week ending Sep 14

Core U.S. inflation picks up, damping odds of outsize Fed cut - Underlying U.S. inflation unexpectedly picked up in August on higher prices for housing and travel, undercutting the chances of an outsize Federal Reserve interest-rate cut next week. The so-called core consumer price index — which excludes food and energy costs — increased 0.3% from July, the most in four months, and 3.2% from a year ago, Bureau of Labor Statistics figures showed Wednesday. The three-month annualized rate advanced 2.1%, picking up from 1.6% in July, according to Bloomberg calculations. Economists see the core gauge as a better indicator of underlying inflation than the overall CPI. That measure climbed 0.2% from the prior month and 2.5% from a year ago in August, marking the fifth straight month the annual measure has eased and dragged down by cheaper gasoline prices. The BLS said shelter was "the main factor" in the overall advance. While Wednesday's reading won't deter the Fed from cutting interest rates next week, it reduces the chance of an outsize reduction. Even so, policymakers have made it clear that they're highly focused on softness in the labor market, which is more likely to drive policy discussions and decisions in the months ahead. They'll also have more data to consider leading up to their November and December meetings. Traders trimmed the probability that the Fed cuts rates by a half point next week to near zero. Treasury yields rose, the S&P 500 opened lower and the dollar pared its losses on the day. Though the figures are reported on a one decimal point basis by the BLS, Fed officials and economists often look further out for a better sense of the inflation trajectory. On a two-decimal basis, core CPI rose 0.28% from July. In addition to shelter, the advance was boosted by airfares, apparel as well as daycare and preschool. Car insurance costs continued to rise, as did hotel stays.

The Costless Disinflation of 2022-24 By Christopher J. Neely - St Louis Fed Global inflation rose in 2021 and continued to rise well into 2022. The FRED chart below illustrates this rise in inflation for the U.S., euro area, United Kingdom and Canada. In the U.S., for example, personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index inflation began rising in February 2021, peaking at a year-over-year level of 7.1% in June 2022, well above the Federal Open Market Committee's (FOMC) 2% target for that inflation metric.The FRED chart illustrates inflation rates for the U.S., euro area, U.K. and Canada from 1970 through early 2024. Analysts generally attributed such increases to factors related to economic consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic, including disruptions in global supply chains and labor markets, as well as fiscal and monetary policies designed to ameliorate the economic effects of pandemic-related job losses and business shutdowns.To reduce inflationary pressures in the U.S. and pursue its price stability mandate, the FOMC began tightening monetary policy-raising the federal funds rate target range-in March 2022. The Federal Reserve was not alone. Governments commonly direct their central banks to stabilize prices, so many central banks also raised short-term interest rates to reduce inflation.Reductions in trend inflation are called disinflations. These episodes have been fairly common, particularly in the 1970s and 1980s. The FRED chart above shows that inflation rose in the U.S., U.K. and Canada during the mid- and late-1970s before central banks in those countries began to reduce it again. Significant recessions-output losses and rising unemployment-accompanied these disinflations, however.In 2022, during the start of the disinflation, two sets of prominent economists publicly discussed these potential costs. Olivier Blanchard, Alex Domash and Lawrence Summers very reasonably noted that substantial unemployment has historically accompanied large disinflations and that the then-current disinflation was likely to follow this pattern.1 Andrew Figura and Fed Gov. Christopher Waller responded by suggesting that more sanguine effects on the labor market were possible, depending on the then-current properties of the labor market.2In fact, the U.S. economy did not experience large output losses or increases in unemployment during the 2022-24 disinflation, which began after inflation peaked in June 2022. This unusual behavior raises questions: What typically happens during a disinflation? How unusual was the U.S. experience in 2022-23-when the country saw the sharpest drops in monthly inflation-compared with historical patterns or other countries' experiences during their recent episodes?To answer these questions, I looked at monthly consumer price index (CPI) and unemployment data from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for 25 Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) countries from 1970 through early 2024.3 During this sample period, there were 105 episodes among these countries in which the underlying trend of inflation declined by at least 4 percentage points. Of these 105 episodes, 94 started prior to 2022 and 11 started in 2022 or later.4To meaningfully average data from countries with different levels of inflation, I subtracted the value of the inflation level at the start of the disinflation from each data series around an episode. This means that the normalized inflation rate for all 105 disinflations will be zero at the start of the disinflations.The following figure shows the cross-country average of inflation for the episodes beginning before 2022 (red line) and those that start on or after January 2022 (blue line), as well as for the U.S. experience in 2022-23. The fact that the blue line is below the red line in the figure shows that average inflation fell a bit faster and further in 2022-23 than in past disinflations, while U.S. inflation (black line) fell a bit more slowly than in past disinflations. NOTES: The figure illustrates the cross-sectional averages of CPI inflation for 94 disinflation episodes prior to 2022 and 11 episodes that start on or after January 2022. The episodes are defined as reductions in trend inflation for 25 OECD countries, from 1970 through early 2024. The vertical axis shows percentage point changes in inflation around the value at the start of the disinflation. The horizontal axis shows months around the start of the disinflation, which is month zero. For each episode, the inflation rates are normalized by subtracting the value of the inflation rate at the start of the disinflation. Therefore, all inflation rates will equal zero at the start of the disinflation by construction.The next figure shows cross-country average unemployment rates before and during the same two sets of disinflations. While in past disinflations (red line) average unemployment typically rose by nearly two percentage points over the 18 months following the start of the episode, the average did not rise at all during the most recent disinflation (blue line). This latter effect is peculiar, as there are many examples of central banks producing undesired recessions as collateral damage of disinflations.NOTES: The figure illustrates the cross-sectional averages of unemployment for 94 disinflation episodes prior to 2022 and 11 episodes that start on or after January 2022. The episodes are defined as reductions in trend inflation for 25 OECD countries, from 1970 through early 2024. The vertical axis shows percentage point changes in unemployment around the value at the start of the disinflation. The horizontal axis shows months around the start of the disinflation, which is month zero. For each episode, the unemployment rates are normalized by subtracting the value of the unemployment rate at the start of the disinflation. Therefore, all unemployment rates will equal zero at the start of the disinflation by construction.Determining why unemployment didn't increase during the 2022-23 disinflation would require much more research. It could be due to some combination of the source of the original inflationary shock, continuing fiscal stimulus during the disinflation, the credibility of OECD central banks in pursuing disinflation, and/or some other factor. In examining these figures, we should be careful to remember that they just show how variables tend to move during disinflations. We should be careful in using correlations to infer causal relationships. For example, people carry umbrellas on rainy days, but that doesn't mean umbrellas cause rain.

Government shutdown looms as Congress faces funding fight - Congress is staring down a time crunch to avert a shutdown, with both parties digging in their heels and some Republicans expressing skepticism about their own party’s plans less than a month before government funding is set to run out. Lawmakers return to Washington on Monday facing a Sept. 30 deadline to avert a government shutdown. And while the coming elections are thought to lessen the chances of a funding lapse, House Republicans are already preparing to square off against the Democratic-led Senate in what could be a messy, weeks-long debate over issues like voting requirements and spending. House GOP leadership Friday rolled out a plan that involves linking a six-month stopgap, also known as a continuing resolution (CR), with legislation backed by former President Trump and hard-line conservatives that calls for stricter proof-of-citizenship requirements to register to vote. Conservatives have been ramping up calls in recent months for a stopgap that extends past December, hoping that Trump returns to the Oval Office in January and aiming to avoid a massive end-of-year omnibus spending bill negotiated by leadership in both chambers. House Republicans are expected to move quickly on the proposal, but Johnson has already faced some skepticism about the strategy’s chances of success. Some in the party are warning not to make assumptions about how November’s elections will turn out. And one House Republican told The Hill last week that they worry about leaving a complicated appropriations process to a brand-new Congress. “You’re going to put brand-new members that just got elected on a really tough vote on an appropriations package when they don’t even understand the appropriations process,” the member said, noting Congress will also have to deal with the debt limit in January. And still others in the party questioned attaching the Safeguard American Voter Eligibility (SAVE) Act to a CR, noting that such a measure is all but certain to be rejected by the Democratic-controlled Senate. Meanwhile, two conservatives have already come out against the CR. Johnson can only afford to lose four Republican votes on any partisan bills. “If Schumer wanted, he could bring the SAVE Act up for a vote and pass it. But he won’t. He wants illegals to vote in American elections,” Rep. Matt Rosendale (R-Mont.) said in a post on the social platform X, referring to Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.). “We should be focusing on passing ALL 12 appropriations bills!” he added. Others, however, want to see GOP leaders plow forward with the push, particularly after the party struggled to pass more than a handful of its partisan funding bills before leaving for recess in late July amid internal divides over spending policy. “Republicans can sit around hand-wringing and do their usual claptrap, or they can get on board, unite and then figure out how we’re going to strategize through the next two months,” Rep. Chip Roy (R-Texas), lead sponsor of the SAVE Act, told The Hill in an interview ahead of the rollout. “But we got to figure out what we’re going to do about government funding, and we got to figure out what we’re going to do about picking a fight that differentiates us from Democrats.” Democrats have pushed back strongly on the partisan CR plan. “There is a clear, bipartisan path to responsibly fund the government, but instead Congressional Republicans are wasting time,” Shalanda Young, director of the White House’s Office of Management and Budget, said in a statement responding to the GOP-backed proposal. “Their 6-month CR approach ignores pressing needs that have real consequences for our defense, our veterans, and our communities. We urge Congress to quickly pass a bill to keep the government open and provide emergency funding for disaster needs across the country, as they have done on a bipartisan basis many times in the past.” The spending fight also comes as lawmakers on both sides have raised alarm over a roughly $3 billion budget shortfall facing the Department of Veterans Affairs (VA), another hurdle Congress must confront this month. The agency warned lawmakers earlier this summer that millions of veterans and survivors are at risk of seeing disruptions in benefit payments in October if Congress doesn’t act by Sept. 20 — little more than a week before the government shutdown deadline. The VA cited the PACT Act, a landmark law that passed with bipartisan support in 2022, as the key driver behind the budget shortfall, pointing to increases in enrollment in VA health care, appointments and applications benefits.

Republican opposition derails Johnson's plan to avert government shutdown --Speaker Mike Johnson’s (R-La.) opening bid to avert a government shutdown appears doomed to fail in the House this week amid widespread — and growing — Republican opposition, thwarting the top lawmaker’s hopes of the proposal squeezing Democrats in both chambers. At least six GOP lawmakers announced that they will vote against Johnson’s plan — which pairs a 6-month continuing resolution (CR) with a Trump-backed bill requiring proof of citizenship to vote — more than the number needed to tank the effort. If all Democrats vote no, Republicans can only afford to lose four of their members, assuming full attendance.The mounting Republican opposition is putting Johnson in a bind: caught between a restive right-flank pushing for the package that combines the lengthy CR with the Safeguard American Voter Eligibility (SAVE) Act, moderates concerned about the political implications of a shutdown threat so close to the election, and GOP defense hawks sounding the alarm about how the half-year stopgap would affect Pentagon funding.Johnson, however, is digging in his heels on the CR-plus-SAVE Act, vowing to plow ahead with the legislation despite the White House promising that President Biden would veto it and Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) planning to bring up an alternative “clean” stopgap.“There is no fallback position,” Johnson told reporters in the Capitol on Monday. “This is a righteous fight. This is what the American people demand and deserve.”Opposition, however, is threatening to derail his plans.The chorus of concerns that emerged publicly on Monday night was headlined by Rep. Mike Rogers (R-Ala.), the chairman of the House Armed Services Committee, who said he was opposed to the spending plan because of the impact it would have at the Department of Defense.“Six months are terrible for defense,” Rogers said. Asked if other members of the Armed Services panel would join him in opposition, he responded: “I hope so.”Republican Reps. Matt Rosendale (Mont.), Thomas Massie (Ky.), Cory Mills (Fla.), Tim Burchett (Tenn.) and Jim Banks (Ind.) have also publicly said that they will not support the CR-plus-SAVE Act, mounting pressure on Johnson in the government funding negotiations.“I’m not going to vote to extend bloated spending for six more months and grow the national debt, trillions of dollars more,” said Banks, who is running for Senate. “So it’s an easy no vote for me.”Some of those Republicans are warning that the opposition is likely to grow. Mills — who called deficit spending “the existential threat” to American democracy and suggested the SAVE Act portion of the package was “messaging at its finest” — said “quite a few” more Republicans are planning to vote no.Some of that opposition may come from moderate Republicans, who have expressed skepticism about the plan from the beginning. A source familiar with the matter told The Hill that a “handful” of moderates are withholding their votes on the package until they hear what Johnson’s plan B is.One moderate Republican — who characterized themself as “undecided” or a “lean no” — told The Hill “I’m not comfortable with the plan right now,” while also zeroing in on Johnson not detailing what the backup proposal would be.“It’s always good to know what the follow-on plans are,” the GOP lawmaker said. “There was an analogy that was made on one of these big calls that said ‘hey, when you go into combat you don’t plan for failure.’ But that’s actually not true. When you go into combat you actually do go into failure. You have contingency plans, you know, A through Z if you need to, to make sure that you’re successful.”“We have step one, which is put this thing up, and we know what step three is gonna end up being — clean CR or a government shutdown — so I don’t understand what that middle section looks like,” the lawmaker added. “That’s what I’m waiting to hear conveyed. I think we owe it to the voters to understand the dynamics here.”

House GOP government funding plan gets chilly reception from Senate Republicans - Senate Republicans gave the House GOP’s plan to fund the government a chilly reception on Monday, questioning whether it will slow progress toward finding a solution to avoid a government shutdown at the end of the month.They acknowledged the inclusion of a Trump-backed measure requiring proof of citizenship to register to vote could complicate the stopgap funding bill’s path, and many especially aren’t pleased with the continuing resolution’s (CR) six-month timeline.House Republicans are expected to move quickly on the bill, which would kick the current Sept. 30 funding deadline into March and includes the SAVE Act — legislation requiring proof of citizenship to be able to register to vote in federal elections. Conservatives, optimistic that former President Trump will return to the White House next year, argue the proposal will allow the next president more influence over how the government is funded through fall 2025.Conservative Republicans in the Senate are backing the gambit. But others in the GOP worry it comes dangerously close to risking a shutdown, and say that six months is simply too long.“There’s some argument for pushing this stuff into next year, but there’s also going to be folks [on the other side],” Sen. John Thune (S.D.), the No. 2 Senate Republican who is running to become leader next year. “It depends a little bit on what happens in November … and what [the incoming president] want to get done before the end of the year and what they want to push into next year.”“It’s fluid,” Thune continued. “My views will probably be informed and shaped a little bit by what the election results are and … what our colleagues think is the best course of action.”Sen. Susan Collins (Maine), the top Republican on the Senate Appropriations Committee, came out against a stopgap measure that goes “beyond December” in comments to The New York Times over the weekend. “We are going to have a new administration regardless, and they should be able to concentrate on the new budget year, not have to deal with issues involving the fiscal year that starts Oct. 1.”And Sen. Jerry Moran (R-Kansas), who serves on the Senate Appropriations Committee, said he didn’t have objections to the bill’s inclusion of the SAVE Act.But he said Monday he thinks “six months is long.”“I’m for the shortest time frame of the CR that still allows us time to get our work done and avoids an omnibus bill,” Moran said, referring to a massive, normally end-of-year, package that combines all 12-year funding bills.“That’s probably longer than just a few weeks, but I, you know, six months is a little long, so I’m looking for whatever it is that time frame that actually gives us the time to get the job done without more extensions, without more additional CRs, but especially with giving us the time to work out differences between House and Senate, and actually do appropriation bills.”Democratic leaders have roundly rejected the plan in the upper chamber. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) took a veiled shot at the inclusion of the SAVE Act in this week’s House bill, saying that “poison pills or Republican extremism” must be avoided in the spending push.“Democrats support a CR to keep the government open. As I have said before, the only way to get things done is in a bipartisan way. Despite Republican bluster, that is how we’ve handled every funding bill in the past, and this time should be no exception,” Schumer wrote in a letter to Senate Democrats on Sunday. “We will not let poison pills or Republican extremism put funding for critical programs at risk.”The White House also fired a warning shot on Monday morning, vowing to veto the bill in the unlikely event it makes it to the president’s desk, arguing it would place “agencies at insufficiently low levels — both for defense and non-defense — for a full six months.”It’s not clear at this point if the measure will pass the House. Speaker Mike Johnson’s (R-La.) decision to include the SAVE Act and stretch the CR to six months brought aboard a number of conservatives normally opposed to stopgaps, but Republican opposition Monday night appeared widespread — and growing.But there are already eyes on how some vulnerable House Democrats that previously crossed party lines to back the bill will respond to the stopgap pitch, particularly as Republicans have seized on issues like immigration and the border in the months leading up to the November elections.Many Senate Republicans on Monday backed the inclusion of the SAVE Act, but sounded a cautious note.The bill passed the House mostly along party lines earlier this year, as many Democrats have denounced the measure, noting it is already a crime for noncitizens to vote in federal elections and arguing the bill could make voter registration more difficult. Backers of the bill argue it ensures that only citizens can vote in federal elections, partly by making it mandatory for states to obtain proof of citizenship to register voters and also requiring states to purge noncitizens from voter rolls.

White House criticizes GOP's stopgap funding plan -- The White House on Monday issued a strong rebuke to a partisan proposal recently rolled out by GOP leadership to avert a government shutdown later this month, as both sides dig in their heels in a pre-election funding showdown. The White House argued the funding pitch unveiled Friday fell short of providing “necessary resources” for defense programs and veterans, while saying the GOP-backed bill would bring the government closer to “across-the-board cuts to programs Americans count on.” The Hill has reached out to Speaker Mike Johnson’s (R-La.) office for comment. Congress has until Sept. 30 to pass legislation to keep the government funded or risk a shutdown. House GOP leaders on Friday introduced their stopgap plan, also known as a continuing resolution (CR), to keep the government funded into March, while also tacking on language for stricter proof-of-citizenship requirements for voting. The strategy to pair the stopgap with the Safeguard American Voter Eligibility (SAVE) Act comes as Republicans have sought to seize on immigration and the border as key campaign issues heading into the November elections. Johnson said Friday that the proposal marks “a critically important step to keep the federal government funded and to secure our federal election process.” “Congress has a responsibility to do both, and we must ensure that only American citizens can decide American elections,” he added. The proposed stopgap also puts House Republicans on a collision course with Senate Democrats over timing. Conservatives, bullish about former President Trump’s chances of taking back the White House in November, have been pushing for a stopgap that runs past December, arguing the measure would allow Trump more influence over how the government is funded for much of 2025, if he’s elected. Democrats have instead pushed for a stopgap that keeps the government funded into sometime during the lame duck period between November and January, while pressing for lawmakers to finish their annual funding work by the year’s end. It’s an argument that even some Republican negotiators have expressed support for, while doubting the effectiveness of the strategy. Democrats also say the GOP-backed timeline is too close for comfort to an April deadline when lawmakers risk triggering an across-the-board trim to federal programs if they don’t finish their funding work in time. “A six-month CR would last until the end of March — only 30 days before the sequester deadline from the Fiscal Responsibility Act that would trigger across-the-board cuts if full-year bills are not passed,” the White House said Monday. “That short window next year would create a much higher risk that those cuts go into effect, resulting in devastating cuts to education and Head Start programs; our veterans, the military, and border agents; food assistance for mothers, babies, and low-income families; food and air safety; and more,” it added.

Johnson forges ahead on spending plan as GOP support crumbles - Speaker Mike Johnson is vowing to move forward on his spending plan, even as it appears to be on the verge of collapse. Johnson argued in a private Republican conference meeting Tuesday morning that GOP lawmakers should line up behind his pitch to link a six-month spending patch to a conservative-favored bill requiring proof of citizenship in order to register to vote, according to three Republicans with knowledge of the matter. And even as some Republicans privately doubt the bill’s ability to clear the House, Johnson said he is — at least right now — still planning to call a vote on the floor Wednesday. “That’s the plan,” the speaker told POLITICO upon leaving the House GOP’s weekly meeting. And he has refused to present another path, publicly or privately. After the meeting, he emphasized to reporters the powerful response he received when he traveled across the country fundraising for members last month: “I am resolved that we are not looking at any other alternative … and that’s why we’re going to stand up and fight for it.” His private sales pitch didn’t seem to have much of an effect. At least six Republicans are already publicly opposed to the stopgap plan, known as a continuing resolution or a CR, enough to sink it on the floor unless it gets some backing from Democrats. A handful of Democrats previously voted in favor of the proof-of-citizenship bill, known as the SAVE Act, but it’s unlikely that the minority party would want to swoop in and save a Republican plan on the House floor. So far, Democratic leaders have refrained from instructing their members how to vote. After the GOP meeting, more Republicans indicated on Tuesday that they are likely to oppose Johnson’s plan, raising the odds that a floor vote would mean a high-profile defeat just months before the election. And it carries personal risk for him, as he plans another speakership bid — he’d have to choose between an embarrassing cave to Democrats or flirting with a government shutdown on Oct. 1. “Based on what I heard in there, why am I going to put up a fake fight — I’m all in for a real fight,” Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) told reporters, adding that she was “very likely” a no on the spending plan. Rep. Nancy Mace (R-S.C.) added after the meeting: “I’m still reading through the text of it.” But, she added: “I’ve never voted for a CR.” In addition to Mace and Greene, more than a half dozen other House Republicans are also publicly on the fence about whether to support the spending patch. That means Johnson’s pool of opposition could easily grow before the scheduled Wednesday vote — though his allies are starting to express skepticism that the floor vote will happen.

GOP senators warn against House-driven government shutdown - Senate Republicans are letting the air out on House Republican efforts to pump up a partisan standoff over federal funding, which they fear could risk an embarrassing government shutdown a few weeks before Election Day. With the prospect of a Senate Republican majority in 2025 tantalizingly close, GOP senators don’t want to let a proposal backed by former President Trump to require proof of citizenship for voter registration derail an end-of-month funding deal. GOP senators acknowledge that Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) won’t accept any short-term funding bill that would place new restrictions on voter registration and warn that Republicans would get the blame for any government shutdown caused by a fight over it. Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) is trying to decide whether to bring a government funding measure combined with the Safeguard American Voter Eligibility (SAVE) Act, which would establish new voter registration rules, to the floor next week. He suffered a setback Wednesday when he was forced to cancel a vote on the package amid divisions within his own conference over the continuing resolution’s (CR) six-month time frame. But Republican senators are quietly rooting for House Republicans to drop the fight over voter registration and instead support a clean continuing resolution — without any policy riders — so Congress can wrap up its work and leave town without any drama in two weeks. “It’s probably a good time to get the government operating effectively and not have [a shutdown] occur right before an election,” Sen. Mitt Romney (R-Utah) said. Romney said the goal of the SAVE Act, to ensure only American citizens are registering to vote, is worth pursuing but suggested it would be more appropriate to push next year. He said enacting it next year or in early 2026 would “give time for election officials to go through the process of actually looking at people’s documentation.” “In the time frame we’re dealing with, it’s just not practical” before the November election, Romney said. The Utah senator warned Republicans “always” get blamed for government shutdowns. A Senate Republican aide said there’s no appetite among Republican senators to get into a standoff with Democrats over voter registration reform right before government funding is due to expire on Sept. 30. “No one wants to back ourselves into a corner where it’s either the SAVE Act or shut down the government. It’s 50 days before the election, we’re not stupid,” the aide said. But Trump is pouring fuel on the controversy by demanding that GOP lawmakers enact proof of citizenship requirements for voter registration or shut down Washington. “If Republicans in the House, and Senate, don’t get absolute assurances on Election Security, THEY SHOULD, IN NO WAY, SHAPE, OR FORM, GO FORWARD WITH A CONTINUING RESOLUTION ON THE BUDGET,” Trump thundered in a Truth Social post Tuesday. Trump has significantly more influence with House Republicans than he does with Senate Republicans, and his decision to interject himself in the debate has put the Speaker in a tough spot. Johnson wants to win another term as Speaker and he can’t afford to anger Trump or his MAGA allies on Capitol Hill by capitulating too easily on the SAVE Act. But he also doesn’t want to be seen as shutting down the government with his narrow House majority on the line.

Defense hawks oppose House GOP's six-month CR plan --House Speaker Mike Johnson’s (R-La.) Plan B for a stopgap federal spending bill is a no-go if it still includes a six-month time frame, according to GOP defense hawks. “If it goes past December 31, I’m not voting for it,” House Armed Services Committee Chair Mike Rogers (R-Ala.) told The Hill on Wednesday. House GOP leaders earlier Wednesday pulled their six-month stopgap funding plan hours ahead of a scheduled floor vote amid opposition from defense hawks, hard-line conservatives and moderates. Johnson appeared ready to press forward with a vote on his funding plan, which links a six-month continuing resolution (CR) with a bill backed by former President Trump that would require proof of citizenship to vote. But at least 12 Republicans made it known they would not vote for the legislation, including Rogers, sinking the bill’s chances. Johnson said they’ll delay the vote until next week as they work to “build consensus.” Now GOP defense hawks, who worry about the impact of not increasing funding for the Pentagon, say they want to see a shorter CR in the next iteration of Johnson’s plan. “I’m not putting any pressure on [Johnson]. I’ve just told him that I will agree to CR … but I won’t explore anything that goes past December 31,” Rogers said when asked about conversations on the Speaker’s Plan B. House Armed Services Committee Vice Chair Rob Wittman (R-Va.) said the longer the CR goes into the next year, “the more problematic it becomes” for U.S. defense. “The bottom line is we want to do what’s best for the nation’s defense,” he told The Hill. “We just want to make sure [Johnson] understands that … I want to make sure that we’re all part of getting something done.” He added on the CR: “Our effort is to just to make it as short as possible, because that minimizes the impact on defense.” Asked whether any CR that goes past three months would be a no-go for him, Wittman replied that he doesn’t have “any lines in the sand” and that its “a pretty dynamic situation.” And Rep. Ken Calvert (R-Calif.), who oversees the Pentagon’s budget, said Monday that while he was prepared to back Johnson, he didn’t like the six-month time frame as it “inhibits” the Defense Department. “It’s the largest enterprise in the world,” he said of the U.S. military. “You can’t run that under that [six-month] period of time.” The Pentagon has also vehemently opposed any long-term CR, with Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin over the weekend sending letters to top House and Senate appropriations leaders arguing such a bill would impose a “litany of difficulties” on the military. Austin said an extended version of the temporary measure would “set us significantly behind” in meeting the challenges from China and the ongoing wars in Europe and the Middle East. The letters are notable as the Pentagon typically has to endure a CR that lasts several months, given that lawmakers have failed to finalize the military appropriations bill all but one time since 2011 — in fiscal 2019. But in that same time frame, the Defense Department has not had stopgap funding that lasts longer than three months.

US government faces shutdown as Congress grapples with funding bill -- The US federal government is on the verge of a shutdown as Republicans in the House of Representatives struggle to agree on a funding bill. A new hurdle has emerged with former President Donald Trump pushing for voter ID requirements to be linked to the bill, further complicating negotiations ahead of a September 30 deadline.A senior US House Republican said on Thursday that his party needs to begin talks with Democrats on funding the government past a Sept. 30 deadline, as Speaker Mike Johnson plotted his next move after pulling a controversial stopgap funding bill.Representative Tom Cole, the Republican chair of the HouseAppropriations Committee, told reporters that he and others were "supportive of what he (Johnson) is trying to do," but pointed out that the deadline is rapidly approaching.Johnson on Wednesday canceled a vote on a bill that would have extended government funding at current levels into March 2025 and implemented a controversial provision requiring people to provide proof of citizenship to register to vote because of opposition within his own party.Republicans currently hold a 220-211 House majority, meaning they have repeatedly had to rely on Democrats to pass legislation.But Democrats opposed the funding bill due to the voting measure, which they said was unnecessary given that it is already illegal for noncitizens to vote in federal elections.Johnson is under added pressure from Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump, who has urged Republicans to shut down the government if they cannot pass the voting measure.But Trump's position is not popular among the moderates in his party, many of whom are about to face tough reelection fights in the Nov. 5 general election."We can't have a government shutdown five weeks before an election," Cole said."There are some things that do need to be negotiated, and the final deal is going to take Democratic votes," he said, pointing to Democratic control of the US Senate and the White House, both of which will need to agree to any final stopgap funding solution.Democratic House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries told reporters on Thursday that he had a "brief conversation" with Johnson the day before about finding "a path forward" on government funding but declined to share details of the discussion.

House Republicans point fingers after gambit to avoid shutdown collapses --The House GOP’s inability to coalesce around a strategy to address a looming government funding deadline is sparking a blame game among Republicans, after opposition from multiple factions helped thwart Speaker Mike Johnson’s (R-La.) strategy to avert a shutdown at the end of the month. Grappling with his razor-thin House majority, Johnson opted to try the spending plan proposed by hard-liners in the House Freedom Caucus: attach a conservative proposal, a bill to require proof of citizenship to vote, to a six-month extension of funding as an opening salvo to the Democratic-controlled Senate. Former President Trump has also called to condition government funding on the voting bill. The Speaker, though, was forced to pull a scheduled vote on that legislation this week. Now, Republicans frustrated with yet another legislative drama defined by GOP infighting are pointing fingers. “It’s disappointing that we cannot get the majority of our own members to vote for a bill that they all support, which is attached, and support appropriations bill that are lower than their Democratic counterparts and are at the level that the law dictates,” House Appropriations Committee Chair Tom Cole (R-Okla.) said. “I have no problem [with] what the Speaker is trying to do, I have a problem that members aren’t supporting what the Speaker is trying,” he added. Opposition to the bill came from far-flung corners of the conference. Some fiscal hawks — mostly from outside the Freedom Caucus — objected to any funding extension. Defense hawks, headlined by House Armed Services Committee Chair Mike Rogers (R-Ala.), were concerned about the impact the bill will have at the Pentagon. And moderates worried about a shutdown threat so close to the election. One House Republican, who requested anonymity to discuss the sensitive topic, slammed the hard-liners for derailing the Speaker’s negotiation tactic. “Once again, the hard-liners swing and miss. They get nothing, because they don’t actually know how to negotiate,” the GOP lawmaker said. “If they can’t pass a bill, you can’t actually get something you want.” But a senior GOP aide fired back at the those targeting the hard-liners. “Moderates are like Democrats, they always want to blame conservatives, but this time it’s defense hawks who decided to grow a spine 30 days before the election,” the aide said. And Cole — who said he understood where the defense hawks were coming from — also expressed disagreement with the opposition from that corner. “I do not disagree with Mike Rogers, one of my closest friends in Congress … I do not want a six-month CR [continuing resolution]. But I still think it’s better to pass something and take the threat of a government shutdown off the table than to do nothing,” Cole said. “I’ve never had a bill that I thought, boy, that’s a perfect bill. Not a consequential bill. But it’s all a game of give-and-take and we need to do that. Right now, the Speaker’s bargaining for all of us.” GOP lawmakers supportive of the funding gambit were hopeful that passing the conservative proposal would strengthen the conference’s leverage in forthcoming negotiations with Senate Democrats. That effort has turned some of the typical GOP politics upside down, changing some usually antagonistic hard-liners into key proponents of the effort. Rep. Chip Roy (R-Texas), the lead sponsor of the voter proof of citizenship bill — called the Safeguard American Voter Eligibility (SAVE) Act — and advocate for pairing it with a six-month funding extension, who has found himself at odds with leadership in the past, lamented the opposition from some of his “self-described conservative friends.” “They’re not actually giving the Speaker the ability to go do what we’re asking, generally, to go do. I find it ironic. But it is what it is,” Roy said. “I don’t think we ought to be funding government without forcing some changes in reforms. Right? That was the point here,” Roy later added. “Can we get this in the next year, avoid a lame-duck omnibus? Can we force a question on something as important as voting integrity and American citizen voting? Some of my colleagues want to run around squawking about 12 appropriations bills when we only have five passed, in part because of debates back and forth within the conference.” Other conservatives, however, have staked opposition to Johnson’s funding plan because of the lack of spending cuts and use of a continuing resolution, raising concerns about the ballooning deficit. “We’re drawing ourselves into a complete economic collapse that we can’t come back from,” Rep. Cory Mills (R-Fla.) told reporters while explaining his opposition.

Blinken Announces $700 Million in New Aid for Ukraine -On Wednesday, Secretary of State Antony Blinken was in Kyiv andannounced $700 million in fresh aid for Ukraine, including funds for repairing the country’s battered energy infrastructure.Blinken made the announcement alongside his British counterpart, David Lammy, who also pledged the UK would be providing $782 millionin humanitarian assistance and loan guarantees through the World Bank.According to the State Department, $325 million of the new US aid will go toward supporting “Ukraine’s energy infrastructure efforts in the midst of ongoing Russian attacks.” Russian strikes on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure recently escalated in response to the Ukrainian invasion of Russia’s Kursk Oblast.The State Department said $290 million will go toward “humanitarian assistance,” and $102 million will be spent on demining. The US has played a major role in leaving behind unexploded ordnances in Ukraine by providing the Ukrainian military with cluster bombs, which are banned by over 100 countries due to their indiscriminate nature.Last week, the Pentagon announced a new $250 million weapons package for Ukraine, which brought the total amount of military equipment the US has committed to Ukraine since the Russian invasion to $59.9 billion. Once the $61 billion President Biden authorized to spend on Ukraine in April, the US will have spent about $186 billion on the proxy war.

US Announces $250 Million Arms Package for Ukraine - The US on Friday announced a new $250 million weapons package for Ukraine that includes HIMARS ammunition, air defenses, Stinger missiles, artillery rounds, and other equipment.The weapons package is being provided through the Presidential Drawdown Authority, which allows President Biden to provide arms directly from US military stockpiles. The funds are being pulled from the $95 billion foreign military aid bill President Biden signed into law in April. The bill included $61 billion to fund the proxy war in Ukraine for another year.The new arms package comes as Russian forces are making steady gains in Ukraine’s eastern Donetsk Oblast and amid fighting in Russia’s Kursk Oblast, which has failed to distract Russia from its push in the Donbas. According to the Pentagon, the arms package includes:

• RIM-7 missiles and support for air defense
• Stinger missiles
• Ammunition for High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS)
• 155mm and 105mm artillery ammunition
• Tube-launched, Optically tracked, Wire-guided (TOW) missiles
• Javelin and AT-4 anti-armor systems
• Bradley Infantry Fighting Vehicles
• M113 Armored Personnel Carriers
• Mine Resistant Ambush Protected (MRAP) Vehicles
• Small arms ammunition and grenades
• Patrol boats
• Maritime training equipment
• Demolitions equipment and munitions
• Spare parts, ancillary equipment, services, training, and transportation

The Pentagon also released a fact sheet stating that the US has committed $59.9 billion in military equipment to Ukraine since the Russian invasion began in February 2022. Once the $61 billion from the April military aid bill is exhausted, total US spending on the proxy war, which includes other types of assistance and US deployments to Europe,will reach about $186 billion.

Victoria Nuland Admits US Discouraged Ukraine From Signing Peace Deal With Russia in 2022 -Former US State Department official Victoria Nuland has acknowledged that the US discouraged Ukraine from signing a peace deal with Russia during the early days of the Russian invasion.Nuland, who recently resigned from her post as Under Secretary of State for Political Affairs, made the comments in an interview that was published on YouTube on September 3.Mikhail Zygar, an exiled Russian journalist, asked Nuland about former Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennet’s claim that the US and its allies blocked his efforts at mediation and reports of former British Prime Minister Boris Johnson urging Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky not to sign a deal.Zygar also mentioned that David Arakhamia, a Ukrainian official who led negotiations with Russia at a meeting in Istanbul in March 2022,acknowledged last year that a deal was on the table at the time and that Russia’s main demand was for Ukrainian neutrality.Nuland claimed the US took a hands-off approach to the negotiations when they first started and said it wasn’t until “relatively late in the game” that the Ukrainians started seeking the advice of the US and its allies.“The Ukrainians began asking for advice on where this thing was going, and it became clear to us, clear to us and the Brits, clear to others, that Putin’s main condition was buried in an annex to this document that they were working on. And it included limits on the precise kinds of weapons systems that Ukraine could have after the deal,” Nuland said.She said the deal would make Ukraine “neutered” as a military force and said there were no similar constraints on the Russian military. “People inside Ukraine and people outside Ukraine started asking questions about whether this was a good deal, and it was at that point that it fell apart,” Nuland said.Boris Johnson traveled to Ukraine on April 9, 2022, and, according toUkrainska Pravda, told Zelensky that even if Ukraine was ready to sign a deal with Russia, the “collective West” was not. Arakhamia confirmed this account in November 2023, saying that when the negotiators returned from Istanbul, Johnson visited Ukraine and “said that we would not sign anything with them at all, and let’s just fight.”On April 20, 2022, around the time the talks broke down, then-Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu said Turkey thought a deal could be reached following the Istanbul talks, but then it got the impression that some NATO members wanted to prolong the war to weaken Russia.“After the talks in Istanbul, we did not think that the war would take this long … But, following the NATO foreign ministers’ meeting, it was the impression that… there are those within the NATO member states that want the war to continue, let the war continue and Russia gets weaker. They don’t care much about the situation in Ukraine,” Cavusoglu said.On April 25, 2022, after visiting Kyiv, Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin declared that one of the US’s goals in the war was to see a “weakened” Russia.

Austin Says Long-Range Strikes in Russia Wouldn't Be a Game Changer for Ukraine - On Friday, Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin pushed back on Ukraine’s requests to use US and other NATO-provided weapons to launch long-range strikes inside Russian territory.At a meeting of Ukraine’s backers at the Ramstein airbase in Germany, Austin was asked if the US would allow long-range strikes and said “no one capability” would be a game changer for Ukraine.“I don’t believe that one specific capability is going to be decisive,” he said. “Our approach to integrating things and to making sure that they have the right skill sets to employ those capabilities and those capabilities are linked to specific objectives.”Austin said Russia has moved back some of its military assets, so they’re out of range of Ukraine’s ATACMS, US-provided missiles with a range of about 190 miles. He noted that Ukraine has drones that can hit targets further inside Russia than the ATACMS and the British-provided Storm Shadow missiles, which can hit targets up to 155 miles away.“I think Ukraine has a pretty significant capability of its own to address targets that are well beyond the range of ATACMS or even Storm Shadow for that matter,” Austin said. “There are a lot of targets in Russia, a big country, obviously. And there’s a lot of capability that Ukraine has in terms of UAVs and other things to address those targets.”During the meeting of Ukraine’s Western backers, known as the Ukraine Defense Contact Group, Zelensky made another pitch for permission to carry out long-range strikes. “We need to have this long-range capability, not only on the divided territory of Ukraine, but also on the Russian territory, so that Russia is motivated to seek peace,” the Ukrainian leader said. “We need to make Russian cities and even Russian soldiers think about what they need: peace or Putin.”Russia has been strongly warning against the next potential escalation, which would be Ukraine using ATACMS and other longer-range NATO-provided missiles to hit areas in Russia beyond Kursk and other border regions.

Rep. McCaul Thinks Biden Will Allow Long-Range Ukrainian Strikes in Russia - Rep. Michael McCaul, the chair of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, believes the Biden administration will lift restrictions on Ukraine’s use of US missiles to allow long-range strikes inside Russian territory, which would mark another significant escalation of the proxy war.McCaul made the comments ahead of Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s next visit to Ukraine, which will take place on Wednesday. Blinken will be joined by his British counterpart, UK Foreign Secretary David Lammy.Ukraine has been using US missiles and other weapons in its invasion of Kursk and has been pushing for the use of longer-range capabilities, including Army Tactical Missile Systems (ATACMS), which have a range of about 190 miles and can be fired by the HIMARS rocket systems.“[Blinken’s] as supportive as I am, and he just said, ‘I have some good news. I’m going to Ukraine with my counterpart from the UK to talk about ATACMS. And what I’ve seen and what I’ve been briefed on, it looks like that’s the message they’re going to give them, that they can use them cross-border,” McCaul said, according to POLITICO.McCaul joined a group of other senior House Republicans in sending a letter to President Biden on Monday urging US support for long-range strikes. “It is far past time the administration reverses course and lifts the remaining restrictions on Ukraine’s use of US-provided weapons against legitimate military targets in Russia,” the letter reads.In an interview with Sky News on Tuesday, Blinken said that the administration was not ruling out supporting the long-range strikes. “We never rule out, but when we rule in, we want to make sure it’s done in such a way that it can advance what the Ukrainians are trying to achieve,” Blinken said.Moscow has warned strongly against the US allowing Ukraine to use NATO weapons to hit targets deep inside Russia and has said it’s working on changing its nuclear doctrine in response to Western escalations in Ukraine.

Blinken Signals US Will Allow Long-Range Strikes in Russia With NATO Missiles - On Wednesday, Secretary of State Antony Blinken strongly hinted that the US was preparing to lift restrictions on Ukraine’s use of US and NATO missiles to support long-range strikes inside Russian territory, which would mark a significant escalation of the proxy war.Speaking at a press conference in Kyiv alongside UK Foreign Secretary David Lammy, Blinken said he discussed the issue of “long-range fires” with Ukrainian President Volodomy Zelensky and said he would bring the discussion back to Washington. He said President Biden and British Prime Minister Keir Starmer will discuss the issue when they meet this Friday. Signaling the US is ready to support long-range strikes in Ukraine, Blinken said, “Speaking for the United States, from day one, as you’ve heard me say, we have adjusted and adapted as needs have changed, as the battlefield has changed, and I have no doubt that we’ll continue to do that. The Guardian reported that British government sources indicated there’s already been a decision made in private to allow Ukraine to use British-provided missiles inside Ukraine, which have a range of about 155 miles. The sources said Biden and Starmer are not expected to announce the decision on Friday, and it’s unclear when it might be made public.Later on Wednesday, POLITICO reported that the White House is finalizing plans to expand the area where Ukraine can hit inside Russia using US and British-provided missiles.Ahead of Blinken’s visit, Rep. Michael McCaul (R-TX), the hawkish chair of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, said that he believed the Biden administration was ready to loosen restrictions on Ukraine’s use of US missiles to allow Army Tactical Missiles Systems (ATACMS) to be used in strikes inside Russia. ATACMS have a range of about 190 miles.Blinken’s visit to Ukraine comes Russian forces are beginning to push back Ukrainian troops in Russia’s Kursk Oblast. Fighting has been raging in the Russian region since August 6, when Ukrainian forces invaded using US armored vehicles and British tanks. The offensive has failed to distract Moscow from eastern Ukraine’s Donbas region, where Russian forces have continued to make gains. (Military situation in Kursk on September 11, 2024)The Ukrainian invasion of Kursk came a few months after President Biden gave Ukraine the greenlight to use US weapons in attacks on Russian border regions. Russia has strongly warned the US against allowing US weapons to be used in strikes deep inside Russian territory, but the Biden administration doesn’t appear to be concerned about the risk of escalation.

Putin threatens NATO amid reports of long-range weapons being allowed to strike inside Russia -- Russian President Vladimir Putin claimed that NATO is escalating a direct war with Russia as the U.S. and Britain discuss allowing NATO-provided weapons to be used by Ukraine to strike targets inside Russia.“This would in a significant way change the very nature of the conflict,” Putin said on Thursday. “It would mean that NATO countries, the US, European countries, are at war with Russia.” Putin’s warning comes amid multiple recent reports that the U.S. is close to clearing the way for Western weapons to be utilized to hit deep inside Russia. The New York Times reported thatPresident Biden is close to allowing Ukraine to use long-range missiles. Britain’s Prime Minister Keir Starmer is willing to give Ukraine permission to use “Storm Shadow” long-range missiles, but wants U.S. approval first, the Times reported. “If that’s the case, then taking into account the change of nature of the conflict, we will take the appropriate decisions based on the threats that we will face,” Putin said to a state television reporter. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said on Thursday during his Warsaw visit that the U.S. “will do exactly what we have already done, which is we will adjust, we’ll adapt as necessary, including with regard to the means that are at Ukraine’s disposal to effectively defend against the Russian aggression.” On Wednesday, Blinken announced over $700 million in humanitarian aid for the war-torn country. Blinken met with both Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky and U.K. Foreign Minister David Lammy. Starmer is set to meet with Biden in Washington on Friday. The debate comes after Ukraine launched an incursion into Russia in early August, capturing miles of territory and grabbing some settlements. The attack caught Russia unprepared. Zelensky later said that the Russian army was hitting back and Moscow had vowed to clear Ukraine from the area.

Putin: Supporting Long-Range Strikes on Russian Territory Would Put NATO 'at War With Russia' - Russian President Vladimir Putin on Thursday strongly warned the US against allowing Ukraine to use NATO missiles in long-range strikes inside Russian territory, saying the move would put the Western military alliance “at war with Russia.”Putin’s comments came after POLITICO reported that the White House was finalizing plans to expand the areas inside Russia where Ukraine can use US and British-provided missiles.“This would in a significant way change the very nature of the conflict,” Putin told a TV reporter, according to AFP. “It would mean that NATO countries, the US, European countries, are at war with Russia. If that’s the case, then taking into account the change of nature of the conflict, we will take the appropriate decisions based on the threats that we will face.”He added that supporting long-range Ukrainian strikes inside Russian territory is “a decision on whether NATO countries are directly involved in the military conflict or not.”A day earlier, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and UK Foreign Secretary David Lammy met with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in Kyiv and discussed the issue of long-range strikes. At a press conference in Kyiv, Blinken said they would take the conversation back to their “bosses” and strongly hinted the US was preparing to take the escalatory step.“Speaking for the United States, from day one, as you’ve heard me say, we have adjusted and adapted as needs have changed, as the battlefield has changed, and I have no doubt that we’ll continue to do that,” Blinken said.The Guardian reported that a decision has already been made in private to allow Ukraine to use British-provided Storm Shadow missiles, which have a range of about 155 miles. The report said the decision is not expected to be made public in the near future, not even after President Biden meets with British Prime Minister Keir Starmer this Friday. Earlier this year, a German military leak revealed that British soldiers are “on the ground” in Ukraine helping fire Storm Shadows, which means if they’re used to launch long-range strikes inside Russia, it would be with direct support from the British military.

Russia Says It Could 'Combine' With China If Both Face Threat From the US - Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said Wednesday that Russia’s partnership with China is not aimed at any third country, but the two countries could “combine” to respond to threats from the US. “I would like to remind you that Moscow and Beijing will respond to ‘double containment’ by the United States with ‘double counteraction,'” Zakharova said when asked about US plans to deploy a Typhon missile system to Japan for several months, according to Reuters.The Typhon is a new missile system developed by the US that would have been banned under the Intermediate Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty, a treaty between the US and Russia that the Trump administration tore up in 2019. The INF prohibited land-based missile systems with a range between 310 and 3,400 miles.The Typhon can fire nuclear-capable Tomahawk missiles, which have a range of over 1,000 miles. The US recently deployed a Typhon system to the Philippines and is planning on sending missile systems to Germany by 2026, which Russia views as a major threat.“It is clear that both Russia and China will react to the emergence of additional and very significant missile threats, and their reaction will be far from being political, which has also been repeatedly confirmed by the two countries,” Zakharova said.Zakharova’s comments come amid large-scale Russian naval drills that the Russian military said involve over 90,000 personnel, 400 warships and submarines, and 120 aircraft. China is participating in the Pacific portion of the drill with three Chinese ships and 15 planes.Russia and China have increased their military cooperation in recent years directly in response to he similar pressure the two countries have been facing from the US and its allies. Zakharova insisted the relationship is defensive in nature.“Our relations are not directed against third countries… and double counteraction does not contradict this. This is a defensive position, this is not an initiative to target other countries,” she told Reuters. “But if an aggressive policy of attack is being implemented against us from one center, why don’t we combine our potential and give an appropriate rebuff?”

Ukraine reinforces US Abrams tanks with steel cages -- The American-made M1 Abrams is considered one of the world’s premier tanks, yet has still proven vulnerable to Russian drones and explosives on the battlefield in Ukraine, which had sidelined the armored behemoth. But Ukraine has now improved the Abrams, better protecting it through a relatively simple method: steel cages wrapped around the frame. Ukrainian officials behind the effort tell The Hill that the retrofit has worked extraordinarily well at protecting not just the Abrams but also other U.S. armored fighting vehicles like Bradleys. For the $10 million apiece Abrams, the relatively crude fix has helped keep the tanks on the battlefield. Ukraine’s 47th Separate Mechanized Brigade, an elite unit that has been fighting on the frontlines, said in a statement to The Hill that “protective screens for combat vehicles such as Abrams and Bradleys are essential to preserve not only expensive equipment, but also the lives of soldiers on the battlefield. “ “Although the Abrams is considered one of the best tanks, it is not invulnerable to threats such as anti-tank missiles and drones,” they said. “The development of additional protective structures is an important step to reduce the risk of damage from modern threats, including drones and explosives.” Olexander Myronenko is the chief operating officer of Metinvest, one of the businesses supporting the Steel Front initiative, the project behind the steel cages that was started by the Ukrainian billionaire Rinat Akhmetov to provide equipment for the military. Myronenko told The Hill that the screens can take one strike before they need to be replaced, but they are very effective at protecting the tanks by absorbing the hit and increase survivability by around 35 percent. “The drones usually [try to] stop the machine, to stop the armored vehicle, so they try to hit the engine [or] the turret of the tank to block it,” he said. “And when the tank is blocked or stopped on the battlefield it’s just like a sitting duck for the artillery or another type of drone. “That’s why this protection is necessary, to not allow the drone to do such damage,” Myrononeko added.

CIA, MI6 Praise Ukraine's Kursk Invasion for Bringing War to 'Ordinary Russians' - CIA Director William Burns and Richard Moore, the head of the UK’s MI6 foreign intelligence agency, spoke at an unprecedented joint public event in London on Saturday, where they praised Ukraine’s invasion of Russia’s Kursk Oblast.Moore said the Kursk invasion was “typically audacious and bold on the part of the Ukrainians, to try and change the game” and said it had “brought the war home to ordinary Russians.”Burns said the operation in Kursk was a “significant tactical achievement” that boosted morale in Ukraine. While the fighting continues in Kursk, Russian forces have been making more rapid gains in Ukraine’s Donbas region since the invasion was launched. The US and its allies claim they weren’t involved in the planning of the Kursk invasion, but a Ukrainian soldier said Western intelligence was crucial for the attack. Ukrainian forces have been using US and British weapons in the assault, marking a significant escalation of the proxy war. Burns downplayed concerns about potential Russian escalations in response to the Western support for Ukraine. “I think there was a moment in the fall of 2022 when there was a genuine risk of the potential use of tactical nuclear weapons. I have never thought, however, and this is the view of my agency, that we should be unnecessarily intimidated by that. Putin’s a bully and he is going to continue to saber-rattle from time to time,” Burns said.

Israel kills humanitarian workers, children and displaced people in spree of war crimes - An Israeli attack on al-Jaouni school in Nuseirat, Gaza, on Wednesday killed 18 people, including 6 workers for the United Nations Palestinian relief agency UNRWA. More were injured, including children. A statement by the agency detailed the flagrant criminality of the Israel Defense Forces:Six UNRWA colleagues killed today when two airstrikes hit a school and its surroundings in Nuseirat in the middle areas. This is the highest death toll among our staff in a single incident. Among those killed was the manager of the UNRWA shelter and other team members providing assistance to displaced people…This school has been hit five times since the war began. It is home to around 12,000 displaced people, mainly women and children. No one is safe in Gaza No one is spared.Head of UNRWA Philippe Lazzarini explained, “Humanitarian staff, premises and operations have been blatantly and unabatedly disregarded since the beginning of the war.” UN Secretary-General António Guterres demanded a stop to “these dramatic violations of international humanitarian law.”Various imperialist officials let out some crocodile tears. UK Foreign Secretary David Lammy posted, “Reports of six UNRWA staff members being killed in an Israeli strike are appalling. My thoughts are with their families and all those who continue to carry out lifesaving work. Aid workers must be able to do their jobs safely.”Lammy had recently excluded parts for F-35 fighter jets responsible for such strikes from a pitifully small set of restrictions on British arms sales to Israel.The most openly filthy response came from US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken, who told reporters, “We need to see humanitarian sites protected, and that’s something that we continue to raise with Israel,” but added in justification of Israel’s war crime, “We continue to see Hamas hiding in, taking over, and otherwise using these sites from which to conduct its operations.”His comment echoed the lying claim made by the IDF that al-Jaouni had been “formerly used” as a school but turned into “a Hamas command and control complex” with “many of the names [of the victims of the attack] published on social media and news channels belong[ing] to Hamas terrorists.”The barely disguised reality is that Israel considers humanitarian workers “terrorists” and enemy combatants, working against its war aims of the extermination and expulsion of the Palestinian people. It made this clear in January with its unsubstantiated claims of extensive Hamas involvement in UNRWA. Israel’s imperialist powers gave the green light by immediately suspending funding, still not resumed by the United States—formerly by far its largest funder.At least 220 UNRWA staff have been killed since Israel launched its genocidal war, among around 300 humanitarian workers in total. More than 70 percent of the agency’s schools have been bombed, often multiple times—nearly all of which were being used as humanitarian shelters. In just the last six weeks, 16 schools have been hit.This is part of a deliberate plan to kill millions of people by starvation and disease. Sam Rose, a senior deputy director of UNRWA told the press Thursday, “We estimate that over a million Gazans will go without food in September. Over half the medicines in our health centres are running low, as is chlorine for water purification and other basic supplies.”Amed Khan, founder of the Elpida relief organisation, pointed to UN data showing how the number of aid trucks entering Gaza had fallen from 100 a day in July (a fraction of the 5-600 the UN says is needed) to around 50 in August. Just 147 trucks have entered in the whole of September. All aid groups cite restrictions and “inspections” imposed by the Israeli military as the reason.Effectively salting the earth, the IDF has meanwhile “decimated” Gaza’s agricultural assets—96 percent of farms, orchards, irrigation systems, machinery and storage facilities—according to the UN Trade and Development agency.

US citizen killed in the West Bank by Israeli forces --Aysenur Ezgi Eygi, a 26-year-old Turkish-American political activist, was shot and killed by Israeli forces during a protest in the West Bank on Friday. According to medical personnel, Eygi was shot in the head and died shortly after she was rushed to a hospital in Nablus. A report by the BBC said, “Dr Fouad Nafaa, head of Rafidia Hospital where Ms Eygi was admitted, confirmed that a US citizen in her mid-20s died from a ‘gunshot in the head.’” A fellow protester told the BBC that the demonstration on Friday was the first time the young woman attended a protest with the International Solidarity Movement (ISM), a pro-Palestinian group. The organization of foreign solidarity activists have been involved in work to protect Palestinian farmers in the West Bank from attacks by Zionist settlers. At 2:43 p.m., the Anadolu news agency reported via X, “Palestinian authorities informed Türkiye that Turkish-American activist Aysenur Ezgi Eygi might have been killed deliberately by snipers.” The Washington Post reported that Eygi was attending a protest opposing a Jewish settlement expansion in the town of Beita in the Nablus Governate when she was shot. The Post report said, according to eyewitnesses, that when the ISM protesters arrived in Beita on Friday, Israeli soldiers were already deployed around a site where people were set to perform Friday prayers. As soon as the prayers were over, the soldiers fired tear gas and live ammunition. The US State Department acknowledged Eygi’s death. Department spokesman Matthew Miller said Washington is, “urgently gathering more information about the circumstances of her death and will have more to say as we learn more.” The White House did not assign blame for the killing and called on Israel to investigate. National Security Council spokesperson Sean Savett said the US is, “deeply disturbed by the tragic death” in the West Bank. On a trip to the Caribbean, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken deplored the “tragic loss,” and said the government is “intensely focused on getting those facts.” Copies of Eygi’s passport that have been circulated online said she was born in Turkey and the Turkish Foreign Ministry confirmed she was a Turkish citizen. Turkey’s foreign ministry said Eygi was “killed by Israeli occupation soldiers in the city of Nablus” and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan called the action “barbaric.” Jonathan Pollak, an Israeli activist with ISM who was at the protest with Ms Eygi, said he heard “two separate shots of live ammunition, shot one after the other... and then I heard another shot.” Speaking to AFP news agency, Pollak said, “I found her lying on the ground, beside the tree, bleeding from her head. I took her pulse, she had a very weak pulse, we called the ambulance. From there we evacuated her to the village’s medical centre, where the doctor came into the ambulance and continued into the hospital, where they tried to resuscitate her but failed.”The Washington Post reported, “The soldiers took over a rooftop in the town, he said, calling it ‘a controlling rooftop.’ Eygi was in an olive grove, according to Pollak and another ISM volunteer who spoke on the condition she be identified only by her first name, Mariam, for fear of retribution.” Speaking to Al Jazeera, the same eyewitness said, “The army was on top of the hill and a sniper was on top of the roof. We were clearly visible to the army and there was nothing happening next to us … They just shot two live ammunitions. One hit something metal and one was directed to [Eygi’s] head.”

UN, Dems up pressure for Israeli investigation after US citizen killed in West Bank - --Democrats in Congress joined the United Nations to condemn the killing of a U.S. citizen in the West Bank on Friday and called for Israeli accountability as tensions continue to mount over settlement expansions that have increased since Oct. 7.According to eyewitness accounts, 26-year-old Aysenur Ezgi Eygi was shot in the head by Israeli soldiers during a protest against West Bank settlement expansion on Friday. The witnesses said violence had flared during a weekly anti-settlement demonstration as some protesters threw rocks at Israeli forces and were met with fire. But one attendee told the Associated Press that the situation had already de-escalated when Eygi was shot and that she did not pose a threat to Israeli forces. In a statement released Saturday, the Israel Defense Forces wrote that they had “responded with fire toward a main instigator of violent activity” in the area and that a “foreign national” had been killed as a result. They added that the “details of the incident and the circumstances in which she was hit are under review.” Eygi, a Seattle resident who also holds Turkish citizenship, had recently graduated from the University of Washington and was volunteering with the activist group International Solidarity Movement. Some who mourned Eygi’s death on social media drew parallels to another U.S. citizen, Rachel Corrie, who was also associated with the International Solidarity Movement and who was killed by Israeli forces in 2003 while protesting the demolition of Palestinian homes in the Gaza Strip. An Israeli court ruled in 2012 that the military was not at fault in Corrie’s death. In a statement, Eygi’s family said their daughter had been “peacefully standing for justice” and called on the Biden administration to order an “independent investigation” into her death and “ensure full accountability for the guilty parties.” National Security Council spokesperson Sean Savett said in a statement Friday that the U.S. is “deeply disturbed” by Eygi’s death and that the White House had requested an investigation from the Israeli government.United Nations spokesperson Stéphane Dujarric told reporters on Friday that the organization also wants to see “a full investigation of the circumstances and that people should be held accountable,” emphasizing that “civilians must be protected at all times.”High-ranking Democrats soon joined calls for a probe into Eygi’s killing.Rep. Adam Smith (D-Wash.), ranking member of the House Armed Services Committee, extended his condolences to Eygi’s family in a statement Saturday, calling for the Israeli government to “deliver answers quickly and thoroughly.” Smith also condemned the expansion of Israeli settlements in the West Bank as “illegal, destabilizing,” and in violation of the rights of Palestinians in the West Bank.

Israel Claims Its Forces 'Unintentionally' Shot American Activist in the Head - The Israeli military on Tuesday said that it was “highly likely” one of its soldiers shot and killed an American activist in the Israeli-occupied West Bank but claimed it was “indirect and unintentional” despite it being a headshot, a claim backed by President Biden. Aysenur Eyzi Eygi, 26, was killed on September 6 while protesting illegal Israeli settlements in the West Bank village of Beita. Her family responded to the Israeli military’s statement, calling it “wholly inadequate.”The family said in a statement that they were “deeply offended by the suggestion that her killing by a trained sniper was in any way unintentional. The disregard for human life in this inquiry is appalling.”Later in the day, President Biden backed the Israeli claim. “Apparently, it was an accident — it ricocheted off the ground, and she got hit by accident. I’m working that out now,” he told reporters.The statement from Eygi’s family added that the shooting “cannot be misconstrued as anything except a deliberate, targeted, and precise attack by the military against an unarmed civilian.”The Israeli military claimed that the shot that killed Eygi was not aimed at her but the “key instigator” of a riot. However, the International Solidarity Movement (ISM), which organized the protest, said it was peaceful, and eyewitnesses said the protesters posed no threat t Israeli troops.Eygi’s family reiterated a call for President Biden, Vice President Harris, and Secretary of State Antony Blinken to order an independent investigation into the killing instead of letting Israel investigate itself. The State Department said Monday that it wasn’t conducting its own investigation of the incident.At a press conference in London on Tuesday, Blinken said that “no one should be shot and killed for attending a protest.” He added that Israeli security forces “need to make some fundamental changes to the way they operate in the West Bank, including changes to their rules of engagement.”

Partner of activist killed in West Bank pushes back on Biden calling it ‘an accident’ - The partner of an American activist killed by Israeli forces in the West Bank last week pushed back on President Biden calling the shooting “an accident” in remarks to reporters Tuesday. Hamid Ali, the partner of Ayşenur Ezgi Eygi, said in a statement that they had not heard from Biden or his White House in the days since the incident.“An activist and volunteer, Ayşenur was peacefully standing for justice as an international observer and witness to Palestinian suffering,” Ali said in a statement. “She was fatally shot in the head by a bullet that came from an Israeli sniper positioned 200 meters away. This was no accident, and her killers must be held accountable.”Biden told reporters as he departed the White House on Tuesday that he was finding out more details, but “apparently it was an accident, ricocheted off the ground and got hit by accident. I’m working that out now.”Israel said earlier Tuesday it was launching an investigation into the killing of Eygi, a 26-year-old from Seattle who was participating in a demonstration in the West Bank when she was shot and killed.The Associated Press reported that the doctors who treated Eygi, who also had Turkish citizenship, said she was shot in the head. Secretary of State Antony Blinken condemned the shooting in remarks to reporters during a trip to London.“We’ve seen reports of excessive force by Israeli security forces against Palestinians. And now we have the second American citizen killed at the hands of Israeli security forces,” Blinken said. “It’s not acceptable. It has to change. And we’ll be making that clear to the senior-most members of the Israeli government.”Biden has faced intense criticism from some Democrats over his handling of Israel’s war with Hamas, which has left tens of thousands of Palestinians in Gaza dead. The war started after attacks on Oct. 7 by Hamas killed more than 1,000 Israelis.

State Department Approves $165 Million in Tank Trailers for Israel -On Thursday, the US State Department approved a potential arms deal for Israel for tank trailers that’s worth about $165 million in the latest US show of support for the Israeli military amid the genocidal war in Gaza.“The State Department has made a determination approving a possible Foreign Military Sale to the Government of Israel of Heavy Duty Tank Trailers and related equipment for an estimated cost of $164.6 million,” the Pentagon’s Defense Security Cooperation Agency (DSCA) said.The approval is the first step in the arms deal and begins a period when Congress could block the sale, but it won’t face any roadblocks since there’s a strong bipartisan consensus for arming Israel. The DSCA said the deliveries of the trailers are expected to begin in 2027.The sale will likely be paid for using Foreign Military Financing (FMF), a form of US military aid that provides funds to foreign governments to purchase US arms. Israel is the only country that’s also allowed to use a portion of its FMF aid to purchase domestically manufactured weapons.Israel receives $3.8 billion in military aid from the US each year, which includes $3.3 billion in FMF. In April, President Biden signed a bill into law authorizing another $17 billion in military aid for Israel. In August, the State Department approved a series of weapons deals for Israelworth $20 billion, including an $18.8 billion deal for a new fleet of F-15 fighter jets. US military aid is required for Israel to sustain its operations in Gaza, which kills dozens of Palestinians every day, and it supports escalations in the West Bank, Lebanon, and Syria.

CENTCOM Chief Visits Israel To Discuss Iran and Lebanon - Gen. Michael Erik Kurilla, the head of US Central Command (CENTCOM),is visiting Israel as the US and Israeli militaries are still coordinating on the potential for an Iranian reprisal attack in response to the Israeli killing of Hamas’s political chief, Ismail Haniyeh, in Tehran.The Israeli military said Monday that Kurilla met with Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) Chief of Staff Gen. Herzi Halevi. “The general’s visit focuses on current threats, with an emphasis on threats from Lebanon and Iran in the northern arena,” the IDF wrote on X.Kurilla also visited northern Israel and met with the head of the IDF’s Northern Command, Maj. Gen. Ori Gordin. The IDF said that during the meeting, Kurilla was presented with Israel’s “operational plans for Lebanon.”Israel and Hezbollah exchanged a heavy round of fire on August 25, which Hezbollah said was its response to the Israeli killing of one of its top military commanders in an airstrike in Beirut on July 30. Since then, the two sides have continued to trade fire, but there have been no moves toward a full-blown war.The US has given Israel strong backing in its fight against Hezbollah and has deployed additional warships and warplanes to the region for the purpose of defending Israel if the situation escalates or if Iran launches an attack on Israel. The US has also stepped up weapons shipments to Israel in the wake of the Haniyeh assassination, which occurred on July 31.Israel’s Channel 13 reported on Friday that the US told Israel the additional naval assets in the Middle East cannot stay there “forever” and would need to be brought home eventually.

Two Girls Reported Killed in US Strike Near School in Yemen - Yemeni media reported Tuesday that a joint US-British airstrike struck near a school in a Houthi-controlled area of Yemen’s Taiz province,killing two female students and wounding nine more.So far, the US military has not claimed any strikes in Yemen on Tuesday. A day earlier, US Central Command said it struck Yemen and claimed it destroyed two Houthi “missile systems and one support vehicle.”The US has kept up a heavy bombing campaign in Yemen since January, which has only escalated the situation in the Red Sea. Yemeni media typically reports all the US attacks as joint US-British strikes since the UK has joined several of the bombings, but the majority of the strikes have been launched unilaterally by the US.The Houthis, officially known as Ansar Allah, strongly condemned the strike in Taiz. “Targeting civilians and educational facilities is a dangerous escalation that reflects the American and British frustration due to their failure to protect Israeli navigation in the Red Sea,” said Houthi official Mohammed Abdul Salam.Al Mayadeen, a Lebanese outlet with reporters in Yemen, said one of its correspondents confirmed the strike killed two girls. The report said the school was hit by two missiles.

Biden Overrides Conditions on Military Aid To Egypt, Granting the Full $1.3 Billion - The Biden administration is overriding human rights conditions placed on military aid to Egypt to provide the country with the full $1.3 billion of annual military aid Cairo usually receives each year.Out of the $1.3 billion, $320 million is subject to conditions under legislation passed by Congress, and President Biden has withheld a small portion of it each year he’s been in office until now. Last year, the administration withheld $85 million.The main concern regarding human rights in Egypt is over President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi’s treatment of political opponents, which has involved imprisonment and torture. The administration said the decision to override the human rights conditions was related to Egypt’s involvement in mediating ceasefire talks between Israel and Hamas.“This decision is important to advancing regional peace and Egypt’s specific and ongoing contributions to US national security priorities, particularly to finalize a ceasefire agreement for Gaza, bring the hostages home, surge humanitarian assistance for Palestinians in need, and help bring an enduring end to the Israel-Hamas conflict,” a State Department spokesperson told Reuters.The US gives military aid to Egypt through Foreign Military Financing, a State Department program that gives foreign governments money to purchase US-made arms. Egypt is one of the top recipients of US military aid, an arrangement that began after Cairo signed a peace treaty with Israel in 1979.

US Says Diplomatic Facility in Iraq Came Under Attack, No Casualties Reported - The US Embassy in Iraq said Wednesday that a rocket attack near the Baghdad airport that occurred Tuesday night targeted a US diplomatic facility.“At approximately 23:00 on Tuesday, September 10, there was an attack at the Baghdad Diplomatic Services Compound, a US diplomatic facility,” the US Embassy said. “Fortunately, there are no reported casualties, and we are assessing the damage and its cause. Our assessment is ongoing.”Iraqi security sources previously told Reuters that two rockets fell around 11 pm local time on Tuesday near US troops stationed at Camp Victory, a base in the area surrounding the Baghdad airport.So far, no one has taken credit for the attack. Kataib Hezbollah, an Iraqi Shia militia that’s been involved in previous operations against the US, condemned the attack, saying it was meant to disrupt a visit by Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, who arrived in Iraq on Wednesday.Kataib Hezbollah called for an investigation to find out who was responsible. An Iraqi source told AFP that the attack was carried out with two Katyusha rockets.“One fell on the wall of the Iraqi anti-terrorist forces compound. The second was inside the base hosting the international anti-jihadist coalition led by Washington,” the source said.The attack occurred a few hours before the first presidential debate between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump. During the debate, Harris falsely claimed that no US troops are currently deployed in combat zones, but several American soldiers have been wounded in recent attacks and raids in Iraq.

Harris Lies in Debate With Trump by Claiming No US Troops Are Deployed in Combat Zones - During Tuesday night’s presidential debate, Vice President Kamala Harris falsely claimed that no US troops are currently deployed in combat zones as she traded barbs with former President Donald Trump about foreign policy issues.“As of today, there is not one member of the United States military who is in active duty in a combat zone in any war zone around the world, the first time this century,” Harris said.US troops are deployed in Iraq and Syria under the anti-ISIS coalition and actively participate in combat operations. Less than two weeks ago,seven US troops were wounded in a raid against a suspected ISIS hideout in Iraq.US troops have also been injured in recent weeks by drone and rocket attacks on US bases in Iraq and Syria, which significantly ramped up last year in response to US support for Israel’s onslaught in Gaza. Back in January, three US Army Reserve soldiers from Georgia were killed by a drone attack on Tower 22, a secretive US base in Jordan on the Syrian border.Harris made the false claim while discussing the US withdrawal from Afghanistan. She said that she agreed with President Biden’s decision to pull out but also criticized Trump for negotiating the deal that led to the withdrawal. “He bypassed the Afghan government. He negotiated directly with a terrorist organization called the Taliban,” she said.Trump defended the deal, calling it a “very good agreement” and criticized the way the Biden administration carried out the withdrawal. “These people did the worst withdrawal and in my opinion the most embarrassing moment in the history of our country,” he said.When the genocidal war in Gaza was brought up, Trump claimed Harris “hates” Israel and that the country wouldn’t exist if she were elected. “She hates Israel. If she’s president, I believe that Israel will not exist within two years from now. And I’ve been pretty good at predictions. And I hope I’m wrong about that one. She hates Israel. At the same time in her own way she hates the Arab population because the whole place is going to get blown up, Arabs, Jewish people, Israel. Israel will be gone,” Trump said.Harris responded by declaring her strong support for Israel. “That’s absolutely not true. I have my entire career and life supported Israel and the Israeli people. He knows that. He’s trying to again divide and distract from the reality, which is it is very well known that Donald Trump is weak and wrong on national security and foreign policy,” Harris said.Harris also said in the debate that she would always “give Israel the ability to defend itself,” meaning US weapons shipments will continue to flow if she becomes president.Discussing the war in Ukraine, Trump said that he would try to end it before he is sworn in. “I want the war to stop. I want to save lives that are being uselessly — people being killed by the millions. It’s the millions. It’s so much worse than the numbers that you’re getting, which are fake numbers,” he said.Trump repeatedly blamed the invasion of Ukraine on Biden being “weak” on Russia and said both the invasion and the October 7 Hamas attack on Israel wouldn’t have happened if he were still president. Harris accused Trump of being fond of “dictators” and took a very pro-NATO line.“Understand why the European allies and our NATO allies are so thankful that you are no longer president and that we understand the importance of the greatest military alliance the world has ever known, which is NATO. And what we have done to preserve the ability of Zelenskyy and the Ukrainians to fight for their Independence,” Harris said.Harris claimed that if Trump were still president, Russian President Vladimir Putin would be “sitting in Kyiv right now.”

