood in the way of solutions.“Corporate presence at COPs has been a long-standing problem,” Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse (D-R.I.), one of the most vocal climate advocates on Capitol Hill, said in an interview. “I do think that both the leadership of this COP and the attendance of so many fossil fuel interests and front groups will diminish this COP’s success.”The Kick Big Polluters Out coalition conducted the analysis by combing through the official list of delegates, which includes attendees from governments, U.N. bodies, intergovernmental organizations and the media. The authors classified delegates as fossil fuel industry representatives if they listed an affiliation or membership with a fossil fuel company or trade association.Among major oil and gas firms, Shell sent the most staff to the talks, securing at least 115 passes from the U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change since 2003, according to the analysis. Shell’s chief climate change adviser, David Hone, previously bragged that the oil giant helped write the 2015 Paris climate accord.

Biden's climate and tribal goals conflict on California's coast - — The Biden administration is racing against the electoral clock to get a first-of-its-kind marine sanctuary certified in case Donald Trump or another Republican takes the White House and ditches the conservation effort along California’s Central Coast.But President Joe Biden and fellow top Democrat Gov. Gavin Newsom face another obstacle of their own making — clashing commitments to both protect marine life and meet aggressive clean energy goals by installing floating wind turbines in federal waters.The Biden administration has proposed a marine sanctuary, backed by local indigenous tribes, that would stretch along more than 100 miles of the California coastline north of Los Angeles. Near its northern boundary sits a 400-square-mile zone that the administration has leased to offshore wind developers.California is counting on Central Coast offshore wind to power as many as 5 million homes by 2030 — which is also one-sixth of Biden’s U.S. offshore wind goal. The early stage complications show how Democrats’ clean energy goals face conflicting internal priorities as well as external threats like Republicans retaking the White House. How they balance competing interests here could serve as a model — of how to do it right or not — for other ocean projects that pit energy development against conservation.Wind developers say the sanctuary as proposed will imperil their projects.“This is a significant risk for Morro Bay leaseholders,” said Molly Croll, Pacific offshore wind director for the American Clean Power Association, which represents the three companies that have leases in the area, in an email.The 5,600-square-mile Chumash Heritage National Marine Sanctuary would be the first indigenous-nominated marine sanctuary in the federal network, according to the Biden administration. It would preserve biologically rich waters and submerged native burial sites in a space about the size of Connecticut.The area at the heart of the dispute is Morro Bay, one of the most sacred indigenous sites in the region and one of just two points where offshore developers can connect electric cables to the grid. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration in August proposed carving a lane through the sanctuary to allow companies to lay power lines along the seafloor.

CNBC's Climate Desk Melts Away - CNBC has 'dismantled its climate desk' and will no longer have staff dedicated to covering the topic - posing a potential blow to the Democrat party's various 'green' schemes, including their so-called Green New Deal."CNBC has dismantled its climate desk and will no longer have staff dedicated to covering climate change," wrote Bloomberg's Akshat Rathi, posting a link to now-former CNBC climate innovation and tech reporter's announcement on X, which reads:"Personal news, as they say: A layoff, heartbreak, and finding my truth wandering through the streets of Istanbul..."CNBC has dismantled its climate desk and will no longer have staff dedicated to covering climate change. https://t.co/XXoc3HgsSD Akshat Rathi (@AkshatRathi) November 21, 2023

Major eruption at Ulawun volcano triggers highest Alert Level, ash reaches 18.3 km (60 000 feet) a.s.l., P.N.G. - On Monday, November 20, 2023, at approximately 15:30 local time (06:30 UTC), Papua New Guinea’s Ulawun volcano erupted violently, sending volcanic ash as high as 15.2 km (50 000 feet) above sea level. The Aviation Color Code was raised to Red and the Alert Level to 4 (highest). Despite widespread rumors, no tsunami warnings have been issued for the surrounding regions, including Japan and Australia. The Geohazards Management Division of Papua New Guinea promptly responded by raising Ulawun’s volcanic Alert Level to the maximum stage of four. The Division also highlighted that the eruption is expected to continue for an indefinite period. The Aviation Color Code was raised to Red, with ash cloud height reported as high as 15 km (50 000 feet) at 06:30 UTC, moving west of the volcano. By 07:20 UTC, the plume was extending approximately 55 km (34 miles). The height of the plume to 15 km a.s.l. was based on IR temperatures of approximately -60 °C (-76 °F). At 14:20 UTC, Darwin VAAC said the volcanic plume continues moving W at a height of 15 km a.s.l. At the time, it was extending 518 km (322 miles) W of the volcano. The Aviation Color code remains Red. Despite initial concerns and media speculation, there is no tsunami warning in effect following the eruption. The Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) assessed the potential for a tsunami affecting Japanese coasts but has not issued any advisories or warnings. They noted no significant sea level changes at observation sites in and around Japan. Similarly, Geoscience Australia and the Pacific Tsunami Warning Center confirmed that there is no tsunami threat to Australian waters. However, JMA has advised coastal residents to remain cautious due to the unpredictability of delayed tsunami waves.

Clear evidence of uplift in Svartsengi, intense weather impacting seismic monitoring, Iceland - On November 21, 2023, the Icelandic Meteorological Office (IMO) reported a decrease in seismic activity in the Reykjanes Peninsula, with 165 earthquakes, all below magnitude 2, detected since midnight. This decline contrasts with the previous days’ average of 1 500 to 1 800 earthquakes per 24-hour period. However, experts suggest that the current severe weather conditions across Iceland could be impacting the system’s sensitivity to detect the smallest quakes, making it challenging to assess whether there is a genuine reduction in seismic activity. One of the most striking observations is the continued land uplift at Svartsengi. Satellite images and GPS data have shown that the land has been rising steadily, a trend that began following the fissure’s formation. The rate of uplift has remained nearly unchanged in the last 24 hours, indicating ongoing subterranean movements. This uplift is consistent with patterns observed when magma accumulates underground, causing the earth’s surface to rise. “The rapid, ongoing uplift close to Svartsengi is occurring in the same area where uplift was measured before the magma intrusion formed on November 10,” IMO said. “Geodetic models derived from satellite images show that the uplift in Svartsengi area is considerably faster than before.” “Generally, when a magma intrusion forms, subsidence occurs above the centreline of the intrusion, as seen in Grindavík, with signs of land uplift discernible adjacent to the intrusion. Crustal uplift in the Svartsengi region due to magma accumulating at depth has been measurable since the intrusion began to form on November 10. Initially, the uplift sign was influenced by the formation of the intrusion, but now the dominance of deep magma recharge is apparent. “The clear sign of crustal uplift in Svartsengi region does not change the likelihood of an eruption from the magma intrusion,” according to IMO. “This is assessed, amongst other things, on the fact that the Earth’s crust over the magma intrusion is much weaker than the crust over the uplift region close to Svartsengi.” As long as there is not significant seismicity in the Svartsengi region, there is not a high likelihood of an eruption at that location. Moreover, an eruption is still deemed more likely from the intrusion, particularly if there is a sudden, large inflow of magma into the intrusion. . In response to these developments, IMO has updated the hazard maps for the areas around Grindavík and Svartsengi. The revised maps, based on new satellite images and other data, have expanded the designated danger zones. These updates are crucial for the planning and response strategies of the Civil Protection and the Police in the Southern Peninsula Region.

Study links volcanic eruptions in 540s, 1450s, 1600s to global cooling events - A new study led by the University of St Andrews, in collaboration with international researchers, reveals that historical volcanic eruptions, particularly in high latitude regions, have caused significant yet transient global cooling effects. Published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, the research utilized sulfur isotopes from ice cores to trace the climatic impact of volcanic eruptions in the Northern Hemisphere, particularly during notably cold decades like the 540s, 1450s, and 1600s. The research, published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, focuses on how eruptions, especially those at high latitudes, have historically led to short-term global cooling. The team used a novel approach to understand these phenomena. By studying sulfur isotopes in ice cores extracted from Greenland and Antarctica, the researchers were able to trace the climatic effects of volcanic eruptions. These isotopes act as a fingerprint, revealing the fraction of sulfate that reached the stratosphere following volcanic events. One of the key findings of the study is the correlation between unusually cold decades and large volcanic eruptions. Notable periods such as the 540s, 1450s, and 1600s were marked by significant cooling, now linked to these eruptions. The volcanic sulfate particles, injected into the upper atmosphere, were responsible for reflecting incoming sunlight, thus reducing global temperatures. However, the origins of these eruptions and the precise amount of sulfate they released remained uncertain until this study. The research team’s analysis suggests that the amount of sulfate reaching the stratosphere from these high-latitude eruptions may have been about half of what was previously estimated. This finding indicates that summer temperatures in the Northern Hemisphere are highly sensitive to these volcanic events. Dr. Burke highlighted the broader implications of their findings, stating, “Our data show that when Earth’s climate gets altered, other parts of the climate system can kick in to strongly amplify this initial change.” She emphasized the particular vulnerability of high-latitude regions to these amplified climate changes, a concern given the rapid environmental transformations occurring in these areas today.

Study examines how massive 2022 eruption changed stratosphere chemistry and dynamics -- When the Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai volcano erupted on January 15, 2022 in the South Pacific, it produced a shock wave felt around the world and triggered tsunamis in Tonga, Fiji, New Zealand, Japan, Chile, Peru and the United States. It also changed the chemistry and dynamics of the stratosphere in the year following the eruption, leading to unprecedented losses in the ozone layer of up to 7% over large areas of the Southern Hemisphere, according to a recent study published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. Driving those atmospheric changes, according to the research, was the sheer amount of water vapor injected into the stratosphere by the undersea volcano. The location of the stratosphere is approximately 8–30 miles above Earth's surface and is where the protective ozone layer resides. "The Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai eruption was truly extraordinary in that it injected about 300 billion pounds of water into the normally dry stratosphere, which is just an absolutely incredible amount of water from a single event," "This eruption put us in uncharted territory," s "We've never seen, in the history of satellite records, this much water vapor injected into the atmosphere and our paper is the first that looks at the downstream consequences over broad regions of both hemispheres in the months following the eruption using satellite data and a global model." The Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai eruption was the largest explosion ever recorded in the atmosphere. The eruption hurled aerosols and gases deep into the stratosphere. Some material reached the lower mesosphere, more than 30 miles above the Earth's surface, altitudes never recorded from a volcanic eruption. Previous studies found that the eruption increased water vapor in the stratosphere by 10% worldwide, with even higher concentrations in some areas of the Southern Hemisphere. The team found that the injection of water vapor and sulfur dioxide (SO2) changed both the chemistry and the dynamics of the stratosphere. In terms of chemistry, the SO2 led to an increase in sulfate aerosols, which provided new surfaces for chemical reactions to occur. "Certain reactions that might not happen at all or only happen slowly can happen faster if there are aerosols available on which those reactions can take place," said Wilmouth. "The injection of SO2 from the volcano allowed sulfate aerosols to form and the presence of water vapor led to the additional production of sulfate aerosols." The increased sulfate aerosols and water vapor kicked off a chain of events in the complex atmospheric chemistry that led to widespread changes in the concentrations of a number of compounds, including ozone. The extra water vapor also had a cooling effect in the stratosphere, leading to a change in circulation, which drove decreases in ozone in the southern hemisphere and an increase of ozone over the tropics. The researchers found that the peak decrease in ozone occurred in October, nine months after the eruption.

Climate Group Warns World Must Not Fall for Hydrogen 'Hype' -- Amid preparations for COP28, the United Nations climate summit kicking off next week, a leading green group warned Tuesday that "hydrogen is big polluters' latest trick, and we can't afford to fall for it.""Hydrogen is being promoted as a 'clean' alternative to the fossil fuels used for domestic heating, transport, and heavy industry," explains the new Friend of the Earth International (FOEI) paper, Don't Fall for the Hydrogen Hype, put out ahead of the global clilmate talks. "But it's expensive to produce, inefficient, and far from a low-carbon solution. In fact, the majority of the global hydrogen supply is made from fossil fuels."An "energy carrier," hydrogen stores and transports energy produced from resources such as biomass, fossil fuels, and water—but FOEI says industry promises of hydrogen's potential should not be trusted."Hydrogen, just like the fossil fuels and other false climate solutions pushed by that same industry, further reinforces neocolonial patterns of extractivism and exploitation."The group's paper begins by debunking the hydrogen "rainbow." Citing the International Energy Agency, it states:Globally, more than 62% of hydrogen production is derived from fossil gas (known as grey hydrogen, blue hydrogen when coupled with carbon capture and storage, or turquoise hydrogen when produced from methane pyrolysis). About 21% comes from coal and lignite (black/brown hydrogen), 16% is produced as a byproduct at refineries, 0.5% derived from oil, whilst only 0.1% is produced via water electrolysis (green from renewable electricity, purple/pink from nuclear).While some groups support green hydrogen, critics including FOEI emphasize that along with being incredibly uncommon, it "demands huge amounts of cheap renewable electricity to function, rendering the process highly inefficient," and "requires vast amounts of water, an increasingly rare and precious resource that shouldn't be wasted.""Pushed by the same fossil industry that has caused—and continues to fuel—the climate crisis, hydrogen is yet another false solution, sold by the industry as a magical fix which allows business as usual to continue," the paper asserts. "Like other false solutions, it represents a dangerous distraction from the urgent, deep, real emission cuts that are needed to address the climate crisis."The FOEI paper points out that in addition to propping up polluters by "justifying more fossil gas, hydrogen conveniently allows the fossil industry to push another one of its lifelines: carbon capture and storage," an "unproven techno-fix" that global climate groups are alsowarning about in the lead-up to COP28 in the United Arab Emirates. "It is unsurprising that hydrogen, just like the fossil fuels and other false climate solutions pushed by that same industry, further reinforces neocolonial patterns of extractivism and exploitation," the publication continues, highlighting how the oil and gas sector "has shown time and again its disregard for communities and the environment, especially in the Global South." Yegeshni Moodley from Friends of the Earth South Africa/groundWork said in a statement that "in the Global South, 'green hydrogen' receives public money yet serves only private interests. As governments collude with corporations over mega-infrastructure projects, communities struggle to keep their ancestral lands and scant water resources intact." The paper notes that like other "false solutions" to the climate emergency—including geoengineering, offsets, and so-called nature-based solutions—on top of "disproportionate social and environmental costs, hydrogen also comes with a high financial cost." Already, some governments are pouring money into hydrogen. U.S. President Joe Biden last month announced a "historic investment" of up to $7 billion for seven hubs across the United States, the nation that has historically contributed the most to human-caused global heating. Meanwhile, in the European Union, "the gas lobby has succeeded in securing several pieces of legislation promoting hydrogen—including legislation that allows public funds to go to fossil gas infrastructure as long as it promises to be 'hydrogen ready' despite the fact that Europe already has more gas infrastructure than necessary," FOEI detailed.

How Solar Sales Bros Threaten the Green Energy Transition -- Ryan was scrolling on Instagram when he ran across a verified account he figured must be run by a celebrity; the young man in it showed off a new Lamborghini, a Florida penthouse, and videos of himself benching 225 pounds. He had gotten rich, he told followers, by selling solar panels. Curious, Ryan messaged the man, who claimed he could teach others his success; within 48 hours, Ryan was invited to Florida, to stay for free in one of the man’s apartments while he learned the art of solar sales. Within a few days, he was out knocking on doors, within a year he had made around $350,000. But something started to gnaw at Ryan as he knocked on doors in small Florida towns alongside other men from out of state, staying in free luxury Airbnbs while they sold rooftop solar. About 90% of what he was being taught to say was a lie. He wasn’t working in conjunction with the electric company. The loans the homeowners were taking out didn’t have low interest rates. The solar panels weren’t always being installed by professionals who knew what they were doing. Ryan, who was 23 at the time, eventually quit and moved home, but he says new people were coming in all the time. “It’s this whole sales bro culture on Instagram,” he says. “You can make so much money.” The U.S. needs to install 1,000 gigawatts of solar power by 2035 to be on track to decarbonize its electrical grid, and pushed by both a growing recognition of the urgency of fighting climate change and by well-publicized incentives in theInflation Reduction Act, not to mention rising costs of residential electricity, Americans are shelling out money for solar panels. The U.S. added 6.4 gigawatts of small-scale solar in 2022, the most ever in a single year, according to the Energy Information Association. But the job of convincing Americans to sign up for solar panels on their rooftops has, in many cases, been hijacked by people with little knowledge about how renewable energy works, and who are just trying to make as much money as possible while the rush is on. They are fanning out across the country, knocking on doors, calling phones, and pitching homeowners on the benefits of solar power, sometimes ignoring Do Not Call lists or No Soliciting signs. Many of these salespeople are using misleading tactics to sell homeowners on solar—tactics that they learn from self-proclaimed sales experts online—and because they are independent contractors who don’t work for a specific solar installer, they’re getting away with it. As a result, they’re making thousands of dollars per sale, and in some cases hundreds of thousands of dollars a year, often while targeting elderly and low-income consumers with their sales pitch.

The Greenest US State Is Deep-Red, Oil-Loving Texas - John Davis' deal with RES Americas to install seven wind turbines on his ranch in Concho County, Texas, was a boon for his family. "Everybody else struck oil. I struck wind," Davis told me. Deals like Davis' have made Texas — America's oil capital for more than a century — the top producer of renewable energy in the US. The state has long generated the most wind power and is second only to California as a solar-energy producer. While fossil fuel still reigns supreme in the state's energy mix, wind and solar account for a growing share of the total. As of October, wind and solar met between 25% and 41% of Texas' energy demand, depending on the month, according to data from the state's grid operator ERCOT. Add in nuclear power, which doesn't produce greenhouse-gas emissions, and green energy met upward of 50% of the state's demand in some months.The rapid rise of green energy in deep-red Texas couldn't come at a better time: The state's population is growing and the strain on the electrical grid is only getting more intense. But the boom has also triggered a Texas-size showdown: Gov. Greg Abbott and a group of his fellow Republicans in the state legislature launched a campaign to prop up fossil fuels and penalize renewables, arguing it would make the grid more reliable. Critics aren't convinced that subsidizing fossil fuels will solve the state's electricity crunch.The high-stakes battle for Texas' energy future is a microcosm of how tricky America's green transition is shaping up to be, especially when politics are involved. Slowing down renewable energy could cost Texas in the long term, both economically and socially. Billions of dollars of public and private investment are pouring into low-carbon industries. Meanwhile, the US is already losing billions to deadly climate-fueled disasters that scientists warn will get worse unless the world rapidly shifts away from fossil fuels. Yet there's still money and political points to be earned in oil and gas, indicating the fight is far from over. Given the current battles, it's a bit ironic that Texas' ability to become America's green-energy leader was the result of two Republican governors and the state's conservative, pro-business bent. The runway was laid more than two decades ago when then Gov. George W. Bush pushed through a plan to deregulate the state's energy market. Instead of letting utilities control all the generation and transmission of power, the law created a competitive market that allows customers to choose their power provider. The goal was to lower the cost of turning on the lights for households and businesses. The plan also included a target for Texas to produce 2,000 megawatts of power from renewable-energy sources by 2009. The plan was so successful that in 2005, Republican Gov. Rick Perry raised the target to 10,000 megawatts by 2025 — a threshold Texas quickly surpassed. An energy market that prioritized the cheapest supply, combined with a quick process to approve and build new transmission lines, proved to be a winning formula in a state with vast swaths of open land, wind, and sunshine. Last year, the stategenerated about 30% of its power from wind and solar.

Lithium Crash Deepens With Battery Metal Now Down 78% From Peak -The price of battery-grade lithium carbonate has crashed in the last 12 months. This downward pressure is attributed to oversupplied markets in Asia, primarily because the global adoption rate of electric vehicles has notably slowed amid high interest rates. Since November 2022, the average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate in China plunged from $84,500 per metric ton to $18,630, or about a 78% decline. According to forecasts from industry consultancy Benchmark Mineral Intelligence, the global lithium market won't rebalance and return to a deficit until 2028. General Motors, Honda, LG Energy Solution, and other auto and battery manufacturers have dialed back EV expansion plans in recent months, mainly because rising interest rates are curbing demand. This has created a global supply glut for the battery metal. BloombergNEF's Allan Ray Restauro said, "With lithium supply growing more next year, we are likely going to see prices falling further, adding, "On the demand side, some regional differences on EV sales have been dragging sentiment down around the industry."The world's second-largest lithium producer, Chilean miner SQM, recently blamed the plunge in lithium prices on excess inventory, especially in Asia. Plunging prices come as the 'green' energy bubble is melting down, with the world's largest offshore wind farm developer, Orsted A/S, abandoning US projects, and solar stocks crashing on sliding demand.

Lithium “Shortage” Bubble Implodes (Again), Price Collapsed 77% in a Year, as Demand and Production Both Surged by Wolf Richter • Who needs fundamentals when you have rampant speculation? And then you can make up a story that fits the speculative narrative, and everyone will jump in, and you’re off to the races. That’s what commodities are all about from time to time. They’re so much fun. The spot price of battery-grade lithium carbonate, trading in Shanghai and serving as a benchmark, dropped today to CNY 133,500 per tonne, down 77% from the peak a year ago, and below where it had been in 2017. It had spiked by 1,410% from CNY 39,500 per tonne in August 2020 to CNY 600,000 in November 2022, multiplying by 15 in about 27 months, WHOOSH. The narrative to support the speculative craze was, you guessed it, lithium shortage. But high prices brought lots of new production online. The best cure for high prices is high prices. And soon the new and improved narrative was that there was a lithium glut. And today roughly completes the first full year of a most spectacular collapse in prices. We already had a lithium bubble followed by an implosion a few years ago: The prior lithium bubble peaked in 2017, at CNY 175,000, and imploded over the next three years, with the price dropping 77% to CNY 39,500 by August 2020. Inevitably, when you have so much fun, something even more fun happens: A startup company, Stardust Power, announced on November 21 that it would go public – and you also guessed this – via merger with a SPAC. With the money it expects to raise in the SPAC merger, it will build its first lithium refinery. It already picked out a “shovel-ready” location near Tulsa, OK, to build the lithium refinery and then to supply the EV battery industry. This Stardust Power announcement comes after the stocks of EV SPACs and a bunch of other companies that had gone public via merger with a SPAC have totally collapsed and entered my pantheon of Imploded Stocks. So good luck. Obviously, there is a lot of demand for battery-grade lithium to go into the batteries for the global EV production boom, and thankfully, lithium is abundant around the world and in the US. In September, we were treated to this headline: “Lithium deposit found in US may be among world’s largest, study finds.” The area is in Nevada. But in the US, permitting issues, local opposition, legal challenges, and costs don’t exactly make starting up lithium production a cakewalk. Then there is the long-running Lithium Nevada’s $2.3 billion project, which, after overcoming a host of issues, including legal challenges from tribes, is now on schedule to begin production in late 2026 at what could be one of the largest lithium mines in the world. The big kahuna of the oil-and-gas industry, Exxon Mobil, announced earlier in November that it plans to produce lithium from briny water pumped up from about 10,000 feet in the Smackover Formation in Arkansas. Production is expected to start by 2027 and will eventually supply lithium for well over 1 million EVs per year, according to Reuters. It cited analysts at TD Cowen that estimated this would require Exxon Mobil to invest $2 billion. So that’s going to be good for the economy. Lithium production at the Salton Sea in California has been kicked around for years. The area has been dubbed Lithium Valley due to its lithium-rich geothermal activity. Three companies are now working on projects using a new technology of extraction that is still largely unproven at scale. Two of the three – BHE Renewables and EnergySource Minerals – own and operate geothermal powerplants in the area, and that’s a pretty good fit. So we’ll see. All kinds of lithium production projects are being worked on in the US and around the world. Currently, Australia, Chile, and China dominate lithium production. Australia alone accounts for nearly half the global production. The three combined account for about 90% of global production. Everyone is now trying to get in on it. Investors have smelled the money, and the billions are flowing.Investors smell the money, billions are flowing, even in the US, which could become major lithium producer.

