New York Fed president says central bank not close to ending QT - — Recent developments on the Federal Reserve's balance sheet have some officials and analysts eyeing the end of quantitative tightening efforts. But one Fed leader says not to expect policy changes anytime soon. Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams, in a speech delivered Wednesday, said he does not expect the central bank to slow its balance sheet reduction efforts anytime soon. "In its plans, the [Federal Open Market Committee] said that to ensure a smooth transition, it intends to slow and then stop the decline in the size of the balance sheet when reserve balances are somewhat above the level it judges to be consistent with ample reserves," Williams said. "So far, we don't seem to be close to that point." Since the summer of 2022, the Fed has been allowing Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities on its balance sheet to expire without replacing them as part of its push to make monetary conditions tighter. Currently, the Fed is allowing $95 billion of assets to rolloff monthly, which has led to a commensurate reduction in its liabilities. In total, the balance sheet is down roughly $1.3 trillion from peak in the spring of 2022. Williams oversees the Federal Reserve's System Open Market Account, or SOMA, which is housed at the New York Fed. He also serves as vice chair of the FOMC. In his speech, he noted that the balance sheet reduction has gone smoothly and has shown no signs of crimping the supply of reserves — funds held by commercial banks at the Fed. "The decline in securities holdings has been absorbed almost entirely by a drop in the overnight reverse repurchase agreement facility," Williams said. "As a result, aggregate reserve balances are little changed from their levels in mid-2022, when balance sheet reduction started."
No Smoking Gun Yet To Justify Magnitude Of Fed Rate-Cuts - US data from last week were not enough, from the perspective of the economy, to endorse the amount of rate cuts from the Federal Reserve expected by the market. Payrolls and the jobs data released last week demonstrated why the market – and the Fed – shouldn’t take it too seriously as a real-time snapshot of the labor market. On the surface, the data was solid next to expectations, but if you go digging you will always find elements to back up a bullish or bearish case. A more positive interpretation came from the headline data versus what was expected, while the negative view would point out that government played a big part in the rise of payrolls. Moreover total downward revisions for 2023 are 443,000 (so far - payrolls is typically revised up to two years after the fact). Either way, it really is not a good reflection of where the labor market is today. Nonetheless, traders love volatility, so it will continue to have market impact. In that case, it makes sense to pay more attention to the more leading aspects of the employment data. Temporary help services tends to lead the labor market as employers are more likely to hire and fire these people first. Temp help has been contracting since late 2022 but, as I pointed out on Friday, the drop was largely a function of temp help in medical services, and temp medical services is now stabilizing. Average weekly hours worked, also a leading indicator for the labor market, remained at the stable level it has been at for most of the last year. Overall, the message from the data is of a jobs market that is slowing, but not at an accelerating rate. That on its own (nor the weaker-than-expected ISM services data on Friday) is not enough to justify the size of the Fed cuts expected by the market (from an economic perspective, however after the bank’s December pivot, there’s good chance its reaction function may have changed). But higher rates will increasingly bite as the year goes on, increasing the odds of a recession.
The BTFP Will Expire in March: Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr - The Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP), the Fed’s infamous tool to nip the March 2023 bank-panic and liquidity crisis in the bud, will expire on March 11, at its original one-year time limit, Michael Barr, Fed Vice Chair for Supervision, said at a panel appearance in Washington, D.C., today.“The program worked as intended,” he said. “It dramatically reduced stress in the system very quickly,” he said. “It was highly effective.”Banks can continue to take out new loans under this program until March 11, and refinance existing loans for a year, he said (reported by MarketWatch).And that would be it for the March-2023 generation of liquidity measures. The other liquidity measures of that generation have already been paid off. We discussed all of them in our regular Fed balance sheet discussions, including last week here.The BTFP was a new program put in place on March 12, 2023, to deal with a panic among depositors that had led them to yank their cash out of a bunch of banks, in some cases essentially in days, leading to the collapse of three regional banks, Silicon Valley Bank, Signature Bank, and First Republic, where all depositors were made whole by the FDIC, but investors were wiped out. A fourth bank, Silvergate Capital, which had experienced the first run on the bank in this cycle was unwound under pressure but without FDIC funding.The BTFP had two specific features that made it less costly for banks to borrow from the Fed than at the Fed’s long-existing Discount Window:
- Banks could post collateral at the purchase price, not market value, but the collateral had to be purchased before March 12, 2023, so that banks couldn’t game the system. The Discount Window requires collateral valued at market value.
- Interest charged is a fixed rate for the term of the loan (up to one year) equal to the one-year overnight index swap rate, plus 10 basis points. This made it a little less costly than the Discount Window, whose rate is set by the Fed as one of its five policy rates (currently 5.5%)
But this feature #2 became a hot item in early November, when Treasury yields of one year and longer began to plunge on the rate-cut mania, with the one-year yield eventually dropping to around 4.85% in December. And the BTFP’s one-year overnight index swap rate, plus 10 basis points, moved in the same range.So banks could borrow at around 4.85% from the Fed, and then leave the cash in their reserve accounts at the Fed to earn 5.4% on it, for a nice risk-free spread. This arbitrage opportunity caused a surge in the BTFP balances starting in early November.
Powell faces partisan potholes as Fed nears soft landing - Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is attempting to bring the U.S. economy in for a rare soft landing on a runway littered with partisan potholes. The central bank appears likely to avert a recession and pull off a remarkable feat of economic policymaking. The Fed last month signaled the end of a historic spate of rate hikes that have contributed to curbing inflation to 3.1 percent annually in November 2023 from its 9.1 percent peak in June 2022. But the job isn’t done yet, and Powell faces several political obstacles — including former President Trump. The 2024 presidential election will be in full swing as the Fed decides whether and how deeply it will cut interest rates. That will put Powell and the Fed in the middle of the partisan battle over President Biden’s handling of the economy. “Jerome Powell’s position as the Federal Reserve chair places him at a strategic juncture between economic policy and its political implications,” Republican strategist Charlie Kolean, the chief strategist of RED PAC, told The Hill. “His decisions on interest rates are not just economic tools but also carry significant political weight, especially in an election year. Given his history of being a target of political criticism, his decisions will be closely watched for their economic and political repercussions.” Trump, the GOP presidential front-runner, is unlikely to tolerate a series of Fed rate cuts that stimulate the U.S. economy as he attempts to win back the White House. The former president berated Powell throughout his presidency for refusing to cut rates in line with his political objectives and has already vowed not to reappoint the Fed chair. The Fed could also take heat from Democrats if it holds off on rate cuts, and some progressive lawmakers are already laying blame for another Trump presidency at Powell’s feet. Rep. Ro Khanna (D-Calif.) said last month that the Fed “should cut interest rates” or be “most responsible” for Trump’s reelection. Powell, however, has already shot down any attempt to sway the Fed. “We don’t think about political events; we don’t think about politics. We think about what’s the right thing to do for the economy,” Powell said in December. Powell, a Republican, has faced unprecedented public political pressure since becoming Fed chair in 2018. A former investment banker and Treasury Department official, Powell joined the Fed board in 2012 after former President Obama nominated him to break a partisan stalemate. Trump tapped Powell five years later to replace former Fed chair and current Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, touting his combination of experience on Wall Street and Washington. Trump, however, turned on Powell soon after appointing him. As the Fed ignored the president’s demands to boost the stock market and his leverage in trade talks, Trump threatened to fire Powell and questioned whether Chinese President Xi Jinping was kinder to the U.S.
Fed Inspector General: Board needs policies for sensitive information -- The Federal Reserve Board of Governors lacks sufficient standards for how its staff handles certain types of sensitive information, according to findings from its internal watchdog. The Fed's Office of Inspector General issued a report Thursday highlighting the central bank's lack of policies around how to safeguard so-called controlled unclassified information, or CUI, a label that applies to sensitive government information that does not rise to the level of classified. Fed officials agreed with the findings and told the inspector general that they have already taken steps to address the situation. During a yearlong review of the Fed's intelligence systems, which ran from October 2022 to October 2023, auditors from the inspector general's office interviewed officials from five divisions under the board of governors that frequently deal with CUI, including the legal division and information technology division. According to the report, no staffers were aware of any guidelines around handling such information and several expressed concern about their absence. "Specifically, one official indicated that the lack of CUI guidance is a potential gap in Board guidance," the report states. "Officials from multiple Board divisions agreed that including some information on CUI safeguarding in Board guidance and training would be helpful." The board's IT division does have a set of policies on how to handle the board's printed and digital information, known as the Information Classification and Handling Standard. These rules outline how staff should classify and protect various types of information the board generates and receives. But, according to the report, these rules do not address CUI. The report noted that the Fed's standards largely apply to sensitive information created by the board, but does acknowledge that some information received may be subject to different and more stringent requirements. For external sensitive information shared with the board, officials told auditors that staff are instructed to follow handling guidelines set out by the transmitting agency. But, the report notes that investigators were "unable to locate such instructions in a Boardwide information policy or annual training."
Fed Reports Operating Loss of $114 billion for 2023, as Interest Expense Blows Out by Wolf Richter --The Federal Reserve released its preliminary financial information for 2023 today (audited annual financial statements will be released in a few months).The Fed’s red-ink era began in September 2022, when it started losing money after its rate hikes had increased the interest rate it pays banks for their reserve balances at the Fed (5.4% currently) and the interest rate it pays the counterparties of the overnight Reverse Repos, mostly money market funds (5.3% currently).And those surging interest expenses have far surpassed the interest income from its now dwindling portfolio of much lower yielding securities that it had bought during the QE mostly years ago. Since QT began in the summer of 2022, the Fed has shed $1.02 trillion in Treasury securities and $308 billion in MBS.The total loss from operations (estimated income minus total expenses) nearly doubled to $114.3 billion in 2023 (from a loss of $58.8 billion in 2022). Here is how that came about:Interest income at $174.2 billion (compared to $170 billion a year earlier).
- Interest income from mostly low-yielding securities the Fed bought years ago fell to $163.8 billion in 2023 (from $170.0 billion in 2022).
- Interest income from loans to banks, such as the Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP) amounted to $10.4 billion.
Other income: $0.5 million from payment and settlement services; and $0.1 billion net income from the tail end of the Covid emergency programsInterest expenses spiked by 175% to $281.1 billion in 2023 (from $102.4 billion in 2022), as the Fed paid much higher interest rates on reserve balances and ON RPPs as a result of its rate hikes. Since the last rate hike in July 2023, the Fed has been paying banks 5.4% on the cash they put on deposit at the Fed (“reserve balances”); and it has been paying ON RRP counterparties, mostly money market funds, 5.3% in interest.This increase of $178.7 billion in interest expense arose from paying banks $116.3 billion more in interest on their reserve balances in 2023 than a year earlier, and paying money market funds and other ON RRP counterparties $62.4 billion more in interest.Operating expenses roughly unchanged at $5.5 billion. These are the expense of running the 12 Federal Reserve Banks (FRBs), such as the New York Fed, the San Francisco Fed, the Richmond Fed, etc.In addition, the 12 FRBs had to pay:
- $1.0 billion for the costs related to producing, issuing, and retiring currency (paper dollars).
- $1.1 billion in expenses by Federal Reserve Board of Governors, a government agency, funded by the 12 FRBs.
- $0.7 billion in expense to operate the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, a government agency funded by the 12 FRBs.
The incomes, expenses, and losses here are those of the 12 Federal Reserve Banks, which are owned by the largest financial institutions in their districts. The Federal Reserve Board of Governors, of which Powell is Chair, is a government agency, and Powell is a government employee appointed by the President and confirmed by the Senate. But it is an independent Agency, funded by the 12 FRBs (not by Congress).Statutory dividends rose to $1.5 billion (from $1.2 billion in 2022). The dividends are paid to the shareholders of the 12 FRBs.The Fed is required to remit all its leftover income – after paying its expenses and statutory dividends – to the US Treasury Department, a form of a 100% income tax bracket.Since 2001, the Fed has remitted $1.36 trillion to the US Treasury. Even over the first eight months in 2022, the Fed still remitted $76 billion to the US Treasury. The remittances stopped in September when it started to lose money.Over the last months in 2022, the Fed books $16.6 billion in losses against future remittances (red for 2022 in the chart below); and in the year 2023, it booked $116.4 billion in losses against future remittances.The Fed puts the income it has to remit to the US Treasury into an account on the liability side of its balance sheet, called “Earnings remittances due to the U.S. Treasury.” Since the income remittances were paid regularly, the amounts didn’t accumulate.
Trump says he hopes economy crashes in next 12 months: ‘I don’t want to be Herbert Hoover’ - Former President Trump said in an interview that aired Monday that he predicts the U.S. economy will crash and that he hopes it does so within the next year. In the interview with Lou Dobbs, Trump, the current front-runner in the GOP presidential primary race, explained that, if he were elected again, he would not want to serve a term similar to President Hoover’s — who took office when the economy was stable but later oversaw the start of the Great Depression. Trump railed against the economy but conceded that there were some good aspects of it and took credit for those successes. “We have an economy that’s so fragile, and the only reason it’s running now is it’s running off the fumes of what we did,” Trump said. “It’s just running off the fumes.” Trump added: “And when there’s a crash — I hope it’s going to be during this next 12 months because I don’t want to be Herbert Hoover. The one president I just don’t want to be, Herbert Hoover.” The U.S. economy, however, has defied economists’ predictions and closed the 2023 year with high marks on a wide range of criteria: Inflation was down, job growth remained high, and the unemployment rate stayed low. “What we’re seeing now I think we can describe as a soft landing, and my hope is that it will continue,” Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said in an interview on CNN on Friday, shortly after the release of a surprisingly strong jobs report for December. The U.S. added 216,000 jobs in the final month of 2023 and kept the unemployment rate at 3.7 percent, far exceeding the expectations of economists. The annual inflation rate also dropped from 9.1 percent, a four-decade high, in June 2022 to 3.1 percent in November, according to the Labor Department.
Speaker Johnson in pressure cooker as partial shutdown deadline nears Pressure is ratcheting up on Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) as he returns to work this week aiming to push through a government funding deal to avoid a shutdown that could hurt the GOP in an election year. Johnson faces major risks as he seeks to solidify the first major legislative deal of his tenure, including those from conservatives who say Republicans should be willing to shut down the government to secure the southern border. “There’s incredible pressure on Speaker Johnson to step up as the highest-ranking Republican in Congress and get a deal that can pass. The last guy lost his job trying to do it,” one Senate GOP aide told The Hill, referring to former Speaker Kevin McCarthy’s (R-Calif.) ouster in October after he cut a deal to temporarily fund the government. Johnson and Democratic leaders announced a deal on topline spending numberson Sunday, largely modeled after a debt limit deal that McCarthy struck with the White House last year that prompted months of rebellion from hardline conservatives — but that Johnson said secured included new offsets. The new Speaker, like McCarthy, has a tiny majority that seems only to be shrinking. With House Majority Leader Steve Scalise (R-La.) out for cancer treatment until next month, it means losing just three GOP lawmakers on any vote forces Johnson to rely on Democratic lawmakers to pass major legislation. There are some differences in play when it comes to Johnson and McCarthy. While McCarthy had trust issues and damaged relations with a host of conservatives in his conference, Johnson is in more of a grace period with his members that gives him more leeway. And unlike McCarthy, he is also working in an election year where Republicans want to avoid mistakes that would make it harder for them to hold on to and build their House majority in the fall. Republicans are eyeing full control of Washington as their odds for picking up the Senate grow and as polls show former President Trump with an edge on President Biden. Rep. Dave Joyce (R-Ohio), a House GOP appropriations cardinal, stressed that appropriators think a shutdown is “a bad idea.” “When we shut down, it costs us $60 million a day,” Joyce said. Under a two-tiered funding extension that Johnson spearheaded in order to avoid a single massive omnibus spending bill, part of government funding runs out on Jan. 19, and the rest runs out two weeks later on Feb. 2. That leaves little time for Johnson to get the deal into legislative bill text form and usher it through the House in face of the GOP opposition. “The difficult process of conferencing FY24 appropriations bills now begins under extremely tight timelines,” a House Appropriations Committee GOP spokesperson said in a statement. “The Committee remains focused on fighting for conservative wins as we wrap up this process.” The problems at the southern border are adding to the pressure-filled environment. Rabble-rousing House Republicans have tried to inject efforts to stem the flow of migrants into the government-funding talks — tossing a wrench into talks on avoiding a shutdown. Numerous hard-line GOP members including Reps. Matt Gaetz (Fla.), Andy Biggs (Ariz.) and Matt Rosendale (Mont.) — three of the eight Republicans who forced McCarthy’s ouster — say Republicans should shut down the government if they do not win steps that make meaningful progress at the border. Biden administration officials were alarmed at the tone of talks from Republicans during a Johnson-led trip by 60 members to the border outside Eagle Pass, Texas. “[T]he border trip left me with more concerns about where they’re headed,” Shalanda Young, the director of the Office of Management and Budget, said of the shutdown threats from Republicans on Friday. Young, a former appropriations aide with years of front-line experience in high-stakes shutdown fights, suggested how things move forward will be a test for Johnson’s leadership. “While I think leadership understands it’s a bad path, the question is, can they hold back the floodgates?” she said. Johnson has previously said that he does not want a shutdown but said that border issues are a top priority for the House GOP. “In summary, we want to get the border closed and secured, first; and we want to make sure that we reduce nondefense discretionary spending. That is an important objective,” Johnson said in a press conference from the border trip.
DeSantis slams GOP support for government funding bill -- Republican presidential candidate Ron DeSantis sharply criticized the government funding deal and accused House Republicans backing the bill of “selling out” their campaign positions from 2022. “By agreeing to this Establishment budget deal, House Republicans are selling out everything that they ran on in 2022,” DeSantis wrote in a post on X, formerly Twitter. “They promised to change the way Washington operates. They said that they were going to hold these agencies accountable. “Instead, they’re funding the status quo into perpetuity over fear of a ‘government shutdown,’” DeSantis continued. After weeks of negotiations, Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) and Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) announced a $1.66 trillion funding deal on Sunday that would minimally reduce overall spending by the government. It also largely follows the parameters set in last year’s deal struck between then-Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) and President Biden. “We need a President who will use the bully pulpit, lay a marker down, and stand strong to deliver results for our voters. I will do that — just like I’ve done as governor,” DeSantis said. By criticizing the deal, DeSantis joins many far-right members of the House Freedom Caucus who blasted the deal when it was announced and who have pledged not to vote for it. DeSantis has frequently tried to position himself as the more conservative candidate in the race, even running further to the right than former President Trump on certain policy matters. Some conservatives say Republicans should be willing to shut down the government in order to secure the border. Others, however, have signaled they’re less enthusiastic to force a government shutdown, especially during an election year. Under Johnson’s two-tiered funding plan to avoid a single omnibus spending bill, only part of the government would shut down if new funding fails to pass by Jan. 19. The second part of government funding would
Speaker Johnson faces conservative unrest over funding deal -- Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) faces a daunting task in getting a deal to fund the government over the finish line amid strenuous opposition from conservatives in his conference. The Speaker, elected just a few months ago after his predecessor was tossed for working with Democrats to fund the government, is now himself likely to rely on the minority party in the House to get his deal approved over outrage from his right flank. Johnson has a razor-thin House GOP majority and a tight deadline; the government will partially shut down if funding legislation isn’t signed into law by Jan. 19, while the Pentagon and other agencies would shut down after Feb. 2 without a deal. The path to a Johnson win is expected to be a political minefield, even if plenty of Republicans want to avoid the chaos that engulfed the House in the October mutiny against former Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.). The top-line spending deal congressional leaders announced over the weekend includes a $1.59 trillion base top line, plus around $69 billion in budget tweaks to plus-up nondefense dollars for most of the 2024 fiscal year. The House Freedom Caucus, which includes around three dozen members, wrote in a post on X, formerly known as Twitter, that the deal was a “total failure.” Johnson recognized in a “Dear Colleague” letter Sunday that the spending levels “will not satisfy everyone, and they do not cut as much spending as many of us would like.” But he touted some wins on accelerating clawbacks of IRS funding, as well as a $6.1 billion cut to “COVID-era slush funds,” calling it “the most favorable budget agreement Republicans have achieved in over a decade.” In an added wrinkle, several hard-line GOP members are calling for a government shutdown if the Biden administration does not agree to border policy changes — a debate that has largely been centered around separate supplemental spending package that pairs it with Ukraine aid. One major question is whether Johnson will utilize a process that denies conservatives the opportunity to sink appropriations bills through a procedural vote. Because House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.), Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.), and President Biden gave their stamps of approval to the deal, Johnson is likely to get more than enough Democratic support to make up for House GOP defections on final passage of the appropriations legislation. But in the House, the normal process is to first pass a rule dictating terms of debate for the bill — which the minority party almost always uniformly opposes, as a test of party strength. While it used to be unheard of for a majority party to sink rule votes, hard-line conservatives have repeatedly done so to protest other spending bills over the past year. It was unclear as of Monday whether any Republicans would move to sink the procedural votes. Rep. Ralph Norman (R-S.C.), who is unhappy with Johnson’s deal, told The Hill in a text message that he will wait to see the specifics of each bill before deciding whether to oppose the rule. Party leaders can use a process known as suspension of the rules — normally used for noncontroversial legislation — to bypass the procedural vote and clear the bill with two-thirds support of the chamber. Rep. Tim Burchett (R-Tenn.), one of the eight Republicans who voted to oust former Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) in October, told The Hill that in a text message that some conservatives will “possibly” tank the rule if the appropriations bills are considered through regular order, noting Johnson will “possibly” have to bring up the bills under suspension.
Schumer praises Johnson after spending deal: ‘Decent, respectful guy’ - Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) praised House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) in the wake of congressional leaders reaching a new top-line spending deal Tuesday.“He’s a very decent, respectful guy, unlike some, who want to be macho and bullying and threatening and all that. He’s not like that,” Schumer said at a press conference Tuesday. “But he’s in a very, very difficult position.”On Sunday, Johnson announced the deal with the Senate and White House in a “Dear Colleague” letter.“The topline constitutes $1.590 trillion for [fiscal 2024] — the statutory levels of the Fiscal Responsibility Act. That includes $886 billion for defense and $704 billion for nondefense,” Johnson said in the letter.However, Johnson has faced blowback from right-wing colleagues for the deal. In a post on X, the platform formerly known as Twitter, the House Freedom Caucus said that the deal was a “total failure.”“I am a NO to the Johnson Schumer budget deal,” Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene wrote Monday on X. “This $1.6 Trillion dollar budget agreement does nothing to secure the border, stop the invasion, or stop the weaponized government targeting Biden’s political enemies and innocent Americans.” “So much for the power of the purse!” she added. At the moment, Congress is facing a looming deadline of Jan. 19 to pass legislation to avert a partial government shutdown. Some departments, including the Pentagon, have funding that goes through early February.
Speaker Johnson defends spending deal to unhappy conference - Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) is fighting to defend the spending deal he struck with Democrats this week against attacks from the right flank, acknowledging that it’s not the conservative ideal but saying it represents “the best” Republicans can muster. “This is not what we all want, it’s not the best deal that we could get if we were in charge of both chambers and the White House. But it’s the best deal that we could broker under the circumstances,” Johnson told reporters Tuesday in the Capitol after a closed-door meeting of Republican leaders in the Speaker’s office. Since the agreement was announced, Johnson has come under intense criticism from conservatives in his own conference, who are hammering the deal for not cutting government spending sharply enough while excluding new border security measures. The internal reproval has highlighted the dilemma facing Johnson, who is fighting to keep the government open — an effort that will require compromise with Democrats — without sparking a revolt from his restive right flank, which ousted his predecessor, former Rep. Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.), for his willingness to compromise with Democrats on spending bills. Returning to Washington on Tuesday after the long holiday break, Johnson said his hands were tied by an earlier budget deal endorsed by McCarthy, who resigned from Congress last month after being booted from the Speakership “I inherited this situation,” Johnson said in an interview with Fox Business Network minutes before speaking with reporters. Johnson pointed to the slim majority that Republicans have in the House — and the reality that they only control one chamber in the legislative branch. “This is a step forward. It’s not what we want, it’s not everything we want, but remember, we have a one to two vote margin in just one chamber of the legislative branch. I mean, this is the best we could do right now,” he said. House Republicans are currently working with a two-vote majority: The chamber ousted former Rep. George Santos (R-N.Y.) in December, McCarthy resigned from office on New Year’s Eve and Majority Leader Steve Scalise (R-La.) is sidelined from Washington until next month as he undergoes a stem cell transplant as part of his cancer treatment.
Chip Roy on Johnson ouster: ‘That’s not the road I prefer’ -Rep. Chip Roy (R-Texas) did not rule out supporting a motion to remove Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) from his post over a top-line spending deal struck with Democratic leaders and the White House — but said that’s not his preferred path. Appearing on CNN on Monday evening, Roy expressed his displeasure with the spending deal, which he says uses budget “gimmicks” to increase some spending above the statutory caps set in the Fiscal Responsibility Act debt limit bill last year. “I wish Speaker Johnson weren’t doing this. So, I’m very disappointed. And hopefully we can try to figure out what we can do to change it in the next few days,” Roy said. “I think there’s going to be some real conversations this week about what we need to do going forward,” Roy later added. CNN host Kaitlan Collins then asked whether that could include making a move to oust Johnson from the Speakership — as occurred in October with Johnson’s predecessor, former Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.). “That’s not the road I prefer,” Roy responded. “I didn’t prefer to go down that road with Speaker McCarthy. We need to figure out how to get this all done together. But it isn’t good, and there’s a lot of my colleagues who are pretty frustrated about it, so we’ll see what happens this week.” “You said you don’t prefer it, but you did not say no to that, I should note,” Collins said.
Greene decries idea of dumping Johnson: ‘I’m kind of sick of the chaos,’ not here for ‘clickbait’ -Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) criticized a GOP colleague Tuesday for suggesting that ousting Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) is not off the table as the House GOP struggles to unite behind a top-line spending deal struck over the weekend. Greene, who opposes the spending deal, told reporters Tuesday that one of the “biggest things” she has complained about since entering Congress is the “lack of communication” between members of the GOP conference, pointing to Rep. Chip Roy’s (R-Texas) remarks Monday night where he did not rule out making a motion to remove Johnson from the Speakership over the top-line spending deal. “And I would say that Chip Roy haphazardly throwing in a motion to vacate is probably about the dumbest thing that could happen, because I think the last motion to vacate was pretty stupid, and has — has thrown our conference into utter chaos,” Greene said. “I mean, look at the results we have now. We haven’t passed any more appropriation bills since they threw out Kevin McCarthy. We — we have expelled a Republican member of Congress, we’re reducing our numbers,” she added. In an interview with CNN’s Kaitlan Collins on Monday night, Roy said he was not happy with the top-line spending deal that Johnson made with Democratic leadership over the weekend. When pushed on whether a path forward could include making a move to boot Johnson from the Speakership, Roy dodged the question. “That’s not the road I prefer,” Roy responded. “I didn’t prefer to go down that road with Speaker McCarthy. We need to figure out how to get this all done together. But it isn’t good, and there’s a lot of my colleagues who are pretty frustrated about it, so we’ll see what happens this week.” Greene noted that Republicans barely have a majority due to illnesses and recent resignations and suggested that the conference should focus on “solving problems.” “I’m kind of sick of the chaos. I came here to be serious about solving problems, not to produce clickbait,” she said. While Greene said she is not in favor of moving to vacate Johnson, she has been critical of the Louisiana Republican in the past. In an interview with The Hill last month, she emphasized that Johnson still needs to earn her trust on numerous issues.
Conservatives tank procedural vote in revolt against Johnson’s spending deal A band of House conservatives tanked a procedural vote Wednesday in a rebellion against the spending deal Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) struck with Democrats, which members of the right flank have sharply criticized. Thirteen Republicans joined with Democrats to vote against the rule for a trio of bills, preventing the chamber from debating and voting on the measures — which are unrelated to spending. Rep. Blake Moore (R-Utah), the vice chair of the House GOP conference, changed his vote to oppose the rule shortly before the vote closed, a move that allows him to bring up the rule for another vote at a later time. The final tally was 203-216. Republican leadership canceled an afternoon vote series following the revolt. The show of opposition came days after Johnson unveiled a deal on top-line spending numbers for the remainder of fiscal 2024. Conservatives have railed against the deal for not cutting spending enough. Congress is staring down Jan. 19 and Feb. 2 shutdown deadlines. The agreement — which is largely in line with the caps set in the debt limit deal then-Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) struck with President Biden last year — includes a $1.59 trillion top line, plus roughly $69 billion in budget tweaks to increase nondefense dollars for most of fiscal 2024. It also includes an additional $10 billion in cuts to IRS mandatory funding and a $6.1 billion clawback of unspent COVID-19 funds. “We’re making a statement that what the deal, as has been announced, that doesn’t secure the border and that doesn’t cut our spending, and that’s gonna be passed apparently under suspension of the rules with predominantly Democrat votes is unacceptable,” Rep. Bob Good (R-Va.), the newly minted chairman of the House Freedom Caucus, told reporters. Republican Reps. Andy Biggs (Ariz.), Good, Chip Roy (Texas), Ralph Norman (S.C.), Anna Paulina Luna (Fla.), Matt Rosendale (Mont.), Marjorie Taylor Greene (Ga.), Scott Perry (Pa.), Eric Burlison (Mo.) and Andy Ogles (Tenn.) opposed the procedural vote. Votes on rules — which outline parameters for debate — are typically mundane efforts, with the majority party supporting the vote and the minority party opposing it. But conservatives this Congress have utilized the tactic of torpedoing rules to showcase their frustration with various leadership decisions. Asked if conservatives will continue to tank rules as a sign of opposition against Johnson’s spending deal, Good said, “My hope is to persuade the Speaker and the leadership and the entire Republican conference to not follow through with the deal as it’s been announced.” Johnson, however, expressed confidence that the deal would remain intact after the rule failed. “It’s gonna survive,” Johnson said during an interview on Fox News Channel. “What I’ve told Ralph Norman and Chip Roy, who are my close friends, I’m also a conservative hardliner, that’s been my entire career in Congress and all of my years as a legislator. Cutting spending, this is a big priority for us, the Republican Party.” “What we negotiated in the topline agreement for the appropriations going forward is an innovation,” he continued. “We’re trying to get back to 12 appropriations bills instead of ruling and governing by omnibus spending bills. We’ve done that, we achieved that at the end of last year and now we have to get into the individual spending bills.” The next step, he said, is fighting to get conservative policy riders in the appropriations bills.
Conservative calls for Johnson to rip up deal frustrate other Republicans - A late push from hard-line conservatives in the House to get Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) to back out of a top-line spending deal with Democrats is frustrating Republicans on both sides of the Capitol. “That’s pretty nasty. It’s ridiculous,” Rep. Greg Murphy (R-N.C.) said, noting that the same members have continuously complained about spending deals over the last year. “At some point when you have people complain all the time, it’s like crying wolf. It just lacks credibility anymore.” Rep. Max Miller (R-Ohio) had sharper words for the conservatives pressing to renegotiate the deal: “They’re just feckless people.” “It’s just easier for them to scream and vote no, because it takes a lot of courage to explain a yes vote and everything that’s inside of it,” Miller said. “If I said I was gonna vote no on any of this stuff, my job would be a lot easier.” After tanking a procedural vote and holding up floor action Wednesday on unrelated legislation in protest of the deal announced over the weekend, conservatives huddled with Johnson in his office Thursday to convince him to retract his commitment to the top-line deal and push for a new spending agreement with Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) and the White House. “I’m doing everything I can to influence the Speaker to ditch the bad deal for the country, which is the Schumer deal, and to commit to cutting spending over last year and securing the border and doing whatever we can to accomplish that,” said Rep. Bob Good (R-Va.), the chair of the House Freedom Caucus. The bipartisan deal sets top-line spending at $1.59 trillion plus around $69 billion in additional budget tweaks — largely in line with the spending caps included in the debt limit deal then-Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) struck with President Biden last year that outraged Republicans, leading to McCarthy’s ouster. Johnson has touted some tweaks to that agreement, including accelerating clawbacks of IRS mandatory funding and additional clawbacks of unspent pandemic funds. Johnson assured reporters Thursday that he has not made any commitments to the conservatives — “so if you hear otherwise, it’s just simply not true” — but the chatter about a new framework is enraging Republicans, who are aiming their fire at the rabble rousers who have been at the center of near-constant chaos in the lower chamber. “Rank-and-file members who just want to solve the problems that face our country, and who understand that that will most likely be done through incremental progress, are furious with the hard-line tactics,” said one House GOP member who requested anonymity to speak candidly. “They think it’s playing into the Democrats’ hands; they think that it is undermining our ability to get a victory in November; and they think it’s moving the country backwards. People are pissed.” Rep. Garret Graves (R-La.), a key negotiator of the Fiscal Responsibility Act bill last year that is the basis of the spending deal, said that the Freedom Caucus’s calls to renegotiate the top line has “reaffirmed that they’re not focused upon real savings and real outcomes.” “This is all theatrics for them. This is the drama caucus,” Graves said.
Johnson risks same fate as McCarthy with spending deal --Conservative outrage over the top-line spending deal negotiated by Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) is fueling speculation over whether he could meet the same fate as his predecessor and have his gavel yanked away. Rep. Chip Roy (R-Texas) explicitly left open the possibility of forcing a vote on removing the Speaker, known as a “motion to vacate,” over the weekend spending deal. “If they totally botch it, we get no policy reforms, and we spend $1.66 trillion, I don’t know why we would keep him as Speaker,” Roy told conservative podcast host Steve Deace on Tuesday. “I’m leaving it on the table. I’m not going to say I’m going to file it tomorrow,” Roy continued. “I think the Speaker needs to know that we’re angry about it.” The top-line spending deal is largely in line with the spending caps and side-spending agreement struck as part of the debt limit deal negotiated by ousted former Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) last year — which fueled a full-on rebellion by hard-line conservatives. Rep. Tim Burchett (R-Tenn.), one of the eight Republicans who joined with Democrats to vote McCarthy out, said “a lot of people are talking about” a move to oust Johnson, but he is not on board — “yet.” “I’d say just give him a little time, but we’re running out of time,” Burchett said. With House Majority Leader Steve Scalise (R-La.) out until next month due to cancer treatment, it would take only three Republicans and all Democrats to force Johnson’s removal, assuming full attendance otherwise. But that same razor-thin majority, Johnson argues, is why Republicans have limited options for wins from the Democratic-controlled Senate and Biden administration. He’s called the spending deal the “best possible deal” conservatives could get with a divided government. He has touted wins on accelerating clawbacks of IRS funding and a $6.1 billion cut to pandemic funding. Johnson is “not concerned” about a move to force him out over the spending deal, he said at a Wednesday press conference. “Chip Roy is one of my closest friends. We agree on almost everything in principle,” Johnson said. “Look, leadership is tough. You take a lot of criticism. But remember, I am a hard-line conservative. That’s what they used to call me.” Many Republicans don’t take seriously the talk of ousting Johnson. “People are emotional all the time,” House Majority Whip Tom Emmer (R-Minn.) said when asked about the possibility. “They say all kinds of different things.” So far, no GOP members have explicitly called to oust Johnson. Rep. Andy Biggs (R-Ariz.), another one of the eight who moved against McCarthy, said he would prefer the House GOP work out its outrage without the motion to vacate.
Senate GOP caught off guard by talks of alternative spending deal: ‘Good luck’ -Senate Republicans were caught off guard on Thursday amid reports that House conservatives were talking with Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) about an alternative to the bipartisan spending deal announced just days ago. The push to renege on the deal Johnson struck with Democratic leaders — with just more than a week standing between Congress and a Jan. 19 partial shutdown deadline — sparked a mixture of surprise and groans from Republicans in the upper chamber, even as Johnson hasn’t committed to pulling out of the agreement. “That’s not gonna work,” Sen. Mitt Romney (R-Utah) said bluntly when asked about the news on Thursday. “Good luck,” Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska) said with apparent sarcasm regarding the effort. “I mean, the House is going to have to do what the House is going to do, but agreement has been reached, and let’s, let’s move on,” said Murkowski, a member of the Senate Appropriations Committee. Sen. Susan Collins (Maine), the top Republican on the appropriations panel, warned of greater chances of a shutdown next week if the House GOP pulls out of the recent deal. “It would be extremely difficult,” she said. Senate Republican Whip John Thune (R-S.D.) said, “They’ve got to figure it out. It sounds like they had an agreement, so I don’t know how they figure out a way to revise it, but that’s their call.” “I assume he’ll do everything he can to get the job done over there and hopefully he’ll have enough of the Republican caucus working with him who are interested in getting results that they’ll be able to get an outcome, but I don’t know how to predict it at this point. … I think he’s very sincere and wants to get results, but he has to manage an incredibly divided caucus and I assume at some point they’ll have to get it done in a bipartisan way because I don’t think there are people on our side of the aisle who will vote for anything.” Hard-line conservatives have sharply opposed Johnson’s recent top-line spending deal with Senate Democrats. That deal sets a $1.59 trillion top line for fiscal 2024 government funding, which is in line with the levels written in the Fiscal Responsibility Act that passed with bipartisan support last year. The deal would also allow for accelerated cuts to IRS funding and the clawback of billions of dollars in unused COVID-19 dollars. However, the deal also would allow for billions in additional funding for nondefense programs, which has conservatives fuming. Leaving Johnson’s office on Thursday, conservative hard-liners said they were crafting a new spending plan, but were mum on specifics. Johnson also hasn’t committed to an alternative plan. And there’s already skepticism in the conference about the chances of Johnson pulling out of the recent deal. “You can’t pull out a deal that was already cut,” Rep. Mario Díaz-Balart (R-Fla.), a spending cardinal, said Thursday. “You can’t do that … because then you can’t cut any deal, you can’t negotiate anymore. So, I doubt very much that will happen.” Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) said Johnson “needs to do whatever he can to keep his conference together.” Tillis, who noted his experience as a state House speaker, also said he doesn’t believe Johnson wants a shutdown. But, he added, “There are people in his party that do.” “They’re the same ones who were okay with us not having a Speaker for two weeks,” he said. Still, some Senate conservatives may be open to Johnson reneging on the deal if it means less spending. “We’re spending too much and borrowing too much,” Sen. Mike Braun (R-Ind.) said. “So. I think it’s sooner or later we’ve got to draw the line.”
Democrats reject Johnson’s border demands as part of Ukraine aid package -House Democrats wasted no time this week rejecting Speaker Mike Johnson’s (R-La.) demands for strict new border security measures in return for Ukraine aid, posing the latest obstacle in Congress’s efforts to move another round of military assistance for the embattled U.S. ally. Johnson said Wednesday House Republicans would oppose any new aid for Kyiv unless it was accompanied by major provisions of the GOP’s previously passed border bill, including the reinstallation of the “remain in Mexico” policy, begun under former President Trump, and hundreds of miles of new wall construction on the U.S.-Mexico border. “That border fight is coming, and we’re going to die on that hill,” he told the conservative radio pundit Hugh Hewitt. The remarks sparked an immediate backlash from House Democrats, who are supportive of new border security funding, but not the tough immigration restrictions favored by Republicans. They’re vowing to sink any Ukraine package that includes those provisions if Johnson brings it to the floor — a notable threat since Democratic votes would be needed to move the bill. “That would be ridiculous. Unfortunately it would be to the detriment of Ukraine if they did that,” Rep. Mark Pocan (D-Wis.) said. The border wall, in particular, has been a topic of fierce debate between the parties in recent years, and Johnson’s proposal was quickly panned by Democrats, who warned that they’ll never back a Ukraine package that included anything close to the 900 miles of new construction featured in the Republicans border bill. “That’s a non-starter for me, and I think for most of us,” Rep. Juan Vargas (D-Calif.) said. “I don’t think it’s realistic,” echoed Rep. Bennie Thompson (Miss.), the senior Democrat on the Homeland Security Committee. Rep. Raúl Grijalva (D-Ariz.) went a step further, accusing Republicans of offering pseudo-solutions to highly complex problems for the sole purpose of stirring up nativist voters. “That wall’s always been about political symbolism for Republicans, and it continues to be that,” Grijalva said. “The fact that it has failed, the fact that it costs money — wastes money — seems to be irrelevant. “I think it’s just the same rhetoric from the last 10 years.” The dispute over the appropriate response to the southern border crisis — and Johnson’s demands more specifically — have created just the latest hurdle in the months-long effort to get more military aid to Ukraine, which is reeling after almost two years under invasion by Russian forces and warning that supplies are dwindling. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky visited Capitol Hill in December to warn leaders in both parties of the perils facing his country — and the urgency underlying the additional aid. But the Senate negotiators scrambling to piece together a Ukraine-border security package have been unable to reach an agreement. And even if they do, it will face a much tougher road in the House, where a large and growing number of Republicans have grown wary of the long-running conflict and are vowing to oppose any new U.S. aid for Kyiv. The issue is posing an enormous headache for Johnson, who supports another round of Ukraine funding, and not even his demand for tough new border restrictions seems to be changing the dynamic. “No more funding for Ukraine. And that’s where I am completely different right now than the Speaker and others in my conference,” Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) said Thursday. “If he wants to give $60 billion in a deal with Democrats trading America’s border security, then he’s gonna find himself in deep trouble not only with me, but other conservatives in our conference and conservatives across America.” Under former Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.), House GOP leaders staged a test vote on Ukraine funding last September, and a majority of Republicans had opposed it — a significant development given that GOP leaders typically adhere by the “Hastert Rule,” avoiding any legislation that lacks the support of most of their conference. The issue was among the reasons cited by Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Fla.) when he launched the successful effort to oust McCarthy, and Johnson is now facing the same pressures from conservatives fighting to slash federal spending in the name of deficit reduction. “I don’t even want to fund my government if the administration won’t secure the border, let alone fund Ukraine’s government in exchange for defending America,” Rep. Warren Davidson (R-Ohio) said Thursday in an interview with CNN. Given the conservative unrest, some Democrats are speculating that Johnson is seeking to scuttle the new Ukraine funding by linking it to immigration provisions he knows Democrats will reject. That strategy would not only allow the Speaker to avoid a ferocious internal fight, but also provide him the political advantage of blaming the impasse on Democrats.
Speaker Johnson sticks by deal struck with Dems despite GOP complaints --Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) said he is sticking by a top-line spending deal that he struck with congressional Democrats and the White House this month amid calls from hard-line conservatives to scrap the plan and come up with an alternative. “After weeks of hard-fought negotiations, we achieved a strong top-line agreement that allows our appropriations committee and all those who work on this to complete the appropriations process. It’s an important part of keeping the government running,” Johnson said in a brief statement to the press. “Our topline agreement remains,” Johnson later said. “We are getting our next steps together, and we are working toward a robust appropriations process. So stay tuned for all that.” Johnson took no questions. His statement did not stop some of those pushing him to rip up the agreement from holding out hope that the Speaker could push for some of their alternative plans. “Well, he has not rescinded it yet. But I am quite certain he is legitimately considering alternatives,” said Rep. Bob Good (R-Va.), the chairman of the House Freedom Caucus. He called for lower spending levels and a change in border policies. A photo of Johnson’s prepared remarks snapped by a Bloomberg reporter revealed that the Speaker had slightly adjusted his statement from the prepared “we are sticking with the topline agreement” to “our topline agreement remains.” Good was among a group of hardliners who huddled with Johnson on the House floor just before the Speaker delivered his statement. The members this week have pushed Johnson to rip up the agreement that Johnson announced over the weekend, which is largely in line with the Fiscal Responsibility Act (FRA) spending caps and side-spending agreement with a $1.59 trillion plus around $69 billion in additional budget tweaks. But that push has been met with additional exasperation and frustration from other Republican appropriators and members — who are pushing Johnson to move forward with the current topline deal. Earlier in the morning, Johnson met with a group of moderate and swing-district lawmakers who urged him to stay the course. And contrary to Good’s statement, Rep. Don Bacon (R-Neb.) left that meeting with moderates saying — based on his “informed intuition” rather than an explicit statement from Johnson — that the Speaker is not considering trying to renegotiate the topline deal. In his statement to the press, Johnson said he is hearing from all sides. “In keeping up with my commitment to bring members into the legislative process, I’ve spoken and received feedback this week from many members all across the Republican Conference. That’s a very important part of this,” Johnson said. “When I became Speaker, I committed to decentralizing the speaker’s Speaker’s office and making this a member-driven process.” But he touted what he saw as wins from the Democratic-controlled Senate and White House in the spending deal, such as an additional clawback of pandemic aid and “The topline agreement includes hard-won concessions to cut more billions, as you know, from the IRS giveaway and the COVID-era slush funds,” Johnson said. “It replaces accounting gimmicks from the prior FRA [Fiscal Responsibility Act] agreement. And it brings Congress much closer to regular order, which is our big commitment here.” The squabbling over the topline agreement comes as the government faces a partial government shutdown deadline in just a week due to Jan. 19, and a full government shutdown deadline on Feb. 2. Rep. Scott Perry (R-Pa.), after huddling on the floor with Johnson and other hardliners, acknowledged that the ultimate decision rests with Johnson — “I’m not the Speaker,” he said — but was quick to tick off the short list of demands conservatives are pushing. “We would like to see much lower numbers — obviously, we’re bankrupting the country. And we would like to see border made an issue in this. Actual border security, not just laws that are going to be ignored. That’s essentially … where we are,” Perry said.
Democrats willing to help GOP Speaker save job — for a price - A handful of House Democrats say they’d step in to help Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) keep his gavel in the face of a potential conservative revolt — but it wouldn’t come free. Democrats willing to consider the matter said Johnson would first have to forge an agreement with House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) ensuring Democrats had a greater voice in the legislative process. In that case, they’d be willing to provide the votes to keep the Speaker in power. “Just like I told McCarthy: Talk to Hakeem, and there are some of us that can support you,” said Rep. Henry Cuellar (D-Texas), referring to former Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.), who was booted from his leadership post last year at the hands of disgruntled conservatives. “I’ll say the same thing [to Johnson].” Cuellar is not alone among Democrats floating the idea of a Johnson rescue. “He would have to be more willing than Kevin McCarthy was to sit down with Hakeem Jeffries and have a conversation about what it would take for us to be helpful. Kevin said to pound sand. He didn’t want the help,” said Rep. Dan Kildee (D-Mich.). “We wouldn’t be offering it as an act of charity,” Kildee continued. “We would say, ‘Look, if you need Democrats to govern, then you’re going to have to take Democratic input.’” To be sure, the odds of Johnson agreeing to such a power-sharing arrangement are minuscule, and there doesn’t seem to be an immediate threat to his gavel from the Republicans who toppled McCarthy. Still, Johnson’s recent endorsement of a bipartisan spending agreement has infuriated a small group of conservatives who are demanding that he retract his support for the deal and draft another proposal featuring sharper cuts to federal programs. Amid that internal GOP battle, at least two Republican firebrands — Reps. Chip Roy (Texas) and Marjorie Taylor Greene (Ga.) — are already floating the possibility that conservatives would file a motion to vacate the Speaker’s chair if Johnson doesn’t satisfy their demands. Greene criticized Roy for not ruling out a motion to remove Johnson over top-line spending deals but said she’d consider such a motion herself over U.S. aid to Ukraine, which could be a part of a larger spending package. “We don’t have to trade $60 billion for Ukraine for our own country’s border security,” Greene told reporters Friday in the Capitol. “That is a failing, losing strategy, and I will never support it. I’ll fight it as much as possible, even if I have to go so far to vacate the chair. And there’s others that agree with me.”
Congressional leaders reach deal to avert government shutdown - Congressional leaders have reached a deal to avert a government shutdown next week, landing on a two-step stopgap bill that will keep the lights on in Washington into March, according to three sources familiar with the proposal. Under the deal, the new government funding deadlines will be March 1 and March 7. The agreement comes ahead of Friday’s shutdown deadline, and a second deadline on Feb. 2. Text of the continuing resolution is expected to be posted online Sunday evening, according to a spokesperson for Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.). Republican leadership is scheduled to hold a conference call with members Sunday at 8 p.m., a GOP lawmaker told The Hill, which will likely include a discussion about the plan to avert a government shutdown. The proposal — which the House and Senate must approve by Friday night to avoid a partial shutdown — will give the House and Senate more time to complete work on the 12 appropriations bills. Congressional leaders announced a deal on top-line spending numbers last weekend, but appropriators need more time to hash out particulars in each funding bill. The announcement of the two-step continuing resolution is sure to anger conservative House Republicans, who are traditionally opposed to stopgap legislation and have been averse to GOP leadership cutting deals with Democrats. The two-step approach, however, is one that was largely favored by House conservatives during the shutdown showdown in November. The structure was seen as a way to avoid a massive, whole-of-government omnibus funding bill in December, which Republicans typically abhor. As an added wrinkle, hardliners have been demanding that border security be included in any government funding effort, pinning the politically prickly topic to the already convoluted shutdown showdown. Those dynamics mean that the deal will likely require significant Democratic support to get over the finish line in the House. The backing of another two-step continuing resolution, meanwhile, marks a reversal of sorts for Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.), who vowed in November not to put another stopgap bill on the floor. “The House Republican Conference is committed to never being in this situation again. I’m done with short-term CRs,” he said during a press conference shortly before the House approved a two-step stopgap bill. At a Wednesday press conference, however, with the shutdown clock ticking, he said he was “not ruling out anything.” House Republicans this week had been floating different types of stopgap bills. One option was a long-term continuing resolution, which would have triggered a one percent across-the-board cut, a mechanism included in the debt limit deal then-Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) struck with President Biden last year. Johnson asked a group of moderate Republicans if they could support a full-year continuing resolution during a meeting in his office Friday morning, and nearly all lawmakers said no, according to one attendee. He then hinted at a continuing resolution that would last through February or March to buy more time to complete work on all 12 spending bills, the source added. News of the agreement comes less than one week after Congressional leaders rolled out an agreement for top-line spending numbers, a significant step towards completing the appropriations process through regular order. The deal sets top-line spending at $1.59 trillion, plus around $69 billion in additional budget tweaks — largely in line with the spending caps included in the debt limit deal then-Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) struck with Biden last year that outraged Republicans. Johnson has highlighted some tweaks to that agreement, including accelerating clawbacks of IRS mandatory funding and additional clawbacks of unspent pandemic funds. Conservative House Republicans came out against the deal, urging Johnson to craft a different plan that included deeper spending cuts. On Friday, however, the Speaker said the agreement “remains” in place. But even as Johnson stuck by the deal, House Freedom Caucus Chairman Bob Good (R-Va.) insisted that he believed Johnson was still “legitimately considering alternatives.”
White House Throws Support Behind Using Frozen Russian Funds to Spend on Ukraine - The White House has thrown its support behind legislation that’s been introduced in Congress that would allow the use of frozen Russian central bank assets to fund Ukraine, Bloomberg reported.About $300 billion in Russian central bank assets was frozen by the US and its allies after Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022. The idea of outright stealing the money and giving it to Ukraine has been floated for a while, but the Biden administration has hesitated over the legality of the issue.US officials have also been concerned that spending the Russian funds could make other countries hesitant to keep funds in dollars or at the New York Federal Reserve Bank, and thus speed up global de-dollarization. But according to Bloomberg, the White House’s National Security Council said that it welcomed “in principle” the legislation introduced in Congress to seize the funds.“The bill would provide the authority needed for the executive branch to seize Russian sovereign assets for the benefit of Ukraine,” the NSC said in a memo to the Senate Foreign Relations Committee in November.House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) has also come out in favor of the plan. “It would be pure poetry to fund the Ukrainian war effort with Russian assets,” Johnson told The New York Post in November. “As you can imagine, that idea has been met with great enthusiasm on the Republican side. I suspect it will be with our colleagues on the other side as well. It’s an eminently responsible thing for us to do.”According to a summary of the bill, the Ukraine Support Fund could also be used to “support an international body or mechanism for (1) reconstruction and rebuilding efforts in Ukraine, (2) humanitarian assistance to the Ukrainian people, or (3) other purposes which support the recovery of Ukraine and the welfare of the Ukrainian people.”News of the White House support for the legislation comes as the Biden administration is struggling to get the over $60 billion in funding for the proxy war in Ukraine that it’s requested from Congress. Republicans are still holding out for a border deal, and it’s unclear when an agreement will be reached.Based on Russia’s foreign currency reserves at the time when they were frozen, there are about $67 billion in frozen Russian funds in the US. The bulk, approximately $200 billion, is frozen in Europe, and according to theBloomberg report, it’s unclear if the EU will be on board with the plan.
Pentagon Did Not Properly Track Over $1 Billion in Weapons Shipped to Ukraine - More than $1 billion in weapons that were shipped to Ukraine have not been properly tracked by the Pentagon, a report from the Defense Department’s inspector general has found.The report examined $1.699 billion in weapons sent to Ukraine that are subject to enhanced end-use monitoring (EEUM), which includes Javelin anti-tank missiles, Stinger anti-aircraft missiles, night vision goggles, AIM-9X air-to-air missiles, Advanced Medium-Range Air-to-Air Missiles, and other types of weaponry.The IG report found that the majority of the EEUM arms, nearly 40,000 weapons in total worth approximately $1.005 billion, have not been accounted for after being sent into Ukraine. Smaller, more portable weapons are subject to EEUM since they’re more likely to be smuggled and sold on the black market.Robert P. Storch, the Pentagon’s inspector general, said there’s “no record” of inventories being taken. “It doesn’t mean they’re not there, or they’re not being used,” he said, according to The New York Times. “[But] because of their sensitivity, their vulnerability to diversion, or misuse, or the consequences of that, it’s particularly important to have this additional tracking and accountability in place.” The US policy of pouring weapons into Ukraine has been done with very little oversight, and the shipments examined in the IG report are just a fraction of the over $40 billion in military equipment the US has provided or committed to Ukraine since the Russian invasion last year.
Blinken Slams South Africa's Genocide Case Against Israel as 'Meritless' - Secretary of State Antony Blinken has come out strongly against South Africa’s genocide case against Israel that was filed at the International Court of Justice (ICJ), calling it “meritless.” Blinken made the comments during a press conference in Israel. “The charge of genocide is meritless,” he said. Blinken also called the case “galling” and claimed it distracted from efforts to work toward peace, but the US opposes the idea of a ceasefire in Gaza and continues to provide unconditional military support for the Israeli slaughter despite the massive civilian casualty rate.During his visit to Israel, Blinken said the civilian death toll in Gaza is “far too high,” especially among children. But he gave no indication that the US is thinking about changing its policy of full-throated support for Israel, and US officials have repeatedly affirmed that the idea isn’t even being discussed.South Africa’s 84-page application to the ICJ says Israel’s actions “are genocidal in character because they are intended to bring about the destruction of a substantial part” of the Palestinian population of Gaza. The filing cites the massive civilian death toll, the siege tactics that include food deprivation, and the genocidal rhetoric from Israeli officials. If Israel is found guilty of committing genocide at the ICJ, Blinken and other US officials would be implicated since they have provided so much support for the Israeli campaign.The first hearings for the genocide case will take place at the ICJ in The Hague this Thursday and Friday. While a ruling could take years, South Africa is asking the court to quickly declare Israel is committing acts that might be genocidal and to issue an interim order to halt military operations.The ICJ does not have the power to enforce the order, but it would be a major diplomatic blow for Israel and the US and would increase international pressure. Israel is working hard against the case and is asking its embassies to press officials in their host countries to issue statements denouncing the case, like Blinken and the White House have done.
Tony Blinken Is A Cold-Blooded Sociopath by Caitlin Johnstone -- US secretary of state Antony Blinken just referred to the US-sponsored assassination of yet another journalist in Gaza as a “terrible tragedy”, as though the reporter was struck by lightning or died in a car crash or something.Speaking at a press conference in Qatar on Sunday, Blinken was asked to comment on the murder of Al Jazeera journalist Hamza Dahdouh, who was killed in Gaza by an Israeli airstrike on a car has was traveling in with two other journalists, one of whom also died. Hamza Dahdouh was the eldest son of Al Jazeera’s Gaza bureau chief Wael Dahdouh, whose wife, son, daughter and baby grandson were murdered in another Israeli airstrike in late October.In response to an Al Jazeera reporter’s question about whether the United States condemns the murder of innocent journalists, Blinken replied as follows:“I am deeply, deeply sorry for the almost unimaginable loss suffered by your colleague Wael al-Dahdouh. I am a parent myself. I can’t begin to imagine the horror that he’s experienced, not once, but now twice. This is an unimaginable tragedy, and that’s also been the case for, as I said, far too many innocent Palestinian men, women, and children — civilians, also journalists, Palestinian and other.” Blinken went on to acknowledge the scores of journalists who have been killed in Gaza, saying that this shows the need to get humanitarian aid into the enclave and achieve a lasting peace. What Blinken did not do is issue anything resembling a condemnation of Israel and the clear and demonstrable fact that it has been highly focused on the task of murdering journalists in Gaza. He just offered his deepest condolences for Dahdouh’s death, framed it as a passive “tragedy” instead of an active assassination using highly sophisticated military technology under the sponsorship and support of the United States, and moved on.It’s hard to say who’s worse, the far-right Israelis who openly revel in the butchery they are inflicting in Gaza, or the liberal Americans who directly sponsor that butchery and then look you dead in the eye and tell you how deeply, sincerely sorry they are to hear that another person in Gaza has died in a tragic accident. Blinken is always doing sociopathic stuff like this. Late last month he tweeted, “This has been an extraordinarily dangerous year for press around the world. Many killed, many more wounded, hundreds detained, attacked, threatened, injured — simply for doing their jobs. I am profoundly grateful to the press for getting accurate, timely information to people.” I mean, can you believe the gall of this freak? As though his own administration wasn’t responsible for most of those killings. As though Israel has not spent the last three months directing wildly disproportionate firepower at the places it knows journalists are hiding. He’s standing there on top of a pile of corpses while mournfully shaking his head about their tragic unfortunate deaths.
Rage Over Gaza: Washington Will Pay for Its Support of Israel - - Arabs, Muslims – in fact, the whole world – are watching, listening, reading and are getting angrier by the day, at the direct American role in facilitating the Gaza bloodbath. Israel’s military campaign in Gaza “has wreaked more destruction than the razing of Syria’s Aleppo between 2012 and 2016, Ukraine’s Mariupol or, proportionally, the Allied bombing of Germany in World War II” and “now sits among the deadliest and most destructive in recent history,” the Associated Press reported, based on recent satellite data analysis. Aside from the tens of thousands of dead and missing in the rubble, even a higher number of people have been injured and maimed, including thousands of children. Countless children are left “grappling with the loss of an arm or a leg,” according to UNICEF. This agony of Gaza is being watched on television and is also being viewed through every possible medium of communication. It is as if the world is suffering along with the Gaza children, but without being able to stop or slow down the genocide.And, yet, even when all European countries, save a few, reversed their position on the war, joining the rest of the world in demanding an immediate and comprehensive ceasefire, Washington continued to reject these calls. This is how US Ambassador to the United Nations, Linda Thomas-Greenfield, justified her country’s use of the veto, striking down the first serious attempt by the UN Security Council to achieve a permanent truce on October 18: “Israel has the inherent right of self-defense as reflected in Article 51 of the UN Charter.” That same logic has been repeated many times by US officials since then, even when the extent of the Gaza tragedy became known to everyone, including the Americans themselves. This self-serving logic goes against the very spirit of international and humanitarian law, which vehemently rejects the targeting of civilians during times of war and conflict, and the prevention of humanitarian aid from reaching civilian victims of war. Indeed, the vast majority of Gaza’s victims are civilians and, according to UNICEF, over 70 percent of all of those killed and wounded are women and children.Moreover, due to the inhumane Israeli practices, Gaza survivors are nowdealing with an actual famine, an unprecedented event in the modern history of Palestine. Yet, Israel continues to prevent the access to food, medicine, fuel and other urgent supplies to Gaza, thus violating Washington’s own laws on the matter. “No assistance shall be furnished to any country when it is made known to the President that the government of such country prohibits or otherwise restricts, directly or indirectly, the transport or delivery of US humanitarian assistance,” the US Foreign Assistance Act (Section 620I) states. The Biden Administration has done nothing to pressure – let alone force – Israel to adhere to the most basic humanitarian laws in its ongoing genocide in Gaza. Worse, President Biden is furnishing Israel with the needed tools to prolong this destructive war. According to a December 25 report by Israel’s Channel 12, more than 20 ships and 244 US airplanes have delivered over 10,000 tons of armaments and military equipment to Israel since the start of the war.These military supplies include, according to the Wall Street Journal, at least 100 BLU-109, 2,000-pound bunker-buster bombs, which have been repeatedly used throughout the Israeli war, killing and wounding hundreds each time.The only tangible action that the US has taken since the start of the war was to create a coalition, named ‘Operation Prosperity Guardian’, with the sole purpose of ensuring the safety of ships crossing the Red Sea, into or from Israel. The US, however, seems to have learned nothing from the past, from its devastating wars on Iraq, from the so-called ‘war on terror’, from its failure to find a balance between its support for Israel and its respect for Palestinians, Arabs and Muslims. To the contrary, some US officials seem to be entirely detached from this reality. At a press conference at the White House on December 7, US National Security Council Coordinator for Strategic Communications, John Kirby, proclaimed: “Tell me, name me, one more nation, any other nation, that is doing as much as the United States to alleviate the pain and suffering of the people of Gaza. You can’t. You just can’t.” If Kirby is unaware of his country’s role in the genocide in Gaza, then the crisis in American foreign policy is worse than we could have imagined. If he is aware, and he should be, then his country’s moral crisis is arguably unprecedented in modern history.
This Genocide Is Being Live-Streamed. We Can't Say We Didn't Know. by Caitlin Johnstone --- How is anyone still talking about October 7? What Israel has done since October 7 is many times worse than what happened on that day by any conceivable metric; the only way to feel otherwise is to believe Israeli lives are worth many times more than Palestinian lives. How is Israeli suffering still being centered over vastly less significant acts of violence three months ago while exponentially worse violence and suffering is being inflicted by Israelis right this very moment?If your nation is attacked, and you respond to that attack by immediately murdering thousands of children with incredible savagery, then you forfeit any right to expect anyone to give a shit that your nation was attacked.Israel responded to the Hamas attack by doing something much, much worse than anything Hamas has ever done, and in so doing completely delegitimizing itself as a state and completely validating everything the Palestinian resistance has been saying about the state of Israel since day one.This genocide is being live-streamed. We can’t say we didn’t know. For as long as we live we’ll never be able to say we didn’t know.Biden is everything people feared Trump would be. A genocidal monster facilitating racially motivated murder and ethnic cleansing while rapidly accelerating toward a nuclear-age world war. Nothing Trump did was as evil as what Biden has been doing. Biden is the real Trump.Israel is in a nonstop state of conflict largely because it is such an artificial creation. Most states emerge in a more organic way out of the geographical, political and cultural circumstances of the land and the people in their unique slice of spacetime. Israel emerged because some people who didn’t live anywhere near the land of Palestine got some narratives in their heads involving an ancient religion and its adherents, and dropped a newly created country on top of a civilization that already existed there which had emerged organically out of the circumstances of the region.People came in from other nations all over the world, resurrected a dead language which had until then only remained used in religious rituals and called it their native tongue, and slapped together a 20th century nation and started LARPing that it was their native land. This caused massive shockwaves throughout the region because it didn’t happen in accordance with the organic geopolitical and cultural circumstances of the land and its people. It was an alien artificial construct from top to bottom, thrust upon a region for which it had no natural context or receptivity.Because it was such an unnatural foreign imposition, the political circumstances of the middle east have ever since been rejecting it like a body rejecting an ill-matched organ transplant. This natural response is treated as unnatural unprovoked hostility from the people of the invading artificial construct, which invents more narratives to justify its violent actions against the inhabitants of the region. The west’s cultural obsession with WWII has made everyone dumber, because now everyone we want to fight is always Hitler and we’re always the Brave Good Guys who are fighting Hitler.Nothing about Israel’s US-backed assault on Gaza is comparable to the Allied offensive against Nazi Germany. They’re raining military explosives onto a trapped and besieged population in a giant concentration camp with the stated goal of eliminating a small militant group who poses exactly zero existential threat to the state of Israel, in response to an attack which was 100 percent provoked by the abuses of the apartheid Israeli regime.Comparing the Gaza assault to the war against Hitler is like comparing a mass shooting to the war against Hitler, and saying the shooter is the Allied forces. It’s a completely foam-brained talking point that’s espoused solely by idiots and warmongers.
Protesters Calling for Gaza Ceasefire Interrupt Biden Speech - Protesters calling for a ceasefire in Gaza interrupted President Biden during a speech at the Emanuel African Methodist Episcopal Church in Charleston, South Carolina, the scene of the 2015 shooting committed by Dylan Roof that killed nine people.“If you really care about the lives lost here, you should honor the lives lost and call for a cease-fire in Gaza,” one protester shouted. Others then began chanting, “ceasefire now.”As the protesters were escorted out, Biden’s supporters chanted, “four more years,” and the president said he understood the “passion” of the people who interrupted his speech.Biden then claimed that he’s been “quietly working with the Israeli government to get them to reduce and significantly get out of Gaza.” But he continues to provide unconditional military support for the Israeli slaughter, which has killed over 22,000 Palestinians so far, and US officials have repeatedly affirmed there are no serious discussions about limiting or leveraging aid. There has been increasing dissent within the Biden administration and the Democratic Party against President Biden’s full-throated support for the mass killing of Palestinians. The incident at the Emanuel African Methodist Episcopal Church was at least the third time in recent weeks that pro-Gaza ceasefire protesters interrupted one of his speeches, demonstrating the conflict will be a major issue he has to face while running for re-election. Seventeen Biden campaign staffers recently signed a letter to President Biden protesting his support for Israel’s campaign. The letter said: “Biden for President staff have seen volunteers quit in droves, and people who have voted blue for decades feel uncertain about doing so for the first time ever, because of this conflict.”
US and UK Bomb Dozens of Sites in Yemen - The US and the UK on Thursday night launched strikes against more than a dozen sites in Houthi-controlled areas of Yemen, where the majority of Yemenis live, in a move that risks escalating the situation in the Middle East into a major regional war.A US official told CNN that the strikes were launched by fighter jets and Tomahawk missiles fired by warships and submarines and that Houthi drone and missile sites were targeted. Yemeni media reported strikes in several cities, including the capital, Sanaa, and the Red Sea port of Hodeidah. President Biden said in a statement that the strikes received support from Australia, Canada, the Netherlands, and Bahrain. He claimed that the US and Britain “successfully conducted strikes against a number of targets in Yemen used by Houthi rebels to endanger freedom of navigation.” The bombing of Yemen came in response to Houthi attacks on Israel-linked shipping in the Red Sea that started in protest of the US-backed Israeli onslaught in Gaza. The Houthis, officially known as Ansar Allah, have vowed not to back down in the face of the US military and said their attacks in the Red Sea will only stop once the Israeli slaughter in Gaza ends. So far, there have been no reports of the number of casualties caused by the US and British strikes. The US and its allies have a history of killing civilians in Yemen, as the UN estimated in 2021 that about 377,000 people were killed by the US-backed Saudi/UAE war against the Houthis that started in 2015. More than half died of starvation and disease caused by the blockade and the coalition’s brutal bombing campaign. Some members of Congress have criticized President Biden for launching the strikes in Yemen without congressional authorization. “The President needs to come to Congress before launching a strike against the Houthis in Yemen and involving us in another middle east conflict. That is Article I of the Constitution,” Rep. Ro Khanna (D-CA) wrote on X.
Yemen Issues Defiant Response to US and UK Strikes - A day after dozens of US and UK bombs and missiles rained down on northern Yemen, tens of thousands took to the streets in a show of unity. Yemeni officials downplayed the impact of the Western strikes claiming a small number of casualties and minor infrastructure damage.On Thursday night, the US and UK fired scores of munitions at Yemen. US Central Command claimed that the strikes “targeted radar systems, air defense systems, and storage and launch sites for one-way attack unmanned aerial systems, cruise missiles, and ballistic missiles.” Washington reports striking 60 targets across 16 locations.According to the Guardian, British forces hit targets in northwest Yemen, while Americans targeted larger cities including Saada, Saana, and Hodeida. Both the airport and port in Hodeida were reported to be targets. The Port of Hodeida is crucial for commerce and for badly needed aid to reach the country.On Friday, the Houthis reported the Western strikes had a minimal impact. Yemeni officials reported five fighters were killed and six wounded. The Houthis said damage to their infrastructure was limited but attacks would not go “unanswered and unpunished.” Nasr Aldeen Amer, vice president of the Houthi Media Authority, stated“Without hesitation, and we will not back down from our position in supporting the Palestinian people, whatever the cost.” At least tens of thousands of Yemenis turned out in multiple cities the day after the strike in a show of unity.The US and UK are bombing Yemen as a spillover of Israel’s brutal war in Gaza. The Houthis have pledged to stop all Israeli-linked shipping in the Red Sea in an effort to pressure Tel Aviv to end its military campaign against the besieged Gaza Strip.Washington and London claim the Houthis attempt to block Israeli shipping violates “freedom of navigation” and international law. However, the US has helped Saudi Arabia enforce a blockade of Yemen for about nine years.
Saudi Arabia Calls for US To 'Avoid Escalation' in Yemen - Saudi Arabia is asking the White House to show restraint in Yemen and avoid further escalating fighting with the Houthis. Riyadh is one of Washington’s closest partners in the Middle East and has been at war with the Houthis for nine years but is nearing an agreement to end the war with Saana. On Thursday, the US and UK targeted 16 sites in Yemen with at least 60 rockets and missiles. Pentagon spokesman Patrick Ryder claimed the strikes had a “good effect.” Yemeni officials say the bombs did minor damage and killed five figures. Houthi leaders pledged to respond to the US and UK attacks. A White House statement after the attack warned that Biden “will not hesitate to direct further measures to protect our people and the free flow of international commerce, as necessary.” However, Saudi Arabia expressed “great concern” about the Western airstrikes and called for “self-restraint and to avoid escalation.” Riyadh is one of Washington’s core partners in the Middle East. Saudi Arabia went to war with Yemen in 2015 after the Houthis seized power. The US backed the Saudi war in Yemen, providing Riyadh with weapons, intelligence, and logistical support in the war. The Saudi war in Yemen targeted large portions of Yemen’s civilian infrastructure, creating a grave humanitarian crisis. At least 377,000 Yemenis died in the Saudi-led war. Contributing to the starvation that claimed the lives of tens of thousands of children was a blockade of Yemen, enforced by the US and Saudi Arabia. A ceasefire brought cross-border attacks between Saudi Arabia and Yemen to an end in 2022. The UN reports that the Houthis are now nearing a peace agreement with Riyadh that would bring the war to a conclusion. If the US continues to strike Yemen by hitting targets in the Middle East and East Africa, including those in Saudi Arabia, this may well bring the fragile truce in Yemen to an end.
White House Conducts Additional Strike in Yemen -The US followed up its widespread bombing of Yemen by conductinganother strike early Saturday morning. The second attack came as Biden is facing criticism among his political and Middle East allies for starting a war with the Houthis.US officials reported that Saturday’s strike targeted a radar facility that was missed during Thursday night’s initial attack. US Central Command posted on X, “The strike was conducted by the USS Carney (DDG 64) using Tomahawk Land Attack Missiles and was a follow-on action on a specific military target associated with strikes taken on Jan. 12.” The initial attack was conducted jointly by the US and UK. Washington and London targeted nearly 30 positions across Yemen with scores of missiles and bombs. Pentagon Spokesperson Gen. Pat Ryder said the attack had a “good effect.” However, Yemen issued a defiant response. Tens of thousands of Yemenis took to the streets across the country to protest the Western attack. Houthi leaders downplayed the impact of the strikes and vowed a response to the attack.The Biden administration claimed the strikes were needed to restore freedom of navigation in the Red Sea. The Houthis, who control north Yemen and most of the country’s population, have hijacked one ship and attacked about two dozen others transiting the Red Sea. The Houthis say they are targeting Israeli-linked ships because Tel Aviv is conducting a genocide in Gaza.The White House’s assertion that the strikes are justified to ensure international trade is questionable. For most of the past nine years, Washington and Riyadh have maintained a blockade of Yemen, leading to a humanitarian crisis in the Middle East’s poorest country. The US has also attempted to substantially restrict trade with North Korea, Cuba, Venezuela, Russia, China, Syria, Afghanistan, and Iran.Biden’s authority to order the strikes in a country against which Congress has not authorized a war is in question. “The President needs to come to Congress before launching a strike against the Houthis in Yemen and involving us in another Middle East conflict. That is Article I of the Constitution,” Rep. Ro Khanna posted on X. Democratic lawmakers Rep. Pramila Jayapal, Rep. Val Hoyle, Rep. Rashida Tlaib, Rep. Cori Bush, Rep. Mark Pocan, Rep. Barbara Lee, and Rep. Sarah Jacobs have also publicly attacked Biden over the strikes in Yemen.
Western Empire Bombs Yemen To Protect Israel's Genocide Operations In Gaza by Caitlin Johnstone - The US and UK have reportedly struck over a dozen sites in Yemen using Tomahawk missiles and fighter jets, backed by logistical support from Australia, Canada, Bahrain and the Netherlands. A statement from President Biden asserts that the strikes against “targets in Yemen used by Houthi rebels” are a “direct response to unprecedented Houthi attacks against international maritime vessels in the Red Sea”. What Biden does not mention in his statement about his administration’s “response” to Houthi attacks on ships in the Red Sea is the fact that those Red Sea attacks are themselves a response to Israeli crimes against humanity in Gaza. Also unmentioned is the fact that the strikes took place after the first day of proceedings in the International Court of Justice in which Israel stands accused by South Africa of committing a genocide in Gaza.So the US and the UK just bombed the poorest country in the middle east for trying to stop a genocide. Not only that, they bombed the very same country in which they just spent years backing Saudi Arabia’s genocidal atrocities whichkilled hundreds of thousands of people between 2015 and 2022 in an unsuccessful bid to stop the Houthis from taking power. The Houthis, formally known as Ansarallah, threatened ahead of the attack to fiercely retaliate against any strikes from the US and its allies. Abdulmalik al-Houthi, who leads the Houthi movement, said that the response to any American attack “will be greater than” a recent Houthi offensive which used dozens of drones and several missiles.“We, the Yemeni people, are not among those who are afraid of America,” al-Houthi said in a televised speech. “We are comfortable with a direct confrontation with the Americans.”An unnamed US official who informed Huffington Post’s Akbar Shahid Ahmed about the imminent strikes on Yemen shortly before they occurred complainedthat the airstrikes “will not solve the problem” and that the approach “doesn’t add up to a cohesive strategy.” Ahmed has previously reported that behind the scenes, officials in this administration have been getting increasingly nervous about the risk of Bidenigniting a wider war in the middle east. This latest escalation, along with the Houthi pledge to retaliate, adds a lot of weight to this concern.
Westerners Have An Absolutely Psychotic View Of Airstrikes by Caitlin Johnstone -- Canadian online outlet The Breach has published a letter by CBC’s senior manager of journalistic standards Nancy Waugh which highlights perfectly the bizarre psychological relationship that westerners have with bombs and airstrikes in foreign countries.In response to multiple complaints from a retired Humber College professor about the wildly biased language that Canada’s state broadcaster has been using to describe Israel’s war on Gaza, Waugh acknowledged that the CBC routinely uses words like “murderous,” “vicious,” “brutal,” “massacre,” and “slaughter” to refer to the October 7 Hamas attack while using far less emotionally charged words like “intensive,” “unrelenting,” and “punishing” to describe Israel’s actions in Gaza over the last three months. Waugh defended this extreme discrepancy by saying that Israel’s attacks in Gaza differ from the Hamas attack on Israelis in that Israel’s killings are done “remotely”.“Different words are used because although both result in death and injury, the events they describe are very different,” Waugh wrote. “The raid saw Hamas gunmen stream through the border fence and attack Israelis directly with firearms, knives and explosives. Gunmen chased down festival goers, assaulted kibbutzniks then shot them, fought hand to hand, and threw grenades. The attack was brutal, often vicious, and certainly murderous.”“Bombs dropped from thousands of feet and artillery shells lofted into Gaza from kilometers away result in death and destruction on a massive scale, but it is carried out remotely,” Waugh continued. “The deadly results are unseen by those who caused them and the source unseen by those [who] suffer and die.” Military explosives rip human bodies apart. They burn people alive. They trap them under rubble where they die excruciatingly slowly in one of the most horrifying ways imaginable. They leave people without limbs. They dismember and disfigure children for life. Many of the most agonizing deaths in human history have been caused by bombs.There are thousands of Gazans who have yet to be counted among the dead because their bodies are still buried under the rubble of fallen buildings. Many of them would not have died instantly. Some are still alive, waiting for days in a state terror and searing pain for a rescue that will never come. A UNICEF report released last month said that more than a thousand children had had one or both legs amputated since October 7 as a result of damage received by US-sponsored Israeli airstrikes, a number which would be significantly higher by now. We know that many such amputations haveoccurred without anaesthesia, because Israeli siege warfare has cut off Gaza’s healthcare system from the necessary supplies.If this is not vicious, then nothing is vicious. If this is not brutal, then nothing is brutal. If this is not murderous, then nothing is murderous. But it doesn’t get labeled as such by the western press, because it is being done “remotely”. The belief that these attacks should be considered less vicious and brutal because they are launched from a distance by people who won’t see their effects is as psychologically immature as a little girl who believes you can’t see her because she has covered her own eyes. An attack which kills and maims and tortures doesn’t cease to be brutal and vicious just because it looks like a blip on a screen to you. Human suffering isn’t made less acute or less significant by being far away. In reality, bombings are no less savage than attacks by guns, grenades, knives or machetes. In fact they actually allow for more savagery to take place, because they kill so much more efficiently, and because the troops who use them can keep killing and killing without losing morale and accumulating mental trauma from the horrors they have been inflicting upon their fellow human beings. Dead is dead. Dismembered is dismembered. Pain is pain. Anguish is anguish. The unexamined assumption that the western empire’s prefered methods of killing are less brutal and murderous than those of an impoverished militant group is a psychological defense mechanism we have put in place to shelter ourselves from knowledge of our own brutality and murderousness. In truth if you look at all the death, destruction, suffering and pain that Israel has inflicted on Gaza since October 7, there is no question that Israel is vastly more vicious, brutal and murderous than Hamas has ever been, and so are its allies who are supporting its actions. The only way to believe otherwise would be to psychologically hide away from the reality of what’s actually happening, which is as truth-based and mature as the kid with her hands over her eyes saying “Now you can’t see me!”
