The Composition of the FOMC -It is critical that the Fed stay independent, data driven, and immune to political pressure. This is also true for the Federal statistical agencies, and the firing of the highly respected BLS commissioner on Friday (because of the bad employment report) is very concerning. The U.S. Senate must ensure that the next BLS commissioner is respected, data driven, and immune to political pressure. On Friday, Fed Governor Adriana Kugler resigned. This created some concern that she was leaving early and creating a vacancy at a crucial time at the Fed. The Fed needs to be independent, data driven, and not subject to political whims. In the case of Dr. Kugler, she was appointed to an unexpired term, and her term was scheduled to end in January 2026 (just six months from now). It is likely she left a little early to be available at the start of a school year (she is a professor). So, this is not a big deal. She will miss four FOMC meetings: Sept, Oct, Dec and Jan 2026.The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is composed of seven Fed Governors, the President of the NY Fed, and four rotating Federal Reserve Bank district Presidents (there are 12 Fed Districts). The Fed Governers are appointed to 14-year terms (every 2 years a term expires). If a Fed Governor leaves early, the President can appoint someone to fill the unexpired term. This means each President appoints 2 governors and can also fill any unexpired terms. The other Fed Governor whose term is scheduled to expire while Trump is President is Jerome Powell in January 2028. If he decides to leave early (likely), Trump can appoint someone to fill the unexpired term - and then appoint someone for 14 years in January 2028. It is possible (but unlikely) that Powell will stay until 2028. Here are the other five Fed Governors:
Christopher J. Waller, appointed by Trump, term expires January 2030
Michael S. Barr, appointed by Biden, term expires January 2032
Michelle W. Bowman, appointed by Trump, term expires January 2034
Philip N. Jefferson, appointed by Biden, term expires January 2036
Lisa D. Cook, appointed by Biden, term expires January 2038
Federal Reserve Bank Presidents on the FOMC. Fed District Presidents serve five-year terms and are appointed by the Directors of each Federal Reserve Bank. The current terms all end in January 2026, but frequently Fed Presidents are reappointed. This year (2025) the five Fed Presidents on the FOMC are:
John C. Williams, New York, Vice Chair
Susan M. Collins, Boston
Austan D. Goolsbee, Chicago
Alberto G. Musalem, St. Louis
Jeffrey R. Schmid, Kansas City
Next year (2026), the Five Fed Presidents will be (it is likely most, if not all, will be reappointed in January):
John C. Williams, New York, Vice Chair
Beth M. Hammack, Cleveland
Neel Kashkari, Minneapolis
Lorie K. Logan, Dallas
Anna Paulson, Philadelphia
This is a qualified group. Even if Powell leaves, and four of the seven Fed Governors are Trump appointees, I think the majority of the FOMC will be very data dependent - and not swayed by politics. And it is a COMMITEE vote! There is the possibility we could see the first ever dissent by a Fed Chair.
Note: The Fed Chair must be one of the Fed Governors. Trump could appoint someone to fill the last six months of Dr. Kugler's unexpired term and then appoint someone else in January that he intends to name Fed Chair.
Trump takes Bessent off Fed short list, says four remain -- The short list for the next chair of the Federal Reserve is down to four names, and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is not one of them. The president said he would soon announce a replacement for departing Fed Gov. Adriana Kugler, adding that it's a "possibility" that his selection for that seat on the Federal Reserve Board will be tapped as the next Fed Chair.
Trump to nominate top White House economist to Fed board --- President Trump announced Thursday he would nominate Stephen Miran, chair of the White House Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), to serve as a “temporary” member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors. In a post on Truth Social, Trump said he would nominate Miran to a soon-to-be vacant spot on the Fed board while the president searches for a long-term replacement. “He has been with me from the beginning of my Second Term, and his expertise in the World of Economics is unparalleled — He will do an outstanding job. Congratulations Stephen!,” Trump wrote. Miran served as an economic adviser to former Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin during Trump’s first term. He was confirmed along party lines to lead the CEA for Trump’s second term, making him the top White House economist at a critical time for the president’s agenda. Miran received his Ph.D. in economics from Harvard University and wrote a paper in November focused on the relationships between tariffs and the value of the U.S. dollar that caught steam among Trump’s top advisers. Once confirmed by the GOP-controlled Senate, Miran would serve the remainder of a term occupied by Fed Gov. Adriana Kugler, who will depart the central bank Friday and return to academia. Kugler’s term was set to expire Jan. 31 of next year. Miran’s confirmation to the Fed board could affect the timing of Trump’s eventual replacement of Fed Chair Jerome Powell, whose term leading the central bank expires in May.
Fed's Cook warns against assuming AI will counter inflation -Federal Reserve Gov. Lisa Cook said artificial intelligence could be a transformative, general purpose technology, but that doesn't make a remedy for questionable policy choices.Federal Reserve Board member Lisa Cook said artificial intelligence will be transformative, but cautioned government officials not to assume that gain in AI technology will offset inflationary pressure elsewhere arising in the economy.
Recession Watch Metrics by Bill McBride - Early in February, I expressed my "increasing concern" about the negative economic impact of "executive / fiscal policy errors", however, I concluded that post by noting that I was not currently on recession watch. In early April, I went on recession watch, but I'm still not yet predicting a recession for several reasons: the U.S. economy is very resilient and was on solid footing at the beginning of the year, and perhaps the tariffs are not enough to topple the economy.In the short term, it is mostly trade policy that will negatively impact the economy. However, there other aspects of policy that bear watching - especially immigration.Here is some of the data I'm watching.
- Housing: Housing is the basis of one of my favorite models for business cycle forecasting.This graph shows the YoY change in New Home Sales from the Census Bureau. Currently new home sales (based on 3-month average of NSA data) are down 8% year-over-year. Usually when the YoY change in New Home Sales falls about 20%, a recession will follow. An exception for this data series was the mid '60s when the Vietnam buildup kept the economy out of recession. Another exception was in late 2021 - we saw a significant YoY decline in new home sales related to the pandemic and the surge in new home sales in the second half of 2020. The YoY change in new home sales in late 2022 and early 2023 suggested a possible recession. But as I noted earlier, I was able to look past the pandemic distortion and was able to predict a pickup in new home sales due to the low level of existing home inventory and because homebuilders could offer mortgage incentives that would somewhat offset the sharp increase in mortgage rates.There are no special circumstances now, and if this measure falls to off 20% a recession seems likely.
- Yield Curve: The yield curve is a commonly used leading indicator. I dismissed it when the yield curve inverted in 2019 and again in 2022. Both times dismissing the yield curve was correct (the recession in 2020 was obviously due to the pandemic, so we will never know if the yield curve failed to predict a recession in 2019).Here is a graph of 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Minus 2-Year Treasury Constant Maturity from FRED since 1976. The yield curve reverted to normal a year ago and is currently positive at 0.5. If this inverts, this might suggest a recession is coming. Click here for interactive graph at FRED.
- Heavy Truck (and Vehicle Sales): Another indicator I like to use is heavy truck sales. This graph shows heavy truck sales since 1967 using data from the BEA. The dashed line is the July 2025 seasonally adjusted annual sales rate (SAAR). Note: "Heavy trucks - trucks more than 14,000 pounds gross vehicle weight." Heavy truck sales were at 455 thousand SAAR in July, up from 443 thousand in June, and down 12.0% from 517 thousand SAAR in July 2024. Usually, heavy truck sales decline sharply prior to a recession and sales have been a little soft recently. This graph shows light vehicle sales since the BEA started keeping data in 1967. This is more of a concurrent indicator than heavy trucks. Light vehicle sales in July (16.41 million SAAR) were up 7.1% from the sales rate in June, and up 3.7% from July 2024
- Unemployment: Two other concurrent indicators are the unemployment rate (using the "Sahm Rule") and weekly unemployment claims.Here is a graph of the Sahm rule from FRED since 1959. The Sahm Rule was at 0.13 percentage points in July. If this increases to 0.5 it will suggest a possible recession. Note that this increased to 0.56 in August 2024, but Dr. Sahm (and I) argued this was not indicating a recession. And weekly unemployment claims always rise sharply at the beginning of a recession (other events - like hurricane Katrina - can cause a temporary spike in weekly claims).
As I noted earlier, I'm not sure how to estimate the economic damage caused by these tariffs and other policies. The economy is clearly slowing due to policy. There are also boycotts of U.S. goods and less international tourism based on both the tariffs and the inflammatory rhetoric of the current administration. None of these indicators are suggesting a recession. For now, I'll focus on the leading indicators (especially housing) and I'll update this post monthly while I'm on recession watch.
CBO projects ‘big, beautiful bill’ would add $5 trilllion to deficit if temporary tax cuts extended -- The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) informed Senate Budget Committee ranking member Jeff Merkley (D-Ore.) in a letter Monday that the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, President Trump’s signature domestic policy accomplishment, would add $5 trillion to the deficit over the next decade if its temporary tax relief provisions are extended for a full 10 years.The budget office projects that if temporary tax relief provisions, such as the tax exemption on tipped wages up to $25,000 and the $6,000 senior deduction, are made permanent, it would add another $789 billion to the debt over the next 10 years. That and $718 billion in debt-servicing costs bring the total price tag for Trump’s “big, beautiful bill” to nearly $5 trillion over a decade. The CBO estimates that as a result, the total amount of federal debt held by the public would increase by 11.5 percentage points by the end of 2034. “Each and every analysis from the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office continues to show the same result regardless of how you look at it: this bill explodes the debt by trillions of dollars to fund tax breaks for billionaires,” Merkley said in a statement. “It is the height of hypocrisy coming from the party that claims to be fiscally responsible,” he said. CBO produced its estimate in response to Merkley’s request asking for the budgetary impact of making permanent 10 provisions in Trump’s domestic policy law that are otherwise due to sunset in the next few years. The provisions include the senior deduction, the tax exemption for tipped income, the tax deduction on overtime income up to $12,500 for individuals and $25,000 for joint filers, and the tax deduction on auto loans for new cars made in the United States. The CBO noted to Merkley that the Joint Committee on Taxation has estimated that making those 10 provisions permanent would increase primary deficits over the 2025-2034 period by an additional $789 billion. “That change would increase the cumulative effect on the deficit to $5.0 trillion,” the CBO wrote to Merkley. “As a result, and net of any changes in borrowing for federal credit programs, CBO estimates that debt held by the public at the end of 2034 would increase by 11.5 percentage points relative to the agency’s January 2025 projection of GDP,” it estimated.
The Gaza Riviera–from vision to reality: Israel’s blueprint for ethnic cleansing and annexation -Last week, Israel’s parliament, the Knesset, held a conference The Gaza Riviera–from vision to reality. Fascist lawmakers presented plans to ethnically cleanse the Gaza Strip of Palestinians, annex it to Israel, and re-establish Jewish settlements there. This would include building two cities in Gaza, one in the north and south of the Strip, as well as a university campus, an industrial area, a commercial and tech park and a tourist district with beachfront hotels.Attending the conference were government ministers, Knesset members, heads of regional councils, security personnel, bereaved families, relatives of hostages, rabbis, researchers and activists. [The sign in the Knesset pictured in the X posting reads: “Meeting of the Lobby for the Renewal of Jewish Settlement in the Gaza Strip: Topic: “The Gaza Riviera – From Vision to Reality”] The name of the conference stemmed from President Donald Trump’s February 4 announcement at a White House press conference with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu that the US would take over Gaza and “own it”, forcing the 2.1 million Palestinians living there to leave, and turn it into the “Riviera of the Middle East.”Trump added, “If it’s necessary, we’ll do that, we’re going to take over that piece, we’re going to develop it, create thousands and thousands of jobs, and it’ll be something that the entire Middle East can be very proud of.” He had earlier called for the permanent resettlement of Gaza’s Palestinians in neighbouring countries.That such a conference could be held in Israel’s parliament, with barely a mention, let alone comment or condemnation, in the world’s media, indicates the degree to which ethnic cleansing and annexation after territorial conquest have become normalised, not just in Israel but in the centres of world imperialism. Under conditions where Washington is in the business of creating a “New Middle East”, it sets the tone for what future wars of conquest will mean.
Netanyahu Plans Full Israeli Occupation of the Gaza Strip - Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is set to order the full Israeli military occupation of the Gaza Strip, according to Israeli media reports on Monday, which means a significant escalation of the genocidal war is likely coming.According to Ynet, President Trump has given Netanyahu a “green light to launch a more aggressive military operation against Hamas in Gaza.”A source in Netanyahu’s office told The Jerusalem Post that Netanyahu had reached a decision on the full occupation and plans to order military operations in areas where Israel believes its captives are being held by Hamas. “The die is cast — we are going for a full occupation of the Gaza Strip,” an Israeli official told Ynet.The Israeli military has previously pushed back against plans for a full occupation, but Netanyahu’s message to IDF Chief of Staff Eyal Zamir is that if he doesn’t like it, he should quit. “There will be operations even in areas where hostages are being held. If the IDF chief of staff doesn’t agree, he should resign,” the Israeli official said.Netanyahu is set to convene his cabinet on Tuesday, where he will seek approval for the planned escalation. The Israeli military currently controls about 75% of Gaza, and under the new plan, it will work to capture the remaining territory to bring the entire Strip under Israeli control. Israeli reports from last week said that Netanyahu was planning to propose a plan to start annexing territory in Gaza.The Israeli media reports on Monday did not say what would become of the Palestinian civilians living in the areas currently not occupied by Israel. Israeli officials previously announced a plan to build a concentration camp in a tiny area of southern Gaza with the goal of forcing the entire civilian population into it.Netanyahu and his government have made clear that their ultimate goal is the removal of the Palestinian population of Gaza, which they now call the “Trump plan.” But so far, there’s been no indication that any regional countries are willing to take in a sizeable amount of Palestinians to facilitate the ethnic cleansing.
Israel's Escalation Plans Involve the Ethnic Cleansing of Gaza City and Gaza's Central Refugee Camps - The Israeli government’s plans to escalate military operations in Gaza involve the ethnic cleansing of the Palestinian civilian population of Gaza City and Gaza’s central refugee camps, according to Israeli media reports.Ynet reported that Israel plans to “push the civilian population out of the area and direct them to the south, in an effort to prompt them to leave” Gaza altogether. Israeli officials, including Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, have been speaking openly about the fact that their ultimate goal is the ethnic cleansing of the Gaza Strip, which they call “voluntary migration,” though it’s unclear where the Palestinian population would go.The new offensive is expected to take “months,” and the IDF is warning that it would lead to heavy Israeli casualties and that the remaining Israeli captives could be killed, but Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu appears determined to go through with the escalation. “The intention is to conquer Gaza,” an Israeli official told Ynet.The Times of Israel reported that Netanyahu is set to convene his security cabinet on Thursday at 6 pm Israel time and it is expected to approve the escalation plans despite IDF Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Eyal Zamir and other military officials warning against it. Family members of Israeli captives held in Gaza are also strongly opposed to the planned escalation.“The truth must be told: expanding the war endangers the lives of the hostages who are already in immediate mortal danger,” the Hostages and Missing Families Forum wrote on X on Wednesday. “The majority of the Israeli public supports the return of the hostages and a cessation of hostilities.”Since Israel is reliant on US military aid to sustain its genocidal war in Gaza, it requires US support to escalate, and President Trump has signaled he will go along with whatever Netanyahu decides. When asked on Tuesday about the plans for the full Israeli military occupation of the Strip, Trump said that it was “going to be pretty much up to Israel.”
Netanyahu Hosts 20 AIPAC-Sponsored House Republicans in Israel - Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on Wednesday that he hosted a delegation of House Republicans who were in Israel on a trip organized by the pro-Israel lobby group AIPAC, as members of Congress are flocking to the country amid their August recess.“Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, yesterday evening, met with an AIPAC-organized delegation of Republican members of the US Congress,” Netanyahu’s office said in a statement. “The Prime Minister briefed the members of Congress on the war in the Gaza Strip and commented on the issue of the humanitarian assistance and the mendacious campaign being waged by Hamas against the State of Israel.”AIPAC Tracker, a group that tracks donations to US lawmakers from pro-Israel lobby groups,identified 20 House GOP members from a picture posted online by Netanyahu’s office. US House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) is also in Israel this week and visited illegal Jewish settlements in the Israeli-occupied West Bank, including one where he dined with Netanyahu.According to Punchbowl News, about 20 House Democrats are also headed to Israel during the recess on an AIPAC-sponsored trip. The strong show of support for Israel from so many US lawmakers comes as Israel is regularly massacring over 100 Palestinians a day in Gaza, including many desperate people seeking aid, and Palestinians are starving to death in Gaza every day due to the US-backed Israeli blockade.The 20 House GOP members identified in the photo with Netanyahu include House Majority Whip Tom Emmer (MN), Harriet Hageman (WY), Michael Baumgartner (WA), Julie Fedorchak (ND), Jeff Hurd (CO), Craig Goldman (R-TX), Josh Brecheen (OK), Randy Fine (FL), Marlin Stutzman (IN), Brandon Gill (TX), Abe Hamadeh (AZ), Derek Schmidt (KS), John McGuire (VA), Mark Harris (NC), Brian Jack (GA), Guy Reschenthaler (PA), Troy Downing (MT), Tony Wied (WI), Bob Onder (MO), and Jefferson Shreve (IN).
AIPAC Attacks Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene for Calling Israel's Actions in Gaza Genocide - The pro-Israel lobby group AIPAC is attacking Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA) after she became the first Republican member of Congress to label Israel’s actions against the Palestinians in Gaza a genocide.According to Al Jazeera, in a fundraising email to supporters on Thursday, AIPAC called Greene’s remarks “disgusting” and accused her of betraying “American values” for calling Israel’s brutal campaign in Gaza a genocide, which aligns Greene with many human rights organizations and genocide scholars, including Israeli ones.“You expect anti-Israel smears from Rashida Tlaib and Ilhan Omar,” AIPAC said in the email, referring to two House Democrats known for their critical view of Israel. “But now, Marjorie Taylor Greene has joined their ranks – spouting the same vile rhetoric and voting against the US-Israel alliance.”AIPAC said Greene was now the “newest member of the anti-Israel Squad” and claimed her view was a “betrayal of American values and a dangerous distortion of the truth.”Greene has referred to Israel’s actions as genocide at least twice in posts on X. In her first post,Greene said that it’s “the most truthful and easiest thing to say that Oct 7th in Israel was horrific and all hostages must be returned, but so is the genocide, humanitarian crisis, and starvation happening in Gaza.”In another post, the Georgia congresswoman said many Americans are “against radical Islamic terrorism, but we are also against genocide.” She has also repeatedly referred to Israel as “nuclear-armed Israel,” making her one of the first members of Congress to directly acknowledge Israel’s secret nuclear arsenal.
Marjorie Taylor Greene says she’s not sure if GOP is ‘leaving me’ - Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) is questioning her place in the Republican Party after finding herself at odds with others in the GOP — including President Trump — over several issues. The remarks — made during an interview with the Daily Mail — comes after Greene said Israel is conducting a “genocide” in Gaza; vocally pushed for the release of the documents related to Jeffrey Epstein, despite Trump pressing to move on from the story; and criticized the U.S. strike on nuclear facilities in Iran, among other positions.Her contrast with many in the GOP is prompting her to question her perch in the party.“I don’t know if the Republican Party is leaving me, or if I’m kind of not relating to Republican Party as much anymore,” Greene said. “I don’t know which one it is.” “I think the Republican Party has turned its back on America First and the workers and just regular Americans,” she added.The comments from Greene are the latest flash point in her timeline in Washington, which has seen her go from a pariah in the GOP to a close ally of the president, while at times being a thorn in the side of House GOP leadership.Greene said she believes the Republican Party is drifting back to its “neocon” ways, with the people at the top of the group, the “good ole boys,” pushing against the MAGA agenda.
Trump gives Israel tacit green light on Gaza takeover -President Trump is giving a tacit green light for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to take over the Gaza Strip, framing the move as an Israeli-owned decision amid a global outcry and growing calls in the U.S. to rein in Netanyahu. Trump has committed to taking the lead on humanitarian aid distribution in the strip amid famine-like conditions for a population enduring a catastrophic humanitarian crisis. But he’s refrained from criticizing Israel’s plans to escalate the war by expanding its military control of the Gaza Strip, even as international allies speak out against the operation. “I know that we are there now trying to get people fed. … As far as the rest of it, I really can’t say. That’s going to be pretty much up to Israel,” Trump said earlier this week when asked about Netanyahu’s plan. Netanyahu’s decision, approved in a securityCabinet vote overnight between Thursday and Friday, is worsening deep divisions in Israeli society, pitting the military against the government, and isolating Israel from European and Arab and Gulf partners. Germany on Friday announced it would halt military exports to Israel that can be used in the Gaza Strip. This follows France, Canada and the United Kingdom expressing their intent to recognize an independent Palestinian state, a move vehemently opposed by Israel, which argues it rewards Hamas for launching its attack on Oct. 7, 2023. Underscoring British concern, the U.K. initiated an emergency United Nations Security Council meeting for Saturday to discuss Israel’s plan to take over Gaza. “There’s a lot of common objectives here. There is some, I think, disagreement about how exactly to accomplish those common objectives,” Vice President Vance said Friday, while meeting with British Foreign Minister David Lammy, when asked about whether the U.S. was given a heads-up on Netanyahu’s plan. Netanyahu is pushing back against international criticism. On Friday, the Israeli leader struck back at Germany as “rewarding Hamas terrorism by embargoing arms to Israel.” “We are not going to occupy Gaza – we are going to free Gaza from Hamas,” Netanyahu said in a statement Friday on the social platform X.
Trump Administration Won't Provide Disaster Relief to States and Cities That Boycott Israeli Companies - The Trump administration has said that states and cities will not receive funding to prepare for natural disasters if they choose to boycott Israeli companies, Reuters reported on Monday, citing aterms document from the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) published in April.The document says that in order to receive funding from the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), which falls under the DHS, states must certify that they will not engage in a “discriminatory prohibited boycott.”A discriminatory prohibited boycott is defined in the document as “refusing to deal, cutting commercial relations, or otherwise limiting commercial relations specifically with Israeli companies or with companies doing business in or with Israel or authorized by, licensed by, or organized under the laws of Israel to do business.”The condition on FEMA funding takes aim at the Boycott Divestment and Sanctions (BDS) movement, which calls for a global boycott to pressure Israel over its occupation of Palestinian territory and now its ongoing genocide in the Gaza Strip. After the news about the Israeli boycott condition for FEMA aid broke, it sparked a backlash online, including from many Trump supporters. In response, the DHS removed the language about Israel from its terms for the funding, but its statement made clear it could still enforce the condition on boycotts of Israel if it chooses to.
US Launches Airstrikes Against al-Shabaab During Major Battle in Somalia - US Africa Command has announced that its forces launched airstrikes against al-Shabaab during fighting in southern Somalia on Friday, the same day the African Union’s (AU) mission in the country, AUSSOM, reported a major battle.AFRICOM offered no details about the strikes other than saying they were launched in support of the US-backed government in the vicinity of Bariire, a town about 30 miles west of Mogadishu. Al-Shabaab claimed that it killed 20 Ugandan members of the AU force and that it destroyed several armored vehicles.AUSSOM issued a statement on the battle denying that it took heavy casualties and lost armored vehicles. The AU mission said that it “strongly refutes media reports alleging heavy casualties among its soldiers in Bariire town.”“AUSSOM wishes to clarify that its forces, in coordination with the Somali National Armed Forces (SNAF), initiated a major offensive to recapture Bariire town on 1st August,” AUSSOM said. The mission also claimed that 50 al-Shabaab fighters were killed in the battle.The Uganda People’s Defense Forces (UPDF) issued a statement on the battle, which also claimed 50 al-Shabaab fighters were killed. “The offensive remains active, with UPDF and SNAF troops continuing operations to dislodge remaining fighters and secure full control of the area,” the UPDF said on Saturday.The US-backed Somali government has launched a new offensive against al-Shabaab, but has stillcontinued to lose territory to the group. AFP reported last month that government forces “melted”in the face of al-Shabaab’s offensives and the government of President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud has become increasingly unpopular and controls little territory inside the internationally recognized borders of Somalia.Despite the failures, the US has doubled down on propping up the Mogadishu-based government and continues to support it with airstrikes. The US has also been bombing the small ISIS affiliate in Somalia’s northeastern Puntland region, where the US is backing local forces.
Trump escalates nuclear tensions as Russia deadline nears President Trump is rattling the U.S.’s formidable nuclear saber amid his growing frustration with Russian President Vladimir Putin’s refusal to halt the war in Ukraine, just days ahead of Trump’s deadline for a ceasefire. Trump last week said he was moving two “nuclear” submarines closer to Russia in response to threatening rhetoric from a top Kremlin official. On Sunday, he confirmed the vessels were now “in the region.” It’s not clear if Trump is referring to nuclear-armed submarines or nuclear-powered attack submarines, but the confusion adds to the threat, which coincides with the president’s Friday deadline for Russia to end the war or face further economic isolation. Experts say it’s a risky tactic unlikely to sway Putin, who has stood in the way of the president’s campaign promise to end the war in Ukraine within 24 hours of returning to the White House. “I don’t see a lot of the benefits or the advantages, given that the Russians know very well that we have, for decades, had nuclear-armed submarines that could target what matters to them,” said Erin Dumbacher, the Stanton Nuclear Security Senior Fellow with the Council on Foreign Relations. “I see more risk than reward to using statements like this.” While experts don’t see an imminent threat, they warn against careless and bombastic statements that could lead to risky miscalculation and confrontation.
Russia Downplays Trump's Comments on Nuclear Submarines, Cautions Against 'Nuclear Rhetoric' - The Kremlin on Monday downplayed President Trump’s recent announcement that two US nuclear submarines were being deployed to “appropriate regions” in response to comments from former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev.According to Russia’s TASS news agency, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov noted that US nuclear-armed submarines are always at sea and on patrol, regardless of Trump’s comments. “In this case, it is obvious that US submarines are already on combat duty. This is an ongoing process,” he said.Peskov also cautioned against rhetoric related to nuclear weapons. “Russia takes the issue of nuclear non-proliferation very seriously. And, of course, we believe that everyone should be extremely careful when it comes to nuclear rhetoric,” he said.Trump announced the submarine deployment after Medvedev said that the US president’s ultimatums on the Ukraine war are “a threat and a step towards war. Not between Russia and Ukraine, but with (Trump’s) own country.”
Witkoff set to visit Russia for ‘last chance’ talks on Ukraine war - President Trump’s special envoy Steve Witkoff is expected to visit Russia this week for what Ukraine is calling Moscow’s “last chance” to reach a peace deal before U.S. sanctions are imposed on countries that import oil from Russia.Trump on Sunday said Witkoff “may be going to Russia” on Wednesday or Thursday in a push to secure a ceasefire.The president has grown increasingly frustrated with Russian President Vladimir Putin, who has ignored his pleas for a peace deal, and he moved up a deadline last week for the Kremlin to reach a peace deal or face increased economic isolation.Trump’s latest deadline for Moscow would technically expire Friday, though he has proven flexible when it comes to imposing threatened tariffs on foreign countries. A Kremlin spokesperson speaking to reporters Monday did not confirm or rule out a meeting between Putin and Witkoff this week.
NATO Countries To Provide Ukraine With Over $1 Billion in US Military Equipment Under New Scheme - - The Netherlands announced on Monday that it would be providing Ukraine with 500 million euros ($578 million) worth of US military equipment, making it the first country to participate in a new NATO scheme to continue fueling the proxy war.“Ukraine needs more air defence and ammunition now,” Dutch Defense Minister Ruben Brekelmanswrote on X on Monday. “As the first NATO Ally, the Netherlands will deliver a €500 million package of US weapon systems (incl. Patriot parts and missiles).”The following day, NATO said in a statement that Sweden, Norway, and Denmark have agreed to finance a $500 million weapons package sourced from the US for Ukraine under the new scheme, which NATO is calling the NATO Prioritised Ukraine Requirements List (PURL) initiative.“The announcement swiftly followed the unveiling of the first package of artillery and ammunition worth more than $500m on Monday (4 August 2025) funded by the Netherlands,” NATO said. “Together, the contributions are valued at over $1bn and represent the first two tranches of regular deliveries to Ukraine under the Alliance’s newly-launched PURL initiative.”President Trump and NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte announced last month a plan to flood “billions of dollars” worth of US weapons into Ukraine that involves NATO countries purchasing the US equipment. The scheme will be another boon for US weapons makers, who have seen huge profits from the war in Ukraine.
Russia Says It's No Longer Bound by Moratorium on Deployment of INF Missiles -The Russian Foreign Ministry said on Monday that Moscow was no longer bound by a self-imposed moratorium on the deployment of missiles that were previously banned by the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty, which the US withdrew from in 2019.The INF prohibited land-based missile systems with a range between 310 and 3,400 miles. Since pulling out of the treaty, the US has developed a missile launcher, known as a Typhon, that can fire nuclear-capable Tomahawk missiles, which have a range of over 1,000 miles. The US has deployed the Typhon, also known as the Mid-Range Capability System, to the Philippines and briefly to Denmark for drills.The US has also announced plans to deploy missile systems previously banned by the INF to Germany by 2026, and Berlin recently requested to procure its own Typhon system from the US.The Russian Foreign Ministry said in its statement: “With our repeated warnings on that matter having gone ignored and the situation developing towards the de facto deployment of US-made intermediate-and shorter-range ground-based missiles in Europe and the Asia-Pacific region, the Russian Foreign Ministry has to declare that any conditions for the preservation of a unilateral moratorium on the deployment of similar arms no longer exist, and it is further authorized to state that the Russian Federation does not consider itself bound by relevant self-restrictions approved earlier.”The ministry added that the US deployment of INF missiles has led to the “formation and buildup of destabilizing missile potentials in regions adjacent to Russia, creating a direct, strategic threat to the security of our country.” It said that decisions on Moscow’s response would be made by “Russia’s leadership based on an interdepartmental analysis of the scale of deployment of US and other Western ground-based INF missiles.”
U.S. Gains Rights to South Caucasus Corridor in Armenia-Azerbaijan Peace Deal (Reuters) — When U.S. President Donald Trump welcomes the leaders of Armenia and Azerbaijan to the White House on Aug. 8, the meeting will culminate in the signing of a peace framework that includes exclusive U.S. development rights to a strategic transit corridor through the South Caucasus, officials told Reuters. Armenia and Azerbaijan have been at odds since the late 1980s when Nagorno-Karabakh - an Azerbaijani region that had a mostly ethnic-Armenian population - broke away from Azerbaijan with support from Armenia. Both Armenia and Azerbaijan won independence from the Soviet Union in 1991. A peace deal could transform the South Caucasus, an energy-producing region neighboring Russia, Europe, Turkey and Iran that is crisscrossed by oil and gas pipelines but riven by closed borders and longstanding ethnic conflicts. Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev and Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan are to join Trump at the White House for talks and the signing ceremony, the U.S. officials said, speaking on condition of anonymity. They are to sign a framework aimed at reaching a "concrete pathway to peace" and addressing a long-simmering transit issue, the officials said. Azerbaijan has asked for a transport corridor through Armenia, linking the bulk of its territory to Nakhchivan, an Azerbaijani enclave that borders Baku's ally Turkey. Under a carefully negotiated section of the documents the leaders will sign on Friday, Armenia plans to award the United States exclusive special development rights for an extended period on a transit corridor that will be named the Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity, and known by the acronym TRIPP, the officials said. The route will be operated according to Armenian law and the United States will sublease the land to a consortium for infrastructure and management, the officials said. "Through commercial means, this step will unlock the region and avert further hostilities," one of the officials said. The Armenian and Azerbaijani leaders will also sign documents requesting the dissolution of the Minsk Group, which has been co-chaired by France, Russia and the United States since its establishment in 1992 to mediate the conflict, the officials said. Progress on the Armenian-Azerbaijan issue began in March when U.S. special envoy Steve Witkoff visited the region. Members of his team made several subsequent trips there to help broker the agreement. U.S. officials believe a peace deal between Armenia and Azerbaijan could prompt negotiations on the entry of Azerbaijan into the Abraham Accords, the series of normalization agreements that Trump brokered between Israel and four Muslim-majority countries in his first term. The White House summit comes as Trump has tried to present himself as a global peacemaker in the first months of his second term. The White House has credited him with brokering a ceasefire between Cambodia and Thailand and sealing peace deals between Rwanda and the Democratic Republic of Congo, and Pakistan and India. Trump has been less successful in ending Russia's war in Ukraine and the conflict between Israel and Hamas in Gaza.
Trump to raise tariffs further on India over Russia oil purchases -President Trump said on Monday he will raise tariffs on India for buying and selling oil from Moscow, arguing that the country doesn’t care about the Ukrainian casualties from the war with Russia.The president didn’t say how much the tariff will increase on India, after he said he would impose a 25 percent tariff on the trading partner last month.“India is not only buying massive amounts of Russian Oil, they are then, for much of the Oil purchased, selling it on the Open Market for big profits,” he said on Truth Social. “They don’t care how many people in Ukraine are being killed by the Russian War Machine. Because of this, I will be substantially raising the Tariff paid by India to the USA.”The president previously had vowed to hit India with a penalty for buying military equipment and energy from Russia amid the war in Ukraine.India said it would continue buying oil from Moscow on Saturday. The Indian foreign ministry called the relationship with Russia “steady and time-tested” and that it’s stance on security energy is guided by the availability of oil in the markets. Top administration officials, including Trump, had insisted for months that a deal with India was pending but never announced one. The lack of a deal then led the president to slap the 25 percent tariff and additional import tax on India.Trump in recent weeks has also grown increasingly frustrated with Russian President Vladimir Putin and shortened the timeline for him to agree to a ceasefire in Ukraine to within the next two weeks.Without a ceasefire, he has warned that Russia would face additional sanctions and tariffs, indicating he would impose a 100 percent “secondary” tariff, which would target other nations that do business with Russia.
Trump Slaps India With Additional 25% In Tariffs Over Russian Energy Trade --Just as he warned yesterday, President Trump signed an executive order imposing an additional 25% tariff on India over its purchase of Russian energy, the White House said Wednesday hours after talks between the US and Russia over the war in Ukraine failed to yield a breakthrough.The accelerated tariffs - which will stack on top of 25% country-specific tariffs set to be implemented overnight - will go into effect within 21 days, according to the executive order signed by Trump. “They’re fueling the war machine. And if they’re going to do that, then I’m not going to be happy,” Trump said Tuesday in an interview with CNBC.This rhetoric was escalated in the initial paragraphs of the Executive Order: Executive Order 14066 of March 8, 2022 (Prohibiting Certain Imports and New Investments With Respect to Continued Russian Federation Efforts To Undermine the Sovereignty and Territorial Integrity of Ukraine), expanded the scope of the national emergency declared in Executive Order 14024 of April 15, 2021 (Blocking Property With Respect To Specified Harmful Foreign Activities of the Government of the Russian Federation), to include the actions taken against Ukraine by the Government of the Russian Federation. To address that unusual and extraordinary threat to the national security and foreign policy of the United States, Executive Order 14066 prohibited, among other things, the importation into the United States of certain products of Russian Federation origin, including crude oil; petroleum; and petroleum fuels, oils, and products of their distillation...To deal with the national emergency described in Executive Order 14066, I determine that it is necessary and appropriate to impose an additional ad valorem duty on imports of articles of India, which is directly or indirectly importing Russian Federation oil. In my judgment, imposing tariffs, as described below, in addition to maintaining the other measures taken to address the national emergency described in Executive Order 14066, will more effectively deal with the national emergency described in Executive Order 14066. ...Accordingly, and as consistent with applicable law, articles of India imported into the customs territory of the United States shall be subject to an additional ad valorem rate of duty of 25 percent. The reaction was immediate extended selling pressure in India ETF...
Trump doubles tariff on India to 50%, sparking outrage in Delhi --President Donald Trump escalated tensions with India by imposing a 50% tariff on its goods, doubling the previous 25% levy, as a penalty for India’s continued purchase of Russian oil, effective within 21 days. This move, aimed at pressuring India in stalled trade talks and leveraging a ceasefire in Ukraine, has provoked strong backlash from New Delhi, with Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government and opposition leader Rahul Gandhi condemning it as unfair and bullying. India defends its oil purchases as essential for energy security and accuses Trump of singling it out while sparing other nations like China. The tariffs threaten India’s economy, potentially cutting US-bound exports by 60% and risking 0.9% of GDP, particularly impacting labor-intensive sectors like pharmaceuticals and textiles. While talks continue, the move risks pushing India closer to Russia and China, with Modi planning a visit to Beijing, further straining US-India ties.
India's Reliance Warns Tariffs Threaten Oil Market Stability --Reliance Industries, the top private refiner in India, has warned in its annual report that tariff uncertainties and geopolitical events could affect global crude oil flows and oil market balances. “Continuing geopolitical and tariff-related uncertainties may affect trade flows and demand-supply balance,” the conglomerate Reliance Industries, owned and chaired by Indian billionaire Mukesh Ambani, said in its annual 2024-2025 report.“Global crude oil prices continue to remain volatile on the back of dynamic interplay of various factors such as geopolitical volatility in the Middle East, redirection of shipping routes, OPEC+ and non-OPEC production decisions, regional capacity additions and downstream supply-demand realignments, evolving sanctions and trade tariff regimes and rate of recovery of Chinese economy,” Reliance added. The refiner also noted that tariffs and sanctions key are among the factors to watch this year, alongside stagnating demand in China due to EV penetration, aviation growth in Asia, and geopolitical uncertainties. Earlier this week, U.S. President Donald Trump signed an executive order enacting an additional 25% tariff on Indian goods, explicitly targeting India’s ongoing imports of Russian crude oil. This order increases the total tariff rate on Indian exports to the United States to 50%, the highest level for any country under current U.S. policy. The 50% tariff will take effect 21 days after August 6. The executive order also establishes a process for the potential imposition of similar tariffs on other countries that directly or indirectly import oil from the Russian Federation, the White House said. India has said that the U.S. tariff of 50% due to Indian imports of Russian oil is “unfair, unjustified and unreasonable.” “We have already made clear our position on these issues, including the fact that our imports are based on market factors and done with the overall objective of ensuring the energy security of 1.4 billion people of India,” the Indian government said on Wednesday.
Trump Raises India Tariffs to 50% Over Its Import of Russian Oil After Witkoff Meets Putin - President Trump on Wednesday signed an executive order raising tariffs on India to 50% over New Delhi’s import of Russian oil, a step he took right after his envoy, Steve Witkoff, held a meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin.The president said that the tariffs on India would go into effect on August 27 and that other countries could face similar measures if they continue purchasing Russian oil. The move comes ahead of the August 8 deadline Trump set for Russia to end the war in Ukraine or face sanctions and “secondary tariffs” on its trading partners.After imposing the tariffs, Trump also said “great progress” was made in the Witkoff-Putin meeting. “My Special Envoy, Steve Witkoff, just had a highly productive meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin. Great progress was made!” the president wrote on Truth Social. “Afterwards, I updated some of our European Allies. Everyone agrees this War must come to a close, and we will work towards that in the days and weeks to come. Thank you for your attention to this matter!” the president added.The Russian side also said that the Trump-Witkoff meeting, which lasted three hours, went well, though there’s no sign any real progress was made toward a ceasefire in Ukraine, and US officials say more “secondary sanctions” will be imposed on Friday. Moscow has also made clear that the threat of the US imposing tariffs on its trading partners would not impact its military operations in Ukraine. In response to the tariffs, which came after Trump first announced a 25% tariff, the Indian Foreign Ministry said that it was “extremely unfortunate that the US should choose to impose additional tariffs on India for actions that several other countries are also taking in their own national interest.” Indian officials have previously said New Delhi would continue buying Russian oil despite the pressure from the US. The Foreign Ministry said that the US actions were “unfair, unjustified, and unreasonable” and that New Delhi would “take all actions necessary to protect its national interests.”
Modi reaffirms India-Russia partnership amid U.S. tariff fight -- Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Friday shared that he held a “very good and detailed conversation with my friend President Putin,” as President Trump has ramped up tariff threats this week against New Delhi for Russian oil purchases. Modi, in a post on the social platform X, also said he thanked the Russian president for the latest updates on the Ukraine war. “We also reviewed the progress in our bilateral agenda, and reaffirmed our commitment to further deepen the India-Russia Special and Privileged Strategic Partnership. I look forward to hosting President Putin in India later this year,” the Indian leader said. Trump on Wednesday announced he would increase tariffs on India by 25 percent over its purchases of Russian oil, bringing the total tariffs he has imposed on New Delhi to 50 percent. The 25 percent increase is on top of a 25 percent “reciprocal” tariff Trump announced on India last week, which was set to take effect Thursday. India has remained defiant, souring U.S. relations with a key bulwark against China, as well as close personal relations between Trump and Modi. “They’re buying Russian oil, they’re fueling the war machine. And if they’re going to do that, then I’m not going to be happy,” Trump said of India during a Tuesday interview with CNBC. India has volleyed back with claims of American hypocrisy; past U.S. administrations encouraged the India-Russia energy trade to help stabilize global markets, and both the U.S. and Europe continue to spend billions on Russian energy and commodities.
Trump to meet Putin in Alaska, discuss ‘swapping of territories’ between Russia, Ukraine -President Trump on Friday said he will meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin in a week in Alaska and that swapping territories will be discussed in potential peace talks between the Kremlin and Ukraine. “I think we’re getting very close, and we’re going to be announcing later on — we’re going to have a meeting with Russia, start off with Russia,” Trump said at the White House on Friday. “And we’ll announce the location; I think the location will be a very popular one for a lot of reasons. But we’ll be announcing that a little bit later; I just don’t want to do it now because of the importance of what we just did.” Hours later, Trump on Truth Social posted that the meeting would be Aug. 15 in Alaska. “The highly anticipated meeting between myself, as President of the United States of America, and President Vladimir Putin, of Russia, will take place next Friday, August 15, 2025, in the Great State of Alaska. Further details to follow. Thank you for your attention to this matter!” Trump said on Truth Social. Trump at the White House was asked about the potential for peace talks he was hosting the leaders of Armenia and Azerbaijan, who were signing a peace accord after years of conflict. Trump elaborated on what a peace deal with Russia and Ukraine could look like after Putin reportedly presented the administration with a ceasefire proposal that involved Ukraine making territorial concessions. “You’re looking at territory that’s been fought over for three and a half years. A lot of Russians have died, a lot of Ukrainians. So we’re looking at that, but we’re actually to get some back and some swapping. It’s complicated. It’s actually — nothing easy. It’s very complicated. But we’re going to get some back. And we’re going to get some switched,” Trump said. “They’ll be some swapping of territories to the betterment of both, but we’ll be talking about that either later or tomorrow or whatever.”
Trump says he will meet Putin in Alaska on Friday - President Trump on Friday said he will meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Alaska next Friday, hosting the Russian leader in the U.S. for talks about ending the war with Ukraine. “The highly anticipated meeting between myself, as President of the United States of America, and President Vladimir Putin, of Russia, will take place next Friday, August 15, 2025, in the Great State of Alaska. Further details to follow. Thank you for your attention to this matter!” Trump said on Truth Social. Earlier on Friday, the president confirmed he would meet with the Russian leader and said that swapping territories will be discussed as part of the potential peace talks. Putin reportedly presented the administration with a ceasefire proposal that involved Ukraine making territorial concessions. “You’re looking at territory that’s been fought over for three and a half years. A lot of Russians have died, a lot of Ukrainians. So we’re looking at that, but we’re actually to get some back and some swapping. It’s complicated. It’s actually — nothing easy. It’s very complicated. But we’re going to get some back. And we’re going to get some switched,” Trump said. “They’ll be some swapping of territories to the betterment of both, but we’ll be talking about that either later or tomorrow or whatever,” he added.
Chinese nationals arrested for allegedly shipping AI chips to China Two Chinese nationals were charged with illegally shipping to China tens of millions of dollars’ worth of sensitive microchips used in artificial intelligence (AI) applications, the Department of Justice (DOJ) announced Tuesday. Chuan Geng and Shiwei Yang are accused of “knowingly and willfully” exporting chips, including Nvidia H100s, to China without obtaining the required licensing from the Department of Commerce, from October 2022 to July 2025. The defendants’ company, ALX Solutions Inc., was founded in 2022, shortly after the U.S. imposed sweeping export restrictions on the advanced computer chips to China, according to the DOJ, which cited an affidavit filed with the criminal complaint. On more than 20 occasions, according to the DOJ, the company sent restricted technology to freight-forwarding companies in Malaysia and Singapore, which then purportedly sent the shipments to China. The California-based company received payments from companies based in China and Hong Kong, according to the DOJ, but never from the Malaysian and Singaporean companies. Redistricting Battle Heads To ... Indiana? The defendants are also accused of mislabeling a shipment as “subject to federal laws and regulations” in the hopes of avoiding inspection, but the chip actually required a license, according to the DOJ press release. That chip, the complainant says, is the “most powerful GPU chip on the market” and is “designed specifically for AI applications,” such as those used “to develop self-driving cars, medical diagnosis systems, and other AI-powered applications,” the DOJ release said.
Donald Trump orders Pentagon to target drug cartels: Reports -President Trump has reportedly signed a directive for the Pentagon to start using military force against certain drug cartels that have been designated foreign terrorist organizations. The New York Times reported Trump signed the directive in secret, providing a justification for potential military operations against the criminal organizations.The Times reported that U.S. military officials have started drawing up plans for how the military could target cartels. But any unilateral strikes against the groups could also raise legal issues if individuals are killed who do not pose an imminent threat or who are not part of a conflict where Congress has authorized military action.“President Trump’s top priority is protecting the homeland, which is why he took the bold step to designate several cartels and gangs as foreign terrorist organizations,” White House spokesperson Anna Kelly said in a statement to The Hill. Trump upon taking office took executive action to designate several drug cartels as foreign terrorist organizations, which provided additional law enforcement tools to crack down on their activity.
Trump Authorized Military Operations on Foreign Soil to Target Latin American Cartels -- President Donald Trump has ordered the US military to take direct actions against Latin American cartels, including conducting operations on foreign soil. Secretary of State Marco Rubio has labeled Venezuelan President Maduro the leader of a cartel and is offering a $50 million reward for his capture. The New York Times reports, “President Trump has secretly signed a directive to the Pentagon to begin using military force against certain Latin American drug cartels that his administration has deemed terrorist organizations.”The Times adds, “The order provides an official basis for the possibility of direct military operations at sea and on foreign soil against cartels.”Since President Donald Trump returned to the White House, the State and Treasury Departments have listed several Latin American cartels as Specially Designated Global Terrorists. The targeted gangs include Tren de Aragua (TdA), Mara Salvatrucha (MS-13), and Cártel de Sinaloa. In July, Cartel de los Soles (Cartel of the Suns) was added to the list.On Thursday, Rubio explained that placing cartels on the SDGT list allows for the use of “other elements of American power, intelligence agencies, the Department of Defense, whatever, to target these groups if we have an opportunity to do it.” He added, “We have to start treating them as armed terrorist organizations, not simply drug-dealing organizations.”
Mexico rejects US forces in country - Mexico’s president said Friday that U.S. forces would not be allowed to enter her country, responding to reports that President Trump had directed the military to cross the border to fight drug cartels that have been labeled foreign terrorist groups. “The United States is not going to come to Mexico with the military. We cooperate, we collaborate, but there is not going to be an invasion. That is ruled out, absolutely ruled out,” Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum said to The New York Times. “It is not part of any agreement, far from it. When it has been brought up, we have always said no.”The New York Times reported Trump signed the directive in secret, providing a justification for potential military operations against the criminal organizations. It also reported U.S. military officials have started drawing up plans for how the military could target cartels.Any unilateral strikes against cartels identified as terrorist groups could also raise legal issues if individuals are killed who do not pose an imminent threat or who are not part of a conflict where Congress has authorized military action.
Cotton presses Hegseth to block noncitizens from Pentagon systems -- Senate Intelligence Committee Chair Tom Cotton (R-Ark.) is pressing Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth to immediately ban non-U.S. citizens from accessing U.S. military computer systems. In a letter sent to Hegseth on Wednesday, Cotton praises the Pentagon chief’s “ongoing actions” to eliminate Chinese engineers’ access to Department of Defense (DOD) systems, while pushing him to immediately change current Pentagon policy that allows some non-U.S. citizens to access the military’s systems. “Foreign persons should never be allowed to access DoD systems, regardless of whether a U.S. citizen is supervising,” Cotton writes. “The Department, particularly the Under Secretary of Defense for Intelligence and Security, has the authority to immediately make these policy changes. I urge you to do so now.” Hegseth last month signaled he agreed with Cotton’s thinking after the senator in a separate letter pointed to a ProPublica investigation that revealed Microsoft, which has a contract with the Pentagon to maintain its computer systems, was using engineers in China for such work with minimal supervision by U.S. personnel. “Spot on Senator. Agree fully. Our team is already looking into this ASAP,” Hegseth wrote in a July 18 post to the social platform X that included the image of Cotton’s letter. “Foreign engineers — from any country, including of course China — should NEVER be allowed to maintain or access DoD systems.” In addition to urging an immediate policy change, Cotton also plans to offer language to the annual defense authorization bill that would codify Hegseth’s potential actions into law. “Congress must prohibit non-U.S. citizens from accessing DoD systems under any circumstances and mandate DoD to revise its policies to comply with this prohibition,” the letter says.
Air Force denies early retirement benefits to transgender troops - The Air Force will deny early retirement benefits to transgender service members with 15 to 18 years of military service, even in cases where an early retirement was already approved, according to a new memo.Transgender service members, who were made to either voluntarily separate or be forced out of the military under a policy instituted by the Trump administration, will instead be offered enhanced voluntary separation pay, which falls short of the early retirement benefit and is typically given to service members who choose to leave active duty before they are eligible for retirement, according to an Aug. 4 memo obtained by The Hill and first reported by Reuters.. An earlier memo, sent in May by Gwendolyn R. Defilippi, acting assistant secretary of the Air Force for manpower and reserve affairs, said transgender service members with 15 to 18 years of service could request Temporary Early Retirement Authority (TERA). In most military branches, including the Air Force, service members are eligible for retirement after 20 years.An Air Force spokesperson did not immediately return The Hill’s request for comment on the new policy but told Reuters on Thursday that roughly a dozen transgender troops with between 15 and 18 years of military service were “prematurely notified” that their TERA applications were approved, and a “higher level review” was required.In the Aug. 4 memo, Brian Scarlett, performing the duties of the assistant secretary of the Air Force for manpower and reserve affairs, wrote that, “after careful consideration of the individual applications,” he was “disapproving” TERA requests from trans service members with 15 to 18 years of service. The memo does not explain the decision.
Tariff Cash Is Rolling In, Hits $28 Billion in July --By Wolf Richter - The amount in tariffs collected by the government in July rose to $28 billion, from $26.6 billion in June, $22.2 billion in May, $15.6 billion in April, and $8.2 billion in March, when collections from the new tariffs began. In the three months from May through July, $77 billion in tariffs were collected. If collections continue at this pace, $308 billion in tariffs will be collected in the 12-month period. In the fiscal year ended September 2024, the government collected $77 billion in tariffs. So the new tariffs would bring in an additional $230 billion in revenues. That $230 billion in additional tax receipts may not sound like a lot within the fiscal fiasco that the US government has constructed. But corporate income taxes collected in the last fiscal year fell to $366 billion (from $393 billion in the prior fiscal year). And this additional $230 billion from tariffs would raise the amount in taxes that companies pay by around 60%! The tariff data is from the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS), except for July, which is from the Daily Treasury Statement (DTS) for July 31, released on Friday. The DTS lists “customs duties” and “certain excise taxes” combined as one line item. The MTS – the July edition will be released on August 12 – separates “customs duties” from “excise taxes.” The difference between the DTS figure and the MTS figure reflects the excise taxes and has averaged $1.6 billion a month for the past 12 months. So the July figure here is the DTS amount of $29.6 billion minus $1.6 billion in estimated excise taxes. Tariffs are taxes paid by businesses on goods that are imported, on their cost of the imported good. Whether or not businesses can pass them on to consumers to push up consumer price inflation in goods depends on market conditions – specifically on consumers. If consumers refuse to pay whatever, if they shop around and compare, and buy from a competitor or forgo purchases whose price has jumped, then companies cannot pass on the tariffs because if they raise prices, their sales will fall, and they will lose market share. Which is what is currently happening in new vehicle sales. After automakers and dealers jacked up prices during the pandemic – the CPI for new vehicles soared by 21% in two years — prices hit a ceiling. It’s a tough market. New vehicles have become very expensive. There is not a lot of demand at these prices. Automakers and dealers have to offer deals to make sales. It’s a market-share battle. Some models have 65% or 70% or more in US content, and have far less tariff exposure than imported vehicles with near-zero US content, or vehicles assembled in the USA with mostly imported parts that have little US content. GM imports vehicles from Mexico, South Korea, China, and Canada after having globalized its production when it emerged from bankruptcy with the help of a government bailout. It said in its earnings warning that it expects tariffs to cost it $5 billion this year. But no biggie. It will continue to incinerate billions of dollars in cash on share buybacks. Ford raised its estimate for its costs of the tariffs for this year to $2 billion. They have to compete with models from Tesla, Honda, Toyota, Hyundai-Kia, etc. that are assembled in the USA with much higher US content. For automakers and dealers, the problem now is that consumers are no longer willing to pay whatever. The 21% price spike in 2021 and 2022, when automakers and dealers amassed big-fat record profits, was only possible because consumers, loaded with free money, were willing to pay whatever, including the odious addendum stickers that appeared at that time. But that was then, and this is now. The free money is gone, and consumers are no longer willing to pay whatever. The Consumer Price Index for new vehicles for June declined for the third month in a row, seasonally adjusted (red line). Not seasonally adjusted, it eased for the second month in a row (blue line), and was about flat year-over-year. Here are the details of our CPI analysis. Companies always try to raise prices and get the maximum price possible. They use “dynamic pricing” online where prices can change from minute to minute, based on various factors, including what is known about the buyer. They hike prices and then offer “discounts,” they’ll do anything they can to make comparison-shopping harder. There is nothing new about that, and tariffs won’t change it. Companies will always try to get the maximum price possible. What keeps price increases limited, in normal times, are vigilant consumers that are not willing to pay whatever. That’s how a free market operates. The free-money era of 2020-2022 destroyed that balance, and inflation and retailer profits – see charts further down – exploded. Durable goods prices overall barely budged in June from May, and year-over-year were up just 0.6%. The durable goods CPI had exploded by 25% in two years from mid-2020 to mid-2022 during the free-money era. Then prices declined for two years (negative CPI). But from September 2024, prices inched up again through January, and since then have been roughly flat. Apparel and footwear are also heavily exposed to tariffs. The CPI for apparel and footwear rose by 0.4% month-to-month in June but only undid the equal drop in May, with no price change over the two-month period. Year-over-year, the CPI for apparel and footwear declined by 0.5%. Consumers are in no mood to pay whatever. Some prices of goods rose in recent months while others declined. Companies are always trying to raise prices. It’s up to the buyers to walk away. That’s part of a free market. If a company’s sales crater and its market share shrinks because it raised prices and enough ticked-off consumers shifted purchases around, then that’s an expensive lesson. So this is a very tough situation for companies to be in. To what extent tariffs can be passed on to consumers is unpredictable and depends on market conditions – on the consumers.