Mediterranean SOx ECA, and heavy fuel oil ban in the Arctic | Hellenic Shipping News Worldwide --Two new MARPOL regulations dictating fuel properties are due to take effect in 2024 and 2025. This includes the Mediterranean Sea becoming an ECA for SOx in 2025, and the Arctic banning the use and carriage for use of HFO, which will take effect in 2024. As of 1 May 2025, the Mediterranean Sea will effectively become an Emission Control Area (ECA) for sulphur oxides (SOx) under MARPOL Annex VI Regulation 14. This implies that from then on when operating in the Mediterranean Sea, the sulphur content of the fuel used on board shall not exceed 0.10%, unless using an exhaust gas cleaning system (EGCS) ensuring an equivalent SOx emission level. This is believed to significantly reduce ambient levels of air pollution in the Mediterranean Sea and in the Mediterranean coastal states, providing benefits to human health and the environment.At present, the other SOx ECAs under MARPOL are the Baltic Sea, the North Sea, the North American and the United States Caribbean Sea ECAs. In the future, we may see the designation of other SOx ECAs as well. One candidate may be a North-East Atlantic Ocean ECA linking the existing ECAs in the Baltic Sea and North Sea with the Mediterranean ECA. From 1 July 2024, heavy fuel oil (HFO) may no longer be used or carried as domestic fuel in bunker tanks when in Arctic waters, with some exceptions:

• Ships engaged in securing the safety of ships, search and rescue operations, or dedicated to oil spill preparedness and response are exempted.
• Ships subject to Regulation 12A of MARPOL Annex I (oil fuel tank protection) or Regulation 1.2.1* of Part II-A of the Polar Code may use and carry HFO until 1 July 2029.
• when operating in domestic waters under the sovereignty or jurisdiction of their flag state may be temporarily waived until 1 July 2029.

HFO in this context implies fuel oil having a density at 15°C higher than 900 kg/m3 or a kinematic viscosity at 50°C higher than 180 mm2/s. It has been discussed whether to also include the pour point as an additional qualifier in the future, but this has not yet been concluded.The cleaning or flushing of bunker tanks or pipelines is not required after using HFO to prepare for operation within Arctic waters. HFO carried as cargo on tankers is not affected by this regulation. To stay compliant, it is important to ensure that sufficient fuel with the appropriate sulphur content is available and that proper fuel changeover procedures are in place and implemented before entering the Mediterranean Sea. For ships entering Artic waters, it is essential to ensure that any remaining HFO is disposed of before entering unless the ship is exempted.

FBI raided a regulator’s home. FirstEnergy said it bribed him with millions. Since then, silence - – It was almost 10 p.m. when Sam Randazzo, a long-respected utility lawyer, texted both the CEO and the top lobbyist of a Fortune 500 power company who had left his home earlier that night. The message broke down $4,333,333 in payments FirstEnergy would dole out to Randazzo over six years starting in 2019. “Total 4,333,333. Thanks for the visit. Good to see you both,” Randazzo said. Early the next morning after the house call, Charles “Chuck” Jones, then FirstEnergy’s CEO, responded to Randazzo. “We’re going to get this handled this year, paid in full, no discount,” Jones texted Randazzo on Dec. 19, 2018. “Don’t forget about us or hurricane Chuck may show up on your doorstep!” The texts detailed a $4.3 million payment that FirstEnergy has claimed was a bribe for Randazzo, whom Gov. Mike DeWine just weeks later would appoint as Ohio’s top cop over utility companies. Randazzo said it was a consulting payment. That 2018 visit set off a chain of events that culminated in what Randazzo described to a colleague as a guns-drawn, early morning FBI raid that occurred three years ago Thursday. Randazzo hasn’t been charged with any crime since then. As chairman of the Public Utilities Commission of Ohio, Randazzo reviewed requests from gas and electric companies seeking to levy new costs on customers. He would eventually lead a unanimous opinion letting FirstEnergy out of a rate review – opening its books to regulators, which they saw as problematic – that the company previously committed to. He was also instrumental in writing and defending legislation that charged ratepayers more than $1 billion over several years to bail out the company’s uneconomic nuclear plants in Northeast Ohio.Ohio’s former House speaker, a FirstEnergy Solutions lobbyist, a former state GOP chairman, and a political operative have all been convicted of engaging in a racketeering conspiracy revolving around a bribe from FirstEnergy in exchange for that legislation. In 2021, FirstEnergy entered a deferred prosecution agreement with the office of the U.S. Attorney for the Southern District of Ohio. The company agreed to pay a $230 million criminal penalty and said it bribed both Randazzo and ex-Ohio House Speaker Larry Householder. The Randazzo payment capped off the roughly $22 million it had paid him since 2013.Still, no charges have been filed against either the FirstEnergy executives or Randazzo, the second high-ranking public official the company said it bribed.Now, a clock is ticking. Prosecutors face a legal time limit of five years from the last act of the alleged conspiracy if they wish to charge Randazzo with racketeering, as they did with ex-Ohio House Speaker Larry Householder.While the full scope of their evidence is unknown, five years from some key acts put them on a rough deadline of somewhere between July and November of 2024, though different factors can extend the time frame.

Ohio Commission Decides to Allow Fracking in State Parks – EcoWatch - A government commission in Ohio has decided to open some state parks and wildlife areas to fracking. The decision comes amid an investigation on allegations of possible fraudulent support from an industry group representing energy companies, The Associated Press reported.The Ohio Department of Natural Resources Oil and Gas Land Management Commission (OGLMC) greenlit multiple fracking proposals on land owned by Ohio Department of Natural Resources and the Ohio Department of Transportation, according to a report by The Associated Press.The commissioners held a meeting to consider the applications, and many environmentalists showed up to protest. After one member of the audience threw play money on the ground in front of commissioners in protest, the commissioner chair Ryan Richardson responded, “I’m going to ask again that we can show respect to the commissioners,” Ideastream Public Media reported.The protestor responded, “Why should we show respect when you are not respecting us, and you’re giving away our land to profit-making oil and gas? Why should we sit here and let you do that?” Days before the decision, Ohio Senate Democrats sent a letter to OGLMC, asking them to decline the applications to frack in state parks.

Commission sells out parks and wildlife areas despite public outcry - Last Wednesday, despite vociferous public protest, the Ohio Oil and Gas Land Management Commission voted to approve nominations to lease Salt Fork State Park, Valley Run Wildlife Area, and Zepernick Wildlife Area to the oil and gas industry for fracking.They denied two nominations — one for all of Wolf Run State Park and one for part of Salt Fork — because more than one state agency manages the land sought, and those agencies had not been sufficiently consulted. However, those nominations can be revised to cut the land not managed by the Ohio Department of Natural Resources and resubmitted at a later date.We won’t sugarcoat this: It’s a loss not just for Save Ohio Parks, but for the land, water, air, wildlife, citizens, and democracy in Ohio. But it wasn’t for lack of trying.We launched what became the Save Ohio Parks campaign in January, just after the December lame duck session in which Ohio legislators stuffed HB 507, a bill about the sale of poultry chicks, with unrelated oil and gas amendments declaring methane gas to be “green” and mandating that state agencies allow fracking on public land.As the commission embarked on a rule-making process to establish a procedure for taking oil and gas industry applications to frack public land, and supposedly for taking public comments, we began holding meetings and trainings.Thirteen of us showed up to testify against fracking our state parks, wildlife areas, and public lands at a commission meeting in February, and 14 showed up in April. Only one person at each hearing testified in favor — yet the commission made whatever changes the oil and gas industry asked for while ignoring everything we said.Once the commission’s rules were in place — after another hearing in front of the Joint Committee for Agency Rule Review — oil and gas applications to frack our state parks began rolling in, and the public commenting period was open.From the end of May through October, over 4,000 comments were submitted through the Save Ohio Parks website and action alerts, along with hundreds of comments submitted independently by Ohio citizens, all opposed to fracking our state parks, wildlife areas, and public lands.We sent study after study to the commissioners showing that fracking harms our health, climate, and environment, but does not improve our economy — that in fact, preserving our parks and wildlife areas adds more to the state economy than fracking ever could.We looked into hundreds of pro-fracking comments and found at least 98 people who told us they never wrote the comments submitted in their name.You can find all the public comments posted on the commission website. We don’t know if they read any of it. But we do know they went on an oil and gas tour with the industry.Shortly before the November 15 meeting, we received photos of Encino trucks and equipment already setting up just outside Salt Fork State Park — so we had some idea of how the vote would go. But we were not going to let that happen without a fight.Up to 100 Ohioans drove in to Columbus from across the state to attend the Save Ohio Parks press conference and meeting of the Oil and Gas Land Management Commission — and we let the commissioners know what we think. See a photo album hereWe held up signs and banners, sang and chanted — and when the first vote to frack Salt Fork took place, a group from Climate Defiance took over the meeting with a large banner that said “Commissioners: No Fracking Our Ohio Public Lands.”At that point, the commissioners left the room for 15 minutes — then incredibly, came back and proceeded to sell out most of the rest of Salt Fork, along with Valley Run and Zepernick — all while dozens of Ohio citizens chanted and yelled from a few feet away. See video The next step in the commission process is to put the approved nominations up for bid — literally selling our public lands to the highest oil and gas bidder. That won’t happen until January, and then it will take some time to select the winner. There’s also the matter of the apparently fraudulent pro-fracking comments. Almost 150 people are on the record stating they did not submit the comments that bear their name in support of fracking Ohio’s state parks, wildlife areas, and public lands.Attorney General David Yost opened an investigation on September 11, but so far there have been no updates. At its September 18 meeting, Commission Chair Ryan Richardson said they would proceed with their decision-making regardless of the investigation.Meanwhile, the Save Ohio Parks steering committee is considering our next steps. We are looking into multiple options and will keep you updated as the fight against fracking our state parks and wildlife areas moves into its next phase.

Put an end to sacrilegious treatment of public lands – George Banzinger, Marietta Times - In its Nov. 16 edition, The Marietta Times carried a story with the headline, “Ohio commission approves fracking in state parks.” I attended this event at the headquarters of the Ohio Department of Natural Resources in Columbus, where this meeting of the Oil and Gas Land Management Commission was held. I shared in the disappointment, anger and frustration which was expressed by many members of the Save Ohio Parks group.There are many reasons that this plan to impose a sacrilege on our state parks and public lands is an outrage. First, the Ohio Legislature drew up a poultry bill, HB 507, and inserted some unrelated “stuffing” language offering public lands of Ohio–including state parks–for oil and gas drilling. The hidden language in this poultry bill allowed the legislature to avoid any public hearings about this controversial proposal to drill for fossil fuels. Adding to this reason for outrage — this legislation declared methane to be green!A second outrage is that Gov. Michael DeWine signed this legislation and appointed the members of the Oil and Gas Land Management Commission, who represent real estate, oil and gas interests, and lawyers but no true representatives of environmental interests. The commission then sent out information to oil and gas companies inviting “nominations” for parcels immediately adjacent to state parks and other public lands (in signing the bill the governor promised that there would be no surface drilling on public lands — we shall see if that is enforced). Another outrage is that the names of these companies which submitted nominations were not made public. It is likely that most all of these companies are from out of state, based on preliminary inquiries made to property owners on these sites. The public was invited to comment on these nominations, and more than 5,000 comments from those opposing high-pressure hydraulic fracturing (aka fracking) near these public lands were received by the commission. Comments referred to increased truck traffic (hauling in sand, water, and chemicals and hauling out radioactive and toxic brine waste), increased noise and air pollution, and risks to health and the environment, which has been documented in scientific studies. Yet another outrage occurred when over 1,100 comments from those in support of fracking on public lands came in from people whose identities had been stolen and who had no idea until they were contacted that a message in support of fracking on public lands was sent in their names and with their contact information. The latter information came out due to some investigative reporting by reporters from the Cleveland Plain Dealer and other press outlets. Attorney General David Yost promised to conduct an investigation of this issue, but at this point his office has not provided any update. Further exasperating opponents of fracking on public lands is that the commission on Nov. 15 went ahead and approved these nominations before any information about the attorney general’s investigation is made public (it is possible that one of the companies that submitted a nomination was behind this deceptive effort). A further cause for outrage, the commission prohibited any comments from the public at the Nov. 15 meeting.The next step in this process is that the commission will request bids for the various parcels.If bids come in as expected, Salt Fork State Park, the state’s largest, will be completely surrounded by well pads and oil and gas rigs. The last hope to set any limits or to stop this process is to contact the governor and urge him to do what his predecessor, then-Gov. John Kasich, did and end this sacrilege on our public lands.Riffe Center, 30th Floor, 77 South High Street, Columbus, OH 43215-6117. (614) 644-4357.

Utica Leasing Up in Columbiana County, Royalties Down – Energy companies doing business in Columbiana County have exhibited a strong appetite for new lease deals with property owners across the Utica/Point Pleasant shale formation over the last year, records show.It amounts to what is a post-COVID rush to expand or renew existing leaseholds across the county and other areas of the shale play, says attorney Alan Wenger, who oversees the oil and gas division of Harrington, Hoppe and Mitchell law firm in Youngstown.“It’s become evident in the aftermath of COVID,” Wenger says. Yet gone are the days when these leases commanded lucrative signing bonuses and promising royalty returns, Wenger says. Twelve years ago, major oil and gas companies – led by Chesapeake Energy Corp. – descended on eastern Ohio in a race to lock up acreage positions in what was then the unproven Utica/Point Pleasant. Some agreements at that time yielded bonuses of $6,000 an acre and royalties of 20% gross production of an oil and gas well.Today, many of those lease agreements that covered acreage where wells were not drilled have expired, and companies have returned to the table to re-sign property owners to new leases. Or, these energy companies have reached out to landowners whose acreage was not leased during the initial push.“They’re back, and people think the terms should be the same,” Wenger says. “It’s not happening. The days of $5,000 and $6,000 bonuses and 20% royalties don’t happen anymore.”Wenger says property owners no longer hold the leverage they used to, as the Ohio Department of Natural Resources and changes in state law have made it easier for oil and gas firms to combine property tracts for drilling purposes – a practice commonly known as unitization, or “forced pooling.” In Ohio, a unit consists of 640 contiguous surface acres.Wenger says that landowners who are designated as part of a well unit, but have refused to lease their land to an oil and gas company, today negotiate from a disadvantage. “In my experience, the ability of landowners to negotiate is compromised since the boom,” he says. Under Ohio law, a unit today requires that 65% of the landowners within the pool approve of developing a well. “It used to be about 90%. It used to be a roadblock,” Wenger says.

Northern Oil and Gas, Inc. Announces Bolt-On Acquisitions, Expands Northern Delaware Position and Enters Ohio Utica Shale in Appalachia -Northern Oil and Gas, Inc. announced two acquisition transactions. NORTHERN DELAWARE BASIN TRANSACTION: NOG has entered into a definitive agreement with a private party to acquire non-operated interests across 3,000 net acres located primarily in Lea and Eddy Counties, New Mexico. NOG owns existing interests in approximately 90% of the leasehold. Current production is 2,800 Boe per day (2-stream, 67% oil). NOG expects 2024 production to average 2,500 Boe per day (2-stream, 67% oil) but expects significant future growth on the assets, with average production of >3,500 Boe per day for 2025 through 2030. Capital expenditures on the assets are expected to be in the range of $25 - $30 million to be incurred in 2024, with similar expected levels annually through 2027. The acquired assets include 13.0 net producing wells, 1.0 net well in process and an estimated 26.3 net undeveloped locations, representing approximately 13.5 years of inventory at sustaining capital levels. The undeveloped assets are of extremely high quality, with an average pre-tax PV-10 breakeven of less than $45 per barrel. Mewbourne Oil is the largest operator, controlling approximately 80% of the assets. The effective date for the transaction is November 1, 2023. NOG has placed a $17.1 million deposit for the acquisition with the balance of the funding to occur at closing, which is expected in the first quarter of 2024, subject to the satisfaction of typical closing conditions. APPALACHIAN BASIN TRANSACTION: NOG has entered into a definitive agreement with a separate private party to acquire non-operated interests in Jefferson, Harrison, Belmont, and Monroe Counties, Ohio. The primary target zone is the Point Pleasant/Utica Shale. Current production is approximately 23 MMcfe per day (3,800 Boe per day, 100% gas) and NOG expects average production in 2024 at slightly higher levels. NOG expects to incur approximately $14 million of capital expenditures on the assets in 2023 (which may be included in whole, or in part, as a portion of the initial closing settlement, depending on timing), and $8 million of capital expenditures in 2024. The acquired properties include approximately 0.8 net producing wells and 1.7 net wells-in-process. Substantially all the assets are operated by Ascent Resources, one of the top Utica producers in Ohio. The effective date for the transaction is November 1, 2023, with an expected close in the fourth quarter of 2023, subject to the satisfaction of typical closing conditions. Share

100 plugged and 300,000+ to go; Abandoned well cleanup effort jumps with federal money - Gov. Josh Shapiro says his administration has plugged more abandoned oil and gas wells in the last 10 months than the state government has in the previous six years. Shapiro celebrated the 100th well plugged this year at a state park in Washington County on Wednesday. More wells are being plugged because of new federal money. The Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act signed by President Joe Biden in 2021 gave $4.7 billion to clean up old wells across the country. It’s part of Biden’s push to cut the country’s methane emissions, which have a much higher warming factor than carbon dioxide. Leaky wells can also cause health problems for people who live nearby. Pennsylvania has gotten $25 million so far. The Department of Environmental Protection has awarded contracts to plug 227 wells. “None of this would be possible without federal funding and all the support that we’re getting from the Biden Administration, which is pretty extraordinary,” DEP Secretary Rich Negrin said. DEP has documented around 30,000 orphan wells. But the Shapiro Administration estimates there are more than 300,000 of them in Pennsylvania that contribute 8 percent of the state’s methane emissions. Most of those were drilled before modern regulations by companies that have since gone out of business. Shapiro said he is asking DEP to go after companies that have not cleaned up their wells. “Taxpayers shouldn’t have to foot the bill just because a company thought it could get away with cutting corners,” Shapiro said. The Shapiro Administration budgeted an additional $104 million in federal funding for well-plugging in the 2023-24 fiscal year. DEP has estimated 1,389 wells could be plugged with that amount. DEP said the cost to plug wells has ranged from $10,000 to $800,000, depending on complications, location, depth, and the number of wells per contract. The state had been budgeting around $1 million annually to clean up old wells.

Pa. families want fracking recommendations adopted now - Families that live near fracking in Washington County are disappointed in Gov. Josh Shapiro’s recent partnership with a major gas driller, saying it doesn’t do enough to bring accountability to the industry. Moms and Dads-Family Awareness of Cancer Threat Spike or MAD-FACTS met at the state capitol last week to share stories about illnesses they’ve experienced since fracking boomed in the southwest corner of the state. Jodi Borello said she lives about 1,400 feet from a pipeline inspection gauge receiving station. She said she and her family can see a mist of emissions when they are released from the station. If they stay outside when the mist drifts into her yard, she said, they develop a painful rash. The group wants Shapiro to do more to adopt the recommendations of a 2020 grand jury that found the state failed to protect the public from the health effects of fracking. Earlier this month, Shapiro announced an agreement with CNX for the company to voluntarily follow most of the report’s recommendations.. Shapiro said the agreement could serve as a model for extracting natural gas “in the most responsible, sustainable way anywhere in the nation.” He added that he was tired of waiting for the General Assembly to pass laws on natural gas standards. For MAD-FACTS, the agreement makes it look like Shapiro is siding with industry. The group says it can’t trust CNX, and says CNX has committed more than 400 violations since the grand jury report, according to FracTracker Alliance data. “He did exactly what he said he was trying to protect Pennsylvanians from and I believe he sided with bigger wallets and better connections,” Borello said. Under the agreement, CNX will keep new infrastructure 600 feet from homes, up from 500 feet. The grand jury recommended a 2,500-foot setback. CNX is also promising to be more transparent about what chemicals it uses in the fracking process and to put an end to the “revolving door” between regulators and industry by not hiring Department of Environmental Protection employees for two years after they leave the agency. Shapiro said the agreement with CNX will allow for intensive, independent study, which he hopes will answer questions about the industry.

WhiteHawk to Acquire Marcellus Assets for $54MM | -- WhiteHawk Energy, LLC is acquiring additional Marcellus Shale natural gas mineral and royalty assets for a total price of $54.0 million. The acquisition increases WhiteHawk’s mineral and royalty ownership in its existing 475,000 gross acre position by 100 percent, the company said in a recent news release. WhiteHawk’s Marcellus assets are primarily located in Washington and Greene counties, Pennsylvania, “which represents some of the highest quality natural gas reserves” in the USA, WhiteHawk said. The seller and other transaction details were not disclosed. “These assets include all the ideal mineral and royalty attributes – diversified acreage positions in the core of well-established basins, operated by best-in-class companies, generating significant cash flow with no additional capital expenditures”, WhiteHawk CEO Daniel Herz said. “Since acquiring our initial mineral and royalty interests in the Marcellus Assets in 2022, the assets have performed very well and we are pleased to increase our ownership under some of the best natural gas operators in the world”. WhiteHawk’s Marcellus assets have production from approximately 1,315 horizontal shale wells. Additionally, WhiteHawk owns mineral and royalty interests in 72 wells-in-progress, 64 permitted wells, and nearly 900 undeveloped Marcellus locations, with additional potential from the underlying Utica Shale, according to the release. Upon closing of the acquisition, WhiteHawk said it would double its net revenue interest in each well across its Marcellus assets. Approximately 95 percent of production, cash flow, and present value associated with the Marcellus assets are operated by EQT Corporation, Range Resources Corporation, and CNX Resources Corporation, according to the release. Earlier in the year, WhiteHawk acquired natural gas mineral and royalty assets in the Haynesville Shale, covering approximately 375,000 gross unit acres. Combined, WhiteHawk noted that it currently owns interests in approximately 850,000 gross unit acres within the core operating areas of the Marcellus Shale and Haynesville Shale, with interests in more than 2,550 producing horizontal wells. The company’s Haynesville Shale assets are actively being developed by Southwestern Energy, Chesapeake Energy, Aethon Energy Management, and Comstock Resources. The diversified position benefits from sales points in both the Northeast and Gulf Coast regions with combined operator market capitalization of approximately $50 billion, WhiteHawk said. In August, WhiteHawk announced its entrance into a $100.0 million acquisition finance facility with an undisclosed “top-tier institution”. The company utilized an initial $20.0 million draw on the acquisition facility to fund an additional closing of Haynesville Shale natural gas mineral and royalty assets from Mesa Minerals Partners II, LLC located in northwestern Louisiana and eastern Texas. The facility will mature on December 31, 2025, and contains certain co-investment rights for the institution, according to an earlier news release. WhiteHawk expects to use additional borrowings from the facility to fund future acquisitions of mineral and royalty assets upon the agreement of the institution, and the company may make repayments on the facility at any time, according to the release.

Plan for gas drilling spree in Southern Tier draws muted response from DEC and state reps -An ambitious plan to turn three Southern Tier counties into a vast energy hub pockmarked with thousands of new natural gas wells has drawn a muted response from state regulators and the state legislators who represent the districts. Sixty-five hundred residents in Broome, Tioga and Chemung counties have received packages in the mail encouraging them to sign leases with a new company with Texas roots.Southern Tier CO2 to Clean Energy Solutions LLC — often shortened to Southern Tier Solutions, or STS — intends to drill wells on their land to extract methane and store carbon dioxide (CO2).The plan also calls for the construction of up to a dozen new natural gas-fueled power plants and several direct air capture facilities that pull CO2 out of the atmosphere, according to the STS website. The wells, power stations and DAC plants would be linked by a series of new methane and CO2 pipelines.Bryce Phillips, president of STS, told WaterFront the company would only proceed if it can obtain signed leases for at least 100,000 acres by early March. The project would also require the company to win state permits for a process that is relatively untested: injecting fluid CO2 instead of water to extract methane from the Marcellus and Utica shale formations.New York State bans hydraulic fracturing, or fracking, when it requires more than 300,000 gallons of water per well. Fracking with C02 is a new regulatory issue that the state Department of Environmental Conservation would need to examine and eventually permit. Also, the state’s 2019 climate law requires a gradual reduction in greenhouse gas emissions from natural gas sources.But STS has not yet applied to the DEC for any permits.The agency said in a statement to WaterFront that it “does not have sufficient information about this conceptual project … to speculate about the potential state permits or authorizations that would be required … DEC has not participated in any pre-application meetings nor received permit applications (from STS).” Meanwhile, the state legislators whose districts are targeted for development, aren’t talking.Sen. Tom O’Mara (R-Big Flats), whose Senate district includes Chemung and Tioga counties, did not return telephone calls or respond to emailed questions about the STS project. Neither did Assembly Member Chris Friend (R-Horseheads), whose district includes all of Tioga County and large sections of Chemung and Broome.Sen. Lea Webb (D-Binghamton), whose district includes most of the eastern portions of Broome County, told WaterFront through a spokesperson that she is “aware of the (STS) issue and investigating its potential impact on her district and our climate laws here in NY.”