State Department: Arab nations will partner with US on Gaza if Israel gets on board Secretary of State Antony Blinken has returned from a seven-day trip in the Middle East, where he visited nine countries to discuss the ongoing war between Israel and Hamas and the conflicts that threaten a wider regional war.According to his spokesperson, Matt Miller, the Arab nations are ready to partner with the U.S. on short-term and long-term solutions for Palestinians in Gaza, but only if Israel is willing to get on board.“We’ve traveled through to nine countries and met with leaders in each of those, and was able to secure agreements with all of these Arab partners, as well as with Turkey, that they were ready to have those conversations, they were ready to coordinate with the United States and they were ready to take real steps to improve the lives of the Palestinian people in Gaza and to look at how to rebuild Gaza and establish Palestinian-led governance in Gaza,” Miller told MSNBC’s Andrea Mitchell on Friday.“But they were only willing to do that if they had a partner on the other side in Israel and if Israel was ready to take real concrete steps to establish an independent Palestinian state,” Miller continued.Blinken traveled to Turkey, Greece, Jordan, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Saudi Arabia, Israel, Egypt and the West Bank to continue diplomatic discussions as tensions in the region have spiked surrounding the Israel-Hamas war.The most recent trip was Blinken’s fourth visit to the region since Hamas invaded Israel on Oct. 7 in a surprise attack that killed 1,200 Israelis and took more than 200 hostages. In the months since, Israel has pursued a deadly and destructive counteroffensive that has killed more than 23,000 Palestinians and displaced nearly all of the region’s population. Miller said during the most recent trip, there “really was a difference” because the Arab partners they spoke with after the initial attacks were not ready to discuss the reconstruction, security and governance in Gaza, but now they are.Blinken reportedly had a “very candid conversation” with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and other Israeli government officials about the partners the country would gain in the Arab world if it were to agree on the future of Gaza.“But look, it’s going to require tough choices, and not just tough choices from Arab partners in the region, but really tough choices from Israel,” Miller said. “And so, the United States can’t make those tough choices for Israel. We can’t make those tough choices for any of these countries.”
Iraq's Prime Minister Moves to Expel US Troops After Drone Strike - Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani said Friday that his government is beginning the process that will lead to the expulsion of foreign forces, which includes about 2,500 US troops.“We are setting the date for the start of the bilateral committee to put arrangements to end the presence of the international coalition forces in Iraq permanently,” al-Sudani said, according to a statement released by his office.The statement came a day after a US drone strike in Baghdad killed a deputy commander of the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF), an umbrella group of mostly Shia militias that’s part of the Iraqi government’s security forces. The PMF was initially formed in 2014 to fight ISIS.“The Popular Mobilization Forces represent an official presence affiliated with the state, subject to it, and an integral part of our armed forces,” al-Sudani said. “We condemn the attacks targeting our security forces, which go beyond the spirit and letter of the mandate that created the international coalition.”The US said the drone strike was in retaliation for attacks on US bases in Iraq and Syria that started in October due to President Biden’s full-throated support for Israel’s onslaught in Gaza. The US claimed the man they targeted, Mushtaq Talib al-Saidi, also known as Abu Taqwa, was involved in the attacks but provided no evidence for the claim.The US has launched several rounds of airstrikes, and al-Sudani’s government, the supposed partner of the US, condemned each one. The Iraqi government said the latest US strike was “no different from a terrorist act.”The US-led international coalition in Iraq justifies its presence as part of the fight against ISIS. But al-Sudani has said the ISIS remnants that are left in the country could be handled by Iraqi forces.
Iraq's Prime Minister Says He Seeks a 'Quick' Exit of US Forces - Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani has reiterated his desire toend the presence of US and other international forces in Iraq and said he is looking to negotiate a “quick” exit, although so far no deadline has been set.“There is a need to reorganize this relationship so that it is not a target or justification for any party, internal or foreign, to tamper with stability in Iraq and the region,” al-Sudani told Reuters on Tuesday.US forces in Iraq and Syria have come under frequent rocket attacks since October due to President Biden’s support for Israel’s slaughter in Gaza. The US has launched several rounds of airstrikes in response, including a recent drone strike in Baghdad that killed an Iraqi militia leader. Al-Sudani strongly condemned the strike as a violation of sovereignty.After the drone strike, al-Sudani said he was taking steps to expel the US-led coalition in Iraq that’s there nominally to fight ISIS. But the presence is more about the US’s efforts to counter Iran’s influence in the country, as al-Sudani has said Iraqi security forces can handle the last remnants of ISIS.Al-Sudani said on Tuesday that there should be “a process of understanding and dialogue” to negotiate an end to the international coalition’s presence. “Let’s agree on a time frame that is, honestly, quick, so that they don’t remain long and the attacks keep happening,” he said.He added that the only way to reduce tensions in the region is for Israel to end its siege on Gaza. “This is the only solution. Otherwise, we will see more expansion of the arena of conflict in a sensitive region for the world that holds much of its energy supply,” he said.
Pentagon Says US Has No Plans to Withdraw From Iraq - The Pentagon said Monday that it has no plans to withdraw from Iraqdespite Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani saying he’s taking steps to expel the US-led international coalition that’s based in the country. “Right now, I’m not aware of any plans (to plan for withdrawal). We continue to remain very focused on the defeat ISIS mission,” said Pentagon spokesman Brig. Gen. Pat Ryder. He added that he’s not aware of “any notifications by the Iraqi government to the Department of Defense” about a withdrawal. Al-Sudani made the comments about moving toward a withdrawal on Friday after the US launched a drone strike in Baghdad that killed a deputy commander of the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF), an umbrella group of mainly Shia militias that’s part of Iraq’s security forces.“We are setting the date for the start of the bilateral committee to put arrangements to end the presence of the international coalition forces in Iraq permanently,” al-Sudani said. He said the PMF represents “an official presence affiliated with the state, subject to it, and an integral part of our armed forces.”Al-Sudani’s government strongly condemned the US drone strike in Baghdad as a violation of sovereignty and said it was “no different from a terrorist act.” The US claimed the person killed in the drone strike was responsible for attacks on US troops that started in Iraq and Syria in October in response to President Biden’s full-throated support for the Israeli slaughter in Gaza but has provided no evidence for the claim. POLITICO later reported that al-Sudani has privately expressed to the US that he’s interested in negotiating a continued US military presence and that his statement on ending it was “an attempt to satisfy domestic political audiences.” However, the report also said it’s possible the “political machinations inside the Iraqi parliament force him to take steps to remove American forces.”
Iran Seizes Tanker in Retaliation for the US Stealing Its Oil - Iran seized an American tanker in the Gulf of Oman on Thursday in retaliation for the US previously seizing the same tanker and stealing a shipment of Iranian oil that it was carrying. In April 2023, the US forced the tanker, formerly named Suez Rajan, to sail to Texas when it was carrying 800,000 barrels of Iranian oil using the pretext of sanctions enforcement. The ship sat off the coast of Texas for months as Iran was warning of retaliation if it was discharged, and American companies did not want to be involved. But the oil, worth approximately $56 million, was eventually transferred to another tanker in August 2023. Iran’s Fars news agency reported on Thursday: “Following the violation of the Suez Rajan in April and the theft of Iranian oil by the United States, the oil tanker renamed St. Nicholas was seized in retaliation this morning by the court order and the approval of the Ports and Shipping Organization by the strategic Navy of the Islamic Republic of Iran Army and transferred to Iranian ports.” The report said the tanker was taken because it had stolen cargo belonging to Iran at the direction of the US. The St. Nicholas was seized after it was loaded with oil in Basra, Iraq, and was bound for Aliaga, Turkey, via the Suez Canal. The US has a history of seizing tankers carrying Iranian oil and gas and outright stealing the cargo by selling it off for profit, and Iran has previously seized tankers in retaliation for US actions. In 2022, the US seized a tanker carrying Iranian oil in Greece and attempted to take the cargo, but a Greek court ruled against the confiscation. Tehran seized two Greek tankers in response to the US move and released them after the court’s ruling. In 2021, the US government sold 2 million barrels of Iranian oil for $110 million from a tanker seized near the UAE. During the Trump administration, the US sold off Iranian gas that was bound for Venezuela.
Officials Warn Biden Is Leading the US Into a Major Middle East War - As tensions are soaring in the Middle East due to the brutal Israeli assault on Gaza, US officials are warning that President Biden’s decisions could lead to a major regional war.US officials told HuffPost that if Israel provokes a full-blown war in southern Lebanon, the consequences could be catastrophic. “Every scenario shows this would escalate into something terrible… whether in terms of counterterrorism or war with Iran,” one official said.The official said many in the Biden administration feared unconditional US support for Israel could embolden Israeli officials to expand operations into Lebanon. Last week, Israel significantly escalated the situation by launching a drone strike in Beirut that killed a senior Hamas official who was involved in hostage negotiations.“I’ve been trying to keep an avalanche from falling on Lebanon and so have a lot of people,” the US official said. “The problem is no one can rein in Biden, and if Biden has a policy, he’s the commander-in-chief ― we have to carry it out. That’s what it comes down to, very, very, very, unfortunately.”Another US official said that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, and Strategic Affairs Minister Ron Dermer are “hell-bent on seizing this moment to expand the war into southern Lebanon and deliver some mythical imagined death blow to Hezbollah.”US officials also told POLITICO that the administration is drawing up plans to respond to a “protracted regional conflict.” Lebanon is just one area where Israel’s assault on Gaza is spilling out into the region, as the US and its allies are threatening to strike the Houthis in Yemen over their attacks on Israel-linked commercial shipping in the Red Sea, and the US is already in a low-level conflict with Shia militias in Iraq and Syria that could explode.Instead of pressuring Israel to end its brutal assault on Gaza and ease tensions with Hezbollah, President Biden is opting for regional escalation as he continues to provide Israel with full-throated military and political support. The officials speaking to HuffPost reaffirmed that the Biden administration is not considering placing any conditions on military aid to Israel.
Biden Is Everything People Feared Trump Would Be by Caitlin Johnstone -- In an article titled “Joe Biden Risks A Major Middle East War If He Makes The Wrong Choices,” The Huffington Post cites anonymous US officials who fear the careless and chaotic behavior of their commander-in-chief is going to embroil the US in a hot war between Israel and Lebanon. HuffPost’s Akbar Shahid Ahmed writes the following: “ ‘I’ve been trying to keep an avalanche from falling on Lebanon and so have a lot of people,’ one official told HuffPost, saying many national security personnel fear unchecked U.S. support for Israel will make it overly confident about expanding operations into Lebanon. ‘The problem is no one can rein in Biden, and if Biden has a policy, he’s the commander-in-chief ― we have to carry it out. That’s what it comes down to, very, very, very unfortunately.’ ” Listening to the way people on the inside have been talking about Biden’s bull-in-a-China-shop behavior regarding middle east policy lately, one can’t help being reminded of the way the liberal press used to talk about the erratic and irresponsible behavior of Donald Trump when he was in office. The mood and tone feels like when Trump was exchanging verbal hostilities with North Koreain the first year of his term, which comedian John Mulaney famously likened to the disorder and discomfort of having a horse loose in the hospital. We’re all just standing here praying that this lunatic doesn’t ignite yet another horrific war in the middle east while watching him unapologetically sponsor a genocide in Gaza, and we’re still a ways off from emerging safely from the world-threatening nuclear brinkmanship his administration dragged everyone into with Russia in Ukraine. And it’s hard not to notice that this all sure looks an awful lot like what liberals were terrified would happen when Trump got into office. The lead-up to Trump winning the 2016 election and taking office was rife with some of the most vitriolic and emotionally intense rhetoric in the history of American politics, featuring frequent fears that Trump would start a nuclear war, that minorities would be fleeing in terror from violent persecution, that he’d be another Hitler and launch another holocaust, that he’d facilitate ethnic persecution and racist attacks.In the end Trump turned out to be a fairly standard evil Republican president. He sanctioned Venezuelans into starvation, vetoed attempts to save Yemen from the US-backed atrocities of Saudi Arabia, assassinated Iranian general Qassem Soleimani, imprisoned Julian Assange, and, despite the incredibly virulent mass delusion that he was a secret agent of Moscow, spent his entire term ramping up cold war hostilities against Russia with extreme aggression.All of which were monstrous. But none of those crimes rise to the level ofsingle-handedly facilitating a genocide in Gaza or taking the world closer to nuclear war than at any time since the Cuban Missile Crisis with his peace-killing efforts in Ukraine. Biden has turned out to be everything we were warned Trump would be: a genocidal monster fueling racist violence and crimes against humanity while imperiling the world with insanely reckless foreign policy decisions.
US Flies F-16 Fighter Jets Over Bosnia in Threat to Serbs Who Want Secession - The US flew two F-16 fighter jets over Bosnia and Herzegovina on Mondayas a show of force meant as a threat to Bosnian Serb leader Milorad Dodnik, who wants independence for the Serb-majority area of the country he controls. Dodnik is the president of the Republika Srpska, a semi-autonomous Serb republic within the borders of Bosnia and Herzegovina that’s separate from the other part of the country that’s mainly populated by Bosniak Muslims and Croats, known as the Federation of Bosnia-Herzegovina. The boundaries were set by the 1995 Dayton Accords, which were negotiated following a US and NATO intervention against the Serbs in the ethnic conflict in the area. The US Embassy in Sarajevo said the F-16 fighter jets flew over Bosnia to show US support for the country’s “territorial integrity.” “This bilateral training is an example of advanced military-to-military cooperation that contributes to peace and security in the Western Balkans as well as demonstrates the United States’ commitment to ensuring the territorial integrity of BiH (Bosnia-Herzegovina) in the face of anti-Dayton and secessionist activity,” the statement said, according to The Associated Press. “The United States has underscored that the BiH (Bosnia-Herzegovina) Constitution provides no right of secession, and it will act if anyone tries to change this basic element,” the statement added. Dodnik recently told AP that he will continue to pursue Serb interests despite threats from the US. “I am not irrational, I know that America’s response will be to use force … but I have no reason to be frightened by that into sacrificing (Serb) national interests,” he said.
Gonzalo Lira Is Dead by Yves Smith --It looks to have been first reported by Tucker Carlson: Gonzalo Lira, Sr. says his son has died at 55 in a Ukrainian prison, where he was being held for the crime of criticizing the Zelensky and Biden governments. Gonzalo Lira was an American citizen, but the Biden administration clearly supported his imprisonment and torture. Several weeks ago we spoke to his father, who predicted his son would be killed. Quote: Ep. 47 Gonzalo Lira was an American citizen who’s been tortured in a Ukrainian prison since July, for the crime of criticizing Zelensky. Biden officials approve of this, because they’d like to apply the same standard here. The media agree. Here’s a statement from Gonzalo Lira’s…I am saddened and outraged at this news. It is a disgrace, particularly after Gonzalo reported having been tortured and extorted while in prison, that the State Department did nothing to assist him, when they clearly could have gotten him deported. But that was certain not to happen given his show on Victoria Nuland.Gonzalo wrote some posts for Naked Capitalism not long after the financial crisis that were very colorful and informative. We parted ways over his submitting a post that took strong views on budget orthodoxy. I don’t know how I found his commentary on the war in Ukraine, but I watched it regularly. Lira had produced documentaries and analyzed some videos presented as battlefront scenes that he demonstrated were staged. In particular, he called out James Vasquez as a fraud who produced bogus videos to extract money from people who wanted to support Ukraine:The New York Times reported that Vasquez was a con artist months later, without crediting Gonzalo. Business Insider re-reported the New York Times story and added new detail in The making of a fake war hero: An American who reinvented himself as a social-media soldier in Ukraine is accused of ‘stolen valor‘. Gonzalo had been detained once by the Ukraine authorities for about ten days, has all of his social media accounts taken from him, and was released with (after much pleading) one very old laptop but also his identity papers. He was told not to leave the country but allegedly did not get the message that being given his documents meant he was being given the opportunity to fly the coop. Instead he stayed and resumed broadcasting. I participated in a few of his Roundtables during this period, which I very much enjoyed. We last spoke for what was supposed to be 15 minutes and turned out to over 2 hours, in IIRC spring 2023, when I was bummmed and stressed out the state of the warld and getting my mother’s house emptied, sold, and moving overseas and he was depressed about being under something close to house arrest and not knowing what would happen when the war got to him in Kharkiv. But Gonzalo and was unable to restrain himself from giving pointed commentary about Urkraine, resulting in a second arrest and much harsher treatment. From an August 1 post, after his second arrest:Gonzalo Lira is alive, as the videos embedded below and a fresh 25-entry tweetstorm attest. However, he has a very ugly story to report. He was detained and repeatedly tortured by prisoners at the behest of guards, so as to create official deniability.He was allowed to go free by virtue of paying $70,000 in bribes (after having $9,000 of “emergency cash” stolen) plus $11,000 in bail to be set loose before an August 2 trial date, where he was told his conviction was a certainty, despite the prosecution effectively admitting in its own filings that Gonzalo’s only crime was running afoul of Ukraine’s extreme restrictions on free speech. The anticipated sentence was 5 to 8 years in a labor camp. Gonzalo was not given access to an attorney despite claims otherwise.And predictably, the State Department was no help, due not just to Gonzalo’s critical reporting on the US role in the conflict and outing some Western propaganda, but no doubt more specifically to his video on Russia-hater-in-chief Victoria Nuland, who was just promoted to number two at State. Representatives of the US Embassy did visit him three times, but offered, as Gonzalo put it, only bromides. But apparently there was enough noise made, particularly by the Chilean government, about Gonzalo not being allowed to post bail, so State apparently did eventually clear its throat about that. Gonzalo tried to make a run for the Hungarian border and posted a video before his attempted crossing, which failed. I am at a loss as to why he did that ahead of time, putting the officials on notice, as opposed to arranging for it to appear at a time certain, when he would either have been arrested or be in Hungary. Perhaps he had reason to think that setting up a delayed release could still be detected by the SBU, so he might as well go public. And he wanted to leave a record in case this was his only chance to give a message to his family. This is the last in a series of three videos he released then. It’s is a bit verbose but you can understand why:. I feel I should say more but am at a loss as to how best commemorate Gonzalo. He was irreverent, funny, often acidly insightful, a little too fond of wild speculation for the hell of being provocative. Gonzalo said more than once the measure of a life was the distance between the highs and the lows. Tragically, he was killed on a low. It seems pretty obvious he did not die of natural causes.
GOP senators holding back from Trump’s call to fire Austin - Key Republican senators are holding off on joining former President Trump’s call for Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin to be removed from office, though they are heaping criticism on the nation’s Defense chief for waiting days to tell the White House of his hospitalization. Senior members of Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell’s (Ky.) leadership team are calling Austin’s unexplained absence “a dereliction of duty” and “unacceptable” but aren’t yet willing to go as far as Trump in calling for his ouster. Even so, they are blasting Austin for keeping his absence from duty a secret and demanding a Senate hearing to get to the bottom of the matter. They say the Pentagon appeared to violate a statutory requirement to provide a notification of Austin’s absence. GOP senators are also slamming the Biden White House for not immediately noticing that Austin was missing from the job, calling President Biden’s handling of the situation “irresponsible.” Even though Republican senators aren’t willing to match Trump in calling for Austin to be booted from his job, they are rallying behind the former president’s full-throated criticism of the national security lapse. The brewing scandal is giving members of the GOP establishment in Washington a chance to begin mending fences with Trump, their party’s likely nominee for president, by echoing his assault of the Biden White House. Senate Republican Whip John Thune (S.D.), who has clashed with Trump over the political wisdom of continuously arguing about the results of the 2020 election, called the episode a “terrible dereliction of duty” Monday. “He’s going to have to answer for it,” he said, but stopped short of calling for Austin to lose his job.
Rosendale to file impeachment articles against Austin --Hard-line House Republican Matt Rosendale (Mont.) on Monday announced plans to introduce an impeachment resolution against Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin over his failure last week to notify the White House and Congress he had been hospitalized for several days, as well as the troubled withdrawal from Afghanistan in 2021 and the Chinese spy balloon that flew over parts of the country last year. Rosendale, who will be introducing the article of impeachment when the House meets Tuesday afternoon, said Austin’s decision not to disclose his stay at Walter Reed National Military Medical Center in Washington, D.C., “violated his oath of office” and “jeopardized the lives of the American people,” according to a statement from his office. In an interview with The Vince Coglianese Show earlier Monday, Rosendale declined to say who would be co-sponsoring his action as he had just returned to Washington, D.C. and his team is still “putting this together.” “I am introducing a resolution tomorrow for impeachment. This is really, really frightening. . . When the secretary of Defense is MIA, that just compounds everything else, every threat that is presented to the country, every conflict that is going on around the world right now. This is very problematic,” said Rosendale, who has said he is “heavily considering running” for the U.S. Senate seat currently held by Democrat Jon Tester. Austin and the Biden administration have faced increasing scrutiny after the Pentagon did not disclose Austin’s initial Dec. 22 hospital admission for an elective surgery, followed by his readmittance Jan. 1 when the procedure led to health issues. Biden was left in the dark until Thursday, as were other top officials, while Congress was not notified until late Friday afternoon. Rosendale is not the only House Republican to have called for Austin’s ouster. Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-N.Y.), chair of the House Republican Conference, earlier said Austin should immediately resign as his absence without notification erodes trust in the chain of command at a time of multiple global conflicts the U.S. has a hand in. Outside Congress, former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley on Monday night called for President Biden to be fired over the Pentagon’s lack of disclosure.Former President Trump, meanwhile, in a post on his Truth Social platform called for Austin to be fired. The Biden administration has stood firm, however, on keeping Austin in place, with national security spokesperson John Kirby telling reporters Monday that there are no plans for the White House to fire the Pentagon chief.
Pentagon pushes back on Taylor Swift conspiracy theory: ‘We are going to shake it off’ --The Department of Defense clapped back at Fox News host Jesse Watters on Wednesday after he said Taylor Swift could be a “psyop” for the Pentagon. “I wonder who got to her from the White House or wherever,” Watters said on his show Tuesday night. “Who makes that initial handshake.” Waters was referencing a partnership between Swift and Vote.org intended to encourage young people to register to vote. The remark spawned conspiracy theories suggesting Swift could be a government asset or part of a broader information campaign.Pentagon spokesperson Sabrina Singh shut down the speculation Wednesday in a statement to Politico. . “As for this conspiracy theory, we are going to shake it off,” she said, a tongue-in-cheek reference to one of the pop star’s hits. “But that does highlight that we still need Congress to approve our supplemental budget request as Swift-ly as possible so we can be out of the woods with potential fiscal concerns,” she continued, adding more references to Swift hits. Vote.org chief Andrea Hailey also pushed back on the implications Wednesday. “Not a psy-op or a Pentagon asset,” she wrote on X, the platform formerly known as Twitter. “Just the biggest nonpartisan platform in America helping young people register & cast their vote.” Swift has exploded in popularity in recent years, particularly among young people, and has been outspoken on political issues in the past.
US oil lobby launches eight-figure ad blitz amid record fossil fuel extraction - The American oil lobby has launched an eight-figure media campaign this week promoting the idea that fossil fuels are “vital” to global energy security, alarming climate experts.“US natural gas and oil play a key role in supplying the world with cleaner, more reliable energy,” the new initiative’s website says.Big oil ‘fully owned the villain role’ in 2023, the hottest year ever recorded The campaign comes amid record fossil fuel extraction in the US, and as the industry is attempting to capitalize on the war in Gaza to escalate production even further, climate advocates say.Launched Tuesday by the nation’s top fossil fuel interest group, the Lights on Energy campaign will work to “dismantle policy threats” to the sector, the American Petroleum Institute (API) CEO, Mike Sommers, told CNN in an interview this week.The ad blitz – which uses images of farm vehicles, footballers under floodlights and concert goers holding phones lit up – comes after US oil production reached a record high in 2023, which was also the hottest year ever recorded.“We’re already moving in the wrong direction on fossil fuels,” said Timmons Roberts, professor of environment and sociology at Brown University. “They want to push us further.”Roberts said the new ad blitz is rife with the kinds of “discourses of climate delay” that the fossil fuel industry commonly uses to thwart climate action, as documented in a 2020 study he co-authored on the topic. A video ad posted on Tuesday, for instance, says “demand for energy is growing and so is the need for American oil and natural gas”, positioning the sector as essential to continued human flourishing – a form of discourse Roberts and his co-authors call an “appeal to wellbeing”.In his CNN interview, Sommers said clean energy can currently only play a limited role. “Renewable sources have a role to play, but oil and natural gas will be needed for decades,” he said.In doing so, he employed a second discursive strategy known as “change is impossible”, which denies the ability for large-scale transformation, Roberts said, adding that the statement may be a “self fulfilling prophecy”, as fossil fuel companies still invest minimally in carbon-free energy.The claim also ignores copious evidence that the world can begin to phase out fossil fuels, and must do so to avert the worst consequences of the climate crisis, said Caleb Heeringa, campaign director of Gas Leaks, a nonprofit attempting to counter pro-gas messaging.“We aren’t saying we can turn off the spigot tomorrow,” he said. “But [the industry] is trying to expand the fossil fuel system, expand pipelines, expand fracking, and make more of our economy and our existence dependent on fossil fuels, even though clean energy is advancing at a rapid rate.”The campaign also states that increased gas usage is a “key reason” that US carbon emissions have fallen, employing a tactic Roberts calls “fossil fuel solutionism” by framing polluting energy as a climate solution.The ad blitz states that gas use led to a drop in CO2 emissions, but fails to mention the attendant rise in emissions of methane, a greenhouse gas 80 times more planet-heating than carbon dioxide in the short term, Heeringa said. It also refers to the “reliability” of gas-powered energy, “despite significant gas system failures” during weather emergencies such as 2022’s winter storm Elliott and 2021’s winter storm Uri.The campaign comes amid industry claims that Israel’s war in Gaza will threaten energy security by inhibiting the flow of oil out of the region.“This should be a real concern, I think, to every American,” Sommers told CNN.It seems like an attempt to take advantage of a crisis to maximize profit, said Patrick Galey, a senior fossil fuels investigator at Global Witness. In the wake of the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022, the industry similarly called to expand domestic extraction, as Global Witness tracked. “Evidence suggests the fossil fuel lobby are not letting the latest crisis – this time in the Red Sea due to Israel’s carpet bombing of Gaza – go to waste, either,” said Galey. “Until countries rapidly and justly phase out fossil fuels, consumers will continue to be prey to the whims of despotic petrostates and feeding frenzies from the oil and gas lobbies whenever the next crisis hits.”
Oil lobbyist helps craft testimony for small producers - Two small oil and gas operators testifying before a House subcommittee against EPA’s new methane fee Wednesday had more in common than their vocations: Their prepared remarks were both at least partially co-authored by the same oil lobbyist.While it’s not uncommon for industry representatives to assist with congressional testimony, collaboration between each of the witnesses and the same industry heavyweight could complicate an argument Republicans reiterated throughout the hearing that these witnesses should not be lumped in with the industry monolith so frequently vilified by Democrats.“These companies are not ‘Big Oil,’” declared Rep. Bill Johnson (R-Ohio), the chair of the House Energy and Commerce Subcommittee on Environment, Manufacturing and Critical Minerals. “On average they employ just 12 people, and this suite of methane regulations will crush these producers.” Johnson presided over a hearing to probe alleged “EPA overreach” in its new rule that would compel producers to upgrade equipment and proactively search for existing methane leaks — mandates critics contend are unworkable.The first portion of the hearing featured Joe Goffman, the acting head of the EPA air office who has been awaiting Senate confirmation since March 2022 to serve in the role in an official capacity.Later, lawmakers heard from a trio of small oil and gas operators, including Michael Oestmann of Tall City Exploration and Patrick Montalban of Montalban Oil and Gas Operations, who bemoaned the ways in which the new regulations would do more harm than good.Portions of their prepared remarks, which were submitted to the Energy and Commerce Committee and posted online earlier this week, were nearly identical.“While oil demand is still strong and will be for decades … it seems clear that a direct result of the implementation of these rules will be to ship jobs, revenue, and a key source of supply to many of our adversaries who, ironically, cause much more environmental harm by their production process than U.S. producers,” Oestmann wrote in one part of his testimony.Montalban used similar rhetorical flourishes: “By shutting down the small producers while oil demand is high, and will be for decades, will result in shipping jobs, revenue, and a key source of supply to many of our adversaries –who ironically, cause much more environmental harm by their production process than US producers.”Elsewhere, Oustmann wrote, “I understand the need for addressing environmental protection while achieving economic success in oil and gas production, but there is a right way and a wrong way to approach the issue.”Montalban said, “I would welcome the opportunity to work with this committee and anyone else who is interested in working to find a constructive way forward to balance environmental protection with economic success. … But there is a right way … and there is the wrong way: this administration’s approach.” The metadata for the PDF files of the testimony posted to the Energy and Commerce Committee website revealed Christopher Kearney, an oil and gas lobbyist with the Ferguson Group, was the “author” of both.Energy and Commerce Committee Democrats quickly seized on the connection.“Republicans have been parroting fossil fuel industry talking points for years, and the fact an oil and gas lobbyist wrote near-identical testimonies for two of their witnesses today is just the latest example of how embedded they are with their polluter friends,” a spokesperson for panel Democrats said in a statement to E&E News.“It’s no wonder so many Americans think Republicans are more interested in protecting corporate interests than theirs,” the statement said.
Chip Roy: Constituents say ‘shut down border or shut down government’ -- Rep. Chip Roy (R-Texas) said Monday that his constituents want lawmakers to shut down the government if there is no deal on the border. “I sure don’t think we ought to be giving more money to Ukraine without forcing the change in the border. We need to. It’s the only tool we have, Neil,” he said on Fox News’s “Your World With Neil Cavuto.” “I mean, I don’t want to — I’m not trying to rattle about shutdown for the sake of it. But the people I represent they’re like, good Lord shut down the border or shut down the government until you wake up President Biden and Mayorkas to do their job,” he continued. Roy suggested last week that conservative lawmakers need to withhold funding to force the Biden administration to agree to the GOP’s border demands. Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) attempted to walk back concerns of a shutdown over the weekend, saying that Roy was not threatening to shut down the government in his remarks. Roy also said Monday Texas has had to take matters into its own hands regarding the border to “defend” itself. “We’ve had to spend out of our own money to do what the federal government is supposed to do,” he said. “And it’s long past due for us to do something about it. It’s why I don’t think we should be funding the government without getting change.” Some conservative lawmakers have already threatened to shut down the government over the border. Roy circulated a “Dear Colleague” letter last week urging lawmakers to hold up government funding legislation until Democrats and the White House agree to border security and asylum reforms included in H.R. 2, the Secure the Border Act, which was passed in May by the House. “We must make funding for federal government operations contingent on the president signing H.R. 2, or its functional equivalent, into law and stopping the flow across our border (with demonstrable near-zero results),” he wrote.
End The Cuba Embargo? Biden Begs Mexico To Stop Migrant Flows, But There's A Price -- As Joe Biden continues to poll in the toilet - in no small part to the border crisis he created, his administration has resorted to begging Mexico to stem the tsunami of illegal immigrants entering the United States. In late December, DHS Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas, who has repeatedly maintained that the 'border is secure,' traveled to Mexico with Secretary of State Antony Blinken to beg for assistance in what officials called "preliminary" discussions with Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO), NBC News reports.On Friday, AMLO laid out his conditions:
- US approval for a plan to deploy $20 billion to Latin American and Caribbean countries
- Suspend the US blockade of Cuba
- Remove all sanctions against Venezuela
- Grant at least 10 million Hispanics living in the US the right to remain and work legally
These are tall demands, but the southern border could also tank Biden's chances of reelection - as the border saw a record 300,000 migrants processed by CBP in December alone. One Biden official told NBC News that AMLO "has a very ambitious agenda," and that for some of his requests, the US Congress would need to act. The two countries are expected to continue talks in Washington later this month. Mexico brings significant leverage to the negotiations, the U.S. and Mexican officials said. López Obrador’s administration would prefer that President Joe Biden win re-election in November, given Donald Trump’s rhetoric and actions during his time in office. But Biden is quickly running out of options to fix a problem that is driving down his poll numbers without increased support from Mexico, three U.S. officials told NBC News.One Mexican official told NBC News that Mexico is willing to help with enforcement - which US negotiators want to include the capture and deportation of Guatemalans apprehended within the country. Meanwhile on Capitol Hill, lawmakers continue to negotiate over border security measures after several asylum policies introduced by Biden's team in May failed to deter migration.
Biden asks Supreme Court to give State Department sweeping power to separate immigrant families, provoking anger across Latin America On Friday, the US Supreme Court will decide whether to hear a case that has the potential to strip millions of undocumented immigrants and their US citizen family members of constitutional rights in the “consular process,” a main mechanism through which undocumented people can legally acquire green cards. News of the case has spread on social media across the US and Latin America, provoking anger and concern among immigrants and their families across the hemisphere. The case, State Department v. Sandra Muñoz, involves a husband and wife who had lived together in Los Angeles, California for years. The couple was separated in 2015 as a result of an arbitrary decision by a consular official at the US Embassy in El Salvador, denying Luis Asencio, Sandra Muñoz’s husband, the ability to re-enter the country without explaining why. Though the Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals ruled this violated the Constitution, the Biden administration is appealing the decision to the right-wing Supreme Court, arguing that the Constitution does not apply in the consular process, not even to US citizens who are permanently separated from their spouses. US citizen and prominent Los Angeles workers’ rights attorney Sandra Muñoz met her husband at a mutual friend’s wedding in 2008. Asencio had come to the US in 2005 without immigration papers, but has no criminal record in any country. The couple fell in love and were married in 2010. In 2013, they initiated the consular process, which allows undocumented people with immediate US citizen relatives to erase the consequences of their unlawful entry if they meet certain requirements and are deemed “admissible” at an interview at a US consulate in their country of origin. Each year, hundreds of thousands of spouses of citizens undergo this process, which requires proving the marriage is “bona fide” and establishing that the citizen-spouse will suffer “extreme hardship” if separated. The process is costly and intrusive, and requires both spouses give federal agents the ability to enter their bedrooms without warning and interview their neighbors to determine if the marriage is legitimate. Immigration officials determined Muñoz and Asencio met these requirements, and approved Asencio’s petition for a provisional waiver of his unlawful status. As the last step toward acquiring a green card, the couple traveled to El Salvador in the spring of 2015 for an interview at the US consulate. They assumed the trip would be a brief one, but the couple has been separated ever since. A consular officer denied Asencio admission to the US claiming he might “incidentally” engage in “any other unlawful activity,” without providing any further reason.
Local bans on homeless people sleeping in public earn Supreme Court review - The Supreme Court said Friday it would consider whether local laws prohibiting homeless people from sleeping on public property is cruel and unusual punishment barred by the Constitution. The Oregon city of Grants Pass asked the high court to review a lower court’s decision to block it from enforcing its public camping ordinance, writing that the decision “cemented a conflict” with California courts that have upheld similar ordinances. The city cited a slew of potential consequences for allowing the 9th Circuit Court of Appeals decision to stand, including crime, fires, environmental harm, “the reemergence of medieval diseases,” drug overdoses and deaths. “(The 9th Circuit Court of Appeals’) decisions are legally wrong and have tied the hands of local governments as they work to address the urgent homelessness crisis,” Theane Evangelis, a lawyer for Grants Pass, said in a statement. “The tragedy is that these decisions are actually harming the very people they purport to protect,” she continued. “We look forward to presenting our arguments to the Supreme Court this spring.” Grant Pass’s request for the Supreme Court to take up the case was backed by officials in San Francisco and Phoenix, California Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) and 20 Republican state attorneys general. The Eighth Amendment is at the heart of the case. It prevents “cruel and unusual punishments” from being imposed, in addition to excessive fines or bail. “For years, political leaders have chosen to tolerate encampments as an alternative to meaningfully addressing the western region’s severe housing shortage,” attorneys representing the city’s homeless population wrote to the justices, urging them to let stand the lower court’s ruling favoring them. “As the homelessness crisis has escalated, these amici have faced intense public backlash for their failed policies, and it is easier to blame the courts than to take responsibility for finding a solution,” they added. The Supreme Court previously declined to consider a similar appeal of the lower court’s 2019 ruling, which found that sleeping outdoors on public property — when there is no option to sleep indoors — can’t be criminalized “on the false premise they had a choice in the matter.” “The fact is the Ninth Circuit’s narrow ruling is consistent with decades of Supreme Court precedent. The U.S. Constitution does not allow cities to punish people for having an involuntary status, including the status of being involuntarily homeless. We look forward to presenting our case to the Court,” Ed Johnson, director of litigation at the Oregon Law Center and lead counsel for the respondents, said in a statement. Friday’s announcement came one day after the 9th Circuit upheld a lower decision prohibiting San Francisco from removing homeless people from the streets without first offering them shelter.
Biden administration rescinds much of Trump ‘conscience’ rule for health workers -The Biden administration will largely undo a Trump-era rule that boosted the rights of medical workers to refuse to perform abortions or other services that conflicted with their religious or moral beliefs. The final rule released Tuesday partially rescinds the Trump administration’s 2019 policy that would have stripped federal funding from health facilities that required workers to provide any service they objected to, such as abortions, contraception, gender-affirming care and sterilization. The health care conscience protection statutes represent Congress’s attempt to strike a balance between maintaining access to health care and honoring religious beliefs and moral convictions, the Department of Health and Human Services said in the rule. “Some doctors, nurses, and hospitals, for example, object for religious or moral reasons to providing or referring for abortions or assisted suicide, among other procedures. Respecting such objections honors liberty and human dignity,” the department said. But at the same time, Health and Human Services said “patients also have rights and health needs, sometimes urgent ones. The Department will continue to respect the balance Congress struck, work to ensure individuals understand their conscience rights, and enforce the law.” There are federal laws in place that allow health care providers to refuse care in certain circumstances based on their religious beliefs. The Trump administration’s rule would have dramatically expanded how those laws were interpreted and implemented.
Fauci sits through first seven hours of questioning with COVID select subcommittee Former chief White House medical adviser Anthony Fauci sat for a seven-hour closed-door meeting Monday, facing questions regarding the COVID-19 pandemic and offering his expertise on preparing for potential outbreaks in the future. The former government official last year agreed to two days of trascribed interviews back-to-back with the House Select Subcommittee on the Coronavirus Pandemic. The first meeting Monday ran about an hour long. Fauci took several breaks during the meeting and did not take any questions from reporters. According to lawmakers inside the room, the tone of the meeting was “respectful” and “cooperative.” “It’s been very cooperative in there. We’ve asked a lot of questions. Dr. Fauci responds in the best way he can. I will say that there may be over 100 or so far ‘I don’t recall’ or ‘I don’t remember’ answers,” Rep. Brad Wenstrup (R-Ohio), chair of the committee, told reporters. “That just means that maybe we have to find the people that do recall.” Rep. Debbie Dingell (D-Mich.) said the meeting had been “a day of education.” “There’s been a lot of other information exchanged today. So, we were talking what’s the role of the federal government versus the role of state and local government. Even in one example, the most recent was just in testing and … making sure that tests are available to everybody,” Dingell said. Fauci was joined by two of his own attorneys and two government attorneys during the interview. Heading into the meeting, Wenstrup’s office said the chair planned to ask questions on the origins of COVID-19, alleged federal records violations, conflicts of interest and guidance that seemed to conflict with itself at times during the pandemic. One particular issue that stood out to Wenstrup was Fauci’s definition of gain-of-function research. Republicans have repeatedly questioned if U.S.-funded gain-of-function research in Wuhan, China, potentially resulted in a lab-leak that led to the COVID-19 pandemic, as well how much Fauci knew and was involved in the research. Fauci said during the Monday meeting he was open-minded on where the virus could have originated from, according to those in the room. “One thing that’s been most interesting is a new definition that we’ve heard and Dr. Fauci refers to this as his operational definition of gain-of-function,” Wenstrup said. “And I don’t know that every scientist that deals with this type of viral research, understands his definition of operational … definition of gain-of-function.” Democrats who attended the meeting, however, said Fauci was able to “clarify” what his definition of gain-of-function was. “A lot of our GOP colleagues have failed to recognize the operative, regulatory definition [of] gain-of-function that was instituted in 2017 was operative at the time the COVID pandemic came along. And the concern over EcoHealth Alliance so that’s — Dr. Fauci was able to clarify that today,” Rep. Kathy Castor (D-Fla.) said. Gain-of-function research, as defined by the Department of Health and Human Services, is: “Research that improves the ability of a pathogen to cause disease, help define the fundamental nature of human-pathogen interactions, thereby enabling assessment of the pandemic potential of emerging infectious agents, informing public health and preparedness efforts, and furthering medical countermeasure development.” Grant funding awarded by the National Institutes of Health went toward coronavirus research at the Wuhan Institute of Virology (WIV). EcoHealth Alliance, the nongovernmental organization that sub-awarded the funds to the WIV, has repeatedly stated that the money did not go toward gain-of-function research. Federal funds to the WIV were halted in 2020.
DeSantis promises to ‘bring a reckoning’ to Fauci -- Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis on Wednesday promised to “bring a reckoning” to former White House chief medical adviser Anthony Fauci if DeSantis is elected to the White House. “We cannot allow Anthony Fauci to escape accountability,” DeSantis wrote in a post on X, the platform formerly known as Twitter. “I am the only candidate who will bring a reckoning for what tyrants like Fauci did to our country during COVID.”Fauci participated in a two-day interview with lawmakers on Monday and Tuesday this week. In the wake of the first interview, the Republican-run House Select Subcommittee on the Coronavirus Pandemic posted takeaways on X.The subcommittee said Fauci “repeatedly played semantics with the definition of gain-of-function in an attempt to avoid conceding that NIH funded this dangerous research” and “signed off on every foreign and domestic NIAID grant without reviewing the proposals.”Democrats blasted the GOP for distorting Fauci’s closed-door testimony,“The Republicans have totally distorted Dr. Fauci’s testimony, ongoing testimony, which will be available in a transcript,” Rep. Kathy Castor (D-Fla.) told reporters, in reference to the X posts. “And I hope that that won’t take too long, because I think that will be very illuminating to you and to the public.” DeSantis is a noted critic of Fauci, once boasting about his handling of the COVID-19 pandemic by saying he prevented the Sunshine State from becoming a “Faucian dystopia.”“I think we were one of the first states to see the experts were getting it wrong, and we resolved to charge a different course,” DeSantis said in March. “We are not going to let this state descend into a Faucian dystopia, not on our watch.”
McConnell stands in way of Brown, Vance victory on Rail Safety Act Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) has promised he will schedule a vote on a long-delayed rail safety bill sponsored by Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio), who faces a tough re-election in a critical Senate battleground. But the legislation is opposed by Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.), who may block it outright or drag out its time on the Senate floor. Brown is one of the Senate’s most vulnerable incumbents and if he can help pass a major bill to respond to the rail disaster that struck East Palestine, Ohio, in February of last year, it could help him win in November — and help Democrats keep the Senate. Brown, who is running for his fourth Senate term, spoke with Schumer twice earlier this year about getting a vote on the bill and said the Democratic leader promised he would schedule it soon. “Schumer absolutely wants to help and we’re working it. I talked to Schumer twice about it in the last 72 hours,” the Ohio Democrat told The Hill. The legislation also has the backing of conservative Sen. J.D. Vance (R-Ohio), who has clashed with McConnell over funding for Ukraine. They teamed up last year on the legislation after a 150-car freight train carrying toxic chemicals derailed in eastern Ohio nearly a year ago, creating an environmental disaster. Sources in both parties say, however, it won’t get the 9 Republican votes needed to advance on the floor, even though Vance, the lead GOP sponsor, insists there will be enough bipartisan support to get it done. “I think it’s dead,” said one GOP senator familiar with the legislation. “It can’t get 10 Republicans. McConnell opposes it. “What I’ve been told is that Schumer wants to move it because he wants to help Sherrod — he doesn’t want to see it fail — but Republicans can’t deliver the votes. McConnell’s against it. All of our leadership’s against it,” the source added. The legislation also faces stiff opposition from the freight rail industry, a wealthy interest group that has given generously to Republicans and Democrats, alike. The legislation would enhance safety procedures for trains carrying hazardous materials, requiring emergency response plans and stricter regulations to prevent wheel bearing failures. The failure of a sensor to alert the crew to an overheating wheel bearing was blamed for the disaster. The legislation would require two-person crews for freight trains and would substantially increase fines for safety violations. It would require the Federal Railroad Administration to oversee infrastructure improvements to railside defect detectors and prohibit caps on inspection times to give inspectors for time to review
Side hustles won’t save the US Postal Service -The holiday season came and went, and it appears the U.S. Postal Service did a good job. Yes, there were some reports of letter carriers getting swamped with packages here and there. And, yes, there were citizen complaints about delivery delays and mail theft. But on the whole, the USPS delivered in late 2023. There was no systemic crack-up as there was in December of 2020, when bad weather, sick mail workers and other factors slowedholiday cards and gifts for days and even weeks. The Post Office’s success this year was no accident. Postmaster General Louis DeJoy had the agency preparing way in advance. It ramped up its capacity by hiring thousands of seasonal employees and expanding its capacity to sort packages and shunt them to their destinations. For sure, the Post Office will benefit from postage on those billions of letters and parcels. Unfortunately, all those dollars will not change the fact that the USPS is going broke. A few months ago, the agency reported it had lost $6.5 billion over the past year. More distressing is the agency has $135 billion in unfunded employee health care and pension benefits and is warning it could lose another $70 billion by 2030. Postmaster DeJoy has warned the agency could run out of cash in 5 years, at which point it would either cease operations or require a massive taxpayer bailout. Presently, the agency self-funds its operations through the sale of postage. There is no mystery as to the causes of the agency’s fiscal distress: flagging revenues. The USPS’s revenues were $78.2 billion in 2023 and $74.9 billion in 2008, 15 years ago. That sounds like an increase, but it is not. Adjusted for inflation, last year’s $78.2 billion is equivalent to $54.1 billion in 2008 dollars. The USPS was built to deliver paper and the demand for that service has plunged 45 percent since 2008, from 213.1 billion pieces to 116.1 billion.I have written about the USPS’s revenue problem for many years, and frequently the first response I hear from readers and elected officials is, “We can save the Post Office by letting it get into profitable side businesses. Some foreign posts sell banking and other services. We should do that.” Perhaps the most ambitious proponent is Christopher Shaw, author of the book, “First Class: The U.S. Postal Service, Democracy, and the Corporate Threat.” He would have the Post Office offer various internet services and operate an eBay-type platform, among other businesses. Certainly, I understand the appeal to trying to save the Postal Service by morphing it into the Sorta Postal But Also Non-postal Service. But it has a few problems. First, it is contrary to the law, which limits the agency to providing postal services and those very closely related, like selling greeting cards. Congress enacted this rule because it thought it was unfair to have a government agency compete with the private sector, and because a Government Accountability Office study showed the USPS’s forays into side businesses tended to fail. But even if one waved those matters away, there is another issue: Getting the USPS into side businesses probably would fail. The USPS was built over many decades to deliver paper. Its entire infrastructure, from the letter carrier’s bag to blue mail collection boxes to its delivery vehicles to its sorting machines, was designed for letters, catalogs and the like. This is why the agency is struggling and spending billions to shift operations to the adjacent business of package delivery. Indeed, when the USPS’s inspector general examined the prospects for having the agency sell banking services it suggested that the Post Office outsource some of the work to a private corporation. Why? Because the USPS lacks the infrastructure and internal banking expertise.
Rep. Lauren Boebert’s ex-husband arrested on several charges — According to a document obtained by Nexstar’s KDVR, Rep. Lauren Boebert’s ex-husband was arrested earlier this week on the suspicion of several misdemeanor charges in two separate events.Court records show that Jayson Boebert, 43, was arrested on Tuesday by the Garfield County Sheriff’s Office. He was released the same day, according to jail records. According to the arrest warrant obtained by KDVR, Jayson Boebert was taken into custody on charges of prohibited use of a firearm, harassment, and assault in the third degree — all misdemeanors. The charges stem from an altercation that took place at Jayson’s home on Jan. 9 involving a family member who was not Lauren.A second arrest warrant was issued for Boebert after law enforcement were called to the Miner’s Claim Restaurant in Silt, Colorado, on Saturday over an alleged incident between him and Lauren.According to that Garfield County arrest warrant, issued Tuesday and obtained by KDVR, Jayson was wanted on suspicion of disorderly conduct with an offensive gesture and trespassing, both petty offenses, as well as a misdemeanor count of obstructing a peace officer.While it is unclear what happened during the alleged altercation, Lauren released a statement saying in part, “I didn’t punch Jayson in the face and no one was arrested.”
Hunter Biden Contempt Resolutions Introduced In House - House Republicans on Monday introduced contempt resolutions against Hunter Biden, recommending that he be held in Contempt of Congress for failing to comply with subpoenas and appear for testimony in front of the House Oversight and Judiciary Committees on Dec. 13. Hunter, who was handsomely compensated for doing nothing on the board of Ukrainian energy giant Burisma (right before his father strong armed the Ukrainians into firing their chief prosecutor - who was investigating Burisma), skipped out on his closed-door deposition, and instead said he would only appear for public testimony - where questions would be far more limited.According to the committees, "Biden has violated federal law, and must be held in contempt of Congres."The committees said they want to get information from Hunter Biden to determine whether his father, President Joe Biden, was involved in any bribery schemes, abused his positions of political power as president or vice president, or knowingly participated in any scheme to enrich himself or his family, including through contact with foreign entities. -Just the NewsAs Constitutional law professor Jonathan Turley noted in December; Few people expected Hunter to testify in the deposition. The evidence against him is overwhelming, as shown in his second federal indictment on tax charges. He and his uncles were allegedly engaged in one of the largest influence-peddling operations in history involving millions of dollars from various foreign sources. Hunter simply could have done what prior witnesses have done: Go in and take the Fifth. That is what attorney and former IRS official Lois Lerner did — twice — when House Republicans wanted to ask her about the Obama administration targeting conservative groups. It was a no-brainer that someone appears to have radically over-thought on the Hunter Biden legal team. Hunter can now be held in contempt of Congress. That will force the hand of Attorney General Merrick Garland, who aggressively pursued Trump figures for contempt, including former Trump adviser Steve Bannon. Despite some of us writing to the contrary, Bannon claimed his lawyers told him he did not have to appear before a House committee. He was swiftly charged and convicted by Garland’s prosecutors. In this instance, the contempt case would go to the U.S. Attorney in D.C., Matthew Graves, who previously declined to assist in bringing tax charges against the president’s son. Yet by pulling a Bannon, Hunter now faces the expectation in many circles that he will get the full Bannon treatment from Garland.
Hunter Biden makes surprise appearance at contempt of Congress hearing -- Hunter Biden made a surprise appearance at a markup of the House Oversight and Accountability Committee on Wednesday before the panel was set to approve a resolution to hold the president’s son in contempt of Congress for defying a subpoena last month. Fireworks went off at the start of the markup when lawmakers recognized that Biden was in the hearing room. Rep. Nancy Mace (R-S.C.) asked “who bribed Hunter Biden to be here,” criticizing the surprise appearance. “You are the epitome of white privilege. Coming in to the Oversight Committee, spitting in our face, ignoring a congressional subpoena to be deposed. What are you afraid of? You have no balls to come up here,” she said. “I think that Hunter Biden should be arrested right here, right now, and go straight to jail,” she added. Rep. Jared Moskowitz (D-Fla.) then suggested the panel hold a vote on hearing from Biden “right now,” asking for a show of hands from the room. Only Democrats raised their hands. Biden walked into the hearing with his attorney, Abbe Lowell, and Kevin Morris, an associate and entertainment lawyer who is scheduled to appear before the House Judiciary Committee for a deposition next week. Biden and Lowell exited the hearing room minutes later, just as Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) was beginning to speak — “What a coward,” Greene said — with Lowell then delivering a statement to reporters criticizing GOP lawmakers and defending his client. “Hunter Biden was and is a private citizen. Despite this, Republicans have sought to use him as a surrogate to attack his father,” Lowell said. The House Oversight and Judiciary panels are moving to hold Hunter Biden in contempt of Congress after he failed to appear for a closed-door deposition last month as part of their impeachment inquiry into his father, President Biden.
House GOP advances Hunter Biden contempt resolution after fiery hearing --Two House panels separately voted to advance a contempt of Congress resolution against Hunter Biden on Wednesday, teeing up a full House vote and the potential for criminal charges for the president’s son.The votes by the Oversight and Judiciary committees came hours after Biden made a surprise appearance in the Oversight markup, drawing a string of criticism from GOP lawmakers and sparking fiery exchanges between members.“Hunter Biden’s willful refusal to comply with the Committees’ subpoenas is a criminal act. It constitutes contempt of Congress and warrants referral to the appropriate United States Attorney’s Office for prosecution as prescribed by law,” House Oversight Chair James Comer (R-Ky.) said at the start of the hearing.“We will not provide Hunter Biden with special treatment because of his last name.”Hunter Biden defied the subpoenas to appear for a closed-door deposition with the committees last month as part of the House GOP’s impeachment inquiry into his father, President Biden. He instead made an appearance on the Senate lawn on the morning of the deposition, noting an offer from Comer to “drop everything” if he wanted to appear before the committee, offering only to testify in a public setting and accusing the GOP of misrepresenting other witnesses’ closed-door testimony.Hunter Biden on Wednesday again scuttled the committee’s plans, with his brief appearance in the Oversight hearing room causing Comer to interrupt ranking member Jamie Raskin (D-Md.) to chastise photographers snapping photos of the president’s son.Comer said Republicans had “no idea” that Hunter Biden was going to show up during the markup, but “the Secret Service was sniffing around, so we assumed something was going to happen.”“This was a P.R. stunt,” Comer said.
Ocasio-Cortez, Crockett call out Mace for Hunter Biden ‘white privilege’ dig -- Reps. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) and Jasmine Crockett (D-Texas) called out Rep. Nancy Mace (R-S.C.) after she took a dig at Hunter Biden’s “white privilege” during a House Oversight and Accountability Committee hearing Wednesday.Mace made the comment after the president’s son made a surprise appearance in the hearing room as the committee marked up a resolution to hold him in contempt of Congress for defying a subpoena to testify behind closed doors as part of the House GOP’s impeachment inquiry into his father.“My first question is who bribed Hunter Biden to be here today? That’s my first question. Second question, you are the epitome of white privilege. Coming into the Oversight Committee, spitting in our face, ignoring a Congressional subpoena to be deposed. What are you afraid of? You have no balls to come up here,” Mace said.Later in the hearing, Crockett, a member of the Congressional Black Caucus, criticized Mace for saying Biden showing up represented “white privilege.”“I just want to run it back through to the very beginning, because this is something that I just can’t get over. I just can get over the gentlelady from South Carolina talking about white privilege,” Crockett said. “It was a spit in the face, at least of mine as a Black woman, for you to talk about what white privilege looks like, especially from that side of the aisle.”“Ya’ll don’t know what white privilege looks like,” she said.Mace defended herself, saying she was previously a ranking member of the Civil Rights and Civil Liberties Subcommittee and takes “great pride as a white female Republican to address the inadequacies in our country.”Mace said she comes from a district where “rich and poor is literally Black and white, Black versus white on most days.”Ocasio-Cortez noted that though Mace helped lead the Civil Rights and Civil Liberties Subcommittee, she also helped disband it when Republicans took majority in the House.
Hunter Biden’s daughter hits back at Greene for ‘lying’ at House hearing - Hunter Biden’s daughter Naomi hit back at Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) Wednesday, saying the lawmaker was “lying” at a House hearing her father attended Wednesday. Naomi Biden took aim at Greene over remarks the Georgia congresswoman made saying that Hunter Biden had “fled the scene” of a committee hearing room once Greene started speaking “the truth” about Biden.“Actually, it appears everyone fled the scene when she started lying,” Naomi Biden wrote on X, the platform previously known as Twitter.Hunter Biden made a surprise appearance at a House Oversight and Accountability Committee markup Wednesday, before the committee advanced a resolution to hold him in contempt of Congress for what they claimed was his defiance of a December subpoena.Fireworks immediately exploded with Hunter Biden’s entry. He sat in the room for a short period as Republicans and Democrats on the panel battled, before abruptly leaving with his entoutage.Greene was speaking as Biden left the hearing room.“WOW – Hunter Biden fled the scene when I started exposing the truth behind the Biden Crime Family,” Greene posted on X. “Too bad his daddy can’t save him this time. We have mountains of evidence of Biden family corruption and foreign influence peddling and there will be accountability for these crimes.”In an interview that aired Thursday on MSNBC’s “Morning Joe,” first lady Jill Biden was asked how she is coping with Republicans’ accusations against her family, notably Hunter.“I think what they are doing to Hunter is cruel, and I’m really proud of how Hunter has rebuilt his life after addiction,” the first lady said. “I love my son, and it’s hurt my grandchildren.”
Hunter Biden reverses course, would sit for closed-door deposition with new subpoena -Hunter Biden reversed course Friday and said he would agree to give closed-door testimony to Congress if the House Oversight and Judiciary committees issue new subpoenas. Hunter Biden’s lawyer, Abbe Lowell, made the offer in a letter Friday to Oversight and Accountability Committee Chair James Comer (R-Ky.) and Judiciary Committee Chair Jim Jordan (R-Ohio), the two Republicans who have led the investigations into the Biden family and an impeachment inquiry into President Biden. “You have not explained why you are not interested in transparency and having the American people witness the full and complete testimony of Mr. Biden at a public hearing. If you issue a new proper subpoena, now that there is a duly authorized impeachment inquiry, Mr. Biden will comply for a hearing or deposition. We will accept such a subpoena on Mr. Biden’s behalf,” Lowell wrote. President Biden’s son had previously offered only to testify in a public setting, and he defied a subpoena to appear for a closed-door deposition last month. That prompted Republicans to advance a resolution to hold him in contempt of Congress — after a surprise appearance from Hunter Biden as one of the panels debated the measure. A full House vote is scheduled for next week, after which the Department of Justice could decide whether to bring charges against Hunter Biden. Lowell argued that the original subpoenas from the Judiciary and Oversight committees, issued in November, were invalid because the House did not formally vote to authorize an impeachment inquiry into Biden until December. In a joint statement later on Friday, Comer and Jordan defended the legality of their subpoenas from November and said they plan to move forward with holding Hunter Biden in contempt of Congress — “for now.” “House Republicans have been resolute in demanding Hunter Biden sit for a deposition in the ongoing impeachment inquiry. While we are heartened that Hunter Biden now says he will comply with a subpoena, make no mistake: Hunter Biden has already defied two valid, lawful subpoenas,” Comer and Jordan said in the statement. They added, “While we will work to schedule a deposition date, we will not tolerate any additional stunts or delay from Hunter Biden. The American people will not tolerate, and the House will not provide, special treatment for the Biden family.”
Comer, Jordan say House contempt resolution stands, despite Hunter Biden’s deposition reversal -House Oversight and Judiciary Chairs James Comer (R-Ky.) and Jim Jordan (R-Ohio) said Friday they will continue to pursue contempt of Congress charges against President Biden’s son, Hunter Biden, even though he’s agreed to sit for a closed-door deposition.The House panels voted to advance Hunter Biden’s contempt charges during a raucous hearing Wednesday, due to his refusal to sit for a scheduled closed-door hearing. The president’s son instead demanded that his deposition be in public.He reversed course Friday, saying he will sit for a closed-door deposition after all. Despite the decision, House Republicans said they will continue to pursue charges until a date is scheduled.“While we are heartened that Hunter Biden now says he will comply with a subpoena, make no mistake: Hunter Biden has already defied two valid, lawful subpoenas,” the pair said in a statement.“While we will work to schedule a deposition date, we will not tolerate any additional stunts or delay from Hunter Biden,” they continued. “The American people will not tolerate, and the House will not provide, special treatment for the Biden family.”The subpoenas Biden violated were part of the House GOP’s investigation into Biden family business deals, specifically business between Hunter Biden, the president, and his uncle, James Biden.Biden initially denounced the subpoena, claiming that the closed-door deposition demand was part of a scheme to twist his words and make him look worse. He unexpectedly showed up to the contempt hearing Wednesday, quickly leaving after attracting the scorn of the GOP members.
Biden campaign on defense after reelection bid faces scrutiny - President Biden’s reelection campaign is on the defensive as it faces scrutiny over whether it’s been aggressive enough against former President Trump, with several prominent Democrats questioning its strategy and structure. Some of those prominent democrats, most notably former President Obama, have reportedly expressed concerns over the structure of the campaign in which not enough staff are empowered to make decisions who don’t first have to involve a select few in the White House, according to reporting by The Washington Post. The campaign has pushed back on the criticism, arguing that it’s scaling up at the right time while it looks to make waves in the new year with a more public, full-throated condemnation of Biden’s predecessor. A Biden campaign speech on Friday showcased that strategy, during which he argued Trump was a threat to democracy to mark the third anniversary of the Jan. 6 riot, when the former president’s supporters stormed the Capitol. Biden struck the same aggressive tone in a campaign speech Monday at Mother Emanuel Church, where a white supremacist murdered nine people in 2015.
Michelle Obama: ‘I am terrified about what could possibly happen’ in 2024 election | The Hill (youtube video) Michelle Obama says fears about the 2024 White House race keep her up at night. “I am terrified about what could possibly happen,” Obama said of this year’s presidential election in an interview on Jay Shetty’s “On Purpose” podcast, released Monday. “Because our leaders matter. Who we select, who speaks for us, who holds that bully pulpit — it affects us in ways that sometimes I think people take for granted,” the former first lady said when asked to name some of her biggest fears keeping her awake.“The fact that people think that government, does it really even do anything? And I’m like, ‘Oh my God, does government do everything for us.’ And we cannot take this democracy for granted. And sometimes I worry that we do,” Obama, 59, said.“Those are the things that keep me up,” she said, while also listing wars “in too many regions,” the future of artificial intelligence, education, whether the public is “too stuck” to their phones, and voter engagement among her chief concerns.
Biden campaign responds to report on Obama warnings about Trump -- The Biden campaign defended its strategy in response to new reporting on criticism from former President Obama on the structure of the Biden campaign and on his concern about former President Trump’s strength as a political candidate going into 2024. Quentin Fulks, principal deputy campaign manager for President Biden’s reelection bid, on Sunday defended the campaign’s approach and stressed that Obama and Biden are aligned in their position that Trump needs to be defeated. “We’re going to continue to do what we need to do in order to be competitive and in order to make sure we’re growing the infrastructure that we need to win. President Obama and President Biden talk frequently, as do the campaign and former operatives from President Biden’s administration and his campaign,” Fulks said in an interview on NBC News’s “Meet the Press” when asked how the campaign is responding to Obama. “But the one thing is that we’re both aligned on the fact that we have to push back on MAGA extremists and the threat that they pose to freedom and democracy. And so we’re focused on doing just that.” “The president has been very clear that the experience he got as [vice president] serving with President Obama has been critical to the experience that he brings to the job and what he’s been able to accomplish. But we’re united in the fact that we have to do everything we can to push back on Donald Trump and the threat that he poses to democracy,” he added.
Biden, Trump each pitch existential fear of the alternative to voters -- To listen to the two leading candidates for the White House tell it, there’s much more on the line in November’s election than control of the executive branch. President Biden has warned democracy, truth and the character of the nation is at stake in 2024. He has told donors a victory this November could very well save American democracy, underscoring the grave threat he believes former President Trump poses to U.S. institutions. Trump, for his part, has used dystopian language to describe a nation teetering on the edge of destruction if Biden wins reelection. At one recent rally in Sioux Center, Iowa, Trump said the country was “dying” and “a mess” and claimed if Biden remains in office, immigration will become such a problem that “we’re not going to have a country.” Democrats and Trump critics lambaste comparing the two messages in any way that elevates the risk of a second Biden term to those of a second Trump term. They cite Trump’s own words suggesting he’d be a dictator on day one and calling for prosecuting his opponents. “There are some conservatives who are trying to make this claim that somehow Biden is a bigger risk than Trump,” former Rep. Liz Cheney (R-Wyo.) said on “The View” Wednesday. “My view is I disagree with a lot of Joe Biden’s policies. We can survive bad policies. We cannot survive torching the Constitution.” But the intensity of the rhetoric from Biden and Trump gets at the reality that each side is seeking to motivate its base voters with grave warnings of what the future of the country would be under the alternative. And the success of those messages could be critical assuming Trump wins the GOP nomination and faces Biden in the fall. Such a contest would likely be close and largely could depend on turnout, strategists in both parties have long pointed out. In both 2016 and 2020, several thousand voters across a handful of swing states ultimately decided the outcome of the election. The Hill/Decision Desk HQ polling averages show Trump leading Biden in a hypothetical rematch in November by roughly 1 percentage point. Swing state polling has been mixed, with Biden leading Trump in Pennsylvania in a Quinnipiac University poll released Wednesday, and Trump leading Biden in Michigan in a Detroit News poll released this week. And in an election where a large number of voters don’t want to elect Biden and Trump, convincing supporters to turn out because of the danger of the alternative could be key. “There’s a limited pool for each side to go after,” said Sean Spicer, a former Trump White House press secretary. “One of the greatest motivators is fear.” Biden’s campaign has embraced the idea that democracy itself is on the ballot in 2024, echoing the message that helped propel him to the White House in 2020. “As we begin this election year, we must be clear: Democracy is on the ballot. Your freedom is on the ballot,” Biden said in his first campaign speech of the year, delivered Jan. 5 in Pennsylvania. “Whether democracy is still America’s sacred cause is the most urgent question of our time,” he added. “And it’s what the 2024 election is all about.”
Iowa winter weather threatens caucus turnout — A powerful blizzard put a freeze on campaign events Friday as candidates look to make their final case to Iowans ahead of Monday’s caucuses. Former United Nations Ambassador Nikki Haley’s campaign announced she would hold three telephone town halls in Webster, Plymouth, and Pottawattamie counties Friday after canceling in-person events in those areas. Meanwhile, the pro-DeSantis super PAC Never Back Down postponed events in Clear Lake and Marshalltown, where the governor was slated to speak. On top of Friday’s blizzard, extreme lows in the negative teens are expected on caucus night, leading many to question how the inclement weather will impact turnout and results Monday. Six inches of snow had fallen in Des Moines as of noon Friday. Johnston reported more than 7 inches of snow, and Fairfield clocked in at 11-and-a-half inches, according to the Des Moines Register. Iowa’s Department of Transportation said Friday that U.S. Route 6 in the southwest of the state was “impassable” from near Council Bluffs to Lewis. “Dangerous whiteout conditions, drifting snow, and slick roads over most of the state are making travel in Iowa treacherous. Travel is highly discouraged,” the department warned Friday. But the inclement weather did not stop the DeSantis campaign from holding two in-person events Friday. The governor attended a breakfast club outside of Des Moines early in the morning and added an event at his “get out the vote” office in Urbandale. “The snow is not going to slow down the hardest-working candidate and team in Iowa. We are ADDING an event for this afternoon,” DeSantis campaign spokesperson Andrew Romeo said ina post on X. The blizzard comes at a crucial point in the campaign, with three days to go until caucus night. While many caucusgoers have made up their mind, there is still room for movement.
Trump team argues assassination of rivals is covered by presidential immunity - Former President Trump’s legal team suggested Tuesday that even a president directing SEAL Team Six to kill a political opponent would be an action barred from prosecution given a former executive’s broad immunity to criminal prosecution. The hypothetical was presented to Trump attorney John Sauer who answered with a “qualified yes” that a former president would be immune from prosecution on that matter or even on selling pardons. In the hearing that reviewed a motion from Trump’s team to toss his election interference charges, Sauer argued that presidents can only be criminally prosecuted if they have already been tried and convicted by the Senate. “He would have to be impeached and convicted,” Sauer replied. That argument received heavy pushback from a three-judge panel of the D.C. Circuit Court of Appeals as well as the team of special counsel Jack Smith. Judge Michelle Childs, a Biden appointee, noted that a president could resign rather than face impeachment, something that under the framework of Trump’s attorneys would allow them to dodge future prosecution. James Pearce, a lawyer with Smith’s office, forcefully pushed back against the notion that mechanisms to hold presidents accountable for criminal actions should be weakened. “What kind of world are we living in … if a president orders his SEAL team to murder a political rival and then resigns or is not impeached — that is not a crime? I think that is an extraordinarily frightening future that should weigh heavily on the court’s decision,” Pearce said. At one point, Judge Florence Pan, another Biden appointee, noted that Trump’s legal team argued essentially the opposite case when he faced a second impeachment, in this case for his conduct related to the Jan. 6 attack on the Capitol.
Judges skeptical of Trump arguments for broad criminal immunity A three-judge panel during a hearing Tuesday appeared broadly skeptical of former President Trump’s claims that he enjoys broad presidential immunity from prosecution on charges related to the 2020 presidential election. Trump’s lawyers took a firm position, arguing former presidents such as Trump can only face prosecution if they are first impeached and then convicted by the Senate. They have asked the court to toss the case entirely. But the three-judge panel appeared poised to reject those arguments, warning that Congress may not always choose to impeach a president for unlawful conduct, and that such a stance would prohibit prosecutors from later acting on new evidence of crimes if it went unweighted by the Senate. Trump attended the hearing in person before the District of Columbia Circuit Court of Appeals, leaving the campaign trail less than a week before the Iowa caucuses to travel to the nation’s capital. Trump’s legal travails have helped him on the campaign trail, where he has a big lead on GOP rivals in Iowa and nationally. At the courthouse, Trump spent the hour-plus argument largely staring ahead, making brief comments to his lawyers. John Sauer, Trump’s attorney, was peppered by the judges with a number of hypotheticals about the extent a president would be shielded from prosecution if they were not impeached for the conduct, such as ordering SEAL Team Six to kill a political rival or selling presidential pardons. Sauer said his answer was a “qualified yes.” “He would have to be impeached and convicted” first, Sauer said, before prosecutors would be able to contemplate a case against a former president. But the judges pushed back heavily on those arguments. At one point, Judge Florence Pan, a President Biden appointee, noted that Trump’s legal team argued essentially the opposite case when he faced a second impeachment, in this case for his conduct related to the Jan. 6 attack on the Capitol. “It seems many senators relied on that,” Pan said.
Ty Cobb says former president poses ‘gravest threat to democracy we’ve ever seen’ Former White House lawyer Ty Cobb warned that people need to take former President Trump seriously as a threat to democracy. CNN anchor Erin Burnett asked Cobb about an argument from Trump’s legal team Tuesday that suggested a president directing SEAL Team Six to assassinate a political opponent is covered by presidential immunity. She pointed out Trump’s past comments praising Chinese President Xi Jinping and North Korean Leader Kim Jong Un and asked Cobb whether people should take Trump literally. “I think you have to take Trump seriously because he poses the greatest threat to democracy that we’ve ever seen,” Cobb said on “Erin Burnett Outfront.” Trump’s lawyers argued in front of a three-judge panel that former presidents can only face prosecution if they are first impeached and then convicted by the Senate. His legal team is claiming that Trump has presidential immunity from charges stemming from efforts to overturn the 2020 election — an argument that the three judges appeared skeptical of on Tuesday. Trump, who attended the hearing in person, is facing four charges from special counsel Jack Smith related to efforts to remain in power after losing the 2020 election. His legal team Tuesday answered hypothetical questions as to how far a former president could be shielded from prosecution under their argument. Trump attorney John Sauer answered with a “qualified yes” when asked if a former president would be barred from prosecution even if he ordered SEAL Team Six to take out a political rival. “He would have to be impeached and convicted,” Sauer said. Cobb pushed back on this argument, saying that the legal team is just hoping to delay the case. Trump’s trial regarding 2020 election interference is currently scheduled for March 4 — the first of his four criminal cases. “On the other hand, I think his legal arguments are interposed solely for delay,” Cobb said, suggesting that “it would be very scary if there’s no accountability” when someone attempts to stop the peaceful transfer of power. “I think the you know, lack of accountability that he desires, which Putin has, the Ayatollah has, Xi has, as you as you alluded to, you know, I think that he may want an America that is like that,” Cobb said.
Trump lawyer goes on defense after assassination comment: ‘He didn’t kill anyone’ - Former President Trump’s lawyer Alina Habba defended the immunity argument on Sean Hannity’s show brought by a Trump attorney during a Tuesday hearing, saying that Trump “didn’t kill anyone.” Trump’s attorney John Sauer said Tuesday, during the hearing that reviewed a motion to potentially toss his election interference charges, that the former president should have immunity from all prosecution to overturn the 2020 election since he was not convicted by the Senate, and because all of his conduct, currently under investigation, was part of his duty as the sitting commander in chief at the time. But when Sauer was asked during his appearance in front of the D.C. Circuit Court of Appeals panel if the president would be persecuted if he ordered SEAL Team Six to assassinate a political rival, he responded by saying that the action would be barred considering a former executive’s broad immunity to criminal prosecution. “He would have to be impeached and convicted,” Sauer said Tuesday. Hannity asked Habba later Tuesday the same hypothetical if the president would be acting in his “capacity” and if he would have “immunity.” In response, Habba slammed the judge for throwing out “hypotheticals that do not currently exist” and said that the team now needs to navigate “slippery slope” arguments. “The real facts are so easy to win that we have to argue now the slippery slope argument of if he kills someone, will [he] be held accountable,” Habba said. “He didn’t kill anyone. He didn’t cause an insurrection. He didn’t get charged for it. But they’re using hypotheticals to frighten America.” Sauer’s immunity argument received pushback from special counsel Jack Smith’s legal team and the three-judge panel. James Pearce, a lawyer with Smith’s office, went after the notion, saying that it would bring an “extraordinarily frightening future.” “What kind of world are we living in … if a president orders his SEAL team to murder a political rival and then resigns or is not impeached — that is not a crime? I think that is an extraordinarily frightening future that should weigh heavily on the court’s decision,” Pearce said Tuesday.
US Supreme Court to decide whether Trump is eligible to appear on the ballot -- On Friday, the US Supreme Court agreed to hear a legal challenge to a decision by the highest court of the state of Colorado barring former president Donald Trump from appearing on the ballot for the Republican primary election in the state. The decision by the Supreme Court to intervene in the case marks a further aggravation of the political and constitutional crisis in America. It is no exaggeration to state that at this point it is not clear whether the candidates nominated by each of America’s two establishment parties will appear on the ballot in every state. It is also unclear whether the loser will accept the result, or, for that matter, under what conditions the election will actually take place, if it takes place at all. On December 19, citing Trump’s violent effort to retain the office of president on January 6, 2021, having lost both the popular vote and the Electoral College vote in the November, 2020 election, Colorado’s Supreme Court barred Trump from appearing on the state ballot. The court based its decision on a constitutional provision from the Civil War era that prevents any individual who has served as “an officer of the United States” and has previously taken an oath to support the Constitution from holding office again if that person “engaged in insurrection or rebellion.” This constitutional provision in question, Section 3 of the Fourteenth Amendment, has been largely dormant since the aftermath of the Civil War, at which time it was originally used to bar those who had supported the slaveholders’ Confederacy from holding office. It was invoked again in 1919, in the aftermath of the October Revolution in Russia, to bar Wisconsin socialist Victor L. Berger, representing a district in Milwaukee, from the federal House of Representatives. The resort to this provision now, more than a century later, points to the extremity of the crisis now convulsing the American political establishment. The Colorado Supreme Court decision was followed a week later by a unilateral decision to remove Trump from the Maine ballot by Secretary of State Shenna Bellows, a Democrat. Meanwhile, state officials and courts in Michigan, New Hampshire and California have declined to remove Trump from the ballot. There are currently challenges to Trump’s ballot access pending in various procedural configurations in at least a dozen states. Republican officials aligned with Trump have responded to efforts to remove him from the ballot with provocative threats to retaliate by removing Democratic candidates from ballots in states they control, such as Texas and Florida. Speaking in Iowa Friday, Ron DeSantis, the fascistic Florida governor and a candidate for the Republican nomination, suggested that Biden could be removed from the ballot in Florida for allegedly allowing an “invasion” of immigrants. “You could make a case—we’re actually, I’m actually looking at this in Florida now. Could we make a credible case that Biden, because of the invasion of eight million?”
To disqualify or not to disqualify: The Supreme Court confronts the ‘laugh test’ - The reactionary Supreme Court is in a quandary as to how to decide the Trump disqualification case while retaining whatever credibility it has left. The court just voted to review the Colorado Supreme Court decision, but it really didn’t want to. Who is on the ballot for president is a political question and — although the court has this term wandered into two Trump cases, two abortion cases, one Jan. 6 obstruction case, five First Amendment/social media cases, five administrative law cases challenging the depth of the “deep state,” two major gun cases, a racial gerrymandering matter, ozone pollution rules and three property rights disputes — it normally doesn’t like to get embroiled in the political thicket. The ethically challenged court is already compromised in this case. Justice Clarence Thomas, unless he recuses himself, is compromised — his wife is identified with the insurrection of Jan. 6. Justice Brett Kavanaugh is compromised; Trump’s lawyer claims Kavanaugh owes Trump big time for his appointment, implying that the former president has him in his pocket. After all, Trump believes we are a government of men, not of laws. But the Supreme Court had to grant cert. We can’t have electoral chaos in the country, with some states keeping Trump on the ballot and others kicking him off. America needs a uniform national rule. The six Republican-appointed justices hold themselves out as “originalists,” textualists and strict constructionists in their doctrinal interpretation of the Constitution. If they were honestly true to their faith, they would disqualify Trump in a unanimous per curiam opinion. The text, structure, history and original understanding of Section 3 of the 14th Amendment disqualifies Trump flat out. So what is the off ramp? The Supreme Court could dispose of the case by concluding that there is insufficient evidence that Trump “engaged in insurrection.” But such a holding would defy credulity. We didn’t need a five-day trial in Colorado to determine that by “clear and convincing evidence” — we all saw it on national television. It is proved beyond any doubt in tweets, speeches and conduct. Trump is disqualified from holding office. Section 3 does not refer to the president as an officer who might be disqualified, but the history of the 14th Amendment makes clear that the framers intended Section 3 to apply to the president. And what sense does it make that an insurrectionist who had taken an oath so he could be a federal land assessor would be disqualified, while an insurrectionist who aspired to hold the highest office in the land would not? Moreover, one thing is clear from the history: The framers of the 14th Amendment did not want Jefferson Davis to become the president of the United States. The court could say that the presidency is not an “office … under the United States,” and is not an “officer of the United States,” but such a conclusion doesn’t pass the amorphous standard that Justice Elena Kagan has called the “laugh test.” As the Supreme Court of Colorado noted, the Constitution refers to the president as an officer or as holding office 25 times.
Trump 14th Amendment political challenger arrested on federal tax charges A Texas man who filed more than two dozen challenges to former President Trump’s ballot eligibility was arrested Tuesday on charges alleging he filed 17 sets of false tax documents to the IRS. John Anthony Castro was indicted last week on 33 counts of aiding the preparation of false tax returns. Prosecutors claim he ran a virtual tax preparation business that provided customers with tax returns beyond what they were actually owed, defrauding the government. “Castro would promise a significantly higher refund than taxpayers could receive from other preparers and on many occasions, offered to split the additional refund with taxpayers,” prosecutors said in court documents. “In order to achieve these larger refunds, Castro generated false deductions, that were not based in fact, and which were submitted without the taxpayer’s knowledge.” Castro was busted by an undercover police officer, prosecutors outlined, who posed as a customer for his tax services. While a reputable tax preparer promised the undercover agent a $373 tax return, Castro instead claimed he could get $6,007, and offered to split the difference in extra cash. The tax forms Castro then filed on behalf of the undercover officer contained nearly $30,000 in fraudulently claimed deductions, prosecutors said.
