Powell: Trump’s tariffs held up rate cuts --Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said Tuesday that the central bank would likely have already cut interest rates this year if not for the shock generated by President Trump’s tariffs. When asked Tuesday if Trump’s tariffs held up the Fed’s plan to cut interest rates, Powell agreed. “I think that’s right,” he said at a central banking conference in Portugal. “We went on hold when we saw the size of the tariffs … All inflation forecasts for the United States went up materially as a consequence of the tariffs.” The confirmation is likely to draw more backlash from Trump, who has reset U.S. trade relations with wide-ranging tariffs and bashed Powell for pausing cuts, which started last year. In April, Trump announced tariffs against dozens of countries using a novel calculation based on trade deficits. He imposed a general tariff of 10 percent and ended up raising tariffs on China to 145 percent. Powell said Tuesday he’s expecting to see higher inflation over the summer and that the Fed expects to lower rates later this year. Currently, the Fed is forecasting two quarter-point rate cuts for 2025. Powell also discussed handing the economy over to his “successor,” though he did not formally comment on whether he was leaving the Fed board altogether when his term expires next May. “I have a little more than 10 months left on my terms as chair,” he said. “I want to hand over to my successor an economy in good shape.” Powell could choose to serve on the Fed board through 2028, which would be an unusual step for a former chair, but has not commented on whether he would do so. Trump on Monday shared a handwritten note to Powell urging him to lower interest rates, his latest attempt to push the central bank to do so. Trump posted on Truth Social complaining that Powell and the rest of the Fed board of governors “should be ashamed of themselves” for declining to lower interest rates.
Trump and Fed Policy - Today President Trump put out a note urging Fed Chair Powell to lower rates. The following image, courtesy of Conor Sen, shows the central bank rates around the world. Mr. Trump wrote: Jerome, You are, as usual, "Too Late". You have cost the USA a fortune - and continue to do so - you should lower the rate - by a lot! Hundreds of billions of dollars being lost! No Inflation. Mr. Trump also wrote "Should be here" and referenced rates between 0.25% and 1.75%. The current Fed's Fund rate is between 4.25% and 4.5%. Fed Chair Powell is probably correct about rates currently being "modestly" restrictive, but it is possible we are neutral now. First, there is some inflation. The current rate of core PCE inflation was at 2.7% year-over-year in May, up from 2.5% in April. Core PCE inflation has slowed to 1.7% annualized over the last 3 months. Add in a 1.75% real rate - and you get close to the current Fed Funds rate. It is difficult to predict what will happen over the next year. There is considerable uncertainty about the impact of policy on inflation and the economy in coming months. Goldman Sachs economists noted today: "We are pulling forward our forecast for the next cut to September. We had previously expected a cut in December because we thought that the peak summer tariff effects on monthly inflation would make it awkward to cut sooner. But the very early evidence suggests that the tariff effects look a bit smaller than we expected, other disinflationary forces have been stronger, and we suspect that the Fed leadership shares our view that tariffs will only have a one-time price level effect. And while the labor market still looks healthy, it has become hard to find a job, and both residual seasonality and immigration policy changes pose near-term downside risk to payrolls." Maybe the impact on inflation from the tariffs will be less than expected. And it seems likely the impact will be mostly transitory. It is also possible the economic weakness from policy (immigration, fiscal) will more than offset any boost to inflation from the tariffs. Although immigration policy might push up inflation for food, etc. It is very uncertain right now. It appears that currently Fed Funds policy is reasonably appropriate
Powell unbowed by pressure to cut rates in July -- Some Federal Reserve officials are starting to beat the drum for an interest rate cut, but not Chair Jerome Powell. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell was noncommittal about cutting interest rates at the central bank's next monetary policy meeting in July, saying future actions will depend on incoming data. His comments come as President Trump ramps up his criticism of the Fed chair.
The Fed can ignore Trump — but markets are listening - Try as they might, President Donald Trump and his allies have not been able to harangue the Federal Reserve into lowering interest rates. But that doesn't mean their rhetoric isn't getting results. The president and his allies have stepped up their verbal attacks on the Federal Reserve and its chairman in recent weeks, and while the tough talk has not changed policy, it has sent a clear message to the financial sector.
Bessent opens door to replacing Powell at Fed --Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Monday he’d be open to replacing Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell as President Trump looks to replace the central bank chief as soon as possible. Asked if it’s a job he would want to do, Bessent said he would comply with Trump’s wishes. “I will do what the president wants,” he said in a TV interview with Bloomberg News, adding that he was happy with his current position as Treasury secretary. Multiple names for Powell’s successor have been floated in Washington policy circles. In addition to Bessent, they include current Fed board of governors member Christopher Waller, Fed Vice Chair of Supervision Michelle Bowman, White House National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett and former Fed board of governors member Kevin Warsh. Powell’s term as Fed chair ends in May, though his term as a member of the board of governors doesn’t end until 2028. Tensions between Powell and Trump have been flaring in recent months as Trump has increasingly called for the Fed to cut interest rates, while central bankers, wary of increasing inflation, have kept rates steady. Warnings about higher inflation coming from President Trump’s tariffs have proliferated among economic forecasters. Inflation ticked up to a 2.4 percent annual increase in May from 2.3 percent in April. Powell has said he wants to see where exactly the cost of tariffs are going to be borne in various value chains before he makes a move on rates. Tariffs could be borne by manufacturers, exporters, importers, or retailers, who could take them out of margins. Alternatively, they could end up being passed onto shoppers, driving prices higher. The Fed has left interest rates higher as a buffer against that possibility.br>
Better-than-expected jobs report backs Fed's rate stance -- Employers added more workers in June than forecasted, as job report numbers continue to support a solid economy. The Bureau of Labor Statistics issued its unemployment report for June, showing that the economy added 147,000 jobs. The report supports the Federal Reserve's patience to cut interest rates.
Donald Trump urges GOP to override Senate parliamentarian - President Trump urged Senate Republicans on Sunday to overrule the chamber’s parliamentarian in order to pass key parts of his sweeping domestic policy bill. In a Sunday post on Truth Social, the president backed a call from Rep. Greg Steube (R-Fla.) and other GOP hard-liners to ignore rulings from Senate Parliamentarian Elizabeth MacDonough. “Great Congressman Greg Steube is 100% correct. An unelected Senate Staffer (Parliamentarian), should not be allowed to hurt the Republicans Bill. Wants many fantastic things out. NO! DJT,” Trump wrote. The parliamentarian is the nonpartisan Senate official whose responsibilities include determining whether parts of laws meant to be passed through budget reconciliation comply with the rules for that process. Budget reconciliation bills can pass the Senate with simple majorities, thereby averting the filibuster. But those provisions must follow specific instructions passed through a budget resolution and not expand the deficit past the window laid out in the bill.
Senate wraps up 16-hour reading of Trump's 'big, beautiful bill,' moves to debate -- The Senate clerks completed the full reading of the Senate GOP’s massive tax and spending bill on Sunday afternoon, allowing the chamber to start the countdown clock toward a final vote on the package sometime on Monday. Democrats, in an attempt to delay passage of the bill, forced the clerks to read aloud all 940 pages of the package, an endeavor that clocked in at 15 hours and 55 minutes and ended shortly after 3 p.m. EDT. “I objected to stop Republicans moving forward on their Big, Ugly Bill until they read every single word of it to the American people,” Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) wrote on the social platform X on Saturday night. The chamber will now begin up to 20 hours of debate, equally divided between the two sides, before an unlimited series of amendment votes known as a “vote-a-rama” is set to begin. Republicans are expected to yield back much of their time, expediting the timeline for passage. That would mean the vote-a-rama would likely kick off in the early hours of Monday morning, setting up passage for sometime later in the day.
House GOP fumes over Senate's 'big, beautiful megabill: ‘How did it get so much f‑‑‑ing worse?’-- Moderate Republicans and hard-line conservatives in the House are expressing increasing opposition to the Senate’s version of the “big, beautiful bill” just days before the lower chamber is set to consider the legislation, a daunting dynamic for GOP leaders as they race to meet their self-imposed Friday deadline. The Senate on Monday kicked off the hours-long vote-a-rama with members considering a series of amendments that could be make-or-break for support in the lower chamber, including changes to Medicaid cuts and tax provisions. The upper chamber is expected to vote on final passage early Tuesday morning. As House lawmakers anxiously watch the Senate’s deliberations, they are fuming about the state of the legislation. “On the text chains, on the phone calls, everyone is complaining,” one moderate House Republican, who requested anonymity to discuss the private conversations, told The Hill. “There’s a few little provisions people will say something positive about, but no one is happy with the Senate version.” “It’s amazing to a lot of us — how did it get so much f‑‑‑ing worse?” they added. The lawmaker said GOP leadership and the White House are making calls to skeptical Republicans and that members in more conservative districts are reaching out to moderates to raise issues with some provisions — underscoring the depth of concerns within the conference. At least six moderate House Republicans are planning to vote “no” on the Senate bill in its current form, The Hill has learned, as they air concerns about changes to Medicaid and the rollback of green energy tax credits, among other provisions. The Senate bill includes a proposal that would effectively cap provider taxes at 3.5 percent by 2031, down from the current 6 percent, but only for the states that expanded Medicaid under the Affordable Care Act. On green energy tax credits, the rollback of the subsidies is a bit less harsh in the Senate bill, but the upper chamber’s version adds a new tax on solar and wind projects if a certain percentage of their components come from China. Reps. David Valadao (R-Calif.), Jeff Van Drew (R-N.J.) and Young Kim (R-Calif.) are currently a “no” on the legislation because of those provisions, in addition to two other moderate Republicans who requested anonymity to discuss their opinions on the bill. Rep. Nick LaLota (R-N.Y.), meanwhile, said he is against the Senate’s cut of the bill because of language involving the state and local tax (SALT) deduction cap. “I think it’s just bad public policy,” Van Drew said earlier this month, after the Senate unveiled its language. “If you hurt these hospitals some will close, some people will have to utilize emergency rooms even more. … This is political stupidity; it’s political suicide.” For now, moderates are closely watching for a vote on an amendment introduced by Sen. Rick Scott (R-Fla.) that would prevent new enrollees in Medicaid expansion states from receiving the 9-to-1 enhanced Federal Medical Assistance Percentage (FMAP) if they are nondisabled and do not have dependent children, a change that would cut spending for the social safety net program by an additional $313 billion. The amendment is unlikely to muster enough support to pass, though Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) is backing the change as part of a deal to help get Scott and other GOP holdouts on board for the procedural vote Saturday. House moderates, meanwhile, are quietly hoping the tweak does squeak through, since it will make the package dead-on-arrival in the House. A number of lawmakers in the lower chamber have said the provision is a red line for them. “Most of us want the FMAP amendment to pass, so it’ll just be the final nail in the coffin,” the previously quoted lawmaker said. On the other side of the ideological spectrum are conservative Republicans enraged over the level of spending cuts in the bill and, as a result, its deficit impact. The conservative House Freedom Caucus, which includes several critics of the bill, sent a shot across the bow Monday. “The House budget framework was clear: no new deficit spending in the One Big Beautiful Bill. The Senate’s version adds $651 billion to the deficit — and that’s before interest costs, which nearly double the total,” the group wrote on social platform X. “That’s not fiscal responsibility. It’s not what we agreed to.” “The Senate must make major changes and should at least be in the ballpark of compliance with the agreed upon House budget framework,” it added. “Republicans must do better.” Rep. Chip Roy (R-Texas), one of the most vocal members of the group who had been airing concerns with the bill throughout the weekend, said he has been having conversations with the White House — which he dubbed “intense fellowship” — but those discussions do not appear to have done enough to bring him on board. “I know the president has a great agenda that will get things moving again. I want to accelerate that. I want the border money. I want to vote yes, but I can’t vote yes just because they say I have to,” Roy said on “The Dana Show.” “I can’t vote yes just because everybody says we got to get it done by July 4. I have a responsibility to look at this objectively and say guys, are you doing the right math? And I will just tell you right now, I don’t think the math is correct yet.”
GOP senators unveil amendment to shrink Medicaid by another $313B - Florida Sen. Rick Scott (R) and several Republican allies have unveiled an amendment to President Trump’s budget megabill that would reduce Medicaid spending by another $313 billion by limiting the expansion of Medicaid under the 2010 Affordable Care Act, also known as ObamaCare. The amendment would prevent new enrollees in Medicaid expansion states from receiving the 9-to-1 enhanced Federal Medical Assistance Percentage (FMAP) if they are nondisabled and don’t have dependent children. The existing population of Medicaid enrollees in expansion states would keep their 9-to-1 FMAP share, even if they temporarily left the program to join the workforce and then returned. The reduced FMAP for new enrollees would go into effect in 2031. A preliminary analysis by the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) projected the Senate bill would reduce Medicaid spending by $930 billion, even without Scott’s amendment to stop the future expansion of the 9-to-1 federal match share in Medicaid expansion states. If it is adopted, it could reduce future Medicaid spending by $1.24 trillion. The CBO found Scott’s amendment would save another $313 billion over 10 years, according to his office. Scott and other conservatives, including Sen. Mike Lee (R-Utah) and Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wis.), made a concerted push Sunday to persuade Republican colleagues to vote for the amendment. The trio of conservatives are not saying whether they will vote for the GOP megabill if their amendment is rejected, hoping to ramp up pressure on colleagues to support the proposal. Nevertheless, Senate GOP sources expect Scott, Lee and Johnson to ultimately vote “yes” on final passage to support Trump’s agenda. Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) pledged to Scott on Saturday night that he would support the amendment in exchange for Scott’s vote on a critical motion to proceed to the bill. “I think it’s going to pass. If you think about it, it’s good policy. It gives the states the opportunity to get ready. Nobody gets kicked off,” Scott told The Hill. Asked if he would vote for final passage of the 940-page Senate bill if his amendment doesn’t pass, Scott said, “I’ll figure it out then.” The amendment is cosponsored by Johnson, Lee and Senate Finance Committee Chair Mike Crapo (R-Idaho).
Conservatives huddle with Thune after plan to cut more from Medicaid stalls - A trio of conservatives pushing for an additional $313 billion in federal Medicaid spending cuts marched into Senate Majority Leader John Thune’s (R-S.D.) office late Monday night to hash out the next steps for President Trump’s megabill after it appeared likely that an amendment to slow the growth of Medicaid was headed for defeat. Sen. Rick Scott (R-Fla.), the sponsor of the amendment to roll back the expansion of Medicaid under the Affordable Care Act, was spotted walking into Thune’s office alongside Thune, Senate Republican Whip John Barrasso (R-Wyo.), Senate Finance Committee Chair Mike Crapo (R-Idaho) and Sens. Ron Johnson (R-Wis.) and Mike Lee (R-Utah). Scott, Johnson and Lee held off from supporting a motion to proceed to Trump’s “big, beautiful bill” on Saturday in order to negotiate a commitment from Thune and Vice President Vance to support an amendment to slow the expansion of Medicaid. Scott has expressed strong confidence that his amendment would pass, but it became evident Monday that it would not muster 50 votes after several GOP senators told The Hill that they would not support it. Sen. Jim Justice (R-W.Va.), the former governor of West Virginia, said he’s not comfortable cutting more from Medicaid above the $930 billion in projected federal Medicaid spending cuts already included the 940-page Senate bill. Justice warned that Republicans might lose their Senate and House majorities if they push Medicaid cuts much further. “It just seems like we’ve taken it as far as I’m comfortable taking it,” he said of Medicaid spending cuts.
18 GOP senators vote to raise taxes on the rich to pay for rural hospital fund - Eighteen Republican senators, including former Senate GOP Leader Mitch McConnell (Ky.), voted to advance an amendment sponsored by Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine) to raise taxes on ultra wealthy income earners to help rural hospitals facing steep Medicaid cuts. The GOP senators voted for a motion to waive a budget point-of-order against Collins’s amendment to establish a new $39.6 percent tax bracket for individuals who earn more than $25 million in annual income and married couples who earn more than $50 million annually. The proposal would be used to double the size of the rural hospital relief fund in the GOP megabill from $25 billion to $50 billion. The procedural motion failed on a lopsided vote of 22 to 78, but the result surprised some Senate insiders. One senior Republican aide expressed shock that so many Republicans voted to raise taxes, even if on the nation’s very richest income earners. “There was a time when Republicans used to have discipline on tax increases. Grover must be pulling his hair out,” the aide said, referring to Grover Norquist, the president of Americans for Tax Reform, an anti-tax advocacy group that asks members of Congress to pledge not to raise taxes. “I guess it’s Trump’s Republican Party,” the source observed, referring to President Trump’s more populist view of economic policy.
Senate defeats Collins proposal to raise taxes on highest earners to help rural hospitals - The Senate voted early Tuesday morning to defeat an amendment sponsored by Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine) to create a new top marginal tax rate for the nation’s wealthiest income earners and use the money to double the size of a proposed rural hospital relief fund from $25 billion to $50 billion. Senators voted 22 to 78 against a motion to waive a 60-vote budget point of order against the amendment. Collins’s amendment to President Trump’s “big, beautiful bill” would have established a 39.6 percent top marginal rate for individuals with income above $25 million and for married couples with income above $50 million. The amount raised would have fully offset the cost of expanding the relief fund that Senate GOP leaders have proposed to help rural and smaller hospitals around the country that are at risk of bankruptcy because of the steep Medicaid funding cuts in the GOP megabill. “Rural providers, especially our rural hospitals and nursing homes, are under great financial strain right now, with many having recently closed and others at risk of closing,” Collins said on the Senate floor before the vote.
Collins, Murkowski vote with Democrats on striking Planned Parenthood provision from GOP megabill - Republican Sens. Susan Collins (Maine) and Lisa Murkowski (Alaska) on Monday sided with Democrats who were trying to strike a provision from the GOP’s megabill that would bar Planned Parenthood health centers from receiving Medicaid funding for services provided to low-income women across the country. The two were the only Republicans to vote for a motion to waive a budget point of order against an amendment to remove the provision. It was sponsored by Sen. Patty Murray (Wash.), the top Democrat on the Senate Appropriations Committee. Murray hoped to offer an amendment to strip the Planned Parenthood-related provision from the bill, but she first needed to overcome a procedural objection to the bill. Republicans blocked her motion in a 51-49 vote. She needed 60 votes to overcome the objection. “It will take another step toward enacting Republicans’ plan for a backdoor nationwide abortion ban. How does it do this? By defunding Planned Parenthood,” Murray said. “This is a long-sought goal of anti-choice extremists — no surprise, it is overwhelmingly unpopular with the American people,” she added.
Senate Parliamentarian allows 'defunding' of Planned Parenthood -A Senate GOP provision that would block Medicaid funding to Planned Parenthood will remain in the massive tax and spending bill after the Senate parliamentarian on Monday advised the language does not violate the chamber’s Byrd Rule. The ruling from Parliamentarian Elizabeth MacDonough comes after Senate Republicans updated the provision late Friday night to change the timing of the “defunding” from 10 years to one year. The bill’s language doesn’t specifically mention Planned Parenthood; it prohibits clinics and providers that offer abortions from accepting Medicaid for the other family planning and reproductive health care services they provide. But Planned Parenthood is the only organization that it applies to. The provision is estimated to cost taxpayers $52 million over the next 10 years, according to the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office (CBO). “Republicans just got the green light to proceed with their destructive effort to defund Planned Parenthood health centers across the country—a crushing blow to the millions of women across America who rely on Planned Parenthood clinics for basic reproductive care,” Sen. Patty Murray (D-Wash.) said in a statement. “Republicans’ last-minute changes to shorten the timeline of this provision hardly matter—once health clinics lose funding and are forced to close their doors, they are unlikely to reopen again,” she added..
Booker calls Trump megabill a ‘moral obscenity’ -- Sen. Cory Booker (D-N.J.) said Monday that President Trump’s “big, beautiful bill” is a “moral obscenity.” “I think it’s a moral obscenity, and it is violence in the sense of what it will do to many families by denying them health care when they’re sick, by denying them food when their children are hungry, denying our seniors critical care in their latter years, denying the disabled the kind of support that they need,” Booker said on MSNBC’s “Deadline: White House.” Democrats have vehemently opposed the “big, beautiful bill” as it has made its way through Congress, with Booker saying Monday in a post on the social platform X that members of his party in the upper chamber were “standing up right now for our constituents who will lose their health care, who will face rising energy costs, and who will lose access to SNAP benefits.” “We have to do whatever we can to stop the ‘Big Beautiful Bill,’” Booker continued in his post. House moderate Republicans and hard-line conservatives have recently expressed rising opposition to the Senate’s version of the “big, beautiful bill” only days before they are set to consider the legislation.
Senate’s ‘Big, Beautiful Bill’ would be a disaster for clean energy -- The U.S. Senate passed President Donald Trump’s “Big, Beautiful Bill” on Tuesday and took an axe to clean energy, though it was slightly blunted in its final moments.The final vote was split 50-50, with Republican Sens. Susan Collins of Maine, Rand Paul of Kentucky, and Thom Tillis of North Carolina joining Democrats in voting against the bill. Vice President JD Vance cast the tie-breaking vote. Alaska Republican Sen. Lisa Murkowski, who voted for the bill, said she hoped the House would further revise it.Notably missing from the final bill is an excise tax on wind and solar development that Republicans included on Friday night, to the apparent surprise of GOP senators. It was removed in a wraparound amendment passed just before the final bill. The tax would’ve affected wind and solar projects that used components from China and other “foreign entities of concern,” and would’ve had a devastating effect on clean power development and the economy as a whole.The final amendment will still require solar and wind projects to start service by the end of 2027 if they want to access 45Y or 48E production and investment tax credits. But if they begin construction within a year of the bill’s signing, they’ll have longer to use the incentives. There are further restrictions on tapping tax credits for projects whose owners are “prohibited foreign entities” and for projects that use components from those countries.“With spiking power demand and rising bills, we need more clean, affordable American energy, but Senate Republicans just voted to kill jobs and deliver the largest utility bill increase in U.S. history,” Natural Resources Defense Council President Manish Bapna said in a statement. “At a time when we need new energy more than ever, Republicans are punishing the plentiful wind and solar power that can be quickly added to the grid.”The rest of the bill’s energy-related provisions looked pretty close to what was finalized on Friday. Here’s a recap:
- Efficiency: Tax credits for energy-efficient home improvements would only be available to projects that are finished before the end of this year. To access energy-efficient home and commercial building incentives, developers would have to start construction by June 30, 2026.
- EVs: In what is the most aggressive phaseout in the legislation, tax credits for new or used clean-vehicle purchases, as well as clean commercial vehicle purchases, would end after Sept. 30, 2025. Tax credits for installing charging stations at a home or business would expire on June 30, 2026.A provision to force the U.S. Postal Service to scrap its new EVs and a proposal to charge an annual fee on EV or hybrid vehicle registration did not make the final bill.
- Nuclear, hydropower, and geothermal: They’ll all be able to tap incentives if they start construction by 2033.
- Hydrogen: 45V clean-hydrogen tax credits will expire on Jan. 1, 2028. That’s a small win for the beleaguered industry — the House version had the incentives dead at the end of this year.
- Transferability: Tax credit transferability, an Inflation Reduction Act provision that allows clean-energy project and factory developers to sell their tax credits directly to other companies, was left untouched in the Senate bill. The House version had eliminated it for certain energy-related tax credits.And the bill repealed unobligated Inflation Reduction Act funding for a whole slew of offices and programs, including:
- The Loan Programs Office
- The Greenhouse Gas Reduction Fund, which helped fund local emissions-reducing projects
- Decarbonizing federal buildings
- Using low-carbon materials in new transportation infrastructure construction
- Grants for states, municipalities, and tribes to make and implement emissions-reduction plans
- A program to help gas and petroleum companies reduce waste and methane emissions
- Transmission development, including for offshore wind projects
- Tribal energy loans
- A low-emissions electricity program to help states, tribes, and municipalities lower electricity use and emissions
- Clean heavy-duty vehicles
The bill also modified the Energy Infrastructure Reinvestment program to remove a requirement that projects receiving loans “avoid, reduce, utilize, or sequester” emissions. Instead, it’ll prioritize “known or forecastable electric supply” — also known as fossil fuels. The bill also added another $1 billion to the originally $5 billion program.
GOP senators reach deal on state AI regulation ban -Sen. Marsha Blackburn (R-Tenn.) reached a deal with Senate Commerce Chair Ted Cruz (R-Texas) on new text for a provision in President Trump’s sweeping tax package that bars states from regulating artificial intelligence (AI). The updated text would enact a “temporary pause” banning states from regulating AI for five years if they want access to $500 million in AI infrastructure and deployment funding included in the bill. The original provision, which Blackburn opposed, sought to limit state legislation for a 10-year period. It also includes new exemptions for state laws seeking to regulate unfair or deceptive practices, children’s online safety, child sexual abuse material, and publicity rights. “For decades, Congress has proven incapable of passing legislation to govern the virtual space and protect Americans from being exploited by Big Tech, and it’s why I continue to fight to pass federal protections for Tennesseans and Americans alike,” Blackburn said in a statement. “To ensure we do not decimate the progress states like Tennessee have made to stand in the gap, I am pleased Chairman Cruz has agreed to update the AI provision to exempt state laws that protect kids, creators, and other vulnerable individuals from the unintended consequences of AI,” she continued. Blackburn has been a key proponent of legislation seeking to protect kids online. She reintroduced the Kids Online Safety Act last month alongside Sen. Richard Blumenthal (D-Conn.), Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) and Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.). “I look forward to working with him in the coming months to hold Big Tech accountable — including by passing the Kids Online Safety Act and an online privacy framework that gives consumers more power over their data,” she added. “It’s time to get the One Big Beautiful Bill Act to the President’s desk so we can deliver on our promise of enacting the America First agenda.” It’s unclear whether Blackburn and Cruz’s deal on the AI provision will resolve the concerns of other lawmakers who have previously voiced opposition to the measure, including Sens. Ron Johnson (R-Wis.), Josh Hawley (R-Mo.) and Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.).
Blackburn says AI deal with Cruz is off --- Sen. Marsha Blackburn (R-Tenn.) said Monday that a deal to update language of a provision in President Trump’s tax package seeking to bar states from regulating artificial intelligence (AI) is off. Just one day earlier, Blackburn announced she had reached an agreement with Senate Commerce Chair Ted Cruz (R-Texas) on new text that would bar states from regulating AI for five years and featured exemptions for laws on child online safety and publicity rights. However, she pulled support for the updated provision Monday evening. “While I appreciate Chairman Cruz’s efforts to find acceptable language that allows states to protect their citizens from the abuses of AI, the current language is not acceptable to those who need these protections the most,” Blackburn said in a statement. “This provision could allow Big Tech to continue to exploit kids, creators, and conservatives,” she continued. “Until Congress passes federally preemptive legislation like the Kids Online Safety Act and an online privacy framework, we can’t block states from making laws that protect their citizens.” Blackburn has been a key proponent of the Kids Online Safety Act (KOSA), which she reintroduced last month alongside Sen. Richard Blumenthal (D-Conn.) and Senate leadership. “For as long as I’ve been in Congress, I’ve worked alongside federal and state legislators, parents seeking to protect their kids online, and the creative community in Tennessee to fight back against Big Tech’s exploitation by passing legislation to govern the virtual space,” she added. The Tennessee Republican now plans to co-sponsor Sen. Maria Cantwell’s (D-Wash.) amendment to strip the AI provision from the reconciliation bill, in addition to filing her own amendment, according to Cantwell’s office.
Trump megabill faces GOP holdouts amidst of marathon vote-a-rama --Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) needs to nail down the support of multiple Republican senators, including at least two moderates and three conservatives, who haven’t yet said they will vote for final passage of President Trump’s megabill after a marathon series of amendment votes. Senate Republicans are feeling mostly confident about passing Trump’s “big, beautiful bill,” but the legislation still faces several obstacles. Three conservatives — Sens. Ron Johnson (R-Wis.), Rick Scott (R-Fla.) and Mike Lee (R-Utah) — are pressing for the adoption of an amendment that would cut an additional $313 in federal Medicaid spending. And at least two of them, Johnson and Scott, won’t say if they’ll vote for final passage if the amendment doesn’t succeed. The amendment, which would stop the 9-to-1 federal match for Medicaid enrollees who are “able-bodied” and without dependent children in states that expanded the program, is unlikely to be adopted. Multiple Republican senators, including Sen. Josh Hawley (R-Mo.), have pushed hard against the Medicaid cuts already in the bill. “I think that this effort to cut Medicaid funding is a mistake,” Hawley told reporters over the weekend. “Frankly, my party needs to do some soul-searching. If you want to be a working-class party, you’ve got to deliver to working-class people. You cannot take away health care from working people,” he said.
Live updates: GOP stalls for time in vote-a-rama while awaiting key ruling on Trump megabill -- The Senate is more than 10 hours into a vote-a-rama on the massive GOP policy legislation dubbed the “big, beautiful bill,” and Republicans are stalling for time awaiting a key ruling from the chamber’s parliamentarian. The Senate’s rules referee must make a critical decision on a provision that would exempt Alaska and Hawaii from cuts to the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP). Whether it gets a green light could determine whether Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska) agrees to back the bill on final passage. At the same time, Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) is looking to nail down the support of several Republican senators, including at least two moderates and three conservatives, who haven’t yet said they will vote for final passage. On the Senate floor, Democrats are at the heart of the action as they try to change the mammoth bill that champions President Trump’s agenda — or at least force Republicans to take tough votes. Republicans can lose a maximum of three votes, and Sens. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) and Rand Paul (R-Ky.) are already expected to vote “no” over their opposition to proposed Medicaid cuts and the inclusion of a $5 trillion debt ceiling hike, respectively. The House will return midweek to vote on the bill.
GOP amendment seeks to undo GOP’s new hurdles for solar and wind -- Sen. Joni Ernst (R-Iowa) is offering an amendment that seeks to undo the latest hurdles for solar and wind energy that were added to the GOP megabill over the weekend. Ernst’s amendment would replace sections pertaining to the phaseout of subsidies for solar and wind. Like a prior GOP draft, her amendment, which was first reported by Politico, would allow projects that begin construction over the next few years to receive at least partial credit. This differs from the version from this weekend that only allowed the credit for projects that actually begin producing electricity in the next few years, which is a much higher bar to clear. The Ernst replacement version, which is cosponsored by GOP Sens. Chuck Grassley (Iowa) and Lisa Murkowski (Alaska), also differs from this weekend’s legislation because it does not appear to impose a sweeping new excise tax on future solar and wind projects if they contain Chinese components. Phasing out the incentives along these lines would still be considered a significant cut to the climate-friendly tax credits. But it would be expected to have a less dramatic impact on renewables than the language made public over the weekend. Whether the amendment will ultimately make it into the bill is not immediately clear.
GOP releases megabill text with land sales, tax credit rollbacks -The Senate released new megabill text overnight with stricter treatment for renewable energy incentives from the Democrats’ climate law and a new tax on wind and solar — a major blow to companies and some lawmakers lobbying for more leniency.The updated legislation also includes Senate Energy and Natural Resources Chair Mike Lee’s latest plan to sell certain federal public land for housing.The new Senate Finance Committee text looks a lot more like the House-passed bill when it comes to an array of contested tax credits.It would drastically phase out wind and solar credits while maintaining incentives for Republican-friendly energy sources like nuclear and geothermal.Specifically, the bill would cut off incentives for projects that aren’t “placed in service” — or plugged into the grid — by the end of 2028. That’s more aggressive than the previous Senate draft that preserved those credits for projects that merely “start construction” by the end of the year.On the other hand, the legislation has a notable victory for hydrogen. It would extend incentives for clean hydrogen production to 2028, instead of eliminating them this year, as the previous Senate version proposed.Some provisions stayed the same. Senators kept credits for non-carbon energy sources, including nuclear, hydropower and geothermal, for projects that start construction by 2033.Senators also kept “transferability,” which allows project sponsors to transfer credits to a third party.The new language largely maintained provisions barring companies from using materials from China or other adversary nations, while moving some deadlines for compliance sooner. The Senate parliamentarian was reviewing at least portions of this section. Companies were hoping for more lenient treatment to allow supply chains to develop.Moreover, Republicans added a new tax on future wind and solar projects that don’t meet strict new restrictions on parts produced by any company that received “material assistance” from certain U.S. adversaries like China.A preliminary analysis from the Rhodium Group, an independent consulting firm, said the legislation would make renewable energy projects 10 to 20 percent more expensive beyond the cost of losing the IRA benefits.“Combined with the likely onerous administrative reporting burden this provision puts in place, these cost increases will lead to even lower wind and solar installations. The impacts of this tax would also flow through to consumers in the form of higher electricity rates,” the analysis said.Senators continued to target wind turbines and their parts, which would no longer receive advanced manufacturing tax credits by 2028. Critical mineral incentives would be phased out, as well, except for metallurgical coal.The bill proposes moving the end of the electric vehicle tax credits to Sept. 30, up from the six-month timeline previously proposed, while credits for charging infrastructure would end in June 2026.Negotiators added a new bonus tax incentive for certain advanced nuclear power facilities built in areas with significant nuclear industry employment. A number of House and Senate defenders of the climate law credits, under intense lobbying from companies, were looking to make sure renewable energy projects had more time to benefit. But conservatives and President Donald Trump fought in the opposite direction.Lee’s latest proposal would order the sale of up to 0.5 percent of Bureau of Land Management land across 11 states. Only lands that fall within five miles of a population center would be eligible, and protected lands excluded.The parliamentarian had ruled an earlier land sales plan ineligible for passage by simple majority under the budget reconciliation process. She had yet to rule on Lee’s new framework Friday night.The updated text would set aside money from each sale for hunting, fishing and recreational amenities. That after outdoor advocates on the right expressed concern.Still, a number of Republican lawmakers in both chambers have balked at any public land sale plan in the megabill and would push to strip it before final passage.
Senate Advances Trump's 'Big Beautiful Bill' That Includes $150 Billion in Extra Military Spending - The Senate on Tuesday advanced a massive spending package, dubbed the “Big Beautiful Bill” by President Trump, that includes $150 billion in extra military spending.The bill passed in a vote of 51-50, with Vice President JD Vance casting the tie-breaking vote, as three Republicans — Senators Rand Paul (KY), Susan Collins (ME), and Thom Tillis (NC) — joined Democrats in voting against the sprawling piece of legislation.House GOP leaders have scheduled a vote for the bill on Wednesday and are hoping to get it to President Trump’s desk by this Friday, though uncertainty remains about how fast it will get through the chamber.The $150 billion will fund several of the Trump administration’s priorities, including Trump’s plan for a massive air defense system, known as the “Golden Dome,” which is bound to kick off a new arms race and will be a major boondoggle for the weapons makers that will be involved.The majority of the $150 billion is meant to supplement the military budget for the 2026 fiscal year to bring it over the $1 trillion mark that Trump is aiming for. The White House has requested a military budget of $892.6 billion, which includes $848.3 billion for the Pentagon, and it is planning to use $113 billion from the supplemental spending package to bring the total 2026 national security budget to approximately $1.006 trillion.While the US has never officially had a $1 trillion military budget, the actual cost of US military spending has exceeded $1 trillion for years. According to veteran defense analyst Winslow Wheeler, based on the $895 billion National Defense Authorization Act, US national security spending for 2025 was expected to reach about $1.77 trillion. Wheeler’s estimate accounts for military-related spending from other government agencies not funded by the NDAA, such as the Department of Veterans Affairs and Homeland Security. It also includes the national security share of the interest accrued on the US debt, as well as other factors.
Senate passes bill with significant changes to student loan programs -The Senate’s version of President Trump’s “big, beautiful bill” passed Tuesday would make significant changes to student loan programs, worrying advocates that borrowers will face higher monthly payments. The reconciliation bill revamps the types of student loan repayment plans available to borrowers; how much students will be able borrow from the federal government; and how student loan deferment works.. The massive package now heads back to the House. If passed it its current form, it would represent some of the biggest changes to the student loan system in years. In the megabill’s current form, student loan repayment options would dwindle down to two in the next few years. Multiple popular plans, such as the Biden administration’s SAVE option, would be phased out in favor of either a new Repayment Assistance Plan or a standard plan. Borrowers would have to choose one of those plans between July 2026 and July 2028. The standard plan would give a borrower a loan with a life span depending on the amount borrowed, typically between 10 years and 25 years. The new Repayment Assistance Plan would require 30 years of payments before student loan forgiveness is allowed, up from 20 years to 25 years in previous options. The legislation also eliminates the Graduate PLUS Program, which allows students going to graduate or professional school to cover the full cost of attendance. Instead, a cap of $100,000 will be put on lifetime loans for graduate students, and $200,000 for medical and law students. Parent PLUS loans will also be capped at $65,000 and will not be eligible for repayment programs. Borrowers struggling to repay their loans will no longer be able to defer due to unemployment or economic hardship, but it would also give borrowers the ability to rehabilitate defaulted loans twice instead of the current one time that is allowed. Other changes include eligibility for Pell Grants, excluding those who receive full rides to a university and adding individuals who enroll in workplace training programs. “President Trump and I want to preserve the American Dream for working and middle America,” said Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-La.), chair of the Senate Health, Education, Labor and Pensions Committee. “We keep taxes low, cut taxes on tips, overtime, and Social Security, extend the Child Tax Credit, fix our broken education system, support our military, secure our border, and build a business environment that creates better paying jobs — especially in Louisiana,” Cassidy added. What this means for borrowers Borrowers will have to switch their plans over a two-year period, with those currently on an income-based repayment plan able to keep their 20- to 25-year window for forgiveness. Payments made under old plans would still count toward the timeline for new plans. But advocates warn the new plans will raise the monthly payments for most borrowers. “This reconciliation bill will be catastrophic for millions of Americans by restricting access to higher education and exacerbating the student debt crisis for both federal and private student loans,” Student Debt Crisis Center President Natalia Abrams said. “While it is difficult to imagine how much worse the student debt crisis can become, this reconciliation bill does exactly that.” The changes to student loan deferrment will leave borrowers experiencing hardship in a precarious situation as the Repayment Assistance Plan gives no option to reduce payments down to $0 during times of struggle. Advocates worry the caps on federal lending for graduate students will also turn prospective students away from higher education or push them toward private loans, which come with higher interest rates and can be difficult for some to obtain. “This bill is a dangerous attack on students, working families, and communities across the country. By gutting financial aid programs, shredding the student loan safety net, weakening protections, and pushing millions of students and families into the riskier and more expensive private student loan market, policymakers are doubling down on a rigged system where a quality higher education is reserved for the richest Americans while the rest of us are left to fend for ourselves and forced to take on a lifetime of debt. Americans won’t forget this betrayal,”
Senate megabill marks biggest Medicaid cuts in history --Senate Republicans on Tuesday passed the largest cuts to Medicaid since the program began in the 1960s, a move that would erode the social safety net and cause a spike in the number of uninsured Americans over the next decade. The tax and spending bill is projected to cost more than $3 trillion during that time, but it would be partially paid for with about $1 trillion in cuts to Medicaid. Almost 12 million lower-income Americans would lose their health insurance by 2034, according to the Congressional Budget Office (CBO). It still needs to pass the House again, where some moderate Republicans have expressed concerns about the cuts. The CBO was still analyzing the bill after it was released late Friday, and many last-minute changes meant a more exact forecast on coverage losses wasn’t possible before the Senate rushed to vote on it. President Trump and most congressional Republicans say the reductions aren’t true cuts. They argue nobody who should be on Medicaid will lose benefits. “We’re cutting $1.7 trillion in this bill, and you’re not going to feel any of it,” President Trump said at the White House last week. Still, experts and health advocates say the CBO analysis confirms that despite Trump’s repeated pledges to only cut waste, fraud and abuse in Medicaid, the legislation would enact an unprecedented reduction in the program currently used by more than 70 million low-income Americans. Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) made an impassioned speech on the Senate floor Sunday night warning that Trump was breaking his promise not to cut Medicaid. “The people in the White House advising the president, they’re not telling him that the effect of this bill is to break a promise,” Tillis said the day after announcing he would not seek reelection. “I’m telling the president, you have been misinformed. You supporting the Senate mark will hurt people who are eligible and qualified for Medicaid.” Over time, the losses will blunt the significant coverage gains made under the Affordable Care Act (ACA), signed by then-President Obama in 2010. “This bill isn’t being crafted to improve health care in America, or to improve the Medicaid program, or to improve the [ACA]. The purpose of these cuts in the bill is to try to find savings to pay for tax cuts,” said Andrea Ducas, vice president of health policy at the Democratic-aligned Center for American Progress. “It’s treating these health care programs as a [piggy bank]. It’s just, how do we extract as much from these programs as humanly possible so that we can find the savings to pay for tax cuts,” Ducas said.
How the megabill shakes up fossil fuels, renewables - The fossil fuel sector is taking a victory lap following Senate passage Tuesday of high-profile legislation that also doubled down on Republican plans to slash clean energy tax breaks. “This historic legislation will help usher in a new era of energy dominance by unlocking opportunities for investment, opening lease sales and expanding access to oil and natural gas development,” American Petroleum Institute President Mike Sommers said in a statement after the Senate passage. “We will continue to work with policymakers to get this final package to President Trump’s desk.” The bill was revised just before passage to remove an excise tax on wind and solar projects and ease the timeline for phasing out credits for those industries, but clean energy advocates found little to cheer about. “Despite limited improvements, this legislation undermines the very foundation of America’s manufacturing comeback and global energy leadership. If this bill becomes law, families will face higher electric bills, factories will shut down, Americans will lose their jobs, and our electric grid will grow weaker,” said Abigail Ross Hopper, president of the Solar Energy Industries Association. Prior to the last minute changes, the climate change-focused data modeling group Energy Innovation projected the bill will slash power generation capacity 300 gigawatts by 2035, largely due to lost development of wind farms. That’s enough electricity to power hundreds of millions of homes. The megabill’s passage sets up a potential fight with House Republican budget hawks. The Senate legislation could balloon the debt close to $4 trillion, according to some analysis. No House Democrats are expected to back the bill, meaning Speaker Mike Johnson of Louisiana is only able to lose a few votes from his caucus. Rep. Chip Roy (R-Texas) called the revised clean energy language a “deal killer” on X, signaling the political obstacles facing the GOP. The legislation comes amid a big push by the Trump administration to build out more fossil fuel infrastructure, primarily new natural gas plants and pipelines and mineral projects. Top administration officials say fossil fuels are needed to meet rising power demand driven by artificial intelligence projects and broad electrification of the U.S. economy. As part of that push, EPA is rolling back power plant regulations and taking initial steps to repeal the basis for regulations on U.S. greenhouse gas emissions. Meanwhile, the departments of Energy and the Interior and the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission are advancing measures to pare environmental reviews for new infrastructure projects. Energy Secretary Chris Wright has publicly championed the budget legislation, known as the “One Big Beautiful Bill Act,” arguing that the removal of wind and solar subsidies will make the U.S. energy system cheaper and more reliable. “You never know if these energy sources will actually be able to produce electricity when you need it — because you don’t know if the sun will be shining or the wind blowing,” Wright said in a recent op-ed for the New York Post. “How valuable is a teammate who occasionally shows up for practice but is never there at game time?” Fossil fuels The Senate bill boosts the fossil fuel sector in ways that are absent in the House reconciliation bill passed in late May. Companies that capture carbon and use it for enhanced oil recovery would receive an $85-per-ton maximum tax credit — the same rate given to companies that sequester the captured carbon geologically underground. The carbon capture tax credit, known as 45Q, is in place for projects that start construction before 2033, marking a rare instance of a tax credit with a long runway in the legislation. Other tax provisions would give more breaks to oil and gas producers for “intangible drilling and development costs,” a term used to describe expenses for drilling systems but not the well itself. Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) has lobbied against the provision. Together, the price tag for the new tax breaks is roughly $15 billion, according to an analysis by the Joint Committee on Taxation. Melissa Simpson, president of the industry trade group Western Energy Alliance, praised the Senate bill. “We’re witnessing summer heat waves, strains on the electrical grid, and families are traveling for the July Fourth holiday,” she said in a statement. “In DC, senators responded by moving a monumental bill that’ll unleash the energy we need. We’re especially pleased with provisions promoting oil and natural gas production on public lands.” Fossil fuel opponents are up in arms. “Anyone who said the Senate would be a moderating influence on this legislation is certainly looking quite naive right now,” said Lukas Shankar-Ross, deputy director of the climate and energy justice program at Friends of the Earth. “There were a lot of general corporate tax provisions in the House bill, but there were comparatively few carve-outs for the oil and gas industry itself.” Meanwhile, the bill would also benefit the coal sector. Metallurgical coal, the type used to make steel and other industrial goods, would get a 2.5 percent tax break as part of the 45X advanced manufacturing tax credit if the Senate bill becomes law. “This thing is a travesty,” Mike Williams, a senior fellow at the left-leaning Center for American Progress, said of the bill. “We are literally turning heel and walking away from all these clean energy technologies and doubling down on coal, let alone oil and gas.” Williams said much of the metallurgical coal produced in the U.S. is likely to be sent to foreign steel producers like India, which is poised for big — and dirty — growth in the steel sector. Most of the steel produced in the U.S. is made with recycled steel, obviating the need for virgin metallurgical coal. The Trump administration is seeking to bolster the U.S. coal sector with a wide variety of policies, including forcing utilities to keep coal plants operating past planned retirements. The final Senate text on wind and solar was changed after a push from Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska) and other Republican moderates. Along with removing the excise tax, the bill would allow projects to receive tax credits as long as they start construction by mid-2026 or are plugged into the grid by the end of 2027. That was a shift from earlier language that focused on when projects only are placed in service rather than commencing construction. Clean energy groups had pushed for the latter to provide more certainty for developers. Under the plan, projects starting construction next year would have several more years to obtain tax credits. Yet renewable supporters said the final text could lead to a slowdown of projects. It’s less “cataclysmic” for clean energy, but is not a positive outcome for wind and solar, said Harry Godfrey, who leads federal affairs for Advanced Energy United. A remaining barrier for renewables is “foreign entities of concern” (FEOC) language that requires developers to show they are not building projects with components from China and other specific countries. The final bill included some guidelines on how to comply, but additional clarification from the Treasury Department likely would be needed for projects starting construction next year, said Ben King, an analyst at Rhodium Group. That could be challenging, considering it could take months for Treasury to develop rules. The agency could also interpret final language in a way that is more restrictive for certain industries. The text “provides a lot of headwind” for wind and solar, said King, adding that it’s difficult for industries to set up complex tracking systems of their supply chains. There also are restrictions on Chinese components being used in manufacturing projects. Flakoll said that could be more challenging for solar than wind, which has a more localized supply chain. If the language becomes law, wind and solar projects will still get built since they are economically competitive in many locations, but “it is going to be hard to keep pace” with rising electricity demand, Flakoll said. Mike Carr, executive director of the Solar Energy Manufacturers for America Coalition, said the timelines in the Senate bill would “kill American manufacturing.” The group supported the foreign entity language. But because of the 2026 and 2027 timelines, the credit would not be relevant for many projects, Carr said. Solar projects after 2027 also would not be able to access what is known as the “domestic content adder,” which makes the credit 10 percent more lucrative if components are produced in the U.S. That language in the existing tax credit has been critical for domestic solar manufacturers, Carr said. “It has been working to shape the market,” he said. Domestic production of solar panels has surged sixfold since 2023. With credits being phased out by 2027, many developers will turn to Chinese-made components, he predicted.
Musk slams Trump megabill: ‘Political suicide for the Republican Party’ - - Tech billionaire Elon Musk again slammed President Trump’s “big, beautiful bill” on Saturday. “Polls show that this bill is political suicide for the Republican Party,” Musk said Saturday in a post on the social platform X, which he owns. In another post on the platform, Musk called the bill “utterly insane and destructive.” “The latest Senate draft bill will destroy millions of jobs in America and cause immense strategic harm to our country!” he wrote. “Utterly insane and destructive. It gives handouts to industries of the past while severely damaging industries of the future.”Musk has railed against the “big, beautiful bill” before, calling it a “disgusting abomination” earlier this month.“I’m sorry, but I just can’t stand it anymore. This massive, outrageous, pork-filled Congressional spending bill is a disgusting abomination,” Musk posted in early June on X. “Shame on those who voted for it: you know you did wrong. You know it,” he added.
Musk vows to back primary challengers to Republicans supporting Trump's bill --Elon Musk vowed Monday he would back primary challengers to any Republicans who supported President Trump’s megabill, a statement that comes after the two men’s relationship devolved into a bitter public feud earlier this month.“Every member of Congress who campaigned on reducing government spending and then immediately voted for the biggest debt increase in history should hang their head in shame!” Musk wrote on his X platform.“And they will lose their primary next year if it is the last thing I do on this Earth,” he added.In a separate post, he specifically called out House Freedom Caucus Chair Andy Harris (R-Md.) and fellow member Rep. Chip Roy (R-Texas).“How can you call yourself the Freedom Caucus if you vote for a DEBT SLAVERY bill with the biggest debt ceiling increase in history?” he asked, tagging the two lawmakers.Republicans are racing to pass Trump’s megabill this week ahead of their July 4 self-imposed deadline. Senators are participating in a lengthy vote-a-rama on Monday before they’ll finally vote on the legislation; the Senate GOP can lose support from three Republicans. The House will need to take up and pass the legislation after it goes through the Senate, before it heads to Trump’s desk.House Majority Whip Tom Emmer (R-Minn.) suggested a House vote could come as soon as Wednesday morning.Ever since Musk departed the White House, the Tesla CEO has been a vocal critic of Trump’s tax and spending bill, which looks to make the 2017 tax cuts permanent, among other priorities, and has been projected to add trillions of dollars to the deficit, according to multiple analyses.In an X post on Saturday, Musk derided the bill as “utterly insane and destructive,” saying that the latest version from the Senate “will destroy millions of jobs in America and cause immense strategic harm to our country!” Musk’s latest post comes just weeks after the Tesla CEO and Trump had a public falling out, with the two drawing personal barbs. Musk said he later regretted some of his social media posts, saying “they went too far.” But Musk’s vow to primary Republicans supporting the legislation is especially notable given that the former Trump advisor spent tens of millions of dollars supporting Trump’s 2024 bid last cycle, underscoring the rift between the two men.
Musk calls for new political party amid criticism of Trump megabill -- Elon Musk renewed his calls Monday for a new political party as he lodged sharp criticism against President Trump’s megabill as the Senate seeks to move toward a final vote on the reconciliation package.“It is obvious with the insane spending of this bill, which increases the debt ceiling by a record FIVE TRILLION DOLLARS that we live in a one-party country — the PORKY PIG PARTY!! Time for a new political party that actually cares about the people,” Musk wrote on social platform X, which he owns. The tech billionaire, whose close relationship with Trump quickly devolved into a public clash earlier this month month, has blasted Trump’s “big, beautiful bill” as “utterly insane” and “political suicide” for the GOP. Amid his tiff with Trump, Musk had previously launched a poll asking X users whether the country needed a new faction for political nominees; he then floated the idea of “The America Party” to “represent the 80% in the middle.” Musk, before stepping away from the White House last month, was the head of Trump’s Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), spearheading massive cuts and sweeping changes to the federal government. He’s now arguing that Trump’s ambitious tax and spending package undermines DOGE efforts to rein in spending. In a subsequent post Monday, Musk called out House Freedom Caucus Chair Andy Harris (R-Md.) and Rep. Chip Roy (R-Texas).“How can you call yourself the Freedom Caucus if you vote for a DEBT SLAVERY bill with the biggest debt ceiling increase in history?” Musk wrote.The Senate’s version of the bill would increase the deficit by nearly $3.3 trillion between 2025 and 2034, roughly $1 trillion more than the House-passed version, according to the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office.Senate Republicans were facing a marathon vote-a-rama Monday, while the White House has continued to stress a Friday deadline to get the legislation onto the president’s desk.
‘Don’t you dare’: GOP’s Roy dismisses White House argument on megabill -Vice President Vance and White House deputy chief of staff for policy Stephen Miller are centering their public closing arguments for the “big, beautiful bill” on immigration enforcement — prompting sharp pushback from one GOP holdout. “Don’t you dare come to me and say this is about border,” said Rep. Chip Roy (R-Texas), who is highly critical of the Senate’s changes to the bill and who serves as a barometer for other deficit hawks in the House GOP. “This is a how-many-trillion-dollar bill, with how much in terms of debt and how many issues at play? You want to come back and tell me it’s about $150 billion border funding?” Roy told me. Roy’s pushback came as Vance urged Republicans to brush aside concerns about deficits and Medicaid reforms in order to fuel President Trump’s mass deportation agenda with the billions for Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE), border agents, a border wall and other immigration enforcement priorities. “Everything else—the CBO [Congressional Budget Office] score, the proper baseline, the minutiae of the Medicaid policy—is immaterial compared to the ICE money and immigration enforcement provisions,” Vance posted on social platform X late Monday night. Miller went on Sean Hannity’s Fox News show Monday night to stress the conservative wins in Trump’s tax cut and spending priorities bill. “This is the most far-reaching border security proposal, Homeland Security proposal in my lifetime. Sean, not just my lifetime, going back to Eisenhower, going back to since we’ve had about the border,” Miller said. And in an apparent response to House GOP complaints that the Senate parliamentarian stripped out a provision punishing states that give Medicaid benefits to immigrants who entered the country illegally, Miller posted Tuesday on X: “The best way to keep illegal aliens from getting free healthcare is to deport them.” White House spokesperson Abigail Jackson underscored the immigration messaging in a statement. “President Trump’s One, Big, Beautiful bill slashes deficits and debt and unleashes economic growth while delivering on another one of the President’s key promises: deport criminal illegal aliens and permanently secure the border,” Jackson said. “While the President has already been extraordinarily successful on these two fronts, the One Big Beautiful Bill is critical to fortify his success and make the progress permanent.” The public focus on the border and immigration arguments frustrated Roy, who pointed back to the one-or-two debate in January, when Republicans were debating whether to pursue one or two bills to enact Trump’s top legislative priorities through the budget reconciliation process — which allows them to bypass the 60-vote threshold and the need for Democratic votes in the Senate but that can only be used once per fiscal year. The House Freedom Caucus had pitched a two-step strategy in January, quickly delivering a boost for Trump’s immigration enforcement agenda while addressing the tax cut extension later. “I would direct them to the memo that we in the Freedom Caucus and conservatives put out,” Roy said. “Here’s the two-bill strategy. We will deliver you a debt ceiling increase. We will deliver you border funding. We will deliver you defense funding, and we want some modest, you know, upfront spending restraint to go along with that. And then let’s go debate tax and spend. And a different choice was made. And so here we are.” Republicans, at the direction of Trump, ultimately went for the “one big, beautiful bill,” as Trump put it — eventually adopting the moniker as the official title of the legislation. Trump addressed the multi- versus single-bill debate Tuesday: “Smaller bills would have been easy, but they wouldn’t have been as good.” Putting all the bill sweeteners together is also useful for GOP leaders trying to push holdouts to support the bill and drag the legislation across the finish line — by making the exact kind of arguments that Vance and Miller are making.