Southern Tier gas drilling proposal draws questions in Binghamton - Binghamton residents have questions about this gas drilling proposal: What we know - A proposed gas drilling operation using leased land in the Southern Tier has sparked questions and confusion among Binghamton-area residents and local lawmakers.Assemblywoman Donna Lupardo and State Senator Lea Webb said some local land owners received leasing offers from Southern Tier CO2 Clean Energy Solutions (Southern Tier Solutions) and reached out to Lupardo and Webb's offices with questions.The offers went to land owners with more than 30 acres of land in Broome, Tioga and Chemung counties. Lupardo said residents came forward wondering if the leases were a scam, and what they meant.Lupardo and Webb sent a letter to New York State Department of Environmental Conservation (DEC) Commissioner Basil Seggos Tuesday, following these reports from the community.According to the Southern Tier CO2 Clean Energy Solutions website, the company was founded in 2023, and aims to use CO2 to extract methane gas from the Marcellus and Utica shales. On a frequently asked questions page, STS says their process is not the same as high-volume hydraulic fracturing.The company's process "employs an anhydrous or waterless process, without added chemicals or proppant," and uses carbon dioxide to retrieve shale gas resources."The technique relies heavily on the unique properties of carbon dioxide when in its supercritical phase and the affinity of shale, especially shale containing elevated levels of organic content, to absorb carbon dioxide while desorbing methane gas preferentially," their website says.In the letter to the DEC, Lupardo and Webb sought information on the company, the science and background surrounding this method of natural gas extraction and the potential environmental impacts of the development, among other questions. "We're talking about carbon capture facilities, we're talking about thousands of new gas wells, we're talking about pipeline infrastructure, and with everything this community has been though with the Marcellus and Utica shale, we obviously have some questions," said Lupardo. Webb and Lupardo said one of their main priorities was keeping both residents and the environment safe, and avoiding results similar to those of fracking, which the two referenced as a large issue for the area in the past. "We want to make sure that as a state we are doing all that we can to protect our natural resources and that we are not creating harm in any way for residents when it comes to access to clean water, making sure they are not being exposed to dangerous toxins or anything of that nature," said Webb. "It is really important that we do our due diligence to ensure that the promise for economic development that this particular company is trying to advance is not done on the backs of residents of the Southern Tier and across the state." Lupardo said that the company had not reached out to either office, and that the DEC had not reported hearing from the company as of now.

Lawmakers question new form of fracking – Local state lawmakers are looking to get some answers from the DEC regarding a new form of fracking that’s been proposed in our area. Assemblywoman Donna Lupardo and Senator Lea Webb issued a letter to the Department of Environmental Conservation requesting answers concerning the Texas based company named, Southern Tier CO2 Clean Energy Solutions. Lupardo and Webb say the company has solicited over 6,500 land leases to local property owners with at least 30 acres in Broome, Tioga and Chemung counties. In December 2014, following years of contentious debate over the safety of high-volume hydraulic fracturing to extract natural gas, the administration of Governor Andrew Cuomo decided to ban the practice using water. However, the Texas firm wants to drill for natural gas using carbon dioxide. State Assemblywoman Donna Lupardo says, “After everything that this community and this area has been through with Marcellus and Utica Shale, we obviously have some questions. And it is customarily the case that we would write a letter to start the process to the DEC, The Department of Environmental Conservation, to start off with some extremely basic questions. And that’s the step we’re at right now.” The underground Marcellus Shale play, which runs from northern Pennsylvania into Southern New York, is considered to hold immense pockets of natural gas. Southern Tier CO2 Clean Energy Solutions’ extraction process proposes storing carbon underground, with the intention of breaking up the shale above it and releasing natural gas. The letter asks the DEC if it is familiar with similar processes across the country, and if the new form of extraction would help New York reach its green energy climate goals.

US weekly LNG exports up to 27 cargoes -- US liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports rose in the week ending November 15 compared to the week before, according to the Energy Information Administration. The agency said in its weekly natural gas report that 27 LNG carriers departed the US plants between November 9 and November 15, four vessels more compared to the week before. Moreover, the total capacity of these LNG vessels is 100 Bcf, the EIA said, citing shipping data provided by Bloomberg Finance. Average natural gas deliveries to US LNG export terminals rose 2.2 percent (0.3 Bcf/d) week over week, averaging 14.2 Bcf/d, according to data from S&P Global Commodity Insights. Natural gas deliveries to terminals in South Louisiana rose by 5.8 percent (0.5 Bcf/d) to 9.1 Bcf/d, while natural gas deliveries to terminals in South Texas fell by 2.8 percent (0.1 Bcf/d) to 4 Bcf/d. The agency said that natural gas deliveries to terminals outside the Gulf Coast fell by 6.5 percent (0.1 Bcf/d) to 1.1 Bcf/d. Cheniere’s Sabine Pass plant shipped ten LNG cargoes and the company’s Corpus Christi facility sent five shipments during the week under review. Sempra Infrastructure’s Cameron LNG terminal dispatched five LNG cargoes, while the Freeport LNG terminal and Venture Global’s Calcasieu Pass each shipped three cargoes. Also, the Cove Point plant sent one cargo during the week. The Elba Island LNG terminal did no ship cargoes during the week under review. This report week, the Henry Hub spot price increased 66 cents from $2.21 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) last Wednesday to $2.87/MMBtu this Wednesday, the agency said. The price of the December 2023 NYMEX contract increased 0.3 cents, from $3.106/MMBtu last Wednesday to $3.109/MMBtu this Wednesday, the EIA said. According to the agency, the price of the 12-month strip averaging December 2023 through November 2024 futures contracts declined 2.2 cents to $3.284/MMBtu. The agency said that international natural gas futures were mixed this report week. Bloomberg Finance reported that weekly average front-month futures prices for LNG cargoes in East Asia decreased 29 cents to a weekly average of $17.17/MMBtu. Natural gas futures for delivery at the Dutch TTF increased 33 cents to a weekly average of $14.97/MMBtu. In the same week last year (week ending November 16, 2022), the prices were $27.06/MMBtu in East Asia and $34.10/MMBtu at TTF, the EIA said.

Sempra: Port Arthur LNG construction continues under existing permits - Sempra Infrastructure, a unit of Sempra, said it is continuing construction on the first phase of its Port Arthur LNG export project under existing permits after a US court vacated the project’s emissions permit. The US Court of Appeals for the Fifth Circuit said in a decision dated November 14 that the Texas Commission on Environmental Quality (TCEQ) declined to impose certain emissions limits on Port Arthur LNG that it had recently imposed on another such facility, Next Decade’s Rio Grande LNG. “In doing so, it contravened its policy of adhering to previously imposed emissions limits, but it did not adequately explain why. It therefore acted arbitrarily and capriciously under Texas law,” it said. “Accordingly, we vacate Commission’s order granting the emissions permit at issue and remand for proceedings consistent with our opinion,” the order said. A spokeswoman for Sempra Infrastructure told LNG Prime in an emailed statement that the company is reviewing the decision and any potential impacts it may have to the Port Arthur LNG project. “We are continuing construction on the project under existing permits and remain committed to working with the Texas Commission on Environmental Quality and other stakeholders and are evaluating our next steps,” the spokeswoman said. Sempra Infrastructure took a final investment decision on March 20 for the first phase of the project in Texas worth about $13 billion.

Freeport LNG says second LNG jetty ready to return to service - Freeport LNG, the operator of the three-train 15 mtpa liquefaction plant in Texas, is ready to place back into service its second jetty.In October, Freeport received approval from the US FERC to start commissioning its second jetty.The commissioning and cooldown included the Loop 2 transfer piping, Dock, 2 and the recirculation piping.In order to continue Freeport’s sequential plan to return the LNG export facility to full commercial operations, Freeport now requests authorization from FERC to place Loop 2 and Dock 2 back into service, according to a filling dated November 17.“We anticipate nitrogen cooldown to be completed in the next few days, which will then be followed by introduction of hydrocarbons (i.e., LNG) in order to re-inventory the Loop 2 piping system,” Freeport said.Freeport anticipates having the Loop 2 system inventoried on or about November 21st.“Given this, Freeport would greatly appreciate FERC’s response to this request on November 21st so that Dock 2 can be returned to service,” it said.Any return to service would only proceed after the successful and safe completion of Loop 2 cooldown and re-inventorying, Freeport said.The LNG terminal operator noted that any authorization pursuant to this request will be limited to returning Loop 2 and Dock 2 to service and will not include the return to service of any other equipment at its facilities that remain idled from the June 8, 2022 incident, such as Tank 3.In February this year, the LNG terminal operator shipped the first cargo from its LNG export plant in Texas since the shutdown in June 2022.Freeport LNG received approvals from both FERC and PHMSA during the first quarter to restart Phase I operations.These consist of three trains, two LNG storage tanks (tanks 1 and 2), and a single LNG jetty (dock 1).

US natgas prices up 2% on surprise storage draw, colder forecasts | ロイター (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures climbed about 2% on Wednesday on a surprise storage withdrawal, forecasts for colder weather and higher heating demand over the next two weeks than expected, and as record amounts of gas keep flowing to U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said utilities pulled 7 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas from storage during the week ended Nov. 17. That compares with a withdrawal of 60 bcf in the same week last year and a five-year (2018-2022) average decline of 53 bcf. Analysts had projected that warmer-than-usual weather last week kept heating demand low enough to allow utilities to add 7 bcf of gas into storage, according to a Reuters poll. EIA released the storage report one day ahead of its usual schedule due to the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday on Thursday. Front-month gas futures for December delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 5.1 cents, or 1.8%, to settle at $2.897 per million British thermal units (mmBtu). On Tuesday, the contract closed at its lowest since Oct. 2 for a second day in a row. With production at record highs and ample amounts of gas in storage, the futures market has been sending signals that some traders have given up hope of seeing winter price spikes from November through March. The premium of futures for January over December NGZ23-F24 fell to 14 cents per mmBtu, its lowest since October 2022. In other news this week, the New York Independent System Operator (NYISO), the state's power grid operator, said four peaking plants in New York City need to keep operating to maintain reliability in the city for about two years beyond their planned May 2025 retirement. Financial firm LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states rose to 107.5 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in November, up from a record 104.2 bcfd in October. Meteorologists projected the weather would swing from warmer than normal now to colder than normal from Nov. 24-Dec. 1 before turning warmer than normal again from Dec. 3-7. With colder weather coming, LSEG forecast U.S. gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, would jump from 112.8 bcfd this week to 130.5 bcfd next week. Those forecasts were higher than LSEG's outlook on Tuesday. Gas flows to the seven big U.S. LNG export plants rose to an average of 14.3 bcfd so far in November, up from 13.7 bcfd in October and a monthly record of 14.0 bcfd in April. The U.S. is on track to become the world's biggest LNG supplier in 2023, ahead of recent leaders Australia and Qatar. Much higher global prices have fed demand for U.S. exports due in part to supply disruptions and sanctions linked to the war in Ukraine. Gas was trading around $14 per mmBtu at the Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF) benchmark in Europe and $16 at the Japan Korea Marker (JKM) in Asia.

Great Lakes oil spill researchers receive $3.8M from Canada - — The Canadian government has given nearly $4 million to researchers studying the behavior and impacts of oil spilled in the Great Lakes.Lake Superior State University (LSSU) in Sault Ste. Marie, Mich., announced the receipt of $3.87 million from Canada this week, which will fund collaborative research with Algoma University across the international border in Sault Ste. Marie, Ontario. The universities are lead partners in the new International Consortium on Oil Research for Our Waters of the North (ICOR-OWN), which operates out of LSSU’s expanding Center for Freshwater Research and Education campus along the St. Marys River in Sault Ste. Marie.The research center houses the U.S. Coast Guard’s new Great Lakes Oil Spill Center of Expertise, which opened in 2022 and is focused on oil spill preparedness and response.The money comes from a $30.3 million Canadian federal Oceans Protections Plan.Researchers are investigating the behavior and dispersal of heavy diluted bitumen, or dilbit, oil in freshwater, the impact of bioremediation in cold climates and coastal wetlands, and the use of drones and long-rang underwater autonomous vehicles in spill detection and monitoring.Partners in the research include The University of Windsor, University of Michigan, Memorial University, USGS, NOAA, the U.S. Coast Guard and the private firm Limnotech.Researchers are aided by the LSSU freshwater center’s “unique location at an international border and the nexus of the upper Great Lakes,” said center director Ashley Moerke. The research site is located between the Saint Marys Falls Hydropower Plant and a $31 million deep-water port under development to provide dockage for freighters and cruise ships.The LSSU freshwater research center was open in Sault Ste. Marie for less than a year when researchers aided the Coast Guard in its 2022 response to a 5,300 gallon oil spill in the St. Marys River from a steel mill on the Canadian side.

Oil leaking from pipeline off Plaquemines Parish coast - A pipeline on the floor of the Gulf of Mexico has been leaking oil for two days, the Coast Guard and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration say. The leak was spotted Thursday morning 19 miles east of the mouth of Main Pass and reported by the pipeline owner, Main Pass Oil Gathering, a subsidiary of the Houston oil company Third Coast. Satellite images show the slick moved southwest on Friday, toward the mouth of South Pass. Main Pass Oil Gathering shut in a 66-mile segment of the pipeline system Thursday at 6 a.m. That segment runs from east to west to connect Gulf oil fields with coastal pipelines at the mouth of Main Pass. The company's pipeline system, completed in August 2022, carries 80,000 barrels of oil per day from offshore wells to the coast. The Coast Guard stood up a command center and a Joint Incident Command in Belle Chasse, to work with other government agencies and Main Pass Oil Gathering. It was unclear whether the pipeline was still leaking. Coast Guard Lt. Jason Yelvington said multiple overflights Friday suggest the surface sheen contained 291 barrels, or 12,222 gallons, of oil. He said there was no projected landfall of oil in the next 48 hours, but Clean Gulf Associates was sending three 95-foot skimmers to collect the oil on the surface. The first skimmer was in place Friday morning, Yelvington said.

US Coast Guard seeks source of some 1.1 million gallons of crude oil in Gulf of Mexico - The U.S. Coast Guard on Monday said it was still looking for the source of a leak from an underwater pipeline off the Louisiana coast in the Gulf of Mexico that it estimated had released more than a million gallons of crude oil. The 67-mile long pipeline was closed by Main Pass Oil Gathering Co (MPOG) on Thursday morning, after crude oil was spotted around 19 miles offshore of the Mississippi River Delta, near Plaquemines Parish, southeast of New Orleans. “Overflight teams observed visible oil Friday moving southwest away from the Louisiana shore,” the Coast Guard said, as oil recovery efforts continued and underwater devices surveyed the pipeline to find the leak’s source. While the exact volume of discharged oil was not known, the Coast Guard, which was leading the clean-up, said initial engineering calculations placed the volume of the leak at 1.1 million gallons, or 26,190 barrels. It added that there were no reported injuries or shoreline impacts so far, and the cause of the leak was under investigation. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency said on Friday that the Coast Guard had activated the National Response Team, comprising 15 federal entities responsible for coordinating the response to oil pollution incidents. Third Coast Infrastructure, which owns MPOG, declined to comment on Friday and referred questions to the Coast Guard.

1.1 Million Gallons Of Crude Oil Spills Into The Gulf Of Mexico After Underwater Oil Pipeline Leaks Off Louisiana --On Monday, the United States Coast Guard said it was still seeking the cause of a leak from a submerged pipeline off the coast of Louisiana in the Gulf of Mexico, which it estimated had leaked over one million gallons of crude oil. Main Pass Oil Gathering Co (abbreviated MPOG) shut down the 67-mile pipeline on Thursday morning after the discovery of crude oil discovered 19 miles offshore of the Mississippi River Delta, close to Plaquemines Parish, southeast of New Orleans. The Coast Guard said Friday that visible oil was migrating southwest away from the Louisiana coast as oil collection activities continued and underwater gadgets examined the pipeline to determine the source of the breach. It also stated that no injuries or coastline impacts had been reported thus far and that the reason for the leak was being investigated. The Coast Guard launched the National Response Team, a group of 15 federal agencies coordinating the response to oil pollution disasters, according to the US Environmental Protection Agency on Friday. On Friday, Third Coast Infrastructure, which owns MPOG, refused to comment and forwarded queries to the Coast Guard.

US Coast Guard looking for source of pipeline leak in Gulf of Mexico - The US Coast Guard said on Tuesday it was still seeking the source of a leak from a pipeline linked to a Houston-based firm, off the Louisiana coast in the Gulf of Mexico which it estimated had released more than 1m gallons of crude oil. The 67-mile long undersea pipeline was closed by Main Pass Oil Gathering Co (MPOG) last Thursday after crude oil was spotted around 19 miles offshore of the Mississippi River Delta, near Plaquemines parish, south-east of New Orleans. The Coast Guard is leading a multi-agency response, which includes the US Fish and Wildlife Service. Local reports said oiled pelicans had been spotted in the area while overflights and boat surveys were part of the response, which included underwater devices looking at the pipeline. Operations of seven energy companies have been impacted by the spill, officials said.Third Coast Infrastructure, which reportedly completed the pipeline last year, has declined to comment about the spill and referred questions to the Coast Guard.On Tuesday at a news briefing, Coast Guard officials said the Houston firm was suspected of the leak and described it as “the responding party” but said investigations continued, with several operators in the area.MPOG is a subsidiary of Houston-based Third Coast Infrastructure, 50% of which is owned by private equity company IIF, and which is controlled by banking giant JPMorgan, according to the non-profit group Public Citizen, citing a ruling by the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission in September.Initial engineering calculations placed the volume of the leak at 1.1m gallons, or 26,190 barrels. “We’re not saying that was the exact amount. We are not going to know the exact amount of oil that was discharged into the Gulf of Mexico until we find the source,” Capt Kelly Denning, Coast Guard deputy commander for the New Orleans sector, told the media.Denning said it was yet to be established if Third Coast Infrastructure is responsible for the spill. “They’re [the] suspected responsible party but we won’t know until we find the source which is why we keep referring to them as the responding party,” said Denning.

Gulf of Mexico oil spill shuts in around 3% of daily output (Reuters) - Around 61,165 barrels of daily oil output from at least six producers, making up about 3% of crude oil production in the Gulf of Mexico, has been shut in by Third Coast Infrastructure's underwater pipeline leak, the U.S. Coast Guard said on Wednesday.The oil producers whose facilities are impacted include W&T Energy VI (WTI.N), Occidental Petroleum (OXY.N), Walter Oil and Gas, Cantium, Arena Offshore and Talos Energy Ventures (TALO.N), the Coast Guard said, citing the U.S. Interior Department's Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement.The pipeline was closed by Third Coast's Main Pass Oil Gathering Co (MPOG) on Thursday morning after crude oil was spotted around 19 miles (30 km) offshore of the Mississippi River delta, near Plaquemines Parish, southeast of New Orleans.Remotely operated devices and divers had surveyed more than 23 miles (37 km) of the 67-mile-long (108 km) pipeline to find the leak's source, the Coast Guard said in its latest update, adding that no impact was observed on wildlife and the shoreline.While the exact volume of discharged oil was not known, the Coast Guard, which was leading the clean-up, said initial calculations placed the volume of the leak at 1.1 million gallons or 26,190 barrels.Officials said during a press briefing on Tuesday that it had not yet been established whether Third Coast was responsible for the spill, as oil recovery efforts continued.There were no reported injuries so far, and the waterway remains open to all commercial and recreational vessel traffic, officials added.The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency has said that the Coast Guard was coordinating with 15 federal entities in charge of responding to oil pollution incidents, while the National Transportation Safety Board was investigating the cause of the leak.

62,000 Barrel Gulf Oil Spill Is Worst Since Deepwater Horizon And 11th Largest In U.S. History -Offshore production from major oil names like Occidental, W&T Offshore and Talos Energy has been shuttered following a spill that Bloomberg is calling the worst in the US "since the Deepwater Horizon disaster."These producers took a significant hit on Thursday as they stopped approximately 62,000 barrels of daily oil production due to a subsea pipeline rupture. The rupture resulted in a substantial oil spill of 26,000 barrels, equivalent to the volume of two Olympic-size swimming pools, in the Gulf of Mexico near Louisiana, Bloomberg noted. If the magnitude of this spill is verified, it would mark the most substantial incident of its kind since 2010, when BP PLC's Deepwater Horizon rig catastrophe led to the release of 3.2 million barrels of oil off the coast of Louisiana. The report, citing the U.S. Coast Guard, said other firms impacted by the situation include Walter Oil & Gas Corp, Cantium LLC, and Arena Offshore LLC. These entities are now prohibited from resuming pumping activities until the source of the leak is securely identified and necessary repairs are completed, as outlined by the Coast Guard's statement. The initial report of the spill came on Thursday when Main Pass Oil Gathering Co., the pipeline operator, observed a decrease in pipe pressure. It remains uncertain whether Main Pass is indeed the origin of the spill since multiple operators operate in the vicinity. Nevertheless, the Coast Guard has labeled the incident as MPOG 11015, with reference to the company, the report said. If the size of the leak is confirmed, it would be the 11th largest in U.S. history. None of the involved companies responded to requests for comment from Bloomberg, though we're sure that many in the PR offices of these large conglomerates aren't quite having the relaxing Thanksgiving break they envisioned...

Biden still hasn't named a pipeline chief. Is regulatory push in peril? - A record-long vacancy atop the United States’ pipeline agency is raising concerns about the safety and oversight of infrastructure carrying carbon dioxide and natural gas at a time when the Biden administration is pushing to cut emissions.The White House has gone nearly three years without nominating someone to lead the Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration. Tristan Brown has been running PHMSA since February 2021, but only as the acting or deputy administrator. The leadership at the top of the agency could influence the content and pace of several rules that could determine the safety and operations of pipelines affecting everything from gas supplies to carbon capture in the Midwest. They include a proposed leak detection and repair rule that aims to reduce emissions of methane and other gases from natural gas pipelines as well as a plan to enhance existing safety requirements for carbon dioxide pipelines. Some agency observers — and Biden administration critics — said they’re disappointed the White House hasn’t put forward a nominee to head the agency. “Politics is perception, and what does this say about the administration’s view of safety?” said Drue Pearce, director of government affairs at the law firm Holland & Hart and a former deputy administrator at PHMSA under the Trump administration. The White House did not address why President Joe Biden hasn’t nominated someone for the post when asked by E&E News for comments.The agency crafts and enforces regulations for 3.3 million miles of pipelines and shipments of hazardous materials. PHMSA’s pipeline safety program also has not been reauthorized by Congress. The current authorization ran out Sept. 30. Republicans on the House Energy and Commerce Committee released draft legislation in July for reauthorization. In September, Democrats called it “partisan draft legislation.” PHSMA said in a statement that pipeline safety activities are funded by “multi-year appropriations” and are ongoing.

