week ending Dec 7

Fed's Williams eyes further cuts as price pressures cool further (Reuters) - Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams said on Monday the U.S. central bank is likely to lower its interest rate target further over time as inflation pressures continue to cool. “Monetary policy remains in restrictive territory to support the sustainable return of inflation to our 2 percent goal,” Williams said in the text of a speech to be delivered before a gathering of the Queens Chamber of Commerce, held in New York. Looking ahead, “I expect it will be appropriate to continue to move to a more neutral policy setting over time,” Williams said, adding “the path for policy will depend on the data. If we’ve learned anything over the past five years, it’s that the outlook remains highly uncertain.” Williams offered no firm guidance about the timing of rate cuts and whether he believes the Fed will lower its interest rate target, now set at between 4.5% and 4.75%, at the Federal Open Market Committee meeting this month. Markets have braced for more rate cuts amid guidance of easier policy from central bank officials, but new uncertainties over President-elect Donald Trump's policies have clouded that outlook. In a speech Monday, Fed Governor Christopher Waller said “at present I lean toward supporting a cut to the policy rate at our December meeting” depending on how the data come in. In his remarks, Williams said the economy is in a “good place” and the labor market is “strong.” He sees inflation continuing to ebb to the 2% target over time but warned the process could be uneven. The official said the economy should grow by 2.5% this year or maybe more, with the unemployment rate between 4% and 4.25% “over coming months.” Williams said inflation should be 2.25% for the year and said the job market was unlikely to be a source of upward price pressures.

Fed's Waller leaning toward rate cut but open to a 'skip' - At least one Federal Reserve official is leaning toward cutting interest rates at the central bank's final monetary policy-setting meeting of the year. Federal Reserve Gov. Christopher Waller, a Trump appointee, said that while recent inflation readings are concerning, monetary policy would remain restrictive even if the central bank cuts interest rates by another quarter-point this month.

Fed's Waller says he is 'leaning toward' a rate cut, but worries about inflation --Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said Monday he is anticipating an interest rate cut in December but is concerned about recent trends on inflation that could change his mind."Based on the economic data in hand today and forecasts that show that inflation will continue on its downward path to 2 percent over the medium term, at present I lean toward supporting a cut to the policy rate at our December meeting," Waller said in remarks before a monetary policy forum in Washington.However, he noted the "decision will depend on whether data that we will receive before then surprises to the upside and alters my forecast for the path of inflation."Waller cited recent data indicating that progress on inflation may be "stalling."In October, the Fed's preferred inflation indicator, the personal consumption expenditures price index, showed headline inflation moving up to 2.3% annually, and core prices, which exclude the cost of food and energy, moving up to 2.8%. The Fed targets a 2% rate.Though the data was in line with Wall Street expectations, it showed an increase from the prior month and was evidence that despite the progress, the central bank's goal has proved elusive."Overall, I feel like an MMA fighter who keeps getting inflation in a choke hold, waiting for it to tap out, yet it keeps slipping out of my grasp at the last minute," Waller said, referring to mixed martial arts. "But let me assure you that submission is inevitable — inflation isn't getting out of the octagon."Markets expect the Fed to lop another quarter-percentage point off its benchmark overnight borrowing rate when it meets Dec. 17-18. That would follow a half-point cut in September and a quarter-point reduction in November."As of today, I am leaning toward continuing the work we have started in returning monetary policy to a more neutral setting," Waller said.Waller said he will watch incoming employment and inflation data closely. The Bureau of Labor Statistics this week will release reports on job openings and nonfarm payrolls, the latter coming after gains in October came in at a paltry 12,000, due largely to labor strikes and weather issues. Even with the slowing progress on inflation, Waller said broader economic health has him feeling like it will be appropriate to continue to ease monetary policy."After we cut by 75 basis points, I believe the evidence is strong that policy continues to be significantly restrictive and that cutting again will only mean that we aren't pressing on the brake pedal quite as hard," he said. Also Monday, New York Fed President John Williams expressed confidence that inflation is heading lower and said he still thinks it will be likely to put policy in a more "neutral" setting over time, without providing specifics.

Watch Live: Fed Chair Powell Delivers Final Remarks Before Dec FOMC Meeting -Fed Chair Powell is about to deliver his final publicly scheduled comments on the state of the economy before the central bank's last rate-setting meeting this year.Powell will be interviewed by Andrew Ross Sorkin at the New York Times DealBook Summit giving investors a final take on his views before a quiet period ahead of next week's FOMC meeting.The FOMC has lowered the federal-funds rate by 75bps since September, leaving it at a target range of 4.5% to 4.75%.The STIRs market pricing this morning implies roughly 75% odds of another 25bps cut on Dec. 18 (and a 25% chance of a 'pause').“The economy is not sending any signals that we need to be in a hurry to lower rates,” Powell said during his most recent public appearance, on Nov. 14.“The strength we are currently seeing in the economy gives us the ability to approach our decisions carefully.”Fed Chair Jerome Powell is expected to stick to that script and signal that the Fed is in no hurry to cut its benchmark rates to neutral, according to economists at Deutsche Bank. Watch Live (due to start around 1340ET):

Fed Balance Sheet QT: -$98 Billion in November, -$2.07 Trillion from Peak, to $6.90 Trillion, Lowest since May 2020 By Wolf Richter Total assets on the Fed’s balance sheet dropped by $98 billion in November, to $6.896 trillion, the lowest since May 2020, according to the Fed’s weekly balance sheet today. One of the big drivers of the $98 billion drop in November was the bank panic facility BTFP, cobbled together over the weekend in March 2023 to deal with the fallout from the SVB collapse. It dropped by $39 billion in November, is down by 77% from the peak, and will be zero no later than March 11, 2025.And another QT milestone: Since the end of QE in April 2022, the Fed has shed $2.07 trillion in assets. It amounts to 23% of its holdings at the time. In terms of the assets piled on during pandemic QE, the Fed has now shed 43% of them..QT assets by category.

• Treasury securities: -$24 billion in November, -$1.46 trillion from peak in June 2022, or -25%, to $4.32 trillion, the lowest since August 2020.In terms of the $3.27 trillion pile of Treasuries added during pandemic QE, the Fed has now shed 45% of them.Treasury notes (2- to 10-year) and Treasury bonds (20- & 30-year) “roll off” the balance sheet mid-month and at the end of the month when they mature and the Fed gets paid face value. Since June, the roll-off has been capped at $25 billion per month. About that much rolled off in November, minus the amount of inflation protection the Fed earns on its Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS) that was added to the principal of the TIPS.
• Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS): -$17 billion in November, -$491 billion from the peak, to $2.25 trillion, the lowest since June 2021. The Fed has shed 36% of the MBS it had added during pandemic QE.MBS come off the balance sheet primarily via pass-through principal payments that holders receive when mortgages are paid off (mortgaged homes are sold, mortgages are refinanced) and when mortgage payments are made. But sales of existing homes have plunged to the lowest since 1995, and mortgage refinancing has collapsed. So fewer mortgages got paid off, and passthrough principal payments to MBS holders, such as the Fed, have been reduced to a trickle. As a result, MBS have come off the balance sheet at a pace that has been below $20 billion in most months.There has been some discussion at the Fed, including in October by Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan, about outright selling MBS to speed up the process of getting rid of them, and getting rid of all of the MBS even after QT ends, and replacing them with Treasury securities.The Fed only holds “agency” MBS that are guaranteed by the government, and is therefore not exposed to credit risk if borrowers default on mortgages.
• Bank liquidity facilities. The only two bank liquidity facilities that currently have a balance that’s above zero or near-zero are the Discount Window and the Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP). The other bank liquidity facilities that were heavily used after the SVB collapse are either at zero or near zero:
  • Central Bank Liquidity Swaps ($101 million)
  • Repos ($7 million)
  • Loans to the FDIC ($0)
• Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP): -$39 billion in November, to $17 billion, down 77% from the peak ($168 billion). The BTFP had a fatal flaw when it was conceived in March 2023 after SVB had failed: Its rate was based on a market rate. When Rate-Cut Mania kicked off in November 2023, market rates plunged even as the Fed’s policy rates were unchanged, including the 5.4% the Fed paid banks on reserves. Some banks then used the BTFP for arbitrage profits, borrowing at the BTFP at a lower market rate and leaving the cash in their reserve account at the Fed to earn 5.4%. This arbitrage caused the BTFP balances to spike to $168 billion..
• Discount Window: +$830 million in November, to $2.4 billion. During the bank panic in March 2023, loans had spiked to $153 billion.The Discount Window is the Fed’s classic liquidity supply to banks. As of the rate cut on November 7, the Fed charges banks 4.75% in interest on these loans and demands collateral at market value, which is expensive money for banks.In his battle to remove the stigma attached to borrowing at the Discount Window, Powell has been exhorting banks to use this facility more often, and practice using it with small-value exercise transactions, and to even get set up to use it, and to pre-position collateral so that they can use it when they need to. It’s a bit “clunky” to use, according to Powell.
• “Other assets”: $14.6 billion, mostly accrued interest on its bond holdings that the Fed had set up as a receivable, and that it got paid in November. When it gets paid interest, it destroys that money (the Fed doesn’t have a “cash” account, like companies do; it creates money when it pays for something and destroys money when it gets paid, such as when it gets paid interest).

Fed official calls for simpler, forward-looking monetary framework - The Federal Reserve's current monetary policy framework is too backward-looking and too hard for Americans to understand, according to one official with the central bank. Federal Reserve Gov. Christopher Waller said the central bank's last framework review was too focused on the post-global financial crisis period and difficult to explain.

Powell dismisses notion of 'shadow' Fed chair — Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is not worried about a so-called shadow chair undermining him during the Trump administration. The Federal Reserve chair is not concerned about President-elect Trump nominating his successor well in advance of the end of his term in 2026, saying he is "confident" he will have a productive relationship with the next Treasury Secretary.

Tariffs spell end to rate cuts - Wells Fargo Economists are figuring out the ramifications of tariffs proposed by the Trump administration on future rate cuts by the Federal Reserve by predicting the future inflation rate. Economic forecasts include the possibility of higher inflation and slower growth that could stall future cuts to the federal fund rates. "Do I lay awake at night worrying about the debt and the deficit of U.S. government right now?" said Jay Bryson, chief economist at Wells Fargo. "No, I don't, largely because there's no alternative to Treasury securities. They are the deepest, most liquid, transparent financial market in the world."’

Labor growth rebounds, Fed rate cut remains likely -The labor market resumed its solid pace of growth in November, providing evidence that the U.S. economy remains strong, although a rate cut from the Federal Reserve this month remains likely. After hurricanes and strikes stalled job growth in October, the economy added 227,000 jobs in November.

Labor Market Doing Fine. The Fed Can be “Careful” with Rate Cuts. Maybe Time for Some Wait-and-See? -- By Wolf Richter - Payrolls jumped by 227,000 in November from October, and the prior two months were revised higher by a combined 56,000 jobs, which makes for an increase in payrolls of 283,000 for the month, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics today. The three-month average, which includes the revisions and effects of hurricanes and the Boeing strike, rose by 173,000 in November, a very solid increase. Today’s figures reflect a big bounce-back from the October figures, which had gotten hammered down by the Boeing strike and the effects of the hurricanes in September and October that temporarily shut many work sites. By mid-November, the end of the reference period for today’s data, many of these sites were back in operation. The Boeing strike ended on November 5, and many of these workers went back to work by the end of the survey reference period – the payroll that includes the 12th of November. So employment in Transportation Equipment Manufacturing jumped by 30,000 in November, after the strike-caused drop of 44,000 in October. Most of the remaining 14,000 workers that missed the mid-November cutoff will show up on the December payrolls data. The Boeing strike had caused the unemployment rate in Transportation Equipment Manufacturing to spike from 2.2% in September to 5.3% in October. In November, it dropped back to 3.7%. As the remaining workers went back to work after mid-November, the rate will likely drop further in December. Overall payrolls at employers rose by 227,000 jobs in November from October, and October was revised higher by 24,000 jobs and September by 32,000 jobs, for a total increase of 283,000 jobs, according the survey of establishments (blue line). The three-month average job creation — which irons out the downs and ups from the hurricanes and the Boeing strike, other month-to-month squiggles, and the revisions — increased by 173,000 jobs in November, a healthy number of job gains, right in the middle of the Good Times before the pandemic (red line). Average hourly earnings jumped by 4.5% annualized in November from October, and October’s gain was revised higher to +5.2% annualized (from the previously reported +4.5%), both the biggest wage gains since January (blue line). The three-month average rose by 4.5% annualized. Due to the upward revisions for October, the October three-month average jumped to +4.8%, from +4.5% reported a month ago. It’s from this upwardly revised 4.8% gain of the three-month average in October, that the 4.5% gain in November decelerated. Both of them were the biggest increases since January (red line). Year-over-year, average hourly earnings rose by 4.0% in November, same increase as in October, and both are the biggest year-over-year increases since March, and well above even the peaks of the 2017-2019 Good Times period. These wage gains are adding to the reborn inflation worries. The headline unemployment rate (U-3), based on the survey of households, edged up to 4.2% in November from 4.1% in October. Over the past seven months, the unemployment rate has stabilized at the historically low range of 4.0% to 4.3%, with July having been the high point. The unemployment rate = number of unemployed people who are actively looking for a job divided by the labor force (number of working people plus the number of people who are actively looking for work). The Fed, at the time of its rate-cut decision in September, projected an increase in the unemployment rate to 4.4% by the end of 2024 and 2025, according to the Fed’s most recent Summary of Economic Projections released at the September meeting (it’s going to release an updated SEP at the December meeting). This projection of a continued increase in the unemployment rate was one of the reasons for the rate cuts. But the unemployment rate has stabilized below the Fed’s median projection so far. The recent tsunami of migrants – causing a net population increase estimated by the Congressional Budget Office of 6 million in 2022 and 2023, plus some in 2024 – is hard to track for the household employment data because proportionately fewer of them respond to the household surveys. In addition, the BLS uses the Census Bureau’s population data to extrapolate the survey data to the overall population. But the Census Bureau’s data that the BLS uses hasn’t been updated to reflect the wave of migrants, which is why the CBO came up with its own estimates, based on ICE data in addition to Census Bureau data. The BLS will revise the household survey data in January, hopefully based on updated population data that would include more of the migrants. And if that is the case, we expect large up-revisions of overall employment, the labor force, and related metrics. The household data has been in the fog for two years.

Fed's Beige Book: "Economic activity rose slightly" - Fed's Beige Book - Economic activity rose slightly in most Districts. Three regions exhibited modest or moderate growth that offset flat or slightly declining activity in two others. Though growth in economic activity was generally small, expectations for growth rose moderately across most geographies and sectors. Business contacts expressed optimism that demand will rise in coming months. Consumer spending was generally stable. Many consumer-oriented businesses across Districts noted further increases in price sensitivity among consumers, as well as several reports of increased sensitivity to quality. Spending on home furnishings was down, which contacts attributed to limited household mobility. Demand for mortgages was low overall, though reports on recent changes in home loan demand were mixed due to volatility in rates. Commercial real estate lending was similarly subdued. Still, contacts generally reported financing remained available. Capital spending and purchases of raw materials were flat or declining in most Districts. Sales of farm equipment were a notable headwind to overall investment activity, and several contacts expressed concerns about the future prices of equipment given ongoing weakness in the farm economy. Energy activity in the oil and gas sector was flat but demand for electricity generation continued to grow at a robust rate. The rise in electricity demand was driven by rapid expansions in data centers and was reportedly planned to be met by investments in renewable generation capacity in coming years. Employment levels were flat or up only slightly across Districts. Hiring activity was subdued as worker turnover remained low and few firms reported increasing their headcount. The level of layoffs was also reportedly low. Contacts indicated they expected employment to remain steady or rise slightly over the next year, but many were cautious in their optimism about any pickup in hiring activity. Prices rose only at a modest pace across Federal Reserve Districts. Both consumer-oriented and business-oriented contacts reported greater difficulty passing costs on to customers.

Unexpectedly Hawkish Beige Book Finds Economic Activity "Rose" In Most Districts As "Slowness" Tumbles --Back in September, the otherwise sleepy and mostly boring report that is the Fed's Beige Book report (which nobody otherwise reads due to its sheer size and dismal signal-to-noise ratio) got a sudden boost of notoriety and popularity when none other than Jerome Powell explained after the Fed's 50bps rate cut, that he had been closely following the Beige Book which had emerged as a driving force behind the Fed's unexpected "jumbo" 50bps rate cut. And unlike others, we actually do read the Beige Book, which is why two weeks before the FOMC rate cut we titled our analysis of the latest report as follows: "Ugly Beige Book Reveals Economic Activity "Flat Or Declining", Consumer Spending Slowing In Most Districts." So one can see why Powell panicked and why two rate cuts followed in September and November, just days after the election.Fast forward to today when moments ago the Fed published its latest, December, Beige Book which suggested that a reversal of the sluggish, "flat or declining" conditions observed in September and November is underway, and which together with a strong jobs report on Friday may be sufficient to enable the Fed to pause rate cuts for the foreseeable future, especially now that Donald Trump is in the White House. According to the Fed's latest report, economic activity "rose slightly in most Districts", a clear improvement from the descriptions used in the previous months, and that "three regions exhibited modest or moderate growth that offset flat or slightly declining activity in two others." Employment levels were flat or up only slightly across districts and prices rose only at a modest pace across Federal Reserve districts. Reading further, we find yet another indication of the Trump effect, namely that although growth in economic activity was generally small (thank Biden), expectations for growth rose moderately across most geographies and sectors (thanks Trump) and "business contacts expressed optimism that demand will rise in coming months." Elsewhere, we find that consumer spending was "generally stable" although many consumer-oriented businesses across Districts noted further increases in price sensitivity among consumers, as well as several reports of increased sensitivity to quality. Among the negative aspects, spending on home furnishings was down, which contacts attributed to limited household mobility, while demand for mortgages was low overall, though reports on recent changes in home loan demand were mixed due to volatility in rates. Commercial real estate lending was similarly subdued. Still, contacts generally reported financing remained available.Turning to capital spending and purchases of raw materials, these were flat or declining in most Districts while sales of farm equipment were a notable headwind to overall investment activity, and several contacts expressed concerns about the future prices of equipment given ongoing weakness in the farm economy. Energy activity in the oil and gas sector was flat but demand for electricity generation continued to grow at a robust rate. The rise in electricity demand was driven by rapid expansions in data centers and was reportedly planned to be met by investments in renewable generation capacity in coming years. Some more details from the Beige Book, starting with Labor Markets:

• Employment levels were flat or up only slightly across Districts.
• Hiring activity was subdued as worker turnover remained low and few firms reported increasing their headcount.
• The level of layoffs was also reportedly low. Contacts indicated they expected employment to remain steady or rise slightly over the next year, but many were cautious in their optimism about any pickup in hiring activity.
• Wage growth softened to a modest pace across most Districts, as did expectations for wage growth in coming months.
• Job growth and wage growth for entry-level positions and skilled trades were an exception, rising robustly and expected to grow further through next year.

While Friday's jobs report will have more to say about this, today's ADP report which indicated a sharp bounce in wage growth suggests that the Fed is now working on stale wage data. nTurning to prices:

• Prices rose only at a modest pace across Federal Reserve Districts.
• Both consumer-oriented and business-oriented contacts reported greater difficulty passing costs on to customers.
• Input prices were said to be rising faster than selling prices for most businesses, resulting in declining profit margins.
• Although input prices rose generally, contacts in several Districts noted declines in certain raw materials and non-labor costs.
• In contrast, rising insurance prices were again reported widely as significant costs pressures for many businesses.
• Contacts indicated they expect the current pace of price growth to persist, but businesses in several Districts indicated tariffs pose a significant upside risk to inflation.

Here are the main highlights by Fed District

• Boston: Economic activity was down a bit on balance. Prices increased at a slight pace. Employment held steady despite a slowdown in hiring demand. Consumers held back on restaurant spending. Warm, dry weather crimped demand for selected goods. Commercial real estate contacts perceived stabilization in the office sector. Expectations were mixed, marked by uncertainty among many contacts.
• New York: On balance, regional economic activity expanded slightly, led by strong growth in the manufacturing sector. Employment in the region grew slightly, and wage growth remained moderate. Commercial real estate markets steadied after a period of weakness, with a pickup in demand in the New York City office market. Selling price increases remained modest.
• Philadelphia: Business activity edged up in the current Beige Book period after falling slightly last period. Consumer spending was flat overall, but the broader nonmanufacturing sector edged up, and manufacturers reported modest growth. Employment, wages, and prices all rose modestly, but inflation expectations edged higher over concerns about potential tariffs. On average, firms expect moderate economic growth over the next six months.
• Cleveland: District business activity grew modestly in recent weeks, and contacts expected activity to increase further in the months ahead. Demand for business services remained robust, and nonresidential construction activity increased modestly. Employment levels grew slightly. Overall, contacts indicated that wages, nonlabor input costs, and prices increased modestly.
• Richmond: The regional economy grew slightly in recent weeks. Some negative impacts from Hurricane Helene and the port worker strike were reported by businesses in affected regions and segments of the economy. Employment was little changed this cycle, while wages grew moderately and price levels were little changed, leading to reports of profit margin compression for businesses.
• Atlanta: Economic activity in the Sixth District grew. Employment was steady and wages grew slowly. Input costs and prices were little changed. Retail sales improved slightly. Tourism declined modestly. Demand for housing deteriorated. Transportation activity grew slightly. Loan growth was modest. Manufacturing fell, and energy activity grew modestly.
• Chicago: Economic activity increased slightly. Consumer and business spending rose modestly; employment was up slightly; construction and real estate activity was flat; nonbusiness contacts saw little change in activity; and manufacturing activity decreased modestly. Prices were up modestly, wages rose moderately, and financial conditions loosened slightly. Prospects for 2024 farm income were unchanged.
• St. Louis: Economic activity across the Eighth District has slightly increased since our previous report. Prices increased moderately, with greater pushback against those price increases. Consumer spending has slightly declined across the income distribution. Contacts expected slight growth in employment, particularly coming from industrial production. The outlook has modestly improved; however, contacts noted that uncertainty about future policies was slowing investment, and businesses were increasing inventories in anticipation of potential import tariffs.
• Minneapolis: District economic activity increased slightly. Employment grew, but labor demand softened, and turnover was down. Wage growth was moderate, and prices increased slightly. Consumer spending was flat, but tourism increased. Energy, commercial construction, and residential real estate also saw growth while manufacturing and homebuilding decreased.
• Kansas City: Economic growth was modest and balanced across sectors. Expectations for demand growth were strong and supported plans to increase hiring and capital expenditures. Most contacts indicated they do not plan to raise wages substantially over the next year. Yet, the outlook for consumer spending remained strong, even as customers became more sensitive to prices and quality.
• Dallas: Economic activity rose moderately over the reporting period. Growth continued in nonfinancial services and resumed in manufacturing and retail. Employment increased, and wage growth ticked up. Outlooks improved, with widespread increases in demand expectations. Interest rate cuts have had an overall positive but mild effect, and contacts were mostly bullish on prospective business conditions under the incoming administration, though some noted worry about potential trade and immigration policy changes.
• San Francisco: Economic activity was stable. Employment levels were generally unchanged, and wages and prices increased slightly. Retail sales and activity in services sectors changed little. Activity in manufacturing, residential real estate, and financial services increased somewhat, while conditions in commercial real estate were stable. Conditions in agriculture softened slightly

And in keeping with the argument that the Dec Beige Book was much more hawkish than many expected, a quick semantic analysis finds that mentions of "slow" collapsed from 55 in October and an average of 56 in the past year to just 29, the lowest since the covid surge. Meanwhile, inflation remained sticky with 12 mentions, up 1 from last month and the highest since April. Bottom line: if the September Beige Book is what ultimately tipped the scales for the Fed to cut 50bps, then the December Beige Book is the first solid hint that a Fed pause may take place as soon as this month (which is perfectly understandable since Trump is now in the White House and the Fed will do everything in its power to make his life miserable).

Fed's Kugler: Immigration, productivity behind strong economy -- Federal Reserve Board Gov. Adriana Kugler defended the Fed's recent rate cuts as appropriate steps toward a more neutral policy stance, given what she described as currently "solid economic conditions." Federal Reserve Gov. Adriana Kugler credited immigration and rising productivity for the U.S. economy's resilience while emphasizing vigilance against risks to inflation and employment stability.

Q4 GDP Tracking: 2.1% to 3.3% Range - From BofA: Since our last weekly publication, our 3Q GDP tracking estimate has moved up a tenth to 2.9% q/q saar from the second official print of 2.8% q/q saar. Additionally, we initiated our 4Q US GDP tracker on Nov 15th with the October retail sales print. Since then, our 4Q US GDP tracker has gone up one-tenth from our official forecast of 2.0% to 2.1%. [Dec 6th estimate] From Goldman: We left our Q4 GDP tracking and domestic final sales estimates unchanged at +2.4% and +2.0%, respectively. [Dec 5th estimate]And from the Atlanta Fed: GDPNow The GDPNow model estimate forreal GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2024 is 3.3 percent on December 5, up from 3.2 percent on December 2. After recent releases from the US Census Bureau, the Institute for Supply Management, and the US Bureau of Economic Analysis, the nowcast of fourth-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth increased from 1.2 percent to 1.8 percent.

Treasury Yields: A Long-Term Perspective - This article looks at a long-term perspective on Treasury yields. The chart below shows the 10-year constant-maturity yield since 1962 along with the Fed funds rate (FFR) and inflation. The range has been astonishing. The stagflation that set in after the 1973 Oil Embargo was finally ended after Paul Volcker raised the FFR to 20.06%. As of November 29, 2024, the 10-year note was 366 basis points above its historic closing low of 0.52% reached on August 4, 2020. 10-year bond yield, fed funds rate, and inflation since 1962 Now let's overlay the S&P 500 to see the historical pattern of equities versus Treasury securities. This is a nominal chart, which significantly distorted the real value of both yields and equity prices. 10-year bond yield, fed funds rate, and inflation since 1962 overlayed with S&P 500 Here's the same chart with the S&P 500 and 10-year yields adjusted for inflation using the CPI. The impact of stagflation becomes much clearer. We can better understand the severity of the decline in equities from the mid-1960s to the bottom in 1982. And we can also see why high yields can be deceptive in periods of double-digit inflation. 10-year bond yield, fed funds rate, and inflation since 1962 overlayed with S&P 500 (inflation adjusted) The most interesting series in the charts is the FFR red line. We can see how the Fed has used rates to control inflation, accelerate growth and, when needed, apply the brakes. The FFR was virtually zero from 2008 through 2016 and again starting in 2020 through mid-2022. It's not obvious that the Fed has done a great job stimulating the economy, but the S&P has risen to record levels over the last decade. Additionally, even when rates were at record highs in the late 1980s, the S&P did not plummet. I've annotated the top chart with the tenures of the Fed chairmen so we can see who was managing the various FFR cycles since 1960. The next chart is based on daily data and adds some additional Treasury maturities for a close look at yields since 2007. Daily Treasury Yields overlayed since 2007. Now let's see the 10-year against the S&P 500 with some notes on Fed intervention. For a more frequent look, we update our Treasury Yield Snapshot on a bi-weekly basis.

Business Cycle Indicators for October, Including Monthly GDP – Menzie Chinn - Here are key indicators followed by the NBER’s Business Cycle Dating Committee (top indicators employment and person income) plus monthly GDP from S&P (nee Macroeconomic Advisers nee IHS Markit): Figure 1: Nonfarm Payroll (NFP) employment from CES (blue), implied NFP from preliminary benchmark (bold blue), civilian employment (orange), industrial production (red), personal income excluding current transfers in Ch.2017$ (bold light green), manufacturing and trade sales in Ch.2017$ (black), consumption in Ch.2017$ (light blue), and monthly GDP in Ch.2017$ (pink), GDP (blue bars), all log normalized to 2021M11=0. Source: BLS via FRED, Federal Reserve, BEA 2024Q3 2nd release, S&P Global Market Insights (nee Macroeconomic Advisers, IHS Markit) (12/2/2024 release), and author’s calculations.From S&P Global Market Insights: Monthly GDP rose 0.3% in October, largely reversing a 0.4% decline in September that was revised from a previously reported 0.3% decline. The increase in monthly GDP in October was accounted for by a large increase in net exports. Final sales to domestic purchasers posted a small decline, while nonfarm inventory investment posted a small increase.S&PGMI and Goldman Sachs tracking as of yesterday were 1.6% and 2.4%, respectively, for Q4, while GDPNow was 3.2%. NY Fed and St Louis Fed were at 1.9% and 1.31%, respectively, as of 11/29.Here are alternative indicators: Figure 2: Nonfarm Payroll early benchmark (NFP) (bold blue), civilian employment adjusted using CBO immigration estimates through mid-2024 (orange), manufacturing production (red), personal income excluding current transfers in Ch.2017$ (light green), retail sales in 1999M12$ (black), vehicle miles traveled (chartreuse), and coincident index (pink), GDO (blue bars), all log normalized to 2021M11=0. Early benchmark is official NFP adjusted by ratio of early benchmark sum-of-states to CES sum of states. Source: Philadelphia Fed, Federal Reserve via FRED, BEA 2024Q3 2nd release, and author’s calculations.

Biden administration pledges “massive surge” of weapons to Ukraine -- US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan said Sunday that the outgoing Biden administration is planning a “massive surge” of weapons to Ukraine in the seven weeks until the next administration takes office. “President Biden directed me to oversee a massive surge in the military equipment that we are delivering to Ukraine so that we have spent every dollar that Congress has appropriated to us by the time that President Biden leaves office,” Sullivan said Sunday on ABC’s This Week interview program. “We are going to do everything in our power for these 50 days to get Ukraine all the tools we possibly can to strengthen their position on the battlefield,” he added. Since the November 5, 2024 presidential election, the Biden administration has enormously expanded the scale of direct US military intervention into the Ukraine war. On November 9, the Biden administration authorized the deployment of US military contractors in Ukraine to service advanced weapons, such as tanks, fighter jets and long-range weapons. A week later, on November 17, Biden authorized Ukraine to use US-made ATACMS long-range missiles to strike deep inside Russia. Later that week, the UK did the same with its Storm Shadow cruise missiles, with both weapons systems being used to strike deep inside Russia within days of the announcement. On November 19, Biden authorized the provision of anti-personnel land mines to Ukraine, a weapon that is banned by multiple international treaties for its propensity to kill civilians, especially children, long after conflicts are over. On November 21, the New York Times reported that the Biden administration is discussing allowing Ukraine to deploy nuclear weapons. The Times wrote that “Several officials even suggested that Mr. Biden could allow Ukraine to have nuclear weapons again, as it did before the fall of the Soviet Union. That would be an instant and enormous deterrent. But such a step would be complicated and have serious implications.” The report prompted a response from former Russian President Dimitri Medvedev, who warned, “American politicians and journalists are seriously discussing the consequences of transferring nuclear weapons to Kiev.” Medvedev said that “the very threat of transferring nuclear weapons to the Kiev regime can be considered as preparation for a nuclear conflict with Russia,” adding that “the actual transfer of such weapons can be equated to an accomplished act of attack on our country.” In his interview on ABC on Sunday, Sullivan was asked to respond directly to the Times report, which was quoted at length by moderator Jonathan Karl. Sullivan denied the Times’ claims, saying: “That is not under consideration. No. What we are doing is surging various conventional capacities to Ukraine so that they can effectively defend themselves and take the fight to the Russians, not nuclear capability.”

US announces new $725 million military package for Ukraine (AP) — The U.S. is preparing to send Ukraine an additional $725 million in military assistance, including counter-drone systems and munitions for its High Mobility Artillery Rocket System, which could indicate more of the longer-range missiles are headed to the battlefield.It was unclear whether the munitions for the HIMARS are the coveted ATACMS — the Army Tactical Missile System — but Ukraine has been pressing for more of the longer-range missiles to strike additional targets inside Russia.The package, announced Monday by the State Department, also includes more of the anti-personnel land mines that Ukraine is counting on to slow Russian and North Korean ground forces in Russia’s Kursk region.President Joe Biden has pledged to spend all of the military assistance funds Congress approved this year for Ukraine before the end of his administration on Jan. 20, which before Monday’s announcement included about $7.1 billion in weapons that would be drawn from the Pentagon’s stockpiles.There is widespread speculation about what the new Trump administration will mean for Ukraine as the incoming president has promised to end the conflict. In a major shift, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy signaled on Friday that an an offer of NATO membership to territory under Kyiv’s control could end “the hot stage of the war.”

US Announces New $725 Million Arms Package for Ukraine - The Biden administration on Monday announced a new $725 million weapons package for Ukraine, which includes anti-personnel mines, ammunition for the HIMARS rocket systems, and other equipment.President Biden just recently approved the provision of anti-personnel mines for Ukraine, a step that goes against his own policy meant to limit the use of the indiscriminate weapon. In 2022, Biden re-implemented an Obama-era policy that prohibited the transfer and use of US anti-personnel mines outside of the Korean Peninsula.Biden’s decision to send the mines has been condemned by arms control groups and many countries that are signatories to a treaty banning the weapon. The mines, which are designed to kill or maim people, have been banned by 164 countries under the Ottawa Treaty. The US and Russia are not signatories, but Ukraine is and has been in violation of the treaty.According to The Associated Press, the purpose of the mines is for Ukraine to use them inside Russian territory in the Kursk Oblast, where Russian troops are gradually pushing out an invading Ukrainian force.The provision of ammunition for the HIMARS systems means the US could be sending more Army Tactical Missile Systems (ATACMS), which have a range of about 190 miles and are fired by the HIMARS. Two US officials who spoke to the AP wouldn’t confirm if the new package includes ATACMS.According to the Pentagon, the $725 million package includes:

• Munitions for National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile Systems (NASAMS)
• Stinger missiles
• Counter-Unmanned Aerial Systems (c-UAS) munitions
• Ammunition for HIMARS
• 155mm and 105mm artillery ammunition
• Unmanned Aerial Systems (UAS)
• Non-persistent land mines
• Tube-launched, Optically tracked, Wire-guided (TOW) missiles
• Javelin and AT-4 anti-armor systems
• Small arms and ammunition
• Demolitions equipment and munitions
• Equipment to protect critical national infrastructure
• Spare parts, ancillary equipment, services, training, and transportation

The Biden administration is looking to flood Ukraine with as many weapons as it can before President-elect Donald Trump is inaugurated on January 20, 2025. President Biden has asked Congress to authorize another $24 billion for the proxy war before he leaves office, which would bring total US spending on the conflict to at least $210 billion.

Blinken heads to final NATO foreign ministers meeting of Biden administration with Ukraine in focus (AP) — Secretary of State Antony Blinken is heading back to Europe on Monday for what will likely be the last high-level NATO meeting before the Biden administration leaves office next month. Shoring up allied support for Ukraine ahead of President-elect Donald Trump ‘s return to the White House in January will top the agenda at NATO foreign ministers meetings in Brussels on Tuesday and Wednesday, according to the State Department. Blinken will “discuss priorities for transatlantic security, including supporting Ukraine’s fight against Russia’s invasion, deepening cooperation with NATO’s southern partners in the Middle East, North Africa, and Sahel regions, and preparing for the upcoming summit at The Hague,” the department said in a statement. Outgoing President Joe Biden will not be in power when NATO leaders gather for their next summit in June but he has stepped up the delivery of weapons and other materiel to Ukraine over the past several months and has also eased restrictions on how Kyiv can use them. Biden’s goal is to put Ukraine in the best position possible to negotiate a settlement and has come as Moscow has made significant advances in the conflict and North Korean troops have moved to assist Russian forces. By contrast, Trump has been skeptical of the U.S. assistance and has suggested that his administration will sharply curtail or end it. He has also appointed former Gen. Keith Kellogg to oversee efforts to mediate an end to the war. From Brussels, Blinken will travel to Malta where he will attend a Thursday meeting of foreign ministers from the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe, a group that has been challenged by recent developments in Ukraine, Georgia and elsewhere.

NATO Chief Wants Less Talk of Ukraine Peace, More Arms Shipments - NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte said Tuesday that the alliance shouldn’t be talking about what a peace process would look like for Ukraine but should instead be focused on sending more weapons to the country. Ahead of the start of a two-day NATO foreign ministers meeting in Brussels, Rutte was asked about potential offers to help bring an end to the war and said, “I would argue, let’s not have all these discussions step by step on what a peace process might look like. Make sure that Ukraine has what it needs to get to a position of strength when those peace talks start, when the Ukrainian government has decided they are ready to do so.”Rutte said the meetings of NATO foreign ministers will be focused on how to get more weapons to Ukraine. “So I would say more military aid and less discussions on what a peace process could look like,” he said. Rutte’s comments align with the Biden administration’s plans to pour as many weapons as they can into Ukraine before President-elect Donald Trump, who campaigned on ending the war, is inaugurated on January 20, 2025. In recent weeks, President Biden has signed off on significant escalations, including NATO-supported long-range strikes in Russia and the provision of widely banned anti-personnel mines. Ukrainian leader Volodymyr Zelensky recently suggested that he could temporarily cede territory to Russia in exchange for NATO protection over Ukraine, which marks a shift in his previous position that the war could only end once Russia is driven out by force. But the new suggestion is still a non-starter for Moscow since Russia’s main demand has been Ukrainian neutrality and it won’t accept an arrangement that gives Ukraine NATO membership.

House Speaker Mike Johnson Rejects Biden Request for Additional Ukraine Spending - House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) on Wednesday rejected a request from President Biden to include additional spending for the proxy war in Ukraine as part of a continuing resolution Congress is expected to pass before the end of the year.The White House’s Office of Management and Budget asked Congress for an additional $24 billion, which included $8 billion in funds to purchase weapons for Ukraine and $16 billion to replace US military equipment that’s been sent to Ukraine.Johnson, who advanced a $61 billion spending bill for Ukraine earlier this year, said any additional spending on the war would be up to President-elect Donald Trump.“As we predicted and as I said to all of you, weeks before the election, if Donald Trump is elected it will change the dynamic of the Russian war on Ukraine, and we’re seeing that happen,” Johnson told reporters, according to The Hill.“So, it is not the place of Joe Biden to make that decision now, we have a newly elected president and we’re going to wait and take the new commander in chief’s direction on all that so I don’t expect any Ukraine funding to come up now,” he added.Trump campaigned on ending the proxy war but it remains a question how he will do that. Trump’s pick to be the envoy to the conflict, Keith Kellog, is a Russia hawk who previously criticized President Biden for not doing enough for Ukraine. He has also suggested conditioning future aid to Ukraine on the condition that Kyiv enter negotiations.

Biden administration pledges $1M in weapons support to Ukraine -The Biden administration announced on Saturday nearly $1 million in arms support for Ukraine, the Department of Defense said in a press release.The $988 million assistance package will provide the country with munitions for rocket systems and unmanned aerial systems (UAS) and support for maintenance and repair programs to help Ukraine’s military “build and sustain combat power,” the release read. The package marks 22 through the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative (USAI).The assistance comes amid the nearly three-year war between Ukraine and Russia, which invaded the country in February 2022. Earlier this week, House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) rejected a White House request to pass$24 billion in additional aid for Ukraine by the end of the year, saying any further assistance for Kyiv would be decided by President-elect Trump when he assumes office in January.Trump has claimed he would end the Russia-Ukraine war in one day, though concerns over whether the president-elect’s incoming administration would be as supportive of Ukraine as Biden’s.Last month, President Biden authorized Ukraine to use U.S.-supplied missiles to strike further into Russia, which lawmakers on both sides of the aisle generally supported so that Ukraine could better defend itself against Russia.

Canadian Government Bans More Types of Guns, Wants To Send Them to Ukraine - The Canadian government announced on Thursday that it was prohibiting its citizens from owning another 324 types of firearms and is working to send them to Ukraine.“As part of its comprehensive approach, on December 5, 2024, the Government announced the prohibition of more military-style assault-style firearms,” Canada’s Public Safety Department said in a press release. “Amendments to the Classification Regulations have resulted in the prohibition of 104 families of firearms, encompassing 324 unique makes and models.”Canadians who own the newly banned guns have an amnesty until October 30, 2025, and during that time, the government will implement a buy-back program. Canadian Defense Minister Bill Blair said the government is in talks with Ukraine about sending them the firearms.“We’ve been working very closely with our friends in Ukraine to ensure that weapons that were intended to be used in combat, could be made available to them,” Blair said.“The Department of National Defence will begin working with the Canadian companies that have weapons that Ukraine needs and which are already eligible for the assault-style firearm compensation program, in order to get these weapons out of Canada, and into the hands of the Ukrainians,” Blair added. Historically, Ukraine has had one of the largest black markets for weapons, and there has been very little oversight when it comes to Western military aid to the country. The Pentagon’s inspector general said in a report last year that some Western-provided weapons had been stolenby criminals, volunteer fighters, and arms traffickers.

Blinken Says Ukraine Must Send Younger People Into War - Secretary of State Antony Blinken said Wednesday that Ukraine needs to send younger people to fight Russian forces as the US is pressuring Ukraine to start conscripting teenagers for combat.Ukraine’s current minimum conscription age is 25, and the US wants it lowered to 18. Ukrainians ages 18 to 25 can join the military to fight but cannot be forced into combat under the latest mobilization law.“These are very hard decisions, and I fully both understand that and respect that,” Blinken told Reuters in an interview with Reuters at NATO headquarters in Brussels. “But for example, getting younger people into the fight, we think, many of us think, is necessary. Right now, 18 to 25-year-olds are not in the fight.”NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte echoed Blinken’s comments. “We have to make sure, obviously, also that enough people are available within Ukraine,” he said. “We need probably more people to move to the front line.”The call from Blinken comes as it’s clear there’s no path to a Ukrainian military victory, but the Biden administration is doing everything it can to escalate the proxy war before President-elect Donald Trump is inaugurated on January 20. Ukrainians are also ready for an end to the war, as a recent Gallup poll found that the majority of Ukrainians, 52%,want peace talks with Russia to end the conflict.

Blinken Is Pushing For Ukrainian Teens To Die For US Hegemony -- Caitlin Johnstone - US Secretary of State Antony Blinken repeated the US government’s new position that Ukraine needs to start sending 18 to 25 year-olds to fight in its war with Russia, telling Reuters on Monday that “getting younger people into the fight, we think, many of us think, is necessary.” This comes even as pollshave begun showing that Ukrainians favor making a deal with Russia to end this war as quickly as possible. This is one of those things that looks more evil the longer you stare at it. They’re pushing for teenagers to be thrown into the fires of an unwinnable war like it’s nothing — like a corporation saying they need to hire more staff to accommodate their growing business. And why? To tie up Russia so that Syria can be turned into a smoking crater and allow the US war machine to focus its crosshairs on Iran and China, with the end goal of total planetary domination. All because some swamp monsters decided after the fall of the Soviet Unionthat the US must maintain unipolar global hegemony no matter the cost. Ukraine barely even has anyone in the country from ages 18 to 25 for various reasons (many of which predate this war), but the managers of the US-centralized empire are pushing to scrape out the few they do have and toss them into the landmines and artillery fire just to keep this unwinnable war going for a few more months. Whether they succeed or not, the fact that they even tried is so profoundly psychopathic it’s actually hard to wrap your mind around. You won’t see anyone in Tony Blinken’s family headed to the frontlines in Ukraine. These freaks see the population of this planet as nothing more than pawns on their grand chessboard, and they will sacrifice them just as casually.

US Backs Protesters in Georgia, Slams Government for Postponing EU Talks - The US has strongly condemned Georgia’s decision to postpone talks on joining the European Union and is backing anti-government protesters in the country. Georgian Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze announced he would push back talks with the EU on Thursday after the European Parliament claimed the recent parliamentary election in Georgia, which saw the ruling Georgian Dream party win 54% of the vote, was “neither free nor fair.” Last month, the EU said it had halted Georgia’s accession talks, accusing the country of “going backward.” Kobakhidze said Georgia would not accept any grants from the EU until 2028, the year he said the country would “be adequately prepared economically to open negotiations to become a member in 2030.” In response, US Ambassador to Georgia Robin L. Dunnigan said the Georgia government’s decision was the “latest in a series of actions that again calls into question this government’s commitment to a Western path.” The State Department announced it was suspending a “strategic partnership” it had with Georgia in response to the move. Kobakhidze downplayed the move, saying Georgia will deal with the incoming Trump administration. Kobakhidze also rejected the idea that he was halting Georgia’s European integration, saying the EU’s actions were the real issue. “The only thing we have rejected is the shameful and offensive blackmail, which was, in fact, a significant obstacle to our country’s European integration,” he said. The US also condemned Georgia’s response to protests that began after Kobakhidze’s announcement and continued through Sunday. “I call on the government to respect the rights of Georgian citizens to peacefully protest and to respect the freedom of the press to cover the protests unmolested,” Dunnigan said.

Donald Trump threatens 'hell' for Middle East if Hamas doesn't release hostages -- President-elect Trump on Monday threatened to unleash “hell” in the Middle East if hostages held by Hamas in the Gaza Strip are not released before his inauguration Jan. 20, underscoring urgency to President Biden’s efforts to secure a hostage release and ceasefire deal in his final months in office. In a post on his social media site, Truth Social, Trump demanded the hostages be released before his inauguration or that there will be “ALL HELL TO PAY in the Middle East” against the perpetrators. “Those responsible will be hit harder than anybody has been hit in the long and storied History of the United States of America. RELEASE THE HOSTAGES NOW!,” he wrote in the post. The president-elect’s statement follows confirmation Monday that American Israeli Omer Neutra, who was believed to be alive and held hostage in Gaza, was killed during Hamas’s Oct. 7 attack but that his body has been held captive by the U.S.-designated terrorist organization. “Everybody is talking about the hostages who are being held so violently, inhumanely, and against the will of the entire World, in the Middle East – But it’s all talk, and no action!,” Trump wrote. Biden has committed to renewing diplomatic efforts to secure a ceasefire and hostage release deal with Hamas before leaving office. The administration has said Hamas is the main obstacle to achieving a ceasefire deal, but critics of Israel Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu blame him for rejecting proposals to draw down Israel’s military presence in the Gaza Strip. In September, Biden said Netanyahu was not doing enough to achieve a deal to bring the hostages home. In a statement reacting to Neutra’s confirmed death, Biden said, “And to all the families of those still held hostage: We see you. We are with you. And I will not stop working to bring your loved ones back home where they belong.” Neutra, from Long Island, N.Y., was a volunteer in the Israeli military and was serving as a tank commander on the border near Gaza when Hamas launched its attack. His parents Ronen and Orna Neutra became one of the most outspoken family members of hostages held by Hamas, addressing the Republican National Convention advocating for their son’s release. Neutra is one of 101 hostages, including seven Americans, held by Hamas for more than a year. On Saturday, Hamas released a propaganda video showing American Israeli Edan Alexander alive but warning that “time is running out” to secure his release. In the video, made under duress, Alexander calls for Trump to “use your influence and the full power of the United States to negotiate our freedom.” Alexander also said he doesn’t want to end up dead like fellow American Israeli Hersh Goldberg-Polin, who was killed by Hamas in late August as Israeli soldiers closed in on where he and other hostages were being held. “Seeing my son alive for the first time in over a year gave us hope but reignited our urgency,” Adi Alexander, Edan’s father, said at a rally in New York on Sunday. “Edan’s haunting words — ‘Every day here feels like an eternity’ — demand action. President Biden, President-elect Trump, Prime Minister Netanyahu: This is a moment for courage, collaboration and decisive action. Strength means nothing without action.”

Trump Says There Will Be 'All Hell To Pay' If Hamas Doesn't Release Hostages Before His Inauguration - President-elect Donald Trump warned in a post on Truth Social on Monday that there would be “all hell to pay” if Hamas doesn’t release the remaining Israeli hostages before his inauguration.“Everybody is talking about the hostages who are being held so violently, inhumanely, and against the will of the entire World, in the Middle East – But it’s all talk, and no action!” Trump wrote. “Please let this TRUTH serve to represent that if the hostages are not released prior to January 20, 2025, the date that I proudly assume Office as President of the United States, there will be ALL HELL TO PAY in the Middle East, and for those in charge who perpetrated these atrocities against Humanity.”A hostage and ceasefire deal between Israel and Hamas appeared to be close earlier this year, but Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu worked to sabotage it, a fact that’s been widely acknowledged by Israeli media outlets and Israeli officials.Trump added in his post, “Those responsible will be hit harder than anybody has been hit in the long and storied History of the United States of America. RELEASE THE HOSTAGES NOW!”Trump’s threat came after Hamas released a video of Edan Alexander, an Israeli-American IDF soldier who was taken hostage during the October 7 attack on southern Israel. In the video, Alexander addressed Trump and called on him to use his “influence and the full power of the United States to negotiate for our freedom.”On Monday, Israel also confirmed the death of Omer Maxim Neutra, a New York-born IDF tank commander. Israel said he was killed during the October 7 attack while stationed in a tank on the Gaza border and his body has been held by Hamas.Hamas said a total of 33 Israeli hostages had been killed in Gaza due to Israel’s onslaught, and others have gone missing. Hamas recently said Israeli airstrikes killed a female hostage in northern Gaza, a claim the Israeli military said it couldn’t confirm or deny. There are believed to be 97 Israeli hostages remaining in Gaza, and Israeli media reported back in September that Netanyahu told a Knesset committee that only half of the hostages were believed to be alive.The Israeli newspaper Haaretz reported in October that the Israeli government was done with ceasefire talks and was instead focused on annexing portions of the Gaza Strip. There’s been some recent efforts by mediators to restart talks, but there’s no sign the effort is going anywhere.On the campaign trail, Trump called for peace in the Middle East but also signaled he would strongly back Israel’s genocidal war on Gaza. Heaccused President Biden of “abandoning” Israel even though the Biden administration has provided more military aid to Israel in a single year than the US has ever before.

Hamas Responds to Trump's Threat, Says It Should Be Directed at Netanyahu - On Tuesday, a Hamas official responded to President-elect Donald Trump’s warning that there would be “all hell to pay” if Israeli hostages in Gaza weren’t released by his inauguration on January 20, 2025.Trump didn’t mention Hamas by name in his warning but appeared to threaten US strikes on the Palestinian group, saying, “Those responsible will be hit harder than anybody has been hit in the long and storied History of the United States of America.”Basem Naim, a senior member of Hamas’s political bureau, said Trump’s threat should be directed at Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, citing his efforts to sabotage a hostage and ceasefire deal. Israeli officialsand media reports have also blamed Netanyahu for the lack of a deal.“Hamas understands that Trump’s message is, in fact, directed primarily at Netanyahu and his government,” Naim said, according to The Palestine Chronicle.Naim said the Netanyahu government had been using negotiations as a cover to advance its own agenda. “Netanyahu’s government must put an end to this deceptive charade,” he said.Former Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, who was recently fired by Netanyahu, said that the prime minister sabotaged the chances of a hostage deal by demanding Israel maintain control of the Philadelphi Corridor on the Gaza-Egypt border.“I can tell you what there was not, security considerations. The IDF chief and I said there was no security reason for remaining in the Philadelphi Corridor,” Gallant told hostage families on November 7. “Netanyahu said that it was a diplomatic consideration, I’m telling you there was no diplomatic consideration.”There are believed to be 97 Israeli hostages remaining in Gaza, and Israeli media reported back in September that Netanyahu told a Knesset committee that only half of the hostages were believed to be alive.

US Denies Amnesty's Conclusion That Israel Is Committing Genocide - The US on Thursday rejected a 296-page report from Amnesty International that concluded Israel is conducting genocide in Gaza.“We disagree with the conclusions of such a report. We have said previously and continue to find that the allegations of genocide are unfounded,” State Department spokesman Vedant Patel told reporters.US officials have repeatedly denied the idea that Israel is committing genocide in Gaza since it would implicate them due to the massive amount of military aid that the US has provided Israel over the past year.Amnesty is calling for the US and other countries that supply arms to Israel to end the weapons shipments to avoid being complicit in genocide. “States that continue to transfer arms to Israel at this time must know they are violating their obligation to prevent genocide and are at risk of becoming complicit in genocide,” said Agnès Callamard, the secretary general of Amnesty.“All states with influence over Israel, particularly key arms suppliers like the USA and Germany, but also other EU member states, the UK and others, must act now to bring Israel’s atrocities against Palestinians in Gaza to an immediate end,” she added.The US is by far Israel’s biggest arms supplier as a report from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) found that from 2019-2023, the US provided Israel with 69% of its weapons, and Germany accounted for 30%.The US State Department has also denied there’s evidence that Israel is committing war crimes with US weapons to ensure the arms continue to flow. Amnesty investigated 15 Israeli airstrikes in Gaza that took place between October 7, 2023 and April 20, 2024. In those strikes, Amnesty found no evidence there were any military targets and said at least 334 civilians, including 141 children, were killed.Patel was asked about the 15 airstrikes examined by Amnesty and deferred to the Israeli military. “I will defer to the IDF to speak to its specific military operations,” he said.The Israeli Foreign Ministry also responded to the report on Thursday, claiming it was “a fabricated report that is entirely false and based on lies” and called Amnesty a “deplorable and fanatical organization.”

Either Watch The Footage Of Dead Kids In Gaza Or Stop Supporting Israel -Caitlin Johnstone- If you have not spent the past 14 months watching all the footage of dead and mutilated children coming out of Gaza, then you have no business trying to defend Israel and its actions. If you are avoiding looking at the facts, then you have no business talking about them. Everyone who has spent these past 14 months bringing their attention to the concrete realities of the nightmare in Gaza has been living in an entirely different world than everyone who has not. A darker world. An uglier world. A world where living monsters prowl the earth.Their dreams are worse. Their insides feel different. They experience the day to day moments of life in a whole other way. The opinions of such a person about what is happening in Gaza do not have the same value as the opinions of someone who has avoided looking at these things. Someone who has not been watching the videos, looking at the photos, seeing the blown-out, burnt-up bodies, listening to the screaming children, reading the harrowing stories, is not equal in their ability to form lucid assessments about Gaza to someone who has. Their opinions have no merit, and their words on the subject can be dismissed. Someone who supports Israel’s butchery in Gaza but has not spent the last 14 months bearing witness to the daily deluge of footage showing what that support entails is someone whose position is held together by psychological compartmentalization. They are only able to maintain their view of Israel and Palestine because they’ve been avoiding looking at the raw evidence of exactly what their position means. They’re like someone who eats meat but avoids learning about the harsh realities behind how it got to their dinner plate, because they know if they learned the truth about factory farming and saw how livestock are treated in our civilization it would reduce their ability to enjoy their favorite meals. Except with human beings instead of animals. If you are only able to hold your worldview together by refusing to face the facts about it, then your worldview is garbage and your opinions suck. If you’ve been avoiding looking at what’s happening to people in Gaza while justifying all the death and destruction with some gibberish about human shields and October 7, then everything that comes out of your mouth about this issue is a lie, because it is only made possible by your own untruthful relationship with reality. If you don’t want to face reality, then stop sharing your opinions about it. If you want to hide your head in the sand and dissociate from what’s really being done in your name then at least have the decency to shut up and spend your time in your fantasy land like a normal escapism addict. Stop annoying people by babbling about a subject that you cannot even bring yourself to deeply reckon with.

US Zionist Group Targets Pro-Palestine Protesters With Facial Recognition in Hopes Trump Will Deport Them - The American branch of the global Betar Zionist movement is using facial recognition technology with artificial intelligence to identify foreign students who have attended pro-Palestine protests in hopes that President-elect Donald Trump will deport them when he comes into office.Ross Glick, the head of Betar’s US branch, said foreign students on visas in the US shouldn’t have the right to free speech. “Even many of the protesters engaging in peaceful activities are part of a front for groups that are trying to undermine America and Israel,” he said, according to The Times of Israel. “We believe in freedom of speech, but if a foreign student is here on a visa, they don’t have the same rights as others to protest or promote anti-Zionist narratives.” Glick said Betar has identified dozens of students from Canada, the UK, and several Arab countries that will be reported to the Trump administration. The process involves identifying people through video footage and then looking into them online. “The next step is waiting until Trump’s inauguration on January 20 to hand over the information,” Glick said. President Trump has said he would deport foreign students for taking part in pro-Palestine protests, which he and many other Israel supporters have labeled “antisemitic” despite Jewish students and organizations being involved in the demonstrations. “When I’m president, we will not allow colleges to be taken over by violent radicals,” Trump said at a rally back in May. “If you come here from another country and try to bring jihadism or anti-Americanism or antisemitism to our campuses, we will immediately deport you, you’ll be out of that school.”Glick said his organization has been working with members of Congress, including Senators Ted Cruz (R-TX) and John Fetterman (D-PA), to ensure protesters are rounded up as soon as Trump comes into office.Trump has also vowed to crack down on pro-Palestine protests by going after colleges. “Here is what I will do to defeat antisemitism and defend our Jewish citizens in America: My first week back in the Oval Office, my Administration will inform every college president that if you do not end antisemitic propaganda, they will lose their accreditation and federal taxpayer support,” he said in September.

Blinken Claims Lebanon 'Ceasefire Is Holding' Despite Israeli Fire - Secretary of State Antony Blinken on Wednesday claimed the Lebanon ceasefire was “holding” despite repeated Israeli attacks on south Lebanon.At a press conference in Brussels, Blinken was asked if Israel had violated the ceasefire by bombing southern Lebanon but didn’t give a direct answer and pointed to a mechanism established by the US and France meant to uphold the truce.“The ceasefire is holding, and we’re using the mechanism that was established when any concerns have arisen about any alleged or purported violations,” Blinken said.As of Tuesday, Israeli strikes on south Lebanon have killed at least 15 people since the ceasefire was supposed to go into effect last Wednesday. Hezbollah has only fired two rockets, which it did on Monday as a “warning shot” in response to the Israeli violations. At that point, Israel had violated the ceasefire around 100 times, according to the UN’s peacekeeping force in Lebanon.The reporter questioning Blinken noted media reports that the US has told Israel it believes the Israeli military is violating the ceasefire, but Blinken refused to say so publicly.“I’m not going to respond to or get into any private diplomatic conversations that we’ve had. All I can tell you is the mechanism that we established with France to make sure that the ceasefire is effectively monitored and implemented is working,” Blinken said. Israeli officials have justified their strikes by claiming Hezbollah’s presence and activity was a violation of the ceasefire. But under the deal, Hezbollah has 60 days to withdraw its fighters and heavy weapons north of the Litani River. During that time, Israeli forces are supposed to pull out of southern Lebanon. The US has given Israel assurances that it could take military action in southern Lebanon if it deems Hezbollah is violating the deal, giving Israel significant freedom of action. The assurances were given in a letter separate from the agreement signed between Israel and Lebanon.

US-Backed Kurdish Forces Attack East Syrian Villages - The Syrian Civil War and its various fronts continue to re-escalate today with the Kurdish SDF attacking, and temporarily claiming they had captured seven villages in the eastern Deir Ezzor Province. The villages are along the path between the provincial capital and the Abu Kamal border crossing with Iraq.The villages didn’t ultimately remain in the SDF’s hands, with the Syrian Army reporting that they had repelled them after intense fighting. The decision of the SDF to attack in the first place does not appear to have been entirely their own, however. The US not only supported the SDF attack, but according to al-Mayadeen the US military actually “instructed” the SDF’s Deir Ezzor Military Council to attack those specific villages, meant to take advantage of the recent territory losses and fighting further west between Syrian forces and the Islamist Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS). US involvement in the attacks didn’t end there. The US provided artillery support, firing artillery out of the Conoco outpost, which is near oil fields. The US shelled the village of Khasham, hitting it with at least 12 shells.US officials confirmed carrying out strikes in eastern Syria, hitting a tank and other targets. They claimed a rocket hit somewhere near their position and that Syrian military assets “presented a clear and imminent threat” to US forces.Other US officials suggested that the SDF had requested US military support and they were “supporting them.” They denied this had anything to do with the HTS offensive in the northwest, and insisted that the attacks were not outside their normal mission, adding that the US is “there to defeat ISIS.” The attacks were against Syrian military targets, not ISIS.The SDF is trying to downplay the US involvement in these attacks, arguing that after the Russian troops had deployed away from Syrian government-controlled villages, they were vulnerable to potential ISIS attack. The SDF also claimed that they felt responsible for “protecting” the villages, by which they meant attacking them.

Jake Sullivan Says US Won't 'Cry' About the Pressure Syria Is Facing from Al-Qaeda-Linked Fighters - National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan said on Sunday that the US will not “cry” over the pressure the Syrian government and its allies are facing from an offensive on Aleppo led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), an offshoot of al-Qaeda. Sullivan acknowledged that HTS was “a terrorist organization designated by the United States” and said the US has “real concerns about the designs and objectives of that organization.”But he added, “At the same time, of course, we don’t cry over the fact that the Assad government, backed by Russia, Iran and Hezbollah, are facing certain kinds of pressure.”HTS captured Aleppo following a surprise offensive that was launched last Wednesday, which came after Israel stepped up airstrikes on Syria. US officials have not been shy in the past about their preference for HTS and its leader, Abu Mohammad al-Julani, over other factions in Syria. James Jeffrey, an American diplomat who served as a special envoy to Syria under the Trump administration from 2018-2020, said in a 2021 interviewthat HTS was “an asset” to the US’s strategy in Idlib, a northwestern Syrian province that’s been under HTS control since 2017. “They are the least bad option of the various options on Idlib, and Idlib is one of the most important places in Syria, which is one of the most important places right now in the Middle East,” Jeffrey said. Julani was formerly the leader of al-Nusra Front, which was the al-Qaeda affiliate in Syria. In 2016, Julani publicly announced he was splitting with al-Qaeda and changed his group’s name to Jabhat Fatah al-Sham, which merged with other Islamist groups to form HTS in 2017. Julani’s rebranding campaign was part of an effort to gain more support from the West. Jeffrey said he was in regular contact with Julani and HTS while he was working as the US envoy to Syria. Jeffrey said a typical message from al-Julani was like this, “This is what we’re doing. These are our goals. We’re not a threat to you.”Jeffrey said he responded to Julani by saying, “I couldn’t agree more. … Keep me informed as often as possible.”Al-Qaeda and other extremist groups always made up a significant portion of the opposition to Assad after the war broke out in 2011. In 2012, Jake Sullivan, who worked as an aide to then-Secretary of State Hilary Clinton at the time, told his boss in an email released by WikiLeaks that “AQ (al-Qaeda) is on our side in Syria.”

US Frames Syria Airstrikes as ‘Self-Defense’ Despite Happening Amid an Ongoing US-Backed Offensive - Tuesday, the Kurdish SDF launched an offensive against a number of villages in eastern Syria. The US backed the offensive with military action, and al-Mayadeen even suggests that the offensive itself came at the behest of the US military. Today we’re getting some more details, and the US is trying to re-frame the narrative of what actually happened. It is confirmed that the US launched airstrikes as well as the previously reported artillery fire, which targeted Syrian forces in the area of the offensive. The strikes destroyed multiple trucks with rocket launcher systems on them, and also destroyed a T-64 battle tank.These strikes were launched specifically while the SDF offensive was ongoing, and targeted forces in the area of the attacks. The Pentagon, however, has tried to present their strikes as “self-defense,” claiming that the presence of the military assets firing in an area so close to US-occupied bases posed a “clear and imminent threat.”The Pentagon is clearly trying to downplay the fact that it carried out airstrikes in support of the SDF trying to seize territory. Indeed, theofficial statement from CENTCOM leans heavily into the “self-defense” narrative and doesn’t even mention that there was an ongoing SDF battle in the area.The small US-held bases in that part of eastern Syria are centered around oil and gas fields. The US helped the SDF seize those energy assets in 2017 after a brief occupation by ISIS. The Syrian government had expected to eventually recover those important economic assets, but the indication is that the SDF intends to keep the area, and indeed is trying to expand even further with these new attacks.All indications are that the US is growing more interested in getting involved in these territory grabs, particularly with Syria already vulnerable because of the Islamist Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) gaining substantial territory further west. At the same time, the Pentagon seems to want to avoid directly admitting to what they are doing, just branding it as typical “self-defense” action despite it being plainly related to the SDF offensive. US Major Gen. Patrick Ryder refused to discuss the SDF offensive, referring any questions about that to the SDF itself. He too was quick to frame the US military operations there as “self-defense” and not discuss involvement in the offensive.

Report: US Offered To Withdraw Troops From Syria in Exchange for Assad Cutting Ties With Iran - The US had proposed the idea of withdrawing its troops from eastern Syria and possibly lifting sanctions in exchange for the government of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad cutting ties with Iran and Hezbollah, The New York Times reported on Wednesday.The report said the offer to pull out troops and other proposals made by the US and Gulf Arab states were made in coordination with Israeli strikes on Syria as part of a “two-pronged approach” to pressure Assad to abandon his alliance with Iran and Hezbollah, which would impede weapons shipments from Iran to Lebanon.Since October 2023, Israel has dramatically stepped up airstrikes on Syria, bombing the country over 220 times. The Times report said that Israel, with support from the US, was eager to “take advantage” of the October 7 Hamas attack on southern Israel to ramp up the pressure on Syria.Officials told the Times that the offensive launched last week by the al-Qaeda-linked Hayat Tahrir al-Sham makes it less likely that Assad would be willing to cut ties with Iran or Hezbollah since he’ll need their help with the fighting. Reuters also reported this week that the US and the UAE had offered sanctions relief to Syria if it ended its alliance with Iran and cut off weapons shipments to Lebanon. That report said that the HTS offensive was “a signal of precisely the sort of weakness in Assad’s alliance with Iran that the Emirati and US initiative aims to exploit” but also acknowledged it could increase his reliance on Iran. The US claims it maintains troops in eastern Syria to fight ISIS, but the reports make clear the occupation and the US sanctions campaign, which have had a devastating impact on Syrian civilians, are about keeping pressure on Iran and its allies to benefit Israel.

US Military Says It Intercepted Houthi Attack on US Commercial Vessels - -On Sunday, US Central Command said that US Navy Destroyers intercepted missiles and drones launched by Yemen’s Houthis at three US commercial vessels in the Gulf of Aden.“US Navy destroyers USS Stockdale (DDG 106) and the USS O’Kane (DDG 77) successfully defeated a range of Houthi-launched weapons while transiting the Gulf of Aden,” CENTCOM said in a press release. The Houthis, officially known as Ansar Allah, took credit for the attack, saying they targeted three US “supply ships” and one US destroyer. According to Al Mayadeen, Houthi military spokesman Yahya Sarea said Yemeni forces carried out “precise hits,” but CENTCOM said there was no damage or injuries.CENTCOM said the destroyers “successfully engaged and defeated three anti-ship ballistic missiles (ASBMs), three one-way attack uncrewed aerial systems (OWA UAS), and one anti-ship cruise missile (ASCM).”The US began bombing Yemen back in January in defense of Houthi attacks on Israeli shipping, which were launched in response to the onslaught in Gaza. The US bombing campaign has done nothing to deter the Houthis and only escalated the situation as the Yemeni group began targeting US shipping as a result. From 2015-2022, the US supported a Saudi/UAE war against the Houthis, which involved heavy airstrikes and a blockade, and the Houthis only became a more capable fighting force during that time.

Global arms trade soars in 2023, driven by deadly conflicts --The top 100 global arms producers increased weapons and military-related sales by 4.3 percent last year, according to new research, as nations react to a more volatile and dangerous geopolitical environment sparked by wars in Europe and the Middle East.The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) said in a Monday report that sales reached $632 billion in 2023 among the world’s major arms producers.Those 100 companies have also increased their revenue by 19 percent between 2015 and 2023, researchers wrote.Lorenzo Scarazzato, a researcher at SIPRI, said “there was a marked rise in arms revenues in 2023 and this is likely to continue in 2024.”“The arms revenues of the Top 100 arms producers still did not fully reflect the scale of demand, and many companies have launched recruitment drives, suggesting they are optimistic about future sales,” Scarazzato said in a statement.The arms sales are inline with countries across the globe spending a record amount on defense in 2023, SIPRI said in a report earlier this year.According to the new report, while sales increased worldwide, the regions driving most of the growth include in Russia, which is fighting a war in Ukraine, and the Middle East, where Israel is fighting in Gaza and regionally against Iranian-backed proxy groups.Russia has two companies in the top 100 arms producers, which together saw a 40 percent increase from 2022 to around $25 billion.In the Middle East, six top arms producers — three of which are in Israel and the other half in Turkey — saw a collective 18 percent bump to $19.6 billion.Of the top 100 global defense companies, 41 of them are based in the U.S., and those firms recorded $317 billion in sales in 2023, a 2.5 percent increase from the year before.While a majority of the U.S. companies increased arms revenues, two of the world’s largest weapons producers, Lockheed Martin and RTX, saw a decrease in sales because of a struggle to ramp up production given supply chain issues.Europe and China also saw slight increases in arms sales, but those were among the smallest bumps recorded in 2023. China is struggling with a lagging economy, while Europe is slowly ramping up its defense spending after the war in Ukraine.The 23 top companies in Asia and Oceania saw a 5.7 percent increase, reaching $136 billion, as the Indo-Pacific in particular intensifies over competition and potential conflict between the U.S. and China.

