Weak October jobs report gives Fed ammo for rate cut -- A weak jobs report has given the Federal Reserve a clear runway to cut interest rates next week — if it wants to. Initial employment data shows virtually no job growth in October. With the Federal Reserve's focus on the labor market, the reading could seal the deal for a November rate cut.
Fed rate cut draws applause—and caution—from bankers --It's been a few weeks since the U.S. central bank lowered its benchmark interest rate by 50 basis points, its first cut in more than four years, and bankers are optimistic about the prospect of a strong fourth quarter as a result. Executives say now that the ball is rolling, the Federal Reserve needs to be careful with the pace of future reductions. Bank executives and industry advocates welcomed the Federal Reserve's interest rate reduction but warned that careful planning for future drops is necessary to avoid creating market turmoil.
September headline inflation gives Fed flexibility on raising rates - Prices grew moderately last month according to the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation, giving the central bank flexibility as it awaits Friday's jobs report.Core PCE held steady as service costs rose, but the overall report maintains the central bank's flexibility ahead of next week's Federal Open Market Committee meeting.
New PCE reading not ideal for Fed but won't upend rate cut expectations --The Federal Reserve may not have received the inflation data it wanted Thursday, but some economists said a new reading from the Fed's preferred pricing gauge probably keeps the central bank on track for a 25 basis point rate cut at its policy meeting next week. Quincy Krosby, chief global strategist for LPL Financial, said she still expects a small rate reduction to be announced Nov. 7 while emphasizing that the mixed inflation picture offered Thursday suggests "that the Fed is still on a bumpy course in this last mile to quell inflation and declare victory." Other economists who also expect a small cut in November acknowledged there could be a debate among policymakers about whether to pause in November. It will be up to Fed Chair Jerome Powell to maintain a rate-cutting consensus, said one Fed watcher. "We look for Fed Chair Powell to once again be the voice of reason corralling the FOMC to prudently ease monetary policy next week," said EY chief economist Gregory Daco. The latest reading from the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index showed inflation rose 2.1% during the month of September, compared with 2.3% in August — within shouting distance of the Fed’s 2% goal. But the Fed favors looking at inflation on a "core" basis, which excludes volatile food and energy prices. On that metric, inflation clocked in at 2.7%, holding the same level as August. That was slightly higher than expectations of a slight cooling to 2.6%. Month over month, core prices were a little hotter than the previous month, up 0.3% vs 0.2%, though matching expectations. The reading on PCE comes after a separate reading on inflation, known as the Consumer Price Index, was warmer than expected during the month of September. The new data could offer more fodder for an argument being made by hawkish members of the Fed's Federal Open Market Committee to pursue any future cuts gradually and cautiously. Core PCE, after all, has now held at 2.7% for three months in a row, as opposed to dropping. Next week “the Fed will need to acknowledge that with still resilient consumer spending, higher wages from a series of successful strikes, and a solid labor market, they will need to adopt the 'gradual' approach towards lowering rates until there's a comfort level within the FOMC that inflation isn't poised to continue edging higher," Krosby said.
Quarterly Refunding: Treasury To Hold Debt Sales Steady For "At Least Several Quarters" On Monday, the US Treasury published its debt sources and uses estimates for the coming quarter, it noted that it expects slightly less in calendar Q4 offset by a borrowing burst in Q1 2025, when the Treasury expects to issue $823 billion in debt , up from $546 billion in Q4, and a record nominal amount for that quarter. Fast forward to today when this morning, the Treasury released its latest Quarterly Refunding Announcement, which unlike previous QRAs was a somewhat more subdued affair, with no notable surprises, after it left its quarterly auctions of longer-term debt unchanged as expected, and reiterated its guidance that sizes aren’t expected to be increased “for at least the next several quarters.” The Treasury said it will sell $125 billion of securities at next week’s quarterly refunding auctions, in line with expectations. The gross issuance will refund approximately $116.4 billion of treasurys, and raise new cash from private investors of approximately $8.6 billion. The securities are:
- A 3-year note in the amount of $58 billion, unchanged from last month and unchanged from the last refunding
- A 10-year note in the amount of $42 billion, up $3 billion from last month and unchanged from the last refunding
- A 30-year bond in the amount of $25 billion, also up $2 billion from last month and unchanged from the last refunding
With regard to Treasury Inflation Protected Securities, or TIPS, the department again made some modest increases as it works to maintain a stable share of these securities relative to overall debt outstanding. Specifically, it bumped the auction sizes of two TIPS issues: December’s 5-year re-opening and the new 10-year issue, which was a bit more than expected. According to the Treasury, it "believes it would be prudent to continue with incremental increases to TIPS auction sizes in order to maintain a stable share of TIPS as a percentage of total marketable debt outstanding."Over the November 2024 to January 2025 quarter, Treasury plans to maintain the November 10-year TIPS reopening auction size at $17 billion, increase the December 5-year TIPS reopening auction size by $1 billion to $22 billion, and increase the January 10-year TIPS new issue auction size by $1 billion to $20 billion. The table below summarizes the sizes for the August to October 2024 quarter and the anticipated auction sizes for the November 2024 to January 2025 quarter, including next week's 3/10/30Y refunding:
BEA: Real GDP increased at 2.8% Annualized Rate in Q3 --From the BEA: Gross Domestic Product, Third Quarter 2024 (Advance Estimate) Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 2.8 percent in the third quarter of 2024, according to the "advance" estimate released by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the second quarter, real GDP increased 3.0 percent. ... The increase in real GDP primarily reflected increases in consumer spending, exports, and federal government spending. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased. The increase in consumer spending reflected increases in both goods and services. Within goods, the leading contributors were other nondurable goods (led by prescription drugs) and motor vehicles and parts. Within services, the leading contributors were health care (led by outpatient services) as well as food services and accommodations. The increase in exports primarily reflected an increase in goods (led by capital goods, excluding automotive). The increase in federal government spending was led by defense spending. The increase in imports primarily reflected an increase in goods (led by capital goods, excluding automotive). Compared to the second quarter, the deceleration in real GDP in the third quarter primarily reflected a downturn in private inventory investment and a larger decrease in residential fixed investment. These movements were partly offset by accelerations in exports, consumer spending, and federal government spending. Imports accelerated. PCE increased at a 3.7% annual rate, and residential investment decreased at a 5.1% rate. The advance Q2 GDP report, with 2.8% annualized increase, was below expectations.
US economy grew at a sturdy 2.8 percent pace in third quarter - Yhe final economic growth report before the election showed U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) rising at a strong pace, according to data the Commerce Department released Friday.U.S. GDP grew at an annualized rate of 2.8 percent between July and September, according to the data. GDP growth slowed slightly from a 3 percent rate in the second quarter, but it came in above economists’ expectations of 2.6 percent.Despite the pressure of inflation and high interest rates, the U.S. economy has held strong throughout the year and may be approaching the “soft landing” sought by economists.Ryan Sweet, chief U.S. economist at Oxford Economics, said the GDP report “sends a clear message that the economy is doing well, and inflation is moderating.”The strong GDP growth, “reduces the risk of a sudden and significant increase in layoffs. This increases our conviction in our above-consensus forecast for growth next year,” Sweet said in an analysis.Inflation has now fallen to within striking distance of the Federal Reserve’s 2 percent annual target and the unemployment rate has remained not far above 4 percent.The turning economic tide comes as Vice President Harris and former President Trump are battling over who would be best for the U.S. economy, which polls shows as a top issue among voters.Americans appear to be more confident in the economy with less than a week until Election Day, with both consumer spending and sentiment on the rise.Spending on consumer goods and services rose at an annualized rate of 3.7 percent during the third quarter, up from 2.8 percent in the second and just 1.9 percent in the first.The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index also surged to 108.7 in October from 99.2 in September, the biggest monthly gain since March 2021 and well past analysts’ forecast of 99.3.The Harris campaign is facing pressure from Democrats to focus more on the economy in her closing argument against Trump and sell working class voters on her plans to expand housing, support small business growth and increase tax credits for families with children.Trump has leaned hard into plans to aggressively increase tariffs, extend key provisions of his 2017 tax-cut law and deport millions of immigrants from the U.S. as the pillars of his economic agenda.
US Defense Spending Boosts GDP With Biggest Surge Since Iraq War -- US federal government spending on national defense surged in the third quarter at the fastest pace in more than two decades, helping propel gross domestic product higher ahead of the November election. Defense spending rose at a 14.9% annualized rate in the July-September period, the most since the start of the Second Gulf War in 2003, according to figures published Wednesday by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Overall GDP rose 2.8%. Wars in Ukraine and the Middle East have led to a sharp upturn in US defense spending in recent years, though economists are skeptical that increases of the magnitude registered in the third quarter will last. “The Pentagon has been rushing materiel out to Ukraine and Israel after the extensive delay early in the year, when the foreign aid package was held up in Congress for months,” Stephen Stanley, chief US economist at Santander Capital Markets LLC, said in a note. “I look for this sector to normalize going forward.”The details of the report showed spending on missiles jumped an annualized 26.6%, while outlays on electronics rose 15.8%. Outlays for weapons support services increased at a 25.7% rate, while spending on transportation of materials surged 277%.Congressional approval in late April of the $95 billion national security supplemental funding bill included money for Ukraine, Israel and allies in the Pacific region. At least $30 billion was slated to go toward munitions and weapons systems. The third quarter is also when the Pentagon does most of its contracting for new programs, or ramps up production for existing ones.
This plane has landed safely -- The Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that seasonally adjusted U.S. real GDP grew at a 2.8% annual rate in the third quarter. That’s close to the long-run historical average of 3.1%. With inflation coming down, I think we now can declare that the Fed has achieved the admirable but difficult objective of a “soft landing” — bringing inflation down without tipping the U.S. into recession. Quarterly real GDP growth at an annual rate, 1947:Q2-2024:Q3, with the historical average (3.1%) in blue. Calculated as 400 times the difference in the natural log of real GDP from the previous quarter. The new numbers put the Econbrowser recession indicator index at 2.4%. That’s quite a low number, and signals an unambiguous continuation of the economic expansion that began in 2020:Q3. GDP-based recession indicator index. The plotted value for each date is based solely on the GDP numbers that were publicly available as of one quarter after the indicated date, with 2024:Q2 the last date shown on the graph. Shaded regions represent the NBER’s dates for recessions, which dates were not used in any way in constructing the index. GDP growth was led by strong spending by consumers, who seem to be regaining confidence as employment growth continues strong. Third-quarter GDP was also boosted by a big increase in government spending associated with military assistance to Israel and Ukraine. A surge in imports, which are subtracted from GDP, held GDP growth back. Slower new home construction also subtracted from GDP growth, but not to the degree that we’d see if the Fed had engineered a big housing crunch. Markets also breathed a sigh of relief this week that the military conflict in the Middle East does not look (for now) as if it’s going to lead to a big disruption in oil production or shipping. All this is enough to bring a smile back to the face of our Little Econ Watcher. For now.
Elon Musk, Trump allies say tariff plans could cause economic pain - Top allies and surrogates of former President Donald Trump, including Tesla CEO Elon Musk, are agreeing with economists who say Trump's economic policy plans would raise prices for consumers, but Trump's allies contend the effect would be short-term and would be worth it in the long run.On Tuesday, Musk agreed with a social media post on X, whose author said that the Republican presidential nominee's policy proposals could spark a "severe overreaction in the economy" that would mean "markets will tumble" before getting back to a "sounder footing.""Sounds about right," responded Musk, one of Trump's most high-profile billionaire backers.Dozens of independent economists, Wall Street analysts and researchers have warned that Trump's second-term proposals threaten to swell the federal deficit and reheat inflation.Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democratic nominee, has capitalized on that criticism, branding Trump's tariff proposal and the potential ensuing price hikes the "Trump sales tax."Musk is not the only Trump surrogate who has acknowledged that the former president's economic platform — which includes universal tariffs on imports, with especially high rates on Chinese goods — if enacted, would have the immediate impact of raising consumer prices on imports.Last week, Cantor Fitzgerald CEO Howard Lutnick, a co-chair of the Trump-Vance 2025 transition team, also acknowledged that imposing the kind of tariffs Trump pledges to put on foreign goods would raise prices. "Correct: If I raise the tariff on just this particular idiosyncratic product, yes, right, it will be more expensive," Lutnick said in a Thursday interview on CNBC's "Squawk Box," responding to a question about whether universal tariffs would effectively become a short-term sales tax.Lutnick said higher prices on imports would steer consumers toward buying domestic alternatives, but he noted that strategy would fail for products that the U.S. does not produce."If we don't make that particular product, that [price] will go up," he said. Trump's running mate, Sen. JD Vance, of Ohio, has also nodded to the potential consumer pain of Trump's vision for across-the-board tariffs, though he claimed that it would be worth the possible benefits."Anything that you lose on the tariff from the perspective of the consumer, you gain in higher wages, so you're ultimately much better off," Vance said in an August interview on NBC's "Meet the Press."Howard Lutnick, Chairman and CEO of Cantor Fitzgerald gestures as he speaks during a rally for Republican presidential nominee and former U.S. President Donald Trump at Madison Square Garden, in New York, U.S., October 27, 2024. But the recent comments from people such as Musk and Lutnick also point to an emerging tactic Trump allies are using to deflect those attacks: Accept some immediate pain for eventual gains.In response to CNBC's request for comment on the Trump surrogates' recent remarks, the Trump campaign rejected the notion that his policy proposals would bring short-term pain, and instead claimed his Democratic opponent would be responsible for any economic danger."The only pain facing Americans would be four more years of Kamala's failed economic policies," Trump campaign senior advisor Brian Hughes told CNBC in a statement.Republican National Committee spokesperson Anna Kelly echoed Hughes in another statement: "Harris can't keep her story straight, but the truth is the same: Harris has always opposed tariffs because she can't be trusted to put workers first."
Elon Musk Keeps Saying Trump Will Tank the Economy -- Top economists and assorted financial experts have been sounding the alarm that Donald Trump’s plans for a second presidential term could spike the federal deficit by trillions of dollars, worsen inflation, and, eventually, send the U.S. economy screaming toward a recession (if not an outright depression). Weirdly enough, it appears that Trump’s top campaign operative, Elon Musk, agrees that the candidate’s policies could damage the economy.For the second time in a week, Musk has weirdly implied that Trump will bring economic “hardship” to America, a claim that would be funny if it didn’t seem so likely. The first instance came during a “Telephone Town Hall” hosted on the tech billionaire’s website X, during which Musk said, cryptically: “We have to reduce spending to live within our means. And that necessarily involves some temporary hardship, but it will ensure long-term prosperity.” Musk, who was talking about reducing the national debt when he made the comments, didn’t elaborate on what he was referring to. If that may have spooked some voters, Musk did nothing to assuage their fears when, on Monday, the tech billionaire again seemed to affirm a vision of coming adversity for Americans. Musk did this by replying to a rightwing account on X, the likes of which had written a screed about a coming economic “tumble”:If Trump succeeds in forcing through mass deportations, combined with Elon hacking away at the government, As crazy as it sounds, firing people and reducing the deficit – there will be an initial severe overreaction in the economy – this economy propped up with debt (generating asset bubbles) and artificially suppressed wages (as a result of illegal immigration). Markets will tumble. But when the storm passes and everyone realizes we are on sounder footing, there will be a rapid recovery to a healthier, sustainable economy. History could be made in the coming two years.Musk replied: “sounds about right.” Plenty of economists have warned that Trump’s plans could spell disaster for the U.S. economy. His plans to deport millions of illegal immigrants, give huge tax cuts to the wealthiest Americans, weaken the U.S. dollar, and institute global tariffs, have all been referred to as terrible ideas that could drive up the federal deficit, spur inflation, and cause chaos. Trump advisors’ have espoused plans—like making huge cuts to federal spending and firing tens of thousands of government workers—that would surely spur more chaos. That said, it is thoroughly bizarre to see Musk—a key Trump ally—admit this, whilst in the middle of one of the tightest presidential races in modern history.
Possible Trump Treasury secretary says he’d work with Musk to cut federal spending --Hedge fund founder John Paulson, an ally of former President Trump, said in a new interview that he will work with tech billionaire Elon Musk to “reduce federal spending” if tapped to serve as Treasury secretary in a second Trump administration.Paulson made the remarks in an interview Tuesday with The Wall Street Journal, just days after Musk drew attention for saying he thinks federal spending could be cut by “at least $2 trillion” – without offering specifics on how to do that.In the Journal interview, however, Paulson pointed to potential areas to reduce spending by targeting green energy subsidies created by Democrats’ Inflation Reduction Act. “All of these tax subsidies for solar, for wind, inefficient, uneconomic energy sources. Eliminate that. That brings down spending,” he said, while pushing instead to extend expiring tax cuts enacted as part of Trump’s signature 2017 tax law. Trump has maintained a lead over Vice President Harris on the economy with voters in various polls. However, Harris has scored some competitive marks with experts.Results from a Journal survey released earlier this month showed that economists expected higher inflation, national deficits and interest rates under former Trump’s proposed agendathan under policies proposed by Harris.In the Journal survey, conducted Oct. 4-8, 68 percent of respondents said they think inflation would rise faster under a second Trump term than if Harris were to become president — up 12 percentage points from when the outlet asked in July. Economists were also asked about the potential impact of some of Trump’s proposed tariffs on domestic manufacturing employment. Just less than 60 percent of economists said employment would be lower compared to 16 percent who said it would rise in the coming years. The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget has also estimated the plans proposed by both candidates could increase the national debt by trillions of dollars through 2035. But its latest projections found that Trump’s tax and spending plans could add almost twice as much to the national debt as those brought by Harris.One of the most expensive measures highlighted by the group is an estimated $5.3 trillion price tag attached to Trump’s proposals to extend and modify parts of his 2017 tax law. However, Paulson promoted in the recent interview what he described as “strategic tariffs” and said he’d work to “encourage energy production so we become an energy dominant producer” under Trump. The Journal said he also suggested the former president’s tariff threats could help secure certain concessions, such as preventing Deere & Co. from outsourcing production abroad.
Gaza Ceasefire Talks Resume in Qatar But Progress Not Expected - On Monday, officials from the US, Israel, Egypt, and Qatar resumed talks on a Gaza ceasefire in Doha, but no progress is expected to be made toward a resolution ahead of the US presidential election on November 5.Sources told The New York Times that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is waiting to see who will succeed President Biden before making any diplomatic commitments. He has also made clear he has no intention of ending the genocidal war on Gaza, repeatedly saying he would only agree to a temporary truce that would allow Israel to resume military operations.Hamas’s position has been that any deal must include a permanent ceasefire and the withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza. But Netanyahu has insisted on keeping troops in Gaza, and his demand to maintain control of the Philadelphi Corridor on the Gaza-Egypt border sabotaged the last round of negotiations. Earlier this month, Haaretz reported that the Israeli government wasn’t interested in new ceasefire talks and was instead focused on pursuing the annexation of territory in Gaza. Since then, Israeli forces have killed Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar, prompting the US to ask for new truce talks.While Israel agreed to hold new talks, its military operations in Gaza have been relentless. Israeli forces are laying siege to northern Gaza as part of anethnic cleansing campaign following an outline known as the “general’s plan,” which calls for the forcible displacement of Palestinian civilians from the north and the extermination of anyone who stays behind.
Biden Administration Overwhelmed With Reports of Israel Using Weapons To Kill Civilians but Has Not Taken Any Action - The Biden administration has been flooded with nearly 500 reports of US weapons being used by Israel to kill civilians unnecessarily, but no action has been taken, The Washington Post reported on Wednesday.By refusing to act, the State Department is in violation of its policy that was started in August 2023 as a response to concerns over US weapons being used by Saudi Arabia and the UAE to kill civilians in Yemen. The policy, known as the Civilian Harm Incident Response Guidance (CHIRG) process, directs US officials to investigate incidents and recommend action within two months. According to the Post report, not a single of the nearly 500 reports have reached the “action” stage. US officials have said the CHIRG process has become functionally irrelevant because senior officials in the State Department are dismissive of any non-Israeli source.Mike Casey, a former State Department official who resigned in July, said senior State Department officials often dismissed the credibility of Palestinian sources, eyewitness accounts, nongovernmental organizations, the Palestinian Authority, and the United Nations.Sources told the Post that at least one-quarter of the cases had been dismissed in the first of three investigative stages because they were deemed not credible or officials thought US weapons weren’t used. The rest of the cases have reached the “verification stage,” but that has only involved asking Israel about the cases, giving the Israeli government the chance to make excuses for its own crimes.“We ask the [government of Israel] about the cases: Did you forewarn? Why did you hit this school or safe road or safe zone?” a former official said.More than two-thirds of the cases remain unresolved as they are pending a response from the Israeli government. State Department spokesman Matt Miller had made clear throughout the past year that the US has been deferring to Israel when asked about atrocities being committed with US weapons.On Tuesday, Israeli strikes on a residential building in northern Gaza’ Beit Lahia killed at least 109 Palestinians, including more than two dozen children. In response, Miller claimed the US was “deeply concerned” about the “horrifying incident” but only said the US would ask Israel about the attack and didn’t call for an investigation or suggest any US action would be taken. “We have reached out to the government of Israel to ask what happened here,” he said.The US is in violation of multiple foreign assistance laws by continuing to supply weapons to Israel as it intentionally blocks food aid to a starving Palestinian population and slaughters women and children on a daily basis. A group of American healthcare workers who volunteered in Gaza have estimated the US-backed Israeli bombing campaign and siege has killed at least 118,908 Palestinians, including over 60,000 who have starved to death. The US has spent at least $22.76 billion on supporting the genocidal campaign in one year, including $17.9 billion on direct military aid and $4.8 billion on military operations to support Israel in the region.
Bill Clinton defends mass murder of civilians in Gaza genocide - Speaking in Michigan on Monday, Bill Clinton justified the US-Israeli genocide in Gaza, openly advocating the targeting of civilians and collective punishment against non-combatants, both of which are war crimes. “Arab Americans in Michigan think too many people have died,” Clinton said. “People who criticize it are essentially saying ... look how many people you’ve killed in retaliation. So how many is enough for you to kill to punish them for the terrible things they did?” To this, Clinton replied, “What would you do if ... one day they come for you and slaughtered the people in your village, you would say ... I’m not keeping score that way. ... It isn’t how many we’ve had to kill.” Clinton spoke as the Netanyahu government adopted and implemented a plan to systematically starve the population of Gaza, ethnically cleanse the entirety of northern Gaza and massacre everyone who remains. According to official figures, over 43,000 people in Gaza have been killed by Israel since October 7, including 13,000 children, and virtually the entire population has been turned into homeless, starving refugees. Clinton’s defense of the Israeli genocide flagrantly violates both criminal and international law, neither of which allows “revenge” as the justification for the murder of unarmed people. In criminal law, if someone commits a murder in revenge, he will still be prosecuted for murder. The same holds true for international law. In words that seem like a rebuttal to Clinton, the UN commission of inquiry into the war in Gaza declared last month, “The collective punishment of the entire population for the actions of a few” is “a clear violation of IHL [International Humanitarian Law]. The law of “revenge” was, in fact, the policy pursued by Nazi Germany during World War II in response to acts of resistance against its brutal occupation of Europe. After the assassination of leading Nazi Reinhard Heydrich, the Nazis indiscriminately massacred civilians in the Czech village of Lidice. Following a bomb attack on German auxiliary police units in Rome in March 1944, the Nazi occupiers ordered a ratio of 10 civilian deaths for every policeman killed. In what became known as the Ardeatine Caves massacre, they executed 335 Italian civilians, none of whom had any connection with the attack. Continuing his open defense of Israeli war crimes, Clinton declared the numbers of Gaza civilians killed is irrelevant “because Hamas makes sure that they’re shielded by civilians.” He continued, “They’ll force you to kill civilians if you want to defend yourself.” First, Israel has no right to “defend” itself against the population of Palestine, whose land it has illegally occupied in Gaza since 1967. As International Court of Justice Judge Navanethem Pillay declared at a press conference the same day as Clinton spoke, “You have to distinguish” between Israel and Palestine, because “one is an occupier and the other occupied.” Gaza is one of the most densely populated urban areas in the world, into which Israel has dropped the equivalent of multiple nuclear bombs worth of ordnance over the past year. The Netanyahu government has overwhelmingly used massive 2,000-pound bombs in leveling Gaza because maximizing, not minimizing, the death toll is its aim, in line with its strategy of ethnically cleansing Palestine and incorporating it into “greater Israel.”
Pentagon sending more bomber aircraft, warships to Middle East --Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin has ordered more warplanes and Navy ships to the Middle East to maintain U.S. presence in the region as an aircraft carrier strike group is preparing to leave, the Pentagon announced Friday. Austin ordered additional ballistic missile defense destroyers, a fighter squadron and tanker aircraft, and several Air Force B-52 long-range strike bombers to the region, press secretary Maj. Gen. Pat Ryder said in a statement. “These forces will begin to arrive in coming months as the USS ABRAHAM LINCOLN Carrier Strike Group prepares to depart,” he added. Ryder did not say how many American forces will be in the region with the changes, but as many as 43,000 U.S. troops have been there recently. The bulked-up U.S. military stance comes as Israel has shown no sign of relenting in its war with Hamas in the Gaza Strip and a separate conflict against Hezbollah in Lebanon. Israel also launched a retaliatory strike on Iran last week targeting military bases and weapons production. That followed Tehran’s strike on Israel exactly one month ago when it fired a barrage of about 180 missiles at the country. Washington, while pressing for a cease-fire in Gaza and Lebanon, has made little progress on that front ahead of the U.S. presidential election. Two White House officials, Amos Hochstein and Brett McGurk, were in Israel on Thursday to speak with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, but they returned home on Friday with little to show. In the meantime, U.S. officials have repeatedly said it will defend Israel and U.S. personnel and interests in the region, with the Pentagon last month sending roughly 100 American troops to Israel to operate a provided Terminal High Altitude Area Defense system. The additional B-52 bombers are notable as it is the second time within a month that the U.S. has ordered the warplanes to the Middle East, where it uses the aircraft to send a warning to Iran and its proxies. “Secretary Austin continues to make clear that should Iran, its partners, or its proxies use this moment to target American personnel or interests in the region, the United States will take every measure necessary to defend our people,” Ryder said.
Report: US Was Prepared To Rescue Israeli Pilots Attacking Iran If Needed - The US placed a fleet of fighter jets in the Middle East on stand-by to rescue Israeli pilots if their attack on Iran failed, Israel’s Army Radio reported on Sunday.“Israel and the US coordinated a plan to ensure the safe extraction of pilots should the operation have not succeeded,” the report said, according to Turkey’s Anadolu Agency.The report said the US didn’t participate directly in the attack but was prepared to intervene for a rescue mission. “The Americans’ advanced capabilities in the region would allow them to carry out a rescue operation,” it said.The US also supported the attack, which was carried out early Saturday, by pledging to defend Israel from any Iranian retaliation and deploying a THAAD missile system for that purpose. Israeli officials said that around 100 Israeli fighter jets, spy planes, and refueling tankers were involved in the operation. The main fighter jet was the US-made F-35.Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said the US was responsible for the attack since it provided Israel with an “air corridor” for its jets to launch the airstrikes, which killed at least four Iranian soldiers.“The Americans gave the Zionist air force an air corridor, and the defense facilities they sent them before can be considered collaboration with the recent operation. We consider that America’s collaboration with the Zionist entity to create tension in the region is something very clear,” Araghchi said.Iranian officials said the Israeli jets launched the strikes from US-controlled Iraqi airspace. Kataib Hezbollah, an Iraqi Shia militia that’s allied with Iran, has said the US must “pay” for letting the Israeli jets use Iraqi airspace.“America must pay the price for their recklessness in using Iraqi airspace, and this will happen, with God’s help, at the right time and place,” the group said in a statement, according to Rudaw. “They will certainly dare to attack Iraq if they do not pay a heavy price for their aggression.”The US support for the Israeli attack on Iran could lead to attacks on US bases in Iraq and Syria. If Iran chooses to retaliate by launching another missile attack on Israel, the 100 US troops deployed in Israel with the THAAD system could be potential targets.
US Military Says It Killed 35 ISIS Operatives in Syria Airstrikes - US Central Command said in a press release on Wednesday that its forces conducted a series of airstrikes in Syria on October 28 and claimed the operation killed 35 ISIS members. “The strikes targeted multiple ISIS locations in the Syrian desert, targeting multiple ISIS senior leaders,” CENTCOM said. The command claimed there was no indication of civilian casualties. The US has about 900 troops in eastern Syria as part of an illegal military occupation that’s opposed by the Syrian government. The US also backs the Kurdish-led SDF in Syria, giving it control of about one-third of the country’s territory. The US airstrikes in Syria came after a series of US operations against ISIS in Iraq. CENTCOM announced last week that two US troops were injured during a raid against ISIS camps in central Iraq. In Syria and Iraq, ISIS holds no significant territory, and the Iraqi government has said repeatedly that it can handle the remnants of the terror group without US assistance. But the US continues to be involved in operations against ISIS and is refusing to withdraw troops from the country despite a deal that was reached to end the mission of the US-led anti-ISIS coalition. ISIS has claimed significantly more attacks this year than in 2023, as the group has benefited from the destabilization of the region caused by Israel’s onslaught in Gaza and the Israeli attacks on Hezbollah, the Syrian government, and the Iranian military, who are all sworn enemies of ISIS.
Pentagon says 10,000 North Korean troops in Russia - North Korea has sent about 10,000 troops to train in Russia with the expectation they’ll be sent to fight in Ukraine within “the next several weeks,” the Pentagon said Monday. “We believe that the [Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK)] has sent around 10,000 soldiers in total to train in eastern Russia that will probably augment Russian forces near Ukraine over the next several weeks,” deputy press secretary Sabrina Singh told reporters. Singh said a portion of the North Korean soldiers have already moved closer to Ukraine, and U.S. officials believe they are heading to the Kursk border region in Russia, where Ukrainian troops this summer launched an incursion that Kremlin forces have struggled to push back. “It is likely that they are moving in that direction towards Kursk. But I don’t have more details just yet,” Singh said of the North Koreans. NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte earlier Monday confirmed some North Korean military units were already in the Kursk region — calling it a “dangerous expansion” of the conflict — but he did not say how many troops were there. Speaking after South Korean intelligence and military officials visited NATO headquarters in Brussels, Rutte said Pyongyang’s shipment of ammunition and ballistic missiles to Russia is “fueling a major conflict in the heart of Europe.” He also called the deepening military cooperation between Russia and North Korea “a threat to both the Indo-Pacific and Euro-Atlantic security.” The new U.S. estimate of 10,000 troops comes after Washington last week confirmed at least 3,000 North Korean soldiers were undergoing military training at multiple sites in Russia, a disclosure that followed similar intelligence reports from Kyiv and Seoul. And Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on Friday said Moscow plans to deploy North Koreans on the battlefield within days. The deployment means North Korean troops soon could be on the battlefield against Ukrainian forces, adding to Europe’s biggest conflict since World War II. The development is also sure to exacerbate tensions with the West, in the Korean Peninsula and the wider Indo-Pacific region. Singh said should North Korean troops show up on the front lines, there will be no limitations on the use of U.S.-provided weapons on those forces. “If we see DPRK troops moving in and towards the front lines, they are co-belligerents in the war,” Singh said. “This is a calculation that North Korea has to make.”
NATO Chief Says North Korean Troops Are Helping Regain Territory In Russia's Kursk -NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte on Monday has introduced yet another new bombshell claim related to allegations of North Korean troops fighting in Ukraine alongside Russian forces.At a press conference in Brussels, which reportedly followed a private briefing by South Korean intelligence officials, Rutte claimed that there is intelligence confirming that North Korean military units have been deployed to Russia's southwest Kursk region.The Kursk region has been subject of a Ukrainian cross-border offensive which began in early August. It shocked Kremlin leadership, given Ukrainian soldiers were able to hold on to hundreds of kilometers of territory.Part of Kiev's aim appears to have been to distract Russia's military from its operations in Ukraine's east, and divide resources, forcing the Russians to deal with clawing back their own territory.But now the accusation appears to be that Kim Jong Un's North Korean military is assisting in getting Kursk back. Rutte has called it a sign of "growing desperation."."The deepening military cooperation between Russia and North Korea is a threat to both the Indo-Pacific and Euro-Atlantic security," Rutte said at the press conference. "The deployment [of] North Korean troops to Kursk is also a sign of Putin's growing desperation."Butte urged: "NATO calls on Russia and the DPRK to cease these actions immediately."Zelensky's office has once again used alleged North Korean involvement to call for more immediate military help from Western allies. "This is an escalation. Sanctions alone are not enough. We need weapons and a clear plan to prevent North Korea's expanded involvement in the war in Europe," Zelensky's chief of staff Andriy Yermak said."Today, Russia brings in North Korea; next, it could broaden their engagement, and then other autocratic regimes may see that they can get away with this and come to fight against NATO," Yermak added. "The enemy understands strength. Our allies have this strength."
North Korean troops with Russian uniforms, equipment moving toward Ukraine: Pentagon --Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin on Wednesday urged North Korea to withdraw troops from Russia after its forces were observed wearing Kremlin uniforms and carrying Russian equipment en route to the Kursk border region. Speaking at the Pentagon alongside South Korean Defense Minister Kim Yong-hyun, Austin called the deployment “dangerous and destabilizing,” and said he was increasingly concerned that Moscow plans to use the North Korean soldiers to support its fighting near the border with Ukraine.He and Kim both called on Pyongyang to withdraw its troops, which Austin said has the potential of lengthening or broadening the conflict. The U.S. this week assessed at least 10,000 North Koreans were in Russia, with some already in Kursk, while South Korea has put the number at 11,000. Austin would not speculate on when North Korean soldiers could enter the conflict, saying it’s something that the U.S. and its allies would continue to watch and work “to discourage Russia from employing these troops in combat.”Kim, meanwhile, said there’s a “high chance” North Korea is seeking nuclear weapon and intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) technology from Russia in exchange for its troop deployment.“North Korea is very likely to ask for technology transfers in diverse areas including the technologies relating to tactical nuclear weapons, technologies related to their advancement of ICBM, also those regarding reconnaissance satellites and those regarding [submarine technology] as well,” Kim said via a translator. While Kim said he didn’t necessarily believe the North Korean troop deployment would cause war to break out on the Korean Peninsula, any exchanged Kremlin weapons technology could escalate security threats between the two neighbors. Moscow and Pyongyang’s expanding relationship has concerned the U.S. and its allies, as the West fears it could prolong the conflict in Europe and destabilize the Indo-Pacific region.Austin suggested that Russian President Vladimir Putin’s use of the North Koreans “underscores how much trouble he is in” after suffering massive casualties over more than two-years of fighting.The Pentagon chief is expected to continue the conversations on Russia and North Korea on Thursday, when he and Kim are set to meet with Secretary of State Antony Blinken and South Korean Foreign Minister Cho Tae-yul at the State Department.
Zelensky Asked the US for Tomahawk Missiles as Part of 'Victory Plan' Proposal - Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has asked the US for Tomahawk missiles, which are capable of carrying nuclear warheads and have a range of over 1,000 miles, a request that is part of his so-called “victory plan.”Zelensky did not make that part of his plan public, but the request was revealed by an unnamed US official speaking to The New York Times for a report that was published on Tuesday. The report said the idea of giving Ukraine Tomahawk missiles was “totally unfeasible.”“A Tomahawk has a range of 1,500 miles, more than seven times the range of the long-range missile systems called ATACMS that Ukraine got this year. And the United States sent only a limited number of those, senior US officials said,” the report reads.On Wednesday, Zelensky made clear that he was angry over the leak. “And this was confidential information between Ukraine and the White House. How should we understand these messages? So, it means between partners there’s nothing confidential?” he said.Zelensky’s request for Tomahawk missiles is part of his demand for the US to support long-range Ukrainian strikes inside Russia with NATO-provided missiles. At one point, the US appeared poised to back the long-range strikes but ultimately rejected Zelensky’s plea.Four US officials told the Times that Zelensky was “stunned” when President Biden didn’t sign off on the request for long-range strikes in Russia during a meeting they held in September. Russian President Vladimir Putin has made clear that such strikes would risk nuclear war.The issue of Tomahawk missiles is also very sensitive since one of Putin’s main gripes with the US before he launched the invasion of Ukraine was the US establishing Aegis Ashore missile defense systems in Romania and Poland that use MK-41 launchers, which can fit Tomahawk missiles.Any land-based version of the Tomahawk would have been prohibited under the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty, which the US withdrew from in 2019. Since exiting the treaty, the US has developed land-based systems that can fire tomahawks, deployed one to the Philippines, and is planning to send a similar system to Germany by 2026.
Russia Launches New Nuclear Drills Simulating Retaliatory Strikes - Russian President Vladimir Putin announced on Tuesday that Russia was conducting nuclear deterrence drills that involved the firing of missiles from the air, land, and sea.“Today, we are conducting a regular training exercise for our strategic deterrence forces,” Putin said, according to the Kremlin’s website. “This exercise will involve practicing the procedures for officials in managing the use of nuclear weapons, including practical launches of ballistic and cruise missiles.”Russian Defense Minister Andrei Belousov said the drills simulated the “strategic offensive forces launching a massive nuclear strike in response to a nuclear strike by the enemy.” Putin said it was important for Russia’s strategic forces to be in a state of “constant combat readiness” in light of “escalating geopolitical tensions and the emergence of new external threats and risks.” The Russian drills come a few days after NATO concluded its annual nuclear drills, known as Steadfast Noon. The exercises were conducted over Belgium and the Netherlands and in airspace over Denmark, the UK, and the North Sea.“This training activity involved 13 Allied countries, approximately 2,000 military personnel and a variety of more than 60 aircraft, including nuclear-capable jets, bombers, and fighter escorts,” NATO said in a press release announcing the end of the drills.“Refuelling aircraft and planes capable of reconnaissance and electronic warfare also took part in the exercise designed to ensure the strength and credibility of NATO’s nuclear deterrent,” the press release added.The NATO and Russian nuclear drills come amid soaring tensions between the two nuclear-armed powers. Putin recently ordered changes to Russia’s nuclear doctrine to lower the threshold for the use of nuclear weapons in direct response to the US considering supporting long-range strikes inside Russian territory with NATO missiles.
Donald Trump, Kamala Harris' divergent stances on Ukraine and NATO -Former President Trump and Vice President Harris have diverged sharply over how to handle Ukraine and NATO, with Harris pledging to continue strong support of Kyiv and engagement with allies, while Trump touts an isolationist approach. Here is a breakdown of how they have indicated they will tackle two key foreign policy decisions facing the next administration. Trump has pledged to end the war before he takes office in January, should he win the election. He’s offered few details about how he would achieve this, but suggested his friendly relationship with Russian President Vladimir Putin would help. Critics worry any agreement to immediately end the war would likely involve ceding territory to Russia and close the door to Ukraine joining NATO, a hard line for Moscow. The former president has been sharply critical of Ukraine at times, often calling Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky “one of the greatest salesmen” for securing billions of dollars in security aid from Washington. “He should never have let that war start,” Trump said, apparently referring to Zelensky, during an interview with the “PBD Podcast.” ”That war’s a loser.” Zelensky met with Trump when he visited the U.S. in September. Trump told reporters before the meeting that he was honored to meet with the Ukrainian president but also said he has a “very good relationship” with Putin and added of peace talks, “it takes two to tango.” Concerns about Trump’s cozy tied with Putin were amplified by reporting in veteran journalist Bob Woodward’s new book, “War.” Woodward writes that the 45th president, in the midst of the pandemic in 2020, sent COVID-19 tests to Putin at a time when such devices were desperately needed in the U.S., and that Trump has called the Russian leader at least seven times since leaving office. Trump’s selection of Sen. JD Vance (R-Ohio) as his running mate also represented a doubling down on isolationism, worrying Ukraine’s supporters should the Republican ticket win the White House.
Trump Wants US To Stay In NATO, But Others Need To Do More: Vance - The United States would stay in NATO if former president Donald Trump is reelected, said his running mate, Sen. JD Vance (R-Ohio), but he added that other members of the military alliance need to pay their fair share. “Donald Trump wants NATO to be strong. He wants us to remain in NATO,” Vance said on NBC’s “Meet the Press” in an interview aired on Sunday. “But he also wants NATO countries to actually carry their share of the defense burden.” In 2014, in the wake of Russia’s invasion and annexation of Ukraine’s Crimean Peninsula, NATO members each agreed to allocate at least 2 percent of their GDP to defense within a decade. In July 2022, as the Russia-Ukraine conflict escalated into a full-scale war, then-NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg stated that the 2 percent threshold is now “increasingly considered a floor, not a ceiling.” By the end of 2023, however, only 10 of NATO’s 31 members had met the target.Although that number is projected to rise to 23 out of 32 members in 2024 after Sweden joined the fold, nearly one-third of alliance members are still falling short of their commitments.Trump has long criticized European allies whose stated support for the alliance is not matched by sufficient spending. Along the campaign trail, he also highlighted his success in pressuring NATO members to increase their defense expenditure—only five countries were meeting the 2 percent minimum when he assumed office in 2016; that figure grew to nine when he left the White House.In February, at a rally in South Carolina, Trump recalled how he once told the president of a “big” NATO country that he would not protect that country from a Russian invasion if it didn’t pay its “bills.”
Trade Data Reveals Indian Biotech Firm Supplying US AI Chips To Russia -A new analysis of public trade data suggests that Brussels and Washington's efforts to entirely block Moscow from accessing cutting-edge Western technology may have encountered a critical stumbling block. An apparent loophole has emerged in India: A biotech firm, possibly acting as a front company, has purchased servers with advanced US chips, which are then rerouted and shipped to Russia. Investigative reporters with Bloomberg shed light on Shreya Life Sciences, a so-called biotech firm located in Mumbai. They cite trade data compiled by trade-tracking firms ImportGenius and NBD that show Shreya exported 1,111 units of PowerEdge XE9680 Rack Servers produced by Dell Technologies to Russia.On Dell's website, the product description for the PowerEdge XE9680 reads, "Take on demanding artificial intelligence, machine learning and deep learning. Rapidly develop, train and deploy large machine learning models with this high-performance application server made for artificial intelligence (AI), machine learning and deep learning. Dell's PowerEdge XE9680 delivers the industry's best AI performance." Further down in the product description, Dell notes the servers are equipped with either Nvidia or AMD chips. Bloomberg noted that the servers and chips are on a blacklist by the US and the European Union, preventing the flow of technology to Moscow. The EU, in cooperation with the US, UK, and Japan, has said these sanctions on Russia are "to target sensitive sectors in Russia's military-industrial complex and to limit its access to crucial advanced technology."
Biden's New Anti-Russia Sanctions Blitz Puts India & Others On Notice -The United States on Wednesday unveiled a new sanctions blitz targeting Russia and third parties believed to be helping it circumvent the ever-expanding net of Western sanctions. The US is trying to disrupt supplies of technological and industrial parts and components aiding the Russian war machine and defense sector.The fresh US Treasury and State Department action lists nearly 400 new entities and people spanning more than a dozen countries. It is being described as the "most concerted push so far against third-country evasion," the State Dept. said."This should send a serious message to both the governments and the private sectors of these countries that the U.S. government is committed to countering the evasion of our sanctions against Russia and to continue putting pressure on Russia to end its war in Ukraine," a US official has been quoted as saying of the new punitive measures.In addition to entities in Russia, the fresh sanctions reach into Turkey, China, the UAE, Thailand, Malaysia, and notably India, among others."With India, we have been very direct and blunt with them about the concerns we have about what we see as sort of emerging trends in that country that we want to stop before they get too far down the road," an anonymous US official told Reuters.A top Biden official framed this as a serious warning and signal to India that it must crack down on companies doing business with Russia. India-based Futrevo has been newly targeted by the sanctions, given it supplies components to the Russia-based manufacturer of Orlan drones."The United States and our allies will continue to take decisive action across the globe to stop the flow of critical tools and technologies that Russia needs to wage its illegal and immoral war against Ukraine," Deputy Treasury Secretary Wally Adeyemo announced.Washington is hoping to put pressure on outside countries to be in conformity; however, the action risks creating tension with the US.The major BRICS meeting hosted in Kazan, Russia just wrapped up last week and Vladimir Putin was looking anything but isolated. This included warm moments, and a literal embrace, between the Russian president and India's Narendra Modi.
China Enlarging Nuclear Forces With Eye on America: US Intel – A new U.S. government report this week shared updated estimates about China's nuclear buildup, linking it directly to Beijing competing with Washington.The report, the second of its kind since 2018, was released on Tuesday by the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA), which operates under the Department of Defense. It also covers the nuclear programs of U.S. adversaries Russia, North Korea and Iran, which is not known to have yet developed a warhead.China under President Xi Jinping has dramatically built up its nuclear stockpile and conventional forces. In August, Xi reiterated his intention to build the People's Liberation Army into a world-class military, calling it a "strategic task" in forming a modern socialist China."China is undergoing the most rapid expansion and ambitious modernization of its nuclear forces in history—almost certainly driven by an aim for enduring strategic competition with the U.S. and a goal to actualize intensified strategic concepts that have existed for decades but are now being realized," the report says. The DIA estimates that China has more than doubled its operational nuclear warheads since 2018, and they are now believed to exceed 500.While China is still believed to have only a fraction of the thousands of such weapons that Russia and the U.S. each possess, the DIA expects China's warhead count will again more than double by 2030, a forecast that is aligned with estimates from the Pentagon's 2023 report on Chinese military power.To support its rising nuclear delivery capabilities, China has embarked on the work of building hundreds of silos, per the DIA.The Chinese military's Rocket Force, which oversees the country's nuclear weapons, is developing ever more capable ICBMs to bolster its vast missile fleet. "This will require increased nuclear warhead production for multiple independently targetable reentry vehicle capabilities and general force growth," the report noted.The Rocket Force continues to produce road-mobile missiles, such as the Dong Feng-26, which is capable of both conventional and nuclear strikes on targets as far as U.S. military bases on Guam, per the DIA. Further reinforcing China's nuclear triad are the two Jin-class nuclear submarines that entered service in 2020, capable of being outfitted with nuclear missiles during wartime, and the H-6N bomber, a heavily redesigned version of the Xi'an H-6 that can be refueled midflight and fire cruise missiles.Beijing has for decades upheld a non-first-use (NFU) policy regarding nuclear weapons and has called for talks among nuclear powers for a collective commitment to do the same, as well draw down their arsenals. However, the DIA suggests Beijing would likely consider a nuclear strike in the event a conventional attack threatens its nuclear forces or "approximates the strategic effects of a nuclear strike," the report says.
China now has the biggest navy in the world - -- China has rapidly expanded its naval capabilities, now boasting the world's largest fleet by the number of vessels. However, despite this growth and the construction of more advanced ships like the Fujian, China still lags behind the U.S. in terms of naval power. The U.S. maintains a fleet of 11 advanced supercarriers, unparalleled by any other nation, while China's carriers are fewer and less capable. Additionally, the U.S. has a superior submarine fleet, with 71 nuclear-powered submarines capable of global and indefinite operations, compared to China's primarily regional, diesel-electric submarines. Although China aspires to become the world's most powerful navy, the U.S. continues to hold a significant qualitative edge, capable of projecting power globally across multiple fronts.
US Approves $2 Billion in New Arms Deals for Taiwan - On Friday, the State Department approved two potential arms deals for Taiwan worth about $2 billion, drawing a sharp rebuke from China. The Pentagon’s Defense Security Cooperation Agency (DSCA) said one deal is for three National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile Systems (NASAMS) and related equipment and has an estimated cost of $1.16 billion. The other deal is for radar systems and is worth about $828 million.The approval of the arms sales begins a period when Congress could potentially block the deals. But the sales are not expected to face any opposition since there is strong bipartisan support for arming Taiwan.In response to the approval of the arms sales, a Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson said that China “strongly condemns and firmly opposes it, and has lodged solemn representations with the US” and warned Beijing will “take all necessary measures to firmly defend national sovereignty, security and territorial integrity.”The new deals come as tensions are soaring between the US and China over Taiwan. Chinese officials, including President Xi Jinping, have repeatedly warned their US counterparts that the island is the “first red line” in US-China relations that must not be crossed, but the Biden administration continues to ignore Beijing’s concerns.The US has always sold weapons to Taiwan since Washington severed diplomatic relations with Taipei in 1979 as part of a normalization deal with China. Last year, the US started providing US-funded military aid, marking a significant escalation in US support for the island. In September, President Biden approved a $567 million arms package for Taiwan using the Presidential Drawdown Authority, which allows him to ship weapons straight from US military stockpiles.
Taiwan Signs Deal With US To Purchase 1,000 Attack Drones - Taiwan’s Defense Ministry has signed an agreement with the US government to purchase 1,000 attack drones from two American companies, AeroVironment and Anduril Industries, Bloomberg reported on Monday.The report said that Taiwan signed a “letter of offer and acceptance” in September, a step that comes before contracts are signed and the numbers and costs of the arms deal are figured out. The contracts are expected to be signed soon.In June, the State Department approved a similar deal worth $360 million for about 1,000 attack drones produced by AeroVironment and Anduril. The sale included 291 Altius-600M systems, which are produced by Anduril, and 720 Switchblade drones, produced by AeroVironment.China responded to the sale by issuing sanctions on some of the weapons makers and executives involved. Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Lin Jian pointed out the sanctions on Tuesday when asked about the new potential sale.“Taiwan is a province of China and there is no such thing as ‘Taiwan’s ministry of defense.’ China’s firm opposition to the military contact between the US and Taiwan is consistent and clear. The two US companies you mentioned and relevant senior executives in charge are under sanctions by China,” Lin said.Both the Altius-600M and the Switchblade are kamikaze drones, meaning they crash into their target to explode. Small kamikaze drones have been used extensively in the war in Ukraine, and the US military has big plans for the weapons as part of its preparations for a future war with China.Adm. Samuel Paparo, the head of US Indo-Pacific Command, said the US is planning to create a “hellscape” of aerial drones, drone boats, and unmanned submarines in the Taiwan Strait if China attacks Taiwan. “I want to turn the Taiwan Strait into an unmanned hellscape using a number of classified capabilities,” Paparo said. “So that I can make their lives utterly miserable for a month, which buys me the time for the rest of everything.” Last year, Deputy Secretary of Defense Kathleen Hicks outlined a plan to deploy thousands of drones controlled by Artificial Intelligence, known as the “Replicator Initiative.” “With Replicator, we’re beginning with all-domain, attritable autonomy, or ADA2, to help us overcome the [People’s Republic of China’s] advantage in mass: more ships, more missiles, more forces,” Hicks said at a conference in September 2023. She added that the US plans to deploy the drones “at a scale of multiple thousands, in multiple domains, within the next 18-to-24 months.”The US is openly preparing for a future direct conflict with China despite the risk of nuclear war. Last month, the US Navy unveiled a plan to be prepared for war by 2027.
Biden's Destructive Legacy --As President Biden’s term approaches its end, the US and several parts of the rest of the world are significantly worse off than they were when he took office. While the president is frequently lauded by members of the foreign policy establishment as a successful foreign policy leader, his tenure has been marked for the most part by deepening US involvement in foreign conflicts that show no signs of ending anytime soon. US policies under Biden have served only to stoke destabilizing conflict, and the president has shown no inclination to bring any of the wars currently backed by Washington to an end. Biden’s presidency showed the world just how extensive the rot in US foreign policy is, and most other nations will not soon forget what restored American “leadership” wrought.Biden ran on the promise of ending America’s forever wars, but after the withdrawal from Afghanistan he then spent most of his presidency going out of his way to involve US in conflicts where no vital American interests were at stake. The risk of great power conflict has also risen under Biden as he has pursued a China policy of containment and rivalry that the US can ill afford while US-Russian relations have sunk to new lows over Ukraine. In the Middle East, Biden has enabled Israel’s genocidal campaign in Gaza, backed their invasion of Lebanon, and supported their attacks on Iran. He has helped Israel sow chaos across the region, and he committed the US to a new open-ended and illegal war in Yemen. The president’s extreme ideological attachment to Israel led him to pursue an indefensible policy of unconditional support that has fueled the slaughter of civilians and created one of the worst man-made famines in modern times.The president’s aversion to serious diplomatic engagement meant that the US continued the disastrous economic wars against Iran, Venezuela, and North Korea that Trump had been waging. Biden’s refusal to reenter the nuclear deal with Iran ensured that there would be no progress in negotiations with Tehran. The administration’s efforts to secure a ceasefire in Gaza have been a face-saving exercise so that the US could claim to be doing something to end the war while it continued arming Netanyahu’s government to the teeth. The US hasn’t so much as pretended to be interested in a ceasefire in Ukraine. On almost every front, the Biden administration’s answer has been more militarism.The Biden administration has brought the US close to direct conflict with Iran thanks to Washington’s backing for Israel. It is still possible that the US and Iran might be at war in the next few months. It would be bad enough to get into an unnecessary war to support a non-ally, but to do it when the client is also massacring and starving civilians is inexcusable. US backing for the wars in Gaza and Lebanon is a strategic and moral debacle, and Biden shouldn’t be let off the hook for putting the US in this position. Even if the US and Iran avoid war again, it is a measure of how dangerous administration policy has been that it was ever this close to happening.There is never any real accountability in Washington for the outrages and crimes committed by our leaders. It is doubtful that officials in the Biden administration will face legal or personal consequences for their role in these horrors. Regardless, Americans should remember that Biden and his administration were willing accomplices to mass starvation and genocide. Their complicity should never be forgotten, and they deserve all the opprobrium that the world has to offer.The result of Biden’s decisions is that our already heavily militarized foreign policy has become even worse than it was before. The administration’s limited diplomatic efforts have been consumed by the president’s obsession with giving Saudi Arabia a security guarantee. Biden has done extensive damage to the reputation and interests of the United States, and he will likely be remembered as one of the two worst foreign policy presidents of the last fifty years along with George W. Bush. Biden’s foreign policy legacy is mostly one of fanning the flames of war and the destruction of innocent lives.
House COVID panel says Andrew Cuomo lied to Congress, calls for DOJ to prosecute -House Republicans have referred former New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo (D) to the Justice Department (DOJ) for criminal charges, alleging he lied to the panel about his knowledge of a state health department report that was used to deflect criticism of his administration’s pandemic-era nursing home policies. Cuomo told members of the House panel investigating the coronavirus pandemic that he was not involved in the review or drafting of the report and had no knowledge of anyone outside the state health department who reviewed the report before its release in July 2020. The report blamed staff for bringing the virus inside nursing homes and causing excess COVID-19 deaths, rather than the Cuomo administration’s policies. But the House panel, led by Rep. Brad Wenstrup (R-Ohio), said it found “overwhelming evidence … that proves that Mr. Cuomo reviewed, edited, and even drafted portions” of the report. “Both witness testimony and new documents serve as evidence that the former Governor made false statements to the Select Subcommittee during our COVID-19 nursing home investigation,” Wenstrup said in a statement. “This deliberate and self-serving attempt to avoid accountability for the thousands of lives lost in New York nursing homes during the pandemic will not stand.” In his letter to Attorney General Merrick Garland dated Wednesday, Wenstrup called on the DOJ to prosecute Cuomo.“Mr. Cuomo provided false statements to the Select Subcommittee in what appears to be a conscious, calculated effort to insulate himself from accountability,” he wrote. Wenstrup provided copies of emails and documents that appear to show Cuomo knew about the report and helped w rite early drafts, contradicting assertions that it was independently written by the health department. “Governor’s edits are attached for your review,” Cuomo’s assistant Farrah Kennedy wrote in a June 2020 email obtained by the committee. The emails purported to show Cuomo inserted language stating “But, like in all fifty states, there were COVID-positive cases.” During the closed-door interview, subcommittee counsel asked Cuomo if he was “involved in the drafting of [the July 6 Report] in any capacity.” Cuomo said he was not. The emails were reported by The New York Times in September.In a statement, a Cuomo spokesperson slammed the committee and said its investigation was only meant to score political points days away from the election.“This taxpayer-funded farce is an illegal use of Congress’ investigative authority. The committee counsels … knows there is no basis for this pre-election Maga exercise and affirmatively chose to act unethically in order to help their masters score cheap political points,” Rich Azzopardi said. Azzopardi cited parts of the closed-door testimony and Cuomo’s public hearing in September where he clarified that he did not recall seeing or reviewing the report prior to its issuance, after earlier asserting that he was not involved.
Trump says he'll let RFK Jr. 'go wild' on health, food in potential second term -Former President Trump said Sunday that he would let Robert F. Kennedy Jr. “go wild” in dealing with issues related to food, medicine and health in a potential second administration.“I’m going to let him go wild on health. I’m going to let him go wild on the food. I’m going to let him go wild on the medicines,” Trump told supporters at Madison Square Garden.“The only thing I don’t think I’m going to let him even get near is the liquid gold that we have under our feet,” he added, referring to oil.Kennedy ran an independent White House campaign before dropping out in August and and endorsing Trump. Kennedy, who has led an initiative for the Trump campaign dubbed “Make America Healthy Again,” has long drawn criticism for his anti-vaccine comments. He has spoken about the proliferation of processed foods and additives, and he has worked as an environmental lawyer.Medical experts have raised concerns about Kennedy’s potential influence in a future Trump administration.Kennedy has denied being against vaccines outright but has long peddled debunked conspiracy theories about them. At a congressional hearing last year, he denied telling people to avoid getting vaccinated, but two years earlier he said on a podcast that he regularly tells strangers not to vaccinate their babies. And on CNN in December, he denied saying no vaccines are “safe and effective,” despite having said exactly that in an interview last July.
Oil bigwigs open wallets for Trump after billion-dollar request - Oil and gas tycoons made significant contributions to the Trump campaign after the former president asked the industry for $1 billion to support his reelection bid — and reportedly said it would be a “deal” for them to do so. A source told The Hill earlier this year the $1 billion request at an April fundraiser was not framed as any sort of quid pro quo. Nevertheless, Democrats have described the incident as corruption and said they would investigate it, and this was the first election where several oil industry donors opened their pockets for Trump.Two executives who reportedly attended Trump oil industry fundraisers this spring later made significant contributions to Trump-aligned political committees — something they hadn’t done in previous presidential cycles.Cheniere Energy CEO Jack Fusco donated $250,000 to the joint fundraising Trump 47 Committee in June, according to records from the Federal Election Commission (FEC). The committee then distributed $6,600 to the Trump campaign and $243,400 to the Republican National Committee (RNC).As a joint fundraising committee, the Trump 47 Committee allocates funds to the Trump campaign and the RNC and, once the contribution limits are maxed out, to other participating political committees.Fusco attended a dinner where Trump told energy executives they should raise $1 billion to support his return to the presidency and that doing so would be a “deal” because of the money they would save on taxes and regulations, according to The Washington Post.The Post reported that other attendees were executives from companies, including Occidental Petroleum, though it did not name them.In July, Occidental President and CEO Vicki Hollub appears to have donated $41,300 to the RNC through the Trump 47 Committee, according to the contribution memo, and another $41,300 to the RNC on the same day. Campaign finance records show she gave $6,600 to the Trump campaign and $5,000 to Save America, Trump’s leadership PAC, through Trump 47.The FEC’s website lists “retired” as the employer of the Hollub who made the $41,300 donations, but she shares the middle initial and mailing address of the Hollub who leads Occidental, according to other FEC receipts. Some of the other donations from Hollub do not list an employer at all, but still list the same mailing address.Separately, the Post reported that at a different fundraiser in May, Trump promised oil and gas companies he would reduce Federal Trade Commission (FTC) scrutiny of their mergers and acquisitions.Trump specifically promised Occidental better treatment after Hollub complained the agency is delaying Occidental’s acquisition of oil and gas producer CrownRock and probed her phone, according to the Post. A spokesperson for Occidental did not respond to The Hill’s requests for comment and clarification. A Cheniere Energy spokesperson declined to comment.The Guardian and the Post reported that Hollub, alongside Energy Transfer Partners’s Kelcy Warren and Continental Resources’s Harold Hamm co-hosted the May fundraiser for Trump. Hamm, a major Trump donor, also reportedly organized the April fundraiser.While Hamm supported former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley earlier this election cycle, he backed Trump in 2020 and 2016. Hamm gave a total of $320,000 to the Trump Victory PAC, the former president’s joint fundraising PAC, in 2020 and a total of $449,400 in 2016.
Washington Post owner Bezos blocks endorsement of Harris -On Friday, the publisher and CEO of the Washington Post, William Lewis, announced that the newspaper would not be making an endorsement in this year’s presidential election.In “a note from the publisher” posted in the opinion section of the newspaper’s website, Lewis said: The Washington Post will not be making an endorsement of a presidential candidate in this election. Nor in any future presidential election. We are returning to our roots of not endorsing presidential candidates.Lewis also said the decision not to endorse a candidate is “consistent with the values The Post has always stood for,” and “a statement in support of our readers’ ability to make up their own minds on this, the most consequential of American decisions—whom to vote for as the next president.” The Washington Post editorial board has made an endorsement in every election since 1976, when it endorsed Jimmy Carter against Gerald Ford, except for the 1988 race between George H. W. Bush and Michael Dukakis. In each case during that period, the paper endorsed the Democratic Party candidate. The news pages of the Post have been consistently pro-Democratic, pro-Harris and critical of Trump throughout the months of the campaign since the two capitalist parties formally nominated their candidates. In a news article also posted on Friday, unnamed sources were quoted as saying that an endorsement of Kamala Harris over Donald Trump had been written but not published. The sources were cited as saying the decision not to endorse was made by Post owner Jeff Bezos, the billionaire founder of Amazon.The article stated:The decision to no longer publish presidential endorsements was made by The Post’s owner, Amazon founder Jeff Bezos, according to four people who were briefed on the decision.Bezos, according to the Forbes Rich List, is the third richest person on the planet, with $205.6 billion. He lost a $10 billion government contract for his cloud computing business during the Trump administration of 2016-2020. Trump has repeatedly denounced media sources opposing him as “the enemy of the people.” At a rally last Thursday in Arizona, Trump threatened to revoke the broadband license of the CBS network.During his administration, Trump called the Post, “The Fake News Washington Post” and derided it as Amazon’s “chief lobbyist.”On Friday, after Trump spoke in Austin, Texas, he greeted executives from Blue Origin, Bezos’ space exploration company. Trump spoke with Blue Origin’s CEO and vice president of government relations. The company has a $3.4 billion contract with the federal government to build a new spacecraft to shuttle astronauts to and from the moon’s surface.The Post news article said that the editorial board was informed on Friday of the decision by Opinion Editor David Shipley “in a tense meeting.” According to two unnamed members of the board, there was “vehement opposition” to the announcement.