Report: US-Iraq Deal Would See US Withdraw Hundreds of Troops Next Year - The US and Iraq have reached an understanding on a withdrawal plan that would see the US remove hundreds of troops from Iraq by September 2025, Reuters reported on Friday.Under the plan, the US would complete the withdrawal by September 2026, but the report said the US could leave a small number of troops in Iraq under a new advisory relationship. The 2,500 troops that are currently in Iraq are deployed under the US-led anti-ISIS coalition.Sources told Reuters that the plan is completed but still needs final approval from both capitals and an announcement date. “We have an agreement, its now just a question of when to announce it,” a senior US official told the outlet.Under the plan, the US would remove hundreds of troops from the Ain al-Asad airbase in western Iraq and reduce its presence in Baghdad by September 2025. Over the following year, the US would remove troops from Erbil in Iraqi Kurdistan.The US and Iraq began talks on the future of the US military presence after Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani called for an end to the US-led coalition following an escalation between the US and a group of Iraqi Shia militias, known as the Popular Mobilization Forces, which are part of Iraq’s security forces.Last month, the State Department said that talks with Iraq did not involve discussions about a US withdrawal, signaling that the US was planning to stay. In recent joint statements, the US and Iraq left open the possibility of a continued US military presence as part of a new bilateral security relationship.A US official told Reuters that the two-year timeline on the withdrawal gives the US “breathing room” to readjust if the situation changes. US officials acknowledged that while the official reason for the US presence is to fight ISIS, it’s also about pushing back against Iran’s influence. US troops in Iraq also support the US occupation of eastern Syria.Al-Sudani has repeatedly said that Iraqi forces could handle ISIS remnants without the US and other foreign forces. After seven US troopswere wounded in a recent raid against ISIS in Iraq, al-Sudani told a US commander that the “remnants of ISIS no longer pose a threat to the Iraqi state.”Iraq’s government has been under pressure to expel the US since January 2020, when a US drone strike in Baghdad killed Iranian Gen. Qasem Soleimani and PMF leader Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis. After the strike, the Iraqi parliament voted to expel US forces, but the US refused to leave.The US has been able to stay in Iraq due to the significant economic leverage it has over the country. Since the 2003 invasion, Iraq’s foreign reserves have been held by the US Federal Reserve, giving Washington control over Baghdad’s dollar supply and the ability to devalue the Iraqi dinar. The US also keeps tight control over Iraq’s ability to pay its neighbor Iran for much-needed electricity.

US Accuses Iran of Supplying Russia With Ballistic Missiles, Imposes New Sanctions - The US on Tuesday formally accused Iran of providing Russia with ballistic missiles and imposed new sanctions on Russian-flagged ships allegedly involved in the weapons transfers.Secretary of State Antony Blinken announced the new sanctions at a press conference in London with his British counterpart, David Lammy. The US also imposed new sanctions on Iran’s main airline, which will have little impact, if any at all, since it’s already under US sanctions.For its part, Iran has denied recent reports that said it was sending ballistic missiles to Russia. “The publication of false and misleading reports about the transfer of Iranian weapons to some countries is simply an ugly propaganda to conceal the large illegal arms support of the United States and some Western countries for the genocide in Gaza,”said Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Nasser Kanaani.“Some Western countries present themselves as defenders of human rights and support the implementation of international conventions and treaties, but send all kinds of weapons to back the war crimes of the Zionist regime,” Kanaani added.Blinken said that the US had warned Iran that providing missiles to Russia would be a “dramatic escalation.” Throughout the war in Ukraine, the US has poured weapons into the conflict, including a variety of missiles and cluster bombs, which are banned by over 100 countries due to their indiscriminate nature.In recent years, Russia and Iran have increased military and economic cooperation, a natural response to US and other Western sanctions that have targeted both nations. Sergey Shoigu, the secretary of the Russian Security Council, said Tuesday that Russia and Iran were close to signing a new agreement to expand cooperation even more.“We are ready to expand cooperation between our security councils. We continue keeping an eye on issues of the practical implementation of top-level agreements,” Shoigu said, according to TASS. “We hope to sign a new framework interstate agreement soon and are finishing domestic procedures necessary to prepare documents for signing by the presidents.”

US accuses China of giving ‘very substantial’ help to Russia’s war machine – — Beijing is giving Moscow "very substantial" help to beef up its war machine, and in return Russia is handing over its closely guarded military tech on submarines and missiles, the United States' Deputy Secretary of State Kurt Campbell said Tuesday. Speaking with a group of journalists, including POLITICO, after meetings with European Union and NATO counterparts in Brussels, Campbell upped the ante on Beijing. The U.S. previously focused on Beijing's supply of what's known as dual-use technologies — which can be applied for military or civilian purposes. Now Washington is unambiguously saying that China is aiding the Russian military. With Moscow facing international sanctions, it desperately needs technology to boost its military production to be able to continue its war against Ukraine. "These are not dual-use capabilities," Campbell said, referring to the latest materials China is giving Russia. "These are basically being applied directly to the Russian war machine." "These are component pieces of a very substantial effort on the part of China to help sustain, build and diversify various elements of the Russian war machine," he added. "We're seeing efforts at the highest levels of both governments to try to both hide and protect certain elements of this worrisome collaboration ... Most of these activities have been driven underground." China has frequently issued statements denying it is supplying Russia with arms to use in Ukraine, insisting it does not provide either side with weapons and has an "impartial position" on the war. In exchange for Beijing's help, Russia has started giving China submarine, missile and other sensitive technologies. Historically, Moscow has been wary of giving Beijing its very latest military technology. "The capabilities that Russia is providing is support in areas where previously they had been frankly reluctant to engage directly with China," Campbell said. "We are concerned about a particular number of military arenas where there appears to be some determination to provide China with greater support. "That has to do with submarine operations, activities of aeronautical design, including stealth; that also involves capacities on missile capabilities," he said.

US officials demand stepped-up militarisation of Australia for war with China --Under conditions where the Labor government is already completing Australia’s transformation into a frontline state for an American-led war against China, top US officials this week demanded more, insisting that the militarisation must be accelerated.The public calls underscore the centrality of the confrontation with China to the perspective of American militarism, as well as Australia’s central place in that program which threatens a catastrophe in the Indo-Pacific. The US has identified China’s economic growth as the greatest threat to the global dominance of American imperialism, and is engaged in a full-court press on every front to curtail it, up to and including war.The calls were made in articles by the Sydney Morning Herald’s international editor Peter Hartcher. An ardent war hawk who has played a leading role for many years in a frenzied anti-China campaign within Australia, Hartcher has the closest of ties to the US national-security apparatus.Hartcher featured a comment by US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan, who indicated that the Biden administration wanted to have “two or three signature projects” involving Australia “launched and under way” by the time it leaves office on January 20 after the upcoming American presidential election.Hartcher wrote: “The US is pushing for the AUKUS partnership to launch some world-leading new military technology projects before Joe Biden’s presidency ends, amid signs of growing impatience with the initiative.”The unspecified projects come under Pillar 2 of AUKUS, the militarist pact between the US, the UK and Australia directed against China. While Pillar 1 refers to Australia’s acquisition of nuclear-powered submarines, slated to begin with the delivery of three US Virginia-class subs early next decade, Pillar 2 covers a broad and vaguely defined array of “advanced” military and defence capabilities.Among those that have been publicly listed are the development of additional capabilities in advanced cyber, artificial intelligence, quantum technologies, undersea warfare, hypersonics, electronic warfare, innovation, and information sharing.Every aspect of AUKUS and the war drive, including research and development is shrouded in secrecy and takes the form of a conspiracy against the population. As with the establishment of AUKUS itself and the nuclear submarine program, there is every likelihood that the “projects” called for by Sullivan will be publicly-revealed after they are already well underway, without even the pretense of a democratic mandate.Hartcher, while promoting Sullivan’s call, remained silent on what these “projects” may be. He cited Australia’s Defence Industry Minister Pat Conroy who indicated “Areas of progress… included sharing data between the three nations’ P8 submarine-hunting aircraft and successful joint exercises of undersea drones.” A particular focus appears to be on the development of hypersonic missiles. In June, the US government revealed that Hypersonic Attack Cruise Missiles would be tested in Australia. The next month, the Labor administration quietly admitted that the missiles would be integrated into the Australian air forces fleet of F/A-18F Super Hornet fighter jets.In a promotion of hypersonic missiles, the Northrop Grunman weapons company explained: “A hypersonic pace—five or more times the speed of sound—can put a missile on target before enemy defense systems can respond effectively. Having long range hypersonic systems allows pilots to prosecute targets without having to put themselves within range of air defense systems.”That is, these are an offensive capability, clearly being acquired for use in a major war, such as one against China.

US Looking To Give Military Aid to Gabon To Keep China Out - The US is working on a military and economic aid package for Gabon as part of a deal to keep the Chinese military out of the African nation,Bloomberg reported on Friday.Sources told Bloomberg that the agreement would include training Gabon’s special forces and $5 million in funding for the country’s democratic transition. The report didn’t say how much the US is willing to spend on the military assistance.The US suspended some aid to Gabon last year following a coup that ousted Ali Bongo, the country’s president since 2009. Before that, his father, Omar Bongo, had ruled since 1967.The new US aid package for Gabon hasn’t been finalized and is expected to be unveiled when Brice Oligui Nguema, a military officer acting as Gabon’s “transitional president,” will visit Washington either at the end of September or early October.US military officials have been warning for years that China is seeking to establish a military base on Africa’s Atlantic coast. China has a naval base in Djibouti on the east coast of Africa, which marked its first foreign military base.The US has about 750 military bases worldwide, including many near China, but sources told Bloomberg that a Chinese base on the Atlantic Ocean is a red line for the US even if it’s as far away from the continental United States as Gabon, which lies on the equator.US officials claim that China has been attempting to establish a military training facility in Gabon, which they fear could lead to a permanent base. China has other ways of spreading its influence on the African continent, mainly by helping fund infrastructure projects, and the US has also been attempting to push back against those efforts.

Jake Auchincloss: Donald Trump 'out-negotiated' by Taliban on Afghanistan - Rep. Jake Auchincloss (D-Mass.) said former President Trump was “out-negotiated” by the Taliban when he struck a deal to withdraw US troops from Afghanistan on a specific timeline. “What went wrong under Donald Trump is that he was out-negotiated by the Taliban in Doha, and he handcuffed both himself and the next administration to a timetable and a deal that gave Taliban the leverage,” Auchincloss, who served in Afghanistan, said in an interview on “The Hill” on NewsNation. The Trump administration brokered a deal with the Taliban in 2020 that laid out a plan for the U.S. to fully withdraw from Afghanistan by May 2021 if the group upheld certain commitments, such as denying safe haven to al Qaeda. President Biden, who shared Trump’s disdain for forever wars, said he would follow through with Trump’s plans to withdraw from Afghanistan, but he moved the exact date twice, citing logistical considerations. The withdrawal, however, marked a low point for the Biden administration, which was hammered in the media for its messy execution and for the devastating terrorist attack that killed 12 U.S. soldiers and others. The Taliban retook control faster than U.S. officials predicted, which Auchincloss suggested was a result of Trump’s deal. The Afghan forces trained and equipped by American troops also failed to provide much resistance. Auchincloss, in the Monday interview, said the withdrawal would never have been flawless, but he credited Biden with making the difficult but “courageous decision.” “The challenge that Joe Biden had is that he made the courageous decision to end a war that had accomplished its counterterrorism purpose, but that had become lost in the muck of a counterinsurgency campaign that was entering its third decade and $3 trillion of sunk cost,” Auchincloss said. “And withdrawing 100,000 troops and tens of thousands of more individuals is never going to be a 10 out of 10 dismount. Of course, there were going to be flaws, but ultimately, he took the correct action,” he added. Trump spokesperson Steven Cheung responded to the interview by placing blame on the Biden-Harris administration and specifically focusing on the role Vice President Harris, Biden’s running mate, played in the withdrawal. “Who is Jake Auchincloss? Whoever he is, he should actually tell the truth about how Harris-Biden presided over one of the biggest foreign policy blunders in U.S. history that led to 13 unnecessary deaths of our service members,” Cheung said. “Kamala Harris is a disgrace and she proudly said she was the last person in the room with Biden before they made that disastrous decision.”

The West Is A Dystopian Wasteland Of Moral Degeneracy - Caitlin Johnstone - The west is a dystopian wasteland of moral degeneracy. Usually when you hear a white person talk about moral degeneracy it’s some wingnut denouncing LGBTQ rights or women’s reproductive rights or whatever, but that’s not what I mean. I’m talking about real things here. The real moral decay of our society is illustrated in the way all mainstream political candidates can openly support war crimes currently being inflicted on people in the global south without being immediately removed from power. The way monstrous war criminals of past administrations can endorse a liberal candidate without causing self-proclaimed progressives to recoil from that candidate in horror. The way you can have the two viable candidates for the world’s most powerful elected position both pledge to continue an active genocide without instantly sparking a revolution. The moral degeneracy of this civilization looks like living lives of relative comfort built on the backs of workers in the global south whose labor and resources are extracted from their nations at profoundly exploitative rates, while raining military explosives on impoverished populations who dare to disobey the dictates of our government, day after day, year after year, decade after decade, and acting like this is all fine and normal. Being born into western civilization is like waking up in the middle of a massive lynch mob. Something terrible is happening, and everyone’s going along with it and telling you it’s fine and it’s normal, and even if you’re able to figure out that what they’re doing is wrong in all the chaos and confusion you find yourself powerless to stop them, because the whole thing has so much momentum already and there are far too many people blindly caught up in the frenzy of bloodlust for you to make everyone change course. Just continuing to live among them makes you complicit in their actions in many ways, but you have nowhere else to go besides this lynch mob town you were born into. So you just move to the fringes of the mob and share your objections with the few people who will listen to you. Our civilization is cruel and savage, but we compartmentalize away from its cruelty and savagery and laugh at our sitcoms and vapid comedians and make believe the worst things happening politically in our society are the mainstream culture war wedge issues that pundits and politicians prefer to keep us talking about. We live out our lives sedated by entertainment and social media and food and pharmaceuticals while genocide, nuclear brinkmanship and ecocide unfold all around us, thinking ourselves good and virtuous if we are kind to our pets and hold the correct opinions about racial justice and vaccines. If we as a society were actually good, none of this would be happening. Moral clarity would find all this intolerable, and would reject it and eject it by any means necessary. Which is why the powerful pour so much energy into keeping us all sedated and confused. A lot of power and wealth rides on our lack of moral clarity. There is much wealth to be gained by exploiting labor and extracting resources around the world. There is much power to be secured by murdering, starving and terrorizing any population which refuses to bow to the interests of the western empire. This is why the western empire has the most sophisticated propaganda machine ever devised: because so much wealth and power depends on ensuring the west remains in a state of moral degeneracy, and that westerners do not regard the citizenry of the global south as fully human. When I see the inside of a child’s skull for the hundredth time next to video footage of IDF soldiers mockingly dressed in the clothes of dead or displaced Palestinian women and playing with the toys of dead or displaced children while western podium pontiffs pretend to believe the military they’re arming has done nothing wrong, I struggle to find adjectives strong enough to describe what I am looking at. Maybe “demonic” is as close as you can get, even if you don’t believe in actual biblical demons. That’s what I’m talking about when I say the west is a wasteland of moral degeneracy. The type of civilization which would allow its government to do things like this necessarily has a collective conscience that has been so warped and twisted by propaganda and self-interest that it’s the same as not having a conscience at all. If you can’t regard the vast majority of the population of this planet as fully human and equal to yourself, then morally speaking you’re no better than the perpetrators of slavery and genocide we’ve been taught to judge negatively in history class. And that’s the norm here. It’s what we were born into. It’s what we spend all our lives being trained to accept as normal.

Trump says more tariffs will stop wars. Experts disagree. --Former President Trump offered a new strategy for world peace during a rally in North Carolina last month: massive tariffs on countries that start wars. “We don’t have to send troops, I can do it with a telephone call,” he said. “You go to war with another country that’s friendly to us, or even not friendly to us, you’re not going to do business in the United States and we’re going to charge you 100 percent tariffs.” “And all of a sudden, the president or prime minister or dictator or whoever the hell is running the country says to me, ‘Sure, we won’t go to war,” Trump continued. Trump has made similar remarks in several of his campaign speeches, repeatedly blaming President Biden — and more recently Vice President Harris — for bringing the world to the brink of World War III, and promising that he will restore peace and global order if elected. But pressuring countries with tariffs, a tax on imported goods, is unlikely to work, experts say, especially because the U.S. does not trade with most of its adversaries besides China. And historically, tariffs have a blowback for the U.S. economy, with experts pointing to the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act of 1930 that saw Washington impose tariffs to protect American industries during the Great Depression, only for countries to respond in kind to devastating economic effect in America. George Lopez, professor emeritus of peace studies at the University of Notre Dame and a leading economic sanctions expert, said tariffs are even less effective than sanctions, the more widely used foreign policy tool that prohibits business with a targeted nation’s companies and individuals. “Even China is going to put down the phone from an American president and [his] closest allies,” he said of a tariff policy. “There’s nobody in the room who’s going to take that seriously.” The cost of a major tariff campaign as a foreign policy tool is troubling, added Lopez. “This really is economics 101, and the notion that [Trump sees this] as a high priority, bold statement of economic policy, must be sending just chills to the spines of Wall Street and others,” he said. Karoline Leavitt, the Trump campaign’s national press secretary, credited Trump’s tariffs on China and sanctions on Iran for the “thriving economy and peace around the globe” while he was in the White House. “Kamala Harris’ weakness and failures have emboldened our adversaries and pushed us to the brink of WWIII,” she said in a statement. “No one believes for a second that Kamala Harris has what it takes to stand up to our adversaries and restore the economy that she broke.” “When President Trump is back in the White House, he will stand up to our adversaries, negotiate better trade deals, restore peace around the world, and make America strong again,” she added. Although the U.S. Constitution awards the power of taxes to Congress, the legislative branch has over time given the president vast authority to impose tariffs. Trump has pledged to impose a 60 percent tariff on Chinese goods if he takes office in January. Both the Trump and Biden administrations have placed heavy tariffs on China targeting electric vehicles, semiconductor chips, semiconductors, steel and aluminum products and other goods. It’s unlikely that the threat of more tariffs will deter China from potentially invading the self-governing island nation of Taiwan or escalating conflict with the Philippines in the South China Sea, said William Reinsch, Scholl Chair in international business at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. “The only U.S. threat that will make a difference is a military one,” he said. Tariffs will likely drive nations to accept the cost or seek out other markets, but Reinsch said the U.S. may have some leverage over smaller countries that rely more on the U.S. economy – Serbia, which has threatened Kosovo in recent years, is one example. But it would still have a limited impact on their decision-making. “When you start talking about geopolitical and military things, it’s not easy to use an economic weapon if other countries think that their fundamental territorial integrity is at risk,” he said. A major tariff campaign on China, the world’s second largest economy, would almost certainly hurt American consumers and the U.S. economy, with higher taxes forcing Americans to pay higher prices to import the goods.

JD Vance pushes false accusations of Haitians eating pets --GOP vice presidential nominee Sen. JD Vance (Ohio) on Monday amplified a false claim that Haitian immigrants are abducting and eating pets in Springfield, Ohio, despite the city’s police department denying any such incidents.In a post on the social platform X, Vance published a video of him at a July Senate Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs Committee hearing, reading a letter from Springfield city manager Bryan Heck detailing the city’s challenges in keeping up with housing for a growing Haitian immigrant population.Vance added a reference to a now-debunked social media post.“Months ago, I raised the issue of Haitian illegal immigrants draining social services and generally causing chaos all over Springfield, Ohio. Reports now show that people have had their pets abducted and eaten by people who shouldn’t be in this country. Where is our border czar?” he wrote.Those reports are largely based on social media postings that were picked up by national figures including Charlie Kirk and Elon Musk over the weekend.But Heck, whose letter Vance read in the committee room, said false allegations against immigrants were distracting from the real issues faced by Springfield.“In response to recent rumors alleging criminal activity by the immigrant population in our city, we wish to clarify that there have been no credible reports or specific claims of pets being harmed, injured or abused by individuals within the immigrant community. Additionally, there have been no verified instances of immigrants engaging in illegal activities such as squatting or littering in front of residents’ homes. Furthermore, no reports have been made regarding members of the immigrant community deliberately disrupting traffic,” Heck told The Hill in an email.“Yes this clearly takes away from the letter’s point that we are struggling with housing, resources for our schools, and an overwhelmed healthcare system.”The Springfield Police Division told the Springfield News-Sun on Monday that it has received no reports about anyone stealing or eating pets.At an Aug. 27 Springfield City Commission meeting, local resident Anthony Harris alleged, among other things, that Haitian immigrants were slaughtering park ducks for food. Video of his speech has been widely shared on social media.“Senator Vance has received a high volume of calls and emails over the past several weeks from concerned citizens in Springfield: his tweet is based on what he is hearing from them. The city has faced an influx of 15,000-20,000 Haitian migrants over the past four years, stressing public resources and leading to housing shortages, all thanks to Kamala Harris’s policy of extending temporary protected status designations,” a Vance spokesperson said.“Many residents have contacted Senator Vance to share their concerns over crime and traffic accidents, and to express that they no longer feel safe in their own homes. Unlike the liberal media, JD takes his constituents’ concerns seriously.”According to a frequently asked questions page managed by the Springfield police, between 12,000 and 15,000 Haitians live in the midwestern city legally, under the Temporary Protected Status (TPS) program. Heck’s letter estimated that population to be between 15,000 and 20,000.

Harris and Trump's contrasting visions for immigration and border security Tuesday’s presidential debate, accurately reflecting voters’ priorities, spent more time on immigration and border security than any other issue except the economy. Unfortunately, post-debate commentators focused on former President Donald Trump’s unsubstantiated claim that migrants in Springfield, Ohio, were eating dogs and cats, but the two questions before and after that bizarre exchange were actually much more important and deserve a serious follow-up. Immigration and border security highlight the stark differences between the two candidates’ visions for America. Are we a nation of immigrants, or are immigrants a threat? Both sides say enforce the law, then point to different laws. As a senior Department of Homeland Security official for more than a decade in the Bush, Obama and Trump administrations, I know the challenges of securing our borders. The stakes could not be higher. To ABC’s David Muir’s previous question, Vice President Kamala Harris said she supported the bipartisan Senate compromise on immigration and border security — a bill that would have made wide-ranging policy, operational and resource improvements, as well as a sizable down payment on making the immigration system more just, fair and secure. After disposing of the dog-eating story, Muir asked Trump the next-crucial question: How would he actually carry out his plan to deport 11 million unauthorized migrants? Trump never got close to answering the question. Given that mass deportation is central to Trump’s approach to immigration and border security, this non-answer needs follow up, because it is highly likely Trump’s plan will end up creatingmass detention camps in America, the scale of which was last seen in the U.S. during the shameful 1940s internment of U.S. citizens of Japanese ancestry. Here’s why: The U.S., like other wealthy countries, has millions more migrants claiming asylum than our immigration system can handle. Federal courts have ruled that the government cannot detain immigrants indefinitely while waiting to see if they will be granted asylum, so many are released into the U.S. But Republicans decry this as “catch and release,” and want it stopped. Despite Trump’s claim of “the strongest border in American history,” Trump had two border crises during his term: an intentional policy of child separation in 2018, and a 2019 migrant surge that was solved only after a $4.6 billion supplemental appropriation. Arrivals plummetedduring the 2020 pandemic as global travel shut down worldwide — a success that is hardly useful for the future.The Biden administration reversed many Trump immigration policies but capped the budgets for the three departments that administer the immigration system — DHS, Justice, and Health and Human Services — to little more than Trump-era numbers. The policy changes produced a surge in migrant arrivals, but without additional resources to quickly reject unfounded asylum claims, the case backlog, which had doubled under Trump, doubled again in the first two full years under Biden, leading to more releases but also to more deportations and removals. Most Americans do not realize that by January 2025, the Biden administration will eventually remove about as many unauthorized migrants from the border as the 1.5 million removed on Trump’s watch.A Washington “czar” controls policy, resources, operations and messaging across multiple departments. Despite what Trump said, Harris was never truly the border czar. If anything, the Biden administration could be faulted for not having a border “czar” until October 2023, when it sent Congress its first multi-departmental border supplemental appropriation request.Secretary of Homeland Security Alejandro Mayorkas stepped forward in November to negotiate a tough but realistic bipartisan Senate compromise. As Harris said Tuesday night, Trump killedthe measure in mid-January. After Biden announced policy changes in June to tighten up asylum procedures and keep families together, unauthorized arrivals fell dramatically. Harris’s commitment to passing and signing the bipartisan Senate compromise is thus striking. It means there will be no going back to earlier policies with inadequate resources. She committed to an approach that has (Trump excepted) bipartisan appeal. Republicans get a path to ending catch-and-release and stronger enforcement of immigration laws, while Democrats get a process for asylum seekers that is fast, fair and final. In contrast, Trump promises “the largest deportation operation” in history. But there are not enough Immigration and Customs Enforcement agents, or beds in immigration detention—especially for families — to make this work. Trump has consistently said, as he agreed on Tuesday night, he would call on the national guard and local law enforcement to help carry outmass arrests. Trump adviser Stephen Miller has said that the military will build detention facilities behind barbed wire to hold all the people. Despite what Trump claims, it will be impossible to deport people fast enough. Lower courts will likely block or delay mass deportations until people with legal claims to remain can be heard.Trump may expect a favorable Supreme Court ruling, but that will take months. Trump could defy lower court orders by offering pardons to officials doing his bidding, as he promised in 2019. Even if Trump uses the military, he will run up against the limited number of aircraft and buses to transfer hundreds of thousands of detainees within the U.S. or to third countries willing to take them. The nightmare becomes obvious: A second Trump administration could detain hundreds of thousands of people, but it does not have the ability or the capacity to move them out of the country as fast as ICE, the National Guard and local law enforcement can bring them in. Expect to see families behind barbed wire in overcrowded camps, desperate U.S.-citizen children looking for missing immigrant parents, and U.S. citizens swept up in immigration raids.

Gallup poll: 70 percent of Americans approve of labor unions -- Seven in 10 Americans say they approve of labor unions, just shy of the record-high approval rating for organized labor, according to a new Gallup poll.The survey, released Monday, found 70 percent of Americans approve of labor unions, while 23 percent disapprove and 7 percent have no opinion. This is 1 point shy of the 71 percent reading in 2022, which marked the highest approval rating since 1965.Gallup first began measuring the public’s approval of labor unions in 1936, and the highest support of 75 percent was observed in the 1950s. Union approval has dropped below 50 percent once, to 48 percent in 2009 following the Great Recession, the pollster said. Approval of labor unions varies across party lines, with Democrats showing more support than Republicans, while independents fall in the middle of the two groups.About 94 percent of Democrats approve of labor unions, up 6 points from last year. Meanwhile, 49 percent of Republicans and 67 percent of independents said the same, per Gallup.The poll was taken Aug. 1-20, almost entirely between the Republican and Democratic conventions, which both had labor union speakers.Both major party candidates, Vice President Harris and former President Trump, have spent time on the campaign trail looking to court union voters ahead of November. The poll also found Americans are more likely to say the Democratic Party best serves labor union members over the Republican Party, following a decades-long trend.The latest numbers show 62 percent chose the Democratic Party as best serving labor unions, while the 27 percent chose the Republican Party.Harris received support from several major organized labor groups after becoming the Democratic Party’s presidential nominee, including the United Auto Workers (UAW). The union’s president, Shawn Fain, cited Harris’s “track record” with workers.In a memo released last month, the Harris campaign argued union workers would be a key part of the Democratic ticket’s success in November. The memo, obtained first by The Hill, showcased Harris and President Biden’s record of support for organized labor.Harris has sought to contrast herself from Trump, who has insisted union members will back his campaign even in the wake of a public feud with Fain, who has called him a “scab.”Trump has sought to slam Harris on the economy in a bid to shore up union support. His allies have contended that taking away even some of Biden’s support among organized labor could make a difference in the race. The former president lost union members by 14 percentage points in 2020 against Biden.

Donald Trump proposes ending taxes on overtime pay -- Former President Trump on Thursday called for ending taxes on overtime wages for individuals who work more than 40 hours a week, his latest proposal to slash individual taxes if he is reelected. “We will end all taxes on overtime. You know what that means? Think of that. That gives people more of an incentive to work, it gives the companies a lot, it’s a lot easier to get the people,” Trump said at a rally in Arizona. “The people who work overtime are among the hardest working citizens in our country, and for too long no one in Washington has been looking out for them,” he added. The proposal would require congressional action. Trump did not offer additional details about how it would work. The Harris campaign in a statement dismissed Trump’s proposal as “desperate,” contrasting it with the Justice Department under his first administration opting not to defend an Obama-era Labor Department rule that would have extended overtime benefits to more than 4 million workers. “No matter how much he lies now, Donald Trump’s record and agenda are clear – as president, he stole millions of dollars of wages from the workers he purports to represent,” Harris spokesperson Joseph Costello said in a statement. “He is desperate and scrambling and saying whatever it takes to try to trick people into voting for him,” Costello added. “If he takes power again, he will only look out for himself and his billionaire buddies and their big corporations. There’s only one candidate in this race who will actually fight for workers: Vice President Kamala Harris.” Rep. Russ Fulcher (R-Idaho) earlier this year introduced legislation to eliminate income taxes on overtime pay, arguing it would help workers combat rising costs. His proposal noted the bill had never been attempted at the federal level.Trump has in recent months proposed ending taxes on tipped wages and has called for eliminating taxes on Social Security benefits.Vice President Harris, who is the Democratic nominee for president, later echoed Trump’s call for eliminating taxes on tips and called for an increase in the minimum wage. Harris’s campaign said her proposal would include an income limit and provisions to keep corporations from taking advantage of the policy.The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget estimated that exempting tip income from federal income, as well as increasing the minimum wage, could add between $100 billion and $200 billion to the nation’s deficits in a 10-year window. Meanwhile, the Tax Foundation found that ending taxes on Social Security benefits would increase the deficit by $1.6 trillion over 10 years, and could quicken the insolvency of the program.

Senate Dem: ‘Neither party has any credibility’ on taxes and debt levels - Ahead of expiring measures in the tax code scheduled for next year, Sen. Mark Warner (D-Va.) said Thursday that neither Democrats nor Republicans were particularly trustworthy when it comes to the subject of taxes and the level of the national debt. “Frankly, neither political party has any credibility on the issue,” he said. Warner said the last time there was serious bipartisan consideration of debt and revenue levels was during the Obama administration’s Simpson-Bowles commission, which resulted in recommendations to cut Social Security and raise taxes. “We’re looking at the tax piece. We’ve got to have more revenues, and I know people have tangentially touched on this, but the last time we seriously looked at revenues and expenditures was really the Simpson-Bowles commission,” he said. The national debt stock at that time was around $14 trillion. Today it’s around $35 trillion, having jumped up to a new plateau after pandemic-related rescue measures including boosted tax credits and stimulus checks. Following the commission, the seasonally adjusted debt to gross domestic product ratio hovered around 100 percent between 2012 and 2019, before jumping up to its new level around 120 percent since 2020. Down-to-the-wire negotiations about spending levels and the increasing use of procedural workarounds like continuing resolutions have weighed on the consciences of both investors and the electorate. A 2023 survey from polling agency Pew found that concerns about the deficit increased between 2021 and 2023, just before a debt ceiling negotiation threatened a U.S. default. In the aftermath of that fight, ratings agency Fitch downgraded U.S. creditworthiness on concerns about “erosion of governance.” “In Fitch’s view, there has been a steady deterioration in standards of governance over the last 20 years, including on fiscal and debt matters, notwithstanding the June bipartisan agreement to suspend the debt limit until January 2025,” analysts for the company concluded. Since the 2010 commission, economic inequality in the U.S. has continued to increase, which was a concern for senators of both parties during a Thursday meeting of the Senate Finance Committee. The U.S. is the most financially unequal country among wealthy economies in the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, behind just Costa Rica and Turkey, whose economies the U.S. dwarfs. Economist Thomas Piketty and others found in 2018 that average real income before taxes has stagnated for the bottom 50 percent of Americans since 1980 at about $16,000 a year, a number that’s in the ballpark of the latest census data on income and poverty. Lawmakers are now preparing scaffolding around the tax code for significant revisions expected next year, which will depend greatly on the outcome of the election. Whether the pattern of Republican-driven tax cuts that are then left in place and extended temporarily with the participation of Democrats will continue, or whether a new revenue architecture is put in place, remains to be seen.

Democrats' bill aims to make fossil fuel industry pay for climate change -- A large group of Democrats is looking to force the fossil fuel industry to pay for climate change. Lawmakers unveiled a bill Thursday that would allow the Treasury Department to impose fees on major fossil fuel companies that are owned or operated in the U.S. The legislation seeks to establish a $1 trillion fund that companies would have to pay into based on their share of planet-warming emissions. The money would go toward infrastructure upgrades, cleaning up pollution and providing assistance after climate-related disasters. “After fueling the climate crisis for decades, big polluters can no longer run from their responsibility to address the harm they have done,” said Sen. Chris Van Hollen (D-Md.), the bill’s Senate sponsor, in a written statement. The bill’s House sponsors are Reps. Jerry Nadler (D-N.Y.) and Judy Chu (D-Calif.). The legislation has virtually no chance of passing under the Republican-led House, but could be a major Democratic talking point in the run-up to the election. The bill would also likely face an uphill battle under almost any Senate composition given the upper chamber’s 60-vote threshold for avoiding a filibuster.

Cardin raises concern over Azerbaijan hosting COP29 -Sen. Ben Cardin (D-Md.), chair of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, expressed concern on Monday with Azerbaijan hosting the COP29 climate conference in November, pointing to the country imprisoning Armenian and pro-environmental activists. Cardin, in a statement, said “hosting a major international conference like COP29 should come with responsibilities and expectations that host countries allow frank discussion of information and issues, which requires recognizing freedoms of speech and assembly.” “Azerbaijan has not done so,” he said, urging the country’s president, Ilham Aliyev, “to release those unjustly imprisoned by his government, including Armenian detainees, and community activists who peacefully demonstrated against poor labor practices and harmful environmental impacts of the Chovdar gold mine operation.” The Hill has reached out to Azerbaijan’s embassy in the U.S. for comment. Azerbaijan, located between Asia and Europe in the Caucasus Mountains, will host COP29 from Nov. 11-22 in the capital of Baku. Azerbaijan was announced last December as the next host of the conference that brings together 197 countries and the European Union to advance goals committed to easing the global climate crisis. The conference comes ahead of the 2025 Paris Agreement deadline for nations to put forward climate targets for the year 2035 that are more ambitious than their existing 2030 targets. Azerbaijan has seen intense scrutiny as the conference’s host because it’s an oil and gas producer, and the decision to host came after Baku captured a breakaway region with Armenia, Nagorno-Karabakh, in September 2023, which prompted a mass exodus of the ethnic Armenian population. Baku has also been criticized for jailing critics and independent media. Amnesty International this month called for the release of government critics detained by Azerbaijan, while Human Rights Watch did the same for independent media over the spring. Cardin said Monday that “Azerbaijan has the potential to be an important member of the international community and partner to the United States,” but that Baku must first release several detainees. “Ahead of COP29 in November, I urge the Azerbaijani government to demonstrate its commitment to upholding human rights by releasing these individuals without delay,” Cardin said.

Carbon capture and storage is a fantasy — and taxpayers are footing the bill -- This spring, Democrats wrapped up a nearly three-year investigation into the fossil fuel industry’s role in climate disinformation and asked the Department of Justice to pick up where they left off. In House and Senate Democrats’ final report and hearing, investigators concluded that major oil companies had not only misled the public on climate change for decades, but also were continuing to misinform them about the industry’s preferred climate “solutions”— particularly biofuels and carbon capture.Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse (D-RI) and Rep. Jamie Raskin (D-MD), who spearheaded the investigation, also accused oil companies of “obstructing” the investigation, submitting few documents, and redacting much of what they did send. One ExxonMobil employee who spoke with Drilled and Vox under condition of anonymity for fear of retaliation described what the company sent as “a truly random assortment of unimportant documents.”But there was at least one notable exception in the form of a report detailing the company’s projections for the future of carbon capture technology. If you’ve read the New York Times recently, or seen this ad on Politico’s website or heard it on one of its podcasts, or listened to the Planet Money podcast, you may have noticed the industry’s relentlessly positive marketing of carbon capture, which aims to collect and store CO2 emissions from power plants and industrial and fossil fuel extraction facilities, so they don’t add to global warming. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has said carbon capture might be necessary to reduce the emissions of certain “hard to abate” sectors like steel, concrete, and some chemical manufacturing, but noted that in the best-case scenario, with carbon capture technology working flawlessly and deployed at large scale, it could only account for a little over 2 percent of global carbon emissions reductions by 2030.That hasn’t stopped major oil companies from claiming that carbon capture and storage “will be essential for helping society achieve net-zero emissions,” that they are delivering “carbon capture for American industry,” working on reducing emissions in their own businesses (also referred to as “carbon intensity”), and delivering “heavy industry with low emissions.” But internal documents obtained during the federal investigation, as well as information that industry whistleblowers shared with Drilled and Vox, reveal an industry that is decidedly more realistic about the emissions-reduction potential of carbon capture and storage technology, or CCS, than it presents publicly.In 2018, the oil and gas company Shell released an updated energy scenario, a forecast that served as a standard for the rest of the oil industry, in which it laid out what the Washington Post called a “radical” new approach on climate. Beginning in 1965, Shell pioneered the now-common practice of “scenario planning” for oil companies: mapping out what the industry and the world are likely to look like in the future; other oil companies will still often compare their scenarios to Shell’s.Exxon’s own internal 2018 scenario comparison was included in the most recent batch of documents handed over to Senate and House investigators. In it, ExxonMobil compared its future projections with Shell’s rosiest forecast for the energy transition. Buried in a chart in that projection is ExxonMobil’s belief about the global potential for CCS.Even without the massive stamp on this page marking it as part of a set of documents obtained by congressional subpoena, these graphs would be difficult to read. The one above compares the projected number of CCS units in Shell’s scenario versus the number projected by ExxonMobil, while the graph on the right compares the two companies’ forecasts for future CO2 emissions.While Shell’s optimistic projection envisions 10,000 large-scale CCS facilities operational by 2070, with more than 2,500 facilities by 2050, Exxon predicts somewhere between 250 and 500 facilities by 2050. Elsewhere in the scenario, Exxon also envisions that “global scale is limited” for CCS and hydrogen tech by 2050.Exxon’s past projections were much more in line with what critics of CCS have been saying for years. The IPCC, for example, has said that even if realized at its full announced potential, CCS would only account for about 2.4 percent of the world’s carbon mitigation by 2030. In its fact sheet on CCS, the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA), a nonprofit, nonpartisan think tank in Ohio that produces market-based research on the energy transition, states: “It’s worth noting that not one single CCS project has ever reached its target CO2 capture rate.”Stanford University researcher Mark Jacobson said that because it also requires energy and materials to function, CCS attached to a fossil-fueled power plant is still worse for the climate than replacing fossil energy with renewables. “They actually increase carbon dioxide emissions by doing this, in addition to increasing air pollution,” he said, referencing a study he conducted in 2019 quantifying the lifecycle CO2 emissions of various carbon capture scenarios. Even when CCS is powered by wind, Jacobson said it’s not worth doing, from a climate perspective. “If you just used wind to replace coal in the first place, you’d get a higher reduction in CO2 emissions,” he said. And oil giants themselves have been hedging on the technology for years, despite marketing its potential. When the Environmental Protection Agency proposed requiring that power plants install CCS in its rules for power plants, for example, both fossil fuel companies and utilities expressed far less faith in the technology in their public comments on the rule than they have in their ads about carbon capture. In Exxon’s public comment, the company encouraged the agency to reduce its requirements around capture efficiency from 95 percent to 75 percent, which is more in line with the actual performance of existing CCS projects.“Last year, when the first EPA power plant rule was released, it was going to mandate either using CCS on a power plant in order to reduce greenhouse gas emissions or to take some action that would be equivalent to adding CCS, and the response from industry was ‘Hey, the tech is really not proven,’” said David Schlissel, director of resource planning analysis for IEEFA. “Many, many comments from oil companies and utilities, in response to both the initial EPA rule and the current one, were saying this tech really doesn’t work.”

House COVID subcommittee accuses Cuomo of 'wrongdoing' in report -The GOP-controlled House Select Subcommittee on the Coronavirus Pandemic on Monday published findings from its investigation into former New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo’s (D) actions during the COVID-19 pandemic, alleging evidence of the governor’s office deliberately seeking to conceal the extent of nursing home deaths due to the virus.The results of the investigation come just one day before Cuomo is set to testify before the subcommittee.Critics of Cuomo have accused him of issuing a directive early on in the pandemic — on March 25 — that compelled nursing homes to accept COVID-positive patients directly from hospitals. Cuomo has consistently defended his actions during the pandemic, arguing that other governors issued similar directives and that they were all following federal guidance.However, the memorandum from House investigators alleges that Cuomo issued the directive for nursing homes despite knowing it would increase the risk of transmission. Cuomo and former staffers of his administration provided over 50 hours of testimony to the subcommittee for its probe.“The Cuomo Administration is responsible for recklessly exposing New York’s most vulnerable population to COVID-19. Today’s memo holds Mr. Cuomo and his team accountable for their failures and provides the most detailed and comprehensive accounting of New York’s pandemic-era wrongdoing,” said subcommittee chair Brad Wenstrup (R-Ohio).In their testimonies, Cuomo and former Commissioner of the New York State Department of Health Howard Zucker both reiterated that the directive was issued in line with guidance from the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid (CMS) as well as the Centers for DIsease Control and Prevention (CDC).Guidance issued in mid-March of 2020 by CMS, shortly before Cuomo gave his directive, stated that nursing homes could still accept a resident diagnosed with COVID-19 “as long as the facility can follow CDC guidance for Transmission-Based Precautions. If a nursing home cannot, it must wait until these precautions are discontinued.”The subcommittee, however, cited 2021 testimony from Deborah Birx, who served as coronavirus response coordinator under the Trump administration, in which she said the New York state directive violated CMS guidance.The report pointed the differences in the CMS guidance and Cuomo’s directive, noting the non-binding language that CMS employed such as “can” and “should” while the New York guidance used commanding words like “must” and “prohibit.”Cuomo acknowledged in his testimony to the subcommittee that the decision to terminate the directive less than two months later was influenced by public pressure.The former governor said he halted the directive “because the public relations after April 20 had made the public so nervous and so concerned, anyone who had family in a nursing home was agitated and frightened.”An independent report commissioned by New York Gov. Kathy Hochul (D) looking into New York’s COVID-19 response found that while the “novelty” of the COVID-19 pandemic explained part of what happened in New York nursing homes, there were systemic, pre-pandemic issues that resulted in “avoidable response failings.”The New York report also noted that among the state’s nursing facilities “overall outcomes were not substantially inconsistent with overall performance in such facilities nationwide.” But it criticized Cuomo’s decision to center the state’s response within the executive office, bypassing structures built in response to past emergencies, and said the admission of COVID patients into nursing homes created a “small secondary medical surge.”“Every one of these patients was still recovering from a life-threatening illness requiring more care than normal, and each of these patients represented an infection risk to all the other patients, requiring the facility to figure out isolation, quarantine, and distancing in a finite space,” it said.The state-commissioned report also criticized New York’s reporting on nursing home deaths as “lacking in transparency.” In his testimony to the subcommittee, Cuomo said the pandemic data reporting from his administration “could not have been more transparent.”“I’ll say to you what I said to your Democratic colleagues. 6,500 in facility, 2,500 out of facility. So what? Well, you were trying to make the number look lower so you didn’t add the out-of-facility. There is no difference between 6,500 or 6,500 plus 2,500,” Cuomo told the House investigators. Representatives for Cuomo criticized the subcommittee’s staff memorandum as being full of “cherry picked testimony & conclusions not supported by reality.”“After wasting millions of taxpayer dollars with federal and state investigations that found no evidence of wrongdoing, this MAGA Congressional Committee came up short on verifying the Big Lie they’ve been peddling for years,” Cuomo spokesman Rich Azzopardi said in a statement.“Its report does not conclude there was any causality between the March 25th DOH guidance and deaths in nursing homes. Nor does the report provide any evidence to support the claim of ‘mandatory’ nursing home admissions – an allegation previously refuted by the New York State Attorney General.”

Bill introduced to combat misleading social media ads for prescription drugs -- Sens. Dick Durbin (D-Ill.) and Mike Braun (R-Ind.) introduced bipartisan legislation Thursday to confront the sale and misleading promotion of prescription drugs by telehealth firms and social media influencers. The Protecting Patients from Deceptive Drug Ads Online Act would impose civil penalties on social media influencers or health care providers who make false or misleading claims regarding prescription drugs. Under the bill, false or misleading communications are those made on social media in which the person or entity making them benefits financially, knowing that the claims are false; that don’t include information about possible side effects or interactions; and that lack statements backed by medical research or describe their own personal experiences. The bill would also enact reporting requirements on payments made by drug manufacturers to health care providers, telehealth firms and social media influencers The bill was first reported on by The Wall Street Journal, whose reporting was part of what spurred the drafting of the legislation, according to Senate sources who spoke with the outlet. In February, Durbin and Braun called on the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) to crack down on misleading social media ads for prescription drugs. “Studies show that patients are more likely to ask their provider for a particular medication and to receive a prescription if the patient has seen a direct-to-consumer (DTC) advertisement for the drug. This can inflate demand for medications that may not be clinically appropriate, or for which alternative interventions may be available,” the senators wrote in a letter to the agency. They noted at the time that the FDA had not updated its guidance on drug promotion over social media in a decade. While the FDA regulates direct-to-consumer prescription drug advertisements distributed across television, radio and print, the agency has faced criticisms for not paying the same level of attention to advertisements made on websites and social media platforms.

Bottom Line: American Heart Association lobbies up for food as medicine effort - The American Heart Association hired Lewis-Burke Associates to lobby on a range of strategy, research and funding issues related to food as medicine, or the integration of the use of healthy foods into the health care space to help prevent, manage or treat certain conditions. The lobbyist on the account is Dominique Carter, former assistant director for agricultural sciences, innovation and workforce at the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy and agricultural science adviser at the Department of Agriculture. The Wildlife Society hired Eventide Strategies to lobby on issues related to natural resources, climate, wildlife health and federal funding for conservation. The lobbyist on the account is Christy Plumer, former staff director of the Senate Environment and Public Works Subcommittee on Fisheries, Water, and Wildlife. The National Park Conservation Association, a nonprofit that advocates for the protection and enhancement of the National Park System, hired Carmen Group Incorporated to lobby on issues related to national parks and public lands in the annual defense authorization bill. Longtime lobbyist and Carmen Group founder David Carmen is one of the lobbyists on the account.

Democrats to hold hearing on Supreme Court’s presidential immunity decision -- Senate Judiciary Committee Chair Dick Durbin (D-Ill.) on Monday announced his panel will hold a hearing on the Supreme Court’s controversial 6-3 ruling giving former President Trump broad immunity from prosecution for crimes related to his official acts as president. Democratic lawmakers have seethed for weeks over the court’s conservative majority’s ruling in July, which dealt a major setback to special counsel Jack Smith’s prosecution against Trump for obstructing the certification of President Biden’s 2020 election victory. On Monday, Durbin announced the Senate Judiciary Committee will take action later this month to highlight what Democrats say could be the far-reaching consequences of the ruling, announcing a hearing date of Sept. 24. “Senate Judiciary Committee is holding a full committee hearing on the ramifications of the ruling from the Supreme Court’s right-wing supermajority in the Donald Trump immunity case on September 24,” Durbin announced. “Congress can’t turn a blind eye to the dangers of the Donald Trump immunity decision by the Supreme Court. We’re going to highlight the blaring dangers of this far-right ruling for the American people,” he said in a statement posted on the social platform X. Liberal Justice Ketanji Brown Jackson has warned the court’s conservatives placed the president of the United States above other Americans in applying criminal laws and created in essence a two-tier justice system. Brown in a recent interview with CBS “Sunday Morning” said she was “concerned” the court’s ruling has treated “one individual under one set of circumstances when we have a criminal justice system that had ordinarily treated everyone the same.” Democrats on the Judiciary Committee blasted the ruling when it came down in July. Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse (D-R.I.) at the time warned granting Trump immunity for any crimes related to official acts would deprive the American people of knowing whether Trump is guilty of attempting to overturn the last election before voting in November’s presidential election. “The far-right radicals on the Court have essentially made the President a monarch above the law, the Founding Fathers’ greatest fear,” he said.

Melania Trump questions account of assassination attempt on Trump: ‘There is definitely more to this story.’ - Melania Trump is questioning officials’ accounts of the assassination attempt on her husband, former President Donald Trump, saying “we need to uncover the truth” and “there is definitely more to this story.” In a new video released on the former first lady’s social media account, Melania Trump says the July 13 shooting in Pennsylvania that left one person dead and the former president with a wound to his ear was a “horrible, distressing experience.” “Now, the silence around it feels heavy. I can’t help but wonder why didn’t law enforcement officials arrest the shooter before the speech? There is definitely more to this story. And we need to uncover the truth,” Melania Trump says. The 20-year-old shooter was able to fire off multiple rounds from a nearby rooftop before he was killed by law enforcement officers. It is the first time the former first lady has spoken about the shooting on camera. She released a lengthy statement after the attack thanking Secret Service agents and law enforcement who protected her husband and calling on Americans to “ascend above the hate.” “America, the fabric of our gentle nation is tattered, but our courage and common sense must ascend and bring us back together as one,” she wrote in a statement. The former first lady’s latest statement comes as conspiracies and misinformation have swirled around the shooter and the attack. Federal investigators have combed through the shooter’s background and online history but have yet to identify a motive. In the aftermath of the shooting, Congress moved to open investigations into the communication and security breakdown that led to the gunman being able to fire a barrage of deadly shots from a rooftop near the stage where Trump was speaking. Rep. Mike Kelly (R-Pa.), who chairs the House’s bipartisan task force on the attempted shooting, hopes to hold the first public hearing on their investigation in the coming weeks. The former head of the Secret Service, Kimberly Cheatle, and the agency came under intense scrutiny after the shooting and she later resigned. Want more POLITICO? Download our mobile app to save stories, get notifications and more. In iOS or Android. Melania Trump is currently promoting a memoir, “Melania,” that will be released by Skyhorse Publishing on Oct. 8. She has largely been absent from the campaign trail, although she appeared but did not speak on the last night of the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee.

Ten former top military officials call Trump ‘a danger,’ back Harris - Ten retired U.S. military generals and admirals are backing Vice President Harris and warning against picking former President Trump in the upcoming election, according to a new letter. In the National Security Leaders for America letter, first reported by Axios, the former officers write that Harris is the only presidential candidate in the race who is fit to serve as commander in chief, while painting Trump as “a danger to our national security and our democracy.” Harris “has demonstrated her ability to take on the most difficult national security challenges in the Situation Room and on the international stage, from rallying our allies against Russia’s brutal invasion of Ukraine to standing shoulder to shoulder with our allies in the Indo-Pacific against China’s provocative actions, to advancing U.S. leadership on space and artificial intelligence,” they write. They add that Harris is a staunch supporter of service members, veterans and their families, while Trump “continually disrespects those who serve in uniform, including wounded warriors, prisoners of war, and those who have made the ultimate sacrifice.” Included on the letter are three four-stars officers, Adm. Steve Abbot; former deputy Homeland Security adviser to President George W. Bush, Gen. Lloyd W. Newton; and Gen. Larry R. Ellis. The former military officers highlight the chaotic 2021 U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan, placing the blame on Trump’s shoulders for leaving President Biden and Harris with no plans to execute a withdrawal after his administration made a deal with the Taliban to pull U.S. service members from the country. “This chaotic approach severely hindered the Biden-Harris Administration’s ability to execute the most orderly withdrawal possible and put our service members and our allies at risk,” they write. Trump and House Republicans have made the Afghanistan withdrawal a main point of attack on Harris, with the House Foreign Affairs Committee this week releasing a report criticizing Biden for a rushed effort taken against the counsel of allies and advisers that led to the unnecessary deaths of 13 American service members in a suicide bombing. The report, released after the three-year anniversary of the U.S. exit, highlight’s Harris’s involvement in the decision. It notes that she “appears to have been working in lockstep” with Biden, but offers limited discussion of any specific role she played in the planning or execution of the pullout. Trump also tried to highlight Harris’s inclusion in the Afghanistan withdrawal at a campaign stop at Arlington National Cemetery, visiting the grave of a Marine killed in the suicide attack. That visit ignited criticism from the Harris campaign and some veterans after cemetery officials said Trump had violated rules prohibiting election-related activities at the cemetery.

Dick Cheney is a Horrible Human Being, and His Endorsement Should Be Seen as a Negative by Lambert StretherStarting with the headline: “Harris ‘honored’ by endorsement from Republican Dick Cheney.” For those who came in late: On Inauguration Day, January 20, 2001, after Justice Antonin Scalia had selected former Texas Republican Governor, dry drunk, ritually branded Yalie, and Christianist George W. Bush as President in Bush v. Gore (“good for one time only“), the country’s Vice President became former Secretary of Defense and Halliburton CEO Dick Cheney. (After Bush was nominated, he had set up a selection committee for Vice President, chaired by Dick Cheney, and, perhaps surprisingly, ended up picking Cheney himself.) 2018’s Oscar-winning Vice (with Christian Bale as Dick Cheney) despite — or perhaps because of — being a “political satire black comedy” gives a reasonably accurate high-level description of what happened next. From the Summary: The story of Dick Cheney, an unassuming bureaucratic Washington insider, who quietly wielded immense power as Vice President to George W. Bush, reshaping the country and the globe in ways that are still felt today. (Cheney has been described as Bush’s Chief Operating Officer, though Cheney himself concedes his influence waned in Bush’s second term). And the Synopsis: The film returns to the aftermath of the September 11 attacks, as Cheney and Rumsfeld maneuver to initiate and then preside over the US invasions of Afghanistan and Iraq, resulting in the killing of civilians and the torture of prisoners. As the War on Terror mounts, Cheney continues to struggle with persistent heart attacks. The film also covers various events from his vice presidency, including his endorsement of the Unitary executive theory, the Plame affair, the accidental shooting of Harry Whittington, and tensions between the Cheney sisters over same-sex marriage. Cheney’s actions are shown to lead to thousands of deaths and the rise of the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant, resulting in him receiving record-low approval ratings by the end of the Bush administration. In this post, for those curious as to why Harris would be “honored” by Cheney’s endorsement, I want to dig a little bit deeper into a few of the more aromatic episodes of Cheney’s tenure, which started just prior to the emergence of the blogosphere. Here’s hoping none of the work done in those days has succumbed to link rot! In order of increasing damage to the country’s institutions and global standing, I will cover the Harry Whittington shooting, Cheney’s adoption of torture as a tool of statecraft, Cheney’s role in fomenting the Iraq War debacle using what we would today call disinformation, and the billions gushing to his former company, Halliburton. All this stuff was difficult and horrid for us “foul-mouthed bloggers of the left” to disentangle at the time, and to see Cheney “honored”… Well, it’s a bit much. Anyhow, here’s a photo of Cheney in case you want to hang it on your kitchen refrigerator or something:

New poll delivers warning signals to Kamala President Harris ahead of debate - A string of recent polls is delivering warning signs for Vice President Harris ahead of the critical presidential debate Tuesday evening. A New York Times/Siena College poll released Sunday showed former President Trump holding a 1-point lead nationally, suggesting the Harris honeymoon as the Democratic nominee could be coming to a close. It showed tight races in the seven battleground states, signaling the race for the White House could go in either direction. It also showed that while 90 percent of voters said they knew everything they need to know about Trump, a smaller 71 percent said they know everything they need to know about Harris. That suggests the vice president could have more at stake during the debate, when one of the largest audiences of the campaign season will tune in to consider their choices. Democrats, who have been through a roller-coaster of emotions after President Biden’s disastrous debate, his exit from the race and Harris’s entry, are now being confronted with polls that suggest Trump has an enduring strength, no matter his opponent. “We still have some race to run, but here’s the thing that worries me: We’re up against a guy who is a convicted felon, he was a terrible president and he continues to be a terrible human, and this race is still tight as a tick,” said one Democratic strategist. “We never got the expected bounce out of the convention, and I think some folks expected to have a larger advantage going into the final stretch of the campaign.” Other Democrats said the latest polls could also help Harris and motivate her party. “She’s right to call herself an underdog,” said Anthony Coley, a Democratic strategist who served in the Biden administration until last year. “I’m glad this poll came out. It’s a gift to Democrats …and it’s a wake-up call in many ways.” “Early voting is starting in some states, and we don’t have a lot of time and we’re not exactly where we want to be, as the Times poll shows.” Nate Silver, the renowned polling analyst, wrote in his Substack newsletter on Monday that the New York Times/Siena survey reflected a shift in momentum from Harris to Trump. He warned that Harris could face obstacles in the final weeks of the campaign as Republicans continue to label her as a progressive while highlighting her previous positions on fracking, immigration and health care. The Times poll showed 44 percent of those surveyed said Harris is too progressive — showing Republicans have had some success in defining her — while only 32 percent of those surveyed said Trump is too conservative. Silver said Harris “blew one big opportunity to tack to the center with her selection of Tim Walz rather than Josh Shapiro: that a tiny minority of progressives objected to Shapiro was an argument in Shapiro’s favor, if anything.” “I think Walz was a decent enough pick on his own merits, but given an opportunity to offer a tangible signal of the direction her presidency was headed, she reverted to 2019 mode,” Silver wrote.

Kamala Harris missed 'big opportunity' by not picking Shapiro as VP, Nate Silver says --Pollster Nate Silver says Vice President Harris missed a major chance to pick up voters in the center when she passed over Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro (D) as her running mate. Harris “blew one big opportunity to tack to the center with her selection of [Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz (D)] rather than Josh Shapiro: that a tiny minority of progressives objected to Shapiro was an argument in Shapiro’s favor, if anything,” Silver wrote in a post on his website.Shapiro and Walz, alongside Arizona Sen. Mark Kelly (D), rose to the top of the “veepstakes” as Harris weighed who to bring on to her fast-tracked bid after President Biden dropped out of the race.Walz, who snagged viral clips labeling Republican rivals as “weird,” has been looked at as aboost to Harris in reaching the Midwest and the middle class. The pick has also energized progressives, after Walz shifted to the left during his governorship.But Silver argued that Shapiro, who has faced criticism from progressives, could have been a help to Harris, who the pollster contended is “limited by her own past progressive policy positions.”Nearly half of voters in a new New York Times/Siena College poll, he noted, said Harris seems “too liberal/progressive.”Picking Walz showed the vice president’s “counterproductive tendency toward risk aversion,” Silver said.“I think Walz was a decent enough pick on his own merits, but given an opportunity to offer a tangible signal of the direction her presidency was headed, she reverted to 2019 mode,” he wrote, referring to Harris’s campaign in the 2020 cycle, during which she notably backed several progressive policies. She’s faced scrutiny about reversals on issues including “Medicare for All” and banning fracking, both of which she no longer supports. The shifts have come into the spotlight as she courts moderate voters in a close race with former President Trump. Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) said over the weekend that he still considers Harris a progressive, despite her pivot toward the center on some issues. He argued they still share the same goals, such as reaching universal health care and addressing climate change. Silver’s latest commentary comes just after the Times/Siena poll found former President Trump up 1 point over Harris among likely voters, within the poll’s 3-point margin of error and largely unchanged from a survey taken right after the Democrats’ ticket switch up..

Harris and Trump's tense first debate: 5 takeaways --Vice President Harris and former President Trump squared off in a high-stakes first debate in Philadelphia on Tuesday as the polls show the rivals neck-and-neck ahead of November. Just weeks after a poor debate performance led to President Biden’s historic exit from the presidential race, Harris delivered a sharp showing on the ABC News stage, baiting and sparring with Trump over abortion, race, the economy and more. The tense event marked the rivals’ first ever face-to-face meeting, and Harris has already challenged Trump to a second showdown. Here are five takeaways from Tuesday night:

• Trump takes the bait. Going into the debate, Harris was expected to prod Trump into losing his composure. The strategy appeared to have worked. Harris immediately made an impression by walking across the stage to shake Trump’s hand, something that has not been seen in recent presidential debates involving Trump. The former president appeared visibly irritated throughout the forum, at many points refusing to look at his rival. Harris deployed several zingers against Trump, saying he “was fired by 81 million people” and that the Biden administration has “cleaned up Donald Trump’s mess.” The vice president even hit Trump over crowd sizes at his rallies, which Trump was quick to hit back on. “I’m gonna invite you to attend one of Donald Trump’s rallies because it’s a really interesting thing to watch,” Harris said. “He talks about fictional characters like Hannibal Lecter. He will talk about windmills call cancer,” she continued. “And what you will also notice is people start leaving his rallies early out of exhaustion and boredom. And I will tell you the one thing you will not hear him talk about, is you.” The attack clearly rattled Trump. “She said people start leaving. People don’t go to her rallies,” Trump said. “So she can’t talk about that. People don’t leave my rallies.” Throughout the night, Trump was visibly angry, adding to the sense that Harris was getting under her skin.Those optics were clearly advantageous for Harris.
• Harris delivers sharp performance. While Trump was visibly rattled during much of the debate, Harris delivered a consistently confident and composed performance. She drew a stark contrast with Trump, not only by keeping her cool but also by positioning herself as the new generational leader. “Clearly, I am not Joe Biden, and I am certainly not Donald Trump. What I do offer is a new generation of leadership for our country,” Harris said. Harris was grilled on several issues that are seen as weak spots for her, including immigration and foreign policy, but generally gave solid answers. The vice president accused Trump of tanking a bipartisan border deal last year, saying “he’d prefer to run on a problem instead of fixing a problem.” The Harris campaign clearly thought their candidate won, promptly calling for a second debate in a statement released minutes after the forum wrapped. “Under the bright lights, the American people got to see the choice they will face this fall at the ballot box: between moving forward with Kamala Harris, or going backwards with Trump,” said Jen O’Malley Dillon, Harris’s campaign co-chair. Underscoring Harris’s successful performance, pop superstar Taylor Swift publicly endorsed her on Instagram just minutes after the event ended. The night could hardly have ended better for the vice president.
• Trump refuses to commit to vetoing national abortion ban. Trump has said he wouldn’t sign an abortion ban, but he refused to commit to vetoing such a proposal if elected in November. “As far as the abortion ban, no, I’m not in favor of abortion ban, but it doesn’t matter, because this issue has now been taken over by the states,” Trump said. The former president has bragged that he was able to “kill” Roe v. Wade when the Supreme Court’s overturned federal protections for the procedure two years ago. Pressed on whether he’d veto such a ban, Trump argued he “won’t have to,” arguing it’s “just talk” and shifting his answer into a swing at Harris over student loans. One of the moderators, Linsey Davis, urged Trump toward a yes-or-no answer, noting that his running mate, Ohio Sen. J.D. Vance, said last month Trump would shoot down a proposal if it came to his desk. “I didn’t discuss it with JD, in all fairness. … I don’t mind if he has a certain view,” Trump said, dodging a direct answer. “Look, we don’t have to discuss it because she’d never be able to get it.” Harris, on the other hand, slammed Trump over abortion, one of his biggest political vulnerabilities. “The government, and Donald Trump certainly, should not be telling a woman what to do with her body,” Harris said.
• Right goes after moderators over fact-checking. ABC’s moderators offered real-time fact-checking on key claims during the contentious debate, a notable change from June’s Trump-Biden debate on CNN. While CNN’s moderators were heavily criticized for letting the candidates chatter unchecked, Davis and David Muir stepped in several times as they steered the conversation. Muir pushed back on Trump’s unfounded claim that immigrants in Ohio were eating their pets. After Trump claimed without evidence that Harris’s running mate supports “execution after birth,” Davis quickly noted that “there is no state in this country where it is legal to kill a baby after it is born.” And when asked about his previous comments that he lost the 2020 election “by a whisker,” Trump claimed he was being sarcastic. “I didn’t detect the sarcasm,” Muir responded. Conservatives online wasted no time in criticizing Muir and Davis. Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) said the moderators “might as well be on the DNC payroll, while conservative media personality Ben Shapiro said they were “a disgrace to their profession.”
• Trump stumbles with ‘concepts of a plan’. Trump delivered one of the night’s most viral moments when he said he had “concepts of a plan” to follow up on his failed efforts to repeal ObamaCare.“We are working on things. We’re going to do it, and we’re going to replace it,” Trump said, when asked whether he has a plan to make good on the efforts in a potential second term. The former president has long criticized the health care law, signed by President Obama in 2010, but Republican efforts to repeal it during his White House tenure fell short. He’s since saidhe’d keep the law “unless we can do something much better.” “I have concepts of a plan. I’m not president right now,” Trump said on the debate stage, when pressed to a yes-or-no on whether he has a plan. “I would only change it if we come up with something that’s better and less expensive. And there are concepts and options we have to do that, and you’ll be hearing about it in the not-too-distant future.” Across the stage, Harris stressed she’d want to “maintain and grow” the Affordable Care Act, noting its resilience through repeated GOP attempts to roll it back, touting her work with the Biden administration to strengthen the law, allow Medicare to negotiate drug prices and cap the cost of insulin.

Harris to Trump: Putin would ‘eat you for lunch’ -Vice President Harris slammed former President Trump during their debate Tuesday night, saying that Russian President Vladimir Putin would have taken Kyiv if Trump was currently in office, and would “eat you for lunch” if Trump returned to the White House. Harris said at the debate, hosted by ABC News in Philadelphia, Pa., that if Trump were president, Putin would take Ukraine and threaten Poland next. “Why don’t you tell the 800,000 Polish Americans right here in Pennsylvania how quickly you would give up for the sake of favor and what you think is a friendship with what is known to be a dictator, who would eat you for lunch,” she said. Harris also hit Trump for his friendly relations with other dictators and autocrats. “The alliances we have around the world are dependent on our ability to look out for our friends and not favor our enemies because you adore strongmen instead of caring about democracy,” she said. “And that is very much what is at stake here. “The president of the United States is commander in chief and the American people have a right to rely on an American president who understands the significance of America’s role and responsibility in terms of ensuring there is stability and ensuring we stand up for our principles and not sell them for the benefit of personal flattery,” she added. Trump and Harris sparred over the Ukraine war during the debate. Trump repeated his claim that he would end the war before he gets into office. He repeatedly declined to say whether he wanted Ukraine to win the war. “I want to get the war settled,” he said, claiming both Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky respect him. “That is a war that is dying to be settled, I will get it settled even before I become president.” Harris said Trump would just “give it up,” referring to Ukraine, to end the war. “And that’s not who we are as Americans,” she said. “If Donald Trump were president, Putin would be sitting in Kyiv right now.” Trump argued the world is “blowing up” under the Biden administration, and he accused Harris and President Biden of failing to negotiate with Russia before Moscow invaded Ukraine in 2022, and not talking to Putin over the past two years to seek an end to the war. “Everything they said was weak and stupid, they said the wrong things,” he said. “That war should have never started.”

Harris gets under Trump's skin during debate, over and over again - Kamala Harris set a hook. And Donald Trump took the bait — over and over again. In the first face-to-face showdown between the two presidential candidates, she taunted him for his crowd sizes, his past bankruptcies, his inherited wealth and more. Mocking Trump’s stature on the global stage, Harris claimed that world leaders laugh at him — a barb aimed squarely at his personal insecurities.The result left Trump on the defensive — and struggling to land hits even as the discussion turned to territory friendlier for him like immigration and the economy.“I’m not signing a ban,” Trump said, as he vacillated between shrugging off Harris’ attacks on abortion and defending the Supreme Court for overturningRoe v. Wade. As for Project 2025, the ultra-conservative agenda that Harris has portrayed as a blueprint for a Trump presidency, he said, “I don’t want to read it.”One of the most striking moments came when the moderators pivoted to Trump’s favorite topic — immigration. Harris hit him for killing the bipartisan border deal and then trolled Trump over his rallies, belittling the size of his crowds and quickly shifting attention off of a central political vulnerability. The Republican — who allies had counseled to remain calm and under control — couldn’t help himself: “People don’t leave my rallies. We have the biggest rallies, the most incredible rallies in the history of politics,” Trump insisted, as Harris looked on, smirking and shaking her head.The early exchanges quickly set the tone for the much-anticipated debate, in which Harris moved to take command on a number of topics. While Trump started out measured and collected — reminiscent of his face-off with President Joe Biden — he appeared increasingly frustrated as Harris needled him. “Talk about extreme,” Harris said, after Trump gave an extended recounting of baseless stories about immigrants in Springfield, Ohio, eating household pets that have circulated in right-wing circles and among conspiracy theorists.Tuesday marked the first face-to face-meeting for Harris and Trump, in what may be the only time voters will hear from the candidates in a side-by-side match-up before Election Day. The two candidates, battling it out in a race that began just seven weeks ago, remain deadlocked just days before early voting begins in some key states.The mics were muted Tuesday night when the candidates weren’t speaking, a point of tension in recent weeks as the Harris campaign pushed for mics to be unmuted for the entirety of the debate. Harris aides warned in recent days that the format disadvantaged the vice president, shielding viewers from hearing Trump’s direct exchanges with Harris and denying the former prosecutor the ability to fully cross-examine Trump.But the muted mics didn’t appear to hamper Harris, who used her response time to briefly fact check Trump and respond to his attacks. Harris’ body language was also notable from the moment she stepped on stage, walking to the former president’s podium to ensure they shook hands. And she often looked at Trump as she spoke, even as the former president avoided eye contact with her.“One does not have to abandon their faith or deeply held beliefs to agree the government, and Donald Trump certainly, should not be telling a woman what to do with her body,” Harris said at one point, staring directly at Trump as she described individual instances of women who faced health emergencies because they could not access abortion. Harris’ strategy was effective in putting Trump on the defensive throughout much of the 90-minute faceoff, but it did come at the cost of leaving her with less time to introduce herself to unfamiliar voters and to lay out her policy vision. Trump also continuously managed to get the last word on each topic, often interjecting when the moderators tried to move on. Just two months from Election Day, the stakes were high for both candidates, as Trump has struggled to calibrate a message against a new opponent. And Harris, who has been forced to introduce herself to voters on a truncated timeline, has mostly avoided unscripted moments on the campaign trail, while coming into Tuesday night’s showdown with far less experience than Trump on a debate stage.Trump targeted Harris early on over inflation, pointing to the sharp rise in prices for groceries over the last three years, which voters have consistently ranked a top concern. He also tried to lash her to Biden on a range of topics, accusing her at one point of simply taking his agenda and making it her own.But that strategy eventually backfired, as Trump became more focused on attacking Biden than the opponent right in front of him — often saving his most cutting remarks for a president he denigrated as a poor commander in chief who was now spending “all his time on a beach.”“First of all, it’s important to remind the former president, you’re not running against Joe Biden,” Harris said. “You’re running against me.”Harris declined to break with Biden on any substantive policy matters. But she cast herself as the fresh, unifying candidate in the race, in an effort to appeal to an electorate that has signaled it’s eager for change in November. She jumped at opportunities to portray Trump, by contrast, as a symbol of the divisiveness of the past eight years, seizing in particular on past episodes where he questioned her race.“I think it’s a tragedy that we have someone who wants to be president who has consistently, over the course of his career, attempted to use race to divide the American people,” Harris said. “We don’t want this kind of approach that is just constantly trying to divide us — and especially by race.”The approach often left Trump searching for a counterpunch, abandoning his efforts early on to advance a methodical case against Harris in favor of a rapid succession of one-line attacks on unrelated issues.

Harris, Trump clash on taxes in debate light on economics — Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump argued over their various tax plans in a debate Tuesday evening that focused heavily on social issues like abortion and lightly on economic issues. Harris touted her child tax plan and proposal for assistance for first-time homebuyers. Her plans, specifically, include a $25,000 subsidy for first-time homebuyers, a $65,000 child benefit for parents with newborns and a $50,000 tax deduction for startups and entrepreneurs. "We know that we have a shortage of homes, and the cost of housing is too expensive for far too many people," Harris said. "We know that young families need support to raise their children." She also attacked Trump's plans to extend taxes on wealthy Americans and corporations, as laid out in the tax bill he championed when he was president. "When you look at his economic plan, it's all about tax breaks for the richest people," Harris said. "I am offering what I described as an opportunity economy." Trump, meanwhile, defended his plan to raise tariffs on foreign goods. "Other countries are going to finally, after 75 years, pay us back for all that we've done for the world," Trump said. "And the tariff will be substantial." Trump also attacked the Biden administration's record on the economy, tying it specifically to immigration and the border. "We have millions of people pouring into our country, from prisons and jails, from mental institutions and insane asylums," he said. "They're destroying our country, they're dangerous," he said later. "They're at the highest level of criminality, and we have to get them out, we have to get them out fast. I created one of the greatest economies in the history of our country." He also repeated attacks on inflation during the Biden administration. "I built one of the greatest economies in the history of the world, and I'm going to build it again," he said. "It's going to be bigger, better and stronger, but they're destroying our economy. They have no idea what a good economy is." Harris and Trump had very different views on the economic impacts of his tariff plan. Harris said it would "actually result" in a sales tax increase for the middle class. Trump continued to assert, falsely, that foreign governments, not U.S. importers, would pay the tariff, whereas Harris pointed to multiple studies that show that the duties drive up costs for American consumers. Harris, in response to a question about Trump's previous comments about her ethnicity, referenced Trump's history of being sued by the Department of Justice for Fair Housing Act violations in the 1970s. "Let's remember how Donald Trump started. … He owned buildings and he was investigated because he refused to rent property to Black families," she said. Most mentions of housing and economic policies took place in response to the moderators' first question of the debate.