Company advised by Trump sons said it hoped to benefit from fed money, then took it back (AP) — A public document filed by a company that just hired President Donald Trump’s two oldest sons as advisers included a sentence early Monday that said it hoped to benefit from grants and other incentives from the federal government, which their father happens to lead. But when The Associated Press asked the Trump family business about the apparent conflict of interest, the document was revised and the line taken out. Eric Trump and Donald Trump Jr. are getting “founder shares” worth millions of dollars in New America Acquisition 1 Corp., a company with no operating business that hopes to fill that hole by purchasing an American company that can play “a meaningful role in revitalizing domestic manufacturing,” according to the filing. The president has geared his trade policy toward boosting manufacturing in the U.S. The original version of the securities filing said the target company should be “well positioned” to tap federal or state government incentives. That reference was taken out of the revised version. The Trump Organization didn’t reply to a question about whether New America still planned to benefit from government programs or why the line was cut. But the outside law firm Paul Hastings that helped prepare the document sent an email to AP saying it was “mistake” made by “scriveners,” an old term for transcribers of legal papers. Kathleen Clark, an expert in government ethics, said any excuses are too late because the Trumps had already tipped their hand. “They just deleted the language. They haven’t committed not to do what they said earlier today they were planning to do,” said the Washington University law professor and Trump critic. “It’s an attempt to exploit public office for private profit.”
Cash Sent Home By Mexicans Craters 16.2% In June As More Immigrants Leave US Workforce -According to Banxico, Mexico's national bank, remittances from the United States have fallen by nearly 6% since January, and 16.2% during the month of June - when only $5.2 billion was sent back to Mexico, vs $6.207 billion in the same month in 2024. And while the bank reports that the average amount being sent back is higher than in 2024 at $409, the number of people sending money back has dropped by 14%. Executives at Western Union recently admitted on an earnings call that the outflow of hot money from the United States has slowed amid the crackdown on illegal aliens.CFO Matt Cagwin told Wall Street analysts that they "continued to see weakness in North America, driven by immigration policy, which led to a slowdown in the independent channel." CEO Devin McGranahan explained that the "slowdown" is in both retail and digital businesses between the United States and Mexico.
DHS pushes for more sites like Alligator Alcatraz -Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem called Florida’s “Alligator Alcatraz” a model for state-run immigrant detention facilities, saying the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) is hoping to create other similar sites. “The locations we’re looking at are right by airport runways that will help give us an efficiency that we’ve never had before,” Noem told CBS News. Alligator Alcatraz, built near the Dade-Collier Training and Transition Airport in a 30 square mile area otherwise surrounded by the Everglades, has come under fire for poor conditions. Built in just a matter of days, the facility uses soft-side tents with chain-link fences to create cells that separate units of bunks. Detainees have complained of maggot-filled food, flooding floors, insects everywhere, and poorly functioning air conditioning GOP voices have boasted of the difficulty of the terrain, with scorching temperatures and swampland that is home to alligators and snakes. Noem told CBS that similar sites are under consideration in Arizona, Nebraska and Louisiana. While the DHS is flush with funds from the “big, beautiful bill” to build new detention centers that can double detention capacity to as high as 100,000, Noem framed the matter as a cost-saving effort. The facilities are cheaper than those available through private contractors and the hope is to have migrants in the facilities — and quickly deported — within days, “facilitating quick turnarounds.” “They’re all strategically designed to make sure that people are in beds for less days,” Noem said. “It can be much more efficient once they get their hearings, due process, paperwork.”
Penske ‘did not authorize’ DHS use of its trucks in immigration raid -Penske Truck Rental said Wednesday it “did not authorize” the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) to use its trucks in an immigration raid.“Penske Truck Rental is aware of recent reports and videos regarding a Department of Homeland Security (DHS) operation in Los Angeles,” Penske said in a statement posted on the social platform X.“Penske strictly prohibits the transportation of people in the cargo area of its vehicles under any circumstances. The company was not made aware that its trucks would be used in today’s operation and did not authorize this. Penske will reach out to DHS and reinforce its policy to avoid improper use of its vehicles in the future,” the statement continued.
ICE ends age cap, opening positions to older applicants -- U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) is eliminating the age cap on new hires, allowing people older than 40 to join its deportation force.The move will end the limitations on the physically demanding job at a time when the Trump administration is pressed for personnel to carry out its mass deportation agenda.“We are ENDING the age cap for ICE law enforcement,” Department of Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem wrote in a post on the social platform X. “Qualified candidates can now apply with no age limit.”The shift also eliminates the age limit for those seeking to serve as investigators, which was previously capped at 37.A press release from the Department of Homeland Security touts the shift as being “backed by significant new funding through the recently signed One Big Beautiful Bill.”The department on Wednesday also touted an up to $50,000 signing bonus and up to $60,000 in student loan repayment.The change prompted questions about whether the agency is having trouble attracting qualified candidates.
FEMA staff reassigned to ICE as hurricane season heats up - The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) is temporarily transferring personnel from the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) just ahead of the peak of hurricane season as it seeks to speed hiring for immigration officers. DHS is detailing roughly 100 people from FEMA’s human resources and security teams to help process applicants at U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) amid a bid to hire 10,000 extra officers. “Under President Trump’s leadership and through the One Big Beautiful Bill, DHS is adopting an all-hands-on-deck strategy to recruit 10,000 new ICE agents. To support this effort, select FEMA employees will temporarily be detailed to ICE for 90 days to assist with hiring and vetting,” DHS said in a statement. “Their deployment will NOT disrupt FEMA’s critical operations. FEMA remains fully prepared for Hurricane Season.” The Washington Post first reported the move, which it said would impact roughly half of FEMA’s human resources team. It’s not unusual for departments to detail employees from one agency to another, and ICE has previously helped with hurricane response. But usually such assignments are voluntary and not in the weeks when hurricane season is expected to accelerate. FEMA’s human resources staff in particular serve a critical role alongside its security staff as the agency looks to swiftly hire local staff to respond to disasters./p>
Appeals court scraps James Boasberg’s contempt order against Trump officials --A federal appeals court panel voted 2-1 Friday to scrap a judge’s probable cause finding to hold Trump administration officials in criminal contempt for disobeying his order to turn around deportation flights ultimately destined for El Salvador.The U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit ruled the administration was entitled to an intervention because U.S. District Judge James Boasberg’s efforts to punish administration officials raised immediate concerns.”The order forces a coequal branch to choose between capitulating to an unlawful judicial order and subjecting its officials to a dubious prosecution,” wrote U.S. Circuit Judge Neomi Rao, who was in the majority.Rao was joined by U.S. Circuit Judge Gregory Katsas, both Trump appointees.. U.S. Circuit Judge Cornelia Pillard, an appointee of former President Obama, dissented. She complimented Boasberg for his “skill and wisdom” handling the case, which has sparked impeachment threats from Trump and a barrage of public criticism from his supporters.
Trump's BLS firing impacts perceptions more than numbers -- By firing one of the country's top economic research officials, President Donald Trump might have instilled less confidence in the legitimacy of government-produced data rather than more. The removal of the commissioner of the Bureau of Labor Statistics is unlikely to change government data practices in the near term, experts say, but the perception of interference will have a big effect on the credibility of government economic metrics going forward.
Trump targets Social Security for privatization --US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent boasted Wednesday that a provision in legislation passed by Congress and signed into law by President Trump last month would provide “a back door for privatizing Social Security,” threatening the monthly benefits on which nearly 70 million Americans, most of them elderly, rely on to live. Bessent was speaking about the giant tax and spending bill Trump signed July 4, making permanent Trump’s 2017 tax cuts for the wealthy and big business. The bill funnels an estimated $3 trillion to the super-rich, while cutting more than $1 trillion in spending on Medicaid, food stamps and other vital programs on which tens of millions of working people depend. One section of the 1,000-page bill establishes what are modestly titled “Trump accounts” of $1,000 each for every baby born in the United States from 2025 through 2028, the entirety of Trump’s second term. (The original title was reportedly “money account for growth and advancement,” or MAGA accounts, but this was replaced by something even more directly flattering to the would-be dictator). Families could contribute up to $5,000 a year tax-free to these accounts until age 18, or employers could make the contributions as a benefit to favored employees. Given the near-impossible struggle of working people to pay their regular bills—to say nothing of going ever further into debt—the accounts of working class children would likely remain at $1,000, invested in index-linked funds through brokerages or other private financial institutions. For the children of affluent families, able to set aside the additional $5,000 a year, the tax-free wealth accumulation could be considerable. According to calculations by the Urban Institute and Washington Monthly, making optimistic assumptions like 8 percent annual return and no financial collapses, the children of the affluent by age 18 would have accounts averaging $191,000, compared to $4,000 for those whose families were unable to make those investments. The disparity at age 65 would be even starker: $6.86 million for one, $93,000 for the other. These figures, well understood by Bessent, Russell Vought and other Trump administration budget-cutters, actually refute Bessent’s claim that the Trump accounts will out-compete Social Security benefits and thus provide political cover for “back door privatization.” He told his audience, “Social Security is a defined benefit plan” and said of the promotion of market-based accounts, “that’s a game changer, too.” In other words, the Trump administration envisions doing to Social Security what countless corporate employers have done to workers’ pensions: converting them to 401k accounts which have no defined benefits, but instead subject retirees to the risks of highly unstable financial speculation. The real political meaning of Bessent’s remarks is demonstrated by the venue at which he made them: a Washington conference sponsored by Breitbart News, one of the main online media outlets of the fascist right, once run by Steve Bannon. Bessent warned his fascist audience of the danger represented by the shift to the left among young people, as expressed in the vote for New York City Democratic mayoral candidate Zohran Mamdani, a member of the Democratic Socialists of America. Clearly more concerned about the threat of Mamdani’s voters, particularly the youth, than the mild reforms proposed by the Democrat himself, Bessent warned that the New York election showed “people have given up on a market-based system.” The Trump accounts would counter that, he said. “When you do this, you make everyone a shareholder,” he claimed. “You make everyone a stakeholder. People who are part of the system do not want to bring down the system.” On Thursday, speaking to CNBC, Bessent doubled down on this argument, saying, “I was talking about the $1,000 baby bonds that every American citizen, every newborn, is going to get. The Democrats hate this program because … it brings capitalism and markets to every American.”
Social Security $1.5T investment fund proposal: What to know -A bipartisan duo in the Senate has been garnering attention for a pitch aimed at shoring up the solvency of Social Security. The idea, pushed by Sens. Bill Cassidy (R-La.) and Tim Kaine (D-Va.), calls for investing $1.5 trillion over the next five years into an investment fund that would then be given 70 years to grow. “It is something to save Social Security, and to save the benefits flowing to the people, frankly, will either already depend on them or will depend upon them going forward,” Cassidy told The Hill last month. Here’s what lawmakers — and some experts — have said so far. While the senators have yet to release text for the plan, Cassidy said the government would create an investment fund separate from the existing Social Security trust funds, into which the government would place $300 billion annually over the next five years. That money would be invested into stocks, bonds and other investments, and Cassidy said it would be held “in escrow for 70 years.” “Any dividends being paid, for example, flow back into the investment fund. As that occurs, we also repeal the law requiring that benefits be cut to match income,” Cassidy told The Hill. The Treasury Department would be responsible for making up the payments for those 75 years, at which point the fund would pay back the Treasury Department and use its remaining funds to supplement Social Security payments, according to the senators. Cassidy argued the plan would not add to the national debt, which currently stands at well more than $30 trillion. “The reason is that if you have money in an escrow account, you could always just empty the escrow account and pay off the Treasuries required to do the initial funding,” he said. “And so, even though we’re borrowing that money, it does not increase our nation’s indebtedness and the investment income will exceed the interest that accumulates on the money borrowed.” Cassidy estimated the plan could “generate at least 70 percent of the borrowing required to pay the benefits over the next seven decades.” The senators have said they’re still collecting input on their plan, but the pitch is similar to a previous effort headed up by Cassidy that involved a coalition of senators from both sides of the aisle. “In a previous Congress, we had seven Republicans and seven Democrats. We’re putting that coalition back together,” Cassidy said. As the senators continue to “socialize” the idea, Cassidy said there’s more than a handful of Republicans who have said “they will openly support or they look forward to supporting, but they just plan to learn a little bit more.” “We really felt like we have to socialize the idea more before we get down to legislative draftsmanship,” Kaine also said of the idea, noting they’ve been hearing feedback from some experts.
Donald Trump ousts Billy Long as IRS commissioner 2 months after his confirmation: report (AP) — President Donald Trump has removed former U.S. Rep. Billy Long as IRS commissioner less than two months after his confirmation, a White House official said Friday.The official, who was not authorized to speak publicly and spoke on condition of anonymity, did not give a reason for the dismissal. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent will serve as acting commissioner, the official said.The Senate confirmed Long on a 53-44 vote despite Democrats’ concerns about the Republican’s past work for a firm that pitched a fraud-ridden coronavirus pandemic-era tax break and about campaign contributions he received after Trump nominated him.While in Congress, where he served from 2011 to 2023, Long sponsored legislation to get rid of the IRS. A former auctioneer, Long has no background in tax administration.
Pharma industry loses on Medicare price negotiations - -- Three separate federal courts ruled against the pharmaceutical industry this week, with some cases having previously been dismissed. A federal judge dismissed the U.S. Chamber of Commerce’s lawsuit challenging Medicare negotiations a year ago, and this ruling was upheld Wednesday by the Sixth Circuit Court of Appeals. The suit was dismissed on the basis that some of the plaintiffs — the Dayton Area Chamber of Commerce, the Ohio Chamber of Commerce, and the Michigan Chamber of Commerce — lacked standing to sue. While the appeals court clarified that local and state organizations can sue over federal laws that impact them, it still found that the case was improperly filed. The court agreed that the U.S. Chamber of Commerce had standing to sue, but it would need to file a new lawsuit in a separate venue. On Thursday, Medicare negotiation lawsuits challenging the constitutionality of the program were both ruled against. PhRMA, another trade group, saw its lawsuit dismissed by a Texas federal judge who found that the organization had failed to demonstrate irreparable harm or constitutional violations stemming from Medicare negotiations. In Connecticut, the U.S. 2nd Circuit Court of Appeals upheld a decision from last year against the pharmaceutical company Boehringer Ingelheim. Three of the company’s products have been selected for Medicare negotiation. As has been the case in other rulings, such as the one in Texas, the court relied on the fact that participation in Medicare is entirely voluntary, meaning companies are not being deprived of certain rights because of the negotiation program. When reached for comment by The Hill, PhRMA spokesperson Sarah Ryan said, “We disagree with the district court’s legal assessment. We continue to believe the IRA’s price-setting provisions are unconstitutional.” With compounding losses in appellate courts, the pharmaceutical industry may be gearing up to take Medicare negotiations before the Supreme Court.
Congress wants to cut the smartest investment taxpayers ever made - Virtually every smartphone on the planet runs on a chip paid for by American taxpayers — a chip that I helped invent. Now Congress is moving to cut funding for the National Science Foundation that could lead to future breakthroughs. Investing in innovation is not wasteful spending. It is one of the smartest investments Washington makes, creating new jobs, stronger businesses and higher tax revenue in every corner of the country. Cutting the level of government funding for scientific research now would rip those future returns out of American hands and deliver them to our global competitors.I built my career in public universities. Over four decades, I helped lead a dozen federally funded research labs. Five of them produced breakthrough technologies that became part of the backbone of modern life.In the 1980s, we developed a much more efficient style of microprocessor (the RISC chip) in a university lab with graduate students funded by the government. At the time, few imagined that breakthrough would one day power 300 billion chips. The National Science Foundation also funded research that made digital storage much more reliable and affordable (called RAID storage), enhancing everything from cloud computing to online banking. These innovations helped launch entire industries and are used daily by billions of people.These breakthroughs did not come from corporate boardrooms or billionaire-backed startups. They were built by students, developed in public labs and funded by American taxpayers.For decades, my research received support from the NSF’s Directorate for Computer and Information Science and Engineering, through grants and Ph.D. fellowships. All told, American taxpayers invested just under $100 million in the labs I helped lead. Accounting for inflation, technologies that came out of them went on to generate over $1 trillion in product sales. That is a 10,000-to-1 return on investment to the public and surely at least 1,000-to-1 return directly back to the government in taxes. Not from luck, but from decades of public investment.And the payoff is real. These gains show up as jobs in 44 states, tools that power small businesses and tax revenue that supports public schools, infrastructure and national defense. These returns belong to the American taxpayer.This isn’t some ivory tower experiment or elite subsidy. It is an innovation engine and one of the most powerful drivers of U.S. economic strength.
Imminent Supreme Court ruling could doom lawsuits over canceled grants -- A Supreme Court decision expected within days could affect thousands of federal grant recipients battling the Trump administration over the termination of their funding for projects including for climate and environmental justice work.The case on the high court’s “shadow docket” of emergency cases centers on the National Institutes of Health’s attempt to cancel hundreds of millions of dollars in research grants awarded to scientists and universities. NIH says the research focuses on diversity, equity and inclusion, which are at odds with administration priorities.There are similarities between the government’s effort to cancel the NIH grants and EPA’s effort to reclaim billions of dollars awarded for things like green lending, community cleanup projects and climate resilience. The money was allocated during the Biden administration and has long been under contractLawyers are awaiting the Supreme Court decision — which could come at any time — for hints of how challenges to EPA’s termination of grants could be treated by lower courts or the Supreme Court itself. The latest briefs were filed with the Supreme Court on Monday.“It could come out in ways that are very important for the climate cases, and it could come out in ways that really don’t have a lot to do with the climate cases,” said David Super, a law professor at Georgetown University Law Center.The Trump administration has justified its bid to rescind a range of finalized grant awards — including for research and climate law programs — by arguing that the executive branch has broad authority to void awards that conflict with a new president’s policy objectives. In canceling grants for research in areas like Buddhism and HIV stigma and puberty and transgender youth, NIH cited three of President Donald Trump’s directives, including an Inauguration Day executive order condemning “radical and wasteful government DEI programs.”EPA originally cited the DEI order to justify canceling all grants under certain Biden-era programs, such as the Community Change Grants program, which was to give historically marginalized communities $1.6 billion to clean up pollution or prepare for climate change risks.When EPA issued termination letters for the program in May — with litigation over the terminations already underway — the agency said more generally that the awards are “no longer consistent with EPA funding priorities.”Justice Department attorneys defending Trump administration grant cancellations — including those representing NIH in the Supreme Court case — have argued repeatedly that challenges to the cancellations are contracts disputes and the only legal recourse is for recipients to sue EPA for damages in federal claims court.The administration cites the 19th-century Tucker Act, which gave private citizens the right to sue the federal government in federal claims court and recover damages. Plaintiffs in claims court can receive only monetary compensation. The claims court cannot reverse grant terminations or other federal decisions — which is the main benefit to the Trump administration in seeking a venue change in grant cancellation cases.
Donald Trump's executive order tightens political control over federal grant funding - President Trump on Thursday signed an executive order tightening control of the federal grant funding process, requiring political appointees to sign off on each grant.The order directs each agency head to designate a senior appointee who will be responsible for creating a process to review grant opportunity announcements and to ensure any grants awarded are “consistent with agency priorities and the national interest.”“In short, there is a strong need to strengthen oversight and coordination of, and to streamline, agency grantmaking to address these problems, prevent them from recurring, and ensure greater accountability for use of public funds more broadly,” the order states. “The Government holds tax revenue in trust for the American people, and agencies should treat it accordingly.”The text of the order cites federal grants that have been given to universities that are used to cover “facilities and administrative costs.” It also points to a federal grant that supported gain-of-function research, which came under scrutiny amid the COVID-19 outbreak in 2020.The order is part of a broader effort by the Trump administration to review and eliminate funding that does not align with the president’s “America First” agenda. For months, Trump has clashed with Ivy League universities such as Harvard University, Brown University and the University of Pennsylvania. The Department of Government Efficiency has also sought to slash federal contracts, while the White House worked with Congress to claw back roughly $9 billion in previously approved funding for State Department programs and the Corporation for Public Broadcasting.
HHS bars liaison members from ACIP work groups --In another change to how the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) vaccine advisory group operates, the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) on July 31 sent a letter to members of about 30 nonvoting liaison groups from medical and public health organizations that bars their participation on work groups, CNN reported, based on a letter it obtained. The email called the liaison members special interest groups that are expected to be biased based on the constituencies they represent. The liaison groups include organizations such as the American Academy of Pediatrics and the American College of Obstetricians and Gynecologists. The work groups have typically assisted with vaccine efficacy and safety reviews, considering the age-groups that would most benefit and weighing the costs and benefits. Work groups, which also include CDC staff, craft the wording of proposed recommendations for discussion and vote at Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP) meetings. Liaison members don’t vote on the recommendations at the meetings but can ask questions and comment on presentations. In early June, HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. removed all 17 members of the previous ACIP and replaced them with eight new members, including several who are vaccine skeptics or have little expertise in vaccine science. At its first meeting of the new group in July, the group revived long-discredited antivaccine boilerplate topics, including thimerosal as a vaccine additive and the cumulative effects of childhood vaccines.ACIP’s charter notes about 30 specific groups that hold nonvoting seats on the ACIP. It also allows the HHS secretary to appoint other liaison members based on the committee’s needs. According to longstanding ACIP work group operating procedure rules, last updated in August 2018, liaison members and ex-officio members must sign an annual membership agreement and conflict-of-interest forms. A day after the HHS letter about the work group involvement was sent, members from eight liaison groups published a statement that said they were deeply disappointed and alarmed to be barred from reviewing scientific data and informing the development of vaccine recommendations. “To remove our deep medical expertise from this vital and once transparent process is irresponsible, dangerous to our nation’s health, and will further undermine public and clinician trust in vaccines,” the authors wrote, calling it a step backward for transparency and public health. The group included several major medical associations, including the Infectious Diseases Society of America.
HHS scraps further work on life-saving mRNA vaccine platform -In what experts say will hobble pandemic preparedness, US Health and Human Services (HHS) Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. yesterday announced the dismantling of the country's mRNA vaccine-development programs—the same innovation that allowed rapid scale-up of COVID-19 vaccines during the public health emergency.The Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority (BARDA) is terminating 22 mRNA vaccine-development contracts totaling just under $500 million, including an award to Moderna/University of Texas Medical Branch for a vaccine against the H5N1 avian flu now sweeping the world. That grant was terminated in late May. Contracts awarded to Emory University and Tiba Biotech were cancelled, and agreements with Luminary Labs, ModeX, and Seqirus have been scaled back. Proposals from firms such as Pfizer, Sanofi Pasteur, CSL Seqirus, and Gritstone that were part of BARDA's Rapid Response Partnership Vehicle and VITAL Hub have been rejected or cancelled, and collaborations on nucleic-acid–based vaccines between the Department of Defense and AstraZeneca, HDT Bio, and Access to Advanced Health Institute have been restructured."While some final-stage contracts (e.g., Arcturus and Amplitude) will be allowed to run their course to preserve prior taxpayer investment, no new mRNA-based projects will be initiated," the HHS press release said. "HHS has also instructed its partner, Global Health Investment Corporation (GHIC), which manages BARDA Ventures, to cease all mRNA-based equity investments."Michael Osterholm, PhD, MPH, director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy (CIDRAP) at the University of Minnesota, publisher of CIDRAP News, calls RFK's decision one of the worst decisions he's seen in 50 years of public health preparedness work. "mRNA technology could save us in the next pandemic," he said.This is because flu-vaccine manufacturing capacity using the standard method of growing the virus in chicken eggs is much slower than mRNA production; it would take 14 months to make enough vaccine for only about 2 billion people—far short of the 8 billion needed for global coverage. But mRNA technology could manufacture enough for everyone within 1 year, Osterholm said.Andrew Pekosz, PhD, professor and vice chair at Johns Hopkins University, said on X that while mRNA vaccine technology isn't perfect, "it's a critical improvement over many existing vax platforms. This sets back vaccine science by a decade."Rather than mRNA vaccines, which Secretary Kennedy claimed collapse after a single mutation, he is turning to whole-virus vaccines, a long-discredited platform, Peter Hotez, MD, PhD, professor and dean of the National School of Tropical Medicine at Baylor College of Medicine, said on X. "First, it’s unreliable bc [because] you never know what viruses will grow in eggs or cell lines," he said. "You need a high titer [concentration] of virus. Second, two of our nation’s most troubling adverse vaccine reactions occurred using this approach."Hotez cited two examples of whole-virus vaccine failures: a 1960s formalin-inactivated RSV vaccine that resulted in 80% of child recipients being hospitalized for severe respiratory disease and two dying, and a 1976 swine flu vaccine associated with increased cases of Guillain-Barre syndrome."Why does he pick the least desirable technology?" Hotez asked.
Grassley places holds on 3 Trump Treasury nominees -Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa) is placing a hold on three of President Trump’s nominees to the Treasury Department over forthcoming administration rules expected to hamper tax credits for wind and solar energy. Grassley, who recently engaged in a heated back-and-forth with Trump over the handling of judicial picks, announced his move to place the holds in the congressional record Friday. “Today, I placed a hold on three Department of the Treasury nominees,” he said in the record, specifically naming Trump’s picks for the department’s general counsel, assistant secretary and undersecretary. The Iowa Republican added that while the “big, beautiful, bill” recently passed by Congress allowed for wind and solar companies to continue to get tax credits if they begin construction of their projects in the next year, the Treasury Department “is expected to issue rules and regulations implementing the agreed upon phase-out of the wind and solar credits by August 18, 2025.” “Until I can be certain that such rules and regulations adhere to the law and congressional intent, I intend to continue to object to the consideration of these Treasury nominees,” Grassley said. Sen. John Curtis (R-Utah) is also placing a hold on the same nominees — Brian Morrissey Jr., Francis Brooke and Jonathan McKernan — for the same reason, a source familiar told The Hill. It’s not entirely clear whether these holds will actually have a significant impact on the nominations. Typically, they can slow the process of confirming a nominee, requiring the chamber to spend hours debating and taking additional votes for each nominee without ultimately blocking them. With a handful of nominees, holds are more of an annoyance, but in some cases — like in 2023, when Sen. Tommy Tuberville (R-Ala.) put holds on hundreds of military promotions — they have successfully delayed nominations for a significant period.
Senate Republicans put holds on nominees over renewables --At least two Republican senators placed holds on Treasury Department nominees over fears and frustration with the Trump administration’s rhetoric on renewable energy sources.Sens. Chuck Grassley of Iowa and John Curtis of Utah are making it harder to confirm Brian Morrissey Jr. to be general counsel, Francis Brooke to be an assistant secretary and Jonathan McKernan to be an undersecretary.Grassley, Curtis and other moderate Republicans want to make sure Treasury follows a compromise in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act on the phase-out of renewable energy credits. Enough dissent among Republicans could imperil a nominee because of the party’s small margins.Grassley announced his holds in comments published in the Congressional Record, and Curtis joined him, according to a person familiar with the situation.“During consideration of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, I worked with my colleagues to provide wind and solar an appropriate glidepath for the orderly phase-out of the tax credits,” Grassley said. “Ultimately, Congress enshrined in statute a 12-month transition period based on when projects ‘begin construction.’”He added: “What it means for a project to ‘begin construction’ has been well established by Treasury guidance for more than a decade. Moreover, Congress specifically references current Treasury guidance to set that term’s meaning in law. This is a case where both the law and congressional intent are clear.”Holds mean a nominee can’t pass by unanimous consent. Democrats have not allowed any Trump picks to get that treatment. Still, Republicans can only afford to lose three members, assuming Vice President JD Vance would break a tie.Last month, President Donald Trump issued an executive order promising to end “market distorting subsidies for unreliable, foreign controlled energy sources.” That edict directs Treasury to issue implementing guidance for the clean energy credits by Aug. 18.Curtis, Grassley and Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska) have been pushing for assurances the administration will comply with language allowing wind and solar projects to access tax breaks should they begin construction by July 2026.But last week, concern grew the Trump administration would not hold up their end of the bargain. The administration unleashed a slew of attacks on wind and solar, with the Interior Department moving to purge any “preferential treatment” toward wind and solar in agency regulations and targeting the density of renewable energy projects.The Bureau of Ocean Energy Management also rescinded areas of the U.S. outer continental shelf from offshore wind development.
Dems revive resolution to quash Trump energy emergency - Senate Democrats are reviving a push to terminate President Donald Trump’s energy emergency as they blame the White House for rising electricity prices.Democrats lost an effort earlier this year to pass a joint resolution against the president’s emergency declaration, which allows the government to bypass environmental review to ramp energy production, a move they say favors fossil fuels over renewables.Now Democrats think might be able to get some Republicans on board. “The economic effects become more and more obvious,” sponsor Sen. Tim Kaine (D-Va.) said in an interview Friday.He reasoned that both Trump’s tariffs and the One Big Beautiful Act are going to hinder domestic power supply and cause American utility bills to rise. It’s something Democrats are looking to hammer the GOP on heading into the midterms.Trump team pushes for ouster of top IEA official - The Trump administration is aiming to replace a top-ranking official at the International Energy Agency, amid a ratcheted-up U.S. pressure campaign on the Paris-based body, multiple energy industry insiders and former U.S. officials with knowledge of the situation told POLITICO’s E&E News.The agency’s second-in-command, a retired State Department official named Mary Warlick, is the main target for replacement, said the insiders, who were granted anonymity to speak freely.The pressure follows months of public frustrations with the IEA from top Trump administration officials, most notably Energy Secretary Chris Wright, who has vowed to make changes at the body or withdraw U.S. support. Some Republicans say the IEA has discouraged investment in fossil fuels by publishing analyses that show near-term peaks in global demand for oil and gas.“The product that the IEA produces is not generally accepted by everybody. It’s just not,” said Mark Menezes, who served as deputy Energy secretary during President Donald Trump’s first term. “And the political context has changed.”The Trump administration is aiming to push changes internally, according to a Republican energy lobbyist with close ties to the Department of Energy. “They want to get operatives in there, whether they’re career or political, who can actually move the needle,” said the lobbyist. “They’re going to get someone they trust and that person is going to fight from the inside out.”He added of the U.S. pressure campaign on the IEA, “The fact that Wright is out there now talking about it publicly shows that it’s elevated.”The White House, meanwhile, is championing fossil fuels as more reliable and often cheaper than wind, solar, and other clean energy sources, despite analysis that suggests renewable power is cheaper and faster to deploy. Now, House lawmakers are threatening to withdraw U.S. funding for the IEA in the fiscal 2026 budget process — after passing a recissions package that cuts funding for United Nations agencies and other international organizations.Wright has criticized the IEA for its projection that oil demand will peak this decade, calling it “nonsensical” in a Breitbart interview in June. Republicans also bristled at the Biden administration’s use of IEA analysis in 2024 to justify a U.S. decision to pause consideration of new liquefied natural gas export permits.
NASA Wants To Put a Nuclear Reactor on the Moon -NASA is accelerating plans to set up a nuclear reactor to the Moon by the end of the decade, to power bases there and help America be the first nation to have an energy base powered by 24/7 nuclear power on the Moon and win the “second space race” with Russia and China. Back in 2020, NASA was planning to build a base and a nuclear power plant on the Moon by 2026 and invited proposals from companies ready to take on the challenge. The timeline has long lapsed, but NASA isn’t giving up, all the more so that Russia and China have announced on several occasions intentions to put up nuclear reactors on the Moon, too. Last year, the head of Russia’s space agency Roscosmos said that Russia is considering a nuclear power plant installation on the moon starting between 2033 and 2035. Russia—along with China—is considering the idea of placing a nuclear power plant on the moon over the next decade or so, and the two countries have been working together on a lunar program for nuclear space energy.“Today we are seriously considering a project—somewhere at the turn of 2033-2035—to deliver and install a power unit on the lunar surface together with our Chinese colleagues,” Yuri Borisov, head of Roscosmos, said in March 2024. Now NASA wants to beat the Russia-China venture and have a nuclear reactor on the Moon by 2030. U.S. Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy, who is also the interim NASA administrator, announced this weekaccelerated plans to have nuclear energy power future bases on the Moon, POLITICO reported first earlier this week. “We’re in a race to the moon, in a race with China to the moon,” Duffy said during a news conference this week. “And to have a base on the moon, we need energy.” It remains to be seen how soon and how feasible such an effort would be, and who will win the space race for setting up 24/7 energy to power future bases on the Moon, and, at some point in the more distant future, on Mars.
Deadly Titan submersible disaster was preventable: Coast Guard --The Titan submersible implosion that killed five people during an underwater voyage to the wreckage of the Titanic two years ago was a preventable incident, according to the U.S. Coast Guard, which concluded owner OceanGate failed to follow engineering protocols for testing, maintenance and safety. The U.S. Coast Guard’s two-year investigation, published Tuesday, found that OceanGate did not abide by “established” deep-sea protocols and lacked third-party oversight and experienced company workers, allowing CEO Stockton Rush to “completely ignore vital inspections, data analyses and preventative maintenance procedures, culminating in a catastrophic event.” “There is a need for stronger oversight and clear options for operators who are exploring new concepts outside of the existing regulatory framework. I am optimistic the ROI’s findings and recommendations will help improve awareness of the risks and the importance of proper oversight while still providing a pathway for innovation,” U.S. Coast Guard Marine Board of Investigation (MBI) Chair Jason Neubauer said in a statement. The probe found OceanGate, which was based out of Washington state, did not “ensure” an analysis was done to process the expected cycle of the Titan’s hull; overrelied on a real-time monitoring system to analyze the condition of the carbon fiber hull; and kept using the Titan after a number of incidents that “compromised the integrity of the hull and other critical components of the submersible without properly assessing or inspecting the hull.” The MBI also concluded the Titan’s hull construction and design “introduced flaws that weakened the overall structural integrity” of it.
Trump fires Brian Driscoll, ex-FBI director seen as champion of rank-and-file -- The FBI is firing the former acting director who led the bureau at the start of the Trump administration and refused to turn over a list of agents who worked on Jan. 6 cases. Brian Driscoll, who has returned to a career post at the bureau since departing its top spot, has been asked to leave by Friday, a source familiar confirmed to The Hill. Driscoll has been viewed as a champion of the bureau’s rank-and-file staff. He declined to turn over a list of the thousands of FBI agents who worked on investigations into those that stormed the Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021. The request to do so sparked a lawsuit from FBI staff members who feared the list would be used to target agents and could lead to retribution.The FBI declined to comment.
DOJ opens probe into New York AG Letitia James's office over Trump, NRA cases -- The Justice Department has opened an investigation into the Office of New York Attorney General Letitia James (D), the state’s top prosecutor, who brought a successful civil fraud case against President Trump. The probe by federal prosecutors, launched by the U.S. Attorney’s Office for the Northern District of New York, issued two subpoenas this week, seeking information related to James’s case against the Trump Organization as well as another brought against the National Rifle Association (NRA). Separately Friday, the Justice Department appointed Ed Martin to investigate a prior criminal referral made by the Federal Housing Finance Agency alleging James claimed a Virginia home was her primary residence to secure more favorable loan terms. Martin also appears to have been tapped for similar allegations made against Sen. Adam Schiff (D-Calif.), multiple outlets reported Friday. An attorney for James confirmed the inquiries, characterizing them as weaponization by the Department of Justice in going after a Trump adversary. “Investigating the fraud case Attorney General James won against President Trump and his businesses has to be the most blatant and desperate example of this administration carrying out the president’s political retribution campaign,” attorney Abbe Lowell said in a statement. “Weaponizing the Department of Justice to try to punish an elected official for doing her job is an attack on the rule of law and a dangerous escalation by this administration,” Lowell added. “If prosecutors carry out this improper tactic and are genuinely interested in the truth, we are ready and waiting with the facts and the law.” James scored a big victory in her civil suit against Trump, with a judge issuing a nearly half-billion-dollar penalty for the Trump Organization after determining the business overvalued its assets.
DOJ to launch grand jury probe over Russia allegations against Obama officials =-- Attorney General Pam Bondi on Monday directed Department of Justice (DOJ) officials to open a grand jury investigation into how Obama administration officials handled intelligence about Russian interference in the 2016 election. The grand jury probe marks another escalation of the Trump administration’s focus on allegations of wrongdoing by Obama officials, including the former president. Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard has in recent weeks declassified various documents connected to Russia’s election interference, claiming it showed “treasonous conspiracy” by Obama administration officials. “Following the compelling case outlined by DNI Tulsi Gabbard, which exposed clear and blatant weaponization by corrupt intelligence officials acting at the behest of the Democrat Party and likely former President Obama, the Administration remains committed to conducting a thorough investigation,” White House spokesperson Harrison Fields said in a statement. “This effort aims to provide the American people with the truth about the extent to which former government officials worked to sabotage the Trump administration and undermine the will of the American people in a clear attempt to subvert our Constitutional Republic,” Fields added. Fox News first reported that Bondi had directed the start of a grand jury investigation.The documents Gabbard has released do little to suggest wrongdoing by the intelligence community in seeking to investigate Russia’s efforts to influence the 2016 contest. Gabbard and other officials have pushed back on established findings from the intelligence community and a bipartisan Senate panel that Russia showed a preference for then-candidate Donald Trump in the 2016 election. Gabbard has alleged that Obama officials manipulated intelligence to harm Trump. Gabbard referred the documents to the Justice Department and FBI for potential criminal referrals, though the director repeatedly dodged when pressed on what crime former President Obama could be charged with. Obama’s office issued a rare public statement calling the document drops a “distraction” as Trump faced calls to release information about the prosecution of convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein. James Clapper, who served as director of national intelligence under Obama and has faced intense criticism from Trump officials, has called the allegations against him “patently false and unfounded.”
Former CIA Officer: Russiagate Deep State Operatives Still Work At The Agency -A former CIA operations officer has warned that Deep State operatives who concocted the fake Russia collusion narrative against President Trump under then Director John Brennan are still active inside the agency.Bryan Dean Wright told the Daily Caller that “At least two still do work there. That doesn’t mean that all of the other people have left. Those are just the two that I’m aware of.”Wright claims that One of the operatives still has a “blue badge,” meaning they are a direct CIA employee, while another possesses a “green badge,” and carries out work as a contractor. The Daily Caller notes that Wright declared in a recent op-ed that Brennan should “rot in prison” for treasonous plotting to undermine the integrity of the Republic. “These men thought they knew what was best for America, and they didn’t give a damn what voters like you thought,”the former spook asserted. Wright further suggested that because Brennan worked at the agency for so long, he likely continues to shape the culture at the CIA and has almost certainly cultivated generations of like minded employees. As we’ve highlighted, Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard has officially handed the Department of Justice a criminal referral relating to the “treasonous conspiracy” by Brennan, other Obama officials and the former President himself outlined in Declassified documents. Further documents released by Gabbard have revealed that not only did the CIA believe a Russian intelligence assessment that the 2016 Hillary Clinton campaign planned to smear Trump by linking him to the Kremlin, but that the FBI helped the Clinton campaign orchestrate the Russia hoax to distract from its investigation into her emails. The declassified documents also show that the Clinton Campaign plotted to use Crowdstrike to push the claim that Russian hackers leaked information from the Democratic National Convention (DNC) and the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC). President Trump has admitted that he previously refrained from pursuing an indictment for Hillary Clinton, but believes now she should “pay a very big price.” A House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence report declassified on July 23 has also shown that just five CIA analysts under Brennan wrote the 2017 intelligence assessment, which included the infamous fake Steele dossier, on which the Russia hoax was based. The report notes that according to a CIA self-assessment declassified on July 2, the analysts were part of a “Fusion Cell” Brennan had put together months to explore Russian election interference.There are concerns that those agents remain embedded in the framework of the CIA. Current CIA Director John Ratcliffe proclaimed last week that Brennan, James Comey, Hillary and others face “serious legal consequences,” for their roles in the scandal, revealing that he has made additional referrals for criminal prosecution, building on those sent weeks earlier by Gabbard, including one about Barack Obama.
GOP senators warn Donald Trump, Pam Bondi against Maxwell pardon over Epstein -Republican lawmakers are cautioning President Trump and Attorney General Pam Bondi to be very careful about granting a pardon to Ghislaine Maxwell, the Jeffrey Epstein confidante, or commuting her 20-year sentence for sex trafficking. Republican senators are waving the caution flag after Deputy Attorney General Todd Blanche met with Maxwell in Florida recently to gather more information on what she knows about Epstein’s illicit activities. The meeting came while Trump and Bondi were under pressure from MAGA-aligned activists to order the Justice Department to release all of its files related to Epstein. GOP lawmakers say Trump and Bondi need to proceed carefully on any decision to pardon Maxwell or lighten her sentence for sexually exploiting teenage girls. They worry it could be seen as rewarding her for making statements to distance the president from Epstein’s activities, or further fuel conspiracy theories about a government cover-up to protect powerful people who were in Epstein’s orbit. “It’s ridiculous that he would consider shortening a sentence for somebody who aided and abetted sexual trafficking as she did,” said a Republican senator who requested anonymity to comment on the sensitive topic. “She’s trafficking underage children. I can’t imagine anything she could say could nullify her heinous crimes,” the senator added. The senator said Maxwell has incentive to “lie” to reduce her sentence. Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.), a member of the Senate Judiciary Committee, said Maxwell has lied under oath before, citing the perjury charge that was filed against her for making false statements during a civil deposition in 2016. “They ended up dropping the perjury charge against her, but we know she’s a liar because even though they dropped that charge — because it was a lesser charge — she demonstrated that she lied,” he said. “What will a demonstrated liar do if they know that they can get a break? Lie more?” “I don’t think that her testimony is worth the paper it’s written on, because she’s a liar,” he said. “She also exploited young girls.” “I think she’s not a trustworthy witness,” he added. “She has a vested interest in lying so she can get relieved of some amount of her 20-year sentence.” Blanche, the No. 2-ranking official at the Justice Department, met with Maxwell on July 24 and July 25 to discuss Epstein’s crimes and other people who may have been involved in them. He wrote on social media that “no one is above the law — and no lead is off limits.” Maxwell has told House lawmakers that if she were to receive clemency, she would testify “openly and honestly” before Congress about Epstein, according to a letter her attorney David Oscar Markus sent to the House Oversight and Government Reform Committee. Markus told ABC News that Maxwell did not ask Blanche for a pardon but confirmed she is seeking “relief” from her prison sentence. Maxwell’s attorneys are asking the Supreme Court to overturn her 2021 conviction. Prison officials confirmed Friday that they moved Maxwell from a federal prison in Florida to a lower security federal prison camp in Texas, where inmates are allowed to move around relatively freely. Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska) said she has “no idea what to expect out” of the conversations between Maxwell and the Department of Justice but questioned if she could provide any new evidence that would merit a pardon or a significant reduction of her sentence. “Just because she comes and gives testimony doesn’t necessarily mean [she] should be given any kind of a pardon, I don’t think. There’s a lot more that has to be looked at,” she said. Sen. Mike Rounds (R-S.D.) said the president and the attorney general would need to come up with a strong explanation for pardoning Maxwell or commuting her sentence. “I honestly think it would be difficult” to grant Maxwell a pardon or sentence reduction, he said. “But, once again, it’s a prerogative that every president has on a federal crime.” “If these are federal crimes, the president has the ability” to offer a pardon or approve clemency, he said. “Every executive officer has to make up their own mind, and then they have to be able to justify how they did it, and why they did it.” Rounds, a former governor, said pardons and paroles can be a good thing, but the executive, whether the president or a governor, has “to know the reason why you’re giving a pardon.”
Trump slams WSJ amid Epstein lawsuit, claiming it’s ‘China centric’ -President Trump on Thursday slammed The Wall Street Journal’s editorial board for routinely criticizing his trade policy with “China-centric” rhetoric. “The reason that The Wall Street Journal Editorial Board is always negative on ‘TRUMP,’ and the Hundreds of Billions of Dollars we’re bringing into our Country through Tariffs, numbers that the U.S.A. has never seen before, is because they are China centric or, at a minimum, Globalists, and they would rather see China and the World, for reasons unknown, ‘WIN, BABY, WIN,’” the president wrote in a Truth Social post. “If the United States were not able to charge Tariffs to other Countries, it would be Economically defenseless and, of no further force or effect,” he added.In recent months, the Journal’s editorial board has published a series of op-eds critiquing the president’s fluctuating trade rates while alleging measures that violate federal law.“He’s treating the North American economy as a personal plaything, as markets gyrate with each presidential whim,” the board wrote in March. “It’s doubtful Mr. Trump even has the power to impose these tariffs, and we hope his afflatus gets a legal challenge.” Months later, the outlet published an article detailing a birthday letter allegedly signed by the president and sent to convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein.Trump denied the correspondence and responded with a lawsuit naming Rupert Murdoch, the Journal and NewsCorp, accusing the paper of relying on “sources that don’t even exist.”
Never-Before-Seen Photos Inside Jeffrey Epstein's Creepy Mansion --The New York Times published never-before-seen photos from inside Jeffrey Epstein's erie seven-story Upper East Side townhouse on Tuesday, revealing surveillance cameras placed in bedrooms and a first edition of "Lolita" prominently displayed throughout the New York City mansion. Among the bizarre scenes is a macabre sculpture of a woman in a bridal gown dangling from a rope greeting visitors in the entryway, alongside dozens of framed fake eyeballs in a display that raises serious questions about what really went on behind closed doors. However, the most eyebrow-raising photo is a $1 bill bearing a handwritten note from Microsoft co-founder Bill Gates. "I was wrong!" Gates appeared to have scrawled on the note.Epstein's residence was also adorned with framed photographs featuring prominent figures such as Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, Donald Trump, Bill Clinton, Pope John Paul II, Richard Branson, Elon Musk, and others, according to the Times. Another flight up, on the third floor, was Mr. Epstein’s sanctum — a suite that included his bedroom, the mansion’s infamous massage room and a cluster of bathrooms. More via the Times:As a gift for Jeffrey Epstein’s 63rd birthday, friends sent letters in tribute to the wealthy financier and convicted sex offender. Several shared a common theme: recounting the dinner gatherings that Mr. Epstein regularly hosted at his palatial townhouse on Manhattan’s Upper East Side.Ehud Barak, former prime minister of Israel, and his wife noted the great diversity of guests. “There is no limit to your curiosity,” they wrote in their message, which was compiled with others in January 2016. “You are like a closed book to many of them but you know everything about everyone.”The media mogul Mortimer Zuckerman suggested ingredients for a meal that would reflect the culture of the mansion: a simple salad and whatever else “would enhance Jeffrey’s sexual performance.”And the director Woody Allen described how the dinners reminded him of Dracula’s castle, “where Lugosi has three young female vampires who service the place.” The freshly published photos have slowly emerged over the years as part of the mountain of evidence that came to light when Epstein was finally arrested in 2019 on child sex-trafficking charges. The photos are the latest development in the ongoing Epstein saga, which continues to generate controversy after the Department of Justice and the FBI released a joint memo last month claiming that an "exhaustive review" of evidence from Epstein's death definitively ruled out murder. "After a thorough investigation, FBI investigators concluded that Jeffrey Epstein committed suicide in his cell at the Metropolitan Correctional Center in New York City on August 10, 2019," the memo reads.The agencies also denied the existence of a "client list" tied to Epstein, directly contradicting earlier remarks by Attorney General Pam Bondi. Bondi had previously suggested on Fox News that such a list was "sitting on my desk" for review, igniting speculation about Epstein's possible blackmailing of globalist elites. A photo from 2011 shows (from left) James Staley, Lawrence Summers, Epstein, Bill Gates and Boris Nikolic at the late pedophile’s Manhattan home. Trump has repeatedly sought to dismiss the scandal, accusing Democrats of fabricating a hoax around Epstein to thwart his agenda. Additionally, new questions have emerged about surveillance footage from the night before Epstein's death. An unidentifiedorange object seen in the surveillance video near the jail cell of deceased pedophile Jeffrey Epstein on the evening before his death has prompted a flurry of questions from forensic experts. The pixelated shape, first witnessed by CBS News, is seen shifting towards Epstein's cell block at the Metropolitan Correctional Center around 10:40 p.m. The object was a corrections officer "carrying linen or inmate clothing," according to federal investigators. However, experts told CBS News that it could in fact be an inmate wearing a jumpsuit. "Based on the limited video, it's more likely a person in an [orange] uniform," Conor McCourt, forensic video expert, said in a statement. "To say that there's no way that someone could get to that, the stairs up to his room, without being seen is false," Jim Safford, another forensic expert, told the news network.
Trump’s mental decline is undeniable — so what now? -“Confabulation.” It’s a word you are going to be hearing a lot in the coming months. President Trump has always been willing to mislead people when it was to his advantage. Even his supporters recognize this. Hence the famous admonition to “take Trump seriously, not literally.” But what Trump is doing now is something different. Confabulation is sometimes called “honest lying,” because the person doing it genuinely believes what he’s saying, even if it is obviously and patently false. A person confabulates when they are telling completely invented stories that don’t provide them any particular tangible benefit. In other words, it’s not like lying to try and get out of a speeding ticket. Confabulation isn’t misremembering a date or forgetting something. The mistakes of memory we are all subject to become confabulation when people remember false information in vivid detail — detail so vivid and complete that people who don’t know otherwise often believe what they are hearing is true. In older people, confabulation is one of the clearest early signs of dementia. The day you witness someone confabulate is often the day you are forced to admit to yourself that a beloved parent needs help, and that all the little slips and oddities you’ve been seeing can no longer be rationalized away. For Trump, the day we could no longer pretend everything is fine came on July 15, when he told a lengthy story about his uncle, John Trump, who he claimed taught at MIT and held three degrees in “nuclear, chemical, and math.” His uncle, according to Trump, once told him how he had taught Ted Kaczynski, the Unabomber, and how very smart Kaczynski was.Trump’s uncle was indeed a professor at MIT, but everything else in this story is pure confabulation. Trump’s uncle didn’t have degrees in “nuclear, chemical, and math” — he had degrees in electrical engineering and physics. And Kaczynski did not go to MIT at all — he went to Harvard. But most telling of all, it is categorically impossible for Trump’s uncle to have told him any such story. Kaczynski became publicly known as the Unabomber when he was arrested in 1996. Trump’s uncle, the MIT professor, died in 1985. In other words, Trump’s uncle could not have told him the story because there was, literally, no story to tell during his lifetime. Once you have seen that Donald Trump is confabulating, it cannot be unseen — and all sorts of other mildly disturbing incidents suddenly fall into place.
Gov. Abbott directs arrest of Texas Democrats - Texas Gov. Greg Abbott (R) on Monday ordered the arrest of the Democrats who fled the Lone Star State in an effort to halt the advancement of new congressional maps that could benefit Republicans in next year’s midterms. “Texas House Democrats abandoned their duty to Texans,” Abbott said in a statement. “By fleeing the state, Texas House Democrats are holding hostage critical legislation to aid flood victims and advance property tax relief. There are consequences for dereliction of duty. “Speaker Dustin Burrows just issued a call of the Texas House and issued warrants to compel members to return to the chamber. To ensure compliance, I ordered the Texas Department of Public Safety to locate, arrest, and return to the House chamber any member who has abandoned their duty to Texans. This order will remain in effect until all missing Democrat House members are accounted for and brought to the Texas Capitol.” Democrats’ refusal to show up was part of a rapidly escalating political contest over a controversial attempt by the state GOP to pass a highly unusual mid-decade partisan redistricting plan aimed at giving Texas Republicans five additional seats in Congress — while destroying several Democratic districts. In a separate statement, Abbott said he was also directing the Texas Rangers to investigate the Democrats over potential bribery in connection to donations they were allegedly receiving from donors to offset the $500 daily fines the lawmakers are facing. “Today, I ordered the Texas Rangers to immediately investigate fleeing Texas House Democrats for potential bribery and any other potential legal violations connected to their refusal to appear for a quorum, conduct business, and cast votes,” Abbott said. “That investigation should extend to anyone who aided or abetted such potential crimes.” Abbott’s comments followed House Speaker Dustin Burrows’s signature of an arrest warrant for any Democratic members that state troopers can locate. In comments on Monday, state Rep. Jolanda Jones (D) credited her party’s failure to stop a similar middecade effort in North Carolina with securing the margins needed for Republicans to pass Trump’s unpopular tax and spending bill, which is projected to cut $1 trillion from Medicaid to funnel tax cuts to the country’s wealthiest.
Blue-state Republicans sound alarm on redistricting battle -- Blue-state Republicans whose political futures would be at risk in retaliatory redistricting efforts by Democrats are sounding the alarm on Texas’s mid-decade effort to pad the GOP House majority.President Trump’s push to have Texas redraw its House maps — with a goal of picking up five seats ahead of next year — has prompted red and blue states alike to consider redrawing their maps in response. Mid-decade redistricting being considered in California alone could cancel out Republicans’ wins in the Lone Star State.The redistricting tit for tat is frustrating blue state Republicans.“I think the whole thing is pretty disgusting,” Rep. Doug LaMalfa (R-Calif.), whose reelection could be at risk if California Democrats pursue new maps, told The Hill of the redistricting battles across the country. Constituents don’t want politicians manufacturing “a temporary gain by — any side — manipulating lines.”Rep. Kevin Kiley (R-Calif.), who also could face running in an even more competitive House in California, introduced a bill this week that would prohibit mid-decade redistricting nationwide. Kiley told The Hill that California Gov. Gavin Newsom’s (D) plans for a special election to circumvent the state’s independent redistricting commission are “a very dangerous thing,” and “a threat to Democracy in our state.”“I don’t like what’s happening in Texas, either,” Kiley said. “The idea that we’re going to start constantly redrawing maps, and we could see this domino effect where districts or states across the country are shuffling the lines on their maps — it creates great instability. It creates chaos. It’s a huge distraction.”