Washington Post loses over 200,000 subscribers over endorsement outrage: report -The Washington Post has lost more than 200,000 digital subscriptions since its decision not to endorse a candidate in this year’s presidential election, according to a report by NPR citing two people at the paper with knowledge of internal matters.Such a number would amount to around 8 percent of the outlet’s 2.5 million digital and print subscribers.A spokesperson for the Post declined to comment. The decision not to endorse reportedly was made by Jeff Bezos, the newspaper’s billionaire owner, after its editorial board had already drafted and was planning to publish an editorial backing Vice President Harris.The decision has led to a handful of resignations, while scores of Post subscribers have taken to social media to share their decision to cancel a subscription. Many of those doing so have noted the newspaper’s “democracy dies in darkness” motto.Robert Kagan, an editor-at-large at the Post, resigned Friday, while two members of the Post’s editorial board, Molly Roberts and David Hoffman, said they were stepping down from the editorial board.Roberts said she was stepping down because “the imperative to endorse Kamala Harris overDonald Trump is about as morally clear as it gets,” while Hoffman, a Pulitzer Prize winner, wrote in a note to his editors obtained by The New York Times that he was stepping down from the board but keeping his position. “I refuse to give up on The Post, where I have spent 42 years,” he wrote.While hundreds of thousands have canceled their subscriptions, others have argued online that canceling an online subscription to the Post hurts its journalists.
Bezos breaks silence, defends move to drop Washington Post presidential endorsements -- Jeff Bezos, the billionaire founder of Amazon and owner of The Washington Post, broke his silence late Monday in the face of an intensifying controversy over the outlet’s decision not to endorse a candidate in this year’s presidential election. In an op-ed published in the Post, Bezos pushed back on suggestions that the decision, which he confirmed he personally ordered, was not made with his business interests in mind but was needed to uphold the Post’s reputation at a time when trust in media is eroding. “What presidential endorsements actually do is create a perception of bias. A perception of non-independence. Ending them is a principled decision, and it’s the right one,” Bezos wrote. “I would also like to be clear that no quid pro quo of any kind is at work here. Neither campaign nor candidate was consulted or informed at any level or in any way about this decision. It was made entirely internally.” The billionaire tech and media titan acknowledged reports that Dave Limp, the chief executive of one of his companies, Blue Origin, met with former President Trump the same day the Post announced it would not be endorsing a candidate last week. “I sighed when I found out, because I knew it would provide ammunition to those who would like to frame this as anything other than a principled decision,” he said. Bezos said when it comes to the appearance of a conflict of interest between the Post’s coverage and his business endeavors and vast wealth, “I am not an ideal owner of The Post.” “Every day, somewhere, some Amazon executive or Blue Origin executive or someone from the other philanthropies and companies I own or invest in is meeting with government officials,” he wrote. “I once wrote that The Post is a ‘complexifier’ for me. It is, but it turns out I’m also a complexifier for The Post.” Bezos’s edict to not run an endorsement of either Vice President Harris or Trump reportedly came after the Post’s editorial board had drafted and was ready to publish an editorial backing Harris. “Lack of credibility isn’t unique to The Post. Our brethren newspapers have the same issue. And it’s a problem not only for media, but also for the nation,” the newspaper’s owner wrote. The decision not to endorse a candidate has sparked vocal protest from inside the Post newsroom, resignations by members of its editorial board and a reported loss of more than 200,000 digital subscribers in four days. But Bezos said he does not regret breaking with more than three decades of tradition at one of the nation’s leading newspapers.
Trump’s fascist rally at Madison Square Garden - The rally held for Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump at Madison Square Garden in New York City on Sunday night revealed the face of a political movement that is acquiring an ever more openly fascist character. Media commentators have, appropriately, used the term fascism to describe the movement Trump is building. But while they identify certain features of fascism—including the subversion of traditional electoral methods to violence and intimidation, extreme nationalism and xenophobia—they exclude its most essential content, capitalist counterrevolution. Some commentators remarked in response to the Madison Square Garden rally that it would likely cost Trump votes. There is no doubt that the display in New York will provoke revulsion among broader sections of the population and not just among those directly targeted by Trump’s fascistic filth. Trump’s plan for power, however, is not based on formal electoral procedures but on the methods of civil war. Trump and the Republicans are operating on the basis of a fascist playbook. This was evident in what was said on Sunday night. In New York City, the media capital of the world, Republican speakers hurled racist and anti-immigrant remarks with abandon. One speaker referred to Puerto Rico, the ancestral homeland of some 6 million Americans, including 1 million New Yorkers, as a “floating island of garbage.” Trump adviser Stephen Miller shrieked that “America is for Americans and Americans only,” a slogan that is a direct translation from the Nazi mantra, “Deutschland ist nur für Deutsche,” which was used to justify the mass murder of Jews in the Holocaust. Trump, for his part, proclaimed that with his victory “the migrant invasion of our country ends and the restoration of our country begins” and that election day would be “liberation day.” Tropes of “national rebirth” overcoming “foreign contamination” have long been a staple of fascist movements. The Republican platform includes a pledge to round up and deport 11 million men, women and children, a feat that could only be achieved through a police state. Outlined at Madison Square Garden is a strategy of violent repression on an industrial scale. What Trump is promising must ultimately lead to mass murder. Violence will first be directed against political opponents, what Trump calls “the enemy within.” With the congressional Republican leadership looking on, Trump and his allies again swore blood oaths of revenge against their foes. Given that a little less than four years ago his supporters came within yards of publicly executing Vice President Mike Pence and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, these threats must be seen as deadly real. Speakers referred to the Democratic presidential nominee, Kamala Harris, as “the Antichrist” and “the devil.” Another referred to all Democrats as “a bunch of degenerates, low lives, Jew-haters.” Trump doubled down on his rhetoric calling his opponents internal enemies, stating “they’re smart and they’re vicious, and we have to defeat them,” adding, “they’ve done very bad things to this country. They are indeed the enemy from within.” This strategy will not be altered by next Tuesday’s vote. Trump and the Republicans are preparing to utilize illegal and unconstitutional methods to contest any result that goes against them, utilizing their control of state governments and police forces to challenge electoral results as they did four years ago. The day after the rally, ballot boxes were targeted for arson in Washington and Oregon, a small indication of what is to come.
Worst. Nazi. Rally. Ever. - When Donald Trump’s campaign announced plans for a rally at Madison Square Garden, Democrats and their media allies knew they had a problem. Trump was going to pack the house on their turf. So they wasted no time pushing the tired Hitler narrative and claimed that the choice of venue was an homage to a pro-Nazi rally held there in 1939. NEW: MSNBC directly compares Donald Trump's Madison Square Garden rally to a 1939 N*zi rally, directly compares Donald Trump to Adolf H*tler. You don't hate the media enough. "But that jamboree happening right now, you see it there on your screen in that place is particularly… pic.twitter.com/iGY6Mph4Ms It wasn't just liberals in the media pushing this narrative, either. Hillary Clinton accused Trump of “actually re-enacting the Madison Square Garden rally in 1939.” “President Franklin Roosevelt was appalled that neo-Nazis, fascists in America were lining up to essentially pledge their support for the kind of government that they were seeing in Germany. So I don’t think we can ignore it,” Hillary added. Then she doubled down. “Now, it may be a leap for some people and a lot of others may think, ‘I don’t want to go there. I don’t want to say that.’ But please open your eyes to the danger that this man poses to our country, because I think it is clear and present for anybody paying attention.” Even the Harris-Walz campaign joined in on the rhetoric.“Donald Trump’s got this big rally going at Madison Square Garden,” Kamala's running mate Tim Walz said at a campaign event in Henderson, Nevada. “There’s a direct parallel to a big rally that happened in the mid-1930s at Madison Square Garden.” Walz added, “And don’t think that he doesn’t know for one second exactly what they’re doing there." Tim Walz repeats the disgusting smear that President Trump's "big rally" at Madison Square Garden today is somehow akin to a 1939 Nazi rally. He must've missed the '76, '80, and '92 Democrat conventions, which were also held at MSG. What a scumbag. pic.twitter.com/4zK1rCm9no Well, the rally took place Sunday night, and boy, talk about the worst Nazi rally ever! In addition to the diverse speakers at the event, a black woman sang the national anthem. May be the first black woman I’ve ever seen singing the National Anthem at a Nazi rally! History being made people!!! pic.twitter.com/LwROkR9ne5 And clearly, Jews didn't get the memo that this was a "Nazi rally." Jews for Trump have arrived at the Madison Square Garden. Are they still calling it a Nazi rally???? pic.twitter.com/sEnUqaMilk Jews are flocking to the MAGA rally in the Garden - the one Crooked Hillary, the Border Czar their Pravda media are calling a “Nazi Rally.”pic.twitter.com/ZQUgglTto9 The only Nazi symbols you saw at all came courtesy of the Democrats. Democrats are holding up Nazi swastika's outside Madison Square Garden. pic.twitter.com/KSBRXUMusI
5 takeaways from Donald Trump's Madison Square Garden rally Former President Trump held a rally Sunday at Madison Square Garden, kicking off the final full week of campaigning in the heart of Manhattan.The Trump campaign trotted out a number of high-profile speakers to excite the crowd. And while Trump is unlikely to be competitive in New York on Election Day, the event served as a way to generate significant media attention and deliver something akin to a closing message to voters. But some of the earlier speakers overshadowed the event with their incendiary rhetoric. But those looking for a clearer, more concise message heard more of the same from Trump as he repeated many of his same attacks on Vice President Harris’s intelligence, described the U.S. as an “occupied country” because of the surge in immigration at the southern border and emphasized his plans to impose tariffs on foreign imports and companies that outsource production. Former Fox News host Tucker Carlson, billionaire Elon Musk, Sen. JD Vance (R-Ohio), Donald Trump Jr., Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Hulk Hogan and Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) were among those who took the stage ahead of the former president. Former first lady Melania Trump made an extremely rare campaign appearance, delivering brief remarks and introducing her husband.The slew of speakers are unlikely to win over voters on the fence, but their presence on the trail could boost enthusiasm among Trump’s base and among less reliable voting blocs, such as young men.Musk and Carlson in particular have become popular with Trump’s base and have had a more active role on the trail in the closing weeks of the campaign.“This is a real election battle. So, you need to get friends and families to vote. Make sure they vote. Vote early. This is important,” said Musk, who basked in the adoration of the crowd.Carlson spoke at a Trump rally in Georgia last week and will host an event with the former president in Arizona on Thursday.Musk has backed a major super PAC working on get-out-the-vote efforts for the Trump campaign, spending millions for the cause. He has also campaigned in the key battleground of Pennsylvania, even as some of his efforts to register swing state voters have drawn legal scrutiny. The parade of guest speakers who preceded Trump seemed intent on creating controversial headlines for the party, hurling racist and sexist insults. Comedian Tony Hinchcliffe, who goes by Kill Tony, delivered a set that included inflammatory attacks on Puerto Ricans. “There’s a lot going on. Like, I don’t know if you know this, but there’s literally a floating island of garbage in the middle of the ocean right now. I think it’s called Puerto Rico,” Hinchcliffe said, eliciting mixed reactions from the crowd.Harris campaign aides noted Hinchcliffe’s remarks came as the vice president was in Philadelphia speaking at a Puerto Rican restaurant, where she detailed her plans to assist the island and bolster its electrical grid. Others noted the key battleground of Pennsylvania is home to hundreds of thousands of Puerto Ricans. Carlson mocked Harris’s racial identity. Sid Rosenberg, a New York City radio host whose show Trump calls in to periodically, blasted Democrats in derogatory and explicit terms.“She is some sick bastard, that Hillary Clinton. What a sick son of a b‑‑‑‑,” he said of the former secretary of State and 2016 Democratic nominee. “The whole f‑‑‑ing party. A bunch of degenerates.”One speaker described Harris as “the devil” and “the antichrist.”The former president has drawn backlash from Democrats in recent weeks as he has repeatedly labeled his political rivals the “enemy from within” and suggested his opponents are worse than foreign adversaries.On Sunday, Trump defended and repeated that line.“When I say the enemy from within, the other side goes crazy. Becomes a sound bite — ‘Oh, how can he say…’” Trump said. “No, they’ve done very bad things to this country. They are indeed the enemy from within. But this is who we’re fighting.” He later disparaged the press as the “enemy of the people.”Trump has used the line repeatedly in recent weeks, including in an interview with Fox News when he suggested the military could be used to quell protests from his critics. Those comments have been at the center of criticism from some of his former top White House aides and from the Harris campaign. The former president’s insistence on using such harsh attacks against his critics come as some Republicans have claimed Democrats are going too far with their rhetoric by labeling Trump a fascist.Trump rolled out one new policy, and it is one that echoed something first proposed by his opponent.“I am announcing a new policy today that I will support a tax credit for family caregivers who take care of a parent or a loved one. It’s about time that they were recognized,” Trump said.Harris earlier this month introduced a new plan to expand Medicare benefits so the program covers the costs of long-term home care for older Americans. The plan is aimed at helping the “sandwich generation” who are caring for both their own children and their aging parents.Trump has previously called for eliminating taxes on tipped wages, overtime and Social Security benefits, though some experts have questioned how Trump would pay for those tax cuts without expanding the deficit.
GOP voices frustration, disgust over Trump MSG rally - Republicans are expressing frustration about controversial remarks made at former President Trump’s Madison Square Garden rally, worrying it could complicate the party’s outreach to Hispanic, Latino and Black voters. Comedian Tony Hinchcliffe, one of the featured guests at Trump’s New York City event, sparked a furor after referring to Puerto Rico as a “a floating island of garbage,” prompting some members of the GOP, like Rep. Anthony D’Esposito (R-N.Y.), who is Puerto Rican, to come out against the remarks. And Tucker Carlson mocked Vice President Harris’s racial identity. The controversy comes as Republicans have looked to expand their reach with different voting cohorts, which could hold the keys to another Trump reelection. “This is just a big punch in the gut for Republicans who have sincerely and over a period of time been working to grow strong relationships and roots in Puerto Rican communities, particularly here in the state of Florida,” said former Rep. Carlos Curbelo (R-Fla.). Although recent polls show Harris holding the majority of support among Latino voters — with a 40-point favorability gap among women — one-third of Latino voters remain undecided. For that reason, Trump and his allies have been working hard to shore up support among Latino voters in the closing stretch of the election — though Hinchcliffe’s comments could complicate those efforts. In addition to his remark about Puerto Rico, the comedian also made a crude joke about Latinos in which he said “they love making babies too. Just know that. They do. They do. There’s no pulling out. They don’t do that. They come inside. Just like they did to our country.” Hinchcliffe’s remarks prompted several sitting GOP members of Congress to push back against the derogatory remarks. “I’m proud to be Puerto Rican. My mom was born and raised in Puerto Rico,” D’Esposito wrote on the social platform X. “It’s a beautiful island with a rich culture and an integral part of the USA. The only thing that’s ‘garbage’ was a bad comedy set. Stay on message.” Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar (R-Fla.), who was born in Cuba but raised in part in Puerto Rico, said on X that she was “disgusted” by Hinchcliffe’s remarks. “This rhetoric does not reflect GOP values,” she said. Sen. Rick Scott (R-Fla.), whose successful 2018 election was won with the help of Puerto Rican voters, also said on X that the joke “bombed,” calling it “not funny and not true.”
Trump attacks Michelle Obama at Atlanta rally -Former President Trump attacked former first lady Michelle Obama during his rally in Atlanta on Monday, calling her “nasty” after Obama lobbed attacks at the former president while stumping for Vice President Harris.“You know who’s nasty to me? Michelle Obama,” Trump told supporters in Atlanta.“I always tried to be so nice and respectful. Oh, she opened up a little bit of — a little bit of a box. She opened up a little bit of something. Oh, she was nasty. Shouldn’t be that way. That was a big mistake that she made,” he added.His remarks come after Obama criticized Trump during a Michigan rally on Saturday, at one point mentioning “Donald Trump’s gross incompetence.”“I hope that you’ll forgive me if I’m a little angry that we are indifferent to his erratic behavior, his obvious mental decline, his history as a convicted felon, a known slum lord, a predator found liable for sexual abuse, all of this while we pick apart Kamala’s answers from interviews that he doesn’t even have the courage to do, y’all,” she said in Kalamazoo, Mich.The heated rhetoric underscores the increasingly personal tone the presidential election has taken between the two campaigns roughly one week out from the election.
Crowd at Trump rally chants 'lock her up' about Harris -- The crowd at former President Trump’s rally in Georgia chanted “lock her up” about Vice President Harris on Monday, underscoring the increasingly heated tone the 2024 presidential election has taken. “Next Tuesday, you have to stand up and you have to tell Kamala Harris that you’ve had a terrible, terrible run, that you’ve hurt our country very badly,” Trump said at his event in Atlanta. Trump claimed Harris allowed murderers, drug dealers and terrorists into the country. “You’ve accepted some of the worst criminals in the world into our country. You’re going to say, ‘Please say it, sir.’ I say I will. Kamala, you’re fired. Get out of here. Get out of here,” he said, before the crowd began shouting “lock her up!” “Be nice,” Trump said in response. The “lock her up!” chants heard at past Trump rallies have largely referred to Hillary Clinton, whom the former president beat in 2016’s election. But the latest chants echoing a similar phrase about Harris suggest the 2024 election has hit an even more somber tone. It’s not the first time this year that crowds have chanted for a presidential candidate to be locked up. While Clinton spoke at the Democratic National Convention earlier this summer about Trump and his felonies, attendees could be heard saying “lock him up!” President Biden last week also called for Trump to be jailed before catching his slipup, adding “politically lock him up.” The Trump campaign at the time immediately attacked Biden for his comments, with Trump campaign spokesperson Karoline Leavitt saying in a statement, “Joe Biden just admitted the truth: he and Kamala’s plan all along has been to politically persecute their opponent President Trump because they can’t beat him fair and square.”
Rogan Rages At YouTube Censorship: "You Can't Suppress Shit... It Doesn't Work!" - "If you Google'd Rogan-Trump you could only get clips, you couldn't find the full episode," exclaimed Joe Rogan this afternoon, after numerous reports of censorship/suppression of his legendary interview with former President Trump on YouTube."We reached out to them," he continued, "and they fixed it," but, he went on "Elon was furious and contacted Daniel Ek at Spotify and they put it on X as well. Now it has more views than ever."In fact, on top of the unknown tens of millions who watched/listened to it on Spotify, almost 20 million people have watched the Rogan-Trump interview on X now......and a further 41 million on YouTube...Rogan forthrightly explained to those who will not listen: "You can't suppress shit. It doesn't work. People are going to realize what you're doing. "This is 2024."If my video isn't trending, then what is? Why is my video not trending? If one show has 36 million downloads in one day, that's not trending? There's no way this was a mistake. It could have been a rogue engineer or something."Watch the full clip here:
Chinese hackers target Democratic congressional staffers - Chinese hackers also targeted cell phones belonging to senior Democratic officials in addition to former President Trump, Sen. J.D. Vance (R-Ohio) and people in the Harris campaign, The Associated Press reported on Friday. NewsNation confirmed on Friday, per a Democratic source briefed, that the Chinese hack targeted prominent Democrats, including Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer’s (D-N.Y.) staff.AP said that it’s not clear what data, if any, was accessed, and that U.S. officials are continuing to investigate the situation.U.S. officials also said that the “the campaigns were among numerous targets of a larger cyberespionage operation launched by China,” per AP.The FBI and the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA) on Friday said they were investigating alleged hacks by Chinese-affiliated actors amid media reports that Vance and Trump had been targeted.The FBI and CISA, in a joint statement released Friday morning, said they are looking into the “unauthorized access to commercial telecommunications infrastructure” by actors affiliated with China.“Agencies across the U.S. Government are collaborating to aggressively mitigate this threat and are coordinating with our industry partners to strengthen cyber defenses across the commercial communications sector,” the FBI said.The hack comes as federal agencies have repeatedly warned that China, Russia and Iran are among the foreign adversaries ramping up efforts to meddle with the 2024 election. Microsoft released a report earlier this week showing that Chinese influence operations targeted a handful of Republican candidates and congressional members who “advocate for anti-Chinese policies.”Iran is accused of spearheading a separate hack of the Trump campaign last summer and attempting to share the information with President Biden’s campaign.
American creating deepfakes targeting Harris works with Russian intel, documents show - A former deputy Palm Beach County sheriff who fled to Moscow and became one of the Kremlin’s most prolific propagandists is working directly with Russian military intelligence to pump out deepfakes and circulate misinformation that targets Vice President Kamala Harris’s campaign, according to Russian documents obtained by a European intelligence service and reviewed by The Washington Post.
Ballot boxes lit on fire in 3 states ahead of US election day - The FBI and local police are investigating a major arson incident after ballot boxes in Vancouver, Washington and Portland, Oregon, were targeted with incendiary devices early Monday morning, just eight days before election day in the United States. No one was apparently injured in either incident, and as of this writing police have yet to make an arrest or release a motive. The two attacks took place one day after Trump’s fascist rally in New York City on Sunday, which included incitements to violence prior, during and after the final day of the election on November 5. The first attack occurred early Monday morning in Portland, Oregon. According to police, they received a call at 3:00 a.m. that the ballot box located roughly a block away from the Multnomah County Elections Office was smoking. By the time police arrived, private security personnel located on-site and a fire suppressant device inside the ballot box were apparently able to snuff out the flames, leaving only three ballots destroyed. Roughly an hour after the initial call, a second arson attack was reported targeting a ballot box in Vancouver, Washington. In a statement released Monday, Washington Rep. Marie Gluesekamp Perez (Democrat) wrote that the fire at the Fisher’s Landing Transit Center resulted “in the destruction of hundreds of ballots.” For the second election in a row, Gluesekamp Perez, co-chair of the centrist “Blue Dog Coalition,” will be challenged for her House seat by Republican Joe Kent, an ex-Special Forces soldier and ardent defender of Trump’s “MAGA” agenda and his “stolen election” lies. In the 2022 race, Gluesenkamp Perez defeated Kent by fewer than 3,000 votes, in part due to a 28-point margin in the “precincts surrounding the Fisher’s Landing drop box” The Oregonian reported. In a joint press conference Monday, Vancouver and Portland police indicated they believed both the attacks were related to each other, and to a previous attack on October 8. In the first incident, a caller reported seeing fire/smoke rising from a ballot box. By the time police arrived, they located an incendiary device next to the box. No ballots were apparently damaged in the first incident. Police released photographs in the afternoon showing what they said was an identical Volvo sedan spotted at both of the targeted drop boxes in Vancouver and Portland. While no motive has been given yet by police, the city of Portland has specifically and repeatedly been the subject of former President Donald Trump’s fascist vitriol. Following the police murder of George Floyd in 2020 and subsequent mass protests, Trump proactively deployed federal agents, including heavily armed BORTAC (Border Patrol Tactical Unit) thugs, to terrorize, kidnap and assault Portland protesters throughout the summer. The arson attacks in the Pacific Northwest follow a separate ballot burning incident that occurred last week in Phoenix, Arizona. Last Thursday, October 24, police arrested Deiter Klofkorn, 35, following a fire of a free-standing US Postal Office mailbox that damaged an estimated 20 ballots. According to police, Klofkorn, while in custody, stated that he committed the arson because he “wanted to be arrested” and that he did not do it for political reasons. Klofkorn is currently being held on one felony count of Arson of Property.
Ballot box fires stoke fears of election violence --Two ballot drop box fires in the Pacific Northwest this week have stoked concerns about election security and the risk of violence in the 2024 election days before voting concludes.Arson burned hundreds of ballots in what one official called “a direct attack on democracy” in Vancouver, Wash., and harmed a small handful in nearby Portland, Ore. The pair of incidents mark rare disruptions to election administration, experts stressed, but they raise worries about whether more threats or attacks are to come amid a tense, polarized race — and whether the incidents could sow voter distrust in the systems. “There’s this larger environment of distrust in our elections that has generated a set of security and safety concerns that ballot drop boxes are just one part of,” said Mindy Romero, director of the Center for Inclusive Democracy at the University of Southern California. “These sorts of actions, like bombing these drop boxes, I think … are ultimately about increasing fear, increasing distrust and potentially discouraging people from voting.”Officials in Oregon and Washington have said the evidence suggests the two incidents this week, plus a third possible arson incident in the Evergreen State last month, are connected. A suspect description and vehicle have been identified, and the Portland Police Bureau said Wednesday that investigators believe “it is possible that the suspect intends to continue these targeted attacks.”The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) has been on alert in the run-up to Election Day that drop boxes could be targeted by “domestic violent extremists” this cycle, according to internal bulletins, and experts are now concerned about continued or copycat attacks after the Pacific Northwest fires. “Some social media users are discussing and encouraging various methods of sabotaging ballot drop boxes and avoiding detection, likely heightening the potential for targeting of this election infrastructure through the 2024 election cycle,” the DHS concluded in a September memo.
RNC asks Supreme Court for emergency order in Pennsylvania mail ballot case - The Republican National Committee (RNC) asked the Supreme Court on Monday for an emergency order that would prevent Pennsylvanians whose mail ballots are rejected for technical reasons from having a provisional ballot counted.Last week, Pennsylvania’s top court ruled 4-3 that state law gives impacted mail voters an opportunity to still participate by showing up at their polling place in person on Election Day.The RNC argues the ruling misreads state law, which states a “provisional ballot shall not be counted” if a voter’s mail ballot was “timely received.”“When the legislature says that certain ballots can never be counted, a state court cannot blue-pencil that clear command into always. And here, the General Assembly could not have been clearer,” the RNC’s attorneys wrote in their application.Some Pennsylvania counties do not provide voters an opportunity to fix their mail ballot if it is rejected for technical errors like an improper date or signature issues, and the state court’s ruling, if allowed to stand, would provide those voters with a second chance at having their vote counted.More than 1.4 million mail ballots have been returned in the state so far, according to the Pennsylvania Department of State. Polling indicates the presidential race remains tight in Pennsylvania, and both candidates view the state as paramount to their chances of victory.The case arose after two Pennsylvania voters’ mail ballots were rejected in this year’s primary for not being returned with a required inner secrecy envelope. The voters sued and are backed by the Pennsylvania Democratic Party.Justice Samuel Alito, who by default handles emergency appeals arising from Pennsylvania, ordered the other parties to respond to the RNC’s application by Wednesday.The RNC has asked for a ruling by Friday in advance of next week’s election. Alternatively, the party asked that the challenged provisional ballots be segregated and tallied separately.“Even if the Pennsylvania Supreme Court’s decision does not change the outcome of any election, the question of whether the provisional ballots can be added to the vote total would remain a concrete dispute this Court can review,” the application says. The case is one of four election-related emergency motions at the Supreme Court currently pending.
Trump's claims of fraud in Pennsylvania elections spark concerns --Former President Trump is sowing doubt about the election results in Pennsylvania less than one week before Election Day, making explosive and misleading claims about fraud in the commonwealth. The former president’s rhetoric comes amid fears from critics that he is laying the foundation to undermine or contest the election results if he loses. Trump spread false claims of widespread voter fraud after he lost the 2020 election, culminating in the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the Capitol. “This rhetoric is concerning, but that doesn’t mean that Pennsylvanians should worry that their votes are at risk,” said Wendy Weiser, vice president for democracy at the Brennan Center for Justice. “Voters can vote with confidence that their ballot will be received and it will be counted as cast, and at this point it is noise to try and shake people’s faith or to tee up post-election challenges, whether they be routine ones or inappropriate ones,” Weiser said. While Trump and his team have raised concerns about ballot collection and counting in other battlegrounds, Pennsylvania is widely seen as the most crucial battleground state, and in 2020 it took several days for officials there to declare a winner. “Pennsylvania is cheating, and getting caught, at large scale levels rarely seen before. REPORT CHEATING TO AUTHORITIES. Law Enforcement must act, NOW!” Trump posted Wednesday on Truth Social. A day earlier at a rally in Allentown, Pa., Trump highlighted reports about potentially fraudulent voter registration forms returned in Lancaster and York counties, though he misstated the nature of the issue. “They’ve already started cheating in Lancaster. They’ve cheated. We caught them with 2,600 votes. No, we caught them cold,” Trump said. -Officials in Lancaster County announced last week they were reviewing roughly 2,500 voter registration forms due to potential fraud. But there were no fraudulent ballots involved and no indication that the registration forms are a sign of wider fraud, according to The Philadelphia Inquirer. The York Daily Record reported last week that York County, Pa., had also received a batch of registration forms from a third-party group and was reviewing the documents for any evidence of fraud.Later in his remarks on Tuesday, Trump spoke about the desire for some to vote on Election Day “where they can watch it actually go into that beautiful, often corrupt, machine.” Trump and his allies spent weeks after the 2020 election spreading claims that certain voting machines were rigged. Fox News eventually reached a nearly $800 million settlement with Dominion Voting Systems, one of the voting machine companies that was the subject of conspiracy theories in 2020, over false claims about the machines. The Trump campaign on Wednesday sued in Bucks County, just outside of Philadelphia, to extend in-person voting amid concerns about long lines and allegations that some voters were being disenfranchised. Later that day, a judge there extended the deadline for voters to request a mail-in ballot.
US Supreme Court approves voter purge in Virginia - In a one-paragraph order posted Wednesday, the six-justice majority on the US Supreme Court, over the dissent of the three moderate justices, effectively overruled a lower court order that would have restored some 1,600 voters summarily stricken from the official voter rolls of the Commonwealth of Virginia under a Republican-backed program targeting supposed noncitizens. The Supreme Court, Washington. [AP Photo/Alex Brandon] The lower court order would have also compelled state officials to discontinue the program and to inform local officials that voting rights must be protected. Only US citizens by birth or naturalization are entitled to cast ballots. Since losing the popular vote in 2016, Donald Trump has repeated wild, wholly fabricated accusations, echoed by his fascistic acolytes, that massive numbers of aliens vote illegally in the United States for candidates of the Democratic Party. Documented incidents of aliens voting are virtually unknown, however, because such an act by a foreign national would constitute an easily proven election crime that could result in deportation, and individual ballots have only negligible impacts on election results. Democratic candidate Kamala Harris leads Trump by more than 6 percent in Virginia, according to the 538 aggregated polling average, effectively assuring her the state’s 13 electoral votes. Hence the Supreme Court’s action will not directly impact the 2024 presidential election, which will be decided—by the counting of ballots or otherwise—in the handful of “swing states.” The ruling nevertheless underscores that the Supreme Court super-majority—comprised of Chief Justice John Roberts, Justices Clarence Thomas and Samuel Alito, and Trump nominees Neil Gorsuch, Brett Kavanaugh and Amy Coney Barrett—function as partisan enforcers for the now openly fascistic Republican Party, and will be taking whatever steps it can to insure a second Trump presidency. Last August 7, 90 days before the election, Virginia’s Republican Governor Glenn Youngkin ordered the state Department of Motor Vehicles (DMV) to identify suspected non-citizens and forward their names to local election boards on a daily basis, so that their voter registrations could be canceled, giving the victims only 14 days to verify citizenship. In some cases the voters did not even receive notice that any action had been taken. The US Department of Justice and various civil rights organizations sued as plaintiffs to enjoin Youngkin’s executive order and the Virginia officials who were implementing it. They argued that it violated the “quiet period” established under the 1993 National Voter Registration Act, which generally prohibits such systemic expunging of voter rolls during the three months before an election. In many cases, the supposed “match” between DMV records and voting records was as little as a shared name. While the plaintiffs demonstrated that several eligible voters were removed, the defendant Virginia officials never established that noncitizens were properly disqualified under the program.
Half of Gen Z voters admit to lying about their votes: Survey -- Half of Generation Z’s voters said they have lied about their votes, according to a new Axios Vibes survey by The Harris Poll. Among the Gen Z voters in the survey, 48 percent said they had previously “lied to” those with whom they are close about which candidates received their votes, more than double the 23 percent of registered voters across all age groups that said they had previously done the same. The survey took place Oct. 22-24, only a few weeks out from Election Day, which will follow a chaotic and heavily polarized campaign season. The 2024 general election brings with it multiple key Senate and House races, as well as a heated competition for the presidency between former President Trump and Vice President Harris. In the Axios and Harris survey, 22 percent of the registered voters said they might lie “to someone close” about the candidates they cast their ballot for in the 2024 election, while 78 percent said they wouldn’t. The intense polarization this election cycle might result in some staying quiet or lying on the topic of their political beliefs when around friends and family.
White House seeks to contain damage from Joe Biden 'garbage' remarks -- The White House on Wednesday sought to contain the damage from President Biden’s comments a day earlier suggesting former President Trump’s supporters were garbage, remarks the president’s team continued to argue were being misinterpreted. Press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre was hit with several questions at the top of her briefing about whether Biden had made a mistake with his comments and whether he thinks less of Americans who support Trump. After reading Biden’s explanation posted on social media, in which he said “all I meant to say” was that rhetoric spewed by a comedian during Trump’s Sunday rally was garbage, Jean-Pierre insisted Biden was not calling the former president’s supporters garbage. She said he was instead referring to off-color and distasteful jokes told during the Trump event at New York City’s Madison Square Garden that have been roundly criticized. “He has said multiple times that he is a president for all. It doesn’t matter if you live in a red state. It doesn’t matter if you live in a blue state. … It doesn’t matter who you voted for. It doesn’t matter if you voted for him or not. He is a president for all,” Jean-Pierre said, adding “hateful rhetoric” should be called out. Pressed that this isn’t the first time the White House has had to defend or clarify a Biden comment, Jean-Pierre said that “nobody here is defending.” Vice President Harris separately sought to clean up, noting Biden’s clarification. “I strongly disagree with any criticism of people based on who they vote for. You heard my speech last night and continuously throughout my career. I believe that the work I do is about representing all the people, whether they support me or not,” Harris told reporters as she departed for a three-state campaign swing. “And as president of the United States, I will be a president for all Americans, whether you vote for me or not.” Biden’s comments distracted attention from Harris’s speech Tuesday night on the White House Ellipse, where she issued warnings about Trump’s attempts to divide Americans as part of her campaign’s closing argument. Harris in her speech said Trump has “spent a decade trying to keep the American people divided and afraid of each other” and that he would exacerbate polarization if elected to a second term.
Donald Trump rides in garbage truck in effort to seize on Biden comment - Former President Trump on Wednesday climbed into a campaign-themed garbage truck in his motorcade in Wisconsin in an effort to draw attention to comments made by President Biden in which he seemingly called Trump supporters “garbage.” “How do you like my garbage truck? This truck is in honor of Kamala and Joe Biden,” Trump said from the passenger seat of the truck, which was adorned with a Trump campaign sticker and Trump flag. Trump campaign staff widely shared photos of the truck and the former president in the passenger seat as photographers snapped pictures. The campaign has tried to capitalize on outrage among Trump supporters over Biden’s remark, even as Vice President Harris has distanced herself from the comment. “First of all, he clarified his comments but let me be clear: I strongly disagree with any criticism of people based on who they vote for,” Harris told reporters earlier Wednesday. Biden sparked backlash Tuesday night when he appeared to compare Trump’s supporters to garbage while commenting on a racist joke a comedian made at a Trump rally days earlier likening Puerto Rico to an “island of garbage.” The White House, in a statement, argued that the president was being misinterpreted and had been referring to the rhetoric at Trump’s Madison Square Garden rally Sunday as “garbage,” not the Republican’s supporters. It also provided a fuller transcript of the comment, which included an apostrophe with “supporter’s,” to indicate Biden was referring to comedian Tony Hinchcliffe’s “demonization of Latinos” as “garbage.” Hinchcliffe delivered a comedy set at Trump’s New York City rally, during which he mocked Latinos, Jews and Black men and made a joke calling Puerto Rico a “floating island of garbage.” A video clip of Biden’s remarks also circulated and quickly went viral. “The only garbage I see floating out there is his supporters,” Biden appears to say in the clip. “His, his demonization of Latinos is unconscionable, and it’s un-American. It’s totally contrary to everything we’ve done, everything we’ve been.” Numerous Republicans compared the remarks to then-Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton’s2016 comments when she said some of the former president’s supporters were “deplorables.” Trump himself has faced scrutiny for his rhetoric toward his opponents, who he has described as “the enemy from within” and “sick people.” He has has also at recent rallies referred to the U.S. as a “garbage can” for the world, citing the surge in immigration in recent years.
AP reports White House altered Biden ‘garbage’ transcript, drawing rebuke from stenographer - White House officials changed the transcript of President Biden’s comments in which he appeared to compare former President Trump’s supporters to “garbage,” prompting pushback from the office tasked with documenting the president’s comments, The Associated Press reported.Biden sparked backlash on Tuesday when, on a call with a Latino advocacy group, he weighed in on a racist joke from a comedian at a Trump rally likening Puerto Rico to a “floating island of garbage.”As audio and video clips of the gaffe began circulating, the White House issued in statement, arguing the president was being misinterpreted and had been referring to the rhetoric at Trump’s Madison Square Garden rally Sunday, not to Trump’s supporters, as “garbage.”It also provided a fuller transcript of the comment, which included an apostrophe with “supporter’s,” to indicate Biden was referring to comedian Tony Hinchcliffe’s “demonization of Latinos” as “garbage.”And Biden himself took to social media to say he “referred to the hateful rhetoric about Puerto Rico spewed by Trump’s supporter at his Madison Square Garden rally as garbage—which is the only word I can think of to describe it. His demonization of Latinos is unconscionable. That’s all I meant to say.”But The Associated Press late Thursday reported the transcript prepared by stenographers referred to “supporters” without an apostrophe. The change was made after press aides conferred with Biden about his remarks, the AP reported.The head of the stenographers’ office wrote, in an email obtained by the AP, that the press office’s handling of the issue was “a breach of protocol and spoliation of transcript integrity between the Stenography and Press Offices.”“If there is a difference in interpretation, the Press Office may choose to withhold the transcript but cannot edit it independently,” the supervisor wrote in the email obtained by the AP.“Our Stenography Office transcript — released to our distro, which includes the National Archives — is now different than the version edited and released to the public by Press Office staff,” they added.The White House did not immediately respond to a request for comment, but senior deputy press secretary Andrew Bates told The Associated Press that Biden “confirmed in his tweet on Tuesday evening that he was addressing the hateful rhetoric from the comedian at Trump’s Madison Square Garden rally. That was reflected in the transcript.”
Robinhood launches betting on 2024 presidential election --Digital trading platform Robinhood will allow customers to place bets on the outcome of the presidential race through event-specific trading contracts.The new product will let customers pick contracts associated with victories for either Vice President Harris or former President Trump. “Customers will be able to trade based on their prediction for ‘who will win the 2024 presidential election.’ There will be two contracts to choose from — one for Kamala Harris and one for Donald Trump,” the company said in a Monday news release.Shares of Robinhood were up more than 3 percent during the Monday trading session, rising to $27.95 as of 2:13PM.The new trading contracts from Robinhood are a type of derivative offered through Robinhood Derivatives, LLC, a futures commission merchant registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), the company said.Derivatives are a type of investment based on the value of an underlying asset — in this case, one of the contracts associated with an election win for Trump or Harris.“We believe event contracts give people a tool to engage in real-time decision-making, unlocking a new asset class that democratizes access to events as they unfold,” Robinhood said.A federal judge in September decided to allow betting on elections through the use of derivatives, delivering a blow to regulators at the CFTC. The decision was affirmed by the U.S. District Court for the District of Columbia in October.In May, CFTC Chair Rostin Behnam commented on how his agency defined gaming as including “the outcome of a political contest, the outcome of an awards contest,” and “the outcome of a game in which one or more athletes compete.”Interest in retail betting platforms has been increasing in recent years.Americans bet $119.84 billion on sports in 2023, an increase of 27.5 percent from 2022, according to the American Gaming Association’s commercial gaming revenue tracker, as reported by S&P Global.
Trump transition team leader named in WWE ‘ring boys’ lawsuit -Linda McMahon, who is co-leading former President Trump’s transition team, is named in a new lawsuit accusing World Wrestling Entertainment (WWE) leaders of allowing years of sexual abuse of young boys by a ringside announcer.McMahon was sued along with her husband, Vince McMahon, WWE and its parent company, TKO Group Holdings. She left WWE, which she co-founded along with her husband, in 2009 to run for a Senate seat in Connecticut. Linda McMahon was also the Small Business Administrator under Trump.The plaintiffs, five sexual assault survivors who were 12 and 13 years old at the time, allege WWE and its leaders knowingly allowed announcer Mel Phillips, who died in 2012, to groom young boys after hiring them to assist the ring crew with errands, luring them in under the guise they’d meet professional wrestlers.“Thanks to the bravery of our clients, we finally have a chance to hold accountable those who allowed and enabled the open, rampant sexual abuse of these young boys,” Greg Gutzler, a partner at DiCello Levitt, who is leading the litigation, said in a statement. “That so many were aware of the sexual abuse of the Ring Boys and did nothing to prevent or stop it is simply unconscionable.”The Hill has reached out to the WWE and Trump campaign for comment on the lawsuit. An attorney for Vince McMahon told USA Today the negligence claims were “absurd, defamatory and utterly meritless”
Supreme Court ignites wave of lawsuits against federal regulations - Major businesses and their lobbying groups have seized on a set of recent Supreme Court decisions that sharply limit the government’s regulatory powers, aiming to advance dozens of lawsuits that could invalidate a vast array of federal climate, education, health and labor rules.The moves underscore the lasting significance of the justices’ findings — and the risks to President Joe Biden’s signature economic policies — ahead of an election in which the two candidates have presented starkly different visions for the future of federal regulations.
Why cryptocurrency owners could impact the U.S. presidential election - For the first time ever, cryptocurrency could play a role in choosing the next U.S. president. As digital currencies have become more mainstream, crypto investors are emerging as a key new voting bloc. Anywhere from 7% to 21% of Americans own crypto — that equates to 18 million on the low end, and roughly 50 million on the high end. According to research from crypto exchange Gemini, 73% say a political candidate's stance toward the industry will influence their vote. The potential for crypto voters to move the needle is particularly noteworthy in swing states. Organizations like Stand with Crypto, a pro-crypto Political Action Committee are signing up "crypto advocates" in critical battleground states. In fact, Arizona and Georgia each have three times as many of these advocates than the number of votes President Biden won by in 2020. "More and more people are getting into digital assets every year. The product is here and not going away," said Patrick Gerhart, president of banking operations for digital bank Telcoin. "Understanding voters and their needs will be vital to any politician." That growing influence is a reality the crypto industry is looking to capitalize on this election. FairShake, a PAC supported by big digital asset players like Coinbase and Ripple, has raised over $200 million to help elect pro-crypto candidates. The next four years will play a crucial role in shaping regulation, so the industry is spending big. "Ideally, the administration is not only pro-crypto, but also knowledgeable," Gerhart said. "An administration that is savvy in this realm will not only help the day-to-day users of digital assets, but also the regulators." The presidential candidates are taking notice. Donald Trump is actively courting the community, styling himself as the first pro-crypto leader. While he once labeled the space a scam, the former president has pledged to establish a bitcoin reserve and ease regulations. Trump even headlined the largest bitcoin conference in the world, though some crypto advocates question whether he will make good on these promises. In contrast, the Biden-Harris administration is generally viewed as anti-crypto. Regulatory action and vetoed bipartisan legislation have raised concerns among advocates, who feel the current leadership does not fully understand or support the industry's potential. "The Biden administration will likely be remembered as one of the most politically unfriendly toward the crypto industry," said Todd Ruoff, the CEO of Autonomys, a decentralized data network. "A lack of clear regulatory guidelines has created uncertainty, stifled innovation and driven some businesses out of the U.S." Although Vice President Kamala Harris has engaged with crypto industry leaders, she has not announced any campaign policies. It has left many in the sector feeling uncertain what a Harris presidency would mean for the future of crypto. "Trump has struck a recurring and more favorable tone," Ruoff said. "Neither candidate may be the crypto industry's dream, but it remains hopeful one might be less of a nightmare than the other." While the 2024 election might be the first time the crypto vote matters, it is unlikely to be the last. Candidates who embrace the shift could find themselves shaping both the future of the industry and their political fortunes.
Coinbase to give another $25M to Fairshake in 2025 --Cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase plans to give another $25 million to pro-crypto super PAC Fairshake in 2025 to support its efforts in the next election cycle, the company announced Wednesday. The announcement comes less than a week before the 2024 election, a decision that Faryar Shirzad, Coinbase’s chief policy officer, said was intentional. “From when we initially launched our political effort, I think we committed ourselves to be in it for the long haul,” Shirzad told The Hill. “As the Election Day was coming along, we thought it was important to reiterate our commitment to be in the fight for the next election cycle and beyond.” Coinbase also plans to help boost membership in Stand With Crypto, the pro-crypto nonprofit it helped launch last year, ahead of the 2026 midterm elections, the exchange said. It hopes to more than double the number of advocates working with the group from 1.8 million to 4 million. “I think the timing is really to demonstrate that crypto is here to stay, that crypto is committed to engaging, regardless of who wins the majority this year or the presidency this year,” said Kara Calvert, Coinbase’s head of U.S. policy. Coinbase donated $70.5 million to the super PAC in the 2023-2024 cycle, campaign finance records show. It is one of the super PAC’s biggest contributors, alongside crypto firm Ripple and venture capital firm Andreessen Horowitz. Digital assets, like crypto, have taken on a more prominent role in the 2024 race, with both former President Trump and Vice President Harris campaigning on the issue, although to different extents. “We feel very good about the impact that we’ve had to date,” Shirzad said. “I think the fact that we’ve gotten candidates at all levels, all the way to the presidential level, to talk about crypto and think about it constructively has been really heartening.” Despite once dismissing crypto as a “scam,” Trump has now fully embraced the industry, vowing to make the United States the “crypto capital of the planet” if he wins in November. He and his sons also launched a crypto platform called World Liberty Financial in September. Harris has also signaled more openness to crypto, although she has not been quite as vocal about the issue as her opponent. She offered one of her strongest statements yet in September, telling Wall Street donors she plans to “encourage innovative technologies like AI and digital assets while protecting investors and consumers.” Harris offered some additional insight into her potential approach to the issue in her Opportunity Agenda for Black Men earlier this month, promising to support “a regulatory framework for cryptocurrency and other digital assets so Black men who invest in and own these assets are protected.” Harris’s comments represent a welcome shift for the industry, which has frequently expressed frustration with the Biden administration regarding the Securities and Exchange Commission’s approach to regulation and enforcement.
FTX's Nishad Singh gets no jail time, 3 years supervised release for role in crypto fraud --Former FTX executive Nishad Singh was sentenced to time served and three years of supervised release on Wednesday, becoming the fourth ex-employee of the collapsed crypto exchange to be punished. Singh was also ordered to forfeit $11 billion.Singh faced a maximum sentence of 75 years but New York Judge Lewis Kaplan noted his cooperation with the government as "remarkable" and said he was entirely persuaded that Singh's involvement with the fraud was far more limited than that of FTX founder Sam Bankman-Fried or Caroline Ellison, the former CEO of sister hedge fund Alameda Research.Ellison was the star witness in the prosecution of Bankman-Fried and recently received a two-year prison sentence.Singh, who was FTX's head of engineering, pleaded guilty early last year to six criminal charges, including conspiracy to commit securities fraud, conspiracy to commit money laundering and conspiracy to violate campaign finance laws.On Wednesday, Singh delivered a statement to the Court and said in a soft voice that he had strayed from his values and didn't expect forgiveness. He said that assisting in the government's investigation gave him purpose. Just before the hearing began, Singh was alone, pacing the elevator bank, as he rehearsed his statement from a single printed page.FTX spiraled into bankruptcy in Nov. 2022, after the crypto exchange couldn't meet customers' withdrawal demands and allegedly stole $8 billion in client funds. In March, Bankman-Fried was sentenced to 25 years in prison and ordered to pay $11 billion.Andrew Goldstein, Singh's attorney and a former assistant U.S. attorney for the Southern District of New York, said that Singh became a participant in FTX's wrongdoing at a very late stage and cited his extensive cooperation with the government, including testifying at Bankman-Fried's trial last year.Prosecutors noted that they met with Singh on at least 24 occasions for multiple hours and that he demonstrated "earnest remorse and eagerness to assist," as well as "brought to the Government's attention criminal conduct that the Government was not aware of and, in some cases, may have never discovered but for Singh's cooperation." Nicolas Roos, one of the prosecutors in the trial, noted that the campaign finance scheme was "totally unknown" by the government and that Singh "exclusively brought" details of the arrangement to the government.Bankman-Fried was originally charged with using stolen customer money to make $100 million in campaign contributions ahead of the 2022 mid-term elections.Roos told Judge Kaplan that leniency "would send an important message."In Kaplan's reading of the sentencing, he told the defendant, "You did the right thing."More than 30 of Singh's friends and family members filled the pews of courtroom on the 21st floor of the Manhattan courthouse. His fiancee, parents and brothers were seated together in the front row.More than 100 people submitted letters on Singh's behalf, including one from Bankman-Fried's brother, Gabe, who called him "one of the kindest people [he has] ever known." He asked Judge Kaplan to show Singh "the same compassion he has shown others his entire life."John Ray, who took over as FTX CEO after the bankruptcy filing in 2022, also submitted a letter on Singh's behalf, saying he had provided the debtors with valuable assistance and cooperation throughout the bankruptcy proceedings. Ray said Singh made substantial productions of documents, and he voluntarily returned Bahamian real estate purchased with FTX funds.
Elon Musk Fans Are Losing So Much Money to Crypto Scams -- Elon Musk isn’t just the richest person in the world, he’s also an investor in cryptocurrency. And the fact that Musk very publicly promotes crypto means a lot of people on social media don’t find it suspicious when they see videos of the billionaire promising to make them rich with some shady crypto investment. Deepfake videos of Musk hawking crypto are incredibly common on sites like Instagram, YouTube, TikTok, Facebook, and X, leading people to lose obscene sums of money to scammers. And Gizmodo has obtained official complaints with the often shocking stories and we’re publishing them below. Gizmodo filed a Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) request with the FTC to get complaints sent to the federal agency about crypto scams that pretend to be affiliated with Musk. We obtained 247 complaints, all filed between Feb. and Oct. of this year, and they’re filled with stories of people who believed they were watching ads for authentic crypto investments sanctioned by Musk on social media. The ads sometimes featured the names of Musk’s various companies, like SpaceX, Tesla, and X, while other times they utilized Musk’s association with neo-fascist presidential candidate Donald Trump. Musk, of course, endorsed Trump over the summer and has donated over $100 million to his own super PAC to get the former president re-elected. Some people in the complaints believed they were talking directly with Musk, a sadly common story that has popped up in news reports before. But they weren’t talking with Musk, of course. They were communicating with scammers engaging in what’s called pig butchering—the name for a type of fraud popularized in the mid-2010s where scammers extract as much money as possible through flattery and promises of tremendous profits if the victim just “invests” where they’re told. There’s often a romance element to pig butchering, where the scammers pretend to be interested in a romantic relationship, but that was rare in the complaints Gizmodo obtained about Musk. More often than not, the marks are simply trying to make a quick buck and are sending money into completely fraudulent systems that make the victim think their money is sitting somewhere and growing. In reality, the public-facing portal is just smoke and mirrors with a number that changes at the whims of the scam artists.
‘Pig butchering’ scammers targeting job seekers with cryptocurrency fraud – Proofpoint threat researchers have released new insights uncovering a concerning rise in cryptocurrency scams targeting job seekers with fake job offers. For years, Pig Butcher scammers have swindled victims out of billions by luring them into fake cryptocurrency investments. Recently, Proofpoint observed a shift towards job scamming, tapping into a market of financially insecure victims.The scam exploits psychological mechanisms such as the Sunk Cost Fallacy, Loss Aversion and the Principle of Reciprocity, making it alarmingly effective, and according to Chainalysis – a cryptocurrency investigation company – these scams have already netted substantial amounts in cryptocurrency. For example, a fake site impersonating Daptone Records made over US$300,000 in just two months. Key findings from the research include:
- There has been an increase in cryptocurrency fraud using fake job lures, impersonating well-known organisations.
- These begin with unsolicited messages on social media, SMS, or messaging apps such as WhatsApp and Telegram promising work-from-home opportunities, exploiting the popularity of remote jobs.
- Victims are directed to register on malicious websites, often requiring referral codes. Once registered, victims perform tasks like fake reviews or product orders.
- Eventually, victims encounter ‘errors’ requiring them to pay into fake accounts, lured by promises of bonuses.
- A high confidence that these scams are linked to ‘Pig Butchering’, a romance-based cryptocurrency investment fraud: the job fraud offers smaller but more frequent returns for scammers compared to traditional Pig Butchering.
- Scammers leverage brand recognition instead of long romance scams and use flexible platforms for various lure types.
In June 2024, the FBI issued a warning about these fraudulent job scams originating on mobile devices. To protect against these scams, Proofpoint recommends vigilance regarding unsolicited job offers, never providing money to supposed employers and spreading awareness.In conclusion, the report found that cryptocurrency investment and job-related scams are extremely prevalent and use sophisticated social engineering techniques to convince people they are legitimate. Just like confidence scammers have done for centuries, fraudsters continue to promise easy money to unsuspecting targets to swindle them. To protect against these types of scams, Proofpoint recommends the following:
- Remain vigilant about unsolicited job offers, no matter the platform or application on which it is received. These fraudsters often use social media and SMS, but similar techniques have been observed in email as well.
- Never provide any money to a person who claims to be an employer. While this particular scam relies on the target paying into a fake job website, Proofpoint has observed other job scams that ask for payment for alleged goods and services like computer equipment to conduct advance fee fraud (AFF).
- Remember the old adage: If it seems too good to be true, it probably is.
- Spread the word. Knowledge is power when fighting scams.
Bitcoin Blackmail: Online Scammers Target Santa Barbara Residents - The rise of untraceable cryptocurrencies, like Bitcoin, may be causing an uptick in online scams throughout California — and some of these scammers’ current victims are Santa Barbara residents. Picture this: You receive a text message from an unknown phone number with an image of your own home attached. You respond, worried that this stranger now knows where you live. And to your horror, they tell you they’ve hacked your phone, accessing your videos, photos, and search history. Then, the mystery hacker tells you they’re going to send all of your most personal content to your contacts, possibly damaging friendships or social connections. But they offer you a solution. They tell you that if you send them $2,000 through Bitcoin, the problem goes away. They leave you, your phone, your home, and your friends alone for a hefty price if you’ll only pay up. This horror story is increasingly becoming a reality for a number of Santa Barbara residents being targeted by online fraudsters. But it’s just a scammer, not a stalker or hacker, said Sergeant Bryan Kerr, a public information officer with the Santa Barbara Police Department. “The scammer seems to be making baseless claims,” said Kerr. “Street images used in the scam can come from various sources such as Google Maps.” Kerr added that none of the threats had been acted upon: “Phones that have been involved in the scam show no evidence of being hacked.” The creepy stalkers are virtual con artists, preying on residents who may be caught off-guard by threats that have been found to be baseless so far. If you have been targeted by these online tricksters, you may report the scam to the Santa Barbara Police Department here. At UC Santa Barbara, the university’s Police Department is investigating similar reports, in which scammers call victims pretending to be police officers or government officials, demanding money through online platforms like Venmo and Apple Pay. Scammers use fear tactics and public information to make threats seem personal and urgent, pushing victims to pay through hard-to-trace virtual platforms. Recognizing the common warning signs — like unsettling photos, demands for cryptocurrency, ominous messages from unknown contacts, and claims of hacked devices — are ways to avoid falling prey to these schemes. Local authorities are actively investigating these incidents, urging everyone to report suspicious messages and avoid engaging with cyber scammers.
Hidalgo County residents accused of running sham cryptocurrency company -- Three Hidalgo County residents have been charged with running a cryptocurrency company, stealing from its investors for personal use and then attempting to hide the alleged stolen funds by avoiding paying taxes to the federal government. Authorities arrested Oscar Zarate on Friday and Wilfred Gerard Lowe on Wednesday on a three-count indictment accusing them of the scheme. The name of the third suspect remains redacted in the partially unsealed indictments. The indictment said that in 2016, Lowe and the unidentified suspect entered into a partnership to create Timi Group, also known as Timi, a company that claimed to be in development of cryptocurrency for sale and exchange. The following year, Lowe and the unidentified individual presented to potential investors, offering an opportunity to claim equity in the company by purchasing its cryptocurrency, which would be known as Timicoin, “as part of the initial coin offering (ICO) before it was released on the public cryptocurrency market.” “Timicoin was never fully developed or created,” the indictment stated. In November 2017, Lowe and the unidentified suspect approached Zarate, who had an existing cryptocurrency clientele, and asked him to recruit investors for Timi. Zarate agreed and began recruiting in 2018, according to the indictment. On March 20, 2018, the unidentified suspect registered the Timi Group and registered it as a “sole proprietorship,” meaning income related to the operation would be reported in their tax return. From 2017 through 2019, the suspects received more than $3.8 million from the alleged scheme and they never claimed any of the income on their tax returns for the period. “It was a purpose of the conspiracy for the Defendants, co-conspirators, and others known and unknown, to defraud the IRS and fail to file tax returns to avoid reporting illicit proceeds from the Timicoin investor scheme,” the indictment stated. Federal prosecutors say the suspects offered presentations to potential investors in Texas, California and other locations across the nation. “During these presentations, the Defendants claimed they were in the process of developing a cryptocurrency, and new investors could purchase equity in the company through early access to purchase the cryptocurrency – Timicoin,” the indictment stated. The investors were told they would receive 70% of the proceeds from their investment in the business. Funds from the investors were deposited and moved through several bank accounts, according to the indictment. Those funds were then spent by the suspects on personal expenses “and were distributed as what were purported as substantial commissions to Timi investor recruiters.” Those personal expenses included home renovations, expensive jewelry, luxury vehicles and designer items, according to federal prosecutors.
Man's Lookalike Brother Fools SoFi's Online ID Verification For $52K Loan He Lost To Crypto Scam - A unique case of identity theft has emerged, revealing how a determined scammer exploited an online bank's verification process to steal a $52,000 loan, only to lose the entire sum to a cryptocurrency scam. ABC 7 News's 7 On Your Side investigative team uncovered the details after receiving an anonymous package from Manila, Philippines. The sender, claiming to be the hacker, confessed to stealing a San Francisco man's identity to secure a loan in his name. The case sheds light on the vulnerability of digital banking and the devastating consequences for victims of identity theft. Hacker Claims Identity Theft Was Meant to "Help" Expose Security Flaws According to ABC 7 News, the package sent to 7 On Your Side contained a letter from the hacker, who went by the alias "Killian" and claimed to be from Nunavut, Canada. Killian confessed to stealing the victim's identity to expose flaws in SoFi's online verification systems and help the victim understand the ease of such fraud. The parcel included sensitive documents—copies of the victim's driver's licence, Social Security numbers, address, and contact information. The hacker had also obtained private data such as Zoom call screenshots and banking details. These materials indicated that Killian accessed public records, including the victim's employment information at the University of California, to strengthen his application for the loan. The hacker's letter mentioned that securing a loan under the victim's name was facilitated by his excellent credit score, making him "an easy target." 7 On Your Side reached out to the victim, who expressed disbelief and fear upon learning of the identity theft. "It was surreal," he said. "They had my driver's licence, old addresses, phone numbers from a decade ago... it was like something out of a movie." This revelation made the victim realise the extent of the breach, leading him to take immediate steps to protect himself. He closed his bank accounts, wiped his smartphone, and began managing his finances through his wife's accounts to avoid further exposure. Despite the hacker's claim of a "helpful intent," the victim's financial and personal security were severely compromised. He reported feeling uneasy, particularly with the knowledge that multiple data breaches had exposed him to such a targeted attack. Yet, the hacker encouraged him to make the case public, supposedly to help other people recognise digital banking vulnerabilities. SoFi, one of the leading digital banks, received a similar package from the hacker. However, the bank's internal investigation concluded there was no fault in its processes, holding the victim accountable for repaying the loan. SoFi began sending collection warnings, demanding payments of $2,400 monthly, which the victim ignored, sparking a "delinquency" remark on his credit report. This status could harm his credit score for years, affecting future loan approvals, rental applications, and even job prospects, as many entities rely on credit reports for verification. The victim discovered the loan only after receiving a loan statement two weeks after approval. Surprised, he initially suspected a mistake, especially as the loan and inquiry didn't appear on his credit report. He disputed the claim, prompting SoFi to launch an investigation, but the bank ultimately maintained there was no evidence of fraud. Under California law, banks are required to investigate fraud allegations thoroughly, and victims have the right to request detailed records. However, SoFi's electronic ID verification process relies solely on uploading a government ID and a real-time video, which the hacker manipulated. SoFi provided the victim only with a "Truth in Lending" statement and a copy of the loan agreement with an electronic signature, which he argued could easily be forged.
Ohio bill would allow state taxes paid in cryptocurrency | Crain's Cleveland Business -- A lawmaker has introduced a bill in the Ohio Senate that would effectively restore something reminiscent of OhioCrypto.com, the short-lived website that enabled the state to accept tax payments via cryptocurrency several years ago. Senate Bill 317 would also “expressly permit” state universities and pension funds to invest in cryptocurrencies should they choose to do so, according to the bill’s primary sponsor, Sen. Niraj Antani, R–Miamisburg.But whether this legislation — which no one really seemed to ask for — channels any momentum before the current general assembly concludes at the end of this year is to be seen. In particular, SB 317 would require “all political subdivisions to accept cryptocurrency, which would include bitcoin and others, as a form of payment for state and local taxes and fees,” according to an announcement about it. “Cryptocurrency is not just the future, but it’s the present of our 21st century economy,” Antani said in a statementabout the bill. “If we want to encourage innovation and free enterprise in Ohio, we should do everything we can to normalize (the) use of cryptocurrencies. By allowing Ohioans to pay their taxes and fees with cryptocurrency, we will be on the cutting edge.”Antani did not respond to several messages at his office asking him to discuss SB 317.The senator’s current term ends this year, and he announced long ago that he did not plan to seek re-election.A review of Antani’s latest campaign finance reports does not indicate that he’s received contributions from any overtly pro-crypto groups in the last couple of years.While having a system in place for Ohioans to pay taxes via cryptocurrency might be progressive in terms of how it positions the state as embracing digital currency, this was actually tried several years ago.In November 2018, at the tail end of his term, former Ohio Treasurer Josh Mandel launched OhioCrypto.com as a portal to accept tax payments in bitcoin or other digital currencies.When Mandel was succeeded by Robert Sprague the following year, the treasurer’s office revisited the legality of that website. An internal review determined that OhioCrypto.com could not just be willed into existence but required approval from the State Board of Deposit, so the website was suspended in October 2019.An opinion from the Ohio attorney general the following month effectively agreed with the treasurer’s office in determining that OhioCrypto.com constituted a “financial transaction device” under existing statutes and that the state Board of Deposit must, therefore, authorize it first. Fewer than 10 businesses paid taxes through OhioCrypto.com before it was shut down, according to Sprague’s office.
Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) Projects Are Foundering In Five-Eye Nations. What Gives? -- Canada and Australia shelve plans for retail CBDCs while the US could soon become the first country to explicitly ban the central bank from issuing a CBDC. At the time of writing that post, around 90 countries and currency unions were in the process of exploring a CBDC, according to the Atlantic Council’s CBDC tracker. Today, just two and a half years later, that number has increased to 134, representing 98% of global GDP. Around 66 of those countries are in the advanced stage of exploration—development, pilot, or launch.But they do not include the United States. In fact, the US is not just trailing most countries on CBDC development; it could soon become the first country to explicitly ban the central bank from issuing a CBDC, to the undisguised horror of certain think tanks.In May, the US House of Representatives passed HR 5403, also known as the “CBDC Anti-Surveillance State Act.” The bill, first introduced in September 2023 and sponsored by US Senator Ted Cruz, proposes amendments to the Federal Reserve Act to prohibit the US Federal Reserve from issuing CBDCs. It also seeks to protect the right to financial privacy and prevent the U.S. government from “weaponizing their financial system against their own citizens.” If passed, HR 5403 will prevent the Fed from:
- Offering products or services directly to individuals.
- Maintaining accounts on behalf of individuals.
- Issuing a central bank digital currency or any digital asset that is substantially similar under any other name or label directly to an individual.
To become law, the bill still needs to clear the Senate, which is by not means guaranteed. But it is likely to receive added impetus from a new Trump administration, assuming Trump wins the election and isn’t assassinated before taking office or thwarted by a colour revolution, as Lambert posited yesterday. In January, Trump announced, to thunderous applause, at a New Hampshire that as president, he would “never allow the creation of a central bank digital currency.” Such a currency, he said, “would give a federal government, our federal government, absolute control over your money.” Even a Kamala Harris administration is unlikely to fast-track a digital dollar, with progress set to continue to lag other jurisdictions, according to an article in The Banker. US voters — particularly Republican ones — are increasingly aware — and wary — of the threat posed by CBDCs, as demonstrated by the crowd’s reaction to Trump’s announcement. This, if nothing else, stands as testament to the power of social and independent media, and goes a long way to explaining why governments across the West are trying desperately to muzzle them.
Google CEO says more than 25 percent of company’s new code written by AI --More than a quarter of Google’s new code is being generated by artificial intelligence (AI), CEO Sundar Pichai revealed during Tuesday’s third-quarter earnings call for the leading tech company.“We’re also using AI internally to improve our coding processes, which is boosting productivity and efficiency,” Pichai said during the call. “Today, more than a quarter of all new code at Google is generated by AI, then reviewed and accepted by engineers. This helps our engineers do more and move faster.”Pichai’s revelation marks the latest indication of how AI is reshaping software development as Google seeks to keep up with competitors in the space.Pichai said Google parent Alphabet’s investments in AI are “paying off.” This has included bolstering Google’s Gemini AI chatbot and AI-powered search features. “Our commitment to innovation, as well as our long-term focus and investment in AI, are paying off and driving success for the company and for our customers,” he said on the call. “We are uniquely positioned to lead in the era of AI because of our differentiated full stack approach to AI innovation, and we’re now seeing this operate at scale.” He said this “full stack” approach includes AI infrastructure with data centers, chips, and a global fiber network, along with research teams and a “broad global reach.” The company earned $26.3 billion during the most recent quarter, a 34 percent increase from a year ago, while revenue rose 15 percent from the same period last year to $88.27 billion.“Our technology leadership and AI portfolio are helping us attract new customers, win larger deals, and drive 30 percent deeper product adoption with existing customers,” Pichai said.A large part of this growth was brought by Google’s cloud business, which generated a quarterly revenue of $11.4 billion. This was up 35 percent from the same period last year, Pichai said.Pichai also boasted growth with YouTube’s combined ad and subscription revenue, which surpassed $50 billion over the past four quarters.His comments came just weeks after Google signed a deal with Kairos Power to use small modular nuclear reactors to power AI data centers.The small modular reactors are a type of next-generation nuclear reactor that have yet to be built in the U.S. but are expected to be completed between 2030 and 2035. They will produce 500 megawatts of power.Nuclear serves as a key carbon-free source of energy at a time when the tech giant is struggling to cut its emissions and reach its goal of becoming net-zero by the end of the decade. Google’s emissions rose 13 percent in 2023 and are up 48 percent since 2019.
Exclusive: Warren slams DOJ for side-stepping tougher action against TD -- Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., is blasting the Department of Justice for not punishing TD Bank Group more harshly over the Canadian bank's money-laundering failures in the United States. Sen. Elizabeth Warren said in a letter that the Department of Justice intentionally avoided threatening TD Bank's charter to operate. The Massachusetts Democrat also pressed the agency to prosecute bank executives.
Bank of America is the latest bank to face AML scrutiny --Bank of America is in discussions with several federal regulators over certain aspects of its efforts to combat money laundering and comply with economic sanctions, the Charlotte, North Carolina-based company said. BofA said it may enter into one or more public enforcement actions to resolve the issues. The megabank disclosed that regulators are looking at its anti-money-laundering and sanctions compliance. Wells Fargo was recently hit with an enforcement action over similar matters.
BankThink: The substance and process of finishing Basel are one in the same — Last week, Consumer Financial Protection Bureau Director Rohit Chopra took some questions from reporters after an appearance at DC Fintech Week. Most of the questions were about the bureau's newly finalized and just-as-newly litigated 1033 open banking rule, a much-anticipated regulation that was the talk of the town all week and the occasion for his visit to the conference.The revised edition of the Basel III endgame capital rules has been stuck in limbo at the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. board of directors. The issue there seems to be about the process of reproposal — but the process dictates the substance of the rule.
BankThink: Don't ask for lower capital requirements; demand better capital rules -Following banking crises — large (think global financial crisis), and small (think Silicon Valley Bank et al.) — opportunists tend to seize on narratives that advance ideological agendas instead of cultivating level-headed analytical responses that directly address the risks and capital policyflaws that each crisis reveals. Banks are not likely to see their regulatory capital requirements decline any time soon. But the way capital levels are calculated could be made more reflective of real risks.
The next president needs to overhaul bank regulation for the modern era --Nearly 15 years after the passage of the Dodd-Frank Act, the post-financial crisis reforms have come full circle: Legislation intended to check the power of large banks has resulted in even larger banks. Policymakers seem to have concluded that a bank that is "too big to fail" is easier to control. The costs of this concession, besides the increasingly unknown risks that these massive institutions present, are higher fees and lower quality financial services for everyone. This approach also has protected large firms from competition and dramatically reduced their incentive to innovate. The good news is that the next administration has a unique opportunity for a policy reset and to set a new path for America's financial services industry. By putting technology at the center of this reset, our regulatory policy can evolve to encourage more competition in the market and lay the groundwork for a system that better serves the needs of all Americans. The next administration should bring in new, tech-savvy leaders at bank regulatory agencies and give them the ability to rethink oversight in a way that reflects the technological innovations transforming the banking industry.
Republican lawmakers urge caution in BaaS regulation — Republicans members of the House Financial Services Committee — including committee Chair Patrick McHenry. R-N.C. — sent a letter to federal regulators supporting innovation in bank-fintech partnerships and urging them to look to state regulators for guidance. House Republicans called on regulators to balance the need for more rules around bank-fintech partnerships with the need to foster innovation and consumer access and emphasized collaboration with state regulators.
Rep. Torres 'cautiously optimistic' about passage of trigger leads bill — One of the banking sector's top allies in Congress said he is "cautiously optimistic" about a bill that would rein in so-called trigger leads related to mortgage borrowers. Representative Ritchie Torres, a Democrat from New York, said leadership on the House Financial Services Committee is supportive of the legislation, which would limit the ability of credit-reporting agencies to sell homebuyer information to financial service providers.
'Time to fight back': Jamie Dimon hammers away on regulation — Jamie Dimon pushed back forcefully against what he described as an "onslaught" of regulation during a fireside chat Monday at the American Bankers Association's Annual Convention. The longtime JPMorgan Chase CEO discussed the Basel III endgame capital rules, interchange fees and open banking during a fireside chat at the American Bankers Association's annual conference.
Chase sues 4 customers over TikTok check fraud 'glitch' --On Monday, JPMorgan Chase filed four civil lawsuits against people who allegedly engaged in check fraud, apparently in connection with a a series of TikTok videos bank customers made about a supposed "glitch" that let them steal money from its ATMs. The defendants owe the bank between $90,000 and $300,000, according to the lawsuits. The supposed glitch was simply check fraud. The bank is suing four people who allegedly took as much as $290,000 from the bank as part of the scheme.
JPMorgan begins suing customers over 'infinite money glitch' - JPMorgan Chase has begun suing customers who allegedly stole thousands of dollars from ATMs by taking advantage of atechnical glitch that allowed them to withdraw funds before a check bounced.The bank on Monday filed lawsuits in at least three federal courts, taking aim at some of the people who withdrew the highest amounts in the so-called infinite money glitch that wentviral on TikTok and other social media platforms in late August.A Houston case involves a man who owes JPMorgan $290,939.47 after an unidentified accomplice deposited a counterfeit $335,000 check at an ATM, according to the bank. "On August 29, 2024, a masked man deposited a check in Defendant's Chase bank account in the amount of $335,000," the bank said in the Texas filing. "After the check was deposited, Defendant began withdrawing the vast majority of the ill-gotten funds."JPMorgan, the biggest U.S. bank by assets, is investigating thousands of possible cases related to the "infinite money glitch," though it hasn't disclosed the scope of associated losses. Despite the waning use of paper checks as digital forms of payment gain popularity, they're still a major avenue for fraud, resulting in $26.6 billion in losses globally last year, according to Nasdaq's Global Financial Crime Report.The infinite money glitch episode highlights the risk that social media can amplify vulnerabilities discovered at a financial institution. Videos began circulating in late August showing people celebrating the withdrawal of wads of cash from Chase ATMs shortly after bad checks were deposited.Normally, banks only make available a fraction of the value of a check until it clears, which takes several days. JPMorgan says it closed the loophole a few days after it was discovered.The other lawsuits filed Monday are in courts including Miami and the Central District of California, and involve cases where JPMorgan says customers owe the bank sums ranging from about $80,000 to $141,000.Most cases being examined by the bank are for far smaller amounts, according to people with knowledge of the situation who declined to be identified speaking about the internal investigation. In each case, JPMorgan says its security team reached out to the alleged fraudster, but it hasn't been repaid for the phony checks, in violation of the deposit agreement that customers sign when creating an account with the bank. JPMorgan is seeking the return of the stolen funds with interest and overdraft fees, as well as lawyers' fees and, in some cases, punitive damages, according to the complaints.The lawsuits are likely to be just the start of a wave of litigation meant to force customers to repay their debts and signal broadly that the bank won't tolerate fraud, according to the people familiar. JPMorgan prioritized cases with large dollar amounts and indications of possible ties to criminal groups, they said.The civil cases are separate from potential criminal investigations; JPMorgan says it has also referred cases to law enforcement officials across the country."Fraud is a crime that impacts everyone and undermines trust in the banking system," JPMorgan spokesman Drew Pusateri said in a statement to CNBC. "We're pursuing these cases and actively cooperating with law enforcement to make sure if someone is committing fraud against Chase and its customers, they're held accountable."
Cantero ruling takes center stage in Illinois swipe fee suit -- A Supreme Court ruling from earlier this year could play a pivotal role in the banking industry's challenge to an Illinois swipe fee law. The ruling from earlier this year regarding national bank preemption is already playing a prominent role in the banking sector's challenge to a state law on charge card fees.
Ex-Trump Treasury Secretary eyes more voting power at Flagstar -- Former Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and his investment firm Liberty Strategic Capital are seeking to more than double his indirect ownership stake of Flagstar Financial — formerly New York Community Bank — to 22.9%, according to filings obtained by American Banker.
CFPB considers enforcement action against Capital One The regulatory scrutiny involves online savings accounts that allegedly deceived consumers into believing they were receiving high rates.
CFPB penalizes credit union over 'botched' digital banking upgrade - On Thursday, two federal agencies announced a penalty against VyStar Credit Union over what the agencies called a "botched rollout of a new online banking system" in May 2022, caused in part by a lack of management and governance over the vendor it selected for the project, according to the agencies. The agency said VyStar customers took on fees and credit report demerits because they could not access banking functions for months following an attempted upgrade.
CFPB threatens Meta with lawsuit over finance-related ad data -- The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau has threatened a lawsuit against Meta, the company that owns Facebook and Instagram, over the company's alleged use of financial information to target advertisements at users. The company disclosed the potential for legal action 'in the near-term' by the bureau in a recent earnings disclosure.
What the election means for the future of the CFPB -- The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau once again faces an uncertain future, with the outcome of the presidential election potentially taking the agency in radically divergent directions. The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau may face an existential threat if former President Trump is reelected, while the agency could be emboldened if Vice President Harris wins.
Townstone Financial agrees to settle redlining case - Both the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau and Townstone Financial claimed victory in the contentious anti-redlining lawsuit as the mortgage lender agreed to pay a $105,000 penalty to settle the case.The Chicago-area lender, which at first was able to get the suit quashed, agreed to end the discrimination case by paying a $105,000 fine.
Citadel redlining case shows credit unions should be under CRA -The signature federal law designed to promote economic opportunity for people and places formerly excluded from the financial system has a glaring hole. Regulators and lawmakers have fresh reason to close that hole, in the form of the Department of Justice's latest settlement of a redlining case. Leaving credit unions exempt from the Community Reinvestment Act preserves a gaping hole in regulations designed to make sure that financial services firms make loans available in underserved communities across the country.
When a bank fails after engaging in redlining, who's responsible? -- When Republic First Bank failed last spring, the New Jersey attorney general's office was already more than a year into an investigation of the Philadelphia-based bank's lending to minority borrowers. Republic First Bank allegedly discriminated against minority borrowers before it went under in April. New Jersey officials want both the acquirer of its remains, Fulton Bank, and the FDIC to assume some responsibility.
BankThink Don't fix what isn't broken at the Federal Home Loan banks - The Federal Housing Finance Agency's ongoing review of the Federal Home Loan banks has already led to some very real consequences for the local banks that use these entities for their founding purpose of supporting housing finance and community investment. The Home Loan banks have been a stable source of community bank funding for generations. An unnecessary regulatory crackdown now puts that reliability in question.
FHFA announces updates to appraisal, repurchase rules --The Federal Housing Finance Agency is updating rules governing appraisals to expand waiver access to more buyers. Positive feedback from participants in existing programs led to the decision to expand them in order to assist more lenders.
Fannie and Freddie: Single Family and Multi-Family Serious Delinquency Rates Increased in September -Single-family serious delinquencies increased slightly in September, and multi-family serious delinquencies increased. Freddie Mac reported that the Single-Family serious delinquency rate in September was 0.54%, up from 0.52% August. Freddie's rate is down slightly year-over-year from 0.55% in September 2023. This is below the pre-pandemic lows.Freddie's serious delinquency rate peaked in February 2010 at 4.20% following the housing bubble and peaked at 3.17% in August 2020 during the pandemic. Fannie Mae reported that the Single-Family serious delinquency rate in September was 0.52%, up from 0.50% in August. The serious delinquency rate is down year-over-year from 0.54% in September 2023. This is also below the pre-pandemic lows.The Fannie Mae serious delinquency rate peaked in February 2010 at 5.59% following the housing bubble and peaked at 3.32% in August 2020 during the pandemic.These are mortgage loans that are "three monthly payments or more past due or in foreclosure". Mortgages in forbearance are being counted as delinquent in this monthly report but are not reported to the credit bureaus. For Fannie, by vintage, for loans made in 2004 or earlier (1% of portfolio), 1.46% are seriously delinquent (up from 1.45% the previous month). For loans made in 2005 through 2008 (1% of portfolio), 2.15% are seriously delinquent (up from 2.11%). For recent loans, originated in 2009 through 2023 (98% of portfolio), 0.46% are seriously delinquent (up from 0.44%). So, Fannie is still working through a handful of poor performing loans from the bubble years. Multi-Family Delinquencies Increased, Fannie Rate Matches Highest Since 2011. Here are the multi-family 60+ day delinquency rate since 2006.
Lawler: Mortgage Rates Have Surged Since the Federal Reserve Cut Interest Rates Last Month Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Lawler: Mortgage Rates Have Surged Since the Federal Reserve Cut Interest Rates Last Month From housing economist Tom Lawler:Folks who expected that mortgages rates would decline when the Federal Reserve began cutting its federal funds rate target range have been dazed and confused over the last month and a half. Since the day before the Fed’s 50 bp reduction in its funds rate target on September 18, 30-year MBS yields have surged by 84 to 96 bp, while mortgage rates have jumped by 72 to 89 bp. At the same time intermediate- and longer-term Treasury yields have risen 53 to 67 bp. There are two main reasons MBS and mortgage rates have risen by more than Treasury rates over this period. First, implied interest rate volatility has surged, as many market participants were caught off-guard by the string of unexpectedly strong economic releases (and slightly higher inflation releases) following the Fed’s rate decision. For example, the BofAML MOVE index, a measure if implied interest rate volatility derived from one-month options on Treasuries across the yield curve, increased from 101.58 on September 17 to 130.92 on October 28, its highest reading since October 30, 2023. (Mortgage investors effectively write a prepayment option to home borrowers, and as such higher implied interest rate volatility increases the premium over Treasuries that investors require to compensate them for prepayment risk.)And second, MBS option-adjusted spreads, which were at the low-end of the “no Fed MBS intervention” range just prior to the Fed’s action, have since moved higher.Below are Treasury yields, MBS yields, Mortgage Rates, and the MOVE Index for 9/17/2024 and 10/28/2024, as wells as indicative 30-year fixed-rate mortgage quotes from Wells Fargo and Bank of America for the morning of October 29, 2024. The above was from housing economist Tom Lawler. As Lawler noted last week, estimates of the “Neutral” rate have been increasing. Lawler wrote:Based on an assessment of various measures, my best is that the neutral real interest rate in the US is between 1 ¾% to 2%. One of course needs to add inflation/inflation expectations to that range. If/when the Fed were to achieve its 2% inflation target, then the neutral nominal interest rate would be 3 ¾% to 4%.Factor in a normal yield curve (longer rates higher than short rates), and a more normal spread from the 10-year yield to 30-year mortgage rates, and you can see why there is a new normal range for 30-year mortgages.
MBA: Mortgage Applications Decreased in Weekly Survey --From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey -Mortgage applications decreased 0.1 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Applications Survey for the week ending October 25, 2024. The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 0.1 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 1 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index decreased 6 percent from the previous week and was 84 percent higher than the same week one year ago. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 5 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index increased 4 percent compared with the previous week and was 10 percent higher than the same week one year ago. “Mortgage applications were essentially flat last week as rates increased for the fourth time in five weeks, driven by bond market volatility in advance of the presidential election and the next FOMC meeting. The 30-year fixed rate, at 6.73 percent, was at its highest level since July 2024,” . “After a brief burst of activity in September when rates were almost 60 basis points lower, overall applications have declined 27 percent, driven by a pullback in refinances. Government refinances accounted for a large part of the decrease, dropping 12 percent over last week.” “Purchase applications increased compared to a holiday-shortened week and were 10 percent higher than a year ago. While near-term purchase application activity has weakened, we continue to expect housing demand from younger homebuyers to support purchase growth over the next few years as for-sale inventory loosens gradually.” ... The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($766,550 or less) increased to 6.73 percent from 6.52 percent, with points increasing to 0.69 from 0.64 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans The first graph shows the MBA mortgage purchase index. According to the MBA, purchase activity is up 10% year-over-year unadjusted. Purchase application activity is up about 10% from the lows in late October 2023, but still about 9% below the lowest levels during the housing bust. The second graph shows the refinance index since 1990. With higher mortgage rates, the refinance index increased significantly as mortgage rates declined last month but decreased over the last five weeks as rates moved back up.Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 4.2% year-over-year in August -S&P/Case-Shiller released the monthly Home Price Indices for August ("August" is a 3-month average of June, July and August closing prices). This release includes prices for 20 individual cities, two composite indices (for 10 cities and 20 cities) and the monthly National index. From S&P S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index Records 4.2% Annual Gain in August 2024 The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 4.2% annual return for August, down from a 4.8% annual gain in the previous month. The 10-City Composite saw an annual increase of 6.0%, down from a 6.8% annual increase in the previous month. The 20-City Composite posted a year-over-year increase of 5.2%, dropping from a 5.9% increase in the previous month. New York again reported the highest annual gain among the 20 cities with an 8.1% increase in August, followed by Las Vegas and Chicago with annual increases of 7.3% and 7.2%, respectively. Denver posted the smallest year-over-year growth of 0.7%. ... The pre-seasonally adjusted U.S. National Index, 20-City Composite, and 10-City Composite upward trends reversed in August, with a -0.1% drop for the national index, and the 20-City and 10-City Composites saw -0.3% and -0.4% returns for this month, respectively. After seasonal adjustment, the U.S. National Index posted a month-over-month increase of 0.3%, while the 20-City and 10-City Composite reported a monthly rise of 0.4% and 0.3%, respectively. “Regionally, all markets continue to remain positive, barely,” Luke continued. “Denver posted the slowest annual gain of all markets this year, dropping below Portland for the first time since the spring. The Northeast remains the best performing region, with the strongest gains for over a year. Currently, only New York, Las Vegas, and Chicago markets are at an all-time high. Comparing average gains of traditional red and blue states highlight a slight advantage for home price markets of blue states. With stronger gains in the Northeast and West than the South, blue states have outperformed red states dating back to July 2023.” The first graph shows the nominal seasonally adjusted Composite 10, Composite 20 and National indices (the Composite 20 was started in January 2000). The Composite 10 index was up 0.3% in August (SA). The Composite 20 index was up 0.4% (SA) in August. The National index was up 0.3% (SA) in August.The second graph shows the year-over-year change in all three indices.
Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 4.2% year-over-year in August; Over last 4 months, FHFA Index has increased at a 1.9% Annual Rate --Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 4.2% year-over-year in August Excerpt: S&P/Case-Shiller released the monthly Home Price Indices for August ("August" is a 3-month average of June, July and August closing prices). August closing prices include some contracts signed in April, so there is a significant lag to this data. Here is a graph of the month-over-month (MoM) change in the Case-Shiller National Index Seasonally Adjusted (SA). The MoM increase in the seasonally adjusted (SA) Case-Shiller National Index was at 0.32% (a 4.0% annual rate), This was the nineteenth consecutive MoM increase in the seasonally adjusted index. On a seasonally adjusted basis, prices increased month-to-month in 18 of the 20 Case-Shiller cities (prices declined in Tampa and Miami). Seasonally adjusted, San Francisco has fallen 6.8% from the recent peak, Phoenix is down 4.3% from the peak, Portland down 2.7%, and Denver down 2.6%.
Housing Oct 28th Weekly Update: Inventory Down 0.2% Week-over-week, Up 31.2% Year-over-year --Altos reports that active single-family inventory was down 0.2% week-over-week. Inventory is now up 49.4% from the February seasonal bottom. The first graph shows the seasonal pattern for active single-family inventory since 2015.The red line is for 2024. The black line is for 2019. Inventory was up 31.2% compared to the same week in 2023 (last week it was up 33.4%), and down 20.2% compared to the same week in 2019 (last week it was down 21.0%). Back in June 2023, inventory was down almost 54% compared to 2019, so the gap to more normal inventory levels is closing.This second inventory graph is courtesy of Altos Research. As of October 25th, inventory was at 738 thousand (7-day average), compared to 739 thousand the prior week. Mike Simonsen discusses this data regularly on Youtube.
NAR: Pending Home Sales Increase 7.4% in September; Up 2.6% Year-over-year -- From the NAR: Pending Home Sales Advanced 7.4% in September Pending home sales rose in September, according to the National Association of REALTORS®. All four major regions experienced month-over-month gains in transactions. Year-over-year, the Northeast and West registered increases while sales remained steady in the Midwest and South.The Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI)* – a forward-looking indicator of home sales based on contract signings – jumped 7.4% to 75.8 in September, the highest level since March (78.3). Year-over-year, pending transactions ascended 2.6%. An index of 100 is equal to the level of contract activity in 2001. “Contract signings rose across all regions of the country as buyers took advantage of the combination of lower mortgage rates in late summer and more inventory choices,” “Further gains are expected if the economy continues to add jobs, inventory levels grow, and mortgage rates hold steady.”... The Northeast PHSI expanded 6.5% from last month to 65.6, up 3.3% from September 2023. The Midwest index surged 7.1% to 75.0 in September, identical to the previous year. The South PHSI improved 6.7% to 89.0 in September, unchanged from a year ago. The West index ballooned by 9.8% from the prior month to 64.0, up 12.3% from September 2023. This was well above expectations. Note: Contract signings usually lead sales by about 45 to 60 days, so this would usually be for closed sales in October and November. The NAR also included their forecast: In the next two years, Yun foresees slower home price appreciation and corresponding increases in sales. “After two years of sluggish home sales in 2023 and 2024, existing-home sales are forecasted to rise to 4.47 million in 2025 and more than 5 million in 2026,” Yun said. “During the next two years, expect a slower rate of growth in home prices that’s roughly in line with the consumer price index because of additional supply reaching the market.” Yun predicts the median existing-home price will rise to $410,700 in 2025 and to $420,000 in 2026. The annual 30-year fixed mortgage rate will slide to 5.9% in 2025 but then move higher to 6.1% in 2026
HVS: Q3 2024 Homeownership and Vacancy Rates -- The Census Bureau released the Residential Vacancies and Homeownership report for Q3 2024 today. The results of this survey were significantly distorted by the pandemic in 2020.This report is frequently mentioned by analysts and the media to track household formation, the homeownership rate, and the homeowner and rental vacancy rates. This survey might show the trend, but I wouldn't rely on the absolute numbers. National vacancy rates in the third quarter 2024 were 6.9 percent for rental housing and 1.0 percent for homeowner housing. The rental vacancy rate was not statistically different from the rate in the third quarter 2023 (6.6 percent) and not statistically different from the rate in the second quarter 2024 (6.6 percent). The homeowner vacancy rate of 1.0 percent was higher than the rate in the third quarter 2023 (0.8 percent) and not statistically different from the rate in the second quarter 2024 (0.9 percent). The homeownership rate of 65.6 percent was not statistically different from the rate in the third quarter 2023 (66.0 percent) and virtually the same as the rate in the second quarter 2024 (65.6 percent). The Red dots are the decennial Census homeownership rates for April 1st, 1990, 2000, 2010, and 2020. The HVS homeownership rate was unchanged at 65.6% in Q3, from 65.6% in Q2. The results in Q2 and Q3 2020 were distorted by the pandemic and should be ignored. The HVS homeowner vacancy increased to 1.0% in Q3 from 0.9% in Q2. The homeowner vacancy rate declined sharply during the pandemic and includes homes that are vacant and for sale (so this mirrors the low but increasing levels of existing home inventory). The rental vacancy rate was increased to 6.9% in Q3 from 6.6% in Q2. This is up from the low of 5.6% in 2021 and 2022. The quarterly HVS is the timeliest survey on households, but there are many questions about the accuracy of this survey.’
Employment Report Forecasts -The October employment report will be released on Friday. The consensus is for 120,000 jobs added, and for the unemployment rate to be unchanged at 4.1%. Analysts are trying to estimate the distortion from Hurricane Milton. In September 2005, the initial BLS report showed a loss of 35 thousand jobs due to the impact of Hurricanes Katrina and Rita (Katrina hit in late August, and Rita during the reference period in September). This was eventually revised to a gain of 57 thousand (still well below the average for the year of 210 thousand per month. Milton also made landfall during the reference period, so the BLS will try to adjust for impact. The BLS released the strike report on Friday, and that showed a loss of 41 thousand jobs due to strikes (mostly Boeing). From Goldman Sachs: We expect payroll growth of 95k in October (vs. 186k 3-month average) because Big Data measures point to slower job growth, we estimate the hurricanes will subtract 40-50k this month, and the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that strikes will exert a 41k drag. These drags should have less impact on ADP employment, which we expect to rise 115k in October. We forecast an unchanged 4.1% unemployment rate. From BofA: We forecast nonfarm payrolls rose by 100k in October. Although this is below consensus, we’d still view it as a solid print, since we estimate that Hurricane Milton and the Boeing strike lowered payrolls by about 50k. ... Meanwhile, the unemployment rate should move back up to 4.2%, partly due in part to hurricane distortions.
BLS: Job Openings "Little Unchanged" at 7.4 million in September - From the BLS: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary -- The number of job openings was little changed at 7.4 million on the last business day of September, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the month, hires changed little at 5.6 million. The number of total separations was unchanged at 5.2 million. Within separations, quits (3.1 million) and layoffs and discharges (1.8 million) changed little. The following graph shows job openings (black line), hires (dark blue), Layoff, Discharges and other (red column), and Quits (light blue column) from the JOLTS. This series started in December 2000. Note: The difference between JOLTS hires and separations is similar to the CES (payroll survey) net jobs headline numbers. Note that hires (dark blue) and total separations (red and light blue columns stacked) are usually pretty close each month. This is a measure of labor market turnover. When the blue line is above the two stacked columns, the economy is adding net jobs - when it is below the columns, the economy is losing jobs. The spike in layoffs and discharges in March 2020 is labeled, but off the chart to better show the usual data. Jobs openings decreased in September to 7.44 million from 7.86 million in August. The number of job openings (black) were down 20% year-over-year. Quits were down 15% year-over-year. These are voluntary separations. (See light blue columns at bottom of graph for trend for "quits").
ADP: Private Employment Increased 233,000 in October -From ADP: ADP National Employment Report: Private Sector Employment Increased by 233,000 Jobs in October; Annual Pay was Up 4.6% – Private sector employment increased by 233,000 jobs in October and annual pay was up 4.6 percent year-over-year, according to the October ADP® National Employment ReportTM produced by the ADP Research Institute® in collaboration with the Stanford Digital Economy Lab (“Stanford Lab”). ... “Even amid hurricane recovery, job growth was strong in October,” said Nela Richardson, chief economist, ADP. “As we round out the year, hiring in the U.S. is proving to be robust and broadly resilient.” This was well above the consensus forecast of 110,000. The BLS report will be released Friday, and the consensus is for 140,000 non-farm payroll jobs added in October. Note: ADP doesn't include the Boeing strike, and probably was impacted less by the hurricanes than the BLS report.
October Employment Report: 12 thousand Jobs, 4.1% Unemployment Rate -From the BLS: Employment Situation - Total nonfarm payroll employment was essentially unchanged in October (+12,000), and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.1 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment continued to trend up in health care and government. Temporary help services lost jobs. Employment declined in manufacturing due to strike activity....The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for August was revised down by 81,000, from +159,000 to +78,000, and the change for September was revised down by 31,000, from +254,000 to +223,000. With these revisions, employment in August and September combined is 112,000 lower than previously reported. The first graph shows the jobs added per month since January 2021. Total payrolls increased by 12 thousand in October. Private payrolls decreased by 28 thousand, and public payrolls increased 40 thousand. Payrolls for August and September were revised down 112 thousand, combined. The second graph shows the year-over-year change in total non-farm employment since 1968.In October, the year-over-year change was 2.17 million jobs. Employment was up solidly year-over-year (Although the annual benchmark revision will lower the year-over-year change). The third graph shows the employment population ratio and the participation rate. The Labor Force Participation Rate decreased to 62.6% in October, from 62.7% in September. This is the percentage of the working age population in the labor force. The Employment-Population ratio decreased to 60.0% from 60.2% in September (blue line). The fourth graph shows the unemployment rate.The unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.1% in October from 4.1% in September.This was below consensus expectations, and August and September payrolls were revised down by 112,000 combined. This report was impacted by strikes and hurricanes.
October jobs report: Milton mayhem! --I expected a downdraft from the hurricanes, especially Milton, and also the Boeing strike. And boy did we get one! Let me be clear: if there were no special factors, this report would be recessionary, period. And there were some signs of real weakness in this report that do not appear to be hurricane-related. But Hurricane Milton, as well as the strike, had an impact, so take this report with a gigantic helping of salt.Here is what the BLS had to say in releatant part:“Hurricane Milton struck Florida on October 9, 2024, during the reference periods for both surveys. Prior to the storm’s landfall, there were large-scale evacuations of Florida residents.“In October, the household survey was conducted largely according to standard procedures, and response rates were within normal ranges.“The initial establishment survey collection rate for October was well below average. However, collection rates were similar in storm-affected areas and unaffected areas. A larger influence on the October collection rate for establishment data was the timing and length of the collection period. This period, which can range from 10 to 16 days, lasted 10 days in October and was completed several days before the end of the month.“…. It is likely that payroll employment estimates in some industries were affected by the hurricanes; however, it is not possible to quantify the net effect[s] … because the establishment survey is not designed to isolate effects from extreme weather events. There was no discernible effect on the national unemployment rate from the household survey.”Below is my in depth synopsis.
- 12,000 jobs added. Private sector jobs *declined* -28,000. Government jobs increased by 40,000.
- The pattern of downward revisions to the last two months resumed. August was revised down ward by -81,000, and September by -31,000, for a net decrease of -112,000.
- The alternate, and more volatile measure in the household report, showed a decrease of -368,000 jobs. On a YoY basis, this series has only risen by 216,000 jobs, which remains consistent with recession, as it has for months. On the other hand, it is an improvement from two months ago, where there was an actual YoY decline.
- Surprisingly, the U3 unemployment rate remained steady at 4.1%, which also means the “Sahm rule” recession indicator is no longer in effect. The rounding of data was particularly important this month. If we go out a couple more decimal points, the rate increased from 4.051% in September to 4.145% - almost a 0.1% increase.
- The U6 underemployment rate also remained steady at 7.7%, still 1.3% above its low of December 2022.
- Further out on the spectrum, those who are not in the labor force but want a job now declined -31,000
- the average manufacturing workweek, one of the 10 components of the Index of Leading Indicators, declined -0.1 hour to 40.6 hours. This remains down -0.9 hours from its February 2022 peak of 41.5 hours, but on the other hand is only -0.2 hours below its 18 month high.
- Manufacturing jobs declined -46,000. This is the second month in a row for this decline.
- Within that sector, motor vehicle manufacturing jobs declined -6,000.
- Truck driving declilned -100.
- Construction jobs increased 8,000.
- Residential construction jobs, which are even more leading, rose by 1,300 to another new post-pandemic high.
- Goods producing jobs as a whole declined -37,000. Because these typically decline before any recession occurs, in the absence of special factors this would be a serious red flag for oncoming recession.
- Temporary jobs, which have generally been declining late 2022, fell by another -49,000, and are down -577,000 since their peak in March 2022. This appears to be not just cyclical, but a secular change in trend.
- the number of people unemployed for 5 weeks or fewer declined -34,000 to 2,112,000.
- Average Hourly Earnings for Production and Nonsupervisory Personnel increased $.12, or +0.4%, to $30.48, for a YoY gain of +4.1%. Their post pandemic peak of 7.0% in March 2022. This was also 0.2% higher than their recent low in July. Most importantly, this continues to be significantly higher than the 2.4% YoY inflation rate as of last month.
- the index of aggregate hours worked for non-managerial workers *declilned* -0.3%, but remains up 1.1% YoY, only slightly below its trend for the past 12+ months.
- the index of aggregate payrolls for non-managerial workers was rose 0.1%, and is up 5.2% YoY. These have been slowly decelerating since the end of the pandemic lockdowns, and that trend continued this month, which was just slightly above the post-pandemic low. Nevertheless, with the latest YoY consumer inflation reading of 2.4%, this remains powerful evidence that average working families have continued to see gains in “real” spending money.
- Professional and business employment fell -47,000. Moreover, there were significant revisions to this series, which now show a relentless decline for the last five months. These tend to be well-paying jobs. As of this month, they are only higher YoY by 0.1% - a very low increase that has *only* happened in the past 80+ years immediately before, during, or after recessions.
- The employment population ratio declined -0.2% to 60.0%, vs. 61.1% in February 2020.
- The Labor Force Participation Rate declined -0.1% to 62.6%, vs. 63.4% in February 2020. The prime 25-54 age participation rate declined -0.3% to 83.5%, vs. 84.0% in July, which was the highest rate during the entire history of this series except for the late 1990s tech boom.
- Of particular importance this month is the change in those on temporary layoff, up 214,000, vs. permanent job losers, up 153,000. This suggests that about 60% of the negative news this month was transient, but about 40% of the decline was more structural.
SUMMARY: To reiterate what I said in the opening, if there were no special factors, this report would be outright recessionary. Private jobs declined, manufacturing declined, motor vehicle production and trucking employment declined, goods producing jobs as a whole declined, professional and business jobs declined; and finally, the unemployment rate, before rounding, rose 0.1%. This is recessionary. While -44,000 of that decline appears to have been the strike at Boeing, now resolved, on the other hand, leisure and hospitality jobs, of which Florida has plenty, only declined -4,000 in October. And the downward revisions to professional and business jobs are very concerning. Again, to reiterate my last bullet point above this summary, as a back of the envelope estimate, I would take 60% of this month’s decline as temporary, but 40% real. Since this report showed a -211,000 decline in new jobs from September’s +223,000 pace, my best guess as to what this report would have shown in the absence of Milton and the Boeing strike is an increase of +127,000 jobs.
Comments on October Employment Report --The headline jobs number in the October employment report was below expectations, and August and September payrolls were revised down by 112,000 combined. The participation rate and the employment population ratio declined, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.1%.Earlier: October Employment Report: 12 thousand Jobs, 4.1% Unemployment Rate Typically, retail companies start hiring for the holiday season in October, and really increase hiring in November. Here is a graph that shows the historical net retail jobs added for October, November and December by year.This graph really shows the collapse in retail hiring in 2008. Since then, seasonal hiring had increased back close to more normal levels. Note: I expect the long-term trend will be down with more and more internet holiday shopping. Retailers hired 125 thousand workers Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA) net in October. This was lower than last year and suggests slightly less real retail sales this holiday season as last year.This was seasonally adjusted (SA) to a loss of 6.4 thousand retail jobs in October. Since the overall participation rate is impacted by both cyclical (recession) and demographic (aging population, younger people staying in school) reasons, here is the employment-population ratio for the key working age group: 25 to 54 years old.The 25 to 54 years old participation rate decreased in October to 83.5% from 83.8% in September.The 25 to 54 employment population ratio decreased to 80.6% from 80.9% the previous month.Both are above pre-pandemic levels and near the highest level this millennium.The graph shows the nominal year-over-year change in "Average Hourly Earnings" for all private employees from the Current Employment Statistics (CES). There was a huge increase at the beginning of the pandemic as lower paid employees were let go, and then the pandemic related spike reversed a year later.Wage growth has trended down after peaking at 5.9% YoY in March 2022 and was at 4.0% YoY in October. The number of persons working part time for economic reasons decreased in October to 4.56 million from 4.62 million in September. This is above the pre-pandemic levels.These workers are included in the alternate measure of labor underutilization (U-6) that was unchanged at 7.7% from 7.7% in the previous month. This is down from the record high in April 2020 of 23.0% and up from the lowest level on record (seasonally adjusted) in December 2022 (6.5%). (This series started in 1994). This measure is above the 7.0% level in February 2020 (pre-pandemic). This graph shows the number of workers unemployed for 27 weeks or more.According to the BLS, there are 1.61 million workers who have been unemployed for more than 26 weeks and still want a job, essentialy unchanged from 1.63 million the previous month.This is down from post-pandemic high of 4.174 million, and up from the recent low of 1.050 million. This is above pre-pandemic levels.Through October 2024, the employment report indicated positive job growth for 46 consecutive months, putting the current streak in a tie for 3rd place of the longest job streaks in US history (since 1939). It appears this streak will survive the annual benchmark revision (that will revise down job growth). Summary:The headline jobs number in the October employment report was below expectations, and August and September payrolls were revised down by 112,000 combined. The participation rate and the employment population ratio declined, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.1%.This report was impacted by strikes (especially Boeing) and the hurricanes. This makes interpreting this report difficult.
Home schooling becoming more popular in North Carolina | FOX8 WGHP — At the Skeen family home, Legos, toys, books and children’s artwork fill a room situated just off the family’s kitchen and dining room. But this space isn’t an ordinary playroom. During school hours, it’s used as a classroom for Skeen Academy. The Skeen family is part of a growing population in North Carolina choosing home school for their children. Their twin daughters Anna Kathryn and Phillips are in fourth-grade, and their son Charlie is in kindergarten. “With each kid, I get to see firsthand several times during the day where they’re excelling, where they’re struggling, and then we can kind of go down rabbit trails together versus being confined to, ‘This is our set time for math, and now we’ve moved on,’” said Helen Skeen, a former public school teacher. According to the North Carolina Division of Non-Public Education, there are currently 100,063 registered home schools statewide for the 2024-2025 school year. That’s a 3.7 percent increase from the previous year (2023-2024) when there were 96,529 registered home schools statewide. It shows a steady rebound after two years of decline following the COVID-19 pandemic home school surge in 2020 during the 2020-2021 school year when there were 112,614 registered home schools. More than half of the home schools in North Carolina identify as religious. That was one of the big draws for the Skeen family. “It’s nice to be able to incorporate our faith,” Skeen said. “My husband travels, and so we travel with him, and I just like the flexibility that home school affords us.” Speaking of flexibility, hybrid options, where students spend part of the week in a traditional classroom and the other part of the week at their home school, are becoming increasingly popular across the state.
How social interactions evolve in schools: Study reveals people tend to gravitate towards groups of similar sizes - A recent study published in Nature Communications uncovers how human social interactions evolve in group settings, providing a perspective on the dynamic nature of social networks. By analyzing how university students and preschool children form and dissolve groups in different environments, the research sheds light on the subtle, yet structured patterns that underlie human social behavior. Authored by network scientists, the study reveals that people tend to stick with groups of similar sizes over time. However, as the size of the group increases, individuals are more likely to move into smaller groups. These patterns remain strikingly consistent across various contexts, including structured, teacher-led classroom settings and informal, free-choice periods such as recess or after-school activities. The research looked at two different environments: a university campus and a preschool. By examining interactions in in-class, out-of-class, and weekend settings, the researchers observed how people transitioned between groups. This offered insights into how humans shift their social connections depending on the context. In structured environments, like classrooms, social groups are often influenced by external constraints, such as the teacher's instructions. However, outside of these formal settings, individuals had more freedom to interact, which led to different, often smaller group formations. This suggests that while external factors play a role in how groups are formed, underlying social behaviors, like the preference for smaller groups, remain consistent. Beyond revealing the patterns of how groups change over time, the study also explored the idea of "burstiness"—periods of high social activity followed by long periods of inactivity. This phenomenon was especially evident in smaller groups, where interactions were more intense and often lasted longer. "These findings hold important implications for areas like education, group management, information dissemination, or epidemiology, where understanding how people connect and disconnect in social settings could lead to more effective strategies for fostering collaboration and well-being,"
Parents and teachers protest closure of Acero charter schools in Chicago: “2,000 of our students will be displaced” - On Tuesday, Fuentes Elementary School parents Miriam Ortolaza and Angelica Juarez organized a demonstration in Chicago to oppose the closure of their children’s school. Fuentes is one of seven schools the Acero charter network has identified will be closed this year, affecting 2,000 students and 250 workers in predominantly working-class Hispanic communities. More than 100 of the students affected are recent immigrants. The closures at Acero are part of a wave of threatened closures all over the US, including scores in Milwaukee, Seattle, San Francisco and almost 100 more in the Chicago Public Schools (CPS), according to a list leaked last month in the midst of negotiations between CPS and the Chicago Teachers Union (CTU). The management board of Acero claimed earlier this month that the Chicago Public Schools district supports its decision to close schools that are “no longer profitable,” according to media reports. The parents, teachers and students gathered at Fuentes on Tuesday demanded that the school remain open, chanting, “Whose schools? Our schools!” Supporters of the Chicago Educators Rank-and-File Committee distributed a statement, titled “Stop Acero’s school closures in Chicago! For a unified struggle of teachers and workers against all budget cuts and school closures!”On Wednesday, hundreds of parents, teachers and students came out to a demonstration officially called by the CTU. The CTU bureaucracy, for its part, in a webinar Tuesday night claimed that the charter school network, which is leading the attack on educators and the working class, along with the Democratic Party, could be “pressured” to change course. The CTU bureaucracy is politically aligned with Democratic Mayor Brandon Johnson, a former CTU lobbyist, who has made it clear educators and parents will have to accept deep “sacrifices” to pay for a more than $1.2 billion public school deficit over 2024-25. Like other school districts, Chicago has been severely affected by the Biden-Harris administration’s decision to let federal COVID school funding expire.California Bans 6 Artificial Dyes in Foods Served at Public Schools -- A new law just passed in California makes it the first state to tell public schools they may no longer serve foods that contain six artificial dyes linked to health and behavior problems among children. Gov. Gavin Newsom signed the California School Food Safety Act into law on Saturday. It bans Red 40, Yellow 5, Yellow 6, Blue 1, Blue 2 and Green 3 in meals, drinks and snacks served in school cafeterias across the state, although the law won't take effect until Dec. 31, 2027.“Our health is inextricably tied to the food we eat -- but fresh, healthy foods aren’t always available or affordable for families," Newsom said in a news release after signing the bill into law. "Today, we are refusing to accept the status quo, and making it possible for everyone, including school kids, to access nutritious, delicious food without harmful, and often addictive, additives. By giving every child a healthy start, we can set them on the path to a future with less risk of obesity and chronic illness.”The bill was first proposed in March by Democratic Assembly member Jesse Gabriel, three years after a state report linked consuming synthetic food dyes to hyperactivity and neurobehavioral problems in some children.“Overall, our review of human studies suggests that synthetic food dyes are associated with adverse neurobehavioral effects, such as inattentiveness, hyperactivity and restlessness in sensitive children,” the report authors wrote. “The evidence supports a relationship between food dye exposure and adverse behavioral outcomes in children, both with and without pre-existing behavioral disorders [such as ADHD].”
Lead poisoning costs world’s children 765 million IQ points a year: Study - Low-level lead poisoning remains pervasive in the U.S. and world populations despite decades of efforts to end the use of lead in infrastructure, according to a study by researchers at Columbia University’s Mailman School of Public Health. The results, published Wednesday in the New England Journal of Medicine, found that exposure to lead, even at levels once considered safe, is a factor in 5.5 million deaths from cardiovascular disease a year. In children, for whom lead exposure is a major contributor to problems with cognitive development, researchers found it continues to cost the collective equivalent of 765 million IQ points a year. In addition to developmental and cardiovascular problems, low-level lead poisoning is associated with hypertension and chronic kidney failure in adults. “The global burden of disease from lead exposure is staggering,” Ana Navas-Acien, chair of environmental health sciences at the Mailman School, said in a statement. “In contrast to the decline in the rate of coronary heart disease in industrialized countries, the rate has increased over the past 30 years in industrializing countries. One in three children worldwide — more than 600 million children — have lead poisoning.” The study comes as the Biden administration has stepped up efforts to replace the U.S.’s remaining lead pipes, requiring water systems to replace all water lines containing lead over the next decade, as well as finalizing a new federal standard last week that established a “zero tolerance” baseline for any amount of lead paint dust detected in a building. “Too often our children, the most vulnerable residents of already overburdened communities, are the most profoundly impacted by the toxic legacy of lead-based paint,” Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Administrator Michael Regan said in a statement announcing the final standard last week. “EPA is getting the lead out of communities nationwide.”
Protest against removal of pro-Palestinian teacher shuts down Philadelphia school board meeting -- Several dozen parents and students staged a protest at a Philadelphia School District board of education meeting Thursday in defense of a teacher who had recently been terminated for her outspoken views on the Israeli government’s genocide of the Palestinians. The protest temporarily shut down the board’s proceedings, forcing it to reconvene in a remote location. Keziah Ridgeway, a teacher of African American history, Advanced Placement (AP) and International Baccalaureate (IB) courses at Northeast Philadelphia High School, was removed from her job at the beginning of the school year following complaints the school district received from pro-Israel groups. “For every district official who participated in the baseless censure of Ms. Ridgeway, this is the legacy you leave behind,” stated fellow Philadelphia teacher Hannah Gann at the board of education meeting Thursday. Gann attended the event along with a cohort of parents involved with Philadelphia Parents for Palestine. The group has launched a Change.org petition for the teacher to be reinstated, which declares “Every day that Keziah Ridgeway is not teaching her students, they are falling behind in their AP, IB and other classwork. Students have dropped out of her classes as the substitutes cannot prepare these students for the AP tests, for example, and every day more damage is done.” Ridgeway, a 2020 recipient of the prestigious Lindback Award for teaching, is an outspoken proponent of the Palestinian people in their fight against Zionist oppression. In January, she allowed several students in one of her courses to construct a podcast on Palestinian resistance art. This presentation was viewable to the school community, attracting attacks from right wing groups. The ensuing smear campaign and witch hunt resulted in the school system’s cowardly decision to censor the student’s exhibit while Ridgeway began incurring the wrath of pro-Zionist groups in Philadelphia. “I have struggled with crippling anxiety and feelings of being unsafe for the last few months and have also had to undergo therapy to deal with the harassment,” Ridgeway, who is black and a Muslim, told the Philadelphia Inquirer. The harassment she alleges to have received from affiliates of the Jewish Family Association (JFA) includes being told to go “back to where she came from,” being shoulder-bumped by a former Israel Defense Forces (IDF) soldier and having to endure threats that the group will have her “touched.” In early September, Ridgeway posted to her Instagram account that “Y’all [JFA] been harassing me for almost a year. Writing 10 page letters to the US Congress, Governor Shapiro, Philly City Council and The School District. Reporting me to Canary Mission like I give AF.” She was “taking the gloves off” and inquired if anyone knew of any “Black owned [gun emoji] shops in or near Philly? Asking for a friend.” The JFA’s legal support quickly lodged a complaint. The Deborah Project’s Lori Lowenthal Marcus alleged that Ridgeway was an “aggressively antisemitic school teacher” with “profanity-laced, hateful public comments targeting Jewish families and students in the district.” The Deborah Project and Marcus carry ties to far-right-wing circles. Marcus is a member of the American Zionist Movement and has publicly joined the fascistic attacks on the teaching of Critical Race Theory (CRT) in schools. According to the Deborah Project, CRT is a tool of supposed “far left antisemitism” which “denounces the creation of the State of Israel as an exercise in land theft by white colonialists.” The Philadelphia School District caved in immediately to the Zionist pressure despite the dubious claims and groups involved in the complaints. “Threats of violence towards our school communities are not tolerated and we work closely with the appropriate authorities when handling these situations,” stated district spokesperson Christina Clark last month. The school district has launched an investigation into the social media post. This is despite Ridgeway being cleared on two previous occasions of allegations originating from the same group. The efforts to muzzle anti-genocide advocates comes as the Philadelphia School District is facing a severe teacher shortage, particularly in more impoverished areas. A report published this month by the Philadelphia Talent Coalition found that the crisis was so bad that under-qualified emergency personnel were being used to teach courses in the school district. The study found 1 in 5 teachers in the district were not qualified for the courses they taught. In charter schools, the ratio was 1 in 4.
"How Did They Get My Email?": UWisc Student Angered Harris-Walz Promos Sent En Masse To Students - The Kamala Harris presidential campaign is hosting a huge concert in Madison, Wisc., on Wednesday night, and an untold multitude of University of Wisconsin students recently got an email blast touting the event in their inboxes. Students at both the University of Wisconsin Madison and University of Wisconsin Whitewater, the latter of which is an hour drive from Madison, confirmed to The College Fix they received emails from the Harris-Walz campaign Monday. The emails touted the concert, which will feature Gracie Abrams and Mumford & Sons. “RSVP NOW: Kamala Harris is coming to UW-Madison for a concert + rally!” was the subject line of the Get-Out-The-Vote email. The sender was listed as “Wisconsin for Harris-Walz.” “Vice President Harris is coming to UW-Madison on Wednesday. And, for one day only, we’re getting ready to rock the ballot box with the When We Vote, We Win concert and rally,” the email stated above an image of a smiling Harris. At least one UW-Whitewater student who is voting for Donald Trump said it was “insulting and infuriating” to get the email that amounted to an ad for Democrats. She said she was also shocked the Harris-Walz campaign obtained her school email address. “How did they get my email,” said the student, a 24-year-old senior whose initials are T.E. She asked not to be fully named for fear of retribution for speaking out. “It was really surprising to see an email from candidate Kamala Harris to my school email when I know for a fact there hasn’t been any from the RNC or Donald Trump or anything like that,” she said.
Brown University suspends its chapter of Students for Justice in Palestine --Brown University suspended its chapter of Students for Justice in Palestine after the group led a rally protesting the university's decision not to divest its endowment from certain companies that support Israel. Chapter members were told of the suspension Thursday, the group said, nearly a week after its Oct. 18 protest. The suspension is a “retaliatory, politically-motivated ploy to defame protestors, fracture the student movement, and detract from their complicity in the extermination of the Palestinian people,” the group said in a statement Sunday. Brown University said that because of the “severity of alleged threatening, intimidating and harassing actions,” it has initiated a review of SJP and required the chapter to “cease all organization activities.” The Haffenreffer Museum of Anthropology on the campus of Brown University in Providence, R.I. Brown University in Providence, R.I. Lane Turner / Boston Globe via Getty Images file Members of the group, which belongs to the Brown Divest Coalition, said members were told they are prohibited from holding any activities, events or meetings or posting on social media. “By prohibiting SJP from holding any events, including our weekly vigils, the administration has debilitated the sole organization on this campus dedicated to holding space for collective grief amidst the indiscriminate slaughter of Gazans carried out by the Zionist regime,” the group said in a statement. The university said that while its policies make it clear that holding protests is a “necessary and acceptable means of expression on campus,” it argued that the protest led to the intimidation and harassment of administrators, members of Brown’s governing board and staff workers. The university said it received reports from personnel that protesters were “banging on vehicles, physically blocking passage of a vehicle, screaming profanity at individuals at close and personal range, profanity and a racial epithet directed toward a person of color, and following and screaming at individuals while filming them.” “As a campus community, we should be resolute that these behaviors are not acceptable, are not reflective of the Brown student body or our community as a whole, and are not commensurate with what we expect of ourselves and others,” it said in a statement. Brown Divest Coalition first led a series of protests in April calling for the university’s governing board to divest. While university officials did review a student proposal outlining why the board should divest from 10 companies, it ultimately decided not to do so. The university’s governing body voted against the proposal on Oct. 8, with students organizing a protest in response on Oct. 18. Brown Divest Coalition said the university’s leadership “has shown us time and again that their investments in genocide take precedent over the dignity of the Palestinian people.” Brown is one of several colleges and universities that have suspended pro-Palestinian groups amid ongoing protests, including Temple University, Tufts University, Rutgers University, American University and the University of Vermont. Harvard University has suspended 25 professors and more than 60 law students from using the school’s flagship library after they held a protest on campus this month.
In Florida nursing homes, only 11% say staff flu vaccination is required despite high-risk setting -- Only 11% of infection-prevention leads at 3,700 Florida nursing homes and assisted-living facilities (ALFs) said their facility requires influenza vaccination for healthcare workers despite the high risk to residents, shows a survey published last week in the American Journal of Infection Control. From December 2022 to February 2023, a team led by researchers from the University of Florida College of Public Health and Health Professions in Gainesville collected responses to a needs-assessment survey of professionals responsible for infection prevention and control (IPC) at 3,690 long-term care facilities (LTCFs) in Florida. The state has the United States' fourth most LTCFs and ranks second in the percentage of residents aged 65 years and older. Respondents worked at ALFs (37.5%), skilled-nursing facilities (SNFs; 36.1%), and nursing homes (21.7%) and included infection preventionists (IPs), administrators, and nursing directors. The 90-question survey was a modified version of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's (CDC's) 2016 Infection Prevention and Control Assessment Tool for Long-Term Care Facilities. "Residents of LTCFs have multiple risk factors for acquiring infections, including underlying medical conditions and treatments that may suppress the immune system, indwelling devices, and open wounds," the researchers noted. "Infections and colonization with multidrug-resistant organisms (MDRO) are particularly problematic in LTCF." "Unfortunately, there did not seem to be widespread uptake of flu vaccine among health care workers (HCW) in the state, with only 31% of health care personnel vaccinated in skilled nursing facilities in 2022-2023, which ranked 48th among 50 states and the District of Columbia," the authors wrote. "The low uptake of influenza vaccination among Florida's LTCF workers, despite recommendations, suggests a need for more robust vaccination policies and educational campaigns."Nearly a third (30%) of those surveyed reported shortages of registered nurses, licensed practical nurses, and certified nursing assistants, but only 5% said supplies of personal protective equipment were limited. SNFs and nursing homes were more likely than ALFs to have gloves in or near every room and to have N95 respirators available (98.5% vs 81.6% and 100% vs 91.9%, respectively). SNFs and nursing homes were also more likely to perform N95 fit-testing (86.2% vs 54.3%). Of the 155 respondents from LTCFs, 47.7% had at least 40 hours dedicated to IPC activities each week, 36.8% had 20 to 38 hours, and 15.5% had 1 to 15 hours. Most (82.1%) delivered staff education as in-person in-services, 56.6% used online materials, 25% used live online group training, and 5.4% used other training methods.Among IPs, 81.0% reported 5 or fewer years of experience in IPC, and 83% said they had been in their current position for no more than 3 years. "While this relatively inexperienced workforce may reflect burnout among more experienced IPs, it may also indicate high turnover and short employment periods for newer IPs in LTCFs," the researchers wrote. "More importantly, this highlights the urgent need for enhanced training and support systems, such as continuous professional development opportunities, and peer mentorship."
Analysis finds 20% of children with pneumonia don't receive antibiotics - A multistate study of publicly insured children diagnosed as having pneumonia found that one in five did not receive antibiotics, researchers reported yesterday in JAMA Network Open. But while children who didn't receive antibiotics had slightly higher rates of treatment failure than those who did, severe outcomes were rare regardless of antibiotic treatment, the researchers found.The study authors say their findings suggest future research should aim to identify children with pneumonia who can be safely managed without antibiotics. Most children with pneumonia are treated with antibiotics, even though pneumonia is in many cases caused by viral pathogens. As the study authors explain, that's likely because of concerns about bacterial coinfections and a lack of published evidence that could guide clinicians on when to withhold antibiotics. But there have been no large-scale studies in the United States comparing outcomes in children with pneumonia who were treated with and without antibiotics. Among the 103,854 children included in the study, the median age was 5 years, and 52.6% were boys. Overall, 83,149 children (80.3%) received antibiotics and 20,435 (19.7%) did not. Children visiting urgent care centers (88.7%) and outpatient clinics (82.7%) received antibiotics more frequently than those treated at emergency departments (74.4%). Non-Hispanic Black children received antibiotics at a lower frequency (79.0%) than non-Hispanic White children (81.7%) and Hispanic children (82.6%).To compare outcomes between those who didn't receive antibiotics and those who did, the researchers conducted a propensity score-matched analysis of 40,454 children (20,277 in each treatment group). Treatment failure occurred in 2,167 children (10.7%) who did not receive antibiotics and 1,766 (8.7%) who did (risk difference, 1.98 percentage points; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.41 to 2.56). Severe outcomes occurred in 230 children (1.1%) who did not receive antibiotics and in 133 (0.7%) who did (risk difference 0.46 percentage points; 95% CI, 0.28 to 0.64). A sensitivity analysis found that the risk of treatment failure in children who did not receive antibiotics versus those who did was reduced after excluding children with asthma or bronchiolitis (9.9% vs 9.0%) and after extending the exposure window for receiving antibiotics from 0 to 1 days to 1 to 2 days (7.3% vs 7.1%). "Together, these results suggest that most children do not experience treatment failure or severe outcomes if they do not receive antibiotics," the authors wrote.
Reports of drug supply chain issues 40% less likely to cause shortages in Canada than in US - Drug supply chain disruptions led to significant shortages in the United States more often than in Canada from 2017 to 2021, a study today in JAMA suggests.A University of Toronto–led research team used the IQVIA Multinational Integrated Data Analysis database to identify drug supply chain problems and shortages less than 6 months apart in the United States and Canada from 2017 to 2021. The IQVIA database contains information on 89% of US and 100% of Canadian drug purchases.A shortage was defined as a decrease of at least 33% in monthly purchased standardized drug units within 1 year, relative to those in the 6 months before the report of supply chain issues to a US or Canadian reporting system. A total of 104 drug supply chain issues occurred in both countries, and within 1 year, 49.0% (95% confidence interval [CI], 39.3% to 59.7%) were tied to significant drug shortages in the United States, compared with 34.0% (95% CI, 25.0% to 45.0%) in Canada (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR], 0.53; 95% CI, 0.36 to 0.79). The lower risk of drug shortages in Canada compared with the United States was consistent before (aHR, 0.47; 95% CI, 0.30 to 0.75) and after the COVID-19 pandemic (aHR, 0.31; 95% CI, 0.15 to 0.66). Combining reports of supply chain disruptions in both countries revealed that the shortage risk was double for sole-source drugs (adjusted HR, 2.58; 95% CI, 1.57 to 4.24) and nearly half for Canadian tier 3 drugs (adjusted HR, 0.56; 95% CI, 0.32 to 0.98).