Donald Trump addresses climate change by returning to tariffs -- Former President Trump responded to a question about climate change by returning to the idea of tariffs to protect domestic industries from competition with China.He vowed to keep inexpensive and emissions-reducing Chinese electrical vehicles out of American markets with cumbersome tariffs, thereby protecting American industries and jobs.“We’ll put tariffs on those cars so they can’t come into our country, because they will kill the United Auto Workers and any autoworker, whether it’s in Detroit or South Carolina,” he said.The United Auto Workers (UAW) union has been a politically significant organization over the course of the Biden presidency, both for developing new strike tactics during their strike at the Big Three automakers last year and because President Biden joined their picket line, becoming the first sitting president to do so.Trump said manufacturing jobs were “all leaving” the country, but the data doesn’t really support this assertion. It is notable, however, that despite a huge surge in manufacturing construction investment spurred by major legislation including the recent infrastructure law, the CHIPS and Science Act and Inflation Reduction Act, manufacturing jobs have not seen a comparable rise relative to historical levels.

House Republicans bemoan Donald Trump debate performance against Kamala Harris -- House Republicans are bemoaning former President Trump’s performance in the first — and potentially only — debate against Vice President Harris, acknowledging that the Democratic nominee successfully got under her GOP opponent’s skin. Several times throughout the more than 90-minute debate in Philadelphia, Harris appeared to try and bait Trump with attacks on matters that hit close to home — the size of his rallies, the magnitude of his family fortune and world leaders “laughing” at him — in an effort to thwart his composed posture. Some House Republicans say she succeeded. “I’m just sad,” one House Republican who is supportive of Trump told The Hill. “She knew exactly where to cut to get under his skin. Just overall disappointing that he isn’t being more composed like the first debate.” “The road just got very narrow,” they added. “This is not good.” A second House Republican, who requested anonymity to discuss the sensitive topic, said “many” in the GOP conference were “disappointed” that Trump could not stay on message throughout the debate. “She talks to us like toddlers but is doing a good job provoking him. He [is] right on policy but can’t keep to a message,” the lawmaker said. “Many are disappointed he couldn’t stay focused or land a punch. Not sure much changes but it wasn’t a good performance.”“Lots of missed opportunities so far,” a third House Republican told The Hill in a text message during the debate. “It’s not devastating – but it’s not good.”Thursday night’s debate was a pivotal moment in the 2024 election cycle, marking the first time Trump and Harris had met in person and the first head-to-head matchup between the two nominees.Trump, for his part, said he believed he put on a strong performance. The former president told Fox News’s Sean Hannity after the event “I had a good time, I think it was our best debate ever,” before tearing into the moderators, ABC News’s David Muir and Linsey Davis.“We had three against one,” Trump said.A number of his supporters on Capitol Hill echoed that sentiment. Rep. Nicole Malliotakis (R-N.Y.), for example, wrote on X: “Trump doing very well & he is right on policy but this debate is skewed!” and House GOP Conference Chair Elise Stefanik (N.Y.) dubbed his performance“strong.” But in a sign of potential concern within the campaign, Trump appeared in the spin room after the debate to deliver the same positive message to reporters, an unconventional move for a major-party candidate. And he is now balking at the idea of a second debate. The Harris campaign called for another presidential debate against Trump almost immediately after the first one concluded. Trump, however, said his team would take the prospect under consideration. “She wants to do another one because she was beaten tonight. I don’t know if we’re going to do another one,” Trump said in the spin room. “She wants a second debate because she lost tonight, very badly… we’ll think about that.”While Trump kept a positive face publicly, some House Republicans are privately conceding that the former president’s performance could have been stronger.A fourth House Republican railed against ABC News and Harris for their performances Tuesday night, criticizing the moderators for not fact checking Harris and calling the Democratic nominee “extremely scripted.” But the lawmaker also said Trump’s showing suffered “missed opportunities.”“I think he is all over the map and has missed opportunities to hammer her record,” the House Republican said. “He’s made strong points on the economy, immigration, and foreign policy, but it’s been disjointed at times.”“Rough start,” said a fifth House Republican. “Moderators could be better.”The attempts by Harris to bait Trump during the debate emerged as some of the most memorable moments of the evening’s event, with Trump appearing to become agitated by her comments.At one point, Harris invited viewers to attend one of Trump’s rallies, claiming that attendees leave early “out of exhaustion and boredom.” The comment appeared to strike a nerve with Trump, who responded “we have the biggest rallies, the most incredible rallies in the history of politics,” before citing a conspiracy theory that Haitian immigrants in Springfield, Ohio, are eating pets.The false allegations drew national headlines after Sen. JD Vance (R-Ohio), the former president’s running mate, amplified the incorrect claim on X. The tangent by Trump prompted a fact check by Muir.

Harris won the debate — and it wasn't close – POLITICO - Kamala Harris showed up — and then some. The vice president’s performance against Donald Trump, in which she repeatedly baited him and knocked him off balance, was a far cry from President Joe Biden’s disastrous June debate. And it gave Democrats the role reversal they had hoped for after their switch at the top of the ticket.The two candidates entered the debate deadlocked in the polls — and in a deeply polarized nation, the race is still likely to remain close. But voters got their first look at Harris going toe-to-toe with Trump, and she did more than hold her own. We asked five POLITICO campaign reporters and editors for their takeaways from the Harris-Trump debate: Who had the better night?

• Steve Shepard: All you have to do is check the sound levels on Trump’s microphone from the start of the debate to its end to see that Harris came out ahead. A debate that began with a question that should favor Trump — are Americans better off economically than they were four years ago — quickly turned against the former president. Even when the debate returned to the friendly terrain of immigration, Harris set a trap for Trump that had him talking about the size of crowds at his campaign rallies and fever-swamp tales of abducted pets in short order — and at an increasing volume that made it clear he knew things were not going his way.
• Elena Schneider: Harris won this debate. Her goals for it were clear: Draw a contrast with Trump by casting herself as the change candidate who could move voters into the future. Throughout the debate, Harris spoke directly into the camera, urging voters to “turn the page” on Trump. The former president, meanwhile, primarily focused on the litigating the past, including an extended back-and-forth over whether he won the 2020 election. (He did not.)
• Adam Wren: Harris won — and it wasn’t close. She showed up as her prosecutorial self, effectively putting Trump in the witness stand throughout much of the debate. Democrats have to be downright giddy, particularly over her extended remarks on abortion — an issue she’s been talking about around the country since the fall of Roe. And it showed tonight.
• Eugene Daniels: I’m going to shock you here: Harris. And honestly, she probably had the best night of any of Trump’s debate opponents since he began running for president in 2015. The Harris team was clear she wanted to bait him to get him to react in a way that suburban voters would be turned off by. She did it first by invoking his rally crowd sizes, then his criminal charges, on the Central Park Five, and over and over again. She got in his head from then on. Democrats watching texted me that this is exactly the reason they wanted the switch from Biden to Harris: a candidate that could actually make the case against Trump.
• Lisa Kashinsky: Another thing you can check besides the sound levels, Steve — what Trump’s allies are posting on X. Lots of claims of this being a “3 on 1” fight floating around. Trump and his backers went into this debate casting doubt on whether ABC’s moderators would treat him fairly. If they felt the debate was going his way, they wouldn’t still be saying that.
• Shepard: This was a very close race before the debate, and it’s likely to be a close race a week from now. But Harris did clear an important bar. A disappointing debate performance threatened to reverse her standing after six weeks of momentum. That didn’t happen.
• Wren: Given how tonight went, I would be surprised if there’s another debate — even though the Harris campaign said afterward she is “ready for a second debate. Is Donald Trump?” Trump might want a mulligan, but it’s difficult to see how his advisers would want to go through something like that again.
• Daniels: Steve is right, the race is going to stay close until the very end. Harris went into this debate needing to prove that she could be unscripted, and she did that tonight. Does it change the election fully in her favor? Probably not. But it keeps people from running away from her.
• For Trump, everything he did tonight is what voters are probably used to for him, whether they like it or not. For the MAGA faithful, nothing changed. But I’m not sure he pulled anyone who was on the fence into his camp, which means they both have a lot more work to do.
• Kashinsky: Honestly, Taylor Swift endorsing Harris after the debate might do more to change the trajectory of this race than anything that happened during it.
• Schneider: Swift didn’t call Trump the Smallest Man Who Ever Lived, but she might as well have.

What’s the one moment each candidate will regret, and what will we remember about this debate a year from now?

• Schneider: What might go viral? I’m already seeing the memes of Harris’ facial expressions — a bemused smile, raised eyebrows, a hand under her chin — all over social media. Yes, Harris’ team was worried about the muted microphones, but they ultimately didn’t matter. Through body language, her decision to force a handshake with Trump and snippets of unmuted moments, Harris communicated all she needed about her opponent — underlining the moments when she baited him into his more off-the-rails comments. Trump’s team, I’m sure, will regret that the former president didn’t more forcefully link Harris to Biden in the first 30 minutes of the debate. Harris’ team, however, may wish she’d more effectively pushed back on her policy flip-flops, as one of her key vulnerabilities is swing voters seeing her as more liberal.
• Wren: I’ll remember Trump engaging in the debunked conspiracy of animal eating in Springfield, Ohio — a low water mark of this conspiracy laden era. It is objectively a falsehood, criticized as misleading and racist, that Haitian immigrants have been abducting and eating pets. Town officials say that is not the case. Even his own running mate, the junior senator from the state — appeared to at least partially back away from the fabrication earlier in the day. And while we’re talking about Vance: He had somewhat of a rough night, with Trump essentially conceding they had different views on abortion (“I didn’t discuss it with JD, in all fairness, and I don’t mind if he has a certain view...”) Vance’s team have gone to great lengths to smooth out some of his statements on abortion since his 2022 Ohio Senate bid.
• Shepard: It’s hard to compare a head-to-head debate to the 10-candidate pile-ups that characterized the race for the Democratic nomination in 2020. But this was clearly Harris’ best debate performance of her career, without any clear missteps.Meanwhile, one of Trump’s advantages in this race had been that voters didn’t see him as a riskier choice than Biden or Harris: Biden because of his age, and Harris because she was unproven. In the New York Times/Siena College poll this week, roughly equal percentages of likely voters (52 percent for Harris and 54 percent for Trump) saw each candidate as a “risky choice.”But on a number of occasions — most notably citing television reports about the pet-eating immigrants allegedly overrunning a town in Ohio — Trump underlined some of the attributes that voters don’t like about him, as Harris cleared the bar of reasonableness.It’s hard to drink from a firehose, but Harris might regret leaving some of Trump’s more potent attack lines unanswered, particularly on inflation.
• Kashinsky: The abortion segment was brutal for Trump, and he only made it worse for himself by distancing himself from his own running mate. But if we’re talking about damaging sound bites: Trump saying he only has “concepts of a plan” on health care is one that Democrats can play on loop. In fact, they already are.Both candidates left some key opportunities on the table. Harris could have done more to address concerns about the policy positions she’s changed over the years. And Trump didn’t dig in on one of his key lines of attack — why Harris hasn’t done the things she’s promising during her three years as vice president — until the end of the night.
• Daniels: The abortion back-and-forth is going to play over and over again in ads and in news packages tomorrow morning. It was the first moment when the debate felt like one and you couldn’t find two candidates with more of a contrast on the issue. Harris, the lead on abortion for Democrats for years and Trump who got three Supreme Court picks who knocked down Roe.For Trump’s regrets: I agree with Adam. It was a strange conspiracy theory before the debate and it played out even stranger on the debate stage with Trump going back and forth with David Muir on whether immigrants are eating pets (there’s zero evidence this is happening.)I don’t know if she will regret it, but Harris still left some unanswered questions about positions she’s changed over the years. Trump brought it up over and over, she was asked directly about some of those from Linsey Davis and the folks who still have questions are left with “my values haven’t changed.”

Republicans blame ABC moderators for Trump’s debate performance - POLITICO— Republicans know Donald Trump didn’t win Tuesday’s debate. And they know who to blame: the media.“It was three-on-one. They continued to engage in so-called fact-checking of Donald Trump. They never did that to Kamala Harris,” Sen. Tom Cotton (R-Ark.) told reporters.“You have two moderators there who acted as agents of the Harris campaign,” said David Bossie, a longtime Trump adviser and Republican National Committe member from Maryland.“It was a little outrageous that they would fact-check only one candidate on the fly,” said Tim Murtaugh, who was the communications director for Trump’s 2020 campaign.Trump had been setting the stage for weeks, arguing that the debate would be biased against him. Soon after the debate began, the complaints began rolling in — on social media, at watch parties across the nation — as if on cue: If anyone thought Trump was having a bad debate, it’s because of the media.The posture from Trump’s backers on Tuesday stood in contrast to the June debate against President Joe Biden on CNN, which didn’t have any fact checking and left Trump saying he was treated “very fairly.”Just 40 minutes after Tuesday’s debate ended, Trump himself picked up the charge that he was treated unfairly, an allegation on brand with his long-running critique of the news media as biased.“I thought that was my best Debate, EVER, especially since it was THREE ON ONE!” the GOP nominee for president posted on Truth Social.Trump surrogates and staff in the post-debate spin room echoed the argument.During the course of the 90-minute debate, ABC News’ David Muir and Linsey Davis repeatedly sought to set the candidates — and the viewing public — straight on Trump’s unsubstantiated allegations. Those false claims included the viral accusation that Haitian migrants in Springfield, Ohio, kill and eat pets, the charge that Democratic states allow the killing of infants after birth and Trump’s statement that crime in the country is “through the roof.”Harris’ claims were less far-fetched, and — to Republicans’ displeasure — the moderators didn’t similarly correct her. However, Davis did confront Harris over her flip-flopping on key issues, including fracking and buyback programs for assault weapons. She also challenged her on why the Biden-Harris administration waited until six months before the election to issue executive actions on the border.To Republicans watching, the lopsided fact-checking undermined the legitimacy of the debate and reinforced long-standing beliefs about mainstream media bias against conservatives — and Trump in particular.“They made themselves the story,” Rep. Michael Waltz (R-Fla.) said in the spin room. He criticized the moderators for not fact-checking Harris’ comments on Charlottesville, which he said were taken out of context. He also said Trump’s comments that his loss would result in a “bloodbath,” were intended to be about energy policy and not the election.Trump had repeatedly sought to manage expectations about the debate. Just last week, he insisted at a Fox News town hall that Harris would receive questions in advance, though there was no evidence to back up his claim. The moderators squashed the speculation at the start of Tuesday’s debate by saying neither nominee had seen questions ahead of time.Some journalists covering the news media industry commended Davis’ and Muir’s performance, and Republican pollster Frank Luntz, a Trump critic, posted a kudos on X to the moderators for “covering a wider range of topics than most debates.”A spokesperson for ABC News did not comment about Trump’s attacks on their credibility.At debate watch parties in New York and Florida, Republicans viewed the faceoff as unfairly weighted.“I think, in general, she was going to have a home field advantage,” said Gavin Wax, president of the New York Young Republican Club, which hosted a watch party. “They definitely asked her a few questions on some policy changes over the years, but I didn’t really see any fact checks on her, and I think they were definitely necessary.”At points throughout the night, the party’s attendees booed the moderators’ pushback on Trump’s claims.

Fact check: Harris-Trump presidential debate claims checked – DW – The first debate between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris was full of false and misleading claims about migrants, abortion and a "bloodbath." DW fact-checked several of them.US presidential nominees Kamala Harris and Donald Trump faced off in an occasionally heated presidential debate in Philadelphia on Tuesday evening. From exaggerated statements on unemployment and bizarre stories aiming to fire the anti-migrant rhetoric, along with false numbers about the Russia-Ukraine war, DW looked at a few claims from the long night and debunked fact from fiction.

• Unproven claim that immigrants eat pets Claim: During the debate, former President Trump repeated a claim about immigrants eating pets in the US, particularly in the state of Ohio. "In Springfield, they're eating the dogs. The people that came in. They're eating the cats. They're eating... they're eating the pets of the people that live there."
• DW Fact check: Unproven. Trump repeatedly used anti-migrant rhetoric during the debate. The claim has been widely spread online in recent days, and was promoted by Trump's running mate, Ohio Senator JD Vance on X (formerly Twitter) on Monday. A day later, Vance stated in another post that it’s possible "that all of these rumors will turn out to be false." During the debate, Trump repeated the allegation that immigrants were killing and eating petsImage: Alex Brandon/AP/picture allianceThere is no evidence in support of this claim in Springfield, Ohio. Following Trump's comment, moderator David Muir noted that ABC News had reached out to Springfield’s city manager, who confirmed there have been no reports of pets being harmed, injured or abused by the immigrant community.According to other media outlets, officials in Springfield, Ohio, said they have not received any credible reports of immigrants abducting or eating pets. DW found articles on conservative and far-right websitesand posts on social media stillclaiming that migrants were allegedly harming animals. However, no evidence of this was provided.
• Do Democrats support the execution of babies? Claim: Trump said "under Roe v. Wade [...] you could do abortions in the seventh month, the eighth month, the ninth month" and added, "and probably after birth."
• DW Fact check: Misleading. Roe v. Wade , the landmark 1973 ruling that protected the right to abortion in the US, did not specify a particular month in which abortions should be legal. From the end of the second trimester, the state could regulate or prohibit abortions to protect the pregnant person's health or to preserve fetal viability. However, no US state permits late-stage abortion, and infanticide is illegal in the country. Media outlet Axios has compiled a list of states and their restrictions on how late in pregnancy abortions are allowed. Data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention shows that less than 1% of abortions are performed after 21 weeks, typically due to serious medical conditions.
• Does Trump support a national abortion ban? Claim: "If Donald Trump were to be reelected, he will sign a national abortion ban," claimed Harris. "Understand in hisProject 2025 there would be a national abortion ban."
• DW Fact check: False Project 2025 is a nearly 1,000-page document published by the Heritage Foundation in 2023. It consists of detailed policy proposals put together by hundreds of conservatives, who hope Trump will adopt them if reelected. The project doesn't specifically mention a national abortion ban, but certain ideas that could lead to outlawing abortion nationwide. It's difficult to predict what stance Trump would take on a national abortion ban if he were reelected as US president. However, he has never explicitly stated that he would impose a national ban. Trump has avoided answering this questionseveral times, including during the debate, where he did not provide a clear "yes" or "no."
• Harris' misleading claim about unemployment Claim: "Donald Trump left us the worst unemployment since the Great Depression," Harris claimed.
• DW Fact check: Misleading. The Great Depression, a worldwide economic downturn, began in 1929 and lasted about a decade. The unemployment rate peaked in May 1933, with 25% of Americans out of jobs. The exact figures vary slightly depending on the data used, as some statistics were seasonally adjusted while others were not. In April 2020, under Trump's presidency, the unemployment rate surged to around 14.8%, the highest since 1933. It's important to note that it occurred at the height of the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic, when many restrictions were in place to stop the spread of the virus. It may be true that this was the highest rate since the Great Depression, but when Biden took over the presidency in January 2021 the unemployment rate had already dropped back to around 6.4%.
• Trump claimed millions being killed in Russia-Ukraine war Claim: While answering a question about the Israel-Hamas war, Trump diverted the discussion to the Russia-Ukraine conflict. He claimed, "If I were president, Russia would have never, ever [...] have gone into Ukraine and killed millions of people when you add it up."
• DW Fact check: False. This claim is a significant exaggeration. While it's difficult to independently verify death tolls during wars, reports show there haven't been millions of deaths, but several thousand. A UN report from February 2024 said more than 10,000 civilians have been killed since Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022, and nearly 20,000 civilians have been injured.
• Harris' misleading claim about a bloodbath Claim: "Donald Trump, the candidate, has said in this election there will be a bloodbath if this [...] the outcome of this election is not to his liking," said Harris.
• DW Fact check: Misleading. Vice President Harris referred to comments Trump made at a rally in Vandalia, Ohio, in March. Trump immediately responded that his use of "bloodbath" was referring to the energy sector. Discussing the car industry, he addressed Chinese President Xi, saying: "We're going to put a 100% tariff on every single car that comes across the line, and you're not going to be able to sell those cars if I get elected."He added: "Now, if I don't get elected, it’s going to be a bloodbath for the whole — that's gonna be the least of it." He warned, "It's going to be a bloodbath for the country. That will be the least of it. But they're not going to sell those cars." Trump spokespeople also told several media outlets at the time, including The Washington Post and NBC News that he was only talking about economics.

Kamala Harris widens lead over Donald Trump in post debate poll - Vice President Harris has widened her lead over former President Trump in a survey conducted after they clashed at their Tuesday debate. The Morning Consult poll found Harris leading by 5 points after the high-stakes ABC debate, ticking up from the 3- and 4-point leads she held in the same survey before the event in Philadelphia. If the election were held today, 50 percent of respondents said they would cast their ballot for Harris, up from 49 percent who were polled before the debate. Trump, on the other hand, lost support. Ahead of the debate, 46 percent of respondents said they would cast their ballot for the former president if the election were held today. After Tuesday’s debate, that decreased to 45 percent. A majority of Harris’s support comes from Democrats, but she leads Trump among independent voters with 46 percent support to his 40 percent, the survey found. “It’s too early to say whether Harris’ debate performance is the key driver of our latest head-to-head numbers, as our short-term trends suggest she was already building momentum ahead of Tuesday’s televised match-up,” Morning Consult analysts wrote. Still, that debate performance, which was widely seen as successful, will help her sustain that momentum, they wrote.

Donald Trump says he won't do another debate with Kamala Harris -Former President Trump said Thursday he would not participate in another debate with Vice President Harris, squashing the potential for a second meeting between the two candidates before Election Day. “When a prizefighter loses a fight, the first words out of his mouth are, ‘I WANT A REMATCH,'” Trump posted on Truth Social, asserting that he won Tuesday’s debate with Harris despite some polls showing otherwise. The former president argued issues like inflation and immigration were discussed “in great detail” during his June debate with President Biden and during Tuesday night’s showdown with Harris. “She was a no-show at the Fox Debate, and refused to do NBC & CBS,” Trump posted. “KAMALA SHOULD FOCUS ON WHAT SHE SHOULD HAVE DONE DURING THE LAST ALMOST FOUR YEAR PERIOD. THERE WILL BE NO THIRD DEBATE!” Shortly after Trump’s social media post, Harris took to the stage for a rally in North Carolina where she addressed her desire to face the former president again. “I believe we owe it to the voters to have another debate, because this election and what are at stake could not be more important,” Harris told supporters. Trump and Harris debated on Tuesday, their first meeting since Harris became the Democratic candidate in late July. The vice president repeatedly attempted to get under Trump’s skin, often succeeding as the former president went on tangents about crowd size, Biden and a conspiracy theory about migrants abducting pets in an Ohio town.Harris’s campaign almost immediately called for a second debate between the two candidates. Trump waffled, suggesting he wasn’t inclined to agree to another one.The former president had previously accepted a Fox News debate in early September and an NBC debate in late September, though Harris’s campaign said a second debate was dependent on the two candidates both participating in Tuesday’s event, hosted by ABC News.A CNN rapid poll found 63 percent of debate watchers said Harris won Tuesday’s debate, compared to 37 percent who said Trump won. Multiple polls released Thursday showed Harriswidening her lead over Trump nationally.

Marjorie Taylor Greene vs. Laura Loomer: Trump allies clash over 'racist' Harris attack - Two top allies of former President Trump are warring on social media about a bigoted social media post mocking Vice President Harris’s Indian heritage, exposing fault lines within the Republican presidential candidate’s inner circle. Right-wing activist Laura Loomer, a former congressional candidate with a lengthy history of anti-Muslim comments, and Georgia Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R) have been engaged in a war of words on the social platform X, with Greene calling Loomer “appalling and extremely racist” for her recent comments. Loomer quoted a Sunday post in which Harris was talking about her Indian heritage and said that if she wins the election, “the White House will smell like curry & White House speeches will be facilitated via a call center and the American people will only be able to convey their feedback through a customer satisfaction survey at the end of the call that nobody will understand.” On Wednesday night, three days after Loomer’s post, Greene posted a response saying the comment “does not represent who we are as Republicans or MAGA. This does not represent President Trump. This type of behavior should not be tolerated ever.” The two Trump allies have since been in an intense back-and-forth on X, with Loomer calling Greene a “raging antisemite” and defending her initial post as a “funny joke about Kamala Harris” using “her Indian mom as a way to dodge questions.” Greene, who has also come under criticism for fanning antisemitic conspiracy theories, slammed Loomer’s comments in another post, adding that “when it comes to post that are flat out racist, hateful, and make President Trump look bad, she needs to be responsible and delete them.” Loomer also repeatedly attacked Greene over her divorce. “Along with being an anti semite, MTG is also a poor excuse for a Christian,” Loomer wrote in one post. This public feud played out as Loomer was spotted accompanying Trump as he commemorated the anniversary of 9/11 in New York and Pennsylvania on Wednesday. Loomer, who previously called the 9/11 attacks an “inside job,” told The Associated Press that she doesn’t work for the Trump campaign and that she was “invited as a guest.” She did not respond to questions about her past statements about 9/11. She was also spotted departing Trump’s plane when he landed in Philadelphia for Tuesday’s debate against Harris. Loomer said that Greene’s attacks on X were motivated by jealousy. “Nobody talks about her anymore because she’s annoying and irrelevant and a sellout,” she wrote in one post. Loomer has also pushed false conspiracy theories about Haitian immigrants in Springfield, Ohio, gaining national attention. The The unfounded claims were later repeated by Trump during his debate against Harris, as well as amplified by his running mate Sen. JD Vance (Ohio).Reached for comment, Greene’s office pointed to comments she made on the Capitol steps, saying she has “concerns about her rhetoric and her hateful tone.” “Laura Loomer’s outright lies, instability, and manic toxicity have no place in MAGA,” Greene posted on X. Loomer posted that she would not be replying to requests for comment on X. “To the many reporters who are calling me and obsessively asking me to talk to them today, the answer is no.”

What bankers need to know about Trump's World Liberty Financial | American Banker --In a video posted on X on Thursday, former President Donald Trump said he will be announcing a new crypto company he's launching with his sons, Eric Trump and Donald Trump Jr., on Monday night. Eighteen-year-old Barron Trump is reportedly the project's "DeFi visionary." "We're embracing the future with crypto and leaving the slow and outdated big banks behind," Trump said in the short video about the company, World Liberty Financial. Trump has pledged during his presidential campaign to turn the U.S. into the "crypto capital of the planet," as he put it in an August video about World Liberty Financial. In combination with the imminent launch of his own crypto venture, the comments raise concerns that, if elected, he might use the federal government to help support a business tied to himself and his family. Trump has often faced similar accusations in the past. Over the course of his presidency, Trump made more than $200 million from foreign business interests, according to campaign finance and lobbying data nonprofit OpenSecrets — a result primarily of personally maintaining control over his real estate companies while president. He has also faced allegations by Democrats of steering government spending to his resorts. Trump and his sons have publicly disclosed few details on what the company will offer beyond saying that it is a decentralized finance platform, which could mean storing monetary value in a digital wallet, lending money in a peer-to-peer manner with cryptocurrency or a number of other applications. One part of the company's offering seems clear — that it will create or use a stablecoin tied to the U.S. dollar. A stablecoin is a type of cryptocurrency that attempts to peg the value of a unit of the cryptocurrency to an exact, unchanging amount of fiat currency. On its Telegram channel this month, the company posted a message about "spreading U.S.-pegged stablecoins around the world" as a means of ensuring "the U.S. dollar's dominance continues." The marketing for the yet-to-launch decentralized finance company leans heavily on depicting "banks and financial institutions" as "crooked" and claims they "rig the system against everyday Americans," as Trump Jr. put it in a message last month in the official Telegram channel for the project. "They shut people out, deny them loans, drown them in paperwork and kill them with legal and processing fees," Trump Jr. said. "These banks and the elites who run them want absolute control but that ends now."

BMO wins appeal in high-stakes Ponzi scheme case - A federal appeals panel has overturned a jury verdict that would have cost BMO Financial Group hundreds of millions of dollars, finding that the bank cannot be held legally responsible in connection with a multibillion-dollar Ponzi scheme.Following the decision Thursday, Toronto-based BMO said that it expects to reverse a previously recorded provision of 1.19 billion Canadian dollars, resulting in an expected after-tax recovery of CA$875 million in the fourth quarter."We are very pleased with the decision of the United States Court of Appeals for the 8th Circuit," a company spokesperson said in a press release.The case grew out of a Ponzi scheme that Thomas J. Petters operated for more than a decade until he was arrested in 2008. Two years later, Petters was sentenced to 50 years in prison in connection with what the Department of Justice called a $3.7 billion fraud.Under the scheme, money went through an account that Petters' company had at National City Bank and later at successor bank Marshall & Ilsley, which was acquired by BMO in 2011.The lawsuit against BMO's U.S. banking subsidiary, BMO Harris Bank, was brought by the trustee of the bankruptcy estate of the company that ran the Ponzi scheme.The plaintiff alleged that both National City and Marshall & Ilsley failed to respond to irregularities, facilitating and legitimizing the scheme. For example, Marshall & Ilsley employees ignored money-laundering alerts and allowed the company that operated the Ponzi scheme to overdraft millions of dollars, according to the plaintiff.

FinCEN analyzed 15,000 check fraud cases. Here's what they found. -An analysis published Monday by the Financial Crimes Enforcement Network shines a light on the preferred methods criminals use to commit check fraud, finding that they prefer simplistic methods that avoid contact with human tellers but still involve some check manipulation.The report comes a year and a half after the network, a bureau of the U.S. Department of the Treasury, issued an alert about the connection between mail theft and check fraud. In that alert, FinCEN requested that financial institutions, and other companies that submit Suspicious Activity Reports related to check fraud, flag cases where mail theft appeared to be involved.In the six months following that alert, FinCEN received 15,417 reports of mail theft-related check fraud, from 841 financial institutions, amounting to $688 million in reported suspicious activity.These schemes tended to involve large amounts of money; the average amount involved in a report of mail theft-related check fraud was $44,774, and the median was $14,215. Only a small percentage of reports — less than 0.1% — involved $0, $1 or an unreported amount of money.According to the analysis, "numerous" filings reported the entire check amount even though no transaction occurred. It is therefore unclear how much money in total was stolen from banks and consumers in mail theft-related check fraud schemes during the six-month period. In 44% of cases analyzed, scammers altered a stolen check, then deposited or cashed it, according to the FinCEN analysis, making this the most common outcome after a check was stolen from the mail. In 26% of cases, stolen checks were used as templates to create counterfeit checks, and in 20% of cases, stolen checks were fraudulently signed and deposited.

Fraud rate declines yet costs consumers more -While there has been a plateau in the overall number of reports of fraud victimizing both banks and consumers, the number still remains far higher than pre-pandemic norms, and some fraud costs are still increasing.That's according to data from the Financial Crimes Enforcement Network, or Fincen, whichtracks suspicious activity reports, or SARs, filed by financial service companies about fraud, and the Federal Trade Commission, which tracks consumer reports to various government agencies and consumer advocacy groups about fraud and identity theft.The data indicates that the sheer number of reports of fraud slightly decreased at the beginning of 2024 compared to the previous year. But, the total cost of fraud that consumers have reported is still increasing, and fraud against both consumers and banks is still worse than it was in 2019.In the first half of 2024, consumers reported $5.4 billion in losses, compared to $4.9 billion in losses in the first half of 2023. In other words, fraudsters are on pace to steal more money from consumers this year than they did last year.So, even as the total number of reports has decreased compared to last year, the total dollar amount lost to fraud is increasing. It's a continuation of a trend that dates back two years.

Senate Democrats take on fintechs and their partner banks — In two separate letters to regulators, several Senate Democrats Thursday criticized various aspects of the fintech industry, including banking as a service provider arrangements and buy now/pay later companies. Sens. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., and Chris Van Hollen, D-Md., both on the Senate Banking Committee, asked the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. and the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency to ban the use of the FDIC name or logo for companies that provide only pass-through FDIC insurance, and to directly supervise those companies under the Bank Service Company Act. "You possess clear statutory authority to regulate service providers directly," the letter reads. "In the immediate term, given the threat posed to consumer deposits by the safety and soundness vulnerabilities of BaaS and fintech companies, we urge you to use your existing authority … to directly supervise and examine these entities and address these threats." The call comes amid uncertainty following the collapse of Synapse, a fintech middleman that connected fintech apps like Juno and Yotta with banks like Evolve. The middleware firm's messy bankruptcy resulted in millions of consumer funds frozen or lost, and left those consumers confused about the extent to which their funds were covered by FDIC insurance. "The rapid growth of these partnerships risks harming consumers while posing a broader threat to the stability of our banking system and the economy," the lawmakers said. The FDIC has issued a number of consent orders to fintech or crypto companies asking them to clarify statements about deposit insurance in instances where the agency felt it was being misrepresented, but it does not ban the statements outright.The agency will also meet next week in an open board meeting to discuss "Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Custodial Deposit Accounts with Transaction Features and Prompt Payment of Deposit Insurance to Depositors," a topic that is likely to address some of the regulatory shortcomings that Synapse's failure has brought to light. Separately, Sens. Jack Reed, D-R.I., a senior member of the Senate Banking Committee; Sherrod Brown, D-Ohio, the chairman of the panel; and Tammy Duckworth, D-Ill., wrote to the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau about another issue: buy now/pay later."Some of these products can include hidden fees, create negative history in a consumer's credit report, and encourage consumers to rack up debt they cannot afford to repay that could later harm their long-term financial health," the lawmakers said. The lawmakers urged the bureau to begin regulating BNPL products as credit cards. Doing so, the lawmakers said, would finalize an interpretive rule clarifying that BNPL companies are responsible for providing consumers with credit card-like protections.

Watchdog probe says Atlanta Fed president created 'appearance' of impropriety --Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Raphael Bostic violated the central bank's trading rules and policies in 2022, according to a government watchdog report. The Federal Reserve's Office of the Inspector General, or OIG, released the findings from its review of Bostic's investments and related disclosures made between 2017 and 2021 on Wednesday. The probe determined the trades were not made based on confidential information and did not present conflicts of interest, but they did create the appearance of impropriety. Along with leading the regional reserve bank, Bostic also participates in the Fed's monetary policy making arm, the Federal Open Market Committee, attending meetings and voting on policies on a rotating basis. Bostic is a current member of the FOMC but will rotate off the committee in 2025. OIG investigators confirmed that trades were made by third-party investment managers and that neither Bostic nor his personal investment advisor had control over the moves. Still, the report notes, the Atlanta Fed president was responsible for ensuring his affairs were handled in line with Fed policies and failed to do so. "Based on the totality of these findings, Dr. Bostic also created an 'appearance of acting on confidential FOMC information' under the FOMC blackout rule and an 'appearance of a conflict of interest' that could cause a reasonable person to question Dr. Bostic's impartiality under FRB Atlanta's code of conduct," the report stated.

Wells Fargo gets hit with new AML enforcement action --For the second time in recent years, Wells Fargo is in hot water over its efforts to prevent money laundering, with its main federal regulator imposing the latest penalty on Thursday. The Office of the Comptroller of the Currency flagged "deficiencies" at the megabank in an enforcement action released Thursday. The action is a major setback for Wells, which was freed from a separate anti-money-laundering order with the OCC in 2021. The bank's stock plunged by about 4% on Thursday afternoon after the news. Investors have been hoping that Wells CEO Charlie Scharf, who joined the bank in late 2019, will finally be able to rid the San Francisco company of its numerous regulatory troubles. In a statement Thursday, the $1.9 trillion-asset bank said that it has been "working to address a substantial portion of what's required in the formal agreement." "We are committed to completing the work with the same sense of urgency as our other regulatory commitments," the bank said. The OCC, meanwhile, said that it's requiring Wells to take "comprehensive corrective actions" to ensure that it is reporting suspicious activity, in addition to performing adequate customer due diligence and customer identification. The bank, which has been shackled by an asset cap since 2018, must also take extra steps as it considers launching new products and services. Within two months, the bank will have to submit a plan to assess any money laundering and sanctions risks tied to new products and services. In the meantime, it cannot expand into products or markets with higher risks of violations without getting an explicit non-objection from its regulators. Among other steps, the OCC is requiring Wells to submit an action plan on how it plans to get back into compliance, including by better delineating roles and training for front-line staffers. The OCC's order did not include the announcement of a monetary penalty.

Bank investors' worry after Wells Fargo AML action: Who's next? - A new enforcement action over Wells Fargo'santi-money-laundering guardrails has investors worried about whether other banks will be next. The regulators' action on Thursday against Wells Fargo didn't include fines and lacked some of the teeth of most enforcement actions. But analysts worry Wells won't be the only bank facing scrutiny from the U.S. government, whose regulators are more closely eyeing whether the industry is doing enough to prevent money laundering.And it comes months after severe lapses in those protections hobbled Canada's TD Bank, whose vast U.S. branch footprint reportedly proved easy for drug traffickers to exploit as they sought to launder cash. The bank may have to pay some $3 billion in fines, and its plans for a U.S. expansion were shelved.Lawyers, analysts and consultants expect more penalties against banks, from small community banks to larger institutions. But which companies will be subject to those penalties remains unclear, as does whether regulators will merely scold them or more forcefully crack down against worse offenders."There is an uneasiness," said Ed MIlls, a policy analyst at the firm Raymond James. "There is always an expectation that, when you see a regulatory action with one large bank, that usually forces an examination of other similar-sized institutions."Bank investors are "trying to wrap their heads around the level of severity," said Scott Siefers, an analyst at Piper Sandler who covers Wells Fargo and other larger banks. "At this point, I would say no one really knows," Siefers said. "It's just out there as a discussion point and a concern."

Connecticut private bank draws regulatory ire -State and federal regulators issued an enforcement action against a Greenwich, Connecticut, bank that specializes in wealth management. Fieldpoint Private Bank & Trust, along with its parent company Fieldpoint Private Holdings, entered a written agreement with the Federal Reserve Bank of New York and the Connecticut Department of Banking this week. The $1.4 billion-asset bank agreed to make changes to several management areas including funding, liquidity, budgeting and strategic planning. Fieldpoint also agreed to build up and maintain "sufficient" capital, and it consented to a capital conservation plan that requires it to get written approval before initiating share buybacks, declaring dividends or making any other sort of capital distributions. As part of the agreement, the bank's board of directors pledged to be a "source of strength" for the institution and ensure that it meets all of its obligations. The bank must submit written reports to its supervisors on its reform plans within the next 90 days. After that, it must make regular progress reports. The public enforcement action against the bank does not identify specific deficiencies, as is typical for such documents. By entering the agreement, the bank has waived its right to dispute the regulators' findings. Fieldpoint was founded in 2008 by a group of prominent Wall Street figures, including former Merrill Lynch executives David Komansky and Daniel Tully; former UBS PaineWebber CEO Joe Grano; Invemed Associates' Kenneth Langone; and KKR co-founder Jerome Kohlberg. The group sought to establish a bank that specialized in serving high-net-worth individuals and families. According to its website, the private bank serves more than 1,000 client families and entrepreneurs. The bank opened a Manhattan branch in 2015, then expanded to Atlanta in 2021 and Winter Park, Florida, in 2022 by purchasing existing wealth management teams in those markets. Fieldpoint also launched a registered investment advisory business in 2022 but sold it the following year to New York-based Dominari Financial. Fieldpoint's business lines include commercial banking, personal banking and trust services and wealth transfer planning. It also offers business and personal credit cards.

CFPB hits TD Bank with $28M in penalties for credit-reporting abuses -The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau has ordered TD Bank to pay $28 million for illegally tarnishing customers' credit and subsequently failing to rectify practices the bank knew to be botched. TD entered into a consent agreement with the CFPB on Wednesday that says the bank gave false information to consumer reporting companies, sometimes knowingly, and lagged in remedying the failures once it was aware of them. The action comes as the U.S. subsidiary of Toronto-based TD Bank Group likely faces massive sanctions and fines from other U.S. regulators for separate anti-money-laundering failures. The Cherry Hill, New Jersey-based bank neither admitted nor denied any wrongdoing related to the CFPB's claims, per the consent order. TD spokesperson Miranda Garrison said in an email that the bank "cooperated fully to resolve this matter." "Long before this settlement, TD self-identified these matters and voluntarily and proactively implemented enhancements to our furnishing and dispute handling practices," Garrison said. The CFPB said the bank's missteps impacted hundreds of thousands of customers.

Federal banking agencies extend comment period on bank-fintech risks — Federal banking agencies on Friday extended the comment period on guidance and a request for information on bank-fintech arrangements after receiving a request to do so. The agencies are reviewing arrangements involving potential risks of third-party fintech partnerships for banking products and services. They didn't say who made the request for the extension. "After reviewing the request, the agencies find it appropriate to grant the request and extend the comment period by an additional 30 days," an agency release noted. "An extension of the comment period will provide additional opportunity for the public to consider the request, prepare comments and address the questions posed by the agencies." Banks now have until Oct. 30 to provide feedback on the proposed rule, which highlights the potential risks tied to third-party arrangements, especially those involving fintech partnerships for deposit products and services. Initially released by the three federal banking agencies in July, the proposal came alongside a request for information on the risks associated with bank-fintech collaborations, with the original comment period set to end in September. A release at the time noted, "The agencies are considering whether additional steps could help ensure banks effectively manage risks associated with these various types of arrangements." Banks sometimes rely on third parties to maintain the deposit and transaction system of record, process payments, deliver customer service and perform regulatory compliance and other functions, the joint statement said in July. Regulators have suggested that banks thoroughly vet third-party partners for reliability, establish clear contracts that lay out the roles and responsibilities of each party and monitor the management information systems used by third parties.

Regulators ready to lower capital in Basel III re-proposal -The Federal Reserve is poised to narrow the scope of its controversial regulatory reform proposal from last year and trim the overall capital implication for the banks still affected by it.Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr, in a Tuesday morning speech, detailed the changeshe would like to see in a re-proposal of the so-called Basel III endgame. Some of the changes would exclude banks between $100 billion and $250 billion from the requirements and would increase the aggregate capital for the nation's largest banks by 9% instead of 19%, as originally proposed. Banks with more than $250 billion of assets that are not deemed global systemically important would see their capital requirements increased by less than 5%.Barr spared no detail in his remarks, wading into the weeds of his desired tweaks."It's a spinach-only speech," Barr said during a question-and-answer session following the address.Barr said the changes were agreed upon by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. and the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, though all three agencies still must formally adopt the changes and move to re-propose."The broad and material changes to both proposals that I've outlined today would better balance the benefits and costs of capital in light of comments received, and result in a capital framework that appropriately reflects the risks of bank activities and is tiered to the banking sector," Barr said. "They also bring the proposals broadly in line with what other major jurisdictions are doing."Barr said the Fed will have an open board meeting to discuss the changes soon, adding that he expects his changes would have broad support on the central bank's board of governors, though he declined to project how many of the seven members would vote in favor of the re-proposal.

'Show them death and they'll take despair': Banks not sold on Basel III redux -As federal regulators prepare to roll back parts of their controversial capital reform proposal from last year, large banks appear placated — but not necessarily satisfied. In a Tuesday morning speech, Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr said the Fed, Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. and Office of the Comptroller of the Currency were prepared to revise their so-called Basel III endgame proposal. The changes would limit the scope of the rule change and reduce the additional capital requirements for the nation's largest banks by half.Bank of America CEO Brian Moynihan, speaking at an industry conference Tuesday afternoon, said he's encouraged by regulators addressing the industry's concerns. He added that the $3.3 trillion bank is well-positioned to adapt to the proposed framework, but he questions why capital requirements are being raised in the first place."We feel good about it. But I'd say there's an old phrase, 'Show them death, and they'll take despair.' I sometimes feel that that's what we just got," Moynihan said. "They showed us 20, then they're saying, 'Take 10.' Let's think about the logic.Although banks have built up their capital cushions to prepare for heightened requirements, executives argue that being forced to bulk up more will limit their ability to make affordable loans to small and middle-market businesses. Moynihan said Tuesday that a 10% capital increase at Bank of America still translates to $160 billion in loans the company could no longer make.

BankThink: Basel III isn't about SVB anymore, and it never should have been | American Banker — This may be an understatement, but Hollywood directors and studios don't always get along. Directors see themselves as artists and storytellers, with the film as their canvas. Studios have a different objective, which is to make all the movies they release as broadly appealing as possible. The editing process is where the director's creative vision and the studio's commercial expectations collide, and it is not uncommon for the studio to ultimately prevail — even if it prevails in making a worse movie.This, I suspect, is not unlike the dynamic at play with the final studio release of Basel III: Endgame, which differs significantly from the director's cut that was proposed last July. In ahighly anticipated speech Tuesday at the Brookings Institution, Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr laid out his blueprint for what regulators' final rule will look like, and it seems that, for the most part, the artistic vision Barr had for the project ultimately had to concede some of its most critical plot points in order to put out something that would sell to the movie-going public.That original vision went something like this: The failures of Silicon Valley Bank, Signature Bank and First Republic last spring made it clear that now, more than ever, large banks need to hold more capital to make them sufficiently resilient in the face of unanticipated obstacles. To that end, bank regulators would finalize the long-dormant Basel III: Endgame rules on market and operational risk, while at the same time addressing some more narrow shortcomings in capital calculations illustrated by the crisis, like making securities available for sale as part of a bank's capital calculation.In other words, Basel III: Endgame did not start because of the SVB crisis, but the SVB crisis served as affirmative proof that Basel III: Endgame needed to be finalized and made more aggressive in raising overall capital levels in the banking system. "In an obvious way, the failures of SVB and other banks this spring were a warning that banks need to be more resilient, and need more of what is the foundation of that resilience, which is capital," Barr said in a speech just ahead of the director's cut proposal last year.But in the studio release outlined Tuesday morning, that rhetorical tether between SVB and Basel III: Endgame has been effectively severed. Banks with between $100 and $250 billion of assets — the midsize range in which all three failed banks fell — would not be subject to the heightened credit and operational risk methodologies detailed in the proposal; those instead would be reserved for the Global Systemically Important Banks, whose financial condition actually improved during the crisis because so many depositors fled their little banks for ones they thought would be "too big to fail." And the top-line capital raise for those largest banks — something on the order of 20% in the director's cut — would be about half that in the studio release.Midsize banks would see a capital increase of something like 5% in the studio release, but that is attributable entirely to the aforementioned revision of the capital treatment of securities available for sale — a needed improvement to be sure, but one whose utility in the face of the crisis was uncontroversial. What is more, the technical question about whether regulators would finalize with changes or start from scratch seems to be resolved: They will start from scratch, there will be no push to finish the rule before the election, and they will take their time.What this tells me is that Basel III: Endgame (director's cut) was initially proposed to maximize the nexus between the Basel III accords and the failures of those three midsize regional banks last year, and that tether was tied for political expediency. As former White House Chief of Staff Rahm Emanuel famously quipped, one should never let a crisis go to waste; Barr and at least some of his fellow regulators saw the SVB fiasco as a chance to get higher bank capital through the regulatory process with limited resistance.That resistance did materialize, and with a fervor and intensity that clearly wasn't anticipated. The resulting delays meant that the fleeting moment of public support for big regulatory swings on bank capital slipped away. This is a new moment, and one where the justification for raising capital on the biggest and most complex banks has to be found elsewhere.

BankThink: It's time for the US to withdraw from the Basel capital accords | American Banker - I have long been deeply concerned about the Basel capital accords, which have governed the capitalization rules of major banks throughout much of the world for the past three decades. Not only the major banks are impacted — the Basel rules inevitably filter down to regional and smaller banks throughout our country without a vote of Congress or state legislators. How did this troubling situation come about?Beginning in the 1980s, the Bank for International Settlements, or BIS, a central bank for central banks, began promulgating capital rules imposed globally. For those who do not know, which is most of us, Basel is an obscure town in Switzerland where the BIS is headquartered.Up to and during the 1970s, there was little coordination among bank regulators about supervisory standards and rules, even in the U.S., much less among nations. Peter Cooke, now deceased, who served as head of bank supervision for the Bank of England, began a group of international bank supervisors in 1977 called "The Cooke Committee," which was the precursor of what was to become the Basel Committee. I respected Peter Cooke and his vitally important mission of enhancing communications and coordination among financial regulators across the globe. I thought, and still believe, it was inappropriate for BIS to set capital standards for the major global banks for several very important reasons. First, the rules produced by BIS result from compromise among various nations and are weaker than strong nations like the U.S. would produce on their own. Second, the compromise process is slow and burdensome, requiring some ten years each for Basel I, II and III to be developed. Finally, because Basel is central bank centric rather than bank regulator centric, the focus is on allowing and encouraging the development of a handful of "too big to fail" banks.

Bowman critiques stress tests for volatility, duplicity and opacity — Federal Reserve Gov. Michelle Bowman criticized bank stress tests for their opacity and the Fed's regulatory requirements for the duplicative burdens they may impose on the entities it oversees. "These issues — volatility, the link between stress-testing results and capital and the short capital implementation compliance time frame, the lack of transparency and the overlap between the global market shock in stress testing with the market risk test of Basel III — can all be addressed and should be prioritized in the ongoing evolution of the stress-testing framework and stress capital buffer requirements," Bowman said Tuesday. "It is important that regulators consider the lessons learned from past tests and feedback from banks and other members of the public to ensure that stress testing is fair, transparent and more useful going forward."Bowman offered her critiques in remarks delivered to the Executive Council of the Banking Law Section of the Federal Bar Association and proposed looking at results across multiple years, improving transparency and re-examining some of what she believes are overlaps in regulation to upgrade stress testing at the agency. Bowman emphasized the need for a broader approach when considering the optimal overall capital levels in the banking system. She highlighted the importance of factoring in not just risk-based and leverage capital requirements but also long-term debt obligations, a concept regulators have proposed and remains pending. In his speech just hours before Bowman, Michael Barr, the Fed's vice chair for supervision, outlined significant changes to the Basel III endgame proposal, which would require banks to invest more of their own money and less of their borrowed funds into lending activities. This way, banks have enough "skin in the game" to absorb losses during financial crises. Barr proposed narrowing the Basel III scope to exclude banks with $100 billion to $250 billion in assets from broader capital requirements and lowering the capital increase for larger banks from 19% to 9%. He also recommended reducing capital for operational risk and allowing banks to use internal models for market risk. Bowman warned that this could result in excessive capital requirements, particularly for market-making and trading activities, potentially harming U.S. capital markets. She called for a careful review to ensure that these overlapping requirements are appropriately calibrated. One issue Bowman identified is the significant change in stress-test outcomes from year to year. This unpredictability, she said, complicates long-term capital planning for banks and forces them to hold more capital than might otherwise be necessary. If a bank fails the test, it has months to comply with capital buffers, which can be particularly challenging for banks that exceed the 2.5% buffer floor. "One solution could be to average results over multiple years, so a firm's stress capital buffer would move in smaller increments through the averaging process," she said. "Another possibility is to constrain variability in annual stress test scenario design." Bowman also said an aspect of the stress tests known as countercyclicality contributes to volatility in stress-test results and suggested re-evaluating whether this approach is appropriate given the instability it can create. Countercyclicality in stress tests means that when economic conditions are good, the stress scenarios for banks are more severe, acting as a balance to the natural procyclicality of risk models.

DSIB designations may solve some oversight problems but create others — Formally designating domestic systemically important banks could improve transparency and oversight over such firms but may also introduce additional complexity to an already intricate regulatory system, industry experts say. In a speech earlier this month, acting Comptroller of the Currency Michael Hsu suggested that U.S. banking regulators should consider establishing a DSIB designation framework in response to last year's banking turmoil and the continued growth of large banks. Hsu believes the developments in recent years indicate the current supervision of nonglobal systemically important banks may be undercalibrated."Doing so could provide helpful transparency and rigor for those banks that need it," he said. "As it would clarify the stakes involved in weakly supervising and regulating such institutions."Section 165 of the Dodd-Frank Act created a tiered regulatory framework that requires the Federal Reserve to apply stricter regulations to larger bank holding companies based on their asset size. The larger a bank holding company is, the more stringent the oversight and regulatory requirements become — including provisions for stress testing, resolution plans and higher capital requirements.However, Section 165 specifically applies to banks' parent entities and not directly to how other regulators — namely the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. — oversee the subsidiary banks of these holding companies. Despite this legal ambiguity, both the OCC and the FDIC have adopted similar tiering approaches based on a bank's asset size, applying more stringent regulations to larger banks even though they are not technically required to do so under Section 165.

BankThink: The FDIC should avoid a fact-free debate on brokered deposits | American Banker In late July, on a party-line vote, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. proposed to expand the definition of a "brokered deposit," reversing (and then some) a narrower definition also adopted by party-line vote during the previous administration. At the same meeting, the agency issued a request for information about the performance of various types of deposits, data that presumably would be critical to clarifying which categories of deposits are riskier and therefore should be roped into the definition. By proposing to amend the definition before we have the data, have we put the cart before the horse?The mechanics of these dueling definitions of brokered deposits are admittedly arcane. However, this proposal, and the brokered deposit regime overall, have big implications for banks, their business partners and customers. At least many hundreds of billions in deposits, and arguably trillions, would be reclassified as "brokered" (note that the FDIC acknowledges it doesn't have the data to calculate that impact). The brokered label matters. A deposit with the scarlet letter "brokered" costs more and is less desirable for banks, even if data suggests the underlying risks and economics are the same as a favored "core" or "retail" deposit. Regulators explicitly penalize deposits tagged as brokered: higher deposit insurance assessments, more punitive run-off assumptions in stress tests and supervisory pressure. Given the stakes, there will undoubtedly be intense opposition to the proposed rule.Funding stability is an important regulatory concern today, as it was 35 years ago when the brokered regime was enacted into law as part of the Financial Institutions Reform, Recovery, and Enforcement Act legislation addressing the savings and loan crisis. For better or worse, I know something about the brokered deposit rules. In 1989, I was privileged to serve then-Congressman Chuck Schumer on banking matters. We worked closely with the FDIC and its then-chair William Seidman on many issues, including brokered deposits, where concerns were focused on funding stability (and imprudent asset growth, now handled directly in supervision).The deposit market was far simpler in those days. With innovations like mobile banking and real-time payments decades in the future, retail customers generally were granular, had fully insured accounts, had few competing options that offered higher interest rates and faced significant barriers to moving their funds. (Most would have had to wait in line at a branch to get their money out). Given those characteristics, such retail deposits were inherently sticky.The alternative to retail deposits in the 1980s was multimillion-dollar master certificates of deposit that were cut into pieces by securities brokers and sold to wealthy clients (hence, the "brokered" deposit moniker). These wholesale deposits were typically highly concentrated, with significant discretion resting with the securities firm, not fully insured, very sensitive to alternatives offering a higher rate and subject to lower friction in moving money. Together, those characteristics made such deposits notoriously volatile.The brokered label was then a convenient proxy for the true sources of potential funding volatility: concentration, lack of deposit insurance, rate sensitivity and lack of operational friction. Even in 1989, Chairman Seidman warned of the potential to confuse the correlation of the brokered label with the underlying risks with causation: "[T]he problem is not brokered deposits per se, but how these funds, like any other funds, are used."

CFPB bans Navient federal student loan servicing, issues $120M fine - Navient, the Delaware-based loan servicing firm, will be barred from most of the federal student loan market as a result of a settlement with the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau. The company also faces $120 million in fines. Navient has agreed not to reenter the servicing space for the government's Direct Loan program. It is also prohibited from servicing or acquiring most loans from the Federal Family Education Lending Program, or FFELP. The firm will have to pay a $20 million penalty to the CFPB and set aside $100 million to compensate borrowers harmed by its practices, which CFPB Director Rohit Chopra said resulted in millions of borrowers needlessly defaulting on their student loans."We'll never know how much their lives have been ruined," Chopra said on a press call Thursday morning. Navient warned investors last year that hefty fines were coming from the CFPB. In an October call with analysts, the company's CEO David Yowan said the total bill could be as high as $250 million. Thursday's settlement with the CFPB follows a larger agreement struck between Navient andseveral state attorneys general in 2022. The company agreed to forgive $1.7 billion worth of debt and made $95 million available for distribution to borrowers wrongfully steered into forbearance. Chopra said the enforcement actions "close the book" on the agency's investigation into Navient's student loan servicing business. The probe began in 2017 and found that the firm routinely steered borrowers who were behind on payments into forbearance instead of enrolling them in more affordable repayment plans offered by the government.

How payment firms are responding to CFPB pressure -- The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau is inching closer to classifying earned wage accessas credit, the latest in a series of moves to tighten rules for payment products that the agency says pose financial risks. The CFPB just finished receiving comments on its plan to make earned wage access programs subject to the Truth in Lending Act, which would require certain providers to disclose fees and annual percentage rates similar to the rules for loans and credit cards. This proposed EWA rule came at around the same time the CFPB released a report warning about the consumer impact of fees merchants charge for cash-back services, and a probe by the Department of Transportation into airline rewards programs following a CFPB hearing in May. As consumers struggle with high prices, EWA has become popular, totaling $22 billion in 2023, according to the CFPB. Workers took out an average of 27 advances per year with an average transaction amount of $106 and an APR of 109.5%. More than 90% of workers paid at least one fee in 2022, with 92% of fees being related to "expedited transfers" that cost anywhere from $1 to $5.99, according to the CFPB's analysis of the sample data.Other fees also apply. "Workers who use direct-to-consumer paycheck advance products may pay monthly subscription fees, as much as $14.99, and often make payments that providers characterize as "tips," according to the CFPB. The CFPB received 85 comments on its EWA proposal, mostly from consumer groups and trade organizations that represent the EWA industry.Opponents of the CFPB's interpretive rule on EWA, such as the American Fintech Council, which has more than a dozen members that offer some type of EWA product, say EWA products are not loans or debt. "When you think about traditional loans … number one it's going to affect credit score," said Phil Goldfeder, CEO of the AFC, in an interview. "They're going to have to underwrite the borrower."

BankThink: The CFPB is funded by the Fed's profits. Trouble is, there are none | American Banker -- Legislating in 2010, the authors of the Dodd-Frank Act explicitly provided in Section 1017 (a) (1) of the law that their creation, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, could have its expenses paid "from the combined earnings of the Federal Reserve System." Not from any other source — only from net profits of the Fed. The earnings of a corporation, as every Federal Reserve Bank is, means simply and universally its net profits. Congress could have made it a simple assessment of the Federal Reserve Banks, but it didn't. It authorized only and specifically a share of the combined earnings. Using some of the earnings that the Fed would otherwise have to turn over to the Treasury made taking this money politically more palatable. But why did the congressional majority of 2010 put this unusual, indeed unique, funding method into the statute in the first place?It was a clever stratagem of the Democratic majority of that particular Congress to prevent future congresses from being able to discipline the CFPB through the power of the purse.This gambit obviously depended on the future Federal Reserve having some combined earningsfor the CFPB to share in, but viewed from 2010, that would not have seemed like much of a risk. The Fed was designed to make money from its monopoly in issuing U.S. currency. It had made profits for nearly a century. Its earnings in 2009 were $52 billion.In 2010, you might readily have assumed the Fed would continue to have ample earnings in the future. You would probably have thought it impossible for the Fed to experience huge losses.But what you thought impossible has nevertheless happened. Big time. The Fed began losing money during September 2022 and has had no earnings since. Instead, it has lost money every month — more than $1 billion per week. It has lost the amazing aggregate sum of $193 billion as of Aug. 28, and this fall the losses will pass $200 billion. These losses far exceed and have wiped out the Fed's retained earnings of merely $7 billion and its paid-in capital of $36 billion. Under standard accounting, the Fed's capital is now negative $150 billion. There are no earnings, there are no retained earnings and there is no capital.The losses are not, as is sometimes claimed, "mere paper losses." They are real, operating, cash losses, and the cash is gone. The Fed is suffering negative net interest income because its cost of funds is much greater than the income on its earning assets. Its net interest income for the first six months of 2024 was a negative $38 billion. Its combined earnings were a negative $43 billion. The Fed had a mark-to-market loss on June 30, of over $1 trillion.This all happened because the Fed made its balance sheet into the equivalent of the world's biggest savings and loan, with several trillion dollars of very-low-yielding, long-term fixed-rate investments funded by floating-rate liabilities. Whether this was a good idea or not from the viewpoint of a higher monetary strategy, it was a distinctly bad idea from the viewpoint of the CFPB. The Fed has for 23 months had nothing to send the CFPB.The Fed stopped sending distributions of its earnings to the Treasury in September 2022 because there were no earnings to distribute. To comply with the law, the Fed should have stopped sending payments to the CFPB at the same time for the same reason. It is not authorized to distribute nonexistent earnings. It appears that the Fed has made, and the CFPB has accepted and spent, almost two years of legally unauthorized payments.Some people object that the Supreme Court ruled that Dodd-Frank's CFPB funding provisions are constitutional. This is true, but not relevant. The Court's ruling is perfectly consistent with the illegality of the Fed's payments to the CFPB when the Fed has no earnings. The Court found the statute to be constitutional. But the statute itself provides that the payments to the CFPB must come from the Fed's combined earnings, and the Fed has no earnings as a matter of simple fact. Q.E.D.The CFPB, if prudent, should be planning how to approach Congress to ask for the appropriations it needs to stay in business. It should also be requesting the money it needs to reimburse the Fed for the funds the CFPB has already illegally received. Congress should be thinking about whether and with what conditions it wishes to appropriate funds to the CFPB until someday when the Fed again has some combined earnings. Finally, we may observe that the Fed's accumulated losses will not be offset for a long time.

Visa pushes 'pay by bank' in the UK; Klarna faces AML heat -- Visa plans to upgrade its current pay-by-bank model in the U.K. early next year to give customers more control and flexibility around paying bills and managing subscriptions.The credit card network plans to implement biometric security, a formal dispute resolution process, and a simpler way to set up and manage payment permissions for utilities, rent and childcare fees. Businesses will be able to access real-time settlement through Faster Payments, include more transactional data for reconciliation and receive notification when a customer changes or cancels payment permissions. Visa aims to gradually expand to cover subscriptions such as streaming services, gym memberships and food boxes, the company said in a release. "Bank payments are a popular way to pay bills and services but have remained largely unchanged since the inception of direct debit 60 years ago," said Mandy Lamb, managing director of Visa UK and Ireland, in a statement. "Visa A2A will ensure consumer-to-business bank transfer payments have similar levels of protection that consumers are used to when they use their cards." Visa is working with payment vendors such as Banked, Modulr, Moneyhub, Salt Edge, Vyne and Yaspa. Adoption of account-to-account payments has been on the rise in the U.K., according to Visa. Last year, 3.7 trillion pounds ($4.8 trillion) was paid through A2A Faster Payments, a 15% increase over 2022. Both Visa andMastercard have made investments in their A2A functionality in the last couple of years despite the fact that the payment method is considered an alternative to credit cards.

ICE Mortgage Monitor: House Price Growth Slows, Inventory Surges in Florida and Texas--Today, in the Real Estate Newsletter: ICE Mortgage Monitor: House Price Growth Slows, Inventory Surges in Florida and Texas. Excerpt: Press Release: ICE Mortgage Monitor: Rate drops make August most affordable month since February, as home price growth cools to 12-month low

• Declining mortgage rates have brought home affordability to its best level since February and boosted refinance incentive for many recent-vintage mortgages
• With 30-year conforming rates down 60 bps from just over 7% in May, the principal and interest payment on the average-priced home purchase is $145 less per month than just three months ago
• The share of income needed to make payments on that home (34.3%) is still 10 pp above its 30-year average and ICE Market Trends data shows recent record highs in down payments and credit scores
• Spurred by rate declines, purchase loan demand had two of its best weeks since March, but remains noticeably below the levels seen earlier this year and in 2023 when rates were at comparable levels
• The ICE Home Price Index for July showed the annual rate of home price growth slipping to +3.6% from +4.1% in June, marking the slowest pace in 12 months on rising inventory and still-soft demand
• While prices were up +0.19% from June at the national level, they fell by -0.25% or more across each of Florida’s nine largest metros which, along with Austin, saw the largest single-month declines in July
• In the Midwest and Northeast, inventory shortages persist, and prices continued to push higher in July

Here is a graph on delinquencies from ICE. Overall delinquencies decreased in July and are below the pre-pandemic levels. Source: ICE McDash

• • The national delinquency rate fell 12 basis points (bps) to 3.37% in July, offsetting some of June’s calendar-related rise – dropping 3.5% for the month but up 4.8% from the same time last year
• • Delinquencies declined in all major markets except Houston, where Hurricane Beryl resulted in an estimated 8.5K mortgage holders falling behind on payments
• • Serious delinquencies (loans 90+ days past due but not in active foreclosure) rose 5K (+1.1%) to a five-month high, but are still down -33K (-7.0%) from the same time last year
• • The number of borrowers a single payment past due dropped by -77K in July, while 60-day delinquencies climbed 11K

The local data I track is indicating that Florida and Texas inventory is above normal, whereas inventory is still low in most of the country.

• • For-sale inventory continued to improve across most of the U.S. in July On a non-adjusted basis, the number of homes listed for sale rose by 5% in the month, up 37% year over year, while the adjusted deficit fell to 32%, the shallowest it has been since mid-2020
• • New listing volumes remain weak, however, and have been worsening in recent months 26% fewer homes were listed in July than would normally be expected based on 2017-2019 same month averages – that’s the deepest deficit in 12 months, after a slow improvement late last year
• • Without a meaningful return in new listing volumes, the market is reliant on weak demand to grow inventory, limiting the ability to see stronger demand and sales volumes without a corresponding risk of inventory drawdowns
• • Every major market has more inventory for sale that at the same time last year, with the largest improvements in the state of Florida, along with individual markets, including Denver, Seattle, and parts of Texas
• • More than 1 in 5 markets are now back to, or above, 2017-2019 inventory levels, with markets like Lakeland, Austin, San Antonio, Denver, and Palm Bay all having at least 25% more homes for sale than typical for this time of year

Here is the year-over-year in house prices according to the ICE Home Price Index (HPI). The ICE HPI is a repeat sales index. ICE reports the median price change of the repeat sales. The index was up 3.6% year-over-year in July, down from 4.1% YoY in June. Source: ICE Home Price Index (HPI)

• • Rising inventory and soft demand led to further home price cooling in July, with the annual rate of home price growth slipping to +3.6% from +4.1% the month prior
• • On a seasonally adjusted basis, prices rose by +0.19%, equivalent to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) of +2.3%, suggesting possible further slowing in annual home price growth rate over the next couple of months
• • If the current pace of seasonally adjusted gains were to continue, it would result in annual home price growth cooling to 3.0-3.5% over the next couple of months before catching a modest tailwind in Q4 due to softer comps from late 2023

There is much more in the mortgage monitor.

CoreLogic: 1.11 million Homeowners with Negative Equity in Q2 2024 -From CoreLogic: CoreLogic: US Homeowners See Equity Gains Continue to Climb, but at a Slower Pace in Q2 - CoreLogic® ... today released the Homeowner Equity Report (HER) for the second quarter of 2024. The report shows that U.S. homeowners with mortgages (which account for roughly 62% of all properties) saw home equity increase by 8.0% year over year, representing a collective gain of $1.3 trillion and an average increase of $25,000 per borrower since the second quarter of 2023, bringing the total net homeowner equity to over $17.6 trillion in the second quarter of 2024. ... “Persistent home price growth has continued to fuel home equity gains for existing homeowners who now average about $315,000 in equity and almost $129,000 more than at the onset of the pandemic.” said Dr. Selma Hepp, chief economist for CoreLogic. “The substantial accumulation of home equity for existing homeowners has served as an important financial buffer in times of uncertainty, as some homeowners facing higher costs of homeowners’ insurance and taxes and have had to tap into their equity to prevent falling behind on their mortgages. As a result, mortgage delinquency rates have remained at historical lows despite the inflationary pressures and higher costs of almost all non-mortgage homeownership-related expenses.” Negative equity, also referred to as underwater or upside-down mortgages, applies to borrowers who owe more on their mortgages than their homes are currently worth. Negative equity has continued to see a recent decrease across the country. Las Vegas and Los Angeles are the least challenged, with negative equity shares of all mortgages at 0.6% and 0.7%, respectively. As of the second quarter of 2024, the quarterly and annual changes in negative equity were:
• Quarterly change: From the second quarter of 2023 to the second quarter of 2024, the total number of mortgaged homes in negative equity decreased by 4.2%, to 1 million homes or 1.7% of all mortgaged properties.
• Annual change: From the second quarter of 2023 to the first second of 2024, the total number of homes in negative equity decreased by 15%, to 1.1 million homes or 2.0% of all mortgaged properties.
The above graph is from CoreLogic and compares Q2 2024 to Q1 2024 equity distribution by LTV. There are still a few properties with LTV over 125%. But most homeowners have a significant amount of equity. This is a very different picture than at the start of the housing bust when many homeowners had little equity.The second graph is from a 2011 CoreLogic report and shows a large number of homeowners with negative equity - even as house prices were nearing a bottom! On a year-over-year basis, the number of homeowners with negative equity has decreased to 1.11 million.

‘The "Home ATM" Mostly Closed in Q2 --Today, in the Real Estate Newsletter: The "Home ATM" Mostly Closed in Q2 Excerpt: During the housing bubble, many homeowners borrowed heavily against their perceived home equity - jokingly calling it the “Home ATM” - and this contributed to the subsequent housing bust, since so many homeowners had negative equity in their homes when house prices declined. Unlike during the housing bubble, very few homeowners have negative equity now. From CoreLogic this morning: Homeowner Equity Insights – Q2 2024 The report shows that U.S. homeowners with mortgages (which account for roughly 62% of all properties) saw home equity increase by 8.0% year over year, representing a collective gain of $1.3 trillion and an average increase of $25,000 per borrower since the second quarter of 2023, bringing the total net homeowner equity to over $17.6 trillion in the second quarter of 2024. … From the second quarter of 2023 to the second quarter of 2024, the total number of mortgaged homes in negative equity decreased by 4.2%, to 1 million homes or 1.7% of all mortgaged properties. Here is the quarterly increase in mortgage debt from the Federal Reserve’s Financial Accounts of the United States - Z.1 (sometimes called the Flow of Funds report) released today. In the mid ‘00s, there was a large increase in mortgage debt associated with the housing bubble. In Q2 2024, mortgage debt increased $99 billion, up from $31 billion in Q1, and down from the cycle peak of $467 billion in Q2 2021. Note the almost 7 years of declining mortgage debt as distressed sales (foreclosures and short sales) wiped out a significant amount of debt. However, some of this debt is being used to increase the housing stock (purchase new homes), so this isn’t all Mortgage Equity Withdrawal (MEW).

Chopra: Technology may cut both ways as refinancing returns Generative artificial intelligence and other industry innovations could be a double-edged sword for borrowers as refinancing opportunities re-emerge, Consumer Financial Protection Bureau Director Rohit Chopra said at a recent event focused on innovation in housing finance."Advances in technology have the potential to help lenders lower their costs, reach more individuals and ultimately lead to refinancing for more. We want to see this in ways that work to benefit borrowers and the economy," Chopra said."However, if executed poorly, new mortgage technology could exacerbate some disparities or even make people worse off. We are on the lookout for how new mortgage tech could contribute, if implemented poorly, to discrimination, collusion or other illegal activity," he added.One of the more striking concerns Chopra voiced at the meeting jointly hosted by the National Housing Conference and Intercontinental Exchange was an assertion related to mandatory disclosures around closing costs, the latter being an expense the bureau's been eyeing.Despite all the effort that went into the federal disclosure regime, which is widely used as a historical benchmark for how difficult regulatory implementation can be, it only partially addressed issues with inflated closing costs that can serve as a barrier to refinancing, according to Chopra."Disclosure helps consumers compare, but many of the fees are not subject to robust competition. So while I agree, it's better to disclose a rip-off than to hide it, it's still a rip-off," Chopra said during the AI, technology and data event held at the New York Stock Exchange.