US OKs New Arms Sales for Taiwan, Taiwanese President Visits Hawaii - The US approved new arms sales for Taiwan on Friday, a day before Taiwanese President William Lai Ching-te arrived in Hawaii for a two-day visit as part of a tour of the region. The Pentagon’s Defense Security Cooperation Agency said the Biden administration approved two potential arms deals for Taiwan. One is for spare parts and support for the island’s fleet of US-made F-16 fighter jetsthat’s worth $320 million. The other sale is for supporting and maintaining a military communication system, known as the Improved Mobile Subscriber Equipment, and is worth $65 million. The approval of the sales comes as China has been stepping up its warnings to the US that Taiwan is a major red line. In a statement on the new arms deals, the Chinese Foreign Ministry said it sent the “wrong signal” to Taiwanese independence forces and vowed there would be a response. “China will closely follow the developments and take resolute and strong measures to defend our nation’s sovereignty and territorial integrity,” the ministry said. China also strongly opposed any official contact between Taiwan and the US and slammed President Lai’s visit to Hawaii. He stopped in the US state while on a trip to Pacific island nations that, unlike the US, have formal diplomatic relations with Taiwan. “Let me reiterate that China firmly opposes any form of official interaction between the US and the Taiwan region, firmly opposes any visit by the leader of the Taiwan authorities to the US in any name or under whatever pretext, and firmly opposes any form of US connivance and support for ‘Taiwan independence’ separatists and their separatist activities,” Chinese Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Mao Ning said on Friday. Mao also pointed to recent talks between Chinese President Xi Jinping and President Biden, in which the Chinese leader reiterated that Taiwan is a major red line. “President Xi Jinping stressed that the one-China principle and the three China-US joint communiqués are the political foundation of China-US relations and they must be observed,” she said.

China Sanctions 13 US Companies in Response to Weapons Sales to Taiwan - China has sanctioned 13 US companies involved in the manufacturing of drones and artificial intelligence in Beijing’s latest protest against weapons sales to Taiwan, which have increased in recent months.“The Taiwan question is at the core of China’s core interests. In recent months, the US has announced multiple arms sales to China’s Taiwan region,” Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Lin Jian told reporters.Lin said the recent US weapons sales “gravely interfere in China’s internal affairs” and Beijing decided to “take countermeasures against relevant military companies and senior executives of the US.”Recent US arms sales the US has approved for Taiwan include support for the island’s fleet of F-16 fighter jets, air defense systems, and radar systems. Taiwan also recently signed a contract to purchase 1,000 attack drones from the US.Besides the weapons sales, President Biden recently signed off on a $567 million military aid package for Taiwan of weapons shipped straight from US stockpiles, a form of support the US first provided the island in 2023, which marked an escalation.The Chinese Foreign Ministry said in a press release that the 13 companies China has sanctioned include “Teledyne Brown Engineering, Inc., BRINC Drones, Inc., Rapid Flight LLC, Red Six Solutions, Shield AI, Inc., SYNEXXUS, Inc., Firestorm Labs, Inc., Kratos Unmanned Aerial Systems, Inc., HavocAI, Neros Technologies, Cyberlux Corporation, Domo Tactical Communications, and Group W.”The press release said China also sanctioned six arms industry executives: “Barbara Borgonovi, President of Naval Power strategic business unit of Raytheon, Gerard Hueber, Vice President of Naval Power strategic business unit of Raytheon, Charles Woodburn, Chief Executive Officer of BAE Systems Land and Armaments, Richard D. Crawford, Founder and Chief Executive Officer of Alliant Techsystems Operations, Beth Edler, President of Data Link Solutions, and Blake Resnick, Founder and Chief Executive Officer of BRINC Drones.”

US issues new restrictions on chip manufacturing exports to China - The Biden administration issued new restrictions Monday on exports of certain semiconductor chips and equipment to China, marking the Biden administration’s latest crackdown to curb the country’s competitive advancements in chipmaking. The new export controls place more than 100 Chinese chipmaking tool manufacturers on a restricted trade list, prohibiting U.S. companies from sending them equipment without specific permission, the Commerce Department’s Bureau of Industry and Security said Monday. Leading chip equipment company Naura Technology Group is among the dozens of Chinese companies facing new restrictions.. The move also blocks the sales of certain chips, called “high-bandwidth memory,” which are critical to artificial intelligence training, and some software tools, the federal agency added. Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo said the new restrictions seek to “impair” China’s “ability to indigenize the production of advanced technologies that pose a risk to our national security.” “As technology evolves, and our adversaries seek new ways to evade restrictions, we will continue to work with our allies and partners to proactively and aggressively safeguard our world-leading technologies and know-how so they aren’t used to undermine our national security,” White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan added. The announcement is likely one of the Biden administration’s last attempts to hamper China’s chip production and in turn, the development of military equipment and artificial intelligence (AI) systems that pose a risk to U.S. national security. Reuters first reported the announcement. Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson Lin Jian told reporters Monday the export controls violate laws of market economy and disrupts international trade order.“We have repeatedly made clear our position on this issue,” Lin said. “China firmly opposes the U.S.’s overstretching the concept of national security, abusing export controls and maliciously blocking and suppressing China.”He said Beijing intends to take “resolute measures” to defense the interests of Chinese companies.From the White House’s various restrictions on U.S. shipments of semiconductor chips and chipmaking equipment, along with the billions of dollars invested into semiconductor production, the Biden administration has made domestic chip manufacturing a major priority to stay ahead of China.The 2022 CHIPS and Science Act set aside $53 billion to increase domestic chip production with hopes of making the U.S. less reliant on foreign supply chains. Monday’s announcement comes about a month until President-elect Trump is sworn back into office. Trump is largely expected to continue a hard-line approach toward China.

China bans exports to US of gallium and other key high-tech materials in response to chip sanctions (AP) — China announced Tuesday it is banning exports to the United States of gallium, germanium, antimony and other key high-tech materials with potential military applications, as a general principle, lashing back at U.S. limits on semiconductor-related exports. The Chinese Commerce Ministry announced the move after the Washington expanded its list of Chinese companies subject to export controls on computer chip-making equipment, software and high-bandwidth memory chips. Such chips are needed for advanced applications. The ratcheting up of trade restrictions comes as President-elect Donald Trump has been threatening to sharply raise tariffs on imports from China and other countries, potentially intensifying simmering tensions over trade and technology. China’s Foreign Ministry also issued a vehement reproof. “China has lodged stern protests with the U.S. for its update of the semiconductor export control measures, sanctions against Chinese companies, and malicious suppression of China’s technological progress,” Lin Jian, a Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson, said in a routine briefing Tuesday. “I want to reiterate that China firmly opposes the U.S. overstretching the concept of national security, abuse of export control measures, and illegal unilateral sanctions and long-arm jurisdiction against Chinese companies,” Lin said. The minerals sourced in China are used in computer chips, cars and other products China said in July 2023 it would require exporters to apply for licenses to send to the U.S. the strategically important materials such as gallium and germanium. In August, the Chinese Commerce Ministry said it would restrict exports of antimony, which is used in a wide range of products from batteries to weapons, and impose tighter controls on exports of graphite. Such minerals are considered critical for national security. China is a major producer of antimony, which is used in flame retardants, batteries, night-vision goggles and nuclear weapon production, according to a 2021 U.S. International Trade Commission report. The limits announced by Beijing on Tuesday also include exports of super-hard materials, such as diamonds and other synthetic materials that are not compressible and extremely dense. They are used in many industrial areas such as cutting tools, disc brakes and protective coatings. The licensing requirements that China announced in August also covered smelting and separation technology and machinery and other items related to such super-hard materials. China is the biggest global source of gallium and germanium, which are produced in small amounts but are needed to make computer chips for mobile phones, cars and other products, as well as solar panels and military technology.

Trump heads to France as world leaders seek to curry favor - President-elect Trump is holding court with foreign leaders as they seek to gain influence and insight into his mindset before he takes office, with the expectation that the Trump administration will bring major shifts to the global economy and to its approach to alliances. Trump has met with and spoken to a wide array of global leaders since he won last month’s election. On Saturday, he will be taking a trip abroad to attend the reopening of the Notre Dame cathedral in Paris, a visit that is seen as a way for French President Emmanuel Macron to bolster his standing with the president-elect. Trump is set to join other prominent officials, including first lady Jill Biden, at a ceremony to mark the reopening of the cathedral, which went up in flames in 2019, putting the historic building in jeopardy. The former and incoming president has spent the weeks since his victory taking calls from foreign leaders, many of whom have congratulated him on his win, with Macron being among the first to do so. “Foreign leaders are coming to the table to meet with President Trump because they know he will restore peace through strength and reclaim America’s dominance on the world stage,” Taylor Rogers, a spokesperson for the transition, said in a statement. At least one leader, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, flew to see Trump at Mar-a-Lago in Florida last week in the wake of Trump threatening tariffs against Canada. It marked just one example of how world leaders are bracing for a significant shift from the U.S. upon the transition from the Biden administration to the Trump administration. “The playbook is pretty darn clear. Flattery, offering up deliverables and shiny objects on a silver platter,” said Brett Bruen, president of the Global Situation Room and a former U.S. diplomat. “What you saw from Macron was this kind of tactic to be able to get the snowball rolling in the right direction with Trump, and clearly it’s been well received.” “At the end of the day, other world leaders would be well advised to follow that model because there are only two paths with Trump, and it’s either you are a friend and a flatterer or you’re in a firing line,” Bruen added. While President Biden centered his foreign policy on restoring America’s role as a world leader and bolstering alliances, particularly in support of Ukraine, Trump has signaled he will return to his “America First” agenda that will likely be more combative with traditional allies and with groups like NATO and the United Nations. He has also made clear he is prepared to impose tariffs on foreign imports, including those from major trade partners like Mexico, Canada and Europe.

Democrats press to limit Donald Trump's ability to use military domestically ==Democratic Sens. Elizabeth Warren (Mass.) and Richard Blumenthal (Conn.) sent a letter to President Biden and Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin this week calling for a policy directive that would prevent the misuse of armed forces in the country after raising concerns about President-elect Trump’s vague threats to potentially use the military on domestic enemies. The senators said in the letter dated Nov. 26 that the Biden administration should issue a policy directive that expressly prohibits the mobilization of active-duty military or the National Guard unless specifically authorized by Congress. While a sitting president can invoke the Insurrection Act to use the military to quash a rebellion that threatens the nation, the commander in chief is otherwise restricted by the 1878 Posse Comitatus Act, which prohibits the armed forces from carrying out federal law unless authorized by Congress or the Constitution. Warren and Blumenthal wrote that a new policy directive should make clear the Insurrection Act is limited in its use and should only be invoked when state or local authorities are overwhelmed by an emergency or attack and request assistance. They also said armed forces should only be called to protect citizens’ civil liberties if law enforcement has failed to do so; that the military must follow the law if called; and that a president must consult with Congress before invoking the Insurrection Act. “If unaddressed, any ambiguity on the lawful use of military force, coupled with President-elect Trump’s demonstrated intent to utilize the military in such dangerous and unprecedented ways, may prove to be devastating,” the senators wrote. On the campaign trail, Trump suggested using the military on the “enemy from within,” after he warned of the dangers posed by his “radical-left” political opponents. Democrats have expressed alarm at the rhetoric, but Republicans have largely downplayed the threats. Trump will now enter office on Jan. 20 with broad immunity for any official acts as president, including military deployments, following the Supreme Court’s ruling earlier this year. Still, service members would still be obligated to follow their own internal laws. But Warren and Blumenthal pointed to Trump’s efforts to deploy active-duty troops in 2020 to quell racial justice protests in cities, and said the former president in his first term “repeatedly sought to use the military to impede the First Amendment rights of Americans.”

Biden Administration Disburses Over $100 Billion in Clean Energy Grants as Term Winds Down (Reuters) — U.S. President Joe Biden's administration has awarded over $100 billion in grants created by its signature climate law, the Inflation Reduction Act, a senior administration official said. The administration hopes the spending milestone will help to continue the deployment of clean energy even after President-elect Donald Trump, a climate change skeptic who has pledged to rescind all unspent IRA funds, takes office. "When funds are obligated, they are protected," the official told Reuters. "They are subject to the terms of the contract, so when those contracts are signed and executed, this becomes a matter of contract law more than matter of politics." The official said the administration is on track to exceed its goal of "obligating" over 80% of IRA grant funding by the end of Biden's term next month. The IRA also offers a decade's worth of tax incentives for clean energy projects, including for wind and solar installations, and ending those subsidies would likely require an act of Congress. The IRA's grants and subsidies have driven billions of dollars to renewable-energy projects across the country, with Republican-led states getting the bulk of the benefits. In August, 18 Republican House members wrote to House Speaker Mike Johnson asking him not to gut the law's incentives because it would jeopardize major investments. Some of Trump's close allies have also benefited from the IRA, particularly its provisions boosting carbon capture and sequestration, as well as clean hydrogen. Among the recent awards that pushed the grant funding over the $100 billion milestone are a $119 million contract issued by the General Services Administration to electrify five federal buildings in the D.C. region; $147 million to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration for science and data collection to account for the effects of climate change on fisheries; and an additional $256 million in Rural Energy for America Program grants and loans from the U.S. Department of Agriculture.

President Biden is leaving Trump a shocking mess to clean up - - What an incredible mess Joe Biden will be leaving for Donald Trump on Jan. 20. It isn’t just the $36 trillion in federal debt (up $13 trillion since 2020), which has increasingly (and foolishly) been financed by short-term borrowings; it is also inflation that refuses to die despite slumping energy prices, a Strategic Petroleum Reserve that has been drained to perilous levels, a weapons stockpile that is dangerously low, a Department of Justice that haslost the confidence of Americans, billions upon billions of taxpayer dollars that have been invested in losing enterprises (here’s looking at you, Intel), an educational curriculum thatteaches kids to hate their country but fails to deliver youngsters able to read and write, ahousing crisis, a manufacturing slump and so much more. Biden also leaves Trump the nightmarish task of extricating the U.S. from Ukraine’s war with Russia and — once again — having to restore a sustainable balance of power in the Middle East. If Joe Biden were a decent fellow and a patriot, he would be using his remaining weeks as president to fix some of the disasters he has created. Instead, he is doing just the opposite. Biden and his apparatchiks are trying to spend every last dollar authorized by the misnamed Inflation Reduction Act so that the Trump administration cannot recapture those funds. The IRA gave the White House some $375 billion in taxpayer funds to be strewn about the country as they see fit, under the total control of former Hillary Clinton campaign chair John Podesta. Because the Biden White House has almost no one with private-sector experience — no one with a history of building successful businesses — the hapless crew proved unable to spend the many billions available. Pete Buttigieg’s laughable effort to build charging stations for electronic vehicles, in which the Transportation secretary spent $7.5 billion on eight such facilities after promising 500,000, or Kamala Harris’s total failure to roll out internet access to rural areas despite the $42 billion at her disposal, are emblematic of this administration’s capabilities. Anyone who knows anything about Washington will understand that leftover money is about as popular as the fourth turkey sandwich served up after Thanksgiving. The money must be spent! And so, rather than help the Trump team (and the U.S.) by recycling unspent IRA money, they are putting it to work — at least, in theory. A recently released video from investigators at Project Veritas catches an adviser to the EPA saying via hidden camera, “Now we’re just trying to get the money out as fast as possible before they come in and stop it all. … It truly feels like we’re on the Titanic and we’re throwing gold bars off the edge.” The adviser, Brent Efron, admits that while typically his department had been making “sure the proper processes are in place to prevent fraud and prevent abuse,” now they are shoveling money to tribes, nonprofits and states at warp speed. Efron explains to the undercover reporter, “We gave them the money because it was harder if it was a government-run program, they could take the money away, if Trump won.” Elon Musk commented that the video suggests “The U.S. government is actively working to undermine the American people.” Or at least the newly elected president.

Groups urge Congress to rein in federal bureaucracy after Supreme Court slashes agency authority --A coalition of 19 conservative and libertarian groups sent a letter to congressional leaders Wednesday urging them to act after a major Supreme Court decision clawing back federal agency power.The coalition, led by Americans for Prosperity, told lawmakers they have a “generational opportunity” to rein in the federal bureaucracy after the high court in June overturned Chevron deference, which for 40 years had compelled courts to defer to agencies’ interpretations of ambiguous statutes. Overturning the doctrine marked a monumental victory for the conservative legal movement, and as President-elect Trump returns to the White House, Vivek Ramaswamy and Elon Musk have latched onto the decision in their ambitious plans to slash federal regulations as co-heads of the newly minted Department of Government Efficiency, or DOGE.In the new letter, the coalition proposed that Congress delegate less authority to agencies in future legislation, streamline the procedures that allow lawmakers to overturn federal regulations, increase agency oversight and hearings, and take various other steps. The groups said the efforts are needed to “keep Congress one-step ahead of bureaucrats’ future attempts to regain lost influence and thwart government by the People.”“[W]ith Chevron vanquished and a growing nationwide demand to dismantle the administrative state and its crippling regulatory barriers, we write to recommend prioritizing the actions below to build a strong foundation for Congress to meet the challenges of a post-Chevron landscape,” the groups wrote in the letter. The letter was led by Americans for Prosperity, a conservative political advocacy group funded by Charles Koch, the chairman of Koch Industries, who has helped spearhead major regulatory challenges. The 18 co-signers included Americans for Tax Reform, Heritage Action, Club for Growth, the Competitive Enterprise Institute and the Manhattan Institute. Many of the groups backed the effort at the Supreme Court earlier this year that toppled Chevron deference.The 1984 ruling had been cited in thousands of lower court decisions upholding regulations that affect wide aspects of American life, becoming a bedrock of modern administrative law. Anti-regulatory interests long looked to demolish the precedent as part of a broader attack on the “administrative state,” and found success with the Supreme Court’s 6-3 conservative majority. The justices ruled along ideological lines that courts must exercise their independent judgment in deciding whether an agency has acted within its statutory authority, removing the deference that had long given the federal bureaucracy sweeping power.

George Will: 'My column' has the same power as Elon Musk, Vivek Ramaswamy's DOGE -- Conservative commentator George Will expressed doubt about the potential impact of the “Department of Government Efficiency” (DOGE), arguing his column has the same power as the advisory board led by Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy. “They are an advisory committee with no formal power. My column periodically advocates cutting certain items from the budget. My column has as much power as that committee is going to have,” Will, a longtime conservative columnist for The Washington Post, said during his Thursday appearance on NewsNation’s show “The Hill.” “Congress controls the purse strings,” Will, who is also a NewsNation senior political contributor, added. Both Musk and Ramaswamy met with Republican lawmakers Thursday on Capitol Hill. Some who attended the meeting expressed doubt that the newly formed board will meet its goal of cutting $2 trillion in spending. “Probably half of them in there are really excited, and the other half know reality,” Rep. Max Miller (R-Ohio) said of those who attended. “They’re gonna offer a lot of solutions that are gonna roll off the tongue real easy but look at the margins. They’re just not gonna have the horsepower,” said one GOP lawmaker, granted anonymity to speak candidly, referencing the filibuster in the Senate and the narrow GOP majority in the lower chamber. Others emphasized that Congress would need to act on the proposals, or it would end up being a “waste of time.” “The key to the whole thing is in that room. If Congress doesn’t have the guts to do those things that they’re talking real big about. It’s just gonna — it’s just a waste of time,” Rep. Tim Burchett(R-Tenn.) said on Thursday. Ramaswamy and Musk also met with incoming Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) and House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) on Thursday. Sen. Joni Ernst (R-Iowa) will lead the Senate DOGE Caucus, while on the House side, Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) will chair a subcommittee similarly focused on governmental efficiency. Some progressives, including Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) and Rep. Ro Khanna (D-Calif.), have shown interest in working with DOGE leaders, particularly to reduce defense spending. Rep. Jared Moskowitz (D-Fla.) stated he will be joining the Congressional Delivering Outstanding Government Efficiency Caucus. Ohio Rep. Greg Landsman (D) said Tuesday he was interested in joining and would if asked. Other House Democrats are not fans of the board. “You know, they haven’t asked to meet with me, but the impoundment of funds that have been appropriated by the Congress is unconstitutional and illegal,” Rep. Zoe Lofgren (D-Calif.) said.

Blackburn's 'DOGE Acts' aim to reform federal government -Sen. Marsha Blackburn (R-Tenn.) has unveiled her “DOGE Acts” to cut spending and freeze federal hiring, as well as salaries. “Senator Blackburn is planning to introduce a package of bills – known as the DOGE Acts – aimed at holding the federal government more accountable for managing taxpayer dollars next week,” Blackburn’s spokesperson said in a statement. “The DOGE Acts coincides with Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy’s plan to make the federal government more efficient.” The legislation “would cut discretionary spending, move federal agencies out of the swamp, freeze federal hiring and salaries for one year, begin the process of a merit-based compensation structure for federal employees, and require agencies to get employees back in the office,” according to the statement. The bills in the package would create a commission centered on the relocation away from D.C. of some federal agencies; cause a yearlong pause in federal hiring and salaries; and make the federal government have a pilot program in which civilian employees would be compensated in relation to their merit. Last month, President-elect Trump said tech billionaire Elon Musk and former GOP presidential primary candidate Vivek Ramaswamy would serve as the heads of the “Department of Government Efficiency” (DOGE), which aims to “slash excess regulations, cut wasteful expenditures” and restructure federal agencies. DOGE would “provide advice and guidance from outside of government” and work alongside the White House Office of Management and Budget, the president-elect said. “It will become, potentially, ‘The Manhattan Project’ of our time,” Trump added. “Republican politicians have dreamed about the objectives of ‘DOGE’ for a very long time.” Musk and Ramaswamy were on Capitol Hill on Thursday meeting with Republican leaders like incoming Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) and House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.). “I think we should be spending the public’s money wisely,” Musk told reporters Thursday at the Capitol.

Republicans mull fate of DOE loan program - Republican control of Congress next year could spell trouble — or even doom — for a Department of Energy office that has doled out billions to stand up clean energy projects across the country.Top Republican energy lawmakers interviewed by POLITICO’s E&E News said they see DOE’s Loan Programs Office as a prime target for President-elect Donald Trump’s plan to cut costs and increase “efficiency” across federal agencies. “Especially with the Department of Energy, you want to have government efficiency,” said Rep. Bob Latta (R-Ohio), a candidate to run the Energy and Commerce Committee next year. “I think the Loan Programs Office and everything can be really scrutinized, because we’re 36 trillion in the hole,” he added, referencing the U.S. national debt. The LPO was established in 2005 to provide funding for emerging energy technologies that have difficulty attracting private capital. Buoyed by an unprecedented boost in funding provided by the Inflation Reduction Act, the office has announced roughly $37 billion in loans or loan guarantees for a host of promising clean energy projects during President Joe Biden’s tenure. It has finalized financing for 12 of them, worth roughly $12 billion.It’s unclear how hard Republicans will push on making big changes to the loan office. Some want to see a complete teardown, while others think its portfolio could be adjusted to focus on Republican-favored energy sources like nuclear, geothermal or even fossil fuel projects. Others say Republicans should tread carefully on big cuts.Ahead of the election, the Heritage Foundation’s Project 2025, a blueprint for the next Republican president, said the loan office should be “eliminated or reformed.”Republicans now say they’ll be paying particular attention to Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy’s so-called Department of Government Efficiency, or DOGE, to see what particular programs, like the LPO, may be ripe for cuts.“I think [Elon] needs to start getting in and looking at these things, especially at the LPO,” said Latta. “I think it’s good to have somebody outside of government, because … we’re in very deep trouble when it comes to government spending.”Republican lawmakers are already meeting with team members behind the external efficiency panel and are forming their own DOGE congressional caucuses to advance the effort.Incoming Senate Energy and Natural Resources Chair Mike Lee (R-Utah) counts himself as a member of the Senate DOGE caucus. He’s already been active engaging with Musk on X in several posts criticizing government overreach and spending.“Federal spending doesn’t offset the tax burden,” Lee said on X responding to a separate Musk post. “Federal spending is itself a massive tax.”

Trump’s plans to remake America in 1 week - If President-elect Donald Trump lives up to his promises, he is going to have a prolific first week in office come January.Trump has pledged action on dozens of policy fronts on Day One or Week One in the White House as part of an aggressive agenda to reverse immigration flows, juice American energy production, reorient global commerce and purge his political enemies. Some of his promises are improbable — such as ending the war in Ukraine in his first 24 hours — but he can achieve many of his aims through executive actions, which aides are already scrambling to prepare. POLITICO compiled a list of the biggest promises Trump made on the campaign trail or since winning the election to provide a snapshot of what his first week in office might look like:

• Repeatedly: Trump promised to sign a new executive order on Day One that would cut federal funding to any school “pushing critical race theory, transgender insanity and other inappropriate racial, sexual or political content onto our children.”
• May 10, 2024: Trump said on the conservative radio show “Kayal and Company” that he would end Title IX discrimination protections for transgender students on Day One. The question posed to Trump was about a regulation but his response suggested he would repeal Biden’s own Day One executive order asserting that Title IX prohibits discrimination based on gender identity and sexual orientation.
• Aug. 29, 2024: Trump promised during a speech in Michigan to “declare a national emergency to allow us to dramatically increase energy production” in an effort to reduce energy costs. He said that starting on Day One, he will “approve new drilling, new pipelines, new refineries, new power plants, new reactors and we will slash the red tape.”
• July 20, 2023: In a campaign video, Trump promised to “terminate these Green New Deal atrocities” on his first day in office, referring to the climate law the Inflation Reduction Act, which Biden signed into law in 2022.
• Oct. 22, 2024: Trump promised during a campaign event in North Carolinato end the Biden administration’s “electric vehicle mandate.” Biden’s EPA implemented limits on climate pollution from passenger cars, pushing for electric vehicles to make up two-thirds of new car sales by 2032.
• Sept. 7, 2023: Trump has promised to increase domestic oil and gas production in his second term, coining “drill, baby, drill” as the policy’s slogan. Part of this promise includes rescinding “Biden’s industry-killing, jobs-killing, pro-China and anti-American electricity regulations” on Day One, per a campaign video.
• May 11, 2024: Trump swore he would end offshore wind projects on Day One, saying in a speech, “They ruin the environment, they kill the birds, they kill the whales.” Scientists have not found evidence of offshore wind having this effect, The Associated Press reported.
• May 11, 2023: Trump said he would end the war between Russia and Ukraine “in 24 hours” during a CNN town hall.
• Feb. 1, 2023: In a campaign video, Trump promised to revoke Biden’s “cruel” gender-affirming care policies. Biden had signed an executive order calling on the Department of Health and Human Services to increase access to gender-affirming health care and counter state efforts that would limit treatment for transgender minors.
• Feb. 1, 2023: In the same video, Trump said he would sign an executive order “instructing every federal agency to cease the promotion of sex or gender transition at any age.”
• Feb. 1, 2023: The president-elect also said he would ask Congress to “permanently stop federal taxpayer dollars from being used to promote or pay for” gender-affirming surgeries.
• Feb. 1, 2023: He also promised to pass a law that prohibits “child sexual mutilation” in all 50 states.
• Feb. 1, 2023: Trump’s final Day One promise in the video was to declare that any “hospital or health-care provider that participates in the chemical or physical mutilation of minor youth” as not meeting federal health and safety standards, blocking them from receiving federal funding.
• May 30, 2023: In a campaign video, Trump said he plans to sign an executive order on his first day as president to end automatic citizenship for children of undocumented immigrants born in the United States. He has raised the issue often, at least since October 2018.
• May 30, 2023: In the same video, Trump promised to sign a separate executive order ending “birth tourism,” where pregnant women legally travel to the U.S. solely so that they can give birth here and their children can be citizens.
• June 28, 2023: At the Faith & Freedom Coalition’s annual conference,Trump said he would “order my government” on Day One to deny entry to all “foreign Christian-hating communists, Marxists, and socialists.”
• Nov. 8, 2023: At a campaign rally in Hialeah, Florida, Trump said he plans to “restore the Trump travel ban on entry from terror-plagued countries,” a policy from his first administration that blocked entry from seven Muslim-majority countries, on his first day in office.
• Repeatedly: Trump promised to implement mass deportations of undocumented immigrants on “Day One” of his second term.
• Repeatedly: Trump has promised in interviews and op-eds that on his first day back in the Oval Office, he will “seal the border,” “stop the invasion” and “terminate every open borders policy of the Biden administration.”
• Nov. 18, 2024: Twelve days after he became the president-elect, Trump confirmed on Truth Social that he plans to declare a national emergency and use the military for mass deportations.
• Sept. 28, 2024: At a campaign rally in Prarie du Chien, Wisconsin, Trump promised to “stop all of the migrant flights,” a reference to a parole program for residents of Cuba, Haiti, Nicaragua, and Venezuela, on his first day in office.
• March 21, 2023: As part of his pledge to “dismantle the deep state,” Trump promised in a campaign video to reissue his 2020 executive order on Day One that would remove job protections for thousands of federal workers by redesignating their roles from policy positions to a “Schedule F” category — making them political appointees who could be fired by the president.
• Repeatedly: Trump has promised to pardon some Jan. 6 rioters charged with storming the U.S. Capitol “if they’re innocent” on “the first day” he returns to office. Presidents can pardon anyone convicted of a federal crime.
• Oct. 24, 2024: Trump told conservative radio host Hugh Hewitt in an interview that he would fire special counsel Jack Smith “within two seconds” of taking office. Smith had been overseeing the Justice Department’s investigations into Trump’s efforts to overturn the 2020 presidential election and his keeping of classified documents, though the special counsel moved last week to drop both criminal cases.
• Dec. 2, 2023: Trump promised at a campaign rally in Cedar Rapids, Iowa, to repeal President Joe Biden’s artificial intelligence executive order on Day One, which calls for new checks and risk analysis on the technology while also vetting its usefulness for the government, among other directives.
• Dec. 15, 2022: In a campaign video, Trump promised to issue an executive order “within hours of my inauguration” to “shatter the left-wing censorship regime and reclaim the right of free speech for all Americans.” The EO would ban federal departments and agencies from working with any group limiting speech, ban federal money for being used for labeling any speech as mis- or disinformation and fire any federal employees “engaged in domestic censorship.”
• Feb. 4, 2024: In an interview on Fox’s “Sunday Morning Futures,” Trump promised to impose between a 10 and 20 percent blanket tariff on all $3 trillion worth of U.S. goods imports and at least a 60 percent tariff on all Chinese goods.
• Nov. 25, 2024: Trump promised in a Truth Social post to implement 25 percent tariffs on Day One on all goods from Canada and Mexico until they clamp down on drugs and migrants crossing the border. He also promises an additional 10 percent tariff on all Chinese goods unless China implements the death penalty for all drug dealers linked to fentanyl.

Republicans headed for a $4.6 trillion brawl over Trump tax cuts - As discussions intensify on Capitol Hill over reupping President-elect Donald Trump’s signature tax cuts, Republicans are headed for a massive fight over what could be a nearly $5 trillion price tag. Top House and Senate lawmakers are deeply divided over what, if anything, to do about the hit to the budget that would come by renewing the slew of tax cuts benefiting millions of Americans that are set to expire at the end of next year. Some, like House Budget Committee Chair Jodey Arrington (R-Texas), are insisting that the effort should not add to the deficit, amid a rising tide of federal red ink. Seizing on the fanfare surrounding a bid by Elon Musk to cut spending, they argue that there are plenty of ways to cut the budget to defray the cost. Among the possibilities: cutting Medicaid, rescinding green energy tax breaks and boosting taxes on corporations’ overseas profits. On the other side are lawmakers like Sen. Mike Crapo of Idaho, Republicans’ point man on taxes in the Senate, who has long argued against paying much of the cost of any tax agreement. Trump, whose position will hold major sway, doesn’t seem concerned about costs. He proposed during his campaign trillions in additional tax cuts on top of the ones enacted during his first administration. He is floating the idea of using revenue from tariffs on imported goods to cover them. The debate, which could have ramifications for not just taxes but a host of other policies, will likely spool out over the coming months. Republicans will have to resolve their differences to unlock the arcane “reconciliation” process they intend to use. It would let them sidestep a filibuster by Senate Democrats and muscle through changes to taxes and, they hope, immigration and energy too. “That’s going to be the biggest challenge for the conference,” Rep. Greg Steube (R-Fla.), a Ways and Means member, said of the GOP’s looming budget clash. House Ways and Means Committee Republicans are meeting biweekly with staffers in hopes of assembling a draft tax plan in January. Top aides to House and Senate leadership are also huddling to get ready for the starting gun when Trump takes office on Jan. 20. GOP lawmakers will have to stipulate how much, if any, of their tax bill is allowed to add to the deficit. And the figure they choose will go a long way toward determining which of the myriad tax cuts under consideration can be accommodated.

Stephen Miller says Trump will tell at-home federal workers to return to office - Stephen Miller, who has been tapped to serve as White House deputy chief of staff for policy, says President-elect Trump will order federal workers to return to the office and not work remotely. “When Donald Trump is inaugurated on Jan. 20 and that new golden age of America begins, he’s going to tell the federal workers of this country who your viewers pay for to get back into the office and do their jobs or find another line of work,” Miller told Fox News’s Jesse Watters during an interview.Ensuring federal workers work in the office has become a priority for Trump and his allies, including Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy, the businessmen selected by the president-elect to lead a new “Department of Government Efficiency” (DOGE).Just how many federal workers are not coming to the office of work is a point of debate.Musk on Thursday highlighted a report released by Iowa Sen. Joni Ernst’s (R) office that found that 6 percent of government employees “report in-person on a full-time basis” and one-third of federal workers are “entirely remote.”Musk argued the real number of federal workers showing up could be even lower, saying the number of workers, excluding security and maintenance, who show up 40 hours per week on site is less than 1 percent. Separately, a report from the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) in August found that 50 percent of federal workers are not eligible for telework.That work also found that 60 percent of federal workers who are eligible for telework performed at an assigned job site as of May 2024.“These figures demonstrate that the Federal workforce is generally in line with the rates of on-site work performed across all sectors in the economy, as demonstrated by independent analysis from the Bureau of Labor Statistics,” the report said.The OMB report did not say these workers performed at a job site for 40 hours per week.Miller and Watters during their interview highlighted a federal worker who reportedly posted a picture of himself taking a bath while working.“Grown men should not be taking bubble baths. They certainly should not be doing their work from home in a bubble bath,” Miller said.

Trump voters feel very differently about things now that he’s won, our new poll shows - Donald Trump’s supporters thought voter fraud could determine the election outcome — until he won. Heading into Election Day, nearly 9 in 10 Trump voters said fraud was a serious issue. Afterward, just a bit over one-third said so.Trump’s victory over Vice President Kamala Harris has scrambled public opinion about a range of other issues, too. For example, his supporters were also more likely to feel good about the economy after the election — while Harris supporters adopted a more negative outlook.Those are among the results of a new POLITICO|Morning Consult poll, designed to measure change in public opinion before and after the election. The results largely track with recent consumer sentiment data and comments from Republican leaders.Our new poll showed voters’ perceptions of issues like election security and the economy swung substantially post-election, with deep differences based on who they voted for. The poll also found mixed expectations for a second Trump term. The first poll (toplines, crosstabs) was conducted from Oct. 30 to Nov. 1, the week before the election, while the second (toplines, crosstabs) was in the field from Nov. 20 through 22, two weeks after Trump’s victory. Both surveys sampled more than 4,000 registered voters, with a margin of error of 2 percentage points. Here are some of the big takeaways we learned from the results.

• Trump supporters worried less about voter fraud after he won. In polling just days before the election, Trump supporters expressed little confidence in the election outcome, with a whopping 87 percent substantially or somewhat agreeing with the statement that voter fraud was a “serious issue” that could determine the outcome of the election. Among Harris supporters, roughly half expressed similar worries. That partisan divide disappeared after Election Day. Post-election, both Trump and Harris supporters were less likely to think that fraud affected the outcome. The swing was especially pronounced among Trump supporters, with only 36 percent agreeing after he won that fraud was a serious issue.
• Voters’ perceptions of the economy are starting to flip along partisan lines. The economy was the single biggest issue for most voters g oing into Election Day, with 81 percent of voters in the preelection POLITICO|Morning Consult polling identifying it as “very important” to determining their vote choice. Trump voters put slightly more emphasis on the economy than Harris voters, but it was important across party lines..What wasn’t the same for Trump and Harris supporters: What they thought of the preelection economy — and what they think now. A week before the election, just 8 percent of self-identified Trump voters described the economy as on the “right track,” the polling found. But after Trump’s victory, that number swung to 28 percent — still a minority, but a substantial swing in a span of just a few weeks when economic conditions did not change dramatically. On the flip side, Harris supporters were far less likely to say the economy was on the right track after the election, with just 46 percent saying so, down from 59 percent the week before Election Day.
• Voters also divided along partisan lines about what Trump should do — but they agree about what they think he will do. Voters are unsurprisingly divided on how the Trump administration will go: 64 percent who voted for the president-elect said they were “very optimistic” about his presidency, while 65 percent who voted for Harris said they were “very pessimistic.”But on certain issues, voters’ perceptions of what Trump will do, and how they feel about it, are more nuanced. Take the potential pardons of defendants involved in the Jan. 6, 2021 attack on the U.S. Capitol — alongtime Trump campaign promise.A majority of voters oppose the idea, although there are significant splits along partisan lines. In the post-election poll, Trump voters were somewhat divided, with 53 percent favoring pardons while 30 percent opposed them. (Meanwhile, 18 percent weren’t sure).Harris voters were overwhelmingly against the idea of pardoning Jan. 6 defendants, with 74 percent strongly opposing it.But when it came to whether they believe Trump is likely to issue those pardons, the gaps were a bit smaller: Voters think he will. Sixty-percent of Trump voters thought it was very or somewhat likely the president-elect will issue pardons or clemency, while 81 percent of Harris voters did.

Mitch McConnell criticizes Democratic judges' unretirement after Trump victory --Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) vented his displeasure Monday after two Democratic-appointed federal judges reversed their decisions to retire in what appear to be efforts to stop President-elect Trump from nominating their successors. McConnell called the unusual decisions to forgo retirement following Trump’s sweeping victory last month a “partisan” gambit that would undermine the integrity of federal courts. “They rolled the dice that a Democrat could replace them, and now that he won’t, they’re changing their plans to keep a Republican from doing it,” McConnell said on the Senate floor. “It’s a brazen admission. And the incoming administration would be wise to explore all available recusal options with these judges, because it’s clear now that they have a political finger on the scale,” he said. “This sort of partisan behavior undermines the integrity of the judiciary. It exposes bold Democratic blue where there should only be black robes,” McConnell warned. U.S. District Judge Max Cogburn, an appointee of former President Obama who sits on the court for the Western District of North Carolina, decided to remain in active service despite announcing in 2022 that he would assume part-time senior status. Cogburn’s change of plans came after U.S. District Judge Algenon Marbley, a judge for the Southern District of Ohio, reversed his intention to take senior status on the court after Trump won the presidential election last month. Marbley was appointed to the bench by former President Clinton. “It’s hard to conclude this is anything other than open partisanship,” McConnell declared. McConnell said the decisions threatened to undermine a deal struck before Thanksgiving between Senate Democrats and Republicans to confirm about a dozen district judges in exchange for Trump getting four more circuit-court seats to fill. He warned it would be a serious problem if two circuit court judges in Tennessee and North Carolina, whose seats were part of that Senate deal, were to also reverse their decisions to retire. “It would be especially alarming if either of the two circuit judges whose announced retirements created the vacancies currently pending before the Senate — in Tennessee and North Carolina — were to follow suit,” McConnell said. “Never before has a circuit judge unretired after a presidential election. It’s literally unprecedented. And to create such a precedent would fly in the face of a rare bipartisan compromise on the disposition of these vacancies,” he argued.

California special session to 'safeguard' state from Trump kicks off with proposed $25 million legal fund --Gov. Gavin Newsom's special legislative session to safeguard California from potential "federal overreach" by the incoming Trump administration began Monday, teeing up a potential battle between the president-elect and the most populous U.S. state. Newsom is working with lawmakers to create a new litigation fund of up to $25 million to support California's legal resources in anticipation of "policy proposals that would harm the state," according to a release from the governor's office Monday. Reproductive rights and environmental causes are two of the focus areas. The fund would be for the California Department of Justice and other state agencies to be used for court challenges and administrative actions. Newsom announced the session following Trump's election victory last month. Hearings will take place over the next several weeks, with a goal of signing legislation into law before Trump's inauguration Jan. 20. Karoline Leavitt, a spokesperson for the Trump transition, said in a statement that the president-elect will pursue his agenda despite efforts by Newsom to "Trump-proof California." "President Trump received the most votes for a Republican presidential candidate in the deep blue state of California since 2004," Leavitt said. "Californians showed up for President Trump in historic numbers because they cannot afford another four years of Gavin Newsom's dangerously liberal agenda — high taxes, unaffordable housing costs, and an invasion of illegal immigrants from our wide-open border." In a conversation with volunteers after the election, Newsom said the state needed to be ready for action as the next administration takes hold. "I think there's a lot of onus that's placed upon California because [of] the size, scale and scope of this state," he said at the time. "We need to assert ourselves, and we need to prepare ourselves firmly and plant, as I say, our feet at peril that we get swept away."

House COVID-19 panel releases final report: 3 key takeaways -The House Select Subcommittee on the Coronavirus Pandemic released its final report Monday, laying out numerous conclusions from its review of the federal pandemic response, including what the Republican-controlled panel believes to be the likely origins of the virus. The 520-page document encompassed a wide range of issues relating to the pandemic including vaccinations, public health guidance, state-level actions and use of relief funds. “Since February 2023, the Select Subcommittee sought to produce a full after-action report to provide a road map of how we, in Congress, the Executive, and the private sector may better prepare for and respond to future pandemics,” subcommittee Chair Brad Wenstrup (R-Ohio) said in a letter. “Throughout this process, the Select Subcommittee sent more than 100 investigative letters, conducted 38 transcribed interviews or depositions, held 25 hearings or meetings, and reviewed more than one million pages of documents from of custodians,” he noted. The subcommittee’s hearings were often marked by contentious back-and-forth between members and witnesses. Several interviews were held behind closed doors, including two days of interviews with Anthony Fauci, former director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, earlier this year. Wenstrup listed seven specific findings in his letter, including that the National Institutes of Health funded controversial gain-of-function research at the Wuhan Institute of Virology, Operation Warp Speed was “tremendous success” and the public school closures will have an “enduring impact” on American children. Here are three takeaways from the report:

• Lab leak theory: The report starts with the finding that the SARS-CoV-2 virus “likely emerged because of a laboratory or research related accident.” This finding was supported by remarks from people like Robert Redfield, the former director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), former Director of National IntelligenceJohn Ratcliffe and former U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson, all of whom publicly stated their support for the lab leak theory. “Based on my initial analysis of the data, I came to believe — and still believe today — that it indicates COVID-19 infections more likely were the result of an accidental lab leak than the result of a natural spillover event,” Redfield is quoted as saying. The report also found Fauci “prompted” the 2020 study titled “The proximal origin of SARS-CoV-2,” which supported the natural origins theory, to “disprove” the lab leak theory. When he testified before the committee in June, Fauci reiterated that he did not edit the study or help to “suppress” the lab leak theory. Different federal agencies have drawn different conclusions about the most likely origin of the virus, but it remains a mystery.
• Mitigation efforts” The report is critical of many of the mitigation measures that were employed early on in the pandemic. It found that masks and mask mandates were “ineffective at controlling the spread of COVID-19.” Several studies, including one published this August, have found masking in public has an effect on lowering respiratory viral transmission, though this should not be the sole measure used to mitigate spread.Further, the report concluded lockdowns caused “more harm than good” to the economy, overall health of Americans and development of children. The 6-foot social distancing guidance was also blasted as not being “supported by science.” “Even though it was CDC guidance and not a mandate, it was forcefully implemented by state and local governments and caused lots of strife amongst Americans,” the report states. However, there were some measures that the subcommittee found to have had some benefit or merit. The public-private partnerships that were made to enable widespread COVID-19 testing early on in the pandemic allowed for “readily available and accurate tests,” though COVID-19 testing was called “flawed” in the report. Travel restrictions were also cited as having saved lives.“With four years of hindsight, it is clear the international travel restrictions early in the pandemic delayed spread of the virus but did not prevent COVID-19 from entering the U.S.,” states the report.
• EcoHealth probes: The subcommittee’s report paid particular attention to the actions of EcoHealth Alliance, the nongovernmental organization that sub-awarded NIH grants to global labs including the Wuhan Institute of Virology. Echoing criticism from members of the subcommittee, the report found EcoHealth failed to carry out proper oversight of the experiments it provided funding for, facilitated gain-of-function research and misled the NIH on the details of its research projects. The NIH in turn also was found to have failed in its oversight of EcoHealth. The report found that the Justice Department had empaneled a criminal grand jury to investigate the origins of COVID-19. “EcoHealth was subject to numerous federal investigations regarding both its potential role in the COVID-19 pandemic, but also multiple accusations surrounding violated federal grant policies. The outcomes of most of these investigations are public,” it states. “However, the Select Subcommittee discovered that DOJ was also investigating the origins of COVID-19,” it continued. “The specific details of the investigation are unknown but, based on documents, it appears the DOJ’s investigation involves EcoHealth’s role in the COVID-19 pandemic.”

Lessons From The COVID Fringe -- Some of you may have already seen the report produced by the House Select Subcommittee on the Coronavirus Pandemic this week, reported on by the New York Post and multiple other outlets. It concludes that COVID-19 most likely originated from a laboratory incident at the Wuhan Institute of Virology in China. The report also criticizes the implementation of social distancing and mask mandates during the pandemic, asserting that these measures lacked a solid scientific foundation. It also highlights that Dr. Anthony Fauci, former director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, testified that social distancing guidelines "sort of just appeared" without substantial scientific backing. After reading that today, I had a flashback to just how ostracized I was during the lead-up to COVID and during COVID for exploring all sorts of “crazy” theories other than those explicitly blessed by Pfizer. As I wrote in my inaugural blog post here in 2021, even just sounding the alarm on COVID itself—before it became a mainstream media news story—got me labeled as a “conspiracy theorist” and “fearmonger.” From there, discussions about alternative treatments, the safety of brand-new mRNA vaccines, and the origins of the coronavirus all similarly landed me in the same “misinformation” crosshairs. And think about it: I didn’t even have much of a following at the time, nor was I a prominent source of alternative news. I was just an investor on Twitter, trying to have a discussion about what, precisely, the hell was going on. It floors me to look at how casually some of the conclusions we now have regarding the virus are discussed. People today go about life as though there were never any COVID restrictions, and findings we now talk about casually—like COVID coming from a lab—could have gotten you kicked off social media, de-banked, or even arrested and thrown in jail just four years ago. That is not hyperbole. That’s a man that watched the forces “in control” arrest a solitary surfer on a paddleboard out in the middle of the ocean for being outside. This was reality four years ago: Starting with a slight, limited hangout some years back, people today talk about the likelihood that the virus leaked from a lab as though they’re just twiddling their thumbs. That statement would’ve been beyond blasphemous four years ago. We’ve already seen Chris Cuomo come out and admit that ivermectin was prescribed to him for COVID. That’s another statement that would have been deemed completely blasphemous just four years ago. At least we got redemption by both Rogan and Dave Smith on the ivermectin issue. Today, people walk around unmasked, not even giving a second thought to the insane rules that were put in place during COVID. When was the last time someone asked you to keep six feet of separation? Four years ago, not doing so was blasphemous. As I’ve written many times before, these Covid wake-up calls have solidified for me that the mainstream media can never be trusted again. I don’t want to tell anyone else that this is the case for them; everyone is free to make up their own mind. But for me, I’ve seen and heard enough. Above all, however, the one lesson my COVID flashbacks today reinforced was that it takes insane courage to speak out against the powers that be when the government is at the peak of trying to tell you how to feel and what to think. As I said in a 2021 podcast with Dave Collum, the propaganda to get vaccinated in 2021 was beyond overwhelming. Remember this shit? And those are the times it takes the most courage and the biggest resolve to stand up for liberty, civil rights, and the objective truth as you see it. I didn’t have the courage to examine the other side of the coin when the Russia-Ukraine war started, but my friend George Gammon did, and I’m glad I listened to his podcast to hear about the context I was missing. I didn’t have the courage to publicly put together a comprehensive case for why COVID may have come from a lab, but Zero Hedge did, and I’m glad I got to read their analysis—which, by the way, got them kicked off Twitter at the time. The whole point of starting my blog was to examine narratives on the “fringe” and do my best to arrive at objective truths. I came to this method of thinking because it coincides with investing: you want to know all the facts about a company and hear the best bull and bear cases available before you make your decision. The more data you have access to, the more informed you are, and the more likely you are to make the “right” decision as you see it. The same principle applies to politics and current events. Reading that COVID-19 report today was a reminder—not only to pay closer attention to those loud objectors the next time I’m having a narrative mercilessly stuffed down my throat—but also to try and have a modicum more courage than I’ve had in years past to find my own voice and courage to speak up when something doesn’t make sense to me.

New data highlight the financial burden of long COVID -- In a new study in Health Services Research, US researchers from the University of Georgia report that the cost of long COVID is making it harder for people to pay their bills, buy groceries, and pay for utilities. And those in the lower-income brackets are hardest hit by the chronic condition.Related findings, meanwhile, show that the two-dose booster vaccine appears to cut the risk of long COVID by more than a third over and above the protection provided by the first three vaccine doses.The first study is based on findings from 271,076 adults who participated in the 2022 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS). In total 9,998 participants said they had long COVID. The study authors measured financial hardship caused by long COVID through three indicators: food insecurity, inability to pay bills, or the threat of losing utility services. Participants were asked to rate each indicator on a binary scale. The people in lower income groups and those without college degrees were disproportionately affected by the condition. Food insecurity was the most prevalent indicator among adults with long COVID in all income and education groups other than the top income group. Long COVID was associated with an increase in the probability of experiencing food insecurity by 2 to 10 percentage points above what it would have been without long COVID. Participants in the lowest income group also reported being at risk of losing utilities and unable to pay bills. Only the two highest-income groups did not report these economic challenges, and the authors suggested that wealthy people with long COVID had sufficient resources to mitigate the short-term impacts of long COVID and had job flexibility to work from home if needed."Lower income groups probably have less savings and less to fall back on if something happens with their job," study author Ishtiaque Fazlul, PhD, said in a press release from the University of Georgia. "Lower socioeconomic groups also tend to have more hands-on jobs that have less opportunity to work from home. If their income decreases even by a little bit, they may cross a threshold that makes them food insecure and makes it difficult to pay bills."Currently about 17.6 million Americans are thought to have long COVID, or persistent symptoms of COVID-19 infection lasting at least 3 months past initial infection. Long COVID is a growing source of disability.In the second long-COVID study, published yesterday in Clinical Infectious Diseases, researchers found the bivalent (two-strain) COVID booster is associated with a 38% lower risk of long COVID over and above that provided by the original two-dose monovalent (single-strain) ancestral vaccine plus monovalent ancestral booster. The study was based on nearly 1 million people in Singapore.This is one of the first studies to look at associations between bivalent boosters and long COVID following Omicron-variant infection.The study compared outcomes after 1,080,348 vaccine-breakthrough infections after an ancestral mRNA booster, compared to 9,824 vaccine-breakthrough infections following a bivalent mRNA booster.Overall, those who were infected after a bivalent booster had an estimated 37.8% lower risk of developing long COVID than those who only had an original vaccination series. Moreover, there was reduced risk of thrombotic disorders (hazard ratio [HR], 0.54), episodic neurologic disorders (HR, 0.55) movement disorders (HR, 0.57), and autoimmune vasculitis (HR, 0.54) 31 to 365 days post-infection amongst who received prior bivalent boosters, versus those boosted with ancestral mRNA vaccines, the authors said.

Americans' view of health care quality at record low, poll shows -- Americans’ outlook on the quality of health care in the U.S. is at a 24-year low, according to a new survey. The Gallup poll, released Friday, shows 33 percent of U.S. adults said the quality of American health care is excellent, and 11 percent said it is good. That 44 percent represents a 10 percent drop from 2020. Another 38 percent of respondents said health care quality was “fair,” while 16 percent gave it a “poor” rating.Health care coverage received an even worse rating than the quality of care, per the survey. Only 28 percent of U.S. adults said coverage was “excellent” or “good,” according to the survey. It is a 12-point decrease from a 2012 poll, when Americans’ view of the quality of coverage was at its peak, garnering nearly 41 percent support.Republicans and Republican-leaning independents have held a negative view of health care in the U.S. since President-elect Trump departed the Oval Office in 2021. The figure, however, has been relatively consistent among Democrats and Democrat-leaning independents in the same period, according to the pollster.Approximately 42 percent of Republicans see health care quality as excellent or good, representing a more than 25-point downturn compared to 2020, when it was at 68 percent. Democrats were seemingly more optimistic about health care in 2024, with 50 percent rating it positively, the poll found.Both sides of the aisle are dissatisfied with health care coverage, the survey shows, with only 0 percent of Democrats and 25 percent of Republicans giving a positive rating.Only 19 percent of respondents said they were satisfied with the cost of health care. That figure was relatively unchanged from 2023. The rating reached its peak of 30 percent in 2020, Gallup noted.Respondents also labeled high costs as the most urgent health problem facing the nation, with 23 percent saying as much. Access to health care and addressing obesity followed behind, with 14 percent and 13 percent respectively identifying the issues as important, per the poll.

Will Medicare and Medicaid coverage for anti-obesity drugs survive RFK Jr.? = Last month, as one of its last major health policy actions, the Biden administration filed a proposed rule change by the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) that would require Medicare and Medicaid to provide coverage for anti-obesity medications beginning in 2026. Without insurance coverage, many of these drugs—Trulicity, Byetta, Ozempic, Wegovy, and Zepbound—could easily cost more than $1,200 per month out of pocket, making them prohibitively expensive for working people. Presently, CMS regulations prohibit Medicare from covering drugs for weight loss, including those that promote fertility, smoking cessation and various other conditions it deems medically unnecessary. These drugs are only allowed for Medicare and Medicaid recipients with diabetes and heart disease. The rule change reflects the growing scientific recognition of obesity also as a chronic disease and the importance of weight loss in improving the well-being and health of obese people, beyond any cosmetic concerns. A White House factsheet noted that 3.4 million Medicare recipients and 4 million adult Medicaid enrollees would gain low-cost access to these medications. The statement did not note, however, that the CMS approval has been delayed so long that the incoming Trump administration will have the opportunity to block it. CMS has estimated the additional coverage will cost the federal government about $25 billion for Medicare and $11 billion for Medicaid over a decade with an extra $4 billion from states participating in Medicaid. These figures make no allowance for anticipated cost savings because those who use the weight-loss drugs will be in better health. However, approval for these changes to Medicare and Medicaid drug coverages will require the endorsement of the incoming Trump administration, which has unequivocally stated it plans to cut federal spending. In particular, Robert F Kennedy Jr., as secretary of the Department of Health and Human Services, has expressed his disdain for weight loss treatments. Kennedy said on Fox News before the election, “If we just gave good food, three meals a day, to every man, woman and child in our country, we could solve the obesity and diabetes epidemic overnight.” Irrespective of Kennedy’s disinformation campaigns and ignorant and irresponsible opinions, this new class of anti-obesity prescription medications has grown in popularity and acceptance, with the latest Kaiser Family Foundation (KFF) poll finding that one in eight adult Americans has taken a Glucagon-like peptide-1 (GLP-1), the technical name for anti-obesity drugs. One-third of those polled had heard of these drugs. Four of 10 who take such treatments have diabetes, and another quarter have heart disease. One in five using the drugs have been diagnosed with obesity. Half of those who say they take the medications said it was difficult to afford the cost, and one in five said it was very difficult. And while most insured adults said that insurance covered at least a part of the costs, more than half said that the cost was still difficult to afford. To place the obesity crisis into perspective, a recent Lancet study found that in 2021 an estimated 15.1 million children and adolescents (5 to 14 years), 21.4 million older adolescents (15 to 24 years), and 172 million adults (25 years and older) were overweight or obese in the US. This means that half of adolescents and three-quarters of adults in America suffer from being clinically overweight or obese. This is double the rate in 1990. And without intervention, it is estimated the rates of adolescents classified as overweight or obese would rise to 60 percent by 2050, while for adults that figure will reach 80 percent. Normal weight defined as a body-mass index (BMI) of 18.5 to 24.9. Overweight is defined as a BMI 25 to 29.9, and obesity a BMI of 30 or more. Severe obesity includes anyone over a BMI of 40 and morbid obesity as anyone with a BMI over 50. The current rate of obesity in the US has been steady at 40 percent, but the rate of severe obesity has continued to rise. Also, one in five children and adolescents aged two to 19 lives with obesity.

Make America Healthy Again: An Unconventional Movement That May Have Found Its Moment -- Within days of Donald Trump’s election victory, health care entrepreneur Calley Means turned to social media to crowdsource advice. “First 100 days,” said Means, a former consultant to Big Pharma who uses the social platform X to focus attention on chronic disease. “What should be done to reform the FDA?”The question was more than rhetorical. Means is among a cadre of health business leaders and nonmainstream doctors who are influencing President Donald Trump’s focus on health policy.Trump’s return to the White House has given Means and others in this space significant clout in shaping the nascent health policies of the new administration and its federal agencies. It’s also giving newfound momentum to “Make America Healthy Again,” or MAHA, a controversial movement that challenges prevailing thinking on public health and chronic disease. Its followers couch their ideals in phrases like “health freedom” and “true health.” Their stated causes are as diverse as revamping certain agricultural subsidies, firing National Institutes of Health employees, rethinking childhood vaccination schedules, and banning marketing of ultra-processed foods to children on TV.The movement is largely anti-regulatory and anti-big government, whether concerning raw milk or drug approvals, although implementing changes would require more regulation. Many of its concepts cross over to include ideas that have also been championed by some on the far left. Robert F. Kennedy Jr., an anti-vaccine activist Trump has nominated to run the Department of Health and Human Services, has called for firing hundreds of people at the National Institutes of Health, removing fluoride from water, boosting federal support for psychedelic therapy, and loosening restrictions on raw milk, consumption of which can expose consumers to foodborne illness. Its sale has prompted federal raids on farms for not complying with food safety regulations. Means has called for top-down changes at the U.S. Department of Agriculture, which he says has been co-opted by the food industry. Though he himself is not trained in science or medicine, he has said people had almost no chance of dying of covid-19 if they were “metabolically healthy,” referring to eating, sleeping, exercise, and stress management habits, and has said that about 85% of deaths and health care costs in the U.S. are tied to preventable foodborne metabolic conditions. A co-founder of Truemed, a company that helps consumers use pretax savings and reimbursement programs on supplements, sleep aids, and exercise equipment, Means says he has had conversations behind closed doors with dozens of members of Congress. He said he also helped bring RFK Jr. and Trump together. RFK Jr. endorsed Trump in August after ending his independent presidential campaign. “I had this vision for a year, actually. It sounds very woo-woo, but I was in a sweat tent with him in Austin at a campaign event six months before, and I just had this strong vision of him standing with Trump,” Means said recently on the Joe Rogan Experience podcast. The former self-described never-Trumper said that, after Trump’s first assassination attempt, he felt it was a powerful moment. Means called RFK Jr. and worked with conservative political commentator Tucker Carlson to connect him to the former president. Trump and RFK Jr. then had weeks of conversations about topics such as child obesity and causes of infertility, Means said. He is joined in the effort by his sister, Casey Means, a Stanford University-trained doctor and co-author with her brother of “Good Energy,” a book about improving metabolic health. The duo has blamed Big Pharma and the agriculture industry for increasing rates of obesity, depression, and chronic health conditions in the country. They have also raised questions about vaccines. “Yeah, I bet that one vaccine probably isn’t causing autism, but what about the 20 that they are getting before 18 months,” Casey Means said in the Joe Rogan podcast episode with her brother. The movement, which challenges what its adherents call “the cult of science,” gained significant traction during the pandemic, fueled by a backlash against vaccine and mask mandates that flourished during the Biden administration. Many of its supporters say they gained followers who believed they had been misled on the effectiveness of covid-19 vaccines. In July 2022, Deborah Birx, covid-19 response coordinator in Trump’s first administration, said on Fox News that “we overplayed the vaccines,” although she noted that they do work. Anthony Fauci, who advised Trump during the pandemic, in December 2020 called the vaccines a game changer that could diminish covid-19 the way the polio vaccine did for that disease. Eventually, though, it became evident that the shots don’t necessarily prevent transmission and the effectiveness of the booster wanes with time, which some conservatives say led to disillusionment that has driven interest in the health freedom movement. Joe Grogan, a former director of the White House’s Domestic Policy Council and assistant to Trump, said conservatives have been trying to articulate why government control of health care is troublesome. “Two things have happened. The government went totally overboard and lied about many things during covid and showed no compassion about people’s needs outside of covid,” he said. “RFK Jr. came along and articulated very simply that government control of health care can’t be trusted, and we’re spending money, and it isn’t making anyone healthier. In some instances, it may be making people sicker.” The MAHA movement capitalizes on many of the nonconventional health concepts that have been darlings of the left, such as promoting organic foods and food as medicine. But in an environment of polarized politics, the growing prominence of leaders who challenge what they call the cult of science could lead to more public confusion and division, some health analysts say.

Sanders: RFK Jr. stance on food industry 'exactly correct,' other things he says 'extremely dangerous' - Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) seemingly backed some of Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s opinions on certain aspects of the health industry, though he still expressed concerns over some of Kennedy’s other health-related views. “I think what he’s saying about the food industry is exactly correct. I think you have a food industry concerned about their profits, could care less about the health of the American people. I think they have to be taken on,” Sanders said during a Thursday interview with CBS News correspondent Natalie Brand. . President-elect Trump tapped Kennedy, a vaccine skeptic and environmental lawyer, to lead the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) last month. The nomination sent shock waves among public health experts, who worry he could meddle with key government agencies, amplify vaccine hesitancy and direct agency funding to favor his preferred views. Kennedy brings a deep skepticism of pharmaceutical companies and the federal agencies overseeing them. The former independent presidential candidate previously said federal health regulators are “sock puppets” held captive by industry special interests. He has promised to purge entire departments at the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) to eliminate corruption. Sanders, who holds the top post on the Senate Health, Education, Labor and Pensions Committee, also expressed criticisms of Kennedy. During the CBS News interview, he called some of Kennedy’s suggestions, like removing fluoride from public water and his views on vaccines, “extremely dangerous.”Kennedy said during an interview with NBC News last month that he won’t take away vaccines from people when Trump takes office in January.“If vaccines are working for somebody, I’m not going to take them away. People ought to have [a] choice, and that choice ought to be informed by the best information,” he said.“So I’m going to make sure scientific safety studies and efficacy are out there, and people can make individual assessments about whether that product is going to be good for them,” Kennedy added.His vow came after Trump-Vance transition team co-Chair Howard Lutnick said in a CNN interview on Oct. 30 that Kennedy wants to conduct studies to prove vaccines are unsafe and eventually pull them from the market.Public health agencies such as the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) have long maintained that vaccines are safe and effective, citing results from clinical studies and real-world data.Sanders’s interview followed a Senate hearing where he slammed FDA officials for what he described as the country’s “horrific epidemic” of obesity and diabetes, according to CBS News.“Do I think the FDA has brought forth the kind of urgency that is needed to address this crisis? No, I don’t. That’s the point I tried to make today,” Sanders said, as reported by CBS News. Sanders’s opinion on Kennedy’s views on public health follow similar comments he made during a recent interview with Business Insider, where he said Kennedy was “right” about America’s “unhealthy society.”“When Kennedy talks about an unhealthy society, he’s right,” Sanders told Business Insider. “The amount of chronic illness that we have is just extraordinary.” Sanders had also mentioned he thinks Kennedy’s anti-vaccine stance is “kind of crazy” and a conspiracy theory, but overall, “some of what he’s saying is not crazy.”

Trump says he will appoint loyalist and top January 6 co-conspirator Kash Patel to head FBI -- Over the weekend, President-elect Donald Trump announced that Kashyap “Kash” Patel would be the next director of the Federal Bureau of Investigation. It is expected that Trump will fire current FBI Director Christopher Wray either on, or shortly after, his January 20 inauguration. Like virtually all of Trump’s nominations, Patel earned Trump’s trust by demonstrating unswerving loyalty before, during and after the January 6, 2021 attempted coup. Speaking on fascist Steve Bannon’s War Room show in December 2023, Patel promised if Trump was re-elected, “We will go out and find the conspirators not just in government, but in the media,” adding, “We’re going to come after you whether it’s criminally or civilly.” Bannon warned, “This is not just rhetoric. We’re absolutely dead serious.” Posting on Truth Social on Saturday, Trump hailed Patel as an “‘America First’ fighter” who played a “pivotal role in uncovering the Russia, Russia, Russia Hoax, standing as advocate for truth, accountability, and the Constitution.” Acknowledging the leading role the FBI will play in his planned mass deportation operation, Trump wrote, “This FBI will end the growing crime epidemic in America, dismantle the migrant criminal gangs, and stop the evil scourge of human and drug trafficking across the Border.” Current FBI Director Wray was selected by Trump to head the agency for a 10-year term beginning in 2017. Wray’s failing is that, unlike Patel, he did not publicly support Trump’s efforts to stay in power after losing the 2020 election. Instead, Wray, a Republican, supported Trump’s coup in less overt ways, including refusing to issue security warnings prior to the attack on Congress. After the attack, Wray testified to Congress that the FBI was unaware that fascist paramilitaries, many of whom had been informants for the FBI for years, were preparing to attack Congress in order to block certification of the Electoral College vote. Touting the 44-year-old Patel’s over decade-long service in the federal government, Trump noted that during his first term, Patel was “Chief of Staff at the Department of Defense, Deputy Director of National Intelligence, and Senior Director for Counterterrorism at the National Security Council.” Prior to working in the Trump administration, Patel provided legal justification for the US to kill so-called “terrorists” during the Barack Obama administration. He wrote with pride on his role in Obama’s Department of Justice in his 2023 book Government Gangsters: The Deep State, the Truth, and the Battle for Our Democracy:“I was embedded with America’s top special operations teams, through the US Special Operations Command (SOCOM), to help manage special military operations and maximize impact.”

Trump’s FBI pick has plans to reshape the bureau. This is what Kash Patel has said he wants to do (AP) — Kash Patel has been well-known for years within Donald Trump’s orbit as a loyal supporter who shares the president-elect’s skepticism of the FBI and intelligence community. But he’s receiving fresh attention, from the public and from Congress, now thatTrump has picked him to lead the FBI. As he braces for a bruising and likely protracted Senate confirmation fight, Patel can expect scrutiny not only over his professed fealty to Trump but also for his belief — revealed over the last year in interviews and his own book — that the century-old FBI should be radically overhauled. Here’s a look at some of what he’s proposed for the nation’s premier federal law enforcement agency. How much of it he’d actually follow through on is a separate question.