When will the next COVID, flu surge start? Experts weigh in - October is typically the calm before the storm when it comes to respiratory viruses. But health experts say it’s not time to get comfortable. A surge in flu and COVID cases is likely on the way, but the timing of the winter wave may be different this year.The summer of 2024 saw a dramatic increase in COVID-19 cases for a period that stretched well into September.“Perhaps a silver lining in that cloud is that the large number of summer cases may mean that our winter wave is going to be a little smaller because individuals who were infected in the summer should have immunity that will take them into December and January,” Dr. Andrew Pekosz, professor at Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, said in a media briefingthis month. Because immunity from a prior case tends to last about three months on average, and so many people were infected in late summer, we may start to see the next significant uptick in COVID cases in December, Emily Smith, infectious diseases and epidemiology expert at GW Milken Institute of Public Health, predicted in an interview with USA Today. How big the wave ends up being depends in part on vaccine uptake. Last year, few people got the updated booster shot. If that’s the case again this year, we’re more likely to see widespread and serious consequences, Pekosz said.Uptake rates of the flu vaccine are another concern, he said. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention recommends vaccinating against influenza before the end of October so it has time to take effect before peak flu season. Most of the time, flu activity peaks between December and February. Adults over 75 and some between ages 60 and 74 can also get vaccinated against RSV, which is respiratory syncytial virus. If vaccine uptake for these looks similar to last year, we could be in for a dangerous winter, CDC Director Mandy Cohen said in a briefing at the end of September.“If last season is any prediction of this season, that means 800,000 hospitalizations of flu, COVID and RSV,” she said. “We know that these vaccines can cut the risk of hospitalization in half.”
Is this year’s COVID booster a good match for new variants?– Depending on when you last got vaccinated, that COVID-19 shot may no longer be a good match for the variants expected to dominate this fall and winter.As a virus circulates, it continues to mutate. Some mutations can make it spread faster, others make symptoms feel stronger, and some changes make it better at evading your pre-existing immunity.This year’s new batch of shots, reformulated and released over the past two months, are a “fairly good match” to the predominant variants infecting people right now, said Dr. Andrew Pekosz, professor at Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, in a recent media briefing “They’re never a perfect match because the vaccine strain choice is made back in June and while the vaccine doesn’t change, the virus keeps replicating and the virus keeps mutating,” he said.The updated Moderna and Pfizer shots target the KP.2 variant, known as one of the FLiRT subtypes of omicron. The Novavax booster targets the JN.1 strain.Both of those strains were dominant earlier this year, when the pharmaceutical companies were manufacturing these new doses, but are no longer as prominent. Now, the KP.3 and KP.3.1.1 types are more common.While they may not be a perfect match, the latest variants have enough in common with the KP.2 and JN.1 that the boosters should still offer effective cross-protection.Plus, the 2024 editions of the vaccine are a much better fit than what we had available this time last year, which were targeting the original omicron strain.“These new strains are as different from [the original] omicron as omicron was from the ancestral strain. They’re pretty far apart evolutionarily,” explained Dr. Dean Blumberg, chief of pediatric infectious diseases at UC Davis Health. “The updated vaccine is a much better match for the currently circulating variant. That match is about 80 percent. We expect it to be much more effective.”On top of that, if it’s been a while since your last COVID shot, you may not be as well protected. Immunity from the vaccine is optimal for about three months, Pekosz said, before it starts to go down. “But if you get a COVID-19 vaccine now, you should be protected well through the fall,” he added.
Hospital patient safety suffered under COVID pandemic pressures, study shows -- A study published in Nursing Research yesterday reveals that hospital patient-safety indicators worsened during the COVID-19 pandemic, with higher rates of falls, bloodstream infections from catheters, urinary tract infections from catheters, pressure injuries from devices or immobility, and pneumonia linked to ventilator use. Researchers from the University of Pennsylvania's Center for Health Outcomes and Policy Research led the study, which also pointed out that while rates of patient injuries and infections are on a downward trend, they had not returned to prepandemic levels by 2022. The team used data from the National Database of Nursing Quality Indicators repository from 2019 to 2022 on rates of falls, central line-associated bloodstream infections (CLABSI), catheter-associated urinary tract infections (CAUTI), hospital-acquired pressure injuries (HAPI), and ventilator-associated events (VAE). The nationally representative data were reported by 24,244 units in 2,346 hospitals. Nurses were overwhelmed with disruptions to routine nursing care, which is essential to maintaining safety and preventing adverse patient events. "The pandemic’s demands on hospital nurses included quickly adopting a crisis standard of care, scarcity of personal protective equipment, supporting patients in the hospital without visitors, and higher patient acuity," the researchers wrote. "Nurses were overwhelmed with disruptions to routine nursing care, which is essential to maintaining safety and preventing adverse patient events."
Risk of long COVID in kids grew along with rising childhood obesity during pandemic -- Two new studies highlight body mass index (BMI) in children during the COVID-19 pandemic, with one finding a 25% and 42% higher risk of long COVID among obese and severely obese children, respectively, and the other showing that the proportion of overweight or obese youth rose 5% amid the 18-month public-school closure in San Francisco. For the first study, published this week in JAMA Network Open, a University of Pennsylvania–led research team used electronic health records (EHRs) to assess rates of post-acute sequelae of SARS-CoV-2 (PASC, or long COVID) among 172,136 COVID-19 survivors aged 4 to 17 years at 26 US children's hospitals from March 2020 to May 2023. Half of the participants had obesity or severe obesity. "PASC continues to pose a substantial threat to children, necessitating an urgent and deeper understanding of pediatric PASC causes," the researchers wrote. "This need to unravel the complexities of pediatric PASC continues to be crucial even after the COVID-19 pandemic."BMI was measured 18 months before COVID-19 infection, and participants were followed up for at least 6 months. Average participant age was 12.6 years, and 52.4% were girls.During follow-up, 0.8% of participants received a PASC diagnosis, of whom 53.6% were obese or severely obese, and 26.4% had any of 24 PASC symptoms and conditions at least once, 52.8% of whom had obesity or severe obesity. The median time from infection to PASC diagnosis or symptoms was 50 and 63 days, respectively. The median number of new PASC symptoms and conditions was 0, indicating that at least half of the participants didn't have symptoms.Relative to participants with a healthy BMI, those with obesity were at a 25.4% higher risk for long COVID, and those with severe obesity were at a 42.1% higher risk. The second study, by University of California at San Francisco researchers, was published in BMC Public Health. The EHR-based study involved 15,401 children aged 4 to 17 years receiving care at two medical centers in San Francisco during three periods: two of them prepandemic (March 2018 to February 2019 and March 2019 to February 2020), plus the COVID-related school-closure period (March 2020 to August 2021). The median age at baseline was 10 years, 34% were Latino, 26% were White, 20% were Asian, 9% were Black, and 47% were publicly insured. The average BMI-z score (relative age- and sex-adjusted BMI) climbed 0.06 per year during period 2 and 0.12 per year in period 3. The proportion of overweight or obese children rose 1.4 percentage points per year in period 2 and 4.9 percentage points per year in period 3.An effect-modification analysis showed that the youngest participants, those with public rather than private health insurance, and Black, Latino, and Asian children saw greater increases in BMI-z. The youngest age-group and publicly insured children also had greater increases in the proportion with overweight or obesity. At the end of period 2, the difference in the prevalence of overweight or obesity between children with private and public insurance was 12.8 percentage points (21.5 vs 34.3 percentage points), but by the end of period 3, the gap had widened to 20 percentage points (26.6 vs 46.6 percentage points). This contributed to increasing disparities for Black and Latino children, the researchers noted. Asian children, who initially had the lowest BMI-z score, caught up to their White peers during the pandemic. "If these increases in BMI status persist over time, they are likely to increase these children's risk for numerous adverse cardiometabolic outcomes," the researchers wrote. "In addition, given the consequences of excess weight gain and new or worsening obesity on future cardiometabolic risk, policy makers must consider the risk of increasing weight gain when considering future pandemic policies, including school and recreational program closure and efforts to alleviate economic distress and improve access to healthy foods," they concluded.
COVID-19 increased psychological distress in college students, data reveal -- A study yesterday in Frontiers shows that university students experienced increased psychological distress during COVID-19 but used fewer mental health support services. This is the first known study to use a national dataset to compare use of mental health services pre- and post-pandemic. "More U.S. college students suffered from mental health concerns during the pandemic, but fewer received necessary mental health treatment," said first study author Elaine Russell, from George Mason University's College of Public Health, in a press release from that school. The findings were based on data from fall 2019, early spring 2020, and spring 2021 surveys. Participants were limited to full-time undergraduate students aged 18 to 24 attending four-year universities in the United States. A total of 88,986 completed the National College Health Assessment before the COVID-19 pandemic, and 96,489 completed it during the pandemic. The participants were given a survey to assess mental health, stress, and loneliness, and asked how and if they accessed on-campus mental health services. Across all measures, mental health was worse in 2021 compared to 2019 and 2020. Of note, rates of students suffering from severe psychological distress increased from 19.0% pre-pandemic to 26.8% in spring 2021."During the peak of COVID-19, 82.4% of students reported experiencing moderate to high stress over the past 30 days, compared to 75.8% pre-COVID-19, which was also found to be statistically significant," the authors wrote.Due, in part, to campus shutdowns, students' rates of on-campus use of mental health services decreased from 58.6% to 44.4%, and rates of using services in the local community near campus decreased from 24.8% to 21.9%.Non-White and male students were less likely to use mental health services after the pandemic began compared to female students.
Over 75 infected and 1 killed so far by McDonald’s E. coli outbreak -In recent months, several outbreaks of foodborne illnesses have been reported across the US, resulting in the hospitalizations of nearly 100 people and the deaths of 11, as well as massive food recalls by the companies involved, raising profound concerns about the safety of the $1 trillion US food industry.Most recently, US fast-food chain McDonald’s has removed the Quarter Pounder from its menu at one-fifth of all its 14,000 US locations across 13 states in the Midwest and some Western states, due to an outbreak of the highly virulent Escherichia coli O157:h7 (E. coli). The outbreak of illnesses that occurred from September 27, 2024, to October 11, 2024, has infected at least 75 people, hospitalizing 22 and killing one. The source has been identified as raw onions procured from Taylor Farms.While the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and FDA investigation is ongoing, the supplier of the yellow onions has issued a recall and notified other food service customers to whom it had sold the contaminated produce. These developments have led chains like Taco Bell, Pizza Hut, KFC and Burger King to remove fresh onions from their food products at similar locations.Attorney Mike Taylor, with decades of work in the FDA and USDA, who serves on the board of the non-profit public health organization Stop Foodborne Illness, (founded after the 1992-1993 Jack in the Box E. coli outbreak that infected 732 people and killed four children) said, “Produce is a much harder problem,” than meats which, if cooked through, can prevent such health issues.Fresh produce, because it is frequently consumed raw, poses a considerable challenge for large-scale industrial produce. Despite washing, sanitation and testing, low levels of contamination can go undetected and lead to the outbreak of foodborne illnesses. E. coli from feces, a normal pathogen in the intestines of animals such as cattle, that has also been detected in wild animals like geese, boars, deer and others, can contaminate water sources that lead to such outbreaks.Bill Marler, a Seattle-based lawyer representing victims of such outbreaks for more than 30 years, told the Washington Post that more than just the testing of water used to grow produce is required. He noted that the testing of irrigation water and the regulations that keep cattle feedlots away from farmland that grow produce is vital. A 2018 study by the FDA on an E. coli outbreak linked to romaine lettuce from Yuma, Arizona, found samples of the deadly bacteria in canal water. As the Post report stated, “[dust] from nearby concentrated cattle-feeding operations may play a role in contaminating irrigation waters.”Although the Food Safety and Inspection Service (FSIS), the USDA agency responsible for meat, egg, catfish and poultry supply, have attempted to assure the public that food safety remains paramount and that food recalls have dropped from 131 in 2019 to 89 last year, Marler called these figures and the manner they are being presented as problematic, adding, “The more recalls there are, frankly, the safer our food supply is.”Indeed, the July recall of over 70 products by the giant deli meat company, Boar’s Head, after a nationwide Listeria outbreak, underscores the disastrous state of food safety in the US. That outbreak resulted in 10 deaths and 59 hospitalizations, with the CDC noting at the time, “This is the largest listeriosis outbreak since the 2011 outbreak linked to cantaloupe.”Investigation into the outbreak led to the identification of the source of contamination at the company’s southern Virginia plant and the production of liverwurst. In 2022, two years prior to the July outbreak, after an extensive inspection of the Jarratt, Virginia, Boar’s Head facility, US inspectors warned that the conditions at the plant posed an “imminent threat” to public health. They said that cured meats were exposed to wet ceilings, buildup of mold and mildew on surfaces, especially around handwashing sinks and steel vats, and unrepaired holes in the walls.In another line of the inspection, they wrote, “A black mold like substance was seen throughout the room at the wall/concrete junction. As well as some caulking around brick/metal as large as a quarter.” In yet another line, inspectors found “ample amounts of blood in puddles on the floor and rancid smells” throughout a cooler used at the plant. According to information obtained by CBS News through a Freedom of Information Act, they noted there had been 69 recorded safety violations by inspectors since then that had not been remedied.Boar’s Head has been forced to close the facility, and 500 working class jobs have been terminated at the small rural town whose economic well-being depended on the plant’s operations. It remains to be seen if the company will face any penalties from the USDA, which, at the time, only provided a brief statement, writing, “FSIS has suspended inspection at the Boar’s Head establishment in Jarratt, Virginia, which means that it remains closed until the establishment is able to demonstrate it can produce safe product.”Sarah Sorscher, a food safety regulatory expert at the Center for Science in Public Interest, said bluntly on the Listeria outbreak, Boar’s Head criminal negligence and the culpability of the USDA, FDA and CDC: “They shouldn’t have allowed this company to keep producing ready-to-eat products, lunch meat that’s going to go on people’s tables, when they’re seeing this level of violation. Consumers had to die before this plant got shut down, really is the bottom line.”
CDC says slivered onions are 'likely source' of McDonald's E.coli infections -Slivered onions served on McDonald’s Quarter Pounders are the “likely source” of an outbreak of E. coli infections, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) said Wednesday. The number of cases has now risen to 90 across 13 states, with five additional hospitalizations, the agency said. All new illnesses occurred before McDonald’s and the supplier of the onions took action to remove them from food service locations, the agency said. The most recent illness onset date is Oct. 16. McDonald’s confirmed that Taylor Farms, a California-based produce company, was the supplier of the onions used in the restaurants and that they had come from a facility in Colorado Springs, Colo. Due to the product actions taken by both companies, the CDC said it believes the risk to the public “is very low.” Federal food safety investigators ruled out beef patties as the likely source of contamination on Monday. One person has died and a total of 27 have been hospitalized since the start of the outbreak, including two people who developed a serious condition that can cause kidney failure. McDonald’s pulled Quarter Pounders off the menu at around 3,000 stores. The company said it will resume selling the burgers at affected restaurants in the coming week.
California Bans 6 Artificial Dyes in Foods Served at Public Schools -- A new law just passed in California makes it the first state to tell public schools they may no longer serve foods that contain six artificial dyes linked to health and behavior problems among children. Gov. Gavin Newsom signed the California School Food Safety Act into law on Saturday. It bans Red 40, Yellow 5, Yellow 6, Blue 1, Blue 2 and Green 3 in meals, drinks and snacks served in school cafeterias across the state, although the law won't take effect until Dec. 31, 2027.“Our health is inextricably tied to the food we eat -- but fresh, healthy foods aren’t always available or affordable for families," Newsom said in a news release after signing the bill into law. "Today, we are refusing to accept the status quo, and making it possible for everyone, including school kids, to access nutritious, delicious food without harmful, and often addictive, additives. By giving every child a healthy start, we can set them on the path to a future with less risk of obesity and chronic illness.”The bill was first proposed in March by Democratic Assembly member Jesse Gabriel, three years after a state report linked consuming synthetic food dyes to hyperactivity and neurobehavioral problems in some children.“Overall, our review of human studies suggests that synthetic food dyes are associated with adverse neurobehavioral effects, such as inattentiveness, hyperactivity and restlessness in sensitive children,” the report authors wrote. “The evidence supports a relationship between food dye exposure and adverse behavioral outcomes in children, both with and without pre-existing behavioral disorders [such as ADHD].”
Lead poisoning costs world’s children 765 million IQ points a year: Study - Low-level lead poisoning remains pervasive in the U.S. and world populations despite decades of efforts to end the use of lead in infrastructure, according to a study by researchers at Columbia University’s Mailman School of Public Health. The results, published Wednesday in the New England Journal of Medicine, found that exposure to lead, even at levels once considered safe, is a factor in 5.5 million deaths from cardiovascular disease a year. In children, for whom lead exposure is a major contributor to problems with cognitive development, researchers found it continues to cost the collective equivalent of 765 million IQ points a year. In addition to developmental and cardiovascular problems, low-level lead poisoning is associated with hypertension and chronic kidney failure in adults. “The global burden of disease from lead exposure is staggering,” Ana Navas-Acien, chair of environmental health sciences at the Mailman School, said in a statement. “In contrast to the decline in the rate of coronary heart disease in industrialized countries, the rate has increased over the past 30 years in industrializing countries. One in three children worldwide — more than 600 million children — have lead poisoning.” The study comes as the Biden administration has stepped up efforts to replace the U.S.’s remaining lead pipes, requiring water systems to replace all water lines containing lead over the next decade, as well as finalizing a new federal standard last week that established a “zero tolerance” baseline for any amount of lead paint dust detected in a building. “Too often our children, the most vulnerable residents of already overburdened communities, are the most profoundly impacted by the toxic legacy of lead-based paint,” Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Administrator Michael Regan said in a statement announcing the final standard last week. “EPA is getting the lead out of communities nationwide.”
Dust from California’s lithium-rich Salton Sea worsening child respiratory issues: Study --Wind-strewn dust from California’s lithium-rich, shrinking Salton Sea may be triggering respiratory issues in children who live nearby, a new study has found. Among the many symptoms — worse for those young people who reside closest to the saline lake — are asthma, coughing, wheezing and sleep disruptions, according to the study, published in Environmental Research. About 24 percent of children located in this region have asthma, in comparison to the national rate of 8.4 percent for boys and 5.5 percent for girls, the authors found. Of particular concern to the researchers was the fact that these abnormally high rates affected predominantly low-income communities of color around 150 miles southeast of Los Angeles. “These rural environmental justice communities are facing health consequences due to local dust events,” first author Jill Johnston, an associate professor of environmental health at the University of Southern California, said in a statement. The Salton Sea was created in 1905 by an accidental breach of the adjacent canal system, and until recently, the artificial lake was sustained predominantly by irrigation runoff from nearby farms, the authors noted. But in the past two decades, decreasing water flow has exposed 16,000 new acres of dried-up, dusty land, which contains pollutants such as sulfate, chloride, pesticides, arsenic, lead and chromium. “The agricultural industry in Imperial Valley has used excessive amounts of water, but one of the impacts of water conservation is the shrinking of the sea,” Johnston added. To understand the impacts of this decline, the researchers recruited 722 school-age children from largely Latino and Hispanic communities between 2017 and 2019. Their parents then completed a 64-question survey about their children’s health histories over the previous 12 months. Some items included episodes of asthma, daily coughs for three consecutive months, congestion or excess phlegm. At the same time, the authors harnessed data from regulatory air monitors to identify dust exposure events in which hourly concentrations exceeded 150 micrograms per cubic meter — the federal threshold for particle pollution. Ultimately, they found that children were exposed to between 98 and 395 dust event hours annually between 2017 and 2019, with disparate effects among participants. Every additional 100 dust storm hours per year among children living near the sea was linked to a 9.5 percentage point surge in wheeze, a 4.6 percentage point increase in bronchitis symptoms and a 6.7 percentage point rise in sleep disturbance due to wheeze, according to the study. As the Salton Sea continues to dwindle and generate more dust, the authors emphasized a need to conduct further analyses of the public health effects and address environmental justice concerns. They also expressed concern that as lithium mining development occurs in the area, an increase in associated truck traffic would kick up more dust and exacerbate respiratory issues.
Study shows varied impact of flu in US, with up to 29,000 hospital cases in a season -A new report shows the continued impact of influenza on the US healthcare systems for the past 13 flu seasons, with the impact varying from year to year but peaking in 2017-18, with more than 29,000 hospital cases. The study, published today in Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report, shows significant illness and hospitalization rates for influenza each season and a trend to less prescribing of antiviral drugs. Data on laboratory-confirmed influenza-associated hospitalizations among Americans of all ages were analyzed from information gleaned from the Influenza Hospitalization Surveillance Network (FluSurv-NET) database from the 2010-11 through 2022-23 flu seasons. FluSurv-NET has been collecting data on influenza trends since 2003, but this study is the first comprehensive summary of findings. The number of laboratory-confirmed influenza-associated hospitalization cases ranged from a low of 2,415 cases during 2011-12 to a high of 29,695 during 2017-18. Hospitalizations for flu dropped significantly during the 2020-21 season, and did not return to pre–COVID-pandemic levels until 2022-23. During each flu season, adults 65 years and older had the highest flu-related hospitalization rate across all age-groups, followed in most seasons by children ages 0 to 4 years. Also, in all seasons, 95.4% of flu patients ages 65 and older had at least one other underlying medical condition. "Persons with underlying medical conditions represented a large proportion of patients hospitalized with influenza," the authors wrote. The most common underlying medical conditions among adults were high blood pressure, obesity, chronic metabolic disease, chronic lung disease, and heart disease. Among children, asthma was the most common underlying condition in those hospitalized with flu; 14.9% of case-patients ages 0 to 4 years had asthma, rising to 39.0% of patients ages 5 to 17 years. Substantial ICU admissions Among patients of all ages hospitalized with flu, the proportion admitted to the intensive care unit ranged from 14.1% during 2021-22 to 22.3% during 2013-14. "The proportion of hospitalized patients who died in the hospital ranged from 2.2% during 2021–22 to 3.5% during 2013–14, although adults, particularly those aged ≥65 years, had the highest proportions of in-hospital death," the authors wrote. Among those hospitalized, young adults aged 18 to 49 years consistently had the lowest percentage of patients receiving the current season's flu vaccine—15.4% during 2022-23 to 31.1% during 2014-15. \Walking pneumonia is spiking, especially in kids. Here's what to know -- If you or your kid has a cough that’s been lingering, keep reading. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention says cases of mycoplasma pneumonia are surging across the U.S., especially among young kids. Preeti Sharma is a pediatric pulmonologist who has seen the rise up close. At the end of May, her 12-year-old daughter came home from school with what looked like a typical summer cold. “She had a runny nose, some sneezing, a little bit of sore throat, and a little bit of kind of feeling fatigued, lower appetite,” Sharma says.And then the cough started. “We just kind of watched it progress until she had this very lingering, deep, disruptive cough,” she says.That cough is what tipped Sharma off that her daughter had mycoplasma pneumonia. It’s caused by an infection with the bacteria Mycoplasma pneumoniae. The CDC says cases began rising across the U.S. in the spring and summer, and that surge has continued into fall. Sharma says in Dallas, they saw a big spike after kids went back to school.“Kids are spreading it to one another in schools and they are likely bringing it home to their parents and families as well,” Sharma says.Mycoplasma pneumonia usually manifests with upper respiratory symptoms, though some kids can also develop red eyes or rashes. Headaches are also common.Caleb Ward is a pediatric emergency medicine physician with Children's National Hospital in Washington, D.C., where he says cases of mycoplasma pneumonia are up about tenfold this year. He says the good news is that many cases tend to be mild — that’s why it’s often called walking pneumonia.“Folks historically may have been going to school, going to work, assuming they just had a kind of mild, cold virus and in fact, had mycoplasma pneumonia,” Ward says.New York City has also seen a surge in cases. Dr. Adam Ratner, the director of the division of pediatric infectious diseases at New York University and Hassenfeld Children’s Hospital, says people of all ages can be affected, though typically, the infection is seen in kids and teens ages 5 to 17.However, “that has changed in the last year with this current spike,” Ratner says. While the infection is still more common in older kids, he says they’re seeing more cases in the 2-to-4-year-old range. “That’s being seen nationwide and it’s consistent with what we are seeing here,” says Ratner, who is also a member of the American Academy of Pediatrics' Committee on Infectious Diseases.Sharma, Ward and Ratner agree that most kids can be treated at home – just keep them hydrated, give them age-appropriate medicines for their fever as needed, and make sure they get plenty of rest. If a child is over age 1, honey can help ease a cough.As for when to call the doctor, Ward says, “if parents or caregivers notice that their child is having difficulty breathing, is not drinking enough fluids to stay hydrated, seems much sleepier than usual, or if they remain sick – particularly with fever – for more than five days, they should be assessed by a health care provider.”Mycoplasma pneumonia is easily treated with antibiotics, says Dr. Preeti Sharma, as long as you get the right one. Amoxicillin — the go-to antibiotic for kids with other types of pneumonia — doesn’t work against mycoplasma pneumonia, so a macrolide antibiotic like Azithromycin is needed.Sharma says kids can go back to school once they’ve been fever-free, without the use of fever reducers, for at least 24 hours — as long as they feel physically up to it.
WHO report shows global tuberculosis cases are rising - Tuberculosis (TB) is on the rise and has once again overtaken COVID-19 as the world's leading infectious disease killer, according to the latest report from the World Health Organization (WHO). The Global Tuberculosis Report 2024, released today, shows 8.2 million people were newly diagnosed with TB in 2023, a figure that represents the highest number of TB cases recorded by the WHO since it began global TB monitoring in 1995. It also marks a significant increase from the 7.5 million new TB cases reported in 2022.In addition, the total number of people who contracted TB last year—a number that includes those not officially diagnosed—rose to an estimated 10.8 million in 2023, up from 10.7 million in 2022 and 10.1 million in 2020. But the gap between the estimated number of new cases and notified cases fell to 2.7 million, well down from the 4 million seen in in the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic, when access to TB diagnosis and treatment was limited.Although the estimated number of 1.25 million TB deaths in 2023 is down from the 1.32 million recorded in 2022 and continues a declining trend from the height of the COVID-19 pandemic, that number still far surpasses the 320,000 COVID deaths officially reported to the WHO last year.WHO officials say the decline in TB deaths and a narrowing of the gap between incident and notified TB cases are positive trends that suggest that TB preventive, diagnostic, and treatment services have largely recovered from COVID-related disruptions. But persistent challenges remain, and countries are well off track of targets for reducing the global TB burden."The fact that TB still kills and sickens so many people is an outrage, when we have the tools to prevent it, detect it and treat it," WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, PhD, said in a press release. "WHO urges all countries to make good on the concrete commitments they have made to expand the use of those tools, and to end TB." The WHO says most of the global increase in incident TB cases from 2022 to 2023 likely reflects population growth. Still, the net reduction in TB incidence from 2015 to 2013 was only 8.3%, which is far from the WHO's END TB Strategy milestone of a 50% reduction by 2025. As in previous reports, the data show that 30 mostly low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) bear 87% of the global TB burden, with five countries—India, Indonesia, China, the Philippines, and Pakistan—combining for 56% of the burden. Of the 8.2 million people diagnosed with TB in 2023, 55% were men, 33% were women, and 12% were children and young adolescents.According to the report, a significant number of new TB cases are driven by five major risk factors: undernutrition, HIV infection, alcohol use disorders, smoking, and diabetes."Tackling these issues, along with critical determinants like poverty and GDP [gross domestic product] per capita, requires coordinated multisectoral action," the agency said.Among the positive notes from the report is that the treatment success rate for drug-susceptible TB remains high, at 88%, and that treatment success for multidrug-resistant or rifampicin-resistant (MDR/RR)-TB has risen to 68%. That's largely the result of the shorter, less toxic treatment regimens for MDR/RR-TB now recommended by the WHO.But of the 400,000 people estimated to have developed MDR/RR-TB in 2023, only 44% received diagnosis and treatment. Of those with drug-susceptible TB, 63% were diagnosed based on bacteriologic confirmation, and roughly 75% received treatment. The WHO says that one of the barriers to closing diagnostic and treatment gaps is the financial cost faced by people with TB, which were analyzed for the first time in the new report. The analysis found that 50% of TB patients face total costs (including direct medical expenditures, non-medical expenditures, and loss of income) that account for more than 20% of their income, an amount the WHO defines as "catastrophic."
Tuberculosis infections highest on record: WHO - Global tuberculosis cases reached an all-time high in 2023, with nearly 11 million people estimated to have become sick with the disease last year.According to the World Health Organization’s (WHO) Global Tuberculosis Report 2024, roughly 10.8 million people “fell ill” with the bacterial infection in 2023.“The continued rise reflects the ongoing after-effects of disruptions to TB services during the worst years of the COVID-19 pandemic (2020 and 2021). These persist because of the lag time between more people being infected with TB during disruptions to services and the development (among a small proportion of those infected) of TB disease,” the report stated.Most global tuberculosis cases in 2023 occurred in the WHO regions of Southeast Asia, Africa and the Western Pacific.Between 2020 and 2023, the global incidence rate of tuberculosis rose by an estimated 4.6 percent. The rise followed a 2 percent decline that occurred between 2010 and 2020.The report noted, however, that the increase in global tuberculosis cases appears to have slowed “considerably” and is leveling off as of 2023. Cases were observed to increase in two WHO regions, the Americas and the Western Pacific.At 1.25 million, the estimated number of deaths due to tuberculosis fell in 2023 for the second consecutive year. “In 2023, TB probably returned to being the world’s leading cause of death from a single infectious agent, following 3 years in which it was replaced by COVID-19,” according to the report.
Broader screening could help prevent spread of Candida auris, study finds -- An expanded screening protocol helped a New York City hospital identify more patients who were at risk for Candida auris infection, researchers reported yesterday in the American Journal of Infection Control.The protocol was implemented at Mount Sinai Brooklyn following the diagnosis of a patient with an acute bloodstream caused by C auris, a multidrug-resistant fungus, and an outbreak investigation that identified 118 people who were directly exposed to the patient and eight additional patients with C auriscolonization. Under the hospital's screening protocol at the time, which only applied to patients who had been transferred from skilled nursing facilities (SNFs) that cared for residents with C auris, the patient had not been screened for C auris upon admission because he was not considered high-risk.After the investigation, the hospital expanded its screening protocol to include patients from any SNF. In addition, patients who had tracheostomies or were ventilator-dependent were labeled high-risk and isolated to prevent possible transmission. When researchers compared the 9 months prior to the screening change with the year after, they found that the number of patients screened rose from 34 under the old protocol to 557 under the new protocol, and the C auris positivity rate increased from 1.8% to 2.4%.The study authors say the expansion of the protocol captured eight additional patients with C auriscolonization who would not have been identified under the old protocol and could have spread the pathogen to the hospital environment and other patients."Notably, we saw no spread of this infection from the eight patients identified by the expanded screening protocols who would have been missed by our prior protocol," study co-author and Mount Sinai Brooklyn president Scott Lorin, MD, said in a press release. "When you consider how many other people they came into contact with during their hospital stays, that's a lot of patients kept safer by the implementation of broader screening."
- San Diego County health officials said last week that they are investigating a second locally acquired dengue infection, this time in a Vista resident who was hospitalized. The county’s vector-control department is treating the area around 60 homes in Vista, which is about 42 miles north of San Diego. The county reported its first case on August 6, which involved a resident of Escondido. Over the past several weeks, Los Angeles County has reported nine locally acquired dengue cases, including a cluster of six in Baldwin Park.
- Mauritius on October 26 announced its first mpox case, which involves a 49-year-old man who had traveled from Nigeria, according to a government announcement translated and posted by FluTrackers, an infectious disease news message board. The patient is being treated in isolation at a hospital in Port Louis. The report didn’t note the clade of the virus. The country’s case brings the number of African nations reporting mpox cases this year to 19.
- The Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations (CEPI) today announced a $1 million grant to support work by Abera Bioscience to see if its bacteria-based platform can boost mucosal immunity of an intranasal vaccine being developed as a next-generation vaccine to respond to epidemic and pandemic threats. The platform involves bacterial outer-membrane vesicles, noninfectious particles that some bacteria release that are known to boost immunity.
Iowa reports fatal Lassa fever case in a traveler The Iowa Department of Health and Human Services (IDHHS) today announced the death of a middle-aged eastern Iowa resident from Lassa fever, a rare viral hemorrhagic fever that can be transmitted among humans through infected body fluids. In a statement, officials said the individual had recently traveled to West Africa, where they are thought to have contracted the virus. Initial testing was conducted at the Nebraska Public Health Laboratory, and confirmation testing is under way at the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC).The patient was receiving treatment at the University of Iowa Health Care, and state health officials are working with the CDC and local partners to identify contacts. “I want to assure Iowans that the risk of transmission is incredibly low in our state. We continue to investigate and monitor this situation and are implementing the necessary public health protocols,” said Robert Kruse, MD, MPH, state medical director at he IDHHS.The United States has now reported eight travel-related Lassa virus cases over the past 55 years. The country reported its last imported case in 2015 in a person returning from Liberia to New Jersey.Lassa fever is typically transmitted by rodents, and though most human illnesses are mild or moderate, infections are deadly in about 1% of cases. Causing as many as 300,000 cases each year, the virus is endemic in parts of West Africa. In July, an expert group led by the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy (CIDRAP) raised concerns about the slow pace of treatments of vaccines for Lassa virus and published a roadmap to address the growing threat.
CDC offers new details on Lassa fever case in Iowa -- Late yesterday afternoon, Iowa's health department announced a fatal imported Lassa fever case. Today the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC)posted a statement on the case, emphasizing that the overall risk to the public from this case is very low. If confirmed, the case in Iowa would be the ninth imported case in the United States since 1959. All US cases have been in travelers, and Iowa authorities reported yesterday that the case-patient had recently been in West Africa.The patient died while in isolation at the University of Iowa Medical Center earlier this month. The CDC also said the patient was not symptomatic when traveling to Iowa from West Africa, meaning the risk to fellow airline passengers was extremely low."The virus is not spread through casual contact, and patients are not believed to be infectious before symptoms begin," the authors wrote. Early information suggests the patient may have had contact with rodents while in West Africa, the CDC said. Lassa virus is endemic in West Africa and spread via contact with urine or droppings of infected rodents. Rarely, the virus can be transmitted person-to-person through direct contact with a sick person's blood or other body fluids, through mucous membranes, or through sexual contact, the CDC said. "CDC is working with state public health officials to identify people who had contact with the patient after the patient's symptoms began. Those identified as close contacts of the patient will be monitored for 21 days," the agency said. Each year 100,000 to 300,000 cases of Lassa fever, and 5,000 deaths related to Lassa fever, occur in West Africa. In July, an expert group led by the University of Minnesota's Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy (CIDRAP) raised concerns about the slow pace of treatments and vaccines for Lassa virus and published a roadmap to address the growing threat.
Report details deadly meningococcal disease outbreak that hit Black adult Virginians hard - Yesterday in Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report, investigators describe a deadly outbreak of meningococcal disease primarily in Virginia's Eastern Health Planning Region from 2022 to 2024. The outbreak is notable, as almost 80% of the cases occurred in Black residents, and 63.9% were in an age group (30 to 60 years) not generally considered at increased risk of invasive meningococcal disease (IMD).From 2012 to 2022, the Eastern Health Planning Region reported an average of only one IMD case annually. In July and August 2022, four patients were identified as being infected with N. meningitidis serogroup Y."No common exposures, epidemiologic linkages, or specific risk factors were identified among the four cases," the authors wrote. From June 2022 and March 2024, officials recorded 36 confirmed and 1 probable case of IMD, with 25 in the Eastern Health Planning Region.All patients required hospitalization, and seven died from complications, resulting in a case-fatality rate for this outbreak of 19.4%.In December 2022, the Virginia Department of Health recommended that local health departments in the Eastern Region offer one dose of MenACWY vaccine, in addition to antimicrobial post-exposure prophylaxis (prevention) to a subset of close case contacts. In August 2023 the recommendation was expanded statewide."Lack of a well-defined population at risk during this outbreak posed a challenge to implementing vaccination as an outbreak control strategy," the report concluded. "In this outbreak, selective vaccination of close contacts (in addition to antimicrobial prophylaxis) was recommended in an effort to prevent additional cases among a population presumed to be at risk. Unfortunately, low vaccine acceptance precluded evaluation of the impact of this intervention on outbreak progression."
UK reports imported clade 1b mpox case -The United Kingdom today reported its first imported clade 1b mpox case, a patient who recently traveled to countries in Africa that are experiencing infection in community settings.In a statement, the UK’s Health Security Agency (HSA) said the case was detected in London and that the patient has been transferred to the Royal Free Hospital’s High Consequence Infectious Diseases unit.Susan Hopkins, MB BCh, chief medical advisor at the HSA, said, “The risk to the UK population remains low, and we are working rapidly to trace close contacts and reduce the risk of any potential spread. In accordance with established protocols, investigations are underway to learn how the individual acquired the infection and to assess whether there are any further associated cases.” The UK is the fifth country to report an imported case of clade 1b monkeypox, alongside Sweden, Thailand, Germany, and India.Different than clade 2 strain spreading globally, the novel clade 1b virus was detected amid a large outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) in April and is circulating alongside other clades and in Uganda.
Africa CDC tracks concerning mpox rise in Uganda - As mpox activity continues at a brisk pace in Africa's main hot spots, concerns are rising about an expanding outbreak in Uganda, an official with the Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (Africa CDC) said today. Over the past week, 2,345 cases were reported across the continent, along with 34 more deaths. The region this year has reported 48,093 cases, a rise of 500% compared to all of 2023, Ngashi Ngongo, MD, PhD, who leads Africa CDC's mpox incident management team, said at the agency's weekly briefing. He added that, although the region is many months into the outbreak, more firsts were reported this week, including the first case in Mauritius, raising the number of affected countries to 19, and the first death among Uganda's confirmed cases. Uganda's cases have been rising over the past 4 weeks, with 61 reported in just the past week, Ngongo said. Most of the activity is linked to clade 1b, and the outbreak dynamics are a little different than some of the country's neighbors. A higher percentage of cases (63%) in Uganda have been reported in males, with a lower proportion in children younger than 15 years old (12.5%), compared to the outbreak's main epicenter, the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC). Much of Uganda's transmission is due to cross-border and sexual activity, with new clusters reported in fishing communities, Ngongo said. Also, the virus is expanding its footprint in Uganda, with three new districts reporting cases over the past week. Officials also raised concerns about an uptick in cases in Liberia. However, they noted that five countries have passed 5 weeks with no new cases: Cameroon, Gabon, Guinea, Rwanda, and South Africa.
Marburg virus total in Rwanda rises to 65 In updates over the last 3 days, Rwanda’s health ministry has reported one more Marburg virus case. The most recent patient is a contact of an earlier identified patient, the ministry said in an October 26 update. The country now has 65 cases, of which 15 were fatal. In an update today, officials said three people are currently in treatment for their infections. The country had reported two cases a few days earlier, one of whom is a health worker, and the other has links to the site where the index patient was exposed, a cave in a mining area that harbored fruit bats known to carry the virus. After the identification of the index case in late September, nearly all cases that followed involved healthcare workers at two hospitals in Kigali. However, the two most recent cases appear to involve people from the community who were under monitoring.
South Sudan reports cholera outbreak in wake of flooding Amid unprecedented flooding across several parts of the country, South Sudan has declared a cholera outbreak, with 50 suspected cases reported so far, the World Health Organization (WHO) said today.The outbreak’s location is Renk County in northern South Sudan, a border area where refugees are fleeing armed conflict in neighboring Sudan, the WHO said.Flooding has affected more than 81,000 people and has displaced more than 46,000 in Upper Nile state, which includes Renk County.South Sudan has activated a cholera task force, and the WHO said it is working closely with health officials to provide support, including the establishment of two cholera treatment units. The WHO also said it has deployed two rapid response teams and has delivered 12 metric tons of emergency kits, enough to treat 74,000 people.Cholera activity and outbreaks have been on the rise since 2021, driven by complex factors that include population displacements and natural disasters. In a recent report, the WHO said cases this year are down from 2023 numbers, but deaths have more than doubled.
High prevalence of shigellosis found in Africa -- A systematic review and meta-analysis of studies conducted in 29 African countries found a high burden of shigellosis and concerning levels of antibiotic resistance, researchers reported this week in BMC Infectious Diseases.The review by researchers at the University of Ghana Medical School included 116 studies examining a total of 99,510 patient samples. The meta-analysis indicated that the overall pooled prevalence of Shigella bacteria across Africa was 5.9%, with regional prevalences of 6.9% in southern Africa, 6.7% in northern Africa, 6.2% in eastern Africa, 4.5% in central Africa, and 4.0% in western Africa. Shigella prevalence was found to be higher in children (6.6%) than in adults (3.6%). The most prevalent species of Shigella was Shigella flexneri (53.6%), followed by Shigella sonnei (11.5%),Shigella dysenteriae (10.1%), and Shigella boydii (7.7%). Resistance to ampicillin, trimethoprim-sulfamethoxazole, and chloramphenicol was high (77.8%, 65.1%, and 45.2%, respectively), while resistance to ceftriaxone (8.5%) and ciprofloxacin (10%) was low. Shigellosis is a highly infectious gastrointestinal condition that causes an estimated 125 million cases of diarrhea and 160,000 deaths each year. It primarily spreads through the fecal-oral route, often because of inadequate sanitation and consumption of contaminated food or water."The estimated prevalence of 5.9% for Shigellosis in the African subregion is a cause for concern, as it indicates a significant risk of exposure to Shigella spp. among the population," the study authors wrote. "This high prevalence is particularly alarming considering the severe nature of the disease and its potential for rapid transmission."The authors add the high prevalence in Africa is even more worrisome given the number of conflicts in the region, which could cause overcrowding in refugee camps and elevate the risk of Shigella transmission. Given the levels of antibiotic resistance, they call for exploration of alternative treatments for shigellosis, with a particular focus on vaccine development.
Researchers discover exotic jeilongvirus in rodent -- On a warm May day, an all-black domestic shorthair cat named Pepper entered his Gainesville, Florida, home and dropped a dead mouse on the carpet at his owner's feet. Pepper's owner, John Lednicky, Ph.D., is an expert in viruses and their transmission, including across species. Suspecting that mice might carry mule deerpox, Lednicky scooped up Pepper's trophy and took it to his University of Florida lab for testing. There, Lednicky and his team discovered that the rodent, a common cotton mouse, did not carry deerpox virus, but it did harbor a jeilongvirus, previously found in Africa, Asia, Europe, and South America. It comes from a family of viruses that infect mammals, reptiles, birds, and fish, and can occasionally cause serious illness in humans. And this wasn't just any jeilongvirus. It's genetically much different from other jeilongviruses, Lednicky said. "It grows equally well in rodent, human, and nonhuman primate (monkey) cells, making it a great candidate for a spillover event," said Lednicky, a research professor in the UF College of Public Health and a member of UF's Emerging Pathogens Institute. A spillover event is when a virus moves from one species to another. The virus, named Gainesville rodent jeilong virus 1 by the team, is the first jeilongvirus to be discovered in the U.S. "We were not anticipating a virus of this sort, and the discovery reflects the realization that many viruses that we don't know about circulate in animals that live in close proximity to humans. And indeed, were we to look, many more would be discovered," said Emily DeRuyter, a doctoral candidate in the Department of Environmental and Global Health who specializes in One Health. She is also a Lednicky mentee and first author of the paper describing the virus's discovery that appears in the journal Pathogens. Jeilongviruses are not yet well understood, but they are a type of paramyxovirus, which is associated with respiratory infections. While the finding that Gainesville rodent jeilong virus 1 can infect many different species is troubling, DeRuyter said, there is no need to panic. Most humans have little direct contact with jeilongviruses' main hosts, wild rats and mice. Take, for example, hantavirus, another virus found in wild rodents. "Humans can develop severe to fatal illness if they get infected by hantaviruses, but so far, those types of infections remain rare and typically occur only among people who come into contact with rodent waste, often through airborne exposure to rodent urine or fecal material," DeRuyter said.
Report details locally acquired malaria case in Arkansas last fall | CIDRAP 00For the first time in 20 years, the United States recorded locally acquired malaria cases last year. A report published late last week in Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report details the 10th US case, in Arkansas. The previous cases were in Florida, Texas, and Maryland.Since the 1970s, cases of travel-associated malaria have ticked upward in the United States, with 2,048 such cases recorded in 2019 by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC).The authors explained the Anopheles mosquito species present across the United States can acquire Plasmodium infection from patients with travel-associated malaria. The mosquitoes can then transmit the parasite to people who haven't traveled. In September of 2023, a resident with no travel history in Saline County, Arkansas, was hospitalized after 10 days of illness. In addition to no recent travel, the person had no record of blood transfusion, organ transplant, or other bloodborne pathogen exposure.Blood-count analysis was suggestive of malaria, and a pathologist's review of thick and thin blood smears verified the presence of Plasmodium vivax/Plasmodium ovale gametocytes. This finding was later confirmed by the CDC."As of September 2024, no additional autochthonous malaria cases had been identified in Arkansas," the authors said. "Although the risk for locally acquired malaria in the United States remains very low, its reemergence highlights the importance of vectorborne disease preparedness and response efforts."
Ethiopia battles unprecedented malaria surge -Ethiopia is experiencing its worst malaria outbreak in 7 years, with more than 7.3 million cases reported since the first of the year, along with 1,157 deaths, the World Health Organization (WHO) said in anotification yesterday. Plasmodium falciparum is responsible for two thirds of the cases. Owing to favorable ecologic conditions, the western part of the country has faced the biggest disease burden, with the most cases reported in Oromia, Amhara, Southwest, and South Ethiopia Regional State. Males account for 56% of outpatient cases and 52% of inpatient admissions, which the WHO said may reflect movements of seasonal workers to high-malaria-burden areas. Ethiopia's malaria activity has increased over the past 4 years. In previous years, cases have peaked after primary and secondary rainy seasons, but outbreaks have persisted in several regions, including after the secondary season this spring. The WHO said the increasing trend and expanding endemic areas are likely related to several factors, including reduced vector-control efforts, protracted conflicts leading to population displacement, and loss of immunity due to reductions in malaria control efforts.The national risk to Ethiopia is high due to the spread of Anopheles stephensi mosquitoes, which thrive in urban areas, weather anomalies, drought, food insecurity, and poor security, the WHO said. Meanwhile, the risk to the region is moderate for neighboring countries, which are also experiencing outbreaks.
H5N1 avian flu isolate from dairy worker is transmissible, lethal in animals - In experiments designed to learn more about the threat from the H5N1 avian flu virus spreading from cows to people, researchers found that an isolate from a sick dairy worker may be capable of replicating in human airway cells, is pathogenic in mice and ferrets, and can transmit among ferrets by respiratory droplets. The team, based at the University of Wisconsin at Madison and Japan, reported its findings today in Nature. Working in a high-containment lab, the researchers used an H5N1 isolate grown from the eye of a dairy worker who had experienced conjunctivitis after exposure to infected cows.They found that the virus has a PB2-E627K mutation that has been seen in H5N1 viruses that replicate in mammals.In their multipart investigation, they found that the virus was sensitive to most antivirals, including favipiravir, baloxavir marboxil, and zanamivir, but was less sensitive to oseltamivir, according to a press release from the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID), which funded much of the work.Tests using human cornea and lung cells found that the virus was able to replicate. And, in mouse tissue experiments, the scientists found that the H5N1 virus was able to infect 15 different tissues, with the highest levels seen in respiratory tissues.Meanwhile, the team infected ferrets with a high dose of the virus from the dairy worker, and the infection pattern was more similar to human infections than mice infections. Ferrets are known as one of the best animal models for influenza in humans, because clinical signs of disease and transmission are similar.All ferrets died within 5 days, and tissue sampling found the virus in all types, with the highest levels in the animals' respiratory tissues. In contrast, earlier research using a bovine H5N1 virus to infect ferrets found that the infections were severe, but not as lethal.To gauge respiratory transmission, the team placed healthy ferrets in cages next to ferrets that were infected with different doses of the virus from the dairy worker. From 17% to 33% of ferrets in adjacent cages were infected by respiratory droplets, suggesting that the virus from humans can spread among mammals by that route, but with limited efficiency. All directly infected ferrets died within 6 days."Based in these observations, every effort should be made to contain HPAI [highly pathogenic avian influenza] H5N1 outbreaks in dairy cattle to limit the possibility of further human infections," they wrote.California today reported another suspected human H5N1 infection, which if confirmed by the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) would raise the state's total 16. The CDC on October 25 confirmed 3 more infections in Washington poultry cullers, bringing the national total to 34. Once the California infection is confirmed by the CDC, the national total would rise to 35.Meanwhile, the surge in outbreaks continues in California dairy cattle. The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS) has confirmed 41 more outbreaks, raising the state's total to 178 and the national total to 380 from 14 states.Also, APHIS confirmed more outbreaks in poultry in the West, this time in Oregon, including an egg-laying farm in Clackamas County that has 146,000 birds and a backyard facility in Crook County.The agency also confirmed an outbreak at another broiler farm in Tulare County, California, and another in backyard poultry in Washington.
More human avian flu cases in Washington state, California -The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) said there are 6 confirmed human casesof H5 avian flu in Washington state, as well as 3 more cases in California, raising the national total of human cases to 36 in the United States. In both Washington and California, the new cases have occurred in workers on affected farms. "The farm workers in California and Washington state all described mild symptoms, many with eye redness or discharge (conjunctivitis). Some cases in Washington reported some mild upper respiratory symptoms," the CDC said in an update. So far 15 of the human cases have been associated with exposure to H5N1-infected poultry, and 20 have been associated with exposure to sick or infected dairy cows. One case in Missouri has an unknown exposure source. Serologic testing of case contacts in Missouri shows no signs of human-to-human spread. In related news, the US Department of Agriculture Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service has confirmed 8 more H5N1 detections in California dairy cattle, raising the state's total to 186 and the national total to 388 affected herds.
Utah reports avian flu in dairy cows as USDA announces plan for bulk milk sampling - The Utah Department of Agriculture and Food (UDAF) yesterday announced that highly pathogenic avian flu has been confirmed at eight of the state’s commercial dairy farms, a development veterinary officials had been bracing for following a recent poultry outbreak that involved the cattle H5N1 genotype. The eight facilities are located in Cache County, where bulk milk tank sampling had recently been ordered. The UDAF said the samples were initially tested at the Utah Veterinary Diagnostic Laboratory in Logan, and tests at the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) National Veterinary Services Laboratory have confirmed the findings. State veterinarian Daniel Christensen, DVM, said mandatory surveillance and animal movement restrictions are key steps to prevent further spread of the virus. “At this time we don’t anticipate any major impacts on the food supply and the overall impacts to individual dairies are relatively minimal. This disease is not as harmful to dairy cattle as it is to poultry,” he said. After confirming the virus in a poultry flock in Cache County earlier this month, the UDAF quickly announced mandatory weekly bulk milk tanks sampling for all of the county’s dairies. In other developments, the USDA Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service today confirmed 9 more H5N1 outbreaks at California dairy farms, raising the state’s total to 202 and the national total to 404, which will rise to 412 once the Utah’s outbreaks are added to the list. California and Colorado—two of the hardest hit states—had instituted mandatory bulk milk tank testing to get a better grip on the extent of spread in dairy cows. Yesterday, APHIS announceda tiered strategy to collect milk samples to better assess where H5N1 is present proactively support effective biosecurity measures and to help state minimize the risk to farm workers. It noted that bulk milk testing helped stamp out brucellosis in US dairy herds and that Colorado’s use of the testing helped the state stem its surge over summer months. APHIS said in the weeks ahead it will work with regions and states that are ready to expand bulk milk testing. The rollout of testing will begin at the regional level, with additional testing at the farm level, if needed, until all herds are free of the virus. “USDA will continue to work with state and private veterinarians on the final details of implementation, and will share guidance documents soon,” it said. The Washington State Department of Health yesterday reported three more avian flu infections in poultry cullers, raising the state’s total to nine. The cullers were part of a response to an outbreak at a large layer farm in Franklin County. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has confirmed all nine of Washington’s cases, which it said puts the national total for the year at 39. All but one involved farm worker exposure to sick poultry or cows. Elsewhere, APHIS has confirmed four more avian flu outbreak at California broiler farms, one in Tulare County and three in Kings County. Both counties are in the state’s Central Valley, the part of California hit hard by the H5N1 outbreaks in dairy cattle. USDA also reported a new outbreak in backyard poultry in Tulare County. It’s not clear if the outbreaks are due to the cattle genotype or to a wild bird H5N1 genotype. A few western states have reported upticks in poultry outbreak that has coincided with the seasonal migration of wild birds along the Pacific Flyway. The California Department of Agriculture and Food said in an update yesterday that the source of virus is under investigation. It will conduct tests at other farms over the next several weeks to determine the extent of the spread.
USDA announces first H5N1 avian flu detection in US pigs - Federal officials today announced the first H5N1 avian flu detection in pigs, which was on a backyard farm in Oregon where an outbreak was recently reported in poultry. In a statement from the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS), officials said the farm is located in Crook County in Oregon, which has a mix of poultry and livestock, including five pigs. The quarantined location also has sheep and goats.When H5N1 emerged in dairy cattle earlier this year, officials worried about potential spread to pigs, due to the impact on farming and food supply, but also because pigs are known to be a mixing vessel for zoonotic and human influenza viruses. However, it’s not yet clear if the pigs had systemic infection or if contamination on the farm led to positive nasal swab results. The pigs and poultry shared water sources, housing, and equipment, factors known to enable transmission between the species, APHIS aid.Though the pigs showed no illness signs, the Oregon Department of Health and the USDA tested the five pigs out of an abundance of caution. The pigs were euthanized for additional diagnostic analysis. Test results were negative for two pigs and are pending for two others.“This farm is a non-commercial operation, and the animals were not intended for the commercial food supply. There is no concern about the safety of the nation’s pork supply as a result of this finding,” APHIS said.The group had confirmed the virus in the backyard flock on October 25. The Oregon Department of Agriculture said today that 70 birds were humanly euthanized last week and that the location is under quarantine.Initial genetic sequencing has been done at the USDA’s National Veterinary Services Laboratories, and though the genotype wasn’t noted, officials said there are no H5N1 changes to suggest the virus is more transmissible to humans.The H5N1 detection in pigs comes amid a recent rise in poultry outbreaks in some western states, which has occurred alongside wild bird migration along the Pacific Flyway.
CWD confirmed in captive deer in upstate New York -- A case of chronic wasting disease (CWD) has been confirmed on an upstate New York deer farm, according to a press release yesterday from the New York State Department of Environmental Conservation (DEC).After the case was identified through routine Departments of Agriculture and Markets surveillance in DEC Region 6, the state activated its interagency CWD response plan to investigate the detection and increase surveillance of wild deer in the area. "While there is no evidence that CWD is present in wild deer at this time, DEC will initiate enhanced surveillance in wild deer, working with local hunters, processors, and taxidermists in the area," DEC said. "Efforts are also underway to collect roadkill to determine if CWD is present in wild deer. This enhanced sampling and monitoring will inform additional actions to guide the state’s disease management strategy." CWD, a neurologic disease that affects cervids such as deer, elk, moose, and reindeer, was first confirmed in New York among captive and wild deer in 2005 in Oneida County, also located in Region 6. "Since that time, DEC has tested more than 65,000 wild deer statewide with no additional cases discovered in New York," the release said. The illness is caused by misfolded infectious proteins called prions, which are extremely resilient and can persist in the environment for years. CWD poses an ongoing threat to cervids, because it can spread from animal to animal and through environmental contamination. The disease isn't known to infect humans, but officials recommend not eating meat from a sick animal and using precautions when field-dressing or butchering cervids.
Texas confirms CWD at deer farm, first case in Kerr County -Chronic wasting disease (CWD) has been identified at a Kerr County, Texas, deer farm, the county's first confirmed detection, the Texas Parks and Wildlife Department (TPWD) reported yesterday.A 3-year-old white-tailed doe tested positive for the fatal prion disease on routine postmortem testing, a finding confirmed by the National Veterinary Services Laboratory (NVSL) in Ames, Iowa. The exact location of the farm wasn't disclosed in the news release.In December 2023, after a 14-month-old white-tailed buck at the Kerr Wildlife Management Area deer-research facility initially tested positive for CWD, TPWD euthanized all deer in the herd, only to receive a negative test resultin January 2024 from the NVSL. No other deer tested positive. TPWD said the decision to cull the herd ended nearly 50 years of white-tailed deer research at the facility. CWD was first found in Texas in 2012 in a wild mule deer in the Hueco Mountains near the state's border with New Mexico. Since then, it has been identified in captive and wild cervids, including white-tailed deer, mule deer, red deer, and elk, TPWD said. CWD, a neurologic disease caused by misfolded infectious proteins called prions, affects cervids such as deer, elk, moose, and reindeer. Prions are extremely resilient and can persist in the environment for years. CWD poses an ongoing threat to cervids, because it can spread from animal to animal and through environmental contamination. The disease isn't known to infect humans, but officials recommend not eating meat from a sick animal and using precautions when field-dressing or butchering cervids.
Keeping fewer friends protects aging monkeys from diseases, study finds Becoming less sociable protects older monkeys from getting ill, new research shows. Many animals, including humans, are known to experience "social aging"—reductions in their number of social connections as they get older. But why this happens remains a mystery. The new study, led by the universities of Exeter and Edinburgh, used long-term data on rhesus macaques on Cayo Santiago—known as Monkey Island. They found that older macaques are likely to suffer less from infectious disease, mostly because of their smaller social networks. The study, "Social aging can protect against infectious disease in a group-living primate," is published as part of a special issue of Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B, "Social ties bring huge benefits to a vast range of species—but sociality also comes with costs, including infectious disease risk," said Dr. Erin Siracusa, from Exeter's Center for Research in Animal Behavior. "This cost-benefit ratio can change across individuals' lifespans, which may drive changes in social behavior. "Older individuals may be more susceptible to diseases—but once we accounted for that in our data, we found that older macaques suffered lower infection costs than their younger counterparts. "Our findings suggest a powerful reason why many animals, including humans, might reduce their social connections as they age." The benefits macaques gained from social aging depended on the diseases in question. Unsurprisingly, the benefit was strongest when diseases were highly infectious and were more severe for older macaques.
Study shows bleak outlook for koalas in Central QLD without intervention - Central Queensland's endangered koala population is facing a dire future if nothing is done to prevent the number of animals being killed by vehicles. That's according to CQUniversity and Griffith University koala researchers who have released findings from two separate studies focused on a stretch of the Peak Downs Highway, between Mackay and Nebo in Queensland. The studies are published in Animals and the Australasian Journal of Environmental Management.. Lead researcher CQUniversity's Dr. Rolf Schlagloth said Koala Research-CQ and its collaborators have analyzed koala roadkill data spanning nearly a decade, and the outcomes aren't good. Over this 51 km section of highway, 145 koalas were struck by vehicles in 2023 (to November 25), with 83% of the koalas dying as a result. These koalas were otherwise in good health. In comparison, 365 koalas in the entire South East Queensland region are sent into care due to vehicle collisions each year. "There are horrendous numbers of koalas getting hit and killed by vehicles every year on this relatively short stretch of road, with no reduction in sight," Dr. Schlagloth said. "We've found that because of the amount and the mostly uniform distribution of good quality habitat, koalas are unfortunately killed nearly anywhere along this highway. Separating koalas and vehicles is difficult on the existing highway, but researchers believe future avoidance of high-quality koala habitat for highway infrastructure, in addition to constructing or retrofitting protective or diversionary infrastructure—which has already been started by the managing authority in several locations—could help reduce roadkill. However, initial attempts to separate traffic and wildlife via retrofitted bridges are yet to bring good news to researchers—and the koala population. "We have monitored three bridges that had been retrofitted with short sections of wildlife exclusion/diversion fencing to encourage koalas (and other wildlife) to pass underneath the road rather than taking the risk of crossing the road proper," Dr. Schlagloth said. "While rare usage of other, similar structures by koalas has been reported, unfortunately, despite monitoring these underpasses, we have not found any evidence of koalas having used them to get to the other side of the road, while we do have evidence of koalas having crossed the highway successfully and unsuccessfully near those underpasses."
Dingoes are not mating with dogs—but that could soon change if culling continues The dingo was completely isolated from other canines on the Australian mainland for more than 5,000 years, until domestic dogs arrived on the scene. Subsequent concerns about livestock loss formed the basis of Australia's "wild dog" (dingo) pest control programs, which continue today. Stretching 5,614km across Australia, the "dingo fence" or "dog fence" was built in the 1880s to keep dingoes away from livestock in the southeast.Dingoes are protected as a threatened species in Victoria. But dingo–dog hybrids are considered pests, and therefore allowed to be killed.Unfortunately, past research claimed to find evidence dingo-dog hybrids are common in the wild across eastern Australia. This research has been used to defend the trapping, poisoning and shooting of these animals in some parts of Australia, particularly Victoria.But other studies and now our new genetic research, published in Evolution Letters, show dingoes are not breeding with domestic dogs in the wild. Rather, they are maintaining their independence as a unique evolutionary branch.Our research also highlights the precarious state of dingo populations in Victoria. We fear dingo genetic diversity will continue to decline as long as lethal control measures are used. Ironically, this could prompt dingoes to mate with dogs to survive.
Beehive fences prove effective against elephant raids in Kenya - A groundbreaking, nine-year study has revealed that elephants approaching small-scale farms in Kenya avoid beehive fences housing live honey bees up to 86% of the time during peak crop seasons, helping to reduce human-elephant conflict for local farmers and boost income. The study, published in the journal Conservation Science and Practice, offers promising insights into using nature-based solutions to protect both livelihoods and wildlife. The study was conducted by the research charity Save the Elephants (STE) in collaboration with the Wildlife Research and Training Institute (WRTI), Kenya Wildlife Service (KWS), and the University of Oxford. However, researchers caution that ongoing habitat degradation and persistent droughts could threaten the long-term effectiveness of this natural deterrent. Kenya is facing rapid human population growth, with a 59.4% increase between 2000 and 2020, which has led to the shrinking of elephant habitats as human settlements and infrastructure expand. Finding sustainable ways for people and elephants to coexist is becoming an urgent challenge for KWS, responsible for protecting the country's natural resources amid growing economic development needs. Keeping elephants safely away from subsistence farms is a major focus of Save the Elephants' Coexistence Program. Beehive fences, introduced in 2007 by STE and KWS, in partnership with the University of Oxford, offer an innovative approach. These fences consist of a series of live beehives strung together between posts, creating a physical, auditory, and olfactory deterrent to elephants. The elephants' natural fear of being stung keeps them away, while the fences also benefit farmers by providing pollination services and generating income through honey and wax production.