Cheney rejects Johnson’s claim she considered signing amicus brief on overturning 2020 election - Former Rep. Liz Cheney (R-Wyo.) on Sunday pushed back against Speaker Mike Johnson’s (R-La.) claim she considered signing an amicus brief on overturning the 2020 election results, noting she was only in communication with Johnson about the brief. Johnson, who was serving as the Republican Study Committee chair at the time, helped lead efforts to garner support among GOP members for an amicus brief that supported a Texas lawsuit aimed at overturning the 2020 election results in four swing states — Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. More than 100 House Republicans eventually signed the brief. In an interview that aired earlier Sunday with CBS News’s “Face the Nation,” Johnson told moderator Margaret Brennan he was surprised to see Cheney’s criticism of the brief because she “at one point … even considered signing on to that bill.” “I’ll tell you that that is a fact, to that amicus brief,” Johnson said. “And we talked about that at great length, and we had a difference of opinion on the law, and people can agree to disagree on that. But I’m telling you that the plain language of the Constitution has never changed.” Asked if his remarks are factual later on “Face the Nation,” Cheney said, “It is not.” “We were, as Mike said, in constant contact throughout that period,” Cheney continued. “I actually know precisely when he sent me the brief and precisely when, less than 30 minutes later, I told him my concerns with the brief. Mike knows that as well.” Cheney said she made clear to Johnson the brief itself was “legally and constitutionally infirm,” and that Johnson was misrepresenting the brief to the members of conference. Speaking Sunday, Cheney also pushed back on Johnson’s claims that he “has the right to reject or ignore the rulings of the court.” “We have dozens of state and federal courts that assessed the claims, asserted the constitutionality and rejected them. And Mike’s position — which people really need to think about because it’s so chilling — is that somehow as a member of Congress, he has the right to ignore the ones of those courts, to assert — absent any fact-finding — a fact that somehow he feels that something that happened was unconstitutional and therefore he can throw out the votes of millions of Americans. That’s tyranny, it’s not the rule of law.” In his interview with “Face the Nation,” Johnson touched upon his belief that the change in election laws without ratification violated the Constitution. “But I’m telling you that the plain language of the Constitution has never changed. And what happened in many states by changing the election laws without ratification by the state legislatures is a violation of the Constitution. That’s a — that’s a plain fact that no one can dispute,” Johnson said.
GOP senators slap down Trump on Jan. 6 ‘hostages’ - Republican senators are slapping down President Trump’s claim that people convicted of Jan. 6-related crimes are “hostages” who should be pardoned or set free by President Biden or a future president. Three years after a mob of pro-Trump protestors invaded the Capitol to stop the certification of the 2020 presidential election, GOP senators who witnessed the violence of that day bristle at the characterization of individuals who were convicted of crimes as “hostages” or political prisoners. “I don’t condone that characterization at all, no,” said Senate Republican Whip John Thune (S.D.) when asked about Trump calling Jan. 6-related convicts “hostages.” “We got a justice system and they’re working through it,” Thune said of the nearly 900 people convicted of Jan. 6-related crimes, including more than 200 people who have pleaded guilty to felonies. Sen. John Cornyn (Texas), a member of the Senate Republican leadership team, dismissed Trump’s claim — echoed by some other Republicans — that individuals who were convicted of destroying property or assaulting police officers in the Capitol are “hostages.” “Somebody who’s been duly convicted of a federal crime is not a hostage,” he said.
Georgia defendant in Trump election case files motion accusing Fani Willis of impropriety A defendant in the Georgia election interference case involving former President Trump claimed in new court filings that Fulton County District Attorney Fani Willis (D) and a top prosecutor in the case are engaged in an “improper” romantic relationship, making the indictment “fatally defective.” Mike Roman, a Philadelphia-based political operative who served as Trump’s director of Election Day operations on his 2020 reelection campaign and faces seven criminal charges, did not provide any hard evidence of the accusations. Roman’s lawyer, Ashleigh Merchant, claimed in court papers that “sources close” to both Willis and special prosecutor Nathan Wade indicated the pair are involved in an “ongoing, personal and romantic relationship.” “The instant Motion is not filed lightly. Nor is it being filed without considerable forethought, research or investigation,” Merchant wrote. The Hill has reached out to the district attorney’s office and Roman’s lawyer for comment. The Trump co-defendant claims that Willis and Wade traveled to “traditional vacation destinations” together — such as the Caribbean and Napa Valley — and have been seen in private together “in and about the Atlanta area.” The filing did not include documentation of those alleged trips. The filing also claims that “sources close to both the special prosecutor and the district attorney” said an ongoing, personal relationship between the pair that began before the election interference case was initiated. The Hill has not independently confirmed these claims. Wade worked in private practice but was hired by the district attorney’s office to help prosecute the election interference case, which resulted in charges against Trump and 18 others in a sprawling indictment last August. Wade was paid nearly $654,000 in legal fees in 2022 and 2023 as he worked on the investigation, county records show. The district attorney’s office authorizes those funds, according to the records. Roman’s attorney argued the setup amounted to an irreparable conflict of interest, seeking to dismiss the charges and block Willis, Wade and the Fulton County district attorney’s office from continuing to prosecute the case.
Trump: Georgia case ‘totally compromised’ after allegations against Fani Willis - Former President Trump on Tuesday insisted the case against him and several others in Georgia over efforts to overturn the state’s 2020 election results should be dropped after another defendant filed a motion accusing Fulton County District Attorney Fani Willis (D) of improper behavior. “You had a very big event yesterday as you saw in Georgia where the district attorney is totally compromised. The case has to be dropped,” Trump said after a hearing in Washington, D.C., over presidential immunity arguments in a separate, federal 2020 election interference case against him. “They went after 18 or 20 people. … She was out of her mind. Now it turns out that case is totally compromised.” “It’s illegal. What she did is illegal. So we’ll let the state handle that, but what a sad situation it is,” Trump added. Mike Roman, a Philadelphia-based political operative who served as Trump’s director of Election Day operations on his 2020 campaign and faces seven criminal charges,claimed in court filings Monday that Willis and a top prosecutor in the case are engaged in an “improper” romantic relationship, making the indictment “fatally defective.” Roman did not provide any hard evidence of the accusations. His lawyer, Ashleigh Merchant, claimed in court papers that “sources close” to both Willis and special prosecutor Nathan Wade indicated the pair are involved in an “ongoing, personal and romantic relationship.”
Fani Willis subpoenaed in top Trump Georgia prosecutor’s divorce case -- The Fulton County, Ga., district attorney who brought election interference charges against former President Trump was subpoenaed in an ongoing divorce case of a top prosecutor also involved in the matter, according to a court filing obtained by The Hill. Mike Roman, one of Trump’s co-defendants in the case, earlier this week accused District Attorney Fani Willis (D) of engaging in an “improper” romantic relationship with special prosecutor Nathan Wade, an outside lawyer whom Willis hired to work on the Trump prosecution.The filing shows that a process server delivered the deposition subpoena to Willis through her executive assistant Monday. The subpoena was first reported by The Wall Street Journal.. Roman’s lawyer filed court papers later in the day revealing the bombshell accusation, claiming that “sources close” to both Willis and Wade indicated the pair are involved in an “ongoing, personal and romantic relationship,” including going on vacations together. The revelation was made as part of a motion to get Willis disqualified and the case tossed, arguing that the setup amounts to an irreparable conflict of interest, because Wade is incentivized to prosecute the case to continue being paid “lucrative amounts.” Wade was paid nearly $654,000 in legal fees in 2022 and 2023 as he worked on the investigation, county records show. The Hill has reached out to a spokesperson for Willis for comment. Wade could not be reached for comment. The motion from Roman, a Philadelphia-based political operative who served as Trump’s director of Election Day operations on his 2020 reelection campaign and faces seven criminal charges, contained no hard evidence of the romance accusation.
Trump Georgia co-defendant wins 3-month delay in case --A Georgia judge granted one of former President Trump’s co-defendants in the Georgia election interference case a three-month delay in his proceedings Thursday.“As a current member of the General Assembly, the Defendant is automatically entitled to a continuance and stay from ‘all aspects of the case,’” the latest filing in Georgia state Sen. Shawn Still’s (R) case read.The filing deadline for pretrial motions in Still’s case have been extended to mid-April. “All other provisions, including initial reciprocal discovery obligations, remain in place,” the filing read. “Additional extensions will only be considered upon filing of a particularized motion containing a detailed, fact-based explanation of the need for the extension, including the amount of time needed.”Still and two other “fake electors” charged in Georgia with the former president tried to move their charges to federal court but were blocked from doing so in September 2023. U.S. District Judge Steve Jones said in three different rulings that David Shafer, Cathy Latham and Still couldn’t claim that they had been acting as federal officials when they signed documents in December 2020 saying they were the Peach State’s electors.“The Court finds that Shafer was not a federal officer when operating as a Republican-nominated presidential elector,” Jones wrote in Shafer’s case.Fulton County District Attorney Fani Willis (D), who brought the case against Still, Trump and other co-defendants, was recently subpoenaed in a divorce case of a prosecutor involved in the matter. Another co-defendant, Mike Roman, accused Willis of engaging in an “improper” romantic relationship with special prosecutor Nathan Wade earlier this week in a motion.In the wake of Roman’s accusations, the former president went after Willis.“You had a very big event yesterday as you saw in Georgia where the district attorney is totally compromised. The case has to be dropped,” Trump said. “They went after 18 or 20 people. … She was out of her mind. Now it turns out that case is totally compromised.”
Trump’s New York fraud trial wraps with business empire at stake: Recap - Closing arguments in former President Trump’s New York civil fraud trial concluded Thursday as the 2024 GOP front-runner once again briefly departed the campaign trail for another courtroom appearance this week.The former president was front row as his legal team and state lawyers make their final case in a matter in which the attorney general is asking for Trump to be barred from New York’s real estate business and force him to pay nearly $370 million in penalties for falsifying financial records.The judge overseeing the case will be the sole decider of what penalties Trump will ultimately face. He indicated that he hopes to make a decision by Jan. 31. Follow below for a recap of the day from New York. Former President Trump’s civil fraud trial has come to a close after his lawyers and lawyers for the New York attorney general’s office made their final arguments to the judge.Judge Arthur Engoron, who is overseeing the bench trial with no jury, will be the sole decider of the case. He said Thursday he hopes to issue a decision by Jan. 31, though warned that’s not a “promise” or “guarantee.”Letitia James, the New York attorney general, has asked Engoron to force Trump to pay a nearly $370 million penalty for falsely altering his net worth on key financial statements to receive tax and insurance benefits.The state has also asked the judge to bar the former president from New York’s real estate business for life.
Court documents list Jeffrey Epstein’s associates among political, corporate, celebrity elite - Three troves of previously sealed court documents related to deceased billionaire financier and sex trafficker Jeffrey Epstein were released by a federal court in New York City late last week. Contained in the unsealed documents are the names of more than 150 people, including high-profile and powerful individuals within the capitalist establishment—politicians and celebrities, as well as less well-known figures from corporate, academic and scientific circles. The 180 exhibits, totaling 2,644 pages of mostly unredacted records, were released by Manhattan US District Judge Loretta Preska. The documents are court records from the defamation lawsuit brought in 2015 by one of Epstein’s victims, Virginia Giuffre, against the billionaire’s longtime confidante, Ghislaine Maxwell. Giuffre, who was a teenager when Maxwell facilitated and participated in her abuse by Epstein and others, filed the suit after Maxwell called her a liar. In a criminal prosecution in 2021, Maxwell was convicted of conspiring with Epstein in his sex-trafficking operation and is now serving a 20-year sentence in a Tallahassee federal prison. Judge Preska ruled in December that the Giuffre lawsuit documents should be unsealed and made public. They comprise depositions, incident reports, court filings, emails and other documents, and include the names of witnesses, accusers, members of Epstein’s staff, members of law enforcement and other people linked to Epstein. The documents provide little new information about Epstein’s abuse of under-age girls. It has long been established that he and elite individuals associated with him engaged in depraved and criminal activities for decades without being arrested or prosecuted. According to Judge Preska, most of the information in the newly unsealed documents had already been made public and the papers do not include salacious material about individuals other than Epstein. As reported by CBS News, “Much of the information has been previously reported, and many of those whose names are mentioned are not accused of any wrongdoing.” However, the documents—largely derived from the testimony of women who were victimized by Epstein from the 1990s up to his first arrest in Florida on sex charges in 2007—provide further evidence that the socialite and billionaire wealth manager was well connected to a wide range of political, corporate and entertainment celebrities during the first two decades of his criminal sex trafficking operation. In his 2007 prosecution, Epstein was charged in a 50-page indictment involving the Palm Beach Police Department and an FBI investigation that included 34 minors. The charges against Epstein involved allegations of sexual abuse of under-age girls as young as 12, some of whom were transported to his private residences in Paris for lavish parties attended by his elite guests. In the end, through the intervention of US Attorney for the Southern District of Florida Alex Acosta, Epstein was given a slap on the wrist. A non-prosecution agreement was negotiated by his legal team, including Alan Dershowitz, which enabled the sex offender to plead guilty to state charges of “procuring for prostitution a girl below age 18.” When asked later about his intervention, Acosta said he offered a lenient plea deal because he was told that Epstein “belonged to intelligence” and was “above his pay grade.” Acosta said he was instructed to “leave it alone.”
Epstein’s Brother Tells Tucker Why He Doesn’t Think Billionaire Killed Himself, Says He ‘Can’t’ Get ‘Answers’ -- The brother of deceased pedophile Jeffrey Epstein claimed Thursday to Daily Caller co-founder Tucker Carlson that he doesn’t believe the billionaire killed himself, stating that he “can’t get any answers” from officials.Epstein’s brother, Mark, appeared on Carlson’s Twitter show to discuss his brother’s infamous death in 2019. Carlson began by asking Mark if he believed that Epstein had killed himself, following his investigation into the death. “When I first heard he was dead from suicide, I had no reason to doubt it. So I accepted that. But then after the autopsy, and after Bill Barr made that asinine statement, I said ‘this was not a suicide,'” Mark stated. Mark continued to state that he had at first “accepted” Epstein’s suicide “as a fact,” highlighting that he had first heard about it on CNN because the “government didn’t notify” him. Epstein’s brother stated that he had first inquired about the billionaires death “after the autopsy,” noting that both a city and private pathologist claimed that it didn’t “look like a suicide.”“When did you start to think that he did not kill himself?” Carlson questioned.“Well, after the autopsy and both pathologists – the city pathologist and Dr. [Michael] Baden came out of the autopsy and they said, ‘this doesn’t look like a suicide. It looks more like a homicide,'” Mark stated. Mark went on to explain to Carlson his next steps in attempting to get to the bottom of his brother’s death, stating that he “started to inquire” into Epstein’s death certificate. “I started to inquire about what took place in the Justice Department was supposedly investigating. The initial death certificate said pending when it said cause of death, which means pending further investigation. So but then a few days later, it was declared as suicide by the chief pathologist [Dr. Barbara Sampson] who was not at the autopsy. And the questions became what investigation was done in such a short period of time to make her determine it was a suicide or was she basing it on Barr’s statement.”After being ruled as a suicide, Mark claims that the “investigation” was stopped, alluding that it could have been a way to “cover it up.” Epstein’s brother additionally noted that after meeting with officials from the Department of Justice, every question was answered by going back to the suicide ruling. “And you know, when they call it a suicide, they stop investigating. Because if there’s a suicide, there’s really nothing to investigate – if it’s a suicide, because somebody killed themselves, case closed. So that’s how they can just sort of cover it up,” Mark stated.
Supreme Court won’t hear case over FBI national security demands of X - The Supreme Court on Monday refused to hear an appeal from X, formerly known as Twitter, seeking to make public the number of times the FBI requested user information from the company in connection with national security investigations. The social media company sued the government in 2014, during the Obama administration, after it was blocked from publishing the quantity of requests in its biannual online “Transparency Report,” claiming the government unlawfully restrained its speech. In its petition to the high court, X argued it’s critical to make the standards for discussing the extent of governmental surveillance “clear, settled and constitutionally adequate.” “History demonstrates that the surveillance of electronic communications is both a fertile ground for government abuse and a lightning-rod political topic of intense concern to the public,” X wrote. The government’s arguments were largely filed under seal due to the inclusion of classified information. Two lower federal courts ruled that the FBI rightfully barred the publication of the data to protect national security. A federal district court in 2020 ruled that the government’s classification decision was justified and that “no more narrow tailoring of the restrictions can be made.” In March, a three-judge panel of the 9th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals affirmed that decision, with Circuit Judge Daniel Bress, a President Trump appointee, writing that the government’s redactions of the Transparency Report were “narrowly tailored in support of the compelling government interest in national security.” Bress also said the government’s classified declarations spelled out the importance of keeping confidential the number and frequency of intelligence requests made to social media platforms such as X. “Against the fuller backdrop of these explicit illustrations of the threats that exist and the ways in which the government can best protect its intelligence resources, we are able to appreciate why Twitter’s proposed disclosure would risk making our foreign adversaries aware of what is being surveilled and what is not being surveilled—if anything at all,” he wrote.
Legal hurdles laid bare in CFPB's proposal to supervise Big Tech firms --The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau faces stiff opposition from Big Tech firms on its plan to supervise peer-to-peer payment providers and digital wallets, while banks generally support bringing large payments companies under federal oversight on par with depository institutions.CFPB Director Rohit Chopra has repeatedly warned about the expanding reach of large technology companies and how they have infiltrated the financial sector and monetize data in ways that may unfairly impact consumers. The CFPB received 60 comment letters on its November proposal that would define and establish rules for larger participants in the P2P payments market, allowing the CFPB to supervise for compliance with consumer financial protection laws. Some experts suggest the CFPB will use its examination authority to determine if Big Tech firms are protecting against "unfair, deceptive and abusive acts and practices," as well as privacy rights and the rights of consumers transferring money."This is the first step in the CFPB getting authority to look under the hood on an ongoing basis and take steps to correct any shortcomings in the market," said Adam Rust, director of financial services at the Consumer Federation of America.The CFPB said that the rule would apply to at least 17 of 190 potential companies in the large participant universe, though it did not mention any by name. Experts have been compiling their own lists, which include Alphabet Inc.'s Google, Amazon, Apple, Block — which owns Square and Cash App — Meta Platforms and PayPal, which owns Venmo, among others. Big Tech companies and fintechs said in comment letters that the CFPB failed to identify the dangers to consumers from specific markets and to conduct a cost-benefit analysis as required by law. The Computer & Communications Industry Association, whose members include Amazon, Meta and X, said the CFPB had failed to provide reasons why smartphone payments and wallet services were risky to consumers. "Despite having studied the market for nonbank digital consumer payment apps through extensive market monitoring orders, the CFPB has not issued a report or pointed to other evidence that this purported market presents any such risks to consumers," wrote Krisztian Katona, a CCIA lobbyist. "It is paramount for the CFPB to carefully determine if there is a market failure or a risk for consumers that requires this additional regulation."The proposed rule follows recent complaints against digital payment apps, including a CFPB report issued last year detailing more than 1,000 complaints from service members, veterans and their families. Chopra also has repeatedly warned consumers that funds held by digital payment apps may not be protected by federal deposit insurance. Chopra has had Big Tech in his sights since he was confirmed as CFPB director, issuing an order requesting data and comment on Big Tech firms in 2021.
New York Times-ChatGPT lawsuit poses new legal threats to artificial intelligence - After a year of explosive growth, generative artificial intelligence (AI) may be facing its most significant legal threat yet from The New York Times. The Times sued Microsoft and OpenAI, the company behind the popular ChatGPT tool, for copyright infringement shortly before the new year, alleging the companies impermissibly used millions of its articles to train their AI models. The newspaper joins scores of writers and artists who have sued major technology companies in recent months for training AI on their copyrighted work without permission. Many of these lawsuits have hit road bumps in court. However, experts believe The Times’s complaint is sharper than earlier AI-related copyright suits. “I think they have learned from some of the previous losses,” Robert Brauneis, a professor of intellectual property law at the George Washington University Law School, told The Hill. The Times lawsuit is “a little bit less scattershot in their causes of action,” Brauneis said. “The attorneys here for the New York Times are careful to avoid just kind of throwing up everything against the wall and seeing what sticks there,” he added. “They’re really concentrated on what they think will stick.” Generative AI models require mass amounts of material for training. Large language models, like OpenAI’s ChatGPT and Microsoft’s Copilot, use the material they are trained on to predict what words are likely to follow a string of text to produce human-like responses. Typically, these AI models are transformative in nature, said Shabbi Khan, co-chair for the Artificial Intelligence, Automation, and Robotics group at law firm Foley & Lardner. “If you asked it a general query …. it doesn’t do a search and find the right passage and just reproduce the passage,” Kahn explained. “It will try to probabilistically create its own version of what needs to be said based on a pattern that it sort of picks up through parsing billions of words of content.” However, in its suit against OpenAI and Microsoft, the Times alleges the AI models developed by the companies have “memorized” and can sometimes reproduce chunks of the newspaper’s articles. “If individuals can access The Times’s highly valuable content through Defendants’ own products without having to pay for it and without having to navigate through The Times’s paywall, many will likely do so,” the lawsuit reads. “Defendants’ unlawful conduct threatens to divert readers, including current and potential subscribers, away from The Times, thereby reducing the subscription, advertising, licensing, and affiliate revenues that fund The Times’s ability to continue producing its current level of groundbreaking journalism,” it adds. In response to the lawsuit, an OpenAI spokesperson said in a statement that the company respects “the rights of content creators and owners” and is “committed to working with them to ensure they benefit from AI technology and new revenue models.” Brauneis said some of the “most impressive” portions of the Times case are its repeated examples of the AI models simply regurgitating its material, nearly verbatim. Earlier copyright lawsuits haven’t been able to show such direct reproductions of their material by the models, Khan noted. In recent months, courts have dismissed claims from plaintiffs in similar lawsuits who argued that the outputs of particular AI models infringed on their copyright because they failed to show outputs that were substantially similar to their copyrighted work. “I think [the Times] did a good job relative to what maybe other complaints have been put out in the past,” Khan told The Hill. “They provided multiple examples of basically snippets and quite frankly more than snippets, passages of the New York Times as reproductions.”
House Financial Services Committee forms AI working group --Leaders of the House Financial Services Committee have created a bipartisan working group on artificial intelligence to explore the impact of AI across the financial services and housing industries.As a continuation of the progress made by the legislative body's task force on AI, committee Chairman Patrick McHenry, R-N.C., and ranking member Maxine Waters, D-Calif., announced Thursday that the newly debuted council will aid in reviewing and implementing the directives from President Biden's executive order on AI." The 12-person committee, led by Digital Assets, Financial Technology and Inclusion subcommittee Chairman French Hill, R-Ariz., and subcommittee ranking member Stephen F. Lynch, D-Mass., will delve into how AI is affecting the development of new products and services, fraud prevention, compliance efficiency and the enhancement of supervisory and regulatory tools.
Coscoin: Fraud warning over cryptocurrency investment app --Police have warned people not to invest in a cryptocurrency investment platform following reports of fraud.Coscoin, also known as Cos or Cosetek, describes itself as "a leading AI quantitative trading platform" where people can double their investments.However, reports to police from across the UK have seen people unable to access or withdraw their money since the end of November.In the north-east of England, 78 victims have come forward with a total loss of £214,869, with an average loss £2,900 per person, police said.The North East Regional Organised Crime Unit (NEROCU) have issued a warningfollowing multiple reports of fraud.Officers said the structure of Coscoin, believed to be based in Washington in the US, appeared to also incentivise users to recruit people to the platform in what appeared to be a Ponzi or pyramid scheme.The BBC spoke to a former Nissan employee who felt he had been used as "a puppet" by someone claiming to work for Coscoin, after leaving work to become a WhatsApp group administrator for a cryptocurrency app, only for users to find they were unable to access investments.Andy Watson investigates 'COS' which appears to have cost North East users thousandsDet Insp Paddy O’Keefe, who leads the economic crime team, said: “When it comes to money, it might sound repetitive but, if it sounds to good to be true it probably is.“Criminals will also create scams promising to recover investments so please avoid any instances where you could be victim to further frauds linked to your original loss.”NEROCU have urged people to report if they believe they have been a victim to Action Fraud, as it helps them build intelligence pictures to help warn others.
Self styled "crypto genius" scams victims out of millions - Some 100 people are seeking legal help after being scammed by a self-styled crypto investor from Hengelo. The 23-year-old, who has since disappeared, convinced his victims to part with “millions”, one of the duped told local broadcaster RTV Oost. The man, who has built a reputation as a “crypto genius”, gave investors regular updates on the profit they had made which they could cash or reinvest. Several people did convert their crypto currency to euros but it is now thought the money was simply paid out of their fellow investors’ money. The total number of possible victims is likely to be larger than 100 because the man’s client mailing list had around 300 names on it, the broadcaster said. “Legal action could be directed at the person or the professional parties involved, such as the banks and crypto platforms,” lawyer Arjon Tieman said. “The question is to find out to what extent a bank has a duty of care when the account of a young person is showing such huge amounts of money coming in,” he said. None of the victims has reported the man to police. “We are looking at the best of way of handling this, and if we should pull together and file a mass claim,’ Tieman said. So far there is no trace of the missing millions.
Cybersecurity firm Mandiant has its Twitter account hacked to promote cryptocurrency scam -- Google-owned cybersecurity company Mandiant has found itself in the awkward position of having to wrestle back control of its Twitter account, after it was hijacked by scammers yesterday. The official Mandiant account, which is followed by over 100,000 people, was seized by scammers promoting links to a phony website which claimed to offer free $PHNTM cryptocurrency tokens (but which was actually aiming to drain punters’ wallets. The hackers renamed the account “Phantom”, and changed its biog to pretend to belong to the Phantom cryptocurrency wallet. The fraudsters taunted Mandiant in a series of tweets as it struggled to regain control of its account. One of the messages advised the cybersecurity company to change its password, and another pointed out it would be wise to check what the Twitter account may have bookmarked while it was under the control of the scammers. As you likely noticed, yesterday, Mandiant lost control of this X account which had 2FA enabled. Currently, there are no indications of malicious activity beyond the impacted X account, which is back under our control. We’ll share our investigation findings once concluded. It’s obviously reassuring to hear that Mandiant had two-factor authentication enabled on its Twitter account, as that does provide a higher level of security. However, it perhaps also serves as a timely reminder to all of us that having 2FA turned on does not mean that an account is impossible to compromise. It will be interesting to hear what Mandiant has to share about the security breach, and what other companies could learn from the incident.
Crypto scam: Inside the billion-dollar ‘pig-butchering’ industry -- Fraudulent crypto investment schemes directed from Asia known as “pig butchering” have become a global billion-dollar industry. But little is known about those who benefit. Reuters traced at least $9 million linked to such scams to an account registered to a well-connected representative of a Chinese trade group in Thailand. Over the past two years,Chinese businessman Wang Yicheng has forged relationships with members of Thailand’s law-enforcement and political elite, the trade group’s online posts show. During that time, a cryptocurrency account registered in Wang’s name was receiving millions of dollars linked to a type of cryptocurrency investment scam known as pig butchering, a Reuters investigation has found. In total, crypto worth more than $90 million flowed into the account between January 2021 and November 2022, according to registration documents and transaction logs reviewed by Reuters. Of that, at least $9.1 million came from a crypto wallet that U.S. blockchain analysis firm TRM Labs said was linked to pig-butchering scams. Two other major crypto-tracking firms also said the account received funds linked to such scams. The victim of one of the scams was a 71-year-old California man. He sent money to crypto wallets that channeled more than $100,000 into the account in Wang’s name, according to blockchain analysis company Coinfirm. The man’s family told Reuters he lost about $2.7 million, his life savings, after falling prey to someone claiming to be an attractive young woman called Emma. The previously unreported transactions provide rare insight into the finances of pig-butchering scams, which involve engaging unsuspecting people online. Scammers cultivate trust and then persuade victims to invest in fraudulent crypto schemes, sometimes via fake websites built to look like legitimate trading platforms. Sometimes the targets initially receive real returns to trick them into believing the scheme is legitimate. Such scams have drawn intensifying scrutiny from global law enforcement over the past year, but little is publicly known about the people behind them. Wang, who is 41 according to the account registration documents, didn’t respond to detailed questions for this article. Neither did the Thai government, the Thai police or the Bangkok-based trade group Wang represented, the Thai-Asia Economic Exchange Trade Association. Some aspects of the pig-butchering operation remain murky. Lisa Wolk, a blockchain intelligence analyst at TRM, said the crypto account in Wang’s name “is a node in a money laundering network and not necessarily the ultimate recipient of funds.” Reuters was unable to determine whether anyone else benefited from the account or used Wang’s identity to open it. In January, agents from the U.S. Federal Bureau of Investigation and the U.S. Secret Service attended a briefing about cyber fraud, according to Erin West, a California prosecutor specializing in cybercrime who participated. A 72-page presentation prepared for the attendees, which Reuters reviewed, provides details on cyber scams operated from Southeast Asia and cites Wang as among alleged beneficiaries. The presentation depicts money flowing into a crypto wallet identified as belonging to Wang, notes his role at the Thai-Asia association, and includes a picture of his identity card and other photos of him. The crypto account registered to Wang was held at Binance, the world’s largest crypto exchange, according to three blockchain analysis firms. Asked about the account, Binance spokesperson Jessica Jung declined to comment on individual users or Reuters’ findings. In an August post on its website, the company said the number of reports of pig-butchering scams it had received this year was double that of 2022, an increase it attributed to an influx of inexperienced crypto investors and scammers looking to exploit them. Crypto fraud has emerged as a multibillion-dollar criminal specialty that has entrapped victims around the world. In the United States alone, victims reported losses of $2.6 billion from pig butchering and other crypto fraud last year, more than double the previous year, according to the FBI. The true scale of the losses is unknown because victims are often too embarrassed to report crimes to authorities. In April, the U.S. Department of Justice said it seized about $112 million worth of crypto linked to pig-butchering scams, without identifying suspects. A warrant that resulted in the seizure of more than half that amount specified a Binance account registered in Thailand.
Crypto bulls see bitcoin flying to $100,000 with ETF approval - Cryptocurrency bulls say bitcoin could surge to more than $100,000 this year after the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission made a pivotal step to approve the first-ever U.S. spot bitcoin exchange-traded fund. Several crypto investors CNBC spoke with said they see the world's top cryptocurrency rising in 2024, as the effects of approval of a bitcoin ETF, which would diversify the range of investors that can gain exposure to the cryptocurrency, begin to become more apparent. Bitcoin's price hasn't moved a great deal since the news of the SEC ETF approval came in, which saw the agency give 11 products the green light. The regulator approved rule changes to allow the creation of the ETFs, but stressed that this move "should in no way signal the Commission's willingness to approve listing standards for crypto asset securities." Prices reacted to that substantially since the SEC's move Wednesday. Bitcoin's price was trading at $46,118 apiece Friday, down around 0.4%. It briefly topped $49,000 to levels not seen since December 2021. Over time, though, ETFs, coupled with other developments in the crypto world, are expected to drive major upward movements in bitcoin. ETFs allow more retail investors to hold bitcoin indirectly via a share traded on a stock exchange. Investors expect acceptance of the token could begin to become more mainstream with more and more institutions like BlackRock, Fidelity, and others offering these products. Anthony Scaramucci, founder of SkyBridge Capital, said he's been increasing his exposure to bitcoin, ethereum, solana and other cryptocurrencies over the past year.
Hacker hijacked phone number to post fake SEC tweet - On a week when the Securities and Exchange Commission was expected to announce whether it would approve bitcoin ETFs, a hacker got access to the SEC's account on X, formerly known as Twitter, and falsely claimed Tuesday that the commission had approved such funds. The fiasco caused major fluctuations in the price of bitcoin. In a post on X after the SEC regained control of the account, the commission acknowledged its X account had been compromised and that it had not approved spot bitcoin exchange-traded products. An official X account said the compromise was not due to any breach of the social media platform's own systems. Rather, through a third party, "an unidentified individual" gained control over a phone number associated with the SEC's official government account. In the post, X also claimed the SEC did not have two-factor authentication enabled at the time the account was compromised, which came as a surprise to Rachel Tobac, CEO of cybersecurity awareness company SocialProof Security. "This is pretty wild to hear," Tobac said in a post on X, adding she was curious to see what the SEC would report in its own findings. The SEC so far has not provided details on how the hack occurred.
$100 Billion Bitcoin And Crypto ETF Price Crash Suddenly Accelerates After Serious Fed Warning—Hitting Ethereum, XRP And Solana - Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies—including top ten coins ethereum, and solana—have fallen sharply despite a huge $10 trillion bitcoin price bet. The bitcoin price has dropped almost 10% over the last 24 hours, weighing on the price of ethereum, XRP, solana and other top ten cryptocurrencies, wiping around $100 billion from the combined crypto market following its bitcoin spot exchange-traded fund (ETF) surge. Ahead of the bitcoin price crash, legendary bitcoin and crypto trader Arthur Hayes had warned the Federal Reserve could be about to trigger a 30% bitcoin price crash—predicting "a vicious washout" in coming months. Bitcoin's historical halving that's expected to cause crypto price chaos is just around the corner! Sign up now for the free CryptoCodex—A daily newsletter for traders, investors and the crypto-curious that will keep you ahead of the market "I am preparing for a vicious washout of all the crypto tourists in March of this year," Hayes, the chief investment officer of family office Maelstrom and the former chief executive of the bitcoin derivatives pioneer exchange BitMex, wrote in a blog post. "I loaded up on crypto in the second half of 2023, and I believe now until April is a no-trade zone in terms of the addition of risk." The bitcoin price could crash between 20% to 30%, according to Hayes, due to "a dollar liquidity rug pull." However, he said he expected the bitcoin price to quickly rebound due to the Federal Reserve restarting its money printer. "Bitcoin initially will decline sharply with the broader financial markets but will rebound before the Fed meeting," Hayes said. "That is because bitcoin is the only neutral reserve hard currency that is not a liability of the banking system and is traded globally." The 2022 bitcoin price crash, which wipes $2 trillion from the bitcoin, ethereum, XRP, solana and crypto market, was widely attributed to the Federal Reserve ramping up interest rates and reducing its balance sheet in response to soaring inflation that risked spiralling out of control.
Bank Think: What are stablecoins good for, other than enabling speculation? | American Banker The cryptocurrency world is changing rapidly as major exchanges like Binance and Tether address scandals, while established companies like PayPal or even the first big banks like the Société Générale nonchalantly unveil stablecoins. These competing developments raise important questions about the industry's resilience and goals. As global brands dip their toes in the waters, the ongoing drama surrounding longtime power players continues to shape public perceptions. It prompts a re-examination of how well the sector fulfills its promises of independence, security and mass adoption.In the midst of these controversies, regulatory bodies like the Financial Conduct Authority and the European Banking Authority strive to bring order to an inherently turbulent landscape. Yet, the overarching question persists: Does cryptocurrency possess a genuine use case beyond its role as a speculative investment?Stablecoins are currently said to be the closest to this change. These are cryptocurrencies whose value is pegged to a generally stable fiat currency, for example, the U.S. Dollar, and are therefore hardly subject to any fluctuations.While stablecoins do find utility as a base currency for navigating between volatile cryptocurrencies, their broader application as a fiat money alternative remains elusive. In a landscape where traditional payment solutions offer safety, affordability and widely available systems, businesses and consumers find no compelling reason to embrace stablecoins. Until this missing use case is convincingly addressed, stablecoins risk relegation to the domain of speculative asset-enablers rather than evolving into essential tools for everyday financial transactions.Conversely, the existing fiat money system, with its familiarity and stability, holds clear advantages. Fiat currencies provide a resilient foundation for global economic transactions, ensuring seamless interactions. Fiat money commands the trust and confidence of consumers, a sentiment built over generations of dependable use. However, advocates for stablecoins often tout their potential to serve as a financial lifeline for the unbanked and underbanked in regions lacking traditional banking infrastructure. Indeed, people in volatile currency regions use stablecoins to hedge against the common surprises of ups and downs. Despite that, practical challenges in converting cryptocurrencies into cash, particularly in areas where daily sustenance hinges on physical money exchange, remain a significant hurdle to day-to-day adoption. The ability to convert stablecoins into local currency stands as a crucial yet absent link, hindering individuals from realizing the transformative potential. Even more crucially, governments — like Argentina, India or China to name a few — actively oppose large-scale adoption of cryptocurrencies, as such a transition would challenge their grip on their nation's monetary policy. Until stablecoins effectively address these challenges and seamlessly integrate into local economies, their transformative promise remains unrealized. No matter how virtuous the vision, it shatters against the reality of practical obstacles.
BankThink: Blockchain could be a transformative technology. It's just not money. | American Banker — A long time ago I did a podcast series about cybersecurity — you can listen to it here — and the final episode was about quantum computing. The gist of the story was that the thing that keeps that cryptography secure is the sheer bigness of the prime numbers that hold the mechanism in place. Normal computers, even very big and powerful computers, can't compute those gigantically huge numbers quickly — but quantum computers can. That is, in part, why so many countries and private companies are pouring billions into developing ever-more-powerful quantum computers and quantum-proofing the global public key cryptography infrastructure.But the thing about quantum computers is that they're not necessarily faster or better at everything than "classical" computers — the ones we use all the time, with ones and zeros. In fact, for a lot of applications, classical computers outperform quantum computers. In other words, the advancement of quantum computers is not likely to make all classical computers obsolete — it's a cybersecurity threat, but one that can be managed so long as policymakers take it seriously, and it could have some very helpful applications elsewhere. But it's not a digitalVishnu, destroyer of worlds; it's just a tool.The same can be said for blockchain, the indelible distributed ledger technology that powers the cryptocurrency names you know like Bitcoin and Ether. Not very long ago there was a great deal of hype around the potential applications of blockchain, most notably its potential todecentralize all manner of financial transactions and disintermediate banks and other financial institutions by making those transactions "trustless," or independently verifiable and unchangeable. The hype around blockchain has ebbed considerably since November 2022, when one of the world's largest crypto exchanges, FTX, turned out to be a gigantic scam. So it was with some surprise that I read in my local newspaper that the City of Baltimore, where I live, is turning to this de-hyped technology as part of an initiative to address the persistent problem of vacant and derelict properties. An even longer time ago, I did a podcast series about vacant housing and why exactly it is so hard to return vacant properties to productive use — especially at a time when housing supply is so tight and costs are so high. There is no short answer to that question, but rather it is the product of dozens of little obstacles and disincentives that make entire neighborhoods undesirable places to live. Just one of those problems is the challenge of identifying vacant and derelict homes and figuring out who they belong to — property records are partly digitized, but when owners die it isn't always apparent who rightfully owns a home or even if the rightful owners know that they possess a vacant house in Baltimore. Figuring out that requires expensive and time-consuming title searches, sopping up time and money that a prospective buyer was presumably trying to save by rehabilitating a vacant house rather than buying a house the old-fashioned way.As with quantum computing and codebreaking, this is precisely the kind of thing that blockchain — if well-designed and executed — can do faster, cheaper and more reliably than the horse-and-buggy system than most cities use for property records. There are many ways that such a system can fail, for example by inputting false information into the blockchain, but at least the retrieval can be made simpler, and the longer the system is in place the more efficient it may become. The point I'm making is that there is a kind of hype life cycle that tends to accompany new technologies — discovery, followed by irrational exuberance, followed by market correction, followed by actual application and widespread adoption. The discovery of radium in the early 20th century spurred a wave of health products aimed at harnessing the naturally invigorating power of radiation for commercial use, only for scientists to discover later that radiation is super dangerous — but it does have some limited commercial applications. Blockchain, it seems, is not so very different — and perhaps now that we aren't blinded by the prospect that crypto is the future of money, we can finally see what this technology can really do.
Senate fails to override veto of small-business data collection rule The Senate failed to override President Biden's veto of a resolution to nullify the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau's small-business data collection rule. The Senate on Wednesday voted 54-45, falling short of the two-thirds majority needed to override the president's veto last month of a Republican-led resolution to gut the small-business data collection rule under the Congressional Review Act. The rule, known as 1071 for its section in the Dodd-Frank Act, is currently on hold pending the outcome of a Supreme Court case challenging the constitutionality of the CFPB's funding. The bureau finalized the rule last year and was promptly sued by bank trade groups. Sen. Sherrod Brown, D-Ohio, chairman of the Senate Committee, said after the vote Wednesday that he applauded lawmakers' "affirmation of the 1071 rule," saying the rule was designed to promote access to credit and to combat discrimination in small-business lending."The outcome of today's vote is a win for the engines of our economy: Small businesses, businesses and entrepreneurs," Brown said in a press release. Lawmakers knew early on that Biden would veto the resolution, so the vote to nullify the rule was largely symbolic. Still, Congressional Review Act challenges that pass both the House and the Senate are rare, especially those that can draw bipartisan support.
Federal Reserve hits four bankers for mishandling private data - The Federal Reserve Thursday issued enforcement actions against four former bankers for misappropriating sensitive bank information and barred one from further employment in the banking industry. The Fed said in a consent order that John Freeze, a former employee of the Bank of Jackson Hole — a Wyoming-based bank with $656 million of assets — had "received over 280,000 electronic documents" including those containing confidential supervisory information belonging to the Fed Board of Governors, shortly after being terminated by the bank. The order forbids Freeze from working at any insured depository institution, bank holding company or subsidiary. The Fed also issued enforcement actions against three former employees of Farmers and Merchants Savings Bank, a $737 million-asset bank based in Manchester, Iowa. The employees — Randy Johnson, Chad Kellogg and Jeffrey Hines — had each left Farmers and Merchants to work at a nonbank financial institution that is not supervised by the Federal Reserve and "misappropriated FMB confidential information to facilitate the transferring of FMB customers to the other financial institution," according to the Fed's consent order.Johnson, Kellogg and Hines were not prohibited in their orders from working in the financial industry, but are required as part of any such employment agreement to furnish their consent orders to their prospective institutions and abide by all rules and regulations pursuant to such employment. Each was also fined $50,000 as part of the consent order.
CFPB issues advisories on background checks The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau issued new advisories addressing inaccurate background checks and credit reporting on Thursday, in part aimed to give individuals increased access to their files and opportunities to identify sources. Tied to regulations within the Fair Credit Reporting Act, the new opinions come after a 2023 public inquiry from the CFPB and Federal Trade Commission, which asked consumers to describe their experience with background checks, used by employers and landlords to screen applicants. In the more than 600 responses received, many renters described the years of negative impact erroneous information on their background reports played in limiting housing opportunities and the difficulties they had in removing data. "Background check and other consumer reporting companies do not get to create flawed reputational dossiers that are then hidden from consumer view," said CFPB Director Rohit Chopra, in a press release. "Background check reports, and all other consumer reports, must be accurate, up to date and available to the people that the reports are about." In related advisory opinions issued Thursday, the CFPB puts the onus on companies issuing background checks, who are governed by the FCRA, indicating they "must maintain reasonable procedures to avoid producing reports with false or misleading information." Among their obligations, companies must prevent reporting of information from public records that have been expunged, sealed or otherwise restricted, the CFPB said. Background checks also must properly note outcomes of all arrests, criminal charges, evictions or other court filings and eliminate duplicate information.
Regulators will take comments on Basel III endgame impact analysis - Federal regulators will give the public a chance to weigh in on the projected economic impactsof their proposed capital reforms for large banks.During a public appearance on Tuesday afternoon, Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr said the central bank's findings will be used to shape the final version of the so-called Basel III endgame proposal, which is expected to be released later this year."We'll analyze that information, and, on an aggregated basis, we'll publish that information. We'll give people a chance to comment, in effect, on the impact itself," Barr said during an event hosted by the professional group Women in Housing and Finance. "That is an important part of the input that we get as part of the proposed rulemaking process, an important part of getting public input and public comment. So, it will feed into how we develop the final proposal."Prior to Barr's remarks, Fed officials had not disclosed that the impact data would be made open to public comment.The Fed invited banks to submit data about how they would be affected by the proposed capital framework — which introduces new risk weights for all banks with at least $100 billion of assets — in October. The Fed's announcement said it would make summaries of its findings available to the public, but did not mention seeking commentary on those findings. Along with the data collection effort, the central bank also announced that it would extend the comment period on the Basel III endgame proposal by six weeks. The comment period and the data submission window both close next Tuesday, Jan. 16.The economic impact analysis of the capital changes — or lack thereof — has been an ongoing concern among banks and their allies since the proposal was put forth over the summer. In September, several banking trade associations sent a letter to regulators asking them to better detail the research findings that underpinned the changes than re-propose the rule. The groups accused the Fed, Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. and Office of the Comptroller of the Currency of shirking their obligations under the Administrative Procedure Act, setting the stage for a potential legal challenge down the road.Barr made mention of additional data collection during the Federal Reserve Board's public meeting on July 27, during which it proposed the rule change. He said the additional data would be used to "refine our estimates of the rule's effects." It is unclear whether the central bank always intended to seek public input on its findings, or if the move is a response to the feedback it has received in recent months. A Fed spokesperson declined to comment Wednesday afternoon.
Industry says Basel rule violates law if it isn't revised -- In a joint comment letter released on Friday, a coalition of financial trade groups said federal bank regulators' proposed Basel III endgame capital rule lacked the necessary justification and evidence required by the Administrative Procedure Act. The letter — co-signed by the Bank Policy Institute, Financial Services Forum, Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association, and the U.S. Chamber of Commerce — called for the agencies to rescind and re-propose the rule. It also marks the industry's latest, most forceful threat to agencies: If the rule is not delayed and significantly amended, regulators . "The proposal assigns risk weights to bank assets and exposures generally based on no data or analysis; ignores voluminous data on loss experience held by the agencies and the private sector that could have informed an accurate calibration; fails to consider alternative, more accurate measures of risk, including some negotiated by agency staff at Basel; and ignores altogether a duplicative capital charge imposed by the Federal Reserve through its annual stress test," the letter said. "The only solution to its fatal substantive and procedural flaws is for the agencies to re-propose the rule"In a press statement accompanying the letter published Friday, Bank Policy Institute President and CEO Greg Baer said the Basel proposal "violates both the spirit and the letter of federal law," adding that the agencies, "by failing to show their work … have prevented meaningful comment not only by banks directly affected by the proposal but also by consumers, businesses and financial market participants who will see real costs as a result." The letter raises three specific concerns. First, the proposal would recalculate capital requirements for banking organizations with total assets of $100 billion or more under both the U.S. standardized approach and expanded risk-based approach, or ERBA, which introduces new standard risk measures for credit risk, operational risk, and credit valuation adjustment risk. Additionally, the proposal would use external models instead of banks current internal models to calculate the credit risk of risk-weighted assets. A new approach to market risk would also be introduced for both the U.S. standardized approach and the ERBA. Another argument the industry made against the proposal was that such revisions will raise the price and lower the profitability of many of the assets they hold, which they have argued could hurt lending, though experts are mixed on the impact higher capital would have on lending and the broader economy. "Those risk weights drive the bank's overall capital requirement and its ability to compete for capital against other companies," the letter noted. "The proposal would substantially increase the regulatory costs of about $22 trillion in assets held by banks subject to the proposal."
Republicans push back against FSOC designation guidance — House Republicans criticized the Financial Stability Oversight Council'srecent actions to reinstate its ability to designate nonbanks as systemically important. Rep. French Hill, R-Ark., chairman of the House Financial Services Committee's digital assets panel, said that FSOC's ability to designate nonbanks gives the body the ability to "sidestep Congress," specifically on issues related to digital assets. Hill is considered a frontrunner to be the top Republican on the House Financial Services Committee next Congress. FSOC recently finalized its nonbank designation guidance, reversing a move by the Trump administration to undercut that ability, which imposes large-bank-like requirements on nonbank financial firms. "The new guidance is intended to enhance protections for our financial system," Hill said at a hearing on the issue. "But in practice, this revision paves the path for potential abuse and unintended consequences and raises serious questions about whether FSOC is taking the best approach to actually address systemic risk." Hill referenced the work that the House Agriculture and House Financial Services Committees have done on a digital assets bill. That bill has gained some Democratic support, but still stands a relatively limited chance of passing into law in a divided Congress, and tensions among House Republicans after right-wing hardliners sabotaged their own party's spending deal this week. Still, with the finance committee's chairman Rep. Patrick McHenry, R-N.C., set to retire at the end of his current term, and his long history of working with Democratic ranking member Rep. Maxine Waters, D-Calif., the legislation could still see a final push later this year. Hill, who has also played a leading role in that legislation, raised concerns about what he perceives as FSOC's power over the process at the hearing on Wednesday. "FSOC is effectively telling Congress, in my view, that if you don't do things our way, we are going to consider nonbank financial companies such as digital assets companies systemically important," Hill said. "This would not be the carefully tailored approach that is being developed by the financial services committee and by the agriculture committee, and importantly it would mean only companies that FSOC has designated systemically important would be subject to these heightened standards."
Odds of US Bank Failures Rise with Office Space Loan Losses, Fed Interest Rate Mismanagement -by Yves Smith -- We pointed out last year during the Silicon Valley Bank and similarly-situated “too many supersized deposits” mini-panic that the bank tsuris was entirely the Fed’s creation. That bad spell of indigestion did not in and of itself point to a widespread crisis. The immediate cause (aside from inadequate supervision of deposit flight risk) was too many years of super low interest rates, which had lulled banks and investors into complacency about interest rates, followed by the worst possible action imaginable: a series of unprecedentedly fast increases in interest rates. Despite these bad conditions, we didn’t think in and of themselves they were portents of more widespread bank industry distress. The Fed created yet another emergency liquidity scheme. But we mistakenly thought it would recognize the systemic risk of keeping rates high (by recent standards) for much longer and would back as quickly as possible out of its overly aggressive stance.1The fact that the Fed has been able to “emergency liquidity program” its way out of every major problem it created or at least could have prevented has made the Fed insensitive to the risk of blowing up banks. And so problems that could have been tamped down via corrective action a year ago are instead metastasizing. We’ll discuss two recent articles that provide supporting evidence, one a new piece at the Financial Times on expected losses at the biggest US banks, the second a much broader-scope look by Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, based on an NBER paper, on how continuing high interest rates plus too many cubicle denizens refusing to turn up at the shop every weekday is devastating the value of big city office space, particularly in less than prime buildings.First to the Financial Times story, Largest US banks set to log sharp rise in bad loans:Non-performing loans — debt tied to borrowers who have not made a payment in at least the past 90 days — are expected to have risen to a combined $24.4bn in the last three months of 2023 at the four largest US lenders — JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Wells Fargo and Citigroup, according to a Bloomberg analysts’ consensus. That is up nearly $6bn since the end of 2022…The current level of non-performing loans is still below the $30bn peak of the pandemic. The big banks have indicated they think the rise in unpaid debts could slow soon. A number of banks cut the amount of money they put away for future bad loans, so-called provisions, in the third quarter….More recently though, delinquencies have been rising on consumer loans, particularly credit cards and car debt. That has made some analysts nervous, especially because what the banks are putting away for loan-loss reserves now is considerably smaller than what they set aside when bad loans were rising at the start of the pandemic.Bank stock prices are rising, which for now offers considerable protection against a widespread crisis. When financial firms become distressed, their borrowing costs shoot up, which is an immediate problem since a lot of their funding is short-tern. So increase in borrowing costs can translate very quickly into losses and in a more dire scenario, an inability to secure debt funding in needed volumes. Lenders want the sick borrower to raise more equity so they have better protection against borrower losses. But when banks are having liquidity problems, their stock prices plummet, so that raising new equity becomes catastrophically costly (assuming it can be done at all…).The very fact that big banks cheekily are not putting away as much as they have been to cover for possible loan losses can be viewed as a sign of confidence. Lower loan loss reserves also boost current profits. But banks and investors are essentially betting on the Fed easing off on interest rates. That is not a given. December job growth was much better than forecast, but in and of itself, that sign of economic peppiness wasn’t enough to rouse interest rate worry-warts. However, the stock jockeys are arguably underestimating the odds of Red Sea shipping disruption blowback. From Business Insider:Shipping companies including MSC, Maersk, and Hapag-Lloyd, as well as oil-and-gas giants such as BP, have responded to the [Houthi] attacks by diverting their vessels away from the Suez Canal, the waterway that connects Asia with Europe and the US.That means container ships are sailing around Africa’s Cape of Good Hope, making journey times about 40% longer, according to The New York Times….The Houthis’ attacks are already driving up big shipping companies’ costs. Drewry’s World Container Index, which tracks global container rates, jumped 61% over the first week of 2024, with the maritime research consultancy attributing the spike to the ongoing chaos in the Red Sea… The wild card is oil. Analysts so far have not expected Houthi action in the Red Sea to have more than a $3-$4 a barrel impact on oil prices. Experts think the Houthis would not threaten the Strait of Hormuz, which would presumably make Iran unhappy as well as seriously jack up oil prices. But what if the Houthis hit a tanker and make Middle East oil much pricier via both much higher insurance costs and shipper reluctance to transit while the area was too hot for their liking?
IRS move narrowing access to tax data sparks lender outrage - Small-business lenders are crying foul following a decision by the Internal Revenue Service to restrict their access to borrowers' tax information. Last week, the IRS issued a policy update stating only lenders making residential and commercial real estate loans would be permitted to access the Income Verification Express Service, the platform the agency uses to transmit tax returns to lenders. "The IRS will only provide IVES transcripts to mortgage lending firms for the sole purpose of obtaining a mortgage on residential or commercial real property (land and buildings)," the update — made public January 2 — stated. The stricter policy takes effect June 30. The decision will add time, complexity and expense to the process of obtaining a loan, according to small-business lenders. That is especially true for those that participate in Small Business Administration lending, since the SBA requires inclusion of tax returns in all the loan packages it reviews. "I think it's going to cause some serious disruption," Ryan Metcalf, Funding Circle's head of U.S. public affairs, said Tuesday in an interview. Funding Circle is one of three nondepository small-business lending companies SBA licensed to participate in its flagship 7(a) lending program in November.
Senate Democrats ask regulators to probe Navy Federal — A group of Democratic senators, led by Senate Banking Committee Chairman Sherrod Brown of Ohio, is asking federal regulators to review Navy Federal's lending practices in light of allegations of racial discrimination in mortgage lending. The letter, sent by Brown and nine other Senate Democrats — including Chair of the Senate Finance Committee Ron Wyden of Oregon and Chairman of the Armed Services Committee Jack Reed of Rhode Island — urges the Department of Housing and Urban Development and the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau to investigate Navy Federal Credit Union's mortgage lending. The push represents growing concern on the Hill about Navy Federal, and its allegedly discriminatory mortgage lending practices. "The Fair Housing Act and [Equal Credit Opportunity Act] prohibit discrimination in housing and in mortgage lending," the lawmakers said. "While it is appropriate for a lender to deny a mortgage application when the loan will not be sustainable for the borrower, those decisions are made based on a borrower's financial ability to repay the loan. It should go without saying that a person's race, or any other protected characteristic, should never be a factor." The credit union is currently facing a lawsuit that accuses the lender of discriminating against minority home loan applicants. The $168 billion-asset institution is currently facing a lawsuit after a CNN report found that the credit union approved about 77% of mortgage applications from white borrowers, but only 56% of applications from Latinos and 48% from Black applicants in 2022.
National Realtors president resigns after blackmail threat -- The president of the National Association of Realtors on Monday said she was resigning due to a blackmail threat that sought to “compromise” her leadership role. NAR President Tracy Kasper said she had notified the group’s leadership team “that she recently received a threat to disclose a past personal, non-financial matter unless she compromised her position at NAR.” Kasper, a married mom of seven grown children, “refused to do so and instead reported the threat to law enforcement,” NAR said in a statement. President-elect Kevin Sears will immediately step into the post at the group, which represents more than 1.5 million members working in the residential and commercial real estate industries. Kasper, 55, did not immediately respond to CNBC’s request for comment. NAR in its statement said, “The Leadership Team is deeply concerned about any attempt to undermine its governance and, as a result, is taking steps to protect the integrity of the organization.” Kasper’s predecessor as president, Kenny Parcell, resigned in August, two days after The New York Times published a story detailing claims he had sexually harassed women he worked with. NAR CEO Bob Goldberg resigned in November, months earlier than he planned to step down, after a federal jury found the group and some residential real estate brokers were liable for a conspiracy to artificially inflate brokers’ commissions from home sales. NAR was ordered to pay $1.78 billion in that case.
Mortgage credit at tightest in over 10 years - Mortgage company mergers, size reductions and shutdowns have reduced loan product offerings to their lowest level in over a decade in December, the Mortgage Bankers Association found.The group's Mortgage Credit Availability Index was 92.1, down 4.6% from November's 96.5. It is also 10.8% down from 103.3 for December 2022."Credit availability declined in December to the lowest level since 2012, as ongoing industry consolidation is resulting in more loan programs being removed from the marketplace," said Joel Kan, the MBA's deputy chief economist, in a press release.Credit availability shrunk even as mortgage rates went from 7.79% the week of Oct. 26 and 7.22% for Nov. 30 to end last year at 6.62%, according to Freddie Mac. But the countering force of industry reductions took its toll. In the third quarter of 2023, independent mortgage bankers lost $1,015 per loan produced and Marina Walsh, the MBA's vice president of industry analysis at the time reiterated an earlier statement that she did not see a turnaround in that until the second quarter.Furthermore, at the group's annual convention in October, Walsh said more capacity remained to be wrung out of an industry that already dealt with large headcount reductions. Both components of the MCAI, conventional and government, dropped during December compared with November. The conventional portion was down by 3.2%, with its conforming subindex 5.9% lower, while the jumbo part was down by 1.3%."The decrease in the government index was driven by lower investor demand for renovation loans and streamline refinance loans," Kan explained. This component was 5.9% lower in December from November.The indices were set at 100 for credit conditions that existed in March 2012. The data comes from a program database maintained by ICE Mortgage Technology.December marked the ninth consecutive month that the MCAI was below that benchmark level.
MBA: Mortgage Applications Increased in Weekly Survey - From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly SurveyMortgage applications increased 9.9 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending January 5, 2024. The results include an adjustment to account for the New Year’s holiday.The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 9.9 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index increased 45 percent compared with the previous week. The holiday adjusted Refinance Index increased 19 percent from the previous week and was 30 percent higher than the same week one year ago. The unadjusted Refinance Index increased 53 percent from the previous week and was 17 percent higher than the same week one year ago. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 6 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index increased 40 percent compared with the previous week and was 16 percent lower than the same week one year ago. The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($726,200 or less) increased to 6.81 percent from 6.76 percent, with points remaining unchanged at 0.61 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans.The first graph shows the MBA mortgage purchase index.According to the MBA, purchase activity is down 16% year-over-year unadjusted. Purchase application activity is up from the lows in late October and early November, but still below the lowest levels during the housing bust.The second graph shows the refinance index since 1990.With higher mortgage rates, the refinance index declined sharply in 2022, and even with some recent increases, activity is barely off the bottom.
Are Hopes of Lower Mortgage Rates Freezing Up the Market Further? Buyers’ Strike Continues By Wolf Richter Hype in the media about real estate going to the moon or whatever is a never-ending drama. For example, on CNBC this morning, we read this headline: “Mortgage demand jumps nearly 10% to start the year, even as interest rates tick up again.” Which was a joke?This was in response to data by the Mortgage Bankers Association today that mortgage applications to purchase a home during the week ended January 5th had risen by 6% from the prior week, seasonally adjusted. But in that prior week, applications had plunged from the week before the holidays, and so today’s reading didn’t even go back to where it had been two readings ago, and was down from the same week in:
- 2023: -16%
- 2022: -48%
- 2021: -56%
- 2019: -42%
That tiny uptick today barely registers in the three-year 50%-plus plunge of mortgage applications to purchase a home, which in late 2023 had hit the lowest levels in the data going back to 1995 as the housing market has frozen up:Even in the close-up of the three-year decline, that tiny uptick today is hard to see amid much bigger ups and downs, and the total remains near the historic lows of last November:Refis are still in the deep-freeze. Mortgage applications to refinance an existing mortgage jumped a bunch from near-zero in the prior week but remained embarrassingly close to near-zero. Compared to the same week in 2022, refi applications were down by 81%; and compared to the same week in 2021, they were down by 91%:The entire mortgage industry got waylaid by the 80% to 90% collapse of the demand to refinance mortgages, and thousands of mortgage bankers got laid off over the past two years. Refis had been a big part of the business, and it collapsed when mortgage rates started rising.Makes sense: Who’d want to refinance a 3% mortgage with a 6.7% mortgage, unless you desperately have to pull a bunch of cash out of your inflated home-equity, hoping to sell the home in the near future, or to refinance it again after mortgage rates drop back to 3% or something?
Nearly 9 in 10 US homeowners have mortgage rate below 6 percent: Report Nearly 9 in 10 U.S. homeowners have a mortgage rate below 6 percent, according to a new report from the real estate company Redfin. Some 88.5 percent have a mortgage rate below 6 percent, down from a high of 92.8 percent of homeowners in in the second quarter of 2022, the report found. More than three-quarters of homeowners — 78.7 percent — have a mortgage rate below 5 percent, while nearly 6 in 10 — 59.4 percent — have a mortgage below 4 percent. Just 22.6 percent have a mortgage rate below 3 percent, according to Redfin. As the average mortgage rate currently sits at 6.66 percent, Redfin noted that many homeowners are opting to stay put in order to avoid higher rates, resulting in a phenomenon known as the “lock-in effect” that is helping fuel the country’s housing shortage. “A lot of sellers are worried about finding their next house because even though listings are rising, there’s still a housing shortage. That’s part of the reason so many sellers remain on the sidelines,” David Palmer, a Redfin Premier real estate agent in Seattle, said in a statement However, mortgage rates are lower than they were earlier this year, after climbing to nearly 8 percent in October, leading some homeowners to consider selling, according to the real estate company. “Sellers have started coming out of the woodwork because that’s typical for January and because mortgage rates have dropped,” Palmer said. “They’re also coming to terms with the fact that rates aren’t going back down to 3 [percent] any time soon, which makes it easier to pull the trigger on selling,” he added. Mortgage rates have climbed over the last two years alongside interest rates, which the Federal Reserve has repeatedly hiked in an effort to tame stubbornly high inflation. However, the central bank appears to be nearing an end to its rate hike campaign, after holding rates steady at its last three consecutive meetings. Financial markets are also increasingly hopeful that the Fed will begin cutting interest rates this year, after most Fed officials indicated in their economic projections in December that they anticipate at least two rates cuts in 2024.
CoreLogic: US Home Prices Increased 5.2% Year-over-year in November --The CoreLogic HPI is a three-month weighted average and is not seasonally adjusted (NSA). From CoreLogic: CoreLogic: US Home Price Growth Speeds Up Again in November
• U.S. home prices increased by 5.2% year over year in November, the strongest annual growth rate recorded since January 2023.
• Annual home price growth is projected to slow to 2.3% in the spring of 2024 before stabilizing for the rest of the year.
• Detroit was the nation’s fastest-appreciating metro area in November at 8.7%, ending Miami’s 16-month run in the top spot.
• Northeastern states again posted the nation’s largest price gains, with Rhode Island, Connecticut and New Jersey showing increases that were more than double the national rate. ... “Home price appreciation continued to push forward in November, despite the new highs in mortgage rates seen over the year,” . “And while the annual growth reflects comparison with last year's declines, seasonal gains remain in line with historical averages. However, in some metro areas, such as those in the Mountain West and the Northwest, higher interest rates are having a greater impact on homebuyers’ budgets, which is contributing to a larger seasonal slump. “This continued strength remains remarkable amid the nation’s affordability crunch but speaks to the pent-up demand that is driving home prices higher,”. “Markets where the prolonged inventory shortage has been exacerbated by the lack of new homes for sale recorded notable price gains over the course of 2023.”
Housing January 8th Weekly Update: Inventory Down 2.7% Week-over-week, Up 5.7% Year-over-year -Altos reports that active single-family inventory was down 2.7% week-over-week. Inventory will likely decrease seasonally until the Spring.This inventory graph is courtesy of Altos Research. As of January 5th, inventory was at 499 thousand (7-day average), compared to 513 thousand the prior week. Inventory is still far below pre-pandemic levels.The second graph shows the seasonal pattern for active single-family inventory since 2015. Note that inventory is up from the record low for the same week in 2022, but still well below normal levels.Inventory was up 5.7% compared to the same week in 2023 (last week it was up 4.4%), and down 39.0% compared to the same week in 2019 (last week down 34.4%). Back in June 2023, inventory was down almost 54% compared to 2019, so the gap to more normal inventory levels is closing.Mike Simonsen discusses this data regularly on Youtube.
Leading Index for Commercial Real Estate Increased in December, Down 11% from Peak --From Dodge Data Analytics: Dodge Momentum Index Improves 3% in December - The Dodge Momentum Index (DMI), issued by Dodge Construction Network (DCN), rose 3% in December to 186.6 (2000=100) from the revised November reading of 181.5. Over the month, commercial planning grew 1.0% and institutional planning improved 6.1%. “The Momentum Index ended the year 11% below the November 2022 peak, ultimately stabilizing as the year progressed. Regardless, the DMI averaged a reading of 184.3 in 2023, hitting levels of activity that haven’t been recorded since 2008,” stated Sarah Martin, associate director of forecasting for DCN. “While ongoing labor and construction cost issues will persist in 2024, a substantive amount of projects are sitting in the planning queue and will support construction spending going into 2025.” ... The DMI is a monthly measure of the value of nonresidential building projects going into planning, shown to lead construction spending for nonresidential buildings by a full year. This graph shows the Dodge Momentum Index since 2002. The index was at 186.6 in December, up from 181.5 the previous month. According to Dodge, this index leads "construction spending for nonresidential buildings by a full year". This index suggests some slowdown in 2024. Commercial construction is typically a lagging economic indicator.
Consumer Credit Shocker: November Debt Soars After Second Biggest Surge In Credit Card Debt On Record -- We, and many others, were wondering how it was possible that US consumers - already tapped out beyond a breaking point, with collapsing savings and declining real wages - were able to push holiday spending which started in November and continued until the end of the year - to record nominal highs. Now we know: according to the latest monthly consumer credit report from the Fed, in November, consumer credit exploded higher by $24.75BN, blowing away expectations of a "modest" $9BN increase after the surprisingly subdued $5.8BN (upward revised from $.5.1BN) in October and the $4.3BN average of the past 6 months. This was the biggest monthly increase since last November, and was the first $20BN+ print since Jan 2023. When looking into the details we find something remarkable: while non-revolving credit rose a modest $4.6BN... ... in keeping with the subdued increase in recent months as rates on auto loans make them prohibitive for most consumers while student loans are actually shrinking for the 2nd quarter in a row... ... what was the big shock in today's data was the blowout surge in revolving credit, which in November exploded by a whopping $19.133BN, a record surge from the $2.9BN in October, and the second biggest monthly increase in credit card debt on record! This, despite the average interest rate on credit card accounts in Q4 flat at a record high 22.75% for the second quarter in a row. What is especially surprising about this conirmation that the bulk of holiday spending was on credit is that it takes place after several months of relative return to normaly, when consumers appeared increasingly reluctant to max out their credit cards due to record high rates, and at a time when the personal savings rate in the US has collapsed back near multi-decade lows in recent months. Well, it now appears that Americans have once again done what they do so well: follow in the footsteps of their government and throw all caution to the wind, charging everything they can (and whatever they can't put on installment plans which also hit a record late last year) including groceries, on their credit card, and praying for the best... or not even bothering to worry about what comes next.
Inflation Expectations Tumble To Lowest Since Jan 2021, As Do Wage And Spending Growth, In Latest NY Fed Survey - After a few months of late summer increases in the 1-Year inflation expectation as tracked by the NY Fed's monthly consumer survey, December saw the third consecutive decline in this series which traditionally is also a proxy for the price of oil, and which last month dropped to the lowest since Jan 2021. The drop in 1 year inflation expectations was matched by moves in the other series, as both the 3 and 5 year inflation expectations also dropped notably in the last month of the year. And while that would be great news in isolation, it wasn't isolated, because as the NY Fed also found, the disinflation data is actually the "bad kind" since the December survey found that earnings growth and spending growth expectations also decreased to their lowest recorded levels since 2021. Here are some more details: as shown in the chart below, inflation expectations at the one-year horizon decreased to 3.01% in December from 3.36% in November, while median inflation expectations at the three- and five-year ahead horizon also dropped: to 2.6% from 3.0% at the three-year ahead horizon, and to 2.5% from 2.7% at the five-year ahead horizon. The survey’s measure of disagreement across respondents (the difference between the 75th and 25th percentile of inflation expectations) increased at the one-year ahead horizon, and decreased at the three-year and five-year ahead horizons. Amusingly, inflation views among those over age 60 retreated to a fresh three-year low, while every age group was also at or near a multi-year low. One almost wonders just who are these people the NY fed "randomly" calls up to "survey."
Beneath the Skin of CPI Inflation, December: Not in the Mood to Just Go Away by Wolf Richter - Inflation in core services remains hot, and in December increased by 5.3%, driven by housing; insurance of all kinds; admissions to fun stuff, such as concerts and sports events; and audio and video services, such as streaming and cable. Core services account for over 61% of the Consumer Price Index, and that’s where inflation has gotten entrenched.Durable goods prices fell again, with prices down quite a bit from the peak in August 2022, but they fell more slowly than before – as used vehicle prices ticked up for the second month in a row after a steep decline, even while wholesale prices continued to fall. New vehicle prices inched to a new record from their long and high plateau.Food at home t icked up to a new record from very high levels.And the energy components that consumers pay for directly, dominated by gasoline, inched up for the month, but were still down year-over-year.Core CPI, a measure of underlying inflation that excludes food and energy products, rose by 3.9% year-over-year in December, according to the CPI data released today by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, just a hair below the prior month (+4.0%), pushed down by the decline in durable goods, but pushed up by the jump in core services.Overall CPI rose by 3.4% year-over-year, an acceleration from the prior month (3.1%), and the fastest increase since September.The chart shows core services CPI (red), core CPI (blue), and overall CPI (yellow). Core CPI has just about flattened out at the 4% line.Core CPI, month-to-month, accelerated to 0.31% in December from October, the second month in a row of acceleration and fastest increase since September. Annualized, this increase amounts to 3.8% (blue in the chart below).The three-month moving average, which irons out the month-to-month ups and downs, rose by 0.27%, and has been increasing at roughly the same rate over the past three months (red). The chart shows the annualized percentage changes:The CPI for core services (without energy services) on a month-to-month basis rose 0.44% in December from November, or by 5.4% annualized. The three-month moving average rose by 0.41%, or by 5.1% annualized. Inflation in core services had decelerated in early 2023 through the summer but then began to accelerate again. Month-to-month annualized, the three-month moving average has accelerated from 4% during the summer to over 5% for the past four months, which is very disconcerting. The chart shows the annualized percentage changes:The Owners’ Equivalent of Rent CPI rose by 0.47% in December from November, or 5.8% annualized. The three-month moving average rose by 0.46%.The three-month moving average (red) shows how this rent index has re-accelerated from July onward. It looks like housing inflation, on a month-to-month basis, has now gotten hung up somewhere near the 6% range.The OER index accounts for 26% of overall CPI. It is based on what a large group of homeowners estimates their home would rent for and is designed to estimate inflation of “shelter” as a service for homeowners.
Why the Middle Class Benefits from Inflation -Central banks and the media have focused on the negative effect of inflation on real incomes. While this income effect is particularly salient for consumers, the overall impact of inflation is a combination of a negative income effect and a positive wealth effect. This column argues that the net impact of inflation on median wealth was positive in the US over the 1983-2019 period, and it also decreases wealth inequality when compared with the top 1%. Conversely, the recent drop in inflation is bad news for the middle class.The media and the Federal Reserve Board of Washington (‘the Fed’) are obsessed with the negative side of inflation – its effect on real incomes. On the basis of the Consumer Price Index, 1 the annual inflation rate reached a peak of 9.1% in June 2022, the highest level since June 1982, though it has since fallen to 3.1% in November 2023. On the current account front, this means that real income has eroded. This is the ‘income effect’ of inflation.However, there is an upside to inflation as well. Indeed, inflation has been a boon to the middle class in terms of its balance sheet. It is also a factor that has helped to promote real wealth growth and reduce overall wealth inequality. 2A simple example can illustrate this point. Suppose a person holds $100.00 in assets and has a debt of $20.00. Her net worth is then $80.00. Suppose inflation is running at 5% per year and the value of her assets also goes up by 5% over the year. Then, in real terms the value of her assets remains unchanged over the year. But what about her debt? In real terms her outstanding debt is now down by 5% and the real value of her net worth rises to $81.00 (100 – 20 x 0.95). In other words, the person’s real net worth is now up by 1.25% (81/80). It should be clear that the higher the ratio of debt to assets, the greater the percentage increase in net worth. (This, by the way, is the principle of leverage). For example, if the debt is $40.00 instead of $20.00, then net worth would grow by 3.33% (62/60).What is the net effect of inflation? The best way to decide on this issue is to compare the income effect of inflation with the wealth effect. If the income effect (which is always negative as long as inflation is positive) is greater, then the net effect is a loss. However, if the wealth effect is greater, then the net effect is a gain. Now, at least until recently, inflation has been quite moderate. Indeed, based on Current Population Survey data, real median household income actually rose by 34.4% from 1983 through 2019. However, without any inflation, median income would have grown by 229%. In dollar terms this amounts to a loss of $30,200 (in 2019 dollars) over these years. On the other hand, inflation by my calculations bolstered median wealth by 52.3% over these same years and this equals $42,700 in 2019 dollars (see Table 3). That is quite a bit greater than the income loss from inflation and here the wealth effect dominates the income effect. So, in terms of household well-being, inflation on net has been a boon to the middle class.The effect of inflation on the household balance sheet is more than just leverage. There are also impacts on bond values, stock values, and the value of liquid assets. Table 1 shows the time trends in the key ingredients for the analysis of the net inflation gain for years 1983-2019. By far the fastest rate of increase occurred for home prices and debt, 2.40% and 2.49% per year, respectively. This was followed by real bond values, at 1.64% per year, and then stock prices at 0.74% per year. In contrast, the real value of liquid assets declined at an average annual rate of 2.49%, mirroring that of the CPI-U-RS index.
Wholesale Used Car Prices Decreased 0.5% in December; Down 7.0% Year-over-year 00 From Manheim Consulting today: Wholesale Used-Vehicle Prices Decrease in December, End Year Down 7.0% Wholesale used-vehicle prices (on a mix, mileage, and seasonally adjusted basis) decreased 0.5% in December from November. The Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index (MUVVI) dropped to 204.0, down 7.0% from a year ago. Compared to December 2021, used-vehicle values are down nearly 21%. “December’s decline brought a volatile year to a close,” said Jeremy Robb, senior director of Economic and Industry Insights for Cox Automotive. “The spring bounce was much more pronounced than expected in 2023, and prices slid just as rapidly after that bounce, finishing more calmly in December as expected. The 7.0% year-over-year loss was larger than our original forecast, but it pales in comparison to the nearly 15% decline we had a year earlier. 2024 is looking to be less volatile than 2023, but we’ve been taught to expect the unexpected in the wholesale market.”The seasonal adjustment reduced the December decrease. The non-adjusted price in December declined by 2.0% compared to November, moving the unadjusted average price down 7.7% year over year.This index from Manheim Consulting is based on all completed sales transactions at Manheim’s U.S. auctions. The Manheim index suggests used car prices decreased in December (seasonally adjusted) and were down 7.0% year-over-year (YoY).
Used-Car Wholesale Prices Have Given Up 53% of their Crazy Pandemic Price Spike: Historic Plunge Continued in December by Wolf Richter - Used vehicle prices at auctions fell another 0.5% in December from November, seasonally adjusted; and by 2.0%, not seasonally adjusted, according to the Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index today. Manheim is the largest auto auction house in the US and a unit of Cox Automotive. Its auction venues sell about 5 million vehicles a year. The index is adjusted for changes in mix and mileage. The index price, at $18,110, has dropped by $4,792, or by 20.9%, from the peak in May 2022. During the incomprehensibly crazy run-up of prices from February 2020 through May 2022, the index had soared by $8,842, or by 63%, to $22,902. As of December, $4,792 or 53% of the $8,842 price spike has now vanished – a historic plunge, after a historically insane price spike. Auction prices stall or drop when dealers who go there to replenish their inventory buy less, and are more skittish about bidding up prices, and would rather walk away empty-handed than overpaying, knowing that they’re facing pricing resistance among their own customers. This all fell apart during the pandemic when dealers suddenly dealt with consumers that would pay anything for a used vehicle, instead of trying to drive a bargain. And dealers held their noses and cringed and bid up prices at auctions, knowing that they could still make huge amounts of money at those prices because consumers were just willing to pay whatever. And some of them even put their observations of this craziness on YouTube. Most people could have just continued to drive what they already had for another year or two, causing demand to collapse enough to where dealers would have had the choice of either eating their inventory instead of their daily bread or cutting prices. But no, not in 2020 and 2021, when money was free and fell like manna from heaven, price didn’t matter, and dealers raked it in. People who bought back in 2021 and 2022, are now driving vehicles whose values have plunged in a historic manner, in addition the normal depreciation. The question on everyone’s mind is this: How much more will used vehicle prices drop before the price increases start all over again?
Trade Deficit decreased to $63.2 Billion in November - The Census Bureau and the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported: The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that the goods and services deficit was $63.2 billion in November, down $1.3 billion from $64.5 billion in October, revised. November exports were $253.7 billion, $4.8 billion less than October exports. November imports were $316.9 billion, $6.1 billion less than October imports. Both exports imports decreased in November. Exports are up 0.4% year-over-year; imports are unchanged year-over-year. Both imports and exports decreased sharply due to COVID-19 and then bounced back - imports and exports are moving sideways recently. The second graph shows the U.S. trade deficit, with and without petroleum. The blue line is the total deficit, and the black line is the petroleum deficit, and the red line is the trade deficit ex-petroleum products. Note that net, exports of petroleum products are positive and have been increasing. The trade deficit with China increased to $21.6 billion from $21.1 billion a year ago.
Former NRA Executive Pleads Guilty To Fraud, Agrees to Testify In NY Civil Trial - Joshua Powell, former operations director of the National Rifle Association (NRA), has reached a settlement with the New York attorney general’s office over civil claims of fraud and abuse.Mr. Powell was employed by the NRA between 2016 and January 2020.The lawsuit brought by Letitia James, New York attorney general, alleged that Mr. Powell breached his fiduciary duties and failed to administer the charitable assets entrusted to his care by using his powers as an officer and senior executive of the NRA to covert charitable assets for the benefit of himself and his family members.He admitted the alleged wrongdoing and agreed to pay $100,000 to the NRA, to not serve as an officer in a nonprofit or charitable organization, and to testify against the NRA at the demand of Ms. James’s office, according to the settlement. Mr. Powell’s settlement was filed on the same day as the resignation of Wayne LaPierre, the longtime head of the NRA.“Joshua Powell’s admission of wrongdoing and Wayne LaPierre’s resignation confirm what we have alleged for years: the NRA and its senior leaders are financially corrupt,” Ms. James said in a statement. “More than three years ago, my office sued the NRA and its senior management for financial abuse and mismanagement. These are important victories in our case, and we look forward to ensuring the NRA and the defendants face justice for their actions.” NRA officials didn’t respond by press time to a request by The Epoch Times for comment.
Defendant who attacked Nevada judge returns to court in shackles, spit mask -- The man who attacked a judge in a Las Vegas courtroom last week was back in front of the same judge Monday in shackles and a spit mask. Deobra Redden faced Clark County District Court Judge Mary Kay Holthus in person Mondayfor the first time since he jumped from the defendant’s table, over the judge’s bench and began attacking her Wednesday.Redden was pulled off the judge by her clerk and other bystanders, who in turn punched and kicked Redden in defense. One courtroom marshal was hospitalized for a gash and dislocated shoulder.Monday’s hearing completed his sentencing on a prior battery charge, the purpose of the hearing that was interrupted by his attack. He will face a hearing on new charges related to the attack at a later date, Holthus said.Held by two bailiffs, with his hands chained and bound in orange protectors and wearing a webbed spit mask, Redden was sentenced to four years in prison for the battery charge. At least 19 months must be served before he is eligible for early release. After the attack last week, Redden was additionally charged with battery of a protected person, extortion and intimidating a public official.