Rising tide of Permian gas fuels price volatility in Texas Gulf Coast market The looming startup of Kinder Morgan's Permian Highway Pipeline expansion is promising to bring a flood of additional supply to the East Texas gas market, adding to recent price volatility there.Over the past five weeks, gas basis prices along the Texas Gulf Coast have been on something of a rollercoaster, fueled by a late third-quarter startup of the MPLX consortium's 500 MMcf/d expansion of Whistler Pipeline, and by recent pipeline maintenance in and around the Permian Basin. Both factors have pushed more Permian gas production eastbound into the Texas Gulf Coast market this fall.In an Oct. 31 earnings release, MPLX, joint owner and developer of the Whistler Pipeline, said the line's capacity expansion from 2 Bcf/d to 2.5 Bcf/d was completed at the end of the third quarter. Although MPLX provided no additional details regarding the commercial startup date for the expanded capacity, or the additional volume flowing on the line, an increase in eastbound flows has likely contributed to recent price volatility at hubs along the Texas Gulf Coast.In mid-October cash prices at Houston Ship Channel and Agua Dulce traded down to a roughly $1.50/MMBtu discount to Henry Hub and have seen significant volatility in the weeks since.Pipeline maintenance around the Permian Basin has likely added momentum to the daily price swings. Nov. 14-20, planned work on Kinder Morgan's Gulf Coast Express Pipeline restricted capacity by as much as 800 MMcf/d. In late October, the pipeline operator also cut capacity on its Permian Highway Pipeline, which restricted flows by up to 370 MMcf/d Oct. 22-31.In the forward gas market, traders appear to be betting that rising seasonal gas demand along the Texas Gulf Coast will more than offset any additional supply from the expected startup of Kinder Morgan's Permian Highway Pipeline expansion next month. According to the developer, the brownfield project should offer up to 550 MMcf/d in additional transport capacity before year-end 2023.At Houston Ship Channel, the November and December forwards contracts are currently trading at an average of just 27 cents below Henry Hub, as of Nov. 21 settlement. At Agua Dulce, the balance-of-year average is even higher – currently trending around 16 cents below Henry Hub. For the peak-winter heating months of January and February, both locations are pricing at a premium to Henry Hub, ranging from about 26 cents at Agua Dulce to 33 cents at Houston Ship Channel, Platts M2MS forwards data showed.

Could Fracking Lead To Massive Earthquakes In North Dakota? - Although fracking has been connected to earthquakes in the past, scientists believe that even tiny seismic tremors can be caused by the drilling process.Drillers use hydraulic fracturing, also known as fracking, to inject fluids underground in order to break through hard rock and access natural gas and oil below.Earthquakes may be caused by the pressure created by this process and the subterranean disposal of the wastewater that is produced as a result. Previous studies connected the fracking boom of the 2000s to an unprecedented number of earthquakes in Texas, Kansas, and Oklahoma, but they were unable to ascertain whether fracking also resulted in softer tremors. It was difficult to discern minute tremors brought on by fracking from other vibrations based on seismometer data. In Oklahoma, which has the most induced earthquakes in the United States, 2% of earthquakes can be linked to hydraulic fracturing operations.Tectonic plates make up the Earth. Fault lines exist where these plates converge. The San Andreas Fault Line in California is the most well-known in the country. It is the most active region for our nation and divides the Pacific and North American plates. Ninety percent of Earth's earthquakes occur along the Ring of Fire, which is where they happen.Violent and fatal earthquakes can occur along the San Andreas fault line. Consider San Francisco in 1989 as an example. A magnitude 6.9 earthquake resulted in approximately 3,800 injuries, 63 fatalities, and property damage estimated at $6 billion. There was only a fifteen-second earthquake. You may recall the August 2011 east coast earthquake, which was a noteworthy and recent event. With a magnitude of 5.8, it was located in central Virginia. It took nearly two years to repair the Washington Monument's cracks and other damage. Fortunately, there were only minor injuries and no fatalities, but the damage was estimated to be worth $200 million and was felt in 12 states. According to the North Dakota Geological Survey, an earthquake typically occurs in our state or is recorded from a distance once every ten years. In the history of the record, there have been 13; the majority have had magnitudes less than 3.7.

NTSB to Determine Cause of Southern California Oil Spill After Anchor Strikes on Pipeline --The National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) will hold a virtual public board meeting next month to determine the probable cause of a crude oil release that occurred after anchor strikes on an underwater pipeline in San Pedro Bay near Huntington Beach, California.On October 1, 2021, crude oil began leaking from a crack that had developed in an underwater pipeline. The pipeline was shut down after oil was spotted on the surface of the water. According to the NTSB, approximately 588 barrels of oil leaked from the pipeline.Investigations later revealed that the pipeline had been dragged by a ship’s anchor likely during a storm on January 25, 2021, more than 9 months prior to the discovery of the oil spill. Surprisingly, the incident was never reported, and the pipeline remained uninspected until oil began washing up on Southern California beaches in early October 2021.Further examination by divers uncovered that a portion of the pipeline had been displaced by about 100 feet on the seafloor, with a 16-inch crack located approximately 4.7 miles west of Huntington Beach. Two containerships, MSC Danit and Beijing, were identified asparties of interest in the initial anchor dragging incident.The incident occurred as the San Pedro Bay anchorages were packed with ships waiting to enter the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach amid the pandemic-induced imports surge that overwhelmed the nation’s supply chains and created an unprecedented backup off Southern California ports.MSC Mediterranean Shipping Company, the operator of MSC Danit, announced in April that it had settled claims with the subrogate insurers of Amplify Energy, the owner and operator of the pipeline. The Beijing is owned by Costamare and chartered to China’s COSCO.At the time of the settlement, MSC said the amount would be jointly funded by MSC and Costamare without admission of responsibility or liability for the environmental damage.Amplify Energy disclosed separately that it had received $85 million in net proceeds from the vessels that were believed to have struck the pipeline. The company last year agreed to plead guilty to criminal negligence charges and pay nearly $13 million related to the spill after it was discovered that the company continued to operate the pipeline for hours after leak alarms went off and then improperly restarted the pipeline after it had been shut down.At the meeting, which will take place December 5, NTSB board members will discuss safety issues associated with the incident. They will also vote on the probable cause and findings related to the crude oil release, as well as provide any necessary safety recommendations.

Alaska Senate Delegation Leads Effort to Restore Energy Production on Alaska’s North Slope - Alaska Native News -U.S. Senators Lisa Murkowski and Dan Sullivan (both R-Alaska) have introduced Alaska’s Right to Produce Act of 2023, legislation that would reverse the Biden Department of the Interior’s (DOI) decision to prohibit oil and gas development on 13 million acres within the National Petroleum Reserve-Alaska (NPR-A) and reinstate the lawfully awarded leases that the Biden DOI cancelled within the non-wilderness Coastal Plain of the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge (ANWR). Representatives Pete Stauber (Minn.-08), Mary Peltola (Alaska-At Large), August Pfluger (Texas-11), and Kevin Hern (Okla.-01) introduced companion legislation in the House.The legislation addresses two of the most onerous of the 56 anti-Alaska actions taken by the Biden administration in direct contravention to Alaska-specific federal laws. The senators argue the Biden DOI’s decisions lack scientific backing or consultation with Alaska Native stakeholders who live in the region, and come at a critical geopolitical moment when energy security is more necessary than ever.“Just last week, I hosted leaders of the Voice of the Arctic Iñupiat, Iñupiat Community of the Arctic Slope, the North Slope Borough, and the Arctic Slope Regional Corporation here in D.C. to elevate their voices and bring attention to their communities’ strong opposition to the Biden administration’s illegal cancellation of lawfully-issued leases in ANWR, and the NPR-A rule that will lock up their lands,” Senator Sullivan said. “There is palpable anger and frustration among Alaskans about the Biden administration’s unrelenting assault on our economy and our ability to lawfully access our lands. This is a grave injustice to the people who actually live on the North Slope. They have been disregarded entirely during this process and denied consultation as the Biden administration locks up their lands. Alaska has a right to produce our own energy for the sake of quality economic opportunities and good-paying jobs, and for the energy security of the entire nation.” “Alaskans are deeply frustrated with the Biden administration’s repeated pushback of responsible resource production in our state,” said Senator Murkowski. “There is no better example than what we see happened on the North Slope now—illegally canceling valid leases in ANWR and pushing to foreclose future development in our petroleum reserve—while wholly neglecting the voices of the Alaska Natives who actually live there, all while loosening restrictions on the likes of Iran and Venezuela. Alaskans must be able to produce our vast resources for the good of the nation and our allies, and I’m pleased to be able to join Senator Sullivan and Congresswoman Peltola in this effort.” Under the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA), former President Donald Trump established an oil and gas leasing program in ANWR. The TCJA restricted energy development in the Coastal Plain of ANWR to 2,000 acres, and production could result in the development of an estimated 10.4 billion barrels of oil.On September 6, 2023, the Biden DOI announced plans to cancel all seven remaining oil and gas leases issued under the Trump administration in ANWR while concurrently locking up 13 million of acres within the NPR-A from oil and gas production. Both actions were taken without notice to the Alaska Native communities most impacted by these decisions.

EIA Boosts Global Liquid Fuels Output Forecasts -- The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) increased its global liquid fuels production forecast for 2023 and 2024 in its latest short term energy outlook (STEO). Total world production is now expected to be 101.54 million barrels per day this year and 102.55 million barrels per day next year, the November STEO revealed. Global output is anticipated to average 102.05 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter of 2023, 101.85 million barrels per day in the first quarter of 2024, 102.25 million barrels per day in the second quarter, 102.98 million barrels per day in the third quarter, and 103.12 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter, according to the STEO. In its previous STEO, which was released in October, the EIA projected that global liquid fuels production would be 101.26 million barrels per day in 2023 and 102.19 million barrels per day in 2024. That STEO saw output averaging 101.56 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter of 2023, 101.53 million barrels per day in the first quarter of next year, 101.94 million barrels per day in the second quarter, 102.58 million barrels per day in the third quarter, and 102.73 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter. The EIA’s latest STEO highlighted that global liquid fuels output averaged 99.99 million barrels per day in 2022. “We forecast global liquid fuels production will increase by 1.0 million barrels per day in 2024, down from growth of 1.6 million barrels per day this year,” the EIA noted in its November STEO. “Although we forecast global oil production to grow next year, we expect ongoing cuts from OPEC+ will keep global production growth lower than global consumption growth and contribute to inventory draws and upward oil price pressure in the early part of 2024,” it added. “Growth in global crude oil supply has been limited in 2023 because of voluntary production cuts from Saudi Arabia and ongoing production cuts from other OPEC+ countries, which raised OPEC’s spare crude oil production capacity from 2.4 million barrels per day in 2022 to a forecast of 4.3 million barrels per day in 2024,” the EIA continued, stating that Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates hold most of this capacity. In the STEO, the EIA highlighted that Russia’s output stabilized in mid-2023 at around 10.6 million barrels per day and said it assumes the country’s oil production will remain relatively flat over the remainder of its forecast period at an average of 10.7 million barrels per day. The EIA warned in the STEO that “heightened uncertainty around the recent attacks on Israel and the potential for tensions spreading to a wider area in the Middle East poses risks to oil supply, including available surplus production capacity”. “At this time, we have not materially changed our oil production forecast for countries in the region, but the geopolitical situation could change rapidly,” the EIA said in the STEO.

Crowd gathers outside BC NDP convention to protest fracking - Victoria Times Colonist -- About 250 people gathered outside the B.C. New Democratic Party convention on Saturday to call on the government to end fracking, a process used to extract natural gas from rock. Those at the rally said the emissions from the province’s oil and gas industry expansions will fuel climate disasters such as wildfires and floods. Protesters chanted “NDP, go frack free” above the din of construction near the Victoria Conference Centre, where the convention was held. A resolution to end fracking in B.C. sponsored by 14 electoral district associations did not reach the floor during the party’s resolution debates on economy and climate on Saturday.

Canadian Court Hands Victory to Petchem Industry, Striking Down ‘Unconstitutional’ Environmental Rules - Alberta and Saskatchewan have secured a Canadian court victory, to turn back environmental challenges and support the petrochemicals sector, which is a top natural gas customer. Federal Court Justice Angela Furlanetto revoked as “unreasonable and unconstitutional” an April 2021 Canadian cabinet regulation that rated all petrochemical items as “toxic” and launched restrictions on popular product lines. The regulations, set to take effect on Dec. 20, would ban single-use plastic drinking straws, eating cutlery, food packaging, grocery checkout bags and stir sticks. Petrochemical plants draw heavily on natural gas liquids byproducts, such as ethane and propane, to make the items. .

Chihuahua Government Backs Mexico Pacific’s Proposed 2.8 Bcf/d Sierra Madre Natural Gas Pipeline - (see map) Mexico Pacific Ltd. LLC has reached an agreement with the government of Chihuahua state to facilitate development of the proposed 2.8 Bcf/d Sierra Madre natural gas pipeline. Sierra Madre would supply Permian Basin gas from the U.S. border across the states of Chihuahua and Sonora to Mexico Pacific’s proposed Saguaro Energía LNG export terminal envisioned for Puerto Libertad on the Sonoran coast. Under the agreement, “the government of Chihuahua will continue to pave an efficient path for the commencement of construction of this historic project in the coming months, marking yet another significant milestone in the progression of energy infrastructure for the state,” Mexico Pacific said.

Mexico’s Abundant Natural Gas Resources Said Enough to Meet Demand for 100 Years - Mexico has enough prospective natural gas resources in its basins to meet the country’s daily demand for the fuel for the next century, according to Commissioner Hector Moreira of the Comisión Nacional de Hidrocarburos (CNH). Moreira, a chemical engineer, previously served as the deputy minister of hydrocarbons at the Mexican Energy Ministry (Sener) and an adviser to the board of directors of state oil company Petróleos Mexicanos (Pemex). He spoke recently about the nation’s gas resources in Mexico City. If Mexico were to prioritize natural gas exploration and production (E&P), the country could become more energy self-sufficient and could reduce its dependence on imports from the United States, he said.

Panama Logjam Could Benefit Europe as USA LNG Cargoes Avoid Asia -- The congestion at Panama Canal could be to Europe’s benefit as US liquefied natural gas supplies will largely bypass Asia. The price gap between the Asian spot LNG price and the European gas benchmark for January has widened in recent weeks, but it’s not enough to encourage shipping American gas to Asia via longer routes through the Suez Canal or the Cape of Good Hope, according to S&P Global Commodities Insights. “The opportunity to sell more profitably to Asia over Europe from the US depends on your access to Panama Canal slots,” said Ciaran Roe, a global director for LNG at S&P. “If you have these, then your costs may be sufficiently low to send the cargo to Asia more profitably than to Europe for January arrivals, otherwise it’s more profitable for cargoes to go to Europe.” The glut of LNG shipments in the Atlantic that pushes prices lower at the height of the heating season would be an advantage for Europe. The development would also ease fears that Asia may pull fuel away from the continent during the frigid winter. The gap between Asian spot LNG and the super-chilled fuel delivered into northwest Europe is about $3 per million British thermal units now, Roe added. A difference of only $2.40/MMBtu makes it more profitable to ship a US cargo to northeast Asia over northwest Europe. But to make a shipment more profitable via Suez or the Cape, the price gap needs to be around $3.7/MMBtu or above, he said. The Panama Canal is a vital shipping route for LNG supplies from the US — the world’s top exporter — to north Asian nations such as Japan, Korea and China. However, a record drought, coupled with projections of poor rainfall for the rest of year, has limited traffic drastically. While some vessels have paid record-high prices in auctions to jump the queue, most others are avoiding the waterway altogether, opting for longer voyages rather than adding weeks of waiting. From December, LNG shippers face even higher uncertainties in securing a transit slot, as they lose top priority to container vessels, according to BloombergNEF. That means the number of LNG tankers passing through the route could even drop to zero in January when auctions for slots will no longer be held, it said. US LNG is free of destination restrictions and can be redirected anywhere, depending on demand and prices. For example, the Panama Canal congestion cost on the journey from Sabine Pass in the US to Futtsu in Japan makes up almost a third of total shipping costs in January, at $5.6 million, data from Spark Commodities show, taking into account delays of 29 days for a return trip. While arbitrage opportunities could still make it lucrative for holders of US-origin LNG to direct cargoes to Asia instead of Europe, full inventories in Asia are another factor in play, according to Rystad Energy. “With inventory levels at several major LNG import terminals in China and South Korea currently high, LNG suppliers are struggling to find buyers willing to purchase cargoes,”

Argentina's New President Promises to Unleash Shale Gas & Oil | Marcellus Drilling News -- Watch out Marcellus/Utica, and Haynesville, and Permian, and Eagle Ford, and Bakken, and SCOOP/STACK, and other major U.S. shale plays. You may have a new competitor coming (way) south of the border. Argentina has just elected a new President, Javier Milei, who promises to unleash his country’s oil and gas industry. Argentina is reputed to have the world’s second-largest deposit of shale gas in the world (and the fourth-largest deposit of shale oil). If Milei follows through and is successful in unleashing shale energy, Argentina could become an LNG exporting powerhouse, competing with the U.S. Hey, maybe a little competition is what we need to overcome the cancer of leftist global warming flummery that holds back our own O&G industry.

Brazil’s Petrobras to invest over $100bn in next five years - Brazil’s state-owned oil and gas company Petrobras plans to invest $102bn (500.15bn reais) over the next five years as part of its strategic plan for the 2024–28 period. The capital expenditure (capex) plan is 31% higher than the previous plan and the increase is mainly associated with new projects, including potential acquisitions, and cost inflation, among others. With 72% of the total, capex for the E&P segment is the highest. It is followed by 16% for refining, transportation and marketing (RTM), 9% for gas and low-carbon energies and 3% for corporate expenses. “Oil and natural gas commodities will continue to be the main drivers of value, with economic and environmental resilience, financing the just transition. Profitable low-carbon investments will gain relevance for long-term value generation,” the energy company said in its announcement. Petrobras said that of the $73bn in E&P capex, more than 67% is allocated to the pre-salt segment, which produces higher-quality oil and emits less greenhouse gases. A total of $7.5bn is allocated for exploration throughout the five years, with $3.1bn going towards exploration in the Equatorial Margin, $3.1bn going towards exploration in the Southeast Basins, and $1.3bn for other countries. The energy company plans to drill around 50 wells as part of this investment in regions where it has secured exploration rights. In the next five years, Petrobras aims to produce 3.2 million barrels of oil and gas equivalent per day with this plan. Over the five years, $17bn will go towards RTM to increase the capacity for producing diesel and expand the supply of goods for the low-carbon market. Capex for the gas and energy segment is $3bn, with the aim of expanding the infrastructure and portfolio of natural gas. Up to $11.5bn will be allocated for low-carbon initiatives aimed at decarbonising activities, as well as the growing low-carbon energy businesses, with a focus on hydrogen production, wind, solar power, biorefining, and carbon capture, utilisation, and storage.

East Med Gas Pipeline Resumes Operations After Month-Long Halt | Pipeline Technology Journal The East Mediterranean Gas (EMG) pipeline, which transports natural gas from Israel to Egypt, has resumed operations after a month-long halt caused by Israel's war with Hamas militants in Gaza, Reuters reported on Tuesday.Chevron Mediterranean Limited (CML), the operator of the EMG pipeline, confirmed in a statement that natural gas flow through the pipeline had resumed on November 14, 2023, after exports via the pipeline were initially halted on October 10, three days after the conflict began.The EMG pipeline runs from the southern Israeli town of Ashkelon, located approximately 10 kilometers (6 miles) north of Gaza, to El-Arish in Egypt, where it connects to an onshore pipeline.Stretching approximately 90 kilometers (56 miles), the EMG pipeline connects the Chevron-operated Leviathan offshore gas field in Israel to El-Arish in Egypt, where it joins an onshore pipeline network. The Leviathan consortium comprises operator Chevron, Israel's NewMed Energy, and Ratio Energies.Chevron had previously announced on Monday that it had resumed natural gas supply from the offshore Tamar field, one month after being instructed by Israeli authorities to halt operations due to the regional unrest.The resumption of natural gas flows through the EMG pipeline marks a significant step in restoring energy supplies to Egypt, which has been grappling with energy shortages in recent years. The pipeline is expected to play a crucial role in diversifying Egypt's energy sources and reducing its reliance on imported liquefied natural gas (LNG).Chevron's decision to restart gas deliveries from Tamar and the EMG pipeline highlights the company's commitment to ensuring a stable and reliable energy supply to its partners in the region. The resumption of operations is also a positive indicator of the region's resilience and its ability to bounce back from periods of conflict and instability.

Egypt to resume LNG exports after rise in supply from Israel - Egypt is about to start exporting LNG again as supplies from Israel have increased, reported Bloomberg.According to Bloomberg ship-tracking data, the Adam LNG ship has arrived at the North African nation’s Idku facility.The development marks Egypt’s return to international LNG exports after a months-long gap, sources told the publication.Resumption is expected to increase gas supplies to Europe and support LNG prices on the continent.Before the summer break, Egypt had stated that exports will resume in October due to a surge in domestic demand.However, last month’s export plans were shelved, and only modest amounts of LNG were shipped from Idku’s storage tanks in the wake of Hamas’ attacks on Israel in early October.

Shell hits gas offshore Egypt - LNG giant Shell has discovered natural gas in Egypt’s North East El-Amriya block, located in the Mediterranean Sea. Shell’s unit in Egypt said in a statement it had successfully completed the drilling of the first well in its three-well exploration campaign, Mina West, in the North East El-Amriya block. Drilling activities took place at a water depth of around 250 meters below sea level in the offshore Nile Delta, with primary data confirming the presence of gas-bearing reservoir, according to Shell Egypt. The company said that further evaluation of the acquired data is required to determine the size and recoverable potential of the discovery. Shell has contracted the Stena Drilling for mobile offshore drilling unit – Stena Forth rig – to carry out the drilling campaign.

Qatar Pulls Europe Closer with Spate of LNG Supply Deals - Even as Qatar faces criticism over its links to Palestinian militant group Hamas, Europe is increasingly tying its future energy security to the natural gas-rich state. Energy Aspects’ James Waddell said Israel’s war against Hamas is “concerning for European buyers,” but not enough for them to stop signing long-term liquefied natural gas deals with Qatar. He said there is still a “fairly low likelihood” that the Strait of Hormuz, through which Qatari cargoes pass, will be disrupted by the conflict. Last month, Europe’s long-term relationship with Qatar was further solidified after QatarEnergy signed three 27-year deals to supply Eni SpA, Shell plc and TotalEnergies with LNG for delivery to the continent starting in 2026. All three majors are stakeholders..

Fracking currently holds only limited potential in Germany “According to economic estimates, fracking could cover around 6 to 12 percent of Germany’s gas consumption,” says Karen Pittel, Director of the ifo Center for Energy, Climate, and Resources. But first, Germany would have to lift its ban on fracking and invest in the industry this would create. It could take anywhere from 5 to 9 years to go from the planning stages to the first extraction of natural gas, Pittel says. However, as Germany aims to achieve its climate neutrality goals by 2045, demand for natural gas is expected to drop significantly from 2030 onward. “Given the limited time frame, investment in natural gas production is problematic as a commercial proposition,” Pittel says. According to an expert panel, fracking operations from unconventional reservoirs generally run for 20 to 30 years due to the high extraction costs. The operating costs for fracking in Germany are estimated to be between EUR 26 and 43 per megawatt-hour. The industry would be competitive if the actual price of natural gas were at the top end of current forecasts, which for 2030 are between EUR 18 and 59 per megawatt hour. “Private investment from companies would require planning certainty,” Pittel says, “but this is something that fracking in Germany cannot offer.”

SNB Faces Anger over Reported $9B Fracking Investment | Rigzone The Swiss National Bank has been slammed for what a coalition of environmental NGOs says is its $9 billion investment in 69 oil and gas fracking companies. Fracking accounts for over half of SNB’s roughly $16 billion invested in fossil fuel extraction, according to the report published by SNB Coalition and Climate Alliance Switzerland. A spokesperson for the SNB declined to comment. An SNB spokesman told Le Matin Dimanche which wrote about the report earlier on Sunday that its investment policy is in line with “fundamental norms largely accepted in Switzerland” and that it’s constantly reviewing its portfolio. Fracking, which uses high-pressure liquid to release fossil fuels underground, triggered a huge boom in shale oil and gas in the US. But it has faced significant opposition, particularly in densely populated parts of Europe, because of the risks it can destabilize the ground and Switzerland is no exception. Fourteen of Switzerland’s 26 cantons that reject fracking are also home to 69 percent of the population and own about 27 percent of SNB shares, according to the NGOs. “Due to the broadly supported rejection of fracking by cantonal governments and the population, it can be considered a norm and value of Switzerland, which the SNB should also respect,” they said.