MBA: Mortgage Applications Increased in Weekly Survey -From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly Survey - Mortgage applications increased 1.4 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Applications Survey for the week ending September 6, 2024. This week’s results include an adjustment for the Labor Day Holiday. The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 1.4 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 10 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index increased 1 percent from the previous week and was 106 percent higher than the same week one year ago. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 2 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 10 percent compared with the previous week and was 3 percent lower than the same week one year ago. “Mortgage rates declined for the sixth consecutive week, with the 30-year fixed rate decreasing to 6.29 percent, the lowest rate since February 2023. Treasury yields have been responding to data showing a picture of cooling inflation, a slowing job market, and the anticipated first rate cut from the Federal Reserve later this month,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Vice President and Deputy Chief Economist. “With rates almost a full percentage point lower than a year ago, refinance applications continue to run much higher than last year’s pace. However, there is still somewhat limited refinance potential as many borrowers still have sub-5 percent rates. It is a positive development that there are homeowners who can benefit from a refinance as rates continues to move lower.” “Purchase applications increased over the week and are edging closer to last year’s levels. Despite the drop in rates, affordability challenges and other factors such as limited inventory might still be hindering purchase decisions.” ... The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($766,550 or less) decreased to 6.29 percent from 6.43 percent, with points decreasing to 0.55 from 0.56 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans. The first graph shows the MBA mortgage purchase index. According to the MBA, purchase activity is down 3% year-over-year unadjusted. Purchase application activity is up about 10% from the lows in late October 2023, but still below the lowest levels during the housing bust. The second graph shows the refinance index since 1990.With higher mortgage rates, the refinance index declined sharply in 2022 - and mostly flat lined for two years - but has increased recently as mortgage rates declined.

CoreLogic: US Home Prices Increased 4.3% Year-over-year in July, "Notable Cooling" -- The CoreLogic HPI is a three-month weighted average and is not seasonally adjusted (NSA). From CoreLogic: CoreLogic: Annual US Home Price Growth Dips Below 5% as Summer Brings Notable Cooling to the Housing Market
• U.S. home prices posted a 4.3% year-over-year gain in July, with no states posting double-digit gains.
• Home prices showed no gains in July compared with the month before – the first July since 2010 that home prices didn’t increase outside the 2022 declines following a surge in mortgage rates
• By August, home prices are forecast to rise only 0.2% as the summer slowdown continues.
• Miami once again took the lead as the metro with the greatest price growth among the top 10 largest metros
... U.S. year-over-year home price gains inched down, reaching 4.3% in July, falling further from the previous month’s 4.7% and resting below 5% for the third consecutive month. On a month-over-month basis, home prices decreased by 0.01% in July 2024 compared with June 2024. We will likely see home prices continue to slide for the remainder of the year as sales across the country slow. Although July marked the 150th consecutive month of annual growth, monthly home price growth is starting to slip, and annual forecasts are showing smaller anticipated gains. By August, home prices are forecast to rise only 0.2%, and next year, prices will inch up by 2.2%. Much of this sluggishness can be attributed to high mortgage interest rates that are continuing to challenge the housing market. As buyers remain cautious, sales remain low. However, the highly anticipated rate cuts from the Federal Reserve this fall may help improve consumer purchase sentiment for the housing market. “Housing demand continued to buckle under the pressure of high mortgage rates and unaffordable home prices, leading to a considerable slowing of home price gains during the summer. July’s prices were essentially flat from the month before, which was notably cooler than the average gain of 0.4% recorded between June and July in years prior to the pandemic and especially during the pandemic,” “The question for home prices going forward is whether the upcoming rate cut from the Fed and expected continuation of falling mortgage rates will be sufficient to motivate potential homebuyers who may start to fear cooling labor market and continued uncertainty of a soft landing, along with anticipation around the presidential election. And while lower mortgage rates are a boost to affordability and are likely to help buyer demand, the usual fall housing market slowdown is upon us and is likely to contain any significant surge in activity.” This was a smaller YoY increase than reported for May, and down from the 5.8% YoY increase reported at the beginning of 2024.

Housing Sept 9th Weekly Update: Inventory Down 0.1% Week-over-week, Up 38.0% Year-over-year -- Altos reports that active single-family inventory was down 0.1% week-over-week. Inventory is now up 42.4% from the February seasonal bottom. This inventory graph is courtesy of Altos Research. As of September 6th, inventory was at 704 thousand (7-day average), compared to 704 thousand the prior week. It is possible inventory is at or close to the peak for the year (this would be normal timing pre-pandemic).The second graph shows the seasonal pattern for active single-family inventory since 2015.The red line is for 2024. The black line is for 2019. Inventory was up 38.0% compared to the same week in 2023 (last week it was up 38.2%), and down 25.7% compared to the same week in 2019 (last week it was down 26.6%). Back in June 2023, inventory was down almost 54% compared to 2019, so the gap to more normal inventory levels is slowly closing.Mike Simonsen discusses this data regularly on Youtube.

Realtor.com Reports Active Inventory Up 33.4% YoY -On a weekly basis, Realtor.com reports the year-over-year change in active inventory and new listings. On a monthly basis, they report total inventory. For August, Realtor.com reported inventory was up 5.8% YoY, but still down 26.4% compared to the 2017 to 2019 same month levels. Now - on a weekly basis - inventory is up 33.4% YoY. Realtor.com has monthly and weekly data on the existing home market. Here is their weekly report: Weekly Housing Trends View—Data for Week Ending Sept. 7, 2024
• Active inventory increased, with for-sale homes 33.4% above year-ago levels/ For the 44th consecutive week dating to November 2023, the number of listings for sale has grown year over year, and this week continues a string of growth rates in the mid-30% range that started in April. This is a slight decrease from last week’s gain of 34.6%.
• New listings—a measure of sellers putting homes up for sale—ticked higher this week by 9.9% from one year ago. The recent easing of mortgage rates has encouraged many sellers to return to the market, with the year-over-year growth in new listings experiencing its largest increase in a month. What’s more, the rate was nearly double last week’s gain of 5.5%. Here is a graph of the year-over-year change in inventory according to realtor.com. Inventory was up year-over-year for the 44th consecutive week. However, inventory is still historically low.New listings remain below typical pre-pandemic levels.

Inflation Adjusted House Prices 1.6% Below 2022 Peak; Price-to-rent index is 7.7% below 2022 peak - Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Inflation Adjusted House Prices 1.9% Below 2022 PeakExcerpt: It has been over 18 years since the bubble peak. In the June Case-Shiller house price index released last week, the seasonally adjusted National Index (SA), was reported as being 73% above the bubble peak in 2006. However, in real terms, the National index (SA) is about 11% above the bubble peak (and historically there has been an upward slope to real house prices). The composite 20, in real terms, is 2% above the bubble peak.People usually graph nominal house prices, but it is also important to look at prices in real terms. As an example, if a house price was $300,000 in January 2010, the price would be $432,000 today adjusted for inflation (44% increase). That is why the second graph below is important - this shows "real" prices.The third graph shows the price-to-rent ratio, and the fourth graph is the affordability index. The last graph shows the 5-year real return based on the Case-Shiller National Index...The second graph shows the same two indexes in real terms (adjusted for inflation using CPI).In real terms (using CPI), the National index is 1.6% below the recent peak, and the Composite 20 index is 2.0% below the recent peak in 2022. Both indexes increased in June in real terms boosted by the slight month-over-month decline in inflation in June.

Asking Rents Mostly Unchanged Year-over-year - Today, in the Real Estate Newsletter: Asking Rents Mostly Unchanged Year-over-year Brief excerpt: Tracking rents is important for understanding the dynamics of the housing market. For example, the sharp increase in rents helped me deduce that there was a surge in household formation in 2021 (See from September 2021: Household Formation Drives Housing Demand). Now that household formation has slowed, and multi-family completions have increased, rents are under pressure. Welcome to the September 2024 Apartment List National Rent Report. Our model captured an average rent decrease of -0.1% in August, and today the nationwide median rent stands at $1,412. This signals the end of the rental market’s annual busy season, as well as the second consecutive summer of modest rent growth, as the market remains sluggish thanks to a windfall of new supply. If historical trends hold, rents will continue to fall on a monthly basis for the remainder of the year. In July 2024, the U.S. median rent continued to decline year over year for the 12th month in a row, down $12 (-0.7%) for 0-2 bedroom properties across the top 50 metros, faster than the rate of -0.4% seen in June 2024. The median asking rent was $1,741, down by $2 from last month, reflecting a similar seasonal trend as observed in the for-sale market.

Leading Index for Commercial Real Estate Increased 3% in August - From Dodge Data Analytics: Dodge Momentum Index Rises 3% in August The Dodge Momentum Index (DMI), issued by Dodge Construction Network, increased 2.9% in August to 220.4 (2000=100) from the revised July reading of 214.2. Over the month, commercial planning expanded 1.9% and institutional planning improved 5.7%. “Owners and developers continued to prime the planning queue in August, ahead of next year’s anticipated stronger market conditions,” stated Sarah Martin, associate director of forecasting at Dodge Construction Network. “With the Fed’s September rate cut all but finalized, the influence of selective lending standards and inflation should moderate next year, alongside a modest upgrade to consumer demand. As a result, stronger planning activity was widespread in August, with most nonresidential sectors seeing growth.” Commercial planning saw another month of broad-based improvements. After slowing down in recent years, warehouse projects have gained momentum over the last three months. Hotels and retail planning have been steadily expanding as well. Data centers continued to dominate large project activity, but the rate at which planning projects entered the queue in August moderated after several months of very strong growth. On the institutional side, healthcare was the primary driver of this past month’s expansion, followed by recreational planning. In August, the DMI was 31% higher than in August of 2023. The commercial segment was up 42% from year-ago levels, while the institutional segment was up 8% over the same period. ... The DMI is a monthly measure of the value of nonresidential building projects going into planning, shown to lead construction spending for nonresidential buildings by a full year. This graph shows the Dodge Momentum Index since 2002. The index was at 220.4 in August, up from 214.2 the previous month. According to Dodge, this index leads "construction spending for nonresidential buildings by a full year". This index suggests a slowdown in 2024 and early 2025, but a pickup in mid-2025. Commercial construction is typically a lagging economic indicator.

Fed's Flow of Funds: Household Net Worth Increased $2.8 Trillion in Q2 --The Federal Reserve released the Q2 2024 Flow of Funds report today: Financial Accounts of the United States. The net worth of households and nonprofits rose to $163.8 trillion during the second quarter of 2024. The value of directly and indirectly held corporate equities increased $0.7 trillion and the value of real estate increased $1.8 trillion. ... Household debt increased 3.2 percent at an annual rate in the second quarter of 2024. Consumer credit grew at an annual rate of 1.6 percent, while mortgage debt (excluding charge-offs) grew at an annual rate of 3 percent. The first graph shows Households and Nonprofit net worth as a percent of GDP. Net worth increased $2.8 trillion in Q2 to an all-time high. As a percent of GDP, net worth increased in Q2, but is below the peak in 2021.This includes real estate and financial assets (stocks, bonds, pension reserves, deposits, etc.) net of liabilities (mostly mortgages). Note that this does NOT include public debt obligations. The second graph shows homeowner percent equity since 1952. Household percent equity (as measured by the Fed) collapsed when house prices fell sharply in 2007 and 2008. In Q2 2024, household percent equity (of household real estate) was at 74.9% - up from 74.2% in Q1, 2024. This is close to the highest percent equity since the 1960s. Note: This includes households with no mortgage debt. The third graph shows household real estate assets and mortgage debt as a percent of GDP. Mortgage debt increased by $98 billion in Q2. Mortgage debt is up $2.34 trillion from the peak during the housing bubble, but, as a percent of GDP is at 45.9% - down from Q1 - and down from a peak of 73.3% of GDP during the housing bust. The value of real estate, as a percent of GDP, increased in Q2 - but is below the peak in Q2 2022, and is well above the average of the last 30 years.

In "Last Hurrah", Credit Card Debt Unexpectedly Soars Despite Record High APRs As Savings Rate Hits Record Low - One month ago, when multiple discount retailers (here and here) were lamenting the sudden collapse in US consumer purchasing power, we observed the reason this unexpected hit to US consumption: as the US personal savings rate had collapsed, the growth in consumer credit was slowing, and in July, credit card debt growth posted its first decline since the covid crash, just in time for another month of record high credit card rates.But fast forwarding just one month later, when in a stunning reversal, July consumer credit growth unexpectedly reversed the dramatic June slowdown, and soared more than $25 billion, to a new record high of $5.093 trillion.Looking at the components, the sudden spike in revolving credit was most notable as credit card debt growth suddenly reversed its recent slowdown, surging by $10.6 billion, the biggest monthly increase since February and the 2nd biggest of the year.But what may be even more notable is that after two years of gradual declines in the monthly rate of increase, non-revolving credit suddenly surged by almost $15 billion, ir biggest increase since June 2023 and second biggest since late 2022!A closer look at the surge reveals that in Q2 there was also a reversal in the two components that make up non-revolving credit as total student debt unexpectedly dropped by $8.3 billion to $1.745 trillion, a reversal from the $24.2 billion increase in the previous quarter. At the same time, Car Loans accelerated, and after declining by $0.8 billion in Q1, rose by $8.5 billion in the second quarter.And while the Fed's first rate cuts is not just a matter of time, with Powell expected to cut the Fed Funds rate by 25bps on Sept 18, we have previously observed just how sticky consumer credit is on the way up, and how slow it is to decline on the way down. Sure enough, the sudden surge in credit card debt was a big surprise because according to the Fed, the average rate on interest-bearing credit card accounts just hit a new record high of 22.76%, which is a vivid reminder that while banks are happy to hike credit card rates, they rarely if ever cut them.

Update: Lumber Prices Unchanged YoY -- Here is another monthly update on lumber prices NOTE: The CME group discontinued the Random Length Lumber Futures contract on May 16, 2023. I switched to a physically-delivered Lumber Futures contract that was started in August 2022. Unfortunately, this impacts long term price comparisons since the new contract was priced about 24% higher than the old random length contract for the period when both contracts were available. This graph shows CME random length framing futures through last August (blue), and the new physically-delivered Lumber Futures (LBR) contract starting in August 2022 (Red). LBR is currently at $505 per 1000 board feet, up slightly from a year ago.There is somewhat of a seasonal demand for lumber, and lumber prices frequently peak in the first half of the year.We didn't see a significant runup in the Spring period of 2023 or 2024 due to the housing slowdown.

BLS: CPI Increased 0.2% in August; Core CPI increased 0.3% --From the BLS: The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.2 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis, the same increase as in July, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 2.5 percent before seasonal adjustment. The index for shelter rose 0.5 percent in August and was the main factor in the all items increase. The food index increased 0.1 percent in August, after rising 0.2 percent in July. The index for food away from home rose 0.3 percent over the month, while the index for food at home was unchanged. The energy index fell 0.8 percent over the month, after being unchanged the preceding month. The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.3 percent in August, after rising 0.2 percent the preceding month. Indexes which increased in August include shelter, airline fares, motor vehicle insurance, education, and apparel. The indexes for used cars and trucks, household furnishings and operations, medical care, communication, and recreation were among those that decreased over the month. The all items index rose 2.5 percent for the 12 months ending August, the smallest 12-month increase since February 2021. The all items less food and energy index rose 3.2 percent over the last 12 months. The energy index decreased 4.0 percent for the 12 months ending August. The food index increased 2.1 percent over the last year. The change in CPI was at expectation and core CPI slightly above expectations. I'll post a graph later today after the Cleveland Fed releases the median and trimmed-mean CPI.

YoY Measures of Inflation: Services, Goods and Shelter - Here are a few measures of inflation: The first graph is the one Fed Chair Powell had mentioned when services less rent of shelter was up around 8% year-over-year. This declined and is now up 4.3% YoY. This graph shows the YoY price change for Services and Services less rent of shelter through August 2024. Services were up 4.8% YoY as of August 2024, down from 4.9% YoY in July. Services less rent of shelter was up 4.3% YoY in August, down from 4.6% YoY in July.The second graph shows that goods prices started to increase year-over-year (YoY) in 2020 and accelerated in 2021 due to both strong demand and supply chain disruptions.Durables were at -4.2% YoY as of August 2024, down from -4.1% YoY in July. Commodities less food and energy commodities were at -1.7% YoY in August, unchanged from -1.7% YoY in July.Here is a graph of the year-over-year change in shelter from the CPI report (through August) and housing from the PCE report (through July) Shelter was up 5.2% year-over-year in August, up from 5.0% in July. Housing (PCE) was up 5.3% YoY in July, down from 5.3% in June (rounded).The BLS noted: "The index for shelter rose 0.5 percent in August and was the main factor in the all items increase."This is still catching up with private data. Core CPI ex-shelter was up 1.7% YoY in August, down from 1.8% in July.

Early Look at 2025 Cost-Of-Living Adjustments and Maximum Contribution Base The BLS reported this morning: The Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W) increased 2.4 percent over the last 12 months to an index level of 308.640 (1982-84=100). For the month, the index was unchanged prior to seasonal adjustment.CPI-W is the index that is used to calculate the Cost-Of-Living Adjustments (COLA). The calculation dates have changed over time (see Cost-of-Living Adjustments), but the current calculation uses the average CPI-W for the three months in Q3 (July, August, September) and compares to the average for the highest previous average of Q3 months. Note: this is not the headline CPI-U and is not seasonally adjusted (NSA).
• In 2023, the Q3 average of CPI-W was 301.236. The 2023 Q3 average was the highest Q3 average, so we only have to compare Q3 this year to last year. This graph shows CPI-W since January 2000. The red lines are the Q3 average of CPI-W for each year. Note: The year labeled is for the calculation, and the adjustment is effective for December of that year (received by beneficiaries in January of the following year). CPI-W was up 2.4% year-over-year in August, and although this is early - we need the data for July, August and September - my guess is COLA will probably be around 2.4% this year, the smallest increase since 1.3% in 2021. The contribution base will be adjusted using the National Average Wage Index. This is based on a one-year lag. The National Average Wage Index is not available for 2023 yet, although we know wages increased solidly in 2023. If wages increased 5% in 2023, then the contribution base next year will increase to around $177,000 in 2025, from the current $168,600. Remember - this is an early look. What matters is average CPI-W, NSA, for all three months in Q3 (July, August and September).

Cleveland Fed: Median CPI increased 0.3% and Trimmed-mean CPI increased 0.2% in August -The Cleveland Fed released the median CPI and the trimmed-mean CPI. According to the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, the median Consumer Price Index rose 0.3% in August. The 16% trimmed-mean Consumer Price Index increased 0.2%. "The median CPI and 16% trimmed-mean CPI are measures of core inflation calculated by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland based on data released in the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ (BLS) monthly CPI report". This graph shows the year-over-year change for these four key measures of inflation. On a year-over-year basis, the median CPI rose 4.2% (down from 4.2% in July, rounded), the trimmed-mean CPI rose 3.2% (down from 3.3%), and the CPI less food and energy rose 3.2% (unchanged from 3.2%). Core PCE is for July was up 2.6% YoY, unchanged from 2.6% in June.Note: The Cleveland Fed released the median CPI details. Fuel oil and other fuels decreased at a 17% annual rate in August (and will likely decrease further in September).Rent and Owner's equivalent rent are still high, and if we exclude rent, median CPI would be around -1% month-over-month, annualized.

Beneath the Skin of CPI Inflation: “Core CPI” Again Accelerates Month-to-Month Fueled by Hot “Core Services” CPI. Durable Goods Prices Drop Further - Wolf Richter - On a month-to-month basis in a most unwelcome development, “core services” re-accelerated for the second month in a row in August, to 5.0% annualized, which fueled the re-acceleration of the overall Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Core CPI. Core Services make up about 65% of the Consumer Price Index and include housing, healthcare, and insurance. On the positive side of the inflation ledger were durable goods (motor vehicles, furniture, electronics, etc.), where prices dropped even faster in August, and energy, where prices dropped across the board, while food prices remained roughly stable, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics today. On a month-to-month basis:

• Overall CPI: +0.19% (+2.3% annualized), 2nd acceleration in a row.
• Core CPI: +0.28% (+3.4% annualized), 2nd acceleration in a row.
• Core Services CPI: +0.41% (+5.0% annualized), 2nd acceleration.
• Durable goods CPI: -0.36% (-4.3% annualized), a faster drop.
• Food at home CPI: unchanged.
• Energy: -0.78%, after being unchanged in July.

On a year-over-year basis, in summary: Core services CPI (red in the chart below) rose by 4.93% year-over-year in August, a slight acceleration from July (4.90%). It has been near the 5% line since December 2023. It includes all services except energy services. Durable goods CPI (green) has been falling since mid-2022 as it unwinds the historic spike during the pandemic. Used-vehicle prices have plunged. In August, durable goods CPI fell by 4.2% year-over-year, a downward acceleration from July, and the biggest year-over-year drop since 2003. Core CPI (blue), which excludes food and energy, rose by 3.20% year-over-year, a slight acceleration from July (3.17%), with services pushing it into one direction, and durable goods into the other. Overall CPI (yellow) rose by 2.5% year-over-year, a deceleration from July, on a drop in energy prices and stability in food prices. Core CPI accelerated for the second month in a row, by 0.28% in August from July, or +3.4% annualized, the biggest increase since April (blue in the chart below). The culprit for the re-acceleration was core services CPI, while the durable goods CPI continued to drop and pulled in the opposite direction. The six-month core CPI, which irons out some of the month-to-month squiggles, rose by 2.7% annualized, as slight deceleration from July, as the high reading of February fell out of the six-month range. “Core services” CPI bounced for the second month. Core services CPI increased by 5.0% annualized in August from July (+0.41% not annualized), the second big bounce-back from the outlier in June and May (blue line). The six-month core services CPI decelerated a tad to 4.1% annualized, the smallest increase since January 2022 (red). Rent of Primary Residence CPI decelerated, increasing by 4.5% annualized in August from July. It has been in the same range all year (blue). The three-month rate rose by 4.6%, a slight deceleration from the prior month. After cooling a lot in 2023, rent inflation hasn’t cooled much this year. Rent CPI accounts for 7.6% of overall CPI. It is based on rents that tenants actually paid, not on asking rents of advertised vacant units for rent. The survey follows the same large group of rental houses and apartments over time and tracks the rents that the current tenants, who come and go, actually paid in these units. The Owners’ Equivalent of Rent CPI bounced for the second month, rising by 6.1% annualized in August from July. The three-month OER CPI accelerated to 4.6% annualized (red). The OER index accounts for 26.8% of overall CPI. It estimates inflation of “shelter” as a service for homeowners – as a stand-in for the services that homeowners pay for, such as interest, homeowner’s insurance, HOA fees, maintenance, and property taxes. As an approximation, it is based on what a large group of homeowners estimates their home would rent for, the assumption being that a homeowner would want to recoup their cost increases by raising the rent. “Asking rents…” The Zillow Observed Rent Index (ZORI) and other private-sector rent indices track “asking rents,” which are advertised rents of vacant units on the market. Because rentals don’t turn over that much, the ZORI’s spike in 2021 through mid-2022 never fully translated into the CPI indices because not many people actually ended up paying those high asking rents. For August, the ZORI rose by 0.22% month-to-month and by 3.4% year-over-year. The chart shows the CPI Rent of Primary Residence (blue, left scale) as index value, not percentage change; and the ZORI in dollars (red, right scale). The left and right axes are set so that they both increase each by 55% from January 2017. The ZORI was up by 52% from January 2017, and the CPI Rent was up by 39% over the same period.

Producer Price Index: Wholesale Inflation Increases in August - Wholesale inflation grew more than expected last month. Here is the latest news release from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The producer price index for final demand increased 0.2% month-over-month (s.a.), more than the expected 0.1% growth. On a non-seasonally adjusted annual basis, headline PPI decelerated from 2.1% in July to 1.7% in August, coming in below the expected 1.8% growth. Core PPI (excluding food and energy) for final demand increased 0.3% last month, more than the expected 0.2% growth. On a non-seasonally adjusted annual basis, core PPI accelerated from 2.3% year-over-year in July to 2.4% in August, coming in below the expected 2.5% growth. Below is a chart of the historical series with a callout to the most recent 12 months. The BLS shifted its focus to its new "final demand" series in 2014, a shift I support. However, the data for these series are only constructed back to November 2009 for headline and April 2010 for core. Since our focus is on longer-term trends, we continue to track the legacy PPI for finished goods, which the BLS also includes in its monthly updates. We will see in a later overlay chart that the final demand and finished goods indexes are highly correlated. The August PPI for finished goods rose 0.2% month-over-month seasonally adjusted, down from the previous month's 0.5% decline. On an annual basis, headline PPI for finished goods is currently at 0.3% year-over-year, down from 1.9% the previous month (seasonally adjusted). Core PPI for finished goods rose 0.3% month-over-month, up from the 0.1% in the previous month. On an annual basis, core PPI for finished goods is currently at 2.3% year-over-year, up from the 2.1% in the previous month (seasonally adjusted).

Services PPI Bounces Back in August from July, Rises Year-over-Year. Core Goods PPI Jumps By Wolf Richter -- The Core Producer Price Index bounced back sharply in August from the negative reading in July that had been heralded as yet another sign that inflation was dead. So inflation is not dead. The bounce-back was driven by the massive bounce-back of the Services PPI and, very interestingly, a spike in the Finished Goods PPI. “Core” PPI jumped by 3.9% annualized in August from July, seasonally adjusted (blue in the chart below), driven by services (+4.6%), which dominate core PPI, and also by finished core goods (+4.1%), according to data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics today. The 6-month rate – which irons out some of the whiplash volatility of the month-to-month readings and includes the often-hefty revisions – remained at 2.8% in August, same as in July. Note how the 6-month rate shifted higher this year, after being well-behaved in much of 2023 near 2% (red). Year-over-year, core PPI rose by 2.4%, after the big deceleration in July that had been driven by the base effect in services that will abate for the remainder of the year. Services PPI jumped by 4.6% annualized in August from July, seasonally adjusted, after the negative reading in July (-3.7%) that had followed to hot readings in the prior months (blue in the chart below). The 6-month average rose 3.0% annualized, roughly the same increase as in July. Note how it shifted higher this year, after the lower readings last year. Year-over-year, the services PPI accelerated to 2.6% in August after the sharp deceleration in July that had been the result of the base effect, when the freak month-to-month spike of +9.9% annualized in July 2023 (highest in over two years) fell out of the 12-month range of the year-over-year readings and was replaced by the plunge of -3.7% annualized in July 2024 (the lowest since March 2020). Going forward, the low-to-negative month-to-month readings last year in August through December will come out of the 12-month range and be replaced by the readings going forward, and the base effect that rattled the index in July will fade out. “Finished core goods” PPI started to act up again in 2024, after being well-behaved in 2023. The 4.1% annualized jump in August from July was the biggest since February and the same as January 2024, and all three had been the highest since January/February 2023. As we have seen all around, there have been no major inflation pressures building up in core goods in over a year. Inflation has been largely wrung out of core goods. And core goods have been a big factor in bringing inflation down. So this spike in August is not welcome. But compared to the fiasco in 2021 and 2022, the current situation with core goods is benign: The PPI for “finished core goods” includes finished goods that companies buy but excludes food and energy products. Year-over-year, the finished core goods PPI accelerated to 2.3% in August from 2.1% in July, and the highest since February. Just a bump in the road, or a change in direction? A change in direction would be very unwelcome. The overall PPI for final demand jumped by 2.9% annualized in August from July, after a negative reading in July, as drops in energy prices softened the impact of jumping prices for services and core goods. The 6-month rate decelerated to an increase of 1.9% annualized. So, driven by the drop in energy prices, overall PPI looks normal. But energy prices cannot drop forever. The overall PPI tracks inflation in the goods and services that companies buy and ultimately try to pass on to their customers. Year-over-year, overall PPI rose by 1.7%, a deceleration from July and June. June had been the highest since February 2023:

Wholesale Used Car Prices Increased in August; Down 3.9% Year-over-year --From Manheim Consulting today: Wholesale Used-Vehicle Prices Increased in August - Wholesale used-vehicle prices (on a mix, mileage, and seasonally adjusted basis) were higher in August compared to July. The Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index (MUVVI) rose to 203.9, a decline of 3.9% from a year ago. The seasonal adjustment to the index mitigated the impact on the month, resulting in values that rose 1.2% month over month. The non-adjusted price in August increased by 2.2% compared to July, moving the unadjusted average price down 4.6% year over year..This index from Manheim Consulting is based on all completed sales transactions at Manheim’s U.S. auctions.The Manheim index suggests used car prices increased in August (seasonally adjusted) and were down 3.9% year-over-year (YoY).

This May Be the End of the Massive Deflation in Used Vehicles that Pushed Down Core CPI: Wholesale Prices Surge for 2nd Month amid Strong Sales Growth & Tight Inventories - Wolf Richter - Prices of used cars, SUVs, pickup trucks, and vans that were sold at auctions across the US jumped by 1.2% in August from July, seasonally adjusted, the second jump in a row after a long series of declines, according to today’s Used Vehicle Value Index by Manheim, which runs about 8 million vehicles a year through its auction lanes. The index is adjusted for changes in mix and mileage (red in the chart).Not seasonally adjusted, wholesale prices jumped by 2.2% in August from July, to $18,719, the second jump in a row after a long series of declines, which whittled down the year-over-year decline to 4.6%, the smallest year-over-year decline since May 2023 (the drops maxed out in the double digits earlier this year).This second month in a row of substantial price increases points at a potential end of the historic plunge of used-vehicle prices that unwound about half of the crazy 60% price spike during the pandemic. It indicates that used-vehicle prices may have hit bottom, that they may no longer push down CPI inflation as they’d done over the past two years, and that they may turn into an inflation headwind going forward. Dealers buy at these auctions to replenish their used-vehicle inventories. Supply comes from rental fleets that sell some of the vehicles they pull out of service, from finance companies that sell their off-lease vehicles and repos, from corporate and government fleets, other dealers, etc. The report by Manheim, a unit of Cox Automotive added:“The trend of higher wholesale values at Manheim continued into August from July, as we saw prices appreciate every week except the last.”“Sales conversion continued to rise and held at much higher levels than prior years for the month as more buyers came to markets to replenish supply for used retail inventory. We know lease maturities are on the decline, and used retail days’ supply has tightened over the last month. That will likely keep pressure on buyers at Manheim in the next several weeks.”Used vehicle retail sales, in terms of the number of units sold, have grown by the double digits year-over-year this year, and inventories have dwindled (more in a moment), so dealers are bidding up auction prices to restock their retail inventory, and as they sell those units at higher prices, those prices will eventually be reflected in the used-vehicle CPI.The 55% explosion of the used-vehicle CPI from mid-2020 through early 2022 was a strong contributor to the surge in core CPI inflation over that period. Since mid-2022, used vehicle prices have plunged – both wholesale prices depicted above and retail prices – and the used-vehicle CPI has given up over half of the price spike and has been a substantial force in pushing down core CPI inflation.Changes in wholesale prices – the prices dealers pay to restock their retail inventories – precede changes in retail prices as measured by the used-vehicle CPI by a couple of months as dealers try to pass on the higher costs to their customers.The used-vehicle CPI, seasonally adjusted and not seasonally adjusted, dropped in July (we’ll get August CPI on Wednesday). So, through July, the price increases at the auction have not yet translated into increases of the CPI as CPI lags wholesale prices by a couple of months, and wholesale prices first rose in July, and now in August. So far, the used-vehicle CPI has helped pushing down core CPI. But this will likely flip going forward – that’s what wholesale prices are telling us.

Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Increase to 230,000 --The DOL reported: In the week ending September 7, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 230,000, an increase of 2,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 227,000 to 228,000. The 4-week moving average was 230,750, an increase of 500 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised up by 250 from 230,000 to 230,250. The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971. The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims increased to 230,750. The previous week was revised up. Weekly claims were above the consensus forecast.

Unemployment Claims Up 2K, Worse Than Estimates Expected - In the week ending September 7th, initial jobless claims were at a seasonally adjusted level of 230,000. This represents an increase of 2,000 from the previous week's figure and is worse than the 227,000 economists were expecting.Here is the opening statement from the Department of Labor:In the week ending September 7, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 230,000, an increase of 2,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 227,000 to 228,000. The 4-week moving average was 230,750, an increase of 500 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised up by 250 from 230,000 to 230,250.The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 1.2 percent for the week ending August 31, unchanged from the previous week's unrevised rate. The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending August 31 was 1,850,000, an increase of 5,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up 7,000 from 1,838,000 to 1,845,000. The 4-week moving average was 1,852,500, a decrease of 2,250 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised up by 1,750 from 1,853,000 to 1,854,750.Here is a closer look at the series since 2007, with a callout to the past 12 months. The four-week moving average, which gives a clearer sense of the overall trend, is currently at 230,750. This is an increase of 500 from the previous week's figure.

Multiple Jobholders Account for 5.1% of All Employed - What are the long-term trends for multiple jobholders in the US? The Bureau of Labor Statistics has three decades of historical data to enlighten us on that topic, courtesy of table A-16 in the monthly Current Population Survey of households. In August, there were 8.236 million people working multiple jobs in the U.S. Multiple jobholders now account for 5.1% of civilian employment. The survey captures data for four subcategories (in pie chart at right) of the multi-job workforce, the relative sizes of which are illustrated in a pie chart. The distinction between "primary" and "secondary" jobs is a subjective one determined by the survey participants.Not included in the statistics are the approximately 0.03% of the employed who work part-time on what they consider their primary job and full time on their secondary job(s).Let's review the complete series to help us get a sense of the long-term trends. Here is a look at all the multiple jobholders as a percent of the civilian employed. The dots are the non-seasonally adjusted monthly data points. Multiple jobholders have accounted for 5.0% or more of total employed persons for 11 straight months, the longest streak since the runup to the 2020 pandemic (17 months).However, the monthly data points can be quite volatile so we've added a 12-month moving average to highlight the trend. The moving average peaked in the summer of 1997 and then began trending downward. The moving average hovered slightly below 5% between the last two recessions before dropping to as low as 4.4% in 2021. Since then, it has been trending upwards and is now pushing above pre-pandemic levels. The moving average currently sits at 5.19%, its highest level since December 2009.

Judge blocks Utah social media age-verification law - A federal judge on Tuesday blocked Utah from enforcing an ambitious new law that would have required social media companies to verify people’s ages, apply privacy settings and impose certain restrictions on minors. U.S. District Judge Robert Shelby issued the preliminary injunction against the Utah Minor Protection in Social Media Act, which was set to take effect Oct. 1. The judge said the defendant, NetChoice, is “substantially likely to succeed” on its claim that the law is unconstitutional because it violates the First Amendment. NetChoice is a nonprofit trade association for internet companies including Google, Snap Inc., X, and Meta, which owns Facebook and Instagram. The law will be blocked pending the outcome of the group’s case. Supporters of the new law say the legislation is a key step aimed at reversing the worrying mental health trends pervasive among children and teens in states across the country. Experts, and even social media users themselves, often point to the platforms as contributing factors to their worsening mental health. The legislation also replaces similar laws that were passed in 2023 but then were challenged as unconstitutional. “The court recognizes the State’s earnest desire to protect young people from the novel challenges associated with social media use,” Shelby wrote in the order. “But owing to the First Amendment’s paramount place in our democratic system, even well-intentioned legislation that regulates speech based on content must satisfy a tremendously high level of constitutional scrutiny,” he continued. “And on the record before the court, Defendants have yet to show the Act does.” Republican Utah Gov. Spencer Cox, who has championed the cause behind the social media legislation, said he was disappointed in the decision Tuesday. Cox said, however, that he expected a long battle, but “it is a battle worth waging, as the harm social media is causing our children continues.” “Let’s be clear: social media companies could voluntarily, at this very moment, do everything that the law put in place to protect our children. But they refuse to do so. Instead, they continue to prioritize their profits over our children’s wellbeing,” Cox continued in a post on social platform X. “This must stop, and Utah will continue to lead the fight.” The state’s attorney general, Sean Reyes, also said he was disappointed but said his office was “analyzing the ruling to determine next steps.” “We remain committed to protecting Utah’s youth from social media’s harmful effects,” Reyes added in an emailed statement.

New details emerge about warnings before Georgia school shooting - In the week since the massacre at Apalachee High School in Winder, Georgia, in which two students and two teachers were killed and nine others injured, new details have emerged about the 14-year-old shooter Colt Gray and his family. On Saturday, the Washington Post reported that the teen’s mother, Marcee Gray, informed family members that she had called the school on the morning of the shooting and warned a counselor about an “extreme emergency” involving her son. The Post says that it obtained copies of text messages and a phone call log which shows a ten-minute call from the mother’s phone to the school starting at 9:50 a.m., approximately 30 minutes before the shooting started on September 4. In one text message, Marcee Gray told her sister, “I was the one that notified the school counselor at the high school. I told them it was an extreme emergency and for them to go immediately and find [my son] to check on him.” The Post report says that the sister, Annie Brown, described a discussion between Marcee Gray and the school counselor in which the counselor said that the boy “had been talking about a school shooting that morning.” In an interview with ABC News on Wednesday, Marcee Gray explained, “The counselor said, ‘I wanted to let you know that earlier this morning, one of Colt’s teachers had sent me an email saying Colt had been making references to school shootings.’ … Between my gut feelings, the text messages, and now this email, you need to, like, run to the classroom.” In a separate interview, a fellow student Lyela Sayarath told the Post that a school administrator came to the math classroom looking for another student with a name similar to Colt Gray. The report says, “Neither student was in the room, and the official left with a backpack belonging to the similarly named student, she said. The shooting began minutes later.” Marcee Gray said that she was prompted to call the school after receiving a text message from her son that said, “I’m sorry.” Additionally, the text messages showed that the school and family had been communicating a week before the shooting about Colt Gray’s mental health. Text messages from Annie Brown to a relative said that the teen was having “homicidal and suicidal thoughts.” Brown also said previously that her nephew had requested mental health care for months and that “adults around him failed him.” The conditions in the home were difficult, with Marcee Gray pleading guilty in December to a charge of family violence, and ordered to have limited contact with her son. The Post reported that in 2022 the Grays were evicted from their home and the parents had separated. State authorities said that the family has also had contacts with Georgia’s child welfare agency. Representatives of the Barrow County School District, the Barrow County Sheriff’s Office, the Georgia Bureau of Investigation and Piedmont Judicial Court District Attorney Brad Smith declined to answer questions about the latest news reports.

Dodgers Kowtow To Teachers Unions, Honor 'Sisters Of Perpetual Indulgence' -- The “Sisters of Perpetual Indulgence,” according to Catholic Vote, is “a vile anti-Catholic organization.” Their motto is “Go and sin some more” and they use the cross for pole dances. The group satirizes Catholic beliefs for the sake of activism. They mockEaster Sunday with a Hunky Jesus/Foxy Mary contest. According to the Catholic League, they hold “Midnight Confessional Contests” awarding the “hottest confessions.” So it makes sense that Dodgers fans came unglued when they heard their team would be rewarding the anti-Catholic, anti-Christian group. The Dodgers withdrew their award in response to customer outrage and disinvited the “Sisters,” but the California Teachers Association stepped in and strong-armed the Dodgers into standing with perverts against the will of their paying customers. CTA’s May 2023 New Business Item states, “CTA shall release a public statement condemning the Dodgers’ recent decision to rescind the Community Hero Award for the Sisters of Perpetual Indulgence.” As veteran California teachers who’ve served within the unions and personally witnessed the radical agenda CTA imposes upon teachers, we find it suspicious that while the Dodgers are taking so much rightful heat for their June 16 celebration of the offensive “Sisters,” the CTA is getting away scot-free. CTA’s offensive intrusion into America’s national pastime and its endorsement of drag queens mocking nuns is scandalous. That’s why discerning Americans have had enough and are rising up in protest against teacher unions. As Father Sebastian Walshe of St. Michael’s Abbey in the Diocese of Orange expresses, “The statement of the CTA should alarm every Catholic parent who sends their children to California public schools. No school should be a place where children are sexualized or taught anti-Catholic prejudice.” The CTA rationalizes its stance with: “The Dodgers decision is rooted in the same bigotry that’s led to the LGBTQIA+ books being banned, drag shows being criminalized, and life-saving medical care being taken away from minors.” But this is a deceptive statement.Americans are pushing back on pornographic books, drag queen events, and sex transition surgeries on children because these things are destructive to children and an affront to families and American values.Catholics are not the only Americans offended by the CTA’s endorsement. Jews, Muslims, Protestants and teachers like us are outraged as well.Rabbi Dov Fischer, a senior congregational rabbi and law professor in California comments in his EdSource article, “The state’s school system, established to provide a safe learning climate for all students regardless of their ethnicity, race, language or religious affiliation, is now [thanks to unions] a social laboratory where students and families from devout faiths feel ostracized.”Dr. Ahmed Soboh, the Chairman of the Islamic Shura Council of Southern California, an umbrella organization of 67 mosques throughout California, agreed with the rabbi: “Making fun of religious symbols or mocking religious figures should not be celebrated, especially by those who have the honorable job of educating our children.”Most teachers would agree with the reasonable statements of Father Walshe, Rabbi Fischer, and Imam Soboh. However, the CTA does not represent the majority of teachers. CTA’s endorsement of the “Sisters” is offensive to most teachers, and it demonstrates the radical, out-of-touch views of CTA leadership.Families of faith have good reason to be appalled since CTA – and its national arm NEA – misrepresent most teachers while controlling the trajectory of public education. Sahara Medrano, a dedicated veteran teacher and a minority representative of the California Teachers’ Union State Council, sees the red flags: “It’s becoming increasingly clear that a politically charged anti-Christian culture of religious intolerance is spreading throughout public school districts across our nation. If this trend continues, our public school system will break confidence with the religious community they are entrusted to serve. Students of faith are starting to boldly speak out saying they don’t feel safe in public schools.”Teachers don’t feel safe either. And we have to ask, what does forcing the Dodgers into submission to a political agenda that harms children have to do with representing us as educators?As public school teachers who’ve also served in Christian ministry for years, we commend Muslims, Jews, Catholics, and Protestants for collectively taking a stand for true religious tolerance, by standing against the religious intolerance of CTA. And we’re calling on teachers to join in protest too.

Boston University resident assistants strike, joining grad students striking since March - Resident assistants at Boston University went on strike August 31 over an impasse in negotiations with BU for better pay and working conditions. RAs supervise dormitories, provide guidance and act as a resource to students in university housing. This challenging work is done on top of RAs carrying out their own academic responsibilities. Nearly 300 BU RAs joined Service Employees International Union (SEIU) Local 509 in 2023 in hopes of securing better working conditions and pay. They are asking for a fair stipend for every semester they work on par with payments received by student RAs at other area colleges. Currently, BU RAs receive little remuneration beyond a credit covering housing costs and in some cases meal plans. Most US colleges provide housing and meal plan credits to RAs in addition to stipends and hourly wages. Some RAs at BU receive a paltry $9-$14 a week stipend, depending on the number of students in their dorm. The RA strike cannot be separated from the ongoing struggle of the graduate workers at the university. Three thousand BU graduate students, organized in the same SEIU local, went on strike in March for improved pay and benefits and still have not reached an agreement with the university, basically having been abandoned by the SEIU apparatus. Graduate workers teach classes, lead discussion sessions and grade student work, among other roles at the university. They perform this work—at a fraction of the cost of paying a professor—while working toward a higher degree or conducting research. Currently, BU graduate workers are paid between $27,318 for eight months to $40,977 for 12 months of work, less than the $46,918 median cost of living in Boston, where the average one-bedroom apartment rents for over $3,000 a month. Since the 1980s there has been a major shift in academia away from full-time workers to part-time and student work, in an effort by colleges to reduce teaching costs. The SEIU union leadership has kept the demands of graduate workers low and failed to challenge BU with a full show of strength. Only a small fraction of graduate workers remain on strike, around 500 of them as of May, with many continuing to fulfill their roles at the university. The minority of striking grad students are having their pay withheld by the university and the union is only providing strike pay of $40 per day. Workers must provide documentation to the union that they have performed strike-related work for four hours each day for which they are claiming strike pay, topping out at a maximum of $200 a week. So far, the university has been unmoved by the union’s largely ineffective strike, as of August offering only an increase to $45,000 for a 12-month stipend and an increase from $15 to $20 an hour minimum pay for hourly workers. The contract offer includes only a 3 percent increase a year over its proposed five-year period, an “increase” that would be quickly eaten up by inflation. SEIU Local 509 has 20,000 members in Massachusetts working in education and human services. The international union has about 2 million members across the US, with enormous funds available given a nearly $300 million annual revenue from dues. If the SEIU were serious about winning substantial pay increases and benefits for graduate workers and RAs, it would unite their struggles and organize solidarity strikes at other workplaces. As for the striking resident assistants, BU announced September 5 that it would charge striking RAs housing and food costs for every day they are on strike. Jason Campbell-Foster, dean of students stated contemptuously that these charges would constitute an “educational experience for students. They are not accustomed to formalized labor relations, and this is one of the impacts of choosing not to work.” BU has offered only a $1,000 stipend per semester over the course of negotiations, substantially less than what is paid to RAs at other private schools in the Boston Area. RAs at Tufts University receive $1,425 a semester, while Emerson College RAs receive up to $1,600 a semester. Even these payments are only a drop in the bucket considering the skyrocketing costs of tuition and living in the Boston area.

Penn joins Harvard in ending socio-political statements -The University of Pennsylvania joined Harvard University in ending sociopolitical statements, introducing a new policy following the resignation of the school’s president and police removing a pro-Palestinian encampment. The news of the decision was announced Tuesday by the school’s administrators, when they informed the campus community that the school will stop issuing statements in response to world and local events, except “those which have direct and significant bearing on University functions.” “It is not the role of the institution to render opinions — doing so risks suppressing the creativity and academic freedom of our faculty and students,” the Ivy League school’s administrators wrote in a statement that was emailed to the university community. “Even as they seem to provide emotional support to individuals in our communities, institutional pronouncements undermine the diversity of thought that strengthens us and that is central to our missions,” the administrators said. The school’s new approach comes as the school’s previous president, Liz Magill, resigned in early December last year after the criticism she received for her comments during a House hearing on the rise of antisemitism on college campuses. The Ivy League school also issued new temporary rules in June last year around protests after arresting more than 30 people on its Philadelphia campus. The new rules ban overnight demonstrations and encampments “in any University location, regardless of space (indoor or outdoor). Unauthorized overnight activities will be considered trespassing and addressed.” Harvard announced in late May this year that the school will no longer comment on issues unrelated to the “core function” of the school. Haverford College shared that the school made a similar decision, saying in late August this year its president will forgo “issuing presidential ‘statements’ except about matters that directly impact Haverford or higher education.” “The University will issue messages on local or world events rarely, and only when those events lie within our operational remit,” University of Pennsylvania administrators said.

Navient banned from federal student loan servicing - The government’s top consumer watchdog is banning Navient from federal student loan servicing and ordering the company to pay $120 million for alleged lending failures. The settlement announced Thursday comes almost eight years after the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) sued Navient, formerly part of Sallie Mae, in 2017. The CFPB accused the loan-servicing giant of harming student loan borrowers by misleading them about income-driven repayment plans, mishandling payment processing and tarnishing the credit of disabled borrowers whose loans had been discharged, among other allegations. At the time, Navient was the largest loan servicer for the U.S. Department of Education. But in 2021, the company announced it would no longer service federal loans. Under the terms of the settlement, Navient will be barred from ever again competing to service federal student loans. “Today we are closing the book on Navient, one of the worst offenders in the student loan servicing industry, and a company that has harmed millions of borrowers across the country,” CFPB Director Rohit Chopra told reporters Thursday morning. In addition to a $20 million penalty, Navient will be required to pay $100 million in redress, to be distributed among hundreds of thousands of borrowers. “This agreement puts these decade-old issues behind us. While we do not agree with the CFPB’s allegations, this resolution is consistent with our go-forward activities and is an important positive milestone in our transformation of the company,” Navient said in a statement.

North Dakota judge strikes down state’s abortion ban -A North Dakota judge struck down the state’s near-total ban on abortions Thursday, ruling the law was unconstitutionally vague and infringed on women’s medical freedom. “The North Dakota Constitution guarantees each individual, including women, the fundamental right to make medical judgments affecting his or her bodily integrity, health, and autonomy, in consultation with a chosen health care provider free from government interference,” District Judge Bruce Romanick ruled. “Pregnant women in North Dakota have a fundamental right to choose abortion before viability exists.” Advocates said they expect the ruling to take effect in the coming weeks, meaning abortion will be legal in the state. However, there are no freestanding abortion clinics left in North Dakota. The Red River Women’s Clinic, one of the plaintiffs in the lawsuit, was the last such clinic in the state, but it moved from Fargo to Moorhead, Minn., in 2022 following the Supreme Court’s Dobbs decision that overturned Roe v. Wade. North Dakota Attorney General Drew Wrigley (R) said he would appeal Thursday’s decision. “The State of North Dakota will appeal this ruling because Judge Romanick’s opinion inappropriately casts aside the law crafted by the legislative branch of our government and ignores the applicable and controlling case law previously announced by the North Dakota Supreme Court,” Wrigley said in a statement. Romanick, who was reelected in a nonpartisan race in 2018, also said the law was unconstitutionally vague because the medical exceptions defined in the statute were unclear and violated the due process of physicians. A physician can exercise “reasonable medical standard” for a medical exception but would still be at risk of going to jail if another doctor disagrees. “As written, it can have a profound chilling effect on the willingness of physicians to perform abortions,” Romanick wrote. He previously ruled against the state’s abortion ban last year, saying the constitution includes the right to obtain an abortion “to preserve the woman’s life or health.” As a result, North Dakota lawmakers revised the law to ban abortion in all cases except incest or “gross sexual imposition” if the woman has been pregnant for less than six weeks, or to prevent death or a serious health risk.

Covid-19 is now the 10th leading cause of death -- Last week, CDC published 2023 provisional data on causes of death. This is basically a first draft of data—the numbers may shift with more death certificate reviews, but they typically don’t change dramatically. What did CDC find? Last year Covid-19 plunged to the 10th leading cause of death—down from 4th in 2022 and 3rd in 2021. When looking at raw numbers, there was a nearly 70% decrease in one year! (245,614 deaths in 2022 vs. 76,446 in 2023.) We’ve come a long way. This dramatic decline in deaths wasn’t just in the U.S. We’ve seen deaths plunge across the globe thanks to immunity (from vaccination and infection) and treatments like monoclonal antibodies and antivirals. While this is incredible news, Covid-19 is still more deadly than flu. Below is the percentage of deaths attributed to flu (blue) and Covid-19 (orange). We still see a whole lot more orange compared to blue.This is the case across almost all ages except between 1- 14 years old.However, death surveillance may be biased. For example, more people may write Covid-19 on death certificates than flu.So, the Veterans Affairs St. Louis Health Care System examined health records of 11,000 patients this past 2023-2024 season. They found that 6% of patients hospitalized with Covid-19 died within 30 days of admission versus 4% of patients with flu. In other words, the risk of death from Covid-19 was 35% higher than from flu among hospitalized patients. However, there are two silver linings:

1. The gap between flu and Covid-19 is decreasing. In the prior year (2022), scientists noted a 60% higher risk of death for hospitalized Covid-19 patients.
2. Hospital outcomes are becoming more similar. Another study compared hospital outcomes of patients in 2021 (Delta) to 2022 (Omicron) and found that the severity of outcomes decreased, meaning that fewer and fewer people had to be admitted to the ICU, fewer received invasive treatment, and fewer died over time.

While the threat of severe Covid-19 to our individual lives might have decreased, the burden on our healthcare system and economy continues to persist. A report from McKinsey & Company estimated endemic Covid-19 would add $220 billion to our total healthcare costs by 2027, mostly driven by outpatient costs.Although Covid-19 is still more severe than flu, it’s important to remember that flu causes a lot of preventable morbidity and mortality. Each year, between 140,000 and 710,000 are hospitalized for flu in the U.S., and 12,000 to 52,000 Americans die. The economic burden of flu is estimated at $11.2 billion per year.

As over 1 million Americans continue to be infected with COVID each day, updated vaccines belatedly rolled out - There continues to be 1.1 million COVID-19 infections per day, according to the Pandemic Mitigation Collaborative (PMC)’s forecast model, which is based on the latest wastewater surveillance data from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). The PMC model forecasts that SARS-CoV-2 transmission will continue at over 1 million infections per day for the next month. These levels are the highest for the months of August and September for the entire pandemic to date.The PMC model has been updated with the latest report from version 2.0.0 to 2.0.1, with the major change being the elimination of the BioBot wastewater surveillance data. BioBot has not updated in over 3 weeks, nor has it explained why it is no longer reporting public data or whether and when it will resume doing so.Other indicators tracked by the CDC are also at high levels. The percentage of positive COVID-19 tests is 16.7 percent, which far exceeds a best practice threshold of 5 percent. This is the highest test positivity rate in over a year, and it means that far too little testing is being done given the high levels of transmission. Nevertheless, current CDC recommendations for testing do not urge or recommend individuals to get tested whatsoever, let alone if one is symptomatic or has been exposed. The CDC merely provides guidance for those who are self-motivated in getting tested.Other indicators include that 2.3 percent of emergency department visits, 4.6 percent of hospitalizations, and 2.6 percent of deaths are due to COVID-19. The official emergency department, hospitalization and death rates—all known to be under-counts due to the dismantling of testing and pandemic surveillance—are higher than this time last year.New viral variants that emerged this spring now make up an estimated 80 percent of all infections per CDC data. These variants evolved to escape existing immunity from prior infections and vaccinations, which is why transmission levels are so high at the current time. The predominant SARS-CoV-2 variant is the KP.3.1.1 variant, accounting for 42 percent of all infections.Despite the rapid emergence and growth of the newer KP.2.3, KP.3, and KP.3.1.1 variants, the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) and vaccine manufacturers originally agreed to update vaccines to cover the rapidly fading JN.1 variant. However, the explosive growth of the newer variants caused FDA to change its mind and urge that vaccines cover the KP.2 strain.Although the change in recommendation was not expected to delay availability of vaccines, the shortsightedness of planning for a “Fall vaccine campaign” is remarkable. COVID-19 has surged during every summer of the pandemic to date, and the new variants grew rapidly. The FDA did not approve the new KP.2-based vaccines from Pfizer and Moderna until August 23, which is concurrent with what the PMC model predicts will be either the highest or second highest transmission level of the summer.However, as early as late April, researchers had identified that the KP.2 variant “…demonstrates significantly enhanced epidemiological fitness compared to its predecessors, including the dominant XBB lineage.” By early April 2024, KP.2 already made up 20 percent of infections in the UK.This begs the question, why did vaccine manufacturers not have the new vaccines ready for the inevitable summer surge, and especially in light of the explosion of infections due to the new variants? The answer is rooted in the criminal “forever COVID” policy of the ruling class. Neither the FDA, nor the vaccine manufacturers, nor the politicians saw any urgency in protecting the public from the new strains.Thus, the new vaccines, although certainly a welcome development, are too late for the tens of millions of individuals already infected this summer with the new variants. As noted by the September 9 PMC report: “The impact on potential Long COVID cases the next month will be staggering…”After the FDA approval of August 23, CVS announced availability of the vaccine at its stores on August 28, and Walgreens announced availability beginning on September 6. Both dates are after the two peaks in daily COVID-19 transmission noted by PMC, August 10 and August 24. Now that the vaccines are available, the CDC has updated its recommendations for vaccination, stating “Everyone ages 6 months and older should get a 2024–2025 COVID-19 vaccine.” This low level of urgency for vaccination is anemic even for CDC standards, compared to advisories it issued on the Health Alert Network urging COVID-19 vaccination.

US COVID activity remains elevated, though some markers decline - COVID-19 activity stayed elevated across the United States last week, with wastewater SARS-CoV-2 detections highest in the West, where levels are trending upward again, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) said today in its latest weekly data updates. Other indicators, however, showed small declines, including test positivity, which was at 14.9% last week, down 1.6% from the previous week. Levels are highest in the central states, which include Iowa, Kansas, Missouri, and Nebraska. Emergency department visits declined last week but are still at the moderate level in a few southeastern states. Hospitalization levels for COVID are stillelevated but have been declining since early August. The CDC said the highest levels are in seniors and in children younger than 2 years old. Deaths declined 8% compared to the previous week, and fatalities from COVID currently make up 2.3% of all deaths. The CDC received reports of 534 COVID deaths last week, based on provisional data. During the preceding week, 954 deaths were reported. WastewaterSCAN, a national wastewater monitoring system based at Stanford University in partnership with Emory University, said yesterday that SARS-CoV-2 detections are still at the high level nationally, with no clear trend over the past 3 weeks. It noted that the South and the Midwest are in the medium category. Also today, the CDC released its latest variant projections, which show another steady rise in KP.3.1.1 proportions. The Omicron subvariant now makes up 52.7% of sequenced samples, up from 40% 2 weeks earlier.

New report: COVID more severe, longer-lasting than other respiratory diseases -- Healthcare workers (HCWs) with COVID-19 had more severe symptoms that lasted longer than those with other respiratory diseases, and a higher proportion met the World Health Organization (WHO) or UK National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) definitions of long COVID, according to a report published in Viruses and Viral Diseases.A team led by Murdoch Children's Research Institute investigators in Parkville, Australia, also identified older age, chronic respiratory disease, and pre-existing symptoms as risk factors for long COVID, also known as post-acute COVID-19 syndrome (PACS).The researchers analyzed data on long-COVID symptoms, duration, and pre-existing symptoms from the multinational randomized controlled trial (RCT) BRACE trial on HCWs diagnosed as having COVID-19 or another respiratory illness for 1 year after diagnosis.Participants were tested for COVID-19 infection if they reported symptoms, gave blood samples every 3 months for evaluation for SARS-CoV-2 antibodies, and completed quarterly surveys. A subsample of 184 COVID-19 and 184 non-COVID controls were also chosen for a case-control analysis of daily symptom data with an extended pre- and post-infection follow-up period.BRACE is a phase 3 RCT assessing the effect of bacillus Calmette-Guérin (BCG) tuberculosis vaccination on COVID-19 infection in HCWs in Australia, Brazil, the Netherlands, Spain, and the United Kingdom from March 2020 to April 2021.The 593 COVID-infected HCWs had significantly more severe disease than 1,112 participants with other respiratory illnesses (odds ratio [OR], 7.4). The persistence of symptoms met both the NICE and WHO long-COVID definitions in a higher proportion of COVID-19 survivors than those with other respiratory diseases (2.5% vs 0.5%, respectively; odds ratio [OR], 6.6 for NICE and 8.8% vs 3.7%; OR, 2.5 for WHO)..COVID-19 participants had a greater symptom range and duration than controls and most often reported fatigue, muscle aches, headache, and loss of taste and/or smell, which the researchers said is consistent with the more extensive systemic COVID-19 effects. "These findings support the histopathological evidence of an exuberant immune reaction associated with SARS-CoV-2 infection," they wrote.For the COVID-19 group, age 40 to 59 years (adjusted OR [aOR], 2.8), chronic respiratory disease (aOR, 5.5), and pre-existing symptoms (aOR, 3.0) were risk factors for long COVID. Some participants also reported that they had long-COVID symptoms (32% with fatigue and muscle aches and 11% with intermittent cough and shortness of breath)."Consideration of the association between pre-existing symptoms and PACS is important for understanding the aetiology and pathophysiology of PACS, and managing patients with ongoing symptoms," the researchers wrote.

Cancer diagnoses lagged into year 2 of pandemic -- Cancer diagnoses in the United States dropped almost 10% below expected rates in 2020 as people missed annual screenings, and medical clinics closed in the early months of the pandemic.New research from the University of Kansas published late last week in JAMA Network Open suggests the lag of diagnoses carried into 2021. And, in the first 2 years of the pandemic, the country saw almost 150,000 potentially undiagnosed cancer cases."Unfortunately, this research shows that rates of cancer incidence in the U.S. have not rebounded as well as we would have hoped after the second year of the pandemic," said first study author Todd Burus, MAS, in a University of Kentucky press release. "While we still don't know what impact this will have on long-term outcomes, prolonged disruptions in diagnoses of certain cancers are certainly concerning and something that needs to be addressed."Earlier this year, Burus and senior author Krystle Lang Kuhs, PhD, MPH, both from the Markey Cancer Prevention and Control Research Program at the University of Kentucky, published research showing an estimated 134,000 missed cancer diagnoses in the first 10 months of the COVID-19 pandemic.The new study builds on those findings and uses data from the National Cancer Institute's Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results 22 (SEER-22) to track cancer rates of invasive cancer diagnosed from January 1, 2020 through December 31, 2021. The SEER-22 database covers 47.9% of the US population.Overall, SEER-22 registries noted 1,578,697 cancer cases in 2020 and 2021. Cancer incidence rates were 9.4% lower than expected in 2020 (95% prediction interval [PI], 8.5% to 10.5%), 2.7% lower than expected in 2021 (95% PI, 1.4% to 3.9%), and 6.0% lower than expected across both years combined (95% PI, 5.1% to 7.1%), the authors said.Eleven types of cancer were included in the database registry, and five of these types showed significant lags in diagnoses through 2021: lung, cervical, kidney, and bladder cancer and lymphoma. Lung cancer diagnoses were 9.1% lower than expected, and cervical cancer diagnoses 4.5% lower. Early-stage diagnoses especially were lagging for lung and cervical cancers.Of cancers commonly detected through annual screenings, only female breast cancer showed significant recovery in 2021, exceeding expected rates by 2.5% (95% PI, 0.1% to 4.8%). By the end of 2021, rates of cancer diagnoses for women, adults ages 65 and older, and non-Hispanic Asian and Pacific Islanders returned to prepandemic levels."Despite experiencing less disruption than in 2020, we estimate that overall diagnoses of new cancer cases still fell short of expected levels during the second year of the pandemic," the authors wrote. "Continued reductions in early-stage lung and cervical cancer rates are particularly concerning, as is the nonsignificant suggestion of increased rates of late-stage diagnoses among 3 of the 4 screening-detected cancers."Overall, our findings suggest that pandemic-related disruptions to cancer diagnoses in the US lasted well beyond the first few months of 2020."

Hospital caseload strain may have contributed to 1 in 5 COVID deaths - Hospital caseload strain may have contributed to 1 in 5 COVID deaths ---Strain from hospital caseloads played a role in one in five COVID-19 deaths, even after acilities had weathered and learned from earlier virus waves, researchers based at the US National Institutes of Health Clinical Center reported today.One of their goals was to examine if fatal outcomes for COVID patients varied by different hospital types, from larger, more advanced facilities to smaller hospitals. Reporting in the Annals of Internal Medicine, they found that high caseloads had a negative impact on survival across all four hospital types they looked at.Using information from a large database of hospitals, they analyzed COVID patient load and outcomes at 620 hospitals during the Delta variant wave, which occurred from June to December 2021. The team classified hospitals into four types: extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO) capable, ones with multiple intensive care units (ICUs), facilities with a single large ICU, and those with one small ICU.They also used a validated surge index that factored in severity of COVID caseload relative to hospital bed capacity. They examined how the surges affected hospital deaths and discharges to hospice.Despite improvements in patient care by the time the Delta wave hit, the probability of death rose 5.51% (95% confidence interval, 4.53% to 6.50%) per surge index unit increase, which suggests that the workload strain was a contributing factor in one in five COVID deaths. The authors noted that the findings held steady across the four facility types, even when adjusting for factors such as patient transfers. They said their investigation is the first to examine the effect of hospital type and infrastructure on the quality of care for COVID patients amid caseload stress. Study findings yield insights for ongoing staff shortages at US hospitals and underscore the importance of minimizing caseload surges during future public health crises.

COVID-19 after vaccination doesn't raise risk of autoimmune disease, data suggest -- A studyof 1.8 million adults published in JAMA Network Open suggests that—except for a slightly highe r risk of inflammatory bowel disease and blistering skin disorders in a subgroup hospitalized for SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant infection—Delta or Omicron BA.1 or BA.2 infection in highly vaccinated adults doesn't significantly raise the long-term risk of autoimmune diseases. Led by investigators from the National Centre for Infectious Diseases in Singapore, the study team used the SARS-CoV-2 registry and a healthcare claims database to compare the long-term risk of new autoimmune diseases after Delta or Omicron BA.1 or BA.2 infection in recipients of COVID-19 vaccines and boosters with that in uninfected controls. The study period was September 2021 to March 2022, with a 300-day follow-up. Of all participants, 27.2% had COVID-19, 72.8% were controls, 51.9% were women, and the average age was 49 years. "Studies have reported increased risk of autoimmune sequelae after SARS-CoV-2 infection," the researchers wrote. "However, risk may potentially be attenuated by milder Omicron (B.1.1.529) variant infection and availability of booster vaccination." During Delta predominance, 104,179 participants had COVID-19 infections and 666,575 were controls, while 375,903 and 619,379 controls, respectively were infected during Omicron predominance. A total of 81.1% of infected participants had completed the primary two-dose COVID-19 mRNA vaccine series amid the Delta era, and 74.6% received boosters during the Omicron period. A significantly higher risk of 12 studied autoimmune diseases wasn't observed during the Delta or Omicron periods, except for inflammatory bowel disease (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR], 2.23) and bullous (blistering) skin disorders (aHR, 4.88) in hospitalized COVID-19 patients amid Omicron. An elevated risk of vasculitis was documented in vaccinated Omicron patients (aHR, 5.74) but not those who received boosters. The study authors concluded, "Continued surveillance for autoimmune conditions arising after COVID-19 is still necessary during the Omicron variant era."

Pandemic stress may have contributed to permanent changes in teen brains - A study published yesterday in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, suggests that lockdowns and school closures may have prematurely aged the brains of adolescents—especially girls— who experienced significant stressors and changes in the early months of the COVID-19 pandemic.The study came from researchers at the University of Washington who began a longitudinal study of magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) of the brain in 160 teens between 9 and 17 years in 2018. The study was originally meant to document age-related structural changes during adolescence. Participants were meant to undergo MRI brain scans every 2 years.But the study halted in 2020 when the pandemic began. Soon, however, researchers began to see value in looking at the brain during the pandemic, and in 2021, 3 years after the first images, 81% of the original cohort returned for another MRI."Once the pandemic was underway, we started to think about which brain measures would allow us to estimate what the pandemic lockdown had done to the brain," said Neva Corrigan, PhD, lead author and research scientist at the University of Washington’s Institute for Learning & Brain Sciences in a press release from that university. "What did it mean for our teens to be at home rather than in their social groups—not at school, not playing sports, not hanging out?"They built a model based on 2018 images of what brains scans should have shown in 2021, then compared that result to images taken.The authors found significant evidence of excessive and premature cortical thinning, which occurs with age and is accelerated by stress. When compared to the models built using 2018 images, the thinning showed that the first year of the pandemic aged teen brains by 4.2 years for girls and 1.4 years for boys.The difference in the mean acceleration between girls and boys was 2.8 years."Whereas this thinning was found to be widespread throughout the female brain, occurring in 30 brain regions across both hemispheres and all lobes of the brain, we found it to be limited to only two regions in the male brain, both located in the occipital lobe," the authors wrote.Girls' brains showed significant thinning in the bilateral fusiform, the left insula, and the left superior temporal cortex—all areas of the brain associated with social cognition. The authors speculate that social isolation during the early months of the pandemic hit girls the hardest."What the pandemic really seems to have done is to isolate girls. All teenagers got isolated, but girls suffered more. It affected their brains much more dramatically," said Patrica Kuhl, PhD, from the University of Washington.The cortical thinning, which is associated with depression and anxiety, is unlikely to correct or re-thicken. "It is possible that there might be some recovery," Kuhl said. "On the other hand, it’s also possible to imagine that brain maturation will remain accelerated in these teens."

Long-COVID rate among disabled people double that of able-bodied --Over 40% of COVID-19 survivors who had disabilities before the pandemic had symptoms for 3 months or longer in 2022, compared with 19% of those without disabilities, further widening health disparities, finds a new report published in the American Journal of Public Health.University of Kansas (KU) researchers compared rates of long COVID among 2,262 KU National Survey on Health and Disability respondents disabled before 2020—of whom 581 reported testing positive for COVID-19—with those among 2,725 nondisabled participants in the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's Household Pulse Survey (HPS).The estimated prevalence of long COVID was higher among COVID-positive participants with disabilities (40.6%) than among previously infected, non-disabled participants (18.9%) and HPS respondents who reported ever having long-COVID symptoms (31.5%). The prevalence in summer 2022 was 10.4% of participants with disabilities, compared with 7.5% of non-disabled respondents.The type of disability most associated with long COVID was chronic illness (60% of COVID-19 survivors), followed by those with mental illness (45%). Participants with sensory disabilities (eg, blindness, deafness) had the lowest rate of long COVID."We knew from previous research during the pandemic that people with pre-existing disabilities were having more difficulties getting the vaccines and were more likely to be exposed," lead author Jean Hall, PhD, said in a KU press release. "They not only have higher rates of long COVID, but they also have greater barriers to care, whether it's transportation, costs or other challenges."People with disabilities are also more likely to have severe COVID-19 symptoms, face treatment refusals, and be admitted to a hospital, the researchers said.The authors called for public health policymakers to pay closer attention to rates of long COVID among people with disabilities and create equitable policies and responses. The team also urged the public, healthcare systems, and policy makers to recognize that the pandemic is not over and continues to pose greater risks to this high-risk population."We read comments from survey participants with pre-existing disabilities who are afraid to go out in their communities because the people they need to interact with, including health providers, aren't masking, and the public in general acts like the pandemic is over," senior author Kelsey Goddard, PhD, said in the release. "Re-contracting COVID can exacerbate their long COVID symptoms."Coauthor Lisa McCorkell, MPP, noted that few healthcare providers are still taking COVID-19 precautions. "The pandemic is not over, and COVID is still spreading," she said. "Policy should be adjusted so that if we're truly aiming for an equitable response, we implement masking in public places and health care facilities to protect people with disabilities."

UK studies on Long COVID reveal its brutal impact and prevalence -- The spread of COVID-19 continues in Britain with new strains still taking the lives of up to 200 people a week in England alone. Moreover, an estimated up to 2 million people are suffering from Long COVID in the UK. The condition encompasses a variety of symptoms such as fatigue, shortness of breath, and cognitive impairments. Estimates suggest that approximately 10 percent of all individuals who contract COVID-19 experience Long COVID. Several recent UK studies have investigated this harm being done to the population’s health by the policy of “living with the virus” enacted jointly by the Conservative and Labour parties. Research carried out by academics at Newcastle University found a fifth of GP patients in some areas of northern England suffer from Long COVID. The study, “Navigating the Long Haul: Understanding Long Covid in Northern England”, also found that there were regional inequalities in terms of the incidence of Long COVID in the North East of England and Yorkshire, where rates in the most deprived areas were 5.2 percent higher than in the less deprived areas. Its summary explains, “Our ‘A Year of Covid-19 in the North’ report showed Covid-19 hit the region harder than the South of the country and this report shows this pattern is repeated in Long Covid in the region. In some areas of the North the prevalence of the illness is as high as 20%.” It adds, “The average for England as a whole was 4.4%.” The highest rate of prevalence was recorded among patients at Parklands medical practice in Bradford and Margaret Thompson medical centre in Liverpool. All ten of the GP surgeries with the highest rates of Long COVID among patients are in the North. Drawing attention to the lack of care and support available to Long COVID sufferers, the report notes, “While many employers in the North provide support for Covid-19, this is specified on an acute basis, rather than in response to Long Covid/post Covid illnesses.” The report notes that “Only three out of 10 northern employers contacted offered a specific rehabilitation package to employees living with Long Covid despite the high prevalence in the region.” Separate research published in the Journal of Infection on August 28 details the prevalence and impact of persistent symptoms following SARS-CoV-2 infection among healthcare workers. Researchers from the UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) and Public Health Scotland analysed data from the SARS-CoV-2 Immunity and Reinfection Evaluation (SIREN) study. It explains that “SIREN participants were eligible for the survey if they had a recorded SARS-CoV-2 infection by 12 September 2022 and had not withdrawn from the study before the survey date.” 16,599 health care workers were eligible to complete the survey. Of these 6,677 responded and 5,053 were included in the final analysis. The study found that “A substantial proportion of UK healthcare workers in our cohort experienced persistent symptoms following their initial SARS-CoV-2 infection, and this has impacted their life and work.” Another important conclusion was the higher prevalence of persistent symptoms found among those who were unvaccinated (38.1 percent) than among those who were vaccinated (22 percent). The study notes, “When asked about the impact of persistent symptoms on day-to-day and work-related activities, 51.8% and 42.1% replied ‘a little’ (for day to day and work-related activity respectively) and 24.0% and 14.4% replied ‘A lot’ (first infection only). “When asked about at work adjustments among those reporting persistent symptoms, 8.9% reported they had reduced their working hours and 13.9% had changed their working pattern. The medium number of sick days participants reported taking off work due to persistent symptoms for their first infection was 14 days”, with an interquartile range of seven to 50 days and an overall range of one to 680 days. That the upper range of sick days required is approaching two years shows the horrific impact of the disease on a layer of workers in the National Health Service. Despite the widespread prevalence of COVID and Long COVID among health workers, there is no general mask mandate in place in the National Health Service. The reality of the virus and its impact has, however, pushed a number of NHS hospital trusts to implement their own mandates.