Racial differences in school enrollment during COVID spotlighted - A new study in PNAS shows non-White students were more likely to not enroll in US school districts offering in-person instruction in of 2020, based on data from 9,000 districts representing 90% of public school students in the country. The opposite was seen with White students: They were more likely to not enroll in schools that began the 2020 school year virtually. Enrollment trends for both White and non-White students continued through the 2021-22 school year. "Given that prior research finds virtual instruction is associated with lower levels of student achievement, and the fact that enrollment directly determines school district funding, it is particularly important to understand how different racial groups responded to COVID policies," the authors wrote. Fall 2020 brought the biggest upheaval in public school enrollment in US history, with a 2.8% decline in public school enrollments, the largest single-year decline ever recorded. After controlling for several factors, the authors found that virtual districts experienced an average enrollment decline of 2.7%, compared with declines of 1.4% and 1.9% for in-person and hybrid districts, respectively. Enrollment declines in in-person districts were 48% smaller than those seen in virtual districts. Among the 9,000 districts included in the study 27% (enrolling 44% of students) started the 2020-21 year fully virtual, while 44% (enrolling 33% of students) started the 2020-21 school year in-person. School was in-person in almost all districts during the 2021-22 school year, but enrollments remained below prepandemic levels in 73% of districts. In 42% of districts (enrolling 35% of students), 2021-22 began without a mask requirement in classrooms. The drop in enrollments was starkest in urban districts; urban enrollments declined 3.2% in 2020-21 relative to 2019-20, and then dropped 4.3% below pre-COVID levels in 2021-22. In suburban and rural districts, enrollments declined by 2.6% in 2020-21 but recovered 0.1 percentage points of this decline in 2021-22. Overall, high school enrollments did not experience significant change in the pandemic, but kindergarten enrollments dropped by 10% in the fall of 2020 compared to the prior year. Elementary (grades 1 through 5) and middle school enrollments declined by 4.2% and 2.2%, respectively, the authors said. A total of 38% of students in virtual districts were White, compared with 66% in hybrid districts and 55% in in-person districts. Districts offering in-person instruction were more likely to be rural (27%) than those offering hybrid (22%) or virtual (11%) instruction. Virtual districts were also more likely to be politically liberally. "This geographic variation resulted in many large, urban districts (like Houston and Orlando) starting fall 2020 in-person and small, rural districts (e.g., in California) starting fall 2020 virtually," the authors noted. Racially, inverse trends among White and non-White students were noted. "White enrollment declined 2.7 percentage points less when the district adopted in-person learning (relative to virtual), while Black enrollment declined 3.1 percentage points more under the same scenario," the authors wrote. The authors suggested a number of reasons non-white students may have been leery of in-person school in 2020. Minority communities saw more COVID-19 illness and deaths early in the pandemic, with age-adjusted death rates from COVID-19 65% greater among Black and Hispanic people compared to Whites.
How an Ohio school is using job training to fight the opioid epidemic Salineville, Ohio doesn’t have a Chipotle or a Chick-Fil-A. The closest McDonald’s is 20 minutes away. People here feel lucky to have a gas station eatery, says local Bill Watson. About 40 miles south of Youngstown, this tiny town is the type of place that people leave. The place was built up by thriving pottery manufacturers and steel producers. But over time, those industries faltered, big businesses shuttered. “When they left, there was nothing else,” Watson said. Between 1980 and 2020, thousands of people fled the area. Then came opioids. “I would definitely say that in our region, it's really been an epidemic,” Watson said. “To find a household in southern Columbiana County that hasn't been impacted, I think would be difficult.” This is the reality that Utica Shale Academy is trying to change. The school serves at-risk, low-income teens who have left more traditional education and who, too often, find themselves at the center of this epidemic. Watson is its superintendent. “When we think of drug addiction and things of that nature, we think of an older demographic,” he said. “We're not realizing that it has trickled itself down to young teens.” Watson says some teens at the school battle addiction themselves. Others are impacted by friends or family members dealing with the disease. Many have lost loved ones to opioids. In the face of such odds, the school came up with an action plan. It applied for and received one of the state’s first Appalachian Community Grants through a program meant to bolster the economies and health infrastructure of Ohio’s 32 Appalachian counties. It used the money to build up its job training program, with a focus on trades like heavy equipment operation, welding and industrial maintenance. Despite the county’s declining population, instructor Matt Gates believes there’s still demand for this type of work. “A lot of the people who make up these factories are dying, retiring, and there's no longer younger kids or younger adults to fill in for that,” he said. “That's why we came up with these skilled trades to get the younger generation trained.” How job training can help As a result of the Appalachian Community Grant, Utica Shale Academy now has a brand new outdoor welding lab and high-tech equipment, like robotic arms, a mechanical drive and hydraulic cylinder. Rebecca Fleischman, a student at Utica Shale Academy, is learning how to operate a hydraulic cylinder. She likes the school because of its hands-on approach to learning. Her peer Brandon Eastek agrees. “I have ADHD, so it helps me so that I can do it at my own pace,” he said. When these kids graduate, they won’t just have a high school diploma, they’ll have technical certifications in fields that interest them — and, in turn, more job opportunities. Watson is hopeful those opportunities will help these young adults stay away from opioids. “People typically gravitate to either success or shortcomings,” he said. “And when you start creating success, it is an addictive thing in itself.” Watson hopes that success will boost not just his students but his local economy.
Missouri math teacher accused of using students as lookouts to have sex with teen -- A Missouri math teacher awaits extradition from Texas after she was tracked down on a warrant for allegedly having sex with one of her 16-year-old students and using other teenagers as lookouts. Hailey Nichelle Clifton-Carmack, 26, "was suspected of fleeing the state of Missouri" to avoid her arrest for sexual contact with a student, fourth-degree child molestation, second-degree statutory rape and first-degree child endangerment, police in Garden Ridge, Texas, wrote in a social media post announcing her arrest last Friday. The victim's father, Mark Creighton, was charged with child endangerment and jailed on $50,000 bond last Thursday for allegedly knowing about and permitting the relationship between the son and his teacher. Allegedly, he told a witness that he "may as well let it happen" because his son and the teacher were "going to do it behind [his] back anyway," according to his arrest affidavit. Hailey Nichelle Clifton-Carmack, 26, was charged with first-degree endangering the welfare of a child, second-degree statutory rape, sexual contact with a student, and fourth-degree child molestation. A fellow student approached school administration about Clifton-Carmack's illicit relationship on Dec. 7, a probable cause statement obtained by Fox News Digital shows. The witness told police that Clifton-Carmack was regularly "too friendly" with her students, sometimes dressing in "tight or low cut shirts" and "tight leggings." The teacher openly discussed her sex life in class, the student told police, and had previously been admonished by school administration for getting "too close" to students. Fox News Digital was unable to reach the district for comment at press time. The student witness told Pulaski County investigators that the victim, a friend of theirs, showed them photographs of scratch marks on his back. Clifton-Carmack allegedly left the marks "after the confidential victim had sex with her in the confidential witness's driveway." Witnesses told Pulaski County Sheriff's Department detectives that Hailey Clifton-Carmack would use other students at Laquey High School as "lookouts" while she and the 16-year-old victim had sex during school hours. Allegedly, the victim had bragged to the witness that he was the reason Clifton-Carmack's divorce was pushed through, according to the document. Clifton-Carmack's husband filed for divorce on Aug. 23, 2023, Pulaksi County court documents show. The pair have two children.
Georgia teacher fired after allegedly threatening to behead a Muslim student -- Fox News' Madison Scarpino provides details on the charges against former seventh grade teacher Benjamin Reese, who reportedly threatened a Muslim student who voiced concerns over an Israeli flag in the classroom.
Michigan parents sue former school district, allege daughter was transitioned socially without their knowledge -- A Michigan couple is suing their daughter's former school district after they claim to have found out that school officials had secretly transitioned their middle school daughter without their knowledge or consent, according to the lawsuit. Alliance Defending Freedom (ADF) attorneys filed suit against the Rockford Public School District on behalf of Dan and Jennifer Mead in the U.S. District Court for the Western District of Michigan's Southern Division after they discovered district employees began treating the couple’s middle-school daughter as a boy, actively taking steps to conceal these actions from them, they allege in the lawsuit. The Mead's allege employees in the district altered their daughter’s official records to remove references to the district's actions before sending the records home, which was only discovered after an employee unintentionally failed to completely alter a report about their daughter before sharing it with them.Rockford Public Schools Superintendent Dr. Steve Matthews declined to provide comment to Fox News Digital, citing an obligation to continue to protect the privacy of the Mead family and their child. "We will respectfully decline to comment and let the legal process run its course," he told Fox News Digital. The Meads’ daughter started sixth grade at East Rockford Middle School in August 2020, but as the semester progressed, her parents said she began to struggle academically. Before they found out their daughter had socially transitioned, the Meads started working with the school to help figure out how to best help their daughter academically after she had received an autism diagnosis, placing their trust in a school counselor who met with their daughter over the next two years. The counselor freely shared information about those meetings with them, including changes to their daughter’s well-being, the couple says. "Most days she was pretty sad and we were feeling a little bit desperate," Jennifer said. "What can we do to help our daughter? So I was working with the counselor, who was then explaining all of this information to the teacher, sharing information from them, confidential information. So the counselor and I had a relationship and I trusted her." In May 2022, the Meads’ daughter sent a message to the school counselor asking her to email her teachers and tell them to start calling her by a masculine name. Starting then, through the end of the school year a few weeks later, the counselor corresponded multiple times with Jennifer about her daughter, but allegedly failed to mention that their daughter had requested teachers use a masculine name and pronouns. When the Meads’ daughter started eighth grade, they claim district employees began referring to her by the masculine name without the Meads’ knowledge or consent. "This social transition went on for several months before the Meads realized what was happening," ADF Senior Counsel and director of ADF’s Center for Parental Rights Kate Anderson said. "They found out when the counselor went through to change documents, she missed one and so one went home with the male name and male pronouns." Even though the counselor had given regular updates to Jennifer about her daughter, the district deliberately chose not to tell them about this request, they allege. They thought this information was a mistake until they realized the truth and immediately asked district employees to refrain from using the masculine name and male pronouns, which they said employees refused to comply with. When the Meads confronted the school about their actions, Anderson said district officials "just threw up their hands and said it was their policy to do so," which she said is "something we're seeing around the country."
Ohio House votes to overturn governor’s veto of transgender health care ban, athlete restrictions - The Ohio House voted Wednesday to overturn Republican Gov. Mike DeWine’s veto of a bill that bans gender-affirming health care for transgender minors and prevents transgender women and girls from competing on female school sports teams.The lower chamber voted 65-28 to overturn DeWine’s veto of House Bill 68, along party lines.“I think most people here have good intentions. I believe our governor has good intentions. However, good intentions do not save lives or protect women — good policy does,” said Ohio Republican Rep. Gary Click, the bill’s primary sponsor.House Democrats on Wednesday condemned the body’s vote and accused Republicans of ignoring medical evidence in support of gender-affirming care and the testimony of those who spoke out against the bill. “Why? Because your Google search makes your knowledge equal to my 30 plus years in medicine?” said state Rep. Anita Somani, a Democrat and OB-GYN in central Ohio. Before she was elected to the Ohio House in 2022, Somani testified against iterations of House Bill 68, called the Save Adolescents from Experimentation (SAFE) Act, in 2019, 2020 and 2021.“What we’re doing is moving people backwards; we are restricting people’s rights; we are taking away health care,” Somani said Wednesday. “Listening to my colleagues here speak, I’m angry, I’m frustrated and I’m disappointed.”LGBTQ advocates, medical professionals and families of transgender children have largely argued against the passage of House Bill 68. More than 600 people testified against the measure during public hearings last year, according to local media.DeWine vetoed the bill on Dec. 29, telling reporters during a press conference that such a measure, if allowed to become law, would do more harm than good.“Ultimately, I believe this is about protecting human life,” DeWine said. “Many parents have told me that their child would not have survived — would be dead today — if they had not received the treatment they received from one of Ohio’s children’s hospitals.”DeWine on several occasions has declined to say whether he supports House Bill 68’s restrictions on transgender student athletes. In a 2021 statement, DeWine said he believes the issue is “best addressed outside of government.”
Older Americans Say They Feel Trapped in Medicare Advantage Plans -- In 2016, Richard Timmins went to a free informational seminar to learn more about Medicare coverage. “I listened to the insurance agent and, basically, he really promoted Medicare Advantage,” Timmins said. The agent described less expensive and broader coverage offered by the plans, which are funded largely by the government but administered by private insurance companies. For Timmins, who is now 76, it made economic sense then to sign up. And his decision was great, for a while.Then, three years ago, he noticed a lesion on his right earlobe. “It started to grow and started to become rather painful.” Timmins, though, discovered that his enrollment in a Premera Blue Cross Medicare Advantage plan would mean a limited network of doctors and the potential need for preapproval, or prior authorization, from the insurer before getting care. The experience, he said, made getting care more difficult, and now he wants to switch back to traditional, government-administered Medicare. But he can’t. And he’s not alone. “I have very little control over my actual medical care,” he said, adding that he now advises friends not to sign up for the private plans. “I think that people are not understanding what Medicare Advantage is all about.” Enrollment in Medicare Advantage plans has grown substantially in the past few decades, enticing more than half of all eligible people, primarily those 65 or older, with low premium costs and perks like dental and vision insurance. And as the private plans’ share of the Medicare patient pie has ballooned to 30.8 million people, so too have concerns about the insurers’ aggressive sales tactics and misleading coverage claims. Enrollees, like Timmins, who sign on when they are healthy can find themselves trapped as they grow older and sicker. “It’s one of those things that people might like them on the front end because of their low to zero premiums and if they are getting a couple of these extra benefits — the vision, dental, that kind of thing,” said Christine Huberty, a lead benefit specialist supervising attorney for the Greater Wisconsin Agency on Aging Resources.“But it’s when they actually need to use it for these bigger issues,” Huberty said, “that’s when people realize, ‘Oh no, this isn’t going to help me at all.’” Medicare pays private insurers a fixed amount per Medicare Advantage enrollee and in many cases also pays out bonuses, which the insurers can use to provide supplemental benefits. Huberty said those extra benefits work as an incentive to “get people to join the plan” but that the plans then “restrict the access to so many services and coverage for the bigger stuff.” “The problem is that once you get into Medicare Advantage, if you have a couple of chronic conditions and you want to leave Medicare Advantage, even if Medicare Advantage isn’t meeting your needs, you might not have any ability to switch back to traditional Medicare,”
New study reveals widespread diagnostic errors in seriously ill hospitalized adults - A study of seriously ill patients from academic medical centers across the country has found that nearly a quarter had a delayed or missed diagnosis.All the patients had either been transferred to the intensive care unit (ICU) after being admitted or died in the hospital. The researchers concluded that three-quarters of these diagnostic errors contributed to temporary or permanent harm, and that diagnostic errors played a role in about one in 15 of the deaths.The most common errors identified in the study involved delayed rather than missed diagnoses, for example because a specialist was consulted too late or an alternate diagnosis was not considered soon enough, or because of problems ordering the correct test and interpreting the results.Using statistical methods, they estimated that eliminating these problems with assessment and testing would reduce the risk for diagnostic errors by approximately 40%.The study represents the largest assessment of diagnostic errors in which physicians reviewed each medical record. It appears Jan. 8, 2024, in JAMA Internal Medicine.Academic medical centers often see the most challenging cases, and the data can help them increase patient safety by coaching physicians, improving communication between healthcare teams and patients, and developing more accurate diagnostic tools and techniques."Our study is similar to studies from the '90s describing the prevalence and impact of common patient safety events, such as medication errors, studies which catalyzed the patient safety movement," the paper's first author, Andrew Auerbach, MD, MPH, a professor in the UCSF in the Division of Hospital Medicine, said in reference to the groundbreaking 1999 Institute of Medicine report, "To Err is Human." "We hope our work provides a similar call to action to academic medical centers, researchers and policymakers."
Study: Nearly half of bloodstream infection isolates from transplant recipients were multidrug-resistant - A study of patients at a transplant center found a high burden of bloodstream infections (BSIs) caused by multidrug-resistant organisms (MDROs) following organ transplant, researchers reported yesterday in JAC-Antimicrobial Resistance. To describe the epidemiology of BSIs in the year after solid organ transplant (SOT), researchers at Houston Methodist Hospital analyzed data on patients who received kidney, liver, heart, and multi-organ transplants from June 2016 to September 2021. They examined BSIs that occurred within a year of the transplant and classified MDRO phenotypes for Staphylococcus aureus, enterococci, Enterobacterales, Pseudomonas aeruginosa, and Candida spp. They also compared BSI characteristics between SOT types and determined risk factors for 90-day mortality.Of the 2,293 patients (54.6% kidney, 28.9% liver, 9.6% heart, and 7.0% multi-organ transplant) included in the study, 8.5% developed BSIs, which were most common after multi-organ (23.1%) and liver (11.3%) transplants. Among 196 patients with BSI, there were 313 BSI episodes, yielding 323 unique isolates, 45.5% of which were MDROs.Liver transplant recipients harbored the most MDROs (53.4%), followed by multi-organ transplant recipients (49.4%). The most frequent MDROs were vancomycin-resistant enterococci (VRE) (comprising 69.8% of enterococci) and extended-spectrum beta-lactamase–producing and carbapenem-resistant Enterobacterales (CRE) (29.2% and 27.2% of Enterobacterales, respectively). Overall mortality after BSI was 9.7%, but VRE was the only MDRO independently associated with an increase in mortality (adjusted odds ratio, 6.0; 95% confidence interval, 1.7 to 21.3).The study authors say that while the BSI incidence was lower than found in a recent study conducted in Denmark, the substantial proportion of MDROs and the number of patients with more than one BSI episode are concerns."Although BSI incidence was lower than in previous studies, the emergence of MDR phenotypes, especially CRE and VRE infections after liver and multi-organ transplantation, is worrisome," they wrote. "Our results can guide future research on strategies to decrease burden and impact of MDROs after SOT."
There’s a Huge Covid Surge Right Now and Nobody Is Talking About It - Seemingly everyone has come down with at least one bout of illness this winter: sniffles that theoretically pass as “just some bug” if you don’t test for Covid.But there’s a solid chance, with or without a test, that those sniffles were Covid after all. We’re in the midst of the largest global surge in daily Covid infections since Omicron, with nearly 2 million new infections per dayestimated in the US alone. Odds are, you barely noticed.The massive rise in cases is being driven by coronavirus variant JN.1, which emerged in September and quickly became the dominant strain. But hospitalization rates are generally lower than they were this time last year (90 admissions per million people in the US, roughly 65 percent the size of last year’s spike). “It’s really encouraging that we don’t have a big parallel spike of hospitalizations,” says Eric Topol, professor of molecular medicine at the Scripps Research Translational Institute.But infection rates haven’t peaked yet, and we can expect hospitalizations and deaths to rise over the next few weeks. “That’s really troubling for a variant that’s rapidly taking over,” says Mark Cameron, an infectious disease researcher at Case Western Reserve University School of Medicine—and especially worrying during the winter flu season.These numbers are rough estimates. Accurately tracking Covid infections is trickier than ever, which is partly why the current wave has gone under the radar. Testing and tracing infrastructure has been all but dismantled in the US, so researchers have turned to our sewage as a proxy. Wastewater surveillance data is collected locally from regions accounting for roughly 40 percent of the US population. This paints a decent picture of Covid trends, but without the CDC tracking cases and deaths like they used to, it’s hard to tell what’s going on. “Rosier numbers don’t necessarily reflect a better season than last year,” Cameron says.The timing couldn’t have been worse. With RSV and flu already making their seasonal rounds, lots of Covid infections will arrive right on the heels of another virus. On December 14, the CDC posted its first Covid-related health alert in a year, urging health care providers to administer flu, Covid, and RSV vaccines to prevent severe illness that could overburden hospitals. Some health care facilities are bringing back mask requirementsin light of the respiratory triple-whammy. “If you pick up the flu, get RSV two weeks later, and then are unlucky enough to get Covid, your immune system takes a beating,” Cameron says. “Secondary infections with different agents make health outcomes worse and worse.”We’ve been living with these circulating seasonal respiratory viruses for decades, and they’ve only changed slightly. But Covid is still evolving rapidly, and is capable of causing trouble beyond cold and flu season—twice a year, but not yet predictably. Despite getting circumstantially lumped in with other winter viruses, JN.1 is driving major waves in both hemispheres, including southern regions in the middle of summer. “Covid is on its own schedule,” says Cameron.
The US is starting 2024 in its second-largest COVID surge ever, experts say - The United States is in the middle of a wintertime COVID wave, driven by holiday gatherings, people spending more time inside, waning immunity from low uptake of the new COVID vaccine and a new highly infectious COVID variant, JN.1. The U.S. Centers of Disease Control and Prevention released an update on Jan. 5 about the prevalence of JN.1, explaining that the new variant may be "intensifying the spread of COVID-19 this winter." Test positivity and wastewater data show that viral activity in the U.S. is higher than this time last year, with wastewater data especially rising rapidly the past several weeks. (COVID-19 deaths and hospitalizations are still lower than last year, the CDC noted.) A viral social media post based on data from the CDC is calling this surge the second-biggest COVID wave in the history of the U.S. — after the omicron surge from late 2021 to early 2022, which infected more people than even the early days of the pandemic.Lucky Tran, Ph.D., science communicator at Columbia University Irving Medical Center, compiled the CDC data into a graph, which has been shared widely on Instagram and X, formerly known as Twitter.Tran also said in his post that projections show as many as 1 in 3 people in the U.S. could be infected with COVID during the peak months of the current wave and up to 2 million people could be infected in a single day — data he attributed to Michael Hoerger, Ph.D., assistant professor at Tulane University School of Medicine who leads the Pandemic Mitigation Collaborative's data tracker.Tran tells TODAY.com he was motivated to share the data on the current levels of virus circulating because "many people underestimate just how much virus is around," and that research shows once people are aware of the real levels, "they (are) more willing to wear a mask, social distance when required, to stay home and get vaccinated and take all of those measures. That's why it's so important to do this."A CDC chart of national and regional COVID trends in wastewater shows the national viral activity rate of 12.85 from the week ending Dec. 30, 2023 (the most recent data available) is higher than anything seen since January 2022, as far back as the publicly available CDC data goes. The national rate for the week ending Jan. 15, 2022, was 22.78. CDC spokesperson Tom Skinner tells TODAY.com via email that "COVID 19 in wastewater is currently (at) very high levels across the country." "Last year, the peak of infections occurred in late December, early January. We are seeing early evidence of the same timing this year, but we will continue to monitor closely," Skinner continues."These levels are much lower than the Omicron wave in early 2022," he says, adding that JN.1 is the most frequently detected variant in wastewater. Skinner did not specify if the current COVID wave is the country's second-largest.The CDC noted in its Jan. 5 statement that wastewater and test positivity data are both higher than the year before by about 27% and 17% respectively. It added that wastewater levels "are currently high and increasing in all regions."Hoerger tells TODAY.com that based on the wastewater data collected from Biobot Analytics (which used to provide the CDC its wastewater data), the U.S. is in its second-largest COVID surge. He says his own predictive model indicates cases will continue to rise until mid-February. He estimates that mid-December 2023 to mid-February 2024 will be the peak of the current wave and that 1 in 3 Americans will be infected with COVID during this timeframe. He says his data also show that on the highest day of the current wave, there will be 2 million new COVID cases, which would lend to many more infections than last winter, which had its highest day of about 1.7 million new infections. While CDC data suggest viral activity levels have been similar the last two Decembers, Hoerger explains that the acceleration in COVID activity in 2023 was faster than in 2022, suggesting there will be a higher peak this season.
In 2024, why are we still playing make-believe about COVID? - Eric Topol - The pandemic is far from over, as evidenced by the rapid rise to global dominance of the JN.1 variant of SARS-CoV-2. This variant is a derivative of BA.2.86, the only other strain that has carried more than 30 new mutations in the spike protein since Omicron first came on the scene more than two years ago. This should have warranted designation by the World Health Organization as a variant of concern with a Greek letter, such as Pi. By wastewater levels, JN.1 is now associated with the second-biggest wave of infections in the United States in the pandemic, after Omicron. We have lost the ability to track the actual number of infections since most people either test at home or don’t even test at all, but the very high wastewater levels of the virus indicate about 2 million Americans are getting infected each day. In several countries in Europe, wastewater levels reached unprecedented levels, exceeding Omicron. Clearly this virus variant, with its plethora of new mutations, has continued its evolution with mutations adapted for infecting or reinfecting us. There is, however, some good news about this big wave of infections. It has notresulted in the surge of hospital admissions seen with Omicron. The “updated” booster (based on the XBB.1.5 variant that rose to dominance in the U.S. in February), available here since September, has some cross-reactivity with JN.1 in lab studies for inducing neutralizing antibodies to the virus, and a recent Kaiser Permanente report showed the booster provided protection from hospitalization in the range of about 60% against JN.1 and other recently circulating variants.With the marked differences in the spike protein between XBB.1.5 and JN.1, we are very lucky to see this level of vaccine-induced immune response. Nevertheless, only 19% of eligible Americans have gotten the updated booster. The Kaiser study also showed low levels of protection against hospitalization and emergency room visits for people who had received only prior versions of the vaccine, without the updated booster. That aligns with even more striking differences in the virus sequence of early strains compared with JN.1, and the problem we have with waning immunity four to six months after vaccination.All of this is occurring on top of the flu and RSV waves, both of which are at very high levels, not clearly having peaked yet, with some people experiencing two of these infections at once.With all three respiratory viruses circulating at full force, you would think we’d be seeing people wearing masks everywhere in public. That couldn’t be further from the truth. The state of denialism and general refusal to take simple steps to reduce the risk of infection can be seen everywhere.It has taken healthcare systems many weeks after JN.1 showed up in October to recognize the threat. Only very recently have some reinstated mask mandates for healthcare workers and patients. Little has been done across the country to improve indoor air quality, upgrading filtration and ventilation.Now in its fifth year, SARS-CoV-2 has once again proved to be highly resilient, capable of reinventing itself to infect us. Yet we continue to make-believe that the pandemic is over, that infections have been transformed to common cold status by prior exposure(s), and that life has returned to normal. Sadly, none of this is true.The massive number of infections in the current wave will undoubtedly lead to more people suffering from long COVID. For a high proportion of people, especially those of advanced age, immunocompromised or with coexisting conditions, getting COVID is nothing close to a straightforward respiratory infection.What is the exit strategy that could get us to “return to normal”? It certainly can’t happen with the current complacency and false belief that the virus will burn out and go away. Inevitably, there will be another strain in the future that we are not at all prepared for and will lead to yet another very big wave across the planet.
New, highly mutated COVID variants ‘Pirola’ BA.2.86 and JN.1 may cause more severe disease, new studies suggest --Highly mutated COVID variant BA.2.86—close ancestor of globally dominant “Pirola” JN.1—may lead to more severe disease than other Omicron variants, according to two new studies published Monday in the journal Cell.In one study, researchers from Ohio State University performed a variety of experiments using a BA.2.86 pseudovirus—a lab-created version that isn’t infectious. They found that BA.2.86 can fuse to human cells more efficiently and infect cells that line the lower lung—traits that may make it more similar to initial, pre-Omicron strains that were more deadly.In the other study, researchers in Germany and France came to the same conclusion. “BA.2.86 has regained a trait characteristic of early SARS-CoV-2 lineages: robust lung cell entry,” the authors wrote. The variant “might constitute an elevated health threat as compared to previous Omicron sublineages,” they added.While illness caused by the initial Omicron strain was typically considered more mild than that caused by earlier variants, it’s impossible to say definitively, experts say. That’s because those sickened by Omicron had generally already been infected with an earlier version of the virus, likely softening the blow. Additionally, many had been vaccinated, to the same effect.Still, Omicron had a penchant for infecting the upper airway versus the lower airway, where prior versions of the virus tended to accumulate, causing more severe disease. The new studies offer proof that this trend may very well be reversing, the authors contend. If true, it’s bad news for those who hoped the virus was slowly attenuating to the equivalent of a common cold.“We cannot ignore the evidence” that Omicron may be evolving into a more severe form of itself, Dr. Shan-Lu Liu—professor and co-director of the Viruses and Emerging Pathogens Program at Ohio State University, and lead author on the first study—told Fortune.Increasing COVID hospitalizations in the U.S. and around the globe potentially bolster the argument, he added.It’s tough to tell if disease caused by COVID is again becoming more severe because waning immunity muddles matters, experts say. Antibody immunity to COVID from vaccination or prior infection—which can reduce the severity of the disease or prevent infection altogether—declines after three to six months. Globally, uptake of the latest COVID booster, released this past fall, leaves much to be desired. In the U.S., it sits under 20%, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. In theory, the longer it’s been since someone was infected with COVID or received a booster, the greater their risk for severe outcomes like hospitalization and death.As for what the studies might mean regarding the severity of JN.1 infection, the jury is still out. But the new findings—combined with expert speculation that JN.1 may be showing a preference for infecting the GI tract—warrant more study into the evolving nature of the virus, according to Liu.Another concern of his: the possibility of COVID recombining with another coronavirus in animals, then transitioning back over to humans—throwing another viral plot twist into the pandemic’s narrative.Some experts contend that Omicron—highly mutated compared to previous strains—originated in animals, then spilled back over into humans (as opposed to developing in a human with a long-term infection, as others contend). Regardless, animals serve as an underappreciated wild card, Liu contends. Case in point: Many of Ohio’s white-tailed deer have tested positive for COVID, affording the virus an additional population in which to mutate. Another, perhaps larger concern of Liu: the possibility that COVID recombines with another, more deadly coronavirus like SARS or MERS, which had case fatality rates around 10% and 34%, respectively. In contrast, COVID’s case fatality rate, among unvaccinated Americans, sat around 1% prior to Omicron, and around 0.11% after. “Anything can happen,” Liu said. “It’s really hard to predict what’s going to come next, but nature can do amazing things.” The bottom line when it comes to the power of animals to further evolve the virus and send another curveball flying humanity’s way: “Humans, watch out.”
New COVID-19 Variant JN.1 Deepens its Hold on the U.S. The new COVID-19 variant JN.1 was responsible for the majority of new coronavirus infections in the U.S. in the past two weeks, according to estimates from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.JN.1, which is an omicron subvariant, is the fastest growing strain in the U.S. It jumped from about 3% of COVID-19 cases in November to nearly 62% in recent weeks, the CDC estimates.The agency says it is monitoring JN.1, which is a close relative to BA.2.86, or “pirola.” It assesses that “at this time, there is no evidence that JN.1 presents an increased risk to public health relative to other currently circulating variants.”Still, COVID-19 activity is elevated and increasing in many areas. New COVID-19 hospitalizations are reaching numbers not seen since last winter.Nearly 34,800 new COVID-19 hospital admissions were recorded last week, according to CDC data.“Emergency department visits for COVID-19 are highest among infants and older adults but are also elevated for young children,” the CDC said in anupdate published Friday.Wastewater surveillance data shows that COVID-19 viral levels in the U.S. are “very high.” “Despite the high levels of infection measured using wastewater viral activity and test positivity data, at this time, COVID-19 infections are causing severe disease less frequently than earlier in the pandemic,” the CDC said in its update.Still, COVID-19 deaths are increasing, reaching more than 1,600 the week ending Dec. 9, according to provisional death data. Public health experts are encouraging Americans to get the latest COVID-19 shot to prevent severe disease. Uptake, however, has been low.
These Are the Top COVID Hot Spots in the U.S. - COVID-19 hospitalizations in the U.S. again rose week over week as the JN.1 coronavirus variant has taken a deeper hold in the U.S.The U.S. tallied nearly 35,000 new hospitalizations of people with COVID-19 over the seven days ending Dec. 30, according to the latest provisional figuresfrom the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. That’s about 5,900 more than the total for the previous week and a rise of about 20%. The uptick marks the eighth weekly increase in a row, and the total amounts to the highest weekly number of hospitalizations since more than 37,500 were tallied for the week ending Jan. 14, 2023. For comparison, the lowest weekly count was around 6,300 during the week ending June 24, according to the CDC.The higher total comes as the omicron subvariant JN.1 jumped from accounting for less than 10% of COVID-19 cases in November to nearly 62% in recent weeks, according to CDC estimates.Relative to population, data points to 10.5 new COVID-19 hospital admissions per 100,000 people for the week ending Dec. 30, a rate characterized by the CDC as a “medium” level. A slim majority of states (26) were given that same classification, while the remaining were said to have a “low” level of new COVID-19 hospitalizations.These are the states with the highest rates of new COVID-19 hospital admissions:
- West Virginia (19.14 per 100,000)
- New York (15.93)
- Massachusetts (15.9)
- Ohio (15.19)
- South Dakota (14.92)
- New Jersey (14.84)
- Indiana (13.9)
- Pennsylvania (13.58)
- Connecticut (13.35)
- Michigan (13.24)
Compared with the week prior, Georgia had the highest percentage increase among states in its rate of new COVID-19 hospitalizations, at 73.4%.Nebraska saw the largest decrease at minus 10.3%, though its rate of 11.68 per 100,000 remained above the national average.Among U.S. counties – inclusive of areas like the District of Columbia, Guam and municipios in Puerto Rico – 306 were described by the CDC as having a “high” level of new COVID-19 hospital admissions in the week ending Dec. 30, with rates of 20 per 100,000 or higher. Eight counties in Nebraska were reported to have the highest rates, at 64.1 per 100,000 people – more than three times the CDC’s “high” threshold baseline. Another 1,196 counties were said to have a “medium” level of COVID-19 hospital admissions, with rates between 10.0 and 19.9 per 100,000 people.Notably, the CDC’s county hospital admission figures are calculated at the Health Service Area level, which can span multiple counties. This means counties within the same HSA will share the same admission rates in the data. Areas also may be listed as having insufficient data. The counties with the highest rates of new COVID-19 hospital admissions are:
- Blaine County, Nebraska (64.1 per 100,000)
- Custer County, Nebraska (64.1)
- Garfield County, Nebraska (64.1)
- Logan County, Nebraska (64.1)
- Loup County, Nebraska (64.1)
- Thomas County, Nebraska (64.1)
- Valley County, Nebraska (64.1)
- Wheeler County, Nebraska (64.1)
- Chickasaw County, Iowa (47.1)
- Floyd County, Iowa (47.1)
- Jewell County, Kansas (40.7)
- Mitchell County, Kansas (40.7)
- Osborne County, Kansas (40.7)
Because hospitalization rates are calculated per 100,000 people, it’s worth noting that even a small number of hospitalizations can lead to a relatively high hospitalization rate for small communities. Yet the CDC also says its most recent COVID-19 hospitalization figures may be underestimated, as the data may have been impacted by the holidays and reporting delays.
The AARP Just Told Its 38 Million Members To Get An 8th (Yes, Eighth!!) Shot Of mRNA - The lobbying group for older Americans just told its nearly 38 million members to “hustle” for another Covid jab, even if they have already had five boosters. See for yourself. The following question-and-answer column ran in the organization’s December “AARP Bulletin”: AARP is open to anyone 50 or older. The column does not specify a narrower or higher age range for its recommendation. Thus it implies that even a 50-year-old who has not already had six “Covid boosters” needs to “catch up” with another immediately. Keep in mind that someone who has had “five Covid boosters” has actually received seven mRNA jabs - the initial two-shot primary vaccination regimen, followed by five boosters. Thus AARP is suggesting its members should be taking their eighth jab of mRNA in the last three years. Yet scientists have essentially no safety data beyond a third shot, much less a fourth or more, and thus no way of knowing if the risks of repeated mRNA dosing rise with each shot. AARP’s unbelievably bad advice doesn’t end there. The column then goes on to tell members that “the most recent shot, which was released in September 2023, isn’t actually a booster. It’s a new vaccine that targets the latest variants.” A what-now? A new vaccine? Wow. Guess it must have gone through the randomized trials that are required in the United States for any new drug or vaccine. No? Let’s just call it a new vaccine anyway, since our elderly readers have gotten kinda suspicious of the failure of the Covid shots they’ve already taken. But the article ends on a happy note: Researchers are even working on a combined COVID-flu vaccine, so a few years from now, a single shot from your doctor or pharmacy may be all you need to protect yourself fully...
Amid second-largest wave of COVID infections in the US, Florida’s surgeon general calls to halt mRNA vaccines - On Friday, wastewater data from Biobot Analytics and the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) affirmed that the US has now reached its second-highest level of COVID-19 infections of the pandemic. It is anticipated that by midweek, rates of infections will reach 2 million per day with approximately one in 24 people infectious in the population, and up to 100 million Americans could be infected over the entire course of the wave. Hospitalizations have been climbing fast since the beginning of November, up more than twofold at close to 35,000 COVID admissions for the week ending December 30, 2023, and approaching the highs seen last winter. Deaths have also been trending upwards, having reached over 1,600 for the week ending December 9. Given the current rates of hospitalizations and the dominance of the JN.1 variant, which the CDC estimated Friday now accounts for 61.6 percent of all sequenced cases, one can assume fatalities will continue their upward trajectory through December and into January. Dr. David Christopher, an Ohio emergency room doctor, recently warned on his social media, “It’s a total plague ward sh*tshow in most Emergency Departments right now. Don’t believe me? Then ask anyone you know who works in one. If they’re being honest, willing to talk and aren’t too exhausted you’ll likely hear some horror stories. It hasn’t been this bad since December 2021.” The same crisis conditions are happening throughout the Northern Hemisphere, including in Canada. Ontario-based senior scientist and epidemiologist Dr. Diego Bassani wrote, “Third highest number of daily hospital admissions in Ontario since the pandemic started was reached on January 1, 2024, and school has not even resumed yet. Another very normal new year.” Mask mandates have once again been implemented at a number of hospital chains in the US and other countries, as COVID-19 and other respiratory pathogens are overwhelming health systems globally. Amid the rapidly rising tide of COVID infections and hospitalizations in the US, Florida’s reactionary anti-vaccine surgeon general, Harvard-trained Dr. Joseph Ladapo, has issued a call to halt the use of anti-COVID-19 mRNA vaccines across his state. As a public health initiative, especially with the growing height of the current surge, this maneuver is criminally dangerous and politically motivated to garner the attention and approval of the fascistic right in the upcoming Iowa caucuses, where Governor Ron DeSantis trails former President Donald Trump. Ladapo’s call to stop vaccinations is akin to advocating the abandonment of safety belts while driving in dense traffic at high velocities.
SARS-CoV-2 BA.2.86 shows increased lung targeting despite vaccine effectiveness --New research shows that the recently emerged BA.2.86 omicron subvariant of the virus that causes COVID-19 can be neutralized by bivalent mRNA vaccine-induced antibodies in the blood, which explains why this variant did not cause a widespread surge as previously feared. However, the study in cell cultures showed this SARS-CoV-2 variant can infect human cells that line the lower lung and engage in virus-host cell membrane fusion more efficiently, two features linked to severe disease symptoms. The study is published today (Jan. 8, 2024) in the journal Cell. The BA.2.86 variant of omicron is the ancestor of the currently dominating JN.1 and has about 60 more spike protein mutations than the original, or parent, coronavirus, including over 30 more than its close omicron relatives – the early BA.2 variant and the recently dominant XBB.1.5 variant among them. These mutations led scientists to worry that so many changes would make the variant as tough to contain as the initial omicron outbreak in 2021-22. "But BA.2.86 appears to have increased infectivity of human lung epithelial cells compared to all omicron variants, so that's a little worrisome. And, consistent with infectivity, it also has increased fusion activity with human lung epithelial cells," said Liu, also a professor in the Department of Microbial Infection and Immunity. "That raises a potential concern about whether or not this virus is more pathogenic compared to recent omicron variants." The published findings coincide with reports from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention that after a brief increase in BA.2.86 infections, its derived sublineage JN.1 rapidly gained ground in the United States, responsible for an estimated 44% of COVID-19 cases as of Dec. 23, 2023. First detected in July in Europe and the Middle East, BA.2.86 and its sublineages have since been spreading with increasing frequency in different parts of the world. On Nov. 22, the World Health Organization classified BA.2.86 and sublineages as "variants of interest." The Ohio State researchers analyzed neutralizing antibodies in blood serum samples from health care professionals who had received three monovalent vaccine doses or two monovalent vaccines followed by one bivalent vaccine booster, and from first responders who had COVID-19 infections during the wave dominated by the XBB.1.5 variant. They compared the ability of neutralizing antibodies to block infection by BA.2.86, an XBB-derived variant known as FLip, the parent virus and several omicron variants. Overall, antibodies produced by serum from the bivalent vaccine-dosed health care professionals were more efficient at neutralizing BA.2.86 than they were at neutralizing other omicron variants, including XBB.1.5. In contrast, the three monovalent vaccines and previous XBB.1.5 infection were barely effective in blocking infection by BA.2.86. "People who have had a COVID-19 infection should remember that omicron variants are less virulent compared to prior variants such as delta, meaning they don't make most people very sick," Liu said. "If you have less severe disease, the antibodies generated by infection are low – almost 10-fold lower than vaccine-induced antibodies. That is why you cannot rely on natural infection alone for immunity.
Immune evasion, infectivity, and fusogenicity of SARS-CoV-2 BA.2.86 and FLip variants - - Summary: Evolution of SARS-CoV-2 requires the reassessment of current vaccine measures. Here, we characterized BA.2.86 and XBB-derived variant FLip by investigating their neutralization alongside D614G, BA.1, BA.2, BA.4/5, XBB.1.5, and EG.5.1 by sera from 3-dose-vaccinated and bivalent-vaccinated healthcare workers, XBB.1.5-wave-infected first responders, and monoclonal antibody (mAb) S309. We assessed the biology of the variant spikes by measuring viral infectivity and membrane fusogenicity. BA.2.86 is less immune evasive compared to FLip and other XBB variants, consistent with antigenic distances. Importantly, distinct from XBB variants, mAb S309 was unable to neutralize BA.2.86, likely due to a D339H mutation based on modeling. BA.2.86 had relatively high fusogenicity and infectivity in CaLu-3 cells but low fusion and infectivity in 293T-ACE2 cells compared to some XBB variants, suggesting a potentially different conformational stability of BA.2.86 spike. Overall, our study underscores the importance of SARS-CoV-2 variant surveillance and the need for updated COVID-19 vaccines.
Mutations in spike protein of SARS-CoV-2 pirola variant found to augment infection of lung cells - Despite the end of the pandemic, COVID-19 continues to pose a serious health threat. Most individuals have established robust immune protection and do not develop severe disease but the infection can still lead to marked and sometimes long-lasting disease symptoms.In the late summer of 2023 a new SARS-CoV-2 variant emerged, BA.2.86 (pirola), which, based on genetics, differs markedly from all previously circulating variants. A team of researchers from the German Primate Center (DPZ, Göttingen), jointly with partners at Charité (Berlin), Hannover Medical School, Helmholtz Center for Infection Research (Braunschweig) and Friedrich-Alexander-University Erlangen-Nuremberg has now investigated the biological properties of the new variant.The researchers discovered that the pirola variant, in contrast the all previously circulating omicron variants, enters lung cells with high efficiency and uses the cellular enzyme TMPRss2 for entry, thereby exhibiting surprising parallels to variants alpha, beta, gamma and delta that circulated during the first years of the pandemic. The improved entry into lung cells might indicate that the virus is more aggressive but production of new, infectious viral particles in infected cells was reduced, which may limit spread and pathogenic potential.The researchers report in the journal Cell that the pirola variant is resistant against alltherapeutic antibodies and efficiently evades antibody responses in vaccinated individuals with and without breakthrough infection. However, the virus was appreciably inhibited by antibodies elicited by the new, XBB.1.5-adpated mRNA vaccine.In summary, the results show that four years after the start of the pandemic the virus is still capable of profound changes and can reacquire properties that may promote the development of severe disease.The spread of SARS-CoV-2 is associated with the constant emergence of new viral variants. These variants have acquired mutations in the spike protein, which allow evasion of neutralizing antibodies in vaccinated and convalescent individuals. The emergence of viral variants started with the alpha variant followed by the beta, gamma and delta variants. The pirola variant, analogous to the omicron variant, likely arose in immunocompromised patients and presents a quantum leap in SARS-CoV-2 evolution. The spike protein of the pirola variant harbors more than 30 mutations relative to its precursor variant, BA.2, and it is largely unknown how these mutations affect the biological properties of the virus. A team of researchers from the German Primate Center (DPZ) led by Markus Hoffmann and Stefan Pöhlmann addressed this question jointly with the research groups of Christian Drosten (Charité, Berlin), Georg Behrens (Hannover Medical School), Luka Cicin-Sain (Helmholtz Center for Infection Research, Braunschweig) and Hans-Martin Jäck (Friedrich-Alexander-University Erlangen Nuremberg).The researchers discovered that the pirola variant, in contrast to all previously circulating omicron subvariants, enters lung cells with high efficiency and in a TMPRSS2-dependent manner. Further, they could demonstrate that mutations S50L and K356T in the spike protein of the pirola variant are important for the highly efficient lung cell entry. "It is noteworthy that two years after the global dominance of the omicron variant, which fails to robustly enter lung cells, now a quite different virus is spreading and that this virus is able to again enter lung cells with high efficiency. If the augmented lung cell entry translates into more severe disease upon infection with the pirola variant remains to be investigated in animal models," says Pöhlmann, head of the Infection Biology Unity of the German Primate Center.
COVID is surging again. Here’s what to know and why experts encourage caution | PBS News Weekend (interview & transcript) The U.S. is experiencing another uptick in COVID infections after the holidays, with hospitalizations rising for the eighth week in a row. A new dominant variant, JN.1, has quickly spread to account for more than 60 percent of cases. John Yang speaks with epidemiologist Jessica Malaty Rivera to learn more about the surge and what it tells us about how we deal with COVID moving forward.
- John Yang:The United States is experiencing what's become a familiar pattern: an uptick in COVID after the holidays and the big gatherings that accompany them. Hospitalizations have risen eight weeks in a row, though they're below what they were in the last post-holiday period a year ago.Hotspots have cropped up across the country as the new dominant variant JN.1 has quickly spread to account for more than 60 percent of cases. Jessica Malaty Rivera is an infectious disease epidemiologist at de Beaumont Foundation, which is a philanthropy that promotes public health.Jessica, has this surge right now in any way a surprise? Or is there anything that's unusual about it?
- Jessica Malaty Rivera, Infectious Disease Epidemiologist, De Beaumont Foundation:To be honest, it's not quite unusual, the virus that causes COVID-19, SARS-CoV-2 continues to evolve as more and more people become infected, and the virus makes copies of itself. It mutates, it changes, it gets better at evading our immune systems and making people sick.What's encouraging is that because of our hybrid immunity in the population between previous infections and vaccination, not as many people are becoming seriously ill and dying, though we are seeing hospitalizations continue to increase as more and more people become infected.The fact that it's back, the fact that we're seeing a surge, though, is not a surprise. In fact, it doesn't quite actually have the same seasonality as other viruses like flu or RSV, where we kind of see COVID come every few months in these big surges.
New fast-spreading Covid variant may be more deadly than earlier versions, 'worrisome' study warns A new Covid variant that is behind a resurgence in hospital admissions may be more deadly than previously thought, research suggests.BA.2.86 — or 'Pirola' — is a mutation on the Omicron BA.2 subvariant and is theancestor of the currently dominant JN.1, which is responsible for more than three in five Covid cases as of January 6.Both strains have around 60 more spike protein mutations than the originalcoronavirus and over 30 more than other Omicron variants such as BA.2 and XBB.1.5.A new study by The Ohio State University found that BA.2.86 can infect cells in the lower lung and can enter cell membranes more efficiently than other versions of Omicron.Dr Shan-Lu Liu, senior author of the study and professor of virology professor at The Ohio State University, said the findings were 'worrisome.''The concern is whether or not this variant, as well as its descendants, including JN.1, will have an increased tendency to infect human lung epithelial cells similar to the parental virus that launched the pandemic in 2020,' he said. In lab tests, the researchers found that BA.2.86 was more efficient at infecting humans in the lower lung. Upper respiratory infections impact the throat and sinuses, including colds and sore throats. Lower respiratory infections, however, typically last longer and are more intense as they affect the airways and lungs. They include bronchitis and pneumonia, with symptoms including chronic coughing and difficulty breathing. The researchers wrote: 'BA.2.86 may have an increased tendency of using the plasma membrane route of entry as opposed to the endosomal route of entry.' This means BA.2.86 enters cells in a more efficient way by directly penetrating the cell's membrane rather than attaching to the cell's surface and gathering receptors. The experiments were conducted using pseudoviruses – a non-infectious part of a virus surrounded by different Covid spike proteins on the surface structured to match known variants. 'We need to confirm these findings using the real virus,' said Dr Liu. 'But from our past experience, we know that the infectivity in human epithelial cell lines provides very important information.' He added: 'That raises a potential concern about whether or not this virus is more pathogenic compared to recent omicron variants.' While lab tests have indicated that BA.2.86 is more severe, this has not been reflected in official data.
CDC weighs in on JN.1 and intensifying COVID activity - In an update on the JN.1 variant late last week, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) said the variant—steadily expanding its dominance—may be intensifying the spread of COVID-19 this winter. In the January 5 update, the CDC said COVID activity is high, but infections are causing less severe disease than earlier in the pandemic. The variant, part of the BA.2.86 lineage, accounts for about 62% of variants, up from 44% 2 weeks ago. Also, the CDC said it is seeing an increase in JN.1 prevalence in international travelers and in wastewater in all US regions. JN.1 is dominant in Europe and is rising sharply in Asia.Though test positivity and wastewater levels are moderately higher than last year at this time, emergency department visits are trending a bit lower over the same period.The uncoupling of infection levels and illness severity is related to greater immune protection from previous disease, vaccination, or both, the CDC said, adding that more than 97% of people have antibodies against SARS-CoV-2. "This immune protection can fade over time but tends to last longer for preventing severe disease than for preventing infections," the agency said.Long COVID remains an important health threat, and the CDC warned that not enough Americans have received the updated vaccine, with uptake at bout 8% in children and 19% in adults. For seniors, 38% have gotten the latest vaccine, "which is concerning given that they are at higher risk of hospitalization from COVID-19."
Everyone seems to be getting COVID -With COVID-19 cases on the rise once again, everyone seems to either be getting infected or know someone who is. Without the robust data tracking that was available during the public health emergency, a clear picture is harder to discern, but some trends can still be observed. Hospital admissions jumped by 20 percent in the most recent week, having been on the rise since the start of November. That trend is reflected across the country, apart from the Western U.S., with roughly 10 percent of U.S. counties now considered to have high hospital admission rates. Available wastewater surveillance data also indicates that most sites — 74 percent — are reporting higher levels of virus levels, with 44 percent reporting the highest levels they’ve ever recorded. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) notes, however, that different wastewater sampling sites began collecting at different times, meaning these indicators are relative and should be coupled with other data. “We have wastewater data and we have hospitalization data, and then we have just lots of anecdotes,” said William Schaffner, professor in the division of infectious diseases at the Vanderbilt University School of Medicine. “And my colleagues across the country, as I speak with them on conference calls, are all experiencing pretty much the same thing.” According to Schaffner, the cause of the increasing cases can be attributed to the winter weather and associated travel and gatherings. The current respiratory viral season “certainly wasn’t helped” by lax viral mitigation practices either. “There is less social distancing; people are out and about. They want to return to normal, and vaccine fatigue and COVID fatigue are almost palpable out there,” Schaffner said. He also notes that the current dominant strain in the U.S. is likely pushing cases even higher. “We have a dominant Omicron variant out there now — the JN.1 variant — which is extraordinarily contagious. All these Omicron variants are contagious, but this one is outrunning the rest,” Schaffner said. “It’s spreading very widely and causing a great deal of so-called mild infection that is not serious enough to get you hospitalized, but nonetheless you can be miserable for three or four days.” The most recent estimates from the CDC indicate that the omicron JN.1 subvariant is causing 61.6 percent of COVID-19 cases in the U.S. The updated COVID-19 vaccines are believed to still be effective against this strain, despite the mutations it carries — but vaccines don’t have any effect if they stay on shelves instead of being administered to people. A recent report from the CDC estimates that only 21.4 percent of adults have received the updated COVID-19 shot. As Schaffner notes, a widely circulating virus largely impacts vulnerable and older people, which are the types of patients he and his colleagues are mostly seeing admitted to the hospital. Based on the degree of COVID-19 hospital admissions, the CDC categorizes individual counties into low, medium and high rates. Roughly 10 percent of U.S. counties are considered to have high hospital admission rates, according to the latest federal data, and 37.2 percent are considered to have medium admission levels. The CDC stopped publishing national case data after the end of the public health emergency last year, but hospital admission data for coronavirus is still regularly updated. This trending data now serves as the community indicator for what recommended steps people should take to protect their health. When counties are experiencing medium or high levels of hospital admissions, the CDC advises that people at a high risk of experiencing severe illness should mask when in indoor public spaces. People who socialize with immunocompromised people should consider masking or testing themselves before meeting up with them. Unlike previous years, however, health care stakeholders say health systems haven’t been overwhelmed by the current rate of hospitalizations. And despite the rise in cases, Schaffner said he wouldn’t say the U.S. is currently experiencing a surge. “I’m reluctant to call it a surge, because we have used that term last season and the season before when we really had very large increases that stressed hospital systems severely,” he said. “We’re having a substantial seasonal increase. I don’t think we’ve reached the levels that we had last year.” Most health experts say they expect the current state of elevated viral activity will continue through January, including World Health Organization technical lead for COVID Maria Van Kerkhove, who said this week that she expects “trends to continue into January through the winter months in the Northern Hemisphere.”
Everyone you know coming down with Covid again? US is recording 2 million infections per DAY - second-highest figure of entire pandemic - If it has felt like everyone around you is coming down with Covid again — there is good reason. Experts estimate that about two million people are now being infected with Covid every day — the second largest figure since the pandemic began. Because Americans are no longer routinely testing, the estimate has been made using tests that look for pieces of Covid in America's sewage. Yet despite the near-record levels of infections, deaths from the virus are at historic lows for this time of year — thanks to the high levels of immunity in the population. It is not just Covid that is striking down Americans. Flu and RSV are also at unseasonably high levels, surveillance shows. Wastewater surveillance data from biotech company Biobot — which monitors sewage for the CDC — showed 1,398 copies of the virus were detected per milliliter (ml) of sewage nationwide in the week to January 6, the latest available. This marked a 30 percent surge compared to two weeks ago and the highest level recorded in two years — or since the Omicron wave in the 2021 to 2022 season. The previous peak was 4,555 copies of the virus per ml recorded at this time in 2022 — during the Omicron wave. Data from Biobot is based on sewage from 400 locations across the US. Dr Lucky Tran, a scientist at Columbia University in New York City, said the current data was equivalent to 2million people being infected with Covid every day. This was based on data from Dr Mike Hoerger, a cancer expert who researches Covid at Tulane University in Louisiana. He says that 1,374 copies of the virus per ml of wastewater is equivalent to an estimated 2million infections occuring every day. Experts said the surge in infections is down to the JN.1 variant which is more infectious and may even be more deadly than previous strains. That same study also showed the vaccine was still highly effective against it, which could explain the massive disparity between infections and death numbers. Dr Tran said: 'According to the latest CDC Covid wastewater data, we are currently in the second-biggest surge of the pandemic. 'It will peak in the next week, with two million infections per day.
COVID tests may be taking longer to show positive. Here's why - With COVID-19 rising this winter, it’s getting more complicated to discern whether you are infected.Dr. Elizabeth Hudson, regional chief of infectious diseases at Kaiser Permanente Southern California, said she has noticed it’s sometimes taking longer after the onset of symptoms for rapid tests to return a positive result.It used to be that someone might test positive for the coronavirus one or two days after the onset of symptoms using a rapid test, Hudson said. Now, positive results might not show up until the fourth day after symptoms start. The delay in accurate test results is probably a result of people having accumulated immunity from COVID-19 over the years, whether from vaccinations or previous infections, Hudson said.“It’s actually pushing back the time that people’s COVID tests are coming up positive. So some people are testing at Day 1 and Day 2 and saying, ‘Oh, it’s negative, I don’t have COVID,’” Hudson said. “If they probably tested themselves a couple of days later, there’s a pretty good chance that it actually would turn out to be COVID.”People who initially test negative for COVID-19 despite having symptoms and don’t retest later “could be getting a false sense of security” that they don’t have the illness when they actually do and are contagious, Hudson said.Test immediately if you have symptoms of COVID-19, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention says. If you take an at-home rapid test, also referred to as an antigen test, a positive result is usually reliable.But a negative test does not always mean you don’t have COVID-19.It can take a few days for virus levels to reproduce in quantities high enough to be detected by a rapid test.If you test negative and have COVID symptoms, the CDC suggests taking a second test 48 hours later. In the meantime, because you are ill, officials say you shouldstay home and away from other people or mask up if you need to be around others.Another option is heading to your medical provider to take a PCR test, which generally means going into a medical facility and having your test processed by a lab. “That test is much more sensitive. And that [positive test result] would come up sooner,” Hudson said.But most people rely on taking at-home tests. And if that second at-home test is negative, experts recommend taking another one four days after the onset of symptoms.“They should really, probably on Day 4, retest themselves if they’re doing the home antigen test,” Hudson said.Generally, at-home rapid COVID-19 tests detect a coronavirus infection at least 80% of the time, according to the Food and Drug Administration.By contrast, a lab-based PCR test generally detects the virus 95% of the time. But PCR tests can take a day or longer to process, while rapid test results are available within 15 minutes.
Sickle-cell patients at increased risk for severe COVID but have low vaccine uptake -- New research from the University of Michigan shows that patients with sickle-cell disease completed the initial COVID-19 vaccination series at just over half the rate of others, despite the former group being more at risk for severe outcomes with COVID-19.The study, published this week in JAMA Network Open, is based on vaccine data recorded by the Michigan Sickle Cell Data Collection Program (MiSCDC). A total of 3,424 people in Michigan over age 5 with sickle-cell disease were compared to 9.4 million Michiganders over age 5 without the disease.By August 2022, only 33.5% of Michiganders with sickle-cell disease had gotten the primary series of COVID-19 vaccines, compared with 61% of the Michiganders without the disease. Seventeen percent of children ages 5 to 11 with sickle-cell disease had been vaccinated, compared with 25% of their counterparts. Among 12- to 17-year-olds, the numbers were 31% and 41%, respectively.Among those 65 and older, 74% of those with sickle-cell disease were vaccinated, compared to 87% for the general population. However, only 110 study participants with sickle-cell disease were in that age-group."It is essential to develop targeted interventions to increase COVID-19 vaccination among people with sickle cell disease," says MiSCDC principal investigator Sarah Reeves, PhD, in a press release on the findings. "This population is chronically underserved in healthcare and society, emphasizing the importance of increasing the accessibility and acceptability of these vaccines."
COVID-19 survivors at higher risk for digestive diseases, study suggests -Adult COVID-19 survivors are at higher risk for digestive diseases, including gastrointestinal (GI) dysfunction, peptic ulcers, gastroesophageal reflux disease (GERD), gallbladder disease, nonalcoholic liver disease, and pancreatic disease—even among patients with mild infections, according to a study published yesterday in BMC Medicine. Southern Medical University researchers in China mined the UK Biobank database to compare rates of digestive diseases among COVID-19 survivors 30 or more days after infection (112,311), a contemporary comparison group (359,671), and a pre-COVID group (370,979) in the United Kingdom. Median follow-up was 8.4 months.Participants were adults aged 37 to 73, and COVID-19 survivors were infected from January 2020 to October 2022. The contemporary group was made up of people who lived at the same time as recruitment of the COVID-19 group, and the historical group was made up of uninfected participants with data from January 2017 to October 2019.Relative to the contemporary group, elevated risk in COVID-19 survivors was 38% for GI dysfunction (hazard ratio [HR], 1.38), 23% for peptic ulcers, 41% for GERD, 21% for gallbladder disease, 35% for severe liver disease, 27% for nonalcoholic liver disease, and 36% for pancreatic disease.The risk of GERD rose stepwise with COVID-19 severity, and the risk of GERD and GI dysfunction persisted 1 year after diagnosis (HRs, 1.64 and 1.35, respectively). Reinfected participants had a higher likelihood of having pancreatic disease (HR, 2.57)The study authors said that the reasons for the increased risks may be fecal-oral viral transmission, interactions between the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein and the expression of angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 (ACE2) receptors in the digestive tract, or virus-associated inflammation."This underscores the significance of ensuring that healthcare systems are equipped to provide appropriate care to this population of mild cases, as well as varying degrees of COVID-19 severity," they wrote.
Study suggests people who limit meat 40% less likely to get COVID, but some experts skeptical --People who follow a plant-based diet may be at 39% lower risk of COVID-19 infection and a 38% lower risk of severe symptoms, an observational study by Brazilian researchers suggests, although some experts cite confounding factors that could have skewed the results. Universidade de Sao Paulo researchers recruited 702 adults to complete online questionnaires on sociodemographic factors, lifestyle, medical history, eating patterns, and COVID-19 infection, severity, and duration from March to July 2022 (Delta and Omicron variant waves). BMJ Nutrition, Prevention & Healthpublished the results yesterday.Participants were classified as omnivorous (424 patients) or plant-based (278), with the plant-based group subdivided into vegetarians (191) and flexitarians (87). Omnivores eat food of any animal origin, while people with a plant-based diet may follow several dietary patterns, including flexitarian (eating meat no more than three times per week), lacto-ovo-vegetarians (eating eggs and/or milk but no meat, fish, or shellfish), and strict vegetarians or vegans (eating no animal-derived foods). "Populations that consume a diet rich in animal foods, with high amounts of saturated fats, and ultra-processed foods, have a higher prevalence of cardiometabolic diseases, risk factors for complications of COVID-19 in adults and the elderly," the study authors noted. On the other hand, "plant-based dietary patterns are rich in antioxidants, phytosterols and polyphenols, which positively affect several cell types implicated in the immune function and exhibit direct antiviral properties." In total, 330 people (47.0%) reported a COVID-19 diagnosis, 224 (31.9%) of them with mild illness and 106 (15.1%) with moderate or severe illness. Omnivorous respondents had a significantly higher rate of COVID-19 than plant-based participants (51.6% vs 39.9%).Of COVID-positive respondents, those who were omnivorous had a higher rate of moderate or severe disease than the plant-based group (17.7% vs 11.2%), but illness duration didn't differ between the two groups.Participants who followed a plant-based or vegetarian diet consumed more fruits and vegetables, legumes, cereals, nuts and seeds, and vegetable oils and less dairy, eggs, and meat. In contrast, omnivores ate more meat.After adjusting for confounders such as body mass index (BMI), physical activity, and underlying medical conditions, the plant-based and vegetarian group each had a 39% (odds ratio [OR], 0.61) lower chance of COVID-19 infection than omnivores. There was no difference in illness duration.In an analysis of the link between diet and COVID-19 severity using models of the omnivorous and plant-based groups, the latter had a 38% lower rate of infection in the crude model (OR, 0.62). After adjusting for potential confounding factors, the rate ranged from 41% in model 1 to 39% in model 3, with the lowest COVID-19 rate in plant-based respondents.Omnivores had a higher rate of chronic conditions than the plant-based participants had. Of all participants, 62.5% reported being physically active. The plant-based group reported a higher rate of physical activity than their omnivorous counterparts. Average BMI and prevalence of overweight and obesity was significantly lower in plant-based respondents than in their omnivorous peers.Vegetarians and flexitarians had a lower chance of COVID-19 infection in the crude analysis (OR, 0.62 and 0.63, respectively) and in model 1 (OR, 0.58 and 0.61, respectively). These findings held true in models 2 and 3 (OR for both, 0.61).
Bivalent vaccines help prevent COVID-related stroke, heart attack, US data show Bivalent (two-strain) COVID-19 vaccines help protect against COVID-19–related thromboembolic events, including strokes, embolisms, and heart attacks, more so than monovalent (one-strain) vaccines, according to a study today in Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report.The study was based on outcomes seen among Medicare enrollees ages 65 and older and adults ages 18 years or older with end-stage renal disease (ESRD) receiving dialysis. Outcomes among those who had received a bivalent mRNA COVID-19 booster were compared to patients who had only the monovalent COVID-19 primary vaccine series.The Medicare beneficiaries, who did not have compromised immune systems (ie, were immunocompetent), entered the study on September 4, 2022. Researchers updated vaccination status daily. Follow-up continued until March 4, 2023, or a COVID-19–related thromboembolic event.The authors defined a thromboembolic event as an ischemic stroke, venous thromboembolism, or myocardial infarction from 7 days before through 30 days after COVID-19 diagnosis.Among 12,706,176 Medicare beneficiaries aged 65 years and older who had previously received an original COVID–19 vaccine, 5,683,208 (44.7%) received a bivalent dose. Among 78,618 Medicare beneficiaries aged 18 and older years with ESRD receiving dialysis, 23,229 (29.5%) received a bivalent dose, including 7,239 (31.2%) aged 18 to 64 years and 15,990 (68.8%) aged 65 years or older.For both those 65 and older and those with ESRD, getting a bivalent booster was associated with getting a seasonal flu vaccine, and an original monovalent booster.During the study period, 22,001 Medicare beneficiaries had a COVID-19–related thromboembolic event, as did 1,040 ERSD beneficiaries. The researchers calculated an adjusted vaccine effectiveness (VE) against COVID-19–related thromboembolic events among immunocompetent beneficiaries aged 65 years and older of 47%, with lower VE estimates more than 60 days after bivalent vaccine receipt (42%) compared with VE estimates 7 to 59 days after bivalent vaccine receipt (54%). For those with ESRD, adjusted VE against COVID-19–related thromboembolic events was 51%, with lower VE estimates more than 60 days after bivalent vaccine receipt (45%) than 7 to 59 days after bivalent vaccine receipt (56%).
Bivalent COVID vaccine very effective against severe illness in children, study concludes -Two new US studies suggest that the bivalent (two-strain) Pfizer/BioNTech mRNA COVID-19 vaccine offered children and adolescents good protection against severe outcomes such as hospitalization during Delta and Omicron predominance and that vaccine-induced antibodies can neutralize Omicron BA.2.86 but that the subvariant has features linked to severe symptoms.The bivalent vaccine was replaced by a monovalent (single-strain) version in fall 2023.In an observational comparative-effectiveness study, researchers from the University of Pennsylvania and Children's Hospital of Philadelphia (CHOP) analyzed data on vaccine effectiveness (VE) against infection and severe disease from 250,000 never-infected COVID-19 patients at pediatric health systems participating in the national PEDSnet collaboration. About half of participants had received at least one dose of the Pfizer vaccine during the Delta and Omicron waves that began in mid-2021 and 2022, respectively. The results were published today in the Annals of Internal Medicine.Study participants were included in one of three cohorts: adolescents aged 12 to 20 years during the Delta wave (77,392 participants; 58.2% vaccinated) and children aged 5 to 11 years (111,539 participants; 45.2% vaccinated) and adolescents aged 12 to 20 (56,080 participants; 38.0% vaccinated) during the Omicron period.During Delta, estimated VE was 98.4% against infection among adolescents, with no significant waning after the first dose and no significant difference in cardiac complications between vaccinated and unvaccinated groups. During Omicron, estimated VE against infection in children was 74.3%. Higher VEs were seen against moderate or severe illness (75.5%) and intensive care unit (ICU) admission (84.9%). In adolescents, estimated VE against Omicron infection was 85.5% (84.8% against moderate or severe COVID-19 and 91.5% against ICU admission). VE against Omicron waned 4 months after dose one and then leveled off. Vaccinated participants were at lower risk for cardiac complications during this period.For a cell-culture study published yesterday in Cell, Ohio State University researchers analyzed neutralizing antibodies in serum samples from healthcare providers who received three monovalent vaccine doses or two monovalent doses followed by a bivalent booster and from first responders infected with COVID-19 during the Omicron XBB.1.5 wave.They compared the ability of neutralizing antibodies to prevent infection by BA.2.86, the FLip XBB-derived variant, the wild-type virus, and several other variants. BA.2.86 is the ancestor of the currently dominant Omicron JN.1 variant and has more than 30 spike-protein mutations than its close Omicron relatives.Bivalent vaccine-induced serum antibodies produced in healthcare providers were more efficient at neutralizing BA.2.86 than at neutralizing other Omicron variants, including XBB.1.5, which the authors said explains why BA.2.86 didn't cause a huge surge. But the three monovalent vaccines and previous XBB.1.5 infection were only marginally effective in preventing BA.2.86 infection.Also, they found that BA.2.86 can infect the cells that line the lower lungs and fuse with the host cell membrane more efficiently, two features tied to severe COVID-19 symptoms.
Study shows lasting T-cell immunity in healthcare workers against SARS-CoV-2 variants -- In a recent study published in the journal Cell Host & Microbe, researchers investigated T-cell response to severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). Sustained, cross-reactive immune memory is essential for protection from severe outcomes in the post-coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic period. Multiple SARS-CoV-2 variants have emerged over time, including the Omicron XBB sublineages. Of late, the Omicron BA.2.86 subvariant has been described, which the World Health Organization has classified as a variant under monitoring due to its hypermutated state. Further, reports suggest an extensive degree of immune evasion by BA.2.86. The ability of spike-specific T-cells to cross-recognize the BA.2.86 spike is unknown. While studies have demonstrated that infection- or vaccine-induced spike-specific T-cell responses against the ancestral strain are cross-reactive against BA.1, it is necessary to determine whether BA.2.86 mutations hamper its recognition by memory T-cells. In the present study, researchers assessed the durability of SARS-CoV-2 spike-specific memory T-cell responses. Thirty-nine healthcare workers with a history of vaccination and infection were included. Blood samples were obtained in mid-late 2023. Twenty-two participants received two vaccine doses, 11 received one, and six received three. Besides, 22 participants had a history of infection before the Omicron wave, while all subjects had a breakthrough infection in the Omicron wave. The researchers measured cytokine production in response to spike peptide pools of the ancestral strain and Omicron BA.1, BA.2.86, and XBB.1 variants. Around 95% of participants mounted a robust cluster of differentiation 4-positive (CD4+) T-cell response to the ancestral spike protein 1.5 years after their last infection. Spike-specific CD4+ T-cell frequency was not significantly different between Omicron variants. The CD4+ T-cell response was preserved against Omicron variants. By contrast, the proportion of CD8+ T-cells to the ancestral spike protein was markedly lower, and it was consistent among Omicron variants. Some participants lacking a CD8 response to the ancestral spike gained CD8 responses against ≥ one Omicron variant. Immunology eBook Compilation of the top interviews, articles, and news in the last year. Download the latest edition Among those with a CD8 response to ancestral spike, most participants had at least half of the CD8 response preserved against Omicron variants, and only some showed a loss of or reduced T-cell reactivity. Further, T-cell responses to nucleocapsid and membrane (N & M) proteins were detected in 35 participants. Most subjects had CD4 responses to both N & M and spike. By contrast, CD8 responders were evenly distributed among those targeting both (spike and N & M), exclusively N & M and spike only. Furthermore, the team compared the spike- and N & M-specific T-cell frequencies in 15 paired samples to measure T-cell maintenance. Samples were obtained at two time points: four to six months before the BA.1 wave (T1) and around 1.5 years after that (T2). Between T1 and T2, nine subjects received a booster dose, and all had a breakthrough infection. Spike-specific CD4+ T-cell frequency did not significantly differ between the two time points. All subjects without a CD4 response to N & M mounted a CD4 response by T2. Only a few participants had detectable CD8+ T-cell responses specific to spike or N & M. The evolution of CD8 responses was variable, with participants showing sustained, lost, or newly acquired responses. The researchers identified four spike-specific memory T-cell subsets – naïve, early differentiated, late differentiated, and effector. CD4+ T-cells specific to the ancestral spike showed an early differentiated memory profile at T1, which marginally decreased by T2, concomitant with an increase in cells with a late differentiated profile. The memory profile of CD8+ T-cells, defined at T2, was diverse, comprising a median of 20% of effector cells, 20% of late differentiated cells, and 40% of early differentiated cells. Conclusions: Taken together, the findings indicate robust memory T-cell responses in healthcare workers more than 1.5 years post-Omicron wave. Maintenance of T-cells could be related to recurrent SARS-CoV-2 exposure, expanding T-cell memory pool, or durable responses lasting from before infection and vaccination. Overall, the hybrid immunity results in the accumulation of spike- and non-spike-specific T-cells, with preserved recognition of highly mutated variants.
Study: Confusing government COVID reporting requirements led to disparities in hospital data sharing A Michigan State University–led study reveals significant disparities among nonfederal US hospitals and labs in COVID-19 public health reporting and electronic clinical data exchange due to inconsistent requirements in 2020 and 2022.For the study, published this week in Health Affairs Scholar, the researchers parsed data from the 2020 and 2022 American Hospital Association information technology supplement surveys on hospital experiences in COVID-19 public health reporting, accessing clinical data from external providers for the care of infected patients, and successes in reporting vaccine-related adverse events to federal and state entities.A total of 2,885 hospital chief executive officers responded to the 2020 survey, while 3,127 responded to the 2022 version.The study authors said that during the initial pandemic wave, public health reporting systems struggled to provide real-time data to key decision-makers, mostly due to data interoperability and analytical shortcomings."From March 2020 onward, both the Department of Health and Human Services and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention mandated US hospitals to consistently report daily on COVID-19 cases," they wrote. "Concurrently, state and local health agencies set forth their data requirements, focusing on hospital capacities and supplies. These reporting obligations were instrumental for governmental monitoring, informed resource distribution, and public awareness."One challenge was the efficient exchange of patient data for COVID-19 treatment, because amid patient surges, most patients were instructed to visit hospitals only if they had severe symptoms."Many had previously seen other health care providers for initial evaluations and treatments," the researchers wrote. "For hospitals, obtaining detailed electronic clinical records from outside sources was crucial for continuous patient care, particularly given the virus' acute nature and the rapid progression of symptoms in some patients."In 2020, 85% of survey respondents said they relayed their capacity and medical supply data to federal public health agencies, while 93% reported to state agencies, and 51% gave this information to local public health agencies.But only 18% of hospitals found the directives to be consistent across government agencies. Most (66%) said the directives were only somewhat similar, and 16% reported that the directives from different levels were dissimilar, noting either obvious differences or a complete lack of comparability.Tackling these challenges is pivotal for ensuring prompt and reliable data, bolstering future public health responses and rejuvenating trust in public health institutions.A total of 59% of hospitals reported problems obtaining data when reporting to federal agencies, 57% experienced challenges at the state level, and 26% faced the challenges locally. Varying definitions of reporting elements posed significant problems, with 53% of hospitals mentioning this issue at the federal level, 50% reporting it at the state level, and 25% noting it locally. Submission templates were widely unavailable, with 43% noting the lack at the state level, 31% encountering it at the federal level, and 23% reporting it at the local level. "Interestingly, across all challenges, reporting to local governments generally appeared to be less burdensome than at the state and federal tiers, highlighting a potential disparity in reporting standards and practices across these different governmental levels," the authors wrote. Many hospitals (32%) continued to transmit data manually throughout the pandemic, although the proportion reporting automatically rose from 18% in 2021 to 23% in 2022. While large commercial labs relayed data to 17% of hospitals in a timely manner, clinic-based providers and emerging test providers did so only 12% and 9% of the time, respectively. A low proportion of hospitals reported problems recording COVID-19 vaccine-related adverse events.
Researcher whose work may have created COVID is STILL receiving $50m in US Government grants - and he's found ANOTHER virus in bats -A research group whose work is feared to have started the Covid pandemic is being funded by the US Government to do similar experiments in other parts of the world.Public records show EcoHealth Alliance has received nearly $50million in US taxpayer money since 2020 for projects that include capturing bats, pangolins and other animals to find new and dangerous viruses in remote parts of the world.The projects — some of which involve experimenting with novel viruses in laboratories — are due to run until up to August 2027.It comes despite the FBI and a growing number of scientists ruling that an accidental lab leak in Wuhan was the likely source of the Covid pandemic.EcoHealth was part of a research project believed by many to be involved in the release of Covid in 2019. It saw researchers hunt for new bat coronaviruses and manipulate them at the Wuhan Institute of Virology.Former President Donald Trump canceled that project and pulled EcoHealth's funding — but the group continues to operate in swathes of Asia.One of its active grants is a $6million project to investigate coronaviruses in bats in Myanmar, Laos, Philippines and other parts of the South East.Titled 'Analyzing the potential for future bat coronavirus emergence in [Asia]', it is similar to the grant thought to have started the Covid pandemic.A separate $6million grant titled 'Understanding risk of Zoonotic Virus Emergence in Hotspots of Southeast Asia' has already led to the discovery of a never-before-seen virus in bats in Thailand which the researchers said had 'almost' as much potential as Covid to infect humans.Experts today warned that continuing to fund EcoHealth was 'reckless'.Republican congressmen are demanding agencies — including the National Institutes of Health and Department of Defense — cut off funding for the virus-research organization.The website for federal grants shows EcoHealth Alliance currently has 11 active grants with the National Institutes of Health (NIH)— worth a total value of $46million. Almost all were signed after the Covid pandemic emerged — with two worth $4.5million signed off as recently as 2022.The grant to find viruses in Asia received a further $600,000 in 2023 to allow it to continue its research. Other grants included a $2.2million grant to capture mice, rats and shrews in Tanzania and test them for Crimean-Congo Hemorrhagic Fever — which has a fatality rate of approximately 30 percent.And a $4.9million grant to search for Nipah and Ebola-like viruses — which have a fatality rate of up to 90 percent — in two southern regions of India.
New Covid variant Juno surges as expert warns school return will fuel more cases --A new and particularly immune-evasive coronavirusvariant is reponsible for the majority of new cases in England, data suggests, as experts warned the return to school will fuel more infections.The JN.1 variant – named “Juno” – was responsible for 62 per cent of the Covid samples sequenced in the final week of 2023, a new report by the UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) revealed on Thursday.At least three hospitals have been forced to reintroduce mask-wearing in a bid to tackle growing winter pressures following the recent spike in Covid and flu admissions – as new NHS figures showed the average number of patients in hospital with Covid grew last week from an average of 3,751 to 4,046 patients a day.Weekly admissions also increased in the seven days up to 5 January with 3,984 people admitted compared to 3,731 – a 7 per cent increase.While the rise in hospital cases remains “very modest” compared with the outset of the pandemic, Professor Sir Andrew Pollard noted that it was driven by new variants.But he pointed to “good news” in the data showing a drop in the percentage of positive cases sequenced by the UKHSA – which he said suggests that hospital cases will also soon start to fall.“This is the typical pattern of variants which have mutations which allow them to spread before being halted in their tracks by growing population immunity against them as more and more people develop infection, or are vaccinated, and become resistant to infection,” he said.“We then have a quieter period until a new variant emerges to start the cycle again.”Describing JN.1 as “one of the most immune-evading variants to date”, Professor Lawrence Young told The Independent that it is “likely to be the lineage from which new variants will evolve”.
