week ending Nov 22

Fed's Waller calls for December rate cut, while Jefferson wants to move 'slowly' - Two Federal Reserve officials are worried about the job market — more so than inflation. Fed governor Chris Waller said Monday that he supports cutting interest rates next month because he's more worried that the job market is weakening than inflation accelerating. Waller noted that it's unlikely the September jobs report later this week or any other data in the next few weeks will change his view that another cut is in order. "The data leads me, at this moment, to support a cut in the FOMC's policy rate at our next meeting on December 9 and 10 as a matter of risk management," Waller said in a speech titled "The Case for Continuing Rate Cuts." "A December cut will provide additional insurance against an acceleration in the weakening of the labor market and move policy toward a more neutral setting," he said. Meanwhile, Fed vice chair Philip Jefferson said Monday that downside risks to employment have increased compared to upside risks to inflation, but that the central bank should move "slowly" when it comes to cutting rates. The two speeches join the growing conversation about what the Fed may do at its final policy meeting of 2025. In recent weeks, several other Fed officials have expressed growing reservations about cutting interest rates for a third time this year, citing inflation concerns. For his part, Waller said data "fog" is not a good reason not to cut, and he believes the labor market is "still weak and near stall speed." He said the drop in payroll growth is being driven by both weaker demand for workers and weaker supply of workers due to lower immigration, but weaker demand is the greater force. Waller noted that he's not seeing or hearing evidence of an acceleration in wage growth, an increase in job openings, or a rise in the quits rate that would lead him to believe weaker payroll growth is a result of fewer workers in the job market. Waller pointed to data from the Labor Department from May through August that showed job creation in the US stalled. He believes that with revisions, it's likely employment actually fell over that period. "The current policy stance is still somewhat restrictive, but we have moved it closer to its neutral level that neither restricts nor stimulates the economy," Jefferson said in a speech in Kansas City. "The evolving balance of risks underscores the need to proceed slowly as we approach the neutral rate." Jefferson stressed that heading into the Fed's next policy meeting on Dec. 9-10, it remains unclear how much government data the officials will get, and while he always takes a "meeting-by-meeting approach," this is "an especially prudent approach" now.

Fed's Logan calls for holding rates steady 'for a time' (Reuters) - Dallas Federal Reserve President Lorie Logan on Friday called for leaving the policy rate on hold "for a time" while the central bank assesses how much of a brake the current level of borrowing costs is putting on the economy, with soaring stock prices one reason to think it may not be much. In remarks in Zurich, she repeated her view that the October interest-rate cut from the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee was not warranted, given too-high inflation and a "roughly balanced" labor market. She said wasn't even sure in September that the Fed ought to have reduced rates then. Sign up here. "With two rate cuts now in place, I’d find it difficult to cut rates again in December unless there is clear evidence that inflation will fall faster than expected or that the labor market will cool more rapidly," Logan said on Friday. "In the absence of clear evidence that justifies further easing, holding rates steady for a time would allow the FOMC to better assess the degree of restriction from current policy." Elevated asset valuations and historically compressed credit spreads, she said, are not just indications "that policy most likely isn’t very restrictive. They’re also indications that the fed funds rate needs to offset tailwinds from financial conditions," Logan said. The Fed's next meeting is December 9-10, and central bankers have expressed strongly differing views about what best to do. Some Fed policymakers are calling for a third-straight interest-rate cut to head off weakness in the labor market and others, like Logan, prefer to be more cautious. Interest-rate futures contracts on Friday reflected expectations for a December rate cut, reversing bets against a December rate cut in place for most of this week. Logan said Friday she remains concerned that inflation is not headed back toward the Fed's 2% target but is instead forecast to be about 2.7% over the coming year. Meanwhile, she said, though some workers are having difficulty finding work, and risks to the labor market are mainly to the downside, slow job gains do not necessarily mean there is more slack in the labor market, and the recent resolution of the government shutdown takes some near-term risks off the table.

Fed's Collins leans against December rate cut in CNBC interview (Reuters) - Federal Reserve Bank of Boston President Susan Collins said on Friday that monetary policy is in the right place amid a resilient economy, in comments that suggest she remains skeptical of the need to cut interest rates again at next month’s monetary policy meeting. Given where inflation currently stands, "restrictive policy is very appropriate right now," and the current state of the economy "makes me hesitant as I look forward to think about what the next policy move should be," Collins said in an interview on CNBC. She noted that maintaining something close to the current level of monetary policy will help ensure that as tariff pressures pass through the economy, still-high inflation will eventually moderate. Collins, who currently holds a vote on the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee, is one of a number of skeptics on the Fed when it comes to the prospect of lowering the cost of short-term borrowing at the central bank's December 9-10 meeting. The Fed cut rates at both its mid-September and late October meetings, with the federal funds rate target range now at between 3.75% and 4%. Rate cuts were aimed at providing insurance for a softening job market, while at the same time putting continued downward pressure on inflation levels which continue to breach the Fed's 2% target. As the December meeting looms into view, a wide range of policymakers have expressed skepticism over a December rate cut, as they have been deprived of data due to the government shutdown. That said, hopes for an interest rate cut got a shot in the arm from New York Fed leader John Williams, who spoke on Friday and nodded toward an easing. In her interview, Collins said the September hiring data released this week was mixed and comes in a broader environment where the economy appears to be resilient. Collins said she would be watching the job market for signs of slowing and if it did, it would affect her monetary policy outlook.

Williams' comments boost odds of a Fed cut, though policy hawks remain adamant (Reuters) - Comments from a top U.S. Federal Reserve official on Friday that interest rates can fall "in the near term" boosted the likelihood of a rate cut at the Fed's December 9-10 meeting, even as other policymakers insisted borrowing costs should remain steady for now to ensure inflation declines in coming months. New York Fed President John Williams, a permanent voter on rate policy and vice chair of the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee, said at a conference at the Central Bank of Chile that U.S. interest rates could fall without putting the Fed's inflation goal at risk, while helping guard against a slide in the job market.. "I view monetary policy as being modestly restrictive...Therefore, I still see room for a further adjustment in the near term to the target range for the federal funds rate to move the stance of policy closer to the range of neutral," Williams said in new remarks that led investors to put a nearly 60% chance of a quarter-point cut at the U.S. central bank's December meeting, reversing what had been strong conviction that the Fed would pause due to concerns about inflation. U.S. Treasury yields dropped on the prospect of a lower Fed benchmark rate, helped by Williams' comments and data on Thursday showing a rise in the unemployment rate to 4.4% in September from 4.3% the prior month. Williams said the job market appears to be softening, and compared the September jobless rate to the pre-pandemic years "when the labor market was not overheated." Though progress on inflation has "temporarily stalled" with prices rising at a rate well above the Fed's 2% target, he said he expected price pressures to ease as the impact of tariffs passes through the economy. The Fed needs to reach its inflation target "without creating undue risks to our maximum employment goal," Williams said. His comments come amid debate about whether the Fed should cut rates in December, with some other regional bank presidents drawing a hard line against further reductions until it is clear that inflation will drop to the Fed's 2% target from its current, still-elevated level. Federal Reserve Bank of Boston President Susan Collins said in a CNBC interview on Friday that she thinks monetary policy is in the right place given the economy's resilience, reaffirming a view that had helped push market sentiment away from bets on a Fed cut. Collins, a voter on Fed policy this year and therefore able to dissent against FOMC decisions, said she was "hesitant" about further rate cuts, with the central bank's benchmark policy rate currently set in a 3.75% to 4% range that she feels is only "mildly restrictive" and "very appropriate right now" to keep some downward pressure on inflation. Dallas Federal Reserve President Lorie Logan, meanwhile, on Friday called for leaving the policy rate on hold "for a time" while the central bank assesses the impact of monetary policy on the economy. Logan does not currently hold one of the four voting seats that rotate annually among the 11 reserve bank presidents other than Williams, but will have a voting role next year. In remarks prepared for delivery in Zurich, she repeated her view that the Fed's October interest-rate cut was not warranted with inflation too high and the labor market roughly balanced. "In the absence of clear evidence that justifies further easing, holding rates steady for a time would allow the FOMC to better assess the degree of restriction from current policy," she said. The debate over a December rate cut is being carried out in the absence still of the core economic data the Fed typically relies on, with delays in the release of jobs and inflation data due to the recently ended government shutdown. Several members of the Washington-based Board of Governors, all appointees of President Donald Trump, have been the most vocal in advocating that rates should move lower, with inflation due to fall in their view and risks mounting to the job market. The current "hawks" by contrast are centered among presidents of the 12 regional reserve banks, quasi-private institutions overseen by local boards and created under the Federal Reserve Act to decentralize power as a further check on the influence of elected officials, and particularly the president, over monetary policy. That has raised the prospect of divided votes over coming rate moves. A quarter point cut at the Fed's October meeting, to the 3.75% to 4% range, prompted dissents in favor of both tighter and looser monetary policy, and the opinions since then among some officials have grown even firmer. Fed Governor Stephen Miran, who has dissented twice in favor of larger half-point cuts and is expected to continue doing so, said that if the divisions grew sharp enough that his vote would make the difference he would change tactics. "I would absolutely vote for a 25-basis-point cut if my vote were the marginal vote, there's no question about that," Miran, currently on leave as a top economic advisor to Trump, said on Bloomberg Television. "To do otherwise would be to cause real harm to the economy for purposes of vanity and that's not who I am."

FOMC Minutes: "Likely be appropriate to keep the target range unchanged for the rest of the year." -From the Fed: Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, October 28-29, 2025. Excerpt: In their consideration of monetary policy at this meeting, participants noted that inflation had moved up since earlier in the year and remained somewhat elevated. Participants further noted that available indicators suggested that economic activity had been expanding at a moderate pace. They observed that job gains had slowed this year and that the unemployment rate had edged up but remained low through August. Participants assessed that more recent indicators were consistent with these developments. In addition, they judged that downside risks to employment had risen in recent months. Against this backdrop, many participants were in favor of lowering the target range for the federal funds rate at this meeting, some supported such a decision but could have also supported maintaining the level of the target range, and several were against lowering the target range. Those who favored or could have supported a lowering of the target range for the federal funds rate toward a more neutral setting generally observed that such a decision was appropriate because downside risks to employment had increased in recent months and upside risks to inflation had diminished since earlier this year or were little changed. Those who preferred to keep the target range for the federal funds rate unchanged at this meeting expressed concern that progress toward the Committee's inflation objective had stalled this year, as inflation readings increased, or that more confidence was needed that inflation was on a course toward the Committee's 2 percent objective, while also noting that longer-term inflation expectations could rise should inflation not return to 2 percent in a timely manner. One participant agreed with the need to move toward a more neutral monetary policy stance but preferred a 1/2 percentage point reduction at this meeting. In light of their assessment that reserve balances had reached or were approaching ample levels, almost all participants noted that it was appropriate to conclude the reduction in the Committee's aggregate securities holdings on December 1 or that they could support such a decision.In considering the outlook for monetary policy, participants expressed a range of views about the degree to which the current stance of monetary policy was restrictive. Some participants assessed that the Committee's policy stance would be restrictive even after a potential 1/4 percentage point reduction in the policy rate at this meeting. By contrast, some participants pointed to the resilience of economic activity, supportive financial conditions, or estimates of short-term real interest rates as indicating that the stance of monetary policy was not clearly restrictive. In discussing the near-term course of monetary policy, participants expressed strongly differing views about what policy decision would most likely be appropriate at the Committee's December meeting. Most participants judged that further downward adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate would likely be appropriate as the Committee moved to a more neutral policy stance over time, although several of these participants indicated that they did not necessarily view another 25 basis point reduction as likely to be appropriate at the December meeting. Several participants assessed that a further lowering of the target range for the federal funds rate could well be appropriate in December if the economy evolved about as they expected over the coming intermeeting period. Many participants suggested that, under their economic outlooks, it would likely be appropriate to keep the target range unchanged for the rest of the year. All participants agreed that monetary policy was not on a preset course and would be informed by a wide range of incoming data, the evolving economic outlook, and the balance of risks.In discussing risk-management considerations that could bear on the outlook for monetary policy, participants generally judged that upside risks to inflation remained elevated and that downside risks to employment were elevated and had increased since the first half of the year. Many participants agreed that the Committee should be deliberate in its policy decisions against the backdrop of these two-sided risks and reduced availability of key economic data.

Fed's Miran: 'No point in getting to neutral slowly' — Federal Reserve Gov. Stephen Miran Thursday evening reiterated his view that monetary policy is too restrictive, emphasizing that the central bank should cut rates quickly to bring it down to a more neutral stance.

• Key insight: Federal Reserve Gov. Stephen Miran says monetary policy is "too restrictive" and that the central bank should cut rates quickly.
• Supporting data: Miran cited slower population growth due to deportations and "declining deficits" as forces pulling the neutral rate lower than has been widely appreciated by policymakers.
• Forward look: Miran warned that continuing on the current trajectory of slow, deliberate cuts raises the risk that the labor market will continue to deteriorate, triggering a recession.

Miran reiterated his view that monetary policy has become more restrictive than economists think, but expressed increased urgency that the central bank take strong corrective action.

Rearranging The Chairs | ZeroHedge - Treasury Secretary Bessent just said he doesn’t want to be Fed Chair but that person will hopefully be named by Xmas – Trump thinks he already knows who he wants . Does anybody think it’s going to be a strong, independent, gnostic, hawk deliberately ignorant of geopolitics, who will focus on 2% CPI and clash with the White House and Treasury? I thought not.Politico reports Spain and Germany are gunning to head the ECB in 2027, with former Bank of Spain governor de Cos, now running the BIS, in a strong position - though moving him could cost Europe its BIS leadership if Trump wants an American to run the central bankers’ central bank. Bundesbank president Nagel is mentioned, as is him recently annoying Chancellor Merz in expressing support for Eurobonds for defence purposes. Germany has more hawkish candidates – or it could support one from elsewhere, such as former president of the Dutch central bank Knot.Markets will soon focus on this rearranging of Chairs… and that it’s on the Titanic(?) As noted yesterday, the White House sees the neoliberal, central-bank centric, inflation-targeting world no longer exists: so, logically, it won’t exist under the next Fed Chair. Monetary policy and fiscal policy will (further) conjoin, as will FX, trade, defence, industrial, and energy policy – and others to boot. Covering any of those areas will require a real understanding of that connection and the nested hierarchy of national (or bloc) Grand Macro Strategy driving them. Is that just a US issue? No. The PBOC operates in a similar fashion, so the world’s two largest economies would be outside the neoliberal norm. The Bank of England could follow under Reform. Even Europe will be forced to grapple with serious structural issues, which the Draghi Report argue require bold, original, joined-up thinking - and it’s not as if the ECB hasn’t changed hugely since its inception.

Stocks, Rate-Cut Odds Plunge After BLS Confirms Jobs Data Will Come After FOMC -As we detailed earlier, stocks had already started to slide but then shortly after lunch, the BLS confirmed it won't publish the Oct jobs report at all (widely viewed as likely being weak), and the Nov jobs report will be published on Dec 16th - that's after the final FOMC meeting of the year. The market saw this as hawkish (with The Fed flying blind for its Dec decision), sending rate-cut odds tumbling...

The next recession is coming — and this time, you’re the collateral - It’s not a matter of if the next recession comes, but when. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent recently warned that “sections of the economy” are already showing signs of strain — and that if the Federal Reserve doesn’t cut rates soon, the pain could spread fast. His warning landed like an echo of what many already feel: Something in the system is starting to buckle. The numbers may still look fine, the talking heads may still smile, but the tremors have begun. And this time, it will be a recession unlike any before it, because the U.S. is uniquely unprepared to endure it. In previous downturns, the country has had cushions. Families had savings, unions had leverage, and the government had credibility. Not anymore. Most Americans today have little to no savings, a mountain of debt, and a growing suspicion that the system only works for someone else. Credit cards have become lifelines. “Buy now, pay later” schemes are treated like budgeting tools. An unexpected bill — a car repair, a medical emergency, a layoff — can set off a chain reaction that ends in eviction. The margin between comfort and crisis has all but disappeared. Bessent’s concern centers on the Federal Reserve’s refusal to lower interest rates. The Fed keeps rates high to fight inflation, but that very cure could soon kill the patient. High borrowing costs are suffocating small businesses and freezing homebuyers out of the market. Even modest families who once dreamed of owning a home are locked out by mortgage rates that feel like bad punchlines. Housing is stuck in limbo: sellers can’t sell, buyers can’t buy, and renters can’t catch a break. For millions, the American Dream now looks like an overdraft notice. This recession, when it lands, will not be a repeat of 2008. The dangers are different — and in some ways, more permanent. In past crises, job losses came from factories shutting down or banks imploding. This time, layoffs are happening in sleek glass towers and corporate boardrooms. Artificial intelligence has given companies a new way to cut costs. No need for pink slips or awkward meetings — just one software update and an entire department disappears. The human cost is invisible but immense. People aren’t just losing their jobs; they’re losing their purpose. And this time, there’s little guarantee those jobs will return. For decades, Americans were told that education was the insurance policy against economic despair. Get a degree, specialize, stay adaptable. But AI is rewriting that promise. Algorithms are encroaching on white-collar work — writing reports, analyzing data, even producing art and code. The recession ahead won’t just shrink paychecks; it will shrink relevance. The political consequences will be explosive. Economic pain has always bred anger, but this time the anger is already here. It’s been simmering for years — over lockdowns, over borders, over identity and ideology. Add a recession to that volatile mix, and something breaks. When people lose jobs and hope, they stop trusting everything else — governments, banks, media, even neighbors. The next financial crash could trigger not just protests, but full-scale social unrest. America’s patience is stretched to breaking point. One more round of layoffs could tear it apart. Bessent’s comments about interest rates sound technical, but the stakes are enormous. Keep them high and you crush the middle class; cut them too fast and inflation comes roaring back. The Fed is trapped in a paradox of its own making, trying to control a storm with a thermostat. Meanwhile, Washington is more focused on election cycles than economic cycles. The political class is too divided to plan, too addicted to denial to act. When the downturn comes, they’ll blame one another while ordinary people bear the cost. Bessent may prove to be the reluctant prophet of a downturn already underway. The cracks are already visible: shrinking factory output, rising credit defaults, retail sales that look eerily calm before the storm. Economists call this a “soft landing.” But when a plane runs out of fuel mid-flight, there’s no soft landing — only impact. The next recession will be remembered not for its depth but for its disillusionment. It won’t just drain savings; it will drain faith — in markets, in technology, in leaders, in society itself. It will show us, once again, that the line between growth and greed is perilously thin.

House returns to vote on flurry of energy bills, resolutions - The House’s long-awaited return to regular session this week will come a flurry of votes on energy and environment legislation. The chamber is set for a rare five-day workweek as GOP leaders try to plow through a backlog of energy priorities after a record-breaking government shutdown. They have queued up votes on measures to lift restrictions on liquefied natural gas exports and expand domestic refining capacity amid rising energy costs. Lawmakers will also take up several Congressional Review Act resolutions targeting Biden-era environmental initiatives, including protections for certain drilling areas in Alaska.

Permitting, spending, reconciliation: What to expect in Congress this fall - The House and Senate will both return to regular session this week for the first time since mid-September, kicking off a legislative sprint to catch up on delayed work and prevent another costly shutdown. The first order of business for congressional leaders will be to maintain momentum on fiscal 2026 spending. Congress has 11 weeks to pass the remaining nine funding bills, and appropriators remain far apart on top lines and policy riders. At the same time, lawmakers will rev up committee work — including on energy and environment priorities — following the House’s extended recess. Republican and Democratic leaders are particularly hoping to make up ground on permitting reform legislation. There could be a markup vote in the coming days. The shutdown and Johnson’s decision to keep House members in their districts for most of the past two months have created a pileup of pending legislation. Rep. Joe Neguse (D-Colo.) said last week that of all the bills that have advanced out of committee this year, 150 are awaiting potential floor votes. “These people have been missing in action, absent without official leave, running scared. But they can no longer hide,” said House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.). The House is poised to vote on a resolution to compel the release of documents associated with the late convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein. There could also be votes on legislation focused on lawmaker stock trading, cryptocurrency and other issues. In December, the Senate will vote on a Democratic-backed bill to extend soon-to-expire premium tax credits under the Affordable Care Act. Some Republican leaders have floated the potential for a second reconciliation bill, which would allow the majority to pass certain health care policies without Democratic buy-in. Meanwhile, Armed Services Committee leaders are negotiating the annual defense policy bill with the goal of voting on a compromise version in December. The House and Senate versions of the National Defense Authorization Act lean heavily into advanced nuclear energy and environmental cleanups. Congress will look to make headway on various bipartisan packages that the shutdown stalled, including a bill to reform the Federal Emergency Management Agency and legislation to reauthorize pipeline safety programs. A bipartisan highway bill is also in the works. It took the House and Senate more than three months to negotiate the package of three fiscal 2026 spending bills that Congress passed last week as part of the deal to reopen the government. Now, Congress will race to pass nine more spending bills before government funding runs out Jan. 31. Senate leaders have already lined up a package of at least three more bills for bipartisan, bicameral negotiations: Defense, Labor-HHS-Education and Transportation-HUD. Two more spending bills — Interior-Environment and Commerce-Justice-Science — are also in the mix, but those have been mired by appropriators’ disagreements about policy riders and funding levels. Sen. John Kennedy (R-La.) has objections about top lines in the bill that funds the Department of the Interior and EPA. Lawmakers are eager to avoid another shutdown, but Democrats have not telegraphed how they might respond if appropriations bills don’t pass on time, if the Trump administration continues its unilateral funding cuts or if the health care issue is not resolved. “We’re going to try to take that weapon out of their hand,” Johnson said Friday on Fox Business, referring to Democrats’ recent attempt to use a shutdown for leverage. Lawmakers have their work cut out for them. The House has not passed most of its fiscal 2026 bills on the floor. The Senate is even further behind; the chamber has yet to release and mark up four of its spending bills. Rep. Mike Simpson (R-Idaho), chair of the Interior-Environment Appropriations Subcommittee, said he expects his bill to hit the House floor for a vote as soon as this week. From there, it would enter informal negotiations with Senate appropriators. “We need to move on ours so we can go to conference,” Simpson said. “There’s always differences, and that’s OK. That’s what conferences are all about.” The Energy-Water bill remains stuck. It passed the House by one vote earlier this year, but the Senate has not yet finalized its own version. Senate Appropriations Chair Susan Collins (R-Maine) and Kennedy, the chair of the Energy-Water Appropriations Subcommittee, are at an impasse over funding levels in the bill. Kennedy wants his bill to reduce spending on renewable energy and other programs while maintaining funding for the Army Corps of Engineers and the nuclear stockpile. Kennedy has said his version of the bill has a discretionary top line 1 percent below the currently enacted level and is ready for a markup. However, committee leaders have not released it. Sen. Patty Murray (D-Wash.), ranking member on the Energy-Water Subcommittee, indicated that the dispute over the bill’s top line had been elevated to Collins. Murray said she is “waiting for Sen. Collins to do something” about it. A spokesperson for Collins said they did not have an update on the bill’s status. “I’m going with my bill, and if the Appropriations Committee or the chairwoman or the vice chairwoman don’t like it, I respect their opinion, but they got one vote and I got one vote, and mine is the only bill that reduces spending,” Kennedy said.

UN Security Council Adopts Resolution Placing Gaza Under Control of US-Led Board - The UN Security Council on Monday adopted a US-proposed resolution that places Gaza under the control of a US-led body, dubbed the “Board of Peace,” for at least two years and authorizes the deployment of an international force to the Palestinian territory that will operate under the watch of the US military.The 15-member Security Council passed the resolution with 13 voting in favor and none voting against. Russia and China abstained from voting, choosing not to use their veto power to stop the resolution. Ahead of the vote, US Ambassador to the UN Mike Waltz warned that a vote against the resolution was a “vote to return to war.”The resolution endorses the 20-point US-Israeli Gaza plan released by the White House on September 29, which it refers to as the “Comprehensive Plan.”The resolution states that the Security Council welcomes the establishment of the Board of Peace, or BoP, which will be headed by President Trump. It describes the BoP as “a transitional administration with international legal personality that will set the framework, and coordinate funding for, the redevelopment of Gaza pursuant to the Comprehensive Plan.”The UN resolution says that the BoP will remain the authority in Gaza until the Palestinian Authority (PA) “has satisfactorily completed its reform program,” though Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has repeatedly rejected the idea of the PA having a role in Gaza, and whether the PA has “reformed” enough to take over in Gaza would likely be up to the US and Israel.

Trump Says He Will Sell F-35 Fighter Jets to Saudi Arabia - President Trump said on Monday that he plans to sell F-35 fighter jets to Saudi Arabia, comments that came a day before Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman will meet with him at the White House.“I am planning on doing that,” Trump told reporters when asked if he would allow Riyadh to purchase the US jets. “They want to buy them. They’ve been a great ally.”Currently, Israel is the only Middle Eastern country that’s armed with F-35s, and US officials have been hesitant to sell the jets to Arab countries to uphold Israel’s so-called “qualitative military edge” in the region. Israel has previously agreed that the US could sell F-35s to the UAE as part of its 2020 normalization deal, but the sale has been put on hold, and it’s unclear if it will ever go through.Israeli officials have told Axios that they want the US to condition the F-35 sale to Saudi Arabia on Riyadh agreeing to normalize with Israel, but that’s unlikely to happen, as Saudi officials have maintained they won’t establish diplomatic relations with Israel until there’s a guaranteed path toward a Palestinian state.

Trump greenlights sale of F-35 fighter jets to Saudi Arabia - President Trump said Monday he will greenlight the sale of F-35 advanced fighter jets to Saudi Arabia, ahead of a high-profile visit by Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman this week to Washington, D.C. U.S. law requires that any weapons sale package to countries in the Middle East does not risk Israel’s security, it’s so-called Qualitative Military Edge, and it’s not yet clear if Trump has cleared that hurdle in permitting the sale of fighter jets to Saudi Arabia. And the New York Times reported last week that a Pentagon intelligence report raised concerns China could acquire the warplanes’ technology if the sales go through. “We will be doing that, we will be selling F-35s,” Trump told reporters in the Oval Office. Earlier, Trump called Riyadh a “great ally” and suggested that Saudi Arabia was helpful in the U.S. strikes against Iran’s nuclear facilities that took place in June. “They want to buy, they’ve been a great ally … look at the Iran situation in terms of obliterating their — we obliterated their nuclear capability. We will be doing that, we will be selling F-35s,” Trump said. Israel is reportedly lobbying the Trump administration to push Saudi Arabia to normalize ties with Jerusalem as a condition for the sale of the F-35s.Trump told reporters aboard Air Force One on Friday that he was going to speak with the Crown Prince, the de facto leader of Saudi Arabia, about normalizing ties with Israel.

‘Risks to Israeli Security' - Zionist Group Slams US Sale of F-35 Jets to Saudi Arabia - --The Zionist Organization of America (ZOA) on Monday said it “strongly opposes” the US administration’s intention to approve the sale of advanced US F-35 fighter jets to Saudi Arabia, citing “risks to US and Israeli security” and a violation of US law. “ZOA strongly opposes selling powerful F-35 fighter jets to Saudi Arabia. The sale would substantially impair Israel’s qualitative military edge (QME), and involve severe additional risks to U.S. and Israeli security,” ZOA National President Morton A. Klein said in a statement. US President Donald Trump confirmed to reporters in the Oval Office earlier on Monday that “We’ll be selling the F-35s,” according to Reuters news agency. His statement comes ahead of Saudi Crown Prince Muhammad bin Salman’s official visit to the US for talks. Klein stated that an F-35 fighter jet “can reach Israel in mere minutes,” adding that Saudi Arabia is reportedly seeking forty-eight F-35s, “a larger number than Israel currently has.” “This massive, dangerous sale is likely to violate the U.S. legal obligation under 22 U.S. Code § 2776(h) to assure Israel’s QME – Israel’s ability to counter and defeat any credible conventional military threat from any individual state or possible coalition of states, or from non-state actors, while sustaining minimal damages and casualties,” he stressed. Criticizing Saudi Arabia as “an Islamic dictatorship”, Klein stated that the country has no formal relations with Israel, continues to boycott Israeli products, and prohibits Israelis from visiting Saudi Arabia. He also slammed Riyadh for making “hostile demands on Israel, including conditioning relations on establishing a terrorist Palestinian Arab State on Israel’s lawful land – which would be an existential threat to Israel.” He claimed that even if Saudi Arabia joins the Abraham Accords, “this would not overcome the impairment to Israel’s QME.”

Trump Designates Saudi Arabia as 'Major Non-NATO Ally' During MbS Visit - President Trump announced on Tuesday night that he was designating Saudi Arabia as a “major non-NATO ally” of the US after he and Saudi Crown Prince Mohhamed bin Salman signed a new security pact, dubbed the US-Saudi Strategic Defense Agreement (SDA).“I’m pleased to announce that we are taking our military cooperation to even greater heights by formally designating Saudi Arabia as a major non-NATO ally, which is something that is very important to them, and I’m just telling you know for the first time because I wanted to keep a little secret for tonight,” the president said at a dinner he hosted for MbS after the two leaders met in the Oval Office earlier in the day.The MNNA designation gives countries priority access to US military equipment. Under the SDA, Saudi Arabia will purchase F-35 fighter jets and 300 US-made tanks, according to a statement from the White House.The White House said that the security pact will make it easier for “US defense firms to operate in Saudi Arabia” and affirms that Riyadh “views the United States as its primary strategic partner.” It’s unclear at this point if the SDA includes any sort of mutual defense guarantee for Saudi Arabia, something Riyadh was seeking.Saudi Arabia has also been seeking US help in establishing a civilian nuclear program, which it appears to have secured. Trump and MbS signed a deal on the conclusion of nuclear negotiations that the White House said set the “legal foundation for a decades-long, multi-billion-dollar nuclear energy partnership with the Kingdom” and “confirms that the United States and American companies will be the Kingdom’s civil nuclear cooperation partners of choice.” MbS also pledged more Saudi investments in the US and said that he wants to join the “Abraham Accords,” referring to the Arab-Israeli normalization deal, but that it hinges on the creation of a Palestinian state, something the Israeli government has repeatedly rejected.

US, Saudi Tout New Business Deals at Investment Forum - (Reuters) – Saudi and U.S. officials on Wednesday touted billions in new investments and growing financial ties between the two countries coinciding with Saudi Arabian Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s visit to Washington. The CEOs from Chevron, Qualcomm, Cisco, General Dynamics and Pfizer are attending the U.S.-Saudi Investment Forum at the Kennedy Center in Washington, according to the event’s program, as well as senior executives from IBM, Alphabet’s Google, Salesforce, Andreessen Horowitz, Boeing, Halliburton, Adobe, Aramco, State Street and Parsons Corp. “The agreements finalized yesterday open the door for U.S. companies to lead globally (in) innovation, in safety and in deployment,” Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said. Bin Salman is set to rub shoulders with many of Corporate America’s most powerful executives later at the event on Wednesday, a day after President Donald Trump reintroduced him to official Washington with a glowing endorsement from the White House. Tesla CEO Elon Musk and Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang will take part in a discussion on advances in AI at the forum. It is the first trip by bin Salman to the U.S. since the 2018 killing of Saudi critic Jamal Khashoggi by Saudi agents in Istanbul, which caused a global uproar. U.S. intelligence concluded that bin Salman approved the capture or killing of Khashoggi, a prominent critic. The crown prince denied ordering the operation but acknowledged responsibility as the kingdom’s de facto ruler. Bin Salman arrived in Washington ready to talk about Trump’s favorite topic, investments in the U.S. Sitting next to Trump in the White House, bin Salman promised to increase his country’s U.S. investment to $1 trillion from a $600 billion pledge he made when Trump visited Saudi Arabia in May. But he offered no details or timetable. A $1 trillion investment in the U.S. would be difficult for Saudi Arabia to pull together given its heavy spending on an already-ambitious series of massive projects at home, including futuristic megacities that have gone over budget and faced delays and stadiums for the 2034 World Cup. Trump will attend the investment forum event that will include a wide range of companies, many of which are expected to announce investments in Saudi Arabia. The president himself could benefit from closer business ties with Saudi Arabia. He and several of his confidants have forged business deals with Saudi partners in real estate and other investments. But on Tuesday, Trump sought to distance himself from any suggestion of a conflict of interest. “I have nothing to do with the family business,” he told reporters, adding that “They’ve done very little with Saudi Arabia actually.” In May, during Trump’s four-day Middle East trip, the U.S. and Saudi Arabia announced billions of dollars in investments in both countries that included defense and AI deals.

Vindman demands release of Trump-Mohammed bin Salman call after Khashoggi murder: ‘You will be shocked’ - Rep. Eugene Vindman (D-Va.), who served on the National Security Council (NSC) in the first Trump administration, called on President Trump to release the transcript of a “shocking” phone call that took place with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman in the aftermath of Washington Post journalist Jamal Khashoggi’s assassination. Vindman — who played a key role in exposing details of Trump’s infamous call with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in 2019 — said a second phone call exists with the Saudi crown prince that rivals the first as “the most problematic.” In an interview on “CNN News Central” Wednesday, Vindman said Trump’s phone call with the de facto Saudi leader “was about the murder of an American resident — a Virginia resident — and a Washington Post reporter.” “During my tenure on Trump’s White House National Security Council staff, I reviewed many of Trump’s calls with foreign leaders. Of all the calls I reviewed, two stood out as the most problematic: The first, we all know, it was between President Trump and President Zelensky, which resulted in President Trump’s first impeachment,” Vindman said in a floor speech Tuesday. “The second was between President Trump and Mohammed bin Salman,” he continued. “After the murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi, I reviewed a call between the president and the Saudi crown prince.” Vindman, who did not provide any further details about the call, urged the president to release its transcript, saying in a subsequent post on social media, “You will be shocked by what you hear.” “The American people and the Khashoggi family deserve to know what was said on that call. If history is any guide, the receipts will be shocking,” Vindman said on the House floor.

As poll numbers drop, Trump vows to end war in Sudan at request of Mohammed bin Salman - If you look at the results from this month’s elections, one message rings louder than campaign ads:Americans are worried about the economy. So you’d think a moment like this would send President Trump straight to a manufacturing plant in the Midwest or a town-hall table in the heartland to talk about the cost of groceries. But instead, the “America First” president keeps stamping his passport. Just this week, he rolled out the red carpet for Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. At the same time, The New York Times reported earlier this week that Trump signed off on CIA covert action plans in Venezuela. Add that to his $20 billion bailout for Argentina and the summer bombing of Iran that even some of his isolationist supporters didn’t want, and you start to see the outline of a president who talks “America First” but keeps acting “America Abroad.” And that’s where the break in the MAGA dam begins. His base — folks who saw him as the antidote to foreign entanglements — are growing uneasy. Trump seems to know it, too. He admitted during a business forum: “My poll numbers just went down … but with smart people they’ve gone way up.” That line wasn’t exactly reassuring to a movement already angry over everything from affordability to his meandering response to the Epstein files being a “hoax.”The fury really lit up last week when Trump brushed off concerns that Chinese students were taking college spots from Americans. Then, in an interview with Laura Ingraham, he dropped this gem: “I know what MAGA wants better than anyone else.” That didn’t calm the waters. By the next morning, things boiled over when hesuggested there weren’t enough talented workers in the U.S., defending his push for more high-skilled foreign workers on H-B1 visas. And that’s when social media delivered a gut punch: #AmericaLast started trending, and some even declared: “MAGA is dead.”But Trump, standing before billionaires and executives at a U.S.-Saudi investment forum this week, doubled down — not on Middle America, but on the global stage. And then came the soundbite heard around the MAGA world: “You can’t come in, open a massive computer chip factory for billions and billions of dollars like is being done in Arizona, and think you’re gonna hire people off an unemployment line to run it. They’re gonna have to bring thousands of people with them — and I’m gonna welcome those people! I love my conservative friends, I love MAGA but this is MAGA.” That may have played well in a ballroom full of foreign investors, but it lands differently with voters who thought they were electing a champion of workers — American workers. Trump didn’t stop there. This week, he announced he’s preparing to jump into a new global conflict — Sudan — because, he says, his “friend,” the crown prince, asked him to intervene.“His majesty would like me to do something very powerful having to do with Sudan. It was not on my, uh, my charts to be involved in that. I thought it was just something that was crazy and out of control. But I just see how important that is to you and to a lot of your friends in the room. … We’re going to start working on Sudan.” Sudan has been crushed by civil war for more than two years, trapping tens of millions in humanitarian crisis. But as he leans into another international mission, a new Marist poll shows Trump’s approval at just 39 percent — his lowest since right after the January 6th attack on the U.S. Capitol in 2021. So here’s the question I keep coming back to: How long can you run on “America First” while spending so much time everywhere else?

Israel Receives 1,000th Aircraft Carrying US Military Supplies Since October 7, 2023 - The Israeli Ministry of Defense (IMOD) announced on Wednesday that it has received the 1,000th aircraft as part of an airlift operation delivering US military equipment to Israel that began following the October 7, 2023, attack on southern Israel and the start of Israel’s genocidal campaign in Gaza.“To date, over 120,000 tons of military equipment, munitions, weapons systems, and protective gear have been transferred to Israel via 1,000 aircraft and approximately 150 maritime vessels,” the IMOD said in a press release. The ministry said it and the IDF have been “conducting a cross-continental logistics airlift operation on a scale unprecedented since the establishment of the state.”The IDOF said that its missions in the US and Berlin have been involved in the operation, suggesting the flights could include German-supplied military equipment. Germany is the second-largest arms supplier to Israel after the US, and recently announced it was lifting a partial suspension of arms exports to Israel. Through the airlift operation, Israel has received “advanced munitions, weapons, armored vehicles, medical equipment, communications systems, and personal protective equipment.” The equipment has not only supported Israel’s destruction of Gaza but also its war in Lebanon, its invasion of southwestern Syria, its war with Iran, airstrikes on Yemen, and military operations in the Israeli-occupied West Bank.

Mike Huckabee Held Meeting With Jonathan Pollard, Who Spied on the US for Israel - US Ambassador to Israel Mike Huckabee held a meeting at the US Embassy in July with Jonathan Pollard, a former American intelligence analyst who was convicted of spying on the US on behalf of Israel, The New York Timesfirst reported on Thursday.The Times said it first learned of the meeting from three US officials and that when asked about it, Pollard confirmed that it took place. Pollard said it was the first time a US official hosted him at a US government office building since he was released from prison after serving 30 years for spying.n Pollard was initially given a life sentence for his espionage, but he was released on parole in 2015. In 2020, Pollard’s parole ended, and he was able to move to Israel, where Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu gave him a hero’s welcome on the tarmacThe Times report said that the CIA’s station chief in Israel and senior officials at the White House were “alarmed” when they heard that Huckabee hosted Pollard at the US Embassy. However, in public comments, the White House expressed support for Huckabee following the report.“The White House was not aware of that meeting,” White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt told RealClearPolitics. “The president stands by our ambassador, Mike Huckabee, and all that he’s doing for the United States and Israel.”

Iran says no prospect of talks as West builds pressure over nuclear issue - Aljazeera – Iranian authorities maintain that the United States and its allies are set on a forceful approach over the country’s nuclear programme, so negotiations appear far off. The administration of US President Donald Trump has left no room for talks by repeatedly presenting “maximalist demands”, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said on Sunday at a news conference in Tehran. “The current approach of the US government in no way shows readiness for an equal and fair negotiation to secure mutual interests,” he said on the sidelines of the state-organised Tehran Dialogue Forum, which diplomats and envoys from across the region attended.Iranian officials said they have been receiving messages from neighbouring countries that are trying to mediate and keep the peace. A letter from Araghchi was also delivered to Qatari Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman bin Jassim Al Thani on Sunday that deals with Iran, the ceasefire in Gaza and other issues, according to Iranian media.Araghchi said communication channels remain open with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) as well. Iran’s envoy to Vienna, where the nuclear watchdog is based, was joined on Friday by counterparts from China and Russia in a meeting with the representatives of the United Nations agency.“There’s no enrichment right now because our nuclear enrichment facilities have been attacked,” the foreign minister said at the news conference. “Our message is clear: Iran’s right for peaceful use of nuclear energy, including enrichment, is undeniable, and we will continue to exercise it.” Last week, the latest IAEA confidential report on Iran’s nuclear programme was leaked to Western media, which reported that the UN agency has not been able to verify Iran’s stockpile of 60 percent-enriched uranium since its facilities were bombed and severely damaged by the US and Israel in June.

US Bombs Somalia for 97th Time This Year - US Africa Command said on Wednesday that its forces launched an airstrike in northeastern Somalia’s Puntland region on November 18, as the Trump administration continues bombing the country at a record pace.AFRICOM told Antiwar.com on November 17 that it has launched 96 airstrikes in Somalia so far this year, making the November 18 attack the 97th US bombing in Somalia of 2025. The administration has shattered the previous record for total US airstrikes in Somalia in a single year, which President Trump set at 63 during his previous term in 2019.AFRICOM offered no details about the November 18 strike besides that it targeted the ISIS affiliate in Puntland and was launched about 40 miles to the southeast of the port city of Bosaso. “Specific details about units and assets will not be released to ensure continued operations security,” the command said.

US Africa Command Launches a 'Series' of Airstrikes in Somalia's Puntland Region - US Africa Command announced on Thursday that its forces launched a “series” of airstrikes in Somalia’s northeastern Puntland region on November 19 as the Trump administration continues to bomb the country at a record pace. The command offered no other details about the strikes other than saying they targeted the ISIS affiliate in Puntland and were launched about 37 miles southeast of the Gulf of Aden port city of Bosaso, where US-backed forces have been fighting ISIS members in the remote Caal-Miskaad mountain region. “Specific details about units and assets will not be released to ensure continued operations security,” AFRICOM said. The command stopped releasing casualty estimates or assessments on civilian harm earlier this year.AFRICOM told Antiwar.com on Friday that it launched a total of two airstrikes on November 19 and that it has launched 98 in Somalia so far this year, an unprecedented number. The administration has shattered the previous record for total US airstrikes in Somalia in a single year, which President Trump set at 63 during his previous term in 2019.The US supports local Puntland forces in the region because the US-backed Federal Government, based in Mogadishu, doesn’t control the region. The Puntland Counter-Terrorism Operations X account announced on Wednesday that the US had conducted an airstrike against “ISIS terrorists” in the Balade Valley, which is in the Caal-Miskaad mountains.

US Launches a Series of Airstrikes in Somalia, Civilians Reported Killed - The US has launched at least five more airstrikes in Somalia in recent days as the Trump administration continues to bomb the country at a record pace, a heavy US air war that receives virtually no American media coverage.According to press releases from US Africa Command, the US launched airstrikes targeting al-Shabaab in southern Somalia on November 11,November 13, November 14, and November 15. Unverified reports on social media suggest that another US airstrike was launched in the area on Sunday, November 16. The command also announced one strike onNovember 10 that targeted the ISIS affiliate in Somalia’s northeastern Puntland region.All of the strikes against al-Shabaab were launched to the northeast of the port city of Kismayo. According to al-Shabaab’s news agency, Shahada News Agency, a US and Somali government attack on the town of Jamame on Saturday killed 12 civilians, including eight children, three women, and an elderly man.The Shahada News Agency published photos of dead and wounded children that it claimed were killed in the attack, which it said involved airstrikes and artillery strikes on a civilian area. Baidoa Online, a Somali media outlet,also reported civilian casualties in a suspected US airstrike in Jamame, saying 10 were killed, including eight children.

Coast Guard spots Russian ship 15 miles off Hawaii- The U.S. Coast Guard spotted and monitored a Russian military vessel that operated about 15 nautical miles off the coast of Hawaii late last month, the service branch announced Thursday. The Kareliya, a Russian Vishnya-class intelligence ship, was detected and tracked Oct. 29 approximately 15 nautical miles south of Hawaii’s island of Oahu. The Coast Guard responded by dispatching an HC-130 Hercules aircraft and Coast Guard cutter William Hart to conduct a “safe and professional overflight and transiting near the vessel.” “The U.S. Coast Guard routinely monitors maritime activity around the Hawaiian Islands and throughout the Pacific to ensure the safety and security of U.S. waters,” Capt. Matthew Chong, the chief of response of the Coast Guard’s Oceania District, said in a statement. “Working in concert with partners and allies, our crews monitor and respond to foreign military vessel activity near our territorial waters to protect our maritime borders and defend our sovereign interests,” Chong said. Foreign military vessels are allowed to transit and operate outside of other countries’ territorial seas that can extend up to 12 nautical miles from the shore, according to international law. The Coast Guard said its personnel are “monitoring the Russian vessel’s activities near U.S. territorial waters to provide maritime security for U.S. vessels operating in the area and to support U.S. homeland defense efforts.”

The US is scaring Russia with junk aircraft – B-52H Nuclear bomber approaches Russian Arctic over Finland -- The U.S. Air Force has deployed a B-52H strategic bomber from Moron Air Base in Spain for operations near the Russian Arctic, with the aircraft receiving an escort from Finnish Air Force F-18 fighters and support from Finnish joint terminal attack controllers. The flight was part of Bomber Task Force Europe 26-1, and was highlighted by NATO, the U.S. Air Force and the Finnish Air Force as a deterrence signal and a reminder that Finland’s northern borders are now protected by NATO’s nuclear forces, ‘Military Watch Magazine’ reports.This follows Finland’s accession to NATO as the alliance’s 31st member on April 4, 2023. Finland’s integration into he alliance has been among the most significant developments for the balance of power in Europe since the end of the Cold War, due to its strategic location and 1,340 kilometre border with Russia, which has doubled the length of NATO’s border with the country. The U.S. Air Force currently deploys five squadrons of B-52H bombers, out of a total of 11 bomber squadrons. Despite its age, the aircraft is highly prized for both its relatively low maintenance requirements and its compatibility with a wide variety of advanced long range missile types. Delays to developing the B-21 next generation bomber, widespread issues with the small B-2 stealth bomber fleet, and the contraction of the problematic B-1B bomber fleet, has left the B-52 with a particularly important role in the American bomber force. In the late 2010s the addition of external weapons pylons increased the B-52’s external payload to 18,000 kilograms from 4000 kilograms, allowing a single aircraft to carry up to 20 AGM-86 cruise missiles. The AGM-86 retains advanced radar evading capabilities, making them particularly difficult to intercept, and can be used to deliver conventional, penetrative and fragmentation warheads at ranges of over 2,500 kilograms. The B-52 fleet has suffered from considerable shortcomings, with the Audit of B-52 Diminishing Manufacturing Sources and Material Shortages in late 2023 finding that a primary issue industry’s inability to provide new parts in a timely manner, forcing the Air Force to rely very heavily on cannibalising the fleet for spare parts. This has had a serious adverse affect on availability rates. The audit highlighted that a number of firms were ending production of parts for the B-52, thus jeopardising the future of plans to keep the aircraft in service for 36 more years. With the aircraft’s capabilities considered increasingly out of date, plans for much needed upgrades to bring the bombers to the B-52J standard have suffered from multi-billion dollar cost overruns, and continue to face mounting delays, fuelling speculation that the Air Force will make deep cuts to the bomber program and potentially phase the aircraft out of service entirely.

Lawmakers plot path for Russia sanctions bill with Trump’s blessing -Lawmakers are quietly discussing how to quickly move new Russia sanctions legislation — this time with President Donald Trump’s blessing. “The president has now weighed in, in support of the Russia sanctions legislation,” Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) told reporters Wednesday, adding that he believed the House would need to make the first move in advancing the measure. However, House GOP leaders have long believed the Senate needs to act first. Members of the House and Senate are expected to talk Wednesday about advancing the long-stalled bill after Trump privately told top Republicans he supports it, according to Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.). Graham also told reporters Wednesday that the White House sent him a statement that very day about the bill, and that lawmakers involved in its drafting have signed off.

Graham: Senate to move on Trump-backed Russia sanctions - - The Senate will take up legislation that would sanction Russia’s trading partners, Sen. Lindsey Graham said Monday, pushing a bill placing added pressure on Russia to end its war with Ukraine. President Donald Trump told reporters Sunday night that the proposed Senate legislation would be “OK with me,” his strongest approval on the sanctions. In a post on the social media site X, Graham — a key supporter of the bill — said “with President Trump’s blessing,” the Senate would move on the sanctions to “continue the momentum to end this war honorably, justly and once and for all.” “This legislation is designed to give President Trump more flexibility and power to push Putin to the peace table by going after both Putin and countries like Iran that support him,” Graham wrote. “I appreciate the strong bipartisan support for this legislation in both the House of Representatives and the Senate.”

Ukrainian Military Says It Struck Targets Inside Russia Using US-Supplied ATACMS Missiles - The Ukrainian military said on Tuesday that its forces used US-provided ATACMS missiles in strikes on Russian territory, an attack that would require targeting data provided by the US.“The Armed Forces of Ukraine have successfully used ATACMS tactical missile systems to deliver a pinpoint strike on military facilities on Russian territory,” the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine wrote on Telegram. “This is a landmark event that underscores Ukraine’s unwavering commitment to its sovereignty.”The General Staff added that the “use of long-range strike capabilities, including systems such as ATACMS, will continue.” So far, the use of ATACMS on Russian territory hasn’t been confirmed by Moscow.ATACMS have a range of about 190 miles, and Ukraine was first given the green light to use the missiles in strikes on Russian territory by the Biden administration toward the end of 2024. While Russia reported Ukraine’s use of ATACMS in attacks on Russian territory at the time, the statement by the General Staff on Tuesday marks the first time the Ukrainian military acknowledged its use of the US-provided missile to strike inside Russia,according to The Kyiv Independent.According to media reports, the Trump administration had been blocking Ukraine’s use of ATACMS in strikes on Russian territory but recently reversed the policy. Last month, the Ukrainian military said it struck a chemical plant inside Russia using British-provided Storm Shadow missiles, which also require US targeting data.US-backed missile and drone attacks on Russian territory always risk a major escalation from Moscow. When President Biden first gave Ukraine the green light to fire ATACMS and Storm Shadows into Russia, Moscow responded by altering its nuclear doctrine to lower the threshold for the use of nuclear weapons.

Russia Confirms Ukraine Fired US-Provided ATACMS Missiles Into Russian Territory - The Russian Defense Ministry on Wednesday confirmed that Ukrainian forces fired US-provided ATACMS missiles into Russian territory a day earlier.The Russian Defense Ministry said that Ukraine fired the ATACMS at the southern Russian city of Voronezh, while the Ukrainian military said that it struck a military target. “Russian S-400 air defence crews and Pantsir missile and gun systems shot down all ATACMS missiles,” the Russian Defense Ministry wrote on Telegram.According to Reuters, the ministry said the debris from the downed ATACMS damaged a retirement home, an orphanage, and a house in Voronezh, but there were no casualties. The ministry shared photos of the remnants of the downed US-made missiles.Fragment of a US-made ATACMS missile in Russia’s Voronezh region (photo released by Russia’s Defense Ministry)ATACMS have a range of about 190 miles, and the Ukrainian military requires US targeting data to fire them. Ukraine was first given the green light to use the missiles in strikes on Russian territory by the Biden administration toward the end of 2024.According to media reports, the Trump administration had been blocking Ukraine’s use of ATACMS in strikes on Russian territory but recently reversed the policy. Last month, the Ukrainian military said it struck a chemical plant inside Russia using British-provided Storm Shadow missiles, which also require US targeting data.

Report: US Pushing Peace Plan for Ukraine To Cede Territory, Limit Its Military - The US has signaled to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky that Ukraine must accept a US-drafted proposal to end the war with Russia that would involve Ukraine ceding territory and accepting limits on its military,Reuters reported on Wednesday.Axios also reported that the US has drafted the proposal with Russian input and is asking for Ukraine to cede the territory it still controls in the eastern Donbas region, where Russian forces continue to make gains. In the southern Kherson and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts, the battle lines would mostly be frozen in place, though Russia would return some land in certain areas.A US official told Axios that Ukraine is likely to eventually lose the territory it would cede under the peace deal, so “therefore, it is in Ukraine’s interest to reach a deal now.” The report said that under the proposal, the US and other countries would recognize Russian control over Crimea and the Donbas but wouldn’t ask Ukraine to do so.The US also includes some sort of US security guarantee for Ukraine, but it’s likely that any US pledge to defend Ukrainian territory wouldn’t be acceptable to Moscow. Russia has previously proposed the idea that a group of countries, including the permanent members of the UN Security Council, should be responsible for Ukraine’s security.According to Axios, US envoy Steve Witkoff drafted a 28-point peace plan with input from Russian envoy Kirill Dmitriev and Rustem Umerov, Zelensky’s national security adviser. However, a US official speaking toAxios said that Zelensky had walked back many of the understandings on the plan reached between Witkoff and Umerov.Witkoff was supposed to meet with Zelensky and Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan in Ankara on Wednesday, but the meeting was cancelled over the lack of Ukrainian support for the US plan. “We are now going to wait. The ball is in Zelensky’s court,” the US official speaking to Axios said.

Zelensky Says He's Willing To Negotiate on Trump's Peace Plan for Ukraine - Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky met with US Army Secretary Daniel Driscoll on Thursday and told him that he’s willing to work with the Trump administration on a new plan to end the war with Russia, Axiosreported, citing US and Ukrainian officials.The Trump administration has drafted a new 28-point peace plan with input from Russia that would require Ukraine to cede what territory it still controls in the Donbas and accept limits on its military.“Our teams – of Ukraine and the United States – will work on the provisions of the plan to end the war. We are ready for constructive, honest and swift work,” Zelensky wrote on X following his meeting with Driscoll.A US official told Axios that Zelensky and Driscoll “agreed on an aggressive timeline for signature,” signaling the Trump administration wants to get the deal done quickly. But the report also said that the US would take Ukrainian concerns into account and potentially alter the plan.Driscoll’s meeting with Zelensky followed Reuters reporting that Keith Kellogg, Trump’s special envoy to Ukraine, had told associates he plannedto leave the administration in January. Kellogg is known for his maximalist positions on the war, always insisting that Ukraine could win, and has reportedly clashed with Steve Witkoff, President Trump’s Middle East envoy, who has also been working on Ukraine and drafted the peace plan after holding talks with Russian envoy Kirill Dmitriev.