Marjorie Taylor Greene: 'No way' Speaker Johnson has votes to pass GOP megabill -- Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) predicted a tough battle ahead for President Trump’s agenda-setting tax and spending megabill as it returns to the House following its dramatic Senate passage Tuesday, describing the situation as a “s— show.”“There’s no way that [Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.)] has the votes in the House for this,” Greene told political pundit and Trump ally Steve Bannon on an episode of his “War Room” podcast. “I think it’s far from over.”She added, “It is really a dire situation.”The House returned to the Capitol on Wednesday to try to hash out differences between its version of the bill and the one advanced through the Senate — which was narrowly passed after a tiebreaking vote from Vice President Vance following a marathon debate on its specifics. Trump has pressed GOP lawmakers to send the bill to him for final approval by Friday.“We’re on a time clock that’s been really set on us, so we have a lot of pressure — and then also given the fact that there’s 435 members of Congress and it’s hard for us to get to an agreement on anything,” Greene continued. “So this whole thing is — I don’t know what to call it — it’s a s‑‑‑ show.”“I know we’re not supposed to say that on the air, but that’s truly what it is,” the Georgia Republican added.The House passed its take on the bill in May in a razor-thin 215-214 vote amid pressure from Trump, Vance and other White House allies.Johnson and other GOP leaders have been trying to bring skeptical House members on board with changes that the Senate made in its version by this week’s self-imposed deadline Trump has pushed.“We knew we would come to this moment. We knew the Senate would amend the House product. I encouraged them to amend it as lightly as possible. They went a little further than many of us would have preferred, but we have the product now,” Johnson told reporters in the Capitol on Tuesday. “As the president said, it’s his bill. It’s not a House bill, it’s not a Senate bill, it’s the American people’s bill.”
White House summons House GOP holdouts threatening Trump megabill --A cross-section of House Republicans — from hard-line conservatives to moderates — are headed to the White House on Wednesday to meet with President Trump about the party’s tax cut and spending bill. The meetings come as GOP leaders lean on Republican holdouts who have voiced serious opposition to the bill, threatening leadership’s hopes of getting it to the president’s desk by July 4. Hard-liners are vowing to vote against the procedural rule for the bill, which would bring the House floor to a standstill.Rep. Ralph Norman (R-S.C.), a member of the conservative House Freedom Caucus who voted against the rule in committee early Wednesday, said he was headed to the White House to meet with Trump, along with other lawmakers in the group. A source familiar with the matter told The Hill that the White House invited Freedom Caucus members to the gathering.Most Republican lawmakers relented on their concerns with the bill when it came up in the House the first time after Trump and the White House deployed a strong pressure campaign, cajoling the members to get on board. This time around, however, some members are demanding changes to the Senate-passed version of the legislation to win their support.Deficit hawks in the House Freedom Caucus and beyond are furious that the Senate version of the bill does not adhere to the House framework hammered out months ago, which called for dollar-for-dollar spending reductions to offset tax cuts.House Freedom Caucus Chair Andy Harris (R-Md.) said that without those changes, a group of members in his caucus and beyond will sink the procedural rule vote to tee up debate on the bill, dealing an embarrassing blow to GOP leaders.“Hopefully it goes back to Rules [Committee], gets moved closer to the House position, and the Senate gets called back into town,” Harris said. “Senate never should have left town. The President asked us to stay until this issue was resolved and the Senate left town.”
Live updates: GOP leaders lean on holdouts ahead of critical Trump megabill vote - GOP sources, though, say leaders are not interested in making any changes — arguing that the Senate made the bill more conservative in some areas and more moderate in other areas, but it is overwhelmingly similar to what the House passed last month.Asked about the White House wanting the House to pass this version of the bill, Harris said: “Well, the White House doesn’t have a voting card.”Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) met with a group of deficit hawks, including many in the House Freedom Caucus, Wednesday morning. He told The Hill on the way into the gathering that he planned to tell lawmakers “we got to get this done.”He departed the meeting more than 40 minutes later, telling The Hill it was “productive, we’re moving forward,” but being non-committal on if the House would vote on the procedural rule Wednesday, as planned.
What to know about the $6,000 ‘senior deduction’ in GOP megabill - -The Senate’s version of the “big, beautiful bill,” passed on Tuesday, includes a $6,000 tax deduction for Americans 65 or older.The provision does not entirely end taxes on Social Security, but it would zero out the Social Security tax burden for 88 percent of seniors, according to an estimate by President Trump’s Council of Economic Advisers. That’s up from 64 percent of seniors who are currently exempt from Social Security taxes, meaning about 14 million additional seniors will benefit from the change. The version of Trump’s megabill that squeezed through the Senate yesterday would offer a tax deduction of $6,000 to seniors making up to $75,000 individually, or $150,000 on a joint return. The deduction is lowered for incomes above that level, and phased out altogether for seniors with individual incomes of more than $175,000, or $250,000 jointly. Seniors can currently claim a standard deduction of $15,000 (or $30,000 for couples), plus an additional senior-specific deduction of $2,000 (or $3,600 for couples). The Senate bill would also raise the standard deduction by a few hundred dollars.The median income for seniors in 2022 was about $30,000.The new legislation is expected to provide limited benefits for lower-income seniors because they already pay less in taxes.“While it may be pitched as going to low-income seniors, low-income seniors don’t pay taxes already,” Marc Goldwein of the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget (CRFB) told The Washington Post.Goldwein said the new deduction would be more meaningful for upper-middle-class seniors.
GOP deficit hawks list complaints on megabill ahead of vote -A memo from deficit hawks in the House Freedom Caucus and others tore into the Senate-passed version of the “big, beautiful bill” of President Trump’s tax cut and spending priorities as GOP leaders rush to try to pass the legislation before their self-imposed July 4 deadline. Titled “The Senate OBBA Failures,” the memo shared with The Hill on Wednesday takes aim at Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) and Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) over the bill’s not adhering to the House framework, which called for dollar-for-dollar spending cuts to offset tax cuts. “This was not what Leader Thune and Speaker Johnson promised,” it said. Punchbowl News first reported on the three-page memo. While House GOP leaders aim to pass the megabill as soon as Wednesday, opposition from deficit hawks is threatening the plan to deliver the bill to Trump by Independence Day. House Freedom Caucus Chair Andy Harris (R-Md.) said that without those changes, a group of members in his caucus and beyond will sink the procedural rule vote to tee up debate on the bill, dealing an embarrassing blow to GOP leaders. “Hopefully it goes back to Rules [Committee], gets moved closer to the House position, and the Senate gets called back into town,” Harris said. “Senate never should have left town. The president asked us to stay until this issue was resolved, and the Senate left town.” The memo also criticizes the Senate for softening the phaseout of green energy incentives, saying it “fails to terminate Biden’s ‘Green New Scam.’” Some of the complaints deal with measures that were axed by the Senate parliamentarian for not complying with the Byrd Rule, which dictates that budget reconciliation legislation must be directly related to budget matters. The special process that can be used once per fiscal year bypasses the Senate’s 60-vote threshold and the need to get Democratic support for the bill, enabling Republicans to push the bill to Trump’s desk along party lines. The memo says that the Senate “stripped key protection against illegals getting medicaid,” for instance — in reference to the parliamentarian axing a House provision that punished states that fund Medicaid benefits for migrants who entered the U.S. illegally. And while it dings the legislation for making a provision that would defund Planned Parenthood last for just one year and for eliminating “the prohibition on Medicaid and CHIP funding for transgender surgeries,” those were also changes made due to parliamentarian rulings. It slams the Senate for changing new work requirements for nutrition assistance benefits. While the House called for work requirements to apply to those with children older than 7, the Senate upped that age to 14. And it tore into provisions added to the bill at the last minute to secure support from Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska), including expensing for meals on Alaskan fishing boats and special waivers for work requirements and cost-sharing requirements for nutrition benefits. “In total, the Senate gutted House spending cuts and added new spending to the tune of more than $400 billion. Absent these cumulative changes, the Senate bill would have at least been in the ballpark of the House framework (before wraparound amendment changes),” the three-pager said. “These losses include (1) gutting House reforms to SNAP; (2) undermining the House’s reforms to student loan programs; (3) slashing the House’s endowment tax on ‘woke’ elite universities; (4) eliminating President Trump’s provision to close tax loopholes abused by professional sports team owners; (5) massively expanding tax subsidies for semiconductors, despite the President’s call to ‘get rid of the CHIPS Act’ during his address to Congress, in addition to other swampy tax expenditures like a tax break tied to rum imported from U.S. territories; and (6) adding tens of billions in new spending for NASA, the Coast Guard, farm programs, and more.”
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez criticizes Senate GOP's $25K cap on tip deductions in megabill -Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) took aim Wednesday at the $25,000 cap on the “no tax on tips” provision included in the Senate-passed version of President Trump’s “big, beautiful” spending and tax bill.“As one of the only people in this body who has lived off of tips, I want to tell you a little bit about the scam of that text, a little bit of the fine print there,” Ocasio-Cortez said during her floor speech, amid debate on the rule for the revised megabill.“The cap on that is $25,000,” she said, “while you’re jacking up taxes on people who make less than $50,000 across the United States, while taking away their [Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program] program, while take taking away their Medicaid, while kicking them off of the [Affordable Care Act] and their health care extensions.”The reconciliation package, which advanced back to the House after Vice President Vance cast a tie-breaking vote Tuesday, includes a $25,000 cap on the amount of tips workers can claim in their deductions. The lower chamber’s bill, which was passed in May, did not place a cap under the “no tax on tips” provision — one of Trump’s campaign promises.Those tax breaks, however, are temporary and are set to expire after 2028. While the GOP policy bill does not increase tax rates for low-income workers, the after-tax take-home pay for workers could be lower after the benefit cuts are taken into account, according to nonpartisan policy analyses.“So, if you’re at home, and you’re living off tips, you do the math,” Ocasio-Cortez said Wednesday. “Is that worth it to you — losing all your health care, not able to feed your babies, not being able to put a diaper on their bottom? In exchange for what?”“This bill is a deal with the devil,” she continued. “It explodes our national debt, it militarizes our entire economy, and it strips away health care and basic dignity of the American people. For what? To give Elon Musk a tax break, and billionaires, the greedy, taking of our nation.” The New York Democrat added, “We cannot stand for it, and we will not support it. You should be ashamed.”
House Rules Committee advances Trump megabill as potential GOP revolt looms -The House Rules Committee advanced the GOP’s sweeping tax and spending bill early Wednesday morning after an hours-long meeting, sending the legislation to the floor for consideration as its fate in the chamber remains unclear.The panel adopted the procedural rule in a 7-6 vote, with two Republicans — Reps. Chip Roy (R-Texas) and Ralph Norman (R-S.C.) — siding with Democrats against the measure, showcasing their opposition to the underlying legislation over deficit concerns.The hearing ran for nearly 12 hours, with Democrats needling Republicans about the bill, GOP lawmakers largely praising the measure and some hard-line conservatives criticizing its contents. The panel convened at 1:30 p.m. EDT on Tuesday and gaveled out just after 1 a.m. EDT on Wednesday.Despite the successful vote, the legislation is far from being out of the woods. The full chamber must now debate and vote to adopt the procedural rule, which could get dicey as a handful of hard-line conservatives vow to oppose the effort. If the rule fails, legislative business in the House would be brought to a standstill, threatening to thwart leadership’s goal of sending President Trump the package by Friday.Republicans can afford to lose three votes and still clear the procedural hurdle, assuming full attendance and united Democratic opposition. The House is scheduled to convene on Wednesday at 9 a.m. EDT, with debate first, then a vote.Two of those defectors, however, are already called for: Norman and Rep. Andy Harris (R-Md.), the chair of the conservative House Freedom Caucus, say they will vote against the rule on the floor — and Harris said others will join them.“That’s exactly why a group of us are not going to vote to advance the bill until we iron out some of the deficit problems with the bills,” Harris said on Fox News when asked about Elon Musk’s criticism of the bill. “Look, Mr. Musk is right, we cannot sustain these deficits, he understands finances, he understands debts and deficits, and we have to make further progress. And I believe the Freedom Caucus will take the lead in making that further progress.”“I don’t think the votes are there, just like they weren’t for the Senate initially until some concessions were made,” he added. “I believe that the rule vote will not pass tomorrow morning, and then the Speaker’s going to have to decide how he gets this back into the House framework.” Rule votes have historically been routine, mundane occurrences, with the majority party voting in favor of the effort and the minority party voting against it. In recent years, however, those on the right-flank have used the procedure to express displeasure with specific legislation or leadership.Despite those threats, attendance issues may scuttle the right-flank’s plans. A number of members from both parties are having trouble returning to Washington amid inclement weather in the D.C.-Maryland-Virginia area. Several lawmakers have said their flights back to the city were canceled.Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) on Tuesday night said those conditions could influence when the bill comes up for a vote. “We’re having weather delays getting everybody back right now, but assuming we have a full House, we’ll get it through the Rules Committee in the morning, we’ll move that forward to the floor and hopefully we’re voting on this by tomorrow or Thursday at latest, depending on the weather and delays and all the rest; that’s the wildfire that we can’t control,” Johnson said on Fox News’s “Hannity” when asked about timing for the legislation.
House Republicans pass their megabill, sending it to President Trump – House Republicans passed their domestic policy megabill Thursday after nearly 24 hours of nonstop angst, discord and hands-on pressure from President Donald Trump and allies — ultimately uniting to deliver his top legislative priority. The 218-214 final vote is a major victory for congressional Republicans who pledged to send the bill to Trump’s desk before July 4. Speaker Mike Johnson muscled the bill through in the early-morning hours after a full day of meetings with holdouts, huddles on the House floor and gatherings of different factions at the White House. One preliminary vote Wednesday was held open for more than nine hours — what Democrats claimed was a new House record — as GOP leaders scrambled to secure the votes. Once they did, House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries delayed final action almost another nine hours with a record-breaking floor speech attacking the 887-page bill. The decisive vote ended up almost entirely along party lines. Only Republican Reps. Brian Fitzpatrick of Pennsylvania and Thomas Massie of Kentucky joined Democrats in opposition to the bill. What was not clear upon passage is what precisely a small band of holdouts, most of them members of the House Freedom Caucus, had secured in return for their votes. They were irate about changes that had been made to the bill in the Senate, but GOP leaders were insistent that no further tweaks would be made — which would require another time-consuming trip across Capitol Hill. The holdouts had been discussing the possibility of executive actions and other promises pertaining to the implementation of the sweeping legislation. But Johnson insisted no deals were cut. “We find out where the red lines are, and we try to navigate around them and get a product that everybody can buy into,” he told reporters. Angry Democrats, who had been left in a holding pattern most of the day Wednesday and deep into the night, seethed at the situation. “I have no idea what in the world the crowd that was holding out got for holding out,” said Rep. Brendan Boyle (D-Pa.) on the floor. “Does anyone know? It is a complete mystery to me and to the American people.” To most Republicans, however, final passage came as a relief after more than six months of intensive intraparty debates and negotiations about how the centerpiece of the Republican legislative agenda should be structured and what should be included. The centerpiece was always set to be an extension of the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, the signature bill of Trump’s first term. But Republicans quickly sparred over whether those tax cuts — a legislative hornet’s nest — should be packaged together with other, easier-to-pass GOP priorities or lopped off to pass separately. Trump sided with lawmakers, mainly in the House, who wanted to pass the whole domestic agenda in one piece, and what Trump would deem the “one big, beautiful bill” was born. On top of the tax package, which eventually swelled in excess of $4 trillion, were defense spending boosts, increased immigration enforcement and dramatic changes to some safety-net programs to help offset the costs. Republicans seized on rosy projections from White House economists while most independent analysts concluded the bill’s economic impacts would be relatively modest. House Budget Chair Jodey Arrington (R-Texas) touted the “largest tax cut in U.S. history” Thursday morning and promised a flurry of economic benefits, despite the bill mainly continuing tax policies already in place. “We can expect record job growth, investment, repatriation of capital back to the United States, record-low unemployment, record-high wage growth and the lowest poverty rates in recorded history,” he said. While the tax cuts were the glue meant to hold GOP support for the bill together, it was not always clear that hard-line fiscal hawks and moderate purple-district Republicans would be able to come to terms on a single piece of legislation. Those concerns were amplified after the Senate reshaped the bill the House passed in late May, making steeper cuts to Medicaid and speeding up the rollback of wind and solar energy tax credits, while also adding hundreds of billions of dollars more to the deficit than the House-passed bill did.Key blocs of House Republicans initially blanched at the changes, leading to hours of meetings Wednesday between GOP leadership and holdouts in an effort to quell the rebellion. With further changes to the bill off the table, lawmakers talked up the possibility of future executive actions from Trump. White House Budget Director Russ Vought came to the Capitol to discuss the possibility of future spending cuts with hard-liners and how exactly the administration planned to target key programs. Meanwhile, among purple-district Republicans nervous about a roughly $1 trillion cut to Medicaid, there were major concerns over how medical providers in their districts might be able to access a limited $50 billion fund for rural hospitals created in the Senate and whether the funding patch would be enough to compensate for cuts elsewhere.The Congressional Budget Office estimated the Senate-passed megabill would increase the number of people without health insurance by roughly 11.8 million in 2034. That estimate was posted before a slate of last-minute changes were made to the bill before Senate passage earlier this week.
House sends GOP’s ‘big, beautiful bill’ to Trump’s desk in major win for Republicans - The “big, beautiful bill” is heading to President Trump’s desk. House Republicans passed the core of Trump’s domestic policy agenda Thursday afternoon — including sweeping tax cuts, a crackdown on immigration, a boost for fossil fuels and huge cuts to Medicaid — overcoming months of bitter infighting on Capitol Hill to deliver what could be the defining legislation of Trump’s second term.The 218-214 vote came together after more than a year of intense planning by GOP lawmakers, weeks of scrambling to reconcile the conflicting visions among House and Senate Republicans, and days of last-minute lobbying to cajole holdouts in both chambers to get on board. In the end, two Republicans, Reps. Thomas Massie (Ky.) and Brian Fitzpatrick (Pa.), joined all Democrats in voting against the legislation, which was approved by the Senate two days earlier.“With one big, beautiful bill, we are gonna make this country stronger, safer and more prosperous than ever before, and every American is going to benefit from that,” Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) said during his remarks on the House floor before the vote. “Today we are laying a key cornerstone of America’s new golden age.”“We’ve had spirited debates, we’ve had months of deliberation, and now we are finally ready to fulfill our promise to the American people,” he added. “That’s what we are doing today.”The vote followed a marathon, historic speech by House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.), who commandeered the chamber for 8 hours and 44 minutes to rail against the GOP’s megabill and delay the final vote — surpassing the previous record of 8 hours and 32 minutes set by then-House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) in 2021 as a way to delay action on the Democrats’ social spending and climate package. What to know about Republican megabill’s $6,000 tax deduction for seniors -The overwhelming Republican support was a reflection of both the enormous appetite within the GOP for extending the 2017 tax cuts and a demonstration of Trump’s immense grip on his party, where loyalty to the president is presumed and defectors risk a career-ending political backlash.The legislation combines virtually all of the major campaign planks of Trump’s domestic policy platform. In addition to extending the 2017 tax cuts of Trump’s first term, it expands those cuts to eliminate some taxes on tips and Social Security and increase the state and local tax (SALT) deduction cap, which had emerged as one of the thorniest sticking points throughout negotiations.It gives a $150 billion boost in funding for a border wall, immigration enforcement and deportations. It provides $150 billion in new defense spending for priorities like shipbuilding and a “Golden Dome” missile defense project. It cuts incentives that promote green energy and expands domestic production of oil, coal and natural gas. It will hike the debt ceiling by $5 trillion, forestalling the threat of a federal default.And it features sharp cuts to low-income health and nutrition programs — reductions designed to help offset the loss of revenues from the tax cuts but that are also expected to eliminate health coverage for millions of people. Even so, the cuts aren’t steep enough to cover the whole tab: The Congressional Budget Office estimates the net effect of the package will be an additional $3.3 trillion in deficit spending over the next decade.
How Donald Trump's megabill will affect income taxes -- With the GOP’s “big, beautiful bill” headed to President Trump’s desk for signature Friday, wealthy Americans are poised to receive significant tax breaks partly offset by steep cuts to social welfare programs. The bill makes 2017 tax breaks from Trump’s first term permanent, while adding some new tax breaks, like no taxes on tips up to $25,000 and a “senior deduction” that will allow more people over 65 to avoid Social Security taxes. Some policy analyses show that the tax cuts for lower earners may be offset by the new costs they incur from lost support for health care and food assistance. Most households — about 85 percent — would get a tax cut in 2026, according to an analysis from the Tax Policy Center. But while many of the bill’s changes are permanent, other provisions, such as the new deduction for seniors, are set to expire within a couple years. The center estimates that by 2030 only about 70 percent of households would continue to have a tax break. The center also estimates that nearly 60 percent of the tax benefits would go to those in the top quintile of annual incomes (about $217,000 or more). Those households would receive an average tax cut of $12,500.While other estimates of the bill’s tax changes by income bracket vary, they largely agree that the tax breaks generally increase moving up the income ladder. For taxes filed in 2026, households making between $217,000 and $318,000 would see their after-tax income raise 2.6 percent, a tax break of about $5,400. For Americans making $318,000 to $460,000 — in the 90th to 95th percentile — that cut would be about $8,900, or a 3.1 percent increase to their after-tax income. Those making between $460,000 and $1.1 million would receive the biggest break: a $21,000 change, increasing their after-tax income by 4.4 percent. The top 1 percent and the top 0.1 percent — households making more than $1.1 million or $5 million — would see their after-tax incomes increase 3.5 percent and 3.2 percent, respectively. The tax breaks for the rest of Americans are far less substantial, according to the center’s estimates. Households making between $100,000 and $200,000 a year would see their after-tax income increase by 2.5 percent, about a $3,000 tax break. For those making between $75,000 and $100,000, the tax cut as a percentage of income is similar — at about $1,700 or 2.3 percent. Americans earning between $50,000 and $75,000 will have a $1,000 tax break. For those making between $40,000 and $50,000, that cut will be about $630. Those are after-tax boosts of 1.9 percent and 1.5 percent, respectively.Those in the bottom quintile of incomes, making below $34,600 a year, would see their taxes decrease by about $150, or a 0.8 percent increase in their after-tax income. However, benefits that low-income Americans could see in tax breaks could be offset by the bill’s sweeping cuts to Medicaid and food stamps. Federal Medicaid spending is estimated to decrease by about $1 trillion, resulting in about 12 million low-income Americans losing their health insurance by 2034, according to the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office. The bill also includes work requirements for Medicaid and for Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program benefits, also known as food stamps, which could disenroll millions from both programs. Many of the bill’s tax deductions will start in 2025, and some of them will be permanent. That includes a permanent increase in the child tax credit to $2,200 and an increase in the standard deduction by $750. Other new tax cuts, especially those core to Trump’s campaign promises, are set to expire in a couple of years. A new $6,000 deduction for Americans over 65 will last only through 2028. A $25,000 deduction designed to eliminate taxes on tips will also only last for three years. The same goes for another $12,500 deduction meant to curb taxes on overtime.The amount that households can deduct in state and local taxes on their federal returns, known as the SALT cap, will also increase to $40,000. Previously capped at $10,000, SALT deductions were a major sticking point among House Republicans during the first rounds of negotiations on the bill in May.All these cuts are expensive, although estimates vary. The nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office says the bill would add $3.4 trillion to the debt over 10 years while the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget said it would add $4.1 trillion. The conservative Cato Institute put the figure as high as $6 trillion.
House Passes Trump's 'Big Beautiful Bill' That Will Bring the 2026 Military Budget Over $1 Trillion - The House on Thursday passed a massive piece of legislation, dubbed the “Big Beautiful Bill” by President Trump, that includes extra military spending to bring the 2026 military budget over $1 trillion.The bill passed in a vote of 218-214, with only two Republicans — Reps. Thomas Massie (KY) and Brian Fitzpatrick (PA) — and every Democrat voting against it. The legislation has already passed the Senate and now heads to President Trump’s desk for his signature.The legislation includes $150 billion in additional military spending, and the White House plans to use $113 billion of it to supplement the 2026 military budget, bringing it to approximately $1.006 trillion, representing a 13% increase from 2025.The $150 billion will go toward several military priorities of the Trump administration, including the so-called “Golden Dome,” a plan for a sprawling missile defense system in the United States that’s sure to kick off a new arms race and will be a boondoggle for the weapons makers. According to Breaking Defense, the $150 billion includes:
- $29 billion for shipbuilding
- $25 billion for Golden Dome
- $25 billion for munitions
- $16 billion for innovative technologies such as drones, AI, and low-cost weapons
- $15 billion for nuclear “modernization”
- $12 billion for the US military’s buildup in the Asia Pacific
- $9 billion for air superiority
While the US has never officially had a $1 trillion military budget, the actual cost of US military spending has exceeded $1 trillion for years. According to veteran defense analyst Winslow Wheeler, based on the $895 billion National Defense Authorization Act, US national security spending for 2025 was expected to reach about $1.77 trillion.
US Halting Some Weapons Shipments To Ukraine As Own Military Stockpiles Plummet - The Trump administration could finally be willing to bring real pressure to bear on the Zelensky government, as on Tuesday the White House confirmed that it its halting some weapons shipments to Ukraine.White House spokesperson Anna Kelly told CBS News that in the context of the Russia-Ukraine war the "decision was made to put America's interests first following" a Defense Department "review of our nation's military support and assistance to other countries across the globe."This comes after many reports over the last couple years sounding the alarm that US military stockpiles are falling too low, and that they will continue to be depleted based on past Ukraine policy.While it's unknown precisely which weapons will be halted, or in what quanitites, Kelly asserted that "The strength of the United States Armed Forces remains unquestioned — just ask Iran."However, we should note that the massive B-2 bomber raids sent against Iran's nuclear facilities was widely questioned among the US public for not exactly being 'America first'. Instead it appeared to prioritize the defense of Israel first.Still, all the usual 'options' are on the table, we are assured by the Pentagon: Elbridge Colby, Defense Department under secretary for policy, said in a separate statement Tuesday night in response to the move that the "Department of Defense continues to provide the President with robust options to continue military aid to Ukraine, consistent with his goal of bringing this tragic war to an end. At the same time, the Department is rigorously examining and adapting its approach to achieving this objective while also preserving U.S. forces' readiness for Administration defense priorities."A potential draw down or limitation of arms sent to Ukraine is likely also driven by the reality that the battlefield hasn't changed substantially due to Washington and US-taxpayer funded assistance. If anything the Russians keep advancing, now with an eye on Sumy and expanding the Putin-ordered buffer zone. Ukrainian sources say that that Russian forces have successfully expanded their occupation.
Report: Pentagon Halts Some Munitions Shipments To Ukraine Over Concerns That US Stockpiles Are Too Low - The Pentagon has halted shipments of some air defense missiles and other munitions to Ukraine over concerns that US stockpiles have gotten too low,POLITICO reported on Tuesday.The report said the decision was driven by Elbridge Colby, the undersecretary of defense for policy, a China hawk who wants the US to focus on building up its forces in the Asia Pacific to prepare for a conflict over Taiwan.The halt of the shipments was ordered after a review of Pentagon munition stockpiles, which found that the number of artillery shells, air defense missiles, and precision munitions was dwindling. The US has sent Ukraine an enormous number of such weapons, and it has also been depleting air defenses supporting Israel’s wars in the Middle East.The shipments that have been paused were previously pledged to Ukraine under the Biden administration using two types of aid mechanisms: the Presidential Drawdown Authority, which allows the US to ship weapons directly from Pentagon stockpiles, and the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative, which authorizes the US to purchase arms for Ukraine.During his final months in office, President Biden approved billions of dollars worth of weapons shipments under the two mechanisms, which will take years to deliver. The Trump administration briefly paused the shipments following the Oval Office blow-up between President Trump and Ukrainian Volodymyr Zelensky, but the assistance was quickly resumed after US and Ukrainian officials held another meeting.
US Confirms It Has Halted Some Arms Shipments to Ukraine - US officials have confirmed that the Pentagon has halted the delivery of some air defense missiles and other munitions to Ukraine, a step being taken over concerns that US stockpiles have gotten too low.“This decision was made to put America’s interests first following a DoD review of our nation’s military support and assistance to other countries across the globe,” said White House spokeswoman Anna Kelly.Administration officials did not specify which weapons shipments have been halted, but reports say it applies to 155mm artillery rounds, GMLRS munitions for HIMARS rocket systems, Stinger anti-aircraft missiles, AIM-7 air-to-air missiles, Hellfire missiles, and munitions for Patriot air defense systems.The US recently used Patriot missiles to repel an Iranian attack on the Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar, which was retaliation for the US bombing of Iran’s nuclear facilities. Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Dan Caine said that he believed the defense of the base in Qatar was “the largest single Patriot engagement in US military history.”POLITICO, which first reported the halt of shipments to Ukraine, said the decision was taken at the direction of Elbridge Colby, the Pentagon’s policy chief, who is a China hawk and wants the US to focus on preparing for a war over Taiwan.“The Department of Defense continues to provide the President with robust options to continue military aid to Ukraine, consistent with his goal of bringing this tragic war to an end,” Colby said in a statement on Tuesday.“At the same time, the Department is rigorously examining and adapting its approach to achieving this objective while also preserving US forces’ readiness for Administration defense priorities,” he added.The weapons shipments being paused were previously approved by the Biden administration. During his final months in office, President Biden approved an enormous amount of military aid for Ukraine that would take years to be delivered.
Trump says US has given Ukraine too many weapons in first public comments on pause in shipments (AP) — President Donald Trump complained Thursday that the United States provided too many weapons to Ukraine under the previous administration, his first public comments on the pause in some shipments as Russia escalates its latest offensive. Speaking to reporters before boarding Air Force One for a flight to Iowa, Trump said former President Joe Biden “emptied out our whole country giving them weapons, and we have to make sure that we have enough for ourselves.” Air defense missiles, precision-guided artillery and other weapons are among those being withheld from Ukraine. The country suffered a new barrage overnight, with warnings of ballistic missiles followed by explosions in Kyiv. The sound of machine gun fire and drone engines could be heard across the capital. Trump, who also spoke to Russian President Vladimir Putin on Thursday, suggested he wasn’t completely cutting off American assistance to Ukraine. “We’ve given so many weapons,” he said, adding that “we are working with them and trying to help them.” Trump said he had a “pretty long call” with Putin that “didn’t make any progress” in resolving the war, which the Republican president had promised to swiftly bring to a conclusion. “I’m not happy about that,” he said.
Senate Democrats launch investigation into Trump’s pause of Russia sanctions - Three Democratic senators said Thursday they were launching an investigation into the Trump administration’s more than five-month pause on new sanctions against Russia related to its war in Ukraine. “Instead of taking clearly available steps to pressure the aggressors, President Trump is doing nothing and we will be investigating this missed opportunity to push for an end to this war,” Sens. Jeanne Shaheen (N.H.), Elizabeth Warren (Mass.) and Chris Coons (Del.), said in a joint statement. Since President Trump began his second term in January, the United States has not issued any new sanctions against Russia stemming from its invasion of Ukraine — in some cases even easing such restrictions. Under former President Biden, Washington imposed more than 6,200 sanctions against entities linked to Moscow targeting companies, trade and financial transactions that fuel its war machine — equalling more than 170 new sanctions a month, on average, according to an analysis from The New York Times. The lack of new sanctions, the lawmakers write, is only allowing Russian President Vladimir Putin to continue his attack on Ukraine, even as Trump has repeatedly stated he will quickly bring an end to the war. “Americans should be asking why a president who says he wants to end a major war is instead letting the aggressor run rampant,” they wrote. “On top of halting key assistance to Ukraine, President Trump has blocked regular updates to our sanctions and export controls for five months and counting — enabling a growing wave of evaders in China and around the world to continue supplying Russia’s war machine.”
Trump said he made 'no progress' in latest call with Putin -President Trump said Thursday he made “no progress” during his call with Russian President Vladimir Putin on attempts to broker a ceasefire in Ukraine. “We had a call. It was a pretty long call. Talked about a lot of things, including Iran,” Trump told reporters on Thursday as he departed for Iowa. “And we also talked about, as you know, the war with Ukraine, and I’m not happy about that.” Asked if he had made any progress in brokering an end to the fighting in Ukraine, Trump responded, “No. I didn’t make any progress with him today at all.” The two leaders spoke on Thursday morning. The call took place a day after the Pentagon confirmed a decision to halt the delivery of some air defense missiles and munitions to Ukraine, citing concerns about U.S. military stockpiles being depleted. Trump downplayed the impact when asked about the pause on Thursday evening. “We’re giving weapons … and we’re working with them and trying to help them,” Trump said. “But we have — you know Biden emptied out our whole country giving them weapons. And we have to make sure we have enough for ourselves.” The U.S. has given tens of billions of dollars in military aid to Ukraine since Russia launched its full-scale invasion of its neighbor in February 2022, though many Trump allies have expressed skepticism about continued American support for Kyiv. Democrats, and a small number of Republicans and European allies, have warned that abandoning Ukraine would be a major victory for Putin and Russia.
Trump Speaks With Putin, Says He Didn't 'Make Any Progress' on Ukraine - President Trump spoke with Russian President Vladimir Putin on Thursdayand said after the call that he didn’t “make any progress” on the issue of the Ukraine war. “We had a call, it was a pretty long call, and we talked about a lot of things, including Iran. And we also talked about the war with Ukraine, and I’m not happy about that,” Trump told reporters before boarding Air Force One.When asked if any progress was made on Ukraine, Trump said, “No, I didn’t make any progress today with him at all.”According to the Kremlin, Putin told Trump that Russia wouldn’t give up on its war goals. “Our president said that Russia will achieve its goals, that is, eliminate the well-known root causes that led to the current state of affairs, to the current harsh confrontation. And Russia will not give up on these goals,” said Putin aide Yury Ushakov.The call between the two leaders comes after the US halted the shipment of some air defenses and other munitions to Ukraine due to dwindling US stockpiles. Ushakov said that Trump and Putin didn’t discuss the halted US supplies to Ukraine.The war in Ukraine has continued to rage despite Trump’s dialogue with Russia and push for a ceasefire, as the two sides remain very far apart on their conditions to end the conflict. The pause on some US military aid shipments could increase the likelihood of Ukraine making concessions to Russia. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said on Wednesday that Ukraine was holding talks with the US to “clarify” the issue of US military support for Ukraine.
Report Estimates US Used $1.25 Billion Worth of THAAD Interceptors To Defend Israel From Iranian Missiles - A report from the Israeli newspaper Haaretz estimates that the US used 93 interceptors from its THAAD missile defense system to defend Israel from Iranian missiles during the 12-day US-Israeli war against Iran.At $13 million per interceptor, that means the US launched an estimated $1.25 billion worth of THAAD munitions during the war. The Israeli military also used its Arrow 2 and Arrow 3 interceptors, which are jointly produced with the US. The Haaretz report said that the total cost of the Arrow and THAAD interceptors used was about $1.5 billion.Haaretz reached its figures using open-source videos that showed 84 interceptors being launched from Israel during eight Iranian missile salvos. Extrapolating from there, the paper estimated that the US and Israel launched an estimated 195 interceptors, including the 93 THAADs, 80 Arrow 3s, and 22 Arrow 2sA report from Military Watch Magazine came up with similar numbers, estimating the US used 60 to 80 THAAD interceptors during the war, accounting for 15% to 20% of its global THAAD arsenal. The Biden administration first sent a THAAD system to Israel and about 100 troops to operate it in October 2024, ahead of an Israeli attack on Iran. In April of this year, reports said the US sent a second THAAD battery to Israel, which would mean that the US has two of its seven THAAD missile defense systems stationed in Israel.The US also intercepted Iranian missiles using US warships that were firing SM-3 interceptors, which cost between $10 million and $30 million per missile. It’s unclear how many SM-3 interceptors were fired, but the top officer in the US Navy said they were used at an “alarming rate” during the 12-day war. The Haaretz report said that Iran fired over 500 missiles at Israel during the war, including 272 that were likely allowed to fall in open areas, and 258 that Israeli and US air defenses attempted to intercept. The Israeli military has said 36 missiles struck built environments, but the number is likely higher since it issued censorship orders during the war and hasn’t shared information about strikes on military targets.
US Approves $510 Million Arms Deal for Israel - The Trump administration has approved a new arms deal for Israel that will provide the country with $510 million worth of Joint Direct Attack Munitions (JDAMS), kits that turn bombs into precision-guided weapons, as the US continues to provide military aid to support the genocidal war in Gaza.According to the Pentagon’s Defense Security Cooperation Agency (DSCA), the State Department notified Congress of the sale of 3,845 JDAMS for 2,000-pound BLU-109 bombs and 3,280 JDAMS for 500-pound MK 82 bombs. The deal also includes US “government and contractor engineering, logistics, and technical support services; and other related elements of logistics and program support.” The DSCA said Boeing is the principal contractor for the deal. The notification of the potential deal begins a time period when US lawmakers could potentially block the sale, but there’s little opposition to US military support for Israel within Congress, despite the many war crimes the US is implicated in by providing Israel with weapons. Fragments of bombs with US-provided JDAM kits have been found at the scene of Israeli airstrikes in Gaza that have massacred many civilians. In 2023, Human Rights Watch said it identified JDAM fragments that were found in two airstrikes on homes in central Gaza that killed 43 civilians, including 19 children, and 14 women. It’s unclear at this point how the deal will be financed, but many arms sales to Israel are funded by US military aid, and US assistance to Israel has significantly increased since October 7, 2023. According to the Israeli newspaper Haaretz, in that time, US funding has covered an estimated 70% of Israel’s war-related military spending.
US Refueled Israeli Jets Throughout Iran War - US military tanker aircraft refueled Israeli jets throughout the 12-day US-Israeli war against Iran to ease the burden on Israel’s limited and aging fleet of tankers, Israel Hayom has reported. The report said that “hundreds of aerial refuelings were conducted for Israeli fighter jets flying to Iran” during the 12 days of attacks on Iran. It was always believed that Israel wouldn’t be able to launch significant airstrikes on Iran without the US supporting the attacks with refueling. In the first days of the 12-day war, dozens of US KC-135s, KC-46s, and other tanker aircraft were spotted by flight trackers leaving the United States and heading east across the Atlantic Ocean. US officials confirmed that the tanker deployment was related to the Middle East, and the Israel Hayomreport said that some of them were used to refuel Israeli jets. Besides the refueling, the US also supported Israel’s attacks on Iran by providing intelligence, helping intercept Israeli missiles and drones, and eventually launching its own airstrikes on three Iranian nuclear facilities using B-2 bombers, a fleet of fighter jets, and a submarine. It’s unclear how much the 12-day war cost the US, but it must be in the billions, as a report from Military Watch Magazine estimated that the US used 15% to 20% of its global THAAD anti-missile arsenal, which comes at a cost of at least $800 million. The US is believed to have two of its seven THAAD missile defense systems stationed in Israel, along with US troops to operate them.
Trump Calls for Gaza Deal But Israeli Government Discussing Only a Temporary Ceasefire - President Trump on Sunday called for a deal that would release the remaining Israeli captives in Gaza, but there’s no sign that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is ready to end his genocidal war.“MAKE THE DEAL IN GAZA. GET THE HOSTAGES BACK!!! DJT,” Trump wrote in a post on Truth Social.According to Israel Hayom, the Israeli security cabinet is expected to hold a meeting on Sunday night to discuss the prospect of a Gaza deal, but one that would involve only a temporary ceasefire, an idea that’s been repeatedly rejected by Hamas. The Palestinian group’s long-standing position is that it’s willing to release the remaining Israelis in exchange for a permanent ceasefire and Israeli withdrawal from Gaza.Sources close to Netanyahu told Israel Hayom that the Israeli leader hasn’t given up on his goals and that ending the war isn’t under consideration. Israeli officials are discussing the idea of a deal previously put forward by US special envoy Steve Witkoff that would free some captives, followed by a return to military operations.Mahmoud Mardawi, a senior Hamas official, said on Sunday thatNetanyahu doesn’t want a deal because he is putting forward “impossible conditions” and is insisting on selecting the names of 10 Israeli hostages to be released instead of all of them.The report said that IDF Chief of Staff Eyal Zamir favors a temporary truce to allow the Israeli military to regroup for further operations. Several ministers in the cabinet are opposed to the idea because they fear that a temporary deal could become permanent.While Trump is calling for a deal, there’s no sign that he’s putting any pressure on Netanyahu to reach one, which he could do by leveraging US military aid since it’s required for the IDF to maintain operations in Gaza. Instead, Trump is strongly backing Netanyahu by demanding an end to his corruption trial and hinting that US military aid could be at risk if it continues.“The United States of America spends Billions of Dollar a year, far more than on any other Nation, protecting and supporting Israel. We are not going to stand for this,” Trump said in a post on Saturday. The president also claimed that Netanyahu was attempting to negotiate a Gaza ceasefire and hostage deal.
Trump Says US Discussed Idea of a 60-Day Gaza Ceasefire Deal With Israeli Officials - President Trump said in a post on Truth Social on Tuesday that his “representatives” met with Israeli officials and discussed the idea of a potential 60-day Gaza ceasefire deal, a proposal that Hamas is unlikely to accept without an upfront commitment to a permanent truce.The post came after Axios reported that US Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, and Vice President JD Vance were expected to meet with Ron Dermer, Israel’s minister of strategic affairs and close ally of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.“My Representatives had a long and productive meeting with the Israelis today on Gaza. Israel has agreed to the necessary conditions to finalize the 60 Day CEASEFIRE, during which time we will work with all parties to end the War,” Trump wrote on Truth Social.“The Qataris and Egyptians, who have worked very hard to help bring Peace, will deliver this final proposal. I hope, for the good of the Middle East, that Hamas takes this Deal, because it will not get better — IT WILL ONLY GET WORSE. Thank you for your attention to this matter!” he added. Trump is expected to discuss the idea of a Gaza deal with Netanyahu when the Israeli leader visits the White House this coming Monday. So far, there’s no sign that he’s willing to leverage US military aid to force a deal.According to the Axios report, Witkoff was set to brief Dermer on efforts to reach a 60-day truce during which Hamas would release 10 Israeli captives. Hamas’s long-standing offer has been that it will release all remaining hostages in exchange for a permanent ceasefire, but Israel has rejected the idea.A Hamas official said earlier this week that Netanyahu doesn’t want a deal because he is putting forward “impossible conditions” and is insisting on selecting the names of 10 Israeli hostages to be released instead of all of them. The Axios report said that the main impasse between the two sides is Hamas’s demand for a clear guarantee from the US that the deal would lead to a permanent end to the genocidal war.A senior Israeli official told Axios that Israel is willing to adjust some of the deal’s language to make it more acceptable to Hamas, but won’t agree to an upfront commitment to a permanent truce. The idea of the previous ceasefire deal that was signed in January was for the two sides to negotiate a permanent settlement during the first phase of the truce, but Israel never entered those talks and unilaterally ended the ceasefire.Israel has been escalating its assault on Gaza and is prepared to ramp things up even more. An Israeli official told Axios that Gaza would be turned into “dust” if the negotiations on a temporary truce don’t advance. “We’ll do to Gaza City and the central camps what we did to Rafah. Everything will turn to dust,” the official said.
Senior Trump official: Israel’s border agreements ‘are all illusions’ -- A senior Trump administration official described Israel’s modern borders as being drawn along “illusory” lines during wide-ranging remarks in which he also raised doubt about the survival of some Middle Eastern nation-states, blamed Europe for carving up the region over the past decade and offered praise for the Ottoman Empire. The official made the remarks during a background briefing discussing President Trump signing an executive order on Monday lifting sanctions on Syria, and the administration’s efforts to establish diplomatic ties between the new Syrian government and Israel. “The lines that were drawn at 1948 and 1926 and 1967 and 1974 are all illusions. [the lines were drawn] based on facts that were there at the time,” the senior official said, describing Trump’s diplomatic efforts to foster mutual trust in a region with frequent border clashes. The dates 1948, 1967 and 1974 all relate to wars Israel won, expanding its territory: its war of Independence, the Six-Day-War – in which it captured the Golan Heights from Syria – and the Yom Kippur War. The official was responding to a question critical of the administration recognizing Israeli control over territory it seized during conflict. Israeli officials have said it will not return the Golan Heights to Syria as part of any peace deal and has expanded its presence in Syria since the fall of ousted Syrian President Bashar Assad. Trump recognized Israeli sovereignty over the Golan Heights during his first term.
Trump dismantles decades of Syria sanctions -- President Trump on Monday signed an executive order dismantling a series of sanctions on Syria. The administration said it’s lifting the sanctions without conditions, but hopes the move to end Syria’s isolation in global financial markets will encourage the government headed by the U.S.-designated terrorist Ahmed al-Sharaa to fulfill a number of criteria related to countering terrorism, integrating the Syrian Kurdish forces, respect for minorities and establishing ties with Israel. “Neither the president nor the secretary of State are nation building, they’re not dictating,” Ambassador to the Republic of TĂĽrkiye and Special Envoy for Syria Tom Barrack said. “They’re not requiring, they’re not giving the framework of the democratic model that needs to be implemented to their architectural desire. They’re saying we’re going to give you an opportunity.” Trump announced during a speech in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, on May 13 that he was lifting sanctions on Syria and blasted “interventionists” and “neocons” as wrecking “far more nations than they built.” Trump’s executive order will begin to unravel decades of layered sanctions against Syria. The country was designated a State Sponsor of Terrorism in 1979, although the State Department did not immediately return a request for comment if that designation would be lifted. A fact sheet provided by the White House said that the Secretary of State will review Syria’s designation as a State Sponsor of Terrorism. The secretary will also review the sanctions designation of Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham as a Foreign Terrorist Organization — the group that overthrew Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad late last year. Sanctions will remain on Assad and officials sanctioned for human rights abuses, corruption, terrorism and other violations. “While we remain hopeful for the country’s future and its new government, we are also clear eyed that threats to peace remain,” Brad Smith, acting undersecretary of the Office of Terrorism and Financial Intelligence at the Department of the Treasury, said in a briefing with reporters previewing the president’s executive order. “The United States will remain ever vigilant where our interests and security are threatened, and Treasury will not hesitate to use our authorities to protect U.S. and international financial systems.”
Report: Israel-Syria Talks Propose US Troop Deployment To Territory Israel Captured in Southern Syria - Al-Monitor reported on Tuesday that talks between Israel and Syria have included discussions on the possibility of US troops deploying to areas of southwestern Syria that Israel captured following the regime change that ousted former Syrian President Bashar al-Assad.Immediately after Assad was overthrown in December 2024, Israel invaded southern Syria, capturing a buffer zone that was established in 1974 between the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights and the rest of Syria’s territory, including the Syrian side of Mount Hermon, and also took more territory in the Daraa and Quneitra Governorates.Sources told Al-Monitor that under a potential quasi-normalization/border deal, US troops could replace the Israeli presence on Mount Hermon, and Syrian government forces could be deployed to the buffer zone to prevent forces hostile to Israel from entering the areas.The report said that the discussions have not included anything about the side of the Golan Heights that Israel has occupied since 1967 and annexed in 1981, a move not recognized by any other country until the Trump administration did so in 2019.The US has been very friendly with the new Syrian government that’s led by Ahmed al-Sharaa, the founder of al-Qaeda in Syria, who rebranded in 2016 to gain international support. His group of jihadists, known as Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, led the offensive that ousted Assad, and he has become the country’s de facto president. President Trump recently signed an executive order lifting the majority of US sanctions on Syria. In exchange, the US is hoping for some sort of deal between Israel and Syria. According to Al-Monitor, Israel now views the 1974 disengagement agreement, which established the buffer zone along the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights, as obsolete. The US has been drawing down its number of troops in Syria, but it is planning to maintain a long-term military presence in the country. The US is expected to close its bases in northeastern Syria and keep fewer than 1,000 troops at its base at al-Tanf in the south, which is about 160 miles east of the Israeli-occupied areas of southwest Syria.
Lebanon Struggles to Navigate US, Israeli Demands to Disarm Hezbollah Before Peace Talks - Cursory reports in the press are suggesting that Lebanon might be on the verge of joining the Abraham Accords and normalizing relations with Israel. The Lebanese government isn’t explicitly denying it, but there seem to be some huge obstacles in the way.The first obvious obstacle is that since a ceasefire ending the Israeli invasion of Lebanon that began in November, Israel has launched thousands of strikes on Lebanese territory, and Israeli ground troops are still actively occupying five outposts across southern Lebanon, with officials insisting they have no intention of leaving.The Lebanese government is trying to tie a normalization to a withdrawal, even though the withdrawal was already meant to happen during the ceasefire, with multiple deadlines ignored.Yet even getting to a withdrawal for normalization deal is a challenge, with the US and Israel both demanding the Lebanese government unilaterally disarm Hezbollah fully before the talks can even advance to that stage.The ceasefire only counseled Hezbollah to be removed from the areas south of the Litani River, and while the government has talked to them about fully disarming, the actual deal seems like a non-starter while Israel is still actively occupying Lebanese soil, actively attacking Lebanese people, and refusing to even start discussions of stopping that until Lebanon gives them all they demand.The US, as expected, is pushing the Israeli position hard on this, with envoy Tom Barrack giving Lebanon a promise of normalization if they agree to what Israel wants. Lebanon is still discussing how to respond to this, though Hezbollah’s own position seems like it will make full capitulation for the promise difficult to deliver even if the government is so inclined.Reportedly Hezbollah would be open to disarming but only on condition of Israel ending the occupation and ending the constant strikes on Lebanese territory. One would think normalization would imply that, but the ceasefire was meant to require that from Israel as well and delivered neither.The US, moreover, was meant to be the overseer of the ceasefire, and has done nothing about Israel’s constant attacks. On top of that the US made multiple guarantees to Lebanon as to Israeli behavior during this ceasefire which simply didn’t materialize, so getting the US promise of being allowed to normalize relations with Israel carries little weight.All the conditions are theoretically there for a ceasefire, but Israeli hawks are unlikely to be willing to make even tiny concessions to enable the Lebanese government to deliver what they want, and the US seems perfectly happy to keep haranguing Lebanon for not delivering everything Israel wants.
Hezbollah Rejects US Demand to Disarm, Says It’s a Domestic Issue - Efforts to try to get Hezbollah to agree to disarm appear to have failed, with Hezbollah leader Naim Qassem announcing Wednesday evening that the group will not agree to give up its weapons, its land, or its right to resist.Lebanon’s government has been in talks with Hezbollah according to recent reports, built around a US proposal / demand to fully disarm Hezbollah and every other faction within Lebanon by November in return for talks with Israel about normalizing relations.It’s unclear the US could have delivered on this promise even if Hezbollah had agreed to disarm, since the proposals were effectively the same as came with last year’s ceasefire, which Israel never followed through on and which the US never called them to account over.Since Israel is actively occupying parts of southern Lebanon, launching airstrikes nearly daily, and launching ground raids against the south, it is unsurprising that Hezbollah isn’t willing to unilaterally disarm on the slim hope that Israel will actually reciprocate.Israel wasn’t even willing to engage in talks unless Hezbollah was disarmed first, and then it’s not clear that the normalization would necessarily end with either the withdrawal of Israeli troops or the end of Israeli airstrikes on Lebanese soil.
Mike Huckabee Suggests US B-2 Bombers Should 'Visit Yemen' After Houthis Fire Missile at Israel - US Ambassador to Israel Mike Huckabee suggested on Tuesday that US B-2 bombers should “visit Yemen” after Yemen’s Houthis, officially known as Ansar Allah, fired a missile at Israel, as the group has vowed to keep up attacks until Israel’s genocidal war on Gaza comes to an end.“We thought we were done with missiles coming to Israel, but Houthis just lit one up over us in Israel,” Huckabee wrote on X. “Fortunately, Israel’s incredible interception system means we go to the shelter & wait until all clear. Maybe those B-2 bombers need to visit Yemen!”The US conducted a heavy bombing campaign in Yemen from March 15 to May 6, which involved over 1,000 missile strikes and killed 258 civilians, and B-2 bombers were reportedly used in some of the strikes. Despite the US attacks, the Houthis were able to fire on US warships and launch missiles at Israel.President Trump eventually agreed to a ceasefire with the Houthis, which he framed as a victory, but the US essentially gave up on trying to stop Yemeni attacks on Israel. President Biden also failed to deter the Houthis during a years-long bombing campaign from January 2024 to January 2025, which he launched in defense of Israeli shipping.The Houthis also joined in on Iranian missile strikes during the 12-day US-Israeli war on Iran, saying it coordinated with Tehran in some of its attacks on Israel during that time. In response to Tuesday’s missile attack, Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz threatened that Israel would treat Yemen like Tehran, referring to Israel’s airstrikes on the Iranian capital city.“Yemen will be treated like Tehran. After striking the head of the snake in Tehran, we will also strike the Houthis in Yemen,” Katz said. “Whoever raises a hand against Israel — that hand will be cut off.” Israel has launched several rounds of airstrikes against Yemen since October 7, 2023.