Estimate: COVID vaccines saved up to 2.6 million lives in Latin America, Caribbean --COVID-19 vaccines saved about 610,000 to 2.61 million lives in 17 countries in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) in the first 1.5 years of vaccine availability, estimate researchers from Yale University, Brazil, and the Pan American Health Organization (PAHO).For the observational study, published yesterday in Open Forum Infectious Diseases, the investigators used data on COVID-19 deaths and vaccine effectiveness (VE) and uptake to arrive at a counterfactual estimate of the number of unvaccinated adults saved through vaccination from January 2021 to May 2022."Despite the initial availability of COVID-19 vaccines across the region, wide inter- and intra-country variation in access and availability to vaccines were observed in the region," the researchers wrote.More than 1.49 million people died of COVID-19 in the studied countries over the study period, the researchers found after accounting for underreporting. Reported deaths over the same period numbered 1.05 million. Had there been no vaccine, 2.10 million to 4.11 million people likely would have died, the model estimated. As a result, vaccines may have saved an estimated 610,000 (assuming low VE) to 2.62 million (assuming high VE) lives. In total, vaccines likely averted roughly 273 deaths per 100,000 people. A sensitivity analysis suggested that, if consideration was limited to COVID-19 deaths as reported with no assumed underreporting, vaccination may have averted 870,000 deaths. The rate of averted deaths averted by country differed by vaccination uptake over time, particularly in those aged 60 and older, as well as whether COVID-19 outbreaks were seen primarily before or after vaccine rollout. "For instance, the model estimates that proportionally more deaths were averted in Chile and Uruguay, as there were spikes in deaths at a time when a lot of the population (especially those 60 and over) was vaccinated," the authors wrote.The researchers noted that their study didn't account for protection from previous COVID-19 infections against reinfection and severe illness or the effect of other public health measures such as lockdowns.

3 studies uncover flu, COVID vaccine reluctance, impact of mental illness on uptake - Three new observational studies on influenza and COVID-19 vaccine uptake find that more than a third of US adults say they don't need any vaccines, 64% of French healthcare workers got the flu shot but not the COVID vaccine in 2022-2023, and psychiatric illness is tied to a significantly higher likelihood of receiving a flu vaccine but lower odds of getting a COVID vaccine.The findings come on the cusp of the Northern Hemisphere flu and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) seasons and rising US COVID-19 cases. The US Centers for Disease Prevention and Control (CDC) recommends annual flu vaccination and updated COVID-19 vaccination for everyone aged 6 months and older, the pneumococcal vaccine for people at high-risk for severe disease and those younger than 5 years and 65 years and older, and the RSV vaccine for adults aged 75 years and older, high-risk adults aged 60 to 74 years, and pregnant women at 32 to 36 weeks' gestation from September to January.A national survey today by Ohio State University investigators reveals that 56% of 1,006 US adults plan to get vaccinated against the flu this year, and 43% say they will receive a COVID-19 vaccine, but 37% say they don't need vaccines, and the same proportion say they've been vaccinated before but won't do so this year. Respondents aged 65 and older are the most likely to receive recommended vaccines.Unfortunately, there is a lot of misinformation about vaccinations, but the reality is that they are safe and highly effective in preventing serious illness and death. The weighted, probability-based survey was conducted by phone or online from August 16 to 18, 2024. The margin of error was plus or minus 3.8 percentage points at the 95% confidence level."Unfortunately, there is a lot of misinformation about vaccinations, but the reality is that they are safe and highly effective in preventing serious illness and death," Nora Colburn, MD, said in the Ohio State press release. "Older adults, people with certain chronic medical conditions, and those who are pregnant are especially at risk during respiratory virus season." For the second study, researchers in Rennes, France, used an anonymous online survey to estimate flu and COVID-19 vaccine uptake, identify the reasons behind vaccination decisions, and determine plans to get the vaccines the following year among healthcare workers (HCWs) at a network of academic hospitals in fall 2022 and winter 2022-23. Of the 1,587 respondents, 30% were paramedics, 20% were medics, 16% were administrative workers, and 15% were nurse assistants. Two percent of HCWs reported having a contraindication to either vaccine, and 8% were at risk for severe flu or COVID.The results, published this week in Vaccine, show that 64% and 42% of HCWs were vaccinated against the flu and COVID-19, respectively. A multivariable analysis found that being a medic or older than 40 years was linked to receipt of both the flu and COVID-19 vaccines. Adverse-event rates among vaccinated HCWs were 8% and 37% after flu and COVID-19 vaccination, respectively; 61% of these events were mild and transient.Of the 19% of HCWs who did not receive the flu vaccine, 85% said they refused it because of the following reasons: they considered themselves not at risk for severe illness (51%), the vaccine was not mandatory (25%), they didn't trust the vaccine (25%), or they thought the vaccine was ineffective (18%). In total, just 38% of HCWs believed the 2022-23 flu vaccine to be effective, and 36% said they would have received the vaccine had they been told it was effective."Although influenza and COVID vaccines are recommended for healthcare workers (HCWs), vaccine coverage is sub-optimal for influenza in this population, and the situation did not improve during the COVID pandemic," the study authors wrote.Yesterday in Psychiatry Online, Kaiser Permanente researchers in Georgia, Washington, and Southern California reported on the link between psychiatric conditions and the odds of receiving flu and COVID-19 vaccines among more than 1.3 million people over 1 year. They also assessed the influence of sociodemographic and clinical characteristics on vaccine uptake. Psychiatric patients were matched by age and sex with control participants without a psychiatric diagnosis.The probability of receiving a flu vaccine was 18% higher and of receiving a COVID vaccine 3% lower in the psychiatric patients than in controls."The findings provide evidence that people with mental health conditions were more likely to receive an influenza vaccine but were less likely to receive a COVID-19 vaccine, compared with individuals without such conditions," the researchers wrote. "However, the vaccination rates observed for individuals with and without diagnosed psychiatric conditions were below national benchmarks, suggesting room for improving vaccine uptake in both patient populations."

High proportion of patients endorse non-prescription antibiotic use, survey finds --More than half of respondents to a survey on non-prescription antibiotic use said they would use leftover antibiotics in the future if they were feeling sick, researchers reported today in Antimicrobial Stewardship & Hospital Epidemiology.The survey, developed by researchers at the Baylor College of Medicine and the Michael E. DeBakey Veterans Affairs Medical Center in Houston, was conducted from January 2020 through June 2021 in the waiting rooms of six public, safety-net primary care clinics and two private emergency departments in Texas. To assess patients' endorsement of non-prescription antibiotic use, interviewers asked respondents, "If you were feeling sick, would you take antibiotics in the following situations without contacting a doctor/nurse/dentist/clinic?" and then presented them with 13 predefined situations. The researchers grouped patient answers into three situational summary factors: barriers to a doctor visit, accessibility of non-prescription antibiotics, and previous symptom relief with antibiotics. They also analyzed patient demographics. Among the 546 patients surveyed (72% female, 47% Hispanic, 33% Black), the most common situations that would trigger patients to use non-prescription antibiotics were having leftover antibiotics (50.4%), experiencing symptom relief with prior use of antibiotics (47.5%), and perceived high cost of a doctor visit (29.8%). Overall, accessibility of non-prescribed antibiotics (54%) was the most commonly cited situational summary factor, followed by previous symptom relief with antibiotics (53%) and reported barriers to a doctor's visit (37%).Multivariate regression analysis revealed that younger patients and patients attending the safety-net clinics had higher intended use of non-prescription antibiotics for all three summary factors.The study authors say the findings highlight the ongoing, systemic problem of overprescribing, and the need for additional education on appropriate antibiotic use.

Exposure to air pollution may increase antibiotic use for respiratory symptoms --A new study by Spanish researchers suggests that short-term exposure to air pollution may be tied to increased antibiotic use in people experiencing respiratory symptoms.The study, published last week in JAMA Network Open, found that increases of daily ambient air pollution in 11 Spanish cities over 7 years were associated with increased antibiotic consumption among people who sought care for acute respiratory symptoms on the day of exposure. Exposure to air pollution has previously been tied to a variety of adverse health effects, among them increased risk of stroke, heart disease, and lung cancer. But the authors of the study say the identification of a link between ambient air pollution and heightened antibiotic use underscores the need to reduce exposure to toxic air."Our findings underscore the need for more comprehensive and ambitious policies to address ambient air pollution on a global scale," they wrote. For the study, a team led by researchers from Bellvitge University Hospital in Barcelona conducted a two-stage ecological time series analysis using data on daily ambient particulate matter and nitrogen dioxide (PM₁₀, PM_2.5, and NO₂) concentrations from the 11 largest cities in Catalonia from June 23, 2012, to December 31, 2019. PM₁₀ (PM of 10 micrograms [μg] or less in diameter) and PM_2.5 (2.5 μg or less in diameter) are the primary forms of inhalable PM derived from different emissions sources. Along with NO₂, they are considered key indicators of air pollution that can have adverse effects on human health.Among the nearly 2 million inhabitants of the 11 cities (median age, 48 years; 55% female), there were 8.4 million antibiotic dispensations during the study period. The median antibiotic consumption, measured as defined daily doses (DDD) per 1,000 inhabitants dispensed, was 12.26, ranging from 10.24 to 14.16 across the 11 cities. A total of 1.9 million antibiotic dispensations were associated with primary care consultations for acute respiratory symptoms.The researchers found a significant correlation between increases of 10 μg/m³ in the concentration of all three pollutants studied and heightened antibiotic consumption on day 0 (PM₁₀: relative risk [RR], 1.01; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.01 to 1.02; PM_2.5: RR, 1.03; 95% CI, 1.01 to 1.04; NO₂: RR, 1.04; 95% CI, 1.03 to 1.05). They also observed a delayed association between increases in PM_2.5 concentration and antimicrobial consumption between day 7 (RR, 1.00; 95% CI, 1.00 to 1.01) and day 10 (RR, 1.00; 95% CI, 1.00 to 1.01) after exposure. The study authors hypothesize that exposure to air pollution could increase antibiotic use in two ways. In one scenario, it induces immediate irritation of the respiratory tract, resulting in acute respiratory symptoms that prompt healthcare-seeking behavior, mis-diagnosis of respiratory tract infections, and subsequent antibiotic use. In the other, air pollution triggers an innate immune response in the respiratory system that could increase susceptibility to secondary bacterial infections that result in antibiotic use."In addition, the overlapping symptoms between pollution-induced irritation and acute respiratory tract infections may lead health care professionals to prescribe antibiotics even when the infection is likely viral or pollution induced, both immediately and later," they wrote.

Study: 'Systemic weaknesses' contribute to multidrug-resistant surgical infections in poorer nations Data from hospitals in seven low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) show high levels of multidrug resistance (MDR) in surgical-site infections (SSIs), limited microbiologic testing capacity, and frequently ineffective prophylactic (preventive) antibiotics, researchers reported late last week in The Lancet Global Health. The findings are from a secondary analysis of data from the FALCON trial, which evaluated the effectiveness of two interventions (2% alcohol chlorhexidine and triclosan-coated sutures) recommended by the World Health Organization for reducing SSIs following abdominal surgery. SSIs are one of the most common healthcare-associated infections globally, but patients in low-resource counties are disproportionately affected compared with those in higher-income nations. For the study, an international team led by researchers from the University of Birmingham collected and analyzed wound swabs from abdominal-surgery patients recruited for the trial from seven LMICs—Benin, Ghana, India, Mexico, Nigeria, Rwanda, and South Africa. Their aim was to assess the antimicrobial susceptibility of documented SSIs in trial participants and the microbiologic capacity and antimicrobial practices of the facilities where surgery was performed. Of the 5,788 patients recruited for the trial, 1,163 patients (22%) at 50 hospitals developed an SSI, but only 228 (19.6%) of 1,163 had a wound swab collected for microbiologic analysis. Of the 935 patients who did not have a wound swab collected, 195 were from hospitals that lacked the capacity to carry out microbiologic analysis and 740 were from hospitals that had the capacity but did not swab the SSI wound. In 75% of the cases in which wound swabs were collected, turnaround time for results was 48 hours or longer. Among the 235 bacterial species cultured from 200 wound swabs that grew microorganisms, Escherichia coli was the most common species identified (37.9%), followed by Klebsiella pneumoniae (14%). MDR organisms were found in 102 (69.4%) of 147 SSI patients with available data. Of the 235 microorganisms detected, only 33% were susceptible to the antibiotic used prior to surgery. The infecting pathogen was covered by the prophylactic antibiotic in 44.6% of the patients with SSIs caused by non-MDR organisms, but only 26.7% of those with SSIs caused by MDR organisms. "Despite widespread use of prophylactic antibiotics, they were frequently ineffective, which is associated with a substantial increase in MDR organisms," the study authors wrote. The researchers also found that only half of the hospitals that performed microbiologic testing had regular reviews by infection control teams, and more than a third had no reviews. In an adjusted analysis, appropriate prophylactic antibiotic coverage (adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 0.43; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.19 to 0.96) and regular availability of infection control teams [aOR, 0.32; 95% CI, 0.11 to 0.93] were associated with reduced MDR. The authors say the systemic weaknesses they found in testing capacity, prophylactic antibiotic use, and infection control are associated with subsequent non-targeted antibiotic treatment for SSIs, which further contributes to the development of MDR infections. And these conditions, they add, are likely to be seen in most hospitals where surgery is performed in LMICs. "There is a lack of targeted antibiotic use and proper testing for SSIs," study co-author Elizabeth Li, MBChB, PhD, of the University of Birmingham, said in a university press release. "Improving testing capacity, creating local guidelines, and having infection control teams could help to prevent SSIs and reduce MDR."

Study highlights hefty global burden of upper respiratory and ear infections - A new study illustrates the substantial global burden of upper respiratory and ear infections, researchers reported this week in The Lancet Infectious Diseases.Using data from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study, an international team of researchers explored the fatal and non-fatal burden of upper respiratory infections (URIs) and otitis media (a common complication of URIs typically called ear infections) across all age-groups in 2014 countries and territories from 1990 to 2021, focusing on children younger than 5 years. Although the two conditions are closely related, their combined global burden has not been studied comprehensively.URIs are caused by a variety of viral and bacterial pathogens, including rhinoviruses, influenza virus, Streptococcus pneumoniae, and Haemophilus influenzae. While they rarely cause severe disease or death, they pose a substantial economic and healthcare burden, particularly when they lead to more serious infections, and they can contribute to antimicrobial resistance (AMR) when antibiotics are inappropriately prescribed."The inappropriate prescription of antibiotics in some cases of URI facilitates an environment conducive to the emergence of AMR, especially as most URIs are self-limiting and require only symptomatic relief," the study authors wrote.In 2021, there were 12.8 billion URI episodes and 19,600 deaths due to URIs, while otitis media accounted for 391 million episodes and 536 deaths. For both conditions, the highest incidence rates in 2021 were seen in children younger than 2 years. Together, the combined burden of URIs and otitis media in 2021 was 6.86 million years lived with disability and 8.16 million disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for all ages. Infants aged 1 to 5 months had the highest combined DALY rate in 2021 (647 per 100, 000) followed by early neonates (aged 0 to 6 days; 582 per 100,000) and late neonates (aged 7 to 24 days; 482 per 100,000).Given the close association between URIs and otitis media, the authors say there is a need for comprehensive strategies that address prevention, early diagnosis, and effective management of these conditions together.

Tennessee reports first measles case in 5 years --Tennessee has reported its first measles case since 2019, which involves someone who traveled internationally and spent time in Kentucky while infectious. The infected person has recovered. The Tennessee Department of Health said it has not identified additional positive measles cases in Tennessee.According to an update today from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), the United States has recorded 251 cases of measles this year and 13 outbreaks of the virus. Seventy percent of cases (175 of 251) are outbreak-associated.Cases have been recorded in 31 jurisdictions, and 40% of cases are in children 5 and under. Eighty-eight percent of cases have been unvaccinated or have unknown vaccination status; 8% report having only one dose of the measles, mumps, and rubella vaccine; and 4% were fully vaccinated.The CDC said 42% of cases have required hospitalization (106 of 251) for isolation or for management of measles complications.

Mpox cases on the rise in Canada - Despite the World Health Organization (WHO) having declared mpox an international public health emergency, cases continue to mount in Canada. The latest surge in cases stems directly from the neglect of the threat posed by the mpox virus, irrespective of the clade of the virus, by governments at the federal and provincial level. As of mid-August, 164 cases have been recorded in the country this year, far outstripping the totals registered by the Public Health Agency of Canada (PHAC) in 2023. The government has been quick to note that the current spike is much lower than the figures observed during the initial spread of mpox globally in 2022 when more than one thousand were infected in Canada before the outbreak was unceremoniously declared over. Presently the clade 1 strain of mpox is ravaging parts of central Africa, particularly the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), prompting the declaration of the second public health emergency of international concern (PHEIC) for mpox by the WHO in August. The current declaration comes on the heels of a new strain of mpox, clade 1b, that emerged late last year in South-Kivu, one of 26 provinces located in the eastern part of the DRC. Initial investigation of the outbreak revealed it transmitted more easily between people and concerns were raised that the infection among the population was growing with its potential spread throughout the region and beyond the country’s borders. With a case fatality ratio of 3.6 percent, it made it far deadlier than infections with the clade 2b strain that has spread to more than a hundred countries across the globe. More recently, the presence of the clade 1b strain in the densely populated capital of Kinshasa, located 2,000 kilometers to the west of the epicenter of the outbreak, is raising new concerns. There are more than 17 million people living in the capital that has access to the rest of the world via its international airport, raising the immediate concerns that the clade 1 strains of the mpox virus may spread uncontrolled throughout the rest of the world. The presence of the clade 1b strain in Sweden and Thailand may be the proverbial canary in the coal mine signaling the all too real threat of this strain spreading braodly. The complete abandonment of any semblance of a response to the clade 2b mpox outbreak in 2022 raises ample concerns over how public health authorities will respond once the clade 1 strain takes hold. The lack of any sound epidemiologic response by Canada’s health officials to the current strain of mpox is emblematic of the international anti-public-health response globally. At every turn, public health statements and announcements downplay the dangers posed by the virus and attempt to offer false assurances that these pathogens are no serious threat, and all the necessary tools are in place should they be needed. Statements like the one made by Chief Public Health Officer Theresa Tam, who admitted that the lack of any positive samples of clade 1 in wastewater “could change,” should raise eyebrows.

New polio case in Pakistan as Gaza vaccine campaign completes first week [Pakistan has a new polio case this week, according to the weekly report from the Global Polio Eradication Initiative (GPEI), while healthcare workers in Gaza have completed the first week of a massive vaccination campaign in the war-torn region.In Pakistan, one wild poliovirus type 1 (WPV1) case was recorded in Islamabad, and 15 WPV1-positive environmental samples were reported in Balochistan, Sindh, Punjab, Islamabad, and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.The GPEI also noted a new case of vaccine-derived poliovirus type 2 in the Democratic Republic of the Congo in Maindombe, the tenth such case reported this year.In Gaza, vaccines have been administered for 10 days following the first section of the virus in 25 years in the region earlier this summer.In a new study in Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report, authors published an overview of recent polio activity in Pakistan. From January 2023 to June 2024, officials recorded 14 WPV1 cases, compared with 21 WPV1 cases during January 2022 to June 2023.Though cases are fewer, detections in the past 18 months suggest widespread transmission, because they have appeared in historical polio reservoirs in Balochistan and Sindh provinces."Despite the occurrence of only a single confirmed WPV1 case during the first half of 2023, Pakistan experienced widespread circulation of WPV1 over the subsequent 12 months, specifically in the historical reservoirs of the cities of Karachi, Peshawar, and Quetta," the authors wrote.They added, "These cases, along with more than 300 WPV1-positive environmental surveillance (sewage) samples reported during 2023–2024, indicate that Pakistan is not on track to interrupt WPV1 transmission."

Hundreds of cantaloupe melons recalled over salmonella concerns: FDA --A produce distributor is warning consumers about certain cantaloupe melons that may have been contaminated with salmonella last month.Arizona-based Eagle Produce LLC is recalling 224 cases of whole cantaloupes sold under a brand called Kandy. The recall was announced in a press release published by the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) on Friday.According to the FDA, the affected melons were labeled with a UPC number code of 4050 and a lot code of 846468.The cantaloupes were sold in Michigan, Missouri, Ohio, Texas and Virginia between August 13 and August 17."The cantaloupes are identified with a red and white sticker with KANDY across the top and UPC number code, 4050," the FDA advises. "No other products or lot code dates are affected by this recall."No illnesses related to the cantaloupes have been reported as of Friday, but the FDA warns that salmonella can be deadly to consumers in certain age groups.Some Kandy brand cantaloupe melons may contain salmonella, the FDA warns. (FDA / Handout / Fox News)"Salmonella is an organism which can cause serious and sometimes fatal infections in young children, frail or elderly people, and others with weakened immune systems," the FDA's website reads. "Healthy people may experience fever, nausea, vomiting, diarrhea (which may be bloody), and abdominal pain.""In rare cases the organism can get into the bloodstream and produce more severe illness such as arterial infections (i.e. infected aneurysms), endocarditis and arthritis."Consumers who purchased the recalled melons are encouraged to dispose of the products immediately.

Five-State Fruit Recall Over Fears of 'Fatal Infections' – Newsweek --Hundreds of melons have been recalled across the United States by a company over fears of potential salmonella contamination.The U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) is urging consumers not to consume the listed products, which were distributed in Michigan, Missouri, Ohio, Texas, and Virginia between August 13 and 17.According to the FDA, Eagle Produce LLC, based in Scottsdale, Arizona, has recalled 224 cases of whole cantaloupe under the brand name Kandy with the UPC number code 4050, after products in the same batch were found to contain salmonella following routine sample testing by the State of Michigan.Newsweek has contacted Eagle Produce LLC via telephone for comment. Salmonella is from a group of food-borne bacteria that can cause differing severities of illness. Infection comes from a variety of sources, including eating contaminated food or drinking water, and touching infected animals.The following foods may carry a higher risk of salmonella contamination:

• Raw or undercooked meat and poultry.
• Raw or undercooked eggs.
• Raw or unpasteurized milk and other dairy products.
• Raw fruits and vegetables.

In general, salmonella infection results in diarrhea, fever, and abdominal cramps that last for roughly four to seven days. While most people recover without treatment, some—especially young children, those with weakened immune systems, and the over-65s—may experience more severe illness that requires medical treatment or hospitalization.In severe cases, the infection may spread beyond the intestines, which can be life-threatening."Salmonella is an organism which can cause serious and sometimes fatal infections in young children, frail or elderly people, and others with weakened immune systems," the FDA said in a statement. Infection with this bacteria is not uncommon—according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, there are roughly 1.35 million infections, 26,500 hospitalizations, and 420 deaths as a result of salmonella in the United States every year. The CDC adds that, for every one person with a confirmed salmonella infection, there are probably at least 30 more cases that are not reported, meaning the number of salmonella cases in the U.S. is likely much higher.

Eggs recalled after dozens sickened in salmonella outbreak - The Washington Post -- A Wisconsin farm recalled all its eggs and suspended production after a salmonella outbreak that sickened at least 65 people in nine states was traced to its facilities.The recall applies to all chicken eggs produced by Milo’s Poultry Farms of Bonduel, Wis., though the exact number was unknown. Consumers are being advised to throw out any eggs branded Milo’s Poultry Farms or Tony’s Fresh Market.Though most of the infections were reported in Wisconsin and Illinois, there were also cases in Michigan, Minnesota, Iowa, Virginia, Colorado, Utah and California.The Food and Drug Administration said at least 65 people were infected from May 23 to Aug. 10, with patients ranging in age from 2 to 88 years old. Among them, 24 required hospitalization and many had dined at the same restaurants, according to the national Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. No deaths have been reported.Salmonella is a bacterial infection that can cause fever, diarrhea and abdominal cramps, or arterial infections in severe cases, according to the FDA. It is particularly dangerous for children younger than 5, the elderly or those with weakened immune systems. Symptoms usually show up 12 to 72 hours after eating contaminated food.

CDC warns of Salmonella outbreak linked to eggs -- At least 65 people in 9 states have been sickened with the same strain ofSalmonella enteritidis linked to tainted eggs, according to an update todayfrom the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). Most sick people are from Wisconsin (42) or Illinois (11). Other states included in the outbreak are Michigan, California, Colorado, Iowa, Minnesota, Utah, and Virginia.Of the 65 people sickened, 24 have required hospitalization, but none have died yet. Patients range in age from 2 to 88 years, with a median age of 55. "Data show that eggs supplied by Milo's Poultry Farms LLC are contaminated with Salmonella and are making people sick," the CDC said. Late last week, Milo's Poultry Farms LLC recalled eggs sold to stores and restaurants in Illinois, Michigan, and Wisconsin and labeled with "Milo's Poultry Farms" or "Tony's Fresh Market." All egg types, sizes, and expiration dates are recalled."Several sick people reported eating at the same restaurants before getting sick," the CDC said. "The Wisconsin Department of Health Services identified four illness clusters at restaurants where eggs were served.”The Salmonella strain implicated in the outbreak is resistant to nalidixic acid and ciprofloxacin, which the CDC said may make the illness difficult to treat with some commonly recommended antibiotics.

California officials confirm local dengue case -The Los Angeles County Department of Public Health this week confirmed a local dengue case, the third reported in the state since 2023.In a statement, the department said the patient is a resident of Baldwin Park and had no history of travel to areas where the mosquito-borne virus is endemic. An alert to providers said the patient and household members had not traveled domestically or internationally and that the patient reported mosquito bites at home and is recovering from his or her dengue illness. Last year, local dengue cases were confirmed by city officials in two other Los Angeles County cities: Pasadena in October and Long Beach in November. Mantu David, MD, MPH, Los Angeles County health officer, said, "This case further indicates that dengue fever is present in our community. While the likelihood of widespread transmission is low at this time, we must remain vigilant and prevent further cases through public education and mosquito control efforts."The health department added that the San Gabriel Valley Mosquito and Vector Control District has enhanced surveillance and conducted mosquito control activities in the area, including more backpack and truck-mounted mosquito treatments. In June, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) warned about an increased risk of dengue cases in the United States, based on a record surge in the Americas region and higher-than-expected numbers of imported cases this year.Each year, sporadic cases are reported in a few states, including Florida. The Florida Department of Health, in its latest vector-borne illness surveillance update, reported 2 more cases, raising the year’s total to 31 in six counties. In other vector-borne illness developments, the CDC this week reported 20 more imported cases of Oropouche virus, which is most often spread by biting midges. It also reported the first neuroinvasive case. Two more states, California and Colorado, reported cases, raising the total to five. Most of the 52 cases have been reported by Florida.On X yesterday, the CDC told health departments that it can now diagnose Oropouche virus using real-time polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) testing Americas countries, including Cuba, have reported a surge in cases this year, with the virus spreading beyond endemic areas and causing rising instances of severe fetal outcomes, including deaths and congenital malformations.

Fourth case of Eastern equine encephalitis confirmed in Massachusetts - A fourth case of the dangerous mosquito-borne illness was confirmed in Massachusetts on Monday, according to health officials. A man in his 50s contracted Eastern equine encephalitis (EEE), the Massachusetts Department of Public Health (DPH) announced on Monday. The man lives in Middlesex County which is at high risk for EEE. Nationally, cases of EEE were detected in at least five states in 2024: Vermont, Wisconsin, Massachusetts, Hampshire and New Jersey. EEE is transmitted to people through the bite of an infected mosquito. “This year’s EEE season has been particularly active and is generating a lot of concern in communities across Massachusetts,” Public Health Commissioner Robbie Goldstein, MD, PhD., said in a statement. “While EEE remains a rare disease, the risk level is elevated in multiple communities.” “With the weather forecast showing warm, sunny weather for the rest of the week, we recommend that people take necessary precautions in areas of elevated risk,” Goldstein continued. “This includes recommending that residents and towns in areas at high risk for EEE reschedule their evening outdoor events to avoid peak mosquito biting hours from dusk to dawn.”Massachusetts’ DPH said there have been 91 EEE-positive samples in this state this year. Health officials said the last outbreak in The Bay State occurred in 2019-2020. There were 17 human cases and seven people died. Apart from the four cases in humans in the state this year, EEE was found in two Massachusetts horses. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) stated the U.S. normally has between three and 15 cases per year with the average being around seven cases. Last year, seven cases were detected.

Oropouche cases in the Americas near 10,000 -- Since its last update at the start of August, the Pan American Health Organization (PAHO) in a new reportsaid six countries in the Americas region have reported 1,774 more Oropouche virus cases, mostly from Brazil, Peru, and Cuba. In a new development, the Dominican Republic reported 33 cases from retrospective testing, making it the second-most affected country in the Caribbean subregion. In August, Canada and the United States each reported imported infections.Spread mainly by certain biting midges, the surge in Oropouche virus activity has raised concerns due to outbreaks well beyond the usual affected areas and reports of severe fetal outcomes, including deaths and congenital malformations.So far, Brazil has reported 11 fetal deaths, 3 spontaneous miscarriages, and 4 cases involving congenital anomalies, PAHO said.The Americas region has reported nearly 10,000 cases since the start of the year, of which about 8,000 were from Brazil. The country reported the highest portion of its cases in the first months of 2024, and illnesses have been gradually declining. Cuba’s surge began in May, when the country detected its first cases, and over the past 5 weeks, the country has been averaging more than 30 cases a week. Also in the Caribbean, Dominican Republic testing on retrospective dengue-negative samples have identified 33 cases from 12 provinces in August, mostly from Hermana Mirabal.For imported cases, PAHO received 1 report from Canada and 21 from the United States.In the United States, though Oropouche virus isn’t a nationally notifiable condition, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has asked states to voluntarily report illnesses. As of September 3, it has received 32 notifications from 3 states, mostly Florida.

Study identifies areas of Europe at risk from dengue fever due to spread of Asian tiger mosquito --As Europe grapples with the growing threat of tropical diseases brought by the Asian tiger mosquito, a research breakthrough led by the UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology (UKCEH) is enabling scientists to accurately predict towns across the continent where there is a high risk of dengue fever.The research is published in the journalNature Communications.Global movement of people, trade andclimate change, are now putting half the world's population at risk of contracting dengue fever. Commonly referred to as the "bone breaker," the disease may cause severe muscle and joint pain, and in some cases can result in internal bleeding and death.The spread of the Asian tiger mosquito (Aedes albopictus) has caused local outbreaks of dengue in France, including Paris, as well as Italy and Spain, spreading the virus by biting returning travelers who were infected while abroad and then transmitting it to other people in the area.Scientists expect this invasive mosquito species to eventually gain a foothold in the UK.Previous disease risk predictions indicated large regions, such as the whole of southern Europe, had a similar risk of local dengue cases over long timeframes, leaving local authorities uncertain whether their area was likely to be affected and action to prevent outbreaks was necessary.But the UKCEH-led advanced high-resolution modeling divides Europe as well as eastern Asia and North America into 10km squares, providing daily risk assessments for each area. The new research involves a more detailed study of the entire life cycle of a mosquito, examining the impact of local climate and competition for food on species traits such as how long it lives and the number of eggs it lays. This provides more accurate assessments of where, when and for how long there are likely to be local dengue cases.The new modeling has already correctly predicted the locations of several towns that have gone on to have their first dengue outbreaks this year, including La Colle-sur-Loup, Baho and Montpellier-Pérols in southern France, and Vila-seca, in northeast Spain.Dr. Dominic Brass, an epidemiological modeler at UKCEH, who led the study, says, "We predict that the parts of Europe most affected by dengue fever will continue to be southern France and northern Italy, due to a favorable climate, a stable mosquito population and the high number of travelers returning from tropical countries where the disease is prevalent."However, areas of risk are expanding northwards. Our ongoing research is modeling the likely extent of future outbreaks in Europe under future climate change."

How viruses move through insects for transmission of diseases -Viruses are master parasites that have adapted to infect many host species. Some viruses even use multiple hosts to spread their infections—such as arboviruses that use insects to move their infections to mammalian hosts like humans. Understanding how they move through insects could lead to new ways to block their transmission.In a study recently published in theJournal of Virology, researchers have uncovered the clever tactics viruses use to spread through their insect hosts and potentially infect other animals. This knowledge is particularly crucial for combating viruses that spread from insects to humans or livestock, like zika, dengue, and West Nile virus. The researchers used fruit flies as a model to track the movement of proteins from two different viruses: one that only infects insects and one that can infect insects and other animals, including humans."Even when expressed on their own, without the rest of the virus, these proteins moved to precisely the correct locations in the insect cells," explained Gary Blissard, a professor at the Boyce Thompson Institute and one of the lead authors of the study."In the insect gut, both proteins traveled to the bottom of the cells, positioning themselves to exit into the insect's body cavity. In the salivary glands, the insect-only virus protein still went to the cell bottom, but the other protein often moved to the top of the cells—perfectly placed to assemble new virus particles for exit into the saliva, and for infecting a new animal host."This positioning is crucial for the viruses' survival and spread. It's as if the proteins have built-in GPS, directing them (and by extension, the viruses of which they're a part) to precisely the right locations to continue their life cycle. The study found that this GPS system actually consisted of amino acid sequence signals encoded in the viral proteins.These signals were recognized by the host's own protein transport systems, and directed the proteins to the virus' chosen location. The team also identified components of the cellular machinery that these viral proteins hijack to reach their destinations.This knowledge could lead to new ways of disrupting the viral proteins' "GPS" or the cellular machinery they exploit. Thus, these viruses could be prevented from reaching or leaving the salivary glands, effectively turning off the virus' ability to use the insect as a vector."Our research highlights the incredible adaptations viruses have evolved to navigate through complex biological systems such as insects," said Nicolas Buchon, associate professor at Cornell's Department of Entomology and co-lead author of the study. "It's a reminder of the continuous evolutionary arms race between viruses and their hosts and the importance of basic research in understanding these intricate biological processes."

Missouri health officials report first bird flu case in adult without previous known animal contactOn Friday, after the Missouri Department of Health and Senior Services (DHSS) issued their preliminary report to the media, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) announced that a Missouri man who was hospitalized on August 22 with underlying medical conditions had tested positive for the H5 subtype of the avian influenza (bird flu). The health agency said that the person, whose identity was being withheld to ensure their privacy, had not worked with or ever been in contact with stockyard animals known to harbor the H5N1 bird flu virus. This brings the number of people infected with the bird flu this year in the US to 14. Four of these cases occurred among workers handling dairy cows (one in Texas, two in Michigan, and one in Colorado). Then, over the month of July, 10 poultry workers in Colorado were confirmed with infection after exposure to infected birds. The latest case, one without known exposure to an animal source, has raised the ongoing threat posed by the bird flu considerably. The most pressing questions for which the CDC has no answers currently are: how did this person acquire the virus?, and what does this mean for the public health risk? In their brief September 6 press statement, they wrote:[The] CDC has confirmed a human case of avian influenza A(H5) (‘H5 bird flu’) reported by the state of Missouri. The case was identified through that state’s seasonal flu surveillance system. The specimen was forwarded to CDC for confirmatory testing per usual protocols and confirmed yesterday. An investigation into the potential exposure is ongoing by the Missouri Department of Health and Senior Services (DHSS).Furthermore, the CDC added:Missouri DHSS reports that the patient, who was hospitalized, had underlying medical conditions, was treated with influenza antiviral medications, subsequently discharged, and has recovered. There is no immediate known animal exposure. No ongoing transmission among close contacts or otherwise has been identified.This was the first time that the country’s national flu surveillance system detected a case of the H5 subtype of bird flu. There were no indications made in the press statement from the Missouri DHSS as to why the person was admitted to the hospital or what his symptoms were beyond noting he had “underlying medical conditions and tested positive for influenza A.”This prompted additional confirmatory testing that identified the H5-strain of the flu virus, which is usually found in wild birds and poultry, and most recently in dairy cattle. The CDC was then duly notified. According to media reports, the infected person made a complete recovery after treatment with antivirals was initiated and was discharged to home. The public health agencies involved with the case have not provided any further details on the genetic sequence of the influenza virus that infected the Missouri patient, and it remains to be ascertained if the strain of the virus they were infected with was the same one from either dairy cattle or the poultry farms. Neither did they disclose any details on the extent of contact tracing and testing that they conducted. The only concrete information provided was that the CDC had not noted any spike in flu viruses in their wastewater data from the region where the infected man resides, nor had they picked up any traces of the H5-subtype of the bird flu virus. Speculation in the media as to how this individual became infected includes the possibility of drinking contaminated milk, or exposure to animals such as dead birds, cats, or even house mice which have been known to harbor the bird flu. Missouri is not one of the states affected by infected dairy cow herds, although several counties in the state have confirmed H5N1 bird flu at poultry farms.

Officials await testing clues from Missouri H5 avian flu case as Michigan reports more affected cows --Late last week, health officials with the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and the Missouri Department of Health and Senior Services (DHSS) announced the first human H5 avian flu case in a patient with no known connection to infected animals. The alarming development hints at possible human transmission or from an unknown source, as health officials await further tests to determine the neuraminidase—the "N" of H5N1 and other flu strains—and clues from attempts to sequence the virus.In a September 6 statement, the CDC said it has confirmed a finding from Missouri that surfaced during routine surveillance. Shortly before, the DHSS said the sample that tested positive for H5 at the state lab was from a patient who was hospitalized on August 22. The patient is an adult with underlying conditions who has since recovered. The case is the fourteenth human H5 case of the year and the first in a patient who didn't have known occupational exposure to sick animals. Missouri hasn't reported any cattle outbreaks. According to University of Missouri Extension, the state is the nation's 26th-largest milk producer, with dairy production concentrated in the southwest and south central parts of the state. Missouri has reported sporadic avian flu outbreaks in poultry, but not since February. The virus has also been found several times in wild birds in the state, but none of the latest notifications had recent sample collection dates. The CDC said its surveillance hasn’t found any unusual sign of flu activity in the United States, including in Missouri. Health officials are eager to see if sequencing sheds light on whether the virus is linked to the B3.13 genotype circulating in cows, if there are links to other human cases, or if there are ties to other animals, which could include birds or even cats, mice, or other wildlife. Experts are also looking at the possibility of exposure to raw milk. Raw milk sales are legal in Missouri, but only directly from farms to consumers. The CDC said the main priority is to see if any ongoing transmission is occurring, but for now, the risk to the public remains low. In other avian flu developments, the Michigan Department of Agriculture and Rural Development (MDARD) today announced an H5N1 outbreak at a dairy farm in Shiawassee County, which is about 35 miles northwest of Lansing.The outbreak brings Michigan's total to 29 affected dairy herds in 12 counties. In a statement, MDARD said the samples, which were positive at the Michigan State University Veterinary Diagnostic Laboratory, will be sent to the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) National Veterinary Services Laboratory for confirmation testing. The USDA has confirmed 197 outbreaks in 14 states.

No clear exposure source in Missouri H5 avian flu case -- The investigation into a recent human H5 avian flu case in Missouri, the first of its kind picked up through flu surveillance, show that the source still isn't known, but early genetic analysis suggests that the virus is closely related to the one infecting dairy cattle, federal health officials said today.At the US Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) briefing, Nirav Shah, MD, JD, principal deputy director for the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) said state health officials are continuing the investigation, diving deeper into potential exposures.On the animal side, California reported two more H5N1 outbreaks in dairy cows, as the state continues to investigate how the virus made its way to the farms.Shah said it wouldn't be unusual to not find a likely exposure source. For example, he said that, of about 500 human swine flu cases identified since 2010, about 8% had no clear exposure to the virus.The probe hasn't turned up any evidence of human-to-human spread or any unusual rises in flu activity in Missouri, he added. “Evidence points to a one-off case,” Shah said.The concentration of virus RNA in the patient's sample was extremely low, and so far, CDC scientists haven't been able to piece together the full genome, which might yield clues about the source and flag any potential markers for increased risk of spread. So far, testing hasn't been able to pinpoint the neuraminidase, which is the "N" portion of H5N1.Though sequencing is still under way, results so far suggest that the virus is closely related to the one circulating in dairy cows, Shah said. "We're throwing everything we've got at this."The patient had significant underlying medical conditions and was evaluated in the hospital for acute chest pain and gastrointestinal symptoms, he said. A respiratory panel was done during hospitalization, and as part of influenza surveillance the results were batched with other patient samples and sent to Missouri's state lab for subtyping. Shah commended Missouri and other states for stepping up their surveillance subtype testing over the summer months, which the CDC had recommended.Missouri investigators have found no link to consumption of raw milk or other raw dairy products, Shah said.In California's outbreaks, the virus is the same B3.13 genotype seen in other dairy cow outbreaks, but sequencing on more samples is under way, said Eric Deeble, DVM, acting senior adviser for highly pathogenic avian flu at the US Department of Agriculture (USDA).California has identified all of its outbreaks through enhanced surveillance in an area surrounding the first detections in the state's Central Valley. Today, USDA's Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service(APHIS) added two more outbreaks from California to its confirmed list, putting the state’s total at eight.Initial analysis of the virus from the first three affected herds shows no evidence the California cows contracted the virus in a novel way, such as from wildlife or migrating birds.Deeble said the California Department of Food and Agriculture is working hard to track how the affected herds were exposed to H5N1. Since March, the USDA has confirmed H5N1 in 203 herds across 14 states.

H5N1 confirmed in 3 more California dairy herds -The California Department of Food and Agriculture (CDFA) today announced that a state lab has detected highly pathogenic avian influenza in cows on three more dairy farms in the Central Valley, which raises the state’s total to six. It said the findings have been confirmed by the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) National Veterinary Services Laboratory.In a statement, the CDFA said the three additional dairies are part of a group targeted for testing due to elevated risks from recent connections to the initially affected facilities. It added that the results are not surprising and support its surveillance strategy. The USDA Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service has added California's three new outbreaks to its list of confirmed H5N1 events, which puts the national total at 201 outbreaks across 14 states.

H5N1 avian flu virus detected in wastewater from 10 Texas cities 0A report yesterday in the New England Journal of Medicine details detection of highly pathogenic H5N1 avian flu virus in wastewater from 10 Texas cities during the same time period the virus was detected in Texas cattle herds.The study was conducted by researchers primarily from the University of Texas Health Science Center at Houston (UTHealth Houston) and Baylor College of Medicine. Before March 2024, H5N1 had not been detected in 1,337 wastewater samples analyzed by the team, a press releasefrom UTHealth Houston said.From March 4 to July 15 of this year, H5N1 was detected as part of the virome (collection of viruses present in wastewater sample) in 10 of 10 cities, 22 of 23 sites (96%), and 100 of 399 samples (25%)."The abundance of H5N1 sequences identified has not correlated with influenza-related hospitalizations, which declined in Texas during the spring of 2024," the authors wrote.Texas was the first state this year to confirm an H5N1 case, which involved an agricultural worker on March 28. The case-patient, who presented with conjunctivitis, among other mild symptoms, was exposed to symptomatic cattle. Since that detection, 13 other human US cases have been recorded, and all patients have made recoveries."The widespread detection of influenza A(H5N1) virus in wastewater from 10 U.S. cities is troubling," the authors concluded. "Although the exact origin of the signal is currently unknown, the lack of clinical burden along with genomic information suggests multiple animal sources."Despite the findings, the risk to human health without direct contact with infected cattle like remains low, the authors said.

National Academies: Wastewater surveillance could be even better for detecting pathogens A National Academies of Sciences, Engineering and Medicine report recommends five actions to transition the National Wastewater Surveillance System (NWSS)—developed as a response to the COVID-19 pandemic—to a forward-looking version for both endemic and emerging pathogens.The paper, released yesterday, is the second and final report by the Academies' Committee on Community Wastewater-Based Infectious Disease Surveillance done at the behest of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC).The CDC launched the NWSS with the US Department of Health and Human Services to centralize the detection and quantification of pathogen biomarkers that people shed into the sewer system."Whereas clinical laboratory testing tracks individual cases of infection, sampling and analysis at the wastewater treatment plant level (termed community-level wastewater surveillance) provide aggregate data from the homes, businesses, and other institutions that share a common sewer system," the committee wrote.The Academies recommended five steps to more robust NWSS that could better support public health, including better readiness for future pandemics:

1. Optimize state and local sampling sites while improving the representativeness of wastewater data through the use of statistical tools and methods. Such work can boost equity in unrepresented areas and increase the value of investments in the system.
2. Substantially improve the quality and comparability of wastewater data across localities by determining optimal sampling, lab analytic methods, or performance criteria and requiring them as a condition of participation in the NWSS.
3. Increase data analysis, visualization, and interpretation by working with external partners to build models that integrate wastewater and other forms of surveillance data and strengthen its role in forecasting and estimating disease prevalence.
4. Strategically add more endemic pathogens, namely respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) and influenza, to SARS-CoV-2 routine surveillance.
5. Increase capacity for early the detection of emerging pathogens, including those with pandemic potential, to facilitate early intervention.

Anthrax outbreak in Wyoming claims the lives of 50 – 60 heads of cattle and a moose, U.S. - A localized anthrax outbreak near Elk Mountain, Wyoming, has claimed the lives of 50 – 60 heads of cattle and a moose, according to state veterinary officials. The Wyoming Livestock Board and the Game and Fish Department are coordinating efforts to contain the bacterial disease.

• This is the first case of anthrax in Wyoming cattle since the 1970s and the first documented case in a moose since 1956.
• The last known instance of anthrax in wildlife occurred in Sublette County, over 320 km (200 miles) from the current outbreak location.
• The Wyoming Livestock Board also warned that anthrax is a zoonotic disease, meaning it can be transmitted between animals and humans. Hunters, livestock producers, and veterinarians are advised to exercise caution if they believe they have been in contact with infected animals.

An anthrax outbreak in southeastern Wyoming has resulted in the deaths of dozens of cattle and a moose, according to local officials. The Wyoming State Veterinary Laboratory confirmed the bacterial disease in several beef herds near Elk Mountain in Carbon County on August 31, the Wyoming Livestock Board said in a release on September 3. “We have approximately 50 – 60 heads of cattle that have died at this time due to anthrax,” said Wyoming State Veterinarian Dr. Hallie Hasel. The outbreak, currently confined to a localized area, is under investigation, and officials are monitoring for further losses. The Wyoming Game and Fish Department confirmed that a dead moose in the same area also tested positive for anthrax on September 3. This is the first case of anthrax in Wyoming cattle since the 1970s and the first documented case in a moose since 1956. The last known instance of anthrax in wildlife occurred in Sublette County, over 320 km (200 miles) from the current outbreak location. Anthrax, caused by the bacteria Bacillus anthracis, can persist in the soil for decades. According to the Wyoming Livestock Board, the spores can be disturbed by events such as heavy rain or flooding, leading to sporadic outbreaks. The bacteria typically affect livestock and wildlife during the summer, when alternating weather conditions can release spores from contaminated soil, which are then ingested by animals. The Wyoming Game and Fish Department stated that the disease is transmitted when animals inhale or ingest spores from the soil, plants, or water. Both domestic and wild animals can become infected, and the disease is most commonly observed in herbivores such as cattle, deer, and bison. Moose, elk, and pronghorn are also susceptible. Carnivores, however, are typically less vulnerable and may display greater resilience to the disease. Signs of anthrax infection in livestock include sudden death, weakness, difficulty breathing, and bloody diarrhea. The Wyoming Livestock Board also warned that anthrax is a zoonotic disease, meaning it can be transmitted between animals and humans. Hunters, livestock producers, and veterinarians are advised to exercise caution if they believe they have been in contact with infected animals.

Study proves transfer of feline coronavirus between domestic and wild cats --A new study from College of Veterinary Medicine researchers finds the first genetic evidence of feline coronavirus (FCoV) transmission between a captive wild and a domestic cat. The discovery—enabled by a novel approach using hybridization-capture next-generation genetic sequencing—has implications for combating this little-understood virus and its consequences, as well as other diseases. "We don't fully know what FCoV is capable of and how it transmits," said Gary Whittaker, the James Law Professor of Virology in the departments of Microbiology and Immunology and of Public and Ecosystem Health, and corresponding author of the paper, which was published in Microbiology Spectrum. Previous research has identified two distinct genotypes of FCoV, called types 1 and 2. They differ in their viral spike (S) protein, which determines what kinds of cells the virus can infect. Current evidence suggests that certain mutations in either version of FCoV can allow some subtypes to attack different types of cells and convert the virus from low pathogenicity to a highly pathogenic form. While FCoV usually causes only mild signs and can be present for years without causing any problems in most domestic cats, some strains undergo mutation and go on to cause feline infectious peritonitis (FIP).There is currently no effective vaccine for the prevention of FIP in cats. Because wild felids (cats) are close genetic relatives of domestic cats, they may be particularly susceptible to being infected with diseases such as FCoV—and consequently succumbing to FIP. Cat food intended for stray cats, for example, can attract wild felids, increasing the risk of transmission.Although FCoV has been reported in many wild felid species, the specific genotype (FCoV-1 or FCoV-2) remained unknown due to the technical challenges of sequencing the highly variable S gene. "By using a semi-targeted approach—known as hybridization capture—together with next-generation sequencing, we were able to detect and sequence the whole genome of FCoV-1 in both the domestic cat and the Pallas' cat tissues," Olarte Castillo said. "The main differences between FCoV-1 and FCoV-2 are in highly variable regions. So we need to move from targeting specific genes to whole-genome sequencing, and this technique seems very promising."While the current study was retrospective, "now that we have the technology, we realized this sample could serve as a proof of principle for an effective outbreak response," Whittaker said.To this end, the Cornell Feline Health Center (FHC) recently provided rapid response funding for a newest-generation NextSeq 1000 sequencer, housed in the Baker Institute's labs."The FHC made a big investment so that—in the case of a future outbreak—we can be ready and very quick to determine what strain we're dealing with," Goodman said. "We hope we can give clinicians the information they need as soon as possible to respond and contain the emerging situation.""This study is highly impactful in that it not only provides the first evidence of transmission of FCoV-1 between a domestic cat and a wild felid, but also because it does so utilizing cutting-edge technology that can be applied to improve surveillance efforts for FCoV and other pathogens in both domestic and wild feline species worldwide,"

Girls may be starting puberty earlier due to chemical exposure: Study - Girls exposed to certain chemicals that are common ingredients in household products may be starting puberty comparatively early, a new study has found. Substances of particular concern include musk ambrette — a fragrance used in some detergents, perfumes and personal care products — and a group of medications called cholinergic agonists, according to the study, published on Tuesday in Endocrinology. These chemicals are all known as “hormone-disrupting” or “endocrine-disrupting” compounds, due to their tendency to block or interfere with hormone function in the body’s endocrine system. To draw their conclusions, National Institutes of Health (NIH) researchers performed an initial screening of 10,000 environmental compounds and then studied the activities of select substances using lines of both rodent and human brain cells that control reproductive functions. “Our team identified several substances that may contribute to early puberty in girls,” co-lead author Natalie Shaw, of the NIH’s National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences, said in a statement. These compounds, Shaw and her colleagues found, were able to trigger certain receptors — proteins that bind to cell membranes and respond to stimuli — that play a key role in the puberty process. The proteins of interest, called gonadotropin-releasing hormone receptor and the kisspeptin receptor, are located in the hypothalamus, the section of the brain that regulates hormones and related bodily functions. The ability of compounds like musk ambrette to stimulate those receptors, Shaw explained, increases “the possibility that exposure may prematurely activate the reproductive access in children.” Musk ambrette raised particular concern among the researchers due to its presence in personal care products. In addition, some rat studies have shown that it can cross the blood-brain barrier. Children are less likely to come into contact with the cholinergic agonist medications in their daily lives, the scientists noted. While Canadian and European regulators have already restricted musk ambrette use and the U.S. Food and Drug Administration removed the compound from its “generally recognized as safe” list, the compound remains widely available.

Pesticides in combination can have unexpected effects on the development of honeybees --Honeybees are social insects. Their colony only survives as a community, and healthy new generations are very important. It is therefore not surprising that honeybees invest significant care and resources into their offspring: nurse bees feed the young larvae with a food juice made from nectar and pollen which they produce in a gland in their head. However, pollen, in particular, can contain residues of various insecticides and other pesticides. It is therefore very likely that bee larvae are exposed to a complex mixture of chemicals. What impact do insecticides authorized in the EU have on the development of honeybees, on their own and in combination with fungicides, especially in concentrations found in the environment? Researchers from the Biocenter of Julius-Maximilians-Universität (JMU) Würzburg in Bavaria, Germany, have investigated this question. Their findings have been publishedin the journal Environmental Pollution.The researchers reared honeybees in the laboratory and mixed various pesticides into their food—in concentrations that occur in the environment and in 10 times higher doses.The JMU team fed the honeybee larvae with the last neonicotinoid still authorized in the EU, acetamiprid—an insecticide used against the oilseed rape beetle and other sucking insects. All other neonicotinoids, which have been previously used, are now banned because they proved to be harmful to bees.The researchers also fed a mixture of the fungicides boscalid and dimoxystrobin to the honeybee larvae as well as a combination of the neonicotinoid and the two fungicides.The higher concentration of the neonicotinoid alone led to a significantly higher mortality of the larvae: 90.4% survived in the control group and only 79.8% in the neonicotinoid group. Manzer was also able to determine negative long-term effects: Adult honeybees that had ingested the neonicotinoid as larvae died significantly earlier than the bees in the control group.They reached a median age of 26 days, compared to 31 days for the control honeybees. In the environmentally relevant concentration, however, the neonicotinoid had no effect on survival rates.If the larval food contained the two fungicides only, no effect on the mortality of the insects was detected. However, the bees were lighter after hatching from the pupal stage than those in the control group. Further research will have to show whether this is relevant for their further development and behavior.The combined effects found by the researchers could have an impact on the entire bee colony as their next generation could be harmed. In addition, solitary wild bees could be particularly affected due to the more direct pesticide effects, whereas honeybees in their large colonies could buffer the effects of pesticides to a certain extent.

Researchers find one in six Australian reptile species traded as pets overseas, despite the export ban -- Australia banned the commercial export of all live native animals in 1982. But once wildlife is taken out of the country, these laws no longer apply. Many species can be legally traded without restrictions once they are beyond our borders.In our new research, we found 163 Australian reptile species and seven frogs traded as pets overseas. That's more than one in six (16%) of all Australian reptile species—and around 3% of Australian frogs. While many species may be bred in captivity to supply the pet trade, seizure records show some are still illegally taken from the wild. We need to deploy more sophisticated methods to monitor the booming online trade. Australia must also enlist the support of other countries to monitor the wildlife trade and identify those species most at risk for greater protection. We scoured the web for evidence of online trade in Australian reptiles and amphibians worldwide. Web scrapers automated our data collection and machine learning helped sift through the data for relevant information. We found Australian species being sold on 152 websites and 27 social media pages, particularly in the United States and Europe. The most commonly traded species were bearded dragons, goannas such as the ridgetail monitor, and a range of geckos including barking and knob-tail geckos. As species become rarer, their value to smugglers goes up. A species with only a few hundred individuals left in the wild can command very high prices. Unscrupulous traders often attempt to get around the law and smuggle rare and unique reptiles out of Australia.A police bust in New South Wales this year found more than 250 lizards destined for illegal export, worth up to A$1.2 million.But this is not the first time, and it won't be the last. Years of seizure recordsshow ongoing smuggling of Australian wildlife. Some species, such as theshingleback skink, are routinely targeted by poachers and smugglers, while others may be victims of opportunity.Our research found smugglers have tried to take 58 reptile and three frog species out of Australia since the export ban was introduced. It's likely many more have never been caught.

Southern California representatives call for federal state of emergency amid transboundary pollution crisis- U.S. House representatives from Southern California on Monday called for a federal state of emergency declaration, with hopes of bringing urgent relief to a region coping with toxic, transboundary air pollution.Democratic Reps. Juan Vargas, Sara Jacobs, Mike Levin and Scott Peters pressed for urgent action “in light of new findings that alarming levels of noxious gas are emanating from the Tijuana River” in a letter sent Monday to President Biden and California Gov. Gavin Newsom (D). “Recent data has made it clear that these fumes are causing an immediate and serious threat to the health and safety of residents of South San Diego, and our community needs additional support,” the lawmakers wrote.The representatives were referring to an unrelenting crisis impacting the city of Imperial Beach and its neighbors, which have for years been the cross-border recipients of wastewater laced with chemicals and pathogens. This unfettered flow, which results from insufficient treatment in Mexico, ends up in California via ocean plumes and the Tijuana River Watershed.Not only has the flow caused widespread water contamination and long-term beach closures, it has also resulted in an airborne public health threat. Just last week, researchers studying such impacts had to abandon their work due to “concerningly high” levels of toxic hydrogen sulfide gas, as reported by The San Diego Union-Tribune.In a Sunday letter, Imperial Beach Mayor Paloma Aguirre and fellow signatories — local politicians, citizens, health professionals, academics and environmental activists — called upon regional and state agencies to distribute both KN-95 masks and air purifiers to all affected areas.The congressional representatives likewise stressed the need for air purifiers and testing equipment, describing the circumstances as an “ongoing environmental disaster” that “warrants the same sense of urgency and immediate attention as any other natural or environmental disaster.”“Left unaddressed, a pollution crisis of this scale will continue to endanger our communities,” they added.

What's really 'fueling' harmful algae in Florida's lake Okeechobee? -- Lake Okeechobee is the largest lake in Florida and the second largest in the Southeastern United States. Over the past two decades, blooms of blue-green algae (Microcystis) have emerged in the lake and have been flushed into nearby urban estuaries, causing serious environmental and public health issues. Excess nutrients from industries, agriculture and urban development—particularly nitrogen and phosphorus—are well-known causes of harmful algal blooms worldwide. Historically, Lake Okeechobee has only been considered to be impaired for phosphorus, leading to targeted efforts aimed at reducing phosphorus runoff from agricultural sources in the watershed. To determine what's causing recent cyanobacterial blooms, researchers conducted two research cruises across the Lake Okeechobee Waterway and three sampling events of these blooms. They measured nitrogen isotopes in phytoplankton to see if human waste or fertilizers were involved.Results of the study, published in the journal Harmful Algae, reveal that combating harmful algal blooms in Lake Okeechobee requires managing both phosphorus and nitrogen, and that human waste played a role in influencing these Microcystis blooms. Findings also underscore the importance of rainfall and extreme rainfall events in driving these big blooms.Inorganic nitrogen levels were elevated in urbanized estuaries and the Kissimmee River, which extends north through the Kissimmee Chain of Lakes to the greater Orlando area, and its water flows into Lake Okeechobee. Furthermore, the expanding urbanization in Orlando was identified as a contributing factor to the increasing prevalence of these blooms in Lake Okeechobee."Based on our study findings, strategies focused only on reducing phosphorus aren't sufficient," said Brian Lapointe, Ph.D., senior author and a research professor at FAU Harbor Branch. "To tackle toxic cyanobacterial blooms, we need to cut back on both nitrogen and phosphorus. Managing both nutrients is crucial because of their combined impact, which often lead to more severe and persistent harmful algal blooms. In urban areas like the St. Lucie and Caloosahatchee River watersheds, human waste is a major source of these nutrients."

Study finds tire abrasion particles threaten fresh water habitats --A research team led by Prof. Dr. Markus Pfenninger from the Senckenberg Biodiversity and Climate Research Center Frankfurt (SBiK-F) has investigated the effects of tire-abrasion particles on freshwater ecosystems.Their study, now published in the journalScience of The Total Environment, shows that the toxic particle mixture resulting from road traffic harms important aquatic organisms. The researchers warn of this underestimated danger to our environment.The negative effects of road traffic on the environment, the climate, and human health are generally known and are widely discussed in society. The primary focus is on CO₂ emissions and air pollution due to exhaust fumes and particulates. Less attention is paid to emissions that are not released into the air.The nano- to micrometer-sized particles, which are continuously generated by the wear and tear of tires and road surfaces, can easily be dispersed into the environment through wind and rain. In this way, they also enter bodies of water and endanger the ecosystems."The minute tire- and road-wear particles—TRWP for short—are a chemically complex mixture of many different components such as microplastics,polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs), mineral oils, metals, tire rubber, and synthetic chemicals, including tire rubber additives and plasticizers. Every year, more than 20,000 tons of this mixture are discharged into water bodiesin Germany alone, mainly through unfiltered road runoff," explains Pfenninger.The researchers analyzed sediments from retention basins near roads and first determined the quantity and composition of the tire abrasion they contained. The midge larvae were then exposed to different concentrations of the sediments, after which the researchers measured parameters such as mortality, development, the sex ratio, fertility, and size.They further analyzed the extent to which the organisms were exposed to "oxidative stress" caused by free radicals and estimated the development of the population growth rate."We found a highly complex mixture of substances characteristic for pollution from road runoff in the urban sediments," reports Lorenzo Rigano, the study's first author and a Ph.D. student at the LOEWE Center for Translational Biodiversity Genomics (TBG)."In our laboratory tests, this mixture had complex and clearly harmful effects on the midge larvae and the adult organisms. The contaminated sediment increased mortality by almost 30%. Fertility also decreased noticeably, and there was a reduction in the number of fertile eggs per female. We were able to detect clear signs of oxidative stress, and the population growth rate was significantly reduced depending on the concentration."Our study clearly shows that tire-abrasion particles pose an underestimated threat to our waters. Collectively, the pollutants contained in the particles have a more toxic effect on aquatic organisms than each individual component would have on its own."A particularly concerning aspect highlighted by the study is the possibility that the observed reproductive disruptions could potentially persist over several generations. In addition, TRWPs contain a multitude of chemicals and pollutants that can accumulate in body tissue and thus may have cascading effects on freshwater ecosystems via the food chain.

Uncovering microplastic dynamics and patterns in coastal habitats -- Microplastics have raised concerns among scientists and the public in recent years due to their widespread presence and associated health risks. They have been found in every corner of the planet, from mountain peaks to the deep sea, and in the diets of many organisms, including humans. A significant portion of microplastic pollution originates from land-based sources, such as mismanagement of waste and shedding of microfibers from textile and domestic industries. These tiny particles travel through multiple pathways and eventually enter the ocean, posing risks to marine organisms and habitats. Singapore is home to several coastal habitats, such as coral reefs and seagrass beds. Many scientists suggest that these habitats act as microplastic traps because corals and seagrasses reduce water flow, encouraging the deposition of microplastics from the water column into the habitats and limiting the resuspension of already deposited particles. Additionally, coral reefs and seagrass beds, being transitional environments between land and the sea, intercept the transport of microplastics from land to the ocean.A team of marine ecologists, led by Associate Professor Peter Todd from the Department of Biological Sciences at NUS Faculty of Science, is contributing to our understanding of the fate and distribution of microplastics in local seagrass beds and coral reefs through three scientific journal publications released in 2024. In a study published in Marine Environmental Research in May 2024, the team examined the distribution of microplastics across areas with varying levels of vegetation within seagrass beds at Chek Jawa and Changi Beach. Upon studying the sediment samples, the team found that the seagrass beds in Singapore do not trap more microplastics compared to adjacent non-vegetated beds, regardless of vegetation density. These findings challenged previous assumptions about the role of seagrass in trapping microplastics. The NUS researchers then concluded that the presence of seagrass beds does not necessarily imply greater abundance of microplastics in the environment, as other factors such as vegetation height should also be taken into consideration. In another study published in Science of the Total Environment in April 2024, the NUS team investigated the trapping of microplastics by a local branching coral species, Pocillopora acuta. Previous research suggested that structural complexity and surface roughness of benthic-forming organisms play a role in trapping microplastics. Corals are one of the most structurally complex marine organisms. They exist in many morphologies ranging from branching to dome-shaped forms. Within the species, the branching coral Pocillopora acuta can vary in the thickness of their branches and the proximity between the branches, forming compact and open branching morphologies. While it is known that corals trap more microplastics than other benthic-forming species such as seagrass and algae, there is limited information on the role of coral morphology and surface roughness (conferred by the micro-skeletal structures and polyp actions) in trapping microplastics. To fill this knowledge gap, the team conducted experiments in a saltwater flume at the Marine and Freshwater Facility at NUS. They discovered that while corals with compact morphologies trap more microplastics, there was no difference in microplastic trapping across varying levels of surface roughness.

Cloud cover reduced by large-scale deforestation, researchers find --Researchers from iDiv, Leipzig University and Sun Yat-sen University in China have found that large-scale deforestation has a greater warming effect on the climate than previously thought. Their analysis of computer simulations and observations showed a decrease in cloud cover in these deforested areas.Deforestation has a warming effect by releasing carbon dioxide, but at the same time forests are darker than cleared areas. This effect causes cooling because less sunlight is absorbed. The new study shows that the reduction in cloud cover almost halves this cooling effect. These new findings have just been published in the journal Nature Communications."We found decreases in global low-level clouds and tropical high-level clouds from deforestation," says lead author Dr. Hao Luo from the Institute for Meteorology at Leipzig University, who co-authored the paper with his institute colleague Professor Johannes Quaas and Professor Yong Han from Sun Yat-sen University in China. Johannes Quaas adds, "Low-level clouds have a cooling effect on the climate because they reflect a lot of sunlight."The researchers analyzed idealized deforestation simulations using climate models and reanalyses, and on this basis provided insights into local decreases in global low-level clouds and tropical high-level clouds as a result of large-scale deforestation." The decreased cloud cover can be explained by alterations in surfaceturbulent heat flux, which diminishes uplift and moisture to varying extents," says Professor Quaas, who also works at the German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv) Halle-Jena-Leipzig.According to the researchers, the impact of the different meteorological processes in forests and deforested areas on clouds and the associated radiative balance has not yet been sufficiently studied. For example, researchers in meteorology and biodiversity science are currently investigating the role of forest biodiversity and its impact on clouds.

Parts of Texas ‘out of water’ as the rest dries out, ag commissioner says --Some regions of Texas have already run out of water — and the rest face a looming crisis, the state’s agriculture commissioner said on Sunday.“We lose about a farm a week in Texas, but it’s 700 years before we run out of land,” Agriculture Commissioner Sid Miller told WFAA’s Inside Texas Politics show on Sunday.“The limiting factor is water.” The front lines of the crisis is the Rio Grande Valley, where international disputes, declining groundwater, over-pumping from big agricultural growers and — above all — a deteriorating climate has eroded the ability of Texas’ Winter Garden to produce fruits and vegetables amid broader fears of cities in the state running out of water.“We’re out of water, especially in the Rio Grande Valley,” Miller told WFAA “Our tomato production in the Valley is just about gone.”“They usually grow five crops of vegetables in that area,” he added. Now “they have enough water to grow one. So, our production’s down 80 percent And it’s all about water.”Meanwhile, in the West Texas town of Pecos, once known for its melons, “you can’t get a Pecos cantaloupe anymore,” Miller said. “The wells are dry out there. You can’t find one anymore because the farmers are gone. There’s no water. They had to leave.”Miller spoke to WFAA weeks after state lawmakers, policymaker and water experts from the state’s constellation of water conservations districts found massive shortfalls between state water spending and the scale of the onrushing crisis, as KAMR reported.While the state passed $1 billion for the Texas Water Fund in 2023, the amount needed to overhaul the state’s water infrastructure sufficient to head off shortages is estimated to be more like $80 billion, per KAMR.Even if the state were sufficiently funding its water plans, it would be running a 2.4 million acre-foot-per-year deficit, Sen. Charles Perry (R) said at the Texas Alliance of Groundwater Districts meeting last month.That’s more than the entire 2 million acre-foot volume of the Highland Lakes system that the city of Austin depends on.

Deserts' biggest threat? Flooding - A new study from the USC Viterbi School of Engineering researchers, along with researchers from the Institute de Physique du Globe de Paris at the University of Paris Cité, has found that the increase in soil erosion in coastal areas due to desertification is worsening flood impacts on Middle Eastern and North African port cities.The researchers focused their observations on the devastating 2023 floods in the city of Derna, Libya, which took the lives of more than 11,300 people and showed how the increase insoil erosion significantly contributed to the catastrophic toll of these unusual desert floods. The research, published in Nature Communications, was published almost a year after the deadly flood happened on September 10, 2023. The co-authors believe that their work sheds light on the alarming vulnerability that arid areas face given the rising frequency of extreme weather events due to climate change and the urgent need for advanced earth observation programs to monitor and characterize these areas.Over the past decade, the North African Sahara, an area larger than the continental United States, has faced a dangerous combination of conditions; increasingly arid conditions which are interrupted by intense, coastal rainstorms.The source of such changes are as follows: increasing desertification has led to intensified droughts, and rainstorms in the region have increased in frequency due to the rising seawater temperature in the Eastern Mediterranean because of global warming.The paper's corresponding author, Essam Heggy, says that together, these two extreme conditions are increasing soil erosion and generating deadly mud flows that are hard to control with the aging dams that exist in the area.While some scholars believe that droughts are the Sahara's deadliest threat, Heggy warns this is not the case. His collaborating paper, "Assessing flash flood erosion following Storm Daniel in Libya," he says, provides the evidence.A year ago, in the Fall of 2023, Storm Daniel also known as "Medicane Daniel" struck the eastern coast of Libya, causing unprecedented flash floods with a death toll of more than 11,300 people and large-scale infrastructure damage. (It has been suggested by the Yale Climate Connections that flash floods of this nature have not been observed on the continent in over 100 years.)The authors explain that Africa's deadliest flood in a century, which occurred in the desert, happened due to a combination of factors: unusually high precipitation, collapses in two flood control dams, and the failure of the city's "blue" or water infrastructure to regulate this extreme event. They suggest that sediment loading, resulting from surface erosion, increased the density of flowing water and exacerbated the catastrophic impact of the flash floods in the coastal cities of Derna and Susah, where 66% of Derna's, and 48% of Susah's urban surfaces experienced moderate-to-high damages.

Summer storms found to be stronger and more frequent over urban areas --Summer storms are generally more frequent, intense and concentrated over cities than over rural areas, according to new, detailed observations of eight cities and their surroundings. The results could change how city planners prepare for floods in their cities, especially as urban areas expand and as climate change alters global weather patterns.The new study finds that more storms form over urban areas and their boundaries than in surrounding areas, and that larger cities intensify rainfallmore than smaller cities. The research was published in Earth's Future. "Cities are expected to become more populated and increase in size in the coming decades," said Herminia Torelló-Sentelles, an atmospheric scientist at the University of Lausanne and the study's lead author. "Being able to quantify urban flood risk is important forurban planning and when designing urban drainage systems."The rain effect has been reported in studies of single cities, but the new research looked for trends and differences across multiple cities. Differences in urban rainfall patterns highlight the need to keep studying storm activity in cities across the globe, Torelló-Sentelles said.Some storms have rain that falls evenly, like a sprinkler, while others drop rain in concentrated bursts, like a fire hose. The new study finds that cities can turn storms into fire hoses, dropping bursts of rainfall over small urban areas instead of spreading out the rain over a larger area. Those concentrated bursts of rainfall can exacerbate flood risks if city infrastructure cannot handle the deluge.Most cities are producing more fire hose-like storms than rural areas. Cities are also spawning more storms than their surroundings, and bigger cities are generating stronger storms than smaller cities. "It's not only intensity of rainfall that matters when you look at flood risk. It's also how it's distributed over space," "If you have a very large amount of rainfall falling over a very small area, that can collapse the drainage system in an urban area."Several factors could be causing urban storm creation and intensification, Torelló-Sentelles said. Cities are generally warmer than their cool, moist and vegetation-dense surroundings, which could cause air to be drawn toward the cities and uplifted. That warm, uplifted air then condenses into rain clouds over urban centers.Storms are also often formed as air is uplifted over mountain ranges, producing rain clouds at the mountains' peaks. Like mini mountain ranges, city skylines can create favorable environments for the uplift of air masses and the creation of storms."You can think of a city like an obstacle," Torelló-Sentelles said. "When a storm is moving toward it, the air can be lifted over and around it."

Weak & short La Niña coming: How that impacts winter -La Niña is on the way for this winter, the Climate Prediction Center said in an updated outlook Thursday, but it may not be such a powerful force to reckon with after all. La Niña happens when the waters in the eastern equatorial Pacific cool at least 0.5 degrees Celsius below average. It’s the opposite of El Niño, when those same ocean waters are warmer than average. This year, La Niña is expected officially form between now and November. The odds of La Niña continuing through winter (December-February) are at 77%, but La Niña is not expected to last long into 2025. The Climate Prediction Center described the outlook for this upcoming La Niña as “weak and short,” which would have implications for the upcoming winter forecast. La Niña usually provides a relatively predictable pattern for winters in North America, but the strength of La Niña impacts that predictability. Remember, a typical La Niña means drier and warmer weather for most of the southern states, while being wetter and colder for many of the northern tier states as the Pacific Jet Stream is usually farther north. But, according to the updated outlook, a weaker La Niña is “less likely to result in conventional winter impacts, though predictable signals could still influence the forecast guidance.” That would mean a winter outlook that only loosely resembles the map above. The Southern states may still see drier and warmer conditions, but it may not be so dramatic to be a noticeable deviation from the average. Similarly, the Pacific Northwest and Ohio Valley could still get more rain than they otherwise would, but the forecast is murkier. A weaker La Niña essentially means that the accuracy of a winter outlook may be harder to nail down without the usual influences of a strong El Niño or strong La Niña at play. When will La Niña end? This “short duration” La Niña is expected to begin at some point between September and November, then strengthen into winter. However, by early next year, it’s already favored to fade away. The Climate Prediction Center thinks it may be over by spring of 2025. Beyond that, it’s too early to say. Odds of an El Niño appearing creep up as we head through late spring 2025, but remain slim overall.