Survey assesses Mexican consumers' opinions on GMO corn import ban - A fully implemented ban on genetically modified corn in Mexico could disproportionately affect the nation's lower-income consumers, according to a recently published study by agricultural economists with the University of Arkansas System Division of Agriculture. It would also have a negative impact on American farmers. Over 90% of corn grown in the United States is genetically modified, and Mexico is the second-largest importer of U.S. corn after China. Eggs and poultry meat account for about half of protein intake, and tortillas provide 13 to 20% of caloric intake for Mexicans, according to articles and studies cited in the Division of Agriculture study titled "Potential response of Mexican consumers to a ban on genetically modified maize imports." The findings are published in the journal Food Security. "More than half of the people we surveyed in Mexico were not even aware of the ban, and of those who did know about it and supported it, many of them changed their opinion when they saw how much prices could go up and how many jobs could be lost," said Brandon McFadden, a lead author of the study and a professor of agricultural economics and agribusiness for the Arkansas Agricultural Experiment Station, the research arm of the Division of Agriculture. "While this study primarily focused on the impacts to Mexican maize consumers, there are tangible impacts to the U.S. maize industry from the ban," Nalley said. "Mexico relies heavily on U.S. maize imports, mainly yellow maize, for livestock production. Since over 90 percent of U.S. maize is genetically modified, the decree would drastically impact bilateral trade should the GM ban be implemented." Maize is the Spanish word for what is called corn in the U.S. The industry uses "GM" and "GMO" interchangeably for genetically modified, or genetically modified organisms.
Humanity consumes nearly seven trillion cubic meters of water per year to grow crops worldwide: Study -- A new study by researchers at the UT sheds light on historical changes in the amount of water humanity consumes to grow the world's main crops. The analysis demonstrates that despite increasing crop water productivity, the total amount of water we consume keeps growing, which may exacerbate the already existing myriad of related environmental and socio-economic issues. The study, published in Environmental Research Letters, looks at 175 crops from the 1990–2019 period in terms of their green and blue water footprints. Green water refers to water coming from rainfall and blue water comes from irrigation and shallow groundwater. "We need to differentiate between these two water types as they play different roles in ecosystems and society," says Oleksandr Mialyk, a postdoctoral researcher at the Multidisciplinary Water Management group. Nearly 80% of analyzed crops required less water per ton in 2019 compared to 1990. However, these productivity gains were insufficient to stop the global total water footprint of crop production from increasing. Since 1990, the latter has increased by almost 30% or 1.55 trillion m3. "Our estimate for 2019 stands at 6.8 trillion m3 of mainly green water, which is around 2,400 liters per person per day," adds Mialyk. Close to 90% of the total increase occurred between 2000 and 2019 which the authors link to three main socio-economic drivers. First, accelerated globalization and economic growth substantially increased the consumption of various imported crops and crop products. Second, global diets shifted to more water-intensive products such as animal produce, sweetened drinks, and sugary & fatty foods. Third, the energy security and green agendas of many governments boosted the production of crop-based biofuels. These socio-economic changes mostly favored the cultivation of flex crops or crops which can be processed into many diverse products (food, animal feed, biofuels, etc.). These crops allow farmers, investors, and insurers to reduce financial risks associated with crop production as diverse end-user markets ensure stable profits and return on investments. Combined with active agricultural lobbyism, the production of these crops rapidly increased over the last decades. For example, just the three largest ones—oil palm fruit, soya beans, and maize—can explain half of the total increase in the total water footprint of crop production between 1990–2019.
Balancing nutrient levels and fishery health in Lake Erie - There's a famous piece of advice from hockey, attributed to Wayne Gretzky, about how it's better to skate to where the puck is headed rather than where it is. Research is now showing that regulations designed to protect Lake Erie's water quality are heeding the Great One's words when it comes to safeguarding the Great Lake's fisheries. The research has been published in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. Specifically, the currently recommended limits on the flow of nutrients into Lake Erie from agriculture may be too restrictive for some species of fish. They are, however, suited to maintain healthy fisheries until the middle of this century amid a warming climate, according to a new study led by the University of Michigan. "Hitting the target for the future is the right thing to do now," said Don Scavia, professor emeritus at U-M's School for Environment and Sustainability. "Even though the proposed limits are too much for now, I don't think they should be relaxed because it takes a decade or longer to affect change." This is but one takeaway from the study led by Scavia with collaborators from across the United States and in Asia. In the project, the team linked forward-looking climate projections and nearly a century of fishery data with a mathematical model of Lake Erie's nutrient load and a water quality indicator—namely, the oxygen available in the lake's depths. With all these factors considered, the researchers showed that the relationships aren't as straightforward as the casual observer might expect. For example, while cutting back on nutrients does improve water quality, that doesn't necessarily benefit all fish. "There are tradeoffs," Scavia said. And, moving forward, warming temperatures—rather than nutrient load—will become the dominant influence over the oxygen in Lake Erie and similar ecosystems around the world. Taken altogether, this means that there's no simple solution to managing these ecosystems. And the solutions rolled out today will need to be continuously evaluated and reassessed in the future. The nutrients in fertilizers that farmers use to feed plants also feed aquatic microorganisms like algae and cyanobacteria. Nutrient-rich runoff water from fields helps fuel the infamous algal blooms in Lake Erie—as well as, for example, in the northern Gulf of Mexico and Chesapeake Bay. When the algae and cyanobacteria in those blooms die, they sink to the bottom of the water and decompose, consuming enough oxygen in the process to render the water hypoxic. Even underwater, oxygen is essential for life and so hypoxic bottom water regions are often referred to as "dead zones." Hypoxia is bad news for lake whitefish that prefer the cold bottom water of Lake Erie, said Stuart Ludsin, a professor in the Aquatic Ecology Laboratory at Ohio State University. Climate dead zones and fish map Credit: University of Michigan But, while the cyanobacteria in algal blooms thrive in fertile, nutrient-rich waters, so too do the plankton that feed the lake's larger fish. And not all of those fish live at depths where hypoxia is a problem. Yellow perch, for instance, actually benefit from water that's richer in nutrients, Ludsin said. At present, the level of nutrient inputs is beneficial to yellow perch and walleye but limiting bottom habitat for whitefish. Finding the right balance between fishery and water quality considerations is a delicate and ever-moving target, Ludsin said, complicated by the fact that the lake's microbes proliferate faster in warmer temperatures. "I don't want to see my research being used to say we should pollute to keep the fisheries highly productive," Ludsin said. "If there's no effort to curtail this hypoxia and water quality problem, with continued climate change, the lake will not be able to support vital fish."
California's 2024 Dungeness crab season postponed to protect whales - For the sixth consecutive year, California officials are delaying the Bay Area's commercial Dungeness crab season because of the "high abundance" of migrating humpback whales already getting ensnared by old crab-pot fishing lines and other gear—while conservation groups are again expressing frustration with what they say is a too-slow transition to safer fishing methods. The upcoming season normally would start Nov. 15 in the waters from the Sonoma/Mendocino County line south to the Mexican border. The decision came down on Friday afternoon from Charlton H. Bonham, director of the California Department of Fish and Wildlife, and was made in consultation with representatives of the fishing industry, environmental organizations and scientists. According to the nonprofit conservation group Oceana, a participant in those discussions, during the period from May to Oct. 21 of this year, four humpback whales were confirmed entangled in California commercial Dungeness crab fishing gear. Ten others were observed entangled in "unknown fishing gear that may be Dungeness crab gear." Other entanglements were sighted the past few days, said marine scientist Caitlynn Birch, Oceana's campaign manager. Both she and representatives from the Center for Biological Diversity spoke out in favor of the use of rope-less or pop-up gear to give whales a safe migration south. "I'm glad state officials are taking precautions to avoid entangling whales in the area, but with viable pop-up gear available, these season delays are getting increasingly archaic," said Ben Grundy, oceans campaigner at the Center for Biological Diversity, in a statement. He noted that if the state had authorized the use of pop-up gear—which he said has performed well in tests—"crab fishers could be prepping to put their traps in the water right now." Although another assessment will take place on or around Nov. 22, that date will make it impossible for crab to make an appearance on Thanksgiving dinner tables on Nov. 28. That assessment could, however, lead to an opening date in early December.
Study reveals DDT persists in Southern California's coast --Toxic pesticides dumped off Southern California’s coast decades ago are staying put — deep in adjacent ocean sediments and in the fish that reside in these habitats, a new study has found. Current levels of dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethane (DDT), an agricultural insecticide banned in 1972, remain highest in sediments and fish located closest to the old discharge sites, according to the study, published Monday in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. DDT contamination remains persistent in the Palos Verdes region about 15 miles off the coast of Catalina Island, according to the previous research.From about 1948 to 1961, barges contracted by DDT-producer Montrose Chemical Corporation released waste that held up to 2 percent pure DDT directly into the Pacific Ocean in this area, past studies have shown. An estimated 100 tons of the chemical ended up in the Palos Verdes sediments offshore. Ultimately, the Environmental Protection Agency declared the area a hazardous waste site in 1996, and four years later, a judge ordered Montrose to pay $140 million in damages. Research has since confirmed contamination and health issues in local sea lions, dolphins, bottom-feeding fish and coastal California condors. As such, the ways in which the compounds move through the food chain have been under increasing scrutiny. Monday’s study was able to reveal robust relationships between DDT concentrations in fish and their precise habitat, diet and location — information the authors said they hope will lead to more accurate fish consumption advisories. “I was surprised by how strong the relationship was,” lead author Lillian McGill, a postdoctoral researcher at the University of California San Diego’s Scripps Institution of Oceanography, said in a statement. That relationship, McGill continued, was “strong enough to reasonably predict DDT concentrations in a fish based on where it was caught and its diet and habitat.” To investigate these connections, the scientists compiled information from nine datasets, which included 60 fish species in the area from 1998 to 2021. After analyzing chemical concentrations in both ocean sediments and fish, the researchers used statistical models to unravel the relationships between DDT distribution and location, diet and habitat of the species. In encouraging news, the researchers said they found that DDT contamination in fish has declined over time and that most fish caught in the region were safe for consumption. “The jury is still out, but I think one of the main reasons for the decrease is that the contaminated sediment is slowly being buried by new sediment,” said co-author Brice Semmens, a Scripps marine biologist, in a statement. “This could be why we are seeing less in the food web over time,” Semmens added. Nonetheless, the scientists did identify some notable exceptions, including bottom-dwellers like halibut that were caught near highly contaminated areas, such as Palos Verdes. Overall, the researchers observed that the highest DDT concentrations were found near these dump sites, even though they have been out of commission for half a century. These findings, the authors stressed, attest to the ability of certain chemical pollutants to persist in the ocean over time.
Coral exudates, not algae, linked to bacterial growth that threaten reefs -A study led by the University of Bremen suggests that on algae-dominated coral reefs, it is not the algae but the corals themselves that may contribute to the growth of harmful bacteria. This discovery suggests that a disturbance in the natural composition of the water jeopardizes marine ecosystems. "The discovery is surprising," explains lead author Dr. Bianca Thobor from the Department of Marine Ecology at the University of Bremen. "We initially thought that algal exudates—dissolved organic substances released by algae—were the main drivers of harmful bacterial growth. However, our findings suggest that on algae-dominated reefs, the corals' exudates themselves could instead play a significant role in this process." The researchers say the balance of dissolved organic substances in the water is crucial. The study, which has now been published in mSystems, provides unexpected results: In an algae-overgrown coral reef, it is the exudates of the corals themselves that promote the growth of harmful bacteria, not those of the algae. "This suggests that the prevalent composition of dissolved organic substances in the water is crucial. A change in this composition can disturb this balance. For example, a change in the respective abundances of corals and algae due to human influences, can promote the growth of harmful microorganisms," says the biologist.
Invasive plants drive homogenization of soil microbial communities across US, new study finds - Invasive plants are doing more than just taking over landscapes—they're also changing the soil beneath them. A new study co-authored by Matthew McCary, assistant professor of biosciences at Rice University, reveals that these species are reshaping soil microbial communities across the U.S., making them more uniform and altering how ecosystems function. The findings, published in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, shed light on the far-reaching impacts of invasive plants, which extend beyond what we see above ground. The research, based on data from 377 plots nationwide, shows that invasive plants with fast-growing root systems outcompete native species and disrupt the natural balance of soil microbes. This process known as biotic homogenization leads to less diverse ecosystems as ecological communities become more similar over time. The study highlights a critical yet often overlooked aspect of plant invasions: their profound belowground effects on soil health and biodiversity, . "Invasive plants can fundamentally alter the soil beneath them," McCary said. "In areas with high levels of invasion, we observed a striking similarity in soil microbial communities across different ecosystems and geographical regions, which was not the case in areas dominated by native plants."
One in three tree species at risk of extinction: report - More than one in three species of trees are at risk of extinction worldwide, threatening life as we know it on Earth, according to a report published Monday. The warning came in the Global Tree Assessment, contained in an update of the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List of Threatened Species. Issued to coincide with the UN's COP16 summit on biodiversity, held in the Colombian city of Cali, the report said over 16,000 tree species are at risk of extinction. More than 47,000 species were assessed for the study, out of an estimated 58,000 species thought to exist in the world. Trees are felled for logging and to clear land for farming and human expansion. Climate change poses an additional threat through worsening drought and wildfires. The numbers are not merely symbolic. People "rely on tree species for food, timber, fuels (and) medicines," expert Emily Beech told AFP. They also make the oxygen we breathe, and absorb heat-trapping carbon dioxide emissions from the atmosphere. "Trees are essential to support life on Earth through their vital role in ecosystems, and millions of people depend upon them for their lives and livelihoods," said IUCN director general Grethel Aguilar. A 2015 study estimated there are about three trillion individual trees in the world. Ginkgo trees are among the species at risk of extinction, according to a new report. The study, published in the science journal Nature, estimated that over 15 billion trees are cut down each year, and the global number of trees has fallen by nearly half since the start of human civilization. Over 5,000 of the species on the IUCN Red List are used for construction timber, and more than 2,000 species for medicines, food and fuels. Species at risk include the horse chestnut and ginkgo, both used for medical applications, the big leaf mahogany used in furniture making, as well as several ash, magnolia and eucalypt species.
United States sees record-breaking 24 billion-dollar weather disasters in 2024, with 418 fatalities - The United States experienced a record-breaking 24 “billion-dollar” weather and climate disasters thus far in 2024, each incurring significant economic damage and resulting in the loss of 418 lives. This year’s toll greatly exceeds the long-term annual average of 8.5 events recorded between 1980 and 2023 and surpasses the recent five-year average of 20.4 events. According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), as of November 2024, the U.S. has experienced 24 climate and weather disaster events, each resulting in economic losses exceeding USD 1 billion.Among these billion-dollar disasters, 17 were severe storms, four were tropical cyclones, one was a wildfire, and two were winter storms.These disasters claimed 418 lives and caused damages totaling approximately USD 61.6 billion, nearly matching the annual average from 1980 to 2023 of USD 62 billion.The average number of billion-dollar disaster events per year from 1980 to 2023 was 8.5, with the average for the past five years (2019 – 2023) rising to 20.4 events annually. This makes 2024 a record-breaking year in terms of billion-dollar disasters, with two full months still to go.Since 1980, including 2024, the U.S. has experienced 400 such billion-dollar disasters, with total losses exceeding USD 2.785 trillion. The National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI), part of NOAA, plays a central role in tracking severe weather and climate events across the United States.As the nation’s primary source for climate and weather-related data, NCEI compiles extensive datasets to assess the economic and societal impacts of these disasters. Billion-dollar disaster counting in the United States started in 1980.
- Based on this dataset, and according to available data as of October 30, the costliest disaster in 2024 was the “Central, Southern, Southeastern Tornado Outbreak,” which incurred an estimated USD 6.6 billion in damages. This event, occurring in May, generated an extensive tornado outbreak across central, southern, and southeastern U.S. states, including Oklahoma, Kansas, and Nebraska.The event produced over 165 tornadoes, including high-intensity EF-3 and EF-4 classifications, which caused widespread destruction to homes, businesses, and infrastructure. In Oklahoma, towns like Barnsdall and Bartlesville were particularly hard-hit by violent EF-4 tornadoes, leading to substantial losses.
- The next costliest event, the “Central and Southern Severe Weather,” took place in March, resulting in approximately USD 6.0 billion in damages.This severe weather system affected numerous states, including Kansas, Oklahoma, and Missouri, where hail, high winds, and tornadoes caused substantial damage to buildings and vehicles. Ohio was also impacted, with an EF-3 tornado striking the northwestern region, contributing to the economic and infrastructural damage toll.
- Hurricane “Helene” ranks as one of the most destructive hurricanes in 2024, with its full economic cost yet to be confirmed but expected to be substantial. Helene struck Florida’s Big Bend region in September as a Category 4 hurricane with 225 km/h (140 mph) winds.Helene’s impact extended far beyond landfall, triggering catastrophic flooding across western North Carolina, southwestern Virginia, and eastern Tennessee. In North Carolina, rainfall totals exceeded 762 mm (30 inches), surpassing historic flood records set in 1916. The flooding, along with associated landslides and debris flows, destroyed homes, businesses, and critical infrastructure, making Helene one of the deadliest storms since Hurricane “Katrina,” with 225 recorded fatalities.
- Hurricane “Beryl,” another high-impact storm, made landfall in Texas in July, causing USD 7.2 billion in damages. Beryl’s landfall brought intense winds, leading to widespread power outages that affected millions. Eastern Texas, Louisiana, and Arkansas experienced over 50 tornadoes spawned by Beryl’s passage, compounding the destruction.Significantly, Beryl was the earliest Category 5 hurricane recorded in the Atlantic in July, intensifying the storm’s unprecedented impact on the Gulf Coast.
- In May, “Central, Southern, and Eastern Severe Weather” led to losses totaling USD 4.9 billion, impacting states from Nebraska to Wisconsin. An EF-4 tornado with peak winds of 300 km/h (185 mph) struck Iowa, carving a 70 km (44 miles) path and leaving extensive damage in its wake. Several states experienced high wind and hail damage during this multi-day event, further adding to the losses.
- The “Central Tornado Outbreak” followed shortly after, bringing USD 3.4 billion in damages and resulting in 16 fatalities. Over 110 tornadoes tore through central states like Missouri, Texas, and Illinois, including an EF-3 tornado that cut through Montague, Cooke, and Denton counties in Texas, with winds reaching 225 km/h (140 mph). This outbreak caused extensive damage to homes, businesses, and agricultural assets.
- In Colorado, “Severe Hail Storms and Southern Severe Weather” in May resulted in USD 3.0 billion in damages, with no fatalities reported. Eastern Colorado experienced some of the largest hail recorded this year, with golf ball- to baseball-sized hail causing considerable damage to property and infrastructure. Southern regions, particularly in Texas, also faced high wind damage.
- The “Southern Tornado Outbreak and East Coast Storm” in January inflicted damages of USD 2.7 billion and resulted in three fatalities. This event included at least 39 tornadoes, with the most intense tornado, an EF-3, striking Panama City Beach, Florida. The storm’s impact extended up the East Coast, with widespread wind damage affecting multiple states.
- April’s “Southern and Eastern Severe Weather” produced widespread impacts across Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and Florida. This severe weather outbreak, which resulted in USD 2.7 billion in damages, included hail, tornadoes, and high winds that caused significant damage to Gulf Coast communities.
- Hurricane “Debby” was another billion-dollar event in 2024, with damages totaling USD 2.5 billion. Debby, a Category 1 hurricane, made landfall in Florida in August, bringing heavy rain and strong winds. Its remnants traveled up the East Coast, resulting in flash floods and property damage as far north as New York. Debby’s impact was felt across multiple states, underscoring the far-reaching consequences of even lower-category hurricanes.
- In July, a “Central and Eastern Tornado Outbreak and Severe Weather” caused USD 2.4 billion in damages across multiple states, including Illinois and New York. This outbreak produced 79 tornadoes, with the Chicago area experiencing a record 32 tornadoes in a single day.
- The “Texas Hail Storms” in May inflicted USD 2.3 billion in damage, particularly impacting Dallas and Houston, where softball-sized hail damaged buildings, vehicles, and infrastructure. In April, another “Central and Eastern Severe Weather” event caused USD 2.4 billion in damages, marked by 85 tornadoes that impacted the Ohio River Valley.
- A “New Mexico Wildfire” in June resulted in USD 1.7 billion in damages, with the South Fork Fire near Ruidoso destroying over 1 000 structures. Additional severe storms and hail events, such as the “Central and Northeast Severe Weather” in June and the “Colorado Hail Storms” in May, each caused over USD 1 billion in losses across multiple states.
I-26 reopens between North Carolina and Tennessee after Helene | Raleigh News & Observer - Interstate 26 reopened to traffic between North Carolina and Tennessee on Wednesday, as contractors finished a temporary causeway over the Nolichucky River in eastern Tennessee. I-26 has been closed at the state line since floodwaters from the remnants of Hurricane Helene washed out two bridge spans that carried the highway over the river on Sept. 27. The storm also washed out sections of Interstate 40 in the Pigeon River Gorge, severing the main highway link between the two states. The N.C. Department of Transportation has not set a timetable for reopening that stretch of I-40.The collapsed spans of the I-26 bridge were close to the river bank. Rather than replace both spans at once, the Tennessee Department of Transportation created a temporary roadway by filling the area on the westbound side with 33,000 tons of stone and paving over it.“Under normal processes, this work would have taken months,” said TDOT spokesman Mark Nagi. “But because this is such an important connection for East Tennesseans, we were able to think outside the box and get this back open in just a few weeks.”When the eastbound bridge span is rebuilt, traffic will shift and the temporary road will be replaced with a new westbound bridge.In the meantime, I-26 will be reduced to one lane where it crosses the Nolichucky in Erwin, Tennessee, about 40 miles from the state line. Vehicles more than 12 feet long with wide loads will be prohibited, and through trucks will continue to be sent on a detour using Interstates 81 and 77. Interstate 40 remains closed west of Exit 20 in North Carolina. On the Tennessee side, where sections of the eastbound lanes were also washed into the river, I-40 is open to local traffic and deliveries only beyond Exit 440 and closed to all traffic at Exit 451.
Asheville 1 month after Helene faces long recovery — One month after Hurricane Helene wreaked havoc on this corner of western North Carolina, the debris is everywhere. Shade trees are cut into pieces, sitting on lawns, while ruined flooring and sheetrock pile up next to roads. Bridges are cut in half, while homes, vehicles and appliances are strewn around, glued into riverbanks or resting in unexpected spots. The remains of a camper, several feet off the ground, are wedged into the railing of a city playground. A dirty blue sedan rests nearly upright, parked on a wooden fence. If you spend any time on social media, new images or videos with fresh stories of destruction pop up every few days. Since Sept. 27, groups and individuals have worked tirelessly to make sure people have what they need, from food to gloves to generators. It’s a community driven to rebuild, while honoring the dozens of mountain residents who died in floodwaters or landslides. But the recovery will be a massive undertaking, and while there is a course of positive energy running through the region, it’s hard not to be exhausted by living here. Workers have lost wages, and small-business owners their dreams. Some restaurants and retailers are able to open, but with reduced hours and fewer offerings. Children have missed as much as a month of school. The area’s largest district returned to the classroom Friday. Tourism, a critical revenue source for the region, especially in October, has been hobbled. In Helene’s immediate aftermath, officials quickly asked visitors to reconsider fall vacations. Now, many western North Carolina towns are pleading for day-trippers and leaf peepers to return. Individual Asheville businesses are promoting their hours, encouraging patrons. Behind a wire fence, the entrance to the fabled Biltmore Estate looks like it is newly under construction, with fewer trees and a view where a building used to sit. It’s a dusty spot, because there’s been no rain since Helene and its preceding storm dropped more than a dozen inches. Asheville’s decimated water system is slowly coming back online. Most people have water, but it may be brown and suitable only for flushing. Shower trailers are set up around town. Towers of bottled water are in every store, because water can’t be safely used from a tap without boiling it first.
Hurricane Helene aftermath | Death toll tops 100 in North Carolina after Hurricane Helene - -- More than 100 people are confirmed dead a month after Hurricane Helene devastated parts of western North Carolina.According to the North Carolina Department of Health and Human Services (NCDHHS), there are 101 verified storm-related deaths in the state.In Avery County, authorities found the body of a 70-year-old woman who had been missing since the torm hit. Buncombe County reported the most deaths with 43 fatalities.Officials continue to search for other victims of Hurricane Helene. For more information visit the NCDHHS website here.
Historic storm from October 17 to 20 produced severe snowfall in Colorado and record rains in New Mexico - A complex storm brought record-breaking rainfall to New Mexico and severe snowfall to Colorado from October 17 to 20, 2024. According to the Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes (CW3E), the storm was driven by a mid-level shortwave trough that deepened into a cutoff low-pressure system over Arizona, pulling in abundant moisture and creating conditions for intense thunderstorms. Roswell, NM, experienced catastrophic flooding with 146 mm (5.78 inches) of rain in 6 hours, leading to flash floods, 2 fatalities, and numerous rescues. In Colorado, the Uinta and San Juan Mountains saw significant snowfall, contributing to about 15% of the annual peak snowpack. A complex storm brought catastrophic weather to Colorado and New Mexico from October 17 to 20, including record-breaking rainfall and snowfall. Roswell, New Mexico, was struck the worst by rain, accounting for about half of the area’s usual annual precipitation in just 6 hours. This extraordinary rainfall culminated in a new all-time daily record of 146 mm (5.78 inches). Notably, this amount fell during a 6-hour period and exceeded the threshold for a 500-year storm. roswell new mexico rainfall radar and chard october 19 2024 Image credit: CW3E The storm’s effects were felt throughout the region, as the Pecos River at Lake Arthur rose above minor flood stage 6 m (20 feet) on October 20, peaking at 6.1 m (20.34 feet). Further downstream, the Pecos River 10 km (6 miles) northeast of Lakewood, NM, rose above the action stage 4.8 m (16 feet), reaching a peak stage of 5.6 m (18.48 feet). The swift rise in river levels stressed the storm’s destructive power and the danger posed to local communities. In Roswell alone, emergency services reported over 300 rescues and 40 hospitalizations, with two fatalities recorded.
Landslide in Bellingham, Washington closes off Interstate -5 - Record-breaking rains caused a massive landslide in Bellingham, Washington, on Sunday, October 27, 2024, blocking a three-mile stretch of northbound Interstate 5.Record-breaking rainfall triggered a landslide in Bellingham, Washington on Sunday, blocking the Interstate-5 highway with approximately 1 529 m³ (54 000 feet3) of mud.According to the National Weather Service (NWS), 44.5 mm (1.75 inches) of rain fell at Bellingham Airport within two hours on Sunday morning. By 07:30 local time (LT), 52.8 mm (2.08 inches) of rainfall had been recorded, making it the second-wettest day on record after October 16, 2003, when 62.5 mm (2.46 inches) was recorded.Interstate-5 was closed at around 05:45 LT on Sunday, backing up approximately 4.8 km (3 miles) of northbound traffic. A specialty tow truck was called to remove an 18-wheeler trapped in the mud and vegetation covering the highway.
Severe drought across northern Indiana after 3rd driest October in 127 years - The latest version of the U.S. Drought Monitor released on Thursday, October 31, 2024, showed most of northern Indiana is under severe drought conditions. Image credit: U.S. Drought Monitor Almost all (99.87%) of Indiana is experiencing some level of drought (D0-D4), with 68.14% in moderate drought (D1) or higher, and 34.65% in severe drought (D2) or higher — almost all of it in northern Indiana. Comparatively, a year ago, only 63.16% was under drought conditions, with a much smaller portion experiencing severe drought. Three months ago, on July 30, a much larger area (82.08%) was drought-free. Now, only 0.13% remains free from drought. A Red Flag Warning was issued for northern Indiana on Tuesday, October 29, 2024, as gusty winds up to 56 – 64 km/h (35 – 40 mph), the temperature near 26 °C (80 °F), and dry conditions made fires in agricultural land become a common event this week. October 2024 is now officially recorded as the third driest October in 127 years for Fort Wayne. With only 11 mm (0.43 inches) of rain, it marks the driest October since 1964. Only 42.4 mm (1.67 inches) of rain fell in October at the South Bend International Airport, making it the driest month in 9 years and more than 50 mm (2 inches) below the monthly average total.>
Tropical Storm “Trami” hits Vietnam after leaving 126 dead or missing in Philippines - (3 videos) Severe Tropical Storm “Trami” made landfall in Divalacan, Isabela, Philippines on October 23, 2024, causing widespread flooding and landslides in which at least 90 people died and 36 remain missing. Trami reached Vietnam on October 27 and made landfall in Thua Thien-Hue and Da Nang at around 03:00 UTC, with maximum sustained winds of 88 km/h (55 mph). Satellite image of Tropical Storm "Trami" making landfall in Vietnam on October 27, 2024. Severe Tropical Storm “Trami” — known in the Philippines as Kristine — made landfall in Divalacan, Isabela at 16:30 UTC on October 23, 2024, unleashing widespread heavy rains that led to severe flooding and landslides across multiple regions. Heavy rainfall impacted the Visayas, Mindanao, and parts of Luzon, resulting in flash floods that displaced thousands and caused substantial property damage. In Bacolod, over 281 residents from two barangays were evacuated due to flash floods, while Negros Occidental saw the evacuation of 316 families. Catastrophic flooding in Sorsogon, Catanduanes, and Northern Samar compounded the impact, with reports of floodwaters reaching up to 1.8 m (6 feet) in parts of Camarines Sur, forcing mass evacuations. In Naga, Camarines Sur, approximately 700 mm (28 inches) of rain inundated the city, flooding nearly a third of its territory and affecting 70% of its population. Naga River reached critical levels, and in Daet, Camarines Norte, PAGASA recorded a historic 528.5 mm (20.81 inches) of rainfall in 24 hours. Trami was especially devastating in the Bicol Region, which experienced what local authorities described as its worst flooding since 1969. A storm surge hit Lingayen, Pangasinan, submerging six barangays, and several power lines in Luzon and the Visayas were disabled. Strong winds and storm surges along coastal regions destroyed or damaged over 900 homes. Severe flooding and lahar flow from Mayon Volcano rendered roads in Guinobatan, Albay, impassable, while landslides and flash floods led to road closures in Apayao and other areas. In Batangas, over 6 000 people were evacuated as the province experienced rainfall equivalent to two months’ worth of precipitation. Major infrastructural damage, including significant disruptions in telecommunications affecting up to 92% of customers in several provinces, left thousands isolated. According to the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council, 5.8 million people were impacted nationwide, with 560 896 displaced and 9 801 homes damaged. The council reported a death toll of 90, with 71 injured and 36 missing as of October 27. Estimated damage from the storm reached ₱2.26 billion (US$45.83 million), with agriculture and infrastructure bearing significant losses. Rescue operations are ongoing as authorities work to locate missing individuals and provide aid to affected communities. After wreaking havoc across the Philippines, Trami exited into the South China Sea and headed toward Vietnam, prompting extensive preparation efforts nationwide. Ahead of landfall, Deputy Prime Minister Trần Hồng Hà directed government agencies to coordinate closely in their response, deploying 285 480 soldiers and militia personnel alongside 12 503 military vehicles to aid in rescue and relief operations. In anticipation of the storm, the Civil Aviation Authority of Vietnam suspended operations at four key airports along the central coast: Đồng Hới, Phú Bài, Đà Nẵng, and Chu Lai. Coastal activities in Quảng Bình were officially banned starting at midnight on October 27 as a precaution. In total, Quang Nam province evacuated 4 412 households, amounting to 18 306 residents across 10 localities, while Da Nang authorities relocated more than 6 200 individuals from high-risk boarding houses and temporary shelters to safer accommodations. Trami made landfall in Thua Thien-Hue and Da Nang, Vietnam at around 03:00 UTC on October 27, with maximum sustained winds of 88 km/h (55 mph), bringing down trees and producing large waves. Heavy rainfall ranging from 200 mm to 400 mm (8 to 16 inches) was recorded in multiple areas, with Phú Lộc district receiving 268 mm (10.6 inches), Nam Đông 150 mm (5.9 inches), and Bạch Mã Mountain 373.8 mm (14.7 inches) in Huế. Đà Nẵng reported 135 mm (5.3 inches) of rain, and the Chàm Islands off Hội An experienced similar downpours. Authorities anticipate that these intense rains will continue in Huế and Đà Nẵng through October 27, potentially causing temporary flooding in low-lying areas. Local drainage systems are expected to struggle under the volume, raising concerns of localized water accumulation in urban and rural zones alike. In the video below, meteorologist Robert Speta of WestPacWx breaks down the latest tropical developments in the West Pacific and why Trami brought so much destruction to the Philippines.
Dana claims four lives in Bengal and submerges over 113 000 ha (280 000 acres) of crops in Odisha, India - (video) At least four people have been reported dead due to Severe Cyclonic Storm “Dana” in the Indian state of West Bengal while over 113 312 ha (280 000 acres) of crops have been submerged in the state of Odisha as of Saturday, October 26, 2024. Of the 800 000 people who were shifted to shelters in Odisha due to the storm some have been allowed to return home as the weather improved. Preliminary estimates indicate that Severe Cyclonic Storm “Dana” submerged 113 312 ha (280 000 acres) of crops and damaged an additional 71 000 ha (175 000 acres) of crops in Odisha, according to Principal Secretary of Agriculture and Farmer Empowerment, Arabinda Padhi. The state government has ordered a joint assessment of crop loss due to the cyclone by officials from the Agriculture and Revenue Departments, Padhi added. Dana made landfall in Odisha on Friday, October 25, bringing strong winds and heavy torrential rains that led to severe flooding across West Bengal and Odisha. Some people were seen people traversing through waist-deep waters with their belongings on their heads to escape the floods. According to Chief Minister Mohan Charan Majhi, approximately 800 000 people were relocated to shelters due to the cyclone, some of whom were allowed to return home once the weather improved. Over 2 million homes experienced power outages; power supply was restored to approximately 1.4 million homes by Friday evening, October 25, with the remaining expected to receive power on Saturday.
Severe flooding disrupts Mecca and nearby regions, Saudi Arabia - Heavy rainfall since October 27, 2024, has led to severe flooding across Saudi Arabia, with Mecca among the worst affected areas. Streets and pathways in the city, including the Grand Mosque, are heavily flooded, causing significant disruption for residents, pilgrims, and visitors. The Saudi Civil Defence and local authorities actively manage the impact, urging people to stay indoors and avoid flooded areas. . Streets across entire cities have transformed into waterlogged areas, with roads submerged and widespread flooding evident everywhere. Mecca has been particularly impacted, where flash floods have disrupted daily life and inundated streets. Heavy rains have surrounded the Holy Kaaba in the Grand Mosque, drawing significant attention as one of Islam’s most sacred sites experiences unprecedented water levels. The floods occurred as Mecca endured prolonged heavy rains that started two days ago, on October 27, and surpassed the city’s drainage system capacity. The flooding is concentrated in Mecca, but nearby areas in western Saudi Arabia, including sections of Madinah and Jeddah, are also experiencing heavy rainfall and flooding. Severe weather conditions are predicted to remain through Sunday, November 3.
Over 28 000 homes flooded, 58 villages issolated as Tropical Storm “Trami” claims 3 lives in Vietnam - Tropical Storm “Trami”, struck Central Vietnam’s Thua Thien Hue and Da Nang regions on Sunday, October 27, 2024 flooding more than 28 000 homes and isolating 58 villages in Quang Binh Province. With at least three casualties and one person missing, authorities have mobilized rescue teams as rain and high tides continue to impact the area. For Wednesday, October 30, the forecast indicates moderate to heavy rain from Quang Binh to Quang Ngai, with some areas experiencing very heavy rainfall.
- Tropical Storm “Trami” made landfall in Central Vietnam’s Thua Thien Hue and Da Nang regions on Sunday, bringing winds of up to 88 km/h (55 mph).
- The storm caused heavy rain, severe flooding, and widespread damage, resulting in three confirmed fatalities and one person missing.
- More than 28 000 homes in Quang Binh Province were flooded, with the most significant impact in Le Thuy, Quang Ninh, and Dong Hoi City.
- Major highways, including parts of National Highway 1 and an 800 m (2 625 feet) stretch of the Ho Chi Minh Highway, were submerged in floodwaters, with depths reaching up to 80 cm (31.5 inches) in some areas.
Typhoon “Kong-rey” rapidly intensifying as it moves toward Taiwan - Typhoon “Kong-rey” is rapidly intensifying as it moves west-northwest toward Taiwan. The current forecast track calls for landfall on Taiwan’s southeastern coast within the next 48 – 60 hours. However, a shift westward could also lead to a direct landfall on Batanes, Philippines. Kong-rey is forecast to significantly strengthen and potentially reach super typhoon status as it approaches Taiwan. Satellite image of Typhoon "Kong-rey" at 07:30 UTC on October 29, 2024. At 09:00 UTC on October 29, 2024, the center of Typhoon “Kong-rey” was located 1 040 km (646 miles) southeast of Taipei, Taiwan. The system had maximum sustained winds of 148 km/h (92 mph) and was moving west-northwest at 13 km/h (8 mph). Kong-rey is undergoing rapid intensification and is forecast to bring severe conditions to the region. Satellite data shows that Kong-rey’s structure has rapidly improved over the last six hours, with increasingly symmetrical organization and the formation of a large, ragged eye, JTWC forecasters said. Environmental factors are highly conducive to further intensification, including strong radial outflow, low vertical wind shear of 9 – 18 km/h (6 – 11 mph), and sea surface temperatures ranging from 29 to 30 °C (84 to 86 °F). Kong-rey is forecast to maintain its northwestern trajectory, guided by a deep-layered subtropical ridge positioned to the east and northeast. This path is expected to lead Kong-rey to make landfall on Taiwan’s southeastern coast between 48 and 60 hours from now. Following landfall, the typhoon will likely enter the Taiwan Strait, where interaction with Taiwan’s terrain is expected to reduce its strength, potentially downgrading wind speeds to approximately 120 km/h (75 mph).
Kong-rey makes landfall in Taiwan as strongest typhoon since 1996 and first ever after mid-October - - 2 videos -Typhoon “Kong-rey” made landfall along the coast of Taiwan’s Taitung County just after 05:00 UTC on Thursday, October 31, 2024, as the strongest typhoon to hit the island since 1996 and the first to hit the country after mid-October. Kong-rey brought wind gusts exceeding 260 km/h (162 mph) and heavy rainfall that claimed at least one life and knocked power out for over half a million homes. Around 500 flights have been canceled, schools and markets have been shut down, and over 8 000 were forced to evacuate their homes. Satellite image of Typhoon "Kong-rey" making landfall in Taiwan at 05:00 UTC on October 31, 2024. Kong-rey peaked as a Category 4-equivalent super typhoon, with maximum sustained winds of 250 km/h (155 mph) on October 30, one day before making landfall. The typhoon enters history books as the largest typhoon to hit Taiwan since Herb in 1996 and the first in history to make landfall in Taiwan after mid-October. Typhoon “Kong-rey” made landfall on the coast of Taitung County on Thursday at around 05:00 UTC. During landfall, the typhoon had a minimum central pressure of approximately 925 hPa, with maximum sustained winds at the center recorded at around 184 km/h (114 mph) and gusts reaching 230 km/h (145 mph), according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC). Several regions, including the Hsinchu County Mountain Area, Taichung City Mountain Area, Yilan County Mountain Area, Hualien County, and Taitung County, have been placed under an “Extremely Torrential Rain Advisory” starting Thursday afternoon and lasting until Friday morning, November 1. Additional rainfall of over 500 mm (20 inches) is still possible across parts of eastern Taiwan, which could lead to flash flooding and landslides, according to the CWA. Sorry, the video player failed to load.(Error Code: 101102) Warnings for destructive winds over 160 km/h (100 mph) were issued for Taitung County in the east, where the outlying Lanyu Island recorded gusts exceeding 260 km/h (162 mph) before wind barometers there went offline. The typhoon caused power outages affecting roughly half a million homes. At least one person was reported dead after being struck by a falling tree, and at least 73 have been reported injured due to the storm. Around 34 000 soldiers have been put on standby to assist with rescue operations and more than 8 600 have been evacuated from the affected regions so far. According to the Taiwanese Weather Administration, Kong-rey is the largest typhoon to hit the island since Typhoon “Herb” in 1996 and the first to make landfall in Taiwan after mid-October. Nearly 500 flights across the island have been canceled including 300 international flights due to severe weather conditions induced by the typhoon. Financial markets and schools were also shut down before landfall.
Natural disasters in China affected over 84 million people in 2024, resulting in 836 deaths or missing persons - A recent report by China’s Ministry of Emergency Management reveals that natural disasters, primarily floods and extreme weather, hit China hard in the first three quarters of 2024, impacting over 84 million people and incurring an economic loss of 323.2 billion yuan, according to a recent report from the Office of the National Disaster Prevention, Reduction, and Relief Committee. These events affected over 84 million people, resulting in 836 deaths or missing persons and extensive economic and infrastructural damage. Over 3.3 million people were urgently relocated, approximately 50 000 homes collapsed, and another 630 000 sustained damage. Roughly 90.48 million hectares (223.6 million acres) of crops were impacted, causing significant losses. The direct economic toll from these disasters reached 323.2 billion yuan. The severity of impact varied by region, with southern areas experiencing harsher effects than the north. The peak flood season, primarily in July and August, saw an increase in fatalities, missing persons, and economic losses, representing 38 % and 32 % of the year’s total, respectively. Key provinces affected included Hunan, Guangdong, Shaanxi, Sichuan, Fujian, and Hainan. Rainfall was unusually high across China during this period, averaging 633.3 mm (24.9 inches), about 10.5 % above average. Thirty-six regional rainstorms led to sustained and overlapping rainfall in many areas, with some regions exceeding historical rainfall records. These intense rainfall patterns contributed to frequent floods and geological disasters, impacting communities and infrastructure severely. The typhoon season began later than usual but included Super Typhoon “Yagi” (Makar) in early September, the strongest autumn typhoon to make landfall in China since meteorological records began. The typhoon caused widespread damage in South and East China, particularly affecting Hainan, Guangdong, Guangxi, and Yunnan. Approximately 2.73 million people were affected, with four fatalities reported and 459 000 people urgently evacuated. Droughts also impacted both northern and southern regions, notably affecting Sichuan, Chongqing, and the middle reaches of the Yangtze River. In July, as rain belts moved northward, drought conditions eased in parts of North China, Huanghuai, and eastern Northwest China. However, by August, high temperatures and low rainfall renewed droughts in Sichuan, Chongqing, and parts of the Yangtze River basin, affecting 4.76 million people and damaging 335 200 hectares (828 500 acres) of crops. As autumn and winter approach, the risk of forest and grassland fires has risen, with some areas also facing increased threats of wind, hail, floods, and geological disasters.
Dead bodies found after torrential rain brings flash flooding to Spain | Spain Several dead bodies have been recovered by emergency workers after torrential rain caused flash floods in southern and eastern Spain, shutting roads and high-speed train connections. Raging mud-coloured flood waters swept through the town of Letur in the eastern province of Albacete on Tuesday, pushing cars through the streets, images broadcast on Spanish television showed. The leader of the eastern Valencia region told reporters early on Wednesday that several dead bodies had been found in flood-affected areas, without specifying how many. “Dead bodies have been found, but out of respect for the families, we are not going to provide any further data,” Carlos Mazon said. Emergency services workers backed by drones were looking for six people who were missing in the wake of flash floods in the town, the central government’s representative in Castilla-La Mancha told Spanish public television TVE. “The priority is to find these people,” she added. Police in the town of L’Alcúdia in Valencia said they were looking for a truck driver who had been missing since early afternoon. “I am closely following with concern the reports on missing persons and the damage caused by the storm in recent hours,” prime minister Pedro Sánchez wrote on X, urging people to follow the advice of the authorities. “Be very careful and avoid unnecessary trips,” he added. Twelve flights that were due to land at Valencia airport have been diverted to other cities in Spain due to the heavy rain and strong winds, Spanish airport operator Aena said. Another 10 flights that were due to depart or arrive at the airport were cancelled. National rail infrastructure operator ADIF said it had suspended high-speed trains between Madrid and the eastern port of Valencia due to the effects of the storm on main points of the rail network in the Valencia region. A high-speed train with 276 passengers derailed in the southern region of Andalusia, although no one was injured, the regional government said in a statement. Emergency services rescued scores of people in Álora in Andalusia, some by helicopter, after a river overflowed. State weather agency AEMET declared a red alert in the Valencia region and the second-highest level of alert in parts of Andalusia. Several roads were shut in both regions due to flooding. The intense rain has been attributed to a phenomenon known as the gota fría, or “cold drop”, which occurs when cold air moves over the warm waters of the Mediterranean Sea. This creates atmospheric instability, causing warm, saturated air to rise rapidly, leading to the formation of towering cumulonimbus clouds in a matter of hours and dumping heavy rain across eastern parts of Spain.
Catastrophic floods in Valencia, Spain caused by historic rainfall claim over 150 lives, leave dozens missing - BBC news video A powerful storm system hit eastern Spain this week, delivering more than a year’s worth of rain in just one day and causing historic flooding in Valencia on Tuesday, October 29, 2024. The town of Chiva set a new 24-hour rainfall record, reporting 491 mm (19.33 inches) in just eight hours, while several other areas recorded rainfall totals between 100 mm (3.94 inches) and 200 mm (7.87 inches) on the same day.
- Extremely heavy rains caused catastrophic flash floods across Spain’s eastern region of Valencia, beginning on Monday, October 28, 2024.
- Parts of the region saw more than a year’s worth of rain in just one day, with parts of it submerged under 2 m (6.6 feet) of water.
- At least 155 people have died due to the floods, with many still unaccounted for, as of Thursday afternoon (LT), October 31
The storm system that triggered the rainfall originated on the eastern coast of Spain, beginning to impact the region on Monday, October 28, with moisture-laden winds that slammed into the mountains west of Valencia, bringing torrential rains from Monday through Tuesday. As of noon LT on Wednesday, October 30, intense flooding has claimed at least 62 lives, and dozens remain unaccounted for, according to Carlós Mazón, president of the Valencia region. Mazón stated that it is currently impossible to determine the final death toll as the situation is still developing. Unfortunately, the number rose to at least 95 by the end of the day and to over 155 on Thursday. A Red Alert was issued for Valencia and an Orange Alert for the Andalusia region. The Spanish Weather Service (AEMET) reported that the area with the most rainfall in the Valencia region was affected by a weather phenomenon called Depresión Aislada en Niveles Altos (DANA). DANA occurs when a pool of colder air is present higher in the atmosphere. When warm, moisture-laden air moves in below it, the air becomes highly unstable, resulting in deeper storm clouds and more intense rainstorms. As of Wednesday morning, October 30, the automatic station in the Jucar region had recorded 445.4 mm (17.53 inches) of rainfall. This is the highest recorded precipitation in 24 hours in Valencia since the cold drop of September 11, 1996, when 520 mm (20.47 inches) of accumulated rainfall was recorded in Tavernes de la Vall.
What to know about the unprecedented floods that killed more than 200 in Spain (AP) — In a matter of minutes, flash floods caused by heavy downpours in eastern Spain swept away everything in their path. With no time to react, people were trapped in vehicles, homes and businesses. Many died and thousands saw livelihoods shattered.Three days later, authorities have recovered 205 bodies — 202 of them in the eastern Valencia region, two in Castilla La Mancha and one in Andalusia. They continued to search for an unknown number of missing people on Friday.With warnings of more rain on the way, people were cleaning up the thick layers of mud that covered houses, streets and highways full of debris, all while facing power and water cuts and shortages of some basic goods. Inside some of the vehicles that the water washed into piles or crashed into buildings, there were still bodies waiting to be identified. The storms concentrated over the Magro and Turia river basins and, in the Poyo riverbed, produced walls of water that overflowed riverbanks, catching people unaware as they went on with their daily lives, with many coming home from work on Tuesday evening. In the blink of an eye, the muddy water covered roads, railways and entered houses and businesses in villages on the southern outskirts of Valencia city. Drivers had to take shelter on car roofs, while residents tried to take refuge on higher ground. Spain’s national weather service said that in the hard-hit locality of Chiva it rained more in eight hours than it had in the preceding 20 months, calling the deluge “extraordinary.” When the authorities sent the alert to mobile phones warning of the seriousness of the phenomenon and asked them to stay at home, many were already on the road, working or covered in water in low-lying areas or garages, which became death traps. Scientists trying to explain what happened see two likely connections to human-caused climate change. One is that warmer air holds and then dumps more rain. The other is possible changes in the jet stream — the river of air above land that moves weather systems across the globe — that spawn extreme weather.Climate scientists and meteorologists said the immediate cause of the flooding is called a cut-off lower pressure storm system that migrated from an unusually wavy and stalled jet stream. That system simply parked over the region and poured rain. This happens often enough that in Spain they call them DANAs, the Spanish acronym for the system, meteorologists said.And then there is the unusually high temperature of the Mediterranean Sea. It had its warmest surface temperature on record in mid-August, at 28.47 degrees Celsius (83.25 degrees Fahrenheit), said Carola Koenig of the Centre for Flood Risk and Resilience at Brunel University of London.The extreme weather event came after Spain battled with prolonged droughts in 2022 and 2023. Experts say that drought and flood cycles are increasing with climate change.
Cleanup begins in Valencia after Spain’s worst floods in history claim over 200 lives - 3 videos - Cleanup operations have begun across Valencia, which has been declared a disaster zone by Spain’s prime minister after more than a year’s worth of rain in just one day caused the country’s worst floods on record. Since Tuesday, October 29, 2024, the flooding has claimed over 200 lives and left dozens missing. Three days of mourning have been declared nationwide as Valencia faces severe damage with impassable roads, destroyed bridges, and overflowing rivers submerging homes in neck-deep waters. October 31, 2024October 26, 2024 Satellite image of Valencia, Spain before and after the flood event. Image credit: CopernicusEU/Sentinel-2, The Watchers The catastrophic floods were triggered by torrential rainfall from a rare weather event known as Depresión Aislada en Niveles Altos (DANA). This phenomenon occurs when a mass of cold air in the upper atmosphere meets warm, moisture-rich air below, creating highly unstable conditions that lead to intense storm clouds and heavy downpours. By Wednesday morning, October 30, an automatic weather station in the Jucar region recorded 445.4 mm (17.53 inches) of rain in just 24 hours. This deluge marked the highest rainfall in a single day in Valencia since September 11, 1996, when 520 mm (20.47 inches) fell in Tavernes de la Vall. Spanish State Meteorological Agency (AEMET) reported that the town of Chiva experienced 491 mm (19.33 inches) in only eight hours, with 344 mm (13.55 inches) falling over four hours and an astounding 165 mm (6.5 inches) within just one hour on Tuesday. The resulting floods overwhelmed Valencia’s infrastructure, catching residents off guard and forcing thousands to evacuate as rivers overflowed and torrents surged through communities. Bridges collapsed, streets became rivers, and vast areas were cut off as emergency responders struggled to reach stranded residents. Hundreds of vehicles were either submerged or swept away, leaving a wake of debris scattered across the city. As of Friday noon (LT), November 1, the unprecedented flooding had claimed at least 205 lives, with 155 confirmed fatalities in the Valencia region alone, and dozens remain missing. Spanish authorities have said they expect the number of deaths to rise as more bodies could be found inside cars and buildings. At least 1 700 soldiers have been deployed to help emergency workers in search for survivors and bodies.>
A Philippine town in the shadow of a volcano is hit by landslides it never expected (AP) — As a storm pounded his rural home, Raynaldo Dejucos asked his wife and children to stay indoors and keep safe from possible lightning strikes, slippery roads or catching a fever. One thing the 36-year-old didn’t mention was landslides. In the lakeside town of Talisay in the northeastern Philippines, the 40,000 inhabitants have never experienced them in their lifetime. But after leaving home last Thursday to check his fish cages in nearby Lake Taal, an avalanche of mud, boulders and toppled trees cascaded down a steep ridge and buried about a dozen houses, including his. Talisay, about 70 kilometers (43 miles) south of Manila, was one of several towns ravaged by Tropical Storm Trami, the deadliest of 11 storms to hit the Philippines this year. The storm veered toward Vietnam across the South China Sea after leaving at least 152 people dead and missing. More than 5.9 million people were in the storm’s path in northern and central provinces. “My wife was breastfeeding our 2-month-old baby,” Dejucos told The Associated Press on Saturday in a municipal basketball gym, where the five white coffins of his entire family were laid side by side with those of a dozen other victims. “My children were holding each other on the bed when we found them.” “I was calling out the names of my wife and our children repeatedly. Where are you? Where are you?” It’s the latest reality check in the Philippines, long regarded as one of the world’s most disaster-prone countries, in the era of climate change extremes. Located between the Pacific Ocean and South China Sea, the Philippine archipelago is regarded as the doorway for about 20 typhoons and storms that barrel through its 7,600 islands each year, some with devastating force. The nation of more than 110 million people also lies in the Pacific “Ring of Fire,” where many volcanic eruptions and most of the world’s earthquakes occur. A deadly mix of increasingly destructive weather blamed on climate change, and economic desperation that has forced people to live and work in previously off-limits disaster zones, has made many communities across Southeast Asia disasters waiting to happen. Villages have sprouted in landslide-prone mountainsides, on active volcano slopes, on earthquake fault lines and on coastlines often inundated by tidal surges. U.N. Assistant Secretary-General Kamal Kishore, who heads the U.N. disaster-mitigation agency, warned during a recent conference in the Philippines that disasters, including those caused by increasingly ferocious storms, were threatening more people and could derail the region’s economic progress if governments don’t invest more in disaster prevention.
Popocatepetl volcano releases high-level ash emissions over Gulf of Mexico - Popocatépetl volcano in Mexico has shown increased activity over the past few days, with significant ash and SO2 emissions recorded since October 24. On October 26, volcanic ash cloud was estimated at approximately 9.1 km (30 000 feet) above sea level, extending about 833 km (517 miles) northeast of the summit into the Gulf of Mexico. Satellite image of ash rising above Popocatepetl volcano into the Gulf of Mexico at 23:00 UTC on October 25, 2024. From October 16 – 22, the Popocatepetl seismic network recorded 9 – 89 long-period events per day, accompanied by steam-and-gas emissions. The seismic network also recorded daily tremors with periods lasting from 54 minutes to 13 hours and 17 minutes, along with a 35-minute emission episode between October 15 – 16. A significant tremor episode began at 17:47 UTC on October 20, accompanied by a gas-and-ash plume that rose 2 km (6 562 feet) above the crater and incandescent material ejected a short distance from the crater. Ashfall was reported in Ozumba (18 km/11.2 miles W), Tlalmanalco (30 km/18.6 miles NW), and Ecatzingo (15 km/9.3 miles SW) in the state of Mexico; and around 09:58 in Tlalnepantla (80 km/49.7 miles NW), Tlayacapan (40 km/24.9 miles WSW), and Totolapan in the state of Morelos, according to El Centro Nacional de Comunicación y Operación de Protección Civil (CENACOM). Volcanic activity at the volcano increased further on October 22, with continuous ash emissions observed at 07:06 UTC, rising to 6.1 km (20 000 feet) a.s.l. By 00:06 UTC on October 23, volcanic ash was reported reaching 6.7 km (22 000 feet) a.s.l. and extending 130 km (80 miles) northwest of the summit. Mexico’s National Center for Disaster Prevention (CENAPRED) reported 22 exhalations and 1 007 minutes of tremor at the volcano in 24 hours to 17:00 UTC on October 23. 45 exhalations accompanied by water vapor, volcanic gasses, and ash were detected in 24 hours to 17:00 UTC on October 24. Additionally, 908 minutes of high-frequency and low-amplitude tremor were recorded.
Mount Marapi blankets parts of West Sumatra in ash, Indonesia - Mount Marapi experienced four explosions on October 27, 2024, producing thick ash columns up to 4 km (13 000 feet) a.s.l. that drifted westward over populated areas, blanketing them in ash. This eruption follows increased seismic activity since October 7, indicating rising magma levels. Local authorities, including the Center for Volcanology and Geological Hazard Mitigation (PVMBG), have implemented a 3 km (2 miles) exclusion zone to ensure the safety of residents and climbers. Volcanic activity at Mount Marapi in West Sumatra increased on Sunday, October 27, beginning with an ash plume eruption at 07:00 local time. This initial event recorded a maximum amplitude of 27 mm (1.06 inches) on seismographs, accompanied by an ash column reaching a considerable height. Following this, subsequent eruptions showed slightly lower amplitudes but retained significant ash emissions. At 07:36 local time, a second eruption occurred, producing an ash column of approximately 800 m (2 620 feet) above the peak. This event reached a maximum amplitude of 3.6 mm (0.14 inch) and lasted about one minute and 10 seconds. Later, at 09:56 LT, a third eruption generated an ash column rising up to 2 000 m (6 561 feet) in the direction of the northwest. It was recorded with a maximum amplitude of 1.8 mm (0.07 inch) and lasted for 59 seconds. The day’s fourth eruption took place at 16:01 LT, sending an ash column up to 800 m (2 624 feet). It had a maximum amplitude of 1.6 mm (0.06 inch) and lasted around one minute and two seconds. “Ash column of about 1 000 m (3 280 feet) observed from the summit. Meanwhile, if measured from sea level, the height of the ash column reaches 3 891 m (12 765 feet),” said Aziz Yuliawan, an officer at the Marapi Volcano Monitoring Post.
Asteroid 2023 UZ6 flew past Earth at just 0.04 LD - A newly-discovered asteroid designated 2024 UZ6 flew past Earth at just 0.046 LD / 0.00012 AU (17 524 km / 10 889 miles) at 07:24 UTC on October 27, 2024. This is the 101st asteroid to fly past Earth within 1 lunar distance (<1 LD) since the start of the year and the 26th so far this month, making October the month with the most <1 LD asteroid flybys since at least 2020. This is also the closest <1 LD asteroid flyby of the month and the third closest of the year, after 2024 LH1 at 0.00005 on June 6 and 2024 HA at 0.00010 AU on April 16. All of them are small asteroids with diameters between 1.2 and 3.1 m (3.9 – 10.2 feet). Asteroid 2023 UZ6 was first observed at Catalina Sky Survey, Arizona on October 28 — one day after it made its close approach to our planet. The object belongs to the Apollo group of asteroids and has an estimated diameter between 1.6 and 3.7 m (5.2 – 12.1 feet). Image credit: CNEOS
Asteroid 2024 UG9 flew past Earth at just 0.02 LD - second closest of the year – A newly discovered asteroid designated 2024 UG9 flew past Earth at a distance of 0.021 LD / 0.00006 AU (8 850 km / 5 499 miles) from the center of our planet at 12:42 UTC on October 30, 2024. This places it about 2 479 km (1 540 miles) from Earth’s surface. This is the 105th known asteroid to fly past Earth within 1 lunar distance (<1 LD) since the start of the year and the 30th so far this month, making October the month with the most <1 LD asteroid flybys since at least 2020. This is also the closest <1 LD asteroid flyby of the month and the second closest of the year, after 2024 LH1 at 0.00005 on June 6. 2024 UG9 was first observed at Mt. Lemmon Survey, Arizona at 07:02 UTC — 5 hours and 39 minutes before its closest approach to Earth. The object belongs to the Apollo group of asteroids and has a diameter between 0.82 and 1.8 m (2.7 – 5.9 feet).
Over 100 researchers call for pause in Musk Starlink launches -Researchers are urging the federal government to pause further low-orbit internet satellite launches until a comprehensive review is conducted to determine the potential environmental damage that could result. In a letter to Julie Kearney, chief of the Federal Communications Commission (FCC) Space Bureau, more than 100 researchers expressed concern about the rapid development of low-orbit satellites and urged international cooperation to determine the best path forward. “The environmental harms of launching and burning up so many satellites aren’t clear. That’s because the federal government hasn’t conducted an environmental review to understand the impacts. What we do know is that more satellites and more launches lead to more damaging gasses and metals in our atmosphere,” the researchers wrote in the letter. “We shouldn’t rush forward with launching satellites at this scale without making sure the benefits justify the potential consequences of these new mega-constellations being launched, and then re-entering our atmosphere to burn up and or create debris,” they continued. “This is a new frontier, and we should save ourselves a lot of trouble by making sure we move forward in a way that doesn’t cause major problems for our future.” The researchers noted that, in just more than five years, tech billionaire Elon Musk’s Starlink service has launched more than 6,000 units that now make up 60 percent of all satellites. “The new space race took off faster than governments were able to act,” they wrote, adding that regulatory agencies now lack the policies to make fair assessments about “the total effects of all proposed mega constellations.” They criticized the FCC for granting licenses on a “first-come, first-served basis,” noting orbital space and the broadcast spectrum are not limitless and they require an “unprecedented system of cooperation” with international regulators “to share the commons of our final frontier.” “Until extensive coordination is in place, we shouldn’t let the commercial interests first to launch determine the rules,” they wrote. The researchers also encouraged the FCC to end the “categorical exclusion of satellites” from environmental review, writing, “that launching 30,000 to 500,000 satellites into low earth orbit doesn’t even warrant an environmental review offends common sense.” The Hill has reached out to Starlink and the FCC for comment.
Major, long-duration X1.8 solar flare erupts from Region 3872 - (video) A major, long-duration solar flare measuring X1.8 erupted from Active Region 3872 at 07:19 UTC on October 26, 2024. The event started at 05:57 and ended at 07:56 UTC. A large coronal mass ejection (CME) was produced during the event. A Type IV and Type II (estimated velocity 486 km/s) radio emissions were registered at 06:29 UTC, indicating a strong CME was produced. In addition, a 10cm Radio Burst lasting 4 minutes and with peak flux of 270 sfu was registered from 06:18 to 06:23 UTC. This burst indicates that the electromagnetic burst associated with a solar flare at the 10cm wavelength was double or greater than the initial 10cm radio background. This can be indicative of significant radio noise in association with a solar flare. This noise is generally short-lived but can cause interference for sensitive receivers including radar, GPS, and satellite communications. Most of the CME is expected to be directed away from Earth, but a part of it may be coming our way. Radio frequencies were forecast to be most degraded over the Indian Ocean at the time of the flare. Sunspots on October 26, 2024. Credit: NASA SDO/HMI This is the second X-class solar flare since X3.3 at 03:57 UTC on October 24 from Region 3869. Associated with this event were Type II (estimated velocity 601 km/s), Type IV, and Tenflare (5 900 sfu) radio emissions. Also associated with this large flare was an asymmetric, halo CME that was first visible off the SE limb in SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery at 03:48 UTC on October 24. Due to the location of the source region, the bulk of the X3.3 CME is expected to be to the south and east of Earth. However, some flanking influence is likely according to modeling efforts. Analysis of several model outputs suggests a possible glancing blow at Earth early to mid-day on April 26.