The Empire Has Accidentally Caused The Rebirth Of Real Counterculture In The West - Caitlin Johnstone - For generations the ruling class has been successfully stomping out all politically relevant counterculture, first in the form of direct frontal assault by official government operations like COINTELPRO, and then by the way all major platforms and studios are owned by plutocrats who benefit from the imperial status quo and refuse to elevate anyone who might pose a threat to it.There have of course been countless artists in every generation who put on a rebellious face and give the finger to authority, but they’ve never presented any kind of threat to real power. Punk rockers who sing “fuck the man” but never advance any actual tangible causes. Satanic panic bands and shock rock superstars scaring church ladies and stirring culture wars. Bands voicing criticisms of the Iraq invasion but making it about supporting the Democratic Party. Celebrity musicians promoting social justice and equality without ever saying anything that might inconvenience the oligarchs and empire managers who rule our world.The rich and powerful don’t care if you dye your hair or pierce your nose or kiss a member of the same sex or say Hail Satan. They don’t care if you support one mainstream political faction over the other, or if you yell empty words about anarchy and revolution that aren’t pointed toward any real material goals. They care very much, however, if you are undermining public consent for military and geopolitical agendas they’ve worked very hard to propagandize the public into accepting.The establishment never dropped the hammer on Marilyn Manson. Lady Gaga never ran into trouble with the state for singing that gay people are Born This Way. Ozzy Osbourne is living in the lap of luxury with an estimated net worth of $220 million. But groups like Kneecap and Bob Vylan are being subjected topolice investigations and visa revocations for taking a stand on Palestine. Which, of course, is only going to make their position more popular among young people with a defiant streak in them.
Iran Says It Needs Time To Decide on Resuming Negotiations With the US -Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi has said that Tehran needs time to decide whether or not it will resume talks with the US following the 12-day US-Israeli war against Iran, which was launched under the cover of negotiations. President Trump had previously said that talks could resume as early as this week, a claim Tehran has denied. “I don’t think negotiations will restart as quickly as that,” Araghchi told CBS News. “In order for us to decide to reengage, we will have to first ensure that America will not revert back to targeting us in a military attack during the negotiations. And I think with all these considerations, we still need more time,” Araghchi added. Israel launched the war on June 13, two days before the US and Iran were scheduled to hold another round of talks. The US and Israel engaged in a deception campaign to make it seem like an attack wouldn’t happen as long as negotiations were being held. Aragchi didn’t rule out resuming negotiations with the US in the future, saying the “doors of diplomacy will never slam shut.” He also said Iran could swiftly resume its nuclear enrichment program if there is “a will” to do so in Iran, despite the US bombing of three of its nuclear facilities. “One cannot obliterate the technology and science for enrichment through bombings. If there is this will on our part, and the will exists in order to once again make progress in this industry, we will be able to expeditiously repair the damages and make up for the lost time,” Araghchi said. When asked if Iran would resume enrichment, he said the country’s “peaceful nuclear program has turned into a matter of national pride and glory. We have also gone through 12 days of imposed war, therefore, people will not easily back down from enrichment.” President Trump has threatened to bomb Iran if it does resume uranium enrichment, but doesn’t believe that will happen, as he has claimed the US airstrikes “obliterated” Iranian nuclear facilities, setting the program back by decades. Before Israel launched the war on Iran, both US intelligence and the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) had no evidence that Tehran was seeking a nuclear weapon. Iran had also made clear that it was willing to reduce its uranium enrichment levels as part of a deal with the US.
Trump Says He's Not Offering Iran 'Anything' - President Trump said in an early morning Truth Social post that he was not offering “anything” to Iran, a response to comments from Sen. Chris Coons (D-DE), who suggested the president was seeking an arrangement similar to the 2015 Iran nuclear deal, known as the JCPOA.“Tell phony Democrat Senator Chris Coons that I am not offering Iran ANYTHING, unlike Obama, who paid them $Billions under the stupid ‘road to a Nuclear Weapon JCPOA (which would now be expired!), nor am I even talking to them since we totally OBLITERATED their Nuclear Facilities,” the president said.Coons made the comments in an appearance on Fox News on Sunday, where he cited a report from CNN that said the Trump administration was considering a deal with Iran that would give it access to billions to rebuild its civilian nuclear program under the condition that it wouldn’t enrich uranium. The report said the US would also provide sanctions relief under a potential deal.Trump had already strongly denied the claims made in the CNN report. “Who in the Fake News Media is the SleazeBag saying that ‘President Trump wants to give Iran $30 Billion to build non-military Nuclear facilities,'” he wrote on Truth Social on Friday.“Never heard of this ridiculous idea. It’s just another HOAX put out by the Fake News in order to demean. These people are SICK!!!” Trump added.The president has also strongly denied reports that say the US airstrikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities set back Iran’s nuclear program by only a few months, insisting that the sites have been “obliterated.” He has also threatened to bomb Iran if it resumes enriching uranium, something the head of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) believes could happen within a few months if Tehran chooses to pursue it.
Iran's President Signs Law Suspending Cooperation With IAEA in Response to US-Israeli Airstrikes - Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian has signed a law suspending Tehran’s cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), a step taken in response to the 12-day US-Israeli war against Iran, which involved US airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities. Under the law, which was approved by Iran’s parliament on June 25, Iran will not allow IAEA inspectors into the country unless the security of its nuclear facilities and its right to peaceful nuclear activities are guaranteed, which is subject to the discretion of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council.Iran’s PressTV also cited the “politically motivated” resolution that was passed by the IAEA’s Board of Governors a day before Israel launched its initial attacks on Iran as a reason for suspending cooperation with the nuclear watchdog. The resolution claimed that Iran wasn’t living up to its commitments under the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), and it was mainly based on alleged nuclear activity from over 20 years ago, which posed no risk of proliferation.PressTV said that the resolution was used as an “excuse” for Israel to launch the war. Both the US and the IAEA had no proof that Iran was working toward a nuclear weapon before Israel launched the war. Iran has also alleged that Israel obtained the names of Iranian nuclear scientists it has killed from the IAEA, and has been critical of the watchdog for remaining silent on Israel’s secret nuclear weapons program. Israel is estimated to have somewhere between 90 and 300 nuclear weapons, and its nuclear arsenal gets very little attention since neither the US nor Israel acknowledges its existence.Before the US-Israeli war on Iran, Tehran made clear that there would be consequences related to the oversight of its nuclear program if its nuclear facilities were attacked.Since the US pulled out of the Obama-era Iran nuclear deal, known as the JCPOA, Tehran has increased the activity of its civilian nuclear program in response to US and Israeli pressure. The US withdrew from the agreement in 2018, and after over a year, Tehran began slowly increasing its uranium enrichment levels beyond the 3.67% limit set by the deal.Iran initially brought its uranium enrichment to 4.5% but raised it to 20% in 2021 following the Israeli assassination of Iranian nuclear scientist Mohsen Fakhrizadeh. Later that year, Iran began enriching some uranium at 60% in response to an Israeli covert attack on its Natanz nuclear facility. Hawks point to the 60% enrichment to claim that Iran was racing toward a bomb since it’s a step away from enriching at 90%, which is needed for weapons-grade uranium. But Iran made clear that it was willing to reduce enrichment levels back down to 3.67% as part of a deal with the US that includes sanctions relief.Now, it’s unclear if negotiations between the US and Iran will resume, as the recent talks were used as a cover to keep Iran off guard before Israel launched its bombing campaign. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi has said that Tehran needs time to decide whether it will engage in more negotiations with the US.
US targets Iran oil trade, Hezbollah with new sanctions - The State Department announced Wednesday it would target entities and individuals connected to Iran and Hezbollah with new sanctions.Six entities and four vessels associated with Iran were sanctioned for knowingly engaging in a significant transaction related to the purchase, acquisition, sale, transport, or marketing of petroleum, petroleum products, or petrochemical products from Iran. A network of companies is run by Iraqi businessman Salim Ahmed Said, according to State Department spokesperson Tammy Bruce.“Concurrently, the Department of the Treasury is designating oil smuggling networks that have collectively transported and purchased billions of dollars’ worth of Iranian oil,” Bruce said in a Wednesday statement.“Treasury is also sanctioning several shadow fleet vessels engaged in the covert delivery of Iranian oil.”Several additional companies and three shadow fleets linked to Iranian oil trades will also face new sanctions. Kaveh Methanol Company, Aria International, Asian Sea Angel Shipping Company, Sai Saburi Consulting Services, Breeze Marine Asset Management and Isle Innovation will be subject to penalties outlined in a separate Wednesday release.
US Imposes More Sanctions on Iran, the First Round Since 12-Day War Ceasefire - The Trump administration on Thursday announced its first round of new sanctions on Iran since the ceasefire that ended the 12-day US-Israeli war on the country, signaling the so-called “maximum pressure campaign” against Tehran will continue.The US Treasury Department said it targeted an Iraqi businessman and a “network” of companies he runs over allegations that they’re involved in purchasing Iranian oil.“Treasury will continue to target Tehran’s revenue sources and intensify economic pressure to disrupt the regime’s access to the financial resources that fuel its destabilizing activities,” said Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent.Axios reported on Thursday that US Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff is planning to meet Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi in Oslo next week to restart nuclear negotiations, but the talks haven’t been confirmed by either side, and Iranian officials say they need guarantees from the US that they won’t be attacked again.“How can we trust the Americans?” Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Majid Takht-Ravanchi told NBC News in an interview published Thursday. “We want them to explain as to why they misled us, why they took such an egregious action against our people.”Takht-Ravanchi said that Iran is in favor of dialogue and diplomacy but that the US needs “to convince us that they are not going to use military force while we are negotiating.”The Iranian diplomat also said that Tehran would continue to enrich uranium as part of its civilian nuclear program, but it remains unclear how long it would take Iran to restart the program after the US and Israeli airstrikes on its nuclear facilities. President Trump has vowed he will bomb Iran again if it resumes uranium enrichment, though he is insisting that Iran won’t restart its program.
US Launches Its 44th Airstrike in Somalia This Year - US Africa Command announced on Tuesday that its forces launched another airstrike in Somalia as the Trump administration continues to bomb the country at a record pace.AFRICOM said the strike targeted the ISIS affiliate in northeastern Somalia’s Puntland region, where the US is backing local forces. The command offered no details on the strike other than saying that it was launched to the southeast of Bossaso, a port city in Puntland.“Specific details about units and assets will not be released to ensure continued operations security,” AFRICOM said. Starting in April, the command stopped sharing details about casualties or assessments of civilian harm.Based on AFRICOM’s count, the bombing brings the total number of US airstrikes in Somalia this year to 44. New America, an organization that tracks the air war, has counted 45 airstrikes, which include one strike that was reported on but not claimed by AFRICOM.The Trump administration is well on its way to breaking the record for the total number of US airstrikes in Somalia in a single year, which President Trump set at 63 in 2019.US airstrikes in Puntland could escalate in the coming days and weeks as local Puntland forces announced a new operation against ISIS on Monday.The US has also been supporting the Mogadishu-based Federal Government in its fight against al-Shabaab in southern and central Somalia.Somali media reported on Monday that there were fierce clashes in Jubaland, southern Somalia, between al-Shabaab and the Danab, a special US-trained and armed military unit, resulting in the death of at least seven al-Shabaab fighters. It’s unclear at this point if the US supported the Danab with airstrikes in the battle, and AFRICOM usually doesn’t announce airstrikes until a few days after they’re launched.
US Launches Series of Airstrikes During Major Battle Between US-Backed Force and Al-Shabaab in Somalia - US Africa Command said in a press release on Thursday that its forces launched multiple airstrikes in southern Somalia between June 27 and June 30, a time when Somali media reported major battles between a US-backed force and al-Shabaab.It’s unclear how many strikes AFRICOM launched during the battle, but it means the US has now launched more than 45 in the country this year and is well on its way to breaking the annual record, which President Trump set at 63 during his first term in 2019. Besides its air war against al-Shabaab in southern and central Somalia, the US has also been launching airstrikes against an ISIS affiliate in the northeastern Puntland region.AFRICOM didn’t offer any details about the latest strikes other than saying they were launched against al-Shabaab west of the city of Kismayo, in the vicinity of the village of Buulo Xaaji, which is located in Somalia’s Jubaland region. “Specific details about units and assets will not be released to ensure continued operations security,” the command said.Since April, AFRICOM has stopped sharing estimates of casualties and assessments of civilian harm. According to Somali media, the Danab, a US-trained special operations force, launched an offensive against al-Shabaab near the village of Buulo Xaaji, and the Somali Defense Ministry said in a statement on June 30 that its forces killed more than 50 al-Shabaab fighters in the area over the previous five days.
Gabbard accuses Washington Post reporter of 'political op' --Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard criticized a Washington Post reporter on Thursday over the journalist’s reporting, calling her “a clear political op.” Post reporter Ellen Nakashima “appears to be actively harassing ODNI staff,” Gabbard wrote Thursday on social media, referring to the Office of the Director of National Intelligence. “Instead of reaching out to my press office, she is calling high level Intelligence Officers from a burner phone, refusing to identify herself, lying about the fact that she works for the Washington Post, and then demanding they share sensitive information,” Gabbard said. “Apparently, publishing leaked classified material wasn’t enough for the Washington Post, so now they’ve decided to go after the Intelligence professionals charged to protect it,” she added. Nakashima has an extensive history of reporting on matters of national security and is a member of three Pulitzer-prize-winning teams at the Post. In a statement responding to Gabbard, Post executive editor Matt Murray defended Nakashima’s work. “For three decades, Ellen Nakashima has been one of the most careful, fair-minded, and highly regarded reporters covering national security,” Murray said. “Reaching out to potential sources rather than relying solely on official government press statements regarding matters of public interest is neither nefarious nor is it harassment. It is basic journalism.”
Trump says he found a TikTok buyer -- resident Trump said in a Sunday interview that he has found a buyer for TikTok, the popular video-sharing app Congress voted to ban if its China-based parent company, ByteDance, did not divest from the platform. “We have a buyer for TikTok, by the way,” Trump said in an interview on Fox News’s “Sunday Morning Futures” with Maria Bartiromo. “I think I’ll need probably China approval, and I think President Xi will probably do it,” he added, referring to China President Xi Jinping. Asked whom the buyer is, Trump said, “I’ll tell you in about two weeks.” The president added that the buyers are “very, very wealthy people.” “It’s a group of very wealthy people.” The law requiring ByteDance to divest from the platform or face a ban on U.S. networks and app stores was signed by former President Biden last year.
Trump suggests there won’t be a trade deal with Japan - President Trump suggested Monday there won’t be a trade deal with Japan, sharing that the trading partner will be getting a letter from the administration to set a tariff rate. “To show people how spoiled Countries have become with respect to the United States of America, and I have great respect for Japan, they won’t take our RICE, and yet they have a massive rice shortage,” Trump said on Truth Social, referring to Japan’s rice crisis that has elevated prices. The president continued, “In other words, we’ll just be sending them a letter, and we love having them as a Trading Partner for many years to come.” Trump has said he will send letters to trading partners to establish tariff rates ahead of the July 8 expiration on the pause on his hefty “reciprocal” tariffs. Officials, though, have insisted for months that talks are progressing with trading partners, including with Japan, as well as with India and Vietnam. The White House and Treasury Department did not immediately respond to a request for comment on the president’s comments on Japan. The administration has been working on trade deals during the 90-day pause, but only agreements with China and the United Kingdom have been announced, despite the self-imposed ambitious goal of 90 deals in 90 days.
Trump Announces Trade Deal With Vietnam; Includes 20% Tariffs, 40% Tax On Transshipping -With just one week left until the July 9 trade deal deadline, which some suspect could have a similar adverse impact on markets as the first Liberation Day - even if stocks are completely oblivious to the risk - moments ago Trump gave a stark reminder just how high the trade stakes are when he announced that the US has made a trade deal with Vietnam. According to the terms, Vietnam will pay the United States:
- 20% Tariff on any and all goods sent into our Territory,
- 40% Tariff on any Transshipping, which is squarely aimed at China which uses Vietnam as a reshipment/tolling hub.
Of the two, one can argue that the transshipment clause is more important because in recent weeks China had threatened that any country that makes a deal with the US at its expense would make it very angry. Which means that Xi is now terribly vexed. In any case, in return for the tariffs, Trump said that "Vietnam will do something that they have never done before, give the United States of America TOTAL ACCESS to their Markets for Trade. In other words, they will “OPEN THEIR MARKET TO THE UNITED STATES,” meaning that, we will be able to sell our product into Vietnam at ZERO Tariff." Which is hardly a big deal, since the US barely exports to Vietnam.
China knocks US-Vietnam trade deal ---China knocked the newly announced U.S. trade deal with Vietnam, saying Beijing “firmly opposes” any deal that disadvantages its economy and pledged to take “countermeasures” to protect its own interests.The trade deal with Vietnam, which President Trump announced on Wednesday, sets the tariff rate on the country at 20 percent, with Vietnam giving the U.S. tariff-free access to its markets. It also seeks to prevent third countries like China from laundering their exports through Vietnam, imposing a 40 percent tariff on goods that originate from a country with a higher import tax rate and shipped through Vietnam.“China firmly opposes any deal made at the expense of China’s interests in exchange for so-called tariff exemptions,” a spokesperson for the Chinese Ministry of Commerce said, when asked about U.S. tariff negotiations “with certain countries.”“Should such a situation arise, China will never accept it and will take resolute countermeasures to safeguard its legitimate rights and interests,” the spokesperson continuedThe spokesperson said China “welcomes efforts” by other countries to “resolve” trade issues with the U.S. “through consultations on the basis of equality.”“At the same time,” the spokesperson continued, “we urge all parties to stand on the side of fairness and justice and on the right side of history in resolutely upholding international trade rules and the multilateral trading system.” The president announced the deal with Vietnam on Truth Social, days before the pause on his sweeping county-specific tariffs is set to expire. The only other country to reach a comprehensive trade deal since Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs were announced in April is the United Kingdom.
Trump: US will send tariff letters to countries starting this week -- - President Trump said Thursday his administration would begin sending letters out to other countries this week informing them of tariff rates they would have to pay to do business in the United States, downplaying his desire to strike dozens of individual trade deals. “My inclination is to send a letter out and say what tariff they’re gonna be paying. It’s just much easier,” Trump told reporters as he departed for Iowa. “We have far more than 170 countries, and how many deals can you make? And you can make good deals, but they’re very much more complicated.” “I’d rather send out a letter saying this is what you’re going to pay to do business in the United States,” Trump continued. “And I think it will be well received.” The president said the letters would begin going out Friday to roughly 10 countries per day. Trump threw out 20 percent, 25 percent and 30 percent as potential tariff rates, but it was not clear if those would be the numbers applied to other nations. The president’s announcement comes ahead of a July 9 deadline imposed by the White House to broker trade agreements with other countries after the president had paused “reciprocal” tariffs on dozens of other nations. The pause was intended to give room for negotiations, and White House officials had for weeks touted progress on talks with various countries. Ultimately, the U.S. struck an agreement with the United Kingdom and Vietnam and agreed on a framework for a deal with China.
Trump tariffs would cost US employers $82.3B: Analysis --Midsize U.S. businesses could face a $82.3 billion to $187.7 billion hit if President Trump sticks to his sweeping tariff plans — creating the potential for price hikes, layoffs and hiring freezes for many employers, according to a new analysis.The JPMorganChase Institute released two reports Wednesday on the impact Trump’s import taxes will have on companies with $10 million to $1 billion in annual revenue — a category that covers about a third of the nation’s private-sector workforce.“Midsize firms are an important and often overlooked segment of the economy,” the institute’s researchers wrote in a release on the findings in the companion reports. “Together, these reports offer a clearer picture of how recent tariff changes are affecting midsize firms across industries and regions in the U.S.”Trump launched his massive “Liberation Day” tariff overhaul on April 2, but his administration agreed to temporarily pause the hikes on most countries. The moratorium delaying the “reciprocal” tariffs is set to expire next week.“The tariff rates that have been announced so far have varied widely from one country to the next, and we have seen that policy can shift quickly,” the JPMorganChase Institute’s researchers noted. “Vulnerable midsize firms may need to adapt their business models, which could affect their customers, other businesses and their regional economies.”“If they struggle, it may cause ripple effects for other businesses and their communities,” they added. White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said last week that the July 8 deadline is “not critical” and could be extended. Still, the institute analyzed the impact under scenarios based on hikes the president previously outlined, possible negotiated levels with major trade partners and the retaliatory tariffs other countries have proposed.The Trump administration agreed to a 55-percent tariff rate on Chinese imports in a trade truce struck in May after several rate hikes.“Since midsize firms have an outsize reliance on Chinese goods, making up 20.9 percent of their total 2022 goods imports, a rate of 55 percent still leads to substantial costs for some segments of the middle market,” the researchers noted.When analyzing under a hypothetical 10-percent universal import tax and higher rates of 55 percent on China and 25 percent on Mexico and Canada, the institute concluded businesses would face an $82.3 billion — or $2,080 per middle market employee — cost increase from tariffs.“This represents about 3.1 percent of the average annual payroll of a U.S. midsize firm,” they wrote.Under an analysis of all tariffs rising to Trump’s full “Liberation Day” levels, the researchers found total direct tariff costs to midsize firms would grow more than sixfold to $187.7 billion, or $4,740 per employee.“An annual tariff cost of $4,740 per employee means that midsize firms would, on average, face additional costs of over 7 percent of their payroll,” they wrote.
USAID defunding could lead to 14 million deaths worldwide from infectious diseases by 2030 - Continued US defunding of the US Agency for International Development (USAID) foreign-aid program could result in more than 14 million excess deaths—including 4.5 million preschool children—from preventable infectious diseases in the next 5 years, threatening over 20 years of progress, an international group of researchers warned yesterday in The Lancet. "For many LMICs [low- and middle-income countries], the resulting shock would be similar in scale to a global pandemic or a major armed conflict," the researchers wrote. "Unlike those events, however, this crisis would stem from a conscious and avoidable policy choice—one whose burden would fall disproportionately on children and younger populations, and whose consequences could reverberate for decades."Scientists in Brazil, Spain, Mozambique, and the United States analyzed data from 133 countries and territories—including all LMICs—receiving no to very high USAID support. The team modeled demographic, socioeconomic, and healthcare data to estimate the impact of USAID funding on all-age and all-cause deaths from 2001 to 2021, as well as effects by age-, sex, and cause-specific groups. Last, they used microsimulation models to estimate the effects up to 2030.Higher USAID funding levels—mainly for LMICs in Africa—were tied to a 15% reduction in age-standardized, all-cause deaths (risk ratio [RR], 0.85) and a 32% cut in deaths among children younger than 5 years (RR, 0.68). This indicates that USAID financing prevented 91.8 million all-age deaths, including 30.4 million preschool children, from 2001 to 2021, the authors said.The financial support was linked to a 65% reduction in deaths from HIV/AIDS (representing 25.5 million deaths) and reductions of 51% and 50% from malaria (8.0 million) and neglected tropical diseases (8.9 million), respectively.Significant declines were also seen in deaths from tuberculosis, malnutrition, diarrheal illnesses, lower respiratory-tract infections, and maternal and perinatal conditions. Models predicted that continued USAID funding cuts could lead to more than 14.1 million excess all-age deaths, including 4.5 million in children younger than age 5, by 2030.
20 States Sue Trump Admin Over Release Of Private Medicaid Data To Homeland Security A coalition of 20 state attorneys general filed a lawsuit against the Trump administration on July 1, challenging its decision to hand over the personal data of some Medicaid enrollees to the Department of Homeland Security (DHS), which oversees Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE).The complaint, led by California Attorney General Rob Bonta, was filed in the District Court for the Northern District of California and alleges that the mass transfer of data violates federal health privacy protection laws, including the Health Insurance Portability and Accountability Act (HIPAA), as well as the Federal Information Security Modernization Act and the Privacy Act.The attorneys general are asking the court to find that the administration’s transfer of Medicaid data was unauthorized and illegal under federal law, including the Administrative Procedure Act. They are seeking to block the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) from making further transfers of such data to the DHS, the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), or any other federal agency.The attorneys general also asked the court to prevent any federal agency from using Medicaid data for immigration enforcement, population surveillance, or similar purposes, and to order the destruction of any data that has already been transferred.“The Trump Administration has upended longstanding privacy protections with its decision to illegally share sensitive, personal health data with ICE. In doing so, it has created a culture of fear that will lead to fewer people seeking vital emergency medical care,” Bonta said in a July 1 statement.“We’re headed to court to prevent any further sharing of Medicaid data—and to ensure any of the data that’s already been shared is not used for immigration enforcement purposes.”As of January 2025, 78.4 million people were enrolled in Medicaid and the Children’s Health Insurance Program (CHIP) across the United States, according to the lawsuit.The complaint notes that a certain amount of personal data is routinely exchanged between the states and the federal government for the purpose of verifying eligibility for Medicaid.
Joe Rogan calls Donald Trump's ICE raids 'insane' --Podcaster Joe Rogan continued to knock the Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) workplace raids that have become a hallmark of the Trump administration’s aggressive immigration crackdown, calling the effort “insane” on Tuesday’s episode of his show.“It’s insane,” Rogan, who endorsed President Trump in his reelection bid last fall, said on “The Joe Rogan Experience.” “Not cartel members, not gang members, not drug dealers — just construction workers.”“Showing up on construction sites, raiding them,” he continued, shaking his head. “Gardeners. Like, really?”Rogan previously blasted the ICE raids last month, calling them “f—ing nuts.”Trump campaigned on more aggressive immigration enforcement, but he has faced some backlash over the raids targeting migrant workers. Mass protests broke out in Los Angeles last month as word spread that ICE was conducting raids in California, and Trump sent thousands of National Guard members and Marines to protect federal workers and property during the demonstrations. The Trump administration briefly paused workplace raids at hotels, restaurants and farms in mid-June, but ICE agents were told to return to targeting those sites June 17 to meet the White House’s ambitious goal of 3,000 migrant arrests per day. The administration has repeatedly defended arresting and deporting migrants without legal status.“Worksite enforcement remains a cornerstone of our efforts to safeguard public safety, national security and economic stability,” Homeland Security Department spokesperson Tammy Bruce said in a statement as the raids resumed. “These operations target illegal employment networks that undermine American workers, destabilize labor markets and expose critical infrastructure to exploitation,” she continued.
DHS Head: Cannibal Illegal Tried To Eat Himself On Deportation Flight --Department of Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem related a bizarre event to the media during the press conference for the new “Alligator Alcatraz” deportee holding facility, telling reporters that an illegal alien, suspected to be a cannibal, attempted to eat himself during a recent deportation flight.Noem claimed that US Marshals deputies reported to her that the flight had to be halted before take off as the man caused serious self harm and had to receive immediate medical treatment. “They said that they had detained a cannibal and put him on a plane to take him home. And while they had him in his seat, he started to eat himself, and they had to get him off and get him medical attention,” Noem said during the briefing with President Trump and Florida Governor Ron DeSantis.🚨 WTF?! Kristi Noem just revealed one of the illegals they arrested was a cannibal who began to EAT HIMSELF on a deportation flightTHIS is why we need mass roundups. These people are ANIMALS. pic.twitter.com/q77LNBIIjp“These are the kind of deranged individuals that are on our streets in America that we’re trying to target and get out of our country because they are so deranged they don’t belong here,” the DHS secretary further urged. “They shouldn’t be walking the streets with our children, and they shouldn’t be living in the communities with our families who just want to… raise their children to grow up and get a job, and to live the American dream,” she added.Noem suggested that the new “Alligator Alcatraz” facility should be replicated in other states around the country.“I hope my phone rings off the hook from governors calling and saying, ‘How can we do what Florida just did? How can we do exactly what they did?’” she emphasised.
Noem signs waivers for 17 miles of waterborne barriers in Rio Grande-- Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem signed a waiver allowing 17 miles of “waterborne barrier” to be constructed quicker in Texas as part of a broader effort to erect President Trump’s border wall. “A capability gap has been identified in waterways along the Southwest border where drug smuggling, human trafficking and other dangerous and illegal activity occurs. In response to this gap, CBP has identified the requirement for the construction of waterborne barriers to support the border security mission in waterways,” U.S. Customs and Border Protection wrote in a release. “In addition, waterborne barriers are intended to create a safer border environment for patrolling agents, as well as deter illegal aliens from attempting to illegally cross the border through dangerous waterways.” The waiver from Noem allows the government to bypass the National Environmental Policy Act, which requires stringent environmental reviews before beginning construction. The barriers will be placed in the Rio Grande, the same river where the state of Texas placed buoys to deter migrants from crossing the U.S.-Mexico border. That ignited a lawsuit from the Biden administration, which said the buoys interfered with federal immigration enforcement and also created a drowning risk for migrants. Republicans’ One Big Beautiful Bill Act also sets aside funding for further construction of Trump’s border wall.
ICE agents filmed urinating on California school grounds – School surveillance cameras captured nearly a dozen U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) agents urinating on storage containers near a playground after trespassing on the California school’s property, officials in Pico Rivera said in a letter to the Department of Homeland Security (DHS). The incident, according to members of the El Rancho Unified School District (ERUSD), occurred on June 17 after an estimated 10 marked and unmarked vehicles carrying agents entered and parked on the campus of Ruben Salazar High School. School staff informed the federal agents that they did not have permission to enter or stay on campus grounds and asked them to leave. Officials with the El Rancho Unified School District detailed the incident in a letter sent to DHS Secretary Kristi Noem. (ERUSD) “Please note that at no time was a legal or legitimate reason offered or provided as to why the ICE agents entered and remained on school grounds, nor did they provide any judicial warrant(s),” states the letter, addressed to Homeland Security Secretary Krist Noem. After the federal officers complied and left, school officials issued an alert informing the community of the agents’ brief presence on the campus. “Immediately after the incident, ERUSD staff advised ERUSD executive management that they observed ICE agents urinating at Salazar in public view,” the letter continues. A review of the school’s surveillance cameras appears to back up the claim, with agents seen on the footage walking back and forth between several different storage containers and, presumably, their vehicles. School officials noted in the letter that somewhere around 10 agents relieved themselves in broad daylight on the district’s property between 8:54 a.m. and 9:04 a.m. local time.
Interior reorganization will shift nearly 5,700 employees -Interior Secretary Doug Burgum’s office will absorb nearly 5,700 employees from various agencies under a reorganization plan, according to an internal document detailing the shift.The National Parks Conservation Association (NPCA) obtained the list of the employees who are being reassigned to the secretary’s office from their individual agencies overseen by the Interior Department, which the group shared with POLITICO’s E&E News. The employees work in specific specialties, such as communications and information technology.The document — which provides the employees’ emails, duty locations, job areas and other information — shows Interior moving staffers from the Bureau of Land Management, Bureau of Ocean Energy Management, Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement, Fish and Wildlife Service, Interior Business Center, National Park Service, Office of Surface Mining Reclamation and Enforcement, Bureau of Reclamation, U.S. Geological Survey, and Office of the Solicitor.Interior spokesperson Alyse Sharpe declined to respond to questions about the reorganization effort, citing the department’s policy on not commenting on personnel issues.
RFK’s New Vaccine Committee Has Voted—Now What? Debriefing and looking ahead with Dr. Katelyn Jetelina and Dr. Jeremy Faust.- A recording from Jeremy Faust, MD's live video Closed captions (㏄) and a transcript option can be found beneath the video playback control bar above. (Note: this session is free for everyone, thanks to recent upgrades that make this all possible. If you’d like to support this work, click here.) -- Jeremy Faust, MD and Katelyn Jetelina - Along with several colleagues, I watched large portions of this week’s CDC’s Advisory Committee on Immunization Practice (ACIP) so that you didn’t have to. Dr. Katelyn Jetelina and I debriefed afterwards. Our conversation is above. Some adjectives came to mind while watching the meeting: Surreal. Embarrassing. Kafkaesque. In place of seventeen highly respected voting members, all fired by HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy, were seven new characters whose opinions ranged from unhinged (several of the members) to reasonable (mainly voiced by Dr. Cody Meissner).Various members asked questions that revealed incomplete understandings of the legal process around these votes. One member wasn’t sure whether or not she had a conflict of interest. Random conspiracy theories got air time, while vetted scientific materials created by CDC scientists were literally removed from the meeting’s website, after having been posted earlier in the week. Indeed, we learned during the meeting that the CDC’s briefing document on the safety of thimerosal in vaccines was removed because Secretary Kennedy’s office (i.e., RFK Jr. himself) did not approve of it. That of course means that the error-ridden, cherry-picked data in another presentation on the topic by an outside speaker (a longtime RFK Jr. ally) was approved. It was a dystopian nightmare.
DOJ announces takedown of record $14.6B in health care fraud - The Justice Department announced criminal charges Monday against more than 300 individuals over their alleged involvement in more than $14.6 billion worth of health care fraud schemes. According to the Department of Justice (DOJ), its 2025 National Health Care Fraud Takedown resulted in criminal charges against 324 defendants across 50 federal districts. These defendants include 96 doctors, nurse practitioners, pharmacists and other licensed medical professionals. The individuals were allegedly involved in health care fraud schemes totaling $14.6 billion in intended loss, with the government seizing more than $245 million in “cash, luxury vehicles, cryptocurrency, and other assets.” An additional $4 billion in false and fraudulent claims was stopped by the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services as part of the DOJ’s takedown. Civil settlements with 106 defendants totaling $34.3 million were also announced as part of the operation. “We view the theft of public funds the same way. It’s a crime against all of us. Today, in conjunction with the DOJ and our federal partners, we are announcing the results from the largest healthcare fraud investigation, as measured by financial losses, in DOJ history,” FBI Deputy Director Dan Bongino said in a statement on social platform X. “Results matter. Talk is cheap. And this is not even the beginning of the beginning. If you’re stealing from the public, or violating your oath to serve, then we’re coming for you too,” Bongino said.
Trump plan to cut disaster aid could harm local economic growth - President Donald Trump’s plan to cut federal disaster aid could endanger economic growth in hard-hit communities by delaying or preventing their recovery, a recent report by a leading global analytics firm says. S&P Global Ratings, whose reports are targeted at investors and financial markets, warned of significant financial consequences if Trump shifts the costs of disaster recovery from the federal government to states, counties and municipalities. Trump’s plan “could have both near- and long-term effects on state and local government credit, including on financial performance, reserves and liquidity, economic growth, and debt and liabilities,” S&P said.“We could see material credit weakening in the absence of federal support for disaster recovery,” the report added, referring to states and localities that could have their credit ratings lowered due to new financial instability.
Major reports about how climate change affects the US are removed from websites -Legally mandated U.S. national climate assessments seem to have disappeared from the federal websites built to display them, making it harder for state and local governments and the public to learn what to expect in their backyards from a warming world. Scientists said the peer-reviewed authoritative reports save money and lives. Websites for the national assessments and the U.S. Global Change Research Program were down Monday and Tuesday with no links, notes or referrals elsewhere. The White House, which was responsible for the assessments, said the information will be housed within NASA to comply with the law, but gave no further details. Searches for the assessments on NASA websites did not turn them up. NASA did not respond to requests for information. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, which coordinated the information in the assessments, did not respond to repeated inquiries. "It's critical for decision makers across the country to know what the science in the National Climate Assessment is. That is the most reliable and well-reviewed source of information about climate that exists for the United States," said University of Arizona climate scientist Kathy Jacobs, who coordinated the 2014 version of the report. "It's a sad day for the United States if it is true that the National Climate Assessment is no longer available," Jacobs said. "This is evidence of serious tampering with the facts and with people's access to information, and it actually may increase the risk of people being harmed by climate-related impacts."
EPA employees accuse Trump administration of 'ignoring' science As an example, the letter cited official communications that likened "climate science to a religion." Zeldin has repeatedly stated that he sees the EPA's role as supporting US economic growth, and under his guidance the agency has set in motion a full-scale reversal of several environmental standards and greenhouse gas regulations. Unveiling a set of policy initiatives in March, Zeldin hailed the move as "the greatest day of deregulation our nation has seen." "We are driving a dagger straight into the heart of the climate change religion to drive down cost of living for American families, unleash American energy, bring auto jobs back to the US and more," said the administrator of the federal agency charged with protecting the environment. The letter came weeks after the publication of a similar text signed by dozens of employees of the National Institutes of Health over the Trump administration's "harmful" policies.
EPA places staffers who signed ‘dissent’ letter on leave -The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) is placing staffers who signed a letter of dissent against the Trump administration’s actions and policies on leave.The EPA says it has placed 144 staffers on administrative leave as it investigates the letter. It’s not entirely clear whether they will face further punishment after the probe.“The Environmental Protection Agency has a zero-tolerance policy for career bureaucrats unlawfully undermining, sabotaging, and undercutting the administration’s agenda as voted for by the great people of this country last November,” EPA spokesperson Brigit Hirsch said in a written statement. In a letter made public on Monday, current and former EPA staffers said that the administration’s policies “undermine the EPA mission of protecting human health and the environment.”They expressed concerns about five issues in particular, saying that the administration is undermining public trust, ignoring scientific consensus to benefit polluters, reversing EPA’s progress in America’s most vulnerable communities, dismantling the Office of Research and Development and promoting a culture of fear.“Your decisions and actions will reverberate for generations to come. EPA under your leadership will not protect communities from hazardous chemicals and unsafe drinking water, but instead will increase risks to public health and safety,” the staffers wrote to Administrator Lee Zeldin.Nicole Cantello, president of the American Federation of Government Employees (AFGE) Local 704, which represents EPA employees in the Midwest, told The Hill that putting staffers on administrative leave was ” blatant retaliation by the Trump administration.”
Kavanaugh objects as Supreme Court turns away California pig welfare law challenge--The Supreme Court on Monday turned away a second bite at the apple to review California’s law requiring pork sold in the state to come from pigs raised with sufficient living space. Justice Brett Kavanaugh indicated he would’ve taken up the case, but neither he nor the majority explained their reasoning, as is typical. Two years ago, the court upheld the law in response to a challenge from national pork and farmers groups. But those groups conceded certain legal arguments, and the Iowa Pork Producers Association hoped to pick up the mantle. Passed by California voters in 2018, Proposition 12 prohibits pork sold in the state if the breeding pig had less than 24 square feet of usable floor space. Industry groups say the law effectively requires farmers nationwide to comply given California’s size, and they’ve also criticized the standard as arbitrary.
Young Democrats say David Hogg might be better off outside DNC - Many young Democrats see David Hogg’s exit from the Democratic National Committee (DNC) as potentially accelerating his push to wage progressive primary challenges to middle-of-the-road incumbents.That sentiment was bolstered Tuesday with 33-year-old democratic socialist Zohran Mamdani’s stunning Democratic primary win in New York City’s mayoral race. “I think with what David Hogg wants to do, it does make more sense probably to not let the constant tug-of-war between that and the party be the news cycle,” said Jake Rakov, a 37-year-old running to unseat Rep. Brad Sherman (D-Calif.), a septuagenarian who has served 15 terms in the House. Hogg and other progressives have positioned Mamdani’s victory as a blueprint for advancing a new future for Democrats as the party continues to reckon with its precipitous slides in the 2024 election, especially among young voters. His group, Leaders We Deserve, is one of several organizations that have risen up in the last several cycles dedicated to electing young progressives. “The work that he’s been doing at Leaders We Deserve is so much more effective done outside the party infrastructure,” said Amanda Litman, the founder of Run for Something, another progressive group. Hogg ouster underscores Dem divides Hogg was elected one of the vice chairs of the DNC in February in a vote that was challenged months later for its adherence to the party’s rules on gender diversity. The rancor only intensified after audio was leaked to Politico of party Chair Ken Martin telling DNC officers, including Hogg, that he was unsure of his ability to lead due to the feud. After the Democrats voted to redo the election, Hogg announced he would not run again. Democrats last week elected Shasti Conrad, the party chair in Washington state, to fill Hogg’s vice chair spot. “It is sad to lose a young person in leadership,” said Stephanie Campanha Wheaton, a DNC representative for the Young Democrats of America and a staffer for Brad Lander, the New York City comptroller who cross-endorsed with Mamdani in the primary. “However, … at the end of the day, what matters is building power for young people.”
Paramount Settles Trump's '60 Minutes' Lawsuit With $16M Payment - No Apology Issued - Paramount Global has agreed to pay $16 million to settle a lawsuit filed by President Trump over a 60 Minutes interview with failed presidential candidate Kamala Harris, alleging deceptive edits intended to favor Democrats. The settlement includes legal fees but no direct or indirect payment to Trump; instead, the funds are allocated to his future presidential library. Paramount did not offer an apology or admit wrongdoing—yet another display of arrogance from a leftist legacy media in terminal decline as ratings plunge to record lows. 🚨BREAKING: CBS ordered to pay Trump $16M over the deceptively edited 60 minutes Kamala Harris interview! pic.twitter.com/VCl7XrruimHere's a breakdown of the settlement terms agreed upon by Paramount and President Trump's legal team: Paramount has reached an agreement in principle to resolve the lawsuit filed by President Trump and Representative Jackson in the Northern District of Texas and a threatened defamation action concerning a separate 60 Minutes report.Summary of terms
- Under the terms of the settlement, which were proposed by the mediator, Paramount will pay $16M in total, which includes plaintiffs' fees and costs, and except for fees and costs, will be allocated to the future presidential library.
- No amount will be paid directly or indirectly to President Trump or Rep. Jackson personally. The settlement will include a release of all claims regarding any CBS reporting through the date of the settlement, including the Texas action and the threatened defamation action.
- The Company has agreed that in the future, 60 Minutes will release transcripts of interviews with eligible U.S. presidential candidates after such interviews have aired, subject to redactions as required for legal or national security concerns.
- The settlement does not include a statement of apology or regret.
Paramount bends to Trump: 5 takeaways on ’60 Minutes’ settlement -- Paramount Global’s agreement to pay $16 million to settle a lawsuit brought by President Trump over a “60 Minutes” interview with then-Vice President Kamala Harris is reverberating across the media industry and highlighting Trump’s success in using the power of the federal government to pressure news outlets. The settlement, which had been speculated about for months, could also spark further litigation and headaches for Paramount, which is trying to secure before the end of the year a multibillion-dollar merger with fellow entertainment giant Skydance that will require approval by Trump’s Federal Communications Commission (FCC). Wednesday’s settlement notably does not include a statement of apology or regret. Trump’s suit claimed CBS News intentionally edited Harris’s answer to a question on the war in Gaza to cast her in a more coherent light, a premise the network routinely rejected in court documents and public statements. As part of its agreement to settle Trump’s lawsuit, Paramount said “60 Minutes” will release transcripts of future interviews with eligible U.S. presidential candidates after they air, “subject to redactions as required for legal or national security concerns.” The agreement shows executives at Paramount were unwilling to threaten the company’s impending Skydance merger with a drawn-out legal fight with the president. In the end, a payment of $16 million to Trump’s future presidential library and a promise to be more transparent with interview transcripts turned out to be enough to keep the case out of court. First Amendment advocates and press freedom organizations are universally condemning Paramount’s agreement to settle, with many arguing the decision could set a dangerous precedent for future litigation against major media companies by government officials. “Today is a sad day for press freedom. Paramount should have fought this extortionate lawsuit in court, and it would have prevailed,” said Jameel Jaffer, executive director of the Knight First Amendment Institute at Columbia University. “Now Trump’s presidential library will be a permanent monument to Paramount’s surrender, a continual reminder of its failure to defend freedoms that are essential to our democracy.” Tim Richardson of PEN America, one of the largest First Amendment advocacy groups in the country, called the decision “a spineless capitulation.” “This was a moment to defend press freedom and support reporters targeted by a frivolous legal attack,” he said. “Instead, Paramount chose appeasement to bolster its finances, sending a dangerous message that media outlets can be pressured into submission if corporate parents find their profits at risk from government action in unrelated areas.” Some Democrats and critics of the president warned in the weeks leading up to Wednesday’s settlement any payout to avoid a trial taken together with the pending Paramount/Skydance transaction could be seen as a bribe. A group of Senate progressives, led by Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), wrote to Paramount last month asking the company to “not capitulate to this dangerous move to authoritarianism” and to instead defend itself in court. Several state lawmakers in California went a step further, writing to executives at Paramount saying they would launch an investigation into the matter to ensure “the integrity of California’s communications economy, ensuring that public-facing media enterprises compete based on content and quality, not influence, capitulation, or political appeasement.” After Wednesday’s settlement was reached, Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) issued a blistering statement saying the deal “could be bribery in plain sight.” “Paramount has refused to provide answers to a congressional inquiry, so I’m calling for a full investigation into whether or not any anti-bribery laws were broken,” Warren said. And some at Trump’s FCC are also raising concerns about the fate of the Paramount/Skydance deal now that a settlement agreement has been reached. Paramount’s settlement is likely to make some staffers at CBS unhappy with their corporate ownership, but the long-term effects of the episode on the broader media ecosystem remain to be seen. During his second term, Trump has granted exclusive interviews to friendly outlets on a regular basis, while his White House has sought to ban certain wire services from the building’s press pool and to pack briefings with media members sympathetic to his agenda. The president has increasingly singled out individual reporters by name, and he has called for the firing of journalists he says are trying to undermine his agenda. It all creates an environment of heightened stress for members of the mainstream press — a trend a growing number of legal observers expect to result in a more emboldened anti-media posture on the right and in politics more generally.
Thiel Joins Luckey & Lonsdale To Launch New Bank Aimed At Filling SVB Void For Stablecoins, AI, Defense & Advanced Manufacturing --A group of high-profile tech investors, including military tech entrepreneur Palmer Luckey and venture capitalist Joe Lonsdale, is preparing to launch a new bank designed to serve the niche left behind by the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank — and to do so with ambitions that extend deep into cryptocurrency, defense tech, and artificial intelligence. The bank, to be called Erebor, has formally applied for a national banking charter in the United States, according to documents made public this week. Named after the “Lonely Mountain” in The Lord of the Rings, Erebor would aim to serve the "innovation economy" - start-ups and individuals in sectors often viewed as too risky for traditional lenders, including blockchain, AI, defense, and advanced manufacturing.Erebor’s founders, who include backers of Donald Trump’s 2024 presidential bid, say their institution will fill a gap left by SVB’s 2023 collapse, which shook the tech sector’s financial infrastructure. That failure triggered panic among start-ups, many of which relied heavily on SVB’s tailored credit offerings. Though SVB’s remnants were absorbed by First Citizens and some staff migrated to HSBC, entrepreneurs and investors continue to complain of tightened credit access and fewer bank partners willing to underwrite emerging technologies, FT reports.Erebor’s co-founders first discussed launching a bank after the collapse of SVB in 2023, according to a person close to the matter. SVB had been the main bank for US start-ups and their venture capital backers.Its assets were sold to First Citizens, which has since relaunched SVB, and a number of its bankers moved to HSBC in the US. But investors and executives complain about a gap in banking services for fledgling tech companies since SVB’s demise — with some start-ups struggling to get the same access to capital. –FT The application describes Erebor as “a national bank… providing traditional banking products, as well as virtual currency-related products and services, for businesses and individuals,” with a focus on customers underserved by both traditional and fintech institutions. It will also offer services to non-U.S. companies seeking access to the American banking system.One of the bank’s major innovations, and potential regulatory flashpoints, is its plan to become a dominant player in stablecoin transactions, a controversial corner of the cryptocurrency world where digital tokens are pegged to traditional currencies like the U.S. dollar. Erebor’s filing describes its goal as becoming “the most regulated entity conducting and facilitating stablecoin transactions.”
Rick Perry-led company plans to build nation’s largest AI, nuclear project - A company co-founded by former Energy Secretary Rick Perry plans to build one of the world’s largest data center complexes, which would be powered by nuclear, natural gas, solar and batteries. Fermi America announced on Thursday its plans for a “HyperGrid” campus in Amarillo, Texas. The complex would contain the nation’s largest nuclear and natural gas projects, aiming to deliver 1 gigawatt of power by the end of next year. Work has already begun at the site, which is expected to span 5,769 acres, the company said. “The Chinese are building 22 nuclear reactors today to power the future of AI,” Perry said in a statement. “America has none. We’re behind, and it’s all hands on deck.” The company did not immediately reveal the total cost or its source of financing but said it is partnering with Texas Tech University on the project.
AI is now shaping promotions, raises and even firings, survey finds — Artificial intelligence (AI) isn’t just changing workflows, it’s deciding who moves up and who gets the boot. According to a new Resume Builder survey of 1,342 U.S. managers, 6 in 10 said they use AI tools to make decisions about their direct reports. Even more striking is that most managers who use AI said they’ve turned to it for high-stakes calls, such as determining raises, promotions and even who to let go. Yet two-thirds of those using AI admitted they haven’t received training on how to manage people with it, the survey found.ChatGPT was the most popular tool among AI-using managers, with 53% citing it as their go-to. Nearly 30% said they primarily use Microsoft’s Copilot, while 16% said they mostly use Google’s Gemini. Other surveys have shown that managers are more likely than their employees to use AI, but the latest findings suggest a dystopian future where leadership loses its human touch entirely.“While AI can support data-driven insights, it lacks context, empathy, and judgment,” Stacie Haller, chief career advisor at Resume Builder, warned in a statement.
China Erodes US AI Supremacy As Chatbot Race Defines Path To 2030 Dominance -Former PBOC Deputy Governor Zhu Min recently warned of a coming tsunami of domestic AI innovation, predicting that China could see 100 breakthroughs of the same magnitude as DeepSeek over the next 18 months. The rise of DeepSeek—a powerful, low-cost alternative to OpenAI's ChatGPT—has ignited a bull market in Chinese tech stocks and positioned itself as a serious contender in the deepening AI arms race between Washington and Beijing. As the world slides into an increasingly fractured and dangerous bipolar order, the battle for AI supremacy is shaping up to define who controls the 2030s.A Wall Street Journal report adds new details to China's rapid rise as a serious challenger to the U.S. in the deepening technological Cold War—one that is expected to intensify significantly by the end of the decade. The report highlights how DeepSeek and e-commerce giant Alibaba are steadily gaining market share across Asia, Europe, and the Middle East, with chatbot adoption spreading from banks and research desks to commercial enterprises and academia.HSBC and Standard Chartered have begun testing DeepSeek's models internally, according to people familiar with the matter. Saudi Aramco, the world's largest oil company, recently installed DeepSeek in its main data center.Even major American cloud service providers such as Amazon Web Services, Microsoft and Google offer DeepSeek to customers, despite the White House banning use of the company's app on some government devices over data-security concerns.-WSJStill, ChatGPT remains the global gold standard, thanks to advanced computing semiconductors, cutting-edge research, and strong access to financial capital. According to data from Sensor Tower, ChatGPT is the world's premier chatbot, with 910 million global downloads—far surpassing DeepSeek's 125 million.
Erebor's charter bid rides wave of fintech-friendly policy -Erebor, a startup bank backed by prominent tech figures with a business plan similar to that of now-infamous Silicon Valley Bank, has submitted an application for a national bank charter.Peter Thiel, co-founder of Paypal and supporter of President Trump, is one of a group of tech entrepreneurs seeking a national bank charter for Erebor, a digital-native de novo bank with crypto ambitions. Backed by tech billionaires, the crypto-focused digital startup bank's timely application reflects the current administration's openness to new tech-driven banking models — and raises concerns about regulatory impartiality, considering its backers' political ties.
Ripple joins other crypto firms seeking trust bank charters -- Ripple, the creator of the altcoin XRP and developer of distributed ledger technology, has applied for a national trust bank charter from the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency. The application follows on the heels of Circle and Wise, as crypto and payment companies seek crypto custody approval and direct access to the Federal Reserve payment system.
Fintech group urges court to uphold CFPB's open banking rule -- The Financial Technology Association filed a motion for summary judgment in federal court late Sunday, defending a final rule on consumer financial data rights that the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau under the Trump administration refused to uphold. The Financial Technology Association — which had been granted the right to defend the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau's open banking rule after the bureau declined to defend it — filed a motion Sunday to preserve the rule.
Fed sanctions Wyoming bank employee for embezzlement - The Federal Reserve has banned a Wyoming bank employee from the banking industry for embezzling more than $30,000 from a charity.
NCUA sets high bar for criminal referrals after Trump order --As the Trump administration battles what it calls the "overcriminalization" of financial offenses, the nation's top credit union regulator is following its lead. The credit union regulator, responding to a recent executive order, has established strict new standards for prosecuting financial crimes. Regulators are now supposed to make criminal referrals only in cases where putative defendants appear to have known they were breaking the law.
NCUA's one-member board liquidates two failed credit unions --Kyle Hauptman, the president of the National Credit Union Administration, voted to liquidate two troubled credit unions, a move that has raised procedural questions since Hauptman alone does not constitute a quorum of the NCUA board. The National Credit Union Administration, operating with just one board member, has liquidated two credit unions that were recently put into conservatorship. The failures are the first credit union failures since Democrats on the board were fired, leaving Republican Chair Kyle Hauptman.
Influential Fed supervision official takes resignation offer --Michael Gibson, director of the Federal Reserve's supervision and regulation division, has accepted the agency's voluntary resignation offer and plans to leave this month after more than three decades at the central bank, according to an internal email viewed by Bloomberg.
BankThink Conflict in the Middle East creates a compliance minefield for banks -- The ongoing turmoil in the Middle East has highlighted the complexities of successful anti-money-laundering compliance in a conflict zone. U.S. banks need to step up their game in order to stay safe, writes Mikhail Karataev. The Middle East is facing its most serious risk of regional war in decades. The international response to Israel's "Operation Narnia" against Iran has been deeply divided, exposing U.S. banks to new compliance risks tied to correspondent relationships across the region. Currently, 11 of the top 20 U.S. banks maintain direct correspondent relationships with institutions in the region, opening operational corridors for hundreds of domestic respondent banks and extending compliance vulnerabilities far beyond the immediate conflict zone. The escalation has disrupted SWIFT communications and delayed trade settlements across key hubs, complicating compliance workflows. Traditional boundaries between humanitarian aid, sanctioned actors and legitimate defense payments are rapidly eroding. In this volatile landscape, even routine transactions may carry political weight, reputational risk and regulatory complexity. The ongoing turmoil in the Middle East has highlighted the complexities of successful anti-money-laundering compliance in a conflict zone. U.S. banks need to step up their game in order to stay safe.