Tropical Storm “Francine” forms in Gulf of Mexico, forecasted to hit U.S. Gulf Coast as hurricane - Tropical Storm “Francine” formed in the Gulf of Mexico, off the coast of eastern Mexico, at 15:00 UTC on Monday, September 9, 2024. This is the 6^th named storm of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season. The system is expected to intensify into a hurricane as it approaches the Louisiana and Upper Texas coastline on Wednesday, September 11. The current forecast track calls for landfall in Louisiana at hurricane strength on Wednesday.

• This system is forecast to become a hurricane by Wednesday, September 11, or Wednesday night, when it reaches the northwestern Gulf Coast. There is a growing likelihood of life-threatening storm surge inundation in areas along the Upper Texas and Louisiana coastlines, where a Storm Surge Watch is currently in effect. Residents in these areas are urged to follow local officials’ instructions.
• There is an increasing risk of damaging hurricane-force winds in portions of southern Louisiana beginning on Wednesday, where a Hurricane Watch is now in effect.
• Francine is expected to bring heavy rainfall, with the potential for significant flash flooding along the coast of far northeast Mexico, the southernmost part of Texas, the Upper Texas Coast, southern Louisiana, and southern Mississippi through Thursday morning, September 12. Flash and urban flooding risks may also impact parts of the Mid-South from Wednesday through Friday morning, September 13.

As of 15:00 UTC on September 9, the center of Tropical Storm “Francine” was located 395 km (245 miles) southeast of the Mouth of Rio Grande and about 770 km (480 miles) south-southwest of Cameron, Louisiana, according to the National Hurricane Center (NHC). Francine had maximum sustained winds of 85 km/h (50 mph) and was moving north-northwest at 7 km/h (5 mph), with a minimum central pressure of 1 002 hPa. A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for the area from High Island, Texas, to the Mississippi/Alabama border, including Vermilion Bay, Lake Maurepas, and Lake Pontchartrain. A Hurricane Watch is also in place along the Louisiana coast, extending from Cameron to Grand Isle.Additionally, a Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for several regions, including from Barra del Tordo to the Mouth of the Rio Grande, from the Mouth of the Rio Grande to Port Mansfield, from east of High Island, Texas, to Cameron, Louisiana, and from west of Grand Isle to the Mouth of the Pearl River. This also includes Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas. Francine is forecasted to continue its slow north-northwestward movement throughout the remainder of today, followed by an acceleration to the northeast starting on Tuesday. According to the forecast track, Francine will remain just offshore of the northern Gulf Coast of Mexico through Tuesday, September 8, and is expected to approach the Louisiana and Upper Texas coastline by Wednesday, September 9. Gradual intensification is expected over the next day with more significant intensification on Tuesday Night and Wednesday. Francine is expected to become a hurricane before it reaches the northwestern U.S. Gulf Coast on Wednesday.Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area by Wednesday afternoon, with tropical storm conditions possible by Wednesday morning. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area along the northern coast of Mexico and extreme southern Texas beginning on Tuesday, September 10, and for the extreme northern Texas and portions of the Louisiana coast on Wednesday.Francine is expected to bring total rainfall of 100 – 200 mm (4 – 8 inches), with local amounts up to 300 mm (12 inches), from the coast of far northeast Mexico northward along portions of the southern Texas coast, the far upper Texas coast, and across southern Louisiana and southern Mississippi into Thursday morning.This rainfall could lead to the risk of considerable flash and urban flooding. The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide:

• Cameron, LA to Port Fourchon, LA: 1.5 – 3 m (5 – 10 feet)
• Vermilion Bay: 1.5 – 3 m (5 – 10 feet)
• Port Fourchon, LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River, LA: 1.2 – 2.1 m (4 – 7 feet)
• High Island, TX to Cameron, LA: 0.9 – 1.5 m (3 – 5 feet)

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves.

Hurricane “Francine” to hit Louisiana today with powerful winds and dangerous storm surge, U.S. - Hurricane “Francine” is forecast to make landfall along the Louisiana coast, between the Vermilion/Cameron line and Grand Isle, on Wednesday, September 11, 2024. A life-threatening storm surge and hurricane-force winds are expected, with warnings in effect across Louisiana and Mississippi. The storm is also forecast to bring heavy rainfall, increasing the risk of flash flooding across the region through Thursday. Satellite image of Hurricane "Francine" at 12:50 UTC on September 11, 2024. Credit: NOAA/GOES-East, RAMMB/CIRA, The Watchers Tropical Storm “Francine” intensified into a hurricane at 00:00 UTC on September 10, 2024, around 560 km (350 miles) SW of Morgan City, Louisiana. Landfall is forecast along the Louisiana coast, between the Vermilion/Cameron line and Grand Isle, on Wednesday, September 11. A life-threatening storm surge is expected today along the coastlines of Louisiana and Mississippi, where a Storm Surge Warning is currently in effect. Residents in these areas should adhere to advice and evacuation orders issued by local authorities. Damaging, life-threatening hurricane-force winds are forecast for southern Louisiana later today, with a Hurricane Warning in place. Tropical storm conditions are expected to develop in the region this morning, and preparations to safeguard life and property should already be completed. Francine is expected to bring heavy rainfall with a significant risk of flash and urban flooding in southeastern Louisiana, Mississippi, far southern Alabama, and northern Florida through Thursday night. Flash and urban flooding is likely across the Lower Tennessee Valley and Lower Mississippi Valley from Wednesday night into Friday morning. Louisiana Governor Jeff Landry has officially requested a Presidential Emergency Declaration for the State of Louisiana in anticipation of the severe impacts of Hurricane “Francine.” In a letter sent to President Joe Biden, Governor Landry asked for the emergency declaration to be effective as of September 9, 2024, to ensure swift federal assistance in response to the approaching storm. The request comes as Louisiana faces the threat of torrential rainfall, damaging winds, and tornadoes spawned by the hurricane, which could endanger both lives and property across the state. Governor Landry said that the severity of the storm exceeds the capacity of state and local governments to respond effectively. “After declaring a State of Emergency, we have now determined that this storm is of such severity that an effective response is beyond the capabilities of the state and local governments. This federal assistance is needed to save lives and property, and I look forward to President Biden quickly approving this request,” Landry said. Satellite image of Hurricane “Francine” at 13:00 UTC on September 11, 2024. Credit: NOAA/GOES-East, RAMMB/CIRA, The Watchers “As expected, Francine has strengthened and become better organized overnight,” NHC forecaster Reinhart said at 09:00 UTC on September 11. “Radar data and earlier reports from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters indicate the eyewall is better defined, with deep convection wrapping around the center of the hurricane. The eyewall has contracted a bit from earlier, although it was open to the south on the last fix and in more recent GMI passive microwave images.” At 12:00 UTC the center of Hurricane “Francine” was located about 315 km (195 miles) SW of Morgan City. The system had maximum sustained winds of 150 km/h (90 mph) and a minimum central pressure of 976 hPa, according to the National Hurricane Center (NHC). Francine is moving northeast at 19 km/h (12 mph), with a faster northeastward motion expected later today. The storm is forecast to make landfall in Louisiana within the warning area this afternoon or evening. After landfall, a gradual turn toward the north will bring the center of Francine across eastern Louisiana and Mississippi. A Storm Surge Warning is currently in effect for areas from Cameron, Louisiana, to the Mississippi/Alabama border, including Vermilion Bay, Lake Maurepas, and Lake Pontchartrain. This means that dangerous storm surges are expected in these regions. A Hurricane Warning covers the Louisiana coast from the Vermilion/Cameron line to Grand Isle, indicating that hurricane conditions are imminent. A Storm Surge Watch extends from the Mississippi/Alabama border to the Alabama/Florida border, including Mobile Bay, while a Hurricane Watch applies to Lake Maurepas and Lake Pontchartrain, including New Orleans. Additionally, a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the Louisiana coast east of Sabine Pass to the Vermilion/Cameron line, Grand Isle to the Alabama/Florida border, as well as for Lake Maurepas and Lake Pontchartrain, including the New Orleans metro area.

Hurricane Francine Bearing Down On Louisiana | Weather.com - Hurricane Francine's dangerous eyewall is coming ashore in southern Louisiana with a landfall expected soon. Dangerous storm surge, flooding rainfall, damaging winds and tornadoes will impact Louisiana and other parts of the Gulf Coast and South. Hurricane conditions are arriving in southern Louisiana. A wind gust of 99 mph was recently reported on Eugene Island, Louisiana. Flooding is also being reported in several spots in southern Louisiana, including Cocodrie and Dulac.New Orleans' Lakefront Airport has reported a 47 mph wind gust while two stations have reported gusts over 50 mph. Gusts at offshore oil rigs have gusted as high as 112 mph on elevated platforms. A hurricane warning is in effect along the Louisiana coast from the Cameron-Vermilion Parish line to Grand Isle and also extends inland into parts of south-central Louisiana including Baton Rouge, Houma and New Iberia.Areas near the coast from Cameron, Louisiana, to the Mississippi-Alabama border are in a storm surge warning. This means hurricane conditions (74+ mph winds) and life threatening storm surge are expected in these areas Wednesday.Tropical storm warnings extend from southwest Louisiana into much of southern Mississippi to Baldwin and Mobile Counties, Alabama. The New Orleans metro area is included in a tropical storm warning, meaning sustained winds of at least 39 to 73 mph are expected there later today and tonight.A​ hurricane watch is also in effect for the New Orleans metro area, including Lakes Pontchartrain and Maurepas. This means hurricane conditions are possible this afternoon and evening.The map below shows where hurricane and tropical storm watches and/or warnings are currently in effect. A​ tornado watch is now also in effect for southeastern Louisiana and deep southern Mississippi, including New Orleans and Gulfport, Mississippi. Francine is forecast to make landfall within the hurricane warning area of the central Louisiana coast soon with little change in intensity expected before landfall. A​fter landfall, Francine will spread rainfall and strong wind gusts across eastern Louisiana and parts of Mississippi through tonight. Rainfall from Francine and its remnants will affect other parts of the Southeast to as far north as the lower Ohio and Tennessee valleys late this week. F​rancine may eventually get stuck in the mid-Mississippi Valley late this week. Here's what is ahead for Francine once it is inland.L​ife-threatening storm surge will inundate low-lying areas along the Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama coasts.A​ccording to the National Hurricane Center, peak inundation may reach 5 to 10 feet in parts of southern Louisiana, including Vermilion Bay, if the storm surge arrives at the time of high tide. Flooding is also expected along the shores of lakes Pontchartrain and Maurepas, where the surge could be 3 to 6 feet.This peak push of water is expected to arrive within a few hours either side of landfall. However, some parts of the Gulf Coast as far east as Mobile Bay may see coastal flooding linger into Thursday morning.H​urricane conditions are arriving within areas under hurricane warnings in southern Louisiana and continue into tonight.These winds will be capable of downing numerous trees and widespread power outages could last for several days after the storm is over in this area.Tropical storm force winds are likely in other parts of eastern Louisiana, southern Mississippi and southern Alabama, including in New Orleans, Biloxi, Mississippi, and Mobile, Alabama. Power outages and some downed trees are expected in these areas. Francine has made landfall in Terrebonne Parish, about 30 miles south-southwest of Morgan City, as a Category 2 hurricane after rapidly intensifying Wednesday. Winds are estimated to be near 100 mph Francine is moving northeastward through southern Louisiana. Maximum sustained winds were 100 mph as of 5 p.m. CDT, making Francine a Category 2 hurricane.Areas of rain and wind continue to push into Louisiana and other parts of the northern Gulf Coast.

LIVE: Francine makes landfall in southern Terrebonne Parish- Hurricane Francine was upgraded to a Category 2 storm as it sped toward landfall in Terrebonne Parish on Wednesday. As of 5 p.m., the National Hurricane Center said Francine made landfall in southern Terrebonne Parish with sustained winds of 100 mph. The hurricane’s severe weather threats inland will happen into the night. A Tornado Watch was issued for all of southeast Louisiana until 11 p.m. Residents should prepare for fast-developing tornado warnings as conditions deteriorate. The National Weather Service expects Francine to drive a “life-threatening” storm surge of 5 to 10 feet from the Cameron-Vermillion parish line to Port Fourchon. The hurricane’s severe weather threats inland will happen into the night. The National Weather Service’s predicted track takes the storm inland in southern Terrebonne Parish and moves through the northeast, passing between Baton Rouge and Hammond before heading into southwest Mississippi by Wednesday night. Eventually, the worry in southeast Louisiana will become the eye wall and landfall of Francine. That should approach the coast between 4 and 6 p.m. Wednesday evening. Conditions will quickly deteriorate, leading to hurricane-force winds, flooding rainfall, and storm surge. All residents should stay alert to the weather today and rush their preparations to completion.

Hurricane Francine makes landfall in Louisiana as Category 2 storm - Hurricane Francine has made landfall in southern Louisiana as a Category 2 hurricane. Landfall occurred in Terrebonne Parish, Louisiana, about 30 miles south-southwest of Morgan City, Louisiana, the National Hurricane Center said in a 5 p.m. incremental update. Francine is moving toward the northeast at 17 mph. This general motion should continue as heavy rains and hurricane-force winds spread inland across southern Louisiana. Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph, according to data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft. An oil platform southeast of the center reported sustained winds of 79 mph and a peak gust of 105 mph. A National Ocean Service station at Eugene Island, Louisiana, reported sustained winds of 76 mph and a wind gust of 99 mph. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles from Francine’s center and tropical storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles. Map of lower United States and Gulf of Mexico showing probable path of Hurricane Francine The probable path for Hurricane Francine is shown within the cone, valid at 4 p.m. CT on Sept. 11, 2024. The storm is expected to make landfall in Louisiana early Wednesday evening as a Category hurricane.Courtesy National Hurricane Center The center of the storm is expected to cross southeastern Louisiana Wednesday night and then move northward across Mississippi on Thursday and Thursday night. The storm is expected to rapidly weaken now that it has made landfall, and the system is forecast to become post-tropical on Thursday. Louisiana state officials said during a news conference late Wednesday morning that the time to evacuate had expired. “Now is the time to hunker down and ride this storm out,” said Tony Robinson, the Federal Emergency Management Agency’s regional administrator for Louisiana. “I know that we have been through a lot here in Louisiana, but I urge everyone to take the necessary preparations,” said Louisiana Gov. Jeff Landry, who urged residents to “stay off the roads, stay home and stay put.” Landry said the Louisiana National Guard was being sent to parishes that could be impacted by Francine. President Joe Biden granted an emergency declaration that will help Louisiana secure federal money and logistical assistance from partners such as the Federal Emergency Management Agency. Both Landry and Mississippi Gov. Tate Reeves also declared states of emergency, authorizing them to quickly free up resources for disaster assistance Map of lower United States and Gulf of Mexico showing potential rainfall amounts from Hurricane Francine The rainfall potential from Hurricane Francine, valid at 7 p.m. CT on Sept. 11, 2024. Some areas could see up to a foot of rain.Courtesy National Hurricane Center Francine is expected to bring storm total rainfall of 4 to 8 inches, with local amounts to 12 inches, across southeastern Louisiana, Mississippi, far southern Alabama and the Florida Panhandle through Thursday night. This rainfall could lead to considerable flash, urban and river flooding, the hurricane center said. Map of lower United States and Gulf of Mexico showing peak storm surge forecast along Gulf coast The peak storm surge forecast for Francine from the National Hurricane Center, valid at 4 p.m. CT on Sept. 11, 2024. The worst of the surge is expected to be between Burns Point and Port Fourchon.Courtesy National Hurricane Center The hurricane center has tweaked its watches and warnings as Hurricane Francine zeroes in on the Louisiana coast. A storm surge warning is in effect for the Vermilion-Cameron Parish line in Louisiana to the Mississippi-Alabama border, including the Vermilion Bay, Lake Maurepas and Lake Pontchartrain. The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the east of where landfall occurs, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle and can vary greatly over short distances. Storm surge is not expected to pose a threat to the risk reduction system levees. However, there may be some overtopping of local levees, forecasters said. The water could reach the following heights if the peak surge occurs at the same time as high tide:

• Burns Point, Louisiana, to Port Fourchon, Louisiana: 5 to 10 feet.
• Port Fourchon to the mouth of the Mississippi River: 4 to 7 feet.
• Mouth of the Pearl River in Louisiana to Ocean Springs, Mississippi: 4 to 6 feet.
• Lake Pontchartrain: 4 to 6 feet.
  Ocean Springs to the Mississippi-Alabama border: 3 to 5 feet.
• Intracoastal City, Louisiana, to Burns Point: 3 to 5 feet.
• Lake Maurepas: 3 to 5 feet.

. A hurricane warning is in effect for the Louisiana coast from the Vermilion-Cameron line eastward to Grand Isle. A hurricane warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A hurricane watch is in effect for Lake Maurepas and Lake Pontchartrain, including metropolitan New Orleans. A hurricane watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A tropical storm warning is in effect for the Louisiana coast from Cameron to the Vermilion-Cameron line; East of Grand Isle, Louisiana, to the Alabama-Florida border; and at Lake Maurepas and Lake Pontchartrain, including metropolitan New Orleans. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A tornado watch has been issued for much of southeastern Louisiana and the entire Mississippi coast until 11 p.m. CT. According to the National Weather Service, 807 schools, 85 hospitals, and more than 2.5 million people are under the tornado watch. The watch begins south of Abbeville, Louisiana and extends to the Alabama-Mississippi border.

Thousands in the dark as Hurricane Francine strikes Louisiana, raising flood fears (AP) — Hurricane Francine slammed into the Louisiana coast Wednesday evening as a dangerous Category 2 storm that knocked out electricity to more than a quarter-million customers and threatened widespread flooding as it sent a potentially deadly storm surge rushing inland along the Gulf Coast.Francine crashed ashore in Terrebonne Parish, about 30 miles (50 kilometers) southwest of Morgan City, the National Hurricane Center announced at 4 p.m. CDT. Packing top sustained winds near 100 mph (155 kph), the hurricane then battered a fragile coastal region that hasn’t fully recovered from a series of devastating hurricanes in 2020 and 2021.Morgan City Fire Chief Alvin Cockerham said the hurricane quickly flooded streets, snapped power lines and sent tree limbs crashing down.“It’s a little bit worse than what I expected to be honest with you,” Cockerham said of the onslaught. “I pulled all my trucks back to the station. It’s too dangerous to be out there in this.”There were no immediate reports of deaths or injuries.TV news broadcasts from coastal communities showed waves from nearby lakes, rivers and Gulf waters thrashing sea walls. Water poured into city streets amid blinding downpours. Oak and cypress trees leaned in the high winds, and some utility poles swayed back and forth. As Francine continued its trek inland, it spread drenching rains over New Orleans and surrounding areas, raising flooding fears.Power outages in Louisiana topped 261,000 hours after landfall, spread widely across southeast Louisiana. Blackouts affected the majority of homes and businesses in coastal parishes nearest where the storm came ashore as well as their inland neighbors, according to the tracking site poweroutage.us. The National Hurricane Center urged residents to stay sheltered overnight as the weakening hurricane churned inland. The storm’s projected path included New Orleans, where forecasters said the storm’s eye could pass through.The sixth named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season, Francine drew fuel from exceedingly warm Gulf of Mexico waters, strengthening to a Category 2 storm with winds exceeding 96 mph (155 kph) hours in the hours before landfall.Still dangerous, the storm began weakening as it rushed inland. Three hours after landfall it barely remained a hurricane, with top sustained winds down to 75 mph (120 kph. Francine was moving northeast at a fast clip of 17 mph (28 kph) on a path toward New Orleans, about 50 miles (80 kilometers) away.It was forecast to weaken further while pushing northward through Mississippi on Thursday, with widespread rains in the coming days bringing potential flash flooding to cities including Jackson, Mississippi; Birmingham, Alabama; Memphis, Tennessee; and Atlanta. It also raised the threat of spin-off tornadoes.Much of Louisiana and Mississippi could get 4 to 8 inches (10 to 20 centimeters) of rain, with the possibility of 12 inches (30 centimeters) in some spots, said Brad Reinhart, a senior hurricane specialist at the hurricane center.Louisiana Gov. Jeff Landry said the National Guard would fan out to parishes impacted by Francine. They have food, water, nearly 400 high-water vehicles, about 100 boats and 50 helicopters to respond to the storm, including for possible search-and-rescue operations. Since the mid-19th century, some 57 hurricanes have tracked over or made landfall in Louisiana, according to The Weather Channel. Among them are some of the strongest, costliest and deadliest storms in U.S. history. Morgan City, home to around 11,500 people, sits on the banks of the Atchafalaya River in south Louisiana and is surrounded by lakes and marsh. It’s described on the city’s website as “gateway to the Gulf of Mexico for the shrimping and oilfield industries.”President Joe Biden granted an emergency declaration to help Louisiana secure expedited federal money and assistance. Landry and Mississippi Gov. Tate Reeves also declared states of emergency.The Mississippi Emergency Management Agency said it distributed more than 100,000 sandbags to the southern part of the state and the Department of Education reported a number of school district closures for Wednesday and Thursday amid expectations the storm would cross the state.Francine had prompted storm surge warnings on the Louisiana coast of as much as 10 feet (3 meters) from Cameron to Port Fourchon and into Vermilion Bay.

Francine weakens to tropical depression, drenching Mississippi — Francine drenched Mississippi and knocked out power to thousands, but according to Gov. Tate Reeves, no injuries have been reported.Officials with the National Hurricane Center downgraded Francine to a tropical depression at 7 a.m. Thursday as winds dipped down to 35 mph. Still, the storm dropped heavy rain across portions of Mississippi, bringing with it the chance of flash flooding.Reeves said more than 160 people stayed in shelters Wednesday night.Hurricane Francine made landfall about 5 p.m. Wednesday in Terrebonne Parish, Louisiana, with winds around 100 mph. It was downgraded to a tropical storm as it moved inland and into Mississippi, then to a depression as it moved over central portions of the state.With heavy winds and drenching rains, the system blacked out more than 300,000 homes and businesses across Louisiana and Mississippi while sending storm surge rushing into coastal communities and the threat of scattered flash flooding elsewhere."Several roads are closed in coastal and central counties due to flooding," Reeves said in a 7:40 a.m. update on social media. "The state of Mississippi remains in contact with local emergency managers, and damage assessments will begin this morning."Reeves declared a state of emergency on Tuesday. More than 100,000 sandbags were deployed by the Mississippi Emergency Management Agency to counties in preparation for the storm.Francine was expected to continue weakening, becoming a post-tropical cyclone later in the day, and to slow down as it turns to the north over the next day, moving over central and northern Mississippi through early Friday.

'Extreme Caution' Urged In Louisiana, Hundreds Of Thousands Still Without Power Thursday From Francine | Weather.com -- Louisiana woke up to flooded roads and snapped trees, with hundreds of thousands still in the dark due to power outages this morning. Francine, now a tropical depression, made landfall as a Category 2 hurricane. A​ photo shared on X, formerly Twitter, shows a parked car crushed by a fallen tree in Leverett, Mississippi. The community is about 100 miles north of Jackson.Several homes are damaged and about 40 utility poles need to be replaced in Lafourche Parish, Sheriff Craig Webre told The Weather Channel's Justin Michaels. Assessments are ongoing."You have to recall though, and put in perspective, we were ground zero for Hurricane Ida, that cataclysmic storm that decimated Lafourche Parish. Probably 90% of the homes had to have roofs if they still existed, 4,000 utility poles had to be replaced," Webre said. "So compared to that, this is maybe a speed bump."H​e added that getting electricity restored is the biggest challenge. Power remains out out for about 85% of the parish's utility customers, according to PowerOutage.com. Sure, it's like not again, we still have people living in trailers and that were from Ida and we still have businesses and buildings that are still being repaired. But fortunately, in terms of intensity and duration, it pales in comparison to hurricane IDA.W​orld Chef Kitchen Serving Meals, T​he nonprofit was founded by famed Spanish chef Jose Andres after a devastating 2010 earthquake in Haiti. Now, the group is often among the first to respond to disasters. F​ree meals are available in Terrebonne Parish at Barry P. Bonvillain Civic Center starting at 1 p.m. local time today. There will 1,000 hot meals and 1,000 cold meals available, according to an announcement from parish government. T​his is the third hurricane World Chef Kitchen has responded to this year. Photos show the mess Francine left behind in Louisiana, including damaged buildings, downed trees and scattered debris. You can see the photos here, or click through the slideshow below

Typhoon “Yagi” makes landfall near Haiphong as strongest tropical cyclone ever to strike Vietnam - typhoon yagi at 0530 utc on september 7 2024 Extremely dangerous Typhoon “Yagi” made landfall over Cát Bà Island near Haiphong in Quảng Ninh Province, Vietnam, at around 06:00 UTC (13:00 LT) on September 7, 2024. The typhoon brought maximum sustained winds of 205 km/h (125 mph) near its center and a minimum central pressure of 942 hPa, making it the strongest recorded tropical cyclone to strike Vietnam. A catastrophic storm surge of 4 to 5 meters (14 to 16 feet) was forecast for Haiphong, one of the hardest-hit cities, with a population of two million. The storm surge, accompanied by powerful winds and intense rainfall, created near-zero visibility in Haiphong and Ha Long City. Winds began battering Quảng Ninh Province by 11:00 LT, causing significant damage. In Hạ Long, streets were empty as the storm intensified. Boats anchored in Hạ Long Bay were swept away by the strong winds. Metal roofs and debris were blown into the sea, and numerous trees were uprooted. Heavy steel awnings weighing hundreds of kilograms were seen torn from buildings and falling onto roads. The storm caused a widespread power outage in the province, affecting more than 238 000 customers. Four airports, including Hanoi’s Noi Bai, were temporarily closed, and more than 300 flights were canceled. Schools were also closed in 12 northern provinces, including the capital Hanoi. Even before landfall, heavy rains and gusty winds caused extensive damage in Hanoi. The Vietnamese government evacuated nearly 50 000 people from coastal areas and deployed 450 000 military personnel for relief efforts.Prior to hitting Vietnam, Yagi made landfall on Hainan Island, China, on September 6, causing two fatalities and injuring dozens. Power outages affected more than 800 000 homes in southern China as the storm intensified over the Gulf of Tonkin. On September 2, while still a tropical storm, Yagi struck Luzon Island in the Philippines, resulting in at least 16 deaths due to heavy rainfall.

Typhoon “Yagi” wreaks havoc in Vietnam, claims 59 lives and leaves 25 missing after making landfall – (videos) At least 11 people have been confirmed dead, and nine others are still missing following severe flash floods caused by extremely heavy rains that have battered Morocco since Friday, September 6, 2024. Some areas experienced a year’s worth of rainfall in just two days. Moroccan authorities reported on Sunday that 11 people had died and nine others were missing after severe flash floods caused by an “exceptional” climate phenomenon hit the southern regions of the country. According to Rachid Khalfi, the interior ministry spokesman, the deaths were caused by “heavy thunderstorms” that affected “17 prefectures and provinces.” Among the victims, seven died in Tata province, approximately 740 km (460 miles) south of Rabat, and two more were found in Errachidia province, located nearly 500 km (311 miles) east of Marrakesh. According to Khalfi, the amount of rain recorded in these regions since Friday was equivalent to the annual precipitation levels normally observed. Meteorological experts said the rainfall was a result of an “extremely unstable tropical air mass.” Lhoussaine Youabd, a spokesman for the Moroccan General Directorate of Meteorology, explained that this weather system created “unstable and violent clouds,” leading to massive rainfall. He called the event “exceptional.” Tagounite, near the Algerian border, registered 170 mm (6.7 inches) of precipitation on Saturday, September 7. Marrakech recorded 90 mm (3.54 inches), Asni 83 mm (3.27 inches), and Essaouira 80 mm (3.15 inches). In the Ouarzazate region, 47 mm (1.85 inches) of rain fell within three hours. The region of southern Morocco, including cities such as Marrakech, Essaouira, Ouarzazate, and smaller towns like Tagounite and Asni, experiences relatively low rainfall, particularly in September. For example, Marrakech typically receives around 15 – 20 mm (0.6 – 0.8 inches) of rainfall in September, while Essaouira, being closer to the coast, gets about 10 – 15 mm (0.4 – 0.6 inches). Ouarzazate, which is located in a desert region, averages just 5 – 10 mm (0.2 – 0.4 inches) during the same month. Annually, the rainfall varies across these areas, with Marrakech receiving approximately 240 – 280 mm (9.5 – 11 inches), Essaouira about 300 – 350 mm (12 – 14 inches), and Ouarzazate only 50 – 100 mm (2 – 4 inches). Towns like Tagounite and Asni, situated near the Sahara and Atlas Mountains, experience similarly low levels of annual precipitation due to their arid surroundings.

Typhoon Yagi collapses busy bridge in Vietnam --A busy bridge in northern Vietnam collapsed after being hit by Super Typhoon Yagi, which has killed more than 60 people since making landfall on Saturday. Dashcam footage showed the moment the Phong Chau bridge in Phu Tho province gave way on Monday, plunging several vehicles into the water below. Searches were under way for 13 people. Vietnam's most powerful storm in 30 years has wreaked havoc across the north of the country, leaving 1.5 million people without power. Although it has now weakened into a tropical depression, authorities have warned Yagi will create more disruption as it moves westwards. More than 240 people have been injured by the typhoon, which brought winds of up to 203 km/h (126 mph) and is Asia’s most powerful storm so far this year. Ten cars and two scooters fell into the Red River following the collapse of the Phong Chau bridge, Deputy Prime Minister Ho Duc Phoc said. At least three people have been rescued from the river so far. Nguyen Minh Hai said he was riding across the bridge on his motorcycle when it collapsed. "I was so scared when I fell down," he said, speaking from hospital. "I feel like I’ve just escaped death. I can’t swim and I thought I would have died." Part of the 375-m (1230-ft) structure is still standing, and the military has been instructed to build a pontoon bridge across the gap as soon as possible. At least 44 of those who died in Vietnam were killed in landslides and flash floods, according to the ministry of agriculture and rural development. Among them were a 68-year-old woman, a one-year-old boy, and a newborn baby. The typhoon tore roofs from buildings, uprooted trees, and left widespread damage to infrastructure and factories in the north. Photos by Reuters news agency show that the walls of an LG Electronics factory in Hai Phong city have collapsed. In the Yen Bai province, flood waters reached a metre high on Monday, with 2,400 families evacuated to higher ground as levels rose, AFP news agency reported. Nearly 50,000 people have been evacuated from coastal towns in Vietnam, with authorities issuing a warning to remain indoors. Schools were temporarily closed in 12 northern provinces, including Hanoi. Nguyen Thi Thom, who owns a restaurant in Ha Long Bay on the north-east coast, said she and many other people had lost everything in the storm. "There is nothing left. When I look around, people have also lost all they had, just like me," she said. "I can only try to recover from this." Before hitting Vietnam, Yagi left 24 people dead across southern China and the Philippines.

Typhoon Yagi kills dozens in Vietnam, China, Philippines — Typhoon Yagi, Asia’s most powerful storm this year, was downgraded to a tropical depression on Sunday, after wreaking havoc in northern Vietnam, China’s Hainan and the Philippines, claiming dozens of lives, according to preliminary reports. Vietnam’s meteorological agency issued the downgrade on Sunday but cautioned about the ongoing risk of flooding and landslides as the storm, the strongest to hit the country in decades, moves westwards. On Saturday, Yagi disrupted power supplies and telecommunications in Vietnam’s capital, Hanoi, causing extensive flooding, felling thousands of trees and damaging homes. The government said the storm has led to at least three deaths in Hanoi, a city of 8.5 million, with these figures being preliminary. Fourteen people have died in Vietnam so far, according to reports, including four from a landslide in the province of Hoa Binh, about 100 kilometers (62 miles) south of Hanoi. A 53-year-old motorcyclist was killed after a tree fell on him in the northern Hai Duong province, state media reported. At least one body was recovered from the sea near the coastal city of Halong, where a dozen people were missing at sea, with rescue operations expected to start on Sunday when conditions allow. Yagi has claimed the lives of four people on the southern Chinese island of Hainan, according to the latest update from local authorities. The civil defense office in the Philippines, the first country Yagi hit after forming last week, raised the death toll there on Sunday to 20 from 16 and said 22 people remained missing. After it made landfall in Vietnam on Saturday afternoon, Yagi triggered waves as high as 4 meters (13 feet) in coastal provinces, leading to extended power and telecommunication outages that have complicated damage assessment, the government said. The meteorological agency warned of continued “risk of flash floods near small rivers and streams, and landslides on steep slopes in many places in the northern mountainous areas” and the coastal province of Thanh Hoa. Relative calm returned on Sunday morning to Hanoi, where authorities rushed to clean up streets from toppled trees scattered across the city center and other neighborhoods. “The storm has devastated the city. Trees fell down on top of people’s houses, cars and people on the street,” said 57-year-old Hanoi resident Hoang Ngoc Nhien. Hanoi’s Noi Bai international airport, the busiest in northern Vietnam, reopened on Sunday after closing on Saturday morning. In Hainan, preliminary estimates suggested significant economic losses and widespread power outages, according to emergency response authorities cited by state-run Hainan Daily.

Typhoon Yagi unleashes destruction in Vietnam, threatens Hanoi (Reuters) - The death toll in Vietnam from Asia's worst storm this year reached 127 on Tuesday, with torrents of rain triggering floods and landslides, burying homes, sweeping away a bridge and now threatening the capital Hanoi. In several northern provinces, including the suburbs of Hanoi, residents waded through knee-high floods. Brown water cascaded down pedestrian steps. Landslides and floods triggered by the typhoon have killed at least 127 people in northern Vietnam and 54 others were missing, the disaster management agency said on Tuesday in its latest update on the situation. Most of the victims were killed in landslides and flash floods, the agency said, adding that 764 people have been injured. The typhoon made landfall on Saturday on Vietnam's northeastern coast, devastating a swathe of industrial and residential areas and bringing heavy rain that caused floods and landslides. It had previously hit the Philippines and the southern Chinese island of Hainan. "I have to leave everything behind as the water is rising too fast," said Nguyen Thi Tham, a 60-year-old resident living in the flood-prone area near the Red River in Hanoi, by phone. She had only been able to take her dog with her. She was among a number of people evacuated by boat to a safe shelter early on Tuesday. It was not immediately clear how many Hanoi residents needed to be evacuated. Several rivers in northern Vietnam have risen to alarming levels, leaving villages and residential areas inundated, according to the disaster agency and state media. A 30-year-old bridge over the Red River in the northern province of Phu Tho collapsed on Monday, leaving eight people missing. Authorities across the north on Tuesday subsequently banned or limited traffic on other bridges across the river, including Chuong Duong Bridge, one of the largest in Hanoi, according to state media reports. "Water levels on the Red River are rising rapidly," the government said on Tuesday in a post on its Facebook account. Using loudspeakers that broadcast Communist propaganda in the past, officials warned residents of the capital's riverside Long Bien district to be on alert for possible flooding, and to be ready to evacuate the area. Other northern areas, including the industrial hubs of Bac Giang and Thai Nguyen, were also facing severe flooding, state media reported. It was not immediately clear if Samsung Electronics and Apple supplier Foxconn, based in Thai Nguyen and Bac Giang, respectively, were affected. Evacuations were also taking place from flood-prone areas in Bac Giang province, the government said, where the typhoon and floods have caused damage estimated for now to be worth 300 billion dong ($12.1 million). More than 4,600 soldiers have been deployed in the province to support the evacuation and support flood victims. Vietnam's foreign ministry asked China to notify it ahead of any release of dam water upstream. Lao Cai province has reported the highest casualties, with 19 people killed and 36 missing, mostly in landslides, according to the disaster management agency. The government has yet not provided estimates of the cost of the damage caused by the typhoon, but residents in the coastal cities of Haiphong and Quang Ninh, where the storm first hit Vietnam, said they "lost everything". Floods have also inundated 162,828 hectares and 29,543 hectares of cash crops and damaged nearly 50,000 houses in northern Vietnam, according to the agency.

Thousands evacuated from Hanoi as Typhoon Yagi death toll reaches 179 | Al Jazeera -Thousands of people have been evacuated from Vietnam’s capital Hanoi as the Red River’s waters rose to a 20-year high, flooding streets days after Typhoon Yagi battered the country’s north, killing at least 179 people. Asia’s most powerful typhoon this year, Yagi brought gales and heavy rain as it moved westwards after landfall on Saturday, causing the collapse of a bridge this week while it scythed through provinces along the Red River, the area’s biggest. Across the country, the typhoon and subsequent landslides and floods have killed 179 people while 145 were missing, the government estimated on Wednesday. Mai Van Khiem, head of the national weather bureau, told state media that the water level in the Red River in Hanoi was at its highest since 2004, warning of serious widespread flooding in the provinces surrounding the capital in the days to come. Thousands of people were evacuated from the city on Wednesday. Police, soldiers and volunteers helped residents to leave their homes on the riverbanks as the water level rose rapidly. A police official in Hanoi said officers were going on foot or by boat to check every house along the river. “All residents must leave,” he said, refusing to be named. “We are bringing them to public buildings turned into temporary shelters or they can stay with relatives. There has been so much rain and the water is rising quickly.” Yagi has also forced the closure of many factories and flooded warehouses in industrial hubs east of Hanoi, with some only expected to resume full operations after weeks, executives said. The disruptions threaten global supply chains as Vietnam hosts large operations of multinationals. Vietnam’s state-run power utility EVN said on Wednesday that it had cut off power from some flooded parts of the capital due to safety concerns. Some schools in Hanoi have told students to stay home for the rest of the week, while thousands of residents of low-lying areas have been evacuated, the government and state media said. Nearer the city centre, charity Blue Dragon Children’s Foundation evacuated its office on Tuesday, after authorities warned of flood risks. “People were moving frantically, moving their motorbikes, relocating items,” said spokesperson Carlota Torres Lliro, expressing concern for dozens of children and families living in makeshift houses by the river.

Hanoi flooded by swollen river as Typhoon Yagi leaves 179 dead (Reuters) - Vietnam's capital of Hanoi evacuated thousands of people living near the swollen Red River as its waters rose to a 20-year high, flooding streets days after Typhoon Yagi battered the country's north, killing at least 179 people. Asia's most powerful typhoon this year, Yagi brought gales and heavy rain as it moved westwards after landfall on Saturday, causing the collapse of a bridge this week while it scythed through provinces along the Red River, the area's biggest. "My home is now part of the river," said Nguyen Van Hung, 56, who lives in a neighbourhood on the banks of the Red River. Across the country, the typhoon and subsequent landslides and floods have killed 179 people while 145 were missing, the government estimated. Vietnam's state-run power utility EVN said on Wednesday it had cut off power from some flooded parts of the capital due to safety concerns. Mai Van Khiem, director of the National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting, said in a statement that the Red River was at its highest in two decades and that more rain was expected over the next two days. Some schools in Hanoi have told students to stay home for the rest of the week, while thousands of residents of low-lying areas have been evacuated, the government and state media said. Nearer the city centre, charity Blue Dragon Children's Foundation evacuated its office on Tuesday, after authorities warned of flood risks. "People were moving frantically, moving their motorbikes, relocating items," said spokesperson Carlota Torres Lliro, expressing concern for dozens of children and families living in makeshift houses by the river. EVN said on Wednesday it had stopped discharging water from Hoa Binh hydropower dam, the second largest in northern Vietnam, into Red River tributary, the Da River, to reduce water flows. Vietnamese authorities also raised concerns on Wednesday about Chinese hydropower plants releasing water into another Red River tributary, the Lo River, known in China as Panlongjiang, with Beijing saying the two countries were cooperating on flood prevention. Yagi wreaked havoc on many factories and flooded warehouses in coastal export-oriented industrial hubs east of Hanoi, forcing closures, with some only expected to resume full operations after weeks, executives said. The disruptions threaten global supply chains as Vietnam hosts large operations of multinationals that ship mostly to the United States, Europe and other developed nations. Elsewhere, in provinces north of the capital, landslides triggered by heavy floods killed dozens. "My house's first floor is completely under the water," said Nguyen Duc Tam, a 40-year-old resident of Thai Nguyen, a city about 60 km (37 miles) from Hanoi. "Now we have no fresh water and electricity," he said. Another resident, Hoang Hai Luan, 30, said he had not experienced such flooding in more than 20 years in the area. "My belongings and possibly those of many others are completely lost." Among the factories located on the outskirts of the city of about 400,000, is a large facility for Samsung Electronics, which ships about half of its smartphones worldwide from Vietnam.

Extreme rainfall leads to severe flash floods in Morocco, killing 11 and leaving 9 missing - At least 11 people have been confirmed dead, and nine others are still missing following severe flash floods caused by extremely heavy rains that have battered Morocco since Friday, September 6, 2024. Some areas experienced a year’s worth of rainfall in just two days. Moroccan authorities reported on Sunday that 11 people had died and nine others were missing after severe flash floods caused by an “exceptional” climate phenomenon hit the southern regions of the country. According to Rachid Khalfi, the interior ministry spokesman, the deaths were caused by “heavy thunderstorms” that affected “17 prefectures and provinces.” Among the victims, seven died in Tata province, approximately 740 km (460 miles) south of Rabat, and two more were found in Errachidia province, located nearly 500 km (311 miles) east of Marrakesh. According to Khalfi, the amount of rain recorded in these regions since Friday was equivalent to the annual precipitation levels normally observed. Meteorological experts said the rainfall was a result of an “extremely unstable tropical air mass.” Lhoussaine Youabd, a spokesman for the Moroccan General Directorate of Meteorology, explained that this weather system created “unstable and violent clouds,” leading to massive rainfall. He called the event “exceptional.” Tagounite, near the Algerian border, registered 170 mm (6.7 inches) of precipitation on Saturday, September 7. Marrakech recorded 90 mm (3.54 inches), Asni 83 mm (3.27 inches), and Essaouira 80 mm (3.15 inches). In the Ouarzazate region, 47 mm (1.85 inches) of rain fell within three hours. The region of southern Morocco, including cities such as Marrakech, Essaouira, Ouarzazate, and smaller towns like Tagounite and Asni, experiences relatively low rainfall, particularly in September. For example, Marrakech typically receives around 15 – 20 mm (0.6 – 0.8 inches) of rainfall in September, while Essaouira, being closer to the coast, gets about 10 – 15 mm (0.4 – 0.6 inches). Ouarzazate, which is located in a desert region, averages just 5 – 10 mm (0.2 – 0.4 inches) during the same month. Annually, the rainfall varies across these areas, with Marrakech receiving approximately 240 – 280 mm (9.5 – 11 inches), Essaouira about 300 – 350 mm (12 – 14 inches), and Ouarzazate only 50 – 100 mm (2 – 4 inches). Towns like Tagounite and Asni, situated near the Sahara and Atlas Mountains, experience similarly low levels of annual precipitation due to their arid surroundings.

Alau Dam collapse floods 40 percent of Maiduguri, leaves at least 30 dead and 1 million affected, Nigeria - Heavy rainfall in northeastern Nigeria led to the overflow of the Alau Dam in Borno state, causing severe flooding that destroyed thousands of homes, claimed the lives of at least 30 people, and forced the evacuation of more than 400 000 people in the city of Maiduguri and surrounding communities.

• Heavy rains from September 7 – 8, 2024, caused the Alau Dam on the Ngadda River to overflow, leading to significant flooding in Maiduguri, Borno State, and surrounding communities on September 10.
• Thousands of homes were destroyed, including critical infrastructure like hospitals and bridges. At least 30 people died, and over 414 000 residents were forced to evacuate, with around 1 million people feared to be affected.
• Since the rainy season began in April, at least 229 people have died across Nigeria, with over 107 600 hectares (265 000 acres) of land damaged.

Heavy rainfall falling over northeastern Nigeria over the weekend, September 7 – 8, 2024, caused widespread flooding and led to the overflow of the Alau Dam on the Ngadda River, located approximately 15 km (9.3 miles) southwest of Maiduguri, the capital of Borno state with a population of about 791 200, causing significant flooding in the city and surrounding communities on September 10.The flood swept away thousands of homes and destroyed multiple structures, including a hospital and a zoo along with bridges.At least 30 people were killed and 414 000 forced to evacuate, according to official reports on September 11, while about 1 million people are feared to be affected.“The flood has taken over around 40 percent of the entire city. People have been forced out of their homes and are scattered everywhere,” National Emergency Management Agency (NEMA) Zubaida Umar said.According to NEMA, more than 23 000 households, and upwards of 150 000 people, were hit by the subsequent rapid rise of waters.Borno State governor Babagana Umara Zulum said the authorities would need to rebuild and strengthen the dam.Borno State Commissioner for Information and Internal Security, Usman Tar, said that the Alau Dam overflow is the worst the state has seen in 30 years, prompting the state government to close all schools for two weeks.

Large earth crack swallows cattle in Hermosillo municipality, Sonora, Mexico - A large earth crack opened in Ejido J. Cruz Gálvez, located in the Hermosillo municipality of Sonora, Mexico, on September 6, 2024, swallowing four cows. The crack is reported to be approximately 3 km (1.8 miles) long and 1.5 m (5 feet) wide, with a depth of 4 m (13 feet) in some sections. According to the rancher who recorded a video of the crack, it swallowed four cows. Local authorities have not yet issued any statements regarding the matter. The cause of the crack remains unclear. Two possible explanations include water seepage after rainfall and overexploitation of a nearby aquifer. An ejido is a unique form of land tenure in Mexico, where the government grants communal land to a group of people, typically for agricultural purposes. This land is collectively owned and used by members of the community, known as ejidatarios, who have the right to farm and use the land but do not own it. In 2014, the same phenomenon occurred in the state capital. Specialists attributed the cracks to water seepage after the rains.

Europe braces for extreme rainfall and flooding as heat dome collapses - As a prolonged heat dome collapses, signaling the end of summer, Europe is set to experience a dramatic shift in weather. Severe storms, heavy to extreme rainfall, and even early snowfalls are forecast for parts of the Mediterranean and Alpine regions in the coming days.

• Meteorological models, such as the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), predict substantial rainfall over the next 10 days, particularly along the Dynaric mountain range and the Alpine region. Some areas could see 200 – 400 mm (7.9 – 15.7 inches) of rainfall, with local anomalies likely to increase these amounts even further.
• The heavy rainfall could lead to widespread flooding across parts of northern Italy, Austria, Slovenia, and Croatia. The second system, expected to arrive late next week, may bring even more rainfall than the first, as the warm Mediterranean waters remain a key source of moisture.
• Residents of affected areas, particularly in northern Italy, Slovenia, Austria, and parts of the Balkans, should remain vigilant as these weather systems unfold.

According to a report by Marco Korosec published by Severe Weather Europe on September 7, 2024, the prolonged heat dome that dominated much of Europe for an extended period has collapsed, signaling the start of autumn across the region. A shift in the weather pattern is underway, with a more dynamic system bringing the potential for extreme weather events in the coming days and weeks. Meteorological conditions are evolving rapidly, and Europe is now facing a combination of subtropical air mass advection, warm Mediterranean waters, and favorable frontal systems that are likely to result in significant rainfall, severe storms, and flooding, particularly in the Alpine region. The Mediterranean Sea is currently experiencing a marine heatwave, with sea temperatures up to 4 – 6 °C (7.2 – 10.8 °F) warmer than average in regions such as the Ligurian, Tyrrhenian, Adriatic, Ionian, and Aegean Seas. These elevated water temperatures are adding more moisture to the atmosphere, which can enhance rainfall totals and lead to more extreme weather events. This marine heatwave, combined with ongoing weather systems, will continue to play a critical role in forming severe storms and flooding across the Mediterranean and Alpine regions through mid-September. The elevated sea surface temperatures will provide the necessary energy for the atmosphere to produce intense rainfall, particularly along the coastal regions of Italy, Spain, and the western Balkans. A significant weather front is expected to cross the northern Mediterranean and the Alps from Sunday night, September 8, into Monday, September 9, with the potential for severe thunderstorms. A combination of high wind shear and strong atmospheric instability increases the likelihood of intense storms. Early Monday could see an increased risk of flooding, particularly in northern Italy, Slovenia, and Austria, where heavy rainfall is expected to be concentrated. By mid-week, on Wednesday, September 11, a large upper trough is predicted to develop over Europe, bringing the first significant cold air to central Europe and the Mediterranean. This air mass shift could lead to additional severe weather, including flash floods and possibly snow in the higher elevations of the Alps. The region should brace for more active and potentially damaging weather as autumn progresses.

Indonesia conducts weather modification to prevent rain during National Sports Week opening - The Indonesian Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysics Agency (BMKG) began implementing a weather modification operation in the provinces of Aceh and North Sumatra on September 8, 2024. The operation implemented salt seeding to prevent rainfall during the opening ceremony of the National Sports Week (PON) scheduled for September 9. It began in the provinces of Aceh and North Sumatra, with PON scheduled to run from September 9 to 20. As part of the initiative, four tons of salt were dispersed over the coastal waters of Aceh Besar. Sorry, the video player failed to load.(Error Code: 101102) The operation will continue until September 10, in collaboration with the Aceh Regional Disaster Management Agency (BPBD) and an aviation company. Nasrol Aidil, the head of BMKG Aceh, stated that the weather modification is a precautionary measure to avoid disruptions caused by rain during the opening ceremony. In addition to ensuring favorable conditions for PON, the operation also aims to reduce the risk of hydrometeorological disasters during the region’s transition to the rainy season, expected between September and October. PON is Indonesia’s largest multi-sport event, bringing together athletes from all provinces to compete at a national level. Beyond sports, PON plays a vital role in promoting national unity, developing athletic talent, and spurring regional infrastructure growth in host provinces. It also garners widespread media attention, making it a significant event in Indonesia’s sporting and cultural landscape.

Thousands evacuate as wildfires rage outside Los Angeles and Reno, Nevada --As a raging wildfire continues to spread east of Los Angeles, driven by days of triple-digit temperatures, a teacher in an evacuation zone is planning to keep instructing online at his home in a Southern California mountain town. “If we’re seeing flames and the air gets bad, we’re probably going to head down,” he said. Southern California mountain community residents like Richardson are mulling whether to stay and protect their homes or leave. Cal Fire spokesperson Rick Carhart said the fire led at least 6,000 people to evacuate.“We’re dealing with triple-digit temperatures and hard-to-reach steep areas where there has not been fire in decades, or in recorded history, so all that vegetation has led to significant fuel loads,” Carhart said.Mara Rodriguez, a spokesperson with the San Bernardino County Sheriff’s Department, which issues evacuation orders, said nearly 5,000 homes fell under the existing orders and nearly 17,000 more were under evacuation warnings.The blaze threatened thousands of home and commercial structures as it burned along the edge of the San Bernardino National Forest, about 65 miles (105 kilometers) east of Los Angeles. As of Monday evening, the blaze had charred about 37 square miles (96 square kilometers) of grass and brush and blanketed the area with a thick cloud of dark smoke. It was 5% contained.Meanwhile, firefighters were using bulldozers, helicopters and airplanes Monday to control another rapidly spreading blaze that broke out near a remote-controlled airplane airport in Orange County southeast of Los Angeles. The fire spread to about 3 square miles (7.8 square kilometers) in only a few hours.In Northern California, a fire measuring less than a square mile (2.6 square kilometers) started Sunday and burned at least 30 homes and commercial buildings and destroyed 40 to 50 vehicles in Clearlake City, 110 miles (117 kilometers) north of San Francisco, officials said. Roughly 4,000 people were forced to evacuate by the Boyles Fire, which was about 40% contained Monday afternoon.The fires are among the most dangerous of the many burning in various parts of California.About 20 miles (32.2 kilometers) outside Reno, Nevada, the uncontained Davis Fire grew to about 10 square miles (26 square kilometers) after igniting Sunday afternoon. It originated in the Davis Creek Regional Park in the Washoe Valley and was burning in heavy timber and brush, firefighters said.An emergency declaration issued for Washoe County by Gov. Joe Lombardo on Sunday noted that about 20,000 people were evacuated from neighborhoods, businesses, parks and campgrounds. Parts of south Reno remained under the evacuation notice on Monday, firefighters said, and some homes, businesses and traffic signals in the area were without power.The Southern California blaze burned so hot Saturday that it created its own thunderstorm-like weather systems of pyroculumus clouds, which can create more challenging conditions such as gusty winds and lightning strikes, according to the National Weather Service.The Reno fire is roughly 480 miles (770 kilometers) to the northeast of the blaze in the San Bernardino National Forest, where firefighters worked in steep terrain in temperatures above 100 degrees (38 Celsius), limiting their ability to control the blaze, officials said. State firefighters said three firefighters had been injured.Evacuations were ordered Saturday evening for Running Springs, Arrowbear Lake, areas east of Highway 330 and other regions. The affected area is near small mountain towns in the San Bernardino National Forest where Southern California residents ski in the winter and mountain bike in the summer. Running Springs is on the route to the popular ski resort town of Big Bear.Redlands Unified School District cancelled Monday classes for roughly 20,000 students, and Gov. Gavin Newsom proclaimed a state of emergency for San Bernardino County.

Wildfires burn out of control in Southern California and more evacuations ordered (AP) — Apocalyptic-looking plumes of smoke filled skies east of Los Angeles on Tuesday as firefighters battled three major wildfires that erupted amid a blistering heat wave and threatened tens of thousands of homes and other structures. Evacuation orders were expanded Tuesday night as the fires grew and included parts of the popular ski town of Big Bear and the entire community of Wrightwood, with about 4,500 residents. Authorities implored people to leave their homes. “There is no property that is worth risking your life for,” Los Angeles County Sheriff Robert Luna said. In recent years wildfires have regularly burned in and around Wrightwood, a picturesque mountain town 60 miles (97 kilometers) east of Los Angeles known for its 1930s cabins. Authorities expressed frustration in 2016 when only half the residents heeded orders to leave.. In neighboring Orange County, firefighters used bulldozers, helicopters and planes to control a rapidly spreading blaze called the Airport Fire that started Monday and spread to about 3 square miles (8 square kilometers) in only a few hours. The blaze was ignited by a spark from heavy equipment being used by public workers, officials said. By Tuesday night, it had charred more than 30 square miles (78 square kilometers) and was heading over mountainous terrain into neighboring Riverside County with no containment, said Orange County Fire Authority Capt. Steve Concialdi. It burned some communications towers on top of a peak, though so far officials said they did not have reports of the damage disrupting police or fire communication signals in the area. Concialdi said the fire was burning away from homes in Orange County, but there are 36 recreational cabins in the area. He said authorities don’t yet know if the cabins were damaged or destroyed by the blaze. Two firefighters who suffered heat-related injuries and a resident who suffered from smoke inhalation were treated at a hospital and released. The flames died down last night but flared up again in the morning. “You can see fire coming over the ridge now,” . “It’s getting a little scarier now.” . Meanwhile, in the San Bernardino National Forest, some 65,600 homes and buildings were under threat by the Line Fire, including those under mandatory evacuations and those under evacuation warnings, nearly double the number from the previous day. Residents along the southern edge of Big Bear Lake were told to leave the area Tuesday night, according to the San Bernardino County Sheriff’s Department. It’s unclear how many people were affected in the area, which is a popular destination for anglers, bikers and hikers. The blaze had charred more than 51 square miles (132 square kilometers) of grass and brush and blanketed the area with a thick cloud of dark smoke . The acrid air prompted several districts in the area to close schools through the end of the week because of safety concerns. Three firefighters have been injured since the blaze was reported Thursday, state fire managers said. In Northern California, a fire measuring less than a square mile (2.6 square kilometers) that started Sunday burned at least 30 homes and commercial buildings and destroyed 40 to 50 vehicles in Clearlake City, 110 miles (117 kilometers) north of San Francisco, officials said. Roughly 4,000 people were forced to evacuate by the so-called Boyles Fire, which was about 50% contained Tuesday night. Other major fires were burning across the West, including in Idaho, Oregon and Nevada, where about 20,000 people had to flee a blaze outside Reno. The uncontained Davis Fire burned at least one home and threatened dozens more. It originated in the Davis Creek Regional Park in the Washoe Valley and was spreading through heavy timber and brush, firefighters said. An emergency declaration issued for Washoe County by Nevada Gov. Joe Lombardo on Sunday said about 20,000 people were evacuated from neighborhoods, businesses, parks and campgrounds. More than 600 firefighters in the area held their own Tuesday but were bracing for worsening weather conditions Wednesday, which could see dangerously strong winds and dry conditions. The National Weather Service in Reno said it was the first time in five years and only the sixth time in history that they’ve labeled the threat as a “particularly dangerous situation.” All off-duty firefighters in the Reno area have been ordered back to work Wednesday. “I’ve never done that in the 12 years I’ve been chief,” Truckee Meadows Fire Chief Charles Moore said Tuesday.

California’s Airport Fire explodes in size, evacuations underway - -- The Airport Fire, which broke out east of Irvine on Monday, September 9, 2024, has rapidly grown to more than 3 500 ha (8 500 acres) on Tuesday and to 19 028 ha (47 029 acres) by Wednesday — now reaching Riverside County. Authorities have issued evacuation orders and warnings for several communities as firefighting efforts continue amid severe heatwave conditions. The fire spread rapidly, reaching nearly 2 225 ha (5 500 acres) within the first eight hours, moving eastward toward Riverside County. As of Wednesday, 7 people have been injured — 2 civilians and 5 firefighters. The fire is currently threatening 10 500 structures. The Airport Fire erupted in the hills of Orange County, Southern California, on Monday, rapidly growing to more than 2 023 ha (5 000 acres) within just a few hours. The fire began around 13:30 local time, roughly 24 km (15 miles) east of Irvine, near an area known for remote-controlled model airplanes. The fire, which remains uncontrolled, has prompted evacuation orders for several communities. Parts of Trabuco Canyon, located in the foothills of the Santa Ana Mountains, were ordered to evacuate, and surrounding neighborhoods were issued evacuation warnings. The fire occurred during a severe heatwave in Southern California, with temperatures reaching over 38 °C (100 °F) in many areas. According to Cal Fire, the Airport Fire grew even larger overnight, swelling to over 3 439 ha (8 500 acres). Orange County Fire Authority Deputy Chief TJ McGovern reported that the fire was believed to have been unintentionally started by a public works crew, although Cal Fire stated that the cause is still unclear and under investigation. “The cause of the fire was a spark from heavy equipment,” said McGovern. He added that the crew was placing boulders to replace barriers restricting access to vegetation when they noticed smoke coming from the loader’s basket. The fire spread rapidly, reaching nearly 2 225 ha (5 500 acres) within the first eight hours, moving eastward toward Riverside County. By Tuesday morning, it remained at 0 % containment. Authorities noted that containment represents the portion of the fire’s perimeter that firefighters believe will no longer spread, either due to natural barriers or firefighting efforts. Evacuation orders were first issued around 15:00 local time on Monday, for residents living along Meander Lane and in the Robinson Ranch community. O’Neill Regional Park’s campgrounds were also closed. Additionally, Cal Fire issued evacuation warnings for areas in Riverside County, including those east of the Orange County line, west of the 15 Freeway, south of Bedford Motor Way, and north of Ortega Highway. Several schools were closed on Tuesday, due to the fire, including all schools in the Lake Elsinore Unified School District. The Corona Norco Unified School District also closed Wilson, Temescal Valley, and Todd elementary schools, while the Saddleback Valley Unified School District closed Robinson and Trabuco elementary schools. Santa Margarita Catholic High School, located above the canyon where the fire started, did not hold classes on Tuesday either. The school was not under immediate threat, but officials stated, “We are taking this precaution for the safety and well-being of our community,” citing nearby evacuation notices. Road closures were also reported in several areas of Orange County. A shelter was set up at the Rancho Santa Margarita Bell Tour Regional Community Center, located at 22232 El Paseo, for evacuated residents. Animal shelters were also available for those needing to evacuate their pets, with one designated for large animals at the Orange County Fairgrounds in Costa Mesa and another at a Ralphs parking lot at 31481 Santa Margarita Parkway. As of Tuesday, three people have been injured — 2 firefights who sustained heat-related injuries and one civilian injured due to smoke inhalation. Updates 06:13 UTC, September 11: According to the latest report by Cal Fire, the Airport Fire has rapidly expanded, growing from 8 510 ha (21 031 acres) to 19 028 ha (47 029 acres), now reaching Riverside County. The fire has injured two civilians and five firefighters and is currently threatening 10 500 structures. Currently, 126 engines, 629 firefighting personnel, eight water tenders, seven helicopters, seven hand crews, and six bulldozers have been assigned to control the blaze. Several areas in Riverside County are under evacuation orders or warnings. Two evacuation sites and one animal shelter have been established in the county.

Wildfires erupt across Southern California amid sweltering heat wave -- Over the past week, three large fires have erupted across Southern California in Riverside, San Bernardino and Orange counties, prompting local and state authorities to issue a state of emergency as they threaten lives, homes and air quality. The smoke is so thick that satellite views of the entire area show one large plume.The fires occurred at the same time that a massive triple-digit heat wave affected the region, causing an undercounted number of deaths, according to Dr. David Eisenman, a professor at UCLA. Without a doubt, a record hot and dry summer, following a wet winter, set the stage for fires to expand rapidly.The Airport Fire, bordering Orange and Riverside counties, was reportedly caused by public works equipment that caught fire in the area, a fact that points to the dangerous degree of obsolescence in infrastructure.Some 1,400 homes have been evacuated, some of which were destroyed, and 1,000 firefighters were at the scene while anticipated thunderstorms could ignite new flames at any moment. At least 10 firefighters reported injuries, while one civilian suffered a medical emergency and another civilian reported unspecified burns.The fire started Monday, September 9, in the afternoon and ballooned rapidly to 19,000 acres by Tuesday night. It currently encompasses more than 23,000 acres with 5 percent of the fire being contained as of this writing.The severity of the blaze required the mandatory evacuation of the Robinson Ranch community in Rancho Santa Margarita as well as voluntary evacuation warnings for at least eight additional locations directly under threat.The Line Fire in San Bernardino County started Thursday, September 5 and has spread to more than 37,000 acres, prompting evacuation orders for 9,200 homes, with only 18 percent of the fire contained as of Thursday morning. The size of the fire required the deployment of more than 3,000 firefighters, a number that is still utterly inadequate for a fire of that proportion. At least 100 Amazon workers from the KSBD airhub in San Bernardino, many wearing protective masks, angrily confronted management on Wednesday complaining about the smoke in and around the warehouse. The company issued a back-to-work order after a two-day closure, while evacuations are taking place in adjacent areas and workers’ lives are being placed in danger by the corporation.The Bridge Fire, the largest of the three so far, started on Tuesday, September 10 when it covered only 4,000 acres but then exploded to over 34,000 acres within a matter of hours.The Bridge Fire currently stands at over 50,000 acres with 0 percent of it being contained as of this writing. Some 5,500 homes have been evacuated and dozens destroyed. Evacuation orders were given selectively and at the last minute, exposing many residents to the risk of being injured or killed in their homes. In the affected city of Wrightwood, California, the speed of the fires and the lack of advance warnings caught residents unprepared where many had to leave their property and pets behind.“I’ve been a Wrightwood resident for 30 years,” John Haskell told KCAL News. “I’ve been through a lot of fires and I’ve never seen it move that fast…It reminds me of what we saw at Paradise [in 2018].” The severity of the situation was underscored by Wrightwood resident Leah Potter: “Within minutes it went from blue skies to just dark.” “You couldn’t even breathe,” Potter added. “We couldn’t even see anything, the smoke was hurting our lungs and we decided to leave on our own and then we got an alert as we’re packing up and the roads were bumper to bumper and it was utter chaos.”Potter complained, “There were no evacuation warnings, there were no police coming up or down the streets, we just had to run for our lives. It was basically up to us because there was no direction and no evacuation warning until we were already packed up and bumper to bumper gridlocked when we got the evacuation notice … and I had to leave my chickens.” These scenes recall the horrors of the 2018 Camp Fire in Paradise, California and the blaze which overtook Lahaina on the island of Maui in Hawaii, last year where the failure of the state to deliver prompt evacuation orders led to many preventable deaths. While local and state firefighters focus on the three massive fires in Southern California, there are at least 18 smaller fires burning around the same area which have not been fully contained.

Line Fire scorches over 14 000 ha (34 000 acres), thousands evacuated in San Bernardino County, California, U.S. - (2 time lapse videos) The Line Fire in California has burned more than 14 000 ha (34 000 acres) of land in San Bernardino County since it began on September 5, 2024, forcing thousands of residents to evacuate and threatening over 65 000 structures. With containment at just 14%, erratic winds and dry conditions continue to hinder firefighting efforts. Line Fire is among three major fires currently burning in California. Collectively, they burned more than 40 500 ha (100 000 acres) by Wednesday morning. The fire has forced thousands of San Bernardino County residents to evacuate and threatened 65 000 buildings. The Line Fire continues to burn through California’s San Bernardino County, consuming tens of thousands of acres since its ignition on September 5. The fire started near Base Line and Aplin streets in Highland around 18:00, quickly spreading through hundreds of acres before surpassing 1 215 ha (3 000 acres) by the night of September 6. As of Wednesday morning, September 11, the wildfire had scorched 14 027 ha (34 659 acres), with containment at just 14%, according to Cal Fire. Dry, hot conditions and erratic winds have complicated firefighting efforts, and officials are monitoring the potential spread toward Big Bear Valley. “The fire is moving northeast and we’re concerned for the citizens of Big Bear,” said San Bernardino County Fire Chief Dan Munsey, noting that thunderstorms contributed to the fire’s unpredictable movement. Thousands of residents have been evacuated. Communities including Running Springs, Arrowbear Lake, and Forest Falls are currently under evacuation orders. Residents were urged to prepare for possible evacuation as warnings remain in place for areas like Big Bear and Lake Arrowhead.One of the two main power supply lines to Big Bear Valley, including potential evacuation zones, was shut off for public safety. So far, no casualties or civilian injuries have been reported due to the fire, but three firefighters were injured during suppression efforts. Officials have arrested a 34-year-old man from Norco in connection with the fire’s ignition, charging him with alleged arson. Evacuation centers have been set up in Victorville and Highland, with an additional animal evacuation shelter established at the Devore Animal Shelter. Thousands of structures remain threatened by the blaze, with Cal Fire reporting that 65 600 structures, including homes and commercial buildings, are under threat. A damage assessment team is currently working in the region to check on any structures that may have been damaged. Currently, 386 engines, 28 water tenders, 22 helicopters, 63 bulldozers, 65 hand crews, and 3 179 personnel are engaged in firefighting efforts. The wildfire’s rapid growth has been fueled by extreme weather conditions. According to weather officials, the smoke from the fire created clouds similar to those accompanying thunderstorms, prompting reports of over 1 100 lightning strikes in the area.The fire-created storm system increased winds in the immediate area, fanning the flames as they continued to spread and creating challenges for firefighters. Cal Fire said on September 8 that “thunderstorm outflow winds” were causing “very erratic behavior.”

A “Particularly Dangerous Situation” and “exceptionally rare event” says NWS as the Davis Fire burns over 2 000 ha (5 600 acres) in Nevada, U.S. - The WatchersThe Davis Fire burns through over 2 285 ha (5 600 acres ) near Reno, Nevada, as firefighters attempt to control the blaze. A Red Flag Warning has been issued due to strong winds, and evacuation orders remain in place for several communities. A particularly dangerous situation and exceptionally rare event says NWS as the Davis Fire burns over 2 000 ha (5 600 acres) in Nevada, U.S. september 2024 The fire has impacted at least 14 structures as it burns through timber and bush with medium to long-range spotting. Reno office of the National Weather Service (NWS) said this will be a Particularly Dangerous Situation (PDS) Red Flag Warning for September 11. This is only the sixth PDS Red Flag Warning issued in NWS Reno history, making it an ‘exceptionally rare event.’ Evacuation orders have been issued for St. James Village, Galena, and areas south of Mount Rose Highway. An evacuation center has been set up at the Washoe County Senior Center at 1155 E. 9th Street in Reno. The Davis Fire broke out at Davis Creek Regional Park in the Washoe Valley, south of Reno, Nevada, at around 14:30 local time (LT) on September 7. The fire is currently 31% contained with an acreage of approximately 2 285 ha (5 646 acres ). The cause of the fire remains unknown. The fire has impacted at least 14 structures as it burns through timber and bush with medium to long-range spotting. Damage assessments will be done when conditions are favorable in the affected regions. 12 helicopters, 10 bulldozers, 58 engines, 15 crews, and 620 firefighting personnel have been assigned to suppress the fire. West-to-southwest winds of 24 – 48 km/h (15 – 30 mph), gusting to 64 km/h (40 mph), are forecast for Wednesday. Temperatures will range from 33 °C (92 °F) at the lower elevations to 23 °C (74 °F) at the higher elevations, fire officials said. A Red Flag Warning is in effect from 11:00 LT on September 10 to 20:00 LT on September 12 due to strong winds expected ahead of a cold front. Smoke will continue to rise in the Reno area due to increased fire activity caused by high winds. According to the Reno office of the National Weather Service (NWS), this will be a Particularly Dangerous Situation (PDS) Red Flag Warning for September 11. This is only the sixth PDS Red Flag Warning issued in NWS Reno history, making it an ‘exceptionally rare event,” said the NWS. “Prepare now for rapid fire growth.” The last PDS RFW was issued on September 15 – 16, 2019.

Córdoba wildfires force intense firefighting efforts as new threats emerge in La Calera, Argentina - Three wildfires strike La Calera in Cordoba province, Argentina, hundreds of firefighters battle blazes september 2024 Wildfires that erupted on September 5, 2024, continue to spread across Argentina’s Cordoba Province, with emergency teams deployed in multiple regions. As of September 6, three major wildfire outbreaks were being battled by over 200 firefighters, with 50 personnel still engaged in containment efforts. The first major outbreak is located on the Tiro Federal property in La Calera. The fire originated near Avenida Don Bosco and has been moving in a northwesterly direction, now threatening to reach La Calera. The fire, with a front approximately 1 000 m (3 280 feet) wide, is being closely monitored as it advances toward the nearby road. Thick columns of black smoke, a result of burning tires in a warehouse, are visible in the area, though officials state that there is no immediate risk to homes or individuals at this time. As a precautionary measure, those present at Tiro Federal have been evacuated, and traffic on Route E-55 has been cut off. Firefighters are working to protect a residential neighborhood in La Calera that could be impacted if the fire continues to spread. Eight families were evacuated from the La Cuesta neighborhood due to the presence of smoke, but the fire didn’t enter the neighborhood and their homes were safe from danger. In a separate incident, emergency teams are responding to a wildfire in the Traslasierra region. The fire is developing between the towns of Mina Clavero and Salsacate, specifically near Ambul. Firefighters have been deployed to contain the spread and safeguard nearby communities. Additionally, a fire reactivated in the Villa del Dique area of the Calamuchita department on the morning of September 6. Firefighters are working to prevent further escalation. Meanwhile, another fire in La Mezquita, located on the Third Army Corps property, has been contained. As of September 6, the smoke in the area has cleared, allowing the Córdoba-Carlos Paz highway to reopen for traffic. However, firefighters remain on-site to continue cooling the perimeter. Nearly 200 personnel were involved in containing the flames, with water-dropping planes assisting throughout the day. Currently, 50 firefighting personnel are still working in the region.t

Antarctic ozone hole is making its annual comeback - The Antarctic ozone hole is growing anew. This annual phenomenon, set to peak in September and October, causes dangerous UV rays to penetrate the Earth’s atmosphere deeper. As the Southern Hemisphere enters spring, the ozone hole over Antarctica has started to form, leading to a significant depletion of ozone in the stratosphere. Monitoring has revealed that the ozone hole is expanding, with a peak size expected by mid-October. This reduction in ozone allows more harmful UV radiation to reach the Earth’s surface. The decline in stratospheric temperatures over Antarctica facilitates the formation of polar stratospheric clouds, which play a critical role in ozone depletion. These clouds enable chemical reactions between reactive chlorine and bromine, compounds that degrade ozone molecules. As sunlight returns to the Antarctic after the long winter, it triggers these chemical processes, worsening the depletion of ozone. The ozone hole typically starts forming in August and continues to grow until it reaches its maximum size in September or October. Scientists monitor the hole from August to December, as ozone levels generally begin to recover by the end of the year.