Solar radiation storm reaches S2 - Moderate levels following X1.8 flare on October 26 - (video) A solar radiation storm reached S2 – Moderate levels on October 27, 2024, following a powerful X1.8 flare on October 26. Elevated levels of high-energy protons are expected to persist, potentially impacting high-altitude flights, satellite operations, and polar radio communications. X1.8 solar flare october 26 2024 Proton flux started sharply rising from 16:00 to 17:00 UTC on October 26 and exceeded the alert threshold level for S1 – Minor solar radiation storm by 19:10 UTC, possibly following the shock arrival from the long-duration X1.8 solar flare on October 26. Flux values continued rising and reached the S2 – Moderate solar radiation storm threshold at around 08:30 UTC on October 27. Following the sharp increase that led to the S2 – Moderate solar radiation storm threshold, elevated levels of both high-energy protons and electrons are forecasted to persist in the coming days. S2 – Moderate solar radiation storms can lead to several impacts, especially for high-altitude and polar-latitude systems. Passengers and crew on high-flying aircraft, particularly on polar routes, may experience elevated radiation exposure, posing potential health considerations for frequent travelers or sensitive groups. Satellite operations can face occasional single-event upsets, where high-energy particles disrupt electronic components, forcing resets or temporary adjustments by operators. Additionally, HF radio communications can suffer minor disruptions over polar regions due to ionospheric disturbances, which may also affect GPS signal accuracy and navigation reliability in these areas. While S2 storms are relatively common, occurring about 25 times per solar cycle, these effects are generally manageable with appropriate precautions and operational responses. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain at moderate to high levels through October 29. This increase in high-energy electron levels is primarily due to the effects of the recent coronal mass ejection (CME) and an incoming coronal hole high-speed stream (CH HSS). Elevated electron flux can result in surface charging on satellites, increasing the risk of operational disruptions for spacecraft in geostationary and medium Earth orbits. Additionally, the 10 MeV proton flux is expected to stay above 10 pfu through early October 27, with a continued likelihood of exceeding threshold values over October 28 and 29. This sustained proton activity suggests that minor solar radiation storm conditions could linger, potentially maintaining S1 to S2-level impacts through the period. This would mean intermittent disruptions to HF radio signals, particularly over polar regions, as well as minor GPS signal interference at high latitudes. The long-duration X1.8 solar flare on October 26 was accompanied by Type II radio sweeps at an estimated speed of 486 km/s, Type IV radio sweeps, and a 4 200 sfu Tenflare, indicating significant energy release and plasma movement in the solar atmosphere. CME associated with this event was primarily directed southeast. Although the CME appeared as an asymmetric, full-halo in coronagraph imagery, the initial analysis suggested that most of its material had a trajectory southward and behind the Sun-Earth line. However, CME models indicated that Earth could experience a glancing blow from this event, expected to arrive early on October 28.
X2.0 solar flare erupts from Region 3878, solar radiation storm enters 7th day - The Watchers video A major solar flare registered as X2.0 erupted from Active Region 3878 at 21:20 UTC on October 31, 2024. The event started at 21:12 and ended at 21:27 UTC. The flare was immediately followed by a long-duration M9.5 flare. Meanwhile, the solar radiation storm that started on October 26 entered the 7th day and continues at S1 – Minor levels. There were no radio signatures that would suggest a coronal mass ejection (CME) was produced during X2.0 solar flare on October 31. The event was associated with 10cm Radio Burst (tenflare) lasting 14 minutes and with a peak flux of 910 sfu. This indicates that the electromagnetic burst associated with a solar flare at the 10cm wavelength was double or greater than the initial 10cm radio background. It can indicate significant radio noise associated with a solar flare. This noise is generally short-lived but can cause interference for sensitive receivers including radar, GPS, and satellite communications. Radio signatures were forecast to be most degraded over the Pacific Ocean at the time of the flare. While CME was probably not produced by this event, Region 3878 has a ‘beta-gamma-delta’ magnetic configuration and is capable of producing more strong to major solar flares. It’s moving toward the center of the disk which means Earth-directed CMEs from this region are possible in the days ahead. This is the 9th X-class solar flare during the month of October. Solar Cycle 25, which began in December 2019, has reached its maximum phase, known as solar maximum. This period is characterized by heightened solar activity, including increased sunspot numbers and solar flares. The duration of solar maximum varies, typically lasting between several months to a few years.
President Biden will not attend UN climate summit in Azerbaijan --President Biden will not attend the United Nations’s climate summit in Azerbaijan this year, his second consecutive year skipping the event after attending the first two years of his presidency. A White House official confirmed to The Hill that the president will not be present at the COP29 summit in Baku, set to run from Nov. 11-22. Biden also did not attend 2023’s COP28 summit in Dubai, United Arab Emirates, with Vice President Harris attending in his place. The White House did not clarify whether Harris would attend this year but should she prevail in the presidential election, transition planning will likely be underway. An official State Department list of the U.S. delegation for this year’s conference, released Thursday, names senior White House climate adviser John Podesta as the leader of the delegation. Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack, Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm, White House Council on Environmental Quality Chair Brenda Mallory and Biden climate adviser Ali Zaidi are also listed as attendees. The news means Biden will not be physically present to close out a presidency where he has sought to assure other nations of the U.S.’s commitment to climate action after then President Trump withdrew from the Paris Climate Agreement. Biden rejoined the international compact shortly after taking office. Biden is not the only world leader planning to sit out the summit this year. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Chinese President Xi Jinping are also expected to skip the conference. China, India and the U.S. comprise the three biggest national sources of planet-warming greenhouse gas emissions. Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, who attended the COP28 Dubai summit and emphasized the South American nation’s commitment to climate action, canceled his own plans to attend this year’s conference on the advice of his doctors following a head injury in October. An official with Harris’ office told The Hill it had “no travel plans to preview” for the vice president.
Billions in US funding boosts lithium mining, stressing water supplies -Add lithium to water in a chemistry lab, and you’ll get an incendiary reaction. The same might be said of opening new lithium mines: The prospect can spark conflicts when it comes to water.Mining companies and the U.S. government are investing in increased extraction for lithium, which is a critical component in some renewable energy technology, especially electric vehicle batteries and large grid-scale storage batteries.The IRA injected the Department of Energy (DOE) Loan Programs Office with about $11.7 billion to support new loans for energy projects, including mines for needed metals like lithium. This builds on earlier Bipartisan Infrastructure Law (BIL) grants for battery material supply chains. The IRA also offers tax credits of up to $7,500 on eligible electric vehicles, creating additional demand for lithium by the auto industry.With funding from the IRA, DOE and BIL, lithium miners have gained new financial vigor and governmental votes of confidence. Yet some worry what impact this newfound funding will have on the environment. Domestic mining is still primarily governed by the outdated 1872 Mining Law, which didn’t enshrine environmental protections, but “declared all valuable mineral deposits in land belonging to the United States to be free and open to exploration and purchase,” according to the Bureau of Land Management (BLM) website.Through the National Environmental Policy Act, environmental impact statements are required ahead of major projects like mines, although some statements have been criticized as rushed or insufficient. But ultimately, it’s up to companies to choose and monitor their own environmental protections and community agreements, even if they’re collecting federal subsidies.Lithium mining poses a range of risks to biodiversity andgroundwater supplies, depending on the methods used. There are three main types of lithium extraction: brine evaporation, hard rock mining and clay mining.In brine evaporation, groundwater is first pumped to the surface. There, 90% of it is evaporated away to concentrate the lithium brine, with additional freshwater needed to complete extraction.Hard rock and clay mining often begin with “dewatering,” or removing groundwater to reach the ore, in addition to needing more water to process the ore. These methods also require chemicals such as sulfuric acid for processing, which in cobalt and copper mining has led to contamination of local water systems. Concerned about the risks, local residents and environmentalists have resisted new mines with tactics from protests to litigation — but a government-supported lithium boom appears to be underway regardless. A Center for Biological Diversity map lists more than 125 lithium extraction projects in the western U.S. alone. Seven are inactive, and the majority are in various stages from exploration to development. Most of the proposed mines are in Nevada, predicted as a future “Silicon Valley of lithium.”Albemarle’s Silver Peak mine in Nevada, a brine evaporation mine that has come under scrutiny for depleting groundwater aquifers in an increasingly-arid region, is the only currently active U.S. lithium mine. That’s likely to soon change, since the IRA has incentivized metal and mineral extraction in the United States and in countries with a U.S. free trade agreement.Through its loan support and EV sales incentives, the IRA has made lithium mines more profitable, and less financially risky for companies opening new ones. Several lithium companies, including ioneer, Allkem and Albemarle, lobbied for the IRA’s passage or for provisions within it. A 2023 IRA impact report from S&P Global noted “aggressive mine capacity additions” for lithium planned in countries including the United States, Chile and Australia.Domestically, most lithium deposits are in the West, where water supplies are already stressed. Yet new mines pose risks to the region’s biodiversity. In a lawsuit against a Rover Metals exploration project, the Center for Biological Diversity and Amargosa Conservancy alleged that even exploratory drilling near springs in the Ash Meadows National Wildlife Refuge in Nevada would threaten endangered and endemic species. Active mines can have even bigger impacts.“We need lithium as a part of our transition off of fossil fuels, but it can’t come at the expense of biodiversity or our most precious protected areas,” Patrick Donnelly of the Center for Biological Diversity, said in announcing the lawsuit. “Some places have to be off-limits to resource extraction, and Ash Meadows National Wildlife Refuge is at the top of the list.”
Mining rush brings hope, dread to Upper Peninsula, amid historic energy shift | Bridge Michigan
- The transition to electric energy requires lots of nickel and copper, which are abundant in the western Upper Peninsula
- Prospectors seek to expand mining in the area that has struggled since the industry went bust decades ago
- Foes fear history is repeating itself and worry about environmental waste, harms to tourism
The promise of riches is luring another rush of prospectors to remote corners of the Upper Peninsula, sending heavy machinery into the deep woods. Crews with the Canadian Talon Metals Corp. have worked around-the-clock since June in the forests between Marqeutte and the Keweenaw Peninsula, using a diamond drill to unearth billion-year-old rock cores up from hundreds and thousands of feet deep. Last week, they announced a major discovery: Their very first bore hole revealed the telltale shimmer of copper and nickel sulfide ore — rocks that could potentially be mined, crushed and purified to make electric vehicle batteries, wind turbines and other technologies of the energy transition.“It’s fantastic,” “we’re hoping it’s just the tip of the iceberg.”They’re not alone. Westward near the Porcupine Mountains, one company hopes to dig a new mine and revive an old one that’s been closed for three decades. Another firm inked a deal last year to explore for nickel, copper and other metals on 260 square miles in the western UP. And across more than 1,700 square miles — an area bigger than Macomb, Wayne and Monroe counties combined — a former timber investment company has sold off its forests to focus on the minerals business.For better or worse, the mining rush is back in the western Upper Peninsula. Michigan was once home to 200 mines and produced 95% of the copper used in the United States. Now, only two mines remain in the UP, leaving town after town with shrinking populations no longer robust enough to keep schools, stores and hospitals going. The latest interest comes from the global push to “electrify everything” to fight climate change, a transition that will require lots of copper and nickel for EV batteries and other equipment. Both minerals are abundant in the ancient magma deposits that helped form the western UP. Demand is expected to double in the next 10 to 15 years.
AI boom thrusts Europe between power-hungry data centers, environmental goals - The boom in artificial intelligence is ushering in an environmentally conscious shift in how data centers operate, as European developers face pressure to lower the water temperatures of their energy-hungry facilities to accommodate the higher-powered chips of firms such as tech giant Nvidia. AI is estimated to drive a 160% growth in demand for data centers by 2030, research from Goldman Sachs shows — an increase that could come at a cost to Europe's decarbonization goals, as the specialized chips used by AI firms are expected to hike the energy use of the data centers that deploy them. High-powered chips — also known as graphics processing units, or GPUs — are essential for training and deploying large language models, which are a type of AI. These GPUs need high density computing power and produce more heat, which ultimately requires colder water to support reliable cooling of the chips.AI can consume 120 kilowatts of energy in just one square meter of a data center, which is equivalent to the power consumption and heat dissipation of around 15 to 25 houses, according to Andrey Korolenko, chief product and infrastructure officer at Nebius, who referred specifically to the deployment of Nvidia's Blackwell GB200 chip. "This is extremely dense, and from the cooling standpoint of view you need different solutions," he said. Michael Winterson, chair of the European Data Center Association (EUDCA), warned that lowering water temperatures will eventually "fundamentally drive us back to an unsustainable situation that we were in 25 years ago." "The problem we've got with the chipmakers is [that] AI is now a space race run by the American market where land rights, energy access and sustainability are relatively low on the pecking order, and where market domination is key," Winterson told CNBC.Major equipment suppliers in Europe say that U.S. chip designers are calling on them to lower their water temperatures to accommodate the hotter AI chips, according to Herbert Radlinger, managing director at NDC-GARBE."This is shocking news, because originally everybody from the engineering side expected to go for liquid cooling to run higher temperatures," he told CNBC, referring to the technology of liquid cooling, which is said to be more efficient than the more traditional method of air cooling. Energy efficiency is high on the European Commission's agenda, as it seeks to reach its goal of reducing energy consumption by 11.7% by 2030. The EU predicted in 2018 that energy consumption of data centers could rise 28% by 2030, but the advent of AI is expected to boost that number two or threefold in some countries.Winterson said that lowering water temperatures is "fundamentally incompatible" with the EU's recently launched Energy Efficiency Directive, which established a dedicated data base for data centers of a certain size to publicly report on their power consumption. The EUDCA has has been lobbying Brussels to consider these sustainability concerns.Energy management firm Schneider Electric engages often with the EU on the topic. Many of the recent discussions have focused on different ways to source "prime power" for AI data centers and for the potential for more collaboration with utilities, said Steven Carlini, chief advocate of AI and data centers and vice president at Schneider Electric.European Commission energy officials have also had exchanges with Nvidia to discuss energy consumption and the use of data centers with regard to the effectiveness of power use and that of chipsets.CNBC has approached Nvidia and the Commission for comment. "Cooling is the second-largest consumer of energy in the data center after the IT load," Carlini told CNBC in emailed comments. "The energy use will rise but the PUE (Power Usage Effectiveness) may not rise with lower water temperatures despite the chillers having to work harder." Schneider Electric's customers that are deploying Nvidia's Blackwell GB200 super chip are asking for water temperatures of 20-24 degrees Celsius or between 68 and 75 degrees Fahrenheit, Carlini said. He added that this compares to temperatures of around 32 degrees Celsius with liquid cooling, or of around 30 degrees Celsius that Meta has suggested for the water it supplies to the hardware.
Gavin Newsom executive order targets Californians' high electricity bills -California Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) on Wednesday signed an executive order that aims to provide residents with some respite amid rising electricity prices.That anticipated relief would be achieved through trimming down several state programs that could be inflating utility bills, while also assessing wildfire mitigation expenses, according to the governor’s office. “California’s over four decades of work to advance appliance and building energy efficiency standards has kept electric bills lower on average in California than many other states,” Newsom wrote in the order. “But Californians have seen their electric bills rise in recent years, outpacing the rate of inflation.”Among the key provisions of the executive order was a request for the California Public Utilities Commission (CPUC) to identify underperforming or underutilized programs whose costs to ratepayers might not be justified.The order asked that the CPUC return any unused energy program funds back to private utility customers, in the form of credits on their bills.Newsom also directed the California Air Resources Board to work with the CPUC to identify ways to maximize the California Climate Credit — an initiative that applies credits to residents’ electricity and gas bills twice a year through the state’s cap-and-trade program, which requires large polluters to purchase greenhouse gas allowances and offsets. Credits distributed via this initiative have amounted to more than $12 billion in savings since 2014, according to the order.In an effort to reduce electricity costs long term, the order instructed both the CPUC and the California Energy Commission to assess ratepayer supported programs, while tasking the former with pursuing any relevant federal funding.As far as wildfire mitigation investments are concerned, the governor directed the Office of Energy Infrastructure Safety and the CPUC to evaluate today’s oversight practices for utility wildfire safety and ensure that these programs are cost-effective.“We’re taking action to address rising electricity costs and save consumers money on their bills,” Newsom said in a statement accompanying the order.“California is proving that we can address affordability concerns as we continue our world-leading efforts to combat the climate crisis,” the governor added.
AEP Ohio reaches agreement with stakeholders on data center interconnection rules | Utility Dive -AEP Ohio and key stakeholders asked the Public Utilities Commission of Ohio on Wednesday to approve a settlement agreement that sets terms and conditions for connecting data centers to the grid. Parties to the agreement include PUC staff, the Ohio Consumers’ Counsel, the Ohio Energy Group, Ohio Partners for Affordable Energy and Walmart. Earlier this month, Amazon, Google, Microsoft and Meta joined Constellation Energy and other groups in proposing their own set of rates for data centers and other “electricity-intensive” customers for PUCO consideration.“In a landmark agreement, OCC, AEP, the PUCO staff and other consumers united to find a way to protect Ohio utility consumers from footing the bill for data center expansion in central Ohio,” said Maureen Willis, director of the OCC, which represents Ohio ratepayers. “Now it’s up to the five PUCO commissioners to do their part by adopting this broadly-supported, pro-consumer agreement.”The “consumer protective” settlement agreement filed by AEP Ohio for PUC approval closely resembles the utility’s initial filing in May, according to the OCC.If the agreement is approved by the PUC, new data centers larger than 25 MW would have to pay for at least 85% of the energy they expect to need each month, even if they use less, to cover the cost of infrastructure needed to bring electricity to the facilities, AEP Ohio said in a news release.The agreement also requires data centers to show they are financially viable and able to meet certain requirements, as well as to pay an exit fee if their project is canceled or they can’t meet obligations set in their electric service agreement contracts, AEP Ohio said. The requirements would be in place for up to 12 years, including a 4-year ramp-up period.The agreement counters the “pro-industry, anti-consumer” agreement offered by the data center coalition, the OCC said in a statement. That agreement shortens contractual commitments required of data centers, reduces exit fees and reduces demand charges that data centers would pay, according to the ratepayer advocate’s office.The Data Center Coalition, a party to the earlier settlement pact, said the AEP Ohio-filed agreement could dampen investment in Ohio by artificially inflating costs on a targeted subset of customers, while imposing red tape on behind-the-meter energy generation at data centers.“Rather than joining a reasonable path forward, AEP Ohio has filed a competing stipulation in which they continue to propose a tariff that targets data centers for disparate treatment and flatly reject opportunities to explore new cost-savings measures, such as grid-enhancing technologies,” DCC President Josh Levi said in an email Thursday.No U.S. utility imposes terms on data centers like the ones found in the AEP Ohio agreement, according to Levi.The debate at the Ohio PUC comes as U.S. utilities are facing an increasing number of data center interconnection requests that are also growing in size.About 60% of utilities responding to a survey by the Electric Power Research Institute said they have service requests from data centers with loads bigger than 500 MW and 48% have received requests for facilities with loads larger than 1,000 MW. Almost half of the 25 utilities surveyed have data center requests that exceed 50% of their system peak demand, according to a report on the survey EPRI released last month.EPRI found that 75% of the utilities responding to the survey handle data center service requests using their standard large load service request process. In Indiana, the Citizens Action Coalition earlier this month urged state lawmakers to enact a data center moratorium to give the state time to set policies that would protect the state’s consumers from data center utility-related costs and other issues. Indiana Michigan Power, an AEP utility, has proposed a data center tariff for Indiana. The utility estimates that hyperscaler data centers will use 35 million MWh annually by 2030, compared with current residential use of 31.9 million MWh a year, according to CAC, a consumer and environmental group that largely supports the utility’s proposed tariff.
AES Ohio wants raise electric distribution rates by 14% -The Dayton-area electric utility is asking state regulators to allow higher distribution rates. AES Ohio, the former Dayton Power & Light, filed notices Wednesday with the Public Utility Commission of Ohio (also known as the PUCO) alerting that office of its intent to file an application to increase its rates for electric distribution service. In a sample of a letter the electric utility sent or is sending to local governments, the company said it would file by Nov. 29 to ask for a rate increase that would raise monthly electric bills by $21.75, a more than 14% increase for customers using a certain amount of electricity. “AES Ohio will ask the PUCO to approve rates that include these investments and align the value of electric distribution service with its costs,” the company says in the sample letter filed with the PUCO. “If the PUCO approves this request, then the monthly bill for a typical residential customer using 1,000 kWh (kilowatt hours) would increase by $21.75, a 14.2% increase to the total bill for Standard Service Offer customers.” Residential customers who have AES Ohio as their supplier are “standard service offer” customers. If you have another electric service supplier, that category doesn’t apply to you. The PUCO’s review process includes a “thorough and independent audit of AES Ohio’s costs, public hearings, and opportunities for customer comment,” the utility also said in its letter. Dayton utility customers may be in for something of a double whammy in terms of higher bills in coming months. The AES Ohio notice comes the same week that natural gas provider CenterPoint Energy filed with the PUCO for its own rate increase proposal that, if approved, would mean an increase of approximately $23 per month for the “average residential customer.” AES Ohio serves more than 20 counties in Western Ohio.
Another private equity group is buying an Ohio coal plant. Will anything change? • Another private equity group is in the process of buying a coal-fired generation plant along the Ohio River that is estimated to be the nation’s most deadly via pollution.The prospective owners boast of a focus on helping fossil fuel plants make the transition to sustainability. But it’s unclear that anything will change at the 50-year-old facility.Presently owned by Blackstone and ArcLight Capital Partners, the 2,600 megawatt Gavin plant in Cheshire is in the process of being purchased by two other private equity firms, Energy Capital Partners and Javelin. Because the plant is estimated to produce the deadliest emissions in the United States — and because it has a $40 million liability to clean up toxic coal ash — watchdogs are concerned about ongoing health threats. They’re also worried that taxpayers will have to pay for any cleanup.Private equity groups have long been accused of the most ruthless moneymaking. They often buy assets in deals that quickly recoup their investments, then frequently sell off the most valuable parts of an enterprise, and then walk away either by selling or declaring bankruptcy. Whether people needlessly lose jobs or consumers lose choices is not a consideration, critics say.Such firms are heavily invested in fossil fuel-powered electricity generation. Earlier this month, Private Equity Climate Risks — a consortium of clean-energy advocates — published a scorecard. It said the annual emissions of private-equity owned fossil fuel plants exceed those of the global airline industry and is on a scale with the catastrophicCanadian wildfires of 2023.Ohio’s Gavin Plant is a particular polluter. A 2023 analysis by the Sierra Club looked at coal-plant emissions and weather patterns. It concluded that because it sends a plume of toxins over populous areas in the eastern United States, the Gavin plant is the deadliest in the country, killing an estimated 244 people a year.Blackstone, one of its current owners, has ties to the Republican presidential ticket. CEO Stephen Schwarzman in May endorsed former President Donald Trump, and it’s the 10th-largest contributor to Ohio Sen. J.D. Vance’s PAC, Working for Ohio, according to OpenSecrets.com.Blackstone in August disputed critics’ assertions that it was seeking political influence to avoid compensating for the harms caused by the plant. To the contrary, it said it had spent $1 billion on air quality improvements.But now that it appears poised to be sold to yet another private-equity group, critics continue to worry that the Gavin Plant will keep on spewing toxins and that its $40 million coal-ash problem will go unaddressed. “I think we’ve seen over the past several years how unpopular and deadly coal is,” said Alissa Jean Schafer, climate director of the Private Equity Stakeholder Project, a group critical of private equity practices. “You’ve certainly had a front-row seat to that in Ohio. Increasingly, coal is being seen as, A) a really bad investment, and B) a poisonous form of energy.”
NextEra evaluating whether it can restart Iowa's only nuclear power plant - Radio Iowa --NextEra Energy’s chief executive says the company is exploring whether it could reopen the nuclear power plant in eastern Iowa that was closed down four years ago. “We are currently evaluating the recommissioning of our Duane Arnold plant in Iowa,” NextEra Energy chairman and CEO John Ketchum said during a conference call with investors on Wednesday. Ketchum said nuclear power will play a role in meeting the country’s increasing demand for energy, but there are only 20 so-called “merchant” nuclear plants that generate power for sale on the open market — and only two of them are west of the Mississippi River. “Nuclear plants across the country are already serving existing demand,” he said, “so even if they are contracted by specific customers, new resources need to be built to meet new demand.” Most of the country’s nuclear reactors were built between 1970 and 1990. Small modular reactors called SMRs are operating in China and Russia, but there are none in the U.S. “Alternatives such as new utility-scale nuclear and SMRs are unproven, expensive and, again, not expected to be commercially viable at scale until the latter part of the next decade,” Ketchum said. NextEra acquired the Duane Arnold Energy Center near Palo in 2005. The plant was decommissioned in 2020 after 45 years of operation. NextEra began installing solar panels on the property earlier this year. Ketchum said expanding the capacity of solar and wind generation is critical to ensuring power bills don’t skyrocket due to scarce electricity supply. “Today, there are forecasts for an approximate 6x increase in power demand growth in the next 20 years versus the prior 20,” Ketchum says. “That significant projected shift in fundamental demand is across industries, driven in large part by 7 by 24 loads from data centers.” Google, Facebook and Microsoft all operate data centers in Iowa.
Massive fire closes Ohio River bridge near Cincinnati and damages its steel structure (AP) — A massive fire underneath a bridge spanning the Ohio River closed a heavily traveled route between Cincinnati and northern Kentucky on Friday and damaged part of the steel structure. No injuries were reported. The fire broke out overnight near a playground under the bridge, shutting down Interstate 471, according to the Cincinnati Fire Department. Video showed flames soaring more than 40 feet into the air and igniting a short section of the bridge, known for its yellow arches, near downtown Cincinnati. Chunks of concrete fell from the bridge and the fire warped a few of its steel beams, fire crews reported. The heaviest damage was on the bridge’s southbound lanes leading to Kentucky and will take weeks to repair, said Matt Bruning, a spokesperson with the Ohio Department of Transportation. At least three beams and a section of the roadway will need replaced, he said. What caused the fire is under investigation, said Frank McKinley, the city’s fire chief. The flames were fueled by mulch as well as plastic and wood playground structures below the bridge, he said. More than 60 firefighters helped bring the fire under control, he said.
Conservancy district agrees to fracking lease at Leesville Lake for $12.4 million plus royalties (Jake Zuckerman, Cleveland.com) – A state watershed conservancy district voted to sell drilling rights underneath 2,257 acres of Leesville Lake in Carroll County for about $12.4 million plus 20% on royalties to Encino Energy, a Houston based oil and gas company. The board of directors of the Muskingum Watershed Conservancy District voted last week to allow its staff to execute the lease, which hasn’t yet been finalized, according to spokeswoman Adria Bergeron.She said the lease will not allow surface operations at Leesville. Instead, drillers will need to operate from well pads adjacent to the property, where they dig down thousands of feet before turning 90-degrees and reaching underneath the lake for its gas reserves. She said the lease will contain “all the standard MWCD environmental and operational protections.” The district, which operates dams over the watershed reaching from Akron to Buckeye Lake, formed in the early 20th century as a conservation effort after deadly flooding. But since the natural gas boom of the 2010s on Marcellus and Utica shale fields, it has leased out more than 31,000 acres of lands to Encino, Gulfport Energy, of Oklahoma, and Antero Resources, of Houston, bringing in more than $278 million in leases and royalty payments between 2011 and 2022.The money funds conservation projects, developments and new buildings at the district’s parks and campgrounds, expensive upkeep on the Muskingum dams, among other things.To free natural gas from shale underground, operators pump in a mixture of sand, water and chemicals at high pressure. To meet the water demand, the conservancy district has sold more than 1 billion gallons of its water to the operators. However, a spokesman said it has not entered any water sales agreement with Encino.Cleveland.com and The Plain Dealer reached out to an Encino spokeswoman.Leesville Lake in eastern Ohio includes 1,000 acres of water and about 2,700 acres of land, according to the district, and is popular among muskie fishers and campers. In 2012, the district signed a lease with Chesapeake Energy (later acquired by Encino) for mineral rights to 3,682 acres of Leesville Lake. Tappan Lake, a 2,350 acre body of water, also sits in the Muskingum Watershed Conservancy District. The MWCD entered a $40 million lease with Encino Energy, allowing drilling under the lake. It also sells water from the lake to power the fracking for gas underneath.Republican state lawmakers recently passed legislation allowing state agencies – namely the departments of natural resources and transportation – to lease out state lands for oil and gas development. The state Oil and Gas Land Management Commission has allowed for leases at Salt Fork State Park and several other state wildlife areas since then. The Muskingum Watershed Conservancy District, which is technically formed by local governments through the court system, has already been executing such fracking leases since at least 2012 and conventional oil and gas leases for decades.
Utica Shale Play Resurgence is Real – It's Time to Get Excited! | Marcellus Drilling News - Guy Coviello, President and CEO of the Youngstown/Warren Regional Chamber of Commerce, is jazzed about the resurging Utica Shale and says it's time to get excited about it. In a recent column, Coviello said it's time "to once again embrace our friends in the oil and gas industry, for our policymakers to invest in the infrastructure necessary to enrich our Valley, for community leaders to roll out red carpets, and for government at all levels to keep the regulatory environment safe and friendly." What has Coviello so jazzed, especially for the northern Utica? We can sum it up in one word: Oil. COLUMBIANA COUNTY | ENCINO ENERGY | MAHONING COUNTY
CNX Drilled Just 3 New Wells in 3Q – Shifts Focus to Utica | Marcellus Drilling News --Last week, CNX Resources issued its third quarter 2024 update. The company made $65.5 million in profit for the quarter, compared with a profit of $21.3 million in 3Q23 (more than doubling net income). Production was 134.5 Bcfe (billion cubic feet equivalent) in 3Q24 — which works out to 1.46 Bcfe/d — down from 143.4 Bcfe last year (a drop of 6%). Drilling all but stopped during 3Q. The company drilled just three new wells, all of them in the Utica in central PA.
CenterPoint Energy files request to recover investments in pipeline safety and modernization in west central Ohio - CenterPoint Energy's Ohio-based natural gas business today filed an application with the Public Utilities Commission of Ohio (PUCO) to recover costs incurred to build a safer and more modern natural gas system for more than 333,000 customers in its 16-county service area in West Central Ohio. The company's proposal includes recovery of costs for critical and continued investments in gas safety, reliability and infrastructure improvements."Our top priority is to continue to strengthen the safety and reliability of the natural gas service we provide to our customers and communities," said Ashley Babcock, CenterPoint's Vice President of Gas Operations, Indiana and Ohio. "From installing new industry-grade pipes and more advanced meters, to improving leak detection and meeting the needs of our customers, these investments support our ability to deliver the level of service that our customers expect and deserve."To meet the region's needs, CenterPoint has invested $830 million in its Ohio natural gas infrastructure since 2018. Key benefits to customers from investments have included:
- Pipeline replacement: Nearly 400 miles of bare steel and cast-iron pipes, along with approximately 70 miles of coated steel, have been replaced.
- System modernization: Approximately 30,000 new advanced meters have been installed to enhance measurement accuracy and integrate safety features.
- Leak detection and mitigation: The deployment of Picarro leak detection technology has improved safety by identifying leaks earlier and reduced methane emissions.
- Service expansion: New service lines and more than 12,500 new gas service installations have been completed, expanding access in residential and business communities while supporting economic growth and development.
- CenterPoint has collaborated with local leaders on transformative projects, such as extending natural gas service to support the Menards manufacturing facility in Fayette County, which brought an $81.5 million investment and 150 new jobs, and the Royal Canin pet food facility in Preble County, attracting $390 million and 224 jobs.
- Transmission line upgrades: Large high-pressure pipelines have been upgraded to meet regulatory standards.
CenterPoint's proposal, which represents the first time in six years the company has sought a rate adjustment, would result in an increase of approximately $23 per month for the average residential customer. The PUCO's review of CenterPoint's request is expected to take several months, with a final decision expected by early 2026. During this time, CenterPoint is committed to engaging with its customers and welcomes public input as part of its commitment to meet the current and future needs of its natural gas customers.
Gas line rupture prompts evacuations in Delaware County, repairs ongoing - FOX 28 Columbus -- A construction crew struck a gas line on Thursday, prompting the evacuation of nearby residents and the closure of the intersection at Joy Avenue and Lake Street. The area remains closed as repairs continue. According to Columbia Gas, approximately 30 homes have been evacuated. Residents reported the gas leak as "very loud." Columbia Gas initially informed residents that the leak would be resolved by 11 a.m. on Friday, but the timeline has now been extended to the evening. Power in the area has been turned off as crews attempt to make repairs. Columbia Gas said in a statement, "Columbia Gas continues to make repairs to a gas line ruptured Thursday and is working with affected residents." The company has set up a phone line at 1-800-344-4077 for residents seeking information on lodging and other reimbursement claims. Columbia Gas expressed hope that residents would be able to return to their homes by this evening. The company advised residents needing to enter their homes for medication, clothing, or other necessities to contact a Columbia Gas employee or a fire department member on-site for assistance. A spokesperson from the Delaware County Fire Department told ABC 6 they are starting to allow some residents back into their houses on Joy Avenue. However, there's still an evacuation zone for some of the homes.
17 New Shale Well Permits Issued for PA-OH-WV Oct 21 – 27 - Marcellus Drilling News - For the week of Oct 21 – 27, there were 17 permits issued to drill Marcellus/Utica wells, up from 14 permits issued the prior week. The Keystone State (PA) had 12 new permits, with five going to Chesapeake Energy (now Expand Energy) in Wyoming County and two each for PennEnergy Resources (Beaver County) and Coterra Energy (Susquehanna County). Single permits were issued to Pennsylvania General Energy, Inflection Energy, and XPR Resources. The Buckeye State (OH) had five new permits, with four going to Gulfport Energy in Belmont County. The other OH permit was for Infinity Natural Resources (INR) in Guernsey County. The Mountain State (WV) issued a big, fat zero new permits last week. BEAVER COUNTY | BELMONT COUNTY | CHESAPEAKE ENERGY | COTERRA ENERGY (CABOT O&G) | GUERNSEY COUNTY | GULFPORT ENERGY | INFLECTION ENERGY | INR/INFINITY NATURAL RESOURCES | LYCOMING COUNTY | PENNENERGY RESOURCES | PENNSYLVANIA GENERAL ENERGY | SUSQUEHANNA COUNTY | WESTMORELAND COUNTY | WYOMING COUNTY (PA) | XPR RESOURCES
PA Drops Another Rig to 17-Year Low; National Rig Count Even @ 585 Marcellus Drilling News - The realignment we spoke of several weeks ago about Pennsylvania losing rigs to its neighbors has deepened. Last week, PA lost another rig, going from 13 rigs down to 12 rigs, while Ohio picked up one rig and now has 10 active rigs. West Virginia also operated 10 rigs last week. Just two months ago (as of August 23), PA operated 21 rigs, OH had 9 rigs, and WV had just 5 rigs. This is a massive realignment away from PA to its neighbors. According to Reuters, PA’s rig count is at a 17-year (!) low. What the heck is going on with the mighty PA Marcellus?
Natural Gas and AI Data Centers Provide Unique PA Political Opportunity By Tim Ryan --Artificial Intelligence (AI) is more than the latest buzzword. It’s rising rapidly, permeating across industries, and is already present in our daily lives.Netflix uses AI to personalize recommendations to users, 50% of global organizations reported adopting AI in at least one business area in 2022, and more than half of Americans use voice assistants to receive information.Behind this tech revolution are electricity-thirsty data centers dotting America’s landscape, processing AI, crypto, e-commerce, and cloud computing. The collective rise in demand to our power grid is something not seen in decades.An AI Google search, for example, needs 10 times the amount of energy as a normal Google search, and all of the current data centers worldwide combined consume more power than all but 16 countries.AI alone is expected to add 20% more to US electricity demand by 2030 and Goldman Sachs projects natural gas will cover 60% of demand. Our grid is bound to hit a limit in its current state, according to Microsoft leadership. To provide the steady, reliable, and affordable power these facilities need, natural gas-powered electricity is increasingly the obvious choice. As the second-largest natural gas production state, Pennsylvania is uniquely positioned to capitalize on this opportunity quickly, benefit from new job creation and investment, and power our high-tech future if we collectively embrace natural gas as part of that solution. Doing so would be welcome news for trade unions and high-tech professionals alike, alongside local communities who benefit from new tax revenues.It’s clear Vice President Kamala Harris’ thinking has evolved on energy, along with other Democrats across the country. Harris had a front row seat as American natural gas rapidly secured our allies abroad against the fallout of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. And she understands how critical natural gas is in achieving her Administration’s goals of reshoring critical manufacturing jobs, alongside renewables, that benefit America’s heartland in states like Pennsylvania. Notably natural gas, more than renewables, is the primary source of America’s world-leading carbon reductions over the last two decades and will continue to be a low-carbon solution deployed abroad to replace coal and fight climate change. It is this debate on natural gas: balancing economic strength, technology, global competitiveness, staying ahead of China, and fighting climate change, where Harris can cement her political position as a sensible Democrat who uniquely understands Pennsylvania.The Keystone State is already home to 71 data centers, with hubs in Pittsburgh and Philadelphia, and has potential to attract even more given its proximity to the Marcellus Shale gas formations that have led Pennsylvania’s energy revolution in recent years. Democratic Governor Josh Shapiro has taken notice of this potential, speaking at an AI forum at Carnegie Mellon this month. Data centers that power AI are so energy-intensive and desperate to meet these power demands that a mothballed nuclear plant once set for decommissioning, Three Mile Island Unit 1 near Harrisburg, will be restarted as part of a 20-year power purchase agreement with Microsoft. This is a positive development, but its potential to be replicated is limited. Natural gas is abundant, flexible, and affordable. Some will say to build renewables only instead, but that is simplistic thinking.We’re already far behind the massive and costly 60% expansion of America’s power grid that Princeton University says is needed just to transition our existing grid to a net-zero future. While solar and wind are vital to a clean energy future, their weather dependence cannot fulfill 24/7 power needs.Harris has a track record on aligning natural gas with opportunity. Under her Administration, the U.S. became the global leader of liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports, and was the largest LNG supplier to Europe in 2022 and 2023, stabilizing the economies of our Allies after Russia’s Ukraine invasion.Pennsylvania workers were part of that victory. Other statewide Democrats get it. Senators Bob Casey (D-PA) and John Fetterman (D-PA) have stood up to their Party and supported the natural gas industry, and Governor Shapiro has laid out plans for a diverse, resilient electricity grid. Pennsylvanians agree: 74% support building more natural gas infrastructure and 79% said natural gas drilling is important to the state’s economy.Pennsylvania has the natural resources, the infrastructure, and the know-how to power the AI boom and benefit so many across the Commonwealth. Natural gas remains the obvious choice to scale up fast to meet new demands, protect our environment, and support Pennsylvania jobs. Balance is key. AI is the future, and the United States can only lead on it with practical energy policy that starts in key states like Pennsylvania.Presidential candidate Harris would be smart to embrace it.
EQT sells remaining stake in Pennsylvania natgas assets for $1.25 billion (Reuters) - EQT Corp said on Tuesday it would sell its remaining interest in its non-operated natural gas assets in northeast Pennsylvania for $1.25 billion in cash to Equinor.The sale comes just months after EQT sold a 40% interest in the assets to Equinor USA in exchange for the Norway-based company's onshore asset in the Appalachian basin and $500 million in cash.Proceeds from the transaction, which is expected to close in the current quarter, will be used to help EQT shed its debt pile, which it accumulated after completing the $14 billion purchase of pipeline operator Equitrans Midstream in July.Though the acquisition added more than 2,000 miles of pipelines to its portfolio, EQT's total debt increased substantially to $13.8 billion as of Sept. 30, compared to $5.8 billion as of Dec. 31, 2023.Equinor will now hold a 40.7% working interest in the gas assets located in the Marcellus shale and will add nearly 80,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day to its near-term U.S. production, the Norwegian firm said in a separate statement.EQT also beat Wall Street expectations for third-quarter profit, benefiting from higher sales volumes, which rose to 581 billion cubic feet equivalent (bcfe) in the three months ended Sept. 30, from 523 bcfe last year.The company raised its total sales volumes forecast to be in the range of 555-605 bcfe in the current quarter, compared to a prior outlook of 515–565 bcfe. Rival Expand Energy which dethroned EQT as the top U.S. producer after its $7.4 billion buy of Southwestern Energy, also posted a surprise profit for the quarter owing to a slight rebound in natural gas prices. Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania-based EQT posted an adjusted profit of 12 cents per share for the quarter, compared with analysts' estimates of 6 cents per share, according to data compiled by LSEG.
Equinor to acquire additional Pennsylvania Marcellus natural gas interests for $1.25 billion | Oil & Gas Journal --Equinor, through Equinor USA Onshore Properties Inc. and Equinor Natural Gas LLC, will add to its US natural gas portfolio through a $1.25-billion signed deal with EQT Corp. for non-operated interest in the northern Marcellus formation.With the deal, Equinor is acquiring 100% of EQT’s remaining working interest in the northeast Pennsylvania gas assets, which are primarily operated by Expand Energy (formerly Chesapeake Energy), the operator said in a release Oct. 29 (OGJ Online, Sept. 26, 2024).The acquisition covers the same acreage included in the swap agreement with EQT announced earlier this year, the operator said in a release Oct. 29 (OGJ Online, Apr. 15, 2024).Through the most-recent deal, Equinor is increasing its average working interest in the northern Marcellus asset to 40.7% from 25.7%. The assets represent about 350 MMcfd of forecasted 2025 net production, EQT Corp. said about the deal as part of its third-quarter earnings release Oct. 29.“We continue to high-grade Equinor’s international portfolio in line with our strategy, improving robustness by adding more natural gas volumes in a core market where we produce with low break-evens and low intensity upstream emissions. We are well positioned in this premium acreage to capitalize on positive long-term demand indicators in the US gas market,” said Philippe Mathieu, executive vice-president for exploration and production international at Equinor. The deal has an effective date of Dec. 31, 2024, and is expected to close in this year’s fourth quarter, subject to required regulatory approvals and clearances.
Blackstone to buy minority stakes in interstate gas pipelines - Private equity firm Blackstone is in advanced negotiations to acquire minority stakes in natural gas producer EQT’s US interstate natural gas pipelines for an estimated $3.5bn, Reuters has reported.The strategic move could assist the natural gas producer in reducing its debt, which escalated following its purchase of Equitrans Midstream, a pipeline operator, in 2024.Citing sources who wished to remain anonymous due to the confidential nature of the discussions,Reuters stated that the investment will be channelled through Blackstone’s credit and insurance division.A deal could be finalised in November/December 2024, provided the ongoing talks do not fall apart.EQT will maintain operational control over the pipelines post-deal.This arrangement would enable Blackstone to earn a steady income, which could be reinvested across its diverse investment strategies, and provide Blackstone with valuable exposure to energy infrastructure assets such as the Mountain Valley Pipeline.The Mountain Valley Pipeline, a 300-mile (482.8km) natural gas conduit extending from West Virginia to Virginia, commenced operations in June 2024 after prolonged legal disputes.A portion of EQT’s interest in the entity owning the Mountain Valley Pipeline is among the most prominent assets included in the current sale.EQT and Blackstone have not commented on the matter.EQT has interests in 940 miles (1,512.8km) of interstate pipelines with the capability to transport 4.4 billion cubic feet per day of natural gas.In July 2024, EQT reported that its pipeline portfolio had generated close to $700m of adjusted earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation.The transaction with Equitrans marked EQT’s transition from an exploration and production entity to a fully integrated natural gas provider, at the cost of accruing $14bn in debt.EQT had previously announced intentions to reduce its debt by $5bn through operational cash flow and asset sales. The company, which agreed in July to sell assets valued at $1.1bn to Equinor, indicated plans to divest minority stakes in its pipelines.Blackstone, familiar with energy infrastructure through its holdings such as Tallgrass Energy and an interest in the Elba Island LNG facility’s controlling company, manages more than $1tn in assets.
DT Midstream expanding Haynesville, Marcellus natural gas pipeline systems - Oil & Gas Journal -DT Midstream Inc. (DTM) has reached final investment decision (FID) on Phase 4 expansion of its Louisiana Energy Access (LEAP) natural gas pipeline system, which will expand its capacity to 2.1-bcfd by first-half 2026. LEAP’s current capacity is 1.9 bcfd.The expansion will use incremental compression and looping and is underpinned by what DTM described as “long-term demand-based contracts with two new customers.” DTM emphasized the system’s role in delivering Haynesville shale production to US Gulf Coast LNG plants in announcing Phase 4 FID.DTM is also expanding a project connecting its Stonewall gas gathering lateral pipeline to EQT Corp.’s 2-bcfd Mountain Valley Pipeline, serving the Marcellus and Utica shales. The expansion, anchored by a long-term agreement with a large privately held producer, will increase Stonewall’s capacity by 100 MMcfd and is expected in service first-half 2026. Stonewall is a 68-mile high-pressure gathering system with 1.5-bcfd capacity. It is a joint venture of DTM (85%) and Antero Midstream Corp. (15%).
Enbridge's Q3 profit more than doubles on acquisition contributions -(Reuters) - Enbridge's third-quarter profit more than doubled from a year ago, the Canadian energy infrastructure company said on Friday, citing incremental contributions from U.S. gas acquisitions, and it raised its estimate of organic growth opportunities. The Calgary-based company, which owns Canada's biggest oil export network and is North America's largest gas utility, said it has C$27 billion ($19.40 billion) of secured growth projects, up from C$24 billion previously.The company reported a profit of C$1.29 billion for the quarter ended Sept. 30, compared with C$532 million a year earlier.Its adjusted profit of 55 Canadian cents per share missed analysts' estimate by one Canadian cent, according to data compiled by LSEG, partly because of higher financing costs related to the U.S. gas acquisitions.Enbridge had closed a $14 billion acquisition, including debt, of three Dominion Energy utilities — East Ohio Gas, Questar Gas and Public Service Co of North Carolina — by the third quarter.Enbridge's adjusted core profit from gas distribution and storage was up 92.6% at C$522 million in the quarter, helped by the acquisitions, which contributed C$217 million.Steady oil demand also boosted the company's earnings with its Mainline system transporting 2.96 million barrels per day in the quarter. Adjusted core profit of the pipeline network rose 3.2% to C$1.35 billion, helped by higher tolls. Mainline is North America's largest crude oil pipeline network. It transports light and heavy crude oil, natural gas liquids and refined products from Edmonton, Alberta to various markets in Canada and the U.S. Midwest.
US Shale Gas Production Declines for the First Time Since 2000 -U.S. natural gas production from shale and tight formations, which accounts for 79% of dry natural gas production, decreased slightly in the first nine months of 2024 compared with the same period in 2023. If this trend holds for the remainder of 2024, it would mark the first annual decrease in U.S. shale gas production since we started collecting these data in 2000.Total U.S. shale gas production from January through September 2024 declined by about 1%, to 81.2 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d), compared with the same period in 2023, while other U.S. dry natural gas production increased by about 6% to 22.1 Bcf/d. Total U.S. dry natural gas production from January through September 2024 averaged 103.3 Bcf/d, essentially flat compared with the same period in 2023.The decline in shale gas production so far this year has been driven primarily by declines in production in the Haynesville and Utica plays. From January through September 2024, shale gas production decreased by 12% (1.8 Bcf/d) in the Haynesville and by 10% (0.6 Bcf/d) in the Utica compared with the same period in 2023. At the same time, shale gas production in the Permian play grew by 10% (1.6 Bcf/d). Production in the Marcellus play, which leads U.S. shale gas production, remained flat.The Haynesville play in northeastern Texas and northwestern Louisiana is a dry natural gas formation. The Utica and Marcellus plays in the Appalachian Basin produce lease condensate in addition to dry natural gas. In all three plays, natural gas prices mostly drive drilling and developing wells. The U.S. benchmark Henry Hub daily natural gas price has generally declined since August 2022 and reached record lows in the first half of 2024, making drilling natural gas wells less profitable, particularly in the Haynesville. Several operators in the Haynesville and the Appalachian Basin shut in natural gas production in reaction to historically low prices and intend to continue curtailments in the second half of 2024.In contrast, natural gas produced in the Permian play in western Texas and southeastern New Mexico is primarily associated gas from oil wells where drilling and development is driven by the oil price. Natural gas production in the Permian has increased this year along with increasing oil production. Shale natural gas production in the Utica was 5.6 Bcf/d in September, 33% less than the monthly high of 8.3 Bcf/d in December 2019 and 10% less than the average of 6.2 Bcf/d in 2023. At depths of 5,000 feet to 11,000 feet, wells in the Utica, which lies beneath the Marcellus, are slightly more expensive to drill than Marcellus wells because of their depth.
Has The Shale Gas Boom Peaked? EIA Signals First Drop In Production - Forbes - Robert Rapier - Oil and gas fields, no matter how productive, eventually decline. Before the transformative impact of the shale boom, U.S. oil production had been steadily falling for decades, while natural gas output had plateaued.But the rise of shale drilling changed everything. Beginning in 2006, U.S. natural gas production surged by an impressive 94%, and by 2009, oil production also turned a corner, ultimately soaring by 170%.U.S. Field Production of Crude Oil. For years, experts have debated how long this shale surge could last. Now, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) hasoffered a clue: U.S. shale gas production, which accounts for 79% of all dry gas output, dropped slightly in the first nine months of 2024 compared to the previous year. Should this pattern hold, 2024 could mark the first recorded decline in U.S. shale gas production since the EIA began tracking it in 2000.Annual U.S. Natural Gas Production 2000-2024. Total U.S. shale output dropped by 1% to 81.2 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) from January to September 2024, while other dry gas production increased by 6%, averaging 103.3 Bcf/d overall. The decrease is primarily due to declines in the Haynesville (down 12%) and Utica (down 10%) plays, with only the Permian region showing growth (up 10%).Falling natural gas prices, which hit record lows in 2024, contributed to production slowdowns, especially in dry gas regions like the Haynesville. Reduced profitability led several operators to shut down wells, and the number of active rigs in the Haynesville, Utica, and Marcellus plays has significantly declined since late 2022.By September 2024, the Haynesville had only 33 rigs operating—a 53% decrease since January 2023—and the Utica and Marcellus also saw rig count reductions of more than 50% and 36%, respectively.Higher drilling costs in the Haynesville and Utica, along with reduced demand, have further limited production. In September, Haynesville production was 13.0 Bcf/d, down 14% from its peak in 2023. Meanwhile, the U.S. benchmark Henry Hub natural gas price averaged $2.10 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) in 2024, a 79% drop from 2022's inflation-adjusted high of $9.39/MMBtu.In the latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, the EIA projects that U.S. dry natural gas production will average 103.5 Bcf/d in 2024, a slight decrease from 2023. Looking ahead to 2025, the agency forecasts a modest rebound, with production expected to reach 104.6 Bcf/d.While the decline in shale production is noteworthy, the potential for future growth remains, contingent on market dynamics and demand.The shale boom reshaped the U.S. energy industry, but recent declines in production suggest the surge may be slowing. Lower gas prices and a reduced number of active rigs have led to a production dip that raises questions about future growth of U.S. shale.As production levels stabilize, market watchers will be keen to see how the industry adapts to evolving economic and environmental factors. Whether this is a temporary dip or a sign of a long-term trend, the future of shale gas production will play a crucial role in shaping the U.S. energy market.
NYSE Threatens Nine Energy Services with Stock Delisting, Again | Marcellus Drilling News --Nine Energy Service, an oilfield services (OFS) company that competes with companies like Halliburton and Baker Hughes, operates in a number of shale basins, including the Marcellus/Utica. Last week, the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) informed Nine the company’s stock is in danger of being delisted from the exchange because the company’s average market capitalization over 30 consecutive trading days, as well as stockholders’ equity, has fallen below $50 million. This isn't the first time Nine has been threatened with delisting (see NYSE Threatens Nine Energy Services with Stock Delisting).
What Will the Election Mean for the U.S. LNG Sector? — Listen Now to NGI’s Hub & Flow --Click here to listen to the latest episode of NGI’s Hub & Flow. NGI’s Jamison Cocklin, managing editor of LNG, and Jacob Dick, senior editor of LNG, discuss the upcoming election and what a Harris or Trump presidency could mean for the U.S. LNG sector.They explore how either candidate may approach new export projects after a lengthy pause on authorizations that was imposed by the Biden administration. The conversation also focuses on Trump’s tariff proposals and a potential trade war with China, as well as how down-ballot races could impact U.S. LNG exports. Believing that transparent markets empower businesses, economies and communities, NGI – which publishes daily, weekly and monthly natural gas indexes at pricing points across North America – works to provide natural gas price transparency for the Americas. NGI’s Hub & Flow podcast is a part of that effort.
DT Midstream Sanctions LEAP Phase 4 Natural Gas Pipeline Expansion for Haynesville Growth -- DT Midstream Inc. (DTM) has reached a final investment decision (FID) for the Phase 4 expansion of its LEAP natural gas gathering system serving the Haynesville Shale, management said Tuesday. Chart showing Louisiana and DT Midstream's natural gas infrastructure.The LEAP system allows Haynesville gas to reach the Gillis hub and various markets including LNG export plants on the Gulf Coast.The 200 MMcf/d expansion would bring LEAP’s total capacity to 2.1 Bcf/d. The project is underpinned by long-term, demand-based contracts with two LEAP customers and is expected to enter service in the first half of 2026, according to DTM.
As Other Projects Fall Behind, Cheniere Says Corpus Christi LNG Expansion Still Ahead of Schedule - Cheniere Energy Inc. said Thursday that the Corpus Christi Stage 3 expansion project in South Texas remains on track to produce first LNG this year. As the timelines for other North American projects have slipped, CEO Jack Fusco said the company’s contractor Bechtel Corp. is working on an accelerated schedule. He said pre-commissioning activities on Train 1 of the project are advancing, with nearly half the required systems turned over to commissioning and start-up teams. The company expects to introduce natural gas into Train 1 in the coming weeks as it’s been signaling.
US natgas prices dive 10% on mild forecasts, rising output (Reuters) -U.S. natural gas futures plunged about 10% on Monday to a one-week low,on forecasts for mild weather through at least mid-November, less demand next week than previously expected and an increase in output in recent days. Another factor weighing on gas prices was a 6% drop in oil futures on Monday after a limited Israeli attack on Iran over the weekend. O/R On its second to last day as the front-month, gas futures NGc1 for November delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 25.1 cents, or 9.8%, to settle at $2.309 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), their lowest close since Oct. 18. That was the biggest daily percentage loss since the contract lost about 17% on Jan. 30. Futures for December NGZ24, which will soon be the front-month, were down about 23 cents to $2.86 per mmBtu. With mild weather squeezing demand and output rising, analysts projected utilities likely injected more gas into storage than normal last week fora second week in a row for the first time since October 2023. There was about 5% more gas in storage than normal for this time of year. EIA/GAS Prior to last week, injections had been smaller than usual for 14 weeks in a row because many producers have reduced drilling activities so far this year after average spot monthly prices at the U.S. Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL benchmark in Louisiana fell to a 32-year low in March. Prices have remained relatively low since then. Looking ahead, the market is showing signs of giving up on thoughts that extreme cold could cause prices to spike this winter with futures for March 2025 trading at a record low premium over April 2025 NGH25-J25 of just 5 cents per mmBtu. March is the last month of the winter storage withdrawal season and April is the first month of the summer storage injection season. Since gas is primarily a winter heating fuel, traders have said summer prices should not trade above winter. Financial group LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states slipped to 101.6 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in October, down from 101.8 bcfd in September. That compares with a record 105.5 bcfd in December 2023. But on a daily basis, output was up about 1.6 bcfd over the past four days to a preliminary eight-week high of 102.8 bcfd on Sunday. With so many firms curtailing drilling activities so far this year, analysts projected average output in calendar 2024 will decline for the first time since 2020 when the COVID-19 pandemic cut demand for the fuel. Looking forward, however, analysts projected producers would boost output to meet rising liquefied natural gas (LNG) export demand with two new export plants - Venture Global LNG's Plaquemines in Louisiana and Cheniere Energy's Corpus Christi stage 3 expansion in Texas - expected to enter service later this year. LSEG forecast average gas demand in the Lower 48, including exports, would rise from 99.1 bcfd this week to 101.5 bcfd next week. The forecast for next week was lower than LSEG's outlook on Friday.
Oil Prices Rebound, But Henry Hub Nat Gas Still Taking a Beating -U.S oil and gas prices have taken divergent trajectories, with oil prices rebounding while natural gas prices have continued to fall in Thursday’s session. Oil and gas prices crashed on Monday, with benchmark crude oil futures falling to their biggest one-day decline in more than two years after Israel launched limited attacks on Iran that disappointed markets, followed by Tehran stating it would not retaliate with a direct response. However, oil prices have pared back some of the losses with nearly a percentage point in gains.Brent crude for December delivery was trading at $73.17 per barrel at 12.32 am ET, up from their 2-month low of $70.97 on Tuesday while WTI crude for December delivery was up 0.85% on the day to trade at $69.19 per barrel.Commodity analysts at Standard Chartered havepointed out that oil markets are overlooking the vulnerability of Iran’s energy infrastructure to future attacks. Three days ago, the Guardian reported that Israel used precision air and drone strikes to principally target air defense systems protecting crucial oil and gas facilities, as well as military sites linked to Tehran’s nuclear programme and ballistic missile production. Meanwhile, natural gas futures have dropped below $2.8/MMBtu as supply concerns eased, after losing 11% earlier in the week, and down another 4.15% at the time of writing. Meteorologists have forecast warmer-than-normal temperatures across the Lower 48 states through at least November 9, giving utilities an opportunity to inject more gas into storage than usual for this time of year. Further, LNG feedgas supply is expected to stay below record levels for the next few weeks due to maintenance at various facilities including Cheniere Energy (NYSE:LNG) and Cameron LNG. U.S. gas production from the lower 48 states averaged 102.8 Bcf/d over the weekend, close to 103 Bcf/d summer high and up about 2 Bcf/d from autumn lows. In its October short-term energy outlook (STEO), the EIA forecast Henry Hub spot prices would average $3.06/MMBtu in 2025. On a quarterly basis, the EIA predicted in the October STEO that Q4 2024 Henry Hub spots prices would average $2.81/MMBtu, and $3.16/MMBtu in Q1 2025, dipping lower in Q2 and then up to $3.35/MMBtu in Q4.
US natgas prices drop 5% on mild weather forecasts, big storage injection (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures dropped about 5% on Thursday due to an expected bigger-than-usual storage build and forecasts for mild weather to continue through mid-November. That mild weather should keep heating demand lower than usual for this time of year and allow utilities to keep adding more gas into storage than normal for at least a few more weeks. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said utilities added 78 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas into storage during the week ended Oct. 25. That was a little less than the 82-bcf build analysts forecast in a Reuters poll and compared with an increase of 77 bcf in the same week last year and a five-year (2019-2023) average rise of 67 bcf for this time of year. It was the first time utilities added more gas into storage than usual for two weeks in a row since October 2023. Those injections boosted stockpiles to about 5% above the five-year average. Prior to last week, storage injections had been smaller than usual for 14 consecutive weeks because many producers reduced drilling activities this year after average spot monthly prices at the U.S. Henry Hub benchmark in Louisiana fell to a 32-year low in March. Prices have remained relatively low since then. Front-month gas futures for December delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 13.8 cents, or 4.9%, to settle at $2.707 per million British thermal units (mmBtu). losed at its highest price since Oct. 4. For the month, the front-month was down about 7% after soaring 37% in September. Financial group LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states eased to 101.7 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in October, down from 101.8 bcfd in September. That compared with a record 105.5 bcfd in December 2023. On a daily basis, however, output was on track to drop by about 2.3 bcfd over the past three days to a preliminary two-week low of 101.0 bcfd on Thursday. With so many firms curtailing drilling activities, analysts projected average output in calendar 2024 will decline for the first time since 2020 when the COVID pandemic cut demand for the fuel. Meteorologists projected the weather in the Lower 48 states would remain warmer than normal through at least Nov. 15. But even warmer-than-normal weather in early November is cooler than warmer-than-normal weather in late October. So with seasonally cooler weather coming, LSEG forecast average gas demand in the Lower 48, including exports, would rise from 99.5 bcfd this week to 100.9 bcfd next week. The forecast for next week was lower than LSEG's outlook on Wednesday. The amount of gas flowing to the seven big U.S. LNG export plants rose to an average of 13.1 bcfd so far in October, up from 12.7 bcfd in September. That compares with a monthly record high of 14.7 bcfd in December 2023.
Kinder Morgan, TC Energy Approved for Bakken Natural Gas Egress Projects - FERC this month cleared a pair of natural gas pipeline projects by TC Energy Corp. and Kinder Morgan Inc. designed to add Bakken Shale takeaway capacity with access to natural gas trading markets in Colorado. A map of Kinder Morgan's Bakken Xpress Pipeline from North Dakota, Montana and Wyoming to Colorado, with key NGI spot prices for the region listed in a table. Expand Kinder Morgan’s Wyoming Interstate Co. LLC (WIC) would provide 300,000 Dth/d of firm transportation capacity along its system and three other pipelines in a project dubbed Bakken Xpress. Hess and Oneok Rockies Midstream LLC signed on as shippers during an open season for 430,000 Dth/d in 2023. Under a certificate approved by the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (No. CP23-543), WIC will lease capacity on TC’s Northern Border and Bison pipeline systems and Fort Union Gas Gathering.