Exclusive: Warren presses Fed on stress capital buffer — Just days after the largest U.S. banks gave a record high performance in the annual stress tests, Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., said the Fed's newest plan to test the strength of the largest banks could imperil the financial system. A Federal Reserve proposal to calculate stress capital buffers would mean that the banking system could be less likely to withstand an economic shock, the Democratic senator said.
Big banks tally the gains from their stress-test successes - At Wells Fargo and Goldman Sachs, the good news stemming from last week's stress-test results cut across multiple fronts. After passing the Federal Reserve's stress tests with high marks, large banks announced dividend increases. In some cases, they also said the Fed had conceded that certain prior calculations needed to be revised.
Banks unveil capital plans: Live coverage --Starting at 4:30 p.m., the 22 large banks that were stress-tested by the Fed can release information about their plans for dividend increases and share repurchases.After passing the Federal Reserve's annual stress test with flying colors, large banks have some flexibility for capital actions like increasing their dividends and share repurchases.The 22 stress-tested banks, most of which have more than $250 billion of assets, are expected to start revealing their plans after the market closes this afternoon.On Friday, the Fed said that the banks it examined this year have plenty of excess capital to weather an economic downturn. This year's test wasn't as severe as it was in 2024, and banks' fundamental earnings have improved over the past 12 months. Still, the results exceeded optimistic expectations from analysts. "Everybody won," Piper Sandler analyst Scott Siefers told American Banker on Monday. "The results overall were just so much better than even optimistic people had really figured they would be."The Fed said that it expected banks to wait until July 1 after 4:30 p.m. to publicly disclose information about their planned capital actions and initial stress capital buffer requirements.Typically in those disclosures, banks note their new capital requirements, along with dividend increases and sometimes stock buybacks. But as the financial regulators weigh different capital rule proposals, banks may opt to wait on offering more information until there's more certainty around future requirements.Banks are slated to begin reporting second-quarter earnings performance in about two weeks. Follow along for updates in real time about the stress-tested banks' capital plans.
- U.S. Bancorp says it will raise its dividend U.S. Bancorp moved to increase its dividend by 4% to 52 cents per share after disclosing the Federal Reserve set its 2025 stress capital buffer at 2.6%. The 2025 result represents a drop from the current buffer of 3.1%. "The results of this year's stress test demonstrate that we are well-capitalized, have a healthy balance sheet and remain prepared to manage potential industry stress and withstand a severe economic downturn," CEO Gunjan Kedia said Tuesday in a press release.
- BNY, State Street raise dividends after passing stress tests BNY Mellon and State Street Corporation both plan to increase their quarterly dividends as their stress capital buffers remain flat, the banks announced on Tuesday. BNY plans to raise its dividend by 13%, bringing it to $0.53 per share. The increase will take effect next quarter, pending approval by the company's board of directors. State Street, meanwhile, expects to give its shareholders an 11% boost to their dividends, raising the payout to $0.84 per share. After this year's stress tests, both banks said their stress capital buffers would remain at 2.5%, the lowest level allowable. BNY's buffer has remained at that level since 2020, when the requirement was first introduced. State Street said its calculated buffer this year was "well below the 2.5% minimum."
- Goldman gets big buffer relief, hikes dividend - Goldman Sachs announced Tuesday that not only will its stress capital buffer decrease with the results of its latest test, but the Fed said the bank's 2024 results will also come down, effective immediately. Goldman saw one of the largest stress capital buffer decreases across the banks tested this year. On Tuesday, the bank said its SCB would go down to 3.4%, a decrease of nearly three percentage points. The Wall Street bank also said that its current SCB, assessed by the Fed after the 2024 stress tests last summer, has been reduced from 6.2% to 6.1%. Last year, Goldman reported one of the larger jumps in its stress capital buffer.
- When the new SCB takes effect in the fall, the bank's CET1 ratio requirement will be 10.9%, down from its current 13.6% minimum. As of the first quarter, Goldman's CET1 ratio was about 15%. The bank upped its dividend by 33% from $3.00 to $4.00 per share.
- The good news for Wells Fargo isn’t limited to just this year - Wells Fargo got a double dose of good news Tuesday. First and foremost, Wells said the Federal Reserve set its stress capital buffer for the year beginning Oct. 1 at 2.5%, well below 2024's 3.8% level. In addition, regulators revised the 2024 number downward to 3.7% due to calculation errors. On the heels of those announcements, Wells disclosed that it plans to increase its third-quarter dividend by 12.5% to 45 cents per share. Buffalo-based M&T Bancorp received a similar result, announcing Tuesday that the Fed plans to lower its 2025 stress capital buffer to 2.7%, down from the 3.8% level set last year. The downward movement would give M&T a minimum CET1 requirement of 7.2%, well below the 11.5% level that the bank reported on March 31.
- PNC plans to increase dividend by 6% --PNC Financial Services Group appears to be interpreting the Federal Reserve's decision to hold its stress capital buffer steady at 2.5% as a vote of confidence. The Pittsburgh-based regional bank announced Tuesday that it would go forward with plans to increase its dividend by 6% to $1.70 in the third quarter. PNC is also maintaining its current share repurchase plan. PNC's current Common Equity Tier 1 capital ratio is 10.6%, comfortably above the 7% minimum stress capital buffer regulators are requiring.
- Truist to maintain dividend and repurchase plans -Truist announced Tuesday it would maintain current dividend and share repurchase plans after the Federal Reserve set its preliminary stress capital buffer at 2.5% for the 12 months beginning Oct. 1. The Fed had set Truist's 2024 buffer at 2.8%. The buffer, when added to the Basel III minimum Common Equity Tier 1 ratio of 4.5%, results in a minimum CET1 ratio of 7%, well below Truist's current ratio of 11.3%.
- JPMorganChase increases buybacks -JPMorganChase announced Tuesday that, under the current stress test framework, its required common equity Tier 1 capital ratio decreased from 12.3% to 11.5%, as the bank's stress capital buffer will drop to the regulatory minimum of 2.5%. The $4 trillion-asset company said it would roll out a new $50 billion common share repurchase plan, though it didn't offer a timeline for when it will redistribute that capital. JPMorgan also increased its quarterly common stock dividend to $1.50 per share, up from $1.40, for the third quarter. "Our fortress balance sheet, with significant excess capital and robust liquidity, enables us to be a pillar of strength — in both good times and bad times," said Chairman and CEO Jamie Dimon in a prepared statement Tuesday. He added that the bank's team also "look forward to future proposals" from the Fed to "increase transparency and address longstanding issues with the current SCB framework." The bank has built up tens of billions of dollars in capital cushion, but began reducing its CET1 ratio earlier this year for the first time in years. As of the first quarter, its CET1 ratio was more than 15%.
- Banks have plenty of capital, Fed’s tests show -Banks turned out their strongest performances since the Fed's stress protocols were rolled out in 2018. The Fed found that in its worst-case scenario, banks aggregate common equity Tier 1 capital ratio would decline by up to 1.8%, compared with up to 2.8% last year. Until last fall, banks were building up their capital cushions in preparation for the potential of the so-called Basel III endgame — a proposal from the Fed that would see capital requirements for large financial institutions surge. Now, upcoming rules under the Trump administration aren't expected to be as severe, meaning banks may have some capital to burn.
- Bank of America ups dividend -America's second-largest bank is giving more back to its shareholders after seeing an improvement in its stress capital buffer this year. Beginning in the third quarter of 2025, Bank of America's dividend will rise to $0.28 per share, an 8% increase, the bank announced on Tuesday. After this year's stress tests, BofA's stress capital buffer is expected to drop to 2.5% — down from 3.2% last year — starting in October.
What's next after strong bank stress tests? -- Large banks soared through the Federal Reserve's annual stress test this year, demonstrating excess capital positions across the industry. But industry may take the results more as a signal of a positive regulatory direction than as a barometer for banks' financial health. While banks will likely increase near-term dividend plans, analysts and investors are more focused on the long-term outlook for capital requirements from regulators.
Trades urge regulators to revisit asset thresholds - Over 50 trade groups sent a joint letter to regulators urging them to raise bank regulatory thresholds, arguing inflation and growth have distorted many of the regulatory triggers for enhanced prudential standards. In a joint letter signed by over 50 bank trade groups, leaders in the banking industry urged regulators to revise bank regulatory thresholds upward to keep up with inflation.
Stability is the SLR proposal's goal — but it's no guarantee --Regulators want banks to do more to support the smooth functioning of the Treasury market. Whether their newest reform effort is the best way to achieve that goal, however, is a matter of debate. Regulators hope changes to the supplementary leverage ratio will improve Treasury market function, but whether that happens depends in large part on how banks react and adapt.
GOP megabill cutting CFPB funding goes to Trump's desk -- The House narrowly passed a massive tax and spending bill, capping months of deliberations and sending President Trump's signature legislative priorities to his desk, where he is expected to swiftly sign it, symbolically, on July 4. House Republicans overcame internal divisions to narrowly pass President Trump's tax and spending package Thursday afternoon. The measure would cut the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau's funding level, among other provisions.
BankThink: Credit card mandates are antithetical to free market principles -Efforts to shoehorn the Credit Card Competition Act into pieces of popular legislation need to be defeated. The proposed law would harm the small businesses and consumers it purports to help, writes Thomas Aiello, of the National Taxpayers Union. Thanks in large part to the Department of Government Efficiency, or DOGE, Washington is finally having honest conversations about the ballooning size and scope of government. Efforts to shoehorn the Credit Card Competition Act into pieces of popular legislation need to be defeated. The proposed law would harm the small businesses and consumers it purports to help.
BankThink: Funding cuts to credit counselors will devastate American communities -Federal grants funding nonprofits that help people build strong credit are being slashed. America's financial lending and counseling nonprofits could soon be on the brink of collapse. The result will be more foreclosures, evictions, bankruptcies, and out-of-business signs at small businesses across the country, writes Dara Duguay, of Credit Builders Alliance.
Fannie and Freddie: Single Family Serious Delinquency Rates Decreased in May -- Freddie Mac reported that the Single-Family serious delinquency rate in May was 0.55%, down from 0.57% April. Freddie's rate is up year-over-year from 0.49% in May 2024, however, this is below the pre-pandemic level of 0.60%.Freddie's serious delinquency rate peaked in February 2010 at 4.20% following the housing bubble and peaked at 3.17% in August 2020 during the pandemic.Fannie Mae reported that the Single-Family serious delinquency rate in May was 0.53%, down from 0.55% in April. The serious delinquency rate is up year-over-year from 0.48% in May 2024, however, this is below the pre-pandemic lows of 0.65%. The Fannie Mae serious delinquency rate peaked in February 2010 at 5.59% following the housing bubble and peaked at 3.32% in August 2020 during the pandemic.These are mortgage loans that are "three monthly payments or more past due or in foreclosure". Mortgages in forbearance are being counted as delinquent in this monthly report but are not reported to the credit bureaus. For Fannie, by vintage, for loans made in 2004 or earlier (1% of portfolio), 1.37% are seriously delinquent (down from 1.39% the previous month).For loans made in 2005 through 2008 (1% of portfolio), 1.94% are seriously delinquent (down from 1.98%).For recent loans, originated in 2009 through 2023 (98% of portfolio), 0.49% are seriously delinquent (down from 0.50%). So, Fannie is still working through a handful of poor performing loans from the bubble years. Multi-Family Delinquencies Equals Near Highest Level Since 2011 (ex-Pandemic)
FHFA’s National Mortgage Database: Outstanding Mortgage Rates, LTV and Credit Scores today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: FHFA’s National Mortgage Database: Outstanding Mortgage Rates, LTV and Credit Scores. A brief excerpt: Here are some graphs on outstanding mortgages by interest rate, the average mortgage interest rate, borrowers’ credit scores and current loan-to-value (LTV) from the FHFA’s National Mortgage Database through Q1 2025 (released last Friday).Here is some data showing the distribution of interest rates on closed-end, fixed-rate 1-4 family mortgages outstanding at the end of each quarter since Q1 2013 through Q1 2025. This shows the surge in the percent of loans under 3% starting in early 2020 as mortgage rates declined sharply during the pandemic. Note that a fairly large percentage of mortgage loans were under 4% prior to the pandemic!The percent of outstanding loans under 4% peaked in Q1 2022 at 65.1% (now at 53.4%), and the percent under 5% peaked at 85.6% (now at 71.3%). These low existing mortgage rates made it difficult for homeowners to sell their homes and buy a new home since their monthly payments would increase sharply.This was a key reason existing home inventory levels were so low. However, time is eroding this lock-in effect.The percent of loans over 6% bottomed in Q2 2022 at 7.3% and has increased to 18.8% in Q1 2025.Here are graphs on the average mortgage interest rate, borrowers’ credit scores and current loan-to-value (LTV).
MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly Survey -From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly Survey - Mortgage applications increased 2.7 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending June 27, 2025. Last week’s results included an adjustment for the Juneteenth holiday. The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 2.7 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index increased 13 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index increased 7 percent from the previous week and was 40 percent higher than the same week one year ago. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 0.1 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index increased 10 percent compared with the previous week and was 16 percent higher than the same week one year ago. “Mortgage rates were lower across all loan types last week, with the 30-year fixed rate declining to its lowest level since April at 6.79 percent. This decline prompted an increase in refinance applications, driven by a 10 percent increase in conventional applications and a 22 percent increase in VA refinance applications,” “As borrowers with larger loans tend to be more sensitive to rate changes, the average loan size for a refinance application increased to $313,700 after averaging less than $300,000 for the past six weeks. Purchase activity was essentially flat over the week, as overall uncertainty continues to hold homebuyers out of the market. However, purchase activity still remains 16 percent higher than last year’s pace.” ... The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($806,500 or less) decreased to 6.79 percent from 6.88 percent, with points decreasing to 0.62 from 0.63 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans. The first graph shows the MBA mortgage purchase index. According to the MBA, purchase activity is up 16% year-over-year unadjusted. Purchase application activity is still depressed, but above the lows of October 2023 and is 10% above the lowest levels during the housing bust. The second graph shows the refinance index since 1990.
Housing June 30th Weekly Update: Inventory up 0.3% Week-over-week, Up 28.7% Year-over-year -Altos reports that active single-family inventory was up 0.3% week-over-week.Inventory is now up 33.1% from the seasonal bottom in January and is increasing. Usually, inventory is up about 20% from the seasonal low by this week in the year. So, 2025 is seeing a larger than normal pickup in inventory.The first graph shows the seasonal pattern for active single-family inventory since 2015.The red line is for 2025. The black line is for 2019. Inventory was up 28.7% compared to the same week in 2024 (last week it was up 30.7%), and down 14.1% compared to the same week in 2019 (last week it was down 13.2%). This is the highest level since November 2019. For 2019, this was the week inventory peaked for the year (then moved sideways for several months), so any further increase this year will close to gap to 2019. It now appears inventory will be close to 2019 levels towards the end of 2025.This second inventory graph is courtesy of Altos Research. As of June 27th, inventory was at 831 thousand (7-day average), compared to 829 thousand the prior week. Mike Simonsen discusses this data regularly on Youtube
Freddie Mac House Price Index Declined in May; Up 2.2% Year-over-year -- Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Freddie Mac House Price Index Declined in May; Up 2.2% Year-over-year A brief excerpt: Freddie Mac reported that its “National” Home Price Index (FMHPI) decreased -0.23% month-over-month (MoM) on a easonally adjusted (SA) basis in May. On a year-over-year (YoY) basis, the National FMHPI was up 2.2% in May, down from up 2.6% YoY in April. The YoY increase peaked at 19.0% in July 2021, and for this cycle, bottomed at up 0.9% YoY in April 2023. ... As of May, 31 states and D.C. were below their previous peaks, Seasonally Adjusted. The largest seasonally adjusted declines from the recent peaks are in D.C. (-4.7), Colorado (-3.1%), Idaho (-3.0%), Texas (-2.7%), and Florida (-2.2%). For cities (Core-based Statistical Areas, CBSA), 257 of the 384 CBSAs are below their previous peaks. Here are the 30 cities with the largest declines from the peak, seasonally adjusted. Austin continues to be the worst performing city. However, 4 of the 6 cities with the largest price declines are in Florida. Cities in Florida (10) and Texas (7) dominate this list.
Cotality: House Prices Increased 1.8% YoY in May -- From Cotality (formerly CoreLogic): US home price insights — July 2025 -- Spring homebuying season continues to be defined by slower price growth and tepid home buying activity.
• Year-over-year price growth dipped to 1.8% in May 2025, down from 5% price growth last May and slowest since the winter of 2012.
• Seasonal increase in home prices continues to be weak, up 0.3% compared to the month before, and less than half of 0.8% increase typically seen between April and May
• In more affordable Midwestern markets, such as Indianapolis, Kansas City, and Knoxville, as well as markets surrounding New York metro, seasonal gains in May continued to outperform pre-pandemic trends
• Illinois, up 6.4% year-over-year entered the top 5 states with the highest home price growth, following Rhode Island, New Jersey, Wyoming and Connecticut which all continue to record more than triple the national rate of price growth
• Florida, Texas, Hawaii, and Washington D.C. reported negative home price growth.
House prices are under pressure with more inventory and sluggish sales.
Asking Rents Mostly Unchanged Year-over-year --Today, in the Real Estate Newsletter: Asking Rents Mostly Unchanged Year-over-year Brief excerpt: Another monthly update on rents. Tracking rents is important for understanding the dynamics of the housing market. Slower household formation and increased supply (more multi-family completions) has kept asking rents under pressure. More recently, immigration policy has become a negative for rentals. The national multifamily vacancy rate currently stands at 7%, the highest reading we've recorded in our index. We're past the peak of a multifamily construction surge, but the market is still absorbing all of the new units, and vacancies are still trending up. In May 2025, U.S. median rent posted its 22nd consecutive year-over-year decline, dropping 1.7% for 0-2 bedroom properties across the 50 largest metropolitan areas.
Construction Spending Decreased 0.3% in May -- From the Census Bureau reported that overall construction spending decreased: Construction spending during May 2025 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $2,138.2 billion, 0.3 percent below the revised April estimate of $2,145.5 billion. The May figure is 3.5 percent below the May 2024 estimate of $2,215.4 billion. Private spending decreased and public spending increased slightly: Spending on private construction was at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $1,626.6 billion, 0.5 percent below the revised April estimate of $1,634.2 billion. ... In May, the estimated seasonally adjusted annual rate of public construction spending was $511.6 billion, 0.1 percent above the revised April estimate of $511.3 billion. This graph shows private residential and nonresidential construction spending, and public spending, since 1993. Note: nominal dollars, not inflation adjusted. Private residential (red) spending is 9.2% below the peak in 2022. Private non-residential (blue) spending is 6.8% below the peak in December 2023. Public construction spending (orange) is slightly below the peak of October 2024. The second graph shows the year-over-year change in construction spending. On a year-over-year basis, private residential construction spending is down 6.7%. Private non-residential spending is down 3.9% year-over-year. Public spending is up 3.3% year-over-year.This was below consensus expectations and spending for the previous two months were revised down.
Light Vehicles Sales Decreased to 15.34 million SAAR in June --The BEA reported this morning that light vehicle sales were at 15.34 million in June on a seasonally adjusted annual rate basis (SAAR). This was down 1.7% from the sales rate in May, and up 2.3% from June 2024. Note that sales in June 2024 were depressed by a cyberattack impacting dealers’ online systems. This makes the YoY comparison look better. This graph shows light vehicle sales since 2006 from the BEA (blue) through June (red). Vehicle sales were over 17 million SAAR in March and April as consumers rushed to "beat the tariffs". Since then, sales have declined for two consecutive months. The second graph shows light vehicle sales since the BEA started keeping data in 1967. Sales in June were below the consensus forecast of 15.5 million SAAR.
Heavy Truck Sales Decreased in June - This graph shows heavy truck sales since 1967 using data from the BEA. The dashed line is the June 2025 seasonally adjusted annual sales rate (SAAR) of 435 thousand. Note: "Heavy trucks - trucks more than 14,000 pounds gross vehicle weight." Heavy truck sales were at 435 thousand SAAR in June, down from 450 thousand in May, and down 1.4% from 442 thousand SAAR in June 2024.This is the lowest sales rate since January 2022. Year-to-date (NSA) sales are down 6.2%.Usually, heavy truck sales decline sharply prior to a recession and sales were a little soft recently.
ISM® Manufacturing index Increased to 49.0% in June -- The ISM manufacturing index indicated expansion. The PMI® was at 49.0% in June, up from 48.5% in May. The employment index was at 45.0%, down from 46.8% the previous month, and the new orders index was at 46.2%, down from 47.6%. From ISM: Manufacturing PMI® at 49% June 2025 Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business® - “The Manufacturing PMI® registered 49 percent in June, a 0.5-percentage point increase compared to the 48.5 percent recorded in May. The overall economy continued in expansion for the 62nd month after one month of contraction in April 2020. (A Manufacturing PMI® above 42.3 percent, over a period of time, generally indicates an expansion of the overall economy.) The New Orders Index contracted for the fifth month in a row following a three-month period of expansion; the figure of 46.4 percent is 1.2 percentage points lower than the 47.6 percent recorded in May. The June reading of the Production Index (50.3 percent) is 4.9 percentage points higher than May’s figure of 45.4, returning the index to expansion territory. The Prices Index remained in expansion (or ‘increasing’) territory, registering 69.7 percent, up 0.3 percentage point compared to the reading of 69.4 percent reported in May. The Backlog of Orders Index registered 44.3 percent, down 2.8 percentage points compared to the 47.1 percent recorded in May. The Employment Index registered 45 percent, down 1.8 percentage points from May’s figure of 46.8 percent. “The Supplier Deliveries Index indicated slower delivery performance, though the pace picked up somewhat: The reading of 54.2 percent is down 1.9 percentage points from the 56.1 percent recorded in May. (Supplier Deliveries is the only ISM® Report On Business® index that is inversed; a reading of above 50 percent indicates slower deliveries, which is typical as the economy improves and customer demand increases.) The Inventories Index registered 49.2 percent, up 2.5 percentage points compared to May’s reading of 46.7 percent. “The New Export Orders Index reading of 46.3 percent is 6.2 percentage points higher than the reading of 40.1 percent registered in May. The Imports Index gained back its loss from the previous month, registering 47.4 percent, 7.5 percentage points higher than May’s reading of 39.9 percent.”This suggests manufacturing contracted in June. This was slightly above the consensus forecast. New export orders were still weak; employment was weak and prices very strong.
BLS: Job Openings Increased to 7.8 million in May - From the BLS: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary - The number of job openings was little changed at 7.8 million in May, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the month, both hires and total separations were little changed at 5.5 million and 5.2 million, respectively. Within separations, quits (3.3 million) and layoffs and discharges (1.6 million) changed little. The following graph shows job openings (black line), hires (dark blue), Layoff, Discharges and other (red column), and Quits (light blue column) from the JOLTS. Note: The difference between JOLTS hires and separations is similar to the CES (payroll survey) net jobs headline numbers. Note that hires (dark blue) and total separations (red and light blue columns stacked) are usually pretty close each month. This is a measure of labor market turnover. When the blue line is above the two stacked columns, the economy is adding net jobs - when it is below the columns, the economy is losing jobs. The spike in layoffs and discharges in March 2020 is labeled, but off the chart to better show the usual data. Jobs openings increased in May to 7.77 million from 7.40 million in April. The number of job openings (black) were down 2% year-over-year. Quits were down 2% year-over-year. These are voluntary separations. (See light blue columns at bottom of graph for trend for "quits").
ADP: Private Employment Decreased 33,000 in June -From ADP: ADP National Employment Report: Private Sector Employment Shed 33,000 Jobs in June; Annual Pay was Up 4.4% “Though layoffs continue to be rare, a hesitancy to hire and a reluctance to replace departing workers led to job losses last month,” said Dr. Nela Richardson, chief economist, ADP. “Still, the slowdown in hiring has yet to disrupt pay growth.” This was well below the consensus forecast of 110,000 jobs added. The BLS report will be released Thursday, and the consensus is for 129,000 non-farm payroll jobs added in June.
ADP Reports Biggest Drop In Service-Provider Jobs Since COVID Lockdown - Having trended weaker for the last two months, analysts expected a modest bounce back in the ADP Employment Report for June (following the mixed picture from ISM/PMI for employment and another mixed bag from Challenger, Grey Job Cuts data this morning). BUT... The headline print saw a 33k DROP in jobs in June (and a downward revision to +29k in May) - the biggest/first drop since March 2023. That is a 5 sigma miss from expectations... And the biggest miss since Aug 2022 (third monthly miss in a row)... "Though layoffs continue to be rare, a hesitancy to hire and a reluctance to replace departing workers led to job losses last month," said Nela Richardson Chief Economist, ADP. After losing 2k jobs in May, Goods-Producing firms managed 32k job additions in June but Services providers saw jobs drop 66k - the biggest drop since COVID lockdowns...
June Employment Report: 147 thousand Jobs, 4.1% Unemployment Rate - From the BLS: Employment Situation- Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 147,000 in June, and the unemployment rate changed little at 4.1 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains occurred in state government and health care. Federal government continued to lose jobs....The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for April was revised up by 11,000, from +147,000 to +158,000, and the change for May was revised up by 5,000, from +139,000 to +144,000. With these revisions, employment in April and May combined is 16,000 higher than previously reported.The first graph shows the jobs added per month since January 2021.Total payrolls increased by 147 thousand in June. Private payrolls increased by 74 thousand, and public payrolls increased 73 thousand (Federal payrolls decreased 7 thousand).Payrolls for April and May were revised up by 16 thousand, combined.The second graph shows the year-over-year change in total non-farm employment since 1968.In June, the year-over-year change was 1.81 million jobs. Employment was up solidly year-over-year.The third graph shows the employment population ratio and the participation rate.The Labor Force Participation Rate decreased to 62.3% in June, from 62.4% in May. This is the percentage of the working age population in the labor force.The Employment-Population ratio was unchanged at 59.7% from 59.7% in May (blue line). The fourth graph shows the unemployment rate.The unemployment rate was decreased to 4.1% in June from 4.2% in May. This was above consensus expectations and April and May payrolls were revised up by 16,000 combined.
June jobs report weakness: not enough for “recession watch,” but not too far away either -- Even before the new Administration took office in Washington, my focus had been on whether the economy would have a “soft” or “hard” landing, i.e., recession. That has only intensified by the utter chaos of this Administration, particularly about tariffs. So my focus now is looking for “hard” vs.”soft” data indicating its impact. While the headline numbers of this month’s employment report were positive to neutral, the underlying component were mainly weak to negative, including several very important ones.Below is my in depth synopsis.
- 147,000 jobs added. Private sector jobs increased 74,000. Government jobs rose 73,000. The three month average increased +3,000 to +139,000, about average for this year, but above the lowest average last summer.
- Within government jobs, Federal jobs declined -7,000, while State jobs increased 47,000 and local jobs increased 33,000 (likely due to education).
- The pattern of downward revisions to previous months was reversed this month. April was revised upward by 11,000, and May by 5,000, for a net increase of 16,000.
- The alternate, and more volatile measure in the household report, rose by 93,000 jobs. On a YoY basis, this series increased 2,211,000 jobs, or an average of 184,000 monthly.
- The U3 unemployment rate declined -0.1% to 4.1%. Since the three month average is 4.167% vs. a low of 4.0% for the three month average in the past 12 months, or an increase of 0.1.67%, this means the “Sahm rule” is not in play.
- The U6 underemployment rate declined -0.1% to 7.7%, down -0.3% from its 3+year high in February.
- Further out on the spectrum, those who are not in the labor force but want a job now rose by 39,,000 to 6.030 million, its highest level since July 2021.
- the average manufacturing workweek, one of the 10 components of the Index of Leading Indicators, was unchanged at 41.0 hours, but remains down -0.6 hours from its 2021 peak of 41.6 hours.
- Manufacturing jobs decreased by -7,000. This series had been in sharp decline, but it has generally leveled off in the past eight months. Nevertheless, with this month’s decline it set a 3 year low.
- Within that sector, motor vehicle manufacturing jobs declined 500.
- Truck driving, which had briefly rebounded, declined another -2,700.
- Construction jobs increased another 15,000.
- Residential construction jobs, which are even more leading, declined -500 from last month’s post-pandemic high.
- Goods producing jobs as a whole increased 6,000 to another post-pandemic high. These jobs typically decline before any recession occurs. But on a YoY% basis, these jobs are only 0.1%, which is very anemic although not necesarily recessionary.
- Temporary jobs, which have declined by over -640,000 since late 2022, declilned again this month, by -2,600, close to their post-pandemic low set last October.
- the number of people unemployed for 5 weeks or fewer declined -210,000 to 2,241,000, vs. its 12 month high of 2,465,000 last August.
- Average Hourly Earnings for Production and Nonsupervisory Personnel increased $.09, or +0.2%, to $31.24, for a YoY gain of just under +3.9%, its lowest YoY% gain in 4 years. Nevertheless, this continues to be well above the 2.4% YoY inflation rate as of last month.
- The index of aggregate hours worked for non-managerial workers declined -0.6%. This measure up only 0.6% YoY, the 5th lowest reading over the past two years.
- The index of aggregate payrolls for non-managerial workers declined -0.2%, and is up 4.5% YoY. With the exception of January 2024, this is the lowest gain in the past 4 years. Although this remains well above the YoY inflation rate, it has increased only 0.3% in the past three months, meaning it has almost certainly declined in real terms, although we won’t know that until the next CPI is released.
- Professional and business employment declined another -7,400. These tend to be well-paying jobs. This series peaked in May 2023, bottomed in October 2024, and is up less than 0.3% since then. It remains lower YoY by -0.2%, which in the past 80+ years - until now - has almost *always* meant recession. This is vs. last spring when it was down -0.9% YoY.
- The employment population ratio was unchanged at 59.7%, vs. 61.1% in February 2020.
- The Labor Force Participation Rate declined -0.1% to 62.3%, vs. 63.4% in February 2020.
SUMMARY: Last month I wrote that “Although the headline numbers were positive to neutral, this was about as poor a report as could be during an expansion.” If anything, under the hood this month was even weaker.For the second month in a row, the only reason the unemployment and underemployment rates did not go up was that the labor force participation declined significantly. The employment/population ratio also declined. Further out on the spectrum, those not in the labor force but who want a job increased to the highest level in almost 4 years.Additionally, most leading sectors declined, including total and auto manufacturing, trucking, temporary help, and residential construction. Professional and business employment also declined, as did government employment.Perhaps even more ominous, both aggregate hours and aggregate payrolls outright declined this month, even before accounting for inflation. In other words, the American middle and working class as a whole almost certainly saw an absolute decline in their purchasing power last month - something that typically has happened a few months before a recession begins. What saved this report from being even weaker was (1) state and local government jobs, mainly in education, which almost certainly involves residual unresolved post-pandemic seasonality; and (2) specialty and finishing construction trades, which tend to be later in the construction process. Additionally, the pattern of downward revisions to previous months was broken this month. Finally, this report was of a pattern with last month’s personal spending report, which showed a decline in the purchases of goods in real terms. Indeed, if construction jobs had turned down, this report would probably have merited going on “recession watch.” We’re not quite there, but we’re not far away either.
Comments on June Employment Report - by Bill McBride - The headline jobs number in the June employment report was above expectations and April and May payrolls were revised up by 16,000 combined. The participation rate decreased, the employment population ratio was unchanged, and the unemployment rate was decreased to 4.1%. -NOTE: State and local government education hiring was reported at 63.5 thousand in June (seasonally adjusted). On a Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA) basis, 542.4 thousand education jobs lost. This happens every June. However, this year fewer jobs were lost than expected resulting in the large SA gain. It is possible this is just a timing issue and more than expected educators will be let go in July. Earlier: June Employment Report: 147 thousand Jobs, 4.1% Unemployment Rate Since the overall participation rate is impacted by both cyclical (recession) and demographic (aging population, younger people staying in school) reasons, here is the employment-population ratio for the key working age group: 25 to 54 years old. The 25 to 54 years old participation rate increased in June to 83.5% from 83.4% in May. The 25 to 54 employment population ratio increased to 80.7% from 80.5% the previous month. Both are down slightly from the recent peaks, but still near the highest level this millennium. The graph shows the nominal year-over-year change in "Average Hourly Earnings" for all private employees from the Current Employment Statistics (CES). There was a huge increase at the beginning of the pandemic as lower paid employees were let go, and then the pandemic related spike reversed a year later. Wage growth has trended down after peaking at 5.9% YoY in March 2022 and was at 3.7% YoY in June. From the BLS report: "The number of people employed part time for economic reasons, at 4.5 million, changed little in June. These individuals would have preferred full-time employment but were working part time because their hours had been reduced or they were unable to find full-time jobs." The number of persons working part time for economic reasons decreased in June to 4.47 million from 4.62 million in May. This is above the pre-pandemic levels. These workers are included in the alternate measure of labor underutilization (U-6) that decreased to 7.7% from 7.8% in the previous month. This is down from the record high in April 2020 of 22.9% and up from the lowest level on record (seasonally adjusted) in December 2022 (6.6%). (This series started in 1994). This measure is above the 7.0% level in February 2020 (pre-pandemic). Unemployed over 26 Weeks This graph shows the number of workers unemployed for 27 weeks or more. According to the BLS, there are 1.65 million workers who have been unemployed for more than 26 weeks and still want a job, up from 1.46 million the previous month. This is down from post-pandemic high of 4.171 million, and up from the recent low of 1.056 million. This is above pre-pandemic levels. Summary: The headline jobs number in the May employment report was above expectations and April and May payrolls were revised up by 16,000 combined. The participation rate decreased, the employment population ratio was unchanged, and the unemployment rate was decreased to 4.1%. This was a solid employment report; however, a surprising number of state and local education employees were hired in June (63.5 thousand).
Microsoft To Cut 9,000 Jobs In Second Major Layoff Wave --Seattle Times business reporter Alex Halverson just published a breaking story on Microsoft’s latest wave of layoffs, which will affect up to 9,100 employees—roughly 4% of its 228,000-person workforce. The move is part of a broader cost-cutting and restructuring effort. Halverson provided more color: Microsoft is kicking off its fiscal year by firing thousands of employees in the largest round of layoffs since 2023, the company confirmed Wednesday. In an ongoing effort to streamline its workforce, Microsoft said that as much as 4%, or roughly 9,100, of the company’s employees could be affected by Wednesday’s layoffs. It’s unclear how many are based in Washington. The move follows two waves of layoffs in May and June, which saw Microsoft fire more than 6,000 employees, almost 2,300 of whom were based in Washington. Data compiled by Bloomberg shows Microsoft’s workforce stands at 228,000 (as of 4Q24). A 4% cut suggests that as data centers come online, many white-collar roles are becoming obsolete, marking what could be a generational peak in its total headcount. And it may signal further job declines ahead for Microsoft, as new data centers come online to support AI tools, driving productivity gains. Expired: workers
There's A Lot Of Honest Pain Out There -Yesterday, someone left a comment on my post about Zohran Mamdani that stuck with me in a way few internet comments ever do. It wasn’t defensive or hostile—it was sobering.The commenter challenged me, not to just oppose Mamdani’s ideology, but to think about why his message resonates at all. Here's what they said:“You really ought to ask yourself: why does his message resonate? Why did Russia have a revolution? People don’t wake up, make the espresso, make an omelet, look out the back window across their deck, the lake, the boat, ready for a day of country living, and say ‘You know what, honey… how about we start that revolution today?’ Nobody does that. Revolutions are made by very unhappy people. Why are they unhappy? Mostly because society largely doesn’t work for them… There is a lot of pain out there, and a lot of it is honest pain.”They’re right. There is a lot of honest pain.And if you’ve followed anything I’ve written over the last several years, you know I’ve been screaming into the void about how broken our monetary system is. We have created an economy where the top 10% get wealthier with each crisis, while the bottom 50% watches their standard of living deteriorate. I’ve described it here when talking about the GameStop crisis (33:40). The frustration bubbling beneath the surface is not irrational. It's earned.People are watching the price of everything explode—housing, food, healthcare, energy—while wages stagnate. Meanwhile, Wall Street breaks records quarter after quarter. That disconnect doesn’t feel like capitalism to the average person. It feels rigged.So when someone like Mamdani shows up and says “seize the means of production,” it doesn’t sound crazy to people living paycheck to paycheck. It sounds like maybe, finally, someone is taking their suffering seriously. But here’s the part no one wants to talk about—especially not in polite political circles: the real culprit behind this pain is our broken monetary system. And both parties are to blame.
U.S. preschoolers are exposed to a broad range of potentially harmful chemicals, finds study -- A national study published in Environmental Science & Technology finds that children aged 2 to 4 years in the United States are routinely exposed to a broad range of potentially harmful chemicals. Many of the chemicals the researchers identified are not routinely monitored and may pose health risks. The research was conducted by multiple institutions across the United States in coordination with the Environmental influences on Child Health Outcomes (ECHO). The researchers analyzed urine samples from 201 children aged 2 to 4 years. They tested for 111 chemicals. Their study found:
- 96 chemicals were detected in at least five children.
- 48 chemicals were found in over half of the children.
- 34 chemicals were detected in more than 90% of children—including nine chemicals not currently tracked in national health surveys like the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES).
"Our study shows that childhood exposure to potentially harmful chemicals is widespread. This is alarming because we know early childhood is a critical window for brain and body development," s. "Many of these chemicals are known or suspected to interfere with hormones, brain development and immune function." The researchers looked for childhood exposure to common environmental chemicals, including:
- Phthalates and phthalate alternatives used in plastics like toys and food packaging, as well as personal care products and household items.
- Parabens commonly used in cosmetics, lotions, shampoos and pharmaceuticals.
- Bisphenols found in plastic containers, food can linings and thermal paper receipts.
- Benzophenones found in sunscreens, cosmetics and plastics.
- Pesticides used in agricultural and residential pest control.
- Organophosphate esters (OPEs) used as flame retardants in furniture and building materials and as plasticizers in food packaging.
- Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs), byproducts of combustion found in vehicle exhaust, grilled foods and tobacco smoke.
- Bactericides found in antibacterial soaps and personal care products.
Children are exposed to these environmental chemicals through everyday activities, such as eating, drinking, breathing indoor and outdoor air and touching contaminated surfaces. Frequent hand-to-mouth contact, playing close to the ground, and higher intake rates relative to their smaller body weight make kids especially vulnerable to chemical exposure.
Schoolchildren born late in the year may face greater risk of developing mental health problems --A recent study by the Norwegian University of Science and Technology (NTNU) has found that children born in October, November or December are statistically more often identified as having a mental health diagnosis than their classmates born earlier in the year. The findings apply to both boys and girls, and regardless of whether they were born full term or prematurely.The researchers have followed over one million Norwegians aged 4 to 17 years (all born between 1991 and 2012) through Norwegian health registries.The aim of the study was to identify what are known as "relative age effects." In other words, whether children and adolescents born late in the year are more frequently diagnosed with mental health disorders than their peers born early in the year (January, February and March)."Our findings show that the youngest members of a school class tend to be diagnosed with a mental illness more frequently than the oldest," said Christine Strand Bachmann, a Ph.D. research fellow at the Norwegian University of Science and Technology (NTNU's) Department of Public Health and Nursing. “This is most obvious with regard to ADHD, where we saw an increase in incidence of 20–80% for the youngest class members, depending on whether the children were born full term or prematurely."The researchers found the same trend for "other neuropsychiatric disorders." These include delayed developments in areas such as language, academic skills and motor skills. The study has been published in BMJ Pediatrics Open.
ICE agents filmed urinating on California school grounds – School surveillance cameras captured nearly a dozen U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) agents urinating on storage containers near a playground after trespassing on the California school’s property, officials in Pico Rivera said in a letter to the Department of Homeland Security (DHS). The incident, according to members of the El Rancho Unified School District (ERUSD), occurred on June 17 after an estimated 10 marked and unmarked vehicles carrying agents entered and parked on the campus of Ruben Salazar High School. School staff informed the federal agents that they did not have permission to enter or stay on campus grounds and asked them to leave. Officials with the El Rancho Unified School District detailed the incident in a letter sent to DHS Secretary Kristi Noem. (ERUSD) “Please note that at no time was a legal or legitimate reason offered or provided as to why the ICE agents entered and remained on school grounds, nor did they provide any judicial warrant(s),” states the letter, addressed to Homeland Security Secretary Krist Noem. After the federal officers complied and left, school officials issued an alert informing the community of the agents’ brief presence on the campus. “Immediately after the incident, ERUSD staff advised ERUSD executive management that they observed ICE agents urinating at Salazar in public view,” the letter continues. A review of the school’s surveillance cameras appears to back up the claim, with agents seen on the footage walking back and forth between several different storage containers and, presumably, their vehicles. School officials noted in the letter that somewhere around 10 agents relieved themselves in broad daylight on the district’s property between 8:54 a.m. and 9:04 a.m. local time.
BankThink Cutbacks to federal student loan programs are shortsighted --Congress is considering major changes to federally supported student loan programs. If lawmakers aren't careful, they could close off a vital pipeline of talent that feeds vital public systems, writes Dan Rubin, of YELO Funding. A major proposal from Republican lawmakers would reshape federal student loan programs, increasing college costs for many and pushing more students toward private lenders, without clear alternative options. If lawmakers aren't careful, they could close off a vital pipeline of talent that feeds vital public systems.
Why frequent nightmares may shorten your life by years -- Waking up from a nightmare can leave your heart pounding, but the effects may reach far beyond a restless night. Adults who suffer bad dreams every week were almost three times more likely to die before age 75 than people who rarely have them.This alarming conclusion—which is yet to be peer reviewed—comes from researchers who combined data from four large long-term studies in the US, following more than 4,000 people between the ages of 26 and 74. At the beginning, participants reported how often nightmares disrupted their sleep. Over the next 18 years, the researchers kept track of how many participants died prematurely—227 in total. Even after considering common risk factors like age, sex, mental health, smoking and weight, people who had nightmares every week were still found to be nearly three times more likely to die prematurely—about the same risk as heavy smoking.Faster aging accounted for about 39% of the link between nightmares and early death, implying that whatever is driving the bad dreams is simultaneously driving the body's cells towards the finish line.Nightmares happen during so-called rapid-eye-movement sleep when the brain is highly active but muscles are paralyzed. The sudden surge of adrenaline, cortisol and other fight-or-flight chemicals can be as strong as anything experienced while awake. If that alarm bell rings night after night, the stress response may stay partially switched on throughout the day.Continuous stress takes its toll on the body. It triggers inflammation, raises blood pressure and speeds up the aging process by wearing down the protective tips of ourchromosomes. On top of that, being jolted awake by nightmares disrupts deep sleep, the crucial time when the body repairs itself and clears out waste at the cellular level. Together, these two effects—constant stress and poor sleep—may be the main reasons the body seems to age faster.
Neuroscientists remain steadfastly uncertain about how the brain encodes memory -Researchers from Monash University, in collaboration with the European Biostasis Foundation and Apex Neuroscience, have revealed that although most neuroscientists agree that long-term memories depend primarily on neuronal connectivity patterns, significant uncertainties persist regarding precisely how these memories are structurally encoded. Brains can retain memories for days, months and even across a lifetime of decades, through mechanisms that remain elusive to those at the cutting edge of neuroscience. Long-term memory enables animals to shape behaviors by linking past experiences with present contexts. There are fragile memories, like recalling the name of someone you just met, or the location of where the keys were set down, that can seemingly escape the brain's data capture. And there are durable memories that can survive periods of global neuronal inactivity and disruption, indicating that ongoing neural activity is not required to maintain stored information. Distinctions between memory formation and recall also suggest that stable structural changes, rather than transient biochemical processes, underpin long-term retention. Over the last century, numerous candidates have been proposed as the physical basis of memory storage. Structural alterations span a broad spectrum, from modifications of individual proteins and ion channels to large-scale changes in synaptic connectivity. Proposed mechanisms include synaptic strength adjustments, synaptogenesis, intracellular molecular modifications, changes in neuronal excitability, and alterations to myelination or extracellular matrix components. Some researchers assert that ensembles of synaptic connections form a definitive memory trace. Evidence from perturbations such as hypothermia, where fine neural structures transiently disappear without memory loss, raises doubts about the exclusivity of synaptic ensembles as memory substrates. Many of the proposed mechanisms may coexist, collaborate or compensate for one another, complicating efforts to isolate a singular physical structure for how memory is stored. After 100 years of study, neuroscientists lack consensus on which neurophysiological features encode long-term memories: whether a structural scale exists between molecular details and macroscopic brain features, and whether memory depends on precise molecular states or coarser patterns of connectivity, leaving the field in a persistent state of uncertainty.
Shingles, RSV vaccines may protect older adults from dementia - Older US adults who receive the AS01-adjuvanted shingles or respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) vaccines may be at lower risk for dementia in the next 18 months, University of Oxford researchers write in npj Vaccines. Because no difference was observed between the two vaccines, both of which contain the AS01 adjuvant to boost immune response, the authors suggest that AS01 itself may contribute to the lower dementia risk.The team analyzed electronic health record (EHR) data to determine whether AS01 has a role in reducing the risk of dementia seen with the AS01-adjuvanted shingles vaccine Shingrix by comparing it with the AS01 RSV vaccine Arexvy and with the flu vaccine. Shingrix has been linked to a lower risk of dementia than the live vaccine, Zostavax, which was discontinued in the United States because Shingrix is more effective against infection in both men and women, the study authors noted."There is growing evidence that vaccination against shingles (also known as herpes zoster, which is caused by reactivation of the varicella-zoster virus) protects against dementia, with some studies showing a stronger effect in females," they wrote.
RFK’s New Vaccine Committee Has Voted—Now What? Debriefing and looking ahead with Dr. Katelyn Jetelina and Dr. Jeremy Faust.- A recording from Jeremy Faust, MD's live video Closed captions (㏄) and a transcript option can be found beneath the video playback control bar above. (Note: this session is free for everyone, thanks to recent upgrades that make this all possible. If you’d like to support this work, click here.) -- Jeremy Faust, MD and Katelyn Jetelina - Along with several colleagues, I watched large portions of this week’s CDC’s Advisory Committee on Immunization Practice (ACIP) so that you didn’t have to. Dr. Katelyn Jetelina and I debriefed afterwards. Our conversation is above. Some adjectives came to mind while watching the meeting: Surreal. Embarrassing. Kafkaesque. In place of seventeen highly respected voting members, all fired by HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy, were seven new characters whose opinions ranged from unhinged (several of the members) to reasonable (mainly voiced by Dr. Cody Meissner).Various members asked questions that revealed incomplete understandings of the legal process around these votes. One member wasn’t sure whether or not she had a conflict of interest. Random conspiracy theories got air time, while vetted scientific materials created by CDC scientists were literally removed from the meeting’s website, after having been posted earlier in the week. Indeed, we learned during the meeting that the CDC’s briefing document on the safety of thimerosal in vaccines was removed because Secretary Kennedy’s office (i.e., RFK Jr. himself) did not approve of it. That of course means that the error-ridden, cherry-picked data in another presentation on the topic by an outside speaker (a longtime RFK Jr. ally) was approved. It was a dystopian nightmare.
7 in 10 US adults would still test for COVID if they suspected infection, survey suggests - Seven in 10 respondents to a 2024 US survey said they would still reach for a home COVID-19 test if they thought they were infected, UMass Chan Medical School researchers report in JAMA Network Open.The team used the Ipsos KnowledgePanel to ask 2009 adults whether they would test and, if not, the reasons for not testing, from October 31 to November 7, 2024. The average participant age was 51.5 years, 51.2% were women, 60.7% were White, 18.0% were Hispanic, and 12.1% were Black. The investigators noted that COVID-19 remains a threat, with the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) estimating 28,000 to 46,000 related US deaths and 230,000 to 390,000 hospitalizations from October 2024 to April 2025."Early identification of infection enables prompt care and steps to reduce spread," they wrote. "Timely initiation of oral antiviral medications is associated with lower hospitalizations, deaths, and long-COVID incidence among adults at high risk." Most participants (70.0%) said they would test if they suspected a COVID-19 infection. Factors tied to intent to test were age older than 60 years, excellent health status, trust in the healthcare system, reliance on data to make health decisions, previous completion of a home test, and Black, Hispanic, or mixed race.The proportion endorsing each reason for not testing were perceived lack of a reason to test (53.6%), a belief that a positive test result wouldn't be useful (30.1%), lack of trust in tests (20.7%), forgetting that testing is an option (19.4%), preference of not knowing the results (9.1%), lack of awareness of where to procure a test (5.8%), inability to pay for testing (4.9%), and other reasons (8.3%).
Cognitive function may wane faster in older hospitalized COVID patients than in uninfected peers -Older hospitalized COVID-19 patients experienced faster cognitive decline than their uninfected counterparts, suggests a study published today in JAMA Network Open. The multicenter Mayo Clinic–led study tracked cognitive function among 3,525 patients enrolled in the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) study and the Collaborative Cohort of Cohorts for COVID-19 Research study from 2016 to 2022. All participants were examined with the ARIC neuropsychologic battery once before the pandemic, and 2,802 were examined with the battery during the pandemic.The average patient age was 80.8 years, 59.1% were women, 78.6% were White, and 21.4% were Black. A total of 8.7% tested positive for COVID-19, and 33.6% of them were hospitalized. In total, 87.5% of participants were vaccinated, although only 55 infected patients were vaccinated before diagnosis. The median interval between baseline and follow-up cognitive evaluation was 2.9 years, and a median of 0.8 years elapsed between date of infection and follow-up. The average annualized decline in global cognitive function was -0.09 standard-deviation units in uninfected participants, similar to that of nonhospitalized infected patients but slower (-0.06) than that of patients hospitalized for COVID-19 (excess change among the infected, -0.01). "Results were similar in a case-only analysis but when removing participants who only self-reported an infection without a second confirmatory source of information, the rate of excess change was modestly greater among infected individuals: -0.03," the study authors wrote. The rates of decline in executive function and memory scores per year were -0.04 and -0.02 among uninfected participants and -0.07 each among hospitalized patients, respectively. Language was unaffected. The respective excess changes in executive function (mental skills to handle daily tasks) and memory scores among hospitalized patients were -0.04 and -0.05. Nonhospitalized infection was not tied to cognitive decline in any domain. Whether SARS-CoV-2 infection triggers pathobiologic processes leading to accelerated cognitive decline distinct from other causes of hospitalization is unclear, they said. "It is possible that the physiological conditions enabling SARS-CoV-2 to progress to a severe state requiring hospitalization are the same conditions that increase susceptibility to accelerated cognitive change," the authors wrote. "Alternately, hospitalization-related factors such as pharmacological treatments, dietary changes, bed rest, or social isolation may contribute to cognitive changes."
Analysis: Pandemic disruptions compounded malaria, mental illness burden -- Yesterday in BMJ, researchers published a new model of COVID-19 pandemic healthcare disruptions, showing that they led to increases in other causes of illness and death, including mental disorders, pediatric malaria cases, and stroke and heart disease in older adults. Recent studies have shown how pandemic disruptions led to a drop in routine immunizations, cancer screenings, and other life-saving medical care. Moreover, funding for tropical-disease prevention and treatment and other healthcare resources shrank during the initial months of the pandemic. Overall, malaria and depression and anxiety saw the biggest increases in the first post-pandemic year.The absolute increases in age-standardized DALYs (disability-adjusted life years) were 97.9 (95% confidence interval [CI], 46.9 to 148.9) per 100,000 for malaria and 1.3 (95% CI, 0.5 to 2.1) per 100,000 for mortality, with relative increases of 12.2% and 12.3%, respectively. Malaria-related DALYs and deaths increased the most in children under five years old. The absolute age-standardized rates of depressive and anxiety disorders increased 618.0 (95% CI, 589.3 to 646.8) per 100,000 and 102.4 (95% CI, 101.3 to 103.6) per 100,000, with relative increases of 14.3% and 15.4%, respectively. Overall, women and young adults aged 15 to 49 experienced a greater burden of mental illness. Heart disease and stroke burden also increased, particularly among individuals aged 70 years and above, with a prevalence of 169.0 (95% CI, 100.8 to 237.1) per 100,000 for ischemic heart disease and 27.0 (95% CI, 14.4 to 39.6) per 100,000 for stroke.
- The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), though it currently has no director, has quietly accepted three vaccine recommendations from the earlier Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices group that voted on the measures at its April meeting. Since then, Health and Human Services (HHS) Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. replaced the board with eight new members, including some who closely ally with his anti-vaccine views. The acceptance of the April recommendations came without an announcement and appears on a CDC web page on ACIP recommendations. The CDC said that on June 25 Kennedy adopted a recommendation that the GSK new pentavalent (five-strain) meningococcal vaccine can be used when the quadrivalent (four-strain) and monovalent (single-strain) B vaccine are indicated at the same visit. Kennedy also adopted ACIP recommendation that adults ages 50 to 59 years old can receive a single dose of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) vaccine if they are at risk for severe RSV disease. The CDC said it will publish a list of clinical considerations that detail conditions that put patients at increased risk for severe disease. Kennedy also adopted guidance for chikungunya vaccines, which recommends Bavarian Nordic's (BN's) new vaccine for use in travelers heading to outbreak areas and those moving to high-risk countries, use of the BN vaccine in potentially exposed lab workers, and use of Valneva's chikungunya vaccine in travelers to outbreak locations and those spending extended time in higher-risk settings.
- The New York Times reported yesterday that Vinay Prasad, MD, MPH, who leads the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) Center for Biologics Evaluation and Research, overruled agency scientists' approval recommendations for broad use of two newer COVID vaccines, Novavax's protein-based vaccine and Moderna's second-generation COVID vaccine. FDA scientists, following an extensive review, had recommended full approval of the Novavax vaccine for anyone ages 12 years and older. But in the middle of May, the FDA announced an approval limited to people ages 65 and older and younger groups with underlying health conditions. FDA scientists weighing in on Moderna's mNexspike vaccine said the new vaccine was slightly more effective than the original version, with a similar safety profile, and could be used in anyone ages 12 and older. But in early June, the FDAannounced that the vaccine was approved only for use in people ages 65 and older and younger people who have health conditions that put them at greater risk for COVID complications.