Full production returns to affected LNG train at Chevron's Gorgon facility (Reuters) - Full production has returned to a liquefied natural gas (LNG) train at Chevron's Gorgon facility in Western Australia, a company spokesperson said on Wednesday. On Oct. 31, an "electrical incident" at a substation providing power supply to the facility had curtailed the output of one of the three LNG production trains at Gorgon to 80% of capacity. The National Gas Company of Trinidad and Tobago Limited (NGC) NGC’s HSSE strategy is reflective and supportive of the organisational vision to become a leader in the global energy business. Production at Train 3 had resumed "over the past few days," said the Chevron spokesperson. The output reduction at the train however did not affect domestic gas and the other two LNG production trains at Gorgon. Gorgon exports LNG to customers across Asia and produces domestic gas for the Western Australian market. It has three LNG trains, or production units, with a total capacity of 15.6 million metric tons per year. It also has a domestic gas plant with the capacity to supply 300 terajoules of gas per day to Western Australia.

Chevron says third Gorgon LNG train returns to full production - The third liquefaction train at Chevron’s giant Gorgon LNG plant in Western Australia has returned to full production, Chevron told LNG Prime on Wednesday. A Chevron spokesperson said that Gorgon Train 3 had returned to full production “over the past few days.” The spokesperson did not provide any additional information. Earlier this month, Chevron said that an electrical incident occurred on October 31 in a substation which provides power supply, resulting in the plant’s third train to produce at 80 percent capacity. Chevron said domestic gas and the remaining two LNG production trains at the Gorgon plant were unaffected. The Gorgon LNG plant on Barrow Island has three trains and a production capacity of some 15.6 mtpa.

Japan boosts LNG imports in October - Japan’s monthly liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports increased in October compared to the same month last year, according to the provisional data released by the country’s Ministry of Finance.The country’s LNG imports rose by 6.4 percent year-on-year in October to about 5.41 million tonnes, the data shows.LNG imports dropped compared to 5.52 million tonnes in the previous month, which also marked an increase compared to the previous year.Japan’s coal imports for power generation decreased in October compared to the last year.Coal imports were down by 5.1 percent to 8.61 million tonnes, and Japan paid about $1.62 billion for these imports, a drop of 52.4 percent compared to the last year, the data shows.State-run Japan Oil, Gas and Metals National Corp (JOGMEC) said the average price of spot LNG cargoes for delivery to Japan contracted in September 2023 and scheduled to be delivered from the month onward was $14.2/MMBtu, JOGMEC said.This compares to $12.2/MMBtu in September.Also, the average price of spot LNG cargoes that were delivered in Japan within the month of October regardless of the month when the contract was made (arrival-based price) was $12.8/MMBtu, compared to 11.9/MMBtu in the prior mont.

Oman LNG seals supply deal with BP - State-owned producer Oman LNG has signed a deal to supply liquefied natural gas to UK-based energy giant BP. Oman LNG announced the signing of the sales and purchase agreement on Tuesday. Under the SPA, Oman LNG will supply 1 million metric tonnes per year of LNG to BP for a period of nine years starting in 2026, it said. The LNG producer did not provide any additional information. Oman LNG, in which the government of Oman hold 51 percent recently signed shareholding deals with international companies, including Shell and TotalEnergies. Based on these agreements, Oman LNG’s shareholding structure will continue with Oman Investment Authority, Shell, TotalEnergies, Korea LNG, Mitsui & Co., Mitsubishi, PTTEP, and Itochu. These agreements followed Oman LNG’s large marketing campaign aimed at renewing all of its contracts post 2024. In August, Oman LNG signed deals to supply LNG to OQ Trading and Shell, completing the campaign with a total volumes of 10.4 mtpa. Following the signing of the deals, Shell will become Oman LNG’s largest off-taker post 2024 and will purchase up to 1.6 mtpa from Oman LNG from 2025 to 2034. Besides these contracts, Oman LNG signed a deal with German gas importer Securing Energy for Europe (SEFE) and a deal earlier this year with China’s Unipec, a unit of state-owned energy giant Sinopec. Oman LNG also signed term sheets with Turkey’s Botas and its shareholders TotalEnergies and PTT. In addition, Oman LNG signed key term sheets in December to supply LNG to Japan’s Jera, Mitsui, and Itochu. The firm operates three LNG trains in Qalhat with a nameplate capacity of 10.4 mtpa sourcing gas from the central Oman gas field complex. Due to debottlenecking, the company’s complex now has a production capacity of around 11.4 mtpa.

Pakistan launches tender for one spot LNG cargo - State-owned Pakistan LNG has released a tender inviting firms to submit bids for one spot LNG shipment for delivery in January.Pakistan LNG is seeking one 140,000 cbm cargo on a delivered ex-ship (DES) basis and the delivery window is January 8-9, 2024, according to a document released on November 20.Also, the potential tender winner will deliver the cargo to the FSRU BW Integrity serving Pakistan GasPort’s terminal in Port Qasim, Karachi, or the Energo Elengy facility.The tender closes on November 24.Prior to this tender, Pakistan LNG received offersfrom traders Trafigura and Vitol for two spot cargoes with deliveries on December 7-8 and December 13-14.Trafigura was the only firm to submit an offer for the delivery on December 13-14 and it offered a price of $19.3900/MMBtu.Vitol offered the lowest price of 15.9700/MMBtu for the December 7-8 delivery.

Spot LNG shipping rates down for first time in four weeks, Spark says -Spot liquefied natural gas (LNG) freight rates fell this week for the first time in four weeks, according to Spark Commodities.Last week, LNG shipping rates increased but the rate of increase slowed compared to the previous weeks.The Spark30S Atlantic increased by $750 to $165,750 per day, while the Spark25S Pacific increased by $2,250 to $152,500 per day.“LNG freight rates fell this week for the first time in four weeks, with a 3 percent week-on-week decrease in the Atlantic,” Qasim Afghan, Spark’s commercial analyst told LNG Prime on Friday.Afghan said that the Spark30S Atlantic decreased by $5,000 to $160,750 per day, while the Spark25S Pacific decreased by $750 to $151,750 per day.As per European LNG pricing, the SparkNWE DES LNG front month also declined from the last week.The NWE DES LNG for December was assessed last Friday at $14.289/MMBtu and at a $0.825/MMBtu discount to the TTF.“The SparkNWE DES LNG price for December delivery is assessed at $13.801/MMBtu and at a $0.815/MMBtu discount to the TTF,” Afghan said. “This is a $0.488/MMBtu reduction in DES LNG price, with the discount to the TTF remaining almost unchanged, when compared to last week’s December prices,” he said.According to Platts data, JKM, the price for LNG cargoes delivered to Northeast Asia, dropped from the last week.JKM for January settled at $17.100/MMBtu on Thursday.

Golar's FLNG leaves Singapore to start Tortue job - Golar LNG’s converted floating LNG producer, Gimi, which will serve the first phase of BP’s Greater Tortue Ahmeyim FLNG project offshore Mauritania and Senegal, has finally left Seatrium’s yard in Singapore, according to shipping data.According to a statement by Golar, the FLNG departed the yard on Sunday.Gimi is now sailing under its own propulsion, supported by an escort tug, toward BP’s purpose-built Greater Tortue Ahmeyim hub offshore Mauritania and Senegal, it said.Golar expects the voyage to take around 60 days, including refueling stops in Mauritius prior to rounding the Cape of Good Hope and in Namibia prior to its arrival.Upon arrival, Gimi will notify BP that it is ready to be moored and connected to the hub, which is expected to trigger the start of contractual cash flows under the 20-year lease and operate agreement on the GTA field, Golar said. Back in February 2019, Golar entered into the deal with BP for the charter of the FLNG.Gimi was converted from a 1975-built Moss LNG carrier with a storage capacity of 125,000 cbm.This is the world’s second converted floating LNG producer and joins Golar’s Hilli, also converted by Seatrium and currently located offshore Cameroon’s Kribi.It will produce up to 2.7 million tonnes of LNG per year, using the Black & Veatch “Prico” liquefaction process.Golar said in August that it expected the 293 meters long converted floating LNG producer to leave Seatrium’s yard in Singapore in September and after that it moved the departure to October.

Russia's Gazprom plans investment cut as exports drop --Russian state-owned energy giant Gazprom said Thursday it planned to cut investment spending by a fifth next year amid dwindling gas flows to Europe and a heavy tax burden. Since Russia launched its assault on Ukraine in February 2022, European countries have sharply cut gas imports from Russia in a bid to curb Moscow's ability to fund the conflict. The Kremlin has relied on oil and gas export revenues to fund its offensive in Ukraine, and last year announced massive tax hikes on the industry to cover its budget. While Gazprom has shifted some of its exports to China and Turkey, it slashed its gas production by a quarter in the first half of this year as it struggled to make up for lost sales. Its investment programme for next year, spent on energy projects and infrastructure, will drop about 20 percent year-on-year to 1.57 trillion rubles ($17.8 billion), the company said. "The approved financial plan will ensure Gazprom covers its liabilities without a deficit and in full," it said in a statement. Gazprom's losses could reach 1 trillion rubles in 2025 due in part to the heavier tax burden, ruling party lawmaker Pavel Zavalny warned earlier this month. The company posted a profit of 296 billion rubles in the first half of this year, a fraction of the 2.5 trillion rubles in profits it earned in the first half of 2022.

Sanctioned oil tankers ship Russian oil to India – In recent months, three oil tankers recently sanctioned by the US shipped Sokol crude oil from Russia’s Far East to the biggest oil refiner in India.According to ship tracking data from LSEG and Kpler, the Kazan, Ligovsky Prospect andNS Century discharged Sokol crude to Indian Oil Corp in September. Two of the ships also made the trip to India in September.On Thursday, Washington placed sanctions on the three vessels for transporting Russian oil above the price cap. The price cap was introduced in 2022 and bars Western companies from buying, insuring or transporting Russian crude above $60 per barrel. Deputy Secretary of the Treasury Wally Adeyemo said: “Shipping companies and vessels participating in the Russian oil trade while using Price Cap Coalition service providers should fully understand that we will hold them accountable for compliance.”Several traders who wished to remain anonymous told Reuters that the sanctions may hinder the shipping of Russian oil in the short term, but they are unlikely to stop it altogether as long as trade in Russian oil remains lucrative.Another trader said that India may turn to the Mediterranean and the North Sea to replace Russian Sokol.India has sought to make the most of discounted Russian oil since the beginning of the war in Ukraine when Western nations stopped buying from Moscow. In the first half of the 2023/24 fiscal year, overall imports rose by around two-fifths, and Russia was the top oil supplier to India from April to September. On India’s geopolitical relationship with Russia, Felix K Chang, senior fellow at the Foreign Policy Research Institute, said: “It (India) sharply boosted its purchases of Russian commodities, from fertilizer to steel. Most notably, India went from being a negligible importer of Russian oil in 2021 to being the biggest in 2022.”

India's October crude oil imports rise after four months of declines -- India's crude oil imports rose in October, after falling in the previous four months, as the world's third biggest oil importer and consumer shipped in more fuel to meet winter demand, Petroleum Planning and Analysis Cell (PPAC) data showed on Thursday. Crude imports in October rose 5.9% month-on-month to 18.53 million metric tons, rebounding from a one-year low in September. India's fuel consumption also rose to a four-month high in October, as increased industrial activity boosted sales during the festive season and the onset of winter, government data showed earlier in the month. "With demand picking seasonally up as we approach the end of the year, there was a higher need to import more crude to cover higher demand for refined products," said UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo. The year-on-year rise in imports is due to the rise in domestic demand, supported by solid economic growth, Staunovo added. Data from the PPAC website also showed product imports rising 13.4% to 4.41 million tons from October last year and product exports 12.6% higher over the same period to 4.47 million tons. On a monthly basis, product imports rose 7.6% in October, while exports fell 7%. OPEC's share in India's oil imports in October hit a 10-month high as refiners bought more crude from Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates after discounts narrowed for Russian oil that month, trade data showed. Indian refiners have slowed Russian oil imports in recent months from the nearly 2 million barrels per peak seen earlier this year as discounts have narrowed.

Greek shippers exit Russian oil trade as U.S. tightens price cap scrutiny - Three major Greek shipping firms have stopped transporting Russian oil in recent weeks in order to avoid U.S. sanctions now being imposed on some shipping firms carrying Russian oil, four traders told Reuters and shipping data showed. The development is a blow to Russia as it narrows the number of shipping firms that are ready to transport Russian oil to consumers in Asia, Turkey, the Middle East, Africa and South America – although traders said Moscow still had enough shipping firms for now. Greek shippers Minerva Marine, Thenamaris and TMS Tankers have stopped transporting Russia oil in recent weeks, the four traders said. Thenamaris said it doesn’t comment on commercial matters. Minerva Marine and TMS Tankers didn’t respond to requests for comment. All three firms were active shippers of Russian oil and fuels up until September-October when they started scaling down their involvement, according to the traders and data from shipping agents seen by Reuters. All three companies turned down requests for vessels for Russian crude loading in November and later, said the traders, who previously collaborated with the three firms. The Greek shippers’ exit from the trade followed tighter U.S. sanctions imposed on Russian oil shipments. In October, Washington imposed the first sanctions on owners of tankers in Turkey and the United Arab Emirates carrying Russian oil above the G7’s price cap of $60 a barrel. Last week, it imposed sanctions on three more ships. The G7 countries introduced a price cap on Russian oil in late 2022, but had not previously enforced it. The price cap allows Western firms to provide shipping and insurance services for Russian crude as long as the oil is sold below $60 per barrel. The cap is designed to limit Russian export revenues. Russia’s main export grade, Urals, has been trading above the $60 per barrel cap since mid-July amid production cuts by the OPEC+ group of oil producing countries, prompting many market watchers to say the price cap wasn’t working. Russia’s Pacific ESPO Blend crude oil grade has also traded above the cap, according to U.S. Treasury data. The three Greek firms had been shipping Russian oil for decades and continued to do so when most other Western companies quit running the routes to avoid rising sanction risks and the imposition of the price cap.

Russia’s oil and gas budget revenues seen down 40% in Nov. m/m – Reuters calculations - Proceeds from oil and gas sales for Russia’s federal budget are likely to be almost 40% lower this month than in October due to cyclical payments of profit-based tax and the restoration of subsidies for refineries, Reuters calculations showed. The proceeds could total some 1 trillion roubles ($11.15 billion) in November, down from 1.63 trillion roubles last month, but up from 0.87 trillion roubles in October 2022. The finance ministry is expected to disclose the November budget proceeds in early December. Russia’s energy revenues have been squeezed by Western sanctions, such as price caps and an embargo on seaborne oil exports, and by the closure of the Nord Stream gas pipelines to Europe, which were blown up in September 2022. Investigators have yet to establish who was responsible for the blasts. Reuters’ calculations are based on data from industry sources and official statistics on oil and gas production, refining and supplies on domestic and international markets. Proceeds from oil and gas sales are crucial for Russia’s commodity-oriented economy and for the financing of what Moscow calls its special military operation in Ukraine. Still, their share in the budget has been declining, accounting for 41.6% of total budget revenue in the whole 2022, while in January-September of this year, oil and gas sales accounted for 28.3% of total proceeds of 19.73 trillion roubles. Russia’s oil and gas revenues in October more than doubled to 1.635 trillion roubles from 739.9 billion roubles in September thanks to profit-based tax payments totalling 0.59 trillion roubles. November proceeds will also decline thanks to the reinstatement of damper payments to refineries totalling some 125 billion roubles to compensate for selling the fuel on the domestic market instead of as more lucrative exports.

Philippine tanker spill claims bill tops $50m - More than 30,000 claims have been registered from the local fishing industryA tanker spill in the Philippines earlier this year has led to 35,500 separate claims totalling more than $50m. The 1,143-dwt Princess Empress (built 2022) sank off Oriental Mindoro in February, leading to widespread oil pollution. According to data released at the International Oil Pollution Compensation Funds’ November meeting, 35,500 claims have been made up to now against the spill. Oil pollution compensation claims of PHP 1.4bn ($25.3m), $26.4m and €2.7m ($2.9m) have been made so far. The first layer of claims costs, up to the owner’s liability limit, will be met by the Shipowners’ Club, which is the Princess Empress’ protection and indemnity insurer. The remaining claims will be paid out through the IOPC Funds, according to the 1992 Civil Liability Convention (1992 CLC) and the Small Tanker Oil Pollution Indemnification Agreement. Around 33,000 of the claimants are involved in the local fishing industry, which has led to logistical difficulties in meeting claims. “The compensation process has been complicated by the fact that most claimants in that sector do not have bank accounts,” IOPC Funds said. “However, working together with the [Shipowners’] club, the secretariat quickly found alternative ways to make payments and has also continued with the process of making provisional payments in order to alleviate the financial hardship on those affected.” So far the Shipowners’ Club and IOPC Funds have paid out PHP 42.5m, $24.8m and €2.6m.

Philippine tanker oil spill claims surpass 30,000 | Insurance Business Asia - Data presented at the International Oil Pollution Compensation Funds’ (IOPC Funds) November meeting revealed that compensation claims have been made for a Philippine tanker sinking of PHP1.4 billion ($25.3 million), $26.4 million, and €2.7 million ($2.9 million), so far.Earlier this year, the sinking of the tanker Princess Empress off Oriental Mindoro in the Philippines resulted in significant oil pollution and has now led to 35,500 claims totalling over $50 million. The Princess Empress, a 1,143-dwt vessel built in 2022, sank in February, causing widespread environmental damage.According to a Trade Winds report, the initial layer of claims, up to the owner’s liability limit, will be covered by the Shipowners’ Club, the Princess Empress’s P&I insurer. The remaining compensation will be paid through the IOPC Funds, in accordance with the 1992 Civil Liability Convention (1992 CLC) and the Small Tanker Oil Pollution Indemnification Agreement.A significant number of claimants, approximately 33,000, are from the local fishing industry. This high number of claimants has presented logistical challenges, particularly as most do not possess bank accounts.Despite these difficulties, the IOPC Funds, working with the Shipowners’ Club, has found alternative payment methods, and has continued making provisional payments to mitigate financial hardship for those affected. To date, the Shipowners’ Club and IOPC Funds have disbursed PHP42.5 million, $24.8 million, and €2.6 million.Claims exceeding $10 million under the Shipowners’ Club’s liability will be covered by the International Group of P&I Clubs claims pool.

Deepwater Oil Discoveries Offshore Namibia Generating Huge Excitement | Rigzone -Recent deepwater oil discoveries off the coast of Namibia are generating huge excitement in the industry, Wood Mackenzie’s Upstream Research Director Ian Thom stated in an opinion piece posted on the company’s website this week. “The projected scale and quality of these reserves give them the potential to generate huge cash flows and make the country a core region for several major international oil companies (IOCs),” Thom said in the piece. The Wood Mackenzie representative highlighted in the piece that exploration offshore Namibia dates back to the 1970s but noted that the “breakthrough” happened in February 2022, “with major discoveries by Shell and TotalEnergies in the Graff and Venus blocks”. “Venus in particular is potentially the biggest ever oil discovery in Sub-Saharan Africa, and among the top 10 globally since the turn of the century,” he added. Overall, Namibia has 230,000 square kilometers of licensed acreage, Thom said in the piece. “By way of comparison, Norway has less than 100,000,” he added. “Currently, the area is hugely under-explored, with fewer than 20 deepwater wells, compared to thousands of wells offshore in places like the North Sea or the Gulf of Mexico,” he continued. “And with so few wells drilled in Namibia, we can expect further exploration success and resource upgrades. So far, Namibia is in on trend with results achieved from other frontier deepwater hotspots like Guyana, Suriname, and Senegal,” he went on to state.

Oil spill off Nigeria's Egina field under control, agency says (Reuters) - Nigerian authorities are closely monitoring and working to contain an oil spill that occurred during loading operations at the TotalEnergies (TTEF.PA) operated Egina field on Nov. 15, the maritime agency said on Wednesday. The Nigerian Maritime Administration and Safety Agency (NIMASA) is collaborating with the spill detention agency and the oil industry regulator to contain the spill, though the volume is not yet confirmed, spokesperson Osagie Edward said in a statement. A TotalEnergies spokesperson said the spill impact was minimal and production at the 200,000 barrel-per-day capacity oilfield was not affected. The company is working with local authorities to clear the resident sheen from the incident, he said. Oil spills have blighted Nigeria's oil-rich Niger River delta region for decades, causing widespread environmental damage and negatively impacting the lives of millions of people in the local communities. NIMASA said TotalEnergies is providing aerial surveillance and applying dispersant while considering further action to clean up the spill. "Since the incident happened, our men have been liaising with other organs of government to ensure the pollution is effectively controlled and managed, to protect the marine environment and the communities close to the incident point," NIMASA chief Bashir Jamoh said. So far, a reconnaissance survey of neighbouring areas shows that coastal communities across Andoni, Qua-Iboe terminals, Bonny Island, Opobo/Nkoro and Eastern Obolo have not yet been impacted by the spill. Oil majors operating in Nigeria, Africa's top crude producer, have faced a string of litigation in the past over spills. In May, Shell won a UK Supreme Court case over a 2011 oil spill off Nigeria's coast.

TotalEnergies working with Nigerian authorities to contain pollution in the wake of offshore oil spill - French energy giant TotalEnergies has joined forces with several Nigerian organizations, including the Nigerian Maritime Administration and Safety Agency (NIMASA), to address and manage the potential impacts of a crude oil spill that took place during loading operations at a field in the OML 130 production license offshore Nigeria.According to NIMASA, the crude oil spill incident occurred during loading operations on TotalEnergies’ Egina field on November 15, 2023, at about 6:30 a.m. Due to this incident, the Nigerian regulator is working closely with the National Oil Spill Detection and Response Agency (NOSDRA), and Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) from the Crisis Management Room (CMR), where the spill is being monitored in real-time, using oil spill monitoring software from the Emergency Response Center. Dr Bashir Jamoh OFR, Director General of NIMASA, commented:“Since the incident happened, our men have been liaising with other organs of government to ensure the pollution is effectively controlled and managed, to protect the marine environment and the communities close to the incident point. Accidents do happen, it’s what we do thereafter that matters, and I believe that the IOC Total, working with NIMASA, NUPRC, NOSDRA and collaborating with international service providers, will surely ensure proper management of the spill.”Furthermore, Total Energies is providing aerial surveillance, and dispersant application, while further mobilization is being considered. The volume of oil spilled is not yet confirmed, however, NIMASA highlights that a reconnaissance survey of the impacted area shows the shoreline communities of Andoni, Qua-Iboe terminals, Bonny Island, Opobo/Nkoro, and Eastern Obolo, which are closest to Egina, are not affected so far.The Oil Spill Response Limited from the United Kingdom is also assisting with pollution control measures. NIMASA’s Director General underlines that the agency is working in tandem with all stakeholders to control pollution and put in place measures to prevent such occurrences in the future, in line with provisions of the MARPOL Convention.TotalEnergies secured a 20-year renewal in May 2023 of the OML 130 production license, which is located 150 kilometers off the Nigerian coast and contains the Akpo and Egina fields, which came into production in 2009 and 2018, respectively. TotalEnergies Upstream Nigeria Limited operates OML 130 with a 24% interest, in partnership with CNOOC (45%), Sapetro (15%), Prime 130 (16%), and the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Ltd as the concessionaire of the PSC. Currently, the French oil major is in the process of drilling the first of three wells on the Akpo West field with one of Noble Corporation’s drillships. Upon completion, these wells will be tied into the FPSO Akpo, and the production start-up from this short-cycle project is expected by the end of 2023.