Latest Covid strain JN.1 'Juno' is 'most contagious yet' - accounting for two-thirds of cases - Kent Live --While the world has learned to live with it and extreme measures such as lockdowns have become a hopefully distant memory, coronavirus >Covid is still affecting many people. Now the latest mutation, known as JN.1, has become dominant, accounting for around two-thirds of positive cases.Nicknamed 'Juno', it has exploded in recent weeks to become the world's most dominant strain. In November it accounted for just 4%.Health bosses say it made up 65% of all UK cases on December 30. Increased socialising over the festive period is seen as a contributory factor.The Mirror has put together a guide on Britain's most dominant variant, which scientists have said is the most contagious of all.The strain was first detected in Luxembourg in August before spreading to the UK, US and other European countries. It's a close relative of the 'Pirola' strain, formally known as BA 2.86, differing only by a single spike protein.“The rapid rise of infections with the JN.1 variant in the UK and across the world is yet another reminder that the pandemic is far from over. JN.1 is one of the most immune-evading variants to date and is likely to be the lineage from which new variants will evolve,” said Professor Lawrence Young, a virologist at Warwick University.Of the 10 or so sub-variants, the JN.1 has been described as the most infectious, spreading like wildfire from one person to the next. However, this does not mean it is any more severe and, while scientists say all mutations have the potential to make somebody seriously ill, Juno isn't any better or worse.To demonstrate how infectious Juno is, data shows that only 4.3% of people had the virus on December 13, with numbers rising considerably since then. In the US, it went from 3.5% of all Covid cases in mid-November to around 21% a month later, with the CDC saying it now accounts for more than 60% of cases.Prof Young said that further indoor mixing and children returning to school after the Christmas break will likely see cases rise further in the coming weeks. Based on data from the UKHSA and NHS, scientists said last week that Covid cases may reach new record highs by mid-January.Scientists have so far listed eight known symptoms of the JN. variant. They are:
Spain brings back mandatory facemasks in hospitals as Covid spikes again -- Face masks will become mandatory in hospitals and healthcare centres in Spain this week following a surge in respiratory illnesses.The Spanish minority coalition government imposed the measures despite opposition from most of Spain’s 17 autonomous regions, who argued the measures should be recommended but not obligatory.The move comes after hospitals have faced pressure following a spike in cases of flu, Covid-19 and other respiratory illnesses throughout the country.“We are talking about putting on a mask when you enter a health center and taking it off when you leave. I don’t think it is any drama. It is a basic and simple measure of the first order, health minister Mónica García told Spanish radio.Six regions have already introduced the measure and masks have been commonly used on streets and public transport and in health centers in recent months.In the UK, face coverings are needed in clinical areas of three Leicester hospitals despite masks no longer being required by law.Leicester Royal Infirmary, the Leicester General and Glenfield Hospital require the masks in covered wards and emergency department waiting areas. The masks are not be mandatory in non-clinical spaces like offices, lifts, restaurants and corridors, according to University Hospitals of Leicester NHS Trust.
Some Southern Hemisphere countries experiencing rise in COVID -Some countries in the Southern Hemisphere, currently in their summer season, are experiencing higher-than-expected levels of respiratory disease activity for this time of year due to COVID-19, the Pan American Health Organization (PAHO) said yesterday in an epidemiologic update.Activity has been rising since August in many Americas subregions, including the North American, Andean, Brazilian, and Southern Cone, PAHO said. In North America, elevated levels of COVID, flu, and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) levels continue.Meanwhile, in the Andean region, COVID levels are moderate, with levels rising over the past 4 weeks. Bolivia and Ecuador are reporting high activity. In the Southern Cone, COVID activity has ranged from medium to very high over the past 4 weeks, with Chile reporting very high activity, Brazil with high activity, Argentina at the intermediate level, and Paraguay at the moderate level.PAHO also noted that flu has slightly increased from a low level in the Andean subregion and had remained at the epidemic level in Ecuador. In the Southern Cone, Chile has experienced flu above the threshold level over the past 4 weeks.PAHO urged countries in the region to strengthen their respiratory virus surveillance and prepare healthcare systems for possible rises in inpatient visits and hospitalizations.The alert comes amid expanding dominance of the JN.1 Omicron SARS-CoV-2 variant, which is thought to partially evade immunity from earlier infection, vaccination, or both. And though there's no evidence that JN.1 infections are more severe, some experts have warned that a surge in cases could put pressure on health systems.
Covid kills nearly 10,000 in a month as holidays fuel spread, WHO says -Almost 10,000 coronavirus deaths were reported in December, and admissions to hospitals and intensive care units surged, World Health Organization Director General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said — with data indicating that holiday gatherings fueled increased transmission of the virus. “Although covid-19 is no longer a global health emergency, the virus is still circulating, changing and killing,” Tedros said at a news conference in Geneva on Wednesday. There was a 42 percent increase in hospitalizations and a 62 percent increase in ICU admissions from the previous month. Trends are based on data reported to the WHO from fewer than 50 countries, mostly in Europe and the Americas, said Tedros, who noted that this is not the full picture. “It is certain that there are also increases in other countries that are not being reported,” he said. The WHO said in an email Thursday that Russia appears to be reporting the most cases to the health body but stressed that “many countries have reduced or stopped reporting, which is part of the problem.” The JN.1 variant is now the most commonly reported globally, Tedros said. The new dominant variant appears to be much more adept than earlier ones at infecting those who are vaccinated or who have been previously infected, The Washington Post reported. “Although 10,000 deaths a month is far less than the peak of the pandemic, this level of preventable death is not acceptable,” Tedros said as he urged governments to carry on close surveillance and to provide people with vaccines and treatments. Maria Van Kerkhove, technical leader at the WHO for covid-19, said at the same conference that other respiratory infections around the world are also on the rise — trends she expects to continue into January. “This year, particularly in the Northern Hemisphere, we are seeing close circulation of many different types of pathogens,” she said, citing influenza, rhinovirus and bacteria like mycoplasma pneumonia. Van Kerkhove said that with the world opening back up during the coronavirus pandemic, “these viruses, these bacteria, which pass effectively between people through the air, take advantage.” In the U.S., a dominant new covid variant called JN.1 is linked to an uptick in hospitalizations and deaths.
About 3% of Omicron survivors in Malaysia had long COVID at 3 months, data reveal | CIDRAP -An observational study from Malaysia during a SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant surge suggests that 3.4% of adult COVID-19 survivors had persistent symptoms 3 months after infection, with 1 in 5 saying the symptoms limited their ability to perform activities of daily living and 1 in 3 saying they were less able to work.The results of the investigation, conducted from April to June 2022, were published late last week inPLOS One.Most of the 44,386 participants were women, aged 30 to 59 years, recipients of a high school education, and had been fully vaccinated against COVID-19. A quarter of participants (25.7%) had chronic conditions, the most common of which were obesity, high blood pressure, and diabetes. About the same number (24.6%) had symptoms during infection, 2.5% were hospitalized, 0.6% needed supplemental oxygen, and 0.3% received intensive care.A total of 44,386 participants completed online questionnaires at baseline and 3 months after diagnosis, 1,510 (3.4%) of them meeting the criteria for long COVID. The most common symptoms were cough (50.6%), fatigue (45.8%), memory loss (37.4%), shortness of breath on exertion (31.3%), impaired ability to focus (27.8%), headache (26.5%), muscle or joint pain (25.8%), and insomnia (23.4%). Women, those aged 30 to 59 years (vs 18 to 29 years), and those with underlying medical conditions, symptomatic infection, and/or hospitalization during infection were more likely to have long COVID-19 at 3 months. Symptomatic infection was linked to an estimated 13 times greater likelihood (adjusted odds ratio, 13.3) of developing long COVID. In contrast, participants aged 60 years and older and minority ethnicities were less likely to develop the condition.Of the 1,510 long-COVID patients, 1 in 5 reported an impaired ability to perform daily activities, and at least 1 in 3 said their work was affected."As the symptoms cut across multiple organ systems, management of individuals affected by this condition will likely require, or benefit from, dynamic and coordinated cross-sectoral interventions involving multiple specialties," the study authors concluded.
Nearly two thirds of Korean SARS-Cov-2 cohort had long COVID at 2 years -Two years after COVID-19 infection, 62.0% of a South Korean cohort still had symptoms such as fatigue, memory loss, and depression, finds a study published today in Scientific Reports.Kyungpook National University researchers evaluated 121 adults infected with wild-type SARS-Cov-2 in February and March 2020 for symptoms and the role of vaccination after infection as a mitigating factor. The patients visited a hospital 6, 12, 18, and 24 months after infection to report symptoms, quality of life, and mental health.The median age was 52 years, 59.5% were women, 83.4% had mild to moderate infections, and 93.4% were vaccinated post-infection. No patients needed extracorporeal membrane oxygenation or emergency dialysis during hospitalization, and none were readmitted.Six months after infection, 58.7% of patients had at least one long-COVID symptom. At 1 and 2 years, 51.2% and 62.0% reported one or more symptoms, respectively. The most common symptoms at 2 years were fatigue (25.6%), memory loss (23.1%), trouble concentrating, and insomnia (19.0%). Other symptoms included hair loss (12.4%), dizziness (9.9%), tingling or numbness (9.9%), and impaired smell (6.6%) and taste (1.7%).Cough, fever, sputum production, and impaired smell and taste got better over time, but a greater proportion of patients reported memory loss and trouble concentrating over time. Rates of joint pain, hair loss, and tingling or numbness held steady over the study period.Vaccination frequency and number of doses received didn't change the frequency of neuropsychiatric symptoms. "However, due to our small number of unvaccinated patients, a study with a higher proportion of unvaccinated patients will be required to determine the effectiveness of vaccination on long COVID," the study authors wrote.
Northern Hemisphere activity fuels further global flu rise --Rising flu activity in temperate Northern Hemisphere countries, especially in North America, Europe, and Central Asia, has led to a rise in global flu detections, the World Health Organization (WHO) said yesterday in an update that covers roughly the middle 2 weeks of December.In North America, flu is high or very high across most of the United States, and Canada's activity is at expected levels for this time of year. For the week ending December 31, activity in Europe and Central Asia was up sharply over the epidemic threshold. For example, Russia reported very high flu activity, with Greece and Luxembourg reporting high levels. East Asia's activity remained elevated, mainly due to activity in China and South Korea. Elsewhere, Algeria reported an increase in flu detections, as did Lebanon. In Oceania, Australia's flu activity remained low overall, but with small increases reported in some states. And in temperate South America, flu was above the seasonal threshold in Chile. Globally, of respiratory samples that were positive for flu at national flu labs in the middle of December, 86.6% were influenza A, and, of subtyped samples, 72.7% were the H3N2 strain.
US respiratory virus levels remain high amid possible post-holiday spike -Emergency department visits for illnesses involving all three major respiratory viruses declined last week, but the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) said today that changes in holiday-related health seeking behavior may have played a role in the downward trend.In its latest data updates today, the CDC said the bigger picture reveals that levels remain elevated or increasing across the country for flu, COVID, and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) and that it will continue to closely track the indicators.Though hospital occupancy remains stable, some areas are reporting local strain on facilities, fueled partly by recent increases in respiratory illnesses, the CDC noted in its latest respiratory virus snapshot.After several weeks of rises, some flu markers dropped last week, including the percentage of outpatient visits for flulike illness, the percentage of flu-positive respiratory samples at clinical labs, and hospitalizations, the CDC said in its weekly FluView report. "CDC will continue to monitor for a second period of increased influenza activity that often occurs after the winter holidays." Though outpatient visits for flu declined, they remain above the national baseline and above all 10 regional baselines. Also, weekly hospital admissions for flu showed a slight drop.Thirteen more pediatric flu deaths were reported, raising the season's total to 40. The deaths occurred between early December and the first week of January. Six were linked to influenza A, and, of two subtyped samples, one was 2009 H1N1 and the other the H3N2 strain. Seven deaths involved influenza B, and, of three with lineage determined, all were Victoria viruses. Deaths from flu across all age-groups rose slightly, making up 1.3% of all of the nation's fatalities last week.After weeks of steady rises in COVID markers, some indicators stabilized or declined last week, the CDC said in its data updates and respiratory virus snapshot. The main severity metrics—hospitalizations and deaths—still rose last week, but at a slower pace. Hospitalizations increased 3%, and deaths were up 14.3%.Among early indicators, test positivity decreased very slightly and was at 12.7% nationally and was highest in the Northeast. Emergency department (ED) visits declined 13.1% compared to the previous week. The CDC added that ED rates are highest among infants and older adults, but are also elevated for young children.Wastewater levels, another early indicator, are still very high, with all regions showing high and increasing levels that are highest in the South and Midwest. "There are early indications that wastewater activity levels are slowing their rate of increase in the Midwest and Northeast," the CDC said in its respiratory virus snapshot.RSV activity remains elevated, especially in young children, the CDC said. Test positivity for the virus remains stable, but levels are declining in some regions. Hospitalizations levels for RSV are still elevated for young children and are on the rise in older adults. And deaths from RSV, as well as for COVID and flu, remain highest in people ages 65 and older.
Ontario hospitals warn of patient surges, long wait times — Several Ontario hospitals are warning of patient surges and longer wait times in their emergency departments, and the Canadian Medical Association says a lack of access to primary care is a major factor in ERs overflowing across the country. Niagara Health, Oak Valley Health's Markham Stouffville Hospital, Queensway Carleton Hospital in Ottawa and Ross Memorial Hospital in Lindsay, Ont., are all advising patients to consider alternatives to the ER if their condition isn't urgent. Terri Stuart-McEwan, the vice-president of clinical programs and chief nurse executive at Oak Valley Health, said Markham Stouffville Hospital is seeing a nearly 200 per cent increase in patient volumes from the same period pre-pandemic. That's in part due to respiratory illnesses such as COVID-19, influenza and RSV, she said, with many people not recently vaccinated and fewer people masking."We don't want to send people away because that is not the intention," she said. "Our doors are open (24 hours), but it is really about just trying to make sure that patients recognize that they may have to wait because our sickest of our sick are also in there at the same time."Ryan Young, a spokesperson for Ross Memorial, said the hospital has been at about 110 per cent capacity on any given day for the past month, leading to patients being treated in hallways and other "unconventional spaces" such as a staff dining room."We do share in the staffing pressures being experienced by many health-care institutions," Young said."We've also seen patients coming through the door sicker than in the past. This being bolstered by respiratory illnesses, including COVID-19, influenza, and RSV ... they're coming in sicker than in the past, so more required admissions."The Queensway Carleton Hospital in Ottawa said earlier this week it was at 115 per cent occupancy, with 35 patients admitted in the emergency department waiting for a bed and another 70 people waiting to be seen.
Trial supports antibiotic de-escalation for bacteremia caused by Enterobacterales - The findings from a randomized clinical trial in Spain support de-escalation of antibiotic therapy in patients with bacteremia caused by Enterobacterales, researchers reported yesterday in The Lancet Infectious Diseases.Although empiric treatment with antipseudomonal beta-lactams is often necessary with severe infections to ensure that the causative organism is covered, these drugs can exert selection pressure for resistance mechanisms and increase the risk of Clostridioides difficile, which is why de-escalation to a narrower-spectrum drug is recommended once the infecting pathogen has been identified. But the dearth of evidence on the safety and efficacy of de-escalation in specific clinical situations has been a barrier to wider acceptance of the practice.To determine the safety and efficacy of de-escalation in patients with bacteremia caused by Enterobacterales, investigators randomly assigned trial participants to de-escalate to one of several antibiotics according to susceptibility (the de-escalation group) in the first 48 hours after the antimicrobial susceptibility report was available or to continue with empiric treatment (the control group). The primary outcome was clinical cure 3 to 5 days after end of treatment. The non-inferiority margin was –10%.Of the 344 patients assigned to the treatment groups, 164 patients in the de-escalation group and 173 in the control group were included in the modified intention-to-treat (mITT) population. Analysis of the primary outcome showed that 90% of patients in the de-escalation group had clinical cure, compared with 89% in the control group, for a risk difference of 1.6 percentage points (95% confidence interval, –5.0 to 8.2).The number of adverse events reported was 219 in the de-escalation group and 175 in the control group, with 24% and 32% considered severe, respectively. Five percent of patients in the de-escalation group and 6% in the control group died during the 60-day follow-up, but no deaths were treatment-related.
Outpatient C diff infection may be underdiagnosed, study finds --A study of two large, integrated health systems suggests that outpatient Clostridioides difficile infection (CDI) may be underdiagnosed, researchers reported today in Open Forum Infectious Diseases.In a retrospective study of adult members of Kaiser Permanente Southern California and Kaiser Permanente Northwest, researchers identified 777,533 medically attended diarrhea (MAD) episodes among 592,877 people from 2016 through 2021. The researchers targeted patients with MAD episodes because they haven't been well described and are believed to contribute to a reservoir of undiagnosed CDI cases in the community because these patients don't always get tested for CDI.Of the 777,533 MAD episodes, stool specimen testing was ordered for 37% but only 12.1% were tested for CDI. Testing for CDI was most frequent among patients aged 70 years and older and least common for patients ages 18 to 49. The outpatient incidence rate of CDI was 51.0 per 1,000 patient-years over the entire study period, dropping from 58.2 in 2016 to 45.7 in 2021. Incidence increased with age and was highest among women, non-Hispanic White patients, and those with underlying comorbid conditions.The strong majority of outpatient CDI cases (84.1%) were community-associated (no hospitalization 12 weeks prior to the index case), and less than half (44.1%) received an antibiotic in the 30 days before the index date. Roughly one third of patients with outpatient CDI did not receive treatment or have frequent contact with the healthcare system in the year following their infection."While lower-than-expected rates of CDI treatment and relatively low levels of healthcare utilization in the one year following outpatient CDI diagnosis indicate short illness duration and limited impact on the healthcare system, the low frequency of C. difficile testing among patients presenting with diarrhea indicates that outpatient CDI may be underdiagnosed, and the incidence of outpatient CDI may be higher than appreciated," the study authors wrote.The authors add that the lack of recent antibiotic use or hospitalization among many of the identified outpatient CDI cases suggests other factors, such as transmission within households, could be contributing to the occurrence of CDI in the general community.
Study highlights contamination of high-touch hospital surfaces -A study today in the American Journal of Infection Controlillustrates the challenges hospitals face in trying to control the type of microbial contamination that can contribute to the spread of healthcare-associated infections (HAIs)The study found that several high-touch surfaces in the Central Texas Veterans Health Care System, including bed rails and nurse's station keyboards, harbored multiple colonies of bacteria despite the hospital's adherence to routine disinfection strategies. Of the 60 different types of pathogens isolated, 7 were classified as important in healthcare settings because of their potential to cause HAIs.The study authors also note that while many of the organisms identified were previously considered harmless, recent advances in bacterial identification suggest that some have the potential to be opportunistic pathogens.To understand the bioburden associated with high-touch hospital surfaces, which can play a role in HAI transmission via healthcare workers' (HCWs') or patients' hands, a team of researchers collected microbiologic samples from bed rails, workstations on wheels, nurses' station keyboards, simulation manikins, and breakroom tables in a single medical unit from June to July 2022. A total of 400 surfaces were sampled, both before and after disinfection.The researchers chose those surfaces because of the high frequency of contact by HCWs or patients. They also searched the hospital's microbiologic laboratory database for all of 2022 to identify clinically relevant organisms that matched the recovered surface organisms.From the 12,347 bacterial colonies detected through sampling, 60 types of organisms were identified. All the sampled surfaces exhibited high total bacterial counts, with medical manikins and bed rails harboring the largest variety of bacterial species (20 and 23 organisms, respectively).The study authors say that while manikins aren't typically considered a high-touch surface because patients don't come into contact with them, the Central Texas Veterans Health Care System requires staff to undergo manikin-based competency assessments of chest compression and airway management. A group of six experts at the hospital (five infectious disease physicians and a microbiologist) concluded that 18 of the identified organisms were well-known human pathogens, 7 of which are considered important in healthcare settings according to the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.Some of the well-known pathogens identified included Escherichia coli, Staphylococcus aureus (both methicillin-resistant and methicillin-susceptible), Enterococcus faecium and faecalis, Pseudomonas aeruginosa, Klebsiella aerogenes, and Streptococcus. The hospital's clinical microbiology laboratory identified 29 of the 60 surface organisms in clinical isolates (mainly from urine, skin and other soft tissue, and blood).Even some of the less well-known organisms identified, like Pseudomonas luteola and Bacillus megaterium,have been linked to severe and fatal infections in immune-suppressed patients, the authors note.
- In an ongoing investigation into a recent measles cluster, the Philadelphia Department of Public Health (PDPH) has now confirmed five cases and has reported three suspected infections. In a January 5 update, the agency said three patients remain hospitalized. The initial patient was hospitalized in early December, which resulted in three confirmed cases in patients who weren't immune to the virus. One of the patients attended daycare on December 20 and 21, exposing children and staff. In a previous update, PDPH said the patient's caregivers had disregarded quarantine and exclusion instructions. Two children at the daycare tested positive, both of whom were hospitalized. Three other potential cases have been reported in kids from the daycare. Health officials continue to track potentially exposed people and are offering free measles, mumps, and rubella (MMR) vaccination at city health centers.
- South Sudan's health ministry recently reported a yellow fever outbreak, with one case confirmed so far. The patient is an 18-year-old man from Yambio County in Western Equatoria state in the southwest, according to a December 24 statement. His symptoms began on December 21, and after healthcare providers determined that his illness met the case definition for yellow fever, they isolated the man and collected a blood sample. Testing at the country's national lab and at the Uganda Virus Research Institute confirmed yellow fever. The South Sudan health ministry has activated the emergency operations center to coordinate the response and is conducting a field investigation with a team of experts from partner organizations. With World Health Organization support, the health ministry has applied for yellow fever vaccine doses from the global stockpile for campaigns in the affected region.
- A bombing today by militants in northwestern Pakistan near the Afghanistan border has killed five police officers who were in a truck on their way to guard polio vaccinators working on a campaign in a tribal area, the Straits Times reported today. The Pakistan Taliban has reportedly claimed responsibility for the bombing, part of a series of attacks ahead of Pakistan's February 8 national election. The attack also wounded 20 other officers. Pakistan is one of a few countries where wild poliovirus type 1 (WPV1) is still endemic, but extremist groups have targeted polio vaccination efforts due to suspicions that the immunizers are spies, and that the vaccine could make Muslims infertile.
Indonesia reports more vaccine-derived polio cases - In December, Indonesia's health ministry reported two more cases of circulating vaccine-derived poliovirus type 2 (cVDPV2) cases, raising its total since October 2022 to six, the World Health Organization (WHO)said yesterday. One of the patients is a 6-year-old girl from Central Java province who had recently traveled to Madura Island in East Java province. Her acute flaccid paralysis symptoms began on November 21. She had received two doses of bivalent oral polio vaccine. Genetic sequencing suggests her infection is related to a virus that was identified in a previous case in West Java province in March 2023.The other patient is a 1-year-old boy from Madura Island in a district that neighbors the one the girl had visited. His paralysis symptoms began on November 22, and he had received four doses of bivalent oral polio vaccine.Some areas where recent cases were reported have suboptimal vaccine coverage. The WHO said there are no hard-to-reach areas, but sociocultural barriers on Madura Island contribute to vaccine hesitancy, including fear of adverse effects and of multiple injections, and sometimes religious reasons.Of the Indonesia's four other cases reported since October 2022, three were in Aceh province, with the other in West Java. Detection of cVDPV2 in at least two different sources at least 2 months apart, both with genetic links, shows evidence of community transmission, the WHO said. The agency added that Indonesian officials are conducting active case finding and are boosting efforts to shore up immunization uptake. And, based on the government's request, the WHO has approved the release of 20 million doses of novel oral polio vaccine type 2, the next-generation vaccine designed to curb outbreaks involving cVDPV2.In other polio developments, three African countries reported more polio cases, all involving cVDPV2, according to the latest update from the Global Polio Eradication Initiative. All are included in the country totals for 2023. Guinea reported 3 cases in two provinces, raising its total for the year to 34. Mozambique reported 1 case, in Manica, which marks the nation's first case of 2023. Nigeria reported two 2 cases in Kano, raising the country's 2023 total to 64.
Argentina's Western equine encephalitis cases rise to 21 - Following Argentina's report in December of a rare human Western equine encephalitis (WEE) case, its first in more than two decades, the number of infections has risen to 21, the Pan American Health Organization (PAHO) said yesterday in an update. Also, as of January 9, health officials have reported 338 outbreaks in animals across Argentina, along with 36 animal outbreaks in Uruguay. So far, 91 suspected cases have been reported, of which 21 were confirmed. Eleven were from Buenos Aires province, with illnesses also reported from Santa Fe (8), Entre Rios (1), and Santiago del Estero (1) provinces. One of the cases was fatal. All but two of the patients are male, and their ages range from 9 months to 75 years, with most of the cases in people ages 50 and older. The most common symptoms were sudden fever onset, headache, vomiting, and mental confusion. All patients were hospitalized, and eight needed intensive care unit treatment. Eleven remain hospitalized, and nine have been discharged. Of seven patients with exposure histories, three were veterinarians, two were construction workers, and two had taken part in recreational activities. Birds are the main hosts of the virus, which can pass the disease to humans and animals through infected mosquitoes. People who work or play outdoors in areas where the virus is endemic or is causing outbreaks in animals are at higher risk of infection.
Report describes 4 cases of deer-to-human TB transmission in Michigan --Yesterday in Clinical Infectious Diseases, scientistsreport on four people in Michigan who contracted tuberculosis (TB) linked to wild deer and domestic cattle from 2019 to 2022, raising the total number of zoonotic cases in the state to seven since 2002.A team led by physicians at Corewell Health East and the University of Michigan reviewed data andMycobacterium bovis cultures from the Michigan Department of Health and Human Services TB database. They conducted interviews and compared whole-genome sequences of human isolates with a veterinary library of M bovis strains.The study authors noted the 1994 identification of M bovis cases in wild deer in northern lower Michigan in 1994, with transmission to local cattle. From 2002 to 2017, M bovis infections in three deer hunters were reported in the state.The three confirmed and one probable human M bovis cases identified from 2019 and 2022 resulted in cutaneous disease, two cases of severe pulmonary disease, and one case of human-to-human spread. Those infected were a taxidermist, a woman who interacted with deer in the affected area, and a man with no obvious animal exposures and his female household contact. The three human isolates had zero to three mutations linked to M bovis strains circulating in local deer and cattle. The authors said M bovis continues to spread from deer to humans and cattle and poses a particular risk to people with weakened immune systems.
- Cameroon's health ministry today announced that its malaria vaccine campaign will launch on January 22, with free doses available to children at public and private clinics across 42 health districts, Xinhuareported today, based on a health ministry statement. In November, Cameroon said it would receive331,200 doses of RTS,S, which is produced by GSK. The launch of the malaria vaccine in Cameroon is part of a broader rollout in Africa, where a few countries such as Malawi have been part of pilot programs. Africa has been hardest hit by malaria.
- Two more measles cases have been confirmed in Philadelphia's measles outbreak, raising the total to eight, the Philadelphia Department of Public Health said yesterday in an update. Seven patients are Philadelphia residents, and one is from outside the city. The outbreak began in December, with the virus spreading to two hospital patients and to children in a daycare. The health department also expanded its list of potential exposure sites, most of which are clinics or hospitals.
- More countries in Europe continue to report more highly pathogenic H5N1 avian flu outbreaks in wild birds and poultry, according to the latest notifications from the World Organization for Animal Health (WOAH). Sweden reported its first recurrence in poultry since June 2023, with the virus striking a broiler breeding farm near Sjobo in Skane County in the south. Also, Finland reported the virus in a goshawk found dead in Helsinki.
More avian flu outbreaks in 4 US states -- With the start of 2024, highly pathogenic avian flu outbreaks have already been confirmed in four states, with California the hardest-hit state, according to the latest updates from the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS).In California, the virus was detected at three more commercial farms, including a layer pullet farm in Merced County housing more than 760,000 birds, a broiler farm in Merced County that has nearly 535,000 birds, and a broiler farm in Sonoma County that has nearly 78,000 birds. Also, officials reported an outbreak involving two of the state's backyard flocks, one in Merced County and the other in Sacramento County.Meanwhile, two other states reported outbreaks affecting commercial farms. Wisconsin reported an event at a turkey facility in Washburn County that has 41,000 birds, and in Kansas, the virus hit a layer pullet farm in Rice County that was raising 240,000 birds. Colorado reported an outbreak in a backyard flock in Arapahoe County.So far this year avian flu outbreaks have led to the loss of 1.66 million birds, APHIS said. The H5N1 outbreaks began in US poultry in February 2022 and have so far led to a record loss of 81.37 million birds across 47 states.
Avian flu detected for first time in Antarctica's sea mammals Just months after the spread of avian flu was first confirmed in Antarctica's wild birds, the virus has now been detected for the first time in the region's mammals, which include elephant seals and fur seals on the island of South Georgia.In a statement, the South Georgia and South Sandwich government said following the detection of the virus in wild birds in October, scientists spent 3 weeks aboard a British navy vessel visiting affected islands and collecting samples from dead mammals and birds. Sequencing has identified the H5N1 strain in samples from the two seal species, as well as birds, including brown skuas, kelp gulls, and Antarctic terns."The available genomic surveillance data continues to suggest no widespread mammalian adaptation of the virus. There remains no increased risk to human health—the risk of human infection with H5N1 remains very low," the government said.Animal health groups have warned about the risk of virus spread to Antarctica's wildlife populations, with 48 bird species and 26 mammal species living in the region, often in dense colonies. The latest detections follow further southward spread of the virus, raising worries that the virus could jump to Oceania. Elsewhere, European countries and Japan reported more highly pathogenic avian flu detections in wild birds and poultry, according to the latest notifications from the World Organization for Animal Health. In Europe,Germany reported an outbreak at a poultry farm in Bavaria state, and Denmark reported more detections in wild birds from six locations. And in Japan, animal health officials reported the H5N5 strain in a large-billed crow found dead in Hokkaido prefecture.
CWD confirmed in another Wyoming elk hunt area - Chronic wasting disease (CWD) has been detected in another Wyoming elk hunt area, according to the Wyoming Game and Fish Department (WGFD).In a news release yesterday, WGFD said the fatal neurodegenerative infection was confirmed in a hunter-harvested cow elk in Elk Hunt Area 28 in late December. The hunt area is in the Lander area in the central part of the state and borders Elk Hunt areas 98 and 127, where CWD was confirmed in 2021 and 2022, respectively.In 2022, WGFD tested 6,701 lymph node samples from deer, elk, and moose, most of them hunter-submitted. Caused by misfolded proteins called prions, CWD isn't known to infect humans or other non-cervid animals, but experts worry it could jump species. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention recommends against consuming meat from obviously ill animals or those that test positive for CWD.
Doctors Raise Alarm on Dropping Global Fertility Rate, Environmental Pollutants Cited - Health researchers from around the world are sounding an alarm on a persistent drop in fertility rates, pointing to environmental pollutants among a wide range of factors that they argue need to be urgently addressed in a paperpublished Wednesday.Both male and female reproductive health is deteriorating, especially in industrialized regions, suggesting important roles of environmental factors, such as endocrine-disrupting chemicals and pesticides, the authors of the paper state. Studies indicate that the global fertility rate is dropping, with 93% of all countries worldwide expected to dip below levels necessary to keep populations from shrinking by 2100.The trend is driven, in part, by the impacts of exposure to toxic chemicals, as well as lifestyle factors such as smoking and obesity, according to the 11 researchers authoring the paper, which was published Wednesday in the journal Human Reproduction Update. The researchers – who come from multiple countries, including the United States, Australia, South Africa, Greece, and Denmark – reviewed dozens of studies in coming to their central conclusion that public policy, research and medical access must be stronger on the topic of fertility.In conjunction with the publication of the paper, the International Federation of Fertility Societies (IFFS), which represents fertility societies in 65 countries, is launching a global campaign Wednesday seeking to push policymakers to make fertility care more affordable, accessible, and equitable, and to adopt policies that aid fertility, including reducing exposures to air pollution and other harmful chemicals linked to reproductive harm.The paper says that “due to multiple societal and environmental changes, it is important to emphasize that globally between 48 million couples and 186 million individuals of reproductive age live with infertility.” They call infertility “a common chronic disease affecting many reproductive-age women and men.”Data on the decline in total fertility rate around the world – the number of children each woman gives birth to, a critical factor in population growth – is “pretty remarkable,” said Tracey Woodruff, a professor at the University of California, San Francisco School of Medicine who was not involved in the paper.“This is really an important issue because it impinges on people’s ability to choose pregnancy should they want to choose pregnancy,” said WoodruffAmong environmental pollutants, endocrine-disrupting chemicals, in particular, are a fertility concern, she said. “We know that the number and amount of them are increasing and we know that some of them can directly impact male and female reproductive health.”It is difficult to fully calculate the role of environmental pollutants in infertility since “we only have data on a very small proportion of endocrine-disrupting chemicals to which we’re exposed,” she added.About one in six people struggle with infertility, according to the World Health Organization. Research suggests sperm count in men has declined by 1.6% per year since 1973, although the impact on global fertility is unknown, the paper states.
Plastic Chemicals Causing Infertility, Diabetes Found 'Widespread' In Common Food Items: Report - Many of the foods consumed by Americans are contaminated with harmful plastic chemicals that contribute to health complications like diabetes, cardiovascular disorders, and infertility, said a recent report by the nonprofit group Consumer Reports (CR). CR tested 85 food items from 11 categories—beverages, canned beans, condiments, dairy, fast food, grains, infant food, meat and poultry, packaged fruits and vegetables, prepared meals, and seafood, according to the Jan. 4 report. Researchers examined the presence of plasticizers—a chemical used to boost the durability of plastics. The group analyzed two to three samples from each food item, looking for two types of common plasticizers—bisphenols and phthalates—as well as some of their substitutes. They found that these chemicals remained “widespread” in our food products despite “growing evidence” of health risks. CR discovered that 79 percent of tested samples had bisphenols while 84 out of 85 items had phthalates.Exposure to such plasticizers can cause severe health issues, like for example in children, bisphenol A (BPA) exposure can negatively affect the brain and prostate glands as well as their behavior. BPA has also been linked with type 2 diabetes, cardiovascular diseases, and high blood pressure.Phthalates have been associated with obesity, type 2 diabetes, lower sperm motility and concentration, early puberty in girls, and cancer.Both bisphenols and phthalates have been shown to be endocrine disruptors, meaning they can interfere with the generation and regulation of hormones. Disruptions to hormone levels can lead to cardiovascular disease, infertility, diabetes, and neurodevelopmental disorders.Exposure to these chemicals can come from the environment, food, and packaging, right from dust in the house to the printed receipt from a grocery store.CR found that the levels of BPA and other bisphenols were “notably lower” compared to when the group last tested for BPA in 2009. This suggested that “we are at least moving in the right direction on bisphenols,” said James E. Rogers, who oversees product safety testing at the organization.However, there wasn’t “any good news” on phthalates. Not only were they present in almost all foods, but their levels were also “much higher” compared to bisphenols.Some of the top food items with the highest level of phthalate contamination as discovered by CR’s tests are as follows:
- Beverages: Brisk Iced Tea Lemon, Coca-Cola Original, Lipton Diet Green Tea Citrus, and Poland Spring 100 percent natural spring water.
- Canned Beans: Hormel Chili with Beans, Bush’s Chili Red Beans Mild Chili Sauce, and Great Value (Walmart) Baked Beans Original.
- Condiments: Mrs. Butterworth’s Syrup Original and Hunt’s Tomato Ketchup.
- Dairy: Fairlife Core Power High Protein Milk Shake Chocolate, SlimFast High Protein Meal Replacement Shake Creamy Chocolate, Yoplait Original Low Fat Yogurt, and Tuscan Dairy Farms Whole Milk.
- Fast Food: Wendy’s Crispy Chicken Nuggets, Moe’s Southwest Grill Chicken Burrito, Chipotle Chicken Burrito, Burger King Whopper With Cheese, Burger King Chicken Nuggets, and Wendy’s Dave’s Single With Cheese.
- Grains: General Mills Cheerios Original and Success 10 Minute Boil-in-Bag White Rice.
- Infant Food: Gerber Mealtime for Baby Harvest Turkey Dinner, Similac Advance Infant Milk-Based Powder Formula, Beech-Nut Fruities Pouch Pear, Banana & Raspberries, and Gerber Cereal for Baby Rice.
- Meat and Poultry: Perdue Ground Chicken Breast, Trader Joe’s Ground Pork 80% Lean 20% Fat, Premio Foods Sweet Italian Sausage, and Libby’s Corned Beef.
- Packaged Fruits and Vegetables: Del Monte Sliced Peaches in 100% Fruit Juice, Green Giant Cream Style Sweet Corn, and Del Monte Fresh Cut Italian Green Beans.
- Prepared Meals: Annie’s Organic Cheesy Ravioli, Chef Boyardee Beefaroni Pasta in Tomato and Meat Sauce, Banquet Chicken Pot Pie, Campbell’s Chunky Classic Chicken Noodle Soup, and Chef Boyardee Big Bowl Beefaroni Pasta in Meat Sauce.
- Seafood: Chicken of the Sea Pink Salmon in Water Skinless Boneless, King Oscar Wild Caught Sardines in Extra Virgin Olive Oil, and Snow’s Chopped Clams.
Some of these foods had far higher levels of phthalates compared to others. For instance, Annie’s Organic Cheesy Ravioli had 53,579 nanograms of phthalates per serving, which is more than double what was found in Chicken of the Sea Pink Salmon in Water Skinless Boneless, Moe’s Southwest Grill Chicken Burrito, Burger King Whopper With Cheese, and Fairlife Core Power High Protein Milk Shake Chocolate. CR pointed out that regulators from the European Union and the United States have set a threshold for BPA and some of the phthalates. None of the 85 food items exceeded these limits. However, this doesn’t mean that the tested foods are safe for consumption. “Many of these thresholds do not reflect the most current scientific knowledge, and may not protect against all the potential health effects,” said Tunde Akinleye, the CR scientist who oversaw the tests. “We don’t feel comfortable saying these levels are okay. … They’re not.”
Microplastics found in nearly all American proteins: Study --From chicken nuggets to tofu, American proteins have a microplastics problem. An Environmental Pollution study published on Monday reviewed a wide range of meat, fish and vegetarian meat alternatives — and found that 88 percent of them contained some form of microplastics.Microplastics are tiny pieces of plastics the approximate size of a grain of sand or a human hair, which carry a host of potential health risks.Based on annual protein consumption habits of Americans, the scientists found that the average American takes in 11,500 microplastics per year — with the highest protein consumers taking in as many as 3.8 million plastic fragments and fibers.Those samples included fillets from wild fish; shrimp from the Gulf; prepared meats like beef and chicken; and tofu and plant-based ground beef alternatives. The findings represented “a startling reminder of just how prolific plastic pollution has become – humans live on land and yet seafood samples are just as likely to be contaminated with plastics as are terrestrial derived proteins,” study lead author Dr. Britta Baechler, a marine biologist and Associate Director of Plastics Science at Ocean Conservancy. “And there’s no escaping them no matter what you eat, it seems. The plastic pollution crisis is impacting all of us, and we need to take action to address its many forms,” Baechler added. The source of the microplastics is unclear. While highly processed products had “significantly” more microplastics — breaded shrimp had particularly high levels, followed by fish sticks and chicken or plant-based nuggets — scientists cautioned that there was no type of protein that was safer than any other.“The ubiquity of MPs across protein types suggests that where proteins originate: ocean, land, and animal production facilities, does not have a clear influence on overall MP contamination,” they wrote in the paper. One possible reason why processing leads to more plastics may simply be that processed foods spend far more time in contact “in contact with plastic food production equipment (e.g., conveyor belts, and worker clothing) than minimally-processed products,” they wrote. As in much recent reporting on plastics pollution, the scientists were left with significant lingering questions about both the source of the contamination and its impacts on human health. A recent survey by the World Health Organization listed a wide range of possible health risks from nano- and microplastics pollution — before concluding that there isn’t enough research to really know what they are doing to the human body and making an urgent call for more studies to nail that down.“It’s tempting to want to draw conclusions like ‘eat less of this and more of that’ to avoid microplastics in your diet, but right now we still know very little about the microplastic burdens in commonly consumed foods,” “Our study adds to this knowledge but also demonstrates the need for further research to better understand the bigger picture, including where these microplastics are coming from and the potential human health risks,”
Bottled water contains hundreds of thousands of potentially dangerous plastic fragments: study -A new study has found that the average bottle of water contains nearly a quarter million fragments of “nanoplastics” — plastic particles so small they can potentially gum up the machinery of human cells. The findings published Monday in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS) open a disturbing window into a largely unmapped corner of plastic pollution — a region marked by plastics the approximate size of viruses or vaccine particles. “We know microplastics are always in the environment,” coauthor Beizhan Yan of Columbia University told The Hill. “They are high up in the alpine, and down in the Marianas Trench, and quite a lot in New York City water as well.” But microplastics are comparatively large and easy to measure, he said — measurable in millionths of a meter, they can be viewed using technology such as a scanning electron microscope. The team was concerned by nanoplastics, which are particles thousands of times smaller — measurable in billionths of a meter. These smaller sizes can translate to greater danger, Yan said, “because the smaller the particle size, they are easy to get into the human bodies and then cross different barriers.” The tiny compounds, Yan added, “can cross into the blood, and then can cross the different barriers to get into the cells,” interfering with the organelles — cellular organs — “and causing them to malfunction.” Both micro- and nanoplastics have been found to have a wide array of dangerous impacts on a staggering array of key systems in the human body, as a December article in The Lancet found. That survey of recent research found that tiny plastics can interfere with the chemistry of the human body — causing impacts both on and from the communities of microbes in our gut that help us digest food. Micro- and nanoplastics can lead to “oxidative stress, inflammation, immune dysfunction, altered biochemical and energy metabolism, impaired cell proliferation, disrupted microbial metabolic pathways, abnormal organ development, and carcinogenicity,” the Lancet authors wrote. Knowing about the potential risks of nanoplastics is only half the puzzle: Scientists also need to know what plastic polymers people are actually ingesting, and in which quantities, to determine how dangerous exposure may be. That’s where the PNAS study comes in. Using an innovative new method of laser imaging, the scientists were able to identify plastics of far smaller sizes than ever before, including several of potential concern. By running water from three common brands through an extremely fine-grained filter, they were able to trap particles measurable on a scale of billionths of a meter — and then to identify them. Those plastics, however, comprised just 10 percent of the total nanoparticles the scientists found. They also found as-yet-unidentified bits of microscopic clays, metals and the black carbon from fires — as well as plastics so degraded that the imaging technology couldn’t pick them up. The mere presence of objects this size is potentially disruptive to the body, because even if they are chemically inert, they are small enough to get into and disrupt cells, rather like sand in an engine. But the chemical structure of plastics makes them a particular worry, the scientists said. Because plastics are so similar to the chemistry of living creatures — petrochemicals, after all, come from the ancient residues of long-dead organisms — they can mimic or disrupt key biological functions by imitating the structure of the chemical messengers that help drive a wide range of bodily functions. The scientists found a wide array of plastics in the bottles, but five types predominated — starting with polyethylene terephthalate (PET). Since PET makes up the structure of the bottles themselves, that finding came as little surprise. But the water in the bottles was also found to contain a wide array of potentially dangerous nanoplastics that aren’t found in the bottles themselves — pointing to unknown sources of environmental contamination. The scientists identified compounds such as nylon, which breaks down into toxic monomers as it degrades; polystyrene (or Styrofoam, commonly found in foam containers), which can break down into the suspected carcinogen styrene; and polyvinyl chloride (PVC), which can contain harmful additives such as lead or phthalates, and which has been linked to disruptions in the nervous or endocrine systems. In what the researchers called an ironic finding, they also found plastic compounds in the water that matched the primary material in reverse-osmosis filters — suggesting that the plastics had leached into the water by the very process of filtration, co-author Naixin Qian of Columbia University told The Hill. But the more dangerous particles like PVC and polystyrene seemed to have entered the plastic bottles with the “source water” that filled them, Qian said. One possibility for how these may have gotten into that water: According to the Environmental Protection Agency, plastics plants emit aerosolized plastic gases that can get into the environment — entering the air, and therefore rain and water. These particles are small enough to cross the blood-brain barrier, which means they may lead to neural degeneration, particularly in the aged, in whom the barrier is “looser,” Yan said. Exposure to micro- and nanoplastics may lead to cell damage in the nervous system, leading to increased risk of nervous system disorders and changes in behavior — with nanoplastics being more damaging than microplastics. Nanoplastics are also small enough to cross the placenta into the generally sheltered environment of the womb, with unknown effects on a developing fetus. For example, nanoplastics can get inside the umbilical veins that pull blood and waste products back from an embryo, interfering with cell processes that help dispose of cellular debris. They can also cause significant damage to embryonic kidney and reproductive cells, as well as impairing the normal growth of the fetus’s heart. The developing fetal nervous system is also highly susceptible to damage from environmental pollutants, and nanoplastics may make it harder for the cells in fetal brain tissues to stay alive. Given that these plastics enter the body through drinking water — and therefore, the digestive system — that could be the site of the most immediate impacts. Scientists have found that PET interferes with key microbial communities in the human gut, encouraging the growth of harmful bacteria while suppressing beneficial ones. And studies in mice have found that micro- and nanoplastics lead to cell death in the lining of the intestine and increase inflammation in the gut. If nanoplastics are able to get from the digestive system into the blood stream, impacts could be much further reaching — beginning with heart disease. There’s strong evidence that this can happen. A 2021 study found that when rats were fed water embedded with polystyrene, or Styrofoam, nanoparticles, those particles began to accumulate in their hearts — leading to the heart swelling with collagen, making it harder for it to beat and ultimately leading to untimely death among heart cells.
Bottled water industry pushes back on new study warning of nanoplastics --The bottled water industry has pushed back against recent findings from Columbia University that its product contains hundreds of thousands of potentially dangerous “nanoplastics” — plastic particles small enough to get into human cells.In a statement to The Hill, an industry trade association urged people to keep calm (and keep drinking bottled water) while scientists develop a more thorough understanding of these plastics and their impact on the human body.“Media reports about these particles in drinking water do nothing more than unnecessarily scare consumers,” the International Bottled Water Association (IBWA) said. The IBWA was responding to a study published Monday in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS) that found there are nearly 250,000 nanoplastic particles in an average bottle of water. The researchers determined this by using lasers to identify plastic particles smaller than those that had been detectible before. These findings extended scientists’ ability to identify plastic fragments to the previously uncharted nano-scale — made of fragments measurable in billionths of a meter, or the approximate size of a virus.The IBWA pointed to the fact these methods were novel — and the field of nanoplastics toxicology is in its infancy — to caution consumers against paying too much attention to the findings.“There currently is both a lack of standardized methods and no scientific consensus on the potential health impacts of nano- and microplastic particles,” it wrote.The IBWA pointed to findings by the World Health Organization (WHO) that found evidence was too sparse to draw firm conclusions on the health impacts of nanoplastics in the environment — and identified the nano-scale as a particularly urgent priority.In the IBWA’s account, these WHO findings meant less cause for concern. The health organization found that due to that scarcity of research, “no adverse health effects could be drawn” from the eating or drinking foods and beverages contaminated with micro and nanoplastics, the trade association said.It also pointed to studies that had failed to find a clear threshold for what constituted safe microplastics or nanoplastics exposure, and an op-ed by a German government chemist that urged “scientists and ideally journalists [to] have a critical look on applied methods before trusting in the results of studies.”It was, however, this same lack of information pointed to by these sources about the level of nanoplastics humans are consuming and whether they are harmful that the PNAS study itself sought to help solve.A truism of science also holds that absence of evidence does not equal evidence of absence.As such, the WHO report’s caveat about limited data concludes with a host of warnings about potential harms from nano- and microplastics (NMP) pollution.The WHO raised concerns about both the direct effects of such pollution on the human body, and the possibility that toxic microorganisms can form “biofilms” on plastic particles, and ride them into the body to cause wider inflammation and infection.“The possibility of enrichment of antimicrobial-resistance genes in MP-associated biofilms and the role of NMP as vectors for pathogens and chemicals should be studied further,” the WHO wrote. In calling for more research, the WHO was emphatic it considered plastic pollution to be a serious problem that is made worse, not better, by the lack of evidence — and one that the global public increasingly wants to see fixed. “Although the limited data provide little evidence that NMP have adverse effects in humans, there is increasing public awareness and an overwhelming consensus among all stakeholders that plastics do not belong in the environment,” the WHO wrote.On one key point, however, the IBWA, the WHO, the Columbia team and other scientific sources were in agreement: that bottled water was far from the only source of plastics pollution entering human bodies.
PFAS flow equally between Arctic Ocean and Atlantic Ocean, study finds --The frigid Arctic Ocean is far removed from the places most people live, but even so, "forever chemicals" reach this remote landscape. Now, research inEnvironmental Science & Technology Letters suggests that per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) won't stay there indefinitely. Instead, they are transported in a feedback loop, with the Arctic Ocean potentially exporting as many PFAS to the North Atlantic Ocean as it receives, circulating the compounds around the world.To get to the Arctic Ocean, some PFAS hitch a ride in the air and fall onto the ocean's surface, but others enter from adjacent oceans. The potential impact of these compounds on marine organisms depends on which PFAS are present and how many, which is ever-changing as water flows between the Arctic Ocean and the North Atlantic Ocean.These waterbodies are connected by the Fram Strait, which sits to the northeast of Greenland near the Svalbard archipelago. Warm water travels north on the eastern side of the strait, and cold water flows south along the western side, providing a dynamic gateway for PFAS transportation.Rainer Lohmann and colleagues wanted to track the movement of PFAS in this region and identify how water circulation influences the mix of contaminants in the Arctic Ocean. The researchers deployed passive sampling systems, which took up PFAS into a sorbent-filled microporous membrane from water as it flowed past. They put the systems at three locations in the Fram Strait, and at four depths in each location. After a year, the team retrieved the systems and measured the collected PFAS using liquid chromatography-mass spectrometry.The researchers overserved that:
- Ten PFAS were detected in at least one passive sampler, however, one substance detected in the area by previous research teams wasn't among them.
- Two compounds known as PFOA and PFOS, which are being phased out, were present at the highest levels. Newer, short-chain PFAS were also routinely present.
- Surprisingly, several PFAS were found in water below 3,000 feet deep. The team suggests that these compounds could have gotten there by attaching to particles as they fell to the seafloor.
The team calculated the amounts of PFAS flowing in each direction through the Fram Strait. Their data showed that in one year, around 123 tons traveled into the Arctic Ocean and about 110 tons moved into the Atlantic Ocean. According to the researchers, these values are the largest of any pollutant reported in the strait, demonstrating how significant the back-and-forth circulation of PFAS is in the Arctic Ocean.
The first assessment of toxic heavy metal pollution in the Southern Hemisphere over the last 2,000 years - Human activity, from burning fossil fuels and fireplaces to the contaminated dust produced by mining, alters Earth's atmosphere in countless ways. Records of these impacts over time are preserved in everlasting polar ice that serves as a sort of time capsule, allowing scientists and historians to link Earth's history with that of human societies. In a new study, ice cores from Antarctica show that lead and other toxic heavy metals linked to mining activities polluted the Southern Hemisphere as early as the 13th century. The work is published in the journal Science of the Total Environment. "Seeing evidence that early Andean cultures 800 years ago, and later Spanish Colonial mining and metallurgy, appear to have caused detectable lead pollution 9,000 km away in Antarctica is quite surprising," said Joe McConnell, Ph.D., research professor of hydrology at Desert Research Institute (DRI) and lead author of the study. The research was led by McConnell's team at DRI along with collaborators in Norway, Austria, and Germany, as well as in Florida. It is the first time that scientists have assessed human impacts on lead pollution in Antarctica as far back as 2,000 years ago. It is also the first detailed assessment of thallium, bismuth, and cadmium pollution. In addition to lead, these heavy metals (save for bismuth at low levels) are considered highly toxic and harmful to human and ecosystem health. The team found that the first increase in heavy metal pollutants—specifically lead—started around the year 1200, coincident with the establishment of urban communities by the Chimú people on the north coast of South America. The first assessment of toxic heavy metal pollution in the Southern Hemisphere over the last 2,000 years Graphical summary of the study data showing the increase in heavy metal pollution found in five East Antarctic ice cores over time. The heatmap in the upper left corner depicts the simulated flow of heavy metal pollution from Potosi in South America throughout the Southern Hemisphere and to Antarctica. Ice core collection sites are shown as cyan circles. Credit: DRI "These settlements required vast amounts of silver and other metals obtained through mining," said University of South Florida archaeologist and study co-author, Charles Stanish, Ph.D. Lead is often found in silver ores, and samples of lake sediments in the Potosí region of Bolivia also suggest lead emissions throughout the 12th and 13th centuries, consistent with the Antarctic ice records. More lasting and consistent pollution began soon after the 1532 arrival of Spanish settlers in South America, when Potosí became the primary supply of silver for the Spanish Empire and the largest single source of silver in the world. The ice records show a marked decline in lead pollution between approximately 1585 to 1591, when severe epidemics ravaged Andean communities. The team was able to compare silver registrations at the Colonial Mint in Potosí to the ice core data, finding that they lined up with the pollution drop in the Antarctic. "It's pretty amazing to think that a 16th century epidemic in Bolivia altered pollution in Antarctica and throughout the Southern Hemisphere," "Although Antarctica's remote location thousands of kilometers from South America and Australia means that only trace amounts of pollutants are deposited and preserved in the ice, the precisely dated, year-by-year records can give insight into how and when human pollutants impacted the entire hemisphere," added co-author and atmospheric modeler, Andreas Stohl, Ph.D., of the University of Vienna.
Biden admin appears to fabricate paper trail in pursuit of major chemical plant shutdown: court docs -- The Biden administration appears to have intervened in a supposedly nonpartisan science review, manufacturing a paper trail in support of its environmental justice efforts targeting a major chemical plant, according to court filings reviewed by Fox News Digital.In stunning testimony late last year, Michael Morton — who serves as the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Region 6 science liaison to the EPA Office of Research and Development (ORD) in Washington, D.C. — admitted that he didn't author a key July 2021 email sent from his email address. That email called off a scientific review of health risks associated with chloroprene emissions which are at the center of an ongoing federal lawsuit with vast economic implications. "I didn't write that," Morton told lawyers for synthetics manufacturer Denka Performance Elastomer (DPE) during a deposition in November. "I didn't say that. For – for that part, I didn't – I don't know that, so I don't know who wrote that," he added when pressed on the email.Morton's testimony and revelations from additional information made public in recent months may ultimately derail the Biden administration's lawsuit against DPE which, if successful, could threaten the future operations of the company's major manufacturing facility in LaPlace, Louisiana, and further set a precedent broadly threatening the multi-billion-dollar U.S. petrochemical industry. In February 2023, the Department of Justice filed a federal lawsuit against DPE on behalf of EPA, seeking to compel the chemical maker's LaPlace facility — the so-called Pontchartrain Works Site which represents the only U.S. plant to produce neoprene, a synthetic rubber common in military equipment, wetsuits and medical technology — to reduce emissions of chloroprene. Chloroprene is a liquid raw material emitted during neoprene manufacturing. According to the lawsuit, the plant's emissions pose a cancer risk to residents in Saint John the Baptist Parish, Louisiana, and therefore present an "imminent and substantial endangerment to public health and welfare." "When I visited Saint John the Baptist Parish during my first Journey to Justice tour, I pledged to the community that EPA would take strong action to protect the health and safety of families from harmful chloroprene emissions from the Denka facility," EPA Administrator Michael Regan said after the lawsuit was filed, adding that DPE hasn't "moved far enough or fast enough" to reduce emissions. Less than one month later, the Justice Department filed a motion for preliminary injunction in the case, essentially asking the court to enforce a shutdown of DPE's neoprene facility if the company failed to immediately implement substantial emissions reductions. Assistant Attorney General Todd Kim said the motion "shows our determination to address environmental justice concerns." DPE said in a response motion months later that the federal government's actions are "tantamount to a shutdown order that would have catastrophic consequences for DPE," adding that it would lead to "complete loss of revenue streams, substantial loss of work force, supply chain disruptions and contractual impacts, and regulatory challenges." The company also characterized the Biden administration's efforts against it as politically driven, unsupported by real-world science, and outside its legal authority under the Clean Air Act. DPE pointed to how its LaPlace facility has sharply curbed its chloroprene emissions and complied with environmental permits. DPE also pointed to Louisiana Tumor Registry data showing that St. John the Baptist Parish, the region where its neoprene facility is located, has recorded one of the lowest cancer rates of any region in the state. And, notably, DPE has criticized EPA for basing its lawsuit largely on a study the agency published in 2010 concluding chloroprene is "likely to be carcinogenic to humans." That study, which itself cites 25-year-old studies of female mice, led to the strict emissions standard of 0.2 micrograms of chloroprene per cubic meter air that the EPA is seeking to enforce on DPE's facility in LaPlace. DPE and Lousiana lawmakers have for years sought EPA action to reassess that tight standard, arguing in favor of additional study and scientific review, arguing the 2010 study overestimated chloroprene's cancer risk to humans. The EPA appeared to relent in April 2021 when its Region 6 branch based in Texas, but covering Louisiana and other southern states, nominated chloroprene for a review to revisit its assessment of the chemical's health risks. But EPA's ORD office eventually refused to pursue the review, citing the July 2021 email from Morton, the Region 6 science liaison who recently testified he didn't pen that email.
State AGs Blast Biden, Wall Street Plan To Sell Rights To America's Public Lands The current plan by the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) to create Natural Asset Companies (NACs), which would buy up land rights throughout America, faced heavy criticism from 25 state attorneys general, who in a Jan. 9 letter urged the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to reject the concept.“What is happening here is clear,” the AGs wrote. “The Commission and the NYSE are seeking to implement a radical environmental agenda through the rulemaking process (and outside the legislative process).”“This type of decision, particularly given its vast economic consequences, must be left to Congress and not the Commission or the NYSE,” they stated.The idea for NACs was developed by an activist eco-organization called the Intrinsic Exchange Group (IEG), funded in part by the Rockefeller Foundation, in partnership with the NYSE. NACs would pool investors’ money from around the world to buy the rights to public and private land in the United States and limit its use to “sustainable” endeavors.Currently, much of the land under federal control is intended for public use, which includes farming, ranching, hunting, fishing, drilling, mining, hiking, and camping, according to its designation by Congress. In many western states, including Idaho, Alaska, and Utah, more than 60 percent of the land is government owned. About 85 percent of the land in Nevada is government owned.“On the spectrum of serious ESG threats, this is one of the most concerning, and least understood,” Utah Attorney General Sean Reyes, who co-authored the letter, told The Epoch Times. “I don’t think most people in America even know about it; it was done very quietly.“There are a number of interests—big government, extreme environmental activism,” he said. “It’s about power, money, and who controls what can happen on these lands.”The proposal to alter the NYSE’s governing rules to allow this new type of company on the exchange currently sits with the SEC, awaiting approval. The original public comment period was set at an unusually short 21 days, running through the Christmas holiday until Jan. 2.After protests from 32 Republicans in Congress and 22 red-state financial officers, the SEC extended the comment period until Jan. 18. Anyone wishing to comment can do so at https://www.sec.gov/rules/sro/sr-nyse-2023-09.
Dual atmospheric rivers forecast to bring heavy rainfall to Eastern and Midwest U.S. - (video) Heavy rainfall, snow, and strong winds have battered most of Italy over the past couple of days, culminating in a deadly snow avalanche in the Formazza Valley of the Piedmont region.Italy has been engulfed by severe weather over the past few days, with heavy rainfall, snow, and strong winds causing widespread disruptions and damage. The conditions led to a tragic avalanche in the Formazza Valley (Verbano-Cusio-Ossola Province, north-eastern Piedmont Region) on January 7, claiming the lives of two individuals.The avalanche struck at a height of approximately 2.2 km (7 200 feet) in the Val Formazza area, a known spot for its scenic beauty and mountainous terrain.CNSAS, an Alpine rescue group, reported that one body was found buried under the snow, while the other was recovered from a nearby lake following the avalanche. Despite challenging weather conditions and strong winds, a specialist rescue team, assisted by a trained dog, was dispatched to the scene by helicopter.The victims were identified as a 30-year-old woman and a 53-year-old man, both from the Lombardy region in northern Italy. They had been navigating the mountainous terrain with the help of snowshoes at the time of the incident.The weather forecast indicates that moderate snow will continue to affect parts of Piedmont, while moderate to heavy rainfall is expected to sweep across most of southern Italy, particularly in Sardinia and Sicily over the next 24 hours.These regions are under orange warnings due to the forecasted strong winds, urging residents and visitors to exercise caution and stay updated on the latest weather alerts.
Powerful East Coast storm leaves 5 fatalities, nearly 1 million power outages, U.S. - (3 videos) A severe storm system struck the Eastern U.S. on January 9 and 10, 2024, resulting in coastal flooding, damaging winds, nearly a million power outages from New England to the mid-Atlantic states, and the tragic loss of at least five lives.As of 15:20 UTC on January 10, the storm has claimed at least five lives, with nearly 400 000 customers still without power. The worst affected state is currently New York with 140 000 customers without power, followed by Pennsylvania with 95 000, New Jersey with 55 000, Michigan with 52 000 and North Carolina with 48 000.Despite the end of rain in the Northeast, rising river levels now pose a major flooding threat, particularly along the Pawtuxet River in Rhode Island and the Pompton and Passaic rivers in New Jersey.Wisconsin and Michigan reported fatal car crashes due to adverse weather conditions, while in Cottonwood, Alabama, an 81-year-old woman tragically died in a tornado-related incident. Severe weather also claimed lives in Claremont, North Carolina, and Jonesboro, Georgia.Since January 8, at least 23 tornadoes have been reported across Texas, Alabama, Georgia, Florida, South Carolina, and North Carolina. The Midwest experienced up to 38 cm (15 inches) of snow, while the Northeast saw winds reaching 105 km/h (65 mph). Florida witnessed several injuries, and over 2 000 people in Brooklyn, New York City, were evacuated from tent shelters. The storm led to significant travel disruptions, with at least 1 465 flights canceled on January 9 and 9 135 delayed.In Connecticut, the emergency management in New London County reported a potential dam failure at Fitchville Pond along the Yantic River, triggering life-threatening flash flooding warnings in downstream areas, including Fitchville. The Delaware River in Philadelphia broke its all-time record crest, previously set during Superstorm Sandy.Governors in New Jersey and Maryland declared states of emergency and preparedness, respectively, in anticipation of the storm. Some school districts in the affected areas even dismissed classes early.Another cross-country weather system, which has already dumped up to 76 cm (30 inches) of snow in the Pacific Northwest, is en route to the East Coast. This system is expected to move through the Rocky Mountains and Sierra Nevada, leaving several feet of snow, before shifting east to potentially produce another severe weather outbreak, including tornadoes, from Texas to the Carolinas.Meanwhile, a potent Arctic front drops southward from Canada on Wednesday and this will herald the arrival of the coldest temperatures so far this season for the Northern Plains, with subzero lows becoming a reality for Montana and the Dakotas, and highs remaining below freezing as far south as Oklahoma by Friday, January 12.
Florida State Guard activated as destructive tornadoes strike panhandle region - (6 videos) The Florida panhandle was hit by at least three tornadoes on the morning of Tuesday, January 9, 2024, as reported by the National Weather Service (NWS), leading to widespread damage and prompting school closures across several counties. A series of severe storms swept through the Florida panhandle on Tuesday morning, January 9, 2024, resulting in at least three reported tornadoes. The National Weather Service (NWS) has been issuing continuous watches and warnings in response to the severe weather conditions. These storms, associated with a powerful low and an accompanying cold front, have caused significant damage in the region, including tilting homes and flattening RVs. YouTube video According to Ryan Truchelut, chief meteorologist at WeatherTiger, the severe weather impacts began Monday night and are expected to peak Tuesday morning in the Panhandle, continuing through Tuesday evening in the peninsula. The storm system is bringing a mix of potentially damaging winds, coastal flooding, tornadoes, and heavy rainfall. In preparation for the severe weather, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis activated the Florida State Guard on Monday. This proactive measure, announced in a news release from the governor’s office, aims to address the anticipated adverse weather conditions across the state. The NWS confirmed several tornadoes in the Panhandle on Tuesday morning, including near De Funiak Springs and Panama City, and another that crossed Interstate 10 near Marianna. While official confirmation of their strength and intensity is pending from the NWS, residents have taken to social media to share videos and pictures of the destruction left in the wake of these tornadoes. YouTube video YouTube video YouTube video YouTube video “A very potent mid-upper level trough over the Central U.S. is becoming negatively tilted and this is allowing for rapid surface cyclogenesis over the Midwest and Ohio Valley on Tuesday,” NWS forecaster Hamrick noted. “The result will likely be a sub-980 mb surface low over Michigan by late Tuesday evening/night, and this low will continue lifting toward the northeast across southern Ontario and into Quebec by Wednesday afternoon.” A strong cold front trailing south from the parent low will exit the East Coast overnight Tuesday, January 9 across the Mid-Atlantic and into early Wednesday morning (LT), January 10 for the Northeast U.S. Widespread hazardous weather impacts are expected for the eastern third of the U.S. in association with this low pressure system, and numerous warnings and advisories are now in effect from the local NWS forecast offices. “One of the big things making weather headlines will be the widespread expanse of heavy rain capable of producing flooding from the Florida Panhandle all the way north to southern Maine,” Hamrick said. In addition, high wind warnings are in effect for many areas near the coast and storm warnings for the open waters, and power outages are a real possibility. “The strongest winds will be along the Atlantic coast and over the ridges of the Appalachians,” according to AccuWeather senior meteorologist Alex Sosnowski. “Tree and property damage are likely. Large tree limbs may come crashing down on sidewalks, vehicles, homes and businesses without notice. Trash cans and other unsecured items in neighborhoods may become projectiles. Power outages could be long-lasting, especially in remote, heavily wooded areas.” Severe thunderstorms are also expected from northern Florida to the coastal plain of the Carolinas, where a favorable combination of kinematics and instability will fuel intense storms capable of producing damaging winds and tornadoes.
Florida’s Bay County hit by first EF3 tornado since 1970s –video - The National Weather Service has confirmed that the tornado that struck Panama City Beach, Florida, on January 9, 2024, was an EF3, marking the first occurrence of such a severe tornado in Bay County in over half a century. On January 9, 2024, at 05:31 CST, a devastating tornado hit Panama City Beach, specifically in the Lower Grand Lagoon area along Spyglass Drive. The National Weather Service has estimated the tornado’s peak winds at approximately 225 km/h (140 mph), making it an EF3 on the Enhanced Fujita Scale. This event is notably the first EF3 tornado to hit Bay County in more than 50 years. The tornado carved a destructive path of approximately 8.37 km (5.2 miles) and remained on the ground for 8 minutes. The extent of the damage was extensive, with several homes significantly damaged, including one beachfront property that was completely obliterated. This particular instance of complete destruction was key in determining the tornado’s EF3 rating. panama city florida ef3 tornado - preliminary damage survey results As the tornado continued its northeastward trajectory, it inflicted heavy damage on homes and businesses along Thomas Drive, including two apartment buildings that were severely impacted. The EF3 rating was further substantiated by the significant structural failure at a large boat storage facility. After moving across Grand Lagoon and through the Bay Point Golf Club, the tornado caused additional harm to homes before crossing Saint Andrew Bay. The damage pattern in Panama City, post-crossing the bay, was more sporadic and less intense, consistent with an EF1 intensity rating. The tornado eventually dissipated shortly after traversing West 23rd Street.
National Weather Service issues warning of ‘bitter cold’ across US --The National Weather Service (NWS) issued a warning that a bitter cold arctic blast will move in across the United States over the weekend, adding to an already stormy January across the country.Arctic temperatures will move in from the West, affecting the northern Rocky Mountains and northern Plains beginning Thursday evening into Friday.The cold temperatures will move south and east through the Plains and Midwest over the weekend, where temperatures could reach daily cold records in the South-central U.S. on Sunday, Monday and Tuesday, the NWS predicted.Parts of Texas and the interior Southeast could experience wind chills below zero early next week. Over the weekend, wind chills in the Rockies and northern Plains will be below negative 40 degrees.“This will pose an increased risk of frostbite on exposed skin and hypothermia,” the NWS said in an advisory, adding that if people must travel, they should do so with a cold survival kit.The cold air will usher in another storm system across the West on Friday. Snow with “considerable impacts” is predicted in Oregon, Idaho, Nevada and Utah.As the storm system moves east, it will likely bring snow to the interior south through the Mid-Atlantic areas Sunday into Monday, and it has the potential to bring some to the Northeast Tuesday and Wednesday, the NWS predicted.The polar vortex air typically stays 15 miles to 30 miles above the Earth, but last week there was a minor disruption increasing the chances for cold air outbreaks, Amy Butler, an atmospheric scientist at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, told Nexstar, The Hill’s parent company, in a statement.Blizzard conditions with 6-to-12-inch snowfall totals may be headed for the Midwest, and the Southern U.S. is bracing for potential tornadoes, The Hill previously reported. The Southwest Power Pool, which oversees electric reliability in 14 states, has declared multiple advisories for energy operators ahead of the storm, which may bring a “higher than normal risk of outages.”
Midwest braces for blizzard with risk of tornadoes in South -Every state in the country has weather advisories this weekend as a major storm moves across the U.S., with the Midwest bracing for an incoming blizzard and dangerously cold temperatures, and the South preparing for tornadoes and power outages.Blizzard and winter storm warnings have been issued across parts of the West and much of the Midwest beginning Friday, as arctic temperatures move in bringing bitter cold and snow. Cold air will sweep across the West on Friday, bringing snow with “considerable impacts” in Oregon, Idaho, Nevada and Utah, the National Weather Service (NWS) advised. Wind chills in the Rockies and northern Plains will be below negative 40 degrees.High winds are expected to increase throughout the weekend and mix with bitter cold and several inches of snow to create life-threatening conditions in Iowa, just days before the Iowa caucuses are set to begin.Significant snowfall is also expected in Wisconsin and Michigan. Green Bay and parts of Wisconsin along Lake Michigan could get 10 inches to 15 inches of snow and strong winds. The NWS advised people to consider postponing travel Friday and Saturday until the stormpasses and said if people must travel, use extreme caution.Peak snowfall rates in eastern Michigan are expected to be up to an inch per hour Friday evening, with some areas bracing for up to 6 inches total.Flights have been halted at Chicago’s O’Hare International Airport due to the weather, delaying travel by an average of two hours.As the storm system moves east, it will bring snow to the interior south and mid-Atlantic regions Sunday into Monday and may bring some to the Northeast next week, the NWS predicts. High winds and coastal flooding is also a concern for the East, just days after another storm passed through.Parts of Texas and the interior Southeast could experience wind chills below zero early next week. The Southwest Power Pool, which oversees electric reliability in 14 states in the region,declared advisories for energy operators ahead of the storm that may bring a “higher than normal risk of outages.”While the storm will bring heavy snow and cold to parts of the country, the warm side of the storm system will bring damaging winds and tornadoes to the South, The Washington Post predicts. A tornado watch was in effect for parts of Louisiana, Arkansas, Mississippi and Tennessee.Parts of Mississippi, north of Jackson, are under an enhanced risk of tornadoes with widespread damaging winds of 60 mph to 80 mph. Numerous downed trees and power lines are expected, the NWS predicts.The warnings come just days after Florida issued a state of emergency for 49 counties as a storm produced wind gusts and tornadoes exceeding 70 mph.
Record rainfall leads to widespread flooding, evacuations in Victoria, Australia - Following heavy rain over the weekend, major flood warnings have been issued across Victoria, prompting residents of Yea, Seymour, and Rochester to evacuate as authorities and emergency services respond to widespread flooding and record rainfall. Residents of regional Victorian towns Yea, Seymour, and Rochester have been told to evacuate following major flood warnings issued due to heavy rain over the weekend. The state’s north town of Rochester received about 125 mm (4.9 inches) of rain on January 7, breaking a 120-year daily rainfall record. Flood levels around the township are expected to reach 114.8 m (376.6 feet) by early Tuesday, January 9 — slightly lower than the devastating 2022 floods but still significant. In Seymour, the river level is anticipated to exceed the 1993 flood level. Central Victoria’s Heathcote recorded 180 mm (7 inches) in 24 hours — more than three months’ worth of rain in just 24 hours. Redesdale recorded more than 117 mm (4.6 inches) in 24 hours, setting a new daily record for any month since 1901, while Bendigo recorded 92 mm (3.6 inches) of rain, breaking a 90-year record. The State Emergency Service (SES) has received 1 200 calls for assistance, many related to home damage. 38 rescues were performed in 24 hours, mostly involving individuals who drove through floodwaters. Residents in several Yea streets were told it was too late to evacuate and were advised to shelter in the highest location possible. Relief centers have been established in Bendigo, Seymour, Yea, and Echuca to support those displaced or affected by the floods. Looking ahead, the flooding is expected to move north and northeast, affecting towns like Kialla, Mooroopna, and Shepparton with moderate to severe flooding. The King Valley and nearby Wangaratta in the north-east, as well as Loddon-Avoca River catchment areas in the north-west, are on alert for potential flooding. Minor flood warnings are in place for the Yarra and Maribyrnong Rivers in Melbourne, and a landslide has cut off Mount Dandenong Tourist Road in Ferny Creek. Victorian Premier Jacinta Allan has urged residents in flood-affected areas to heed emergency advice, stay updated through the Vic Emergency app or website, and prepare for recovery efforts as the weather clears.
Congo River peaks at 60-year record, causing massive casualties in DRC and Congo Republic - (2 videos) The Congo River has surged to its highest level in over six decades, unleashing devastating floods in both the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and the Congo Republic. The floods have claimed more than 300 lives in recent months and affected hundreds of thousands of households. The Congo River has risen to 6.20 m (20.34 feet) above sea level as of January 10, 2024, nearing the record high of 6.26 m (20.54 feet) set in 1961. This surge has resulted in widespread flooding throughout the DRC and the Congo Republic, causing significant human and property losses. In the DRC, the impact has been particularly severe in the northeastern region and the capital, Kinshasa. Heavy rainfall has led to floods and flash floods, resulting in at least 300 fatalities and affecting nearly 300 000 households. Kinshasa, densely populated and situated along the riverbanks, has seen several neighborhoods inundated, with tens of thousands of houses destroyed. YouTube video The neighboring Congo Republic is also grappling with the crisis. Unusually heavy rainfall has led to flooding that requires urgent humanitarian assistance for over 336 000 people. Health facilities and schools have been damaged, and vast areas of farmland submerged. According to the WHO, the floods have destroyed or damaged 34 health facilities, 120 schools and more than 64 000 houses in the affected areas. The capital, Brazzaville, facing Kinshasa across the river, is among the eight departments severely affected, with at least 17 reported fatalities and over 60 000 households impacted. Experts indicate that the current rainfall in the region is twice the average of the 2022–2023 season. The Ubangi River, a significant tributary of the Congo River, has reached unprecedented levels. In both countries, the floods have resulted in the destruction or damage of numerous health facilities, schools, and homes, escalating the need for humanitarian aid. Health risks in the affected areas are mounting, with potential outbreaks of water-borne diseases like cholera, and vector-borne diseases such as malaria and dengue. The situation also poses threats to maternal and child health nutrition, increases the risk of sexual and gender-based violence, and exacerbates food insecurity. The continuity of care for chronic diseases and mental health support remains a critical concern.
Heavy to record-breaking snowfall hitting Japan, including earthquake-hit Ishikawa Prefecture - A powerful M7.6 earthquake centered in the Noto region of Ishikawa Prefecture, central Japan, on January 1, 2024, was followed by intense snowfall a week later, creating very hard conditions for survivors and complicating rescue efforts. On January 8, authorities reported 161 fatalities caused by the earthquake and 305 people missing. Areas affected by the recent M7.6 earthquake in central Japan’s Ishikawa Prefecture are now facing intense snowfall, creating additional challenges for survivors and rescue teams. The Japan Meteorological Agency and authorities are urging people to take extra caution, particularly with quake-damaged buildings at risk of collapse under the weight of the snow, and to stay warm amid the severe cold to prevent hypothermia. Significant snow is also affecting the wider Hokuriku region as well as Niigata Prefecture. As of Monday morning, January 8, snow accumulation in Suzu City of Ishikawa Prefecture reached 13 cm (5.1 inches), with nearby Nanao City and Wajima City recording 11 and 9 cm (4.3 and 3.5 inches), respectively. Intense snow is expected to continue mainly in the mountainous areas of the Hokuriku region and Niigata Prefecture, with flatlands also anticipating heavy snow. The cities of Otaru and Okishi in Hokkaido recorded 68 cm (27 inches) of snow in just 12 hours, setting a new all-time record. An all-time snowfall record was also reported in Rankoshi, Hokkaido with 59 cm (23 inches) in 12 hours. Record-breaking heavy snow is hitting parts of Japan. The earthquake-hit Ishikawa Prefecture is experiencing intense snow, creating harsh conditions for survivors and rescuers. As of Monday, 168 deaths have been confirmed, with 323 people still unaccounted for. pic.twitter.com/fRwnG860xf — Sayaka Mori (@sayakasofiamori) January 8, 2024 In Ishikawa Prefecture, the forecast for the next 24 hours includes up to 10 cm (4 inches) of snow in mountainous areas and 5 cm (2 inches) in flatlands. Meanwhile, Niigata Prefecture could see as much as 30 cm (11.8 inches) in mountainous regions and 10 cm (3.9 inches) in flat areas. Toyama Prefecture is also bracing for 10 to 20 cm (3.9 – 7.9 inches) of snowfall. These weather conditions pose a variety of potential hazards, including disruptions to transportation, damage to agricultural facilities, snow pileups on electrical wires and trees, and icy roads. Overnight lows in Wajima City and other quake-stricken areas dropped to around 0 °C (32 °F) Celsius on Monday. Aftershocks continue in the Noto region and surrounding areas, with over 1 200 quakes of intensity 1 or greater on Japan’s scale recorded from January 1 through January 8, 2024. Authorities are advising people to remain vigilant as there is potential for further quakes with a maximum seismic intensity of 7.
Freezing temperatures hit flooded farms in northern Germany - As northern Germany welcomes frost following weeks of rain and flooding, farmers and authorities are grappling with the mixed effects on dykes and flooded lands, amid constrained government budgets for relief and future flood prevention. After enduring weeks of rain and widespread flooding, northern Germany is now experiencing the onset of frost, as forecasted by the German Weather Service (DWD). While the drop in temperatures might offer some respite by firming up the overloaded dykes, experts caution against the long-term damage to already flooded houses and farmlands. Anne Rickmeyer of the Lower Saxony Water Management, Coastal Defence and Nature Conservation Agency (NLWKN) explained that frost could potentially stabilize dykes, making them more robust against water. However, if warm water is already pressing against the dykes, the frost won’t penetrate the submerged sections, rendering it ineffective in those areas. Read more: Lower Saxony battles severe flooding, extensive agricultural damage, Germany The arrival of frost presents a peculiar problem for farmers who have been battling the floodwaters for weeks. Normally, frost benefits the soil by loosening it up, preparing it for spring absorption. But with the land submerged, the soil can’t regenerate, becoming too tight and unable to accommodate more water in the coming season. This can negatively impact crop yields and exacerbate flooding issues. In addition, the freezing of floodwaters can severely damage buildings and infrastructure. As water expands by 10% when frozen, the resulting pressure can destroy materials and structural components, warns Norbert Gebbeken of the Bundeswehr University in Munich. The root of the recent devastating flooding lies in historical alterations to the landscape, particularly the draining of over 70% of wetlands along rivers, as noted by Christian Wolter from the Leibniz Institute for Freshwater Ecology and Inland Fisheries in Berlin. These changes, coupled with the straightening of waterways, have accelerated the flow of water downstream, overwhelming regions with minimal time to react. Future flood mitigation efforts face financial challenges, with Germany’s coalition government, including the Green Party, recently cutting climate protection funding amidst budget constraints. Further, Justice Minister Marco Buschmann has ruled out lifting the “debt brake” to allocate additional funds for affected farmers.