Catch-up needed after non-COVID vaccination plunges in first 2 pandemic years - Non–COVID-19 vaccination dropped in the first 2 years of the pandemic, raising concerns about potential outbreaks of avoidable diseases, the resurgence of previously controlled diseases, and widening health disparities for people with weakened immune systems, according to a study published inPLOS One.Researchers from the University of Kentucky and Augusta University used clinical records from the American Board of Family Medicine’s PRIME Registry from March 2019 through March 2022 to calculate monthly primary-care visit and vaccination rates among US children and adults."The COVID-19 pandemic caused substantial burdens for patients and our healthcare delivery system," they wrote. "Many patients delayed seeking care for essential medical needs, and providers struggled to deliver services." Relative to before the pandemic, the number of vaccinated participants fell 9.6% among children and 4.2% in adults in pandemic year 1, dropping 19.4% and 14.2%, respectively, the next year. While primary-care visit rates rebounded somewhat, vaccination rates didn't return to baseline. And except for a few months, vaccination rates stayed lower than visit rates. Women, rural residents, and those living in socially deprived areas were the least likely to be vaccinated, and this gap widened throughout the second pandemic year. "These findings underscore the need for targeted outreach and support for rural populations, where structural barriers and limited access to care may compound pandemic-related disruptions," the authors wrote.
Kentucky, Utah report more measles cases --Over the weekend Kentucky reported three more measles cases, all from the same family in Woodford County. None of the individuals were vaccinated, health officials from the state said.Kentucky now has six confirmed measles cases in 2025, following the identification of a measles infection in February in an adult state resident. Officials urged vaccination for all residents, especially school children, noting that, for the 2024-25 school year, only 86.9% of Kentucky kindergartners were fully vaccinated against measles.In other US measles news, Utah has two new measles cases, raising the state total to seven. The two news cases are in unvaccinated people, and at least one of the newly identified infected residents has been linked to other infected people, according to a statement posted on X by the Utah Department of Health and Human Services.
New Mexico, Texas confirm more measles cases - The New Mexico Department of Health (NMDH) today reported eight more measles cases, all from Luna County, where officials last week announced an outbreak at a detection facility in Deming. The new cases push the state’s total, some of which are linked to the large West Texas outbreak, to 94 cases. Last week, health officials announced that five detainees at the facility had tested positive for measles. The facility houses 400 inmates and employs 100 staff. Luna County is in the southwestern corner of the state, and a week before the jail-linked illnesses were reported, the NMDH announced a positive finding in wastewater from the Deming area, hinting that there was at least one undiagnosed case. Meanwhile, the Texas Department of State Health Services today announced three more cases since its last update on June 24, raising the total in the West Texas outbreak to 753 since January. Illnesses have been trending downward since mid-March. Outbreak-linked cases were reported from 36 counties, but now only 2—Gaines and Lamar—have ongoing transmission. In other developments, the Kentucky Cabinet for Health and Family Services said yesterday that an outbreak reported recently in Woodford County has now spread to neighboring Fayette County. Both are located in the central part of the state. Of five cases currently reported from Kentucky, four are linked to the outbreak.
More measles outbreaks put US total within single digits of modern-day record - In its weekly update today, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) reported 40 more measles cases today, boosting the number of infections this year to 1,267, which is just 8 shy of passing the total in 2019, which was the highest since the disease was eliminated in the country in 2000.Though the large outbreak in West Texas has slowed substantially, the number of smaller outbreaks and travel-related cases continues to grow. The CDC this week reported 4 more outbreaks, raising the national total to 27. So far this year, 88% of confirmed cases have been linked to outbreaks. For comparison, the United States had 16 outbreaks for all of 2024. The US measles surge is occurring amid even bigger rises in Canada and Mexico, and all three countries have had large outbreaks fueled by virus spread in Mennonite communities, though health officials warn that outbreaks can affect anywhere pockets of undervaccinated people live. In an update on measles in the Americas yesterday, the Pan American Health Organization (PAHO) said Canada has confirmed 3,170 cases, 1 of them fatal, and Mexico has recorded 2,597 cases, which includes 9 deaths. Canada has the most cases since the country eliminated the disease in 1998; meanwhile, most of Mexico's cases are centered in Chihuahua state. Measles cases in the Americas this year are up 29-fold compared to the same period in 2024, PAHO said. For the region, cases began rising in the third week of the year, peaking in late April will infections concentrated in vaccine-hesitant communities in multiple regions of the Americas. The proportion of cases was highest in children in young adults, but the incidence rate was highest in younger children. Thirty percent of patients were unvaccinated, while vaccination status wasn't known for 65%. The Wyoming Department of Health yesterday announced the state's first case since 2010, which involves an unvaccinated child from Natrona County, which is home to Casper. So far, the source of the child’s infection isn’t known, and the WDH said public exposure may have occurred during the child’s brief visits to a Casper emergency department on June 24 and June 25.. Utah, which recently confirmed its first cases that were followed by more related detections, reported two more infections, raising its total to nine.In Michigan, the Kent County Health Department, located in Grand Rapids, announced a measles case in a young child whose family had recently traveled internationally. It added that the new case marks the county's second case of the year and the 17th to be confirmed in Michigan.Meanwhile, Florida has reported its third case of the year, involving a young adult from Leon County, home to Tallahassee, who was exposed during travel outside the country in June, according to a local media report that cited the Florida Department of Health.The Kansas Department of Health and Environment today reported 3 more cases, all linked to an outbreak in the southwest of the state that was tied to the large West Texas outbreak. The state now has 83 cases, 80 of them linked to the main outbreak that spans 11 counties.
FDA upgrades blueberry recall to highest risk level -The Food and Drug Administration (FDA) upgraded a blueberry recall this week to the highest risk level amid concerns of contamination. The FDA raised the recall of 400 boxes that weigh 30 pounds to Class I.The blueberry recall, which took place June 9, was initiated after Alma Pak International LLC of Alma, Ga. received a positive result of listeria monocytogenes during routine testing, according to the FDA. FDA’s Class I classification is a “situation in which there is a reasonable probability that the use of or exposure to a violative product will cause serious adverse health consequences or death.” The firm shipped the blueberries to one customer in North Carolina. The number of the recall is H-0204-2025.Listeria is a bacteria that can contaminate “many foods,” according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). People who consume those foods can be infected with the bacteria. The infections are rare, but can be serious, the CDC noted. Pregnant women, newborns, adults older than 65 years and people with weak immune systems can be especially harmed if infected, according to the CDC.
Livestock manure contains antibiotic resistance genes, posing health threat, global study finds - - Livestock manure around the globe is packed with antibiotic resistance genes (ARGs) that could threaten human health, according to a new study in Science Advances. The study was published by Chinese and US researchers, who sampled 4,017 manure specimens from pigs, chickens, and cattle in 26 countries over 14 years.Overall, the searchers found a substantial reservoir of known (2,291 subtypes) and latent ARGs (3,166 subtypes). The detections conferred potential resistance to 30 antibiotic classes.Chicken manure showed the highest ARG diversity, followed by swine and cow manure. On average, chicken and swine samples contained 2.0 times the ARGs of that found in human feces, 2.5 times of that in sewage, and 18.3 times of that in soil. "This research shows that what happens on farms doesn't stay on farms," said James Tiedje, PhD, one of the authors of the study, in a press release from Michigan State University. "Genes from manure can make their way into the water we drink, the food we eat and the bacteria that make us sick."The authors found that swine manure diversity in Asia (246 ARGs) and abundance (3.93 copies per cell) was significantly higher than on other continents, specifically for aminoglycoside and tetracycline resistance gene abundance. The chicken manure diversity was highest in the European samples, despite Scandinavian countries having some of the lowest rates of detection. North America had the highest detections among bovine manure samples, with Canada having the most ARGs detected, followed by the United States."As the world's largest pig producer, accounting for more than 50% of the global pig population, China displays higher bacterial abundance, diversity, and RSs [risk score] in pig manure than all other countries," the authors wrote. "As the leading beef producers, the United States and Brazil exhibit notably higher resistome abundance and diversity in cattle manure compared to other countries, with the exception of Canada."
- The European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) today announced that it has launched a new series of weekly updates on mosquito-borne illnesses and has published guidance on locally acquired Aedes-borne diseases in Europe. The number of locally acquired dengue infections has been increasing over the past few years, with West Nile virus infections reported from 19 countries, which the ECDC said reflects the growing geographic spread and public health impact of the diseases. Aedes albopictus is established in 369 regions of Europe, up from 114 regions a decade ago. So far this year, France has reported six outbreaks of locally acquired chikungunya on the mainland with illness onsets in May and June, which the ECDC said is an unusually early start to the season, an example of how changing environmental conditions are leading to longer and more favorable transmission periods.
- After suspending livestock imports at the southern border in May as part of the response to the rapid northward spread of New World screwworm (NWS), the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) yesterday announced a phased reopening, following extensive collaboration between the USDA Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS) and its counterparts in Mexico on surveillance, detection, and eradication. NWS can lead to cattle loss and sporadic infections in people. The phased reopening applies to cattle, bison, and equines and will begin in southern ports starting in Douglas, Arizona.
Cambodia confirms 2 more H5N1 avian flu infections -Cambodia's health ministry yesterday reported two more human H5N1 avian flu cases, part of a spike in cases in June, with six cases reported so far this month.Health officials announced the two cases on the ministry's Facebook page, and the notice was translated and posted byAvian Flu Diary, an infectious disease news blog. The patients are a 46-year-old woman and her 16-year-old son who are neighbors of the country's last publicly announced case, a 41-year-old woman from a village and Siem Reap province in the northwestern part of the country. The illnesses were detected as part of the investigation into the last case.The two newly confirmed patients are in stable condition and are being treated with oseltamivir (Tamiflu). Investigators found sick and dead chickens in the patients' home, the neighbor's home, and in the village. The patients had handled and cooked the chickens. Most cases in Cambodia involve contact with poultry or contaminated environments, but a recent illness without known poultry exposure was reported in the middle of June.The ministry listed the two illnesses as the country's ninth and tenth cases of the year, six of them fatal, though it has only publicly detailed nine cases this year. The latest cases are part of an overall rise in H5N1 cases in Cambodia since last 2023, after the country went nearly a decade without cases.Erik Karlsson, PhD, with the National Influenza Center and Pasteur Institute in Cambodia, said on Xyesterday that the newest cases follow a pattern of direct exposure to poultry, such a preparing or handling sick birds. He said the recent cases involve a reassortant 2.3.2.1e genotype that has been detected in both humans and poultry since 2023. The novel reassortant contains genes from the older clade 2.3.2.1c virus known to circulate in Cambodia since 2014 and genes from the global clade 2.3.4.4b virus.
H5N1 sickens another in Cambodia -Cambodia’s health ministry today reported a seventh human H5N1 avian flu case for the month of June, a 36-year-old woman from the same province as the last three cases, part of an ongoing rise in illnesses with several linked to a new reassortant. The new confirmation lifts the country’s total to 11 cases so far this year, of which 7 were reported in June. Like the most recently reported cases, the woman is from Siem Reap province in the central part of the country, according to a health ministry Facebook announcement translated and posted by Avian Flu Diary, an infectious disease news blog. Officials, however, said she lives in a different village than the most recent three cases, a woman and her teenaged son and their neighbor, a 41-year-old woman. The woman’s village is nearly two miles from the village where the other patients live. The latest patient is currently receiving treatment in an intensive care unit. An investigation found that she had sick and dead chickens at her home and had touched and buried them. Similar poultry contact has been noted for most Cambodian patients, among whom the infections are often severe or fatal.Cambodia said 11 cases have been reported this year, but only 10 have apparently been publicly announced. A few more details surfaced today about the unannounced case, which appears to be a 19-month-old boy from Takeo province who died from his infection, according to a line list in a weekly avian flu update from Hong Kong’s Centre for Health Protection (CHP). The group said the case was reported on June 30.Also, a weekly avian flu update from the World Health Organization (WHO) Western Pacific region office said the boy’s infection was one of two from Takeo province for the week ending June 26 and that his illness onset date was June 7.
Cambodia confirms 12th H5N1 avian flu infection of the year - Cambodia's health ministry today announced another human H5N1 avian flu case of the year, involving a 5-year-old boy from Kampot province who is hospitalized in the intensive care unit, according to a Facebook statement translated and posted by Avian Flu Diary, an infectious disease news blog. The country has reported an uptick in human cases since late 2023, but illnesses have accelerated recently, with 9 reported since early June and 12 so far in 2025. In the latest case, investigators found that the boy's family had a flock of 40 chickens, a few of which were sick or had died. The boy reportedly played with the chickens every day. Kampot province is in the far southern part of Cambodia.H5N1 is known to circulate in Cambodian poultry, and a new reassortant is circulating that contains genes from an older Cambodian clade and genes from the global 2.3.4.4b clade. Human cases in Cambodia typically involve contact with poultry, and illnesses involving the older clade or the new reassortant are often severe or fatal.
Kavanaugh objects as Supreme Court turns away California pig welfare law challenge--The Supreme Court on Monday turned away a second bite at the apple to review California’s law requiring pork sold in the state to come from pigs raised with sufficient living space. Justice Brett Kavanaugh indicated he would’ve taken up the case, but neither he nor the majority explained their reasoning, as is typical. Two years ago, the court upheld the law in response to a challenge from national pork and farmers groups. But those groups conceded certain legal arguments, and the Iowa Pork Producers Association hoped to pick up the mantle. Passed by California voters in 2018, Proposition 12 prohibits pork sold in the state if the breeding pig had less than 24 square feet of usable floor space. Industry groups say the law effectively requires farmers nationwide to comply given California’s size, and they’ve also criticized the standard as arbitrary.
Appalachians, older women at higher risk for HPV-linked cancer, studies suggest --Two new observational studies highlight the outsized burden of cancer associated with human papillomavirus (HPV) among both male and female Appalachians and older women in China. For the first study, published this week in JAMA Network Open, University of Kentucky investigators mined the US Cancer Statistics Incidence Analytic Database. The goal was to estimate the incidence and trends in HPV-related cancers in the Appalachian region of the United States (central and southern sections of the Appalachian Mountains in the East) and nationally from 2004 to 2021. Such cancers include squamous cell cancers of the oropharynx, anus, vulva, vagina, and penis, as well as cervical cancer. "Poor socioeconomic conditions and corresponding health disparities have historically characterized the Appalachian region of the US," the study authors wrote. "Low uptake of the human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccine and high rates of cervical cancer have been observed in the region; however, a comprehensive assessment of HPV-associated cancer in Appalachia has not been performed." From 2017 to 2021, 23,649 new cases of HPV-associated cancer—with 54.7% of them in women—were diagnosed among Appalachian residents (14.3 cases per 100,000 people), 16% higher than among other US residents (12.4 per 100,000; incidence rate ratio [IRR], 1.16). Except for vaginal cancer and male anal cancer, rates of cancers at all other sites were higher among Appalachians, with the greatest disparity in vulvar cancer (IRR, 1.44, or 44% higher). From 2004 to 2021, HPV-related cancer rates also rose significantly faster in Appalachia than elsewhere in the country (average annual percentage change, 1.3% vs 0.7% per year), with the most pronounced trend difference in penile cancer (2.1% faster in Appalachia). The highest rates of HPV-linked cancer per 100,000 people were noted in north central and central Appalachia (both 16.9). The second study, published this week in Gynecology and Obstetrics Clinical Medicine, involved 2.2 million women 65 years and older in China.The researchers analyzed cervical cancer screening data from Shenzhen, China, from 2017 to 2023 to determine the distribution of high-risk HPV, the prevalence of cervical cancer of grade 2 or higher (CIN2+), and the link between the two in older women and in those younger than 65 years. CIN2+ is the presence of moderately abnormal cells in the cervical lining; it may resolve on its own or progress to more serious abnormalities or cervical cancer without treatment.The average patient age was 40 years, roughly 2% had been vaccinated against HPV, and 1% were aged 65 and older. Although most clinical guidelines recommend stopping cervical-cancer screening in women aged 65 and older who always had normal pap smear results, the authors noted rising global cases in this age-group. In 2022 alone, 157,182 new cases and 124,269 deaths occurred among older women, according to the World Health Organization.The vast majority of women (92%) tested negative for high-risk HPV genotypes, while about 2% tested positive for HPV16/18, and just under 6% were infected with other genotypes. Older women were more likely than their younger counterparts (23% vs 16.5%) to be infected with several types of HPV and to have abnormalities detected on screening (7% vs 4%).Likewise, the proportion of CIN2+ abnormalities picked up during colposcopy (examination of the cervix, vagina, and vulva) was higher in the older age-group (14% vs 9%). In addition, CIN2+ detection was substantially lower in the older women than in the younger age-group (58 vs 3,320). And cancer was detected in older women at a much lower rate than in their younger peers.
Air pollution may be raising risk of lung cancer in ‘never-smokers’: Study -Exposure to air pollution, other contaminants and traditional herbal medicines may be contributing to the development of lung cancer in people who have little or no history of smoking, a new study has found. Contact with these substances can be linked to the same genetic mutations that are associated with smoking and that promote lung cancer development, according to the study, published Wednesday in Nature.“We’re seeing this problematic trend that never-smokers are increasingly getting lung cancer, but we haven’t understood why,” said co-senior author Ludmil Alexandrov, a professor of bioengineering and cellular and molecular medicine at the University of California, San Diego, in a statement.Even as tobacco use has plunged in many parts of the world, lung cancer in individuals who have never smoked is proportionally on the rise, the researchers noted. Those effects, they noted, are particularly pronounced in women of Asian ancestry and are more prevalent in East Asia than in Western nations.Although previous research has identified an epidemiological link between air pollution and link cancer in never-smokers, the current study authors went a step further in establishing a genomic reason behind this phenomenon. To do so, they analyzed lung tumors from 871 never-smokers in 28 regions with varying levels of air pollution, across Africa, Asia, Europe and Norther America. Utilizing whole-genome sequencing, the scientists identified specific patterns of DNA mutations — or “mutational signatures” — that serves as molecular fingerprints for past exposures responsible for changes in DNA. After combining their genomic data with satellite and ground-level pollution measurements of fine particulate matter, they were able to estimate the long-term exposure levels of their participants.The scientists found that never-smokers living in more polluted environments developed much more mutations in their lung tumors — especially the types of mutations that directly drive cancer development. These individuals also showed more mutational signatures linked to cancer, per the study. This cohort of participants demonstrated a 3.9-fold surge in mutational signature that is typically linked to tobacco smoking. Meanwhile, the scientists also determined that the more air pollution a person endured, the more tumors were found in their lungs. These tumors also had shorter telomeres — the protective caps on the ends of chromosomes — a warning sign of accelerated cellular aging.
SC river the 'most contaminated' from dangerous forever chemicals, study finds -When researchers completed a national study of hazardous forever chemicals recently, they found that a South Carolina river had higher levels of pollution from the toxins than any other waterway they examined across the country. It was a troubling discovery that potentially threatens public health for those who eat fish from the Pocotaligo River in Sumter and Clarendon counties, as well as rivers downstream. It also raises concerns about the Pocotaligo River if it is ever sought as a source for drinking water. The report, by the Waterkeeper Alliance environmental organization, says the prime suspect in the pollution is an aging wastewater treatment plant that serves the city of Sumter. The plant receives wastewater from nearly a dozen industries that may be handling and releasing the chemicals, formally known as PFAS, the report said. Those include metal coating industries, plastics businesses, chemical manufacturers and textile businesses, the report said. Other possible sources of the PFAS contamination include military installations. Shaw Air Force Base is known to have released forever chemicals that polluted groundwater at nearby mobile home parks. While the Sumter Pocotaligo sewer plant is designed to treat polluted wastewater before releasing it back into the river, its treatment process does not filter out forever chemicals that flow into the plant, according to the report. That's typical of sewer plants across the country, which are designed to handle bacteria pollution and certain other contaminants but not forever chemicals. The stretch of Pocotaligo River examined by the Waterkeeper Alliance below the sewage plant was called "the most contaminated location detected'' in the study of PFAS in rivers in 19 states from California to Connecticut to the Carolinas and Georgia. The river links with the Black River, which like the Pocotaligo, has previously been found with elevated PFAS levels. The Black River meanders through a new state park and to the coast near Georgetown. According to data compiled by the Waterkeeper Alliance in the fall of 2024, a stretch of the Pocotaligo River below the Sumter sewage plant had the highest collective levels of all forever chemicals tested nationally. Total forever chemical levels exceeded 228 parts per trillion in the Pocotaligo. The next highest amounts exceeded 144 parts per trillion in North Carolina's Haw River and 117 parts per trillion in the Santa Ana River of California, the report found. Levels in the Pocotaligo below the sewer plant were more than 100 percent higher than levels of PFAs found in the river above the Sumter treatment plant, the report said. Forever chemicals are a class of toxic compounds that are of increasing concern nationally, as more is learned about their health effects. Exposure to forever chemicals has been linked to certain types of cancer, immune system deficiencies, thyroid problems and other ailments. Once the chemicals get into people's blood, it can take years to expel the toxins. There are thousands of different types of forever chemicals, many of which are toxic. Used in a variety of household products, ranging from non-stick frying pans to food wrappers and water resistant clothing, PFAS compounds do not break down quickly in the environment, thus the name forever chemicals.
‘We thought we’d got the numbers wrong’: how a pristine lake came to have the highest levels of ‘forever chemicals’ on record Holloman Lake in the Chihuahuan desert off the route 70 highway in New Mexico – created in 1965 as part of a system of wastewater catchment ponds for Holloman air force base – is an unlikely oasis. Other than small ponds created for livestock it is the only body of water for thousands of square kilometres in an otherwise stark landscape. However, Witt says there was always something slightly weird about the foam that would form around the edge. “But I only saw that stuff once I knew.” Online it was billed as a “free, no-frills experience” for camping. On weekends, up to 20 people could be seen pitching tents and barbecuing on the southern shore.In 2009, plans were drawn up to construct a pavilion, beach area and nature trails to encourage more people to enjoy the area. But all that changed in 2017 when authorities discovered what was in the water. Since then an alarming picture has been building up of the extent of the chemical contamination at Holloman Lake. Last month,research co-authored by Witt showed the site has the highest Pfas concentration in water and plants ever recorded in peer-reviewed literature. Every part of the ecosystem is saturated in these “forever chemicals”, including the soil, algae, invertebrates, fish and reptiles. Pfas, which stands for ‘per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances’, are a group of thousands of human-made chemicals prized for their water, heat and grease-resistant properties. The same attributes that make them so useful in industrial and consumer products are what make them so bad when they leak into the environment, where they can persist for hundreds of years. Witt’s birdwatching spot turned into a “natural field laboratory” for understanding how forever chemicals affect ecosystems. He stopped going there for the pleasure of watching birds, and shifted to studying the area in his capacity as a professor of biology at the University of New Mexico. “Honestly, I try not to spend too much time there,” he says. “You can take up some of these Pfas compounds through skin contact, and you can breathe them in through the air and dust.” When the Pfas results came back from the lab, Witt assumed it was a mistake. “There were no other analogs that we could find for this level of contamination,” he says. “The orders of magnitude that we were dealing with were absolutely shocking. We thought we were doing something wrong with the converssion of units.” But the numbers were correct. Across 23 bird and mammal species tested, Pfas concentrations averaged tens of thousands of parts per billion, 2024 research found. For comparison, in 2019 thousands of dairy cows in Clovis, New Mexico were culled because their milk was contaminated with less than six parts per billion. The main cause of contamination is the firefighting foams used in training exercises by the US air force at the Holloman site from about 1970. The single most contaminated individual from the 2024 study was a 1994 specimen of a white-footed mouse, showing pollution had been high for decades.
Bipartisan duo takes on EPA with ‘forever chemicals’ bill -Reps. Brian Fitzpatrick and Debbie Dingell introduced bipartisan legislation last week to prevent the Trump administration from rolling back a drinking water regulation for “forever chemicals.”The “PFAS National Drinking Water Standard Act of 2025” would codify into law strict federal limits in drinking water for per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances, or PFAS, a class of man-made substances linked to certain cancers and other human health problems.The EPA rule faces an uncertain future, with Administrator Lee Zeldin having announced plans to revise the regulation and push back the compliance deadline. Zeldin has also repeatedly asked a federal court to pause litigation challenging the rule as the agency evaluates a path forward.Fitzpatrick (R-Pa.), a moderate on environmental issues who has previously supported action to address PFAS contamination, said he introduced the bill because of harms caused by the chemicals in his district. He and Dingell (D-Mich.) are co-chairs of the bipartisan Congressional PFAS Task Force.
Every Dutch person has ‘forever chemicals’ in their blood – Every person in the Netherlands has "forever chemicals" in their blood, according to the country's first national study on the topic. The study, published Thursday, indicates that having per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (known as PFAS) in levels above safety thresholds does not automatically lead to illness."However, it does mean that PFAS can have an effect on the body. For example, the immune system may function less effectively. The effects depend on the amount of PFAS, the duration of exposure, and a person's individual health condition," reads the study, conducted by the Dutch National Institute for Public Health and the Environment, or RIVM.Out of 28 types of PFAS analyzed, the study found that at least seven kinds are present in almost everyone tested. The levels of PFAS were the highest in the regions of Dordrecht and Western Scheldt, due to the nearby chemical plants. RIVM tested 1,500 blood samples taken in 2016 and 2017. The institute said it will also publish a study based on blood samples taken this year, expected to be published in 2026.Earlier this year, RIVM told the Dutch people to stop eating backyard-produced eggs (produced by privately owned chickens rather than bought from shops or markets) due to contamination from PFAS.PFAS are a group of commonly used chemicals that have been linked to a range of health problems, including cancer. They are known as forever chemicals because they don’t break down naturally.
‘Even if we stop drinking we will be exposed’: Parts of France have banned tap water. Is it a warning for the rest of Europe? --One quiet Saturday night, Sandra Wiedemann was curled up on the sofa when a story broke on TV news: the water coming from her tap could be poisoning her. The 36-year-old, who is breastfeeding her six-month-old son CĂ´me, lives in the quiet French commune of Buschwiller in Saint-Louis, near the Swiss city of Basel. But as she watched the news, her safety felt threatened: Wiedemann and her family use tap water every day, for drinking, brushing her teeth, showering, cooking and washing vegetables. Now, she learned that chemicals she had never heard of were lurking in her body, on her skin, potentially harming her son. Three days later, a letter dropped through her door from the local authority. Drinking water was prohibited, it said, for children under two years old, pregnant or breastfeeding women and people with weak immune systems. The same letter was pushed through the letterbox of about 60,000 other people across 11 communes. The supermarket rush began.Saint-Louis is now the site of France’s biggest ever ban on drinking tap water. Its at-risk residents will rely on bottled water until at least the end of the year, when authorities hope water filter systems will be installed. Tests of the local tap water showed levels of Pfas – “forever chemicals” linked to cancer, immune dysfunction and reproductive issues – had reached four times the recommended limit. Shelves were stripped bare as families scrambled to stockpile bottles of water to protect loved ones. The source was a firefighting foam used at the airport since the 1960s, ending only in 2017, according to the joint statement from the local authority and regional health agency. Toxic residues from the foam lingered, filtering through the soil into drinking water and people’s bodies – probably over decades. But the situation in Saint-Louis may be only the beginning of drinking water bans across Europe. In January, the EU will start enforcing new limits on Pfa levels. With more than 2,300 sites in Europe exceeding the new safe limits, experts say the ban in France is merely a precursor of more to come. “I think that we are at the start of the story,” says SĂ©verine Maistre, who lives in Saint-Louis and who used to work in clinical drug trials. She believes that if you look for Pfas, you find them. “Currently we are talking about peaks here and there … [But the chemicals] will be everywhere in France. It will be the same in Germany, in Switzerland, in the UK, and everywhere.”
Common farm fungicide may be contributing to 'insect apocalypse' - A widely-used agricultural chemical sprayed on fruits and vegetables to prevent fungal disease is also killing beneficial insects that play a critical role in pollination and wider ecosystems. New Macquarie University-led researchpublished in Royal Society Open Science, shows chlorothalonil, one of the world's most widely used agricultural fungicides, deeply impacts the reproduction and survival of insects, even at the lowest levels routinely found on food from cranberries to wine grapes. "Even the very lowest concentration has a huge impact on the reproduction of the flies that we tested," "This can have a big knock-on population impact over time because it affects both male and female fertility."The insect species Drosophila melanogaster, commonly called fruit fly orvinegar fly, was used as a laboratory model representing countless non-target insects found in agricultural environments. "D. melanogaster is also at the bottom of the food chain, becoming food for a whole lot of other species," says Dissawa.Unlike major horticultural pests in Australia, such as the Queensland fruit fly (Bactrocera tryoni) and the Mediterranean fruit fly (Ceratitis capitata), D. melanogaster feed on rotting fruit and play an important role in nutrient recycling in agriculture.Scientists exposed D. melanogaster larvae to chlorothalonil amounts matching levels typically found in fruits and vegetables.Even at the lowest dose tested, the flies showed a 37% drop in egg production at their maturity, compared with unexposed individuals."We expected the effect to increase far more gradually with higher amounts. But we found that even a very small amount can have a strong negative effect,"
Invasive carp threaten the Great Lakes, and reveal a surprising twist in national politics --In his second term, President Donald Trump has not taken many actions that draw near-universal praise from across the political spectrum. But there is at least one of these political anomalies, and it illustrates the broad appeal of environmental protection and conservation projects—particularly when it concerns an ecosystem of vital importance to millions of Americans. In May 2025, Trump issued a presidential memorandum supporting the construction of a physical barrierthat is key to keeping invasive carp out of the Great Lakes. These fish have made their way up the Mississippi River system and could have dire ecological consequences if they enter the Great Lakes. It was not a given that Trump would back this project, which had long been supported by environmental and conservation organizations. But two very different strategies from two Democratic governors—both potential presidential candidates in 2028—reflected the importance of the Great Lakes to America. As a water policy and politics scholar focused on the Great Lakes, I see this development not only as an environmental and conservation milestone, but also a potential pathway for more political unity in the U.S. Perhaps nothing alarms Great Lakes ecologists more than the potential for invasive carp from Asia to establish a breeding population in the Great Lakes. Sometimes said to "breed like mosquitoes and eat like hogs," these fish can consume up to 40% of their body weight each day, outcompeting many native species and literally sucking up other species and food sources.Studies of Lake Erie, for example, predict that if the carp enter and thrive, they could make up approximately one-third of the fish biomass of the entire lake within 20 years, replacing popular sportfishing species such as walleyeand other ecologically and economically important species. Originally, the Great Lakes and the Mississippi River were not connected to each other. But in 1900, the city of Chicago connected them to avoid sending its sewage into Lake Michigan, from which the city draws its drinking water.The most complete way to block the carp from invading the Great Lakes would be to undo that connection—but that would recreate sewage and flooding issues for Chicago, or require other expensive infrastructure upgrades. The more practical, short-term alternative is to modify the historic Brandon Road Lock and Dam in Joliet, Illinois, by adding several obstacles that together would block the carp from swimming farther upriver toward the Great Lakes. Illinois, a state that has voted for the Democratic candidate in every presidential election since 1992, has the most financially at stake in the Brandon Road project because the project requires the state to acquire land and operate the barrier. When Trump issued his order, Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker, a Democrat, postponed the purchase of a key piece of land, blaming the "Trump Administration's lack of clarity and commitment" to the project. Pritzker essentially dared Trump to be the reason for the collapse of the Great Lakes ecosystem and fisheries.Another Democrat, Gov. Gretchen Whitmer of Michigan, a swing state with the most at stake economically and ecologically if these carp species enter the Great Lakes, took a very different approach. She went to the White House to talk with Trump about invasive carp and other issues. She defended her nonconfrontational approach to critics, though she also hid her face from cameras when Trump surprised her with an Oval Office press conference. When Trump visited Michigan, she stood beside him as they praised each other.When Trump released the federal funding in early May, Pritzker kept up his adversarial language, saying he was "glad that the Trump administration heard our calls … and decided to finally meet their obligation." Whitmer stayed more conciliatory, calling the funding decision a "huge win that will protect our Great Lakes and secure our economy." She said she was "grateful to the president for his commitment."Whether coordinated or not, the net result of Pritzker's and Whitmer's actionsdrew praise from both sides of the aisle but was little noticed nationally.
Agencies roll out plans to pare down NEPA reviews - The Trump administration advanced its deregulatory drive Monday as government agencies announced plans to renege on the country’s linchpin environmental law.At issue is the National Environmental Policy Act, designed to require the federal government to consider environmental impacts for permit applications and management of public lands. The 1970 law has been under threat since President Donald Trump’s return as he has rallied to build pipelines, ports and other energy infrastructure to boost domestic production of fossil fuels without environmental reviews.The Department of Energy issued an interim final rule that rescinded all of its NEPA regulations while releasing guidance or “implementing procedures” in their place. Energy Secretary Chris Wright said Trump promised to speed up the permitting process for massive infrastructure projects.
Trump plan to cut disaster aid could harm local economic growth - President Donald Trump’s plan to cut federal disaster aid could endanger economic growth in hard-hit communities by delaying or preventing their recovery, a recent report by a leading global analytics firm says. S&P Global Ratings, whose reports are targeted at investors and financial markets, warned of significant financial consequences if Trump shifts the costs of disaster recovery from the federal government to states, counties and municipalities. Trump’s plan “could have both near- and long-term effects on state and local government credit, including on financial performance, reserves and liquidity, economic growth, and debt and liabilities,” S&P said.“We could see material credit weakening in the absence of federal support for disaster recovery,” the report added, referring to states and localities that could have their credit ratings lowered due to new financial instability.
Homes destroyed near Kadoka as tornadoes rip through South Dakota and Minnesota, U.S. - Multiple tornadoes ripped through South Dakota and Minnesota on June 28, 2025, causing widespread damage. Over 50 000 customers were left without power as the storms ripped through the region. At least 15 tornadoes were reported across Minnesota, South Dakota, and North Dakota on June 28 as severe storms passed through the region. Eight tornadoes were reported in Minnesota, six were reported in South Dakota, and one was reported in North Dakota. While the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) only received 15 tornado reports, more tornadoes are likely to have touched down and are yet to be confirmed. The storms caused widespread damage in the affected areas, with the Kadoka Volunteer Fire Department (KVFD) reporting significant damage to multiple structures near Kadoka, South Dakota. “Tornado damage south of Kadoka. Several structures were destroyed. Some minor injuries have been reported. Our thoughts are with those that have been impacted,” said the KVFD. The Oglala Sioux Tribe Department of Public Safety (OST DPS) also confirmed the tornado touchdown south of Kadoka, reporting that the tornado destroyed multiple homes in the area. The path of the tornado reportedly started from the Whiteriver Bridge and headed southeast approximately 5 to 6 km (3 to 4 miles). In Minnesota, a radar confirmed tornado touched down just before 00:30 local time (LT), on Sunday near Victoria. Officials reported downed trees blocking State Highway 7 near Rolling Acres Road and Minnewashta Parkway. The highway remained closed in that area overnight. Before the apparent touchdown in Victoria, a trained weather spotter reported a tornado on the ground near Hydes Lake, northeast of Norwood Young America, at about 00:15. Xcel Energy and other utilities, combined, reported more than 50 000 customers without power early Sunday — most of those in the western Twin Cities metro area. The number had dropped to about 33 000 as of 19:00 LT on Sunday morning.
Mediterranean set new June temperature high on Sunday: French weather service The Mediterranean Sea on Sunday hit its warmest temperature on record for June at 26.01 degrees Celsius, said a French weather service scientist, citing data from EU monitor Copernicus. "We have never measured such a high daily temperature in June, averaged over the basin, as Sunday," said Thibault Guinaldo, a researcher at the Center for Satellite Meteorology Studies under Meteo-France. At present, sea surface temperatures in the Mediterranean are 3C higher than average for the same period compared to 1991-2020, with spikes exceeding 4C around the French and Spanish coasts, he added. "Given the week we're going to have in terms of weather conditions, unfortunately it's not going to get any cooler," Guinaldo said. It comes as Europe swelters through summer's first major heat wave, with Spain and Portugal setting new temperature highs on Monday as France, Italy and Britain also sizzled. The oceans are a vital regulator of Earth's climate, absorbing some 90% of the excess heat in the atmosphere caused by humanity's burning of fossil fuels. The Mediterranean region is warming faster than the global average and scientists say that climate change is making marine heat waves more frequent and powerful. Since 2023, there have been consistent waves of abnormally high temperatures. The Mediterranean hit a new all-time high temperature of 28.47C in August 2024, blitzing the previous record set in July 2023. The basin is also cooling much more slowly during the winter months: every year since 2023 has experienced well above average temperatures between October and April, said Guinaldo. This has prolonged extreme conditions year round that harm sea life, reduce fish stocks and whip-up stronger storms that make landfall with devastating consequences.
Record marine heatwave pushes Mediterranean Sea surface temperatures to 30°C (86°F) off Spain - -- Sea surface temperatures in the western Mediterranean Sea reached up to 30 °C (86 °F) in early July 2025, with anomalies of 5–6 °C (9–10.8 °F) above average under strong to severe marine heatwave conditions. Sea surface temperature anomaly map for the week 29 June to 5 July, 2025. European Zone. Credit: Mercator Ocean International. Strong to severe marine heatwave conditions are ongoing in the western Mediterranean Sea as of July 5, with some localized regions experiencing extreme anomalies. Mean sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are currently around 26 °C (78.8 °F), exceeding the 1982–2023 climatological norm by 3–6 °C (5.4–=-10.8 °F). SSTs off the coast of Spain have reached 30 °C (86 °F), a record high for this early in the summer. The Balearic, Ligurian, and Tyrrhenian Seas are registering widespread anomalies of 5–6 °C (9–10.8 °F) above baseline. By contrast, the eastern Mediterranean has shown slight weakening of anomalies but remains elevated. The Copernicus Marine Service forecasts continued severe marine heatwave intensity in the western basin. Models indicate that the situation may persist through mid-July. This warming poses significant threats to marine ecosystems, including coral reefs, mussel beds, sea grasses, and plankton populations, many of which are sensitive to small temperature shifts. Researchers report disrupted reproductive cycles, increased mortality, and structural ecological changes. Sea surface temperature anomaly map for the week 29 June to 5 July, 2025. European Zone. Credit: Mercator Ocean International Sea surface temperature anomaly map for the week June 29 to July, 2025. European Zone. Credit: Mercator Ocean International Beyond ecological damage, warm seas influence atmospheric conditions. Elevated SSTs enhance moisture content in the air, increase surface humidity, delay nighttime cooling, and heighten the risk of convective rainfall and inland flooding months after.
A heat wave covers much of Europe and higher temperatures are on the way (AP) — A heat wave covered much of Europe on Monday, with a record-hot first day of play at Wimbledon and high winds fanning forest fires in Turkey. Heat warnings were issued for parts of Spain, Portugal, Italy, Germany and the U.K., with new highs expected on Wednesday before rain should bring respite to some areas. “Extreme heat is no longer a rare event — it has become the new normal,” U.N. Secretary-General AntĂłnio Guterres tweeted from Seville, Spain, where temperatures hit 42 degrees Celsius (108 degrees Fahrenheit). He called for action to fight climate change, saying “the planet is getting hotter & more dangerous.” Dr. Hans Kluge, head of the World Health Organization’s Europe office, warned in a statement that the scorching heat “silently threatens the people who need protection most: older adults, children, outdoor workers and anyone living with chronic health conditions.” Portuguese authorities issued a red heat warning for seven of 18 districts as temperatures were forecast to hit 43 C (109F). Spain’s national weather service said no relief from the first heat wave of the year is expected until Thursday. Sunday’s national average of 28 C (82F) set a new high temperature for June 29 since records were started in 1950. In France, where air conditioning remains relatively rare, authorities were taking extra effort to care for homeless and elderly people. Misting stations doused passers-by along the River Seine in Paris. France’s first significant forest fires of the season consumed 400 hectares (988 acres) of woods Sunday and Monday in the southern Aude region. Water-dumping planes and some 300 firefighters were mobilized, the regional emergency service said. In Turkey, forest fires forced the temporary closure of the airport in Izmir, the state-run Anadolu Agency reported. Authorities evacuated four villages as a precaution, the Forestry Ministry said. Firefighters battled a blaze that broke out Monday near residential areas in Hatay province, near the border with Syria, that prompted 1,500 people to evacuate. In Italy, the Health Ministry put 21 cities under its “red” alert, which indicates “emergency conditions with possible negative effects” on healthy, active people as well as others. Regional governments in northwestern Liguria and southern Sicily put restrictions on outdoor work. There were torrential rains in the north, and parts of Bardonecchia near Turin were covered in sludge after the Frejus river burst its banks. RAI state television said one person was killed. Britain’s national weather service said the Wimbledon tennis tournament was facing what could be its hottest start, with temperatures just under 30 C (85F). Tournament rules allow players to take a 10-minute break when the heat goes above 30.1 C mid-match. Temperatures in southern Germany were forecast as high as 39 C (102F) on Wednesday. Some towns and regions imposed limits on how much water can be taken from rivers and lakes.
Southern Europe roasts as temperatures soar- Spain and Portugal reported record temperatures Monday as Italy and France braced for several more days of a punishing heat wave that has gripped southern Europe and Britain, sparking health and wildfire warnings. The summer's first major heat wave has scorched countries along the Mediterranean's northern coast, leading authorities to urge people to seek shelter and protect the most vulnerable. "This is unprecedented," said France's ecology transition minister, Agnes Pannier-Runacher, as Paris and 15 other departments were placed on "red alert," the highest weather warning level. Ambulances stood ready near tourist hotspots as experts warned that such heat waves, intensified by climate change, would become more frequent. Firefighters were also on standby after blazes broke out Sunday in France, Turkey and Italy, fed by the heat and strong winds. Cities are offering different ways to stay cool, from free swimming pools in Marseille to free guided tours for the elderly in air-conditioned museums in Venice. Temperatures in southern Spain soared to 46 degrees Celsius (115 degrees Fahrenheit) on Saturday, a new record for June, the national weather agency said on Monday. The Mediterranean Sea itself was warmer than usual, recording a new June high of 26.01 degrees Celsius on Sunday, according to French weather service scientist Thibault Guinaldo, citing data from EU monitor Copernicus. Portugal's national meteorological agency said Monday the temperature had reached 46.6 degrees in Mora on Sunday, which experts cited by local media said was a new June record. Seven regions in central and southern Portugal, including the capital Lisbon, were placed on red alert for the second day running Monday, with fire warnings in many forest areas. In Italy, images posted by local media showed people running into the sea at a beach resort in Baia Domizia near Naples, as flames tore through pinewoods behind them. "I have never experienced anything like this, we were surrounded by flames at least thirty meters high, smoke everywhere," the mayor of nearby Cellole, Guido di Leone, wrote on Facebook. In France, the heat wave is due to peak on Tuesday and Wednesday. No such luck for Italy, where the sizzling temperatures will continue to the end of the week and beyond, according to Antonio Spano, founder of the ilmeteo.it meteorological website. Authorities have issued red alerts for 18 cities across the country over the next few days, including Rome, Milan, Verona, Perugia and Palermo
Europe on high alert as surprise early heat wave creeps north- Schools were partially shut in France, iconic monuments closed to tourists, and cities across Europe put on high alert as a record-breaking early summer heat wave spread across the continent Tuesday.Withering conditions that have baked southern Europe for days crept northward where such extremes are much rarer, with Paris on "red alert" and high temperature warnings issued in Belgium, Switzerland and Germany.Tens of thousands of people have died in Europe during past heat waves, prompting authorities to issue warnings for old and young, the sick, and others vulnerable to what experts call a "silent killer."Scientists said it was unusual for such heat to hit Europe this early in the season, but that human-caused climate change from burning fossil fuels was making these once-rare events far more likely.Records have tumbled, with France and Portugal experiencing their highest-ever single-day temperatures in June, Spain its warmest June, and the Netherlands its hottest opening day of July.In England, the weather service said it was the hottest June since records began in 1884.The Mediterranean Sea recorded a new June high of 26.01 degrees Celsius on Sunday, just the latest abnormal marine heat wave in the basin, harming sea life and turbocharging storms.The summit of the Eiffel Tower was shut for a second straight day, and was due to remain closed on Wednesday.On Tuesday in Brussels, the city's Atomium monument, famed for its giant stainless steel balls, was exceptionally shut as temperatures reached 37 degrees Celsius (98 degrees Fahrenheit). Under scorching skies, Paris imposed its first "red alert" in five years, empowering officials to limit or ban sporting events, festivals and school outings for children.The heat is expected to peak on Tuesday, with Paris facing highs of 38C, but authorities have extended the alert into Wednesday. Across France, the government said it expected nearly 1,350 schools to be partially or completely shut, with teachers complaining that overheated and unventilated classrooms were making students unwell. Authorities are fanning out to check on the elderly, chronically ill and the homeless. As far north as the Netherlands, some regions were placed on the second-highest alert on Tuesday, with temperatures forecast to reach 38C.Schools in Rotterdam and across West Brabant province adopted "tropical schedules" to ensure students started and finished earlier to avoid the worst of the day's heat. In Germany, temperatures could peak at 40C on Wednesday.In Spain and Portugal, where highs of 46C were recorded in some locations over the weekend, a level of respite was expected, though temperatures could still exceed 40C in parts.
Early-summer heatwave claims 8 lives across Europe - - YouTube video - At least eight people have died across Spain, France, and Italy as an early-summer heatwave swept across Europe in late June and early July 2025, breaking temperature records and prompting red alerts and emergency responses. An intense heatwave affecting large parts of Europe since late June 2025 has caused at least eight confirmed fatalities and led to widespread public health risks, wildfires, infrastructure disruption, and economic concerns. In Spain, two individuals died during a wildfire in the eastern region of Catalonia, which consumed approximately 40 km² (15 mi2) of land. Spain recorded its hottest June on record as temperatures surpassed 46 °C (114.8 °F) in some areas, including Portugal. In France, two heat-related deaths were confirmed. More than 300 individuals required hospitalization for heat stress. 1 350 schools were closed nationwide, and the summit of the Eiffel Tower was shut due to extreme heat. The national meteorological agency issued red heat alerts across several regions. In Italy, two men over 60 died on Sardinian beaches. Red warnings were in effect in 18 cities, including Rome and Milan. The regions of Emilia‑Romagna and Lombardy enacted temporary bans on outdoor work during peak daytime heat. Germany experienced temperatures of up to 40 °C (104 °F), marking its highest reading in 2025 so far. Forest fires occurred in Brandenburg and Saxony. In Switzerland, high river water temperatures forced the Beznau nuclear plant to halt one reactor and reduce output from another. Mudslides triggered by localized storms disrupted transport in alpine areas of Austria and Germany. The current event is being driven by a persistent “heat dome” associated with warming air masses from North Africa. France and Italy have issued work restrictions and distributed public health advisories. Germany has opened public pools and shade shelters. The nuclear sector has been affected by overheating of river cooling systems, while agriculture and tourism sectors report financial losses.
Japan had hottest June on record: weather agency- Japan experienced its hottest June on record, the weather agency said Tuesday, as climate change prompts sweltering heat waves across the globe. "Japan's monthly average temperature in June was the highest for the month since statistics began in 1898," said the Japan Meteorological Agency. With strong high-pressure systems in June staying in the region, the average monthly temperature was 2.34 degrees Celsius higher than the standard value, the agency said. The coastal water temperature near Japan also measured 1.2 degrees Celsius higher than usual, tying with June 2024 for the highest since data collection began in 1982, the agency said. The body also had a further warning that is becoming routine for Japanese residents: "The next month is expected to continue to bring severe heat throughout the country." The announcement came as scientists say human-induced climate change is making heat wave events more intense, frequent and widespread. Brutal heat waves are currently sweeping Europe from France to Greece, while global footballers' union FIFPro has called for longer half-time breaks at next year's World Cup to mitigate the effects of extreme heat. Japanese meteorologists have warned against drawing a direct link between specific weather conditions, like higher temperatures in a specific time, with climate change. But they have observed a changing climate over many years that is causing unpredictable weather phenomena. Japan remains heavily dependent on imported fossil fuels and has the dirtiest energy mix in the G7, campaigners say. The government has pledged to reduce carbon emissions by 60% by 2035 and by 73% by 2040, against the 2013 standard, with the ultimate aim to achieve carbon neutrality by 2050. Japan's summer last year was the joint hottest on record, equaling the level seen in 2023, followed by the warmest autumn since records began 126 years ago. Experts even warn that Japan's beloved cherry trees are blooming earlier due to warmer climate or sometimes even not fully blossoming because autumns and winters are not cold enough to trigger flowering. The famous snowcap of Mount Fuji was also absent for the longest recorded period last year, not appearing until early November, compared with the average of early October. Last week, the rainy season ended in the western region of Japan, the earliest date on record and around three weeks earlier than usual. Raging typhoons in summers routinely have caused violent floods in Japan while brutal heat waves have resulted in deadly heat strokes among the elderly. Increasingly dry winters have raised the risk of wildfires, with a northern area of Ofunato earlier this year seeing the nation's biggest forest fire in three decades. At the same time, other areas have seen record snowfalls that resulted in fatal accidents, traffic disruption, and higher avalanche risk.
Rescuers evacuate 50,000 as Turkey battles wildfires --Rescuers in Turkey have evacuated more than 50,000 people, mostly from the western province of Izmir, as firefighters battled a string of wildfires, the AFAD disaster agency said Monday. The worst blaze began Sunday in Seferihisar, a forested area 50 kilometers (30 miles) southwest of the resort city of Izmir, spreading rapidly with winds of up to 120 kilometers (75 miles) per hour, officials said. "A total of over 50,000 citizens from 41 settlements have been temporarily relocated to safe areas," AFAD wrote on X, saying 79 people had been affected by smoke and other fire-related issues, none seriously. Of that number, 42,300 were evacuated from Seferihisar, where TV footage showed huge areas of flame raging through forested areas, sending vast clouds of black smoke into the sky. Overnight, around 20 evacuated homes were gutted by the blaze, with only the walls left standing, footage on private TV network NTV showed. Residents in the seaside village of Urkmez had on Sunday felled trees to create firebreaks and protect their homes as the flames advanced, a witness told AFP. "Unfortunately, the wind is continuing to blow very strongly," Agriculture and Forestry Minister Ibrahim Yumakli told reporters on Monday afternoon. The Turkish State Meteorological Service warned about strong winds over the weekend. Yumakli said more than 1,000 people had been drafted in to tackle the blaze with four planes, 14 helicopters and 106 fire trucks. AFAD said another 3,000 residents were evacuated from Manisa, 40 kilometers north of Izmir. Another 1,500 people were forced out of their homes in the southern Hatay region, where four helicopters, 211 fire engines and 540 firefighters were fighting a blaze some 10 kilometers north of the city of Antakya, the governor said. Around 850 others were forced to flee from two other wildfires in northwestern Turkey, AFAD said. Meanwhile, Justice Minister Yilmaz Tunc said on X that one person had been arrested for allegedly starting one of the wildfires in the Izmir area with gasoline. "The suspect is alleged to have set fire to their own residence, (which) subsequently caused a forest fire," he wrote, without giving further details. Since Friday, 263 fires had broken out across Turkey, of which 259 were under control while efforts were ongoing to fight the remaining four, the agriculture and forestry ministry said.
Rapidly spreading wildfire burns 400 ha (990 acres) near Bizanet, Aude, France, forcing A61 closure and evacuations - A rapidly spreading wildfire consumed 400 ha (990 acres) of vegetation near Bizanet in the department of Aude, southern France, between the afternoon of June 29 and the morning of June 30. The fire resulted in the complete closure of the A61 motorway and the evacuation of multiple residential and tourist areas, including a camping site and the historic Abbey of Fontfroide. The fire began around 15:56 local time (LT) on June 29 and was characterized by seven separate ignition points spread along a 12 km (7.5 miles) corridor parallel to the RD613. The fire fronts spread quickly in the direction of Bizanet, driven by extreme heat and dry conditions in the region. Local meteorological conditions recorded temperatures exceeding 40°C (104°F) in nearby Narbonne. In response, more than 600 firefighters were deployed, supported by aerial resources including four Canadair aircraft, four Dash water bombers, and one Dragon 66 helicopter. Ground reinforcements arrived from neighboring departments to support Aude’s Service DĂ©partemental d’Incendie et de Secours (SDIS 11). Despite intense efforts, the fire destroyed six mobile homes and forced the evacuation of 32 people from a camping site near Bizanet. The Abbey of Fontfroide was also evacuated, with 37 individuals relocated as a precaution. In total, approximately 150 residents were evacuated from affected zones, including the Croix-de-Fer residential district and the village center of Bizanet. Traffic on the A61 motorway, a major transit corridor connecting Narbonne and Toulouse, was halted in both directions from 17:00 LT on June 29 until 07:00 LT on June 30. The closure caused significant traffic disruptions across the region, with diversions implemented via local roads. Authorities launched a judicial investigation after identifying the suspected cause of the fire. According to statements from the prefecture and the gendarmerie, the fire is believed to have been started by embers from a still-burning barbecue or brazier being transported in an open trailer. The man responsible, a local resident, was placed in custody and is under investigation for “destruction involontaire par incendie de bois et forĂŞt” (involuntary destruction of forest by fire).