Peoples Gas pipeline program will cost another $12.8 billion to complete, report says- As the Illinois Commerce Commission nears a decision on the fate of the paused Peoples Gas pipeline replacement program following a yearlong review, a study released Tuesday for the Citizens Utility Board warns that completing the work would cost another $12.8 billion — topping recently revised utility projections by more than $5 billion. Peoples Gas would need to impose record-breaking 7% annual rate increases over the next 15 years to cover that cost, effectively doubling delivery charges for its customers by 2040, the target completion date for the Safety (formerly System) Modernization Program, according to the Groundwork Data report commissioned by CUB. “Our analysis finds that resuming the SMP at full funding levels puts Peoples Gas on an unsustainable trajectory with respect to revenue requirements and customer rate increases,” the report concluded. Peoples Gas, which was provided a copy of the report before its release, refuted many of the findings — including the remaining cost — and disagreed with the conclusion that completing the pipeline replacement program was financially untenable for the company and its customers. At the same time, the utility acknowledged that the projected price tag has gone up by billions of dollars since the program was paused by the ICC last fall. “Unfortunately, the delay caused by the ICC’s decision to pause the safety work will likely have some cost impacts,” Peoples Gas spokesperson David Schwartz said in a statement. Groundwork Data is a New York-based consulting firm focused on the transition to clean energy, a government-mandated change that the report said will reduce demand for natural gas before the pipeline project is completed, increasing the cost burden for remaining Peoples customers. The ICC is expected to issue an order in January on the scope of the pipeline replacement program moving forward, but Tuesday’s report is too late to be filed as part of the proceedings, a CUB spokesperson said. Launched in 2011, the program to replace 2,000 miles of aging iron pipes below Chicago streets was plagued from the outset by delays and budget overruns. More than a decade later, the project is 38% complete and Peoples Gas says it will take until 2040 to finish — if the ICC approves its resumption. The pipeline replacement program was originally projected to cost $2.6 billion and take 20 years to complete. Those projections have been upwardly revised several times since Milwaukee-based WEC Energy Group acquired Peoples Gas in 2015. Peoples Gas has spent $3.3 billion on the pipeline replacement program to date, Schwartz told the Tribune. The utility’s 891,000 Chicago customers have borne that cost. Last year, Peoples Gas asked for a record $402 million rate hike for 2024, in large part to continue funding the pipeline replacement program after a 10-year legislative surcharge enabling it to automatically pass the costs along to customers expired. The ICC reduced the rate increase and paused the program for the entirety of 2024 to conduct an investigation. At the time the program was paused, Peoples said it would cost $8 billion to complete, including the $3.3 billion already spent. That was at the low end of an $8 billion to $11 billion range that Peoples had filed with the ICC under the new owners in 2015. During the review process with the ICC, Peoples Gas revised its projections, pegging its preferred pathway forward at $7.2 billion in additional spending to complete the project. That would put the entire project cost at $10.5 billion over 30 years. The utility also presented two alternative approaches during the review process, the most expensive of which would cost nearly $13 billion to finish the work. “Our proposal to restart work — if approved by state regulators — would cost $5.5 billion less than what CUB’s allies proposed, and would keep total costs within the estimate-range we provided to the ICC in 2015,” Schwartz said in a statement. The Groundwork study said it will take $12.8 billion to complete the work — on top of the $3.3 billion already funneled into the program — with Peoples customers paying the tab through 2040 and potentially beyond.
Trump and Harris support fracking. What does it mean for Illinois? --Steve Harmon’s house shakes when the mining company 100 yards away blasts into what was once farmland. His patio is constantly covered in a thin layer of fine white sand. He and his neighbors also had their groundwater wells replaced two years ago after iron leached into their drinking water. This is the lesser-known side of the fracking industry that former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris have vocally supported on the campaign trail. Despite a recent proliferation of clean energy sources, both presidential candidates say a domestic supply of emissions-intensive fossil fuels is essential for national security in what political pundits say is an appeal to Pennsylvania voters. The swing state was at the center of the fracking industry boom during the 2000s that transformed the United States from being dependent on foreign fuel sources to the world’s top oil and natural gas producer.Fracking enables the extraction of oil and gases encased in rock formations thousands of feet underground that are not easily permeable via traditional drilling methods. The process releases large amounts of methane, a gas with 80 times more warming power than carbon dioxide in the short term. Beyond contributing to climate change, the fracking industry has also had wide-reaching impacts on land use and community health, from drilling operations in Pennsylvania to sand mines in Illinois. LaSalle County in north central Illinois sits on rich deposits of silica sand, the optimal ingredient for a pressurized cocktail of sand, water and chemicals that is essential for fracking.“The oil and gas companies have tried to make fracking seem like a drilling technique but we’re really talking about a vast transformation of rural landscapes into industrial ones,” said Megan Hunter, Earthjustice senior attorney.The cocktail is injected into bedrock to fracture it and force once-trapped oil and natural gas to the surface. Most of this drilling has happened in Pennsylvania, North Dakota and Texas, which have richer fossil fuel reserves and less restrictive regulations than Illinois.However, little attention and oversight has been given to the sand mines in LaSalle County that proliferated because of drilling operations in these other states.LaSalle County’s sand mining industry, which dates back to the late 1800s and historically provided sand for glassmaking, boomed in tandem with fracking in the 2000s and 2010s. Three new mines opened — including Northern White Sand, the one next to Harmon’s house, and another bordering a state park — and three mines significantly expanded.“There was no increased demand from the glass industry, this was an entirely fracking-driven proposition,” said Ted Auch, the Midwest program director of the nonprofit FracTracker Alliance. He estimates that the mined acres in LaSalle County have nearly doubled since 2007. Today, sand mines occupy nearly 4,500 acres, equivalent to 600 football fields. Most of the land they expanded to had once been farms. “We’ve got some of the best black dirt around. Everyone out here knows farming is so good around here because the guy upstairs put eight inches of black dirt here,” said another lifelong LaSalle County resident and farmer Michael Rogowski. “The sand mines don’t look at it that way. They just look at it as a place where they’re going to make some money.”
EIA: Surge in Iraqi oil exports to the US - Iraqi oil exports to the United States increased last week, according to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA.) The EIA reported on Sunday that the average US crude oil imports from ten key countries reached 5.647 million barrels per day (bpd) last week, an increase of 640.000 bpd from the previous week’s average of 5.007 million bpd. The report said that Iraq’s oil exports to the US averaged 237.000 bpd last week, which represented 167.000 bpd more than the previous week’s average of 70.000 bpd. Canada led the oil imports to the US last week, averaging 3.719 million bpd, followed by Columbia with 365.000 bpd, Venezuela came next with 289.000 bpd, and Brazil with 285.000 bpd. According to the EIA data, the US imported 258.000 bpd from Mexico, 150.000 bpd from Saudi Arabia, 138.000 bpd from Ecuador, 125.000 bpd from Nigeria, and 89.000 bpd from Libya.
Biden Administration Endorses Approval of Texas Oil Port - The Environmental Protection Agency has given its blessing for a proposed Texas oil port capable of exporting 1 million barrels of oil a day, even as the terminals face increasing scrutiny from environmental activists, progressive lawmakers and local officials. In a letter from the EPA made public by opponents of the project Thursday, the agency said it “does not object to the issuance of a license” for Sentinel Midstream LLC’s Texas Gulflink Deepwater Port. The company, which is backed by private equity firm Cresta Fund Management, still needs final approval via a record of decision from the Transportation Department’s Maritime Administration. The decision is expected by December 12. The project, proposed off the coast of Brazoria County, Texas, would allow oversized oil tankers known as very large crude carriers, or VLCCs, to load as much as 85,000 barrels of crude oil an hour. The Biden administration in April signed off on a similar nearby export facility by Enterprise Products Partners with the capacity to export 2 million barrels of oil a day and applications for two other deepwater oil export terminals are pending. The approvals come as large vessels are increasingly being used on shorter routes and as massive growth in US oil exports is expected by the end of the decade. The facilities have drawn fire from progressive Democratic lawmakers, local officials and climate activists who have been pressuring President Joe Biden to halt the projects arguing they contradict his administration’s commitment to environmental justice and fighting climate change. GulfLink alone would be responsible for more than 100 million tons of upstream and downstream greenhouse gas emissions per year, according to Earthworks, an environmental group opposed to the project. Sentinel Midstream didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment. The EPA, in its letter dated October 25, said the agency “recommends continued emphasis on ensuring environmental justice and climate change considerations be included in the licensing project for the protection of overburdened communities.”
ONEOK's Acquisitions Pay Off with Increased Earnings - A day after showing an increase in third-quarter income partly thanks to acquisitions over the last year, ONEOK announced the closing of its latest deal to buy Medallion Midstream for about $2.6 billion. ONEOK announced the pending $5.9 billion deal for Medallion and EnLink Midstream in August. The $3.3 billion EnLink acquisition closed on Oct. 15 following the federally required Hart-Scott-Rodino waiting period. Medallion’s crude pipeline network will complement ONEOK’s existing gathering and long-haul pipelines, said Sheridan Swords, ONEOK executive vice president for commercial liquids and natural gas gathering and processing, during the company’s third-quarter earnings call on Oct. 30."With the acquisition of Medallion, the largest privately-held crude gathering and transportation system in the Permian's Midland Basin, we continue our demonstrated track record of intentional and disciplined growth," said Pierce H. Norton II, ONEOK president and CEO, in a press release on Oct. 31.The Medallion acquisition will continue to boost the company’s revenue, which already saw a boost in the third quarter due to the continued integration of previous acquisitions.ONEOK completed its acquisition of Magellan Midstream, one of the largest midstream companies in the U.S., in September 2023. The company is still identifying synergies from the merger, Norton said. In 2024, before adding EnLink and Magellan, ONEOK added an NGL pipeline network from Easton Energy in southeast Texas and expanded a refined products pipeline to the Denver area in July.The additional assets brought in extra revenue. ONEOK’s net income from July to September was $693 million, a 52.6% increase by $239 million year-over-year.The company said the increase was driven by commercial strength in the Rockies, increased natural gas transport and the addition of a new refined products and crude segment.In the Rockies, the company reported a 7% increase in NGL raw feed throughput and a 5% increase in natural gas processed. Overall, the natural gas pipeline segment saw a 22% increase in EBITDA.ONEOK’s increased gas pipeline traffic shows the difference between basin production. Natural gas traffic out of the crude-focused Permian, where ONEOK is connected, rose in 2024 as E&P businesses focused on oil. But in the gas-focused Appalachian shales, most E&Ps have curtailed or flattened production since the beginning of 2024.
ExxonMobil, Chevron Beat Expectations on Higher Permian Production - Exxon Mobil Corp. and Chevron Corp. beat analysts’ estimates as rising oil production from the Permian Basin helped offset weaker crude prices. Exxon’s third-quarter adjusted profit exceeded expectations by a nickel on Friday, while Chevron surpassed estimates by 11 cents. That followed mixed results from European rivals Shell Plc, TotalEnergies SE and BP Plc. A 20 percent decline in oil prices since early April coupled with a bleak 2025 outlook is testing Big Oil’s ability to stick to buyback commitments dating back to the post-Covid crude rally. While Exxon had ample cash flow to cover such payouts, Chevron’s fell short, forcing the supermajor to rely on borrowing. Exxon rose 1.1 percent in pre-market trading. Chevron climbed 2.5 percent. Exxon is the best-performing oil major this year, rising more than 15 percent even as international crude prices declined. North America’s largest energy explorer demonstrated it has more oil and natural gas production growth — and at lower cost — than peers. Exxon increased dividends for the 42nd consecutive year to 99 cents a share, higher than the 97-cent Bloomberg Dividend Projection. Exxon was able to “fully fund” dividend payouts and share repurchases with cash flow without resorting to debt, Chief Financial Officer Kathy Mikells said during an interview. The company also has a $27 billion cash pile and a net-debt-to-capital ratio of just 5 percent, leaving it in a “strong position” ahead of any oil-market downturn, she said. “We have done a lot of work to fundamentally improve the underlying earnings power of the business and that’s going to put us in really good stead,” Mikells said. Exxon’s fast-growing oil developments in Guyana and the Permian Basin are producing crude for less than $35 a barrel at a time when a barrel fetches more than $70, and Exxon is working on several gas-export projects in Texas, Papua New Guinea and Mozambique. It’s now the biggest producer in the Permian region after its $60 billion acquisition of Pioneer Natural Resources Co. earlier this year. As for Chevron, the explorer expects to close asset sales in Canada, Congo and Alaska by the end of the year as part of a plan to raise as much as $15 billion from divestments by 2028. The driller also is targeting as much as $3 billion of cost reductions by the end of 2026. Chevron’s oil and natural gas output increased 7 percent from a year earlier, with production in the US Permian Basin touching a new quarterly record. It also commenced output from Anchor, the first in a series of new Gulf of Mexico investments. Third-quarter dividends and buybacks amounted to $7.7 billion, outpacing the period’s $5.6 billion in free cash flow. Earlier this year, Chevron pledged to repurchase $17.5 billion of shares annually, or about 6 percent of its market value, making it one of the biggest buybacks in the industry. Management has indicated it’s willing to fund the payout with borrowed money if necessary because the company’s debt is currently well below its medium-term target. But analysts at Citigroup Inc. said explorers with the highest buybacks such as Chevron and Equinor ASA may “need to reset distributions” in response to lower oil prices. “These negative rate-of-change stories will be seen as an issue for some investors,” Citi’s Alastair Syme wrote in an Oct. 23 note. Chevron stock has underperformed Exxon this year amid an arbitration battle that’s stalled the $53 billion deal to buy Hess Corp. New projects in the Gulf of Mexico and Kazakhstan will deliver meaningful cash flow from next year but in the meantime Chevron is heavily reliant on the Permian Basin, where about half its position involves stakes in wells operated by other companies. The company has also been embroiled in a high-profile dispute with the state of California over refining regulations that it claims add to costs and gasoline prices. Chevron announced plans to relocate its corporate headquarters to Houston from the San Francisco Bay area earlier this year after 145 years of being based in the Golden State.
Oil bigwigs open wallets for Trump after billion-dollar request - Oil and gas tycoons made significant contributions to the Trump campaign after the former president asked the industry for $1 billion to support his reelection bid — and reportedly said it would be a “deal” for them to do so. A source told The Hill earlier this year the $1 billion request at an April fundraiser was not framed as any sort of quid pro quo. Nevertheless, Democrats have described the incident as corruption and said they would investigate it, and this was the first election where several oil industry donors opened their pockets for Trump.Two executives who reportedly attended Trump oil industry fundraisers this spring later made significant contributions to Trump-aligned political committees — something they hadn’t done in previous presidential cycles.Cheniere Energy CEO Jack Fusco donated $250,000 to the joint fundraising Trump 47 Committee in June, according to records from the Federal Election Commission (FEC). The committee then distributed $6,600 to the Trump campaign and $243,400 to the Republican National Committee (RNC).As a joint fundraising committee, the Trump 47 Committee allocates funds to the Trump campaign and the RNC and, once the contribution limits are maxed out, to other participating political committees.Fusco attended a dinner where Trump told energy executives they should raise $1 billion to support his return to the presidency and that doing so would be a “deal” because of the money they would save on taxes and regulations, according to The Washington Post.The Post reported that other attendees were executives from companies, including Occidental Petroleum, though it did not name them.In July, Occidental President and CEO Vicki Hollub appears to have donated $41,300 to the RNC through the Trump 47 Committee, according to the contribution memo, and another $41,300 to the RNC on the same day. Campaign finance records show she gave $6,600 to the Trump campaign and $5,000 to Save America, Trump’s leadership PAC, through Trump 47.The FEC’s website lists “retired” as the employer of the Hollub who made the $41,300 donations, but she shares the middle initial and mailing address of the Hollub who leads Occidental, according to other FEC receipts. Some of the other donations from Hollub do not list an employer at all, but still list the same mailing address.Separately, the Post reported that at a different fundraiser in May, Trump promised oil and gas companies he would reduce Federal Trade Commission (FTC) scrutiny of their mergers and acquisitions.Trump specifically promised Occidental better treatment after Hollub complained the agency is delaying Occidental’s acquisition of oil and gas producer CrownRock and probed her phone, according to the Post. A spokesperson for Occidental did not respond to The Hill’s requests for comment and clarification. A Cheniere Energy spokesperson declined to comment.The Guardian and the Post reported that Hollub, alongside Energy Transfer Partners’s Kelcy Warren and Continental Resources’s Harold Hamm co-hosted the May fundraiser for Trump. Hamm, a major Trump donor, also reportedly organized the April fundraiser.While Hamm supported former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley earlier this election cycle, he backed Trump in 2020 and 2016. Hamm gave a total of $320,000 to the Trump Victory PAC, the former president’s joint fundraising PAC, in 2020 and a total of $449,400 in 2016.
New Survey Shows Grim Outlook For Oil Markets -A Reuters poll released Thursday paints a lackluster future for oil in 2025, with a cocktail of sluggish demand growth and supply glut concerns pulling prices down. Analysts now see Brent crude averaging $80.55 per barrel this year and $76.61 in 2025— a steady downgrade from earlier projections. The pessimistic shift stems from a trio of factors. China’s lukewarm demand, despite its role as the world’s top oil consumer, casts a long shadow. Meanwhile, oil supplies from key producers are poised to swell, especially with OPEC+ eyeing an output hike in December. And the geopolitical storms that once rattled markets, particularly fears of escalations in the Middle East, have calmed. As Ole Hansen, Saxo Bank’s head of commodity strategy, noted, these flare-ups may stir oil prices, but the risk of real disruption is, well, limited. U.S. crude also follows suit, with prices expected to hover at $76.73 a barrel this year and down to $72.73 in 2025. This downtrend marks the sixth straight month of reduced expectations for the year’s average prices. Brent’s current crude price is $73.25, with WTI at $69.55 per barrel—up about 1% on the day, but down based on month-ago levels. For 2025, the poll hints at a slight bump in global oil demand by roughly 1-1.5 million barrels per day, though it’s not exactly the cavalry. 2024 global demand is expected to be between 0.8 million and 1.2 million bpd, the poll showed. Seasonal factors may prompt OPEC+ to delay their planned December increase until spring 2025, as Stratas Advisors’ president John Paisie told Reuters, saying “We think that OPEC+ could delay the increase in supply until end of March/beginning of April of 2025, given that demand will drop in Q1 2025 from Q4 2024 because of seasonal factors.” When the geopolitical winds ease and China’s economy stalls, crude prices might just hit the snooze button for a while.
Oil giant Shell posts small drop in third-quarter profit to $6 billion -- British oil giant Shell on Thursday posted a small year-on-year drop to a stronger-than-expected third-quarter profit, partly owing to a sharp drop in crude prices and to lower refining margins. The energy company reported adjusted earnings of $6 billion for the July-September period, beating analyst expectations of $5.3 billion, according to estimates compiled by LSEG. Shell posted adjusted earnings of $6.3 billion in the second quarter and $6.2 billion in the third quarter of 2023. Shell said it will buy back a further $3.5 billion of its shares over the next three months, while holding its dividend unchanged at 34 cents per share. Net debt came in at $35.2 billion at the end of the third quarter, down from $40.5 billion when compared to the same period last year. Shares of the London-listed firm have fallen around 3% year-to-date. Ahead of the firm's third-quarter earnings, Shell warned that refining profit margins had dropped by more than 28% on a quarterly basis, while trading results for its chemicals and oil products division were expected to be lower. British rival BP on Tuesday posted its weakest quarterly earnings in nearly four years, weighed down by lower refining margins. BP reported underlying replacement cost profit, used as a proxy for net profit, of $2.3 billion for the third quarter. That beat analyst expectations — but reflected a steep drop when compared to the same period a year earlier. Oil prices tumbled over 17% in the third quarter amid concerns over the outlook for global oil demand.
NFE’s Fast LNG Ramps Up Production, Feed Gas Demand for Agua Dulce Natural Gas Hub - After nearly four months of operation, New Fortress Energy Inc.’s (NFE) Fast LNG offshore facility in Mexico has ramped up to full liquefaction operations, adding demand for feed gas from the Agua Dulce hub. Natural Gas Intelligence's (NGI) Agua Dulce natural gas price vs Sur de Texas-Tuxpan pipeline flows. NFE, which began producing liquefied natural gas at its Altamira, Mexico facility in July, disclosed Friday that the modular facility is now producing “at or above its” 1.4 million ton/year nameplate capacity. “We are excited that we have achieved full nameplate performance, and believe there is room for further production gains as we continue to commission our facility,” Barry Clayton, senior vice president of Fast LNG Operations, said.
Could the U.S. Election Have Ripple Effects on Natural Gas Trade South of the Border? - The upcoming U.S. election between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump is being watched closely by those involved in the burgeoning natural gas trade that crosses the border. Bar chart showing yearly value of U.S.-Mexico energy trade. The value of all energy trade between the United States and Mexico was $66.5 billion in 2023, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). This was down from $77.8 billion in 2022, adjusted for inflation, principally because of lower fuel prices that offset the increase in the volume of energy trade between the two countries. The U.S. benchmark Henry Hub natural gas price averaged $2.57/MMBtu in 2023, about a 62% drop from the 2022 averages, according to EIA. This year, gas prices also have remained low. NGI’s spot Henry Hub daily natural gas price has averaged $2.124 through Tuesday, according to Daily Historical Data.
Global Natural Gas Prices Decline After Israeli Attack Avoids Iranian Energy Targets — LNG Recap European natural gas prices fell on Monday after supply fears that had gripped the market last week eased, sapping bullish momentum. LNG Export Flow Tracker detailing LNG shipping ports, export data, and natural gas analytics within the global energy market, showcasing energy data visualization and market trends. The November and December Title Transfer Facility contracts both fell by about 2% on Monday after finishing at a record for the year of $13.77/MMBtu and $13.87, respectively, last Friday. Tensions in the Middle East, unplanned outages in the United States and Norway, along with a colder forecast all combined to drive prices higher last week.
TotalEnergies Expects European Market ‘Tension’ to Elevate Natural Gas, LNG Prices Through 2025 - TotalEnergies SE is betting on delays in new LNG capacity – mostly concentrated in the United States – to keep European gas prices elevated into next year. Natural Gas Intelligence's (NGI) global LNG futures settles through 2027 chart. CEO Patrick Pouyanné said the cascading impacts of an LNG development slowdown during the year is expected to push major supply additions into late 2026 at the earliest. In the meantime, geopolitical tensions and supply volatility should keep Title Transfer Facility (TTF) gas prices “more or less the same,” helping boost global benchmarks as LNG competition grows. “I think I would say TTF would be around an average of” $12/MMBtu in 2025, “because, again, we don't see in 2025 any additional capacity that would suddenly change the fundamentals of what I would say is a market still under tension,” Pouyanné said during the company’s third quarter earnings call.
Egypt Snaps Up More U.S. LNG as Search for Spot Cargoes Continues - Egypt is reportedly back in the global LNG market to buy up to 20 LNG cargoes for the first quarter of 2025. Egypt annual LNG imports. Despite closing a September tender for 20 LNG cargoes, the country has continued to struggle to meet domestic gas demand and is expected to need to import more gas, according to news media reports. Egypt again halted LNG exports and resumed imports of the super-chilled fuel in April following a six year import break. State-owned Egyptian Natural Gas Holding Co. (EGAS) and Egyptian General Petroleum Corp. (EGPC) have reportedly bought up to 50 LNG cargoes so far this year.
Türkiye's natural gas imports up 5.74% in August - Türkiye's natural gas imports increased by 5.74% in August, compared to the same month in 2023, according to data from Türkiye's energy watchdog on Monday. Natural gas imports in August reached 3.89 billion cubic meters (bcm), up from approximately 3.68 bcm last year, Türkiye's Energy Market Regulatory Authority (EMRA) said in its monthly natural gas market report. In August, 3.50 bcm of imports were made through pipelines and 384.73 million cubic meters (mcm) was imported via liquefied natural gas (LNG). Russia was the largest natural gas supplier to Türkiye, providing 2.27 bcm, while Azerbaijan and Iran followed with 742.24 mcm and 491.34 mcm, respectively. Algeria exported 384.73 mcm of LNG to Türkiye in August. The country's total gas consumption increased to 3.38 bcm in August, up by 3.61% compared to the same period last year. Household consumption rose by 4.26% to 290.32 mcm in August, while gas consumption in power plants decrease by 9.4% to 1.48 bcm during the same period. The natural gas storage volume in August declined by 17.7% to around 4.32 bcm, compared to 5.25 bcm in August 2023.
Shell’s Global LNG Portfolio Expanding as New Buyers Step Up, but 2025 Still ‘Difficult to Call’ -The No. 1 global LNG trader has “seen some good buying this year,” particularly in the Asia Pacific and Europe, Shell plc CEO Wael Sawan told investors on Thursday. Global map showing Shell plc's major projects. However, the outlook for 2025 is “difficult to call,” he said during the third quarter conference call, “given the volatility and the geopolitical context. But I think it’s fair to say that the market…continues to show balance, at least through the next year, on a physical basis.” Interest continues to be solid for LNG, in particular from China, India and Europe.
ExxonMobil Eyeing More Low Carbon Ventures as Natural Gas, Oil Operations Expand -- Natural gas and oil still rule at ExxonMobil, but CEO Darren Woods on Friday made clear that the energy transition to lower carbon is not limiting growth. It is, in fact, helping to expand it, he told investors. Woods discussed how the integrated major is taking its burgeoning gas and oil business and improving it, opening options to move less intensive carbon dioxide (CO2) supply to global markets while opening the pipeline of new ventures. Traditional natural gas and oil supply continues to expand, especially in the Permian Basin and in Guyana. The move to gain share in the new energy markets, in alignment with fossil fuel development, is running in parallel in a crackdown on CO2 emissions, Woods said.
Ecopetrol pipeline pauses pumping in Colombia after explosives attack causes oil spill (Reuters) -A pipeline moving oil from the Cira Infantas field in Colombia was hit with explosives early on Wednesday, state-run producer Ecopetrol said, causing it to pause pumping at the site after the attack caused an oil spill.
ExxonMobil Agrees to Sell Argentina Shale Oil Assets to Pluspetrol -Exxon Mobil Corp. has agreed to sell most of its assets in Argentina’s Vaca Muerta shale patch to Pluspetrol SA, according to people familiar with the matter. The province of Neuquen, where the assets are located, has yet to sign off on the deal, said one of the people, who asked not to be identified because the discussions are private. Spokespeople for Exxon and Neuquen didn’t immediately respond to requests for comment. EconoJournal first reported Exxon’s agreement to sell to Pluspetrol. Exxon’s Vaca Muerta oil assets — in particular a tract called Bajo del Choique-La Invernada — have been highly sought-after by Argentine drillers. Exxon owns the assets with minority partner QatarEnergy. Exxon is exiting the Vaca Muerta to focus efforts elsewhere, including Guyana, even as momentum in the formation accelerates under the business-friendly government of President Javier Milei. Milei is ending the cap on the price of oil traded domestically to bring it in line with exports, while pipeline build-outs are boosting capacity for crude shipments. Pluspetrol is controlled by two Argentine families. Its South American drilling operations include a natural gas field in Peru and existing acreage in the Vaca Muerta.
Nigeria Sees Objections to Shell Oil Asset Sale Resolved Soon - Nigeria’s upstream oil regulator found some issues with Shell’s proposed sale of its onshore assets to a consortium of local companies but they should be resolved soon, said Olu Verheijen , President Bola Tinubu’s special adviser on energy. “I am sure that in short order it will be resolved with the regulator in a way that addresses our own objectives to continue to accelerate exits for international oil companies,” Verheijen said during a call with the energy reporters’ association on Wednesday.
Oil spill in Singapore waters during bunkering operation -There was an oil spill off Changi to the east of Singapore on 28 October during in a bunkering operation with a bulk carrier. The Maritime & Port Authority of Singapore (MPA) said an oil spill had taken place at around 5:40pm local time on 28 October during a bunkering operation between a Bahamas-flagged bulk carrier Ines Corrado and licensed bunker tanker. The authority said that the bunkering ceased immediately. The MPA said an estimated 5 tonnes of bunker fuel had overflowed during the bunker operation with bulker. Read an update on the bunker spill “MPA craft arrived at about 5.50pm and sprayed dispersants. Relevant government agencies have been alerted to keep a lookout for any oil sighting along the shores,” the MPA said in a statement. The name of bunker tanker was not disclosed. The MPA said that there was no impact to navigational traffic. In an update MPA said: "As at 8am this morning, there is no oil sighted at sea in the vicinity of the incident and ashore." It is the third oil spill reported in Singapore waters this year. In June this year more than 400 tonnes of very low sulphur fuel oil were spilt when Netherlands-flagged dredger Vox Maxima, suffering a sudden loss of engine and steering control, hit stationary bunker vessel Marine Honour at Pasir Panjang Terminal. On 20 October there was an oil leak from a Shell land-based pipeline between Bukom Island and Bukom Kecil. The latest bunkering spill comes at a time when pilots and trials are taking place on the safe bunkering of alternative fuels such as ammonia which poses a different risk to oil spills due to its high toxicity. Singapore is the world's largest bunkering port.
Bunker oil spill stops after Singapore incident - The Maritime and Port Authority of Singapore (MPA) confirmed that oil which overflowed during a bunkering operation from the receiving Bahamas-flagged bulk carrier, INES CORRADO, has stopped. MPA was informed of an oil spill off Changi during a bunkering operation between a Bahamas-flagged container vessel and a licensed bunker tanker. An estimated 5 tonnes of oil was reported to have overflowed as a result of the incident that occurred on 28 October, and the bunkering operations ceased immediately. MPA craft upon arrival sprayed dispersants. In addition, relevant government agencies were alerted to keep a lookout for any oil sighting along the shores. Nevertheless, there was no impact to navigational traffic. As of 29 October, there is no oil sighted at sea in the vicinity of the incident or ashore. Furthermore, as a precautionary measure, a Current Buster has been deployed off Changi to recover oil on water, if sighted. The Malaysian authorities have been alerted to keep a lookout for oil sightings with MPA to investigate the incident.
Petroleum Exports: Petroleum product exports soar 34.9% in September; crude imports rise by 6% -- India's crude oil production witnessed a dip in September 2024, with the indigenous crude oil and condensate output standing at 2.3 million metric tonnes (MMT), marking a 4% decline compared to the same period last year, as per data from the Petroleum Planning & Analysis Cell (PPAC). Oil India Limited (OIL) contributed 0.3 MMT, while ONGC recorded 1.5 MMT, and production from Production Sharing Contracts (PSC) and Revenue Sharing Contracts (RSC) totaled 0.5 MMT. Despite the drop in production, total crude oil processed in the country rose to 21.3 MMT, up by 4.4% compared to September 2023. Of this, public sector units (PSUs) and joint ventures (JVs) processed 14 MMT, while private refiners handled 7.3 MMT. Indigenous crude oil processing was 2.1 MMT, while imported crude oil accounted for 19.2 MMT. Notably, crude oil processing for the April-September FY 2024-25 period grew by 1.8% compared to the same period in FY 2023-24. Production of petroleum products surged to 22.7 MMT in September 2024, registering a 5.8% increase from the previous year. Refinery production accounted for 22.4 MMT, while fractionator output was 0.3 MMT. Among petroleum products, high-speed diesel (HSD) dominated with a 39.4% share, followed by motor spirit (MS) at 17%, naphtha at 6.4%, aviation turbine fuel (ATF) at 6.7%, pet coke at 5%, and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) at 4.4%. The PPAC report also highlighted a 6% rise in crude oil imports in September 2024 compared to the same month last year. For the April-September period of FY 2024-25, crude oil imports saw a 3.9% increase. Petroleum, oil, and lubricants (POL) product imports grew by 2.9% in September and 10.3% during April-September FY 2024-25, driven primarily by increased imports of LPG, pet coke, and lubricants. On the export front, POL products saw a significant jump of 34.9% in September 2024 compared to the same month the previous year. For the April-September period of FY 2024-25, exports rose by 3.3%. The rise in exports was primarily due to higher shipments of pet coke, carbon black feedstock (CBFS), fuel oil (FO), and ATF. The data highlights the changing dynamics in India’s oil sector, emphasizing the country's growing reliance on imports and its expanding export market.
India’s reliance on imported oil, natural gas grows as stagnant domestic production lags demand growth India’s reliance on imported crude oil and natural gas grew further in the first half of the current financial year as the delta between consumption growth and the more or less stagnant domestic production continued to widen. The country’s oil import dependency in April-September (H1) was 88.2 per cent, up from 87.6 per cent in the year-ago period and 87.8 per cent for the full financial year 2023-24 (FY24), per latest data from the oil ministry’s Petroleum Planning & Analysis Cell (PPAC). Import dependency in the case of natural gas was 51.5 per cent in the first six months of FY25, up from 46.8 per cent a year ago and 47.1 per cent for the full FY24. India’s energy demand has been rising rapidly, leading to higher oil and gas imports. Reliance on imported oil has been growing continuously over the past few years, except in FY21, when demand was suppressed due to the COVID-19 pandemic. The country’s oil import dependency stood at 87.8 per cent in FY24, 87.4 per cent in FY23, 85.5 per cent in FY22, 84.4 per cent in FY21, 85 per cent in FY20, and 83.8 per cent in FY19. Heavy dependence on imported crude oil makes the Indian economy vulnerable to global oil price volatility, apart from having a bearing on the country’s trade deficit, foreign exchange reserves, rupee’s exchange rate, and inflation. The government wants to reduce India’s reliance on imported crude oil but sluggish domestic oil output in the face of incessantly growing demand for petroleum products has been the biggest roadblock. In the case of natural gas, the government wants to increase its consumption and share in the country’s primary energy mix to 15 per cent by 2030 from over 6 per cent currently. The rationale behind the push for natural gas, even though it would lead to higher gas imports, is rather simple. Festive offer Natural gas is far less polluting than conventional hydrocarbons like crude oil and coal, and is usually cheaper than oil. It is also seen as a key transition fuel. To be sure though, the government has also been pushing India’s oil and gas companies to increase domestic production of natural gas in a bid to keep import dependency levels under check.
Chennai Petroleum Faces Rs 73 Crore Fine - - The National Green Tribunal (NGT) has imposed a Rs 73 crore penalty on Chennai Petroleum Corporation Limited (CPCL) for the significant oil spill incident in Ennore, Tamil Nadu, which resulted in severe environmental damage. This incident underscores growing accountability measures in India for environmental lapses, especially those impacting coastal and marine ecosystems. The spill, which affected the Ennore Creek and nearby regions, led to substantial ecological and economic repercussions, including damage to local biodiversity, disruption of marine life, and impacts on the livelihoods of nearby communities dependent on fishing and tourism.According to the NGT's assessment, CPCL’s negligence was a critical factor in the spill, leading to extensive contamination across water bodies and coastal areas, resulting in ecological stress in Chennai’s northern coastal zones. .. The tribunal highlighted the need for industries to adopt stringent environmental safeguards, particularly in high-risk sectors like oil and gas. It also emphasized the obligation of companies to prepare adequate response plans and invest in pollution mitigation technologies to prevent and handle such incidents proactively. The Rs 73 crore fine will be allocated towards restoration and compensation efforts aimed at rehabilitating the damaged ecosystems and supporting affected communities. CPCL has been directed to work closely with environmental agencies and state authorities to to execute a comprehensive remediation plan, which includes water quality restoration, mangrove and wetland recovery, and long-term ecological monitoring...
Iran-Pakistan Gas Pipeline Important For South Asian Energy Security - “Iran-Pakistan Gas Pipeline project is crucial for South Asian energy security and the regional attempts of diversification”, said Muhammad Soroush, a prominent Tehran-based analyst at a seminar organized by the Institute of Regional Studies on the Iran Pakistan gas pipeline. Earlier, Ambassador Jauhar Saleem, President IRS, noted in his opening remarks that both Pakistan and Iran had much potential for furthering economic cooperation given their economic size and shared borders. While energy pipelines were much cheaper than shipping, and utilizing gas as a source of energy was significantly less polluting than oil, the US sanctions on Iran posed a serious challenge. Muhammad Soroush, who also heads “Saramad” think tank based in Tehran, hailed IP gas pipeline as a game changer for the region. Noting that Iran had completed the construction of pipeline on its side but due to financial constraints, Pakistan was unable to start working on its part, Soroush felt that this energy project could make Iran a crucial player in South Asian energy landscape. Naade Ali, a Washington-based researcher at Middle East Institute, opined that the US viewed energy cooperation between Pakistan and Iran as a prelude to a strategic partnership. To address this perception Pakistan needed to separate geoeconomics from geopolitics. Explaining US sanctions relief to India, Naade pointed out India’s assurances to the US that its presence in the Chahbahar port would keep Iranian activities in check. Dr Khalid Waleed, anprominent energy expert at SDPI, addressed the issue of a non-productive energy sector. He felt that the energy policy of Pakistan must prioritize the industrial growth while noting that energy shipping lanes were prone to shocks arising from the geopolitical conflicts and therefore, pipelines were a viable alternative. He also suggested that China’s coal-fired power plant projects under CPEC could be transformed into Iran-Pakistan-China gas energy project. Dr Somaye Morovati, Director South Asian Studies at Center for Middle East Strategic Studies in Tehran, stressed upon the need for cooperation between the think tanks of both the countries. She argued that the researchers of both Pakistan and Iran had a very basic knowledge of each other’s governance system. She also emphasised cooperation between Pakistan and Iran in energy and economic corridors as a counterweight to US Indo Pacific Strategy which while aimed at containing China also impacted Pakistan and Iran.
PetroChina to downsize in northern China, shut its Dalian refinery in 2025, sources say PetroChina is set to shut its largest refinery in north China’s Dalian around mid-2025, marking the first major closure at a state-run oil plant, part of a long-mooted project to replace it with a smaller facility at a new site, sources said. The planned shutdown of the entire 410,000 barrels per day (bpd) Dalian Petrochemical plant, representing 3 per cent of the country’s total refinery output, comes as Chinese refiners struggle with overcapacity and weakened fuel demand from slowing economic growth and the electrification of its car fleet. PetroChina has already shut in 210,000 bpd, or about half of the plant’s total crude processing capacity at its Dalian Petrochemical subsidiary, said the sources, declining to be named as the matter is not public. PetroChina did not immediately respond to a request for comment. The closures are part of a long-proposed plan pushed by Dalian to relocate the refinery, which is in a densely populated area near downtown, after several deadly accidents including a major oil spill in 2010, an explosion in 2013 and a fire in 2017, the sources said. Under a framework agreement announced by Dalian authorities in November 2022, CNPC, parent of PetroChina, agreed to build a new 70-billion yuan (US$9.84 billion) refinery and chemical complex on Changxing island, about two hours’ drive from downtown Dalian.
Saudi Oil Export Revenues Hit Three-Year Low as Prices Decline -Lower crude oil prices dragged Saudi Arabia’s oil export revenues to the lowest level in more than three years in August, amid underwhelming oil demand and continued supply constraints from the world’s top crude exporter.The value of Saudi Arabia’s oil exports in August 2024 stood at $17.4 billion (65.3 billion Saudi riyals), down by 15.5% from $20.6 billion (77.3 billion riyals) in August 2023, data from the Kingdom’s General Authority for Statistics showedon Thursday.The August 2024 oil export revenues also fell by 6% from July, and hit their lowest level for any month since June 2021, according to Bloomberg’s estimates.Oil prices fell throughout August and most of September as concerns about global oil demand, especially in China, intensified. Brent briefly topped $80 per barrel in early October as the Iran-Israel conflict flared up, again, before pulling back to $75 a barrel. The market continues to expect an Israeli response to the Iranian missile attack on Israel on October 1.As prices lingered in the low $70s in August, Saudi Arabia’s oil export revenues suffered and so did the Kingdom’s overall merchandise trade exports, the statistics data showed.Merchandise exports fell by 9.8% in August 2024 compared to August 2023, as a result of a 15.5% slump in oil exports. Consequently, the percentage of oil exports out of total exports dropped from 75.1% in August 2023 to 70.3% in August 2024, the statistics authority said.Next year, the Saudi economy and oil export revenues are set for a rebound if OPEC+ keeps its current pledge to begin reversing the production cuts in December.Saudi Arabia’s economy is set to grow by 4.4% next year, accelerating to the highest in three years from 1.3% growth expected for 2024, as OPEC+ is set to begin unwinding its oil production cuts, a Reuters poll of economists showed earlier this week.
Crude Oil Prices Fall More Than 4% Following Limited Israeli Attack On Iran --At the market opening, oil prices have shown a notable drop of more than 4% in Asian markets following an Israeli attack targeting Iran. Despite the tensions generated by this event, the impact was less severe than anticipated, immediately affecting the crude market. We will analyze the factors behind this decline, the current situation in the Middle East, and the implications for the energy market's future.The Israeli attack, which avoided vital facilities such as nuclear and oil sites in Iran, significantly reduced the uncertainty that had reigned in the previous weeks. In response, Brent prices stabilized around $73 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude dropped to the $68 per barrel range. This downward price movement suggests that investors found reasons to reduce their risk perception in the attack, given that Iran's strategic infrastructures were not directly affected.Despite Iran's threat to retaliate, the fact that the attack avoided critical facilities managed to moderate concerns about a possible significant escalation in the conflict. In recent months, oil prices have seen a considerable increase due to the growing tension between Israel and Iran, exacerbated by ongoing operations against factions like Hamas and Hezbollah. However, this episode seems to have reduced the likelihood of a larger-scale confrontation, at least in the short term.The situation in the Middle East remains volatile, as Israel has continued its military offensive in the region. Conflicts in key territories have always been a determining factor in the fluctuation of oil prices due to the strategic importance of this area in the global production and supply of crude. Political stability and security in the Middle East are essential to maintaining the steady flow of oil to international markets, and any disruption can have significant consequences for supply and demand. However, the potential for future tensions should not be underestimated. Although the immediate threat appears to have diminished, the situation in the Middle East can change rapidly, affecting energy markets unpredictably. The international community and major energy market players will continue to monitor the region's upcoming developments closely. The presence of non-state actors, such as Hamas and Hezbollah, adds an element of uncertainty, as these groups can influence regional stability. In conclusion, the recent drop in oil prices reflects a temporary reduction in uncertainty following the Israeli attack on Iran, which did not impact the country's most sensitive infrastructures. However, the situation in the Middle East remains a crucial factor in the evolution of the global energy market.
Oil Market Reacts to Israel's Retaliatory Strike - The oil market fell more than $4 on Monday after Israel’s retaliatory strike against Iran on Saturday spared Iranian oil and nuclear facilities. Israel’s response appeared to have been measured as its attack struck missile manufacturing and surface to air missile defense sites across Iran, easing fears of supply disruptions in the region. The crude market gapped lower as it opened down $2.80 at $68.98 and posted a high of $69.00. The market quickly sold off to $67.79 and held some support at that level before further selling pushed the market to a low of $66.92 by mid-morning. The market bounced off its low and settled in a sideways trading range during the remainder of the session. The December WTI contract settled down $4.40 at $67.38 and the December Brent contract settled down $4.63 at $71.42. The product markets ended the session sharply lower, with the heating oil market settling down 10.95 cents at $2.1286 and the RB market settling down 11.21 cents at $1.9664. Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson, Esmaeil Baghaei, said Iran will “use all available tools” to respond to Israel’s weekend attack on military targets in Iran. Iran previously played down Israel’s air attack on Saturday, saying it caused only limited damage. On Sunday, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said that Iranian officials should determine how best to demonstrate Iran’s power to Israel, adding that the Israeli attack should “neither be downplayed nor exaggerated”. Israel’s military said Israeli jets completed three waves of strikes before dawn on Saturday against missile factories and other sites near Tehran and in western Iran. Meanwhile, U.S. President Joe Biden called for a halt to escalation that has raised fears of an all-out war in the Middle East. Also, U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin warned Iran against responding to Israel’s strikes on military sites in Iran and said he stressed in a call to his Israeli counterpart the opportunities to de-escalate tensions in the region.According to separate assessments by two American researchers, commercial satellite imagery showed that Israeli airstrikes hit buildings during an attack on Saturday that Iran used for mixing solid fuel for ballistic missiles. They said that Israel struck Parchin, a massive military complex near Tehran. Israel also hit Khojir, a missile production site near Tehran. The Israeli military said three waves of Israeli jets struck missile factories and other sites near Tehran and in western Iran early on Saturday in retaliation for Tehran’s October 1st missile attack against Israel.Saudi Arabia’s Foreign Ministry said Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan discussed in a phone call with his Iranian counterpart Abbas Araqchi the importance of avoiding anything that might destabilize the region’s security following Israel’s strikes on Iran on Saturday.IIR Energy said U.S. oil refiners are expected to shut in about 599,000 bpd of capacity in the week ending November 1st, raising available refining capacity by 269,000 bpd. Offline capacity is expected to fall to 454,000 bpd in the week ending November 8th.Trans Mountain said it will shut the Puget Sound Pipeline from Laurel to Anacortes, Washington for about seven days in mid-November to conduct planned maintenance. The 240,000 bpd pipeline carries Canadian crude oil to four refineries.
U.S. oil posts worst day in two years after Israel spares Iran crude facilities - U.S. crude oil sold off more than 6% on Monday, for its worst day in more than two years after Iranian energy facilities were not damaged during Israeli strikes over the weekend. U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures dropped 6.13% to close at $67.38 per barrel for its biggest daily loss since July 12, 2022, when the benchmark shed 7.93%. Futures for global crude benchmark Brent slid 6.09% to settle at $71.42 per barrel. Israel on Saturday attacked Iran's military installations in three provinces in response to Tehran launching ballistic missiles against Israel on Oct. 1.Iranian news agency Tasnim reported that the attack, which the state-owned Islamic Republic News Agency said killed four soldiers, had inflicted "limited" damage. The strike steered clear of oil, nuclear, and civilian infrastructure locations. Iranian oil news network Shana said that Iran's oil industryoperation is "underway normally" with no disruptions.For weeks, markets had braced themselves for an Israeli retaliation following the direct Iranian offensive against the Jewish state earlier this month.. Broader Middle East tensions have continued to rise after the attack on Israel by Iran-backed Hamas on Oct. 7 of last year. Oil markets' key consideration had been a direct engagement between both parties, with concerns of an attack on Iranian oil facilities rising in recent weeks. Iran accounts for up to 4% of global oil supplies, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. "The recent Israel military action is unlikely to be seen by the market as leading to an escalation that impacts oil supply," Citi analysts wrote in a note Monday, cutting the bank's Brent oil forecast by $4 to $70 per barrel over the next three months. Oil markets are also staring at a global oversupply. "With Israel deliberately, and perhaps with some American encouragement, avoiding the targeting of crude oil facilities, the oil market is back to looking at an oversupplied market," Oil production has been increasing not just in key countries such as the U.S., Canada and Brazil, but even among smaller players, such as Argentina and Senegal, he added. "Oil prices will remain under pressure for the rest of this year, it may be difficult to see Brent crude oil prices reaching $80 in the foreseeable future," The risk premium has come off a few dollars per barrel, as the more limited nature of the strikes, including avoiding oil infrastructure, have raised hopes for a de-escalatory pathway, The spotlight will now fall on whether Iran will counter the attack in the coming weeks, which would see risk premiums rise again, Kavonic told CNBC. He noted that the overall trend of the conflict still remains one of escalation, with a high scope for another round of attacks. During a Cabinet meeting on Sunday, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian emphasized Iran's right to react to Israel's attack. "We do not seek war, but we will defend our country and the rights of our people. We will give a proportionate response to the aggression," he said. Market attention will now turn to Hamas‑Israel and Israel‑Hezbollah cease-fire talks that resumed over the weekend, according to Vivek Dhar, director of mining and energy commodities research at Commonwealth Bank of Australia. "Despite Israel's choice of a low‑aggression response to Iran, we have doubts that Israel and Iran's proxies (i.e. Hamas and Hezbollah) are on track for an enduring ceasefire," Dhar wrote in a note. Although the sell-off is a result of relief that Israel did not hit Iranian oil facilities, Rapidan Energy founder Bob McNally suggested that the markets are not out of the woods just yet. "Direct Israel-Iran conflict will likely persist. Israel signaled it is able and willing to target energy and nuclear targets in future strikes," said McNally, who expects prices to remain volatile but range-bound.
Crude Oil Prices Balances After Aggressive Sale -- The oil market saw a rebound on Tuesday following a steep decline in crude oil prices on Monday, which came in the wake of Israel’s recent retaliatory strike on Iran over the weekend. Although Iran’s response remains uncertain, the market currently perceives a reduced supply risk, according to a note from ING. Brent crude rose to $71.32 per barrel, while the U.S. benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) climbed 0.45%, reaching $67.68 per barrel, compared to $67.38 at Monday’s close. In the past month, oil prices had surged on concerns that potential Israeli attacks on Iran’s energy infrastructure could escalate into a broader conflict in the Middle East, home to a large share of global oil resources. On Monday, oil prices dropped over 6% as Israel’s strikes carefully avoided targeting oil and nuclear sites in Iran. The resulting decline in geopolitical risks led to a selloff across oil markets. Despite this, tensions in the Middle East remain high. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian stated that Iran does not seek war but will defend its rights and respond to Israel’s actions if necessary. The recent strength of the U.S. dollar, ahead of upcoming elections, has also contributed to lower oil prices, as a stronger dollar makes oil more expensive for foreign buyers, reducing demand. Meanwhile, the U.S. government’s plan to purchase oil for the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) lent some support to prices. The U.S. Department of Energy’s Office of Petroleum Reserves announced on Monday a new solicitation to buy up to 3 million barrels for SPR delivery between April and May 2025. ING analysts noted that Israel’s selective response potentially leaves room for de-escalation, which could refocus market attention on fundamentals. “Fundamentals are expected to remain bearish through 2025,” ING said. In light of the geopolitical uncertainty, many market participants have turned to options markets to hedge against potential price spikes. The Biden administration intends to procure up to 3 million barrels for the SPR to be delivered to the Bryan Mound site between April and May 2025. So far, the Department of Energy has acquired more than 55 million barrels for the SPR at an average price of $76 per barrel, compared to the $95 per barrel received during emergency sales in 2022.
Oil prices settle down on report of talks to end Lebanon war (Reuters) - Oil prices closed slightly lower on Tuesday, adding to a more than 6% drop in the previous session, on a report that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will hold a meeting for a diplomatic solution to the war in Lebanon. Brent crude futures settled down 30 cents, or 0.4%, at $71.12 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude shed 17 cents, or 0.3%, to $67.21 a barrel. The two benchmarks had gained more than $1 a barrel earlier in the session. Both contracts fell on Monday to their lowest levels since Oct. 1 after Israel's retaliatory strike on Iran at the weekend bypassed Tehran's oil infrastructure. Netanyahu will hold a meeting on Tuesday evening with Israeli ministers and the heads of the country's military and intelligence community about talks for a diplomatic solution to the war in Lebanon, Axios reporter Barak Ravid said on X, citing two sources. Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei said on Monday that Iran will "use all available tools" to respond to Israel's weekend attack. Meanwhile, declining oil demand from China, the world's largest crude oil importer, remains a drag on global oil consumption and prices. Demand will return to normal growth rates after Chinese President Xi Jinping introduces new stimulus measures to the economy, BP CEO Murray Auchincloss told Reuters. The oil market is currently balanced and demand is expected to average 104.5 million barrels per day this year, the CEO of Saudi Arabian oil giant Saudi Aramco said. "Markets tried to stage a modest recovery but continue to be under pressure from lacklustre demand from China and worries about increasing supply," U.S. crude oil stocks fell by 573,000 barrels in the week ended Oct. 25, market sources said, citing American Petroleum Institute figures on Tuesday. Gasoline inventories fell by 282,000 barrels and distillate stocks fell by 1.46 million barrels, they said. U.S. government data is expected on Wednesday morning. Crude oil and gasoline stockpiles in the U.S. were expected to have risen last week, while distillate inventories were expected to have fallen, a preliminary Reuters poll showed on Monday. Meanwhile, the U.S. Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points on Nov. 7, according to all 111 economists in a Reuters poll, with more than a 90% majority predicting another quarter-percentage-point move in December. Lower interest rates cut the cost of borrowing, which can spur economic activity and boost demand for oil.
Oil prices edge down to finish at lowest in seven weeks -Oil futures declined on Tuesday, giving up earlier support a day after suffering their largest daily percentage decline in more than two years, with U.S. and global benchmark prices settling at their lowest in seven weeks. A retaliatory strike by Israel spared Iran's oil facilities and energy infrastructure over the weekend, pressuring prices of oil on Monday. Traders also digested news from the U.S. Energy Department late Monday afternoon, which said it was seeking to buy 3 million barrels of crude to help replenish the Strategic Petroleum Reserve.
- -- West Texas Intermediate crude CL00 for December delivery fell 17 cents, or nearly 0.3%, to settle at $67.21 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange after losing 6.1% on Monday. Prices settled at their lowest since Sept. 10, according to Dow Jones Market Data.
- -- December Brent crude BRNZ24, the global benchmark, lost 30 cents, or 0.4%, at $71.12 a barrel on ICE Futures Europe, the lowest since Sept. 11. The more actively traded January Brent contract fell 27 cents, or 0.4%, to $70.73 a barrel.
- -- November gasoline lost 0.7% to $1.95 a gallon, while November heating oil added 0.2% to $2.13 a gallon.
- -- Natural gas for November delivery settled at $2.35 per million British thermal units, up 1.6% on the contract's expiration day. The December contract, which is now the front month, finished at $2.86, down 0.1%.
Oil futures failed on Tuesday to recoup any of the more than 6% decline they logged a day earlier. News reports suggested that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu appeared set to meet internally with political and military advisers late Tuesday to discuss possible diplomatic approaches to address the fighting between his country and Hezbollah, "While this move helps somewhat ease market concerns for the moment, the geopolitical landscape remains tense in the Middle East after Israel's recent airstrike on Iranian military installations over the weekend," which spared key oil operations, he said. During Monday's selloff, a major chunk of long positions in WTI around the $70-a-barrel level were likely cleared out, but trend and momentum indicators remain solidly negative and futures don't appear oversold yet, leaving room for further short-term weakness as shorts target the $65-a-barrel level, Ipek Ozkardeskaya, senior analyst at Swissquote Bank, said in a note. While there is scope for near-term consolidation, the medium- to long-term dynamics remain tilted to the downside, she said. China is continuing its struggle to boost its economy and there's bad news continuing out of Germany, Europe's largest economy, where Volkswagen may close plants for the first time ever, she said. At the same time, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries appears willing to relax production restrictions, and non-OPEC countries are increasing crude production. Analysts at Sevens Report Research, meanwhile, wrote Tuesday that the main reason oil dropped so sharply Monday was because traders' "fears that Israel may target Iranian oil or energy infrastructure weren't realized and Israel's response was clearly met to deescalate the situation." Even when oil was trading against a backdrop of elevated geopolitical tensions, concerns about the health of the global economy, specifically China, and lower demand and the looming threat of increasing support out of OPEC+ later this year pressured prices, they said. In related news, the U.S. Energy Department said late Monday it would take bids for up to 3 million barrels of oil for delivery to the Strategic Petroleum Reserve's Bryan Mound site in Texas from April through May. The department said it had bought more than 55 million barrels to date to replenish the reserve at an average price of around $76 a barrel, compared with the $95 a barrel it received for emergency sales from the reserve in 2022 in response to spiking crude prices following Russia's invasion of Ukraine. The department said it would continue to buy oil at $79 a barrel or less to refill the reserve, "taking into account planned exchange returns and market developments." Traders also looked ahead to Wednesday's weekly update on U.S. petroleum supplies. On average, analysts expect the report from the Energy Information Administration to show a climb of 800,000 barrels in domestic commercial crude supplies for the week that ended Oct. 25, according to a survey by S&P Global Commodity Insights. They also forecast inventory declines of 1.1 million barrels for gasoline and 1.4 million barrels for distillates.
U.S. crude oil edges lower after worst day in two years --U.S. crude oil edged lower on Tuesday, one day after posting the worst daily loss in two years.Energy traders have breathed a sigh of relief this week after Israel's long-anticipated retaliatory strikes on Iran last Friday spared the Islamic Republic's oil and nuclear facilities. The benchmark U.S. crude oil contract sold off more than 6%, or $4.40, to $67.38 per barrel on Monday.But oil prices are too cheap in the near term compared with fundamentals, Goldman Sachs analyst Daan Struyven told CNBC's "Squawk Box" on Tuesday, citing demand from refilling the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve as well as from the airline industry. Here are Tuesday's closing energy prices:
- West Texas Intermediate December contract: $67.21 per barrel, down 17 cents, or 0.25%. Year to date, U.S. crude oil is down about 6%.
- Brent December contract: $71.12 per barrel, down 30 cents, or 0.42%. Year to date, the global benchmark has fallen more than 7%.
- RBOB Gasoline November contract: $1.9518 per gallon, down 0.74%. Year to date, gasoline has pulled back about 7%.
- Natural Gas November contract: $2.346 per thousand cubic feet, up 1.6%. Year to date, gas has lost more than 6%.
Goldman Sachs expects the price of Brent to recover to $77 per barrel in the fourth quarter even without any oil supply disruptions in the Middle East. The risks, however, are skewed to the downside in 2025, Struyven said. Demand is soft in China, U.S. production is robust and OPEC+ has plans to bring crude back to the market in December.
Big bets on oil prices soaring turn worthless as Iran risk fades Traders who piled into bullish options bets on oil prices at record pace are waking up to a harsh reality: Most of those contracts are now worthless. Israel refrained from striking Iran’s energy infrastructure in its long-awaited bombardment of the Opec nation over the weekend, sending crude prices crashing on Oct 28. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) plummeted 6.1 per cent to near US$67 a barrel, the biggest one-day drop for the US benchmark in more than two years. Brent slid 6.1 per cent to settle below US$72 a barrel.Oil prices were little changed on Oct 29. Brent climbed 4 US cents to US$71.46, while WTI was down 1 US cent at US$67.37. The plunge in oil prices has helped contribute to a chunk of about 800,000 Brent December call options expiring without a profit on Oct 28 as traders’ urge to protect against a price spike evaporates.Much of the trading around the risks from the Middle East conflict in October has happened in options markets, outpacing action in futures prices. Speculation that the attacks could disrupt oil flows in a region that produces about a third of the world’s crude drove the total number of Brent options held by investors to a record high.Of the contracts expiring on Oct 28, fewer than 10 per cent had any value. That means that roughly 32 million barrels of US$90 and US$100 call options that were purchased since Iran attacked Israel earlier in October – triggering Israel’s vow for retaliation – were effectively wasted.Almost 22 million barrels of US$75 calls were worth about US$35 million on Oct 25, while nearly 53 million barrels worth of US$80 calls were worth about US$22 million at that time. Both expired worthless on Oct 28.Traders use options as a way to hedge their exposure to their physical operations such as producing or consuming oil, while others use them as a relatively cheap way to bet on the direction or volatility in prices.“The real fear of oil being taken off the world market has been nearly eliminated,” said Mr Dennis Kissler, senior vice-president for trading at BOK Financial Securities. Traders are refocusing on weak demand, with near-term oil prices taking the path of least resistance lower, he added.Oil’s slump comes ahead of a crucial few weeks for prices, with a host of influential events looming, including the US election. Opec+ plans to start gradually reviving oil production in December and the market is watching for any change to that timeline. Though the planned output increase in the near term is small, it will add supplies to a market that the International Energy Agency forecasts will not need. Last week, hedge funds slashed their long-only positions in WTI to the lowest in 14 years.
WTI Holds Gains After Gasoline Stocks Hit 2-Year-Low (As Pump-Prices Plunge?) -Oil prices are higher this morning after a two-day decline on the possibility of more attacks in the Middle East and potentially tightening US crude stockpiles.While one Israeli minister suggested that the war with Hezbollah could be over by year-end, the country’s military chief vowed to strike Iran “very hard” should the OPEC producer launch another attack.“We think the oil market has relaxed too quickly,” Standard Chartered analysts including Emily Ashford said in a note.“We see the risk of an escalating series of attacks over an extended period, with no immediate prospect of either military or diplomatic resolution.”Additionally, all eyes are on OPEC+’s plans to gradually revive production from December, with traders split on whether the alliance will press ahead. Reuters reported that OPEC+ nations could delay plans to revive oil production in December, citing unidentified sources. But more notable for now is what local demand and supply looks like... API
- Crude -573k
- Cushing +320k
- Gasoline -282k
- Distillates -1.463mm
DOE
- Crude -515k
- Cushing +681k
- Gasoline -2.707mm
- Distillates -977k
The official data shows a major decline in gasoline stocks and small draw in crude inventories...Total Gasoline stocks fell to their lowest since Nov 2022... The addition of 1.189mm barrels to the SPR moved total crude stocks up by 674k barrels last week... US crude production remains at record highs 13.5mm b/d... WTI is holding above $68 after the data, still well down on the week...
Reports That OPEC+ May Delay a Planned Output Increase - The oil market retraced some of its previous losses following reports that OPEC+ may delay a planned output increase and the unexpected draw in crude and gasoline stocks. The crude market posted a low of $67.28 in overnight trading and never looked back. The market was well supported by the news that OPEC could delay a planned oil production increase of 180,000 bpd in December by a month or more because of concern over low demand and increasing supply. The market was further supported in light of the EIA’s weekly petroleum stock report showing an unexpected draw in crude stocks of 515,000 barrels and a large draw in gasoline stocks of over 2.7 million barrels on the week. The crude market partially backfilled Monday’s opening gap as it posted a high of $69.14 by mid-day. The market later settled in a sideways trading range during the remainder of the session. The December WTI contract settled up $1.40 at $68.61 and the December Brent contract settled up $1.43 at $72.55. The product markets ended the session sharply higher following the inventory report, with the heating oil market settling up 5.39 cents at $2.1876 and the RB market settling up 4.39 cents at $1.9957. The EIA said U.S. gasoline stockpiles fell unexpectedly last week to a two-year low on strengthened demand, while crude inventories also posted a surprise drawdown as imports fell. Gasoline stocks fell by 2.7 million barrels in the week ending October 25th to 210.9 million barrels, their lowest since November 2021. Gasoline supplied, increased to 9.2 million bpd from 8.8 million bpd a week earlier and marked its highest level since the week ending October 4th. Crude stocks fell by 515,000 barrels to 425.5 million barrels, compared with expectations for a 2.3 million barrel increase.Axios reported that U.S. President Joe Biden’s senior advisers Amos Hochstein and Brett McGurk will arrive in Israel on Thursday to try to close a deal that would end the war in Lebanon. According to Axios, Israeli and U.S. officials said a deal that would end the fighting between Israel and Hezbollah could be achieved within a few weeks. The President Biden’s advisers are expected to meet with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu, Defense Minister Yoav Gallant and Minister for Strategic Affairs Ron Dermer. Separately, two sources stated that U.S. mediators are working on a proposal to wind down hostilities between Israel’s military and Lebanese armed group Hezbollah, beginning with a 60-day ceasefire. The sources said the two-month period would be used to finalize full implementation of United Nations Security Council Resolution 1701, adopted in 2006 to keep southern Lebanon free of arms that do not belong to the Lebanese state.Three sources said OPEC+ could delay a planned increase in oil production scheduled to take effect in December by a month or more, citing concern about soft oil demand and increasing supply. The planned 180,000 bpd hike in December, which is scheduled to come from the eight OPEC+ members who have been making the group’s most recent layer of output cuts, was already delayed from October amid falling prices. A decision to postpone the hike could come as early as next week. OPEC+ is scheduled to meet on December 1st to decide its next policy steps.IIR Energy reported that U.S. oil refiners are expected to shut in about 670,000 bpd of capacity offline in the week ending November 1st, raising available refining capacity by 198,000 bpd. Offline capacity is expected to fall to 554,000 bpd in the week ending November 8th.