US Army chief ‘optimistic’ as Trump, Zelensky expected to discuss 28-point peace plan --The White House says Army Secretary Dan Driscoll felt optimistic following a meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, who is now planning to speak with President Trump about the 28-point peace plan reportedly hashed out mostly with Russia in recent weeks. “Sec. Driscoll did meet with President Zelensky today,” White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt told reporters Thursday. “We spoke with him. He was very optimistic following that meeting. And so again, we are having good conversations with both sides with respect to ending the war.” In a statement, Zelensky’s office said the American side believed the plan could accelerate diplomacy, while Ukraine had “agreed to work on the plan’s provisions in a way that would bring about a just end to the war.” “In the coming days, the President of Ukraine expects to discuss with President Trump the available diplomatic opportunities and the main points that are needed for peace,” it added. Driscoll and Army Chief of Staff Randy George were in Ukraine to help kick-start efforts to reach an agreement to end Russia’s war in the country, with the Trump administration earlier this week unveiling a 28-point plan that reportedly calls on Kyiv to make massive concessions, such as allowing the Kremlin to take Ukrainian territory. Zelensky, who until this point has rejected ceding any land to Russia, said in a post to social media platform X that he and Driscoll “discussed options for achieving real peace” and that the two countries’ teams are “ready for constructive, honest and swift work.” “Ukraine defends lives and independence thanks to the courage of our people, our unity within the state, and the assistance from our partners,” he wrote. “We are working to ensure that all three elements are strong enough.” Leavitt confirmed that special envoy Steve Witkoff and Secretary of State Marco Rubio “have been working on a plan quietly for about the last month,” adding “they have been engaged with both sides and these talks are continuing.” She declined to discuss details, which were laid out in reporting on Thursday from Axios, the Financial Times and Reuters. Driscoll’s trip to Ukraine coincided with the Trump administration announcing that its lead Ukraine envoy, retired Lt. Gen. Keith Kellogg, is stepping down in January. Driscoll was asked by Trump to travel to the war-torn country to help broker a peace deal, an official told NewsNation, the partner network of The Hill. During the visit, Driscoll in an hourlong presentation to Zelensky outlined the administration’s framework for a peace agreement, The Wall Street Journal reported. The peace plan, drafted by Witkoff and other U.S. officials in consultation with the Russians, caught lawmakers and European officials by surprise when Axios first reported on it Tuesday. The largely pro-Moscow proposal, which was reportedly discussed with only a few top senior Ukrainian officials, would have Kyiv give up full control of the eastern territory of the Donbas to Russia, even as Ukraine maintains control of about 12 percent of the territory. It also requires Kyiv to cut the size of its armed forces by half, limits its arsenal of weapons and U.S. military assistance, and bars foreign troops from Ukrainian soil — essentially vetoing ideas for a European or international peacekeeping force to monitor any ceasefire. Axios cited a U.S. official Thursday saying that Zelensky and Driscoll “agreed on an aggressive timeline for signature” on the plan, with Washington signaling that Kyiv must accept the U.S.-drafted proposal to end the war, which began in February 2022. European countries and Ukrainian figures have pushed back on the proposal. “There are currently no signs that the Kremlin is ready for serious negotiations. Putin is trying to stall for time and avoid US sanctions,” said Oleksandr Merezhko, chair of Ukraine’s foreign policy parliamentary committee, according to The Guardian. An Iraq war veteran and former adviser to Vice President Vance, Driscoll is the administration’s most senior Pentagon official known to have visited Ukraine since Trump began his second term. He is also expected to meet with Russian officials and, at a later date, possibly Russian President Vladimir Putin. Driscoll also reportedly was involved in a secretive meeting in Miami over the weekend, attended by Witkoff and top advisers to Zelensky.

Top US admiral says he’s watching China’s rapid naval buildup closely - (AP) — The top U.S. admiral on Monday called China ‘s shipbuilding capability “impressive” as Beijing moves ahead with a rapid buildup of the world’s largest navy, and said America’s cooperation with Asian allies South Korea and Japan is essential for its own shipbuilding capability. “How they utilize those aircraft carriers globally is, of course, a concern of mine,” Adm. Daryl Caudle said in Japan, part of his 10-day tour of the Asia-Pacific. China on Nov. 7 commissioned its latest aircraft carrier, Fujian, and began sea trials of its most advanced amphibious assault ship a week. China’s navy already has more ships than the U.S. Navy, but it has fewer aircraft carriers, amphibious assault ships and other key vessels. “We watch that very closely and see what they’re going to do there,” Caudle said of the amphibious assault ship. “That’s a large ship, very capable.” But he added: “When you’ve got a lot of friends and allies, we have a pretty large, combined force ourselves,” noting the capability of Japan, South Korea, Australia and other partners in the region. His visit to Tokyo comes as Japan’s conservative new prime minister has stirred tensions with China by suggesting a Chinese move against Taiwan could prompt a Japanese military response. Earlier Monday, Caudle visited the U.S. Navy base of Yokosuka and a local shipbuilding facility. “What we are willing to do with Japan and South Korea is to bolster U.S. shipbuilding,” he said. He also called a plan for South Korea under a recent agreement with the U.S. to have a nuclear-powered submarine “very nascent.”

Framed-up University of Michigan researcher Yunqing Jian sentenced and deported - On November 12, University of Michigan researcher Yunqing Jian was sentenced to “time served” and immediately deported back to China. Her sentencing and deportation were the result of a government-manufactured “agroterrorism” frame-up. After five months of incarceration, the 33-year-old Chinese scientist was brought into a Detroit federal courtroom in chains to finalize a plea deal that exposed the fraudulent character of the government’s entire case. Jian, until June a postdoctoral research fellow at a University of Michigan (U-M) lab, pleaded guilty to charges of smuggling and making false statements to investigators. In exchange, the government dropped its conspiracy charge. US District Judge Susan DeClercq, who called the case “very strange,” sentenced Jian to the five months she had already spent in jail and ordered her removal from the US to China. The government alleged that Jian conspired with her boyfriend, Zunyong Liu, to smuggle Fusarium graminearum, a common fungus that can cause wheat disease, and plasmid DNA materials into the country. While Liu was intercepted at the Detroit Metropolitan Airport in July 2024, Jian was not arrested until nearly a year later, following an investigation. Jian initially faced charges carrying a potential 25-year prison term. Since Jian’s initial incarceration, the government has escalated its crackdown against Chinese academics at the same U-M lab, resulting in charges against four other researchers for smuggling and making false statements to agents. This witch-hunt continued with the case of Chengxuan Han, who was sentenced to time served and deported last September. Following Han’s sentencing, three more Chinese researchers at U-M—Xu Bai, Fengfan Zhang, and Zhiyong Zhang—were arrested and jailed in November. In the course of Jian’s November 12 sentencing hearing, the prosecution made extraordinary admissions, abandoning its own hysterical narrative. This confirmed what we said from the beginning: the case against Jian, as well as the prosecution and jailing of the four other Chinese researchers at U-M, is a politically motivated witch-hunt, created to fuel the anti-China war drive and escalate the Trump administration’s fomenting of a climate of fear and repression on college campuses. At the hearing, Assistant US Attorney Michael Martin demanded a two-year prison sentence. This demand, however, contradicted Martin’s own stunning admission in open court, when he conceded, “I don’t have evidence that she had evil intent.” This statement shattered the entire premise of the government’s case. For five months, the Department of Justice (DOJ) and the FBI painted Jian as a sinister biosecurity threat who had smuggled an “agroterrorism” weapon into the heartland of America. The defense provided the simple and obvious motive for Jian’s circumventing of biological materials transport regulations, which was scientific, not criminal. An expert for the defense, Prof. Roger Innes of Indiana University, affirmed in a letter attached to the defense memorandum that the Fusarium graminearum strain was “ubiquitous in Michigan.” He concluded the genetic modifications would “not increase the virulence ... but could weaken it” and that the samples “did not present any appreciable danger of infestation or disease, let alone a ‘significant risk.’” Innes noted that the researchers likely wanted to use a specialized microscope available at the U-M lab. Jian expressed her motivation in a letter filed with the court. “I did not follow the rules because I was under pressure to proceed with research and produce results,” she wrote. “The research was not to harm anyone, but instead to find ways to protect crops from disease.”

US Bombs Another Boat in Latin America as It Continues Military Buildup - The US military has bombed another alleged drug boat in the waters of Latin America as it continues its military buildup in the region and pushes toward a potential war with Venezuela. According to US Southern Command, the strike targeted a vessel in the Eastern Pacific Ocean and killed three “narco-terrorists,” a term the Trump administration uses to justify extra-judicial executions at sea for an alleged crime that doesn’t receive the death penalty in the United States. SOUTHCOM offered no evidence to back up its claim that the boat was carrying drugs. Video of the strike released by SOUTHCOM.. Since early September, the US military has launched 21 such strikes, blowing up 22 boats, including 11 in the Caribbean and 11 in the Eastern Pacific. According to numbers released by the Trump administration, at least 82 people have been killed in the bombing campaign. The strikes areclearly illegal under US and international law, prompting close US allies to distance themselves from the campaign.The aircraft carrier USS Gerald Ford has recently arrived in the Caribbean amid reports that President Trump has been reviewing options to bomb Venezuela, though it remains unclear if he will start a war with the country. Much of the current US military buildup and leaks about potential US military action are part of a psychological campaign against Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, but the risk of war is still high as Secretary of State Marco Rubio and other US officials seek regime change.The latest strike came after US Secretary of War Pete Hegseth announced a new military campaign in the region, dubbed “Operation Southern Spear,” though it was unclear if the name just gives a label to the current bombing campaign or if it means there will be further US escalations.

US Marines Conducting Drills in Trinidad and Tobago, Just Miles From Venezuela's Coast - US Marines began drills on Sunday in Trinidad and Tobago, the Caribbean island nation that’s just miles off the coast of Venezuela, as the US military continues its activity in the region amid a push toward a potential US attack aimed at ousting Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro.The US Embassy in Trinidad and Tobago said the US Marine Corps 22nd Marine Expeditionary Unit (MEU) will be deployed to the Caribbean nation from November 16 to November 21 and will participate in exercises with the Trinidad and Tobago Defence Force (TTDF).According to Task & Purpose, the deployment came after the Trinidadian attorney general said the US military would “intensify” its exercises in the country. The 22nd MEU has been in the Caribbean since it was deployed to the region with the Iwo Jima Amphibious Ready Group in August. Maduro has criticized the increased US drills in Trinidad and Tobago,calling them “irresponsible” and warning against the US push toward war. “The people of Trinidad and Tobago will see if they continue allowing their waters and land to be used to gravely threaten the peace of the Caribbean,” he said over the weekend.A US aircraft carrier, the USS Gerald Ford, just arrived in the Caribbean, andaccording to The Washington Post, its fighter jet pilots have been studying Venezuela’s air defenses as the Trump administration is considering bombing the country. Trump suggested on Sunday that his administration was in talks with the Maduro government.The US has continued its bombing campaign against alleged drug-running boats in the region, which has received criticism from US allies over its clear illegality under both US and international law, but Trinidadian Prime Minister Kamla Persad-Bissessar has strongly supported the campaign despite fears among her country’s fishing community.Bodies of people believed to be killed in the US strikes have washed up in Trinidad and Tobago, and fishermen in the country have said the US bombing campaign has them fearing for their lives and jobs.

Trump Won't Rule Out Sending US Troops Into Venezuela - President Trump said on Monday that he wouldn’t rule out sending American troops into Venezuela amid the US military buildup in the Caribbean and push toward a potential war to oust Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro. “I don’t rule out that. I don’t rule out anything,” the president told reporters in the Oval Office when asked if he would rule out putting troops on the ground in Venezuela. The New York Times previously reported that Trump has been presented with options for attacking Venezuela, including two that involve sending troops: deploying a special operations team to kill or capture Maduro or sending a much larger force to seize strategic airfields and oil infrastructure inside the country. Amid US threats to attack Venezuela, US troops have been conducting drills in the region, including training in jungle warfare at a base in Panama.

Poll: Just 21% of Americans Support Using the Military To Oust Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro - A new Reuters/Ipsos poll has found just 21% of Americans support the idea of using the US military to oust Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, results that come amid a series of reports that the Trump administration is considering a regime change war in Venezuela.The results are similar to a YouGov poll conducted in September that found just 18% of Americans supported using the military to carry out regime change in Venezuela. The Reuters/Ipsos poll found that 31% of respondents would favor ousting Maduro through other means, but sanctions and US-backed coups in recent years have failed to remove the Venezuelan leader.The Reuters/Ipsos poll also found that the majority of Americans, 51%, oppose using the military to conduct executions of suspected drug traffickers without a judge or a court being involved, a rejection of the Trump administration’s bombing campaign against alleged drug boats in the Caribbean and the Eastern Pacific Ocean.

Venezuela's Maduro Says He's Ready To Hold 'Face-to-Face Talks' With US Officials - Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro made clear on Monday that he’d be willing to hold “face-to-face” talks with US officials and warned President Trump against starting a war with his country.“In the United States, whoever wants to talk with Venezuela will talk, face to face, without any problem,” Maduro said on his weekly TV program, comments that came after Trump suggested that his administration “may” be holding talks with the Venezuelan government.But Trump also told reporters on Monday that he wouldn’t rule out sending troops into Venezuela, and the major US military buildup in the Caribbean continues. Maduro said that if Trump ordered military strikes on Venezuela, it would be the “biggest mistake of his life.”Maduro suggested that political factions within the US are trying to hurt Trump before the 2026 congressional elections by pressuring him on the Jeffrey Epstein scandal and pushing him to go to war with Venezuela. “They want President Trump to attack Venezuela militarily, which would be the end of his political leadership and his name,” the Venezuelan leader said, according to the Miami Herald.Maduro has previously focused his criticism on Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who has been leading the push toward war with Venezuela. “Mr. President Donald Trump, you have to be careful because Marco Rubio wants your hands stained with blood, with South American blood, Caribbean blood, Venezuelan blood,” Maduro told reporters when the US began its bombing campaign against alleged drug boats in the region.

Trump Says US 'May Be Having Discussions' With Venezuela's Maduro - President Trump said on Sunday that the US “may be having discussions” with Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, suggesting his administration has not entirely cut off diplomacy with Caracas as previous reports have said.Trump made the comments when asked about Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s announcement that the State Department would be designating the so-called Cartel de los Soles, or Cartel of the Suns, as a “Foreign Terrorist Organization,” though the group doesn’t actually exist.The term “Cartel of the Suns” was first used in the 1990s, before Maduro’s predecessor, Hugo Chavez, came to power, to describe two Venezuelan military generals with sun insignias on their uniforms who were involved in the drug trade. One of the generals was working with the CIA at the time, according to a 1993 60 Minutes report.Today, the term is used to describe Venezuelan military and government officials who allegedly profit from drug trafficking, but the Cartel of the Suns doesn’t exist as a structured organization. Regardless of the reality, the US claims that Maduro is the leader of the Cartel of the Suns, signaling it will use the terror designation as a pretext to target him. Trump was asked if the designation could justify the US targeting Maduro’s assets or infrastructure inside Venezuela, and claimed that it “allows us to do that,” though any military action without congressional authorization would be illegal under the Constitution. Trump then suggested that the US and Venezuela are talking.

Trump open to conducting strikes in Mexico to thwart drug smuggling President Trump said on Monday that he is willing to launch strikes inside Mexico if it is necessary to thwart the smuggling of illegal narcotics into the U.S. “Would I launch strikes into Mexico to stop drugs? OK with me. Whatever we have to do to stop drugs,” the president said at the White House. “I looked at Mexico City over the weekend,” he told reporters. “There’s some big problems over there.” When asked by a reporter if he would ask for the Mexican government’s permission to launch strikes, Trump said he “wouldn’t answer that question” and added that he has been “speaking” with Mexico City. “They know how I stand,” Trump said. The Trump administration has been planning a mission to dispatch intelligence officers and U.S. troops to Mexico to go after drug cartels, although discussions on the scope of the mission are still underway, and a final decision has not been made, NBC News reported earlier this month. The U.S. Coast Guard announced on Nov. 6 that it seized close to 510,000 pounds of cocaine in the Caribbean and Eastern Pacific Ocean during fiscal 2025. Potential strikes inside Mexico would expand the president’s campaign to crush the trafficking of narcotics in Central and South America, as currentlythe U.S. military has been taking out alleged drug-trafficking boats in the Caribbean and Eastern Pacific. So far, the U.S. military has blown up 21 vessels, killing at least 83 people, whom the administration has called “narco-terrorists.” The State Department designated six Mexican drug cartels, along with Venezuelan gang Tren de Aragua and MS-13, as foreign terrorist organizations in February. The president indicated on Monday that he would go to Congress to ask for permission for the strikes and predicted the potential actions would be supported by lawmakers on both sides of the aisle. “So let me just put it this way,” he said. “I am not happy with Mexico.” Trump also signaled on Monday that he would be open to taking out cocaine factories in Colombia, claiming it would save millions of Americans. “Colombia has cocaine factories where they make cocaine. Would I knock out those factories? I would be proud to do it personally. I didn’t say I’m doing it, but I would be proud to do it because we’re going to save millions of lives by doing it.”

Mexico Again Rejects the Idea of US Military Intervention Against Cartels - Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum on Tuesday again rejected the idea of US military intervention against cartels in Mexico, comments that came a day after President Trump said he was willing to launch strikes on Mexican territory to stem the flow of drugs.“It’s not going to happen,” Sheinbaum said, according to The Associated Press. “He (Trump) has suggested it on various occasions, or he has said, ‘we offer you a United States military intervention in Mexico, whatever you need to fight the criminal groups.'”The Mexican leader added that she has told Trump “on every occasion that we can collaborate, that they can help us with information they have, but that we operate in our territory, that we do not accept any intervention by a foreign government.”Earlier this month, NBC News reported that the Trump administration had started developing detailed plans to send US troops and intelligence officers into Mexico to target cartels in operations that would include drone strikes. The report said that the administration wanted to coordinate the operations with the Mexican government, but was also considering conducting the campaign without Mexico’s approval, which would constitute a serious violation of the country’s sovereignty.Trump was asked on Monday if he would seek the Mexican government’s permission before launching strikes and said he “wouldn’t answer that question.” He added that he has been “speaking” with Mexico and that they “know how I stand.”

Will Ecuador allow US troops on its soil? - Ecuador's president wants to change his country's constitution, and Ecuadorians will get to say whether they agree in a referendum this weekend. To be held on November 16, the vote will decide whether a nearly 20-year constitutional clause banning foreign militaries from having a presence in the country is repealed. Surveys by the Cedatos polling firm suggest nearly two-thirds of the country is supportive of the change. If passed, it would allow the US to occupy bases on Ecuador's Pacific coastline. For Ecuador, it would strengthen ties to the US and potentially improve efforts to fight local violence. For the Trump Administration, it would be a boon for its campaign against drug trafficking networks across the region, which has seen nearly two-dozen military strikes on purported drug vessels in South and Central American waters. Ecuador's president, Daniel Noboa, has already hosted US Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem ahead of the vote, with the pair touring former US military sites in the coastal towns of Manta and Salinas now used by Ecuador's military. A third site in the Galapagos Islands has been ruled out by Noboa. Manta was the operational hub for US interception activities until 2008. US forces departed that year following the recasting of the constitution by former leader Rafael Correa, which barred foreign military presence. "The reason for the base in Manta was to allow, basically, US surveillance planes to patrol those waters," said Evan Ellis, a Latin America Research Professor at the US Army War College Strategic Studies Institute. "So you could do a more effective job on interdiction of the drug boats that were going in the eastern Pacific. "Without that, the US was forced to shift to other locations [outside of Ecuador]." Ecuador was once considered one of South America's more peaceful countries, even though it had long been an important transit point for cocaine and cocaine derivatives from Colombia and Peru. During his presidency from 2007 to 2017 and particularly after 2012, Correa took stronger action against drug gangs, as well as corruption within Ecuador's security forces, according to investigative portal InsightCrime. Critics, however, accuse Correa of having made deals with the drug-dealing mafia. What is certain is that the country’s annual murder rate dropped to historic lows in subsequent years according to Ecuador's statistical office. However, towards the end of the decade, violence increased dramatically. In 2023, more than 8,000 people were murdered in Ecuador – seven times as many as in 2019. Ellis says that Correa's constitutional restrictions deprived the security forces of the ability to combat cross-border crime: "The security forces were dramatically underfinanced, and they lacked capabilities because Ecuador had always been a relatively peaceful, low-violence country," Ellis said. After Correa, Ecuador's heads of state did re-engage the US in security partnerships. Yet only since Noboa taking office in late 2023 and Donald Trump's inauguration in early 2025, the two nations have moved closer again.

Ecuadorians Vote Against Housing US Military Bases - Ecuadorians voted in a referendum on Sunday and rejected measures that would have allowed the US to establish military bases in Ecuador, a blow to the Pentagon’s plans to increase its military presence in the region.About 60% of Ecuadorians rejected the return of foreign military bases to the country. Ecuadorian President Daniel Noboa, who has aligned himself with the Trump administration, said before the vote that a US military presence was needed to help combat drug trafficking and violent crime, but he said he accepted the results of the referendum.“These are the results. We consulted the Ecuadorians, and they have spoken. We have fulfilled what we promised: asking them directly. We respect the will of the Ecuadorian people. Our commitment does not change; it strengthens. We will continue to fight tirelessly for the country that you deserve, with the tools that we have,” Noboa wrote on X on Monday.Ecuador is a major transit hub for cocaine, and Noboa, whose family business has previously been implicated in drug trafficking, has said that70% of the global supply of cocaine flows through his country, which borders Colombia.

Trump accuses Democrats of 'seditious behavior, punishable by death,' for urging military to ignore illegal orders --President Donald Trump on Thursday accused several Democratic lawmakers of “seditious behavior,” calling for them to “be arrested and put on trial” for behavior that, he said, could be “punishable by death.”The lawmakers, many of whom are veterans, had posted a video Tuesday telling military and intelligence officers to "refuse illegal orders."“It’s called SEDITIOUS BEHAVIOR AT THE HIGHEST LEVEL. Each one of these traitors to our Country should be ARRESTED AND PUT ON TRIAL. Their words cannot be allowed to stand — We won’t have a Country anymore!!! An example MUST BE SET,” the presidentwrote in one Truth Social post Thursday morning, linking to an article about the video from the Washington Examiner. “This is really bad, and Dangerous to our Country. Their words cannot be allowed to stand. SEDITIOUS BEHAVIOR FROM TRAITORS!!! LOCK THEM UP???” Trump wrote in another post.In a third, he wrote: "SEDITIOUS BEHAVIOR, punishable by DEATH!"Trump also reposted multiple posts from other Truth Social users about the video, including one that said, “Hang them George Washington would.”The lawmakers in the video, which Michigan Sen. Elissa Slotkin posted Tuesday, are all military veterans and former intelligence officials who spoke directly to members of the military and intelligence community.“We know you are under enormous stress and pressure right now. Americans trust their military but that trust is at risk,” said the Democratic lawmakers, including Slotkin, Sen. Mark Kelly of Arizona and Reps. Chris Deluzio of Pennsylvania, Maggie Goodlander of New Hampshire, Chrissy Houlahan of Pennsylvania and Jason Crow of Colorado.“This administration is pitting our uniformed military and intelligence community professionals against American citizens. Like us, you all swore an oath to protect and defend this Constitution. Right now, the threats coming to our Constitution aren’t just coming from abroad but from right here at home. Our laws are clear. You can refuse illegal orders. You must refuse illegal orders,” they added. “No one has to carry out orders that violate the law or our Constitution.” They did not call for opposition to any specific policies or orders.On Tuesday, the day that Slotkin posted the video, Trump adviser Stephen Miller condemned it, accusing the Democratic lawmakers of “openly calling for insurrection.”Slotkin defended the video, writing in a separate post, “This is the law. Passed down from our Founding Fathers, to ensure our military upholds its oath to the Constitution — not a king. Given you’re directing much of a military policy, you should buff up on the Uniformed Code of Military Justice.”Deluzio said the lawmakers felt compelled to remind troops of their duty to ignore any illegal orders following concerns raised in recent reporting, “the people are expressing privately or otherwise about decisions coming from this administration and whether they might be placed in a position to have to order something that’s not lawful.”

Dem leaders bash Trump for touting death penalty for lawmakers: ‘Disgusting and dangerous’ - House Democratic leaders hammered President Trump on Thursday after the president suggested a group of Democratic lawmakers should be executed for “seditious behavior.” Behind House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.), the Democratic leaders warned that Trump’s remarks, which targeted six Democrats with military or national security backgrounds, have put the lawmakers at risk of becoming targets of political violence. The Democrats demanded that Trump “immediately delete these unhinged social media posts and recant his violent rhetoric before he gets someone killed.” “We unequivocally condemn Donald Trump’s disgusting and dangerous death threats against Members of Congress and call on House Republicans to forcefully do the same,” said Jeffries, joined by Reps. Katherine Clark (D-Mass.) and Pete Aguilar (D-Calif.), in a statement. “The President’s violent and unhinged rhetoric against American patriots is consistent with his well-documented history of attacking prisoners of war, Gold Star families and war heroes,” they added. “There is no bottom when it comes to Donald Trump.” The controversy surrounds a video released by six Democrats from both chambers urging members of the armed forces not to follow any “illegal orders” during the course of their duties. Appearing in the video are Sens. Elissa Slotkin (Mich.) and Mark Kelly (Ariz.) and Reps. Jason Crow (Colo.), Chrissy Houlahan (Pa.), Chris Deluzio (Pa.) and Maggie Goodlander (N.H.). Trump responded on Thursday, characterizing the Democrats as “traitors” to the country and suggesting they should face the death penalty for sedition.

White House defends Trump remarks, says he does not want member of Congress executed - White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt told reporters Thursday that President Trump does not want to execute members of Congress who urged the military not to follow unlawful orders, but that he wants to see them “held accountable.” Trump earlier Thursday responded to a video made by six Democrats with military and intelligence backgrounds, calling it “seditious behavior from traitors” and later posting “SEDITIOUS BEHAVIOR, punishable by DEATH!” “Does the president want to execute members of Congress?” a reporter asked Leavitt. “No,” Leavitt said. “Many in this room want to talk about the president’s response, but not what brought the president to responding in this way.” Leavitt disputed that the president had given any illegal orders and accused the lawmakers of inciting violence. “To suggest and encourage that active duty service members defy the chain of command is a very dangerous thing for sitting members of Congress to do,” Leavitt added. “And they should be held accountable. And that’s what the president wants to see.” The video featured Sens. Elissa Slotkin (Mich.) and Mark Kelly (Ariz.), and Reps. Jason Crow (Colo.), Chrissy Houlahan (Pa.), Chris Deluzio (Pa.) and Maggie Goodlander (N.H.), all of whom have served in the military or as intelligence officers. While the lawmakers did not point to any particular action by the White House, the video comes as the Trump administration has carried out deadly strikes in the Caribbean and blown up boats it has accused of ferrying drugs. The Trump administration has not provided evidence to back its claims, and law enforcement typically interdicts boats suspected of drug activity.

Murphy urges influential Americans to ‘pick a f‑‑‑ing side’ after Trump ‘seditious’ posts - Sen. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.) on Thursday urged influential Americans to “pick a f‑‑‑ing side” after President Trump referred to a group of Democrats as “traitors.” “The President of the United States just called for Democratic members of Congress to be executed. ‘HANG THEM’, he posted,” Murphy said in a post on the social platform X. “If you’re a person of influence in this country and you haven’t picked a side, maybe now would be the time to pick a f‑‑‑ing side,” he added. On Thursday, President Trump in Truth Social posts referred to a group of Democrats as “traitors,” suggesting they should be imprisoned and punished “by death” in the wake of the lawmakers pushing members of the military to go against unlawful orders from the administration. Murphy’s comment on X refers to another Truth Social post shared by Trump in which a user wrote, “HANG THEM GEORGE WASHINGTON WOULD !!” The president was replying to a video featuring six Democrats with military and intelligence backgrounds. The video addresses members of the military, stating, “Our laws are clear. You can refuse illegal orders.” Trump, along with others in his administration, pounced on the video to declare the lawmakers were undermining the government. “This is really bad, and Dangerous to our Country. Their words cannot be allowed to stand. SEDITIOUS BEHAVIOR FROM TRAITORS!!! LOCK THEM UP???” Trump said on Truth Social. “SEDITIOUS BEHAVIOR, punishable by DEATH!” another message posted by the president reads. Trump’s posts come after multiple notable instances of political violence in America, including the assassination of Charlie Kirk and the assassination attempts against the president himself. “Donald Trump has made political violence a feature of his politics. Today he crossed yet another line that NO democracy can afford to tolerate. He must be condemned—forcefully, loudly, and without excuses,” Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) said Thursday in his own post on X.

US government begins deportation of longtime US residents to Ukraine war zone - On Monday, the Trump administration began deporting over 80 people to Ukraine, where they face conscription and martial law under the US-backed Zelensky regime. Many of those facing deportation have lived in the United States since they were children. Since the 2022 Russian invasion, casualties have mounted on both sides as drone warfare and industrial-scale artillery bombardments grow more lethal. While the Ukrainian government refuses to give an accurate accounting of the dead, US intelligence agencies estimate that roughly 100,000 Ukrainian soldiers have been killed, with several hundred thousand more injured. To replenish units, or in some cases reconstitute those that have been annihilated, the Zelensky government has expanded draft eligibility, imposed harsher fines for evasion and blocked men from leaving the country. It has also intensified home raids, street sweeps and random checkpoints to seize draft-age men. These press-gang methods have become routine as the government attempts to stabilize its collapsing military position. Monday’s deportation flight directly serves this effort. An anonymous adviser to Zelensky confirmed that the government is prepared to accept as many immigrants as the United States can deport in service of the imperialist war. “The US can deport as many as they want. We will find good use for them.” President Donald Trump, left, greets Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky as he arrives at the White House, Monday, Aug. 18, 2025, in Washington. [AP Photo/Alex Brandon] The deportations are flagrantly illegal under international law. In 1951, after the horrors of the Second World War and the refusal of capitalist governments to protect Jewish refugees and other victims of fascism, the United Nations held the Refugee Convention to establish rights and protections for refugees. The core principle agreed to at the convention was that a refugee should not be returned to a country where they face “serious threats to their life or freedom.” It also outlined basic standards for refugees, including the right to “housing, work and education.” There is no question that those facing deportation to Ukraine will face “serious threats to their life.” A flight carrying the immigrants landed in Baltimore on Monday before continuing to Poland. Once the plane arrives, the deportees will be driven to the Ukraine-Poland border. From there, some will be conscripted into the Ukrainian military, which includes openly neo-Nazi and fascist battalions, and sent to the front lines. One of the longtime US residents facing deportation is Roman Surovtsev, father to two US citizen daughters and husband to Samantha, also a US citizen. Surovtsev fled with his mother and two siblings from the USSR in 1988 after his father, a Chernobyl nuclear power plant worker, died of radiation poisoning. Upon arrival in the United States, the family members forfeited their USSR citizenship and lived in poverty in California. As a child, Surovtsev helped his mother clean offices as they attempted to rebuild their lives. Surovtsev met his future wife Samantha in 2017. They have two daughters, ages three and five. Since August, neither child has seen their father after ICE detained him during a routine check-in.

Trump border czar says Catholic Church ‘wrong’ on mass deportations - Border czar Tom Homan rebuked the Conference of Bishops on Friday for condemning mass deportation efforts in the United States led by the Trump administration. “The Catholic Church is wrong,” Homan told reporters at the White House. “I’m a lifelong Catholic, but I’m saying it not only as a border czar, but I’m also saying this as a Catholic,” he added. On Wednesday, the U.S. Conference of Bishops issued a statement rebuking the administration’s “indiscriminate” efforts to remove immigrants. “We are disturbed when we see among our people a climate of fear and anxiety around questions of profiling and immigration enforcement,” the statement reads. “We are saddened by the state of contemporary debate and the vilification of immigrants.” Their message came after Pope Leo XIV directed bishops in the U.S. to speak openly about their concerns over President Trump’s mass deportation agenda. However, Homan said the administration’s goal remains firmly cemented. “A secure border saves lives. We’re going to enforce the law and by doing that we save a lot of lives,” Homan said Friday. “ICE [Immigration and Customs Enforcement] is sending a message to the whole world.”

National Guard troops to leave Chicago, Portland amid backlash: Reports - The Trump administration is set to withdraw some National Guard troops from Chicago and Portland, Ore., according to multiple reports. The New York Times reported Sunday that two U.S. officials said hundreds of National Guard soldiers were being pulled by the Defense Department from the two cities. The officials also said that around 200 members of the California National Guard who went to Portland and 200 members of the Texas National Guard who went to Chicago would go back to their respective states starting as soon as Sunday.In the last few months, the National Guard was deployed to Democratic-leaning cities including Los Angeles; Washington, D.C.; Chicago; and Portland. The Trump administration has said the troops were required to fight crime and enforce immigration law. Recent National Guard deployments have resulted in heavy backlash from local officials and residents of the cities, with figures like California Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) and Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker (D) pushing back on them. “President Trump is ordering 400 members of the Texas National Guard for deployments to Illinois, Oregon, and other locations within the United States. No officials from the federal government called me directly to discuss or coordinate,” Pritzker said in a thread on the social platform X in early October. “We must now start calling this what it is: Trump’s Invasion. It started with federal agents, it will soon include deploying federalized members of the Illinois National Guard against our wishes, and it will now involve sending in another state’s military troops,” he added.

Trump refused to send disaster aid to Chicago after 2 devastating storms - President Donald Trump, who has assailed Illinois’ governor and its largest city, denied disaster aid to thousands of Chicago residents even though his administration documented extraordinary damage from two major storms this summer, records obtained by POLITICO’s E&E News show. Trump’s denials are the first time any president since at least 2007 — including Trump to this point — has refused to help residents recover from such extensive damage to their homes, federal records show. Trump denied both aid requests from Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker (D) on Oct. 22, two weeks after saying Pritzker and Chicago Mayor Brandon Johnson (D) “should be in jail” for “failing to protect” federal immigration enforcement officers. Trump has traded barbs with Illinois officials for months. The president has called Chicago a “hellhole,” drawn protests over immigration raids in the city and tried to dispatch National Guard troops to the state. Pritzker has sued to block the dispatch by Trump — dubbing him a “wannabe dictator.” Johnson has called Trump “a monster.” White House spokesperson Abigail Johnson answered questions about Trump’s denials by highlighting Illinois’ status as a sanctuary state for undocumented immigrants. Pritzker “should know how to balance his budget for these types of repetitive losses,” Johnson said in a statement to E&E News, referring to damaging storms, “but instead prioritizes the state’s budget for illegals over Americans.” Trump handles each disaster request “with great care and consideration, ensuring American tax dollars are used appropriately and efficiently by the states to supplement—not substitute, their obligation to respond to and recover from disasters,” Johnson added. Trump’s denial of disaster aid has left thousands of residents in Cook County, which encompasses Chicago, waiting to remove mold and to repair homes that were damaged by flooding from a storm in July or a storm in August, said Alex Joves, executive director of the county’s emergency management agency. “Damage still remains for many residents,” Joves said in an email.

Immigration Gestapo descends on Charlotte, carrying out mass arrests and drawing protests -- On Saturday morning, heavily armed federal immigration agents, backed by a Black Hawk helicopter, began abduction operations in Charlotte, North Carolina, the 14th largest city in the United States and home to nearly 1 million people. While it appears that most of the raids are centered in Charlotte, with roughly 155,000 residents born outside the US (more than 17 percent of the population), federal agents have also been spotted in suburbs and rural communities near the city. On Saturday, after five hours of raids on restaurants, churches, Walmart and Home Depot parking lots, fascist Customs and Border Protection (CBP) commander Gregory Bovino claimed that immigration agents had arrested or detained 81 people. Without providing any evidence, Bovino said “many” of those arrested had “significant criminal and immigration history.” Several others were taken by immigration agents Sunday morning while shopping at grocery stores and using automatic teller machines. In a thuggish video produced and distributed by the Department of Homeland Security on X, Bovino gave a speech to armed and masked agents following Saturday morning’s raids, declaring, “This is our f___ing country... nobody tells us where to go, when to go, how to go in our f___ing country.” As was the case in Chicago, Los Angeles, San Diego and Washington D.C., the flooding of federal immigration agents into the city has provoked anger among large sections of the population, regardless of immigration status. Protests against the raids drew hundreds of people in Charlotte on Saturday and in Raleigh on Sunday. At the rally on Sunday, protesters held signs saying “defend the people” and “depose the rulers.” Another said, “ICE melts under resistance.” At least two people who participated in a Sunday morning protest outside a Department of Homeland Security office in Charlotte were taken to an FBI office, according to attorney Xavier T. de Janon. Speaking to the Charlotte Observer, de Janon said he did not know what, if any, charges his clients were facing. Later in the afternoon, de Janon found out that one of his clients was taken to Gaston County jail while another was dropped off at a public park. In one of several videos showing local residents standing in defense of immigrants, Rheba, a local homeowner, confronted CBP thugs who were trying to kidnap Hispanic workers hanging Christmas lights for her. Rheba explained, “We had two Hispanic workers decorating our Christmas tree” when Border Patrol agents, without presenting a warrant or even acknowledging her, “rolled up on the sidewalk here.” She continued, “Two guys popped out fully armed with all their gear and they began speaking in Spanish.” Rheba said she pulled out her phone and began recording the agents and they left without saying a word to her. As the agents scurried away, Rheba summoned her courage and yelled, “Get the hell out of my yard you assholes!” Contrary to claims offered by immigration police, the raids are not targeted operations but indiscriminate attacks on the working class, especially those of Hispanic descent. On Saturday, Will Aceituno, a Honduran-born US citizen, said he was harassed and accosted on two separate occasions by federal agents Saturday morning. Aceituno was driving to get breakfast when he noticed two Latinos “running really fast” with immigration agents trailing them. To avoid the agents, Aceituno said he went inside a local restaurant to get his breakfast. As he parked his truck, several government vehicles surrounded him, with agents pouring out demanding to know his immigration status. Aceituno said he talked with the agents for “like twenty minutes” and provided them documentation proving his status. He said that following that interaction he went into the restaurant to get his breakfast to go. About two minutes later he came out with his food and got into his vehicle, at which point agents again surrounded his vehicle and blocked him. He said the agents, speaking in English, began tapping on his door and told him to open it. Aceituno said he was confused, but was moving to open his door when he heard an agent yell, “I’m going to break the window.” Aceituno objected, telling the agents, “No. If you break it, you will pay for it.” Video shot by Aceituno shows a masked thug breaking his truck window, sending broken glass inside and outside the vehicle. Two masked agents then grabbed Aceituno and tried to pull him out of the vehicle, which they were not able to do at first. Eventually, Aceituno was dragged outside the vehicle. He attempted to film the agents with his cell phone but they smacked it out of his hand before throwing him to the ground, scuffing his elbows in the process. The agents again asked Aceituno his status, to which he replied, “I am a citizen of this country.” After about 10 minutes, the agents finally let him go. Aceituno advised Hispanics in the area to stay home because “these guys are acting like bitches.”

DHS planning to send hundreds of agents to Louisiana: Report - The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) is sending roughly 250 federal immigration officers to New Orleans, The Associated Press reported Tuesday.The operation, dubbed “Swamp Sweep,” intends to arrest roughly 5,000 people across southeast Louisiana and Mississippi. It will begin Dec. 1, according to the AP.When reached for comment, DHS spokesperson Tricia McLaughlin said the department does “not discuss future or potential operations.” The Trump administration has launched immigration enforcement endeavors in Democratic-run cities across the country, including Los Angeles, Chicago and Charlotte, N.C. New Orleans, currently led by Mayor LaToya Cantrell (D), has not had a Republican mayor since the 1870s. Federal immigration officers arrested more than 200 people in Charlotte across the first three days of itsoperation in the Tar Heel State, a DHS official told The Hill on Tuesday.As of 2023, roughly 110,000 migrants lived in Louisiana without legal permission, while about 40,000 migrants were illegally in Mississippi, according to the Pew Research Center. That represents an increase of 40,000 and 20,000 people, respectively, relative to 2021.In both states, more than half of such migrants had lived in the U.S. formore than five years, as of 2023.

China has only bought 332,000 tons of U.S. soybeans since Trump made a deal with Xi Jinping that promised 12 million by year’s end --New data the Agriculture Department released Friday created serious doubts about whether China will really buy millions of bushels of American soybeans like the Trump administration touted last month after a high-stakes meeting between President Donald Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping. The USDA report released after the government reopened showed only two Chinese purchases of American soybeans since the summit in South Korea that totaled 332,000 metric tons. That’s well short of the 12 million metric tons that Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins said China agreed to purchase by January and nowhere near the 25 million metric tons she said they would buy in each of the next three years. American farmers were hopeful that their biggest customer would resume buying their crops. But CoBank’s Tanner Ehmke, who is its lead economist for grains and oilseed, said there isn’t much incentive for China to buy from America right now because they have plenty of soybeans on hand that they have bought from Brazil and other South American countries this year, and the remaining tariffs ensure that U.S. soybeans remain more expensive than Brazilian beans. “We are still not even close to what has been advertised from the U.S. in terms of what the agreement would have been,” Ehmke said.Beijing has yet to confirm any detailed soybean purchase agreement but only that the two sides have reached “consensus” on expanding trade in farm products. Ehmke said that even if China did promise to buy American soybeans it may have only agreed to buy them if the price was attractive. Trump said his team spoke with Chinese officials today and they assured the White House they would be purchasing more soybeans, but he didn’t offer any details of how much. “They’re in the process of doing not only a little bit but they’ll be doing a lot of soybean purchases,” he told reporters. The Chinese tariff on American beans remains high at about 24%, despite a 10-percentage-point reduction following the summit. Soybean prices fell sharply by 23 cents to $11.24 per bushel Friday. Ehmke said “that’s the market being shocked by the lack of Chinese demand that was confirmed in USDA data today.” Prices are still higher than they were before the agreement when they were selling for $10.60 per bushel, but the price may continue to drop unless there are significant new purchases. Before the trade agreement, Trump had promised farmers would receive an aid package to help them survive the trade war with China. That was put on hold during the shutdown, and now it’s not clear whether the administration will offer farmers aid like Trump did in his first administration. American farmers have been through this before after Trump’s first trade war with China. The trade agreement China signed with the United States in 2020 promised massive purchases of U.S. crops. But the COVID-19 pandemic disrupted trade between the two nations just as the agreement went into effect. In 2022, U.S. farm exports to China hit a record, but then fell. Soybean prices are actually still a little higher than they were a year ago even without China’s normal purchases of roughly one-quarter of the U.S. crop. That’s because this year’s soybean crop is a little smaller while domestic demand remained strong with the continued growth in biodiesel production. But farmers are dealing with the soaring cost of fertilizer, seed, equipment and labor this year, and that is hurting their profits. The Kentucky farmer who is president of the American Soybean Association, Caleb Ragland, has said he worries that thousands of farmers could go out of business this year without significant Chinese purchases or government aid. “We’re still looking at sharp losses and the red ink as we figure budgets for 26 is still very much in play,” he said.

Donald Trump tariffs could cause prices of imported Italian-made pasta to surge — Pasta lovers in America might soon see their favorite brands disappear from supermarket shelves over potential tariffs from the Trump administration.The Commerce Department in September published a plan that would add a new 92 percent antidumping duty after a U.S. government probe found that some Italian pasta brands. However, with the existing 15 percent tariff on European Union imports, the total duties on Italian-made pasta could rise to 107 percent “It’s an incredibly important market for us,” Giuseppe Ferro, La Molisana’s chief executive, told the Wall Street Journal. “But no one has those kinds of margins.”“It would be a real shame to have the market snatched from us for no real reason.”The 13 brands that could be affected include: (list) vLast year, the Commerce Department probed Italian pasta manufacturers after complaints from two U.S. companies, 8th Avenue Food & Provisions and Winland Foods. The companies alleged that several Italian pasta producers were “dumping” their pasta into U.S. markets, essentially exporting large amounts to the U.S. in order to lower prices and drive out competition.

Donald Trump's proposed $2K payments require Congress approval: Scott Bessent - Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on Sunday that President Trump’s proposal to send $2,000 to most Americans will first require Congress to pass legislation. In an interview on Fox News’s “Sunday Morning Futures,” Bessent touted Trump’s effort to address affordability and lower the cost of living, but hedged when asked about the possibility of direct checks. “We will see. We need legislation for that,” Bessent told host Maria Bartiromo, when asked if Trump will be sending direct payments of $2,000 or more to Americans. “Again, President Trump is all about solutions, Maria,” he continued. “Everything is on the table, but I will tell you that, again, thanks to him keeping his campaign promises to working Americans with the … no tax on tips, Social Security, overtime, we are going to see a big bump in the first quarter with the refunds and the real incomes.” “President Trump has also talked about sending $2,000 refunds, and that would be for working families, will have an income limit. Those could go out” Bessent said, before adding, “So President Trump is committed to getting the money back to families.” Trump said earlier this month that every American, except “high income people,” will receive a “dividend of at least $2000,” from the revenue generated by Trump’s tariffs on imports. The renewed focus on affordability comes after Democrats’ sweeping victories in this month’s elections, with many successful candidates running disciplined campaigns focused on affordability. Sign up for the Morning Report The latest in politics and policy. Direct to your inbox. Email address By signing up, I agree to the Terms of Use, have reviewed the Privacy Policy, and to receive personalized offers and communications via email, on-site notifications, and targeted advertising using my email address from The Hill, Nexstar Media Inc., and its affiliates Trump on Friday signed an executive order cutting tariffs on scores of products in a bid to lower some grocery prices. The goods no longer subject to tariffs include coffee, tea, beef, bananas, tropical fruit, wood and iron.

USDA head says ‘everyone’ on SNAP will now have to reapply - Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins on Thursday said the Trump administration is planning to have all Supplemental Nutritional Assistance Program (SNAP) beneficiaries reapply for the program due to alleged fraud.The secretary said after receiving data on SNAP recipients from 29 red states that “186,000 deceased men and women and children in this country are receiving a check.”“Can you imagine when we get our hands on the blue state data what we’re going to find?” she asked during a Thursday appearance on Newsmax’s “Rob Schmitt Tonight.”“It’s going to give us a platform and a trajectory to fundamentally rebuild this program, have everyone reapply for their benefit, make sure that everyone that’s taking a taxpayer-funded benefit through SNAP or food stamps, that they literally are vulnerable, and they can’t survive without it,” she added.Every state has a periodic recertification process that requires SNAP or food stamp recipients to update their whereabouts and earnings, according to the Department of Agriculture (USDA). Most municipalities require updated data every six to 12 months.“Secretary Rollins wants to ensure the fraud, waste, and incessant abuse of SNAP ends,” a USDA spokesperson said in a statement to The Hill. “Rates of fraud were only previously assumed, and President Trump is doing something about it. Using standard recertification processes for households is a part of that work. As well as ongoing analysis of State data, further regulatory work, and improved collaboration with States. “Earlier this month, food stamps were threatened amid the government shutdown as the Trump administration argued against using contingency funds to fuel the welfare program.Families and individuals are expected to receive benefits in full by Monday, Rollins said on Thursday.

Report: NIH clinical trial cuts impact 74,000 people - More than 74,000 people have had their lives disrupted by Trump administration cuts to clinical trials supported by the National Institutes of Health (NIH), according to a report released Monday. From the end of February to August, the administration’s unprecedented broadside against the NIH resulted in funding losses for 383 clinical trials, new research published in the journal JAMA Internal Medicine found. The cuts impacted trials disproportionately studying infectious diseases like COVID-19; prevention for cancer, heart disease and brain disease; and behavioral interventions. Most of the clinical trials were based in the Northeastern U.S. or in other countries. Researchers counted 11,008 NIH-funded studies; 1 in 30 lost funding. The ended trials mean there could be a potential treatment or cure that isn’t discovered. Shortly after President Trump retook office, his administration directed agencies to terminate funding for diversity, equity and inclusion initiatives, as well as any programs it considers wasteful. The Supreme Court greenlighted the Trump administration’s continued termination of NIH funding in August, though separate legal challenges managed to disparately preserve some grants. Challenges to the NIH’s attempted cuts to the “indirect costs” of medical research are also making their way through the courts. “Unanticipated funding disruptions raise concerns about avoidable waste, data quality, and compromised ethical obligations to participants,” the authors wrote. An editorial accompanying the study called the cancellations a violation of the ethical principles of human participant research. “For some participants, enrolling in a trial was a source of hope, in situations when other treatment options were inadequate. For some, participating in the study was a part of their legacy, a way they hoped to contribute to humankind, which will now be denied,” the editorial said.

Medicare Plan B premiums to jump 10 percent in 2026 - Medicare Part B premiums will rise by about 10 percent in 2026 according to a notice from the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS). The CMS released a notice laying out the monthly actuarial rates for Medicare Part B beneficiaries beginning in 2026. For seniors and disabled enrollees, the monthly actuarial rates will be $405.40 and $585.60. “The 2026 premium is 9.7 percent or $17.90 higher than the 2025 standard premium rate of $185.00,” the notice stated, leaving a total of $202.90. This jump is almost twice the percentage increase seen in 2025, when the standard monthly Part B premium rate went up from $174.70 in 2024 to $185. The deductible for all Part B enrollees next year will be $283. Medicare Part B covers certain medical costs including ambulance services, outpatient hospital services, some prescription drugs, medical equipment, oxygen equipment and services for substance use disorders. The Trump administration claimed the increase would have been higher had the CMS not taken action on skin substitutes earlier this year. Skin substitutes are biologic or synthetic products used for outpatient wound care. The CMS proposed in July measures to “reduce waste and unnecessary use of skin substitutes.” The agency cited data showing Medicare Part B spending on skin substitutes had gone from $256 million in 2019 to more than $10 billion in 2024. The Department of Health and Human Services Office of Inspector General said in September that skin substitutes appear to be “particularly vulnerable to questionable billing and fraud schemes.” “The increase in the 2026 Part B standard premium and deductible is mainly due to projected price changes and assumed utilization increases that are consistent with historical experience. If the Trump Administration had not taken action to address unprecedented spending on skin substitutes, the Part B premium increase would have been about $11 more a month,” the CMS said in a statement last week announcing next year’s premiums. “However, due to changes finalized in the 2026 Physician Fee Schedule Final Rule, spending on skin substitutes is expected to drop by 90% without affecting patient care.” Rep. Richard Neal (D-Mass.), ranking member of the House Ways and Means Committee, blasted the increased premium rate. “The across-the-board cost increases in Medicare announced by the Trump Administration show that nobody will be spared from their endless assault on people’s wallets and the public health system,” Neal said in a statement Monday. “Not content with exorbitant premium hikes for those who purchase their own coverage, Trump has taken action to raise costs for all Americans with employer coverage and is now hiking costs for people covered by Medicare by more than $200 a year.”

Trump says he’s talking to Democrats about direct health care payment plan - President Trump said he is talking with Democrats about a direct health care payment plan Sunday amid negotiations to tackle rising health insurance premiums. “I’ve had personal talks with some Democrats,” Trump told reporters in West Palm Beach, Fla., on Sunday before returning to Washington. The president did not name the Democrats he said has been speaking to, but said he has talked to them “about paying large amounts of dollars back to the people.” The president has touted paying money from the insurance companies directly back to Americans, and letting them purchase their own health insurance. Trump told reporters Sunday that everyone has “picked up” on the idea, including Democrats. “People love it,” the president said. “The insurance companies are making a fortune,” he said. “Their stock is up over a thousand percent over a short period of time. They are taking in hundreds of billions of dollars, and they’re not really putting it back, certainly like they should.” The president’s comments come as the Senate grapples with how to handle rising health insurance premiums now that the government shutdown has come to a close.

Oz: Trump administration weighing Affordable Care Act subsidies extension -- Dr. Mehmet Oz, the administrator for the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS), said Sunday the Trump administration is holding “discussions” on extending subsidies offered under the Affordable Care Act (ACA). “There are discussions around extending the subsidies, if we deal with the fraud, waste and abuse that, right now, is paralyzing the system,” Oz told host Dana Bash on CNN’s “State of the Union.” The majority of fraud Oz is referencing concerns agents, brokers, web brokers and third parties that enroll people in the ACA marketplace, according to health policy research group KFF. The ACA subsidies, which expire at the end of this year, were a source of conflict during the 43-day government shutdown. Republicans in Congress sought to reopen the government first before negotiating on the credits, while the majority of Democrats pushed for an extension to be included in any funding bill. The continuing resolution President Trumpsigned into law Wednesday did not include an extension of the subsidies, which were first offered during the COVID-19 pandemic and extended by the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act. Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) has promised a December vote on an extension in the upper chamber, while House Democrats introduced a discharge petition Wednesday intended to force consideration of a three-year extension of the credits. Health insurance premiums for 2026 are projected to be $50 per month for the lowest-cost plan, an increase of $13 relative to this year, before accounting for the potential expiration of the subsidies, according to the CMS.

GOP Sen. Bill Cassidy criticizes CDC's new vaccine-autism language -Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-La.) on Thursday said the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) removing language from its website refuting the theory that vaccines are linked to autism was “deeply troubling.” Late on Wednesday, the CDC walked back its long-held position that vaccines do not cause autism. A CDC web page that previously stated “there is no link” between receiving vaccines and developing autism now says that statement “is not an evidence-based claim because studies have not ruled out the possibility that infant vaccines cause autism.” Health and Human Services (HHS) Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has long supported the theory that vaccines are linked to autism, adamantly refusing to discount it when confronted by Cassidy during one of his confirmation hearings. “I’m a doctor who has seen people die from vaccine-preventable diseases. What parents need to hear right now is vaccines for measles, polio, hepatitis B and other childhood diseases are safe and effective and will not cause autism. Any statement to the contrary is wrong, irresponsible, and actively makes Americans sicker,” Cassidy wrote on the social media platform X. Next During Kennedy’s confirmation hearing, Cassidy made it clear that the then-nominee’s anti-vaccine beliefs were a sticking point in confirming him, saying he was “struggling” with that specific issue. Nevertheless, Cassidy ultimately voted for Kennedy for HHS secretary after receiving assurances from the White House. Since confirming Kennedy, Cassidy has continued to butt heads with him when it comes to vaccinations, getting into a heated exchange during a September hearing over the canceling of $500 million in contracts for mRNA research. He’s also expressed apprehension about potential changes to the hepatitis B vaccine schedule, which will be voted on by the CDC’s Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices next month. The committee was remade by Kennedy earlier this year with members sympathetic to his views on immunization. “We need to understand the real causes of autism. Studies show there’s a genetic predisposition when a mom who’s pregnant is exposed to environmental toxins which can increase a child’s risk of autism,” Cassidy wrote on Thursday. “It’s deeply troubling that, according to HHS officials, they appeared to have canceled hundreds of millions in research on autism genetics. Redirecting attention to factors we definitely know DO NOT cause autism denies families the answers they deserve.”