• He’s mused about shutting down the FBI’s Washington headquarters. “I’d shut down the FBI Hoover Building on day one and reopen it the next day as a museum of the ‘deep state,’” Patel said in an interview on the “Shawn Ryan Show” that aired in September. “Then, I’d take the 7,000 employees that work in that building and send them across America to chase down criminals. Go be cops. You’re cops — go be cops.” In a book last year titled, “Government Gangsters: The Deep State, the Truth and the Battle for Our Democracy,” he proposed a more modest reform of having the headquarters moved out of Washington “to prevent institutional capture and curb FBI leadership from engaging in political gamesmanship.”
• He’s talked about finding ‘conspirators’ in the government and media. It’s not entirely clear what he envisions, but to the extent Patel wants to make it easier for the government to crack down on officials who disclose sensitive information and the reporters who receive it, it sounds like he’d back a reversal of current Justice Department policy that generally prohibits prosecutors from seizing the records of journalists in leak investigations.That policy was implemented in 2021 by Attorney General Merrick Garland following an uproar over the revelation that the Justice Department during the Trump administration had obtained phone records of reporters as part of investigations into who had disclosed government secrets.Patel himself has said that it’s yet to be determined whether such a crackdown would be done civilly or criminally. His book includes several pages of former officials from the FBI, Justice Department and other federal agencies he’s identified as being part of the “Executive Branch Deep State.” Under the FBI’s own guidelines, criminal investigations can’t be rooted in arbitrary or groundless speculation but instead must have an authorized purpose to detect or interrupt criminal activity.
• He wants ‘major, major’ surveillance reform. Patel has been a fierce critic of the FBI’s use of its surveillance authorities under the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act, and in his “Shawn Ryan Show” interview, called for “major, major reform.” That position aligns him with both left-leaning civil libertarians who have long been skeptical of government power and Trump supporters outraged by well-documented surveillance missteps during the FBI’s investigation into potential ties between Russia and Trump’s 2016 campaign. But it sets him far apart from FBI leadership, which has stressed the need for the bureau to retain its ability to spy on suspected spies and terrorists even as it’s also implemented corrective steps meant to correct past abuses. If confirmed, Patel would take over the FBI amid continued debate over a particularly contentious provision of FISA known as Section 702, which permits the U.S. to collect without a warrant the communications of non-Americans located outside the country for the purpose of gathering foreign intelligence.
• He has called for reducing the size of the intelligence community. Patel has advocated cutting the federal government’s intelligence community, including the CIAand National Security Agency. When it comes to the FBI, he has said that he would support breaking off the bureau’s “intel shops” from the rest of its crime-fighting activities.It’s not clear exactly how he would intend to do that given that the FBI’s intelligence-gathering operations form a core part of the bureau’s mandate and budget. Wray, who’s been in the job for seven years, has also recently warned of a heightened threat environment related to international and domestic terrorism.After the Sept. 11, 2001 attacks, then-FBI Director Robert Mueller faced down calls from some in Congress who thought the FBI should be split up, with a new domestic intelligence agency created in its wake.The idea died, and Mueller committed new resources into transforming what for decades had been primarily a domestic law enforcement agency into an intelligence-gathering institution equally focused on combating terrorism, spies and foreign threats.

Trump names Massad Boulos, campaign liaison and family relative, as a senior adviser on Middle East -President-elect Donald Trump on Sunday named Massad Boulos, a Lebanese American businessman who is the father-in-law of Trump's daughter Tiffany, as a senior adviser on Arab and Middle Eastern affairs. Boulos arranged Trump campaign efforts to engage the Arab American community in Michigan, organizing dozens of meetings in areas with large Arab American populations angered by Democratic President Joe Biden's backing of Israel's offensives in Gaza and Lebanon. Trump won the majority Arab American city of Dearborn Heights on his way to sweeping Michigan and other swing states. "He has been a longtime proponent of Republican and Conservative values, an asset to my Campaign, and was instrumental in building tremendous new coalitions with the Arab American Community," Trump said in a post on Truth Social. Trump and Boulos said the Republican president-elect would bring peace to the Middle East, but neither has publicly offered concrete details on Trump's plans for the region. Boulos has previously sought office in Lebanon and has long-standing ties to political figures in the country. Other Trump picks for key national security positions are staunch supporters of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, a Trump ally. Mike Huckabee, Trump's pick for ambassador to Israel, has consistently rejected a Palestinian state in territories seized by Israel. He has claimed "there really isn't such a thing" as Palestinians, in referring to the descendants of people who lived in Palestine before the establishment of Israel. Trump's pick for defense secretary, Pete Hegseth, advocated for rebuilding a biblical Jewish temple on the site of Al-Aqsa Mosque, one of Islam's holiest sites. Boulos helped capitalize on dissension within the Democratic base over support for the Israeli offensive in Gaza, where more than 44,000 people have died since Hamas' attacks on Oct. 7, 2023, according to health officials in the Hamas-run territory who don't separate civilians and fighters in their totals.

With Ag secretary pick, Trump brushes back RFK Jr. - Robert F. Kennedy Jr. spent weeks lobbying Donald Trump to nominate an Agriculture secretary who would be his ally in a war with the sugar, soybean, corn and other farm commodity interests he argues are poisoning Americans. Working largely from his home in California, Trump’s pick to lead the Department of Health and Human Services even meticulously vetted and put forward his own list of candidates to run the massive agency responsible for the country’s farm and food policy, according to three people familiar with the discussions. But Trump went a different direction. Instead, the president-elect made a wild-card pick — a former White House aide with little formal experience in agriculture policy and no record on the public health concerns driving Kennedy’s agenda. Trump’s choice of Brooke Rollins, who co-founded the Trump-aligned think tank America First Policy Institute, to lead the Agriculture Department represents something of a victory for the entrenched agriculture interests that view Kennedy as a foe. And it shows the potential limits of Kennedy’s power to pursue his “Make America Healthy Again” agenda in a Trump administration attuned to the concerns of industry. “Brooke Rollins is a savvy operator, and she’s not going to serve as anyone’s lackey,” said one farm state GOP lawmaker. They and more than a dozen other individuals interviewed for this story were granted anonymity to candidly discuss transition decision-making. “RFK may have broad discretion at HHS, but I have every expectation that Secretary Rollins will be the one actually calling the shots at USDA. That’s going to give America’s farmers and ranchers a certain amount of comfort.” Kennedy and his advisers were certainly hoping for a more vocal ally in the job. As the search for a nominee intensified, he personally lobbied Trump on the matter, while making clear to transition officials that he expected the eventual Agriculture secretary to work closely with him to overhaul U.S. food and agriculture policy, according to two people familiar with the discussions. Among Kennedy’s preferred candidates for the job: Rep. Thomas Massie (R-Ky.), who like Kennedy, has advocated for slashing federal farm subsidy programs, which Republicans in farm districts have carefully guarded over the years arguing they protect vulnerable farmers and help produce enough food to feed the country. Kennedy also advocated for Texas Agriculture Commissioner Sid Miller in the final hours before Trump made his pick. But powerful, conservative-leaning agriculture groups, many of which have long-established ties to Trump, warned the president-elect’s team to keep Kennedy and candidates like Massie and Miller away from USDA. Such picks would alienate large swaths of the industry, which reliably supports Republicans. Trump won most rural counties in a landslide in November, outperforming his 2020 margins in those areas. Instead, agriculture groups pushed their own candidates who had strong backing among a faction of Trump officials, such as former Trump USDA official Ray Starling.

Trumps picks former Sen. David Perdue as ambassador to China - President-elect Trump has tapped former Georgia Sen. David Perdue (R) to serve as the ambassador to China. “Tonight, I am announcing that former U.S. Senator, David Perdue, has accepted my appointment as the next United States Ambassador to the People’s Republic of China,” Trump wrote in a post on Truth Social on Thursday.Perdue, who served as a senator from 2015 to 2021, was a member of both the Armed Services and Foreign Relations committees. He ran for governor of Georgia in 2021 and was endorsed by Trump.In 2021, Perdue said he would support challenging the Electoral College vote if he remained in the Senate — something he had indicated he would back in the past, which earned the praise of Trump who wrote, “David is a great guy and a patriot.” “He will be instrumental in implementing my strategy to maintain Peace in the region, and a productive working relationship with China’s leaders. David has been a loyal supporter and friend, and I look forward to working with him in his new role!” Trump wrote in the post. Jon Ossoff (D) defeated Perdue to nab his Georgia Senate seat after a runoff election in January of 2021.

Trump nominates former border chief Rodney Scott as commissioner of CBP -- President-elect Trump nominated former border chief Rodney Scott as the commissioner of U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP). “Rodney served nearly three decades in the Border Patrol, building vast experience and knowledge in Law Enforcement and Border Security,” Trump said in a Thursday night announcement on Truth Social. “Rodney served as the 24th Chief of the U.S. Border Patrol, where he implemented Remain-in-Mexico, Title 42, Safe Third Agreements, and achieved record low levels of illegal immigration.” Scott began his service in Border Patrol in the 1990s. He rose through the ranks, serving as the head of the Border Patrol during both Trump’s and President Biden’s administrations. He was appointed by Trump in February 2020. He oversaw over 21,000 personnel and backed some of Trump’s border policies, like expanding the wall with neighboring Mexico. He announced in late June 2021 that he would resign from the post, a decision that was widely anticipated. “Just a simple needs of the service directed reassignment so the new administration can place the person they want in the position,” Scott said. U.S. Border Patrol’s current chief is Jason Owens. Scott retired in mid-August 2021, accumulating nearly three decades of experience in federal law enforcement. “After retiring, Rodney has continued to educate politicians and the public about the importance of meaningful Border Security,” Trump said in the post.

White House press corps recoils at Donald Trump threat to shake-up briefing room -Signals from President-elect Trump’s team that a shake-up of the White House press briefing room could be coming are roiling journalists preparing to cover his second term. People close to Trump have said in recent days he should dramatically change who gets access to the president, suggesting podcasters, internet personalities and media deemed more friendly to him could replace outlets like the major television networks, The New York Times and The Washington Post in the room’s front rows. Reporters covering The White House, in conversations with The Hill this week, described a feeling of annoyance, frustration and dread at such an idea. Several reporters declined to comment on the record or requested anonymity to speak candidly about the possibility of a drastically changed press room and the likely kerfuffle it would spark. “It would be a total mess,” one White House reporter told The Hill this week. “I would expect people would probably boycott the briefings, though that would put certain outlets in a tough spot deciding if they want to go along with what the Trump people are trying to pull.” Traditionally, the first row of the James Brady Briefing Room has been occupied by the four major networks of NBC, CBS, ABC and Fox; The Associated Press; CNN; and Reuters. Other larger outlets such as The Wall Street Journal, CBS News Radio, NPR, The New York Times, The Washington Post and Bloomberg have seats in the second row, while some news organizations do not have formal seats in the room. The Hill has a seat in the fourth row. During President Biden’s administration and Trump’s first term, seat assignments were reviewed and determined by a committee of four members of the White House Correspondents’ Association (WHCA) board. But the White House communications office ultimately decides which reporters from which outlets receive standing credentials or short-term “day passes” to cover the president. Karoline Leavitt, Trump’s pick to be White House press secretary for his second term, raised eyebrows among members of the Washington press corps with comments telegraphing she could take a sterner approach when dealing with press coverage and during briefings. “We hope there will be decorum, certainly, and we will try to instill that,” she said during a recent Fox News appearance. “But we’re not shy of the hostile media.” Donald Trump Jr., the president’s eldest son, went a step further days later, saying during a podcast episode that the incoming president is considering “opening up the press room to a lot of these independent journalists.” “If The New York Times has lied, they’ve been averse to everything, they’re functioning as the marketing arm to the Democrat Party … why not open it up to people who have larger viewerships, stronger followings?” he said. When Leavitt was asked directly if she would bring “different voices into the press briefing room” and change rules for press briefings, she said, “We are looking at those options. And, ultimately, it’s about serving the American people and getting President Trump’s message across to them.” Neither the WHCA nor its president, Eugene Daniels of Politico, responded to a request for comment on the suggested changes to the briefing room or how the board would respond to mainstream outlets losing their privileges in the West Wing. Several reporters told The Hill they have not yet heard from the board about an updated seating chart for once Trump takes office. “I’m sure the association is looking at all of its options, as are individual outlets — at least the smart ones — if and when the Trump administration disrupts the day-to-day logistics of covering the White House,” another veteran White House reporter told The Hill. “What they may discover, though, is friendly coverage quickly can turn into, ‘Why aren’t you keeping your promises?’ coverage.” Trump and his aides showed a willingness to punish media outlets that covered him aggressively during his first term. The White House yanked the credential of CNN’s then-chief White House correspondent Jim Acosta after he and Trump argued during a 2018 press conference. Trump continues to ridicule CNN, he sued CBS News last month and has threatened to use the Federal Communications Commission to crack down on broadcast networks he says are unfair to him. A source with the Trump transition told The Hill on Tuesday that no plans have been finalized regarding any potential changes to seating arrangements in the briefing room. Some say if Trump’s aides make good on threats to turn the briefing room upside down, it will likely only cause more headaches for incoming West Wing staff. “If they think they’re going to end White House reporting by throwing everyone out or clearing out the first three rows, good luck, because that’s not how that works,” said Julie Mason, a longtime White House correspondent who now hosts a popular political radio show. “They would really beclown themselves if they put three rows of Gateway Pundit clones in the briefing room. This administration wants to be taken seriously … by doing this you make a joke of the briefing. It just makes the whole thing look ridiculous.

Trump opposes PRESS Act; Journalists' rights at risk Secret court hearing threatens the First Amendment and more - Journalist-source confidentiality doesn’t usually make headlines, but last month was an exception. President-elect Trump told Republicans to kill the PRESS Act — a bipartisan “shield” bill to protect reporters’ sources that passed the House unanimously. Journalists and press freedom advocates across the political spectrum hope he will reconsider. Journalist Catherine Herridge’s case — the month’s other big source protection story — shows why. A federal appellate court in Washington, D.C. on Nov. 18 was alarmingly skeptical of the highly respected investigative journalist’s appeal of an order holding her in contempt of court for not burning sources. What’s worse, much of the hearing was held behind closed doors, outside the view of the very journalists whose rights the case threatens. Herridge’s appeal arises from her refusal to reveal sources for reporting about a federal investigation into possible connections between the Chinese government and a university that received taxpayer funding. The president of the university, Yanping Chen, sued the FBI under the federal Privacy Act and subpoenaed Herridge for alleged communications with the FBI. That means that in addition to the First Amendment reasons to protect Herridge’s sources, there are national security ones. Letting people suspected of connections to U.S. adversaries pry through American reporters’ notebooks sure seems like a bad idea. With Herridge’s case unfolding in the nation’s capital, its outcome will have an outsized impact on the confidentiality of communications with national security reporters. Skeptics of reporters’ privileges often dream up convoluted national security threats that sound like cutting room floor material from Hollywood: A journalist holds the keys to stopping the next 9/11 in their notepad but refuses to spill, while the timebomb ticks. That’s never happened and never will (the PRESS Act contains exceptions for such scenarios anyway). But what has happened, and will happen more if Herridge’s appeal goes the wrong way, is potential foreign agents abusing the court system to take discovery of reporters’ sensitive communications with alleged intelligence sources.That’s why Herridge’s case is a big deal. It’s of great concern to everyone, not just journalists. But we only have half the story of last month’s hearing, because it was partially held in secret.

Melania Trump: Barron ‘very vocal’ in advice to his father - Incoming first lady Melania Trump said Friday her son, Barron Trump, was “very vocal” in giving advice to his father, President-elect Trump, during the 2024 presidential election, particularly on how to connect with younger audiences. Melania Trump credited the 18-year-old with convincing the president-elect to sit down with streamers and podcasters in order to reach younger voters. “He is a grown young man. I’m very proud of him about his knowledge, even about politics and giving an advice to his father — he brought in so many young people. He knows his generation, because nowadays the young generation, they don’t sit in front of TV anymore. They’re all on the tablets, they’re on the phones, and all of these podcasts and streamers,” she said during a Friday morning appearance on “Fox & Friends.”“He was very vocal, and he gave an advice to his father, and was incredible how he brought in a success because he knew exactly who his father needs to contact and to talk to,” she added. Trump used some of Barron’s advice while on the trail, sitting down with popular podcasters, including Joe Rogan, with whom he did a three-hour interview. Rogan endorsed the Republican candidate following the appearance.Back in May, Trump confirmed that he trusted his youngest son to advise him on politics.“He’s seen it. He doesn’t have to hear. He is a smart one. He doesn’t have to hear much. But he’s — he’s a great guy,” Trump said. Melania Trump shared that Barron, who is attending New York University, has an atypical college experience, including having Secret Service agents around. “I don’t think it’s possible for him to be a normal student,” she said Friday. “His experience at college is very different from any other kid, and I’m very proud of how he’s handling it.” “He knows that he’s in different position than other children,” she added.

Hegseth forced out of vets groups due to drinking, misconduct: New Yorker - Pete Hegseth, President-elect Trump’s pick to lead the Pentagon, was forced to step down by both of the two nonprofit advocacy groups that he ran due to mismanagement of funds, sexual impropriety and reports of intoxicated behavior, The New Yorker reported on Sunday. The incidents — relayed in a trail of documents and corroborated to The New Yorker by the accounts of former colleagues — took place prior to Hegseth becoming a full-time Fox News TV host in 2017. Hegseth’s reported booting from both Veterans for Freedom and Concerned Veterans for America raises further questions about his suitability to take the helm as Defense secretary, a position in which he would oversee the country’s largest federal agency that employs more than 2.8 million people. The publication cited a previously undisclosed whistleblower report on Hegseth’s time as the president of Concerned Veterans for America (CVA). That seven-page report, which chronicled his 2013 to 2016 tenure, describes him as being repeatedly intoxicated while acting in his official capacity and sometimes needing to be carried out of the organization’s events. The report had been created by multiple former CVA employees and sent to the organization’s senior management in February 2015. Among the most damning allegations, Hegseth was so intoxicated he had to be physically stopped from joining dancers on the stage of a Louisiana strip club, where he had brought his team in November 2014. Two people who told The New Yorker they had contributed to the report said they had seen Hegseth drunk numerous times and on multiple occasions dragged away or carried from one location to another because he was so intoxicated. “To have him at the Pentagon would be scary,” one person said. In one complaint in the report, describing a CVA event in Virginia Beach on Memorial Day weekend in 2014, Hegseth was seen as “totally sloshed” and had to be carried to his room because “he was so intoxicated.” The next month at an event in Cleveland, Hegseth went with his team to a bar near their hotel and got “completely drunk in a public place,” with “several high profile people” who were in attendance “very disappointed to see this kind of public behavior,” according to the report. The report also says that Hegseth — at the time married to his second wife — along with other members of his management team sexually pursued the CVA’s female staffers and created a hostile workplace that ignored serious accusations of sexual assault or harassment. And in a separate letter of complaint sent to CVA in late 2015, another former employee said a drunk Hegseth was aggressively chanting “Kill All Muslims! Kill All Muslims!” at a Cuyahoga Falls, Ohio, bar early on May 29, 2015, while on official business in the state.

"100% Bulls**t": Hegseth Hit Piece Debunked By Over A Dozen Current And Former Fox Employees -An anonymously sourced NBC News hit piece accusing Trump DoD pick Pete Hegseth of being frequently inebriated at Fox News has been refuted by over a dozen current and former Fox News personalities and guests, including his two cohosts.According to NBC, two of their anonymous sources said that "on more than a dozen occasions during Hegseth’s time as a co-host of ‘Fox & Friends Weekend,’ which began in 2017, they smelled alcohol on him before he went on air," adding "“Those same two people, plus another, said that during his time there he appeared on television after they’d heard him talk about being hungover as he was getting ready or on set."In response to the hit piece, Hegseth's co-host Will Cain - who NBC never reached out to - posted to X: "Bullshit. 100 percent bullshit. Actually…horseshit," adding in a subsequent post, "Your story is horseshit @NBCNews. Put my name on it. On the record. It’ll be your only on the record source."Signed, The guy who sat next to him for 8 hours every week for five years starting at 6am."Rachel Campos Duffy, Hegseth's other cohost, also chimed in - posting on X: "The losers at @NBCNews never reached out to me either," adding "Will Cain is right – your story IS horseshit. You now have 2 people who sat next to him 8+ hours a week on the record. Will you retract or correct your story?"Hegseth's mother appeared on Fox & Friends, saying that her son is "the most faithful patriot of this country ... he has fought and almost died for his country. He's a good dad, he's an amazing son and father — and that's the Pete I want people to know." And he says Trump told him this morning to "Keep going, keep fighting."As American Greatness notes further, Duffy’s husband, former congressman Sean Duffy (R-Wis.), is Trump’s pick for Transportation Secretary. Their daughter, Evita Duffy-Alfonzo, posted her heartfelt defense of Hegseth, along with a photo of his family on X: “I stand with Pete and his beautiful family in the face of these smears,” Alfonzo wrote. “@NBCNews did not contact my mom @RCamposDuffy or @willcain for their latest anonymously sourced hit piece because it is total bs. The state and their mouthpieces in the propaganda press hate Pete because they FEAR Pete—and that’s exactly what America needs.”Numerous Fox News employees defended the Army veteran throughout the afternoon and evening Tuesday.Leo Terrell, a civil rights attorney and Fox News contributor, described Hegseth as a “great American” on X. “No one ask me my opinion about the great @PeteHegseth aka my friend!” Terrell wrote.Fox News contributor Tomi Lahren also weighed in on X. “Add me also. Pete has always been the epitome of a class act and a great guy,” Lahren posted. “These attacks are shameful BS.”Mollie Hemingway, Federalist Editor-in-Chief and Fox News contributor, wrote on X: “I can’t stand the propaganda practice of using anonymous sources to smear political opponents, as NBC does here. FWIW, I have nothing but good things to say about Pete and the anonymously sourced stories don’t match my personal experience in any way. Quite the contrary, in fact.”Dr. Nicole Saphier, Fox’s medical news contributor, said she has regularly interacted with Hegseth on Fox and Friends and has never observed the behaviors reported by NBC.“I have routinely sat on the couch with Pete Hegseth for 8 years,” Saphier posted on X. “Not once did I suspect he had consumed anything other than an egg sandwich and coffee before going on air.”Fox News contributor Joey Jones called the allegations “Laughable.”“I don’t drink. I’m disgusted by the smell of alcohol on someone’s breath,” Jones wrote on X. “I’ve never EVER seen Pete drink like that, and have never smelled alcohol on his breath at work. These hit pieces are getting laughable.”Town Hall columnist and Fox News contributor Guy Benson also expressed his doubts about the story: “I’ve co-hosted with Pete and have never experienced anything like what was claimed in this anonymously-sourced report,” Benson wrote on X.Lisa Boothe, another Fox News contributor who has worked closely with Hegseth, flatly stated that NBC’s allegation’s “did not happen.”“I’ve guest co-hosted with him numerous times before,” Booth wrote. “Not once did this happen. Not once have I heard this from others. This is such a disgusting and false smear. It is wrong and malicious.”Radio talk Show host and Fox News contributor Dan Bongino didn’t mince words: “Worked with Pete for years. This is absolute BULLSHIT,” he posted on X.Former Fox News producer Kyle Becker posted on X that he had worked with Hegseth “numerous times” and “never got the impression he was ever drunk.” Becker added: “No bloodshot eyes. No slurred speech. No disheveled appearance. No wobbly gait. Nothing. I’m also calling bullshit.”Another former Fox producer, Brianna Morello said “I’ve never heard this in my life.”“Everyone spoke highly of him and still does til this day,” Morello wrote on X. “I noticed the employees are anonymous.”Fox News Contributor Sarah Carter said she has known Hegseth for a long time and has never observed the behavior described in the NBC report.“I have known Pete Hegseth since we were both at The Blaze way back when and as a contributor for Fox since 2017, I have never once seen this type of reported lies or behavior.” Carter wrote on X. “He’s always been a gentleman and great guy!”Fox News producer William Case claimed to know who NBC’s anonymous sources are, and said they’re the one’s who came into work hungover.“I worked with Pete Hegseth for YEARS –on set, in the control room, in the newsroom, in taxis, on boats, on location. This is all LOLOL,” Case posted on X.The F&F staff all LOVED Pete, and women of every rank thought he was just the greatest thing (oh the stories). Also:

• 1. I know the NBC producers anonymously quoted here and they’re 100% cowards. They’re also loaded with medications and likely functioning alcohols themselves.
• 2. I have photos of F&F weekend staff coming into work hungover, on the floor, by their desks. They were too drunk to notice Pete most days.
• 3. I don’t let problematic alcoholics hold my children.

Numerous guests who have appeared on Fox News, also vouched on the record for Hegseth, including Corey de Angelis, Senior Fellow at the American Culture Project; author Carol Roth; musician Chad Prather, TPUSA founder Charlie Kirk; TPUSA contributor Graham Allen; combat veteran and author Sean Parnell; and British media personality Piers Morgan, who said, “this relentless onslaught against Pete Hegseth is getting pathetic.” Morgan added: “Done Fox and Friends many times with him and never known Pete be anything but utterly professional on camera and a nice, respectful guy off it.”

Ocasio-Cortez is first person to hit a million followers on Bluesky --Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) is the first person to hit a million followers on the social platform Bluesky, according to the platform. Other than Bluesky’s own account, Ocasio-Cortez’s follower landmark is a first for a user, the platform told The Hill on Monday. Democrats and those on the American left have migrated to Bluesky from the similar social platform X, owned by Trump supporter and tech billionaire Elon Musk, en masse in recent weeks.The New York Democrat remarked on the exodus in a Tuesday post on Bluesky, saying that those “leaving” X are doing so “because it’s not fun anymore and no one is obligated to be on a platform they don’t enjoy.”“It’s not rocket science,” she added.Twitter’s former CEO, Jack Dorsey, made Bluesky in 2019 to be “a protocol for public conversation.” The platform’s features are based off of Twitter, and they include the ability to message fellow users as well as a discover and feed tab.Bluesky CEO Jay Graber said on Nov. 19 that over the week before that, around 1 million people had made accounts each day. “We’ve been scaling up. There’s been about a million people joining a day for the past week, and we’ve just been telling people how it works, showing them how it’s different,” Graber said in a CNN interview.“A lot of people are saying they’re having a lot more fun here. They’re having an experience where they’re making friends online again and talking to people. That is just something that they haven’t experienced in a long time,” she added.

President Biden pardons his son Hunter Biden on gun and tax felonies President Joe Biden Sunday issued a full and unconditional pardon for his son Hunter—including not only the tax evasion and gun possession charges for which he has been convicted, but any offenses he may have committed over the past 10 years. The action preempts Hunter Biden’s upcoming sentencing hearings, set for later this month, in Delaware for illegally purchasing a gun when he was banned from doing so as a convicted felon (for drug possession), and in California, on nine counts of tax evasion, based on concealing income he used to fuel his drug addiction and lavish lifestyle. Biden repeatedly denied, throughout his administration, that he would ever pardon his son, claiming he stood on the principle of non-interference in the activities of the Department of Justice. These assertions were redoubled during his abortive reelection campaign, when Biden and his aides professed to be outraged over press inquiries about a potential pardon. Even after his campaign collapsed, following his obvious incapacity demonstrated during his debate with Donald Trump last June, and Biden withdrew and endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris as his replacement, he and his aides continued to deny that there was any possibility of a pardon for Hunter Biden. All this changed, of course, with the defeat of Harris November 5, the election of Trump, and the transformation of Biden into a lame duck, counting down the days before his political enemies will take over full control of the federal government: the White House, both houses of Congress and the Supreme Court. At that point, Biden moved to protect his son and, indirectly, his brother James Biden, who was Hunter’s partner in a number of shady business ventures, and himself. The blanket pardon was described by media commentators and legal experts as the most sweeping such presidential action since Gerald Ford pardoned Richard Nixon in the aftermath of the Watergate scandal, which led to Nixon’s forced resignation from the presidency and Ford’s elevation to the White House. Hunter Biden was pardoned, not only for the offenses for which he has been convicted, but for any offenses committed since January 1, 2014. This date is revealing, since only a few months later, Hunter Biden took a lucrative position on the board of directors of Burisma Corp., a Ukrainian energy company, at the time when his father, then Vice President Biden, had been given charge of US policy in Ukraine by President Barack Obama. Similarly, Gerald Ford pardoned Nixon, not only of the Watergate-related crimes for which he was about to be impeached but for any other crimes he might have committed during his presidency. This potentially included actions far more criminal and dangerous than authorizing the burglary of the headquarters of the Democratic National Committee in the Watergate complex and seeking to block the prosecution of the burglars by having the CIA intercede with the FBI and the Department of Justice. Hunter Biden is, of course, a far less consequential figure than Nixon, and his crimes hardly compare to those of an American president—including the crimes perpetrated by Joe Biden in his role as “commander-in-chief” of US imperialism. If President Biden were to be brought to justice, facilitating his son’s influence peddling by trading on the family name would be only a misdemeanor in comparison to facilitating Israeli genocide in Gaza, instigating the US-NATO war against Russia in Ukraine, or authorizing mass spying on the people of the United States and the entire world.

Joe Biden's pardon of Hunter Biden rattles the political world -- President Biden’s announcement that he had pardoned his son, Hunter Biden, rattled the political world late Sunday.The president argued in a statement Sunday that the charges brought against his son, which included three felony charges on his purchase and possession of a gun in 2018, came about due to political reasons.“No reasonable person who looks at the facts of Hunter’s cases can reach any other conclusion than Hunter was singled out only because he is my son – and that is wrong,” Biden said.Reactions from both sides of the aisle poured in in the wake of the announcement, with Republicans expressing furor over the president’s pardon of his son.President-elect Trump, in a post on his Truth Social platform, called Biden’s pardon of his son “an abuse and miscarriage of justice” Sunday.“Does the Pardon given by Joe to Hunter include the J-6 Hostages, who have now been imprisoned for years? Such an abuse and miscarriage of Justice!” the president-elect said, referring to rioters who have been accused of storming the U.S. Capitol during the Jan. 6, 2021 attack.Rep. James Comer (R-Ky.), said in a statement posted to the social platform X on Sunday that the president “has lied from start to finish about his family’s corrupt influence peddling activities.”“Not only has he falsely claimed that he never met with his son’s foreign business associates and that his son did nothing wrong, but he also lied when he said he would not pardon Hunter Biden,” omer continued.During the House GOP impeachment inquiry into the elder Biden, Comer played a central role as the chair of the House Oversight and Accountability Committee. However, the inquiry struggled to come up with solid evidence that the president’s family committed corrupt conduct and that Biden was engaged in the foreign business dealings of his son.The House Oversight Committee called the pardon part of a pattern in its own post.“From the lawfare against President Trump to now the pardoning of Hunter Biden, Joe Biden’s unprecedented abuse of power has been a stain on the honor of the U.S. presidency,” the panel’s X account posted.Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.), a member of the Oversight committee, in a post on X threw the president’s words back at him, posting a screenshot of a prior post from President Biden that said simply, “No one is above the law.” Greene added the caption: “Come to find out, Hunter is. But who is going to pardon Joe?”Biden’s post about nobody being “above the law” came on the day of Trump’s conviction in his New York hush money case in late May.The House Judiciary Committee, which has also investigated the Biden family, cited the president’s and White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre’s insistence that Hunter Bidenwouldn’t be pardoned, and said in a post, “You’ve been lied to over and over again.”Rep. Jim Jordan (R-Ohio), chair of the House Judiciary Committee, suggested the pardon only proved a need for his panel’s impeachment investigation of President Biden.“Democrats said there was nothing to our impeachment inquiry. If that’s the case, why did Joe Biden just issue Hunter Biden a pardon for the very things we were inquiring about?” Jordan posted.

Democrats slam Biden's pardon of Hunter Biden - President Biden’s decision to pardon his son Hunter Biden is further bruising a party that was already reeling from blistering electoral losses, with a wave of Capitol Hill Democrats criticizing the move as counterproductive to their party’s efforts toward rebuilding public trust in American institutions scorned by President-elect Trump.While some Democrats extended a measure of sympathy, President Biden took heat on several fronts, with most who have spoken out indicating the move did more harm than good.“President Biden’s pardon of his son Hunter is, as the action of a loving father, understandable — but as the action of our nation’s Chief Executive, unwise,” Sen. Peter Welch (D-Vt.) said on the social platform X.Sen. Gary Peters (D-Mich.) posted that the pardon “was wrong,” while Sen. Michael Bennet (D-Colo.) said it puts “personal interest ahead of duty and further erodes Americans’ faith that the justice system is fair and equal for all.”The president announced a “full and unconditional pardon” for his son on Sunday night, sending shock waves throughout Washington. It marked a major reversal for the White House, which for months insisted the president would not pardon Hunter Biden or commute his sentence.The president argued the charges brought against the younger Biden were motivated by politics and the years-long scrutiny of him from Trump and other Republicans — complete with a winding impeachment probe and other lines of inquiry fueled by now-discredited informants. Hunter Biden’s legal team, similarly, argued in a lengthy 52-page white paper released over the weekend that he faced tax and gun charges “that no one without the name ‘Biden’ would have faced.” He was set to be sentenced later this month on both charges of failing to pay taxes and lying on gun forms.But a number of Democrats saw President Biden’s sweeping clemency for his son — clearing him of any federal crimes committed during an 11-year period — as fueling the kind of arguments of a rigged and unfair system that are pushed by Trump.“As a father, I get it. But as someone who wants people to believe in public service again, it’s a setback,” Rep. Greg Landsman (D-Ohio) wrote on X.Even Democrats who say the GOP attention on Hunter Biden has been too intense are balking at the president’s move. The Republican-led panel leaders had deeply probed the Biden family’s foreign business dealings, with outsized attention placed on Hunter Biden.“I can sympathize with his perspective that his son was subject to vigilante justice. I certainly witnessed that in Republican depositions of Hunter Biden and his attorney,” Rep. Gerry Connolly (D-Va.), a member of the House Oversight and Accountability Committee, said Monday on CNN.“But having said that, what other father in America has the power to pardon their son or daughter if they’re convicted of a crime?” Connolly added. “I really think we have to revisit the pardon power in the Constitution, and at the very least, I think we’ve got to circumscribe it so that you don’t get to pardon relatives, even if you believe passionately they’re innocent.”

David Weiss objects to dismissing Hunter Biden tax case after pardon -- Special counsel David Weiss rejected suggestions that he selectively prosecuted Hunter Bidenin court filings where he also objected to dismissing charges following a sweeping pardon. President Biden granted his son a “full and unconditional pardon” Sunday evening, making a stark about-face on previous vows to let his son’s convictions on federal gun and tax crimes stand. In announcing the pardon, President Biden in a statement claimed “raw politics … infected” his son’s case. “There was none and never has been any evidence of vindictive or selective prosecution in this case,” Weiss wrote in court filings. Weiss’s remarks come in response to Hunter Biden’s notification to a federal court in California of his pardon, where the younger Biden is seeking the dismissal of his tax case there. Hunter Biden made a similar request in Delaware, where he was convicted on federal gun charges over the summer.In the filing, the special counsel argued the charges should not be automatically dismissed with prejudice; instead, the court should end all proceedings and close the case by merely reflecting a pardon as the final disposition. The difference appears largely procedural.But in furthering the government’s argument, Weiss contended that the pardon does not absolve Hunter Biden of his guilt nor point to any defect in his indictment. He also noted the government has yet to see the official pardon.“If media reports are accurate, the Government does not challenge that the defendant has been the recipient of an act of mercy. But that does not mean the grand jury’s decision to charge him, based on a finding of probable cause, should be wiped away as if it never occurred,” Weiss wrote. “It also does not mean that his charges should be wiped away because the defendant falsely claimed that the charges were the result of some improper motive,” he continued. “No court has agreed with the defendant on these baseless claims, and his request to dismiss the indictment finds no support in the law or the practice of this district.”U.S. District Judge Mark Scarsi, who is overseeing Hunter Biden’s tax case in California, has not yet ruled on dismissal. U.S. District Judge Maryellen Noreika, the federal judge in Delaware overseeing Hunter Biden’s gun case, said she intends to terminate the proceedings against him once the pardon is docketed but asked Weiss to inform her whether his office objects to dismissal in that case, too.Soon after, Weiss filed a similar filing in the Delaware case opposing dismissal of the indictment.

Donald Trump team fundraising off Hunter Biden's pardon --President-elect Trump’s team has launched a new fundraising petition online in response to President Biden pardoning his son Hunter Biden. “The Biden Crime Family wants to sweep their CORRUPTION under the rug!” says a message signed by “Team Trump” on the WinRed fundraising platform. “Joe Biden weaponized the DOJ against President Trump, and now he wants to give Hunter Biden the sweet heart deal of the century…MISCARRIAGE OF JUSTICE!” “Right now we need a historic PATRIOT PUSH that says we’re not going to let them hide their CORRUPTION,” it adds, before encouraging patrons to sign a petition standing “with Trump against the Biden crime family’s corruption,” along with various options for donations. President Biden issued a “full and unconditional” pardon for Hunter Biden, 54, on Sunday. The President’s son was found guilty in June on three felony federal charges over his purchase and possession of a gun in 2018, violating the law by concealing drug use. He also pleaded guilty in September to nine federal tax charges, avoiding a trial. He was facing a sentencing hearing next week. “Do you remember when Biden said he would never pardon Hunter? That was a lie!” the Trump team said in an email promoting the new fundraising petition.The president had said he was not going to pardon his son before backtracking Sunday, with an announcement that rattled the political world and drew some Democratic disapproval.

Sen. Joe Manchin says Joe Biden should pardon Donald Trump --Sen. Joe Manchin (I-W.Va.) said Monday in an interview with CNN that President Biden should pardon President-elect Trump.“What I would have done differently, and my recommendation as a counsel woulda been, ‘Why don’t you go ahead and pardon Donald Trump, for all his charges?'” Manchin said of Biden’s pardoning of Hunter Biden when talking to CNN’s Manu Raju.Biden announced the pardon of his son late Sunday, arguing in a statement that the charges brought against his son, which included three felony charges on his purchase and possession of a gun in 2018, came about due to political reasons.“No reasonable person who looks at the facts of Hunter’s cases can reach any other conclusion than Hunter was singled out only because he is my son – and that is wrong,” Biden said.“There has been an effort to break Hunter — who has been five and a half years sober, even in the face of unrelenting attacks and selective prosecution,” he added. “In trying to break Hunter, they’ve tried to break me — and there’s no reason to believe it will stop here. Enough is enough.”Manchin said Monday that he doesn’t “know of a father that [wouldn’t have] done the same thing” when talking about Hunter Biden’s pardon.Trump reacted negatively to the pardon via a post on Truth Social on Sunday. “Does the Pardon given by Joe to Hunter include the J-6 Hostages, who have now been imprisoned for years? Such an abuse and miscarriage of Justice!” the president-elect said in the post, referring to rioters who have been accused of storming the U.S. Capitol during the Jan. 6, 2021, attack. The former president has been through his fair share of legal woes in the last few years, including two federal cases surrounding classified documents and efforts to overturn the 2020 presidential election. Special counsel Jack Smith recently moved to dismiss both federal cases, giving the reasoning behind doing so as the Department of Justice’s (DOJ) policy against prosecuting a sitting president. Trump celebrated Smith’s actions on his Truth Social platform last Monday.“These cases, like all of the other cases I have been forced to go through, are empty and lawless, and should never have been brought,” Trump said on his Truth Social platform.“Over $100 Million Dollars of Taxpayer Dollars has been wasted in the Democrat Party’s fight against their Political Opponent, ME. Nothing like this has ever happened in our Country before,” Trump added.

Concerns mount over Elon Musk’s taste for revenge -Elon Musk’s growing criticism of President-elect Trump’s opponents and industry competitors is raising concerns he may use his increasing influence to intimidate adversaries. These fears are compounded by Trump’s repeated vows for revenge against his perceived enemies, with experts warning Musk could echo and carry out the same rhetoric on his social media platform, X, in the coming months. “Musk is a good fit for Trump, because Musk clearly enjoys … vengeance and gets off on retribution,” said Matt Dallek, a political historian and professor at George Washington University.“This is partly, at least, what animates him, maybe even more so at this point than his business enterprises.”Neither X nor a spokesperson for the Trump transition team responded to The Hill’s request for comment. Concerns were amplified last week after Musk went after retired Army Lt. Col. Alexander Vindman, who became an outspoken critic of President-elect Trump after testifying in his first impeachment trial. “Vindman is on the payroll of Ukrainian oligarchs and has committed treason against the United States,” Musk wrote on X, responding to comments Vindman made in an interview about Musk’s reported conversations with Russian President Vladimir Putin. Musk said Vindman, who served as the top Ukraine expert on the National Security Council under Trump, “will pay the appropriate penalty,” to which Vindman responded, “You, Elon, appear to believe you can act with impunity and are attempting to silence your critics. I’m not intimidated.” Some Democrats rallied in defense of the combat veteran, including Vindman’s twin brother — Rep.-elect Eugene Vindman (D-Va.), who called Musk’s comments “really false and defamatory.” In another message to Musk, Sen. Tim Kaine (D-Va.) said the “Vindman family embodies patriotism and public service. You know nothing about either.” While Trump has remained mostly mum about Alexander Vindman in recent years, Musk appears to be using his immense platform, where he has more than 206 million followers, to reignite the retaliatory tone. “It’s hard to think of anyone else who has been at least in the past year or six months, more high profile, more influential in terms of their public support of Trump,” Dallek said. “Musk, the richest person in the world, has put much of his sources and his bully pulpit behind Trump.” “What does he [Musk] do with that massive platform? Well, he names government officials who he says he wants to fire,” he added. Alexander Vindman was ultimately removed from the National Security Council in 2020, two days after the Senate acquitted Trump, who called him a “Never Trumper” in 2019. The Pentagon’s Office of Inspector General later found Eugene Vindman likely faced retaliation from the then-president’s officials for his role in the impeachment. Alexander Vindman is not the first political figure to be called out by Musk and other Trump allies.Last month, Musk wrote special counsel Jack Smith’s “abuse of the justice system cannot go unpunished,” mirroring threats from Trump and some Republican lawmakers to retaliate for what they believe were politically motivated cases. Smith spearheaded the Justice Department’s election interference case and classified documents case against Trump, both of which he moved to dismiss following the president-elect’s victory last month. And shortly before the election, Musk told advisers that his political action committee, America PAC, should challenge “Soros DAs,” in reference to progressive district attorneys backed by liberal mega-donor George Soros, The Washington Post reported.In a repost of an X user listing “six Soros-backed District Attorneys facing reelection” in 2025 or 2026, Musk wrote “interesting” and tagged America PAC’s account. This included Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg (D), who criminally prosecuted the president-elect in a hush money case earlier this year. Musk has also singled out on social media federal employees who are well outside the political fray. Last month, Musk reposted a user who zeroed in on a little-known director of climate diversification at the U.S. International Development Finance Corporation and posted her name and salary. Musk’s repost, writing “So many fake jobs,” has more than 33 million views, and the named woman apparently shut down her social media accounts, CNN reported.He also singled out a senior adviser to climate at the Department of Housing and Urban Development in another repost that listed her name and title. “He has a huge platform, and anytime you do — we’ve seen what type of bluster and misinformation and just spiteful, hateful rhetoric has had on, not just our elections, but on our society as whole,” Democratic strategist Kristen Hawn told The Hill. “The impact that his words have in general, given his platform, and also given his influence within the White House,” is “certainly” enough to have ramifications, Hawn added. “Even by making a threat, even by the very act of intimidating someone like Vindman or these government officials already does a lot of damage,” Dallek added. “It already has a big impact, because those people then become targeted. They become targeted by Musk’s followers, by Trump’s, the MAGA [Make America Great Again] movement.” The impact of retaliatory rhetoric by Trump and his allies has already been seen with some of his critics, including former Rep. Liz Cheney (R-Wyo.), who said she received death threats after she broke with House Republicans and backed Trump’s impeachment. Like Trump, Musk has crossed ways with some of his competitors in the tech and space world when it comes to his own endeavors. His oft-public spats with competitors, along with his new government advisory role with Trump’s Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) panel, has some concerned he could wield his influence to unfairly suppress competition.Musk is “not some altruistic person here,” Hawn said of the millions he poured into the election. “He clearly sees the benefit of being this close, spending all this time at Mar-a-Lago.” “And being this close to the president-elect and having the responsibilities given to him by the president that could potentially impact not just government spending, but the workforce,” she continued. “That is concerning, because he has his own objectives.” Leading the DOGE panel, Musk will be responsible for making recommendations to reduce government spending and regulations in various sectors, including the agencies that have federal contracts with his companies SpaceX and Tesla, along with other leading tech agencies. Rep. Adam Smith (D-Wash.), ranking member of the House Armed Services Committee, told The Wall Street Journal he has fears over Musk’s new ties to Trump. “It just makes me nervous in general, the way I have seen Trump make decisions … and certainly Musk as well,” he told the Journal. “Musk clearly has influence now.” Musk has taken particular issue with ChatGPT maker OpenAI and its CEO, Sam Altman, whom he accused of manipulating him into supporting the artificial intelligence (AI) endeavor by convincing him it would develop safe and transparent AI. He has an ongoing lawsuit against OpenAI for allegedly abandoning its founding principles as a nonprofit to become a for-profit company. Altman said Wednesday he was “tremendously sad” over his tension with Musk and pushed back against suggestions the billionaire will use his allyship with Trump to harm OpenAI. “I believe pretty strongly that Elon will do the right thing and that it would be profoundly un-American to use political power to the degree that Elon would hurt competitors and advantage his own businesses,” he told the New York Times DealBook conference. Musk also repeatedly clashes with Jeff Bezos, the owner of Amazon and aerospace company Blue Origin, a direct competitor of SpaceX. The two went back and forth last month after Musk claimed Bezos told others to sell their Tesla and SpaceX stock under the presumption Trump would lose the election. Bezos denied the claim. Meanwhile, Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg dined with Trump last week at his Mar-a-Lago resort in what was seen by many as an attempt to court the president-elect ahead of his second term. Trump seemingly changed his view on the Facebook founder after he chose to withhold an endorsement during this year’s presidential election. For his part, Musk famously challenged Zuckerberg to a cage match last summer and shared social media jokes mocking billionaire Mark Cuban, who backed Vice President Harris in the presidential race.

Secret Service agent opens fire near home of Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen in Washington - - A U.S. Secret Service agent opened fire near the Washington, D.C., home of Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen after confronting several people who were trying to break into cars on her street early Tuesday morning, the agency said.There is no evidence that the agent, who was assigned to Yellen's protective detail, hit any of the suspects before they fled in their own vehicle, the Secret Service said.Yellen was not under threat during the incident and was not harmed, the agency said.The shooting occurred nearly 13 months after a Secret Service agent assigned to protect President Joe Biden's eldest granddaughter, Naomi Biden Neal, fired shots at several people who were breaking into an unoccupied government vehicle outside of her home in the Georgetown section of Washington, D.C.The incident Tuesday outside of Yellen's home, which is in the northwest section of Washington, occurred at about 1:30 a.m. ET, according to the Secret Service.The agent "observed a sedan with multiple occupants who were attempting to open car doors along the street," the agency said."As the sedan approached the agent, a confrontation occurred between the agent and the car's occupants, the Secret Service said. "The agent discharged their service weapon.""The suspects fled the scene in the sedan, and a lookout was issued to local law enforcement," the agency said.

UnitedHealthcare CEO gunned down on New York City street -- A law enforcement manhunt is underway in New York City for the person who shot and killed UnitedHealthcare CEO Brian Thompson on the sidewalk outside of a Manhattan hotel on Wednesday morning. The New York Police Department (NYPD) called the shooting a “premeditated, preplanned, targeted attack.” The shooter fired several shots and struck Thompson, 50, in the back and leg at around 6:45 a.m. The health insurance executive was shot as he prepared to enter the Hilton Midtown hotel for a company investor conference. Thompson was taken to Mount Sinai West Hospital and pronounced dead at 7:12 a.m. The suspect fled the scene on foot and then on an e-bicycle. He remains at large and was last seen in Central Park. Police are offering a $10,000 reward for information in the case. Nearby surveillance video released on social media shows Thompson walking south on 6th Avenue toward the entrance to the hotel as the shooter, who had been waiting for the CEO, steps onto the sidewalk from the street side. The shooter is seen raising and then firing his silencer-equipped handgun, hitting Thompson in the back. Thomson briefly turns to see who shot him as he stumbles to the ground. The shooter walks toward him and continues to fire his weapon, even though his gun apparently jammed at least three times. NYPD Chief of Detectives Joseph Kenny said the shooter arrived at the scene about five minutes before the shooting. “It appears that the gun malfunctions as he clears the jam and begins to fire again,” he said. Police recovered three live 9 mm rounds and three discharged 9 mm shell casings from the scene, Kenny said. A cellphone and an empty water bottle were also recovered along the route the suspect used to flee the scene. The NYPD subsequently released several images from other surveillance cameras in the city of an individual wearing a dark hooded jacket and a gray backpack that match the appearance of the suspect from the video of the shooting. Kenny described the suspect as a light-skinned male wearing a light brown or cream-colored jacket, a black face mask, black and white sneakers and “a very distinctive gray backpack.” Stopping short of calling the shooter a professional, investigators have noted the planned character of the attack and the fact that the suspect is “proficient in using firearms as he was able to clear the malfunctions pretty quickly.” Brian Thompson was named CEO of UnitedHealthcare, the health insurance and managed care division of UnitedHealth Group, in 2021. He joined the company in 2004 and worked in its mergers and acquisitions department. United Healthcare provides health insurance for 49 million people in the US. It is also the largest provider of Medicare Advantage plans, the privately run versions of the US government's Medicare program for people aged 65 and older. The company also sells individual insurance and administers coverage for thousands of employer insurance programs.

Horrific Video Shows Assassination Of UnitedHealthcare CEO In Midtown Manhattan X user Collin Rugg posted a horrific surveillance video of what appears to be the killing of UnitedHealthcare CEO Brian Thompson earlier today. Rugg said: "Video footage shows a man in the grey backpack pulling out a pistol with a silencer on it before opening fire. The man was seen firing multiple shots at Thompson who stumbled to the ground. According to The New York Post, theweapon jammed at one point, prompting the gunman to fix it so he could keep firing. He then fled down an alley and was last seen in Central Park."JUST IN: Video footage released of UnitedHealthcare CEO Brian Thompson being executed by a masked gunman. Video footage shows a man in the grey backpack pulling out a pistol with a silencer on it before opening fire. The man was seen firing multiple shots at Thompson who…pic.twitter.com/xLatwSwnAJ — Collin Rugg (@CollinRugg) December 4, 2024 Update (1040ET): CBS New York's Tim McNicholas posted on X a screenshot of an NYPD Crime Stoppers flyer indicating that a $10,000 reward has been offered for information leading to the suspect in the killing of UnitedHealthcare CEO Brian Thompson.Judging by the far-right image on the flyer, and as reported by other media outlets, the suspect is believed to have used a firearm with a suppressor. The Daily Mail provides an infographic of the incident area, noting that the suspect remains at large.Earlier, Mayor Eric Adams told reporters the killing appeared to be targeted: "We want to be clear to New Yorkers that this does not appear to be a random act of violence."New York's police commissioner called the killing a "brazen targeted attack." NYTimes noted:"The pages on the UnitedHealthcare and UnitedHealth Group websites with headshots and bios for company leadership were not available after the shooting on Wednesday morning. It was not immediately clear why the pages were no longer accessible."

The Memo: Killing of UnitedHealthcare CEO uncorks anger at insurance industry - The killing of UnitedHealthcare CEO Brian Thompson on a Manhattan street is the latest moment to shine a light on the tensions roiling American life. On social media in particular, some users gloated about the killing — a reaction they framed as rooted in their enmity for the health insurance industry. That, in turn, brought rebukes from others who condemned those responses as inhumane, especially in the circumstances. But in between those two poles, the furor was a reminder of two truths. First, there is a widespread perception that health insurance companies are characterized by avarice and callousness. Second, there is a danger of such simmering anger boiling over into violence, especially at a moment when society at large is in such a febrile state. For example, a national poll a year ago found that almost 1 in 4 Americans agreed with the statement that “true American patriots may have to resort to violence in order to save our country.” These cross-currents are clashing in the Thompson death amid a situation where much remains unclear. For now, the motive is unknown, as is the identity and whereabouts of the gunman. The insurance company CEO, aged 50, was fatally shot early on Wednesday morning as he arrived for the company’s investor conference in a Hilton hotel in midtown Manhattan. Security camera footage released from the scene shows a gunman, wearing a hooded jacket and a backpack, fire at Thompson from behind. The attacker was reportedly proficient enough with firearms to clear a jam in his gun before resuming shooting at the executive. The footage shows the killer appear relatively calm, not seeming to panic as Thompson crumples, and only breaking into a slight jog as he crosses the street to leave the scene. Shell casings at the scene had words written on them with marker, according to the Associated Press, said to have included “Depose,” “Deny” and “Defend.” Those terms are often used to describe the health insurance’s tactics to avoid paying out claims for medical treatment. A 2010 book critical of the industry by Jay Feinman was titled “Delay Deny Defend” and was sub-titled, “Why insurance companies don’t pay claims and what you can do about it.” In one macabre side effect of the killing, the book appears to be experiencing a minor sales surge, with different editions occupying the top four spots on Amazon’s list of “business insurance” bestsellers on Thursday evening. The killing of Thompson, whose annual compensation package exceeded $10 million, drew instant, sardonic comment from some social media users. “Thoughts and sympathy today to all of those who have lost loved ones, because they were denied insurance claims by #UnitedHealthcare,” wrote on such user. Another posted a mock logo for the company featuring crosshairs, along with the question, “Do you think I’d get sued if I made this as a shirt.” Yet another wrote, “it’s hard to find sympathy for a CEO of one of the worst health care companies in the world…They eat off your family members [sic] grave.”

The Real Villains -- Caitlin Johnstone - The CEO of health insurance giant UnitedHealthcare was gunned down by a masked assailant on Wednesday, much to the delight of Americans who’ve been suffering under their nation’s abusive healthcare system and the sociopathic profiteers who make their fortunes exploiting them through it. UnitedHealthcare has an unusually high rate of claim denials, even compared to its fellow predatory health insurance companies, and as CEO of the company Brian Thompson was personally raking in $10.2 million a year. The casings on the bullets used to murder Thompson reportedly had the words “deny”, “defend” and “depose” written on them, an apparent reference to the “delay, deny, defend” tactics notoriously used by health insurance companies to avoid payouts. According to Thompson’s wife he had been receiving threats from people because of his company’s actions, telling NBC News that the threats were from people who were angry about “Basically, I don’t know, a lack of coverage?” That’s an actual quote, by the way. The way she phrased it as a question says so much about how psychologically compartmentalized she had been from her husband’s predatory behavior. Like the wife of a mob boss who doesn’t think too hard about where all the money and gifts are coming from. The conversations this story has sparked are very interesting. I’ve seen a lot of posts online highlighting the fact that the murder victim in this case was himself a murderer, and a much more prolific one than any serial killer or mass shooter who’s ever lived. The only difference was that his style of murder was protected by the law.This really nails home the point that the legal system is not intended to protect ordinary citizens from the worst people in our society, it’s there to protect the very worst in our society from ordinary citizens. You can see this just by watching the frenetic police manhunt that’s underway for Brian Thompson’s killer while Thompson himself was walking around a free man, and an obscenely wealthy one at that, despite his having made his wealth via profits reaped from corporate policies designed to deprive sick and injured people of healthcare as frequently as possible.None of the world’s worst people are in prison. Our society is fed a steady diet of movies and shows depicting heroic protagonists fighting villains who abuse and murder people in illegal ways, when in real life the actual villains of our society murder people in ways that are completely legal. None of their abuses are against the law.Everyone’s talking about the murderous practices of US health insurance companies today, and rightly so, but we should also bring awareness to the fact that it isn’t just billionaire healthcare corporations who are killing and abusing people at mass scale for profit. Anyone who rakes in billions is building an empire on the blood, sweat and tears of ordinary people. At the very least they are leveraging unfair socioeconomic systems to extract labor from people around the world at extortionate rates, because everyone needs money and most people are born under the unfortunate circumstance of having nothing to sell but their labor. Workers are given the bare minimum slice of the corporate pie in order to maximize profits, in exactly the same way health insurance companies deny claims to maximize profits, keeping huge numbers of people toiling in crushing poverty. And poverty kills. These abuses are exponentially worse in the ways they are inflicted upon the populations of the global south.

Trump names David Sacks as AI, crypto czar - President-elect Trump said Thursday that venture capitalist David Sacks will serve as the White House artificial intelligence (AI) and cryptocurrency czar. In the newly created role, Sacks will lead the administration’s policy on AI and crypto, which will include developing a legal framework for the crypto industry, Trump said in a Truth Social post. “David will focus on making America the clear global leader in both areas,” the president-elect said. “He will safeguard Free Speech online, and steer us away from Big Tech bias and censorship.” Sacks will also lead the Presidential Council of Advisors for Science and Technology, Trump said. “David has the knowledge, business experience, intelligence, and pragmatism to MAKE AMERICA GREAT in these two critical technologies,” he added. Sacks was an early member of PayPal alongside tech mogul and key Trump ally Elon Musk. The two are part of a larger group of tech founders, including former PayPal CEO Peter Thiel and LinkedIn co-founder Reid Hoffman, often referred to as the PayPal Mafia. The new position, along with several of Trump’s recent Cabinet appointments, signal his relatively new embrace of crypto. Despite once dismissing crypto as a “scam,” Trump courted the industry during the election and declared that he would make the U.S. the “crypto capital of the planet.” Trump also announced on Thursday that former Securities and Exchanger Commissioner Paul Atkins would return to lead the agency in his administration — a move that was widely celebrated by the crypto industry. Atkins currently serves as co-chair of the Digital Chamber’s Token Alliance. He will replace outgoing SEC Chair Gary Gensler, who has been a key source of frustration for the crypto industry.

Industry leaders optimistic about AI and crypto czar David Sacks -President-elect Donald Trump has appointed venture capitalist and former PayPal Chief Operating Officer David Sacks to serve in the newly created position of "AI and crypto czar." With a business-friendly crypto and AI overseer, observers expect a softer government approach to tech projects and partnerships.

Picking Sacks as ‘AI and crypto czar’ signals Trump’s pro-industry stance -- Washington Post · President-elect Donald Trump’s decision to appoint a chief adviser on artificial intelligence and cryptocurrency presages an industry-friendly posture toward the emerging technologies.David Sacks, a prominent Silicon Valley investor with deep ties to billionaire Elon Musk, will take the newly created role of “White House AI and crypto czar,” Trump announced Thursday night.

Donald Trump Jr. joins PublicSquare board of directors -Shares of PSQ Holdings nearly quadrupled as Wall Street reacted to the fledgling payment company's appointment.

Chinese entrepreneur sued for fraud invests $30 million in Trump crypto venture - A sudden infusion of $30 million into Donald Trump's nascent cryptocurrency venture from a Chinese billionaire sued by the Securities and Exchange Commission for allegedly defrauding investors could potentially deliver an eight-figure payday to a company associated with the president-elect.The investment has sparked new concerns about Trump's ability to potentially profit from foreign investors, and his positions on cryptocurrency following a presidential campaign in which he vowed to make the United States "the crypto capital of the planet."Justin Sun -- a cryptocurrency billionaire famous in part for his purchase of a $6 million banana art piece last month -- announced his $30 million investment in the Trump-backed World Liberty Financial last week, making him the company's largest investor.The influx of cash also triggered a provision that allows an entity affiliated with Trump to receive 75% of the company's net revenue, based on the terms outlined in a recent company filing.DT Marks DEFI LLC, a company affiliated with Trump, stands to profit more than $15 million following Sun's investment, renewing concerns about the potential influence on Trump's cryptocurrency positions and the future of the SEC lawsuit against Sun and his companies for allegedly violating securities laws. Sun and his companies have denied wrongdoing."It's hard to have more influence when you're talking about money in politics than someone who just directly gave you eight figures," said Jordan Libowitz, a vice president at the progressive watchdog group Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington.The investment comes as Trump recently announced a series of pro-crypto nominees for his administration, including veteran regulator and cryptocurrency advocate Paul Atkins to lead the Securities and Exchange Commission, and Silicon Valley venture capitalist David Sachs to be White House AI and crypto czar.Trump has denied all allegations that he has profited from the presidency.

Patrick McHenry punts AI legislation to next Congress --Rep. French Hill, R-Ark. — one of the leading contenders to chair the House Financial Services Committee next year — focused on 'debanking' of crypto and other companies in his questions to the witnesses.

Bipartisan AI bills offer starting point for next Congress --The two bills would require banking agencies to study artificial intelligence and its application in the banking sector, and would codify findings from an earlier AI working group formed by the committee.

LA Times owner adding AI ‘bias meter’ to articles --Patrick Soon-Shiong, the owner of the Los Angeles Times, is sparking backlash with a decision to add a “bias meter” to articles the news organization publishes and other editorial decisions.Soon-Shiong told CNN commentator Scott Jennings on a recent podcast episode he is working behind the scenes to implement the tool, which will use artificial intelligence (AI) to gauge bias in news articles.“Somebody could understand as they read it that the source of the article has some level of bias,” Soon-Shiong said.The billionaire health care mogul sparked similar blowback among staff with a decision not to endorse a candidate in the 2024 presidential election.Soon-Shiong’s comments on the incoming “bias meter” sparked the resignation of Harry Litman, one of its longtime columnists and commentators.“I don’t want to continue to work for a paper that is appeasing Trump and facilitating his assault on democratic rule for craven reasons,” Litman wrote in an entry on Substack this week. “Given the existential stakes for our democracy that I believe Trump’s second term poses, and the evidence that Soon-Shiong is currying favor with the President-elect, they are repugnant and dangerous.”Soon-Shiong defended his decisions during his conversation with Jennings.“There has to be some level of being a trusted source,” he said. “Everybody has a right to an opinion, but it really shouldn’t be an eco chamber of opinion. We need to create some level of balance of opinion … nobody has really done that and it could be the downfall of mainstream media.”

Roger Ver Moves To Dismiss US Tax Evasion Charges As "Unconstitutional" - Roger Ver — also known as Bitcoin Jesus — urged a United States judge to dismiss a case alleging he committed tax evasion when selling millions of dollars in Bitcoin, claiming the case is unconstitutional. In a Dec. 3 filing to a California federal court, Ver argued that the Internal Revenue Service’s (IRS) exit tax for those who renounce their US citizenship with more than $2 million in assets is unconstitutional and “inscrutably vague.”“The ‘exit tax’ at issue violates both the Apportionment Clause and the Due Process Clause of the Constitution [...] the charges also rely on provisions of the U.S. tax laws that were, at all relevant times, inscrutably vague as to their application to digital assets of the kind that underlie the charges,” Ver’s lawyers argued. The IRS’ exit tax aims to ensure that US citizens pay all required taxes before renouncing their citizenship and withdrawing from the country’s tax system. Ver also claimed prosecutors had “unlawfully” interrogated one of his lawyers and ignored crucial documents, which he said showed he had no intent to file a fraudulent tax return. On April 30, the US Attorney’s Office in Los Angeles arrested Ver in Spain and charged him with tax evasion and fraud, alleging he dodged more than $48 million in taxes by failing to report capital gains on the sale of “tens of thousands” of Bitcoin for $240 million in cash.Ver claimed there were several impediments to submitting an appropriate exit tax request, including a lack of liquid markets for Bitcoin at the time. Still, the US government remained adamant that Ver filed a fraudulent and false exit tax after renouncing his US citizenship for a Japanese one in 2014.Ver has been charged with mail fraud, tax evasion and filing false tax returns. He faces a maximum sentence of 30 years in federal prison if found guilty on all counts. Ver was one of the earliest advocates of Bitcoin, buying it in droves in 2011 when it was under $1 and acting as an evangelist for digital assets. In 2017, he emerged as a major Bitcoin Cash (BCH) proponent after the Bitcoin network underwent a hard fork. Ver was later embroiled in a 2022 scandal with CoinFlex, which claimed that he owed the platform $47 million in USD Coin.In 2002 and 2003, he spent 10 months in federal prison in the US for selling explosives on eBay. The US Department of Justice did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

Bitcoin Soars Above $100,000 For The First Time - After toying with its fanatical fan base for much of the past 2 weeks, teasing a breach of the "nice round number" resistance several times only to fade right below it, moments ago bitcoin finally erupted higher with an aggressive buyer taking advantage of the illiquid Asian session and sending the world's first digital token above $100,000 for the first time ever...... rising more than 3% to $101,554 since president-elect Trump nominated a pro-crypto head of the SEC.......as the sell wall at $100,000 was promptly dismantled leading to massive levered liquidations...... and greenlighting the road to $200,000 and beyond.The crypto market has jumped by roughly $1.4 trillion since Trump’s US election victory on Nov. 5, on a platform that roundly embraces crypto and bitcoin is now larger in 'market cap' than Saudi Aramco (topping $2 trillion tonight)...Trump earlier confirmed that he had selected the crypto advocate Paul Atkins to replace outgoing SEC Chair Gary Gensler, who cracked down on digital assets at the bidding of his sith lord, Liz Warren.Speculators also digested comments from Russian President Vladimir Putin, who said at an economic forum in Moscow that nobody can prohibit the use of Bitcoin and other virtual currencies. Bitcoin on Nov. 22 was less than $300 from achieving $100,000 for the first time but fell back while teasing the crypto community. Crypto’s adherents view the six-figure number as a validation of claims that Bitcoin is a modern-day store of value and hedge for inflation risk.In addition to making new highs in USD terms, bitcoin's rally tonight took it to a new record high versus gold... Bitcoin ETFs have attracted inflows of about $32 billion this year, including over $8 billion since Trump became president. The combined trading volume for digital assets and related derivatives across centralized exchanges climbed to a record of more than $10 trillion last month, according to CCData.

$200 million Ponzi scheme nets Florida woman 20-year prison sentence - A Florida woman who pleaded guilty in a Ponzi scheme that raked in nearly $200 million was sentenced Tuesday to 20 years in prison.Johanna Garcia, 41, of Broward County, received the maximum possible sentence for one count of conspiracy to commit wire fraud and mail fraud. Twenty-eight other counts from her indictment were dismissed, according to court filings in U.S. District Court for the Southern District of Florida. Judge Jose Martinez also sentenced Garcia to three years of supervised release and a $100 special assessment, plus additional restitution that will be determined March 3, according to the case docket. Garcia controlled MJ Capital Funding, which fraudulently solicited investors to fund its purported business of providing short-term, high-cost loans called merchant cash advances, or MCAs, federal prosecutors said in a press release. She and her co-conspirators made "false statements and fraudulent representations" to investors about the nature of their investment and how the money would be used, the prosecutors said. Investors were told that their money would fund MCAs and that returns on their investment would be paid from the profits of the MCA business. Garcia and her co-conspirators falsely promised significant returns at an annual rate of 120%, according to the indictment. But her company "made few loans and failed to earn anywhere near the profits it needed to pay the investors the promised returns," prosecutors said in Tuesday's release. "As a result, Garcia paid investors by running a large Ponzi fraud scheme, paying existing investors using new investor funds while misappropriating millions of dollars for her own personal benefit." The fraudulent conspiracy, which took place between October 2020 and August 2021, netted at least $190.7 million. Of that total, investors lost nearly $90 million, prosecutors said. In 2021, investors in MJ Capital filed a lawsuit accusing Wells Fargo Bank of aiding the fraud scheme by failing to follow its own anti-money-laundering policies. The bank in March 2023 agreed to settle the suit for $26.6 million, Law360 reported. Garcia's partner, Pavel Ramon Ruiz Hernandez, was charged in August 2022 and pleaded guilty in April 2023 to one count of conspiracy to commit wire fraud. He was sentenced in September 2023 to nine years and two months in prison, plus three years of supervised release. Prosecutors said Tuesday that after MJ Capital was shut down by the FBI and the Securities and Exchange Commission, Garcia, Ruiz Hernandez and others launched a new, similar Ponzi scheme in fall 2021. Garcia led this new scheme from its start, "up until her arrest [in August 2023], and after, while in Bureau of Prisons custody," according to prosecutors.