4 hospitalized and nearly 1 500 evacuated as a major wildfire burns through Ierapetra in Crete, Greece - (videos) At least 4 people have been hospitalized and nearly 1 500 people have been evacuated as firefighters continued to engage a major wildfire on the Greek island of Crete on Thursday, July 3, 2025. The wildfire in Crete broke out on Wednesday afternoon, July 2, in the forested area near the municipality of Ierapetra. Emergency services reported that gale force winds in the region have made containment difficult, with the fire’s front extending over 6 km (4 miles). Ad ends in 20 The rapidly expanding blaze is threatening homes, tourist accommodation, and critical infrastructure, including a fuel station in the area. Authorities have ordered the mass evacuation of hotels, rental rooms and homes in the Ferma municipality, as the flames approached the area. The operation is underway with the support of the fire service, police and local volunteers. So far, approximately 1 500 people have been evacuated from surrounding settlements and tourist areas and moved to Ierapetra. Around 200 evacuees are being sheltered in the town’s indoor sports arena. “Three settlements were evacuated and more than 1 000 left their homes. Some were taken to health centers with respiratory problems,” Crete’s deputy civil protection governor, George Tsapakos, told public broadcaster ERT. ERT footage showed a water bomber flying over an area thick with grey smoke. YouTube video Smoke from the fire has stretched as far as Makry Gialos beach, 10 km (6 miles) from Achlia in Lasithi where firefighters were battling the blaze. The main road near the settlement of Agia Fotia has been closed by police, who have urged residents and visitors to avoid all non-essential travel due to hazardous air quality, extreme heat, and falling ash. In the settlement of Agia Fotia, homes and rental properties have been destroyed, and the area is experiencing a power outage, according to local reports. At least four elderly people have been taken to hospital with respiratory problems caused by smoke inhalation. All hospitals in Crete have been placed on alert by health authorities due to the fire. YouTube video “There is still no complete picture of how many houses have been burned”, adding that at the moment “we are waiting for the aerial means” said the Deputy Regional Governor of Lasithi. At least 230 firefighters, along with 46 engines and 4 helicopters, have been deployed to contain the blaze. Firefighters fought to tame several resurgent blazes whipped up by winds, alongside reinforcements from Athens on Thursday fire brigade spokesman Vassilis Vathrakogiannis said. “There are wind gusts in the area, some measuring 9 on the Beaufort scale [75 to 88 km/h (47 to 54 mph)], which are triggering rekindling and hindering firefighting efforts,”
Wolf Fire burns over 470 ha (1 160 acres), forces evacuations in Riverside County, California - The Wolf Fire has burned more than 470 ha (1 160 acres) of brush in Riverside County, California, since igniting on June 29, 2025. The fire remains 0% contained, prompting mandatory evacuations and the deployment of over 300 personnel. The Wolf Fire broke out near the intersection of Old Banning‑Idyllwild Road and Wolfskill Truck Trail shortly after 15:00 local time (LT) on June 29, 2025. According to the California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection (CAL FIRE), the blaze has since consumed 470–472 ha (1 160–1 165 acres) of medium to heavy brush. As of the latest report, containment stands at 0%. Evacuation orders have been issued for communities in and around Banning, including areas north of Poppet Flat Divide Truck Trail, south of Interstate 10, east of Highland Springs Avenue, and west of Old Cabazon Road. 750 residents were notified of mandatory evacuations. Evacuation warnings remain in place for adjacent zones. More than 300 firefighters are engaged in suppression efforts, supported by 70 engines, 3 water tenders, 2 bulldozers, 6 hand crews, and 4 night-flying helicopters. Additional fixed-wing aircraft are on standby. Terrain and weather conditions, hot, dry, and windy, have made containment operations difficult.
Madre Fire explodes to over 14 000 ha (35 500 acres) in one day, becoming California’s largest wildfire of 2025 - (videos) The Madre Fire in California’s San Luis Obispo County ignited around 13:00 LT on July 2, 2025, and burned through 14 370 ha (35 531 acres) by early July 3. Evacuation orders and warnings have been issued for multiple zones as strong winds and high temperatures continue to fuel rapid fire growth. This is the largest wildfire in California in 2025 to date. The Madre Fire ignited around 13:00 local time (LT) on July 2, along State Route 166 near New Cuyama in San Luis Obispo County, California. Initial growth was extreme, expanding from an estimated 40 ha (100 acres) to over 14 370 ha (35 531 acres) within hours, driven by high temperatures, low humidity, and gusty winds. As of 23:43 LT July 2, the fire had burned 14 370 ha (35 531 acres) and was 0% contained, according to CAL FIRE. The fire is burning in a mix of grass and chaparral fuels across federal, state, and private lands, including parts of the Carrizo Plain. The U.S. Forest Service is leading operations under a unified command with CAL FIRE San Luis Obispo Unit and the Bureau of Land Management. Additional support includes Santa Barbara County Fire and crews from Vandenberg Space Force Base. 200 personnel have been deployed, along with at least six air tankers, one very large air tanker (VLAT), and two helicopters conducting water and retardant drops. State Route 166 has been closed eastbound from U.S. Highway 101 near Santa Maria to Perkins Road near New Cuyama due to the fire’s proximity and active suppression activity. Evacuation orders are in effect for zones SLC‑337, SLC‑226, SLC‑338, SLC‑264, SLC‑299, SLC‑265, and SLC‑312. Evacuation warnings have been issued for zones SLC‑358 and SLC‑313. Residents are urged to leave immediately if under an evacuation order and to monitor official sources for updates.
Trump admin extends access to critical DOD weather forecasting dataset - Weather forecasters will have an additional month to tap Defense Department satellite data that is widely relied upon for hurricane forecasting, extending a deadline that would have ended National Weather Service access Monday to the information.The termination of data products from the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program was met with fierce criticism from scientists who said it could diminish hurricane forecasting accuracy just as the 2025 storm season is ramping up.In a statement, NOAA spokesperson Kim Doster said the extension followed a request on Friday from NASA to the removal and to continue processing and distributing data from the DMSP. The administration now expects to decommission DMSP processing no later than July 31, she said.
NOAA to end use of Defense Meteorological Satellite data - Federal authorities say they will discontinue some weather data — but they are delaying the original plan to do so by one month. Last week, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) said it would phase out data from the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program, which has collected weather data for military operations for more than 50 years. “Due to recent service changes, the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) and Navy’s Fleet Numerical Meteorology and Oceanography Center (FNMOC) will discontinue ingest, processing and distribution of all DMSP data no later than June 30, 2025,” the original notice said. “This service change and termination will be permanent,” it added. Rick Spinrad, who led the NOAA under the Biden administration, told The Hill in an email this is a “big deal.” “It is ahead of schedule and is forcing [the National Weather Service] to rush to accept data from DoD’s newest meteorological satellite,” Spinrad said. “That will be a serious challenge and might mean that the National Hurricane Center is without some critical data for the next several weeks/months during hurricane season. It will most likely lead to some degradation to NHC’s track and intensity forecasts,” he said. On Monday, in a new notice, the NOAA said the discontinuation would be delayed by one month, adding that the original decision was made because of a “cybersecurity risk.”“On June 30th, FNMOC had planned to decommission the … system in Monterey to mitigate a significant cybersecurity risk,” it said. “However, late on Friday, June 27th, CNMOC received a request from … NASA to postpone the removal and to continue processing and distributing DMSP data through July 31st.” “FNMOC now expects to decommission DMSP processing no later than July 31st,” it added. The announcements come after a tumultuous few months at the nation’s weather agencies under the Trump administration.The Trump administration fired hundreds of NOAA employees, but its National Weather Service later warned that some offices were “critically understaffed” and began hiring more meteorologists.
Pakistan flash floods, heavy rain kill 45 in just days -- Heavy rain and flash flooding across Pakistan have killed 45 people in just a few days since the start of the monsoon season, disaster management officials said Sunday. The highest toll was recorded in the province of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa that borders Afghanistan, where 10 children were among 21 killed. The disaster management authority said 14 of those victims died in the Swat Valley, where media reported a flash flood swept away families on a riverbank. In Pakistan's most populous province of Punjab, along the frontier with India, 13 fatalities have been recorded since Wednesday. Eight of them were children who died when walls or roofs collapsed during heavy rain, while the adults were killed in flash floods. Eleven other deaths related to the monsoon downpours were recorded in Sindh and Balochistan provinces. The national meteorological service warned that the risk of heavy rain and possible flash floods will remain high until at least Saturday. Last month, at least 32 people were killed in severe storms in the South Asian nation, which experienced several extreme weather events in the spring, including strong hailstorms.
Multiple fatalities confirmed in Texas Hill Country flooding : NPR -- At least 24 people are dead following flooding that slammed Texas Hill Country early Friday morning, according to state officials. At least 20 girls from a Christian summer camp next to the Guadalupe River remain missing. Officials said some of those campers may be stranded and unable to call for help. Texas Governor Greg Abbott said during a news conference Friday night that the state is committing all the necessary resources to continue with a search and rescue mission, including members of the Texas National Guard and state troopers. The governor issued a disaster declaration for several counties in the state's area known as the Hill Country, about 70 miles north of San Antonio. Gov. Abbott said search and rescue missions will continue "in the darkness of the night…seeking for anybody who is not accounted for." He added: "This is a 24/7 effort." At least 237 people have been rescued so far — the majority of them were rescued by helicopters. Texas officials say some of the areas affected remain without power or internet access. At an earlier briefing, Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick said more than 500 responders and 14 helicopters were deployed to find anyone who is trapped in the inundated area. "We have deployed a number of personnel to multiple locations throughout the Texas Hill Country to assist with search and rescue efforts," Patrick said, noting that the region is popular for summer camps, including one for hundreds of girls. He said state efforts' emphasis Friday is to locate unaccounted teenagers. "Within 45 minutes, the Guadalupe River rose 26 feet and it was a destructive flood — taking property and sadly lives," Patrick said. He added that the region got 12 inches or more of rain per hour. The situation may still get worse. Sheriff Larry Leitha said authorities believe the number of fatalities could grow. "This is probably going to be a couple of days' process," Leitha said during the press conference. At a elementary school in Kerrville, TX, which served as a reunification center, hundreds of people waited for news from their relatives. Some parents were able to meet with their children, but some have yet to hear from their kids. That's the case of Tanya Powell. Her 21 year old daughter Ella Rose was still missing. "She was near the camp at a house with three of their friends, they are college seniors in San Antonio. They were here for the weekend and we lost touch with them about 4 a.m. and haven't gotten any word from them," Powell said. One of the summer camps affected, Camp Mystic, is an all-girls Christian summer camp that has been operating in the area for nearly 100 years. On Friday, the National Weather Service issued a hazard weather warning. In a statement, the NWS warned, "Flooding caused by excessive rainfall continues to be possible." The agency said an additional 1 to 3 inches of rain could fall across the region, but that "isolated spots in the Hill Country could see up to 5 inches." The NWS explained the extreme rainfall is being caused by a moist tropical airmass combined with a slow moving storm system in counties across south central Texas. Kerr County officials said the Guadalupe River, which runs through the region, is currently cresting at 39 feet or more — up from about 3 feet before the rainfall. Judge Rob Kelly signed a declaration of disaster, following the devastation to property and loss of life left behind by the severe weather storm. "Suffice it today this has been a very devastating and deadly flood," Kelly said during a Friday morning press conference. Kelly's office said damages will be monumental to both public infrastructure and private properties, with estimates impossible to determine until floodwaters recede.
Live updates: Death toll from Texas flooding rises to 24, search underway for more than 20 Camp Mystic campers unaccounted for | CNN At least 24 people are dead after torrential rain triggered flash flooding in parts of central Texas early Friday, according to officials. More than 20 girls are unaccounted for at Camp Mystic, in Kerr County, which is located along a river that rose more than 20 feet in less than two hours. It “does not mean they are lost,” Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick cautioned. Searches to find those unaccounted for “will continue in the darkness of night,” Gov. Greg Abbott said. Around 237 people have been rescued or evacuated so far, many by helicopter, authorities said. Parts of central Texas saw a month’s worth of rain in just a few hours overnight into Friday, prompting multiple flash flood emergencies. Hunt, a town near Kerrville, received about 6.5 inches in just three hours early Friday, which is considered a one-in-100-years rainfall event for the area. Heavy rain is expected to continue Saturday. The flash floods that swept through Kerrville, Texas, on Friday forced many residents to flee for their lives — some by boat, others via treacherous routes through downed power lines.“We had to drive over live power lines to get out of here because the only other way we could go was underwater,” Candice Taylor told CNN affiliate KENS.Zerick Baldwin also marveled at the intensity and speed of the flooding – while being thankful he canceled plans to camp along the Guadalupe River after fishing.“If I would’ve slept in my truck or something, I would have been gone…The waters came so quickly. If I had stayed, I wouldn’t have even known what hit,” Baldwin told KENS. Search and rescue teams are working through the night in central Texas, trying to locate those who were left stranded or swept away by catastrophic flooding that began early in the morning on the Fourth of July. The fast-rising floods have killed at least 24 people in Kerr County, Texas authorities said in a news conference Friday night. Officials have not provided details about those killed or the total number of people in the county who may be missing. Around two dozen girls from a private Christian summer camp were still unaccounted for Friday night. Camp Mystic is in Hunt, Texas, near the Guadalupe River, which has swelled to its second-highest level on record, according to the National Weather Service. Everyone at about 18 other camps along the river is accounted for, officials said. 237 people had been evacuated or rescued as of late Friday, according to Major General Thomas M. Suelzer with the Texas Military Department. More than two-thirds of those rescues were conducted by helicopter, Suelzer noted. : At least 14 helicopters, 12 drones and over 500 people from various units were rescuing adults and children – some out of trees – in Kerr County on Friday, and Gov. Greg Abbott says search and rescue teams will comb flooded areas “nonstop” Friday into Saturday. Some parents have posted pictures of their children online in the hopes of receiving any information on their whereabouts. Earlier Friday, the mothers of two campers told CNN they were anxiously waiting to find out where their daughters are. President Donald Trump said late Friday his administration is working with Abbott on the response to the deadly flooding. “We’ll take care of them,” Trump told reporters on Air Force One, calling the flooding terrible and shocking. Abbott has issued a disaster declaration.Officials said they were caught off guard by the heavy downpour that led to flash flooding in Texas on Friday.Nim Kidd, chief of the Texas Division of Emergency Management, told a news conference on Friday night that the National Weather Service (NWS) forecast “did not predict the amount of rain that we saw.”It echoed sentiments earlier Friday from Kerr County judge Rob Kelly, who said: “We have floods all the time… We had no reason to believe that this was going to be anything like what’s happened here. None whatsoever.”On Thursday afternoon, the NWS had issued a flood watch that highlighted Kerr County as a place at high risk of flash flooding through the night.A flash flood emergency warning was issued for Kerr County at 4.03 a.m. local time, followed by a “particularly dangerous situation” warning for Kerrville at 5.34 a.m.“Automated rain gauges indicate a large and deadly flood wave is moving down the Guadalupe River,” forecasters wrote.
Texas river flood leaves at least 25 dead in Kerr and Kendall County - The National Guard was deployed in Texas on Friday after a devastating river flood killed at least 25 people and swept away dozens of children at a local Christian camp.Heavy rain on Friday morning caused the Guadalupe River to rise nearly 30 feet in 45 minutes.State officials confirmed Friday night that at least 25 people are dead, including adults and children. Among the deaths, 24 were reported in Kerr County and one was in Kendall County.Between 23 and 25 people remain missing from Camp Mystic, an all-girls private Christian camp along the Guadalupe River, according to officials. The camp had more than 750 attendees.VideoHelicopters and military vehicles were used for evacuations. So far, 237 people have been evacuated, including 167 by helicopter, Major General Thomas Suelzer said when discussing Texas National Guard efforts."Day or night, whatever hour of the day, there will be local officials [and] state officials collaborating together," Texas Gov. Greg Abbott said at a news conference Friday night.The governor said Homeland Secretary Kristi Noem and Interior Secretary Doug Burgum contacted him and offered federal assistance and resources."The federal government is leaning in and wants to assist the community here in the heart of Texas," Abbott said. Abbott wrote earlier on X that the state is directing all available resources to respond to the flood."That includes water rescue teams, sheltering centers, the National Guard, the Texas Department of Public Safety," Abbott wrote. "The immediate priority is saving lives." Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, posted on X asking for prayers."Please pray right now for everyone in the Hill Country, especially Camp Mystic," Cruz wrote on X. "Today, I’ve spoken with Gov Abbott, Lt. Gov Patrick, the head of TDEM & President Trump. Multiple helicopters are performing search & rescue. President [Donald] Trump committed ANYTHING Texas needs."Texas Sen. John Cornyn, R-Texas, wrote: "Our prayers are with the families of those lost and those still unaccounted for in today’s tragic flooding."Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick earlier urged parents of campers to avoid driving to the area, due to impassible roads."I know if it was one of my children, I would be tempted to want to drive there from Houston as well," Patrick said. "Once we're able to get some of those roads clear, when the rain stops, then we have 10 busses ready to go in and pick up the kids, and we'll find a point … where you can be reunited with your child and hug them. Hug them hard, because you know they're frightened."
27 people confirmed dead as flood waters recede in central Texas (Reuters) - Some 27 people, including nine children, have been confirmed dead after flash floods in central Texas, authorities said on Saturday, as rescuers continued a frantic search for survivors including dozens still missing from a girls' summer camp. The sheriff's office in Kerr County, Texas said 800 people had been evacuated from the region as flood waters receded in the area around the Guadalupe River, about 85 miles (137 km) northwest of San Antonio. At least 23 to 25 people from the Camp Mystic summer camp were missing, most of them reported to be young girls. The river waters rose 29 feet rapidly near the camp. The U.S. National Weather Service said that the flash flood emergency has largely ended for Kerr County, the epicenter of the flooding, following thunderstorms that dumped as much as a foot of rain early on Friday. A flood watch, however, remains in effect until 7 p.m. on Saturday from the San Antonio-Austin, Texas, region, with scattered showers expected throughout the day, said Allison Santorelli, a meteorologist with the NWS Weather Prediction Center in College Park, Maryland. A drone view of vehicles partially submerged in flood water following torrential rains that unleashed flash floods along the Guadalupe River in San Angelo, Texas, U.S., June 4, 2025, in this screen grab obtained from a social media video. Patrick Keely/via REUTERS Purchase Licensing Rights, opens new tab U.S. President Donald Trump said the federal government is working with state and local officials to respond to the flooding. "Melania and I are praying for all of the families impacted by this horrible tragedy. Our Brave First Responders are on site doing what they do best," he said on social media. Dalton Rice, city manager for Kerrville, the county seat, told reporters on Friday that the extreme flooding struck before dawn with little or no warning, precluding authorities from issuing advance evacuation orders as the Guadalupe River swiftly rose above major flood stage. "This happened very quickly, over a very short period of time that could not be predicted, even with radar," Rice said. "This happened within less than a two-hour span." State emergency management officials had warned as early as Thursday that west and central Texas faced heavy rains and flash flood threats "over the next couple days," citing National Weather Service forecasts ahead of the holiday weekend. The weather forecasts, however, "did not predict the amount of rain that we saw," W. Nim Kidd, director of the Texas Division of Emergency Management, told a news conference on Friday night.
At least 15 dead as polar air mass brings record low temperatures to Argentina, Chile and Uruguay - -A polar air mass originating from Antarctica brought record low temperatures to Argentina, Chile and Uruguay between June 30 and July 3, 2024, causing at least 15 deaths and prompting emergency shelter activation and gas supply restrictions across the region. (santiago south america satellite image july 3 2025) A strong polar air mass originating from Antarctica swept across southern South America between June 30 and July 3, causing record low temperatures, at least 15 deaths, and widespread emergency measures in Argentina, Chile, and Uruguay. In Argentina, the capital Buenos Aires recorded a minimum temperature of -1.9°C (28.6°F) on July 2, the lowest since 1991, while the coastal city of Miramar experienced snowfall for the first time in 34 years. The Patagonian town of Maquinchao registered -18°C (-0.4°F) on July 1. According to Proyecto 7, a non-governmental organization, at least nine homeless individuals have died in Argentina this winter due to exposure. Increased electricity demand caused extended power outages across Buenos Aires, with some areas left without power for over 24 hours. On July 2, the government suspended gas supplies to industrial users and petrol stations to ensure household access, lifting price controls on gas cylinders on July 3. Uruguay declared a nationwide red alert after six deaths were reported. Authorities forcibly relocated homeless people to emergency shelters. The capital Montevideo recorded a maximum temperature of 5.8°C (42.4°F) on June 30, the lowest since 1967. The government activated emergency protocols to safeguard vulnerable populations. Chile also experienced sharp drops in temperature. The city of Chillán, located 400 km (250 miles) south of Santiago, reported -9.3°C (15.3°F), according to the Chilean Meteorological Directorate. Snow was observed in the Atacama Desert, the world’s driest region, for the first time in a decade. Chilean authorities implemented emergency shelter plans for homeless populations during the coldest period. Climatologists attributed the cold wave to a rare northward movement of polar air from Antarctica. “What happened this week in Chile and the Southern Cone in general is a cold wave caused by an escape of a polar air mass from Antarctica,” said Raul Cordero, climatologist at the University of Santiago.
Snow cloaks Atacama, the world's driest desert - Residents of the world's driest desert, the Atacama in northern Chile, woke up Thursday to a jaw-dropping spectacle: its famous lunar landscape blanketed in snow. "INCREDIBLE! The Atacama Desert, the world's most arid, is COVERED IN SNOW," the ALMA observatory, situated 2,900 meters (9,500 feet) above sea level, wrote on X, alongside a video of vast expanses covered in a dusting of white. The observatory added that while snow is common on the nearby Chajnanator Plateau, situated at over 5,000 meters and where its gigantic telescope is situated, it had not had snow at its main facility in a decade. University of Santiago climatologist Raul Cordero told AFP that it was too soon to link the snow to climate change but said that climate modeling had shown that "this type of event, meaning precipitation in the Atacama Desert, will likely become more frequent." The Atacama, home to the world's darkest skies, has for decades been the go-to location for the world's most advanced telescopes.
'Completely unexpected': Antarctic sea ice may be in terminal decline due to rising Southern Ocean salinity --The ocean around Antarctica is rapidly getting saltier at the same time as sea ice is retreating at a record pace. Since 2015, the frozen continent has lost sea ice similar to the size of Greenland. That ice hasn't returned, marking the largest global environmental change during the past decade.This finding caught us off guard—melting ice typically makes the ocean fresher. But new satellite data shows the opposite is happening, and that's a big problem. Saltier water at the ocean surface behaves differently than fresher seawater by drawing up heat from thedeep ocean and making it harder for sea ice to regrow.The loss of Antarctic sea ice has global consequences. Less sea ice means lesshabitat for penguins and other ice-dwelling species. More of the heat stored in the ocean is released into the atmosphere when ice melts, increasing thenumber and intensity of storms and accelerating global warming. This brings heat waves on land and melts even more of the Antarctic ice sheet, which raises sea levels globally.Our new study has revealed that the Southern Ocean is changing, but in a different way to what we expected. We may have passed a tipping point and entered a new state defined by persistent sea ice decline, sustained by a newly discovered feedback loop.We worked with colleagues at the Barcelona Expert Center and the European Space Agency to develop new algorithms to track ocean surface conditions in polar regions from satellites. By combining satellite observations with data from underwater robots, we built a 15-year picture of changes in ocean salinity, temperature and sea ice. What we found was astonishing. Around 2015, surface salinity in the Southern Ocean began rising sharply—just as sea ice extent started to crash. This reversal was completely unexpected. For decades, the surface had been getting fresher and colder, helping sea ice expand. Normally, the cold, fresh surface water sits on top of warmer, saltier water deep below. This layering (or stratification, as scientists call it) traps heat in the ocean depths, keeping surface waters cool and helping sea ice to form.Saltier water is denser and therefore heavier. So, when surface waters become saltier, they sink more readily, stirring the ocean's layers and allowing heat from the deep to rise. This upward heat flux can melt sea ice from below, even during winter, making it harder for ice to reform. This vertical circulation also draws up more salt from deeper layers, reinforcing the cycle.A powerful feedback loop is created: more salinity brings more heat to the surface, which melts more ice, which then allows more heat to be absorbed from the sun. My colleagues and I saw these processes first hand in 2016–2017 with the return of the Maud Rise polynya, which is a gaping hole in the sea ice that is nearly four times the size of Wales and last appeared in the 1970s. Losing Antarctic sea ice is a planetary problem. Sea ice acts like a giant mirror reflecting sunlight back into space. Without it, more energy stays in the Earth system, speeding up global warming, intensifying storms and driving sea level rise in coastal cities worldwide.
Antarctic summer sea ice is at record lows. Here's how it will harm the planet, and us - On her first dedicated scientific voyage to Antarctica in March, the Australian icebreaker RSV Nuyina found the area sea-ice free. Scientists were able toreach places never sampled before. Over the past four summers, Antarctic sea ice extent has hit new lows.I'm part of a large group of scientists who set out to explore the consequences of summer sea ice loss after the record lows of 2022 and 2023. Today we can finally reveal what we found.It's bad news on many levels, because Antarctic sea ice is vital for the world's climate and ecosystems. But we need to get a grip on what's happening—and use this concerning data to prompt faster action on climate change. We used satellites to understand sea ice loss over summer, measuring everything from ice thickness and extent to the length of time each year when sea ice is absent.Satellite data was also used to calculate how much of the Antarctic coast was exposed to open ocean waves. We were then able to quantify the relationship between sea ice loss and iceberg calving.Data from free-drifting ocean robots was used to understand how sea ice loss affects the tiny plants that support the marine food web. Every other kind of available data was then harnessed to explore the full impact of sea ice changes on ecosystems. Voyage reports from international colleagues came in handy when studying how sea ice loss affected Antarctic resupply missions.We also used computer models to simulate the impact of dramatic summer sea ice loss on the ocean.In summary, our extensive research reveals four key consequences of summer sea ice loss in Antarctica.
- 1.Ocean warming is compounding. Bright white sea ice reflects about 90% of the incoming energy from sunlight, while the darker ocean absorbs about 90%. So if there's less summer sea ice, the ocean absorbs much more heat. This means the ocean surface warms more in an extreme low sea ice year, such as 2016—when everything changed.Until recently, the Southern Ocean would reset over winter. If there was a summer with low sea ice cover, the ocean would warm a bit. But over winter, the extra heat would shift into the atmosphere. That's not working anymore. We know this from measuring sea surface temperatures, but we have also confirmed this relationship using computer models. What's happening instead is when summer sea ice is very low, as in 2016, it triggers ocean warming that persists. It takes about three years for the system to fully recover.
- 2. More icebergs are forming. Sea ice protects Antarctica's coast from ocean waves.On average, about a third of the continent's coastline is exposed over summer. But this is changing. In 2022 and 2023, more than half of the Antarctic coast was exposed. Our research shows more icebergs break away from Antarctic ice sheets in years with less sea ice. During an average summer, about 100 icebergs break away. Summers with low sea ice produce about twice as many icebergs.
- 3. Wildlife squeezed off the ice.Many species of seals and penguins rely on sea ice, especially for breeding and molting.Entire colonies of emperor penguins experienced "catastrophic breeding failure" in 2022, when sea ice melted before chicks were ready to go to sea.After giving birth, crabeater seals need large, stable sea ice platforms for 2–3 weeks until their pups are weaned. The ice provides shelter and protection from predators. Less summer sea-ice cover makes large platforms harder to find.Many seal and penguin species also take refuge on the sea ice when molting. These species must avoid the icy water while their new feathers or fur grows, or risk dying of hypothermia.
- 4. Logistical challenges at the end of the world. Low summer sea ice makes it harder for people working in Antarctica. Shrinking summer sea ice will narrow the time window during which Antarctic bases can be resupplied over the ice. These bases may soon need to be resupplied from different locations, or using more difficult methods such as small boats.
Antarctic sea ice began to change rapidly in 2015 and 2016. Since then it has remained well below the long-term average. The dataset we use relies on measurements from US Department of Defense satellites. Late last month, the department announced it would no longer provide this data to the scientific community. While this has since been delayed to July 31, significant uncertainty remains. One of the biggest challenges in climate science is gathering and maintaining consistent long-term datasets. Without these, we don't accurately know how much our climate is changing. Observing the entire Earth is hard enough when we all work together. It's going to be almost impossible if we don't share our data.
'Every day I see land disappear': Suriname's battle to keep sea at bay -In the dead of night on a beach in Suriname's capital Paramaribo, a group of just-hatched baby sea turtles clamber out of their sandy nesting hole and race, flippers flailing, toward the sea. For years, endangered leatherbacks and green turtles have emerged onto Braamspunt beach to lay their eggs. But the land spit at the tip of the Suriname river estuary is rapidly vanishing as erosion, caused by rising sea levels linked to climate change, gobbles up entire swaths of Paramaribo's coastline."Maybe we'll get one more season out of this," "But after that there'll no longer be a beach," he added dolefully.Suriname, South America's smallest country, is one of the most vulnerable in the world to rising sea levels. Nearly seven out of ten people in the former Dutch colony of 600,000 inhabitants live in low-lying coastal areas, according to the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change."Every day I see a piece of my land disappear," said Gandat Sheinderpesad, a 56-year-old farmer who has lost 95% of his smallholding to the sea.Local authorities have for years been trying to find a way to hold back the tide.In 2020, a program to restore the capital's mangroves was launched. UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres sought to add VIP power to the initiative in 2022 by wading into the mud to personally plant seedlings.But five years later, Sienwnath Naqal, the climate change and water management expert who led the project, surveys a scene of desolation.The sea is now lapping at the edge of a road and the wooden stakes to which he had attached hundreds of samplings are largely bare. High seas carried away the substrate sediment, leaving the roots exposed."Over the last two to three years the water forcefully penetrated the mangroves, which were destroyed," Nurmohamed said.The dredging of sand at the entrance to Paramaribo estuary to facilitate the passage of boats headed upriver to the port also contributed to the erosion, said Naqal.But like the Amazon rainforest in neighboring Brazil, the destruction was also deliberate in places, with farmers uprooting mangroves to make way for crops.
Ridge of Pennata islet collapses after the strongest earthquake in 40 years strikes Campi Flegrei, Italy - An earthquake swarm with the strongest quake registered as an M4.6 quake struck the Campi Flegrei area in southern Italy on June 30, 2025, prompting evacuations and train delays in the region. It was the strongest tremor to strike the region in 40 years, surpassing the M4.4 quakes of March and May. The epicenter of the M4.6 quake was located at a depth of 4 km (2.5 miles) near the Bacoli area and was associated with a swarm of 7 seismic events, according to the National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology (INGV). The ridge of Pennata islet collapsed during the earthquake, which struck at approximately 12:47 local time (10:47 UTC) on June 30. Tremors were felt across Naples, prompting residents in the affected areas to evacuate buildings and gather in the streets. The quake also caused widespread traffic disruptions throughout the region. The Italian Civil Protection Agency said the quake prompted evacuations and disrupted train services. The first checks following the quake didn’t reveal any damage to local infrastructure. Local media reported that multiple schools in Naples, including the Righi Institute in the Fuorigrotta district, were evacuated.
Explosive eruption at Shinmoedake blankets parts of Miyazaki and Kagoshima prefectures with ash, Japan - (videos) A strong explosive eruption occurred at Shinmoedake volcano, part of the Kirishima volcanic complex on Kyushu Island, Japan, at approximately 15:37 JST (06:37 UTC) on July 3, 2025, sending an ash plume up to 6.7 km (22 000 feet) above sea level (a.s.l.). The Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) had raised the volcanic alert to Level 3 on June 27, following increased volcanic unrest. The eruption generated significant ashfall affecting Miyazaki and Kagoshima prefectures, where local authorities issued advisories urging residents to stay indoors, wear protective masks, and cover water sources and vehicles. JMA elevated the volcanic alert level to 3 (entry restrictions) on June 27 due to increased volcanic earthquakes, ground deformation, and elevated sulfur dioxide emissions reaching approximately 4 000 t/day after a smaller eruption on June 22 — the first since 2018, which produced an ash plume up to 500 m (1 640 feet). A mandatory exclusion zone of 3 km (1.8 miles) radius around the summit crater is enforced to prevent injuries from potential volcanic bombs, ashfall, and pyroclastic flows.Historical records show this eruption is moderate compared to previous events. Shinmoedake’s eruption in 2011 produced ash plumes up to 9 km (29 500 feet), causing evacuations and flight disruptions. The 2018 activity was also significant but less intense than the 2011 event.
Global Carbon Emissions Reach Record High Despite Green Efforts | OilPrice.com -- In late June the Energy Institute (EI) released the 2025 Statistical Review of World Energy, which was published previously for more than 70 years by BP.Here is the link to the full 2025 Statistical Review of World Energy.The Review confirmed that a troubling trend continues. Despite historic investments in renewables and net-zero pledges from nearly every major economy, global carbon emissions hit a record high in 2024. This article is the first in a series breaking down the key findings—and what they mean for the global energy sector. The Review breaks down carbon emissions into several categories, but the most comprehensive metric is total carbon dioxide equivalents (CO2-equivalent emissions). This includes emissions from energy use, flaring, industrial processes, and methane associated with fossil fuel production, transportation, and distribution. As defined in the Review, CO2-equivalent emissions represent the sum of carbon dioxide from fossil fuels, flaring, and industrial processes—plus methane emissions converted into their carbon dioxide equivalent. This approach provides a fuller picture of each country’s contribution to atmospheric carbon levels. While land use changes like deforestation are not included, the inclusion of methane—a far more potent greenhouse gas than CO2—makes this a more accurate measure of atmospheric impact. Global carbon emissions hit a new all-time high in 2024, reaching 40.8 billion metric tons of CO2-equivalent emissions. That’s up from 40.3 billion metric tons in 2023—an increase of 0.5 billion tons from the previous year, despite record investments in renewables and aggressive net-zero pledges from countries and corporations alike. The growth trend has continued at a relatively consistent rate since 2021.Over the past decade, global emissions have increased by nearly 1% per year on average, despite a growing list of international climate pledges. Although 2024 saw numerous headlines highlighting record growth in wind and solar—topics I’ll explore in upcoming articles—the emissions data tells a clear story: clean energy is expanding, but not fast enough to keep up with rising global energy demand. The three largest carbon emitters in the world are China, the U.S., and India. Together, they account for over half of all global emissions. However, they have taken very different paths over the past few decades. Despite a 37% increase in population over the period, U.S. carbon emissions in 2024 were lower than they were in 1990. Over the past decade, they’ve declined at an average annual rate of 1.0%. No country has reduced its carbon output more this century. Since 2000, U.S. emissions have fallen by 913 million metric tons—far surpassing second-place Germany, which saw a 292 million metric ton decline. While it’s true that the U.S. started from a higher emissions baseline, the scale of the reduction remains a significant achievement. In contrast, China’s carbon emissions have quintupled since 1990, rising by a staggering 8.8 billion metric tons since 2000 alone. In 2024, China emitted approximately 12.5 billion metric tons of CO2—nearly 31% of the global total—more than the combined emissions of North America and Europe. Despite being the global leader in solar and wind deployment, China is also the world’s largest consumer of coal. That contradiction—leading the clean energy buildout while still relying heavily on fossil fuels—helps explain why global carbon emissions continue to rise, even as renewables grow at record rates. India’s emissions have also quintupled since 1990, with an increase of 2.2 billion metric tons since 2000—second only to China in absolute growth. In 2024, India emitted 3.3 billion metric tons, up 24% over the past decade. India’s rising emissions are closely tied to economic development. As millions move out of poverty and into the middle class, energy demand increases. Much of that demand is still met by fossil fuels. India’s situation reflects the biggest challenge of the global energy transition: how to decarbonize while still expanding access to affordable energy. A regional view of the data reveals deeper structural imbalances. Over the past decade:
- Africa saw emissions jump by 25%.
- The Middle East’s emissions rose by 15%.
- The Asia-Pacific region, which includes China and India, added over 9%.
- Even South and Central America, often overlooked in these discussions, recorded a 9.3% increase.
A crucial methane-tracking satellite has died in orbit | New Scientist --A satellite known as MethaneSAT, anticipated to transform our view of methane emissions, has lost power less than a year and a half after it was launched. MethaneSAT is “likely not recoverable”, according to a statement from the Environmental Defense Fund (EDF), the non-profit organisation that launched and operated the satellite. Its loss is a major blow to efforts to track and stop methane emissions, which are responsible for about a third of the human-caused rise in global temperature to date.When MethaneSAT launched in March 2024, it joined a growing constellation of satellites designed to detect invisible methane emissions from key sources like oil and gas wells, livestock, landfills and wetlands. While some satellites zoomed in on individual sources and others could look across whole regions, MethaneSAT was uniquely suited to detect methane at the middle scale, making it ideal for spotting emissions from oil and gas production.This view was intended to estimate methane emissions from regions known for fossil fuel production, like the Permian Basin in the south-western US. It would also help efforts to identify and cap the largest sources of the potent greenhouse gas.“It’s a significant loss,” says Jason McKeever at GHGSat, a Canadian company that had planned to use MethaneSAT’s data to make decisions about where to point its own satellites. “MethaneSAT was uniquely positioned. It was in a special in-between zone.”The satellite, which cost nearly $100 million to build and launch, started collecting data in June of last year and released its first detections of methane from oil and gas basins in November 2024. Researchers were working on ways to automate data processing so the satellite, which still orbits the planet 15 times per day, could deliver information on emissions in near real time.“We had just started a cadence of releasing data every two weeks,” says Jon Coifman at the Environmental Defense Fund. “The satellite had been producing excellent information.”According to the EDF’s statement, mission operations lost contact with the satellite on 20 June. “After pursuing all options to restore communications, we learned this morning that the satellite has lost power,” it said.The MethaneSAT team is still investigating exactly what went wrong. It will continue to share the data the satellite was able to collect before losing power, as well as the algorithms developed to analyse it.
Major reports about how climate change affects the US are removed from websites -Legally mandated U.S. national climate assessments seem to have disappeared from the federal websites built to display them, making it harder for state and local governments and the public to learn what to expect in their backyards from a warming world. Scientists said the peer-reviewed authoritative reports save money and lives. Websites for the national assessments and the U.S. Global Change Research Program were down Monday and Tuesday with no links, notes or referrals elsewhere. The White House, which was responsible for the assessments, said the information will be housed within NASA to comply with the law, but gave no further details. Searches for the assessments on NASA websites did not turn them up. NASA did not respond to requests for information. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, which coordinated the information in the assessments, did not respond to repeated inquiries. "It's critical for decision makers across the country to know what the science in the National Climate Assessment is. That is the most reliable and well-reviewed source of information about climate that exists for the United States," said University of Arizona climate scientist Kathy Jacobs, who coordinated the 2014 version of the report. "It's a sad day for the United States if it is true that the National Climate Assessment is no longer available," Jacobs said. "This is evidence of serious tampering with the facts and with people's access to information, and it actually may increase the risk of people being harmed by climate-related impacts."
Nuclear power plants shut down in France and Switzerland as heatwave impacts river cooling - Nuclear power plants in France and Switzerland were forced to shut down or reduce output between July 1 and 3, 2025, as a major heatwave raised river water temperatures above regulatory cooling thresholds. A severe heatwave affecting much of Europe over the past 10 days led to shutdowns and output reductions at nuclear power plants in France and Switzerland, as high air temperatures pushed river water used for cooling beyond regulatory limits. Axpo, the operator of the Beznau nuclear power plant in Switzerland, shut down one reactor and reduced output at another due to river water temperatures exceeding 25°C (77°F). Swiss Federal Nuclear Safety Inspectorate (ENSI) regulations require immediate action when cooling water from the Aare River exceeds defined safety limits, both to protect plant integrity and prevent the release of excessively heated water back into the river ecosystem. In France, ÉlectricitĂ© de France (EDF) shut down the Golfech nuclear power plant on July 1, after the Garonne River reached the regulatory maximum intake temperature of 28°C (82°F). EDF also indicated that output restrictions at other nuclear sites, such as Blayais and Bugey, were possible amid the heatwave, though no specific operational changes at those locations were confirmed by July 3. The French Nuclear Safety Authority (ASN) mandates limits on both water intake and discharge temperatures to mitigate risks to riverine biodiversity and comply with environmental protection standards. Both countries have established contingency measures and reserve margins designed to minimize disruptions to the population, and no widespread blackouts have been reported as of July 3.
Central Asia faces 'extreme unsustainability' as land and biosphere limits breached, study warns -A new study delivers a stark warning that Central Asia has overshot its environmental safety limits concerning land footprint and biosphere integrity. The study, led by Prof. Duan Weili from the Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, provides a comprehensive sustainability assessment and identifies Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan as priority areas for environmental management. As one of the world's largest arid regions, Central Asia faces mounting ecological stress. Rapid population growth is intensifying demands for water and energy resources, pushing the region precariously close to, or indeed beyond, its absolute environmental sustainability (AES). To quantify these pressures, the researchers developed a framework combining environmental footprints with downscaled planetary boundaries (PBs) for the period 2000–2020. They assessed six PB indicators: water footprint, carbon footprint, nitrogen footprint, phosphorus footprint, land footprint, and human appropriation of net primary production (HANPP). Their findings, published in Earth's Future, reveal that the region's land footprint and HANPP have severely exceeded their corresponding boundaries. They describe this as a state of "extreme absolute unsustainability," a clear indicator that current patterns of land and ecological consumption are dangerously unsustainable. "Our study shows that Central Asia's environmental pressure mainly stems from its domestic consumption," said Zhu Ziyang, first author of the study. "This underscores an urgent need for targeted policies, like improving irrigation efficiency and adopting scientific land management, to steer development back into a safe operating space."
Australia's $6 Trillion Iron Ore Discovery Set to Transform Global Markets --An abundance of high-quality iron ore and the recent discovery of a 55 billion metric ton reserve have pushed Western Australia into the top spot as the world’s leading iron ore supplier. Now, many are wondering what effects this might have on the country’s export markets as well as global iron ore prices.The newly identified reserve in the Hamersley region is valued at around US $6 trillion and has significantly shaken up the global sector. Experts now expect a surge in investment from major steel-producing nations eager for access to this critical resource. That’s good news for Western Australia, as it means major infrastructure expansion, including new mining operations, transport systems and upgraded port facilities. The state’s ore boasts over 60% iron content, which makes it ideal for industrial use.China, the world’s largest steel producer, currently imports more than 65% of its iron ore from Australia. The discovery of this new reserve could stabilize long-term iron ore prices and reduce China’s reliance on smaller suppliers.And there’s more. Over the weekend, a new mine also launched in the Hamersley region, backed by heavy investments from both Australia and China. The project is a joint venture between China Baowu Steel Group (46%) and Rio Tinto (54%), and will boast an initial capacity of 25 million metric tons following the initial US $2 billion investment. Experts believe it could operate for the next two decades.Located in the Paraburdoo mining hub in Pilbara, the new mine sits in one of Australia’s richest iron ore deposits. The Global Times quoted Western Australian Premier Roger Cook as saying that the mine’s opening represented a “significant achievement” and a major boost to the state’s economy.
Europe’s Green Energy Stocks Jump on Watered-Down U.S. Bill -- Shares in major European renewable energy companies jumped on Wednesday morning after President Trump’s ‘Big Beautiful Bill’ was passed by the Senate with less punitive provisions for green energy projects than initially proposed.The U.S. Senate passed on Tuesday the spending and tax bill with the narrowest of margins, with Vice President JD Vance casting a tie-breaking vote after more than 24 hours of debate. The Bill must also be approved by the House, where more opposition is expected to emerge.The original bill included a new excise tax on renewable energy projects if they are built with a certain percentage of materials sourced from prohibited foreign countries, like China. However, the amended billremoved that excise tax, easing concerns about prohibitively expensive new solar and wind projects.An excise tax would have increased U.S. consumer electricity prices by 8-10%, according to the American Clean Power Association.With the excise tax out of the way, the Big Beautiful Bill also made concessions about the timeline for phasing out tax credits for renewable energy projects. Solar and wind power projects that have already been planned, financed, and approved would still be eligible for the tax credit, provided that construction starts before June 2026 or if they become operational by the end of 2027.As the amended Bill turned out less punitive for the renewable energy industry than initially feared, shares in Europe’s major wind turbine and solar parts manufacturers jumped.Denmark’s turbine maker Vestas jumped by 10%, while Orsted, the world’s biggest offshore wind developer, saw its shares rise by 2% in Copenhagen at noon on Wednesday. Shares in SMA Solar, the German solar power parts supplier, surged by 10%. “We see significant incentives for developers to place orders no later than H1'26 in order to lock-in credits for in-service from 2028,” Citi analysts wrote in a note carried by Reuters, adding that the amended Bill removes a 2027 “cliff” for renewable energy projects in the U.S.
Hedge Funds Abandon Energy Stocks Amid Oil Price Slump - Hedge funds last week sold off stocks of energy companies at the quickest pace in 10 months as oil prices slumped following the announcement of a ceasefire in the 12-day Iran-Israel war. The selling was seen across the board in energy stocks in every region, Goldman Sachs analysts wrote in a note to clients carried by Reuters. Last week’s selloff was at the fastest pace since September 2024 and at the second-fastest pace in ten years, according to the U.S. investment bank. The heaviest selloff was focused on the North American and European energy stocks, as hedge funds boosted their shorts and fled the long positions, especially in European energy companies, Goldman Sachs noted. Despite the rise in short positions, the total combined position of hedge funds remains long on energy stocks globally, according the bank’s analysis. Oil prices soared early this month after Israel hit Iranian nuclear sites and military leadership in coordinated attacks. The two weeks that followed rattled investors and speculators as the market feared a disruption to oil and gas supply from the Middle East. However, the ceasefire announced by U.S. President Donald Trump early last week sent oil prices tumbling and returning to the $60s per barrel handle as the dialing down of the tensions eased concerns about supply disruptions, including the mother of all disruptions—a potential attempt by Iran to close the Strait of Hormuz, which every day handles crude flows equivalent to more than a fifth of global daily oil consumption. Crude oil took the biggest hit among commodities in last week’s selloff, with WTI and Brent futures tumbling 12%, Ole Hansen, Head of Commodity Strategy at Saxo Bank, said on Monday in a weekly commentary of the commitment of traders. Trend-following funds and managed money accounts unloaded last week 95,500 crude oil contracts—wiping out more than half of the previous three weeks’ buildup, Hansen said. Brent Crude was the most heavily sold, with the net long position – the difference between bullish and bearish bets – slashed by 29%.
Wind turbine blade falls on highway, leaves 1 hurt — A windmill turbine blade became loose Monday morning, crossing the median on Interstate 70 in Maryland and causing traffic to be backed up for several miles. According to Maryland State Police (MSP), troopers responded to I-70 West, near Interstate 81, just after 5 a.m. There, they learned that a tractor-trailer had been hauling a windmill blade west on I-70 when the blade became loose. The blade then ended up across the center median, blocking the eastbound lanes, according to state police.
Wing flap found in NC driveway after separating from Delta Air Lines flight (video)– A family in Raleigh, N.C., was shocked upon discovering a plane’s wing flap in their driveway Wednesday morning. The wing came from an aircraft operated by Delta Air Lines that was landing hours before this unexpected discovery. Snake on a plane delays a flight in Australia Delta Flight 3247 had taken off from Atlanta just after 11 p.m. ET on Tuesday night, data from FlightAware indicates. The Boeing 737-900ER, which had 109 passengers and six crew members on board, ultimately landed safely at Raleigh Durham International Airport at approximately 1:15 a.m. — albeit missing part of its wing flap. Hours later, officers with the Raleigh Police Department responded to a call from residents in Raleigh who discovered the wing flap blocking part of the driveway. Initial findings revealed that it did indeed belong to Delta Flight 3247. The flap of an airplane wing lays in a Raleigh driveway (WNCN) A Delta spokesperson later confirmed a portion of the left wing’s trailing edge flap separated before landing. “Delta is fully supporting retrieval efforts and will cooperate with investigations as nothing is more important than safety,” the spokesperson said. The wing flap was collected from the driveway around 12:30 Wednesday afternoon. The Federal Aviation Administration is now leading the investigation to determine how it came off the aircraft.
Indian capital bans fuel for old cars in anti-pollution bid -India's capital banned fuel sales to aging vehicles on Tuesday as authorities try to tackle the sprawling megacity's hazardous air pollution. The city is regularly ranked one of the most polluted capitals globally with acrid smog blanketing its skyline every winter. At the peak of the smog, levels of PM2.5 pollutants—dangerous cancer-causing microparticles small enough to enter the bloodstream through the lungs—surge to more than 60 times the World Health Organization's recommended daily maximum. Petrol cars older than 15 years, and diesel vehicles older than 10, were already banned from operating on New Delhi's roads by a 2018 Supreme Court ruling. But millions flout the rules. According to official figures, over six million such vehicles are plying the city's streets. The ban that came into force on Tuesday seeks to keep them off the roads by barring them from refueling. Police and municipal workers were deployed at fuel stations across Delhi, where number plate-recognizing cameras and loudspeakers were installed. "We have been instructed to call in scrap car dealers if such vehicles come in," said a traffic policeman posted at a fueling station in the city. From November, the ban will be extended to satellite cities around the capital, an area home to more than 32 million people.
Delhi Bans Fuel for Older Vehicles in Pollution Crackdown -Starting July 1, Delhi has enforced a strict ban on refueling older vehicles as part of a broader effort to reduce air pollution, according to the Economic Times. Under the new rule, petrol vehicles older than 15 years and diesel vehicles over 10 years are prohibited from buying fuel at any petrol pump in the capital. This measure is aimed at removing End-of-Life Vehicles (ELVs) from circulation, which are considered major contributors to Delhi’s worsening air quality.To ensure compliance, the government has deployed surveillance systems and enforcement personnel across the city. Those caught violating the rule face heavy penalties: ₹10,000 for four-wheelers and ₹5,000 for two-wheelers. Authorities may also impound or scrap vehicles found flouting the ban.Officials claim the step is necessary for public health and environmental sustainability. Howevere policy has drawn criticism from residents and vehicle owners, who argue that the infrastructure and public alternatives are not yet sufficient to support such a drastic move.Critics have taken to social media to express their frustration, with one user commenting, “No decent footpath but rules like Sweden,”highlighting the perceived gap between European-level regulations and India’s local infrastructure readiness.The Economic Times writes that despite the backlash, the Delhi government maintains that the policy is essential to curb pollution from outdated, high-emission vehicles and says it is a step toward cleaner urban transport.
EPA says it will delay pollution rules for coal plants - The Trump administration says that it plans to delay and potentially loosen water pollution rules for coal-fired power plants. In a press release, the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) said Monday that it will “propose to extend compliance deadlines” for some of the requirements in a Biden-era regulation. The agency also said that it “intends to explore other flexibilities to promote reliable and affordable power generation” but did not specify which parts of the rule it will consider loosening. The Biden administration argued strict pollution standards for coal plants were needed because without them people would be exposed to toxic substances. It said its rule would prevent more than 660 million pounds of pollution each year. Its rule, it claimed, could reduce exposures to substances that are linked to bladder cancer, loss of IQ points and cardiovascular disease. The Trump administration, however, argues that changes are needed to bolster the electric grid. “As our electric grid faces unprecedented load growth, EPA remains committed to promoting reliable, affordable, and domestically-sourced resources—including beautiful, clean coal — to support American manufacturing, job creation, and economic and energy independence,” said EPA Administrator Lee Zeldin in a written statement.
Fox Tank Company making $7.9M investment in Coshocton County -Fox Tank Company, a Texas-based leading provider of steel storage tanks and pressurized separation vessels for the oil and gas industry, is proud to announce the expansion of its manufacturing operation to the state of Ohio to accommodate its rapidly growing customer base in the Appalachian Basin region. In collaboration with JobsOhio, Ohio Southeast Economic Development (OhioSE), Ohio Department of Development, and the Coshocton County Port Authority, the company announced an investment of $7.9 million to establish operations in Coshocton, creating 89 new jobs. “Ohio’s central location to oil and gas industry customers and its exceptional manufacturing talent gave us the strategic advantage to attract Fox Tank Company’s first Ohio investment,” said Ohio Governor Mike DeWine. “The Coshocton community and existing infrastructure were an ideal match for Fox Tank.” A family-owned business, Fox Tank Company is a leading manufacturer of steel storage tanks and equipment for the oil and gas industry, specializing in API-grade tanks for upstream and midstream operations. The company was founded in 1979 in Kerrville, Texas. “With one of the largest manufacturing workforces in the nation, Ohio stands ready to quickly support Fox Tank Company’s first facility in the state, which will be within the Marcellus and Utica Shale regions,” said JobsOhio President and CEO J.P. Nauseef. “Eastern Ohio’s proven talent will help Fox Tank continue its 50-year tradition of serving the oil and gas industry with quality products.” Known for its quality craftsmanship and quick turnaround times, Fox Tank serves clients across the U.S. and has a reputation for reliability, safety, and customer service. “The expansion comes in response to the increasing demand for Fox Tank’s equipment from customers producing oil and natural gas from the Marcellus and Utica shale formations covering Pennsylvania, West Virginia and Eastern Ohio,” said R. Nathan Fox, CEO of Fox Tank Company. “This strategic move will create many new jobs in Coshocton and the surrounding area and further solidify Fox Tank Company’s position as a key economic driver in the region. The expansion also allows FTC to better serve our customers, both established and new, with faster delivery times, lower freight rates and enhanced support.” With this investment, Fox Tank plans to lease a facility in Coshocton and capitalize on its strategic location in the growing Marcellus and Utica Shale region where it can serve customers in the upstream and midstream sectors of the oil and gas industry. The project was supported by a $450,000 JobsOhio Grant and a Job Creation Tax Credit from the Ohio Tax Credit Authority.
EIA Report Shows Marcellus Proved Gas Reserves Dropped 5.9% in 2023 -- Marcellus Drilling News -- The number crunchers at the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) analyzed proved reserves data for 2023 (the most recent year available) and determined that proved reserves of U.S. natural gas decreased 12.6% year over year, from 691.0 trillion cubic feet (Tcf) to 603.6 Tcf. This was the first annual decrease in U.S. natural gas reserves since 2020. Looking at the numbers for Pennsylvania, Ohio, and West Virginia, natural gas proved reserves decreased by 4% (PA), 13% (OH), and 6% (WV) from 2022 to 2023. The report shows that Marcellus gas reserves dropped 5.9% in 2023.