After unprecedented autism-vaccine messaging change, scientists, advocates say CDC no longer trustworthy - For nearly 80 years, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) was respected around the world for its authoritative, evidence-based leadership in public health. But the CDC’s stunning reversal Wednesday—stating on its website that “studies have not ruled out the possibility that infant vaccines cause autism”—shows the agency can no longer be trusted, multiple doctors and public health advocates told CIDRAP News. Until late yesterday, the CDC webpage accurately stated, “Studies have shown that there is no link between receiving vaccines and developing autism spectrum disorder (ASD). No links have been found between any vaccine ingredients and ASD.” Today, the CDC website echoes the views of Health and Human Services (HHS) Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who has claimed without evidence that vaccines cause autism. The CDC website now states, “The claim ‘vaccines do not cause autism’ is not an evidence-based claim because studies have not ruled out the possibility that infant vaccines cause autism.” Instead of a global leader in science, the CDC has devolved into “a propaganda machine for RFK Jr.'s fixed, immutable, science-resistant theories,” said Paul Offit, MD, an infectious disease specialist at Children’s Hospital of Philadelphia and co-inventor of the rotavirus vaccine. “The CDC is being weaponized to promote RFK Jr.’s anti-vaccine point of view. So why should you trust it?” Many public health experts who spoke to CIDRAP News sounded sorrowful. “Today is a tragic day for public health, for the US government,” said Michael T. Osterholm, PhD, MPH, director of the University of Minnesota's Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy (publisher of CIDRAP News). “Ideology has replaced science as the means for addressing life-saving research and best practices that save lives.” Many physicians worry that the CDC’s new message will dissuade parents from vaccinating their children. “This will cause real harm,” said Jake Scott, MD, an infectious disease expert and clinical associate professor at the Stanford University School of Medicine. “Parents searching for trustworthy information will find official CDC language that appears to validate concerns that have been thoroughly debunked. Some will delay or skip vaccines. We know what happens next—preventable diseases return to communities with low vaccination rates.” The CDC also removed scientific reviews of vaccines from its website. The website now rehashes conspiracy theories claiming that government scientists and the medical community have hidden the truth about vaccines, claiming, that “studies supporting a link have been ignored by health authorities.” We know what happens next—preventable diseases return to communities with low vaccination rates. Attacking scientists as dishonest and corrupt comes straight out of the anti-vaccine playbook, said Peter Hotez, MD, codirector of the Texas Children’s Hospital Center for Vaccine Development, who also helped develop an affordable, unpatented COVID-19 vaccine. “This is how the wellness influencer industry works,” Hotez said. “It’s not enough to push the snake oil. You have to discredit mainstream biomedical science and portray scientists as public enemies or cartoon villains, and that's what Kennedy’s seeking to do.”

5 ways our health care system has become utterly insane - Katelyn Jetelina | Your Local Epidemiologist - While Congress debates whether to extend subsidies for the Affordable Care Act (ACA) coverage, Americans with all types of insurance are bracing for higher premiums, narrower networks, and more impossible choices. So, to me, the debate in Washington is far too small. The real story isn’t just whether subsidies stay or go—it’s how completely insane our health care system has become, and whether there will be a serious effort to address underlying costs in the system. I know juuussstttt enough to get in trouble, so I partnered with the incredible Hayden Rooke-Ley, who is a leading national policy expert in this area, to break down the five ways the entire system has gone off the rails.

• 1. Over the past two decades, the cost of employer-sponsored health insurance—how the vast majority of privately insured Americans obtain their health care—has skyrocketed. Premiums, deductibles, and out-of-pocket costs have all soared—far faster than wages. Figure made by Hayden from cobbling together a few sources, including Kaiser Family Foundation and CMS Health Expenditure Projections.This widening gap means workers earn less, even when their salaries rise on paper. Every dollar going to premiums is a dollar not going to rent, groceries, or childcare.And the human toll is clear. One in three Americans has medical debt, and more than half worry they’ll fall into debt any time they use the health care system. That fear changes behavior: people delay appointments, skip medications, or avoid care altogether.Medical debt is now the most common form of debt in collections ahead of credit cards, utilities, or personal loans. Nearly 60% of those in medical debt have insurance.
• 2. We pay the most and get the least. The United States spends far more on health care than any other wealthy country yet achieves worse outcomes, less access, and a more demoralized workforce.
• Outcomes: Despite record spending, Americans live shorter, sicker lives than peers in Europe, Canada, or Japan. Infant mortality, maternal mortality, and chronic disease rates all rank near the worst among high-income nations. A key reason is that we pour money into specialty medical services while underinvesting in prevention, such as primary care and social supports like housing and nutrition.
• Access: Critics often argue that “at least we don’t have long wait times like other countries.” However, increasingly the opposite is true (and this is never a fair comparison, as we spend twice as much as they do). More than 100 million Americans live in a primary-care desert, while almost 60 million live in a pharmacy desert. Services to treat mental health are notoriously lacking, and Medicare does not even cover long-term care.
• Clinician workforce: Health care workers are burning out or leaving the profession altogether. Home health care aides are paid extremely low wages for heroic work. As corporations attempt to convert salaried positions into gig work, some nurses are compelled tobid against one another for shifts. Many physicians report moral injury working in systems that prioritize billing over care, eroding autonomy and morale.
• 3. Americans don’t “overconsume” health care. Prices and private bloat drive costs.There’s a common myth, especially amongst policymakers, that we spend too much on health care because we consume too much of it. A similar narrative has taken hold about doctors: because they get paid for each service, they provide too much care. Certainly, there is low-value care in the U.S. health care system. And as profit-seeking corporate actors own more and more of the system, they’re finding ways to bill for more—and more expensive—services. But Americans don’t visit the doctor more, we don’t go to the hospital more, and we don’t stay in the hospital for longer. We even get significantly fewer of many of the most popular procedures—like coronary angioplasties, knee replacements, hip replacements, and gall bladder and prostate removals. The real difference is price. Take a look at this graph, as one example for hip replacements A colonoscopy or MRI can cost 10 times more at one hospital than another across town, depending on which insurer you have. These differences have little to do with quality or cost of care. They’re the result of opaque negotiations between insurers, hospitals, and pharmacy benefit managers, and other middlemen in the system. We’ve created a system where no one knows what anything costs: not the doctor, not the patient, sometimes not even the insurer. The surprise bill arrives weeks later.On top of high prices, our system is drowning in private-sector bloat and bureaucracy. More so than any other country. Every insurer has its own prices (and endless price negotiations with providers), billing processes, prior authorization rules, and reporting requirements. The result is staggering inefficiency: roughly one in four dollars spent on health insurance goes to something other than care, like marketing, billing, profits, or middlemen. Doctors spend nearly half their time on paperwork. Patients spend hours on hold, fighting over denied claims. And all of it is baked into costs.
• 4. Corporate and financial firms have taken over care. Perhaps the most underappreciated transformation of the past 40 years is the corporate consolidation and financialization of medicine. Care delivery—once local and community-based—is now dominated by corporations. Vertical consolidation is now a defining feature of American health care. UnitedHealth Group isn’t just the largest insurer; it’s also the largest employer of physicians and the largest operator of home health and hospice agencies. CVS Health, the largest pharmacy chain, also owns the biggest pharmacy benefit managers—and now giant insurer, Aetna. McKesson, a pharmaceutical distributor, now operates the nation’s largest chain of oncology practices and is rapidly expanding into other specialties. These combinations raise all the conflicts of interest you’d expect—higher prices, business steered away from independent providers and pharmacies, gaming regulations, and more. Hospitals have been on a similar trajectory. No longer charitable facilities, they’ve been buying up physician practices, starting insurance plans, and operating financial investment firms. Public hospitals have declined sharply, while giant for-profit systems, such as HCA Healthcare and CommonSpirit, have expanded nationwide. In half of U.S. metro areas, just one or two systems dominate the market.Then there’s private equity (PE). From 2000 to 2020, PE’s footprint in health care exploded 25-fold—from $5 billion to more than $100 billion a year in deals, totaling over $1 trillion. Private-equity firms now own everything from nursing homes and hospices, to emergency departments and physician practices. Their model is simple: buy up fragmented practices, cut labor costs, raise prices, and resell for profit. Evidence shows quality declines, and in some cases, mortality rises, after PE takeovers.
• 5. Existing approaches have failed—and the latest proposals are more of the same. None of this happened by coincidence. Our current governing approach began in the 1980s, when a bipartisan consensus emerged around how to address accelerating costs in the system. The idea was to embrace more free market principles in health care, resulting in three significant shifts in how we approached policy:
• Private insurers compete for patients (called managed competition), which was hypothesized to lower costs and improve quality. In reality, the government pays hundreds of billions to the nation’s largest insurance companies, which now operate most of Medicaid and Medicare, and all of the ACA exchanges. The same happened with prescription drugs: instead of Medicare negotiating prices directly with pharmaceuticals, it’s now the job of pharmacy benefit managers (PBMs), costing Americans more.
• Overreliance on economic incentives—the notion that physicians and patients won’t do the right thing unless they have more “skin in the game.” Democrats embraced this ideology by pushing physicians into “value-based care,” a rebranding of HMO-style managed care, and a close cousin of privatized Medicare. On the patient side, Republicans insisted that they actually needed higher deductibles, so they would ration their care more wisely. But, again, Americans don’t “use” too much health care. Plus, a patient can’t “shop” for emergency surgery or chemotherapy.
• Commercialization: The U.S. began converting public hospitals to for-profit chains, and abandoned care delivery models with commitments to voluntarism (i.e., actual non-profits) and professional ethics (i.e., clinician-owned medical clinics).

The current debate recycles the same logic: more private control, higher out-of-pocket costs, and less regulation of prices or profits. The latest idea is that deductibles need to be higher and patients don’t pay enough.This approach has failed for 40 years. It will continue to fail because it doesn’t address the true crisis of U.S. health care: high costs from high prices (especially for new technology); consolidation and extraction at every level; and lackluster and misallocated capacity. Bottom line; The U.S. health care system is uniquely dysfunctional. A different approach is entirely possible—if we have the will to boldly govern the health care system in the interests of patients, clinicians, and taxpayers. That means directly tackling prices, eliminating middlemen, and breaking up behemoths. It also means returning ownership of care delivery to clinicians and communities and pursuing a strategy that builds the workforce and capacity to meet Americans’ needs.Health touches everyone, and we need a system that works for us, not one that makes us work for it.

Democrats push to stop Donald Trump's plan to sell off student loan portfolio - More than 40 Democratic lawmakers are highlighting and trying to prevent reported Trump administration plans to sell the government’s student loan portfolio to the private market. Last month, Politico reported the Education Department and Treasury Department were discussing the sale of the portfolio, a move the Democrats argue in a Sunday letter would be a disaster for student loan borrowers. “Let’s be clear: This sale would be a giveaway to wealthy insiders at the expense of working-class borrowers and taxpayers. It threatens the loss of borrowers’ legally guaranteed protections, and the sale would likely be illegal if the debt is sold at a loss for taxpayers. We urge you to immediately cease any efforts to privatize the federal student loan portfolio,” reads the letter, which was led by Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.). The Democrats argue it is illegal to strip borrowers of certain protections and the Trump administration in the sale of the portfolio could go after income-driven repayment programs, death and disability discharges and relief for those defrauded by their schools. It could also cause losses to the taxpayer, according to Democrats. The law states the student loan portfolio cannot be sold at the expense of the taxpayer. “Furthermore, as a result of a previous failed attempt to sell the student loan portfolio, the Trump Administration already possesses information suggesting that the sale of student loans would not be in the government’s fiscal interest,” the letter said. Asked about the reported plans, Ellen Keast, press secretary for higher education at the Education Department, said, “We are evaluating ways to improve the fiscal health of the nearly $1.7 trillion student loan portfolio to safeguard the interests of both students and taxpayers.”

Capito fumes at Maryland governor over massive cost spike in Key Bridge rebuild - Senate Environment and Public Works Chair Shelley Moore Capito (R-W.Va.) said she told Maryland Gov. Wes Moore this week that she was displeased with a new, costly estimate to rebuild the Francis Scott Key Bridge in Baltimore.Still, in an interview with POLITICO on Wednesday, she stopped short of saying she’d take action to roll back the federal government’s commitment to fully fund the rebuild.The in-person meeting on Capitol Hill between Capito and Moore, a Democrat, happened Tuesday, the day after POLITICO first reported that the cost to replace the bridge could be as much as $5.2 billion. That estimate is more than twice the $1.7 billion-$1.9 billion Moore told Congress it could cost when he was asked lawmakers in 2024 to foot the entire cost of the rebuild. The federal match in such projects is typically 90 percent. Capito, who leads the panel with oversight of federal bridges and highways, said she made sure the governor understood she was not happy with the new number.

Trump proposes to narrow Clean Water Act protections - The Trump administration is proposing to narrow which bodies of water qualify for Clean Water Act protections. The administration proposed a new definition for what counts as a “water of the United States” and is therefore subject to federal pollution regulations under the Clean Water Act. The issue is a controversial one – with developers, farmers and others calling for including fewer bodies of water to make it easier for them to operate. However environmental activists argue that more bodies of water deserve protection in order to prevent pollution, pollution that can flow to important waters. “There will be less that will be regulated by the federal government,” Environmental Protection Agency administrator Lee Zeldin told reporters. Waters of the U.S. require permits for pollution, as well as activities like filling and dredging. Those that are not may not require permits. In general, large, permanent bodies of water like oceans and lakes are considered waters of the U.S., but wetlands and streams have been more contentious. The rule proposed on Monday narrows the scope of the protections by excluding groundwater and also would not automatically provide protections to interstate waters. EPA assistant administrator Jessica Kramer also told reporters that under the proposed rule, ephemeral streams – those that only flow briefly after rain or snowfall – would not be eligible for protections.

Trump plan waives protection at +80% of wetlands - The Trump administration has proposed dramatic new standards under the Clean Water Act that would leave scores of wetlands and small streams more vulnerable to pollution. Just 19 percent of wetlands by acreage — about 17,360,970 acres — in the contiguous U.S that have been mapped by the federal government would be protected under the sweeping draft “waters of the U.S.” definition unveiled Monday. That’s according to an estimate in a regulatory impact analysis conducted by EPA and the Army Corps of Engineers and released alongside the proposed rule. Trump administration officials said the proposal conforms with Sackett v. EPA, a 2023 Supreme Court ruling that asserted that only wetlands that directly touched a relatively permanent waterway – like a river or lake – fell under the scope of the Clean Water Act and the regulatory powers of the federal government. But the administration proposed a more restrictive interpretation of the ruling than the Biden administration did. In addition to having a physical surface connection to waterway, wetlands would need to contain “surface water” at least for the duration of the “wet season” to be considered a WOTUS, the proposal said. “It’s probably the most limiting, the most narrow, interpretation of the reach of jurisdiction that I’ve seen so far,” The effects of the proposal would differ depending on the state. In Arizona, for example, only 2.4 percent of wetlands would likely be “wet” enough to be regulated by the Clean Water Act, the agencies estimated. In Iowa, about 5 percent of wetlands would be covered by the law. About half of states do not have state-level policies to protect or regulate wetlands and rely on the federal Clean Water Act to do so. The proposed rule fulfills many of the requests of energy and business groups with respect to the WOTUS definition. For example, it clearly defines terms that the Supreme Court included in Sackett, such as “continuous surface connection” and “relatively permanent water,” a step the Biden administration largely did on a case-by-case and context-specific basis. EPA and the Army Corps did not quantify the cost savings and foregone benefits of the proposal, a step that is normally included in regulatory changes. The agencies said this was due to “uncertainties associated with the available data” and that they were open to suggestions about how to quantify costs and benefits in a final rule. Members of the public have 45 days to provide comments. EPA’s oversight of streams could also be affected by the changes, the agencies said. For example, streams will now need to have “a bed and banks” in order to fall under the Clean Water Act, the agencies’ analysis asserted. “While many tributaries under the baseline will have a bed and banks, some will not, and those streams would lose their jurisdictional status under the proposed rule,” the analysis continued.

Republicans heap praise on Clean Water Act plan - Republicans praised the Trump administration’s draft rewrite of a key Clean Water Act regulation, calling it a win for farmers, businesses, homebuilders and landowners who would see reduced permitting costs. About half a dozen Republican lawmakers attended an event at EPA headquarters Monday announcing the rollout of the new proposed “waters of the U.S.” definition. Democrats on Capitol Hill fired off statements condemning the proposal but it’s unclear what — if anything — they can do to halt it. Republicans described it as a welcome departure from the Biden administration’s approach and said it would rightfully return regulatory powers from the federal government to the states. “I’m confident that the rule will prioritize clean water while protecting farmers, ranchers, landowners and businesses alike,” said Rep. Gary Palmer (R-Ala.), chair of the Energy and Commerce Subcommittee on the Environment. Democrats called the proposal a blow to the nation’s water supplies, including the wetlands and streams that feed the drinking water sources for millions of Americans. Like Republicans, they are framing their position around costs. “This latest Trump administration action will increase costs on families by making clean drinking water harder to obtain, and cause lasting damage to our rivers, streams, lakes and wetlands,” said Reps. Rick Larsen (D-Wash.), ranking member of the House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee, and Frederica Wilson (D-Fla.), ranking member of the Subcommittee on Water Resources and Environment. Under the Clean Water Act, waters and wetlands cannot be filled in or polluted without a requisite permit from EPA or the Army Corps of Engineers. But the law applies only to “waters of the U.S.,” a term whose definition has changed five times since the mid-2000s and ping-ponged across presidential administrations. The proposal seeks to conform with a landmark 2023 Supreme Court ruling, Sackett v. EPA, which ruled that only wetlands with a “continuous surface connection” to a “relatively permanent” water were covered by the 1972 law. The Biden administration reluctantly amended its WOTUS regulation in response to that high court ruling. But industry groups and property rights advocates argued that the former administration’s approach wasn’t clear. The Transportation and Infrastructure Committee held a hearing last year highlighting those complaints, and Republicans have echoed the concerns. They appear satisfied with the new direction. “The proposed rule ensures that only wetlands with a true, continuous connection to jurisdictional waters fall under federal oversight,” said Sen. Shelley Moore Capito (R-W.Va.), who chairs the Senate Environment and Public Works Committee, in a statement. Sen. Kevin Cramer (R-N.D.), who chairs the Senate Environment and Public Works Subcommittee on Transportation and Infrastructure, said the rule would end the “whiplash” and closely follows the Clean Water Act and Sackett. EPA and the Army Corps estimated that about 73.5 million acres of wetlands — just over 80 percent of the total acreage — in the contiguous 48 states would not be covered by the Clean Water Act under the new definition. But the proposal’s effects on wetlands and streams could vary depending on the state, with arid states generally the most likely to see some waters lose federal jurisdiction.

Why Trump’s WOTUS pivot could unleash more mining - Mining companies seeking to dump dredge or fill material into nearby streams and waterways or dig up metals in sensitive headwaters will likely face fewer federal Clean Water Act restrictions under a proposal the Trump administration unveiled on Monday. A draft rule from EPA and the Army Corps of Engineers would scale back the number of waterways and wetlands that fall under the federal government’s jurisdiction, in some cases leaving mineral- and coal-rich states — many with weaker protections — in charge. In turn, fewer companies would be required to obtain permits under Sections 402 and 404 of the Clean Water Act before disposing of mining waste and byproducts into those waterways, said Mark Ryan, a former Clean Water Act attorney for EPA Region 10 who previously worked on mining projects. “It’s likely more mines will be freed from 404 permitting requirements,” Ryan said. The proposal marks significant regulatory shift that would likely to be amplified by President Donald Trump’s ongoing efforts to juice domestic mining of everything from copper in Arizona to coal in Appalachia. The administration has opened large swaths of public land to mining, fast-tracked permitting and even taken private equity stakes in companies to boost production. But Ryan emphasized that that the exact impact of the rule will hinge on how federal officials define “waters of the U.S.,” a prospect that remains murky given the language in the draft rule. Trump officials Monday told reporters that the proposal aligns with Sackett v. EPA, a 2023 Supreme Court ruling that asserted that only wetlands that directly touched a relatively permanent waterway — like a river or lake — fell under the scope of the Clean Water Act. But the agencies also added more restrictive language. Under the proposal, which is open to public comment for 45 days, wetlands must contain a “surface water” at least for the duration of the “wet season” to be federally protected. But what constitutes a “wet” season is unclear, and EPA in its proposal states that it intends to base its decision off metrics from the web-based water-budget interactive modeling program, or WebWIMP. “Farmer Joe is not going to have access to that model,” said Ryan. “EPA claims the rule is going to be easy to understand, but … they’re going to use a sophisticated model to figure out what a wet season is that that seems really at odds.” EPA Administrator Lee Zeldin on Monday acknowledged fewer waters will be regulated by the federal government. Just 19 percent of the wetlands in the contiguous U.S. that have been mapped by the federal government would fall under federal protection, according to a regulatory impact analysis. Yet Zeldin insisted the that those waters would still have oversight, and that the rule responded to landowners, farmers and ranchers across the country and aligns with the nation’s highest court.

Supreme Court seeks Trump admin’s views in Western water fight - --The Supreme Court wants to know where the Trump administration stands in a battle between Colorado and Nebraska over water from a river that flows between the two states. In a long list of orders issued Monday, the justices requested the solicitor general’s views on Nebraska’s plea for help from the high court in a challenge against Colorado for hampering the Cornhusker State’s effort to build a cross-border canal along the South Platte River. Nebraska sued Colorado in July, arguing that its neighbor is in violation of a 1923 compact that allows Nebraska to take nearly 65 million gallons of water per day during the irrigation season between April and mid-October, and larger volumes during the rest of the year. In its motion to the Supreme Court, Nebraska contends that Colorado, where about 70 percent of the state’s population lives in the South Platte River Basin, is overusing the waterway. Nebraska also claims its neighbor has frustrated its plans to claim Colorado lands to build a canal that would protect Nebraska’s share of the river’s flows.

Natural Resources sets NEPA overhaul markup - The House Natural Resources Committee plans to vote later this week on legislation to revamp the National Environmental Policy Act. A markup of several bills will feature H.R. 4776, the “Standardizing Permitting and Expediting Economic Development (SPEED) Act,” which would narrow the scope of environmental scrutiny of projects and limit litigation. Westerman said Monday evening that the committee was working on updated text that may encourage more Democrats to support the legislation. Many were skeptical during a hearing in September. “We’re still working through some issues. We’ll probably have a manager’s amendment if we can get agreement on those issues,” Westerman said. “We’re working with the administration. I think we’ve got the bill text in really good shape.”

Greens challenge Interior for bypassing NEPA in offshore lease sales - Green groups are suing the Trump administration for planning an oil lease sale in the Gulf of Mexico without first conducting an environmental review. The lawsuit — filed on Tuesday — asks the U.S. District Court for the District of Columbia to vacate and stop the Dec. 10 lease sale. The challenge comes a week after the Interior Department told POLITICO’s E&E News that it was forgoing environmental reviews under the National Environmental Policy Act for all of the offshore lease sales mandated in the Republican megalaw. “If you’re going to auction off 80 million acres of our public waters to the oil industry, the least you can do is not break the law in a plethora of ways as you do it,” George Torgun, a senior attorney at Earthjustice said in a Tuesday statement. Earthjustice brought the lawsuit on behalf of Friends of the Earth and Healthy Gulf; other plaintiffs include the Center for Biological Diversity, Natural Resources Defense Council and the Sierra Club.The GOP megalaw, which President Donald Trump signed in July, directs Interior’s Bureau of Ocean Energy Management to hold 30 oil and gas lease sales over the next 15 years in what Trump has renamed the Gulf of America. The law also mandates six lease auctions in Alaska’s Cook Inlet between now and 2032.

Greens say Congress has put oil and gas leases in jeopardy - Environmental groups told the Bureau of Land Management in a letter this week that Congress’ new interpretation of land-use plans has “raised serious questions” about more than 5,000 oil and gas leases.The Wilderness Society and five other groups said the leases may violate federal management law, and they’ve asked BLM to halt all oil and gas leasing on federal lands while the matter is sorted out.“BLM should pause all further leasing and permitting until it takes affirmative steps to ensure compliance with the law and remedy this grave legal uncertainty,” green leaders said in the letter to the BLM acting Director Bill Groffy.The letter was signed by Alison Flint, senior legal director at The Wilderness Society, as well as officials with the Conservation Lands Foundation, the Western Environmental Law Center, Advocates for the West, Wild Montana and Southern Utah Wilderness Alliance.

Senate upholds Trump administration methane rule - The Senate’s Republicans majority on Wednesday blocked a Democratic challenge to the Trump administration’s move to delay EPA methane rules. The Congressional Review Act resolution, S.J. Res. 76, would have nixed a recent EPA rule that extends the deadline by which states must comply with Biden-era methane emissions limits for oil and gas facilities. The resolution — brought by Sens. Adam Schiff (D-Calif.) and Environment and Public Works ranking member Sheldon Whitehouse (D-R.I.) — failed a procedural vote 46-51. Sen. Susan Collins of Maine was the sole Republican to vote for the measure. Schiff said the vote was intended to put members of Congress on the record about where they stand on reducing methane emissions. The EPA rule he targeted is viewed by some as the first step toward undoing standards established in 2024. “The decision by the EPA to put forward this polluter-friendly rule is perfectly emblematic of the administration’s approach to our environment,” Schiff said ahead of the vote Wednesday. “This isn’t good policymaking. This is extreme ideological obsession with dire consequences for the health and welfare of the American people,” he added. He and Whitehouse both used floor time ahead of the vote to explain how federal money has helped companies fix methane leaks and comply with new limits — which Schiff said means the Trump EPA delay “makes no sense.” Minority Leader Chuck Schumer also took to the Senate floor to speak in favor of the resolution, relating the Trump administration’s posture toward methane to a general rise in electricity bills. “As families are trying to save, Donald Trump is making it easier for gas companies to waste,” Schumer said. Environment and Public Works Chair Shelley Moore Capito (R-W.Va.), meanwhile, depicted the Trump EPA rule as a necessary protection from an “onslaught of regulations” against oil and gas companies that came during the Biden administration. EPA itself has said this rule is merely intended to give states more time to draft plans for compliance with methane standards. “Natural gas is an affordable, reliable and clean source of energy, vital to reducing our emissions. We should be expanding production of this resource, not restricting it. Unfortunately, restriction is the purpose of this CRA,” Capito said. The Congressional Review Act allows lawmakers to kill newly issued rules by simple majority. But with Republican control of both chambers of Congress and the White House, any CRA brought by Democrats is largely symbolic.

EPA falls behind schedule for repealing endangerment finding - EPA said as recently as September that it planned to finalize its repeal of the so-called endangerment finding before 2025 ended. But it looks like the Times Square ball will drop first. Five industry advocates and former EPA officials who say they’ve spoken to agency staff in recent months told POLITICO’s E&E News that they now expect the rule to make an appearance in early 2026 — likely January. They were granted anonymity to discuss interactions with EPA staff. The rule is a crucial part of the Trump administration’s deregulatory push. It would remove EPA’s 2009 finding that climate pollution threatens public health and welfare — which serves as the scientific foundation for most Clean Air Act climate rules. The final package would also rescind Biden-era emissions rules for motor vehicles. The reason for the delay is unclear. While EPA rulemaking staff were not furloughed during the recent government shutdown, which ended last week after 43 days, work stoppages at the White House or elsewhere in the administration might have contributed to the delays. Substantial staff departures throughout the year might also have been a factor. EPA has also just completed a structural overhaul. “I think all of that is hard to disentangle from one another,” said one lobbyist who recently spoke with EPA officials. EPA also received more than half-a-million public comments on its draft before a Sept. 22 deadline — with only 26,500 of those comments uploaded to the rule’s docket as of Wednesday. EPA must substantively respond to those comments as part of its final rulemaking, or risk handing challengers an opening to argue that the decision to repeal the finding and vehicle standards was predetermined. “What the litigants will be looking for when the comments come out is whether or not the agency addressed each and every comment that was raised, particularly the ones that may be central to litigation,” said Joe Goffman, EPA’s air chief in the Biden administration. “And whether they addressed those comments with something more than hand waves.” If EPA is seen to have cut procedural corners and prejudged the outcome of the rulemaking, that could introduce a “vulnerability that’s out of the ordinary,” said Goffman, who said he was hearing a January release was likely. A January release date would still be a historically fast pace for such important rulemakings. EPA typically takes at least a year between a proposed and final rule — in large part because of the need to respond to so many public comments. But the Trump administration has pledged to complete its deregulatory agenda at a breakneck pace to ensure it can defend its policies all the way up to the Supreme Court.

Senate panel plans review of ‘forever chemicals’ cleanups - The Senate Environment and Public Works Committee is set to examine “forever chemicals” cleanup and disposal policies, as pressure mounts on Congress to reach consensus on solutions to thorny liability questions. It’s the first congressional hearing focused on PFAS cleanups since the Trump administration revealed it would keep a Biden-era rule that designated two of the chemical family’s most notorious compounds — PFOA and PFOS — as hazardous under the federal Superfund law. That designation gives EPA the authority to make polluters pay the costs to remediate contaminated sites — a principle with overwhelming bipartisan support but is complicated in practice. EPA has signaled it intends to only go after PFAS manufacturers. However, local governments, water utilities, farmers, landfill operators and other entities that don’t create the chemicals but must deal with the contamination — known as “passive receivers” — could still get dragged into years of expensive legal battles by polluting companies looking to share the blame.

Sunrise slams Dem leaders, announces primary picks - The Sunrise Movement is fed up with congressional Democratic leadership and wants to usher in a new wave of lawmakers. The youth-centered climate activist group last week announced plans to launch one of “the most ambitious primary programs in its history” heading into the 2026 midterm elections. On Monday, Sunrise announced the first two of its picks for Democratic congressional primaries. “For far too long, Democratic leadership has failed to meet the moment; it’s time to clear house,” said Aru Shiney-Ajay, Sunrise’s executive director in a statement. But Shiney-Ajay added that she’s “extremely excited about the crop of candidates running in 2026.” This election cycle offers an “unprecedented opportunity to elect a new generation of leaders who are challenging our broken political system and fighting for a livable and affordable country,” she said.

Green group enlists GOP insiders to lobby - The Nature Conservancy has enlisted a former Trump White House official and three former House Republican leadership aides to lobby for its conservation agenda. Republicans Alexander Angelson, Brittan Specht, Jason Yaworske and Preston Hill have registered to lobby for the conservation group, their firm Michael Best Strategies disclosed in a lobbying registration filed this month. The move suggests the environmental organization is eyeing inroads with the Republicans who control both chambers of Congress and the White House. It comes after the Trump team has spent its first 10 months in office dismantling many of the environmental and conservation policies enacted during the Biden administration, forcing green groups to recalibrate their strategies.

Think tank flips the script on Trump EPA’s economic analyses - The Trump administration’s regulatory rollbacks could cost the U.S. $153 billion and nearly 3,300 lives annually, according to calculations by a think tank at the New York University School of Law. The Institute for Policy Integrity launched a tracker last week that tallied the environmental, health and economic costs that EPA, the Department of Energy and others left out of analyses for their recent deregulatory moves.Bottom line, it says: The cost of deregulation exceeds the benefits.“This is showing what’s at stake for the lives of the American people with all of these rollbacks,” said Jason Schwartz, the institute’s legal director. “The Trump administration is claiming that they’re doing this to help save costs for the American family, but they’re really only focused on the cost savings to the regulated entities.”

Donald Trump says he'd sign bill releasing Epstein files: 'It's really a Democrat problem' -- President Trump said Monday he would sign legislation into law releasing files linked to convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein, noting the fallout over the files is a “Democrat problem.” “Sure I would,” Trump told reporters when asked if he would sign the legislation. “Let the Senate look at it. Let anybody look at it.” “It’s really a Democrat problem,” he continued. “The Democrats were Epstein’s friends, all of them. And it’s a hoax, the whole thing is a hoax.” “I don’t want to take it away from, really the greatness of what the Republican Party has accomplished over the last period of time,” he said. On Sunday, Trump shocked Washington when he called on House Republicans to release the Epstein files, marking a significant reversal. “As I said on Friday night aboard Air Force One to the Fake News Media, House Republicans should vote to release the Epstein files, because we have nothing to hide, and it’s time to move on from this Democrat Hoax perpetrated by Radical Left Lunatics in order to deflect from the Great Success of the Republican Party, including our recent Victory on the Democrat ‘Shutdown,’” Trump wrote on Truth Social. The announcement came amid signs that a vote this week on a measure forced by a discharge petition might have won dozens of Republican votes over the president’s opposition. GOP Reps. Thomas Massie (Kentucky) and Marjorie Taylor Greene (Georgia), along with Democratic Rep. Ro Khanna (California), will host Epstein survivors on Tuesday at the Capitol ahead of the House vote. Massie, responding to Trump, said he was “looking forward to attending this bill signing.” Trump has been angered by Massie’s support of the legislation, and has frequently lashed out at the Kentucky Republican.

Democrats predict Jeffrey Epstein controversy will hit Donald Trump supporters hard - Democrats say the Jeffrey Epstein files are capturing the President Trump they have tried to portray for years, predicting the controversy will paint the darkest image of Trump to date. They have dug into the issue and see it as a crisis for Trump because it cuts a wedge between the president and his core supporters. “The Epstein files have become more of a symbol that is starting to crack the image Trump supporters had, that he was on their side,” Democratic strategist Eddie Vale said. And the timing couldn’t be worse for Trump, who is facing low approval numbers as consumers gripe about affordability and inflation. “These show him siding with the literal pedophile and the elites, and it’s happening at the same time that he’s giving bailouts to Argentina and throwing parties for kings and foreign leaders while people can’t pay the grocery bills,” Vale added. The sentiment comes as the House prepares to vote on a measure Tuesday that would require the Justice Department to release troves of files it has collected in its investigation of Epstein, a convicted sex offender. On Sunday evening, after weeks of resistance to the movement on Capitol Hill to back the legislation, Trump reversed course and encouraged Republican lawmakers to vote to release the Epstein documents “because we have nothing to hide.” “Nobody cared about Jeffrey Epstein when he was alive, and, if the Democrats had anything, they would have released it,” Trump wrote on Truth Social on Sunday. In the post, Trump said it was “time to move on from this Democrat Hoax perpetrated by Radical Left Lunatics in order to deflect from the Great Success of the Republican Party.” But Democrats say even if the files show Trump wasn’t directly culpable, they make the point Democrats have been trying to make about Trump since he began to run for president a decade ago. “The reason why this is such a crisis for Trump to me is that this is a story about abuse of power and a world that is inaccessible to so many Americans,” Democratic strategist Joel Payne said. “At a minimum it seems like Donald Trump was aware that Jeffrey Epstein’s behavior was not on the up and up and it gets at an authenticity thing for Trump and looking out for the rich and powerful.”

Larry Summers stepping back from ‘public commitments’ after Epstein emails --Former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers said Monday he “will be stepping back from public commitments” amid revelations he communicated frequently with convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein. “I am deeply ashamed of my actions and recognize the pain they have caused. I take full responsibility for my misguided decision to continue communicating with Mr. Epstein,” Summers said in a statement obtained by NewsNation, The Hill’s sister company. Summers, who served as Treasury Secretary under former President Clinton and as National Economic Council director under former President Obama, corresponded with Epstein numerous times throughout the 2010s, according to emails released by the House Oversight Committee last week. The communications occurred after Epstein pleaded guilty in 2008 to one count each of soliciting minors for prostitution and soliciting a prostitute. He served 13 months in prison. Summers, a former president of Harvard University who still teaches courses at the school, added that he will continue “to fulfill my teaching obligations,” but “will be stepping back from public commitments as one part of my broader effort to rebuild trust and repair relationships with the people closest to me.” Summers, the school’s president from 2001 to 2006, is now the Charles W. Eliot University Professor, Harvard’s highest faculty distinction. He also heads the Mossavar-Rahmani Center for Business and Government at the university’s Kennedy School. Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.), a longtime critic of Summers, called on Harvard to cut ties with Summers on Monday.“For decades, Larry Summers has demonstrated his attraction to serving the wealthy and well-connected, but his willingness to cozy up to a convicted sex offender demonstrates monumentally bad judgment,” Warren told CNN. . The Center for American Progress, where Summers was a distinguished senior fellow, said on its website Monday that he is “no longer with” the think-tank. He is also a paid columnist for Bloomberg News and serves on the board of directors for OpenAI. The Hill has reached out to both companies for comment on whether Summers is still employed at either. The emails released last week show that Summers maintained ties to Epstein, reaching out to the disgraced financier on various topics, including global affairs and an apparent relationship with a woman. Summers has been married since 2005.In October 2017, for instance, Summers told Epstein that he “observed that half the IQ In world was possessed by women” during a visit to Saudi Arabia. Summers added, though, that he did not tell the Saudis that it was due to women accounting for more than 51 percent of the world’s population.He said in the same email that he is “trying to figure why American elite think if u murder your baby by beating and abandonment it must be irrelevant to your admission to Harvard, but hit on a few women 10 years ago and can’t work at a network or think tank. DO NOT REPEAT THIS INSIGHT.” Epstein donated more than $9 million to Harvard from 1998 to 2008, prior to his conviction. Some of the donations occurred after his 2006 arrest in Florida on charges of soliciting a prostitute.

Republican senators warn Bondi not to slow-walk release of Epstein files -- Republican senators are warning Attorney General Pam Bondi not to slow-walk the public release of records and documents related to the convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein following votes by the House and Senate demanding the documents. The calls come amid speculation that the Justice Department may cite ongoing investigations or other reasons to hold back material. Bondi said Wednesday that “new information” obtained by investigators had spurred the Justice Department to reverse its earlier decision to close investigations related to Epstein. Democrats are warning that new investigations into high-profile associates of Epstein, such as former President Clinton and former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers, could be cited as justification to withhold documents or videos of Epstein’s mansion in Manhattan. Some Republican lawmakers are warning the Trump administration that keeping back records, including possible footage of people who visited Epstein’s properties, would be a big mistake. Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska) warned that “people who feel very strongly about this will feel like they’ve been duped” if the Justice Department claims “we can’t release anything because we have an active investigation.” “I don’t think that that will help calm the suspicions many have harbored for a long while on this,” she said. She cited the 427-1 vote in the House and the unanimous consent of all 100 senators to pass the Epstein Files Transparency Act on Tuesday as a show of overwhelming support to release all of the unclassified Epstein files immediately. “I think it’s not only congressional intent, it’s overwhelming,” Murkowski said. “When was the last time you saw a vote like that in the House?” Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) warned that delaying the release of Epstein-related documents would trigger an angry backlash, though he acknowledged the Justice Department may have to take steps to ensure that investigations are not hindered. “You can adjust for whatever investigations are going on, but if you do a blanket hold, I think that they’re going to have a lot of people angry,” he said. Tillis, a member of the Judiciary Committee, which has jurisdiction over the Justice Department, pointed to the unanimous vote in the Senate for the Epstein disclosure bill — and only one dissenting vote in the House against it — as a sign of the strong public interest in shedding more light on who else participated in Epstein’s sex-trafficking activities. “I think they would do well to figure how to release as much as possible and then have a very well-articulated reason for that which they can’t,” he said. “It would add fuel to the fire if they don’t produce something meaningful,” Tillis warned.

A small group of MAGA women in Congress is defying Trump, GOP leadership- A small group of women known as some of the fiercest MAGA stalwarts in the House have led the way in pushing back against President Trump and Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) on some of the most high-profile issues of recent months — many involving the victimization of women. This group of lawmakers have been on an island apart from their colleagues as they’ve called for the Department of Justice to release files related to late convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein and supported a resolution to censure a fellow Republican accused of sexual misconduct. “I think we ran out of patience a long time ago, and we’re honey badgers, and so I hope that…there will be more of us that will speak out. I’m very grateful for both Marjorie Taylor Greene and Lauren Boebert for being strong,” Rep. Nancy Mace (R-S.C.) told The Hill. Reps. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.), Lauren Boebert (R-Colo.) and Mace have been some of Trump’s most loyal backers since they arrived on Capitol Hill, even as he unleashed gendered insults against his political opponents and female journalists. But they stood firm against Trump’s 11th-hour campaign for Mace and Boebert to take their names off an effort to force action on a bill to release the Epstein files. They scored a victory this week when Trump signed a bill into law.. “This is a huge day for the Epstein survivors and really, survivors everywhere across the country. This is, I believe, a symbolic vote for all of us — I’m a survivor as well,” Mace said in a Newsmax interview on Tuesday. And it was Greene, Boebert and Mace, along with Reps. Anna Paulina Luna (R-Fla.) and Kat Cammack (R-Fla.), who were instrumental in pushing an effort to censure Mills, who was served with a restraining order after his ex-girlfriend accused him of threatening to release intimate photos of her after their breakup — an allegation he denies. They had fumed on Tuesday about previous attempts to censure Mills failing and accused GOP leadership of cutting deals with Democrats to protect wrongdoers. Luna on Tuesday raised a parliamentary inquiry on the matter. “I was wondering if the Speaker of the House of Representatives can explain why leadership on both sides, both Democrat and Republican, are cutting back-end deals to cover up public corruption in the House of Representatives from both Republican and Democrat members of Congress,” Luna asked on the House floor, to which Boebert cheered and yelled, “Get it, girl!” Mace introduced the censure resolution on Wednesday and forced a vote on it. “This isn’t about partisan politics, it’s about protecting the integrity of this institution and the safety of women,” Mace said in a statement. The chamber voted 310-103-12 to refer the resolution to the Ethics Committee, essentially scuttling it. Asked about the vote Thursday morning, Cammack told Fox35 in Orlando that, “Wrong is wrong. And principles are not partisan.” Referencing the allegations against Mills, she added, “This is a real reality for countless women around the country. And I would not be doing my job in fighting for my constituents if I did not stand by her because I am her voice.” Asked about so many Republican women standing up to reprimand him, Mills suggested it was a political move. “Well, I think that if you look at Nancy Mace’s race for governor, that’ll tell you exactly what that motivation is,” Mills said. Mace has made her personal stories of sexual assault and dating violence central to her political identity. As a state lawmaker, she gained notoriety for speaking out in favor of abortion ban exceptions for rape victims. And in Congress, she gave a stunning floor speech making accusations of sexual assault and voyerism against her ex-fiance and three other South Carolina men. Boebert and Luna sat behind her during the speech in a show of support, along with a handful of other lawmakers. Greene, meanwhile, has been at odds with GOP leadership for months over a wide swath of issues. And she has been perhaps the most outspoken Republican, other than Rep. Thomas Massie (R-Ky.), on the issue of the Epstein files, standing with survivors of Epstein during multiple press conferences in front of the Capitol.

Lauren Boebert yells at House Republicans after censure of Stacey Plaskett fails --Rep. Lauren Boebert (R-Colo.) yelled and wagged her finger at her Republican colleagues on the House floor Tuesday night after the chamber rejected a resolution to censure Del. Stacey Plaskett (D-Virgin Islands) with the help of a handful of Republicans. The GOP failure to censure Plaskett, in turn, led to Democrats declining to pursue a censure of Rep. Cory Mills (R-Fla.). The resolution to censure Plaskett and remove her from the House Intelligence Committee over recently released documents that show she consulted with Jeffrey Epstein during a 2019 hearing failed in a 209-214-3 vote. Three Republicans — Reps. Don Bacon (Neb.), Lance Gooden (Texas) and Dave Joyce (Ohio) — voted “no,” along with all Democrats. Three other Republicans voted present: Rep. Andrew Garbarino (R-N.Y.), Rep. Dan Meuser (R-Pa.), and Rep. Jay Obernolte (R-Calif.). Boebert is a member of the House Freedom Caucus, which pushed the Plaskett resolution. Boebert’s exact words were not clearly audible from the House press gallery or on recordings after the vote failed, but she loudly yelled and wagged her finger at other Republicans. At one point, Boebert went up to Mills, and pointed at him with a raised voice, too. Had the Plaskett censure resolution succeeded, Democrats were poised to call up a resolution to censure Mills. Last month, a Florida county judge granted a restraining order against Mills requested by an ex-girlfriend who accused him of harassing and threatening to release intimate photos of her after their breakup earlier this year. Mills denied some of her accusations. But just as when other censure pushes against Democrats failed, Democrats declined to pursue the censure against Mills on Tuesday. Rep. Anna Paulina Luna (R-Fla.) raised a parliamentary inquiry to express her displeasure with the situation. “I was wondering if the Speaker of the House of Representatives can explain why leadership on both sides, both Democrat and Republican, are cutting back-end deals to cover up public corruption in the House of Representatives for both Republican and Democrat members of Congress,” Luna said. Boebert cheered in approval and yelled: “Get it, girl.” The chair said Luna had not stated a proper parliamentary inquiry. “Thank you very much, but I think the American people know what happened tonight,” Luna said.

Fight erupts on Senate floor over provision letting senators reap millions from suing DOJ Democratic senators clashed with Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) on the Senate floor Thursday when the GOP leader proposed a resolution to clarify that any damages won by Republican senators from lawsuits against the Department of Justice (DOJ) would go to the U.S. Treasury and not to the senators’ bank accounts. Responding to complaints that empowering Republican senators to sue the Justice Department for millions of dollars is inappropriate or unseemly, Thune on Thursday proposed a compromise. He suggested that colleagues approve a resolution by unanimous consent to clarify that any financial compensation awarded to senators would go to the U.S. Treasury, so that lawmakers would not be seen as enriching themselves. “This would clarify that any damages awarded under this law would be forfeited to the United States Treasury. So, no United States senator could benefit,” Thune, who this week has steadfastly defended the provision that’s divided lawmakers, said. Democrats immediately shot down the proposal, declaring it didn’t go far enough to address the appearance that the recently passed law had created a major conflict of interest. Sen. Martin Heinrich (D-N.M.) said he wanted to make a “statutory change” to ensure that senators would not benefit financially and argued that the Senate should work with the House to address the “outrageous damage provisions.” He then objected to Thune’s proposal. A provision tucked into the government funding bill passed last week empowers GOP senators surveilled by the Biden-era Justice Department to sue the federal government for hundreds of thousands or even millions of dollars in damages. It is retroactive to 2022, meaning it applies to senators whose phone records were sought by former special counsel Jack Smith. Tensions flared on the Senate floor Thursday after Heinrich attempted to secure unanimous consent to repeal the provision altogether. The House voted 426-0 on Thursday to eliminate that special authority. “This provision allows eight Republican senators to collect millions of dollars from the U.S. government,” Heinrich fumed on the Senate floor, calling it a “blatant tax-funded cash grab.” The provision would allow a senator to sue the government for $500,000 per instance of obtaining information from their phones. “That money would be paid from your hard-earned tax dollars. And that’s even though the law was followed by the government at the time. Frankly, this is just outrageous to me,” Heinrich said. Sen. Lindsey Graham (S.C.), one of the GOP senators whose phone records were targeted, then took to the floor to object to Heinrich’s request. “What did I do wrong? What did I do to allow the government to seize my personal phone and my official phone when I was Senate Judiciary chairman? What did I do?” Graham asked on the floor. “I’m going to sue Biden’s DOJ and Jack Smith, I’m going to sue Verizon,” Graham declared. Graham noted that he would be eligible to reap $500,000 in financial compensation for damages per instance of the government surveilling his private and official devices, which could amount to a cash windfall. “It’s going to be a hell of a lot more than $500,000. This is twice it happened to me. I was hauled into court in Atlanta for no good reason, and the crime is being friends of Trump, being supporters of Trump,” Graham said, venting his frustration with the Justice Department and Fulton County, Ga., District Attorney Fani Willis, who investigated Graham’s activities in the days and weeks after the November 2020 election. Democratic Sen. Gary Peters (Mich.) took to the floor after Graham spoke to accuse Republican colleagues of trying to line their own pockets. “They snuck in, in the dark of night, a provision at the last minute that would allow them to basically line their pockets,” Peters said. “This is to seek at least a half a million dollars, it could go into the millions of dollars,” the Michigan Democrat predicted, asserting it would benefit “a very select group of Republican senators.”

Judge orders DOJ to turn over grand jury materials to James Comey, cites 'disturbing pattern' A federal magistrate judge has ordered the Justice Department to turn over grand jury materials to former FBI Director James Comey as he fights criminal charges, pointing to possible government misconduct as reason to grant the unusual relief. Judge William Fitzpatrick referenced several apparent missteps by Lindsey Halligan, the interim U.S. attorney hand-picked by President Trump to pursue charges against his foe, that may have threatened the proceeding’s fairness. He said that Comey’s right to due process outweighs the typical secrecy afforded to grand jury proceedings, directing prosecutors to hand over the materials by the end of Monday. “The Court recognizes that the relief sought by the defense is rarely granted,” Fitzpatrick said. “However, the record points to a disturbing pattern of profound investigative missteps, missteps that led an FBI agent and a prosecutor to potentially undermine the integrity of the grand jury proceeding.” Comey faces false statements and obstruction charges stemming from 2020 testimony he gave to Congress about leaks at the FBI. He has pleaded not guilty, and a trial is set for Jan. 5. Though Fitzpatrick did not name Halligan, a different federal judge confirmed at a hearing last week that Halligan was the only prosecutor to present evidence against Comey to the grand jury. Fitzpatrick also said that just one prosecutor was present. The judge wrote that “the prosecutor” made at least two statements to grand jurors that seemed to be “fundamental misstatements of the law.” The remarks themselves were redacted in the court filing. But Fitzpatrick said they came in response to grand jurors’ questions and were directly related to communications involving Comey. One of the remarks, the judge said, implied that Comey does not have a Fifth Amendment right to decline to testify at trial, which may have led grand jurors to believe that it is Comey’s burden, not the government’s, to prove guilt beyond a reasonable doubt. That statement was made in response to “challenging questions” from grand jurors, Fitzpatrick continued, suggesting grand jurors may have believed that even if Halligan could not answer their questions, Comey would later have to. The other remark “clearly suggested” to grand jurors that they did not have to rely on the record before them and could be assured that the government had more, and possibly better, evidence that would be presented at trial, the judge said. Fitzpatrick also raised concern about the actual indictment returned. Halligan initially sought to charge Comey with three counts, but a grand jury rejected one of those charges. The top prosecutor prepared a second indictment, removing that count, which was accepted by a magistrate judge. But Fitzpatrick said the record seems to indicate that the grand jury did not review the actual indictment that was ultimately returned, throwing the case into “uncharted legal territory.” He pointed to a declaration Halligan signed addressing missing minutes in the grand jury transcript as proof of the catch-22. “If the prosecutor is mistaken about the time she received notification of the grand jury’s vote on the original indictment, and this procedure did take place, then the transcript and audio recording provided to the Court are incomplete,” the judge wrote. “If this procedure did not take place, then the Court is in uncharted legal territory in that the indictment returned in open court was not the same charging document presented to and deliberated upon by the grand jury,” he said. Either way, the confusion is reason enough to allow Comey access to the materials, Fitzpatrick determined. And an FBI agent’s testimony could also be cause for alarm, the judge said. U.S. District Judge Michael Nachmanoff, the judge assigned to oversee the case, agreed to pause Fitzpatrick’s order until the government has the chance to object. However, he gave prosecutors a shorter timeline to do so than requested. The government must file any objections by the end of business hours Wednesday, and the defense must respond by the end of Friday. The stay will be lifted once Nachmanoff weighs in on any objections. Comey’s charges center around a brief exchange in his 2020 testimony with Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas), where the former FBI director seemed to affirm 2017 testimony that he never authorized anyone to be an anonymous source in news reports. But prosecutors claim Comey lied and had encouraged Columbia University law professor Daniel Richman, a friend and, at one point, his attorney, to talk to reporters about FBI matters. Fitzpatrick wrote that the FBI seemed to have taken a “cavalier attitude” toward protecting privileged information between Richman and Comey when it initially seized materials in 2019 and 2020. However, “inexplicably,” it did not seek a new search warrant this year, he said. An agent was “specifically instructed” to seize conversations between Richman and Comey, and there appeared to be “no precautions” put in place to avoid collecting privileged communications. That agent was the sole witness to testify before the grand jury. “The government’s decision to allow an agent who was exposed to potentially privileged information to testify before a grand jury is highly irregular and a radical departure from past DOJ practice,” Fitzpatrick wrote.

Trump DOJ’s James Comey case faces widening judicial backlash -- The Justice Department’s prosecution of former FBI Director James Comey is facing death by a thousand procedural errors. Federal judges overseeing the criminal case have increasingly raised concerns about the department’s efforts to investigate and indict the adversary of President Trump, from the evidence presented to grand jurors to the prosecutor who made the government’s case. Any one of the issues could do away with Comey’s charges before he’s ever put on trial. “This is what happens when you try to make a silk purse out of a sow’s ear,” said Barbara McQuade, a former U.S. attorney. In recent days, two judges signaled warning signs for the Justice Department’s case as Comey’s attorneys pursued various avenues of his defense against false statements and obstruction charges stemming from 2020 testimony he gave to Congress. On Monday, a magistrate judge granted Comey’s bid for access to typically secret grand jury material after reviewing the details himself. Judge William Fitzpatrick noted that such relief is “rarely granted.” But the record, he said, showed a “disturbing pattern of profound investigative missteps.” “Missteps that led an FBI agent and a prosecutor to potentially undermine the integrity of the grand jury proceeding,” the judge said. In a scathing 24-page order, Fitzpatrick listed 11 findings of possible misconduct that he said established a “reasonable basis” for Comey and his lawyers to challenge the prosecution. His determinations spanned the government’s “cavalier attitude” toward Comey’s constitutional rights to the conduct of Lindsey Halligan, the interim U.S. attorney Trump handpicked to indict his adversary. U.S. District Judge Michael Nachmanoff, the judge assigned to oversee the case, agreed to pause Fitzpatrick’s order until the government has the chance to object. However, he gave prosecutors a shorter timeline to do so than requested. The government must file any objections by the end of business hours Wednesday, and the defense must respond by the end of Friday. The stay will be lifted once Nachmanoff weighs in on any objections. Fitzpatrick said the FBI “inexplicably” did not seek a new search warrant to probe conversations between Comey and Columbia University law professor Daniel Richman, a friend of the former director and, at one point, Comey’s attorney. Comey’s charges center on a brief exchange in his 2020 testimony with Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas), where Comey said he never authorized anyone to be an anonymous source in news reports. But prosecutors allege he gave such instructions to Richman. Despite their attorney-client relationship at the time, an FBI agent was “specifically instructed” to seize conversations between the pair without precautions to avoid collecting privileged communications, Fitzpatrick revealed. That agent was the sole witness to testify before the grand jury. The judge also asserted that Halligan made at least two “fundamental misstatements of the law” to grand jurors, each in response to their questions and directly related to communications involving Comey. One remark implied that Comey does not have a Fifth Amendment right to decline to testify at trial, and the other “clearly suggested” to grand jurors that they did not have to rely on the record before them, such that prosecutors may have better evidence to present at trial, the judge said. The actual remarks were redacted. “Those aren’t small misstatements,” said Jessica Levinson, a law professor at Loyola Marymount University. “If they’re true, those are misstatements that could mean that people who are not predisposed to vote for an indictment would [be predisposed].” A grand jury transcript discrepancy further seemed to indicate that the panel did not review the actual indictment that was ultimately returned, throwing the case into “uncharted legal territory,” the judge said. “This case was mishandled from the start,” McQuade said.