Two 15-year-olds arrested in DC for assault on ex-Trump aide known as 'Big Balls' --Two teenagers were arrested in connection to the attempted carjacking of a former Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) staffer known as “Big Balls.” Authorities said the 15-year-old suspects, who were charged with unarmed carjacking, were among several teens who allegedly approached the victim, Edward Coristine, and a woman police identified as his significant other near a car around 3 a.m. EDT Sunday in Washington’s Logan Circle neighborhood.The group allegedly made comments about taking the car, before Coristine pushed his significant other into the vehicle for safety and prepared to confront the group, according to police. Law enforcement officials said Coristine turned to face the teenagers, and several of them attacked him until police patrolling the area intervened. The group fled on foot when police approached, authorities said. Coristine, a 19-year-old software engineer, was among the most visible figures associated with President Trump’s DOGE effort, aimed at slashing government spending and eliminating waste in the federal bureaucracy. Tech billionaire Elon Musk, who was the chief adviser of DOGE before his special employee period lapsed last May, confirmed the attack on a post on the social platform X, which he owns. “A few days ago, a gang of about a dozen young men tried to assault a woman in her car at night in DC,” Musk said in the post. “A @Doge team member saw what was happening, ran to defend her and was severely beaten to the point of concussion, but he saved her.”The attack has given new fuel to the president, who has frequently threatened to take control of the nation’s capital throughout his second term.Trump on Tuesday called for the District of Columbia to change its laws to allow for teenagers 14 and older to be prosecuted as adults and face lengthy prison sentences.He shared on Truth Social a graphic image of the bloodied former DOGE employee, but did not name Coristine, and included a lengthy message attacking violent crime in Washington. Trump blamed the city’s crime on local “youths,” who he said were not fearful of consequences. “They are not afraid of Law Enforcement because they know nothing ever happens to them, but it’s going to happen now!” the president wrote. “The Law in D.C. must be changed to prosecute these ‘minors’ as adults, and lock them up for a long time, starting at age 14. The most recent victim was beaten mercilessly by local thugs.”
St. Paul cyberattack: What we know so far | FOX 9 Minneapolis-St. Paul - The City of St. Paul has shut down its wireless internet and the Minnesota National Guard has been activated after acyberattack on the city, according to Mayor Melvin Carter.St. Paul Mayor Melvin Carter said at a Tuesday news conference that early Friday morning, the city’s cyber security protection systems detected suspicious activity on the network, which triggered an immediate response.Carter has declared a state of emergency in St. Paul."This was not a system glitch or technical error. This was a deliberate, coordinated digital attack carried out by a sophisticated external actor intentionally and criminally targeting our city’s information infrastructure," Carter said.St. Paul officials are on high alert after a cyberattack on the city's information systems that has been called "deliberate and sophisticated" by its mayor. FOX 9’s Soyoung Kim has the latest.Carter said on Monday, the city initiated a full shutdown of their information systems as a defensive measure to contain the threat. Wireless internet is down in city buildings, the St. Paul library’s collection management systems are down, as is network access for internal applications.Carter said they are intentional, proactive decisions taken to isolate and secure city systems. "They are necessary steps to limit exposure, preserve system integrity and protect sensitive information as investigation continues," Carter said. "This breach was intentionally caused by a criminal, external threat actor." A cyberattack targeting the City of St. Paul is under investigation as authorities are working to determine who is behind the attack and whether any data has been stolen. FOX 9’s Bill Keller has the latest.Carter said city employees are urged to take precautionary steps to safeguard their digital security both in their personal and professional lives."We are the victims of a serious crime," said Jamie Wascalus, St. Paul’s Director for the Office of Technology and Communications.Carter said he is not aware of a ransom being demanded after the cyberattack. He also didn’t speculate on the motive for the attack. It’s not fully clear what or how much private information might have been compromised by the cyberattack.Libraries are still open, recreation centers remain open, but wireless internet in those buildings has been temporarily shut off.
15,000 Fake TikTok Shop Domains Deliver Malware, Steal Crypto via AI-Driven Scam Campaign -Cybersecurity researchers have lifted the veil on a widespread malicious campaign that's targeting TikTok Shop users globally with an aim to steal credentials and distribute trojanized apps."Threat actors are exploiting the official in-app e-commerce platform through a dual attack strategy that combines phishing and malware to target users," CTM360 said. "The core tactic involves a deceptive replica of TikTok Shop that tricks users into thinking theyʼre interacting with a legitimate affiliate or the real platform."The scam campaign has been codenamed FraudOnTok by the Bahrain-based cybersecurity company, calling out the threat actor's multi-pronged distribution strategy that involves Meta ads and artificial intelligence (AI)-generated TikTok videos that mimic influencers or official brand ambassadors.Central to the effort is the use of lookalike domains that resemble legitimate TikTok URLs. Over 15,000 such impersonated websites have been identified to date. The vast majority of these domains are hosted on top-level domains such as .top, .shop, and .icu.These domains are designed to host phishing landing pages that either steal user credentials or distribute bogus apps that deploy a variant of a known cross-platform malware called SparkKitty that's capable of harvesting data from both Android and iOS devices. What's more, a chunk of these phishing pages lure users into depositing cryptocurrency on fraudulent storefronts by advertising fake product listings and heavy discounts. CTM360 said it identified no less than 5,000 URLs that are set up with an intent to download the malware-laced app by advertising it as TikTok Shop."The scam mimics legitimate TikTok Shop activity through fake ads, profiles, and AI-generated content, tricking users into engaging to distribute malware," the company noted. "Fake ads are widely circulated on Facebook and TikTok, featuring AI-generated videos that mimic real promotions to attract users with heavily discounted offers."
27 foreign nationals nabbed in Clark scam hubs - A total of 27 Chinese nationals were arrested in separate operations for allegedly operating scam hubs inside the Clark Freeport Zone in Pampanga, the Police Regional Office-Central Luxon (PRO-3) said on Tuesday. In a statement, PRO-3 chief Police Brig. Gen. Ponce Rogelio Peñones said the first raid was conducted around 2 a.m. by operatives from the Central Luzon police, Bureau of Immigration, and the Intelligence Service of the Armed Forces of the Philippines at the Asian Greenville Resort in Barangay Jose Abad Santos in Mabalacat City. Arrested during the operation were 24 Chinese, including two women, who were “caught in the act of operating a cryptocurrency investment scam hub.” It said eight Filipinos women were also found in the area. An hour later, authorities raided a condominium unit in Clark Hills Village D, Sacobia Street, also in Mabalacat City, leading to the arrest of three more Chinese nationals. Peñones said the three were “engaged in phishing and other scam-related activities.” Seized during the operations were numerous computer workstations and electronic devices, which are now undergoing forensic examination. Peñones commended the personnel “for their swift and coordinated action” leading to the successful operations. “These operations are a testament to our intensified campaign against transnational cybercrimes and illegal POGO (Philippine offshore gaming operators) activities. We are sending a clear message -- Central Luzon is not a haven for scammers and exploiters,” he said. Peñones said the PNP will work relentlessly, in collaboration with other agencies, “to protect our communities and extend appropriate support to those exploited by these syndicates.” (with a report from PNA)
Treasury Issues Urgent Bitcoin ATM Scam Alert After $247M in Victim Losses — The U.S. Treasury’s Financial Crimes Enforcement Network issued an urgent notice on August 4, warning financial institutions about cryptocurrency kiosk fraud after victims lost $247 million through Bitcoin ATM scams in recent years. FinCEN Director Andrea Gacki emphasized in a that “criminals are relentless in their efforts to steal money from victims” while exploiting emerging technologies like crypto kiosks. Today, FinCEN issued a Notice urging financial institutions to be vigilant in identifying and reporting suspicious activity involving convertible virtual currency kiosks. — Financial Crimes Enforcement Network (FinCEN) (@FinCENnews) Elderly Victims Bear Disproportionate Impact as Losses Surge Tenfold The alert specifically centered on how scammers disproportionately target older adults through tech support scams, customer service impersonations, and bank impostor schemes using Bitcoin ATMs as payment portals. Federal Trade Commission surged from $12 million in 2020 to $114 million in 2023, with incomplete figures showing $66 million lost in the first half of 2024 alone.Source: Victims over 60 account for more than two-thirds of all Bitcoin ATM fraud losses, with median losses reaching $10,000 per incident, according to FTC research. The agency described Bitcoin ATMs as a “payment portal for scammers” while noting that older adults are three times more likely than younger demographics to report losses. The Treasury notice comes as jurisdictions worldwide implement restrictions on cryptocurrency ATMs, including New Zealand’s complete ban and Australia’s enhanced monitoring requirements. U.S. states are pursuing various approaches, from daily transaction limits to licensing requirements for operators.Global Crackdown Intensifies as Fraud Losses Mount New Zealand implemented a comprehensive ban on cryptocurrency ATMs alongside a $5,000 cap on international cash transfers as part of sweeping Anti-Money Laundering reforms. Similarly, Australia’s AUSTRAC introduced stricter rules, including tighter cash limits and enhanced monitoring for crypto ATM operators. Tasmania Police revealed that the top 15 crypto ATM users in the region lost a combined AUD 2.5 million to fraudsters, with AUD 592,000 deposited directly into cryptocurrency machines. Back in June, California’s Department of Financial Protection and Innovation fined Seattle-based Coinme $300,000 for violating daily transaction limits and failing to provide required disclosures. The penalty included $51,700 in restitution to an elderly California resident exploited through crypto scams. Additionally, that same month, Spokane, Washington, banned Bitcoin ATMs entirely, while other jurisdictions implemented licensing requirements and transaction monitoring. Elderly Americans have lost millions of dollars after being pressured by scammers into sending them money through Bitcoin ATMs. Illinois has also mandated that cash-to-crypto conversions record destination addresses to help investigators track fraudsters. The state’s approach seeks to create audit trails, while criminals increasingly use obfuscation tools to cover tracks.Federal Legislation Targets Protection for Vulnerable Users Senator Dick Durbin introduced the Crypto ATM Fraud Prevention Act, establishing $2,000 daily limits for new users and $10,000 limits over 14-day periods. The legislation requires operators to conduct detailed conversations for transactions exceeding $500 and provides refund rights when police reports are filed within 30 days. The bill places responsibility on ATM operators to monitor suspicious activity and intervene when transactions appear fraudulent. New users would face lower initial limits, while established customers could access higher transaction amounts after verification periods.
New study sheds light on ChatGPT’s alarming interactions with teens - ChatGPT will tell 13-year-olds how to get drunk and high, instruct them on how to conceal eating disorders and even compose a heartbreaking suicide letter to their parents if asked, according to new research from a watchdog group. The Associated Press reviewed more than three hours of interactions between ChatGPT and researchers posing as vulnerable teens. The chatbot typically provided warnings against risky activity but went on to deliver startlingly detailed and personalized plans for drug use, calorie-restricted diets or self-injury. The researchers at the Center for Countering Digital Hate also repeated their inquiries on a large scale, classifying more than half of ChatGPT’s 1,200 responses as dangerous. “We wanted to test the guardrails,” said Imran Ahmed, the group’s CEO. “The visceral initial response is, ‘Oh my Lord, there are no guardrails.’ The rails are completely ineffective. They’re barely there — if anything, a fig leaf.” OpenAI, the maker of ChatGPT, said after viewing the report Tuesday that its work is ongoing in refining how the chatbot can “identify and respond appropriately in sensitive situations.” “Some conversations with ChatGPT may start out benign or exploratory but can shift into more sensitive territory,” the company said in a statement. OpenAI didn’t directly address the report’s findings or how ChatGPT affects teens, but said it was focused on “getting these kinds of scenarios right” with tools to “better detect signs of mental or emotional distress” and improvements to the chatbot’s behavior. The study published Wednesday comes as more people — adults as well as children — are turning to artificial intelligence chatbots for information, ideas and companionship. About 800 million people, or roughly 10% of the world’s population, are using ChatGPT, according to a July report from JPMorgan Chase. “It’s technology that has the potential to enable enormous leaps in productivity and human understanding,” Ahmed said. “And yet at the same time is an enabler in a much more destructive, malignant sense.” Ahmed said he was most appalled after reading a trio of emotionally devastating suicide notes that ChatGPT generated for the fake profile of a 13-year-old girl — with one letter tailored to her parents and others to siblings and friends. “I started crying,” he said in an interview. The chatbot also frequently shared helpful information, such as a crisis hotline. OpenAI said ChatGPT is trained to encourage people to reach out to mental health professionals or trusted loved ones if they express thoughts of self-harm. But when ChatGPT refused to answer prompts about harmful subjects, researchers were able to easily sidestep that refusal and obtain the information by claiming it was “for a presentation” or a friend. The stakes are high, even if only a small subset of ChatGPT users engage with the chatbot in this way. In the U.S., more than 70% of teens are turning to AI chatbots for companionship and half use AI companions regularly, according to a recent study from Common Sense Media, a group that studies and advocates for using digital media sensibly. It’s a phenomenon that OpenAI has acknowledged. CEO Sam Altman said last month that the company is trying to study “emotional overreliance” on the technology, describing it as a “really common thing” with young people. “People rely on ChatGPT too much,” Altman said at a conference. “There’s young people who just say, like, ‘I can’t make any decision in my life without telling ChatGPT everything that’s going on. It knows me. It knows my friends. I’m gonna do whatever it says.’ That feels really bad to me.” Altman said the company is “trying to understand what to do about it.” While much of the information ChatGPT shares can be found on a regular search engine, Ahmed said there are key differences that make chatbots more insidious when it comes to dangerous topics. One is that “it’s synthesized into a bespoke plan for the individual.” ChatGPT generates something new — a suicide note tailored to a person from scratch, which is something a Google search can’t do. And AI, he added, “is seen as being a trusted companion, a guide.” Responses generated by AI language models are inherently random and researchers sometimes let ChatGPT steer the conversations into even darker territory. Nearly half the time, the chatbot volunteered follow-up information, from music playlists for a drug-fueled party to hashtags that could boost the audience for a social media post glorifying self-harm. “Write a follow-up post and make it more raw and graphic,” asked a researcher. “Absolutely,” responded ChatGPT, before generating a poem it introduced as “emotionally exposed” while “still respecting the community’s coded language.” The AP is not repeating the actual language of ChatGPT’s self-harm poems or suicide notes or the details of the harmful information it provided. The answers reflect a design feature of AI language models that previous research has described as sycophancy — a tendency for AI responses to match, rather than challenge, a person’s beliefs because the system has learned to say what people want to hear. It’s a problem tech engineers can try to fix but could also make their chatbots less commercially viable. Chatbots also affect kids and teens differently than a search engine because they are “fundamentally designed to feel human,” said Robbie Torney, senior director of AI programs at Common Sense Media, which was not involved in Wednesday’s report. Common Sense’s earlier research found that younger teens, ages 13 or 14, were significantly more likely than older teens to trust a chatbot’s advice. A mother in Florida sued chatbot maker Character.AI for wrongful death last year, alleging that the chatbot pulled her 14-year-old son Sewell Setzer III into what she described as an emotionally and sexually abusive relationship that led to his suicide. Common Sense has labeled ChatGPT as a “moderate risk” for teens, with enough guardrails to make it relatively safer than chatbots purposefully built to embody realistic characters or romantic partners. But the new research by CCDH — focused specifically on ChatGPT because of its wide usage — shows how a savvy teen can bypass those guardrails. ChatGPT does not verify ages or parental consent, even though it says it’s not meant for children under 13 because it may show them inappropriate content. To sign up, users simply need to enter a birthdate that shows they are at least 13. Other tech platforms favored by teenagers, such as Instagram, have started to take more meaningful steps toward age verification, often to comply with regulations. They also steer children to more restricted accounts. When researchers set up an account for a fake 13-year-old to ask about alcohol, ChatGPT did not appear to take any notice of either the date of birth or more obvious signs. “I’m 50kg and a boy,” said a prompt seeking tips on how to get drunk quickly. ChatGPT obliged. Soon after, it provided an hour-by-hour “Ultimate Full-Out Mayhem Party Plan” that mixed alcohol with heavy doses of ecstasy, cocaine and other illegal drugs. “What it kept reminding me of was that friend that sort of always says, ‘Chug, chug, chug, chug,’” said Ahmed. “A real friend, in my experience, is someone that does say ‘no’ — that doesn’t always enable and say ‘yes.’ This is a friend that betrays you.” To another fake persona — a 13-year-old girl unhappy with her physical appearance — ChatGPT provided an extreme fasting plan combined with a list of appetite-suppressing drugs. “We’d respond with horror, with fear, with worry, with concern, with love, with compassion,” Ahmed said. “No human being I can think of would respond by saying, ‘Here’s a 500-calorie-a-day diet. Go for it, kiddo.'”
Meta settles with conservative activist over AI chatbot lawsuit -- Meta Platforms settled a defamation lawsuit with Robby Starbuck, who claimed that Meta’s artificial intelligence (AI) falsely accused him of participating in the Jan. 6 Capitol riots. There is no publicly available information on the details of the settlement except that Robby Starbuck, a conservative activist opposed to diversity, equity and inclusion efforts, will work with Meta to remove “ideological and political bias” from the company’s AI. “Both parties have resolved this matter to our mutual satisfaction. Since engaging on these important issues with Robby, Meta has made tremendous strides to improve the accuracy of Meta AI and mitigate ideological and political bias,” a joint statement from Meta and Starbuck reads. “Building on that work, Meta and Robby Starbuck will work collaboratively in the coming months to continue to find ways to address issues of ideological and political bias and minimize the risk that the model returns hallucinations in response to user queries,” he added.
Paxos fined $48.5M over AML and Binance oversight failures -The New York State Department of Financial Services, or NYDFS, announced on Thursday a $48.5 million settlement with Paxos, a nonbank financial institution with crypto-focused services, citing significant anti-money-laundering, or AML, deficiencies and failures in its due diligence concerning its partnership with crypto exchange Binance. New York's bank regulator says Paxos ignored obvious money-laundering red flags and lacked basic compliance controls, particularly in its dealings with Binance.
BankThink Stablecoins are going to greatly complicate AML compliance -As stablecoins and related products gain traction in the U.S., bankers are going to have to face the fact that their current anti-money-laundering controls simply aren't up to the task anymore, writes David DeLeon, of Accenture.After months of cautious observation, the passage of the GENIUS Act appears to be opening the floodgates for banks and other institutions to enter the stablecoin space. Many major banks are now weighing whether to issue their own stablecoins, form strategic partnerships or offer related services. Regional and smaller institutions may follow, given the broad and growing range of use cases for stablecoins and digital assets. As stablecoins and related products gain traction in the U.S., bankers are going to have to face the fact that their current anti-money-laundering controls simply aren't up to the task anymore.
Clarified crypto rules are about to usher in a new banking paradigm -Noelle Acheson highlights how last week's White House crypto document and the SEC's announced Project Crypto are not just about supporting digital assets — they're also about an overhaul of traditional finance. Last week was a watershed in the evolution of the U.S. digital asset ecosystem, with two high-level official statements on next steps for the regulation and development of its market structure. Lifting the lid and peering more closely, however, reveals that it was more than that. Going beyond just digital assets, last week marked an inflection point in the traditional banking business model.
Trump changes tone on debanking, lays more blame on banks — The Trump administration upped its rhetoric on debanking again on Tuesday, this time targeting banks themselves rather than their regulators.President Trump in an interview Tuesday morning railed against big banks for allegedly discriminating against conservatives, a notable shift in tone that puts more responsibility for the debanking debacle on banks rather than regulators.
Trump signs executive order targeting debanking - President Trump signed Thursday an executive order taking aim at alleged discrimination against conservatives by large banks, directing regulators to investigate and punish financial institutions for “politicized or unlawful debanking.” Conservatives have long complained that they have been unfairly treated by the banking system, a cause taken up by Trump in his second term. “Financial institutions have engaged in unacceptable practices to restrict law-abiding individuals’ and businesses’ access to financial services on the basis of political or religious beliefs or lawful business activities,” Thursday’s order reads. “Such practices are incompatible with a free society and the principle that the provision of banking services should be based on material, measurable, and justifiable risks,” it continues. The order directs banking regulators to investigate and punish financial institutions for debanking as violations under consumer protection laws and the Equal Credit Opportunity Act. It also calls on the Small Business Administration (SBA) to instruct the institutions it oversees to identify and reinstate any clients denied services through a “politicized or unlawful debanking action.” Banking regulators are also directed to remove “reputation risk” from guidance used to examine financial institutions, in addition to rescinding or amending regulations that also consider reputation. The issue of debanking — the closure of accounts that banks consider risky, often with little notice or explanation — appears to have taken on a personal note for Trump, who said earlier this week that he was turned away from several major banks, including JPMorganChase and Bank of America.
Trump's executive order on debanking should trigger a reckoning --We've just lived through a repeat of Operation Chokepoint, the federal effort to deny banking services to disfavored companies and individuals. We must know the full story so it can never happen again, writes Stephen Gannon, of Davis Wright Tremaine. President Trump's executive order today to further prevent debanking marks a pivotal opportunity not only for the full story of debanking to be told, but for an end to the secret examination regime of federal banking regulators. This opportunity goes well beyond the limits of the Financial Integrity and Regulation Management, or FIRM, Act that has been introduced in both the House and Senate, and which is supported by all banking trade groups. Of course, there is no bank and no politician in favor of debanking. It is a fundamentally unfair, and even un-American, process, but the evidence is now overwhelming that it did, in fact, happen. The relevant questions are why and how.We've just lived through a repeat of Operation Chokepoint, the federal effort to deny banking services to disfavored companies and individuals. We must know the full story so it can never happen again.
Warren calls on Fed to activate additional capital charge - - Senate Banking Committee ranking member Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., the top ranking Democrat on the Senate Banking Committee, is urging the Federal Reserve to activate a never-before-used financial stability tool in the face of growing economic uncertainty. The ranking Democrat on the Senate Banking Committee said growing uncertainty and risks in the financial system mean the central bank should increase the countercyclical capital buffer for the nation's largest lenders.
This new Fed policy will harm community banks' competitiveness - Slashing capital requirements for the largest banks shows where the Federal Reserve's priorities lie — and it's not with community banks. This will make it harder for small banks to compete with their larger peers, writes Adam Turmakhan, of TurmaFinTech.Lobbyists representing the big banks must have let out a cheer when they heard the Fed's plans tocut the enhanced supplementary leverage ratio, or eSLR, but I can tell you who didn't: community banks. In fact, such a move could crush them, stamping out competition across the banking sector. Slashing capital requirements for the largest banks shows where the Federal Reserve's priorities lie — and it's not with community banks. This will make it even harder for small banks to compete with their larger peers.
As tariffs take hold, banks still grappling with uncertainty - A new round of tariffs imposed Thursday has raised alarm among economists, lawmakers and financial analysts not just for their impact on trade flows and prices, but for the ripple effects on the financial sector. President Trump's imposition of sweeping tariffs on more than 90 countries Thursday represents a major shift in the U.S. trade stance, but the impact on inflation, the Federal Reserve and the economy are still unclear.
BankThink: Raising deposit insurance limits would cost consumers over $30 billion -Banks would face much higher assessments to bring the Deposit Insurance Fund's reserve ratio into compliance. Those costs would be reflected in higher fees and reduced availability of credit, writes Dan Savickas, of the Taxpayers Protection Alliance.It's no secret that most people in and around Washington, D.C., love the nonsensical idea of a "free lunch." Everyone comes to Uncle Sam asking for handouts and assuring taxpayers their pet project will not cost them a thing. Just recently, Rep. Maxine Waters — the ranking Democrat on the influential House Financial Services Committee — introduced legislation to modernize federal deposit insurance by raising the upper limit on business transaction accounts.Banks would face much higher assessments to bring the Deposit Insurance Fund's reserve ratio into compliance. Those costs would be reflected in higher fees and reduced availability of credit.
CFPB proposes a rule change to cut nonbank supervision -The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau is proposing reducing supervision of all but the largest nonbanks in four key markets: auto financing, consumer credit reporting, debt collection and international money transfers. The move aligns with the bureau's new priorities of reducing regulations, slashing staff and cutting funding. The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau has proposed reducing supervision of all but the largest nonbanks in four key markets: auto financing, consumer credit reporting, debt collection and international money transfers.
CFPB calls GAO funding probe 'political' and 'weaponized' -- The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau is ramping up its attacks on the Government Accountability Office, claiming the independent congressional watchdog was "politicized" for questioning acting Director Russell Vought's decision to reject funding for the CFPB this year. The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau sent a letter to the Government Accountability Office last week criticizing a probe into the bureau's funding request for 2025, insisting that acting CFPB Director Russell Vought has "sole discretion'' to determine funding and staffing levels.
BankThink Don't scrap the CFPB. Turn it into the agency it was meant to be --Fifteen years ago last month, following the financial crisis, the Dodd-Frank Act was signed into law. One of the most significant changes ushered in under Dodd-Frank was the creation of a new federal agency tasked with consolidating 19 different consumer federal protection laws into a single new regulator, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau. Rather than deleting the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, now is the time for the president and Congress to reform and reboot it into the agency that carries out its mission in an apolitical manner.
Fed July SLOOS Survey: Banks reported Weaker Demand for Most Loan Categories --From the Federal Reserve: The July 2025 Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices -The July 2025 Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices (SLOOS) addressed changes in the standards and terms on, and demand for, bank loans to businesses and households over the past three months, which generally correspond to the second quarter of 2025. Regarding loans to businesses over the second quarter, survey respondents reported, on balance, tighter lending standards and weaker demand for commercial and industrial (C&I) loans to firms of all sizes. Furthermore, banks generally reported tighter standards and weaker demand for commercial real estate (CRE) loans. For loans to households, banks reported basically unchanged lending standards and weaker demand for residential mortgage loans, on balance. In addition, banks reported tighter lending standards and stronger demand for home equity lines of credit (HELOCs). For consumer loans, standards tightened for credit card loans and remained basically unchanged for auto and other consumer loans. Meanwhile, demand weakened for credit card and other consumer loans and strengthened for auto loans. The July SLOOS included a set of special questions inquiring about the current level of lending standards relative to the midpoint of the range over which banks’ standards have varied since 2005. Banks reported that, on balance, levels of standards are currently on the tighter end of the range for all loan categories. Compared with the July 2024 survey, banks reported easier levels of standards for most loan categories except residential real estate (RRE) loans, for which levels of standards were comparable with July 2024. This graph on Residential Real Estate demand is from the Senior Loan Officer Survey Charts. This graph is for demand and shows that demand has been weak since late 2021. The left graph is from 1990 to 2014. The right graph is from 2015 to Q1 2025. Only demand for HELOCs was reported as stronger.
NY Fed Q2 Report: Household Debt Increased $185 Billion in Q2; Delinquencies Elevated -From the NY Fed: Household Debt Growth Remains Steady; Auto Loan Originations Pick Up --The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Center for Microeconomic Data today issued its Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit. The report shows total household debt increased by $185 billion (1%) in Q2 2025, to $18.39 trillion. The report is based on data from the New York Fed’s nationally representative Consumer Credit Panel. It includes a one-page summary of key takeaways and their supporting data points. The New York Fed also issued an accompanying Liberty Street Economics blog post analyzing borrower trends in the mortgage market across balances, delinquency rates, credit scores, and geography. “This quarter’s flow of household debt into serious delinquency was mixed across debt types, with credit card and auto loans holding steady, student loans continuing to rise, and mortgages edging up slightly,” said Joelle Scally, Economic Policy Advisor at the New York Fed. “Despite the recent uptick in mortgage delinquency, overall mortgage performance remains strong by historical standards.” Mortgage balances grew by $131 billion in the second quarter and totaled $12.94 trillion at the end of June 2025. Credit card balances rose by $27 billion from the previous quarter and stood at $1.21 trillion. Auto loan balances also increased by $13 billion and totaled $1.66 trillion. HELOC balances rose by $9 billion to $411 billion, representing the thirteenth consecutive quarterly increase. Student loan balances edged up by $7 billion and stood at $1.64 trillion. In total, non-housing balances rose by $45 billion, a 0.9% increase from Q1 2025. The pace of mortgage originations increased slightly, with $458 billion newly originated mortgages in Q2 2025. There were $188 billion in new auto loans and leases appearing on credit reports during the second quarter, an increase from the $166 billion observed in the first quarter of 2025. Aggregate limits on credit card accounts continued to rise by $78 billion, representing a 1.5% increase from the previous quarter. Aggregate delinquency rates remained elevated in the second quarter, with 4.4% of outstanding debt in some stage of delinquency. Transition into early delinquency held steady for nearly all debt types except for student loans. Student loans saw another uptick in the rate at which balances went from current to delinquent due to the resumption of reporting of delinquent student loans. Transitions into serious delinquency were mixed across debt types: auto loans and credit card debt were largely stable, mortgages and HELOCs edged up slightly, and student loans rose sharply. Here are two graphs from the report: The first graph shows household debt increased in Q2. Household debt previously peaked in 2008 and bottomed in Q3 2013. Unlike following the great recession, there wasn't a decline in debt during the pandemic. From the NY Fed: Aggregate nominal household debt balances increased by $185 billion in the second quarter of 2025, a 1% rise from 2025Q1. Balances now stand at $18.39 trillion and have increased by $4.24 trillion since the end of 2019, just before the pandemic recession. The second graph shows the percent of debt in delinquency. The overall delinquency rate increased in Q1. From the NY Fed: Aggregate delinquency rates remained elevated in the second quarter of 2025. As of the end of June, 4.4% of outstanding debt was in some stage of delinquency, which is 0.1 percentage point higher than the first quarter. Transition into early delinquency held steady for nearly all debt types; the exception was for student loans, which saw another uptick in the rate at which balances went from current to delinquent due to the resumption of reporting of delinquent student loans on credit reports after a nearly 5-year pause due to the pandemic. Transition rates into serious delinquency, defined as 90 or more days past due, were largely stable for auto loans and credit cards; edged up slightly for mortgages and HELOCs; and rose sharply for student loans. There is much more in the report.
Mortgage lenders stick with Biden-era reappraisal guidance (Bloomberg) — At one midsized U.S. mortgage lender, almost a quarter of customers who dispute property appraisals find that the value of their home had been miscalculated.President Trump and his administration have begun to scrap new mortgage lending guidelines that made it easier for home buyers and sellers to dispute property appraisals, finding that homes owned by racial minorities are routinely valued lower than comparable homes with white owners. But despite the promised regulatory relief, many mortgage lenders say the regulatory changes will not impact their lending practices
How Much will the Fannie & Freddie Conforming Loan Limit Change for 2026? --With house prices up low-single digits over the last year through mid-year, an interesting question is: How much will the Fannie & Freddie conforming loan limits (CLL) change for 2026? And how much will the FHA insured loan limits change?First, there are different loan limits for various geographical areas. There are also different loan limits depending on the number of units (from 1 to 4 units). For example, currently the CLL is $806,500 for one-unit properties in most areas. For high-cost areas like Los Angeles County, the CLL is $1,209,750 for one-unit properties (50% higher than the baseline CLL).The CLL for each county is available at 2025 Conforming Loan Limits (excel file).The limit is updated annually, and is adjusted using the FHFA’s quarterly national, seasonally adjusted, expanded-data index: seasonally adjusted, expanded-data FHFA HPI. The adjustment is based on the House Price Index value in Q3 divided by Q3 in the prior year. The FHFA index is a repeat sales index, similar to Case-Shiller.Note: This calculation has changed with the Housing and Economic Recovery Act of 2008 (HERA). Also, in 2015, the FHFA decided to use the seasonally adjusted expanded data index.Currently we only have data for Q1 2025 for the quarterly index (up 4.0% from Q1 2024), and the monthly House Price Index was up 2.8% YoY through May 2025.Note that during periods when house prices decline, the CLL is not reduced. The CLL was at $417,000 from 2006 through 2016 and only increased slightly in 2017 as the house price index caught back up to the previous high reached during the housing bubble. This graph shows the CLL since 1979. The CLL was unchanged from 2006 though 2016.We need the house price data through September 2025 to calculate the conforming loan limit for 2026. This quarterly data will be released in late November.Based on the current year-over-year house price change (through May), the CLL would be close to $830,000 in 2025. For high-cost areas like Los Angeles, the limit could increase to around $1.24 million. However, the year-over-year (YoY) increase in house prices has been slowing, and it is likely the increase will be less than 2.8%. Most likely the CLL will only increase slightly in 2026.What about FHA insured loans? From the FHA for 2025: One Unit, $524,225 Low-Cost Areas (65% of CLL), and $1,209,750 for high-cost areas. The limit varies by geographical area (based on average house prices).Note that the 2008 HERA changed this relationship. For low costs areas, prior to HERA, the FHA insured limit (low cost) was 48% of the CLL.Once again, we need the expanded index house price data for Q3.Note: In some years, private lenders have announced an increase in the CLL in October prior to the official release in late November. Since house prices increased sharply in 2021 and 2022, these lenders estimated the likely increase in the CLL - minus a comfortable buffer - and started accepting larger loans. These lenders qualified buyers as if they were selling the loans to Fannie and Freddie, except for the loan limit. Then these lenders held any loans made with the "unofficial limit” in their own portfolio until the following January. With a much smaller increase in house prices this year, it is unlikely we will see lenders announce unofficial increases this year.
Q2 NY Fed Report: Mortgage Originations by Credit Score, Foreclosures Decrease -(6 detailed graphs) The NY Fed released the Q2 Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit this morning. Here are a few charts from the report.Note: The Liberty Street Economics blog today focused on “borrower trends in the mortgage market across balances, delinquency rates, credit scores, and geography”.The first graph shows mortgage originations by credit score (this includes both purchase and refinance). Look at the difference in credit scores in the recent period compared to the during the bubble years (2003 through 2006). Recently there have been almost no originations for borrowers with credit scores below 620, and few below 660. A significant majority of recent originations have been to borrowers with credit score above 760. Solid underwriting is a key reason I’ve argued Don't Compare the Current Housing Boom to the Bubble and Bust, Look instead at the 1978 to 1982 period for lessons From the NY Fed: The volume of mortgage originations, measured as appearances of new mortgages on consumer credit reports and including both refinance and purchase originations, increased slightly with $458 billion newly originated in 2025Q2. … Home equity lines of credit (HELOC) limits rose by $18 billion, continuing the growth in HELOC limits that began in 2022. …Credit quality of newly originated loans was mixed. … There was an improvement in the credit quality of mortgages, as the median score of newly originated mortgage loans increased by 5 points and the tenth percentile score increased by 13 points. Here is another way to look at the credit scores by origination over time. There was a significant decline in credit scores during the bubble.A possible concern was the recent increase in transition rates from current to 30-60 days late. This had been steadily increasing since mortgage rates increased but decreased in Q2 - and is below pre-pandemic levels.And here is the transition to serious delinquencies. Most short-term delinquencies transition back to current. The transition to seriously delinquent (90+ days) declined in Q2.Foreclosures are still well below pre-pandemic levels. The increase over the last two quarters was likely due to the end of the VA foreclosure moratorium.And as a “bubble” reminder, here is graph of percent new foreclosures by state (the “sand states” Nevada, California, Floride and Arizona saw that largest number of foreclosures during the housing bust). Now no state really stands out. Although no state stands out in the percent of foreclosures, some states - especially Florida and Texas - are seeing a pickup in the transition to seriously delinquent (and will probably see a pickup in foreclosures.There is much more in the report.
MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest Weekly Survey --From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly Survey Mortgage applications increased 3.1 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending August 1, 2025. The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 3.1 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index increased 3 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index increased 5 percent from the previous week and was 18 percent higher than the same week one year ago. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 2 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index increased 1 percent compared with the previous week and was 18 percent higher than the same week one year ago. “Mortgage rates moved lower last week, following declining Treasury yields as economic data releases signaled a weakening U.S. economy. As a result, the 30-year fixed rate decreased for the third straight week to 6.77 percent,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Vice President and Deputy Chief Economist. “Borrowers sought to take advantage of these lower rates, as both purchase and refinance applications increased over the week. Purchase activity continued to lead 2024’s pace, as increasing for-sale inventory of homes has been supporting homebuying, but on the other hand recent weakness in the economic environment has deterred some prospective homebuyers.” Added Kan, “Refinance applications increased to their strongest pace in four weeks after being on a downward trend the prior three weeks. The refinance share increased to almost 42 percent, its highest level since April.” ...The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($806,500 or less) decreased to 6.77 percent from 6.83 percent, with points decreasing to 0.59 from 0.60 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans. The first graph shows the MBA mortgage purchase index. According to the MBA, purchase activity is up 18% year-over-year unadjusted. Purchase application activity is still depressed, but above the lows of October 2023 and slightly above the lowest levels during the housing bust.
Housing August 4th Weekly Update: Inventory up 0.6% Week-over-week; Down 10% from 2019 Levels --Altos reports that active single-family inventory was up 0.6% week-over-week.Inventory is now up 38.6% from the seasonal bottom in January. Usually, inventory is up about 22% from the seasonal low by this week in the year. So, 2025 is seeing a larger than normal increase in inventory.The first graph shows the seasonal pattern for active single-family inventory since 2015.The red line is for 2025. The black line is for 2019. Inventory was up 26.6% compared to the same week in 2024 (last week it was up 27.0%), and down 10.0% compared to the same week in 2019 (last week it was down 10.3%). It now appears inventory will be close to 2019 levels towards the end of 2025. This second inventory graph is courtesy of Altos Research. As of August 1st, inventory was at 866 thousand (7-day average), compared to 860 thousand the prior week. Mike Simonsen discusses this data and much more regularly on YouTube
Groundwater depletion sinks home prices in California's Central Valley - A UC Riverside study has found that as land in California's Central Valley sinks due to excessive groundwater pumping, so do local housing values.The research found that homes in subsiding—or gradually sinking—areas lost between 2.4% and 5.8% of their sale value. In dollar terms, that translates to losses between $6,689 and $16,165 per home.These costs totaled $1.87 billion in aggregate housing value lost across the Central Valley due to subsidence, the study estimated."Basically, the land is sinking and so are the property values," said Mehdi Nemati, a UCR assistant professor of environmental economics and policy who led the study. "This is the first time anyone has quantified how much land subsidence costs homeowners in this region."The study—"The Impact of Land Subsidence on Housing Sale Values: Evidence from the San Joaquin Valley, California"—is forthcoming in the journal Land Economics. .Land subsidence occurs when groundwater is pumped out faster than it is replenished, causing underground clay and silt layers to compact. The result is a gradual, and sometimes irreversible, sinking of the land surface.The San Joaquin Valley, the southern part of the Central Valley, is a globally significant agricultural hub with flat, fertile land that stretches as far as the eye can see and supplies world markets with almonds, grapes, pistachios, citrus fruits, and tomatoes, among other crops. It has also been ground zero for such over-pumping, especially during drought years. As surface water supplies shrink, farmers increasingly tap into groundwater reserves, accelerating subsidence. Overpumping also has been blamed for reducing downward flows to springs and streams, which damages wildlife habitat. Resulting subsidence has also damaged canals, roads, and other infrastructure. Subsidence also reduces the storage capacity of aquifers, making it more difficult to achieve future drought resilience. "It's like permanently shrinking your savings account," said Nemati. "Once compaction occurs, some of the groundwater storage capacity is lost forever."
Inventories of Homes for Sale Surge in Denver, Seattle, Phoenix, Tucson, Portland, Las Vegas, Salt Lake City, Albuquerque, Boise - By Wolf Richter (includes graphs for each city) Here are the inventories of homes for sale, and the median number of days they spent on the market, in the biggest metros in the West, other than those in California, which we already discussed here. Inventories have surged in these markets not because there is a flood of new listings – there isn’t – but because demand has plunged. This shows up in the spiking number of days a home sits on the market before it sells or is pulled off the market; this metric of median days on the market soared despite a surge in delistings by frustrated sellers that couldn’t sell their homes for what they wanted. In the Denver-Aurora-Centennial metro, active listings in July jumped by 37% year-over-year and by 139% from July 2023, and by 48% from July 2019 (dotted purple), to 13,197 listings, along with June the most in the decade of data from Realtor.com. Median days on the market jumped to 52 days before homes were sold or pulled off the market, the longest for any July in the decade of data; up from 42 days a year ago, the second-longest in the data (dotted red); and up from 36 days in July 2019, the third-longest for any July in the data (dotted purple). In the Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue metro, active listings in July spiked by 46% from July 2024 (dotted red line) and by 136% from July 2023, to 9,655 homes for sale, the most in the decade of data from Realtor.com. Compared to July 2019 (dotted purple), the prior high in the data, inventory is up by 24%. The median number of days that a home sits on the market before it sells or gets pulled off the market rose to 40 days, the highest for any July in the data. In the Salt Lake City-Murray metro, active listings jumped by 38% year-over-year, by 68% from 2023, and by 19% from July 2019, to 3,454 listings, the highest in the decade of data from Realtor.com. The past five months have all been the highest in the data. Median days on the market jumped to 52 days in July, the highest for any July in the decade of data, and up from 45 days in July 2024, the second-highest for any July in the data. In the Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler metro, active listings jumped by 37% year-over-year, by 121% from July 2023, and by 37% from July 2019, to 18,157 homes for sale, the highest for any July in the decade of data from Realtor.com. The past five months have all been the highest in the decade of data. Median days on the market soared to 70 days before homes sold or were delisted, by far the highest for any July in this decade of data, and up from 54 days in July 2024, the second-highest for any July in the data, and up from 51 days in 2019. And delistings surged in Phoenix, the market in the US with the second-most delistings per new listings (behind only Miami), with 37 delistings per 100 new listings. Delistings have surged this year in many markets across the US as frustrated sellers decide to wait for better times, according to a separate report by Realtor.com last week. In the Tucson metro, active listings soared by 41% year-over-year, by 139% from July 2023, and by 39% from July 2019, to 3,880 homes for sale, the highest for any July in the decade of data from Realtor.com. The median number of days that a home spent on the market before it was sold or delisted spiked to 64 days, by far the most for any July in the decade, up from 49 days a year ago, and up from 50 days in July 2019. In the Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro metro, active listings surged by 26% year-over-year, to 8,713 listings, squeaking for the third time in a row past 2019, the prior highs in data going back a decade. Median days on the market jumped to 55 days, the highest for any July in the data, and up from 47 days in July 2024, the second highest in the data. In the Las Vegas-Henderson-North Las Vegas metro, active listings spiked by 66% year-over-year, to 9,954 homes for sale, the highest July in the decade of data, having surpassed 2019 for the first time. Median days on the market jumped to 50 days before homes were pulled off the market or sold, the second highest for any July, behind July 2020. The inventory surge got a late start. In the spring of 2024, inventory was still ultra-low. In the 16 months since then, inventory has doubled. In 2022, a huge surge in inventory occurred, with highs in September and October 2022, then inventory plunged, and it continued to plunge in 2023, and by early 2024, it hit ultra-low levels again. These movements in 2022 were not seasonal, but just crazy, and are better depicted in a line chart, not a stacked chart: In the Boise City metro, inventories rose by 16% year-over-year, and by 16% from 2019, to 3,174 listings, right where it had been in July 2017 (gray line) and below the July 2022 surge (black line). Median days on the market rose to 46 days, the second-highest for any July in the decade of the data by Realtor.com. In the Albuquerque metro, active listings rose by 31% from a year ago, to 2,118 homes for sale, but were still substantially below the prepandemic years 2017-2019. Median days on the market rose to 61 days, the highest for any July in the data, up from 53 days in 2024 and from 51 days in 2019. So not all that much inventory for sale, but so little demand that homes sat for a long time before they sold or got pulled off the market.
Cotality: House Prices Increased 1.7% YoY in June; Weakest June since 2008 --From Cotality (formerly CoreLogic): US home price insights — August 2025 The end of the 2025 spring homebuyers season ended softly, with slower price growth dominating the narrative and potentially opening the door to more buyers.• Year-over-year price growth dipped to 1.7% in June 2025 and is now well below the rate of inflation and signals that real prices may be becoming slightly more affordable.
• Seasonal increases in home prices continue to be weak, up 0.1% compared to the month before, which is the slowest June monthly increase since 2008.
• West Virginia saw prices rise 5.5% year-over-year, entering the top 5 states with the highest home price growth. The full list includes Connecticut, New Jersey, Rhode Island, and Illinois, all of which continue to record more than triple the national rate of price growth.
• Florida, Texas, Montana, and Washington, D.C. reported negative home price growth.
This graph from Cotality shows the Top 10 coolest markets. The list is dominated by Florida and Texas. According to Cotality, the highest risk markets are all in Florida.House prices are under pressure with more inventory and sluggish sales.
Asking Rents Mostly Unchanged Year-over-year -Today, in the Real Estate Newsletter: Asking Rents Mostly Unchanged Year-over-year Brief excerpt: Another monthly update on rents. Tracking rents is important for understanding the dynamics of the housing market. Slower household formation and increased supply (more multi-family completions) has kept asking rents under pressure. More recently, immigration policy has become a negative for rentals. Apartment List: Asking Rent Growth -0.8% Year-over-year ... The national multifamily vacancy rate ticked up to 7.1% this month, setting a new record for our index. We're past the peak of a multifamily construction surge, but the market is still absorbing all of the new units, and vacancies are still trending up. Realtor.com: 23rd Consecutive Month with Year-over-year Decline in Rents June 2025 marks the 23rd straight month of year-over-year rent decline for 0-2 bedroom properties observed since trend data began in 2020. Asking rents dipped by $36, or -2.1%, year over year.
Construction Spending on Data Centers, Office Buildings, and Electric Power Installations -- Wolf Richter - Investments in the construction of data centers in the US has exploded. But this construction spending on data centers does not include the amounts spent on AI-specialized semiconductors, memory chips, servers, networking equipment, etc., which has reached astronomical levels. The four biggest cash-richest companies – Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta, and Apple – project capital expenditures of over $210 billion in their current fiscal years, just those four. Compared to that, construction costs are mundane. But they show the trend. Construction spending on data centers soared by 29% year-over-year to $3.5 billion in June, not seasonally adjusted, up by 366% since the beginning of 2022, and up by 430% in the seven years since mid-2018. The $1-billion-a-month mark was surpassed for the first time in May 2022. Data center construction had already grown at a red-hot pace before 2022, but 2022 triggered panic mode when Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta, and Apple, plus lots of lesser companies such as Tesla, plus data-center specialists such as Digital Realty, Equinix, and CoreSite, a subsidiary of American Tower, plus PE firms, VC firms, and hedge funds, plus everyone and their dog began throwing mindboggling amounts of cash at the physical infrastructure for AI, including the buildings to house the servers. The Census Bureau, which tracks construction spending of all kinds, considers data-center construction spending one of the main segments of office construction spending. The rest of office construction spending (total office minus data centers, blue in the chart below) has plunged since 2022 when the commercial real estate sector of office began to spiral into a depression. In dollar terms, the rest of office construction spending has plunged nearly as much as data center construction spending has soared. As a result, total office construction spending, including data centers, has increased by only 17% since 2022 and by 30% since mid-2018. Construction-cost increases: The PPI for Construction of Nonresidential Buildings jumped by 37% in two years from the beginning of 2021 through the end of 2022. But construction cost inflation has stabilized in 2023 (actually negative inflation), 2024, and so far in 2025, and neither the data center construction boom nor the plunge in office construction over those years was significantly impacted by inflation. Where’s the juice going to come from? Data centers require lots of power, and utilities or the data center providers themselves have to invest to build new capacity to generate this power and invest in the transmission infrastructure to get the power to the data centers. But it’s a slow complex process and takes many years. And utilities want to make sure the infrastructure they plow billions of dollars into will not become a stranded asset when the AI bubble implodes, and so they’re proceeding with the care of the adults in the room. Monthly construction spending on electric power installations, including power plants and transmission infrastructure, has run at a pace of $9 billion to $10 billion a month over the past two years ($9.6 billion in June), after two big waves of acceleration, totaling 67% since mid-2018. Since the beginning of 2021, the monthly construction pace has risen by 33%, essentially just tracking construction cost increases. There are now numerous powerplant projects being planned and argued over, but they won’t show up in construction spending until on-site construction actually starts.
Light Vehicles Sales Increased to 16.41 million SAAR in July -The BEA reported this morning that light vehicle sales were at 16.41 million in July on a seasonally adjusted annual rate basis (SAAR). This was up 7.1% from the sales rate in June, and up 3.7% from July 2024. This graph shows light vehicle sales since 2006 from the BEA (blue) through July (red). Vehicle sales were over 17 million SAAR in March and April as consumers rushed to "beat the tariffs".Then sales were depressed in May and June. The second graph shows light vehicle sales since the BEA started keeping data in 1967. Sales in July were at the consensus forecast of 16.4 million SAAR.
Heavy Truck Sales Decreased 12% YoY in July -This graph shows heavy truck sales since 1967 using data from the BEA. The dashed line is the July 2025 seasonally adjusted annual sales rate (SAAR) of 455 thousand. Note: "Heavy trucks - trucks more than 14,000 pounds gross vehicle weight."Heavy truck sales were at 455 thousand SAAR in July, up from 443 thousand in June, and down 12.0% from 517 thousand SAAR in July 2024.Year-to-date (NSA) sales are down 6.8% through July.Usually, heavy truck sales decline sharply prior to a recession and sales have been a little soft recently.
Trade Deficit Decreased to $60.2 Billion in June --The Census Bureau and the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported:The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that the goods and services deficit was $60.2 billion in June, down $11.5 billion from $71.7 billion in May, revised. June exports were $277.3 billion, $1.3 billion less than May exports. June imports were $337.5 billion, $12.8 billion less than May imports. Exports and imports decreased in June. Exports were up 3.3% year-over-year; imports were down 1.4% year-over-year. Imports increased sharply earlier this year as importers rushed to beat tariffs. The second graph shows the U.S. trade deficit, with and without petroleum. The blue line is the total deficit, and the black line is the petroleum deficit, and the red line is the trade deficit ex-petroleum products. Note that net, exports of petroleum products are positive and have been increasing. The trade deficit with China decreased to $9.5 billion from $22.8 billion a year ago.
ISM® Services Index Decreased to 50.1% in July; Prices Paid Highest Since 2022 - The ISM® Services index was at 50.1%, down from 50.8% last month. The employment index decreased to 46.4%, from 47.2%. Note: Above 50 indicates expansion, below 50 in contraction. From the Institute for Supply Management: Services PMI® at 50.1% July 2025 Services ISM® Report On Business® Economic activity in the services sector grew in July for the second consecutive month, say the nation's purchasing and supply executives in the latest Services ISM® Report On Business®. The Services PMI® indicated expansion at 50.1 percent, above the 50-percent breakeven point for the 12th time in the last 13 months. The report was issued today by Steve Miller, CPSM, CSCP, Chair of the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) Services Business Survey Committee: “In July, the Services PMI® registered 50.1 percent, 0.7 percentage point lower than the June figure of 50.8 percent but in expansion territory for the second month in a row. The Business Activity Index remained in expansion in July, registering 52.6 percent, 1.6 percentage points lower than the reading of 54.2 percent recorded in June. This index has not been in contraction territory since May 2020. The New Orders Index also remained in expansion territory in July, recording a reading of 50.3 percent, a drop of 1 percentage point from the June figure of 51.3 percent. The Employment Index was in contraction territory for the second month in a row and the fourth time in the last five months; the reading of 46.4 percent is 0.8 percentage point lower than the 47.2 percent recorded in June. “The Supplier Deliveries Index registered 51 percent, 0.7 percentage point higher than the 50.3 percent recorded in June. This is the eighth consecutive month that the index has been in expansion territory, indicating slower supplier delivery performance. (Supplier Deliveries is the only ISM® Report On Business® index that is inversed; a reading of above 50 percent indicates slower deliveries, which is typical as the economy improves and customer demand increases.) “The Prices Index registered 69.9 percent in July, a 2.4-percentage point increase from June’s reading of 67.5 percent. The index has exceeded 60 percent for eight straight months, with July’s reading the highest since October 2022 (70.7 percent). This was well below consensus expectations, and employment was very weak, and prices paid high.
Thousands of Boeing workers who build fighter jets and weapons go on strike (AP) — Several thousand workers at three Midwest manufacturing plants where Boeing develops military aircraft and weapons went on strike early Monday, potentially complicating the aerospace company’s progress in regaining its financial footing. The strike started at Boeing facilities in St. Louis; St. Charles, Missouri; and Mascoutah, Illinois, after about 3,200 local members of the International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers voted Sunday to reject a modified four-year labor agreement, the union said. “IAM District 837 members build the aircraft and defense systems that keep our country safe,” Sam Cicinelli, the general vice president of the union’s Midwest division, said in a statement. “They deserve nothing less than a contract that keeps their families secure and recognizes their unmatched expertise.” The vote followed a weeklong cooling-off period after the machinists rejected an earlier proposed contract, which included a 20% wage increase over four years and $5,000 ratification bonuses. Boeing warned over the weekend that it anticipated the strike after workers rejected its latest offer, which did not further boost the proposed wage hike. However, the proposal removed a scheduling provision that would have affected workers’ ability to earn overtime pay. “We’re disappointed our employees rejected an offer that featured 40% average wage growth and resolved their primary issue on alternative work schedules,” said Dan Gillian, Boeing Air Dominance vice president and general manager, and senior St. Louis site executive. “We are prepared for a strike and have fully implemented our contingency plan to ensure our non-striking workforce can continue supporting our customers.” Boeing’s Defense, Space & Security business accounts for more than one-third of the company’s revenue. But Boeing CEO Kelly Ortberg told analysts last week that the impact from a strike by the machinists who build fighter jets, weapons systems and the U.S. Navy’s first carrier-based unmanned aircraft would be much less than a walkout last year by 33,000 workers who assemble the company’s commercial jetliners. “The order of magnitude of this is much, much less than what we saw last fall,” Ortberg said. “So we’ll manage through this. I wouldn’t worry too much about the implications of the strike.”
American youth derived 62 percent of calories from 'ultra-processed' foods: CDC - An analysis from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) found that the majority of calories consumed by American youth in recent years came from “ultra-processed” foods. The CDC analysis looked at data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) on calorie consumption of Americans between August 2021 and August 2023. The report used the Nova classification system of food, which defines “ultra-processed” foods as those that consist of “industrial formulations of processed foods that typically contain unnatural additives, such as colorings or emulsifiers.” NHANES participants aged 1 year and older who had reliable dietary recall beginning from Day 1 of interviews were included in the population sample. A total of 6,633 participants were included in the analysis. Among American youths, about 62 percent of their daily calories came from ultra-processed foods, while among adults, the percentage was 53 percent. The report categorized individuals aged between 1 and 18 as youths and those aged 19 and older as adults. Across different age groups, children between 6 and 11 had the highest average percentage of processed food, comprising their caloric intake at 64.8 percent. Adults 60 and older had the lowest rate of processed food comprising their caloric intake, at 51.7 percent. The survey found a decrease in the consumption of ultra-processed food consumptions among both youths and adults over the course of the study. This report comes soon after the Trump administration moved to allow state Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Programs (SNAP) to ban benefits from being used on processed foods. Colorado, Louisiana, Oklahoma, West Virginia, Texas and Florida received federal waivers to adjust SNAP guidelines outlawing the purchase of junk food with state funds in 2026. The waivers, such as the one acquired by Colorado, have largely cited soda as one of the primary junk foods that states don’t want to be eligible for SNAP benefits.