Deadly avalanche strikes Italy’s Piedmont region - Heavy rainfall, snow, and strong winds have battered most of Italy over the past couple of days, culminating in a deadly snow avalanche in the Formazza Valley of the Piedmont region. Italy has been engulfed by severe weather over the past few days, with heavy rainfall, snow, and strong winds causing widespread disruptions and damage. The conditions led to a tragic avalanche in the Formazza Valley (Verbano-Cusio-Ossola Province, north-eastern Piedmont Region) on January 7, claiming the lives of two individuals. The avalanche struck at a height of approximately 2.2 km (7 200 feet) in the Val Formazza area, a known spot for its scenic beauty and mountainous terrain. CNSAS, an Alpine rescue group, reported that one body was found buried under the snow, while the other was recovered from a nearby lake following the avalanche. Despite challenging weather conditions and strong winds, a specialist rescue team, assisted by a trained dog, was dispatched to the scene by helicopter. The victims were identified as a 30-year-old woman and a 53-year-old man, both from the Lombardy region in northern Italy. They had been navigating the mountainous terrain with the help of snowshoes at the time of the incident. YouTube video The weather forecast indicates that moderate snow will continue to affect parts of Piedmont, while moderate to heavy rainfall is expected to sweep across most of southern Italy, particularly in Sardinia and Sicily over the next 24 hours. These regions are under orange warnings due to the forecasted strong winds, urging residents and visitors to exercise caution and stay updated on the latest weather alerts.
Land uplift measurements indicate rising eruption risk in Svartsengi area, Iceland - The Icelandic Meteorological Office (IMO) warns of an increased risk of eruption in the Reykjanes area, following their analysis on January 9, 2024, which reveals magma accumulation beneath Svartsengi similar to levels prior to the December 18 eruption. Recent seismic activity and land uplift measurements have heightened concerns about a potential volcanic eruption in the Reykjanes Peninsula. The latest report by IMO indicates a substantial accumulation of magma beneath Svartsengi, reaching levels comparable to those that triggered the eruption on December 18, 2023. Earthquake activity, primarily concentrated between Hagafell and Stóra Skógfell near the center of the intrusion, continues to mirror patterns observed in recent days. Additionally, there is ongoing seismic activity in Fagradalsfjall, persisting since December 18. A significant indicator of the looming threat is the ongoing land uplift in the Svartsengi area. Data from the GPS station SENG shows a steady trend of elevation increase since the December 18 eruption. The current rate of uplift is approximately 5 mm (0.2 inches) per day, resulting in the area now being around 5 cm (2 inches) higher than before the December 18 eruption last year. Relative measurements from the GPS station SENG in Svartsengi October 23 - January 9, 2024 Relative measurements from the GPS station SENG in Svartsengi from the beginning of October 2023 to present, displaying north, east, and vertical components (top, middle, bottom). The bottom curve shows land uplift in millimeters, with today’s measurement indicated by a green dot. Credit: IMO On January 5, IMO released an updated hazard map (below), with plans for reassessment on January 12. This map provides a hazard-based appraisal of the Grindavík – Svartsengi region, incorporating the latest monitoring data, seismic activity, ground deformation, and geodetic modeling results. The assessment also evaluates the likelihood of volcanic hazards in each of the six zones depicted on the map.
Strongest earthquake since 1991 and glacial outburst flood at Grímsvötn volcano, Iceland - --A glacial outburst flood has begun at Grímsvötn volcano, located beneath the Vatnajökull glacier in Iceland. In addition, the volcano was hit by a M4.3 earthquake on January 11 — the strongest since measurements began in 1991. Glacial outburst floods are known to increase the likelihood of volcanic eruptions. As a result, the Aviation Color Code for the volcano has been raised to Yellow. A brief seismic swarm at Grímsvötn was recorded by the seismic network beginning at 16:00 UTC on January 4, 2024, prompting the Icelandic Meteorological Office (IMO) to raise the Aviation Color Code to Yellow (the second level on a four-color scale). Since activity did not escalate on January 5 and only one M0.6 earthquake was detected, the Aviation Color Code was lowered to Green. Glacial outburst flood was confirmed by IMO on January 11, following M4.3 earthquake at 06:54 UTC. This is the largest earthquake at the volcano since measurements began in 1991. The earthquake is believed to be a result of pressure relief following the start of the glacier flood. The volcano has experienced similar floods in October 2022 and late 2021. The current amount of water in Grímsvötn, estimated at 0.29 km³, is half more than the 2022 run but less than the volume in late 2021. Professor Magnús Tumi Guðmundsson noted that while water levels have risen in Gígjukvísl river, the event is comparable to a small or medium-sized glacial outburst flood. map of estimated glacial outbreak flood from grimsvotn iceland Due to difficulties in contacting the Earth Science Institute’s GPS device on the ice sheet, estimating the flow speed from the lakes is challenging. However, it’s anticipated that the maximum flow from Grímsvötn will occur around or shortly after the upcoming weekend, with the peak flow in Gígjukvísl at Þjóðveg 1 highway reaching about 1 – 2 days later. The maximum flow is not expected to exceed 1 000 m³/s and should not impact structures like roads and bridges. Historically, volcanic eruptions in Grímsvötn have followed glacial floods, with the last such event occurring in 2004. However, eruptions without preceding floods are more common, with 12 eruptions since 2004 not linked to floods. The last volcanic eruption in Grímsvötn was in 2011, unrelated to a glacial run.
New insights reveal Earth’s inner core exhibits 8.5-year wobble - Researchers from China have confirmed an 8.5-year Inner Core Wobble (ICW) in Earth’s polar motion and length-of-day variations, revealing a static tilt of about 0.17 degrees between the inner core and mantle, challenging long-standing assumptions about Earth’s internal dynamics. The Earth’s inner core, a solid sphere primarily composed of iron and nickel spanning about 1 200 km (746 miles) in radius, has long been a subject of scientific intrigue. Now, a groundbreaking study published in Nature Communications has confirmed the existence of an 8.5-year Inner Core Wobble (ICW) in Earth’s polar motion and length-of-day variations, offering new insights into the Earth’s internal dynamics and density distribution. Researchers, led by Professor Hao Ding of Wuhan University, embarked on this exploratory journey inspired by unconventional density structures revealed in Earth’s free oscillation. They discovered an 8.5-year signal in polar motion (PM) and length-of-day variations (ΔLOD), which led to the current study. This motion is characterized by a periodic oscillation of the inner core’s figure axis, influencing both the Earth’s rotation and its magnetic field. The study utilized a detailed analysis of PM and ΔLOD of Earth’s rotation, identifying the 8.5-year signal as the manifestation of the ICW. This discovery comes after meticulously excluding external excitation sources such as atmospheric, oceanic, and hydrological factors. The consistent presence of this signal in both PM and ΔLOD strongly suggests a deep connection between the ICW and Earth’s rotational dynamics. To understand the 8.5-year signal detected in PM and ΔLOD, the researchers examined the amplitudes of the ICW in both, leading to the inference of a static tilt angle of 0.17 degrees between the rotation axis of the inner core and the mantle. This tilt offers valuable constraints for the 3D density model of the mantle and questions traditional assumptions about the Earth’s interior, suggesting potential deviations from the previously believed perfect spherical form. The periodic motion of the ICW indicates a density jump of about 0.52 g/cm³ at the inner core boundary, signifying a noticeable change in density at the boundary between the inner core and its surrounding layers. This finding has broader implications, as the static tilt may lead to changes in the shape of the liquid core, affecting the fluid motion and, consequently, the geomagnetic field. The revelation of Earth’s ICW and its associated static tilt challenges the conventional understanding of Earth’s rotation and internal dynamics. This study not only adds a new chapter to our understanding of Earth’s geophysical processes but also opens up new avenues for scientific inquiry into the planet’s deepest secrets.
Earth's hottest year: Global temperatures neared the critical 1.5-degree warming limit last year - During the hottest year on record, the global average surface temperature fell just shy of the 1.5-degree warming limit under the Paris climate agreement. The climate of 2023 was the hottest seen in at least 125,000 years; for the first time in instrument records, some daily global average temperatures went well above the other Paris guardrail of 2°C. Data released Tuesday morning from Europe's Copernicus Climate Change Service lays out just how many significant climate records were surpassed during 2023, amplified mainly by burning fossil fuels for energy. Last year's heat raises questions among scientists about whether climate change has accelerated or even passed a tipping point. It started with a cooling La Niña event in the tropical Pacific Ocean and ended with a strong El Niño. El Niño events serve as added warming influences on top of human-caused climate change. But not even El Niño could fully explain the unusual warmth of 2023. Neither do other factors, such as the 2022 eruption of the Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai volcano in the South Pacific. That sent massive amounts of water vapor into the stratosphere that could be adding to short-term warming. One other suspect is the reduction of aerosol emissions from global marine shipping, but this too is thought to have contributed only a small amount to climate change during 2023. The year had a global average temperature that was 1.48°C (2.6°F) above preindustrial levels during 1850-1900. Last year as a whole crushed 2016, which was the previous record in Copernicus' ERA5 temperature data set, coming in at 0.17 °C (0.30°F) above 2016's global annual average. June through December were the warmest such months on record, in some cases by staggering margins that themselves set records. July and August were the warmest two of any months on record, and the Boreal summer was the hottest summer yet recorded. December came in at a whopping 1.78°C (3.20°F) above the preindustrial average, Copernicus found.
Ocean temperatures helped make 2023 the hottest year ever recorded - A multi-national team of scientists (China, U.S., New Zealand, Italy, and France) analyzes the temperature of the Earth annually. These scientists have found a fever that increases every year: For the past decade, each year has been hotter than the prior year in the ocean, and there are other changes in the ocean that also matter. The ocean is an important part of the Earth's climate system—it covers 70% of the planet and absorbs about 90% of the heat from global warming. The ocean helps control the atmosphere—a warmer ocean leads to a warmer and moister atmosphere with wilder weather. The ocean also controls how fast the Earth's climate changes. To understand what has happened or what will happen to the planet, answers can be found in the ocean. The data were obtained from two research teams: the Institute of Atmospheric Physics (IAP) at the Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS) and the National Centers for Environmental Information of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). Based on temperature measurements analyzed by the IAP, the world ocean heated by 15 zettajoules relative to 2022. According to NOAA, the heating was smaller, 9 zettajoules. Both groups reported another year of warming, but their magnitudes differed, as addressed below. The final results are published on January 11, 2024 in Advances in Atmospheric Science.. Annually, the entire globe consumes around half a zettajoule of energy to fuel our economies. A zettajoule is a huge amount of energy. Another way to think about this is that 15 zettajoules is enough energy to boil away 2.3 billion Olympic-sized swimming pools (50 m length, 25 m width and 2 m depth). Why do the values differ? Scientists are working hard to resolve this, and early evidence points to the way each group handles the data. Big differences arise from "quality control" and how individual values are mapped onto a global grid. In particular, in a warming climate, new high ocean temperature measurements can be erroneously discarded. "What this means is the warming might be greater than the numbers reported here," says Dr. Lijing Cheng from IAP/CAS, the lead author of the study.
Record heat in 2023 worsened global droughts, floods and wildfires -Record heat across the world profoundly impacted the global water cycle in 2023, contributing to severe storms, floods, megadroughts and bushfires, new research from The Australian National University (ANU) shows. The findings are outlined in a new report released today by the Global Water Monitor Consortium and led by ANU researchers. Lead author Professor Albert Van Dijk, from ANU, said the report underscores the consequences of persistent fossil fuel burning on natural disasters, water resources, biodiversity and food security. "Record-breaking heat waves swept across the globe in 2023, shattering previous records, from Canada to Brazil and from Spain to Thailand," Professor Van Dijk said. "The lack of rainfall and high temperatures exacerbated multi-year droughts in South America, the Horn of Africa and around the Mediterranean. Extremely hot and dry conditions inflicted extensive ecological damage on the world's largest forests. Massive wildfires ravaged Canada during the northern summer, while the Amazon rainforest and rivers rapidly descended into severe drought in late 2023." Some of the worst disasters of 2023 were linked to unusually strong cyclones bringing extreme rainfall to New Zealand, Mozambique and Malawi, Myanmar, Greece, Libya and Australia. According to Professor van Dijk, who is also Chair of the Global Water Monitor Consortium, rising sea surface and air temperatures caused by fossil fuel burning have been intensifying the strength and rainfall intensity of monsoons, cyclones and other storm systems.This was also evident closer to home, where Cyclone Jasper battered northern Queensland and severe storms hit southeast Queensland. "Some areas around Cairns recorded more than 800 millimeters of rain. The torrential rains caused widespread flooding. That was because the cyclone moved much slower than expected," he said. "The recent cyclones and intensive storms in Queensland and elsewhere in Australia should not be seen as isolated freak events but part of a global pattern that was quite clear in 2023. In 2023, we saw cyclones behave in unexpected and deadly ways. The longest-lived cyclone ever recorded battered southeastern Africa for weeks. Warmer sea temperatures fueled those freak behaviors, and we can expect to see more of these extreme events going forward." Professor van Dijk said the last two decades have seen increased air temperatures and declining air humidity, causing increased heat stress and water requirements for people, crops and ecosystems, while intensifying droughts. Relative air humidity over the global land surface in 2023 was the second driest on record after 2021, continuing a trend towards drier and more extreme conditions. The year 2023 was Earth's hottest year on record, showing what a typical future year with 1.5 degrees warming may look like. "A total of 77 countries experienced the highest average annual temperature in at least 45 years," Professor Van Dijk said. Professor Van Dijk said that 2023 was a year of extremes, with increasing extreme dry and wet conditions and more unprecedented weather events. This is in line with ongoing changes in the water cycle over the last two decades. "The events of 2023 show how ongoing climate change is threatening our planet and lives more with every passing year," he said. "Globally, we're seeing an increase in the frequency and intensity of rainfall events and river flooding. But at the same time, there are also more frequent and faster developing droughts, or 'flash droughts.' "That can cause crop failure and destructive wildfires in a matter of weeks or months. With the global food challenge, biodiversity crisis and an extremely urgent need to reduce carbon emissions, these droughts and wildfires are among our greatest global threats."
Global heating may breach 1.5°C in 2024—here's what that could look like -- It's official: 2023 was Earth's hottest year ever recorded, beating the previous record set in 2016 by a huge margin. Last year was also the first in which the world was close to 1.5°C (1.48°C) hotter than the pre-industrial average (1850-1900). We are brushing against the threshold scientists urged us to limit long-term warming to. Some scientists, including former Nasa climatologist James Hansen, predict 2024 will be humanity's first year beyond 1.5°C. As what were once dire warnings fromclimate experts become our shared reality, what can you expect? The 1.5°C temperature target, enshrined in the 2015 Paris agreement, is not shattered on first contact. Most of the climate tipping points scientists fear could send warming hurtling out of control are not expected until Earth is consistently warmer than 1.5°C. The global average temperature is likely to dip down again once the present El Niño (a warm phase in a natural cycle focused on the equatorial Pacific Ocean) dissipates. Instead, 2024 could be our first glimpse of Earth at 1.5°C. Here's what research suggests it will look like for people and nature. These habitats comprise a network of polyp-like animals and colorful algae encased in calcium carbonate.Corals have adapted to live in a specific temperature range, so when ocean temperatures are too hot for a prolonged period, corals can bleach—losing the colorful algae that live within their tissue and nourish them via photosynthesis—and may eventually die," say coral biologists. In a world made 1.5°C hotter, 99% of reefs will be exposed to intolerable heat too often for them to recover according to Dixon's research, threatening food and income for roughly one billion people—not to mention biodiversity.Coral reefs will earn their reputation as the "canaries in the coal mine" forclimate change's impact on the natural world. As global heating ticks up towards 2°C, the devastation already seen on reefs will become evident elsewhere according to an analysis by biodiversity scientist Alex Pigot at UCL:"We found that limiting global warming to 1.5°C would leave 15% of species at risk of abruptly losing at least one third of their current geographic range. However, this doubles to 30% of species on our present trajectory of 2.5°C of warming."Above 1.5°C, humanity risks provoking heat waves so intense they defy the human body's capacity to cool itself. Intense heat and humidity have rarely conspired to create "wetbulb" temperatures of 35°C. This is the point at which the air is too hot and humid for sweating to cool you down—different from the "drybulb" temperature a thermometer reports. Earth's rising temperature could soon change that according to climate scientists Tom Matthews (Loughborough University) and Colin Raymond (California Institute of Technology). "Modeling studies had already indicated that wetbulb temperatures could regularly cross 35°C if the world sails past the 2°C warming limit … with The Persian Gulf, South Asia and North China Plain on the frontline of deadly humid heat," they say. But different areas of the the world are warming at different rates. In a world that is 1.5°C hotter on average, temperatures in your local area may have actually risen by more than that. To account for this, Matthews and Raymond studied records from individual weather stations worldwide and found that many sites were closing in much more rapidly on the lethal heat and humidity threshold. "The frequency of punishing wetbulb temperatures (above 31°C, for example) has more than doubled worldwide since 1979, and in some of the hottest and most humid places on Earth, like the coastal United Arab Emirates, wetbulb temperatures have already flickered past 35°C," they say. "The climate envelope is pushing into territory where our physiology cannot follow."
Acidity of Antarctic waters could double by century's end, threatening biodiversity, say scientists- The acidity of Antarctica's coastal waters could double by the end of the century, threatening whales, penguins and hundreds of other species that inhabit the Southern Ocean, according to new research from the Univeristy of Colorado Boulder. Scientists projected that by 2100, the upper 650 feet (200 meters) of the ocean—where much marine life resides—could see more than a 100% increase in acidity compared with 1990s levels. The paper, appeared Jan. 4 in the journal Nature Communications. The oceans play an important role as a buffer against climate change by absorbing nearly 30% of the CO2 emitted worldwide. But as more CO2 dissolves in the oceans, the seawater becomes more acidic. "Human-caused CO2 emissions are at the heart of ocean acidification," said Cara Nissen, the paper's first author and a research scientist at INSTAAR. The Southern Ocean, which surrounds Antarctica, is particularly susceptible to acidification, partly because colder water tends to absorb more CO2. Ocean currents in the area also contribute to the relatively acidic water conditions. Using a computer model, Nissen, et al found it would become more acidic by 2100, and the situation would be severe if the world fails to cut emissions. "It's not just the top layer of the ocean. The entire water column of the coastal Southern Ocean, even at the bottom, could experience severe acidification," Nissen said. The team then investigated the conditions specifically in Antarctica's marine protected areas (MPAs). Human activities, such as fishing, are restricted in these regions to protect biodiversity. Currently, there are two MPAs in the Southern Ocean, covering about 12% of water in the region. Scientists have proposed designating three more MPAs to an international council in the past years, which would encompass about 60% of the Antarctic Ocean. The team's model showed that both adopted and proposed MPAs would experience significant acidification by the end of the century. For example, under the highest-emission scenario, where the world makes no efforts to cut emissions, the average acidity of the water in the Ross Sea region—the world's largest MPA off the northern tip of Antarctica—would increase by 104% over 1990s levels by 2100. Under an intermediate emissions scenario, the water would still become 43% more acidic. "It's surprising to me how severe ocean acidification would be in these coastal waters," Nissen said. Previous studies have shown that phytoplankton, a group of algae that forms the basis of the marine food web, grow at a slower rate or die out when the water becomes too acidic. Acidic water also weakens the shells of organisms like sea snails and sea urchins. These changes could disrupt the food web, eventually impacting top predators like whales and penguins. The Weddell Sea is one of the three proposed MPAs located off the coast of the Antarctic Peninsula. Nissen said scientists think the Weddell Sea region could act as a climate change sanctuary for organisms, mainly because this area has the highest levels of sea ice coverage in the Antarctic. The ice shields the ocean from warming and prevents the seawater underneath from absorbing CO2 from the air, thereby reducing the rate of acidification. In addition, the region has little human activity to date. But the model suggested that as the planet continues to warm, the sea ice will melt, and the Weddell Sea region will experience acidification on par with other MPAs under intermediate to high emission scenarios, but with a slightly delayed progression. The study suggests that the world could only avoid severe ocean acidification of the Southern Ocean under the lowest emission scenario, where society cuts CO2 emissions quickly and aggressively. "We still have time to select our emission pathway, but we don't have much," Nissen said.
U.S. billion-dollar weather disasters set an all-time record in 2023, with 28 » Yale Climate Connections - Led by a record-costly swarm of severe weather episodes, the contiguous United States suffered 28 billion-dollar weather disasters in 2023, the highest number in inflation-adjusted data going back to 1980, according to NOAA. The former record was 22, set in 2020.“For millions of Americans impacted by a seemingly endless onslaught of weather and climate disasters, 2023 has hit a new record for many extremes,” said NOAA Chief Scientist Sarah Kapnick. “Record warm U.S. temperatures in December, a record-setting number of U.S. billion-dollar disasters in 2023, and potentially the warmest year on record for the planet are just the latest examples of the extremes we now face that will continue to worsen due to climate change.”The total cost of 2023’s billion-dollar weather disasters, $92.9 billion, was the ninth-highest on record. NOAA’s 2023 billion-dollar weather disaster list included 19 severe storm events, two tropical cyclones, four floods, one winter weather event, one drought, and one wildfire event.The cost of the 19 severe storm events in 2023 was $54 billion, setting a new record for costliest year on record for that peril (previous record: $44 billion in 2011). The most expensive disaster of 2023, the $14.5 billion drought and heatwave that affected much of the South and Midwest, ranked as the nation’s seventh-costliest drought since 1980. Billion-dollar events now account for over 85% of the total U.S. losses for all weather-related disasters; this fraction was just 75% in 1980-2000.Billion-dollar weather disasters in the U.S. killed 492 people in 2023, compared to 474 in 2022 and 688 in 2021. The deadliest disaster of 2023 was the summer-long drought and heat wave focused across the southern tier of states, which was blamed for 247 deaths. The second-deadliest was the Maui, Hawai’i firestorm, which killed 100 people on August 8 – the deadliest U.S. wildfire in over a century.NOAA’s 1980-2023 annual inflation-adjusted average is 8.5 billion-dollar events, but over the past five years (2019-2023), the annual average has more than doubled, to 20.4 events. In a blog post, NOAA said: “The number and cost of weather and climate disasters are increasing in the United States due to a combination of increased exposure (i.e., more assets at risk), vulnerability (i.e., how much damage a hazard of given intensity—wind speed, or flood depth, for example—causes at a location), and the fact that climate change is increasing the frequency of some types of extremes that lead to billion-dollar disasters (Fifth U.S. National Climate Assessment (2023).”
U.S. climate-warming greenhouse gas emissions declined slightly in 2023 : NPR -- The United States reduced emissions of climate-warming greenhouse gasses last year, after two years in which emissions rose. But the decline wasn't enough to meet climate targets set by the Biden administration. That would require much steeper cuts, most likely by significantly reducing the use of fossil fuels.U.S. emissions declined 1.9% in 2023 despite a growing economy, according to new estimates from the research firm Rhodium Group. That continues a trend in which wealthy countries have managed to break the link between economic growth and climate pollution.Under the 2015 international Paris Agreement, the U.S. has pledged to cut U.S. emissions 50 - 52% from their 2005 levels by the end of this decade. U.S. emissions are currently just 17.2% below 2005 levels, Rhodium finds. That means future annual reductions need to be much larger than last year's 1.9%."To meet the 2030 goal, we need to see more than triple that every year," says Ben King, associate director with Rhodium Group's energy and climate practice. "We need to see 6.9% decreases starting in 2024 through 2030."Emissions plunged more than 11% during the COVID-19 pandemic. Then they increased in 2021 and 2022, leaving them down 6% from 2019 levels.Two big reasons for the 2023 decline were the country's continuing transition away from carbon-intensive coal-fired power plants and toward natural gas and renewable energy, King says. A relatively mild winter last year also meant less energy was required to keep buildings warm. King says transportation emissions rose 1.6%, primarily due to increasing air travel, and industrial emissions increased 1% because of more domestic oil and gas production.
U.S. Supreme Court decision puts Minnesota's climate change lawsuit closer to its day in court - A major hurdle was removed on Monday to a lawsuit seeking to hold fossil fuel firms responsible for climate change. The U.S. Supreme Court declined to take up a challenge to a lawsuit brought by Minnesota Attorney General Keith Ellison against six companies connected to oil production. The companies had sought to have the lawsuit moved to federal court, and the court's decision to deny their petition keeps the case at the state level. "[T]he defendants' behavior has delayed the transition to alternative energy sources and a lower carbon economy, resulting in dire impacts on Minnesota's environment and enormous costs to Minnesotans and the world," Ellison wrote in an emailed statement. With the Supreme Court's decision, he added, "We can begin to hold these companies accountable for their wrongful conduct." Minnesota's suit, filed in 2020, is one of several brought by cities, counties and states in the past seven years that seeks to hold oil firms accountable for their contributions to a warming planet. None has yet reached the point where each side is presenting evidence and arguments, however, because of repeated battles over whether the lawsuits should be heard in state or federal courts. The Sabin Center for Climate Change Law at Columbia University lists 34 such cases in its database. The center tracks many kinds of climate litigation. Its executive director, Michael Burger, also works with the law firm handling Minnesota's litigation.. Minnesota's suit argues that the companies duped consumers by hiding evidence that burning fossil fuels heats the planet. The defendants include the American Petroleum Institute (API), ExxonMobil Corp. and Koch Industries. Ryan Meyers, API senior vice president and general counsel, contended in an email that the lawsuits were meritless. "We're disappointed by the Supreme Court's decision today to keep this litigation in state court," Meyers said. "But ultimately, climate policy is an issue for Congress to debate, not the court system."
Landowners' fury threatens pipeline projects - — Steve Roquet’s soybean field was a sea of emerald as he waded in last summer under a bright, cloudless sky. The green leaves brushed his belt. Then he got to the strip dug up seven years ago for the Dakota Access oil pipeline and looked down at pale plants and bare spots. Where the trench was cut, the plants reach only halfway up his calf. That costs the fourth-generation Iowa farmer thousands of dollars per year. “They told me within two to three years we’d be back to normal,” Roquet said. “In 500 years, it won’t be back to what it was.” That’s why Roquet — pronounced “Rocky” — bitterly opposed another company’s plans to trench a second pipeline through his farm, this one to carry carbon dioxide instead of oil. But in late October, in the face of withering opposition and regulatory rejections, Navigator CO2 Ventures gave up on its plans to build the Heartland Greenway pipeline. The collapse reflects the unpopularity of pipeline projects among some landowners in a region where resentment lingers from Dakota Access and other energy projects. Complaints from landowners about safety and damage to their land have been a constant in the country’s pipeline fights. But they’ve typically taken a back seat to environmental groups’ concerns about climate change and companies’ promises of growth and jobs. Now, red farm states are rejecting plans for new projects like Heartland Greenway. And the rejection of those plans could imperil a key element of President Joe Biden’s climate agenda: capturing carbon dioxide from industrial plants and piping it to facilities to be permanently buried. Other projects, like one billed by Summit Carbon Solutions as the biggest carbon project in the world, are pushing forward against vocal opposition. Experts have said as many as 65,000 miles of carbon pipelines will be needed for the country to reach net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050. And according to federal data, 6,000 miles of oil, gas and liquids pipelines are on the drawing board or under construction right now. That comes on top of a building spree that saw more than 70,000 miles of oil and gas pipeline laid across the country since the end of 2010. Pipeline construction is different from other industrial development in that it often takes place on other people’s land. To investigate how the build-out of oil and gas pipelines affected those in their path — and how CO2 pipelines could affect them in the future — E&E News reviewed thousands of pages of documents including lawsuits, academic studies, inspection reports and crop reports. E&E News also traveled to sites in Iowa, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania and Virginia to talk to landowners. The company that built Dakota Access through Roquet’s land said it followed the rules and treated him fairly. But E&E News’ investigation found landowners have little recourse when pipeline companies break promises to restore their land to its original condition. “It’s a process that needs to be fixed,” said Richard Glick, a Democrat who oversaw interstate natural gas pipelines when he chaired the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission. “I would not be happy with it if it was my land.”
Carbon dioxide pipelines demystified: Balancing potentials, pitfalls for a sustainable future - A recent University of Houston white paper, titled "Carbon Dioxide Pipelines: Role in Responding to Carbon Emissions," spotlights the indispensable role of carbon dioxide pipelines in advancing carbon capture, utilization and storage (CCUS) systems worldwide. The paper delves into the economic and logistical advantages that pipelines offer in the transportation of carbon dioxide, emphasizing their crucial perspective in the global effort to address carbon emissions and help achieve a net-zero future. In addition to highlighting the environmental benefits, the whitepaper recognizes the vital role communities play in the CCUS scenario, especially in terms of obtaining agreements from landowners to facilitate pipeline construction. The U.S., a global leader in carbon management and commercial deployment of CCUS, has an extensive carbon dioxide pipeline network spanning 5,385 miles with a capacity to transport 80 million tons of carbon dioxide annually. However, this network must be expanded to achieve the full potential of CCUS. "Construction and operation of a carbon dioxide pipeline impacts communities in both positive and negative ways," said Paul Doucette, the Hydrogen Program officer in the Division of Energy and Innovation at UH. "Economic benefits and workforce opportunities flow to the community, but both construction of the pipelines and their operation also expose the community to risks and inconvenience. It is essential that communities have an opportunity to engage on both and that requires open and transparent collaboration and communications between contractors, operators and the community." The major community concerns identified by the paper, authored by Doucette and Mohan Vedala, a research assistant with UH Energy, are pipeline efficiency and safety, potential repercussions for farmers and the health and well-being of community members. These concerns, the authors point out, are compounded by real-world incidents, such as the incident in Satartia, Mississippi—used as a case study in the white paper—where a pipeline failure resulted in a carbon dioxide leak prompting the evacuation of 200 residents and 45 people needing medical attention. The paper analyzes the challenges and opportunities in growing the U.S. network of carbon dioxide pipelines, offers pipeline owners a list of best practices and helps communities get a clear understanding of carbon dioxide pipeline-related issues, enabling informed decision-making about their local impact. Emphasizing community engagement, it advocates transparent communication among the operator, community members and permitting agencies. The document also underscores the distinct challenges encountered by underserved and underrepresented communities in this context. This paper, along with the earlier CCUS infrastructure white paper, provides a neutral assessment and recommendations, offering valuable insights into the construction, operation and broader implications of carbon dioxide pipelines.
Washington's cap on carbon is raising billions for climate action. Can it survive the backlash? - For months now, it’s been free for anyone 18 or younger to ride the light rail through Seattle, the ferry across Puget Sound, and buses all over Washington state. As students tapped their new ORCA cards and hopped on the bus, probably the last thing they were thinking about was the state’s carbon pricing program, the source of funding behind their free ride.One year after it went into effect, Washington’s “cap-and-invest” system has already brought in an eyebrow-raising $2.2 billion for action on climate change. The Climate Commitment Act, signed by Governor Jay Inslee in 2021, establishes a statewide limit on greenhouse gas emissions that steadily lowers over time. The law also creates a market, like California’s, for businesses to buy “allowances” for the carbon pollution they emit, prodding them to cut their emissions — and at the same time generating a boatload of money to tackle climate change. Touted as the “gold standard” for state climate policy, the law requires Washington to slash its emissions nearly in half by 2030, using 1990 levels as the baseline.The program’s early success has attracted attention — praise from climate advocates and pushback from anti-tax hawks. A hedge fund manager named Brian Heywood has funded a petition drive to repeal the Climate Commitment Act, over its effects on gas prices, along with other petitions to strike down the state’s capital gains tax, give the police more leeway to pursue vehicles, and grant parents access to their kids’ medical records at school. The repeal could be headed to voters as a ballot initiative this November. If voters approve it, Heywood’s initiative wouldn’t just cancel the climate law; it would block the state from creating any other cap-and-trade system in the future.“This is going to force us to do a better job communicating and defending our policies,” said Joe Nguyễn, a state senator representing White Center, an area just south of Seattle, who chairs the state’s Environment, Energy, and Technology Committee.
Oil-friendly Louisiana now has the power to approve carbon capture projects | What could go wrong? --Both Republicans and Democrats in deep-red Louisiana have warmed up to the idea of carbon removal, a practice that involves capturing carbon dioxide from large industrial operations and storing it a mile underground. Federal tax incentives promise to make the burgeoning industry profitable at a time when businesses are looking to slash their carbon emissions. There’s one big hangup: The Environmental Protection Agency has been slow to issue permits for underground wells where the captured carbon is supposed to be stored. So when the agency announced in the waning days of 2023 that it’s handing over permitting duties, known as “primacy,” to Louisiana regulators, elected officials and industry executives celebrated. Republican Governor-elect Jeff Landry, whopreviously said that carbon reduction policies are “extremely destructive on the economy,” called the decision a “significant milestone in our state’s economic development.” Even the local branch of Big Oil’s lobbying arm, the American Petroleum Institute, or API, hailed the move as a boon for growth and sustainability. “Today’s decision will empower the state to continue to be a leader in energy production, community engagement, and environmental progress while boosting the local economy,” Gifford Briggs, API’s Gulf Coast regional director, reportedly told local news outlets. Environmentalists and many locals are not as enthusiastic. Though it holds the promise of reducing climate-warming emissions from highly polluting facilities, carbon removal is a nascent industry that some scientists warn could pose serious health risks to nearby communities. When a pipeline carrying carbon dioxide ruptured in Mississippi in February 2020, dozens of people were hospitalized after experiencing shortness of breath and passing out. Some residents were initially unable to drive their cars to the hospital because the high levels of carbon dioxide in the air prevented their engines from starting. And since the gas will be captured from industrial facilities, its transfer and storage will disproportionately occur in places already overburdened by air pollution. In Louisiana, the country’s third-poorest state, those communities are predominantly Black and low-income. Advocates worry that a state with a legacy of lax oversight of oil and gas companies is the wrong place to streamline permitting for more planned carbon removal projects than anywhere else in the country.The wells that would store carbon dioxide are regulated under the Safe Drinking Water Act, which requires businesses to prevent fluids and waste that they store underground from contaminating public water supplies. While the EPA is the default authority for issuing companies permits to operate these injection wells, the agency can choose to delegate the responsibility to states that prove to have implemented a permitting program of their own. To date, federal regulators have handed off what’s known as “primacy” to just two other states — North Dakota and Wyoming — and Earthjustice says that neither state has any operating wells that store carbon dioxide.
Advocates recoil as former state oil exec named COP29 president -- Azerbaijani Ecology Minister Mukhtar Babayev, a former executive at the country’s state-owned oil company, will serve as president of the United Nations COP29 climate summit this year, 2023 hosts the United Arab Emirates confirmed.“We look forward to working alongside the COP29 and COP30 Presidencies, and the UNFCC [United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change] to build on the transformative and historic success of COP28 and keep 1.5°C within reach,” the COP28 UAE presidency tweeted.Babayev’s appointment compounded the existing controversy among environmental advocates over the choice of a petrostate to host the summit for the second consecutive year. The UAE’s Sultan al-Jaber, the head of the country’s national oil company, served as president of COP28 in 2023 and sparked backlash after saying there was “no science” behind calls to transition away from fossil fuels. Despite this, the summit ended in an agreement to “transition away” from fossil fuels, even as the Organization of Petroleum-Exporting Countries lobbied its members to block such language. The announcement of Babayev nonetheless sparked dismay from environmental advocates, who said it would make progress impossible.“COP28 was run by oil lobbyists, so it’s no surprise that the final agreement committed the world to fossil fuels forever. There’s a sense of déjà vu setting in – we now have a former oil executive from an authoritarian petrostate in charge of the world’s response to the crisis that fossil fuel firms created,” Alice Harrison, Fossil Fuels Campaign Leader at Global Witness, said in a statement Friday.“We again call for the UNFCCC to urgently intervene and kick big polluters out of climate talks, to ensure the talks are held in good faith, and to remove those people who want to make a profit at the expense of the world’s most vulnerable people.”“It’s more than clear this gathering has been fully co-opted by fossil fuels,” tweeted Tara Houska, founder of the Indigenous climate advocacy group Giniw Collective. “Is directing our energy to fighting over a conference worthwhile?”
The new hydrogen tax credits could revolutionize how clean energy is counted - The tax-credit rules for clean hydrogen proposed by the Biden administration last month have a specific purpose: to drive the development of a brand-new source of carbon-free fuel for long-term decarbonization needs, ultimately decreasing carbon emissions. But it turns out that one of the new structures needed to underpin the rules will be important well beyond the hydrogen sector — it will help further the clean energy transition more broadly. That needed structure is a system to track and match carbon-free power from generation to consumption on an hour-by-hour basis. “Hourly matching” is becoming a central — albeit controversial — part of the evolution of how clean energy is tracked, bought and sold by major corporate buyers and national governments, as well as how these transactions are accounted for — their “attribution,” in clean-energy tracking jargon — under international climate agreements. The requirements proposed by the U.S. Treasury Department for hydrogen producers seeking to claim the most lucrative 45V tax credits under the Inflation Reduction Act essentially amount to the nation’s “first rule for carbon emissions attribution for grid-connected electricity,” said John Bistline, a program manager in the Energy Systems and Climate Analysis Group at the Electric Power Research Institute, a nonprofit organization largely funded by U.S. electric utilities. That makes the proposed rules a precedent that “could be important for 24/7 carbon-free energy-attributes credits, energy storage policy” and other key policy developments for an increasingly low-carbon electricity sector, he said in an interview before the Treasury Department’s guidance was unveiled. The ways that companies and government agencies now get credit for investing in clean energy won’t work in a future where renewable energy is the status quo, not a costly substitute for fossil-fueled electricity. Today’s structures allow companies to buy clean energy and credit it against their consumption on an annual average basis. In other words, they can buy a year’s worth of wind or solar power generation, and credit that against their yearly electricity usage, no matter when or where that energy is generated and where the company uses electricity. But that grossly oversimplifies the relationship between when that clean power is produced and when it’s used, making it difficult to accurately determine whether and how much carbon emissions have been reduced. Annual averaging can allow companies to claim that solar power generated during the day is offsetting the carbon emissions from grid electricity they use at nighttime, for instance — a clear mismatch between accounting and reality, since that overnight power certainly isn’t coming from solar and may be coming from coal and fossil-gas power plants. And overly broad rules for how companies source their clean energy can allow them to contract for wind power generated in the Great Plains or West Texas to reduce the carbon-emissions impact of grid electricity consumed in the U.S. Northeast or other far-off areas, even though no grid connections exist to allow that wind power to serve those loads. Such loose structures may have been OK for the past two decades, as during much of that time renewable energy cost a lot more than fossil-fueled power, making any money spent to support it worth crediting. But new wind and solar power facilities are now cheaper to finance and buy power from than coal or fossil-gas power plants — and the clean-energy tax credits provided by the Inflation Reduction Act will make them cheaper still. These underlying realities have made the status quo tracking and crediting structures for corporate clean-energy purchases increasingly untenable. Already, some major clean-energy buyers have been eschewing the looser contractual arrangements that allow them to claim renewable energy certificates from already-built wind and solar projects as offsetting the carbon impact of their electricity purchases, opting instead for “bundled” structures that include commitments to actually buy power from newly built renewable energy projects.
Tax-credit rules leave key 'blue hydrogen' issues unanswered - The Biden administration’s newly proposed hydrogen tax-credit rules aim to enforce strict carbon emissions limits on companies making hydrogen from carbon-free electricity — so-called “green hydrogen.” But its plans for policing the emissions from hydrogen made from fossil gas — in particular, so-called “blue hydrogen” — aren’t as clear. That has environmental watchdogs worried. “We also need to be paying close attention to the blue hydrogen side of the equation,” said Morgan Rote, director of U.S. climate policy at the nonprofit Environmental Defense Fund.“Blue hydrogen” is the term for hydrogen that’s made from fossil gas, but in a way that prevents the resulting carbon emissions from entering the atmosphere. At present, very little blue hydrogen actually exists — most of the roughly 10 million metric tons of hydrogen made in the U.S. every year is “gray hydrogen,” which is produced using fossil gas without capturing emissions.The Inflation Reduction Act’s “clean” hydrogen subsidy program, known as 45V for its section of the tax code, is technology-neutral: As long as a project can prove its emissions are below certain thresholds set in the law, it’s eligible. But multiple analyses have concluded that the government’s method for vetting the carbon-intensity of hydrogen projects is at risk of undercounting blue-hydrogen emissions. That could allow massive polluting blue-hydrogen facilities to receive lucrative federal subsidies that are intended to kick-start production of truly carbon-free green hydrogen, advocates warn.Plenty of blue-hydrogen projects may be trying to prove that they meet this emissions criteria in the years to come.A February report from the Energy Futures Initiative, a nonprofit research group run by former Energy Secretary Ernest Moniz, found that proposed blue-hydrogen projects account for 95percent of total U.S. low- and zero-hydrogen production capacity that’s now planned. While small in number, the sheer scale of these projects eclipses the more numerous green-hydrogen projects in the works.Proponents of blue hydrogen argue that the U.S. can’t scale up its supply of low- and zero-carbon hydrogen — a fuel seen as potentially crucial to decarbonizing sectors like heavy industry — unless it embraces their technology. They also argue that the approach can result in genuinely “clean” hydrogen, with some going as far as to claim their fuel is “carbon-negative.” But environmental groups are skeptical — and they’re asking the Treasury Department to keep a close eye on blue hydrogen as it fields public comments in advance of issuing a final rule expected later this year. The Inflation Reduction Act requires the Treasury Department to use what’s called the “Greet model” to determine these factors. The 45VH2-Greet model, an updated version of the model designed for the 45V tax credits, assumes an upstream methane leak rate of 0.9 percent. That’s well below the 2.3 percent national average leakage rate established by independent empirical studies, said Tianyi Sun, a climate scientist with the Environmental Defense Fund. In some parts of the country, such as the Permian Basin, leakage rates can be as high as 9 percent. That’s a big problem, because a blue-hydrogen project using fossil gas delivered over an especially leaky network could be more harmful from a global-warming perspective than simply burning fossil gas, according to studies from EDF and other nonprofits and academic institutions. The Greet model is updated annually, which provides the opportunity to recalibrate its leakage rates to better reflect reality, EDF’s Rote said. “We are doing a deep dive to understand why the Greet number is what it is.” Another major variable is how much carbon dioxide blue-hydrogen facilities can actually capture and store underground. Carbon capture and storage (CCS) is one way to prevent the climate impacts of burning fossil fuels, but despite decades of effort and billions of dollars spent, most of the CCS projects in the world have failed to achieve the high levels of capture and storage required to make them a climate solution. DOE has set a target for blue-hydrogen projects seeking 45V incentives to capture 94.5 percent of the carbon emissions they generate. But none of the handful of blue-hydrogen projects that have been built so far have been able to achieve such a high level, Sun said.Just how the Treasury Department will require blue-hydrogen producers to track, report and verify their carbon capture rates is not yet clear. Nor is it clear how the department will handle a broader problem for green and blue hydrogen production alike, she said: the risk of hydrogen leaking into the atmosphere.“Hydrogen emissions are often completely omitted under life-cycle assessment frameworks,” including the Greet model, Sun said. But hydrogen, despite not being a direct greenhouse gas,causes chemical reactions in other greenhouse gases that equate to it having 37 times more global-warming impact than carbon dioxide over the first 20 years after it’s released, according to recent research. EDF research shows that even small amounts of leakage could erase the climate benefits of making clean hydrogen in the first place — although other groups have highlighted that hydrogen production with low leakage rates will be more beneficial to the climate than not adopting it.Hydrogen leakage is something to worry about across the production, transport and usage chain, Sun said. But “for blue hydrogen in particular, if both hydrogen and methane emissions are high, hydrogen can be worse for the climate in the short term than the fossil fuel systems it’s replacing,” she said.
US to invest $1bn in plan to move from diesel to electric school buses - The US has announced nearly $1bn in grants to replace diesel-powered school buses with electric and lower-emitting vehicles.The Environmental Protection Agency will disburse funds to 280 school districts serving 7 million children across the country in an effort to curb harmful air pollution and reduce greenhouse gas emissions.“Today we’re once again accelerating the transition to electric and low-emission school buses in America, helping to secure a healthier future where all our children can breathe cleaner air,” the EPA administrator, Michael Regan,said in a statement. Diesel emissions have been linked to higher rates of asthma, cancer and school absenteeism. Communities of color and people living in low-income neighborhoods are more likely to suffer from higher rates of air pollution.Eighty-six per cent of grant recipients are in school districts that serve low-income, rural and tribal communities, according to the EPA. The new funds mean so far nearly $2bn has been awarded to add about 5,000 clean buses to schools across the country. The program draws from the 2021 bipartisan infrastructure law that carved out $5bn to equip schools with clean buses over five years, and is part of a broader federal strategy that aims to spend 40% of investments in environmental justice communities. But the Biden administration’s efforts to phase out diesel school buses could be stalled by the limited infrastructure that exists for charging electric vehicles. According to a recent report by EPA’s office of inspector general: “The increased demand on utility companies may impact the timeliness of replacing diesel buses.” Some states have also been pushing back on completely phasing out their diesel school fleets. In a letter to New York’s Governor Kathy Hochul, Republican senators expressed concern over the new state mandate that bans the purchase of diesel buses starting in 2027. “School officials in my district are all sounding the alarm about the state’s unfunded electric bus mandate and the crushing financial costs it will mean for districts,” said senator George Borrello in a statement last month.
Biden admin drops nearly $1 billion on green bus program inspector general warned was unfeasible -- The Biden administration is dispersing nearly another billion dollars in federal grants for school districts nationwide to decarbonize their bus fleets, despite recent inspector general findings casting doubt on the program. The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), in a joint announcement with the White House, said it had selected 67 applicants to receive approximately $965 million to purchase electric and low-emission school buses. The funding means the agency has now awarded nearly $2 billion for thousands of new buses across hundreds of school districts under its Clean School Bus Program, which was created in late 2021. "As part of our work to tackle the climate crisis, the historic funding we are announcing today is an investment in our children, their health, and their education," Vice President Kamala Harris said in a statement. “Today we’re once again accelerating the transition to electric and low-emission school buses in America, helping to secure a healthier future where all our children can breathe cleaner air," added EPA Administrator Michael Regan. The grants unveiled Monday will help selected applicants purchase more than 2,700 electric or low-emissions school buses in 280 school districts serving more than 7 million students across 37 states, according to EPA. Those awards come a year after the EPA awarded more than $875 million to 2022 applicants under the program, funding the replacement of 2,366 buses at 372 school districts. The Clean School Bus Program was created under the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act, which President Biden signed into law in November 2021. The legislation provides a total of $5 billion in federal grants through 2026 to replace existing diesel-powered school buses nationwide. The agency has projected the program will fund thousands of new electric school buses. However, the EPA Office of Inspector General in late December published the findings of an audit which determined that the Clean School Bus Program was largely dependent on utility companies' ability to increase power supplies. Further, the program may also face significant delays, according to the inspector general, without construction of additional charging stations. Entities interviewed by the inspector general's office specifically expressed concern about the ability of utility providers to bring power lines and transformers to school districts with electric buses. While some power providers have experience with electric bus infrastructure, they said they had never built such infrastructure at scale. Establishing charging stations and connecting them to the regional power grid could take as much as two years, according to the report. Additionally, bus charging stations that are expected to support more than 25 buses in larger school districts face other challenges since they require different technology. "The Agency may be unable to effectively achieve program goals unless it can ensure that school districts will be able to establish the infrastructure necessary to support clean bus and charging purchases," the EPA inspector general concluded. "There could be delays in utilities constructing the needed charging stations to make the buses fully operational in a timely manner."
Biden awards $623 million in grants to build out electric vehicle charging network -- (AP) — The Biden administration is awarding $623 million in grants to states, local governments and tribes to help build an electric vehicle charging network across the nation. Grants announced Thursday will fund 47 EV charging stations and related projects in 22 states and Puerto Rico, including 7,500 EV charging ports, officials said.“America led the arrival of the automotive era, and now we have a chance to lead the world in the EV revolution — securing jobs, savings and benefits for Americans in the process,” said Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg. The new funding “will help ensure that EV chargers are accessible, reliable and convenient for American drivers, while creating jobs in charger manufacturing, installation and maintenance for American workers.”Congress approved $7.5 billion in the 2021 infrastructure law to meet President Joe Biden’s goal to build a national network of 500,000 publicly available chargers by 2030. The charging ports are a key part of Biden’s effort to encourage drivers to move away from gasoline-powered cars and trucks that contribute to global warming.But progress on the network has been slow. Ohio and New York are the only states that have opened charging stations under the National Electric Vehicle Infrastructureprogram. Several other states, including Pennsylvania and Maine, have broken ground on federally funded projects and are expected to open stations early this year. A total of 28 states, plus Puerto Rico, have either awarded contracts to build chargers or have accepted bids to do so.Since Biden took office in 2021, EV sales have more than quadrupled and reached more than 1 million last year. The number of publicly available charging ports has grown by nearly 70% to 168,426, White House climate adviser Ali Zaidi said.That number is about one-third of the way to Biden’s goal, with six years remaining.“We are on an accelerating trajectory to meet and exceed the president’s goal to hit 500,000 chargers and build that nationwide backbone,’' Zaidi told reporters Wednesday.Hours after the announcement, the Republican-controlled House approved a measure that would block a Biden administration policy that temporarily waives some domestic content requirements for federally funded EV chargers. Supporters said their vote would keep China out of the supply chain for EV chargers, a politically potent idea that is supported by lawmakers in both parties.
Pay no mind to the diesel behind your EV charging station - The largest charging station in the world sits in Coalinga, California . The Harris Ranch Tesla Supercharger station contains 98 charging bays that can charge your Tesla up to 80% in 20 minutes. While Tesla CEO Elon Musk said back in 2017 that all of the company’s superchargers were being converted to solar energy, the Coalinga station is simply too large to run on anything other than the diesel generators that sit behind a nearby Shell station. Yeah, it is an outrageous thing to think about. Your electric car is being powered by evil, dirty diesel? What’s next? Are electric car batteries produced through a process that pollutes air and water and further destroys the environment? Oh, they are ? Well, how about that?And so goes the never-ending hypocrisy of climate change doomers and their “solutions.†You must switch to more expensive, less reliable cars for your everyday commute in order to save the planet, but that massive transition far outpaces the capabilities of “clean†solar and wind. Big, bad, “dirty†energy must come to the rescue to keep your climate-saving electric vehicle rolling.That is how the climate change charade goes. California’s grid can’t operate without nuclear or natural gas, which is why the state is reversing its policies to keep those forms of energy in use. Your electric car can’t function without electricity being provided by dirty energy sources or batteries provided by lithium mining. And the climate cult can’t keep operating without hiding just how much their “clean†energy plans rely on the “dirty†energy they want to destroy. It’s a fun little game, all made possible by those fossil fuels you have heard so much about.
China Seeks to Harness Electricity from Massive EV Fleet - In the industrial hub of Wuxi near Shanghai, car owners recently took part in China’s largest experiment to rewire the grid and take advantage of its world-leading fleet of electric vehicles. Instead of charging up after plugging in, 50 EVs did it the other way around. For 30 minutes, the cars combined to feed around 2 megawatts of electricity into the grid, enough to fully power 133 houses for a day, according to a report from state-owned CCTV. China plans to lean further into vehicle-to-grid tech. The government’s top economic planning agency, the National Development and Reform Commission, said last week it will select 50 projects in places like Shanghai, Beijing, Guangdong and Sichuan to carry out demonstrations by 2025. By 2030, it wants the technology and market mechanisms that would allow widespread adoption standardized across the country. Vehicle-to-grid projects envision cars as energy storage systems on wheels, able to charge up when power is plentiful and feed electricity back into the system when demand surges. By 2040, EVs in China could have enough capacity to supply all of the country’s peak demand needs if they were V2G-capable, according to BloombergNEF. That’s the long-term vision. In the short term, planners would be happy if they could just get EVs to avoid charging during peak hours. Plugging in at the busiest times strains a grid that’s proven fragile in recent years, as well as requiring more fossil fuels to be burned to meet consumption. The NDRC wants at least 60 percent of all EV charging in the demonstration cities to be done at times of low demand by 2025. Crucial to vehicle-grid integration will be mechanisms that let cars and drivers know when there’s excess power and when supplies are tight. While some places like California and Australia have dynamic power pricing that can change by the minute, most parts of China have a price that’s fixed for a whole day, especially for residential customers.
Commodities 2024: Battery storage expected to make up 21% of US capacity additions | S&P Global Commodity Insights -US battery storage capacity is poised for a record year in 2024 with Texas and California continuing to lead in the US in new additions, after installations reached a new record last quarter. S&P Global Commodity Insights expects a combined 40.6 GW of capacity additions in 2024 from wind, solar and battery, with batteries making up 8.6 GW, said Shayne Willette, S&P Global senior research analyst. "Like solar, batteries are poised for a record year of installations as well," Willette said. "As renewables increasingly penetrate the grid and emissions standards become more stringent, the role batteries play in enhancing grid reliability is being further emphasized." The US Energy Information Administration expects new solar generating capacity to be accompanied by 9 GW of new battery storage capacity in 2023, doubling the total amount compared with what was operating at the end of 2022. Prior to the Inflation Reduction Act, batteries only qualified for federal tax credits if they were located alongside solar. But with the passage of the IRA, standalone battery systems now qualify for the investment tax credit, Willette said. In conjunction with the IRA, battery system capital costs continue to decline, further improving the economics of the tech. The battery storage added in Q4 is expected to be roughly 4.5 GW, according to an S&P Global compilation of various government filings.
As Utility Bills Rise, Low-Income Americans Struggle for Access to Clean Energy - Cindy Camp is one of many Americans facing rising utility costs. Ms. Camp, who lives in Baltimore with three family members, said her gas and electric bills kept “going up and up” — reaching as high as $900 a month. Ms. Camp would like to save money on energy bills by transitioning to more energy-efficient appliances like a heat pump and solar panels. But she simply cannot afford it. Power bills have been rising nationwide, and in Baltimore, electricity rates have increased almost 30 percent over the last decade, according to data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. While clean energy systems and more efficient appliances could help low-income households mitigate some of those increases, many face barriers trying to gain access to those products. Low-income households have been slower to adopt clean energybecause they often lack sufficient savings or have low credit scores, which can impede their ability to finance projects. Some have also found it difficult to navigate federal and state programs that would make installations more affordable, and many are renters who cannot make upgrades themselves.Energy costs have traditionally been a bigger burden for low-income households, which typically spend a far larger percentage of their gross income on utility bills than higher-earning households, according to the Energy Department. Many also live in older, less efficient homes, which can lead to more expensive utility bills. In 2020, 34 million U.S. households, or 27 percent of all households, reported difficulty paying their energy bills or kept their homes at an unsafe temperature because of energy cost concerns, according to the Energy Information Administration. The Biden administration has deployed a suite of programs to try to increase access to clean energy and lower household utility bills. The efforts are part of a broader push to reduce carbon emissions in response to climate change, which often disproportionately affects disadvantaged communities.
‘What Corruption Gets You’: How Utility Companies Bought Support in the Black South - Former Florida state Rep. Joe Gibbons sat in the library of the Faith Community Church in Greensboro, North Carolina, trying to convince its pastor to quit promoting rooftop solar.With a lobbyist’s charm, Gibbons told the Rev. Nelson Johnson that rooftop solar, which allows customers to generate their own renewable electricity, was bad for people of color. Gibbons argued that it creates an imbalance in which those without solar panels end up subsidizing those who have them, Johnson recalled in an interview with Floodlight. Johnson, a civil rights stalwart who was stabbed by a member of the Ku Klux Klan in 1979, had trouble believing him.“It felt like he was an employee of Duke,” Johnson said of Gibbons, referencing his state’s power company. At the time Gibbons met Johnson in 2015, Duke Energy was opposing a state bill that would have allowed anyone to install solar panels and sell electricity directly to consumers. Johnson was at the center of a legal battle over just such a third-party solar project planned for his church.Gibbons wasn’t a Duke employee — not directly anyway. He founded a tax-exempt groupcalled the Energy Equity Alliance; little information about its finances are available. But it was closely aligned — through two board members and Gibbons’ wife, Ava Parker — with NetCommunications, a Black-owned consulting firm. That year, NetCommunications was paid $750,000 by the Edison Electric Institute (EEI), a powerful utility trade group to which Duke belongs, for “consulting.” Duke did not respond to requests for comment.Gibbons denied receiving funding from any utility in an interview with Floodlight and Capital B. But tax records and leaked internal documents confirm that a separate tax-exempt group he founded in 2018 received $2.8 million from a network of tax-exempt groups controlled by power company consultants. He later declined to answer specific questions about his industry ties.Johnson wasn’t the only Black leader Gibbons pitched, according to recordings of his public statements. More than two dozen Black civil rights leaders in the Southeast have been high-value targets in power companies’ battle for market dominance, courted and at times even co-opted by the industry, according to an investigation by Floodlight and Capital B.The multibillion-dollar power companies use Black support to divert attention from the environmental harms that spew from their fossil fuel plants, the investigation found, harms which disproportionately fall on Black communities. One civil rights leader received power company cash as he built support for its attempted takeover of a smaller municipal utility in Florida. Another fought state oversight in Alabama that could have lowered electric bills and federal oversight that could have restricted emissions and pollution from coal burning power plants.Some civil rights and faith leaders “will sell you out because they’ll sell anything — they’ll sell sea water,” said the Rev. Michael Malcom, executive director of the environmental justice organization Alabama Interfaith Power & Light in Birmingham. “But there are others who are earnest and trying to survive … and it causes them to make some bad decisions. And there is a whole ‘nother group that is just ignorant to the idea [of environmental justice] and will sell you out due to that ignorance.”
Gigantic solar farms of the future might impact how much solar power can be generated on the other side of the world --The Sun’s energy is effectively limitless. While resources such as coal or gas are finite, if you are able to capture and use solar power it doesn’t prevent anyone else from also using as much sunshine as they need. Except that isn’t quite the full story. Beyond a certain size, solar farms become large enough to affect the weather around them and ultimately the climate as a whole. In our new research we have looked at the effect such climate-altering solar farms might have on solar power production elsewhere in the world.We know that solar power is affected by weather conditions and output varies through the days and seasons. Clouds, rain, snow and fog can all block sunlight from reaching solar panels. On a cloudy day, output can drop by 75%, while their efficiency also decreases at high temperatures.In the long term, climate change could affect the cloud cover of certain regions and how much solar power they can generate. Northern Europe is likely to see a solar decrease for instance, while there should be a slight increase of available solar radiation in the rest of Europe, the US east coast and northern China.If we were ever to build truly giant solar farms, spanning whole countries and continents, they may have a similar impact. In our recent study, we used a computer program to model the Earth system and simulate how hypothetical enormous solar farms covering 20% of the Sahara would affect solar power generation around the world.A photovoltaic (PV) solar panel is dark-coloured and so absorbs much more heat than reflective desert sand. Although a fraction of the energy is converted to electricity, much of it still heats up the panel. And when you have millions of these panels grouped together, the whole area warms up. If those solar panels were in the Sahara, our simulations show this new heat source would rearrange global climate patterns, shifting rainfall away from the tropics and leading to the desert becoming greener again, much as it was just 5,000 or so years ago.This would in turn affect patterns of cloud cover and how much solar energy could be generated around the world. Regions that would become cloudier and less able to generate solar power include the Middle East, southern Europe, India, eastern China, Australia, and the US south-west. Areas that would generate more solar include Central and South America, the Caribbean, central and eastern US, Scandinavia and South Africa.
Congressional Office Agrees to Investigate ‘Zombie’ Coal Mines - With a federal investigation into technically active but non-producing “zombie” mines set to begin in March, a citizens law group in Kentucky has found production idled at nearly 40 percent of all active coal strip mines in the state, with some not mined in more than a decade.In all, these “functionally abandoned” mines—48 of 126 active mines—scar 19 square miles of the state, and leave behind a combined 15 miles of dangerous, blasted-away mountainside cliffs, called “highwalls.”Strip mines are supposed to be reclaimed shortly after blasting and digging for coal, and leaving them alone poses risks to the public and the environment. Environmental advocates have for several years been attempting to quantify a problem that they say has worsened as the coal economy has crashed. At the same time, coal companies in bankruptcy have stopped paying into industry funded programs meant to assure mines are stabilized and cleaned up so the coal industry does not leave behind polluted streams or dangerous highwalls on landscapes that were once forested and hosted critical headwaters.In October, eight Democratic lawmakers, including one from Kentucky and two from Pennsylvania, called for a federal investigation into the full extent of environmental damage of the functionally abandoned “zombie mines,” which can leak toxic waste and send boulders into homes.“Some coal companies are idling mines and stalling reclamation to cut costs,” the lawmakers wrote to the U.S. Government Accountability Office. “Because mine operators typically rely on coal revenue to fund reclamation, the longer a mine remains idle, the greater the risk that the operator may not have sufficient funds to pay for reclamation.”On Thursday, a spokesman for the GAO, which conducts non-partisan investigations for Congress, said the agency has agreed to conduct the study, which will start in March. “We worked with lawmakers to advocate for the GAO report,” and are pleased that it has been approved, said Rebecca Shelton, director of policy for the Appalachian Citizens’ Law Center, a nonprofit based in Whitesburg, Kentucky, which is in part of the state’s mountainous Eastern Kentucky coalfield.These mines are a serious threat, “but the challenge is understanding how big of a problem is” across multiple states, she said. The lawmakers—Reps. Matt Cartwright (D-Pa.), Don Beyer (D-Va.), Morgan McGarvey (D-Ky.), Jared Huffman(D-Ca.), Katie Porter (D-Ca.), Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.), Raul Grijalva (D-Ariz.) and Sen. John Fetterman (D-Pa.)—asked GAO to quantify the number, location and size of coal mines that have neither produced coal nor made reclamation progress, and their bonding status, as well as whether federal regulations may need to be updated.Strip mining for coal in Central Appalachia is an environmentally violent process typically involving the clearcutting of forests and then the blasting of the tops or sides of mountains to get at buried coal. Waste rock can be shoved into headwater streams.Reclamation can consist of backfilling and grading a mined area, eliminating unstable highwalls and mine waste, planting grass or trees, and managing and treating contaminated water that runs off the site. The federal Surface Mining Control and Reclamation Act of 1977 generally requires that mined land be returned to its approximate original contour.The law also requires coal mining companies to secure bonds to cover the costs of reclamation should the companies go bankrupt.
Coal ash more hazardous than previously known, EPA says, could alter Chapel Hill cleanup plan --The black dirt on the steep slope of an overgrown knoll of trash overlooking the Bolin Creek greenway in Chapel Hill is, in fact, not dirt.It’s coal ash, fully exposed to the elements. On this windy winter morning, it’s hard to know if ash particles are hitchhiking on the breeze, but to stand downwind elicits a sense of unease.Coal ash could increase a person’s cancer risk significantly more than previously estimated, according to a recent EPA report, raising questions about the safety of places where ash has been used as structural fill. This is especially true where the ash is visible, like the mound along the Bolin Creek greenway. Like in Mooresville, where ash has escaped a sinkhole in a commercial parking lot, and protruded through crumbling asphalt at Lake Norman High School. Like in Weldon, where state inspectors found swaths of exposed ash at an abandoned sawmill.At least 8.85 million tons of coal ash have been legally used as fill at a minimum of 72 locations in North Carolina, state records show. However, because the state did not require documentation of structural fill sites until 1994, the number is likely far higher. Nationwide, the American Coal Ash Association estimates that a total of 180 million tons of the material have been used in fill projects throughout the U.S. since 1980.The material was commonly used as a cheap way to undergird parking lots, buildings, runways and road beds, reinforce berms at rifle ranges, and even enhance the soil on farm fields. It originated at coal-fired power plants, including Duke Energy, Cogentrix, Roanoke Valley, and even smaller facilities that served textile mills and universities. As long as the ash is adequately shielded with a barrier, such as concrete, asphalt or thick layers of dirt, then it is unlikely people would be exposed to the contaminants in soil, the EPA wrote. (When those contaminants reach groundwater or surface water, they can travel and enter the drinking water supply, presenting additional hazards.)But when that barrier is breached and the material is exposed, the arsenic and radiation can be released.
Oil leak from nuclear power plant due to earthquake in Japan - In the aftermath of the 2024 Noto Peninsula earthquake, the amount of oil leakage from the affected equipment at the Shika Nuclear Power Plant in the most-affected central Japanese prefecture of Ishikawa was over five times higher than the initially disclosed amount, according to the plant's operator. The Shika power station, located 65 kilometers (40 miles) from the epicenter, has already reported temporary power outages, oil leaks at transformers, and water spill-over from nuclear fuel pools. Hokuriku Electric Power Company reported that an oil slick spanning roughly five meters by ten meters was seen floating on the sea's surface in front of the power station, and a neutralizing agent was used to remedy the leak. Hokuriku Electric stated that, due to the earthquake's impact, two external power supply transformers for Units 1 and 2 at the Shika plant were damaged. Specifically, one transformer for Unit 2 was reported to have leaked approximately 3,500 liters of oil, rendering a portion of the external power supply system inoperable. The company admitted during a press conference last Friday that the actual oil leakage amounted to as much as 19,800 liters, and the timeline for repairing the external power supply system remains uncertain. Another transformer for Unit 2 at the plant has been found to have leaked approximately 100 liters of oil, it added. The corporation stated that there are no negative effects on human health or the environment, and external radiation levels remain unaffected. Local media reported "explosion sounds and a burning smell" near the transformer for Unit 2 at the plant, which the power company explained as the automatic fire suppression system in action.
A Plant Proposed in Youngstown, Ohio, Would Have Turned Tons of Tires Into Synthetic Gas. Local Officials Said Not So Fast —Officials in Youngstown, Ohio, have dealt a setback to a company’s plan to build and operate a recycled tire waste-to-energy plant near the center of the city and adjacent to a neighborhood of predominantly Black residents, enacting a one-year moratorium on such industrial processes. Mayor Jamael Tito Brown signed the ordinance Dec. 26.The developer, SOBE Thermal Energy Systems, has proposed turning discarded tires, plastic waste and used electronics into energy at 30 locations, starting with the Youngstown plant situated next to a jail, a Youngstown State University dormitory and a neighborhood where there’s already environmental justice concerns. The plant would turn the tires into a synthetic gas to be burned to produce steam for heating and cooling buildings. But those plans in Youngstown have stirred a robust opposition from local and state environmental and citizens groups, and pushback from some national groups, including Beyond Plastics, a nonprofit activist organization based at Bennington College in Vermont.City Council President Thomas Hetrick said on Tuesday he’s pleased the city will get a year to study a full range of concerns raised by the community, having raised the need for such a moratorium in an interview last July. “This gives us time to figure out the next steps, and to figure out what the impacts are to the city,” he said Tuesday. The Ohio Environmental Protection Agency has been reviewing a key draft permit for the facility, and Hetrick said “the fear was that if it granted the permit (to SOBE), construction could start immediately. We didn’t really want that to happen.” SOBE owner David Ferro, who lives in the Columbus suburbs, did not immediately return a telephone call or email seeking comment on the city’s action and his company’s plans. The company’s plan would deploy an old but reimagined technology called pyrolysis, a centuries-old process for heating materials at high temperatures in an oxygen-free environment that has been used to make tar from timber for wooden ships, coke from coal for steelmaking and, most recently, oil and synthetic gas from plastic. Advocates insist pyrolysis, one type of what the chemical industry calls “advanced” or “chemical” recycling, is not incineration. But critics argue that heating tires and plastics to such high temperatures that they become oils and gases is a form of incineration. They note, too, that the Environmental Protection Agency, in its regulations, considers pyrolysis as incineration. With advanced recycling proposals popping up across the country, environmental advocates consider pyrolysis at the very least to be a high-heat, energy-intensive, carbon-emitting manufacturing process mostly used to make new fossil fuels.
The outrageous blank check Ohio just wrote on behalf of the state's gas customers: editorial - By The Editorial Board, The Plain Dealer - It’s not clear if such rankings are kept, but any list of the most pro-utility states – and pro-utility governors – would surely give Ohio, and Republican Gov. Mike DeWine, a place near the top of the scoreboard. Latest example: The governor’s decision to sign into law Amended Substitute House Bill 201, which, according to the pithy comment of a legislator who opposed the measure, state Sen. Kent Smith, a Euclid Democrat, “allows gas utility companies to build pipelines anywhere under the guise of economic development.” “That means,” he added in a Dec. 31 cleveland.com guest column, “the utility could build a bunch of pipelines to dozens of potential industrial sites, hoping that a company moves into just one of those sites and the utility gets a new customer.” But here’s the rub: Even if those pipelines are in fact never used by new customers won’t matter on gas consumers’ monthly bills: HB 201 requires ratepayers to cover the cost of any gas lines built, plus any planning or development work that may have preceded pipeline construction and its regulatory approval -- all, essentially, on speculation.The new law offers no clear explanation for why consumers, rather than utility investors, should pay for gas lines that might never benefit consumers or the state’s economic development goals. Meanwhile, the “Intel” argument -- that the state needs pipeline-equipped sites -- falls flat when one considers that Intel Corp. wasn’t influenced by that, and in fact aims to use all-renewable power at its Ohio mega-factory site.However, there’s no question about one point: The hurriedly added pipeline provisions in HB 201 -- a bill that started out life as (and still contains) a prohibition on Ohio adopting California’s strict auto emissions standards or trying to ban cars based on their fuel source -- will plump up gas companies’ profits.As cleveland.com’s Jeremy Pelzer and Jake Zuckerman reported, the bill DeWine signed Dec. 28 would let Ohio gas utilities “charge Ohio’s 3.7 million gas customers up to $1.50 per month for as long as five years to extend gas lines to sites that could potentially be used for megaprojects, even if no buyer has been lined up yet.” That could work out to as much as $5.55 million per month.The $1.50 monthly charge was already in law but applied only to narrowly defined and authorized actual investments -- which have dwindled in number (and costs on customers’ bills).“Columbia Gas currently charges its customers 63 cents per month on their monthly bills. Both Dominion and CenterPoint charge their customers 3 cents per month,” Pelzer and Zuckerman reported. In other words, natural gas utilities were in search of a bonanza, and got one, thanks to Ohio’s obsequiously pro-utility elected officials -- and the pipeline amendments rushed into being over a roughly 36-hour period. Among those who opposed the gas utility giveaway was the Ohio Manufacturers’ Association, whose members are among the state’s biggest consumers of natural gas.The General Assembly’s excessive deference to utilities has already stoked the FirstEnergy Corp./House Bill 6 scandal and its still-ongoing federal corruption investigation. Among consequences: the convictions and imprisonment of former Ohio House Speaker Larry Householder and former Republican State Chair Matthew Borges, and the indictment of former PUCO Chair Samuel Randazzo, who awaits trial and is entitled to the presumption of innocence.DeWine signed HB 6 the same day the General Assembly passed it in July 2019. And while the General Assembly has since repealed parts of HB 6, it still requires Ohio ratepayers to shell out more than $153,000 a day to subsidize two money-losing coal-fired power plants, one in Indiana. HB 6 also squeezed Ohio’s renewable energy and energy efficiency standards in provisions that also remain in effect. The passage of House Bill 201 is evidence, were more needed, that what the utilities want from the General Assembly, and the governor, they usually get. That is, what should be a ratepayer-utility balance at the Statehouse is anything but. As a matter of fairness, that needs to change.
Marathon Petroleum gifts $20,000 to Utica Shale Academy boosting outdoor welding program — MPLX Marathon Petroleum presented the Utica Shale Academy $20,000 for personal protective equipment. Utica Shale Academy is a tuition-free publicly funded school where students are taught traditional coursework along with specialty courses targeting the trade workforce. It became Ohio’s first outdoor welding lab in 2023. "Whenever we learned about all of the great successes that the Utica Shale Academy is having and that they have had such great successes that their enrollment has really grown, we wanted to be able to help support that,” said Tina Rush, advance community relations representative for MLPX Marathon Petroleum, said. According to Utica Shale Academy Superintendent Bill Watson, the academy has implemented a work-based program for seniors. This initiative entails 35 out of their 54 senior students engaging in three days of work each week. "On average, we've graduated 50-plus kids,” Watson said. “Each year, we do a survey to follow up with how they are. And were about 60-65% placed within the industrial setting in which they've been educated.” How do the students feel about the grant money they received? "They haven't been letting us weld outside much because it's been colder and some of the kids have been complaining because it's been colder outside,” student Connor Smith said. “So, they took the money from the grants and such and bought us these jackets. So, like, whenever it gets colder, we can weld outside.” Ohio's 33rd District State Senator Michael Rulli worked with the academy when it was a concept and finds it gives young adults the chance to stay out of trouble and work toward a successful future. "That we could get kids and give them a future and give them an idea on how to live,” Rulli said. “And they could do it debt free. So, they could actually have a skill and a trade where they can make a lot of money and they don't have a student loan that’s going to strangle them.” The academy began in Salineville and has six Ohio locations.
Utica Shale Academy receives significant donation from MPLX and Marathon Petroleum -- — The Utica Shale Academy in Salineville, has become the proud recipient of a $20,000 donation from MPLX and Marathon Petroleum. This generous contribution is earmarked for fire-resistant personal protective gear, crucial for the safety and comfort of students involved in the academy’s outdoor welding program. Emery Tyson, Utica Region Operations Director for MPLX, was deeply touched by the academy’s needs and the potential impact of this donation. Tyson stated, “we deeply believe that safety comes first, so supporting personal protective equipment needs of students learning valuable trades is an honor,” highlighting the significance of the contribution in enhancing the educational environment for the students. Holly Williams, a member of the MPLX giving committee, also shared her perspective on the donation. Williams commented, “when the MPLX team read about the project, it was obvious that this was something that we wanted to support. The impact this donation will have on these students and the community will be evident now and in the years to come.,” providing insight into the committee’s decision-making process and its commitment to supporting local education initiatives. The donation was also praised by State Senator Michel Rulli, who represents the counties served by the Utica Shale Academy. Senator Rulli, an advocate for workforce development and career technical education in Appalachia, expressed his gratitude towards MPLX and Marathon Petroleum. He emphasized the Utica Shale Academy gives students an opportunity to earn a sustainable living wage without compiling college debt. Senator Rulli stated: “We could get kids and give them a future and give them an idea on how to live, and they could do it debt free. So, they could actually have a skill and a trade where they can make a lot of money and they don’t have a student loan that’s going to strangle them.” Bill Watson, the superintendent of Utica Shale Academy, and Carter Hill, the principal, expressed their gratitude to MPLX and Marathon Petroleum. Hill highlighted the academy’s commitment to providing essential equipment and supplies to its students at no additional cost. This donation from MPLX is a significant boost to the academy’s efforts to serve its 130 students from more than 15 school districts, focusing on dropout prevention and recovery through career education.
Q&A: Anti-Fracking Activist Sandra Steingraber on Scientists’ Moral Obligation to Speak Out - For many, a cancer diagnosis is a deeply personal, private matter. But when Sandra Steingraber confronted a diagnosis of cancer that is rarely found in young women as a college biology student more than 40 years ago, it set her on a life-long mission to document the intimate connection between human and environmental health and hold polluters to account. Steingraber used her scientific training to unearth a vast body of evidence linking toxic chemicals in the environment to cancer, including the bladder cancer that had upended her life. Patients often hear that cancer is a result of bad luck or poor lifestyle choices, but bladder cancer, she discovered, is a “quintessential” environmental cancer, linked to industrial chemicals and contaminants in drinking water. She marveled at the huge gap between what the science shows and what patients and the public hear about cancer causes. In 1993, Steingraber left her tenure track job to communicate scientific evidence about environmental threats to public health. She framed the potential for chemical and fossil fuel companies’ toxic products to poison people, even before they are born, as “toxic trespass.” “From the right to know and the duty to inquire, flows the obligation to act,” Steingraber wrote in her acclaimed 1997 book “Living Downstream,” the first in a trilogy on environmental health. Over the past decade, Steingraber has led efforts to halt fracking across the Marcellus Shale deposits, which run from eastern Ohio through several states to upstate New York, where she lives. Steingraber retired as a scholar in residence at Ithaca College in 2021, and now works as a senior scientist with the Science and Environmental Health Network. She co-edits a peer-reviewed compendium of scientific, medical and media findings showing the risks and harms associated with fracking and related oil and gas infrastructure, which ultimately convinced Gov. Andrew Cuomo to make New York the first state to ban fracking, in 2014. She believes fracking—which she calls the world’s “ugliest gerund”—is “linked to every part of the environmental crisis.”Steingraber received the prestigious Heinz Award in 2011 for her efforts to understand how contaminants in air, water and food endanger human health. Last month, 170 scientists led by Steingraber and seven other high-profile scientists including Peter Kalmus, Michael Mann and Rose Abramoff, urged President Joe Biden to reject a proposed liquefied natural gas terminal in Louisiana known as CP2 and similar projects to instead chart a rapid, just transition from fossil fuels.Inside Climate News spoke to Steingraber in San Francisco last month during the annual meeting of the American Geophysical Union, the world’s largest gathering of earth and space scientists. The conversation has been edited for length and clarity.
18 New Shale Well Permits Issued for PA-OH-WV Jan 1-7 | Marcellus Drilling News -- There were 18 new permits issued to drill in the Marcellus/Utica during the first full week of 2024 (Jan. 1-7), versus 24 permits issued for the final two weeks of last year (Dec. 18-31). Pennsylvania issued 9 new permits last week. Ohio issued just 1 — which was to drill a Marcellus (not a Utica) well! West Virginia issued 8 permits. Antero Resources took the top spot last week with 7 new permits, all of them issued for drilling in Wetzel County, WV. ANTERO RESOURCES | ARMSTRONG COUNTY | ASCENT RESOURCES | INDIANA COUNTY | INR | JEFFERSON COUNTY (OH) | OHIO COUNTY | SOUTHWESTERN ENERGY | WETZEL COUNTY
Southwestern, Chesapeake Energy close to $17 billion merger - source (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas producer Chesapeake Energy (CHK.O) and peer Southwestern Energy (SWN.N) are nearing a merger that would create a nearly $17 billion company, a person familiar with the matter told Reuters on Friday. The deal could come together as soon as next week provided the talks do not fall apart, the source said, requesting anonymity since talks are private. Reuters had reported in October that Chesapeake was exploring an acquisition of Southwestern. A potential deal could create a company that would overtake EQT (EQT.N) as the largest natural gas-focused exploration and production firm in the U.S. by market value, at a time when shale companies seeking scale and efficiencies are fueling a rapid consolidation in the energy sector. Shares of Southwestern and Chesapeake closed more than 7% and 3%, respectively, after the Wall Street Journal reported the talks earlier in the day. The companies did not immediately respond to requests for comment from Reuters. The deal talks come against the backdrop of a sluggish U.S. natural gas prices. U.S. natural gas futures ended 2023 with the biggest percentage decline since 2006 due to record production, ample inventories and a mild winter. Chesapeake has been shedding oil-producing assets to focus on its competence in natural gas since emerging from bankruptcy in 2021. The two companies are neighbors; most of Southwestern's production is in Appalachia's shale formations and the Haynesville basin in Louisiana, where Chesapeake also operates.