DOJ probes mortgage fraud investigation into Adam Schiff -- The Department of Justice (DOJ) has taken the unusual step of launching a probe into one of its own investigations, assembling a federal grand jury in Maryland to review the mortgage fraud allegations made against Sen. Adam Schiff (D-Calif.).The probe raises questions for two top allies of President Trump: Ed Martin, who has been tapped as a special attorney for mortgage fraud, and Bill Pulte, who leads the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA).Christine Bish, who is running for Congress in California and who previously claimed to have whistleblower information about Schiff’s mortgage, was called to appear before the grand jury Thursday. But rather than ask questions about possible mortgage fraud, it appears investigators were primarily interested in whom she spoke to about the claims.A subpoena to Bish reviewed by The Hill asked whether she dealt with anyone “claiming to be working for or at the direction” of the Justice Department, Martin or Pulte.According to ABC News, prosecutors are evaluating whether Martin may have wrongly deputized two figures outside the Justice Department to aid in the investigation of Schiff.The subpoena reviewed by The Hill references Robert Bowes, who on social platform X states he deals with “Mortgage & Election Fraud” at the Office of Personnel Management. Bowes was an official at the Department of Housing and Urban Development during the first Trump administration and wrote the Project 2025 section on the Consumer Finance Protection Bureau. The subpoena also asks about Scott Strauss and “anyone claiming to be acting at the direction or request of Edward Martin.” Schiff has yet to be charged and has denied wrongdoing since July, when Trump accused him of lying in mortgage documents.“So the president today is accusing me of fraud. And the basis of his accusation is that I own a home in Maryland, and I own my home in California. Big surprise — members of Congress, almost all of them, own more than one home or rent more than one home because we’re required to be on both coasts. So he is using my ownership of two homes to make a false claim of mortgage fraud,” Schiff said in a video when Trump first raised the charge. The Justice Department declined to comment, while the FHFA and a spokesperson for Martin did not respond to requests for comment.

US congresswoman charged with stealing $5m in federal disaster funds - A Florida congresswoman has been charged with stealing $5m (£3.8m) in federal disaster funds. Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick is accused of laundering some of the Federal Emergency Management Agency (Fema) money into her 2021 election campaign. The 46-year-old Democrat is under investigation by the House of Representatives Ethics Committee and could be expelled from the chamber. Attorney General Pam Bondi called it a "particularly selfish, cynical crime". In a statement, Ms Chefilus-McCormick - who was elected to Congress in 2022 - maintained she was innocent and vowed to clear her name. She faces up to 53 years in prison if convicted. The fraud was allegedly carried out through a healthcare company operated by the congresswoman and her brother, Edwin Chefilus, 51, now co-accused. Ms Chefilus-McCormick was chief executive of the family firm, Trinity Healthcare Services, at the time. The company had won a Fema contract to register people for Covid vaccines, but in July 2021 it received an overpayment of $5m in federal funds, according to the justice department. The siblings allegedly tried to disguise the money's source by routing it through several accounts and eventually used "a substantial portion" on her congressional campaign. Ms Cherfilus-McCormick and another person named in the indictment allegedly diverted funds from the Fema contract to friends and relatives, who donated the money back to her campaign as personal contributions, prosecutors said. "No-one is above the law, least of all powerful people who rob taxpayers for personal gain," the attorney general said. "We will follow the facts in this case and deliver justice." A federal grand jury in Miami approved the indictment on Wednesday. Ms Cherfilus-McCormick said in a statement: "This is an unjust, baseless, sham indictment - and I am innocent." She added: "I am deeply grateful for the support of my district, and I remain confident that the truth will prevail."

Donald Trump pardons two more Jan. 6 rioters – President Trump over the weekend pardoned two individuals charged in connection with the investigation into the 2021 riots at the U.S. Capitol. The president issued pardons for Suzanne Ellen Kaye, who served an 18-month sentence for threatening to shoot FBI agents amid an investigation into her involvement in the riots, and Daniel Edwin Wilson, who remained imprisoned, despite Trump’s sweeping pardons of Jan. 6 rioters, due to an unlawful firearms possession conviction. Pardon Attorney Ed Martin posted photos of the pardons to the social platform X on Saturday. Martin said that he specifically advocated for Wilson to receive clemency, and that the Justice Department under former President Biden “targeted” Kaye. In 2021, the FBI received a tip regarding Kaye and the Jan. 6 riots, according to court records. Agent Arthur Smith interviewed Kaye, a native of Boca Raton, Fla., over the phone, during which she denied being at the Capitol. Kaye, who went by “Angry Patriot Hippie” online, then posted two videos, one to Facebook and another to Instagram. Both videos were titled “F— the FBI,” and featured Kaye, while drinking alcohol from a bottle, saying she would “shoot your f—ing a– if you come” to her house. She posted the latter video to her TikTok account as well. Kaye was found guilty of threatening to shoot FBI agents in June 2022 and sentenced to 18 months in prison in April 2023. She was released last year. A White House official told NewsNation, The Hill’s sister company, Saturday that Kaye “suffers from stress-induced seizures,” which she experienced while the jury read its verdict.

Trump defense of Tucker Carlson interview with Nick Fuentes sparks chatter in GOP Jewish circles --President Trump’s defense of conservative talk show host Tucker Carlson’s interview with white nationalistNick Fuentes is sparking backlash among Jewish conservatives who backed the president’s pro-Israel policies, creating another rift with a key group of supporters. Trump’s remarks Sunday, in which he said Carlson should be able to interview whom he likes, comes as the conservative movement as a whole finds itself deeply divided over Carlson’s decision to platform Fuentes. A former White House staffer from the first Trump administration told The Hill that a number of Jewish Republicans are puzzled over his response to Carlson’s interview of Fuentes, given the president’s own advocacy and ties to the Jewish community. “It’s confusing,” the former staffer said. “It’s like, we know you don’t feel this way Mr. President. We know you’re incredibly pro-Israel. You have Jewish people in your family, Jewish people on your staff, Jewish allies, pro-Israel allies.” “Why not just come out and say, ‘I don’t like it’?” the former staffer added. The fissures among conservatives on the issue burst into national news after Heritage Foundation President Kevin Roberts forcefully defended Carlson for interviewing Fuentes in a video, saying “canceling” Fuentes “is not the answer.” The video message resulted in backlash, resulting in Roberts apologizing to Heritage staff and a board member resigning this week. When asked about Carlson’s “friendly interview with antisemite Nick Fuentes” and what role Carlson can play in the Republican Party going forward, Trump recalled having “great interviews” with Carlson in the past. “Well, I found him to be good. I mean, he said good things about me over the years. He’s, I think he’s good. We’ve had some good interviews. I did an interview with him, we were at 300 million hits, you know that,” Trump told a group of reporters. “I mean, if he wants to interview Nick Fuentes — I don’t know much about him — but if he wants to do it, get the word out,” he said.

Senate panel advances Trump's CFTC pick for crypto role -- The Senate Agriculture Committee on Thursday voted to advance President Trump’s new pick to lead the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), a low-profile agency that is poised to take on a key role regulating cryptocurrency. The panel voted 12-11 along partisan lines to send Mike Selig’s nomination to the Senate floor, just one day after he appeared before senators for a relatively quiet confirmation hearing. Selig, who currently serves as chief counsel to the Securities and Exchange Commission’s (SEC) crypto task force, was nominated for the new role in October after the White House withdrew its previous candidate. Trump initially tapped Brian Quintenz, global head of policy at a16z crypto and a former CFTC commissioner, to chair the agency in February. Quintenz appeared before the Senate Agriculture Committee in June, and his confirmation appeared to be proceeding apace. However, the panel scrapped a vote on Quintenz’s nomination in late July at the request of the White House, which was reportedly facing pressure from crypto billionaires Cameron and Tyler Winklevoss to reconsider its choice. In early September, Quintenz shot back at the Winklevoss twins publicly, releasing a series of messages between himself and the brothers and suggesting that Trump “might have been misled.” The White House ultimately withdrew his nomination later that month. The drawn-out effort to fill the top role at the CFTC comes as the agency, which is typically led by a five-person commission, is currently operating with only an acting chair after a slew of departures earlier this year. Sign up for the Morning Report The latest in politics and policy. Direct to your inbox. Email address By signing up, I agree to the Terms of Use, have reviewed the Privacy Policy, and to receive personalized offers and communications via email, on-site notifications, and targeted advertising using my email address from The Hill, Nexstar Media Inc., and its affiliates Acting Chair Caroline Pham also intends to leave the agency once her successor is confirmed. The state of the CFTC was a key concern for Democrats at Selig’s confirmation hearing Wednesday, as lawmakers continue to wrestle with legislation that would hand over a large chunk of crypto regulation to the agency. “I believe it’s in the public interest that the CFTC not only have a confirmed chairman, but also a fully functioning commission, and that would include, of course, a Democratic appointee, in fact, two Democratic appointees,” Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-Minn.), the committee’s ranking member, said. “The CFTC has operated much of the past year without a full complement of bipartisan commissioners and has been operating for months with only an acting chairman,” she added. “This uncertainty surrounding the leadership at the CFTC has only created more chaos for people who rely on the CFTC.” Several Senate Democrats pressed the CFTC nominee about whether the agency would need more resources. Sen. Ben Ray Luján (D-N.M.) underscored that the CFTC is poised to take on “an enormous new duty” but remains small compared with the Securities and Exchange Commission, which is also set to oversee crypto markets. Selig deferred making an assessment on the need for more resources, saying he would evaluate the situation once confirmed.

What to know about Trump’s plan to fight state AI laws-- The clash with state legislatures has long been brewing, as statehouses have forged ahead with efforts to rein in risks from the rapidly developing technology while the Trump White House decries excessive regulation that they argue could stifle AI innovation. However, even as the president largely focuses on laws from liberal states, the move is likely to anger both Democrats and Republicans, who previously found common ground in opposing a preemption push by Congress. “I think it’s the Hail Mary phase,” former Rep. Brad Carson (D-Okla.), president of Americans for Responsible Innovation, told The Hill. “The executive order could have been put forward by them six months ago when they were on the case. They chose not to, which suggests to me they know it’s on legally dubious grounds.” “They’ve tried many legislative approaches that have either failed or are having a hard time,” he added. “And so, they might as well just throw another thing at the wall.” Trump is considering an executive order that would direct his administration to sue states and withhold federal funding over AI laws, according to a draft obtained by The Hill. A White House official noted in a statement Wednesday that “discussion about potential executive orders is speculation” until confirmed. Under the order, Attorney General Pam Bondi would create an “AI Litigation Task Force” focused on challenging state AI measures on the grounds of violating the Commerce Clause of the Constitution. It also would task Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick with determining state AI laws that conflict with the administration’s policy and referring them to the task force, as well as issuing policy guidance making states ineligible for certain broadband funding if they are found to have such AI laws. The order separately directs other federal agencies to determine whether their discretionary grant programs could be conditioned on not enacting these laws. The Federal Communications Commission is also meant to consider a federal reporting and disclosure standard for AI models that would preempt state laws. And the Federal Trade Commission would be tasked with issuing a policy statement on how a law prohibiting unfair and deceptive practices applies to AI models and preempts state laws. A section at the end of the order also directs White House AI and crypto czar David Sacks to prepare legislative recommendations for a federal regulatory framework. However, unlike the other sections, it provides no timeline for such efforts.

Cloudflare Blames Database Error For Outage That Took Down 20% Of The Web --Internet services provider Cloudflare says that a fault in its bot detection system triggered an outage that took down around 20% of webpages, including several crypto platforms. Cloudflare said in a post-mortem statement on Tuesday that a “feature file” used by its Bot Management System to fight off cyberattacks grew beyond its normal limit, leading to a failure in Cloudflare’s software.“We are sorry for the impact to our customers and to the Internet in general. Given Cloudflare’s importance in the Internet ecosystem any outage of any of our systems is unacceptable.”The company initially suspected the incident was caused by a hyper-scale Distributed Denial of Service attack, but confirmed there was no cyberattack or malicious activity.Cloudflare handles roughly 20% of internet traffic and powers around one-third of the top 10,000 websites, apps and services. Its outage took out the websites for Coinbase, Blockchain.com, Ledger, BitMEX, Toncoin, Arbiscan, and DefiLlama, as well as X and ChatGPT, leading some crypto commentators to remark on the crypto industry’s reliance on centralized systems, some of which also went offline when Amazon Web Services suffered a network outage last month.

Fed's Cook sees risk in gen AI-manipulated financial trading - Federal Reserve Gov. Lisa Cook warned Thursday that generative artificial intelligence tools have the potential to shape market dynamics.

• Key Insight: Federal Reserve Gov. Lisa Cook says emerging risks are arising over how artificial intelligence may influence financial markets.
• Expert quote: "Recent theoretical studies find that some AI-driven trading algorithms can indeed learn to collude without explicit coordination or intent, potentially impairing competition and market efficiency." — Federal Reserve Gov. Lisa Cook.
• What's at stake: Public officials have spoken at length in recent months about the promises or perils of AI for the economy, but Cook's remarks are among the few to consider AI impacts on market function.

Federal Reserve Gov. Lisa Cook, citing several studies, outlined her concerns Thursday that generative AI could be used to manipulate markets, and regulators have not yet thought through how to police such activity.

Trump Organization merges crypto with real estate in Maldives The Trump Organization said Monday it plans to tokenize the development of a new hotel project in the Maldives, merging the Trump family’s newfound interest in cryptocurrency with its long-standing real estate business. The company, owned by President Trump and led by his two eldest sons, is partnering with Saudi real estate developer Dar Global to build a collection of about 80 beach and overwater villas that will be known as Trump International Hotel Maldives. The Trump Organization intends to tokenize the hotel’s development, allowing investors to buy into the project “from inception,” according to a press release. Tokenization refers to the process of creating a digital representation of real-world assets on the blockchain. “We are delighted to bring the Trump brand to the Maldives in collaboration with Dar Global,” Eric Trump, who serves as executive vice president of the Trump Organization, said in a statement. “This development will not only redefine luxury in the region but also set a new benchmark for innovation in real estate investment through tokenization,” he continued. The new project marks the latest in a series of crypto-related ventures for the Trump family. Trump and his sons launched the crypto firm World Liberty Financial last year, as the then-presidential candidate embraced the industry in the final months of his 2024 campaign. Shortly before taking office, the president and first lady launched meme coins. Trump Media & Technology Group, the parent company of Truth Social, filed for several crypto-related assets earlier this year. And Trump’s two eldest sons, Eric Trump and Donald Trump Jr., helped launch American Bitcoin, a bitcoin mining firm. The president’s personal embrace of crypto has also translated into a much friendlier regulatory environment for the industry in Washington — a shift from the tense relationship between the Biden administration and the digital asset world. President Trump has hosted crypto leaders at the White House and placed crypto-friendly individuals in leadership roles at key agencies, like the Securities and Exchange Commission. He also signed into law the first major crypto legislation, the GENIUS Act, in July. However, the Trump family’s personal involvement has complicated efforts to pass another key crypto bill, as critics raise concerns about potential conflicts of interest.

Stablecoins are going to reduce CRA funding to underserved communities -- If the loophole in the GENIUS Act isn't closed, the flow of money into stablecoins will wind up reducing the Community Reinvestment Act funding that many underserved communities rely on for development, writes Kevin Kimble. I've seen firsthand how policy decisions made in Washington ripple through America's neighborhoods, determining who gets a mortgage, who can start a business, and which communities thrive or struggle. Our financial system should serve everyone — not just the wealthy and well connected. That's why Congress must address a dangerous stablecoin loophole that threatens to undermine decades of progress in financial inclusion. If the loophole in the GENIUS Act isn't closed, the flow of money into stablecoins will wind up reducing the Community Reinvestment Act funding that many underserved communities rely on for development.

Money launderer pleads guilty in $263 million crypto scheme - Kunal Mehta, also known by the alias "Shrek," used shell companies and bulk cash drops to clean millions for a cybercrime ring that stole $263 million.

• Key insight: Kunal Mehta established shell companies and charged a 10% fee to convert stolen cryptocurrency into fiat cash.
• Supporting data: In addition to wire transfers, Mehta provided bulk cash services, once personally delivering a duffel bag containing approximately $500,000 to a co-conspirator.
• Expert quote: "We are committed to rooting out fraud and holding those responsible fully accountable," said U.S. Attorney Jeanine Pirro regarding the plea.
• What's at stake: Mehta faces a maximum penalty of 20 years in prison and significant fines for a conspiracy charge, alongside the forfeiture of assets.

Overview bullets generated by AI with editorial review.

OCC allows banks to hold crypto to cover blockchain fees --The Office of the Comptroller of the Currency issued an interpretive letter Tuesday that would allow banks under its jurisdiction to hold small amounts of network tokens to test and process customer transactions.

• Key insight: Banks can hold and use a blockchain's proprietary tokens to run tests and pay required fees.
• Supporting data: The OCC letter frames this usage as an operational function with mandatory risk testing.
• Forward look: The move opens a path for smoother bank-backed blockchain services.

The Office of the Comptroller of the Currency issued an interpretive letter Tuesday giving banks permission to pay blockchain network fees on behalf of their customers and to hold a small inventory of the networks' primary coin for that purpose.

BankThink: Nonbank financial firms have been running wild. A reckoning is coming -- From private credit to stablecoins, firms with scant oversight have been allowed to gobble up business that formerly went to regulated banks. Until balance is restored, the system is overburdened with risk, writes Gene Ludwig. The chickens are finally coming home to roost, and they're making quite a mess. Since Dodd-Frank, if not earlier, nonbank financial institutions have been free to engage in nearly every kind of financial activity imaginable, typically without the guardrails that govern traditional banks. Unless they were caught outright cheating consumers — and sometimes even then — they've largely escaped serious scrutiny. The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, for its part, spent far too much time fixated on banks and far too little on the fast-growing nonbank sector. The result is a regulatory imbalance that has allowed nonbanks to quietly sweep the money off the Monopoly board and take another lap around "Go." From private credit to stablecoins, firms with scant oversight have been allowed to gobble up business that formerly went to regulated banks. Until balance is restored, the system is overburdened with risk.

Market Intelligence The key difference between a 'tokenized deposit' and a 'deposit token' - Noelle Acheson explains the significant differences between tokenized deposits and deposit tokens, and why it matters for the future of banking and payments. The crypto world has a well-deserved reputation for being loose with vocabulary. To most people, the word "token" traditionally means a small representation of low value (laundromat token, a token of my appreciation), but in the context of crypto, we use it to mean an intangible representation of possibly considerable on-chain value. "Mining" commonly connotes the extraction of geological resources from the earth, but we use it to describe protocol maintenance. Not all blockchains have blocks. .

BNY predicts digital assets will expand quickly - Digital payment and finance options that were recently considered experimental are quickly becoming a must-have for banks, pushing the entire industry to pick up their games incryptocurrency, stablecoins and tokenized deposits. "This is the 'great unlock' that will change the future of finance," Carolyn Weinberg, chief product and innovation officer at BNY, told American Banker. Someday, companies, corporations and financial institutions will be able to make a transaction at any time, anywhere in the world, in real time, according to Weinberg.

• Key insights: BNY and Standard Chartered are both predicting digital assets will play a major role in payments and finance in the short term.
• What's at stake: Banks are trying to compete with fintechs that have dominated the stablecoin market.
• Forward look: BNY says the market for all digital assets will reach $3.6 trillion by 2030.

BNY estimates the market for stablecoins, tokenized deposits and other assets will reach a combined value of $3.6 trillion in four years, while Standard Chartered says the entire banking industry will soon be "tokenized." The trend is creating pressure to update strategies and technology.

Fed memo previews big changes to bank oversight - An October staff memo from the Federal Reserve's Division of Supervision and Regulation outlines changes to how supervisory activities will be carried out, including a greater emphasis on relying on examinations conducted by state banking supervisors…

Fed's Miran: Banks should hold more Treasuries, less reserves - Federal Reserve Gov. Stephen Miran argues that banks holding excess reserves are keeping the central bank's balance sheet bigger than it should be, and suggested that regulatory changes could help bring those reserves down.

Fed traded fast merger for 2023 private equity rescue -- When Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank went belly-up over a three-day span in March 2023, the U.S. government intervened to limit the damage, promising uninsured depositors they'd be made whole, among other actions. The Federal Reserve played a behind-the-scenes role in facilitating the sale of PacWest Bancorp, providing an enticement to private-equity interests to make a deal happen, according to agency records and recent comments by a prominent banking lawyer.

• Key insight: Recent comments by a prominent banking lawyer show that the Federal Reserve sped up the approval of a M&A deal that was unrelated to the 2023 regional banking crisis in an effort to find a private-sector solution as PacWest Bancorp was teetering.
• What's at stake: The new details about what happened behind the scenes in May 2023 could revive the debate about the Fed's appropriate role during a crisis.
• Expert quote: "The Fed as dealmaker is not healthy for the economy. That's not a role the Fed is supposed to have." — J.W. Verrett, George Mason University's Antonin Scalia Law School

Deposit insurance reform momentum slows in House — Lawmakers signaled less enthusiasm to quickly pass a massive hike in deposit insurance for some accounts, slowing progress on a bill that has made strong inroads in the Senate.

• Key insight: Deposit insurance reform might move more slowly in the House than the Senate as members expressed concerns about the overall cost.
• What's at stake: Some community bankers say they will ultimately pay more in assessment fees if a Senate proposal goes through.
• Forward look: The Senate needs the support of House Republicans to pass the law, so it's likely the proposal will be moderated from its current language.

Witnesses and lawmakers at a House Financial Services Committee hearing gave a more downcast view of a Senate deposit insurance reform proposal, with many House committee members expressing cost concerns.

HFSC Chair Hill eyes wider scope in deposit insurance debate — House Financial Services Committee Chairman French Hill, R-Ark., said that his committee is considering a raft of ideas that would change deposit insurance and failing banks.

• Key insight: House Financial Services Committee Chair French Hill, R-Ark., is taking a wider approach to deposit insurance reform, casting doubt on a swift takeup of a bipartisan Senate bill.
• What's at stake: Hill declined to say whether he would take up a so-called "skinny" bill that only raised the deposit insurance limit for non-interest bearing accounts.
• Forward look: Hill also said he's working with the Office of Management and Budget to determine the administration's long-term "roadmap" for the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau.

House Financial Services Committee Chair French Hill, R-Ark., said he wants to consider a range of ideas on how to improve deposit insurance and other issues facing community banks beyond a Senate bill raising insurance for business accounts.

BankThink Proposed FDIC deposit insurance hike rewards risk, not responsibility -- The proposal to push up some federal deposit insurance coverage to $10 million per account would encourage banks to take excessive risks while leaving consumers with the bill, writes Gerard Scimeca. "That makes me smart," said then-candidate Donald Trump to the accusation he hadn't paid federal income taxes in some years. With these now iconic words, spoken on a presidential debate stage as 84 million viewers tuned in, Trump had flipped the script, turning the focus of financial privilege and chicanery from the very wealthy to the government itself. The proposal to push up some federal deposit insurance coverage to $10 million per account would encourage banks to take excessive risks while leaving consumers with the bill.

Treasury's McKernan sees sea change in deposit behavior — Treasury Under Secretary for Domestic Finance Jonathan McKernan said Tuesday that he fears one fundamental building block of the banking system — low-cost deposits — could be under renewed pressure from fintech challengers.

• Key insight: Treasury Under Secretary for Domestic Finance Jonathan McKernan said in an appearance Tuesday that the low-cost, sticky deposit behavior that banking has become accustomed to may face pressure as fintechs gain more market share.
• Expert quote: "We've had banks funded by … deposits, payment related liabilities: low interest, pretty sticky, generally speaking, long duration. Like it or not, technology is going to pressure that dynamic." — Treasury Under Secretary for Domestic Finance Jonathan McKernan
• What's at stake: McKernan said the Treasury Department is working to create a "level playing field" for banks and nonbanks to compete.

McKernan said he is concerned that the traditional bank funding model of taking in low-cost deposits and making more lucrative loans could be set for a shakeup as fintech challengers get more competitive.

Banks plead for federal guidance as penny shortage spreads - Supplies of the one-cent coin are plummeting. Businesses can't give exact change. Banks are struggling to resupply them. And amid it all, the federal government has said almost nothing.

• Key Insight: Banks are struggling to supply retailers with pennies as circulation slows and federal agencies provide no guidance on how to cope.
• Supporting Data: Of the 165 coin distribution terminals used by the Federal Reserve, 102 are neither supplying pennies nor accepting deposits of them.
• Expert Quote: "The problem is just getting worse," said Steve Kenneally, a senior vice president at the American Bankers Association. "Banks can't get [pennies], and that means that they can't supply them to their customers, the retailers, and that puts the retailers in a jam."

Trump taps OMB official as new nominee for CFPB director -- President Trump has nominated Stuart Levenbach, associate director of the Office of Management and Budget, to be the director of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau. His selection allows acting CFPB Director Russell Vought to remain in place for at least another 210 days.

This Was A Major Red Flag In 2008, And Now It Is Happening Again! - The alarms are getting even louder each week. It has become exceedingly clear that the U.S. economy has entered a crisis that is similar to what we experienced in 2008 and 2009, and a lot of people are really starting to freak out. For those that cannot see the stunning parallels between the Great Recession and what we are going through now, I don’t know what to say to them. There are a lot of people out there that simply choose to believe whatever they want to believe no matter what the evidence indicates. In this case, all of the evidence is pointing in a single direction. When foreclosure filings started to spike prior to the global financial crisis in 2008, that was a major red flag.Now it is happening again. In fact, during the month of October 2025 foreclosure filings were 19 percent higher than they were in October 2024… In October alone, there were 36,766 foreclosure filings — the first step in the process, when a lender warns a borrower they’re in default. That’s up three percent from September and 19 percent from a year ago.‘Foreclosure activity continued its steady upward trend in October — the eighth straight month of year-over-year increases,’ said ATTOM CEO Rob Barber. The rise is stirring uncomfortable memories of 2008, when a wave of foreclosures triggered the worst housing crash in modern US history. Read that quote again. Foreclosure activity has increased for eight consecutive months. That is what we call a trend. Some of the markets that were once the hottest are now seeing the highest rates of foreclosure filings… States with the worst foreclosure rates were Florida (one in every 1,829 housing units with a foreclosure filing), South Carolina (one in every 1,982), Illinois (one in every 2,570), Delaware (on in every 2,710), and Nevada (one in ever 2,747).Among metro areas with populations of a million or more, Tampa posted the highest foreclosure rate at one in every 1,373 housing units.Following Tampa were Jacksonville (one in every 1,576 housing units), Orlando (one in every 1,703), Riverside (one in every 1,983), and Cleveland (one in every 2,114). What a mess. The good news is that it looks like there will soon be a lot of homes on the market in Florida.

MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest Weekly Survey -From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey Mortgage applications decreased 5.2 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending November 14, 2025.The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 5.2 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 7 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index decreased 7 percent from the previous week and was 125 percent higher than the same week one year ago. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 2 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 7 percent compared with the previous week and was 26 percent higher than the same week one year ago.“Mortgage rates increased for the third consecutive week, with the 30-year fixed rate inching higher to its highest level in four weeks at 6.37 percent,” . “Application activity over the week was lower, with potential homebuyers moving to the sidelines again, although there was a small increase in FHA purchase applications. Refinance applications decreased as borrowers remain sensitive to even small increases in rates at this level. The overall average loan size across both purchase and refinance applications dipped to its lowest level since August of this year, driven by another drop in the ARM share.”...The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($806,500 or less) increased to 6.37 percent from 6.34 percent, with points remaining unchanged at 0.62 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans..The first graph shows the MBA mortgage purchase index. According to the MBA, purchase activity is up 26% year-over-year unadjusted.

Housing November 17th Weekly Update: Inventory Down 0.3% Week-over-week -Altos reports that active single-family inventory was down 0.3% week-over-week. Inventory usually starts to decline in the fall and then declines sharply during the holiday season. The first graph shows the seasonal pattern for active single-family inventory since 2015.The red line is for 2025. The black line is for 2019. Inventory was up 16.3% compared to the same week in 2024 (last week it was up 16.7%), and down 5.3% compared to the same week in 2019 (last week it was down 5.6%). Inventory started 2025 down 22% compared to 2019. Inventory has closed most of that gap, but it appears inventory will still be below 2019 levels at the end of 2025.This second inventory graph is courtesy of Altos Research. As of November 14th, inventory was at 840 thousand (7-day average), compared to 842 thousand the prior week. Mike Simonsen discusses this data and much more regularly on YouTube.

NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.10 million SAAR in October --From the NAR: NAR Existing-Home Sales Report Shows 1.2% Increase in October - Month-over-month:
• 1.2% increase in existing-home sales – seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.10 million in October
• 0.7% decrease in unsold inventory – 1.52 million units equal to 4.4 months' supply
Year-over-year:
• 1.7% increase in existing-home sales
• 2.1% increase in median existing-home sales price to $415,200
This graph shows existing home sales, on a Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) basis since 1994. ales in October (4.10 million SAAR) were up 1.2% from the previous month and were up 1.7% compared to the October 2024 sales rate. The second graph shows nationwide inventory for existing homes. ccording to the NAR, inventory decreased to 1.52 million in October from 1.53 million the previous month. Headline inventory is not seasonally adjusted, and inventory usually decreases to the seasonal lows in December and January, and peaks in mid-to-late summer.The last graph shows the year-over-year (YoY) change in reported existing home inventory and months-of-supply. Since inventory is not seasonally adjusted, it really helps to look at the YoY change. Note: Months-of-supply is based on the seasonally adjusted sales and not seasonally adjusted inventory. nventory was up 10.9% year-over-year (blue) in October compared to October 2024.Months of supply (red) decreased to 4.4 months in October from 4.5 months the previous month.

Construction Spending Increased 0.2% in August - From the Census Bureau reported that overall construction spending decreased:Construction spending during August 2025 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $2,169.5 billion, 0.2 percent above the revised July estimate of $2,165.0 billion. The August figure is 1.6 percent below the August 2024 estimate of $2,205.3 billion.Private spending increased and public spending was unchanged:Spending on private construction was at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $1,652.1 billion, 0.3 percent above the revised July estimate of $1,647.5 billion. ... In August, the estimated seasonally adjusted annual rate of public construction spending was $517.3 billion, virtually unchanged from the revised July estimate of $517.5 billion.This graph shows private residential and nonresidential construction spending, and public spending, since 1993. Note: nominal dollars, not inflation adjusted.Private residential (red) spending is 6.5% below the peak in 2022.Private non-residential (blue) spending is 6.8% below the peak in December 2023.Public construction spending (orange) is close to the peak.The second graph shows the year-over-year change in construction spending. On a year-over-year basis, private residential construction spending is down 2.0%. Private non-residential spending is down 4.0% year-over-year. Public spending is up 2.7% year-over-year.

Trade Deficit Decreased to $59.6 Billion in August -The Census Bureau and the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported: The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that the goods and services deficit was $59.6 billion in August, down $18.6 billion from $78.2 billion in July, revised.August exports were $280.8 billion, $0.2 billion more than July exports. August imports were $340.4 billion, $18.4 billion less than July imports..Exports increased slightly and imports decreased in August. Exports were up 1.9% year-over-year; imports were down 1.9% year-over-year. Imports increased sharply earlier this year as importers rushed to beat tariffs. The second graph shows the U.S. trade deficit, with and without petroleum.The blue line is the total deficit, and the black line is the petroleum deficit, and the red line is the trade deficit ex-petroleum products. Note that net, exports of petroleum products are positive and have been increasing.The trade deficit with China decreased to $18.9 billion from $27.8 billion a year ago.

LA Ports: Imports and Exports Down YoY in October; Exports Down YoY for 11th Consecutive Month -Container traffic gives us an idea about the volume of goods being exported and imported - and usually some hints about the trade report since LA area ports handle about 40% of the nation's container port traffic.The following graphs are for inbound and outbound traffic at the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach in TEUs (TEUs: 20-foot equivalent units or 20-foot-long cargo container).The first graph is the monthly data (with a strong seasonal pattern for imports). Usually imports peak in the July to October period as retailers import goods for the Christmas holiday and then decline sharply and bottom in the Winter depending on the timing of the Chinese New Year. Imports were down 12.5% YoY in October, and exports were down 5.1% YoY. To remove the strong seasonal component for inbound traffic, the second graph shows the rolling 12-month average.On a rolling 12-month basis, inbound traffic decreased 1.2% in September compared to the rolling 12 months ending the previous month. Outbound traffic decreased 0.5% compared to the rolling 12 months ending the previous month.This is the 11th consecutive month with exports down YoY.

Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Decrease to 220,000 -The DOL reported: In the week ending November 15, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 220,000, a decrease of 8,000 from the previous week's level. The 4-week moving average was 224,250, a decrease of 3,000 from the previous week's average.The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971.The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims decreased to 224,250. The graph includes all the missing weeks while the government was shutdown.

September Employment Report: 119 thousand Jobs, 4.4% Unemployment Rate --From the BLS: Employment Situation: Total nonfarm payroll employment edged up by 119,000 in September but has shown little change since April, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. The unemployment rate, at 4.4 percent, changed little in September. Employment continued to trend up in health care, food services and drinking places, and social assistance. Job losses occurred in transportation and warehousing and in federal government....The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for July was revised down by 7,000, from +79,000 to +72,000, and the change for August was revised down by 26,000, from +22,000 to -4,000. With these revisions,employment in July and August combined is 33,000 lower than previously reported.The first graph shows the jobs added per month since January 2021. Total payrolls increased by 119 thousand in September. Private payrolls increased by 97 thousand, and public payrolls increased 22 thousand (Federal payrolls decreased 35 thousand).Payrolls for July and August were revised down by 33 thousand, combined. The economy lost jobs in both June and August.The second graph shows the year-over-year change in total non-farm employment since 1968. In September, the year-over-year change was 1.31 million jobs. Year-over-year employment growth is slowing sharply.The third graph shows the employment population ratio and the participation rate. The Labor Force Participation Rate increased to 62.4% in September, from 62.3% in August. This is the percentage of the working age population in the labor force.The Employment-Population ratio was increased to 59.7% from 59.6% in August (blue line). The fourth graph shows the unemployment rate.The unemployment rate was increased to 4.4% in September from 4.3% in August.This was above consensus expectations, however, July and August payrolls were revised down by 33,000 combined. Overall another weak report.

September jobs report: US economy added 119,000 jobs amid economic uncertainty -The U.S. economy added jobs in September amid uncertainty about economic conditions, but job creation levels remained relatively subdued and added to signs of a weakening labor market. The Labor Department on Thursday reported that employers added 119,000 jobs in September, a figure that was above the estimate of economists polled by LSEG.The unemployment rate rose to 4.4% in September, which was higher than economists' expectations.Originally scheduled for release on Oct. 3, the September jobs report was delayed by a month and a half because of the 43-day government shutdown, which furloughed workers at the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) who are responsible for compiling the report.Job gains in the prior two months were both revised in the September report, with job creation in July revised down by 7,000 from a gain of 79,000 to 72,000; while August job creation for August was revised down by 26,000 from a gain of 22,000 to a loss of 4,000.Taken together, employment in July and August combined was 33,000 lower than previously reported.Private payrolls added 97,000 jobs in September, which was above the LSEG estimate of 62,000.Government payrolls expanded by 22,000 jobs in September after declining by the same amount in August. State governments added 16,000 jobs and local governments added 9,000 jobs, while the federal government shed 3,000 jobs in September.The Bureau of Labor Statistics noted that federal employment is down by 97,000 jobs since reaching a peak in January. It also noted that federal workers on paid leave or receiving ongoing severance pay are counted as employed in the agency's establishment survey. The manufacturing sector lost 6,000 jobs in September, a smaller drop than the 8,000 loss estimated by LSEG economists. Overall, the manufacturing sector is down 94,000 jobs on a seasonally adjusted basis from a year ago.Healthcare businesses added 42,800 jobs in September, which was slightly higher than the 12-month average of 42,000 over the last year, led by gains in ambulatory healthcare services (+23,300) and hospitals (+16,400).Food services and drinking places added 36,500 jobs in September, while the social assistance industry gained 14,300 jobs for the month.Transportation and warehousing shed 25,300 jobs in September, driven by losses in warehousing and storage (-10,700) and couriers and messengers (-6,700).The labor force participation rate was 62.4% in September, having changed little over the month and the past year. The employment-population ratio was also little changed in September at 59.7% – though it's down 0.4 percentage points over the last year.The number of long-term unemployed, defined as being jobless for 27 weeks or more, changed little at 1.8 million in September. The long-term unemployed accounted for 23.6% of all unemployed people for the month.Workers who were employed part-time for economic reasons changed little at 4.6 million in September. These individuals would've preferred full-time employment but were working part-time because their hours were reduced, or they were unable to find full-time jobs.The number of multiple jobholders increased by 17,000 in September and represented 5.4% of total employment for the month.

US posts solid job growth in September, but unemployment rate rises (Reuters) - U.S. employment growth accelerated in September, but the labor market remained sluggish and failed to keep pace with new job-seekers as employers dealt with fallout from import tariffs and integrated artificial intelligence into some positions. The jobless rate rose to 4.4%, its highest level in four years, from 4.3% in August, the Labor Department said in its closely watched employment report on Thursday. The August payrolls data was revised to show employers shedding jobs for the second time this year, underscoring the labor market softness. Other data from the Labor Department showed layoffs stayed low in mid-November, suggesting the job market remained stuck in what economists and policymakers call a "no-hire, no-fire" state. Some economists viewed the rise in the jobless rate as bolstering the argument for another Federal Reserve interest rate cut next month, while others said the better-than-expected job growth suggested the U.S. central bank should stay pat, especially since policymakers would not get another employment report before the December 9-10 meeting. "The upside surprise in this report is positive, but it likely dampens prospects for a rate cut in December," "The slight uptick in the unemployment rate complicates the narrative - pick your poison, stronger job growth or rising unemployment, because the good news may not be as good after all." Nonfarm payrolls increased by 119,000 jobs after a downwardly revised drop of 4,000 in August, the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics said. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast 50,000 jobs would be added after a previously reported gain of 22,000 in August. The survey of establishments also showed job growth in July was downgraded by 7,000 to 72,000 positions. The report was initially due on October 3, but was delayed by the shutdown of the federal government. The 43-day shutdown, the longest in U.S. history, forced the BLS to cancel the release of October's report as no data was collected for the household survey to calculate the unemployment rate for that month. October nonfarm payrolls will instead be combined with November's employment report now due on December 16, the BLS said. The delay, however, boosted the establishment survey collection rate to a higher-than-usual 80.2% as businesses self-reported electronically during the shutdown, the BLS said. Low collection rates have accounted for big revisions to payrolls data. Job gains in September were partially flattered by difficulties adjusting for workers leaving their summer jobs, resulting in higher payroll counts in the leisure and hospitality industry as well as retail industry. The healthcare sector continued to lead employment growth, adding 43,000 jobs in September, mostly in ambulatory services and at hospitals. Employment at restaurants and bars increased by 37,000 jobs, with overall leisure and hospitality payrolls rising by 47,000. Retailers added 13,900 positions. But the transportation and warehousing industry lost more than 25,000 jobs, while manufacturing shed a further 6,000 positions. Professional and business services payrolls decreased, with temporary help services accounting for the bulk of the drop. Federal government employment dropped by another 3,000 jobs, bringing the total losses since January to 97,000. That number is expected to surge as tens of thousands of workers who took buyouts dropped off government payrolls at the end of September. The labor market has lost significant momentum this year, as evidenced by sharp downward revisions to nonfarm payroll counts. Economists and policymakers blame the slowdown on reduced supply and demand for workers. Others blamed the Trump administration's trade policy for creating an uncertain economic environment that had hamstrung the ability of businesses, especially small enterprises, to hire. Heading into the economic data blackout, the BLS had estimated that about 911,000 fewer jobs were created in the 12 months through March than previously reported. A reduction in immigration that started during the final year of former President Joe Biden's term and has accelerated since President Donald Trump's return to the White House this year has depleted labor supply. Economists estimate the economy needs to create less than 100,000 jobs per month to keep up with growth in the working-age population, though the rise in the unemployment rate in August and September suggests the break-even rate could be higher. "The unemployment rate has trended higher, but for the 'right' reasons because labor force participation is rising even faster than the solid gains in employment," "This is very far from the results one would expect if the labor market were spiraling downward." The household survey from which the unemployment rate is derived showed 470,000 people entered the labor force in September, but household employment only increased by 251,000. There has been a steady rise in the number of people who have permanently lost their jobs, which persisted in September. Fewer people reported working part-time for economic reasons, but many were holding more than one job. Though there were a drop in the number of those experiencing long bouts of unemployment, the ranks of people out of work for up to 26 weeks swelled. That change pushed the median duration of joblessness to 10.0 weeks from 9.8 weeks in August. The rising integration of artificial intelligence is also eroding demand for labor, with most of the hit landing on entry-level positions, and locking recent college graduates out of work. Economists said AI was fueling jobless economic growth. The unemployment rate for college graduates increased to 2.8% from 2.7% in August. Wages continued to grow at a brisk clip, advancing by 3.8% in the 12 months through September, matching the gain in August. This trend should help underpin a moderate pace of consumer spending and keep the economy afloat. "These changes complicate traditional interpretations of job numbers, but also point toward a labor market undergoing gradual, not chaotic, transformation," said Sung Won Sohn, a finance and economics professor at Loyola Marymount University. "The key question for the year ahead is whether the economy can maintain this delicate equilibrium."

Framed-up University of Michigan researcher Yunqing Jian sentenced and deported - On November 12, University of Michigan researcher Yunqing Jian was sentenced to “time served” and immediately deported back to China. Her sentencing and deportation were the result of a government-manufactured “agroterrorism” frame-up. After five months of incarceration, the 33-year-old Chinese scientist was brought into a Detroit federal courtroom in chains to finalize a plea deal that exposed the fraudulent character of the government’s entire case. Jian, until June a postdoctoral research fellow at a University of Michigan (U-M) lab, pleaded guilty to charges of smuggling and making false statements to investigators. In exchange, the government dropped its conspiracy charge. US District Judge Susan DeClercq, who called the case “very strange,” sentenced Jian to the five months she had already spent in jail and ordered her removal from the US to China. The government alleged that Jian conspired with her boyfriend, Zunyong Liu, to smuggle Fusarium graminearum, a common fungus that can cause wheat disease, and plasmid DNA materials into the country. While Liu was intercepted at the Detroit Metropolitan Airport in July 2024, Jian was not arrested until nearly a year later, following an investigation. Jian initially faced charges carrying a potential 25-year prison term. Since Jian’s initial incarceration, the government has escalated its crackdown against Chinese academics at the same U-M lab, resulting in charges against four other researchers for smuggling and making false statements to agents. This witch-hunt continued with the case of Chengxuan Han, who was sentenced to time served and deported last September. Following Han’s sentencing, three more Chinese researchers at U-M—Xu Bai, Fengfan Zhang, and Zhiyong Zhang—were arrested and jailed in November. In the course of Jian’s November 12 sentencing hearing, the prosecution made extraordinary admissions, abandoning its own hysterical narrative. This confirmed what we said from the beginning: the case against Jian, as well as the prosecution and jailing of the four other Chinese researchers at U-M, is a politically motivated witch-hunt, created to fuel the anti-China war drive and escalate the Trump administration’s fomenting of a climate of fear and repression on college campuses. At the hearing, Assistant US Attorney Michael Martin demanded a two-year prison sentence. This demand, however, contradicted Martin’s own stunning admission in open court, when he conceded, “I don’t have evidence that she had evil intent.” This statement shattered the entire premise of the government’s case. For five months, the Department of Justice (DOJ) and the FBI painted Jian as a sinister biosecurity threat who had smuggled an “agroterrorism” weapon into the heartland of America. The defense provided the simple and obvious motive for Jian’s circumventing of biological materials transport regulations, which was scientific, not criminal. An expert for the defense, Prof. Roger Innes of Indiana University, affirmed in a letter attached to the defense memorandum that the Fusarium graminearum strain was “ubiquitous in Michigan.” He concluded the genetic modifications would “not increase the virulence ... but could weaken it” and that the samples “did not present any appreciable danger of infestation or disease, let alone a ‘significant risk.’” Innes noted that the researchers likely wanted to use a specialized microscope available at the U-M lab. Jian expressed her motivation in a letter filed with the court. “I did not follow the rules because I was under pressure to proceed with research and produce results,” she wrote. “The research was not to harm anyone, but instead to find ways to protect crops from disease.”

Democrats push to stop Donald Trump's plan to sell off student loan portfolio - More than 40 Democratic lawmakers are highlighting and trying to prevent reported Trump administration plans to sell the government’s student loan portfolio to the private market. Last month, Politico reported the Education Department and Treasury Department were discussing the sale of the portfolio, a move the Democrats argue in a Sunday letter would be a disaster for student loan borrowers. “Let’s be clear: This sale would be a giveaway to wealthy insiders at the expense of working-class borrowers and taxpayers. It threatens the loss of borrowers’ legally guaranteed protections, and the sale would likely be illegal if the debt is sold at a loss for taxpayers. We urge you to immediately cease any efforts to privatize the federal student loan portfolio,” reads the letter, which was led by Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.). The Democrats argue it is illegal to strip borrowers of certain protections and the Trump administration in the sale of the portfolio could go after income-driven repayment programs, death and disability discharges and relief for those defrauded by their schools. It could also cause losses to the taxpayer, according to Democrats. The law states the student loan portfolio cannot be sold at the expense of the taxpayer. “Furthermore, as a result of a previous failed attempt to sell the student loan portfolio, the Trump Administration already possesses information suggesting that the sale of student loans would not be in the government’s fiscal interest,” the letter said. Asked about the reported plans, Ellen Keast, press secretary for higher education at the Education Department, said, “We are evaluating ways to improve the fiscal health of the nearly $1.7 trillion student loan portfolio to safeguard the interests of both students and taxpayers.”

Surveys find strong confidence in childhood vaccines but deepening partisan divides; most adults reject COVID shot -A pair of new Pew Research Center surveys finds that while nearly two-thirds of US adults view childhood vaccines as effective, confidence in their safety and in vaccine policy is increasingly shaped by political affiliation. At the same time, changes to federal COVID-19 vaccine recommendations appear to have had little impact on willingness to receive an updated shot. In a nationally representative survey of more than 5,100 adults, 63% say they are extremely or very confident that routine childhood vaccines are effective at preventing serious illness. But confidence dropped when respondents were asked about childhood vaccine safety and schedules: only 53% feel confident that vaccines have undergone enough safety testing, and 51% believe vaccine schedules are safe. Conversely, roughly one in five respondents are not too or not at all confident in either safety issue. Both Democrats (92%) and Republicans (78%) say the benefits of the measles, mumps, and rubella (MMR) vaccine outweigh the risks. Yet, for Republicans, that share is down from 91% in 2016. And more Republicans (20%) than Democrats (9%) rate the risk of MMR vaccine side effects as high. Republican support for MMR vaccine school requirements has also fallen sharply in recent years. Just over half (52%) of Republicans now support school requirements, down from 79% in 2019. Overall public support dropped from 82% to 69% over the same period.The survey also explored public views on who should shape childhood vaccine policy. Democrats (85%) are much more likely than Republicans (62%) to say medical scientists should play a major role in making childhood vaccine decisions. In contrast, Republicans are more likely to say parents of young children should play a major role (71% vs 46%). Only small minorities in either party believe federal or state officials, pharmaceutical leaders, or insurers should influence these decisions. A separate Pew survey examined whether recent changes to US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) vaccine guidelines have influenced Americans' decisions to receive an updated COVID-19 vaccine. According to the survey, the new recommendations have had little effect on public uptake. A majority of adults (59%) say they do not plan to receive the updated vaccine, similar to 2024 levels. Thirteen percent of respondents had already received the vaccine as of late October, and just 26% say they want to get it. Awareness of the new CDC guidance is limited, with 44% of adults saying they hadn't heard about the changes. Among the 56% who had heard at least a little about the new guidelines, most (63%) say the changes haven't influenced their decision. But the new guidelines have affected trust. Four in 10 adults say the changes make them less confident in the Trump administration's other vaccine recommendations. That sentiment is strongly partisan: 57% of Democrats familiar with the changes say it reduces their trust, compared with 20% of Republicans.

Even low-intensity smoking increases risk of heart attack and death, study finds - An analysis of data from almost two dozen long-term studies finds that even low-intensity smokers have a substantially higher risk of heart disease and death compared to people who never smoked, even years after they quit. Michael Blaha of the Johns Hopkins Ciccarone Center for Prevention of Cardiovascular Disease and colleagues report these findings in PLOS Medicine.Previous research has shown that smoking cigarettes increases a person's risk of developing cardiovascular disease, but the exact relationship between how heavily a person smokes and their risks is still unclear, especially for low-intensity smokers. Today, more people are smoking fewer cigarettes, but it's still important to understand the cardiovascular risks and long-term benefits of quitting, even for individuals who aren't smoking a pack a day.Blaha's team analyzed data from more than 300,000 adults enrolled in 22 longitudinal studies—which involve following groups of individuals over time—for up to 19.9 years. In that time, they documented more than 125,000 deaths and 54,000 cardiovascular events, such as heart attacks, strokes and heart failure. The analysis showed that even very low-intensity smoking, defined as two to five cigarettes per day, was associated with a 50% higher risk of heart failure and a 60% higher risk of death from any cause, compared to never smoking. A person's risk of cardiovascular events dropped most substantially in the first decade after quitting smoking and continued to decrease over time. However, even up to three decades later, former smokers may still exhibit higher risk compared to those who never smoked. Considering that even occasional or very low-intensity smoking significantly increases a person's risk of cardiovascular disease and death, the researchers conclude that quitting smoking at a younger age is the best way to decrease risk, rather than reducing the number of cigarettes smoked each day.The authors add, "It is remarkable how harmful smoking is—even low doses of smoking confer large cardiovascular risks. As far as behavior change, it is imperative to quit smoking as early in life as possible, as the amount of time passed since complete cessation of cigarettes is more important than prolonged exposure to a lower quantity of cigarettes each day."

A Silent Kidney Crisis Is Spreading Faster Than Anyone Expected --A growing number of people worldwide are now believed to have reduced kidney function, according to a new analysis. The number of affected individuals increased from 378 million in 1990 to 788 million in 2023. As populations have expanded and grown older, the condition has reached a point where it is now listed among the top 10 causes of death across the globe. Researchers from NYU Langone Health, the University of Glasgow, and the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington led the investigation. Their work focused on chronic kidney disease, a condition in which the kidneys gradually lose the ability to clear waste and extra fluid from the bloodstream. Early stages often produce no noticeable symptoms, while advanced disease may require dialysis, kidney replacement therapy, or a transplant. The study estimates that roughly 14% of adults worldwide live with chronic kidney disease. In addition, approximately 1.5 million people died from the condition in 2023. When changes in population age structures are taken into account, this represents more than a 6% increase in deaths since 1993. "Our work shows that chronic kidney disease is common, deadly, and getting worse as a major public health issue," said study co-senior author Josef Coresh, MD, PhD, director of NYU Langone's Optimal Aging Institute. "These findings support efforts to recognize the condition alongside cancer, heart disease, and mental health concerns as a major priority for policymakers around the world." In May, the World Health Organization added chronic kidney disease to its list of health priorities aimed at reducing early deaths from noncontagious diseases by one-third before 2030. Coresh, who is also the Terry and Mel Karmazin Professor of Population Health at the NYU Grossman School of Medicine, notes that identifying current patterns in the disease is essential for developing effective strategies. The new report was published online Nov. 7 in The Lancet and, according to the authors, represents the most detailed assessment of chronic kidney disease in nearly ten years. It is also being presented at the American Society of Nephrology's annual Kidney Week conference.

Medicare Plan B premiums to jump 10 percent in 2026 - Medicare Part B premiums will rise by about 10 percent in 2026 according to a notice from the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS). The CMS released a notice laying out the monthly actuarial rates for Medicare Part B beneficiaries beginning in 2026. For seniors and disabled enrollees, the monthly actuarial rates will be $405.40 and $585.60. “The 2026 premium is 9.7 percent or $17.90 higher than the 2025 standard premium rate of $185.00,” the notice stated, leaving a total of $202.90. This jump is almost twice the percentage increase seen in 2025, when the standard monthly Part B premium rate went up from $174.70 in 2024 to $185. The deductible for all Part B enrollees next year will be $283. Medicare Part B covers certain medical costs including ambulance services, outpatient hospital services, some prescription drugs, medical equipment, oxygen equipment and services for substance use disorders. The Trump administration claimed the increase would have been higher had the CMS not taken action on skin substitutes earlier this year. Skin substitutes are biologic or synthetic products used for outpatient wound care. The CMS proposed in July measures to “reduce waste and unnecessary use of skin substitutes.” The agency cited data showing Medicare Part B spending on skin substitutes had gone from $256 million in 2019 to more than $10 billion in 2024. The Department of Health and Human Services Office of Inspector General said in September that skin substitutes appear to be “particularly vulnerable to questionable billing and fraud schemes.” “The increase in the 2026 Part B standard premium and deductible is mainly due to projected price changes and assumed utilization increases that are consistent with historical experience. If the Trump Administration had not taken action to address unprecedented spending on skin substitutes, the Part B premium increase would have been about $11 more a month,” the CMS said in a statement last week announcing next year’s premiums. “However, due to changes finalized in the 2026 Physician Fee Schedule Final Rule, spending on skin substitutes is expected to drop by 90% without affecting patient care.” Rep. Richard Neal (D-Mass.), ranking member of the House Ways and Means Committee, blasted the increased premium rate. “The across-the-board cost increases in Medicare announced by the Trump Administration show that nobody will be spared from their endless assault on people’s wallets and the public health system,” Neal said in a statement Monday. “Not content with exorbitant premium hikes for those who purchase their own coverage, Trump has taken action to raise costs for all Americans with employer coverage and is now hiking costs for people covered by Medicare by more than $200 a year.”

Report: NIH clinical trial cuts impact 74,000 people - More than 74,000 people have had their lives disrupted by Trump administration cuts to clinical trials supported by the National Institutes of Health (NIH), according to a report released Monday. From the end of February to August, the administration’s unprecedented broadside against the NIH resulted in funding losses for 383 clinical trials, new research published in the journal JAMA Internal Medicine found. The cuts impacted trials disproportionately studying infectious diseases like COVID-19; prevention for cancer, heart disease and brain disease; and behavioral interventions. Most of the clinical trials were based in the Northeastern U.S. or in other countries. Researchers counted 11,008 NIH-funded studies; 1 in 30 lost funding. The ended trials mean there could be a potential treatment or cure that isn’t discovered. Shortly after President Trump retook office, his administration directed agencies to terminate funding for diversity, equity and inclusion initiatives, as well as any programs it considers wasteful. The Supreme Court greenlighted the Trump administration’s continued termination of NIH funding in August, though separate legal challenges managed to disparately preserve some grants. Challenges to the NIH’s attempted cuts to the “indirect costs” of medical research are also making their way through the courts. “Unanticipated funding disruptions raise concerns about avoidable waste, data quality, and compromised ethical obligations to participants,” the authors wrote. An editorial accompanying the study called the cancellations a violation of the ethical principles of human participant research. “For some participants, enrolling in a trial was a source of hope, in situations when other treatment options were inadequate. For some, participating in the study was a part of their legacy, a way they hoped to contribute to humankind, which will now be denied,” the editorial said.