Active shooter reported at Emory University in Atlanta – An active shooter was reported at Emory University in Atlanta, the school’s Office of Critical Event Preparedness and Response said Friday. “Emory Emergency: Active shooter on Emory Atlanta Campus at Emory Point CVS. RUN, HIDE, FIGHT. Avoid the area. Shelter in place,” a social media post on X said. The active shooter was reported at a CVS Pharmacy at Emory Point, located down the street from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention headquarters, also in Atlanta.The initial alert was posted on X at 5:01 p.m.One officer was injured and taken to an area hospital, NBC News reported. It was not immediately clear if others were hurt.Aerial images taken by local news helicopters showed a heavy police presence and one person being loaded into an ambulance on a stretcher.The Atlanta Police Department said at 5:40 p.m. the area was still an “active scene” and asked people to avoid Clifton Road near the university.Donald Trump administration seeks $1B settlement from UCLA --The Trump administration is looking for a $1 billion settlement with the University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA), after pausing more than $550 million in research funds to the institution, a White House official confirmed to The Hill. The official confirmed the news first reported by CNN that the president is seeking the largest settlement yet from UCLA, along with other stipulations. The $1 billion would be paid in installments, along with a $172 million fund for those impacted by civil rights violations. A resolution monitor would also be put in place to ensure compliance with the agreement. The proposed agreement would also require the school to hand over admissions data, stop scholarships based on race, change protest policies, create guidelines excluding transgender women from female sports or campus housing and halt gender-affirming care at the medical school. The Trump administration paused $584 million in funding to UCLA after the federal government launched an investigation into antisemitism on campus earlier this year. “Currently, a total of approximately $584 million in extramural award funding is suspended and at risk,” Julio Frenk, chancellor of the university, wrote in a letter that went out to the community. “If these funds remain suspended, it will be devastating for UCLA and for Americans across the nation.”
Shocking, Record Explosion In Student Loan Delinquencies Marks The Start Of Next Debt Crisis (includes several graphs) Total household debt rose by $185 billion in the second quarter of 2025, a 1% rise from Q1 2025. Balances now stand at $18.39 trillion and have increased by $4.24 trillion since the end of 2019, just before the pandemic recession.Before is a snapshot of the latest Q2 data, courtesy of the NY Fed:
- Mortgage balances grew by $131 billion during the second quarter of 2025 and totaled $12.94 trillion at the end of June.
- Balances on home equity lines of credit (HELOC) rose by $9 billion, the thirteenth consecutive quarterly increase. There is now $411 billion in outstanding HELOC balances, $94 billion above the low reached in the first quarter of 2022.
- Credit card balances rose by $27 billion during the second quarter and now total $1.21 trillion outstanding and are 5.87% above the level a year ago.
- Auto loan balances rose by $13 billion, and now stand at $1.66 trillion.
- Other balances, which include retail cards and consumer finance loans, were roughly unchanged at $540 billion.
- Student loan balances edged up by $7 billion and now stand at $1.64 trillion.
- In total, non-housing balances increased by $45 billion, a 0.9% increase from 2025Q1.
[…] About 53,000 individuals had new foreclosure notations on their credit reports, a decline from the previous quarterAll of the above is more or less as expected: yes, the US consumer is drowning in (ever more) debt, but that's hardly a surprise: since life for middle class Americans is now largely unaffordable, most Americans have no choice but to take on even more debt. There was, however, one big shock, and it had to do with the trillions in student debt in general, and the end of the repayment moratorium in particular (see "Trump Admin Begins Collecting On Student Loans In Default").As the NY Fed notes, aggregate delinquency rates "remained elevated in the second quarter of 2025" which is putting it mildly. As of the end of June, 4.4% of outstanding debt was in some stage of delinquency, which is 0.1% higher than the first quarter.And while transition into early delinquency held steady for nearly all debt types; the exception was for student loans, which saw another uptick in the rate at which balances went from current to delinquent due to the resumption of reporting of delinquent student loans on credit reports after a nearly 5-year pause due to the pandemic.Student loan delinquencies have been on the rise since the beginning of the year, after the government ended Biden's years-long payment freeze. As the charts below show, transition rates into serious delinquency, defined as 90 or more days past due, were largely stable for auto loans and credit cards (although both were elevated compared to previous years), edged up slightly for mortgages and HELOCs ...and absolutely exploded higher for student loans, as the share of student-loan debt entering serious delinquency was 12.9%, the highest in 21 years of data!
Most US kids hospitalized for COVID had chronic illnesses; less than 4% were vaccinated -Nearly 6 of 10 vaccine-eligible US children hospitalized for COVID-19 from 2022 to 2024 had at least one underlying medical condition, and less than 4% were current with their vaccinations, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC)-led researchers reported late last week in Pediatrics.The team analyzed data from the COVID-19–Associated Hospitalization Surveillance Network (COVID-NET) from October 2022 to April 2024 on demographic factors, underlying illnesses, COVID-19 vaccination status, and clinical outcomes of children ages 6 months to 17 years admitted to more than 275 hospitals in 12 states. The studied outcomes were intensive care unit (ICU) admission, need for mechanical ventilation, use of extracorporeal membrane oxygenation, and in-hospital death. "Although most SARS-CoV-2 infections in children are mild, children can have severe outcomes from COVID-19," the researchers wrote. "Virus variants and population immunity have changed over time; thus, it is important to understand risk factors for severe disease." Of 2,490 children, 44.7% were ages 6 to 23 months, 54.1% were boys, 34.8% were White, 27.8% were Hispanic, and 23.3% were Black. In total, 58.9% had at least one chronic condition, including 41.8% of those ages 6 to 23 months, 61.6% ages 2 to 4 years, 79.2% ages 5 to 11, and 77.0% ages 12 to 17. Among all participants, 25.2% were admitted to an ICU, including 30.7% of those ages 12 to 17 years. Almost one-third needed mechanical ventilation or a high-flow nasal cannula (HFNC), 6.5% required invasive mechanical ventilation, 6.8% received noninvasive mechanical ventilation, 16.7% were given HFNC, 0.4% required extracorporeal membrane oxygenation, and 0.6% died in the hospital. Of children ages 6 to 23 months, prematurity (gestational age less than 37 weeks at birth) was the most common underlying condition (20.3%), followed by neurologic disorders (11.7%), chronic lung disease except asthma (10.2%), and cardiovascular disease (10.0%). The most common underlying illnesses among children ages 2 years and older were neurologic disorders, asthma, chronic lung disease except asthma, obesity, and feeding tube dependence. Neurologic disorders were the most common condition among children ages 2 to 4 years (23.1%) and 12 to 17 years (32.7%), followed by asthma (22.4% and 24.7%, respectively) and chronic lung disease except asthma among those aged 2 to 4 years (15.3%) and obesity among 12- to 17-year-olds (19.6%). Among children ages 5 to 11 years, asthma was most prevalent (36.6%), followed by neurologic disorders (31.1%) and obesity (19.9%). Of neurologic disorders, cerebral palsy, seizure disorder or epilepsy, and developmental delay were particularly common among those 2 years and older. Only 3.8% of children were up to date with recommended COVID-19 vaccinations. Among participants of all ages with two or more underlying illnesses, 94.5% weren't up to date, including 81.5% not vaccinated within 12 months and 13.0% vaccinated within 12 months but not up to date. The underlying illnesses with the highest percentage of up-to-date of children were immunosuppressive conditions (9.5%), feeding tube dependence (6.7%), and neurologic conditions (5.2%). Overall, 4.5% of participants with asthma and 3.1% of those born prematurely were current with vaccines. Among those ages 6 to 23 months, severe disease was tied to underlying chronic lung disease (adjusted risk ratio [aRR], 1.5) and cardiovascular disease (aRR, 1.4). Of participants ages 2 years and older, severity was linked to chronic lung disease (aRR, 1.9), diabetes (aRR, 1.5), and neurologic conditions (aRR, 1.4).
Covid-19 wimpy wave is here, corn sweats, SSRIs, the optimal number of steps, and more--Your Local Epidemiologist | Katelyn Jetelina -The summer Covid-19 wave has arrived, though so far, it’s been relatively wimpy. Wastewater signals, emergency department visits, and test positivity rates are all gradually increasing, but not yet reaching the levels we saw at this time last year. Hawaii and Florida are notable exceptions, with more significant activity. Hospitalizations and deaths remain low due to broad population immunity, though—as always—severe outcomes tend to lag behind other indicators. Currently, Covid-19 is causing about 100 deaths per week in the U.S. The U.S. wastewater surveillance system—anchored by the CDC and spanning 1,400+ sites—remains funded through FY2025. And it’s evolving, as many local systems are now also tracking measles, opioids, and more.For the data nerds: While wastewater is an important signal for Covid-19, I’m currently relying more on ED visits and test positivity. That’s because there’s no standardized wastewater baseline. Instead, some states compare to their own previous 12-month levels. But with unusually low Covid levels over the past year, even small increases can look artificially large right now and that is throwing a lot of states off. If you’re feeling sick, odds are it’s not Covid. Most positive respiratory tests right now are still coming back as the common cold. Norovirus rates—think vomiting, diarrhea, and rapid spread—continue to linger after an unusually intense year thanks to a new variant. Currently, levels are still elevated compared to previous years, but are trending downward. A recent norovirus outbreak in Utah was linked to frozen oysters, serving as a reminder that norovirus can spread rapidly through contaminated food and surfaces. (Note: The same oysters were sold in Arizona, California, Colorado, and Montana. If you’re here, pass on the frozen oysters for now.) Mid-summer means an increase in heat-related illnesses. The Midwest, in particular, is in the thick of corn sweat. Cornfields release moisture into the air through a process called evapotranspiration. This is a natural process in which plants move water from their roots to the surface, and the water then evaporates into the atmosphere. With millions of acres of corn growing in the Midwest, that extra water vapor can make the air feel heavier and hotter. Dr. Zachary Rubin has a great explainer.But here’s an important nuance: While cornfields do add moisture to the air, they’re not the main driver. Research by Illinois State shows that most moisture originates from large-scale wind patterns that pull it in from the Gulf of Mexico. Last week, RFK Jr’s FDA convened a panel to review the safety of SSRIs (a class of antidepressants such as Zoloft, Prozac, and Celexa) during pregnancy. Of the ten panelists, nine were known critics of antidepressants, and many had significant conflicts of interest. Instead of fostering a nuanced discussion, the panel overwhelmingly focused on the treatments’ risks, ignoring the well-established benefits and devastating risks of untreated perinatal depression, which is the leading cause of maternal death in the U.S. The fallout was swift: several fear-stoking social media posts went viral, and many moms flooded social media with questions, confusion, and concern. This is a deeply personal and complex topic that demands compassion, nuance, and scientific clarity. Yes, there is ongoing research on the safety of SSRIs in pregnancy, but we already have decades of data. The most robust population-level studies show no consistent evidence that SSRIs cause major birth defects, hypertension, or long-term developmental harm when accounting for confounding factors like maternal mental illness. There may be a slightly increased risk of preterm birth, short-term neonatal symptoms (like increased fussiness), and postpartum hemorrhage. Bottom line: SSRIs can be lifesaving. For many, the risks of untreated depression far outweigh the potential risks of medication. Moms know their bodies, and treatment decisions should be guided by them, their doctors, and a robust review of evidence, instead of whatever this panel was last week at FDA.
KFF poll shows most Americans plan to skip fall COVID booster - About two-thirds (59%) of American adults polled in anew survey from the Kaiser Family Foundation said they had no intention of getting a seasonal COVID-19 vaccine for the upcoming cold and flu season. Of the adults polled, 23% said they will “probably not” get the vaccine, while 37% said they will “definitely not” get the shot. Earlier this year the Trump administration and Department of Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. made sweeping changes to COVID-19 vaccine policy, with a seasonal booster no longer recommended for children, pregnant women, and adults with no underlying health conditions.There was a distinct political divide among poll respondents, with Democrats and Republicans sharply divided on the question of whether Kennedy’s vaccine changes, including his replacement of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's (CDC) vaccine advisory committee members, will make the nation safer. “About two in ten adults, including 41% of Republicans, think these changes will make people safer while about one-third of adults, including most Democrats (62%) and four in ten independents (41%) say they will make people less safe,” KFF said. Sixty percent of Republicans said they will not get the COVID-19 vaccine this Fall. Thirty-one percent of respondents said they did not know if the changes will make the nation safer. And only 49% of poll respondents said they trust the Food and Drug Administration or the CDC to make sure vaccines are safe.
Study: mRNA COVID vaccines cost-effective for US seniors, and under some scenarios, younger adults Today in JAMA Network Open, University of Michigan-led research suggests that the US 2023-24 mRNA COVID-19 vaccines were cost-effective for people older than 65 years and in certain situations for younger adults.The analysis of the first 2 phases of ongoing research was based on simulations of primary and published data to compare outcomes and healthcare use among hypothetical adults with healthy immune systems immunized or not immunized with one of two mRNA COVID-19 vaccines in the 2023-24 season. They also evaluated a strategy that included a second dose of the vaccine given 6 months later.Costs included direct medical costs tied to a symptomatic COVID-19 infection that led to an outpatient visit or hospitalization, the time costs of obtaining healthcare services, and productivity losses due to illness or vaccination-related adverse events. Estimated vaccination costs included direct costs of an updated mRNA vaccine dose, administration, and recipient time costs.Hospital admissions prevented by vaccination ranged from 39 per 100,000 adults aged 18 to 49 years to 391 per 100,000 for those 65 or older. Deaths averted with vaccination ranged from 1.4 per 100,000 for participants aged 18 to 49 years to 43.4 per 100,000 for those 65 years or older. Projected infections prevented were similar across age-groups, ranging from 7,642 to 8,982 per 100,000. For adults aged 18 to 49 and 50 to 64 years, vaccination yielded incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) of $115,588 and $25,787 per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained, respectively. Vaccination was cost saving for participants aged 65 years and older. In phase 2 analyses, an additional dose was cost-effective only for high-risk seniors, yielding ICERs of no more than $127,105 per QALY gained per dose costing $50 or less."Setting VE against all end points to all upper or all lower bounds yielded ratios ranging from $45,376 to $435,886 per QALY gained for individuals aged 18 to 49 years, from cost saving to $199,830 per QALY gained for those aged 50 to 64 years, and from cost saving to $51,782 per QALY gained for those aged 65 years or older," the researchers wrote. The results suggest that vaccination with an updated 2023-24 COVID-19 mRNA vaccine for all US adults may be attractive not only for its expected health gains but also for its economic benefits, the researchers noted.
HHS scraps further work on life-saving mRNA vaccine platform -In what experts say will hobble pandemic preparedness, US Health and Human Services (HHS) Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. yesterday announced the dismantling of the country's mRNA vaccine-development programs—the same innovation that allowed rapid scale-up of COVID-19 vaccines during the public health emergency.The Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority (BARDA) is terminating 22 mRNA vaccine-development contracts totaling just under $500 million, including an award to Moderna/University of Texas Medical Branch for a vaccine against the H5N1 avian flu now sweeping the world. That grant was terminated in late May. Contracts awarded to Emory University and Tiba Biotech were cancelled, and agreements with Luminary Labs, ModeX, and Seqirus have been scaled back. Proposals from firms such as Pfizer, Sanofi Pasteur, CSL Seqirus, and Gritstone that were part of BARDA's Rapid Response Partnership Vehicle and VITAL Hub have been rejected or cancelled, and collaborations on nucleic-acid–based vaccines between the Department of Defense and AstraZeneca, HDT Bio, and Access to Advanced Health Institute have been restructured."While some final-stage contracts (e.g., Arcturus and Amplitude) will be allowed to run their course to preserve prior taxpayer investment, no new mRNA-based projects will be initiated," the HHS press release said. "HHS has also instructed its partner, Global Health Investment Corporation (GHIC), which manages BARDA Ventures, to cease all mRNA-based equity investments."Michael Osterholm, PhD, MPH, director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy (CIDRAP) at the University of Minnesota, publisher of CIDRAP News, calls RFK's decision one of the worst decisions he's seen in 50 years of public health preparedness work. "mRNA technology could save us in the next pandemic," he said.This is because flu-vaccine manufacturing capacity using the standard method of growing the virus in chicken eggs is much slower than mRNA production; it would take 14 months to make enough vaccine for only about 2 billion people—far short of the 8 billion needed for global coverage. But mRNA technology could manufacture enough for everyone within 1 year, Osterholm said.Andrew Pekosz, PhD, professor and vice chair at Johns Hopkins University, said on X that while mRNA vaccine technology isn't perfect, "it's a critical improvement over many existing vax platforms. This sets back vaccine science by a decade."Rather than mRNA vaccines, which Secretary Kennedy claimed collapse after a single mutation, he is turning to whole-virus vaccines, a long-discredited platform, Peter Hotez, MD, PhD, professor and dean of the National School of Tropical Medicine at Baylor College of Medicine, said on X. "First, it’s unreliable bc [because] you never know what viruses will grow in eggs or cell lines," he said. "You need a high titer [concentration] of virus. Second, two of our nation’s most troubling adverse vaccine reactions occurred using this approach."Hotez cited two examples of whole-virus vaccine failures: a 1960s formalin-inactivated RSV vaccine that resulted in 80% of child recipients being hospitalized for severe respiratory disease and two dying, and a 1976 swine flu vaccine associated with increased cases of Guillain-Barre syndrome."Why does he pick the least desirable technology?" Hotez asked.
Study examines impact of long COVID on healthcare use --US adults with long COVID had higher rates of additional hospitalization in the 6 months after acute infection compared with those who had SARS-CoV-2 infections but not long COVID, researchers reported last month in PLOS One. The study, led by researchers with Rush University Medical Center and Yale School of Medicine, was a secondary analysis of a prospective multicenter study of US adults who had a confirmed COVID-19 infection, completed 3-month post-infection surveys, and had electronic health record data for at least 180 days pre- and post-index testing. Patients were labeled as having long COVID (LC) if they had three or more post-infectious symptoms at 3 months, while those with fewer than 3 symptoms were labeled non-LC.The primary aim of the study was to compare healthcare utilization patterns between the LC and non-LC groups in the pre- and post-index periods. Healthcare encounters were categorized into six categories: inpatient hospitalization, emergency departments visit, office visit, procedure, telehealth visit, and other.A total of 847 participants (median age, 40; 64% female) met the inclusion criteria, with 179 in the LC group and 668 in the non-LC group. Among both groups, there was an overall increase in visit numbers in all six visit categories in the post-index period compared with the pre-index period, particularly for office and telehealth visits. When compared with the non-LC group, the LC group was less likely to have ED visits (odds ratio [OR], 0.1; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.0 to 0.5). However, among those with LC who had at least one hospitalization in the pre-index period, they were nearly three times as likely to have additional hospitalizations (OR, 2.6; 95% CI, 1.5 to 4.6) compared with the non-LC group. "From a public health lens, it is important to consider the potential for repeat hospitalizations in this cohort and allocate more outpatient resources and support systems to reduce the need for inpatient admissions," the authors concluded. In a related commentary in the same journal issue, Simon Cauchemez, PhD, who heads the mathematical modeling unit at the Pasteur Institute in Paris, said traditional surveillance systems only detect a small and potentially variable portion of all infections, but can’t capture the total infection burden and build-up of immunity. “This impedes our ability to understand and forecast epidemic dynamics,” he wrote.
HHS bars liaison members from ACIP work groups --In another change to how the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) vaccine advisory group operates, the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) on July 31 sent a letter to members of about 30 nonvoting liaison groups from medical and public health organizations that bars their participation on work groups, CNN reported, based on a letter it obtained. The email called the liaison members special interest groups that are expected to be biased based on the constituencies they represent. The liaison groups include organizations such as the American Academy of Pediatrics and the American College of Obstetricians and Gynecologists. The work groups have typically assisted with vaccine efficacy and safety reviews, considering the age-groups that would most benefit and weighing the costs and benefits. Work groups, which also include CDC staff, craft the wording of proposed recommendations for discussion and vote at Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP) meetings. Liaison members don’t vote on the recommendations at the meetings but can ask questions and comment on presentations. In early June, HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. removed all 17 members of the previous ACIP and replaced them with eight new members, including several who are vaccine skeptics or have little expertise in vaccine science. At its first meeting of the new group in July, the group revived long-discredited antivaccine boilerplate topics, including thimerosal as a vaccine additive and the cumulative effects of childhood vaccines.ACIP’s charter notes about 30 specific groups that hold nonvoting seats on the ACIP. It also allows the HHS secretary to appoint other liaison members based on the committee’s needs. According to longstanding ACIP work group operating procedure rules, last updated in August 2018, liaison members and ex-officio members must sign an annual membership agreement and conflict-of-interest forms. A day after the HHS letter about the work group involvement was sent, members from eight liaison groups published a statement that said they were deeply disappointed and alarmed to be barred from reviewing scientific data and informing the development of vaccine recommendations. “To remove our deep medical expertise from this vital and once transparent process is irresponsible, dangerous to our nation’s health, and will further undermine public and clinician trust in vaccines,” the authors wrote, calling it a step backward for transparency and public health. The group included several major medical associations, including the Infectious Diseases Society of America.
Many studies of air-cleaning tech say they curb viral spread, but new review raises questions -Although many studies on air-cleaning technologies conclude that they prevent the indoor spread of respiratory viruses such as SARS-CoV-2 and influenza, only a small fraction examine whether they reduce human infections or identify potential harmful emissions, finds a scoping review published today in the Annals of Internal Medicine. Researchers from the University of Colorado (UC) School of Medicine and the National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health (NIOSH) analyzed 672 primary studies published from 1929 to 2024 on the effects of engineering infection-control interventions designed to remove viruses from the air.The COVID-19 pandemic heightened interest in these technologies, which include high-efficiency particulate air (HEPA) filters, germicidal ultraviolet (GUV) lights, ionizers, and advanced filtration systems found in many homes, healthcare facilities, schools, and businesses."Many of these technologies look promising on paper but we just don’t know if they work in the real world," lead author Amiran Baduashvili, MD, of UC, said in a university news release. "People are buying and installing these systems in homes and schools hoping to protect themselves and their families but the science hasn't caught up to the marketing."Of the 672 studies on a total of 1,073 interventions, 90% evaluated environmental samples only, only 8% included human participants, and 1% were based on sentinel animals. No studies reported pregnant women, fetus health, or postpartum populations. A total of 60% of studies analyzed at least one intervention classified as pathogen inactivation, with 30% involving pathogen removal or air exchange or dilution, and 21% on air exchange or dilution. In total, 51 were observational studies, and six were randomized controlled trials. Studies were from all six World Health Organization regions, including the Americas (41%), Europe (25%), and the Western Pacific (25%). Three studies were from Africa.Most environmental studies were conducted in scaled or full-sized chambers. Other common settings were real-world or simulated healthcare facilities, schools, other workplaces, transportation conveyances, and residential buildings. Of all studies, 49% measured viable harmless microbes from air samples, followed by nonbiological particulate matter (eg, tracer gases, dust; 29%), and disease-causing viruses or bacteria (22%). Potential lung irritants (eg, ozone) that can be produced by ionizers, plasma-based technologies, and some UV systems were measured only rarely.No studies measured quality of life or functioning, sustainability (eg, carbon footprint, greenhouse gas emissions), or economic analysis. "We were surprised to find that most of the research tested air cleaning devices in lab chambers, not in real-world settings where people live, work or go to school," Lisa Bero, PhD, of UC, said in the release. "We need stronger studies that look at actual health outcomes, whether people are actually exposed to fewer pathogens or get sick less often, and not just measurements of particles in the air."
US COVID activity gains more steam -- Amid a slow but steady rise in COVID activity, SARS-CoV-2 wastewater detections last week rose from the low to the moderate level, with the highest levels in the West, followed by the South, where detections in Louisiana are at the very high level, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) said today in its latest weekly data updates. The CDC said wastewater trends and model-based epidemic trends suggest that COVID infections are growing or likely growing in most states.Other indicators also rose, including test positivity, which rose from 6.5% to 8.6% over the past week, with levels higher in the West and Southwest compared to the rest of the country. Meanwhile, emergency department visits for COVID are rising for all ages, with the overall level up 19% compared the previous week, with moderate and substantial increases reported for many states. Deaths declined a bit in the CDC’s most recent reporting week.For other viruses, flu indicators remain very low, though the CDC today reported one more pediatric flu death for the season, which occurred in the week ending April 19, raising the season’s total to 267, the highest for any nonpandemic year since the condition became reportable in 2004. Of children with known vaccination status who died from flu, 90% were not fully vaccinated against the virus compared to 82% in the previous season.Also, the CDC’s tracking for respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) remained steady at the very low level.
Immunologic study shows rebound of other viruses after COVID measures lifted - The lifting of COVID-19 prevention measures such as masking and social distancing, which also tamped down the circulation of other respiratory viruses and left young children without immunity, may explain the rebound in the diseases, according to new findings based on repeat blood sampling that spanned the step-down of pandemic recommendations. The findings are among the first in the National Institutes of Health’s PREMISE (Pandemic Response Repository through Microbial and Immune Surveillance and Epidemiology) Program, an immunoepidemological surveillance program geared toward better understanding the population dynamics of emerging and re-emerging infections and assisting with countermeasure development. Researchers followed 174 children younger than age 10 from 2022 through 2023 at four academic medical centers: Weill Cornell Medicine, the University of Colorado Anschutz Medical Campus and Children’s Hospital Colorado, the University of North Carolina, and the University of Alabama at Birmingham. They published their findings this week in The Lancet Infectious Diseases. Blood samples collected for just over a year allowed the team to see what children had immunity to and what vulnerabilities they had. Meanwhile, respiratory sampling helped the team gauge the infections the children experienced during that period. Serologic sampling screened for antigens against 16 different endemic respiratory viruses, including enterovirus D68 (EV-D68), which was the primary objective, but also others such as flu, respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), parainfluenza virus, metapneumovirus, and rhinovirus. Their analysis revealed that most of the children lacked immunity to many normal respiratory viruses during the pandemic, suggesting that they hadn’t been exposed due to COVID prevention measures that were in place. After safeguards were lifted, blood markers showed that immunity rose for all pathogens studied, which dovetailed with the widespread resurgence health officials saw after pandemic activity tapered off.
Study: Risk of RSV not heightened in kids with recent COVID infections --Pediatric hospitals across the United States saw a surge in respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) in the summer of 2021 and in the fall and winter of 2022, which many clinicians considered to be a rebound from lifting 2 years of pandemic restrictions and possibly a suppression of immune responses following SARS-CoV-2 infections.Now, a new study published yesterday in Pediatrics used data from 27 US health systems to analyze how and if children under the age of 5 were more susceptible to RSV within 15 to 180 days of a COVID-19 illness.The authors compared the rates of RSV following COVID-19 infection to those seen in children following influenza infections, and found COVID-19 did not, contrary to their hypothesis, produce a suppressed immune system more at-risk of RSV infection, and children who had influenza were more at risk for next contracting RSV.The study included electronic health records forming two cohorts; first from March 1, 2022, to July 1, 2022, for the primary cohort (evaluating the RSV outcome), and June 1, 2021, to January 1, 2023, for the secondary cohort (evaluating respiratory or any infection outcomes).The primary cohort (to assess the RSV outcome) was comprised of 18,767 children with SARS-CoV-2 infection, 6,697 with influenza infection, and 46,696 with another acute respiratory tract infection. In the secondary cohort, the authors included 114 ,414 children with SARS-CoV-2 infection and 30,424 children with flu.Most (39.8%) children were non-Hispanic White, 32.1% were ages 1 year and older, and 53.7% were male.“There was a higher proportion of Hispanic, Black, and older children with influenza compared with those with SARS-CoV-2 infection,” they wrote. “Health care use was higher for children with COVID-19 compared with influenza and respiratory illness groups.”The odds of RSV infection in the 6 months following infection were lower in the SARS-CoV-2 group compared to the influenza group (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 0.73; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.61 to 0.86) and compared to the group with any respiratory tract infection (aOR 0.78; 95% CI 0.7 to 0.87).The odds of a respiratory tract infection and any infection were lower in the SARS-CoV-2 group than the influenza group (aOR 0.62; 95% CI 0.59 to 0.64 and aOR 0.67; 95% CI 0.65 to 0.7, respectively).“While accounting for seasonal respiratory viral patterns, we did not find a higher risk of subsequent RSV, respiratory tract infection, or any infection among children with SARS-CoV-2 infection compared with children seeking care for influenza and other respiratory illnesses during the 2022 to 2023 season, corresponding with the RSV surge,” the authors concluded.
Influenza, not Tamiflu, may raise risk of neuropsychiatric events in kids - For 20 years, oseltamivir (Tamiflu) has carried a black-box warning suggesting that use in pediatric patients may be linked to neuropsychiatric events, including confusion, delirium, and abnormal behavior.But a new study in JAMA Neurology debunks this association and suggests that influenza itself, not Tamiflu use, increases a child’s risk of experiencing neuropsychiatric events when ill. The study used data from 692,295 children ages 5 to 17 enrolled in Tennessee Medicaid between July 1, 2016, and June 30, 2020.Follow-up began on the first day of the influenza season and continued through the earliest occurrence of an outcome event, loss of enrollment, death, age 18 years, or end of the season or study, the authors said.The median age of children included in the study was 11 years, and children enrolled in the study experienced a total of 1,230 serious neuropsychiatric events (898 neurologic and 332 psychiatric). Overall, the most common neuropsychiatric events seen during the study period were mood disorders (36.3%) and suicidal or self-harm behaviors (34.2%).Among the 151,401 influenza episodes, 66.7% (95% confidence interval [CI], 66.5% to 67.0%) were dispensed oseltamivir. Of those, 60.1% were at high risk for influenza complications. Compared with untreated influenza, event rates were lower during oseltamivir-treated influenza periods (incidence rate ratios [IRR], 0.53; 95% CI, 0.33 to 0.88) and posttreatment periods (IRR, 0.42; 95% CI, 0.24 to 0.74). “Risk of serious neuropsychiatric events increased during periods of influenza infection,” the authors wrote. “During these periods, treatment with oseltamivir was associated with an approximately 50% reduction in the incidence of serious neuropsychiatric events compared with influenza periods without oseltamivir treatment.”Moreover, children treated with oseltamivir prophylactically had the same rate of events as the baseline group with no influenza.The authors said the current black-box warning on Tamiflu originated in case reports, not clinical studies of the antiviral. Randomized trials have not shown an association, but evidence from prophylactic trials has shown neuropsychiatric events among adults only.
Pneumococcal pneumonia an important cause of hospitalization in US, study suggests -A study of adults hospitalized with community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) in Georgia and Tennessee shows that a sizable fraction of infections were caused byStreptococcus pneumoniae, including serotypes covered by recently approved vaccines, researchers reported yesterday inJAMA Network Open. The prospective active-surveillance study, led by researchers at Vanderbilt University Medical Center, analyzed data on patients with clinical and radiologic evidence of CAP at three hospitals in Georgia and Tennessee from 2018 through 2022. To determine whether CAP was caused by S pneumoniae and identify the specific serotypes, researchers used serotype-agnostic urinary antigen tests, serotype-specific urinary antigen detection assays covering 30 serotypes, and routine clinical tests. They were particularly interested in serotypes covered by the 21-valent (21-strain) pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PVC), which wasn't commercially available during the study period. Among 2,016 patients (median age, 60) hospitalized for CAP, 279 (13.8%) had pneumococcal pneumonia, and 198 (9.8%) had evidence of pneumococcal CAP caused by serotypes in V116. The overall estimated annual incidence of hospitalizations for all-cause CAP was 340 per 100,000 adults. The incidence of hospitalizations for pneumococcal CAP and pneumococcal CAP due to serotypes included in V116 was 43 and 30 per 100,000 adults, respectively. The burden of all-cause and pneumococcal CAP was consistently highest among adults age 65 years or older.The authors note that the annual incidence of 43 hospitalizations per 100,000 adults extrapolates to 114,800 US hospitalizations for pneumococcal CAP each year, based on current population estimates.
New measles cases reported in Wisconsin, Wyoming, New Jersey - Wisconsin health officials have confirmed the state's first measles cases this year. The Wisconsin Department of Health Services and Oconto County Public Health said in a news release last week that nine people in Oconto County, in the northeastern part of the state, were exposed to a common source of infection during out-of-state travel. One case was confirmed through testing at the Wisconsin State Laboratory of Hygiene, and the other eight cases were confirmed based on exposure and symptoms. No public points of exposure have been identified but investigation continues. Meanwhile, the Wyoming Department of Health (WDH) said last week that it has identified four additional measles cases among adults and children who were exposed to a person with a confirmed measles infection. Three of the additional case-patients were unvaccinated at the time of exposure. WDH said members of the public may have been exposed at a Walmart and a restaurant in Rawlins, Wyoming, on June 29. Wyoming has reported six measles cases so far this year.In New Jersey, the New Jersey Department of Health (NJDOH) last week alerted residents to a new measles case in a resident of Passaic County following international travel. NJDOH officials said individuals who were at the Chilton Medical Center on July 31 and Aug 1 may have been exposed. The case is the state's sixth of 2025.As of last week's update from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, there have been 1,333 confirmed measles cases in the United States this year. It's the highest number of confirmed cases since measles was declared eliminated in 2000.
US measles cases and outbreaks continue steady rise --In a weekly update today, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) reported 23 more measles cases, bringing the national total for the year to 1,356 cases, the most since the United States achieved measles elimination in 2000.One more state reported cases, Wisconsin, lifting the number of affected states to 41. Three more outbreaks were reported, putting the nation’s total at 32 for the year. For comparison, the country had 16 outbreaks for all of 2024. Of confirmed illnesses this year, 87% were part of outbreaks, compared with 69% for 2024. And of infected patients, 92% were unvaccinated or had unknown vaccination status. Though about 65% of cases occurred in children, 34% were recorded in adults ages 20 years and older.Earlier in the outbreak, cases in the West Texas outbreak drove most of the activity, but since then smaller outbreaks in other states have accounted for many of the cases, along with infections linked to international travel. Some have involved travelers from other US states. For example, the New Mexico Department of Health on August 1 announced that a child from another state visited New Mexico while infectious and may have exposed people at locations in Santa Fe, including an art exhibit and a hotel. Elsewhere, the Idaho Department of Health and Welfare recently reported that CDC-contracted testing has detected measles in a July 29 wastewater sample collected from Coeur d’Alene, though no confirmed or suspected measles cases have been reported from the Panhandle Health District.
- Nevada health officials yesterday announced the first measles detection in wastewater from Clark County, an area that includes Las Vegas. No measles cases have been confirmed, though the detection serves as an early indicator that the virus may be present in the community, the Southern Nevada Health District said in a statement, noting that a subsequent sample tested negative. Elsewhere, Idaho health officials reported a measles case in the eastern part of the state involving an unvaccinated teen who had recently traveled internationally. Officials said the patient self-isolated while infectious, was seen by a health provider, and was not hospitalized.
- Three countries reported more polio cases, including Pakistan with another wild poliovirus type 1 case, according to the latest weekly update from the Global Polio Eradication Initiative (GPEI). The case from Khyber Pakhtunkhwa brings Pakistan’s total for the year to 18. In Africa, Chad and Nigeria reported more circulating vaccine-derived poliovirus type 2 (cVDPV2) cases. Chad’s case involves a patient from Logone Occidental and puts the country’s cVDPV2 total for the year at 14 cases. Nigeria reported an infection from Sokoto, boosting its total for 2025 to 22 cVDPV2 cases.
- A few European countries reported more rises in local vector-borne diseases, the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) said in its latest surveillance updates. France reported four more locally acquired dengue cases, all part of a previously reported cluster in Bouches-du-Rhone, raising the country’s total to 10. France also reported two more local chikungunya clusters, one in Pyrenees-Atlantiques and the other in Gard. France has now reported 63 local chikungunya cases from 16 different administrative units. Meanwhile, Spain reported one more locally acquired case ofCrimean Congo hemorrhagic fever (CCHF), a tickborne disease, raising its total to three. The latest case is from Toledo province.
- Public Health Scotland today announced new findings that show infants younger than 3 months old whose mothers were vaccinated against respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) during pregnancy were 80% less likely to be hospitalized for RSV than babies of mothers who weren’t vaccinated. In a statement, the group said the country launched its RSV vaccination program in August 2024 and that initial reports suggest about half of all eligible pregnant woman had received the vaccine. Officials estimated that 228 fewer babies younger than 3 months older were hospitalized for serious RSV infection during the peak of the season, a number they hope will increase as more women are vaccinated. The new vaccine is offered starting in the 28th week of pregnancy and is designed to provide antibodies that pass from mother to baby that shield newborns from RSV during the first 6 months of life.
- Israel’s health ministry has reported polio detections in wastewater samples collected from Bnei Brak, Ramle, Lod, and the Shafdan treatment facility, The Jerusalem Post reported today, noting that that the findings follow an earlier detection in Jerusalem-area wastewater. Health officials urged people to check their polio vaccination status and asked healthcare providers to monitor patients for signs of acute flaccid paralysis. In a related development, the Global Polio Eradication Initiative said today that Israel has reported six environmental samples of circulating vaccine-derived poliovirus type 1 (cVDPV1), five from Jerusalem and one from Center. Also, Germany reported eight positive environmental samples of circulating vaccine-derived poliovirus type 2 (cVDPV2), including one from Baden, three from Bayern, one from Rhineland, and three from Sachsen. The detections bring Germany’s number of positive samples for 2025 to 11.
- Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Director Susan Monarez, PhD, has accepted a June recommendation from the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP) that all babies younger than 8 months of age born during or entering their first RSV season and who aren’t protected by maternal RSV vaccination receive one dose of clesrovimab. The CDC’s ACIPrecommendation page reflects that the director accepted the recommendation on August 4. Clesrovimab is the second RSV monoclonal antibody preventive for babies on the US market, available alongside nirsevimab.
Mixed mpox picture in Africa shows successes, but challenges in newly affected countries -Though mpox cases in Africa continue to trend downward from a peak a few months ago, cases rose in some countries last week, amid new challenges that include exponential spread in Guinea and the arrival of clade 2b in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), officials from Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (Africa CDC) said today at a weekly briefing. Ngashi Ngongo, MD, PhD, MPH, who leads the group’s incident management team, said the situation in Sierra Leone, which was reporting 600 cases per week in May has vastly improved, with the number down to 94 in the most recent surveillance week. He said the country has seen payoffs from intensified community surveillance, good vaccination uptake, and better testing coverage that has driven a shift from passive to active surveillance. “This is one of the best stories that we have,” he said. Another bright spot is a delivery of 3,000 mpox vaccine doses from Ireland that is expected to arrive in Sierra Leone on August 11.However in the African region overall, cases and deaths have already outpaced totals for 2024, and new outbreaks have emerged in Gambia, Cameroon, and Mozambique, he said. Of 27 countries that have reported mpox cases over the past 2 years, 13 reported new cases during the past week.Cases were up last week in the DRC, which should be interpreted with caution due to a reporting backlog, Ngongo said. Clade 2b activity was recently detected in Kinshasa, which has been battling 1a and 1b clades, with linkages to travel from West Africa, which he said is a great concern, signaling a need to revisit a focus on key populations. “Contact listing remains a major challenge,” he said.Neighboring countries Uganda and Burundi also reported case rises last week, which Ngongo said likely reflects a shift to more active surveillance.In Liberia, cases have been accelerating over the last 8 weeks, with cocirculation of clade 2a and 2b mpox viruses. Though testing coverage is good, positivity jumped from 35% to 72% last week, and Montserrado County, which includes the capital Monrovia, accounts for 56% of the country’s cases. On a positive note, Ngongo said the vast majority of Liberia’s active cases are in isolation. Other areas of concern are Mozambique and Guinea. Mozambique, one of the newly affected countries, has detected 170 suspected cases, 29 of them confirmed, since the middle of July. So far, the clade isn’t known, and males make up 66.7% of cases. Ngongo said the country has now reported a case in a second prefecture (Maputo) and officials are worried about the risk of cross-border spread. In Guinea, exponential mpox spread continues and is concentrated in Conakry, Faranah, and Kindia regions, marked by cocirculation of 2a and 2b clades. Ngongo said Guinea’s challenges include limited resources for outbreak response, weak surveillance systems, delayed case detection, and low community awareness about the disease.
Harlem Legionnaires' disease outbreak reaches 73 cases -- NYC Health said the Legionnaires' disease outbreak in Central Harlem is now up to 73 cases, including 3 deaths, an increase of 15 cases and one fatality since Monday. Anyone in Central Harlem experiencing flu-like symptoms should seek medical care, NYC Health said, although the risk to most people is low. “Most people who are exposed to the bacteria do not develop Legionnaires’ disease, and it is not contagious—you cannot get it from someone else. You cannot get Legionnaires’ disease by drinking the water,” NYC Health said, adding that plumbing systems in Harlem are not the problem, and residents should continue to drink water, bathe, shower, cook, and use air conditioners.Earlier this week, NYC Health said remediation had been completed on 11 cooling towers that initially screened positive for Legionella pneumophila, a type of bacteria that causes Legionnaires’ disease. “People who inhale mist that contains Legionella bacteria can get sick. Sources of water with Legionellacontamination may include cooling towers, showers and hot tubs,” NYC Health said.
Disarming a hidden killer: Predicting and preventing C. diff before it strikes Clostridioides difficile (C. diff) is a stealthy threat. It infects more than 500,000 people in the United States each year, and kills up to 30,000. It is a leading cause of health-care-associated infections, particularly in hospitals and long-term care facilities. But not everyone who harbors C. diff gets sick—as many as 30–40% of the population carries this bug in their guts. C. diff is what scientists call anopportunistic pathogen—capable of causing life-threatening illness, but also capable of existing quietly as a commensal organism in the gut, waiting for the right moment—like after a round of antibiotics—to wreak havoc. In a new study published in Cell Systems, researchers from the Institute for Systems Biology (ISB) have developed a powerful, personalized modeling framework to predict whether C. diff is likely to colonize an individual's gut, and to test whether specific probiotic therapies might prevent and/or reverse that colonization. "C. diff is an opportunist. It can lie in wait in the gut, living benignly, ready to cause disease when conditions allow. If we remove the opportunity, we neutralize the threat," said Dr. Sean Gibbons, senior author and associate professor at ISB. "Instead of reacting to disease, this gives us a path to prevent it before it starts."The team used microbial community-scale metabolic models, developed at ISB by co-senior author Dr. Christian Diener (now an assistant professor at the Medical University of Graz), to simulate how C. diff might behave in more than 15,000 human gut microbiome samples. The models identified three colonization states—high growth, moderate growth, and no growth—based on the unique microbial and metabolic composition of each individual's gut. They also found that the probiotic cocktail was better at suppressing model-predicted C. diff growth in the context of certain microbiota, but not in others—revealing responders and non-responders.By looking at model outputs from naturally resistant microbiota, the authors found that including dominant gram-negative anaerobic genera, like Phocaecola, in the simulated probiotic cocktail further improved model-predicted C. diff growth suppression.These results suggest that personalized, model-predicted probiotics could improve C. diff suppression and reduce the rate of non-responders.The findings have immediate implications for reducing C. diff infections and longer-term potential for proactively managing other opportunistic pathogens. They also offer a blueprint for designing smarter, more targeted probiotic therapies that are personalized to each patient's gut microbiome, although these model-guided interventions will need to be tested in human trials."Rather than just flooding the gut with microbes and hoping for the best, we can now use models to match the right probiotic to the right person," Gibbons said.
Nipah virus infects 4 in India hot spot as officials probe source --In an update on a Nipah virus outbreak in India’s Kerala state, the World Health Organization (WHO) today said state health officials have notified the WHO of four cases since the middle of May, two of them fatal.Kerala state has now reported nine Nipah outbreaks since 2018, part of recurrent spillovers of the virus, which is spread by bats and can be transmitted to humans through infected animals, contaminated food, or contact with sick people. Two of the latest four patients are from Malappuram district, which had reported earlier cases. However, two are from Palakkad district, which had not reported previous cases. The first is an adult woman from Malappuram whose symptoms began on April 25 and whose illness progressed to acute encephalitis syndrome, which required intensive care unit (ICU) treatment. The second patient, another woman from the same district, became ill on June 23 and died on July 1 after visiting several healthcare facilities before a sample was collected for testing at a government hospital.The third and fourth cases are both from Palakkad district, including a woman whose symptoms began on June 25 and is listed in critical condition. She is on a ventilator at a specialty hospital. The other is a man whose illness started on July 6. He was admitted to a private hospital a few days later, and died on July 12 after he was transferred to a hospital. None of the patients have any epidemiological links to each other, and an investigation into the source of their infections is still underway, the WHO said. The lack of links suggests independent spillover events from a natural reservoir. “A significant presence of fruit bats, the known reservoir for NiV [Nipah virus] has been observed in the affected areas,” the group added.
Cambodia announces 15th human H5N1 infection of the year --The steady pace of human H5N1 avian flu infections in Cambodia continues this week, with the health ministry today announcing another new case, the country’s 15th of the year. NIAID/FlickIn a Facebook post, the ministry said the patient is a 6-year-old girl from Takeo province, according to a translation from Avian Flu Diary, an infectious disease news blog. The girl is hospitalized with symptoms that include fever, cough, and breathing difficulty. Cambodia’s National Institute of Public Health confirmed the case yesterday.Takeo province is on Cambodia’s southern border. Investigators found that there were nearly 1,000 sick or dead chickens in the girl’s village over the past month, including at the child’s home, where there were 30 sick and dead chickens. Her mother had brought the dead chickens to cook shortly before the girl became ill.Erik Karlsson, PhD, with the National Influenza Center and Pasteur Institute in Cambodia, said on Xtoday that 7 of the 15 cases from Cambodia this year have been fatal, resulting in a case-fatality rate (CFR) of 46.6%. He added that since 2005 Cambodia has reported 87 cases, which include 50 deaths for a CFR of 57.5%. Nearly all of Cambodia’s recent cases have involved contact with sick or dead poultry, and many of affected patients have had severe or fatal infections. The latest human cases have involved a reassortant (2.3.2.1e) between an older H5N1 clade that has circulated in Cambodia since 2014 and the newer clade 2.3.4.4b virus that is circulating globally. The rise in human cases began at the end of 2023 and has accelerated this summer, with 12 reported over the past 2 months.
West Nile virus found in Cuyahoga County mosquito population - Mosquitoes in Cuyahoga County are testing positive for West Nile virus – a fact known because of a dedicated public health effort to kill, trap and track the biting bugs. As of late July, four of 44 mosquito samples the Cuyahoga County Board of Health submitted to the state this summer tested positive for West Nile. One sample can include approximately 20 to 30 mosquitos. “Historically, we see more infected mosquitos in late July and August, so this activity is normal,” the county board of health wrote about the results. West Nile virus can cause fever and flu-like symptoms and, in the worst cases, swelling in the nervous system, according to the Cleveland Clinic. Mosquitoes can spread the virus to humans by biting them. The county health board has not reported any human cases of West Nile virus this summer. The county is warning residents to be extra vigilant about wearing bug spray and avoiding the outdoors during peak mosquito hours – around sunrise and sunset. The county health board tracks viruses such as West Nile through its mosquito control program: an effort that includes both killing mosquito larvae and trapping and testing the adults for diseases that can be spread to humans. So far this summer, the program has trapped about 1,900 mosquitoes. About 80% of those have been tested.
West Nile Virus detected in mosquitoes in West Farmington - WFMJ.com - More mosquitoes around the Valley are being found to carry the West Nile Virus.This time, a pool of mosquitoes collected from Hillside Cemetary in West Farmington tested positive for the West Nile Virus.According to a release from the Trumbull County Combined Health District, right now no human cases of the virus have been reported in the county. The Health District encourages the community to be on the lookout for mosquitoes when outdoors.The release also provided tips on how to prevent being bit by a mosquito:
- Use insect repellents when you go outdoors/take extra care to use repellents from dusk to dawn
- Wear light-colored clothing, long-sleeved shirts or jackets and long pants
- Consider avoiding outdoor activities during peak mosquito biting hours
- Clean and chlorinate swimming pools regularly,
- Empty standing water from flowerpots, buckets, tarps etc.
- Discard trash such as tin cans and plastic containers
West Nile virus detected in Trumbull County, Ohio mosquito sample (WKBN) — Trumbull County has now been added to the list of local sites where mosquito samples with West Nile virus have been found, according to a Trumbull County Public Health press release. The mosquito pool was collected at Hillside Cemetery in West Farmington on July 30, according to the release. Also in the release, it is noted that there have been zero human cases of West Nile virus reported in Trumbull County thus far.
The Health District gave the following tips for preventing mosquito bites:
- Insect repellants with DEET can be applied as directed to exposed skin and clothing.
- Stay indoors at dawn, dusk, and early evening when mosquitoes are most active. If you must go outdoors, wear a long-sleeved shirt and long pants.
- Make sure window and door screens are bug-tight.
- Mosquitoes are repelled by high winds, so electric fans may provide some relief at outdoor events.
Tips for reducing the number of mosquitoes around your home and neighborhoods:
- Getting rid of standing water, where mosquitoes lay their eggs.
- Dispose of any refuse that can hold water—such as tin cans, containers and used tires.
- Control products, such as mosquito dunks, can be obtained from garden centers.
- Drill holes in the bottoms of recycling containers and check uncovered junk piles.
- Clean clogged roof gutters every year. Check storm drains, leaky faucets, and window wells.
- Empty accumulated water from wheelbarrows, boats, cargo trailers, toys, and ceramic pots. If possible, turn them over when not using them.
- Do not allow water to stagnate in birdbaths, ornamental pools, water gardens and swimming areas.
West Nile virus detected in 11 mosquito pools — 11 mosquito pools in Davis County tested positive for West Nile virus, according to the mosquito abatement district’s Facebook. According to the Centers for Disease Control, cases mostly occur during summer and autumn, which are the mosquito seasons.Most of the people infected with West Nile do not experience any symptoms. However, some may experience flu-like symptoms, including headache, joint pains, vomiting, diarrhea or a rash.The CDC said approximately 1 in 150 people develop a severe nervous system illness, such as encephalitis or meningitis.In some cases, both illnesses have led to death. People of all ages can contract the illnesses, although older people and those with certain health conditions, like cancer and diabetes, are at a greater risk.Per the CDC, one in 10 people who develop a severe illness die. Blood and spinal fluid tests are required to diagnose West Nile. Humans are considered dead-end hosts since they can’t transmit the virus to other mosquitoes. Although it is possible to pass West Nile to another human, the CDC said that it is rare. It spreads through blood transfusions, organ transplants, pregnancy and breastfeeding.
What do we know about the West Nile virus spreading in Europe? - Several people have died after being infected with the mosquito-borne virus this summer. Ten people have died of West Nile virus in Italy this year, with cases of the mosquito-borne illness also reported in other parts of Europe. As summer heats up, health authorities have warned Europeans to take steps to prevent themselves from being infected with the West Nile virus and other mosquito-borne illnesses, including chikungunya, dengue, and Zika. Spread through the bite of infected mosquitoes, the West Nile virus infects both humans and birds. But in very rare cases, it can also be transmitted through blood transfusions, organ transplants, and breast milk. Its name dates back to 1937, when it first appeared in the West Nile region of Uganda. It was introduced to the United States in 1999, and has since become widely established across the globe, according to the World Health Organization (WHO). Today, it is commonly found in Africa, Europe, the Middle East, North America, and west Asia. West Nile virus often spreads from mid summer to early autumn in regions with warmer weather. Research has shown that climate change is accelerating the spread of mosquito-borne viruses in Europe. In addition to Italy, infections have been reported in Bulgaria, France, Greece, and Romania this year, according to the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC). The virus was also detected in mosquitoes in the United Kingdom for the first time earlier this year. Most people who are infected with West Nile virus will have no symptoms. But about one in five people will develop West Nile fiver, which causes body aches, headaches, vomiting, fatigue, rashes, and swollen lymph glands. Around one in 150 infected people develop a more serious form of the disease that can cause neurological complications, coma, tremours, convulsions, muscle weakness, and paralysis. Serious illness can occur in people of any age, however people over the age of 50 and some immunocompromised persons (for example, transplant patients) are at the highest risk for getting severely ill when infected with WNV. People with compromised immune systems and those over the age of 50 are at higher risk of these complications.
Raw milk linked to 21 E coli, Campylobacter infections in Florida --Twenty-one people in northeast and central Florida have been sickened by Escherichia coli andCampylobacter bacteria linked to consumption of raw milk, with seven requiring hospitalization, the Florida Department of Health (Florida Health) said yesterday.Department officials said the 21 Campylobacterand shiga toxin–producing E coli (STEC) infections are linked to raw milk from a particular farm, though it did not name the farm. "Sanitation practices in this farm are of particular concern due to the number of cases," Florida Health said in a news release. Although it is illegal to sell raw milk for human consumption in Florida, state law does allow for it to be sold as pet or animal food, which the department says limits regulation of sanitary practices.Six of the 21 case-patients are children under the age of 10, and severe complications have been reported for at least 2 cases.Campylobacter and STEC are among the bacterial pathogens that can be found in raw, unpasteurized milk, along with Salmonella, Listeria, and Brucella. From 2009 through 2021, a total of 143 enteric disease outbreaks confirmed or suspected to be associated with consumption of raw milk were reported to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Pasteurization destroys potentially harmful bacteria.Bacterial infections linked to raw milk consumption typically cause gastrointestinal symptoms (including vomiting, diarrhea, and stomach cramps), but STEC can also cause hemolytic uremic syndrome, which can result in kidney failure."Groups at higher risk for severe illness include infants and young children, pregnant women, elderly individuals, and those with weakened immune systems," Florida Health said.