U.S. Natural Gas Mergers & Acquisitions “Scarce” and “Uneven” - Marcellus Drilling News - Apart from today’s news that Chesapeake Energy and Southwestern Energy (two huge gas drillers) are close to announcing a merger (see today’s lead story), it is oil companies in U.S. shale that seem to be at the epicenter of a hot M&A market. According to an analyst writing for Argus Media, “meaningful consolidation among US natural gas producers looks unlikely to take place soon owing to historically low, volatile commodity prices and a dearth of large privately-held operators.” The best opportunities lie with companies that have assets in the Haynesville, says the analyst. Perhaps uncoincidentally, both Chesapeake and Southwestern have major assets in the Haynesville (and the Marcellus/Utica).
Haynesville & LNG the Main Driver of Chesapeake/Southwestern Deal --- Marcellus Drilling News -- Even though separately (and together) Chesapeake Energy and Southwestern Energy own MORE assets in the Marcellus/Utica than in the Haynesville shale play, the main driver to do a merger between the two companies is the Haynesville and that play’s close proximity to LNG export facilities along the Gulf Coast. That is the conclusion of most analysts based on comments made yesterday by Chesapeake and Southwestern in announcing a $7.4 billion deal to combine the companies (see Deal is Done! Chesapeake & Southwestern Announce $7.4B Merger). So, the big question is, What does that mean for the Marcellus/Utica?
Mountain Valley Pipeline Almost Done – Makes Good Time with Weather - Marcellus Drilling News - The 303-mile Mountain Valley Pipeline (MVP), which runs from Wetzel County, WV, to Pittsylvania County, VA, is nearly done, thanks to our recent warm weather. What’s left to do? Less than one mile of “upland” pipe to install, less than 50 water/wetland crossings, and just one more compression station to finish. According to Equitrans, the majority partner and builder of MVP, the pipeline will come online in March. Finally!!!!
Boston LNG Import Terminal Still Looking for Customers to Stay Open - Marcellus Drilling News - In early December, MDN updated you on the very real possibility that Everett LNG import terminal (Boston area), which accepts and regasifies foreign-sourced natural gas, may shut down this May following the closure of New England’s biggest natural gas-fired power plant, the Mystic Generating Station in Everett, MA (see Constellation May Have to Close Boston LNG Import Terminal). As we pointed out in that post, Constellation Energy, the owner and operator of the Everett LNG terminal, is actively trying to find new contracted customers so it can keep the terminal open. The search continues. A company spokesman confirmed to Bloomberg that nothing has yet been finalized, but the clock is ticking.
Floods, winds, blizzards: Testing the Northeast's gas-guzzling grid - This week’s winter weather is a harsh reminder that a deep freeze a year ago slashed gas production in Pennsylvania, crippled pipeline networks, triggered blackouts and almost plunged New Yorkers into an energy crisis. Flood warnings, high winds and tornadoes in the East earlier in the week and an Arctic blast expected to move across the Midwest and into the Ohio Valley starting Friday are renewing concerns about what played out during Winter Storm Elliott, a monster storm that stretched from the Great Lakes to Tennessee when it reached the eastern U.S. on Dec. 23, 2022. Labeled a “bomb cyclone” because of its combination of freezing temperatures and high-velocity winds, the storm seized power grids and natural gas utilities along the Eastern Seaboard. New York City came within a day of a disaster that utility Consolidated Edison says could have cut off gas to more than a million homes and businesses. Potential scenarios were horrific: People dying from the cold, emergency evacuations and buildings wrecked by flooding from broken water pipes. To make sure pilot lights were on before turning on the gas again, utility technicians would have had to visit each customer. It might have taken a month or more to restore gas to city boroughs, Con Edison officials and federal regulators said. Elliott shut between one-quarter and one-half of the gas pipeline flows out of the Appalachian shale gas basins stretching across Pennsylvania and Ohio. That meant cuts to fuel supplies for gas turbine plants, the dominant source of electricity across the Northeast. As a result of collapsing pipeline pressure, Con Edison was pushed to the brink, according to a joint investigation of the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission and NERC. At the storm’s height, 127,000 megawatts of mostly natural gas generation went down. “America’s natural gas infrastructure and electric grid continue to be severely challenged during extreme cold weather events,” FERC and NERC said in the report on Elliott, “repeatedly jeopardizing reliability during life-threatening conditions, even when technology exists to protect the vulnerable components.” Even basic communication broke down during Elliott. As one power plant after another shut down or could not start, operators for the mid-Atlantic-based PJM Interconnection — the largest U.S. grid operator — called on backup power plants that were supposed to be ready to operate. But a stunning number of these plants could not run either. PJM operators in the Valley Forge, Pennsylvania, control center often found out only at the last minute that a plant they counted on was down, PJM said in its investigative report on Elliott. A critical issue was the loss of natural gas supplies, whether because gas equipment froze or power generators had not secured gas deliveries in advance of the storm. Some generators were not willing to pay sky-high spot market prices for gas during the storm, according to PJM. The misalignment leaves the United States facing growing extreme weather risks as executives inside the gas and power industries disagree over a path forward. And part of the issue is just how far apart the regulatory regimes governing the two industries are. One is an electric power industry with mandatory reliability rules. The other is a gas industry that flatly rejects such regulation, Robb and other officials said. “No regulatory entity is tasked with ensuring the reliability of the natural gas fuel supply,” the Elliott report noted. Acting FERC Chair Willie Phillips punctuated the report with a plea to Congress to extend federal oversight of interstate electric power networks to the gas sector. “Someone must have authority to establish and enforce gas reliability standards,” Phillips said in a statement attached to the Elliott report. Creating mandatory gas regulation would require congressional action, and although that has often been proposed, nothing has happened, noted Susan Tierney, senior adviser for the Analysis Group who co-chaired a lengthy review of grid and gas policy last summer. For one, she said, energy committees in Congress are typically packed with people representing states that produce oil and gas. “It doesn’t surprise me that it’s hard at times to gather broad bipartisan support for taking action that the gas industry doesn’t want,” Tierney said. Gas plants ‘disproportionately vulnerable to failure,’ warns Union of Concerned Scientists report Gas-fired power plants are not as reliable as grid planners believe and this is a “significant vulnerability” for the electric grid and consumers, the Union of Concerned Scientists said Tuesday in a new issue brief examining thermal generation failures in extreme temperatures. Gas plants accounted for 63% of the generating capacity forced offline by severe weather during Winter Storm Elliott in 2022, and 56% of the capacity offline during Winter Storm Uri in 2021 when almost 250 people died in Texas amid rolling blackouts, according to the issue brief, “Calling into Question the Reliability of Gas Power Plants.” The report recommends grid operators consider new approaches to accounting for the contributions of thermal resources, and for regulators to make more information available about the cause of generator failures. Some investment in weatherization may be needed, but UCS energy analyst and report co-author Paul Arbaje cautioned against the “vicious cycle” of investment in new gas-fired resources. Despite growth in renewable resources, natural gas still provides about 40% of U.S. electricity generation annually and 43% of its generating capacity, according to UCS. “The energy system’s overreliance on gas is problematic for many reasons,” said UCS Senior Energy Analyst and report co-author Mark Specht. “Our analysis found that gas plants were disproportionately vulnerable to failure.” Gas plants accounted for most of the failed capacity in all five recent extreme winter weather events, and they failed “disproportionately in comparison with gas’s percentage of total installed capacity, indicating that they are more susceptible to extreme winter weather than are other resource types.” During Winter Storm Elliott, 90.5 GW in the Eastern Interconnection failed to run or operated at reduced capacity, the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission and North American Electric Reliability Corp. concluded in a joint report. Gas-fired capacity accounted for 63% of the outages, followed by coal and lignite at 23%, oil at 4%, wind at 4%, and nuclear, solar and hydroelectric at 1% each. The UCS issue brief looks at gas plant operations in both summer and winter, as well as direct impacts and associated fuel supply issues. Gas plants face most issues in the winter, when equipment freezing can impact valves, water lines, inlet air systems and sensing lines, said UCS. Mechanical and electrical issues can also impact wiring and the mechanical wear of valves, while rubber and silicone seals can become brittle. Summer temperatures also threaten gas plant reliability, said UCS. High temperatures can reduce “both the efficiency and the maximum generating capacity of gas plants,” according to the paper, while droughts can force plants to reduce output or shut down if they are dependent on water for cooling. “Extreme weather events have become more frequent and intense putting the U.S. power grid and broader energy system under significant pressure,” Arbaje said. Gas plants are “not up to the task of supplying power when it’s needed most,” he said. And further investment in them “continues the vicious cycle of releasing heat-trapping emissions that exacerbate climate change impacts and in turn strain the electric grid.” The long-term solution is a transition to renewables while utilizing new regulatory approaches along the way. Limited information about gas plant failures is made available publicly, UCS said, including from grid operators and regulators like FERC and NERC. “Making high-quality data on grid reliability available and accessible to policymakers, researchers, and the public would help ensure that the grid is better prepared to withstand the wide array of threats to reliability,” the issue brief said.
FERC and NERC Issue Joint Recommendations in Response to Winter Storm Elliott Potentially Impacting Well Head to the Burner Tip | Steptoe & Johnson PLLC – JDSupra -- On November 7, 2023, the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) and the North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) issued a joint report including recommendations targeting the natural gas industry from the well head to power generators (the Recommendations). The report was in response to Winter Storm Elliott, an unprecedented winter weather event occurring from December 21, 2022, through December 26, 2022. During the storm, 90,500 MW of generating units went out of service, and a total of over 127,000 MW of generation was unavailable. These numbers represent an unprecedented 18% of eastern U.S. electric-generation resources. Natural gas fuel issues accounted for 20% of all causes (and 83% of outages caused by fuel issues). In the Marcellus Shale and Utica Shale formations, production dropped to just 54% during the event, the top causes of which were wellhead freeze-offs, natural gas supply chain equipment freezing, and weather-related transportation issues preventing maintenance, such as road conditions.The Recommendations focus on natural gas production and FERC and non-FERC pipelines and fall into two categories: (i) those pertaining to cold-weather infrastructure reliability; and (ii) those pertaining to natural gas and electric-generation coordination for cold-weather reliability.Recommendation 4, which is specific to natural gas production and other infrastructure cold-weather reliability, calls for legislation by Congress and state legislatures, as well as regulation by entities with jurisdiction over natural gas infrastructure reliability. Specifically, the Recommendations call for the establishment of reliability rules for natural production and gas infrastructure necessary to support the grid and natural gas local distribution companies (LDCs). The Recommendations specify that any potential legislation concerning cold-weather infrastructure reliability should address the following issues: (i) cold-weather preparedness plans, freeze protection measures, and operating measures for when extreme cold-weather periods are forecast, and during extreme cold-weather periods; (ii) the need for regional natural gas communications coordinators who can share timely operational communications throughout the natural gas infrastructure chain and communicate potential issues to, and receive grid reliability information from, grid reliability entities; and (iii) the need to require natural gas infrastructure entities to identify those natural gas infrastructure loads that should be designated as critical for priority treatment during load shed and provide criteria for identifying such critical loads.Recommendations 5-7, which address natural gas and electric-generation coordination for cold-weather reliability, provide for the following: (i) convening natural gas infrastructure entities, electric grid operators, and LDCs to enhance situational awareness and improve communications in future extreme cold-weather events; (ii) considering whether to order FERC-jurisdictional natural gas entities to provide FERC reports describing their roles in assessing and responding to natural gas supply and transportation vulnerabilities in extreme cold-weather events; and (iii) calling for an independent research group to perform studies in early 2024 to consider if additional infrastructure, such as interstate natural gas pipelines and storage, is necessary to increase electric grid and LDC reliability.
EQT CEO Toby Rice: NatGas Price Below $3.50 Means Less Production --Marcellus Drilling News - EQT CEO Toby Rice appeared on CNBC’s ‘Money Movers’ program last Friday to discuss what he expects for natural gas prices this year, what lower natural gas production means for EQT, and more. It was an interesting segment (watch it below; it is just four minutes long). Rice said, among other things, that a key issue for people to understand is that the marginal cost (i.e., the breakeven cost) in the U.S. to produce natural gas is around $3.50/MMBtu, which will hold production levels flat. Prices lower than that lead to lower production.
Natural Gas Demand Gains to Outpace Supply Growth in 2025 as Exports Rise, EIA Says - Henry Hub natural gas spot prices will average $2.60-2.70/MMBtu in 2024 before climbing further next year amid higher LNG exports and slowing production growth, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said Tuesday. In its latest monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), EIA called for a 2025 average Henry Hub natural gas spot price of $2.95. The benchmark averaged just $2.54 in 2023, a fraction of 2022’s average of $6.42, EIA data show. “Record natural gas production and storage inventories that remain above the 2019-2023 average mean that natural gas prices in our forecast are less than half the relatively high annual average price in 2022,” researchers said.
Natural Gas Producers’ Game Plan for LNG: Wait Out 2024 -Unlike the winter, the forecast for natural gas prices as 2024 arrives isn’t mild.Many industry experts predict a strong demand for LNG exports will result in a dominant U.S. position in the global gas market. However, producers are waiting for new LNG export terminals to come online, and another warm winter will spell trouble for a market already abundantly supplied. A few cold snaps hit parts of the U.S. in October and November. However, the influence of El Niño has driven a relatively warm winter in the northern U.S., which is the prime area of the country that uses gas for heating.According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), natural gas storage on Dec. 1 was at 3.719 Tcf, about 6.7% above the five-year average of 3.485 Tcf. Natural gas storage levels have been above the five-year average since January, and the price of gas has stayed under $3/MMbtu for most of 2023. Jack Weixel, senior director of East Daley Analytics (EDA), said that if the temperatures stay elevated, the price of gas is in for a rough spot around spring. “15-day weather forecasts have been mega-bearish for the market and essentially have told the market that, as far winter is concerned, December is cooked,” Weixel said. East Daley estimated that a warm winter would sap about 2 Bcf/d of incremental residential and commercial demand. “January and February are still somewhat unknown, but overall, the damage may already be done unless those months are unseasonably cold.” The natural gas market has been reacting to the weather news: January 2024 futures price fell 5.8% on Dec. 11 to $2.431/MMbtu, the lowest price since June. “What this means is that the market has come to a realization that storage will remain above the 5-year average for the foreseeable future and end-of-season March inventories could come in over 2 Tcf, or a surplus to the 5-year average of around 500 Bcf,” Weixel said. “That kind of surplus means $2 gas and, if it were to grow larger, sub-$2 gas.” Meanwhile, U.S. gas producers have not significantly decreased their output, according to the EIA. U.S. natural gas production hit a monthly record high in May 2023, with 3.869 Tcf in gross withdrawals, according to the EIA. The monthly production was been above 3.71 Tcf for eight of the first nine months of 2023, while monthly production hit that threshold five times in all of 2022. Gas production in some parts of the U.S. continued to increase into the end of 2023, despite the high inventories. EDA noted that gas samples for flows heading out of the Permian Basin hit a record 6.3 Bcf/d in November. High production may seem counterproductive when storage is full, but the natural gas industry is focusing on transitioning, according to EDA. Producers are preparing for 10 new LNG export terminals opening on the North American coastline, resulting in a dramatic increase of LNG for the global market. Capacity is expected to more than double by 2027, from 11.4 Bcf/d today to 24.3 Bcf/d. Most of the projects are in the U.S., though Canada and Mexico are adding capacity as well. Venture Global LNG targeted its Plaquemines LNG facility in Louisiana to begin exporting by the end of 2024. The Golden Pass LNG facility near Port Arthur or the Corpus Christi Stage 3 LNG facility, both located in Texas, are expected to come online in 2025. However,Cheniere Energy’s Corpus Christi facility is ahead of schedule and may start production by the end of 2024. The international demand for North American LNG came from several trends over the last few decades. Countries in Europe and Asia are seeking LNG supplies thanks to its predictable availability from the U.S. and a tightening supply of natural gas abroad, said Majed Limam, Americas’ manager for Poten & Partners’ natural gas and LNG advisory team. “LNG is naturally more flexible than pipelines. LNG can directly connect the buyers and the seller point to point,” Limam said during a seminar on the impact of global conflict on future LNG supply projects. “Also, the low-hanging fruits, the gas fields that used to be closer to the buyer, are gone.”Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022 — and the political fallout that followed — interrupted gas pipeline flows to Europe. The war has bogged down and appears to be in a long-term situation, meaning that European countries would prefer another source for the long term as well. In 2022, LNG became the primary player in the global natural gas market, taking 56% of market share versus the 44% delivered by pipelines.“Europe has learned a lesson,” Limam said. “A strong reliance on Russia for energy is dangerous. The infrastructure has been developed to provide Europe alternatives to Russia and Europe will use that.”
‘We’re the good guys’ in energy transition, says US exporter of LNG - The US’s largest exporter of liquefied natural gas has defended its industry from criticism by climate change campaigners, saying it was vital for keeping the lights on in Europe.“I would actually like to think that we’re the good guys,” Corey Grindal, chief operating officer of Cheniere Energy, told the Financial Times. “We are trying to do our part to be that safe, reliable operator that our customers have to have in order to keep the lights on.”His comments come after environmental groups such as Greenpeace attacked the LNG industry, accusing companies of using the energy crisis to lock in contracts for years to come.Europe has been a beneficiary of US LNG since Russia slashed its pipeline gas exports, with imports helping the region avert an energy crisis following the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022.Last year, Cheniere signed long-term LNG deals with Norway’s Equinor, Germany’s BASF and Austria’s OMV.The US LNG industry has also come under pressure from those concerned the long-term burning of the fossil fuel is exacerbating climate change. More than 60 congressional Democrats sent a letter to the US energy secretary Jennifer Granholm in November, urging her to consider whether issuing new export licences for LNG exports was in the interests of the US public because of its greenhouse warming effect.Gas is made up of mainly of methane, a molecule which has the capacity to store greater warmth over a shorter lifespan than carbon dioxide. The UN Environment Programme estimates methane is 80 times as potent as CO2 at trapping heat in the atmosphere in the first 20 years after it is released. At the COP28 climate summit last month, more than 300 organisations sent a joint letter calling on the Biden administration to end its support for LNG, saying that the “expansion of LNG infrastructure is locking in decades of emissions”.Grindal said his company was deploying technologies such as drones and satellites to monitor methane leaks in its infrastructure.“LNG is part of the energy transition,” he added, arguing that renewable sources of energy could not be scaled up quickly enough to remove gas from the energy mix. “LNG is going to be needed for at least the next couple of decades.”The US accounted for more than 40 per cent of Europe’s LNG imports last year, according to data from Kpler. It was also the third-largest LNG exporter in the world in 2022 and is set to claim the top spot in 2023.Cheniere said it has provided 760 LNG cargoes to Europe since Russia’s invasion, or about one in five cargos imported by the region. “The knowledge that [the European companies] needed to sign up for [long-term LNG contracts] has come through,” Grindal said.He added that Cheniere was also in talks with more European entities over LNG supply deals.
NextDecade Secures Funding for Rio Grande LNG Train Project - NextDecade Corp., through its subsidiary NextDecade LNG LLC, has secured a total of $62.5 million for various purposes including the development costs of Train 4 at the Rio Grande liquefied natural gas (LNG) facility. The company said in a media release that it has entered into a credit agreement with MUFG Bank Ltd. as lender and administrative agent that provides for a $50 million senior secured revolving credit facility and a $12.5 million interest term loan. Borrowings under the revolving credit facility may be utilized for general corporate purposes, including development costs related to Train 4 at the Rio Grande LNG facility, according to NextDecade. Borrowings under the interest term loan may be utilized to pay interest expense, fees and other expenses related to the revolving credit facility. Borrowings under the revolving credit facility and interest term loan will bear interest at SOFR or the base rate plus an applicable margin as defined in the credit agreement. The revolving credit facility and the interest term loan mature at the earlier of two years from the closing date or 10 business days after a positive final investment decision (FID) on Train 4 at the Rio Grande LNG facility. NextDecade expects the revolving credit facility to provide meaningful liquidity and capital resources as the company progresses toward a positive FID for Train 4. NextDecade has started the front-end engineering and design and engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) contract processes with Bechtel Energy Inc. for Train 4 and expects to finalize the EPC contract in the first half of 2024. The company said it is progressing numerous discussions with potential buyers of LNG to provide commercial support for Train 4 and is targeting a positive FID of Train 4 in the second half of 2024. The company made an FID to construct the first three liquefaction trains (Phase 1) at its 27 million tonnes per annum (MMtpa) Rio Grande LNG export facility in Brownsville, Texas, in July last year.
Calcasieu Pass LNG Needs ‘Further Commissioning’ Before Fulfilling Contracts, Venture Global Says - Venture Global LNG Inc. told regulators Calcasieu Pass LNG has yet to meet requirements to begin fulfilling deliveries to contract holders, pushing back against efforts from its long-term offtakers to force disclosure around the years-long commissioning process. In December, BP plc filed a request with FERC requesting it compel Virginia-based Venture Global to release confidential information about the extended commissioning process at Calcasieu Pass. BP and other long-term offtakers of the project, including Edison SpA, Galp Energia SA, Shell plc and Repsol SA, have accused the company of hiding behind alleged technical issues to delay sending contracted cargoes in favor of selling its own spot volumes. Shell and, mostly recently, Portugal’s Galp have asked the Federal Energy...
EQT Advances Natural Gas Export Strategy with Texas LNG Tolling Agreement - Glenfarne Energy Transition LLC has inked a tentative tolling agreement with EQT Corp. as the U.S. natural gas production leader progresses its LNG exposure strategy. Under the heads of agreement disclosed Thursday, EQT could have access to 0.5 million metric tons/year (mmty) in liquefaction services for 15 years from the first train at Glenfarne’s proposed liquefied natural gas facility in Brownsville, TX. “This is an important milestone for Texas LNG, with additional agreements to be announced in the near-term as we progress towards a final investment decision (FID),” Glenfarne CEO Brendan Duval said. Glenfarne has guided that it could reach FID and begin construction this year, placing delivery of first cargoes sometime in 2028.
Biden’s aides weigh climate test for natural gas exports - The Biden administration is launching a review that could tap the brakes on the booming U.S. natural gas export industry — a move that threatens to pit the president’s climate ambitions against his foreign policy agenda. The outcome of the review could have big implications for the fossil fuel industry, U.S. clout as an energy superpower and the credibility of President Joe Biden’s climate pledges — and his reelection hopes in November. The review being led by the Department of Energy will examine whether regulators should take climate change into account when deciding whether a proposed gas export project meets the national interest, according to two people familiar with the action who were granted anonymity to discuss deliberations that have not yet been publicly acknowledged. U.S. gas exports have jumped four-fold during the past decade as production has surged, turning the United States into the world’s largest natural gas exporter and helping Europe replace Russian shipments after Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine. But Biden also faces growing pressure from environmental groups to live up to his pledge to transition away from fossil fuels — something the U.S. also promised to do at last month’s climate summit in Dubai. The possibility of slowing or halting that export growth came as good news to environmental groups even as national security hawks warned against disrupting a trade they say serves America’s geopolitical interests. It comes as the Energy Department is weighing whether to issue a permit for a massive gas export plant in Louisiana known as CP2, which green activists have derided as a “carbon bomb.” “We’re really hoping that DOE will pause any new permits for industry, because we know that the Biden administration really needs a climate win and in order for them to win” the 2024 election, said Roishetta Ozane, the founder of environmental group Vessel Project of Louisiana, whose hometown of Sulphur, La., is within an hour’s drive of three LNG plants. “If these politicians want to be elected or re-elected in this upcoming presidential election, they’re going to have to make some bold choices and some bold moves.” The Department of Energy, which is responsible for issuing the export permits, will reassess whether it is properly accounting for the climate impacts from proposed projects, as well as the national security and the domestic economic consequences, a senior administration official told POLITICO. People familiar with the review process said Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm; Deputy Energy Secretary David Turk; Brad Crabtree, assistant secretary for DOE’s Office of Fossil Energy and Carbon Management; White House clean energy adviser John Podesta; and National Climate Adviser Ali Zaidi, among others, were involved in the discussions.
Wintry Weather No Match from Strong Global Natural Gas Supplies – A bitter cold snap gripping much of Europe wasn’t enough Monday to sustain a three-day rally in natural gas prices there as strong imports have kept the continent well supplied. Title Transfer Facility prices fell across the curve Monday, when the prompt month closed 9% lower to finish near $10/MMBtu. Prices jumped last week ahead of the wintry weather that’s settled in over most of Europe. While the cold is forecast to continue over the next two weeks, the weather pattern is expected to weaken slightly. The outlook has been dimmed further by ample supplies, with storage stocks at 85% of capacity, compared to the five-year average of 72%.
US natgas prices climb 2% on big storage withdrawal, record demand forecasts -(Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures climbed about 2% on Thursday on a bigger-than-expected storage withdrawal last week and forecasts that extreme cold in coming days will boost gas demand to record highs. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said utilities pulled 140 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas out of storage during the week ended Jan. 5. That was more than the 119-bcf decrease analysts forecast in a Reuters poll, and compares with a withdrawal of 23 bcf in the same week last year and a five-year (2019-2023) average decline of 89 bcf. Meteorologists forecast temperatures over the weekend across most of the Lower 48 states will drop to well below normal levels, especially in the middle of the country. The frigid weather is expected to boost gas demand to record highs and has already put power and gas prices on track to hit their highest levels since December 2022. With the cold already freezing the Pacific Northwest, next-day power prices at the Mid-Columbia hub soared by 741% to a 16-month high of $850 per megawatt hour (MWh) for Thursday. The cold has also started to limit gas supplies by freezing oil and gas wells, pipes and other equipment in the Rockies (Colorado and Wyoming) and Bakken shale (North Dakota). In February 2021, massive "freeze-offs" of wells cut gas supplies for heating and power generation in Texas and other U.S. Central states, forcing rotating power outages because there was not enough electricity available with so many power plants shut due to a lack of fuel and other problems. During Winter Storm Elliott in December 2022, it happened in Appalachia. Front-month gas futures for February delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 5.8 cents, or 1.9%, to settle at $3.097 per million British thermal units (mmBtu). The front-month increase boosted the premium of futures for February over March to a one-year high of around 57 cents per mmBtu. In other news, Chesapeake Energy said it would buy smaller rival Southwestern Energy in an all-stock transaction valued at $7.4 billion, a deal that would enable the second-largest U.S. gas producer to take the top spot from current leader EQT. SUPPLY AND DEMAND Financial company LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 states fell to 107.1 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in January, down from a monthly record of 108.5 bcfd in December. Daily output was on track to drop by 3.7 bcfd over the last four days to a preliminary 10-week low of 104.5 bcfd on Thursday. Those output losses were small compared with losses of 19.6 bcfd during Winter Storm Elliott in December 2022 and 20.4 bcfd during the February freeze in 2021. Meteorologists projected U.S. weather would switch from mostly warmer than normal now to colder than normal from Jan. 13-21 before turning back to mostly warmer than normal from Jan. 22-26. As heating demand soars, LSEG forecast U.S. gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, would jump from 136.5 bcfd this week to 160.5 bcfd next week. Those forecasts were lower than LSEG's outlook on Wednesday. On a daily basis, total U.S. gas demand, including exports, was on track to reach 162.5 bcfd on Jan. 14, 167.6 bcfd on Jan. 15 and 175.4 bcfd on Jan. 16, according to LSEG. Traders noted it would be unusual for gas use to hit a record on Jan. 15 because it is the Martin Luther King Day U.S. holiday when many businesses and government offices will be shut for a long weekend. Those daily demand forecasts would tie and then top the current all-time high of 162.5 bcfd set on Dec. 23, 2022, during Winter Storm Elliott, according to federal energy data from S&P Global Commodities Insights.
US natgas prices soar 7% to 10-week high ahead of frigid cold and record demand (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures soared about 7% to a 10-week high on Friday ahead of the long Martin Luther King Day holiday weekend when extreme cold is expected to boost gas demand to record highs while also cutting gas supplies by freezing wells. In recent years, the combination of soaring demand for gas for heating and power generation at the same time that supplies of the fuel are declining due to freezing wells during massive storms has threatened the reliability of electric and gas systems. This has forced electricity grid operators and utilities to impose rotating outages because many power plants cannot operate due to a lack of fuel or other reasons. That is what happened in Texas and other U.S. Central states in February 2021 when millions were left without power, water and heat for days, and during Winter Storm Elliott in December 2022 when dozens of power plants shut across the eastern half of the country and New York City's gas supply system was close to collapse. Front-month gas futures NGc1 for February delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 21.6 cents, or 7.0%, to settle at $3.313 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), their highest close since Nov. 3. That kept the front-month in technically overbought territory for a second day in a row and boosted the premium of futures for February over March NGG24-H24 to 72 cents per mmBtu, their highest since mid- December 2022. That also put the front-month up by 15% for a second week in a row. In a sign of what may be coming, extreme cold was already freezing the Pacific Northwest region. That kept next-day power prices at the Mid-Columbia hub EL-PK-MIDC-SNL in Oregon at a 16-month high of around $850 per megawatt hour for a second day in a row, while next-day gas prices at the AECO hub NG-ASH-ALB-SNL in Alberta, Canada, soared to a near one-year high of $2.68 per mmBtu. For comparison, Mid Columbia power prices averaged $81 per MWh and AECO gas prices averaged $1.86 per mmBtu in 2023. Financial company LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 states fell to 106.9 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in January, down from a monthly record of 108.5 bcfd in December. But on a daily basis, output was on track to drop by 3.6 bcfd over the past five days to a preliminary 10-week low of 104.6 bcfd on Friday. Those output losses were small compared with losses of 19.6 bcfd during Winter Storm Elliott in December 2022 and 20.4 bcfd during the February freeze in 2021. Meteorologists projected the weather in the Lower 48 states would switch from mostly warmer than normal now to colder than normal from Jan. 13-22 before turning back to mostly warmer than normal from Jan. 23-27. LSEG forecast U.S. gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, would jump from 136.5 bcfd this week to 160.1 bcfd next week when the weather turns frigid before dropping to 149.6 bcfd in two weeks when milder weather returns. The forecast for next week was lower than LSEG's outlook on Thursday. On a daily basis, even though many U.S. businesses and government offices will shut for the long Martin Luther King Day holiday weekend, total U.S. gas demand, including exports, was on track to reach 165.9 bcfd on Jan. 15, 174.3 bcfd on Jan. 16 and 172.9 bcfd on Jan. 17, according to LSEG. Those daily demand forecasts would top the current all-time high of 162.5 bcfd set on Dec. 23, 2022, during Winter Storm Elliott, according to federal energy data from S&P Global Commodities Insights.
Flint officials investigate oil spill in Flint River | WSBT— Officials are investigating a chemical spill in the Flint River.On Monday, January 8, a chemical spill was reported at 11:50 a.m.Around 50 gallons of oil spilled into the Flint River.Flint Fire Department Battalion Chief Kwame Hogan says that they are working on identifying what happened to cause the spill.The source is unknown.However, the spill is contained and investigation continues.
Crews cleaning up oil spill in Flint River - Authorities are cleaning another oil spill in the Flint River on Monday. The spill was reported around 11:45 a.m. Monday in the 1400 block of James P. Cole Boulevard near the former Buick City site. The city of Flint estimates about 50 gallons of oil entered the river from an undisclosed source. Emergency crews stopped the flow of contaminants and were working with a hazardous materials response agency to clean it up. Absorbent booms have been placed across the river to soak up any remaining oil. City officials say Flint's municipal water remains safe because none of it draws water from the Flint River. This is at least the third oil spill in the Flint River over the past year and a half. The most significant spill in June 2022 involved nearly 40,000 gallons of oil that came from Lockhart Chemical on James P. Cole Boulevard. A second spill in late June 2023 involved about 10 gallons of petroleum that entered the river from an outfall pipe near the Utah Avenue Bridge in Flint.
USA Energy Dept in Conditional Commitment to Support Methane Monitoring In a statement sent to Rigzone, the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE) Loan Programs Office (LPO) announced a conditional commitment to LongPath Technologies Inc for an up to $189 million loan guarantee “to support the fabrication and installation of a real time methane emissions monitoring network”. The location of the monitoring network is in the Permian, Denver-Julesburg, and Anadarko oil and gas production basins across Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, Colorado, North Dakota, and New Mexico, the LPO highlighted in the statement. “LongPath’s Active Emissions Overwatch System project aims to scale to cover 25 million acres of land with large-area remote methane monitors, providing emissions detection, location, and quantification services for tens of thousands of oil and gas sites through a subscription service,” the LPO noted. “If finalized, the network is expected to prevent methane emissions equivalent to at least six million tons of carbon dioxide annually - that is like taking 1.3 million gasoline powered vehicles off the road - by enabling subscribers to identify and respond to methane leaks quickly,” it added. “The project at its peak is anticipated to create an estimated 35 construction jobs and 266 operations jobs for regional workers, including trained experts to install and maintain the equipment, and provide competitive benefits,” it continued. The LPO noted in the statement that the project must satisfy certain conditions, which it said may include reaching technical, legal, commercial, contractual, or other milestones, before the Department issues a final loan. This project underscores the Biden-Harris Administration’s “commitment to dramatically reducing methane emissions” the LPO said in the statement. It added that, in 2023, the administration took more than 100 actions under the U.S. Methane Emissions Reduction Action Plan and said Biden’s Investing in America agenda is accelerating adoption of cutting-edge technologies and tools to address and mitigate methane emissions “and helping the U.S. unlock a win-win opportunity for communities and the economy”. The LPO also highlighted that its latest announcement is aligned with the goals of the Methane Emissions Reduction Program. LongPath’s technology was developed with the University of Colorado and the National Institutes of Standards and Technology (NIST), with support from DOE’s Advanced Research Projects Agency–Energy (ARPA-E) and other DOE grants, the LPO pointed out in the statement. It uses an eye-safe laser to accurately identify molecules in the air, including greenhouse gases like methane, the LPO said, adding that a single laser can continuously monitor nearly eight square miles for emissions, “providing updates of the full area as often as every two hours”. In June last year, LongPath, which describes itself as a leader in methane detection and data services, announced that it would be “substantially expanding its relationship with Vital Energy, a fast-growing pure-play operator in the Permian Basin”. “The expansion demonstrates the strong commitment of LongPath to reduce emissions while supporting profitable growth throughout the upstream and midstream sectors of the energy industry,” the company added in a statement posted on its website at the time. “Utilizing LongPath’s full-facility coverage methane detection solution, this expanded partnership will provide reliably accurate, real-time detection and quantification of methane emissions. This advanced technology aims to deliver considerable emissions reduction and sustainability progress for the oil and gas sector,” it continued.
US approves $189 million loan for real-time methane oil and monitoring (Reuters) - The Department of Energy's loan office on Friday conditionally approved a $189 million loan to support the build-out of a methane monitoring network in key oil-producing basins that would provide real-time data for tens of thousands of oil and gas sites, which it estimates could prevent the equivalent of at least 6 millions tons of carbon dioxide per year. Houston-based Long Path Technologies will use the loan to deploy its Emissions Overwatch System across 24,000 square miles (62,160 square km) in several states. The technology uses lasers - placed on 50-foot (15-meter) towers - to monitor areas for methane leaks. Unlike optical gas imaging, which takes less frequent measurements of methane, the Long Path system can continuously monitor 8-square mile (21-square km) areas, which could provide updates every two hours and notify operators in the event of a leak, according to DOE's Loan Program Office. Some of Long Path's current subscribers include oil and gas firms like Conoco Phillips and pipeline company Williams. The DOE said the loan is the latest commitment by the Biden administration to tackle methane, a potent, short-lived greenhouse gas that can leak into the atmosphere undetected from drill sites, gas pipelines and other oil and gas equipment. Methane has more warming potential than carbon dioxide and breaks down in the atmosphere faster, so reining in methane emissions can have a more immediate impact on limiting climate change. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency last month unveiled regulations that would ban routine flaring of natural gas produced by newly drilled oil wells, require oil companies to monitor for leaks from well sites and compressor stations, and establishes a program to use third-party remote sensing to detect large methane releases from so-called "super emitters" in places like the Permian Basin.
Federal rule forces oil states to cut planet-warming methane emissions -Within two years, a new federal rule will force oil- and gas-producing states to crack down on methane gas emissions — a major driver of climate change. A handful of states already have rules that force drillers to increase monitoring and upgrade equipment, which advocates say provided an effective template for the federal action. But many other states will be starting from scratch. In those states, some officials and oil industry leaders say the burden on regulators and fossil fuel producers may outweigh the benefits of reduced emissions. “Is creating more paperwork going to have the effect the EPA hopes it will have in reducing methane?” said Matthew Bingert, manager of the oil and gas program in North Dakota’s Division of Air Quality. While carbon dioxide is emitted in far higher quantities, methane is a much more potent greenhouse gas — making it responsible for more than a quarter of the warming that the planet is currently experiencing. It also breaks down much faster in the atmosphere, meaning reducing methane emissions can have a more immediate impact than reducing carbon dioxide, which lingers for longer. “That makes it a huge opportunity,” said Jon Goldstein, senior director of regulatory and legislative affairs with the Environmental Defense Fund, a legal advocacy group. “If we can get after those emissions quickly, we can start to bend the curve on the climate problem quickly.” Oil and gas operations are the largest industrial emitter of methane. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency estimates that its new rule will prevent 58 million tons of methane emissions by 2038 — equivalent to the carbon emissions produced by the entire power sector in 2021. Federal officials say the rule also will limit toxic pollutants that affect human health in the neighborhoods surrounding drilling operations and refineries. While some Democratic-led states have gotten a head start on methane regulations, other oil-producing states, many under GOP control, say the new requirements are going to require massive amounts of data collection and analysis for both companies and regulators — and it’s unclear how that work will be funded.
LNG, Mexico Exports Driving South Texas Natural Gas Demand Growth - LNG and Mexico exports are expected to underpin U.S. natural gas demand growth over the coming years, with the Agua Dulce hub in South Texas playing a critical supply role. In turn, both markets are building out infrastructure to ensure access to molecules and capacity in an increasingly competitive and globalized gas market. “Feed gas demand is, and will continue to be, a key component for the Agua Dulce hub,” Wood Mackenzie natural gas analyst Ricardo Falcón told NGI. “But natural gas outlets in the South Texas border with Mexico have become an increasingly competing element.”
Fort Worth Hotel Explosion Likely Caused by Natural Gas Leak, Injures 21 - An explosion Monday afternoon at a historic hotel in downtown Fort Worth, TX, which preliminary reports said was caused by natural gas, injured at least 21 people, but no fatalities had been reported as of early Tuesday, authorities said. The blast occurred at the Sandman Hotel in the heart of the business district downtown. Multiple 911 calls were received at about 3:32 p.m. CT Monday for a fire at the hotel, said Fort Worth Fire Department (FWFD) spokesperson Craig Trojacek. Authorities once on the scene switched the emergency to an explosion. One person was said to be in critical condition. Crews from Atmos Energy Corp., the natural gas utility that serves the area, were on the scene as well, Trojacek added. “We have not made 100% determination, but we wanted to..."
Victoria County officials first learned of port spill from anonymous caller - Three hundred barrels of a mixture of crude oil and diesel were spilled at the Port of Victoria on Wednesday, according to a port news release issued Friday. The Texas Commission on Environmental Quality’s air monitoring had not detected any levels of concern to the public, Richard Richter, media relations specialist, said. Victoria County emergency officials said Friday there was no need for residents to shelter in place or take precautions. “TCEQ identified the source of an area-wide odor late yesterday, which was a spill of petroleum-based material from a tank at the Shamrock Victoria Port Terminal,” Richter said. TCEQ’s investigation into this incident is ongoing. The agency is overseeing remedial activities at the site and continuing to conduct air monitoring. While impacts to the adjacent waterway have not been identified, as a precaution, contractors have set up containment booms around potential runoff points. All TCEQ activities related to this spill response will be reported through the incident command which is currently being initiated.” Shamrock Products is a tenant and private terminal at the Port of Victoria. Shamrock Products did not answer questions, including how the spill occurred, Friday. Victoria County emergency officials first learned of the spill Thursday evening when an anonymous person called the emergency dispatch line, reporting a spill at the Port of Victoria, Emergency Management Coordinator Rick McBrayer said. Officials investigated and determined a spill had in fact occurred, releasing information to the public Thursday night. It was not until Friday morning, McBrayer said, that his office was finally notified by the Texas Commission on Environmental Quality of a spill at the port. “The incident was not immediately reported to local officials in Victoria. Some residents reported strong odors throughout the region and various local and state agencies actively began conducting air quality tests throughout a seven-county area,” according to a news release issued by the Office of Emergency Management. Commission officials could not reached Friday evening to answer why the spill was reported to McBrayer’s office on Friday morning. “They have a duty and obligation to report when they have a major spill or incident,” McBrayer said.
Victoria County residents say pungent smell from port oil spill was unbearable, caused nausea, headaches -- For decades, the Crescent Valley community, the industrial facilities and the Port of Victoria have had a symbiotic relationship. However, in many community members’ eyes, as a result of Shamrock Products’ oil spill at the Port of Victoria and failure to notify them, that trust has been broken and will take time and effort to repair. “One of these days, we’re going to end up dead out here,” said Leonard Urban, 74, of Victoria, on Saturday. The spill was contained inside a berm and did not enter the Victoria Barge Canal, according to a Shamrock Products news release. Late Wednesday afternoon, “a valve on a Shamrock Products petroleum product storage tank was damaged,” spilling about 300 barrels of petroleum products, which included crude oil, fuel oil, cracked hydrocarbons and a chemical known as mercaptan, according to the release. Shamrock had not said how the storage tank was damaged, as of Saturday evening. Mercaptan, a chemical commonly used in petroleum refining, has a strong, pungent smell and was responsible for the odor spread by wind through parts of the Crossroads and Coastal Bend. Saturday night, the smell was present inside Victoria. Some reported the scent as far south as Refugio County during the week. “We understand there are complaints of a cat-urine/ammonia odor and rumors of a release of product with H2S (hydrogen sulfide). None of our products contained ammonia or detectable levels of H2S,” according to the release. In the release, Shamrock said they notified authorities of the spill but did not say when. On Friday, Victoria County Emergency Management Coordinator Rick McBrayer said his office learned of the spill from an anonymous caller on Thursday, a day after the spill occurred. Mercaptan is an organic chemical containing sulfur and is detectable at low levels as small as 10 parts per billion or 0.000001% of air. Methanethiol is one of the main chemicals in bad breath and flatulence, according to The Human Metabolome Database. The recommended exposure level by the National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health for Methanethiol is 0.5 parts per million for a 15-minute ceiling, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The chemical was detected in the air at the parts per billion range, according to Shamrock. As of Sunday morning, the Shamrock Victoria Port Terminal was implementing odor control measures at the facility, according to a Texas Commission on Environmental Quality news release on Facebook. The investigation into the incident was still ongoing. “While impacts to the adjacent waterway have not been identified, as a precaution, contractors have set up containment booms around potential runoff points,” according to the news release. The Crescent Valley community is two miles from the Port of Victoria and Shamrock’s terminal. The community was built as an oil camp and continued to develop as the chemical plants came in, Urban said. He raised his family there. His son’s wedding reception was in the area, and when one of the plants was operated by DuPont Chemical, those at the port went out of their way to notify the community if something went wrong, even if it wasn’t that individual company’s responsibility, he said. That included an alarm system that stands on the edge of the neighborhood. “They didn’t let us know a damn thing,” Urban said, adding, “I walked outside last night, and it literally knocked me to my knees.” Late into Saturday afternoon, the smell lingered in the air and hit drivers as they crossed over U.S. 59 going toward the Port of Victoria. Many in the community reported having headaches, feeling nausea and experiencing burning eyes. They also said the smell permeated their homes. This included Urban’s son Steven Urban, 49, Victoria, who lives a few blocks away from his father. “Last night was horrible. The house, our vehicles, the insides of them still smell like that and everything else. I woke up this morning having trouble breathing,” Steven Urban said. “I didn’t even want to go to sleep because I was afraid I wouldn’t wake up.” Saturday afternoon, the smell still permeated everything in their house, including his continuous positive airway pressure machine he uses while he sleeps, he said. Even when exposed to other chemical smells, residents, such as Dena Urban, 52, who works at Dow Chemical, went to work Saturday. The smell was strong in her vehicle. “I got finished with work and got in, and it just hit me like a truck,” she said. For some, the smell and the effects of the scent were too much to bear, and they decided to leave their homes in favor of a hotel room, Steven Urban said. This included the Rhodes family, who, late Friday night, decided to take their family of five and pack into a two-bed hotel room in Victoria. Everyone in their family felt headaches as early as Wednesday night, said Thomas Rhodes, 53, of Victoria. Thursday, the family started to smell it and asked family friend Larry Casdorph, 74, of Victoria, for advice, Rhodes said. “They came up to the house, and you could just smell it all over them. It was bad,” Casdorph said. Casdorph previously smelled it on the highway as he went through Tivoli the same day and went to his home in Crescent Valley to get a better sense of the situation. He wasn’t there more than 30 minutes and his home reeked as much as the Rhodes family, he said. Their symptoms got worse to the point their three sons were feeling chest tightness Friday evening, Rhodes said. “At that point, we decided to make the call and leave,” Rhodes said.
Another Flint Hills Resources oil spill -- Late Friday night at about 10:30 pm, nearly 2,915 barrels of oil leaked from a tank inside the Flint Hills Resources (FHR) terminal in Ingleside. The oil was contained onsite and did not impact any body of water in the area, according to the report that was made to the Corpus Christi Office of Emergency Management. FHR sprayed the area with a sealing foam blanket to trap the odor of the leaked crude oil. They did say that there may still be a smell in the immediate area. “Some of our crews first smelled and then saw a release from tank seventy-five," Director of Public Affairs for Flint Hill Resources Andy Saenz said. "We immediately put our protocols in place and called emergency responders who were able to meet us out here at the site. We were able to shut the leak down completely and then we started our cleanup efforts so that’s what we’re undertaking now.” Government agencies have continued to monitor the air quality in the surrounding area and have said that all readings are normal. FHR also said that it is using fence line and mobile air monitors to monitor the air quality. "The oil stayed exactly where it was supposed to stay. This is a containment area that’s built around the tanks itself. When the oil came out, it stayed in that general area," Saenz said. The cause of the incident is under investigation and was reported to local, state, and federal authorities according to a statement from Flint Hills Resources.
APA Snaps Up Callon in $4.5B Deal - APA Corporation and Callon Petroleum Company have entered into a definitive agreement under which APA will acquire Callon in an all-stock transaction valued at approximately $4.5 billion, inclusive of Callon’s net debt, the companies announced in a joint statement recently. Under the terms of the transaction, each share of Callon common stock will be exchanged for a fixed ratio of 1.0425 shares of APA common stock, the statement noted, adding that the deal is expected to be accretive to all key financial metrics “and add to APA’s inventory of high quality, short-cycle opportunities”. “Callon’s assets provide additional scale to APA’s operations across the Permian Basin, most notably in the Delaware Basin, where Callon has nearly 120,000 acres,” the joint statement highlighted. “On a pro forma basis, total company production exceeds 500,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day and enterprise value increases to more than $21 billion,” it added. APA is expected to issue approximately 70 million shares of common stock in the transaction, according to the statement, which highlighted that, after closing, existing APA shareholders are expected to own approximately 81 percent of the combined company and existing Callon shareholders are expected to own approximately 19 percent. “APA expects to retire the existing debt at Callon and replace it with APA term loan facilities totaling $2.0 billion,” the statement noted. “The term loan facilities are expected to offer improved optionality for near-term debt reduction. JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A., Citigroup Global Markets Inc. and Wells Fargo Bank, National Association have jointly provided $2.0 billion of committed financing for the deal,” it added. The transaction has been unanimously approved by the boards of directors of both APA and Callon and is expected to close during the second quarter of 2024, subject to customary closing conditions, termination, or expiration of the waiting period under the Hart-Scott-Rodino Antitrust Improvements Act of 1976, and approval of the transaction by shareholders of both APA and Callon, the joint statement said. Upon the closing of the transaction, a representative from Callon will join the APA board, according to the statement. APA’s executive management team will lead the combined company with the headquarters remaining in Houston, Texas, the statement revealed.
Fast-Growing 'Carbon-Neutral' Energy Company Ramps Up Oil and Gas Production --It’s not a household name, but Civitas Resources has quickly become a dominant energy producer in Colorado and one of the fastest growing in the country. In turn, it’s come to exemplify a number of trends in oil and gas — from the growing role of private equity in extending the life of fossil fuels to the adoption of an approach that balances clean energy initiatives with fossil fuel production to better prepare for the inevitable transition to a green economy. The company claims to be the “first carbon-neutral energy producer” in Colorado, which is one of the biggest oil and gas producing states in the country. While its business model has been hailed by Wall Street analysts, its sustainability commitments have been questioned by environmentalists.Formed in 2021 amid a slew of mergers and acquisitions involving four of Colorado’s top nine oil producers, Civitas has kept growing, and it operated the largest number of wells over the last four years in the state’s largest oil and gas basin.Uncertainty about the fossil fuel industry’s future amid a warming climate — attributed chiefly to carbon dioxide and methane emissions from combustion of its products — is forcing companies like Civitas to obtain financing from less risk-averse institutional investors like public pensions and private equity. Its ownership structure stands out from traditional producers for its unusual mix – a Canadian pension plan (20% stake), private equity firm (Kimmeridge Energy Management Company LLC (14.5%), asset management behemoths BlackRock Inc. (11.7%) and the Vanguard Group (10.6%) and financial services giant Fidelity Investments (6.6%), a Capital & Main review of federal filings found. Private equity is known for prioritizing high rates of return and exiting investments quickly, and its increasing role in financing fossil fuel production in Colorado and around the country is raising concerns among environmentalists who question its claims to be reducing emissions. These firms in part funded a flurry of merger and acquisition activity in the industry since 2019, as companies sought out untapped hydrocarbons to meet rising demand for energy. Deal value in 2021 hit $192 billion, far exceeding the figures for 2015, 2016, 2018 and 2020, with many wells shifting from publicly traded companies with emissions reduction commitments to private firms with less robust sustainability plans, according to an analysis by the Environmental Defense Fund. Civitas and another big private equity-owned Colorado producer, Caerus Oil and Gas, have been criticized for not properly accounting for their emissions of carbon and methane. Recently, the asset shuffle in the industry has intensified as the U.S. solidified its lead as the world’s largest oil and gas supplier, with production hitting 12 billion barrels a day in 2022, outpacing Saudi Arabia and Russia. Meanwhile, scientists warn such hydrocarbons must remain underground to limit the global temperature increase to 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) — warming that they say will lead to more intense fires, floods and drought. The window is narrowing.
US oil lobby launches eight-figure ad blitz amid record fossil fuel extraction - The American oil lobby has launched an eight-figure media campaign this week promoting the idea that fossil fuels are “vital” to global energy security, alarming climate experts.“US natural gas and oil play a key role in supplying the world with cleaner, more reliable energy,” the new initiative’s website says.Big oil ‘fully owned the villain role’ in 2023, the hottest year ever recorded The campaign comes amid record fossil fuel extraction in the US, and as the industry is attempting to capitalize on the war in Gaza to escalate production even further, climate advocates say.Launched Tuesday by the nation’s top fossil fuel interest group, the Lights on Energy campaign will work to “dismantle policy threats” to the sector, the American Petroleum Institute (API) CEO, Mike Sommers, told CNN in an interview this week.The ad blitz – which uses images of farm vehicles, footballers under floodlights and concert goers holding phones lit up – comes after US oil production reached a record high in 2023, which was also the hottest year ever recorded.“We’re already moving in the wrong direction on fossil fuels,” said Timmons Roberts, professor of environment and sociology at Brown University. “They want to push us further.”Roberts said the new ad blitz is rife with the kinds of “discourses of climate delay” that the fossil fuel industry commonly uses to thwart climate action, as documented in a 2020 study he co-authored on the topic. A video ad posted on Tuesday, for instance, says “demand for energy is growing and so is the need for American oil and natural gas”, positioning the sector as essential to continued human flourishing – a form of discourse Roberts and his co-authors call an “appeal to wellbeing”.In his CNN interview, Sommers said clean energy can currently only play a limited role. “Renewable sources have a role to play, but oil and natural gas will be needed for decades,” he said.In doing so, he employed a second discursive strategy known as “change is impossible”, which denies the ability for large-scale transformation, Roberts said, adding that the statement may be a “self fulfilling prophecy”, as fossil fuel companies still invest minimally in carbon-free energy.The claim also ignores copious evidence that the world can begin to phase out fossil fuels, and must do so to avert the worst consequences of the climate crisis, said Caleb Heeringa, campaign director of Gas Leaks, a nonprofit attempting to counter pro-gas messaging.“We aren’t saying we can turn off the spigot tomorrow,” he said. “But [the industry] is trying to expand the fossil fuel system, expand pipelines, expand fracking, and make more of our economy and our existence dependent on fossil fuels, even though clean energy is advancing at a rapid rate.”The campaign also states that increased gas usage is a “key reason” that US carbon emissions have fallen, employing a tactic Roberts calls “fossil fuel solutionism” by framing polluting energy as a climate solution.The ad blitz states that gas use led to a drop in CO2 emissions, but fails to mention the attendant rise in emissions of methane, a greenhouse gas 80 times more planet-heating than carbon dioxide in the short term, Heeringa said. It also refers to the “reliability” of gas-powered energy, “despite significant gas system failures” during weather emergencies such as 2022’s winter storm Elliott and 2021’s winter storm Uri.The campaign comes amid industry claims that Israel’s war in Gaza will threaten energy security by inhibiting the flow of oil out of the region.“This should be a real concern, I think, to every American,” Sommers told CNN.It seems like an attempt to take advantage of a crisis to maximize profit, said Patrick Galey, a senior fossil fuels investigator at Global Witness. In the wake of the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022, the industry similarly called to expand domestic extraction, as Global Witness tracked. “Evidence suggests the fossil fuel lobby are not letting the latest crisis – this time in the Red Sea due to Israel’s carpet bombing of Gaza – go to waste, either,” said Galey. “Until countries rapidly and justly phase out fossil fuels, consumers will continue to be prey to the whims of despotic petrostates and feeding frenzies from the oil and gas lobbies whenever the next crisis hits.”
Oil lobbyist helps craft testimony for small producers - Two small oil and gas operators testifying before a House subcommittee against EPA’s new methane fee Wednesday had more in common than their vocations: Their prepared remarks were both at least partially co-authored by the same oil lobbyist.While it’s not uncommon for industry representatives to assist with congressional testimony, collaboration between each of the witnesses and the same industry heavyweight could complicate an argument Republicans reiterated throughout the hearing that these witnesses should not be lumped in with the industry monolith so frequently vilified by Democrats.“These companies are not ‘Big Oil,’” declared Rep. Bill Johnson (R-Ohio), the chair of the House Energy and Commerce Subcommittee on Environment, Manufacturing and Critical Minerals. “On average they employ just 12 people, and this suite of methane regulations will crush these producers.” Johnson presided over a hearing to probe alleged “EPA overreach” in its new rule that would compel producers to upgrade equipment and proactively search for existing methane leaks — mandates critics contend are unworkable.The first portion of the hearing featured Joe Goffman, the acting head of the EPA air office who has been awaiting Senate confirmation since March 2022 to serve in the role in an official capacity.Later, lawmakers heard from a trio of small oil and gas operators, including Michael Oestmann of Tall City Exploration and Patrick Montalban of Montalban Oil and Gas Operations, who bemoaned the ways in which the new regulations would do more harm than good.Portions of their prepared remarks, which were submitted to the Energy and Commerce Committee and posted online earlier this week, were nearly identical.“While oil demand is still strong and will be for decades … it seems clear that a direct result of the implementation of these rules will be to ship jobs, revenue, and a key source of supply to many of our adversaries who, ironically, cause much more environmental harm by their production process than U.S. producers,” Oestmann wrote in one part of his testimony.Montalban used similar rhetorical flourishes: “By shutting down the small producers while oil demand is high, and will be for decades, will result in shipping jobs, revenue, and a key source of supply to many of our adversaries –who ironically, cause much more environmental harm by their production process than US producers.”Elsewhere, Oustmann wrote, “I understand the need for addressing environmental protection while achieving economic success in oil and gas production, but there is a right way and a wrong way to approach the issue.”Montalban said, “I would welcome the opportunity to work with this committee and anyone else who is interested in working to find a constructive way forward to balance environmental protection with economic success. … But there is a right way … and there is the wrong way: this administration’s approach.” The metadata for the PDF files of the testimony posted to the Energy and Commerce Committee website revealed Christopher Kearney, an oil and gas lobbyist with the Ferguson Group, was the “author” of both.Energy and Commerce Committee Democrats quickly seized on the connection.“Republicans have been parroting fossil fuel industry talking points for years, and the fact an oil and gas lobbyist wrote near-identical testimonies for two of their witnesses today is just the latest example of how embedded they are with their polluter friends,” a spokesperson for panel Democrats said in a statement to E&E News.“It’s no wonder so many Americans think Republicans are more interested in protecting corporate interests than theirs,” the statement said.
Shale Tycoon Harold Hamm Wants to Lure Gen Z to the Oil Industry --Shale tycoon Harold Hamm and U.S. and European supermajors are looking to support university courses in petroleum engineering and related disciplines in a bid to attract young talent to the industry that’s not viewed favorably by Millennials and Generation Z. Harold Hamm, the U.S. shale pioneer who founded Continental Resources, has donated to establish the Hamm Institute for American Energy at Oklahoma State University. At the end of 2021, the Harold Hamm Foundation and Continental Resources announced a combined $50 million gift to create the Hamm Institute for American Energy. “We believe in a world where every person has access to the reliable, affordable and sustainable energy they need to thrive,” says Hamm, who is chairman of the Hamm Institute for American Energy. Speaking to the Financial Times last week, Hamm said that “We are going to be using oil for the next 50 years and ‘clean burning’ natural gas probably for the next 100 or 150 years.”“We want to get the next generation of gamechangers involved,” Hamm told FT.A shortage of skilled workers drove last year inflationary pressures on energy projects in the U.S. and in Texas, along with higher interest rates and higher costs of materials. Some major LNG projects in the Gulf area in Texas could struggle to find enough skilled workers to execute the projects on time and on budget.“Labor availability is a big issue in blue-collar areas. It is hard to find employees, and wage rate requirements continue to increase,” one executive at an oil and gas support services firm said in comments in the Dallas Fed Energy Survey for the second quarter of 2023. Another executive, at an exploration and production (E&P) firm, commented,“Labor is hard to find. Dirty-fossil-fuels stigma drives younger talent away.”Some of those who are not driven away by the “dirty business” stigma are being poached by technology firms, data centers, Tesla, SpaceX, and other jobs in computing and engineering.
US oil output to touch a record high in 2024, but growth will slow - EIA (Reuters) - U.S. crude production will hit records over the next two years but grow at a slower rate, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said on Tuesday, as efficiency gains offset a decline in rig activity. The rise in U.S. output comes as the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies are cutting their own output in a bid to boost oil prices. U.S. crude production will rise by 290,000 barrels per day (bpd) to a record 13.21 million bpd this year, the EIA said in its Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO). The EIA forecast OPEC+ production, excluding Angola which left the bloc in January, would fall by 620,000 barrels per day to 36.44 million barrels per day next year. That was down from a five-year average of 40.2 million bpd before the Covid-19 pandemic. A Reuters survey on Friday found that oil output by the members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) rose in December as increases in Angola, Iraq and Nigeria offset continuing cuts by Saudi Arabia and others in the wider OPEC+ alliance. Worries of rising supply and weak demand for light crude also pushed Saudi Arabia to cut the February official selling price (OSP) of its flagship Arab Light crude to Asia to the lowest level in 27 months. While U.S production is set to climb to new records in 2024 and 2025 due to well efficiencies, the growth is set to slow from the 1 million bpd growth in 2023 due to lower drilling activity. Prices for global benchmark Brent crude is expected to average $82 per barrel in 2024 and $79 in 2025, close to the 2023 average of $82, EIA said. "Although we expect OPEC+ to restrict production to prevent prices from falling, we still anticipate global production to exceed consumption by mid-2025 and therefore for petroleum inventories to increase," the agency wrote in its report. EIA cautioned that heightened tensions in the Middle East and attacks on ships in the Red Sea could disrupt trade flows and push up prices. Oil prices climbed over 2% on Tuesday as the Middle East crisis and a Libyan supply outage pared the previous day's heavy losses. Brent crude futures were trading around $77.91 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures were trading at $72.72 a barrel. On the demand side, the agency expects growth in global liquid fuels consumption to be 1.4 million bpd in 2024 and 1.2 million in 2025, lower than the 1.9 million bpd growth in 2023 due to a weaker Chinese economy, increasing vehicle fleet efficiency, and an end to pandemic recovery-related growth in 2023.
US EIA forecasts lower oil prices in 2025, expects production to outpace demand | S&P Global Commodity Insights -- The US Energy Information Administration Jan. 9 lowered its 2024 crude price forecasts by 8 cents/b to $77.99/b for WTI and $82.49/b for Brent, and the agency expects prices to fall further in 2025 as production grows faster than demand.In its January Short-Term Energy Outlook, the EIA forecast WTI would average $74.98/b and Brent would average $79.48/b in 2025. With crude production outpacing demand, inventories are expected to build modestly in 2025 and place some downward pressure on crude oil prices, EIA said.But several uncertainties could still affect future oil prices, the EIA said. "Heightened tensions around the critical Red Sea shipping channel and other developments in the Middle East have added upward price pressure since early December and have the potential to disrupt global oil trade flows and drive up global oil prices further should they escalate or persist," the EIA said. The EIA pushed up its outlook for 2024 US oil production by 100,000 b/d to 13.21 million b/d and expects production growth to continue in 2025 with US output averaging 13.44 million b/d that year. US crude oil production set a record in 2023 and the current forecasts for 2024 and 2025 production would set records as well, according to the STEO."Production growth continues over the next two years driven by increases in well efficiency," according to the STEO. "However, growth slows because of fewer active drilling rigs," the EIA said.One key uncertainty in the EIA's US production forecast is producer investment, according to the STEO. "Since 2021, producers have prioritized debt reduction, dividend increases, and corporate acquisitions over capital expenditures," the EIA said. "Producers increased capital expenditures in 2023, however, and further increases would suggest more active rigs than in our forecast," the EIA said. Global liquid fuels production is also expected to slow down, as OPEC+ continues its policy of production restraint and US tight oil production growth decelerates, the EIA said. OPEC+ crude oil production is forecast to average 36.4 million b/d in 2024 and 37.2 million b/d in 2025, which is likely close to the lower bound for OPEC crude oil production, the EIA said in a STEO Between the Lines report released Jan. 9."Some OPEC+ participants may push to reduce or end their production restraint after the first quarter of 2024, in which case production may increase higher than our forecast and lead to lower prices," the EIA said in the report.The start-up of longer-term projects in Guyana, Brazil, Norway and Canada are less sensitive to crude oil prices than US shale production, and those projects will add to non-OPEC+ production growth in the next two years, the EIA said."In particular, the Liza and Payara projects in Guyana's offshore oil discoveries have significantly grown crude oil production, and we expect Guyana's production will increase from 0.4 million b/d in 2023 to 0.7 million b/d in 2025."Platts, a part of S&P Global Commodity Insights, on Jan. 8 assessed Unity Gold at a 95-cents/b discount to Dated Brent, Liza at a $1.15/b discount, and Payara Gold at a $1.10/b discount. All three grades were unchanged on the day.The EIA increased its world liquid fuels consumption forecast by 120,000 b/d to average 102.46 million b/d in 2024. The EIA expects global liquid fuels consumption to reach a new record of 103.67 million b/d in 2025, according to the STEO.Yet growth in 2024 and 2025 is still less than the 1.9 million b/d growth in 2023, the EIA said. "We attribute the reduction in growth to slowing oil demand growth in China due to stalling GDP growth, increasing vehicle fleet efficiency, and an end to pandemic recovery-related growth in 2023," according to the STEO.The EIA expects US retail gasoline prices to average $3.36/gal in 2024, holding steady with December's estimate, and the agency forecasts retail gasoline prices to average $3.24/gal in 2025.
ExxonMobil Posts $2.5B Impairment for California Assets - Exxon Mobil Corp. warned investors of a $2.5 billion write down of the value of some California operations. The impairment to be recorded in fourth-quarter earnings is “primarily” related to its Santa Ynez operations off the coast of Santa Barbara, Exxon said in a filing Thursday. The announcement comes days after Chevron Corp. said it will incur a large writedown due largely to California energy policies. Exxon temporarily suspended production at its Santa Ynez oil field after a 2015 pipeline leak before resuming crude shipments via trucks. Regulators later stepped in and restricted Exxon’s ability to move oil by road, citing risks to other drivers and the environment. “While the Corporation is progressing efforts to enable a restart of production, continuing challenges in the state regulatory environment have impeded progress in restoring operations,” Exxon said in the filing. Excluding the writedown, Exxon said fourth-quarter earnings were similar to the previous three-month period. Lower oil prices inflicted a $600 million hit on earnings but that was at least partially offset by a rise in natural gas markets. Meanwhile, a $1.6 billion drop in refining earnings was partly mitigated by a gain in unsettled derivatives of about $1.2 billion.
Canada’s Trans Mountain Pipeline expansion reportedly 95% complete - Work on Canada’s Trans Mountain Pipeline expansion project is reportedly over 95% complete. When it comes onstream, the expansion will nearly triple the pipeline’s current 300,000 barrels per day (b/d) capacity to move crude oil from oil sands in landlocked Alberta to Canada’s Pacific Coast for export to new customers in Asia or along the U.S. West Coast. Although initially expected to come online early this year, the project could be delayed as much as two years by a recent ruling, according to the project’s owner. The existing Trans Mountain Pipeline currently offers one avenue for waterborne crude oil exports out of Canada by moving crude oil from Edmonton in Alberta to Burnaby, a port near Vancouver on the coast of British Columbia. The expansion project aims to increase the pipeline’s current capacity by 590,000 b/d, bringing the pipeline to a capacity of 890,000 b/d. The Canadian government acquired the pipeline from Kinder Morgan for CA $4.5 billion in 2018 and formed the Trans Mountain Corporation (TMC) to oversee and manage the pipeline and the expansion project. The pipeline expansion, which consists of added pipeline capacity that generally runs along a similar route to the current pipeline, has faced several legal challenges from environmental activists and Canadian First Nations groups. Canada’s crude oil production increased steadily for most of the last 13 years. Canada’s average annual production of crude oil and condensate rose nearly 2.0 million b/d between 2009 to 2019. In 2020, the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic decreased crude oil production as crude oil prices declined significantly. Canada’s production has since resumed its growth trend. Canada’s production exceeded pre-pandemic levels in 2022 when crude oil and condensate production averaged 4.9 million b/d, according to data from the Canada Energy Regulator (CER). Most new growth in Canada’s crude oil production is concentrated in the landlocked province of Alberta. In 2022, Alberta’s crude oil production accounted for 82.7% of total crude oil production in Canada, up from 76.1% in 2012. Currently, more crude oil flows from Canda to the United States than to any other country by a wide margin; U.S. imports from Canada have averaged about 3.7 million b/d since 2020, according to our Petroleum Supply Monthly. U.S. crude oil imports from Canada accounted for about 79% of Canada’s total crude oil production during that time. Canada is also the largest source of crude oil imports to the United States, and these imports primarily flow to refineries in the Midwest and the U.S. Gulf Coast. CER’s refusal on December 5 to grant a variance request to Trans Mountain may delay the project start date. After the decision was issued, Trans Mountain indicated the delay could last as long as two years.
Ksi Lisims Nets First Offtaker as Shell Builds Western Canada LNG Footprint - The development team behind Ksi Lisims LNG in British Columbia (BC) has inked a long-term sales and purchase agreement (SPA) with Shell plc as the supermajor looks to grow its collection of western Canadian volumes for the Asian market. Ksi Lisims LNG Ltd., a co-venture between the Nisga’a Nation, Rockies LNG Ltd. and Houston-based Western LNG, has agreed to supply a Singapore-based unit of Shell with 2 million metric tons/year (mmty) of liquefied natural gas on a free-on-board basis for 20 years. It is the project’s first SPA. “The strong fundamentals of our project have earned the confidence of some of the most established companies in the LNG industry,” Western LNG CEO Davis Thames said. “We look forward to continuing to work with...
Shell expects 'significantly' higher LNG trading results in Q4 - LNG giant Shell is expecting “significantly” higher trading and optimization results for its integrated gas business in the fourth quarter of 2023 compared to the previous quarter. The UK-based firm revealed this in its fourth-quarter update note on Monday. According to Shell, trading and optimization results for integrated gas are expected to be “significantly higher than Q3’23 due to seasonality and increased optimization opportunities.” Shell’s adjusted earnings reached $6.22 billion in the third quarter, a drop of 34.2 percent compared to $9.45 billion in the year before, while the company’s integrated gas segment reported adjusted earnings of about $2.53 billion in the third quarter. This compares to $2.32 billion in the same period a year ago and $2.5 billion in the prior quarter. Shell sold 16.01 million tonnes of LNG in the July-September period, while its liquefaction volumes dropped to 6.88 million tonnes in the third quarter compared to 7.24 million tonnes in the same quarter last year. The firm said in the update it expects liquefaction volumes to reach about 6.9-7.3 million tonnes in the fourth quarter. Shell previously expected liquefaction volumes to reach about 6.7-7.3 million tonnes in the fourth quarter. In December, Shell’s huge Prelude FLNG located offshore Western Australia shipped its first LNG cargo since August last year when it started scheduled maintenance. Moreover, Shell expects integrated gas production to reach 880–920 kboe/d in the fourth quarter, while upstream production is expected to be at 1,830-1,930 kboe/d.
Pemex Aiming to Ramp Up Refining, Fertilizer Production in AMLO’s Final Year Mexico’s state oil company Petróleos Mexicanos (Pemex) plans to substantially increase downstream production of refined products and fertilizer this year, according to CEO Octavio Romero Oropeza. Romero did not offer projections for upstream oil and natural gas production during a presentation on Thursday (Jan. 4) at President Andrés Manuel López Obrador’s morning press conference. This year will mark the end of López Obrador’s six-year term. Romero highlighted the administration’s efforts to “rescue” Pemex from the policies of previous governments. He noted the stabilization of declining oil and gas production, and a ramp-up of crude oil processing at Pemex refineries under the current regime. Pemex expects to increase the amount of crude oil processed....
Mexican authorities find the bodies of 9 men near pipeline. Fuel theft by gangs is widespread (AP) — Authorities in central Mexico said Tuesday they found the bodies of nine men in vehicles near a fuel pipeline. The circumstances around the deaths remained under investigation, but there were indications that fuel theft may have been involved. Mexico faces a problem with gangs that steal gasoline, diesel and natural gas from government pipelines. Angel Rangel Nieves, police chief of San Juan del Rio city in the central state of Queretaro, said the bodies were found in two vehicles near the pipeline north of Mexico City. The vehicles had license plates from the neighboring state of Hidalgo, considered one of the centers of fuel theft. Since taking office in December 2018, President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador has made fighting fuel theft a central goal of his administration. But despite thousands of troops being deployed to guard pipelines, thousands of illegal taps are still found every year. In 2023, about 5,600 illegal taps were found nationwide. That was down from over 7,000 in 2022 but almost the same level as when Lopez Obrador took office. The government has cracked down on open sales of stolen fuel and managed to reduce the volume for a couple of years. Stolen fuels are often sold by the side of the road and sometimes through licensed gas stations. Losses from stolen fuel at the state-owned oil company, Petroleos Mexicanos, dropped to as little as $275 million per year in 2019 and 2020. But since then losses have ballooned, rising to over $1.1 billion in 2022. The pipeline taps cause violence between gangs and pose a risk to residents. To gain support among local people, thieves sometimes leave taps open. On Jan. 18, 2019, an explosion at an illegally tapped pipeline in Hidalgo state killed at least 134 people. The explosion occurred in the town of Tlahuelilpan as residents collected gasoline leaking from the tap.
Energos buys two FSRUs from Dynagas - US-based Energos Infrastructure, a joint venture majority-controlled by asset manager Apollo and minority shareholder New Fortress Energy, has purchased two 2021-built floating storage and regasification units from affiliates of Greece’s Dynagas.The 174,000-cbm closed-loop FSRUs, Transgas Force and Transgas Power, will be renamed Energos Force and Energos Power, according to a statement by Energos.Energos did not reveal the price tag of the deal.Earlier in 2023, both of the FSRUs started long-term charter contracts with the German Federal Ministry of Economic Affairs and Climate Change.Energos Force is planned to operate in the port of Stade under direction of state-owned LNG terminal operator Deutsche Energy Terminals (DET), while Energos Power is planned to operate in the port of Mukran and has been subchartered to private player Deutsche ReGas.DET is planning to commission its FSRU-based facility in Stade in the first quarter of 2024.In December, Transgas Force left Germany’s Bremerhaven and now works as an LNG carrier until mid-February when it is expected to be deployed in Stade, while Transgas Power started its charter with Deutsche ReGas in October.US LNG firm NFE and compatriot asset manager Apollo completed the formation of their joint venture Energos Infrastructure in August 2022.Prior to this move, the JV, 80 percent owned by Apollo, had 11 vessels in its fleet, seven FSRUs, two floating storage units, and two LNG carriers.
Dutch Gate breaks new record, working on further expansion --Dutch Gate LNG terminal in the port of Rotterdam handled a record number of vessels last year, and its owners Gasunie and Vopak are working to further expand the facility with an additional small-scale jetty and a new tank.Launched in September 2011, the terminal has a nameplate capacity of 12 Bcm or 8.8 mtpa of LNG, three LNG storage tanks with a capacity of 540,000 cbm, three truck loading bays, and three jetties, including one small-scale jetty.Following modifications, Gate managed to add 4 bcm of capacity on an interruptible basis, available to users already having a position in Gate.Gate’s current users include Shell, Uniper, OMV, and Glencore. Last year, BP and PetroChina booked capacity at Gate as part of the expansion project, while ConocoPhillipssecured capacity from September 2031.In August last year, Vopak and Gasunie took a final investment decision to build the fourth LNG tank with a capacity of 180,000 cbm and to add 4 Bcm of additional regasification capacity.Gate’s commercial manager, Stefaan Adriaens, told LNG Prime on Wednesday that the terminal regasified 14.35 Bcm in 2023, well above its nameplate capacity.This is flat compared to 2022 when the terminal regasified 14.39 Bcm.Gate’s sendout remained at record levels last year despite the launch of the FSRU-based LNG import hub in the Dutch port of Eemshaven, also owned by Gasunie and Vopak, and FSRU-based LNG terminals in Germany, France, and other European countries.Including unloading and loading operations, the LNG terminal handled record 328 vessels last year.Adriaens said that Gate unloaded a total of 169 LNG cargoes in 2023, compared to 183 shipments in 2022.Out of these, 110 shipments came from US terminals, compared to 96 shipments in the year before.Moreover, the facility loaded 159 cargoes, a jump from 84 cargoes in 2022, mainly because “competitive prices made LNG again interesting as maritime fuel,”
Spot LNG shipping rates continue to decline - Spot charter rates for the global liquefied natural gas (LNG) carrier fleet continued to decline this week, while European prices also decreased compared to the previous week. Last week, spot LNG freight rates continued their downward trend. LNG freight rates continued to decline despite delays at the Panama Canal, and constraints at the Suez Canal due to attacks in the Red Sea, prompting some owners to divert their LNG carriers towards the Cape of Good Hope. “LNG freight rates have fallen for the fifth consecutive week, with a 7 percent week-on-week decrease for Atlantic rates and a 16 percent w-o-w decrease for Pacific rates,” Qasim Afghan, Spark’s commercial analyst told LNG Prime on Friday. Afghan said that the Spark30S Atlantic decreased by $7,750 to $108,500 per day, whilst the Spark25S Pacific decreased by $15,250 to $80,250 per day. According to Afghan, Spark30S and Spark25S rates now assess rates for larger, more efficient 174,000-cbm 2 stroke vessels after a specification change to evolve in line with the evolution of the global fleet. In Europe, the SparkNWE DES LNG front month also dropped from the last week. The NWE DES LNG for February delivery was assessed last week at $9.925/MMBtu and at a $0.850/MMBtu discount to the TTF. “The SparkNWE DES LNG price for February delivery is assessed at $9.872/MMBtu and at a $0.855/MMBtu discount to the TTF,” Afghan said on Friday. He said this is a $0.185/MMBtu decrease in DES LNG price, and the discount to the TTF widened by $0.035/MMBtu, when compared to last week’s February prices. Levels of gas in storages in Europe remain high due to a mild winter. Currently, some parts of Europe such as the Nordic countries are experiencing a cold snap. Data by Gas Infrastructure Europe (GIE) shows that gas storages in the EU were 85.86 percent full on January 3. In Asia, South Korea and Japan’s demand for spot LNG cargoes remained tepid in December as comfortable inventories weighed on buying interest, according to Platts, part of S&P Global Commodity Insights. Despite stable consumption of LNG in China, buying interest emerged in the week ended December 22 as China’s second-tier companies came out of the sidelines to purchase spot cargo as the Platts JKM, the benchmark price for LNG delivered to Northeast Asia, became more competitive than the domestic gas prices in China, it said. JKM ranged between $11-$15/MMBtu price levels in December, compared to the higher price range recorded in November at $15-$17/MMBtu. This week, JKM dropped when compared to the last week. JKM for February settled at $11.555/MMBtu on Thursday.