Brooklyn artist says he lost $120,000 in a crypto scam. District attorney's office warns they're "very common." - - As the value of Bitcoin rises, the Brooklyn District Attorney's office is warning New Yorkers about cryptocurrency scams. One victim spoke exclusively with CBS News New York about his ordeal. Doug Newton just turned 86. The lifelong artist specializes in still life paintings that he sells online. Last September, he got a message on LinkedIn from someone named Ernestine Vigil about selling his work for cryptocurrency."At first, I thought, great, this is easy money. Then, it all went downhill," Newton said. The messenger said she worked for Opensea Private Mint. Newton was told his work would be converted into an NFT, or non fungible token, a digital asset that can be in the form of art. "She said it sold for $49,000," he explained. "But when I asked to get the money, she said, 'Oh, it resold for even more, but you have to pay Private Mint for internet fees and taxes,' so I started sending her money.Seven months and about $120,000 in, Newton realized he was being scammed. The money ended up being cashed out in Nigeria. Alona Katz, the unit chief for the Brooklyn DA's Virtual Currency Unit, said this kind of tactic is "very common." "You start with just a, 'You know, it's just a $5,000 tax and we need this fee,' and it's just a long term, trying to extract as much from the victim as possible," said Katz. Brooklyn District Attorney Eric Gonzalez started the Virtual Currency Unit last year, and his office reports 60% of cryto-related complaints came out of Brooklyn in 2023. "We estimate that this year alone in 2024, New Yorkers are going to lose about $40 million in cryptocurrency scams," Gonzalez said. "They're very targeted attacks." If you are approached about crypto investments by what may seem like a reputable site, Katz says to do you own research. "Go online and see if you can find the real one, and reach out to this person and say, 'Is this an employee?' Also, I always tell people, 'tell a friend,'" she said. She said there's no shame in getting a second opinion from a friend or reporting it to authorities. "We are watching, we are behind the scenes and, if we catch you, we will prosecute you to the fullest extent of the law," said Gonzalez.

Biggest Alleged Crypto Scams: US Finds Ponzi Schemes Run in Dubai Make Billions – Bloomberg - On a scorching July day in Dubai, Sam Lee was inside a climate-controlled wine bar, sipping a glass of chilled red, looking untouchable. Near the beginning of the year, US authorities announced that they’d charged Lee in absentia with conspiracy to commit securities fraud and wire fraud. They alleged that, as the co-founder of a company called HyperVerse, he’d orchestrated a cryptocurrency scam that bilked investors around the world for almost $2 billion. HyperVerse had promised returns as high as 1% a day via cutting-edge blockchain-based strategies, but according to the US Department of Justice and the Securities and Exchange Commission, it was just an old-fashioned Ponzi scheme. In a series of interviews with Bloomberg Businessweek, Lee, an Australian citizen who’s been living and working in Dubai for the past several years, denied the allegations against him and said any misuse of HyperVerse funds must have been conducted by someone else. “Startups fail,” he said at the wine bar, playfully tilting his glass. “That’s just the nature of business.” Whenever he got a tough question, he paused for a prolonged beat, sometimes cocking a dark eyebrow. US officials had said they were working with counterparts in the United Arab Emirates to hand Lee a summons, but he wasn’t concerned with the US government’s wishes: “They have no evidence, so I don’t have to do anything.”

Hawk Tuah girl: Online star faces crypto coin criticism - Haliey Welch, known mostly as the star of the viral "Hawk Tuah" meme, is facing criticism after her newly launched cryptocurrency nosedived in value. Her "Hawk" digital coin hit a $490m market cap shortly after it launched on Wednesday, before suddenly losing more than 95% of its value within hours.This has led some, including YouTube cryptocurrency investigator Coffeezilla, to accuse Ms Welch of scamming investors with a "pump and dump" - where the people behind a coin hype up its price before launch, then sell it for profit.She has denied allegations that her team sold any of the tokens they owned.The BBC has approached Ms Welch's representatives for comment."Team hasn't sold one token," she wrote in a copy and pasted post on X (formerly Twitter) on Wednesday.She added that no "KOL" (key opinion leaders) were gifted a free token. Ms Welch had previously distributed free Hawk tokens to some fans ahead of the launch across social media.Hawk launched on the Solana blockchain at around 22:00 GMT on Wednesday, and its market capitalisation soared to highs of $490m shortly after.However it fell sharply from this high to around $60m just 20 minutes later.Fans and investors have accused Ms Welch and her team of "misleading" and "betraying" them and suggested the launch had been a "rug pull" - where promoters of a cryptocurrency draw in buyers, only to stop trading activity and make off with money raised from sales.A community note on Ms Welch's X post contests her explanation, saying her team had been selling their Hawk coins since launch.Coffeezilla, real name Stephen Findeisen, also claimed that Hawk gave "insiders" an advantage."Unfortunately with situations like this, they're not targeting crypto bros, they're mostly targeting actual fans who have never been involved in the crypto space before," he said in a video viewed more than 1.4 million times.He accused Ms Welch's team of "profiting from a rug pull"."These people were unwilling to take any accountability" of the "Hawk Tuah scam", he claimed, after sharing a clip of him speaking to some of the people behind the cryptocurrency.

Hawk Tuah Girl's Meme Coin Crashes in Crypto Disaster --Since becoming a viral star this summer thanks to a street interview in which she charmingly imparted graphic sex advice, Haliey Welch, a.k.a. “Hawk Tuah Girl,” has launched a podcast and an animal charity, carving out a pleasant niche for herself as an influencer. Being more online, of course, has allowed her to sustain and profit from her fame, though it has also led to some curious endorsements — Welch regularly touts the greatness of X (formerly Twitter), its owner, Elon Musk, and Tesla‘s troubled Cybertruck, to take a handful of interrelated examples. Along the way, Welch has also found herself enmeshed in the world ofcryptocurrency and boosting bitcoin, which she has invested in. Unsurprisingly for a woman who bills herself as “Queen of Memes,” she also owns some Dogecoin, a so-called “meme coin” based on the iconic “doge” meme of a Shiba Inu. (She bought it because of Musk’s enthusiasmfor the meme and asset, which have now lent their name to hisDepartment of Government Efficiency, or DOGE, a commission he is set to run for President-elect Donald Trump.) Being a meme herself, it was perhaps inevitable that crypto entrepreneurs would see the opportunity to leverage Welch’s brand for a new coin in a similar vein. And so, on Wednesday, she and a team of advisers launched $HAWK, on the blockchain platform Solana, while promising that it was compliant with securities laws and certainly not a cash grab. One day later, there is virtually nobody in the crypto industry who believes that. With anticipation high, the value of the coin exploded by 900 percent in initial trading on Wednesday, bringing the market capitalization of $HAWK to nearly half a billion dollars. Then, just as quickly, the price collapsed by approximately 95 percent, wiping out retail investors in hours. (The market cap has since slightly recovered, reaching $28 million.) Accusations started flying, with many crypto observers alleging that $HAWK was a pump-and-dump scheme, or a rug pull — when developers build hype for a crypto project to raise money only to liquidate their position and walk away, with others left holding worthless tokens. Of particular interest as the meme coin crashed was alleged evidence of $HAWK insiders offloading their stakes for huge sums, and some buyers known as “snipers” quickly amassing a vast majority of available coins that they soon unloaded for instant profit. One crypto wallet, as the publication Cointelegraph found, was able to grab 17.5 percent of the supply and then flip it for $1.3 million within just 90 minutes. According to the blockchain data analyst Bubblemaps, 96 percent of $HAWK was concentrated in one cluster of related wallets as of Wednesday afternoon, indicating a high degree of coordination in these transactions.Welch and her team attempted some damage control on Wednesday evening in an audio event on X Spaces, but they did not manage to allay suspicions of a scam as investors began filing complaints with the Securities and Exchange Commission and at least one law firm advertised its services to those affected. Welch was mostly silent during the hourlong conversation, allowing her crypto partners at the platform overHere, which had launched $HAWK, and an individual known as “Doc Hollywood” to answer questions. Pressed on what had gone wrong, the men talked in evasive circles, insisting that the team of 18 people behind $HAWK had not sold their tokens.The discussion turned contentious when Stephen Findeisen, a YouTuber who goes by Coffeezilla and is known for his hard-nosed investigations of crypto fraud, was allowed to speak. “This is one of the most miserable, horrible launches I’ve ever seen in my life,” Findeisen said, prompting Welch to interject, seemingly unaware of his work, “OK, then why the fuck are you on?” Findeisen went on to grill Hollywood about who had received nearly $2 million from the unusually high transaction fees for $HAWK trades; Hollywood said it went to the foundation in the Cayman Islands that had developed the project but would not give any more details on the organization. He and an overHere representative vowed to produce evidence to counter allegations of improper financial activity, though, as of the following afternoon, have not. Findeisen concluded his time on the call by labeling $HAWK a “scam” outright.

Nebraska neobank envisions bridge between banking and crypto --A digital asset firm is trying to do something that has eluded others in recent years: create a regulated bridge between crypto and the traditional financial system. Telcoin is seeking to become the first chartered bank under Nebraska's Digital Asset Depository Institutions regime. Its CEO believes it can become a regulated bridge between crypto and banking.

BankThink: Letting crypto loose is a mistake banks will watch happen --President-elect Donald Trump made a bit of a gamble when he decided to throw his weight behind cryptocurrency during the 2024 election. Crypto — a marketplace/casino built around the promise of still-emergent blockchain technology — has attracted a base of users, investors and supporters whose interests are primed to embrace the kind of radical, disruptive change that Trump has envisioned for the federal government, and so it would make sense that a modest investment of supportive overture could pay off in the form of votes. President-elect Trump's embrace of cryptocurrency and decentralized finance is a political gambit that has already paid off. But greenlighting crypto's intermingling with traditional finance would create an asset bubble that would be especially painful to pop.

Banks offer scam advice in time for the holidays - Although scammers work year-round, they become most active during the holiday shopping season, and in a twist this holiday season, the FBI warned that criminals are now using artificial intelligence to facilitate financial fraud. The holiday season presents online shopping and charity scam risks, and this year presents a novel threat of AI-assisted fraud. In response, banks have stepped up their efforts to educate consumers about scam risks. Here's how banks are helping their customers avoid these schemes.

Fed's Bowman: Regulators 'have not stepped up' to stop fraud - Federal Reserve Gov. Michelle Bowman said Friday morning that regulators need to revisit some of their regulations covering check fraud, particularly as it concerns smaller banks being defrauded by checks that originate with larger institutions. Federal Reserve Gov. Michelle Bowman said Friday that regulators — chief among them the Fed itself — need to do more to combat check fraud, particularly the problem of smaller banks not being reimbursed by larger banks whose checks are altered.

CFPB places Google's payments arm under federal supervision — The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau has designated that Google's payments arm is under its formal federal supervision. The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau said that, although the Google Pay app has been discontinued, the bureau can make the determination based on past behavior, and that the tech giant could decide to reenter the person-to-person payment space. Ting Shen/Bloomberg

Insider fraud and AI threats top forecasts of 2025 cybercrime -- On Tuesday, credit bureau Experian released a report forecasting trends the company expects will unfold over the coming year based on the trends in data breaches and fraud it observed over the past year, including one prediction that fraud committed by company insiders may increase. In a report Tuesday, credit bureau Experian predicted that government identity systems could get an update in the coming year. Here's what else could happen.

FSOC flags commercial real estate, cyber and stablecoins - The Financial Stability Oversight Council on Friday highlighted the mounting distress in the commercial real estate sector as well as risks from stablecoins and third parties that work with financial institutions in its annual report. The Financial Stability Oversight Council's annual report underscores mounting challenges in commercial real estate, escalating cyber threats, and regulatory gaps in third-party services and stablecoins, urging stronger oversight and legislative action.

'Everything is on the table': TD seeks ways to steady the ship --The Toronto-based bank suspended its medium-term growth targets and announced a full-scale review of its strategies following historic anti-money-laundering failures.

Texas court halts enforcement of Corporate Transparency Act --A Texas federal judge issued a nationwide preliminary injunction Tuesday to prevent the enforcement of a landmark U.S. anti-money-laundering law, saying it exceeded Congress' constitutional authority and is thus likely unconstitutional. A federal judge in Texas has blocked the enforcement of the Corporate Transparency Act, a key U.S. anti-money-laundering law that would require companies to report ownership details by January.

Banks cautiously optimistic about Bessent pick for Treasury - The banking industry has largely applauded President Trump's nomination of Scott Bessent — a hedge fund veteran and former George Soros associate — to lead the Treasury Department, but whether he is able to wield influence in an administration with a markedly anti-establishment bent remains uncertain. Wall Street has cheered President-elect Trump's selection of Scott Bessent to lead the Treasury because of his moderating influence and expertise, but his profile as an establishment figure in an anti-establishment administration could undermine his authority.

Banks hit credit card users with higher rates in response to regulation that may never arrive --Banks that issue credit cards used by millions of consumers raised interest rates and introduced new fees over the past year in response to an impending regulation that most experts now believe will never take effect. Synchrony and Bread Financial, which specialize in issuing branded cards for companies including Verizon and JCPenney, have said that the moves were necessary after the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau announced a rule slashing what the industry can charge in late fees."They're the two banks that have been most vocal about it, because they were going to be the most impacted by it," "The consensus now, however, is that the rule isn't going to happen."The effect is that proposed regulation intended to save consumers money has instead resulted in higher costs for some.On Nov. 22, CNBC reported that rates on a wide swath of retail cards have jumped in the past year, reaching as high as 35.99%. Synchrony and Bread raised the annual percentage rates, or APRs, on their portfolios by an average of 3 to 5 percentage points, according to Sakhrani.On top of that, customers of the two banks have been given notice of new monthly fees of between $1.99 and $2.99 for receiving paper statements.Customers of Synchrony bank have received notices for new monthly fees for receiving paper statements, part of the industry’s response to a CFPB rule capping late fees. Bread, which issues cards for retailers including Big Lots and Victoria's Secret, began boosting the rate on some of its cards in late 2023 "in anticipation" of the CFPB rule, Bread CFO Perry Beberman told analysts in October."We've implemented a number of changes that are in market, including the APR increases and paper statement fees," Beberman said at the time.The CFPB says the credit card industry profits off borrowers with low credit scores by charging them onerous penalties.In March, the agency introduced a rule to cap late fees at $8 per incident, down from an average of about $32. The rule would save consumers $10 billion annually, the regulator said.But banks and their trade groups have argued that late fees are a necessary deterrent to default and that capping them at $8 per incident would shift costs to those who pay their bills on time.The U.S. Chamber of Commerce, which calls itself the world's largest trade group, sued the CFPB in March to halt the rule, arguing that the agency exceeded its authority. In May, days before the rule was set to take effect, a federal judge granted the industry's request to halt its implementation.While the rule is currently held up in courts, card users are already dealing with the higher borrowing costs and fees attributed to the regulation. The higher APRs kick in for new loans, not old debts, meaning the impact to consumers will rise in coming months as they accumulate fresh debts to fund holiday spending. Americans owe a record $1.17 trillion on their cards, 8.1% higher than a year ago, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

BlackRock expanding in private credit, buys HPS Investment Partners for $12 billion -- BlackRock said Tuesday it will acquire HPS Investment Partners for $12 billion in stock, as the world's largest asset manager looks to grow its presence in the highly popular private credit space."We have always sought to position ourselves ahead of our clients' needs. Together with the scale, capabilities, and expertise of the HPS team, BlackRock will deliver clients solutions that seamlessly blend public and private," CEO Larry Fink said in a statement.The deal, which is expected to close in mid-2025, comes during a boom for the private credit space. Comparable publicly traded companies to HPS such as Blue Owl Capital and Aresare up 54.6% and 46%, respectively, for 2024. Those gains are well ahead of BlackRock's 25.7% year-to-date gain.The transaction also creates "an integrated private credit franchise" with about $220 billion in assets, per BlackRock. HPS manages about $148 billion in assets. BlackRock oversees $11.5 trillion as of the third quarter.Sources told CNBC that HPS first sought to go public, which caught BlackRock's attention as it looks to grow its alternative assets business. BlackRock earlier this year announced it would acquire Global Infrastructure Partners and private market data provider Preqin for $12.5 billion and $3.2 billion, respectively.The deal is also expected to raise BlackRock's private market AUM and management fees by 40% and roughly 35%, respectively.

CFPB sues Comerica over abuses of federal benefits users — The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau has sued Comerica Bank for failing people receiving federal benefits through the Direct Express program, the bureau said Friday. The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau has asked a Texas court to halt Comerica Bank's practices.

CFPB lawsuit is just the latest regulatory headache for Comerica - The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau's lawsuit against Comerica Bank for allegedly mistreating recipients of federal benefits is the latest in a list of recent legal and regulatory entanglements for the Dallas-based company. The Dallas-based bank has a growing list of legal and regulatory issues — some of them connected to its role in a U.S. government benefits program, and others not.

'Everything is on the table': TD seeks ways to steady the ship --The Toronto-based bank suspended its medium-term growth targets and announced a full-scale review of its strategies following historic anti-money-laundering failures.

Consumer watchdog proposes crackdown on personal data sales --The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) on Tuesday rolled out a new proposal aimed at cracking down on data brokers selling Americans’ sensitive information. Under the proposed rule, the agency said it seeks to ensure data brokers comply with existing privacy law by treating “them as “consumer reporting agencies.” “Companies like the nationwide consumer reporting agencies (Equifax, TransUnion, and Experian) and others are data brokers that are currently covered under the [Fair Credit Reporting Act (FCRA)], the CFPB said, adding the new proposal “would address the circumstances under which data brokers and their activities” are covered by the law. In a press call discussing the proposal, CFPB Director Rohit Chopra said the pitched rule would make “it clear that many of these data brokers, like credit bureaus and background check companies, are subject to federal protections under the FCRA.” “This means they could no longer dodge their obligations and would need to follow the same consumer protections as major credit bureaus, including accuracy requirements and providing consumers with access to their own information.” CFPB said the rule would clarify what comprises a consumer report. Under the proposal, the agency said data brokers that sell information like a consumer’s credit history or income would be considered “selling a consumer report.” “Second, the rule proposes that when a data broker communicates consumer information for any reason, if a person receiving the information then uses the information for an FCRA purpose, the communication would be a consumer report,” the CFPB said. The proposed rule also seeks to limit how some personal identifiers, like a consumer’s name or Social Security number, are shared. As part of the proposal, the agency said communications from consumer reporting agencies of such information collected to prepare a consumer report “generally would be consumer reports.” “This would mean that consumer reporting agencies could only sell such information—so-called ‘credit header’ data—if the user had a permissible purpose under the FCRA,” the CFPB said, while describing certain purposes like “evaluating a consumer’s eligibility for credit, insurance” and employment. Chopra said the proposal also seeks to ensure “that lenders and other companies could still use this data to stop identity theft and fraud,” the measure “would preserve legally established pathways for law enforcement counter terrorism and counter intelligence purposes.” “The need for reform has united a remarkable coalition of voices. National security officials warn about risk to military and intelligence personnel, while veterans organizations highlight threats to service members transitioning to civilian life.”

CFPB proposal would subject data brokers to FCRA rules — The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau has proposed a new rule requiring data brokers to comply with the Fair Credit Reporting Act, part of a flurry of last-minute rulemaking at the agency before the Trump administration is sworn in next year. The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau issued a proposal to protect consumer data privacy and categorize data brokers that sell sensitive consumer data as "consumer reporting agencies" under the Fair Credit Reporting Act, a move that could garner bipartisan support.

CFPB disburses $1.8 billion to victims of credit-repair scheme -- The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau said it is distributing $1.8 billion to 4.3 million former customers of a defunct credit-repair conglomerate, the largest-ever distribution from the bureau's victim-relief fund. The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau is giving the funds to more than 4.3 million consumers harmed by a defunct credit-repair conglomerate, the largest-ever distribution from the bureau's victim-relief fund.

FHFA Announces Baseline Conforming Loan Limit Will Increase to $806,500 -- Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: FHFA Announces Baseline Conforming Loan Limit Will Increase to $806,500 - A brief excerpt: After the release of the FHFA house price index for September last week, the FHFA released the conforming loan limits for 2025. From the FHFA: FHFA Announces Conforming Loan Limit Values for 2025 The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) today announced the conforming loan limit values (CLLs) for mortgages acquired by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac (the Enterprises) in 2025. In most of the United States, the 2025 CLL value for one-unit properties will be $806,500, an increase of $39,950 (or 5.2 percent) from 2024 ...Note that there are different loan limits for various geographical areas. There are also different loan limits depending on the number of units (from 1 to 4 units). For example, next year the CLL is $806,500 for one-unit properties in low-cost areas. The four-unit limit is $1,551,250. For high-cost areas like Los Angeles County, the CLL is $1,209,750 for one-unit properties (50% higher than the baseline CLL) and the four-unit limit is $2,326,875.

MBA: Mortgage Applications Increased in Weekly Survey - From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly Survey Mortgage applications increased 2.8 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending November 29, 2024. This week’s results include an adjustment for the Thanksgiving holiday. The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 2.8 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 30 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index decreased 1 percent from the previous week and was 7 percent lower than the same week one year ago. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 6 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 30 percent compared with the previous week and was 21 percent lower than the same week one year ago. “Mortgage rates fell to their lowest level in over a month last week, with the 30-year fixed rate decreasing to 6.69 percent,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Vice President and Deputy Chief Economist. “The recent strength in purchase activity continues, supported by lower rates and higher inventory levels, which are giving prospective buyers more options compared to earlier in the year. The purchase index increased for the fourth straight week to its highest level since January 2024. Conventional refinance applications declined despite the lower rates, but FHA and VA refinances rebounded from a week ago. ... The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($766,550 or less) decreased to 6.69 percent from 6.86 percent, with points decreasing to 0.67 from 0.70 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans. The effective rate decreased from last week. The first graph shows the MBA mortgage purchase index. According to the MBA, purchase activity is down 21% year-over-year unadjusted (due to timing of Thanksgiving - this was up sharply last week). Purchase application activity is up about 29% from the lows in late October 2023 and is now above the lowest levels during the housing bust. The second graph shows the refinance index since 1990.With higher mortgage rates, the refinance index increased as mortgage rates declined in September but has decreased as rates moved back up.

Freddie Mac House Price Index Increased in October; Up 3.7% Year-over-year -- Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Freddie Mac House Price Index Increased in October; Up 3.7% Year-over-year A brief excerpt: Freddie Mac reported that its “National” Home Price Index (FMHPI) increased 0.45% month-over-month on a seasonally adjusted (SA) basis in October. On a year-over-year basis, the National FMHPI was up 3.7% in October, down from up 3.8% YoY in September. The YoY increase peaked at 19.0% in July 2021, and for this cycle, bottomed at up 0.9% YoY in May 2023. ... For cities (Core-based Statistical Areas, CBSA), here are the 35 cities with the largest declines from the peak, seasonally adjusted. Austin continues to be the worst performing city. However, 18 of the 35 cities with the largest declines are in Florida!And 5 of the 35 cities on the list are in Texas.

CoreLogic: US Home Prices Increased 3.4% Year-over-year in October -The CoreLogic HPI is a three-month weighted average and is not seasonally adjusted (NSA).
From CoreLogic: CoreLogic: Annual Home Price Growth Stalls in October
• On an annual basis, home prices rose by 3.4% in October and are projected to slow to 2.4% by the same time next year. On a monthly basis, home prices rose just 0.02% from September.
• Chicago beat Miami as the metro with the highest home price gain at 6.4%, compared with Miami’s 6.2%.
• New Jersey outpaced Rhode Island for annual home price growth, recording an 8.1% lift compared with Rhode Island’s 7.5% uptick. Both states reached new highs in October.
U.S. home price growth remained almost unchanged in October from the previous month, recording 3.4% year-over year-growth and a 0.02% increase from September. The stagnation highlights the fact that home price growth has remained relatively flat since this summer, only eking out gains in certain pockets of the country. “Similar to much of the housing market activity, home prices continued to mostly move sideways in October,” said CoreLogic Chief Economist Dr. Selma Hepp. “A slight home price bump after a late summer decline reflects the rebound in home buying demand resulting from a short but effective decline in mortgage rates in August. Still, as we continue to bump along during this slower time of the year for the housing market, home prices are not expected to reveal much about what’s ahead for the spring home buying market. In the last few years though, springtime has seen home prices jump higher than before the pandemic despite elevated mortgage rates.” This was the same YoY increase as reported for September. This map is from the report. Nationally, home prices increased by 3.4% year over year in October. The state of Hawaii was the only state to post an annual home price decline. The states with the highest increases year over year were New Jersey (up by 8.1%) and Rhode Island (up by 7.5%).

Inflation Adjusted House Prices 1.4% Below 2022 Peak; Price-to-rent index is 8.1% below 2022 peak - Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Inflation Adjusted House Prices 1.4% Below 2022 Peak Excerpt: It has been over 18 years since the bubble peak. In the September Case-Shiller house price index released last week, the seasonally adjusted National Index (SA), was reported as being 75% above the bubble peak in 2006. However, in real terms, the National index (SA) is about 11% above the bubble peak (and historically there has been an upward slope to real house prices). The composite 20, in real terms, is 3% above the bubble peak. People usually graph nominal house prices, but it is also important to look at prices in real terms. As an example, if a house price was $300,000 in January 2010, the price would be $434,000 today adjusted for inflation (45% increase). That is why the second graph below is important - this shows "real" prices. The third graph shows the price-to-rent ratio, and the fourth graph is the affordability index. The last graph shows the 5-year real return based on the Case-Shiller National Index. ..The second graph shows the same two indexes in real terms (adjusted for inflation using CPI). In real terms (using CPI), the National index is 1.4% below the recent peak, and the Composite 20 index is 1.6% below the recent peak in 2022. The real National index increased in September, however, the Composite 20 index decreased slightly in real terms. It has now been 28 months since the real peak in house prices. Typically, after a sharp increase in prices, it takes a number of years for real prices to reach new highs (see House Prices: 7 Years in Purgatory)

Housing Dec 2nd Weekly Update: Inventory down 1.7% Week-over-week, Up 27.1% Year-over-year --Altos reports that active single-family inventory was down 1.7% week-over-week. Inventory is now 4.4% below the peak for the year (6 weeks ago). Inventory will now decline seasonally until early next year. The first graph shows the seasonal pattern for active single-family inventory since 2015 The red line is for 2024. The black line is for 2019. Inventory was up 27.1% compared to the same week in 2023 (last week it was up 27.1%), and down 17.2% compared to the same week in 2019 (last week it was down 17.5%). Back in June 2023, inventory was down almost 54% compared to 2019, so the gap to more normal inventory levels is closing!This second inventory graph is courtesy of Altos Research. As of Nov 29th, inventory was at 707 thousand (7-day average), compared to 719 thousand the prior week. Mike Simonsen discusses this data regularly on Youtube.

Realtor.com Reports Active Inventory Up 25.9% YoY --On a weekly basis, Realtor.com reports the year-over-year change in active inventory and new listings. On a monthly basis, they report total inventory. For November, Realtor.com reported inventory was up 26.2% YoY, but still down 21.5% compared to the 2017 to 2019 same month levels. Now - on a weekly basis - inventory is up 25.9% YoY. Realtor.com has monthly and weekly data on the existing home market. Here is their weekly report: Weekly Housing Trends View—Data for Week Ending Nov. 30, 2024
• Active inventory increased, with for-sale homes 25.9% above year-ago levels. For the 56th consecutive week, the number of homes for sale has increased compared with the same time last year. However, this week’s growth was smaller than last week’s, marking the ninth consecutive week of deceleration and tied for the smallest annual increase since late March. Sluggish listing activity, combined with subdued buyer demand, has contributed to this slowdown in inventory growth.
• New listings—a measure of sellers putting homes up for sale—plummeted 29% during an idle Thanksgiving week The number of newly listed homes plummeted 29% last week. While some of the drop may be due to a mortgage rate environment that remains persistently high, most of the large decrease is likely due to the Thanksgiving holiday as sellers are likely deciding to hold off listing their home until buyers are less occupied with their holiday festivities.Here is a graph of the year-over-year change in inventory according to realtor.com. Inventory was up year-over-year for the 56th consecutive week. However, inventory is still historically low.New listings remain below typical pre-pandemic levels.

Asking Rents Mostly Unchanged Year-over-year - Today, in the Real Estate Newsletter: Asking Rents Mostly Unchanged Year-over-year Brief excerpt: Another monthly update on rents. Tracking rents is important for understanding the dynamics of the housing market. Slower household formation and increased supply (more multi-family completions) has kept asking rents under pressure. ... Welcome to the December 2024 Apartment List National Rent Report. The national median rent dipped by 0.8% in November, as we get further into the slow season for the rental market. Nationwide rent fell $12 to $1,382, and we’re likely to see that number dip one more time before the year ends. ... Realtor.com: 15th Consecutive Month with Year-over-year Decline in Rents In October 2024, the U.S. median rent continued to decline year-over-year for the fifteenth month in a row, down $14 or -0.8% year-over-year for 0-2 bedroom properties across the top 50 metros, faster than the rate of -0.5% seen in September 2024.

Construction Spending Increased 0.4% in October - From the Census Bureau reported that overall construction spending increased: Construction spending during October 2024 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $2,174.0 billion, 0.4 percent above the revised September estimate of $2,164.7 billion. The October figure is 5.0 percent above the October 2023 estimate of $2,071.1 billion. Private spending increased and public spending decreased: Spending on private construction was at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $1,676.4 billion, 0.7 percent above the revised September estimate of $1,664.7 billion. ... In October, the estimated seasonally adjusted annual rate of public construction spending was $497.6 billion, 0.5 percent below the revised September estimate of $500.0 billion. This graph shows private residential and nonresidential construction spending, and public spending, since 1993. Note: nominal dollars, not inflation adjusted. Residential (red) spending is 4.7% below the peak in 2022. Non-residential (blue) spending is 0.5% below the peak in June 2024. Public construction spending is 0.5% below the peak in September 2024. The second graph shows the year-over-year change in construction spending. On a year-over-year basis, private residential construction spending is up 6.4%. Non-residential spending is up 3.5% year-over-year. Public spending is up 4.5% year-over-year.This was above consensus expectations and spending for the previous two months was revised up.

Trump voters could fuel holiday spending, while Harris supporters may pull back --CNBC analyzed shipping trends in red and blue states and spoke with shoppers in Texas, Michigan, New Jersey, New York, Connecticut, North Carolina and Virginia to better understand how the 2024 presidential election results could influence the holiday shopping season. People who voted for President-elect Donald Trump were overwhelmingly positive about the future of the economy, while supporters of Vice President Kamala Harris were more pessimistic, concerned that the incoming president's policies could make things harder on the middle class. In a world where sentiment drives purchasing decisions, these differences in opinion could shape how much people end up spending this holiday season.For example, Harris voter Amanda Davila, a 30-year-old New York City educator, told CNBC she's planning to spend less on the holidays this year and is "trying to be more cautious" about spending in the leadup to Trump taking office in January. "I'm worried about my own student loans and whether things will be taken out of forbearance, how much I'm going to be owing if the SAVE Plan [for student loan repayment] goes away and things like that," said Davila. "It's very hard being a millennial and having to worry about buying a house, affording groceries, rent, all that stuff. With our income, it's not enough for everything these days." Meanwhile, Trump voter Armando Duarte, a 62-year-old retired utility worker from Fort Lee, New Jersey, told CNBC he's feeling a lot better about the holiday shopping season since Trump won. "I'm optimistic that people are going to feel a little bit more encouraged to spend because they may feel that the economy might be on the mend and coming back," said Duarte. "I think things are going to really pick up for the better ... I think that inflation is going to come down. Jobs are good, but they're going to get a lot better, and hopefully wages are going to go up, and people are going to be able to afford to just basically live."

Trade Deficit decreased to $73.8 Billion in October - The Census Bureau and the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported:The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that the goods and services deficit was $73.8 billion in October, down $10.0 billion from $83.8 billion in September, revised. October exports were $265.7 billion, $4.3 billion less than September exports. October imports were $339.6 billion, $14.3 billion less than September imports. Exports and imports decreased in October. Exports are up 1.9% year-over-year; imports are up 4.4% year-over-year. Both imports and exports decreased sharply due to COVID-19 and then bounced back - imports and exports have generally increased recently. The second graph shows the U.S. trade deficit, with and without petroleum. The blue line is the total deficit, and the black line is the petroleum deficit, and the red line is the trade deficit ex-petroleum products. Note that net, exports of petroleum products are positive and have been increasing. The trade deficit with China increased to $28.0 billion from $25.7 billion a year ago. It is possible some importers are trying to beat potential tariffs.

Wholesale Used Car Prices Increased in November; Up 0.2% Year-over-year -From Manheim Consulting today: Wholesale Used-Vehicle Prices Increase in November Wholesale used-vehicle prices (on a mix-, mileage-, and seasonally adjusted basis) were higher in November compared to October. The Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index (MUVVI) rose to 205.4, an increase of 0.2% from a year ago. The seasonal adjustment to the index amplified the change for the month, as non-seasonally adjusted values declined slightly. The non-adjusted price in November decreased by 0.1% compared to October, moving the unadjusted average price down 1.0% year over year. This index from Manheim Consulting is based on all completed sales transactions at Manheim’s U.S. auctions. The Manheim index suggests used car prices increased in November (seasonally adjusted) and were up 0.2% year-over-year (YoY).

Vehicles Sales Increase to 16.50 million SAAR in November - Wards Auto released their estimate of light vehicle sales for November: U.S. Light-Vehicle Sales Surprise on High Side Again in November (pay site). Improved affordability, and possibly relief from the end of contentious national elections, appeared to bring more consumers into dealer showrooms in November, leading sales to post their biggest year-over-year increase in 2024. This graph shows light vehicle sales since 2006 from the BEA (blue) and Wards' estimate for November (red). Sales in November (16.50 million SAAR) were up 2.9% from October, and up 6.7% from November 2023. Sales in November were well above the consensus forecast. The second graph shows light vehicle sales since the BEA started keeping data in 1967.

Heavy Truck Sales Increased in 4% YoY in November --This graph shows heavy truck sales since 1967 using data from the BEA. The dashed line is the November 2024 seasonally adjusted annual sales rate (SAAR) of 507 thousand. Heavy truck sales really collapsed during the great recession, falling to a low of 180 thousand SAAR in May 2009. Then heavy truck sales increased to a new record high of 570 thousand SAAR in April 2019. Note: "Heavy trucks - trucks more than 14,000 pounds gross vehicle weight." Heavy truck sales declined sharply at the beginning of the pandemic, falling to a low of 288 thousand SAAR in May 2020. Heavy truck sales were at 507 thousand SAAR in November, up from a revised 463 thousand in October, and up 3.7% from 489 thousand SAAR in November 2023. Usually, heavy truck sales decline sharply prior to a recession. Sales were solid in November, and sales for October were revised up significantly.As I mentioned yesterday, light vehicle sales increased in November.The second graph shows light vehicle sales since the BEA started keeping data in 1967. Vehicle sales were at 16.50 million SAAR in November, up from 16.25 million in October, and up 6.7% from 15.46 million in November 2023.

ISM® Manufacturing index Increased to 48.4% in November The ISM manufacturing index indicated expansion. The PMI® was at 48.4% in November, up from 46.5% in October. The employment index was at 48.1%, up from 44.4% the previous month, and the new orders index was at 50.4%, up from 47.1%. From ISM: Manufacturing PMI® at 48.4% November 2024 Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business® “The Manufacturing PMI® registered 48.4 percent in November, 1.9 percentage points higher compared to the 46.5 percent recorded in October. The overall economy continued in expansion for the 55th month after one month of contraction in April 2020. (A Manufacturing PMI® above 42.5 percent, over a period of time, generally indicates an expansion of the overall economy.) The New Orders Index returned to expansion, albeit weakly, after seven months of contraction, registering 50.4 percent, 3.3 percentage points higher than the 47.1 percent recorded in October. The November reading of the Production Index (46.8 percent) is 0.6 percentage point higher than October’s figure of 46.2 percent. The Prices Index continued in expansion (or ‘increasing’) territory, registering 50.3 percent, down 4.5 percentage points compared to the reading of 54.8 percent in October. The Backlog of Orders Index registered 41.8 percent, down 0.5 percentage point compared to the 42.3 percent recorded in October. The Employment Index registered 48.1 percent, up 3.7 percentage points from October’s figure of 44.4 percent. This suggests manufacturing contracted in November. This was above the consensus forecast.

ISM manufacturing remains weak, while construction spending continues to power along -- As usual, the month’s data begins with the ISM manufacturing index, and with a one month delay, construction spending. Because manufacturing is of diminishing importance to the economy, and was in deep contraction both in 2015-16 and again in 2022 without any recession occurring, I now use an economically weighted three month average of the manufacturing and non-manufacturing indexes, with a 25% and 75% weighting, respectively, for forecasting purposes. As a refresher, any number below 50 means contraction. In November both the total index and the more leading new orders subindex improved. The former rose 1.9 to 48.4, while the latter rose 3.3 into expansion at 50.4. Including November, here are the last six months of both the headline (left column) and new orders (right) numbers:
JUN 48.5. 49.3
JUL. 46.8. 47.4
AUG 47.2. 44.6
SEP 47.2. 46.1
OCT 46.5. 47.1
NOV 48.4. 50.4
Here is what they look like graphically: The three month average for the manufacturing index is 47.4, and for the new orders component 47.9. For the past two months, the average for the non-manufacturing headline has been 55.5 and the new orders component has been 58.4. These are very strong positive numbers. For the weighted ISM infexes to signal recession, the services component would have to swan dive to about 40 in both readings. Since that isn’t going to happen, we can safely conclude that the ISM indexes forecast continued expansion for the next few months. Construction spending for October also came in generally positive. On a nominal basis, total construction spending rose 0.4% to a new record, and residential spending rose 1.5%, down -0.8% since May 2024. Only manufacturing construction bucked the trend, declining -0.1%, and is now down -0.9% from its June 2024 peak. Since the onset of the pandemic, total nominal construction spending is up 45.1%, residential up 53.7%, and manufacturing up 200.6% - this last due to incentivized re-shoring spending under the Inflation Reduction Act: Since housing is such an important leading component of the economy, here is residential construction spending as above compared with the PPI for construction materials: The prices of construction materials have been generally slowly declining for the past two years, meaning that real inflation-adjusted residential construction spending has risen to its highest level since January 2021, including a 0.4% increase in today’s reading: The bottom line is that, while manufacturing remains weak, the economy continues to be powered along by (somewhat surprising) continued strength in construction, as well as the services sector.

ISM® Services Index Decreases to 52.1% in November --The ISM® Services index was at 52.1%, down from 56.0% last month. The employment index decreased to 51.5%, from 53.0%. Note: Above 50 indicates expansion, below 50 in contraction. From the Institute for Supply Management: Services PMI® at 52.1% November 2024 Services ISM® Report On Business® The Services PMI® registered 52.1 percent, indicating expansion for the 51st time in 54 months since recovery from the coronavirus pandemic-induced recession began in June 2020. “In November, the Services PMI® registered 52.1 percent, 3.9 percentage points lower than October’s figure of 56 percent. The reading in November marked the ninth time the composite index has been in expansion territory this year. The Business Activity Index registered 53.7 percent in November, 3.5 percentage points lower than the 57.2 percent recorded in October, indicating a fifth month of expansion after a contraction in June. The New Orders Index also recorded a reading of 53.7 percent in November, 3.7 percentage points lower than October’s figure of 57.4 percent. The Employment Index landed in expansion territory for the fourth time in five months; the reading of 51.5 percent is a 1.5-percentage point decrease compared to the 53 percent recorded in October. The PMI was below expectations.

BLS: Job Openings "Little Unchanged" at 7.7 million in October - From the BLS: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary the number of job openings was little changed at 7.7 million on the last business day of October, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the month, hires changed little at 5.3 million. The number of total separations was little changed at 5.3 million. Within separations, quits (3.3 million) increased, but layoffs and discharges (1.6 million) changed little. The following graph shows job openings (black line), hires (dark blue), Layoff, Discharges and other (red column), and Quits (light blue column) from the JOLTS. This series started in December 2000. Note: The difference between JOLTS hires and separations is similar to the CES (payroll survey) net jobs headline numbers. Note that hires (dark blue) and total separations (red and light blue columns stacked) are usually pretty close each month. This is a measure of labor market turnover. When the blue line is above the two stacked columns, the economy is adding net jobs - when it is below the columns, the economy is losing jobs. The spike in layoffs and discharges in March 2020 is labeled, but off the chart to better show the usual data. Jobs openings increased in October to 7.74 million from 7.37 million in September. The number of job openings (black) were down 11% year-over-year. Quits were down 8% year-over-year. These are voluntary separations. (See light blue columns at bottom of graph for trend for "quits").

Job openings jumped and hiring slumped in October, key labor report for the Fed shows -- Available jobs rose in October while hiring fell during a month in which payrolls growth hit its lowest level in nearly four years, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Tuesday.Job openings totaled 7.74 million on the month, up 372,000 from September and more than the Dow Jones estimate for 7.5 million, the BLS said in its Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey. The rate of openings as a share of the labor force rose to 4.6% from 4.4%.That brought the ratio of available positions to unemployed workers up to 1.1, about half of where it was during the peak of a massive gap between supply and demand in 2022.Hiring also tailed off at a time when the labor market was disrupted by violent storms in the Southeast as well as two major labor strikes involving dockworkers and Boeing. Hires totaled 5.31 million, down 269,000 on the month, lowering the hiring rate to 3.3%. That's also a decline of 0.2 percentage point.Layoffs, though, fell to 1.63 million, a decrease of 169,000 from September. Also, voluntary job quitters increased to 3.33 million, up 228,000 from September.The data comes for a month in which the BLS reported nonfarm payroll growth of just 12,000, the worst month since December 2020.The Federal Reserve watches the JOLTS report closely for signs of tightness or slack in the labor market. Markets expect the Fed to lower its benchmark borrowing rate by a quarter percentage point when it meets later this month, in part an effort to head off any potential weakness in the labor market.

ADP: Private Employment Increased 146,000 in November -- From ADP: ADP National Employment Report: Private Sector Employment Increased by 146,000 Jobs in November; Annual Pay was Up 4.8% Private sector employment increased by 146,000 jobs in November and annual pay was up 4.8 percent year-over-year, according to the November ADP® National Employment ReportTM produced by ADP Research in collaboration with the Stanford Digital Economy Lab (“Stanford Lab”). ... “While overall growth for the month was healthy, industry performance was mixed,” said Nela Richardson, chief economist, ADP. “Manufacturing was the weakest we've seen since spring. Financial services and leisure and hospitality were also soft.” This was below the consensus forecast of 166,000. The BLS report will be released Friday, and the consensus is for 183,000 non-farm payroll jobs added in October.

November Employment Report: 227 thousand Jobs, 4.2% Unemployment Rate --From the BLS: Employment Situation Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 227,000 in November, and the unemployment rate changed little at 4.2 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment trended up in health care, leisure and hospitality, government, and social assistance. Retail trade lost jobs. ... The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for September was revised up by 32,000, from +223,000 to +255,000, and the change for October was revised up by 24,000, from +12,000 to +36,000. With these revisions, employment in September and October combined is 56,000 higher than previously reported. The first graph shows the jobs added per month since January 2021. Total payrolls increased by 227 thousand in November. Private payrolls increased by 194 thousand, and public payrolls increased 33 thousand. Payrolls for September and October were revised up 56 thousand, combined.The second graph shows the year-over-year change in total non-farm employment since 1968. In November, the year-over-year change was 2.27 million jobs. Employment was up solidly year-over-year (Although the annual benchmark revision will lower the year-over-year change). The third graph shows the employment population ratio and the participation rate. The Labor Force Participation Rate decreased to 62.5% in November, from 62.6% in October. This is the percentage of the working age population in the labor force. The Employment-Population ratio decreased to 59.8% from 60.0% in October (blue line). . The fourth graph shows the unemployment rate. The unemployment rate increased to 4.2% in November from 4.1% in October. This was above consensus expectations, and September and October payrolls were revised up by 56,000 combined. This report was boosted by the end of strikes and workers returning after the hurricanes.'

November jobs report: the expected monthly rebound masks deeper declining trends -To understand this month’s jobs report, let’s start with last month’s, where I wrote that “there were some signs of real weakness in this report that do not appear to be hurricane-related. But Hurricane Milton, as well as the strike, had an impact, so take this report with a gigantic helping of salt.” So everyone, including me, expected a big rebound this month, and we got one. As I’ll get into below, though, it is especially important to average the two months together to get a better idea of the trend. Below is my in depth synopsis.

• 227,000 jobs added. Private sector jobs increased 194,000. Government jobs increased by 33,000. the two month average was an increase of +131,500.
• The pattern of downward revisions to the last months reversed this month.. September was revised upward by +32,000, and October by +24,000, for a net increase of +56,000.
• The alternate, and more volatile measure in the household report, showed a decrease of -355,000 jobs. On a YoY basis, this series has *declined* by -725,000 jobs, which remains consistent with recession, as it has for months. This is the second time in three months this measure has shown a YoY decline.
• The U3 unemployment rate rose 0.1% to 4.2%. Since the three month average is 4.167% vs. a low of 3.7% for the three month average in the past 12 months, or an increase of over 0.4%, this means the “Sahm rule” is back in effect.
• The U6 underemployment rate also rose 0.1% to 7.8%, 1.4% above its low of December 2022.
• Further out on the spectrum, those who are not in the labor force but want a job now declined -180,000 to 5.486 million, vs. its post-pandemic low of 4.925 million in early 2023.
• the average manufacturing workweek, one of the 10 components of the Index of Leading Indicators, rose 0.1 hour to 40.7 hours. This remains down -0.8 hours from its February 2022 peak of 41.5 hours, but on the other hand is only -0.1 hour below its 18 month high.
• Manufacturing jobs rose 22,000. But this only reversed half of the -44,000 strike-related decline last month, so the two month average is negative.
• Within that sector, motor vehicle manufacturing jobs declined -400. The two month average is -3,200.
• Truck driving increased 2,900. The two month average is +950.
• Construction jobs increased another 10,000. The two month average is +9,000.
• Residential construction jobs, which are even more leading, rose by 1,400 to another new post-pandemic high.
• Goods producing jobs as a whole rose 34,000, but because they declined -42,000 last month, the two month average is -4,000. This is especially important, because these typically decline before any recession occurs. As I wrote last month, “in the absence of special factors this would be a serious red flag for oncoming recession.” Thus the net two month decline is worth at least a yellow flag.
• Temporary jobs, which have generally been declining since late 2022, rose by 16,000, although the two month average is -850. These are down over -550,000 since their peak in March 2022. This appears to be not just cyclical, but a secular change in trend.
• the number of people unemployed for 5 weeks or fewer rose 97,000 to 2,209,000. The two month average is an increase of +32,500.
• Average Hourly Earnings for Production and Nonsupervisory Personnel increased $.09, or +0.3%, to $30.57, for a YoY gain of +3.9%. Their post pandemic peak of 7.0% in March 2022. This is equal to their recent low in July. Nevertheless, and importantly, this continues to be significantly higher than the 2.6% YoY inflation rate as of last month.
• The index of aggregate hours worked for non-managerial workers rose 0.1%, vs. last month’s revised unchanged level. This measure remains up 1.4% YoY, which is higher than its trend for the past 12+ months.
• The index of aggregate payrolls for non-managerial workers was rose 0.4%, and is up 5.3% YoY. This increase may be just noise, but at least for this month it reverses the slow deceleration since the end of the pandemic lockdowns. With the latest YoY consumer inflation reading of 2.6%, this remains powerful evidence that average working families have continued to see gains in “real” spending money.
• Professional and business employment rose 26,000, but the two month average is a decline of -10,500. These tend to be well-paying jobs. Although the YoY comparison therefore improved this month, they are only higher YoY by 0.4% - a very low increase that has *only* happened in the past 80+ years immediately before, during, or after recessions.
• The employment population ratio declined another -0.2% to 59.8%, after a -0.2% decline last month, vs. 61.1% in February 2020.
• The Labor Force Participation Rate declined another -0.1% to 62.5%, after a -0.1% decline last month, vs. 63.4% in February 2020. The prime 25-54 age  participation rate declined -0.3% to 83.5%, vs. 84.0% in July, which was the highest rate during the entire history of this series except for the late 1990s tech boom.

SUMMARY: On a month over month basis, this report was very positive, as with the exception of the labor force participation rate and the employment population ratio, everything rebounded - as expected.That’s why looking at the average of the past two months is so important. And there, the news isn’t so good at all. In addition to upticks in the unemployment and underemployment rates, not only did manufacturing, motor vehicle production, professional and business jobs, and temporary help jobs decline further, but for the first time, so did goods-producing jobs as a whole. For the last four months, there has been less than a 0.1% gain, and only a 0.2% gain for the last eight months. Even since the accession of China to regular trading status, such meager gains have signaled at least weakness if not outright recession. There certainly were bright spots, as construction, including residential construction jobs, continued to plow ahead. The downturn in trucking jobs reversed. Those who want a job now but have not applied for one also decreased. And aggregate hours worked and aggregate payrolls for nonsupervisory workers both increased. This suggests that consumer spending will continue a net positive in the next few months. Last month I closed with “I would take 60% of this month’s decline as temporary, but 40% real.” This month’s report is confirmatory of that hypothesis, with the two month average gain being 131,500, and the three month average 173,000. In other words, the trend of deceleration in the jobs market is continuing without abatement. If this trend continues for another 12-15 months, it will be negative - in other words, signaling a recession.

Comments on November Employment Report – Bill McBride - The headline jobs number in the November employment report was above expectations, and September payrolls and October payrolls were revised up by 56,000 combined. The participation rate and the employment population ratio declined, and the unemployment rate increased to 4.2%.Earlier: November Employment Report: 227 thousand Jobs, 4.2% Unemployment Rate. Typically, retail companies start hiring for the holiday season in October, and really increase hiring in November. Here is a graph that shows the historical net retail jobs added for October, November and December by year. This graph really shows the collapse in retail hiring in 2008. Since then, seasonal hiring had increased back close to more normal levels. Note: I expect the long-term trend will be down with more and more internet holiday shopping. Retailers hired 281 thousand workers Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA) net in November. This was slightly lower than last year and suggests slightly less real retail sales this holiday season as last year. This was seasonally adjusted (SA) to a loss of 28.0 thousand retail jobs in November. Prime (25 to 54 Years Old) Participation Since the overall participation rate is impacted by both cyclical (recession) and demographic (aging population, younger people staying in school) reasons, here is the employment-population ratio for the key working age group: 25 to 54 years old. The 25 to 54 years old participation rate was unchanged in November at 83.5% from 83.5% in October. The 25 to 54 employment population ratio decreased to 80.4% from 80.6% the previous month. Both are near the highest level this millennium. Average Hourly Wages The graph shows the nominal year-over-year change in "Average Hourly Earnings" for all private employees from the Current Employment Statistics (CES). There was a huge increase at the beginning of the pandemic as lower paid employees were let go, and then the pandemic related spike reversed a year later. Wage growth has trended down after peaking at 5.9% YoY in March 2022 and was at 4.0% YoY in November. From the BLS report: "The number of people employed part time for economic reasons changed little at 4.5 million in November. This measure is up from 4.0 million a year earlier. These individuals would have preferred full-time employment but were working part time because their hours had been reduced or they were unable to find full-time jobs."The number of persons working part time for economic reasons decreased in November to 4.46 million from 4.56 million in October. This is above the pre-pandemic levels. These workers are included in the alternate measure of labor underutilization (U-6) that was increased to 7.8% from 7.7% in the previous month. This is down from the record high in April 2020 of 23.0% and up from the lowest level on record (seasonally adjusted) in December 2022 (6.5%). (This series started in 1994). This measure is above the 7.0% level in February 2020 (pre-pandemic). This graph shows the number of workers unemployed for 27 weeks or more. According to the BLS, there are 1.66 million workers who have been unemployed for more than 26 weeks and still want a job, up from 1.61 million the previous month. This is down from post-pandemic high of 4.174 million, and up from the recent low of 1.050 million. This is above pre-pandemic levels. Job Streak Through November 2024, the employment report indicated positive job growth for 47 consecutive months, putting the current streak in 3rd place of the longest job streaks in US history (since 1939). It appears this streak will survive the annual benchmark revision (that will revise down job growth). Summary: The headline jobs number in the November employment report was above expectations, and September and October payrolls were revised up by 56,000 combined. The participation rate and the employment population ratio declined, and the unemployment rate increased to 4.2%. This report was boosted by the end of strikes (especially Boeing) and workers returning following the hurricanes. It probably makes sense to average the last two months, or about 132 thousand per month - down from the 153 thousand hiring pace over the previous 6 months.

Supreme Court Leans Towards Upholding Tennessee Restrictions On Child Trans Treatments -- The U.S. Supreme Court on Wednesday heard oral arguments in a pivotal case challenging Tennessee's 2023 law banning gender-affirming medical treatments for transgender minors. The case, brought by the Biden administration on behalf of families of trans youth, has brought the question of transgender youth and the role of state regulation of medical procedures into sharp focus. At the heart of the case is Tennessee’s 2023 prohibition on prescribing hormone therapies - such as puberty blockers and hormone replacement therapy - to transgender individuals under 18. While the law does not extend to surgical interventions, which are rarely performed on minors, it represents a significant restriction on gender-affirming care. While the Biden administration is leading the charge, the law is being challenged by three transgender teenagers, their families, and the American Civil Liberties Union (ACLU), who argue that the legislation violates constitutional rights. Listen: Update (1420ET): After 2.5 hours of arguments, the Supreme Court on Wednesday appeared to lean towards upholding Tennessee's ban on 'gender-affirming care' for minors.During arguments, several conservative justices questioned the Biden administration's claim that there's "overwhelming" evidence supporting supposed benefits of giving children puberty blockers and hormone treatments."I wonder if you would like to stand by this statement, or if you think it would now be appropriate to modify that and withdraw the statement," said Justice Samuel Alito, who pointed to several European nations that have banned the practice.Justice Prett Kavanaugh, meanwhile, said "If it’s evolving like that and changing, and England is pulling back and Sweden is pulling back, it strikes me as a a pretty heavy yellow light, if not red light, for this court to come in, the nine of us, and constitutionalize the whole area."

Denver Public Schools closing 7 schools, reducing grades in 3 others, as deeper cuts to public education funding loomDenver Public Schools is moving forward with closing seven schools and reducing offered grades in three more despite widespread opposition from parents, students and teachers. The DPS school board voted to approve the closures on November 21 after Superintendent Alex Marrero publicly announced the district’s recommendation to close the schools. The plan was met with widespread opposition. Students at three of the targeted schools staged walkouts from their classes, and parents and teachers filled school board meetings to speak against the plan. Demands to keep the schools open were ignored by the school board, however, and they voted to approve Marerro’s plan just two weeks after its release. The vote was met with chants of “shame on you” by parents and teachers attending the vote. In total, the closures will displace 1,087 students, primarily from low income and predominately minority parts of the city, and affect about 200 teachers. In 2023, when the district closed three schools, teachers were given a guaranteed one-year position at the consolidated school. However, this time the district has only promised to extend one-year positions to teachers with tenure. Non-tenured teachers will only be offered short term guarantees if they teach special education, middle or high school level math, or if they are bilingual and work with Spanish speaking students who are learning English. All other teachers will only be offered a position if they enroll in a program to become certified in one of those select roles. Denver Classroom Teachers Association President Rob Gould told Chalkbeat that the union has attempted to negotiate a memorandum of understanding with the district about displaced teachers’ jobs, but that the district has declined. The district said that it would respond within 10 school days of the request to negotiate. The cuts in Denver are being overseen by a Democratic City administration and a Democrat-run school board and are being justified on the grounds of declining enrollment, with the district losing nearly 5,000 students over the past few years. This is partially the result of families moving out of Denver to less expensive areas. Denver has some of the highest housing and childcare costs in the country. More broadly, it is the rise of charter schools that is fueling declining enrollment. Since 2009, charter school enrollment in Colorado, promoted by both the Democratic and Republican parties, has risen from around 66,000 students to nearly 138,000 in 2023. Meanwhile, public school enrollment is the lowest in a decade, at 881,000. Justified under the guise of “school choice,” Colorado’s public schools have been systematically gutted in preference to charter schools. In districts across the US, funding cuts at the state and federal level have become a major issue as money is cut from education to pay for tax breaks to the ultra wealthy and funding for the military. A state budget stabilization factor has kept Colorado school funding below levels mandated by the state constitution for 15 years. Now that the stabilization factor has been paid off, the state government is enacting school funding reforms that will actually cut funding to many schools while slowing down any increased funding to others. The Denver Classroom Teachers Association (DCTA), which is part of the National Education Association (NEA) criticized the closures but offered no opposition. Instead, the union prostrated itself before the district, asking in a November 7 statement, only that the district “approach this situation with integrity by ensuring bias training for principals and hiring teams, so that educators from closed schools aren’t negatively viewed or labeled in the hiring process.” The DCTA limited its demands to calling for revised school funding and reduced class sizes, without opposing school closures directly. The district is also expanding its enrollment zones, which allow families to choose at which school in their zone they wish to enroll. This will likely create a wider distribution of displaced students, separating classes while making it difficult for teachers to follow their students to a new school. The new state budget will change enrollment-based funding from a formula based on a four-year moving average of enrollment to a one-year figure. This drastic change will result in schools with declining enrollment facing a faster pace of funding reduction. Additionally, the state will increase the implementation schedule from six to seven years, slowing the distribution of any increased funding. These changes will be catastrophic for schools. While the state government has boasted that it will increase school funding by $500 million over the next six years (or around $83 million a year), the Colorado Fiscal Institute estimates that the changes in enrollment calculations will reduce funding by $190 million. The state government will also allow money from the Building Excellent Schools Today (BEST) fund, paid primarily by marijuana tax revenue and used to fund infrastructure maintenance and improvements at schools, to be moved to operational school funding. Based on this change, the Democratic administration of Colorado Governor Jared Polis has proposed moving around $60 million-$80 million a year that would have been used for maintenance and construction to cover the deficit in school funding.

North Shore Massachusetts strikes end with educators’ demands unmet -- Teachers strikes in three school districts on Massachusetts’ North Shore ended last week with each of the local unions agreeing to contracts with their respective cities that addressed none of the strikers’ main concerns. Educators in the three districts had demanded substantial pay raises for teachers, a living wage for paraprofessionals and better working conditions, including longer parental leaves. On November 8, 800 educators in Beverly and 1,000 in Gloucester began their strikes, followed by 500 Marblehead teachers on November 12. Gloucester educators struck over the course of 10 school days; Marblehead educators struck for 11 school days; and Beverly educators struck for 12 school days. The latter action surpassed Newton’s 11-day walkout in January as the state’s longest teachers strike in decades. After over two weeks on strike, with state officials using anti-strike legislation to impose growing fines on the unions and the holidays approaching, educators in Gloucester, Marblehead and Beverly were pressured into voting for deals that left teachers with below-inflation pay raises and paraprofessionals with wages far below living wages. The Gloucester educators settled on Friday, November 22, and were back at work beginning Monday last week. Beverly and Marblehead educators both settled Tuesday evening, November 26, and were back to work on Wednesday. The unions in the three districts are affiliated with the Massachusetts Teachers Association (MTA) and the National Education Association (NEA). After working without a contract for months, educators voted overwhelmingly to authorize strikes in all three districts and were prepared to fight. The outcome could have been different if the state’s anti-strike campaign was answered with a full mobilization of educators throughout the state and beyond. But instead, the MTA and NEA bureaucrats did nothing to mobilize their 17,000 members in Massachusetts, let alone the more than 3 million NEA members nationwide. The American Federation of Teachers (AFT) bureaucracy did likewise even though its 10,000 members in the Boston Teachers Union are facing their own contract struggle. Under these conditions, the Gloucester Teachers Association (GTA) forced a settlement on the educators, while Beverly and Marblehead remained on strike, weakening educators in the remaining two districts. Once Gloucester caved in, union officials in Beverly and Marblehead attempted to quickly reach settlements. Despite repeatedly presenting concession-laden proposals to school authorities, union officials were unable to reach an immediate agreement by the end of Sunday, November 24, which an Essex County judge had imposed as a deadline for ending mediation in favor of a state-led “fact-finding” mission. For a time, the school district committees in both cities withdrew from negotiations, relying on the court ruling. The school committee in Beverly told educators they would face a pay loss for all missed days. The role of the local unions, the MTA and NEA Beverly union officials went so far as boasting on their Facebook page that their proposal was lower in total costs than the district’s own offer on November 24. But the school district committees rebuffed the proposals making it clear they wanted nothing less than teachers returning to the classrooms empty-handed.

Jennifer Crumbley seeks to have Oxford High School shooting conviction tossed - Jennifer Crumbley, the mother of the teen who killed four classmates at Oxford High School three years ago, wants her conviction overturned.Jennifer and her husband, James Crumbley, were both convicted of four counts of involuntary manslaughter and sentenced to 10-15 years in prison for their role in the Nov. 30, 2021 school shooting.In an appeal filed Monday, Jennifer's attorney Michael Dezsi said that her trial was "riddled with legal errors." Dezsi argued that evidence was withheld from the trial, including information that two key witnesses who worked at the school entered into cooperation agreements to testify against Jennifer. According to Dezski, these agreements were not disclosed. According to the filing, the agreements should have been shared with the jury because the employees - Nick Ejak and Shawn Hopkins - interacted with the shooter the day of the crime, and had the chance to search his backpack before the shooting, but did not."These findings merely demonstrate why Hopkins and Ejak were given Proffer Agreements in the first place, because they had obvious criminal exposure," Dezsi wrote. "To the extent that these witnesses testified so as to shift blame away from themselves and onto the parents, the jury should have been made aware of those Proffer Agreements so that they could more accurately and fully assess their credibility." In the court filing, Dezsi wrote that the prosecution argued that Jennifer did not control her minor child. However, he noted that her child was convicted and sentenced as an adult."These theories are both factually inconsistent and mutually exclusive amounting to a violation of Mrs. Crumbley’s due process rights under both federal and state law," he wrote.

Controversy over transgender woman on women's volleyball team - The San Jose State University women’s volleyball team has a transgender person on its roster. This has drawn controversy across the political spectrum, including accusations of unfair competitive advantages and safety concerns. Such concerns prompted several teams to forfeit their matches against San Jose State this season, giving them a smoother path to the Mountain West Championship game. Despite the attention this situation has drawn, this issue surfaces periodically in college sports, typically involving a transgender athlete participating on a women’s team. In 2022, University of Pennsylvania transgender swimmer Lia Thomas won the NCAA women’s 500 meter freestyle and diving championship. To put this performance into perspective, Thomas’s pedestrian performances on the men’s swimming team before switching to the women’s team suddenly became top-10 ranking performances among women swimmers. So the numbers and data do not lie. If one chooses to ignore the data, there are numerous angles from which to approach this issue, including fairness in competition and a right to participate. But the issue that should be at the top of the list in a team sport like women’s volleyball is the safety risks to women who participate.As a group, men are physically stronger than women. Their larger muscle mass, due to hormonal changes that begin at puberty, create this difference. Sports that require strength give most men an advantage over most women. That is why numerous college team sports like basketball, ice hockey, soccer, lacrosse, track and field, and tennis, to name just a few, separate men and women, or at least create separate leagues for women only.Although it is rarely stated, men’s leagues are usually open to anyone who wishes to participate. Women’s leagues, in contrast, are protected to ensure that the competition is fair and participants kept safe. If a woman wants to play on a men’s football team, she is not barred from doing so, provided she has the necessary skills and physique to compete and understands the associated risks. Even punters and kickers may be tackled by much larger players. No amount of protective padding and gear can protect a person who lacks the muscle mass and bone density that most football players possess. So no one is preventing women from trying out for a men’s sports team. The challenge is being able to compete for a roster spot. Absent exceptional skills and talent, the likelihood of such an effort being successful is exceedingly low. The same points could be made if a men’s college team were to play a boys’ high school or middle school team in a wide swath of sports. The potential for injury to the younger and physically less-developed athletes would be significant. Physical development, not gender, is the central issue.. There have been only a few dozen transgender college student-athletes over the past 15 years, out of more than half a million student-athletes who participate each year. But the issue nonetheless draws national attention when the player in question is generating new women’s records, championships, or NCAA tournament appearances.

University of Michigan will no longer require diversity statements from faculty -- The University of Michigan will no longer require diversity statements for faculty hiring, promotion or tenure, Provost Laurie McCauley announced Thursday.The decision comes after a recommendation from a faculty working group that called on the university to end the use of diversity statements, citing criticisms for “their potential to limit freedom of expression and diversity of thought on campus,” the press release reads.“Diversity, equity and inclusion are three of our core values at the university. Our collective efforts in this area have produced important strides in opening opportunities for all people,” McCauley said in the release. “As we pursue this challenging and complex work, we will continuously refine our approach.”She added that she was “grateful” for the working group’s feedback.The announcement comes days after The New York Times reported that the university has been considering a new approach to its diversity, equity and inclusion (DEI) program, bracing for President-elect Trump’s return to the White House in January.Trump has threatened multiple times to take away funding from schools if they do not align with his views on subjects such as DEI and transgender rights.The Times also reported that some of the university’s regents have signaled they are likely to seek cuts to the school’s DEI bureaucracy to offset an expansion of the school’s scholarship program for lower-income students.Other schools, such as the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) and Harvard University, have also done away with diversity statements as part of the hiring process.The news follows a Supreme Court decision last year that limited the use of race as a factor in admissions, upending decades of affirmative action programs used by U.S. institutions.

Study: White kids less likely to receive first-line antibiotics in urgent care - The odds of receiving first-line (FL) antibiotic therapy at pediatric urgent care centers (PUCs) were lower in White children and those with commercial insurance than other groups, according to a study today in Infection Control & Hospital Epidemiology.For the study, researchers with the REDUCE (Reducing Differences in Urgent Care Encounters—Antibiotic Choice) Collaborative evaluated use of guideline-recommended FL antibiotics for acute respiratory infections (ARIs) in children 6 to 18 months of age at US PUCs from April 2022 to April 2023. ARIs included viral respiratory infections, otitis media (ear infection) with effusion (OME), acute otitis media (AOM), pharyngitis, community-acquired pneumonia (CAP), and sinusitis. The aim of the study was to determine whether differences exist in antibiotic prescribing for ARIs in relation to race and ethnicity, insurance, and language. The analysis included 396,340 ARI encounters at 28 PUCs. The median age of the cohort was 51 months, and 351% of the children were White, 25% were Hispanic, 9.2% Black, and 6.4% Asian. Race and ethnicity were unknown in 20.7%. Most children (55.8%) had commercial insurance.Among all encounters, 351,930 (88.8%) received FL therapy (98% for viral respiratory infections, 85.4% for AOM, 96.0% for streptococcal pharyngitis, 83.6% for sinusitis). OME and CAP had the lowest rates of FL therapy (49.9% and 60.7%, respectively). Adjusted odds of receiving FL therapy were higher in Black (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 1.53; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.47 to 1.59), Asian (aOR 1.46; 95% CI, 1.40 to 1.53), and Hispanic children (aOR 1.37; 95% CI, 1.33 to 1.41) than in White children. Additionally, the odds of receiving FL therapy were higher in children with Medicaid/Medicare (aOR 1.21; 95% CI, 1.18 to 1.24) and self-pay (aOR 1.18; 95% CI, 1.1 to 1.27) than in commercially insured children.

Giving docs feedback reports tied to improved antibiotic prescribing in kids with pneumonia Use of clinician audit and feedback reports at two children's hospitals boosted adherence to antibiotic choice and duration recommendations for children hospitalized with community-acquired pneumonia (CAP), researchers reported yesterday in Clinical Infectious Diseases. The study, led by researchers with Children's Hospital of Philadelphia, evaluated the impact of electronically delivered audit and feedback reports on antibiotic prescribing for CAP at the hospital's two locations from December 2021 through November 2023. While electronic feedback reports have been shown to improve adherence to evidence-based recommendations for antibiotic use in outpatient settings, their use has not been well-explored in inpatient settings. The reports, which contained information on adherence to the recommended first-line antibiotic choice (ampicillin) and duration (5 days) for CAP, were distributed by email to all general pediatrics attendings, fellows, and advanced practice providers at the hospitals and reviewed in monthly meetings. The primary outcome of the study was the proportion of all CAP encounters that involved both the appropriate antibiotic choice and duration before and after the intervention. A total of 800 CAP encounters occurred during the study period (413 preintervention and 387 postintervention). Adherence to appropriate antibiotic choice and duration increased from 52% of encounters preintervention to 80% postintervention. An interrupted time series analysis demonstrated an immediate 18% increase in the proportion of CAP encounters receiving both the appropriate antibiotic choice and duration (95% confidence interval [CI], 3% to 33%), with no further change over time (-0.3% per month, 95% CI, -2% to 2%). "These findings support the use of clinician feedback reports as a stewardship tool for inpatient ASPs [antibiotic stewardship programs], an approach made more feasible through use of electronically derived measures of antibiotic appropriateness," the study authors wrote.