Record-high sulfur dioxide emissions force evacuations around Kanlaon volcano, Philippines - The WatchersIncreased activity and very high sulfur dioxide (SO2) emissions at Kanlaon volcano in the Philippines forced approximately 300 residents living within 4 km (2.5 miles) of the volcano to evacuate on Tuesday, September 10, 2024.

• Kanlaon volcano’s SO₂ emissions spiked to 9 985 tonnes/day, leading to the evacuation of 300 residents within 4 km (2.5 miles) on September 10.
• SO₂ exposure can cause respiratory issues, especially for vulnerable groups. Residents are advised to stay indoors and wear protective masks.
• Kanlaon remains at Alert Level 2, with potential for increased volcanic activity.
• Residents are strongly advised to avoid the 4 km (2.5 miles) Permanent Danger Zone and to take precautions against volcanic hazards such as pyroclastic flows, ash fall, and lahars during heavy rainfall.

According to the Canlaon City government, the evacuees have taken shelter in schools and communities away from the volcano. Additionally, classes and some tourist spots in the city have been suspended. Volcanic sulfur dioxide (SO2) gas emissions from Kanlaon’s summit crater, based on campaign Flyspec measurements on Tuesday, averaged 9 985 tonnes/day. On the same day, 337 volcanic earthquakes were registered and a voluminous plume reached 1 000 m (3 280 feet), drifting southeast. Additionally, the volcano’s edifice is inflated, indicating potential magma movement. According to PHIVOLCS, this is the highest sulfur dioxide emission from the volcano recorded since instrumental gas monitoring began. Kanlaon has been releasing increased concentrations of volcanic sulfur dioxide this year at an average rate of 1 273 tonnes/day before the June 3, 2024, eruption. However, emissions have since risen significantly, with a current average of 3 468 tonnes/day. Sulfuric odors have been reported in the following areas: Brgy. Ilijan in Bago City; Brgy. Ara-al and Brgy. San Miguel in La Carlota City; and Brgy. Masulog, Brgy. Linothangan, and Brgy. Pula in Canlaon City. Officials warned that prolonged exposure to volcanic sulfur dioxide, especially in communities directly affected by plume accumulation during low wind conditions, can cause irritation of the eyes, throat, and respiratory tract. “People who may be particularly sensitive include those with health conditions such as asthma, lung disease, heart disease, as well as the elderly, pregnant women, and children.” Residents in communities affected by volcanic sulfur dioxide are advised to limit exposure by staying indoors, closing doors and windows, and avoiding outdoor activities. “Protect yourself by wearing an N95 facemask and drinking plenty of water to soothe throat irritation. If you belong to a sensitive group, monitor your health closely and seek medical help or contact your local health unit if serious symptoms occur,” PHIVOLCS advised.

Atlas 5 Centaur Rocket Body breaks up in orbit into a debris cloud of 40 plus objects – The body of the Atlas 5 Centaur rocket that delivered the GOES 17 satellite in 2018 broke up in a highly elliptical orbit at around 05:21 UTC on September 6, 2024, creating a debris cloud of 40+ objects. Slingshot Aerospace, a satellite tracking company based in Colorado, observed the breakup of the Atlas 5 Centaur rocket body at 05:32 UTC on September 6 from an observation site in Chile. They detected a debris cloud of more than 40 objects related to the fragmentation of the rocket, which currently doesn’t appear to pose a threat to any active spacecraft. The rocket body, with NORAD ID: 43227, underwent fragmentation at around 05:21 UTC on September 6. This rocket was used to deliver the GOES 17 satellite into orbit on March 1, 2018. According to Slingshot Aerospace, they were tracking more than 40 objects related to the breakup of the rocket body in the form of a debris cloud. “Following a detailed conjunction assessment – and given the highly elliptical orbit (34 953 km apogee; 7 634 km perigee; 9.4° inclination) – Slingshot has determined that the current debris cloud does not likely pose an immediate threat to any active spacecraft at present,” the company said. “Currently, the closest predicted approach between debris from the Atlas 5 Centaur parent object and known debris is estimated at ~220 km [138 miles].”

Debris produced by DART’s impact on Dimorphos could create Earth’s new meteor shower - A recent study shows that a plume of debris produced by NASA’s Double Asteroid Redirection Test (DART) mission’s impact on Dimorphos in 2022, could reach Mars and Earth within 7 years, creating a new meteor shower. A new study conducted dynamical simulations of over 3 million particles released due to the impact of DART on Dimorphos on September 26, 2022, shows that the impact of ejecta might reach Earth. According to scientists, the debris is small in size and poses no risk to Earth at this time. The particles observed in the study were classified into three size categories: 10 cm (3.9 inches), 0.5 cm (0.2 inches), and 30 μm (0.0012 inches). The main simulation explored ejecta velocities ranging from 1 to 1 000 m/s (3 to 3 281 ft/s), while a secondary simulation focused on faster ejecta with velocities from 1 to 2 km/s (0.6 to 1.2 mps). The study shows that ejecta with launch velocities around 450 m/s (1 476 ft/s) could reach the Mars Hill sphere in 13 years, which is within the observed range. Some ejecta particles launched at 770 m/s (2 526 ft/s) could reach Mars’s vicinity in 7 years. Meanwhile, ejecta with velocities above 1.5 km/s (1 mps) resulted in a higher flux delivery towards Mars and particles could reach Earth’s Hill sphere. The delivery process is slightly sensitive to the initial observed cone range and driven by synodic periods. According to the study, the particles that could impact Mars were predominantly in the northern regions of DART’s impact site meanwhile the smaller particles are more likely to reach Earth. The very largest of these meteoroids would only be the size of a softball. They would be certain to burn up in Earth’s atmosphere, although they might make it through the thinner Martian atmosphere. Scientists estimated more than 900 000 kg (2 million pounds) of rocks and dust were produced due to DART’s impact and they could produce visible meteors by penetrating the Martian atmosphere. This could last periodically for at least the next 100 years. “Once the first particles reach Mars or Earth, they could continue to arrive intermittently and periodically for at least the next 100 years, which is the duration of our calculations,” Eloy Peña Asensio, a researcher for the Deep-space Astrodynamics Research and Technology group at Italy’s Polytechnic University of Milan. “This material could produce visible meteors (commonly called shooting stars) as they penetrate the Martian atmosphere,” Asensio added. “Our results indicate the possibility of ejecta reaching the gravitational field of Mars in 13 years for launch velocities around 450 m/s, while faster ejecta launched at 770 m/s could reach its vicinity in just seven years. Particles moving above 1.5 km/s could reach the Earth-Moon system in a similar timescale,” Asensio said. “We were amazed to discover that it is possible for some centimetre-sized particles to reach the Earth-Moon system and produce a new meteor shower,”

Videos of Asteroid 2024 RW1 breaking up over Luzon, Philippines - The A newly-discovered asteroid, identified as 2024 RW1, entered Earth’s atmosphere over Luzon, Philippines, on September 5, 2024, creating a spectacular green fireball. This marks the ninth asteroid ever detected before impact. Asteroid 2024 RW1 was discovered at 05:43 UTC on September 5 by Jacqueline Fazekas at the Mt. Lemmon Survey in Arizona, part of the NASA-funded Catalina Sky Survey, and entered Earth’s atmosphere overs over Luzon, Philippines, at 16:39 UTC on the same day. Sorry, the video player failed to load.(Error Code: 101102) The object was sufficiently large to create a bright fireball as it raced through the atmosphere at a speed of about 23.7 km/s but not large enough to do any damage. Asteroid 2024 RW1 had an estimated diameter between 1.1 and 2.4 m (3.6 – 7.9 feet), making it the sixth-largest of 9 asteroids ever detected before impacting Earth’s atmosphere. The largest was 2019 MO, which impacted off the south coast of Puerto Rico, in the Caribbean Sea, on June 22, 2019. It was discovered on the same day and had a diameter of approximately 5 m (16.4 feet) and a mass of around 200 tons.

Filament eruption produces Earth-directed CME; S1 - Minor solar radiation storm in progress - Early on Sunday, September 8, 2024 (UTC), a magnetic filament erupted from the Sun’s northwest quadrant (N16W22), releasing an Earth-directed coronal mass ejection (CME). The CME is expected to impact Earth on September 10, potentially triggering a G2 – Moderate geomagnetic storm. Concurrently, heightened activity near the Sun’s west limb has caused a sharp increase in proton levels, resulting in an S1 – Minor solar radiation storm at 08:50 UTC today. The CME was first observed in ESA/NASA LASCO C2 coronagraph imagery at approximately 01:36 UTC. Analysis and modeling of the CME suggests arrival to Earth by mid to late Tuesday, September 10. G2 – Moderate geomagnetic storming is likely on September 10. Elevated activity is likely to persist into September 11, keeping G1 – Minor geomagnetic storm conditions likely throughout the first half of the day. A G2 – Moderate geomagnetic storm can have several significant effects, particularly in high-latitude regions. Power systems in these areas may experience voltage alarms, and prolonged storms can lead to transformer damage. Spacecraft operations might require ground control to take corrective actions regarding orientation, and changes in atmospheric drag can impact orbit predictions. High-frequency (HF) radio propagation may also be disrupted at higher latitudes, potentially leading to communication issues. Additionally, auroras, typically visible in regions around 55° geomagnetic latitude, have been observed as far south as New York and Idaho during such storms. Meanwhile, following recent activity near the Sun’s west limb, proton levels began increasing at 06:00 UTC on September 9, reaching the S1 – Minor solar radiation storm threshold by 08:50 UTC. An S1 – Minor solar radiation storm has limited effects and poses no risks to biological systems or satellite operations. The only notable impact is a minor disruption to high-frequency (HF) radio communications in polar regions. These storms are relatively common, occurring about 50 times per solar cycle, but their effects are minimal. An S2 – Moderate solar radiation storm can pose certain risks, particularly for biological systems and satellite operations.

Impulsive X1.3 solar flare erupts from unnumbered region on the Sun’s SE limb - 2 videos - A major solar flare measuring X1.3 erupted from an unnumbered active region on the Sun’s SE limb at 09:43 UTC on Thursday, September 12, 2024. The event started at 09:31 and ended at 09:51 UTC. A coronal mass ejection (CME) was most likely produced, but the source region is not in a position that favors Earth-directed CMEs. Solar wind parameters in 24 hours to 12:30 UTC today, indicated the arrival of two possible CMEs — the first produced on September 8 and the second on September 10. A G2 – Moderate geomagnetic storm is currently in progress. An impulsive solar flare measuring X1.3 erupted from an unnumbered active region on the SE limb of the Sun at 09:43 UTC on September 12. Associated with this event were multiple discrete radio bursts and a 10cm Radio Burst (tenflare) lasting 2 minutes with a peak flux of 240 sfu. A 10cm radio burst indicates that the electromagnetic burst associated with a solar flare at the 10cm wavelength was double or greater than the initial 10cm radio background. This can be indicative of significant radio noise in association with a solar flare. This noise is generally short-lived but can cause interference for sensitive receivers including radar, GPS, and satellite communications. Radio frequencies were forecast to be most degraded over Africa and parts of Europe and Asia at the time of the flare. “Flares of this magnitude in and around solar maximum are generally not common, although not necessarily unusual,” SWPC forecasters said. A coronal mass ejection (CME) was most likely produced by this event, but the region is still not in a location that favors Earth-directed CMEs. This will change in the week ahead.

CME impacts Earth, sparking G3 - Strong geomagnetic storm and widespread red aurora - The Coronal mass ejection (CME) produced by a filament eruption early Sunday, September 8, 2024, hit Earth at around 03:50 UTC on September 12. The impact sparked G3 – Strong geomagnetic storming and widespread red aurora. G1 – Minor geomagnetic storm threshold was reached at 07:55 UTC followed by G2 – Moderate at 11:28 UTC and G3 – Strong at 14:43 UTC. “Infrastructure operators have been notified to mitigate any possible impacts,” SWPC said. G3 – Strong geomagnetic storm primarily impacts areas poleward of 50 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude. Power systems in these regions may experience voltage irregularities, potentially causing false alarms in some protection devices due to induced currents. Spacecraft may face surface charging, increased drag on low Earth orbit satellites, and orientation challenges. Satellite navigation (GPS) systems can be intermittently affected, leading to loss of lock and increased range errors. High-frequency (HF) radio communications may also become unreliable, while auroras may be visible as far south as Pennsylvania, Iowa, and Oregon. Dr. Tony Phillips of SpaceWeather.com is reporting widespread red aurora deep inside the United States as a result of this storm.

Methane emissions are rising faster than ever, research shows - The world has not hit the brakes on methane emissions, a powerful driver of climate change. More than 150 nations have pledged to slash by 30% this decade under a global methane pledge, but new research shows global methane emissions over the past five years have risen faster than ever. The trend "cannot continue if we are to maintain a habitable climate," the researchers write in a Sept. 10 perspective article in Environmental Research Letters published alongside data in Earth System Science Data. Both papers are the work of the Global Carbon Project, an initiative chaired by Stanford University scientist Rob Jackson that tracks greenhouse gas emissions worldwide.Atmospheric concentrations of methane are now more than 2.6 times higher than in pre-industrial times—the highest they've been in at least 800,000 years. Methane emission rates continue to rise along the most extreme trajectory used in emission scenarios by the world's leading climate scientists.The current path leads to global warming above 3 degrees Celsius or 5 degrees Fahrenheit by the end of this century. "Right now, the goals of the Global Methane Pledge seem as distant as a desert oasis," said Jackson. "We all hope they aren't a mirage."Methane is a short-lived but highly potent greenhouse gas that comes from natural sources like wetlands and human or "anthropogenic" sources such as agriculture, fossil fuels, and landfills. During the first 20 years after release, methane heats the atmosphere nearly 90 times faster than carbon dioxide, making it a key target for limiting global warming in the near term. Despite growing policy focus on methane, however, total annual methane emissions have increased by 61 million tons or 20% over the past two decades, according to the new estimates. Increases are being driven primarily by growth of emissions from coal mining, oil and gas production and use, cattle and sheep ranching, and decomposing food and organic waste in landfills. "Only the European Union and possibly Australia appear to have decreased methane emissions from human activities over the past two decades," said Marielle Saunois of the Université Paris-Saclay in France and lead author of the Earth System Science Data paper. "The largest regional increases have come from China and southeast Asia."In 2020, the most recent year for which complete data are available, nearly 400 million tons or 65% of global methane emissions came directly from human activities, with agriculture and waste contributing about two tons of methane for every ton from the fossil fuel industry, according to the fossil fuel industry. According to the researchers, human-caused emissions continued to increase through at least 2023.Our atmosphere accumulated nearly 42 million tons of methane in 2020—twice the amount added on average each year during the 2010s, and more than six times the increase seen during the first decade of the 2000s. Cows are burping much more than they ever did.Pandemic lockdowns in 2020 reduced transport-related emissions of nitrogen oxides (NO_x), which typically worsen local air quality but prevent some methane from accumulating in the atmosphere. The temporary decline in NO_xpollution accounts for about half of the increase in atmospheric methane concentrations that year—illustrating the complex entanglements of air quality and climate change."We're still trying to understand the full effects of COVID lockdowns on the global methane budget," said Jackson. "COVID changed nearly everything—from fossil fuel use to emissions of other gases that alter the lifetime of methane in the atmosphere."The Global Carbon Project scientists have made an important change in their latest accounting of global methane sources and "sinks," which include forests and soils that remove and store methane from the atmosphere.In previous assessments, they categorized all methane from wetlands, lakes, ponds, and rivers as natural. But the new methane budget makes a first attempt to estimate the growing amount of emissions from these types of sources that result from human influences and activities.For instance, reservoirs built by people lead to an estimated 30 million tons of methane emitted per year, because newly submerged organic matter releases methane as it decomposes."Emissions from reservoirs behind dams are as much a direct human source as methane emissions from a cow or an oil and gas field," said Jackson, who published a new book about methane and climate solutions titled Into the Clear Blue Sky: The Path to Restoring Our Atmosphere (Scribner) in July.The scientists estimate that about a third of wetland and freshwater methane emissions in recent years were influenced by human-caused factors including reservoirs and emissions increased by fertilizer runoff, wastewater, land use, and rising temperatures.After a summer when severe weather and heat waves have given a glimpse of the extremes predicted in our changing climate, the authors write, "The world has reached the threshold of 1.5C increases in global average surface temperature, and is only beginning to experience the full consequences."

Carbon capture and storage is a fantasy — and taxpayers are footing the bill -- This spring, Democrats wrapped up a nearly three-year investigation into the fossil fuel industry’s role in climate disinformation and asked the Department of Justice to pick up where they left off. In House and Senate Democrats’ final report and hearing, investigators concluded that major oil companies had not only misled the public on climate change for decades, but also were continuing to misinform them about the industry’s preferred climate “solutions”— particularly biofuels and carbon capture.Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse (D-RI) and Rep. Jamie Raskin (D-MD), who spearheaded the investigation, also accused oil companies of “obstructing” the investigation, submitting few documents, and redacting much of what they did send. One ExxonMobil employee who spoke with Drilled and Vox under condition of anonymity for fear of retaliation described what the company sent as “a truly random assortment of unimportant documents.”But there was at least one notable exception in the form of a report detailing the company’s projections for the future of carbon capture technology. If you’ve read the New York Times recently, or seen this ad on Politico’s website or heard it on one of its podcasts, or listened to the Planet Money podcast, you may have noticed the industry’s relentlessly positive marketing of carbon capture, which aims to collect and store CO2 emissions from power plants and industrial and fossil fuel extraction facilities, so they don’t add to global warming. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has said carbon capture might be necessary to reduce the emissions of certain “hard to abate” sectors like steel, concrete, and some chemical manufacturing, but noted that in the best-case scenario, with carbon capture technology working flawlessly and deployed at large scale, it could only account for a little over 2 percent of global carbon emissions reductions by 2030.That hasn’t stopped major oil companies from claiming that carbon capture and storage “will be essential for helping society achieve net-zero emissions,” that they are delivering “carbon capture for American industry,” working on reducing emissions in their own businesses (also referred to as “carbon intensity”), and delivering “heavy industry with low emissions.” But internal documents obtained during the federal investigation, as well as information that industry whistleblowers shared with Drilled and Vox, reveal an industry that is decidedly more realistic about the emissions-reduction potential of carbon capture and storage technology, or CCS, than it presents publicly.In 2018, the oil and gas company Shell released an updated energy scenario, a forecast that served as a standard for the rest of the oil industry, in which it laid out what the Washington Post called a “radical” new approach on climate. Beginning in 1965, Shell pioneered the now-common practice of “scenario planning” for oil companies: mapping out what the industry and the world are likely to look like in the future; other oil companies will still often compare their scenarios to Shell’s.Exxon’s own internal 2018 scenario comparison was included in the most recent batch of documents handed over to Senate and House investigators. In it, ExxonMobil compared its future projections with Shell’s rosiest forecast for the energy transition. Buried in a chart in that projection is ExxonMobil’s belief about the global potential for CCS.Even without the massive stamp on this page marking it as part of a set of documents obtained by congressional subpoena, these graphs would be difficult to read. The one above compares the projected number of CCS units in Shell’s scenario versus the number projected by ExxonMobil, while the graph on the right compares the two companies’ forecasts for future CO2 emissions.While Shell’s optimistic projection envisions 10,000 large-scale CCS facilities operational by 2070, with more than 2,500 facilities by 2050, Exxon predicts somewhere between 250 and 500 facilities by 2050. Elsewhere in the scenario, Exxon also envisions that “global scale is limited” for CCS and hydrogen tech by 2050.Exxon’s past projections were much more in line with what critics of CCS have been saying for years. The IPCC, for example, has said that even if realized at its full announced potential, CCS would only account for about 2.4 percent of the world’s carbon mitigation by 2030. In its fact sheet on CCS, the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA), a nonprofit, nonpartisan think tank in Ohio that produces market-based research on the energy transition, states: “It’s worth noting that not one single CCS project has ever reached its target CO2 capture rate.”Stanford University researcher Mark Jacobson said that because it also requires energy and materials to function, CCS attached to a fossil-fueled power plant is still worse for the climate than replacing fossil energy with renewables. “They actually increase carbon dioxide emissions by doing this, in addition to increasing air pollution,” he said, referencing a study he conducted in 2019 quantifying the lifecycle CO2 emissions of various carbon capture scenarios. Even when CCS is powered by wind, Jacobson said it’s not worth doing, from a climate perspective. “If you just used wind to replace coal in the first place, you’d get a higher reduction in CO2 emissions,” he said. And oil giants themselves have been hedging on the technology for years, despite marketing its potential. When the Environmental Protection Agency proposed requiring that power plants install CCS in its rules for power plants, for example, both fossil fuel companies and utilities expressed far less faith in the technology in their public comments on the rule than they have in their ads about carbon capture. In Exxon’s public comment, the company encouraged the agency to reduce its requirements around capture efficiency from 95 percent to 75 percent, which is more in line with the actual performance of existing CCS projects.“Last year, when the first EPA power plant rule was released, it was going to mandate either using CCS on a power plant in order to reduce greenhouse gas emissions or to take some action that would be equivalent to adding CCS, and the response from industry was ‘Hey, the tech is really not proven,’” said David Schlissel, director of resource planning analysis for IEEFA. “Many, many comments from oil companies and utilities, in response to both the initial EPA rule and the current one, were saying this tech really doesn’t work.”

Cardin raises concern over Azerbaijan hosting COP29 -Sen. Ben Cardin (D-Md.), chair of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, expressed concern on Monday with Azerbaijan hosting the COP29 climate conference in November, pointing to the country imprisoning Armenian and pro-environmental activists. Cardin, in a statement, said “hosting a major international conference like COP29 should come with responsibilities and expectations that host countries allow frank discussion of information and issues, which requires recognizing freedoms of speech and assembly.” “Azerbaijan has not done so,” he said, urging the country’s president, Ilham Aliyev, “to release those unjustly imprisoned by his government, including Armenian detainees, and community activists who peacefully demonstrated against poor labor practices and harmful environmental impacts of the Chovdar gold mine operation.” The Hill has reached out to Azerbaijan’s embassy in the U.S. for comment. Azerbaijan, located between Asia and Europe in the Caucasus Mountains, will host COP29 from Nov. 11-22 in the capital of Baku. Azerbaijan was announced last December as the next host of the conference that brings together 197 countries and the European Union to advance goals committed to easing the global climate crisis. The conference comes ahead of the 2025 Paris Agreement deadline for nations to put forward climate targets for the year 2035 that are more ambitious than their existing 2030 targets. Azerbaijan has seen intense scrutiny as the conference’s host because it’s an oil and gas producer, and the decision to host came after Baku captured a breakaway region with Armenia, Nagorno-Karabakh, in September 2023, which prompted a mass exodus of the ethnic Armenian population. Baku has also been criticized for jailing critics and independent media. Amnesty International this month called for the release of government critics detained by Azerbaijan, while Human Rights Watch did the same for independent media over the spring. Cardin said Monday that “Azerbaijan has the potential to be an important member of the international community and partner to the United States,” but that Baku must first release several detainees. “Ahead of COP29 in November, I urge the Azerbaijani government to demonstrate its commitment to upholding human rights by releasing these individuals without delay,” Cardin said.

Biden administration OKs major Nevada power project --The Biden administration is approving a major electric power transmission project as well as a solar project in Nevada, it announced Monday.The Greenlink West Transmission Project will create a system of new power lines from North Las Vegas to Reno. When completed, the project could transmit enough energy for 4.8 million homes.While power lines technically can support renewable or fossil energy, more power is particularly vital to getting new climate-friendly power onto the grid. In addition, the administration approved the Libra Solar Project, which will be able to generate enough power for 212,000 homes, on public lands. The project also includes battery storage for the solar power. The approvals come as the presidential race in Nevada remains tight. A polling average from Decision Desk HQ and The Hill shows Harris leading by 0.5 percentage points in the swing state. The Biden administration broadly has sought to advance the build-out of renewable power, including on government-owned lands. Since Biden took office, it has approved 41 renewable projects on public lands that could power more than 12.5 million homes.

Democrats' bill aims to make fossil fuel industry pay for climate change -- A large group of Democrats is looking to force the fossil fuel industry to pay for climate change. Lawmakers unveiled a bill Thursday that would allow the Treasury Department to impose fees on major fossil fuel companies that are owned or operated in the U.S. The legislation seeks to establish a $1 trillion fund that companies would have to pay into based on their share of planet-warming emissions. The money would go toward infrastructure upgrades, cleaning up pollution and providing assistance after climate-related disasters. “After fueling the climate crisis for decades, big polluters can no longer run from their responsibility to address the harm they have done,” said Sen. Chris Van Hollen (D-Md.), the bill’s Senate sponsor, in a written statement. The bill’s House sponsors are Reps. Jerry Nadler (D-N.Y.) and Judy Chu (D-Calif.). The legislation has virtually no chance of passing under the Republican-led House, but could be a major Democratic talking point in the run-up to the election. The bill would also likely face an uphill battle under almost any Senate composition given the upper chamber’s 60-vote threshold for avoiding a filibuster.

Ohio Utica 2Q24 Production – Oil Up 23%, Gas Down 4% vs Year Ago -Marcellus Drilling News - The Ohio Department of Natural Resources (ODNR) released production numbers for the second quarter of 2024 yesterday. The story the numbers tell continues to be about Utica oil, which continues to rise each quarter. Ohio’s total oil production during 2Q24 was 8.01 million barrels, up 23% from 2Q23’s 6.5 million barrels and up 11% from 1Q24’s 7.2 million barrels. The story of oil in the Buckeye State can’t be told apart from Encino Energy (EAP), which produced nearly half of all the state’s oil during 2Q24. As for natural gas production, it’s no surprise it went down slightly in 2Q24, given the current low price for gas. The state produced 526.6 Bcf in 2Q24, down 3.7% from 2Q23’s 547.0 Bcf, and down 1.4% from this year’s first quarter number of 534.0 Bcf. MDN pulled the numbers from the ODNR quarterly report and produced top 25 lists for both gas and oil wells. ANTERO RESOURCES | ASCENT RESOURCES | CNX RESOURCES | DIVERSIFIED ENERGY | ENCINO ENERGY | EOG RESOURCES | EQT CORP |EQUINOR/STATOIL | GEOPETRO | GULFPORT ENERGY | HILCORP ENERGY | INDUSTRYWIDE ISSUES | INR/INFINITY NATURAL RESOURCES | PIN OAK ENERGY PARTNERS | RESEARCH | SOUTHWESTERN ENERGY

Marketed: Stone Hill Exploration and Production Four Well Package in Ohio - Hart Energy - Stone Hill Exploration has retained EnergyNet for the sale of a four well package including two proved developed producing wells in Harrison County, Ohio. The Lot # 119264 package includes a six-month average free cash flow of $59,652 per month. Opportunity highlights:

• Non-Operated WI in two PDP Utica/Point Pleasant Wells
• Two Additional PUD Utica/Point Pleasant Locations
• Six-month Average Free Cash Flow: $59,652/Month
• Six-month Average 8/8ths Production: 783 bbl/d of oil and 18,529 Mcf/d
• Six-month Average Net Production: 40 bbl/d of oil and 957 Mcf/d
• Operator: Ascent Resources Utica LLC
• 86.36 Net HBP Leasehold Acres

Bids are due Sept. 12 at 4:00 p.m. CDT. For complete due diligence, please visit energynet.com or email Zachary Muroff, managing director, atZachary.Muroff@energynet.com.

'The Danger Beneath Us': Natural gas accidents happen because of lack of safety regulations, experts say - WFMJ.com -- Natural gas accidents happen more often than you think. Experts we sought out including the NTSB, say the lack of state and federal safety regulations is to blame. Could it happen again? What needs to change to stop "The Danger Beneath Us." It was a beautiful, calm Tuesday afternoon following the long Memorial Day weekend when calls began pouring into the Mahoning County 911 Center. An explosion shattered that calm at 2:44 p.m. on May 28, right in the heart of downtown Youngstown."Any cars available for traffic? We had a gas explosion at 47 Central Square, 47 Central Square, uh, they believe that there may be people inside," the 911 dispatcher stated."All companies, all fire departments, and ladders respond to 47 Central Square for a gas explosion; multiple victims. EMT is en route," the dispatcher added."They may have someone trapped underwater, but they can’t get into the water because of the electric service. This has been an hour... we’re going on an hour and 20 minutes now, waiting for Ohio Edison to respond and turn off this electricity to this building where there’s been an explosion — there’s part of the building missing," the operator said.The 911 pleaded, "This is a critical incident, and we need someone to respond — yesterday." The natural gas explosion shook downtown Youngstown. One man died, nine people were injured and nearly 200 people living in and around the Realty Building were displaced.While the cause behind this explosion remains under investigation, we know that the city of Youngstown contracted with local construction company GreenHeart to prepare for a city road project. During the time of the explosion, a project was underway to remove and relocate utility lines under the sidewalk in the Realty basement area.The blast happened around 2:44 p.m., and early findings revealed that four workers hired by GreenHeart cut into a pressurized natural gas line with a reciprocating saw, according to the National Transportation Safety Board preliminary report.After the deadly blast, a worker told investigators the crew was under the impression the gas was "dead," at least that's what they were told.If enough natural gas builds up in a confined space, a single spark can cause an explosion.Minutes after cutting into that line, the explosion occurred. The impact is still being felt months later.What happened in Youngstown raises questions about how this could happen and why Youngstown is not alone."There’s a long history of natural gas explosions within residential buildings, as well as in commercial," Richard Kuprewicz, a pipeline regulatory advisor and investigation expert for Accufacts Inc., said."I’ve seen city blocks disappear," Kuprewicz added, "I’m not here to scare anybody. Natural gas in the right or wrong environment can be quite dangerous if not respected and if you don’t respect it, and it gets confined, some very bad things can happen." (list of similar accidents)

Will 'Clipper Crude' be coming? - During Tuesday’s school board meeting, Columbiana schools Superintendent Don Mook got the go-ahead to allow Hilcorp Energy to perform seismic surveys on several tracts of school property to see if there is any oil. If district land contains oil — or valuable minerals from shale — then it would be a financial benefit. The Houston-based company is one of the largest privately-owned oil producers in the United States, operating throughout Ohio, Pennsylvania, Alabama, Alaska, Colorado, Louisiana, New Mexico, Texas and Wyoming, according to its website. Hilcorp first entered Ohio and Pennsylvania in 2012, focusing on the Utica Shale and touting having topped $440,000 in community-giving since 2020.The company currently has 165-plus production wells across Ohio and Pennsylvanice. It has provided more than $200,000 in college scholarships to Ohio and Pennsylvania high school seniors since 2013.Board members Angie Jeffries, Anthony Roncone and Kelly Williamson gave Mook their verbal blessing to proceed with the seismic survey on lands not occupied by district buildings or track.Members Scott Caron and Michael Clark were absent from the meeting.Seismic surveys reflect sound waves to produce a CAT scan of sorts of the Earth’s subsurface. The surveys are used to locate ground water, potential locations for landfills, or even how an area will soak during an earthquake, according to the Utah Geological Survey.But they are primarily used for oil and exploration –generating images through recording and analysis of the sound wave instead of the procedure used by early “wildcatters,” who found oil by drilling into exposed rocks.The seismic technology can find the less obvious oil and gas traps.According to the website, geology.com the Utica Shale is currently receiving a lot of attention because it is yielding large amounts of natural gas, natural gas liquids and crude oil to wells drilled in eastern Ohio and western Pennsylvania.“The United States Geological Survey’s mean estimates of undiscovered, technically recoverable unconventional resources indicate that the Utica Shale contains about 38 trillion cubic feet of natural gas, about 940 million barrels of oil, and 208 million barrels of natural gas liquids,” the site explained.

Utica Shale Academy Transforms Community Through Education | Marcellus Drilling News - The Utica Shale Academy (USA), located in Salineville (Columbiana County), OH, is already a decade old. Where does the time go?! The USA, through an innovative high school curriculum, serves as a leading educational institution for all students who seek to explore, develop, and enhance career opportunities and further advance their education. The curriculum trains kids and adults in the skills needed to get jobs in the shale industry. Several weeks ago, USA staffers, state and local officials, and community members held a luncheon and ribbon-cutting ceremony to celebrate the completion of the USA's Connecting Communities Through Workforce Training Project. USA was heralded as a "transformative beacon for the community and education of youth and adults."

Tuscarawas County fire officials: Gas leak contained after several building evacuated for safety concerns — A Tuscarawas County gas leak that caused several buildings to be evacuated has been contained, Dennison fire officials say. According a post to the Dennison Fire Department's Facebook page, the leak was caused when a gas line was cut through on Tuesday morning. After the leak was noticed, several downtown businesses as well as both Claymont Intermediate and Immaculate Conception schools were evacuated while the leak was contained and stopped.The evacuation order was lifted at 2:15 p.m. after being in place for several hours.Fire officials have given the all clear for regular activities to resume "unless you have been contacted by the fire department or gas company." The posts can be seen here.

14 New Shale Well Permits Issued for PA-OH-WV Sep 2 – 8 | Marcellus Drilling News - For the week of Sept. 2 - 8, 14 permits were issued to drill new shale wells in Marcellus/Utica, less than half the previous week’s 32. The Keystone State (PA) had 13 new permits. PA’s top recipient was Seneca Resources, with six permits issued in Tioga County. Range Resources was #2 with four permits for Lycoming County. Chesapeake Energy had two permits in Bradford County, and Inflection Energy had a single new permit in Lycoming County. BRADFORD COUNTY | CHESAPEAKE ENERGY | INFLECTION ENERGY | LYCOMING COUNTY | MARSHALL COUNTY | RANGE RESOURCES CORP | SENECA RESOURCES | SOUTHWESTERN ENERGY | TIOGA COUNTY (PA)

CEO: Coterra Drops Last Marcellus Rig, May Halt Completions - Coterra Energy released its last Marcellus Shale rig and may halt well completions as the multi-basin operator shifts capital into liquids-rich areas. “As we sit here today, we have no rigs running in the Marcellus,” Coterra CEO Tom Jorden said during the Barclays 38th Annual CEO Energy-Power Conference this month. “We've released our last rig in the Marcellus, where we still have a frac crew working.” When that frac crew finishes, Coterra “may go to no completions.”Coterra has the “luxury,” Jorden called it, of being able to pivot capital into oily and liquids-rich areas, like the Permian and the Anadarko basins.But halting drilling activity in the Marcellus comes as low prices take a toll on gassy E&Ps, including Coterra, which merged Cimarex Energy’s portfolio with Cabot Oil & Gas’ legacy position in Appalachia. Cabot Oil & Gas was a fast-follower in developing the horizontal Marcellus play behind pioneering Appalachia gas producer Range Resources. Range is credited for discovering the Marcellus play in 2007.Coterra held approximately 186,000 net acres in the Marcellus dry gas window at year-end 2023, mostly within Susquehanna County, Pennsylvania, according to regulatory filings. (map) The Marcellus remains a large part of Coterra’s portfolio, accounting for nearly 53%, or 352,400 boe/d, of total companywide production (669,200 boe/d) during the second quarter.Coterra isn’t alone in shifting capital out of the gassy Marcellus and Utica shale plays. Several Appalachia producers—Range, EQT Corp., Chesapeake Energy,CNX Resources, Gulfport Energy and others—have pulled back on drilling activity during a prolonged period of weak natural gas prices.Shutting in production is an appropriate response by operators, Jorden said; Coterra currently has “a little under 300 MMcf/d shut in” as the company waits for gas prices to improve.The company is continuing to complete and turn certain wells to sales but may choose to delay TILs in the future, he said.“Turning TILs on and putting capital back are two different things,” Jorden said.

Trend Accelerates: Pennsylvania Loses 2 More Rigs to West Virginia - Marcellus Drilling News -A very big story is unfolding in the Marcellus/Utica, and nobody else is talking about it. There is a major reshuffling of rigs in the M-U, with Pennsylvania losing active rigs and West Virginia picking them up. Two weeks ago, PA dropped from 21 to 18 active rigs, the lowest count it has had in 2 1/2 years (see Pennsylvania Dropped 3 Rigs Last Week, Lowest Count in 2.5 Years). WV picked up one of those rigs, moving from five to six active rigs. Last week, the trend accelerated.

Marketed: Wellbore Capital 10 Well Package Marcellus Opportunity -- Wellbore Capital LLC has retained EnergyNet for the sale of a Marcellus Shale opportunity, 10 well package in Marion and Wetzel counties, West Virginia. The lot# 104938 package includes a net production of 180 MMcf/d. Opportunity Highlights:

• Overriding Royalty Interest in 10 Wells
  • Avg. ORRI ~ 2.23%
• Six-Month Average (December 2023 - May 2024)
  • Gross Production: 7,999 MMcf/d
  • Net Production: 180 MMcf/d
• Seven-Month Average Net Income: $12,518/Month
• Operator: EQT Production Company
• Avg. ORRI ~2.00% in approximately 8,728.00 gross acres

Bids are due Sept. 17 at 4:00 p.m. CDT. For complete due diligence, please visit energynet.com or email Cody Felton, managing director, atCody.Felton@energynet.com.

US weekly LNG exports down to 23 shipments - US liquefied natural gas (LNG) plants shipped 23 cargoes during the week ending September 11. Pipeline deliveries to the LNG terminals increased compared to the prior week, according to the Energy Information Administration.

Environmental Groups, Louisiana Fishermen Challenge CP2 LNG Approval in Federal Appeals Court - Opponents of U.S. LNG export projects are testing their winning streak in the U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit, this time with a challenge of Venture Global LNG Inc.’s CP2 project. A coalition of local southwestern Louisiana fisherman and landowners, as well as the Natural Resources Defense Council, asked the court to review FERC’s approval of the 20 million metric tons/year (mmty) terminal in Cameron Parish, LA. The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission issued a positive order for the facility in June after a more than 10-month wait. Lawyers with the Southern Environmental Law Center (SELC), which are representing the groups, said FERC’s analysis was insufficient, especially in assessing how CP2 LNG would impact environmental justice (EJ) communities around the facility.

Federal Court’s LNG Decisions Hinder U.S. Natural Gas Infrastructure, Former FERC Chair Says --- Mounting pressure on FERC to change the way it reviews natural gas projects is making energy investors more nervous and is risking a disruption of the U.S. energy infrastructure buildout, according to former Commission Chairman Neil Chatterjee. Decisions made by the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission have increasingly come under scrutiny by the U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia (DC) Circuit. The court has particularly taken aim at FERC’s process for reviewing LNG terminals, remanding and vacating approval for three projects to date this year. Chatterjee called this summer’s decisions “consequential” for the “country's most significant energy regulator,” potentially threatening its ability to remain a bipartisan force of balance for the U.S. energy market.

Glenfarne: Latest Customer Means Texas LNG is Ready for FID -- Glenfarne Energy Transition announced Sept. 11 that an unnamed customer has provided the financial support needed for a final investment decision (FID) to be made on the company's Texas LNG project.Texas LNG is a proposed LNG liquefication and export facility with 4 MMton/year of LNG capacity to be built in the South Texas Port of Brownsville. In July, the company announced it had secured non-binding contracts for half of the plant’s capacity.On Sept. 11, the company announced in a press release it had reached another preliminary heads of agreement with an unspecified customer Glenfarne described as a “highly experienced, investment-grade, global LNG player.” Glenfarne, an international company based in Houston and New York, has identified EQT and the Gunvor Group as part of the Texas LNG customer base. All agreements are non-binding. “We are grateful that our customers have chosen Texas LNG, designed to be the lowest emitting LNG facility in the United States, to make a significant investment in the global energy transition,” said Brendan Duval, CEO and founder of Glenfarne Energy Transition, in a press release.Construction on the plant is scheduled to begin this year, though the project is one of two LNG sites that had permits pulled after a court ruling in August.The D.C. Circuit Court of Appeals vacated permits from the U.S. Federal Energy Regulatory Commissionfor Texas LNG and NextDecade’s Rio Grande LNG, saying the FERC needed to reconsider the projects’ effect on global warming.After the ruling, a Glenfarne spokesman said the company had confidence the FERC would address the matter with the court.Texas LNG has not been affected by the Department of Energy’s “pause” on new LNG permits for trade with non-free trade agreement countries. The company obtained the permit before the pause went into effect.

Strengthening Tropical Storm Headed for Texas, Louisiana Export Terminals – LNG Recap -- Tropical Storm Francine formed Monday in the Gulf of Mexico and was expected to become a hurricane before reaching the Louisiana and upper Texas coastlines on Wednesday. Feed gas flows to U.S. LNG export facilities. The storm’s tentative path puts it on course to potentially impact a number of existing LNG facilities in Louisiana, including the Calcasieu Pass, Cameron and Sabine Pass terminals, as well as the Freeport plant in Texas. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) said hurricane conditions are possible in the region by Wednesday afternoon. NHC issued a hurricane watch Monday for parts of the Louisiana coast, specifically from Cameron eastward to Grand Isle. NHC warned that the storm could bring high winds, heavy rainfall, flooding and storm surge.

LNG Plants, Offshore Natural Gas Producers Brace for Francine as Storm Intensifies --Tropical Storm Francine shifted eastward Tuesday, sparing the coastal corridor on the Louisiana and Texas borders where LNG export facilities are concentrated from a direct hit, but the strengthening system was impacting vessel traffic and offshore oil and gas production. NGI's LNG Export Flow Tracker. Major ports along the Gulf Coast were closed Tuesday, as leading producers evacuated nonessential personnel and shut-in production at deepwater platforms. The storm was initially forecast to hit Louisiana and the upper Texas coast before shifting, which would have threatened more liquefied natural gas output, but some plants were still making preparations on Tuesday. Louisiana is now expected to take the brunt of the storm, which is forecast to make landfall as a Category 2 hurricane on Wednesday near Vermillion Bay, about 160 miles west of New Orleans. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) had a hurricane warning in effect on Tuesday that stretched from Sabine Pass, on the Texas-Louisiana border, to Grand Isle in Louisiana.

Tropical Storm Francine May Hit Louisiana Energy Complex As Category 2 Hurricane -The National Hurricane Center expects Tropical Storm Francine to strengthen overnight into Tuesday. The storm could intensify into a Category 2 hurricane and make landfall on Wednesday evening in Central Louisiana. Bloomberg data shows that dozens of offshore oil platforms and inland refineries are in the storm's cone of uncertainty ahead of landfall. Earlier, several oil/gas companies pulled workers from offshore platforms.Here's more from Bloomberg: Chevron Corp., Exxon Mobil Corp. and Shell Plc are among the companies taking measures such as evacuating workers from vulnerable installations, suspending drilling activities, and shutting in some wells. The storm's forecast path intersects with fields that account for roughly 125,000 barrels of crude and 300 million cubic feet of natural gas on a daily basis, according to Bloomberg calculations of government data. On its expected track, Francine may rake nine major platforms, including Enchilada, Cerveza, Perdido and Hoover.Enki Research, which tracks tropical activity and forecasts disasters, wrote on X that storm impacts on the oil/gas complex across Louisiana will be "short term." On current forecast #Francine should only cause transient disruption to#oilandgas production in the Gulf and refineries; ExxonMobil Baton Rouge Refinery is in the swath but if nothing breaks that shouldn't (and the forecast is right!) should be short term impact as well ...pic.twitter.com/x9p1N3DGf6WTI futures stopped a multi-session slide on Monday, finding a floor around the $68/bbl handle on potential storm impacts. Chevron announced that non-essential employees and contractors have been pulled from four platforms in the US Gulf of Mexico ahead of a tropical storm expected to hit the region in just a few days. Bloomberg said Chevron workers from the Anchor, Big Foot, Jack/St. Malo, and Tahiti installations have been evacuated, noting that production in the Gulf so far remains 'normal'. The National Hurricane Center said the tropical system will be named Tropical Storm Francine once it begins to organize. It's expected to strengthen into a hurricane on Tuesday before landfall along the northwestern US Gulf Coast on Wednesday.

US natgas prices fall 5% as hurricane threatens LNG and power demand (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures fell about 5% on Monday on expectations a hurricane forecast to hit Louisiana later this week could cut demand by curtailing gas flows to Gulf Coast liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants and causing homes and businesses to lose power. Oil and gas producers have started evacuating staff and curbing drilling along the Gulf Coast to prepare for Tropical Storm Francine as it churned across the Gulf of Mexico. The U.S. National Hurricane Center projected Francine will strengthen into a hurricane on Tuesday before hitting the Louisiana coast on Wednesday. Louisiana is home to three of the nation's seven big LNG export plants. Because over 75% of U.S. gas production comes from big inland shale basins like Appalachia in Pennsylvania, West Virginia and Ohio and the Permian in West Texas and eastern New Mexico, analysts said hurricanes were more likely to reduce gas prices by cutting demand through power outages and knocking LNG export plants out of service. That is different from 20 years ago when 20% of the nation's gas came from the federal offshore Gulf of Mexico. Back then, Gulf Coast hurricanes usually caused gas prices to spike higher, but now that offshore region produces only about 2% of the country's gas. Front-month gas futures for October delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 10.5 cents, or 4.6%, to settle at $2.170 per million British thermal units (mmBtu). On Friday, the contract closed at its highest level since July 12 for a second day in a row. The price drop came despite a forecast for more demand next week than previously expected and higher LNG feedgas so far this month. Also weighing on gas prices for much of this year has been the tremendous oversupply of gas left in storage after a mild winter. Financial firm LSEG said gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states slid to an average of 102.4 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in September, down from 103.2 bcfd in August. Meteorologists forecast weather across the U.S. would remain mostly near normal through Sept. 12 before turning warmer than usual from Sept. 13-24. Energy traders, however, noted that warm weather in mid-September would only average around 75 degrees Fahrenheit (23.9 degrees Celsius), compared with a daily average of 79 F in mid-August. LSEG forecast average gas demand in the Lower 48, including exports, will rise from 100.7 bcfd this week to 101.2 bcfd next week. The forecast for next week was higher than LSEG's outlook on Friday.

US natgas prices climb 3% as producers cut output ahead of Storm Francine (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures climbed about 3% on Tuesday as oil and gas producers cut output ahead of a hurricane expected to hit Louisiana on Wednesday. The U.S. National Hurricane Center projected Tropical Storm Francine will strengthen into a hurricane on Tuesday before hitting the Louisiana coast on Wednesday. Louisiana is home to three of the nation's seven big operating LNG export plants. Front-month gas futures for October delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 6.2 cents, or 2.9%, to settle at $2.232 per million British thermal units (mmBtu). Prices rose even though Francine is expected to cut demand by curtailing gas flows to Gulf Coast liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants and cause homes and businesses to lose power. In the spot market, pipeline constraints caused next-day gas prices at the Waha hub in the Permian Shale in West Texas to fall to an all-time low and average in negative territory for a record 34th time this year. Waha prices first averaged below zero in 2019. It happened 17 times in 2019, six times in 2020 and once in 2023. Financial firm LSEG said gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states has slid to an average of 102.2 billion cubic feet per day so far in September, down from 103.2 bcfd in August. On a daily basis, output was on track to drop by 2.9 bcfd to a preliminary 16-week low of 99.9 bcfd on Tuesday. Analysts said some of that output declined probably because some energy firms shut production ahead of Francine. They also noted, however, that preliminary data is often revised later in the day. Meteorologists forecast weather across the U.S. would remain mostly near normal through Sept. 12 before turning warmer than usual from Sept. 13-25. Analysts however noted that warmer-than-normal weather in mid-September would still be pretty mild, keeping demand for heating and cooling low. LSEG forecast average gas demand in the Lower 48, including exports, will rise from 99.4 bcfd this week to 100.4 bcfd next week. Those forecasts were lower than LSEG's outlook on Monday. Gas flows to the seven big U.S. LNG export plants have risen to an average of 13.3 bcfd so far in September, from 12.9 bcfd in August. That compares with a monthly record high of 14.7 bcfd in December 2023. On a daily basis, total LNG feedgas was on track to decline to a one-week low of 12.4 bcfd on Tuesday after the amount of gas flowing to the 2.0-bcfd Cameron LNG export plant in Louisiana fell from 2.2 bcfd on Monday to 1.3 bcfd on Tuesday, LSEG data showed. The NHC forecast Francine would hit the Louisiana coast near Cameron as a hurricane on Wednesday. LNG plants pull in more gas than they can turn into LNG because they use some of that gas to fuel equipment.

US natgas prices climb 2% as producers cut output for Hurricane Francine (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures climbed about 2% on Wednesday as oil and gas producers continued to cut output before Hurricane Francine slams into the Louisiana coast later in the day. Front-month gas futures (NGc1) for October delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 3.8 cents, or 1.7%, to settle at $2.270 per million British thermal units (mmBtu). Prices rose even though Francine was expected to cut gas demand by curtailing flows to Gulf Coast liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants and by causing homes and businesses to lose power. Louisiana is home to three of the nation’s seven big operating LNG export plants. In the spot market, pipeline constraints caused next-day gas prices at the Waha hub in the Permian Shale in West Texas to fall to an all-time low and average in negative territory for a record 35th time this year. Financial firm LSEG said gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states slid to an average of 102.1 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in September, down from 103.2 bcfd in August. On a daily basis, output was on track to drop by 2.7 bcfd over the past two days to a preliminary three-month week low of 100.0 bcfd on Wednesday as energy firms shut some Gulf Coast production ahead of Francine. Meteorologists forecast weather across the U.S. would remain mostly warmer than normal through Sept. 26. Analysts noted that warm weather in mid-September still feels pretty mild and should not result in much gas demand for heating or cooling. Looking ahead, Berkshire Hathaway Energy’s 0.8-bcfd Cove Point LNG export plant in Maryland will likely be shut for about three weeks of routine annual maintenance around Sept. 20, according to the plant’s history and notices to customers.

US natgas rises nearly 5% on smaller-than-expected storage build (Reuters) -U.S. natural gas futures rose nearly 5% on Thursday on a smaller-than-expected storage build last week, while traders assessed the impact on supply after oil and gas producers cut output due to Hurricane Francine. Front-month gas futures NGc1 for October delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose by 8.7 cents, or about 3.8%, to settle at $2.357 per million British thermal units (mmBtu). The contract gained almost 5% earlier in the session. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said utilities added 40 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas into storage during the week ended Sept. 6. That was lower than the 48-bcf build analysts forecast in a Reuters poll and compares with an injection of 50 bcf during the same week a year ago and a five-year average (2019-2023) increase of 67 bcf for this time of year. EIA/GASNGAS/POLL Even though storage builds have been smaller than average in recent weeks, the amount of gas in storage is still around 10% higher than usual for this time of year. "This market is holding steady thus far as it attempts to predict the impact of Hurricane Francine on lost natural gas production where estimates vary widely to as high as 50%," "However, the lost supply will likely prove modest within the overall US gas balances within this age of shale. It also appears that the storm has evaded key LNG export infrastructure in providing a supportive influence to the market," Francine, which has been downgraded to a tropical depression, barreled into southeast Louisiana and southern Mississippi and Alabama on Thursday, pounding the region with heavy rains and gusty winds while threatening the Gulf Coast with dangerous flooding and widespread power outages. The amount of natural gas flowing to U.S. liquefied natural gas export plants was on track to slide further on Thursday with energy companies reducing feedgas to plants because of the storm, according to data from financial firm LSEG. Financial firm LSEG said gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states has slid to an average of 102.1 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in September, down from 103.2 bcfd in August. LSEG forecast average gas demand in the Lower 48, including exports, will rise from 99.6 bcfd this week to 100.1 bcfd next week. Meanwhile, LSEG forecast average gas supply in the Lower 48, including exports, will fall marginally from 109.8 bcfd this week to 109.4 bcfd next week.

US natgas drops on profit taking after hitting 2-month high (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures fell on Friday, as traders took profits after prices rose to a two-month high early, supported by higher demand forecasts and a drop in output in recent days due to Hurricane Francine. Front-month gas futures NGc1 for October delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell by 5.2 cents, or about 2.2%, to settle at $2.305 per million British thermal units (mmBtu). "It looks like there was some profit taking, we had a pretty decent rally this week and especially with the tightness in market expectations, smaller injection that we saw from the storage report yesterday, I think that created some side interest and I think that what we saw here ahead of the weekend was people just taking off some risk," During the session, the contract hit its highest level since July 8. For the week, it was up 1%, the third consecutive weekly gain. "It's all about the storage scrapes that's driving the market right now. So we have a lot of things that we can focus on and say maybe it's low production, high exports to Mexico and increasing demand for power burns. But the reality is less gas is going into the ground towards the end of the storage injection season," The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said utilities added 40 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas into storage during the week ended Sept. 6. Major U.S. natural gas producers are preparing to further curtail production in the second half of 2024, after prices sank nearly 40% over the past two months. "Estimates by the government suggest production curtailed by almost half but we can also note that the predominance of shale output continues to reduce the importance of off-shore GOM supply," e About 53% of natural gas output in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico was shut in the wake of Storm Francine, which was downgraded on Thursday to a post-tropical cyclone by the U.S. National Hurricane Center. Financial firm LSEG said gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states slid to an average of 102.1 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in September, down from 103.2 bcfd in August. Meanwhile, LSEG forecast average gas demand in the Lower 48 U.S. states, including exports, will rise from 99.4 bcfd this week to 100.3 bcfd next week. The U.S. Gulf of Mexico accounts for about 15% of all domestic oil production and 2% of natural gas output, according to federal data. Storm-related disruptions have the potential to affect U.S. oil supplies, leading to pressure on energy prices. LSEG forecast average gas supply in the Lower 48, including exports, will rise marginally from 109.3 bcfd this week to 109.7 bcfd next week.

Three Things to Know About the LNG Market - Hurricane Francine had little impact on U.S. LNG export facilities when it made landfall Wednesday as a Category 2 storm in a remote part of Louisiana. The system was downgraded to a tropical storm as it moved inland and quickly weakened. It was downgraded further Thursday and Friday, but continued to threaten portions of the Tennessee Valley and the Southeast. The storm’s path shifted eastward earlier in the week, sparing liquefied natural gas export facilities clustered along a coastal corridor between Texas and Louisiana. More than 125,000 customers in Louisiana were still without power Friday morning, according to PowerOutage.us. The storm tracked a path near Plaquemines LNG, where about 355 customers were still without power. It was unclear, however, if startup operations were hindered at the facility. Venture Global LNG Inc. had not commented about its operations in the state after the storm formed earlier in the week.

Thousands of gallons of oil spilled in the Christina River – - Crews in Delaware are working to clean up an oil spill in the Christina River that forced all boating to stop. State environmental officials said that the spill started at the Port of Wilmington and involved up to 8,400 gallons of oil. A spokesperson with the Baltimore Coast Guart said that the spill happened during a transfer from the Buckeye Terminal and the Double Skin 59 barge. Federal officials have been notified about the possible impacts to marine animals and other wildlife. The Coast Guard is investigating the cause of the spill.

Oklahoma gains in rig activity but U.S. records a drop | Southwest Ledger - While Oklahoma gained on its rig count recently, the number of active oil and gas rigs across the nation declined, according to the Baker Hughes rig count. Oklahoma saw a gain of one rig to reach 39, the same count as a year ago. The U.S. recorded 583 oil and gas rigs, a decline of two. The breakdown included no change in the number of oil rigs at 483 w hile there was a gas rig drop of two to 95 rigs. The U.S. count is 48 below the 631 rigs reported a year earlier. Over the past 12 months the count included a decline of 29 oil rigs and 19 gas rigs, while the number of active offshore rigs was unchanged at 19. The rig count in Texas was 274, unchanged from the previous week. New Mexico’s count slipped by one to 105, North Dakota continued with 33, and Louisiana saw an addition of one to reach 40 rigs. Colorado fell by one to 13, and the Red Top Rig Report indicated the count in Kansas fell by six rigs to 26. Ohio continued with 9 and Pennsylvania’s numbers fell by three to 18 rigs. Utah was unchanged at 12, and West Virginia numbers grew by one to 6 rigs. Wyoming remained at 14. Little change was noted in the nation’s most active oil and gas plays. The Permian Basin count dropped one to 305. The Williston Basin in the northwestern U.S. was unchanged at 34. The Eagle Ford shale play in Texas, roughly 50 miles wide and 400 miles long, added a rig to reach 48. Rigs operating in the Haynesville shale play in east Texas and northwest Louisiana declined by one to 32, and the rig count in the Marcellus shale in the Appalachian Basin dropped by two to 23. In Oklahoma, the Ardmore Woodford stayed at 2 rigs a nd the Arkoma Woodford remained at one. The Cana Woodford in western Oklahoma added a rig to r each 19. The D-J Basin, which underlies portions of Colorado, Wyoming, Nebraska, South Dakota and Kansas, fell by one to 9 rigs . The Granite Wash play in western Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle, was unchanged with four rigs. The Mississippian lime play in northern Oklahoma and southern Kansas continued with no reported rig activity, based on the Bak er Hughes release. The Utica stayed at a count of 9 active rigs; the Utica shale underlies significant portions of Ohio, Pennsylvania, West Virginia, New York, Quebec, and other parts of eastern North America.

US oil stocks build as crude imports rise, fuel demand weakens - EIA (Reuters) - U.S. oil stockpiles rose across the board last week as crude imports grew and exports dipped and as gasoline and distillate demand weakened, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) said on Wednesday.Crude inventories rose by 833,000 barrels to 419.1 million barrels in the week ending Sept. 6, the EIA said, compared with analysts' expectations in a Reuters poll for a 987,000-barrel rise.Crude stocks at the Cushing, Oklahoma, delivery hub fell by 1.7 million barrels in the week.Crude benchmarks pared gains after the data. Brent was up by 0.7% and U.S. oil futures gained 1% by 11:30 a.m. EDT (1530 GMT). Both had gained $1 earlier in the session.Net U.S. crude imports rose by 1.5 million barrels per day to their highest since June, while crude exports fell by 451,000 bpd to 3.31 million bpd to their lowest level also since June."The import figure can be volatile from a week-to-week basis, and could be a reflection of what's going on with shipping on the Gulf Coast," "Next week I suspect the statistics will be impacted by Hurricane Francine interrupting tanker flow through the Gulf of Mexico," Energy facilities along the U.S. Gulf Coast this week scaled back operations and evacuated some production sites ahead of Francine, which strengthened into a hurricane on Tuesday night. The fourth hurricane of the Atlantic season was moving toward the Louisiana coast."This report appears to have dampened today's rally, but surely the emphasis should be on how much havoc Hurricane Francine is set to wreak on the U.S. Gulf," Refinery crude runs fell by 141,000 bpd last week, and refinery utilization rates fell by 0.5 percentage point to 92.8% of total capacity.Total product supplied, a measure of demand, dropped 1.2 million bpd week over week to 19.4 million bpd, and over the past four weeks totaled 20.5 million bpd, down 2.2% on the year.Distillate stockpiles, which include diesel and heating oil, rose by 2.3 million barrels in the week to 125 million barrels, versus expectations for a 300,000-barrel rise, the EIA data showed.Gasoline stocks rose by 2.3 million barrels in the week to 221.6 million barrels, the EIA said, compared with forecasts for a 100,000-barrel draw.Total gasoline supplied fell on the week by 460,000 bpd to 8.48 million barrels per day."A bearish weekly report, shows demand down, and gasoline demand especially low,” “It's also possible product inventories were built up ahead of the incoming hurricane,"

As Some Canadian LNG Projects Advance, More Are Poised to Lose Export Licenses -- A majority of stalled LNG projects in Canada are poised to lose their natural gas export licenses by 2026, according to the country’s energy regulator. North American LNG Project in development chart. Regulatory delays, environmental resistance, First Nation opposition and logistical issues with connecting to pipeline networks or gas reserves have slowed progress. A company cannot hold an unused gas export license forever, Canada Energy Regulator (CER) spokesperson Karen Ryhorchuk told NGI.

Global Natural Gas Markets Hit Record Liquidity, Says ICE -Intercontinental Exchange Inc. (ICE) on Wednesday again reported record liquidity across its global natural gas futures markets as trade has grown more interconnected with the expansion of LNG. NGI's Global Futures Settles chart ICE said its global natural gas futures markets hit record open interest of 22.4 million contracts on Aug. 27, up 15% year/year. In North America, the bourse said, U.S. financial gas futures and options markets also hit a series of open interest records in August and September, including a record of 11.7 million contracts on Sept. 3, up 13% year/year. Henry Hub, the U.S. benchmark, continues to see strong open interest figures that are up 26% year/year. NGI’s spot Henry Hub natural gas index on Tuesday (Sep. 10) averaged $2.125/MMBtu in 85 deals

Nigeria Steps Up LNG Exports to Asia, Expects Demand to Rise -- State-owned Nigeria National Petroleum Corp. Ltd. (NNPC) started deliveries of LNG exports to China last month after delivering its first cargo to Japan in June on a delivered ex-ship (DES) basis. Nigeria is shifting away from the country’s declining oil revenues and increasing its focus on liquefied natural gas exports, particularly since the decline of Russian exports to Europe has increased global demand for the super-chilled fuel. NNPC plans to ship more LNG cargoes on a DES basis, wherein sellers pay all costs to move cargoes to buyers. “The DES system, apart from being more financially rewarding, allows NNPC inroads into the downstream segment of the LNG sector and positions it to capture more market share, while building in-house capacity and ensuring that global customers are familiar with the NNPC brand," said Dapo Segun, executive president of NNPC Downstream.

Ship behind 1,800-litre Canary Island oil spill detained until it pays £287k - A massive ship has been detained following a 1,800-litre fuel spill in the Canary Islands. The Maritime Authority has locked down the Liberian ship Akhisar, responsible for the spill that occurred during duel transfer operations on Wednesday night. The ship is not allowed to leave the popular Spanish island of Gran Canaria until its owners pay 340,000 euros (£287,000) in damages. 200,000 euros (just under £169,000) will be reserved for the administrative fee that will be determined in an upcoming sanctioning process, while the remaining 140,000 is intended to cover expenses to clean up the spill. Until this amount is deposited with the General Treasury Deposit Box, the Akhisar will be barred from leaving the Port of Las Palmas.

PCG nears completion of oil spill cleanup from sunken MT Terranova - Manila Standard - The Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) on Sunday said nearly 1.3 million liters of oil have been siphoned from motorized tanker (MT) Terranova from August 19 to September 7. In their latest situational bulletin, the PCG said their contracted salvor Harbor Star reported it has gathered over 1.2 million liters of spilled oil during their operations. Harbor Star said that the rate of oil flowing during their latest siphoning operation was 8,690 liters per hour and added that a total of over 52,000 liters of oily waste was collected on Saturday, September 7. PCG personnel also conducted an aerial surveillance while BRP Sindangan performed operations to remove the oil sheen at ground zero. MT Terranova carried nearly 1.5 million liters of industrial oil when it sank in Manila Bay off the east coast of Limay, Bataan on July 25, 2024. The environmental incident was attributed to rough sailing conditions due to heavy rainfall and strong winds caused by the southwest monsoon rains or ‘habagat’ enhanced by Super Typhoon ‘Carina’ in late July.

PCG recovers 97% of oil from MT Terra Nova spill — The Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) on Friday, September 13, said that they only managed to recover 97.43% of the total volume of oil spilled by MT Terra Nova in Limay, Bataan. This is equivalent to 1.4 million liters of oil and an additional 17,725 kilograms of solid oily waste. The contracted salvor Harbor Star informed the PCG on Thursday, September 12, that the remaining 37,867 liters of oil (2.57%) could no longer be siphoned due to various factors. These include biodegradation, where microorganisms like fungi and bacteria consume oil, and dissipation, where oil disperses and becomes less concentrated in the water. Harbor Star also mentioned that the sorbent booms used to prevent the oil spill from spreading further had already absorbed some of the oil. Sorbent booms are sponge-like tools commonly used to control oil spills. Some of the remaining oil sludge in the tanks is no longer pumpable either, the salvor added. The PCG also said that Harbor Star conducted the final stripping operation yesterday to ensure the cargo oil tanks were empty before salvaging MT Terra Nova. “The said procedure is essential to confirm the removal of residual oil and to prevent leakage or oil contamination for the upcoming salvage operation,” the coast guard explained. Since August 19, the PCG has been conducting recovery operations after oil tanker MT Terra Nova capsized on July 25 due to Typhoon Carina.

South Africa launches investigation into Algoa Bay oil spill - The South Africa Incident Management Organisation (IMOrg) has launched an investigation into an oily substance spillage, believed to have originated from a vehicle transportation vessel, MSC Apollo, that was anchored in Algoa Bay. As informed, the initial report came on the 7th of September after a vessel observed oil-like blobs and a sheen on the water. A preliminary investigation confirmed the presence of the oily substance, but further action was delayed due to darkness. SAMSA requested oil spill trajectory modeling from the International Tanker Owners Pollution Federation Limited (ITOPF) to plan the spill response effectively. On the 8th of September , an Incident Management meeting was held involving SAMSA, the Transnet National Ports Authority (TNPA), SANPARKS, and other stakeholders to address the spill’s cause, extent, and containment efforts. Surveillance measures, including sea patrols, aerial surveys, and coastal foot patrols, were initiated. However, no further oil was observed in the affected areas, including the St. Croix Island group. Meanwhile, the MSC Apollo’s hull cleaning to stop further leaking was delayed due to rough seas but was scheduled to proceed once conditions improved. Efforts to monitor and protect local wildlife, particularly birds on nearby islands, are ongoing, with drones and patrols planned to assist in identifying any affected animals. The public has been urged to report sightings of oiled wildlife.

Hurricane Forecast to Hit Louisiana This Week Could Disrupt Production Along the U.S. Gulf Coast - The oil market posted an inside trading day on Monday as the market retraced some of last week’s sharp losses. The market was supported by concerns that a hurricane forecast to hit Louisiana this week could disrupt production along the U.S. Gulf Coast. The oil market was also supported as Libya’s National Oil Corp declared force majeure on several crude cargoes loading from the country’s Es Sider port as production remained shut in by a political standoff over the central bank and oil revenue. The crude market retraced some of its previous losses and held support above the $68.00 level after it opened higher in overnight trading amid the supportive hurricane forecast and continuing output shut in Libya. The market later sold off to a low of $67.31 early in the session. However, as it held support at its previous low, the market bounced back and rallied to a high of $68.96 in afternoon trading. The October WTI contract settled up $1.04 at $68.71 and the November Brent contract settled up 78 cents at $71.84. The product markets ended the session higher, with the heating oil market settling up 93 points at $2.1394 and the RB market settling up 2.44 cents at $1.9204. The U.S. Energy Department said it has awarded contracts for the acquisition of more than 3.4 million barrels of crude oil for the SPR to be delivered from January 2025 through March 2025.The U.S. National Hurricane Center said Tropical Storm Francine has formed over the Louisiana coast and is expected to gain hurricane strength on Wednesday. U.S. Gulf of Mexico oil and gas producers were evacuating staff and halting drilling to prepare for Tropical Storm Francine on Monday as it moved through the energy region on a path to bring high winds and heavy rain to the U.S. mid-South. Francine is likely to bring storm surge to the upper Texas and Louisiana coasts and hurricane force winds to Southern Louisiana this week. Exxon Mobil said it shut in output and evacuated staff from its Hoover offshore production platform. Shell paused some drilling operations at its Perdido and Whale offshore platforms in the Gulf of Mexico on Monday as Storm Francine approaches the Texas coast. It also began evacuating non-essential personnel from its Gulf of Mexico Enchilada/Salsa and Auger offshore facilities. Meanwhile, Chevron is evacuating non-essential workers from its Anchor, Big Foot, Jack/St. Malo and Tahiti oil platforms. Occidental Petroleum said it was prepared to implement storm plans as appropriate. Sources stated that Libya’s National Oil Corporation late last week declared force majeure on several crude cargoes loading from the Es Sider oil port. NOC did not declare force majeure on all loadings for the port, a measure that would have shut all loadings. IIR Energy reported that U.S. oil refiners are expected to shut in about 311,000 bpd of capacity in the week ending September 13^th, increasing available refining capacity by 166,000 bpd. Offline capacity is expected to increase to 535,000 bpd in the week ending September 20^th.

U.S. oil prices end higher as Tropical Storm Francine threatens Gulf operations .Oil futures finished higher on Monday, with U.S. prices up from a 15-month low last week, as traders tracked Tropical Storm Francine and its potential to strengthen into a hurricane that could significantly disrupt energy operations in the Gulf of Mexico region later later this week. Reports that China has been adding to its strategic oil reserve have also offered support for prices, but worries about the outlook for demand persist. West Texas Intermediate crude for October delivery CL.1 CLV24 rose $1.04, or 1.5%, to settle at $68.71 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, marking its first gain in six sessions. It settled Friday at the lowest since June 2023.November Brent crude BRN00 BRNX24, the global benchmark, gained 78 cents, or 1.1%, at $71.84 a barrel on ICE Futures Europe after settling Friday at the lowest since December 2021.October gasoline RBV24 tacked on 1.3% to $1.92 a gallon, while October heating oil HOV24 added nearly 1.2% to $2.14 a gallon.Natural gas for October delivery NGV24 settled at $2.17 per million British thermal units, down 4.6%. Market drivers "Oil futures rebounded as markets reacted to risks of production disruptions by a potential hurricane system near the U.S. Gulf Coast. The U.S. National Hurricane Center predicted the storm may strengthen into a hurricane, heightening concerns about its impact on oil infrastructure," Milad Azar, market analyst at XTB MENA, said in emailed comments. The National Weather Service's National Hurricane Center said Monday that Tropical Storm Francine has formed and could become a hurricane by midweek. It issued a hurricane watch for the Louisiana coast. The storm "should not have a lasting impact, but it's a bit of an irritation for the industry," Phil Flynn, senior market analyst at the Price Futures Group, told MarketWatch. The storm 'should not have a lasting impact, but it's a bit of an irritation for the industry.' Shell said it is actively monitoring the storm and has evacuated nonessential personnel at its Enchilada/Salsa and Auger assets and "safely paused" drilling operations at its Perdido and Whale assets in the Gulf. Exxon Mobil Corp.has shut in its Hoover oil platform, commodity analyst Giovanni Staunovo wrote on X. Also providing support Monday were reports that China was refilling its strategic oil reserve, buying around 16 million barrels per month given the low prices, "The lower price environment will likely increase the aggressiveness of how much they do [add to the reserve] in each month." In other news, the U.S. Energy Department announced Monday that contracts have been awarded for the purchase of more than 3.4 million barrels of crude oil for the nation's Strategic Petroleum Reserve. The government agency said it has now directly purchased over 50 million barrels of oil for the reserve at an average price of about $76 a barrel - nearly $20 a barrel lower than the $95 average sales price for 2022 emergency sales. Oil fell sharply last week, with WTI ending Friday at the lowest for a front-month contract since June 12, 2023, while Brent saw its lowest finish since Dec. 3, 2021. Worries over the outlook for demand, particularly from China, have weighed on the market. Demand-crippling recession fears became the "biggest influence on the energy markets, leaving the fundamental outlook cautious at best if not outright bearish for oil in the medium to longer term," analysts at Sevens Report Research wrote in a Monday newsletter. Last week, the negative catalyst for a drop in WTI oil futures below $70, to new 2024 lows, was disappointing economic data, they said. That started with the "headline miss in China's latest manufacturing PMI, which was followed by soft manufacturing PMI data in Europe and the U.S. as well as mixed, but net weakening, domestic employment data." A decision by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies - known together as OPEC+ - to postpone the unwinding of a portion of its production cuts by two months until December provided little relief.

Traders predict oil prices of $60 per barrel Oil prices are expected to fall to between $60 and $70 per barrel (bbl) as a result of continuing oversupply, according to executives from Gunvor, a multinational energy commodities trader, and Trafigura, a Singapore-based commodities company.The issue of the oil production surplus has already made headlines this year as the OPEC+ alliance made output cuts following the lowest oil prices seen in nine months. Prices currently stand at around $70/bbl, with Brent crude at $71.24 and WTI dipping to $68 late Monday afternoon in London.Prices spiked to more than $100 in May 2022, before hovering at around $85 for the following 18 months.On 6 September, OPEC+ agreed to extend current oil output cuts to the end of November in an attempt to rectify the decline, but there is still more oil currently produced globally than consumed.This balance is only set to worsen over the next few years, Guvnor chairman and co-founder Torbjorn Tornqvist told APPEC attendees. Ben Luckock, Trafigura’s global head of oil, added that the “market wants to know that OPEC is not going to bring those barrels back, or at best is going to bring it back much slower and on a deferred basis”.The International Energy Agency (IEA) has reported that world oil demand has continued to decelerate, as growth in the second quarter (Q2) of 2024 eased to 710,000 barrels per day (bbl/d) year-on-year. This is the slowest quarterly increase since Q4 2022. Meanwhile, global supply rose by 150,000bbl/d to 102.9 million barrels per day.Market concerns around pricing pressures are centred on the US and China, with both major economies reducing their petroleum demand.The cycle of oil supply surplus won’t end until 2026 or beyond, according to S&P Global Commodity Insights vice-president of research Jim Burkhard, who predicted that OPEC+ will increase oil supply next year for the first time since 2022.