5 ways our health care system has become utterly insane - Katelyn Jetelina | Your Local Epidemiologist - While Congress debates whether to extend subsidies for the Affordable Care Act (ACA) coverage, Americans with all types of insurance are bracing for higher premiums, narrower networks, and more impossible choices. So, to me, the debate in Washington is far too small. The real story isn’t just whether subsidies stay or go—it’s how completely insane our health care system has become, and whether there will be a serious effort to address underlying costs in the system. I know juuussstttt enough to get in trouble, so I partnered with the incredible Hayden Rooke-Ley, who is a leading national policy expert in this area, to break down the five ways the entire system has gone off the rails.

• 1. Over the past two decades, the cost of employer-sponsored health insurance—how the vast majority of privately insured Americans obtain their health care—has skyrocketed. Premiums, deductibles, and out-of-pocket costs have all soared—far faster than wages. Figure made by Hayden from cobbling together a few sources, including Kaiser Family Foundation and CMS Health Expenditure Projections.This widening gap means workers earn less, even when their salaries rise on paper. Every dollar going to premiums is a dollar not going to rent, groceries, or childcare.And the human toll is clear. One in three Americans has medical debt, and more than half worry they’ll fall into debt any time they use the health care system. That fear changes behavior: people delay appointments, skip medications, or avoid care altogether.Medical debt is now the most common form of debt in collections ahead of credit cards, utilities, or personal loans. Nearly 60% of those in medical debt have insurance.
• 2. We pay the most and get the least. The United States spends far more on health care than any other wealthy country yet achieves worse outcomes, less access, and a more demoralized workforce.
• Outcomes: Despite record spending, Americans live shorter, sicker lives than peers in Europe, Canada, or Japan. Infant mortality, maternal mortality, and chronic disease rates all rank near the worst among high-income nations. A key reason is that we pour money into specialty medical services while underinvesting in prevention, such as primary care and social supports like housing and nutrition.
• Access: Critics often argue that “at least we don’t have long wait times like other countries.” However, increasingly the opposite is true (and this is never a fair comparison, as we spend twice as much as they do). More than 100 million Americans live in a primary-care desert, while almost 60 million live in a pharmacy desert. Services to treat mental health are notoriously lacking, and Medicare does not even cover long-term care.
• Clinician workforce: Health care workers are burning out or leaving the profession altogether. Home health care aides are paid extremely low wages for heroic work. As corporations attempt to convert salaried positions into gig work, some nurses are compelled tobid against one another for shifts. Many physicians report moral injury working in systems that prioritize billing over care, eroding autonomy and morale.
• 3. Americans don’t “overconsume” health care. Prices and private bloat drive costs.There’s a common myth, especially amongst policymakers, that we spend too much on health care because we consume too much of it. A similar narrative has taken hold about doctors: because they get paid for each service, they provide too much care. Certainly, there is low-value care in the U.S. health care system. And as profit-seeking corporate actors own more and more of the system, they’re finding ways to bill for more—and more expensive—services. But Americans don’t visit the doctor more, we don’t go to the hospital more, and we don’t stay in the hospital for longer. We even get significantly fewer of many of the most popular procedures—like coronary angioplasties, knee replacements, hip replacements, and gall bladder and prostate removals. The real difference is price. Take a look at this graph, as one example for hip replacements A colonoscopy or MRI can cost 10 times more at one hospital than another across town, depending on which insurer you have. These differences have little to do with quality or cost of care. They’re the result of opaque negotiations between insurers, hospitals, and pharmacy benefit managers, and other middlemen in the system. We’ve created a system where no one knows what anything costs: not the doctor, not the patient, sometimes not even the insurer. The surprise bill arrives weeks later.On top of high prices, our system is drowning in private-sector bloat and bureaucracy. More so than any other country. Every insurer has its own prices (and endless price negotiations with providers), billing processes, prior authorization rules, and reporting requirements. The result is staggering inefficiency: roughly one in four dollars spent on health insurance goes to something other than care, like marketing, billing, profits, or middlemen. Doctors spend nearly half their time on paperwork. Patients spend hours on hold, fighting over denied claims. And all of it is baked into costs.
• 4. Corporate and financial firms have taken over care. Perhaps the most underappreciated transformation of the past 40 years is the corporate consolidation and financialization of medicine. Care delivery—once local and community-based—is now dominated by corporations. Vertical consolidation is now a defining feature of American health care. UnitedHealth Group isn’t just the largest insurer; it’s also the largest employer of physicians and the largest operator of home health and hospice agencies. CVS Health, the largest pharmacy chain, also owns the biggest pharmacy benefit managers—and now giant insurer, Aetna. McKesson, a pharmaceutical distributor, now operates the nation’s largest chain of oncology practices and is rapidly expanding into other specialties. These combinations raise all the conflicts of interest you’d expect—higher prices, business steered away from independent providers and pharmacies, gaming regulations, and more. Hospitals have been on a similar trajectory. No longer charitable facilities, they’ve been buying up physician practices, starting insurance plans, and operating financial investment firms. Public hospitals have declined sharply, while giant for-profit systems, such as HCA Healthcare and CommonSpirit, have expanded nationwide. In half of U.S. metro areas, just one or two systems dominate the market.Then there’s private equity (PE). From 2000 to 2020, PE’s footprint in health care exploded 25-fold—from $5 billion to more than $100 billion a year in deals, totaling over $1 trillion. Private-equity firms now own everything from nursing homes and hospices, to emergency departments and physician practices. Their model is simple: buy up fragmented practices, cut labor costs, raise prices, and resell for profit. Evidence shows quality declines, and in some cases, mortality rises, after PE takeovers.
• 5. Existing approaches have failed—and the latest proposals are more of the same. None of this happened by coincidence. Our current governing approach began in the 1980s, when a bipartisan consensus emerged around how to address accelerating costs in the system. The idea was to embrace more free market principles in health care, resulting in three significant shifts in how we approached policy:
• Private insurers compete for patients (called managed competition), which was hypothesized to lower costs and improve quality. In reality, the government pays hundreds of billions to the nation’s largest insurance companies, which now operate most of Medicaid and Medicare, and all of the ACA exchanges. The same happened with prescription drugs: instead of Medicare negotiating prices directly with pharmaceuticals, it’s now the job of pharmacy benefit managers (PBMs), costing Americans more.
• Overreliance on economic incentives—the notion that physicians and patients won’t do the right thing unless they have more “skin in the game.” Democrats embraced this ideology by pushing physicians into “value-based care,” a rebranding of HMO-style managed care, and a close cousin of privatized Medicare. On the patient side, Republicans insisted that they actually needed higher deductibles, so they would ration their care more wisely. But, again, Americans don’t “use” too much health care. Plus, a patient can’t “shop” for emergency surgery or chemotherapy.
• Commercialization: The U.S. began converting public hospitals to for-profit chains, and abandoned care delivery models with commitments to voluntarism (i.e., actual non-profits) and professional ethics (i.e., clinician-owned medical clinics).

The current debate recycles the same logic: more private control, higher out-of-pocket costs, and less regulation of prices or profits. The latest idea is that deductibles need to be higher and patients don’t pay enough.This approach has failed for 40 years. It will continue to fail because it doesn’t address the true crisis of U.S. health care: high costs from high prices (especially for new technology); consolidation and extraction at every level; and lackluster and misallocated capacity. Bottom line; The U.S. health care system is uniquely dysfunctional. A different approach is entirely possible—if we have the will to boldly govern the health care system in the interests of patients, clinicians, and taxpayers. That means directly tackling prices, eliminating middlemen, and breaking up behemoths. It also means returning ownership of care delivery to clinicians and communities and pursuing a strategy that builds the workforce and capacity to meet Americans’ needs.Health touches everyone, and we need a system that works for us, not one that makes us work for it.

After unprecedented autism-vaccine messaging change, scientists, advocates say CDC no longer trustworthy - For nearly 80 years, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) was respected around the world for its authoritative, evidence-based leadership in public health. But the CDC’s stunning reversal Wednesday—stating on its website that “studies have not ruled out the possibility that infant vaccines cause autism”—shows the agency can no longer be trusted, multiple doctors and public health advocates told CIDRAP News. Until late yesterday, the CDC webpage accurately stated, “Studies have shown that there is no link between receiving vaccines and developing autism spectrum disorder (ASD). No links have been found between any vaccine ingredients and ASD.” Today, the CDC website echoes the views of Health and Human Services (HHS) Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who has claimed without evidence that vaccines cause autism. The CDC website now states, “The claim ‘vaccines do not cause autism’ is not an evidence-based claim because studies have not ruled out the possibility that infant vaccines cause autism.” Instead of a global leader in science, the CDC has devolved into “a propaganda machine for RFK Jr.'s fixed, immutable, science-resistant theories,” said Paul Offit, MD, an infectious disease specialist at Children’s Hospital of Philadelphia and co-inventor of the rotavirus vaccine. “The CDC is being weaponized to promote RFK Jr.’s anti-vaccine point of view. So why should you trust it?” Many public health experts who spoke to CIDRAP News sounded sorrowful. “Today is a tragic day for public health, for the US government,” said Michael T. Osterholm, PhD, MPH, director of the University of Minnesota's Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy (publisher of CIDRAP News). “Ideology has replaced science as the means for addressing life-saving research and best practices that save lives.” Many physicians worry that the CDC’s new message will dissuade parents from vaccinating their children. “This will cause real harm,” said Jake Scott, MD, an infectious disease expert and clinical associate professor at the Stanford University School of Medicine. “Parents searching for trustworthy information will find official CDC language that appears to validate concerns that have been thoroughly debunked. Some will delay or skip vaccines. We know what happens next—preventable diseases return to communities with low vaccination rates.” The CDC also removed scientific reviews of vaccines from its website. The website now rehashes conspiracy theories claiming that government scientists and the medical community have hidden the truth about vaccines, claiming, that “studies supporting a link have been ignored by health authorities.” We know what happens next—preventable diseases return to communities with low vaccination rates. Attacking scientists as dishonest and corrupt comes straight out of the anti-vaccine playbook, said Peter Hotez, MD, codirector of the Texas Children’s Hospital Center for Vaccine Development, who also helped develop an affordable, unpatented COVID-19 vaccine. “This is how the wellness influencer industry works,” Hotez said. “It’s not enough to push the snake oil. You have to discredit mainstream biomedical science and portray scientists as public enemies or cartoon villains, and that's what Kennedy’s seeking to do.”

COVID-19 pandemic boosted wages for the lowest-earning health care workers, finds study - For the past several decades, the American economy has seen consistently widening wage gaps. Highly educated and specially trained workers have seen their salaries steadily rise, while less-educated workers in lower-wage positions have seen their pay remain stagnant. The COVID-19 pandemic, however, disrupted that trend as lower-wage workers across many industries saw earnings climb faster than those of higher earners.A new study from the University of Minnesota School of Public Health examines how this trend played out in the context of the health care industry—a field critical to pandemic response yet marked by longstanding pay inequities. Using data from more than 158,000 health care workers between 2015 and 2024, the researchers tracked weekly earnings across six job categories—from advanced practice providers like nurses and technicians, to less skilled health care aides and assistants—and analyzed pay trends by education, race and ethnicity, and gender.The study, published in Health Affairs, found:

• Workers with a high school diploma experienced the biggest percentage wage increase, whereas those with college degrees saw little or no growth.
• Health care aides and assistants saw the largest wage growth while registered nurses' and technicians' pay was nearly flat.
• Black and Hispanic workers earned less overall but had higher relative wage growth than white workers, and women's pay rose faster than men's—narrowing the gender wage gap among health care workers.

"The COVID-19 pandemic shook up the labor market in many ways that we are still coming to understand," said Janette Dill, an associate professor in the School of Public Health and lead author."We saw this kind of 'unexpected compression' in other fields, but no one had looked closely at whether the same thing had occurred in the health care sector. Similar to the general labor market, we found that those in the lowest-earning occupations and lowest levels of education had the most earnings growth following the pandemic." Future research will assess the persistence of these wage trends in the health care workforce as labor market conditions continue to evolve.

Emergency department messaging doesn't increase COVID vaccine uptake, study finds -Emergency department (ED) patients who received tailored messages or a simple inquiry about the COVID-19 vaccine were no more likely to take the vaccine than patients who didn't receive interventions, according to a recent study published in JAMA Network Open.For the cluster randomized clinical trial, a team led by University of California researchers divided 852 ED patients into three groups. The first group received a tailored message about the COVID vaccine followed by a question about their willingness to accept the vaccine. The second group received a vaccine acceptance question only, and the third group received no intervention beyond usual care. The 464 women and 388 men who participated in the trial had a median age of 47 and had not been vaccinated for COVID within the past 6 months. Participants were enrolled across six emergency departments.Vaccine uptake at 30 days was not significantly higher in either intervention group (5.7% vs 3.0%; absolute difference, 2.7 percentage points) compared with the control group (4.0% vs 3.0%; absolute difference, 1.0 percentage point). While the study found that neither intervention significantly increased vaccine uptake, more participants took the vaccine when it was readily available in the ED (9.8% vs 3.3%; absolute difference, 6.5 percentage points). “Tailored messaging alone, even when built with personalization and thoughtful ethical considerations, is likely not enough. Less than 6% of patients in the intervention arms received the booster,"

Long COVID can take eight different trajectories, study finds --New research led by Mass General Brigham followed more than 3,500 patients, finding that 10.3% had symptoms consistent with long COVID three months after infection, 81% of whom continued to experience persistent or intermittent symptoms a year later.Millions of patients have developed long COVID, a chronic condition that involves a range of symptoms, including fatigue, brain fog, dizziness, and palpitations that persist for at least three months after SARS-CoV-2 infection. In a new analysis of adult participants in the Researching COVID to Enhance Recovery (RECOVER) Initiative, Mass General Brigham researchers identified eight different trajectories that long COVID can take, depending on severity, duration, and whether symptoms improve or worsen.Their findings are published in Nature Communications."This study addresses an urgent need to define the differing long COVID trajectories," said senior author Bruce Levy, MD, of the Mass General Brigham Department of Medicine and the Division of Pulmonary and Critical Care Medicine."Our findings will help determine what resources are needed for clinical and public health support of individuals with long COVID and will also inform efforts to understand long COVID's biological basis." To identify long COVID trajectories, the researchers followed 3,659 adult RECOVER participants who first contracted SARS-CoV-2 during the omicron variant era (after Dec. 1, 2021). The participants completed a comprehensive symptom questionnaire at three-, six-, nine-, 12-, and 15-months post-infection to track changes over time.Then, the researchers identified patients with long COVID using the long COVID research index, a symptom-based tool that was previously developed by Mass General Brigham researchers. Overall, 10.3% of patients had long COVID symptoms three months after infection, and 81% of these patients continued to experience persistent or intermittent symptoms a year later. Female patients and those who had been hospitalized with an acute SARS-CoV-2 infection were more likely to develop persistently severe long COVID symptoms.The researchers identified eight different long COVID trajectories. Some of these trajectories included persistently severe symptoms, intermittently severe symptoms, gradually improving symptoms, gradually worsening symptoms, and mild symptoms that only appeared after 15 months."The variability we identified will enable future studies to evaluate risk factors and biomarkers that could explain why patients vary in time of recovery, and help identify potential therapeutic targets,"

A rough flu season may be taking shape - Katelyn Jetelina | Your Local Epidemiologist -The government shutdown is over, and a few things are finally back online: CDC data, SNAP funding, and flights returning to something resembling normal (or at least as “smooth” as air travel ever gets). That’s the good news. The bad news? We could be heading into a brutal flu season. The infant botulism outbreak linked to formula is climbing, and the U.S. may soon face a review of its measles elimination status, following Canada’s loss of theirs last week. Every Friday, the CDC updates their “influenza-like illness” (ILI) data. This is a database where providers tally patients who presented with ILI—a fever, a cough, and/or sore throat—at their offices. So these numbers are a general indication of the climate of respiratory health in the United States. ILI is starting to creep up (particularly in Louisiana and Southern states) but is still below the “epidemic” level threshold. (This threshold is usually when I put on my mask when I’m at airports or crowded indoor places, because I don’t have time to get sick.) In other words, things aren’t bad yet. That said, buckle up for a potentially rough flu season. While the U.S. season is just ramping up, the U.K., Japan, and Canada are already seeing steep increases. Why? One strain of flu—influenza A (H3N2)—mutated over the summer as it spread through the southern hemisphere. Specifically, it shifted from a J subclade to a K subclade. Mutations are normal for the flu. In fact, the flu is infamous for quick, unpredictable curveballs. But this particular change raises concern for two significant—but not catastrophic—reasons:

1. How much it changed. Drift—the smaller, incremental changes that happen as the virus spreads because it can’t copy itself perfectly. This was drift—but more drift than usual. Enough to matter but not enough to trigger panic.
2. The timing. The mutation happened right before our flu season. This means our current vaccines—which were finalized back in February—will likely recognize some, but not all, of this updated virus.

Together, these factors mean the virus will be better at slipping past both vaccines and prior immunity. That likely translates to more cases and more severe disease among those at highest risk. ….RSV activity continues to increase among our youngest. We’ve heard from some of you that the RSV vaccine isn’t stocked everywhere. After checking with Vaccines for Children, there are no national shortages—meaning some pediatric practices are simply under-ordering due to underestimating demand. We’re in a Covid lull, which is great. One big question right now: are vaccine rates lower this year because of the federal disarray under RFK Jr.? Normally, we’d have clear national data by now. These numbers matter. Without them, we can’t accurately anticipate what’s coming: hospital strain, missed work, and the broader burden of a potential wave. Canada lost its WHO measles elimination status last week after the same strain circulated there for more than a year, resulting in more than 5,200 cases and 2 deaths (89% of cases are unvaccinated). This is their worst year since 1991. Losing this status means that measles is now considered “endemic;” in other words, it’s constantly spreading across the country and not due to travel. … After nearly nine months without a human case—and with very little activity in birds—bird flu is picking up again. A person in Washington State, right along a major migratory bird pathway, has developed a severe infection. Details are still sparse, but the leading hypothesis is exposure to backyard poultry that had contact with wild birds. This is the first human case ever reported with the H5N5 strain—a different strain from H5N1, which has caused roughly 70 human cases since the beginning of last year. If you have backyard flocks, you are at increased risk for bird flu infection, and it can be severe. Take appropriate measures, especially now that bird flu is starting to ramp up again and we really don’t want to give this virus an opportunity to jump, mutate, and create another pandemic. More infant botulism cases linked to ByHeart formula were reported last week, bringing the national total to 23. While the company ultimately recalled all of its products, its initial response—pushing back on regulators and downplaying the evidence—badly misfired. And the evidence was unusually clear:

• Of 85 infant botulism cases reported since August nationwide, 37 had consumed formula at some point. And 20 out of those 37 were fed ByHeart products (54%). (Since these numbers were released, 3 more cases were added to the count.) The company’s formula products account for about 1% of U.S. baby formula sales.
• A tested sample of ByHeart formula fed to one sick infant contained the botulism-causing bacteria. When rats were tested with the formula, they died several hours later.

This is the first time this bacteria has ever been detected in infant formula. Typically, infant botulism comes from environmental exposure or honey. And because symptoms can take up to 30 days to appear, epidemiologists expect the case count for this outbreak to grow. Two families have already filed lawsuits. As New York YLE Marisa wrote in her moving piece last week, infant botulism is traumatic for families. Shame and blame have no place here.

Experimental mRNA flu vaccine is more effective than conventional flu shot, but causes more side effects -Recent mutations in circulating influenza viruses could make flu shots less effective this year, leading to an especially brutal flu season. It’s not a new problem.Flu viruses are infamous for their ability to evolve quickly and without warning, creating a mismatch between the shots already on the market and the viral strains spreading from person to person. Over the past 15 years, the effectiveness of seasonal flu vaccines has ranged from 19% to 60%,according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.A big part of the problem is that most flu vaccines today use a slow process in which influenza viruses are grown in fertilized eggs, a technique first used in the 1940s. Making flu vaccines this way requires huge numbers of eggs and takes about six months. In order for flu vaccines to be ready by fall, researchers have to choose which viral strains to include by February, “An issue with eggs in vaccine production is that the virus can adapt to the eggs, and the mutations involved in that reduce the match to the target strain and reduce the efficacy,” Hanage told CIDRAP News. “If you are growing things in eggs, it takes more time and a lot of eggs, which may be in short supply” due to bird flu outbreaks that have killed or led to the culling of millions of chickens.Scientists have looked for solutions for years. The Food and Drug Administration (FDA) approved two newer types of flu vaccines that are more effective than egg-based vaccines and which can be made more quickly, The FDA approved the first flu shots made in cell cultures in 2012, as well as flu vaccines made with recombinant technology that are created synthetically in labs in 2013. But given how much flu vaccine manufacturers have invested in egg-based production, most have been slow to transition to new technology, Adalja said. “With non-egg based vaccines, decisions about strain selection could be delayed until closer to the season’s start, lessening the chance of a vaccine strain mismatch,” Adalja explained. “Also, during a pandemic a vaccine could be made more quickly. During the last influenza pandemic, in 2009, the bulk of the egg-based pandemic vaccine was being administered after the peak of viral activity.” The results of a large clinical trial, published today in the New England Journal of Medicine, show that researchers are making progress on experimental mRNA flu shots, even if they aren’t yet ready to be rolled out to consumers. In the study, people randomly assigned to receive a flu shot made with modified mRNA were 29% less likely to be diagnosed with a lab-confirmed case of influenza by the end of winter than people given a conventional flu shot. The experimental mRNA vaccine prevented 60% to 67% of flu infections, while the conventional vaccine prevented 44% to 54% of infections, said Kelly Lindert, MD, vice president of clinical research and development at Pfizer and senior author of the new study. Mild to moderate side effects were much more common in those who received the mRNA shot, however. About 70% of adults given the mRNA vaccine developed redness, swelling, or pain in the part of their arm where they received the injection, compared with43% of those who received the traditional vaccine, About two-thirds of those vaccinated with an mRNA flu shot developed a fever, headache, fatigue, chills, vomiting, diarrhea, and muscle pain or joint pain, compared with about half of those given the traditional vaccine. Although participants in the study were healthy or medically stable, one-quarter had at least one risk factor for severe influenza. The number of serious side effects was low and about the same among people who received the mRNA or the traditional vaccine. “While there’s no evidence of an excess of really serious adverse events, there are clearly more of the moderate and not-pleasant adverse events,” Hanage said. “For many folks, this has been their dominant memory of COVID shots, and people will be reluctant to get vaccines on an annual basis which make them feel rotten.”

Multistate infant botulism outbreak adds 8 more cases, 23 total - The outbreak of infant botulism tied to infant powder formula has grown by eight cases in just three days, according to the latest updates from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and the Food and Drug Administration (FDA). The multistate outbreak, which is linked to ByHeart Whole Nutrition Infant Formula, now stands at 23 cases, all involving hospitalization. Infants in thirteen states have been affected, which means one new state is now affected. No deaths have been reported. Illness-onset dates range from August 9 to November 11. Infant ages range from 16 to 200 days. Infant botulism occurs when the bacterium Clostridium botulinum infects a baby's large intestine and produces toxin. Symptoms include constipation, poor feeding, loss of head control, and difficulty swallowing, which can progress to difficulty breathing and respiratory arrest. Symptoms can take several weeks to develop following ingestion. ByHeart recalled two lots of Whole Nutrition Infant Formula on November 8 on the recommendation of the FDA. The recommendation was based on the number of parents who had reported feeding ByHeart formula to infants in the outbreak, along with preliminary lab results from the California Department of Health that suggested the presence of C botulinum in an open can of ByHeart formula that had been fed to an infant in the outbreak. On November 11, the FDA expanded its recommendation to include all ByHeart infant formula products, and the company subsequently said it was expanding its voluntary recall to include all batches of Whole Nutrition Infant Formula cans and Anywhere Pack nationwide. ByHeart products account for roughly 1% of all infant formula sold in the United States. USA Today reports that two families have filed complaints in federal courts against ByHeart after their infants became ill. The CDC and the FDA are advising parents and caregivers to stop using any ByHeart infant formula products immediately, and for retailers to ensure that the recalled products are not on store shelves. The FDA says its investigation, including onsite inspections and sample collection, is ongoing.

CDC: 31 infants now sickened with botulism in formula-related outbreak -The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has confirmed eight new cases of infant botulism in the outbreak tied to powdered ByHeart Whole Nutrition infant formula, bringing the number of infections to 31 in 15 states, an increase of two states since the last update.The CDC warned parents to seek immediate medical care if their infant consumed ByHeart formula and then developed poor feeding, loss of head control, difficulty swallowing, and decreased facial expressions. “Symptoms of infant botulism can take as long as several weeks to develop, so parents should remain vigilant if they used ByHeart Whole Nutrition infant formula,” the CDC said. For 27 cases with illness onset information available, illnesses started on dates ranging from August 9 to November 13, 2025, the CDC said. All 31 patients have required hospitalization, So far, Texas has reported the most cases, with six, while California has four cases, and Oregon and Arizona each have three. The two new states added in this update are Idaho and Maine.ByHeart infant formula products account for roughly 1% of all infant formula sold in the United States. The CDC and the Food and Drug Administration recommend that parents and caregivers stop using any ByHeart infant formula products immediately.

FDA warns: Botulism-linked baby formula still on shelves -- The Food and Drug Administration (FDA) warned Thursday that recalled baby formula products linked to cases of infant botulism are still available for purchase at stores in multiple states, as the number of confirmed cases of the illness has reached 31.The FDA said it has received reports that the ByHeart Whole Nutrition infant formula is still stocked on shelves at multiple Walmart, Target and Kroger locations throughout the country. Reports indicate that the recalled baby formula is also being sold at one or more “Sprouts Organic Market, Safeway, Jewel-Osco, Shaw’s, and Star Market locations,” the FDA said.“All ByHeart infant formula products have been recalled, and these products should not be available for sale in stores or online,” the FDA said in its statement.As of Wednesday, the outbreak includes 31 infantssuspected or confirmed to have infant botulism, up from 23 cases in the previous update last Friday. The latest update also confirms two additional states — Idaho and Maine — with reported cases. In total, 15 states have reported cases linked to the outbreak. No deaths have been reported, but all 31 infants were hospitalized. Baby formula manufacturer ByHeart recalled all of its products sold nationwide last week, shortly after some batches were recalled in an expanding outbreak of infant botulism. The FDA had informed the company of the outbreak.The company conducted its own independent food safety testing and, on Wednesday, confirmed that some samples of its products are contaminated with the type of bacteria that causes infant botulism.“We continue to urge parents and caregivers to stop using ByHeart formula immediately, monitor your child for symptoms of infant botulism, and seek medical care immediately if they develop symptoms,” the company said on its website.

Utah, South Carolina confirm more measles as CDC call suggests US elimination status in jeopardy - State officials in Utah report 84 measles cases in the state in a weekly update today, an increase of 10 since last week. All 10 of the new cases come from southwest Utah, where an outbreak has simmered for weeks that also involves residents of Mohave County, Arizona.Southwest Utah now has 68 infections.Besides the Utah-Arizona outbreak, South Carolina continues to see an uptick in measles activity in the Upstate region, where exposures at two schools with low vaccination rates among the student body fueled an outbreak that began in September.Today the South Carolina Department of Health reported five new cases in Spartanburg County, which has been the epicenter of that state's measles activity. The new cases raise the state's total to 52 cases, 49 of which have been in Spartanburg County. "Two of the five cases are household members of known measles cases who were in quarantine. The other three are the result of as-yet unknown sources of transmission," the state said in an update. "The unidentified sources of the three new cases emphasizes the risk of ongoing community transmission in South Carolina.." Officials said there are currently 84 people in quarantine in South Carolina. "We remind people that the majority of cases thus far occurred among those in quarantine who became ill and spread measles to their household members. If those currently in quarantine join family gatherings during the Thanksgiving holiday, we may see many more cases during the Christmas holidays," state officials warned. In related news, the New York Times yesterday noted that Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) officials said on a phone call with state health officials that the United States could lose its measles elimination status in January.Though the West Texas measles outbreak that begin in January and resulted in nearly 750 infections was declared over in August, the strain that caused the outbreak has been seeded and is circulating in parts of the United States, which puts the elimination status at risk.Now, the Times is reporting that CDC officials publicly linked the measles strain seen in West Texas to the ongoing Utah-Arizona outbreak. Reporters from the newspaper obtained a recording of the call.Last week Canada lost its elimination status, which it achieved in 1998, after recording more than 5,000 cases. The United States achieved elimination in 2000. Currently the country has 1,723 measles cases, and 87% of confirmed cases are part of an outbreak.

US measles cases pass 1,750 as Utah-Arizona outbreak grows --- Today the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) reported 30 more measles cases across the country, raising the national total to 1,753 cases, of which 87% are outbreak-associated. Two-thirds of all cases this year have been in adolescents and children age 19 years and younger.Ninety-two percent of all cases have been in people who are unvaccinated or have unknown vaccine status. Four percent each of cases have been in people with one or two doses of the measles, mumps, and rubella (MMR) vaccine.So far there have been 211 hospitalizations in the United States this year for measles, or 12% of case-patients. Three deaths have been associated with measles.The largest current outbreak is along the Utah-Arizona border. Late yesterday Arizona health officials said there were nine more cases, for 137 total. Of the 137 cases, 133 are in Mohave County, where the outbreak is centered in Colorado City.Together Mohave County and southwestern Utah have 201 cases.Finally today, the Minnesota Star Tribune reported Minnesota now has one of the lowest MMR vaccination rates among incoming kindergartners, mostly de to nonmedical exemptions.Only 86.5% of Minnesota kindergartners are fully vaccinated against measles, well below the 95% threshold required for herd immunity. The lowest MMR vaccination rate in the United States is in Idaho, with 78.5%, followed by Alaska, Wisconsin, then Minnesota.

Texas measles outbreak may have spurred parents to vaccinate infants before CDC responded - Early uptake of the measles, mumps, and rubella (MMR) vaccine rose rapidly in Texas infants after the start of the state's measles outbreak in January, even before the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) urged vaccination for this age-group, researchers note in JAMA Network Open.

WHO warns of rising, worrisome levels of drug-resistant gonorrhea --New data released today by the World Health Organization (WHO) highlight rising levels of drug-resistant gonorrhea.The data from the WHO's Enhanced Gonococcal Antimicrobial Surveillance Program (ESGAP)report show that resistance to ceftriaxone and cefixime—the two antibiotics currently recommended for first-line treatment—rose from 0.8% to 5% and from 1.7% to 11%, respectively, from 2022 to 2024. Resistance to azithromycin, which is often used in combination with ceftriaxone and cefixime to ensure successful treatment, rose from 0.5% to 4%, while 95% of Neisseria gonorrhoeae isolates were resistant to ciprofloxacin.Rising resistant to ceftriaxone and cefixime are especially concerning given that the two antibiotics are the last remaining recommended treatment options for gonorrhea, a sexually transmitted infection (STI) that has quickly developed resistance to every antibiotic that's been used for treatment. But there's hope that two new antibiotics that have shown promise in clinical trials (zoliflodacin and gepotidacin) could soon provide more options. The ESGAP data come from 12 countries in five WHO regions. The included countries—Brazil, Cambodia, India, Indonesia, Malawi, the Philippines, Qatar, South Africa, Sweden, Thailand, Uganda, and Vietnam—reported 3,615 gonorrhea cases in 2024. The highest resistance rates were in Cambodia and Vietnam. Gonorrhea is one the four most common STIs globally, with an estimated 82 million cases every year. Because of the limited treatment options, the WHO has labeled drug-resistant gonorrhea a serious and urgent public health threat. If untreated, gonorrhea can cause pelvic inflammatory disease, ectopic pregnancy (implantation of a fertilized egg outside the uterus), and infertility in women.WHO officials say ESGAP data are critical to efforts to monitor the spread of drug-resistant gonorrhea. "WHO calls on all countries to address the rising levels of sexually transmitted infections (STIs) and integrate gonorrhoea surveillance into national STI programmesl," Tereza Kasaeva, MD, PhD, director of the WHO Department for HIV, TB, Hepatitis & STIs, said in a WHO press release.

New data show rising incidence of serious drug-resistant infections in Europe --Europe is seeing an increase in bloodstream infections (BSIs) caused by difficult-to-treat drug-resistant bacteria, according to data published this week by the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC).The data from the latest EARS-Net (European Antimicrobial Resistance Surveillance Network)report, which covers 30 European Union/European Economic Activity (EU/EEA) countries, show that the estimated total incidence of carbapenem-resistant Klebsiella pneumoniaeBSIs rose by 61% from 2019 (the baseline year) through 2024, while the incidence of third-generation cephalosporin-resistant Escherichia coliBSIs increased by 5.9%. The EU has set 2030 target reductions of 5% and 10% for the two pathogens, respectively, but ECDC says it appears unlikely those targets will be met.BSIs caused by other bug-drug combinations under EARS-Net surveillance also saw increases, including carbapenem-resistant E coli and vancomycin-resistant Enterococcus faecium. But one bright spot was that incidence of BSIs caused by methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus fell by 20.4% from 2019 levels. As with prior EARS-Net reports, higher rates of antimicrobial resistance (AMR) were reported by countries in southern, central, and eastern Europe. The ECDC estimates AMR causes more than 35,000 deaths a year in EU/EEA countries. The organization attributes the rise in difficult-to-treat infections to an aging and vulnerable population with chronic health issues, cross-border transmission of resistant pathogens, persistent high antibiotic use combined with gaps in infection prevention and control, and a shortage of novel antibiotics."Antimicrobial resistance is not just a medical issue—it's a societal one," Diamantas Plachouras, MD, PhD, head of the ECDC's Antimicrobial Resistance and Healthcare-Associated Infections division, said in a press release. "We must ensure that no one in Europe is left without an effective treatment option."

New test bests culture method by quickly detecting 3 fungal pathogens at once, researchers say -Researchers at Indiana University have announced that they developed a molecular test that can simultaneously detect three major disease-causing fungi much faster than traditional methods, speeding treatment.The research was presented at the recent Association for Molecular Pathology 2025 Annual Meeting and Expo in Boston.Histoplasmosis, blastomycosis, and coccidioidomycosis, which are often linked to contaminated soil, occur in different parts of the United States. Because they are often mistaken for other respiratory illnesses, correct diagnosis of the potentially life-threatening infections remains low, which delays treatment.The real-time polymerase chain reaction (PCR) test directly targets genetic regions unique to each fungus, bypassing the slow culture process that is complicated by the fungi’s ability to switch between environmental and human forms.Compared with standard methods, the PCR test identified all samples with 100% accuracy. In addition, it was 100% specific, meaning that it didn't mistakenly flag other fungi or contaminants.

Ethiopia faces its first Marburg outbreak, which has proved deadly -Ethiopia is facing its first Marburg virus outbreak, the country confirmed over the weekend, after reports began to circulate last week of cases of a viral hemorrhagic fever in the southern part of the country, according to an update late last week from the World Health Organization (WHO) Ethiopia.So far 17 suspected cases have been identified in the region of Jinka city in the south, and an additional 129 case contacts are being monitored. Today the Ethiopian Ministry of Health said three people have died.Nine cases have been confirmed. "Genetic analysis by the Ethiopia Public Health Institute revealed that the virus is of the same strain as the one that has been reported in previous outbreaks in other countries in East Africa," the WHO said. "A total of nine cases have been reported in the outbreak that has affected Jinka town in the South Ethiopia Region." Marburg virus is a severe and often deadly viral hemorrhagic fever. The virus belongs to the same family as Ebola virus, and both cause sudden high fevers, headache, and bleeding that begins about one week after symptom onset. The disease is typically transmitted to humans from fruit bats, and can be spread through contact with bodily fluids or contact with contaminated materials. Unlike Ebola, there is no vaccine against Marburg, which has an average case-fatality rate of 50%, with some outbreaks as high as 88%.

Marburg virus disease confirmed in Ethiopia amid regional instability -- The first documented outbreak of Marburg virus disease (MVD) in Ethiopia was confirmed this month in Jinka, a market town in the South Ethiopia Regional State that functions as a commercial hub with active cross-border movement from South Sudan and Kenya. A suspected case of viral hemorrhagic fever was initially reported to Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) on November 12, 2025. Ethiopia’s Ministry of Health confirmed MVD on November 14 following molecular testing at the Ethiopia Public Health Institute (EPHI). Sequencing indicated that the virus is genetically similar to previously identified East African strains. As of November 14, 2025, 9 cases had been identified among residents of Jinka. Local reports indicate that the index case died roughly two weeks before the outbreak was formally recognized, facilitating secondary transmission through close contact and traditional burial practices. Health officials reported 6 deaths—including a police officer, three religious leaders, and a banker—all linked to the initial case through contact tracing. Despite praise from the World Health Organization for the swift confirmation of the outbreak, the full extent remains uncertain. Ethiopian media reported that regional health officials were instructed not to disclose information, and woredas (district-level administrative units) and zones were advised against releasing updates. As a result, the true case count, death toll, and clinical outcomes remain only partially documented. The Marburg virus is a highly pathogenic RNA virus in the same family as Ebola virus. Its natural reservoir is the Egyptian fruit bat (Rousettus aegyptiacus). Human infection occurs through exposure to infected animals and subsequently through direct contact with bodily fluids, contaminated materials, or unsafe burial practices. Reported case fatality rates range from 24 to 90 percent, with an average of about 50 percent.

First ever human case of H5N5 avian flu confirmed in Washington state - The health department in Washington state has confirmed that a resident of Grays Harbor County is the first person to be diagnosed as having avian flu in the United States since February, and the first human ever known to be infected with the H5N5 strain.The person had underlying conditions, officials said. Previous human detections in the United States have involved the H5N1 strain, which infected thousands of cattle, as well as commercial poultry and wild birds, in the past two years. Most human cases involving H5N1 have been mild, but one man died in January in Louisiana. During a briefing over the weekend, the patient was described as an older person who is severely ill and remains hospitalized after developing a high fever, confusion, and difficulty breathing. "The affected person has a mixed backyard flock of domestic poultry at home that had exposure to wild birds. The domestic poultry or wild birds are the most likely source of virus exposure; however, public health investigation is ongoing," the health department said in a press release. "The Washington State Department of Health is working with the local health department and the Washington State Department of Agriculture to complete exposure and animal health investigations." So far, no other people in the state have been identified as having H5N5. Human-to-human transmission of avian flu has not been documented. Washington state has had dozens of detections of avian flu in wild birds, waterfowl, and backyard poultry in the past weeks, mirroring a national spike in activity.

Quick takes: Avian flu death in Cambodia, return of US FluView | CIDRAP

• The Cambodian Ministry of Health confirmed that a 22-year-old man from Phnom Penh has died from avian flu, according to a Ministry of Health statement translated by Avian Flu Diary, an infectious disease blog. This is the 18th case of human H5N1 in Cambodia this year, and officials have not yet been able to determine the source of exposure. The latest human cases in Cambodia have involved a reassortant (2.3.2.1e) between an older H5N1 clade that has circulated in Cambodia since 2014 and the newer clade 2.3.4.4b virus that is circulating globally.
• The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has published its first weekly FluView update since September 26, showing that seasonal influenza activity is low nationally but is increasing. Of the 72 influenza viruses reported by public health laboratories, 67 were influenza A and five were influenza B. Of the 53 influenza A viruses subtyped, 38 (71.7%) were the H3N2 strain. H3N2 has dominated the early flu season in Japan and the United Kingdom.

Indiana tracks more avian flu outbreaks in poultry - The latest update from the US Department of Agriculture's Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS) notes that more Indiana poultry farms have been hit with highly pathogenic H5N1 avian flu. The largest outbreak involved a poultry operation in Elkhart County with 48,800 birds. And four more facilities in LaGrange County reported activity, including a commercial duck breeder with 14,700 birds. The other affected farms housed flocks of 10,500, 19,500, and 25,600 poultry. LaGrange County has been a hotbed of avian flu activity this month, with more than 20 detections, many in large commercial duck facilities. Indiana is the leading duck producer in the country. APHIS also reported detections in smaller, backyard poultry flocks in Grady and McClain counties in Oklahoma, Washington state, and Oregon. H5N1 detections have risen sharply this fall, as wild birds spread the virus during their migration. Over the past 30 days, 83 confirmed flocks (36 commercial and 47 backyard) have been hit by H5N1 outbreaks, and 1.82 million birds have been affected.

More Indiana poultry operations hit with avian flu -- Today the US Department of Agriculture's Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS) reported four more highly pathogenic avian flu outbreaks on Indiana poultry operations. Indiana is currently the epicenter of avian flu activity.A commercial duck breeder in Elkhart County reported the virus was detected in an operation with 5,000 birds. And LaGrange County reported that another affected commercial duck meat facility with 5,500 birds was hit.Also in LaGrange County, two poultry farms with 28,300 and 8,700 birds, respectively, had confirmed outbreaks. Over the past week there have been hundreds of detections in US wild birds per APHIS updates. In Grant County, Washington, American wigeons and mallards that had been hunter harvested have been affected. And in Indiana dozens of hunter-harvested wild birds in Greene, LaPorte, and Newton counties tested positive for avian flu virus.H5N1 avian flu activity is currently high, as wild birds spread the virus during their migration. Over the past 30 days, 88 flocks (38 commercial and 50 backyard) have been confirmed to be hit by avian flu outbreaks, and 1.88 million birds have been affected.

Deadly horse virus threatens North Texas herds after outbreak south of Fort Worth - The Texas Department of Agriculture is warning horse owners to take precautions with their herds after an outbreak of a deadly virus after an event in Waco last week. At least 18 equestrian events in North Texas and beyond have been canceled to control the spread of Equine Herpesvirus type 1, including at the Fort Worth Stockyards. Visit Fort Worth, which manages the Stockyards' herd of cattle, said the twice-daily cattle drives on East Exchange Avenue for tourists will "pause" starting Nov. 20 until Nov. 28. It's unclear how many horses in Texas have died as a result of the viral outbreak. "This pause is out of an abundance of caution following reports of Equine Herpesvirus (EHV-1) cases that could affect the health of horses," a Visit Fort Worth spokesperson said. "EHV-1 does not pose a health risk to humans or our longhorn steers. At this time, we have no cases of this virus reported within the Herd. This pause allows our veterinary partners to complete monitoring protocols and ensure the continued well-being of our animals." It wasn't immediately clear whether other Fort Worth events will be canceled, including rodeos at the Stockyards' Cowtown Coliseum. Agriculture Commissioner Sid Miller said in a statement Wednesday that horses that returned from any equine gathering in the Waco area in the last 14 days should be monitored. According to the Texas Animal Health Commission, EHV-1 can cause respiratory disease, abortion and neonatal death. The neurological disease causes damage to blood vessels in the brain and spinal cord.It is a neurological disease in horses linked to the Equine Herpesvirus. The disease can spread horse-to-horse through contact from nose to nose, short-distance aerosol transmission, contaminated hands, equipment, tack and feed. "I'm asking every local horse rider, roper, trainer, and breeder to do their part today," Miller said in the press release. "Check your horses twice a day, isolate any exposed animals, tighten up your biosecurity and call your vet the moment something looks off."phys.org

CWD hits another Richland County, Wisconsin, deer farm - A 3-year-old buck on a Richland County, Wisconsin, deer farm has tested positive for chronic wasting disease (CWD), the Wisconsin Department of Agriculture, Trade and Consumer Protection (DATCP) announced yesterday. The positive result was confirmed by the National Veterinary Services Laboratories in Ames, Iowa. The farm is now quarantined while the DATCP and US Department of Agriculture conduct an epidemiologic investigation. Richland County is located in the southwestern part of the state, which is endemic for CWD in free-ranging deer, per the Wisconsin Department of Resources. This detection is not the first on a deer farm in Richland County, DATCP data show. Previous detections occurred in 2014 (eight CWD-positive deer) and 2018 (one). CWD is a fatal, neurodegenerative disease of cervids such as deer, elk, and moose caused by misfolded infectious proteins called prions, which spread from deer to deer and through environmental contamination. CWD falls under the umbrella of transmissible spongiform encephalopathies, which also include prion diseases such as bovine spongiform encephalopathy ("mad cow" disease) in cattle, scrapie in sheep, and Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease in people.

CWD encroaches on northeastern North Carolina with detection in Edgecombe County -Chronic wasting disease (CWD) has been found in northeastern North Carolina for the first time with the discovery of an infected white-tailed buck in Edgecombe County, 92 miles from the nearest previous detection, in Cumberland County.The North Carolina Wildlife Resources Commission (NCWRC) said in a press release that the 3.5-year-old deer was harvested by a hunter in the eastern corner of Edgecombe County, a few miles from its border with Pitt and Martin counties. "We are certainly not happy to learn that we may have a new CWD infected area in the northeastern part of the state," Chris Kreh, Game and Furbearer Program assistant chief, said in a news release on the preliminary test result earlier this month. "However, this is what our surveillance plan is designed to do—find areas where CWD is occurring, as early as possible, so we can minimize its impact."The case is North Carolina's 35th since CWD was first detected in the state in 2022. Over the past 4 years, NCWRC has tested samples from nearly 3,000 deer in Edgecombe and neighboring counties.CWD is a neurologic disease that kills cervids such as deer, elk, and moose. It's caused by infectious misfolded proteins called prions, which are transmitted from animal to animal and through environmental contamination. "Deer may appear healthy during early stages of infection, therefore, NCWRC stresses to hunters the importance of taking precautions when transporting or disposing of deer carcasses; improper disposal may lead to moving CWD to new locations," the release said.

2 more Wyoming deer hunt areas confirmed as CWD-positive The Wyoming Game and Fish Department (WGFD) yesterday announced first-time chronic wasting disease (CWD) detections in two more deer hunt areas: 106 and 150.In Deer Hunt Area 106, in the Cody Region, a hunter harvested a mule deer buck that was part of the Clark’s Fork mule deer herd, in which CWD was first detected in 2019. Cody is located in the northwestern part of Wyoming and serves as the eastern gateway to Yellowstone National Park.The hunt area abuts four other CWD-positive deer hunt areas: 105 (detected in 2019), 110 (2016), 111 (2016), and Yellowstone National Park (2023).The case in Deer Hunt Area 150, in the Jackson region, was in a white-tailed buck that was part of the Sublette mule deer herd. Located in the northwestern corner of Wyoming, Jackson serves as a gateway to both Grand Teton and Yellowstone National parks. This area borders two other CWD-positive deer hunt areas: 152 (detected in 2019) and 155 (2022). The Sublette mule deer herd first tested positive in 2017. A fatal neurodegenerative disease of cervids such as deer, elk, and moose, CWD is caused by infectious misfolded proteins called prions that spread from animal to animal and through the environment. While it isn't known to infect people, health authorities recommend against consuming the meat of a sick or infected animal and urge caution when handling their carcasses. (See today's CIDRAP News in-depth story.)

2 deer infected on Texas farm linked to CWD-testing violations, deer smuggling - Two white-tailed deer at a Texas breeding facility linked to a recently uncovered deer-smuggling operation have tested positive for chronic wasting disease (CWD), an illness wildlife laws aim to prevent, the Texas Parks and Wildlife Department (TPWD) reported yesterday. The detections were the first for Tom Green County, in west-central Texas. The farm is owned by Ken Schlaudt, 64, of San Antonio. "The facility is one of several linked to the recent 'Ghost Deer' investigation, in which Texas Game Wardens uncovered widespread, coordinated deer-breeding violations," TPWD said. Some of the infractions were smuggling captive and free-range deer between farms and ranches; CWD testing and license violations; and misdemeanor and felony drug charges related to controlled sedatives. CWD is a fatal neurologic disease that infects cervids such as deer and elk."These intentional acts jeopardize the health and wellbeing of every deer in the state by circumventing the laws in place to prevent the spread of CWD," Col. Ronald VanderRoest, TPWD law enforcement director, said in the news release.The department noted that proper transfer permit procedures include CWD testing before transferring deer between facilities. The law also requires the submission of identification, movement, and testing records to Texas Wildlife Information Management Services. "Due to several violations linked to this facility during the investigation, including felony tampering with governmental records and violation of disease monitoring protocols that increased the risk of spreading CWD to other parts of the state, all deer at Schlaudt's facility were removed and submitted for disease testing," TPWD said. "Due to negligent recordkeeping and intentional testing violations associated with Schlaudt's facility, it is unknown exactly how many CWD-exposed deer have been moved or what other ranches and facilities across the state may be affected," it added. The investigation began in 2024 after wardens discovered violations during a Montgomery County traffic stop, eventually revealing one of the largest deer-smuggling networks in state history and the filing of about 1,400 charges against 24 people in 11 counties.

While no one was watching: Tenuous status of CDC prion unit, risk of CWD to people worry scientists -- Nine months ago, Janie Johnston, 73, left her home in the Chicago suburbs to drive to her doctor's office for routine care. She made it as far as the side of the street opposite the clinic but couldn't figure out how to get there, so she returned home, where she struggled to remember the abbreviation "GPS." That was the first sign that something was seriously wrong. Soon, the semi-retired geologist couldn't speak in full sentences or feed herself. Within 2 months, the woman who had been reviewing proposals for the National Science Foundation in the weeks leading up to symptom onset was dead of a terrifying neurological disease her family had never heard of: Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease (CJD). Rather than being genetic or acquired, Johnston's CJD developed when normal prions in her brain spontaneously began misfolding. The abnormal prions accumulated rather than being shed, triggering confusion and fatigue that doctors initially mistook for stroke, meningitis, or alcohol withdrawal. The disease usually occurs in older adults. While no one is certain, experts think that another always-fatal prion disease—this one currently known to occur only in cervids such as deer, moose, and elk—may behave the same way if it should jump the species barrier and infect people. Chronic wasting disease (CWD) has been decimating cervid populations throughout North America since it was first diagnosed in a captive Colorado mule deer in 1967. While mitigation measures such as hunting may help slow its spread, it can't be stopped. This is because cervids are ubiquitous and free ranging, the interval from infection to symptom onset can take years, and prions spread easily from animal to animal and through environmental contamination, which can persist for years. But the frightening thing is that, for well over a month during the recent US government shutdown, no one was watching the human disease landscape for CWD, a highly infectious disease with no treatment or cure. Nine days after the government shutdown began, all four staff members of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's (CDC's) National Center for Emerging and Zoonotic Infectious Diseases Prion and Public Health Office were sent home after receiving reduction-in-force (RIF) notices. While the end of the shutdown led all four to be reinstated through at least January, layoffs after that time are possible. Within the past few months, two other researchers who had been part of the team also had to be let go after their fellowship contracts weren't renewed, per the administration's policy of blocking contract renewals. The prion unit, which monitors the nation for human prion diseases, is part of the Division of High-Consequence Pathogens and Pathology. It launched in the mid-1990s in response to the outbreak of bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE, or "mad cow disease") in UK cattle. BSE prions were inadvertently consumed by people who ate contaminated beef, causing the human form of BSE, variant CJD (vCJD). All infected people—more than 230—died. The initial goal of the Prion and Public Health Office was to watch for any cases of vCJD in the US population. Since then, its focus has expanded to include advising hospitals on how to prevent and respond to prion contamination of instruments used in neurosurgery (prions are resistant to many usual sterilization methods), as well as working with state health departments on disease surveillance. Unit members also answer questions from the public. Today, as CWD continues its inexorable march across the landscape, exposing more and more people, the prion unit's priority is conducting surveillance for signs of a CWD species jump into high-risk people such as hunters. Without this expertise, no one will be able to evaluate whether a suspected case of CWD prion transmission to humans is likely from an animal.

Ohioans could vote on 'a right to hunt and fish' in 2026 (WCMH) — Ohio lawmakers are weighing a proposal that could add a constitutional right to hunt and fish, a measure supporters say would preserve part of the state’s economy and heritage. Senate Joint Resolution 8, introduced in October by state Sen. Steve Huffman (R-Tipp City), seeks to amend the Ohio Constitution to recognize hunting and fishing as fundamental rights. If approved by three-fifths of both legislative chambers, the proposal would appear on the November 2026 statewide ballot. Under the resolution, a new Section 23 would be added to Article I of the Ohio Constitution, declaring that “the right to hunt, fish and harvest wildlife is a valued part of Ohio’s heritage and shall be forever preserved for the public good.” The measure specifies that those activities “shall be a preferred means of managing and controlling wildlife,” and that any regulation of them must come from the General Assembly or agencies acting under its authority. These are the hemp products that could be banned by Congress Huffman told members of the Senate General Government Committee during the resolution’s first hearing on Nov. 4 that hunting and fishing are vital to both the state’s economy and its rural traditions. “Hunting and fishing are core parts of Ohio’s heritage and economy, contributing more than $1.9 billion annually, and supporting 12,000 jobs just last year,” Huffman said in his testimony. “Hunting and fishing also attract visitors from across the nation. Last season, hunters from all 50 states bought nonresident licenses, including nearly 8,000 from Pennsylvania.” The senator noted that the proposal mirrors constitutional amendments adopted in other states. Since 1996, roughly two dozen states have approved similar measures, most recently Florida in 2024, Huffman said. These states are following the lead of Vermont, which, in 1777, enshrined the right to hunt and fish in their state constitution.

Microplastics detected in 100% of donkey feces: Study links plastic pollution to animal deaths and food risks -- A study by the University of Portsmouth has revealed for the first time the extent of the devastating impact of plastic pollution on livestock, humans and the wider environment on the Kenyan island of Lamu. The study, published in the journal Cambridge Prisms: Plastics, was carried out by members of the Revolution Plastics Institute at the University of Portsmouth, in collaboration with The Donkey Sanctuary, The Flop Flopi Project and the Kenyan Marine and Fisheries Research Institute. Until now, the impact of plastic waste on terrestrial working animals has been largely overlooked with most of the focus being on marine animals. Professor Cressida Bowyer, deputy director of the Revolution Plastics Institute at the University of Portsmouth explains, "Most plastic pollution originates on land, yet its impacts on land-based animals remain chronically understudied. Our findings show how urgently this knowledge gap needs to be addressed." Researchers took a multi-disciplinary approach, quantifying the amount of microplastics in donkey and cattle feces, observing their natural feeding behavior and surveying residents and visitors to understand their attitudes towards plastic pollution and donkey welfare. Alarmingly, they found microplastics in 100% of donkey (and cattle) fecal samples analyzed. Vets at The Donkey Sanctuary's clinic in Lamu have long been calling for action due to the volume of donkey fatalities they see each year caused by plastic-induced colic, however this is the first published evidence of its complete and widespread impact. In 2024, a total of 108 cases of colic were seen at the clinic, an average of eight donkeys per month, with 14 of those subsequent fatalities. So far, in 2025, numbers are similar; clinic vets have seen 91 donkeys with colic, of which 16 have died. Half of donkey owners surveyed admitted that, with fluctuating feed prices, they could not consistently provide enough food for their animals, who instead were left to roam in search of some. Analyzing the animal foraging behaviors primarily at waste sites and in rural areas, researchers found at least one in every 10–20 items ingested was plastic. As well as posing a serious risk to donkeys and livestock, a major food security concern is the potential for microplastic transfer to humans through consumption of contaminated animal products or crops fertilized with animal manure containing tiny plastic particles. Microplastics in humans has been linked to inflammation, cancer, reproductive disorders and other serious health issues. Free-roaming donkeys are both culturally significant and a major tourist attraction on Lamu, and yet a lack of grass or edible vegetation is forcing many to forage for food at waste sites. Rather than restricting the movement of donkeys, researchers and residents are calling for community clean-ups, better waste disposal systems, and government investment in recycling and plastic alternatives.