Cervical cancer kills thousands of women each year. Stigma and silence are impeding efforts to prevent it. – Cervical cancer is one of the most common cancers among women worldwide, killing hundreds of thousands of people every year. But the disease is shrouded in stigma and silence that could be impacting the search for a cure — and endangering patients’ lives. In the U.S. alone, about 11,500 people are diagnosed with cervical cancer and 4,000 people die from the disease each year, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). And Jennifer Young Pierce, a gynecologic oncologist at the University of South Alabama, told The Hill that more women run the risk of developing cervical cancer than those numbers let on. Most cases of cervical cancer are caused by the human papillomavirus (HPV), a sexually transmitted disease that roughly 85 percent of people contract over the course of their lives, per the CDC. About 13 million people in the U.S. are infected with HPV every year. HPV can also lead to cervical dysplasia, or abnormal cell growth on the surface of the cervix, which can turn into cancer if it’s left untreated. There are about 200,000 cases of pre-cervical cancer in the U.S. a year, meaning that one in six women in the U.S. will be diagnosed with precancerous material in their cervix at some point in their life, Pierce said. “Breast cancer is one in seven,” she said. “If you know somebody who has had breast cancer then you know somebody who’s had cervical cancer or precancer.” Pierce explained that every person who has received an abnormal pap smear result and subsequently had to have abnormal cells burned, frozen or lasered off their cervix or uterus has had a brush with cervical cancer. “We all know somebody who has literally almost died of cervical cancer, and if they lived in a developing country, would have died of cervical cancer,” she said. “It’s just that nobody’s talking about it.” If caught early, cervical cancer has a very high five-year survival rate — more than 90 percent. But that rate drops precipitously to 19 percent once the disease touches distant organs in the body, according to the American Cancer Society. Research on the disease is underfunded in the U.S. compared to other similarly deadly diseases, however.

Cutting Back Blood Pressure Drugs Doesn't Raise Heart-Related Risk, Study Finds - Blood pressure (BP) medications are some of the most overly prescribed medications.Over 70 percent of adults 60 years and older have high blood pressure, and over half of those take blood pressure medication to prevent cardiovascular events such as heart attacks and strokes. For those who don’t need blood pressure medication, taking these drugs may do more harm than good.In a new study challenging decades of medical practice, researchers have suggested that nursing home residents might safely stop or reduce their blood pressure medication use by 30 percent or more without increasing their risk of heart attack or stroke.Older adults have a higher risk of adverse drug reactions and side effects when taking multiple medications (polypharmacy), as their ability to absorb and eliminate drugs is often impaired. Taking people off these drugs can help reduce the risk of side effects like dizziness and falls and potential interactions associated with polypharmacy. Published in JAMA Network Open on Nov. 25, the study found that discontinuing nursing home residents’ BP medications or reducing their dosage by at least 30 percent did not lead to hospitalization for heart attack or stroke after two years, compared to those who continued taking their prescriptions.Researchers analyzed electronic health record data from long-term care residents aged 65 and older admitted to the U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) community living centers. These residents were taking at least one BP medication. Nearly 18 percent of the roughly 13,000 residents had their BP medications reduced in dosage or frequency for at least two weeks.Researchers monitored these residents for two years, finding no significant difference in the risk of hospitalization for heart attack or stroke between those who reduced or discontinued their BP medications and those whose prescriptions remained unchanged.

House COVID-19 panel releases final report: 3 key takeaways -The House Select Subcommittee on the Coronavirus Pandemic released its final report Monday, laying out numerous conclusions from its review of the federal pandemic response, including what the Republican-controlled panel believes to be the likely origins of the virus. The 520-page document encompassed a wide range of issues relating to the pandemic including vaccinations, public health guidance, state-level actions and use of relief funds. “Since February 2023, the Select Subcommittee sought to produce a full after-action report to provide a road map of how we, in Congress, the Executive, and the private sector may better prepare for and respond to future pandemics,” subcommittee Chair Brad Wenstrup (R-Ohio) said in a letter. “Throughout this process, the Select Subcommittee sent more than 100 investigative letters, conducted 38 transcribed interviews or depositions, held 25 hearings or meetings, and reviewed more than one million pages of documents from of custodians,” he noted. The subcommittee’s hearings were often marked by contentious back-and-forth between members and witnesses. Several interviews were held behind closed doors, including two days of interviews with Anthony Fauci, former director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, earlier this year. Wenstrup listed seven specific findings in his letter, including that the National Institutes of Health funded controversial gain-of-function research at the Wuhan Institute of Virology, Operation Warp Speed was “tremendous success” and the public school closures will have an “enduring impact” on American children. Here are three takeaways from the report:

• Lab leak theory: The report starts with the finding that the SARS-CoV-2 virus “likely emerged because of a laboratory or research related accident.” This finding was supported by remarks from people like Robert Redfield, the former director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), former Director of National IntelligenceJohn Ratcliffe and former U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson, all of whom publicly stated their support for the lab leak theory. “Based on my initial analysis of the data, I came to believe — and still believe today — that it indicates COVID-19 infections more likely were the result of an accidental lab leak than the result of a natural spillover event,” Redfield is quoted as saying. The report also found Fauci “prompted” the 2020 study titled “The proximal origin of SARS-CoV-2,” which supported the natural origins theory, to “disprove” the lab leak theory. When he testified before the committee in June, Fauci reiterated that he did not edit the study or help to “suppress” the lab leak theory. Different federal agencies have drawn different conclusions about the most likely origin of the virus, but it remains a mystery.
• Mitigation efforts” The report is critical of many of the mitigation measures that were employed early on in the pandemic. It found that masks and mask mandates were “ineffective at controlling the spread of COVID-19.” Several studies, including one published this August, have found masking in public has an effect on lowering respiratory viral transmission, though this should not be the sole measure used to mitigate spread.Further, the report concluded lockdowns caused “more harm than good” to the economy, overall health of Americans and development of children. The 6-foot social distancing guidance was also blasted as not being “supported by science.” “Even though it was CDC guidance and not a mandate, it was forcefully implemented by state and local governments and caused lots of strife amongst Americans,” the report states. However, there were some measures that the subcommittee found to have had some benefit or merit. The public-private partnerships that were made to enable widespread COVID-19 testing early on in the pandemic allowed for “readily available and accurate tests,” though COVID-19 testing was called “flawed” in the report. Travel restrictions were also cited as having saved lives.“With four years of hindsight, it is clear the international travel restrictions early in the pandemic delayed spread of the virus but did not prevent COVID-19 from entering the U.S.,” states the report.
• EcoHealth probes: The subcommittee’s report paid particular attention to the actions of EcoHealth Alliance, the nongovernmental organization that sub-awarded NIH grants to global labs including the Wuhan Institute of Virology. Echoing criticism from members of the subcommittee, the report found EcoHealth failed to carry out proper oversight of the experiments it provided funding for, facilitated gain-of-function research and misled the NIH on the details of its research projects. The NIH in turn also was found to have failed in its oversight of EcoHealth. The report found that the Justice Department had empaneled a criminal grand jury to investigate the origins of COVID-19. “EcoHealth was subject to numerous federal investigations regarding both its potential role in the COVID-19 pandemic, but also multiple accusations surrounding violated federal grant policies. The outcomes of most of these investigations are public,” it states. “However, the Select Subcommittee discovered that DOJ was also investigating the origins of COVID-19,” it continued. “The specific details of the investigation are unknown but, based on documents, it appears the DOJ’s investigation involves EcoHealth’s role in the COVID-19 pandemic.”

Lessons From The COVID Fringe -- Some of you may have already seen the report produced by the House Select Subcommittee on the Coronavirus Pandemic this week, reported on by the New York Post and multiple other outlets. It concludes that COVID-19 most likely originated from a laboratory incident at the Wuhan Institute of Virology in China. The report also criticizes the implementation of social distancing and mask mandates during the pandemic, asserting that these measures lacked a solid scientific foundation. It also highlights that Dr. Anthony Fauci, former director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, testified that social distancing guidelines "sort of just appeared" without substantial scientific backing. After reading that today, I had a flashback to just how ostracized I was during the lead-up to COVID and during COVID for exploring all sorts of “crazy” theories other than those explicitly blessed by Pfizer. As I wrote in my inaugural blog post here in 2021, even just sounding the alarm on COVID itself—before it became a mainstream media news story—got me labeled as a “conspiracy theorist” and “fearmonger.” From there, discussions about alternative treatments, the safety of brand-new mRNA vaccines, and the origins of the coronavirus all similarly landed me in the same “misinformation” crosshairs. And think about it: I didn’t even have much of a following at the time, nor was I a prominent source of alternative news. I was just an investor on Twitter, trying to have a discussion about what, precisely, the hell was going on. It floors me to look at how casually some of the conclusions we now have regarding the virus are discussed. People today go about life as though there were never any COVID restrictions, and findings we now talk about casually—like COVID coming from a lab—could have gotten you kicked off social media, de-banked, or even arrested and thrown in jail just four years ago. That is not hyperbole. That’s a man that watched the forces “in control” arrest a solitary surfer on a paddleboard out in the middle of the ocean for being outside. This was reality four years ago: Starting with a slight, limited hangout some years back, people today talk about the likelihood that the virus leaked from a lab as though they’re just twiddling their thumbs. That statement would’ve been beyond blasphemous four years ago. We’ve already seen Chris Cuomo come out and admit that ivermectin was prescribed to him for COVID. That’s another statement that would have been deemed completely blasphemous just four years ago. At least we got redemption by both Rogan and Dave Smith on the ivermectin issue. Today, people walk around unmasked, not even giving a second thought to the insane rules that were put in place during COVID. When was the last time someone asked you to keep six feet of separation? Four years ago, not doing so was blasphemous. As I’ve written many times before, these Covid wake-up calls have solidified for me that the mainstream media can never be trusted again. I don’t want to tell anyone else that this is the case for them; everyone is free to make up their own mind. But for me, I’ve seen and heard enough. Above all, however, the one lesson my COVID flashbacks today reinforced was that it takes insane courage to speak out against the powers that be when the government is at the peak of trying to tell you how to feel and what to think. As I said in a 2021 podcast with Dave Collum, the propaganda to get vaccinated in 2021 was beyond overwhelming. Remember this shit? And those are the times it takes the most courage and the biggest resolve to stand up for liberty, civil rights, and the objective truth as you see it. I didn’t have the courage to examine the other side of the coin when the Russia-Ukraine war started, but my friend George Gammon did, and I’m glad I listened to his podcast to hear about the context I was missing. I didn’t have the courage to publicly put together a comprehensive case for why COVID may have come from a lab, but Zero Hedge did, and I’m glad I got to read their analysis—which, by the way, got them kicked off Twitter at the time. The whole point of starting my blog was to examine narratives on the “fringe” and do my best to arrive at objective truths. I came to this method of thinking because it coincides with investing: you want to know all the facts about a company and hear the best bull and bear cases available before you make your decision. The more data you have access to, the more informed you are, and the more likely you are to make the “right” decision as you see it. The same principle applies to politics and current events. Reading that COVID-19 report today was a reminder—not only to pay closer attention to those loud objectors the next time I’m having a narrative mercilessly stuffed down my throat—but also to try and have a modicum more courage than I’ve had in years past to find my own voice and courage to speak up when something doesn’t make sense to me.

Psilocybin can lift depression in clinicians who worked on COVID-19 frontlines, trial finds -- A small double-blind randomized clinical trial of US frontline healthcare workers with COVID-19 pandemic–related depression finds that the psychedelic drug psilocybin can relieve feelings of despair and burnout.For the study, published yesterday in JAMA Network Open, a University of Washington (UW)-led research team randomly assigned 30 physicians, advanced-practice practitioners, and nurses to receive either 25 milligrams (mg) of psilocybin or 100 mg of niacin placebo from February to December 2022. The participants had provided frontline patient care for more than 1 month in 2020 and/or 2021 and had no history of mental illness but did have moderate or severe depression at enrollment. The clinicians were chosen via lottery from 2,200 applicants nationwide. The intervention consisted of two preparation visits, one medication session, and three integration visits.Participants were administered the Montgomery-Asberg Depression Rating Scale, the Stanford Professional Fulfillment Index, and the Posttraumatic Stress Disorder (PTSD) Checklist for the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, Fifth Edition, at baseline and 28 days after starting the psilocybin or placebo. The average improvement in depression scores was −21.33 in the psilocybin arm, compared with −9.33 in the niacin arm (difference, −12.00). Improvement was sustained through 6 months. PTSD score changes didn't reach statistical significance.

Air pollution may boost risk of longer-term long-COVID symptoms, research suggests Exposure to small- or fine-particle air pollution may predispose COVID-19 survivors to a longer duration of persistent symptoms by increasing the severity of the infection, among other contributing factors, finds a study led by the Barcelona Institute for Global Health (ISGlobal).The researchers followed 2,853 adult COVID-19 survivors and healthy controls aged 40 to 65 years in the Catalonia region of northeastern Spain who completed three online questionnaires in 2020, 2021, and 2023 on COVID-19 infections, vaccination status, health status, and sociodemographic factors. The team also estimated participants' exposure to nighttime traffic noise, particulate matter, ozone, nitrogen dioxide, green spaces, and artificial light at night.The findings were published last week in Environmental Health Perspectives.Roughly 1 in 4 (24.5%) COVID-19 patients reported persistent symptoms lasting at least 3 months, and 5% had symptoms for 2 years or longer. Risk factors were female sex (27.6% vs 19.4% in men), lower educational attainment (29.2% vs 22.2% of those with a university education), underlying medical conditions (33.3% vs 19.7% of those without them), and severe COVID-19 infection (71.8% vs 25.1% of those with mild or moderate cases). Vaccination conferred a protective effect, with 15.4% of vaccinees developing long COVID, compared with 46.0% of the unvaccinated. Exposure to airborne particulate matter of no more than 10 or 2.5 microns in diameter was tied to a modestly increased risk of long COVID among participants who reported having long COVID in 2021 and still had symptoms the week before the 2023 survey. Unlike air pollution, factors such as nearby green spaces or traffic noise seemed to have little effect."We previously found that air pollution exposure is linked to a higher risk of severe COVID-19 and a lower vaccine response, but there are very few studies on long-COVID and the environment,” senior author Manolis Kogevinas, MD, PhD, of ISGlobal, said in an institute news release.While air pollution may not directly cause long COVID, it could make the infection more severe, which raises the risk of lingering symptoms. "This hypothesis is supported by the association between particulate matter and the most severe and persistent cases of long-COVID, but not with all cases of long-COVID,” first author Apolline Saucy, PhD, of ISGlobal, said in the release.The researchers called for future research on long-COVID subtypes and symptoms.

Almost a third of preteens, teens with long COVID still not recovered at 2 years, study shows --A new study from UK investigators shows that—while most COVID-19 patients ages 11 to 17 who reported long-COVID symptoms 3 months after the initial infection no longer experienced lingering symptoms at 2 years—29% still did.The findings, published in the journal Communications Medicine, come from the National Long COVID in Children and Young People cohort study, which followed up on thousands of young people after their COVID-19 diagnoses. In total, 12,632 participants were included in the study. Participants who were aged 11 to 17 years between September 2020 and March 2021 were asked about their health 3, 6, 12, and 24 months after taking a polymerase chain reaction (PCR) test for COVID.Among the participants, 943 had tested positive when first approached and completed surveys through 24 months. At 3 months, 233 met the research definition of long COVID. After 6 months, 135 continued to meet the definition, and by 12 months that number dropped to 94 participants.Two years after initial infection, 68 of 943 participants (7.2%) still met the criteria for long COVID. That means 165 of the 233 young people (70.8%) who had long COVID 3 months after infection and provided information at every time point in the research had recovered. But 68 of the 233 (29.2%) did not."Our findings show that for teenagers who fulfilled our research definition of long Covid three months after a positive test for the Covid virus, the majority have recovered after two years," said study author, Sir Terence Stephenson, PhD in a press release from University College London. "This is good news but we intend to do further research to try to better understand why 68 teenagers had not recovered.” Among all teens included in the study, those who reported COVID reinfections during the study period had the most symptoms through 24 months.The most common symptoms reported were tiredness, trouble sleeping, shortness of breath, and headache. Symptom prevalence was generally higher in those with recurrent SARS-CoV-2 infection compared to those who never tested positive for the virus, the authors said.Overall, 20% to 25% of all infection status groups reported three or more symptoms 24 months post-testing, with 10% to 25% experiencing five or more symptoms. Not all who reported symptoms, however, met the formal criteria for long COVID. In fact, five or more symptoms were reported by 14.2% of those who never tested positive for SARS-CoV-2, and by 20.8% of those with at least two infections.Older teens and females were most likely to meet formal definitions, the authors said. "We did not find that symptoms or their impact differed by vaccination status," the authors wrote.

New data highlight the financial burden of long COVID -- In a new study in Health Services Research, US researchers from the University of Georgia report that the cost of long COVID is making it harder for people to pay their bills, buy groceries, and pay for utilities. And those in the lower-income brackets are hardest hit by the chronic condition.Related findings, meanwhile, show that the two-dose booster vaccine appears to cut the risk of long COVID by more than a third over and above the protection provided by the first three vaccine doses.The first study is based on findings from 271,076 adults who participated in the 2022 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS). In total 9,998 participants said they had long COVID. The study authors measured financial hardship caused by long COVID through three indicators: food insecurity, inability to pay bills, or the threat of losing utility services. Participants were asked to rate each indicator on a binary scale. The people in lower income groups and those without college degrees were disproportionately affected by the condition. Food insecurity was the most prevalent indicator among adults with long COVID in all income and education groups other than the top income group. Long COVID was associated with an increase in the probability of experiencing food insecurity by 2 to 10 percentage points above what it would have been without long COVID. Participants in the lowest income group also reported being at risk of losing utilities and unable to pay bills. Only the two highest-income groups did not report these economic challenges, and the authors suggested that wealthy people with long COVID had sufficient resources to mitigate the short-term impacts of long COVID and had job flexibility to work from home if needed."Lower income groups probably have less savings and less to fall back on if something happens with their job," study author Ishtiaque Fazlul, PhD, said in a press release from the University of Georgia. "Lower socioeconomic groups also tend to have more hands-on jobs that have less opportunity to work from home. If their income decreases even by a little bit, they may cross a threshold that makes them food insecure and makes it difficult to pay bills."Currently about 17.6 million Americans are thought to have long COVID, or persistent symptoms of COVID-19 infection lasting at least 3 months past initial infection. Long COVID is a growing source of disability.In the second long-COVID study, published yesterday in Clinical Infectious Diseases, researchers found the bivalent (two-strain) COVID booster is associated with a 38% lower risk of long COVID over and above that provided by the original two-dose monovalent (single-strain) ancestral vaccine plus monovalent ancestral booster. The study was based on nearly 1 million people in Singapore.This is one of the first studies to look at associations between bivalent boosters and long COVID following Omicron-variant infection.The study compared outcomes after 1,080,348 vaccine-breakthrough infections after an ancestral mRNA booster, compared to 9,824 vaccine-breakthrough infections following a bivalent mRNA booster.Overall, those who were infected after a bivalent booster had an estimated 37.8% lower risk of developing long COVID than those who only had an original vaccination series. Moreover, there was reduced risk of thrombotic disorders (hazard ratio [HR], 0.54), episodic neurologic disorders (HR, 0.55) movement disorders (HR, 0.57), and autoimmune vasculitis (HR, 0.54) 31 to 365 days post-infection amongst who received prior bivalent boosters, versus those boosted with ancestral mRNA vaccines, the authors said.

Evidence of human-to-animal SARS-CoV-2 transmission in a Brazilian zoo --Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais-led research at the Belo Horizonte Zoo in Minas Gerais, Brazil, has detected SARS-CoV-2 in multiple captive wild mammals, revealing potential human-to-animal transmission and viral evolution in new hosts. Belo Horizonte Zoo is home to more than 3,500 animals, representing more than 235 species, with 117 mammals across 36 species. SARS-CoV-2 has not only affected humans but also raised concerns about its transmission to wild animals, potentially creating natural reservoirs. These reservoirs are concerning as they provide SARS-CoV-2 a place to potentially mutate into new variants outside of the regular monitoring scientists use to track the virus. Understanding transmission dynamics is critical for preventing future pandemics and developing better monitoring and control strategies. In the study, "SARS-CoV-2 surveillance in captive animals at the Belo Horizonte Zoo, Minas Gerais, Brazil," published in the Virology Journal, researchers analyzed the virus's evolution and zoonotic potential in a controlled zoo setting. Throat, rectal, and nasal swabs were collected from 47 captive mammals between November 2021 and March 2023. SARS-CoV-2 presence was determined using RT-PCR, and positive samples were sequenced for phylogenetic analysis. Out of the 47 animals tested, nine (19.1%) were positive for SARS-CoV-2. Positive samples included rectal, oropharyngeal, and nasal swabs, with the highest positivity in rectal samples. All positive samples were subjected to sequencing, but only three successfully sequenced the virus, including the fallow deer, the maned wolf and the western lowland gorilla. The successfully sequenced genomes revealed two variants of concern (VOC): alpha in the wolf and deer, and omicron in the gorilla. Phylogenetic analysis indicated potential human-to-animal transmission, with animal genomes clustering close to human samples from the same region. SARS-CoV-2 has previously demonstrated its ability to infect a wide range of wild and domestic mammal species. This study at the Belo Horizonte Zoo revealed significant interspecies transmission risks, with evidence of human-to-animal viral spread and the presence of distinct viral variants (VOC alpha and omicron). These findings emphasize the need for continuous genomic surveillance and integrated public health strategies that consider both human and wildlife health to prevent the emergence of new variants and future pandemics.

First mouse strain susceptible to severe COVID-19 without the need for genetic modification identified - Researchers at The Jackson Laboratory and Trudeau Institute have identified the first mouse strain that is susceptible to severe COVID-19 without the need for genetic modification. This development, reported in Scientific Reports, marks a pivotal step forward in infectious disease research, providing an essential tool to develop vaccines and therapeutics for future coronavirus variants and potential pandemics.The CAST/EiJ mouse, part of a research panel including eight genetically diverse mouse strains, stands out for its severe response to SARS-CoV-2 infection, including beta, omicron, and delta variants. While other strains either recovered or showed mild symptoms, the CAST mice displayed acute illness, highlighting their unique susceptibility to the virus. "Although most mice strains have negligible symptoms from infection with SARS-CoV-2 variants, CAST mice exhibit a lethal response, making them an invaluable resource for studying the virus's impact and testing next-generation therapies," said Nadia Rosenthal, scientific director and professor at JAX, and one of the senior authors of the study. Originally collected on the island of Castania and brought to JAX in 1971, CAST mice were bred at JAX to maintain a genetically pure line, creating a model as true to the mouse genome as possible. This characteristic makes them an ideal model for investigating severe COVID-19 symptoms on a clean genetic background.These mice not only carry high viral loads in the lungs but also display severe lung damage, mirroring the kind of hyperinflammatory response seen in human patients with severe COVID-19. This unique strain offers researchers a model that closely parallels the human response to the virus without brain infection—an issue in previous models of COVID-19. Initial trials using antiviral treatments have shown promising results, boosting survival rates in CAST mice and sparking hope for their role in developing therapies for future coronavirus outbreaks. As new variants continue to emerge, the CAST mouse model stands ready to accelerate a response, providing insights that could ultimately save lives.

US respiratory virus activity holds steady at low levels -- Acute respiratory illness levels remained low in the United States for the week ending November 23, with COVID levels remaining low and stable for most areas and flu activity continuing to rise slightly among children, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) said today in its latest weekly updates.For COVID, two early indicators—emergency department (ED) visits and wastewater detections—remained low. Wastewater SARS-CoV-2 detections are highest in the Midwest. However, tracking from WastewaterSCAN, a national wastewater monitoring system based at Stanford University in partnership with Emory University, shows SARS-CoV-2 detections at the high category, with medium concentrations and an upward trend over the past 3 weeks, with the highest levels in the Midwest. In its latest FluView update, the CDC said though activity remains low, outpatient visits for flulike illness rose a bit to 3%, as the percentage of test positivity remained stable following a slight upward trend over the past several weeks. Most flu detections involve influenza A, and, of influenza A viruses subtyped at public health laboratories, roughly half were the 2009 H1N1 strain and half were H3N2. No new pediatric flu deaths were reported in the most recent reporting week, keeping the new season's total at two. The CDC received one more report of a pediatric flu death that occurred in January during the 2023-24 season, boosting that total to 206. The CDC this week is marking the annual observance of National Influenza Vaccination Week to remind people that there's still time for everyone ages 6 months and older to be vaccinated against flu this season. Meanwhile, the nation's respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) activity remains elevated and continues to rise in the southern, central, and eastern regions, especially in children. ED visits for RSV are at the moderate level and are rising.

US flu activity picks up a little more pace –December 6 - Though US flu activity is still low, markers such as test positivity and emergency department (ED) visits show more rises, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) said today in its latest weekly update. In its monitoring of outpatient visits for flulike illness, Louisiana and the District of Columbia are at the high and very high level, respectively, with Georgia and Arizona at the lower tier of the high level. Most detections are influenza A, and subtyping last week at public health labs shows nearly 62% of influenza A viruses were H3N2 and 36% were 2009 H1N1. Nationally, outpatient visits are highest in the youngest children, followed by patients ages 5 to 24 years old.No pediatric flu deaths were reported this week, keeping the season’s total at two.In its overall respiratory virus snapshot today, the CDC upgraded the overall situation from low to moderate, noting that flu activity continues to slowly increase and that it expects COVID activity to rise in the coming weeks. Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) activity is moderate and continues to rise across most of the country, and illnesses caused by Mycoplasma pneumoniae (“walking pneumonia”) remain elevated in young children. In COVID-specific updates, the CDC said COVID activity remains low. Wastewater SARS-CoV-2 detections, considered an early indicator, remain low but are highest and gradually rising in the Midwest.In its latest variant proportion estimates today, the CDC said levels of the XEC variant, now at 44%, continue to rise and are now outpacing the KP.3.1.1 variant, which had been dominant the last several months. XEC is a hybrid of two JN.1 variants.

Report highlights danger of splash pads for waterborne diseases -- A study today in Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report that probed waterborne pathogen illnesses linked to splash pads in the United States since 1997 found that while chlorine is an important disinfecting agent, it does not eliminate Cryptosporidium, which is the most common cause of waterborne disease outbreaks associated with the playgrounds.Splash pads are recreational spaces with fountains, sprayers, and jets that have emerged as water playgrounds for children in the past 30 years."Splash pads, which first appeared in the 1990s, are designed so that water typically does not collect in areas accessible to users," the authors wrote. "Although this feature minimizes the risk for drowning, splash pads have been associated with waterborne outbreaks of either infectious or chemical [source]."Visitors are at risk of ingesting water that has been contaminated with feces at splash pads. Furthermore, because they lack standing water, some sates exempt splash pads from public health rules and regulations.The study included 60 waterborne disease outbreaks associated with splash pads reported from 23 states and Puerto Rico from 1997 to 2022. In total, these outbreaks included 10,611 cases, 152 hospitalizations, and 99 emergency department visits.There were no reported deaths during the study period. Among the 60 outbreaks, 39 occurred in places with splash pads only, and 21 occurred in splash pads that included other venues, including pools or hot tubs.Of the 10,611 cases, 9,622 cases (91%) and 123 hospitalizations (81%) were caused by Cryptosporidium,which was the pathogen associated with 40 outbreaks in the study.The three largest outbreaks (2,307 cases, 2,050 cases, and 2,000 cases) were all caused by Cryptosporidium.Norovirus, which caused two outbreaks, was associated with 72 emergency department visits (73%). Shigellacaused five outbreaks (including one that was also caused by Cryptosporidium), Escherichia coli O157:H7 caused three, and the following caused one outbreak each: Campylobacter jejuni, Giardia duodenalis(Cryptosporidium also implicated), norovirus, and Salmonella serotype Newport, the authors said.The most common barrier to infection used in splash pads is treatment with chlorine. Though chlorine is effective against many pathogens, it does not eliminate Cryptosporidium. The parasite can live longer than a week in chlorinated water, the authors said. In order to combat Cryptosporidium outbreaks, behavior at splash pads should be the targeted intervention, including carefully monitoring children in diapers and children who frequently sit on water spouts and fountains. "Recommended user behaviors in splash pads and other recreational water venues include not getting in the water if ill with diarrhea until two weeks after it has stopped, not swallowing the water, taking young children on bathroom breaks or checking diapers or swim diapers every hour, and, if needed, changing them away from the water," the authors concluded.

US parvovirus B19 cases spike, with infections noted in pregnant women, kids with sickle cell disease -- In Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report, three new studies describe increased infections of parvovirus B19 detected in US commercial labs, with five worrisome cases in pregnant Minnesotans and infections in children and teens with sickle cell disease in Georgia. In August, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) issued a Health Alert Network advisory on the rise in cases of the seasonal respiratory viral disease after receiving reports of lab test positivity and clusters of parvovirus B19–related complications among pregnant women and people with sickle cell disease. Several European countries had observed significant increases in B19 activity early in 2024.The illness, which can increase the risk of miscarriage early in pregnancy, is characterized by a "slapped-cheek" rash in children and joint pain in adults. While most cases are asymptomatic or mild, people with an underlying blood disease or a weakened immune system can experience more serious outcomes." B19 infection can be transmitted from a mother to the fetus during pregnancy and, rarely, through transfusion of blood components and certain plasma derivates," the authors of the lab study wrote. "Most persons become infected with B19 during their school years. Immunity from infection is thought to be lifelong." In the first of the three studies, researchers from North Carolina's Labcorp and the CDC investigated an uptick in parvovirus B19 test positivity at Labcorp in 2024 from levels in the 2018-19 respiratory virus season. Parvovirus B19 is not a notifiable illness in the United States. The investigators looked for the presence of immunoglobulin (Ig) M antibodies, a marker of recent infection, in clinical specimens from 359,445 children and adults and performed B19 nucleic acid amplification testing (NAAT) in plasma from an average of 1,059 donor pools each month. The percentage of IgM-positive clinical specimens climbed to 9.9% in spring 2024, up from less than 1.5% in 2020 to 2023, higher than peaks in the same period of 2018 (3.8%) and 2019 (5.1%). The prevalence of B19–NAAT-positive plasma-donor pools (512 donations per pool) rose to 20% in June, up from less than 2% in 2020 to 2023 and higher than peaks in spring 2018 (6.7%) and 2019 (7.3%). Increased parvovirus B19 positivity in both clinical specimens and healthy plasma donors suggests greater community transmission in 2024, the researchers said. " The authors urged healthcare providers to promote measures to prevent infection and, along with public health officials, to track adverse B19-related outcomes to reduce severe disease in pregnant women and other high-risk patients. For the second study, a team led by investigators from the University of Minnesota and the Minnesota Department of Health (MDH) detailed parvovirus B19 infections in five pregnant women from May to August 2024. The five patients didn't live in the same community, but four had children in their household, two of whom had ill children. The fifth patient was likely exposed at her job as a childcare provider at a facility in which illnesses characterized by fever and rash were circulating in children.All patients experienced B19 infections at 13 to 20 weeks' gestation, none of whom had a weakened immune system or blood disorder. One patient experienced a miscarriage at 20 weeks' gestation after fetal hydrops, one had no complications during a 3-month observation period, two fetuses developed severe anemia requiring fetal transfusion, and one fetus developed severe anemia and hydrops, requiring two fetal transfusions. The four latter patients delivered full-term infants without complications.MDH conducted metagenomic sequencing to generate full genomes using amniotic fluid from two patients, and both samples were genotype 1A, the most common circulating genotype worldwide. Specimens didn't appear to be related through a recent shared source or transmission event. The final study, conducted by a Children's Healthcare of Atlanta–led research team, involved 55 children infected with sickle cell disease (SCD) and parvovirus B19 infection from December 2023 to September 2024. The incidence of B19 infection associated with aplastic crisis—or life-threatening anemia that occurs when the bone marrow stops making red blood cells—among all children with SCD was 35.6 per 1,000 patient-years, 3.6 times higher than that from 2010 to 2023 (7.78 per 1,000 patient-years). Complications of SCD included acute chest syndrome (27%), splenic sequestration (11%), stroke (3.6%), and nephrotic syndrome (1.8%). Forty-three patients (78%) were given transfusions. One child died unexpectedly at home, but B19 was not confirmed in that case. "Health care providers should be aware of the risk for complications of B19 infection in children with SCD and have a low threshold for testing when there is clinical suspicion of aplastic crisis," the researchers wrote. "Children and adolescents with SCD and B19 infection should be monitored for complications; early red blood cell transfusion might prevent serious adverse outcomes."

DR Congo probes outbreak of deadly, mysterious flu-like illness -The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) is investigating the cause of an outbreak of an unknown disease centered in Kwango province that has so far sickened at least 376 people, with death counts ranging from 67 to 143, since late October.The main symptoms are fever, headache, runny nose, breathing problems, and anemia, according to the infectious disease tracking blog FluTrackers, which has been following reports of cases for the past week.Reuters has reported 143 deaths, while the Associated Press reported yesterday there have been from 67 to 143 fatalities.Reuters says women and children are the most seriously affected by the disease, and the DRC statement says the illness has been most lethal in children over the age of 15.The DRC notified the World Health Organization of the outbreak last week. The case-patients live in rural areas with limited access to medications, sources told Reuters.

WHO deploys expert team to DR Congo to assist with undiagnosed outbreak probe -- Amid an outbreak involving a still-undetermined cause in a remote location in the southwestern Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), the World Health Organization (WHO) said today that it has deployed an expert team to support the country’s investigators.The outbreak in a remote part of Kwango province in the Panzi Health Zone began in late October and first came to the attention of national authorities this week. The remote location doesn’t have testing capacity, and yesterday a top health ministry official said samples were sent to a lab in Kigali in neighboring Kwilu province, with results expected within 48 hours.Case and death totals have been shifting as the investigation evolves. The WHO today, citing the DRC health ministry, said 394 cases have been reported, 30 of them fatal. Symptoms include fever, headache, cough, breathing difficulties, and anemia.The WHO said an initial local team from the WHO has been supporting health authorities in Kwango province since the end of November to help reinforce surveillance and identify cases.In its announcement, the WHO said the new expert team will work alongside the DRC’s national response team. The group includes epidemiologists, clinicians, laboratory technicians and infection prevention and control, and risk communication experts. “All efforts are underway to identify the cause of the illness, understand its modes of transmission and ensure appropriate response as swiftly as possible.” The outbreak in the DRC and reports of a potential respiratory component has led to heightened awareness of illness symptoms in travelers in some locations outside of Africa.Hong Kong’s Centre for Health Protection (CHP) said yesterday that it has stepped up screening for travelers arriving from two travel hubs where travelers from the DRC typically originate: Johannesburg, South Africa, and Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.Yesterday media outlets in Ohio reported that a patient who had traveled from Tanzania to Cleveland had been isolated and hospitalized at UH St. John Medical Center for evaluation of flulike illness.

WHO report highlights burden, impact of healthcare-associated infections --A new report from the World Health Organization (WHO) provides an updated analysis of the harm caused to both patients and healthcare workers worldwide by the avoidable infections that result from gaps in infection prevention and control (IPC).Among the findings of the report, which was published late last week, is that healthcare-associated infections (HAIs) are an issue in hospitals around the world, and not only during epidemics and pandemics. In European countries, an estimated 4.8 million HAIs occur every year in patients admitted to acute-care hospitals. Globally, nearly 1 in 4 (23.6%) cases of sepsis are healthcare related. But most studies show the problem is particularly acute in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). For example, WHO analysis of published data show an average of 7 out of every 100 patients in acute-care hospitals in high-income countries (HICs) will acquire at least one HAI during their hospital stay. In LMICs, the figure is twice that (15%). Similarly, the incidence of HAIs in intensive care units is 30% overall but 2 to 20 times higher in LMICs than HICs. Compounding the problem is the fact that HAIs are frequently caused by antimicrobial-resistant pathogens, making them harder to treat and more likely to lead to complications, longer hospital stays, and premature death. The global number of HAIs resistant to antibiotics is estimated to be 136 million annually, with 119 million occurring in middle-income countries, according to the report. Mortality among patients infected with resistant HAIs is two to three times higher compared with those infected by susceptible pathogens."The emerging picture is that HAIs continue to be among the most frequent adverse events in health service delivery, with the highest burden in low- and middle-income countries," WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, PhD, said in a foreword to the report. "Strong IPC is essential for strong health systems and quality care, in emergencies and as part of every country’s journey towards universal health coverage."The key to reducing the burden and mitigating the harm of HAIs is implementing effective IPC interventions that are based on a practical, evidence-based approach, the WHO says. These interventions require trained and dedicated staff, infrastructure, and financial resources."IPC is a proven and cost-effective approach to prevent the transmission of infectious hazards, but applying it requires programmatic, institutional, financial and knowledge support," the report states. "Effective IPC requires constant and sustained action at all levels of the health system, ranging from policy-makers to facility managers, health workers and other relevant stakeholders, as well as all those who access health services, and their family members."But as the report shows, progress on implementing IPC at all levels of the health system has been slow in all countries, regardless of income level. According to the WHO’s 2023-24 Tracking AMR Country Self-assessment Survey, only 39% of countries had IPC programs fully implemented nationwide. Nine percent of countries had not developed any IPC program or plan.Implementation has been more difficult in LMICs, particularly at the healthcare-facility level. Global surveys carried out by the WHO in 2019 and 2023-24 show that the level of implementation of IPC core components—which include guidelines, education and training, surveillance, and monitoring, audit, and feedback—range from "inadequate" to "advanced," with LMICs scoring significantly lower than HICs. On average, low-resource countries scored at a "basic" level of implementation for most IPC core components, with limited implementation of IPC guidelines, HAI surveillance, training, and monitoring.Furthermore, IPC programs in LMICs are often unable to function properly and sustainably because they lack an enabling environment, the surveys found."In 2019, IPC programmes existed in almost all secondary and tertiary health care facilities," the report states. "However, particularly in LMICs, the facilities lacked full-time IPC professionals, an allocated IPC budget, routine microbiological laboratory support, and appropriate workload, staffing and bed occupancy."Many healthcare facilities in LMICs also lack access to clean water. A 2024 report by the WHO and UNICEF Joint Monitoring Programme for Water Supply, Sanitation and Hygiene (WASH) estimated that in 2022, 1.7 billion people worldwide were using a healthcare facility that lacked basic water services and 697 million were using facilities with unimproved toilets or no toilets.The report also notes that improvements achieved during the COVID-19 pandemic may have been recently lost, with some countries reallocating resources and funds from IPC and WASH to other areas.

Report: Adults who had childhood bacterial meningitis earned less, lost more workdays than peers --Swedish adults who had bacterial meningitis as children earned 4.0% less in annual income, used 13.5 more days of sick leave and disability pension, and had lower educational attainment than their peers, according to a studypublished yesterday in JAMA Network Open.Investigators from study sponsor Merck & Co. in New Jersey and Umea University in Sweden evaluated the outcomes of 2,534 adults listed in a nationwide disease registry who had childhood meningitis between January 1987 and December 2019, with 1 year of follow-up. Their outcomes were compared with 22,806 matched peers without the diagnosis."A diagnosis of bacterial meningitis in childhood can lead to permanent neurological disabilities," the authors wrote. At 28 years and older, participants who had childhood meningitis earned, on average, $1,295 less each year (95% confidence interval [CI], -$2587 to −$4), for a 4.0% (95% CI, 0% to 8.0%) reduction than controls. They also lost 13.5 (95% CI, 8.6 to 18.5) more workdays.Patients given a meningitis diagnosis at a younger age earned less and experienced more lost workdays than those diagnosed when they were older, and they were less likely to obtain a high school diploma by age 30 than controls (adjusted odds ratio, 0.68 [95% CI, 0.56 to 0.81)."These findings suggest that work ability is reduced in adults diagnosed with bacterial meningitis in childhood with long-lasting costs for the individual patient and society at large," the researchers wrote. In a commentary on the study, Malte Tetens, MD, and Niels Obel, MD, DMSc, noted that the researchers didn't investigate long-term outcomes among newborns or very young infants, who usually have poorer neurologic and neurodevelopmental outcomes than older children.

Data reveal risk of infection after colonization with resistant organisms --A population-wide cohort study in Ontario found that more than 15% of residents colonized with an antimicrobial-resistant (AMR) pathogen went on to develop an infection with the same pathogen, researchers reported yesterday in Open Forum Infectious Diseases.Using population-level health administrative data, a team led by researchers with the University of Toronto investigated the risk of infection among a cohort of residents of Ontario who had a positive surveillance test for a resistant pathogen from January 1, 2017, to December 31, 2021. The specific organisms of interest included methicillin-resistantStaphylococcus aureus (MRSA), vancomycin-resistant Enterococcus (VRE), extended-spectrum beta-lactamase–producing Enterobacterales (ESBL), and carbapenemase-producing Enterobacterales (CPE). The researchers also examined the effects of age, sex, and healthcare setting of colonization detection on subsequent infection risk.Among the 69,998 people with a positive surveillance test during the study period, 15.6% subsequently developed a sterile or non-sterile site infection, within a median of 57 days. Infection rates varied between organisms: 18.3% for MRSA within a median of 57 days, 2.8% for VRE within a median of 37 days, 21.5% for ESBL within a median of 71 days, and 20.3% for CPE within a median of 10 days. More than half of all infections occurred within 90 days.The association of age and sex with infection risk was variable, but a positive surveillance test detected in a hospital was universally associated across all resistant organisms with increased infection risk after colonization compared with the community setting.The study authors say the observed rate of infection after colonization is higher than has been found in previous studies, which have been limited by small sample size, single-care settings, and exclusive focus on high-risk patients or settings."Colonization with an AMR pathogen has variable infection risk depending on the specific pathogen, but the overall risk is likely higher than what has previously been reported for most organisms, highlighting the importance of detecting colonization from both an infection control and empiric antibiotic selection perspective," they wrote.

New 68-case Salmonella outbreak linked to cucumbers from Mexico -- Federal health officials have announced aSalmonella outbreak tied to cucumbers imported from Mexico that has sickened 68 people across 19 states. SunFed Produce, LLC, has issued a voluntary recall for the vegetables sold from October 12, 2024, to November 26, 2024. The Food and Drug Administration (FDA) said the American slicer cucumbers were packaged in bulk cardboard containers labeled with the SunFed label in a generic white box or black plastic crate with a sticker that reads, "Agrotato, S.A. de C.V.""FDA is working with SunFed Produce, LLC and their direct customers to determine if additional downstream customer recalls are necessary," the agency said.According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), as of November 26, 2024, a total of 68 people infected with the outbreak strain of Salmonella have been reported in 19 states. Illness-onset dates range from October 12, 2024, to November 16, 2024.Of the 50 people for whom information is available, 18 have been hospitalized. No deaths have been reported. Of 33 people interviewed by health officials, 27 (82%) reported eating cucumbers in the days prior to illness.Montana has reported the most cases, with 16. Colorado follows with 8 and Oregon with 7. Texas has 5 cases and South Dakota has 4. The median age of those sickened is 27, and 66% are females."CDC and states identified six illness sub-clusters at two assisted living facilities, three school districts, and one restaurant," the CDC said in its outbreak report. "An illness sub-cluster is a group of unrelated people who all ate at the same location or event, such as a restaurant, long-term care facility, or school. Cucumbers were served at these six sub-cluster locations."

New wastewater polio detections in Europe, more cases in 3 countries --Germany has become the latest European country to find poliovirus during routine wastewater surveillance, joining Spain and Poland who have also reported such detections in recent months.According to the Global Polio Eradication Initiative (GPEI), German officials found four circulating vaccine-derived poliovirus type 2 (cVDPV2) environmental samples in October and November, from four major cities: Munich, Bonn, Cologne, and Hamburg. m"Poliovirus has been detected through routine surveillance of wastewater systems in three countries in the WHO European Region (Germany, Poland and Spain) since September this year," GPEI said. "While no cases have been detected to date, the presence of the virus underscores the importance of vaccination and surveillance, as well as the ongoing risk that any form of poliovirus poses to all countries everywhere."The European region has been free of polio since 2002. Last week the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) urged countries to be cautious and proactive with routine vaccination."While the public health impact and significance of wastewater sample findings is yet to be determined, the priority actions remain the same: effective surveillance and high vaccination coverage across all communities,” the ECDC said. “Europe continues to have a high capacity to achieve both these goals.” In other polio news, in the past 2 weeks Pakistan has reported seven new wild poliovirus type 1 (WPV1) cases. The total number of cases for 2024 is 56.Afghanistan also detected a WPV1 case, bringing the country’s total this year to 25. Finally, Niger has three new vaccine-derived cases. The country has seen 14 cVDPV2 cases in 2024.

UK reports fifth imported mpox case -- The United Kingdom (UK) has reported its fifth clade 1b mpox case, which isn't part of the family cluster involving the previous four cases. The new case is in a patient from Leeds who had recently traveled to Uganda."This is the fifth case of Clade Ib mpox confirmed in England in recent weeks. This case has no links to the previous cases identified. All 4 previous cases were from the same household and all have now fully recovered," said the UK Health Security Agency in a report.Clade 1b has been causing mpox outbreaks across Africa, especially in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC). It has also been detected in the UK, Canada, Sweden, India, Thailand, and Germany. UK health officials said the overall threat to the UK population remains low.In related news, late last week Africa CDC reported 2,680 new cases in the most recent reporting week, mostly from Burundi, the DRC, and Uganda. Cameroon reported new cases after six weeks, and cases have been reported from a new part of Ivory Coast.The DRC and Burundi accounted for 96% of new cases. Children under the age of 15 account for 38% of the cases, and men make up 53.3% of cases overall.Several African nations are now entering their fourth week with no new cases: South Africa, Cameroon, Gabon, Guinea, and Rwanda.

Mpox continues its Africa spread as clade 1b confirmed in 2 more nations -- Africa's mpox outbreaks are still trending upward, with a rise in cases and deaths last week compared to the previous week, the head of the Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (Africa CDC) said today at a weekly briefing.Countries reported 36 more deaths, raising the total this year to 1,200. "We are still losing people," said Jean Kaseya, MD, MPH, director-general of Africa CDC. The region reported 2,708 new cases, putting the total for the year at 62,171 cases in 20 countries. Most cases and all of the deaths last week were from the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), which has been the main outbreak epicenter.Kaseya said sequencing results from two recently affected countries—Zimbabwe and Zambia—have revealed the novel clade 1b virus for the first time there. Overall, clade 2 viruses are mainly affecting adults, and the older clade 1a virus is disproportionately affecting children, such as in the DRC, where 87.6% of people with clade 1a are children. Meanwhile, the novel clade 1b virus is affecting both children and adults. Children younger than 15 years old make up 34.2% of confirmed cases, and more than half of the cases (54.2%) involve females. The region has been grappling with complex outbreaks involving different clades of the virus and different patterns of spread, with regional variations seen in some countries such as the DRC. Kaseya said the region is still struggling with lab testing issues, and efforts are under way to decentralize testing capacity. Sending samples to more distant labs is known to degrade the quality of the samples, which reduces testing accuracy.In the DRC, officials are still seeing similar trends with mpox and measles, mainly in Equateur and Tshuapa provinces. Kaseya added that enhanced surveillance for mpox could inadvertently be improving measles detection, or the trends could reflect case definition similarities.

Quick takes: Preventive Ebola vax in Sierra Leone, Oropouche expansion in Americas, ASPR airlifts more IV fluids | CIDRAP

• Sierra Leone yesterday launched a preventive Ebola vaccination campaign to protect frontline workers against future threats from the virus, the World Health Organization (WHO) said today. The campaign is targeting 16 districts with the Ervebo vaccine, developed in Canada and made by Merck. Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance, and other partners are supporting the effort. Immunization will include people likely to be some of the first involved in an outbreak response, including healthcare workers, traditional healers, community health and social workers, laboratory personnel, motorcycle taxi drivers, and security forces. Sierra Leone was one of the hardest hit countries in West Africa’s 2014-2016 outbreak.
• Since August, three more Americas countries and one new territory have reported their first local Oropouche virus cases of the year, the Pan American Health Organization (PAHO) said yesterday in anupdate. They include Ecuador, Guyana, Panama, and Cayman Island. The new confirmations push the number of Americas countries reporting either local or imported cases this year to 10, plus one territory. The illness total for the year is currently 11,642, including 2 deaths. Brazil has been the hardest hit country, and cases involving transmission from pregnant women to their babies have been reported from Brazil and Cuba.
• The Administration for Strategic Preparedness and Response (ASPR) within the US Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) said yesterday that it has partnered with SLI Medical to airlift 40,000 cases of critically needed intravenous (IV) fluid from South Korea. The move is the latest to address anongoing shortage that has resulted from damage to Baxter’s IV fluid manufacturing plant in North Carolina during Hurricane Helene. Officials said the airlift operation can expand to 21,000 cases per week, if needed. The move follows earlier airlift operations of IV products from Baxter’s international facilities, but certain IV fluids remain in short supply.

IV fluid shortages worsened by Hurricane Helene likely to linger despite larger allocations --Shortages of intravenous (IV) fluids, worsened by Hurricane Helene damage at Baxter's Marion, North Carolina, manufacturing plant, are expected to continue for months, although allocations to customers and distributors have increased, the US Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) said in a letter to hospitals yesterday.Since the hurricane triggered flooding at the plant in late September, many hospitals across the country have been delaying non-urgent surgeries and substituting oral electrolyte fluids (eg, Gatorade, Pedialyte). Baxter supplies about 60% of IV fluids to hospitals in the United States.In the letter, HHS Secretary Xavier Becerra, JD, noted current shortages of normal saline IV fluids, normal saline irrigation fluid, sterile water irrigation, and dextrose 5% IV fluids. "In the coming weeks, supply may continue to be constrained, and we understand that certain products are on allocation; however, Baxter reported that they have resumed shipments to hospitals and dialysis providers and patients after the temporary hold last week, based on allocations as previously communicated," he said.In the short-term, the inventory will support current allocations while several global Baxter plants scale up production, other domestic manufacturers step in to fulfill orders within their allocations, and the FDA works with Baxter to identify any products already in the company's system, expedite consideration of any requests for expiration-date extensions, and consider temporary product imports.HHS's Administration for Strategic Preparedness and Response (ASPR) is working with Baxter and other partners to support infrastructure repairs, the letter said. Based on this, the company's efforts to increase manufacturing capacity at other plants, and anticipation of inbound products and air shipments, the company said yesterday that it has increased allocations of its highest-demand IV fluids from 40% to 60% for direct customers and from 10% to 60% for distributors."We are also increasing high concentration dextrose and sterile water for injection allocations and expect to be in a position to make additional increases for certain product codes by early November," Baxter said. "Due to the vulnerable patient population they serve, allocations for IV solutions and nutrition products for designated children’s hospitals were increased to 100%."The goal, the company said, is to ramp up production and return to 90% to 100% allocation of certain IV solutions by the end of the year.

Chikungunya moving into new regions, disabling millions and racking up billions in costs, data suggest Globalization, urbanization, and climate change have significantly raised the risk of "explosive, unpredictable" outbreaks of the mosquito-borne disease chikungunya, which disabled millions and likely amassed close to $50 billion in healthcare and disability-related costs in 110 countries from 2011 to 2020, researchers report in BMJ Global Health. The first documented outbreak of the viral illness occurred in Tanzania in 1952. But over the past 20 years, climate change has allowed its vectors, Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopticusmosquitoes, to thrive in expanded geographic areas, posing threats to both developed and developing countries, the study authors noted. Chikungunya causes fever, severe joint pain, rash, and fatigue. While most cases are self-limited, the disease can affect neurologic and cardiovascular systems, leading to poor outcomes, including death. In some cases, chikungunya can result in debilitating chronic problems such as joint pain, which can significantly diminish quality of life.Because chikungunya prevalence is likely underestimated owing to misdiagnosis, poor testing infrastructure, and low healthcare access, the researchers analyzed data for 2011 to 2020 and modeled the results. Data sources were the Programme for Monitoring Emerging Diseases, local ministries of health, the Pan American Health Organization, the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, and the World Health Organization's CHOICE program.The team also estimated both direct costs (eg, testing, hospitalizations, outpatient care, drugs) and indirect costs (eg, inability of patients and caregivers to work). Most chikungunya infections (nearly 15 million) were reported by Latin America and the Caribbean. Brazil (3.2 million), the Dominican Republic (2.7 million), and French Polynesia (1.6 million) documented the most cases. Central and Eastern Europe and Central Asia had the fewest cases, with 202 in six countries, mainly attributed to travel from endemic areas. Worldwide, an estimated 13,000 (range, 2,242 to 336,286) people died of their infections. Cases peaked at 8.7 million in 2014 amid outbreaks in the Dominican Republic, Guadeloupe, French Polynesia, French Guiana, and several other islands. The estimated number of disability adjusted life years (DALYs)—or years of life lost due to illness, disability, or death—was estimated at 1.95 million, representing an average yearly loss of 195,000. Most DALYS (76%) resulted from chronic diseases, while acute illness made up the remaining 24%. DALYs peaked in 2014 to 2016, at 913,000, 432,000, and 262,000, respectively, because of major chikungunya outbreaks. A second peak occurred in 2019, with 131,000 cases. Most DALYs (80%) were reported by Latin American and Caribbean countries, followed by Southeast Asia, East Asia, and Oceania, which made up 12% of cases. Brazil contributed 329,000 DALYs (17%) of the global total from 2011 to 2020.The estimated financial toll of chikungunya was $49.9 billion, with $25.1 billion spent on chronic disease and $24.8 billion on acute illness over the study period.Direct costs totaled $2.8 billion (6%), and indirect costs tallied $47.1 billion (94%), with lost workdays the main driver of both types. The average cost of each case worldwide was $2,700. Latin American and Caribbean countries absorbed most of these costs."Especially in combination with its unpredictable nature, chikungunya could significantly impact local health systems," the researchers wrote. "Insights from this study could inform decision makers on the impact of chikungunya on population health and help them to appropriately allocate resources to protect vulnerable populations from this debilitating disease."

California reports H5N1 in more retail raw milk as virus infects 2 more dairy workers - The California Department of Public Health (CDPH) on November 27 warned residents about a second batch of raw milk on retail shelves that has tested positive for avian flu virus, as official await the results from the latest bulk milk tank testing on the farm in Fresno County that produces the products.In other developments, the CDPH reported two more infections in dairy workers, raising the state's human cases this year to 31, all but 1 involving exposure to sick cows. The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) hasconfirmed those 2 new cases, pushing the national total this year to 55. In its latest FluView update, the CDC said the two new cases from California both involve people ages 18 and older who had mild symptoms, which they reported to local health officials. Also, federal officials confirmed more H5N1 avian flu outbreaks on California dairy farms as well as at poultry facilities in three states. News of a second contaminated raw milk batch came 3 days after California announced the first positive test in retail raw milk sold by Raw Farms, based in Fresno, which is part of the Central Valley region that has been the epicenter of the state's dairy farm outbreaks since late August. For both batches, the positives in retail raw milk was the result of testing at the Santa Clara Public Health Laboratory. As with the first batch, the company has voluntarily recalled the second batch of raw milk. No known human illnesses have been reported.The CDPH said officials from the California Department of Agriculture were at Raw Farm's processing facility on November 27 to collect more samples of stored bulk tank milk and bottled milk, and test results are pending. California is among the states that has been regularly testing raw milk in bulk tanks. The Los Angeles Times reported that although county health department testing of retail samples was positive, state testing hadn't detected the virus via its bulk milk testing. It also said state officials on November 28 banned Raw Farm from distributing its raw milk products.The farm's owner also told the Times that follow-up tests at the farm on November 27 were positive for the virus. The Los Angeles County Department of Public Health in its warnings about the contaminated raw milk has been tracking outlets in its jurisdiction that have sold milk from Raw Farms. Last week, it listed 10 retailers and said more would likely be added as its investigation continues.On November 27, it posted an update that listed 49 locations, mostly Sprouts Farmers Market locations across the county. It urged residents to avoid drinking the recalled milk and to return any remaining product to the retailer. In updates since November 27, the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS) confirmed 14 more H5N1 outbreaks in dairy cattle, all involving California herds. The latest additions push the state's total to 475 and the national total to 689 across 15 states.Also, APHIS confirmed more H5N1 outbreaks in poultry in six states. All involve commercial farms. In California, the virus struck poultry farms in three counties—a duck breeder and a broiler facility housing more than 266,000 birds in Fresno County, a turkey farm in Merced County, and a commercial hatchery in Tulare County. In Minnesota, the virus hit two more turkey farms in Meeker County, one of which has nearly 242,000 birds.Similar outbreaks were confirmed at turkey farms in North Dakota (Ransom County), South Dakota (Beadle and Faulk counties), and Utah (Sanpete County).In the south, the virus was confirmed at a broiler farm in Tennessee's Gibson County that houses 37,200 birds. The outbreak is Tennessee's first since October 2023.

Canadian teen critical with Bird Flu: Tracing the source - Recently, the Public Health Agency of Canada announced the country’s first domestically acquired human case of H5N1 avian influenza, known as the bird flu. According to CNN, Scientists have since conducted genetic sequencing on isolated samples from the case, revealing that viral mutations may have made this specific avian flu variant more equipped to infect humans.^[] The case was reported in a teenager in British Columbia, who continues to be hospitalized with the condition. Lab testing indicated that the teen’s infection was H5N1 clade 2.3.4.4b, genotype D1.1, a type of avian flu that has been identified in an ongoing outbreak among poultry in British Columbia.^[] This is a different strain of avian flu than the one circulating among dairy cattle in the United States—HPAI A(H5) clade 2.3.4.4.b B3.13—which has been detected sporadically since April.^[]So far, scientists do not know how the teenager contracted the virus—nor have they identified any other related cases of human bird flu. The avian flu has impacted an estimated 12,287,000 birds in Canada, the Canadian Food Inspection Agency reported recentlyTo help stop the spread, the agency has restricted imports of bird products in some impacted areas. They also encourage people to contact the Canadian Wildlife Health Cooperative (CWHC) if they find dead or sick poultry. The CSHC lists numbers for local hotlines to call based on what county a person is located in. They do not list the outbreak as a food safety concern, and say there is “no evidence” that eating cooked poultry or eggs will transmit avian flu to humans.^[]While viral mutations raise big concerns for avian flu’s ability to infect humans, Canadian health officials have not reported any other human cases of avian flu at this time. As such, they maintain that infection risks are low for humans, but stress the need for public health efforts so that risks do not rise."This detection was picked up via hospital-based influenza surveillance, confirming that human influenza surveillance in British Columbia and Canada is effective at detecting avian influenza A(H5). We must continue to remain vigilant in our efforts to prevent the spread of avian influenza between animals and to humans,” Dr. Theresa Tam, Chief Public Health Officer of Canada said in a statement. Should risks of human infections increase, it will be important for doctors to help diagnose and treat patients. Per the rare reports so far, symptoms of avian flu in humans can range from mild to severe and can in some cases be deadly. According to the World Health Organization, of 261 human cases of avian influenza identified in the Western Pacific Region between January 2003 and September 2024, 54% were fatal.^[]

Bird Flu Virus in Canadian Teen Shows Mutations That Could Help It Spread Among Humans ---- In a development that health experts have warned might come, Canadian officials report that the bird flu virus isolated from a sick teen in Vancouver shows mutations that could help it spread more easily among humans.At this point, there is no evidence that this particular mutated H5N1 virus has traveled beyond the one Canadian patient: After monitoring of dozens of potential contacts among the teen’s friends, family and health care providers, “no further cases have been identified,” Dr. Bonnie Henry, provincial health officer for the province of British Columbia, told CNN.Still, scientists say the genetic changes seen in the Canadian case are ominous.“Certainly, this is one of the first times that we’ve really seen evidence of these sort of adaptation mutations in H5,” Dr. Jesse Bloom, a computational virologist at the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center in Seattle, told CNN.Bloom noted that the teen started experiencing symptoms a week before being admitted to the hospital, and that may have given the virus time to become better at entering the cells it was trying to infect.Importantly, the virus that infected the teen, who remains in critical but stable condition, is not the same strain as the one striking dairy cattle in the United States. Instead, it more closely resembles an H5N1 strain that is circulating in wild bird flocks in the Pacific Northwest, CNN reported.Canadian officials say they still don’t know how the teen was infected, since there was no known contact with wild birds.The three mutations seen in the Canadian case sit at spots on the genome that scientists have deduced would allow it to attach more easily to human cells, CNN reported. “It’s caught the attention of a lot of flu virologists, including myself, because some of the sequence has evidence of some of the types of mutations we worry about,” Bloom said.

Why a teenager’s bird-flu infection is ringing alarm bells for scientists - A strain of avian influenza is showing signs of adaptation to human hosts, but there is no evidence that it can transmit from person to person. In a children’s hospital in Vancouver, Canada, a teenager is in critical condition after being infected with an avian influenza virus that has researchers on high alert.Viral genome sequences released last week suggest that the teenager is infected with an H5N1 avian influenza virus bearing mutations that might improve its ability to infect the human airway. If true, it could mean that the virus can rapidly evolve to make the jump from birds to humans. It’s a worrying development but it doesn’t mean that a new pandemic is imminent, says immunologist Scott Hensley at the University of Pennsylvania in Philadelphia. At present, there is no sign that the virus — which is related but not identical to the H5N1 virus infecting US dairy cattle — has been transmitted from the sick adolescent to other people.“There is reason to be concerned,” he says. “But not reason to totally freak out.” The adolescent did not work or live on a poultry farm, and researchers have found no signs of H5N1 infection in household pets, said Bonnie Henry, a public health officer for the province of British Columbia in Victoria, Canada, during a press conference. “There is a very real possibility that we may not ever determine the source,” Henry said. The sequencing data suggest that the teenager is infected with a mixture of viruses, all of which are similar to a lineage of H5N1 viruses that is currently infecting poultry and waterfowl in the region. But researchers have homed in on three key differences between those viruses and the teenager’s: two possible mutations that could enhance the virus’s ability to infect human cells, and another that could allow it to replicate more easily in human cells, not just in the cells of its usual avian host. One interpretation of the sequencing data is that some of the viruses infecting the teenager contain the new mutations, and some do not. Such a result could also indicate an error in the sequencing process, but the rest of the sequences look clean and this particular constellation of mutations is unlikely to occur by chance, says Jesse Bloom, who studies viral evolution at the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center in Seattle, Washington. “It pops out,” he says. “It suggests that there is some evolution going on in this virus right at these important positions.” Furthermore, the teenager initially had an eye infection, which later developed into a severe lung infection. This could suggest that the virus became better able to enter airway cells after it had infected the adolescent. “It’s consistent with the idea that the virus might have evolved within that individual,” says Hensley.That could be good news of a sort: it implies that the mutated form of the virus was not the form that originally infected the teenager, and therefore that it might not be circulating widely.

Under certain conditions, a single H5N1 flu virus mutation could lead to spread among people - A single mutation in the highly pathogenic influenza (HPAI) H5N1 virus currently circulating among US dairy cows could facilitate its attachment to human cells, enabling person-to-person spread, underscoring the need for continuous surveillance, an experimental Scripps Research Institute studysuggests.But the researchers say other genetic mutations would likely be needed for the virus to prefer human cell receptors to avian receptors and enable efficient human transmission. While circulating H5N1 strains have caused mostly mild illness in dozens of people in the United States exposed to sick wild birds, poultry, dairy cows, and other mammals, the virus doesn't circulate among people.Using the H5N1 strain isolated from the first US human infection with bovine strain 2.3.4.4b (A/Texas/37/2024), the scientists introduced several mutations into the virus's hemagglutinin (HA) gene sequence to compare the binding of the protein with avian versus human-type cell receptors. Influenza viruses attach to cells via HA, which grabs onto sugar receptors and causes infection.The mutations, which were chosen to mimic natural mutations, were introduced only onto the HA surface protein and didn't involve the creation of or experimentation with a whole, infectious virus, the authors noted.The findings were published yesterday in Science. One mutation, the Gln²²⁶Leu substitution (Q226L), enabled the protein to more easily attach to receptors typically found on human cells, particularly in the presence of a second mutation, called Asn²²⁴Lys."This is an important study and adds to our broader understanding of the complexities of the hemagglutinin and neuraminidase mutations," said Michael Osterholm, PhD, MPH, director of the University of Minnesota's Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy (CIDRAP), who wasn't involved in the study. "However, it doesn't necessarily predict that this virus is close to becoming a human-to-human– transmitted virus," he added. "There are likely other mutations we don't yet understand that will be important in combination as relates to the emergence of a pandemic strain."With a growing number of H5N1 human infections resulting from contact with infected animals, the results highlight the importance of genomic surveillance to monitor for the emergence of H5N1 mutations, the authors said."Monitoring changes in receptor specificity (the way a virus recognizes host cells) is crucial because receptor binding is a key step toward transmissibility," says Ian Wilson, DPhil, co-senior author and the Hansen Professor of Structural Biology at Scripps Research, in a Scripps news release. "That being said, receptor mutations alone don’t guarantee that the virus will transmit between humans."

Scientists identify mutation that could facilitate H5N1 bird flu virus infection and potential transmission in humans -- Avian influenza viruses typically require several mutations to adapt and spread among humans, but what happens when just one change can increase the risk of becoming a pandemic virus?A study led by scientists at Scripps Research reveals that a single mutation in the H5N1 "bird flu" virus that has recently infected dairy cows in the U.S. could enhance the virus' ability to attach to human cells, potentially increasing the risk of passing from person to person.The findings—published in Science on December 5, 2024—highlight the need to monitor H5N1's evolution.Currently, there are no documented cases of H5N1 transmitting between people: bird flu cases in humans have been linked to close contact with contaminated environments as well as infected birds (including poultry), dairy cows and other animals. However, public health officials are concerned about the potential for the virus to evolve to transmit efficiently between humans, which could lead to a new, potentially deadly pandemic.The flu virus attaches to its host via a protein called hemagglutinin that binds to glycan receptors on the surfaces of host cells. Glycans are chains of sugar molecules on cell surface proteins that can act as binding sites for some viruses. Avian (bird) influenza viruses like H5N1 primarily infect hosts with sialic acid-containing glycan receptors found in birds (avian-type receptors).While the viruses rarely adapt to humans, if they evolve to recognize sialylated glycan receptors found in people (human-type receptors), they could gain the ability to infect and possibly transmit between humans."Monitoring changes in receptor specificity (the way a virus recognizes host cells) is crucial because receptor binding is a key step toward transmissibility," says Ian Wilson, DPhil, co-senior author and the Hansen Professor of Structural Biology at Scripps Research. "That being said, receptor mutations alone don't guarantee that the virus will transmit between humans."Past cases in which avian viruses adapted to infect and transmit between people required multiple mutations, usually at least three. But for the H5N1 2.3.4.4b strain (A/Texas/37/2024) isolated from the first human infection with a bovine H5N1 virus in the United States, researchers found that just a single amino acid mutation in the hemagglutinin could switch specificity to binding human-type receptors.Here, bovine refers to the species of dairy cows that were the immediate source of the virus for the human infection. Importantly, the mutation wasn't introduced into the whole virus—only the hemagglutinin protein to study its receptor-binding properties.For their study, the research team introduced several mutations into the H5N1 2.3.4.4b hemagglutinin protein that had been involved in receptor specificity changes in previous avian viruses.These mutations were selected to mimic genetic changes that could occur naturally. When the team assessed the impact of one of these mutations, Q226L, on the virus' ability to bind to human-type receptors, they found that that mutation significantly improved how the virus attached to glycan receptors, which represent those found in human cells.