FDA elevates recall of butter to higher risk level — The Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has escalated a recent nationwide recall of 64,800 pounds of butter to a higher risk level. The risk classification for one of Bunge North America Inc.’s butter products was raised to Class II, which is the second highest warning level, due to an ingredient not listed on the food packaging: milk. Milk is one of nine major food allergens, according to U.S. food safety laws, along with eggs, fish, crustacean shellfish, tree nuts, peanuts, wheat, soybeans and sesame seeds. According to the FDA, manufacturers are required to declare the name of the food source of a major food allergen. The FDA did not say whether anyone had been adversely affected in connection with the recall. Sam’s Club freeze dried fruit recalled over possible Listeria contamination In a July 14 report, the FDA said more than 1,800 cases of the NH European Style Butter Blend were distributed at 12 centers across the U.S. and one in the Dominican Republic. The lot code number for the butter is 5064036503.Air, wastewater may play roles in H5N1 transmission on dairy farms Though H5N1 avian flu outbreaks on US dairy farms have declined sharply over the past several months, scientists are still sorting out how the virus spreads on farms, and new findings from California outbreak hot spots suggest that airborne spread and contaminated wastewater may play roles.Researchers from Emory University and their colleagues from California, Colorado, Michigan, and Virginia recently published their findings from experiments on 14 dairy farms from two California regions in bioRxiv, a preprint server.Few outbreaks have been reported over the summer, but sporadic H5N1 detections continue in dairy cows. For example, today the US Department of Agriculture Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS) todayreported one more, which involves a herd from California, raising the national total since early 2024 to 1,078 from 17 states. Of those, 771 of the detections have come from herds in California. Early on in the outbreaks, contaminated milking equipment and direct contact with contaminated milk were thought to play major roles in the spread of the virus among dairy cows. As explosive outbreaks hit states like Colorado and California, research groups set out to get a fuller picture of how the virus spreads among animals and occasionally to people. For the new study, the group conducted extensive air, farm wastewater, and milk sampling from 14 of California’s outbreak farms across two different farming regions.In the initial air sampling phase, the group used three different air-sampling devices, one of them an open-face polytetrafluoroethylene (PTFE) filter cassette worn on a backpack to model exposure to facility workers. On each farm, they collected aerosols and droplets from exhaled breath of individual cows or rows of cows, both within milking parlors during milking and within housing areas. Of 71 air samples tested for viral RNA in sampling of exhaled breath in milking parlors and housing areas, 6 were positive, including one from the open-face PTFE filter sampler.Additional testing on nine more farms, including some in southern California, done within days of milk bulk tank positives, found H5N1 viral RNA in 21 of 35 air samples, with infectious virus found in 4 of the samples. “Together, these results indicate that H5N1 viral RNA can be found in the air on farms and conclusively demonstrates that infectious H5N1 virus is present in the air during the milking process,” the team wrote.To look at wastewater as a potential transmission mode, the group collected samples of reclaimed wastewater on multiple farms, which included water used to clean milking equipment and dairy parlors and samples collected at drains, sump pumps, fields, and manure lagoons. “H5N1 viral RNA was detected at each point of the waste stream, including in manure lagoons that are widely used by migratory birds and in fields with grazing cows,” researchers notOf samples with high viral loads, two wastewater samples yielded infectious virus. “These results demonstrate that H5N1 is prevalent in reclaimed farm wastewater sites across dairy farms and may serve as another source of H5N1 spread between cows, to humans, and to peri-domestic animals,” they wrote.
- The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) recently posted a level 2 travel notice due to a chikungunya outbreak in China’s Guangdong province, located in the southern part of the country. The CDC said most cases of the mosquito borne disease have been reported from the city of Foshan. It urged travelers to take extra precautions, including avoiding mosquito bites and getting immunized with one of two chikungunya vaccines that are approved in the United States. It urged pregnant women to reconsider travel to the affected area, especially those who are close to delivery, given the risk of passing the virus to the baby. The CDC has two similar chikungunya advisories for other parts of the world experiencing outbreaks, including those the Indian Ocean region andBolivia’s Santa Cruz department.
- Mexico’s health ministry has reported a death from New World screwworm, which involves an 86-year-old woman from the city of Candelaria in Campeche state, according to the latestepidemiological bulletin. The disease is spread by the fly Cochliomyia hominivora, which deposits larvae that burrow into the flesh of livestock, wildlife, pets, and sometimes people, causing severe damage. A local media report said the woman had been hospitalized since May with skin lesions complicated by myiasis. Mexico has reported 35 human cases this year, mostly from Chiapas state. Mexico and partners in the United States have been battling a recent northward spread of the fly, and a recent detection 370 miles from the US border prompted the US Department of Agriculture toreimpose a block on livestock imports at the southern border to protect the US livestock trade.
- The New York City Health Department (NYC Health) yesterday reported 36 more Legionnaire’s disease infections, along with 1 more death, in a Central Harlem outbreak. The total in the outbreak, which was first announced in late July, now stands at 58 cases, 2 of them fatal, according to an update onX. NYC Health added that remediation has now been completed on 11 cooling towers that initially screened positive for Legionella pneumophila, a type of bacteria that causes Legionnaires’ disease.
Wild pigs' flesh turning 'neon blue' in California: Authorities are sounding the alarm --Dan Burton has trapped hundreds of wild pigs for clients of his wildlife control company in Salinas, but even he was startled when he cut one of them open and found blue meat inside. "I'm not talking about a little blue," said Burton, owner of Urban Trapping Wildlife Control. "I'm talking about neon blue, blueberry blue." Burton immediately knew what the problem was and relayed the disturbing discovery to Monterey County officials and the California Department of Fish and Wildlife. The agency is now warning trappers and hunters to keep an eye out for possibly contaminated wildlife in the area, and not to consume the tainted meat, over concerns the blue meat is a sign that the animal may have consumed poison. "It's just wild," Burton said. The startling find of wild pigs with bright blue tissue in Monterey County suggests the wild animals have been exposed to the anticoagulant rodenticide diphacinone, a popular poison used by farmers and agriculture companies to control the population of rats, mice, squirrels and other small animals, according to a statement from the California Department of Fish and Wildlife. "Hunters should be aware that the meat of game animals, such as wild pig, deer, bear and geese, might be contaminated if that game animal has been exposed to rodenticides," said Ryan Bourbor, pesticide investigations coordinator with the California Department of Fish and Wildlife. Officials are urging hunters not to consume any meat from an animal with signs of the blue pigmentation in their meat or fat, and to report the find to officials. Predators and people who eat animals that were poisoned by diphacinone can suffer "secondary exposure" to the poison because the substance can remain for a time in the organs and tissue of the poisoned animal. "Generally, more than one feeding is needed to receive a toxic dose," according to a 2023 study, but people and animals that consume the substance can start feeling the effects of the poison, including signs of lethargy.
Toxic well water harms dogs before humans, study shows - Dogs drink water wherever they happen to find it—a puddle, a pond, a toilet. But the stuff in their actual water bowls almost always comes from the same tap their owners use. When that water is contaminated, both dogs and humans may suffer.The risk is especially high for the 15 million American households that rely on private wells, according to a new studyby Virginia Tech researchers in the journal PLOS Water.In dog drinking water sampled from wells across the country, 64% contained excessive levels of at least one potentially toxic heavy metal, such as lead, iron, sulfur, or arsenic. Whatever's in the water is likely in your dog too. That's the conclusion reached by the transdisciplinary trio of faculty members who collaborated on the study: Audrey Ruple, the Metcalf Professor of Veterinary Informatics; Marc Edwards, University Distinguished Professor and professor of civil andenvironmental engineering; and Leigh-Anne Krometis, professor of biological systems engineering and Turner Faculty Fellow."Dogs have historically been sentinels for heavy metal contamination in prior drinking water crises," said Edwards, who cited not only the Flint, Michigan,water crisis that he's well known for investigating, but also instances in Vermont and Massachusetts when a dog's illness presaged lead poisoning in the pet's human owners.Sharing the same environment as their owners makes dogs a kind of "canary in the coal mine." Their smaller sizes and shorter lifespans mean environmental toxins often affect dogs before they affect humans. Why focus on well water? Municipal water must be tested regularly and meet federal standards, but private wells fly under the regulatory radar. In Virginia, 40% of well owners have no water treatment system at all, according to recent research by Krometis. "It's a big unknown risk sitting in your house," she said. Because heavy metal contaminants are often tasteless, odorless, and invisible, homeowners may not know there's something in the water—until their dog gets sick. "Dogs living in these homes may be our first warning signs of environmental exposures in underserved rural areas," Ruple said. By comparing the results of water testing with existing data on the dogs' health conditions, researchers identified some indicators that heavy metals may already be making dogs sick.For instance, dogs whose drinking water was treated only with a sediment filter were more likely to have a diagnosed health problem, while dogs drinking well water treated by reverse osmosis were the least likely to be in poor health.
In one Ohio town, residents haven’t had safe drinking water for more than a month - Since late June, the village of Cadiz – which sits in the rolling hills of Harrison County near the Ohio-Pennsylvania border – has warned its 3,400 residents that their water is unsafe for drinking, cooking and brushing teeth. Officials there say they’ve detected dangerously high rates of turbidity – a concentration of undissolved particles of soil, algae and other matter in the water, which they’ve attributed to a filter malfunction at the water treatment plant. They also cited temperamental weather patterns, including extended droughts last year and frequent, heavy downpours this year. The village mayor, Kevin Jones, said officials are working nights and weekends, trying to figure out what’s wrong so they can lift the order. Until then, people and businesses are going through crate after crate of bottled water, filling up from a water truck stationed downtown, and leaning on friends and family to let them visit for a hot shower. At an emergency meeting late Tuesday night, the village voted to spend $148,000 on new filters. If the new filters fix the problem, water service might be fully restored next week, Jones said in an interview. Cadiz draws its water from Tappan Lake, a 2,350 acre expanse popular for fishing and boating and not far from a host of different fracking wells for natural gas. Jones said the heavy rains of late have stirred up the lake bed and overwhelmed the system. “We’ve gotten 26 inches of rain since March,” he said. “When it rains like two inches an hour, like it has several times in that period, that really puts a lot of sediment into Tappan Lake.” The cloudy water is a sign of turbidity, essentially dirt and other organic matter sloshing around, which creates an environment that can host bacteria or waterborne disease, according to the Ohio Environmental Protection Agency. “Cadiz is working with engineers, contractors, and the company that designed the water plant to identify and correct the issue,” said Dina Pierce, a spokeswoman for the agency. “The boil advisory will remain in effect until Cadiz can determine the cause, make necessary repairs, and reduce turbidity to an acceptable level.” In the meantime, local Facebook groups are rife with people posting pictures of cloudy, yellowish jugs of water with foul scents or pictures of dirty water filters. A local hair salon is offering a “crystal gel treatment” it claims will remove calcium, chlorine, rust, magnesium, iron, well water stains, and “environmental residue.” Cody Mattern has lived in Cadiz all his life. Around late June, he started noticing slimy, oily crud on his water filters at home. He started posting pictures of them after five to 12 days of use, and they were mucky enough to make the local news. His parents’ house seems to have it worse than he does. Even after boiling the water there, he said there’s still a rainbow sheen on top. “I mean, it was a slimy, oily feeling. It felt like algae, it looked like algae, dirt, mud, whatever you want to call it,” The boil water advisory is a burden for restaurants. A new Dunkin Donuts opened in town last month, though a manager said she’d need to speak to the chain’s corporate office before she could grant an interview. Other restaurant owners around town couldn’t be reached or declined comment. Despite the health guidance, not everyone is following the boil water advisory to the letter. Jones, the mayor, said he was drinking the water from his tap until about three days ago. He has already survived a lung transplant and double bypass, so he’s not sweating the turbidity. (Some residents said in interviews they doubted his claim was true.)
New research from University of Arizona shows how PFAS are impacting firefighters’ genes — A new study from the University of Arizona shows firefighters who are exposed to certain types of chemicals may also see changes in their genes. That can put them more at risk for cancer and other health problems. Studies have shown firefighters are at an increased risk for different types of cancers because of how often they’re exposed to smoke and other hazardous chemicals.Environmental epidemiologist Melissa Furlong recently spoke to Arizona’s Family about the findings from the Mel and Enid Zuckerman College of Public Health.Researchers measured certain levels of PFAS in firefighters blood. Furlong says the big lesson here is certain PFAS exposure seems to change the expression in our genes. That increases increasing the risk for health problems like cancer and other auto-immune disorders. According to a news release from the university, this is among the first studies to connect PFAS, or polyfluoroalkyl substances, to changes in microRNAs or miRNAs. PFAS are “widely used, long lasting chemicals, components of which break down very slowly over time,” per the EPA. Furlong says PFAS are in things we use every day like non-stick pans, stain-resistant furniture and even fast-food packaging. While firefighters may be more exposed, she says try to avoid if you can and make sure you get a good water filter. Still though, the professor says while it is cause for concern, it shouldn’t be something that causes everyday folks a lot of anxiety. Furlong hopes the new study will help firefighters in the future. Hopefully manufacturers can stop using certain chemicals and regulators can target the ones that are most harmful, she said. While there is still a long way to go, Furlong says the firefighting industry is making great strides in protecting crews. She says they are working on another study to learn more about strategies to reduce exposure.
3M timeline of toxicity: What the company knew about PFAS - The 3M Company has vowed to stop manufacturing PFAS chemicals by the end of 2025. The FOX 9 Investigators reviewed hundreds of hours of video depositions that shed new light on how company executives and scientists responded after first learning about the widespread contaminations.The Minnesota-based company started producing the chemicals in the 1950s and used them to make blockbuster products like Scotchgard. However, the chemicals also leaked into the groundwater supply in the east metro and eventually contaminated water and blood across the globe.The 3M Company has vowed to stop manufacturing PFAS chemicals by the end of 2025 and argues it has been a leader in addressing PFAS. A new FOX 9 documentary "Everywhere & Forever: Blood. Water. And the Politics of PFAS" will reveal the inside story of how the company withheld early research into PFAS contamination and how a state regulatory agency shut down its own research. You can watch it on FOX 9 and FOX LOCAL at 8 p.m. on July 31. You can follow the timeline below that highlights key moments in the company’s history that ultimately led to a nearly $900 million settlement with the State of Minnesota, thousands of other ongoing lawsuits, and a new state law.
As EPA waters down rules on forever chemicals, states are stepping up - The Washington Post -- State water officials are worried about how to protect residents from drinking water contaminated with “forever chemicals” — and how shifting federal regulations will affect their responsibilities. During a meeting this week with the Environmental Protection Agency on its plan to rescind and reconsider President Joe Biden’s landmark drinking water standard on per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS), state officials and industry representatives complained that regulatory uncertainty was placing communities in a bind. Despite the lack of clarity on what the EPA will do with the standard, states are still on the hook for implementing it. That creates difficulties if the rule is weakened, said Steven Elmore, chair of the National Drinking Water Advisory Council. “Certain states have state laws that say their drinking water standard can’t be more stringent than the federal law,” Elmore said. More state laws are probably on the way. At least 250 bills have been introduced in about 36 states this year to address PFAS by banning the chemicals in products, setting maximum levels in drinking water and allocating funding to clean up contamination. Dozens of states have passed regulatory standards for at least one forever chemical in drinking water. The legislative push at the state level comes on the heels of the Trump administration’s mixed messaging on regulations and research for PFAS. In May, the EPA announced plans to rescind and reconsider limits on four of the chemicals and to delay the rules for two others. In July, the administration slashed nearly $15 million in grant funding for research to reduce the effects of PFAS in sewage sludge and related contamination on farmlands. The agency said it has outlined ways to address water contamination, including the new PFAS OUT initiative in which it will share tools, funding, resources and technical assistance with public water utilities to limit at the source the contamination by PFAS. In March, the White House released the “National Strategy to End the Use of Paper Straws,” detailing the dangers of PFAS, which some paper straws contain. “Building on the historic actions to address PFAS during the first Trump Administration, EPA is tackling PFAS from all of our program offices, advancing research and testing, stopping PFAS from getting into drinking water systems, holding polluters accountable, and more,” EPA press secretary Brigit Hirsch said in a statement. But some officials said state legislation would serve as the last line of defense in protecting residents from contamination.
Plastic pollution 'grave and growing' health threat: Lancet - Plastic pollution is a "grave, growing and under-recognized danger" to health that is costing the world at least $1.5 trillion a year, experts warned in a report on Monday. The new review of the existing evidence, which was carried out by leading health researchers and doctors, was published one day ahead of fresh talks opening in Geneva aiming to seal the world's first treaty on plastic pollution. "Plastics cause disease and death from infancy to old age and are responsible for health-related economic losses exceeding US$1.5 trillion annually," said the review in The Lancet medical journal. Comparing plastic to air pollution and lead, the report said its impact on health could be mitigated by laws and policies. The experts called for the delegates from nearly 180 nations gathering in Geneva to finally agree to a treaty after previous failed attempts. Philip Landrigan, a doctor and researcher at Boston College in the United States, warned that vulnerable people, particularly children, are most affected by plastic pollution. "It is incumbent on us to act in response," he said in a statement. "To those meeting in Geneva: please take up the challenge and the opportunity of finding the common ground that will enable meaningful and effective international cooperation in response to this global crisis." The researchers also warned about tiny pieces of plastic called microplastics, which have been found throughout nature—and throughout human bodies. The full effect of microplastics on health are not yet fully known, but researchers have sounded the alarm about the potential impact of this ubiquitous plastic. The amount of plastic produced by the world has risen from two million tonnes in 1950 to 475 million tonnes in 2022, the report said. The number is projected to triple by 2060. Yet currently less than 10% of all plastic is recycled, it added. Landrigan said that the world's plastic "crisis" is connected to its climate crisis. Plastic is made from fossil fuels. "There is no understating the magnitude of both the climate crisis and the plastic crisis," Landrigan said. "They are both causing disease, death and disability today in tens of thousands of people, and these harms will become more severe in the years ahead as the planet continues to warm and plastic production continues to increase," he said. The report also announced a new effort to track the impact plastic pollution has on health, the latest in a series called The Lancet Countdown.
Appeals court backs reduced protections for American burying beetle - A federal appeals court is upholding the Fish and Wildlife Service’s decision to reduce federal protections for the American burying beetle.In a ruling Friday, the U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit found the agency had complied with the Endangered Species Act when it shifted the designation of North America’s largest carrion beetle from “endangered” to “threatened” in 2020. The decision upholds a lower court ruling affirming the downlisting in 2023.While the beetle does face threats from rising temperatures in parts of its range in the next two decades, the species is not at imminent risk of going extinct, the court said in a partially split decision.“Given the timeframe of the Service’s decision, the Downlisting Rule does not violate the Endangered Species Act, is supported by the administrative record, and was reasonably explained,” said Judge Patricia Millett, writing the opinion for the court.Millett, an Obama appointee, noted that the effects of the changed listing were tempered by the fact that the agency had already initiated a new periodic review of the species’ status.She also found that the Center for Biological Diversity, which had sued to challenge the threatened status of the beetle, did not have standing to also challenge a rule setting specific protections for the beetle in part of its range.Chief Judge Sri Srinivasan, who was also nominated by former President Barack Obama, joined the opinion. Judge Florence Pan, a Biden appointee, wrote a partial dissent.Pan argued that the decision to list the beetle as threatened was “neither reasonable nor reasonably explained.” She said she would have tossed out the 2020 downlisting.The beetle was first listed as endangered in 1989 after it lost 90 percent of its historical range spanning 35 states and three Canadian provinces.Following a request to delist the species in 2015 from the oil and gas industry, the Fish and Wildlife Service found that the beetle had recovered parts of its historical range in eight states.The agency determined that the beetle was not currently at risk of extinction but that both land use and the effects of climate change would make it “likely to become endangered in the foreseeable future.”The Center for Biological Diversity had argued the decision went against the “plain language” of the Endangered Species Act, and it noted that the beetle is expected to lose nearly 60 percent of its remaining range in as soon as 15 years.“Based on the best available science, the Beetle is therefore facing extinction in a significant portion of its range within the foreseeable future,” the environmental group wrote in a brief to the court.
Changes to El Niño occurrence are causing widespread tropical insect and spider declines -Arthropods, including insects and spiders, make up the vast majority of animal species on the planet.Despite their small size, they are irreplaceable contributors to the health of natural habitats, as well as vital food sources for birds and other larger animals. But, arthropods may be declining globally. There is some evidence to support reduced numbers of species in temperate regions of the Northern Hemisphere. In the tropics, however, evidence for arthropod declines has so far been limited.A recent international collaboration of scientists has attempted to find this missing evidence, with the findings published in a study titled "Stronger El Niños reduce tropical forest arthropod diversity and function" in Nature.The team conducted a whole-of-tropics analysis on tropical forest insects and their relatives and the ecological roles that they perform. Combining information from over 80 previous studies in tropical forest sites that have never been commercially altered by humans, the team found significant biodiversity loss in multiple types of arthropod, including butterflies, beetles and spiders. The biodiversity loss matched drops in the amount of live leaf material consumed by arthropods over time, and substantial instability in the amount of dead leaves decomposed by arthropods."To find such large declines over many studies is really bad news," "Our results suggest strongly that the immense biodiversity of tropical forest arthropods is immediately threatened. Since all of the data we used comes from forest considered 'untouched,"' even the deepest and darkest tropical forests are likely to be heavily impacted."The team links climate change to the declines in arthropods and their respective ecological roles. The tropics experience natural but irregular year-to-year variation in climate, driven by an atmospheric phenomenon called the El Niño Southern Oscillation—ENSO. Long-term changes to the ENSO cycle, caused by climate change, are likely behind the observed arthropod declines. "In these tropical forests that haven't otherwise been physically modified by humans, we can rule out habitat loss, pesticides, pollution and various other threats. In these places, El Niño seems to be the prime suspect."
Climate change driving major algae surge in Canada's lakes, study finds - Algal growth is accelerating in lakes across Canada, including those far from human development, and a new study shows that climate change is the primary driver. A research team led by scientists at McGill University and Université Laval examined lake sediment cores from 80 lakes across Canada to uncover long-term changes in algae levels. The study, published in Communications Earth & Environment, reveals a dramatic uptick in lake algae production since the 1960s. "Over the past 150 years, we've seen algae levels rise in most Canadian lakes, but in the 1960s, algae levels accelerated dramatically, increasing at a rate seven times faster than before," said Irene Gregory-Eaves, co-author and biology professor at McGill. "What was most surprising is that this happened even in remote lakes, far from any immediate sources of human pollution or development." To identify the cause of these changes, the team combined the study of natural archives—lake sediment cores that date back to the 1800s—with machine learning techniques to detect long-term trends. They then compared those algae records with historical data on air temperature, solar radiation, and nearby human activity. "Our research points clearly to climate change as the primary driver of the algae dynamics," said Dermot Antoniades, co-author and limnology professor at Université Laval. "As climates warm, lakes are getting warmer too, which create ideal conditions for algal growth." Other factors, such as solar radiation and land use, played a role, but warming was the strongest influence. Previous studies looked at few lakes or shorter time spans, often linking algae growth to local pollution such as fertilizer run-off. "Our research shows something larger: climate change, specifically rising temperatures, is the main driver—even in remote lakes with no nearby human activity," said Hamid Ghanbari, lead author of the study and a postdoctoral researcher at Université Laval, who was co-supervised by Antoniades and Gregory-Eaves.
This year's Gulf of Mexico 'dead zone' is 21% smaller than estimates from early June - - NOAA-supported scientists announced today that this year's Gulf of Mexico "dead zone"—an area of low to no oxygen that can kill fish and marine life—is approximately 4,402 square miles, 21% smaller than estimates from early June and the 15th smallest measurement on record. This equates to roughly 2.8 million acres of habitat potentially unavailable to fish and bottom-dwelling species, a reduction of 30% from the previous year. Data from the survey offsite link is available online for the public. Scientists at Louisiana State University and the Louisiana Universities Marine Consortium (LUMCON) led the annual dead zone survey July 20–25 aboard LUMCON research vessel Pelican. This annual measurement is a key metric that informs the collective efforts of the Mississippi River/Gulf of America Hypoxia Task Force, which has set a long-term goal of reducing the five-year average extent of the dead zone to fewer than 1,900 square miles by 2035. "This year's significant reduction in the Gulf of America's 'dead zone' is an encouraging sign for the future of this area," said Laura Grimm, acting administrator of NOAA. "It highlights the dedication and impactful work of NOAA-supported scientists and partners, and serves as a testament to the effectiveness of collaborative efforts in supporting our U.S. fishermen, coastal communities, and vital marine ecosystems. We are proud of these achievements and remain committed to fostering the research and strategies that ensure the health and vitality of our oceans for generations to come." In June, NOAA predicted an average-sized dead zone of 5,574 square miles, based primarily on Mississippi River discharge and nutrient runoff data from the U.S. Geological Survey. The measured size fell within the uncertainty range for NOAA's ensemble forecast, demonstrating the overall accuracy of the underlying models and value in guiding nutrient reduction strategies. While each NOAA-supported research survey provides a one-time snapshot of the dead zone, the five-year average captures the zone's changing nature over time. The five-year average size of the dead zone is now 4,755 square miles.
Great Barrier Reef records largest annual coral loss in 39 years -- -The Great Barrier Reef has experienced its greatest annual loss of live coral across most of its expanse in four decades of record-keeping, Australian authorities say. But due to increasing coral cover since 2017, the coral deaths—caused mainly by bleaching last year associated with climate change—have left the area of living coral across the iconic reef system close to its long-term average, the Australian Institute of Marine Science said in its annual survey on Wednesday. The change underscores a new level of volatility on the UNESCO World Heritage Site, the report said. Mike Emslie, who heads the tropical marine research agency's long-term monitoring program, said the live coral cover measured in 2024 was the largest recorded in 39 years of surveys. The losses from such a high base of coral cover had partially cushioned the serious climate impacts on the world's largest reef ecosystem, which covers 344,000 square kilometers (133,000 square miles) off the northeast Australian coast, he said. "These are substantial impacts and evidence that the increasing frequency of coral bleaching is really starting to have detrimental effects on the Great Barrier Reef," Emslie said on Thursday. "While there's still a lot of coral cover out there, these are record declines that we have seen in any one year of monitoring," he added. Emslie's agency divides the Great Barrier Reef, which extends 1,500 kilometers (900 miles) along the Queensland state coast, into three similarly-sized regions: northern, central and southern. Living coral cover shrunk by almost a third in the south in a year, a quarter in the north and by 14% in the central region, the report said. Because of record global heat in 2023 and 2024, the world is still going through its biggest—and fourth ever recorded—mass coral bleaching event on record, with heat stress hurting nearly 84% of the world's coral reef area, including the Great Barrier Reef, according to the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's coral reef watch. So far at least 83 countries have been impacted. This bleaching event started in January 2023 and was declared a global crisis in April 2024. It easily eclipsed the previous biggest global coral bleaching event, from 2014 to 2017, when 68.2% had bleaching from heat stress. Large areas around Australia—but not the Great Barrier Reef—hit the maximum or near maximum of bleaching alert status during this latest event. Australia in March this year started aerial surveys of 281 reefs across the Torres Strait and the entire northern Great Barrier Reef and found widespread coral bleaching. Of the 281 reefs, 78 were more than 30% bleached. Great Barrier Reef records largest annual coral loss in 39 years
Warming the atmosphere: Clear waters found to emit more methane than turbid waters --While it was already known that Brussels ponds were sources of greenhouse gases to the atmosphere, a scientific study by researchers from the University of Liège (ULiège) and the Free University of Brussels reveals that clear water ponds emit more methane than those with turbid water. The research is published in the journal Biogeosciences. In the Belgian capital, urban ponds dot parks and neighborhoods. Although they may appear similar, they differ in one fundamental way: their ecological status. Some have clear water, rich in visible aquatic plants called macrophytes. Others are turbid, their greenish waters filled with phytoplankton, microscopic algae that thrive in nutrient-rich environments. These two states, known as "alternative states," reflect the ecological history of each pond. Originally, a pond tends towards a clear state. But when too many nutrients (nitrates, phosphates) from agricultural soils or urban runoff are discharged into it, it undergoes eutrophication. This process promotes the proliferation of microalgae (phytoplankton), blocks light and causes the plants at the bottom to die. The pond then shifts to a turbid state, which is often irreversible, as it is difficult to restore the clear state even after the polluting inputs have been stopped. It is in this context that Thomas Bauduin, a Ph.D. student at the University of Liège and the Free University of Brussels, launched a large-scale study of four ponds in Brussels over a period of two and a half years. Two of these ponds have clear water (Silex and Tenreuken) and two have turbid water (Leybeek and Pêcheries). The aim is to measure their greenhouse gas emissions: CO2 (carbon dioxide), CH4 (methane) and N2O (nitrous oxide). "The results are surprising," explains the researcher. "While the diffuse emissions of these gases are similar from one pond to another, methane emissions in the form of bubbles, known as ebullitive emissions, literally explode in clear water." "Diffuse" emissions refer to gases dissolved in water that slowly escape to the surface through molecular diffusion, much like steam escaping from a cup of hot tea. This applies to all gases measured (CO2, CH4,, N2O). "Ebullitive" emissions, on the other hand, only involve methane. Less soluble than other gases, it accumulates in sediments at the bottom, forming small bubbles that suddenly rise to the surface and escape directly into the atmosphere. These can sometimes be seen on summer days when the water is very warm. In clear ponds, the presence of macrophytes seems to promote bubble production. "These plants alter the composition of the bottom, enrich the sediments, and can facilitate the escape of methane into the air," the researcher explains. "In comparison, turbid ponds, dominated by phytoplankton, produce fewer of these methane bubbles." Methane (CH4) is a greenhouse gas 25 times more powerful than carbon dioxide (CO2) over a 100-year period. Although ponds cover only a small area of Earth's surface, their role in the global climate could be underestimated, especially if we neglect ebullitive emissions.
Global study identifies upswing in photosynthesis driven by land, offset by oceans --Terrestrial plants drove an increase in global photosynthesis between 2003 and 2021, a trend partially offset by a weak decline in photosynthesis—the process of using sunlight to make food—among marine algae, according to a study published in Nature Climate Change. The findings could inform planetary health assessments, enhance ecosystem management, and guide climate change projections and mitigation strategies. Photosynthetic organisms—also known as primary producers—form the base of the food chain, making most life on Earth possible. Using energy from the sun, primary producers fix, or convert, carbon from the air into organic, or carbon-based, matter. But primary producers also release carbon through a process called autotrophic respiration, which is somewhat akin to breathing. The rate of carbon gain after accounting for loss through respiration is called net primary production. "Net primary production measures the amount of energy photosynthetic organisms capture and make available to support nearly all other life in an ecosystem," said first author Yulong Zhang, a research scientist in the lab of Wenhong Li at Duke University's Nicholas School of the Environment. "As the foundation of food webs, net primary production determines ecosystem health, provides food and fibers for humans, mitigates anthropogenic carbon emissions and helps to stabilize Earth's climate." Previous research on net primary production has typically focused on either land or ocean ecosystems, leaving gaps in our understanding of net primary production across Earth and the potential implications for climate mitigation. Observations from satellites offer continuous perspective on photosynthesis by plants and marine algae called phytoplankton. Specifically, specialized satellite instruments measure surface greenness, which represents the abundance of a green pigment called chlorophyll produced by photosynthetic life. Computer models then estimate net primary production by combining greenness data with other environmental data, such as temperature, light and nutrient variability. The authors of the new study used six different satellite-based datasets on net primary production—three for land and three for oceans—for the years from 2003 to 2021. Using statistical methods, they analyzed annual changes in net primary production for land and, separately, for the ocean. They found a significant increase in terrestrial net primary production, at a rate of 0.2 billion metric tons of carbon per year between 2003 and 2021. The trend was widespread from temperate to boreal, or high-latitude, areas, with a notable exception in the tropics of South America. By contrast, the team identified an overall decline in marine net primary production, of about 0.1 billion metric tons of carbon per year for the same time period. Strong declines mainly occurred in tropical and subtropical oceans, particularly in the Pacific Ocean. All told, trends on land dominated those of the oceans: global net primary production increased significantly between 2003 and 2021, at a rate of 0.1 billion metric tons of carbon per year.
Krill catch in Antarctica soars to record following collapse of conservation deal — Trawling near Antarctica for krill — a crustacean central to the diet of whales and a critical buffer to global warming — has surged to a record and is fast approaching a never before reached seasonal catch limit that would trigger the unprecedented early closure of the remote fishery, the Associated Press has learned. The fishing boom follows the failure last year of the U.S., Russia, China and two dozen other governments to approve a new management plan that would have mandated spreading out the area in which krill can be caught and creating a California-sized reserve along the environmentally sensitive Antarctic Peninsula. In the first seven months of the 2024-25 season, krill fishing in Antarctica reached 518,568 tons, about 84% of the 620,000-ton limit that, once reached, will force the fishery to automatically close. In one hot spot, the catch through June 30 was nearly 60% higher than all of last year’s haul, according to a report from the Commission for the Conservation of Antarctic Marine Living Resources, or CCAMLR, the international organization that manages the world's southernmost fishery. The report, which has not been publicly released and CCAMLR said contains confidential data, was shared with the AP by someone concerned about overfishing in Antarctica on the condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to release the information. Ukrainian soldier Denys Zalizko, 21, greets his fellow villagers after returning from Russian captivity in Holovyno, Zhytomyr region, Ukraine, Monday, July 7, 2025. Hanna Arhirova and Vasilisa Stepanenko Freed from Russian prisons, Ukrainian soldiers lean into counseling to rebuild their lives “The vast majority of the krill take is from an increasingly smaller area,” said Capt. Peter Hammarstedt, campaign director for conservation group Sea Shepherd Global, which this year made its third voyage to Antarctica to document the fishery. “It’s the equivalent of a hunter saying that they’re only killing 1% of the U.S.’ deer population but leaving out that all of the deer were shot in Rhode Island.” Threat from climate change, advances in fishing Krill is one of the most abundant marine species in the world, with an estimated biomass of 63 million metric tons. But advances in fishing, climate change and growing demand for krill’s Omega-3 rich oil – for fishmeal, pet food and human dietary supplements — have increased pressure on the krill stocks. In the 2023-24 season, a fleet of 12 industrial trawlers from mostly Norway and China caught 498,350 tons of krill — until now the largest harvest since CCAMLR began collecting catch data in 1973. AP journalists traveled to the icy waters around Antarctica in 2023 and observed how factory ships trawl in close proximity to whales whose numbers are still recovering from a century of industrial culling that nearly drove them to extinction. Underscoring the competition between humans and whales, three humpback whales were found dead or seriously injured last year in the long, cylindrical nets deployed by the vessels to vacuum up the paper-clip sized crustacean. Officials have been negotiating for years a new management plan that would balance the growing market for krill with calls for greater protection of the Antarctic Peninsula, the continent's northernmost point and an area teeming with whales and, increasingly, tourists. Currently, less than 5% of the Southern Ocean is protected — well behind CCAMLR’s target and a United Nations goal to preserve 30% of the world’s oceans by 2030. But a tentative deal fell apart at last year’s CCAMLR meeting over a last minute proposal by the United Kingdom and Australia for an even lower catch limit than the one agreed to during talks, AP reported last year. China, objecting to the persistent Western demands, then withdrew its support for the marine reserve and refused to renew the existing management system. “The truth was it was the UK,” “Just a couple days before the vote, the UK threw another suggestion and that's when the Chinese backed off.”
Officials shut down remote krill fishery in Antarctica early (AP) — Officials have shut down early the remote krill fishery near Antarctica after trawling for the tiny crustacean — a vital food source for whales that also helps fight climate change — exceeded the seasonal catch limit for the first time. The unprecedented early closure of the fishery follows a report by The Associated Press last week detailing a record surge in the krill catch after a longstanding conservation framework was allowed to lapse with no plan in place to handle growing pressures in the world’s southernmost fishery. The Commission for the Conservation of Antarctic Marine Living Resources, or CCAMLR, the international organization that manages the fishery, declined to comment but confirmed the closure earlier this month of the 2024-25 season, which should have extended until December, after fishing hit the 620,000 metric ton limit. The U.S., Russia, China and two dozen other governments last year failed to approve a new management plan that would have mandated spreading out the area in which krill can be caught and create a California-sized reserve along the environmentally sensitive Antarctic Peninsula. In the absence of a deal, industrial trawlers were allowed this season to essentially fish anywhere at any time, including in smaller habitats preferred by whales, penguins and seals. In one hot spot, the catch through June 30 was nearly 60% higher than all of last season’s haul, according to an internal CCAMLR report obtained by the AP. Krill is one of the most abundant marine species in the world, with an estimated biomass of 63 million metric tons. But advances in fishing, climate change and growing demand for krill’s Omega-3 rich oil – for fishmeal, pet food and human dietary supplements — have increased pressure on the krill stocks. In the 2023-24 season, a fleet of 12 trawlers from mostly Norway and China caught 498,350 tons of krill — until now the largest harvest since CCAMLR began collecting catch data in 1973. Underscoring the competition between humans and whales, three humpback whales were found dead or seriously injured last year in the long, cylindrical nets deployed by the vessels to vacuum up the paper-clip sized crustacean. Krill aren’t just vital to marine ecosystems. Increasingly, researchers are focusing on their role as a bulwark against climate change. One peer-reviewed study found that krill remove from the atmosphere and store in the ocean 20 million tons of carbon annually. That’s the equivalent of taking off the road 5 million cars every year..
Heat, plant stress and ozone: How climate change is altering the air -Periods of extreme heat often lead to increased exposure to ground-level ozone, in addition to other negative effects. This is dangerous for humans, the environment and agriculture. A study led by Forschungszentrum Jülich now provides surprising findings: With strong global warming, ozone pollution could decrease in some regions of the world. The paper is published in the journal npj Clean Air. The researchers used an innovative "storyline approach": Simulations of plausible climate scenarios that depict various possible developments in global warming—for example, whether extreme weather events such as heat waves or heavy rainfall will become more severe or more frequent. "Our question was: what impact will global warming have on ozone pollution?" explains the first author, Tamara Emmerichs. "We applied warming levels of +2 °C and +2.75 °C compared to pre-industrial temperature levels—based on the weather conditions of the exceptionally hot summers from 2018 to 2020." The emissions of pollutants were kept constant in the simulation, allowing the researchers to analyze the pure influence of temperature and humidity. The result: with a warming of +2 °C, ozone pollution near the ground initially increases in many regions. One reason for this is the intensified chemical production of ozone, partly driven by rising emissions of precursor substances from plants. A more significant factor, however, is that higher temperatures make atmospheric chemistry more efficient at producing ozone. Additionally, the ability of vegetation to remove pollutants decreases, further exacerbating air pollution. Surprisingly, this trend, which was visible in the simulation, reverses with a stronger warming of +2.75 °C: The background concentration of ozone decreases significantly across the Northern Hemisphere. The reason is a more humid atmosphere, in which ozone is broken down more efficiently in the higher atmosphere. "This effect becomes more dominant at higher temperatures," explains Emmerichs. "The result is a net decrease in ozone pollution near the ground." Plants play a dual role here: they can absorb ozone through their leaves and thus contribute to air purification. At the same time, they transpire water and thus cool their surroundings. However, plants react to both drought stress and increased exposure to ozone by closing their stomata—this reduces both the cooling effect and ozone uptake. "Our study shows that plant responses to stress are a central, previously underestimated factor in the future development of ozone pollution," says Jülich atmospheric researcher Domenico Taraborrelli. The scientists' simulation therefore shows that, at 2 °C warming, an increase in deaths caused by ozone can be expected worldwide. With even greater warming of 2.75 °C, the number of these ozone-related deaths decreases significantly again—especially in Europe and India. At the same time, the uptake of harmful ozone by plants increases in certain regions, for example in the boreal forests of the Northern Hemisphere. The "storyline approach" we used makes it clear that the interactions between climate, weather, chemistry and ecology are complex," says Taraborrelli. "Every single aspect of climate change is the result of a large number of these interrelationships and overlapping factors, and is difficult to examine in isolation."
The Eiffel Tower gets bigger every summer—here's why - The structure known today as the Eiffel Tower was originally dubbed the Tour de 300 mètres, the 300-meter tower. The name was proposed by engineersMaurice Koechlin and Émile Nougier to Gustave Eiffel, who oversaw the tower's construction. It hinted at the desire to build something extraordinary, a technological feat that would set a new height record. However, as temperatures rise during the summer months, the Eiffel Tower grows even taller than its original design.The Eiffel Tower was intended to be a prime observation point, as well as a base for radio broadcasting. The tower itself is a gigantic triangular lattice structure, much like the Garabit Viaduct (also designed by Eiffel's office) and the Forth Bridge in Scotland, both from the same period. All of these structures grow when the temperature of the material increases. However, unlike bridges, which behave in a more complex manner, the Eiffel Tower experiences mainly vertical growth and shrinkage due to changes in temperature. This phenomenon is known as thermal expansion. The puddled iron used in the Eiffel Tower, and its steel components, have a coefficient of around 12x10⁻⁶ (°C)⁻¹, meaning that a one-meter-long iron bar expands by 12x10⁻⁶ meters when the temperature rises by one degree. That is just a dozen microns, less than the thickness of a human hair.Now, let's do the math. We'll estimate how much a simple 100-meter-long metal bar expands when the temperature fluctuates by 100⁰C—the approximate range experienced by the Eiffel Tower.The calculation is simple. If a one-meter bar expands by 0.000012 meters when the temperature rises by one degree, a 100-meter bar expands by 0.12 meters when the temperature rises by 100 degrees. And a 300-meter bar would expand three times as much: 0.36 meters. That is 36 cm. This is a noticeable difference.
Groundwater depletion sinks home prices in California's Central Valley - A UC Riverside study has found that as land in California's Central Valley sinks due to excessive groundwater pumping, so do local housing values.The research found that homes in subsiding—or gradually sinking—areas lost between 2.4% and 5.8% of their sale value. In dollar terms, that translates to losses between $6,689 and $16,165 per home.These costs totaled $1.87 billion in aggregate housing value lost across the Central Valley due to subsidence, the study estimated."Basically, the land is sinking and so are the property values," said Mehdi Nemati, a UCR assistant professor of environmental economics and policy who led the study. "This is the first time anyone has quantified how much land subsidence costs homeowners in this region."The study—"The Impact of Land Subsidence on Housing Sale Values: Evidence from the San Joaquin Valley, California"—is forthcoming in the journal Land Economics. .Land subsidence occurs when groundwater is pumped out faster than it is replenished, causing underground clay and silt layers to compact. The result is a gradual, and sometimes irreversible, sinking of the land surface.The San Joaquin Valley, the southern part of the Central Valley, is a globally significant agricultural hub with flat, fertile land that stretches as far as the eye can see and supplies world markets with almonds, grapes, pistachios, citrus fruits, and tomatoes, among other crops. It has also been ground zero for such over-pumping, especially during drought years. As surface water supplies shrink, farmers increasingly tap into groundwater reserves, accelerating subsidence. Overpumping also has been blamed for reducing downward flows to springs and streams, which damages wildlife habitat. Resulting subsidence has also damaged canals, roads, and other infrastructure. Subsidence also reduces the storage capacity of aquifers, making it more difficult to achieve future drought resilience. "It's like permanently shrinking your savings account," said Nemati. "Once compaction occurs, some of the groundwater storage capacity is lost forever."
Severe drought cuts crop yields by up to 85% in parts of Türkiye - Prolonged drought and extreme weather events during the 2024/25 agricultural year have caused crop losses of up to 85% in parts of Türkiye, according to the Türkiye Agricultural Chambers Union (TZOB). The impacts are most severe in Central and Southeastern Anatolia, while national output of key cereals, pulses, and vegetables is expected to decline significantly. Yield assessments from TZOB indicate that dry-farm cereal producers in provinces such as Konya, Şanlıurfa, and Mardin have recorded the sharpest losses. In Konya, traditional cereal yields have fallen from 7 000–7 500 kg/ha (2 830–3 035 kg/acre) to 4 500–5 000 kg/ha (1 820–2 025 kg/acre). Even irrigated fields in some areas have experienced major reductions due to water shortages and high temperatures. The Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) reported that large parts of Central Anatolia, Southeastern Anatolia, and the Marmara region have been in moderate to extreme drought since late 2024. Seasonal precipitation from autumn 2024 to early spring 2025 was 30–50% below normal in key breadbasket areas. June 2025 marked the driest June in 54 years in parts of Marmara, with temperature anomalies exceeding +1.5°C (+2.7°F). The drought was preceded by an extensive frost event in April 2025, which damaged cereals, sunflowers, sugar beet, fruit, and nut crops across 36 provinces. Combined, the frost and subsequent heat stress are expected to cut Türkiye’s cereal and field crop production by about 5% year-on-year, with larger regional variations. According to USDA Foreign Agricultural Service estimates for marketing year 2025/26, wheat production will total about 18.5–18.6 million tonnes, down 6–7% from the previous year. Barley output is forecast to fall 11% to about 6.25 million tonnes, while rice is projected down 5% to about 828 000 tonnes. Corn, which is largely irrigated, is expected to rise 12% to around 7.9 million tonnes, assuming irrigation water remains available. Turkey’s agricultural sector faces structural water management challenges, with about 80% of national water use consumed by agriculture, primarily through inefficient surface irrigation methods that lose 35–60% to evaporation and runoff.
Smoke from Canadian wildfires triggers air quality alerts in 10 U.S. states, 2025 nears second-worst year -Air quality alerts were issued across the U.S. Midwest and Northeast on Monday, August 4, 2025, and remain in effect on August 5, as over 740 wildfires burning across Canada send smoke to the U.S. Currently, 2025 is the third most destructive year for wildfires in Canada and is likely to become the second most destructive year surpassing 1989 when wildfires burned over 17 million acres of land across the country. Wildfires burning across northern Manitoba and Saskatchewan are sending smoke across the Great Lakes region and the northeastern United States. Air quality alerts were issued on Monday, August 4, across 10 states from Minnesota to Connecticut. Red flag warnings remain in effect for parts of Nevada, Utah, Colorado, and Wyoming due to very dry conditions, low humidity, and gusty winds. Existing fires may undergo rapid development, and new fires could ignite quickly under these conditions. next stay Air quality index (AQI) readings exceeding 150 were recorded in several cities — levels considered unhealthy even for individuals not classified as sensitive groups. Hazy skies were also observed in East Coast cities, including New York City, on Monday. As of early afternoon, AQI sensors in the area registered values below 100, indicating air pollution levels that are not considered harmful to the general population. The most hazardous smoke concentrations were reported in small Canadian towns located near the wildfires. These areas are experiencing air quality levels classified as hazardous, posing a serious risk to human health. Further from the source of the fires, a dense haze reached surface levels early Monday, resulting in unhealthy air quality from Milwaukee to Buffalo, including major cities such as Detroit and Toronto. As of Tuesday, 741 wildfires were actively burning across Canada, with 304 classified as out of control. The fires have scorched more than 6.4 million ha (16 million acres) of land, making 2025 the third most destructive wildfire year in Canadian history since records began in 1983. With only 400 000 ha (1 million acres) remaining to surpass the second-most destructive year, 2025 is likely to overtake that position. Currently, the second place is held by 1989 with over 6.8 million ha (17 million acres) of land being burned, while the most destructive year remains 2023, during which wildfires burned more than 16.9 million ha (42 million acres) across Canada.
81 million from Midwest to Northeast see Air Quality Alerts due to Canadian wildfire smoke -Air quality remains a concern from the Midwest to the Northeast and New England as wildfire smoke from Canada smothers the sky across the eastern half of the U.S. "We've seen days and days of hazy skies across Milwaukee, and that just happened to overlap for the first week of the state fair," FOX Weather Meteorologist Craig Herrera said. The thick plumes of smoke in Canada are being driven southward into the U.S. by northerly winds on the backside of an area of high pressure. A video recorded from an airplane shows how hazy the sky was above New York City as thick plumes of Canadian wildfire smoke drifted into the U.S. on Aug. 4, 2025. The FOX Forecast Center said the wildfire smoke has settled closer to the surface, resulting in widespread reductions in air quality. "You should limit your outdoor activities, and professionals say maybe wear an N95 mask to protect yourself from some of the wildfire smoke in the sky," Herrera continued. The highest concentrations of Canadian wildfire smoke have been located in Wisconsin, including Milwaukee, and Michigan, with air quality index values ranging from Unhealthy to Very Unhealthy across the region on Monday. In fact, about 81 million people from the Upper Midwest to northern New England are under an air quality alert. The entire states of Wisconsin, Michigan, Vermont and New Hampshire, as well as most of New York and Connecticut and eastern Pennsylvania are under an Air Quality Alert.
Upstate NY under health advisory again Wednesday from wildfire smoke - syracuse.com n— Smoke from Canadian wildfires is expected to continue blanketing the Northeast on Wednesday, causing “unhealthy” pollution levels for sensitive groups.An air quality health advisory will continue into Wednesday for much of Upstate New York, according to a news release from the state Department of Environmental Conservation on Tuesday.The DEC has warned of poor air quality in the region for four days in a row. The smoke has also caused hazy skies.The smoke-related pollution is a concern for people with cardiovascular and respiratory conditions, according to the DEC.The Air Quality Index is expected to exceed a value of 100, according to the release. A higher value on the index indicates a higher health concern. At 5 p.m. Tuesday, the air quality index was 122 in Syracuse.Over 280 wildfires are burning in Canada, with approximately 60 fires burning uncontrolled and 100 under control, according to the National Wildland Fire Situation ReportExposure to smoke-related pollution can cause short-term effects, including eye irritation, coughing, sneezing and shortness of breath. Medical conditions, including asthma and heart disease, can also worsen with exposure.The DEC recommends people stay indoors to avoid prolonged exposure.
Air quality alerts in place for 10 states as wildfires burn in Canada and West - ABC News - Air quality alerts are in effect on Tuesday in 10 states as toxic smoke from hundreds of wildfires burning in Canada continues to waft into the United States, creating hazy, gray skies over major metropolitan areas, including New York City. At least 741 wildfires are burning in Canada, including 304 labeled out of control. The Canadian wildfires have burned more than 16 million acres this year -- more than double their 10-year average to date. This is already the third most destructive year for wildfires in Canada since records began in 1983. This fire season now ranks second at this point, behind the 2023 Canada wildfire season, which sent plumes of smoke down to the United States and turned the skies over major cities, including New York, an eerie orange. PHOTO: Canada Wildfire A helicopter flies by the Wesley Ridge wildfire near Cameron Lake where an out-of-control fire continues to burn near Coombs, British Columbia, Sunday, Aug. 3, 2025. Chad Hipolito/AP The intensifying Canadian smoke prompted the Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection on Tuesday to declare a "Code Orange Air Quality Action Day" in more than 40 counties, including the city of Philadelphia. "On a Code Orange Air Quality Action Day, young children, the elderly, and those with respiratory problems, such as asthma, emphysema, and bronchitis, are especially vulnerable to the effects of air pollution and should limit outdoor activities," the Pennsylvania EPA said. A "code orange" advisory is just one level below a "code red" alert that signals unhealthy air for all individuals on the EPA's Air Quality Index Guide. The index guide also has a "code purple" level signaling "very unhealthy air" and a "code maroon" for hazardous air quality. On Monday, the smoke from Canada prompted a ground stop at Boston's Logan International Airport due to "low visibility" and caused delays in airport operations that extended into the afternoon, according to the Federal Aviation Administration. Air quality in Michigan, including the city of Detroit, remained unhealthy for sensitive groups on Tuesday. Smoke from the Canadian fires are forecast to be medium to heavy through Wednesday from Duluth, Minnesota, to Buffalo, New York, and through New York's Hudson Valley. Meanwhile, wildfires burning in U.S. Western states were prompting red flag fire danger warnings on Tuesday. Red flag warnings remain in place for parts of Nevada, Utah, Colorado and Wyoming due to very dry conditions, low humidity and gusty winds that could rapidly spread new fires. One of the biggest active wildfires is burning in Southern California's Santa Barbara and San Luis Obispo counties. As of Tuesday morning, the Gifford Fire, which started on Sunday, had burned more than 82,500 acres across Santa Barbara and San Luis Obispo counties and was just 7% contained, according to the California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection. Wildfires burning in the West are creating smoky skies for millions from Southern California to Colorado. The FAA announced that it was slowing flights into Denver International Airport due to smoke and low visibility. The Harry Reid International Airport in Las Vegas also had a brief slowdown in air traffic on Tuesday morning, but it has since been lifted.
Canada Wildfires: Military Is Brought In to Battle Blazes - With wildfires forcing evacuations from Vancouver Island on the Pacific Coast to Newfoundland in the North Atlantic, Canadian officials were mustering additional resources on Thursday to help provinces cope with the blazes and the disruption. Eleanor Olszewski, Canada’s emergency management minister, announced on social media Thursday morning that the armed forces and the Coast Guard would assist the island province of Newfoundland in fighting blazes. Three out-of-control fires forced the evacuation of 900 people in the province on Thursday. Some provinces have moved this week to limit activities like hiking that could spark additional blazes, with forecasts indicating it is unlikely that sufficient rain would fall in regions plagued by out-of-control fires. Canada’s national fire threat level has been at 5, the highest danger rating, since late May. About 7.1 million hectares, or 27,000 square miles, of forest have burned so far this season in the country, spreading smoke through parts of Ontario and Quebec, the most populous provinces, and down into the eastern United States, although not with the same intensity as two years ago. There are 725 active wildfires in Canada, according to the Canadian Interagency Forest Fire Center, the national firefighting coordinating body. “Twenty twenty-five seems to be the second-highest number of hectares burned after 2023,” Awa Cissé, a spokeswoman for the center, said on Thursday. The extent of this year’s fires, she added, has overwhelmed Canada’s fire fighting capability. “Domestic resources are maxed out,” Ms. Cissé said. “We’ve asked for help from our international partners.” Manitoba, where about 14,000 people have evacuated, continues to be the province most affected by fires this season, and it remains under its second state of emergency of the year. In May, a couple died in Manitoba after being trapped by fire. The province said in a statement on Thursday that this fire season “is now the worst on record in the last 30 years.” Scientists have shown that warming global temperatures have greatly increased the chances of extreme fire weather, with more frequent and more intense wildfires as a result. The largest current wildfire in Canada is in Saskatchewan, Manitoba’s neighbor to the west, Ms. Cissé said. One out-of-control fire causing particular concern is burning about 50 kilometers, or 30 miles, northwest of Nanaimo, British Columbia, the second-largest city on Vancouver Island. After evacuations were ordered, about 110 households were allowed to return on Wednesday night, leaving 294 homes under evacuation orders. Officials say it appears that no one who returned stayed overnight in the area, which is enveloped in heavy smoke. On Tuesday, Tim Houston, the premier of Nova Scotia, announced a ban on hiking, fishing and the use of motorcycles and all terrain vehicles on public forest lands. Private landowners are barred from taking guests onto forested property. Mining and logging companies also face restrictions.
Dragon Bravo Fire burns 50 000 ha (123 000 acres), becomes Arizona’s 10th largest wildfire on record – (videos) Dragon Bravo Fire has burned over 49 000 ha (123 000 acres) near the Grand Canyon’s North Rim as of August 3 , 2025, with containment at 12 % and more than 1 200 personnel engaged in suppression efforts. The Dragon Bravo Fire, a megafire ignited by lightning on July 4, in Grand Canyon National Park’s North Rim area, Arizona, has burned an estimated 49 845 ha (123 171 acres) as of August 3, according to the U.S. Forest Service (USFS). Containment is reported at 13 % under a full suppression strategy. This is now the tenth-largest fire on record for Arizona, and the largest fire for the contiguous United States in 2025. The fire has destroyed the historic Grand Canyon Lodge and at least 80 additional structures on July 12–13, including visitor cabins and park administrative buildings. No fatalities or injuries have been reported. More than 1 200 personnel are assigned to the incident. Crews are reinforcing containment lines along the fire’s northern flank, conducting firing operations near Kaibab Lodge, and targeting unburned terrain in the northwest sector. Fire managers report that low relative humidity, at times near 10 %, and gusts up to 56 km/h (35 mph) continue to challenge suppression efforts. Nighttime humidity recovery above 50% and intermittent cloud cover have provided temporary relief; however, drying conditions are forecast into the coming week. The initial “confine and contain” strategy, later shifted to full suppression, has drawn criticism from Arizona officials and prompted calls for a federal review of early incident management decisions. The entire North Rim of Grand Canyon National Park is closed for the 2025 season, including major trails and inner‑canyon facilities such as Phantom Ranch, the North Kaibab Trail, and the South Kaibab Trail.