Shell Faces UK Trial Over Oil Spills in Nigeria -- The High Court in London has ruled that thousands of Nigerians can sue Shell for breaching their right to a clean environment due to oil spills, law firm Leigh Day, representing the plaintiffs, said on Thursday.“If the case succeeds at trial, it will be the first time in legal history that a UK multinational will have been found to have breached a communities’ right to a clean environment,” the law firm said in a statement.In February this year, more than 13,000 residents from the Ogale and Bille communities in Nigeria filed claimsagainst Shell over the oil spills, seeking compensation for loss of livelihoods and damage against the oil giant.In the ruling of the High Court in London this week, “The judge found it could be argued the pollution has fundamentally breached the villagers’ right to a clean environment under the Nigerian Constitution and the African Charter and those constitutional rights were directly enforceable and can be relied upon against companies like Shell,” the law firm said today.“Importantly, such claims have no limitation period, meaning Shell would not be able to evade liability on the grounds the communities did not bring their claims within a narrow time frame,” Leigh Day added. Shell has denied responsibility for oil spills in Nigeria.“Oil is being stolen on an industrial scale in the Niger Delta,” Shell said in a statement carried by Bloomberg. “This criminality is a major source of pollution and is the cause of the majority of spills in the Bille and Ogale claims.”In recent years, the UK-based supermajor has won several cases concerning oil spills in Nigeria that have occurred since the 1990s.In late 2019, Shell won a court ruling that blocked the enforcement of more than half a billion dollars for damages against the oil supermajor in a decade-old oil spill case in Nigeria.In May this year, Shell won a similar case after the UK Supreme Court ruled it was too late for Nigerian claimants to sue two Shell subsidiaries over a 2011 offshore oil spill.

Global Protests Target Chinese Financing of East African Crude Oil Pipeline -Campaigners assembled on Monday in four African countries and in Europe, rallying outside the headquarters of several Chinese financial institutions and embassies with one demand of Chinese officials: Withhold financing for the East African Crude Oil Pipeline. The global campaign #StopEACOP has already helped push banks and insurers in North America, Europe, and Japan to refrain from getting involved in the project, which is being spearheaded by French multinational TotalEnergies and China National Offshore Oil Corporation.Now, the state-owned China Export & Credit Insurance Corporation (SINOSURE), the Export-Import Bank of China (China Exim), and the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC) are reportedly considering financially supporting the pipeline, which could lead to 379 million tons of fossil fuel emissions even as climate and energy experts warn there is no place for new gas and oil extraction on a pathway to limiting planetary heating to 1.5°C."Today, people stood united across borders to say this dangerous pipeline project must be stopped," said Zaki Mamdoo, #StopEACOP coordinator. "We urge SINOSURE, China Exim Bank, and the ICBC to listen to local communities and respect their rights, aspirations, and agency. By refusing to provide insurance or financing for EACOP, these entities must prove that they are not simply interested in profiting at the expense of Africa's well-being."Organizers rallied at Chinese embassies in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania; Kampala, Uganda; Kinshasa, Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC); and Tshwane, South Africa. In London, United Kingdom, climate campaigners held a solidarity action outside the offices of SINOSURE and in Paris, France they rallied at the offices of the China Exim Bank and the ICBC.The planned pipeline would run from Hoima, Uganda to Tanga, Tanzania, transporting oil from two oil fields and potentially connecting to oil blocks in the DRC."The controversial EACOP project threatens pristine ecosystems, biodiversity hotspots, water resources, and community lands," said #StopEACOP, as well as "contradicting global climate goals."Campaigners had planned to deliver petitions opposing the 896-mile pipeline, as well as documents containing analysis of the socioeconomic and climate impacts of the project. According to #StopEACOP, the pipeline would run through the basin of Lake Victoria, which more than 40 million people depend on for food and water; displace landowners who say they have already faced threats and intimidation; and run through the habitats of endangered animals including lions, giraffes, roan antelopes, and sables.#StopEACOP reported that officials at the embassies refused to receive the documents.Organizers also denounced authorities for arresting seven advocates in Kampala.

The UAE Could Raise Oil Production Regardless of OPEC+ Decision - OPEC’s third-largest producer, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), could raise its oil output next year as it has won a higher quota under the OPEC+ agreement. The UAE, OPEC’s third-biggest producer after Saudi Arabia and Iraq, said in the summer that it would not join the Saudis in making voluntary production cuts.The UAE has argued for years that it should be allowed to pump more than its current OPEC+ quota as it is raising its production capacity.At the June meeting, the UAE got a huge concession from OPEC+ in the form of an upward revision of its quota that will take its production up by 200,000 barrels per day (bpd) to 3.219 million bpd for 2024. A rise in the UAE’s oil production next year doesn’t necessarily mean that the OPEC+ group would be pumping more—some members such as Angola are underperforming compared to their already lowered quotas. While the UAE is set to boost its oil production in 2024, market speculation is growing that OPEC’s top producer, Saudi Arabia, will extend its voluntary cut into 2024, considering the latest slide in oil prices to $80 and the typically weak period for oil demand in the first quarter of every year. Market talk is also intensifying that OPEC+ could announce a deeper cut at the group’s meeting in the weekend November 25-26. The recent weakness in oil prices “has increased noise over what OPEC+ will decide to do at its meeting on 26 November. We continue to expect that Saudi Arabia and Russia will roll over their additional voluntary cuts into early 2024,” ING strategists Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey wrote on Monday. “However, what is less clear is whether the broader OPEC+ group will make further cuts,” they added.

JP Morgan Expects Brent Crude to Average $83 in 2024 -- JP Morgan has forecast an average price for Brent crude of $83 per barrel next year amid a stable market. The forecast is based on the analysts’ expectations of resilient demand for oil in the United States, strong demand growth in emerging markets, and stability in European markets. For 2025, JP Morgan analysts said they expected an average Brent crude price of $75 per barrel. As with many others, the forecast is based on expectations of substantial energy efficiency gains and growth in EV sales at the expense of internal combustion engine vehicles, leading to lower demand for fuels. At the same time, the bank also expects a weakening of jet fuel demand after the recent surge. In terms of total demand, for this year JP Morgan analysts expect growth of 1.9 million bod, weakening to 1.6 million bpd in 2024. "Despite sustained economic headwinds, we see demand ... underpinned by robust EM, resilient US and weak but stable Europe," the bank’s analysts wrote. "Demand composition will likely flip, with two-thirds of demand gains set to come from the overall economic expansion, while continued normalization of jet fuel would contribute the rest." On the supply side, JP Morgan expects growth in non-OPEC production, which could undermine the cartel’s efforts to keep prices above a certain level. If non-OPEC supply growth is strong enough, it could push Brent below $70 per barrel. In this context, JP Morgan’s analysts said they expected OPEC+ to keep the lid on production to support prices. Meanwhile, prices fell earlier today, reversing gains made on Monday after a report saying OPEC+ was considering additional production cuts to push prices higher. Despite these plans, traders appear focused on demand uncertainty once again.

The oil market continued to retrace last week’s losses on Monday - The oil market continued to retrace last week’s losses on Monday as the market looked ahead to this weekend’s OPEC meeting scheduled for November 26th. The market traded higher in follow through strength seen on Friday after OPEC+ source said that the producer group is set to consider whether to make additional supply cuts at its meeting. The crude market opened at its low of $75.65 and continued on its upward trend, reversing most of its recent sell off. The market extended its gains to over $2.30 as it posted a high of $78.22 in afternoon trading. The December crude contract erased some of its sharp gains ahead of its expiration at the close and went off the board up $1.71 at $77.60. The January WTI contract settled up $1.79 at $77.83, while the January Brent contract settled up $1.71 at $82.32. The product markets ended the session higher, with the heating oil market settling up 7.70 cents at $2.8495 and the RB market settling up 4.15 cents at $2.2260. JP Morgan said “World oil demand is on pace to grow a solid 1.9 million bpd in 2023. It sees world oil demand increasing by 1.6 million bpd in 2024. Goldman Sachs said “Our statistical model of OPEC decisions suggests that deeper cuts should not be ruled out given the fall in speculative positioning and in timespreads, and higher-than-expected inventories.” It said its baseline forecasts is that the existing group production cuts stay fully in place in 2024. It expects that the unilateral Saudi cut of 1 million bpd will be extended through the second quarter of 2024 and reversed only gradually starting in July. The head of Japan's oil industry body said he expects OPEC+ to extend its supply curbs after December to support oil prices. Last week, three OPEC+ sources stated that OPEC+ is set to consider whether to make additional oil supply cuts when it meets on November 26th after crude prices fell by almost 20% since late September. Shunichi Kito, president of the Petroleum Association of Japan, said "At least, the current production curbs will probably continue," noting that Saudi Arabia wants to keep oil prices above $80/barrel. The U.S. Coast Guard is still trying to find the source of an oil leak estimated to have spilled 26,190 barrels of 1.1 million gallons of crude oil into the Gulf of Mexico off the coast of Louisiana. Remotely-operated vehicles continue to survey a pipeline operated by Main Pass Oil Gathering Company, close to where the spill took place, near Plaquemines Parish. The leak was first discovered five days ago on Thursday morning prompting Main Pass to shut its line that transports crude from fields in the Gulf of Mexico to the coast. IIR Energy reported that U.S. oil refiners are expected to shut in 264,000 bpd of capacity in the week ending November 24th, increasing available refining capacity by 559,000 bpd. Offline capacity is expected to fall to 29,000 bpd in the week ending December 1st.

Oil slips as traders trim bets OPEC+ will further tighten supply - Oil declined after two days of gains as traders tempered expectations that OPEC+ will intervene in the market to bolster prices, with healthy supplies and ebbing geopolitical risks also adding to the retreat. West Texas Intermediate eased less than one per cent to near US$77 a barrel after U.S. President Joe Biden said that a deal to free some Israeli hostages held by militant group Hamas is imminent. Oil rose more than six per cent in the prior two sessions on speculation that Saudi Arabia and its allies may deepen supply cuts at their next meeting on Nov. 26. U.S. oil options point to many traders increasing bets on this outcome in a bid to reverse a recent slide in prices. Between now and the weekend meeting, traders will get fresh insights into U.S. fundamentals with the release of official figures on crude and product stockpiles. Nationwide crude inventories have expanded for the past four weeks to the highest since August. There’s also a U.S. holiday that is likely to curtail trading activity in the second half of the week. An expected buildup in U.S. stockpiles, as well as the contango structure of WTI’s front-month spread, “are keeping a lid on prices,” said Dennis Kissler, senior vice president for trading at BOK Financial Securities. “But its mostly a choppy trade until we see what OPEC+ is going to do.” Indications that non-OPEC crude supplies are expanding have buffeted prices in recent weeks, with the gains in production offsetting the impact of collective and voluntary reductions agreed by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, including Russia. Crude exports from the latter fell to a three month-low ahead of the meeting. In the Middle East, Iran-backed Houthi rebels seized an Israeli-owned ship in the Red Sea in retaliation for the war in Gaza, raising fears over potential disruption in one of the world’s busiest shipping conduits. Still, the market was more reactive to Hamas — designated a terrorist organization by the U.S. and European Union — saying it was close to reaching a “truce agreement” in talks with Qatar and Israel, a sign that hostage negotiations are progressing. WTI for January delivery eased 0.7 per cent to $77.28 a barrel at 12:03 p.m. in New York. Brent for January settlement fell 0.6 per cent to $81.84 a barrel.

Oil Holds Losses After EIA Confirms Large Crude Build -- New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) oil futures eroded further in post-inventory trading Wednesday after federal data showed commercial crude oil inventories in the United States increased for the fifth consecutive week through Nov. 17. Gasoline stocks unexpectedly built as demand for transportation fuel dropped well below 9 million barrels per day (bpd) despite forecasts for a pick-up in holiday travel for the Thanksgiving weekend. U.S. gasoline consumption dropped back to the lowest level since late September, falling 469,000 bpd or 5% from the previous week to 8.480 million bpd, according to data released midmorning by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). Gasoline demand is currently running some 4% below the five-year average despite the American Automobile Association projecting this holiday season will see the third-highest Thanksgiving travel since it began collecting the data in 2000. Further details of the EIA report showed nationwide gasoline stockpiles rose by 700,000 barrels (bbl) to 216.4 million bbl, some 2% below the five-year average. Analysts had expected a 600,000 bbl draw. Distillate stocks, meanwhile, decreased by 1 million bbl in the reviewed week to 105.6 million bbl against expectations of a 600,000 bbl draw. Distillate stocks were 13% below their five-year average, according to EIA said. In the crude complex, commercial stockpiles once again rose by a larger-than-expected margin last week, up 8.7 million bbl to 448.1 million bbl, and remained 1% below the seasonal five-year average. The larger-than-expected build follows a massive 17.5 million bbl increase in commercial stockpiles over the past two weeks. Oil stored at Cushing, Oklahoma, farm tanks, the delivery point for West Texas Intermediate (WTI), rose by 900,000 bbl to 25.9 million bbl. U.S. crude oil production remained unchanged at 13.2 million bpd for the fifth consecutive week, topping the previous weekly high of 13.1 million bpd set during the week ended March 13, 2020. The refinery run rate increased 0.9% from the previous week to 87% of capacity compared with expectations for a 0.8% increase. Domestic refiners processed 15.5 million bpd of crude oil in the reviewed week, 106,000 bpd more compared to the prior week's average. Near 11:45 a.m. ET, January West Texas Intermediate futures declined $3.30 to $74.76 bbl and December ULSD futures fell $0.0449 to $2.8800 gallon. December RBOB futures shed $0.0734 gallon to $2.1604 gallon.

Oil futures fell Friday, dropping for a fifth straight week as investors awaited a delayed meeting of OPEC+ members next week. West Texas Intermediate crude for January delivery CL.1 CL00 CLF24, the U.S. benchmark, fell $1.56, or 2%, from Wednesday's close to finish at $75.54 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. WTI futures didn't settle Thursday due to the U.S. Thanksgiving Day holiday.January Brent crude BRNF24, the global benchmark, dropped 84 cents, or 1%, to end at $80.48 a barrel on ICE Futures Europe. December gasoline RBZ23 fell 3% to close at $2.165 a gallon, while December heating oil HOZ23 lost 1.9% to settle at $2.836 a gallon.December natural gas NGZ23 dropped 1.5% to $2855 per million British thermal units. The decline left WTI with a 0.7% weekly loss, while Brent lost less than 0.1%. It was the fifth straight weekly decline for both benchmarks based on front-month contracts, according to Dow Jones Market Data. Oil futures remained under pressure after a Wednesday tumble that came after the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies -- known as OPEC+ -- postponed a meeting that had been set for Sunday until Nov. 30. The delay came as OPEC members Angola and Nigeria pushed to be allowed higher output levels, news reports said, easing fears of a deeper rift that could threaten the continuation of production cuts into next year, including a 1 million barrel-a-day reduction by Saudi Arabia. The delay pushed oil futures down on Wednesday, with Brent dipping below $80 a barrel. "The key point is that the meeting's postponement was not due to a change of heart by Saudi Arabia. In other words, the kingdom still appears willing to shoulder the lion's share of the supply cut needed to stabilize the oil market," Barbara Lambrecht, commodity analyst at Commerzbank, said in a note. "It therefore seems more or less certain once again that it will continue its voluntary production cut in the first quarter, especially as the brief price slide revealed that significant price losses would otherwise be on the cards," she said. "The only question is whether the cartel will be able to agree on any cuts that go beyond this."

Oil group OPEC and its allies delay policy-setting meeting by four daysMeetings of the influential Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, collectively known as OPEC+, have been rescheduled from Nov. 25-26 to Nov. 30, sending prices down by over $3 per barrel in Thursday intraday trade. The Ice Brent contract with January delivery was trading at $79.05 per barrel at 13:50 London time, down by $3.40 per barrel. The Nymex WTI contract with January expiry was at $74.40 per barrel, down by $3.37 per barrel. The OPEC Secretariat, which made the announcement, did not disclose the reason for the postponement. It was not immediately clear whether the OPEC+ group would be holding a virtual or in-person meeting on Thursday, or whether ministers would still adjourn at the OPEC secretarial headquarters in Vienna. The new date of the OPEC+ meetings coincides with the first day of the Conference of the Parties climate summit (COP28) in Dubai and represents a key event for both the host United Arab Emirates — the third-largest OPEC producer — and for other Arab energy providers that are tackling the green transition. Earlier in the day, Bloomberg News issued a report saying the meeting of Sunday could be delayed amid Saudi dissatisfaction over the oil production levels of some countries. A senior OPEC+ delegate, who asked for anonymity because of the sensitivity of the discussion, agreed with the premise, with reference to the compliance levels of some alliance member countries with their respective output pledges. Saudi Arabia is itself enforcing a 1 million barrel-per-day voluntary production decline until the end of this year, alongside contributing to a separate spate of voluntary output cuts from several OPEC+ members that totals 1.66 million barrels per day and will stretch until the end of next year. The upcoming meeting faced a challenging market environment, defined by depressed oil prices, a slower-than-expected Chinese demand recovery and petropolitics amid conflict in the Middle East. High interest rates and banking turmoil largely slumped oil prices in the first half of the year, before a sharp boost from several voluntary supply declines announced independently of OPEC+ strategy. Several OPEC+ members pledged to reduce output by a total of 1.66 million barrels per day until the end of 2024, with Saudi Arabia and Russia topping that with additional respective supply drops of 1 million barrels per day and 300,000 barrels per day until the end of this year. Prices briefly surpassed $90 per barrel, but have since withdrawn amid a fainter-than-expected recovery in China — the world’s largest crude importer — and resurging tensions in the Middle East. Prior to the meeting postponement, two OPEC+ delegates, who could only speak under condition of anonymity, faulted the recent price pressures on liquidations in the future markets amid geopolitical risks, with a third attributing market concerns less to supply-demand fundamentals than to global politics, including developments in Israel. The OPEC+ alliance, including chairman and Saudi energy minister Abdulaziz bin Salman, have been previously frustrated by a perceived disconnect between supply-demand and prices. Famously, the Saudi prince has been at war with market speculators, warning they would “ouch” and should “watch out” in May. One of the three delegate sources said that the OPEC+ group would have to make an announcement to “support the market” at its upcoming meeting, with a fourth delegate also suggesting cuts could be discussed. The alliance will also discuss baselines — the level from which quotas are determined and a frequent subject of contention — for certain countries, the last source said. A fifth delegate meanwhile assessed it is unlikely that the coalition will change its production policy, given uncertainty in the outlook for flows from Iran and Venezuela, where the U.S. has signaled tightening and easing its oil sanctions, respectively.

Oil prices fall for 5th straight week as traders look ahead to delayed OPEC+ meeting - Oil futures fell Friday, dropping for a fifth straight week as investors awaited a delayed meeting of OPEC+ members next week. West Texas Intermediate crude for January delivery CL.1 CL00 CLF24, the U.S. benchmark, fell $1.56, or 2%, from Wednesday's close to finish at $75.54 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. WTI futures didn't settle Thursday due to the U.S. Thanksgiving Day holiday.January Brent crude BRNF24, the global benchmark, dropped 84 cents, or 1%, to end at $80.48 a barrel on ICE Futures Europe. December gasoline RBZ23 fell 3% to close at $2.165 a gallon, while December heating oil HOZ23 lost 1.9% to settle at $2.836 a gallon.December natural gas NGZ23 dropped 1.5% to $2855 per million British thermal units. The decline left WTI with a 0.7% weekly loss, while Brent lost less than 0.1%. It was the fifth straight weekly decline for both benchmarks based on front-month contracts, according to Dow Jones Market Data. Oil futures remained under pressure after a Wednesday tumble that came after the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies -- known as OPEC+ -- postponed a meeting that had been set for Sunday until Nov. 30. The delay came as OPEC members Angola and Nigeria pushed to be allowed higher output levels, news reports said, easing fears of a deeper rift that could threaten the continuation of production cuts into next year, including a 1 million barrel-a-day reduction by Saudi Arabia. The delay pushed oil futures down on Wednesday, with Brent dipping below $80 a barrel. "The key point is that the meeting's postponement was not due to a change of heart by Saudi Arabia. In other words, the kingdom still appears willing to shoulder the lion's share of the supply cut needed to stabilize the oil market," Barbara Lambrecht, commodity analyst at Commerzbank, said in a note. "It therefore seems more or less certain once again that it will continue its voluntary production cut in the first quarter, especially as the brief price slide revealed that significant price losses would otherwise be on the cards," she said. "The only question is whether the cartel will be able to agree on any cuts that go beyond this."

Oil Markets Eagerly Awaiting Sunday OPEC+ Meeting --Oil markets are eagerly awaiting the OPEC+ meeting on November 26 in anticipation of what kingpin Saudi Arabia decides over its voluntary crude oil production cuts of one million barrels per day. That’s what Rystad Energy Senior Vice President Jorge Leon stated in an oil market update sent to Rigzone this week, adding that, “regardless of the path they take, Saudi Arabia’s decision on the production cuts will ultimately shape the short-term future of global oil prices”. “The kingdom is balancing the desire to keep prices high by limiting supply with the knowledge that doing so will lead to a further drop in overall market share,” Leon said in the update. “Crude prices have experienced significant downward pressure in recent weeks, with prices fell below $80 per barrel last week after a dramatic sell-off driven by oversupply concerns,” he added. “This recent nosedive could be an indicator of what’s to come at the OPEC meeting, as the Saudis have repeatedly demonstrated that their price floor is above $80 per barrel,” he continued. Leon noted in the update that the main topic of the 36th OPEC and non-OPEC Ministerial Meeting on Sunday will be confirmation of production quotas next year, which he pointed out were drafted in the group’s June meeting. “Saudi Arabia announced its voluntary cuts on the sidelines of that meeting, initially committing to a one million barrel per day output cut for July,” Leon said in the update. “This was then extended on a monthly basis into August and September, while in early September, Riyadh announced the extension until the end of this year,” he added. “Oil markets will be looking to see if Saudi Arabia extends these cuts into 2024 or if it chooses to gradually unwind them or simply let them expire at the end of this year. Whichever way it goes, Saudi Arabia’s decision will have significant implications for oil markets and, in particular, for the oil price next year,” Leon went on to state. In the update, Leon revealed that Rystad has run five scenarios on Saudi production policy for the next few months and estimated the impact they would have on oil prices. Rystad expects the average oil price to hit $82 per barrel next year in a scenario where the Saudi voluntary cuts are not extended into 2024, the update outlined. The company expects the average oil price to be $84 per barrel in 2024 in a scenario where Saudi Arabia fully unwinds the voluntary cuts by April and $87 per barrel in a scenario where the Saudis unwind voluntary cuts gradually until June, the update revealed. Rystad anticipates that the oil price will average $92 per barrel in 2024 in a scenario where Saudi Arabia extends the one million barrel per day voluntary cuts into January and February, and gradually unwinds them until July, and $96 per barrel in a scenario where the Saudis extend the cuts until April and gradually unwind them until August, according to the update.

U.S. crude oil tumbles below $75 a barrel after OPEC delays meeting - U.S. crude prices declined Wednesday after the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries delayed a pivotal meeting on production cuts that was scheduled for the weekend. The West Texas Intermediate contract for January fell about 5% to $73.85 a barrel in the morning, but clawed back most of those losses. U.S. crude ultimately settled at $77.10 a barrel, down 67 cents or .86%. The Brent contract for January fell 49 cents, or .59%, to settle at $81.96 a barrel. OPEC said in a statement that the meeting of energy ministers is delayed until next Thursday. The organization did not provide a reason, but Saudi Arabia is struggling to convince Angola and Nigeria to accept lower output targets, delegates told Bloomberg. There was growing anticipation among traders that OPEC and its allies, called OPEC+, might implement additional production cuts, which pushed prices higher late last week and early this week. But compliance is a major challenge for OPEC+ because many countries have an incentive to not stick with their production quotas, said Tamas Varga, an analyst with PVM Oil Associates. “Compliance will be weak going forward,” Varga said. He pointed to Russia in particular, which needs to finance its war in Ukraine Oil prices have fallen precipitously from September highs as record non-OPEC production collides with demand concerns in China, where exports have fallen six months in a row. “It’s undermining the Saudi efforts to get the price really back to $100 a barrel plus,” John Kilduff, an oil analyst at Again Capital, told CNBC’s “Power Lunch” Wednesday. U.S. data underlined that picture on Wednesday. Crude production stands at an estimated 13.2 million barrels per day, a record level and 1.1 million bpd higher than the same period last year, according to data released by the Energy Information Agency. Domestic crude inventories, excluding the strategic reserve, increased by 8.7 million barrels for the week ending Nov. 17. Meanwhile, finished gasoline supplied declined by 469,000 barrels from the prior weak, implying softening demand in the U.S. Kilduff said U.S. crude could test $70 a barrel and possibly drop to the low $60-a-barrel range, particularly if there’s a mild winter in the northern hemisphere.