LNG carrier orders dip from record 2022 - Orders for liquefied natural gas (LNG) carriers in South Korea and China dropped significantly in 2023 from the record number of orders logged in the year before. According to data compiled by LNG Prime from South Korean and Chinese yards and shipbuilding sources, there were at least 68 orders for large LNG carriers in 2023. This compares to more than 170 orders recorded in 2022. The large number of orders in 2022 resulted in limited availability of slots at Korean and Chinese yards. Last month, Philippe Berterottière, the chief executive of LNG tank giant GTT said that the firm had won orders for about 65 LNG carriers in 2023. The Paris-based firm received record 162 orders for LNG carriers in 2022, up by 138 percent compared to the 68 orders in 2021. This means that 2023 orders were in line with 2021. Berterottière also said that GTT expects a similar number of orders in 2024 and more than 450 orders for large LNG carriers over the next ten years due to a strong LNG demand outlook and more stringent environmental regulations. China’s Hudong-Zhonghua and other compatriot yards won a record number of orders for LNG carriers in 2022, boosted by international orders and the giant QatarEnergy shipbuilding program. China State Shipbuilding Corporation and its units secured 49 orders in 2022. Including other yards, LNG carrier orders in 2022 reached 55 vessels. LNG Prime estimates that Chinese yards won in total 17 LNG carrier orders in 2023, more than three times less compared to the year before. CSSC’s Hudong-Zhongua secured only one order in July last year to build two LNG carriers for Cosco Shipping Energy Transportation and PetroChina, while Jiangnan also secured one order in March to build two LNG carriers for Shandong Marine and Taiping & Sinopec Financial Leasing. Dalian Shipbuilding Industry (DSIC), also part of CSSC, won in total seven LNG carrier orders last year. These include an order for three LNG carriers from Cosco Shipping and Sinopec, an order for two LNG carriers for a joint venture consisting of China Gas, Wah Kwong Maritime Transport, and CSSC Shipping, and an order for two more LNG carriers with China Merchants Energy Shipping (CMES). Last year, Denmark’s Celsius Tankers, a unit of Celsius Shipping, also ordered in total six 180,000-cbm LNG carriers from China Merchants Heavy Industry in Jiangsu. In South Korea, Hanwha Ocean, previously known as DSME, HD Korea Shipbuilding & Offshore Engineering and its units, and Samsung Heavy won orders for 51 LNG carriers, according to our calculations. This compares to 119 LNG orders in 2022. Samsung Heavy received in total seven LNG carrier orders, compared to record 36 LNG carrier orders in 2022. Last year, Japan’s MOL ordered five LNG carriers at Samsung Heavy and US-based Chevron ordered two vessels. Hanwha Ocean secured orders for five LNG carriers in 2023, compared to record 38 LNG carriers in 2022. MOL ordered three LNG carriers at Hanwha Ocean and Greece’s Maran Gas ordered two vessels last year. KSOE and its units won orders for 39 LNG carriers in 2023. This compares to 45 LNG carrier orders in 2022. HD Hyundai Heavy secured 30 LNG carrier orders and Hyundai Samho won 9 orders last year. The orders include 17 carriers as part of the QatarEnergy shipbuilding program, as well as vessels for Greece’s Evalend Shipping, Japan’s NYK, Greece’s Capital Gas, and Greece’s Dynagas. Besides the deal at Hyundai Heavy, QatarEnergy was expected to award more contracts as part of its shipbuilding program by the end of last year, including for Q-Max type vessels. Under the first phase, QatarEnergy contracted 60 LNG carriers at South Korea’s three shipbuilders, and Hudong-Zhonghua. Including the 17 carriers under the second phase, QatarEnergy and its affiliates awarded contracts for 77 vessels, but the firm needs more than 100 carriers for its giant expansion projects in Ras Laffan and the Golden Pass plant.
Poland Resists Cooperation With Nord Stream Sabotage Investigation - Poland has resisted efforts to investigate the 2022 bombings of the Nord Stream natural gas pipelines that connect Russia and Germany, raising suspicion that the Polish government could have had knowledge of the attack, The Wall Street Journal reported.The leading theory among Western officials is that Ukraine was behind the blast and that it was carried out by a small group of Ukrainians who rented a yacht, the Andromeda. Most ignore the theory that the US was behind the blast, an allegation that was made in a report by investigative journalist Seymour Hersh.The Andromeda made several stops in the Baltic Sea around the time of the explosions, including in Poland. European investigators told the Journalthat Polish officials had been slow to provide information and withheld key evidence about the alleged saboteurs’ movements in Poland.Investigators are hoping the new pro-EU Polish government of Prime Minister Donald Tusk will be more cooperative. Poland’s new foreign minister, Radek Sikorski, previously suggested the US was responsible for the Nord Stream bombings.After the news of the pipeline bombings broke in September 2022, Sikorski, who was a member of the European Parliament at the time, tweeted a picture of the disturbance in the water caused by the gas leak and wrote, “Thank You, USA.” He later deleted the tweet. QatarEnergy, Hudong-Zhonghua seal deal for giant LNG carriers - State-owned LNG giant QatarEnergy has signed a shipbuilding deal with China’s Hudong-Zhonghua for the construction of eight Q-Max LNG carriers as part of its shipbuilding program, according to shipbuilding sources.The giant vessels will have a capacity of 271,000 cubic meters and are scheduled to be delivered in 2028 and 2029, shipbuilding sources told LNG Prime on Tuesday.LNG Prime reported in September last year that QatarEnergy was looking to order Q-Max LNG carriers in China and South Korea. The price tag of the new deal has not been revealed.Regular LNG carriers in China are now priced at more than $235 million, and in South Korea at about $265 million.However, the vessels previously ordered as part of the shipbuilding program in China and South Korea were booked below market prices.These Q-Max vessels could be each worth more than $300 million.QatarEnergy will now sign time charter parties with shipowners for these LNG carriers, the same as the firm did for the previous vessels which were ordered as part of the first phase of the shipbuilding program, the sources said. Back in 2020, QatarEnergy entered into an agreement with Hudong-Zhonghua to reserve LNG ship construction capacity in China for its future LNG carrier fleet requirements, including for the North Field expansion projects.In April 2022, QatarEnergy signed charter deals for four Hudong-Zhonghua LNG carriers with Japan’s MOL, completing the first batch of charter contracts awarded under its massive shipbuilding program.After that, QatarEnergy signed charter deals with MOL for three new carriers, and five LNG carriers with a consortium of Japan’s NYK, K Line, Malaysia’s MISC, and China LNG Shipping.Including these eight Q-Max carriers, Hudong-Zhonghua will build in total 20 LNG carriers as part of the shipbuilding program.In September last year, Hudong-Zhonghua received approvals in principle from classification societies for what it said is the world’s largest LNG carrier.According to Hudong-Zhonghua, the 271,000-cbm LNG carrier is 344 meters long, 53.6 meters wide, and has a design draft of 12 meters.It features dual-fuel propulsion, a reliquefaction system, an air lubrication system, and GTT’s NO96 Super+ containment tech. The vessel has five storage tanks.
Germany Discovers New Pipeline to Replace Russian Gas Sabotaged - The German Federal Prosecutor’s Office is investigating “suspicions of unconstitutional sabotage” after holes were discovered drilled into a new gas delivery pipe installed to overcome the country’s dependence on imported Russian hydrocarbons. Germany believes a number of one-centimetre (approximately half, or 13/32ths of an inch) holes have been “drilled” into a new gas delivery pipeline delivering the energy source to Germany’s national grid, an act of what is believed to be sabotage discovered in November but made public now. The exact cause of the damage or motivation behind an attempt to sabotage Germany’s energy imports is not known, but the Schleswig-Holsteinische Zeitungsverlag reports Dutch-German energy company Gasunie has now confirmed the damage took place, and that they believe it was caused by “third-party intervention”.The 35-mile pipe is intended to deliver gas brought to Germany aboard LNG carriers, which is cooled to a liquid state for safe transit at sea and re-gassified once it reaches the shore of the customer nation and then piped ashore. In this case, a floating LNG terminal receives and regasified the LNG at Brunsbüttel on the river Elbe and sends it ashore, and it was this pipe carrying the gas towards the national grid which was allegedly drilled several times.The investigation has been taken over by the Federal Prosecutor’s Office, underlining the seriousness with which the potential case of “unconstitutional sabotage” is being treated. The terminal was handed over to Deutsche Energy Terminal GmbH (DET) at the start of this year.It is possible the sabotage could be related to the Ukraine-Russia war that necessitated the construction of the new LNG terminals in the first place, and The Times also notesthey have been the subject of “heavy” protests by green activists too.Germany rushed to diversify its energy sources as, despite repeated warnings fromformer U.S. President Donald Trump that it made them vulnerable, they relied very heavily on Russian energy imports to underwrite the national economy. Many European nations import LNG, but upon the outbreak of the Ukraine War Germany didn’t have a single LNG import terminal of its own, and the Brunsbüttel regasification plant is one of several ordered to be built at speed to overcome that.
India's ONGC Produces First Oil in Bay of Bengal Block - India’s Oil and Natural Gas Corp (ONGC) has successfully produced the first oil from the deepwater KG-DWN-98/2 Block, located off the coast of the Bay of Bengal. The 98/2 project is expected to boost ONGC’s total oil production by 11 percent and gas production by 15 percent, the state-run company said in a news release Monday. ONGC said it is nearing completion of the project’s second phase, after completing the first phase in March 2020. The company noted that field development faced technical challenges “due to the waxy nature of the crude”, which it overcame by employing pipe-in-pipe technology. Majority of the fabrication was done domestically, with some subsea hardware sourced internationally to meet specific requirements, the company added. The ONGC flagship project is on track, with the rest of the fields set to produce in mid-2024 in the final phase. The peak production of the field is expected to be 45,000 barrels of oil per day and over 353.15 million standard cubic feet (10 million standard cubic meters) per day of gas, the company said. On the international front, the government of India approved the signing of a memorandum of understanding (MoU) with the government of Guyana regarding cooperation in the hydrocarbon sector. The proposed MoU covers the complete value chain of the hydrocarbon sector, including the sourcing of crude oil from Guyana, the participation of Indian companies in the exploration and production sector of Guyana, cooperation in the areas of crude oil refining, collaboration in the natural gas sector, and collaboration in clean energy, according to an official announcement from India’s Press Information Bureau (PIB). The MoU aims to strengthen bilateral trade and foster investment between the two nations. Upon the signing of the MoU, it will be valid for five years, automatically renewing for the same period unless terminated by either party. India is targeting new partnerships in the hydrocarbon sector as research from the International Energy Agency (IEA) estimates that the country’s energy demand will grow around 3 percent per year, compared to the global rate of 1 percent. India is also projected to account for approximately 25 to 28 percent of global energy demand growth between 2020-2040. Meanwhile, Guyana has seen new discoveries of 11.2 billion barrels of oil equivalent recently and is projected to have a significant increase in production, according to the announcement.
China’s oil production rises to 208 mln tons in 2023 – CCTV - China’s crude oil production rose to 208 million metric tons in 2023, equivalent to 4.16 million barrels per day, state broadcaster CCTV said on Tuesday. The figure, which according to Reuters’ calculations is a 1.6% increase on 2022 output levels, represents an anticipated slowdown in production growth, as China’s national oil companies are pushed to tap deeper, more challenging reserves to boost production. China’s domestic oil production averaged 2% annual growth between 2018 and 2022, Reuters records show, as Beijing has sought to step up output amid an energy security drive. Oil production in China fell by around 12% between 2015 and 2018, as output at mature onshore fields slipped. Offshore production has accounted for more than 60% of the country’s production increases for the last four years, the CCTV report said. Domestic natural gas production reached 230 billion cubic metres in 2023, the CCTV report said, representing a 5.6% increase over 2022 levels.
Shell Oil Spill: Nigeria's top court says Shell's appeal should be heard after oil spill claim - Nigeria's Supreme Court on Friday ruled that Shell should be granted a hearing over an alleged oil spill in the Niger Delta after the Court of Appeal halted an asset sale and ordered a judgement claim to be paid prior to hearing its case. The case, one of several against Shell Plc locally and abroad, started with a High Court ruling in November 2020 that ordered Shell to pay 800 billion naira (USD 878 million) to communities of Egbalor Ebubu in Rivers state, who accused the firm of an oil spill that damaged waterways and farms. Shell denies causing the spill. Shell had appealed to stop the High Court from executing its judgement but the Court of Appeal ordered Shell to deposit the money in an account controlled by the court, before its appeal could proceed. Shell was also ordered to pause the disposal of local assets last June until the Supreme Court ruling, to allow for any compensation due to the Niger Delta Community. Mohammed Ndarani, the community's lawyer, told Reuters that the Supreme Court had now returned the case to the Court of Appeal. The Supreme Court ruled on Friday that the appeal court did not look into the merits of the case and directed that Shell be granted a hearing. The case is being closely watched after the country's oil regulator refused to approve Exxon Mobil's USD 1.28 billion asset sale to Seplat Energy in 2022, raising concerns among international oil companies about the difficulty of selling assets in Nigeria. Shell, like other oil majors operating in the country, is focusing on deep water drilling and divesting from onshore operations, which are prone to crude theft and vandalism of pipelines, hitting Nigeria's oil production.
Trouble as Port Harcourt Refinery Pipeline Damages, Spills Oil During Test run - An oil pipeline carrying crude oil to the Port Harcourt refinery has burst, causing a significant oil spill and severe environmental damage. To lessen the damage caused by the pipeline breach on Wednesday, January 3, a cement roadblock was put up to enable the continuing flow of crude oil needed for the refinery's test run. The affected community came up with the interim fix since they wouldn't let the facility's management business, Pipelines and Products Marketing Business Limited (PPMC), fix the damaged region permanently after it happened. Instead, they insisted on conducting a cooperative study before authorizing long-term repairs, Independent.ng reported. Following the tragic incident, the Youths and Environmental Advocacy Centre (YEAC-Nigeria) has urged the National Oil Spill Detection and Response Agency (NOSDRA) to conduct a thorough joint investigation into the spill to ascertain the reason for the pipeline burst. During a press briefing in Port Harcourt, Fyneface Dumnamene Fyneface, the Executive Director of YEAC-Nigeria, urged NOSDRA to clean up the affected area and repay the community in the case that it is confirmed that equipment failure caused the damage. He stated: “Efforts by the PPMC to fix the spill point are currently stalled by the community until JIV is carried out, but the company has temporarily stopped the spill with a cement barricade to enable it to continue the transportation of crude needed for the test run of the Port Harcourt refinery, pending when requirements are met and expected permanent repairs are expected on the spill point.” Earlier Legit.ng reported that the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPCL) had begun the supply of crude oil for the test-running of the Port Harcourt Refinery Company Limited. Oil marketers confirmed the development and said the plant would supply petrol, diesel, and other products in 12 states, including Abia, Akwa Ibom, and Delta States.
Libya NOC Declares Force Majeure for Sharara Oil Field - Libya’s National Oil Corp. (NOC) has declared a force majeure for Sharara amid a blockade of the oil field by protesters, according to the state-owned company. “The closure has resulted in the suspension of crude oil supplies from the field to Zawiya terminal” effective January 7, the NOC said in a press release Sunday. The force majeure status pauses the facility’s contractual obligations. A report by Reuters January 3 said the protest was to demand development projects and jobs. The region was "in need of developing projects and services, such as a refinery for fuel supply, paved roads, a clinic and providing jobs for young people", one protester told the news agency. “Negotiations are ongoing to resume production as soon as possible”, said the NOC statement posted on its website. The closure of the field, one of the North African country’s biggest according to the consortium that runs Sharara, comes as Libya works to entice back international hydrocarbon developers whose operations have been hit by force majeures. Located in the Murzuq basin south of the North African country, Sharara can produce up to 330,000 barrels per day (bpd), according to news information from the NOC website. The Akakus Oil Operations company operates the field as a consortium between the NOC, Austria’s state-backed OMV Ag, France’s TotalEnergies SE and Norway’s majority state-owned Equinor ASA. Two blocks have been developed in the field, NC115 and NC186. Crude from these two concessions is transported via a 723-kilometer (449.25 miles) long pipeline across the Sahara Desert to the Akakus Oil Operations Tank Farm on Libya’s northern coast, where the oil is dispatched for shipping to the international market, Akakus says on its website. Oil and gas operations in Libya have been hit by blockades in the aftermath of the civil war that broke out 2011. World Bank estimated the Libyan economy had shrunk by 1.2 percent in 2022 due to a blockade of oil production during the first semester alone. An analysis by the United States Energy Information Administration (EIA) published May 9, 2022, said due to political instability since the start of the civil war, Libya’s petroleum production has fallen from 1.7 million bpd between 2006 and 2010 to a maximum capacity of 1.3 million bpd. The report on the EIA website cited repeated oil blockades, among other factors. The NOC is now aiming to raise oil output to two million bpd, it said in a March 30, 2023, media statement announcing the approval of its plan for 2023–27.
Iran withholds oil shipments to China, demanding higher prices -Oil trade between China and Iran has hit a roadblock as Tehran ceased shipments, seeking higher prices from its primary customer, reported Reuters, citing sources. Iranian oil, accounting for approximately 10% of China’s crude imports, saw a peak in transactions in October 2023. However, the recent halt in shipments from Iran could bolster global oil prices and strain the profitability of Chinese refiners. The situation, described by an industry executive as a “default,” may also be an unintended consequence of the US granting a sanctions waiver for Venezuelan oil in October. The waiver is said to have redirected Venezuelan shipments to the US and India, thereby inflating costs for China as Beijing’s supply consequently diminished. Iran’s National Oil Company, China’s commerce ministry and the US Treasury Department did not respond to Reuters‘ requests for comments.
Iran’s Dark Fleet: The High Cost of Clandestine Oil Exports - More than 6,000 kilometers from Tehran, in treacherous waters off the shores of Singapore, a "dark fleet" of oil tankers waits to offload the precious cargo that helps keep Iran's economy afloat -- a dependency that could also sink it.The fleet has grown steadily over the past five years, delivering Iranian crude to China as the countries work in concert to circumvent international sanctions that target Tehran's lucrative oil exports. But while the clandestine trade has buoyed Iran's budget, it also comes at tremendous cost and risk to Tehran.Iran gives China a hefty discount to take its banned oil, taking 12 to 15 percent off the price of each barrel to make it worthwhile for Beijing to take on the liability of skirting sanctions, according to research by the data analysis unit of RFE/RL's Radio Farda.Additional costs add up as well: ship-to-ship operations to offload the oil, middlemen, hidden-money transfers, and rebranding the oil to mask its Iranian origin and make it appear to come from a third country, said Dalga Khatinoglu, an expert on Iranian energy issues.Altogether, said Khatinoglu, who contributes to Radio Farda's data analysis unit, Iran's budget figures and official statements indicate that 30 percent of the country's potential oil revenue was wasted last year.And with the draft budget for the next fiscal year currently being debated by the Iranian parliament, there are no guarantees that Tehran's bet on quenching China's thirst for oil will continue to be a panacea.With Iran almost entirely dependent on Beijing to take its oil and on other entities to facilitate the trade, Tehran has managed to inject desperately needed revenue into its economy. But Iran has also put itself at risk of seeing its main revenue stream dry up."There's definitely an extent to which Tehran has become more dependent on the likes of China or those who would be willing to deal with Iran in spite of Western sanctions," said Spencer Vuksic, a director of the consultancy firm Castellum, which closely tracks international sanctions regimes.Vuksic said Iran is "definitely put in a weak position by having to depend on a single external partner who's willing to deal with and engage with Tehran."Iran has trumpeted its foreign trade, claiming in December that oil revenue had contributed to a positive trade balance for the first eight months of the year.But the oil and gas sector, by far the largest part of the Iranian economy, will not be enough to save the current budget of around $45 billion that was approved last year.The Iranian fiscal year, which follows the Persian calendar and will end in March, is expected to result in a major deficit. In presenting the draft budget to parliament in December, President Ebrahim Raisi acknowledged a $10 billion deficit. But the shortfall could be much higher -- up to $13.5 billion, the largest in Iran's history -- by the end of the fiscal year, according to Radio Farda. This is because data shows that just half of the expected oil revenues were realized, in part due to lower than expected oil prices and additional costs and discounts related to Tehran's oil trade with China. Whereas the budget expectations were based on oil being sold at $85 per barrel, the price of crude dipped below $75 per barrel in December and has fluctuated wildly recently amid concerns that tensions in the Middle East could disrupt shipping and production. And while Iran expected to export 1.5 million barrels of oil per day (bpd), it exported only 1.2 million bpd in the first eight months of the year, according to Radio Farda.Altogether, Radio Farda estimates that Iran lost some $15 million per day in potential revenue through its trade with China, which accounts for more than 40 percent of the Iranian budget.For the upcoming budget of about $49 billion, expectations for domestic and foreign oil revenue have dipped by 3 percent, according to Khatinoglu, even as the projected budget itself has risen by about 18 percent.
Oil Plunges After Saudi Arabia Cuts Oil Prices For February Amid "Persistent Weakness" Oil is plunging this morning, sending WTI on the verge of sliding below $70... ... after Saudi Arabia reduced the price of its crude oil for February delivery for all buyers amid what Bloomberg dubbed "persistent weakness", rather than just Asian ones as it has done before. State producer Saudi Aramco reduced its flagship Arab Light price to Asia by $2 to $1.50 a barrel above the benchmark. That’s bigger than a $1.25 a barrel reduction estimated in a Bloomberg survey of refiners and traders. Interestingly, Aramco also cut the price for North American buyers by the same amount, while in previous price adjustments it has cut these prices more modestly according to OilPrice. For European buyers, Aramco cut February prices by between $1.50 and $2 per barrel. "Saudi crude is still relatively more expensive compared to other regional crude. But we are happy enough to see such prices, making it much more affordable for us," a source from a refinery in North Asia told Reuters in comments on the news. The news outlet noted that the price cut is the deepest in 13 months and suggests a softer Asian market for crude. A month ago, a survey by Bloomberg among refiners suggested Aramco will cut prices amid intensified competition for the Asian market and cheaper crude from the United States and Europe, as well as Guyana. Oil from the US had become especially attractive as an alternative to Middle Eastern crudes as Brent crude came near parity with the Dubai benchmarks against with these crudes are prices. The cause of that unusual development was OPEC production cuts. Meanwhile, just two months ago, Aramco raised the prices of its crude for most of its buyers. For Asian buyers, this was the fifth price increase for the flagship Arab Light in a row as Saudi Arabia curbed output to stimulate higher prices. OPEC agreed at the end of last year to reduce production of oil this quarter by 2.2 million barrels daily. So far, this has not prompted any worry about short supply, keeping prices relatively stable. Many traders seem to believe that even a cut of 2.2 million bpd—if all comply—would be enough to offset greater supply from non-OPEC producers.
The Oil Market Sold Off Sharply on Monday on Price Cuts By Saudi Arabia --The oil market sold off sharply on Monday on price cuts by Saudi Arabia, the latest sign that fundamentals are worsening. It offset supply concerns generated by escalating geopolitical tension in the Middle East. The crude market was pressured after Saudi Aramco on Sunday lowered the price of its Arab Light crude bound for Asia by $2/barrel due to persistent weakness in the global market. Saudi Arabia signaled it aims to remain competitive in the market and is unwilling to unilaterally reduce its volume. The crude market posted a high of $73.25 in overnight trading. However, the market sold off more than $3.60 as it fell to a low of $70.13 in morning trading. The market retraced some of its losses and traded sideways during the remainder of the session. The market’s losses may have been limited by a force majeure declared by Libya’s National Oil Corp at its 300,000 bpd Sharara oilfield on Sunday after protests shut the oilfield. The February WTI contract settled down 3.04 cents at $70.77 and the March Brent contract settled down $2.64 cents at $76.12. The products markets ended the session in negative territory, with the heating oil market settling down 3.16 cents at $2.5769 and the RB market settling down 7.77 cents at $2.0278. Citigroup Inc estimates that fund tracking the Bloomberg Commodity Index and the S&P GSCI are likely to sell about $2 billion worth of WTI in the coming days as the annual realignment of portfolios take place. Hapag-Lloyd and Maersk said that they have not entered any agreements with Iranian-backed Houthi militants to prevent their ships from being attacked in the Red Sea, denying a report by industry portal Shippingwatch saying that some shippers had started to make such deals. U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken discussed efforts to prevent the Gaza conflict from spreading during a meeting with High Representative Josep Borrell in Saudi Arabia on Monday. He began a five-day Middle East diplomatic effort in Jordan and Qatar on Sunday, his fourth visit to the region since the October 7th attacks on Israel by Hamas militants. He said he found leaders in the Middle East determined to prevent the conflict between Israel and Hamas in Gaza from spreading. He said Houthi attacks on international shipping in the Red Sea have to stop, adding countries have made clear that there have to be consequences if the attacks continue. Meanwhile, U.S. President Joe Biden said he had been working quietly with the Israeli government to encourage it to reduce its attacks and “significantly get out of Gaza.” On Sunday, Libya’s National Oil Corporation declared a force majeure at its 300,000 bpd Sharara oilfield after protesters shut the field, forcing supplies to be halted from the field to the Zawiya export terminal. IIR Energy reported that U.S. oil refiners are expected to shut in 409,000 bpd of capacity in the week ending January 12th, cutting available refining capacity by 215,000 bpd. Offline capacity is expected to increase to 951,000 bpd in the week ending January 19th.
Oil falls more than 4% as Saudi price cut heightens global demand worries - U.S. crude oil declined 4% on Monday after Saudi Arabia slashed its prices, raising renewed worries that the market is oversupplied at the same time as demand is weakening. The West Texas Intermediate futures contract for February lost $3.04, or 4.12%, to settle at $70.77 a barrel. The Brent futures contract for March shed $2.64, or 3.35%, to settle at $76.12 a barrel. The sell-off comes after Saudi Aramco on Sunday sharply lowered the price of Arab Light Crude to Asian customers by $2 per barrel. The Saudi price cut comes amid persistent market weakness due in large part to record U.S. crude production and softening demand in China. OPEC and its allies are cutting their production by 2.2 million barrels per day this quarter in an effort to balance the market. “While it is possible that the price reduction was to maintain market share in the face of production cuts, the market is taking it as a clear sign that the economy is slowing. Maybe the landing might not be so soft,” Phil Flynn of The Price Futures Group wrote on Monday. U.S. crude and Brent, the global benchmark, both ended the first week of 2024 more than 2% higher on mounting tensions in the Middle East, but supply and demand concerns have persistently overshadowed geopolitical risks in the market. “The market seems to feel that geopolitical risk will not impact supply and if it does, demand is weak so it will not matter,” Flynn wrote. Repeated attacks by Houthi militants, who are allied with Iran, on commercial vessels in the Red Sea have forced shipping giant Maersk to avoid the crucial waterway for the foreseeable future. The situation is also deteriorating in Lebanon, where a Hezbollah commander was killed Monday in an apparent Israeli airstrike. Analysts say a regional war that draws in Iran could lead to a disruption in the Strait of Hormuz which would have a material impact on the market. So far, however, rising tensions in the region have not led to a problem in crude supplies. U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken is on a diplomatic tour of the region in an effort to reduce tensions. Though geopolitical risk is rising, the global oil market remains well supplied. The U.S. pumped an estimated 13.2 million barrels per day of crude in the last week of 2023, and its inventories of gasoline and distillate both soared by more than 10 million barrels. U.S. crude exports also rose by more than 1 million barrels per day to 5.2 million barrels per day in the same period. Saudi Arabia is slashing prices to stop customers from buying U.S. crude as well as to undercut cheap Iranian and Russian barrels, said Bob Yawger, energy futures strategist at Mizuho. “Obviously they’re hitting the panic button a little,” Yawger said of Riyadh. The question is what happens if the Saudi strategy does not work, he said. “You’re getting closer and closer to a 2020 situation here where they try to claw back market share by cutting everything to bare bones minimum and sparking a price war,” Yawger said.
Oil climbs 2% on Mideast conflict and Libya outage (Reuters) - Oil prices climbed around 2% on Tuesday as the Middle East crisis and a Libyan supply outage pared the previous day's heavy losses. Brent crude futures settled $1.47, or 1.9%, higher at $77.59 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI) ended $1.47, or 2.1%, higher at $72.24. Prices drew support from the closure of Libya's 300,000 barrels per day (bpd) Sharara oilfield, one of its largest, which has been a frequent target for local and broader political protests, and Middle East tensions. The Israeli military has said its fight against Hamas will continue through 2024, stoking concerns the conflict could escalate into a regional crisis that disrupts oil supplies. Meanwhile, some major shipping companies are still avoiding the Red Sea following attacks by Iran-aligned Houthi militants in response to Israel's war against Hamas. However, the impact on oil tanker movements has been less than expected, according to a Reuters analysis. "The more attractive alternative for (oil tankers) right now is to make a dash for the United States, where crude oil is cheaper than Brent," Brent and WTI posted 3% and 4% losses respectively on Monday after sharp cuts to Saudi Arabia's official selling prices (OSP), prompting both supply and demand concerns. Oil futures also were also supported on Tuesday after Saudi Arabia emphasized its desire to support efforts to stabilize oil markets and following reports that Russia curbed its crude oil production level in December, Russia is part of the OPEC+ group of oil producers that has agreed to cut production by around 2.2 million bpd. In the U.S., crude production will hit record highs over the next two years but grow at a slower rate, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) said, as efficiency gains offset a decline in rig activity. Output will rise by 290,000 bpd to a record 13.21 million bpd this year. Crude stocks fell by 5.2 million barrels in the week ended Jan. 5, according to market sources citing American Petroleum Institute figures on Tuesday. Government data on stockpiles is due Wednesday.
Oil Rebounds After EIA Forecast Global Stock Draws in Q1 (DTN) -- Recouping a portion of Monday's losses, oil futures nearest delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange and Brent crude traded on the Intercontinental Exchange booked solid gains in afternoon trading Tuesday after the U.S. Energy Information Administration forecast global oil inventories will draw down rapidly during the first quarter, putting upward pressure on oil prices, before the physical market rebalances in the second half of the year. Worldwide oil inventories will decline by 800,000 bpd during the first three months of 2024, pressured by steep production cuts from OPEC+ and slowing supply growth from non-OPEC countries. EIA estimates global oil production will slow sharply this year to just 600,000 bpd from a neck-breaking pace of 1.7 million bpd seen over the course of 2023. Most of that growth in oil production will continue to be realized in the United States, Brazil, and Guyana. For OPEC+ countries, total oil production will fall 600,0000 bpd this year before ongoing production cuts of 2.2 million bpd first introduced in June 2023 will expire at the year. The most recent industry data suggests that key OPEC+ oil producers are indeed adhering to their pledged supply targets, with Russia's seaborne oil shipments during the first week of January dropping 500,000 bpd below their May–June baseline. On Nov. 30 during OPEC+'s final meeting of 2023, Russia pledged to deepen export cuts by 500,000 bpd after Saudi Arabia said it would extend a unilateral 1 million bpd production cut into the first three months of 2024. In addition to Russia and Saudi Arabia, several other OPEC+ members announced deeper production cuts of 2.2 million bpd. The oil complex came under intense selling pressure at the start of the week after Saudi Aramco, the world's largest oil company, slashed February official selling prices for its oil to all key markets by the most since November 2021. The Saudi's price-setting mechanisms correspond directly to the appetite for crude oil in the global economy. The fact that Aramco cut OSPs to all markets by a sizable $2 bbl in a single month underscores weak demand fundamentals at the start of 2024. At settlement, February West Texas Intermediate futures on NYMEX advanced $1.47 to $72.24 bbl, and the international crude benchmark Brent contract for March delivery also gained $1.47 bbl to $77.59 bbl. NYMEX February ULSD futures added $0.0735 to $2.6504 gallon, while NYMEX February RBOB futures gained $0.0490 to $2.0768 gallon.
Yemen's Houthis Launched Their Largest Missile and Drone Attack to Date on Ships in the Red Sea -- The oil market on Wednesday continued to trade within Monday’s trading range as it erased its earlier gains and sold off following an unexpected build in crude stocks. The crude market erased some of Tuesday’s gains in overnight trading before it bounced higher ahead of the release of the EIA’s weekly petroleum stocks report. The market was well supported by concerns over the escalating tensions in the Middle East. Yemen’s Houthis launched their largest missile and drone attack to date on ships in the Red Sea, forcing a response from U.S. and U.K. forces patrolling the waterway. The oil market extended its gains by $1.35 as it rallied to a high of $73.59. However, the market erased its earlier gains and sold off to a low of $71.01 in afternoon trading after the EIA highlighted concerns of slowing demand growth as it showed an unexpected build in crude stocks and larger than expected builds in both distillates and gasoline stocks. The market later settled in a sideways trading range ahead of the close. The February WTI contract settled down 87 cents at $71.37, while the March Brent contract settled down 79 cents at $76.80. The product markets ended the session lower, with the heating oil market settling down 4.98 cents at $2.6006 and the RB market settling down 95 points at $2.0673. The EIA reported U.S. gasoline stocks increased last week to the highest level since February 2022. Gasoline stocks increased by 8.028 million barrels to nearly 245 million barrels in the week ending January 5th. Inventories of the motor fuel in the Midwest increased to 56.5 million barrels, the highest since April 2022, while Gulf Coast gasoline stocks increased to 90.2 million barrels, the highest level since June 2021. U.S. distillate stocks increased by 6.5 million barrels to 132.4 million barrels, the highest level since September 2021. U.S. Midwest distillate stocks increased 1.9 million barrels to 34.1 million barrels, the highest level since September 2020 and U.S. Gulf Coast distillate stocks increased by 1.9 million barrels to 46.5 million barrels, the highest level since August 2021. Bloomberg reported that Yemen’s Houthis launched their largest missile and drone attack to date on ships in the Red Sea, forcing a response from U.S. and U.K. forces patrolling the waterway. According to the U.S. military, American and British jets and warships shot down 18 drones and three anti-ship missiles on Tuesday night. It was the Houthis’ 26th shipping attack since November 19th. Separately, Houthi military spokesperson, Yahya Saree, said Yemen's Houthis attacked a U.S. ship "providing support" to Israel with a large number of ballistic and naval missiles and drones. U.S. Secretary of State, Antony Blinken, said there will be consequences for continued attacks on commercial shipping lanes in the Red Sea by Yemen’s Houthis and that it had been made clear to Iran that support being provided needs to stop. Kpler ship tracking data points to 288,000 mt of gasoline have been fixed for loading out of Europe with the USAC set as its destination in the week ending January 12th, a four month high for a single week.
Oil Futures Erase Gains After EIA shows Building Inventory -- Reversing lower from an early session advance, oil futures nearest delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange and Brent crude traded on the Intercontinental Exchange settled down Wednesday under pressure from large builds across U.S. crude and refined fuels stockpiles during the first week of 2024, with the downside limited by a softer U.S. dollar index. The greenback lost ground against a basket of foreign currencies on Wednesday, falling 0.2% to 102.080 as traders increased exposure to risk assets ahead of fresh inflation data for the United States. U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the Consumer Price Index for December 8:30 AM ET Thursday. A consensus calls for overall price pressure to have ticked slightly higher last month, reflecting rising food and energy prices. On the month, CPI is expected to inch up to 0.2% from November's 0.1% gain, bringing annualized rate in inflation to 3.2%. While still above the Federal Reserve's 2% target, headline inflation has fallen at a rapid clip over the past 12 months, easing from 6.5% in December 2022 to just a tick above 3% in November 2023. So-called core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy categories, is also forecast to have declined to 0.2% for December and 3.8% on an annualized basis. Investors will closely monitor the CPI report for confirmation that the Federal Reserve could start cutting interest rates in March. A stronger-than-expected employment report for December briefly pared back those bets, but more than 65% of investors still envision a 25-basis point rate cut in two months' time. That comes against a background of slowing global growth that is forecast to ease to 2.4% this year, down from 2.6% estimated for 2023, and 3% for 2022, according to the latest estimates from the World Bank. GDP for advanced economies slips from 1.5% in 2023 to 1.2% this year, and from 4% to 3.9% for emerging and developing economies, citing "the tightest financial conditions in decades." Underlying losses in the oil complex, U.S. commercial crude oil inventories unexpectedly increased 1.3 million bbl during the first week of January, with another 600,000 bbl added to the Strategic Petroleum Reserves. EIA also showed outsized builds in product inventory continued during the first week of January, with gasoline stocks up 8 million bbl to 244.982 million bbl, a 22-month high. API late Tuesday afternoon reported a 4.896 million bbl increase in gasoline stocks for the week-ended Jan. 5. A 6.5 million bbl increase in distillate inventory was more than expected by the market pre-API, while slightly below the Washington, D.C.-based trade association's survey showing a 6.873 million bbl build. Distillate stocks have now increased for seven consecutive weeks through Jan. 5 to a 132.4 million bbl 16-month high. At settlement, NYMEX West Texas Intermediate futures declined $0.87 to $71.37 bbl, and ICE March Brent fell back $0.79 to $76.80 bbl. NYMEX February ULSD futures were $0.0498 lower at $2.6006 gallon at settlement, and February RBOB declined $0.0095 to $2.0673 gallon.
The Market Was Well Supported By News That Iran Seized a Tanker Off the Coast of Oman -- The oil market on Thursday continued to trade within Monday’s trading range for the third consecutive session as it retraced Wednesday’s losses on escalating tensions in the Middle East. The market was well supported by news that Iran seized a tanker off the coast of Oman that was transporting Iraqi crude destined for Turkey in retaliation for the confiscation last year of the same vessel and its oil by the U.S. The seizure of the tanker coincides with attacks by Yemen’s Houthi militants targeting Red Sea shipping routes. The U.S. and Britain stated that they would take further measures if the attacks continued. The crude market posted a low of $71.31 in overnight trading before it bounced off that level and rallied over $2.40 to a high of $73.81 by mid-day. The market later erased some of its gains during the remainder of the session. The market gave up some of its gains on an unexpected increase in U.S. inflation. The February WTI contract settled up 65 cents at $72.02 and the March Brent contract settled up 61 cents at $77.41. The product markets ended the session higher, with the heating oil market settling up 7.32 cents at $2.6738 and the RB market settling up 4.7 cents at $2.1143. Wood Mackenzie said global oil demand is expected to increase by almost 2 million barrels a day in 2024, with China accounting for more than 25% of the increase. It projected total oil demand of 103.5 million bpd for this year. The consultancy said oil supply is expected to lag demand growth as OPEC+ supply cuts slow production growth across 2024, although it said it could move into oversupply without output restraint, especially if demand growth is lower than expectations. Barclays lowered its 2024 Brent price forecast by $8/barrel to $85/barrel. It said despite the extension of the voluntary OPEC+ reductions through the first quarter of 2024, its 2024 balance estimate is mostly unchanged. The bank maintained its forecast of 300,000 bpd oil growth in 2024. According to a British maritime security firm and the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations Authority, an oil tanker involved in a dispute between the U.S. and Iran was boarded by armed individuals east of Oman and appeared to be changing course towards Iranian waters. The security firm Ambrey said the Marshall Islands-flagged tanker's AIS tracking system was turned off as it headed in the direction of the Iranian port of Bandar e-Jask at the time it made the report. Tracking data from LSEG showed that the ship, which loaded in the Iraqi port of Basra, was heading to Aliaga in western Turkey. Source stated that Chinese refiners asked for less Saudi crude oil for February, even as the world's top oil exporter conducted its biggest price cut in 13 months. About 38.5 million barrels were nominated by Chinese refiners for February-loading, down slightly from about 40 million barrels for January. A trader said "The price cut came too late. Refineries had set plans for oil purchase and production before Saudi revealed the OSPs." Saudi Aramco has notified at least five North Asian buyers that it will supply full contractual volumes in February.
ICE Brent Spikes 4% After US-Led Coalition Strike Houthis -- Oil futures nearest delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange and Brent crude traded on the Intercontinental Exchange jumped more than 4% in overnight trading, sending international crude benchmark above $80 barrel (bbl) for the first time this year after a U.S.-led coalition launched more than a dozen attacks against Houthi targets in Yemen, risking an escalatory spiral in the broader Middle East conflict. U.S. and U.K. military overnight struck a number of key Houthi targets near Yemen's capital Sanaa, including logistical hubs, air defense systems, weapons storage, and launching locations, according to officials. The strikes represent the first U.S. military response to scores of drone and missile attacks on commercial ships by the Iran-backed Houthi militants in Yemen. "These strikes are in direct response to unprecedented Houthi attacks against international maritime vessels in the Red Sea -- including the use of anti-ship ballistic missiles for the first time in history," said U.S. President Joe Biden in a statement released by the White House. As of Friday morning, Houthi leaders said that all U.S. and U.K. interests are now legitimate targets, adding that the attacks will not go without a retaliatory response. Although traders speculated that it's unlikely the conflict would metastasize into a regional war, the risk to oil supplies and energy infrastructure has always been present. In September 2019, Houthis carried out successful attacks against Saudi oil processing facilities at Abqaiq and Khurais oil field, temporarily removing 5.7 million barrels per day (bpd) or half of Saudi oil production in a matter of hours. For context, Saudi crude oil production is currently 9 million bpd -- the lowest in 30 years outside the pandemic years. In response to the developments, Saudi Arabia's Foreign Minister Faisal bin Farhan Al-Saud Friday morning called for restraint from all parties and "avoiding escalation." Earlier this week, Houthi militia fired their largest-ever barrage of drones and missiles targeting shipping in the Red Sea, with U.S. fighter jets responding by shooting down 18 drones, two cruise missiles and an antiship missile. And on Thursday, Iranian Navy seized a U.S. oil tanker in the Sea of Oman, carrying 1.04 million bbl of oil that was loaded at the Basra port in Iraq. The oil tanker was seized by the United States in 2023 for allegedly trying to sell more than 980,000 bbl of Iranian oil to China in violation of U.S. sanctions. Container ships have been forced to reroute voyage through the Suez Canal and Red Sea -- the shortest path between Europe and Asia, to around the Cape of Horn of Africa because of the Houthi attacks, raising global transport costs. Should the conflict in the Red Sea region persist or escalate further, it would add oil and energy-driven cost pressures to the inflation data across countries that are part of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development. Near 8:30 a.m. EST, ICE March Brent futures advanced $2.42 to $79.83 bbl, retreating from an overnight high of $80.75 bbl. West Texas Intermediate February futures on NYMEX rallied $2.33 bbl to near $74.35 bbl. NYMEX February ULSD futures rallied $0.0911 to $2.7649 gallon, NYMEX February RBOB futures gained $0.0630 to near $2.1773 gallon.
Oil up 1% as Middle East tensions offset US inflation worries (Reuters) - Oil prices gained on Friday as some oil tankers diverted course from the Red Sea after overnight strikes by the U.S. and Britain on Houthi targets in Yemen, while U.S. Treasury yields eased on news that U.S. producer prices unexpectedly fell in December. Wall Street stocks closed nearly flat after moving between modest gains and losses during the session. U.S. earnings season unofficially began, with major U.S. banks reporting lower profit on Friday in a quarter hit by special charges and job cuts and signs some consumer loans are starting to sour. Even as its quarterly profit fell, JPMorgan Chase (JPM.N) reported its best-ever annual profit and forecast higher-than-expected interest income for 2024. Its shares fell 0.7%, and an S&P 500 bank index (.SPXBK) dropped 1.3%. American and British warplanes, ships and submarines launched dozens of air strikes across Yemen overnight in retaliation against Iran-backed Houthi forces for attacks on Red Sea shipping. The move widened a conflict stemming from Israel's war in Gaza. Brent crude futures rose 88 cents, or 1.1%, to settle at $78.29 a barrel. The session high was more than $80, highest this year so far. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures climbed 66 cents, or 0.9%, to settle at $72.68, paring gains after touching a 2024 high of $75.25. The U.S. PPI data raised expectations of an early U.S. interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve. The producer price index for final demand dipped 0.1% last month as the cost of goods declined, while prices for services were unchanged, which bodes well for lower inflation in the months ahead. Data on Thursday showed U.S. consumer prices rose more than expected in December. "Markets are shrugging off yesterday's CPI report since the underlying inflation trend is improving and the Fed can legitimately consider cutting rates this year," Jeffrey Roach, chief economist for LPL Financial in Charlotte, North Carolina, wrote. "The inflation pipeline is clearing and consumer prices will gradually get to the Fed's 2% target." U.S. two-year Treasury yields dropped to their lowest since May at 4.119% in the wake of the PPI data. They were last down 11.8 basis points (bps) at 4.142%. For the week, two-year yields, which reflect rate move expectations, were down 13.1 bps, their worst weekly showing in a month. The benchmark 10-year yield slid to a one-week trough of 3.916% , and was last at 3.955%, down 1.7 bps. The U.S. rate futures market has priced a nearly 80% chance of a rate cut at the Fed's March policy meeting, up from 71% late on Thursday, according to LSEG's rate probability app. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 118.04 points, or 0.31%, to 37,592.98. The S&P 500 (.SPX) gained 3.59 points, or 0.08%, at 4,783.83 and the Nasdaq Composite rose 2.58 points, or 0.02%, to 14,972.76. For the week, the S&P 500 rose 1.84% in its biggest weekly percentage gain since mid-December. European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde said rates could be cut if the central bank was sure that inflation had fallen to its 2% target. The dollar index pared gains after the PPI data. The dollar index was last up 0.19% at 102.40.
Iran Seizes Tanker in Retaliation for the US Stealing Its Oil - Iran seized an American tanker in the Gulf of Oman on Thursday in retaliation for the US previously seizing the same tanker and stealing a shipment of Iranian oil that it was carrying. In April 2023, the US forced the tanker, formerly named Suez Rajan, to sail to Texas when it was carrying 800,000 barrels of Iranian oil using the pretext of sanctions enforcement. The ship sat off the coast of Texas for months as Iran was warning of retaliation if it was discharged, and American companies did not want to be involved. But the oil, worth approximately $56 million, was eventually transferred to another tanker in August 2023. Iran’s Fars news agency reported on Thursday: “Following the violation of the Suez Rajan in April and the theft of Iranian oil by the United States, the oil tanker renamed St. Nicholas was seized in retaliation this morning by the court order and the approval of the Ports and Shipping Organization by the strategic Navy of the Islamic Republic of Iran Army and transferred to Iranian ports.” The report said the tanker was taken because it had stolen cargo belonging to Iran at the direction of the US. The St. Nicholas was seized after it was loaded with oil in Basra, Iraq, and was bound for Aliaga, Turkey, via the Suez Canal. The US has a history of seizing tankers carrying Iranian oil and gas and outright stealing the cargo by selling it off for profit, and Iran has previously seized tankers in retaliation for US actions. In 2022, the US seized a tanker carrying Iranian oil in Greece and attempted to take the cargo, but a Greek court ruled against the confiscation. Tehran seized two Greek tankers in response to the US move and released them after the court’s ruling. In 2021, the US government sold 2 million barrels of Iranian oil for $110 million from a tanker seized near the UAE. During the Trump administration, the US sold off Iranian gas that was bound for Venezuela.
Houthis launch biggest attack yet in Red Sea Yemen’s Houthi rebels fired a barrage of rockets and missiles at U.S. and U.K. forces in the Red Sea on Tuesday night in the group’s largest attack yet on ships in the region since conflict erupted in November. U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) said the Houthis launched the attack from Yemen at 9:15 p.m. local time in the southern Red Sea, sending a “complex” number of anti-ship cruise missiles, suicide drones and anti-ship ballistic missiles toward commercial and merchant ships transiting the corridor. In the statement, CENTCOM said 18 suicide drones were shot down, two anti-ship cruise missiles, and one anti-ship ballistic missile were shot down by U.S. and U.K. forces.The aircraft carrier USS Dwight D. Eisenhower, along with destroyer ships USS Gravely, USS Laboon, USS Mason and the U.K.’s HMS Diamond all responded to the attack.There does not appear to be any damage to U.S. and U.K. forces or to the merchant ships they were guarding. The Houthis said in a statement on Telegram that fighters targeted an American ship providing support to Israel.The rebels said they will continue to “prevent Israeli ships or those headed to the ports of occupied Palestine from navigating in the Arabian and Red Seas until the aggression stops and the siege on our steadfast brothers in the Gaza Strip is lifted.” The Houthis have attacked commercial ships 26 times since Nov. 19 in a campaign they say is targeting Israeli-based ships or boats en route to Israel. Like other Iranian-backed groups, the Houthis say they are standing up for Palestinians as Israel fights a major war against Palestinian militant group Hamas in Gaza. The U.S. last month convened a multi-nation task force under an existing maritime framework to defend merchant boats and combat the Houthi threat in the Red Sea, which has scared off major shipping companies and surged cargo prices. The task force is being tested by the Houthis, who have refused to back down and are continuing the attacks in the Red Sea. For now, some major shipping companies are avoiding the Red Sea and are instead transiting around the Cape of Good Hope in Africa.
Shipping Giant Halts Container Ship Sails To Israel Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen have targeted commercial vessels with drones and missiles passing through the southern Red Sea. They say the attacks on ships destined for Israel are in solidarity with Palestinians and to facilitate humanitarian aid into the Gaza Strip. As a result, one major shipping company has had enough of the disruptions and decided to halt sails to Israel to avoid being attacked on the critical waterway that connects to the Suez Canal. Bloomberg reports that Chinese state-owned shipping giant Cosco suspended all container ship transits through the Red Sea to Israel. This is to avoid being attacked. The head of the Israeli Chambers of Commerce, Amir Shani, said Cosco informed him of the decision today. A source told Bloomberg that Cosco bookings to Israel will end next week. Major shipping companies, such as Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd, suspended container ship sailings through the Red Sea in recent weeks. This has forced shippers to re-route cargo to the Cape of Good Hope, adding 1-2 weeks to sails plus additional costs. Longer sails have reduced container capacity, which has sent shipping rates surging higher. So far, shippers have diverted more than $200 billion in trade over the last several weeks.As of Monday morning, there are no container ships with destinations for Europe and North America in the Red Sea. However, Bloomberg noted a "majority of oil and gas tankers continue to transit the Red Sea despite ongoing attacks, although some vessels have taken diversions to avoid the route." Still, the critical waterway that's responsible for 10-12% of global seaborne trade by volume is still a highly contested area. Yet more evidence of the Pentagon's Operation Prosperity Guardian mission to police the Red Sea is failing.
Attack on US Ship as 'Initial Response' to Sinking of Houthi Boats - Yemen’s Houthis, officially known as Ansar Allah, said Wednesday that its forces attacked a US ship in the Red Sea as part of an “initial response” to a recent incident where the US military sank three Houthis boats, killing 10 Yemenis.Houthi military spokesman Yahya Sarea said Ansar Allah forces “executed a joint military operation involving a large number of ballistic and naval missiles and drones, targeting an American ship that was providing support to the Zionist entity.”US Central Command said that US fighter jets, several US warships, and a British naval vessel downed 18 Houthi drones, two anti-ship cruise missiles, and one anti-ship ballistic missile. It’s unclear if the attack is the same incident Sarea referenced. CENTCOM said the attack targeted “commercial shipping” and that there was no damage or injuries.The Associated Press reported the drone and missile barrage reported by CENTCOM marked the largest Houthi attack in the Red Sea. The Houthis started targeting Israeli-linked commercial shipping in response to the onslaught in Gaza and have vowed not to back down in the face of the US military.Also on Wednesday, the UN Security Council voted to condemn the Houthi attacks “in the strongest terms.” Eleven countries voted in favor of the resolution, and four abstained: China, Russia, Algeria, and Mozambique. The Houthis dismissed the resolution as a “political game.”Sarea reaffirmed that the Houthis would continue to “prevent Israeli ships or those headed to the ports of occupied Palestine from navigating in the Arabian and Red Seas until the aggression stops and the siege on our steadfast brothers in the Gaza Strip is lifted.”
U.S. and UK Forces Hit Military Targets in Yemen - - Yves Smith -- U.S. and UK forces in the Red Sea have struck military targets in Yemen in response to Houthi attacks on ships in the area.Reuters cited witnesses as saying there had been strikes across the country.“These targeted strikes are a clear message that the United States and our partners will not tolerate attacks on our personnel or allow hostile actors to imperil freedom of navigation,” President Biden said in a statement following the air and sea strikes.The escalation follows what the U.S. Central Command called the biggest Houthi attack yet, the U.S. and UK forces in the Red Sea shot down 21 drones and missiles on Tuesday. The Houthis’ military spokesman, Yahya Saree, said they had attacked a U.S. military ship because it was “providing support” to Israel.The news of the U.S. and UK retaliation pushed oil prices higher, initially spiking by more than 2% before retreating some. In mid-morning trade in Asia today, Brent crude was trading above $78 per barrel, with West Texas Intermediateat over $73 per barrel.The U.S. and UK strikes on Yemen are the first on the country’s territory since 2016, Reuters noted in its report as it recalled that the Houthis have made a vow to respond to any attack in kind. This would mean further escalation of the Middle Eastern conflict.“The concern is that this could escalate,” security studies professor Andreas Krieg from King’s College in London told Reuters, noting Saudi Arabia and the UAE could be drawn into the war. The Saudis have already issued a statement calling for restraint and avoidance of escalation.“The kingdom emphasizes the importance of maintaining the security and stability of the Red Sea region, as the freedom of navigation in it is an international demand,” the Saudi foreign ministry said in the statement.
US and UK Bomb Dozens of Sites in Yemen - The US and the UK on Thursday night launched strikes against more than a dozen sites in Houthi-controlled areas of Yemen, where the majority of Yemenis live, in a move that risks escalating the situation in the Middle East into a major regional war.A US official told CNN that the strikes were launched by fighter jets and Tomahawk missiles fired by warships and submarines and that Houthi drone and missile sites were targeted. Yemeni media reported strikes in several cities, including the capital, Sanaa, and the Red Sea port of Hodeidah. President Biden said in a statement that the strikes received support from Australia, Canada, the Netherlands, and Bahrain. He claimed that the US and Britain “successfully conducted strikes against a number of targets in Yemen used by Houthi rebels to endanger freedom of navigation.” The bombing of Yemen came in response to Houthi attacks on Israel-linked shipping in the Red Sea that started in protest of the US-backed Israeli onslaught in Gaza. The Houthis, officially known as Ansar Allah, have vowed not to back down in the face of the US military and said their attacks in the Red Sea will only stop once the Israeli slaughter in Gaza ends. So far, there have been no reports of the number of casualties caused by the US and British strikes. The US and its allies have a history of killing civilians in Yemen, as the UN estimated in 2021 that about 377,000 people were killed by the US-backed Saudi/UAE war against the Houthis that started in 2015. More than half died of starvation and disease caused by the blockade and the coalition’s brutal bombing campaign. Some members of Congress have criticized President Biden for launching the strikes in Yemen without congressional authorization. “The President needs to come to Congress before launching a strike against the Houthis in Yemen and involving us in another middle east conflict. That is Article I of the Constitution,” Rep. Ro Khanna (D-CA) wrote on X.
Houthis Undeterred After US Coalition Pummels Over 60 Targets With Tomahawk Missiles, Airstrikes -The Thursday night US and UK-led major strikes on Houthi-controlled areas of Yemen, while posing a significant risk for escalating the Gaza war into a regional conflict, still apparently have not deterred the Iran-backed rebel group's resolve to attack Red Sea shipping and even Western naval vessels.Houthi spokesman Brig. Gen. Yahya Saree released a videotaped address saying "The American and British enemy bears full responsibility for its criminal aggression against our Yemeni people, and it will not go unanswered and unpunished." Houthi sources have tallied over 70 strikes across five regions of Yemen, indicating that at least five people died in the attacks. The Pentagon indicated over 100 missiles of a variety of types were used.The US Air Force's Mideast command said in a statement that a combination of jets, destroyers, and a submarine were used, hitting Houthi "command-and-control nodes, munitions depots, launching systems, production facilities and air defense radar systems" in the operation which followed repeat Houthi attacks on Red Sea vessels. "I will not hesitate to direct further measures to protect our people and the free flow of international commerce as necessary," President Biden had said in a written statement."These strikes are in direct response to unprecedented Houthi attacks against international maritime vessels in the Red Sea—including the use of anti-ship ballistic missiles for the first time in history," the US Commander-in-Chief had added.According go more details of the variety of weapons systems and platforms used: More than 15 F/A-18 Super Hornet strike fighters operating from the aircraft carrier USS Dwight D. Eisenhower were involved, according to Fox News, citing unnamed Pentagon sources. Unspecified Air Force fighters operating from a base in the Middle East were also part of the attack. Newsweek has yet to verify these reports.The USS Florida guided missile submarine and U.S. surface ships launched Tomahawk cruise missiles. It is not clear what other vessels took part in the bombardment, but American Arleigh Burke-class guided-missile destroyers have been operating in the Red Sea in recent months.But though intense, it was a relatively brief attack, likely lasting not more than 30 minutes, or definitely less than an hour. Videos of large fireballs lighting up the night sky looded social media as key cities like Saana and the port city of Hodeidah were hit, where there also remain large population centers.But again, the key takeaway here is that after these brief fireworks which many officials have complained comes much too belatedly (though some US lawmakers have already highlighted there was no Congressional approval), the Houthis are likely soon to resume their attacks. Also likely is that there will eventually be more rounds of coalition strikes on Yemen as the crisis endures. Thursday night's attack is likely to actually result in further reduced commercial shipping traffic in Red Sea waters now visited by war:
Yemen Issues Defiant Response to US and UK Strikes - A day after dozens of US and UK bombs and missiles rained down on northern Yemen, tens of thousands took to the streets in a show of unity. Yemeni officials downplayed the impact of the Western strikes claiming a small number of casualties and minor infrastructure damage.On Thursday night, the US and UK fired scores of munitions at Yemen. US Central Command claimed that the strikes “targeted radar systems, air defense systems, and storage and launch sites for one-way attack unmanned aerial systems, cruise missiles, and ballistic missiles.” Washington reports striking 60 targets across 16 locations.According to the Guardian, British forces hit targets in northwest Yemen, while Americans targeted larger cities including Saada, Saana, and Hodeida. Both the airport and port in Hodeida were reported to be targets. The Port of Hodeida is crucial for commerce and for badly needed aid to reach the country.On Friday, the Houthis reported the Western strikes had a minimal impact. Yemeni officials reported five fighters were killed and six wounded. The Houthis said damage to their infrastructure was limited but attacks would not go “unanswered and unpunished.” Nasr Aldeen Amer, vice president of the Houthi Media Authority, stated“Without hesitation, and we will not back down from our position in supporting the Palestinian people, whatever the cost.” At least tens of thousands of Yemenis turned out in multiple cities the day after the strike in a show of unity.The US and UK are bombing Yemen as a spillover of Israel’s brutal war in Gaza. The Houthis have pledged to stop all Israeli-linked shipping in the Red Sea in an effort to pressure Tel Aviv to end its military campaign against the besieged Gaza Strip.Washington and London claim the Houthis attempt to block Israeli shipping violates “freedom of navigation” and international law. However, the US has helped Saudi Arabia enforce a blockade of Yemen for about nine years.
Fresh Attack On US Base At Syrian Oilfield After Coalition Bombs Yemen: Reports - Emerging reports in Iranian state media and from Iraqi and Russian sources have indicated the US base at Syria's Conoco oilfield in northeast Syria has come under fresh attack on Friday.Additionally Sputnik’s regional correspondent has cited a series of violent explosions at the US outpost. The statement, though unconfirmed in other international sources, said the "American air defenses tried to confront the missile attack with their ground and air anti-aircraft weapons, to no avail… the American occupation army’s air force and helicopters, in the meantime, began flying over the skies of the towns surrounding its bases."Iranian state IRNA said "the US military base has come under attacks by the Iraqi resistance groups in response to the Washington-backed Israeli war crimes in Gaza Strip" on Friday.Overnight, the US and UK launched a major assault on Iran-linked Houthis in Yemen, related to the Red Sea shipping crisis, and American bases in the regions are now bracing for a response from Tehran-backed militants.Beirut-based media outlet The Cradle says that although Iraqi militia sources have yet to confirm the new operation targeting Conoco, "The attack comes just days after US forces carried out live drills near the Conoco base, aimed at training for potential attacks on the facility."There are other significant rumors that additional bases in the region could be facing hostile fire, but nothing has been verified from the Pentagon or US Central Command at this early stage.But what has been confirmed is the recent soaring number of attacks, according Military Times:U.S. troops deployed to Iraq and Syria have come under attack from Iran-backed militias 130 times since Oct. 17 as of Thursday, according to the Pentagon, totaling 53 attacks in Iraq and 77 in Syria.The drone, rocket, mortar and missile attacks have injured 69 U.S. troops, but a Pentagon spokesman said Thursday that no troops have been injured since Dec. 25. "When it comes to U.S. forces in the region, again, we’re there for one reason and one reason only, which is the enduring defeat of ISIS,” Air Force Maj. Gen. Pat Ryder said in a fresh briefing. "And so we will continue to call on these Iranian proxies to cease these attacks, but we won’t hesitate, as we’ve demonstrated in the past, to take appropriate action to protect our forces should we need to do that."
Saudi Arabia Calls for US To 'Avoid Escalation' in Yemen - Saudi Arabia is asking the White House to show restraint in Yemen and avoid further escalating fighting with the Houthis. Riyadh is one of Washington’s closest partners in the Middle East and has been at war with the Houthis for nine years but is nearing an agreement to end the war with Saana. On Thursday, the US and UK targeted 16 sites in Yemen with at least 60 rockets and missiles. Pentagon spokesman Patrick Ryder claimed the strikes had a “good effect.” Yemeni officials say the bombs did minor damage and killed five figures. Houthi leaders pledged to respond to the US and UK attacks. A White House statement after the attack warned that Biden “will not hesitate to direct further measures to protect our people and the free flow of international commerce, as necessary.” However, Saudi Arabia expressed “great concern” about the Western airstrikes and called for “self-restraint and to avoid escalation.” Riyadh is one of Washington’s core partners in the Middle East. Saudi Arabia went to war with Yemen in 2015 after the Houthis seized power. The US backed the Saudi war in Yemen, providing Riyadh with weapons, intelligence, and logistical support in the war. The Saudi war in Yemen targeted large portions of Yemen’s civilian infrastructure, creating a grave humanitarian crisis. At least 377,000 Yemenis died in the Saudi-led war. Contributing to the starvation that claimed the lives of tens of thousands of children was a blockade of Yemen, enforced by the US and Saudi Arabia. A ceasefire brought cross-border attacks between Saudi Arabia and Yemen to an end in 2022. The UN reports that the Houthis are now nearing a peace agreement with Riyadh that would bring the war to a conclusion. If the US continues to strike Yemen by hitting targets in the Middle East and East Africa, including those in Saudi Arabia, this may well bring the fragile truce in Yemen to an end.
White House Conducts Additional Strike in Yemen -The US followed up its widespread bombing of Yemen by conductinganother strike early Saturday morning. The second attack came as Biden is facing criticism among his political and Middle East allies for starting a war with the Houthis.US officials reported that Saturday’s strike targeted a radar facility that was missed during Thursday night’s initial attack. US Central Command posted on X, “The strike was conducted by the USS Carney (DDG 64) using Tomahawk Land Attack Missiles and was a follow-on action on a specific military target associated with strikes taken on Jan. 12.” The initial attack was conducted jointly by the US and UK. Washington and London targeted nearly 30 positions across Yemen with scores of missiles and bombs. Pentagon Spokesperson Gen. Pat Ryder said the attack had a “good effect.” However, Yemen issued a defiant response. Tens of thousands of Yemenis took to the streets across the country to protest the Western attack. Houthi leaders downplayed the impact of the strikes and vowed a response to the attack.The Biden administration claimed the strikes were needed to restore freedom of navigation in the Red Sea. The Houthis, who control north Yemen and most of the country’s population, have hijacked one ship and attacked about two dozen others transiting the Red Sea. The Houthis say they are targeting Israeli-linked ships because Tel Aviv is conducting a genocide in Gaza.The White House’s assertion that the strikes are justified to ensure international trade is questionable. For most of the past nine years, Washington and Riyadh have maintained a blockade of Yemen, leading to a humanitarian crisis in the Middle East’s poorest country. The US has also attempted to substantially restrict trade with North Korea, Cuba, Venezuela, Russia, China, Syria, Afghanistan, and Iran.Biden’s authority to order the strikes in a country against which Congress has not authorized a war is in question. “The President needs to come to Congress before launching a strike against the Houthis in Yemen and involving us in another Middle East conflict. That is Article I of the Constitution,” Rep. Ro Khanna posted on X. Democratic lawmakers Rep. Pramila Jayapal, Rep. Val Hoyle, Rep. Rashida Tlaib, Rep. Cori Bush, Rep. Mark Pocan, Rep. Barbara Lee, and Rep. Sarah Jacobs have also publicly attacked Biden over the strikes in Yemen.
Hezbollah Trades Heavy Fire With Israel, Damages Strategic Airbase - Still angry at the assassination of top Hamas figure Saleh al-Harouri in Beirut last week, the Hezbollah movement carried out what it called a “preliminary response,” trading heavy fire with Israel along the Lebanese border.Hezbollah focused the attack on a hilltop observation post, firing off 62 rockets. The outpost was purported to be for “observation” and “aerial control.” Israel later confirmed the attacks hit the strategic airbase at Mt. Meron.Though Israel was somewhat late in commenting at all, beyond saying they’d retaliated against the “terrorist cell,” Israeli officials ultimately admitted Mt. Meron sustained “extensive damage” from the strikes. Mt. Meron is an aerial control site for the Israeli Air Force, and essentially serves the northern air control unit. The Hezbollah strike came with anti-tank missiles, not smaller ones that could be intercepted by Iron Dome. What’s embarrassing is that Israel doesn’t have a way to intercept these missiles, which fly at low altitude. Essentially, they had to sustain all the damage to the base. It is not clear how functional it remains after the attacks.
Israeli Military Chief Says 'Fighting' in Gaza Will Continue All Year - The head of the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) said Sunday that he expects Israel to continue its brutal assault on the Gaza Strip all year.“The year 2024 will be challenging. We will be at war in Gaza,” said IDF Chief of Staff Herzi Halevi during a visit to the West Bank. “I don’t know if it will be all year long. We will be fighting in Gaza all year, that’s for sure, and this will also hold the other arenas, certainly in [the West Bank], to a certain state of alertness.”Halevi also warned of the possibility of “another war” in Lebanon as cross-border strikes between Hezbollah and the IDF have increased since Israel launched a drone strike in Beirut that killed a senior Hamas official last week.On Saturday, IDF spokesman Daniel Hagari said moving forward, Israel would be focusing its operations in Gaza on the central and southern portion of the Strip, where most of the 2.3 million Palestinians who live in the enclave are located after many fleed Israel’s bombardment in the north.Hagari signaled Israeli operations in the north might wind down, claiming Israel has dismantled the “military framework” of Hamas in the area. He said there continues to be fighting but that Hamas had been left “without a framework and without commanders.”“Now, we are focusing on dismantling Hamas in the central and southern Gaza Strip. We will do this differently, thoroughly, based on the lessons we have learned from the fighting so far,” Hagari said.According to the latest numbers from Gaza’s Health Ministry, nearly 23,000 Palestinians have been killed in Gaza since October 7, mostly women and children. As the siege continues, hundreds of thousands of Palestiniansare at risk of dying of starvation or disease. Despite the horrific situation on the ground, the US continues to provide unconditional military support for Israel.
Israeli Military Claims It Killed Hamas Official in Syria - The Israeli military claimed on Monday that it “eliminated” a Hamas official in southern Syria who was allegedly responsible for rocket attacks on Israel. The Israeli military named the Hamas official Hassan Akasha and said he was a “central figure” in rocket attacks on Israel. But Israel provided no evidence for the claim, and many elements inside Syria have the motive to attack Israel since the Israeli military has been bombing the country for years with impunity. “Since the beginning of the war, Akasha directed Hamas terrorist cells which fired rockets from Syria toward Israeli territory,” the Israeli military said in a statement. The statement did not say how Akasha was killed, and so far, there’s been no confirmation of his death from Syria or Hamas.Before October 7, Israeli warplanes bombed Syria at least 25 times, and the airstrikes have significantly escalated since then. In one airstrike, Israelkilled a senior member of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). The claim about the killing of a Hamas official in Syria comes amid fears of Israel’s onslaught in Gaza escalating into a major regional war that could draw in the US. Israel seems determined to escalate things as it has been launching attacks across the region, including a drone strike in Beirut last week that killed a senior Hamas official.
Qatar Tells Hostage Families That Israel's Killing of Hamas Official in Beirut Complicates Negotiations - Qatar’s prime minister and other officials met with family members of six Israelis held captive in Gaza on Saturday and told them Israel’s killing of a senior Hamas official in Beirut made negotiating a new hostage deal much more difficult, several media outlets have reported.Israel launched a drone strike in Beirut on January 2 that killed Saleh al-Arouri, the deputy chief of Hamas’s political bureau, who played a key role in negotiating the deal that resulted in over 100 Israelis and over 200 Palestinians being freed. A day before the drone strike, Israeli officials told the media that Hamas was showing a willingness to negotiate.Qatari Prime Minister Mohammed bin Abdulrahman al-Thani hosted families of Israeli hostages in Doha and told them Qatar was committed to working toward their release. “We have engaged directly with the hostages’ families to share as much information as possible, and to assure them that Qatar is committed to using every resource to secure their release. We will continue to engage with these families,” a Qatari official told Axios.The official said Qatar is “using every possible channel” but stressed that “Qatar is a mediator” and “does not control Hamas.” The official said it’s become “increasingly difficult” to maintain channels of communication due to the “escalation of bombardment in Gaza and elsewhere, which candidly complicates the hostage negotiations.”Besides sabotaging negotiations, the Israeli drone strike in Beirut also risks a major regional war that could draw in the US. Hezbollah has vowed retaliation and said it fired 62 rockets at an Israeli observation post on Saturday in what it called a “preliminary response” to the assassination of al-Arouri. The Israel strike on Beirut marked the first time Israel bombed the Lebanese capital since the 2006 Lebanon War. In November, Axios reported that US officials were worried Israel was trying to provoke Hezbollah as a pretext for a wider war in Lebanon.
October 7 Probe Ignites Tensions Between Military and Netanyahu Allies - Tensions between the Israeli military and several Israeli politicians boiled over during a war cabinet meeting about an investigation into the October 7 Hamas attack. The government led by Benjamin Netanyahu has deflected blame for the Hamas intrusion in southern Israel. Several reports have produced evidence that Tel Aviv should have been able to prevent the attack.During the war cabinet meeting, the Israeli military announced plans to conduct an official inquiry into the October 7 Hamas attack. The Financial Times reports, “One Israeli official confirmed that [the Israeli military representative] was attacked by several senior ministers over both the timing and make-up of the probe.”Benny Gantz, a cabinet minister and member of the National Unity party, said the probe was “a politically motivated attack in the middle of a war. I participated in many cabinet meetings — such conduct has never occurred and must not occur.”The Financial Times report continues, “The argument was sparked, according to the official, by transport minister Miri Regev, a politician from Netanyahu’s Likud party who is seen as an ally of the prime minister.”“Regev’s intervention was followed by far-right ministers such as Bezalel Smotrich, the finance minister, and Itamar Ben-Gvir, the national security minister.”Smotrich, an extremist settler who called for the ethnic cleansing of Gaza, explained there had been a “heated discussion” in the cabinet meeting about the timing of the probe. The investigation follows a lawsuit by survivors of the Nova Music Festival, who claim the Israeli government failed in their duty.The lawsuit says, “A single phone call by [Israeli military] to the commander responsible for the party to disperse it immediately in view of the expected danger would have saved lives and prevented the physical and mental injuries of hundreds of partygoers, including the plaintiffs.”
US Officials Think Netanyahu Might See War in Lebanon as Key to Political Survival - Some US officials are concerned that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu might see an expanded war in Lebanon as key to his political survival, The Washington Post reported on Sunday. Polls show the majority of Israelis want Netanyahu to resign once the campaign in Gaza is over, giving him the incentive to continue the slaughter and escalate the situation into a regional conflict that draws in the US. Hezbollah and its leader Hasan Nasrallah, on the other hand, are not seeking a wider war, according to the US officials who spoke with the Post. But the two sides continue to trade significant fire across the border, which has increased since Israel escalated the situation by launching a drone strike in Beirut last week that killed a senior Hamas official. On Monday, an Israeli airstrike in Lebanon killed Wissam Hassan Tawil, a top Hezbollah commander, escalating the situation even further. Israeli officials also continue to threaten a major war in Lebanon if Hezbollah does not move back from the Israeli border. In his latest threat, Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant said Israel could “copy-paste” the destruction in Gaza into Beirut. Gallant has said Israel’s open to diplomacy, but US officials concede a deal with Hezbollah is unlikely as long as Israel is still slaughtering Palestinians in Gaza. An intelligence assessment from the Pentagon’s Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) found that if the situation in Lebanon does escalate, Israel would have a hard time-fighting Hezbollah. The Post report reads: “A new secret assessment from the [DIA] found that it will be difficult for Israel Defense Forces (IDF) to succeed because its military assets and resources would be spread too thin given the conflict in Gaza.” US officials told HuffPost that they believe President Biden’s policy of unconditional military aid to Israel could embolden Israel to expand in Lebanon and lead the US into a major Middle East war. “Every scenario shows this would escalate into something terrible… whether in terms of counterterrorism or war with Iran,” one official said, citing Pentagon war games.
Israeli MK Doubles Down on Call to 'Burn' Gaza, Says There Are 'No Innocents' - A member of the Israeli Knesset has doubled down on comments he made in November when he called to “burn Gaza now” and is now claiming there are “no innocents” in areas where the Israeli military ordered evacuations.“I stand behind what I said. It is better to burn, to take down buildings, than that our soldiers should be harmed,” said MK Nissim Vaturi, a member of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud Party.“I said to ‘burn Gaza.’ What does it mean to burn? To go in and rip them apart. There should be no thoughts, no considerations. The soldiers of the IDF should not think for one second and be hurt because we need to be humane,” Vaturi added.Discussing the areas where the Israeli military ordered evacuations, Vaturi said, “We evacuated them all – we succeeded in evacuating 1,900,000 in an organized fashion, and there are 100,0000 left. I don’t think that there are any innocents there now – not now, and not when I made my statement.” Vaturi’s comments come a day before the International Court of Justice (ICJ) will hold its first hearing on South Africa’s genocide case that it has brought against Israel. The 84-page filing submitted by South Africa cites genocidal rhetoric from Israeli officials as evidence of Israel’s intent to commit genocide against Gaza’s Palestinian population.
South Africa Presents Genocide Case Against Israel at ICJ - South African officials and lawyers on Thursday made their case at the International Court of Justice in The Hague to show that Israel is committing genocide against the Palestinian population of Gaza.The over three-hour hearing was an indictment of the US-backed Israeli campaign in Gaza, which has killed over 23,000 Palestinians, mainly women and children, in just over three months.South Africa said Israel breached the Genocide Convention of 1948, which Israel is a signatory to, and Pretoria invoked to bring Israel to the ICJ. Article II of the Convention defines genocide as “a crime committed with the intent to destroy a national, ethnic, racial or religious group, in whole or in part.”Referencing the October 7 Hamas attack on southern Israel, South African Justice Minister Ronald Lamola said that no “armed attack on a state territory, no matter how serious, even an attack involving atrocity crimes, can provide justification for or defense to breaches to the Convention whether it’s a matter of law or morality.” South Africa referenced Israel’s brutal bombing campaign and siege tactics to demonstrate that its actions are genocidal. “For the past 96 days, Israel has subjected Gaza to what has been described as one of the heaviest conventional bombing campaigns in the history of modern warfare,” said Adila Hassim, one of the lawyers representing South Africa.“Palestinians in Gaza are being killed by Israeli weaponry and bombs from air, land, and sea. They are also at immediate risk of death by starvation, dehydration, and disease as a result of the ongoing siege … the level of Israel’s killing is so extensive that nowhere is safe in Gaza,” she said.To prove that Israel is committing genocide, South Africa needs to demonstrate that Israeli officials have the intent to do so. South Africa pointed to the genocidal rhetoric from Israeli officials that has been common since October 7, including Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu referencing the Bible story about the nation of Amalek.“You must remember what Amalek has done to you, says our Holy Bible. And we do remember, and we are fighting,” Netanyahu said in October.Chapter 15, verse 3 of the Bible book of 1 Samuel reads: “Now go and smite Amalek, and utterly destroy all that they have, and spare them not; but slay both man and woman, infant and suckling, ox and sheep, camel, and ass.”
Israel Raises Major Procedural Problem with South Africa Filing, Challenges “Genocidal Intent” by Citing Policies, Relief by Yves Smith It would be better if I were wrong. However, my take, having listened to the Israel presentation at the International Court of Justice hearing on South Africa’s genocide filing, is the court will not approve South Africa’s “request for the indication of provisional measures”. Remember, this is not a final ruling on the allegation that Israel has been engaging in genocide. This is an expedited initial ruling, analogous to a preliminary injunction in the US. Here, the standard is that the plaintiffs presented a credible-enough factual and legal case regarding conduct that if not halted, could result in serious harm. Mind you, this not being an Anglosphere court, the procedure and specific standards are different. In the normal course of events, the underlying case still proceeds on its normal (leisurely) timetable, with the alleged perps still perping until a final ruling.Nevertheless the distressing thing is such a ruling against South Africa’s “request for the indication of provisional measures” would be ballyhooed by Israel and its backers as the court validating Israel’s version of events, that Hamas is a bunch of monsters and everything Israel did was warranted as self defense. If Israel wins this round by successfully punching holes in the South Africa filing, particularly on procedure, don’t expect to see a lot of fastidious reporting.If you managed to catch the start of Israel’s oral arguments, it was infuriating if you have been following the debunkings of Israel’s charge of Hamas engaging in wanton savagery during its October 7 raid. Expect Aaron Mate and Max Blumenthal having a field day shredding these recycled and largely debunked claims.The first Israel presenter also reinforced the trope of Hamas being in the business of committing genocide, as in conflating an end the state of Israel as tantamount to wiping out the Jewish people. Later presenters tried to depict most of the harm done to Gazans as Hamas’ doing, via misfiring rockets landing in Gaza, booby-trapped buildings killing civilians, and buildings collapsing due to the tunnels underneath them. But that was secondary to the torture-porn level allegations.
Israel Seen as Even More Likely to Launch War with Lebanon as Fate of ICJ Suit Uncertain Due to China and Russia Doubts --As feared, Israel looks determined to go to war against Lebanon as the vote-count on the ICJ genocide case may favor Israel.
Russia's Intensified Airstrikes are Depleting Ukraine's Air Defenses - Ukraine’s air defenses are being depleted by Russia’s intensified missile and drone attacks as Western military aid for Ukraine is drying up. “Intense Russian air attacks force us to use a corresponding amount of air defense means,” Ukrainian Air Force spokesman Yurii Ihnat said on Monday, according to The Associated Press. “That’s why we need more of them, as Russia keeps increasing its (air) attack capabilities.”Russia has stepped up strikes across Ukraine, and Ukrainian forces have been launching more attacks inside Russian territory, including a recent missile strike on Russia’s Belgorod Oblast that killed 25 people. After the Belgorod strike, Russian President Vladimir Putin vowed to increase attacks even more.According to Ukrainian officials, 500 Russian missiles and drones were fired across Ukraine from December 29 to January 2. Ukrainian President Volodomy Zelensky said Sunday that his country lacks “a very concrete and understandable thing, that is air defense systems.” The problem for Ukraine is that its war effort is still entirely reliant on Western support, and the US, its biggest benefactor, has said it doesn’t have the funds to send more arms. The Pentagon said last week that it’s “out of money” to send more weapons to Ukraine until Congress authorizes more spending on the proxy war.President Biden is seeking over $60 billion to fuel the war in Ukraine for another year despite the reality that Ukrainian forces have no chance of winning on the battlefield. Republicans in Congress are holding out on authorizing the aid as leverage to get a deal to make changes to border policies and immigration laws. It’s still unclear when an agreement will be reached as Senate negotiators met on Monday and said the two sides are still far apart.
France appoints youngest-ever and first openly gay prime minister -- Gabriel Attal was named Tuesday as France’s youngest-ever prime minister, as President Emmanuel Macron seeks a fresh start for the rest of his term amid growing political pressure from the far right.Attal, 34, rose to prominence as the government spokesman and education minister and had polled as the most popular minister in the outgoing government. He is France’s first openly gay prime minister.His predecessor Elisabeth Borne resigned Monday following recent political turmoil over an immigration law that strengthens the government’s ability to deport foreigners.
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