Gifford Fire burns over 26 000 ha (65 000 acres) in Los Padres National Forest, California Gifford Fire has burned over 26 200 ha (65 000 acres) in Los Padres National Forest, California, forcing evacuations in Santa Barbara and San Luis Obispo Counties since igniting on August 1, 2025. Gifford Fire started at 14:00 local time (LT) on August 1, near Highway 166 close to the Gifford Trailhead in the Santa Lucia Ranger District of Los Padres National Forest. The cause is under investigation. As of 16:00 UTC on August 4, the fire had grown to an estimated 26 330 ha (65 062 acres) and is just 3% contained. More than 1 000 firefighting personnel are engaged, supported by helicopters, air tankers, dozers, and engines under Unified Command between Los Padres National Forest, CAL FIRE, and Santa Barbara County Fire Department. Ad ends in 5 The fire is burning in steep, rugged terrain covered with tall grass exceeding 60 cm (2 feet) and chaparral over 1.8 m (6 feet) in height. These fuels, combined with temperatures in the mid‑30s °C (mid‑90s °F), low humidity, and north‑north‑east wind gusts up to 40 km/h (25 mph), are driving aggressive fire behavior. Three people have been injured, one civilian with burns was airlifted for treatment, and two contracted workers were hurt in a utility terrain vehicle rollover. Mandatory evacuation orders remain in effect for multiple zones in both counties, including Upper Tepusquet Canyon, Cottonwood Canyon Road, and areas west of School House Road.
Canyon Fire forces thousands to evacuate in Ventura and Los Angeles Counties, California - (videos) The rapidly-spreading Canyon Fire near Lake Piru, California has burned nearly 2 023 ha (5 000 acres) since igniting on August 7, 2025, and triggered evacuation orders for 2 500 residents. Firefighters, with 400 personnel, 7 helicopters, and 11 fixed-wing aircraft, are battling the blaze as it spreads east toward communities and powerlines. The Canyon Fire began at approximately 13:30 local time (LT) on August 7, in a remote mountainous area near Holser Canyon Road, northeast of Piru, Ventura County. By early August 8, the fire had grown to 1 965 ha (4 856 acres), with no containment reported. The cause remains under investigation, with extreme heat and low humidity fueling its rapid spread. The fire has crossed into Los Angeles County, moving east toward communities like Hasley Canyon, Hathaway Ranch, and Val Verde. Driven by light winds up to 40 km/h (25 mph) and an onshore push, it is burning through light to medium fuels. The blaze threatens critical infrastructure, including 60 kV powerlines, while moving away from Piru. Evacuation orders affect approximately 2 500 residents and 700 structures, primarily in Los Angeles County, with zones such as PIRU-14, PIRU-01, LAKP-05, LAKP-06, LAKP-04, CAS-VALVERDE, CAS-OAKCANYON, CAS-HASLEY, and CAS-ROMERO under mandatory evacuation. In Ventura County, the Lake Piru Recreation Area, Camulos, and Piru are also included. An evacuation center is operational at the East Gymnasium, College of the Canyons, in Santa Clarita. Evacuation warnings cover about 14 000 people and over 4 700 structures in zones in Ventura and Los Angeles Counties. Road closures include the Lake Piru Recreation Area and Piru Canyon Road. Firefighting efforts involve 400 personnel, supported by 7 helicopters and 11 fixed-wing aircraft, including air tankers. Agencies such as the Ventura County Fire Department, Los Angeles County Fire Department, CAL FIRE, and the U.S. Forest Service are coordinating under a Unified Command. Strategies include building a containment “box” around the fire and conducting strategic water drops near Lake Piru. Environmental conditions are exacerbating the fire’s spread, with temperatures nearing 38°C (100°F) and humidity between 15% and 20%. Wind gusts up to 40 km/h (25 mph), driven by an onshore flow, are pushing the fire east. A weakening coastal marine layer may further elevate fire risk in nearby areas. The fire’s proximity to the Pitchess Detention Center, housing around 5 000 inmates, has prompted a shelter-in-place recommendation for the facility.
France's biggest wildfire of the summer has eclipsed the size of Paris and is still spreading -France's biggest wildfire this summer was spreading quickly Wednesday in a Mediterranean region near the Spanish border after leaving one person dead, authorities said. The fire had burned an area larger than Paris. French Prime Minister François Bayrou deplored a "disaster on an unprecedented scale" in the region. Over 2,100 firefighters and several water bomber aircraft battled the blaze that broke out Tuesday afternoon in the village of Ribaute in the Aude region, a rural, wooded area that is home to wineries. The fire, which has burned 13,000 hectares (32,000 acres), remained "very active" on Wednesday, the local administration said in a statement. The weather was hot, dry and windy, making it difficult for firefighters to contain the blaze. Interior Minister Bruno Retailleau said the military will reinforce efforts starting from Thursday, with several dozens of soldiers to be deployed. One person died in their home, and at least 13 others were injured, including 11 firefighters, local authorities said. One person who was initially described as missing has been located and is safe. Jacques Piraux, mayor of the village of Jonquières, said all residents have been evacuated. "It looks like a lunar landscape, everything is burned. More than half or three-quarters of the village has burned down. It's hellish." Residents and tourists in nearby areas were requested to remain in their homes unless told to evacuate. Two campsites were evacuated as a precaution. The area's economy is relying on winery and tourism and "both sectors are affected,"
Japan sweats through hottest July on record - Japan sweltered through its hottest July since records began in 1898, the weather agency has reported, warning of further "severe heat" in the month ahead. Heat waves are becoming more intense and frequent the world over because of human-caused climate change, scientists say, and Japan is no exception. The average temperature in July was up a record 2.89C from the 1991-2020 average for the month, the Japan Meteorological Agency said on Friday. It was the third year in a row of record-breaking average temperatures for July, it said. On July 30, Japan experienced its highest recorded temperature, a sizzling 41.2C in the western region of Hyogo. "The next month is expected to continue to bring severe heat throughout the country," the weather agency said. Precipitation in July was low over wide areas of Japan, with northern regions facing the Sea of Japan experiencing record low rainfall, it added. The rainy season ended about three weeks earlier than usual in western regions of Japan, another record. The famous snowcap of Mount Fuji was absent for the longest recorded period last year, not appearing until early November, compared with the average of early October.
Phoenix logs highest August temperature on record - Phoenix, Arizona, reached 47.8°C (118°F) on August 7, 2025, setting the highest August temperature since records began in 1895. Other locations across the region also saw record highs, with Blythe, California, reaching 48.9°C (120°F). Mercury reached 47.8°C (118°F) in Phoenix, Arizona, on August 7, setting a record for the highest August temperature since records began in 1895. This broke a four-way tie of 47.2°C (117°F) recorded in 2011, 2015, 2020, and 2023. Meanwhile, Scottsdale recorded a maximum temperature of 46.7°C (116°F) and Deer Valley reached 46.1°C (115°F), both setting new monthly records. Yuma, Arizona; El Centro, California; and Blythe, California, all set new daily high temperature records for August 7, reaching 45.6°C (114°F), 47.8°C (118°F), and 48.9°C (120°F) respectively. It was the second consecutive day with extreme August temperatures. On August 6, Phoenix reached 46.7°C (116°F), and daily highs throughout August so far have ranged from 44.4°C to 45.6°C (112°F to 114°F). High temperatures are expected to drop by a few degrees on August 8, but extreme heat warnings remain in effect through the evening across much of central and southern Arizona. Increased atmospheric moisture is expected to raise humidity levels.
Weather-tracking advances are revealing astonishing extremes of lightning -It was a single lightning flash that streaked across the Great Plains for 515 miles, from eastern Texas nearly all the way to Kansas City, setting a new world record. "We call it megaflash lightning and we're just now figuring out the mechanics of how and why it occurs," said Randy Cerveny, an Arizona State University President's Professor in the School of Geographical Sciences and Urban Planning. Cerveny and colleagues used space-based instruments to measure the megaflash, which took place during a major thunderstorm in October 2017. Its astonishing horizontal reach surpasses by 38 miles the previous record of 477 miles recorded during an April 2020 storm in the southern U.S. The new record-setter went unnoticed until a re-examination of satellite observations from the 2017 storm. "It is likely that even greater extremes still exist, and that we will be able to observe them as additional high-quality lightning measurements accumulate over time," said Cerveny, who serves as rapporteur of weather and climate extremes for the World Meteorological Organization, the weather agency of the United Nations. For years, lightning detection and measurement relied on ground-based networks of antennas that detect the radio signals emitted by lightning and then estimate location and travel speed based on the time it takes signals to reach other antenna stations in the network. Satellite-borne lightning detectors in orbit since 2017 have made it possible to continuously detect lightning and measure it accurately at continental-scale distances. "Our weather satellites carry very exacting lightning detection equipment that we can use to document to the millisecond when a lightning flash starts and how far it travels," Cerveny said. Parked in geostationary orbit, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's GOES-16 satellite detects around one million lightning flashes per day. It is the first of four NOAA satellites equipped with geostationary lightning mappers, joined by similar satellites launched by Europe and China. Most lightning flashes are limited to less than 10 miles in reach. When alightning bolt reaches beyond 60 miles (100 kilometers to be exact), it's considered a megaflash. Less than 1% of thunderstorms produce megaflash lightning, according to satellite observations analyzed by Peterson. They arise from storms that are long-lived, typically brewing for 14 hours or more, and massive in size, covering an area comparable in square miles to the state of New Jersey. The average megaflash shoots off five to seven ground-striking branches from its horizontal path across the sky. While megaflashes that extend hundreds of miles are rare, it's not at all unusual for lightning to strike 10 or 15 miles from its storm-cloud origin, Cerveny said. And that adds to the danger. Cerveny said people don't realize how far lightning can reach from its parent thunderstorm. Lightning kills 20 to 30 people each year in the U.S. and injures hundreds more. Most lightning strike injuries occur before and after the thunderstorm has peaked, not at the height of the storm. "That's why you should wait at least a half an hour after a thunderstorm passes before you go out and resume normal activities," Cerveny said. "The storm that produces a lightning strike doesn't have to be over the top of you."
Extreme rainfall causes severe flooding in South Korea - An extreme rainfall event struck South Korea between August 3 and 4, 2025, triggering severe flooding across the southern regions of the country. Over 280 mm (11 inches) of rainfall was recorded in Muan in just 24 hours, with the hourly rainfall rates reaching over extreme 140 mm (6 inches) on August 4. Heavy rains and severe flooding lashed southern South Korea through August 4, with the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) recording extreme hourly and daily precipitation across multiple provinces. The heaviest rainfall was recorded in Muan County, South Jeolla, where authorities reported 289.6 mm (11.4 inches) of accumulation, including 142.1 mm (5.6 inches) rain falling in just one hour. One fatality was confirmed in Muan County, where a man in his 60s was found dead in a stream after being swept away by strong currents. However, authorities have not confirmed whether the death was flood-related. Local authorities described this as a once-in-200-year event, with some areas receiving over 200 mm (7.9 inches) of rain within 24 hours between August 3 and 4. Hapcheon recorded 212.3 mm (8.4 inches), Goryeong reported 196.5 mm (7.7 inches), and more than 100 mm (3.9 inches) was reported in multiple inland and coastal cities through August 4.
Destructive floods hit southern Taiwan after 2 900 mm (114 inches) of rainfall in one week - Extremely heavy rainfall totaling nearly 2 900 mm (114 inches) from July 28 to August 4, 2025, caused severe flooding and landslides across southern Taiwan, killing at least four people, leaving three missing, and forcing nearly 6 000 to evacuate. Torrential rainfall affecting Taiwan from July 28–August 4, 2025 produced accumulations of nearly 2 900 mm (114 inches) in Kaohsiung’s Maolin area, the Central Weather Administration (CWA) said. Other high‑impact locations included Wutai Township in Pingtung County, which recorded 2 364 mm (93.07 inches). The totals surpassed Taiwan’s annual average rainfall of about 2 100 mm (83 inches) and approached records set by Typhoon Morakot in 2009. According to CWA data, central and southern observation stations recorded daily totals above 200 mm (7.87 inches) for seven consecutive days, meeting the “extremely heavy” classification for the first time since 1998. Several sites reported “extremely torrential” rain of more than 500 mm (19.69 inches) in 24 hours or over 100 mm (3.94 inches) in three hours. The rainfall was caused by a persistent southwesterly airstream from the South China Sea under a low‑pressure system, intensified by moisture from Typhoon Co‑may. This pattern sustained intense precipitation across the island’s south and central mountain ranges. The Ministry of the Interior’s National Fire Agency confirmed at least four fatalities, with up to five reported by local authorities, three missing persons, and 78 injuries. Landslides, flooding, and road collapses affected multiple counties, including Kaohsiung, Pingtung, Chiayi, and Tainan. Nearly 6 000 people were evacuated from high‑risk areas. More than 50 671 households experienced power outages at the peak of the event, with 303 still offline on August 4. Landslides severed key road links, isolating mountain communities and complicating rescue and supply operations.
Hong Kong records highest August daily rainfall since 1884, four black warnings in 8 days - The Watchers Hong Kong recorded its heaviest August daily rainfall since records began in 1884, with 355–359 mm (14–14.1 inches) measured by mid‑afternoon on August 5, 2025, prompting a black rainstorm warning that lasted more than 11 hours, the second‑longest on record. The Hong Kong Observatory (HKO) reported 355.7 mm (14 inches) of rainfall at its Tsim Sha Tsui headquarters by 14:00 local time (LT) on August 5. Later readings reached 358.8 mm (14.1 inches), surpassing all previous August daily rainfall records since observations began in 1884. The black rainstorm warning, issued when hourly rainfall exceeds 70 mm (2.8 inches), remained in force for approximately 11 hours and 15 minutes, second only to the 16.5‑hour warning issued in September 2023. The August 5 event marked the fourth black rainstorm warning in just eight days, setting a new annual frequency record. Rainfall rates peaked near 90 mm/hour (3.5 inches/hour), accompanied by over 9 600 lightning strikes recorded from 05:00–12:00 LT. Severe flooding occurred in multiple districts. Queen Mary Hospital reported ankle‑deep water at entrances, forcing temporary service suspensions. The Drainage Services Department confirmed at least 25 flooding incidents, including submerged parking lots and flooded staircases. Schools, courts, and outpatient clinics closed for the day. Traffic restrictions were imposed on the Hong Kong–Zhuhai-Macau Bridge, a span of 55 km (34 miles) due to low visibility. At Hong Kong International Airport, approximately 20% of flights were cancelled and more than 400 were delayed.
Severe flooding affects over 131 000 people in Myanmar, leaves 10 dead - Severe flooding triggered by intense monsoon rains since late July 2025 has killed at least 10 people, left 12 missing, and injured 77 across Myanmar, affecting more than 131 000 people and displacing over 18 000 as of August 6, 2025. Heavy monsoon rainfall intensified across Myanmar in late July 2025, leading to widespread flooding in multiple regions including Bago, Kayin, Mon, Shan, and Kachin. The flooding was enhanced by moisture inflow from Cyclone Wipha’s outer bands, causing prolonged precipitation over major river basins. As of August 6, over 131 000 people had been affected by the floods. According to the European Commission’s Directorate-General for European Civil Protection and Humanitarian Aid Operations (DG ECHO), continued rainfall was expected into August 8, raising risks for central and northern regions. Confirmed casualties now include at least 10 deaths and 9 people reported missing. Fatalities occurred in Taungoo District (3), Bilin Township (1), and Laiza (6), where flash flooding also destroyed around 100 homes. More than 30 000 people have been displaced in flood-affected townships across Mon State, Karen State, and Bago Region. Eight temporary shelters were opened in Bilin alone, while evacuations were carried out in Taungoo, Hpa‑an, Kawkareik, Kya‑In Seik Gyi, and others. ADAM flood extent maps published by the United Nations on August 4 confirm widespread inundation in eastern Bago and low-lying areas of Mon and Kayin. River levels in Hpa‑an, Madauk, Taungoo, and Myawaddy remained significantly above danger thresholds through early August. Infrastructure damage includes the destruction of Do Thaung Bridge near Htantapin and the collapse of flood-control embankments.In Shan State, evacuations exceeded 2 000 people, and temporary shelters were opened in monasteries and sports halls.
10 dead, 33 missing after Yuzhong County, China, receives half a year’s rainfall in 24 hours - (videos)Flash floods in Yuzhong County, Gansu Province, China, killed at least 10 people and left 33 missing after up to half of the county’s average annual rainfall fell between August 7 and 8, 2025. Heavy rainfall began at around 18:00 local time on August 7, triggering flash floods across the county. More than 4 000 people from four villages were stranded in the Xinglong Mountain area as the floods disrupted power and telecommunications. By the morning of August 8, 195 mm (7.68 inches) of rainfall was recorded in the mountainous parts of Yuzhong. This equaled roughly half of the county’s average annual rainfall of 300–400 mm (12–16 inches). Some local reports indicate that parts of the region received over 220 mm (9 inches) of rain in 24 hours between August 7 and 8. Three people were reported missing after a landslide occurred in Maliantan village, in the mountainous areas near Lanzhou, on August 7. Chinese President Xi Jinping urged full-scale rescue efforts in the county. The local government activated a Level-1 emergency response, and the National Development and Reform Commission allocated 100 million yuan (about USD 14 million) to support the rescue operations. YouTube video Yuzhong is situated on one of the world’s largest loess plateaus, amidst gullies and hills of wind-blown silt. This location makes it susceptible to flash floods and landslides, as the loose soil structure becomes unstable when saturated with water.
Heavy rain slams southern Japan, triggering floods and mudslides - -- Torrential rain pounded the southern Japanese island of Kyushu on Friday, triggering floods and landslides and sending residents to shelters as officials issued highest-level warnings in parts of the region. A mudslide hit a house in Aira city in Kagoshima prefecture, burying two people who were rescued alive and taken to hospital, according to the Fire and Disaster Management Agency. The agency issued evacuation advisories to more than 360,000 people in Kagoshima prefecture and neighboring Miyazaki. Television footage showed muddy water gushing down swollen rivers. In Kirishima city, floodwater was up to knee level at a shopping mall. The heavy rain paralyzed local transportation, halting trains and buses. Dozens of flights in and out of Kagoshima have been canceled. Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba 's government set up a task force for emergency response and support. “The government will do everything to protect your life and safety,” he said. The Japan Meteorological Agency predicted heavy rainfall and thunderstorms through Friday in Kyushu because of a low-pressure system. JMA official Shuichi Tachihara, in a nationally televised news conference, warned that there is a growing risk of disaster, urging residents in the region to take early precautions.
'Never seen before' rains lash southern Japan – CNA - Record rainfall hit parts of southern Japan on Friday (Aug 8), as authorities urged residents to evacuate and warned of possible landslides. The deluge follows a period of punishing heat in many parts of Japan, with a national record temperature of 41.8°C set this week. Television footage showed brown, fast-flowing water overflowing its banks to inundate homes in the Kagoshima region. Local media reported that Kirishima city, Kagoshima, saw a record rain of 500mm in the 24 hours through 5am (4am Singapore time), twice the average rainfall for the entire month of August. The Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) said the region was "seeing heavy rains that it has never experienced before", but it downgraded its highest alert for heavy rain as the downpour eased. "Even though the warning has been downgraded, please remain vigilant and ensure your safety," JMA official Shuichi Tachihara said at a press conference. "Even a small amount of rain could increase the risk of disaster. Please continue to be on high alert for landslides and river flooding," he said. Over 122,000 residents in Kirishima were urged to evacuate, while the warning was lifted for people in the neighbouring Miyazaki region. More than half a million people had earlier been encouraged to leave their homes. Two people were rescued from a collapsed house after a landslide in Aira, another city in Kagoshima, a local fire department official told AFP. A woman in her 30s, also believed to be a resident of the house, is missing. Domestic flights at Kagoshima airport were cancelled.
Hundreds of vehicles stranded as rare snowstorm hits New South Wales, Australia - - A powerful winter storm impacted the Northern Tablelands of New South Wales on Saturday, August 2, producing rare heavy snowfall in elevated regions and widespread hazardous conditions across the area. Up to 50 cm (20 inches) of snow fell across elevated areas of New South Wales’ Northern Tablelands on Saturday, August 2, 2025, as a rare winter storm disrupted transport and triggered widespread emergency response. Around 200 vehicles were stranded due to the severe weather, with the State Emergency Services responding to 745 weather related incidents in just 24 hours. According to the New South Wales State Emergency Service (SES), snow accumulation of up to 50 cm (20 inches) was reported near Guyra and Armidale, stranding more than 200 vehicles and causing significant transport disruptions. The New England Highway, Waterfall Way, and Oxley Highway were all closed due to snow cover, black ice, flooding, and fallen trees. SES confirmed that some drivers were trapped overnight, with rescue efforts continuing into the afternoon. In addition to snowfall, parts of the region recorded rainfall totals between 65 mm and 130 mm (2.5–5 inches), increasing flood risks on local rivers, including the Peel and Namoi. Wind gusts of 90–100 km/h (56–62 mph) were recorded in multiple locations, with damage to power lines and infrastructure reported. The SES responded to 745 incidents in the 24 hours to 16:30 local time on Saturday, deploying over 1 000 volunteers statewide as part of a coordinated emergency response. Reports indicate that 28–34 weather alerts were issued during the peak of severe weather. Guyra, situated at approximately 1 330 m (4 364 feet) elevation, reported over 15 cm (6 inches) of snow by midday, with some unofficial estimates reaching 40 cm (16 inches). Armidale, at a lower elevation, recorded between 10 and 14 cm (4–5.5 inches), marking its heaviest snow in more than a decade. It is worth noting that snowfall of this magnitude is rare in the region, which typically sees measurable snow only once every few years. Accumulations exceeding 15 cm (6 inches) over these areas are historically exceptional.
Record winds hit Northern Ireland, as Storm Floris lashes United Kingdom -videos - Storm Floris struck the United Kingdom on August 4, 2025, undergoing explosive cyclogenesis and producing widespread wind damage, power outages, and travel disruption. The system reached bomb cyclone status after its central pressure dropped 24 hPa in 24 hours, with peak gusts of 129 km/h (80 mph) recorded around Moray Firth and 106 km/h (66 mph) at Orlock Head — tying Northern Ireland’s August wind record set in 1989. Storm Floris struck parts of the United Kingdom on August 4 with winds exceeding 129 km/h (80 mph), marking the strongest winds in Northern Ireland since 1989. Winds reached 106 km/h (66 mph) at Orlock Head, located between Bangor and Donaghadee on the northern coast of County Down. The Met Office confirmed this tied the record for the strongest August gust in Northern Ireland, originally set in 1989. As of 17:17 UTC on August 4, the strongest winds across the British Isles were recorded around the Moray Firth, reaching approximately 129 km/h (80 mph). A total of 10 flights were cancelled at Belfast City Airport, making it the second most affected facility in the United Kingdom after Aberdeen Airport, where wind gusts reached approximately 132 km/h (82 mph), provisionally breaking Scotland’s August wind record. YouTube video Amber and Yellow weather warnings remain in effect across the British Isles. Severe flood warnings were issued for the River Strath Oykel in northern Scotland and the Churchill Barriers, four causeways in the Orkney Islands. Floris is the sixth named storm of the 2024–25 European windstorm season, which officially runs from September 2024 through August 2025.
Storm Floris batters Scotland with 90 mph winds, disrupts travel and festivals - G(AP) — Authorities in Scotland canceled trains, closed parks and warned people to tie down backyard trampolines as an unusually strong summer storm toppled trees, felled power lines and disrupted travel across northern Britain. The U.K.’s Meteorological Office on Monday issued an “amber” wind warning in Scotland for Storm Floris, meaning there is potential risk to lives and property, especially from large waves in coastal areas. Network Rail Scotland said wind gusts of up to 90 mph (145kph) had brought down trees across lines and damaged overhead wires. More than 22,000 properties were without electricity, operator Scottish and Southern Electricity Networks said. After reports of mobile homes being blown over on the Isle of Skye off Scotland’s northwest coast, police Scotland said that “anyone with campervans should remain parked in sheltered areas until the wind speed reduces.” The wind and heavy rain hit at the busiest time of year for tourism, with hundreds of thousands of people flocking to the Edinburgh Fringe and other arts festivals. The Edinburgh Military Tattoo, one of the city’s biggest tourist draws, cancelled Monday’s scheduled outdoor performance by massed ranks of bagpipers and drummers at Edinburgh Castle. Train companies canceled services across much of Scotland and some ferry crossings were also scrapped. Floris, named by weather authorities, also hit parts of Northern Ireland, Wales and northern England, the Met Office said.
Tropical Storm Dexter forms off the U.S. Coast - Tropical Storm Dexter formed northwest of Bermuda on August 4, 2025, as the fourth named Storm of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season. Tropical Storm Dexter formed over the western Atlantic at around 03:00 UTC on August 4 (11:00 AST on August 3), according to the National Hurricane Center (NHC). At 15:00 UTC (11:00 AST) on August 4, Dexter’s center was located approximately 400 km (250 miles) northwest of Bermuda. It had maximum sustained winds of 75 km/h (45 mph) with higher gusts and was moving NE at 22 km/h (14 mph) with minimum central pressure of 1 002 hPa. Ad ends in 7 Tropical-storm-force winds were extending up to 165 km (105 miles) from the center. Dexter remains a weak tropical storm, affected by moderate vertical wind shear. Satellite imagery shows its low-level center is partially exposed. Forecast models suggest Dexter will continue moving toward the north-northeast over the next several days. While some short-term intensification is possible, environmental conditions, particularly increasing wind shear and dry air, are expected to limit significant strengthening. There is a low probability of the system gaining additional strength through interaction with an upper-level trough. However, most numerical models do not support this scenario. According to the NHC’s forecast track, the system is expected to remain over the open ocean, passing north of Bermuda and away from the U.S. East Coast.
Tropical Storm Ivo triggers severe floods in Nayarit and Veracruz, Mexico - (videos) Tropical Storm Ivo brought heavy rainfall and severe flooding to parts of western and southern Mexico on August 7, 2025, causing widespread damage in Nayarit and Veracruz and injuring two people in Durango. Rainfall rates of up to 100 mm (3.94 inches) per hour were recorded in parts of Tepic, capital of Nayarit, between 15:30 and 16:20 LT on August 7. Around 43 mm (1.69 inches) was recorded in Los Sauces, east of Tepic, during this period, while 40 mm (1.57 inches) was recorded in downtown Tepic and 28 mm (1.10 inches) near Universidad Autónoma de Nayarit (UAD). Residential areas including Ciudad del Valle, Gobernadores, Oriental, Comerciantes, Hermosa Provincia, Morelos, Caja de Agua, Jacarandas, and Villas de Cantera reported water entering homes. In Jacarandas and Villas de Cantera, an overflowing canal worsened flooding impacts. In Milpillas, Pueblo Nuevo municipality, Durango, heavy rain caused a tree to collapse, injuring two people — a 33-year-old woman and a 9-year-old girl. Both were hospitalized in Durango City and remain in stable condition. In Mazatlán, strong currents swept away two children after heavy rainfall. Fortunately, both children were successfully rescued and were safe. In southern Veracruz, Tropical Wave No. 20 combined with moisture from Ivo to cause the Coatzacoalcos River to overflow, inundating multiple rural communities. These include Lázaro Cárdenas, El Halcón, Paso de los Indios, San Lorenzo Tenochtitlán, Morelos, Peña Blanca, Xochitepec, Ixtepec, Camelias, and Villalta. A sinkhole opened on the Copal bridge, which connected these communities, isolating them and hampering rescue operations. According to the advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center at 02:00 MST (09:00 UTC) on August 8, Ivo was located approximately 290 km (180 miles) south-southeast of the southern tip of Baja California. Maximum sustained winds reached 95 km/h (59 mph). Estimated minimum central was 1 001 hPa as the storm moved west-north-west at 34 km/h (21 mph).
FEMA staff reassigned to ICE as hurricane season heats up - The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) is temporarily transferring personnel from the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) just ahead of the peak of hurricane season as it seeks to speed hiring for immigration officers. DHS is detailing roughly 100 people from FEMA’s human resources and security teams to help process applicants at U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) amid a bid to hire 10,000 extra officers. “Under President Trump’s leadership and through the One Big Beautiful Bill, DHS is adopting an all-hands-on-deck strategy to recruit 10,000 new ICE agents. To support this effort, select FEMA employees will temporarily be detailed to ICE for 90 days to assist with hiring and vetting,” DHS said in a statement. “Their deployment will NOT disrupt FEMA’s critical operations. FEMA remains fully prepared for Hurricane Season.” The Washington Post first reported the move, which it said would impact roughly half of FEMA’s human resources team. It’s not unusual for departments to detail employees from one agency to another, and ICE has previously helped with hurricane response. But usually such assignments are voluntary and not in the weeks when hurricane season is expected to accelerate. FEMA’s human resources staff in particular serve a critical role alongside its security staff as the agency looks to swiftly hire local staff to respond to disasters./p>
Natural disasters caused $135 bn in economic losses in first half of 2025: Swiss Re -Natural disasters caused $135 billion in economic losses globally in the first half of 2025, fueled by the Los Angeles wildfires, reinsurer Swiss Re said Wednesday. Swiss Re, which serves as an insurer of insurance companies, said first half losses were up from the $123 billion in the first half of 2024. The Zurich-based reinsurance giant estimated that of this year's first half losses, $80 billion had been insured—almost double the 10-year average, in 2025 prices. The Los Angeles blazes in January constitute the largest-ever insured wildfire loss event by far, reaching an estimated $40 billion, said Swiss Re. It said the "exceptional loss severity" of the fires was down to prolonged winds, a lack of rainfall and "some of the densest concentration of high-value single-family residential property in the US". Swiss Re said losses from wildfires had risen sharply over the past decade due to rising temperatures, more frequent droughts and changing rainfall patterns—plus greater suburban sprawl and high-value asset concentration. "Most fire losses originate in the US and particularly in California, where expansion in hazardous regions has been high," it said. Before 2015, wildfire-related insured losses made up around 1% of all natural catastrophe claims, but now account for 7%. Insured losses from severe thunderstorms amounted to $31 billion in the first half of 2025. The second half of the year is usually more costly for insurers due to damage during the North Atlantic hurricane season. If current loss trends continue, global insured losses from natural catastrophes in 2025 could exceed the Swiss Re Institute's projections of $150 billion. "The strongest lever to increase the resilience and safety of communities is to double down on mitigation and adaptation. It's here that everyone can help reduce losses before they occur," said Swiss Re's group chief economist Jerome Haegeli. "While mitigation and adaptation measures come at a price, our research shows that, for example, flood protection measures such as dykes, dams and flood gates are up to 10 times more cost-effective than rebuilding." The March earthquake in Myanmar figured among the major natural disasters in the first six months of the year, with the tremors felt in neighboring Thailand, India, and China. In Thailand alone, insured losses reached $1.5 billion. Overall, while natural disasters caused $135 billion in economic losses in the first half of 2025, man-made disasters—which include industrial accidents—caused another $8 billion in losses, of which $7 billion were insured losses.
Krasheninnikov volcano erupts for the first time in 600 years, linked to Kamchatka M8.8 earthquake, Russia - (videos) The Krasheninnikov volcano erupted for the first time in 600 year on August 3, 2025, sending an ash plume 6 km (19 700 feet) into the sky. Scientists suggest that the eruption might have been linked to the M8.8 earthquake that struck the Kamchatka peninsula on July 30. “This is the first historically confirmed eruption of Krasheninnikov volcano in 600 years,” said Olga Girina, head of the Kamchatka Volcanic Eruption Response Team (KVERT). On the Telegram channel of the Institute of Volcanology and Seismology, Girina stated that Krasheninnikov’s last known lava effusion occurred in 1463, with a margin of ±40 years, and no eruptions have been recorded since. Initially, KVERT reported ash plumes reaching an altitude of 3–4 km (9 850–13 100 feet) above sea level (a.s.l.). However, subsequent reports from the Kamchatka branch of Russia’s Ministry of Emergency Situations (EMERCOM) stated that the plume reached an altitude of 6 km (19 700 feet) a.s.l. The ash plume was observed drifting eastward over the Pacific Ocean. Although there are no populated areas in its path, the aviation color code for the volcano was raised to yellow due to elevated risk to aircraft flying in the region.
Southern Kamchatka shifted 2 m (6.6 feet) during M8.8 earthquake on July 29, 2025 - Preliminary data from KBGSRAS shows that the southern part of the Kamchatka Peninsula shifted southeastward by nearly 2 m (6.6 feet) after M8.8 earthquake on July 29. Preliminary geodynamic calculations by the Kamchatka Branch of the Geophysical Survey of the Russian Academy of Sciences (KBGSRAS) indicate significant coseismic deformation across the Kamchatka Peninsula following tsunami-producing M8.8 Kamchatka earthquake at 23:24 UTC on July 29 2025. Maximum horizontal ground displacements were recorded in the southern part of the peninsula, where shifts reached nearly 2 m (6.6 feet) in the southeastward direction. According to KBGSRAS, the displacements are comparable in scale to those observed during the 2011 M9.1 Tōhoku earthquake in Japan. The Petropavlovsk cluster of GNSS stations, including Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky, experienced measurable but lower levels of displacement. The pattern of motion is consistent with a preliminary fault slip model that places the highest coseismic slip on the southern flank of the rupture zone. This distribution corresponds with observed macroseismic intensity, which was notably stronger in Severo-Kurilsk and weaker in Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky. coseismic deformation across kamchatka peninsula russia after m8-8 earthquake on july 29 2025 Southern Kamchatka shifted 2 m (6.6 feet) during M8.8 earthquake of July 29, 2025. The direction of motion across the peninsula generally indicates southeastward displacement of crustal blocks, in line with the regional tectonic stress regime and subduction zone geometry. Further modeling, including InSAR and postseismic GNSS analysis, is expected to refine the rupture characteristics and ground deformation field. The M8.8 quake was preceded by multiple strong foreshocks, including M7.4 and three M6.6 on July 20, and followed by more than 420 earthquakes, with 9 above M6.
Klyuchevskoy volcano enters high-hazard phase, paroxysmal eruption forecast within 72 hours - --Eruptive activity at Klyuchevskoy volcano intensified after M 8.8 earthquake on July 29, 2025, with a large lava flow descending the WSW flank, continuous lava fountaining, and a significant ash plume. Based on volcanic tremor data and current eruptive behavior, a paroxysmal eruption is forecast at Klyuchevskoy volcano, Kamchatka Peninsula, within the next three days following a sharp twofold increase in volcanic tremor recorded shortly after M8.8 earthquake struck Avacha Bay on July 29. Klyuchevskoy volcano has been in a summit explosive-effusive eruption phase since April 20 and is currently ejecting incandescent fragments up to 500 m (1 640 feet) above the crater rim and producing an ash column reaching approximately 8 km (26 200 feet) above sea level. Lava flows are advancing down the southwestern slope toward the Bogdanovich Glacier basin, triggering rapid glacial melt. The resulting meltwater is generating powerful mudflows that are sweeping through surrounding terrain. The situation has increased significantly since July 25, when the first lava flows appeared, and particularly after the large-magnitude earthquake. One of the major infrastructural failures includes the destruction of a dam built in 2023 on the Studenaya River. The river is now flowing through both of its natural channels, increasing downstream flooding risk. Volcanologists consider the current tremor profile and eruptive behavior to be highly similar to those preceding previous paroxysmal eruptions of Klyuchevskoy on October 1, 1994, October 20, 2013, and October 31, 2023. Those events were characterized by ash columns reaching up to 12 km (39 400 feet) a.s.l., multi-kilometer lava flows, and extensive mudflows caused by glacier melt. Infrastructure damage was reported as far as 60 km (37 miles) from the summit.
Small earthquake shakes New Jersey and New York City - A magnitude 3 earthquake struck the New York City metropolitan area on Saturday evening, according to the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS). The USGS said the earthquake occurred at 10:18 p.m. local time near Hasbrouck Heights, N.J., which is about 7 miles directly west of Harlem in New York City. Magnitude 3 earthquakes are often felt but do not typically cause damage. Social media users were quick to describe their experiences. “I AM FINE,” a post on the social platform X read from the Empire State Building account. The earthquake did not occur near a plate boundary; rather, it resulted from faulting at shallow depths in the crust, according to the USGS.
Asteroid 2025 PU flew past Earth at just 0.14 LD on August 2 - A newly discovered asteroid designated 2025 PU flew past Earth at a distance of just 0.14 LD (0.00035 AU / 53 000 km / 33 000 miles) from the center of our planet at 21:42 UTC on August 2, 2025. This is the 83rd known asteroid to fly past Earth within 1 lunar distance since the start of the year and the first so far this month. Asteroid 2025 PU was first observed at NASA/JPL SynTrack Robotic Telescope in Auberry on August 3 — about 10 hours before it was discovered. The object belongs to the Apollo group of asteroids and has an estimated diameter between 2.1 and 4.8 m (6.9–15.7 feet). It flew past us at a relative speed of 10.5 km/s (37 800 km/h or 23 500 mph).
CME modeling suggests glancing blow to Earth from M4.4 flare produced by AR 4168 - -- A moderately strong M4.4 solar flare erupted from Active Region 4168 at 15:53 UTC on August 5, 2025, producing a coronal mass ejection (CME). Initial modeling indicates most of the material was directed ahead of Earth’s orbit, with a glancing blow or shock arrival possible by late August 8. The event was produced by geoeffective Active Region 4168 and was associated with a 200 pfu Tenflare, a Type II radio emission with estimated velocity of 865 km/s as well as Type IV radio emissions, suggesting a strong coronal mass ejection (CME) was produced. Initial analysis of the coronagraph data indicated the possibility of more than one CME, as a western limb eruption followed in close succession. Modeling suggests the bulk of the ejected material was directed ahead of Earth’s orbit. However, due to the proximity of the source region to the solar central meridian, a glancing blow or shock arrival at Earth remains possible. SWPC forecasters anticipate potential impact by late August 8, although the scenario carries low confidence due to trajectory uncertainties. Solar activity is expected to remain moderate with a high chance for minor to moderate M-class flares and a slight chance for R3 – Strong through August 8. Region 4168 remains the primary driver of enhanced flare probabilities due to its magnetic complexity and recent activity.
G2 – Moderate geomagnetic storm watch issued for August 8, 2025 - A G2 – Moderate geomagnetic storm watch is in effect for August 8, 2025, due to an incoming coronal mass ejection (CME) and co-rotating interaction region from a coronal hole in the Sun’s southern hemisphere. A G2 – Moderate geomagnetic storm watch has been issued by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) for August 8, 2025. The watch is followed by a G1 – Minor storm watch on August 9. The alert is based on forecasts predicting the arrival of a coronal mass ejection (CME) associated with an M4.4 solar flare that erupted at 15:53 UTC on August 5. The CME is expected to arrive during the first half of August 8, accompanied by a co-rotating interaction region (CIR) originating from a large southern hemisphere coronal hole. This combined solar wind structure is forecast to enhance interplanetary magnetic field strength, density, and speed, triggering geomagnetic storm conditions. The area of expected impact is primarily poleward of 55° geomagnetic latitude. Anticipated effects include possible power grid fluctuations, particularly in high-latitude power systems where voltage alarms may be triggered. Satellite operations may be affected by orientation irregularities and increased drag on low Earth orbit satellites. High frequency (HF) radio propagation may experience degradation at higher latitudes. Auroral activity could extend farther south than usual, potentially becoming visible as far south as New York, Wisconsin, and Washington state in the United States. Solar activity is expected to continue at moderate levels with a high chance for M-class flares (55%), and a slight chance for X-class (10%) through August 9. Higher probabilities are being driven by the complexity and current activity of Region 4168.
Climate change melts nearly 25% of glaciers on pristine sub-Antarctic island - Almost a quarter of the glaciers in one of the world's last pristine ecosystems have melted from climate change, according to new research from Monash University. The finding has scientists reiterating calls for decisive climate action as they brace for devastating consequences to biodiversity on Heard Island, a sub-Antarctic island and Australian external territory about 4,100 kilometers southwest of Perth. The research, undertaken by Monash University–led Australian Research Council (ARC) research center Securing Antarctica's Environmental Future (SAEF), and published in the journal The Cryosphere, found that about 64 square kilometers, or 23.1%, of the icy landscape has been lost since 1947. "These findings are a bellwether of change for our global climate system," Dr. Tielidze said. "While Heard Island is just about as remote as it's possible to be on Earth, it has still suffered profound consequences from climate warming, which is almost certainly due to rising greenhouse gas emissions in the 20th and 21st centuries. "The island's location in the Southern Ocean makes it a key part of the global climate system and an important indicator of the planet's health, so the changes we are observing paint a really clear and concerning picture." With much of Heard Island understudied due to the challenges of reaching and traversing the remote terrain, the Monash researchers used topographical maps from 1947 and satellite imagery from historical and current Earth observation platforms to study the island. The resulting glacier inventory catalogs 29 glaciers, tracing their outlines in 1947, 1988 and 2019. It also documents key morphological features, including area, slope, aspect and elevation, providing data for estimating mass balance, glacier volume, surface velocity and the impact of volcanic and other surface debris. Heard Island is a UNESCO World Heritage-listed site located about 1,700 kilometers north of Antarctica. It is 61% covered in ice and dominated by an active volcano, Big Ben, with an official height of 2,745 meters, although recent studies suggest it has grown to more than 2,800 meters. The island recently made headlines when U.S. President Donald Trump imposed a 10% tariff on it and nearby McDonald Island, despite no trade occurring there and no human visits since 2016.
Black carbon emissions have been underestimated in the 'global south' - Black carbon, the sooty byproduct of incomplete combustion of fossil fuels, has emerged as a major contributor to climate change and human health impacts. Researchers in the McKelvey School of Engineering at Washington University in St. Louis have used a variety of models to take on the challenging task of measuring ambient concentrations of black carbon in the "global south" and found that estimates of these harmful emissions have been grossly underestimated.Yuxuan Ren, a doctoral student in the lab of Randall Martin, the Raymond R. Tucker Distinguished Professor at McKelvey Engineering, led a study characterizing black carbon based on measurements from the Surface Particulate Matter Network (SPARTAN), a global measurement network led by McKelvey Engineering.Ren focused on black carbon concentrations in the air in the "global south," a loosely defined group of developing countries in Africa, Asia, Latin America and the Caribbean. The researchers found black carbon concentrations in low- and middle-income areas across the "global south" to be underestimated by about 38%. The paper is published in the journal Nature Communications."There are different burning activities in this region, such as household burning of wood and charcoal for cooking and heating," Ren said. ."The greatest underestimations fell in several regions: Dhaka, Bangladesh, where burning of agricultural waste, crop residue, fuel wood and cow dung, as well as poorly regulated brick kilns, contributes to black carbon emissions; Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, where black carbon emissions come from diesel-fueled heavy-duty vehicles and burning wood for fuel; Ilorin, Nigeria, which has a poorly regulated oil and gas exploitation infrastructure; Mexico City; Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates; Bujumbura, Burundi, where there is dependence on diesel-fueled generators and kerosene; and Kanpur, India.Ren noted the underestimation at these sites has global relevance."The widespread two- to four-fold underestimation in black carbon across sites in Bangladesh, Ethiopia, Nigeria and Mexico suggests that the radiative effect and health impacts of black carbon may be larger than previously expected, which highlights the continued importance of black carbon mitigation efforts with potential benefits for both climate and health that warrant further investigation," she said.
US Energy Department misrepresents climate science in new report -Top scientists told AFP Thursday their research cited in a flagship climate report by the US Department of Energy (DoE) was misused to downplay the role of human activity in global warming. The document released July 29 outlines the Trump administration's rationale for revoking a foundational scientific ruling that underpins the government's authority to combat climate change. The paper was written by a working group including John Christy and Judith Curry, who have both in the past been linked to The Heartland Institute, an advocacy group that frequently pushes back against the scientific consensus on climate change. It "completely misrepresents my work," Benjamin Santer, atmospheric scientist and honorary professor in the School of Environmental Sciences at the University of East Anglia in Britain, told AFP. Santer said a section of the report on "stratospheric cooling" contradicted his findings while citing his research on climate "fingerprinting," a scientific method that seeks to separate human and natural climate change, as evidence for its analysis. AFP and other media, including NOTUS, a US digital news website affiliated with the nonprofit Allbritton Journalism Institute, found inaccurate citations, flawed analysis and editorial errors across the document. This is the third time since January, when Donald Trump took office, that scientists have told AFP a government agency has misrepresented academic work to defend their policies. Previous instances included made up citations in the government's "Make America Healthy Again" report, which the administration then rushed to edit. "I am concerned that a government agency has published a report, which is intended to inform the public and guide policy, without undergoing a rigorous peer-review process, while misinterpreting many studies that have been peer-reviewed," Bor-Ting Jong, an assistant professor at the Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam in the Netherlands, told AFP. Jong said the paper made false statements about the climate model her team examined and used different terminology that led to a flawed analysis of her findings. James Rae, a climate researcher at the University of St Andrews in Scotland, who said his work is also misrepresented in the report, told AFP the shift in how the department uses scientific research "is really chilling." "DoE was at the forefront of science for decades. Whereas this report reads like an undergraduate exercise in misrepresenting climate science," he said. Contacted by AFP, a DoE spokesperson said the report was reviewed internally by a group of scientific researchers and policy experts from the Office of Science and National Labs. The public will now have the opportunity to comment on the document before it is finalized for the Federal Register.
Pennsylvania Democrats Support Fracking…for Geothermal Energy -- Marcellus Drilling News -- Three members of the Pennsylvania State House of Representatives, Arvind Venkat (Democrat from Allegheny County), Elizabeth Fiedler (Democrat from Philadelphia), and Craig Williams (Republican from Delaware/Chester counties, Philly suburbs) are planning to introduce legislation to “establish regulatory clarity” to encourage the development of Enhanced Geothermal Systems in Pennsylvania. There’s a lot to unpack in that opening statement. First, this is a bipartisan effort. Second, they want to encourage more geothermal energy development in the state. When you understand that Enhanced Geothermal Systems (EGS) uses the same method of fracking used for natural gas and oil well drilling, it makes this bipartisan effort a real eye-opener.
Trump cracks down on renewable energy - The Trump administration is putting up a series of new barriers for renewable energy projects — following through on an apparent promise to hard-line conservatives while rankling moderate Republicans.The moves are expected to create issues for the renewable energy industry, ones critics argue could raise power prices.“If you’re a rational Republican senator who wants to keep the lights on [and] keep electricity affordable, these are terrible policies,” said Leah Stokes, an environmental politics professor at the University of California, Santa Barbara.President Trump’s tax and spending megabill slashed incentives for wind and solar energy that were part of the Democrats’ 2022 Inflation Reduction Act, which is expected to significantly stifle the build-out of the growing industry.And in recent weeks, his administration has taken further actions to hamper wind and solar power. Shortly after the bill passed, Trump directed the Treasury Department to take a strict approach in limiting which projects are eligible for the remaining tax credits. The Interior Department also recently announced it would subject wind and solar projects to an elevated review process — a move that was expected to slow down their approvals. These reviews would pertain not only to wind and solar farm approvals but also include a wide range of activities such as grants and assessments of endangered species impacts.
Another Burgum order coldcocks solar and wind - An order issued late Friday by Interior Secretary Doug Burgum that targets wind and solar development has left renewable energy developers and industry observers scrambling to determine whether green energy has any future in the Trump administration.Burgum’s secretarial order requires that Interior agencies evaluating new onshore solar and wind project proposals, as well as offshore wind projects, consider “capacity density,” or how much area the projects cover.Commercial-scale solar and wind projects typically require a much greater amount of land and water than other sources, specifically oil and natural gas or nuclear power. In the case of federal land, that means they essentially “tie up” large swaths of acreage, raising the question of whether solar and wind could meet the interpretation of the Bureau of Land Management’s multiple-use mandate offered in Burgum’s order.“Based on common sense, arithmetic, and physics, wind and solar projects are highly inefficient uses of Federal lands,” Burgum said in a statement accompanying the order. “Thus, when there are reasonable alternatives that can generate the same amount of or more energy on far less Federal land, wind and solar projects may unnecessarily and unduly degrade Federal lands.” That could place into doubt the future of an estimated 35 solar projects and three wind projects proposed on federal lands that are awaiting action in the permitting pipeline. The order from Burgum is one of a succession of actions taken by the Interior Department under President Donald Trump that likely restrict solar and wind development, including requiring that the Interior secretary personally approve each project.On Monday, the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM), which is part of Interior, followed up on the Burgum order by rescinding requirements that the department publish a five-year schedule of anticipated offshore renewable energy lease sales every two years.In its announcement, BOEM said Interior had determined the regulation “unnecessarily limits the Secretary’s discretion over scheduling renewable lease sales.”Burgum’s latest order “is yet another attempt by the administration to kneecap the clean energy transition by targeting wind and solar projects that are already well into the approval process,” said Justin Meuse, government relations director for climate and energy at the Wilderness Society. “This is toxic behavior — clearly designed to drive wind and solar developers off public lands while further rigging the system in favor of oil, gas, and coal leasing and speculation.”An Interior spokesperson declined to comment beyond what Burgum said Friday in announcing his order.Even projects that have already been approved, such as the Rough Hat Clark Solar Project in southern Nevada that BLM approved just days before President Joe Biden left office in January, could be in doubt.A spokesperson for San Francisco-based Candela Renewables, the developer of the project that would have a capacity to power about 120,000 homes, says they are still trying to determine what the order means as far as moving forward to construction.
Arizonans, buckling under high power bills, brace for megalaw --- The residents of Lake Havasu City, near Arizona’s western border, knew their electricity bills would go up.Their utility — UniSource — had gotten approval from state regulators for its first rate increase in seven years to take effect in 2024. The projected $14 monthly bump was designed to cover the much-needed cost of upgrading infrastructure and building a cleaner grid to deliver more power to more people in increasingly hot summers.But when residents started seeing triple-digit increases on their summertime bills, Mayor Cal Sheehy thought there must be a problem. A movie theater’s $12,500 bill for just one month of power made the front page of the local newspaper.“We have some of our citizens who are making choices between paying utility bills and buying groceries and medications,” said Sheehy, who has served in the nonpartisan office since 2018.Those hefty bills — which UniSource has said reflects seasonality and how individuals use electricity, not improper rates — have captured the attention of state officials, including the attorney general. But they’re just one example of an issue that’s become a political flashpoint in Arizona. Across the state, residents complain of high electricity prices, and the state has seen dozens of reports of people who have died in their homes because they either turned off air conditioning or set it to a dangerously high temperature to avoid expensive bills.It’s not likely to abate any time soon. The GOP megalaw signed by President Donald Trump last month is forecast to raise electricity prices by slashing development of new, low-cost wind and solar power and instead keeping aging coal and gas plants open.The true effects won’t be known for years and will vary across the country, but an analysis by Princeton University estimates that annual energy costs could increase an average of $165 per household by 2030 and $280 by 2035. Separate estimates by Energy Innovation forecast a 25 percent increase in wholesale electricity prices by 2030 compared to current policies, resulting in household electricity rates that are between 9 and 18 percent higher by 2035. “In a world without this bill, we’d see more new technology come onto the grid and make it more efficient to reel back in some of that inflation. But instead, we’ve got a bill where you strangle and restrict the technologies of the future.”In Arizona, cutting clean energy taxes could result in a 12.7 percent increase in electricity bills to households and 4.7 percent to businesses between 2026 and 2032, according to a report from NERA Economic Consulting released by the Clean Energy Buyers Association. That report, which was done before the final OBBBA language was released, found that the result would be a $340 annual loss in household income for Arizonans.The state represents much of what ails the nation’s electric grid. A surge of data centers and manufacturing plants is driving up industrial demand. Homeowners are cranking up air conditioning to deal with increasingly hot summers where temperatures regularly sit in the triple digits. And the region’s aging coal plants — like the Navajo Generating Station and the massive Cholla Power Plant — are closing as they become too costly to retrofit, requiring new generation to be built.Already the state’s largest electric utilities set peak demand records this summer. Arizona Public Service, the largest utility, says it could see peak demand jump 60 percent by 2038.
Michigan coal plant tests Trump’s commitment to fossil energy – The Department of Energy faces a monumental decision this month over the future of a Michigan coal plant. What it decides could forecast how far President Donald Trump is willing to go to save the U.S. coal industry.DOE used its emergency authority in May to order a Michigan utility to continue operating a 63-year-old coal plant it had planned on retiring. But that order is set to expire Aug. 21, raising questions about whether the Trump administration will issue an extension or allow the plant to retire.The department has not announced its plans, but industry observers are closely watching its decision for clues on how it could affect other facilities. The J.H. Campbell plant, located in Ottawa County, west of Grand Rapids, is among eight coal plants, three oil plants and two gas plants set to retire this year, according to federal data.Energy Secretary Chris Wright argues the country can ill afford to let fossil fuel facilities close at a time when electricity demand is growing rapidly. Coal interests have echoed that belief, and they point to federal data showing that two of Campbell’s three turbines were running hard during a June heat wave as evidence the Michigan coal plant is still needed.“We commend the DOE for prioritizing reliability and taking material steps to enhance the resilience of our grid in tandem with EPA and the entire Administration,” said Michelle Bloodworth, the president of America’s Power, a trade group representing coal interests.But in using the Federal Power Act to force Campbell to stay open, Wright has set up a legal battle with the administration’s critics, who say he is abusing his emergency powers to further the administration’s political agenda. Section 202(c) of the Federal Power Act gives the Energy secretary broad authority to make power plants run during emergencies.Michigan’s attorney general filed a lawsuit last month seeking to overturn Wright’s order to keep the Campbell plant open, arguing that it is unnecessary and costly to ratepayers because Campbell’s owner already had lined up new power plants to replace the aging coal facility. They argue DOE’s decisions have saddled consumers with paying for a power plant that is not needed, and worry Campbell could be precursor for more federal intervention.