Yemen's Houthis Seize Israeli-Linked Ship in the Red Sea - Yemen’s Houthis have seized an Israeli-linked ship in the Red Sea after vowing to target Israeli vessels in the region over Israel’s onslaught in Gaza.The Houthis forces seized the Bahamas-flagged Galaxy Leader, a car carrier that’s owned by Ray Car Carriers, a shipping firm that was founded by Israeli shipping mogul Abraham “Rami” Ungar. Ray Car Carriers, which is based in the Isle of Man, is still believed to be owned by Ungar, at least partially.Israeli officials are insisting that the ship is not Israeli because it’s British-owned and currently operated by a Japanese company. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s office said 25 crewmembers had been taken hostage by the Houthis and that no Israelis were onboard.Lebanon’s Al Mayadeen reported on the ship s eizure and put the number of crew members higher, saying 52 people were detained by the Houthis. According to AP, the Houthis said they were treating the crew members “in accordance with their Islamic values.”The Houthis also said that “all ships belonging to the Israeli enemy or that deal with it will become legitimate targets.”The Houthis, formally known as Ansar Allah, have been firing missiles and drones at Israel over the Israeli assault on Gaza. T he Houthis have also recently downed an American MQ-9 Reaper drone that was flying near Yemen and is believed to have fired a drone at a US warship in the Red Sea.The US has been at war with the Houthis since 2015 by backing a Saudi-UAE coalition against them, which has included helping enforce a blockade on Yemen. A ceasefire between the Saudis and the Houthis has held relatively well since April 2022, but no lasting peace deal has been signed.

Houthis Release Dramatic Video Of Ship Hijacking - Promise "This Is The Beginning" -- Yemen's Houthi rebels have released dramatic video of their Sunday hijacking of the Galaxy Leader, a vehicle-transport ship whose owner is a subsidiary of a company owned by an Israeli billionaire. The ship is still in their control, with 25 crew members of various nationalities held hostage and the vessel now in the Yemeni port of Hodeidah. The Red Sea incident received surprisingly little initial coverage by major media, considering it marked the opening of a new, maritime front in the multilateral regional conflict that erupted on Oct 7, when Palestinian Hamas militants invaded southern Lebanon, killing more than a thousand Israeli civilians and soldiers. The Iran-aligned Houthis, who've been battling Yemen's Saudi-backed government since 2014, had already launched multiple drone and missile attacks on Israel in solidarity with Hamas and the people of Gaza. In announcing their seizure of the Galaxy Leader, the group said, “All ships belonging to the Israeli enemy or that deal with it will become legitimate targets.” “The detention of the Israeli ship is a practical step that proves the seriousness of the Yemeni armed forces in waging the sea battle, regardless of its costs and costs,” said Houthi chief negotiator Mohammed Abdul-Salam in a separate online statement. “This is the beginning.” About a fifth of the world's oil must traverse the narrow strait between Yemen and Djibouti.The professionally-produced, nearly four-minute Houthi video appears to have been shot from multiple cameras in the air and on the sea, including one mounted on the tail of a helicopter used to airlift the attackers onto the ship and others worn by the militants in action. It first shows a helicopter pursuing the 600-foot ship as it plows through the sea. Houthis then dismount the chopper atop the ship's deck, fire AK-47 rifles and make their way to the ship's bridge, where crew members surrender to them. In the final shot, the ship moving through the water, surrounded by several small watercraft.

US Warship Downs Several Attack Drones In Red Sea As Hijacked Vessel Standoff Continues -On Thursday morning the USS Thomas Hudner, an Arleigh Burke-class destroyer, intercepted more attack drones fired from Yemen while patrolling waters in the Red Sea."On the morning (Yemen time) of November 23, the USS Thomas Hudner (DDG 116) shot down multiple one-way attack drones launched from Houthi controlled areas in Yemen," CENTCOM announced on X."The drones were shot down while the U.S. warship was on patrol in the Red Sea," the statement continued, noting that there was no damage to the ship or casualties among the crew. "The ship and crew sustained no damage or injury," according to CENTCOM. The wording of the statement suggests the drones may have been targeting the US warship. The Houthis have already on several occasions launched missiles and drones on southern Israel. US warships have intercepted the projectiles at least three times at this point. Both Washington and Israel see that it is Iran ultimately behind Houthi actions. Tehran has also long supplied the Shia Houthis with advanced rockets and drones, part of the broader regional proxy war against the US-Saudi-Gulf axis. An Israel-Hamas temporary ceasefire and hostage release is expected to go into effect Friday. It remains unclear the extent to which the Houthis and Lebanese Hezbollah will also abide by the Qatar-brokered ceasefire. Tensions have increased in the Red Sea and Persian Gulf areas on fears that Iran-backed groups could escalate attacks on shipping. The Houthis days ago seized an Israeli-linked shipping vessel and are holding the 25 international crew members hostage. This has served to divert some commercial ship traffic:

US embarks on proxy war against Iran -A massive US naval deployment in a wide arc of the so-called Greater Middle East is under way — stretching from Crete in the Eastern Mediterranean, into the Red Sea and the Bab el Mandeb and into the Gulf of Aden and all the way into the Gulf of Oman. This deterrent display may transform as large scale offensive operations and aims to rework the geopolitical alignments and bring them back to the traditional grooves of intra-regional rivalries in the Gulf region.Ship spotters first said that as of Thursday, the aircraft carrier USSDwight D. Eisenhower and its escorts were sailing just outside the Strait of Hormuz in the Gulf of Oman, and were approaching the Persian Gulf. A Pentagon official confirmed the location but would not say whether the carrier will enter the Persian Gulf passing through the Strait of Hormuz.The US naval build-up in the region consists of another carrier strike group as well — USS Ford and its escorts — which last week moved away from Israeli coast and is now re-positioned to the south of Crete, according to ship spotters, apparently beyond the missile reach of Lebanon’s Hezbollah.Apart from the two carrier strike groups, the US deployment also includes a three-ship Bataan Amphibious Ready Group with the 26th Marine Expeditionary Unit and several guided-missile destroyers — USS Bataan and USS Carter Hall operating in the northern portion of the Red Sea, and USS Mesa Verde in the Eastern Mediterranean along with the command ship USS Mount Whitney.Additionally, there are some number of US attack submarines in the region, but the Pentagon does not typically disclose their locations — except for a rare disclosure recently by the US Central Command of the transit on November 5 of nuclear guided-missile submarine USSFlorida to the east of Suez.The most obvious explanation for such a formidable naval buildup is that it is part of the US effort to keep the current conflict in southern Israel and Gaza contained. Hezbollah continues to fire rockets and anti-tank missiles into Israel from Lebanon; Iran-backed Shia militant groups are attacking US bases in Iraq and Syria; and Houthi rebels in Yemen are firing missiles towards Israel. During the period since October 17, there have been at least 58 attacks on US bases, mostly in Iraq.The hardline opinion in the US is that the militant groups attacking the US forces are acting at Iran’s behest. This allegation is an old US-Israeli bogey and keeps surging whenever Iran is in the crosshairs and/or there is requirement of a blame game. Expert opinion, including in the US, has always been wary of it.

Iran Tells US It Doesn't Want Gaza War to Escalate Into Regional Conflict - Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian has said that Tehran expressed to the US through back channels that it does not want the Gaza war to escalate into a regional conflict while also warning escalation was inevitable if Israel didn’t stop its campaign. “Over the past 40 days, messages have been exchanged between Iran and the US, via the US interests section at the Swiss embassy in Tehran,” Amirabdollahian said in an interview with Financial Times published on Friday.“In response to the US, we said that Iran does not want the war to spread, but due to the approach adopted by the US and Israel in the region, if the crimes against the people of Gaza and the West Bank are not stopped, any possibility could be considered, and a wider conflict could prove inevitable,” he added.The US has blamed Iran for attacks on US troops in Iraq and Syria that started in October due to President Biden’s support for the Israeli assault on Gaza, but Tehran has said it’s not responsible, and the US has never produced evidence to show Iran is directing the attacks.Amirabdollahian said that the Shia militias in Iraq and Syria that are believed to be responsible for the attacks on US bases are not Iranian proxies. He said the same of Hezbollah, other Palestinian militants, and the Houthis in Yemen, according to Financial Times. But he warned the groups “are not indifferent towards the killing of their Muslim and Arab peers in Palestine.”Amirabdollahian said the war had already “expanded in the region,” citing Houthis attacks on Israel and the fighting between Hezbollah and Israeli forces that continues to escalate. The US has deployed an enormous amount of firepower to the Middle East in the name of “deterring” regional actors from escalating against Israel, but Amirabdollahian said the US has not threatened to target Iran directly if Hezbollah launched an all-out assault on Israel.In response to the attacks against US bases, the US has launched three rounds of airstrikes targeting facilities the Pentagon claimed were used by Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and affiliated groups. Amirabdollahian said “no Iranian forces were struck” in the US airstrikes. He said one of the facilities was previously used by Iranian “military advisers in the fight against terrorists, but that place was empty of any Iranian forces or supplies at the time of the attack.”

US AC-130 Gunship Launches Strikes in Iraq, Casualties Reported - US Central Command (CENTCOM) said Tuesday that a US AC-130 gunship launched strikes in Iraq against people allegedly responsible for an earlier missile attack on the Ain al-Asad airbase in western Iraq, which houses US troops.The Pentagon said eight US troops were wounded when Ain al-Asad airbase was targeted with a “short-range ballistic missile” and that the AC-130 responded “immediately.”CENTCOM said the AC-130 strikes strike resulted in “several enemy casualties.” A US official later told The War Zone that the strikes killed at least one member of Kataib Hezbollah, an Iraqi Shia militia.According to AFP, the AC-130 struck a vehicle in Abu Ghraib, once the site of the notorious American torture prison. AC-130 gunships are armed with various types of heavy weapons, including 105mm howitzers.The US airstrikes in Iraq risk significantly escalating attacks on US forces in the region. As of Monday, US troops in Iraq and Syria have come under attack at least 61 times since October 17 due to President Biden’s full-throated support for the Israeli onslaught in Gaza. The US has launched three rounds of airstrikes in eastern Syria against Shia militias believed to be responsible for the attacks. The incident on Tuesday marked the first US strikes in Iraq since the attacks on US bases started last month.The Washington Post reported over the weekend that the Pentagon was aware launching strikes in Iraq could “exacerbate anti-American sentiment” in the country. Many elements in Iraqi politics oppose the US presence, which consists of about 2,500 troops, and the direct US strikes could spark fresh protests.

US Launches Second Round of Airstrikes in Iraq - US warplanes hit targets in Iraq early Wednesday morning, marking the second round of US airstrikes in the country in just over 24 hours as the situation in the region continues to escalate.Pentagon officials said the airstrikes hit two facilities south of Baghdad used by Kataib Hezbollah, an Iraqi Shia militia aligned with Iran. Officials said it was too early to provide information about casualties.The strikes came after a US AC-130 gunship targeted people in Iraq the Pentagon said was responsible for a ballistic missile attack on the Ain al-Asad airbase west of Baghdad. US officials said the AC-130 strikes killed three militants.The attack on the Ain al-Asad airbase wounded at least eight US troops. According to the Pentagon, US forces in Iraq and Syria have come under attack 66 times since October 17 due to President Biden’s support for Israel’s onslaught on Gaza.The US had previously launched three rounds of airstrikes in eastern Syria, but the AC-130 strikes marked the first US bombing of Iraq since October 7. The US attacks on Iraq risk a significant escalation as many elements inside the country are opposed to the US presence, not just the Iran-aligned faction.The Washington Post reported over the weekend that the Pentagon was aware launching strikes in Iraq could “exacerbate anti-American sentiment” in the country. Iraq’s parliament voted to expel US troops back in 2020 after the US drone strike that killed Iranian Gen. Qassem Soleimani and Iraqi militia leader Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis. Iraqi prime ministers have been under pressure to expel foreign troops ever since 2020. In an effort to placate anti-US factions, the US formally changed its presence in Iraq from a combat role to an advisory role in December 2021. But the US did not withdraw any troops at the time and still has 2,500 in the country today.

'Dangerous Escalation': Iraqi Government Condemns US Airstrikes - The Iraqi government on Wednesday condemned deadly U.S. airstrikes south of Baghdad as "a clear violation of sovereignty" that risks escalating regional tensions amid Israel's assault on the Gaza Strip.The Pentagon said the U.S. strikes targeted two facilities used by Kataib Hezbollah, an Iraqi militia group that the U.S. considers an Iranian proxy. The group, which the U.S. has accused of carrying out an attack on American forces at Iraq's al-Asad Airbase, said eight of its fighters were killed in the early Wednesday strikes and pledged to retaliate.Bassem al-Awadi, a spokesperson for Iraq's government, said the U.S. launched the strikes without any coordination with Iraqi officials, a decision that he called "a dangerous escalation" and "an attempt to disrupt the stable internal security situation."Al-Awadi also denounced "any armed action or activity outside the military institution is deemed condemnable and an unlawful endeavor that jeopardizes the national interest," an apparent reference to militia attacks on U.S. forces in Iraq.The U.S. airstrikes came just over 24 hours after an American gunshiplaunched an attack on what the Pentagon described as "an Iranian-backed militia vehicle and a number of Iranian-backed militia personnel" in Iraq, purportedly targeting militants who were involved in a ballistic missile strike on U.S. forces.The missile attack "resulted in non-serious injuries to U.S. and coalition forces, as well as minor damage to infrastructure on the installation," the Pentagon said.

Iraqi Government 'Vehemently' Condemns US Airstrikes as Violation of Sovereignty - Iraq’s government on Wednesday blasted US airstrikes launched in the country against Shia militias, calling them a violation of Iraqi sovereignty.“We vehemently condemn the attack on Jurf al-Nasr, executed without the knowledge of Iraqi government agencies,” said Iraqi government spokesman Basem al-Awadi.“This action is a blatant violation of sovereignty and an attempt to destabilize the security situation,” al-Awadi added.The statement came after the US military announced it launched airstrikes early Wednesday against facilities south of Baghdad used by Kataib Hezbollah, a Shia militia that’s aligned with Iran. Iraq’s Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF), an umbrella group of Shia militias that formed in 2014 to fight ISIS, said eight of its fighters were killed in the US strikes.About 24 hours earlier, a US AC-130 Gunship launched airstrikes against individuals the US claims were responsible for a ballistic missile attack on the Ain al-Asad airbase, which hosts US troops. US officials said the AC-130 killed three militants.The AC-130 strikes were the first the US launched in Iraq since US troops in Iraq and Syria started coming under attack due to President Biden’s support for Israel’s onslaught in Gaza. According to the Pentagon, US troops have come under attack 66 times in Iraq and Syria since October 17.The US previously launched three rounds of airstrikes in eastern Syria. Over the weekend, The Washington Post reported that the Pentagon was aware launching strikes in Iraq could “exacerbate anti-American sentiment” in the country. The US has 2,500 troops in Iraq, a presence many elements in Iraq strongly oppose. The Iraqi government said the airstrikes violated the agreement the US has with Baghdad to keep troops in the country.“The recent incident represents a clear violation of the coalition’s mission to combat [ISIS] on Iraqi soil,” the statement said. The government also condemned the frequent attacks on US troops and said it was the only authority that could punish the perpetrators.“The Iraqi government is solely dedicated to enforcing the law and holding violators accountable, a prerogative exclusively within its purview. No party or foreign agency has the right to assume this role, as it contradicts Iraqi constitutional sovereignty and international law,” the statement said.

Pending global threats from the Israel-Hamas war that are not being aired in Western media just yet Gilbert Doctorow -- During my interview yesterday morning with WION, India’s premier English-language global news service, I was given the opportunity to expand upon the latest development in the southern sector of the Red Sea, namely the seizure by a Houthi (Yemen) attack force of a merchant vessel partly owned by Israelis. As I commented, Russian news tells us that the capabilities of Yemen to create havoc with global shipping through the Suez Canal and Red Sea are vastly underappreciated and underreported at present. Despite its figuring in world news these past several years for a murderous civil war fed by the Saudis, and besides its being considered the poorest nation among the Arab countries of the Middle East, Yemen has a 30 million population and, according to Russia, a very strong arsenal of ship-sinking missiles with 2,000 km range that they themselves manufacture. If there is no other lever to stop the Israeli rampage, it is certainly credible that the Yemenis will attack global shipping routes. See https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rr5ezHclil4 In short, war today is not what it used to be just a couple of decades ago. Hamas, with a military budget of perhaps 80 million euros annually and Hezbollah with a budget just several times greater can pose a grave threat to Israeli armor with improvised drones dropping mines on tanks and personnel carriers and to its civil infrastructure using their missiles. Now Yemen enters the fray with a capability of disrupting global logistics.Twenty years ago when Bush, Jr unleashed his War on Terror, all the talk of global security experts was about the threat to the status quo posed by “non-state actors” operating with paltry funds. Now the art of war has progressed to the point where non-state actors can stand up to the mightiest high budget state armies like Israel and its 20 billion dollar war budget. The Netanyahu cabinet seems not to have taken in the significance of this change, whereas the Kremlin absorbed the lesson quickly during its war with Ukraine and is now very proficient at pursuing its objectives on the battlefield in the age of kamikaze and reconnaissance drones.

Gaza Health Officials Say They've Lost the Ability to Count the Dead - Health officials in Gaza have told The Associated Press that it’s become impossible to count the dead due to a breakdown of communications and the presence of Israeli forces on the ground in northern Gaza.The last official update from the Health Ministry based in Gaza was released on November 10, putting the figure at 11,078. Al Jazeera reported on Tuesday that according to Gaza’s media office, the current death toll is somewhere over 13,300, including over 5,600 children, but the number is not confirmed.“Unfortunately, the Ministry of Health has not yet been able to issue its statistics because there is a breakdown in communication between hospitals and disruption to the internet,” said Gaza’s Health Ministry spokesman Ashraf al-Qidra. He added that the electronic database used to count the dead “is no longer able to count the names and tally the statistics.”President Biden previously accused Gaza’s Health Ministry of lying about the death toll, but a State Department official later said that their numbers are likely low estimates, and that was before communications entirely broke down. The UN and aid groups that work on the ground in Gaza have also said the Health Ministry is considered reliable.Gaza’s Health Ministry would release death toll numbers based on the number of dead bodies recorded at hospitals and morgues, a meticulous process. After Biden questioned the numbers, the Health Ministry released the names and ages of all the dead Palestinians it had counted up to that point.The death toll was considered low before because it didn’t take into account the bodies stuck under the rubble, a problem that has worsened. According to AP, Palestinian medics say, “It’s far too dangerous now to recover the untold scores of dead bodies in Gaza City, where Israeli bulldozers have blocked streets and tanks fire at anything in their path.”Health Ministry officials believe the death toll has risen significantly since November 10 based on doctors’ estimates and people reporting missing family members. “People are thrown in the streets. They’re under the rubble. Who can count the bodies and release the death toll in a press conference?” said Health Ministry official Mehdat Abbas.

Xi Urges Immediate Gaza Ceasefire In BRICS Meeting, As Beijing Hosts Summit Of Muslim Nations - Chinese President Xi Jinping, Russian President Vladimir Putin, and other leaders joined United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres for an 'extraordinary' meeting of the BRICS bloc of developing countries to discuss the Israel-Hamas war Tuesday. Leaders of Brazil, India and South Africa were present for the virtual meeting along with countries which are set to soon join BRICS (in January), including Saudi Arabia, Argentina, Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran and the United Arab Emirates. During Xi's address, he urged an immediate Gaza ceasefire toward realizing "lasting peace and security," according to Xinhua. He further asserted in the virtual remarks that without a "just settlement" on the Palestinian question, there will remain "no enduring peace and stability in the Middle East."He called for all parties to immediately agree to ceasefire and stop all violence, including attacks which target civilians. Xi additionally said that all civilian detainees must be released to "avoid more loss of lives and suffering." Xi further emphasized China's desire to ultimately see a two-state solution provide a lasting peace.According to more from a summary of Xi's remarks:"China will provide more support and assistance to the people in Gaza, and is calling for humanitarian corridors to protect civilians. The root cause of the Palestine-Israel crisis is that the right to existence and the right of return of Palestinian people have long been ignored."China's foreign ministry the day prior echoed the same, with FM Wang Yi saying the world "must act urgently" in Gaza and establish a ceasefire. "The international community must act urgently, taking effective measures to prevent this tragedy from spreading. China firmly stands with justice and fairness in this conflict."He made the remarks while greeting visiting leaders of Arab and Muslim majority nations who gathered in Beijing. This included the top diplomats of Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Egypt, the Palestinian National Authority, and Indonesia. The Organization of Islamic Cooperation is also represented for the two-day meeting in Beijing.

Israeli government meets to decide on deal for Hamas to free some hostages (Reuters) - Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Tuesday asked his government to accept a deal for Palestinian Hamas militants to free some hostages in Gaza in exchange for a multi-day truce even as the death of a hostage in captivity was announced. Officials from Qatar, which has been mediating negotiations, as well as the U.S., Israel and Hamas have for days been saying a deal was imminent. Before gathering with his full government, Netanyahu met on Tuesday with his war cabinet and wider national security cabinet over the deal. Hamas is believed to be holding more than 200 hostages, taken when its fighters surged into Israel on Oct. 7, killing 1,200 people, according to Israeli tallies. The Israeli prime minister said the intervention of U.S. President Joe Biden had helped to improve the deal so that it included more hostages for fewer concessions. But Netanyahu said Israel's broader mission had not changed. "We are at war and we will continue the war until we achieve all our goals. To destroy Hamas, return all our hostages and ensure that nobody in Gaza can threaten Israel," he said in a recorded message at the start of the latest government meeting. If agreed, the accord would see the first truce of a war in which Israeli bombardments have flattened swathes of Hamas-ruled Gaza, killed 13,300 civilians in the tiny densely populated enclave and left about two-thirds of its 2.3 million people homeless, according to authorities in Gaza. A U.S. official briefed on the discussions said the deal would include 50 hostages taken from Israel, mostly women and children, in exchange for 150 Palestinian prisoners and a pause in the fighting of four or five days. The pause would facilitate delivery of humanitarian aid to Gaza.

Israeli Cabinet Approves Hostage Deal With Hamas -The Israeli cabinet voted early Wednesday morning to approve a Qatar-brokered hostage deal with Hamas that will free at least 50 Israelis in exchange for a four-day ceasefire and other steps.According to Axios, the first phase of the deal will involve Hamas releasing about 50 Israeli women and children, while Israel is expected to release about 150 Palestinian women and children. The releases will take place during the four-day pause.Israel will also allow 300 aid trucks per day to enter Gaza from Egypt during the pause and for some fuel to be delivered. In a potential second phase of the deal, Hamas could release dozens of more hostages in exchange for an extension of the ceasefire by several days.An Israeli official said that over the next 24 hours, the names of the Palestinian prisoners who will be released will be made public. This will be done to give Israelis the opportunity to appeal their release, signaling their freedom is not guaranteed.The deal with Hamas received support from most ministers within the Israeli government except three members of the extremist Jewish Power Party. Ahead of the cabinet vote, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu vowed the war would continue after the short ceasefire.“We are at war, and we will continue the war,” Netanyahu said. “We will continue until we achieve all our goals.”Israel and Hamas had been negotiating through Qatar for weeks, but Israel had rejected earlier proposals. Both sides signaled that a deal was close before the cabinet vote.