Trump team proposes big changes in ESA rules - The Trump administration on Wednesday launched a long-awaited and far-reaching bid to change how the Endangered Species Act works, with an ambitious set of regulatory proposals longed for by conservatives and loathed by environmentalists.The proposals would govern how the Fish and Wildlife Service and NOAA Fisheries handle their most important ESA tasks, from designating critical habitat to setting protection standards for threatened species. If made final, they would reverse myriad regulations set during the Biden administration and restore rules from President Donald Trump’s first term.“This administration is restoring the Endangered Species Act to its original intent, protecting species through clear, consistent and lawful standards that also respect the livelihoods of Americans who depend on our land and resources,” Interior Secretary Doug Burgum said in a statement. Burgum added that the proposed revisions “end years of legal confusion and regulatory overreach, delivering certainty to states, tribes, landowners and businesses” while still protecting vulnerable species and habitat. The package released Wednesday is part of a broader Trump administration effort to revamp implementation of the Endangered Species Act, such as a proposal earlier this year to shrink the definition of “harm” as it is applied to a listed species. FWS and NOAA Fisheries suggested removing habitat modification from counting as harm to an animal or plant protected by the law. With environmental organizations quickly mobilizing to oppose the rule changes, there will be months, if not years, of robust public commentary and likely lots of litigation ahead. The Biden administration’s rule changes that Trump intends to replace were finalized in April 2024 after federal agencies reported receiving more than 146,000 public comments. “Trump’s proposals are a death sentence for wolverines, monarch butterflies, Florida manatees and so many other animals and plants that desperately need our help,” said Stephanie Kurose, deputy director of government affairs at the Center for Biological Diversity. Kurose added that “Americans overwhelmingly support the Endangered Species Act and want to see it strengthened, not sledgehammered.” The proposed regulatory changes released Wednesday include:

• Removing Biden-era rule language that specified ESA listing decisions must be made “without reference to possible economic or other impacts of such determination.” While the law will still require that listings be made solely on the basis of the best scientific and commercial data available, removing the “without reference” language will allow for cost-and-benefit studies to be conducted for the public to consider.
• Removing the Fish and Wildlife Service’s use of a “blanket 4(d) rule” that automatically gives all threatened species the same strict level of protection as species designated as endangered. Under the Trump administration proposal, every threatened species would have a tailored protection plan that could allow for specified exceptions to the ESA ban on harming listed species.
• Revising the factors taken into account when an agency designates critical habitat. The proposal highlights an assortment of national security and economic impact categories that could keep an area from being designated as critical habitat.
• Removing a Biden-era rule that allowed FWS to compel a project proponent to “offset” and not simply mitigate impacts to listed species’ habitat.

Cleveland's famous sea monster gets a scientific update --About 360 million years ago, the shallow sea above present-day Cleveland was home to a fearsome apex predator: Dunkleosteus terrelli. This 14-foot armored fish ruled the Late Devonian seas with razor-sharp bone blades instead of teeth, making it among the largest and most ferocious arthrodires—an extinct group of shark-like fishes covered in bony armor across their head and torso. Since its discovery in the 1860s, Dunkleosteus has captivated scientists and the public alike, becoming one of the most recognizable prehistoric animals. Casts of its bony-plated skull and imposing mouthparts can be seen on display in museums around the world. Despite its fame, this ancient predator has remained scientifically neglected for nearly a century.Now an international team of researchers led by Case Western Reserve University has published a detailed study of Dunkleosteus in The Anatomical Record, revealing a new understanding of the ancient armored predator. Dunkleosteus likely lived around the world during the Devonian period, but conditions in Cleveland allowed for a bonanza of skeletal remains to be preserved in the ancient seafloor, now a layer of black shale rock exposed by area rivers and road construction projects. The researchers' detailed anatomical analysis revealed several unexpected findings:

• A cartilage-heavy skull: Nearly half of Dunkleosteus' skull was composed of cartilage, including most major jaw connections and muscle attachment sites—far more than previously assumed.
• Shark-like jaw muscles: The team identified a large bony channel housing a facial jaw muscle similar to those in modern sharks and rays, providing some of the best evidence for this feature in ancient fishes.
• An evolutionary oddball: Despite being the poster child for arthrodires, Dunkleosteus was unusual among its relatives. Most arthrodires had actual teeth, which Dunkleosteus and its close relatives lost in favor of their iconic bone blades.

Perhaps most importantly, the study places Dunkleosteus in a proper evolutionary context. The bone-blade specializations of Dunkleosteus and its relatives reflect increasing adaptation for hunting other large fishes—features that evolved independently in other arthrodire groups as well. The blades allowed these predators to bite chunks out of large prey, Engelman explained. "These discoveries highlight that arthrodires cannot be thought of as primitive, homogeneous animals, but instead a highly diverse group of fishes that flourished and occupied many different ecological roles during their history,"

Australia's algal bloom catastrophe has left more than 87,000 animals dead. What will happen this summer? - An underwater bloom of toxic algae has wreaked havoc off the coast of South Australia since mid-March 2025. After eight months, this harmful algal bloom is the longest and one of the most environmentally devastating events ever recorded in Australian waters.The algal bloom is predominantly in Gulf St. Vincent and has affected 30% of South Australia's coastline.The bloom has affected more than 390 species, with more than 87,000 dead animals reported to theiNaturalist database. There is still no end in sight for this environmental disaster. It's impossible to know exactly what might happen to this vast toxic bloom this summer, as the ocean heats up. But we have models and scientific knowledge to guide our predictionsThe algal bloom has led to troubling times in South Australia. The commercial and recreational fishing sectors, tourist industry, the public and even politicians have suffered from its detrimental effects.The algal bloom saga is full of surprise twists and turns, including the initial identification of the algae asKarenia mikimotoi, government speculation about its causes (frequently aired in television ads), and theresignation of South Australia's Environment Minister Susan Close. This was followed by a statement from South Australia's Premier, Peter Malinauskas, that the algal bloom was not toxic (it is). Then came the dangerous relocation of algae-affected oysters that could have introduced the algae to other pristine waters. The saga continued, with Malinauskas announcing in late October that the algal bloom may eventually disappear, which turned out to be overly optimistic and incorrect. Then came the recent discovery of a novel brevetoxin-producing species, K. cristata that appears to have dominated the algal bloom since July. Recently, the algal bloom reappeared near Victor Harbor, while theworst fish kill since the bloom started occurred along Adelaide's beaches. There have been federal and state senate inquiries into the algal bloom, and now important research on the algal bloom won't be able to continue as six researchers in this space, including myself, have lost their positions at Flinders University in a restructure. From the beginning, state authorities were optimistic about the algal bloom. They said storms and colder waters would make it soon disappear and downplayed potential public health impacts, claiming the algae did not produce a toxin. The release of my modeling was a turning point. In the worst-case scenario, the model predicted the algal bloom would initially weaken and shrink over the cooler winter months but intensify and affect new areas, including Spencer Gulf, the following summer. Shauna Murray, a marine biologist at the University of Technology Sydney, and her colleagues eventuallyunraveled several Karenia species that were previously prematurely grouped as K. mikimotoi. This discovery, which was made public in a pre-print article that has not yet been peer-reviewed, was another significant game changer for two reasons.First, unlike K. mikimotoi, three species in the mix of algae—K. cristata, K. brevisulacata and K. papilionacea—produce toxins that affect human health. These include brevetoxins, which cause illness.For instance, K. brevisulcata featured in a devastating toxic algal bloom in Wellington Harbor, New Zealand, in 1998. It caused long-term ecological damage and respiratory distress in harbor bystanders.The growth characteristics of these species may also differ from that of K. mikimotoi. Unlike K. mikimotoi, K. cristata may grow better in colder water, which could extend the life of the algal bloom mix.Cell counts of Karenia species are published on the state government's algal bloom water testing open data dashboard. Over the entire measurement period, K. cristata, which dominates the algal bloom mix, showed very high concentrations of several million cells per liter in Gulf St. Vincent.Such high algal concentrations are different to my modeling predictions. Based on the growth characteristics of K. mikimotoi, these suggest a decrease in algal levels over the winter months.In comparison, Spencer Gulf and the northwest marine region had low toxic algal concentrations during the entire period, which my model predicted. Relatively high levels (>100,000 cells per liter) near the Arno Bay jetty, which could be due to human influences rather than current, are still concerning.Recent declines in algal cell counts of K. cristata along South Australian metropolitan beaches gave the state government a new reason to believe the algal bloom may eventually disappear. But could this be false hope?It is not possible to predict the future development of a toxic algal bloom in South Australian waters with any certainty. However, it seems the worst-case scenario of my predictions still holds. This suggests the algal bloom will remain a permanent feature of the two gulfs for many years.

Senate panel plans review of ‘forever chemicals’ cleanups - The Senate Environment and Public Works Committee is set to examine “forever chemicals” cleanup and disposal policies, as pressure mounts on Congress to reach consensus on solutions to thorny liability questions. It’s the first congressional hearing focused on PFAS cleanups since the Trump administration revealed it would keep a Biden-era rule that designated two of the chemical family’s most notorious compounds — PFOA and PFOS — as hazardous under the federal Superfund law. That designation gives EPA the authority to make polluters pay the costs to remediate contaminated sites — a principle with overwhelming bipartisan support but is complicated in practice. EPA has signaled it intends to only go after PFAS manufacturers. However, local governments, water utilities, farmers, landfill operators and other entities that don’t create the chemicals but must deal with the contamination — known as “passive receivers” — could still get dragged into years of expensive legal battles by polluting companies looking to share the blame.

Zeldin touts ‘limitless’ potential for chemical recycling -EPA Administrator Lee Zeldin has signaled support for continued development of “chemical” or “advanced” recycling technologies that can process hard-to-recycle plastics.“The capital investment seems to be extraordinary and the future potential here seems to be limitless,” Zeldin said in a video Exxon Mobil released Monday from his September tour of the oil giant’s chemical plant in Baytown, Texas. Zeldin’s comments are some of his first public remarks on the issue. “It’s very eye-opening being here at this Exxon Mobil site where you’re seeing a proof of concept on advanced recycling get developed in a way that may inspire other cities and really this entire country,” Zeldin said in the video.

Trump proposes to narrow Clean Water Act protections - The Trump administration is proposing to narrow which bodies of water qualify for Clean Water Act protections. The administration proposed a new definition for what counts as a “water of the United States” and is therefore subject to federal pollution regulations under the Clean Water Act. The issue is a controversial one – with developers, farmers and others calling for including fewer bodies of water to make it easier for them to operate. However environmental activists argue that more bodies of water deserve protection in order to prevent pollution, pollution that can flow to important waters. “There will be less that will be regulated by the federal government,” Environmental Protection Agency administrator Lee Zeldin told reporters. Waters of the U.S. require permits for pollution, as well as activities like filling and dredging. Those that are not may not require permits. In general, large, permanent bodies of water like oceans and lakes are considered waters of the U.S., but wetlands and streams have been more contentious. The rule proposed on Monday narrows the scope of the protections by excluding groundwater and also would not automatically provide protections to interstate waters. EPA assistant administrator Jessica Kramer also told reporters that under the proposed rule, ephemeral streams – those that only flow briefly after rain or snowfall – would not be eligible for protections.

Trump plan waives protection at +80% of wetlands - The Trump administration has proposed dramatic new standards under the Clean Water Act that would leave scores of wetlands and small streams more vulnerable to pollution. Just 19 percent of wetlands by acreage — about 17,360,970 acres — in the contiguous U.S that have been mapped by the federal government would be protected under the sweeping draft “waters of the U.S.” definition unveiled Monday. That’s according to an estimate in a regulatory impact analysis conducted by EPA and the Army Corps of Engineers and released alongside the proposed rule. Trump administration officials said the proposal conforms with Sackett v. EPA, a 2023 Supreme Court ruling that asserted that only wetlands that directly touched a relatively permanent waterway – like a river or lake – fell under the scope of the Clean Water Act and the regulatory powers of the federal government. But the administration proposed a more restrictive interpretation of the ruling than the Biden administration did. In addition to having a physical surface connection to waterway, wetlands would need to contain “surface water” at least for the duration of the “wet season” to be considered a WOTUS, the proposal said. “It’s probably the most limiting, the most narrow, interpretation of the reach of jurisdiction that I’ve seen so far,” The effects of the proposal would differ depending on the state. In Arizona, for example, only 2.4 percent of wetlands would likely be “wet” enough to be regulated by the Clean Water Act, the agencies estimated. In Iowa, about 5 percent of wetlands would be covered by the law. About half of states do not have state-level policies to protect or regulate wetlands and rely on the federal Clean Water Act to do so. The proposed rule fulfills many of the requests of energy and business groups with respect to the WOTUS definition. For example, it clearly defines terms that the Supreme Court included in Sackett, such as “continuous surface connection” and “relatively permanent water,” a step the Biden administration largely did on a case-by-case and context-specific basis. EPA and the Army Corps did not quantify the cost savings and foregone benefits of the proposal, a step that is normally included in regulatory changes. The agencies said this was due to “uncertainties associated with the available data” and that they were open to suggestions about how to quantify costs and benefits in a final rule. Members of the public have 45 days to provide comments. EPA’s oversight of streams could also be affected by the changes, the agencies said. For example, streams will now need to have “a bed and banks” in order to fall under the Clean Water Act, the agencies’ analysis asserted. “While many tributaries under the baseline will have a bed and banks, some will not, and those streams would lose their jurisdictional status under the proposed rule,” the analysis continued.

Republicans heap praise on Clean Water Act plan - Republicans praised the Trump administration’s draft rewrite of a key Clean Water Act regulation, calling it a win for farmers, businesses, homebuilders and landowners who would see reduced permitting costs. About half a dozen Republican lawmakers attended an event at EPA headquarters Monday announcing the rollout of the new proposed “waters of the U.S.” definition. Democrats on Capitol Hill fired off statements condemning the proposal but it’s unclear what — if anything — they can do to halt it. Republicans described it as a welcome departure from the Biden administration’s approach and said it would rightfully return regulatory powers from the federal government to the states. “I’m confident that the rule will prioritize clean water while protecting farmers, ranchers, landowners and businesses alike,” said Rep. Gary Palmer (R-Ala.), chair of the Energy and Commerce Subcommittee on the Environment. Democrats called the proposal a blow to the nation’s water supplies, including the wetlands and streams that feed the drinking water sources for millions of Americans. Like Republicans, they are framing their position around costs. “This latest Trump administration action will increase costs on families by making clean drinking water harder to obtain, and cause lasting damage to our rivers, streams, lakes and wetlands,” said Reps. Rick Larsen (D-Wash.), ranking member of the House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee, and Frederica Wilson (D-Fla.), ranking member of the Subcommittee on Water Resources and Environment. Under the Clean Water Act, waters and wetlands cannot be filled in or polluted without a requisite permit from EPA or the Army Corps of Engineers. But the law applies only to “waters of the U.S.,” a term whose definition has changed five times since the mid-2000s and ping-ponged across presidential administrations. The proposal seeks to conform with a landmark 2023 Supreme Court ruling, Sackett v. EPA, which ruled that only wetlands with a “continuous surface connection” to a “relatively permanent” water were covered by the 1972 law. The Biden administration reluctantly amended its WOTUS regulation in response to that high court ruling. But industry groups and property rights advocates argued that the former administration’s approach wasn’t clear. The Transportation and Infrastructure Committee held a hearing last year highlighting those complaints, and Republicans have echoed the concerns. They appear satisfied with the new direction. “The proposed rule ensures that only wetlands with a true, continuous connection to jurisdictional waters fall under federal oversight,” said Sen. Shelley Moore Capito (R-W.Va.), who chairs the Senate Environment and Public Works Committee, in a statement. Sen. Kevin Cramer (R-N.D.), who chairs the Senate Environment and Public Works Subcommittee on Transportation and Infrastructure, said the rule would end the “whiplash” and closely follows the Clean Water Act and Sackett. EPA and the Army Corps estimated that about 73.5 million acres of wetlands — just over 80 percent of the total acreage — in the contiguous 48 states would not be covered by the Clean Water Act under the new definition. But the proposal’s effects on wetlands and streams could vary depending on the state, with arid states generally the most likely to see some waters lose federal jurisdiction.

Why Trump’s WOTUS pivot could unleash more mining - Mining companies seeking to dump dredge or fill material into nearby streams and waterways or dig up metals in sensitive headwaters will likely face fewer federal Clean Water Act restrictions under a proposal the Trump administration unveiled on Monday. A draft rule from EPA and the Army Corps of Engineers would scale back the number of waterways and wetlands that fall under the federal government’s jurisdiction, in some cases leaving mineral- and coal-rich states — many with weaker protections — in charge. In turn, fewer companies would be required to obtain permits under Sections 402 and 404 of the Clean Water Act before disposing of mining waste and byproducts into those waterways, said Mark Ryan, a former Clean Water Act attorney for EPA Region 10 who previously worked on mining projects. “It’s likely more mines will be freed from 404 permitting requirements,” Ryan said. The proposal marks significant regulatory shift that would likely to be amplified by President Donald Trump’s ongoing efforts to juice domestic mining of everything from copper in Arizona to coal in Appalachia. The administration has opened large swaths of public land to mining, fast-tracked permitting and even taken private equity stakes in companies to boost production. But Ryan emphasized that that the exact impact of the rule will hinge on how federal officials define “waters of the U.S.,” a prospect that remains murky given the language in the draft rule. Trump officials Monday told reporters that the proposal aligns with Sackett v. EPA, a 2023 Supreme Court ruling that asserted that only wetlands that directly touched a relatively permanent waterway — like a river or lake — fell under the scope of the Clean Water Act. But the agencies also added more restrictive language. Under the proposal, which is open to public comment for 45 days, wetlands must contain a “surface water” at least for the duration of the “wet season” to be federally protected. But what constitutes a “wet” season is unclear, and EPA in its proposal states that it intends to base its decision off metrics from the web-based water-budget interactive modeling program, or WebWIMP. “Farmer Joe is not going to have access to that model,” said Ryan. “EPA claims the rule is going to be easy to understand, but … they’re going to use a sophisticated model to figure out what a wet season is that that seems really at odds.” EPA Administrator Lee Zeldin on Monday acknowledged fewer waters will be regulated by the federal government. Just 19 percent of the wetlands in the contiguous U.S. that have been mapped by the federal government would fall under federal protection, according to a regulatory impact analysis. Yet Zeldin insisted the that those waters would still have oversight, and that the rule responded to landowners, farmers and ranchers across the country and aligns with the nation’s highest court.

Supreme Court seeks Trump admin’s views in Western water fight - --The Supreme Court wants to know where the Trump administration stands in a battle between Colorado and Nebraska over water from a river that flows between the two states. In a long list of orders issued Monday, the justices requested the solicitor general’s views on Nebraska’s plea for help from the high court in a challenge against Colorado for hampering the Cornhusker State’s effort to build a cross-border canal along the South Platte River. Nebraska sued Colorado in July, arguing that its neighbor is in violation of a 1923 compact that allows Nebraska to take nearly 65 million gallons of water per day during the irrigation season between April and mid-October, and larger volumes during the rest of the year. In its motion to the Supreme Court, Nebraska contends that Colorado, where about 70 percent of the state’s population lives in the South Platte River Basin, is overusing the waterway. Nebraska also claims its neighbor has frustrated its plans to claim Colorado lands to build a canal that would protect Nebraska’s share of the river’s flows.

Widespread arsenic contamination found in Myanmar’s Ayeyarwady Delta wells - Around 71 percent of wells in Myanmar’s Ayeyarwady Delta exceed World Health Organization (WHO) safe drinking water limits, placing up to 12 million people at risk of long-term arsenic exposure, a new study led by the University of Portsmouth finds. Travelers and residents relying on untreated well water may be exposed if they consume or use it for cooking. A large-scale study published in GeoHealth on November 19 reports that arsenic contamination in Myanmar’s Ayeyarwady Delta groundwater significantly exceeds international safety standards. The findings suggest that roughly 12 million people rely on wells with arsenic levels higher than those recommended by the World Health Organization (WHO). The research, led by the University of Portsmouth’s School of the Environment and Life Sciences, analyzed national data from nearly 124 000 wells across the delta. Their results show that 71 percent of wells surpass the WHO guideline of 10 micrograms per litre, while 8 percent exceed Myanmar’s national limit of 50 micrograms per litre. Although national standards classify most wells as safe, long-term exposure even to moderate levels of arsenic is associated with chronic health effects such as skin lesions, cardiovascular disease, and certain cancers. Arsenic concentrations were found to be highest in the mid-central regions of the Ayeyarwady Delta, where dense networks of streams and shallow surface depressions accumulate organic matter. This organic material is transported into the shallow aquifer system, promoting the chemical processes that release arsenic from sediment into groundwater. Areas with steeper slopes generally showed lower concentrations, likely due to faster water movement that prevents arsenic accumulation. The study combined water chemistry analyses from 81 sampling sites across a 170 km (105 miles) stretch of the delta with spatial modelling techniques to identify high-risk landscapes. The resulting predictive model highlights hotspot zones where systematic testing and safe-water interventions would be most effective. According to lead author Dr Mo Hoque of the University of Portsmouth, the results strengthen scientific understanding of how surface organic matter influences arsenic mobilization in deltaic aquifers. “Our study shows how organic matter from the land surface is transported into shallow aquifers, where it plays an important role in the conditions that allow arsenic to enter groundwater,” said Dr Hoque. “By examining the Ayeyarwady Delta as a whole, we provide the first comprehensive picture of arsenic distribution across the region.”

Thousands of US hazardous sites are at risk of flooding because of sea level rise, study finds -- If heat-trapping pollution from burning coal, oil and gas continues unchecked, thousands of hazardous sites across the United States risk being flooded from sea level rise by the turn of the century, posing serious health risks to nearby communities, according to a new study.Researchers identified 5,500 sites that store, emit or handle sewage, trash, oil, gas and other hazards that could face coastal flooding by 2100, with much of the risk already locked in due to past emissions. But more than half the sites are projected to face flood risk much sooner—as soon as 2050. Low-income, communities of color and other marginalized groups are the most at risk.With even moderate reductions to planet-warming emissions, researchers also determined that roughly 300 fewer sites would be at risk by the end of the century."Our goal with this analysis was to try to get ahead of the problem by looking far out into the future," said Lara J. Cushing, associate professor in the Department of Environmental Health Sciences at the University of California, Los Angeles who co-authored the paper published in the science journal Nature Communications."We do have time to respond and try to mitigate the risks and also increase resilience," she added, speaking at a media briefing Wednesday ahead of the study's release. The study was funded by the Environmental Protection Agency and builds on previous research from California.Climate change is driving and accelerating sea level rise. Glaciers and ice sheets are melting, and the sea's waters are expanding as they warm. In many places along the coastal U.S., sea level rise is accelerating faster than the global average because of things like erosion and land sinking from groundwater pumping, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

At least 6 dead, 5-year-old missing as powerful atmospheric river pounds California - YouTube videos - At least 6 fatalities have been reported as of Sunday, November 16, 2025, as a powerful atmospheric river continues to impact California. With heavy rainfall of up to 200 mm (8 inches) being forecast, authorities are preparing for the threat of flash floods, landslides, debris flows across the state. A strong atmospheric river is affecting California, producing heavy rainfall, rapid runoff, mountain snow and widespread flooding. At least 6 people have been confirmed dead as of Sunday, with several additional weather-related incidents under investigation. The system is driven by a concentrated plume of Pacific moisture lifting into the state. A father lost his life after trying to rescue his 5-year-old daughter from the ocean on Friday, November 14. The family was at Garrapata State Beach along Highway 1 in California when the child was pulled out by waves estimated between 4.5–6 m (15– 20 feet) high. The father tried to rescue his daughter, but the pair were swept out together, with the father holding his daughter’s hand. According to the Monterrey County Sheriff’s office, an off-duty State Parks Peace Officer/Lifeguard saw a family in distress and approached the scene. The mother was on the shore and attempted to reach out, but was also brought into the water in the process. She was able to make it back to shore on her own. The off-duty officer was able to reach the father and pull him to shore, where he administered CPR. Both the mother and father were taken to a local hospital, where the father was pronounced deceased, reported Fox Weather. This marks the first death caused by the weather system off California’s coast.The mother was listed in stable condition with signs of hypothermia. The 5-year-old child remains missing, and was last seen wearing a red shirt. The search is still ongoing. A 71-year-old man died in Northern California after his vehicle was swept off a flooded bridge, according to the California Highway Patrol. Off the Southern California coast, a wooden vessel believed to be carrying migrants capsized in rough, storm-driven seas, resulting in four deaths and four hospitalizations, reported Associated Press.Flooded roads, stranded vehicles and downed trees have been reported in multiple counties. Coastal Santa Barbara County recorded more than 100 mm (4 inches) of rainfall early Friday, with accumulations rising through the weekend. Forecast rainfall totals through Monday night are 75–200 mm (3–8 inches) in the hills and mountains of Southern California, with at least 25 mm (1 inch) expected in lower elevations. Snow is forecast above approximately 2 130 m (7 000 ft) in the Sierra Nevada, where winter travel hazards are likely. The highest rainfall rates and flood potential are expected from Sunday into early Monday as successive pulses of moisture reach saturated soils.

Wettest November on record in Santa Barbara as atmospheric rivers kill 7 in California - (3 YouTube videos) Santa Barbara recorded 169.5 mm (6.67 inches) of rain over a three-day period ending November 17 2025, setting a new rainfall record for the county. The series of atmospheric rivers that brought the record rainfall ca A powerful AR dropped 169.5 mm (6.67 inches) of rain over Santa Barbara over a three-day period ending November 17. This broke the previous three-day total November record of 144 mm (5.66 inches) set in 2002, making November 2025 the wettest ever for the Santa Barbara Airport. The storm triggered widespread flooding, downed trees, and mud-covered roadways as it moved slowly along the coast and maintained a direct moisture connection to the central Pacific. The downpour was so heavy because it pulled in moisture all the way from Hawaii as it rotated, said Bryan Lewis, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service (NWS) in Oxnard to the LA Times. As the storm stalled offshore, southerly winds pushed the moisture band directly against the Santa Ynez Mountains. The nearly perpendicular orientation enhanced orographic lift, intensifying precipitation over the coastal slopes and foothills. This type of setup tends to happen later in the winter and is not typical for this time of year, Lewis said. At least 7 fatalities have been confirmed so far due to ARs in California over the last week, including a 39-year-old father and his 5-year-old daughter who drowned in Carmel on November 14. The girl who was initially reported missing was found later on November 16, when she was found around 92 m (302 feet) offshore and about 0.8 km (0.5 miles) north of her last known location, according to the Monterey County Sheriff’s Office.. Officials in Santa Barbara reported a roughly 50% increase in emergency-response calls during the peak of the event, particularly late on November 15, when about 12 calls for service were recorded in a 15-minute window as low-lying areas flooded. Saturated ground conditions contributed to rapid runoff, stalling at least six vehicles at flooded intersections, including Salispuedes and Cota streets and Cacique and Nopalitos streets. Mud and debris reached roadways such as West Mountain Drive and Cliff Drive at La Marina, and flooding forced temporary closures at the Mission Street underpass and off-ramps along U.S. 101. No serious injuries were reported within the city of Santa Barbara. YouTube video Counties from Ventura to Los Angeles recorded flooding, rockslides and debris-flow concerns, particularly in burn-scar areas where hydrophobic soils can accelerate runoff. Coastal zones reported elevated turbidity and storm-driven runoff at river mouths and beaches. Several rainfall records from the 1960s were reportedly broken across the Southland due to the AR.

At least 11 dead and 12 missing after a landslide in Central Java, Indonesia - At least 11 people were killed and 12 remain missing after a rain-triggered landslide struck Cibeunying village in Cilacap Regency, Central Java, on Friday, November 14, 2025. Local authorities reported that 12 homes in the Cibuyut Hamlet and 16 in the Tarukahan Hamlet were buried under 3–8 m (10–25 feet) of debris. The landslide occurred during ongoing wet-season rainfall in parts of Java. Search-and-rescue teams deployed by the regional disaster-management agency continue to work through unstable ground conditions to reach the buried structures. Excavators are being used along with hand tools in order to conduct rescue operations. Steep slopes and deep material deposits continue to hinder the rescues efforts. Saturated soil layers continue to shift in the area, threatening further slope failures, adding to the risk for responders. Cilacap Regency is located in a zone where rainfall-driven landslides are common during Indonesia’s wet season, which typically lasts from September through April. The region’s combination of steep terrain, intense rainfall and clay-rich soils increases susceptibility to rapid slope movement during prolonged precipitation.

More than 300 dead and 189 000 affected as floods and landslides hit northern and central Vietnam -Heavy rainfall brought by multiple tropical cyclones and monsoon interactions affected northern and central Vietnam from October through mid-November 2025, triggering flooding and landslides that killed at least 300 people and affected around 189 000. Vietnam activated the Union Civil Protection Mechanism on November 13 to request emergency assistance, while rainfall totals of up to 500 mm (20 inches) were forecast through November 20, maintaining high risks of renewed flooding and landslides. A sequence of late-season tropical systems and monsoon interactions produced prolonged rainfall across large parts of Vietnam beginning in early October. Typhoons Kalmaegi and Fengshen tracked over the South China Sea, directing persistent moisture into central and northern regions. Their combined influence triggered flash floods, river overflows, and hundreds of landslides in mountainous terrain. UNICEF and the European Civil Protection and Humanitarian Aid Operations (ECHO) reported at least 300 fatalities and nearly 190 000 people affected. More than 220 000 houses were flooded, damaged, or destroyed, along with widespread losses to roads, schools, and agricultural land. Extremely heavy rainfall overwhelmed river systems, including the Thu Bon, Vu Gia, and Ca basins. Central provinces such as Quang Nam, Quang Ngai, Thua Thien-Hue, and Nghe An recorded the heaviest impacts, where saturated soils led to multiple landslides and ongoing instability.

killed as bridge collapses at Kalando mine, DR Congo - A makeshift bridge collapsed at the Kalando copper-cobalt mine near Kolwezi in Lualaba province on November 15, 2025, killing at least 32 people, provincial authorities said. Unofficial reports mention over 70 and up to 130 killed. Provincial interior minister Roy Kaumba Mayonde confirmed that 32 bodies had been recovered. The national artisanal-mining agency SAEMAPE reported an estimate of around 40 deaths, according to Associated Press. A separate report cited by Reuters quoted an agency official stating 49 fatalities, while some media outlets reported up to 70 and over 130. These higher figures have not been independently verified. According to provincial officials and SAEMAPE, soldiers deployed to secure the off-limits site fired shots, causing panic among hundreds of artisanal miners who had entered the area despite a ban imposed because of heavy rainfall and landslide risk. The miners rushed onto a narrow bridge spanning a rain-filled trench, causing it to collapse. Recovery teams have been working at the site to retrieve bodies and assist survivors. Recovered survivors have been transferred to local hospitals for urgent care. The Kalando mine, located near Kolwezi in southeastern Lualaba province, is part of the region’s copper-cobalt belt. Although semi-industrial, the site is frequently used by artisanal miners operating informally. Authorities had designated the area off-limits due to recent heavy rains and unstable ground, but hundreds of artisanal miners continued to enter the site. An investigation has been opened to determine the structural condition of the bridge, the circumstances that led to the panic, and whether access restrictions were enforced. Civil-society groups called for an independent inquiry into the role of security forces and the conditions at artisanal mining sites. Artisanal and small-scale mining in the Democratic Republic of the Congo involves an estimated 1.5 to 2 million people and supports more than 10 million indirectly. Reports from national authorities and international organizations have documented recurring safety issues at informal sites, including the use of improvised infrastructure and frequent access to restricted zones during periods of heavy rainfall.

Tropical Cyclone Fina forms as the earliest named storm of the Australian cyclone season in 12 years - The WatchersTropical Cyclone Fina formed over the Timor Sea on November 19, 2025, becoming the first named storm of the 2025–26 Australian region cyclone season. This marks the earliest start of the Australian cyclone season in 12 years. The last time a tropical cyclone developed this early was Cyclone Alessia, which made landfall in the Northern Territory on November 28, 2013. As of 09:30 ACST (00:00 UTC) on November 19, the system was located about 370 km (230 miles) north-northeast of Darwin and 210 km (130 miles) north-northwest of Minjilang. Fina is a Category 1 storm with sustained winds near the center reaching 75 km/h (47 mph), with gusts up to 161 km/h (100 mph). The system was moving northeast at 12 km/h (7 mph).The cyclone is forecast to continue moving eastward as it intensifies into a Category 2 storm by the night of November 19. It is expected to then turn south on November 20 toward Australia’s northern coast, potentially making landfall over the Northern Territory by November 21. Destructive wind gusts of up to 135 km/h (84 mph) could develop between Cape Don and Warruwi as early as November 20, but are more likely on November 21, according to the Bureau of Meteorology (BOM).

NOAA releases 2025-26 winter weather predictions. Here’s what to expect– The predictions are in for winter weather – and they are very different depending on where you live. The Climate Prediction Center, a division of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), released its long-range forecast for December 2025 through February 2026on Thursday. The outlook tells two different stories: a cold, wet winter for some states versus a hot, dry season for others. . It’s those up north most likely to see frigid winter weather, according to NOAA’s predictions. A band of states from Washington to Michigan is leaning toward seeing colder-than-normal weather starting next month. These states always lean colder than the south when winter rolls around, but the forecast for this winter suggests it’ll be even colder than they’re used to. The inverse is true for the southern half of the country up toward the mid-Atlantic, which is favored to see warmer-than-average temperatures. The Southwest and Florida have the highest chances of seeing unseasonably warm weather. The precipitation outlook also predicts two different fates: wet weather and snow up north, but dry patterns down south. The future is harder to predict for much of middle of the country, shaded in white on both forecast maps. The forecast in those states is more of a toss-up; it could be wet and cold or it could be dry and warm. The newly released winter weather predictions are consistent with La Niña, which officially began last month. La Niña tends to bring wetter weather to the Pacific Northwest and Ohio Valley. Meanwhile, we typically see dry, warm weather in the southern states. La Niña also tends to make drought worse in the South and Southwest, and that’s likely going to be the case this year, according to NOAA. Forecasters expect drought to continue in parts of the Southwest, deep South and even parts of the Northeast. These 9 grocery staples have seen the biggest price spikes this year Parts of Texas, Louisiana and neighboring states are expected to develop drought conditions as we get further into winter. Millions of Americans could get a taste of winter before the season even starts. NOAA is warning cooler-than-normal temperatures could start as early as Nov. 25 for Midwestern and Plains states. Over Thanksgiving weekend the cold weather is expected to extend south into Texas and the Gulf, as well as east toward the East Coast and New England. “This pattern change favors a transition to more winter-like conditions across the Northwestern, Central, and Eastern U.S., including much below temperatures and the potential for heavy snow,” national meteorologists said.

Weak La Niña and rare November SSW could drive winter pattern shift across the U.S. - A combination of the ongoing weak La Niña, the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO), and a rare November Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW), could bring colder winter-conditions across parts of the U.S. during late November and early December 2025. The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) reported that a large-scale pattern change is increasingly likely across the United States between November 22 and December 12. This will be driven by the interactions of the La Niña, the current phase of the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO), and the possibility of a rare November SSW A colder weather pattern is forecast across the western U.S. around the Thanksgiving period, while milder conditions are expected to persist across much of the East. Later in November, ensemble guidance and the CPC Week-3/4 outlook show increasing probabilities for much-below-normal temperatures across portions of the northern Plains, Upper Midwest and adjacent central regions. Elevated probabilities for heavier snowfall are also being seen over the mountainous West and sections of the northern Plains, where model support is strongest.

Rare sudden stratospheric warming forecast to develop over the Arctic in late November 2025 - An arctic blast could be in forecast for the U.S. during December 2025, with a sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) being forecast to disrupt the polar vortex. This will result in a spill of arctic air across mid-latitudes and below average temperatures across the U.S. A sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) event is forecast to develop above the Arctic in late November 2025, raising the odds of below-average temperatures across much of the United States through December.The phenomenon, a rapid warming and weakening of stratospheric winds about 20 km (12 miles) above the surface, disrupts the polar vortex, a large circulation of cold air that normally remains confined near the pole.Forecast models show that the stratosphere may warm up by as much as 40°C (104°F) in the upper atmosphere, potentially weakening or even splitting the polar vortex. Based on historical data, such events are followed by cold-air outbreaks in the mid-latitudes.While a sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) does not guarantee a prolonged or severe cold wave, early-season events of this kind have historically been followed by significant cold outbreaks in the eastern United States, while others have resulted in weaker or shorter-lived effects. In records dating to the late 1950s, only twice before has a major SSW event happened as soon as November, in 1968 and 1958. And the last time one happened in December was in 1998. So, this could be the earliest such event in at least 27 years. If the disturbance occurs as forecast, colder conditions could emerge gradually through December. Such stratospheric events often take several weeks to affect surface weather, meaning that the main effects would appear in early to mid-December.

Antarctic ice loss linked to 'storms' at ocean's subsurface - In a paper published recently in Nature Geoscience, the scientists say their study is the first to examine ocean-induced ice shelf melting events from a weather timescale of just days versus seasonal or annual timeframes. This enabled them to match "ocean storm" activity with intense ice melt at Thwaites Glacier and Pine Island Glacier in the climate change-threatened Amundsen Sea Embayment in West Antarctica. The research team relied on climate simulation modeling and moored observation tools to gain 200-meter-resolution pictures of submesoscale ocean features between 1 and 10 kilometers across, tiny in the context of the vast ocean and huge slabs of floating ice in Antarctica. "In the same way hurricanes and other large storms threaten vulnerable coastal regions around the world, submesoscale features in the open ocean propagate toward ice shelves to cause substantial damage," "Submesoscales cause warm water to intrude into cavities beneath the ice, melting them from below. The processes are ubiquitous year-round in the Amundsen Sea Embayment and represent a key contributor to submarine melting." Poinelli said that he and his colleagues identified a positive feedback loop between submesoscale motion and ocean-induced melting: More ice shelf melting generates more ocean turbulence, which in turn causes more ice shelf melting. "Submesoscale activity within the ice cavity serves both as a cause and a consequence of submarine melting," he explained. "The melting creates unstable meltwater fronts that intensify these stormlike ocean features, which then drive even more melting through upward vertical heat fluxes." The study found that these ephemeral, high-frequency processes account for nearly a fifth of the total submarine melt variance over an entire seasonal cycle. During extreme events, submarine melting can increase by as much as threefold within hours as these features collide with ice fronts and penetrate beneath the ice base. The numerical findings align closely with high-resolution observational data from moorings in the vicinity and floats deployed in another sector of Antarctica, which shows distinct intermittent events of warming and increased salinity at depths with similar magnitudes and timescales as the extreme melting events described in the study. The conclusions take on added urgency in light of changes to Earth's climate. The West Antarctic Ice Sheet, if it were to collapse, could raise global sea level by up to 3 meters. The research suggests that in future scenarios with warmer waters, longer polynya (an expanse of open water surrounded by ice) periods and lower sea ice coverage, these energetic submesoscale fronts could become even more prevalent, with far-reaching implications for ice shelf stability and global sea level rise.

Five tourists killed by severe snowstorm in Chile’s Torres del Paine National Park - Five foreign tourists died after being trapped by a powerful snowstorm in Torres del Paine National Park, southern Chile, on Monday, November 17, 2025. Four other members of the group were rescued alive amid strong winds and heavy snow. The group of nine was trekking along the park’s remote circuit route when weather conditions deteriorated rapidly. At the time of the accident, they were traversing the sector near Los Perros camp, one of the most remote areas of the park, accessible only by several hours of trekking through mountainous terrain. Authorities confirmed the deaths of two German nationals, two Mexican nationals, and one British woman. Four others—whose nationalities have not yet been publicly released—were rescued alive and transported to the regional hospital in Puerto Natales. According to the Chilean National Emergency Office (ONEMI), the storm intensified unexpectedly, producing sustained winds up to 193 km/h (120 mph) and heavy snow that created white-out conditions. Rescue operations were conducted by park rangers and Chilean Air Force personnel but were hindered by limited visibility, snow accumulation, and blocked mountain passes. Recovery efforts continued through Tuesday, November 18, as teams attempted to reach the site by land and helicopter when weather allowed. Officials in the Magallanes region have opened an investigation into the circumstances of the accident and the safety protocols in effect during the trek. Torres del Paine National Park, a UNESCO Biosphere Reserve, attracts more than 300 000 visitors each year, many undertaking multi-day trekking routes in highly variable weather. November marks the late-spring transition in Patagonia, a period known for sudden temperature drops and extreme wind events.

Explosive activity observed at Fuego volcano, Guatemala - (video) A visually impressive Strombolian eruption occurred at Guatemala’s Fuego volcano on November 16, producing rhythmic explosions, incandescent lava ejections, and an ash plume rising to about 4 300 m (14 100 feet) above sea level. The Washington Volcanic Ash Advisory Center (VAAC) reported continuous ash emissions drifting toward the west-southwest, while the National Institute of Seismology, Volcanology, Meteorology and Hydrology (INSIVUMEH) confirmed strong detonations and glowing emissions visible from nearby communities, including Alotenango and Patsízia. According to GOES-19 satellite data, ash clouds were observed extending approximately 18.5 km (11.5 miles) from the summit. Night-time webcams recorded frequent bursts of incandescent material, forming short-lived fountains typical of Strombolian activity. Continuous gas-and-ash emissions were detected by the regional seismic and infrasound network on November 17. The VAAC issued successive advisories confirming steady activity and dispersal of ash plumes within about 20 km (12 miles) of the summit. During the night of November 18 local time, INSIVUMEH reported another strong eruption. Residents heard loud explosions, and incandescent material descended toward vegetated zones on the upper slopes. Observers captured lightning discharges within the eruptive column – a phenomenon occasionally produced when ash particles collide and generate static charge during dense explosive activity. The observed plume at 13:27 UTC on November 19 extended about 18.5 km (10 nautical miles) southwest of the summit, maintaining an altitude near 4 300 m (14 100 feet) a.s.l. Forecast models predicted continued west-southwesterly transport during the next 18 hours. The Smithsonian Institution’s Global Volcanism Program notes that Fuego has remained in an open-vent state since its major 2018 eruption, which caused significant loss of life and damage in southern Guatemala. Since 2024, INSIVUMEH has recorded frequent low-to-moderate eruptive phases characterized by short lava flows and ash plumes reaching up to 1 000 m (3 300 feet) above the summit. Volcanic ash emissions pose hazards to air traffic, infrastructure and public health. Authorities have warned that fine ash particles can cause respiratory irritation and contaminate water sources when mixed with rain. Residents in affected areas have been advised to use masks and avoid outdoor exposure during periods of heavy ashfall.

Multiple eruptions at Sakurajima volcano disrupt flights at Kagoshima Airport, Japan - (videos) Multiple explosive eruptions at Sakurajima’s Minamidake crater in Kagoshima, Japan, on November 16, 2025, sent ash to about 4 400 m (14 400 feet) above sea level, prompting ashfall forecasts and flight cancellations at Kagoshima Airport. Sakurajima volcano in Kagoshima Prefecture produced several explosive eruptions at the Minamidake crater early on Sunday, November 16 (JST). The maximum cloud height was estimated near 5 500 m (18 000 feet) above sea level. The activity triggered ashfall forecasts for Kagoshima City and parts of neighboring Miyazaki Prefecture, prompting operational measures at Kagoshima Airport. The first explosion was recorded near 00:57 JST on November 16 (15:57 UTC on November 15), followed by additional events later in the early morning hours. Ash drifted mainly toward the northeast, producing intermittent surface deposits downwind. Airlines canceled about 30 flights on November 16 as airport operators conducted runway sweeping and visibility checks, and carriers performed post-ash inspections such as engine borescope examinations. Disruptions and precautionary checks continued into November 17, with further cancellations and delays reported. By 05:50 UTC on November 16 (14:50 JST), satellite analysis indicated dissipation of the primary ash cloud, with subsequent observed and forecast tops near 3 700 m (12 000 feet) above sea level. Even with upper-air ash decreasing, residual low-level ashfall around the airport area required ground operations to proceed at reduced tempo. Authorities maintained Alert Level 3, with access restrictions in the vicinity of the active crater. Residents and visitors are advised to avoid areas near the summit crater due to the risk of ballistic ejecta and sudden explosive bursts. Short-lived increases in eruptive output are common at Sakurajima and can rapidly elevate ash to several kilometers above sea level, producing localized ashfall that affects transportation, utilities, and outdoor activities.

Ash from White Island volcano disrupts flights at Whakatāne and Tauranga airports, New Zealand - Ash from the Whakaari/White Island volcano caused multiple flight cancellations in parts of New Zealand on Tuesday, November 18, 2025, with the Whakatāne and Tauranga airports reporting severe service impacts due to the ash. Image of White Island volcano from observation flight on November 3, 2025, showing the steam and gas plume, containing minor amounts of volcanic ash. Credit: Craig Miller Chief executive Mark Read said Air Chathams cancelled morning and afternoon flights in and out of Whakatāne on Tuesday due to the volcanic ash advisory. Air Chathams’ Whakatāne services fly to Auckland, Paraparaumu and Whanganui. Volcanic ash also disrupted flights at Tauranga Airport, leading to at least 8 cancellations. The last four flights departing Tauranga on Monday night, November 17, were cancelled along with the first four departures on Tuesday morning, Airport Manager Ray Dumble told RNZ.Tauranga Airport has since resumed services. The volcano remains at Alert Level 3, indicating minor eruptive activity. The Aviation Color Code remains at Orange.Back in December 2019, the White Island volcano erupted, killing 22 people and seriously injuring 25 others. Just last month, on October 30, new ash emissions were confirmed at the volcano, with an observation flight on November 3 confirming an ash plume rising 400–500 m (1,300–1,600 feet) above sea level.

Major eruption at Semeru volcano produces large pyroclastic flow, ash to 16.5 km (54 000 feet) a.s.l., Indonesia - A major eruption took place at Semeru volcano, Indonesia, on November 19, 2025, producing large pyroclastic flow and ash column up to 16.5 km (54,000 feet) above sea level. The Aviation Color Code was raised to Red while authorities issued exclusion zones along Besuk Kobokan.Satellite data from JMA’s Himawari-8 showed a rapidly intensifying ash column during the morning hours, with the Darwin Volcanic Ash Advisory Centre (VAAC) confirming ash reaching approximately 16.5 km (54 000 feet) above sea level (a.s.l.) at 09:20 UTC (16:20 WIB).Although the plume was partially obscured by meteorological cloud, infrared analysis indicated continuous emissions from the summit crater and dispersal toward the north and northwest.Ground observations confirmed the generation of a large pyroclastic density current (PDC) moving through the southeastern drainage network. The flow followed the Besuk Kobokan valley, which has historically acted as the primary channel during major eruptive episodes at Semeru.Local CCTV recordings and community livestreams documented the propagation of low-lying, ash-rich pyroclastic density currents (PDCs) throughout the afternoon. According to early local observations, PDC activity initiated at approximately 14:30 WIB (07:30 UTC), with runout distances reaching at least 5 km (3.1 miles) by 15:00 WIB (08:00 UTC). Subsequent field reports indicated that later PDC pulses may have extended to distances of up to 15 km (9.3 miles) along the southeastern drainage system.

Evacuations ordered after powerful eruption at Semeru volcano sends ash to 17.9 km (59 000 feet), Indonesia - Indonesia’s Geological Agency raised the alert level for Semeru volcano to the highest (Level IV) following a major eruption on November 19, 2025, that produced an ash column up to 17.9 km (59 000 feet) above sea level. Authorities ordered evacuations of at least 300 residents from nearby villages and expanded exclusion zones up to 8 km (5 miles) from the crater and along the Besuk Kobokan valley.The major eruption occurred at Semeru volcano, East Java, Indonesia, on November 19, producing a large pyroclastic flow and an ash column reaching approximately 17.9 km (59 000 feet) above sea level (a.s.l.), according to the Darwin Volcanic Ash Advisory Centre (VAAC) and Japan Meteorological Agency’s (JMA) Himawari-8 satellite data. The Aviation Color Code was raised to Red during the eruption.Infrared imagery showed a rapidly intensifying column between 08:00 and 09:20 UTC (15:00–16:20 WIB), dispersing primarily toward the north and northwest, but continuous emissions were detected throughout the afternoon.Ground observations confirmed the generation of extensive pyroclastic density currents (PDCs) moving through the southeastern flanks. The largest flows followed the Besuk Kobokan drainage, reaching distances of up to 15 km (9.3 miles) from the summit.Local monitoring networks and community recordings documented multiple PDC pulses starting around 14:30 WIB (07:30 UTC). The flows caused dense, low-lying ash conditions throughout the Kobokan valley system. Following the eruption, Indonesia’s Geological Agency, Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources, raised the alert level of Mount Semeru from Level III to Level IV — the highest on the national scale. “The public is advised not to engage in activities within an 8 km (5 miles) radius of the crater or peak of Mount Semeru due to the risk of being struck by ejected rocks,”

Rare audio of approaching pyroclastic flow from Mount Semeru’s November 19 eruption, East Java - A major eruption at Mount Semeru, East Java, Indonesia, on November 19, 2025, produced large pyroclastic flows descending the southern slopes. One of them was captured on video, allowing both the sight and sound of the approaching flow to be recorded.The video shows a large pyroclastic density current moving downslope at high speed, generating a continuous, resonant rumble audible for kilometers.The sound originates from turbulent, high-temperature gas and ash surging through the valley, with particle collisions and rapid pressure oscillations producing the characteristic low-frequency vibration.Short, thunder-like bursts accompany the flow as electrical discharges occur within the moisture-rich ash column. Volcanic lightning events are produced when fine ash particles collide and accumulate charge, releasing short flashes and sharp acoustic cracks. Light rainfall and ashfall can also be heard striking nearby surfaces.During this event, the AfarTV monitoring cameras positioned near the volcano went offline amid extreme ashfall and intense eruptive activity. According to the network’s operators, the outage likely resulted from ash accumulation and high-temperature exposure affecting the equipment. “We are assessing the situation, but the equipment may have been damaged by the eruption,” the team said.The eruption began early on November 19, 2025, producing multiple pyroclastic density currents and sending an ash plume up to 17.9 km (59 000 feet) above the summit. Heavy ashfall was reported across the Lumajang region, prompting authorities to raise the alert to Level IV, the highest on Indonesia’s four-tier volcanic alert scale.More than 900 residents were evacuated from villages on the southern slopes, particularly along the Besuk Kobokan valley, where several pyroclastic flows reached distances of up to 13 km (8 miles) from the summit. Thick deposits of ash and volcanic material disrupted transportation, damaged crops, and reduced visibility to near zero in several communities.At the same time, rescue teams were deployed to assist a group of about 170 climbers and guides who had been stranded near Ranu Kumbolo on the northern slope of the volcano. The evacuation was completed the following day, with all climbers reported safe.

3I/ATLAS displays complex jet morphology, live stream scheduled for November 19 - Two independent ground-based observations on November 16 and 17, 2025 have provided the first detailed post-perihelion documentation of jet morphology on 3I/ATLAS, the third confirmed interstellar object.The images show multiple narrow jets, a pronounced anti-tail, and a long collimated dust tail, all captured as the object continues to fade after passing perihelion.The November 16 dataset, recorded between 11:53 and 12:23 UTC by Satoru Murata using a 0.2 m Celestron EdgeHD 800 telescope in New Mexico, USA, consists of 24 exposures of 60 s. The composite image reveals several jets directed both toward and away from the Sun, with clear structure despite the object’s decreasing brightness.On November 17 at 17:04 UTC, Francois Kugel captured a second sequence using a 0.4 m telescope in France, combining 22 exposures of 30 s. This independent image displays the same multi-directional jet features observed the previous day.The similarity between the two composites indicates stable jet morphology over a period of at least 24 hours. For a small, active interstellar object, this level of structural consistency is notable, as rotational motion commonly produces visible variations in short-exposure observations.

X5.1 solar flare produces strongest GLE in 20 years, sharply increasing radiation at flight altitudes - UK researchers report that radiation levels at commercial flight altitudes reached their highest values in 20 years following the X5-class solar flare on November 11, 2025, with the resulting Ground Level Enhancement driving single-event upset rates in avionics not seen since 2006. A Ground Level Enhancement (GLE) is the most energetic class of Solar Energetic Particle (SEP) events, produced when solar eruptions accelerate protons to relativistic energies. Most SEPs remain confined to space and are detected only by satellites, but a GLE is intense enough for secondary particles generated in the atmosphere to reach ground-based neutron monitors. Since systematic observations began in the 1940s, only about 70 such events have been recorded. Radiation measurements collected over the UK show that the Veteran’s Day solar storm on November 11 produced the strongest Ground Level Enhancement (GLE) in two decades. Early results from the Surrey Space Centre and the UK Met Office indicate that effective dose rates at aviation altitudes rose sharply during the event. The GLE followed an X5-class solar flare on November 11. Soon after the eruption, researchers from Surrey deployed balloon-borne radiation sensors to analyze the storm’s impact on the upper atmosphere. According to their measurements, effective dose rates at 12 200 m (40 000 feet) went over 55 μSv per hour, with modelling suggesting that some high-latitude flight paths may have reached 80 μSv per hour. Typical cruise-altitude dose rates are only a few μSv per hour, so this represents an order-of-magnitude increase over nominal conditions. Analysis by Surrey and the UK Met Office suggests that several high-latitude transatlantic routes likely received roughly twice their normal cosmic-ray dose during the peak of the event. Professor Clive Dyer of the Surrey Space Centre said that neutron monitors worldwide detected the surge. “This was the strongest Ground Level Event since December 13, 2006,” he said. While the measured doses remained far below thresholds associated with acute radiation effects for passengers or crew, the storm heightened technical risks for avionics. Surrey’s analysis, as reported by Dr. Tony Phillips of SpaceWeather, estimates that single-event upsets, bit-flips in memory caused by energetic particles, could have reached rates of around 60 errors per hour per gigabyte at the peak. Significant GLEs typically occur once or twice per solar cycle. The event of February 23, 1956, remains the largest of the modern observational era, with dose rates inferred to have exceeded normal conditions by more than two orders of magnitude. Last week’s GLE was approximately 2% of that 1956 event, according to Surrey’s assessment. Cosmogenic-isotope records preserved in tree rings and ice cores show that far larger solar-particle events have occurred in the past. These so-called Miyake Events, such as those in 775 CE and 994 CE, exceeded typical modern GLEs by several orders of magnitude and remain essential to ongoing studies of extreme solar behaviour.