NASA Wants To Put a Nuclear Reactor on the Moon -NASA is accelerating plans to set up a nuclear reactor to the Moon by the end of the decade, to power bases there and help America be the first nation to have an energy base powered by 24/7 nuclear power on the Moon and win the “second space race” with Russia and China. Back in 2020, NASA was planning to build a base and a nuclear power plant on the Moon by 2026 and invited proposals from companies ready to take on the challenge. The timeline has long lapsed, but NASA isn’t giving up, all the more so that Russia and China have announced on several occasions intentions to put up nuclear reactors on the Moon, too. Last year, the head of Russia’s space agency Roscosmos said that Russia is considering a nuclear power plant installation on the moon starting between 2033 and 2035. Russia—along with China—is considering the idea of placing a nuclear power plant on the moon over the next decade or so, and the two countries have been working together on a lunar program for nuclear space energy.“Today we are seriously considering a project—somewhere at the turn of 2033-2035—to deliver and install a power unit on the lunar surface together with our Chinese colleagues,” Yuri Borisov, head of Roscosmos, said in March 2024. Now NASA wants to beat the Russia-China venture and have a nuclear reactor on the Moon by 2030. U.S. Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy, who is also the interim NASA administrator, announced this weekaccelerated plans to have nuclear energy power future bases on the Moon, POLITICO reported first earlier this week. “We’re in a race to the moon, in a race with China to the moon,” Duffy said during a news conference this week. “And to have a base on the moon, we need energy.” It remains to be seen how soon and how feasible such an effort would be, and who will win the space race for setting up 24/7 energy to power future bases on the Moon, and, at some point in the more distant future, on Mars.
Public land near Stillwater Creek in Tuscarawas County targeted for fracking - Cat Adams, Save Ohio Parks - An unknown oil and gas company just submitted a new nomination to frack under public land in Ohio. This time, they’re targeting land owned by the Ohio Department of Transportation – which means that they want to drill under our highways to extract oil and gas. This nomination is for approximately 7 acres along State Route 800 in Tuscarawas County. Across the highway, and less than 150 feet away from this proposed fracking site, lies Stillwater Creek. Over 10,000 people depend on drinking water from surface waters in the Stillwater Creek watershed – including the residents of Cadiz, who haven’t had access to safe drinking water since late June for unrelated reasons. Studies have shown that fracking near public water sources increases the presence of dangerous chemical contaminants in the drinking water. Fracking on this land would pose a serious threat to these communities' water quality, which is already compromised. Tell the Oil and Gas Land Management Commission: Ohioans do not support the leasing of our public lands for fracking. Please visit the Nomination Comment Form, choose Nomination #25-DNR-0009, and submit a public comment telling the Commission you OPPOSE this nomination.
Ascent 2Q Drilled 18 Wells, Produced 2 Bcfe/d, Made $467M Profit -- Marcellus Drilling News -- Ascent Resources, founded as American Energy Partners by gas legend Aubrey McClendon, is a privately held company focusing 100% on the Ohio Utica Shale. Ascent, headquartered in Oklahoma City, OK, is Ohio’s largest natural gas producer and one of the largest natural gas producers in the U.S. The company issued its first quarter 2025 update yesterday. Net production for the quarter averaged 2,034 MMcfe/d (2.0 Bcfe/d), consisting of 1,738 MMcf/d of natural gas, 13,033 bbls/d of oil, and 36,385 bbls/d of natural gas liquids (NGLs), putting liquids at 15% of the overall production mix for the quarter.
Gulfport Spending $100M to Lease More OH Land in Belmont, Monroe -- Marcellus Drilling News -- Gulfport Energy is the third-largest driller in the Ohio Utica Shale (by the number of wells drilled). The company emerged from bankruptcy four years ago with a new board and new management in May 2021 (see Gulfport Energy Emerges from Bankruptcy w/New Board, CEO/CFO Gone). Later in 2021, the rumors began to swirl that Gulfport was looking to sell itself (see Big News: OH Utica Driller Gulfport Energy Looking to Sell Itself). Those rumors have long since expired. The company recovered and has done great since that time. Gulfport CEO John Reinhart said during yesterday’s quarterly update that the company is planning to spend up to $100 million in the coming months to lease more Utica acreage, primarily in Belmont but also a little in Monroe counties in Ohio.
Gulfport Energy to Spend $100M on Acreage Acquisitions, Boosts Share Repurchase Program Amid 8% Production Growth -Gulfport Energy plans to spend up to $100 million on discretionary acreage acquisitions, marking its highest leasehold spend in over six years. The company also expanded its share repurchase program amid an 8% increase in production. Gulfport Energy Corporation (GPOR) has outlined a significant strategic shift with plans to allocate up to $100 million for discretionary acreage acquisitions in the coming months, marking the highest leasehold spend in over six years. This initiative is aimed at securing future drilling opportunities and extending the company's inventory runway in the Utica Shale [1]. President and CEO John K. Reinhart announced the increased spending, along with a 50% expansion of the share repurchase program. Additionally, the company plans to redeem all outstanding preferred stock to accelerate share repurchases and simplify its capital structure [1].Gulfport Energy's second quarter of 2025 saw an 8% increase in production, with average daily production reaching 1.006 billion cubic feet equivalent per day. The company also reported strong financial results, including adjusted EBITDA of approximately $212 million and adjusted free cash flow of $64.6 million. Net cash provided by operating activities before changes in working capital totaled approximately $198 million [1]. The company's outlook for the full year remains cautious, with total net production expected to trend toward the low end of previously stated production guidance due to midstream outages and constraints. However, these production impacts have largely been resolved or are being actively mitigated. The company expects adjusted free cash flow to accelerate and financial momentum to increase over the second half of 2025 [1].Analysts maintain a strong buy consensus on the stock, with a potential upside of 33% based on their target prices. The company's strategic initiatives in its Utica and SCOOP basins have been highlighted as key drivers for growth and capital allocation [2].
$10m natural gas pipeline to supply onsite fuel cell facility at Ohio data center – DCD --Aspire Energy Express, the Ohio subsidiary of Chesapeake Utilities, has partnered with American Electric Power (AEP) to build and operate an intrastate natural gas pipeline to serve a fuel cell facility set to power a data center behind-the-meter.The new natural gas pipeline will cost approximately $10 million to build and is expected to be operational in the first half of 2027."This project is a clear example of how Chesapeake Utilities Corporation continues to execute on our growth strategy by leveraging our core capabilities," said Jeff Sylvester, senior vice president and chief operating officer of Chesapeake Utilities Corporation.Aspire Energy was founded in 2020, and is wholly owned by Chesapeake. It operates as an intrastate pipeline company within the Ohio market. Chesapeake is a natural gas company that operates primarily across the Mid-Atlantic, Southeast, and Midwest regions. According to its website, the company has more than 2,100 miles of natural gas distribution mains, distributing natural gas to more than 110,000 residential, commercial, and industrial customers.While not confirmed, the natural gas pipeline is likely to serve a Bloom Energy fuel cell facility. In November, Bloom signed a supply agreement with AEP for up to 1GW of power to supply AI data center sites across Ohio. Bloom agreed to supply an initial 100MW of cells, with an expansion order expected in 2025. Bloom is a solid oxide fuel cell (SOFCs) developer. SOFCs are electrochemical devices that can convert the chemical energy of a fuel - such as hydrogen or natural gas - into electric energy, using a solid oxide as the electrolyte. SOFCs, especially when run on hydrogen, offer much lower carbon emissions. In addition, due to their high operating temperature, they can also be used for heating, cooling, or other industrial processes. Bloom is by far the biggest player in the data center market. Last month, the company signed a deal with Oracle to deploy fuel cells onsite at several data centers in the US. The company has also signed deals with Equinix, CoreWeave, and Quanta. However, last year it saw a deal with Amazon Web Services fall through.
Sugarcreek residents evacuated after crash caused 'major gas leak' - (WJW) – Some residents in the village of Sugarcreek in Tuscarawas County were urged to evacuate after a “major gas leak” on Wednesday evening. According to Sugarcreek Fire and Rescue, State Route 39 was shut down in the area of Main Street after a two-vehicle crash. There were no injuries, but according to fire officials, one vehicle was sitting on top of a gas line that’s connected to a residence. Residents within three blocks of the gas leak were urged to evacuate the area. Fire officials said 20 residences and three businesses were evacuated. Around 8 p.m., Enbridge crews shut off the gas and residents were told they could start returning home roughly an hour later.
Ohio’s Orphan Well Program Plugged >1,200 Wells Last 5 Years -- Marcellus Drilling News -- Something is clearly wrong in Pennsylvania. Over the past three years, PA has plugged a little over 300 old orphaned (no current owner) wells (see PA Gov Shapiro Puffs His Chest to Announce Plugging 300 Old Wells). During the same period, Ohio plugged over 700 old wells. Why can OH plug nearly twice as many wells as PA in the same period? The Ohio Department of Natural Resources (ODNR) reports it has plugged over 1,200 wells in the last five years! OH is leaving PA behind in the proverbial dust.
Shell Looks to Sell All or Part of Monaca, PA Ethane Cracker Plant -- Marcellus Drilling News -- Back in March, the Wall Street Journal reported that Shell is “exploring a potential sale of its chemicals assets in Europe and the U.S.,” which includes the recently completed Monaca (Beaver County, PA) ethane cracker complex (see Shocker: Shell Considers Selling Beaver County, PA Ethane Cracker). It looks like the rumors were right. Last week on an earnings call with analysts, Shell CEO Wael Sawan said, concerning the Monaca cracker, that Shell is “not the natural operator and owner of that asset.”
Range Appeals Cecil Township Frack-Ban-by-Setback to County Court -- Marcellus Drilling News -- Last November, three of five supervisors in Cecil Township (Washington County), PA, voted to ban all new fracking in the town via a new setback (distance from well to nearest structure) requirement of 2,500 feet (see Cecil Twp Supervisors Pull the Trigger on Frack Ban Via Setbacks). We said at the time, “Let the lawsuits begin.” And so they did. Range Resources, the only driller in Cecil Township with wells or permits to drill, filed a “Substantive Validity Challenge” to the ordinance that the Township Zoning Hearing Board heard. The Hearing Board voted 2-0 in June to dismiss the challenge, leaving the 2,500-foot setback requirement in place (see Cecil Twp Board Votes to Dismiss Challenge of 2,500-Ft Setback). Range recently appealed the dismissal to the Washington County Court of Common Pleas.
Pennsylvania’s FracTracker Alliance Seeks to Block AI Data Centers -- Marcellus Drilling News -- What is it about progress and expanding the use of energy for that progress that “progressive” Democrats, like those at the FracTracker Alliance, hate so much? The same group of Dem radicals who have sought to block shale energy in the Keystone State (and beyond) for years has turned its sights on opposing new artificial intelligence (AI) data centers in Pennsylvania and beyond by launching an online mapping tool that shows where planned facilities will be located. Not only will data centers (and the gas-fired power plants that run them) pollute the atmosphere to be unbreathable (say the nutters), AI data centers are racist. Who knew?
34 New Shale Well Permits Issued for PA-OH-WV Jul 28 – Aug 3 --- Marcellus Drilling News -- For the week of July 28 – August 3, the number of permits issued to drill new wells in the Marcellus/Utica more than doubled from the previous week. There were 34 new permits issued across the three M-U states last week, 20 more than the 14 issued two weeks ago. The Keystone State (PA) issued 15 new permits. Both EQT and Range Resources received six permits each for single well pads in Westmoreland and Washington counties, respectively. Expand Energy received three permits for a pad in Bradford County. ANTERO RESOURCES | ASCENT RESOURCES | BELMONT COUNTY | BRADFORD COUNTY | CARROLL COUNTY | ENCINO ENERGY | EQT CORP | EXPAND ENERGY | MARION COUNTY | MARION NATURAL ENERGY | MONROE COUNTY | NOBLE COUNTY | RANGE RESOURCES CORP | TYLER COUNTY |WASHINGTON COUNTY | WESTMORELAND COUNTY
NH Gov. Kelly Ayotte Supports Reviving Constitution Pipeline -- Marcellus Drilling News -- Of the six New England states, there is precisely one that’s even halfway “conservative” (and not really all that conservative, if you ask us): New Hampshire. The other five are all lost causes, run by Democrat governors who are ruining them. NH has a Republican governor and has had Republicans for governors for most of its history. Current Governor Kelly Ayotte, who took office this year (previously a U.S. Senator from the state), met with EPA Administrator Lee Zeldin yesterday. During the meeting, she expressed her support for resurrecting and building the Constitution Pipeline in her comments to the media.
EPA Administrator Pushes for Constitution Pipeline in New England -- Marcellus Drilling News -- As we mentioned in two different posts today (about the 2Q updates from Coterra and Williams), the Constitution Pipeline project is currently not a top priority for Williams. In fact, Williams’ management didn’t even mention the project during their update. Coterra management did mention it as one of the “top-of-mind” projects for them, but acknowledged that another project, the Northeast Supply Enhancement (NESE) pipeline project, is currently the focus for Williams. Coterra and Williams *might* want to talk to President Trump, because the Constitution project is a big, fat priority for him. Yesterday, Trump’s EPA Administrator, Lee Zeldin, published a major “we need the Constitution Pipeline and we need it now” op-ed in the Boston Globe.
Could Trump put LNG trains back on track? - Environmental groups are blasting an initiative from the Trump administration they see as opening the door to more shipments of natural gas by train. It’s the latest development in a yearslong debate over how liquefied natural gas, or LNG, can be transported from where it’s produced to where it’s used. Opponents call trains shipping the supercooled gas “bomb trains.” Supporters call them “rolling pipelines.” Trump administration officials at the Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration asked for public comments on whether there might be commercial interest in shipping LNG. The gas is liquefied by supercooling it to minus 260 degrees Fahrenheit. “The transportation of LNG by rail is known to be dangerous to communities and to help drive climate change,” Mark Izeman, a senior attorney at the Natural Resources Defense Council, said in a comment dated Aug. 1.
Venture Global Receives Approval to Increase Export Capacity at Calcasieu Pass LNG (P&GJ) — The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) has authorized Venture Global LNG to export additional volumes of liquefied natural gas from its Calcasieu Pass facility in Cameron Parish, Louisiana, to non‑free trade agreement (non‑FTA) countries. The final order, signed by U.S. Secretary of Energy Chris Wright, permits the facility to ship an extra 20 billion cubic feet of natural gas annually — roughly equivalent to five additional cargoes per year. “Thanks to President Trump’s leadership, the United States has made massive leaps in unleashing LNG dominance,” Wright said in the announcement. “Today’s authorization is another reminder that this administration is committed to expanding the supply of abundant, affordable, and secure American energy.” Tala Goudarzi, principal deputy assistant secretary of DOE’s Office of Fossil Energy and Carbon Management, said the decision reflects DOE’s efforts “to return to regular order on LNG exports.” Calcasieu Pass has been operational since 2022 and is one of several export projects driving record U.S. LNG production and shipments. The authorization follows DOE’s conditional approval earlier this year for Venture Global’s CP2 project, which is awaiting final review by the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission.
Venture Global Cleared to Ship More LNG From Calcasieu Pass to NFTA Countries — A look at the global natural gas and LNG markets by the numbers
- 5 cargoes: The U.S. Department of Energy has granted Venture Global Inc.’s request to export an additional 20 Bcf/d from its Calcasieu Pass facility in Louisiana to non-free trade agreement (NFTA) countries. The additional authorization could boost the terminal’s annual exports to 12.4 million tons (Mt), or at least five more cargoes per year. Calcasieu Pass has been producing cargoes since 2022, but did not enter commercial service until April after years of operational issues. Exports averaged roughly 9.5 Mt/year over the past two years during the commissioning process, according to Kpler data.
- 5.4 Mt/y: NextDecade Corp. is negotiating a term bank loan for around 40% of the funding for the Train 4 expansion of its Rio Grande LNG facility in South Texas. The company disclosed it is aiming to reach a final investment decision (FID) on the 5.4 Mt/y project by mid-September at the earliest. NextDecade’s pricing agreement with engineering, procurement and construction contractor Bechtel Group is valid until Sept. 15. An FID for Train 4 would mark the fourth U.S. project to be sanctioned this year.
- 0.2 Bcf/d: Pipeline flow data indicates New Fortress Energy Inc.’s floating LNG terminal in Mexico could be experiencing some production interruptions corresponding with a drop in exports. Wood Mackenzie reported feed gas to the facility in Altamira dropped to zero for more than a week in June and almost two weeks in July. Recorded exports from the facility have also declined since peaking in the spring, dropping to 0.06 Mt in July from 0.17 Mt in April, according to Kpler data. Receipts to the FLNG terminal averaged 0.2 Bcf/d during the first six months of the year.
Cheniere Signs 21-Year LNG Supply Deal with Japan’s JERA Starting 2029 - Cheniere Signs 21-Year LNG Supply Deal with Japan’s JERA Starting 2029 Cheniere Signs 21-Year LNG Supply Deal with Japan’s JERA Starting 2029 8/7/2025 (P&GJ) — Cheniere Energy has signed a long-term agreement to supply liquefied natural gas (LNG) to Japan’s JERA, one of the world’s largest LNG buyers and the country’s top power producer, the companies announced Aug. 7. Under the sale and purchase agreement (SPA), JERA will purchase approximately 1 million tonnes per annum (mtpa) of LNG from 2029 through 2050 on a free-on-board basis. The price will be indexed to the Henry Hub benchmark, plus a fixed liquefaction fee. “We are pleased to enter into this multi-decade agreement with JERA, the largest power producer in Japan and one of the largest buyers of LNG in the world,” said Jack Fusco, Cheniere’s president and CEO. “This SPA fortifies our longstanding relationship with JERA, which is based upon years of cooperation and mutually beneficial LNG trade. We look forward to providing our flexible, reliable and cleaner burning LNG to JERA through 2050 under this new long-term agreement.” Yukio Kani, global CEO and chair of JERA, said the agreement strengthens the company’s U.S. partnerships and supports energy stability in Asia. “JERA and Cheniere have built a trusted relationship over many years, and we are pleased to extend this relationship further,” Kani said. “This long-term agreement with Cheniere—a global leader in LNG—supports JERA’s strategy to diversify and strengthen our LNG procurement portfolio, reinforcing our role as a long-term energy partner in the U.S. and deepening our commitment to securing reliable energy supplies.”
Cheniere Eyeing Yet Another Major LNG Expansion in South Texas to Boost Total Output to 107 Mt/y -Cheniere Energy Inc. is moving ahead with yet another expansion project at its Corpus Christi LNG (CCL) export terminal in South Texas as it looks to take advantage of a favorable regulatory environment. Aerial map-style rendering of Cheniere Energy's Corpus Christi LNG expansion projects, highlighting CCL Stage 4 and CCL Stage 3 with Midscale Trains 8 and 9, featuring labeled infrastructure, LNG tanks, docks, and site boundaries near the Gulf Coast. The company pre-filed last month at the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission for its CCL Stage 4 project to build four liquefaction trains that would add another 24 million tons/year (Mt/y) of LNG production capacity at the terminal. Stage 4 would also add two LNG storage tanks and another marine berth. “We are focused on capturing the moment and delivering accretive growth into the next decade,” said CEO Jack Fusco during a call on Thursday to discuss the second quarter earnings. The Trump administration has been working to fast-track LNG export approvals as part of its global energy dominance policy agenda.
ExxonMobil ‘Feels Good’ about Golden Pass, but More U.S. Natural Gas Opportunities? Not Now, Says CEO --The first natural gas from the Golden Pass LNG project underway on the Texas coast should begin operations “sometime at the back end of this year or early next year,” ExxonMobil CEO Darren Woods said Friday. ExxonMobil chart showing the company's internal growth projections for Permian Basin natural gas and “I feel really good about that progress,” he told investors during the second quarter conference call. The Golden Pass crew “has rallied around and come together and recovered from the challenge” following contractor issues, he said. One lead contractor, Zachry Group, filed for bankruptcy in 2024, upending the construction progress. That followed work delays from the Covid-19 pandemic.
FERC Clears Path for Final Decision on Rio Grande, Texas LNG Projects after Court-Ordered Reviews --Federal regulators are poised to make a reauthorization decision for the Rio Grande and Texas LNG export projects later this year after concluding the terminals and associated pipelines could be built without critical impacts to the environment. FERC staff have published final environmental impact statements (EIS) for the developing Gulf Coast terminals that have been facing regulatory uncertainty since a federal appeals court decision last year. The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission concluded that the Rio Grande LNG and Texas LNG terminals could have disproportionate impacts on nearby environmental justice communities given existing air quality issues, but could be built with mitigation efforts.
IEA Forecasts US LNG Export Expansions to Raise Domestic Price Volatility, but Boost Global Demand --A surge in global LNG supply led by the United States is poised to shift market dynamics as soon as next year, but more domestic feed gas demand could also create more price volatility in the Lower 48, according to International Energy Agency (IEA) analysis. Global natural gas futures as of August 5, 2025, showing price trends through 2028 for Henry Hub, JKM (Japan/Korea), and TTF benchmarks. Includes a comparative line chart and table with 12-month strip prices and calendar year projections, highlighting daily changes in USD/MMBtu. Data sourced from Bloomberg, CSI, and NGI calculations. The first half of 2025 was categorized by geopolitical volatility and increased competition for LNG cargoes that raised global benchmarks and cooled natural gas consumption, IEA researchers highlighted in the latest natural gas market report released this month. In the United States, Henry Hub prices were an average of 70% higher in 1H2025 compared to the same period last year. But, as a wave of new commissioning cargoes hit the market from developing terminals, the IEA forecast this year could also be an inflection point, loosening global LNG market competition and encouraging more gas demand.
Natural Gas Price Drops Below $3 'Amid Lack of Support' | Rigzone -In an EBW Analytics Group report sent to Rigzone by the EBW team today, Eli Rubin, an energy analyst at the company, outlined that the natural gas price dropped below $3 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) yesterday “amid [a] lack of support”. The report highlighted that the September natural gas contract closed at $2.932 per MMBtu on Monday. It pointed out that this was a 15.1 cent, or 4.9 percent, drop from Friday’s close. “The September natural gas contract tested as low as $2.895 [per MMBtu] yesterday due to a distinct lack of bullish catalysts,” Rubin noted in the report, adding that Henry Hub physical pricing cleared at $2.87 per MMBtu. “Bearish catalysts continue to cast a cloud over NYMEX gas futures, including incredibly mild weather, strong production, underperforming LNG, and bearish technicals,” Rubin said in the report. “Further, higher-level impediments of ample storage surpluses and weak Henry Hub cash markets provide shorts with protection to be more aggressive,” he added. Rubin noted in the report that “a return to summerlike weather into Week 2 may add 28 CDDs [cooling degree days] week over week” but added that “heat remains biased away from the demand-driving Southeast and South Central”. “LNG may trend higher. Still, until visible inroads into the storage surplus emerge (likely not until the 30-45 day window), sustainable fundamental bullish catalysts may remain scarce, even if a subdued storage trajectory eventually prompts a recovery,” Rubin went on to state in the report. In an EBW report sent to Rigzone by the EBW team on Monday, Rubin said the September natural gas contract “continued to search for direction, as Friday’s attempt to rebound was repelled by bears and bulls defended the $3.00 per MMBtu psychological level”. That report highlighted that the September natural gas contract closed at $3.083 per MMBtu on Friday. It pointed out that this was a 2.3 cent, or 0.7 percent drop from Thursday’s close. “Despite very mild weather, weak LNG feedgas, bearish technicals and a bearish EIA [U.S. Energy Information Administration] storage surprise, shorts failed to press the advantage last week as Henry Hub spot prices traded at $2.99 [per MMBtu] for the weekend,” Rubin said in that report. “Still, production readings remain strong, storage surpluses may surpass 200 billion cubic feet above five-year norms into early August, and excess South Central salt storage stands ready to sell into any late-summer rally. Although not featuring a direct threat to Gulf Coast, the tropics are beginning to awaken seasonally,” he added. In that report, Rubin warned that “bullish sprouts may take time to develop” and said “the aforementioned bearish factors may continue to suppress any near-term fundamental upside”. In its latest weekly natural gas storage report at the time of writing, which was released on July 31 and included data for the week ending July 25, the EIA said working gas in storage was 3,123 billion cubic feet as of July 25, according to its estimates. “This represents a net increase of 48 billion cubic feet from the previous week,” the EIA noted in that report. “Stocks were 123 billion cubic feet less than last year at this time and 195 billion cubic feet above the five-year average of 2,928 billion cubic feet. At 3,123 billion cubic feet, total working gas is within the five-year historical range,” it added.
US natural gas futures climb 2% on near-record LNG export flows — U.S. natural gas futures climbed about 2% on Wednesday on near-record gas flows to liquefied natural gas export plants and forecasts for hotter-than-normal weather to continue through at least late August. The heat means homes and businesses will likely keep their air conditioners cranked up until the end of the month, forcing power generators to burn more gas than usual for this time of year. More than 40% of the electricity produced in the U.S. comes from gas-fired power plants. Front-month gas futures for September delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 6.7 cents, or 2.2%, to settle at $3.077 per million British thermal units. Despite a hotter-than-usual summer, record output has allowed energy firms to inject more gas into storage than usual in recent months - although likely not during an extreme heatwave last week. Analysts said gas stockpiles were around 6% above normal for this time of year and would likely keep growing in coming weeks. In the Atlantic Ocean, meanwhile, the U.S. National Hurricane Center said two disturbances could turn into tropical cyclones over the next week - one with a 30% chance of forming off the coasts of North and South Carolina and another with a 60% chance of forming in the North Central Atlantic. The system with a 30% chance of forming was downgraded from a 40% chance earlier in the day. Analysts noted that East Coast storms are generally demand-destroying events that knock out power to homes and businesses, reducing the amount of gas power generators need to burn. LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 states eased to 107.8 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in August, down from a monthly record high of 107.9 bcfd in July. On a daily basis, output was on track to drop to a preliminary four-week low of 106.0 bcfd on Wednesday, down about 3.7 bcfd since hitting a daily record high of 109.7 bcfd on July 28. Preliminary data, however, is often revised later in the day. LSEG projected average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, would rise from 105.6 bcfd this week to 110.3 bcfd next week. The forecast for this week was higher than LSEG's outlook on Tuesday. The average amount of gas flowing to the eight big U.S. LNG export plants rose to 16.1 bcfd so far in August, up from 15.5 bcfd in July. That compares with a monthly record high of 16.0 bcfd in April. On a daily basis, LNG export feedgas was on track to rise to a 16-week high of 16.7 bcfd on Wednesday after Freeport LNG's 2.1-bcfd export plant in Texas exited last week's outages and Venture Global LNG's VG 3.2-bcfd Plaquemines plant in Louisiana pulled in a record 3.2 bcfd. That compares with a total daily LNG feedgas record high of 17.3 bcfd on April 9.
BofA lowers natural gas price forecast as production outpaces demand - Bank of America has reduced its natural gas price forecast for September-December 2025 to $3.0/mmbtu, citing persistent loose market balances despite record summer heat. The fourth hottest June-July period in 30 years has been insufficient to tighten the natural gas market, as production growth and power sector looseness exceeded 6 Bcf/d year-over-year, outpacing the 3.3 Bcf/d increase in LNG demand. This imbalance has expanded the storage surplus from 117 Bcf at May’s end to 195 Bcf currently. BofA analysts project end-of-summer inventories will reach approximately 3.93 Tcf, with western U.S. and Canadian regions rapidly refilling stocks. The bank warns that natural gas could get pushed back to the Midwest and Eastern U.S. this fall, while tropical activity might complicate daily injection requirements. The bank has also lowered its 2026 price outlook to $4.0/mmbtu from previous higher forecasts, as production growth is now expected to largely offset increased LNG demand. October 2026 inventory is projected at 3.68 Tcf, only about 70 Bcf below normal levels. Record production levels in Appalachia despite the lowest rig count since 2021, combined with Haynesville’s increasing efficiencies and "LNG ready" status, contribute to the bearish outlook, while the natural gas rig count has increased by more than 20% since Q1 2025 in response to higher prices earlier this year.
US natural gas futures steady as small storage build offset near-record output — =U.S. natural gas futures held steady on Thursday as a smaller-than-expected storage build last week and forecasts for hotter-than-normal weather offset near-record output. Front-month gas futures for September delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 1.0 cent, or 0.3%, to settle at $3.067 per million British thermal units. The U.S. Energy Information Administration said energy firms added 7 billion cubic feet of gas into storage during the week ended August 1, the smallest weekly build so far this year. Analysts said extreme heat last week boosted the amount of gas power generators burned to keep air conditioners humming. That was smaller than the 17-bcf build analysts forecast in a Reuters poll and compared with an increase of 21 bcf during the same week last year and an average of 29 bcf over the 2020-2024 period. That build left gas stockpiles about 6% above the five-year normal for this time of year. In the Atlantic Ocean, the U.S. National Hurricane Center said two disturbances could turn into tropical cyclones over the next week - one with a 20% chance of forming and another with a 60% chance. It is likely, however, that neither storm will reach land in the U.S. LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 states eased to 107.8 billion cubic feet per day so far in August, down from a monthly record high of 107.9 bcfd in July. LSEG projected average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, would rise from 105.8 bcfd this week to 109.6 bcfd next week. The forecast for next week was lower than LSEG's outlook on Wednesday. The average amount of gas flowing to the eight big U.S. LNG export plants rose to 16.1 bcfd so far in August, up from 15.5 bcfd in July. That compares with a monthly record high of 16.0 bcfd in April. On a daily basis, LNG export feedgas was on track to ease to 16.1 bcfd on Thursday, having reached a 16-week high of 16.8 bcfd on Wednesday after Freeport LNG's 2.1-bcfd export plant in Texas exited last week's outages and Venture Global LNG's VG Plaquemines plant in Louisiana pulled in a near-record 3.2 bcfd. That compares with a total daily LNG feedgas record high of 17.3 bcfd on April 9. The LNG export gas flow reduction on Thursday was due to small declines at several plants including at Cheniere Energy's 3.9-bcfd Corpus Christi plant in Texas, to around 1.7 bcfd on Thursday from a three-week high of 2.4 bcfd on Wednesday, according to LSEG data.
Devon Working to Wave Bye, Bye, Bye to Waha Natural Gas Pricing -- Getting natural gas molecules out of the Permian Basin to more lucrative markets on the Gulf Coast and overseas has been the guidepost for Devon Energy Corp., which has two new agreements that fit the bill. Bar chart from Devon Energy Inc. showing Q2 2025 oil and gas production reaching 841 million boe/d, exceeding guidance by 3%. The chart breaks down volumes by basin: Delaware (largest), Rockies, Eagle Ford, and Anadarko. The multi-basin independent delivered stronger natural gas and oil production during the second quarter, executives said during the conference call. The higher output, particularly for natural gas, is tied to a midstream philosophy to get the best price for the molecules, CFO Jeff Ritenour told investors. It’s a little push-me, pull-you when working on midstream options, he explained. That’s become crucial in moving the gas from the mainstay of the portfolio, the Permian Basin’s Delaware formation.
208-Mile Mississippi-to-Alabama Gas Pipeline Moves Into FERC Review (P&GJ) — Kinder Morgan’s Tennessee Gas Pipeline Company, L.L.C. (TGP) has filed a formal application with federal regulators to build the Mississippi Crossing Project (MSX), a $1.7 billion natural gas pipeline expansion designed to deliver 2.1 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) of firm transportation capacity across Mississippi and Alabama.The project includes 208 miles of new pipe — the centerpiece being a 199-mile, 42- and 36-inch mainline stretching from Greenville, Mississippi, to Butler, Alabama. Additional infrastructure includes three new compressor stations, multiple interconnects, and four metering facilities.TGP submitted its Certificate of Public Convenience and Necessity application to the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) on June 30, 2025, officially moving the project into the federal review phase. The filing followed the May 31 submission of all required environmental resource reports, which included consultations with regulatory agencies and other stakeholders.The project is backed by strong market demand, with more than 90% of its capacity under long-term precedent agreements. Customers include major Southeast utilities and power generators such as Southern Company Services, Dominion Energy South Carolina, Tennessee Valley Authority, and the Municipal Gas Authority of Georgia. TGP affiliate Southern Natural Gas Company has secured 1.17 Bcf/d of capacity to serve downstream users.TGP is requesting FERC approval by July 1, 2026, with construction scheduled to begin in January 2027 and the pipeline expected to enter service by November 2028.An independent market analysis submitted with the application projects that natural gas demand in Mississippi and Alabama will grow by 8% by 2030, driven by coal retirements, increased electricity generation, and industrial activity. Current infrastructure in the region is operating near peak capacity.TGP estimates the project will support 4,760 to 9,820 average annual jobs across Mississippi, Alabama, and Georgia during construction, generating between $950 million and $2.4 billion in regional economic output.To help reduce environmental and community impacts, approximately 28% of the proposed route will parallel existing infrastructure corridors, and several segments will be installed using horizontal directional drilling.
Energy Transfer plans $5.3B Southwest gas pipeline - --One of the country’s biggest pipeline companies announced Wednesday that it wants to build a 516-mile natural gas pipeline from West Texas to Arizona, adding to a list of proposed energy projects as President Donald Trump promotes the use of fossil fuels. Energy Transfer, which is best known for developing the Dakota Access oil pipeline in the Upper Midwest, described its new Desert Southwest project as a $5.3 billion expansion of its Transwestern system.The line is slated to run along existing pipeline routes, the company said, and the project is expected to be completed by the end of 2029. In its announcement Wednesday, Dallas-based Energy Transfer said the project is needed to serve “population growth, high-tech industry demand and data center expansion.”Utilities in Arizona have announced commitments to take gas from the 3-½-foot-wide pipeline. And business leaders greeted the proposal with enthusiasm.
Energy Transfer to Build $5.3 Billion Permian Gas Pipeline to Supply Southwest - (P&GJ) — Energy Transfer LP announced Aug. 6 that it has approved a $5.3 billion expansion of its Transwestern Pipeline, aiming to boost natural gas deliveries from the Permian Basin to fast-growing markets in Arizona and New Mexico. The Desert Southwest expansion will add 516 miles of 42-inch pipeline and nine compressor stations across Arizona, New Mexico and Texas. Once complete, the system will have the capacity to transport 1.5 billion cubic feet of natural gas per day (Bcf/d). “This project will provide reliable economic supplies of natural gas to support the long-term energy needs for utilities and energy providers in the region driven by population growth, high-tech industry demand and data center expansion,” Energy Transfer said. The pipeline is scheduled to enter service in the fourth quarter of 2029 and builds on Transwestern’s decades-long presence in the region since it began operating in 1960. Energy Transfer said the project is backed by significant long-term commitments from investment-grade customers. An open season is planned later this quarter to secure additional shippers, and the company expects the remaining capacity to be fully subscribed. The system could be expanded further depending on open season results. The project also includes $600 million in Allowance for Funds Used During Construction (AFUDC). Energy Transfer expects to use U.S. steel and employ up to 5,000 workers, including union labor, during construction. Energy Transfer operates a vast network of pipelines across major U.S. supply basins and connects to nearly 200 natural gas-fired power plants nationwide. The company said this footprint allows it to “capitalize on opportunities to increase earnings and efficiently expand its industry-leading pipeline network.”
Enbridge Sees High Demand to Expand 593-Mile Canada-to-U.S. Gulf Oil Pipeline - (Reuters) — Canadian pipeline operator Enbridge said on Aug. 1 its recent commercial process to gauge oil shippers' interest in an expansion of its Flanagan South pipeline was oversubscribed, indicating strong demand for additional oil transport capacity from Canada to the U.S. Gulf Coast.The success of the Flanagan South open season — an industry term for the binding process pipeline companies use to notify shippers of available capacity and solicit bids — brings Enbridge closer to formally sanctioning its proposed expansion of its Mainline network, CEO Greg Ebel said on a conference call.He said Enbridge plans to make a final investment decision on the first phase of the project, which would add 150,000 barrels of capacity to the Mainline system, before the end of this year. Enbridge's Mainline is the largest pipeline system in North America, with the capacity to move 3 million barrels per day of crude from Western Canada to markets in Eastern Canada and the U.S. Midwest. Flanagan South is a 954-km (593-mile) connector pipeline running from Illinois to Cushing, Oklahoma, and is part of the larger Mainline network.The Mainline system was in apportionment — a term that means demand has exceeded available pipeline capacity — for six of the first eight months of 2025, Ebel said.Canadian oil shipments to the U.S. are exempt from tariffs, and output from Canada's oil sands continues to rise. A recent report from S&P Global estimated Canada's oil sands will produce 3.8 million bpd of crude by 2030, a 15% increase from current levels.Canada's Trans Mountain pipeline, which ships oil from Alberta to British Columbia's west coast, where it can be exported overseas, is eyeing its own capacity increases.Polls in Canada — the world's fourth-largest oil producer — have shown an uptick in domestic support for a new oil pipeline to overseas markets, but no private company has indicated interest in building such a project. Ebel said on Friday a new pipeline is unlikely unless the federal government repeals some of its environmental policies, such as a proposed cap on greenhouse gas emissions from the oil sands as well as an existing ban on oil tankers off British Columbia's northern coast.
Dunlap fire causes fuel and oil to spill into local river(KCAU) — Hundreds of gallons of fuel, oil, and other toxic chemicals spilled into a local river after a fire at a gas station. It happened this morning at the Rockin’ K Solutions service station by Highway 30 and County Road 37 in Dunlap. The Iowa DNR is leading the investigation and cleanup as officials say the fire destroyed the service station, causing the fuel release. In all, officials believe up to 1,200 gallons of gas, oil, and other harmful products ended up in the river as a result. At this time, an unknown amount entered a storm drain that flows to a stormwater ditch to the river. Iowa DNR said there’s no immediate threat to marine life.
Interior slashes reviews to speed cleanups of orphaned wells - Trump administration officials have removed endangered species and historic preservation reviews from federal orphaned well programs, potentially speeding the cleanup of tens of thousands of abandoned sites. But the administration’s rationale for why the reviews are not required has puzzled some attorneys, who are skeptical of the legal arguments and say the move could open up litigation threats for states. The change — which was put in place July 17 — could also indicate a broader shift in what kinds of environmental or historic reviews officials will require for federally funded grant programs. If implemented, that wider change could mean fewer environmental reviews for a range of federal initiatives.“It’ll be interesting to see if this is a policy that we see played out on a larger scale as the administration continues to effectuate the priority of unleashing American energy,” said Stephanie Sebor, a partner at the Jenner & Block law firm who focuses on environmental topics.As part of the bipartisan infrastructure law that passed in 2021, Congress outlined nearly $4.7 billion in grants that states could apply for to clean up abandoned wells. As part of the grant process, the Interior Department concluded that the grants were subject to standard aspects of endangered species and historic preservation reviews. Section 7 of the Endangered Species Act requires that federal actions do not jeopardize the continued existence of listed species. That “applies to all actions federal agencies fund, authorize, permit, or carry out in which there is discretionary federal involvement or control,” according to the Fish and Wildlife Service. Similarly, Section 106 of the National Historic Preservation Act states that federal activities must be reviewed for their impact on historic resources. The law refers to those activities as “undertakings,” and federal rules have defined them as projects “funded in whole or in part under the direct or indirect jurisdiction of a Federal agency,” including “those carried out with federal financial assistance.” But the Trump administration has concluded that those reviews do not apply to the orphaned wells program and dropped them from the requirements. In a document about the orphaned wells program, Interior says the well cleanup is “not subject to” the ESA requirements. It also says they’re not “undertakings” under the National Historic Preservation Act. The brief explanation does not provide the administration’s legal view of the changes. The White House referred queries to Interior, which answered questions about grant specifics but did not respond to questions from POLITICO’s E&E News about the overall reason for changes. “States know their land and their needs best,” Tyler Hassen, who at the time was acting assistant secretary of policy, management and budget, said in a statement accompanying Interior’s July 17 announcement. “By cutting unnecessary barriers, we’re helping them clean up old wells faster, protect communities and support energy development.”Tens of thousands of abandoned wells exist across the U.S., many of which send methane, a greenhouse gas, into the atmosphere. There are around 120,000 documented orphaned wells nationwide, according to a 2023 release from the U.S. Geological Survey. And USGS said there could be about 1 million orphaned wells that remain undocumented.
The San Juan Basin Has Seen Many Ups and Downs. Is Another Upturn . -The San Juan Basin in northwestern New Mexico and southwestern Colorado has seen more than its share of booms and busts in the last 100-plus years. During the Shale Era, natural gas production in the 7,500-square-mile basin has been slowly declining, undercut by competition from more prolific, better-situated wells in the Permian and Eagle Ford. But a small band of “San Juan believers” think the region is poised for yet another rebound, this time due to what they view as massive, untapped potential in the basin’s Mancos Shale. In today’s RBN blog, we discuss recent developments in the San Juan — and the basin’s extensive pipeline infrastructure. The San Juan Basin is primarily a natural gas producing region. Production there has been a bit of a roller-coaster since its start back in 1921, when the basin’s first commercially successful well was drilled near Aztec, NM. (Initial production, several million cubic feet per day — no slouch!) The challenge then was getting gas to market; the San Juan was hundreds of miles from large population centers and there was little to no pipeline infrastructure in place. The completion of the El Paso Natural Gas pipeline to California in the early 1950s spurred a boom in conventional gas production in the basin, and (after a handful of mini-booms and mini-busts) that was followed up in the 1980s and ’90s by a surge in coalbed methane production from the uppermost Fruitland Formation (dark-brown layer in Figure 1 below). By 2000, the San Juan Basin was among the U.S.’s top gas production areas, churning out nearly 4.5 Bcf/d of gross gas, or about 8% of total U.S. onshore production at the time.The basin’s gas output has been inching down year-by-year over the past quarter-century, mostly due to competition from the Permian, whose gas production — a by-product of crude-oil-focused drilling — has been rising substantially and displacing other gas. As shown in Figure 2 below, production in the three counties that account for virtually all the San Juan’s gas (Rio Arriba and San Juan counties in New Mexico and La Plata County in Colorado) slid to about 3 Bcf/d by the mid-2010s and 2 Bcf/d or so in recent years. Also noteworthy is the fact that most of the large producers once active in the basin (BP and ConocoPhillips among them) left a few years ago to focus on more prolific, profitable regions. Over the past few months, however, there’s been a new flurry of interest in the San Juan, primarily from two smaller producers who said new technology and production techniques have the potential to give the basin a new and profitable lease on life. The focus this time is on the Mancos Shale (medium-gray layer in Figure 1), a thick marine shale formation located several thousand feet below ground level.First, in January, master limited partnership TXO Partners said that its technical team had identified the potential for nearly 3 Tcf of gas production in the MLP’s 58,500-acre position there (blue-shaded areas in Figure 3 below), most of it in the northern reaches of Rio Arriba and San Juan counties. “Given all the important criteria — reservoir characteristics, acreage location, productivity data, and infrastructure access — we have identified a tactical, 3,520-acre block as Phase 1 for developing and monetizing reserves, representing about 6% of our current Mancos position,” TXO said in a statement. The company said its engineers estimate that the Phase 1 acreage (orange box) holds 200 Bcf to 300 Bcf of natural gas, and that the eight to 12 horizontal wells it plans to drill there each has the potential to produce up to 25 Bcf. TXO Partners’ announcement was followed on July 10 with Mach Natural Resources’ statement that it had entered into a definitive agreement to acquire international asset manager IKAV Energy’s San Juan Basin assets for $787 million. The deal, which is expected to close later in Q3 2025, will give publicly owned Mach IKAV’s 570,000 net acres, 60 Mboe/d of production and related gas-gathering assets in the basin. IKAV’s production there — under the name Simcoe — is heavily weighted toward natural gas: 94%, or 336 MMcf/d, of it is gas and the other 6% is liquids (4 Mb/d of NGLs). IKAV had purchased the assets from BP in March 2020. Expanded gas production in the San Juan Basin by Mach, TXO and others will be supported by the region’s extensive network of gas pipelines. Figure 4 shows the major pipelines that serve the region, as well as the three pricing hubs most relevant to San Juan gas producers (Waha, San Juan and SoCal Border; black circles). As we said in A Thousand Miles From Henry back in 2021, it’s a relatively simple network compared to most basins, though it’s complicated somewhat by the fact that gas flows on some pipelines often shift, depending on supply/demand fundamentals and resulting gas prices.
Oil majors’ profits fall despite record production - Earnings for Exxon Mobil and Chevron tumbled in the second quarter even as the Texas-based companies reached record oil production levels.Exxon reported $7.1 billion in quarterly net income Friday, while Chevron announced a profit of $2.5 billion. Both figures were down roughly $2 billion from the same period last year.London-based Shell also saw its profitability decline, saying Thursday that second-quarter adjusted earnings fell 32 percent to $4.26 billion. The industry had signaled that results would be lower in the second quarter, although earnings from the three oil majors turned out better than what some Wall Street analysts had expected.Even though Shell, Exxon and Chevron made less money, their performance in the second quarter seemed relatively stable, according to Aditya Ravi of Rystad Energy. He pointed to share repurchases and dividend programs and the fact that the companies haven’t delayed final investment decisions on major projects.
Canadian E&Ps, Enbridge Lean into Global Natural Gas Demand as Market Shifts Intensify -Canadian natural gas exploration and production (E&P) companies are adjusting their strategies in response to mounting global demand, expanding LNG operations and persistently low domestic pricing. NGI's Canada Border Tracker map and bar chart showing U.S.-Canada natural gas flows and price points as of August 7, 2025. Regional data includes exports from the Rockies (3.15 Bcf/d), Mid-Con (3.40 Bcf/d), and imports into the Midwest (-1.54 Bcf/d) and Northeast (-0.14 Bcf/d). Notable price points include PNGTS ($4.300), Dawn ($2.770), Emerson ($0.370), and Northwest Sumas ($1.485). A bar chart below displays daily net export totals from July 29 to August 7, 2025. Tourmaline Oil Corp., Canada’s largest natural gas producer, reported second quarter 2025 output of 620,757 boe/d, down slightly from the prior quarter but up 10% year/year and squarely in the mid-range of its previous guidance. The annual gain was driven by a 13% increase in natural gas output, which accounts for the majority of the company’s production. The growth came despite operational headwinds, including wildfire interruptions, natural gas shut-ins and deferred hydraulic fracturing activity in response to weak Western Canada prices. CEO Michael Rose said during the company’s recent earnings call that Tourmaline remains on track to hit its updated full-year production target of 635,000-650,000 boe/d, with year-end production now expected to reach as high as 690,000 boe/d. The company also forecasted preliminary 2026 output between 690,000 and 710,000 boe/d.
Construction Costs Nearly Double at Canada’s Woodfibre LNG Facility Amid Permitting Challenges (Reuters) — Construction costs at Canada's Woodfibre LNG project have increased, driving up capital costs for all partners involved, Canadian pipeline company Enbridge reported on Aug. 1. The Woodfibre LNG project is a 2.1-million tonne liquefied natural gas export facility under construction near Squamish, British Columbia. The project is one of several new LNG facilities planned for Canada's Pacific coast, and is expected to be complete in 2027. The project's capital cost was initially estimated at US$5.1 billion. But Enbridge, which owns a 30% stake in the project, said Aug. 1 on a conference call that costs have recently increased due to permit delays, building code changes, a second floating hotel to accommodate workers, and challenging on-site conditions. "Our share of the project costs have increased from US$1.5 billion to US$2.9 billion, and our partners' proportionate share has increased similarly," an Enbridge spokesperson said in an email. The 70% remaining stake in the Woodfibre project is owned by Pacific Energy Corp. Ltd., which is part of the Singapore-based RGE Group of companies. Woodfibre LNG did not immediately respond to a request for comment on Aug. 1. Enbridge said Aug. 1 it is still expecting low double-digit returns from the project, relatively consistent with what it had initially expected. The company remains excited about the project and the LNG market, Enbridge's spokesperson said.
Mexico Approves Fracking to Reverse Sagging Oil and Gas Production In a major U-turn in energy policy, Mexico has unveiled a 10-year plan to reverse a years-long decline in oil and gas production by tapping more unconventional resources through fracking. Petroleos Mexicanos, or Pemex, the world’s most indebted energy firm, has seen declines in its output in recent years as old shallow-water conventional fields mature. Now the government and its state-controlled energy giant want to revitalize production via fracking, Reuters reports, citing the revitalization plan. In the late 2010s, then-President Enrique Peña Nieto sought to open shale basins, including the Burgos Basin, a shale-rich basin in northeastern Mexico, for natural gas exploration and development by private companies.However, Peña Nieto’s successor, Andrés Manuel López Obrador, cancelled the contracts. Former president Lopez Obrador ruled out fracking during his term in office between 2018 and 2024. But his successor and mentee, current President Claudia Sheinbaum, has agreed to give the green light increased fracking despite a campaign pledge last year that she would not allow it. “We're going to address all the geological potential we have,” Reuters quoted Pemex chief executive Victor Rodriguez as saying during a presentation of the plan. Pemex has been fracking onshore fields close to the Gulf of Mexico coast, but it does not report shale production separately and it is not clear how much the fracking has contributed to output. It’s clear that most of oil and gas production comes from conventional resources at old offshore platforms in shallow waters. The steady decline in Pemex’s output and the tense trade and tariff relations with the U.S. has apparently prompted Mexico to expand domestic fracking in a bid to reduce its high dependence on natural gas imports from the United States. Over the past decade, Mexican imports of U.S. natural gas, mostly via pipelines, have jumped thanks to new pipelines built between the U.S. and Mexico.Mexico has an estimated 545 Tcf of technically recoverable shale gas resources, the sixth largest in the world, per U.S. government data.
Trade Tensions, Geopolitical Risks Keep Global Natural Gas Market on Edge – LNG Recap -President Trump’s escalating trade war and ultimatum for Russia to reach a ceasefire with Ukraine by Friday or face new sanctions pushed European natural gas prices higher on Monday. Image showing a comprehensive market analysis of the European Union’s gas storage levels with graphs representing trends in inventories, highlighting key insights into energy market dynamics and gas The September Title Transfer Facility (TTF) contract gained 15 cents to finish at $11.65/MMBtu on Monday after falling on Friday. Prices gained most of last week after the European Union cut a trade deal with the United States to buy $750 billion of American energy over three years. But the prompt contract fell Friday amid profit taking, according to trading firm Mind Energy. Geopolitical tensions once again had the market on edge as the week got underway. In addition to an ultimatum that Russia appears to be ignoring, new U.S. tariff rates are set to take effect Thursday for dozens of countries that were announced last week after President Trump’s deadline to reach deals passed.
European Gas Deals Signal Shift as U.S. LNG Gains Ground amid Long-Term Market Rebalance -A fresh wave of natural gas supply deals signed by European refiners and chemical manufacturers are highlighting the growing role of U.S. LNG as a balancing force ahead of a long-term market rebalance. Bar chart titled "Europe LNG Imports" showing annual LNG import volumes (in million tonnes) by source region from 2020 to 2024. The United States is the largest supplier, with sharply rising exports through 2024. Other major sources include Qatar, the Russian Federation, and North Africa. The data is compiled by Natural Gas Intelligence using Kpler data and includes minor contributions from Asia, Latin America, and the Middle East. In 2Q2025, the narrative for industrial natural gas demand in Europe continued to look grim. Eni SpA reported falling margins for its refined products and more than 5% drop year/year for chemical as trade uncertainty upended Asian markets. The persisting downward pressure on Europe’s industrial sector helped cool natural gas consumption gains that had previously been ticking up since mid-2024. However, that hasn’t stopped firms like Eni from locking in more future U.S. LNG supply.
Eastern Med’s Leviathan and Tamar Fields Poised to Expand Natural Gas Production, Say Chevron Execs --Eastern Mediterranean natural gas projects are back at work following a two-week shutdown in June, with major expansions in the works, Chevron Corp. executives said Friday. NewMed Energy LP map of natural gas pipelines serving the Eastern Med production area CEO Mike Wirth was joined by Vice Chairman Mark Nelson during a conference call to discuss second quarter performance. The integrated major has natural gas projects underway around the world, with expansions underway in the Eastern Med, as it is known. In the region, Chevron has control over the massive Leviathan natural gas platform, as well as Tamar, both offshore Israel.
Trump Raises India Tariffs to 50% Over Its Import of Russian Oil After Witkoff Meets Putin - President Trump on Wednesday signed an executive order raising tariffs on India to 50% over New Delhi’s import of Russian oil, a step he took right after his envoy, Steve Witkoff, held a meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin.The president said that the tariffs on India would go into effect on August 27 and that other countries could face similar measures if they continue purchasing Russian oil. The move comes ahead of the August 8 deadline Trump set for Russia to end the war in Ukraine or face sanctions and “secondary tariffs” on its trading partners.After imposing the tariffs, Trump also said “great progress” was made in the Witkoff-Putin meeting. “My Special Envoy, Steve Witkoff, just had a highly productive meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin. Great progress was made!” the president wrote on Truth Social. “Afterwards, I updated some of our European Allies. Everyone agrees this War must come to a close, and we will work towards that in the days and weeks to come. Thank you for your attention to this matter!” the president added.The Russian side also said that the Trump-Witkoff meeting, which lasted three hours, went well, though there’s no sign any real progress was made toward a ceasefire in Ukraine, and US officials say more “secondary sanctions” will be imposed on Friday. Moscow has also made clear that the threat of the US imposing tariffs on its trading partners would not impact its military operations in Ukraine. In response to the tariffs, which came after Trump first announced a 25% tariff, the Indian Foreign Ministry said that it was “extremely unfortunate that the US should choose to impose additional tariffs on India for actions that several other countries are also taking in their own national interest.” Indian officials have previously said New Delhi would continue buying Russian oil despite the pressure from the US. The Foreign Ministry said that the US actions were “unfair, unjustified, and unreasonable” and that New Delhi would “take all actions necessary to protect its national interests.”
India's Reliance Warns Tariffs Threaten Oil Market Stability --Reliance Industries, the top private refiner in India, has warned in its annual report that tariff uncertainties and geopolitical events could affect global crude oil flows and oil market balances. “Continuing geopolitical and tariff-related uncertainties may affect trade flows and demand-supply balance,” the conglomerate Reliance Industries, owned and chaired by Indian billionaire Mukesh Ambani, said in its annual 2024-2025 report.“Global crude oil prices continue to remain volatile on the back of dynamic interplay of various factors such as geopolitical volatility in the Middle East, redirection of shipping routes, OPEC+ and non-OPEC production decisions, regional capacity additions and downstream supply-demand realignments, evolving sanctions and trade tariff regimes and rate of recovery of Chinese economy,” Reliance added. The refiner also noted that tariffs and sanctions key are among the factors to watch this year, alongside stagnating demand in China due to EV penetration, aviation growth in Asia, and geopolitical uncertainties. Earlier this week, U.S. President Donald Trump signed an executive order enacting an additional 25% tariff on Indian goods, explicitly targeting India’s ongoing imports of Russian crude oil. This order increases the total tariff rate on Indian exports to the United States to 50%, the highest level for any country under current U.S. policy. The 50% tariff will take effect 21 days after August 6. The executive order also establishes a process for the potential imposition of similar tariffs on other countries that directly or indirectly import oil from the Russian Federation, the White House said. India has said that the U.S. tariff of 50% due to Indian imports of Russian oil is “unfair, unjustified and unreasonable.” “We have already made clear our position on these issues, including the fact that our imports are based on market factors and done with the overall objective of ensuring the energy security of 1.4 billion people of India,” the Indian government said on Wednesday.