Upper Burrell Plans to Block Injection Wells with New Policy -- Marcellus Drilling News -- Upper Burrell (Westmoreland County, PA) town supervisors have historically been receptive (or at least tolerant) to the Marcellus Shale industry that has so blessed their town and Westmoreland County. But attitudes seemed to change last December, at least with respect to wastewater injection wells (see Upper Burrell Twp Makes Moves to Ban Wastewater Injection Wells). The town’s Board of Supervisors instructed the town solicitor to draft an ordinance with stricter rules for the use of abandoned wells in the township. At a board meeting on Wednesday, members of the community (Big Green shills?) lectured the supervisors that the proposed draft needs tightening to ensure absolutely no new injection wells are possible in the town.
Do Landowners Get Money for Lithium Extracted from Wastewater? -- Marcellus Drilling News - Lithium extracted from Marcellus shale wastewater (brine) has been in the news over the past week or so. Last week, we brought you the exciting news that a Boston-based company, Gradiant, is working on building a lithium production facility in an undisclosed PA location, which we were able to identify as Susquehanna County (see Integrated Lithium Production Plant Coming to PA Marcellus in 2026). Two days later we brought you the news that Vancouver-based Rain City Resources Inc. is already testing lithium-from-brine technology at a different facility in Susquehanna County (see Successful Lithium-from-Brine Pilot Test in Susquehanna County, PA). The news has sparked a flurry of inquiries to MDN asking this question: Will landowners receive compensation for wastewater sales that contain lithium?
FERC, Other Federal Agencies Dump NEPA Regs on Global Warming - Marcellus Drilling News - We are finally seeing a return to sanity and real science following four years of out-of-control edicts during the Biden autopen administration. (The old fool likely didn’t even know a tenth of the things signed under his name.) On Monday, the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC), along with the Departments of Agriculture, Energy, the Interior, and Transportation, revised regulations to eliminate all references to considering climate change, environmental justice, and other so-called environmental issues in their permit reviews. The left under Biden had introduced such nonsense in a bid to block new fossil energy projects. No more! The pendulum has swung back to the common-sense middle.
U.S. Natural Gas Giants Eye New Appalachia Pipelines | OilPrice.com Rising demand for natural gas in the United States and a supportive administration are prompting U.S. natural gas producers and pipeline giants to begin to actively consider proposing new pipelines to bring more gas supply from America’s top gas-producing region, Appalachia, to consumers.“We are actively evaluating opportunities to expand infrastructure,” Amy Rogers, a spokeswoman for one of the top U.S. natural gas producers, EQT, told Reuters.“Enhancing pipeline capacity is essential to unlocking Appalachian supply,” Rogers added. EQT’s chief executive officer, Toby Rice, said in West Virginia as early as in March that more natural gas pipelines are coming in the Appalachia region, to meet growing demand from data centers and coal retirements. “So we’ve got to get serious about this, and these data center opportunities in our state are they’re the reasons for us to get started and start building back and capturing some of the lost time that we had,” Rice said at a meeting attended by West Virginia Governor Patrick Morrisey, as carried by West Virginia Public Broadcasting. Other producers and pipeline giants, including Williams Cos and DT Midstream, have also proposed new or expanded pipeline capacity in the Appalachia region and in the Northeast. Lat year, the Appalachia region remained the nation’s top-producing region, accounting for 31%, or 35.6 Bcf/d, of marketed natural gas production in the United States, EIA data showed. However, production growth in the Appalachia has been slowing in recent years because of limited pipeline takeaway capacity to transport natural gas to demand markets, the administration noted. Appalachian production rose slightly by only 0.1%, or 0.50 million cubic feet per day, in 2024. Yet, the United States last year added the most pipeline takeaway capacity from natural gas-producing regions since 2021. This year, more gas pipelines could be announced or revived, with the support of the Trump Administration, in what could be a shot in the arm for U.S. natural gas producers and a step toward reducing energy costs for consumers, especially in the Northeast.
Trump Policies Spark Renewed Interest in Appalachian Gas Pipelines - U.S. energy companies are eyeing a resurgence in natural gas pipeline construction in the Appalachian shale formations, fueled by President Donald Trump's pro-energy policies and an anticipated surge in demand. This move could unlock vast reserves in Pennsylvania, Ohio, and West Virginia, areas currently hampered by insufficient infrastructure, to meet the growing demand, which is expected to surge over the coming years. While the U.S. is the world's leading gas producer and exporter of liquefied natural gas (LNG), many consumers in the Northeast still lack access to gas, relying instead on more expensive heating oil. The limited access to gas supplies is attributed to inadequate pipelines and past regulatory hurdles that have only made it challenging for the country to tap into the full potential of the nation's largest gas reserves: the Marcellus and Utica formations in Appalachia. Growth in the region, which accounts for roughly one-third of U.S. gas output, has stagnated as companies previously lost billions on delayed or canceled projects. However, with Trump's stated aim to roll back regulations to allow many energy projects to be implemented, firms including Williams Cos., Boardwalk Pipeline, DT Midstream, and EQT are now proposing new or expanded infrastructure in the Northeast. Amy Rogers, a spokeswoman for EQT, the nation's second-largest gas producer, emphasized the need for increased pipeline capacity to "unlock Appalachian supply," as the demand for gas is expected to climb, driven by new LNG export terminals and electric generation facilities powering artificial intelligence data centers. Analysts project U.S. power and gas demand to reach record highs in 2025 and 2026. While Appalachian output has grown since 2009, its pace slowed significantly between 2020 and 2024 due to pipeline constraints. The Trump administration's support has already led Williams to revive two previously canceled projects: the Constitution Pipeline to New York and the Northeast Supply Enhancement (NESE) to New Jersey and New York. These projects are considered "essential" by Williams to address gas supply shortages in the Northeast, which have led to higher energy costs for consumers. During the 2024-2025 winter, heating with oil cost roughly twice as much as with gas in the region.
US energy firms eye new Northeast natgas pipelines, buoyed by Trump and demand outlook - (Reuters) -U.S. energy companies are eying renewed opportunities to build natural gas pipelines to tap in to Appalachia shale formations in Pennsylvania, Ohio and West Virginia, buoyed by U.S. President Donald Trump’s pro-energy policies and expectations that demand for the fuel will rise in coming years. The U.S. is already the world's top gas producer and exporter of liquefied natural gas. While the country helps meet fuel demand around the world, many consumers in the U.S. Northeast do not have access to gas due to a lack of pipeline infrastructure and instead continue to use heating oil in their homes and businesses. The Appalachia shale fields, which cover the Marcellus and Utica formations, have the largest gas reserves in the U.S., but energy companies have limited ability to move more of that fuel to the rest of the country because most existing pipelines are already near full. In addition, companies have found it tough to build new projects in the region due to legal and regulatory pushback from states and local and environmental groups. Output growth in the region, which produces about a third of the nation's gas, has stalled in recent years after some firms lost billions on delayed or canceled pipes. But now, as Trump rolls back regulations to boost domestic energy production, several U.S. firms, including Williams Cos, Boardwalk Pipeline, DT Midstream and EQT, have proposed building or expanding pipelines and other infrastructure in the Northeast. "We are actively evaluating opportunities to expand infrastructure," Amy Rogers, spokeswoman at EQT, the nation's second-biggest gas producer with operations in Appalachia, told Reuters. "Enhancing pipeline capacity is essential to unlocking Appalachian supply," she said. In 2024, the U.S. produced about 103.2 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) of gas and consumed a record 90.5 bcfd of the fuel, according to U.S. Energy Information Administration data. One billion cubic feet of gas is enough to supply about 5 million U.S. homes for a day. Analysts expect that new LNG export plants and electric generation facilities to power artificial intelligence at data centers will push U.S. power and gas demand to record highs in 2025 and 2026 and beyond. Output from Appalachia has increased every year since at least 2009 when the region produced just 1.7 bcfd of gas. Lack of pipeline capacity, however, has slowed that growth to an average of just 2% a year from 2020 to 2024 versus an average of 15% a year from 2015 to 2019, according to EIA data.
8 Proposed Pipeline Projects to Carry Molecules From M-U Region -- Marcellus Drilling News - We’ve pointed out (for years) the relative success the anti-drilling left has had in blocking new pipeline projects to carry Marcellus/Utica molecules to other regions, stifling new drilling in our area as a result. Although it has been and will continue to be a challenge to build new pipeline projects, the Trump administration is making it easier. Trump’s policies encourage new pipelines and more access to natural gas. We spotted an article from Reuters that provides an overview of eight pipeline projects that are actively being pursued to carry M-U molecules to other regions. We’ve covered all of these projects in previous posts. The Reuters article compiles the most likely candidates for new pipeline projects into a single, convenient article. BOARDWALK PIPELINE PARTNERS | DT MIDSTREAM | ENERGY SERVICES | EQUITRANS/EQT MIDSTREAM | INDUSTRYWIDE ISSUES | TRANSCO | WILLIAMS
Other firms join Williams in seeking approval for more gas pipelines into the Northeast -Tulsa’s Williams company is not the only natural gas pipeline company wanting to resume efforts to build a natural gas supply into the country’s Northeast in light of President Trump’s encouragement by rolling back regulations. Among others expressing plans to expand or build p;ipelines in the Northeast are Boardwalk Pipeline, DT Midstream and EQT. All want to take advantage of the Appalachia shale formations in Ohio, Pennsylvania and West Virginia. We’ve reported in recent months how the northeast part of the country lacks facilities to increase natural gas supplies and generate more electricity. Because some of those states banned natural gas use and would not allow pipeline construction, they are behind in the siting of data centers which instead chose Midwest locations because of the availability of natural gas for electric generation. Reuters reported the same thing this week, “While the country helps meet fuel demand around the world, many consumers in the U.S. Northeast do not have access to gas due to a lack of pipeline infrastructure and instead continue to use heating oil in their homes and businesses.”
Hochul faces pipeline test— Gov. Kathy Hochul faces a major decision on a new pipeline supported by President Donald Trump to bring more natural gas into the New York City region.The Department of Environmental Conservation declared the application for a water quality permit for the Northeast Supply Enhancement Project complete Wednesday. The pipeline would run 24 miles from New Jersey, across the Raritan Bay, to connect to the pipeline system in the Rockaways.The state told federal agencies last month it would make a decision on the project by Nov. 30, in compliance with an accelerated timeline under a Trump executive order. The DEC declined to schedule any public hearings at this stage, a move sure to spark pushback from environmental advocates.The department’s determination that the Williams Co. pipeline application is complete kicks the permitting process into high gear. The project faces staunch opposition from environmental groups, and the decision will test New York’s landmark 2019 climate law, which Hochul’s (D) administration has cited in denying permits for new gas power plants.
Venture Global Inches CP2 Toward FID With Another Supply Deal — Venture Global LNG Inc. has agreed to supply Petronas with 1 million tons/year (Mt/y) of LNG for 20 years from its CP2 project in Louisiana. Image showing a comprehensive market analysis of the European Union’s gas storage levels with graphs representing trends in inventories, highlighting key insights into energy market dynamics and gas data projections for the near future. The deal builds on another agreement between the companies for Petronas to purchase 1 Mt/y from Venture Global’s Plaquemines export plant that’s under construction in Louisiana. The latest deal comes as Venture Global is working toward a final investment decision (FID) for CP2. The company launched the FID process in March and has spent more than $4 billion on the facility to date. Early site work has also started and the company has signed agreements to sell 10.75 Mt/y of CP2’s first 14.4 Mt/y phase.
Venture Global Requests FERC Review as LNG Traffic Intensifies in Louisiana - As U.S. LNG developers continue to push a bevy of Louisiana export projects closer to the finish line, Venture Global LNG Inc. is seeking reassurance that increasing activity around its western Louisiana facility will not disrupt its natural gas shipments. The summer outlook for project final investment decisions (FID) has continued to heat up with a series of supply deals and equity agreements, sparking speculation about which company may be next to sanction an export facility. So far, two of a projected seven proposed projects with FIDs targeted for this year have launched successful financing. However, two additional projects – Venture’s CP2 and Kimmeridge Energy Management Co. LLC’s Commonwealth terminal – could reach FID within the next few months, according to the companies.
Golden Pass LNG Eyeing October Train 1 Start -- Golden Pass LNG could use imported LNG volumes to jumpstart commissioning activities at the Texas natural gas export project as soon as October. Golden Pass LNG Terminal LLC has asked the U.S. Department of Energy for permission to re-export up to 50 Bcf of previously imported volumes for up to two years. The imported cargoes would be used to cool down equipment, an important part of the plant’s commissioning process as it works toward startup. Under the proposal, the company disclosed LNG volumes would be imported and stored at its existing storage tanks and could be either sold outside of the United States as LNG or re-gassified for the domestic market.
EOG Exec Keen on ‘Extremely Attractive’ Natural Gas, Pegging Long-Term Prices at $4.50 --EOG Resources Inc., which has staked out production zones across the Lower 48 and beyond, remains “extremely constructive” on the future of natural gas, according to COO Jeffery Leitzell. Natural Gas Intelligence's (NGI) spot National Avg. daily natural gas price graph showing historical market volatility. The EOG operating chief in June spoke at the J.P. Morgan Energy, Power, Renewables and Mining Conference. He told the audience all signs are pointing up for global natural gas. More LNG capacity will be “coming on over the next couple of years, along with the power generation demand that’s going to be out there,” Leitzell said. “We see somewhere between 4% and 6% compound annual growth rate for natural gas demand through the rest of the decade. So it’s very robust.”
Natural Gas (NG=F) Price Slides Below $3.30 as Oversupply and Weak Demand Trigger Bearish Setup --Natural gas prices have collapsed nearly 20% from the recent $4.11 peak, with the NG=F futures contract tumbling to $3.30 by early July. The failure to sustain above $3.96—the 200-day moving average—has reaffirmed the market’s bearish tilt. Five straight failed tests of the $3.50–$3.60 zone and a rejection at $3.740 have carved a pattern of lower highs. These repeated breakdowns have pulled the futures below the 20-day Bollinger Band low of $3.465, increasing odds of a flush toward $3.00, and possibly $2.97, the November 2024 low. Inventories remain heavily stocked across the U.S. and Europe. U.S. storage injections continue to outpace five-year averages, while Europe’s LNG storage sits at 58%—well above seasonal norms. According to ANZ, LNG imports into Europe are tracking 41% above the 5-year seasonal average. These inventory builds come despite previously bullish catalysts—like the Middle East cease-fire—now neutralized, removing geopolitical premiums from pricing. Even the temporary spike in prices from the Israel-Iran de-escalation faded rapidly, with Brent falling back to $67.91 and WTI to $65.17. In TĂĽrkiye, the Energy Market Regulatory Authority (EPDK) announced a 24.6% increase in natural gas prices for households, effective July 2. While this suggests localized demand-side pricing pressure, it’s unlikely to offset the broader global glut. BOTAS also imposed a 7.86% hike on industrial consumers. These policy moves indicate an effort to manage domestic fiscal imbalances rather than reflect market-driven scarcity. Summer temperatures across the U.S. and India have been localized rather than widespread. National Weather Service data shows the intense heat dome that swept through the South in June is not expected to expand significantly into July. Cooling demand remains below average, and electricity consumption in key U.S. regions is tracking weaker than historical patterns. This lag in air conditioning usage has capped power-sector natural gas demand, undermining seasonal bull theses. Even with triple-digit temperatures hitting some U.S. cities, the patchy nature of the heat wave has failed to drive sustained drawdowns in gas reserves. Traders remain focused on the $3.45 support zone—if breached, technicals point to $3.00 or lower as the next major floor. Ongoing production growth further undermines natural gas pricing. OPEC+ approved another output hike of 411,000 bpd for August, while U.S. shale producers show no signs of restraint. LNG Canada has begun shipments, and Russian gas continues flowing through relaxed Syrian sanctions. These flows maintain high global availability despite subdued demand. Meanwhile, Colombia's Ecopetrol is expanding its Lorito field, adding LPG supply just as the U.S. begins monetizing excess gas from the Permian. These concurrent output expansions confirm the market's oversupply regime, regardless of occasional geopolitical events or policy headlines. The bullish triggers that spurred the $4.11 peak—weather, Middle East tension, and seasonal optimism—have eroded without delivering a fundamental demand shift. Volatility remains elevated as prompt-month contracts swing violently August Nymex gas futures fell 28.3 cents Monday to settle at $3.456/MMBtu. The gap between prompt contracts and spot pricing (which averages $3.225) shows continued volatility and market indecision. Daily trading ranges now exceed 5%, with trend signals weakening across all major indicators. Sideways chop between $3.610 and $3.830 dominates the landscape, and without a break above $3.96, the bearish trend remains intact.
Analyst Highlights August Natural Gas Contract 'Collapse' | Rigzone -- In an EBW Analytics Group report sent to Rigzone by the EBW team on Tuesday, Eli Rubin, an energy analyst at the company, highlighted a “collapse” in the August natural gas contract on Monday. The contract closed at $3.456 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) yesterday, which marked a 28.3 cent, or 7.6 percent drop, from the previous close, the report outlined. “Yesterday’s natural gas price implosion fully erased Friday’s gains, with strong supply readings, milder Week 3 weather (particularly in Texas and the Southeast), and ongoing Henry Hub spot market softness dragging down the curve,” Rubin said in the report. “LNG bright spots are beginning to emerge, however, with Corpus Christi nominations rising to match a facility high, and LNG Canada loading its first cargo. Early-cycle U.S. LNG demand readings are already 1.9 billion cubic feet per day (Bcfpd) above the June average,” he added. “Critical support near $3.40 per MMBtu (last Thursday’s intraday low) may be determinative for the NYMEX front-month. If support can hold, LNG solidifies at higher levels, and elevated late June production readings decline, expanding Week 2 CDDs [Cooling Degree Days] surpassing the late June heat wave could propel upside over the next 7-10 days,” Rubin went on to state. “If support fails, however, it may open the door to another leg lower at the front of the NYMEX curve,” Rubin warned in the report. In an EBW Analytics Group report sent to Rigzone by the EBW team on Monday, Rubin highlighted that natural gas retreated after Friday’s gain. The report pointed out that the August natural gas contract closed at $3.739 per MMBtu on Friday. This represented a 21.3 cent, or 6.0 percent, rise compared to the previous close, the report outlined. “While the August natural gas contract rose 21.3 cents on Friday after plunging 42.3 cents in the first four sessions last week, it appears too much, too soon,” Rubin warned in that report. “Henry Hub spot prices averaged $3.23 over the weekend and production readings are climbing into the end of June,” he added. “However, pipeline nomination patterns often suggest higher supply into the end of the month, followed by phantom first of month declines - likely later this week. LNG feedgas reached a seven week high at 15.3 Bcfpd on Sunday and may continue to rise into mid-July as Corpus Christi brings online a third midscale train,” he continued. “Weather will remain a primary driver of prices, with Week 2 CDDs surpassing the late-June heat wave,” he went on to state. In that report, Rubin warned that the July 4 holiday may dent natural gas demand this week and next, “with another retest of technical support early this week”. “Dependent on mid to late July weather, a more durable rebound remains likely after the holiday weekend,” Rubin said in the report. A research note sent to Rigzone by the JPM Commodities Research team on Tuesday showed that J.P. Morgan expects the U.S. Natural Gas Henry Hub price to average $3.90 per MMBtu in the second quarter of 2025, $4.00 per MMBtu in the third quarter, and $3.75 per MMBtu in the fourth quarter. J.P. Morgan sees the commodity coming in at $3.80 per MMBtu overall in 2025, according to the research note. EBW Analytics Group provides independent expert analysis of natural gas, electricity, and crude oil markets, the company’s site states. Rubin is an expert in econometrics, statistics, microeconomics, and energy-related public policy, the site adds, noting that he is “instrumental in designing the algorithms used in our models, and in assessing the potential discrepancies between theoretical and practical market effects of models and historical results”.
China Snubs U.S. Crude for Third Month, Even as Ethane Trade Restarts -China has avoided buying U.S. crude oil for three straight months—the longest dry spell since 2018—delivering another hit to American shale producers already struggling with weak prices and rising global supply.According to new U.S. Census data released Thursday, China bought no American crude in May, following a similar freeze in March and April. The gap comes amid ongoing trade tensions between Washington and Beijing and has dragged total U.S. crude exports to their lowest level in more than two years.The timing couldn’t be worse for shale producers. Benchmark WTI crude recently slipped back below $70 per barrel as geopolitical risk premiums faded and OPEC+ continues to ramp up supply. Without Chinese demand to soak up barrels, U.S. exporters are left with fewer options—raising fears of a glut in the domestic market and further downward pressure on prices. While crude trade has stalled, there’s movement on another front: ethane. On Wednesday, the Trump administration lifted licensing restrictions on U.S. ethane exports to China. The move reverses a June rule that required U.S. exporters like Energy Transfer and Enterprise Products Partners to secure special licenses for every shipment, effectively bottlenecking the trade of natural gas liquids.The Commerce Department’s decision reopens a critical export stream. China accounted for 47% of all U.S. ethane exports in 2024, and the resumption of trade is expected to reverse recent EIA forecasts of declining volumes. Ethane is used primarily for producing ethylene—a key component in plastics and petrochemicals. Still, the return of ethane flows offers little comfort to crude producers. With China continuing to snub U.S. oil even as it ramps up imports from Iran and Russia, shale drillers face a tough path ahead unless relations thaw—or prices climb.
PEMEX Crude Exports Drop 26% in May, Revenue Falls 43% -According to official PEMEX data, Mexico’s National Oil Company exported approximately 674 Mb/d of crude oil in May 2025, marking a 26% decline from the 910 Mb/d exported in May 2024. Correspondingly, oil export revenues fell sharply, from around US$2.1 billion last May to US$1.2 billion this year, a 43% drop equating to a loss of US$900 million. This revenue decline is primarily attributed to lower oil prices, with the Mexican Oil Mix falling from US$73 per barrel in May 2024 to US$57 per barrel in May 2025. Exports remained predominantly within the Americas, accounting for nearly 70% of shipments. Europe received approximately 21%, while Asia accounted for the remaining 9%. For the first five months of 2025, crude oil exports averaged 662 Mb/d, down 20% from 833 Mb/d during the same period in 2024. Crude oil production also declined by 9%, dropping from 1.51 MMb/d in May 2024 to 1.37 MMb/d in May 2025. In contrast, petroleum product output increased by 12%, rising from 907 Mb/d to 1.02 MMb/d year-over-year. Natural gas production saw a slight increase compared to April, from 4.50 Bcf/d to 4.54 Bcf/d, maintaining steady output around 4.5 Bcf/d over the past year. However, natural gas imports surged significantly. In May 2025, PEMEX imported 1.01 Bcf/d of natural gas, the highest monthly volume this year and the largest since June 2019, when imports reached 1.05 Bcf/d. This reflects a 50% increase compared to the 671 MMcf/d imported in May 2024.
Enbridge Looks to Raise Canada’s Oil Flows to U.S. via New Pipeline | OilPrice.com Rising Canadian oil production and continued demand for more shipping capacity at the key U.S. refining hubs have prompted Canada’s pipeline giant Enbridge to test interest from potential shippers for a new pipeline in Illinois linked to the Mainline system. Enbridge is considering raising the crude shipment capacity from Canada to the United States via the pipeline that could boost oil flows by 200,000 barrels per day (bpd).Enbridge and its partner Energy Transfer are gauging potential shippers’ interest in an open season until mid-July for a proposed new link, the Southern Illinois Connector, Enbridge has told Bloomberg in response to questions.Southern Illinois Connector would entail reconfiguring and upgrading existing systems and building a new segment. The pipeline is expected to receive Canadian crude from Enbridge’s Mainline system and connect to Energy Transfer’s crude oil Pipeline at Patoka, sources with knowledge of the plans told Bloomberg.The open season for the Southern Illinois Connector is in response to increased demand for additional capacity from Illinois to the U.S. Gulf Coast, Enbridge said.Enbridge operates the Mainline system, moving more than 3 million barrels a day of crude oil and liquids from Western Canada to the demand markets in the United States. Overall, Enbridge moves 30% of the crude oil produced in North America, for 65% of all U.S.-bound Canadian oil exports, 40% of U.S. oil imports, and about 25% of North American oil exports.More shipping capacity out of Canada would be welcome news for producers who are raising output from the oil sands to record highs and will continue to smash records this decade.Despite lower oil prices, Canada’s oil sands production is expected to reach an annual all-time high of 3.5 million barrels per day (bpd) this year, thanks to optimization and efficiency at producing assets, S&P Global Commodity Insights said in its latest 10-year outlook earlier this week.Oil sands volumes are expected to top 3.9 million bpd by 2030, per S&P Global Commodity Insights. Efficiencies, optimization, and favorable economics are expected to drive production growth at Canada’s oil sands, S&P Global Commodity Insights says.Despite market volatility, Canada’s energy producers have maintained spending and production guidance so far this year, showing more resilience compared to some of their counterparts in the United States.The potential increase in Canada’s oil flows to the U.S. via the new Illinois pipeline proposed by Enbridge and Energy Transfer would accommodate rising Canadian oil production and meet industry demand at the U.S. refining centers.Canada’s oil-producing province of Alberta is also seeking additional shipping capacity within Canada to boost Canadian oil exports to customers outside the United States.Alberta could receive, within weeks, a proposal from a private company for a new pipeline to British Columbia’s northwest coast, Alberta Premier Danielle Smith told Bloomberg News in an interview earlier this week. Earlier this month, Smith said that Alberta is working to engage private backers for a new pipeline to ship about 1 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude from Canada’s oil-producing province to British Columbia.The pipeline would run from the oil sands in Alberta to the Port of Prince Rupert on British Columbia’s northwest coast, and to international markets afterwards, according to the plans of the province.Amid soured relations with its top trading partner under U.S. President Donald Trump, Canadian policymakers at both the federal and provincial levels have started to realize they may have too hastily scrapped over the past decade Alberta-to-coast pipeline projects that could have diversified Canada’s oil and gas exports.The expanded Trans Mountain route is currently the only pipeline shipping Alberta’s landlocked crude for exports on tankers from the West Coast.Alberta is also betting on a restart of its dialogue with the federal government after Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney pledged that the federal authorities would work to fast-track major projects to make Canada an energy superpower.
Vessel Arrives at LNG Canada to Load First Cargo, Strengthening Global Supply Outlook — Global natural gas prices declined again on Monday as tensions in the Middle East continued to cool and the risk premium faded. Chart and map of Lower 48 LNG export facilities tracking daily natural gas feedstock flows to sites for market intelligence. The Title Transfer Facility (TTF) and the Japan-Korea Marker (JKM) fell last week after Israel and Iran agreed to a ceasefire following attacks against each other that threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz, which is a vital route for LNG cargoes. The focus is now shifting back to tariffs as the United States and Canada work to revive trade negotiations. TTF was down again on Monday, when the August contract finished 2% lower at $11.34/MMBtu.
LNG Canada Ships First Cargo, Signaling Canada’s Debut as Major Natural Gas Supplier to Asia -- The first cargo has left the LNG Canada facility in British Columbia (BC), according to the project partners, marking Canada’s entrance as a large-scale natural gas exporter to the global market. Map of Western Canada's natural gas pipeline network and LNG facilities, highlighting key pipeline routes, major LNG export terminals, regional hubs, and connections to the United States market. Shell plc, the operator of the 14 million ton/year (Mt/y) facility in Kitimat, BC, disclosed late Monday that the vessel Gaslog Glasgow had successfully loaded and had left berth. By Tuesday, the ship controlled by Shell was off Canada’s western coast and indicated a voyage to South Korea, according to Kpler ship traffic data. Another ship controlled by Petronas has signaled arrival at Kitimat on July 6.
First LNG Cargo Departs from Canada's West Coast Facility - A significant milestone was reached in the global energy landscape yesterday as the first cargo of liquefied natural gas (LNG) successfully departed from the LNG Canada facility on the west coast of British Columbia. This landmark event, announced by Shell Canada Energy, an affiliate of Shell plc, signals the operational commencement of a project poised to play a pivotal role in meeting rising global energy demand and supporting decarbonization efforts, particularly in Asian markets. Shell holds the largest working interest in the LNG Canada joint venture, with a 40% stake. Located in Kitimat, British Columbia, the state-of-the-art facility is equipped with two processing units, or "trains," boasting a combined annual capacity of 14 million tonnes of LNG. This initial phase of the project is a testament to years of intricate planning, colossal investment, and collaborative efforts among the joint venture partners. The timing of LNG Canada's operational launch is particularly pertinent given the energy dynamics in Asian markets. As these economies increasingly transition away from coal-fired power generation, exports from LNG Canada are strategically positioned to contribute significantly to global decarbonization. LNG serves as a lower-carbon alternative to coal for electricity generation and can act as a reliable partner for intermittent renewable energy sources, providing stability to grids reliant on solar and wind power. Shell's own LNG Outlook 2025 forecasts a substantial surge in global LNG demand, projecting an approximate 60% rise by 2040, primarily fueled by robust economic growth across Asia. The strategic location of LNG Canada on Canada's Pacific Coast offers a distinct advantage, efficiently connecting cost-competitive upstream gas from British Columbia to this burgeoning Asian demand. Beyond its global energy implications, the LNG Canada project is already generating substantial economic benefits for British Columbia. It represents a significant new source of economic development, delivering a competitive, secure, and reliable energy source in close partnership with local communities and First Nations. Over 50,000 Canadians have been employed on the venture, with more than CAD $5.8 billion in contracts and subcontracts awarded to local, Indigenous-owned, and other businesses within the province. The LNG Canada joint venture is a collaborative effort comprising Shell plc (40%), PETRONAS (25%), PetroChina Company Limited (15%), Mitsubishi Corporation (15%), and Korea Gas Corporation (5%). Each participant will independently supply their own natural gas and market their respective share of LNG produced from the facility, ensuring a diversified supply chain from day one
Wildfires Cripple Alberta’s Oil Production -- Oil production from Canada’s oil heartland, Alberta, slumped to a two-year low in May as wildfires in the province and maintenance on some oil sands operations dragged oil output to a two-year low.Alberta produced on average 3.61 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude oil in May, according to provincial data cited by Bloomberg. Output plunged by 397,000 bpd from April, and stood at the lowest level since May 202Production at oil sands projects plummeted by 384,000 bpd, to the lowest level seen in over four years, according to the data.This year, Alberta faced one of its worst early-season wildfire crises in recent memory, with industry officials confirming in early June that over 50% of the province’s oil production has been forced offline as flames swept through critical infrastructure zones.Seven key oil producers scaled back or halted operations entirely for days between late May and early June. The fires triggered evacuations in production hubs including Fort McMurray, echoing the catastrophic 2016 wildfires that paralyzed Canada’s energy heartland.Canada’s top producing companies, including Cenovus Energy, Canadian Natural Resources, and MEG Energy,halted production and evacuated workers from northeastern Alberta as wildfires continued to spread across the region, disrupting operations and threatening infrastructure. “This is an operational nightmare,” said Rory Johnston, founder of Commodity Context, in a note cited by Bloomberg in early June. “The timing—just as global crude inventories are tightening—adds serious bullish pressure to markets.” He added that the market may underestimate the “structural fragility” of Alberta’s wildfire preparedness.As a result of low production in Alberta, the price of heavy crude has strengthened relative to the U.S. benchmark WTI Crude. Western Canadian Select (WCS), the benchmark for Canada’s heavy crude for delivery in Hardisty, Alberta, saw its discount to WTI Crude narrow to less than $10 per barrel at the end of June, compared to an average of $15 a barrel discount in the past five years.
Global Natural Gas Prices Rally as Europe Contends With Heat Wave — The Offtake -- A look at the global natural gas and LNG markets by the numbers
- 59%: A heat wave in Europe helped reverse a downward trend in Title Transfer Facility (TTF) prices, despite a relaxation of the European Union’s (EU) storage goals. Analysts with trading firm Mind Energy wrote that while high temperatures in central Europe are expected to break by next week, limits on nuclear and hydroelectric power sparked a gas price rally. EU gas storage levels reached nearly 59% of capacity at the end of June. Meanwhile, prompt TTF has risen nearly 50 cents through the week to hover near $11.60/MMBtu.
- 0.68 Bcf/d: Freeport LNG reported an operational issue with its Train 2 liquefaction unit Tuesday night, impacting around 0.68 Bcf/d in production capacity. Freeport told Texas regulators the train experienced a compressor issue that caused the system to trip and resulted in almost 13 hours of flaring. Feed gas nominations to the facility on Stratton Ridge were reported at 55% of capacity by Wednesday afternoon, according to Wood Mackenzie pipeline data.
- 16.3 million Dth: Despite an outage at Freeport and extended maintenance at other facilities, U.S. feed gas demand has returned to near peak nominations. Nominations have risen to above 16 million Dth Wednesday from the 15 million Dekatherms (Dth) range at the end of June, according to NGI calculations of pipeline data. Feed gas flows to Cheniere Energy Inc.’s Corpus Christi LNG have continued to recover, while Sabine Pass LNG has held firm through the week at around two-thirds of pipeline capacity. Nominations to Plaquemines LNG have also continued to climb as the second phase of modular trains begin commissioning.
- 2029: Delfin Midstream Inc. has reserved equipment and locked in an early work agreement for the first phase of its 13.2 million ton/year LNG export project ahead of a targeted final investment decision (FID) this fall. The Houston-based company disclosed it has booked manufacturing capacity from Siemens Energy Inc. for four turbines and inked a deal between its contractors, Black and Veatch Inc. and Samsung Heavy Industries. Delfin expects to reach FID on the first of three planned floating LNG production vessels between September-December, with delivery targeted for 2029.
Serbia Explores Future Hydrogen Transport for Natural Gas Pipeline Network --Serbia's natural gas pipeline transmission system operator, Transportgas Srbija, has invited bids for a comprehensive study into the technical feasibility of integrating hydrogen into the nation's gas network. The initiative underscores Serbia's commitment to decarbonization and energy security, aligning with broader European energy transition goals.According to Transportgas, the study will assess the volume of hydrogen that can be transported through existing pipelines and the impact of blending hydrogen with natural gas on the transmission system and key industrial consumers. The company highlighted the growing importance of hydrogen as an alternative fuel. They noted Energy Community's objectives for defining natural gas quality across Southeast European transmission systems, focusing on hydrogen integration.A key aspect of the research will be determining the maximum percentage of hydrogen that can be safely blended with natural gas without compromising equipment or increasing transmission losses. The selected consultant will also define the blending procedure, identify optimal blending points, and pinpoint suitable locations for hydrogen production and storage within Serbia.The project will also analyze the transport capacity of existing pipelines, considering varying natural gas qualities from diverse supply routes, including the recently constructed Balkan Stream pipeline and the interconnector with Bulgaria, which have diversified Serbia's gas supplies.Major Serbian gas consumers — including Hesteelworks Ĺ˝elezara Smederevo, the Rafinerija nafte PanÄŤevo oil refinery, and various power and heating plants — will be evaluated for the impact of a hydrogen-natural gas blend on their operations. After evaluation, the consultant will recommend necessary investments, such as new gas pipelines and infrastructure upgrades, and propose regulatory changes to facilitate hydrogen's introduction into the gas grid. Bids for the study are due by July 23, with the selected consultant having 180 days to complete the report.
Ukraine gas reserves exceed 8 billion cubic meters: Analyst - Gas reserves in Ukrainian storage facilities exceeded 8 billion cubic meters (bcm) as of June 28 but remain at the lowest level in the last 11 years, analysis firm ExPro said on Tuesday. Ukraine has been forced to ramp up gas withdrawals from storage and increase imports this winter and spring after Russian missile attacks damaged production facilities in the east of the country. ExPro said that storage facilities were almost 26 percent full, and the volumes were 19.6 percent, or by 1.9 bcm, lower than at the same date year earlier. The consultancy said gas injection volumes remained higher than last year and between June 1 and 28, 1.25 bcm of gas was pumped into storage facilities. It noted that since the beginning of this year’s gas injection season on April 17, 2.6 bcm of gas had been pumped into storage facilities. Ukrainian energy minister said last month Ukraine had to import at least 4.6 bcm of gas for the 2025/26 winter heating season.
US judge orders Argentina to sell 51% stake in oil firm YPF -Argentina has been ordered by a US judge to sell its majority stake in oil firm YPF, a move immediately criticized by the South American country's President Javier Milei A federal judge in New York ordered Argentina on Monday to sell its majority stake in oil firm YPF, the latest blow to Buenos Aires in a decade-long international legal saga. Argentine President Javier Milei, who is on a campaign to stabilize his country's struggling economy, promptly vowed to appeal.
Oil spill into River Yare prompts eco investigation --An investigation has been launched after an oil leak into the River Yare. The Yare Valley Society, a group of volunteers who work to maintain the Yare Valley as a place of enjoyment, were made aware of the spill last week.They reported it to the Environment Agency, who subsequently launched an investigation.The agency, which is responsible for land regulation, floods, waste management and conservation, cannot say exactly where the spill happened while the investigation is ongoing.However, it has confirmed it is looking into an area in western Norwich.Spilt oil in a river can cause harm to aquatic species by poisoning fish and plant life. Rachel Taylor, vice chairwoman for the Yare Valley Society, said: "A diesel leak is something that happens from time to time. "We also get oil slicks further upriver. It's very unpleasant."The last time I remember it happening in the River Yare was about 18 months ago." A spokeswoman for the Environment Agency said: "Our staff, along with staff from Anglian Water, attended the reported location on Tuesday morning, June 24, and deployed booms to control any oil in the watercourse."Monitoring has shown that no further oil has entered the river at the location and the oil that was in the river is dispersing."Investigations are ongoing to identify the source of the pollution." While investigations continue, bosses at the Environment Agency are also working to tackle pollution in the River Wensum.They have been doubling down on wastewater compliance to decrease the level of waste in the city's waterways.It comes as groups in the city have protested against pollution in the river.The Environment Agency said it has completed 730 compliance inspections across the East of England in a bid to improve water quality.
Oil spill forces 57 Marabella residents to evacuate -- Fifty-seven residents from Marabella have so far been evacuated following an oil spill in the Marabella River. They are currently being housed at the Royal Hotel, as Heritage Petroleum Company Ltd continues clean-up operations. Guardian Media was told that the company received a report about the oil spill around 10 a.m. yesterday and traced the source of the leak to a 12-inch pipeline near the Brian Lara Stadium. A Heritage official said the leak has been contained, and clean-up operations are ongoing at various points along the river course. San Fernando West MP and Education Minister Dr Michael Dowlath, Claxton Bay MP Hansen Narinesingh, and councillor John Michael Alibocas visited the scene. They assured that Energy Minister Dr Roodal Moonilal has been apprised of the situation and said they are working assiduously to ensure the residents are safe and comfortable, and that the matter is resolved as quickly as possible.
Oil tanker with a million barrels explodes after docking in Russian ports - The oil tanker Vilamoura, carrying 1 million barrels of oil, exploded off the coast of Libya. The vessel called at Russian ports twice, reports Bloomberg. The Vilamoura tanker is being towed to Greece, where experts will assess the damage. According to a representative of TMS Tankers, the explosion led to the flooding of the engine room, and water is entering the hull. The exact cause of the incident is still unknown. Vilamoura called at the Russian port of Ust-Luga in early April, where it loaded oil of Kazakh origin. In May, it also called at the Caspian Pipeline Consortium terminal near the Russian port of Novorossiysk, which loads mostly Kazakh oil. According to the management company, there was no environmental pollution after the incident. All crew members are safe. Vilamoura changed its course after the incident and is heading to Greece. The vessel is expected to arrive at one of the ports to undergo technical diagnostics and assess the extent of the damage. According to the consulting company Vanguard Tech, since the beginning of the year, similar explosions have occurred on four other vessels. All of them had previously called at Russian ports. After such incidents, shipowners began using divers and underwater drones to check the hulls of ships for mines and other threats. Oil and gas are the main sources of Russia's war budget. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy proposes to cut the price cap for Russian oil in half, to $30, which would make Moscow much more peaceful. Senator Lindsey Graham says that US President Donald Trump supports a bill to impose 500% tariffs on countries that buy Russian oil.
Shell Confirms Plan To Acquire TotalEnergies Stake In Nigeria’s Deepwater Bonga Field - Shell Nigeria Exploration and Production Company (SNEPCo), a subsidiary of Shell Plc, on Monday confirmed plan to acquire TotalEnergies’ 12.5 % stake in deepwater Bonga Field. Consequence upon this, an agreement has been signed by the two parties. Shell confirmed the divestment in a statement on Monday, saying the transaction, when completed, will increase its interest in the OML 118 PSC from 55% to 67.5%. The stake is in the OML 118 Production Sharing Contract (OML 118 PSC), an oil mining lease offshore Nigeria that includes the Bonga field. SNEPCo is the operator under the OML 118 PSC. It currently produces from the Bonga field via the Bonga Floating Production Storage and Offloading (FPSO) vessel and announced the development of the Bonga North field in December 2024. “Following our final investment decision on Bonga North last year, this acquisition brings another significant investment in Nigeria’s deep-water that contributes to sustained liquids production and growth in our Upstream portfolio,” said Peter Costello, Shell’s President, Upstream. The transaction is subject to regulatory approvals and other closing conditions. The transaction is expected to be completed before the end of this year. SNEPCo (55%) operates the Bonga field in partnership with Esso Exploration and Production Nigeria Ltd. (20%), Nigerian Agip Exploration Ltd. (12.5%), and TotalEnergies EP Nigeria Ltd. (12.5%), on behalf of the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPC). After completion of the transaction, SNEPCo will hold a 67.5% stake, alongside Esso Exploration and Production Nigeria Ltd. (20%) and Nigerian Agip Exploration Ltd. (12.5%). This targeted investment contributes towards growing Shell’s combined Integrated Gas and Upstream total production by 1% per year to 2030 and contributes towards sustaining our 1.4 million barrels per day of liquids production. The Bonga field is a deep-water development located in OML 118, at water depths exceeding 1,000 meters. Production from Bonga began in 2005, with a capacity to produce 225,000 barrels of oil per day. The Bonga field produced its one-billionth barrel of crude oil in 2023.
After Spain Imports Record Amount Of Diesel From Morocco, Experts Point To Russian Sources - A record-breaking increase of diesel imports from Morocco to Spain has raised suspicions within the energy industry that some of the fuel may be of Russian origin. In just two months, from March to April 2025, Spain imported 123,000 tons of diesel from Morocco, more than the entire historical total. The shipments are raising questions about how honest the EU’s energy policy is, which claims it is working to cut off Russian energy but in reality, is often sourcing it through middle countries. According to Spanish newspaper El Pais, there are a number of factors that raise the likelihood that Spain is buying Russian diesel through the backdoor. Besides the sudden increase in diesel from Morocco, a country that Spain does not typically import substantial amounts of diesel from, industry sources say Morocco did not impose sanctions on Russian energy resources after the invasion of Ukraine. El Pais noted that since the beginning of 2025, Morocco has imported over 1 million tons of Russian diesel, accounting for 25 percent of its total imports. It could also be that Morocco is importing diesel from other countries that are also importing Russian diesel and repackaging it to hide its true source. Experts believe the diesel is sent to Morocco and there it is blended with other diesel oils, making it untraceable back to its source. The suspicion is that this fuel is being imported by Rabat, the capital of Morocco, at a lower cost and then re-exported to Spain with a North African country’s certification to mask its origin.
Russia’s Oil Exports Stagnate as Prices Sink and Sanctions Bite -- Russia’s seaborne crude oil shipments barely budged in late June, holding near two-month lows despite a modest uptick from major ports. In the four weeks to June 29, crude exports averaged 3.21 million barrels per day (bpd)—up just 1% from the previous four-week period, according to Bloomberg tracking data. Weekly volumes sat around 3 million bpd, also little changed. While key terminals like Primorsk and Kozmino saw higher flows, declines from smaller ports—including Novorossiysk and Murmansk—nearly canceled out the gains. A total of 28 tankers carried 21 million barrels during the final week of June, only marginally down from the prior week’s 21.89 million barrels, also on 28 tankers. Despite a slight rise in four-week average volumes, the gross value of Russia’s weekly crude exports fell 8% to $1.27 billion—the lowest in a month. The culprit: sharply lower oil prices after U.S. airstrikes on Iranian nuclear sites triggered a market-wide selloff. Urals crude dropped by more than $6 per barrel, to around $58.50, while ESPO crude fell to $63.80. Delivered prices to India slipped to $68.53. Meanwhile, refinery runs inside Russia have remained strong, averaging 5.33 million bpd in the first 25 days of June—130,000 bpd above last year’s levels for the same period. That may help explain why rising OPEC+ quotas haven’t translated into higher exports. Russia was cleared to boost output by 100,000 bpd from March through June, with another 50,000 bpd bump starting in July. The stagnant flows come amid continued financial strain. Russia’s oil and gas profits in Q1 2025 fell 45% year-on-year to $9.9 billion, according to Rosstat, and oil and gas revenues for May were down over 35% from a year earlier. Moscow has cut its full-year oil and gas revenue forecast by 24% following the oil price crash.
Reliance to be No. 1 oil refiner if talks with Rosneft succeed - - If talks between Russian state-owned enterprise, PJSC Rosneft Oil Company, and India’s Reliance Industries go through, the latter may well be on its way to become India’s No. 1 oil refiner, overtaking the state-owned Indian Oil Corporation (IOC). Sources confirm oil giant Rosneft’s top officials have visited India at least thrice in the last one year as they engage in early talks with potential investors, including Reliance Industries, to sell the company’s 49.13 per cent stake in Nayara Energy. Nayara Energy, previously Essar Oil, operates a 20-million tonnes-a-year oil refinery and 6,750 petrol pumps in India. Rosneft had acquired Essar Oil in a USD 12.9-billion deal in 2017, but decided to exit the company in 2024 after being unable to get full financial benefits from its Indian operations, including repatriating earnings, due to international sanctions. Alongside Rosneft, UCP Investment Group, a major Russian financial firm, is also selling its 24.5 per cent stake in Nayara. The rest of Nayara’s ownership includes Trafigura Group (24.5 per cent) and a group of retail shareholders. If a deal is struck, Trafigura too may exit the venture within months on same terms, they said. The stake of Rosneft and UCP was offered to Reliance Industries, Adani Group, Saudi Aramco and state-owned ONGC/IOC combine among others. But the USD 20-billion valuation that Rosneft had put for Nayara was considered too steep a price by almost every potential investor, including the Adani Group, which is now keen to expand its business in the renewable energy sector. Having secured a multi-billion-dollar partnership in city gas and renewable energy space with French energy giant TotalEnergies, Adani’s deal with TotalEnergies includes an agreement that limits future investments in fossil fuel space. The only other serious contender for Nayara’s takeover is Saudi Aramco, the world’s largest oil exporter, which has been nurturing ambitions of having downstream presence in the world’s fastest growing oil market. Aramco had previously agreed to invest in a giant oil refinery-cum-petrochemical complex that state-owned firms had planned to build in Maharashtra, but that project hasn't taken off due to land acquisition delays.
Iraq Claims Top Spot Among OPEC Crude Suppliers to the U.S. -- OPEC’s second-largest producer, Iraq, was the single biggest supplier of crude from the cartel to the United States in May, per data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) cited by Iraqi media outlets Shafaq News and IraqiNews.Iraq ranked first among the 12 OPEC producers in terms of exports to the United States in May. Shipments totaled nearly 7 million barrels of crude, 6.95 million barrels to be precise. The second-largest OPEC supplier to the U.S. was Nigeria with 6.803 million barrels of crude oil exports, followed by Saudi Arabia with 6.208 million barrels of crude.Iraq has boosted exports in recent years, including to the United States, as it hasn’t adhered to its supply quota under the OPEC+ agreements. Iraq, Kazakhstan, and Russia have been overproducing above targets for years.But in May, Iraq cut its crude oil production by 50,000 barrels per day (bpd) to 3.93 million bpd, compared to its target of 4.049 million bpd, according to the latest OPEC data from secondary sources.Iraq is compensating for previous overproduction as it has been one of the main overproducers in the OPEC+ deal for years, alongside Kazakhstan and Russia, non-OPEC members of the OPEC+ pact.Last month, estimates put Iraq’s crude oil exports to the United States surging past 5 million barrels in May, marking Baghdad’s highest monthly volume to U.S. refiners so far this year. The surge reflects sustained U.S. appetite for heavier Middle Eastern grades, with Iraqi crude averaging between 160,000 bpd and 190,000 bpd in May.As OPEC+ maintains voluntary output curbs and U.S. shale growth moderates, Iraq has solidified its position among Washington’s top five crude suppliers.Iraq’s export increase also provides critical fiscal relief for Baghdad, with crude sales accounting for roughly 90% of Iraq’s state revenue. Recent price support near $80 per barrel has further underpinned Iraq’s monthly revenues, helping finance public sector wages and infrastructure projects.
OPEC+'s Output Surge: Navigating Volatility and Investment Opportunities in the Energy Sector - The energy sector is once again at a crossroads as OPEC+ accelerates its oil production increases, aiming to reshape global supply dynamics. On March 3, 2025, the alliance reaffirmed its plan to unwind 2.2 million barrels per day (bpd) of voluntary cuts, starting with a 411,000 bpd monthly hike in May, June, and July. This strategic pivot—driven by low inventories and rising demand—has profound implications for market share, competition with U.S. shale, and the balance between oversupply risks and long-term demand resilience. For investors, the path forward requires discernment between firms with production flexibility and those over-leveraged in a volatile landscape. OPEC+'s "Voluntary Eight" (V8)—Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, UAE, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman—are spearheading this output surge, aiming to reclaim market share lost during the pandemic. The 411,000 bpd monthly increments, totaling 1.233 million bpd by July 2025, signal a shift from gradual cuts to aggressive supply expansion. This move reflects confidence in demand recovery but carries risks: overproduction by members like Kazakhstan (exceeding quotas by 300,000–400,000 bpd due to new Tengiz field capacity) and Iraq's 2 million bpd overproduction since 2024 threaten compliance and market stability. The policy's success hinges on whether OPEC+ can outpace U.S. shale without triggering a price collapse. Shale producers, though slower to ramp up than in prior cycles, remain a formidable competitor. Their break-even costs ($40–$60 per barrel) are lower than OPEC's breakevens, but they require sustained high prices ($70–$80+) to justify capital spending. If OPEC's output surge depresses prices below this threshold, shale growth could stall—a boon for OPEC's market share. Conversely, if prices remain robust, shale could surge, amplifying oversupply risks. Investors should monitor the U.S. rig count and Permian Basin output. A sustained drop in rig activity below 600 units would signal shale's retreat, favoring OPEC. The market's capacity to absorb 1.2 million bpd of new supply in 2025 is uncertain. While emerging markets like India and China drive long-term demand growth, short-term volatility looms. A will reveal whether OPEC's flexibility (pausing hikes if needed) can stabilize prices. Meanwhile, geopolitical factors—like China's energy diplomacy or Middle East tensions—add layers of uncertainty. Long-term demand resilience is underpinned by energy transition challenges. EV adoption and renewables may curb oil demand growth, but petrochemicals, aviation, and maritime sectors will anchor consumption until 2040. The winners in this landscape will be OPEC+ members with production flexibility. Saudi Arabia's Aramco, with spare capacity of ~2 million bpd, can throttle output to stabilize prices, making it a resilient investment. Similarly, UAE's ADNOC and Russia's Rosneft (despite sanctions risks) benefit from low marginal costs and geopolitical clout. NB: that US shale break-even costs ($40–$60 per barrel) are lower than OPEC's breakevens is nonsense; that figure includes national budgets as costs for the OPEC countries...what would shale breakeven costs be if they were forced to cover the US budget deficit?)
Oil prices off to rocky start; OPEC+ supply to rise --Oil prices started the week slightly lower, weighed by easing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and expectations of another production increase from OPEC+ in August, which improved the outlook for global supply amid ongoing demand uncertainty. By 3:30 pm AEST (5:30 am GMT), Brent crude futures for August delivery fell 14 cents, or 0.2%, to $67.63 per barrel. The more active September contract declined 16 cents to $66.64. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude for August shed 30 cents, or 0.5%, to $65.22. Despite last week marking the biggest weekly drop for both benchmarks since March 2023, oil remains on track to finish June with a second consecutive monthly gain of more than 5%. Brent prices spiked above $80 earlier this month after the United States bombed Iran’s nuclear facilities on 13 June, escalating a 12-day conflict that began with Israeli strikes. However, prices retreated sharply to around $67 following U.S. President Donald Trump’s announcement of a ceasefire between Iran and Israel. Adding to the downward pressure, four OPEC+ delegates indicated the group is likely to raise production by 411,000 barrels per day in August. This follows similar output increases for May, June and July, and would mark the fifth monthly hike since OPEC+ began unwinding cuts in April. The next meeting of the group is scheduled for 6 July. Still, concerns over sluggish global demand continue to weigh on sentiment. China’s factory activity contracted for a third consecutive month in June, reflecting weak domestic demand and faltering exports amid continued uncertainty over U.S.-China trade relations.
Oil Prices Steady Ahead of OPEC+ Meeting -- Oil futures were steady Monday morning after having reverted to pre-war levels, shedding the geopolitical risk premium tied to the Israel-Iran war and associated fears of a wider escalation which would affect oil supplies in the region. On Sunday, OPEC+ delegates will meet to set production quotas for August, with another substantial production hike in the cards. Ethanol RINs were higher and ethanol cash prices were unchanged. September corn was up 12 cents at $4.18 and December corn was up 11 1/2 cents at $4.33 1/2. NYMEX-traded WTI for August fell $0.08 barrel (bbl) to trade near $65.44 bbl, and ICE Brent for August delivery slid $0.13 bbl to $67.64 bbl. July RBOB gasoline futures shed $0.0030 to $2.0868 gallon, while the front-month ULSD futures contract advanced $0.0057 to trade near $2.3129 gallon. The U.S. Dollar Index softened 0.166 points to 96.865. Market observers are expecting another 411,000-barrels-per-day (bpd) quota increase for August, for the fourth consecutive month. The producer group has pivoted earlier this year from a strategy solely focused on defending price to one defending market share from non-OPEC producers by considerably hiking oil output. OPEC's strategic shift elevates oversupply risks in the second half of the year as global demand growth is trailing supply growth, depending on how much of the quota increases will materialize. According to OPEC's latest monthly oil market report, OPEC+ collectively produced 180,000 bpd more in May than in April, and production from the eight member countries who had agreed to raise output by a combined 411,000 bpd was up 153,000 bpd month-on-month.