Relentless rise in carbon pollution from fossil fuels slightly dampens climate-fighting hopes - For each of the past several years, scientists, analysts and officials have been hoping that it would be the year when emissions from the burning of coal, oil and natural gas would stop going up. They'll have to wait another year. For the second straight year, emissions from fossil fuels rose 1.1% in 2025, scientists reported Wednesday at United Nations climate negotiations. It's not a big jump. It's one of the smallest in recent non-pandemic years. But negotiators gathering for the COP30 conference on the edge of the Amazon are trying to curb warming global temperatures by getting fossil fuel emissions to stop rising and then plunge. "It's disappointing that we haven't brought down carbon dioxide emissions," said University of Exeter scientist Stephen Sitch, a member of the Global Carbon Project, which uses data from around the world to calculate the yearly emissions figure and publishes it in two scientific journals. His colleague Glen Peters of CICERO Center for International Climate Research in Norway called carbon emissions increase "relentless." A second report from a different scientific group examined how much warming the world is on track for, given this year's carbon emissions and governmental policies. The report by Climate Action Tracker shows the last four years of climate fighting efforts haven't much changed projections for a hotter future much. In fact, the scientists found that actions by U.S. President Donald Trump's administration this year have added a bit more warmth to their projections. "Unless there's a change in political momentum, we're going to cook. There's no doubt about it," said Climate Analytics CEO Bill Hare, one of the report's authors. Climate Action Tracker said the world is now on target for 2.6 degrees Celsius (4.7 degrees Fahrenheit) of warming above mid 1800s levels, a slight drop from last year's projections of 2.7 degrees (4.9 degrees Fahrenheit), but most of that drop was from changes in the way scientists looked at China's numbers, not that much from new policies put in places. The 2015 Paris Agreement sent an international goal of limiting warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) since the mid 1800s. Climate Action Tracker also looked at projections based on each country's climate-fighting plan submitted this year leading up to the climate conference in Belem, Brazil. The future based on those pledges looks a tenth of a degree warmer than it did a year ago, according to their report. Much of that is the effect of Trump's dismantling of American pollution fighting efforts, said NewClimate Institute's Ana Missirliu, an author of the report. If countries do what they promise, the world is heading to 2.2 degrees Celsius (4 degrees Fahrenheit) of warming above 1800s levels, the report said. Experts at the climate conference said they see hope and progress, but the emission numbers from this year still hurt. "When I hear that emissions are still going up, I'm truly troubled," said former German top climate negotiator Jennifer Morgan.

Soil carbon decomposition varies vastly, holding implications for climate models - Soil stores more carbon than Earth's atmosphere and plants combined, which makes the speed of soil carbon's decomposition an important variable in models used to predict changes to our climate. A new study by a team that includes four Iowa State University researchers found that even under uniform laboratory conditions, the rate of organic carbon decomposition in soil samples collected across the U.S. differed by up to tenfold, in part due to variations in soil mineral and microbial properties—factors that are often underrepresented in current Earth systems models. Updating models with an improved understanding of the decomposability of organic carbon in soil—and its subsequent carbon dioxide emissions—could improve the accuracy of soil carbon feedback estimates in models, leading to more refined climate projections, said Chaoqun Lu, associate professor of ecology, evolution and organismal biology. "For modeling simulations, we've traditionally simplified these variations by assuming carbon in similar soil types or in similar biomes decomposes at the same base rate, if no environmental changes are present. However, our findings show that the base rate actually varied a lot, even within the same soil or biome type. So this will really change a common practice," said Lu, the corresponding author of the study recently published in One Earth.

Climate leaders are talking about 'overshoot' into warming danger zone. Here's what it means - The world's climate leaders are conceding that Earth's warming will shoot past a hard limit they set a decade ago in hopes of keeping the planet out of a danger zone. But they're not conceding defeat. United Nations officials, scientists, and analysts are pinning their hopes on eventually forcing global temperatures back below the red line they set in the 2015 Paris Agreement, which sought to limit warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 Fahrenheit) since preindustrial times. Busting that limit and then coming back down is called "overshoot." In the way climate science uses the term, it doesn't mean zooming by a red line and never looking back—it's all about seeing the line in the rear view mirror and making a U-turn to get back to lower temperatures. After years of considering the 1.5 mark a strict no-go situation, officials have in the past few weeks started talking about limiting the time and magnitude of Earth's stay in the danger zone. The 1.5 figure is based on temperatures averaged over a decade. Many scientists have said it's inevitable the 1.5 degree mark will be passed. The mark won't be considered breached until Earth goes beyond it over a 10-year average. It stands now at about 1.3 degrees Celsius (2.3 degrees Fahrenheit), and last year alone actually exceeded the 1.5 mark. It may be inevitable, but it won't be pretty, they say. "We have a real risk of triggering irreversible changes in Earth systems when we breach 1.5,'' said Johan Rockstrom, director of Germany's Potsdam Institute for Climate Research and a science advisor to the U.N.'s annual climate conference currently being held in the Brazilian Amazon city of Belem. Those risks include global extinction of coral reefs and exponential growth of killer heat waves. There's also a risk of triggering tipping points for irreversible changes, such as drying out the Amazon rainforest, melting ice sheets in Greenland and Antarctica and maybe even shutting down the entire Atlantic ocean current system, said Rockstrom and Climate Analytics CEO Bill Hare. Similar concerns were raised in a special 2018 U.N. report that showed how 1.5 starts the danger zone. "In Belem, we have more scientific evidence than we had 10 years ago that 1.5 is a real limit. It's not a target, it's not a goal, it's a limit, it's a boundary," Rockstrom told The Associated Press. "Go beyond it, we increase suffering of people, and we increase risk of crossing tipping points." Likely to be a breach For the past few years, scientists have said while it's technically possible for the world to stay at or below 1.5, it's not realistic. They calculate the planet is on pace for 2.6 degrees Celsius (4.7 degrees Fahrenheit) of warming since the mid-1800s, which ushered in the Industrial Revolution and a massive uptick in burning of fossil fuels like coal, oil and gas. For years, U.N. officials have insisted that 1.5 is still alive. But now, even though they insist the goal is still pertinent, those same leaders in the last few weeks have acknowledged that it will likely be breached in coming years or decades. "The science is clear: We can and must bring temperatures back down to 1.5 Celsius after any temporary overshoot," U.N. climate chief Simon Stiell said as this year's conference began. U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres, speaking in Geneva last month, was even more blunt, though he added hope. "Overshooting is now inevitable, which means that we are going to have a period, bigger or smaller, with higher or lower intensity, above 1.5 degrees in the years to come," Guterres said. "Now, that doesn't mean that we are condemned to live with 1.5 degrees lost. No."

New York Democrats split on climate law - — A dividing line is forming over New York’s ambitious climate goals and Democratic Gov. Kathy Hochul’s affordability push. And state Democrats are starting to take sides. Hochul signaled she’s open to changing the state’s landmark 2019 law requiring massive emissions cuts after a judge ruled her administration must issue regulations to achieve its targets. She has steered the state toward an “all of the above” energy policy as she focuses on affordability and reliability concerns ahead of a tough reelection next year. And her latest actions — approving a pipeline and a gas power plant permit, plus delaying a mandate to electrify new buildings — have raised the ire of environmental advocates and progressive lawmakers, who warn years of progress are at risk.“It is tragic to know that we have an executive who is willing … to throw away the will of the people because of fearmongering and because of the oil and gas industry’s bottom line,” said state Assemblymember Emily Gallagher (D), who sponsored the legislation to electrify new buildings that Hochul’s administration has put on hold. “I hope that the governor will come to her senses and see that she is destroying her credibility and she is destroying our state.”

Reduced air pollution is making clouds reflect less sunlight -- Clouds play a vital role in the environment, providing rain but also reflecting sunlight before it reaches Earth's surface.But between 2003 and 2022, clouds over the North Atlantic and Northeast Pacific became less reflective, allowing more sunlight to reach the ocean surface and causing sea surface temperatures to rise.My colleagues and I recently conducted research that shows global efforts to improve air quality have unintentionally accelerated climate warming by modifying clouds. While cleaner air has major health benefits, decreasing the amount of particulate pollution has also reduced the cooling effect of clouds, accelerating climate warming. Our study relied on two decades of satellite data to analyze the impacts of changes in particulate pollution and climate warming on the clouds. The data shows that low-level clouds in the Northern Hemisphere have dimmed rapidly since 2003. In particular, cloud reflectivity over the North Atlantic and Northeast Pacific has fallen by nearly 3% per decade. During the same period, sea surface temperatures rose about 0.4 C, intensifying marine heat waves that have damaged ecosystems and fisheries.We expected that climate warming from greenhouse gas increases would lead to a decrease in low cloudsover the ocean. However, the observed changes were too large to be explained by this process or by natural climate variability, pointing to an additional cause of warming that many climate models underestimated.The key factor turned out to be aerosols—tiny particles that act as seeds for cloud droplets. When there are fewer aerosols, clouds contain fewer but larger droplets. Those droplets reflect less sunlight and are more likely to rain out quickly, producing shorter-lived, darker clouds. This process weakens the cooling influence that low clouds have over marine areas.The effect stems from two known mechanisms: the Twomey effect, where fewer aerosols make clouds less reflective, and the Albrecht effect, where larger droplets shorten cloud lifetime. Together, these changes reduce the planet's overall reflectivity.Ultimately, our study exposes a paradox: cleaner air benefits human health while also revealing the full force of greenhouse-gas warming, which has historically been "masked" by the cooling effect of particulate pollution.

Offsetting blue carbon benefits: Mangrove tree stems identified as previously underestimated methane source - Mangrove ecosystems rank among the most efficient "blue carbon" systems on Earth, capable of absorbing and storing vast quantities of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2). However, mangroves also release methane (CH4), a potent greenhouse gas, potentially offsetting a portion of their climate mitigation benefits. While prior research has focused primarily on methane emissions from mangrove soils and water surfaces, the role of tree stems as an emission pathway and its significance for global blue carbon accounting have remained largely unexamined. In a new study, researchers from the South China Botanical Garden of the Chinese Academy of Sciences conducted a global-scale assessment of methane emissions from mangrove tree stems. They also developed a comprehensive database of these emissions to date. The team's findings are published in Nature Geoscience. The researchers integrated long-term in situ monitoring from multiple mangrove sites across China, global literature datasets, and machine learning models. This approach allowed them to systematically evaluate the drivers of stem methane emissions and quantify how these emissions offset mangroves' carbon sequestration capabilities. The results revealed that mangrove tree stems represent a significant yet previously underestimated source of methane. Additionally, stem emissions showed a strong correlation with soil methane fluxes, indicating that methane produced by anaerobic microbial activity in mangrove soils is transported upward through specialized aerenchyma tissues within the trees. Field observations and isotopic analysis further supported these findings, uncovering a clear gradient in methane flux along stem height: Emissions were highest near the stem base and decreased steadily as height increased. At the global level, the study estimates that mangrove tree stems release approximately 730.6 gigagrams (Gg) of methane annually. This offsets roughly 16.9% of the carbon buried in mangrove sediments each year. When soil methane emissions are included, total methane losses could offset up to 27.5% of the blue carbon sequestered by mangroves.

Some California landfills are on fire and leaking methane: Newly proposed rules could make them safer - A vast canyon of buried garbage has been smoldering inside a landfill in the Santa Clarita Valley, inducing geysers of liquid waste onto the surface and noxious fumes into the air. In the Inland Empire, several fires have broken out on the surface of another landfill. In the San Fernando Valley, an elementary school has occasionally canceled recess due to toxic gases emanating from rain-soaked, rotting garbage from a nearby landfill. And, in the San Francisco Bay Area, burrowing rodents may be digging into entombed trash at a landfill-turned-park, unloosing explosive levels of methane. These are just a few of the treacherous episodes that have recently transpired at landfills in California, subjecting the state's waste management industry to growing scrutiny by residents and regulators. Landfill emissions—produced by decaying food, paper and other organic waste—are a major source of planet-warming greenhouse gases and harmful air pollution statewide. But mismanagement, aging equipment and inadequate oversight have worsened this pollution in recent years, according to environmental regulators and policy experts. This week, the California Air Resources Board will vote on adopting a new slate of requirements to better identify and more quickly respond to methane leaks and disastrous underground fires at large landfills statewide. The proposal calls for using satellites, drones and other new technologies to more comprehensively investigate methane leaks. It also would require landfill operators to take corrective action within a few days of finding methane leaks or detecting elevated temperatures within their pollution control systems. In recent years, state regulators have pinpointed at least two landfills in Southern California experiencing "rare" underground landfill fires—largely uncontrollable disasters that have burned troves of buried garbage and released toxic fumes into the air. More recently, a new state satellite program has detected 17 methane plumes from nine landfills between July and October, potentially leaking the flammable gas into unwanted areas and contributing to climate change. Proponents of the proposed rule say the added oversight could help reduce California's second-largest source of methane, a potent greenhouse gas that warms the atmosphere much more than carbon dioxide. It could also bring relief to hundreds of thousands of people who live near landfills and may be exposed to toxic pollutants like hydrogen sulfide or benzene. "Curbing methane emissions is a relatively quick and cost-effective way to reduce the greenhouse pollution that's wreaking havoc with our climate,"

Without US satellites, 'we go dark', tells climate monitor - US budget cuts risk creating blind spots in Earth monitoring systems that would imperil weather forecasting and climate research for years to come, the deputy chair of a key UN-backed climate monitoring body warned in an AFP interview. Peter Thorne is the deputy chair of the Global Climate Observing System (GCOS), a little-known but crucial UN-backed program that tracks and evaluates data on the atmosphere, land and ocean. "In the 30 years I've been in this game, we've always seen incremental improvements in our ability to diagnose the Earth system," Thorne, who is also a professor at Ireland's Maynooth University, told AFP. "This is possibly the first time we're looking at an acute reversal in our capability to monitor Earth, just when we need it the most." Humanity has more data than ever about the planet: from balloons tracking winds and bobbing sea floats gauging ocean heat, to satellites with sweeping views of glaciers, ice sheets and atmospheric pollution. But years of complacency and threats to funding from President Donald Trump's current and proposed budget cuts in the United States are raising fears over the future of this global effort to understand Earth. This matters for climate change, but also for weather forecasts that inform farmers and provide early warnings for storms, floods, heat waves and drought, Thorne said. The issue was raised at COP30 in Brazil on Saturday by the technical body of the UN climate negotiations, which stressed the "vital importance" of monitoring and long-term data records. In a draft report, it expressed concern over declining support for long-term observation networks, including GCOS. The following interview with Thorne has been edited for flow and clarity:

Disaster-battered nations seek $120B in adaptation cash - — A group of countries is calling for a U.N. agreement to triple the amount of money for preventing the impacts of a hotter planet, as climate pollution keeps rising and funding for adaptation falls further behind.The move to increase adaptation funding to $120 billion annually at the COP30 climate talks comes as wealthy nations have cut back international aid and as President Donald Trump moves to withdraw the U.S. from the Paris Agreement, hampering global efforts to inject additional funding into climate actions.Even before Trump took office, nations worldwide had a spotty record of meeting their financial commitments to lower pollution and offer interest-free funding for protective infrastructure, agriculture and ecosystems. “Adaptation must move from vague aspirations to concrete action. It requires strong targets backed by finance, technology transfer and capacity building,” Sierra Leone’s climate and environment minister, Jiwoh Abdulai, told U.N. officials Monday.

First draft of climate pact lands at COP30 in Brazil - COP30 hosts Brazil on Tuesday produced a first draft of an agreement between nations at the UN climate talks after negotiations on the sticking points stretched late into the night. The draft includes a sweep of options on the most difficult issues, reflecting the gulf between the nearly 200 nations in Belem and the work still ahead to refine a final compromise. The nine-page "Global Mutirao" document—a reference to an Indigenous concept of uniting toward a common goal—came after Brazil on Monday urged delegates to work day and night to produce an agreement by midweek. The text leaves open a wide range of possibilities on the flashpoint issues in Belem—trade measures, finance for poorer nations, and the global inadequacy of carbon-cutting goals. But the quick turnaround of a draft on these thorny points suggested the COP30 presidency was confident it could soon have an outcome, observers said. "It represents a steady progression from the previous iteration and is likely one of the earliest releases of such a clean text in recent COP history," said Li Shuo, a climate analyst at the Asia Society Policy Institute. The draft reflects the stark division between a coalition wanting a "roadmap" on a fossil fuel phaseout, and a bloc led by oil-producing countries opposing any such effort. It proposes an optional "workshop" to discuss "low carbon solutions," or a high-level ministerial roundtable on pathways to help countries "progressively overcome their dependency on fossil fuels." A third option proposes no text at all. The draft also raises the possibility of assessing national climate pledges annually, instead of every five years, to assess global progress in reducing greenhouse gas emissions more frequently. It also suggested financial assistance from wealthy countries to developing ones for adaptation to climate change should be tripled by 2030 or 2035—a key demand from poorer nations. Proposals to address concerns over trade were also included, as China leads a push in Belem against "unilateral" measures and the EU's carbon price on imports in particular. On this sensitive issue, four proposals were outlined in the draft, including the creation of a summit under the UN Secretary-General on climate trade disputes. The marathon climate talks are supposed to end Friday after close to two weeks of negotiation, but they frequently run into overtime.

Senate upholds Trump administration methane rule - The Senate’s Republicans majority on Wednesday blocked a Democratic challenge to the Trump administration’s move to delay EPA methane rules. The Congressional Review Act resolution, S.J. Res. 76, would have nixed a recent EPA rule that extends the deadline by which states must comply with Biden-era methane emissions limits for oil and gas facilities. The resolution — brought by Sens. Adam Schiff (D-Calif.) and Environment and Public Works ranking member Sheldon Whitehouse (D-R.I.) — failed a procedural vote 46-51. Sen. Susan Collins of Maine was the sole Republican to vote for the measure. Schiff said the vote was intended to put members of Congress on the record about where they stand on reducing methane emissions. The EPA rule he targeted is viewed by some as the first step toward undoing standards established in 2024. “The decision by the EPA to put forward this polluter-friendly rule is perfectly emblematic of the administration’s approach to our environment,” Schiff said ahead of the vote Wednesday. “This isn’t good policymaking. This is extreme ideological obsession with dire consequences for the health and welfare of the American people,” he added. He and Whitehouse both used floor time ahead of the vote to explain how federal money has helped companies fix methane leaks and comply with new limits — which Schiff said means the Trump EPA delay “makes no sense.” Minority Leader Chuck Schumer also took to the Senate floor to speak in favor of the resolution, relating the Trump administration’s posture toward methane to a general rise in electricity bills. “As families are trying to save, Donald Trump is making it easier for gas companies to waste,” Schumer said. Environment and Public Works Chair Shelley Moore Capito (R-W.Va.), meanwhile, depicted the Trump EPA rule as a necessary protection from an “onslaught of regulations” against oil and gas companies that came during the Biden administration. EPA itself has said this rule is merely intended to give states more time to draft plans for compliance with methane standards. “Natural gas is an affordable, reliable and clean source of energy, vital to reducing our emissions. We should be expanding production of this resource, not restricting it. Unfortunately, restriction is the purpose of this CRA,” Capito said. The Congressional Review Act allows lawmakers to kill newly issued rules by simple majority. But with Republican control of both chambers of Congress and the White House, any CRA brought by Democrats is largely symbolic.

Trump admin backs cruise industry bid to sink Hawaii climate tax - The Trump administration is bolstering the cruise industry’s fight against a passenger tax Hawaii plans to levy to offset the costs of climate change.In a motion to intervene in the federal court case, the Department of Justice called the state’s “green fee” aimed at cruise ship operators and passengers a “scheme to extort American citizens and businesses.”The first-in-the-nation fee “flies in the face of federal law twice over” — conflicting with the Tonnage Clause of the U.S. Constitution and the Rivers and Harbors Appropriation Act of 1884, the government said inbriefs filed last week with the U.S. District Court for the District of Hawaii.DOJ’s move comes as the Trump administration has stepped up efforts to battle state initiatives aimed at holding the energy industry financially responsible for the costs of adapting to rising temperatures.A spokesperson for Hawaii Attorney General Anne Lopez, a Democrat, said the state is “vigorously defending the legality” of the tax law “and will continue to do so.”Federal intervention in a state tax case is not unprecedented, but it is unusual, said Michael Lurie, a partner at Reed Smith who specializes in state and local taxes. DOJ, he said, “does on occasion weigh in on state tax cases (such as by filing a statement of interest or amicus brief), but this is much more direct.” He said the federal government appears to be acting to “protect the interest of the public at large against Hawaii using their geographic location and lack of accountability to out of state residents to impose taxes.”The Cruise Lines International Association filed suit against Hawaii in August, seeking to block the state’s move to place an 11 percent surcharge on the gross fare paid by a cruise ship’s passengers, prorated by the portion of its voyage spent docked in Hawaii ports. The law also authorizes Hawaii counties to collect an additional 3 percent surcharge.That brings the total tax to 14 percent, “adding up to hundreds of millions of dollars in new fees over the next decade on out-of-state cruise lines and, by extension, their American citizen customers, seeking to visit one of our nation’s most beautiful lands,” DOJ said.Hawaii’s tax is scheduled to take effect Jan. 1, meaning cruise ships will not be permitted to dock in the state unless they pay the fee, “ultimately funding Hawaii’s ‘green’ climate change initiatives,” the federal government said.

EPA falls behind schedule for repealing endangerment finding - EPA said as recently as September that it planned to finalize its repeal of the so-called endangerment finding before 2025 ended. But it looks like the Times Square ball will drop first. Five industry advocates and former EPA officials who say they’ve spoken to agency staff in recent months told POLITICO’s E&E News that they now expect the rule to make an appearance in early 2026 — likely January. They were granted anonymity to discuss interactions with EPA staff. The rule is a crucial part of the Trump administration’s deregulatory push. It would remove EPA’s 2009 finding that climate pollution threatens public health and welfare — which serves as the scientific foundation for most Clean Air Act climate rules. The final package would also rescind Biden-era emissions rules for motor vehicles. The reason for the delay is unclear. While EPA rulemaking staff were not furloughed during the recent government shutdown, which ended last week after 43 days, work stoppages at the White House or elsewhere in the administration might have contributed to the delays. Substantial staff departures throughout the year might also have been a factor. EPA has also just completed a structural overhaul. “I think all of that is hard to disentangle from one another,” said one lobbyist who recently spoke with EPA officials. EPA also received more than half-a-million public comments on its draft before a Sept. 22 deadline — with only 26,500 of those comments uploaded to the rule’s docket as of Wednesday. EPA must substantively respond to those comments as part of its final rulemaking, or risk handing challengers an opening to argue that the decision to repeal the finding and vehicle standards was predetermined. “What the litigants will be looking for when the comments come out is whether or not the agency addressed each and every comment that was raised, particularly the ones that may be central to litigation,” said Joe Goffman, EPA’s air chief in the Biden administration. “And whether they addressed those comments with something more than hand waves.” If EPA is seen to have cut procedural corners and prejudged the outcome of the rulemaking, that could introduce a “vulnerability that’s out of the ordinary,” said Goffman, who said he was hearing a January release was likely. A January release date would still be a historically fast pace for such important rulemakings. EPA typically takes at least a year between a proposed and final rule — in large part because of the need to respond to so many public comments. But the Trump administration has pledged to complete its deregulatory agenda at a breakneck pace to ensure it can defend its policies all the way up to the Supreme Court.

House Republicans move to undo energy efficiency rules - A House Energy and Commerce subcommittee is looking to advance several bills aimed at rolling back Biden-era efficiency regulations. The Subcommittee on Energy plans to vote on seven Republican bills that sponsors say would lower utility and energy prices for Americans by reducing efficiency requirements. Affordability concerns featured prominently in the recent gubernatorial elections won by Democrats.“The bills before us today represent an opportunity for this Committee to refocus energy efficiency policies on true energy savings — whether reflected in the cost of an appliance or in utility bills — for hard-working American families,” Energy Subcommittee Chair Bob Latta (R-Ohio) said at a September hearing. But the markup is expected to reignite partisan clashes over efficiency standards. Democrats have long argued that such rules help lower consumer costs and curb energy demand.

Sunrise slams Dem leaders, announces primary picks - The Sunrise Movement is fed up with congressional Democratic leadership and wants to usher in a new wave of lawmakers. The youth-centered climate activist group last week announced plans to launch one of “the most ambitious primary programs in its history” heading into the 2026 midterm elections. On Monday, Sunrise announced the first two of its picks for Democratic congressional primaries. “For far too long, Democratic leadership has failed to meet the moment; it’s time to clear house,” said Aru Shiney-Ajay, Sunrise’s executive director in a statement. But Shiney-Ajay added that she’s “extremely excited about the crop of candidates running in 2026.” This election cycle offers an “unprecedented opportunity to elect a new generation of leaders who are challenging our broken political system and fighting for a livable and affordable country,” she said. GET

Inside Greenpeace USA's fight for its life - Greenpeace USA, one of the nation’s most iconic environmental groups, is threatened with extinction. The green group is struggling after nearly a decade of losing court battles against a Texas-based energy company co-founded by a billionaire backer of President Donald Trump. The group is facing possible bankruptcy if a judgment holds up finding that Greenpeace owes hundreds of millions of dollars in damages to the oil pipeline company Energy Transfer. Internally, the epic legal fight has already taken a toll. The group hasn’t had a permanent leader since its last one was sidelined in 2024. Senior lawyers exited the organization as litigation dragged on. And morale has slumped after the group cut about 20 percent of its staff in anticipation of a budget squeeze.

Green group enlists GOP insiders to lobby - The Nature Conservancy has enlisted a former Trump White House official and three former House Republican leadership aides to lobby for its conservation agenda. Republicans Alexander Angelson, Brittan Specht, Jason Yaworske and Preston Hill have registered to lobby for the conservation group, their firm Michael Best Strategies disclosed in a lobbying registration filed this month. The move suggests the environmental organization is eyeing inroads with the Republicans who control both chambers of Congress and the White House. It comes after the Trump team has spent its first 10 months in office dismantling many of the environmental and conservation policies enacted during the Biden administration, forcing green groups to recalibrate their strategies. GET

DEP Invites Comments On Renewal Of The Water Quality/Mining Permit For 11,336 Acres Of Consol Mining Underground Coal Mining In Cumberland Twp., Greene County -- The Department of Environmental Protection invites comments on renewal of a Consol Mining Company LLC Water Quality/Mining Permit covering 11,336 acres of underground mining in Cumberland Township, Greene County. (PA Bulletin, page 7993)The receiving stream is the Monongahela River.No public hearing has been scheduled, but one may be requested. Comments are due December 22 - 30 days from this notice.Comments should be sent to DEP California District Mining Office, 25 Technology Drive, Coal Center, PA 15423.To make an appointment to review the application file, contact Lori Jenkins, Clerical Assistant 3, at 724-769-1100.Read the entire PA Bulletin notice for more information. (PA Bulletin, page 7993)For more information on environmental programs in Pennsylvania, visit DEP’s website. Submit Environmental Complaints; Click Here to sign up for DEP’s newsletter; sign up for DEP’s eNotice; Like DEP on Facebook, Follow DEP on Twitter and visit DEP’s YouTube Channel.

Ohio lawmakers block rural prosperity, property rights: Tony Zartman - Guest Columnist, cleveland.com - Ohio’s rural communities are at a crossroads. Farming costs have soared, commodity prices are stuck in the past, and unpredictable weather has added new layers of risk. For many landowners, renewable energy development — particularly wind and solar — offers a practical way to stabilize their finances and preserve their farms for future generations. But instead of encouraging this opportunity, Ohio lawmakers have built a legal maze to keep it from happening.Across Northwest Ohio, farmers have embraced renewable energy as a way to generate steady income. Leasing farmland for wind or solar is voluntary — it’s a business decision, no different than renting land for crops or mineral rights. In Paulding County, for example, wind development has brought millions in tax revenue to schools and townships, created local jobs, and given farmers a reliable financial cushion that keeps their operations viable during hard years. Renewables also strengthen Ohio’s energy future. As the state attracts new manufacturing and data centers, demand for reliable, affordable power is rising fast. Wind and solar are cost-competitive and can help meet that demand without relying solely on out-of-state fuel or aging coal plants. This is not a theoretical “green dream.” It’s happening right now in the counties that have welcomed projects — and the results are overwhelmingly positive.Yet instead of embracing these benefits, the Ohio General Assembly has chosen obstruction. In 2021, lawmakers passed Senate Bill 52, which gives county commissioners the power to veto renewable energy projects — even when private landowners want them and state siting experts have approved them. This law applies only to wind and solar, not to pipelines, natural gas plants, or other infrastructure.The architects of this legislation, including now-Senate President Rob McColley, one of two primary sponsors of SB 52, claimed they were defending “local control.” In reality, they stripped away individual property rights and handed power to a handful of politicians who can block economic development with the stroke of a pen.This approach would be laughable if the consequences weren’t so serious. Ohio leaders talk endlessly about economic growth, energy security, and supporting farmers — but then they turn around and stop farmers from using their own land to produce home-grown energy. It’s policy madness.Renewable energy is voluntary. It’s market-driven. And it brings economic benefits to rural communities that few other industries can match. What’s truly radical is giving county politicians veto power over private business agreements between landowners and energy developers.Ohio doesn’t let neighbors stop someone from drilling for oil, growing crops, or building a barn. So why are renewables treated differently?

Artificial intelligence sparks debate at COP30 climate talks in Brazil - At the U.N. climate talks in Brazil, artificial intelligence is being cast as both a hero worthy of praise and a villain that needs policing. Tech companies and a handful of countries at the conference known as COP30 are promoting ways AI can help solve global warming, which is driven largely by the burning of fossil fuels like oil, gas and coal. They say the technology has the potential to do many things, from increasing the efficiency of electrical grids and helping farmers predict weather patterns to tracking deep-sea migratory species and designing infrastructure that can withstand extreme weather. Climate groups, however, are sounding the alarm about AI's growing environmental impact, with its surging needs for electricity and water for powering searches and data centers. They say an AI boom without guardrails will only push the world farther off track from goals set by 2015 Paris Agreement to slow global warming. "AI right now is a completely unregulated beast around the world," said Jean Su, energy justice director at the Center for Biological Diversity. On the other hand, Adam Elman, director of sustainability at Google, sees AI as "a real enabler" and one that's already making an impact. If both sides agree on anything, it's that AI is here to stay. Michal Nachmany, founder of Climate Policy Radar, which runs AI tools that track issues like national climate plans and funds to help developing countries transition to green energies like solar and wind, said there is "unbelievable interest" in AI at COP30. "Everyone is also a little bit scared," Nachmany said. "The potential is huge and the risks are huge as well." The rise of AI is becoming a more common topic at the United Nations compared to a few years ago, according to Nitin Arora, who leads the Global Innovation Hub for the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, the framework for international climate negotiations. The hub was launched at COP26 in Glasgow to promote ideas and solutions that can be deployed at scale, he said. So far, Arora said, those ideas have been dominated by AI. The Associated Press counted at least 24 sessions related to AI during the Brazil conference's first week. They included AI helping neighboring cities share energy, AI-backed forest crime location predictions and a ceremony for the first AI for Climate Action Award—given to an AI project on water scarcity and climate variability in the Southeast Asian nation of Laos. Johannes Jacob, a data scientist with the German delegation, said a prototype app he is designing, called NegotiateCOP, can help countries with smaller delegations—like El Salvador, South Africa, Ivory Coast and a few in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations—process hundreds of official COP documents. The result is "leveling the playing field in the negotiations," he said. In a panel discussion, representatives from AI giants like Google and Nvidia spoke about how AI can solve issues facing the power sector. Elman with Google stressed the "need to do it responsibly" but declined to comment further. Nvidia's head of sustainability, Josh Parker, called AI the "best resource any of us can have." "AI is so democratizing," Parker said. "If you think about climate tech, climate change and all the sustainability challenges we're trying to solve here at COP, which one of those challenges would not be solved better and faster, with more intelligence." Princess Abze Djigma from Burkina Faso called AI a "breakthrough in digitalization" that she believes will be even more critical in the future. Bjorn-Soren Gigler, a senior digital and green transformation specialist with the European Commission, agreed but noted AI is "often seen as a double-edge sword" with both huge opportunities and ethical and environmental concerns.

AI is front and center at COP30 -We live in a time often characterized as a polycrisis. One of those crises is human-caused climate change, an issue currently being discussed by delegates at the COP30 climate talks in Belém, Brazil. Another is disinformation, much of which has been focused on climate change. A third potential crisis comes from the implications of artificial intelligence for society and the planet. When it comes to AI and climate change, there are a variety of opinions, from the optimistic to the pessimistic and the skeptical. Given the overarching concerns about environmental harms of AI, it is surprising to some that AI is front and center at COP30, which I am currently attending. Both COP30 President André Aranha Corrêa do Lago and Simon Stiell, executive director of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, have noted the importance of AI and other aspects of technology for addressing climate change. While there has been some consideration of AI in addressing climate change at previous COPs, COP30 is the first conference where AI has been formally integrated as a central theme in the conference agenda. On the first day of COP30, "science, technology and artificial intelligence" was explicitly listed as one of the key themes. Initiatives included the Green Digital Action Hub, a global platform to drive a greener, more inclusive digital transformation. Additionally, there was a session introducing the AI Climate Institute. A key goal of the AI Climate Institute is to enable Global South countries to design, adapt and implement their own AI-based climate solutions. In these and other forums, there were discussions about digital decarbonization technologies and advances in data transparency for emissions. Proponents argued these initiatives were designed to help countries harness technology to meet their climate goals. When it comes to AI and climate change, there is a tendency for people to think about the increased environmental and climate change harms that AI will bring. In this regard, there has been a lot of recent media coverage on the potential of increased carbon emissions, water use and environmental damage as a result of mining for critical minerals. A key issue is the emissions produced by data centers. As many commentators have said—including Stiell—data centers need to have electrical power sources if AI is to be aligned with climate action. AI is already being applied in climate change mitigation. At COP30, former United States vice president Al Gore gave a presentation about the role of Climate TRACE in addressing climate change. Climate TRACE is a non-profit coalition of organizations that have been developing an inventory of exactly where greenhouse gas emissions are coming from to help governments, organizations and companies to reduce or eliminate these emissions. Climate TRACE uses satellite imagery, remote sensing, artificial intelligence and machine learning to estimate emissions. In his presentation, Gore demonstrated visual examples in a slide show. AI can play a role in reducing emissions in a number of ways. One, as noted above, is by tracking emissions. Another is by making energy systems more efficient and thus reducing emissions through energy savings. Reducing energy use and emissions were not the only type of efficiencies discussed at COP30. Conservation of water use and increased efficiencies in agricultural production were also highlighted. An example is the AI for Climate Action Award that was given to a team from Laos this year for a project using AI for farming and irrigation.

AI has the potential to make a big impact in the area of climate adaptation. Key issues were discussed at COP30 at a session called Smarter than the Storm: The Future of AI in Forecasting and Proactive Responses to Build More Resilient Communities. Scientific research has demonstrated that machine learning can assist local governments in their decisions about options for climate adaptation. AI can be an integral part of an early warning system. It can be used to predict floods using sensor data, predict wildfires using satellite and weather data, monitor social media for disaster response and identify areas at risk of landslides.AI tools involved in these various processes include machine learning, deep learning, natural-language processing and computer vision. Consistent with overarching concerns at COP30 about the importance of social and climate justice, proponents of community AI applications emphasized the need for transparency, affordability of data and AI systems and the sovereignty of community data. Climate disinformation is a key type of disinformation in contemporary society. AI can either be a source or a counter to climate disinformation.At COP30, disinformation and climate denial was mentioned in a number of contexts, including by Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. One key event on this topic was the announcement of a Declaration on Information Integrity on Climate Change, which a number of countries endorsed.AI can be considered a triple-edged sword. Unregulated expansion of AI has the potential to do enormous environmental harm and magnify misinformation and disinformation.However, principled development of AI, powered by clean energy sources, also has the potential to significantly reduce carbon emissions, provide early warning to communities of climate threats, reduce the costs of adapting to a changing climate and enhance our understanding of climate change.

COMMENTARY: Investors Risk Being Hoodwinked by Grim Energy Transition Vibes - (Reuters) – Stalled climate negotiations at COP30 and stubbornly high fossil fuel demand reflect the growing market consensus that the energy transition has slowed. But the risk now is that investors lose faith in a green shift that is continuing to move in one direction. The two-week climate summit in Belem, Brazil, is coming to an end, and leaders have been struggling to hammer out a deal as huge gaps remain between countries on pretty important issues – like whether to move away from fossil fuels at all. Much has changed since 195 governments sealed the landmark Paris agreement to battle climate change ten years ago. The world’s shift away from fossil fuels was rattled by the energy price shock following the war in Ukraine, economic challenges in the wake of the Covid-19 pandemic, U.S. President Donald Trump’s retreat from clean energy policies and political polarization globally. This does not mean the energy transition has not moved forward, but it is doing so in a more fractured manner than signers of the Paris agreement expected. This changing sentiment was on full display last week when the IEA unveiled a new outlook showing that oil and gas demand – which was previously expected to peak in the 2030s – may continue rising into the 2050s based on current government policies. The IEA’s Current Policies Scenario (CPS), which was produced following fierce criticism by Trump’s pro-fossil fuel administration, assumes climate policies and regulations will either be frozen or, in some cases, reversed in the coming decades. Many of the CPS’s assumptions are highly questionable, such as the expectation of a sharp slowdown in global sales of electric vehicles and smaller gains in petrol car efficiencies. A far more realistic scenario may be found in the agency’s Stated Policies Scenario (STEPS), which takes into account existing policies as well as those not yet turned into law that are viable under current market and economic conditions. Under STEPS, coal consumption would peak before 2030, with oil demand rising by 2% between now and 2030 to 102 million barrels per day, before gently declining. Natural gas demand would level off after 2035. This assumes that EV sales rise from over 20% of total vehicle sales today to more than 50% by 2035, displacing 10 million bpd of oil consumption. At the same time, STEPS also assumes that renewables, which today account for one-third of electricity generation, will represent over half by 2035 and two-thirds by 2050. This would be achieved mostly from solar and wind penetration with the support of battery storage. So which scenario, CPS or STEPS, appears more likely? STEPS is certainly better aligned with current spending patterns. Spending on low-emissions power generation has almost doubled over the past five years. Out of a total of $3.3 trillion investments in energy in 2025, two-thirds are expected to go into renewables, nuclear, battery storage, low-carbon fuels and electrification, according to the IEA’s recent World Energy Investment 2025 report. Solar remains the hottest renewable technology by far, with investment in utility-scale and rooftop solar panels expected to reach $450 billion in 2025, according to the IEA. Investments of this scale are rapidly changing the global energy mix. Global renewable power capacity is forecast to double between now and 2030, increasing by 4,600 gigawatts, roughly equivalent to the current combined power generation capacity of China, the European Union and Japan, according to the IEA’s Renewables 2025 report. Unsurprisingly, some 70% of the increased spending is expected to come from countries that are net importers of fossil fuels, led by China and Europe. China has been leading the clean energy revolution for years, putting it miles ahead of the rest of the world in terms of investment and deployment of renewables and EVs. Beijing is set to invest an eye-watering $630 billion in clean energy in 2025 alone, doubling the level ten years ago. China also exports around $15 to $20 billion per month in clean energy equipment, 5% of its total exports and the equivalent, in dollar terms, of 12 million bpd of crude oil, according to Bernstein analysts. Of course, the story is very different in the world’s other superpower. The United States is expected to see a sharp deceleration in renewables investment growth now that Trump has junked most of his predecessor’s clean energy policies. Even if a more climate-friendly administration comes into office, investors may hold back on ploughing cash into renewables given the volatile political and regulatory environment.

Data center boom raises stakes for consumer advocates - As Americans struggle with the cost of living, state utility consumer advocates are on the front lines of complex regulatory battles that decide what people pay for power and heating. Unsung, scrappy and operating on shoestring budgets, these small state offices and nonprofits vary by name, size and the scope, but they share a universal reality: They’ve always been underdogs facing off with multibillion-dollar utilities. “Underresourced is an understatement,” said David Lapp, head of Maryland’s Office of People’s Counsel. Lapp runs an office of about 30 advocates on an annual budget of about $8 million. That’s less than Exelon, the largest utility holding company in Maryland, generated in net income in a day. The David vs. Goliath nature of the work of utility consumer advocates isn’t new. But eye-popping demand projections driven by AI data centers with city-size thirsts for power have raised the stakes for their work. The Edison Electric Institute, the lobby for investor-owned electric utilities, said its members invested $1.3 trillion in grid infrastructure over the last decade. The group estimates those same companies will nearly match that pace of investment — $1.1 trillion — over the next five. Those costs are ultimately recovered from consumers, who also already faced rising costs for utilities, groceries other essentials. “The utilities have dollar signs in their eyes, and they want to build all the resources and grow rate base,” said David Springe, executive director of the National Association of State Utility Consumer Advocates. “Not that we’re against growth, I think we’re just very concerned about the level of capital expenditure.” The data center boom’s contribution to rising levels of peak power demand and higher wholesale prices is generating public and media attention around energy affordability. But utilities are also spending more to replace decades-old transmission and distribution lines, and they’re spending money to rebuild in areas hard hit by extreme storms in recent years. “We can’t take it anymore,” Indiana Gov. Mike Braun (R) said in a news release announcing a new consumer advocate. He tasked the state’s new ratepayer advocate with evaluating utility profits and said he wants company shareholders to “bear more of the cost of doing business.” Braun’s choice to lead the Indiana Office of Utility Consumer Counselor, Abby Gray, declined to be interviewed. While elected officials are feeling the political heat from rising utility bills in places like Indiana, some ratepayer advocates have gotten political blowback from being too critical of utilities. The budget for the Office of the Ohio Consumers’ Counsel is less today than it was in 2011 when then-Gov. John Kasich (R) and lawmakers slashed funding by almost half. Ohio’s chief consumer advocate at the time, Janine Migden-Ostrander, resigned in protest.

Biggest US Power Grid Operator Moving Forward With Plan to Manage Data Centers - (Reuters) – Operators of the U.S. electric grid covering the world’s largest data center market on Wednesday said they planned to move forward with a plan to manage the connection of the giant server warehouses that are propelling the country’s power use to record highs and raising the risk of supply shortfalls. PJM Interconnection, the biggest grid operator in North America, spanning 13 states and Washington, D.C., has been struggling to keep up with booming demand from the proliferation of Big Tech’s power-hungry data centers needed for the rapid expansion of artificial intelligence. PJM members, which include power generators, utilities and large energy users, cast votes on Wednesday that rejected about a dozen proposals aimed at quickly linking up data centers to the PJM grid while attempting to reduce the reliability risks of doing so. Following the results, representatives of the PJM Board of Managers said they still intended to advance a plan to handle its surging data center interconnection requests and aimed to finalize it by December. Earlier proposals for the so-called “Critical Issue Fast Path” required data center developers to bring their own power supplies and shut off operations during energy emergencies, including when electricity use surges on very hot and cold days. Those provisions were removed from later versions of the plan, and it was unclear what a final roadmap for PJM’s handling of data centers would be. Data centers are expected to account for nearly all of the 32 gigwatts of demand growth PJM forecasts on its system through 2030. Without significantly increasing power supplies, PJM has warned of power shortages in the region as early as 2027. PJM covers Northern Virginia, which has the biggest global concentration of data centers. Other burgeoning hubs are developing in states, including Ohio, Indiana and Pennsylvania, elsewhere in the Mid-Atlantic grid. The power crunch has sent prices in PJM’s annual capacity auction rising by more than 1,000% over the last two auctions. The region’s power bills started rising last summer. High prices in the auction are meant to encourage the build out of additional power plants and bring equilibrium to the market, but costs and supply chain problems have contributed to lengthy delays with building new power plants.

“Ghost” Data Center Projects Haunt Power Grid Planners, Taxpayers - Marcellus Drilling News - The U.S. electricity grid faces pressure from surging demand, primarily from data centers, sparking debates over reliability and cost allocation. EPSA (Electric Power Supply Association) CEO Todd Snitchler warns that “ghost projects”—projects announced and planned/funded but never built—are artificially inflating load forecasts. He argues that regulated utilities use these overstated numbers to justify expensive rate-based generation, benefiting shareholders while forcing customers to bear the costs of potential overbuilding. Competitive energy markets are demanding accurate, data-driven planning to maintain affordability and reliability without wasting capital on unnecessary infrastructure. Please, no more ghosts.

Japanese Co. Launches NatGas Service for Powergen in 10 U.S. States -Marcellus Drilling News- Overwatch Capital and Japanese company Idemitsu Kosan Co., Ltd. have formed a strategic partnership to develop high-density, energy-resilient AI data centers across ten U.S. states. This collaboration involves Idemitsu investing in Overwatch and supplying up to 1 gigawatt of natural gas for on-site power generation to support next-generation AI computers. The initiative leverages Overwatch’s SIDE Platform, which integrates generation, battery storage, and advanced cooling, alongside Idemitsu’s global energy expertise. Initial projects are set to begin in 2026 in Dallas-Fort Worth and Columbus, Ohio, to provide reliable infrastructure for hyperscalers and cloud providers.

Growth of data centers poses environmental threats for Southeast Ohio - By Finn Smith - Ohio has recently seen a massive growth in the construction of data centers. There are currently 194 data centers in Ohio, the fifth most of any state in the country, trailing only Virginia, Texas, California and Illinois, according to the Data Center Map.According to International Business Machines Corporation, a data center is “a physical room, building or facility that houses IT infrastructure for building, running and delivering applications and services. It also stores and manages the data associated with those applications and services.”In Ohio, the majority of data centers are located within the Central Ohio region, with 121 of the facilities located in Columbus. These data centers are mostly owned by large name-brand companies such as AWS, Meta and Google.A major concern regarding these data centers is the amount of water necessary for production. According to a report from the Environmental and Energy Study Institute, a large data center can use up to 5 million gallons per day, which is about 1.8 billion gallons annually.Another common environmental issue cited concerning data centers is the amount of power they require. According to the Environmental and Energy Study Institute, about 56% of all data centers are powered by fossil fuels.In Ohio, many have raised concerns about the environmental impact that will be seen as a result of growing fracking sites.Resident of Harrison County, Randi Pokladnik, has her Ph.D. in environmental studies, and recently wrote a commentary article in the Ohio Capital Journal, which discussed how the boom in data centers is impacting, and will continue to impact, the environment across the state. Pokladnik said the statehouse has passed multiple bills that effectively block solar and wind energy production across the state. She cited Senate Bill 52, which gave county commissioners the power to restrict the development of wind and solar energy in designated areas.Pokladnik said legislation such as SB52 will only further the fracking of natural gas for powering data centers.Cathy Cowan Becker, board president of Save Ohio Parks, said the oil and gas industry is in the pockets of many state politicians.“The oil and gas industry provides a lot of campaign donations for a lot of politicians in the state house, and it’s documented, for example, on the carbon capture and storage bill,” Cowan Becker said. “The oil and gas industry basically wrote that bill, and basically wrote amendments to that bill.”Cowan Becker said the burden of these fracking initiatives will be felt most in the Southeast region because the shale gas, trapped gas obtained through fracking, is found underneath the area of the state.“There are two main, what they call shale plates, where the gas and some oil, but mainly gas, is,” Cowan Becker said. “One is the Marcellus, which is largely in Pennsylvania but comes into Ohio, and then also either on top or underneath that, is the Utica Shale, which is largely Eastern Ohio, and most of the fracking nominations and projects I have seen are in the Utica Shale, and that's across Appalachian Ohio.”A growing issue for many residents of Southeast Ohio is compulsory unitization. Cowan Becker discussed how homeowners can be forced into allowing fracking under their property if a majority of the land area owners agree to it.“If there is a particular land area that they want to frack, and 65% of the owners of that land agree, that could be just one or two large owners, and they say ‘yeah, you can frack it,’ then everyone else is what's called unitized, or forced, pulled in,” Cowan Becker said. “The fracking is forced under their property, whether they want it or not.”Pokladnik had compulsory unitization occur under her land in Harrison County. According to Pokladnik, natural gas company Encino Energy had been petitioning for leases from homeowners in Harrison County until they received a majority.“If they found anybody who did not sign the lease, then we got a notification in the mail, and we got, I think it was in January, two years ago, that we were involved in forced pulling,” Pokladnik said. “They had the name of the well and they had the name of the company, Encino, and they told us the time of the zoom hearing … once we got on the hearing, I got on the phone and the guy in the ODNR, who does this, he made it quite clear that he did not want to hear anything about environmental stuff, only involving economic stuff.”Proponents of data centers cite job and economic growth to be the benefits. According to a study released by the Ohio Chamber of Commerce Research Foundation, over 95,000 jobs were supported in 2024 due to data centers. Additionally, the study claims data centers contributed $11.8 billion to the gross domestic product and $6.9 billion to labor income.Pokladnik commented on the long-term effects the increase in fracking could have on the southeast region, specifically due to the history of coal mining and strip mining.“I'm 70 years old, and I'm old enough to remember whenever they strip mined this area, Belmont County, Harrison, Jefferson,” Pokladnik said. “And when we were kids, we used to go out and fish in the strip pits, which were just areas where they had stripped and water filled up, or a stream fed into that area, and it never looked the same. And a lot of times it wasn't reclaimed, but you can't reclaim the damage that's being done right now.”

Antis in Ohio Join the Chorus Bashing AI Data Centers -Marcellus Drilling News- In honor of the new Wizard of Oz movie coming this week: “Lions and tigers and bears, oh my!” The environmental left version of that is, “Fossil fuels, fracking, and data centers, oh never!” Just yesterday, we outlined a trend we see in Pennsylvania (and on the national level): anti-fracking groups morphing into anti-data center groups (see More Evidence that PA’s Anti-Frackers are Now Anti-Data Center). The cancer is spreading. We now have evidence of anti-frackers in Ohio beginning to badmouth data centers. And it matters. Read More

Columbia Gas Open Season for Extra 500 MMcf/d of M-U Capacity in OH - Marcellus Drilling News Existing pipelines in the Marcellus/Utica region are testing the market for expansion. Two weeks ago, we told you that DT Midstream (50% owner of NEXUS Pipeline) is eyeing the growing AI data center market in northwestern Ohio as a customer for M-U molecules that flow through NEXUS (see DT Midstream Eyes Data Center/Power Market for NEXUS Pipeline). Now comes the news that TC Energy, the owner of the Columbia Gas Transmission (CGT) pipeline network, is conducting a non-binding open season to expand CGT capacity in Ohio, including in Columbus, Toledo, Lima, and other locations.

TC Energy Opens Ohio Pipeline Capacity Open Season Amid Rising Demand - TC Energy launched a non-binding open season to assess shipper interest in up to 500,000 Dth/d of new natural gas transportation capacity in Ohio, targeting rising demand from power generation, data centers and industrial growth. COLUMBUS, Ohio (P&GJ) — TC Energy has launched a non-binding open season to gauge market interest in up to 500,000 dekatherms per day of new natural gas transportation capacity on its Columbia Gas Transmission (TCO) system as Ohio braces for a major surge in energy demand. The open season runs from Nov. 12, 2025, through Jan. 9, 2026.TC Energy said its existing TCO infrastructure is positioned to connect Marcellus and Utica shale supply to rapidly growing demand centers across the state, driven by new manufacturing, power generation projects and more than 40 data centers planned for the Columbus and New Albany regions.“Ohio is poised for a major energy demand surge and TC Energy is in a leading position to serve this growth,” said David Brast, President, US Natural Gas Pipelines, TC Energy. “Natural gas is the foundation of reliable, affordable energy — and we stand ready to help power the next generation of Ohio’s economic growth.”Ohio’s natural gas demand is forecast to rise by more than 30% over the next decade — about 1.2 billion cubic feet per day — one of the highest increases nationally outside LNG export states. Natural gas currently produces about 60% of the state’s electricity, well above the U.S. average of 43%.TC Energy’s footprint in the region includes 5,000 miles of pipeline and more than $2 billion in investment since 2020, positioning the company to support what it calls a significant shift toward energy-intensive industries. Open Season Details:

• Capacity: Up to 500,000 Dth/d of incremental transportation
• Markets: Columbus, Dayton, Toledo and other growing industrial hubs
• Supply: Connections to shale gas production in Ohio, Pennsylvania and West Virginia
• Timing: Partial capacity could be in service by 2027, with full availability by 2029
• Anchor Shipper Terms: Long-term commitments of at least 200,000 Dth/d for 20 years

The open season is TC Energy’s first step in evaluating whether additional pipeline capacity will be built to meet Ohio’s projected long-term natural gas needs.