Israel, Hamas agree to truce, paving way for some captives’ release | Israel-Palestine conflict News | Al Jazeera --Israel and Hamas have agreed to a temporary pause in the war that will enable the release of about 50 people who have been held captive in Gaza since the Hamas armed group stormed southern Israel on October 7, in exchange for Palestinians held in Israeli jails.The Israeli cabinet backed the agreement after talks on a Qatar-mediated deal that continued into the early hours of Wednesday morning, with Israeli media reporting heated exchanges between ministers of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government.In the end, only three of the 38 members of the cabinet voted against the truce – National Security MinisterItamar Ben-Gvir and two other members of his far-right political party.The prime minister’s office said the deal would require Hamas to release at least 50 women and children during a four-day truce. For every additional 10 hostages released, the pause would be extended by a day, it said, without mentioning the release of Palestinian prisoners in exchange.“Israel’s government is committed to return all the hostages home. Tonight, it approved the proposed deal as a first stage to achieving this goal,” it said in its brief statement.Hamas, which controls Gaza, also released a statement, confirming that 50 women and children held in the territory would be freed in exchange for Israel releasing 150 Palestinian women and children from Israeli jails.It said that Israel would also stop all military actions in Gaza and that hundreds of trucks carrying humanitarian, medical and fuel aid would be allowed into the territory.

Hamas-Israel Hostage Deal Only a Pause in Destruction of Gaza - by Yves Smith - It’s no fun being a sober realist. The fact that Hamas and Israel, the latter due to substantial US pressure, have agreed to a hostage swap (limited to 50 Hamas hostages for 150 Israel hostages, all under 19) and 300 aid trucks a day over a 4 day pause means very little in the trajectory of Israel’s campaign to exterminate Palestinians in Gaza. It’s big significance is as a talking point for each side: for Biden and Israel, to make a low-cost concession and blunt global condemnation; for Hamas, to show willingness to negotiate and get disproportionate hostage exchanges. Below are the terms of the deal as Hamas understands them:300 trucks a day is only a small dent compared to the needs of the inhabitants of Gaza.It is also noteworthy that Gaza coverage on Twitter (and many other venues) dropped dramatically after the lack of fuel in Gaza resulted in loss of power and with it, Internet and cell phone service. The flow of images of the horrors in the combat zone fueled international outrage and made it difficult for Israel to defend its position in front of the wider world, not that that mattered much to its ground campaign. The US is too tethered to Israel at the hip to do much more that achieve change in conduct at the margin. Its theoretical great leverage translates into paltry practical influence due to the how Israel has built itself into a kingmaker within the Beltway and has also succeeded in branding criticism of Zionism as anti-semitism.As former ambassador Alistair Crooke pointed out in his latest interview on Judge Napolitano, Israel’s destruction of hospitals in Gaza alone makes the enclave uninhabitable. You can’t run a medical system for a large population on a long-term basis out of field hospitals. Israel was on the verge of achieving that in North Gaza.There is little reason to think Israel will stop destroying hospitals. Of course, flattening housing and wrecking infrastructure also advances the end of making Gaza uninhabitable….until it is rebuilt to suit the needs of Israel.Now admittedly, the entry of aid truck and presumably aid workers will allow for a round of new images of the state of human and habitat destruction in Gaza, so there will likely be another outrage boomlet. But unless Gaza gets enough fuel to restore electricity and the Internet on a sustained basis, Gaza will go dark again, and with it, the opportunity to document Israel’s crimes and use them to maintain and increase international pressure.The reality is the only parties that can stop the carnage are Arab/Muslim states, by attacking Israel with enough intensity to force Israel to pull substantially out of Gaza to defend other fronts. They have chosen not to and are instead engaging in a campaign of harassment (which by some accounts is escalating; it’s hard to know given disparate actions by different players). They may win the long game by weakening Israel, particularly economically. The Cradle had a must-read account of the impact as of earlier this month. Things can’t have gotten better.

Israeli Official Says Hamas Hostage Deal Delayed Until Friday - The start of a short-term ceasefire to facilitate the release of Israeli hostages in Gaza and Palestinian prisoners in Israel will not start until Friday, an Israeli official said on Wednesday.“The contacts on the release of our hostages are advancing and continuing constantly. The start of the release will take place according to the original agreement between the sides, and not before Friday,” said Israeli National Security Tzachi Hanegbi.The truce and release of hostages was initially expected to begin on Thursday after the Israeli cabinet approved the Qatar-mediated deal. According to The New York Times, some details of the agreement still need to be worked out.The broad outline of the deal involves Hamas releasing 50 Israeli women and children during a four-day pause in fighting while Israel releases 150 Palestinian women and children it has detained. Israel will also allow more aid trucks and some fuel shipments into Gaza.Initial reports said Israel agreed to allow 300 aid trucks per day to enter Gaza, but the Times said there is not yet agreement on the amount of supplies that would be allowed through. The report said Hamas and Israel still disagree about how many hostages are in Gaza, making it difficult to work out who exactly will be released.Israeli officials published the names of 300 Palestinian women and children it has in jail, a list it will narrow down to 150. The idea of making the names public is to give Israelis a chance to appeal the release of individual Palestinians.

Hamas releases 13 Israeli hostages in first day of truce -Hamas released 13 Israeli hostages Friday in the first exchange of prisoners with Israel that will take place over the next four days. The first group of hostages are now in Israel and headed home under protection from Israeli soldiers, according to military spokesperson Avichay Adraee. The hostages were first released into Egypt and then transferred to hospitals in Israel for treatment of injuries, but none were serious, according to Adraee. The hostages, who were transferred from Gaza by the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC), are expected to meet with their families soon if they have not already. The 13 Israelis were freed along with 12 Thai hostages. There were conflicting reports on whether 24 hostages were released or 25 hostages, as Thailand’s prime minister said 12 Thai citizens were released but other reports indicated 10 Thai nationals were released and one Filipino citizen. As part of the deal, Israel also released 39 Palestinian prisoners on Friday, according to a post on X, formerly Twitter, from Qatari Foreign Ministry spokesperson Majed Al Ansari. By the end of the four-day truce, Hamas has reportedly agreed to free a total of 50 hostages who were taken captive during a deadly Oct. 7 attack on southern Israel.

Israel releases 39 Palestinian prisoners under hostage deal Israel released 39 Palestinian prisoners Friday as part of the first round of exchanges with Hamas, which had earlier freed hostages from Israel, Thailand and the Philippines. The Foreign Ministry of Qatar, which mediated the negotiations on the deal to release detainees, has confirmed the 39 Palestinian prisoners were released Friday. The Palestinians were sent home at around the same time as the 24 hostages held by Hamas crossed into Egypt and then into Israel on Friday. The International Committee of the Red Cross, which is transferring both Israeli and Palestinian prisoners and hostages, said so far 33 Palestinian detainees from the Israeli-run Ofer Prison have arrived in Ramallah, the de facto capitol of the West Bank. The exchange Friday is the first part of what is expected to be the release of a total of 50 hostages held by Hamas and 150 Palestinian prisoners in Israeli jail over four days. Over that period, there will also be a temporary pause in the fighting and the flow of more humanitarian aid into besieged Gaza.

Netanyahu Says UN Isn't Doing Enough for Palestinians in Gaza - Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Thursday accused the UN of not doing enough to respond to the humanitarian crisis he created in Gaza.“I have not seen yet the effort that I’d like to see from the UN and the international agencies to build shelters there [in Gaza],” Netanyahu said.The Israeli leader said there is “no reason not to erect tens of thousands of tents in the safe zone or next to the safe zone.” It’s unclear what safe zone he’s referring to as Israel has continued to bomb southern Gaza after telling Palestinians to evacuate the north.Israel’s bombardment of Gaza has displaced 1.7 million people in Gaza, four-fifths of the enclave’s population. It has also killed at least more than 11,000 people, including over 4,500 children, according to the last updateput out by Gaza’s Health Ministry on November 10.While Netanyahu has criticized the UN response, his campaign in Gaza has killed over 100 UN aid workers.POLITICO recently reported that the US had been sharing the locations of aid groups and workers in Gaza, but Israel continued to bomb them anyway.

Israel's Intelligence Minister Proposes the 'Resettlement' of Palestinians Outside Gaza - Israeli Intelligence Minister Gila Gamliel proposed the “voluntary resettlement” of Palestinians in the Gaza Strip to other countries around the world in an op-ed for The Jerusalem Post published Sunday.Gamliel said one option for Gaza’s future is to “promote the voluntary resettlement of Palestinians in Gaza, for humanitarian reasons, outside of the Strip.” She called for the “international community” to foot the bill for relocating Palestinians instead of funding the UN Relief and Works Agency (UNRWA).“Instead of funneling money to rebuild Gaza or to the failed UNRWA, the international community can assist in the costs of resettlement, helping the people of Gaza build new lives in their new host countries,” wrote Gamliel, a member of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud Party.Gamliel said she proposed a similar solution earlier in the war and noted it was gaining popularity among Israeli lawmakers. “I am gratified to hear that Members of Knesset from across the political spectrum, including both the coalition and opposition, have joined my Ministry’s initiative and declared their support for it,” she said.Earlier this month, two members of the Israeli Knesset wrote an op-ed for The Wall Street Journal calling for Western countries to accept Palestinian refugees. The op-ed was coauthored by a member of Likud and a member of Yesh Atid, the main opposition party led by former Prime Minister Yair Lapid. The idea has also gained support from Bezalel Smotrich, an extremist settler who leads the Religious Zionist party and is Israel’s finance minister.Last month, a leaked document drafted by Gamliel’s Intelligence Ministry proposed pushing all 2.3 million Palestinians in Gaza into Egypt, making clear the Netanyahu government is considering the complete ethnic cleansing of the Strip. But Egypt has refused to take in any Palestinian refugees, making Israeli officials seek other alternatives, such as Gazans being absorbed by the West.

China retail sales, industrial data grow faster than expected in October - — China on Wednesday reported better-than-expected retail sales and industrial data for October, while the real estate drag worsened. Retail sales grew by 7.6% last month from a year ago, above the 7% growth forecast by a Reuters poll. Industrial production rose by 4.6% year-on-year in October, faster than the 4.4% pace predicted by the Reuters poll. Fixed asset investment for the first 10 months of the year grew by 2.9% from a year ago, missing expectations for a 3.1% increase. Investment into real estate fell by 9.3% during that time, a steeper decline than the 9.1% drop reported for the first nine months of the year. "Clearly, the property sector remains a weak spot for the economy, which requires further support in the foreseeable future," Hao Zhou, chief economist at Guotai Junan International, said in a note. Funds raised by property developers fell at a steeper pace of 13.8% in October for the year so far, versus a 13.5% drop as of September. National Bureau of Statistics spokesperson Liu Aihua said real estate remained in a "transition period of adjustment." That's according to a CNBC translation of her Mandarin-language remarks. She claimed that in October, there was "marginal improvement" in real estate development and commercial housing sales. Real estate and related sectors have accounted for about a quarter of China's gross domestic product. UBS analysts estimated that share has declined to about 22% this year. New home sales have dropped, while large property developers such as Country Garden have defaulted on their debt. The urban unemployment rate was 5%, the National Bureau of Statistics said. That was unchanged from September. The bureau has suspended reports of the unemployment rate for young people since summer.

Canada plans for open banking, Mastercard expands in Asia -The Government of Canada plans to introduce legislation early next year to drive the broad development of open banking to create transparency for consumer finance, Betakit reports. Plans call for creating a road map to guide financial services data-sharing and collaboration with Payments Canada, which operates Canada's existing payment clearing and settlement system. The administration also plans to provide funding to bolster payments regulation within Canada. Payments Canada is currently spearheading Canada's rollout of real-time payments. The People's Bank of China has given formal permission to Mastercard to begin processing payments in China through a joint venture, Mastercard NUCC Information Technology, Mastercard said in a press release. Mastercard has worked for years to establish a payment-processingpresence in China. The country's central bank initially approved Mastercard's application in February 2020 to set up a domestic payment card clearing institution in China, and this week said the supporting infrastructure and regulatory requirements are complete. —Kate Fitzgerald A team of 11 executives with experience at Revolut, Coinbase and Spotify have jointly launched Zeal, a digital wallet startup whose product is designed to manage users' daily finances by combining everyday finance with crypto, digital currencies and web3 activity. The startup, based in London, aims to provide a secure way to instantly transfer digital currencies from Polygon to a bank account for free, according to a press release. Zeal, which currently is operating in an invitation-only mode, is set to roll out widely early next year. —Kate FitzgeraldVisa and Remitly, a Seattle-based international money transfer firm, have agreed to collaborate for the next five years on cross-border payments powered by Visa Direct, the card network's virtual debit product, Visa said in a press release. The two companies will work to support near-instant cross-border transfers for Remitly's customer base in more than a dozen countries including the U.S., Canada, the U.K. and Australia. They will use Remitly's proprietary network that encompasses more than 4 billion bank accounts, 1.2 billion mobile wallets and 450,000 retail locations. Visa Direct reaches more than 100 countries.

Comparing How the West and China Offer Loans to Developing Countries -In October 2023, amid celebrations commemorating the 10th anniversary of China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) in Beijing, Pakistan and Chinese leaders signed a multibillion-dollar deal for a railway project. As a pivotal component of China’s efforts to promote economic integration and develop infrastructure abroad, Pakistan has received significant developmental assistance from Beijing through the $62 billion China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC).Nevertheless, Western nations and financial entities have also been strategically maneuvering in Asia, with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) approving a $3 billion loan for Pakistan in July, “saving it from defaulting on debt.” Other countries in the region are experiencing similar competition. Bangladesh, for instance, inaugurated the BRI-linked Padma Bridge Rail Link in October, and weeks later received a $395 million loan from the EU. That month, Sri Lanka struck a debt deal with China, while the U.S. extended a $553 million loan for port construction in Colombo in early November. As competition over infrastructure and investment has grown in recent years, standoffs between Western and Chinese lenders over debt restructuring and relief have intensified. Lenders hesitate to offer relief packages, fearing that one creditor’s concession might allow a debtor country to use that relief money to pay off others. These impasses underscore the challenges being faced by the decades-old Western-dominated financial system and lending initiatives.The foundation of this system was laid at the Bretton Woods Conference in 1944. The meeting established the IMF to ensure stability of the international monetary system and offer policy advice and financial assistance to countries in economic crisis. It has since grown and comprises 190 member states, while its “sister organization,” the World Bank, was created simultaneously and has grown to include 189 member countries. The World Bank focuses more on long-term assistance through loans and grants, supporting infrastructure and poverty reduction in developing countries.Efforts to democratize these institutions have been made, but both the IMF and World Bank still remain under significant Western influence. Western countries are overrepresented on the IMF’s board and voting arrangements, while all the IMF’s managing directors have been European. All the World Bank’s presidents except for Bulgarian national Kristalina Georgieva, who served as acting president in 2019, have been U.S. citizens, and the voting shares of the bank have not been rearranged since 2010. Both institutions are based in Washington, D.C. In addition to the IMF and World Bank, other Western-dominated (or heavily influenced) multilateral development banks and institutions include the Paris Club, the European Investment Bank, the Inter-American Development Bank, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, and the Asian Development Bank. Government initiatives like USAID, the U.S. Trade and Development Agency (USTDA), and the U.S. International Development Finance Corporation, as well as private banks, also play prominent roles in advancing Western economic interests.China’s role in multilateral banks like the IMF and World Bank has expanded as its economy has grown. But Beijing continues to criticize the current global debt governance system as “dominated by the ‘Paris Club-IMF-World Bank’ structure of the West,” and has chosen to create its own path to expand its economic influence globally.China’s state capitalism offers a unique alternative to Western infrastructure and development initiatives for the first time in decades. Through its robust, globally integrated economy, technological expertise, and extensive industrial power, Beijing can help fund and build projects on a scale that rivals the West in a way not even the Soviet Union could achieve. Furthermore, Chinese assistance does not require political and economic reforms typically attached to Western developmental initiatives.China’s approach has seen significant success. It has become the world’s largest creditor since 2017, and is lending more than the IMF, World Bank, and Paris Club combined, said Brent Neiman from the U.S. Department of the Treasury in September 2022. With $1 trillion spent and more than $2 trillion in contracts, China’s BRI has transformed global trade routes and economic development and is even garnering interest from the Taliban.

Drilling snag delays rescue of 41 men stuck in Indian tunnel Hopes for the imminent rescue of 41 men trapped in a highway tunnel in the Indian Himalayas for nearly two weeks were foiled by a problem with the drilling equipment, an official said on Friday, but efforts to reach the workers should resume soon. The men, low-wage construction workers, have been confined in the 4.5-km (3-mile) tunnel in Uttarakhand state since it caved in early on Nov. 12. Authorities have said they are safe, with access to light, oxygen, food, water and medicines.Attempts to pull them out by drilling through the debris of rock, stones and metal and pushing through an evacuation pipe have been slowed by snags.Rescuers had hoped to finish the drilling late on Thursday but had to suspend it after the platform on which the auger drilling machine is fixed was damaged and needed to be repaired, Deepak Patil, who is heading the rescue operation, told Reuters.The last 10 metres (33 ft) of the 60-metre (197 ft) debris pile is left to be drilled through and work will resume once the platform is ready, he said

Far-right anti-Islamist Wilders wins Dutch election, sending shockwaves through Europe | The Times of Israel (AP) — Anti-Islam populist Geert Wilders won a huge victory in Dutch elections, according to a near complete count of the vote early Thursday, in a stunning lurch to the far right for a nation once famed as a beacon of tolerance. The result will send shockwaves through Europe, where far-right ideology is on the rise, and puts Wilders in line to lead talks to form the next governing coalition and possibly become the first far-right prime minister of the Netherlands. With nearly all votes counted, Wilders’ Party for Freedom was forecast to win 37 seats in the 150-seat lower house of parliament, two more than predicted by an exit poll when voting finished Wednesday night and more than double the 17 he won in the last election. “I had to pinch my arm,” a jubilant Wilders said. Political parties were set to hold separate meetings Thursday to discuss the outcome before what is likely to be an arduous process of forming a new governing coalition begins Friday. Despite his harsh rhetoric, Wilders has already begun courting other right and center parties by saying in a victory speech that whatever policies he pushes will be “within the law and constitution.” Geert Wilders, leader of the Party for Freedom, known as PVV, smiles after announcement of the first preliminary results of general elections in The Hague, Netherlands, Wednesday, November 22, 2023. (AP Photo/Peter Dejong) Wilders is known as the “Dutch Trump,” partly for his swept-back dyed hairstyle that resembles that of the former US president, but also for his rants against immigrants and Muslims. From calling Moroccans “scum” to holding competitions for cartoons of the Prophet Mohammed, Wilders has built a career from his self-appointed mission to stop an “Islamic invasion” of the West.

Quelle Surprise! UK Government Hands Management of NHS Patient Data to CIA-Linked US Spyware Firm, Palantir - The company that aspires to be inside “every missile,… every drone,” including, it seems, those belonging to the Israeli Defence Forces, is now running the patient data platform of the world’s second largest public health care system. The Rishi Sunak government this week finally announced its decision, presumably made long ago, to hand the management of all NHS England patient records to Palantir, a tech company whose client list includes the US military, intelligence agencies and ICE, as well as the armed forces of the UK, Israel and other western countries. The five-year contract between NHS England — the non-departmental government body that runs the National Health Service in England — and Palantir is worth £360 million ($450 million), but that figure could rise as high as £480 million ($600 million) if, as expected, it is extended by two further years.That’s a lot of money for a company that, like so many other Silicon Valley giants, is yet to post a single annual profit in its 20 years of operations. More valuable still is the NHS’ patient data system, which is the largest repository of health data in the world. As WIRED UK magazine reported in 2019, before Palantir had even signed its first contract with the NHS, Amazon, Google and the rest of Silicon Valley all wanted to get their hands on the data trove. Unsurprisingly, patients were less keen on the idea:Careful use of health data could save lives, cut costs of delivering health care and even become a nice little earner for the NHS – indeed, an EY analysis that’s frequently touted by the government suggests opening up the vaults could earn the underfunded public health organisation as much as £9.6 billion annually. But the tradeoffs could be our privacy, letting big tech further monetise medicine, and locking hospitals and clinics into expensive tech systems that will cost us more in the long run.The £360 million deal grants Palantir and its four partners, Accenture, PwC, NECS and Carnall Farrar, responsibility for overhauling and managing that system. The government’s decision to pick Palantir may not have come as a surprise to close observers — more than a year ago we reported that NHS England had quietly instructed NHS Digital to gather patient data from NHS hospitals and extract it to its data platform, which is based on Palantir’s Foundry enterprise data management platform — but that doesn’t make it any less controversial.This is a company whose co-founder and current chairman of the board, Peter Thiel, recently described the British public’s affection for the NHS as “Stockholm Syndrome.” Speaking in an Oxford Union debate, he said the country “could rip the whole thing from the ground and start over” (as opposed to the slow death that successive UK governments have been subjecting it to), and that British people needed to stop thinking of the NHS as “the most wonderful thing in the world.”This comes from a man who makes much of his money from the national security state, pens homages to Carl Schmitt and Leo Strauss, and is a member of the Bilderberg Club’s steering committee. Palantir, the company he co-founded and whose board he still chairs, is one of the darkest companies in the tech sphere, which is saying a lot. From my previous post, NHS to Use US “Spy-Tech” Firm Palantir’s Platform to Extract Patient Data Without Patient Consent:

Ukrainian Official Confirms Russia Was Ready to End War in March 2022 If Kyiv Agreed to Neutrality - David Arakhamia, a high-ranking member of Volodymyr Zelensky’s Servant of the People political party, said that Kyiv could have ended the war with Russia after a month if it agreed not to join NATO. The official said that Moscow was not concerned about other issues, such as “denazification,” but only wanted Kyiv to agree to neutrality. In an interview with TV channel 1+1, a Ukrainian network, Arakhamia confirmed previous reporting that Moscow and Kyiv had nearly agreed to end the war in March 2022. Still, Ukraine’s Western backers pushed it to try to win the war against Russia. “They really hoped almost to the last moment that they would force us to sign such an agreement so that we would take neutrality,” Arakhamia said.” It was the most important thing for them. They were prepared to end the war if we agreed to – as Finland once did – neutrality, and committed that we would not join NATO.” Arakhamia, who led the Ukrainian negotiation team, said that other issues, such as the protection of ethnic Russians in Ukraine and the “denazification” of the government in Kyiv, were less important to Moscow. “In fact, [neutrality] was the key point.” He continued, “Everything else was simply rhetoric and political ‘seasoning’ about denazification, the Russian-speaking population and blah-blah-blah.” The high-ranking official explained that Kyiv was unlikely to accept Putin’s offer during the talks in Istanbul because the Ukrainian leadership did not believe Russia could be trusted. However, he went on to say that then-UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson cemented Kyiv on the path of fighting a long war with Russia. “[The deal] could only be done if there were security guarantees. We could not sign something, step away, everyone would relax there, and then they would [invade] even more prepared – because they have, in fact, gone in unprepared for such a resistance, Arakhamia said. “Moreover, when we returned from Istanbul, Boris Johnson came to Kyiv and said that we would not sign anything with them at all, and let’s just fight.” Arakhamia explained that while Kyiv’s Western backers did not discourage talks, they advised against accepting a deal. “They actually advised us not to go into ephemeral security guarantees, which could not have been given at that time at all,” he stated during the interview. The statements in the interview by Arakhamia confirm several reports from other officials – Russian, Turkish, and American – that a deal was offered by the Kremlin in the early days of the war to withdraw Russian forces to the prewar lines in exchange for Kyiv’s vow to never join NATO. Now, after 20 months of war, Ukraine’s Western backers are discussing Kyiv’s opening dialogue with Moscow. Since the talks in the early months of the conflict, Russia has annexed four regions of Ukraine, suggesting Moscow is likely to demand more territorial concessions than what was once on the table for Kyiv.