Oil prices rise 1% after boost from US fuel demand - Oil prices gained 1% on Thursday after rallying the previous day on stronger than expected U.S. fuel demand and reports that producer group OPEC+ could delay a planned output increase. Traders are also awaiting the outcome of the U.S. presidential election on Nov. 5 and whether ceasefires can be brokered in the Middle East.Brent futures rose by 75 cents, or 1%, to $73.30 a barrel by 1320 GMT. WTI futures were up 91 cents, or 1.3%, at $69.52.Both contracts gained more than 2% on Wednesday.U.S. gasoline stockpiles fell more than expected to a two-year low in the week ending Oct. 25, the Energy Information Administration said, while crude inventories registered a surprise drawdown as imports slipped.“The surprise decline in U.S. gasoline stockpiles provided a buying opportunity as demand appeared stronger than anticipated,” . Further support came from a potential delay to planned OPEC+ oil production increases from December by a month or more because of concern over soft oil demand and rising supply.A decision could come as early as next week, Reuters reported. OPEC+ is scheduled to meet on Dec. 1 to decide its next policy steps.Elsewhere, manufacturing activity in China, the world’s biggest oil importer, expanded in October for the first time in six months, suggesting stimulus measures are having an effect.Brent and WTI futures had fallen by more than 6% on Monday on reduced risk of Iran’s direct involvement in the wider Middle East conflict and negotiators are now pushing for ceasefires in Lebanon and Gaza.With ebbing fears of war in the Middle East spreading further, market attention has turned back to expectations for deteriorating global oil balances in 2025, when supply is expected to exceed demand, said Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank.
Reports That Iran is Preparing a Retaliatory Attack on Israel - The oil market saw a late day rally on reports that Iran is preparing a retaliatory attack on Israel. Early in the session, the market continued to trade higher in follow through strength seen on Wednesday and backfilled more of Monday’s opening gap. The market remained well supported by reports of OPEC+ possibly delaying a planned output increase from December by a month or more due to concerns over demand and increasing supply. It was also supported by stronger than expected U.S. fuel demand following the EIA report, which showed an unexpected draw in gasoline stocks. The crude market posted a low of $68.30 in overnight trading. However, the market bounced off that level and continued to backfill Monday’s opening gap as it rallied to $69.76 by mid-day. The market later erased some of its gains and traded in a sideways trading range ahead of the close. The December WTI contract settled up 65 cents at $69.26. However, the market later extended its gains to over $2 and completely backfilled its gap as it posted a high of $70.66 in the post settlement period on the Iranian news. The December Brent contract settled up 61 cents at $73.16. Meanwhile, the product markets ended the session higher, with the heating oil market settling up 3.19 cents at $2.2195 and the RB market settling up 78 points at $2.0035. Axios reported that Israeli intelligence suggests Iran is preparing to attack Israel from Iraqi territory in the coming days, possibly before the U.S. presidential election on Tuesday, November 5th. It reported that the attack is expected to be carried out from Iraq using a large number of drones and ballistic missiles. Axios reported that carrying out the attack through pro-Iran militias in Iraq could be an attempt by Iran to avoid another Israeli attack against strategic targets in Iran.Senior U.S. officials are in Israel discussing a draft agreement to end the war in Lebanon. The deal includes an agreement between the U.S. and Israel that would allow Israeli forces to strike Lebanon during a 60-day interim period in response to imminent threats. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu told U.S. envoys that Israel’s ability to counter threats to its security from Lebanon and return displaced people to the north were key elements of any ceasefire deal with Lebanon.The EIA reported that U.S. oil production in August increased by 1.5% to a monthly record high of 13.4 million bpd, up from 13.2 million bpd in July. That surpassed the previous record high of 13.3 million bpd in December 2023. It reported that oil production in Texas in August increased by 1.7% on the month to record monthly high of 5.8 million bpd, while output in New Mexico increased by 2.8% on the month to record high of 2.1 million bpd. Oil output in North Dakota increased by 11,000 bpd on the month. The EIA reported that U.S. crude oil exports fell to 3.907 million bpd in August from 4.193 million bpd in July. Meanwhile, total refined oil product exports in August increased to 3.546 million bpd from 3.063 million bpd in July. U.S. total oil demand in August fell by 0.3% or 57,000 bpd to 20.711 million bpd, with gasoline demand increasing by 0.25 or 14,000 bpd to 9.258 million bpd and distillate demand falling by 4.4% or 177,000 bpd to 3.875 million bpd.
Oil prices end higher as risk of Iranian strike on Israel grows WTI, Brent crude log first monthly gain since June - Oil futures finished higher on Thursday, contributing to a gain for the month, as traders weighed the growing risk of an Iranian attack on Israel that would further fuel tensions in the oil-rich Middle East.Prices have also found support after data this week revealed strength in U.S. fuel demand and news reports indicated the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries might delay a plan to scale back production cuts.
- -- West Texas Intermediate crude for December delivery rose 65 cents, or about 1%, to settle at $69.26 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, with the contract ending 1.6% higher for the month.
- -- December Brent crude, the global benchmark, added 61 cents, or 0.8%, to $73.16 a barrel on ICE Futures Europe, with the contract settling 1.9% higher for the month on its expiration day. The January contract, which is now the front month, rose 65 cents, or 0.9%, to $72.81 a barrel.
- -- November gasoline added 0.4% to $2 a gallon, for a monthly rise of 2.1%, while November heating oil HOX24 climbed 1.5% to $2.22 a gallon, up 4.1% for the month. The November contracts expired at the end of the session.
- -- Natural gas for December delivery settled at $2.71 per million British thermal units, down nearly 4.9% for the session and 7.4% for the month.
For the month, geopolitical volatility drove oil-market movements, WTI and Brent oil ended higher for the month but were trading lower week to date. "You never know how much risk premium is really in the commodity until it comes out," he said, attributing the selloff to "risk-premium erosion" after Israel did not target Iranian oil facilities in its retaliatory attack.But that erosion in risk premium may be a "short-sighted view" given U.S. sanctions on the Iranian crude-oil export market and its "'ghost fleet' of crude carriers," Polyak said.There is also speculation that Iran is preparing an attack in response to Israel's recent strike on Iran, following a report from Axios, which said an attack could come within days."People may be meaningfully underappreciating the supply-disruption risks if there is continued escalation," Polyak said. While the major producers known as OPEC+ do have "spare capacity to backfill disruptions, it's not something that happens instantly," he said, estimating that it would take at least six months to offset potential supply disruptions that could pose sharp upside risk to crude oil prices. Oil prices in electronic trading Thursday afternoon headed even higher on the potential for an Iranian strike on Israel.Prices had gained on Wednesday in the wake of data that showed a rise in weekly demand for U.S. gasoline and across-the-board declines for petroleum inventories.OPEC and its allies are scheduled to begin unwinding some production curbs in December but could delay their output hike by a month or more because of concern about soft oil demand and rising supplies, Reuters reported Wednesday, citing three sources.In the immediate near term, the outlook for oil demand will be "determined by Chinese refinery run cuts and underlying economic health as well as fears of global economic health," Polyak said. "However, it seems like as we head into the winter, that China should be turning a corner given the announced stimulus [and] liquidity actions taken."In the U.S., economic data were mixed, as GDP growth came in at a lower-than-expected 2.8% annual pace in the third quarter, "implying weaker underlying economic growth," although ADP employment numbers were much stronger, with a 233,000 increase in new jobs month over month, which is "inflationary for the jobs market," Polyak said.Whoever wins the U.S. presidential election will have a "bigger impact on crude oil depending on their foreign policy, especially towards Russia, Iran and China - as well as their domestic policy on drilling on federal acreage or investment incentives," he said. Meanwhile, natural-gas futures settled lower after the Energy Information Administration reported Thursday that U.S. supplies of the fuel rose by 78 billion cubic feet for the week that ended Oct. 25. Analysts surveyed by S&P Global Commodity Insights expected an increase of 82 bcf, on average.
Oil gains more than $2 after settlement on reports Iran preparing Israel attack (Reuters) - Oil prices extended gains after settlement on Thursday, rising by more than $2 per barrel on a report that Iran is preparing to attack Israel from Iraqi territory in the coming days.WTI crude oil futures jumped $2.15 or 3.13% to $70.76 after settlement at 3:22 p.m. EDT, and Brent futures for January delivery jumped by $2.10 or 2.91% to $74.26.Brent crude futures settled up 61 cents, or 0.84%, to $73.16 a barrel. Brent futures for December delivery expired on Thursday. The more actively traded January contract settled at $72.81. WTI futures settled up 65 cents, or 0.95%, at $69.26.Israeli intelligence suggests Iran is preparing to attack Israel from Iraqi territory in the coming days, possibly before the U.S. presidential election on Nov. 5, Axios reported on Thursday, citing two unidentified Israeli sources.The attack is expected to be carried out from Iraq using a large number of drones and ballistic missiles, the Axios report added. The report said that carrying out the attack through pro-Iran militias in Iraq could be an attempt by Tehran to avoid another Israeli attack against strategic targets in Iran.“This is putting back on the table the possibility that Israel may give an attack on Iran another go,” said Phil Flynn, senior analyst at Price Futures Group, warning that Iranian infrastructure may not be off-limits in an attack.Iran is an OPEC member with production of around 3.2 million barrels per day or 3% of global output.The week began with a large selloff with Brent and WTI futures falling more than 6% on Monday after Israel showed some restraint in its retaliatory attacks on Iran over the weekend.The possibility that OPEC+ would delay a planned oil output increase also supported prices on Thursday.A decision could come as early as next week, Reuters reported. OPEC+ is scheduled to meet on Dec. 1 to decide its next policy steps.In China, the world's biggest oil importer, manufacturing activity expanded in October for the first time in six months, suggesting stimulus measures are having an effect."Several international events have converged at the turn of the month that could see oil markets in for a bumpy ride in early November," said Rystad Energy's Sahdev, citing the U.S. election, a continually weak Chinese demand outlook, OPEC+ uncertainty and the war in the Middle East.
Oil Prices Jump Sharply Due To Preparations For New Strike On Israel - Belarusian News –Oil prices continued to rise on Friday, November 1, rising by more than $1 per barrel. This was reported by Reuters. Brent crude futures rose by $1.39, or 1.9%, to $74.20 per barrel. At the same time, American WTI (West Texas Intermediate) rose in price by $1.44, or 2.1%, to $70.70.Prices increased amid reports from Israeli intelligence, which believes that Iran may attack Israel in the coming days. The strike is allegedly planned to be carried out from Iraqi territory. A large number of ballistic missiles and UAVs may be used for it.At the same time, analysts note that both the Islamic Republic and Israel do not want a full-scale war to start. This means that the new blow will most likely be limited. Oil prices were also affected by expectations regarding the decision of OPEC+ countries to postpone the planned increase in production of “black gold” in December. This step was allegedly taken due to concerns about the relatively low demand for oil.
Oil prices settle up slightly on Iran worries, but prices down for week (Reuters) - Oil prices edged up on Friday on reports Iran was preparing a retaliatory strike on Israel from Iraq in coming days, but record U.S. output weighed on prices. Brent futures were up 29 cents, or 0.4%, to settle at $73.10 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude gained 23 cents, or 0.3%, to settle at $69.49. At their session highs, both benchmarks were up over $2 a barrel. Brent posted a weekly decline of about 4% with WTI down about 3%. On Thursday, U.S. news website Axios reported that Israeli intelligence suggests that Iran is preparing to attack Israel from Iraq within days, citing two unidentified Israeli sources. "Any additional responses from Iran might remain restrained, similar to Israel's limited strike last weekend, hence primarily intended as a demonstration of strength rather than an invitation to open warfare," . Iran and Israel have engaged in a series of tit-for-tat strikes within the broader Middle East warfare set off by fighting in Gaza. Previous Iranian air attacks on Israel on Oct. 1 and in April were mostly repelled, with only minor damage. Iran is a member of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and produced about 4 million barrels per day (bpd) of oil in 2023, U.S. Energy Information Administration data showed. Iran was on track to export around 1.5 million bpd in 2024, up from an estimated 1.4 million bpd in 2023, according to analysts and U.S. government reports. Iran backs several groups that are currently fighting Israel, including Hezbollah in Lebanon, Hamas in Gaza and the Houthis in Yemen. A U.S. official asked Lebanon to declare a unilateral ceasefire with Israel to revive stalled talks to end Israeli-Hezbollah hostilities, a senior Lebanese political source and a senior diplomat said - a claim denied by both sides. Oil prices were also supported by expectations OPEC+ could delay December's planned increase to oil production by a month or more on concern over soft oil demand and rising supply. A decision could be made as early as next week. OPEC+ includes OPEC and its allies like Russia and Kazakhstan. As OPEC+ holds back on production, U.S. oil major Exxon Mobil said its global output hit an all-time high, while Chevron (CVX.N), opens new tab said its U.S. production hit a record high. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said this week that drillers pulled a record 13.5 million barrels per day (bpd) of oil out of the ground. EIA also said this week that output in August hit a record 13.4 million bpd, and has said that annual output was on track to hit a record 13.2 million bpd in 2024 and 13.5 million bpd in 2025. U.S. job growth almost stalled in October as labor strikes in the aerospace industry depressed manufacturing employment while hurricanes impacted the response rate for the payrolls survey, making it hard to get a clear picture of the labor market ahead of next week's presidential election. Polls show the U.S. presidential race is a toss-up between Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris or Republican former President Donald Trump as the country's next president. Economists said they expect the U.S. Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 25 basis points next Thursday. After hiking rates aggressively in 2022 and 2023 to tame a surge in inflation, the Fed started to lower rates in September. Lower rates decrease borrowing costs, which can boost economic growth and demand for oil.
Iran Says Israel's Attack Killed Four Iranian Soldiers, Damaged Radar Systems - The Israeli airstrikes on Iran that were launched Saturday morning killed four Iranian soldiers, members of Iran’s Air Defense Force.The Iranian Army said in a statement that the soldiers lost their lives “while confronting the projectiles of the criminal Zionist regime in order to safeguard the security of Iran and prevent harm to the Iranian nation and interests.”The Iranian military said the Israeli attack hit bases in three Iranian provinces: Ilam, Khuzestan, and Tehran. The New York Times and other Western media outlets reported that the Israeli strikes destroyed several air defense systems, but the Iranian military only confirmed that some radar systems were damaged and said it successfully countered the attack.“Thanks to the timely performance of the country’s air defenses, the attacks caused limited damage, and a few radar systems were damaged,” the Iranian military said, according to Al Jazeera.It’s unclear at this point if Iran will retaliate and launch another missile attack on Israel. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said Sunday that Iran doesn’t seek war but warned there would be some sort of response.“We do not seek war but we will defend the rights of our nation and country,” Pezeshkian said. He added that Iran “will give an appropriate response to the aggression of the Zionist regime.”Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei said Iranian officials will determine how to respond. “How to convey this power and resolve of the Iranian nation to the Zionist regime is for our officials to determine, and what is in the best interest of the nation and the country should be done,” he said.
Khamenei warns Israel, US of ‘crushing response’ for actions against Iran -Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has warned Israel and the United States of “a crushing response” for actions against Iran and its allies, according to state media. Khamenei, 85, made the remarks on Saturday while addressing students ahead of the anniversary of the 1979 takeover of the US embassy in Tehran by hardline students – which cemented the decades-long enmity between Tehran and Washington that persists today. “The enemies, whether the Zionist regime or the United States of America, will definitely receive a crushing response to what they are doing to Iran and the Iranian nation and to the resistance front,” Khamenei said in the capital, Tehran, also referring to Iran-aligned armed groups that include Yemen’s Houthis, Lebanon’s Hezbollah and the Palestinian Hamas.The supreme leader did not elaborate on the timing of any attack, or the scope.He had previously struck a more cautious approach, saying officials would weigh Iran’s response and that Israel’s attack “should not be exaggerated nor downplayed”, after the Israeli military launched strikes last week on military bases in Iran, hitting about 20 sites over several hours in Ilam, Khuzestan and Tehran.Israel said the strikes were a response to attacks from “Iran and its proxies”.Khamenei on Saturday met with university students to mark Students’ Day, which commemorates a November 4, 1978, incident in which Iranian soldiers opened fire on students protesting the rule of the shah at Tehran University.The crowd greeted Khamenei with enthusiastic cheers, chanting, “The blood in our veins is a gift to our leader!”Israel has said its air strikes on Iran on October 26 were in retaliation for a major ballistic missile attack by Tehran on October 1.The Iranian attack, which involved about 200 missiles, was launched after Israeli assaults in recent months that killed leaders of Hezbollah, Hamas and the Iranian military.Israel has warned Iran against retaliating, while Tehran, stating it does not seek war, has promised to respond.“If Iran makes the mistake of launching another missile barrage at Israel, we will once again know how to reach Iran … and strike very, very hard,” said Israel’s military chief Lieutenant General Herzi Halevi earlier this week, adding that certain targets had been set aside “because we may be required to do this again”.Any further attacks from either side risk drawing the region – already on edge due to Israel’s wars in Gaza and Lebanon – into a wider regional conflict, just days ahead of the US presidential election on Tuesday.The US military operates throughout the Middle East, with some troops now manning a Terminal High Altitude Area Defense, or THAAD, battery in Israel.US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin “ordered the deployment of additional ballistic missile defense destroyers, fighter squadron and tanker aircraft, and several US Air Force B-52 long-range strike bombers to the region,” Pentagon spokesman Major-General Pat Ryder said on Friday.Austin “continues to make clear that should Iran, its partners, or its proxies use this moment to target American personnel or interests in the region, the United States will take every measure necessary to defend our people”, Ryder said in a statement.
Report: US Was Prepared To Rescue Israeli Pilots Attacking Iran If Needed - The US placed a fleet of fighter jets in the Middle East on stand-by to rescue Israeli pilots if their attack on Iran failed, Israel’s Army Radio reported on Sunday.“Israel and the US coordinated a plan to ensure the safe extraction of pilots should the operation have not succeeded,” the report said, according to Turkey’s Anadolu Agency.The report said the US didn’t participate directly in the attack but was prepared to intervene for a rescue mission. “The Americans’ advanced capabilities in the region would allow them to carry out a rescue operation,” it said.The US also supported the attack, which was carried out early Saturday, by pledging to defend Israel from any Iranian retaliation and deploying a THAAD missile system for that purpose. Israeli officials said that around 100 Israeli fighter jets, spy planes, and refueling tankers were involved in the operation. The main fighter jet was the US-made F-35.Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said the US was responsible for the attack since it provided Israel with an “air corridor” for its jets to launch the airstrikes, which killed at least four Iranian soldiers.“The Americans gave the Zionist air force an air corridor, and the defense facilities they sent them before can be considered collaboration with the recent operation. We consider that America’s collaboration with the Zionist entity to create tension in the region is something very clear,” Araghchi said. Iranian officials said the Israeli jets launched the strikes from US-controlled Iraqi airspace. Kataib Hezbollah, an Iraqi Shia militia that’s allied with Iran, has said the US must “pay” for letting the Israeli jets use Iraqi airspace.“America must pay the price for their recklessness in using Iraqi airspace, and this will happen, with God’s help, at the right time and place,” the group said in a statement, according to Rudaw. “They will certainly dare to attack Iraq if they do not pay a heavy price for their aggression.” The US support for the Israeli attack on Iran could lead to attacks on US bases in Iraq and Syria. If Iran chooses to retaliate by launching another missile attack on Israel, the 100 US troops deployed in Israel with the THAAD system could be potential targets.
Israeli Forces Leave Trail of Destruction at Kamal Adwan Hospital in Northern Gaza - On Saturday, Israeli forces withdrew from the Kamal Adwan Hospital in Beit Lahia, northern Gaza, leaving a trail of destruction in their wake. Israeli forces pulled out of the area after a siege on the hospital that lasted over 20 days. Israeli tanks fired on the hospital before troops stormed the facility and detained dozens of staff members and some patients.“We were surrounded from all sides. There was shooting from all directions with bombs and mortars,” said Mayssoun Alian, a nurse at Kamal Adwan.Medics said at least two children died in the Intensive Care Unit on Friday after Israeli fire hit generators and oxygen tanks at the hospital. The Israeli attack also killed the son of Dr. Hussam Abu Safia, the hospital’s director.“Everything we built, they have burned. They have burned our hearts. They killed my son,” Abu Safia said.
Gaza Ceasefire Talks Resume in Qatar But Progress Not Expected - On Monday, officials from the US, Israel, Egypt, and Qatar resumed talks on a Gaza ceasefire in Doha, but no progress is expected to be made toward a resolution ahead of the US presidential election on November 5.Sources told The New York Times that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is waiting to see who will succeed President Biden before making any diplomatic commitments. He has also made clear he has no intention of ending the genocidal war on Gaza, repeatedly saying he would only agree to a temporary truce that would allow Israel to resume military operations.Hamas’s position has been that any deal must include a permanent ceasefire and the withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza. But Netanyahu has insisted on keeping troops in Gaza, and his demand to maintain control of the Philadelphi Corridor on the Gaza-Egypt border sabotaged the last round of negotiations. Earlier this month, Haaretz reported that the Israeli government wasn’t interested in new ceasefire talks and was instead focused on pursuing the annexation of territory in Gaza. Since then, Israeli forces have killed Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar, prompting the US to ask for new truce talks.While Israel agreed to hold new talks, its military operations in Gaza have been relentless. Israeli forces are laying siege to northern Gaza as part of anethnic cleansing campaign following an outline known as the “general’s plan,” which calls for the forcible displacement of Palestinian civilians from the north and the extermination of anyone who stays behind.
Hamas Rejects Ceasefire Proposal That Would Keep Israeli Troops In Gaza - Hamas has rejected a ceasefire proposal that would have brought the release of a small number of Israeli captives and a 30-day cessation of hostilities, but no withdrawal of Israeli forces from the Gaza Strip. Sources close to the Palestinian group told Middle East Eye that they had officially dismissed the proposal put forward by Qatar, Egypt and the US, despite reports in Israeli media that it was still under consideration. Hamas has been adamant that any ceasefire deal must eventually lead to the total withdrawal of Israeli forces from the Gaza Strip. Egypt and Qatar have been acting as mediators between Israel and Hamas for months. In November, a prisoner swap deal led to the release of about 100 Israeli captives in exchange for about 240 Palestinian detainees. The first phase of the new proposed deal would have seen between 11 and 14 Israelis - including women and elderly - released in exchange for an unspecified number of Palestinian detainees and a 30-day ceasefire. Despite the current proposals being an apparent non-starter, officials told Israeli news outlet Maariv that American officials involved in the talks were hoping for a ceasefire deal before the US election on November 5.On October 5, the Israeli military launched a new offensive in northern Gaza. It followed the controversial “Generals' Plan”, proposed to the Israeli government, which aims to empty northern Gaza to establish a "closed military zone", an act that rights groups have said would amount to ethnic cleansing. According to the plan, anyone who stays would be labelled a Hamas operative and could be killed. The UN agency for Palestinian refugees, Unrwa, estimates that about 400,000 people remain in northern Gaza, including Gaza City. Since Israel's war in Gaza began nearly 13 months ago, Israeli forces have reported killed more than 43,000 Palestinians and wounded more than 100,000. More than 10,000 are missing and presumed dead under the rubble. Gaza health sources say at least 17,000 children and nearly 12,000 women are among the deceased. 0 Loading...
Palestinians ‘starving to death’ in northern Gaza due to Israeli siege -- The struggle to survive continues in northern Gaza as Israel’s devastating siege and bombing of the area enters its 23rd day. An Oxfam official told Al Jazeera on Sunday Israel is using starvation as a weapon in its genocide against the Palestinians and that the United Kingdom-based NGO was unable to reach people in the north because of Israel’s ongoing bombing campaign. Mahmoud Alsaqqa, who is Oxfam’s food security and livelihood lead in Gaza, warned that some Palestinians are “starving to death” from hunger in northern Gaza and more people will die in the coming days. “There is nothing. You are talking about tens of days that they are not receiving any supplies,” he said, adding that most Palestinians in the area rely on aid supplies. Aid agencies say about 96 percent of Gaza’s population is facing high levels of food shortages. According to UNICEF, nine out of 10 children lack the nutrition they need for growth and development. At least 37 children have died of malnutrition or dehydration in a year of war. The United Nations says Israel has blocked the entry of 83 percent of food aid into the Strip since the war began. It said about 50,000 children below the age of five need urgent treatment for malnutrition by the end of the year. On Sunday, UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres called for an immediate ceasefire, for the release of captives and “accountability for crimes under international law”. “The devastation and deprivation resulting from Israel’s military operations in North Gaza are making the conditions of life untenable for the Palestinian population there,” he said on X. “This conflict continues to be waged with little regard for the requirements of international humanitarian law.” The Oxfam warning came as Israeli forces bombed more neighbourhoods in northern Gaza on Sunday and humanitarian officials sounded alarm about the ongoing ground assault by Israeli forces which is forcibly displacing tens of thousands of residents out of the area. At least 35 people were killed in Beit Lahiya on Saturday after the Israeli army targeted five buildings in the north of the Strip. Another 10 people were killed in a separate attack in Beit Lahiya. Israel’s strikes on the towns of Jabalia, Beit Hanoon and Beit Lahiya in northern Gaza have so far killed about 800 Palestinians during the ongoing siege, the Ministry of Health in Gaza said. Al Jazeera’s Hani Mahmoud, reporting from Deir el-Balah in central Gaza, said at least 35 people are missing and are feared to be under the rubble, or have been “vapourised” by the force of the Israeli bombs. Additionally, an Israeli air strike on a house in Jabalia killed several people and wounded others on Sunday morning, Palestinian medics said. “People were told to evacuate the Jabalia refugee camp in order to avoid being bombed, but by the time they got to areas far from Jabalia in the central and western parts of northern Gaza, they were bombed and maimed in the areas they were told to evacuate to,” said Mahmoud. “The Israeli soldiers are forcing people to get out of evacuation centres and setting them on fire,” he added. Francesca Albanese, the UN special rapporteur on the occupied Palestinian territories, said on social media platform X that “the entire population of Gaza is at risk of dying in a genocide that has been announced and executed under our watch”. Albanese was responding to a statement made by UN humanitarian chief Joyce Msuya on Saturday, warning that “the entire population of north Gaza is at risk of dying” under Israel’s siege. The International Committee of the Red Cross on Saturday said the ongoing Israeli evacuation orders and restrictions on the entry of essential supplies to the north had left the civilian population in “horrific circumstances”. “Many civilians are currently unable to move, trapped by fighting, destruction or physical constraint and now lack access to even basic medical care,” it said.
Israel passes law banning UN humanitarian relief agency for Palestinians -Israel passed a law on Monday banning the United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East (UNRWA), according to multiple reports.Israel’s legislature, the Knesset, voted 92-10 to bar the UNRWA from operating on Israeli soil on Monday, notes the Associated Press.“It was approved by the plenary: UNRWA activities in the territory of the State of Israel will be stopped,” the Knesset said in a post on the social platform X translated from Hebrew.Another law possibly cutting off diplomatic ties between Israel and UNRWA also passed the Israeli legislature, according to the AP. In the wake of the U.N. receiving notification from Israel’s foreign ministry, both the law on UNRWA activity in Israel and on diplomatic ties have the chance of taking effect in up to 3 months, per a spokesperson for a co-sponsor backing part of UNRWA-targeting legislation.“UNRWA workers involved in terrorist activities against Israel must be held accountable. Since avoiding a humanitarian crisis is also essential, sustained humanitarian aid must remain available in Gaza now and in the future,” a post on Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s account on X read Monday.“In the 90 days before this legislation takes effect – and after – we stand ready to work with our international partners to ensure Israel continues to facilitate humanitarian aid to civilians in Gaza in a way that does not threaten Israel’s security,” the post continued.UNRWA’s leader, Philippe Lazzarini, criticized the vote in a post on X Monday calling it “unprecedented.”“The vote by the Israeli Parliament (Knesset) against @UNRWA this evening is unprecedented and sets a dangerous precedent. It opposes the UN Charter and violates the State of Israel’s obligations under international law,” he wrote, calling it “the latest in the ongoing campaign to discredit UNRWA and delegitimize its role towards providing human-development assistance and services to #Palestine Refugees.”
Israeli Knesset Passes Bill To Ban UN Palestinian Relief Agency - The Israeli Knesset on Monday passed a bill banning the UN’s Palestinian relief agency, UNWRA, from operating inside Israel and another that will severely limit its ability to operate in Gaza and the West Bank. The legislation is expected to take effect in 90 days.The first bill banning UNWRA in Israel passed in a vote of 92-10. The second bill aimed at ending UNWRA’s operations in the Israeli-occupied territories passed in a vote of 97-9.The second bill prohibits Israeli authorities from having any contact with UNRWA, making it impossible for the relief agency to coordinate with the Israeli military on aid deliveries. The legislation does not outline any plan to replace UNRWA’s relief efforts in Gaza, which millions of Palestinian civilians rely on to survive.Israel has waged war against UNWRA over the past year, killing over 200 of its staff members in Gaza. Israel has claimed a significant number of UNWRA’s staff are members of Hamas but has offered no evidence for the allegations, which have been strongly rejected by the UN agency.The US took Israel’s claims at face value and cut off funding to UNWRA at the beginning of the year. Now, the US is warning Israel against implementing the bills banning UNRWA since it would starve Palestinian civilians.“If UNRWA goes away, you will see civilians — including children, including babies — not be able to get access to food and water and medicine that they need to live. We find that unacceptable,” State Department spokesman Matt Miller said ahead of the Knesset vote.“We continue to urge the government of Israel to pause the implementation of this legislation. We urge them not to pass it at all, and we will consider next steps based on what happens in the days ahead,” Miller added.UNWRA was formed in 1949 to provide aid to about 750,000 Palestinians who were displaced when the state of Israel was founded in 1948, an ethnic cleansing known to the Palestinians as the “Nakba.” Today, Israeli ministers are calling for a new Nakba in Gaza to pave the way for Jewish settlements, and the Israeli military is currently imposing a starvation siege on northern Gaza to forcibly displace hundreds of thousands of civilians.
Yeah, Yeah, UNRWA Is Hamas. Everyone Israel Hates Is Hamas. -Caitlin Johnstone -Notes From The Edge Of The Narrative Matrix - The Israeli Knesset has banned UNRWA, an absolutely critical agency for getting humanitarian aid into Gaza, with the architect of the bill saying this was happening because “UNRWA equals Hamas”. In addition to everything else this genocide has been, it’s been a colossal insult to our intelligence. UNRWA is Hamas. Hospitals are Hamas. Journalists are Hamas. Civilian infrastructure is Hamas. Ambulances, schools and mosques are Hamas. The women and babies — okay maybe they’re not technically Hamas, but Hamas is definitely hiding behind them and using them as human shields. We are asked to believe self-evidently idiotic things, and if we don’t, we get called Nazi Jew-haters. We are being asked to turn ourselves into empty-headed morons to advance the information interests of a foreign state that’s allied with our government. Stupidity is being framed as a sign of patriotism. Gullibility is being framed as a sign of rejecting antisemitism. In this morally bankrupt and perverse civilization, the noblest thing you can be is a blithering imbecile.Axios and its Israeli intelligence insider Barak Ravid have penned yet another White House press release disguised as a news story about how “concerned” the Biden administration is about Israel’s actions in Gaza.“The Biden administration is ‘deeply concerned’ that two bills passed by the Israeli Knesset on Monday will exacerbate the already dire humanitarian crisis in Gaza and harm Palestinians in East Jerusalem and the West Bank,” Ravidwrites.Oh shit you guys the Biden administration is deeply concerned that Israel is doing something bad in Gaza! You’re in trouble now, Bibi!Like I said. Just one nonstop insult to our intelligence.
Israel massacres 93 in Northern Gaza airstrike, bans UN humanitarian origination -- In the worst single massacre since Israel launched its campaign to ethnically cleanse Northern Gaza this month, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) bombed a five-story residential building in the town of Beit Lahia Tuesday, killing 93 people, including 25 children. That day, at least 143 people were killed in Israeli airstrikes throughout Gaza, with the vast majority—132—killed in Northern Gaza, Al Jazeera reported. With the Palestinian civil defense almost entirely out of commission due to targeting by Israeli troops, dozens of people remained buried under the rubble, where they will most likely die awaiting rescue. “A number of victims are still under the rubble and on the roads, and ambulance and civil defense crews cannot reach them,” Gaza’s health ministry said in a statement. Mahmoud Basal, a spokesman for the Palestinian civil defense agency, said “There are appeals and stress calls for Civil Defense teams to save the wounded,” but civil defense forces have been either arrested by Israeli troops or “forcibly displaced due to the Israeli aggression in North Gaza.” Witness Ismail Ouaida said in a video verified by Reuters, “There are tens of martyrs (dead)—tens of displaced people who were living in this house. The house was bombed without prior warning. As you can see, martyrs are here and there, with body parts hanging on the walls.” Another survivor, a Palestinian mother, told Al Jazeera, “Both my sons with their entire families were killed. My unmarried daughter was also killed. And my other daughter with her five children. All killed. What wrong did they do? What did those innocent people do to be slaughtered like this?” The health ministry said in a statement Tuesday that the wounded will not receive medical care as nearby doctors had been forced by Israeli troops to evacuate at gunpoint. “Critical cases without intervention will succumb to their destiny and die,” the ministry said in a statement. With consummate hypocrisy, US State Department spokesman Matthew Miller called the bombing a “horrifying incident with a horrifying result.” In reality, the massacre is completely in keeping with US policy. The Biden administration has provided Israel with more than 14,000 2,000-pound bombs, which have been used to systematically target populated areas with the deliberate aim of killing as many people as possible. Last week, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken met with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to discuss the so-called “General’s Plan” to ethnically cleanse Northern Gaza. Despite Netanyahu’s refusal to publicly disavow the plan, Blinken emerged from the meeting to give a blanket statement of support for Israel’s “right to defend itself.” The official death toll in the Gaza genocide now stands at over 43,000 with tens of thousands more still missing and likely buried under the rubble. An article published in The Lancet earlier this year estimated the actual death toll—including from the effects of starvation and disease—as exceeding 186,000. The massacre in Beit Lahia is part of a systematic effort by Israel to ethnically cleanse Northern Gaza through bombing and starvation and to kill everyone that remains. Over the past three weeks, at least 700 people have been killed in Northern Gaza as part of this campaign. At the start of this month, there were 400,000 people remaining in Northern Gaza. Now, that figure is estimated at around 100,000 people, with those that remain completely without food, fuel or medical supplies. Tuesday’s massacre followed the passage by Israel’s parliament of a law banning the UN relief agency UNRWA from operating inside Gaza, further dismantling any remaining humanitarian operations in the region. UNRWA head Philippe Lazzarini described the move as “nothing less than collective punishment,” declaring that the move violates the UN Charter and violates the State of Israel’s obligations under international law.
Israel again bombs Gaza’s Beit Lahiya hours after killing 93 in one strike - Israel’s military has again bombed residential buildings in Gaza’s Beit Lahiya, killing at least 19 Palestinians, as civilians in the besieged northern town searched for survivors in the aftermath of an earlier Israeli raid that killed nearly 100 people. The latest Israeli bombing, late on Tuesday night, hit several homes belonging to the Al Louh family, according to the Palestinian Civil Defence in Gaza.The attack came less than a day after Israel’s military bombed a five-storey building belonging to the Abu Nasr family in Beit Lahiya, killing at least 93 people and wounding dozens more. The Ministry of Health in Gaza said at least 25 children were among the dead.Israel’s military said it was “looking into the reports of the strike”, while its main ally, the United States, called the attack “horrifying”.The United Nations Human Rights Office (OHCHR) said it was “appalled” by the bombing, describing it one of the deadliest single attacks in Gaza in nearly three months. The UN’s humanitarian agency (OCHA) said the assault on the Abu Nasr family home was among seven “mass casualty incidents” in Gaza in the past week alone.Israel’s escalating air and ground assault on Beit Lahiya comes as its siege of northern Gaza has entered its 26th day.The Israeli military said it launched the offensive to stop Hamas fighters from regrouping in the north of the territory, despite saying earlier this year that it had wiped out the Palestinian group – which governs Gaza – in the area.According to the the Palestinian Civil Defence, more than 100,000 people remain trapped in the north without food and water and dozens remain buried in the rubble of bombed homes, with rescue workers unable to reach them due to Israel’s ongoing siege and attacks.Footage from the Israeli assault on the Abu Nasr family home early on Tuesday, obtained by Al Jazeera, showed a Palestinian man covered in dust trapped under concrete and steel bars as others tried to break apart walls using pick axes to free him. Outside the building, several bodies wrapped in blankets lay on the ground. Ismail Ouaida, a witness, said the Israeli attack came without warning. “As you can see, there are martyrs all over the place,” he said, pointing to two dead bodies under the rubble. “[There are] bodies hanging over the walls.”Another Palestinian woman, in footage verified by Al Jazeera, said she lost multiple members of her family.“Both my sons with their entire families were killed. My unmarried daughter was also killed,” the woman said, weeping. “And my other daughter with her five children – all killed. What wrong did they do? What did those innocent people do to be slaughtered like this?” Rabie al-Shandagly, a 30-year-old survivor, told the AFP news agency that most of the victims were women and children.“The explosion happened at night and I first thought it was shelling, but when I went out after sunrise, I saw people pulling bodies, limbs and the wounded from under the rubble,” he said. “People are trying to save the injured, but there are no hospitals or proper medical care.”At the Kamal Adwan Hospital, the main medical facility serving the people of north Gaza, dozens of wounded people arrived seeking treatment, but the hospital’s director said there were no staff to treat the patients as Israeli forces had arrested most of its workers in a raid last week.“The Kamal Adwan Hospital and the entire vicinity is a war zone. The hospital is left with no resources; no medical supplies; no medical staff. This is because many of our specialised doctors and surgeons have been detained,” Dr Hussam Abu Safiya said.He described chaotic scenes with patients and the injured “strewn all over” the hospital floor, and called for urgent international intervention.
Mourners Eulogize Israeli Soldier for His Desire To 'Take Revenge' Against Palestinian Women and Children - An Israeli soldier who was killed in Lebanon was fondly remembered at his funeral for his desire to “take revenge” against Palestinian women and children in Gaza, Israeli media has reported.Shuvael Ben-Natan, a 22-year-old Israeli reservist and West Bank settler, was killed while fighting Hezbollah last week. “You entered Gaza to take revenge — as much as possible. [Against] women, children — everyone you saw. As much as possible. That’s what you wanted,” Ben-Natan’s brother, Uriah Ben-Natan, said at the funeral, according to The Times of Israel.“May the people of Israel be worthy of pursuing your vengeance – blood vengeance, not revenge by burning homes, trees, and vehicles,” Uriah added.A soldier delivered a eulogy at the funeral and called Ben-Natan a “goofball” for burning down a house in Gaza. “You were the happiest and biggest goofball in the platoon. We realized this for the first time when you set a house on fire without approval in order to boost morale,” the soldier said.Another speaker at the funeral fondly recalled when Ben-Natan shot and killed a Palestinian in the West Bank who was harvesting olives with his children in October 2023. “I was so impressed by you,” the speaker said, according to Haaretz. “There were cursed olive harvesters, terrorists, and the pathetic Israel Defense Forces didn’t realize what was happening. You shoot, you talk, you drive them away.”The speaker criticized the Israeli military for arresting Ben-Natan over the murder of the Palestinian olive harvester, Bilal Salah. “They’re despicable; they arrested you but didn’t even question the Arabs,” he said. According to eyewitness accounts, Salah and several other Palestinians were harvesting olives in a town near Nablus when settlers attacked them and opened fire. Despite the murder, Ben-Natan was still able to fight for the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) in Gaza and Lebanon.
Gaza Aid at Its Lowest Level Yet - The amount of aid entering Gaza has fallen to its lowest level since Israel unleashed its brutal military campaign on the territory in October 2023 as Israel imposed a starvation blockade on northern Gaza earlier this month.According to the UN, only 703 truckloads of aid entered Gaza between October 1 and October 22. The number marks a significant decline in the previous rate of aid entering the Strip. In September, just over 3,000 aid trucks were allowed into Gaza, which was already the lowest rate in any month of the past year.The decline in aid deliveries has continued despite a letter that the US sent to Israel on October 14 that gave Israeli officials 30 days to ease the starvation blockade, a deadline that comes after the US presidential election. The letter called for Israel to allow 350 aid trucks into Gaza per day and said if the demands were not met there would be “implications” for US policy related to foreign assistance laws. But the letter did not explicitly say the US would cut off military aid and the State Department has refused to say if there would be any consequences. Hala Rharrit, a former Arabic language spokeswoman for the State Department who resigned over US support for the slaughter in Gaza, said the letter was clearly a pre-election public relations ploy.Rharrit also noted the US was violating foreign assistance laws by providing military aid to Israel as its purposely preventing aid deliveries to starve Palestinians.At the beginning of October, Israel ordered hundreds of thousands of Palestinian civilians to evacuate northern Gaza and cut off all aid deliveries into the area, following an outline for ethnic cleansing known as the “general’s plan.” Very few aid trucks have entered northern Gaza since then, but none have reached Jabalia and the towns around it, where the Israeli military has focused its military assault.Joyce Msuya, the UN’s acting Under-Secretary-General for Humanitarian Affairs, recently warned that the “entire population of north Gaza is at risk of dying” due to the siege and Israeli military operations, which have targeted hospitals and buildings sheltering displaced Palestinians.“What Israeli forces are doing in besieged north Gaza cannot be allowed to continue,” Msuya said. “Shelters have been emptied and burned down…families have been separated, and men and boys taken away by the truckload.”
Israeli Troops Prevent North Gaza Residents From Returning to Their Homes as Part of Ethnic Cleansing Plan - The Israeli military is preventing residents of Jabalia in northern Gaza from returning to their homes as part of an ethnic cleansing campaign,Haaretz reported on Wednesday. The report said the military is blocking the return of approximately 50,000 residents of Jabalia due to pressure from Israeli political leadership. It said the Israeli army acknowledged it’s carrying out a partial implementation of the “general’s plan,” which calls for a complete ethnic cleansing of all areas of Gaza north of the Netzarim Corridor, a strip of land controlled by the Israeli military. As part of the ethnic cleansing campaign, Israel has cut off virtually all aid deliveries into northern Gaza since the beginning of October, and no aid has reached Jabalia or the areas around it. The Haaretz report said senior Israeli military and Shin Bet officials acknowledged the general’s plan violates international law but are claiming the partial implementation does not, even though it has involved a starvation blockade and large-scale attacks on civilians.The report said residents of Jabalia “will only be allowed to return after Israeli security control over the area is complete, including designating parts of it demilitarized buffer zones.” However, the general’s plan does not say Palestinians can return to the north once they’re cleansed, and Israeli soldiers have been destroying buildings in Jabalia, so they have nowhere to go back to.Younis Tirawi, a Palestinian journalist who closely follows the social media activity of Israeli soldiers, shared a video on X of a bulldozer destroying a building in Jabalia that was posted by an Israeli soldier. “Making sure they have nowhere to return to,” the post says.
"Too Much Evidence" Of Genocide - Caitlin Johnstone -- South Africa’s legal team has submitted hundreds of documents containing what it calls “undeniable evidence” as part of its ongoing genocide case against the state of Israel, with the South African representative to The Hague telling Al Jazeera that “The problem we have is that we have too much evidence.” The Israeli outlet Haaretz reports that IDF soldiers are actively blocking the return of Palestinians they have driven out of northern Gaza as part of the so-called “General’s Plan” — a land grab of Palestinian territory using ethnic cleansing by violent force.Haaretz has been far more critical of Israel’s actions than western media outlets have been. It recently published an editorial titled “If It Looks Like Ethnic Cleansing, It Probably Is”. Haaretz publisher Amos Schocken is now publicly advocating international sanctions on the Israeli government for its apartheid abuses and opposition to a Palestinian state, drawing an outraged responsefrom the Netanyahu regime.Last week there was a two-day rally attended by multiple Israeli government officials called the “Preparing to Resettle Gaza Conference,” which was exactly what it sounds like: high-profile Israelis gathering to discuss the agenda to drive Palestinians out of the Gaza Strip and replace their territory with Jewish settlements.Humanitarian aid in Gaza has reportedly fallen to its lowest level since Israel’s genocidal onslaught began, with just a few hundred truckloads entering the enclave from October 1 to October 22 and nothing getting through to the north. The UN’s Under-Secretary-General for Humanitarian Affairs recently warned that “The entire population of North Gaza is at risk of dying,” a warning that was issued shortly before the Israeli Knesset voted to cut off UNRWA aid throughout all the territories it controls.According to a new report from The Washington Post, the US State Department has been inundated with hundreds of reports of US-supplied weapons being used to needlessly kill and harm civilians in Gaza, but in violation of its own rules it has failed to take any action on a single one of them. According to one WaPo source, investigations of these reports have tended to stall out at the “verification” stage, which consists of asking the Israeli government for its side of the story.Israeli forces reportedly killed 109 Palestinians in a single massacre on Tuesday — including dozens of children — when Israel blew up an apartment building where hundreds of civilians were sleeping. The IDF killed five journalists in a single day last Sunday, bringing the total number of journalists murdered in Israel’s genocidal assault to at least 180. This occurred shortly after Israel published a kill list of six Al Jazeera journalists who it claims are secret Hamas fighters, although no Al Jazeera reporters were among the five killed.And this is just in Gaza. Israel has already killed some 164 healthcare workers in its ongoing assault on Lebanon, where the Netanyahu government issabotaging ceasefire negotiations by inserting ridiculous non-starter demands like Israeli planes being allowed to enter Lebanese airspace and Israeli forces being allowed to police the ceasefire deal with military operations in southern Lebanon as they see fit. Every day there’s more and more ugly news in the middle east, perpetrated by Israel and its powerful western backers who make its abuses possible. It’s getting harder and harder to stay on top of. There really is “too much evidence” to keep up with.
How Israel’s starvation of Gaza is affecting Palestinians elsewhere - The Israeli war on Gaza has manifested in a variety of brutal forms and the most insidious and devastating one of them has been the weaponisation of starvation. On October 9, 2023, Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant announced that “there will be no electricity, no food, no fuel” allowed into Gaza. The justification was that Israel “is fighting human animals”. Two weeks later, Member of Knesset Tally Gotliv declared: “Without hunger and thirst among the Gaza population… we won’t be able to bribe people with food, drink, medicine to obtain intelligence.” Over the next few months, Israel not only obstructed the delivery of aid to Palestinians in Gaza, but also targeted and destroyed food production infrastructure, including cultivated fields, bakeries, mills, and food stores. This deliberate strategy, aimed at subjugating and breaking the spirit of the Palestinian people, has taken countless victims in Gaza – many of them babies and young children. But it has also had profound consequences for Palestinians elsewhere. As a mental health professional, I have witnessed firsthand the psychological and physical toll this collective punishment has had on individuals in occupied East Jerusalem and the occupied West Bank. I have observed Palestinian youth who are developing complicated relationships with food, their bodies and their social and national identity in response to the horrors they witness and hear about daily. To understand the effect of weaponised starvation, it is essential to consider the broader social and psychological framework within which it occurs. Trauma is not merely an individual experience but is embedded within and exacerbated by the social conditions and structures surrounding the individual. In Gaza, traumatogenic structures include the ongoing siege, the genocidal aggression, and the deliberate deprivation of essential resources such as food, water, and medicine. The trauma they result in is compounded by the collective memory of suffering during the Nakba (the mass ethnic cleansing of Palestinians in 1947-8) and the continuous displacement and systemic oppression of the occupation. In this environment, trauma is not just a personal experience but a collective, socially and politically ingrained reality. Although Palestinians outside Gaza are not directly experiencing the genocidal violence unleashed by Israel there, they have been exposed daily to harrowing images and stories about it. The relentless and systematic starvation of Gaza’s residents has been particularly traumatic to witness. Within weeks of Gallant’s declaration, food shortages started to be felt in Gaza. By January, the prices of food items skyrocketed, especially in northern Gaza, where a colleague told me he paid $200 for a pumpkin. At about this time, reports started emerging of Palestinians being forced to mix animal fodder and flour to make bread. In February, the first images of Palestinian babies and young children dying of malnutrition flooded social media. By March, UNICEF was reporting that 1 in 3 children under the age of 2 were acutely malnourished in northern Gaza. By April, Oxfam was estimating that the average food intake for Palestinians in northern Gaza was no more than 245 calories a day or just 12 percent of the daily requirement. At about that time, the Palestinian Ministry of Health announced that 32 Palestinians, including 28 children, had been killed by hunger, although the true death toll was likely much higher. Stories were also circulating of Palestinians being shot dead waiting for food aid to be distributed, or drowning in the sea while running after airdrops of food by governments that have backed the Israeli war on Gaza. In a letter published in the medical journal The Lancet on April 22, Dr Abdullah al-Jamal, the only psychiatrist remaining in northern Gaza, wrote that mental healthcare had been completely devastated. He added: “The biggest of problems now in Gaza, especially in the north, are famine and lack of security. Police are unable to operate because they are immediately targeted by spy drones and aircraft in their attempt to establish order. Armed gangs that cooperate in some way with the Israeli forces control the distribution and prices of food and pharmaceutical commodities that enter Gaza as aid, including what is dropped by parachutes. Some foodstuffs, such as flour, have doubled in price many times, which exacerbates the crisis of the population here.” The Israeli starvation of Gaza has had psychological and physical ripple effects across Palestinian communities. In my clinical practice, I have encountered several cases in occupied East Jerusalem and the occupied West Bank that illustrate how the trauma of starvation in Gaza is mirrored in the lives of young Palestinians far from the conflict zone. Here are a few of them.
- Ali, a 17-year-old from the West Bank, experienced changes in eating behaviour and lost 8kg (17lbs) over two months following the detention of his friend by Israeli forces. Despite the significant weight loss, he denied feeling sad, insisting that “prison makes men.” However, he could express more openly his anger about the conditions in Gaza, and his disrupted sleep patterns suggested a deep psychological impact. “I can’t stop watching the bombardment and starvation in Gaza, I feel so helpless.” Ali’s loss of appetite is a manifestation of his internalised anger and grief, reflecting the broader social trauma that has enveloped him.
- Salma, at just 11 years old, has been hoarding food cans, water bottles, and dry beans in her bedroom. She has said she is “preparing for genocide” in the West Bank. Salma’s father reported that she becomes “hysterical” when he brings home expensive food items like meat or fruit. Her gradual decrease in food intake and refusal to eat, which exacerbated during the month of Ramadan, reveal a deep sense of anxiety and guilt about the starvation of children in Gaza. Salma’s case illustrates how the trauma of starvation, even when experienced indirectly, can profoundly alter a child’s relationship with food and their sense of safety in the world.
- Layla, a 13-year-old girl, presents with a mysterious inability to eat, describing a sensation that “something in my throat prevents me from eating; there is a thorn blocking my gorge.” Despite extensive medical examinations, no physical cause has been found. Further discussion revealed that Layla’s father was arrested by Israeli forces and she has heard nothing about him since. Layla’s inability to eat is a psychosomatic response to the trauma of her father’s detention and her awareness of the starvation, torture and sexual violence inflicted on Palestinian political prisoners. She was also deeply affected by the reports of starvation and violence in Gaza, drawing parallels between the suffering in Gaza and her father’s uncertain fate, which amplified her psychosomatic symptoms.
- Riham, a 15-year-old girl, has developed repetitive involuntary vomiting and a profound disgust with food, particularly meat. Her family has a history of obesity and gastrectomy but she has denied any concerns about body image. She attributes her vomiting to the images of blood and dismemberment of people in Gaza that she has seen. Over time, her aversion has extended to flour-based foods, driven by the fear that they might be mixed with animal fodder. Although she understands that this does not happen where she is, her stomach rejects the food when she attempts to eat.
80,000 Evacuate Ancient Lebanese City Of Baalbek As Israel Unleashes Huge Airstrikes Huge Israeli airstrikes rocked Lebanon's eastern city of Baalbek on Wednesday, nearly 70km northeast of Beirut, after Israel warned some 80,000 residents to evacuate.It was the first such call to evacuate on such a large scale from Israel's military (IDF) in this location (and so far north, significantly away from frontlines in southern Lebanon) since the war began, and main roads out of the city have been jammed and chaotic throughout the day."The city is almost empty," an AFP correspondent described soon after the evacuation warning. Prior bombings in the same area (Bekaa Valley) left at least 60 people dead on Monday.The IDF published a map alongside the warning to evacuate which included the entire extended city situated in the eastern Bekaa Valley - long known as a Hezbollah stronghold."The (Israeli army) will act forcefully against Hezbollah interests within your city and villages," an Israeli military spokesman said on X.The fresh Wednesday air raids on Baalbek, an ancient city and UNESCO site with many Roman ruins, began within just minutes after newly named Hezbollah chief, Sheikh Naim Qassem, started speaking in his first address as the Iran-backed paramilitary group's Secretary-General.Qassem's theme for the speech focused on readiness of the group to keeping the fight going so long as Israel is on Lebanese territory. "Final victory will be ours," he proclaimed as part of the nearly hour-long pre-recorded video speech from an undisclosed location.He spoke in front of a large image of his assassinated predecessor Hassan Nasrallah who had for decades been the much more recognizable face of Hezbollah behind him.Importantly, after the many serious losses and setbacks for the group going back to the mass pager attack of September, and Israel soon after taking out Nasrallah and his number two leader Hashem Safieddine along with top officers, new Secretary-General Qassem is now vowing "we can keep fighting for days, weeks and months."
Netanyahu Says Israel Must Be Able To Enforce Any Lebanon Ceasefire Deal - Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Thursday that Israel must be able to enforce any ceasefire deal in Lebanon amid reports of ongoing truce negotiations. “The main issue is not the paperwork of this or that agreement, but Israel’s ability and determination to enforce the agreement and thwart any threat to its security from Lebanon,” Netanyahu told US officials, according to Reuters. His comments came a day after Israel’s Kan broadcaster reported on a leaked draft for a ceasefire deal that was drawn up by the US, which includes provisions that are non-starters for both Hezbollah and the Lebanese government. Under the draft deal, there would be an initial 60-day ceasefire, and during that time, Israeli troops would withdraw from southern Lebanon, and Hezbollah would move north of the Litani River. The Lebanese Armed Forces and UN peacekeepers would then be deployed in the area.The ceasefire plan is similar to UN Security Council Resolution 1701 except for two major differences. The US-drafted plan would allow for Israeli planes to still fly over Lebanon, and the Israeli military would have the right to fire in “self-defense” and to operate in southern Lebanon if it thought Hezbollah was violating the deal.People familiar with the Lebanese government’s thinking told Financial Times that the draft was “unacceptable” to Beirut. “Israel can’t claim control over the south and air space,” one of the sources said.Other sources told FT that the leak was likely designed to damage the talks so a deal wouldn’t be reached before the US presidential election on November 5. Netanyahu’s comments on Thursday could have also been an attempt to sabotage negotiations.
Nearly 500 PKK targets hit in Iraq, Syria after Ankara attack: Erdogan -The Turkish military has struck 470 Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) targets in Iraq and Syria since the group carried out an attack on a Turkish state-owned defense firm last week, Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said on Monday. Following a cabinet meeting, the Turkish leader said that the Kurdish armed group wanted to send the Turkish government a message through Wednesday’s attack on Turkish Aerospace Industries (TAI) which killed five people and injured 22 others. Hours after the attack, Turkey responded in time-honored fashion, by bombing border areas in the Kurdistan Region and alleged PKK positions in northeast Syria (Rojava). Erdogan claimed that the Turkish army “neutralized” 213 PKK fighters during their retaliatory strikes against the group’s alleged bases in the Kurdistan Region and Rojava, adding that 470 targets belonging to the group were hit. Ankara uses the phrase to denote adversaries captured, wounded, or killed. "As the Republic of Turkey, we have discarded the messages intended to be given through this vile attack,” he said. PKK claimed responsibility for the attack, saying it was carried out by “an autonomous team” which belongs to one of its offshoots, noting that it often conducts “self-sacrificing actions that are warnings and messages against the genocidal practices, massacres and isolation practices of the Turkish state power.” The Kurdish group has accused Ankara of oppressing its significant Kurdish population. Founded in 1978, the PKK initially called for the establishment of an independent Kurdistan but now calls for autonomy. The group is designated as a terrorist organization by Turkey and Western allies. The 40-year long conflict between PKK and the Turkish state has claimed an estimated 40,000 lives. The latest tensions between the arch-foes emerged amid rumors of fresh attempts aiming for a rapprochement. The lifting of isolation measures on the jailed PKK leader Abdullah Ocalan on the same day of the TAI attack and the shocking remarks of a Turkish nationalist leader, who extended an olive branch to Ocalan, have given a glimpse of hope to those who have been struggling to end decades of war. Erdogan claimed last week that the two PKK members who attacked TAI headquarters had entered the country from Syria. The Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) are the dominant force in northeast Syria and have been supported by the US-led international coalition against the Islamic State (ISIS). Ankara considers the SDF to be an offshoot of the PKK. SDF commander Mazloum Abdi denied the “activists” entered Turkey from their areas. “Our forces have nothing to do with these attacks and the attackers did not pass through Syrian territory,” he said in a video message on Saturday. Abdi said the Turkish strikes had killed 15 civilians and two of their members.
Over 100 staff accuse BBC of bias in coverage of Israel’s war in Gaza --The BBC has been accused by more than 100 of its staff of giving Israel favourable coverage in its reporting of the war on Gaza and criticised its lack of “accurate evidence-based journalism”.A letter sent to the broadcaster’s director general, Tim Davie, and CEO Deborah Turness on Friday said: “Basic journalistic tenets have been lacking when it comes to holding Israel to account for its actions.”First reported by The Independent newspaper on Friday, the signatories included more than 100 anonymous BBC staff and more than 200 from the media industry, as well as historians, actors, academics and politicians.“The consequences of inadequate coverage are significant. Every television report, article and radio interview that has failed to robustly challenge Israeli claims has systematically dehumanised Palestinians,” the letter said.Israel’s war on Gaza has killed at least 43,259 Palestinians and wounded 101,827 since October 7, 2023. An estimated 1,139 people were killed in Israel during the Hamas-led attacks that day and more than 200 were taken captive. The signatories called on the BBC to implement editorial commitments including “reiterating that Israel does not give external journalists access to Gaza; making it clear when there is insufficient evidence to back up Israeli claims; making clear where Israel is the perpetrator in article headlines; including regular historical context predating October 2023; and robustly challenging Israeli government and military representatives in all interviews”.The letter said British media organisations such as the BBC, ITV and Sky “enjoy high levels of public trust” and have a “duty to fearlessly follow the evidence”.It also noted that the BBC “is licence fee funded, and the erosion of its own editorial standards has put its impartiality and independence at serious risk”.Last November, more than a month after Israel began its war in Gaza, eight United Kingdom-based journalists employed by the BBC wrote a letter to Al Jazeera and said the BBC is guilty of a “double standard in how civilians are seen”, given that it is “unflinching” in its reporting of alleged Russian war crimes in Ukraine.“This organisation doesn’t represent us,” one of the co-writers told Al Jazeera.“For me, and definitely for other people of colour, we can see blatantly that certain civilian lives are considered more worthy than others – that there is some sort of hierarchy at play.”Israel’s war has now expanded to Lebanon, where at least 2,897 people have been killed and 13,150 wounded in Israeli attacks since the war on Gaza began.
Kremlin Says German Arms Factory Opened in Ukraine Is a Legitimate Target - The Kremlin said on Tuesday that a factory in Ukraine that was opened by the German arms maker Rheinmetall could become a target of the Russian military.When asked if Russia considered the factory a “legitimate military target,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov replied, “Certainly it is.”Rheinmetall opened the factory this month, and it will focus on the production and maintenance of armored vehicles. Armin Papperger, the CEO of Rheinmetall, said the goal is to produce a batch of Lynx infantry fighting vehicles by the end of the year.Rheinmetall has said it plans to open a total of four factories in Ukraine despite Russian threats to target them. The other three factories will include facilities to produce gunpowder, tank ammunition, and air defense systems.Other Western arms makers looking to cash in on the proxy war have announced plans to open factories or help facilitate the production of weapons inside Ukraine. Helping build up Ukraine’s military-industrial complex is one of NATO’s long-term goals.The US is also spending money to help produce weapons inside Ukraine. Last week, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said the US has agreed to provide $800 million for the production of long-range drones, which can be used to hit targets deep inside Russian territory.
China now has the biggest navy in the world - -- China has rapidly expanded its naval capabilities, now boasting the world's largest fleet by the number of vessels. However, despite this growth and the construction of more advanced ships like the Fujian, China still lags behind the U.S. in terms of naval power. The U.S. maintains a fleet of 11 advanced supercarriers, unparalleled by any other nation, while China's carriers are fewer and less capable. Additionally, the U.S. has a superior submarine fleet, with 71 nuclear-powered submarines capable of global and indefinite operations, compared to China's primarily regional, diesel-electric submarines. Although China aspires to become the world's most powerful navy, the U.S. continues to hold a significant qualitative edge, capable of projecting power globally across multiple fronts.
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