Vietnam reports human H5 avian flu case -- Health officials in Vietnam's Long An province today reported a human H5 case involving an 18-year-old man who is hospitalized in Ho Chi Minh City with pneumonia and other severe symptoms, according to foreign language media reports translated and posted by FluTrackers, an infectious disease news message board. Long An province is in the Mekong Delta region of southern Vietnam. The patient is from Tan An, the provincial capital. Authorities were first notified about the case on November 14, and officials are waiting on further sequencing results to characterize the N gene. An investigation revealed hundreds of dead poultry at the patient's family home. The country reported its last human H5N1 case in March. Different H5N1 clades circulate in Vietnam and other parts of Asia and have been linked to sporadic human cases, but none involving human-to-human transmission. In April scientists warned of an H5N1 reassortant circulating across the Greater Mekong subregion that has infected both birds and people. It contains surface proteins of an older H5N1 clade (2.3.2.1c) that has circulated in parts of Asia with a newer clade (2.3.4.4b) that has circulated globally since 2022.

Avian flu infects another California dairy worker as more raw milk positives prompt wider recall -The California Department of Public Health (CDPH) todayreported one more avian flu infection in a dairy worker and yesterday announced a widened recall of Raw Farm's raw (unpasteurized) milk products following more positive test results. The latest illness in California puts the state's total at 32, all but 1 involving workers exposed at affected dairy farms. Confirmation by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention today lifts the national total this year to 58. In an announcement yesterday the CDPH said multiple positive results in recent days from Raw Farm's retail milk, its storage tanks, and its bottling facility have led to the widened recall of the company's raw milk and cream products. Given multiple detections of avian flu at the company's facilities, the CDPH urged consumers to avoid all of the company's products for humans, which also include cheese and kefir, and to avoid giving the company's pet food products—which include pet food toppers and pet kefir—to animals. Also, the California Department of Food and Agriculture has placed the farm under quarantine, which bars any new distribution of the company's raw milk, cream, kefir, butter, and cheese produced on or after November 27. So far no human illnesses linked to the dairy products have been reported, following two batches of Raw Farms milk that were pulled from store shelves after testing positive for avian flu. Officials said they are working with local and federal partners to investigate exposure and better understand how it might affect people. Drinking or accidentally inhaling the milk may pose a risk of illness, and touching the eyes, nose, or mouth with unwashed hands after contact with raw milk contaminated with avian flu may also lead to infection, the CDPH said. The agency also warned that animals have been known to get sick after drinking raw milk contaminated with avian flu, including cats in multiple states that died after drinking raw milk on affected dairy farms. In other developments, the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS) today confirmed 12 more outbreaks in dairy cattle, all on California farms. The confirmations push the state's total to 493 and the national total to 707 in 15 states.Also, APHIS confirmed two more outbreaks in poultry in two states, both involving commercial farms. One is a broiler farm in California's Fresno County that has more than 237,000 birds, and the other is a broiler chicken breeding farm in Oklahoma's Adair County that houses nearly 52,000 birds. In its wild-bird tracking, APHIS confirmed more than 50 more avian flu detections, with sampling dates in late October and November. Many are waterfowl from western states, but there are a few from the Midwest and South. Many were waterfowl found dead or sampled after hunter harvesting. Several were from agency-harvested pigeons and sparrows in Cache County, Utah, where outbreaks in dairy cattle were reported in October.

H5N1 outbreaks in California dairy cattle top 500 as virus strikes more poultry in 3 states -- The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS) today confirmed 11 more H5N1 avian flu outbreaks in dairy cattle, all in California. The new confirmations push the state's total to 504 and the national total to 718 in 15 states.California is the country's largest dairy producer, with roughly 1,300 commercial herds. The outbreaks began in late August and have now affected almost 40% of the state's dairy herds.Also, APHIS confirmed more avian flu outbreaks in poultry in three states. In California—hit hard by outbreaks in both cattle and poultry—the virus struck a commercial turkey farm housing more than 61,000 birds in Sacramento County. New outbreaks were also confirmed at two commercial farms in Stanislaus County: a turkey producer and a layer facility.Outbreaks were also reported in backyard poultry flocks in California's Riverside County, Kansas's Douglas County, and Utah's Utah County.

USDA issues national milk testing order --The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS) todayannounced a new federal order that spells out a national strategy for testing milk in the wake of ongoing H5N1 avian flu outbreaks on dairy farms.A handful of states have already adopted bulk milk tank testing policies, but the new federal order expands the approach to the national level. The order, developed with stakeholder input, requires raw unpasteurized milk samples to be collected and shared with the USDA for testing. The USDA also posted guidance on the new order. APHIS said the order is designed to provide a more uniform testing system that quickly identified infected herds and sheds light on how the virus is spreading. The three-part order covers sharing of raw milk samples, requires owners of affected herds to share epidemiological information, and requires private and state veterinary labs to report positive tests to the USDA. The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS) today confirmed more avian flu outbreaks in poultry flocks from two states, including three layer farms in California’s Merced County, one of which has more than 1.7 million birds. APHIS also confirmed the virus at a duck meat producer in California’s San Joaquin County that has 13,000 birds.Elsewhere, tests confirmed outbreaks at three commercial turkey farms in South Dakota, affecting flocks in Charles Mix, Mcpherson, and Spink counties. Taken together, the farms have nearly 185,000 birds.In other avian flu developments, APHIS confirmed two more outbreaks in dairy cattle, both from California. The latest outbreaks push California’s total since the virus first turned up in Central Valley dairy cows in late August to 506. The national total is now 720 from 15 states.

Bird flu found in Kansas City area waterfowl, hawk as human cases continue elsewhere - A highly contagious bird flu, officially called Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza or HPAI, is spreading rapidly among wild birds around the U.S. — including in the Kansas City area.In recent months, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention have identified the bird flu in six geese and a red-shouldered hawk found dead in Jackson and Clay counties in late 2023. The bird flu has been detected in Missouri waterfowl, raptors, seabirds and shore birds — so far, it hasn’t been detected in songbirds.Human cases of the bird flu remain low, with 58 confirmed during the current outbreak nationwide. Only one human case has been confirmed in Missouri — although the case isof interest to researchers due to the patient’s lack of previous contact with livestock. However, there are signs that the virus’s ability to move between species may increase.On Friday, the U.S. Department of Agriculture released a nationwide testing order for raw milk aimed at the bird flu. Unpasteurized or “raw” milk can contain viruses and other pathogens that are killed during the pasteurization process. The effort aims to identify infected dairy herds before their milk is pasteurized and enters the public supply.According to the Missouri Department of Conservation, using common-sense safety precautions around wild birds can help reduce the spread of the bird flu. This includes drying off waders and other waterfowl hunting gear before transporting it from one place to another and making sure you cook any hunted waterfowl until the internal temperature reaches 165 degrees.Humans cannot get the bird flu from properly cooked waterfowl and poultry because normal cooking temperatures are high enough to kill the virus that causes the disease.While bird feeders can be a site of disease spread for songbirds, the state doesn’t recommend removing them unless you also keep chickens or other domestic birds that can catch the disease directly from wild birds. “Widespread removal of feeders is not an effective way to reduce the spread since waterfowl and raptors do not visit bird feeders frequently,” the Department of Conservation writes on its website. “Songbirds do not appear to be major carriers of this virus, so are at low risk from this avian influenza strain.”

Ferret study suggests connection between H5N1 shedding in air and transmissibility -- A recent mammal H5N1 avian flu strain and an H5N1 virus strain from an infected Texas dairy worker showed low but increased ability to transmit by air compared to older H5N1 strains, according to a ferret study published yesterday by a research team based at Erasmus University Medical Center in the Netherlands. To assess the public health risk of the newer H5N1 viruses, the team examined virus shedding in the air by examining experimentally infected ferrets. The animals were placed in cages connected to aerosol samplers that captured infectious virus expelled in the air. The group published its findings inNature Microbiology.With groups of four ferrets, scientists tested six different viruses to assess differences in airborne shedding, which included 2009 H1N1 seasonal flu, a wild-type zoonotic Indonesian H5N1 virus from 2005 and a modified version of the virus that was earlier found to be transmissible by the air among ferrets, a 2022 H5N1 virus from a European polecat, a 2024 H5N1 virus from a Texas dairy worker, and a 2024 H5N1 virus from an Ohio dairy cow.The researchers found that the 2009 H1N1 virus was efficiently shed by the ferrets in the air, but air sampling didn't detect any older wild-type or recent bovine virus. Meanwhile, they observed shedding for one of four ferrets infected with the 2022 polecat strain and the 2024 virus isolated from the dairy workers.They said the shedding data resembled results from ferret-to-ferret transmission studies and that the lack of shedding in the air rather than the absence of mammalian adaptation mutations may explain the absence of transmission of the older H5N1 viruses.

First CWD cases in deer outside of containment zone reported in West Virginia -- The first cases of chronic wasting disease (CWD) outside of West Virginia's Potomac Highlands and Eastern Panhandle management zone have been discovered in captive white-tailed deer in the north-central part of the state, MetroNewsreports.Kent Leonhardt, West Virginia Commissioner of Agriculture, told the news outlet that the first positive CWD test was documented in September after a number of captive deer on a farm died of epizootic hemorrhagic disease (EHD), which affected deer in many parts of the state this year amid drought. He said the deer likely died of EHD but also had CWD. They were the state's first CWD cases from a captive-deer facility, which has been quarantined. "Right now we believe it has been contained," Leonhardt said. "The farmer has been very cooperative and we're trying to get a very humane depopulation done so that it doesn't continue to spread, but at the same time we've got to make sure the farmer is properly compensated."One CWD-positive deer from the farm had been transferred to another facility in the state 2 days before its CWD status was known. That facility wasn't quarantined.West Virginia's CWD containment zone was established more than a decade ago after detections in wild deer.Caused by misfolded infectious proteins called prions, CWD is a fatal neurodegenerative disease that affects cervids such as deer, elk, moose, and reindeer. CWD can spread from animal to animal and through environmental contamination. The disease isn't known to infect humans, but authorities advise against eating meat from a sick animal and recommend using precautions when handling carcasses.EHD is a viral disease transmitted primarily to white-tailed deer by tiny biting flies called midges. The fatal disease can also affect mule deer, pronghorn antelope, and domestic sheep, cows, and goats. It typically causes fever, loss of appetite, weakness, loss of fear of humans, and swelling of the head or neck. Death usually occurs within 8 to 36 hours of symptom onset.

With fourth CWD case in British Columbia, officials urged to do more to contain spread -Yesterday, officials in British Columbia (BC) reported a fourth case of chronic wasting disease (CWD) in the Kootenay region as the BC Wildlife Federation (BCWF) urged the province to take immediate steps to stem transmission of the fatal neurodegenerative disease.The Canadian Food Inspection Agency confirmed the latest case last week in a white-tailed deer harvested in October.The first two BC cases were confirmed in January 2024, with a third discovered last month. They included a mule deer and two white-tailed deer near Cranbrook. CWD surveillance efforts have resulted in the collection of 3,000 samples from the Kootenay region, in the southeastern part of the province."The Province is gathering data to help guide decisions and reduce the risk of the disease spreading," officials said in the news release. "These measures are supported by First Nations, stakeholders and the broader hunting community." But the BCWF said more action is needed. "The BCWF is concerned that chronic underfunding and a backlog of samples submitted by hunters will hamper efforts to detect and contain this fatal disease," it said in a news release. "No additional dedicated funding was allocated for CWD in the last provincial budget." Jesse Zeman, MA, executive director of the BCWF, called for the culling of urban deer populations like those in Cranbrook, additional CWD testing, and dedicated funding."City deer have a small range and relatively high density, living in close quarters with frequent contact, which makes them a perfect vector for disease," he said. "Because deer may contract the disease but remain symptom-free for months or years, urban deer pose a high risk of dispersing the pathogen."Caused by misfolded infectious proteins called prions, CWD affects cervids such as deer, elk, and moose. CWD can spread from animal to animal and through environmental contamination. The disease isn't known to infect humans, but authorities advise against eating meat from sick animals and recommend using precautions when handling carcasses.

Biden proposes raising acceptable threshold for atrazine, sparks criticism --The Biden administration is proposing to raise a key threshold determining how much of a pesticide that’s commonly used in the agriculture industry the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) finds concerning in the environment — spurring ire from some environmental advocates. The agency currently considers an average of just 3.4 micrograms per liter of the pesticide atrazine to be an acceptable level.But a proposal released this week raises that level up to 9.7 micrograms — saying nearly three times as much of the substance is OK to be present in the environment. Under the draft plan, actions will need to be taken to mitigate potential impacts when levels in the environment exceed the 9.7 microgram level.Lori Ann Burd, environmental health program director at the Center for Biological Diversity, slammed the proposal. “Atrazine is so toxic, even in microscopic amounts, and so extremely persistent, that effective mitigation is just impossible,” Burd said in a written statement. “But the EPA keeps bending over backward to accommodate growers who insist on drenching our nation’s food, fiber and fuel with atrazine at the expense of public health and the environment,” she added. Atrazine is used on many U.S. crops, including corn and sugarcane. It has been banned in the European Union and several other countries and has been found to disrupt the endocrine system.

Study reveals presence of fentanyl in Gulf of Mexico dolphins - A team of faculty and student researchers at Texas A&M University-Corpus Christi (TAMU-CC), in partnership with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and Precision Toxicological Consultancy, have detected traces of human pharmaceuticals in the blubber of live, free-swimming common bottlenose dolphins in the Gulf of Mexico. Dolphins, like humans, consume fish and shrimp, suggesting potential human health impacts."Pharmaceutical drugs are therapeutic substances used in human and veterinary medicine to diagnose, treat, cure, or prevent disease," said Dr. Dara Orbach, Assistant Professor of Marine Biology at TAMU-CC and Principal Investigator on the project. "Yet, improper use of pharmaceuticals can cause harmful effects including antibiotic resistance, addiction, overdose, and mortality. Furthermore, pharmaceuticals have become emerging micropollutants and are a growing global concern as their presence has been reported in freshwater ecosystems, rivers, and oceans worldwide." The study, "Pharmaceuticals in the Blubber of Live Free-Swimming Common Bottlenose Dolphins," published in the journal iScience, analyzed 89 dolphin blubber samples, including 83 collected through live-animal biopsy and six from deceased dolphins.Pharmaceuticals were found in 30 of the dolphins. Fentanyl, an opioid analgesic for severe pain that is 100 times more potent than morphine, was present in 18 of the biopsied animals and in all post-mortem dolphins.The team selected dolphins from three sites around the Gulf of Mexico, including Redfish Bay and the Laguna Madre in Texas, along with 12 historic dolphin tissue samples from the Mississippi Sound collected in 2013."Dolphins are often used as bioindicators of ecosystem health in contaminant research due to their lipid-rich blubber that can store contaminants and be sampled relatively minimally invasively in live animals," Orbach said."We did find one dead dolphin in Baffin Bay in South Texas within one year of the largest liquid fentanyl drug bust in US history in the adjacent county. And the Mississippi dolphins comprised 40% of our total pharmaceutical detections, which leads us to believe this is a long-standing issue in the marine environment."Tissue samples from dolphins residing in areas with high threat risks, such as oil spills, vessel traffic, and algal blooms, showed higher levels of pharmaceutical contamination."Chronic exposure to pharmaceuticals and their cumulative effects on marine mammals are not yet fully understood, yet their presence in three dolphin populations across the Gulf of Mexico underscores the need for large-scale studies to assess the extent and sources of contamination," Orbach said.

Seals with shark bites spotted along Massachusetts South Shore -- As Thanksgiving approached, white sharks were still trying to have a feast of their own in the chilly waters. Shark researchers have seen a higher number of seals with shark bites along the Massachusetts South Shore this fall. Whale and Dolphin Conservation's Marine Animal Rescue and Response team has responded to seven seals with shark bites between Hingham and Plymouth over the past several weeks—a seven-fold increase compared to the previous month. "The important thing to note is that we are finding these seals because the predation attempts were likely happening close to shore, giving the seals a chance to escape to the beach, or for their carcass to wash ashore," said Lauren Brandkamp, Whale and Dolphin Conservation's stranding coordinator. "This means that the sharks are still close to our beaches," Brandkamp added. Not all of the seals were fatally injured by the shark attacks. Sometimes white sharks will intentionally "bite and spit" seals, which allows them to avoid being injured by the seal's teeth and claws while they wait nearby for the prey to bleed out, said New England Aquarium shark scientist John Chisholm. Other times, sharks will simply take an "investigatory bite" to decide if the prey is worth pursuing. In both cases, seals often survive these encounters. Chisholm has been surveying the coastal waters of Massachusetts this month, and he has reported several sightings of large white sharks near beaches from Duxbury to Chatham. "Although the majority of white sharks are starting to move south, we know from tagging data and sighting reports that they are present off Massachusetts into the winter months," Chisholm said. "White sharks are one of the few shark species that can elevate their body temperature, which allows them to tolerate cooler water." Chisholm echoed Brandkamp's call to remain "Shark Smart" this time of year—which includes avoiding entering the water in areas where seals or schools of fish are present. An increase in reports of sharks and seals in the area does not necessarily translate to more incidents, but rather an increase in reports. "And this mild fall weather means people might feel like getting in the water and, while the tourist beach season has ended, the shark season has not," Brandkamp said.

Iceland authorizes whale hunting until 2029 -Iceland, one of only three countries still allowing whale hunting, on Thursday issued permits to two whaling companies for the next five years, until 2029, the outgoing government announced.The decision was denounced by animal rights activists and environmental groups, who criticized the fact that it had been taken by a caretaker government.The permits allow for annual catches of 209 fin whales and 217 minke whalesduring each year's whaling season, which runs from mid-June to September, said the government, which lost Saturday's elections.Fin whales are listed as a vulnerable species by the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN).Whaling permits are normally delivered for five-year periods, but the last ones expired in 2023. The only remaining active whaling ship, the Hvalur, was asking for and receiving renewals to its permit every year.Thursday's decision was slammed in a joint statement by Iceland's environment association and its youth wing."Democracy is not respected and the issuing of permits violates the interests of the climate, of nature and of the well-being of animals," they said.The Whale and Dolphin Conservation charity also denounced the permits."We are disgusted by the decision," they said in a statement, in which they also argued that it was "highly unethical" for a caretaker government to make such a decision.The Captain Paul Watson Foundation took a similar view, criticizing what it called a "shocking abuse of power".The foundation's founder, Paul Watson, is currently being held by the Greenland authorities, after being arrested in July in Nuuk, capital of the Danish autonomous territory. He was detained on a 2012 Japanese arrest warrant, which accuses him of causing damage to a whaling ship in the Antarctic in 2010 and injuring a whaler.

New Trump administration could bring shift in approach to Snake River dam breaching -- The change from the Biden to the Trump administration is primed to alter the trajectory of salmon recovery in the Snake and Columbia river basins. The effort to save the threatened and endangered fish through breaching one or more of the four dams on the lower Snake River was elevated to unprecedented levels during Joe Biden's time in the White House. His administration inked a deal that paused salmon-and-dam litigation in exchange for helping the Nez Perce and other tribes develop renewable energy. The agreement commits hundreds of millions of dollars to salmon recovery and calls for studies to identify the best ways to replace the transportation and irrigation services now provided by the dams. Snake River salmon and steelhead returns once numbered in the millions but declined dramatically following construction of eight dams between Lewiston and the Pacific Ocean. Most returning adult fish are now from hatcheries, and wild spring chinook, steelhead, sockeye and fall chinook are all protected by the Endangered Species Act. Many salmon advocates and scientists view dam breaching as the best and likely only way to recover the wild fish. But dam removal would end the use of the lower Snake River as a shipping channel between Lewiston and the Tri-Cities in Washington, reduce the amount of low-carbon energy produced by the federal hydroelectric system and make irrigation more expensive for farmers near Ice Harbor Dam. Donald Trump said little if anything publicly about salmon and steelhead during his recent successful campaign for the presidency or during his first term. But he has spoken out against wind and solar power, two sources of alternative energy seen as important to replacing power generated at Snake River dams if they were to be breached. Nor is he viewed as an environmental champion. Aside from Idaho Rep. Mike Simpson, many Republicans who may have the returning president's ear bitterly oppose dam breaching, including the rest of Idaho's Congressional delegation: Dan Newhouse of central Washington, Rep. Cliff Bentz of Oregon and Rep. Michael Baumgartner, who will replace Cathy McMorris Rodgers representing eastern Washington. With the GOP in control of both the House and Senate, they have more power to pass pro-dam legislation. Newhouse expects it to pay dividends. "The trifecta from this election is a big win for the lower Snake River dams," he said in a statement to the Tribune. "This administration is coming in focused on energy dominance, and hydropower plays a huge role in boosting domestic production and keeping prices low for ratepayers. This is something we have been working on in depth, and I am looking forward to putting policies in place that keep our dams safe and strong." Dam supporters said they are eager to work with Trump and his administration to ensure the litigation agreement reached under Biden is implemented fairly and that the importance of the hydrosystem in providing affordable and reliable electricity is recognized. Clark Mather, executive director of Northwest River Partners, noted inflation and the high costs of goods and services played a pivotal role in the election.

Record snowfall blankets parts of U.S. during Thanksgiving snowstorm - A powerful lake-effect snowstorm fueled by record-warm water temperatures in the Great Lakes unleashed its full force over 2024 Thanksgiving weekend in the United States, burying parts of New York, Pennsylvania, and Michigan under more than 90 cm (3 feet) of snow. The city of Erie, Pennsylvania, experienced its snowiest day on record on Friday, November 29, receiving 57.4 cm (22.6 inches) of snow in 24 hours. The Arctic air colliding with the warm lake waters triggered intense snowfall rates of up to 100 mm (4 inches) per hour, creating hazardous conditions that are expected to persist until midweek.

• A powerful snowstorm brought record snowfall to the Great Lakes region, with Saybrook, Ohio, recording 1.24 meters (49 inches) and Erie, Pennsylvania, experiencing its snowiest day on record with 57.4 cm (22.6 inches) on Friday alone.
• The storm caused widespread travel disruptions, forcing closures on major highways such as Interstates 90 and 86 across Pennsylvania and New York. Over 100 vehicles had to be towed from Route 5 in Dunkirk, New York, while commercial travel bans remain in effect for parts of I-90.
• New York and Pennsylvania declared states of emergency as snow buried several counties. Pennsylvania activated its National Guard to assist stranded drivers and respond to emergencies, while Erie County, Pennsylvania, declared a snow disaster due to dangerous road conditions.
• Nearly 2.9 million people remain under Lake-Effect Snow Warnings in New York, Pennsylvania, and Ohio. Additional Winter Storm Warnings and Winter Weather Advisories are in effect for Michigan, as heavy snow is expected to continue through Wednesday in areas downwind of Lakes Erie and Ontario.

Snow accumulations exceeded 90 cm (3 feet) in parts of Erie County, Pennsylvania, and Western New York south of Buffalo, as well as downwind of Lake Ontario in Northern New York, with forecasts suggesting an additional 30 – 60 cm (1 – 2 feet) of snow before the storm tapers off. Interstate 90 was shut down in both directions across Erie County, Pennsylvania. The neighborhood of North East reported over 110 cm (43 inches) of snow as of Sunday morning, with surrounding areas also exceeding 90 cm (3 feet). Saybrook, Ohio, reported 124 cm (49 inches) of snow by Sunday, while Barnes Corners and Copenhagen in New York recorded 117 cm (46 inches) near the eastern end of Lake Ontario. In New York, Governor Kathy Hochul announced late Saturday, that westbound lanes from Exit 57 to the Pennsylvania state line had reopened to passenger vehicles. However, a commercial travel ban from Exit 46 to the Pennsylvania border remains in effect. Interstate 86 was also closed near Erie, Pennsylvania, while New York officials issued travel bans in Dunkirk, Fredonia, and Pomfret. “We have been working tirelessly to keep Route 5 open in the Dunkirk area. However, over 100 vehicles had to be towed to allow our plows to get through,” stated New York State Department of Transport (DOT) officials. Governor Hochul declared a state of emergency for nearly a dozen upstate New York counties to address the long-duration snow event. In Pennsylvania, Governor Josh Shapiro activated the state’s National Guard to assist with stranded drivers and emergency responses. Erie County Executive Brenton Davis also declared a snow disaster, cautioning, “Roads are dangerous, and travel is strongly discouraged except for emergencies.” In Michigan, snow totals reached 66.5 cm (26.2 inches) in Sault Ste. Marie and 85.9 cm (33.8 inches) in Gaylord, where Friday’s 63 cm (24.8 inches) set a new record for the city’s snowiest calendar day. The Upper Peninsula’s western regions near Ironwood saw 68.6 cm (27 inches), with Munising in the eastern area recording 61 cm (2 feet). Snowfall and traffic disruptions extended into Ohio, with Interstate 90 experiencing multiple crashes east of Cleveland on Sunday, December 1. Nearly 2.9 million people across western and northern New York, northwestern Pennsylvania, and northeastern Ohio remain under a Lake-Effect Snow Warning through at least Monday, December 2. Additional Winter Storm Warnings and Winter Weather Advisories are in effect for Michigan’s snow-prone areas.

Storm dumps over 1.22 m (4 feet) of snow over New York, U.S. – (video) - The Thanksgiving holiday brought record-breaking lake-effect snowstorm to parts of the United States, with areas in New York State, such as Copenhagen, buried under as much as 1.22 m (4 feet) of snow. Video credit: Storm Chaser Aaron Rigsby. The record-breaking lake-effect snowstorm that swept across the United States over Thanksgiving brought significant snowfall to New York State, with some areas, including Copenhagen, receiving up to 1.22 m (4 feet) of snow. A flow of cold air over the warm waters of the Great Lakes is expected to generate additional waves of snow through Tuesday, December 3. Parts of Jefferson County have already received 1.02 m (40 inches) of snow since late last week. The Lorraine Fire Department rescued stranded campers in the area on Saturday, November 30, after heavy snowfall. According to the National Weather Service (NWS), temperatures are forecasted to be 5.6 – 8.3 °C (10 – 15 °F) below normal across parts of the Midwest and the eastern third of the country throughout the week. Full story:

Lake-effect snow causes multi vehicle crash on I-90, closes interstate, Pennsylvania - (video) A winter storm gripping the northeastern United States and Midwest caused chaos along the I-90 corridor in Pennsylvania, where lake-effect snow led to a multi-vehicle crash involving several semi-trucks on December 3, 2024. Conditions along the I-90 will be nearly impossible to travel today and meteorologists are urging to limit or cancel travel as blowing snow in Western Pennsylvania could reduce visibility to zero.Erie County, PA – Lake effect squall causes multivehicle pileup on I-90, closes interstate Winter storms impacting the northeastern United States, Upper Midwest, and Mid-Atlantic regions have prompted several snow squall warnings and resulted in heavy snowfall and blizzard-like conditions across multiple areas, including in Erie County, Pennsylvania where a multi-vehicle crash involving several semi-trucks took place along the I-90 corridor on December 3.The interstate was closed while crews worked to remove the vehicles. Conditions along the I-90 will be nearly impossible to travel today, too as the lake-effect snow continues to dump on western New York and Pennsylvania. Meteorologists are urging to limit or cancel travel as blowing snow in Western Pennsylvania could reduce visibility to zero.

At least 30 dead after Cyclone Fengal makes landfall over Puducherry, India - Cyclone Fengal made landfall near Puducherry, India at around 19:00 local time (LT) on Saturday, November 30, 2024, unleashing winds of up to 90 km/h (55 mph) and heavy rainfall that caused severe flooding, disrupted transport services, and left at least 30 people dead. With 484 mm (19.06 inches) of rain recorded in Puducherry, the highest in 30 years, authorities issued Red Alerts across Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh, Kerala, and Karnataka. Satellite image of Cyclonic Storm Fengal making landfall.

• Cyclone Fengal made landfall near Puducherry with wind speeds reaching up to 90 km/h (55 mph) and caused significant flooding and damage across southern India, particularly in Chennai.
• Puducherry recorded 484 mm (19.06 inches) of rainfall in 24 hours, the highest in 30 years, causing widespread flooding. Chennai also experienced significant rainfall, with 225 mm (8.86 inches) recorded in a single day.
• The storm resulted in the closure of Chennai Airport, with 226 flights canceled, suburban train services disrupted, and over 50 roads submerged. Three rain-related fatalities were reported in Chennai, including two electrocution incidents.

A storm surge warning was issued for all low-lying areas in the coastal districts of North Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, and southern regions of Andhra Pradesh, with storm surges expected to reach 1 m (3.3 feet) above the astronomical tide. Fishing operations in the region have been suspended, and fishermen at sea were advised to return to shore. The system completed the landfall process at around 02:00 LT on Sunday, December 1, as it moved west-southwestward and crossed the North Tamil Nadu-Puducherry coast between Karaikal and Mahabalipuram, near Puducherry, as a cyclonic storm traveling at 10 km/h (6 mph). Sustained wind speeds ranged between 70 – 80 km/h (43 – 50 mph), with gusts up to 90 km/h (55 mph). Heavy rainfall across southern India caused flooding in low-lying areas and disrupted flights and train services in Chennai. Chennai recorded 225 mm (8.86 inches) of rainfall on Saturday between 08:30 and 22:30 LT, with an additional 114 mm (4.49 inches) recorded in other areas of the city. Cuddalore reported 83 mm (3.27 inches) of rainfall during the same period.

Storm Bora hits Greece with powerful winds and heavy rain, leaving at least 3 people dead - Storm Bora continues to affect Greece bringing heavy rain and thunderstorms to eastern regions, including Athens, Thessaly, and the Cyclades on Monday, December 2, 2024. The storm resulted in widespread destruction and at least 3 fatalities. Storm Bora formed on November 29 and was named by the Hellenic National Meteorological Service (HNMS) as it approached the Ionian Sea. The storm intensified on November 30, bringing heavy rainfall, thunderstorms, and powerful winds to Central and Eastern Macedonia, northeastern parts of Greece, Thrace, the central region of Thessaly, and the southernmost Peloponnese. Widespread infrastructural damage and flooded homes were reported in Lemnos, including the island’s capital, Myrina (population 6 200). Roads and electricity infrastructure were also impacted, as well as drinking water. A 57-year-old livestock farmer from the village of Kontias (Lemnos) was swept away by floodwaters while attempting to free his car from mud near the overflowing Kontias dam. His body was recovered hours later by emergency services. In a separate incident in Lemnos, a 70-year-old man suffered a fatal head injury after falling on slippery stairs outside his home during the severe weather. A third fatality was reported on the Halkidiki Peninsula, where a man died of hypothermia after his car overturned in a ditch while avoiding rocks from a landslide. Emergency teams are dealing with widespread damage in the area, including flooding, mudslides, and power outages. The island of Rhodes experienced heavy rainfall with some areas receiving over 170 mm (6.7 inches) in just a few hours. The heavy rainfall caused severe flooding in the villages of Ialysos, Kremasti, Maritsa, Damatria, and Paradeisi. Authorities imposed a traffic ban due to extensive damage to the road network and announced the closure of schools on Monday, December 2. An emergency alert warned residents to avoid traveling between Porto Koufo and Neos Marmaras due to bad weather and damaged roads. The fire service handled over 3 000 weather-related calls, mostly from Central Macedonia and Rhodes. Giorgos Hatzimarkos, South Aegean Regional Governor, described the situation as “devastating and deeply shocking,” noting that such rainfall had never before been recorded in the South Aegean. “The situation on the island [Rhodes] is devastating and deeply shocking. The people of Rhodes are reeling from what occurred on Saturday,” Hatzimarkos said. Mainland Greece also faced severe conditions. Central Macedonia reported heavy rainfall leading to roads being covered in stones and mud. In Thessaloniki, strong winds caused trees to fall, damaging shops and cars and causing power outages. The city’s fire brigade received more than 380 calls overnight to deal with fallen trees. While the electricity has been restored in most areas by Monday morning, some disruptions still remain.

Severe flooding leaves at least 3 dead, 15 injured in Grand’Anse, Haiti - Torrential rains have caused severe flooding across the Grand-Anse department of Haiti from November 30 to December 2, 2024, leaving nearly 80% of the municipal territory flooded and claiming at least 3 lives. The worst affected was Jeremie city, where floodwaters submerged approximately 80% of its land area. The International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies (IFRC) initially reported that 2 individuals lost their lives, 13 others sustained injuries and 2 individuals were missing in the nearby Dame-Marie commune. 60 people have been displaced across the region, and 160 have been directly affected by the disaster, according to their data. Local media sources reported 3 fatalities in Jeremie on December 3, including 2 children killed by a landslide in the Versailles neighborhood. Saint Antoine Hospital admitted at least 15 injured residents after floodwaters hit residential areas. Visuals captured by reporters depicted neighborhoods submerged under muddy waters, with widespread destruction to homes and infrastructure.

11 dead, thousand displaced as severe storms hit Malawi - At least 11 people have been killed, 80 were injured and nearly 50 000 were affected as severe storms swept over Malawi over the past couple of weeks, the country’s Department of Disaster Management Affairs (DoDMA) reports. DoDMA reported on December 3 that storms, hail, heavy rainfall, and lightning had caused widespread destruction in parts of the country. The agency documented 11 fatalities, with 8 caused by lightning strikes and 3 due to collapsing walls and roofs. A total of 10 833 households, approximately 48 748 individuals, were affected, leading to extensive displacement. Most suffered harm due to lightning strikes and structural collapses, among those injured. Chipiliro Khamula, the spokesperson for DoDMA, shared during a press briefing in Lilongwe that the rains had damaged homes and schools, disrupting education in several areas. “We are trying all what we can to provide support to the affected families and individuals so that they should be safe before some heavy rains start coming again,” Khamula stated. Lightning killed 4 students and injured 2 others at a trading center 45 km (28 miles) north of Lilongwe on December 1. The students were attending secondary school when the tragic event occurred. The disaster is marked as one of the most severe lightning-related incidents during the 2024 rainy season.

Red wind warnings issued as Storm Darragh approaches Ireland and UK - Red wind warnings have been issued by the UK Met Office and Met Éireann as Storm Darragh approaches Ireland and the UK on December 6, 2024. Strong winds, heavy rainfall, and hazardous conditions produced by Darragh are predicted to last until December 8. Satellite image of Storm Darragh at 11:30 UTC on December 6, 2024. Darragh’s strengthening ahead of landfall, expected during the afternoon hours (LT) on December 6, has led to multiple Red, Amber, and Yellow warnings from Ireland’s Met Éireann and the UK’s Met Office. In Ireland, Clare, Donegal, Galway, Leitrim, Mayo, and Sligo counties are on Status Red wind warning. Extremely strong and gusty northwest winds are expected to reach 145 km/h (90 mph) from 22:00 UTC on December 6 until around 02:00 UTC on December 7. Impacts expected include fallen trees and damage to power lines, dangerous traveling conditions, structural damage to temporary structures, and wave overtopping. Orange wind warnings were issued for Cavan, Connacht, Leinster, Monaghan, and Munster, while Yellow warnings for wind and rain throughout, leading to flooding in low-lying urban areas. Coastal areas and the Irish Sea are under Yellow warnings, with rough seas and strong gusts continuing through December 8.

M7.0 earthquake hits near Northern California coast, Tsunami Warning issued for California and Oregon - A very strong and shallow earthquake registered by the USGS as M7.0 hit near the coast of Northern California at 18:44 UTC (10:44 LT) on December 5, 2024. The agency is reporting a shallow depth of 0.6 km (0.4 miles). A Tsunami Warning was issued for parts of California and Oregon along the U.S. West Coast. The epicenter was located about 93 km (57 miles) W of Petrolia, 99 km (62 miles) WSW of Ferndale, and 108 km (67 miles) WSW of Fortuna, California. The Pacific Tsunami Warning Center (PTWC) has issued a tsunami warning for parts of California and Oregon along the U.S. West Coast, with the potential for tsunami waves in these regions. In California, the warning applies to the coastline stretching from Davenport, located approximately 16 km (10 miles) northwest of Santa Cruz, to the California-Oregon border. This includes the San Francisco Bay area, where residents and authorities are advised to remain alert and take necessary precautions. In Oregon, the affected area spans from the California-Oregon border to the Douglas/Lane county line, which is about 16 km (10 miles) southwest of Florence. Coastal communities within these regions should monitor updates and follow guidance from local emergency management agencies. The tsunami danger level for other parts of the U.S. and Canadian Pacific coasts in North America is still under evaluation. Additional information and updates will be provided in supplementary messages as more details become available.

Sundhnúkur crater row eruption now second largest since 2023, Iceland - The eruption that started on November 20, 2024, at the Sundhnúks crater row near Grindavik, Reykjanes Penisula, Iceland is now the second largest in the volume of the eruptions that have occurred in the Sundhnúks crater row since December 2023. (Photo taken at 10:10 LT on November 29, 2024 from the IMO's webcam, installed on November 28 on the western side of Fagradalsfjall, facing northwest towards the active vent and the lava river flowing southeast. Image credit: IMO) The lava flow that has flowed west from the center of the craters has stopped and cooled on the surface, the Icelandic Met Office (IMO) specialists noted early November 30. “Lava flow can still be expected to continue below the surface towards the defenses at Svartsengi and Blue Lagoon. The northernmost crater is now the only active crater and from it the main lava flow now runs southeast towards Fagradalsfjall.” The sulfur dioxide (SO2) emission rate, measured on November 28, ranged between 64 and 71 kg/s (141 to 156 pounds/s) creating harmful gas pollution along with hiking trails near the eruption site. Dispersal forecasts predict that wind patterns will direct pollution southwest towards Grindavik. The Icelandic Meteorological Office (IMO) reported consistent magma inflow beneath Svartsengi contributing to steady volcanic activity on November 29. Lava from the active vent was moving southeast toward Fagradalsfjall. Deformation measurements in the Svartsengi area show minor daily changes, with magma inflow into the accumulation zone aligning with the observed outflow. Lava flow between November 23 and 28 averaged 11 m3/s (388 feet3/s) This rate decreased to approximately 5 to 10 m3/s (176 to 353 feet3/s). Aerial surveys by the Icelandic Institute of Natural History on November 28 confirmed that the lava field from this eruption now exceeds 9.1 km2 (3.5 mi2) with an average thickness of more than 5 m (16.4 feet). The current eruption, ongoing since November 20, has a volume of about 47 million m3 (1.66 billion feet3), surpassing the May-June eruption’s volume of 45 million m3 (1.59 billion feet3) and making it the second largest since December 2023. The largest eruption in the crater row’s history remains the one between August 22 and September 5, 2024, resulting in a lava volume of 61 million m3 (2.15 billion cubic feet) over 15 days.

Asteroid 2024 XA flew past Earth at 0.02 LD, the closest flyby of the year and second closest on record - A newly discovered asteroid designated 2024 XA flew past Earth at 0.02 LD / 0.00005 AU (7 726 km / 4 801 miles) from the center of our planet at 09:46 UTC on December 1, 2024. This is about 1 355 km (842 miles) above the surface, making it the closest asteroid flyby of the year and the second closest on record. Asteroid 2024 XA was first observed at Catalina Sky Survey, Arizona at 04:58 UTC today – approximately 5 hours before the flyby. This is the 123rd known asteroid to fly past Earth within 1 lunar distance since the start of the year and the closest of the year. This is also the second closest asteroid flyby on record (since 1900), after 2020 VT4 on November 13, 2020. It flew past us about 1 355 km (842 miles) above the surface — well below the geostationary orbit altitude of 35 786 km (22 236 miles), where satellites responsible for global communications, weather monitoring, and navigation maintain orbit synchronized with Earth’s rotation. This object belongs to the Apollo group of asteroids and has an estimated diameter between 1.3 and 2.8 m (4.2 – 9.2 feet). Its next close approach to Earth will take place on April 18, 2041, at a distance of about 0.04 AU (17 LD). asteroid 2024 xa orbit diagram december 1 2024 Image credit: CNEOS asteroid 2024 xa orbit diagram z december 1 2024 Image credit: CNEOS asteroid 2024 xa orbit diagram z2 december 1 2024

Aramco, SLB, and Linde to Develop Major Carbon Capture Project in Saudi Arabia (Reuters) — Saudi oil giant Aramco, top oilfield services company SLB and Linde, the world's largest industrial gases company, have signed an agreement to build a carbon capture and storage project in Jubail, Saudi Arabia. Aramco will own 60% of the project while SLB and Linde will hold 20% each, the companies said in a joint statement on Wednesday. The first phase is expected to be complete by the end of 2027, capturing and storing up to 9 million metric tons of carbon dioxide a year. The project is intended to help Aramco to reach its target of net zero emissions from its operations by 2050. Saudi Arabia has a net zero target of 2060. Captured carbon dioxide will be transported through pipelines to be stored below ground in a saline aquifer sink. The three companies signed a preliminary agreement on the project in November 2022.

Wolf Carbon Solutions withdraws petition to build a pipeline in Iowa - Wolf Carbon Solutions is withdrawing its petition to build a 95-mile carbon capture pipeline through eastern Iowa, according to a filing Monday with the Iowa Utilities Commission.Wolf planned to capture carbon dioxide emissions at Archer Daniel Midland Co. ethanol plants in Cedar Rapids and Clinton, liquefy it under pressure and transport it to Illinois to be sequestered deep underground.It’s unclear whether the Colorado-based company will reapply, saying in the filing it would “make a determination” once “more certainty exists concerning its plans to proceed.” The company, working in partnership with ADM on the project, didn't immediately respond to a request for comment Monday. Wolf sought a permit last year to build the hazardous liquid pipeline across Linn, Cedar, Clinton and Scott counties. But the company said in its filing that continuing to pursue a permit wasn’t an efficient use of Iowa regulators’ resources.“While Wolf has continued to build relationships with landowners and stakeholders interested in the project, a number of factors have continued to delay Wolf’s ability to proceed,” the company said. “And Wolf has decided to cease pursuit of the required regulatory approvals at this time.”It’s the second company to withdraw its petition to build a carbon capture pipeline. Last year, Navigator CO2 Ventures permanently withdrew its plans to build a $3.5 billion carbon capture pipeline after running into regulatory and legislative challenges in Iowa, South Dakota and elsewhere.Summit Carbon Solutions, however, continues to move forward with plans to build an $8 billion carbon capture pipeline across Iowa and four other states. It's now working with ethanol producers that had planned to partner with Navigator CO2 Ventures.Summit won regulatory approval to build its pipeline across Iowa in June, and last month, the company received the regulatory nod in North Dakota, where it plans to sequester its carbon.

PA Gov. Shapiro’s DEP Blows $600,000 on “Enviro Justice” Grants -- Marcellus Drilling News - Every budget season in Pennsylvania, it’s the same old dog-and-pony show by the PA Department of Environmental Protection (DEP). “We don’t have enough money to pay our staff,” and “We aren’t making as much money from (insanely high) shale permit fees anymore, so we need more taxpayer money to make up the difference.” Etc. Yet a few months later, after the budget is adopted, the DEP somehow finds money lying around to donate to various leftwing causes. Case in point: The DEP announced yesterday it is donating $600,000 to 12 leftist organizations to spread more wokeness across the Commonwealth under the banner of “environmental justice” (EJ).

Climate-friendly farming: Scientists find feeding grazing cattle seaweed cuts methane emissions by almost 40% -- Seaweed is once again showing promise for making cattle farming more sustainable. A study by researchers at the University of California, Davis, found that feeding grazing beef cattle a seaweed supplement in pellet form reduced their methane emissions by almost 40% without affecting their health or weight.The study was published Dec. 2 in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.This is the first study to test seaweed on grazing beef cattle in the world. It follows previous studies that showed seaweed cut methane emissions 82% in feedlot cattle and over 50% in dairy cows. Livestock accounts for 14.5% of global greenhouse gas emissions, with the largest portion coming from methane that cattle release when they burp. Grazing cattle also produce more methane than feedlot cattle or dairy cows because they eat more fiber from grass. In the U.S., there are 9 million dairy cows and over 64 million beef cattle. "Beef cattle spend only about three months in feedlots and spend most of their lives grazing on pasture and producing methane," said senior author Ermias Kebreab, professor in the Department of Animal Science. "We need to make this seaweed additive or any feed additive more accessible to grazing cattle to make cattle farming more sustainable while meeting the global demand for meat."Kebreab said that daily feeding of pasture-based cattle is more difficult than feedlot or dairy cows because they often graze far from ranches for long periods. However, during the winter or when grass is scarce, ranchers often supplement their diet. Researchers conducted the 10-week experiment at a ranch in Dillon, Montana. Since these were grazing cattle, they ate the supplement voluntarily, which still resulted in a nearly 40% cut in emissions. Most research to reduce methane emissions using feed additives has taken place in controlled environments with daily supplements. But Kebreab noted in the study that fewer than half of those methods are effective for grazing cattle. "This method paves the way to make a seaweed supplement easily available to grazing animals," said Kebreab. "Ranchers could even introduce the seaweed through a lick block for their cattle."

Ohio facility that would turn manure, food waste into natural gas causes stink among neighbors - — One central Ohio community is coming out against a big project. They say people have pulled out of buying houses in the area and others may consider leaving if the project moves forward. That project: a system that will convert cow manure and food waste to renewable natural gas. Area commissioners and townships have signed legislation against it and the project has a petition with hundreds of signatures against it. However, because of a zoning law technicality, the community may not be able to stop it and right now there’s nothing to stop it in your neighborhood either. Nichole Henthorn and her husband, Brent, have lived in the West Jefferson area for a decade. It’s their safe space, but some big plans nearby might change that. “I was very much astonished,” Angie Carpenter, who has lived in the area for 57 years said. Right now, the plan is for a company to come in and build a biodigester near these neighbors. “They’re normally on rural dairy farms and we’ve been here 25 years. I’ve never seen one cow across the street,” said Steve Dersom. A biodigester makes renewable energy. It takes food and animal waste, breaks it down and turns it into biogas, filled with methane. “If this were on a farm that was 400 acres, that was supported by cows, and they were out in the middle of nowhere, we would not be here right now,” Carpenter said. Vanguard Renewables is the Massachusetts company planning to build the biodigester in Madison County, just over 20 miles from Columbus. NBC4 Investigates found that in Massachusetts, one Vanguard biodigester was fined almost $78,000 in 2022 for environmental violations that impact public health. Another was fined more than $7,000 for exceeding emission limits. “I think the location they picked, most people can immediately see it’s laughably bad. I mean, 50 feet from a bike path, right at the head of a trail,” Madison County commissioner-elect Brendan Shea said. Vanguards’ website lists six other projects in Massachusetts and Vermont. Each one is on a farm with cows, something the Madison County site does not have. Manure would have to be trucked in. It’s also a lot smaller of a space; the completed projects range from around 450 acres to 1,000 acres. The Madison County project would sit on just over 90. “It was hard to understand why they would put it in proximity to our residential homes,” Henthorn said. The zoning laws in place have let this project go ahead without weighing community input despite the Madison County board of commissioners and every single township in the area coming out against it. “I know how protective our community is over our natural resources,” Carpenter said. The area of land in Madison County is zoned for agricultural use. The farmer who owns it leased it to Vanguard for the biodigester; however, construction has not yet started. The county says Vanguard has two possible plans right now: installing natural gas lines to get the gas out or trucking the gas out. If Vanguard uses gas lines, that follows the area zoning laws and the project can move ahead. Right now, state legislation to address this is unlikely to pass before the end of the year and there are no other regulations. The neighbors want this project regulated like solar projects, which have a variety of legislation including giving local governments more power with restrictions.

Republicans mull fate of DOE loan program - Republican control of Congress next year could spell trouble — or even doom — for a Department of Energy office that has doled out billions to stand up clean energy projects across the country.Top Republican energy lawmakers interviewed by POLITICO’s E&E News said they see DOE’s Loan Programs Office as a prime target for President-elect Donald Trump’s plan to cut costs and increase “efficiency” across federal agencies. “Especially with the Department of Energy, you want to have government efficiency,” said Rep. Bob Latta (R-Ohio), a candidate to run the Energy and Commerce Committee next year. “I think the Loan Programs Office and everything can be really scrutinized, because we’re 36 trillion in the hole,” he added, referencing the U.S. national debt. The LPO was established in 2005 to provide funding for emerging energy technologies that have difficulty attracting private capital. Buoyed by an unprecedented boost in funding provided by the Inflation Reduction Act, the office has announced roughly $37 billion in loans or loan guarantees for a host of promising clean energy projects during President Joe Biden’s tenure. It has finalized financing for 12 of them, worth roughly $12 billion.It’s unclear how hard Republicans will push on making big changes to the loan office. Some want to see a complete teardown, while others think its portfolio could be adjusted to focus on Republican-favored energy sources like nuclear, geothermal or even fossil fuel projects. Others say Republicans should tread carefully on big cuts.Ahead of the election, the Heritage Foundation’s Project 2025, a blueprint for the next Republican president, said the loan office should be “eliminated or reformed.”Republicans now say they’ll be paying particular attention to Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy’s so-called Department of Government Efficiency, or DOGE, to see what particular programs, like the LPO, may be ripe for cuts.“I think [Elon] needs to start getting in and looking at these things, especially at the LPO,” said Latta. “I think it’s good to have somebody outside of government, because … we’re in very deep trouble when it comes to government spending.”Republican lawmakers are already meeting with team members behind the external efficiency panel and are forming their own DOGE congressional caucuses to advance the effort.Incoming Senate Energy and Natural Resources Chair Mike Lee (R-Utah) counts himself as a member of the Senate DOGE caucus. He’s already been active engaging with Musk on X in several posts criticizing government overreach and spending.“Federal spending doesn’t offset the tax burden,” Lee said on X responding to a separate Musk post. “Federal spending is itself a massive tax.”

'Realistic' green policies good for the U.S., Aramco CEO says, with Trump to return to White House - "Realistic" green transition standards will benefit the U.S. energy industry, the CEO of the world's largest oil producer said Tuesday, as the White House prepares to welcome President-elect Donald Trump in January.Asked to comment on the possibility of a U.S. administration that views hydrocarbons more favorably, Saudi state-controlled Aramco CEO Amin Nasser said, "I think you know, policy makers definitely will help with their policies and standards ... the energy to expand. That's why, you know, I think it's always good for the industry in the U.S. to have more realistic standards for them to achieve their goals."He was speaking at a panel moderated by CNBC's Dan Murphy during the Saudi Green Initiative Forum in Riyadh.Aramco — aligned with the broader Saudi ministry and with several of Riyadh's allies in the OPEC+ oil producers' coalition — has repeatedly advocated an approach to the global energy transition that still utilizes fossil fuels amid the growth of renewables, in a bid to avoid supply shortages. Critics have meanwhile questioned Riyadh's commitment to the fight against global warming.Aramco itself aims to achieve net-zero Scope 1 and Scope 2 greenhouse gas emissions across its assets by 2050 and pausedlong-touted plans to increase its maximum oil production capacity earlier this year. Scope 1 and 2 emissions cover direct and indirect emissions from sources that a company owns and controls or from its purchases and uses."I think the unrealistic views you know, when you look at the transition and policy makers, you know, always they would like to achieve a speedy transition, they put [out] certain mandates," Nasser said Tuesday. "But mandates or policies will not take care of the economics."Questions linger whether hydrogen, a nascent source of renewable energy, is economically viable for mass consumption — although production costs are projected to decline within years. Trump has meanwhile previously denounced hydrogen-fueled vehicles, claiming they "tend to blow up."

China bans exports to US of gallium and other key high-tech materials in response to chip sanctions (AP) — China announced Tuesday it is banning exports to the United States of gallium, germanium, antimony and other key high-tech materials with potential military applications, as a general principle, lashing back at U.S. limits on semiconductor-related exports. The Chinese Commerce Ministry announced the move after the Washington expanded its list of Chinese companies subject to export controls on computer chip-making equipment, software and high-bandwidth memory chips. Such chips are needed for advanced applications. The ratcheting up of trade restrictions comes as President-elect Donald Trump has been threatening to sharply raise tariffs on imports from China and other countries, potentially intensifying simmering tensions over trade and technology. China’s Foreign Ministry also issued a vehement reproof. “China has lodged stern protests with the U.S. for its update of the semiconductor export control measures, sanctions against Chinese companies, and malicious suppression of China’s technological progress,” Lin Jian, a Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson, said in a routine briefing Tuesday. “I want to reiterate that China firmly opposes the U.S. overstretching the concept of national security, abuse of export control measures, and illegal unilateral sanctions and long-arm jurisdiction against Chinese companies,” Lin said. The minerals sourced in China are used in computer chips, cars and other products China said in July 2023 it would require exporters to apply for licenses to send to the U.S. the strategically important materials such as gallium and germanium. In August, the Chinese Commerce Ministry said it would restrict exports of antimony, which is used in a wide range of products from batteries to weapons, and impose tighter controls on exports of graphite. Such minerals are considered critical for national security. China is a major producer of antimony, which is used in flame retardants, batteries, night-vision goggles and nuclear weapon production, according to a 2021 U.S. International Trade Commission report. The limits announced by Beijing on Tuesday also include exports of super-hard materials, such as diamonds and other synthetic materials that are not compressible and extremely dense. They are used in many industrial areas such as cutting tools, disc brakes and protective coatings. The licensing requirements that China announced in August also covered smelting and separation technology and machinery and other items related to such super-hard materials. China is the biggest global source of gallium and germanium, which are produced in small amounts but are needed to make computer chips for mobile phones, cars and other products, as well as solar panels and military technology.

Norway hits pause on controversial deep-sea mining plans -Norway has shelved plans to open a vast ocean area at the bottom of the Arctic for commercial-scale deep-sea mining.The decision, which was confirmed late Sunday, comes after the country's Socialist Left Party said it would not support the minority government's budget unless it dropped the first licensing round for mineral activities, initially scheduled for the first half of next year.Environmental campaigners welcomed the agreement as a "huge win" and "a monumental victory for the ocean."Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre described the move as a "postponement," Reuters reported Sunday, citing comments delivered to private broadcaster TV2.Støre leads Norway's center-left Labor Party, which is the senior party in a minority government coalition with the Center Party. "Our policy is unchanged. The budget agreement is a political compromise that does not affect the legal foundation or strategy for seabed minerals," Astrid Bergmål, state secretary at Norway's energy ministry, told CNBC via email. "The agreement means that the first licensing round can be announced in the next parliamentary term. Until then, we will use that time to continue research and finalize regulations," Bergmål said. The planned licensing round only applies to exploration activities, Bergmål added, noting that "it must be shown that the proposed exploitation can take place in a sustainable and responsible manner" before any such work can begin.

Vision RNG Inks Landfill Gas Agreement in South Carolina - Vision RNG plans to transform Greenwood County South Carolina landfill gas into renewable natural gas (RNG) or power after sealing a long-term gas rights agreement with the county. The Pennsylvania-based landfill gas and RNG developer said Dec. 2 the agreement to purchase raw landfill gas could last up to 25 years. Plans are to spend the next 12 months working with county and landfill personnel to optimize the existing gas collection and control system to determine the amount of gas available, Vision RNG said in a news release. The evaluation will determine whether the landfill could support RNG production or a power project. “As our portfolio of landfill gas projects continues to expand, we are making a real impact on reducing methane emissions, capturing that wasted greenhouse gas and putting it to good use,” Vision RNG CEO Bill Johnson said. If the developer produces RNG, the gas will be used as transportation fuel and for other sustainable purchases across the U.S., the company said. If power is produced from the landfill gas, Vision RNG said it will be sold to the local grid operator. “By capturing methane from our landfill and converting it into renewable energy, we are taking meaningful action that makes sense both environmentally and economically,” Greenwood County Council Chairman Chuck Moates said.

Wyoming Sues Huge Investors For Pushing “Climate Activist Agenda” To Kill Coal | Cowboy State Daily - Wyoming and Montana join a lawsuit accusing three investment firms of following a “climate activist agenda” by colluding to acquire large stakes in publicly held coal companies and forcing the firms to slash Powder River Basin mine production.

Indiana, PA Converting Coal Power Plant to Massive New Gas Plant --- Marcellus Drilling News - What was Pennsylvania’s largest coal-fired power plant, the Homer City Generating Station, located in Center Township, Indiana County, PA, shut down operations in July 2023. In its heyday, the massive plant produced 1,888 megawatts of electricity (nearly 2 GW). Demolition of the old plant and construction of a new gas-fired power plant are about to begin. According to a former county commissioner who now works for the project, the new gas-fired plant will produce “at least double” the energy it produced with coal. That would make it as big (possibly bigger) than the current largest gas-fired power plant in the country! The West County Energy Center in Palm Beach County, Florida, produces 3,777 MW of electricity and is the country’s largest gas-fired plant. Homer City may well exceed it.

87-year-old woman killed in home explosion; construction crews ruptured gas line nearby - - The burnt sidings and windows of a home on Avondale Garden Road and 4th Street in Louisiana are all that remain after the house exploded Monday morning. The Jefferson Parish Coroner’s Office confirmed that 87-year-old Deloris Gabriel died in her home and family members say five loved ones are in the hospital with injuries. “I heard the explosion and I turned and my door was still open. I looked toward my cousin’s and her house had blown up. We couldn’t get her out,” cousin Adrienne Gabriel said. The sheriff’s office did not give any updates on how Deloris Gabriel’s relatives are doing after the fire, but Adrienne Gabriel confirmed that the 87-year-old’s son, daughter, son-in-law, 4-year-old granddaughter and 7-year-old grandson were all injured in the incident. “It’s difficult because I’m sure they heard the explosion, and to lose a family member in that, it’s a very difficult moment for us,” Jefferson Parish President Cynthia Lee Sheng said. Firefighters were originally called to the neighborhood around 5:15 a.m. after calls that a concrete truck ruptured a gas line near a construction site on Avondale Garden Road and U.S. Route 90. Firefighters and Atmos Energy were on the scene trying to secure the leak when the sheriff’s office says Deloris Gabriel’s home burst into flames at around 6:30 a.m. Robertson added that local investigators and the State Fire Marshal are looking into what sparked the explosion and how the house caught on fire.

Utica oil: America's modest middleweight contender – Enverus - (Dec. 4, 2024) — Enverus Intelligence® Research (EIR), a subsidiary of Enverus, the most trusted energy-dedicated SaaS company that leverages generative AI across its solutions, has released a new analysis of recent well performance and economics in the Utica shale and how it compares to other U.S. oil plays.“A relatively small and consistent proven fairway for Utica oil achieves economics that rank below the Midland, Delaware and Denver-Julesburg (DJ) but above the Bakken and Eagle Ford,” said Mah Noor Imtiaz, an associate at EIR. “Recent Utica oil wells have production rates similar to those in the Delaware, though with longer laterals. While the longer laterals reduce per-foot costs, steep declines lead to lower per-foot oil recoveries than the Permian play,” Imtiaz said. Key takeaways from the report:

• Recent wells targeting the oil-rich portion of the Utica shale in Ohio generate breakevens competitive with those in the Bakken and Eagle Ford plays, though less economic than wells in the Midland, Delaware and DJ Basins.
• These Utica oil wells achieve production rates over their first six months comparable to the Delaware Basin in Texas and New Mexico, one of the most lucrative oil-producing areas in the U.S. However, this production is achieved with lateral lengths that are 55% longer than those in the Delaware.
• Utica operators are drilling step-out locations to the north, west and south of the main fairway to extend the economic potential of the Utica oil play. The competitive economics of wells to date support continued delineation.

EIR’s analysis pulls from a variety of Enverus products including Enverus Activity Analytics, Enverus Forecast Analytics,Enverus Foundations® and Enverus M&A. View Report Here

Utica Play Economics Are Middleweight, Enverus Says -The Utica shale in Ohio is not the best U.S. oil play and not the worst. It's right there in the middle, Enverus Intelligence Research said in a report.According to a new well performance analysis, the Utica’s economics demonstrate “competitiveness” with established oil plays in the Lower 48, Enverus reported."A relatively small and consistent proven fairway for Utica oil achieves economics that rank below the Midland, Delaware and Denver-Julesburg but above the Bakken and Eagle Ford,” said Mah Noor Imtiaz, an associate at Enverus. Recent wells in the Utica need longer laterals to achieve production rates in the first six months comparable to those in the Delaware Basin in Texas and New Mexico, Enverus said. Operators are drilling step-out wells around the main part of the Utica that may extend the play.

Austin Master Services Cleanup in Martins Ferry One-Third Complete ---Marcellus Drilling News -- - In July, the Ohio Dept. of Natural Resources (ODNR) opened up the shuttered Austin Master Services (AMS) radiological waste management solutions company in Martins Ferry (Belmont County), Ohio, to begin cleanup work at the facility (seeFlurry of Activity at Austin Master Services Site in Martins Ferry). AMS is permitted by the ODNR to temporarily store up to 600 tons of fracking waste, like shale drill cuttings and wastewater. ODNR estimates there were some 10,000 tons of fracking waste at the site. AMS ran out of money, and vendors quit accepting the waste. After failing to meet a court-ordered deadline, ODNR stepped in to handle the cleanup. A local TV station is reporting one-third of the cleanup job is now completed. The facility is supposed to be completely cleaned up by May 2025.

Little-Discussed Infinity Natural Res. Ohio Utica’s #3 Oil Producer - - --Marcellus Drilling News -- In early October, Infinity Natural Resources (INR), with 90,000 acres in the Marcellus/Utica, filed an IPO with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), hoping to raise $100 million (see M-U Driller Infinity Natural Resources Files for $100 Million IPO). We haven’t written much about INR, a company founded in 2017 and headquartered in Morgantown, WV, simply because we haven’t seen a whole lot of mentions in the media. However, here’s a fascinating fact: INR is the third largest producer of oil in the Ohio Utica, behind Encino (#1) and Ascent Resources (#2).

CNX Resources Buys Apex Energy for $505M, Adds Pa. M-U Assets -- Marcellus Drilling News - December 6, 2024 - CNX Resources announced yesterday it had struck a deal to buy the assets of Apex Energy II, LLC, a portfolio company of funds managed by Carnelian Energy Capital Management, for $505 million. Apex owns wells, acreage, and pipelines in Westmoreland County, PA. The Apex assets are close to, in some cases adjacent to, CNX’s considerable assets in the region. The deal is expected to close in the first quarter of 2025.

CNX to buy Apex Energy for $505 million, expanding Westmoreland County presence -- Cecil-based CNX Resources Corp. struck a deal to add more wells and leases to its portfolio in Westmoreland County, where the natural gas driller is taking the lead in Utica Shale development. The company announced it will acquire Apex Energy II LLC for $505 million in a deal that will add 36,000 underground acres in western Westmoreland County, some with already operating wells and others yet undeveloped. Pine-based Apex was founded in 2013 with private equity firm Apollo Global Management, but its current majority investor is Carnelian Energy Capital. The company is selling all of its operations to CNX, a spokesman for CNX confirmed, which includes unspecified pipelines and midstream infrastructure. According to the Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection, Apex operates about 50 wells, all in Westmoreland County. Their production will boost CNX’s by about 12%. In announcing the deal, CNX’s CEO Nick DeIullis said it was a reflection of the company’s confidence in the opportunities that exist in this part of the state to draw gas from both the Marcellus Shale and the deeper Utica Shale The Utica is a reservoir that sits more than 2 miles below the surface in Westmoreland County. Its depth makes it more expensive to develop, but in its most recent call with investors CNX executives said given how much gas its Utica wells have been producing, they are now cost competitive with shallower Marcellus Shale wells.CNX said it expects the deal to close during the first quarter of next year.

CNX's $505MM Bolt-On Adds Marcellus, Deep Utica in Pennsylvania --CNX Resources will buy the upstream and midstream Appalachian Basin assets ofCarnelian Energy Capital Management-backed Apex Energy II for $505 million, the company said Dec. 5. CNX entered into a definitive agreement to acquire Apex’s assets, including 36,000 total net acres (94% held) in Westmoreland County, Pennsylvania. The deal includes 21,000 undeveloped acres—8,600 acres in the Utica Shale and 12,600 in the Marcellus Shale.CNX said the acquisition strategically expands its existing stacked Marcellus and Utica undeveloped leasehold in the region and provides an existing infrastructure footprint that can be leveraged for future development. The deal comes as natural gas prices continue to struggle but demand from LNG and data centers powergen is expected by analysts to recover in mid- to late-2025.Operational and other development synergies are expected to add incremental value to the core business in the coming years, the company said."This transaction represents a rare opportunity to acquire a highly complementary asset adjacent to our existing operations,” CNX President and CEO Nick Deluliis said. “It underscores our confidence in the stacked pay development opportunities that have been unlocked from pioneering the deep Utica in this region."CNX said the acquisition would be “immediately accretive” to its free cash flow per share.“The attractive acquisition price and free cash flow profile of the assets allows the company to maintain its strong balance sheet and preserve significant capital allocation flexibility moving forward,” the company said.The deal adds a fully integrated gathering midstream. CNX expects 2025 operating costs of approximately $0.16/Mcfe on the acquired assets. The existing infrastructure can be leveraged for future stacked pay development of the Marcellus and Utica, the company said.For 2025, CNX said it expects daily 2025 production to average 180 MMcfe/d to 190 MMcfe/d. At recent strip prices, it projected 2025 EBITDA of $150 million to $160 million.Apex is the second Carnelian Energy Capital Management-backed company to be sold this week following Crescent Energy’s agreement to acquire Eagle Ford assetsfrom Carnelian-backed Ridgemar Energy for $905 million.The Apex transaction will be funded through CNX’s secured credit facility. In May, CNX amended its secured credit facilities, extending the maturities to May 2029 and increasing the total elected commitment amounts to $2 billion. As of Sept. 30, CNX had approximately $1.8 billion of available borrowing capacity under the secured credit facilities.The deal, subject to certain adjustments, has an effective date of Oct. 1, 2024.The deal is expected to close in first-quarter 2025.

Antis Seek to Ban All Fracking in Allegheny County, PA - Marcellus Drilling News - They never, ever give up. And neither should we. The “they” we’re speaking of are irrational anti-fossil fuel zealots. The Allegheny County Board of Health, a nine-member governing board appointed by the County Chief Executive, held a meeting yesterday to discuss air permits. Attending the meeting were anti-fossil fuel zealots making a pitch to the board to support a ban on fracking new wells throughout the entire county. The zealots trotted out the same tired old lies—that fracking causes cancer.

28 New Shale Well Permits Issued for PA-OH-WV Nov 18 – 24 - --Marcellus Drilling News -- For the week of Nov 18 – 24, permits issued in the Marcellus/Utica continued to be strong, with 28 new permits issued, down just two from the 30 issued the prior week. The Keystone State (PA) issued 11 new permits, with five going to CNX Resources, all in Allegheny County. Two permits were issued to Southwestern Energy (now Expand Energy) in Lycoming County. The remaining four were single permits issued to EQT Corporation (Greene County), Infinity Natural Resources (Indiana County), Range Resources (Washington County), and Apex Energy (Westmoreland County). ALLEGHENY COUNTY | ANTERO RESOURCES | APEX ENERGY | ASCENT RESOURCES | CARROLL COUNTY | CNX RESOURCES | ENCINO ENERGY | EOG RESOURCES | EQT CORP | GREENE COUNTY (PA) | HARRISON COUNTY | INDIANA COUNTY | INR/INFINITY NATURAL RESOURCES |LYCOMING COUNTY | MARSHALL COUNTY | NOBLE COUNTY | OHIO COUNTY | RANGE RESOURCES CORP | SOUTHWESTERN ENERGY |TYLER COUNTY | WASHINGTON COUNTY | WESTMORELAND COUNTY

12 New Shale Well Permits Issued for PA-OH-WV Nov 25 – Dec 1 - Marcellus Drilling News - For the week of Nov 25 – Dec 1, permits issued in the Marcellus/Utica dropped dramatically. Only 12 new permits were issued last week, less than half the 28 issued the week before. The Keystone State (PA) issued just two new permits, one to EQT in Greene County and the other to Range Resources in Washington County. The Buckeye State (OH) issued six new permits last week. All six went to Encino Energy (EAP), with four in Carroll County and two in Columbiana County. The Mountain State (WV) issued four new permits, three of which went to Southwestern Energy (now Expand Energy) in Ohio County and one to Antero Resources in Tyler County. ANTERO RESOURCES | CARROLL COUNTY | COLUMBIANA COUNTY | ENCINO ENERGY | ENERGY COMPANIES | EQT CORP | GREENE COUNTY (PA) | OHIO COUNTY | RANGE RESOURCES CORP | SOUTHWESTERN ENERGY | TYLER COUNTY | WASHINGTON COUNTY

More Than $40 Million Remains Unclaimed in PA Well-Plugging Grants -- Marcellus Drilling News --Come and get it! Only ten companies have applied to plug 77 orphaned wells in Pennsylvania as part of $44.4 million allocated for PA’s Methane Emissions Reduction Program (MERP) grant program. By our calculations, more than $41 million remains in the pot unclaimed. However, the clock is ticking. There is a Dec. 16 deadline to meet if you want some of the money. Use it or lose it. What are you waiting for?