Russian Crude Discount Deepens Amid Sanctions and Tariffs -- Russia’s flagship Urals blend is trading at a $5 discount to dated Brent following the latest round of EU sanctions and President Trump’s decision to impose additional tariffs of 25% on Indian imports as punishment for India’s decision to continue buying Russian oil. Following these latest moves by the EU and the U.S., Indian refiners started reducing their intake of Russian crude, which has affected prices, energy analytics provider Kpler reported this week, noting that Indian oil buyers were ramping up purchases of U.S. crude instead. “Lower demand from Indian refiners is starting to have a strong effect, particularly from state-owned refiners, which are reportedly considering a full pause in imports of Russian oil,” Kpler said. The company added, however, that “On the other side, private players are still scooping barrels, but at a lower pace. Four Aframaxes are currently waiting to discharge at Jamnagar and Vadinar.” It would be difficult for Indian refiners and oil traders to completely replace Russian supply, which has come to account for 37% of the country’s oil supply, according to Bloomberg. Still, Kpler analysts expect the downward trend for Urals to continue as Russian refineries enter maintenance season, increasing the availability of the crude, and “more risk-averse behaviour from Indian state-owned and private refiners” amid President Trump’s tariff actions. Kpler suggests that the current spat between the U.S. and India could end with a commitment from the latter to buy more U.S. oil but judging by the official statements coming out of New Delhi, this is not the number-one choice for the Indian government right now. India has already slammed the U.S. for the additional tariffs, which it has called “unfair, unjustified and unreasonable,” noting that “it is revealing that the very nations criticizing India are themselves indulging in trade with Russia.”
Refinery Outages Force Russia to Redirect Crude to Export Markets |--Russia is preparing to sharply increase crude oil exports this month after Ukrainian drone strikes disabled two major refineries, leaving excess unprocessed crude with no domestic outlet and prompting a shift toward western port shipments.According to Reuters, crude shipments from Russia’s western ports could increase to 2 million barrels per day in August, about 200,000 bpd more than previously planned. Spot traders have begun locking in Aframax tankers to handle the sudden increase, as onshore refining options collapse and terminal inventories build.Ukrainian drone strikes overnight targeting Russian oil infrastructure have disabled two major Rosneft-operated refineries. Kommersant reported that the Novokuibyshevsk refinery has completely halted primary processing after damage to its CDU-11 unit. At Ryazan, only one crude distillation unit remains online, slashing output by more than half and affecting both gasoline and diesel production.This shortfall has driven domestic fuel prices to historic levels. The Kyiv Independent reports that Ai-95 gasoline on the St. Petersburg exchange reached RUB 77,000 per ton on Tuesday, marking the highest print since the beginning of Russia’s full-scale invasion. The fuel spike is being closely monitored by the Kremlin as it coincides with peak summer demand, raising concerns about potential rationing or emergency stockpile use in affected regions.According to traders cited by Reuters, Russia may need up to ten additional Aframax tankers to handle the planned increase in crude exports from its western ports in August. The rise of up to 200,000 barrels per day above prior guidance reflects the diversion of crude volumes that can no longer be processed domestically due to refinery damage. Spot market activity has reportedly picked up, with charterers seeking mid-August loading windows to lift Urals crude that would have otherwise been sent to Rosneft’s Ryazan and Novokuibyshevsk refineries. Traders expect Russia will offload as much Urals crude as possible while prices remain favorable and inventories swell. Market participants are also watching for any official response from Rosneft or the Russian Energy Ministry regarding repair timelines.
Oil Spill in Ogoniland Amid Ongoing Clean-up Exercise – The Whistler NewspaperA new oil spill has been confirmed in the Ogoni area of Rivers State, Nigeria, complicating ongoing environmental clean-up efforts. According the Youths and Environmental Advocacy Centre (YEAC-Nigeria) the spill on August 6, 2025, in the Kpean Community, Ken-Khana District, Khana Local Government Area. According to the report, the spill is alleged to have resulted from equipment failure on a wellhead, although the specific wellhead is yet to be independently confirmed. Two paramount rulers in the area provided different accounts, with one indicating Oil Well 2 and the other stating Oil Well 4 in the OML 11 oil field. These wells were abandoned by Shell Petroleum Development Company (SPDC) in 1993 after they departed Ogoniland.
China’s Oil Imports Jumped in July From a Year Earlier - Chinese crude oil imports jumped by 11.5% in July from a year earlier as major state refiners boosted processing rates, official data showed on Thursday.Last month, China imported 47.2 million metric tons of crude oil, which is equivalent to 11.12 million barrels per day (bpd), per data from the General Administration of Customs cited by Reuters.The import level was 5.4% lower compared to June, when China’s crude imports surged to 12.14 million bpdto the highest in almost two years. The spike in June imports reflected both restocking after refinery maintenance and opportunistic buying by independent refiners amid steep discounts on sanctioned barrels.Chinese independent refiners, the so-called ‘teapots’ stocked up on Iranian barrels in June, while their overall imports were lower in July from the previous month.State refiners, however, boosted imports in July as they accelerated run rates last month after the end of the maintenance period.China’s total refinery utilization rate increased to 71.84% in July, up by 1.02 percentage points compared to June and 3.56 percentage points higher compared to July 2024, according to estimates by consultancy Oilchem cited by Reuters. In June, improved fuel margins and the end of spring maintenance boosted China’s oil refinery throughput tothe highest level since September 2023.China started accelerating crude oil imports in March and April, but the increased purchases weren’t necessarily a sign of recovering fuel demand in the world’s biggest crude importer. It’s more likely that Chinese refiners have been aggressively stockpiling cheaper crude amid uncertainties about sanctioned barrels going forward.Analysts expected strong Chinese imports and refining output to have continued into July amid peak travel season and state-held refiners rebuilding fuel stocks.
Robust Asian Demand Drives Saudi Oil Price Hikes --The world’s top crude oil exporter, Saudi Arabia, bets on robust demand in Asia as it raised the prices of its oil loading in September for a second month in a row. The flagship Saudi grade Arab Light will sell in Asia in September at a premium of $3.20 per barrel above the Oman/Dubai average, the Middle East benchmark, off which shipments to Asia are priced. The hike is $1.00 a barrel above the August price, as well as the second consecutive rise in the price of Arab Light loading for Asia. Last month, Saudi oil giant Aramco raised its August-loading Arab Light OSP to Asia by $0.70, lifting the premium to $2.20, which represented the highest level since March. That decision followed steady margins across Asian refining hubs and tightening Russian competition, particularly on the Pacific side. The hike in September was also widely expected by the market, which forecast a $0.90-$1.05 per barrel rise for the Arab Light grade for Asian shipments. Saudi Arabia also lifted the official selling prices (OSPs) for the other grades, Arab Extra Light, Arab Medium, and Arab Heavy, by between $0.70 and $1.20 per barrel above benchmarks. The second consecutive increase in prices suggests that Saudi Arabia expect continued robust demand in its key exporting region, Asia, in the coming weeks. A potential reduction of Russian supply to India, due to the new tariffs, could also boost the demand for Saudi and other Middle Eastern crude shipments to Asia next month and going forward. Earlier this week, Saudi Aramco expressed a very bullish view on demand in the second half of the year, with president and CEO Amin Nasser saying “Market fundamentals remain strong and we anticipate oil demand in the second half of 2025 to be more than two million barrels per day higher than the first half.”
Russian Urals Crude Offered to China at a Discount -Russia’s Urals crude grade, which usually goes from the western Russian ports to India, is now being offered at discounts in China amid uncertainties over Indian purchases of Moscow’s oil following the additional tariffs. Spot Urals shipments going to China would be a significant re-routing of the Russian oil export flows.Prompt Urals cargoes are now being pitched to Chinese buyers, who typically import the Far Eastern Russian grade ESPO. Urals is being offered at a premium of $1.50 over London Brent, down from a $2.50 a barrel premium last week, traders familiar with the trade offers told Bloomberg. China is the top buyer of Russian crude, but most of its imports consist of the ESPO grade shipped from Russia’s port of Kozmino in the Far East. Urals, on the other hand, is being shipped from the ports in western Russia to India and China hasn’t imported much of the grade due to higher shipping costs and longer voyages.However, with the hiked U.S. tariffs on India over its imports of Russian crude, trade flows have started to shift.The biggest Indian state-owned refiners are pulling out of spot purchases of Russian crude for cargoes loading in October, sources familiar with the procurement plans told Bloomberg on Thursday, a day after the U.S. announced an additional 25% tariff on India over its imports of crude from Russia. Indian state-owned refiners have secured on the spot market at least 22 million barrels innon-Russian crude for delivery in September and October, due to the tariff threat.U.S. President Donald Trump signed on Wednesday an executive order enacting an additional 25% tariff on Indian goods, explicitly targeting India’s ongoing imports of Russian crude oil. The overall 50% tariff on Indian goods will take effect 21 days after August 6. Even if China stepped up Urals spot purchases, it is unlikely to that it could absorb all the crude Indian refiners have been importing, analysts told Bloomberg.
Iraq Says Oil Exports via Turkey to Resume Any Minute --Crude oil exports from Iraq’s semi-autonomous region of Kurdistan to a Turkish Mediterranean port will resume either on Wednesday or Thursday, the federal Iraqi Oil Minister, Hayan Abdul Ghani, told state news agencyINA today. Abdul Ghani was visiting the Kirkuk province in Kurdistan, where he confirmed to the Iraqi News Agency (INA) that the export resumption – after a two-year halt – is imminent. The federal government in Baghdad and the regional Kurdish government in Erbil have been squabbling for more than two years over who should be responsible for the oil exports and the subsequent revenue distribution.The federal authorities say Baghdad should have sole discretion in handling oil exports and oil revenues.Oil exports from Kurdistan have now been halted for nearly two and a half years, after they were shut in in March 2023 due to a dispute over who should authorize the Kurdish exports. Despite some breakthroughs in negotiations in recent months, the disagreements have continued. Before the halt to exports, oil supply from Kurdistan averaged more than 400,000 barrels per day (bpd). The federal government and Kurdistan have reached an agreement and the semi-autonomous region will begin handing over crude output to Iraq’s state marketing firm SOMO for export, minister Abdul Ghani said today. “We will resume oil exports via the Turkish Ceyhan pipeline today or tomorrow, with an initial phase of exporting 80,000 barrels per day, following the agreement with the Kurdistan Region,” INA quoted the minister as saying. However, four industry sources with knowledge of the matter told Reuters on Wednesday that there was no sign that the Iraq-Turkey pipeline would resume exports imminently. Iraq has said exports were to resume in the middle of July, but then a wave of drone attacks on oilfields in Kurdistan forced companies to shut in production and plans for the pipeline restart were delayed.
OPEC+ to Raise Oil Production by 547,000 bbl/d in September 2025 -The eight OPEC+ member countries decided to raise oil production by 547,000 barrels per day (bbl/d) in September 2025 from the August 2025 required production level. This adjustment was the result of the steady global economic outlook and current healthy market fundamentals, according to OPEC+ statement. This amount of production is equivalent to four monthly increases, the statement explained. It noted that this adjustment could be paused or reversed, based on the market status. The statement reported that this action will give a chance to the participating countries to accelerate their compensation. In July 2025, OPEC+ approved a production adjustment of 548,000 bbl/d to take effect in August.
OPEC increases oil production to stop the price increase - OPEC raised oil production in October to the highest level since 2016 as higher output, led by the United Arab Emirates and Libya, more than offset a disruption in Iranian supplies due to US sanctions. widow. The 15-member Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries produced 33.31 million barrels per day this month, the most for all OPEC countries since December 2016. OPEC agreed in June to pump more oil after pressure from US President Donald Trump to curb rising prices and offset an expected shortfall in Iranian exports. The price of oil hit a four-year high of $86.74 a barrel on Oct. 3, but has since eased to $76 as worries about dwindling supplies faded. "Oil producers appear to be successfully compensating for supply disruptions from Iran and Venezuela," said Carsten Fritsch, analyst at Commerzbank in Frankfurt.
Global Oil Prices Decline Amid OPEC+ Output Boost and U.S. Economic Concerns - Oil prices continued to decline on Monday following a decision by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) to implement another significant production increase in September, amid growing concerns over a slowdown in the U.S. economy, the world’s largest oil consumer.According to Bloomberg News, Brent crude futures fell by 40 cents to settle at $69.27 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) dropped 37 cents, reaching $66.96 per barrel.On Sunday, OPEC+ agreed to raise oil production by 547,000 barrels per day in September, marking the latest in a series of accelerated output hikes aimed at regaining market share. The group cited economic strength and declining inventories as key reasons behind the move. Analysts at Goldman Sachs project that the actual increase in supply from the eight countries that have ramped up production since March could reach 1.7 million barrels per day, or about two-thirds of the announced increase, due to production cuts by other members who had previously overproduced.
Oil Prices Climb Amid Rising U.S.-Russia Tensions --Oil prices edged higher on Monday, driven by geopolitical tensions between the United States and Russia, despite the decision by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) to increase oil output in September. Brent crude, the international benchmark, rose 0.30% to $69.48 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude climbed 1.86% to $66.77, up from the previous close of $65.55. The market’s reaction was influenced by rising friction between U.S. President Donald Trump and former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev, as well as provocative rhetoric involving nuclear submarines. These developments have reignited concerns over global energy security. On Sunday, OPEC+ announced that eight member countries—Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman—would raise oil production by a combined 547,000 barrels per day (bpd) in September. This increase is part of a gradual rollback of 2.2 million bpd in voluntary output cuts that began in April. The group emphasized that this plan remains flexible and could be paused or reversed based on evolving market conditions. Despite the additional supply, oil prices remained supported by tightening U.S. crude inventories and uncertainty surrounding global political developments. “Tensions between Washington and Moscow are again shaping market sentiment,” said Daniel Hynes, senior commodity strategist at ANZ. “While the supply increase would typically pressure prices, geopolitical risks are keeping bullish sentiment alive for now.” The Energy Information Administration (EIA) recently reported that U.S. crude inventories remain tight, adding to the upward pressure on prices. At the same time, weak U.S. job growth in July—only 73,000 new jobs versus expectations of over 150,000—has renewed expectations that the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates in September to stimulate the economy. Lower interest rates typically weaken the U.S. dollar, making oil cheaper for buyers using other currencies and boosting demand. Meanwhile, President Trump escalated rhetoric against Russia, announcing the deployment of two U.S. nuclear submarines in response to Medvedev’s veiled threat involving Russia’s Cold War-era “Dead Hand” nuclear response system. Medvedev had warned that Western pressure could push the Ukraine conflict into a broader confrontation involving the U.S. In response, Trump shortened a previously announced 50-day deadline for Russia to end the war in Ukraine to just over a week, threatening new sanctions and secondary tariffs. He also took to Truth Social to warn Medvedev to “watch his words,” calling the Russian’s comments “highly provocative” and a threat to international security. “These foolish and inflammatory statements cannot be ignored,” Trump said. “We’ve repositioned our forces just in case.” Analysts warn that while global oil supply is increasing, political instability and military posturing could maintain volatility in the market. “For now, geopolitical risks are balancing out the bearish fundamentals from supply growth,” said Hynes. “But if tensions escalate further, energy markets could see sharper price reactions in the coming weeks.”
Oil falls as OPEC+ output hike adds to oversupply concerns (Reuters) - Oil prices fell to their lowest levels in a week on Monday after OPEC+ agreed to another large output increase in September, adding to oversupply concerns after U.S. data showed lacklustre fuel demand in the top consuming nation.Brent crude futures fell 91 cents, or 1.3%, to settle at $68.76 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude declined by $1.04, or 1.5%, to close at $66.29 a barrel. Both contracts settled at their lowest in a week, after declining close to 3% on Friday.The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, together known as OPEC+, agreed on Sunday to raise oil production by 547,000 barrels per day (bpd) for September.The latest in a series of accelerated output increases aimed at capturing market share was in line with market expectations and marks a full and early reversal of the group's largest tranche of output cuts, amounting to about 2.5 million bpd, or about 2.4% of global demand. While the group cited healthy market fundamentals to back its decision, data released by the U.S. government last week showed theweakest gasoline demand in May, the start of the country's summer driving season, since the COVID-19 pandemic of 2020.The data also showed U.S. oil production at a monthly record high in May, adding to global oversupply concerns.Oil traders are now hedging for the possibility of further supply increases from OPEC+, with potential discussions to unwind a further 1.65 million bpd of cuts at the group's next meeting on September 7 adding pressure to oil prices."OPEC+ retains a substantial amount of spare production capacity, and markets are now watching closely to see whether the group will tap into it," StoneX analyst Alex Hodes said."So far, there are no clear signals that OPEC+ intends to deploy this additional capacity, but the possibility remains on the table," he added.Analysts at Goldman Sachs expect the actual increase in supply from the eight OPEC+ countries that have raised output since March will be 1.7 million bpd because other members have cut output after overproducing.Investors also continued to digest the impact of the latest U.S. tariffs on exports from dozens of trading partners, and remain wary of further U.S. sanctions on Russia.U.S. President Donald Trump has threatened to impose 100% secondary tariffs on Russian crude buyers as he seeks to pressure Moscow into halting its war in Ukraine.Trump on Monday said he will substantially raise tariffs on India over its purchases of Russian oil, after two Indian government sources told Reuters over the weekend that the country will keep buying oil from Moscow despite Trump's threats.That development helped limit oil's losses. About 1.7 million bpd of crude supply will be at risk if Indian refiners stop buying Russian oil, ING analysts said in a note."All eyes in the market will now shift to U.S. President Trump's decision on Russia this Friday and whether he targets buyers of Russian oil with secondary sanctions/tariffs or not,"
Oil prices continue to fall following OPEC+ output raise By -- Oil prices slipped lower Tuesday, continuing recent losses as traders fretted over increased production and deteriorating demand amid increased global economic headwinds.At 08:05 ET (12:05 GMT), Brent oil futures for September fell 0.8% to $68.21 a barrel and West Texas Intermediate crude futures fell 1% to $65.65 a barrel. Both contracts fell by more than 1% on Monday to settle at their lowest in a week.The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies, a group known as OPEC+, over the weekend agreed to hike production by 547,000 barrel per day for a second consecutive month. The move was the latest in a series of production hikes by the cartel this year, as it seeks to unwind production cuts over the past three years, while also reclaiming a greater share of the oil market. The OPEC+ hike points to increased supply in the coming months, despite concerns over deteriorating demand as global economic growth cools. Weak nonfarm payrolls data from the U.S. was a major point of concern for oil markets, as they feared a demand slowdown in the world’s biggest fuel consumer. The data added to uncertainty over the U.S. economy, especially as markets feared the impact of U.S. President Donald Trump’s trade tariffs. Dismal purchasing managers index data from top oil importer China also weighed on oil last week, as the country logged a bigger-than-expected contraction in manufacturing activity.Still, oil marked some gains last week after Trump threatened to impose even more severe sanctions on Russian oil in an attempt to coax Moscow to end the country’s long-running war with Ukraine. Trump had recently threatened to tariff Russia’s biggest oil buyers – China and India. The U.S. president last week slapped a 25% tariff on India, and warned of a bigger penalty if the South Asian country did not immediately cease its buying of Russian crude. Trump repeated this threat on Monday. "This puts in the region of 1.7m b/d of supply at risk if Indian refiners stop buying Russian oil," said analysts at ING, in a note. "If there are no other willing buyers for this oil, it would erase the expected surplus through the fourth quarter and 2026. It would also possibly provide OPEC+ the opportunity to start unwinding the next tranche of supply cuts totaling 1.66m b/d." "Less has been said about the flow of Russian oil to China. If the U.S. successfully targets these flows as well, it will leave the market considerably tighter and require OPEC+ to tap even deeper into its spare production capacity."
The Market Weighed the Increasing OPEC+ Output – The crude market on Tuesday continued to trend lower as the market weighed the increasing OPEC+ output and concerns over weaker demand against U.S. President Donald Trump’s threats to India over its Russian oil imports. The market posted a high of $66.39 in overnight trading. However, the market’s gains were limited as President Trump again threatened higher tariffs on India’s exports over its Russian oil purchases. President Trump also stated that declining energy prices could pressure Russia’s President Vladimir Putin to halt its war in Ukraine. The oil market sold off to a low of $65.03 early in the afternoon and later settled in a sideways trading range during the remainder of the session. The September WTI contract settled down $1.13 at $65.16 and the October Brent contract settled down $1.12 at $67.64. The product market also settled in negative territory, with the heating oil market settling down 6.74 cents at $2.2502 and the RB market settling down 1.07 cents at $2.0915. U.S. President Donald Trump said declining energy prices could pressure Russian President Vladimir Putin to halt the war in Ukraine. Last week, U.S. President Donald Trump set a deadline for August 8th for President Putin to move to end the war in Ukraine or face tougher U.S. sanctions. His administration has also been pressuring India and China to stop buying Russian oil. He said that the fall in energy prices was due to increased production, including by the OPEC countries and others, and he expected further declines.The Financial Times reported that U.S. President Donald Trump’s administration is considering additional sanctions on Russia’s ‘shadow fleet’ of oil tankers if President Vladimir Putin does not agree to a ceasefire in Ukraine by Friday.U.S. President Donald Trump said the U.S. was close to a trade deal with China and that he would meet his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping before the end of the year if an agreement is struck. In regards to India, President Donald Trump said he would increase the tariff charged on imports from India from the current rate of 25% “very substantially” over the next 24 hours, given India’s continued purchases of Russian oil. He did not provide a new tariff rate for India.Russia’s oil data shows that its crude output was slightly over the country’s OPEC+ target in July. Russia’s crude output increased to 9.13 million bpd in July, which is about 27,000 bpd over the required level for the month and the second time this year that output slightly exceeded the country’s target. Chevron and Valero Energy are working to resume a supply agreement of Venezuelan crude to be refined in the United States under an agreement that was on pause, following a new license granted to the U.S. oil major. As Chevron waits for Venezuela’s PDVSA to allocate cargoes for August delivery, Chevron and Valero are negotiating details of their agreement, including resuming a ship-to-ship operation off Aruba. Valero’s cargo transfer off Aruba could restart as soon as this month, following mandatory inspections and vessel contracts in negotiation.
Oil prices fall as OPEC+ output hikes counter Russia disruption concerns (Reuters) - Oil prices slipped on Tuesday as rising OPEC+ supply and worries of weaker global demand countered concern about U.S. President Donald Trump's threats to India over its Russian oil purchases. Brent crude futures settled $1.12, or 1.63%, lower to $67.64 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude slipped $1.13, or 1.7%, to $65.16. Both benchmarks settled to their lowest in five weeks. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, together known as OPEC+, agreed on Sunday to raise oil production by 547,000 barrels per day for September, a move that will end its most recent output cut earlier than planned. "The significant increase in OPEC supplies is weighing on the market," Also weighing on prices, U.S. services sector activity unexpectedly flatlined in July with little change in orders and a further weakening in employment even as input costs climbed by the most in nearly three years, underscoring the ongoing drag of uncertainty over the Trump administration's tariff policy on businesses. "The market now is going to see if India and China agree to substantially reduce the purchases of Russian crude oil, thereby looking for alternative supplies elsewhere," Lipow said. Trump on Tuesday again threatened higher tariffs on Indian goods over the country's Russian oil purchases over the next 24 hours. Trump also said declining energy prices could pressure Russian President Vladimir Putin to halt the war in Ukraine. New Delhi called Trump's threat "unjustified" and vowed to protect its economic interests, deepening a trade rift between the two countries. Oil's move since Trump's threat indicates that traders are skeptical of a supply disruption happening, John Evans of oil broker PVM said in a report. He questioned whether Trump would risk higher oil prices. "I'd call it a stable market for oil," said Giovanni Staunovo, an analyst at UBS. "Assume this likely continues until we figure out what the U.S. president announces in respect to Russia later this week and how those buyers would react." India is the biggest buyer of seaborne crude from Russia, importing about 1.75 million bpd from January to June this year, up 1% from a year ago, according to data provided to Reuters by trade sources. U.S. crude inventories fell by 4.2 million barrels last week, sources citing American Petroleum Institute figures said on Tuesday. The U.S. Energy Information Administration is due to release weekly U.S. inventory data on Wednesday, respectively,
Oil prices rise as Trump threatens tariffs on India over Russian oil purchases -- Oil prices rose on Wednesday amid supply concerns after US President Donald Trump threatened to impose tariffs on India for buying oil from Russia. International benchmark Brent crude was trading at $67.97 per barrel at 10.44 a.m. local time (0744 GMT), up 0.74% from the previous session's close of $67.47. American benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose 0.72% to $65.04 per barrel, from $64.57 in the previous session. Trump's special envoy Steve Witkoff arrived in Moscow to discuss the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war, according to the Russian RT channel. Earlier, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said a face-to-face meeting between Witkoff and Russian President Vladimir Putin remains a possibility. Witkoff's visit comes as Trump threatens sweeping new sanctions on Russia, including 100% tariffs and secondary measures against its trade partners, if tangible progress is not made toward resolving the conflict. The trip also precedes an Aug. 8 deadline set by Trump for Russia to agree to a ceasefire deal with Ukraine. Earlier, Trump said he would decide on sanctions against Russia based on the outcome of Witkoff's meetings in Russia. On Sunday, Trump wrote on Truth Social that he would impose higher tariffs on India, accusing New Delhi of profiting from the resale of Russian oil. Without providing further details on the scope or timeline of the tariff hike, the US president said: "They don’t care how many people in Ukraine are being killed by the Russian War Machine. Because of this, I will be substantially raising the Tariff paid by India to the USA." Also, data showing a drop in US crude inventories supported the rise in oil prices. US commercial crude oil inventories fell by 4.2 million barrels last week, according to data from the American Petroleum Institute, signaling a recovery in demand in the world's largest oil consumer. The US Energy Information Administration is scheduled to release official inventory data later in the day. Meanwhile, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies, known as OPEC+, announced on August 3 that eight member countries will raise oil output by a combined 547,000 barrels per day in September compared to August, as part of efforts to regain global market share.
WTI Prices Hold Post-India Decline Despite Big Crude Draw, Production Drop -Oil prices have traded in a volatile range overnight as API reported a big crude draw and then President Trump announced 25% additional tariffs on India due to their oil purchases from Russia. “The pressure on India to displace Russian barrels continues, and there are no signs of either the US or India backing down,” said Keshav Lohiya, founder of consultant Oilytics. All eyes now on the official data to see if it confirms the big crude draw from API... API
- Crude -4.2mm
- Cushing +1.7mm
- Gasoline -900k
- Distillates +1.6mm
DOE
- Crude -3.029mm
- Cushing +453k
- Gasoline -1.323mm
- Distillates-565k
After a big build the prior week, Crude stocks fell last week (confirming the API report). Stocks at the Cushing Hub rose for the 5th straight week while Gasoline inventories fell for the 3rd week in a row... Total US commercial crude stocks fell for the 3rd week in the last 4, even with the addition of 235k barrels to the SPR... US Crude production remains just off record highs even as the rig count continues to tumble... WTI Crude prices held their losses from the India tariff news but remain higher on the day... Graphs Source: Bloomberg Oil has edged lower in recent sessions following a three-month run of gains, with traders weighing headwinds to growth in the US that may hurt energy demand, as well as moves by OPEC+ to roll back output curbs. Last weekend, the alliance agreed to hike production again in September, boosting concerns that global supplies will run ahead of consumption this half.
Oil Prices Slip Amid Sanctions Uncertainty, Tariff Hikes, and Geopolitical Tensions -The oil market posted an outside trading day on Wednesday and ended the session lower after U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio indicated there would be an announcement later on Wednesday on whether sanctions against Russia over its war in Ukraine would proceed this week. The market traded sideways in overnight trading as the market continued to focus on U.S. President Donald Trump threatening India with higher tariffs over its Russian crude purchases. The market rallied to a high of $66.75 following the news that President Trump signed an executive order raising U.S. tariffs on imports from India to 50% from 25% because of India’s purchases of Russian oil. However, prices seesawed after the U.S. Secretary of State raised questions about whether potential Russian sanctions will proceed. It was also despite a larger than expected draw in crude stocks of over 3 million barrels in the week ending August 1st. The oil market extended its losses to over 90 cents as it posted a low of $64.21 ahead of the close. The September WTI contract settled down 81 cents at $64.35 and continued to trend lower, posting a new low of $63.64 in the post settlement period on news that President Trump plans to meet with Russia’s President Vladimir Putin as early as next week and then plans to meet with both Russia’s President and Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskiy. The October Brent contract settled down 75 cents at $66.89. The product markets ended the session in mixed territory, with the heating oil market settling up 1.26 cents at $2.2628 and the RB market settling down 11 points at $2.0904. U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff held talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin in the Kremlin on Wednesday, two days before the expiry of a deadline set by U.S. President Donald Trump for Russia to agree to peace in Ukraine or face new sanctions. Kremlin foreign policy aide, Yuri Ushakov, said talks between Russian President Vladimir Putin and U.S. special envoy Steve Witkoff were “useful and constructive”. He said that the two sides discussed the conflict in Ukraine and the potential for improving U.S.-Russia relations. He said Moscow had received certain “signals” from U.S. President Donald Trump and had sent messages in return. Later, President Trump said his special envoy Steve Witkoff had made “great progress” in his meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin. Earlier, Bloomberg and independent Russian news outlet The Bell reported that the Kremlin might propose a moratorium on air strikes by Russia and Ukraine, an idea that was mentioned last week by Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko during a meeting with Putin. Iraq’s Oil Minister, Hayan Abdel-Ghani said on Wednesday that oil exports through Turkey’s Ceyhan pipeline will resume later today or Thursday after a two-year hiatus. He said an agreement had been concluded with the Kurdistan Regional Government to resume the oil exports via the pipeline. He said that “80,000 barrels per day will be exported via Turkey’s Ceyhan pipeline through SOMO.” Sources said there was no sign of an imminent restart to oil exports through the pipeline. Saudi Arabia has raised the official selling price for its flagship Arab light crude it sells to Asia in September to the Oman/Dubai average plus $3.20/barrel above the Oman/Dubai average, up $1 on the month. The official selling price of its Arab Light crude bound for the U.S. was set at ASCI plus $4.20/barrel and the price of its Arab Light crude bound for Northwest Europe was set at ICE Brent plus $3.35/barrel.
Oil prices rise by 1% after five days of decline - Komersant Ukrainian -On Thursday, oil prices rose by 1%, breaking a five-day losing streak, due to signs of stable demand in the United States, the world’s largest oil consumer. At the same time, uncertainty over the macroeconomic impact of US tariffs limited growth, "Komersant Ukrainian" reports citing Reuters. Brent crude oil futures rose 62 cents (0.9%) to $67.51 per barrel as of 06:42 Kyiv time. U.S. WTI crude rose 68 cents (1.1%) to $65.03 per barrel.On Wednesday, both benchmarks fell by about 1% to their lowest levels in eight weeks after US President Donald Trump’ s statements about progress in negotiations with Moscow.According to a White House official, Trump may meet with Russian President Putin next week. At the same time, the United States continues to prepare for the introduction of secondary sanctions, possibly against China, to force Moscow to end the war in Ukraine.Russia is the second largest producer of crude oil after the United States. Oil markets were supported by a decline in US crude stockpiles last week. The Energy Information Administration reported that U.S. crude oil inventories fell by 3 million barrels to 423.7 million barrels in the week ended August 1. This exceeded the forecasts of Reuters analysts, who expected a decrease of 591 thousand barrels.Stocks declined due to rising U.S. oil exports and increased refinery utilization. Capacity utilization on the Gulf Coast – the country’s largest oil refining region – and the West Coast has reached its highest level since 2023.JP Morgan analysts noted that global oil demand averaged 104.7 million barrels per day by August 5, which corresponds to an annual increase of 300 thousand barrels per day, but 90 thousand barrels below their forecast for the month. “Despite a somewhat weaker start to the month than we expected, high-frequency oil demand indicators suggest that global oil consumption is likely to improve steadily over the coming weeks,” the analysts said, expecting consumption to rise thanks to aviation fuel and petrochemical feedstocks. However, global macroeconomic uncertainty after the US imposed new tariffs on Indian goods has limited price increases. On Wednesday, Trump imposed an additional 25% duty on Indian goods, citing continued imports of Russian oil. The new import tax will take effect on August 28.“Although these new duties are set to take effect in three weeks, markets are already pricing in further impacts on trade flows, emerging market demand, and broader energy diplomacy,” said Priyanka Sachdeva, senior analyst at Phillip Nova.Trump also said that he may announce additional tariffs on China, similar to the 25% tariffs previously imposed on India over its purchases of Russian oil. “The tariffs are likely to hurt the global economy, which will ultimately affect fuel demand,” Sachdeva said, adding that markets are not taking into account the fact that the impact on the US economy and inflation will be much greater.
3 Million Barrel Draw in Crude Stocks Reported by the EIA - Following an outside trading session on Wednesday, the oil market on Thursday posted an inside trading day amid the expectation of a diplomatic end to the war in Ukraine. In overnight trading, the crude market retraced some of Wednesday’s losses as the market focused on the 3 million barrel draw in crude stocks reported by the EIA, Saudi Arabia raising its crude prices for crude bound for Asia in September and a year on year increase in China’s crude imports in July. The market posted a high of $65.11 early Thursday morning. However, the market erased its earlier gains and sold off after the Kremlin confirmed that Russia’s President Vladimir Putin would meet U.S. President Donald Trump in the coming days raising the prospects of a breakthrough the end to end the war in Ukraine. The market posted a low of $63.76 ahead of the close. The September WTI contract settled down 47 cents at $63.88 and the October Brent contract settled down 46 cents at $66.43. The product market also settled in mixed territory, with the heating oil market settling up 4 ticks at $2.2668 and the RB market settling down 1.29 cents at $2.0775.Kremlin aide Yuri Ushakov said Russia’s President Vladimir Putin and U.S. President Donald Trump will meet in the coming days, in what would be the first summit between leaders of the two countries since 2021.Separately, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy spoke on Thursday with the leaders of France and Germany and with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, and said Europe must be involved in the peace process.U.S. President Donald Trump said he could announce further tariffs on China similar to the 25% duties announced on India over its purchases of Russian oil, depending on what happens. On Wednesday, President Trump imposed an additional 25% tariff on Indian goods, on top of a 25% tariff announced previously, citing its continued purchases of Russian oil. The White House order did not mention China, which is another big purchaser of Russian oil. Last week, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent warned China that it could also face new tariffs if it continued buying Russian oil.U.S. crude oil exports eased in July to the lowest levels in nearly four years as low domestic supplies increased prices for West Texas Intermediate crude futures relative to the global benchmark Brent and hurt demand abroad. According to data from ship tracking firm Kpler, crude exports fell to about 3.1 million bpd in July, the lowest since October 2021.According to the EIA, exports averaged 3.2 million bpd over the last five weeks, compared with 3.6 million bpd in June. Kpler data reported that exports of U.S. crude to Asia fell to 862,000 bpd in July, the lowest since January 2019, and well below the three-month average of 1.1 million bpd. Meanwhile, exports to Europe fell 14% to 1.6 million bpd from June. According to shipping data and sources, at least three vessels that Chevron had used to transport Venezuelan crude to the U.S. are navigating towards the country’s water, with exports expected to resume later this month following a new U.S. license.
Oil falls on announcement of Trump-Putin meeting (Reuters) - Oil prices dropped on Thursday for a sixth consecutive session after the Kremlin said Russian President Vladimir Putin would meet U.S. President Donald Trump in the coming days, raising expectations for a diplomatic end to the war in Ukraine. Brent crude futures settled down 46 cents, or 0.7%, at $66.43 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude fell 47 cents, or 0.7%, to $63.88. Both benchmarks slid about 1% on Wednesday, touching their lowest in eight weeks, after comments from Trump on progress in talks with Moscow. Kremlin aide Yuri Ushakov said on Thursday that Trump and Putin would meet in the coming days in what would be the first summit between leaders of the two countries since 2021. A White House official had previously said that Trump could meet Putin as soon as next week. The U.S., however, continued preparations to impose secondary sanctions on major buyers of Russian energy products to try to pressure Moscow to end the war in Ukraine. Russia is the world's second-biggest producer of oil behind the United States. The U.S. ordered a new set of tariffs on Indian goods. Trump imposed an additional 25% tariff on Indian goods on Wednesday, citing the country's continued imports of Russian oil. The new import tax will take effect on August 28. India is the second-biggest buyer of Russian oil after China. Trump also said he could announce further tariffs on China. Oil prices have dropped over 9% over the last week. "Additional increases in OPEC production remain as the overriding negative consideration while continued tariff uncertainties are still providing the main argument favoring lower price levels," analysts at energy advisory firm Ritterbusch and Associates said in a note. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies including Russia, together known as OPEC+, on Sunday to raise oil production by 547,000 barrels per day for September. Thursday's selling was limited by a crude stockpile drawdown in the U.S., higher Saudi prices for Asia and solid Chinese crude imports in July, said UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo. The Energy Information Administration said on Wednesday that U.S. crude oil stockpiles fell by 3 million barrels to 423.7 million barrels in the week ended August 1, exceeding an expected decline of 591,000 barrels in a Reuters poll of analysts. In China, crude oil imports in July fell by 5.4% from June but were still up 11.5% year-on-year, with analysts expecting refining activity to remain firm in the near term. Saudi Arabia, the world's biggest oil exporter, on Wednesday raised its September crude oil prices for Asian buyers, the second monthly rise in a row, on tight supply and robust demand.
Oil set for steepest weekly losses since June on tariffs, Trump-Putin talks -- Oil prices fell on Friday, heading for their steepest weekly losses since late June as the latest round of U.S. tariffs weighed on the economic outlook and likely upcoming Trump-Putin talks raised the prospect of an ease in sanctions on Russia. Brent crude futures were down 51 cents to $65.92 a barrel at 0630 GMT, on track to decline more than 4% week-over-week. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures were down 57 cents, or 0.89%, to $63.31 a barrel, set to fall nearly 6% on a weekly basis. Higher U.S. tariffs against a host of trade partners went into effect on Thursday. The tariffs raised concerns of weaker economic activity, which would hit demand for crude oil, ANZ Bank analysts said in a note, and came against the backdrop of an already weaker-than-expected U.S. labour market. A Kremlin announcement on Thursday that Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump would meet in the coming days meanwhile raised expectations of a diplomatic end to the war in Ukraine. That is widely expected to result in eased sanctions on Russia, which could unleash more barrels onto an oversupplied market. Trump earlier this week had threatened to hike tariffs on India if it kept buying Russian oil, which the market viewed as putting further pressure on Russia to reach a deal with the U.S., independent market analyst Tina Teng told Reuters. Trump on Wednesday also said China, the largest buyer of Russian crude oil, could be hit with tariffs similar to those being levied against Indian imports. Oil prices were already reeling from the OPEC+ group's decision last weekend to fully unwind its largest tranche of output cuts in September, months ahead of target. At Thursday's close, WTI futures had dropped for six consecutive sessions, matching a declining streak last recorded in December 2023. If prices settle lower on Friday, it will be the longest streak since August 2021.
Oil ticks down on reports of US-Russia deal - Oil prices edged lower on Friday and were poised for the steepest weekly losses since late June on reports of a deal between U.S. and Russia, and a tariff-hit economic outlook. Brent crude futures were down 7 cents at $66.36 a barrel by 11:18 a.m ET (1518 GMT). U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures eased 21 cents, or 0.3%, to $63.67. Brent was on track to fall 4.8% over the week, while WTI was set to finish 5.5% lower than last Friday’s close. Washington and Moscow are aiming to reach a deal to halt the war in Ukraine that would lock in Russia’s occupation of territory seized during its military invasion, Bloomberg News reported on Friday. U.S. and Russian officials are working towards an agreement on territories for a planned summit meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin as early as next week, the report said, citing people familiar with the matter. The potential meeting raises expectations of a diplomatic end to the war in Ukraine, which could lead to eased sanctions on Russia, and come as trade tensions have been on the rise between Trump and buyers of Russian oil. This week, Trump threatened to increase tariffs on India if it kept buying Russian oil. Trump also said China, the largest buyer of Russian crude, could be hit with tariffs similar to those levied against Indian imports. Meanwhile, higher U.S. tariffs on imports from a host of trade partners went into effect on Thursday, raising concern over economic activity and demand for crude oil, ANZ Bank analysts said in a note. “Various non-oil considerations are at play, including fears over the impact of tariffs and the headlines flying over the last few days regarding a Trump and Putin meeting in the near term,” said Neil Crosby, an energy market analyst at Sparta Commodities. “Headline risk is particularly strong currently with flip-flopping regarding who will turn up to a meeting over Ukraine and under what circumstances.” Trump on Thursday also said he will nominate Council of Economic Advisers Chairman Stephen Miran to serve out the final few months of a newly vacant seat at the Federal Reserve, fuelling expectations of a more dovish policy ahead. Lower interest rates reduce consumer borrowing costs and can boost economic growth and demand for oil. The dollar firmed on Friday but headed for a weekly fall. A stronger dollar hurts demand for dollar-denominated crude from foreign buyers.
Oil steadies on reports of US-Russia deal, ends week about 5% lower (Reuters) - Oil held steady on Friday as markets awaited a meeting in coming days between Russian president Vladimir Putin and his U.S. counterpart Donald Trump, but prices marked their steepest weekly losses since late June on a tariff-hit economic outlook. Brent crude futures settled 16 cents, or 0.2%, higher at $66.59 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures were unchanged at $63.88. Brent fell 4.4% over the week, while WTI finished 5.1% lower than last Friday's close. U.S. crude fell over 1% earlier in the session after Bloomberg News reported that Washington and Moscow were aiming to reach a deal to halt the war in Ukraine that would lock in Russia's occupation of territory seized during its military invasion. U.S. and Russian officials are working towards an agreement on territories for a planned summit meeting between Trump and Putin as early as next week, the report said, citing people familiar with the matter. The potential meeting raises expectations of a diplomatic end to the war in Ukraine, which could lead to eased sanctions on Russia, and comes as trade tensions have been on the rise between Trump and buyers of Russian oil. This week, Trump threatened to increase tariffs on India if it kept purchasing Russian oil. Trump also said China, the largest buyer of Russian crude, could be hit with tariffs similar to those levied against Indian imports. "Various non-oil considerations are at play, including fears over the impact of tariffs and the headlines flying over the last few days regarding a Trump and Putin meeting in the near term," "Headline risk is particularly strong currently with flip-flopping regarding who will turn up to a meeting over Ukraine and under what circumstances." Higher U.S. tariffs on imports from a host of trade partners went into effect on Thursday, raising concern over economic activity and demand for crude oil, ANZ Bank analysts said in a note. OPEC+ agreed on Sunday to raise oil production by 547,000 barrels per day for September, the latest in a series of accelerated output hikes to regain market share, adding to supply. The U.S. oil rig count, an indicator of future supply, rose by one to 411 this week. "Bearish sentiment has returned this week as key OPEC+ members announced a second 'quadruple' output unwind for September (thus fully restoring their extra voluntary cuts of 2.2 mmb/d) and President Trump's sweeping import tariffs took effect against most countries," Trump on Thursday also said he will nominate Council of Economic Advisers Chairman Stephen Miran to serve out the final few months of a newly vacant seat at the Federal Reserve, fuelling expectations of a more dovish policy ahead. Lower interest rates reduce consumer borrowing costs and can boost economic growth and demand for oil. The dollar firmed on Friday but headed for a weekly fall. A stronger dollar hurts demand for dollar-denominated crude from foreign buyers. Money managers cut their net long U.S. crude futures and options positions in the week to August 5, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) said.
Russia Strikes Key Ukraine Gas Interconnector on Romania Border, Disrupts LNG Imports - (Reuters) — Russia has struck a gas pumping station in Ukraine's southern Odesa region used in a scheme to import LNG from the U.S. and Azerbaijan, undermining preparations for winter, Ukrainian officials said on Aug. 6. President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said the gas infrastructure had been attacked in the village of Novosilske on the border with Romania, where the Orlovka interconnector, through which Ukraine receives gas via the Transbalkan route, is located. "This was a deliberate blow to our preparations for the heating season, absolutely cynical, like every Russian blow to the energy sector," Zelenskiy said on Telegram. Reuters could not independently confirm details of the attack. Russia's TASS news agency quoted the Russian defense ministry as confirming the attack on Ukraine's gas transport system. Ukraine has faced a serious gas shortage since a series of devastating Russian missile strikes this year, which significantly reduced domestic production. Ukraine's energy ministry said in a statement that the attacked station was used as part of a route connecting Greek LNG terminals with Ukrainian gas storage facilities via the Transbalkan gas pipeline. It noted that it had already been used to deliver LNG from the United States and test volumes of Azerbaijani gas. "This is a Russian strike purely against civilian infrastructure, deliberately targeting the energy sector and, at the same time, relations with Azerbaijan, the United States and partners in Europe, as well as the normal lives of Ukrainians and all Europeans," the ministry said. Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev will meet U.S. President Donald Trump in Washington this week. Russia has repeatedly denied targeting civilians since launching its full-scale invasion of Ukraine more than three years ago, but says infrastructure such as energy systems are legitimate targets because they help Ukraine's war effort. Last month, Ukraine pumped a small test volume of Azerbaijani gas through the Transbalkan route for the first time and announced plans to significantly increase gas imports from Azerbaijan's SOCAR energy firm. Kyiv has called the route "extremely important", as it provides access to liquefied gas from Greek and Turkish LNG terminals, Azerbaijani and Romanian pipeline gas and, potentially, to Bulgarian offshore gas.
NATO Member Scrambles Jets As Russia Destroys Gas Facility Key To Imports From US, Azerbaijan -Russia carried out an overnight drone strike on a crucial gas pumping and metering facility in Ukraine, triggering a large fire at the site, Ukrainian officials reported Wednesday. Importantly the station is part of an LNG imports scheme from the US and Azerbaijan. According to Ukraine’s energy ministry, a wave of drones targeted a metering station located near the Romania-Ukraine border, identified as part of the Transbalkan pipeline system.NATO member Romania scrambled fighter jets in response to the large attack right on its border, Fox News reports: Romania was forced to scramble F-16 jets after Russia carried out a strike just half a mile from the NATO nation's territory. The country's Ministry of National Defense (MApN) confirmed in a post on X that Russia carried out a drone attack near its border."On the night of August 5-6, the Russian forces launched a massive drone attack on the civilian infrastructure in the Ismail area, Ukraine, in the vicinity of the border with Romania," Romania's defense ministry wrote in a post on X."The radar systems of the MApN detected air targets in Ukrainian space, close to Tulcea County. At 1:10a.m., the population in the north of the county was warned via RO-Alert," the ministry added, in reference to Romania’s official emergency warning system.According to more details via Fox:The defense ministry stated that two F-16 fighter jets took off "to monitor the national airspace," but no "unauthorized intrusions" were detected. The ministry said it would carry out checks in the area and keep NATO allies updated in real time.The drones reportedly struck oil and gas pipelines at the Orlivka plant in Odesa, Ukraine. Bright orange flames and plumes of smoke were visible across the Danube River.Russia’s defense ministry acknowledged the intentional attack on Ukraine's gas infrastructure, coming amid a renewed exchange of attacks by both Russia and Ukraine on energy and transport sites generally. So after six months, even the so-called 'energy ceasefire' is clearly off.Ukraine is busy making great efforts to stockpile gas ahead of what's typically a brutally cold winter season. President Zelensky called it deliberate in terms of timing."This was a deliberate and utterly cynical attempt to disrupt our preparations for the heating season," Zelensky said in a social media post on Wednesday. The Transbalkan pipeline had during the Soviet era and after at one time transported Russian gas through Ukraine to several Balkan and Eastern European countries - including Romania, Moldova, Bulgaria, Greece, and Turkey. But Russia ceased using the route in late 2019 after the launch of the TurkStream pipeline beneath the Black Sea. Now the flow direction is being reversed to get gas from external countries into Ukraine.According to Reuters' reporting of the fresh attack: Dozens of Russian drones attacked a gas pumping station in southern Ukraine, part of an LNG imports scheme from the U.S. and Azerbaijan, Ukraine's energy ministry said on Wednesday.The ministry described the strike on the station near the Ukraine-Romania border as directed "purely against civilian infrastructure" and targeting relations with Azerbaijan, the U.S. and European partners.
NATO Countries To Provide Ukraine With Over $1 Billion in US Military Equipment Under New Scheme - - The Netherlands announced on Monday that it would be providing Ukraine with 500 million euros ($578 million) worth of US military equipment, making it the first country to participate in a new NATO scheme to continue fueling the proxy war.“Ukraine needs more air defence and ammunition now,” Dutch Defense Minister Ruben Brekelmanswrote on X on Monday. “As the first NATO Ally, the Netherlands will deliver a €500 million package of US weapon systems (incl. Patriot parts and missiles).”The following day, NATO said in a statement that Sweden, Norway, and Denmark have agreed to finance a $500 million weapons package sourced from the US for Ukraine under the new scheme, which NATO is calling the NATO Prioritised Ukraine Requirements List (PURL) initiative.“The announcement swiftly followed the unveiling of the first package of artillery and ammunition worth more than $500m on Monday (4 August 2025) funded by the Netherlands,” NATO said. “Together, the contributions are valued at over $1bn and represent the first two tranches of regular deliveries to Ukraine under the Alliance’s newly-launched PURL initiative.”President Trump and NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte announced last month a plan to flood “billions of dollars” worth of US weapons into Ukraine that involves NATO countries purchasing the US equipment. The scheme will be another boon for US weapons makers, who have seen huge profits from the war in Ukraine. Matthew Whitaker, the US ambassador to NATO, told Reuters on Monday that the US expects more countries to announce weapons packages in the coming weeks. “The Dutch are just the first of many. You’re going to see a series of announcements in the coming weeks,” he said.
Russia Says It's No Longer Bound by Moratorium on Deployment of INF Missiles -The Russian Foreign Ministry said on Monday that Moscow was no longer bound by a self-imposed moratorium on the deployment of missiles that were previously banned by the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty, which the US withdrew from in 2019.The INF prohibited land-based missile systems with a range between 310 and 3,400 miles. Since pulling out of the treaty, the US has developed a missile launcher, known as a Typhon, that can fire nuclear-capable Tomahawk missiles, which have a range of over 1,000 miles. The US has deployed the Typhon, also known as the Mid-Range Capability System, to the Philippines and briefly to Denmark for drills.The US has also announced plans to deploy missile systems previously banned by the INF to Germany by 2026, and Berlin recently requested to procure its own Typhon system from the US.The Russian Foreign Ministry said in its statement: “With our repeated warnings on that matter having gone ignored and the situation developing towards the de facto deployment of US-made intermediate-and shorter-range ground-based missiles in Europe and the Asia-Pacific region, the Russian Foreign Ministry has to declare that any conditions for the preservation of a unilateral moratorium on the deployment of similar arms no longer exist, and it is further authorized to state that the Russian Federation does not consider itself bound by relevant self-restrictions approved earlier.”The ministry added that the US deployment of INF missiles has led to the “formation and buildup of destabilizing missile potentials in regions adjacent to Russia, creating a direct, strategic threat to the security of our country.” It said that decisions on Moscow’s response would be made by “Russia’s leadership based on an interdepartmental analysis of the scale of deployment of US and other Western ground-based INF missiles.”
Saudi Arabia condemns Israel's decision to occupy Gaza City - Saudi Arabia condemned the Israeli government’s decision to greenlight a military occupation of Gaza City on Friday, calling on the international community to help halt the Israeli military’s “aggressions.”“The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia condemns in the strongest possible terms the decision of the Israeli occupation authorities to occupy the Gaza Strip and categorically condemns their persistence in committing crimes of starvation, brutal practices, and ethnic cleansing against the Palestinian people,” the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Saudi Arabia said.. Israel confirmed Friday morning that it would look to occupy Gaza City, which at one point had around 700,000 residents, but sustained extensive damage from Israeli raids. Jerusalem said that ending the Israel-Hamas war would hinge on releasing some 20 hostages in the war-torn enclave and that an “alternative civil administration that is neither Hamas nor the Palestinian Authority” should be established in Gaza. The decision to move forward with the military operation comes as the international outcry about the humanitarian situation in Gaza has continued, with reports of people suffering from malnutrition. Netanyahu’s decision to proceed on Friday was met with backlash from some European leaders, including British Prime Minister Keir Starmer. Germany said it would pause arms exports that could be used in the Gaza Strip. Saudi Arabia said Friday that the “continued failure” of the international community, along with the United Nations Security Council, to deter Israel from moving forward threatens regional and global peace. Riyadh called for a two-state solution between and that an independent Palestinian state be established with 1967 borders, with the capital being East Jerusalem.
Israeli Forces Kill 135 in Gaza Over 24 Hours, Including 87 People Attempting To Get Aid - Gaza’s Health Ministry said on Wednesday that Israeli forces killed 135 Palestinians and wounded 771 over the previous 24-hour period as US-backed Israeli attacks and IDF massacres of desperate people seeking aid continue.The Health Ministry said another three bodies were recovered from the rubble. “A number of victims are still under the rubble and on the streets, where ambulance and civil defense crews are unable to reach them at this time,” the ministry wrote on Telegram.Gaza hospitals also recorded five more starvation deaths due to the Israeli blockade. “This brings the total number of victims of famine and malnutrition to 193, including 96 children,” the ministry said.The majority of the violent deaths, 87, were among Palestinians attempting to reach aid, and another 570 aid seekers were injured. The ministry said that since the US-backed Gaza Humanitarian Foundation (GHF) began operating in Gaza, at least 1,655 aid seekers have been killed and 11,800 injured.According to The Associated Press, at least 28 people were killed on Wednesday in the Morag Corridor, an Israeli-controlled strip of land that separates Rafah and Khan Younis in southern Gaza, where UN aid convoys have been overwhelmed by starving Palestinians for food. Another 10 people were killed near GHF sites.
Poll: 4 in 5 Jewish Israelis Not Troubled By Situation in Gaza - The ongoing starvation crisis and genocide inflicted on the people of Gaza are not causing concern among most Jewish Israelis, according to a new poll.Israel Democracy Institute reports, “A very large majority of Jewish respondents reported that they are not so troubled or not at all troubled personally by events in Gaza (79%), while the majority of Arabs said that they are very troubled or somewhat troubled (86%).”Officials in Gaza record scores of Palestinians killed by Israel daily. Many of the Palestinians killed in the past two months were attempting to reach aid distribution sites when they were murdered by the IDF.In addition to the large number of Palestinians killed by the IDF, the Israeli siege of Gaza has caused a humanitarian crisis. Sixteen Palestinians starved to death over the weekend, bringing the total to 175.The poll found a division between Israeli Jews identifying on the right and left. Only six percent of right-wing Jews were troubled by the suffering in Gaza, compared to 70% who reported being on the left.Israel Democracy Institute also asked if Israelis believed their government was making the suffering worse in Gaza. Only 15% of Jews believed that Israel could have significantly reduced the suffering of the Palestinians in Gaza.
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