Oil Prices Drop 4.5% On Record-Bearish Sentiment from Money Managers --WTI crude futures fell 4.5% on Tuesday morning as hedge funds and money managers continued to sour on crude oil.

• - Hedge funds and other money managers have turned the most bearish on crude ever since the CFTC started to publish information on market positioning, with Brent and WTI net longs totaling a mere 139,242 lots in the week ended September 3.
• - As the oil market gathered in Singapore this week for the annual Appec conference, Trafigura head of oil trading Ben Luckock said oil would dip into the 60s soon, depressed by weakening demand in China.
• - US investment Citi lowered its 2025 price forecast to a mere 60 per barrel, prompting a general downward revision of outlooks as Morgan Stanley and the Bank of America both slashed its expectations to $75 per barrel.
• - Crude oil futures could potentially flip into contango over the upcoming period as the ICE Brent 36-month spread between the November 2024 and November 2027 contracts shrank to a mere $2 per barrel, down from $9 per barrel a month ago.
• - A blaze at Mexico’s largest refinery, the 330,000 b/d Salina Cruz refinery operated by national oil company Pemex, killed two workers as a fire broke out after a truck bumped into refinery waste that surfaced after rain overflowed the sewers.
• - Canada’s pipeline operator Pembina Pipeline (TSO:PPL) agreed to buy infrastructure assets in Alberta’s Montney basin from oil producer Veren for $300 million, in yet another instance of M&A in the midstream segment.
• - US oil major ExxonMobil (NYSE:XOM)has reportedly renounced on the idea of buying half of Galp Energia’s (ELI:GALP) stake in the allegedly huge Mopane offshore discovery in Namibia, potentially wielding 10 billion barrels of oil equivalent.

Not even a forming hurricane in the US Gulf of Mexico could halt the decline in oil prices, with ICE Brent dipping below $70 per barrel and marking the lowest level it has been since late 2021. Defying OPEC+’s postponement of output increases and the Libyan oil embargo, oil prices continue to edge lower on fears of oversupply and an ever-weakening Chinese outlook. Amidst plunging oil prices, OPEC cut its forecast for global oil demand growth in both 2024 and 2025, revising this year’s outlook to a still very ambitious 2.03 million b/d whilst cutting next year’s number marginally lower to 1.74 million b/d. UK-based energy major Shell has paused drilling operations at its Perdido and Whale offshore platforms in the Gulf of Mexico as Tropical Storm Francine, the sixth named storm of the 2024 hurricane season, is headed towards Texas. The American Petroleum Institute warned the US Department of Commerce that if it does not act quickly to publish a new assessment on how to protect endangered species in the Gulf of Mexico, all offshore oil and gas operations could be disrupted.

Oil settles near 3-year low on weak demand outlook (Reuters) - Global oil benchmark Brent crude futures settled at their lowest level since December 2021 on Tuesday, after OPEC+ revised down its demand forecast for this year and 2025, offsetting supply concerns from Tropical Storm Francine. Brent crude futures settled down $2.65, or 3.69%, at $69.19 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude settled down $2.96, or 4.31%, to $65.75 a barrel. Both benchmarks dropped by more than $3 during the session, after each rose by about 1% on Monday. WTI crude futures fell more than 5% on Tuesday, hitting their lowest levels since May 2023. On Tuesday, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) in a monthly report said world oil demand would rise by 2.03 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2024, down from last month's forecast for growth of 2.11 million bpd. Until last month, OPEC had kept the forecast unchanged since it was first made in July 2023. OPEC also cut its 2025 global demand growth estimate to 1.74 million bpd from 1.78 million bpd. Prices slid on the weakening global demand prospects and expectations of oil oversupply. Separately, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) on Tuesday said global oil demand is set to grow to a bigger record this year while output growth will be smaller than prior forecasts.Global oil demand is expected to average around 103.1 million barrels per day this year, the EIA said, some 200,000 bpd higher than its previous forecast of 102.9 million bpd.Oil prices remained depressed after the EIA forecast release, as concerns about China continued to weigh on prices.Data released on Tuesday showed China's exports grew in August at their fastest in nearly 1-1/2 years, but imports disappointed with domestic demand depressed.Meanwhile, Asian refiners' margins fell to their lowest seasonal level since 2020 last week on rising supplies of diesel and gasoline. "There's almost no oil demand growth in the advanced economies this year. Fiscal stimulus in China has not boosted the construction sector; that's one big reason Chinese demand for diesel is shrinking," Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Francine barrelled across the Gulf of Mexico driving operators to shut in around a quarter of offshore crude production, the U.S. Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement said on Tuesday. The U.S. Gulf of Mexico accounts for about 15% of all domestic oil production and 2% of natural gas output, according to federal data. The storm was on track to become a hurricane on Tuesday, the U.S. National Hurricane Center said. Exxon Mobil, Shell, and Chevron have removed offshore staff and halted some Gulf of Mexico oil and gas operations. So far, production shut-ins have failed to offset weak demand sentiment and support prices, analysts said. Meanwhile, U.S. crude oil and gasoline inventories fell while distillates rose last week, according to market sources citing American Petroleum Institute figures on Tuesday. The API figures showed crude stocks fell by 2.793 million barrels in the week ended Sept. 6, the sources said, speaking on condition of anonymity. Gasoline inventories fell by 513,000 barrels, and distillates rose by 191,000 barrels.

After Hitting Nearly 3-Year Low, Crude Oil Prices Rebound on Fears of Supply Disruption from Tropical Storm - Crude prices bounced on Wednesday as concerns about Tropical Storm Francine disrupting supply of oil outweighed worries about demand. Brent crude futures climbed 39 cents, or 0.6%, to $69.58 a barrel by 0031 GMT while U.S. crude futures were at $66.19 a barrel, up 44 cents, or 0.7%. Both benchmarks fell nearly $3 on Tuesday, with Brent hitting its lowest level since December 2021 and WTI falling to a May 2023 trough, after OPEC+ revised down its demand forecast for this year and 2025. “Investors adjusted their positions after Tuesday’s sharp drop,” said Hiroyuki Kikukawa, president of NS Trading, a unit of Nissan Securities. “The rebound was also driven by concerns that the storm could disrupt supply, with some production facilities already suspended,” he said, though he predicted the market would remain bearish due to fears about slowing global demand. Tropical Storm Francine was on track on Tuesday to become a hurricane overnight, the U.S. National Hurricane Center said, prompting Louisiana residents to flee inland and oil and gas companies to shut Gulf of Mexico production. About 24% of crude production and 26% of natural gas output in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico were offline due to the storm, the U.S. Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement (BSEE) said on Tuesday. On Tuesday, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) said in a monthly report world oil demand would rise by 2.03 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2024, down from last month’s forecast for growth of 2.11 million bpd. OPEC also cut its 2025 global demand growth estimate to 1.74 million bpd from 1.78 million bpd. But the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said on Tuesday global oil demand is set to grow to a bigger record this year while output growth will be smaller than prior forecasts. Meanwhile, China’s daily crude oil imports rose last month to their highest in a year, customs data and Reuters records showed on Tuesday, as shipments staged a tentative recovery on lower crude oil prices and improving refining margins.

Oil prices drop to $65, Canadian oilpatch jobs reach 9-year high | Calgary Herald - Oil prices have been on a stomach-churning ride this week, falling briefly below US$66 a barrel amid pessimism over future demand growth and uncertainty about OPEC’s next moves. The turbulence arrives as employment in the Canadian oilpatch has hit a nine-year high — topping 210,000 workers in the sector last month — and industry capital spending returns to 2015 levels. Prices for U.S. benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude, which had closed above $80 a barrel in mid-August, tumbled sharply on Tuesday. The near-month contract for oil closed at $65.75 a barrel, down almost $3 on the day and continuing a recent slump. “All indications have been that the market has been getting weaker, but current fundamentals in no way justify a $12-a-barrel selloff over the past two weeks,” “Everyone is glued to their screens today, basically just waiting for this selling pressure to end, to see where we bottom out.” On Wednesday, WTI prices partially bounced back to close at $67.31 a barrel. Oil markets have dipped this month amid concerns about the global economy, increasing production and weakening demand in China, one of the pivotal drivers of international growth. On Tuesday, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) released its monthly oil market report, projecting consumption will increase by two million barrels per day (bpd) this year and 1.7 million next year. Both would be all-time demand records, yet they’re down slightly from the group’s previous outlook. Meanwhile, supplies are rising in the United States, Brazil and Canada, OPEC noted. Canada’s oilsands have been one of the main contributors to new output in 2024, as operators have boosted spending and output to capitalize on new pipeline capacity that has allowed for increased exports from Western Canada. There are also nagging concerns about whether OPEC+ countries will bring more curtailed production online near the end of the year. The cartel recently decided to delay a plan to add 2.2 million bpd of supply in October, until at least December. “Right now, the market is very much in this bearish mood, so it’s just stuck in the mode where it sees nothing but negativity,” said Martin King, RBN Energy’s managing director of North America energy market analysis. “There’s still this view that OPEC will try and put more supply to the market, unless they are more clear about what they’re going to do.” Despite the apprehension facing oil markets, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported Tuesday it anticipates Brent crude prices will bounce back above $80 a barrel this month. In its latest short-term energy outlook, the EIA forecasts the international benchmark price to average $84 a barrel next year, while West Texas Intermediate crude averages almost $80. That would be a lucrative level for producers and the Alberta government, which projects WTI to average $76.50 a barrel for the current budget year. With less oil production coming from OPEC and its partners in the next two months, oil demand is expected to outstrip production, the U.S. agency said. For Canadian oil producers, the sudden price plunge is garnering attention, but not prompting executives to make cuts to their capital plans. “Everybody will wait and watch,” said Surge Energy CEO Paul Colborne. “In November, December, there would be cutbacks if oil stayed this low — but I don’t think it can stay this low.” Colborne noted the Canadian industry has several factors playing in its favour, including a weak loonie relative to the U.S. dollar, and a narrowing price discount for heavy crude this year. Most companies have pruned their debt levels and can ride out short-term volatility. Spending by the Canadian oil and gas sector has increased this year as the $34-billion Trans Mountain expansion began commercial operations in May, improving market access for the industry and ending years of pipeline congestion. The anticipated startup of the LNG Canada project next year is also expected to spur gas exports. Capital expenditures jumped to $11.9 billion during the second quarter, its highest level since the third quarter of 2015, ATB Economics noted. “We’ve seen an upward trend in oil and gas (capital spending) and it’s coinciding with an improvement that we’re seeing in oil and gas employment nationally,” said ATB chief economist Mark Parsons. “The big driver there is market access.” Employment in the Canadian energy sector is now at its highest point since October 2015. The industry employed 210,000 people last month, creating 14,400 new jobs over the past year, according to Careers in Energy. With the recent decline in oil prices, the S&P/TSX Capped Energy Index has fallen by almost 10 per cent since the end of August, although it’s still up five per cent this year.

Oil Prices Jump 3% as Hurricane Takes 675,000 bpd Offline in the Gulf of Mexico - Oil prices climbed nearly three percent on Wednesday afternoon, spurred by the fear of supply disruptions as Hurricane Francine bulldozes its way through the Gulf of Mexico, where major operators have already shut-in some production and evacuated some personnel. The price surge comes in spite of the Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) inventory report that came out earlier in the day, showing an increase in U.S. stockpiles, initially causing oil to move lower before hurricane headlines reclaimed the trading day. The fears are that this hurricane could lead to a longer production shutdown at a time when Libyan production is largely offline over a dispute between rival governments. At 2:15 p.m. ET on Wednesday, Brent crude was trading up 2.41% at $70.86 per barrel. The U.S. benchmark, West Texas Intermediate (WTI), had further gains, trading up 2.60% at $67.46 per barrel. Meteorologists expect Tropical Storm Francine to strengthen into a hurricane later today as it traverses northeast toward the Gulf Coast and becomes a looming threat for dozens of offshore oil and gas platforms and inland refineries.The latest weather models expect Francine to strengthen into a category two system tomorrow afternoon or evening and make landfall on the Louisiana coast. On Monday, Chevron, Exxon Mobil, and Shell announced workers at offshore rigs in the storm's path were being evacuated and drilling activities suspended. According to a Reuters report on Tuesday, citing unnamed sources, Exxon was planning to slash production at the 522,500-bpd facility to just 20% of capacity ahead of Francine’s landfall.The latest update as of 2:11 p.m. from the U.S. Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement (BSEE), based on data from offshore operators at 11:30 a.m. is that 46% of the GOM’s 371 manned platforms have been evacuated, while 60% of personnel have been evacuated from five rigs operating in the Gulf. Four other rigs have moved off location in a preventative maneuver. Almost 40% of GOM oil production has been shut in, and nearly 50% of natural gas production has been shuttered.

The Market Focused on the Production Shut Ins in the U.S. Gulf Coast Due to Hurricane Francine The oil market on Wednesday retraced some of its previous sharp losses and posted an inside trading as the market focused on the production shut ins in the U.S. Gulf Coast due to Hurricane Francine. Contrary to the market’s reaction to the news of output shut ins on Tuesday, the market was well supported on Wednesday. It retraced some of its previous losses in overnight trading and rallied over the $67.00 level. The market later erased some of its earlier gains and sold off to a low of $65.63 amid the builds reported across the board by the EIA. However, the market bounced off its low and rallied to a high of $67.97 in afternoon trading as 39% of crude production and 49% of natural gas output in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico was shut as Hurricane Francine moved towards the Louisiana coast on Wednesday. The October WTI contract settled up $1.56 at $67.31 and the November Brent contract settled up $1.42 at $70.61. The product markets ended the session in positive territory, with the heating oil market settling up 3.37 cents at $2.0917 and the RB market settling up 2.72 cents at $1.8972. The EIA reported that U.S. crude stocks, gasoline and distillate inventories increased in the week ending September 6^th. Crude inventories increased by 833,000 barrels to 419.1 million barrels on the week. Meanwhile, gasoline and distillate stocks increased by 2.3 million barrels each to 221.6 million barrels and 125 million barrels, respectively. The EIA reported that U.S. East Coast distillate inventories increased by 1.8 million barrels to 37.22 million barrels, the highest level since January 2022.Energy facilities along the U.S. Gulf Coast scaled back operations and evacuated some production sites as Hurricane Francine passed through the region. U.S. offshore regulator Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement said about 39% of crude production and 49% of natural gas output in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico were shut on Wednesday as Hurricane Francine moved towards the Louisiana coast. According to the U.S. Coast Guard, the port of Brownsville near the border with Mexico and other smaller terminals in Texas remained closed, while other ports, including Houston, Galveston, Corpus Christi, Texas City and Freeport, were working with restrictions Between Texas and Louisiana, ports from Beaumont, to Plaquemines imposed restrictions to vessel traffic. Ports in Houma, Morgan City and the Louisiana Offshore Oil Port were closed to navigation. The U.S. Coast Guard suspended operations at Port Fourchon in Louisiana ahead of hurricane Francine. Louisiana Offshore Oil Port (LOOP) said that it suspended marine operations and executed its inclement weather plan due to Hurricane Francine. IIR Energy said U.S. oil refiners are expected to shut in about 530,000 bpd of capacity in the week ending September 13^th, cutting available refining capacity by 23,000 bpd. Offline capacity is expected to fall to 454,000 bpd in the week ending September 20^th.Oil refiners and fuel distributors along the Louisiana coast were preparing to weather the storm. Citgo Petroleum said its Lake Charles oil refinery was implementing its hurricane plan. Exxon Mobil Corp’s Baton Rouge, Louisiana refinery was cutting back production on Tuesday as Hurricane Francine was forecast to pass just east of its location. Exxon plans to cut production to as low as 20% of the Baton Rouge refinery’s 522,500 bpd capacity by Wednesday when Francine moves ashore. Meanwhile, Exxon and Shell Plc’s 233,702 bpd Norco, Louisiana refinery were planning rely on “ridethrough” crews to operate the refineries during the storm’s passage.

Oil Market Analysis: Higher Estimates of Lost Output Due to Hurricane Francine - The crude market rallied higher on Thursday extending Wednesday’s gains amid concerns over Hurricane Francine’s impact on U.S. output. The market was well supported as the extent of the hurricane’s impact on energy production began to emerge, with higher estimates of lost output from the more than 171 offshore platforms that were evacuated due to the storm. The oil market opened slightly higher and posted a low of $67.24 early in the session. It extended its gains to $2.50 as it rallied to a high of $69.81 by mid-day. The market later erased some of its gains ahead of the close. The October WTI contract settled up $1.66 at $68.97 and the November Brent contract settled up $1.36 at $71.97. The product markets ended the session higher, with the heating oil market settling up 2.71 cents at $2.1188 and the RB market settling up 2.98 cents at $1.9270. U.S. energy producers on Thursday were assessing the extent of damage from Hurricane Francine to their U.S. Gulf of Mexico infrastructure while export ports in southern Texas began to reopen. The extent of Francine’s impact on energy production began to emerge with new, higher estimates of lost output from the more than 171 offshore platforms that were evacuated. The U.S. Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement said that about 730,000 bpd or 42% of crude oil production and 53% of natural gas output in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico were shut on Thursday. Shell said that downstream issues stemming from hurricane Francine led to curtailed production at Appomattox, Mars, Vito, Ursa, and Olympus in the Gulf of Mexico. It said it started redeploying personnel to its Perdido asset, while production there and at its Auger and Enchilada/Salsa assets is still shut in. It also stated that drilling remained paused at its Whale asset. Woodside Energy shut-in oil and gas output on Wednesday at its Shenzi offshore production platform in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico. A Woodside spokesperson said an onshore refinery lost power prompting the shut-in. The company earlier had partially evacuated staff from the platform ahead of the arrival of Hurricane Francine. Top U.S. oil and fuel export ports from south to central Texas reopened. The U.S. Coast Guard said the port of Corpus Christi lifted restrictions, while ports in Freeport, Houston to as far north as Sabine reopened. Louisiana ports including Cameron, Lake Charles, New Orleans, Plaquemines, St. Bernard and sections of the Mississippi River remained closed. UBS said Hurricane Francine likely disrupted about 1.5 million barrels of U.S. oil production. It said oil production in the Gulf of Mexico in September will be reduced by about 50,000 bpd.In its monthly report, the IEA cut its 2024 oil demand growth forecast by 70,000 bpd or about 7.2% from a previous estimate to 900,000 bpd. The agency cited a slowdown in Chinese demand as the main driver of weaker global demand growth. It now expects Chinese demand to grow by 180,000 bpd in 2024 as a broader macroeconomic slowdown coincides with higher uptake of electric vehicles. The IEA left its 2025 world oil demand growth forecast unchanged at 950,000 bpd. It said current trends reinforce its expectation that global oil demand will plateau by the end of the decade. It said the current balances suggest the world oil market will be oversupplied in 2025 if OPEC+ proceeds with its proposed unwinding of cuts. The IEA said increasing global oil supply is being driven by higher non-OPEC output, with the agency forecasting non-OPEC supply growth at 1.5 million bpd for this year and next, with higher production from the United States, Guyana, Canada and Brazil.

Oil settles at highest in a week as Hurricane Francine disrupts Gulf output -Oil futures finished higher for a second straight session on Thursday, and turned higher for the week, as Hurricane Francine led to disruptions in U.S. oil and gas production in the Gulf of Mexico. Gains for oil, however, were capped by continued worries over the outlook for crude demand. West Texas Intermediate crude for October delivery rose $1.66, or 2.5%, to settle at $68.97 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, trading more than 1% higher for the week.November Brent crude, the global benchmark, climbed $1.36, or 1.9%, to end at $71.97 a barrel on ICE Futures Europe.October gasoline RBV24 tacked on 1.6% to $1.93 a gallon, while October heating oil HOV24 added 1.3% to $2.12 a gallon.Natural gas for October delivery NGV24 settled at $2.36 per million British thermal units, up 3.8%.Francine made landfall in Louisiana Wednesday evening as a Category 2 hurricane. It was downgraded to a tropical depression Thursday morning."The overall impact of Francine is still developing as affected areas pivot to assess damage to infrastructure," said Robbie Fraser, associate director for global research and analytics at Schneider Electric. In most cases, offshore production tends to recover "swiftly" after such events, Fraser said.In Louisiana, early reports show multiple refinery outages or curtailments, while the "higher concentrations" of refining along the Texas coast were less affected as the storm pivoted to the east, he said in a daily market update.As of Thursday, the Interior Department's Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement reported that 41.74% of the region's oil production and 53.32% of the area's natural-gas production was shut in because of the hurricane. In market commentary, Rania Gule, senior market analyst at XS.com, said it's important to note that the "long-term impact of storms on production may be limited, as production operations typically return to normal relatively quickly once the threat has passed." So these current price increases "may be temporary if the economic situation stabilizes after the storm," she said. Both WTI and Brent climbed by more than 2% on Wednesday as Francine headed toward the Gulf Coast. Both crude contracts had ended Tuesday at their lowest since December 2021, leaving them technically oversold and ripe for short covering. But the lack of a more immediate, meaningful bounce for crude raised red flags for some traders, who see concerns over the outlook for demand continuing to cap prices."Traders built an overly pessimistic narrative of all the things going wrong at the same time - demand problems in China and recession fear elsewhere," "Believing all things negative is a fool's errand," he said. The dip in prices early this week "invited those on the sidelines to get on the train and build their positions."Despite the negativity, "OPEC has shown discipline, Libyan output remains largely shut and then finally a reprieve from Hurricane Francine," Raj said. "Granted, none of these factors is going to last, but still provides life support to traders who haven't found any respite in the sea of bad news." Still, Li Xing Gan, a financial markets strategist at Exness, said in a note that "several factors may temper a rebound in oil prices. A global economic slowdown and a weak demand outlook are significant headwinds."In its monthly report, the Paris-based International Energy Agency on Thursday said global oil demand growth is slowing sharply from its postpandemic rate.The IEA said demand rose by 800,000 barrels a day year over year in the first half of 2024, well below the growth of 2.3 million barrels a day seen in 2023. For the year as a whole, the IEA sees global demand set to increase by around 900,000 barrels a day in 2024 and 950,000 barrels a day in 2025.The "chief driver of this downturn is a rapidly slowing China, where consumption contracted [year over year] for a fourth straight month in July," the IEA said in its report.In other energy-related news Thursday, natural-gas futures climbed after the Energy Information Administration reported Thursday that U.S. supplies of the fuel rose by a less-than-expected 40 billion cubic feet for the week that ended Sept. 6. Analysts had forecast an increase of 50 bcf, according to a survey conducted by the Wall Street Journal.

Oil prices rise as US production slowly resumes after hurricane - Oil prices rose more than $1 a barrel on Friday, extending their rally and putting crude on course for a weekly gain on the back of output disruptions in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico after Hurricane Francine forced the evacuation of production platforms. Brent crude futures were up $1.16 cents, or 1.6%, at $73.13 a barrel by 10:49 a.m. EDT (1449 GMT). U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures rose $1.24, or 1.8%, to $70.21. If those gains hold, both benchmarks will break a streak of weekly declines despite Brent crude dipping below $70 a barrel on Tuesday for the first time since late 2021.At current levels, Brent is set for a weekly increase of about 3% while WTI is poised to register a roughly 3.5% gain. “Ongoing supply disruptions in Libya and larger-than-expected disruption in the Gulf of Mexico due to Hurricane Francine keep the oil market tight," "Further support is likely coming from short-covering activity as a result of rebounding prices." A weaker U.S. dollar also helped support oil prices. Dollar weakness makes dollar-denominated commodities cheaper for holders of other currencies. Oil producers assessed damage and conducted safety checks on Thursday as they prepared to resume operations in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico after Francine, which has since been downgraded to a storm. Official data showed that nearly 42% of the region's oil output was shut in as of Thursday.The storm-based rally could be short-lived, however, considering the weather system failed to curtail onshore crude production, "These cuts are expected to prove brief and within the broader context are unlikely to spur much movement in the crude balances given the importance of shale production that accounts for the major portion of U.S. output," Both the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and the International Energy Agency (IEA) lowered their demand growth forecasts this week, citing economic struggles in China, the world's largest oil importer. U.S. oil stockpiles also rose across the board last week as crude imports grew and exports dipped, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) said on Wednesday.Investors are looking ahead now to the U.S. Federal Reserve's two-day policy meeting next week. It is widely expected to cut interest rates on Wednesday.

Oil eases on resuming US output after storm, rising rig count (Reuters) - Oil prices fell on Friday as U.S. Gulf of Mexico crude production resumed following Hurricane Francine and rising data showed a weekly rise in U.S. rig count. Brent crude futures settled at $71.61 a barrel, down 36 cents, or 0.5%. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI) settled at $68.65 a barrel, down 32 cents, or 0.5%. As U.S. Gulf Coast production and refining activity resumes, investors have opted to offload oil contracts going into the weekend, "You could come back Monday and everything is fine - the refineries are running at 100%, everyone is back on the platform, oil comes back and gasoline is coming out of the refinery - and the market could potentially pull back exponentially," . For the week, oil futures finished higher following sharp storm-related increases early in the week, breaking a streak of declines. Brent logged an increase of about 0.8% since the close of last Friday's session, while WTI registered a roughly 1.4% gain. Official data showed that, as of Thursday, the storm nearly shut in 42% of oil production in the region that accounts for about 15% of U.S. output. "These cuts are expected to prove brief and within the broader context are unlikely to spur much movement in the crude balances given the importance of shale production that accounts for the major portion of U.S. output," Ritterbusch said. Crude prices also took a hit from the U.S. rig count from energy services group Baker Hughes, which reported the biggest weekly rise in oil and natural gas rig in a year. The oil and gas rig count rose by eight in the week to Sept. 13 to 590, returning to mid-June levels. The increase was the biggest since the week to Sept. 15, 2023. , , . Crude oil rigs rose by five to 488 this week, while gas rigs rose by three to 97. Also on the week, money managers cut their net long crude futures and options positions in New York and London by 27,493 contracts to 59,741 in the week to Sept. 10, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission said. Both the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and the International Energy Agency lowered their demand growth forecasts this week, citing economic struggles in China, the world's largest oil importer. U.S. oil stockpiles also rose across the board last week as crude imports grew and exports dipped, while fuel demand weakened, the Energy Information Administration said on Wednesday. Investors are looking ahead now to the U.S. Federal Reserve's two-day policy meeting next week. It is widely expected to cut interest rates on Wednesday.

Oil falls after back-to-back gains on storm disruptions, still settles higher for the week - U.S. crude prices post 1.5% weekly rise after Francine disrupts output in Gulf of Mexico Oil futures finished with a loss on Friday as concerns about the demand outlooked lingered, but prices gained for the week after Hurricane Francine disrupted output in the Gulf of Mexico. West Texas Intermediate crude for October delivery fell 32 cents, or 0.5%, to settle at $68.65 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, but posted a weekly gain of nearly 1.5%.November Brent crude , the global benchmark, lost 36 cents, or 0.5%, at $71.61 a barrel on ICE Futures Europe, settling 0.8% higher for the week.October gasoline added 0.2% to $1.93 a gallon, for a weekly gain of 1.8%, while October heating oil declined by 1.6% to $2.08 a gallon and was down almost 1.5% for the week.Natural gas for October delivery NGV24 settled at $2.31 per million British thermal units, down 2.2% Friday and paring its weekly gain to 1.3%. "Unless we see some improvement in data to suggest that crude-oil demand is going to be stronger, or supply growth is going to be weaker, this recovery we have seen should be taken with a pinch of salt," 'Unless we see some improvement in data to suggest that crude-oil demand is going to be stronger, or supply growth is going to be weaker, this recovery we have seen should be taken with a pinch of salt. It is likely that prices have found "support this week amid short-side profit taking and on the back of weaker U.S. dollar, with hurricane disruptions further encouraging dip-buyers," But weakness in China's economy is a "major concern, which puts the weekend's release of industrial data from the world's second largest economy [China] into focus," Both WTI and Brent crude had closed Tuesday at their lowest since December 2021, but recovered as Francine forced the shut-in of offshore oil and gas rigs in the Gulf of Mexico and caused other disruptions.As of Friday, the Interior Department's Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement reported that 41.85% of the region's oil production, or 732,316 barrels of oil per day, and 52.3% of the area's natural-gas production, or 973.2 million cubic feet per day were shut in because storm, which made landfall on the Gulf Coast earlier this week as a Category 2 hurricane. Francine provided a "hurricane bid" for crude prices despite continued concerns about the demand outlook, Production disruptions caused by storms, however, are only temporary. "Producers on the offshore platforms are performing safety checks [Friday] and intend to have production back this weekend, while also reopening export ports," Separately, Baker Hughes (BKR) on Friday reported that the number of active U.S. rigs drilling for oil was up by 5 at 488 this week, suggesting an upcoming rise in production. The number had been unchanged for three consecutive weeks.Feeding worries about demand, the Paris-based International Energy Agency on Thursday warned that global demand is cooling, particularly as China's economy continues to struggle and crude production outside of OPEC+ - made up of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies - continues to grow.Though producers within OPEC+ recently postponed plans to begin trimming some of its production curbs by two months until December, the delay "will not make much difference," wrote Roukaya Ibrahim, strategist at BCA Research, in a note Friday. Even a scenario in which OPEC+ maintains their current supplies cuts to the end of the year "will not be enough to prevent a surplus in oil markets next year."Outside of OPEC+, the IEA expects oil production to grow by 1.5 million barrels a day in 2024 and 2025."That supply flood explains why traders remain bearish despite the short-term disruption in U.S. inventories ," Innes said. "Despite current supply risks, the oversupply narrative continues to hang over the market, keeping a lid on oil's upside potential."In the week ahead, crude-oil traders will be watching the big central bank rate decisions,, especially the Federal Reserve's on Wednesday.If the Federal Open Market committee's economic projections in the dot plots point to weakness in growth, then that could "trigger a fresh wave of selling" in oil,

Salvage operation for oil tanker in Red Sea not safe, EU says - The European Union's naval mission in the Red Sea says private companies have called off attempts to salvage a burning oil tanker because the situation is unsafe. The Greek-owned and flagged MV Sounion, carrying about a million barrels of crude, was abandoned by its crew after it was hit by projectiles fired by Yemen’s Houthi movement on 21 August. Fighters later detonated explosives onboard, sparking several fires. Last Wednesday, the Houthis said they had agreed to allow the tanker to be towed away to avert an unprecedented environmental disaster. The EU mission, which was providing security to the tugs involved in the salvage operation, said “alternative solutions" were being explored. On Monday, the mission reported that fires continued to burn on the tanker’s main deck. “The vessel remains anchored without drifting, and there are no visible signs of an oil spill,” it said. The United States has warned that a spill from the Sounion could be almost four times as large as the Exxon Valdez disaster in 1989. That incident saw 2,100km (1,300 miles) of coastline contaminated after a tanker ran aground off Alaska. The Iran-backed Houthis have repeatedly targeted commercial shipping in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden since November. They say they are acting in support of the Palestinians in the war between Israel and Hamas in the Gaza Strip. They have claimed - often falsely - that they are targeting ships only linked to Israel, the US or the UK. They have not been deterred by the deployment of Western warships to protect merchant vessels or by US and British air strikes on territory they control in north-western Yemen. Israel also bombed Hudaydah’s port in July in retaliation for a deadly drone strike on Tel Aviv.

Greek oil tanker still ablaze in Red Sea two weeks after attack | CNN – video -US Defense officials tell CNN a Greek-owned tanker called the MV Sounion, carrying a million barrels of oil, is still in flames following an attack by Yemeni Houthi rebels on August 21st.

Houthis target Chinese tanker in the Red Sea -- A missile attack on a Chinese-owned, Chinese-operated oil tanker on March 23 caused damage and a fire onboard. The incident comes within days of reports that the Houthis had agreed with China and Russia to allow for the safe passage of their ships through the region. According to a report from US Central Command, the last of five missiles fired at oil tanker Huang Pu in the early hours of March 23 found its target, leading the ship’s crew to issue a distress call. Assistance was not requested, the vessel suffered minimal damage and a fire onboard was extinguished within 30 minutes said the update. UKMTO reported the incident as occurring 23NM west of Mukha, with the ship and crew safe and continuing to the next port of call. “The Houthis attacked the MV Huang despite previously stating they would not attack Chinese vessels,” said US Central Command on Twitter. Later the same morning, US forces engaged six Houthi unmanned aerial vehicles in the Southern Red Sea which were deemed a threat to US forces and merchant shipping. Five of the UAVs crashed into the sea and one returned to Houthi controlled land in Yemen.

Even After Houthi Attacks, Russia-Linked Tankers Return to Red Sea --The maritime incidents involving oil tankers in the Red Sea highlight significant risks for vessels transporting Russian oil, especially given the ongoing threat from Houthi forces. The Andromeda Star and Freda, two Panama-flagged crude oil tankers, provide clear examples of how the Houthis are targeting ships based on outdated ownership data and past links to Western countries. Both vessels, previously owned by UK-based Union Maritime Ltd., were misidentified by the Houthis as British ships when they were attacked with anti-ship ballistic missiles (ASBMs) in 2023 and 2024. Despite these attacks, both ships have continued operating along vital oil transportation routes, such as the Red Sea, carrying Russian oil primarily to markets in Asia. The Andromeda Star, which was hit by the Houthis in April 2023, was falsely labeled as a British vessel, likely due to its past ties to a UK company. The ship had been transporting Russian oil to India at the time of the attack. The Houthi forces, relying on outdated information, likely targeted the vessel under the assumption it still had British ownership. Despite this attack, the Andromeda Star has continued its operations, recently spotted sailing back from India to Russia via the Red Sea. Similarly, the Freda (formerly Huang Pu) was targeted in March 2024 by the Houthis, again based on outdated data. The Houthis labeled the vessel as British, although by the time of the attack, the ship had changed ownership and was operated by a Hong Kong-based company with a Chinese crew. The Houthis’ attack contradicted their earlier statement that they would not target Chinese vessels. Following this incident, the Freda resumed operations, transporting Russian oil from India back to Russian ports. Both tankers belong to a broader “dark fleet” of vessels engaged in transporting Russian oil in defiance of Western sanctions. These ships often engage in practices that obfuscate their movements, such as manipulating AIS (Automatic Identification System) data, which adds to the complexity of monitoring their activities. Maritime intelligence firms like TankerTrackers.com and Lloyd’s List have confirmed that these vessels continue to operate in the Red Sea, suggesting that their operators are either accepting the risks posed by Houthi attacks or are no longer concerned about their previous links to the UK. This situation underscores two possible dynamics: either the ship operators are taking considerable risks by continuing to use the Red Sea as a transport route, or they believe the issue of past UK affiliations has been resolved. While there is speculation that the vessels' operators may have established some form of communication with the Houthis to avoid future attacks, this remains unconfirmed. The persistence of these ships in such a high-risk region demonstrates the vital importance of the Red Sea route for transporting Russian oil, particularly to key markets like India and China. However, it also highlights the dangers faced by vessels navigating this contested maritime zone amidst geopolitical tensions and ongoing conflicts.

Oil tanker ablaze off Yemen threatens environmental disaster - An abandoned tanker carrying more than one million barrels of crude oil could contaminate vast areas of the Red Sea in a severe, long-term environmental disaster if it breaks up or explodes, experts warn. The Greek-flagged Sounion, struck on August 21 by Yemen's Huthi rebels, was still on fire as recently as Saturday, maritime monitors said.

Fresh Red Sea salvage operation underway to save tanker struck by Houthis Ten days after salvors called off efforts to tow to safety a burning, laden crude tanker in the Red Sea, tugs are sailing in the region to undertake a second attempt. Sources following the matter closely said that “more powerful means” will be employed than in the initial attempt on 1 September, when the 15,000-bhp Gladiator (built 1977) and 5,150-bhp Hercules (built 2009) backed out, citing safety concerns. TradeWinds understands that the vessels now engaged for the purpose include the Greek-flagged 10,000-bhp Agaion Pelagos (built 2010), which vessel trackers already show underway in the Red Sea. At least one more vessel, a port tug, is believed to have been hired to help assist the stricken, 163,800-dwt Sounion (built 2006) to enter a harbor — possibly in Suez — to transfer its cargo. It is believed that the effort to rescue the Greek-flagged Sounion of Greek company Delta Tankers is being orchestrated by the vessel’s insurers. The Greek government has been coordinating with Saudi counterparts as well, even though it remains unclear in what practical way this supports the salvage efforts. No Lloyd’s Open Form has been signed for the business, with salvors keen to keep their identity secret for security reasons. “It’s all very hush hush,” one of the sources said. Yemen’s Houthi rebels, who caused the Sounion’s travails by attacking the vessel with missiles on 21 August and by boarding it later to blow up its deck with explosives, have signalled they will not attack salvors in order to avoid an environmental disaster on their country's shores. A relatively long lull of Houthi attacks on passing ships in the Red Sea fore more than 10 days now may be connected to the Sounion conundrum. Meanwhile, little has changed regarding the situation of the ship. Smoke is still rising from its deck, suggesting flames continue raging just below deck. The ship, on the other hand, remains anchored and has not spilled any of its crude cargo. Some spillage observed from the Sounion concerns fuel that leaked out after its engine was hit by a Houthi missile. Asked about the risk of a crude cargo spill, a shipping player described it as “real but not acute at this moment”.

Israeli Forces Kill 94 Palestinians in Gaza Over Three Days - Israeli forces have killed at least 94 Palestinians in the Gaza Strip over the past three days, according to numbers released by Gaza’s Health Ministry.The ministry said on Saturday that 61 Palestinians were killed and another 162 were injured over the previous 48-hour period.On Sunday, the ministry said another 33 Palestinians were killed, bringing the recorded death toll to 40,972 and the number of wounded to 94,761.Strikes in Gaza on Saturday targeted two schools-turned-shelters for displaced people, one in Gaza City and one in the Jabalia refugee camp. The two strikes killed at least 12 people. On Sunday, six Palestinians were reported killed in attacks on homes in Gaza City.On September 5, Gaza’s Media Office released figures on the number of women and children who have been killed. It said the Israeli campaign had killed 16,715 children and 11,308 women since October 7.The numbers from Gaza’s Health Ministry and Media Office are considered a low estimate since they don’t include Palestinians who are missing and presumed dead under the rubble, which has previously been estimated to be about 10,000 people.It’s also unclear how many people have died in Gaza due to indirect causes. A letter written by a group of experts recently published in the British medical journal The Lancet estimated the total number of deaths in Gaza, including those killed by the Israeli military and indirect causes, could reach 186,000. They reached the numbers by using the death toll from the end of June, which was 37,396.

Nineteen Palestinians Reported Killed in Israeli Strikes on al-Mawasi Camp in Gaza - At least 40 Palestinians were killed, and 60 were injured by Israeli strikes on the al-Mawasi camp in southern Gaza early Tuesday morning, a Gaza Civil Defense official told AFP.Israel has designated the camp as a so-called “safe zone,” but it has been repeatedly targeted by the Israeli military throughout the genocidal war. According to Al Jazeera, Gaza’s Civil Defense, which is responsible for emergency and rescue services, said the strike hit 20 tents sheltering displaced Palestinians, and local sources said the Israeli missiles left craters up to nine meters deep.The Israeli military claimed the strike targeted “significant” members of Hamas but offered no evidence for the claim and has so far not released the names of the people it claims it targeted.According to Reuters, Gaza’s Civil Defense said the dead included women and children, but they have yet to release a breakdown of the casualties. “Our teams are still moving out martyrs and wounded from the targeted area. It looks like a new Israeli massacre,” an official said.On Monday, Gaza’s Health Ministry said 16 Palestinians were killed by the Israeli assault in the previous 24-hour period. Also on Monday, Israeli forces detained a UN convoy involved with the ongoing polio vaccination campaign for Gaza’s children.

Israeli Strikes Kill 64 Palestinians Across the Gaza Strip - Israel’s relentless assault on the Gaza Strip continued on Wednesday, and Gaza’s Health Ministry reported that at least 64 Palestinians were killed in the previous 24-hour period.The latest violence brings the number of Palestinians killed by Israeli forces in Gaza since October 7 to 41,084, according to the Health Ministry’s figures, which don’t account for the 10,000 people estimated to be missing and presumed dead under the rubble. The ministry said the number of wounded has reached 95,029.Strikes in Gaza on Wednesday included the bombing of a UN school turned shelter for displaced Palestinians in the Nuseirat refugee camp in central Gaza. The strike killed at least 14 people, including two children and a woman, and wounded 18 others. The UN’s Palestinian relief agency, UNRWA, said six of its employees were killed in the bombing. “Among those killed was the manager of the UNRWA shelter and other team members providing assistance to displaced people,” UNRWA said. “This school has been hit five times since the war began. It is home to around 12,000 displaced people, mainly women and children.” Without providing evidence, Israel claimed that it targeted a Hamas “command and control” center in Nuseirat.An Israeli strike targeted a home in Khan Younis early Wednesday, killing 11 people. According to Al Jazeera, the European Hospital, which received the casualties, said the dead included six brothers and sisters, ranging in age from 21 months to 21 years old.Gaza’s Civil Defense said that an Israeli strike targeted Palestinians waiting in a line for bread in Gaza City, killing three people and wounding seven. Late Tuesday, a strike was reported in the Jabalia refugee camp that targeted a home, killing nine, including six women and children.The Biden administration continues to support the genocidal slaughter in Gaza by providing weapons to the Israeli military. A senior Israeli Air Force official recently acknowledged that without the US military aid, Israel would not be able to sustain operations in Gaza for more than a few months.

Israeli Strike On Alleged Syrian Chemical Weapons Facility Leaves High Death Toll - A late Sunday night apparent Israeli aerial attack on Syria has left at least 18 people dead and 36 injured, Syrian state SANA news agency reported Monday. This marks the highest death toll in Syria from an Israeli strike since the Gaza war began last October. Several explosions were witnessed shortly before midnight on Sunday impacting the Tartous and Hama governorates, particularly in the area of the Masyaf countryside. Israeli strikes in this coastal vicinity is somewhat rare.The target appears to have been a secretive facility long eyed by the West as part of the Assad government's chemical weapons program."About half an hour before midnight, multiple airstrikes targeted the Syrian Military Scientific Studies and Research Center (SSRC) and several nearby buildings. I heard at least eight explosions, followed by the sound of ambulances," a local resident who spoke to CNN described.Some of the injured remain in critical condition, and the unusually high death toll suggests there may have been employees and staff inside the research center building when it was hit. Syrian Health Minister Hassan al-Ghabbash described the strikes as a "brutal and barbaric aggression" against a sovereign state.In the aftermath of the strikes, large forest fires erupted along the nearby Wadi al-Uyun highway in Masyaf. Syrian media sources released the below photograph of fires raging in the area...The Associated Press has cited a UK-based anti-Assad monitoring group to claim that Hezbollah operatives were among those killed in the attack:The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, a U.K.-based war monitor, said 25 were killed, including at least five civilians, while the others included Syrian army soldiers and members of Hezbollah and other Iran-linked armed groups.One strike targeted a scientific research center in Masyaf, and others struck sites where "Iranian militias and experts are stationed to develop weapons in Syria," the observatory said. It said the research center was reportedly used for developing weapons, including short- and medium-range precision missiles and drones.However, the reality is that these weapons program facilities have been targeted by Israel going back many years, in order to degrade the Syrian Army's capabilities, also in the wake of Western allegations that Assad forces had deployed chemical weapons against 'rebel' strongholds.

Report: Israeli Commandos Conducted Ground Raid in Syria - Israeli commandos dropped into Syria from helicopters on Sunday and conducted a raid against an alleged missile production site, The New York Times reported on Thursday, citing US and other Western officials.Syrian media reported heavy Israeli airstrikes in Syria on Sunday, which is when the officials said the raid occurred. Syria’s news agency SANA reported 18 people were killed in the strikes, while a pro-opposition war monitor put the death toll at 25.The sources speaking to the Times said airstrikes were involved in the attack on the Scientific Studies and Research Center near Maysaf, Syria. They claimed Israeli troops entered the alleged missile production facility, obtained information from the site, and destroyed it.Axios reported that the Biden administration was briefed on the planbefore the raid and did not oppose it. Sources claimed to Axios that the facility was built by Iran in coordination with Hezbollah and Syria.Israel has not publicly acknowledged the raid, reportedly because it doesn’t want to provoke retaliation. Israel has been bombing Syria with impunity for years and rarely acknowledges its strikes in the country.The Syrian side has not confirmed the raid. Israeli reports alleged that Iranians were captured in the operation, but Iranian officials denied those claims. “No Iranian forces have been present in Syria in the area mentioned by the Zionist media, and this area is where the Syrian army forces are present, the source said,” Iran’s MEHR news agency reported, citing a source. “Accordingly, the claim of the Zionist media about harming the Iranian forces or capturing them is completely false and baseless.”

Israel Strikes Central Syria, Killing at Least Five, Wounding 19 - Israeli warplanes were reported to have carried out at least 15 airstrikesagainst central Syria, with the deadliest attacks centered around the city of Masyaf, which is west of Hama. Syrian state media is reporting that at least five people were killed and 19 wounded.State media in Syria also reported that their air defenses were activated against the strikes in Hama Province, and that firefighting forces are active trying to extinguish the fires caused by the attacks.It still isn’t clear what was being targeted by the Israelis, and there has been no official Israeli statement on the matter. The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, which often functions as a mouthpiece for the opposition in Syria, said that one of the strikes had targeted a scientific research center in Masyaf.It isn’t a foregone conclusion that Israel was targeting anything specifically serious in Syria, as they have been carrying out airstrikes in Syria intermittently for years, and often the attacks show no rhyme nor reason as to what is being targeted.There were other Israeli attacks reported elsewhere in the Hama Province, as well as strike near Damascus and the coastal city of Tartus. Hospital officials suggested that the death toll may rise in the strikes, as some of the wounded are in serious condition.

At Least 25 Killed, Scores Wounded in Intense Israeli Attacks on Central Syria - On Sunday night Israel carried out a flurry of airstrikes against central Syria, killing numerous people. The attacks were much more intense than initially reported, and the death toll continues to climb. It is now reported that Israel killed at least 25 people and wounded more than 40, with the attacks centering on the Syrian Military Scientific Studies and Research Center in Masyaf. Among those killed were at least four soldiers and intelligence personal, and five civilians. The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, which often speaks for opposition groups, says the Masyaf site is used for work on precision missiles and drones.As usual, the Israeli Defense Forces has refused to comment on the attacks, saying it does not comment on reports that emerge in foreign media. In 2022, however, Israel’s Benny Gantz claimed that the site was being used by Syria to produce advanced missiles for its proxies.Israeli frequently targets Syria, but this attack was larger scale and more violent. In addition to the strikes on the Masyaf facility, attacks also caused a substantial fire in nearby wooded areas.In addition to Masyaf, strikes hit in and around Damascus, and elsewhere in the Hama Province. Explosions were reported in the coastal city of Tartus, though it appears this was related to Syria’s air defense systems being activated in an attempt to intercept Israeli missiles.Masyaf’s hospital reports many wounded have been taken there for treatment. The exact number of the injured keeps rising, including both those wounded directly in the strikes and those wounded by ensuing shrapnel. As several people are reportedly in serious condition, the death toll may continue to rise.

Israel kills humanitarian workers, children and displaced people in spree of war crimes - An Israeli attack on al-Jaouni school in Nuseirat, Gaza, on Wednesday killed 18 people, including 6 workers for the United Nations Palestinian relief agency UNRWA. More were injured, including children. A statement by the agency detailed the flagrant criminality of the Israel Defense Forces:Six UNRWA colleagues killed today when two airstrikes hit a school and its surroundings in Nuseirat in the middle areas. This is the highest death toll among our staff in a single incident. Among those killed was the manager of the UNRWA shelter and other team members providing assistance to displaced people…This school has been hit five times since the war began. It is home to around 12,000 displaced people, mainly women and children. No one is safe in Gaza No one is spared.Head of UNRWA Philippe Lazzarini explained, “Humanitarian staff, premises and operations have been blatantly and unabatedly disregarded since the beginning of the war.” UN Secretary-General António Guterres demanded a stop to “these dramatic violations of international humanitarian law.”Various imperialist officials let out some crocodile tears. UK Foreign Secretary David Lammy posted, “Reports of six UNRWA staff members being killed in an Israeli strike are appalling. My thoughts are with their families and all those who continue to carry out lifesaving work. Aid workers must be able to do their jobs safely.”Lammy had recently excluded parts for F-35 fighter jets responsible for such strikes from a pitifully small set of restrictions on British arms sales to Israel.The most openly filthy response came from US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken, who told reporters, “We need to see humanitarian sites protected, and that’s something that we continue to raise with Israel,” but added in justification of Israel’s war crime, “We continue to see Hamas hiding in, taking over, and otherwise using these sites from which to conduct its operations.”His comment echoed the lying claim made by the IDF that al-Jaouni had been “formerly used” as a school but turned into “a Hamas command and control complex” with “many of the names [of the victims of the attack] published on social media and news channels belong[ing] to Hamas terrorists.”The barely disguised reality is that Israel considers humanitarian workers “terrorists” and enemy combatants, working against its war aims of the extermination and expulsion of the Palestinian people. It made this clear in January with its unsubstantiated claims of extensive Hamas involvement in UNRWA. Israel’s imperialist powers gave the green light by immediately suspending funding, still not resumed by the United States—formerly by far its largest funder.At least 220 UNRWA staff have been killed since Israel launched its genocidal war, among around 300 humanitarian workers in total. More than 70 percent of the agency’s schools have been bombed, often multiple times—nearly all of which were being used as humanitarian shelters. In just the last six weeks, 16 schools have been hit.This is part of a deliberate plan to kill millions of people by starvation and disease. Sam Rose, a senior deputy director of UNRWA told the press Thursday, “We estimate that over a million Gazans will go without food in September. Over half the medicines in our health centres are running low, as is chlorine for water purification and other basic supplies.”Amed Khan, founder of the Elpida relief organisation, pointed to UN data showing how the number of aid trucks entering Gaza had fallen from 100 a day in July (a fraction of the 5-600 the UN says is needed) to around 50 in August. Just 147 trucks have entered in the whole of September. All aid groups cite restrictions and “inspections” imposed by the Israeli military as the reason.Effectively salting the earth, the IDF has meanwhile “decimated” Gaza’s agricultural assets—96 percent of farms, orchards, irrigation systems, machinery and storage facilities—according to the UN Trade and Development agency.

UN report exposes Israel’s imperialist-backed “intentional starvation campaign against the Palestinian people” A report by United Nations Special Rapporteur on the Right to Food Michael Fakhri has indicted Israel for using starvation as a weapon of war to exterminate the Palestinian people and seize their land. The document provides evidence of the genocidal intent of the Zionist regime and the complicity of the imperialist powers in war crimes unprecedented since World War II.Circulated to the UN General Assembly last Thursday, Fakhri’s report accused Israel of “deliberate starvation” and a “starvation campaign” that includes Gaza’s 2.3 million population and Palestinians in the West Bank. He wrote,Israel made its intentions to starve everyone in Gaza explicit, implemented its plans and predictably created a famine throughout Gaza. Tracking the geography of Israel’s starvation tactics alongside Israeli officials’ statements confirms its intent. Israel opened with a total siege that weakened all Palestinians in Gaza. Then, Israel used starvation to induce forcible transfer, harm and death against people in the north, pushing people into the south, only to starve, bombard and kill people in newly created refugee camps in the south.Fakhri pointed out in a social media post accompanying his report, “In Gaza, malnutrition, famine, and disease are killing more people than bombs and bullets.” This statement is backed up by the estimate published in The Lancet in July that 186,000 Palestinians have died due to Israel’s onslaught, far more than the approximately 41,000 shown in official Palestinian statistics.Quoting in part from the 1948 Convention on the Prevention and Punishment of Genocide, which was adopted in the shadow of the Nazis’ Holocaust of European Jewry, the report notes, “The Special Rapporteur highlights how Israel has used starvation with the intent to destroy, in whole or in part, the Palestinian people by ‘(b) Causing serious bodily or mental harm to Palestinian people; (c) Deliberately inflicting on the Palestinian people conditions of life calculated to bring about their physical destruction in whole or in part’.”It also addresses the complicity of the imperialist powers, remarking, perpetrators of starvation are usually supported by foreign States and corporations, making those third parties complicit in starvation. For example, in Gaza, third-party countries and businesses are not only responsible for the illegal supply of weapons for Israel’s starvation campaign and genocide, but businesses have been complicit for years in the illegal destruction of the Palestinian food and water systems, and the illegal settlements of Palestinian territories.In a damning passage underscoring that the political leaders of the United States and its European imperialist allies should be in the dock alongside Netanyahu in a future war crimes trial, Fakri writes, Prior to 7 October 2023, approximately half of the people in Gaza were food insecure and more than 80 per cent relied on humanitarian aid; the total siege was an immediate catalyst for starvation. Coupled with repeated dehumanizing statements and calls for the total annihilation of Gaza by Israeli officials, Israel’s starvation campaign fulfilled the actus reus [criminal act] and mens rea [criminal intent] of the Convention on the Prevention and Punishment of the Crime of Genocide and thereby triggered all States’ obligation to prevent genocide.Washington and its European allies did not merely fail to meet their obligation to prevent genocide but massively stepped up their supply of high-powered weaponry to the Zionist regime. At home, all opponents of the genocide who sought to draw attention to the world historic crimes perpetrated in Gaza and the complicity of the imperialist powers were subject to a vicious campaign of state-orchestrated persecution and intimidation.Fakhri’s report has largely been buried in the American and European media. To the extent that rampant starvation, spread of deadly diseases and absence of healthcare and other basic services receive any attention, it is from the standpoint of claiming that the Palestinians confront a humanitarian crisis that is the unfortunate byproduct of Israel’s war of “self-defence” against Hamas. The report provides a refutation of this absurdity when it notes,The world produces enough food to feed 1.5 times the current population, and yet prevalence of hunger, malnutrition and famine are on the rise. Hunger and famine are not production problems, they are always caused by acts and omissions which deny people access to food. Famines are most often triggered by conflict, economic shocks and drought. But these triggers reflect underlying social relationships based on dependency and extraction. Ultimately, the concentration of power and absence of accountability in food systems increases the risk of famine.Famines should therefore always be understood as a political problem; they are human-made and are always the result of one group starving another.The “acts and omissions” by Israel and its imperialist backers that have created famine and misery in Gaza are comparable with the inhuman crimes of the Nazi regime during World War II. The Nazis’ Hunger Plan deliberately set out to seize food from the Soviet population for German soldiers and the population so as to facilitate the mass extermination of Soviet citizens, thereby establishing “lebensraum” in the East. It played a major role in the more than 27 million Soviet civilians believed to have lost their lives during the Nazi war of annihilation.

Eyewitness report from the West Bank: “The Israeli army is now commencing major military operations to drive us out” The World Socialist Web Site spoke at the weekend with Jassir Hamdan (name changed), who is currently in the West Bank. He has lived in Germany for many years and is visiting his family in Nablus. He spoke with Dietmar Gaisenkersting.

• Dietmar Gaisenkersting: Our appointment on Thursday was cancelled because you had to go to your in-laws. What had happened?
• Jassir Hamdan: I had traveled with my wife to my in-laws, who live on the other side of the city of Nablus after Israeli soldiers suddenly invaded the city with their vehicles and caused absolute chaos.The soldiers were looking for certain people, shooting, killing people and photographing everything. Most of the time you do not know what they want or what they are up to. That is what happened to my in-laws in my neighbourhood on Thursday. They blocked a road for a few hours and everyone was scared. It is dangerous to drive a private car because the Israeli soldiers shoot indiscriminately. That is why everyone immediately tries to get to safety, to hide until the soldiers leave again. Only then is it reasonably safe to return home.Nablus is a relatively large city, the second largest in Palestine. In eastern Nablus, where my parents-in-law live, there are two refugee camps nearby, Balata and Askar. That is why the Israelis always cause so many problems on that side of the city, because the fighters are concentrated on that side of the city, and also in the old town of Nablus.
• DG: What kind of fighters are they?
• JH: They are largely organised under Hamas, from the military wing of Fatah and, to a lesser extent, from Islamic Jihad. These are fighters who are fighting against the occupation, against the settlers, against the violence of the Israelis. However, they are relatively isolated as small groups in each town, because the West Bank is divided into many small, separate islands by the Israeli settlements. Persecuted both by the Israeli army and the Palestinian Authority, it is difficult for them to move around the country, which is why it is so difficult to organise.Very few of them have homemade explosives, as in Jenin. There they blew up Israeli military vehicles. That was the reason for this ten-day operation in Jenin. The Israelis killed many people in the process, but also before and after the operation.
• DG: What role does the Palestinian Authority [under President Mahmoud Abbas] play in this? Is it acting against Israel?
• JH: No, you can forget about them. I have spoken to so many acquaintances, friends and relatives who live here. No one has any confidence in the Palestinian Authority. They are now playing an absolutely treacherous role. They simply do what the Israelis want and they help the Israelis. For example, the fighters in the old city of Nablus have erected many umbrellas on the roofs so that Israeli drones and aeroplanes cannot observe the streets.The Palestinian Authority regularly destroys these screens. And we know for a fact that a few hours later, or the next day at the latest, Israeli soldiers march in to kill the fighters. This is part of their co-operation with the Israeli army, and therefore we have no faith in the corrupt, treacherous Palestinian Authority.
• DG: What is the situation in the West Bank, what can you tell us?
• JH: The Israeli troops were in Jenin for around ten days. They killed many people there and completely destroyed the entire infrastructure of the city. That is in the northern regions, near Nablus. In the central region, around Ramallah, the situation is somewhat calmer because the Palestinian Authority and the Israelis have more power there and they control and suppress everything. There are therefore no fighters there, just as there are none in Jerusalem.In the southern cities of the West Bank, for example in Hebron, we have had a few surprises in the last two or three weeks. Residents there got hold of weapons and killed a few Israeli settlers and that has made the whole situation even more difficult. How can I describe it? The Israelis are punishing the entire population, not just a few people or the fighters, but the entire population. This city is like a big prison.The villages around each town are always under threat from settlers, who have military support from the Israeli army. The settlers are destroying olive trees, fields, people are being attacked.And perhaps you heard what happened the day before yesterday. The Israeli army killed the American-Turkish peace activist Aysenur Ezgi Eygi near Nablus with a targeted shot to the head. This was in a village called Beita, where Israeli settlers have simply seized large pieces of land from the people living there and expelled the farmers. There have been very many problems and direct conflict with the settlers for several years. But now the settlers are acting even more aggressively because they have been given the green light by the Israeli army and the Israeli government.The army is now starting major military operations to drive people out of the West Bank to Jordan. Israeli politicians are constantly talking about a ‘substitute solution’ for the Palestinians in Jordan. They want to take the whole country away from us.Jordanian and other Arab politicians say that they will not accept such a thing. But we also know that these Arab regimes and governments, especially in Jordan, are dependent on American and Western governments. They really don’t want to do anything about it.

Philippine and Chinese vessels repeatedly collide in the South China SeaOver the past month, Philippine and Chinese Coast Guard vessels have repeatedly collided with each other in the disputed waters of the South China Sea, bringing tensions between the countries to a knife’s edge. Both sides claim the other deliberately rammed them; neither shows any sign of backing down. Washington has secretly been directly involved militarily in each of the incidents. The collisions occur at the Sabina Shoal, a reef and lagoon 75 nautical miles west of Palawan Island in the Philippines, and deemed within the exclusive economic zone (EEZ) of the Philippines. The Second Thomas Shoal, about 20 nautical miles due west of Sabina, had been the site of confrontations between the Philippines and China in June and early July, but Manila and Beijing concluded a temporary deal that would decrease tensions during resupply missions to Philippine troops stationed there. Within weeks of this deal, confrontation erupted at Sabina Shoal, after tensions had been building there for months, in the background to the Second Thomas Shoal events. In April, the Philippines claimed that China was engaged in an island reclamation project, dredging coral and sand around the Sabina Shoal to construct a habitable facility there. Manila deployed its Coast Guard flagship, BRP Teresa Magbanua, to counter these alleged activities. Beijing countered that it was concerned that Manila intended to establish the Teresa Magbanua as a permanent military base at the Sabina Shoal, perhaps even running it aground there in the same way that the Philippines had done with the BRP Sierra Madre on the Second Thomas Shoal in 1999. Permanent occupation of disputed features would violate bilateral agreements recently concluded between China and the Philippines, Beijing claimed. In early May, the Philippine Coast Guard issued a statement claiming that its operation to block Chinese vessels had been successful and would continue. By early June, several vessels of the Chinese and Philippine Coast Guard fleets were sailing in close confrontation with each other around the Sabina Shoal. A team of researchers from the University of the Philippines Institute of Biology completed an onsite investigation of the Sabina Shoal on June 8 and concluded that the evidence there did not support the claim that China was engaged in reclamation activity. This finding by Philippine scientists, brought out to the reef by the Philippine Coast Guard, was a blow to the claims being made by the Philippine military. On June 12, Philippine Independence Day, Manila staged a provocative sail through at Sabina Shoal, in close proximity to the Chinese vessels, and with much media fanfare. No confrontation occurred. Tensions escalated dramatically, when on August 19, Chinese Coast Guard vessels and two Philippine Coast Guard patrol boats collided. Manila claimed that China “rammed” its vessels. On August 25, Manila sent a Bureau of Fisheries vessel, loaded with journalists, on a “resupply” mission to fishermen at the Sabina Shoal. The Chinese Coast Guard blasted the boat with water cannons, when the ships came within meters of each other. The Teresa Magbanua, deployed to the Sabina Shoal since April, was running low on supplies, Manila claimed, and they sent Coast Guard resupply missions, which the Chinese Coast Guard blocked. On August 28, the Philippines resupplied the Teresa Magbanua by helicopter. China warned that such resupplies were dangerous and could lead to an aerial incident. On August 31, the Teresa Magbanua and a Chinese Coast Guard vessel again collided. Each side claimed the other had rammed it. The tensions show no signs of diminishing. Among the Chinese Coast Guard vessels in the area are two tugboats. The Global Times, a Chinese paper closely associated with the People’s Liberation Army (PLA), published an editorial on September 2 that stated that one of China’s possible options was using these tugboats to tow the Teresa Magbanua out of the vicinity. The ramming incidents between the Philippines and China are becoming alarmingly common. Sailors have suffered injuries in the process. Both sides blame the other, but the truth of the matter is that in the vast waters of the South China Sea, and despite repeated warnings, they are sailing their vessels within meters of each other. They are playing chicken with coast guard vessels.

Australian Labor government’s international student cuts hit thousands of university jobs - Details were finally released late last week pointing to how far Labor Prime Minister Anthony Albanese’s government has lined up with the right-wing Liberal-National Coalition to slash the number of international student enrolments, triggering the loss of thousands of jobs throughout the higher education sector. Students at the University of Adelaide [Photo: University of Adelaide] As warned by the Western Sydney University (WSU) Rank-and File Committee in announcing tomorrow evening’s online forum: “Both Labor and the Coalition are engaged in reactionary nationalism. They are trying to blame international students, like refugees and immigrants more broadly, for the worsening housing and cost-of-living crisis, and deteriorating living conditions affecting millions of working-class households.” Federal Department of Education figures, only made public on Friday evening, show that 15 universities have had their numbers slashed for 2025, particularly targeting those with the highest numbers of Chinese students. Across the country, enrolments will be cut overall by more than 50,000, to 145,000, for publicly-funded universities, with severely damaging consequences. Among the hardest hit are the University of Sydney and the University of Melbourne, both composed of more than 40 percent international students—many of them from China. They received 7 percent decreases on their 2023 intakes, making their 2025 caps 11,900 and 9,300 respectively. The Australian National University had its international student allocation reduced by more than 14 percent. Murdoch University in Perth had its cohort cut by 34 percent to 3,500, down from 5,272 in 2023. This will have a punitive financial impact, forcing universities to axe jobs, programs and courses, and conform strictly with the corporate- and military-related agenda of the Labor government’s Universities Accord, which ties reduced funding to government “mission statements.” In fact, the department’s figures understate the true dimension of the cuts. For example, in an email to staff on Monday, University of Melbourne acting vice chancellor Nicola Phillips said the government’s cap represented an 18 percent reduction of new international student enrolments in 2025, compared to the management’s projection of 11,000 for 2025. Phillips’ email also confirmed the WSU Rank-and-File Committee’s warnings that job cuts are already underway. She declared that while “a great deal of uncertainty” remained about the impact, “belt-tightening” had commenced, including a freeze on filling job vacancies and renewing employment contracts. Similar job axes are being wielded at the University of Sydney, and throughout the tertiary education sector. Among the other universities already announcing such measures are Federation, Tasmania, La Trobe and Wollongong. Many more casual jobs are being eliminated. The government’s caps are not “random” or “arbitrary” as some university vice chancellors have complained. There is a definite agenda. Under the flimsy disguise of trying to shift students to regional universities, the so-called Go8 elite universities, which predominantly attract Chinese students, have had their enrolments slashed from this year by 22,000 or 27 percent. This targeting has been spelt out by the government through the corporate media. The Australian reported on August 20: “Wealthy universities that profit from enrolling too many Chinese students will be penalised… The government intends to reward universities that diversify their student base away from Chinese students, who dominate enrolments.” While 23 universities will be permitted to enroll more international students than they had in 2023, these numbers are small, just a few hundred additional students. Some institutions are unlikely to fill their allocation, because their locations and course offerings are less attractive to overseas students. Moreover, these universities have been hurt already by the government more than doubling student visa application fees from $710 to $1,600, slowing visa processing and imposing harsher English language requirements and “genuine student” tests. Universities with more working-class enrolments have been affected as well. Despite being composed of less than 35 percent international students, Melbourne’s Victoria University and the University of Wollongong have had harsher caps imposed of -11 percent and -8 percent, bringing them down to 3,600 and 3,700 respectively. Federation University, regional Victoria’s largest educational institution, will be permitted to take just 1,100 overseas students from 2025, compared with 2023’s intake of 2,306. Another regional institution, Charles Sturt University, received an increase to 1,000 students, up from less than 200 in 2023, but that is a 66 percent decrease on its 2019 intake, before the impact of visa rejections and delays. Hundreds of educators and other staff are also being laid off or faced with closure in private colleges. The attack on international students forms part of Labor’s plans to halve overseas migration to 235,000 annually for the next three years. This is a bipartisan offensive. The Coalition has vowed to cut annual net migration further, to 160,000, which could reduce student inflows to less than 15,000. University staff and students must oppose this poisonous xenophobia, which also feeds anti-China war-mongering, and defend the basic rights of workers and young people to live, work and study wherever they choose. This is essential to forge an international movement against war and austerity and the underlying capitalist profit system itself. The Albanese government’s Universities Accord blueprint ties enrolments, as well as research funding, to the vocational demands of employers and the building of a war economy. This includes military preparations such as the AUKUS nuclear submarines and weapons program, for a US-led war against China. While starving the universities of funds, the government is pouring hundreds of billions of dollars into military spending and backing the US-armed Israeli genocide in Gaza and the US-NATO war against Russia in Ukraine. International students have been treated as cash cows, paying exorbitant fees. That is the direct result of the higher education “revolution” imposed by the Rudd and Gillard Labor governments of 2007 to 2013, on top of chronic under-funding. This “revolution” created a corporate-style market, which forced universities to fight each other for international enrolments. That led to the sector becoming Australian capitalism’s fourth largest export earner behind iron ore, gas and coal, generating revenues of some $50 billion a year.

The banning of X/Twitter in Brazil and the authoritarian drive of the capitalist state -- In an unprecedented political move, Brazilian Supreme Court (STF) judge Alexandre de Moraes announced a week ago the indefinite suspension of X/Twitter throughout Brazil. Overnight, millions of people found themselves blocked from one of their main sources of information and communication with an international audience. The decision was the product of an escalating dispute between the STF and X’s fascistic CEO, Elon Musk. In April, X became the target of the “inquiry into digital militias and fake news” conducted by the STF, which demanded that the platform remove the user accounts of individuals accused of involvement in the coup attempt promoted by former president Jair Bolsonaro and high-ranking figures in the Armed Forces. After refusing to comply with the court’s orders, in mid-August X fired all its employees and closed down its activities in Brazil. Thus, the company deliberately removed itself from any legal representation through which it could be summoned under Brazilian law. The STF responded by ordering, via a post on its official X account, that the company appoint an official representative and, if not, that internet providers in the country immediately block access to the site. Without any prior warning, people who use X to access news, share information and organize meetings and events found the site inaccessible. On Monday, the five judges of the STF unanimously supported Moraes’ decision. The suspension imposed by the STF is an act of mass censorship unprecedented in Brazil since the end of the 1964-85 dictatorial regime. X is one of the most popular platforms in the country. According to Datareportal, at the beginning of 2024 there were 22.1 million X users in the country. The sinister implication of the Supreme Court’s decision was pointed out in a comment by UOL columnist Josias de Souza: “If these networks, like Bluesky, start to host messages on their platform that the Supreme Court considers to be coup-plotting, offensive to the democratic rule of law, then we will reach the same point.” In other words, the decision sets a grave precedent for the suppression of all social media. The suspension of X/Twitter is just the newest stage in an advanced campaign by the Brazilian state to censor the internet. Fraudulently presented as a means of defending “democracy” and fighting the rise of fascism, the censorship mechanisms being forged with the support of the Workers Party government and its pseudo-left satellites are essentially aimed against the working class. Over the last five years, the STF led by Moraes has consistently advanced its restrictive measures against social media, claiming that they “have been instrumentalized to attack democracy, to attack the rule of law,” as the minister stated in a recent lecture at Mackenzie University. Moraes, revered by President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and bourgeois public opinion as the “savior of democracy” in Brazil, actually has a consistently reactionary record linked to the state repressive apparatus. The same sections of the bourgeoisie that rallied around Lula’s candidacy have entrusted immense powers in Moraes’ hands. Although they were initially employed against Bolsonaro’s political allies, who actively planned a coup d’état, Moraes’ authoritarian measures have gone much further. Individuals and political groups were targeted by the “fake news inquiry” simply for expressing criticism of the Brazilian state, which was absurdly equated with plotting a coup. In June 2022, Moraes ordered the blocking of all the accounts of the Workers’ Cause Party (PCO) after the party criticized the anti-democratic nature of the STF. The authoritarian escalation of the Brazilian state under the figure of Moraes was not only accepted, but fervently encouraged by the pseudo-left, particularly the Socialism and Freedom Party (PSOL). In 2018, during the elections in which Bolsonaro was victorious, the PSOL demanded that the STF block WhatsApp (the most widely used messaging app in Brazil) under the pretext of curbing the spread of “fake news.”

Draghi Says Europe In Existential Danger Without Massive New Spending And Joint Debt; Germany Immediately Says "Nein" -It has been a while since we were reminded that without the ECB's constant (and endless) backstop, the Frankenstein monster that is the European (fiscal Dis)Union, is doomed. Well, this morning, former ECB President Mario Draghi reminded us of just that when hecalled on the EU to invest as much as €800 billion ($884 billion) extra a year and commit to the regular issuance of common bonds to make the bloc more competitive with China and the US. In his long-awaited report on European Union competitiveness (link here), Draghi urged Europe to "develop its advanced technologies" (unclear what those are: maybe cultural appropriation from integrating 10 million Muslim immigrants in the past decade), create a plan to meet its climate targets and boost defense and security of critical raw materials, labeling the task “an existential challenge” because "if Europe cannot become more productive, we will be forced to choose. We will not be able to become, at once, a leader in new technologies, a beacon of climate responsibility and an independent player on the world stage. We will not be able to finance our social model. We will have to scale back some, if not all, of our ambitions."To achieve his proposed goal, Draghi said that Europe would need to boost investment by about 5 percentage points of the bloc’s GDP in order to transform its economy so that it can remain competitive. Needless to say, this is not only unprecedented - for comparison, the additional investments provided by the Marshall Plan between 1948-51 amounted to around 1-2% of GDP annually - it will simply not happen without a huge global crisis which will make the panicked reaction to the covid pandemic pale by comparison.In short, Europe is cooked unless it unleashes the biggest spending spree in its history, surpassing even the post WWII Marshall Plan, one that would also require pretty much constant QE (to monetize all the newly issued debt) and send gold and crypto to unprecedented highs.