WV Supreme Court Rules Antero CAN’T Deduct Royalty Expenses -- Marcellus Drilling News - There is an important development for landowners AND drillers in a class action case that began some seven years ago. A civil suit was brought by Harrison County oil and gas owners against Antero Resources Corp., claiming the company had deducted post-production costs from royalties not allowed under the leases they had signed. In 2022, the U.S. District Court for the Northern District of West Virginia ruled mostly in favor of the landowners. The District Court sent two certified questions to the state Supreme Court. The Supremes ruled on both issues in November. The court ruled that energy companies cannot deduct post-production costs without explicit lease language, favoring royalty owners over drillers.

Mountain Valley Pipeline’s Final Cost Pegged at Nearly $10 Billion --Marcellus Drilling News -- When EQT first announced it intended to build the Mountain Valley Pipeline (MVP), stretching from Wetzel County, WV, to Pittsylvania County, VA, the project came with an estimated price tag of $3.5 billion and an estimated completion date of 2018 (see Mountain Valley Pipeline Files FERC Appl, Now Just Matter of Time). By the time it finally began operating earlier this year (10 years later!), the estimated cost had risen to $7.85 billion (see Confirmed: M-U Gas Now Flowing Through Mountain Valley Pipeline). Except, that number was not the true final cost either. According to a recent filing with the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC), the final cost to build MVP was $9.67 billion.

Golden Triangle Storage Launches 14 Bcf Expansion as LNG, Gulf Coast Demand Drives Salt Cavern Interest - A unit of Houston-based Caliche Development Partners LLC disclosed earlier in the month that the firm and its partners reached a final investment decision (FID) on the estimated $500 million Golden Triangle Storage expansion project. Sited southeast of Houston, near the developing Golden Pass LNG project, the expansion consists of two new salt caverns and related facilities connected to the existing Beaumont area storage installation that would add 14 Bcf in capacity. The expansion project is aimed to double Golden Triangle Storage capacity to 28 Bcf over the next three years, allowing for more market optionality between the seven major pipeline connections the facility serves. Cavern 3 is expected to enter service by the second quarter of 2026, followed by Cavern 4 in 2Q2027.

FERC Reviews CP2 LNG, Pipeline Project Authorizations Ahead of DC Circuit Challenge by Environmental Groups --FERC moved to conduct additional review of Venture Global LNG Inc.’s proposed CP2 LNG and CP Express Pipeline projects as the Commission looks to shore up its authorization order against heightened scrutiny from the U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit. In a stealth move over the Thanksgiving holiday weekend, the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission released a series of orders disclosing it planned to exercise its ability to modify an order challenged in an appeals court, as long as it has not yet been made an official part of the record (Nos. CP22-21-001, CP22-22-001). In the order, Commission staff wrote that the move would allow the agency to take a deeper look at cumulative air quality impacts ”for the purpose of conducting additional environmental review in light of an opinion issued” by the DC Circuit. It specifically mentioned a review of nitrogen dioxide (NO2) emissions in the order, a greenhouse gas that has been increasingly scrutinized in FERC authorization cases before the DC Circuit.

Inspector: Weak pipeline rules put ‘profit over safety’ - Steve Bromley spent years watching pipeline crews leave problem-plagued pipes in the ground. The former safety inspector, who quit in 2021, says oil and gas pipes were sometimes dented by rocks, with their protective coating peeling off and their walls rusted through. But when Bromley, a supporter of President-elect Donald Trump who calls himself “absolutely pro-pipeline,” eventually complained about it to federal regulators, they told him the companies weren’t violating any rules. Advertisement “Their paperwork was in order. That’s all they’ve got to look at,” Bromley said, later adding: “I know they’re in order, because I’m the one who puts them in order. It’s all swept under the rug.” Bromley’s experience illustrates the pitfalls of the way Congress directed the federal government to regulate pipelines, according to safety advocates. Under what is called “performance-based” regulation, companies draft their plans for meeting safety standards, which are approved by the federal Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration. Private inspectors — who work for contractors paid by pipeline companies — then check to see if they are following the plan. “The reality is that operators are inspecting their own systems,” said Bill Caram, executive director of the Pipeline Safety Trust, the country’s main pipeline safety advocacy group. “And PHMSA is largely going through paperwork exercises to make sure that they documented those inspections to the appropriate level.” Inspectors like Bromley rarely speak publicly about their jobs. In recent years, at least three other inspectors have lodged formal whistleblower allegations that they were fired for reporting dangerous problems on pipelines, and several inspectors told POLITICO’s E&E News earlier this year that their safety warnings are often ignored. Bromley also filed a whistleblower complaint, but it was dismissed.As Bromley speaks out, the country looks ahead to a possible boom in pipeline construction.Federal data shows 6,000 miles of pipelines for gas, oil and other liquids are on the drawing board or under construction right now. As many as 65,000 miles of carbon dioxide pipelines will be needed for the country to reach net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050, according to experts. And thousands of miles of pipeline could be needed if, as currently anticipated, U.S. liquefied natural gas exports double by 2028. The fossil fuel industry says the country’s performance-based approach to pipeline safety gives pipeline companies, who know their systems best, the flexibility they need to make their facilities safe. “Our industry is committed to its goal of operating with zero incidents through comprehensive management systems and programs,” Robin Rorick, vice president of midstream policy at the American Petroleum Institute, said in a statement emailed to E&E News. “We will continue to work with PHMSA and industry experts to help protect the environment and communities where we live and work.” A PHMSA official said pipeline companies are required by law “to assess (and reassess) their systems on an ongoing basis to identify safety risks.” The agency has a long-standing policy against attributing remarks to staff members. “They must also maintain detailed records, accessible to PHMSA inspectors,” the official said in a statement to E&E News, “and those records need to justify operator claims as well as be subject to ongoing PHMSA oversight.” Congress is currently working on reauthorizing the nation’s pipeline safety laws. So far, lawmakers are focused on speeding up permitting for new pipelines — and are not revisiting the performance-based aspect of regulation. But PHMSA is currently changing its regulations to strengthen leak detection requirements, the agency official said. The final rule could be published as early as January. The official also pointed out that PHMSA enforcement fines have increased in recent years, reaching an all-time high of $12.6 million last year. Trump has promised to dramatically reduce regulation of the pipeline and oil industries, and executives from those industries are among his top donors.

DOE LNG Permit Study Ready by ‘Mid-December,’ Biden Official Tells Congress - The Department of Energy’s (DOE) review of U.S. LNG exports to non-free trade agreement (NFTA) countries is expected to be released in the coming weeks, according to agency officials, as the incoming Trump administration promises an end to a related permit pause. Graph showing commercially advanced North American LNG projects impacted by the Biden administration's DOE review. DOE Assistant Secretary Brad Crabtree said Wednesday the results of its review into the long-term economic and environmental impacts from global U.S. LNG exports should be published “by mid-December.” Biden administration officials had previously guided expectations to issue the study in early 2025. “By any measure, our LNG export posture is strong and will grow dramatically during the latter half of the decade, regardless of future export approvals,” Crabtree said during a House Oversight Subcommittee hearing. “With that context in mind, DOE needs to fully understand how additional authorized exports can impact our economy, community energy prices for domestic consumers and manufacturers, international partners and environment.”

Curbing Natural Gas Supply Chain Emissions Still Vital as Trump Takes Office, Lawmakers Say - The incoming Trump administration must reinforce U.S. efforts to limit greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) and press other nations to do the same in order to keep natural gas competitive as more buyers search for cleaner energy, government officials said at an industry conference in Washington, DC. (a chart breaking down average GHG emissions across fuel supply chains in Europe) U.S. natural gas producers and their counterparts across the supply chain have increasingly worked to track and abate GHG emissions. However, a lack of similar initiatives in other producing and consuming nations threatens to undermine those efforts. “It’s a global issue…We can’t do it alone,” said Rep. Jeff Duncan (R-SC). Duncan, who is retiring from Congress in January, said at the North American Gas Forum that the next Trump administration must find ways to influence other governments to reduce their emissions as they continue to grow.

Summit Midstream Completes Acquisition of Tall Oak Midstream III — Summit Midstream Corporation (SMC) has finalized its acquisition of Tall Oak Midstream III from Tailwater Capital. The deal includes cash, equity considerations, and potential contingent payments. This acquisition significantly boosts Summit’s natural gas portfolio, bringing its balance to about 50% natural gas-focused operations. Shareholders approved the acquisition during a virtual meeting, with nearly 77% participation and almost unanimous support. Summit’s leverage ratio, following this transaction, stands at approximately 3.8 times, as of Sept. 30. This move aligns with Summit’s strategy to enhance scale and creditworthiness while expanding its natural gas infrastructure.

U.S. inventories enter the winter with the most natural gas since 2016 – EIA -- Working natural gas in storage in the Lower 48 states ended the natural gas injection season with 3,922 billion cubic feet (Bcf), according to estimates based on data from our Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report released on November 7. U.S. inventories are starting winter 2024–25 with the most natural gas since 2016. Inventories are currently 6% above the five-year (2019–23) average, despite less-than-average injections into storage throughout the entire injection season, which runs April 1 through October 31. Less natural gas than the five-year average was injected in nearly every week during the 2024 injection season, in part because starting inventories were relatively full. Natural gas inventories in the Lower 48 states at the end of March 2024 (the end of withdrawal season) totaled 2,282 Bcf, 25% more than at the same time in 2023 and 40% more than the five-year average for March. This enabled storage operators to reach their end-of-season targets with smaller natural gas injections. Low natural gas prices in 2024 encouraged producers to curtail production, which also reduced natural gas available for injections. Net injections into natural gas storage during the injection season totaled 1,640 Bcf, 21% less than the five-year average. Weekly injections ranged from a maximum of 96 Bcf in late May to 10 Bcf in mid-July. Although natural gas is typically injected into storage in the summer, withdrawals occasionally occur, particularly in the Pacific and South Central regions. The U.S. South Central region has exhibited a unique seasonal pattern in recent years with weekly net natural gas withdrawals following early summer injections, particularly at the salt dome facilities, to meet summer cooling demand. For the week ending August 9, withdrawals in the South Central region and Pacific region combined totaled 29 Bcf, with a net withdrawal of 6 Bcf from U.S. natural gas storage, the first net withdrawal from U.S. storage during the summer since July 2016.Natural gas injections into storage for the weeks ending October 25 and November 1 (the last two weeks of injection season) exceeded their five-year averages, further boosting the volume of natural gas in storage. In our November Short-Term Energy Outlook, we forecast natural gas withdrawals during the 2024–25 heating season will total 1,957 Bcf and that inventories will be 6% above the five-year (2020–24) average at the end of March 2025.

NatGas Flowing to LNG Export Plants Close to All-Time Record High -- --Marcellus Drilling News -- The volume of natural gas flowing to U.S. LNG export facilities on Friday was on track to hit 14.6 billion cubic feet (Bcf), just shy of the all-time high of 14.7 Bcf recorded one year ago, in December 2023. The reason for the near-record high is that all LNG export facilities, including the up down up down up down Freeport LNG facility, were firing on all cylinders. Two weeks ago, one of Freeport’s three trains tripped off (see Freeport LNG Train 3 Down Again; Caused 11-Hour “Emissions Event”). When all three Freeport trains are working, the facility uses just over 2 Bcf/d of gas. On Friday, Freeport was set to hit just over 2 Bcf. Now, if we can keep it up and running!

Rising LNG Terminal Costs to Weaken Competitiveness of New U.S. Projects, Analyst Says (Reuters) — Rising costs of building and equipping new U.S. liquefied natural gas plants will reduce the competitiveness of U.S. gas exports, LNG analysts at Poten & Partners predicted on Tuesday. U.S projects have faced rising construction costs, with Venture Global's Plaquemines export plant under construction in Louisiana over budget by $2.3 billion, and Golden Pass LNG, a joint venture between Exxon Mobil and QatarEnergy, more than $2 billion over its original budget. Natural gas prices could also go to as high as $6 a million standard cubic feet because of increased demand from LNG export plants, a possible 20% growth in electricity usage and the need for significant investment in infrastructure, said Jason Feer, Poten and Partners' business intelligence chief. "We've got a lot of gas in the U.S., but we don't really have vast amounts of really cheap gas," Feer said. The Biden administration's export permitting pause likely will keep global LNG prices higher for longer and benefit existing exporters, Feer said at Poten's Global LNG Outlook conference. Feer added that for the firms proposing new export plants along the U.S. Gulf Coast, landing new customers will present a greater risk than regulation, and that even if the incoming Trump administration removed all the regulations, finding customers will still be a challenge. Among other risks facing LNG exporters is political pressure in China limiting its switch away from coal, potentially lifting its LNG demand by 5% over the next decade. Europe is highly likely to resume buying Russian gas if there is peace in Ukraine, Feer said. "There is this idea that China will switch from coal to gas. We think that is very unlikely... that will make China dependent on the U.S. or Qatar, that's expensive and a potential risk to their national security, so I don't see that happening," Feer said.

US natgas prices fall 5% to 2-week low on mild forecasts, widow maker in contango — U.S. natural gas futures fell about 5% to a two-week low on Tuesday on rising output and forecasts for milder weather and less heating demand next week than previously expected. Front-month gas futures for January delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 17.1 cents, or 5.3%, to settle at $3.042 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), their lowest close since Nov. 19. Looking ahead, futures for April 2025 traded higher than March 2025 (NGH25-J25) for the first time, an unusual step that some analysts said signals the market was already giving up on expectations of much higher prices this winter. March is the last month of the winter storage withdrawal season and April is the first month of the summer storage injection season. Since gas is primarily a winter heating fuel, traders have said summer prices should not trade above winter. The industry calls the March-April spread the "widow maker" because rapid price moves on changing weather forecasts have forced some speculators out of business, including the Amaranth hedge fund, which lost more than $6 billion in 2006. In the spot market, meanwhile, the coming of wintry weather across parts of the U.S. caused gas prices to rise to their highest since January in several regions, including the Waha hub in West Texas, Algonquin in New England, New York and at the Southern California Border. Next-day gas prices at the Algonquin jumped to $14.29 per mmBtu, boosting spot power prices to a four-month high of $122 per megawatt hour in the pipeline-constrained New England region. Power and gas prices usually spike in New England when the winter weather turns cold because there is not enough gas pipeline capacity into the six-state region to both fuel power plants and heat homes and businesses. That forces several generators to switch to more expensive oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) to fuel power plants. Financial firm LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states rose to 101.9 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in December, up from 101.5 bcfd in November. That compares with a record 105.3 bcfd in December 2023. Analysts expect producers to boost gas output in 2025 as rising demand from LNG export plants increases prices after drillers cut production in 2024 for the first time since the COVID-19 pandemic reduced usage of the fuel. Annual average gas prices at the Henry Hub will soar by over 40% in 2025 after dropping to a four-year low in 2024, according to analysts forecasts. Meteorologists projected the weather in the Lower 48 will turn from mostly colder than normal from now through Dec. 7 to mostly warmer than normal from Dec. 8-18. With less cold weather coming, LSEG forecast average gas demand in the Lower 48, including exports, would drop from 135.9 bcfd this week to 127.7 bcfd next week. Gas prices traded at a one-year high of around $15 per mmBtu at the Dutch Title Transfer Facility benchmark in Europe and at an 11-month high of $15 at the Japan-Korea Marker benchmark in Asia on worries about low supplies from Russia and colder weather in Europe.

US natural gas prices steady as milder weather forecasts offset rising LNG feedgas (Reuters) -U.S. natural gas futures were little changed on Friday as rising output and forecasts for warmer-than-expected weather over the next two weeks offset an increase in the amount of gas flowing to liquefied natural gas export plants to a 10-month high. Front-month gas futures for January delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 0.3 cent to settle at $3.076 per million British thermal units. For the week, the contract was down about 9% after gaining about 49% over the prior six weeks. Some analysts have said that winter and the high prices it usually brings could already be over before the season officially starts now that the heavily traded March-April "widow maker" spread started trading in unusual contango this week. That means the April contract is priced higher than the March contract. It is possible that gas prices have already hit their 2024 peak in November when they reached $3.56 per mmBtu. Over the past five years, prices hit their yearly highs in January 2023, August 2022, October 2021 and 2020, and January 2019. In the spot market, cold weather in West Texas helped boost next-day gas prices at the Waha hub in the Permian shale, the nation's biggest oil-producing basin, to their highest level since January. Wintry weather in New England also boosted next-day gas prices to more than $14 per mmBtu and power to more than $100 per megawatt hour (MWh) in the gas pipeline-constrained six-state region. That compares with averages in New England of $2.55 per mmBtu for gas and $41 per MWh for power so far this year. Power and gas prices usually spike in New England when the winter weather turns cold because there is not enough gas pipeline capacity into the six-state region to both fuel power plants and heat homes and businesses. That forces several generators to switch to more expensive oil and liquefied natural gas to fuel power plants. Financial firm LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states rose to 102.4 billion cubic feet per day so far in December, up from 101.5 bcfd in November. That compares with a record 105.3 bcfd in December 2023. Meteorologists projected the weather in the Lower 48 will turn from mostly colder than normal from now through Dec. 7 to mostly warmer than normal from Dec. 8-21. With warmer weather coming, LSEG forecast average gas demand in the Lower 48, including exports, would drop from 137.3 bcfd this week to 130.6 bcfd next week and 124.6 bcfd in two weeks. The amount of gas flowing to the seven big operating U.S. LNG export plants rose to an average of 14.3 bcfd so far in December, up from 13.6 bcfd in November. That compares with a monthly record high of 14.7 bcfd in December 2023. On a daily basis, LNG feedgas was on track to hit a 10-month high of 14.8 bcfd after flows to Cheniere Energy's 4.5-bcfd Sabine Pass plant in Louisiana rose to a seven-month high of 5.1 bcfd.

Pickering on Permian: Marginal Barrels, Stripper Wells, More -Is the Permian Basin the world’s marginal barrel?“I suspect that it’s pretty close to that. Most people are producing flat out,” Dan Pickering, chief investment officer for Pickering Energy Partners, said at Hart Energy’s DUG Executive Oil Conference & Expo. “If we’re going to keep producing at 6 million barrels a day here, what’s the price required to get there?”Today, the Permian Basin remains the world’s most prolific oil and gas basin as operators have advanced drilling and completion techniques to boost production and improve breakeven prices. They are drilling 4-mile laterals, upsizing well spacing and using U-turn, or horseshoe, well designs to improve efficiency, boost production and lower costs. They are producing more with fewer rigs, and some are bolting on contiguous acreage to further unlock synergies.The action has improved production rates and breakevens, with ample producers outnumbering marginal ones. However, as the Permian Basin matures and operators talk about so-called Tier 2 and Tier 3 areas with less favorable reservoir rock quality and potentially lower output, thoughts are on the basin’s future, costs and the price of oil.Sure, the world still needs affordable oil and gas, especially in developing nations, even as the global drive to lower emissions continues with a push for more renewable energy and lower-carbon energy. But at what cost?“The basin is going to have to continue drilling. We’re on a treadmill and at 6 million barrels a day, you don’t stop spending and maintain production, right? We will see a decline if we don’t keep spending,” Pickering said.Stripper wells dominate the U.S. oil and gas well count. They account for less than 10% of the nation’s oil and gas production, with horizontal wells producing far more oil and gas, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. Hydraulically fractured horizontal wells in shale formations such as the Permian typically decline faster than vertical wells in conventional reservoirs. Predictions vary on when Permian Basin oil and gas production will peak, but analysts and experts see production growing in the near term.Jefferies’ model shows the basin peaking at around 7 MMbbl/d in the 2030.However, “none of that analysis accounts for new strata. None of that analysis accounts for new fracturing or stimulation techniques,” Jefferies’ Pete Bowden, the global head of industrial, energy and infrastructure investing, said in an exclusive video interview with Hart Energy. “And one of the things that my 25 years in the business has taught me is that good oilfields find a way to keep getting better. The Permian is certainly an example of that.”Enverus forecasts Permian production will be nearly 8 MMbbl/d by the end of the decade. Speaking during DUG EOC, Daniel Romero, the director of energy strategy for analytical firm Enverus, also said crude prices will too rise along with demand.The firm in October said the global economy will need about an additional 7 MMbbl/d of liquids production and about 40 Bcf/d of more natural gas by 2030. It expects North America will be capable of delivering 30% to 40% of this at mid-cycle prices of $70 to $80 WTI and $3.50 to $4/MMBtu Henry Hub prices.But Enverus pointed out that “sub-$60/bbl WTI PV-50 breakeven oil resource has become considerably scarcer in the U.S. since 2022. This is driving global investors and operators to start looking outside of the U.S. for low-cost oily locations.”The latest Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas survey of E&P firms show companies operating in the Permian’s Delaware need $64/bbl WTI to profitably drill a new well. It’s $62/bbl in the Permian’s Midland.WTI was trading at nearly $69/bbl early Nov. 27.In a cyclical business, oil prices can swing wildly with excess capacity and geopolitics at play.“In a $70 world, Tier 3 is optionality out in the future,” Pickering said, adding there are lots of good resources in the basin. Getting to Tier 2 and Tier 3 acreage will be a function of time and price, he said, noting the Permian is ways away from Tier 2 becoming Tier 1 and Tier 3 becoming Tier 2.“If the Permian is the marginal barrel in the world five years from now, prices are going up for sure because … the world’s still going to need our 6 million barrels a day,” he added before turning to stripper wells. “I think we’re going to have plenty of them. And eventually the business goes from how well can you drill wells to how well can you produce them.”The classification of marginal wells, which are not necessarily stripper wells (though the terminology is often interchanged), depend on the price of oil and production costs. A stripper well is defined by the U.S. Internal Revenue Service as a well that produces 15 barrels or less of oil per day or 90,000 cubic feet or less of natural gas per day.Looking ahead, Pickering sees big companies producing many wells at smaller volumes.“But that’s the history of this business. We’ve been doing that forever and people know how to do that,” he said. “I’m optimistic about both the small ball and the big ball, both being pretty active for the foreseeable future.”

Over 26,000 gallons of oil lost between Bottineau, Williams County spills - — A total 26,040 gallons of crude oil was lost in North Dakota after an explosion in Williams County on Friday, Nov. 29, and a leak in Bottineau County on Saturday, Nov. 30. According to a Monday release from the North Dakota Oil and Gas Division, approximately 17,640 gallons of oil was spilled after a tank operated by Hess Corp. exploded about 6.8 miles south of Ray in Williams County. A total of 126 gallons have since been recovered. The site also lost 2,520 gallons of produced water and recovered 126 gallons. The next day, a tank overflow about 6.6 miles northwest of Maxbass in Bottineau County led to a 8,400-gallon oil spill, half of which have since been recovered. The site, operated by Scout Energy Corp., also lost 3,360 gallons of produced water and recovered three-quarters, according to the release. A total 5,880 gallons of produced water were spilled between the two incidents and 2,646 gallons have been recovered. Around 4,326 gallons of oil have been recovered in total. Clean up efforts are underway, according to the release.

USCG responds to oil spill in San Juan Harbor in Puerto Rico - US Coast Guard Incident Management pollution responders from Sector San Juan responded to and began investigating a No. 3 fuel oil spill at the Puma Energy fuel dock facility in San Juan Harbor, Puerto Rico. As announced, the source of the oil discharge has been secured and most of the material is contained within the Puma Energy fuel dock area. Approximately, 1,000 gallons are estimated to have spilled into the water. On 27 November, Coast Guard watchstanders at Sector San Juan received a report from the National Response Center reporting the incident which occurred during a fuel transfer from the Marshall Islands flagged Motor/Tanker Dubai Green to the facility. During the transfer, ship crew and facility personnel reportedly noticed a sheen in the water, approximately 100 meters long and four meters wide, and stopped transfer operations to investigate. Coast Guard Incident Management Division personnel also arrived on-scene to investigate. Clean-up response crews deployed approximately 1,000 feet of boom to contain the fuel in the water within the Puma Energy dock facility and the impacted shoreline. In the following days, efforts will take place to recover the fuel from the water and identify any pockets of material in the harbor that may have escaped the containment area. Furthermore, the Coast Guard Federal On-Scene Coordinator for the incident along with Coast Guard Incident Management Division personnel will oversee clean-up efforts until completed. Coast Guard pollution responders are coordinating with the Environmental Protection Agency, the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration, U.S. Fish and Wildlife and the Puerto Rico Department of Natural and Environmental Resources, among other entities, and monitoring for any signs of affected wildlife in the area. In addition, Puma Energy hired the Marine Spill Response Corporation as the Oil Spill Removal Organization that will be leading clean-up efforts for the incident. MSRC subcontracted All Environmental Services, Inc. to assist with clean-up and oil recovery efforts. “This incident highlights the importance of fuel facilities and vessels having updated response plans in place and that those plans are exercised frequently to ensure the quickest and most efficient response possible, and to prevent similar incidents from occurring in the future” said Chief Warrant Officer Jamie Testa, Coast Guard Federal On-Scene Coordinator. The Coast Guard is advising the public and local fishermen in the area to stay away from the incident site, to not touch any fuel material and to not conduct any fishing or activities in the vicinity until clean-up operations are completed.

Mexico LNG Projects Face Increased Political, Regulatory Risks, Expert Says -Political risk in Mexico is clouding the picture for commercially attractive LNG projects, according to Alex Munton, Rapidan Energy Group’s Global Gas and LNG research lead. “I don't think at this stage you can adequately insure against the political risk and regulatory changes being introduced in Mexico, and more certainty is going to be needed for some investment projects to move forward,” he told NGI’s Mexico GPI. Munton is Rapidan Energy Group’s Global Gas and LNG research lead based in Houston. He is a seasoned energy analyst with more than 20 years of experience in the industry. He oversees all aspects of Rapidan’s Global Gas and LNG Service, including product development, research and analysis, and bespoke offerings. Related Tags

Imperial Oil reports biomass spill into St. Clair River in Ontario - Imperial Oil Ltd on Tuesday said it is currently managing a minor biomass spill into the St. Clair River from its water treatment plant in Ontario, Canada. "This occurred this morning and has been contained within the site's outfall. Booms have been placed within that area of the river," Imperial said. As a precaution, a vac truck has been stationed at the area to prevent another carryover occurrence, the company said. Imperial was not immediately available to comment on the volume of the release.

BC’s Tilbury LNG Taking Next Step to Advance Second Expansion Project -FortisBC has filed an environmental assessment application with regulators in British Columbia (BC) to again expand its small-scale LNG facility to serve emerging markets. Aerial image of Tilbury LNG facility in Canada. Expand The application filed with the BC Environmental Assessment Office (EAO) would advance Tilbury LNG’s phase one expansion. The project would add a 142,400 cubic meter storage tank to boost storage capacity by 2.5 times. It would also add 2.5 million tons/year (Mt/y) of liquefaction capacity, mainly to serve provincial demand and growing marine refueling needs in the region.

Enbridge Scrapping Northern BC Natural Gas Pipeline as Project Backlog Swells to C$27B - Enbridge Inc. has canceled its planned Westcoast Connector Gas Transmission (WCGT) project in northern British Columbia (BC), allowing the environmental certificate to expire as it focuses on other growth opportunities across North America. Map showing BC's proposed and operational natural gas pipelines to serve under construction LNG facilities. The Calgary-based pipeline giant allowed the WCGT’s environmental certificate to expire in late November, ending a long-running competition with TC Energy Corp. and others to supply feed gas to proposed LNG export terminals near Prince Rupert. WCGT lost out to TC’s proposed Prince Rupert Gas Transmission (PRGT) system, which landed the Ksi Lisims LNG project as a customer in October 2023. The decision came as Enbridge's project backlog has swelled to C$27 billion (US$19 billion). The company on Tuesday announced plans to spend around C$7 billion on capital expenditures in 2025, excluding maintenance costs. The company this year has added C$7 billion in new capital projects and completed roughly C$1 billion in acquisitions.

Argentina Natural Gas Producers Committing to LNG as Vaca Muerta Output Grows -Argentina energy firm Pampa Energia SA has joined the Southern Energy SA consortium to develop a floating LNG export project in the province of Río Negro. The 2.45 million ton/year (Mt/y) project would be ready to ship out gas for the second half of 2027, Pampa executives said in a statement. Pampa joined Golar LNG Ltd. and natural gas producer Pan American Energy S.L. in the venture. Total investment would be $2.9 billion over 10 years. Plans are to liquefy and export natural gas sourced from the Vaca Muerta shale play in Argentina’s Neuquén Basin. Vaca Muerta is considered the world’s second largest shale gas resource.

Key Vaca Muerta Gas Pipeline Project Approved by Argentina Government (Reuters) - Argentina's government has approved a key $500 million private sector gas pipeline expansion project, the energy secretariat said on Monday, a key signal of state support to boost transport capacity as it ramps up domestic energy production. The project, proposed by major private local operator Transportadora de Gas del Sur (TGS), would expand transport capacity from the huge Vaca Muerta shale region to Buenos Aires province. The project will be tendered by the government. The project is a rare attempt by the private sector to take the lead expanding Argentina's gas pipeline network, which has traditionally been led by the state. Argentina, under new libertarian President Javier Milei, is luring more private investment to overturn an energy deficit and export more gas. TGS originally presented the plan in June and said its proposal, which is subject to it winning the tender, was to install six compressor tube sets at four plants. That would increase the amount of gas the existing pipeline could carry. "The initiative includes the expansion of the Perito Moreno gas pipeline between Tratayén (Neuquén) and Salliqueló (Buenos Aires) and work on four compressor plants," the energy secretariat said in a statement. "This will allow the company to add 14 million cubic meters of gas transportation capacity per day to the 21 million it already transports, so reaching 35 million cubic meters along the entire route," it added. Argentina is pushing to rev up output from Vaca Muerta, the world's second largest shale gas formation, and to build up the infrastructure to supply domestic demand and eventually allow liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports. TGS, if successful in the tender, has also pledged a further $200 million investment in a second phase to build 20 kilometers of new pipeline and add more compression capacity in an area that TGS already has under concession. "We understand that the tender should be launched in the next few days," TGS CEO Oscar Sardi said on Monday at an event in Buenos Aires, adding the complex installation of compressor plants required almost two years to get into operation. "We are playing against the clock," he added.

Argentina LNG Export Project Gathers Backing From Shale Drillers –-- A plan to export liquefied natural gas from Argentina is gaining momentum, with four drillers in the country’s heralded shale patch now signed on to supply a facility with the fuel. London-based oil company Harbour Energy Plc announced this week that it would acquire a 15% equity stake in the roughly $3 billion floating liquefaction project, or FLNG, spearheaded by driller Pan American Energy Group and FLNG vessel provider Golar LNG Ltd. Harbour recently acquired drilling assets in Argentina from Germany’s Wintershall Dea AG that include areas in the Vaca Muerta shale formation. Wintershall’s offshore venture with Pan American — which is 50% owned by BP Plc — and France’s TotalEnergies SE were also part of the acquisition. Harbour follows Pampa Energia SA, which said on Nov. 29 that it will have a 20% stake in the project, and Argentina’s top oil and gas producer state-run YPF SA, which also intends to pipe fuel to the FLNG. The facility is scheduled to start operations on the Atlantic coast in 2027. YPF has been developing a liquefied natural gas project of its own involving multiple FLNGs and, eventually, construction of an onshore plant. Even with various projects being analyzed, YPF’s chief executive has said that Argentina’s drillers should rally around one venture. Argentina’s LNG ambitions put it in competition with growth in the US and Qatar, two of the world’s top natural gas suppliers. Demand for the fuel has been on the rise in Europe, where importers are cutting back on gas piped from Russia, and in Southeast Asia, where new buyers are de-carbonizing their energy portfolios.

Norwegian piped gas exports to NW Europe edge up in November - Norway's pipeline gas exports to landed markets in Northwest Europe edged up in November compared with October, but were slightly down year on year, an analysis of S&P Global Commodity Insights data showed Dec. 4. Deliveries amounted to 9.8 Bcm in November, up 2% from 9.56 Bcm in October but down 1% on the year, the data showed. Year-to-date exports remain strong, however, with pipeline deliveries up 9% year on year to 103 Bcm in the January-November period. This is now on a par with deliveries in the first 11 months of 2022. According to the Norwegian Offshore Directorate, 2022 is currently seen as the peak year for gas output in Norway. Germany remains the biggest landing point for Norwegian gas, with supplies totaling 3.7 Bcm in November followed by the UK (2.8 Bcm), Belgium (1.3 Bcm), France (0.8 Bcm), Denmark (0.8 Bcm), and the Netherlands (0.4 Bcm). Norway is now the single biggest supply source of gas to the European market after Russian deliveries were sharply curtailed through 2022. Norwegian operators maximized production and European exports to help offset lost Russian volumes and to make the most of high prices, which hit record highs in summer 2022. Producers continue to look to ensure high output levels given ongoing strength in European gas prices. Platts, part of Commodity Insights, assessed the TTF month-ahead price on Dec. 3 at Eur48.49/MWh. Equinor CFO Torgrim Reitan said in October that gas prices reflected the fact that markets remain in a "vulnerable" state. Speaking to analysts following the release of the Norwegian producer's Q3 results, Reitan said Asian LNG demand and the expiry of the Russia-Ukraine gas transit deal at the end of this year were key "moving parts" to watch. The weather is also set to be a critical factor this winter following a mild 2023/24 season, Reitan said. "A normal winter would leave the gas storages around 40% full in April compared to 60% this year," he said. "So that will have an impact on prices during the winter." EU gas storage sites are currently filled to 84.7% of capacity, according to the latest data from Gas Infrastructure Europe. The European Commission last month raised an interim EU-wide gas storage filling target for Feb. 1 next year to 50% from 45% this year given concerns over Russian supplies via Ukraine. The higher target was part of interim goals set by the EC Nov. 29 for EU countries to meet in 2025 to ensure gas storage facilities are filled to at least 90% of capacity by Nov. 1 next year.

Shell, Equinor Combining UK North Sea Natural Gas and Oil Portfolio as Fossil Fuels Focus Strengthens --Shell plc and Equinor ASA have agreed to merge their UK North Sea natural gas and oil businesses to create the offshore region’s largest independent producer. The move, they said, would provide a ‘sustainable future’ for the mature basin to benefit the energy import-dependent island nation. Graph showing UK's natural gas production, including both onshore and offshore, associated and dry gas output through Oct. 2024. In the UK, Equinor now produces about 38,000 boe/d; Shell’s output is 100,000 boe/d-plus. The 50-50 joint venture (JV) in 2025 is expected to produce more than 140,000 boe/d, the partners estimated. According to the UK Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR), the UK North Sea in 2023 produced 1.6 million boe/d, 60% weighted to natural gas. The offshore region contributes a relatively small share of global output, or around 0.8% of natural gas and 0.7% of oil. “However, it remains a vital component of the UK's energy mix, meeting approximately 60% of the country's oil demand and 40% of its gas needs.”

Lynch lobbies up as he eyes Nord Stream 2 --American investor Stephen Lynch hired Wilmer Cutler Pickering Hale and Dorr LLP to lobby on commodity and energy transit infrastructure days before The Wall Street Journal reported he wanted to buy the Nord Stream 2 pipeline if it comes up for auction in a Swiss bankruptcy proceeding. Lynch called this “a once-in-a-generation opportunity for American and European control over European energy supply for the rest of the fossil-fuel era.” The lobbyist on the account is Rob Lehman, former chief of staff to Sen. Rob Portman (R-Ohio).S-3 Group registered to monitor issues related to “the responsible production of American oil and gas” on behalf of the ​American Exploration & Production Council, a trade association representing some of the country’s largest independent oil and natural gas companies. The lobbyist on the account is Matt Bravo, former director of floor operations for House Majority Leader Steve Scalise (R-La.).

Europe Sets More Aggressive Natural Gas Storage Targets, Pushing Prices Higher — Cold weather and renewed concerns over the pace of storage withdrawals are once again pushing European natural gas prices near record highs for the year. (a chart tracking European Union natural gas storage levels) The January Title Transfer Facility (TTF) contract gained 2% on Monday to finish at $14.95/MMBtu, or just 4 cents shy of this year’s highest close of $14.99 on Nov. 21. Colder weather is expected this week and next across northern and western Europe. Meanwhile, storage inventories are at 85.5% of capacity, below the five-year average of 88% and lagging behind the 95% level at this time last year.

European Gas Extends Losses With Russian Decree Easing Concerns - European natural gas prices extended this week’s loss after the Kremlin changed procedures to pay for Russian gas, easing concerns that flows to the region will be cut off. Benchmark futures dropped as much as 1.4% on Friday and are on track for a weekly decline of more than three 3%, the first since early November. On Thursday, President Vladimir Putin changed the way foreign buyers of Russian gas have to pay for supplies, easing concerns that US sanctions imposed on Gazprombank last month will lead to an early halt of supplies to Europe. While Gazprombank remains the authorized bank to handle payments for Gazprom PJSC, Russia now allows money transfers via third parties. This could allow foreign buyers of Russian gas to use accounts in other banks to convert foreign exchange payments into rubles and transfer the money to Gazprombank. While Europe relies on a number of suppliers beyond Russia for gas, faster-than-usual storage withdrawals this heating season have left the market vulnerable to signs of disruption. Inventories are currently about 84% full, lower than this time last year. Liquefied natural gas imports have also gained momentum recently and are helping to ease concerns around the supply outlook. Mild and windy conditions are forecast for the rest of the week, potentially helping the region to save fuel. Dutch front-month futures, Europe’s gas benchmark, fell 0.6% to €46.26 a megawatt-hour at 8:59 a.m. in Amsterdam.

Jordan Signs Deal to Use Egyptian FSRU Until 2026 (Reuters) - Egypt and Jordan have signed an agreement to allow Jordan to use an Egyptian floating storage and regasification unit (FSRU) until 2026, Jordan's energy ministry said on Monday. The FSRU will help Jordan secure liquefied natural gas supplies in case of emergencies ahead of the completion of the Aqaba LNG import terminal scheduled in the fourth quarter of 2026. The agreement includes determining priority use for FSRU between both sides in case of simultaneous needs, with around 350 MMcfgd allocated to Jordan. This would represent 50% of the LNG capacity of a single FSRU, or 25% in case of additional capacity. The ministry estimated the cost of gas at around $3 million per shipment and $5 million to transfer gas through the Egyptian gas grid. It said the cost of LNG bought by Jordan annually would not exceed $10 million. The agreement comes under efforts to provide Jordan with a less costly mechanism to supply LNG, according to the statement.

Liquid Gas Imports to Continue in Egypt Until 2030 -- The Egyptian government has decided to continue importing liquid gas into the country until 2030. Natural gas production in Egypt has declined to 4.3 billion cubic feet per day, falling short of the country's daily demand of 6 billion cubic feet, especially during peak summer months. Earlier in 2024, the government restarted the import of liquefied gas after stopping in 2018, when domestic production was supported by new gas discoveries at the time. The country has already reached agreements with Italian energy giant Eni and American company Apache to increase their output. To incentivize further production and exploration, Egypt has committed to settling outstanding payments to these companies. The government's strategy aims to balance domestic production and imports to ensure a stable supply of natural gas for the country's needs.

Adnoc, Chevron Sign on More Long-Term Natural Gas Buyers — Abu Dhabi National Oil Co. (Adnoc) has signed another sales and purchase agreement (SPA) to sell 1 million tons/year (Mt/y) of LNG from its Ruwais export project under development in Al Ruwais Industrial City. Chart and graph showing key natural gas price hubs for Asian markets. The company converted a heads of agreement with Malaysia’s Petronas into a binding 15-year deal to sell the super-chilled fuel beginning in 2028, when the Ruwais plant is expected to enter service. Adnoc sanctioned the 9.6 Mt/y Ruwais project earlier this year. It has so far committed 8 Mt/y of the project’s capacity to international buyers. The facility would boost Adnoc’s LNG production capacity to 15 Mt/y. Chevron Corp. also announced an SPA to sell 0.6 Mt/y of LNG from its global portfolio to Sembcorp Industries. Singapore-based Sembcorp generates power in 10 countries. Chevron said it would begin delivering the LNG in 2028 for a period of 10 years.

LNG Supply Delays, Asian Demand Growth Push Peak Natural Gas Price Volatility to 2028 --Commodity analysts are revising up forecasts for global natural gas prices over the next two years as growing global demand collides with a slowdown of new volumes hitting the market. Image showing a comprehensive market analysis of the global LNG futures settles according to Natural Gas Intelligence (NGI), highlighting key insights into energy market dynamics and gas data projections for the near future. Analysts with Morgan Stanely scrapped previous estimates for softer prices next year in Europe and Asia after tracking a more than 10% rise in global LNG demand in 2024. Most of that growth occurred in Asia, which is expected to keep a strong pull on cargoes into 2025 as industrial sectors recover. The firm revised its forecast for East Asian LNG prices to an average of $12/MMBtu next year, versus a previous estimate of $10. Title Transfer Facility prices were said to correlate with Asian rates, supported by lower storage inventories in Europe after the winter and the loss of Russian pipeline volumes.

Bangladesh's new LNG purchase policy draws Shell, BP, Glencore and Aramco (Reuters) - Shell, BP, Aramco and Glencore are among nearly two dozen firms Bangladesh has approved as suppliers of spot liquefied natural gas (LNG) as it seeks to boost competition and cut costs, the country's top energy official told Reuters. Bangladesh's spot market was previously dominated by Vitol, Gunvor and Excelerate Energy, said Muhammad Fouzul Kabir Khan, the country's de facto energy and power minister. But after the ousting of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina in August, the interim government is moving to an open instead of private tender. The National Gas Company of Trinidad and Tobago Limited (NGC) NGC’s HSSE strategy is reflective and supportive of the organisational vision to become a leader in the global energy business. The country of 171 million people, which made its first LNG import in 2018, bought 5.2 million metric tons in 2023, up 19% from the previous year, and analysts expect its demand to keep rising as population increases and domestic gas output falls. Bangladesh spends about 60 billion taka ($504 million) a year on LNG imports, mainly to run power plants, with more than half coming from government contracts with Qatar and Oman and the rest through the spot market. About half of Bangladesh's power-generation capacity is gas based, but many plants are running short of supply. "All the major players, the giants - Aramco, Shell, BP - have applied to supply. This is the advantage of opening up," Khan said late on Tuesday. "We are trying to open up to have more competition and save more." Khan said potential savings would depend on new orders placed by state-run Rupantarita Prakritik Gas Co Ltd (RPGCL). He did not say when that could happen. Saudi Aramco's 2222.SE trading arm Aramco Trading Co (ATC), BP Singapore, Shell International Trading Middle East and Glencore Singapore are among the 22 new firms on Bangladesh's list of 33 potential suppliers seen by Reuters. Vitol Asia, Gunvor Singapore and Excelerate Energy are among existing suppliers remaining on the list. Glencore GLEN.L declined to comment. Saudi Aramco, BP, Shell, Vitol, Gunvor and Excelerate Energy did not immediately respond to requests for comment. In November, RPGCL issued an invitation for companies to supply LNG on a spot basis. The new list of companies would replace the previous roster of 23 suppliers, an official at RPGCL parent Petrobangla said at the time. Bangladesh imports about 100 LNG cargoes annually, with more than 50 through direct contracts with Qatar and Oman and the rest as spot purchases from private suppliers, Khan said.

Pakistan Defers LNG Contract with Qatar to 2026, Citing Surplus (Reuters) — Pakistan has deferred an agreement to buy liquefied natural gas from Qatar for a year, Petroleum Minister Musadik Malik said on Wednesday, and will now receive the contracted LNG cargoes in 2026 instead of 2025. "We currently have a surplus of LNG, so we are not importing any new cargo," said Malik. There were no financial penalties for deferring, rather than cancelling, the order, he added. Annual power use in Pakistan, which gets over a third of its electricity from natural gas, has fallen 8-10% year-on-year over the past three quarters, its power minister told Reuters in November, primarily due to higher tariffs curbing household consumption. The South Asian nation has deferred five LNG cargoes from Qatar and is negotiating to defer five more with other markets, Malik told journalists, without disclosing the names of the sellers. The government said in November it was slashing its electricity tariffs over the winter to boost consumption and cut the use of natural gas for heating. Many power utilities in Pakistan have had to curtail or even halt operations in winter months due to demand dropping by up to 60% from peak summer levels. Malik told Reuters in June that Pakistan was unlikely to buy LNG cargoes on the spot market until at least the beginning of winter in November due to oversupply and high prices. Pakistan, which last bought a spot LNG cargo in late 2023, cancelled its spot LNG tender for delivery in January owing to oversupply and a lack of buyers in Pakistan at spot prices. Malik also denied local media reports that Pakistan was closing a deal to import one cargo of crude oil from Russia each month from January. He said his government had restarted talks with Russia and was looking to solve obstacles such as "insurance, reinsurance, deal structure, shipping lines and ship cargo size", but had not concluded a deal. The previous caretaker government had decided not to pursue a government-to-government agreement with Russia, allowing the private sector to step in, Malik said. Pakistan signed a deal with Russia in 2023 to import crude oil for local refining, which included a 100,000 metric ton shipment to state-owned Pakistan Refinery Limited. Under that arrangement, Pakistan paid for the crude at a discounted rate using Chinese yuan.

LNG Imports Rise 10.8% in October as Domestic Gas Output Drops 1.6% -India’s natural gas landscape in October 2024 showed a blend of growth and challenges. Liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports experienced a significant increase of 10.8 per cent year-on-year, reaching 2941 million standard cubic meters (MMSCM), while domestic production saw a decline of 1.6 per cent, totaling 3111 MMSCM. According to the latest report from the Petroleum Planning & Analysis Cell (PPAC), the country’s growing dependence on imported LNG to meet rising energy demands was evident, as domestic production struggled to keep pace. In October, the total natural gas available for sale was 5527 MMSCM, marking a 4.2 per cent increase from the same month last year. However, consumption decreased slightly to 6019 MMSCM, compared to September’s levels, reflecting uneven demand across sectors. Fertilizers were the largest consumer, accounting for 29 per cent, followed by city gas distribution (CGD) at 21 per cent, and power generation at 11 per cent. Refineries and petrochemicals together consumed 12 per cent of the available gas...

LNG Imports India: LNG imports surge 10.8% in October as domestic gas output falls by 1.6%, New Delhi: India’s natural gas landscape in October 2024 reflected a mixed bag of growth and challenges, with liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports rising sharply by 10.8% year-on-year to 2941 million standard cubic meters (MMSCM), while domestic production fell by 1.6% to 3111 MMSCM. The latest report from the Petroleum Planning & Analysis Cell (PPAC) highlights the country's increasing reliance on imported LNG to meet burgeoning energy demands, as domestic output struggles to keep pace. Total natural gas available for sale in October stood at 5527 MMSCM, marking a 4.2% increase compared to the same month last year. However, consumption marginally dipped to 6019 MMSCM in October 2024 from September's levels, underscoring uneven sectoral demand. Fertilizers accounted for the largest share at 29%, followed by city gas distribution (CGD) at 21%, and power generation at 11%. Refineries and petrochemicals collectively consumed 12% of the total gas available. The report highlights a concerning trend of declining domestic production, which fell to 3111 MMSCM in October 2024 from 3161 MMSCM in October 2023. Of this, only 2586 MMSCM was available for sale after accounting for technical losses, flaring, and internal consumption by gas-producing companies. This constitutes 83.1% of the gross production. In contrast, LNG imports, which jumped to 2941 MMSCM from 2653 MMSCM in October 2023, have become a critical element in sustaining the country’s energy supply. India’s reliance on LNG imports continues to grow, with the rise attributed to increased demand from industrial sectors and city gas distribution networks, particularly in urban areas where clean energy initiatives are gaining momentum.

QatarEnergy, Shell Sign Deal to Send More LNG to China in 11th SPA --QatarEnergy said Monday it has signed a long-term sales and purchase agreement (SPA) with Shell plc to provide 3 million tons/year (Mt/y) of LNG for delivery to China. QatarEnergy said deliveries under the SPA would begin next month. No other terms of the deal were announced. Shell, the world’s leading LNG trader, and QatarEnergy, among the world’s leading LNG producers, have 11 SPAs together. QatarEnergy CEO Saad Sherida Al-Kaabi said the deal “underlines our consistent ability to meet the diverse requirements of our customers and partners globally.”

QatarEnergy Signs Long-Term LNG Deal with Shell for China Delivery (Reuters) — State-owned QatarEnergy has signed a long-term sales and purchase agreement with oil and gas major Shell to supply it with liquefied natural gas (LNG) for delivery to China. The deal is for the supply of three million metric tons per annum year of LNG, said QatarEnergy in a statement on Monday, adding that the agreement will start in January 2025. QatarEnergy added that the agreement highlights the continued growth of China's LNG market, but did not say how long the duration of the supply deal with Shell would be. Four trading and industry sources said the volumes will go to Shell's supply pool under its portfolio in China. China is the world's largest importer of LNG. It shipped 71 million metric tons of the super-chilled fuel in 2023, and a record high of nearly 79 million metric tons in 2021, according to the country's customs data. Shell forecasts the LNG market will grow by around 50% by 2040 from around 400 mtpa in 2023 as Asian economies grow and as gas, the least polluting fossil fuel, replaces coal in power generation. Strong LNG sales helped boost Shell's third-quarter profits of $6 billion that exceeded forecasts by 12%. Shell, the world's biggest LNG trader, and other companies including BP say they have lost billions of dollars in profit from gas promised under long-term contracts but it was not delivered. Venture Global LNG contends it has not fully commissioned the Louisiana plant. Qatar is the third largest LNG exporter globally after the U.S. and Australia. It has exported 73 million metric tons of LNG so far this year, according to data from analytics firm Kpler. Between 2022-2023, QatarEnergy agreed a series of 27-year deals to supply Chinese buyers with new gas from North Field.

China Completes Full Pipeline for Power-of-Siberia Gas (Reuters) - China has built and connected the 5,111-km (3,175-mile) Power-of-Siberia pipeline to deliver gas from Russia's Siberian fields to users as far as the financial hub of Shanghai, Chinese state media reported on Monday. The completion will allow the project to reach its full annual designed capacity of 38 billion cubic meters in 2025, roughly 9% of China's consumption this year. Chinese builders added the last section, a 167-km line from Nantong to Luzhi in the eastern province of Jiangsu, around mid-November, completing the massive project seven months ahead of schedule. The pipeline has a diameter of 1.422 meters, allowable pressure of 12 megapascals and the largest transport capacity for a single pipeline, state television said. The Power-of-Siberia pipeline began pumping gas in late 2019, and Russia has been ramping up supplies since. It is slated to deliver 38 Bcm in 2025, state media said, a level 26% higher than the 30 Bcm estimated by analysts for 2024. Citing an official with state-run PipeChina, the report said Power-of-Siberia is currently sending 110 MMcmd, versus 15 MMcmd when the project first came on stream five years ago.

China-Russia east-route natural gas pipeline fully operational -- China's largest single-pipe natural gas transmission project, the China-Russia east-route natural gas pipeline, officially went into full operation on Monday. From construction to operation, the pipeline's critical equipment and core control systems have been entirely domestically produced, China Media Group (CMG) reported. With the full operation of this 5,111-kilometer natural gas pipeline, its annual transmission capacity is set to be raised to a peak of 38 billion cubic meters, benefiting about 450 million people along its route, according to the report. Notably, this world-class pipeline has achieved full localization of its critical equipment. For example, at Heihe station in Northeast China's Heilongjiang Province, the first along the pipeline, three domestically produced electric-driven compressors are continuously pressurizing natural gas and delivering it downstream, CMG reported. Acting as the "heart" of the natural gas compression stations, these compressors play a vital role. Across the entire length of the pipeline, there are 36 high-power compressor units in operation, all sourced from domestic manufacturers, according to the report. The pipeline has also achieved the full localization of both the hardware and software of its core control systems for the first time, the report said. The pipeline was built and commissioned in three sections: the northern, central and southern. It was completed on November 18, seven months ahead of schedule, the National Oil and Gas Pipeline Network Group (PipeChina), the builder of the project, said in a statement. As of November 18, the pipeline has safely and steadily delivered over 78 billion cubic meters of natural gas, PipeChina said in November. Once the pipeline reaches its maximum transmission capacity, it will account for nearly 10 percent of the country's total natural gas consumption annually, highlighting its critical importance, Lin Boqiang, director of the China Center for Energy Economics Research at Xiamen University, told the Global Times on Monday. In 2023, the country's natural gas consumption reached 394.5 billion cubic meters, up 7.6 percent year-on-year, per data from the National Energy Administration. Piped natural gas is much cheaper than liquefied natural gas. Additionally, as a clean energy source, it plays a crucial role in driving the transition to a more sustainable energy future, Lin noted. In recent years, China's natural gas production has grown rapidly, but the surge in consumption has led to an increase in imports, therefore securing a diversified supply of imports is essential, Lin noted. The China-Russia east-route natural gas pipeline starts in Heihe in the north, and runs through nine provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities, reaching all the way to Shanghai. It is a key component of China's four major oil and gas strategic corridors and after the China-Central Asia gas pipeline and China-Myanmar natural gas pipeline, has become the third cross-border natural gas pipeline to supply China, according to the Xinhua News Agency. This year, China accelerated the expansion of its oil and gas pipeline infrastructure, adding over 4,000 kilometers of new pipelines and making steady progress toward building a unified national network, CMG said. The national natural gas network now boasts a daily supply capacity of over 1 billion cubic meters.

Spain’s Crude Oil Imports From Venezuela Hit the Highest Level Since 2006 --Thanks to a U.S. license for Spanish energy major Repsol to import Venezuelan crude, Spain’s crude oil imports from the South American country have hit this year the highest level since 2006, according to Spanish government data. So far this year, Spain has imported about 2.6 million metric tons of crude oil from Venezuela, per data from Spanish government agency Cores cited by Reuters. Back in 2006, Spain’s crude imports from Venezuela at this time of the year were roughly 2.7 million tons.Venezuela has boosted its crude oil exports to Western countries this year, thanks to eased U.S. sanctions and specific licenses granted to European companies including Repsol and Italy’s Eni.Repsol has a special U.S. license to import crude from Venezuela’s state oil firm PDVSA as a repayment of debts.Even after the six-month temporary U.S. sanctions relief ended in April 2024, the United States issued several licenses authorizing international majors to continue dealing, in part, with Venezuela and Venezuela’s crude.One of these specific licenses has been granted to Repsol, which has existing oil production in Venezuela, alongside U.S. Chevron, Italy’s Eni, Maurel & Prom, and Shell.Repsol, in joint ventures with PDVSA, has stakes in the offshore gas Perla Field (Cardón IV), one of Latin America’s largest offshore gas fields, a 60% stake in the onshore Quiriquire gas project, and interests in the Petrocarabobo heavy crude project and the Petroquiriquire joint venture.As a result of the license to Repsol, Spanish crude oil imports from Venezuela have surgedthis year.Between January and July 2024, Spain’s crude imports from the country holding the world’s biggest oil resources reached 1.7 million tons, exceeding the imports for the entire year 2023, which were a total of 1.4 million tons.Repsol has also raised production at its Venezuelan joint ventures with PDVSA, the Spanish firm’s CEO Josu Jon Imaz said in July.

DNO Discovers Oil in New Play Offshore Norway - DNO ASA announced a “play opener” oil discovery offshore Norway, its second significant discovery in two years. The Othello discovery is the first time moveable oil has been encountered in the Borr unit of the Vale Formation, DNO said. Othello was drilled in an eastern section of the basin previously known as “the dry belt.” The company drilled two wells in the formation, and the shallower prospect hit. Preliminary estimates show gross recoverable resources of 27 MMboe to 57 MMboe, with a mean estimate of 41 MMboe. DNO holds a 50% operated interest in the license. Aker BP ASA and Petoro AS hold 20% each, and Source Energy AS the remaining 10%. The partners are considering tying back the discovery to existing infrastructure. The ConocoPhillips Ekofisk hub is 25 miles west of Othello and Aker’s Valhall hub is 35 southwest. Last year, DNO announced the Norma gas condensate discovery in the Norwegian North Sea.

North Sea Oil Market Sees Biggest Trading Frenzy in 16 Years - The North Sea crude market just witnessed its largest trading frenzy in at least 16 years, adding to uncertainty over oil prices in the year ahead. Eight cargoes — or about 5.6 million barrels of crude — changed hands Monday in a pricing window run by Platts, a unit of S&P Global Commodity Insights. That’s the most since 2008, when Bloomberg started compiling the data. Trafigura Group and TotalEnergies SE were the main buyers, with Equinor ASA and Gunvor Group the only sellers. Almost all of the crude traded helps set the price of Dated Brent, the world’s most important pricing benchmark for actual barrels of oil, Dated Brent.The buying binge occurs at an unusual time — the North Sea crude market is generally quiet in December as traders start to close up their books — and adds to questions about where they think prices will go in the coming months. Benchmark futures have hovered, mostly, in a range between $70 and $80 a barrel since August as investors work their way through a fog of uncertainty. It’s not yet clear when the OPEC+ alliance will boost production, or when top-consumer China will be able to revive its economy, which faces the threat of US tariffs from the incoming Trump administration. Geopolitical risks in Ukraine and the Middle East still loom.The following table shows deals completed during a process called Market on Close that Platts assesses to determine benchmark oil prices. Prices are relative to Dated Brent:The North Sea oil market is often subject to significant buying and selling, and trading activity can have a far-reaching impact. Four of the five grades traded Monday — WTI Midland, Forties, Brent and Oseberg — help make up the Dated Brent benchmark. In June, Gunvor and Trafigura, two of the world’s largest oil traders, bid heavily for various benchmark grades, pushing up physical prices globally. Last month, Petroineos, a joint venture of state-owned PetroChina Co. and UK billionaire Jim Ratcliffe’s Ineos Group Plc, snapped up crude at the fastest pace in at least 16 years.

Oil spill from Druzhba pipeline in Poland, authorities report -An oil spill from the Druzhba pipeline was detected near the town of Pniewy in western Poland on Sunday, prompting local authorities to manage traffic and initiate emergency response measures. Officials confirmed that the incident does not pose a risk of fire or explosion. The leak, discovered in a field near a gas station on the outskirts of Pniewy, led to a strong smell of gas in the area. “During the investigation, it was determined that there was a spill of a substance resembling oil in a field in the area,” said Martin Halasz, spokesman for the regional State Fire Service. The Druzhba pipeline, a major conduit for oil supplies from Russia to eastern and central Europe, is managed by Polish energy firm PERN. Following the discovery, the company shut down one of the pipeline's pumping substations as a precaution. "The eastern section of the pipeline has already been shut down, but the remote system failed to close the western section, so manual shutdown is currently underway," Halasz explained. A chemical response team and the Provincial Fire Service Commander’s Operational Group were dispatched to the scene to assess and secure the area.

Sounion's crude oil transfer successfully completed near Suez - The transfer of 150,000 tons of crude oil (approximately 1,000,000 barrels) from the Greek-owned tanker Sounion to the tanker Delta Blue was successfully completed at an anchorage near Suez. According to sources from the Hellenic Ministry of Maritime Affairs and Insular Policy, the operation was carried out successfully with the support of the Greek rescue vessel Aegean Sea, without any unforeseen incidents, despite the serious condition of the tanker, which had been attacked with explosives by the Houthis off the coast of Yemen. The Greek-owned tanker was first attacked by drones on Wednesday, August 21, and its 25-member crew (23 Filipinos and two Russians) was evacuated the next day by a French destroyer to a safe location in Djibouti. On Sunday, October 7, the rescue vessel Aegean Sea, with a specialized team of 27 members, successfully extinguished 18 fire hotspots on the tanker. The tanker was then safely towed to an anchorage near Suez to facilitate the transfer of crude oil to another tanker.

OPEC oil output rises in November as Libya recovers, survey finds (Reuters) - OPEC oil output rose for a second month in November as Libya's production recovered after resolution of a political crisis, a Reuters survey found, though members making cuts pledged to the wider OPEC+ alliance kept output broadly steady. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries pumped 26.51 million barrels per day (bpd) last month, up 180,000 bpd from October, the survey showed on Tuesday, with Libya again posting the largest increase. Libyan output recovered after resolution of a dispute over control of the central bank, allowing full production to resume at oilfields and applying downward pressure on prices. The country is exempt from agreements by the broader OPEC+ group of producers to limit output. OPEC+ is scheduled to meet on Thursday and could extend output cuts into 2025 in the face of global demand concerns and rising output outside the group, sources have told Reuters. Other increases of 50,000 bpd each came from Nigeria and from Iran. There were no significant drops in output. Iraqi production edged lower, the survey found, reflecting efforts to boost compliance with its OPEC+ quota. OPEC pumped about 16,000 bpd above the implied target for the nine members covered by supply cut agreements, the survey found, with Gabon exceeding its target by the largest amount. The Reuters survey aims to track supply to the market and is based on shipping data provided by external sources, flows data from financial group LSEG, information from companies that track flows, such as Kpler and Petro-Logistics, and information provided by sources at oil companies, OPEC and consultants.

Libya Daily Oil Output Hits 11-Year High --Libya’s oil production has risen to the highest daily level in more than a decade, just months after a political crisis slashed the country’s output. Crude and condensate production hit 1.422 million barrels on Thursday, the National Oil Corp. said in a post on X. That exceeds the state oil-firm’s target by 22,000 barrels. It’s also the highest daily volume since 2013, according to the NOC. The surge marks a stunning turnaround for Libya’s oil industry this year. In August, a feud between the country’s rival eastern and western governments halved output, stoking fears of a renewed war. The two sides resolved their dispute a month later. The North African country is now planning its first tender for energy exploration since the 2011 civil war that ousted leader Moammar Al Qaddafi. Italy’s Eni Spa and BP Plc resumed drilling last month, ending a pause in place since 2014. Libya, home to the Africa’s largest oil reserves, in November boosted crude output to 1.14 million barrels a day, providing a sense of the nation’s oil rebound. The ramp-up would help bring foreign currency into the country, after seesawing production in recent years — largely the result of unrest — limited revenues. Power struggles have compounded years of neglect in developing or revamping the oil infrastructure. Still, the increase comes at a tricky time for the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, of which Libya is a member. The producer group and its allies on Thursday delayed a revival of its production for three months, amid faltering demand in China and booming supplies from the Americas. While Libya is exempt from the OPEC+ system of production caps, its production feeds into the group’s performance, adding to global supplies.

Russia’s Crude Oil Shipments Surge Ahead of OPEC+ Meeting Russia’s crude oil shipments jumped by 570,000 barrels per day (bpd) last week, to 3.36 million bpd, just ahead of the OPEC+ meeting which will discuss on Thursday the group’s production plans for early next year.More vessels loading from Russia’s western ports drove the surge in seaborne shipments in the week to December 1, according to tanker-tracking data monitored by Bloomberg.The four-week average crude oil exports by sea also rose, for the first time in three weeks, per the data reported by Bloomberg’s Julian Lee on Tuesday.In the four weeks to December 1, Russian crude oil shipments from its oil export terminals averaged 3.13 million bpd, up by 50,000 bpd compared to the four-week average to November 24, according to Bloomberg’s estimates.The four-week average is a less volatile figure than weekly shipments as it is less affected by adverse weather conditions and other short-lived disruptions.The Russian shipments from the western ports on the Baltic and Black Seas recovered in the week to December 1, after two weeks of below-normal activity, per Bloomberg’s analysis.During the previous week to November 24, Russia’s crude oil exports by sea fell in the four weeks compared to the previous four-week average by the steepest volume since July, amid lower shipments to India, tanker-tracking data analyzed by Bloomberg showed last week.As of November 24, Russian exports were at around a two-month low.Now the more volatile weekly jump in shipments in the week to December 1 comes as the OPEC+ group, including Russia, meet on December 5 to discuss production levels and supply to the market.The latest market speculation is that OPEC+ is discussing a three-month extension of its production cuts until the end of the first quarter of 2025, Reuters reported on Tuesday, citing unnamed sources from the group.

OPEC+ May Be Facing Long-Term Production Cuts -- OPEC+ has been withholding 2.2 million barrels of oil supply daily for well over a year now—and it might have to start thinking about these cuts as a long-term policy. The market just keeps refusing to respond to them as OPEC+ wants. The idea of the production cuts was the same as the idea of all OPEC cuts before them: curb supply, let demand take care of any perceived or real surplus, watch prices go up, and then release the withheld supply. It has always worked before. It should have worked again. But it didn’t. It isn’t working this time because of two things: algorithmic trading and unrealistic expectations about Chinese demand growth. The latter factor determined an overwhelmingly bearish sentiment among oil traders, and the former amplified it out of any reasonable proportions. Some analysts are warning that oil is underpriced and the market is in for a correction, but they are lonely voices in a sea of demand pessimism. It is in this context that OPEC+ delayed its latest meeting that was due to take place—virtually—on Sunday but will instead take place next Friday. The reason given for the delay was a scheduling conflict, but the group may want to use the extra time to think where it is going over a longer term than a month from now. Because there are precious few factors working for OPEC+ and its goal for higher oil prices.One of these factors is the fundamentals situation in oil. Demand for oil keeps surprisingto the positive while non-OPEC supply growth—except in Guyana—is not really living up to the hype, with growth in the U.S. shale patch set toslow down, despite Trump’s presidency. Yet no one trading oil seems to care much about fundamentals because they are watching China and its oil demand fluctuations.The other factor that could potentially aid OPEC+ in its efforts to make oil more expensive is geopolitics. A Trump presidency will probably mean tighter sanctions on Iran, and that would, in turn, mean fewer Iranian barrels reaching international buyers, which would additionally crimp supply, potentially boosting prices. Interestingly, traders are still ignoring this even as analysts step up the warnings.“We think that oil prices are about $5 per barrel undervalued relative to the fair value based on the level of inventories,” Goldman Sachs’ co-head of global commodities Dan Struyven toldReuters recently. Echoing the sentiment, Morgan Stanley’s Martijn Rats suggested in comments to the publication that the whole oil surplus “story” is not yet a fact—and may never become a fact because producers tend to respond to the risk of a surplus by curbing production.Still, prices remain depressed, and whenever they do inch up, they do so modestly in response to a production outage or an escalation in the Middle East or Ukraine—and these jumps never last. There’s always some news report about Chinese demand or the latest from the International Energy Agency that quickly puts an end to the climb.This means that OPEC+ may need to get used to the thought of more permanent supply limits. Instead of talking about policy revisions every month, it might want to make the period between these revisions longer, as it did at the start of the latest round of cuts. Instead of giving the market any hint of a suggestion it might start bringing back barrels, however unrealistic such a move may be, OPEC+ might want to eliminate this additional source of bearish sentiment.

Oil Undervalued as Market Faces Deficit, Iran's Supply at Risk, Analysts Warn (Reuters) — Oil prices are undervalued due to a market deficit, with the potential risk to Iran's supply from possible sanctions under U.S. President-elect Donald Trump, according to the heads of commodities research at Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley. "We think that oil prices are about $5 per barrel undervalued relative to the fair value based on the level of inventories," Daan Struyven, co-head of global commodities research at GS told reporters on Wednesday. The oil market is estimated to be in a deficit of about half-a-million barrels per day over the past year, Struyven said, adding that China and the U.S. are likely to continue restocking strategic reserves for energy security. He said these factors, along with lower output from OPEC+ producers and a potential tightening of sanctions on Iran that could cut supply by around 1 million barrels per day, could push oil prices higher in the short term. Brent is projected to peak at about $78 a barrel by next June, before easing to $71 by 2026, as there is significant spare capacity available to address supply shortages whenever needed, Struyven said. Brent crude futures LCOc1 are trading under $73 a barrel on Wednesday after Israel agreed to a ceasefire deal with Hezbollah while OPEC+ is discussing a delay in unwinding of production cuts. Martijn Rats, chief commodity strategist at Morgan Stanley, told Reuters last week that oil prices should be a couple of dollars higher as inventories are low. "We can point at some of this to demand weakness, but there's also been some supply weakness and in many ways this story about this looming surplus, is a story for next year," he said. While the oil supply surplus is expected to reach 1 million bpd next year, driven by non-OPEC+ output, there is no historical precedent for such a surplus, as producers typically cut output and demand increases when prices drop, Rats noted.