Concerns Over the Geopolitical Tensions in the Middle East Eased -The oil market continued to trade mostly sideways on Monday as the concerns over the geopolitical tensions in the Middle East eased. Also, a possible OPEC+ output increase for August and uncertainty over the global demand outlook weighed on the market. The market has traded sideways within a trading range posted last week after worries about possible supply disruptions in the Middle East dissipated and expectations that OPEC+ members will once again consider another 411,000 bpd increase for August when they meet on Sunday. The market posted a low of $64.50 in overnight trading before it posted a high of $65.82 and settled in a sideways trading range during the remainder of the session. The August WTI contract settled down 41 cents at $65.11 and the August Brent contract went off the board down 16 cents at $67.61. The product markets ended in mixed territory, with the July heating oil contract expiring up 3.86 cents at $2.3458 and the RB market expiring down 10 point at $2.0798. U.S. President Donald Trump said he was not speaking to Iran and was not offering the country “anything”, and he reiterated his assertion that the United States had “totally obliterated” Tehran’s nuclear facilities. On Friday, President Trump dismissed media reports that said his administration had discussed possibly helping Iran access as much as $30 billion to build a civilian-energy-producing nuclear program. According to a Reuters survey, analysts have marginally increased their oil price forecasts after the flare-up of tensions in the Middle East, but increasing OPEC+ supply and a tempered demand outlook continue to weigh on crude. A survey of 40 economists and analysts in June forecast Brent crude will average $67.86/barrel in 2025, up from May’s $66.98/barrel forecast, while U.S. crude is seen at $64.51/barrel, above last month’s $63.35/barrel estimate. Meanwhile, analysts expect global oil demand to grow by an average of over 730,000 bpd in 2025, compared with 775,000 bpd in last month’s survey. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent warned that countries could still face sharply higher tariffs on July 9th even if they are negotiating in good faith, adding that any potential extensions will be up to President Donald Trump. The EIA reported that U.S. crude oil output in April increased 18,000 bpd to 13.468 million bpd from a revised 13.45 million bpd level in March. U.S. crude oil exports fell to 3.883 million bpd in April, down from 4.043 million bpd in March and U.S. total refined oil product exports fell to 2.775 million bpd in April from 3.047 million bpd in March. The EIA also reported that total U.S. oil demand in April increased by 1% or 205,000 bpd on the year to 20.213 million bpd. U.S. distillate demand increased by 2.2% or 82,000 bpd on the year to 3.883 million bpd and U.S. gasoline demand increased by 0.9% or 79,000 bpd on the year to 8.91 million bpd. IIR Energy reported that U.S. oil refiners are expected to shut in about 113,000 bpd of capacity in the week ending July 4th, increasing available refining capacity by 33,000 bpd. Offline capacity is expected to fall to 104,000 bpd in the week ending July 11th..
Oil prices bounce off recent lows; OPEC+ output hike, U.S. trade deals in focus --Oil prices edged higher Tuesday, bouncing off three-week lows with traders awaiting more news on potential trade deals ahead of the latest OPEC+ output meeting. At 08:15 ET (12:15 GMT), Brent oil futures for September rose 0.7% to $67.18 a barrel, climbing from their lowest level since June 11, just before the onset of the Israel-Iran war, while West Texas Intermediate crude futures gained 0.8% to $65.62 a barrel. Oil markets are becoming cautiously optimistic that the Trump administration will be able to agree trade deals, as a July 9 deadline set by President Donald Trump to reach deals with the U.S. draws closer. U.S. President Donald Trump on Monday lashed out against Japan and hinted at potentially ending trade talks with Tokyo, while U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent warned that countries could be slapped with high tariffs despite ongoing trade negotiations. Markets fear that increased trade disruptions will hurt global economic growth, in turn reducing global demand for oil. However, the U.S. and China, the two largest economies in the world, have already come to an agreement, and Canada recently rescinded a tax on the big U.S. technology firms just before the first payments were due, allowing negotiations to restart. Additionally, the European Commission, which coordinates EU trade policy, is pushing three key points in Washington this week as both sides work towards an agreement in principle, with the final details to be ironed out later. Away from trade deals, the focus is squarely on the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies (OPEC+), which is set to meet later this week, with the cartel expected to continue scaling back two years of production cuts. Reuters reported last week that the OPEC+ will increase output by 411,000 barrels per day in August, following similar hikes in May, June, and July. The increase would bring the OPEC+’s total supply increase for the year to 1.78 million barrels per day, although the hike is still smaller than the total number of production cuts enacted by the OPEC+ in the past two years. "Given its strategy shift, we believe the group will continue with these large increases. This would see the full 2.2m b/d of supply brought back online by the end of the third quarter, 12 months ahead of the original schedule," said analysts at ING, in a note. "These larger supply increases should leave the global oil market well supplied for the remainder of the year. It’s set to return to a large surplus in the fourth quarter of this year. Clearly, recent price action suggests the market is mostly focused on this supply. The geopolitical risk premium has eroded fairly quickly following the ceasefire between Israel and Iran. Expectations for a comfortable oil balance, along with a large amount of OPEC spare production capacity, appear to be comforting the market," ING added.
Expectations That OPEC+ Will Announce an Output Hike for August - The oil market remained in its consolidation pattern on Tuesday amid the expectations that OPEC+ will announce an output hike for August at an upcoming meeting, while the market also awaits the outcome of negotiations between the U.S. and its trading partners. The market posted a low of $64.67 in overnight trading before it erased its losses and traded to a high of $65.98. The market’s main focus is 411,000 bpd production increase that OPEC+ is expected to announce for August at its meeting on July 6th. Also, supporting the market was a weaker U.S. dollar, which fell to a 3-½ year low. The market was supported after Iran moved to cut off communication with the IAEA. The market, however, erased its gains once again and traded in sideways trading range during the remainder of the session. The August WTI contract settled up 34 cents at $65.45 and the September Brent contract settled up 37 cents at $67.11. The product markets ended the session in mixed territory, with the heating oil market settling down 1.89 cents at $2.3269 and the RB market settling up 3.06 cents at $2.1003. U.S. President Donald Trump said he plans to full up the U.S. SPR when the market conditions are right. The Financial Times reported that top U.S. trade officials are now seeking narrower agreements with other countries to secure deals before President Donald Trump’s July 9th tariff deadline. The FT said countries that agree on narrower deals would be spared the harsher reciprocal tariffs, but left with an existing 10% levy while talks on other issues continue. President Trump’s reciprocal tariffs are set to kick in on July 9th, after a 90-day pause. Morgan Stanley said Brent crude will likely retrace to around $60/barrel by early next year, with the market being well supplied and geopolitical risk abating following the Israel-Iran de-escalation. The bank added that it sees strong supply growth from non-OPEC countries over 2025-26 in the order of 1 million bpd each year, which would be enough to meet demand growth in the period. It said OPEC continues to unwind its production quota cuts and still expect an oversupply of about 1.3 million bpd in 2026. OPEC+ is expected to approve another output hike on Sunday in a move that would fast-track plans to unwind production cuts a full year ahead of the original schedule. Key members of the alliance have already agreed to a 411,000 bpd increase, three times the initially planned volume, for May, June and July. Another increase in August would mark the fourth consecutive month of large increases, leaving the market well-supplied through year-end. If approved, the hike would push total supply increases since April to nearly 1.8 million barrels a day. The key eight OPEC+ members meeting virtually on Sunday are Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, the U.A.E., Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman. Saudi Arabia will take the majority share of the increases. Kpler data showed that Saudi Arabia increased its crude exports in June by 450,000 bpd from May’s level to its highest level in more than a year. Saudi crude exports increased to 6.33 million bpd in June from 5.88 million bpd in May. U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell reiterated the U.S. central bank plans to “wait and learn more” about the impact of tariffs on inflation before lowering interest rates.
Oil settles up on signs of strong demand, investors await OPEC+ decision (Reuters) - Oil prices edged higher on Tuesday as investors took stock of positive demand indicators, while also treading cautiously ahead of an OPEC+ meeting to decide the group's August output policy.Brent crude settled up 37 cents, or 0.6%, at $67.11 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude settled 34 cents higher, or up around 0.5%, at $65.45 a barrel.The gains were likely due to supportive data from a private-sector survey in China, which showed factory activity returned to expansion in June, said Randall Rothenberg, a risk intelligence expert at U.S. oil brokerage Liquidity Energy.Expectations that Saudi Arabia will raise its August crude oil prices for buyers in Asia to a four-month high as well as firm premiums for Russian ESPO Blend crude oil were also supporting the notion of robust demand, Rothenberg said.Oil's gains were kept in check by expectations that the OPEC+ group will boost its August crude oil output by an amount similar to the outsized hikes agreed in May, June, and July. Four OPEC+ sources told Reuters last week the group plans to raise output by 411,000 barrels per day next month when it meets on July 6.Besides gaining market share from U.S. shale producers, which pumped oil at a record pace in April, according to official data released on Monday, the group has also been trying to punish overproducing members. OPEC+ member Kazakhstan, one of the world's 10 largest oil producers, raised oil production last month to match an all-time high, a source familiar with the data told Reuters on Tuesday. Saudi Arabia, the de facto leader of the OPEC+ group, raised its June crude oil exports to the fastest rate in a year, data from Kpler showed. "These exports are flooding out even faster than the OPEC+ deal implies during the summer, when peak domestic demand typically keeps oil supplies closer to home," In the U.S., crude oil inventories rose by 680,000 barrels in the past week, according to sources citing figures from the American Petroleum Institute. Official data from the Energy Information Administration is due Wednesday at 10:30 a.m. ET. Investors are also watching trade negotiations ahead of U.S. President Donald Trump's tariff deadline of July 9. Trump on Tuesday said he is not thinking of extending the deadline. A trade deal with India was very close, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on Tuesday. Trump also said the U.S. will possibly have a deal with India, but he added that he doubts there will be a deal with Japan. Bessent also warned countries could be notified of sharply higher tariffs, opens new tab despite good-faith negotiations as the July 9 deadline approaches, when tariff rates are scheduled to revert from a temporary 10% level to the ones Trump announced on April 2 and then suspended. The European Union wants immediate relief from tariffs in key sectors as part of any trade deal with the U.S., EU diplomats told Reuters.
Crude Oil Prices Decline As US Trade Policies And Inflation Concerns Rattle Markets -Global oil markets saw renewed volatility on Wednesday, with crude prices edging lower amid rising investor unease over US economic signals, including trade policy uncertainty, inflation risks, and softening energy demand from the world’s top oil consumer. International benchmark Brent crude slipped by 0.1% to settle at $66.99 per barrel, retreating from $67.09 at the previous session’s close. In parallel, the US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude price dipped approximately 0.2%, ending the day at $64.78 per barrel compared to $64.94 earlier. The price retreat came as US President Donald Trump reaffirmed his administration’s intent to proceed with tariffs initially set for July 9. “No, I’m not thinking about the pause. I’ll be writing letters to a lot of countries,” Trump asserted on Tuesday, sending ripples through global markets wary of Washington’s hardline trade tactics. Trump’s tariff rollout, which began with a base rate of 10% on April 2—labeled “Liberation Day” by the administration—has already disrupted global trade dynamics. Though a temporary 90-day exemption followed on April 9, excluding China, analysts warn that this policy stance could hamper economic momentum and depress energy consumption in the near term. Additional pressure mounted as US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell spoke at the European Central Bank’s forum in Portugal. Powell hinted that without Trump’s aggressive trade policies, the Fed might have eased interest rates. “In effect, we went on hold when we saw the size of the tariffs, and essentially all inflation forecasts for the US went up materially as a consequence,” he remarked. Although inflation remains within expected bounds when tariffs are excluded, Powell cautioned that elevated inflation readings may continue through the summer months. The Fed’s current interest rate range stands at 4.25% to 4.5%, a level that tends to dampen appetite for riskier assets like crude oil. Adding to bearish sentiment, the American Petroleum Institute (API) disclosed a surprise increase in US oil inventories—reporting a 680,000-barrel build last week, in contrast to expectations of a 2.26 million-barrel draw. This unexpected rise points to weaker demand conditions in the US energy market. Traders are now closely watching for the official inventory figures from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), due later today. A confirmed inventory build could deepen the prevailing bearish outlook, while a significant drawdown might provide some upside support for prices.
WTI Rebounds As 'Tank Bottoms' Loom At Cushing Hub After Big Draw --Oil prices have pumped and dumped this morning as traders turn their focus to a key OPEC+ production decision and this morning's official supply and production data (following a big draw at the Cushing Hub reported by API overnight)..“Crude oil prices remained roughly unchanged week-on-week as the market focus shifts from the ceasefire in the Middle East to this Sunday’s virtual OPEC+ meeting,” Goldman Sachs analysts including Yulia Zhestkova Grigsby wrote in a note.“We do not expect a large market reaction if OPEC+ decides to increase production on Sunday as consensus has already shifted towards this outcome.” The question this morning is will the official data confirm API's sizable Cushing draw. API
- Crude +680k
- Cushing -1.42mm
- Gasoline +1.92mm
- Distillates -3.46mm
DOE
- Crude +3.845mm - biggest build since Mar 2025
- Cushing -1.493mm - biggest draw since Jan 2025
- Gasoline +4.188mm
- Distillates -1.71mm
A big crude build (the first in six weeks and biggest since March) was offset by a relatively big drop in stocks at the all important Cushing Hub last week as gasoline inventories surged and distillates declined... Tank Bottoms' loom for Cushing once again... Including a small 239k addition to the SPR, last week saw the biggest build in total crude stocks since the start of April...
Oil prices jump 3% as Iran suspends cooperation with UN nuclear watchdog (Reuters) - Oil prices rose 3% on Wednesday as Iran suspended cooperation with the U.N. nuclear watchdog and the U.S. and Vietnam reached a trade deal, but a surprise build in U.S. crude supplies limited price gains somewhat. Brent crude settled $2.00 higher, or 3%, to $69.11 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude gained $2.00, or 3.1%, to $67.45 a barrel. Brent has traded between a high of $69.21 a barrel and low of $66.34 since June 25, as concerns of supply disruptions in the Middle East have ebbed following a ceasefire between Iran and Israel. Iran enacted a law stipulating any future inspection of its nuclear sites by the International Atomic Energy Agency will need approval by Tehran's Supreme National Security Council. The country has accused the agency of siding with Western countries and providing a justification for Israel's air strikes. "The market is pricing in some geopolitical risk premium from Iran's move on the IAEA," said Giovanni Staunovo, a commodity analyst at UBS. "But this is about sentiment, there are no disruptions to oil." Prices also gained after President Donald Trump and Vietnamese state media said the U.S. and Vietnam had struck a trade agreement that sets 20% tariffs on many of the Southeast Asian country's exports following last-minute negotiations. "Risk appetite appears emboldened by an apparent tariff deal between the U.S. and Vietnam today," a Prices pared gains earlier in the session after the U.S. Energy Information Administration said domestic crude inventories rose by 3.8 million barrels to 419 million barrels last week. Analysts in a Reuters poll had expected a drawdown of 1.8 million barrels. Gasoline demand dropped to 8.6 million barrels per day, prompting concerns about consumption in the peak summer driving season. "During summer time, 9 million (bpd) is basically the line in the sand to define a healthy market," "We're now well below that. That's not a good sign." Meanwhile, planned supply increases by OPEC+, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies including Russia, appeared priced in and were unlikely to catch markets off-guard again imminently, Four OPEC+ sources told Reuters last week the group plans to raise output by 411,000 bpd next month when it meets on July 6, a similar amount to the hikes agreed for May, June and July. Saudi Arabia lifted shipments in June by 450,000 bpd from May, according to data from Kpler, its biggest increase in more than a year. However, overall OPEC+ exports are relatively flat to slightly down since March, Staunovo said. He expects this trend to persist over the summer as hot weather drives higher energy demand. The release of the key U.S. monthly employment report on Thursday will shape expectations around the depth and timing of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in the second half of this year, said Tony Sycamore, an analyst at IG. Lower interest rates could spur economic activity, which would in turn boost oil demand.
Oil prices slip lower on U.S. inventory build, OPEC+ output hike expectations -- Oil prices slipped lower Thursday, reversing sharp gains from the prior session after data showing an unexpected build in U.S. inventories raised some concerns over sluggish fuel demand.At 08:20 ET (12:20 GMT), Brent oil futures for September fell 0.4% to $68.86 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate crude futures dropped 0.3% to $67.27 a barrel. Both contracts soared between 2.5% and 3% on Wednesday after Iran’s suspension of cooperation with the United Nations’ nuclear watchdog ramped up fears of a reescalation in hostilities in the Middle East. But the gains did not hold, especially as markets remained on edge over increasing supplies elsewhere, while concerns over slowing demand also weighed. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies, a group known as OPEC+, will meet over the weekend, with recent reports indicating that the cartel plans to boost production by 411,000 barrels per day in August.While the hike is in a similar margin as those seen in July, June, and May, it still highlights the cartel’s plans to steadily unwind two years of sharp production cuts.This unwinding in part is to offset the economic impact of prolonged weakness in oil prices, as well as to punish overproduction within the OPEC’s ranks. Increased OPEC+ production also comes amid calls by U.S. President Donald Trump for the cartel to increase production and keep prices low. Trump has also urged U.S. oil producers to ramp up output."The expectation is that the group will go with another large supply increase of 411k b/d. Given the uncertainty, market participants will probably not want to carry too much risk into the long U.S. weekend," said analysts at ING, in a note. U.S. oil inventories grew by 3.85 million barrels in the week to June 27, government data showed on Wednesday, reversing course after an outsized 5.84 million-barrel draw in the prior week. The print was accompanied by a hefty 4.19 million-barrel build in gasoline inventories, which raised questions about just how strong fuel demand will be this summer season.Oil markets are also on edge over Trump’s trade tariffs, with Washington having signed only a few deals ahead of a July 9 deadline. "Next week marks the end of President Trump’s 90-day reciprocal tariff pause. We could see tariff increases reinstated on some U.S. trading partners if trade deals are not concluded. This leaves a fair amount of uncertainty going into next week," said ING.The focus Thursday was now on key nonfarm payrolls data for June, due for release later in the session. The print is expected to show further cooling in the labor market, pointing to some economic cracks in the world’s biggest fuel consumer.
Oil Slips as US Plans Iran Talks | Rigzone - Oil prices fell after news of planned US-Iran nuclear talks eased Middle East tension risks. Oil declined after Axios reported the US plans to restart nuclear talks with Iran, reducing the risk of another flare-up in the Middle East conflict. West Texas Intermediate crude slumped 0.7% to settle at $67 a barrel, while Brent settled below $69 after the news service said US Middle East envoy Steven Witkoff plans to meet with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi in Oslo next week. That followed a statement from Iran’s top diplomat that the country would continue to engage with the UN’s nuclear watchdog. Crude prices have been buffeted by geopolitical events in recent weeks, first surging after the escalation that included direct US strikes in Iran then declining after Tehran’s retaliation was dismissed as largely symbolic. Renewed negotiations over Iran’s nuclear program would further reduce oil’s already-diminished risk premium. Oil’s slump on Thursday also may have been amplified by low liquidity ahead of Friday’s July Fourth holiday in the US. The Middle East developments squelched some earlier strength in prices that was driven by US jobs data showing stronger-than-expected additions in June. Equity markets rose and the dollar gained, making commodities priced in the currency less appealing. The US also took fresh steps to restrict the trade of Iranian oil, including sanctions on companies and a “shadow fleet” of vessels that help Iran export its crude. Oil had rallied on Wednesday against the backdrop of a market flashing pockets of strength. Diesel’s premium to crude in the US earlier hit the biggest in 15 months after stockpiles of the fuel continued to decline. Spreads on the nearest crude contracts are also pointing to tight supplies, with stockpiles at the key storage hub of Cushing, Oklahoma, sliding. The continued outlook for supply dynamics, however, depends on a meeting between the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies on Sunday. The group has begun discussing another 411,000 barrel-a-day production increase and is largely expected to agree to the significant supply increase, but may move back from the accelerated production increases if prices dip into the $50-a-barrel range, according to Citigroup Inc. “We believe we are on the brink of rolling into more structural softness over the next few months,” said Helge Andre Martinsen, senior energy analyst at DNB Bank ASA, led by a seasonal and structural decline in oil demand growth and OPEC+ continuing with its large output hikes. In Canada, a wildfire emerged in the Fort McMurray area, about 12 miles (20 kilometers) from a major oil sands production site, offering a fresh reminder of the seasonal threat to the country’s supplies. WTI for August delivery fell 0.7% to settle at $67.00 a barrel in New York. Brent for September settlement slipped 0.4% to settle at $68.80 a barrel.
Oil prices ease on US tariff uncertainty ahead of expected OPEC+ output boost (Reuters) - Oil prices fell slightly on Thursday as investors worried that U.S. tariffs could slow energy demand ahead of an expected supply boost by major crude producers. Brent crude futures settled 31 cents, or 0.45%, lower to $68.80 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude fell 45 cents, or 0.67%, to $67 in thin trade on the eve of the Independence Day holiday. . President Donald Trump's 90-day pause on implementation of higher U.S. tariffs ends on July 9, and several large trading partners have yet to clinch trade deals, including the European Union and Japan. Oil traders are worried about the impact on the economy and fuel demand. A preliminary trade deal between the U.S. and Vietnam boosted prices on Wednesday, but overall tariff uncertainty looms large. Also weighing on prices, OPEC+ is expected to agree to raise output by 411,000 barrels per day at its policy meeting this weekend. Also, a private-sector survey showed service activity in China - the world's biggest oil importer - expanded in June at its slowest pace in nine months as demand weakened and new export orders declined. In the U.S., a surprise build in crude inventories also highlighted demand concerns in the world's biggest crude consumer. The U.S. Energy Information Administration said on Wednesday that domestic crude inventories rose by 3.8 million barrels to 419 million barrels last week. Analysts in a Reuters poll had expected a drawdown of 1.8 million barrels. U.S. energy firms this week cut the number of oil rigs by seven to 425, their lowest since September 2021, energy services firm Baker Hughes said in its closely followed report on Thursday. U.S. job growth was solid in June while unemployment rates fell unexpectedly, data showed on Thursday. However, nearly half of the increase in nonfarm payrolls came from the government sector, with private sector gains slowing considerably as industries like manufacturing and retail grappled with Trump's aggressive tariffs on imports. "Thursday's jobs report was stronger than expected, which shows that the resiliency we have been seeing in the economy over the past several months is still intact. We still expect the Federal Reserve to continue its wait-and-see approach on interest rates," Both contracts hit one-week highs on Wednesday as oil producer Iran suspended cooperation with the U.N. nuclear watchdog, raising concerns that the lingering dispute over its nuclear programme could again evolve into armed conflict. Washington imposed new Iran-related sanctions on Thursday as well as sanctions targeting the Hezbollah network, the U.S. Treasury Department website showed. "For now, the market's going to take it in stride, because none of these efforts have worked in the past,"
Oil eases amid US jobs data surprise, tariff jitters -- Oil prices held steady on Friday as a stronger-than-expected United States jobs report bolstered the case for the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates unchanged, while market participants awaited further clarity on President Donald Trump's upcoming tariff measures.By 3:10 pm AEST (5:10 am GMT) Brent crude futures were down $0.22 or 0.3% to US$68.58 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude slipped $0.12 or 0.1% to $66.88. Trading volumes were subdued due to the U.S. Independence Day holiday.Investor sentiment was supported by data released Thursday showing that U.S. employers added 147,000 jobs in June - exceeding expectations - and the unemployment rate unexpectedly dropped to 4.1%.President Trump added a new layer of complexity to market outlooks, announcing that beginning Friday, the U.S. would start sending letters to various countries specifying the tariff rates they will face - ranging between 20% and 30%. The 90-day pause on increased tariffs expires on July 9, with significant U.S. trading partners like the EU and Japan yet to secure agreements.Meanwhile, potential supply increases from the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC+) are also keeping crude prices in check. Four delegates told Reuters the group plans to raise output by 411,000 barrels per day in August as it seeks to reclaim global market share.Geopolitical tensions surrounding Iranian oil exports remained a focal point. The U.S. Treasury announced new sanctions Thursday targeting a network allegedly smuggling Iranian oil disguised as Iraqi crude, as well as a Hezbollah-linked financial institution.These measures are part of the Trump administration’s ongoing “maximum pressure” campaign against Tehran.Meanwhile, ANZ analysts noted an Axios report revealing that the U.S. plans to restart nuclear talks with the OPEC oil producer, potentially reducing the risk of another flare up in the Middle East.
Oil Prices Fall As OPEC+ Signals Potential Output Increase - Oil prices slipped in the global market as signals of renewed nuclear diplomacy between the United States and Iran, expectations of increased OPEC+ output, and concerns over US trade policy combined to ease supply fears. Brent crude, the international benchmark, edged down 0.21% to $68.41 per barrel from the previous close of $68.56. US benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) also dipped 0.12%, trading at $66.24 per barrel compared to $66.32 in the prior session. Investor sentiment was tempered by news of potential direct nuclear discussions between Washington and Tehran in Norway next week, reducing fears of further Middle East escalation. Iran reaffirmed its commitment to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty while announcing changes in its cooperation framework with the International Atomic Energy Agency, following recent tensions over alleged attacks on its nuclear facilities. The diplomatic developments align with a report that senior US and Iranian officials could meet soon in Oslo, potentially opening a new channel for de-escalation in the region. Meanwhile, expectations that OPEC+ will further increase output in August are weighing on prices. The alliance, which has gradually eased voluntary production cuts since April, is set to discuss its next output adjustments at a meeting on Sunday, with Saudi Arabia, Russia, and other key members considering a fifth consecutive monthly hike to stabilise supply amid recovering demand. Adding to the cautious mood in oil markets is the uncertainty surrounding US trade policy. As the July 9 tariff deadline approaches, President Trump indicated that letters will be sent to various countries specifying tariff rates of 20%, 25%, or 30%, heightening concerns over potential impacts on global trade flows and energy demand. The combination of easing geopolitical tensions, anticipated increases in supply, and trade policy uncertainties is keeping oil markets on edge, with traders closely monitoring developments in the coming days.
Oil falls slightly ahead of expected OPEC+ output increase (Reuters) - Oil futures slipped slightly in thin holiday trading on Friday, as the market looked ahead to this weekend's OPEC+ meeting and the likelihood that member countries will decide to raise output. Brent crude futures settled down 50 cents, or 0.7%, at $68.30 a barrel while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was down 50 cents, or 0.75%, at $66.50 just before 1300 EDT (1700 GMT). Trade was sparse due to the U.S. Independence Day holiday. Brent settled about 0.8% higher than last Friday's close and WTI was around 1.5% higher. Eight OPEC+ countries are likely to make another oil output increase for August at a meeting on Saturday in their push to boost market share. The meeting was moved forward a day to Saturday. "If the group decides to increase its output by another 411,000 barrels per day (bpd) in August, as expected, for the fourth successive month, oil balance estimates for the second half of the year will be reassessed and will suggest accelerated swelling in global oil reserves," said PVM analyst Tamas Varga. "There seems to be some profit-taking on concerns that OPEC will raise production by more than expected," said Phil Flynn, senior analyst with the Price Futures group. He added that investors seem to be in wait-and-see mode, getting ready to react to OPEC's move while also watching for implications of U.S. President Donald Trump's massive package of tax and spending cuts, which was set to be signed into law at a ceremony at the White House on Friday. Crude prices also came under pressure from a report on U.S. news website Axios, which said the United States was planning to resume nuclear talks with Iran next week, while Iranian foreign minister Abbas Araqchi said Tehran remained committed to the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.Meanwhile, uncertainty over U.S. tariff policy was back in the spotlight as the end of a 90-day pause on higher levies approaches.European Union negotiators have failed so far to achieve a breakthrough in trade negotiations with the Trump administration and may now seek to extend the status quo to avoid tariff hikes, six EU diplomats briefed on the talks said on Friday.Separately, Barclays said it had raised its Brent oil price forecast by $6 to $72 a barrel for 2025 and by $10 to $70 a barrel for 2026 on an improved demand outlook.
OPEC+ Surprises With Oversized Output Hike - OPEC+ will ramp up oil production more aggressivelythan anticipated in August, accelerating the rollback of its 2023 voluntary supply cuts in a bid to capture market share amid peak summer demand. At a virtual meeting Saturday, eight core members led by Saudi Arabia agreed to add 548,000 barrels per day (bpd) to global supply—exceeding earlier expectations of a 411,000 bpd hike. The move sets the bloc on track to fully unwind 2.2 million bpd of prior cuts nearly a year ahead of schedule.The decision reflects short-term bullish fundamentals: inventories are low, refining margins are strong, and U.S. refiners are processing the most crude for this time of year since 2019. Still, it signals a major pivot from price defense to volume maximization. In a quote to Bloomberg, Onyx Capital’s Harry Tchilinguirian notedthat "It was pointless to keep a notional voluntary cut in place,” said . “Better to get it over with and move on.”But while Saudi Arabia pushes discipline, Kazakhstan is going its own way.In June, Kazakhstan’s crude output surged 7.5% to 1.88 million bpd—well above its official OPEC+ quota of 1.5 million bpd. This matched its all-time production high, largely driven by Chevron’s expansion of the Tengiz mega-field, which alone added 140,000 bpd month-over-month. Kazakhstan’s total oil and condensate production hit 2.15 million bpd in June, up from 2.02 million in May.Despite repeated pledges of OPEC+ compliance, Kazakh authorities admit they can’t enforce production cuts on foreign-led projects like Tengiz or Kashagan. “The republic has no right to enforce production cuts,” Energy Minister Yerlan Akkenzhenov said in May. Chevron, for its part, has stated bluntly that it doesn’t “engage in discussions about OPEC or OPEC+.”Meanwhile, oil prices remain under pressure. Brent futures are down more than 6% year-to-date, and analysts estimate that global inventories have been climbing at 1 million bpd in the first half of 2025, amid cooling demand in China and production increases in non-OPEC countries. Analysts at JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs earlier this year warned prices could dip below $60 in Q4.OPEC+ is betting that strong summer demand will soak up the new supply. But as Kazakhstan pumps freely and Saudi Arabia chases volume, the group’s cohesion faces growing uncertainty.
Iran's President Signs Law Suspending Cooperation With IAEA in Response to US-Israeli Airstrikes - Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian has signed a law suspending Tehran’s cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), a step taken in response to the 12-day US-Israeli war against Iran, which involved US airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities. Under the law, which was approved by Iran’s parliament on June 25, Iran will not allow IAEA inspectors into the country unless the security of its nuclear facilities and its right to peaceful nuclear activities are guaranteed, which is subject to the discretion of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council.Iran’s PressTV also cited the “politically motivated” resolution that was passed by the IAEA’s Board of Governors a day before Israel launched its initial attacks on Iran as a reason for suspending cooperation with the nuclear watchdog. The resolution claimed that Iran wasn’t living up to its commitments under the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), and it was mainly based on alleged nuclear activity from over 20 years ago, which posed no risk of proliferation.PressTV said that the resolution was used as an “excuse” for Israel to launch the war. Both the US and the IAEA had no proof that Iran was working toward a nuclear weapon before Israel launched the war. Iran has also alleged that Israel obtained the names of Iranian nuclear scientists it has killed from the IAEA, and has been critical of the watchdog for remaining silent on Israel’s secret nuclear weapons program. Israel is estimated to have somewhere between 90 and 300 nuclear weapons, and its nuclear arsenal gets very little attention since neither the US nor Israel acknowledges its existence.Before the US-Israeli war on Iran, Tehran made clear that there would be consequences related to the oversight of its nuclear program if its nuclear facilities were attacked.Since the US pulled out of the Obama-era Iran nuclear deal, known as the JCPOA, Tehran has increased the activity of its civilian nuclear program in response to US and Israeli pressure. The US withdrew from the agreement in 2018, and after over a year, Tehran began slowly increasing its uranium enrichment levels beyond the 3.67% limit set by the deal.Iran initially brought its uranium enrichment to 4.5% but raised it to 20% in 2021 following the Israeli assassination of Iranian nuclear scientist Mohsen Fakhrizadeh. Later that year, Iran began enriching some uranium at 60% in response to an Israeli covert attack on its Natanz nuclear facility. Hawks point to the 60% enrichment to claim that Iran was racing toward a bomb since it’s a step away from enriching at 90%, which is needed for weapons-grade uranium. But Iran made clear that it was willing to reduce enrichment levels back down to 3.67% as part of a deal with the US that includes sanctions relief.Now, it’s unclear if negotiations between the US and Iran will resume, as the recent talks were used as a cover to keep Iran off guard before Israel launched its bombing campaign. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi has said that Tehran needs time to decide whether it will engage in more negotiations with the US.
Israeli Bombing of Iran's Evin Prison Killed 71 - Iran’s judiciary announced on Sunday that Israel’s June 23 bombing of the Evin Prison in Tehran killed 71 people, a number that’s been corroborated by a US-based rights group that’s critical of the Iranian government.“During the attack on the Evin Prison, 71 people — including prison administrative staff, soldiers, convicted inmates, families of the prisoners who had come for visitation or legal- follow-up, and people living nearby — were martyred,” said Asghar Jahangir, a spokesman for the judiciary, who said the attack was a “full-fledged crime.”Jahangir said that the bombing occurred during visitation hours when inmates were meeting with their families and social workers. According to the US-based Human Rights Activists in Iran (HRAI), at least 35 of those killed were staff members, two were inmates, one was a woman visiting a judge about her imprisoned husband, and another person was killed while walking near the prison. The rest have yet to be identified by the group.According to Israeli media, the strike on the prison, which is known to hold political prisoners, was an apparent effort to help prisoners escape. Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz confirmed that Israel struck the prison but didn’t give an official reason for the attack. The Iranian government has said more than 600 Iranians were killed in the 12 days of Israel bombings, while the HRAI has put the toll significantly higher, saying 1,190 were killed. Out of the 1,190, the HRAI’s news agency,HRANA, has identified 436 civilians and 435 military personnel, while 319 remain unidentified. The HRANA said that at least 65 children and 49 women were killed, and it released the names of 39 children who have been identified. The organization also recorded the killing of five doctors and four aid workers in strikes that targeted hospitals and other medical infrastructure.
US Refueled Israeli Jets Throughout Iran War - US military tanker aircraft refueled Israeli jets throughout the 12-day US-Israeli war against Iran to ease the burden on Israel’s limited and aging fleet of tankers, Israel Hayom has reported. The report said that “hundreds of aerial refuelings were conducted for Israeli fighter jets flying to Iran” during the 12 days of attacks on Iran. It was always believed that Israel wouldn’t be able to launch significant airstrikes on Iran without the US supporting the attacks with refueling. In the first days of the 12-day war, dozens of US KC-135s, KC-46s, and other tanker aircraft were spotted by flight trackers leaving the United States and heading east across the Atlantic Ocean. US officials confirmed that the tanker deployment was related to the Middle East, and the Israel Hayomreport said that some of them were used to refuel Israeli jets. Besides the refueling, the US also supported Israel’s attacks on Iran by providing intelligence, helping intercept Israeli missiles and drones, and eventually launching its own airstrikes on three Iranian nuclear facilities using B-2 bombers, a fleet of fighter jets, and a submarine. It’s unclear how much the 12-day war cost the US, but it must be in the billions, as a report from Military Watch Magazine estimated that the US used 15% to 20% of its global THAAD anti-missile arsenal, which comes at a cost of at least $800 million. The US is believed to have two of its seven THAAD missile defense systems stationed in Israel, along with US troops to operate them.
IAEA Chief Says Iran Could Resume Enriching Uranium Within Months - Rafael Grossi, the head of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), has said that Iran could likely resume enriching uranium within a few months despite the US and Israeli attacks on its nuclear facilities.“They can have, you know, in a matter of months, I would say, a few cascades of centrifuges spinning and producing enriched uranium, or less than that,” Grossi told CBS News. He also acknowledged that the fate of Iran’s stockpile of uranium enriched at 60% is unclear.President Trump has insisted that Iran’s nuclear facilities have been “obliterated” and that the bombing campaign set back the nuclear program decades, but he is also threatening to bomb Iran again if it moves to restart its uranium enrichment program.When asked on Friday if he would bomb the country again if it enriched at a level that “concerned” him, Trump replied, “Sure, without question.” He also said he wasn’t concerned about any “secret” Iranian nuclear sites.In the wake of the bombing campaign, Iran has taken steps to reduce oversight on its nuclear program and suspend cooperation with the IAEA. Iranian officials have criticized the IAEA and Grossi for their role in the events leading up to the war and the lack of condemnation of the US and Israeli attacks on Iran’s nuclear sites, and have rejected Grossi’s request to visit the bombed sites.“The IAEA and its Director-General are fully responsible for this sordid state of affairs. [Grossi’s] insistence on visiting the bombed sites under the pretext of safeguards is meaningless and possibly even malign in intent,” Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi wrote on X on Friday.The IAEA and the US had no evidence that Iran was seeking a nuclear weapon before Israel launched its war on June 13, but both parties hyped the threat of Iran’s nuclear program even though Tehran made it clear it was willing to significantly reduce its uranium enrichment levels as part of a deal with the US for sanctions relief. Iran has also alleged that Israel obtained the names of Iranian nuclear scientists from the IAEA. During the 12-day war, Israel killed at least 14 Iranian nuclear scientists, including Sedighi Saber, who was killed along with 12 members of his family.
Israel’s ‘Militarized’ Gaza Aid Plan Constitutes a ‘War Crime’ – UN OHCHR -- The UN human rights office called for an investigation into the deaths of the over 400 Palestinians killed by Israeli forces near the aid distribution points in Gaza since May 27. Israel’s “militarized humanitarian assistance mechanism” in the Gaza Strip is “in contradiction with international standards on aid distribution,” the UN human rights office (OHCHR) has warned, pointing out that the “weaponization of food” constitutes “a war crime.”“The weaponization of food for civilians, in addition to restricting or preventing their access to life-sustaining services, constitutes a war crime and, under certain circumstances, may constitute elements of other crimes under international law,” OHCHR spokesperson Thameen al-Kheetan said at a press briefing on Tuesday.He said the aid mechanism “endangers civilians, and contributes to the catastrophic humanitarian situation in Gaza.”“Desperate, hungry people in Gaza continue to face the inhumane choice of either starving to death or risk being killed while trying to get food,” al-Kheetan stressed.Over 410 Palestinians have reportedly been killed by Israeli forces since Israel’s US-backed Gaza Humanitarian Foundation (GHF) began operating on May 27, the OHCHR spokesperson stated.The Israeli army, he stressed, “has shelled and shot Palestinians trying to reach the distribution points, leading to many fatalities.”At least 93 others “have also reportedly been killed by the Israeli army” while attempting to approach “the very few aid convoys” of the UN and other humanitarian organisations, he added, while at least 3,000 Palestinians have been injured in these incidents.“Each of these killings must be promptly and impartially investigated, and those responsible must be held to account,” the UN official stated.“The killing and wounding of civilians resulting from the unlawful use of firearms constitute a grave breach of international law, and a war crime,” he emphasized.
Israeli settlers rampage at a military base in the West Bank— Dozens of Israeli settlers rampaged around a military base in the Israeli-occupied West Bank, setting fires, vandalizing military vehicles, spraying graffiti and attacking soldiers, the military said. Sunday night’s unrest came after several attacks in the West Bank carried out by Jewish settlers and anger at their arrests by security forces attempting to contain the violence over the past few days. More than 100 settlers on Wednesday evening entered the West Bank town of Kfar Malik, setting property ablaze and opening fire on Palestinians who tried to stop them, Najeb Rostom, head of the local council, said. Three Palestinians were killed after the military intervened. Israeli security forces arrested five settlers. “No civilized country can tolerate violent and anarchic acts of burning a military facility, damaging IDF property and attacking security personnel by citizens of the country,” Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said. Footage on Israeli media showed dozens of young, religious men typically associated with “hilltop youth,” an extremist movement of Israeli settlers who occupy West Bank hilltops and have been accused of attacking Palestinians and their property. The footage showed security forces using stun grenades as dozens of settlers gathered around the military base just north of Ramallah. The Israeli military released photos of the infrastructure burned in the attack, which it said included “systems that help thwart terrorist attacks and maintain security.” Far-right Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir, who has often defended Israelis accused of similar crimes, offered a rare condemnation of Sunday’s violence. “Attacking security forces, security facilities, and IDF soldiers who are our brothers, our protectors, is a red line, and must be dealt with in full severity. We are brothers,” he wrote on X.
66 children in Gaza have died from malnutrition due to US-Israeli starvation campaign - At least 66 children have died of malnutrition in Gaza during the US-Israeli genocide, Gaza’s government media office said this weekend, as mass hunger continues to skyrocket in the besieged enclave. Announcing the malnutrition deaths, the government media office accused Israel of “deliberate use of starvation as a weapon to exterminate civilians.” Earlier this month, the United Nations Children’s Fund (UNICEF) said that malnutrition is surging in Gaza at an “alarming” rate, with 112 children admitted for treatment with malnutrition every single day since the start of 2025. In June alone, over 5,000 children between 6 months and 5 years of age have been diagnosed with malnutrition. This represents a 50 percent increase from May and a 150 percent increase from February. UNICEF noted that “Of the 5,119 children admitted in May, 636 children have severe acute malnutrition (SAM), the most lethal form of malnutrition. These children need consistent, supervised treatment, safe water, and medical care to survive—all of which are increasingly scarce in Gaza today.” UNICEF Regional Director Edouard Beigbeder said in a statement, “In just 150 days, from the start of the year until the end of May, 16,736 children—an average of 112 children a day—have been admitted for treatment for malnutrition in the Gaza Strip. ... Every one of these cases is preventable. The food, water, and nutrition treatments they desperately need are being blocked from reaching them. Man-made decisions that are costing lives.” UNICEF warned that malnutrition will only continue to surge unless the Israeli blockade is lifted. Malnutrition in Gaza was nonexistent 20 months ago, UNICEF noted. “[With] the blockade and the enforced starvation, children across Gaza have become weak,” Dr. Susan Marouf of the Friends of Patients Medical Society in Gaza City told Al Jazeera. “We managed to help some of the cases and reduce the level of severity. Others, tragically, developed much worse conditions.” The Israeli military has largely shut down the provision of food by legitimate humanitarian organizations in Gaza, including the United Nations. Instead, the US and Israel have created a pseudo-humanitarian organization called the “Gaza Humanitarian Foundation” (GHF), which lures hungry Gazans to distribution points where they are regularly massacred by Israeli troops. In at least 19 separate instances over the past month, Israeli troops have killed civilians by opening fire on them at GHF distributions, killing over 550 people. On Sunday, Israeli forces carried out yet another massacre at an aid distribution site, killing at least five people. Last week, Haaretz published an investigation featuring interviews with Israeli troops, who said they were repeatedly ordered to open fire on unarmed crowds of aid seekers in an operation whose name apparently references the homicidal “red light, green light” game in the fictional Squid Games television series. The operations of the Gaza Humanitarian Foundation have been condemned by genuine humanitarian organizations, with UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres saying, “It is killing people. … People are being killed simply trying to feed themselves and their families. The search for food must never be a death sentence.”
Israeli Forces Kill 112 Palestinians in Gaza Over 24 Hours - Gaza’s Health Ministry said on Tuesday that Israeli forces killed 112 Palestinians and wounded 463 over the previous 24-hour period as relentless US-backed Israeli strikes continued to pound targets across the Strip.The Health Ministry said that the bodies of four other Palestinians killed in previous Israeli attacks were recovered. “There are still a number of victims under the rubble and on the streets, and ambulance and civil defense crews cannot reach them,” the ministry wrote on Telegram.Hospital sources told Al Jazeera that at least 16 Palestinians were killed on Tuesday while attempting to get aid. The Health Ministry said that since the US and Israeli-backed Gaza Humanitarian Foundation (GHF) began operating at the end of May, more than 600 aid seekers have been killed. The Israeli military admitted on Monday that its forces had killed some civilians near GHF aid sites but disputed the Health Ministry’s numbers, claiming they’re an exaggeration. The admission came after aninvestigation by Haaretz revealed that IDF troops had been given orders to fire on unarmed Palestinians attempting to reach GHF distribution sites to drive them away or disperse them, even though they posed no threat.Despite the attention on the aid massacres, the killings continue. Israeli airstrikes and artillery shelling also pounded targets across Gaza on Tuesday, including in Khan Younis, southern Gaza, where at least 10 people were killed in the bombing of a house.Israeli strikes also hit the Zeitoun area of Gaza City in the north, where at least eight Palestinians were killed. Israeli attacks also targeted central Gaza, where at least two Palestinians were killed in the al-Maghazi refugee camp. An overnight attack on Zawayda, central Gaza, leveled a home,killing at least six people. Palestinians in Gaza are continuing to face malnutrition under the Israeli siege and restrictions on aid, and a 29-year-old man died of starvation on Tuesday, a few days after two infants died due to shortages of baby formula.
Israeli Forces Kill 139 Palestinians in Gaza Over 24 Hours - Gaza’s Health Ministry said on Wednesday that Israeli forces killed at least 139 Palestinians and wounded 487 over the previous 24-hour period, as US-backed Israeli strikes have ramped up across the Strip and the IDF continues to kill people seeking aid.The Health Ministry said that the bodies of three people killed by previous Israeli attacks were also recovered from the rubble. “There are still a number of victims under the rubble and on the streets, and ambulance and civil defense crews cannot reach them,” the ministry wrote on Telegram.Al Jazeera reported that at least 11 Palestinians were killed on Wednesday while waiting for aid. The Health Ministry said that a total of 39 aid seekers were killed over the past 24 hours, bringing the total number of Palestinians killed while attempting to get food since the US and Israeli-backed Gaza Humanitarian Foundation (GHF) began operating at the end of May to 640.Israeli media has confirmed that Israeli troops have been ordered to fire on unarmed Palestinians, and the IDF has admitted to killing civilians near aid sites, though it disputes the Health Ministry’s numbers. Despite the revelations, the aid massacres haven’t impacted US support for Israel, and the Trump administration is also now funding the GHF.Israeli strikes on Wednesday included the bombing of a building sheltering displaced Palestinians in the Zeitoun neighborhood of Gaza City, killing 17 people. An airstrike in a different part of Gaza City killed Dr. Marwan al-Sultan, the director of the Indonesian Hospital, along with several of his family members.An expansion of Israeli operations was reported in northern Gaza, and at least one Israeli soldier was killed in the area. In southern Gaza, heavy Israeli strikes hit tents sheltering displaced Palestinians, killing at least six people in Khan Younis.
Israeli Airstrike Kills Gaza Hospital Director Along With His Family - On Wednesday, an Israeli airstrike on an apartment in Gaza City killed Dr. Marwan al-Sultan, the director of the Indonesian hospital, as the Israeli military continues to kill medical workers and decimate Gaza’s healthcare infrastructure.According to The Associated Press, al-Sultan was killed alongside his wife, his daughter, and son-in-law. Other reports say his sister was also among the dead.According to Haaretz, the Indonesian hospital has been out of service since May 21 after an Israeli airstrike destroyed its generators. Al-Sultan had been quoted by many media outlets, warning of the catastrophic destruction of Gaza’s medical infrastructure.According to Healthcare Workers Watch (HWW), a Palestinian medical organization, al-Sultan’s killing marks the 70th healthcare worker killed by the Israeli military in Gaza in the past 50 days.“The killing of Dr Marwan al-Sultan by the Israeli military is a catastrophic loss to Gaza and the entire medical community, and will have a devastating impact on Gaza’s healthcare system,” said Muath Alse, director of HWW, according to The Guardian.“This is part of a much longer and systematic atrocious targeting of healthcare workers sanctioned by impunity. This is a tragic loss of life, but also an obliteration of their decades of lifesaving medical expertise and care at a time when the situation facing Palestinian civilians is unfathomably catastrophic,” Alse added.The Guardian report said that among the healthcare workers killed over the past 50 days were “three other doctors, the chief nurses of the Indonesian hospital and al-Nasser children’s hospital, one of Gaza’s most senior midwives, a senior radiology technician, and dozens of young medical graduates and trainee nurses. On June 6, the first day of Eid, nine healthcare workers were killed in one day in airstrikes in the north of Gaza, where they were sheltering with their families.”A May 25 Israeli airstrike on a home in Khan Younis killed nine out of 10 children of Doctors Alaa al-Najjar and Hamdi al-Najjar. Alaa was working as a pediatrician at the Nasser hospital when the strike hit her family, and Hamdi was injured in the attack, succumbing to his wounds a few days later. Alaa and her only surviving child, 11-year-old Adam, who was badly maimed, have since been evacuated to Italy for medical treatment.
Israeli Forces Massacre 118 Palestinians in Gaza Over 24 Hours - Gaza’s Health Ministry said on Thursday that Israeli forces killed at least 118 Palestinians and wounded 581 over the previous 24-hour period as heavy US-backed Israeli strikes continued across the Strip and Israeli troops continued to shoot people seeking aid.Thursday marks the third day in a row that the Health Ministry reported a death toll of more than 100. Based on the ministry’s numbers, which studies have found are likely a significant undercount, Israeli forces killed 369 Palestinians over a 72 hours.Israeli attacks on Thursday included massacres of children. According toThe Associated Press, an overnight strike on tents sheltering displaced Palestinians killed 13 members of one family, including six children under the age of 12. Two children, including a six-year-old girl, were among eight people reported killed by an Israeli strike that hit near a stand selling falafel in central Gaza.An Israeli strike on a school sheltering displaced Palestinians in Gaza City killed 15 people. The breakdown of the casualties is unclear, but photos of the funeral for the victims at Al-Shifa Hospital show several tiny bodies wrapped in shrouds.Medical sources told AP that five Palestinians were killed by Israeli forces along roads while attempting to reach distribution sites run by the US and Israeli-backed Gaza Humanitarian Foundation (GHF), and another 40 were killed while waiting for UN aid trucks in various parts of Gaza.The Health Ministry said that since the GHF began operating in Gaza at the end of May, 652 Palestinians have been killed while seeking aid. The aid massacres have continued despite more attention on the issue following a report from Haaretz that revealed IDF troops had been given orders to fire on unarmed people near GHF sites.The AP also reported that American contractors posted at the aid sites have also been using live ammunition and stun grenades to disperse civilians near the distribution sites.
Israel ‘Disappeared’ around 377,000 Palestinians in Gaza since 2023 – Report --At least 377,000 Palestinians in Gaza have “disappeared” due to Israel’s ongoing genocidal war on the enclave since October 2023, a new report published via Harvard Dataverse revealed. Using data-driven analysis, including spatial mapping and location data, the report by Israeli professor Yaakov Garb this month scrutinizes how Israel’s aid blockade on the enclave and attacks on Palestinians led to a considerable decline in the total population.The official death toll, according to Gaza’s Health Ministry, is just under 60,000, but, as per Garb’s findings, the figure may be much higher.Prior to Israel’s military operation, Gaza’s population was estimated at 2.227 million, while current official estimates are 1.85 million people. Citing maps based on Israeli army estimates, the report indicates that the remaining population in Gaza City is around 1 million, with 500,000 in Mawasi and 350,000 in central Gaza. The figures leave 377,000 people unaccounted for, with half of the total believed to be children. These “missing individuals are not merely statistical discrepancies,” the Middle East Monitor (MEMO) reported, citing the report.“They include civilians in northern Gaza, subjected to the most intense bombardment; residents of Rafah’s decimated eastern districts; families trapped in complete communication blackouts; those killed in attacks; and others buried beneath the rubble,” MEMO added. Garb’s report criticized the US-backed Israeli aid distribution mechanism for not adhering to humanitarian principles. “Overall, these aid compounds seem to reflect a logic of control, not assistance, and it would be a misnomer to call them humanitarian aid distribution hubs,” Garb stated.He said they “do not adhere to humanitarian principles, and much of their design and operation is guided by other objectives, which undermine their declared purpose.”As with the “advance warning” evacuation notices described in earlier reports, the “ostensibly humanitarian measures seem to be less about adhering to international humanitarian law and practice, and more about making a show of doing so,” Garb noted.“If an attacker cannot adequately and neutrally feed a starving population in the wake of a disaster it is ongoingly creating, it is obligated to allow other humanitarian agencies to do so,” he stated.
Anti-Genocide Activism Is Terrorism In The Empire Of Lies - Caitlin Johnstone - British police have been arresting anti-genocide protesters for holding signs expressing support for activist group Palestine Action, which London has now officially designated a terrorist group for putting red paint on war planes that were being used in the Gaza holocaust.That’s right, welcome to the empire, where peace activists are called terrorists, where hospitals are called military bases, where facts are called blood libel, where people opposing genocide are called hateful Nazis, where genocidal soldiers are a protected group and chanting for their death is a hate crime.Israel has banned journalists from Gaza in order to hide its war crimes, making doctors and other specialists the de facto western reporters on the ground. And they’re all reporting the same thing about what they are seeing.Part of the problem is how normies who don’t follow this stuff closely cannot believe Israel could be as evil as we’re saying it is. They’re often like “Oh yeah right, they’re just killing civilians because they’re evil and want Palestinians to die.” Which would make sense as an objection if you hadn’t been following Israel’s pattern of behavior from day to day and weren’t familiar with the way Israelis talk about Palestinians whenever they’re speaking to each other in Hebrew instead of addressing the western press. Israel’s public image is somewhat protected by the fact that its behavior is so profoundly evil that simply talking about it strains credulity among the uninformed, in the same way you sound like a crazy conspiracy theorist if you talk about some of the things the CIA has openly admitted to doing in the past. Many people literally cannot believe anyone could be as evil as Israel is, so the true extent of their crimes go unseen.
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