Iraq surpasses Saudi Arabia, Mexico in weekly oil exports to US - Iraqi News – The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) announced on Sunday that Iraq was the second-largest oil exporter to the United States during the past week, surpassing Saudi Arabia and Mexico. The EIA mentioned that the average US imports of crude oil during the past week from eight major countries reached approximately 5.65 million barrels per day, representing a decline of 1.08 million barrels per day compared to the previous week, when US oil imports reached 6.73 million barrels per day, Shafaq News reported. Iraq’s oil exports to the United States reached 277,000 barrels per day last week, representing an increase of 40,000 barrels per day compared to the previous week, when Iraq exported 237,000 barrels per day to the US. The EIA indicated that most of the United States imports of crude oil during the past week came from Canada at an average of 4.08 million barrels per day, followed by Venezuela with an average of 267,000 barrels per day and Saudi Arabia with an average of 248,000 barrels per day. The United States imported an average of 227,000 barrels per day from Brazil, 151,000 barrels per day from Mexico, 146,000 barrels per day from Nigeria, 142,000 barrels per day from Colombia, and 118,000 barrels per day from Ecuador.

Oil Futures Higher on Syrian Attacks, Delayed Opec+ Meeting - Oil futures for January delivery opened Monday higher as a civil war in Syria reignited when rebels took control of the country's second-largest city Aleppo, resulting in airstrikes from the Syrian government and Russia. Jets pounded the cities of Idlib and Aleppo, killing at least 25 people, according to the Syrian civil defense group that operates in opposition-held areas, the Associated Press reported Sunday.The escalating conflict raised concerns about a wider regional war, which could disrupt oil production and supply routes. Last week Israel and Lebanon agreed a cease-fire, which initially eased fears of disruptions in oil output from Middle Eastern producers. Separately, oil futures markets continued focusing on the upcoming OPEC+ plus meeting scheduled for this Thursday.The meeting was originally scheduled for Dec. 1, but was pushed back to Dec. 5 as several ministers of member countries attended the 45th Gulf Summit in Kuwait Sunday, according to an OPEC statement released last week.The group was expected to announce a gradual increase of 2.2 million barrels per day to the global markets in 2025, but that decision now appears to be unlikely.The uncertainty about China's demand recovery, expectations of tariff wars, the escalation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict and ample crude supplies from Libya and the U.S. are some other factors to influence OPEC + member's decision to bring back more barrels to the global markets by 2025.However, additional crude production from the oil cartel would place crude prices below $70, according to analysts.In economic news, the U.S. Bureau Labor Statistics is scheduled to announce unemployment data for November on Dec. 6. The unemployment rate in the U.S. was steady at 4.10% in October, but markets will focus more on learning about wage increases in November as this will influence the U.S. Federal Reserve's decision on interest rates. Oil futures remained bullish Monday also as Energy Information Administration data released last week showed commercial crude oil inventories in the U.S. fell 1.8 million barrels in the week ended Nov. 22. In contrast, both gasoline and distillate fuel inventories rose from the previous week, due to higher demand expectations ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday week, adding 212,000 barrels (bbls) and 114,700 bbls last week, respectively. Near 9:54 a.m. EST, WTI for January delivery was trading near $68.38 bbl, up $0.38, and February Brent crude contract was at $72.15 bbl up $0.31. January RBOB rose $0.0159 gal to $1.9147, and January ULSD edged up $0.0040 gal to $2.1964.

Oil steady, traders hopeful on China demand but worried about Fed (Reuters) - Oil prices were little changed on Monday, as hopes of stronger demand stemming from higher factory activity in China was largely offset by concerns that the U.S. Federal Reserve will not cut interest rates again at its December meeting. Brent crude futures settled 1 cent lower at $71.83 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude rose 10 cents, or 0.15%, to $68.10. A private sector survey showed China's factory activity expanded in November at the fastest pace in five months, boosting Chinese business optimism just as U.S. President-elect Donald Trump has ramped up trade threats. Meanwhile, a ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon, which took effect last Wednesday, appeared increasingly fragile. The Israeli military said on Monday it was currently striking "terror" targets in Lebanon amid mutual accusations of ceasefire violations between Israel and Lebanese armed group Hezbollah.The Pentagon said that despite some incidents, the ceasefire between Israel and Lebanese armed group Hezbollah was holding."Increased geopolitical risks remain. Even though the ceasefire is underway in Israel, it seems evident that there are some misconceptions about the legitimacy of the ceasefire," .Traders also watched developments in Syria, weighing whether recent escalation could widen tensions across the Middle East and affect supply.Both crude benchmarks fell more than 3% last week, pressured by easing supply concerns from the Israel-Hezbollah conflict and 2025 surplus forecasts, despite expected sustained output cuts.The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, together known as OPEC+, postponed the group's next meeting to Dec. 5. It will discuss delaying a planned oil output increase scheduled to start in January, OPEC+ sources told Reuters last week."Attention will be on the potential delay of the planned production hike, as an indefinite delay could alleviate downward pressure on prices," This week's meeting will decide policy for the early months of 2025."Money managers are sitting on the fence ... the market is looking for clarity between the implication of the forthcoming Trump administration and OPEC+ supply policy," Pressuring oil prices, Atlanta Federal Reserve President Raphael Bostic said he has an open mind about whether to cut interest rates again at the Fed's December meeting, with upcoming data on jobs important in shaping the decision.Higher interest rates increase the cost of borrowing, which can slow economic activity and dampen demand for oil.]Also pressuring oil, the dollar pushed higher again, after Trump on Saturday threatened 100% tariffs on BRICS member countries unless they commit to not creating a new currency or supporting another currency that could replace the dollar.A stronger greenback makes dollar-denominated oil more expensive for investors holding other currencies, hurting demand.

Uncertainty in the Market Ahead of the OPEC+ Meeting - The oil market ended the session slightly higher amid the uncertainty in the market ahead of the OPEC+ meeting later this week and an increasingly fragile ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon, which took effect last Wednesday. The crude market was well supported early in the session on optimism over strong factory activity in China. A private sector survey showed that China’s factory activity expanded at the fastest pace in five months in November. The market retraced some its losses seen in the previous week as it rallied to a high of $69.11 early in the session. However, the market gave up its gains and sold off to a low of $67.71 early in the afternoon amid the strength in the dollar. The January WTI contract retraced some of its losses ahead of the close and settled up 10 cents at $68.10, while the February Brent contract settled down 1 cent at $71.83. The product markets ended the session in mixed territory, with the heating oil market settling down 1.47 cents at $2.1777 and the RB market settled up 1.84 cents at $1.9172. Barclays said oil market fundamentals seem to be improving while heating demand for natural gas is expected increase sharply over the coming weeks. It maintained its long call spread recommendation in oil. It maintained its long $75-$80/barrel call spread recommendation on December 2025 Brent futures.The Israeli military said it was striking “terror” targets in Lebanon amid mutual accusations of ceasefire violations between Israel and Lebanese armed group Hezbollah.Syrian and Iraqi sources said hundreds of fighters from Iran-backed Iraqi militias crossed into Syria overnight to help the government fight rebels who seized Aleppo last week and Tehran pledged to aid Syria’s government. Two Iraqi security sources said at least 300 fighters, primarily from the Badr and Nujabaa groups, crossed the border late on Sunday. On Monday, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said Syria’s military was capable of confronting the rebels but added that “resistance groups will help and Iran will provide any support needed”. Any prolonged escalation in Syria risks further destabilizing a region already impacted by the conflicts in Gaza and Lebanon, with millions of Syrians already displaced and with regional and global powers backing rival forces in the country.Atlanta Federal Reserve President, Raphael Bostic, said he has an open mind about whether to cut interest rates again at the Fed’s December meeting, with upcoming data on jobs important in shaping the decision. In an essay also released on Monday, he said his base case remains that inflation will continue to fall to the Fed’s 2% target, though it remains an open question how far and how fast interest rates should be reduced to ensure that happens while avoiding any undue damage to the job market. Federal Reserve Governor, Christopher Waller, said he was inclined to cut the benchmark interest rate at the December 17^th-18^th meeting as monetary policy remained restrictive enough to keep putting downward pressure on inflation. At the same time, he said upcoming data on jobs, inflation and consumer spending could still sway him to pause if it appears that progress on inflation is stalling.

Oil Prices Rise Amidst Middle East Tensions And Economic Stimulus Expectations - Oil prices climbed on Tuesday in the global commodities market, driven by expectations of a U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate cut, optimism about economic recovery in China, and escalating tensions in the Middle East that heighten supply concerns. Brent crude rose to $72.22 per barrel, while the U.S. benchmark, West Texas Intermediate (WTI), reached $68.38 per barrel. These increases come ahead of a critical meeting of the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies (OPEC+), where members are expected to extend output cuts to counter risks of a global oil glut. Recent data from China has sparked optimism, suggesting an improvement in the country’s economic activity, bolstered by continued government support. This has raised hopes of increased oil demand from the world’s largest crude importer. In the U.S., anticipation surrounds the Federal Reserve’s meeting on December 18, with markets pricing in a 75% probability of a 25-basis-point interest rate cut. Lower interest rates typically stimulate economic activity, which could boost oil consumption and drive prices higher. Meanwhile, the fragile geopolitical landscape in the Middle East has intensified oil market anxieties. Despite a ceasefire agreement with Lebanon, Israel has resumed assaults, targeting Hezbollah missile platforms in southern Lebanon. The Israeli military confirmed bombing operations on Tuesday, reporting dozens of strikes on missile platforms. The attacks, occurring six days after the ceasefire, resulted in two fatalities, including a government official, and left many injured. The renewed violence threatens to disrupt oil supply routes, further supporting the rise in crude prices. As the OPEC+ meeting approaches, analysts expect the alliance to maintain its output cuts to stabilise prices. Combined with the potential for stronger demand from China and a more accommodative monetary policy in the U.S., oil prices are likely to remain volatile in the coming weeks. The convergence of geopolitical risks and economic drivers underscores the precarious balance of global energy markets, with the Middle East conflict and economic policies shaping the outlook for crude oil.

Oil rises on fears about Lebanon, further OPEC+ supply cuts (Reuters) - Oil prices rose more than 2% on Tuesday as Israel threatened to attack the Lebanese state if its truce with Hezbollah collapses, and as investors positioned for OPEC+ to announce an extension of supply cuts this week. Brent crude futures posted their biggest gains in two weeks, rising by $1.79, or 2.5%, to settle at $73.62 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures also rose the most since Nov. 18, gaining $1.84, or 2.7%, to close at $69.94 per barrel. Israeli forces have continued strikes against what they say are Hezbollah fighters ignoring last week's truce agreement in Lebanon. Top Lebanese officials have urged Washington and Paris to press Israel to uphold the ceasefire. The risk to the ceasefire has some oil traders worrying more about tensions in the Middle East, While the Lebanon conflict has not resulted in oil supply disruptions, traders will closely track tensions between Iran and Israel over the coming months, Also supporting oil prices, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies will likely extend output cuts when OPEC+ meets on Thursday. The group is likely to extend supply cuts until the end of the first quarter next year, four OPEC+ sources told Reuters. OPEC+, which accounts for about half of the world's oil production, has been looking to gradually unwind supply cuts through next year. However, the prospect of a market surplus has pressured oil prices, with Brent trading nearly 6% below its average for December 2023. An extension of OPEC+ supply cuts will limit the market surplus and provide the oil market a softer landing than most forecasts expected. "Given a rise in compliance with production cuts from Russia, Kazakhstan and Iraq, the lower Brent price level and indications in press reports, we assume an extension of OPEC+ production cuts til April," Goldman Sachs analysts said in a note. The global oil demand outlook remains weak and China's crude imports are likely to peak as early as next year as demand for transport fuel begins to decrease, researchers and analysts said. U.S. crude oil inventories rose 1.2 million barrels in the week ended Nov. 29, market sources said citing data from the American Petroleum Institute. Fuel stocks also rose, they said. Rising inventories typically indicate weak demand. "Oil is not going to be in short supply next year," "Demand growth rates will slow in 2025, and we cannot count on China to account for half the global oil demand," he said. "(Oil) prices will roll down a bit,".

Oil sees biggest daily gain in 2 weeks on bets OPEC+ will extend production cuts - Oil futures settled higher Tuesday, scoring their largest one-day gains in about two weeks as some traders expect the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies to further delay a partial unwinding of production cuts when they meet Thursday.

• -- West Texas Intermediate crude CL00 for January delivery CL.1 CLF25 rose $1.84, or 2.7%, to settle at $69.94 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
• -- February Brent crude BRN00 BRNG25, the global benchmark, climbed $1.79, or 2.5%, at $73.62 a barrel on ICE Futures Europe. Brent and WTI saw their biggest one-day dollar and percentage gains since Nov. 18, according to Dow Jones Market Data.
• -- January gasoline RBF25 tacked on 2.4% to $1.96 a gallon, while January heating oil HOF25 added 1.8% to $2.22 a gallon.
• -- Natural gas for January delivery NGF25 settled at $3.04 per million British thermal units, down 5.3%.

"Right now, we are in a period of significant change and uncertainty for global economies," said Stephen Innes, managing partner at SPI Asset Management. Among the uncertainties are numerous questions: "Will [President-elect Donald] Trump follow through with his tariff threats? How will this impact U .S. interest rates? Can China's demand recover in the face of an [electric-vehicle] conversion? Will Trump manage to broker peace in Eastern Europe? Will the dollar remain oppressively strong, weighing on commodity prices?"Innes noted that "currently, every shift in the oil markets is transient. No one truly knows what will happen next." For now, he said, "the strengthening U.S. dollar, especially against emerging-market currencies like India's and China's, alongside OPEC+ production uncertainties, counterbalances the nascent signs of economic recovery in China and ongoing geopolitical tensions."'The strengthening U.S. dollar ... alongside OPEC+ production uncertainties, counterbalances the nascent signs of economic recovery in China and ongoing geopolitical tensions.'Stephen Innes, SPI Asset Management OPEC+ ministers are set to meet Thursday after a meeting that had been set for Dec. 1 was postponed. OPEC+ had earlier this year approved a plan to begin unwinding around 2.2 million barrels a day of production cuts in October but has subsequently delayed that plan. At present, it's scheduled to take effect at the end of December, but it may be further pushed back due to softness in the crude market and fears that a production rise would add to a surplus. "I'm cautious not to overinterpret the OPEC delays, which seem tied to scheduling conflicts with the 45th Gulf Summit in Kuwait," Innes said. "The consensus on [Wall Street] is still that plans to increase oil supply will likely be postponed for another month, or possibly even two or three months, to gauge the U.S. oil patch's response to Trump's 'drill, baby, drill' policy." The probability for no change to production plans stands at 58.3%, while there's a 36.1% probability that the group of producers will further delay an output increase, according to the CME's OPEC Watch Tool.So far this year, WTI has fallen around 5%, based on the front-month contract, while Brent has declined nearly 7%, according to Dow Jones Market Data.Innes said the only risk he sees disrupting his forecast of Brent falling to $65 per barrel by the second quarter of next year is "an unexpected supply disruption, as I'm banking on increased U.S. oil production next year."

WTI Holds Gains After Big Surprise Crude Draw | Oil prices were limping lower this morning (after yesterday's surge) after the weak ISM Services print as traders await this week's OPEC+ decision. API

• Crude +1.23mm
• Cushing +112k
• Gasoline +4.62mm
• Distillates +1.01mm

DOE

• Crude -5.07mm - biggest draw since August
• Cushing +50k
• Gasoline +2.36mm
• Distillates +3.38mm - biggest build since July

Completely the opposite of API's reported small build, the official data showed a large crude draw last week, but products saw large builds... Graphics Source: Bloomberg Even with the large addition to the SPR - total crude stocks still drew down by the most since August... US Crude production held at 13.5mm b/d - a record high... Algorithmic traders have been dumping bearish positions after futures surpassed both the $70-a-barrel psychological level and the 50-day moving average, which have provided resistance for previous rallies, said Dennis Kissler, senior vice president for trading at BOK Financial Securities. WTI Is holding right around that $70 level...As Bloomberg's Grant Smith reports, even before OPEC+ ministers start tomorrow’s meeting on oil production, traders are looking beyond it.For the past week, the cartel led by Saudi Arabia and Russia has been holding preliminary talks to once again delay plans for reviving halted barrels.The group is firming up an agreement — to be finalized at Thursday’s gathering — that would push back a sequence of monthly hikes from January until the second quarter.Unfortunately for the alliance, crude traders already assumed the pause was unavoidable and have priced it in. Benchmark Brent futures have barely budged in the week since OPEC+ began negotiations, hovering around $74 a barrel.That could be complacency: The Saudis have a habit of springing bullish surprises to deter short sellers.Nonetheless, investors are looking past the decision, focusing on oil-market conditions in early 2025 — and those don’t augur well for prices.Global demand growth is cooling as top consumer China falters, while supplies from the US, Guyana and Canada are booming, according to the International Energy Agency. A hefty surplus looms, even if OPEC+ doesn’t add a single barrel next year.

The Uncertain Ceasefire Between Israel and Hezbollah - The oil market traded lower on Wednesday and retraced some of its recent gains ahead of the OPEC+ meeting on Thursday. The market was well supported in overnight trading and posted a high of $70.51 by the uncertain ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah, South Korea’s curtailed declaration of martial law and a rebel offensive in Syria that threatens to draw in forces from several oil producing countries. However, the market gave up its gains and retraced more than 62% of its move from Monday low of $67.71 to its high of $70.51 seen early in the morning as it posted a low of $68.49 ahead of the close. The January WTI contract settled down $1.40 at $68.54 and the February Brent contract settled down $1.31 at $72.31. The product markets ended the session lower in light of the larger than expected builds reported in distillates and gasoline stocks by the API and EIA. The heating oil market settled down 5.03 cents at $2.1674 and the RB market settled down 2.33 cents at $1.9391. The EIA reported that U.S. crude stocks fell by more than expected in the week ending November 29^th as refiners increased their operations, offsetting an increase in crude imports. Crude inventories fell by 5.1 million barrels on the week to 423.4 million barrels. U.S. crude oil production increased by 20,000 bpd to a record 13.513 million bpd in the week ending November 29^th. Refinery crude runs increased by 615,000 bpd last week, to their highest level since July 12^th. Net U.S. crude imports increased by 1.64 million bpd, while crude exports fell by 428,000 bpd to 4.24 million bpd.OPEC+ sources stated that OPEC+ is likely to extend its latest round of oil production cuts by at least three months from January when it meets online on Thursday. One of the OPEC+ sources said the group was also looking at an option to extend the cuts throughout the first half of next year and another said a deeper cut was not a likely option.IIR Energy reported that U.S. oil refiners are expected to shut in about 21,000 bpd of capacity in the week ending December 6^th, raising available refining capacity by 124,000 bpd. Offline capacity is expected to fall to zero in the week ending December 13^th.The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development said the world economy is set for steady growth in the next two years if resurgent protectionism does not derail a recovery in global trade. In its latest Economic Outlook, the OECD said the world economy is poised to grow 3.2% this year and 3.3% in 2025 and 2026 as lower inflation, job growth and interest rate cuts help offset fiscal tightening in some countries. Its latest forecasts were largely in line with its last review dating from September, when it had expected growth of 3.2% this and next year and did not yet have a forecast for 2026. As a cooling job market causes consumer spending to moderate, the OECD forecast that U.S. growth would ease from 2.8% this year to 2.4% in 2025 and 2.1% in 2026.

Oil prices end lower as investors look to OPEC+ decision -- U.S. oil futures finished lower Wednesday as pressure from uncertainty a day ahead of a decision by major oil producers on output levels outweighed support from weekly U.S. data showing a crude inventory drop of more than 5 million barrels. Investors also weighed news of deepening U.S. sanctions on Iranian oil exports.

• -- West Texas Intermediate crude for January delivery fell $1.40, or 2%, to settle at $68.54 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange after gaining 2.7% on Tuesday.
• -- February Brent crude, the global benchmark, lost $1.31, or 1.8%, at $72.31 a barrel on ICE Futures Europe.
• -- January gasoline RBF25 declined by 1.2% to $1.94 a gallon, while January heating oil HOF25 lost 2.3% to $2.17 a gallon.
• -- Natural gas for January delivery NGF25 settled at $3.04 per million British thermal units, up a fraction of a cent for the session.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, together known as OPEC+, are set to meet Thursday, after postponing a gathering that had been set for Dec. 1. OPEC+ had earlier this year approved a plan to begin unwinding around 2.2 million barrels a day of production cuts in October but subsequently delayed that plan. At present, the plan is scheduled to take effect at the end of December, but it is expected to be pushed back further due to softness in the crude market and fears that a production increase would add to a surplus. "While a delay to unwinding production cuts is expected, the rhetoric and guidance from the meeting will have the biggest influence," . Saudi Arabia is likely to keep its oil production tight and further push back plans to loosen it, the Wall Street Journal reported Wednesday, citing comments from Saudi officials. That report shows Saudi Arabia is "keen in keeping the market tight on the belief that they will be rewarded in the future for their fiscal and production sacrifices," . "The Saudi's must believe that demand will exceed current damped down expectations. They must expect that this demand increase will allow them to profit from a period of sustained higher prices for longer." Still, looking at the bigger picture for oil, traders are concerned about an eventual rise in supplies. President-elect Donald Trump will be taking office soon, U.S. energy regulations will be eased and oil drilling will increase, So even though the Saudis may not raise supplies in the short term, in the longer term it's just a "matter of time before they do and add a lot of supply to the markets," he said. Meanwhile, the U.S. Treasury Department on Tuesday announced sanctions on 35 entities and vessels that it said play a critical role in transporting Iranian petroleum to foreign markets. Other geopolitical developments have come into play as well. "Lebanon's cease-fire agreement appears fragile, and South Korea's political turmoil is amplifying crude's role as a hedge against geopolitical uncertainty," Against that backdrop, WTI and Brent oil futures climbed more than 2% on Tuesday. Israel on Tuesday said it would pursue a deeper war in Lebanon if its truce with Iran-backed Hezbollah collapsed, news reports said. Both sides have continued to fire on each other while trading accusations of violations of the agreement. In the U.S., the Energy Information Administration reported a bigger-than-expected decline of 5.1 million barrels in domestic commercial crude inventories for the week that ended Nov. 29. The report was expected to show a decline of 1.6 million barrels on average, according to a survey of analysts conducted by S&P Global Commodity Insights. Late Tuesday, the American Petroleum Institute reported a crude inventory increase of 1.2 million barrels, according to a source citing the data. The EIA also reported weekly supply increases of 2.4 million barrels for gasoline and 3.4 million barrels for distillates. The S&P Global Commodity Insights survey forecast inventory gains of 1.6 million barrels for gasoline and 800,000 barrels for gasoline. U.S. oil production was up by 20,000 barrels at 13.513 million barrels per day in the latest week, the EIA said, while crude stocks at the Cushing, Okla., Nymex delivery hub edged up by 100,000 barrels to 24.2 million barrels. Demand for gasoline rose, with total motor gasoline supplied, a proxy for demand, at 8.738 million barrels per day in the latest week, up from 8.506 million bpd a week earlier.

Crude Oil Prices Decline Amid Weak Demand In China And US - Crude oil prices dropped sharply on Thursday as weak demand projections from China and the United States—the world’s two largest oil consumers—sparked concerns in the global commodities market. Both nations are grappling with slowing economic performance, leading to expectations of reduced oil consumption. In the United States, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported an increase in strategic petroleum reserves, exerting downward pressure on prices. Brent crude fell to $72.33 per barrel, while the US benchmark, West Texas Intermediate (WTI), slipped to $68.46 per barrel. China’s economy has also shown signs of deceleration, with growth reaching 4.8% in the first nine months of 2024—falling short of the 5% annual target. November’s Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) revealed stagnation in the services sector, dropping 0.5 points month-on-month. The non-manufacturing PMI remained nearly static at 50.1, indicating limited momentum. Weak domestic demand and persistent deflationary pressures have further eroded China’s economic outlook, adding to concerns about reduced oil demand. In the US, economic signals also fueled bearish sentiment. The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) reported a 3.9-point decline in its services PMI, which fell to 52.1 in November—below market expectations. Additionally, October’s factory orders grew by a modest 0.2%, underperforming projections. EIA data also showed a 1.4 million-barrel rise in strategic petroleum reserves last week, reaching 391.8 million barrels, alongside a 2.4 million-barrel increase in gasoline inventories. These trends highlight weakening demand and contributed to the downward movement in oil prices. However, expectations of a US Federal Reserve interest rate cut helped temper the price decline. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell hinted at the possibility of rate adjustments, with market odds of a 25 basis point cut at the December 18 meeting rising to 78%. Attention is now shifting to the upcoming OPEC+ decision on oil production cuts for early 2025. The group is widely expected to extend its current supply cuts into the first quarter, a move that could help stabilize prices in the short term.

The OPEC+ Decision to Delay its Planned Output Increase - The oil market ended the session lower following the OPEC+ decision to delay its planned output increase by three months to April 2025. The market traded mostly sideways ahead of the OPEC+ meeting as it retraced some of Wednesday’s losses in overnight trading. However, the market sold off sharply to a low of $67.98 after a source said OPEC+ agreed to delay an output increase ahead of an official announcement as the meeting was still underway. The market, however, bounced off its low and traded to a high of $69.16 following the official OPEC+ announcement. Also, a weaker U.S. dollar lent some support to the market. The market later gave up most of the day’s gains and traded in and out of positive territory during the remainder of the session. The January WTI contract settled down 24 cents at $68.30 and the Brent contract settled down 22 cents at $72.09. The product markets ended the session in negative territory, with the heating oil market settling down 1.17 cents at $2.1557 and the RB market settling down 66 points at $1.9325.On Thursday, OPEC+ has agreed to keep oil production at the current levels for the first quarter of 2025. OPEC agreed to extend the 2 million bpd and the 1.65 million bpd of cuts until the end of 2026 from the end of 2025. The gradual unwinding of 2.2 million of cuts will start from April 2025 and will last until September 2026. The group also agreed to allow the United Arab Emirates to raise output by 300,000 bpd from April and until the end of September 2026, instead of the earlier plan to start it in January 2025.Russia’s Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said that the OPEC+ group had decided to extend output cuts in order not to destabilize the global energy market, amid weaker seasonal fuel demand. He also said that the compliance with production quotas among the OPEC+ countries is high, while the global oil market is stable due to, among other things, the OPEC+ actions, adding that OPEC+ expected global oil demand to increase by 1 million bpd in 2025.PJK/Insights Global reported that gasoline stocks in the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp storage hub in the week ending December 5^thincreased by 13.57% on the week and by 9.45% on the year to 1.297 million tons, while gasoil stocks fell by 5.59% on the week but increased by 20.34% on the year to 2.13 million tons and fuel oil stocks increased by 13.13% on the week and by 7.01% on the year to 1.344 million tons. Naphtha stocks increased by 10.64% on the week and by 190.36% on the year to 572,000 tons and jet kero stocks increased by 2.15% on the week and by 39.89% on the year to 996,000 tons.The number of Americans filing new applications for unemployment benefits increased moderately in the week ending November 30^th. The Labor Department said initial claims for state unemployment benefits increased by 9,000 on the week to a seasonally adjusted 224,000.

Oil prices settle lower despite OPEC+ delaying plans to boost production -- Oil prices settled lower Thursday, as concerns about growing supply of crude persisted, offsetting early gains following OPEC+'s decision to delay the restart of its oil production increases by three months. At 2:30 p.m. ET (19:30 GMT), Brent oil futures fell 0.3% to $72.09 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate crude futures fell 0.4% to $68.30 a barrel. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies (OPEC+) has decided to delay the restart of its oil production increases by three months, representing the third postponement as crude prices remain under pressure. The additional production of 180,000 barrels per day was expected to start in January, but will instead start in April, and be implemented at a slower pace than previously outlined. The OPEC+ had slashed production by over 2 million barrels in the past two years, and is expected to keep supply limited amid concerns over slowing oil demand, especially in top importer China. The OPEC+ has consistently cut its forecasts for global demand growth in 2024 and 2025, citing uncertainty over a sluggish economic recovery in China. The concerns about tepid demand come in the wake of fears that the crude market will tip into oversupply next year amid a jump non-OPEC production. Wells Fargo analysts predict a shift in global oil market dynamics by mid-2025, forecasting improved fundamentals and stronger prices following a period of oversupply. They estimate a surplus of 1 million barrels per day in the first half of 2025, despite OPEC+ production cuts. "Downside price risks exceed upside ones until mid-2025," the analysts noted, but they expect better conditions in the second half of the year. The bank maintains a long-term price forecasts of $80 for Brent and $75 for WTI, supported by decelerating US shale production and Saudi Arabia's preference for prices above $70 per barrel. US oil inventories fall, but products rise Government data released on Wednesday showed US oil inventories shrank by a bigger-than-expected 5.07 million barrels in the final week of November. But gasoline and distillate stockpiles rose, indicating that overall fuel demand was still cooling in the world’s biggest fuel consumer. While demand for heating fuels is expected to increase during the winter season, a downturn in travel activity is expected to bring down overall oil demand. Middle East region in focus Oil markets registered some gains this week as the Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire teetered on the brink of collapse, with reports of violations from both sides. Israel also threatened to escalate its offensive against Hezbollah and Lebanon if the truce fell through. Meanwhile, Donald Trump's Middle East envoy has travelled to Qatar and Israel to kick-start the US President-elect's diplomatic push to help reach a Gaza ceasefire and hostage release deal before he takes office on Jan. 20, according to a report by Reuters.

OPEC Delay Reflects Early 2025 Lull, Saudi Prince Tells CNBC - OPEC+’s decision to delay the revival of its oil production was aimed at offsetting a seasonal demand lull early next year, Saudi Arabia’s energy minister said. “The first quarter is not a good quarter to bring volumes,” Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman told CNBC in an interview. “That quarter is known to be a quarter for building stocks.” OPEC+ agreed on Thursday to postpone a series of modest output increases from January to April, and slow the pace of those hikes when they eventually begin. Global oil demand typically begins to ease in the first quarter once winter fuel consumption tails off. For several months, the group has been seeking to restore output halted over the past two years, but been frustrated as faltering demand in China and swelling supplies from the Americas pressure crude prices. Many analysts predict that global oil markets will still face a surplus in 2025 even if OPEC+ doesn’t raise output. Despite deciding to postpone, Prince Abdulaziz said that the alliance “honestly believe the market next year will be better than what is being projected.” Oil traders have shown a lukewarm reception to Thursday’s decision, with futures declining in London to a two-week low below $72 a barrel.

Oil prices edge down as extended OPEC+ supply cuts highlight weak demand - Oil prices edged lower on Friday, with weak demand in focus after the OPEC+ group postponed planned supply increases and extended deep output cuts to the end of 2026. Brent crude futures fell 6 cents, or 0.1%, to $72.03 per barrel by 0336 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures lost 1 cent to $68.29 per barrel. For the week, Brent was on track to drop more than 1%, while WTI hung on to a marginal 0.1% gain.29dk2902l The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies on Thursday pushed back the start of oil output rises by three months until April and extended the full unwinding of cuts by a year until the end of 2026. The group, known as OPEC+ and responsible for about half of the world’s oil output, was planning to start unwinding cuts from October 2024, but a slowdown in global demand – especially in China – and rising output elsewhere have forced it to postpone the plan several times. “Sidelining the surprise drawdown in US crude stockpiles last week and OPEC+ extending plans to ramp up output until September 2026, oil prices eased further amid growing concerns over dented global demand and oversupplied markets,” said Priyanka Sachdeva, senior market analyst at Phillip Nova. “With growing concerns over global demand for oil in 2025, even the softening of the US Dollar in the last couple of sessions doesn’t seem to mend the floor beneath oil prices,” she said. The latest extension puts OPEC+ output below major banks’ previous forecasts, which could provide some support for the market going forward, analysts at energy-focused consultancy FGE said. However, concerns that supply will still outstrip demand even going into next year weighed on prices further. Macquarie analysts modeled Saudi Arabian oil production remaining in the low-9 million bpd range in 2025, but expected that even with that supply discipline the market would be oversupplied by more than 1 million bpd. “Looking into next year, we forecast a heavy surplus, as non-OPEC supply growth is anticipated to meet the below-trend demand growth, lowering the call on OPEC supply and limiting the need for OPEC+ to reverse voluntary cuts,” they said in a client note. Markets were also looking out for the U.S. nonfarm payrolls report due later on Friday, to see whether it would support expectations of a rate cut at the U.S. Federal Reserve’s next meeting. The market is pricing in a 72% chance that the Fed will deliver a 25-basis-point rate cut when it meets on Dec. 17-18, up from 66.5% a week ago, CME FedWatch tool showed. .

Oil prices fall on supply glut fears despite OPEC+ output cut extension (Reuters) - Oil prices fell by more than 1% on Friday and cemented weekly losses as analysts projected a supply surplus next year on weak demand despite an OPEC+ decision to delay output hikes and extend deep production cuts to the end of 2026.Brent crude futures settled at $71.12 a barrel, shedding 97 cents, or 1.4%. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures settled at $67.20 a barrel, falling $1.10, or 1.6%.For the week, Brent prices lost more than 2.5%, while WTI saw a drop of 1.2%. A rising number oil and gas rigs deployed in the United States this week, pointing to rising production from the world's biggest crude producer, also pushed prices lower.On Thursday, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, a group known as OPEC+, pushed back the start of oil output rises by three months until April and extended the full unwinding of cuts by a year until the end of 2026.Weak global oil demand and the prospect of OPEC+ ramping up production as soon as prices rise have weighed on trading, "They're just waiting for better pricing and once they get that, they're going to start jumping in again," OPEC+, which is responsible for about half of the world's oil output, was planning to start unwinding cuts from October 2024, but a slowdown in global demand - especially from top crude importer China - and rising output elsewhere have forced it to postpone the plan several times."While OPEC+'s decision to hold off strengthens fundamentals in the near term, it could be seen as an implicit admission that demand is sluggish," analysts at HSBC Global Research said.Bank of America forecast that increasing oil surpluses will drive the price of Brent to an average $65 a barrel in 2025, while oil demand growth will rebound to 1 million barrels per day (bpd) next year, the bank said in a note on Friday.HSBC, meanwhile, now expects a smaller oil market surplus of 0.2 million bpd, from 0.5 million bpd previously, it said in a note.Brent has largely stayed in a tight range of $70-$75 per barrel in the past month, as investors weighed weak demand signals in China and heightened geopolitical risk in the Middle East."The general narrative is that the market is stuck in its rather narrow range. While immediate developments might push it out of this range on the upside briefly, the medium-term view remains rather pessimistic," PVM analyst Tamas Varga said.Also pressuring prices was the U.S. rig count, which grew for the first time in eight weeks, energy services firm Baker Hughes said on Friday in its closely followed report.Baker Hughes said oil rigs rose five to 482 this week, their highest level since mid-October, while gas rigs rose by two to 102, the highest since early November.Despite this week's rig increase, Baker Hughes said the total count was still down 37, or 6% below this time last year.A mixed U.S. jobs report, which showed a strong rebound in hiring but also a slight rise in the unemployment rate, extended oil's losses.

Oil prices end at their lowest in 3 weeks after OPEC+ fails to allay supply worries -Oil futures settled Friday at their lowest in three weeks, a day after a decision by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies to further postpone a planned reversal of production cuts failed to allay fears of a crude surplus.

• -- West Texas Intermediate crude for January delivery fell $1.10, or 1.6%, to settle at $67.20 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, leading to a 1.2% weekly fall for the front-month contract, according to Dow Jones Market Data.
• -- February Brent crude, the global benchmark, dropped 97 cents, or nearly 1.4%, to $71.12 a barrel on ICE Futures Europe, losing 1% on the week. Brent and WTI marked their lowest settlements since Nov. 15.
• -- January gasoline RBF25 lost 1.4% to $1.91 a gallon but ended 0.4% higher for the week, while January heating oil HOF25 shed 1.1% to $2.13 a gallon, for a weekly loss of 2.7%.
• -- Natural gas for January delivery NGF25 settled at $3.08 per million British thermal units, down 0.1% Friday, contributing to an 8.5% weekly loss.

"For the time being, OPEC's hands are tied," said Joseph Sykora, client portfolio manager and head of private investments at Aptus Capital Advisors. "Current demand is insufficient to meet free-market supply," he told MarketWatch late Thursday. "The market simply can't absorb OPEC's 6.5 million barrels per day of spare capacity without cratering price, which would be detrimental to many OPEC members' budget deficits, most of all Saudi Arabia." OPEC+ on Thursday agreed to again delay the unwinding of 2.2 million barrels a day of production cuts, postponing the start of the phaseout from January until April.Traders are "left assessing whether these moves are enough to counterbalance global demand and excessive supply challenges," Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst at City Index and Forex.com, said in market commentary. The lack of a more positive response in oil prices "shows the market is disappointed," he said.Anticipation of OPEC+'s move had provided support for crude earlier in the week, leaving the market vulnerable to profit-taking after the event occurred. Crude ended lower on Thursday.While the action taken by OPEC+ "eats quite heavily into the surplus" that was expected during 2025, the "extension and the slower return of barrels is not enough to push the market into deficit next year," Warren Patterson, head of commodities strategy at ING, said in a Friday note.The move still leaves the market in surplus in the first half of 2025, "although admittedly the surplus is more manageable" at around 500,000 barrels a day, versus 1 million barrels a day previously, he said.That means that downside for Brent is probably more limited in 2025 than previously thought, he said. ING now expects ICE Brent to average $71 a barrel next year, up from its previous forecast of $69 a barrel.Meanwhile, OPEC's hope may be for U.S. President-elect Donald Trump to reinstate sanctions on Iran, "wiping out the approximately 1.5 million bpd of supply that has come back online since the Biden administration took office," Sykora said. "That would give cover for OPEC to increase production without a material impact on price."U.S. producers are 'price sensitive, just like OPEC countries. They know they can't shove supply into an unwilling market without breaking the price.'Joseph Sykora, Aptus Capital AdvisorsSykora also said that while Trump is "certainly pro-hydrocarbon, there is little he can do to increase domestic production."U.S. producers are "price sensitive, just like OPEC countries. They know they can't shove supply into an unwilling market without breaking the price - an outcome both capital markets and OPEC won't tolerate," Sykora said. Data released Friday may have also contributed to oil's price decline. Baker Hughes Co. (BKR) reported that the number of active U.S. rigs drilling for oil was up by five to 482 this week. That suggests an upcoming increase in oil production.

Russia Accuses Ukraine of Supporting Al-Qaeda-Linked Fighters in Syria - On Tuesday, Russian Ambassador to the UN Vassily Nebenzia accused Ukraine of supporting militants in Syria fighting under the command of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), an al-Qaeda offshoot that led the takeover of Aleppo.The accusation came a few days after the Kyiv Post reported that Islamist groups based in Idlib that are taking part in the offensive have received training from the Khimik group, a special unit of Ukraine’s Main Intelligence Directorate (abbreviated GUR or HUR).“Ukrainian military instructors from the GUR are present… training HTS fighters for combat operations,” Nebenzia said at the UN. He said HTS has “not only not concealed the fact that they are supported by Ukraine, but they are also openly flaunting this.”The Kyiv Post report cited posts on Islamist social media sites and said the GUR has trained HTS militants on tactics developed during the Ukraine war, including the use of drones. The Kyiv Post also cited a Ukrainian intelligence source who claimed the GUR’s Khimik group was responsible for a September 15 attack on a Russian military base outside of Aleppo.It was around that same time that Russian media reported that Ukraine had sent around 250 military specialists to Idlib to train extremist fighters. “The Ukrainian military is training militants affiliated with the Turkistan Islamic Party (TIP) under the command of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham for the use of drones, and technologies to develop them with regard to the ability to increase flight speeds, photography and targeting,” a source told Sputnik on September 17. TIP is a Uyghur militant group founded in Pakistan that seeks to create an Islamic state in China’s Xinjiang province and has a branch in Syria. TheKyiv Post report also mentioned TIP as one of the groups the GUR has trained.

Russia Accuses Ukraine Of Supporting AQ-Linked Fighters In Syria, & There Is Some Evidence While the issue of potential Ukrainian government support to Syria's Al Qaeda spin-off Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) has remained subject of intense speculation and rumor, Moscow has made the allegation official. Russian Ambassador to the UN Vassily Nebenzia issued a statement accusing Ukraine of stoking the armed insurgency which seeks to take over Syrian territory and threaten Assad. "Ukrainian military instructors from the GUR are present… training HTS fighters for combat operations," Nebenzia said at the UN on Tuesday. He went on to assert that HTS has "not only not concealed the fact that they are supported by Ukraine, but they are also openly flaunting this." Reports and images of Ukrainian equipment and drones in the hands of the jihadists during the capture of Aleppo have persisted for days. Nebenzia also turned his criticisms against UN officials for being "unable to summon the courage to call a spade a spade and to condemn these terrorist attacks" against Syria. A surprise report on December 1st in the staunchly pro-Ukraine Kyiv Post suggested this is all part of Ukrainian intelligence efforts to hit out at Russian targets outside the immediate theatre of the Ukraine war:According to reports on some Islamist social media sites, the rebel groups based in the Idlib region – which is said to include members of the Turkestan Islamic Party (TIP) – had received operational training from special forces troops from the Khimik group of Ukraine’s Main Intelligence Directorate (HUR). The training team focused on tactics developed during the war in Ukraine, including on the use of drones. HUR’s Khimik group was credited with the attack on a Russian military base on the southeastern outskirts of Aleppo on Sept. 15, in which Russian attack drones and “camouflaged improvised explosive devices,” were destroyed according to a Kyiv Post military intelligence source.That's when the Kyiv Post report, with the title Ukrainian Trained, Turkish Sponsored Syrian Rebels Lead Assault on Aleppo, detailed the following:It has been suggested that these Ukrainian special forces advisors are providing support to the current opposition attacks but there has been no independent verification of any such involvement.The suggestion of Ukrainian involvement could be seen as part of a broader trend of Kyiv’s forces targeting Russian forces abroad, including alleged direct support for an Islamist militia attack on Russian Wagner Group mercenaries and government forces on July 26 in Mali. Indeed reports of potential Ukrainian assistance to the jihadists based in Idlib have focused on drone usage, and additional damning evidence has appeared of late in the NY Times, such as in the following...State Department Syria regime change asset Mouaz Moustafa just told the NY Times he had advance notice of the Al Qaeda/HTS assault on Aleppo, and that it was coordinated with Ukraine's post-Maidan regime https://t.co/6Qz8Rf3TTw pic.twitter.com/EOBrxMf0ZpMouaz Moustafa is founder and head of the Syrian Emergency Task Force (SETF), which has long worked closely with US Congress and Western governments to arm anti-Assad fighters since the beginning of the war after 2011. As for the above mentioned Turkestan Islamic Party (TIP), it is among the most brutal terror groups which has long cooperated and associated with ISIS, or whichever Islamist faction happens to hold dominance in the region. It has long sought to also create an Islamic state in China’s Xinjiang province, and its fighters have poured into northern Syria over the years. If the Kyiv Post reporting is accurate, and Ukraine's intelligence directorate trained TIP militants, China would no doubt be intensely interested, and outraged.

Al-Qaeda Linked Militants Seize Major Syrian City of Hama - Just over a week after taking Aleppo, the Syrian Islamist fighters led by the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) have seized another major city. This time,they have taken Hama, Syria’s fourth largest city, which had not fallen during the protracted Syrian Civil War.Senior commander of HTS forces, Hassan Abdul-Ghani, said tanks were used in the assault and that “hundreds of unjustly imprisoned individuals” were freed from the Hama Central Prison.Last week HTS and allies stoked apprehension when they seized the northern city of Aleppo, the nation’s second largest. Syria’s Army has tried to slow their advance with counterattacks, but so far has had limited success.The army confirmed it had redeployed out of Hama after reports of intense fighting, saying it did to so to avoid exposing civilians to battles. The army statement also reported suffering “heavy losses.”The HTS offensive has been backed strongly by the Turkey-backed rebels from the country’s northwest. There have been multiple reports thatTurkey is backing the offensive, and indeed that Turkey may even be the driving force in the recent push. HTS fighters seem increasingly well-equipped and confirmed as using tanks in their assault on Hama.With Hama taken, many analysts say that the next major target would be the city of Homs. That would be an obvious next step, as HTS continues their offensive south along the major M5 highway from Aleppo. Homs is just 25 km south of Hama. If Homs fell too, it is likely the capital city of Damascus would also be under major risk.Senior HTS commanders have made online posts announcing their gains, and one post called on the residents of Homs to rise up in revolution. HTS leader Abu Mohammad al-Julani has also released a video statement threatening to expand the war into Iraq if the Iraqi militia coalition Hashd al-Shaabi gets involved.

Al-Qaeda Linked Militants Advance, ‘Encircle Damascus’ - On Thursday, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) Islamist militants captured the major city of Hama, just days after the fall of Aleppo. As some HTS forces entered the city, others continued south, circling the city en route to Homs and ultimately Damascus. HTS is a merger of assorted Sunni Islamist factions, and it has historic ties to al-Qaeda. (Its leader, Abu Mohammad al-Juliani, founded al-Qaeda in Syria, later Jabhat al-Nusra, still later the core of HTS.) The group has already seized, Aleppo, Syria’s most populous city, and Hama, fourth largest. Two days later, HTS’s staggering territorial gains continue as the militants are now attacking Homs, Syria’s third largest city, and have already reached the Damascus suburbs. Damascus is Syria’s capital and second most-populous city.The obvious next step after the fall of Hama was to advance southward and attack the city of Homs. Taking Hama and Homs effectively isolates the Alawites, Assad’s ruling group, on the coast, removing them as an obstacle to HTS al-Qaeda’s stated goal of taking Damascus.It was just Saturday morning when HTS fighters first entered Homs itself,and by the evening they had reported capturing Homs. As the city is heavily defended, considerable fighting is expected, and thousands of residents have fled in anticipation of major conflict, adding to the general chaos.Perhaps even more significant than the advance on Homs is that HTS forces have taken provinces further south. They say they have taken the Quneitra Province, which borders the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights. Thesouthern cities of Deraa and Suwayda, near the Jordanian border, have also fallen. There are also reports that the ancient city of Palmyra, further to the east, has fallen.Turkey has been increasingly public about their backing of the HTS with an eye toward regime change. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has been saying Damascus is the goal for the extremist movement. The HTS has also reportedly been courting Israel for support.Israel seems supportive of the idea of Islamist jihadists taking over a country on their border, though it has shored up IDF forces along the Golan Heights. Israel is said to be preparing for the collapse of the Assad government.Israel has warned Iran against sending arms to the Assad government. Iran has reportedly begun evacuating some of personnel from Syria in the event the fighting worsens. Iraq is reportedly also considering sending aid to Assad, though HTS has threatened to expand the war into Iraq if they get involved.The official US position is that it prefers HTS to Assad, with National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan saying the US “won’t cry” if Syria is taken over by al-Qaeda linked militants. The US also sees this as an opportunityfor the Kurdish SDF to seize territory further east.Though the US still considers HTS a terrorist organization, it seems increasingly comfortable with the group. Historically, the US has funded multiple of the organizations which eventually merged into the HTS, with billions of dollars spent arming and training them with the ultimate goal of regime change. The current admission that the US prefers HTS to Assad, then, isn’t so much a change to long-standing policy as a willingness to publicly state so.

Report: Syrian Islamists Court Israel With Talk of Peace Deal - Former Israeli military intelligence officer Lt. Mordechai Kedar has added fuel to claims that Israel has ties with the Syrian Islamist fighters who have taken the city of Aleppo and surrounding area in the past week. Lt. Kedar says he is in “constant contact” with the Islamists and that they “do not consider Israel an enemy.” The talk of Israeli complicity with the Islamist offensive began virtually when the offensive started attracting attention. On Saturday the Syrian Army issued a statement saying that they are effectively fighting “the military arm of the Israeli enemy, falsely labeled as the ‘Syrian revolution.’”This is a particularly dramatic claim because the Islamists are led by the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), which was formed by the merger of various Islamist organizations built around Syria’s branch of al-Qaeda. Indeed, the former Syrian al-Qaeda leader Abu Mohammad al-Julani is the present leader of HTS.But Lt. Kedar offers considerable detail about the ties with the HTS, however, referring to them as “Syrian revolutionaries” and insisting that they “must be supported.” Israel sees them as having a common interest in regime change in Syria.That doesn’t stop at the Syrian border either. The Islamists reportedly told Lt. Kedar that they are ready for a peace deal with Israel after they take over all of Syria and Lebanon. They also said they plan to open Israeli embassies in both Damascus and Beirut.How far the contact goes right now isn’t totally clear, but Lt. Kedar did say that he recently passed a “detailed” list of requested items from the Islamist forces to the Israeli government. He didn’t say what items were requested.

Israel Again Bombs Lebanon as Netanyahu Says War Is Not Over - Israel launched more strikes on southern Lebanon on Tuesday despite a ceasefire deal that was supposed to take effect last Wednesday as Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said the war with Hezbollah is not over.Israeli strikes included an attack on the town of Shebaa, which killed a shepherd. According to The Associated Press, the death brought the total number of people killed by Israel in Lebanon since last Wednesday to 15.The heaviest day of Israeli bombing took place on Monday after Hezbollah fired back for the first time, launching two rockets toward Israeli-occupied territory in a “warning” shot in response to Israeli violations. A UNIFIL source told CNN on Monday that Israel violated the ceasefire around 100 times at that point, and the US and France have also reportedly conveyed that they believe Israel was violating the truce.Israel has claimed it’s responding to Hezbollah violating the ceasefire, pointing to the group’s presence in activity in southern Lebanon. But the ceasefire deal gave Hezbollah 60 days to withdraw its fighters and heavy weapons north of the Litani River. During that time, Israel is supposed to withdraw its forces from Lebanon, and the Lebanese Army is deploying troops to enforce the truce.“We are currently in a ceasefire, I note, a ceasefire, not the end of the war,” Netanyahu said on Tuesday. “We have a clear goal to return the residents, to rehabilitate the north. We are enforcing this ceasefire with an iron fist, acting against any violation, minor or serious.”The US State Department justified Israel’s ceasefire violations by saying Israel has the right to “defend itself.” State Department spokesman Vedant Patel was asked on Tuesday if the same right applies to Lebanon and refused to answer. The US gave assurances to Israel that it could strike Lebanon if it deemed the ceasefire deal was being violated.Israeli Foreign Minister Israel Katz threatened on Tuesday that if the war escalates, Israel will push deeper into Lebanese territory and target the Lebanese government. “If we return to war, we will act with strength, go deeper,” he said. “there will no longer be any exemptions for the State of Lebanon. If until now we separated the State of Lebanon from Hezbollah – and the entirety of Beirut from Dahiyeh, which took very hard hits – this will no longer be the case.”

After Days of Israeli Strikes on Lebanon That Violated Truce, Hezbollah Fires Back - Israel has launched dozens of strikes in Lebanon since a ceasefire was supposed to go into effect last week, and on Monday, Hezbollah fired back for the first time, launching two rockets toward Israeli-occupied territoryas a “warning” shot, causing no casualties. Now, Israeli officials are vowing a major response, signaling Israel will use Hezbollah’s response to repeated Israeli ceasefire violations as a reason to escalate. “Hezbollah’s firing at Mount Dov constitutes a serious violation of the ceasefire, and Israel will respond forcefully,” Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said in a statement. “We are determined to continue enforcing the ceasefire, and to respond to any violation by Hezbollah — a minor one will be treated like a major one.” Shortly after Netanyahu’s threat, Israel carried out a series of airstrikes on areas of south Lebanon, killing at least five people. A source with the UN’s peacekeeping force in Lebanon, UNIFIL, told CNNthat Israel has violated the ceasefire agreement “approximately 100” times since it went into effect last Wednesday. The Lebanese government said Israel had violated it over 50 times. The Israeli violations have involved gunfire, artillery shelling, and airstrikes. According to Al Jazeera, Israel strikes since last Wednesday have killed 11 people. Hezbollah said that the rockets it fired on Monday were “defensive” warning shots in response to Israel killing and wounding civilians. Israeli officials have claimed that Hezbollah’s presence and activity in southern Lebanon is a ceasefire violation, but the agreement gives Hezbollah 60 days to move its fighters and heavy weapons north of the Litani River. During that time, Israel is also supposed to withdraw from towns in southern Lebanon.According to CNN, both the US and France have warned Israel that they believe the Israeli military has violated the ceasefire agreement. Axiosreported that the US has told Israel the ceasefire deal may unravel. The US shares some of the blame for the Israeli violations since it provided Israel with a letter to assure the Israeli military could launch unilateral strikes on Lebanon if it deemed the ceasefire was being violated. The assurances from the US, Israel’s biggest backer, were given separately from the actual agreement signed between Israel and Lebanon.

The Kind Of Ceasefire Where One Side Keeps Firing -Caitlin Johnstone - In less than a week of its supposed “ceasefire” agreement Israel has reportedly attacked targets in Lebanon around a hundred times, leading to a single retaliation from Hezbollah on Monday which resulted in zero casualties. As you might expect, Israel is now playing victim and shrieking bloody murder, vowing a major response against Hezbollah for daring to strike back while Israel violated its ceasefire agreement dozens of times. Apparently this was the kind of ceasefire where only one side has to actually cease firing. This is such a perfect example of everything Israel is. Scrolling through Twitter this morning I saw an Al Jazeera clip documenting evidence that IDF drones have been playing the sounds of crying babies to lure civilians out of their hiding places so they can be shot and killed, and then I sawa photo that an IDF soldier reportedly uploaded to his own social media depicting himself masturbating while gazing at the destruction of Gaza. I am not a religious person, so I don’t really resonate with words like “demonic” and “satanic” to describe Israeli criminality. But at the same time, I kind of get it. What adjectives are there to describe things like this? “Evil” is a pathetic understatement. Language fails. They’re not just depraved, they’re creative and enthusiastic about constantly finding new and innovative ways in which to be depraved. I love words and language more than probably anyone I know, but words always fail me on this front.

Former Israeli Defense Minister Says Israel Is Carrying Out Ethnic Cleansing in Northern Gaza - A former Israeli defense minister has said Israel is conducting an ethnic cleansing campaign in northern Gaza, where Israeli troops are forcibly expelling civilians under the threat of death. Moshe Yaalon, a former member of the ruling Likud party, was defense minister under Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu from 2013 to 2016 during the 2014 Gaza War. In comments on Saturday, Yaalon criticized the current Netanyahu government.“The path they’re dragging us down is to occupy, annex, and ethnically cleanse — look at the northern strip,” Yaalon said.When asked to clarify if he meant Israel is currently conducting ethnic cleansing or is headed in that direction, Yaalon pointed to what is happening on the ground in northern Gaza today.“There’s no Beit Lahia. There’s no Beit Hanoun. They’re now operating in Jabalia. They’re basically cleaning the territory of Arabs,” he said.The northern cities of Beit Lahia, Beit Hanoun, and Jabalia have been under a total siege since early October as part of an ethnic cleansing campaign that’s following an outline known as the “general’s plan.” In those areas, Israeli troops are demolishing homes, so Palestinian civilians have nowhere to return. Yaalon’s comments sparked a strong backlash in Israel, but he doubled down on Sunday. In another interview, the former defense minister said the term ethnic cleansing was “accurate” and asked “no other word for it.”

Amnesty International documents genocidal intent of Israeli leaders -Amnesty International, one of the world’s largest human rights organizations, has formally accused Israel of carrying out genocide in Gaza in a report published Wednesday. Since October 2023, Israel has killed at least 44,580 people in Gaza, according to official statistics, and the death toll has been estimated to be as high as 186,000 or more in a study published in The Lancet. In its exhaustive 296-page report, Amnesty International demonstrated that this mass killing was motivated by genocidal intent, which permeated from the top of the Israeli government to the soldiers doing the killing. The report brings together video, photographic, and textual evidence of hundreds of instances in which Israeli officials and members of the military made oral or written statements expressing their intention to kill the Palestinian people, drive them out of Gaza, and take their land. Summarizing the report, Amnesty International wrote, “Israeli forces have caused unprecedented destruction, at a level and speed not seen in any other conflict in the 21st century, leveling entire cities and destroying critical infrastructure, agricultural land, and cultural and religious sites, rendering large swathes of Gaza uninhabitable.” It declares that “Israeli forces have carried out acts prohibited under the Genocide Convention, with the specific intent to destroy Palestinians in Gaza.” Secretary-General of Amnesty International Agnès Callamard said, “Month after month, Israel has treated Palestinians in Gaza as a subhuman group unworthy of human rights and dignity, demonstrating its intent to physically destroy them.” The report, entitled “You Feel Like You Are Subhuman: Israel’s Genocide Against Palestinians in Gaza,” describes the “killing of civilians, destruction of civilian infrastructure, forcible displacement, the obstruction or denial of life-saving goods and humanitarian aid by Israel in Gaza.” More than 1.9 million people, or 90 percent of Gaza’s population, have been internally displaced. In a report last month, the UN’s human rights office alleged that 70 percent of verified deaths in Gaza were among women and children. “In isolation, these are serious violations of international humanitarian law or international human rights law,” declared the Amnesty Internatioanl report. “But looking at the broader picture of Israel’s military campaign and the cumulative impact of its policies and acts, the conclusion we came to is genocidal intent.” Callamard stated, “Our damning findings must serve as a wake-up call to the international community: this is genocide. It must stop now.” The report alleges that “The government of Israel imposed conditions of life in Gaza that created a deadly mixture of malnutrition, hunger, and diseases, and exposed Palestinians to a slow, calculated death.” It also claims that “The government of Israel also subjected hundreds of Palestinians from Gaza to incommunicado detention, torture, and other ill-treatment.” Explaining its methodology, the Amnesty report declared, “a finding of genocide may be drawn when the state intends to pursue the destruction of a protected group in order to achieve a certain military result, as a means to an end, or until it has achieved it.” The report demonstrates the systematic, nonstop way in which Israeli officials have publicly encouraged the extermination of the Palestinian people. The report notes: Among those who made such statements was Prime Minister Netanyahu, who referred on at least three occasions to the biblical story of the total destruction of the people of Amalek (also known as the Amalekites), killed in an act of revenge for their attack on the Israelites. The Amnesty International report demonstrates, moreover, that these were not merely overheated rhetorical statements made by Israeli leaders, but permeated all sections of the command structure of the Israeli army.

Gaza's Civil Defense Says Nearly 100 Killed by Israeli Attacks Over 24 Hours - Gaza’s Civil Defense said Sunday that Israeli attacks killed nearly 100 over the previous 24 hours as Israeli strikes continued to hit targets across the Strip. “Nearly 100 martyrs were killed in the Gaza Strip within 24 hours as a result of the continuous Israeli bombing operations on homes and citizens’ gatherings,” the agency said, according to Al Jazeera. Gaza’s Health Ministry put out a lower death toll in its daily update, saying 47 were killed, based on the number of dead and wounded Palestinians brought to hospitals. “The Israeli occupation committed six massacres against families in the Gaza Strip, resulting in 47 martyrs and 108 injuries arriving at hospitals during the past 24 hours,” the ministry wrote on Telegram.The ministry noted that there are a “number of victims” trapped under the rubble or in areas where rescue crews cannot reach them. The Civil Defense statement said it has been unable to work in northern Gaza, which has been under siege since early October as part of Israel’s ethnic cleansing campaign.“Until this moment, civil defense crews are prevented from exercising their duties in northern Gaza, and this has led to hundreds of citizens remaining under the rubble,” the agency said.The Civil Defense statement said the most deaths occurred in an Israeli strike on a house sheltering displaced Palestinians in Jabalia, northern Gaza, on Saturday. More than 40 Palestinians were killed in the attack.Also on Saturday, an Israeli strike on a vehicle in the southern city of Khan Younis killed five people, including three aid workers with the US-based World Central Kitchen. Israel claimed without evidence that one of the aid workers was a “terrorist.” WCK said that it suspended its operations in Gaza following the strike. “We are heartbroken to share that a vehicle carrying World Central Kitchen colleagues was hit by an Israeli air strike in Gaza,” the group said in a statement.

Israel-Hamas war: UN halts aid deliveries through Gaza’s main crossing after looting (AP) — The U.N. agency for Palestinian refugees said Sunday it is halting aid deliveries through the main cargo crossing into the war-ravaged Gaza Strip because of the threat of armed gangs who have looted convoys. It blamed the breakdown of law and order in large part on Israeli policies. In Israel, a former defense minister and fierce critic of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu — and a hard-liner on the Palestinians — accused the government of ethnic cleansing in northern Gaza, where a military offensive continues.The U.N. agency’s decision could worsen Gaza’s humanitarian crisis as a second cold, rainy winter sets in, with hundreds of thousands of Palestinians in squalid tent camps and reliant on international aid. Experts already warned of famine in the north, which Israeli forces have almost completely isolated since early October.Philippe Lazzarini, the head of UNRWA, the main aid provider in Gaza, said the route leading to the Kerem Shalom crossing is too dangerous on the Gaza side. Armed men looted nearly 100 trucks on the route in mid-November. Kerem Shalom is the only crossing between Israel and Gaza that is designed for cargo shipments and has been the main artery for aid since the Rafah crossing with Egypt was shut in May. Last month, nearly two-thirds of aid entering Gaza came through Kerem Shalom, and in previous months it accounted for even more, according to Israeli figures.In an X post, Lazzarini largely blamed Israel for the breakdown of humanitarian operations in Gaza, citing “political decisions to restrict the amounts of aid,” lack of safety on routes and Israel’s targeting of the Hamas-run police force, which previously provided public security. “Yesterday we had assurances aid would be fine. We tried to move five trucks and they were all taken,” Scott Anderson, director of UNRWA affairs in Gaza, told The Associated Press. “So we’ve kind of reached a point where it makes no sense to continue to try to move aid if it’s just gonna be looted.” When asked whether UNRWA has seen evidence supporting Israeli claims that Hamas has been behind aid looting, he emphasized that there’s no systemic diversion of aid in Gaza.A spokesman for UNICEF, Ammar Ammar, confirmed the security situation was “unacceptable” and said it was evaluating its operations at the crossing.

Global arms trade soars in 2023, driven by deadly conflicts --The top 100 global arms producers increased weapons and military-related sales by 4.3 percent last year, according to new research, as nations react to a more volatile and dangerous geopolitical environment sparked by wars in Europe and the Middle East.The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) said in a Monday report that sales reached $632 billion in 2023 among the world’s major arms producers.Those 100 companies have also increased their revenue by 19 percent between 2015 and 2023, researchers wrote.Lorenzo Scarazzato, a researcher at SIPRI, said “there was a marked rise in arms revenues in 2023 and this is likely to continue in 2024.”“The arms revenues of the Top 100 arms producers still did not fully reflect the scale of demand, and many companies have launched recruitment drives, suggesting they are optimistic about future sales,” Scarazzato said in a statement.The arms sales are inline with countries across the globe spending a record amount on defense in 2023, SIPRI said in a report earlier this year.According to the new report, while sales increased worldwide, the regions driving most of the growth include in Russia, which is fighting a war in Ukraine, and the Middle East, where Israel is fighting in Gaza and regionally against Iranian-backed proxy groups.Russia has two companies in the top 100 arms producers, which together saw a 40 percent increase from 2022 to around $25 billion.In the Middle East, six top arms producers — three of which are in Israel and the other half in Turkey — saw a collective 18 percent bump to $19.6 billion.Of the top 100 global defense companies, 41 of them are based in the U.S., and those firms recorded $317 billion in sales in 2023, a 2.5 percent increase from the year before.While a majority of the U.S. companies increased arms revenues, two of the world’s largest weapons producers, Lockheed Martin and RTX, saw a decrease in sales because of a struggle to ramp up production given supply chain issues.Europe and China also saw slight increases in arms sales, but those were among the smallest bumps recorded in 2023. China is struggling with a lagging economy, while Europe is slowly ramping up its defense spending after the war in Ukraine.The 23 top companies in Asia and Oceania saw a 5.7 percent increase, reaching $136 billion, as the Indo-Pacific in particular intensifies over competition and potential conflict between the U.S. and China.

Boris Johnson: 'We're Waging a Proxy War' in Ukraine - Former British Prime Minister Boris Johnson acknowledged in an interview last week that the West is waging a “proxy war” against Russia in Ukraine and argued NATO hasn’t done enough to achieve victory.“We’re waging a proxy war, but we’re not giving our proxies the ability to do the job. For years now, we’ve been allowing them to fight with one hand tied behind their backs, and it has been cruel,” Johnson said on a podcast produced by The Telegraph.Johnson played a key role in sabotaging peace talks between Russia and Ukraine in the early days of the conflict to ensure the war would continue. While visiting Kyiv in April 2022, then-Prime Minister Johnson urged Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky not to negotiate and said even if Ukraine was ready to sign a deal with Russia, its Western backers were not.Ukrainska Pravda first reported Johnson’s message to Zelensky and said his position was that of the “collective West.” David Arakhamia, a Ukrainian official who led short-lived negotiations with Russia, later confirmed that Johnson “came to Kyiv and said that we would not sign anything with [the Russians] at all, and let’s just fight.” In the podcast interview, Johnson said British and other Western troops should defend Ukrainian territory as part of any future ceasefire deal. “I don’t think we should be sending in combat troops to take on the Russians,” Johnson said. “But I think as part of the solution, as part of the end state, you’re going to want to have multinational European peace-keeping forces monitoring the border [and] helping the Ukrainians.” Johnson said Western countries should give Ukraine security guarantees as part of any peace deal, but that would be an unacceptable demand for Russia. Arakhamia noted that during the peace talks in 2022 that Johnson helped end, Russia’s primary demand was Ukrainian neutrality. “It was the most important thing for them. They were prepared to end the war if we agreed to – as Finland once did – neutrality and committed that we would not join NATO,” Arakhamia said.

Zelensky Says He's Willing To Cede Territory in Exchange for NATO Protection - On Friday, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said he was willing to temporarily cede territory to Russia to bring an end to the war in exchange for NATO protection over Ukraine. “If we want to stop the hot stage of the war, we should take under [the] NATO umbrella the territory of Ukraine that we have under our control,” Zelensky told Sky News. “That’s what we need to do fast, and then Ukraine can get back the other part of its territory diplomatically.” Zelensky’s suggestion is almost certainly a non-starter for Russia since the invasion was launched to keep Ukraine out of NATO, but it does reflect a shift in his position. Zelensky previously maintained that his war goals included driving Russia out of all of the territory it has captured since February 2022, as well as Crimea.In a recent conversation with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, Russian President Vladimir Putin pointed to a speech he made earlier this year that outlines his conditions for peace, which include a Ukrainian withdrawal from all territory Russia has annexed, Ukrainian neutrality, and the lifting of all Western sanctions on Russia.Ukrainian neutrality was Russia’s main demand during short-lived negotiations that took place in the early days of the invasion. Ukrainian and Russian officials held talks in March and April of 2022, but the negotiations were discouraged by the US and its allies. In the interview with Sky News, Zelensky said Ukraine wouldn’t agree to a ceasefire without guarantees of NATO protection. “We need [NATO protection] very much, otherwise [Putin] will come back. Otherwise, how are we going to go to a ceasefire? So for us, it’s very dangerous,” he said.While Zelensky and Putin’s terms are extremely far apart, the Ukrainian side could be forced to make more concessions if President-elect Donald Trump follows through with his campaign promise to end the war and pressures Zelensky to negotiate.