Priority Creditor Liens Do Not Block Charging Order In JobsOhio Case – Forbes -- EmKey Energy LLC was building a natural gas pipeline but needed financial assistance. That assistance came from a non-profit call JobsOhio, which in 2017 loaned $4 million to RH Entergytrans LLC, which was an affiliate of EmKey Energy. Yet another affiliate called EmKey Gathering LLC giving a guarantee of repayment. The pipeline was successfully finished, but the loan remained.The next year, 2018, EmKey Energy took over the loan obligations from RH Entergytrans and gave a new $4 million note to JobsOhio. At this time, EmKey Energy's CEO (a fellow by the name of Risberg) also personally guaranteed the repayment of the loan.Now advance forward two years, to 2020, and the COVID pandemic hit. This apparently caused the EmKey companies to financially wobble, like so many other businesses, and payments to JobsOhio was deferred for six months. But even with this six month deferral, Emkey Energy couldn't make its loan payments to JobsOhio and ultimately defaulted on the loan in the amount (presumably taking into account accrued interest) of about $4.3 million.The next year, 2021, JobsOhio sued Emkey Energy for the loan, as well as Risburg and Emkey Gathering for the breach of their guarantees. The litigation percolated for a number of years until January 16, 2025, when judgment was entered by the U.S. District Court of the Southern District of Ohio against all of EmKey Entergy and EmKey Gathering. The question of judgment against Risburg deferred until the maturity date of the loan on December 31, 2025.Literally the next day, January 17, 2025, JobsOhio moved for the entry of a charging order against Emkey Energy's interests in EmKey Gathering and another company called EmKey Gas Processing LLC. On June 2, 2025, JobsOhio also moved for a charging order against EmKey Energy's interests in a company called CGE Ventures LLC. In the meantime, JobsOhio had sought and obtained a Writ of Garnishment against apparently both EmKey Energy and EmKey Gathering. So, to recap, by June of 2025, JobsOhio held a Writ of Garnishment against EmKey Energy and EmKey Gathering, and two motions for charging order were pending to charge EmKey Energy's interests in EmKey Processing and CGE Ventures. While all of this was going on, JobsOhio had also sought a Writ of Garnishment in Houston before the Harris County District Court. The Harris County court had, however, refused to grant a Writ of Garnishment to JobsOhio because another lender, known as Hallan Invest, SA, had asserted that it had a priority lien on the assets of EmKey Energy and EmKey Gathering. Thus, in June of 2025, Hallan sought to intervene in the Ohio proceedings to protect its own interests and, based on the Harris County court's refusal to grant OhioJob's Writ of Garnishment, both EmKey Energy and EmKey Gathering asked the U.S. District Court to vacate the Writ of Garnishment which it had issued. Ultimately, the U.S. District Court issued an opinion as to JobsOhio's two motions for charging orders inJobsOhio v. EmKey Energy, LLC, 2025 WL 2780920 (S.D.Ohio, Sep. 30, 2025), which we will now examine. The court began its opinion with an overview that a charging order effectively "garnishes" the financial rights attached to the debtor's interest, and that the issuance of a charging order is discretionary by the court.To avoid the charging order, EmKey Energy argued that its interest in EmKey Gathering had "long-since been assigned to a prior lender", meaning Hallan. This meant that EmKey Energy no longer had an interest in EmKey Gathering that could be the subject of a charging order.Nice try, but no cookie. The court noted that when a member of an LLC assigns an interest, the interest being assigned is the right to distributions and the member remains a member (unless substituted, which did not happen here). The assignment to Hallan was not a permanent assignment, but only to secure Hallan's loan to EmKey Energy, and that assignment would disappear as quickly as Hallan's loan was paid off, i.e., it was a temporary assignment. Thus, if the charging order were to be issued, the charging order would still place a lien on EmKey Energy's interest in EmKey Gathering ― but it would be behind Hallan's assignment in priority. But the mere fact that there would be another creditor in line ahead of the creditor seeking a charging order is not a valid reason to deny the issuance of the charging order, as the court made clear:"Thus, assuming (without deciding) that EmKey Energy is correct and its membership interest is currently assigned to Hallan, Plaintiff is still entitled to charge EmKey Energy’s membership interest—even if EmKey Energy presently is not receiving any distributions. Under these circumstances, such a charging order would—at a minimum—ensure that EmKey Energy could not obtain a distribution for itself at some point in the future without first satisfying its debt to Plaintiff."As to EmKey Processing, EmKey argued that its interest in EmKey Processing was worthless because another lender had a priority lien and that company had never generated a profit. These arguments fell on deaf ears since the assignment of an interest or that another creditor has lien priority does not block the entry of a charging order. Further:"Just because EmKey Energy has not received a distribution in the past does not mean it may not receive a distribution in the future. This Court need not consider EmKey Energy’s arguments about the prospectivefinancial viability of EmKey Processing, or credit its essentially self-serving (and caveated) claim that it 'does not foresee ever receiving a distribution from EmKey Processing' given EmKey Processing’s 'current state.' " * * * As EmKey Energy implicitly concedes, conditions may change in the future, and EmKey Energy may one day receive a distribution from EmKey Processing. EmKey Processing’s present state has no bearing on Plaintiff’s right to a charging order as against EmKey Energy’s membership interest in it." [Emphasis in original.] This left the charging order sought by JobsOhio against EmKey Energy's interest in CGE Ventures. Here, EmKey Energy basically asserted the same arguments that it had for EmKey Gathering and EmKey Processing, and the court swatted away those arguments the same way.Thus, in the end, the court granted JobsOhio's motions for charging order against all three of EmKey Energies affiates. Not much to say here other than the court got it exactly right. The fact that another creditor already has security interests in an LLC does not prevent a court from issuing a charging order in favor of a debtor, albeit the debtor goes behind existing creditors to get paid. It is certainly no defense to a charging order, although of course debtors try to assert it all the time. Irth Solutions and Integrity Solutions Announce Partnership to Expand Pipeline Integrity Across North America.... --- Irth Solutions, a leader in cloud-native SaaS for asset integrity and risk management, and Integrity Solutions, a U.S.-based pipeline integrity and risk management consulting firm, today announced a strategic partnership to strengthen AIP implementation and operator support across North America.Irth Solutions, headquartered in Columbus, Ohio, delivers enterprise software for critical network infrastructure. Its Asset Integrity for Pipelines (AIP) platform is designed to transform pipeline integrity management through advanced data science and machine learning. It automates anomaly classification, condition evaluation, and fitness-for-service assessments, enabling operators to manage complex pipeline assets with full traceability, real-time reporting, and audit-ready compliance.This partnership aligns Irth’s powerful Asset Integrity for Pipelines (AIP) software with Integrity Solutions’ extensive integrity management and regulatory expertise. The collaboration is designed to provide pipeline operators with both advanced analytics and hands-on technical support, ensuring they can fully leverage AIP to modernize their integrity management programs. As part of this collaboration, Integrity Solutions will transition its anomaly analysis work from its Anomaly Data Manager software to Irth’s AIP platform, standardizing its integrity workflows on AIP to take advantage of its industry-leading data integration, corrosion growth modeling, anomaly analysis, and dig management capabilities.
Through the agreement, Integrity Solutions will:
• Deliver direct support for AIP implementation and onboarding, helping operators configure, integrate, and operationalize the platform.
• Leverage AIP’s data analytics and automation tools to enhance core services such as inline inspection (ILI) alignment, corrosion growth modeling, risk evaluation, and fitness-for-service assessments.
• Offer ongoing consulting expertise to bridge the gap between digital analytics and real-world integrity and compliance execution.
Empowering Operators Who Depend on Engineering Partners
Many operators rely heavily on third-party integrity engineering firms to execute their integrity programs. By partnering with Integrity Solutions, Irth ensures that those operators receive both world-class technology and knowledgeable, on-the-ground support from professionals who understand the nuances of integrity data, regulatory requirements, and pipeline operations. “We’re excited to partner with Integrity Solutions to better serve pipeline operators who rely heavily on outside consulting firms for their integrity management,” said Brandon Taylor, Chief Business Officer and General Manager of Asset Integrity at Irth Solutions. “Their on-the-ground expertise ensures AIP users get the full benefit of the platform—technically, operationally, and strategically.” “This partnership allows us to combine the data intelligence of Irth’s AIP platform with our real-world integrity, compliance, and pipeline operations expertise,” said Ryan Pivonka, CEO of Integrity Solutions. “Together, we’re helping operators accelerate insights, improve asset performance, and strengthen compliance through a more connected approach to integrity management.”

Talen Energy Gets Fed OK to Buy 2 M-U Gas-Powered Plants in PA, OH -- Marcellus Drilling News - In July, MDN told you that Talen Energy, a leading energy producer in the U.S., which owns and operates approximately 10.7 gigawatts (GW) of power infrastructure, had announced the acquisition of two gas-fired power plants: one located near Wilkes-Barre in northeastern Pennsylvania, and the other in Guernsey County, in eastern Ohio (see Talen Energy Buys 2 M-U Gas-Powered Plants in PA, OH for $3.8B). These types of transactions require approval from the federal government. Yesterday, Talen announced that both FERC (Federal Energy Regulatory Commission) and the DOJ (U.S. Department of Justice) have approved the transaction.

DEP: Crude Oil Released From Failed Conventional Oil Well Gathering Line Travels Nearly Length Of 2 Football Fields In Hamilton Twp., McKean County --On November 18, 2025, DEP did an inspection of the Backwards L 3 conventional oil well in response to a notification by Bull Run Resources LLC and found evidence of a significant spill of crude oil in Hamilton Township, McKean County. -An investigation found that a gathering pipeline had failed and released an unknown quantity of crude oil leaving a visible trail of contamination of about 690 feet-- nearly the length of two football fields. The crude oil traveled down a road ditch for about 500 feet, then through a culvert crossing under the road traveling another 190 feet before being stopped in a depression in the ditch.Luckily, the crude oil was stopped before reaching nearby Chappel Fork Creek.Remediation work with a mini-excavator was underway during the inspection making its way down the path of the crude oil removing contaminated soil and debris.DEP requested documentation that the contaminated soil was disposed of at an approved facility.DEP will conduct more inspections to document ongoing cleanup.DEP issued violations related to the crude oil release and requested a response from the owner by December 7. DEP inspection report.To report oil and gas violations or any environmental emergency or complaint, visit DEP’s Environmental Complaint webpage.Text photos and the location of abandoned wells to 717-788-8990.Visit DEP’s Compliance Reporting Database and Inspection Reports Viewer webpages to search their compliance records by date and owner.Sign up for DEP’s eNOTICE service which sends you information on oil and gas and other permits submitted to DEP for review in your community.Use DEP’s Oil and Gas Mapping Tool to find if there are oil and gas wells near or on your property and to find wells using latitude and longitude on well inspection reports. (Photos: Partially remediate site of crude oil gathering line failure from well (in upper left); Crude oil traveled down a ditch; Crude oil was stopped by a depression in the ditch, contains absorbent pads placed by owners.)

PA DEP Issues Air Permit for Largest Gas-Fired Power Plant in U.S.- Marcellus Drilling News -In April, Knighthead Capital Management, Homer City Redevelopment (HCR), and Kiewit Power Constructors Co. announced a plan to convert the former Homer City Generating Station, previously the largest coal-fired power plant in Pennsylvania (Indiana County, 50 miles east of Pittsburgh) into a more than 3,200-acre natural gas-powered data center campus, designed to meet the growing demand for artificial intelligence (AI) and high-performance computing (see Largest Gas-Fired Power Plant in the U.S. Coming in Western Pa.). The new gas-fired plant will be THE LARGEST gas-fired power plant in the country, capable of producing up to 4.5 gigawatts (4,500 MW) of electricity. The Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection (DEP) recently floated a draft air permit it planned to issue for the project, which the environmental left objected to (see Big Green Asks PA DEP to Reconsider Homer City Power Plant Permit). Fortunately, the DEP ignored the lefties and issued the permit this week.

Study Shows Urgent Need for Gas-Fired Power for AI Data Centers -- Marcellus Drilling News -- The American Energy + AI Initiative, a collaboration between the Hamm Institute and the American Energy + AI Coalition, held a summit on Monday in Washington, D.C., to address the urgent need for firm power to sustain the rapid growth of Artificial Intelligence (AI) in the U.S. Cabinet officials, including DOE Secretary Chris Wright, and industry leaders, discussed concrete steps to modernize federal tools and accelerate power production. During the summit, a new study was released (full copy below) emphasizing that America’s ability to lead in AI depends on quickly building reliable energy and highlighted the immediate need for more natural gas to meet the massive, unexpected demand from data centers.

More Evidence that PA’s Anti-Frackers are Now Anti-Data Center - Marcellus Drilling News -- Last week, MDN warned you that the enviro-left that opposes fracking and shale energy in Pennsylvania (because they have an irrational hatred of fossil fuels) has morphed into opposing data centers, because data centers need lots of electricity and the only practical way of providing that power is via natural gas-fired power plants (see Anti-Fossil Fuel Groups Like Protect PT Morph to Anti-Data Center). We noticed that Protect PT in western PA had succumbed to anti-data centerism. Today, we have more examples of PA-based anti-shale groups that are now anti-data center.

Radicals Sue NY, NJ to Block NESE Pipeline Water Permits -- Marcellus Drilling News -- In May, pipeline giant Williams filed a request with the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) to expedite the reissuance of a certificate for the Northeast Supply Enhancement (NESE) project, a $1 billion+ project designed to increase Transco pipeline capacity and flows of Marcellus gas heading into New York City and other northeastern markets (see Williams Files Request Asking FERC to Reissue NESE Cert in NY, NJ). In late August, FERC did just that (see FERC Reissues NESE Pipeline Project Certificate for NY, NJ). Two weeks ago, the states of New York and New Jersey issued federal Clean Water Act permits for their respective states, allowing NESE to be built (see Trump Won: New York & New Jersey Issue Water Permits for NESE Pipe). Radical anti-fossil fuel groups are now suing FERC and environmental agencies in New York and New Jersey to block the project.

Blackstone Invests $1.2 Billion to Build First Natural Gas Power Plant in West Virginia -Blackstone Energy Transition Partners has approved a $1.2 billion investment to build West Virginia’s first combined-cycle natural gas power plant, a 600-MW facility expected to create 500 construction jobs and meet rising AI-driven electricity demand. (P&GJ) — Blackstone Energy Transition Partners, through its affiliated funds, announced a $1.2 billion investment to build Wolf Summit Energy, a 600-megawatt combined-cycle natural gas power plant in Harrison County, West Virginia — the state’s first-ever facility of its kind. The project reached a Final Investment Decision (FID) last week, paving the way for construction to begin. Wolf Summit is fully contracted to serve Old Dominion Electric Cooperative (ODEC), which supplies power to about 1.5 million residents across Virginia, Maryland and Delaware. The new plant is expected to create 500 construction jobs and stimulate local economic development, while providing reliable power to meet growing electricity demand driven by AI and data center expansion. “Helping meet the rising demand for electricity from AI and other areas is among our highest conviction investment themes at Blackstone,” said Bilal Khan, Senior Managing Director, and Mark Zhu, Managing Director, at Blackstone. “We are proud that this project is expected to not only create hundreds of local jobs in West Virginia, but also generate more affordable, efficient and reliable power supply.” GE Vernova will supply its 7HA.02 gas turbine for the facility. “We look forward to working closely with Blackstone to complete development and start construction of this important project for the community,” said Dave Ross, President and CEO of GE Vernova’s Gas Power business in the Americas. West Virginia Governor Morrisey called the investment a signal of the state’s emergence as “the leading state in the country for energy growth and investment.” Blackstone said the project aligns with its broader energy transition strategy. The firm’s Energy Transition Partners unit has recently invested in Hill Top Energy Center (620 MW, Pennsylvania) and Potomac Energy Center (774 MW, Virginia), adding about 1,600 MW of new gas-fired generation in the U.S. over the past three and a half years.

31 New Shale Well Permits Issued for PA-OH-WV Nov 10 – 16 -Marcellus Drilling News- Back into the 30s! The number of new permits issued in the Marcellus/Utica last week was 31, after being 24 the week before. Over the past five weeks (including last week), the number of new permits issued has been 37, 39, 37, 24, and 31, respectively. Not bad at all. Pennsylvania issued 14 new permits last week, down from 16 the prior week. Ohio issued 5 new permits, down from 6 the prior week. West Virginia, which issued no new permits two weeks ago, soared, issuing 12 permits last week. ARMSTRONG COUNTY | ARSENAL RESOURCES | ASCENT RESOURCES | BEECH RESOURCES | BELMONT COUNTY | BRADFORD COUNTY | EQT CORP | EXPAND ENERGY | GULFPORT ENERGY | HARRISON COUNTY | INDIANA COUNTY |INR/INFINITY NATURAL RESOURCES | LYCOMING COUNTY | SENECA RESOURCES | SNYDER BROTHERS| TAYLOR COUNTY | TIOGA COUNTY (PA) | WESTMORELAND COUNTY | WETZEL COUNTY |XPR RESOURCES

Regional, National Indicators Suggest Greater Demand Call For Appalachian Natural Gas - The Appalachian Basin remains the undisputed king of U.S. natural gas, accounting for 31% of total domestic marketed production in 2024. However, the one-two combination of constrained pipeline takeaway capacity to transport the 35.6 billion cubic feet a day of production out of the basin and last year’s historically low regional wellhead prices conspired to mute basinwide output in both 2023 and 2024, constricting growth to less than 1 Bcf/d for both years combined. But the past is the past, and the future is all that matters. A confluence of favorable market indicators and upstream innovations have players in the nation’s largest gas province optimistic about answering the call for projected demand increases both in-basin and out-of-basin. The largest immediate difference-maker is in-basin demand growth from power generation to support artificial intelligence data centers. Included are two major power plant conversions from coal to gas at multibillion-dollar data center campuses in Pennsylvania at Homer City east of Pittsburgh and Shippingport on the Ohio River to the northwest. Other projects that will need Appalachian gas are in process in West Virginia and Virginia, and producers are anticipating opportunities to backfill gas volumes diverted to major data center power projects. Looking outside the Northeast region, a growing list of new and revitalized pipeline projects are in the works to carry more Appalachian gas to market demand centers. One example is Boardwalk Pipelines LP’s proposed Borealis pipeline project, which could carry up to 2 Bcf/d out of western Appalachia to as far south as the Louisiana Gulf Coast.On the upstream end, newly public company Infinity Natural Resources Inc. and established private player PennEnergy Resources are both eying aggressive double-digit production growth through the drill bit, while innovations deployed by the nation’s leading gas producer—Expand Energy Inc.—are breaking Marcellus drilling records and Seneca Resource is turning heads by developing the dry-gas deep Utica in Northeast Pennsylvania. Optimism about natural gas demand growth reinforced the appeal of Infinity Natural Resources as the Morgantown, W.V., company prepared throughout 2024 for an initial public offering in January after seven years as a private company, says Chief Executive Officer Zack Arnold.Ohio oil assets checkerboarded among acreage held by EOG Resources garnered most of the early attention from potential underwriters, he recalls. As talks progressed, investment bankers began asking more about gas properties. By the time shares under the INR ticker were offered on the New York Stock Exchange, Infinity was considered a gas production company with oil assets.Industry momentum from last November’s presidential election, a balanced asset base, and a focus on growth helped. This year, the company is anticipating 40% production growth after achieving 28% last year, Arnold reveals. After successfully conducting an initial public stock offering in January, Infinity Natural Resources is projecting an anticipated 40% increase in production across its portfolio of Utica oil locations in Ohio and Marcellus dry gas locations in Southwest Pennsylvania, following 28% growth in output last year.“The IPO was done with the expectation that our company is poised to grow both organically through the drill bit and is well positioned to do acquisitions,” he comments. “We are a small company, and it does not take a lot of growth to be meaningful. That is a component for sure, but our team has fought to bring locations forward, to drill faster, and to make sure we are drilling the most economic locations possible. That has really allowed us to grow quickly.”Current daily output is 33,100 barrels of oil equivalent across 125,000 net acres with 150 Utica oil locations in Ohio (19.5 MBoe/d) and 170 Marcellus dry gas locations in Southwest Pennsylvania (13.6 MBoe/d). Break-evens are $27.80/bbl and $1.35/MMBtu. respectively.Infinity plans to drill 20 wells this year with laterals averaging about 15,000 feet. Ohio acreage is especially suited for longer horizontals and completion designs are like those widely deployed in the basin.Coupled with growth through drilling, the company is open to the right acquisitions, says Arnold, whose resume includes work on the first Marcellus and Utica wells drilled by Chesapeake Energy. With 15 years together in Appalachia, Infinity’s management team can readily identify the best acquisition candidates from potential companies with neighboring assets.Previous transactions have included deals for undeveloped land, proved, developed and producing (PDP)-weighted assets, and everything in between, he notes, adding that any future deal would likely include acreage in Infinity’s home state of West Virginia. Expand Energy Corporation is relying on staff expertise and proven contractors to push the drilling envelope on its massive 1.26 million net acres in Northeast and Southwest Pennsylvania. And true to its name, Expand Energy is expanding. In its third-quarter earnings report issued in late October, the company announced that it acquired ~7,500 acres of undeveloped core Marcellus in Southwest Appalachia along with ~75,000 net acres in the Western Haynesville in the second half of 2025. Expand Energy is deploying AI and machine learning to optimize drilling results. A multi-agent AI tool includes a large language model with self-learning capabilities that uses available data on current and prior wells to help engineers make decisions such as selecting the best bottom-hole assembly for various portions of the wellbore. Other tools monitor real-time downhole motor conditions to recommend changes such as increasing penetration rate or changing out the bit, and analyze drilling parameters to adjust wellbore inclination or identify whether to directionally drill in slide or rotating mode. Formed from the 2024 merger of Chesapeake and Southwestern Energy, Expand maintains a nation-leading 7.3 Bcf/d of production while it shatters records in drilling feet per day in Northeast Pennsylvania and extends record lateral lengths in Southwest Appalachia and the Haynesville Shale, where it operates 664,000 acres.Record operational performance is driving capital efficiencies as the Oklahoma City-based company is positioned to bump production to 7.5 Bcf/d in 2026 and looks ahead to supply some of the 4 Bcf/d of additional demand from data center-driven power demand in the Northeast, according to Beard.AI is aiding operational achievements. Currently, employees are focusing on a drilling-related platform called KORAI™, formerly DrillOpsIQ. The multi-agent AI tool includes a large language model with self-learning capabilities that uses available data on current and prior wells to help engineers quickly identify drilling solutions that can include choosing the best bottom-hole assembly for various portions of the wellbore, he points out. Tools include SEER and Build and Turn. SEER enables the team to monitor real-time drilling motor conditions downhole and consider making changes as needed, including whether to accelerate the pace of drilling or trip pipe. Build and Turn can suggest changes to drilling parameters, including adjusting wellbore inclination through specific changes in weight on bit, rpm or flow rates, states Beard. It also analyzes steerable BHA tendencies in real-time to help identify which of two operational modes in directional drilling—slide or rotate—is best to control well trajectory.In Northeast Pennsylvania, the tools allow the team to understand differential pressure on motors and BHAs in co-development of the lower and upper Marcellus intervals, including offering monitoring and performance adjustments when navigating the challenging geological structures, Beard says.A data science and technology team representing drilling, completions, production, reservoir engineering and geosciences continually examines ways to utilize AI to optimize operations and achieve pre-determined economic thresholds, comments Dan Lopata, vice president of completions, facilities and production services, who heads AI deployment and development. Successful rollout in drilling operations will guide rollout for completions. Innovation for Seneca Resources is helping the Houston company exploit the deep, dry gas Utica in Northeast Pennsylvania as it works to boost access to more markets in and out of Appalachia, says Justin Loweth, president of Seneca and National Fuel Gas Midstream, both subsidiaries of National Fuel Gas Co., which includes a regulated utility. Producing over 1.25 Bcf/d across 1.2 million net acres, Seneca Resources plans to drill 25-28 wells this year as it accelerates deep Utica development, a strategy that is paying off handsomely. Average per-well production on the five-well Taft Pad in Tioga County is a choked-backed 30 MMcf/d, Loweth reports. The rate has remained constant for 10 months now with total average daily pad production of 150 MMcf. Seneca Resources is accelerating deep Utica development, a strategy that has in part helped it grow production by 20% while reducing capital spending by 18% over the past three years. Wells on its five-well Taft Pad in Tioga County, Pa., have averaged a constant choked-backed rate of 30 MMcf/d apiece for 10 months and counting.Overall, production has grown 20% in three years and capital spending has been lowered 18% as the company takes advantage of time-saving advancements in drilling, continual improvements in drilling sequencing, more efficient facility design and a 20% reduction in water costs.More is being spent on completions with changes in frac design, Loweth says. Stages of 150 feet are being stimulated with up to 3,000 pounds of proppant per foot. In-depth studies have led the company to adopt an average 1,800-foot spacing between laterals that extend to an average 13,000 feet on Utica wells and 10,000 feet on Marcellus wells. Across Seneca’s position, total integrated operating costs, including taxes, lease operating expenses, and general and administrative, are $0.47 per Mcf, he points out.Competitive advantages include higher returns on Utica wells. Also, more pipeline capacity is expected to open as producers that signed long-term sales agreements 10-15 years ago now weigh other options as contracts expire, he adds.At the same time, the region is looking at the possibility of multiple new pipeline projects that would provide additional access to out-of-basin markets and provide more transportation to less-served markets inside the region.“We have been spending the past two and a half years educating those pipeline companies about the amount of growth we think we could have within our area of operations given the quality and depth of the resource and the number of wells we have to drill,” Loweth remarks.Additional out-of-basin takeaway includes the proposed 190 MMcf/d Tioga Pathway, an affiliated project Seneca expects to supply. Earlier in the year, the company announced a separate shipping agreement to move an additional 50 MMcf/d to the Gulf Coast.In addition to data center demand growth, especially over the next five years, power needs are climbing for the PJM electrical grid serving Pennsylvania and other states, which is expected to drive gas demand even higher, Loweth offers. Behind it all there are plans to continually assess growth prospects, including the potential for acquiring companies active in the same area, he concludes. PennEnergy is anticipating 50% growth over the next five years as it co-develops the Upper Devonian and Marcellus on liquids-rich acreage north of Pittsburgh. The company uses a wine-rack well configuration with Upper Devonian laterals evenly spaced at 450 feet between each Marcellus lateral below, which are spaced 900 feet apart. In late October, EnCap Investments and affiliated partners closed on more than $2 billion in commitments to PennEnergy through a continuation fund.The company was recapitalized with over $2 billion in commitments through a continuation fund with EnCap Investments and affiliated partners, as announced by EnCap on Oct. 28. Launched in 2011, the private Pittsburgh player in 2014 began co-developing the Marcellus and Upper Devonian, which includes the Genesee, Middlesex and Burket Shale formations completed and produced as one bench.Co-development is done in a wine-rack configuration with deeper Marcellus laterals 900 feet apart, Bates explains. About 200 feet shallower, Upper Devonian laterals are evenly spaced at 450 feet between each Marcellus lateral below. The Marcellus and the Upper Devonian group do not communicate, he points out, and completion designs are similar.NGL output makes up about one-third of the company’s total production and on average about 45% of co-developed wells. About 70% of remaining inventory with a duration of 20-25 years will be co-developed at a planned clip of 25 wells annually.With net production of about 660 MMcfe/d, PennEnergy is one of the basin’s largest private producers and expects to turn in line 26 wells this year. A 12-well pad now under development includes six Marcellus and six Upper Devonian wells, Bates notes.About three quarters of remaining inventory includes wet gas, but the company can readily intersperse dry gas development, depending on commodity cycles, he states, adding that the company’s PDP decline rate of about 15%, excluding additional production from new wells and completions, is one of the lowest in the basin.

U.S. is world's leading natural gas producer -- From staff reports The United States produced 104 billion cubic f eet per day (Bcf/d) of natural gas – 75% more than the world’s second-largest natural gas producer, Russia – in 2023, the most r ecent year for which comprehensive worldwide data on natural gas production is available.The U.S. has been the world’s largest producer of natural gas since 2009. More recently, U.S. natural gas production has increased further, averaging 106 Bcf/d for the f irst half of 2025 (1H2025).Three regions in the U.S. are among the top 10 natural gas-producing areas in the world when ranked independently against other natural gas-producing countries:

• • The Appalachia region, in northeastern United States, encompasses the Marcellus and Utica shale plays and was ranked as the second-largest producer with 33 Bcf/d in 2023. More recently, production from the region has continued to average 33 Bcf/d in 1H2025.
• • The Permian region, in Texas and New Mexico, ranked fifth worldwide with 21 Bcf/d in 2023. Production from the Permian has since increased to average 25 Bcf/d in 1H2025.
• • The Haynesville region, in Texas, Louisiana, and Arkansas, ranked as the eighth-largest natural gas-producing area with 15 Bcf/d in 2023. Production from the Haynesville has declined slightly to average 14 Bcf/d in 1H2025.

Va. Gov-Elect Selects 3 Radicals from SELC to Co-Chair Energy Team -- Marcellus Drilling News -- We continue to laugh hysterically at those in the oil and gas industry in Virginia who think that the recently elected new Governor, Abigail Spanberger, will “keep her campaign promise” to support expanding the use of natural gas in the state (see O&G Tells Incoming Va. Gov. to Keep Pledge to Embrace NatGas (LOL)). You folks in Virginia are so screwed. Earlier this week, Spanberger announced three co-chairs for her energy policy team. One is a current attorney at the Southern Environmental Law Center (SELC). The other two are former SELC attorneys. Let us tell you about the SELC’s official position on natural gas…

Cost to Extend Gas Pipe to Proposed Maryland Power Plant is $800M -- Marcellus Drilling News - During October, the Maryland Public Service Commission (PSC) accepted applications for large-scale power projects, also known as “dispatchable” generation, that can provide energy quickly during periods of peak demand under the state’s Next Generation Act (seeMaryland Offers Expedited Gas Power Plant Approvals Next 30 Days). Constellation, one of the largest power generation companies in the U.S., took them up on the offer and submitted three projects under the program. One of the projects is a gas-fired power plant in Harford County. However, the cost of running a pipeline to feed it may tank the project before it’s begun—unless the state kicks in part of the pipeline cost, estimated at roughly $800 million.

Developers seek 7 more years to start Louisiana gas project - Developers of the Cameron LNG expansion project in southwestern Louisiana are asking the Department of Energy for nearly seven more years to start gas exports.In a notice set to be published Tuesday, DOE said Cameron LNG wants to amend an existing authorization in a few ways — such as delaying the deadline to begin commercial exports of liquefied natural gas to countries without a U.S. free trade agreement from May 2026 to March 2033. The expansion of the Cameron LNG facility, located outside Hackberry, Louisiana, is part of a wave of gas export projects underway in Texas and the Bayou State. The region’s facilities are a major reason why North America’s LNG export capacity could more than double by 2029.The United States exported more than 450 billion cubic feet of LNG in August, DOE said in a report last month. That was a 4 percent increase from the month before and a 24 percent jump from the same month last year.

Argent LNG Proposes Huge 25 MTPA LNG Terminal in Louisiana -Marcellus Drilling News -A brand new massive LNG export project has been announced for southern Louisiana. Argent LNG, LLC, a privately-owned company, announced a proposal to construct, own, and operate the Argent LNG Project, a world-scale liquefied natural gas (LNG) export terminal in Port Fourchon, Lafourche Parish, Louisiana. The plant would produce 25 million tons per annum (MTPA), ranking it among the top LNG export facilities in the country. The project will connect with the Kinetica interstate pipeline system, which in turn connects to the Tennessee Gas Pipeline (TGP) system.

Commonwealth LNG Wins Back Key Coastal Use Permit Following Court Remand - Louisiana regulators have reissued a key land-use permit for the proposed Commonwealth LNG export project after a state district court ordered an additional environmental review. At A Glance:

• Louisiana OCM reissues coastal use permit
• Project could add 9.5 Mt/y in export capacity
• FID targeted for year’s end

Venture Global Upscales Plaquemines LNG Expansion 40% as Export Wave Pushes Into 2030s --North American LNG export developers are moving forward with a series of capacity expansions and start-up extensions that will push the massive wave of feed gas demand further into the next decade. At A Glance:

• Plaquemines Phase 3 increased to 30 Mt/y
• Targeted for 2027 commissioning
• Cameron LNG expansion could shift to 2033

Cheniere: Rapid LNG Buildout Could Double U.S. Gas Demand for Liquefaction - U.S. LNG feedgas demand could more than double to 40 billion cubic feet per day in the coming years, Cheniere’s Anatol Feygin said, warning that the rapid buildout of liquefaction capacity may tighten gas markets and push prices higher by decade’s end. (Reuters) — U.S. liquefied natural gas plants could take on as much as 40 billion cubic feet of natural gas per day in coming years, Cheniere Energy Chief Commercial Officer Anatol Feygin said on Friday. U.S. plants are currently using a record 18 billion cubic feet per day of natural gas to produce LNG, according to data from financial firm LSEG. The increased demand for liquefaction could lead to natural gas prices, which have risen around 62% over the past year, becoming even more expensive toward the end of the decade, Feygin said at a seminar held by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City. "You kind of saw that in 22/23 coming out of COVID. LNG went back up to full utilization and then grew, so Nymex had an incursion into the high single digits. Very quickly supply responded," Feygin said, suggesting that natural gas drillers would be able to increase output to match the increased demand. While there are fears about an oversupplied market as new LNG capacity comes online, the executive said that Asian countries such as Bangladesh and Pakistan could be attracted by lower prices and end up increasing demand. The world will need to add 30 million metric tons of LNG every year to meet global demand growth, with most of the new capacity coming from the U.S., Feygin said. Rising construction costs have driven some of the recent final investment decisions in U.S. LNG, he said. "Over two-thirds of the FID this year was done because the fixed-priced EPC contracts were about to expire and there was a rush to maintain the construction cost of building the LNG plant," Feygin said. The U.S. LNG sector could eventually produce as much as 300 million tons per year, Feygin said, acknowledging that the sharp growth could challenge some producers if they're not prepared to weather periods of lower prices. Only 17% of the new capacity to come from plants that reached FID this year has been sold under long-term contracts, and many portfolio players are unprepared, he warned.

FERC Weighs Blanket Authorizations to Streamline LNG Permitting -- FERC is seeking comments on creating blanket authorizations for certain LNG and hydropower activities, aiming to streamline permitting and improve regulatory certainty for infrastructure developers. (P&GJ) — The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) is considering new blanket authorizations that could ease permitting and maintenance activities at liquefied natural gas (LNG) facilities and hydroelectric projects. The Commission opened two Notices of Inquiry (NOI) to gather industry feedback on ways to simplify regulatory approvals. “Energy infrastructure needs to be built now, and existing projects need to be maintained efficiently to ensure grid reliability today and in the future. We are taking a hard look at our processes and ways we can simplify certain activities,” FERC Chairman Laura Swett said. The first NOI asks whether FERC should revise its regulations to create streamlined procedures that would allow certain activities at LNG plants to proceed without case-specific orders under Section 3 or Section 7 of the Natural Gas Act. The agency is seeking information and stakeholder perspectives on how such a framework might be implemented. The second NOI focuses on hydropower facilities. FERC is asking for comments on whether its post-licensing review process should be updated to simplify approvals for maintenance, repairs, and infrastructure upgrades. It also seeks views on whether some activities could be carried out without case-specific authorization under the Federal Power Act. Comments on both inquiries are due 60 days after they are published in the Federal Register.

US LNG Industry Breaks Records | RBN Energy --U.S. LNG demand set new records last week, averaging 18.7 Bcf/d, more than 5 Bcf/d higher than the same time a year ago. Every U.S. terminal is now running at or above full contracted capacity. Corpus Christi and Freeport rebounded to full operations, driving the latest gains. The commissioning activity at Plaquemines ticked up slightly, averaging 3.92 Bcf/d. The U.S. hasn’t seen its highest level of feedgas demand yet this year and we expect it to rise even higher in the next month as the commissioning activity at Golden Pass ramps up. Last week, the terminal received FERC authorization to introduce feed gas to Train 1. So far, the terminal has only taken in minuscule amounts of feedgas, but that is expected to increase soon. Stay tuned to the LNG Voyager Weekly Report to glean the latest insights in the U.S. LNG industry.

Global Natural Gas Supply Surges as U.S. Cargoes Hit Another Record — LNG Recap --Ample LNG supplies, led by record output from the United States, continue to keep a lid on global natural prices, which have been rangebound for well over a month. North America LNG Export Flow Tracker chart showing daily U.S. LNG feed gas deliveries from Nov. 8–17, 2025, with volumes ranging from 18.32 to 18.86 million Dth. Includes facility-by-facility delivery and capacity utilization data for Corpus Christi, Freeport, Golden Pass, Calcasieu Pass, Cameron, Plaquemines, Sabine Pass, Elba Island, and Cove Point, plus indicators for Canadian and Mexican LNG sites. A U.S. map highlights the geographic locations of all listed export terminals. At A Glance:
Australia, Russia, U.S. LNG output up
U.S. feed gas hovering near 18 Bcf/d
Asian spot buying increases

Venture Global Files Applications for Plaquemines LNG Expansion | Rigzone -Venture Global Inc said Monday it had applied for a construction permit before the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission and export authorization before the Department of Energy (DOE) for a project to add over 30 million metric tons per annum (MTPA) of capacity to the Plaquemines LNG complex in Plaquemines Parish, Louisiana. The Arlington, Virginia-based producer said in a statement on its website it has increased the project's capacity by nearly 40 percent from the initial announcement earlier this year "due to the continued optimization of our liquefaction trains and strong market demand". "This bolt-on expansion will be built incrementally in three phases and consist of 32 modular liquefaction trains… This will bring the total peak production capacity across the entire Plaquemines complex to over 58 MTPA", Venture Global said. Chief executive Greg Sabel said, "This strategic step provides Venture Global with the optionality to develop a scalable project that can efficiently meet market needs as they evolve". When it announced the brownfield expansion March 6, initially comprising 24 trains, Venture Global estimated the investment to be around $18 billion. Venture Global shipped the first LNG cargo from Plaquemines LNG late 2024. The shipment to Germany was for Energie Baden-Wuerttemberg AG. "Plaquemines LNG is one of the two fastest greenfield projects of its size to reach first production and, now, first cargo delivery, along with Venture Global's first project, Calcasieu Pass", Venture Global said in a statement December 26, 2024. Sabel said then, "In just five years, Venture Global has built, produced and launched exports from two large-scale LNG projects which has never been done before in the history of the industry". Venture Global said at the time, "Like Venture Global’s Calcasieu Pass project, Plaquemines has exported its first cargo far in advance of the U.S. Department of Energy's requirement to commence exports within seven years from issuance of the non-FTA [free-trade agreement] export authorization".

Atlantic LNG Freight Rates at Highest in Nearly 2 Years -- The cost of transporting liquefied natural gas across the Atlantic Ocean surged to the highest in almost two years, as expanding exports from North America boosted demand for tankers. The spot rate to hire an LNG vessel for delivery from the US to Europe jumped 19 percent to $98,250 per day on Monday, the highest since January 2024, according to Spark Commodities, which tracks shipping prices. Costs to hire a tanker in the Pacific Ocean also jumped 15 percent to the highest in over a year, the data show. This is a stark turnaround for the market, which had languished at rock-bottom prices for most of the year amid a glut of available ships. Output from North America has increased steadily as new projects ramp up, requiring more vessels to deliver the fuel to customers in Europe and Asia. The 30-day moving average for LNG exports from North America has climbed nearly 40 percent year-to-date, according to ship-tracking data compiled by Bloomberg. Higher freight rates threaten to widen the spread between Asian and European gas prices, as it will be more expensive to send US shipments to the Pacific. A company booked a vessel for December in the Atlantic for about $100,000 per day, traders said. Likewise, when freight rates were lower, companies sent some vessels to Asia, further exacerbating a shortage of ships in the Atlantic, they added. Still, the surge in charter rates is likely to have peaked and has "limited potential to run much higher," according to Han Wei, a BloombergNEF analyst. "On the LNG tanker supply side, we'll continue to see strong new build deliveries, which should keep spot charter rates in check," he said.

Some U.S. LNG Offtakers Hoping to Swap, Delay Loading Windows Amid Surge in Freight Rates -Some U.S. LNG offtakers are looking to delay cargo loadings as freight rates surge to some of their highest levels in nearly two years and add to the costs of moving shipments overseas. At A Glance:

• Atlantic freight rates highest in two years
• Some seeking later loading windows
• Rally could fizzle as market loosens

Souki Sees Need for U.S. LNG Developers to Shift Strategy as New Era Dawns --As another massive wave of supply starts hitting the water, LNG industry veteran Charif Souki is betting the future of the global natural gas market will not only be defined by the size of U.S. exports but by American innovation.. At A Glance:
Supply glut expected to pressure contracts
U.S. LNG capacity approaching 30 Bcf/d
80-plus Mt/year indexed to Henry Hub

ExxonMobil to boost NGL takeaway with Bahia pipeline expansion -- ExxonMobil plans to expand the Enterprise Products Bahia natural gas liquids (NGL) pipeline, increasing its capacity by 400,000 barrels per day and bringing total throughput to 1 million barrels per day. The project is designed to provide additional takeaway for rising NGL volumes from the Permian Basin and improve access to the U.S. Gulf Coast refining and petrochemical complex. As part of the investment, ExxonMobil will add a new extension from its Cowboy Central Delivery Point in Eddy County, New Mexico. The new segment, known as the Cowboy Connector Pipeline, will transport NGLs from the Delaware and Midland basins into the Bahia system for fractionation and downstream processing. According to the company, the project is expected to strengthen logistics for ExxonMobil’s growing Permian operations and support long-term development plans in the basin. By increasing access to fractionation, chemical feedstocks and Gulf Coast export terminals, the expansion provides greater flexibility for moving raw NGL mix into domestic and global markets.The additional NGL volumes are expected to supply U.S. chemical plants with key components used in plastics, synthetic materials and other industrial products. The transaction remains subject to regulatory approvals. ExxonMobil and Enterprise Products expect the expansion to enter service by late 2027 following a targeted closing in early 2026.

Natural Gas Market Jolted: NYMEX Futures Plunge 4.5% Amidst Warming Outlook and Abundant Supply – The benchmark NYMEX "front month" futures price for natural gas experienced a sharp single-day dive on Monday, November 17, falling by 20.5 cents, or a significant 4.5%. This abrupt decline saw the December futures contract settle at $4.361 per million British thermal units (MMBtu), though the price successfully remained firmly within the $4 range. The immediate implication of this notable dip is a palpable shift in short-term market sentiment, signaling a bearish outlook for the very near future, primarily driven by evolving supply and demand dynamics, but not necessarily a complete collapse of the broader upward trend witnessed in recent weeks. This sudden price correction highlights the inherent volatility of the natural gas market, where even minor shifts in fundamental drivers can trigger substantial movements. For the energy market, this suggests traders are rapidly adjusting to fresh information, particularly concerning weather-driven demand expectations and robust supply figures. While consumers may anticipate a potential, albeit delayed, relief in energy costs, producers face immediate pressure on revenue expectations, underscoring the delicate balance within the sector. The specific 20.5-cent (4.5%) single-day dive in NYMEX natural gas front-month futures prices occurred on Monday, November 17, 2025, with the December contract settling at $4.361/MMBtu. This sharp decline was primarily a confluence of bearish weather forecasts and abundant supply reports, which collectively overshadowed earlier bullish sentiment that had pushed prices higher. A critical trigger was the updated weather outlook indicating warmer-than-normal temperatures across key consumption regions, particularly the eastern half of the United States, for the period of November 22-26. This significantly reduced expectations for immediate heating demand, with the Global Forecast System model specifically trending 8 heating degree days (HDDs) warmer over the preceding weekend. Compounding this was robust U.S. natural gas production, with Lower 48 dry gas output reported at 110.0 Bcf/day on November 17, a 7.1% year-over-year increase and near record highs. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) had also recently raised its forecast for 2025 U.S. natural gas production, contributing to the perception of ample supply. The timeline leading up to this event saw December futures gain 25.0 cents in the week prior to November 17, fueled by initial weather models hinting at a cold start to December. However, this momentum began to dissipate on Friday, November 14, when the EIA released its weekly natural gas storage report, revealing a larger-than-expected injection of 45 Bcf into storage for the week ended November 7. This figure surpassed the market consensus of 34 Bcf and the five-year weekly average of 35 Bcf, pushing U.S. natural gas inventories 4.5% above their five-year seasonal average. Over the weekend of November 15-16, the market absorbed this bearish data, and updated forecasts from entities like NatGasWeather confirmed the warming trend, setting the stage for Monday's significant sell-off. A 4.5% single-day dive in NYMEX natural gas prices, even while remaining in the $4 range, creates a clear delineation of potential winners and losers across the energy landscape. The impact largely hinges on a company's position in the value chain and its hedging strategies. Natural gas producers are typically the primary losers in such a scenario. Lower spot and futures prices directly translate to reduced revenue for every unit of gas sold, impacting their profitability and cash flow. Companies with a higher proportion of unhedged production will feel this impact most acutely. Major U.S. natural gas producers like EQT Corporation, the largest in the U.S., Chesapeake Energy, Antero Resources and Southwestern Energy are highly sensitive to these price movements. While diversified supermajors such as ExxonMobil and Chevron also produce natural gas, their broader portfolios offer some insulation. Effective hedging, using instruments like fixed-price swaps, can mitigate the immediate revenue hit for producers, securing a more stable income stream. However, those with less effective hedging or expiring contracts would bear the full brunt of the price decline. Conversely, industrial consumers and many utility companies often emerge as beneficiaries. Industrial players that rely on natural gas as a primary fuel for energy or a feedstock for manufacturing, such as chemical companies like Dow Inc. and LyondellBasell Industries, or fertilizer manufacturers like CF Industries Holdings (NYSE: CF), see a direct reduction in their operating costs. This can lead to improved profit margins and enhanced competitiveness. For utilities, particularly those operating natural gas-fired power plants, lower natural gas prices reduce their fuel costs, potentially improving profit margins in deregulated markets or allowing them to pass savings to consumers in regulated environments.

US Natural Gas Futures Climb 4% With LNG Flows, Cold - U.S. natural gas futures climbed about 4% on Wednesday on near-record flows to liquefied natural gas export plants and forecasts for higher demand than previously expected as the weather turns colder than normal going into December. Front-month gas futures for December delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 17.9 cents, or 4.1%, to settle at $4.550 per million British thermal units (mmBtu). LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 states rose to 109.1 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in November, up from 107.3 bcfd in October and a record monthly high of 108.3 bcfd in August. Record output so far this year has allowed energy companies to stockpile more gas than usual. There was about 4% more gas in storage than normal for this time of year. Meteorologists forecast temperatures across the country will remain warmer than normal through November 26 before turning colder than normal from November 28 to December 4. LSEG projected average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, would hold around 116.6 bcfd this week and next. Those forecasts were higher than LSEG's outlook on Tuesday. The average amount of gas flowing to the eight big LNG export plants operating in the U.S. rose to 18.0 bcfd so far in November, up from a record 16.6 bcfd in October. In other LNG news, the Imsaikah LNG vessel continued to move across the Atlantic Ocean to Exxon Mobil QatarEnergy's 2.4-bcfd Golden Pass LNG export plant under construction in Texas, according to LSEG data and analysts' comments. The ship, expected to arrive at Golden Pass around November 29, is carrying LNG from Qatar that traders and analysts say will be used to cool equipment as part of the commissioning of the plant. The facility is expected to start producing LNG later this year or early next year. Around the world, gas traded near $11 per mmBtu at the Dutch Title Transfer Facility benchmark in Europe and at a two-month high of $12 at the Japan Korea Marker benchmark in Asia.

US natgas futures up 2% on near-record LNG flows and cold December forecast — U.S. natural gas futures climbed about 2% to a one-week high on Friday with flows to liquefied natural gas export plants back near record highs on the expected return to full service of Freeport LNG's plant in Texas and on a planned jump in demand in two weeks with the coming of some colder-than-normal weather. Front-month gas futures for December delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 10.6 cents, or 2.4%, to settle at $4.580 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), their highest close since November 13. That put the front-month up about 0.3% for the week, marking the first time prices have increased for five weeks in a row since November 2024. During those five weeks, the contract has gained about 52%. Looking ahead, the premium of futures for January over December fell to around 16 cents per mmBtu, its lowest since September 2022. LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 states rose to 109.4 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in November, up from 107.4 bcfd in October and a record monthly high of 108.3 bcfd in August. Record output so far this year has allowed energy companies to stockpile more gas than usual. There was about 5% more gas in storage than normal for this time of year. Meteorologists forecast temperatures across the country will remain warmer than normal through December 6 with some colder-than-normal days around November 28-29 and December 3-5. LSEG projected average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, would rise from 118.8 bcfd this week to 119.7 bcfd next week and 131.3 bcfd in two weeks. The forecasts for this week and next were higher than LSEG's outlook on Thursday. The average amount of gas flowing to the eight big LNG export plants operating in the U.S. rose to 18.0 bcfd so far in November, up from a record 16.6 bcfd in October. In LNG export news, Freeport LNG's plant in Texas was on track to take in more gas on Friday in a sign that one of its three liquefaction trains returned to service after shutting down on Thursday. Around the world, gas was trading at a 15-month low of about $10 per mmBtu at the Dutch Title Transfer Facility benchmark in Europe, but at a three-month high near $12 at the Japan Korea Marker benchmark in Asia.

Higher U.S. Natural Gas Prices Coming as Demand Boom Outpaces Low-cost Supply, Experts Say -- A surge in export demand, coupled with growing domestic power needs, is expected to drive U.S. benchmark Henry Hub natural gas prices higher as resources become exhausted, two experts told NGI. Chart comparing NGI’s Henry Hub natural gas daily and forward prices with Lower 48 U.S. natural gas demand from Nov. 2024 through Dec. 2025, showing price fluctuations between $2-10/MMBtu and rising demand driven by residential, commercial, industrial, power generation, LNG sendouts, and Mexican exports.At A Glance:
Export demand accelerates
Henry Hub strengthens
Low-cost production stressed

Natural Gas Price Spread Compression Ahead as LNG Capacity Surges, Goldman Sachs Says - A look at the global natural gas and LNG markets by the numbers

• $4.04/MMBtu: Global natural gas benchmarks are expected to converge closer together in the next three years as LNG supply explodes, which could temporarily close the profitable arb curve for U.S. exports, according to Goldman Sachs. Analysts with the bank forecast Title Transfer Facility (TTF) benchmark for Europe could average around $4.04/MMBtu, in 2028 2029. During the same period, the Japan-Korea Marker was seen at $4.40 in 2028 and $4.45 in 2029. Analysts estimated Henry Hub could average $2.70 and $2.75.
• 17.72 Bcf/d: Feed gas nominations to U.S. terminals have slightly moderated this week, but still remain at elevated levels as commissioning at Plaquemines LNG continues. Feed gas nominations averaged 17.72 Bcf/d during the week, down from more than 18 Bcf/d the week prior. Nominations to Venture Global’s facility in southeast Louisiana Wednesday were reported at 104% of pipeline design capacity, according to NGI calculations of pipeline flow data.
• $10.40/MMBtu: European gas prices have dropped through the winter curve as traders weigh how a potential peace deal between Russia and Ukraine may impact available supplies. The prompt TTF contract settled around $10.40/MMBtu Wednesday after reaching a weekly high of $10.84 the day before. TTF contracts dropped an average of 23 cents from January through March. Analysts from trading firm Mind Energy wrote the market seemed to be shrugging off approaching cold weather and pipeline constraints from Norway and Algeria.
• 4 Bcm: DTEK Group, Ukraine’s largest private energy company, has secured its first volumes of U.S. LNG through Lithuania as it leans on supplies from the country to meet an expected supply shortfall. The firm imported Monday (Nov. 19) a roughly 100 Mcm cargo from Venture Global Inc.’s Plaquemines terminal to Lithuania’s Klaipeda import facility. It was the first LNG cargo purchased by DTEK on a free-on-board basis. DTEK estimates around 4 Bcm in LNG supply will need to be imported through alternative routes to meet Ukraine’s winter demand.

Gas Processing Frac Spread Drops to Three-Year Low - The frac spread — a rough gauge of the value of extracting NGLs from raw gas — has fallen off a cliff, sinking from $4.93/MMBtu in late January to just $1.89/MMBtu on Friday (red dashed circle, right graph below). That’s the weakest showing in three years.The frac spread is simply the differential between the price of natural gas and the weighted average price of a typical basket of NGLs on a dollars-per-MMBtu basis. The primary culprit in the current squeeze is the price of natural gas, up 50% over the same ten-month timeframe that the frac spread declined by 62%. The basket of NGLs declined 17% over the same period. As shown in the left graph below, the average annual Frac Spread has ranged between a low of $2.38/MMbtu in 2020 to a high of $5.30/MMBtu in 2021. Since 2017, it has averaged just over $4.00/MMbtu. The drop below $2.00/MMbtu last week is highly unusual, and a red flag for gas processors and their customers. The Frac Spread will likely stay weak as long as natural gas prices remain above $4/MMbtu and crude prices (which influence most NGL prices) remain in the low-$60s/bbl or below.

Chevron Powering Up (Literally) in Permian With Natural Gas-to-AI Strategy -- Chevron Corp. is deepening its long-term commitment to natural gas, positioning the fuel as a core export commodity and a power generation driver for the industrial boom, executives said. (NGI's Waha Daily gas price snapshot showing historical volatility.) At A Glance:
LNG exports climb despite oversupply outlook
2.5 GW Permian project launched
Eastern Med gas output jumping

Greens challenge Interior for bypassing NEPA in offshore lease sales - Green groups are suing the Trump administration for planning an oil lease sale in the Gulf of Mexico without first conducting an environmental review. The lawsuit — filed on Tuesday — asks the U.S. District Court for the District of Columbia to vacate and stop the Dec. 10 lease sale. The challenge comes a week after the Interior Department told POLITICO’s E&E News that it was forgoing environmental reviews under the National Environmental Policy Act for all of the offshore lease sales mandated in the Republican megalaw. “If you’re going to auction off 80 million acres of our public waters to the oil industry, the least you can do is not break the law in a plethora of ways as you do it,” George Torgun, a senior attorney at Earthjustice said in a Tuesday statement. Earthjustice brought the lawsuit on behalf of Friends of the Earth and Healthy Gulf; other plaintiffs include the Center for Biological Diversity, Natural Resources Defense Council and the Sierra Club.The GOP megalaw, which President Donald Trump signed in July, directs Interior’s Bureau of Ocean Energy Management to hold 30 oil and gas lease sales over the next 15 years in what Trump has renamed the Gulf of America. The law also mandates six lease auctions in Alaska’s Cook Inlet between now and 2032.

October Upswing — Gulf Coast Re-Exports of Canadian Heavy Crude Oil Stage a Recovery -Re-exports of Canadian heavy crude oil are estimated to have been 145 Mb/d in October 2025 (rightmost stacked columns in chart below), an increase of 45 Mb/d from September, itself a six-month low, and 145 Mb/d more than a year ago based on tanker tracking data compiled by Bloomberg. Since the departure last year of China (red columns) from the Gulf Coast in favor of Canada’s west coast as a buyer of Canadian crude, two nations have remained prominent in purchasing Canadian barrels, partly motivated by logistical proximity. India (gray columns) lifted 63 Mb/d, nearly twice the level of September (33 Mb/d) and 63 Mb/d more than a year ago. Spain (blue columns) bought 83 Mb/d, 17 Mb/d more than September and 83 Mb/d more than a year ago. Data for the most recent three months are derived from Bloomberg tracking estimates as official monthly data from the U.S. Census Bureau beyond July remains unavailable until further notice.The increase in re-exports may be reflecting a shift in purchase patterns by India and Spain as they attempt to maneuver around sanctions on portions of the global oil tanker fleet and those directed against Russia. This is of particular importance for India, a frequent and sizeable buyer of discounted Russian crude in the past few years. Its latest increase in purchases of Canadian heavy oil from the Gulf may be a possible first step to higher volumes in the future as it diversifies its crude import slate to a broader suite of exporting nations.

U.S. Gasoline Inventories Sink To 12-Year Lows | OilPrice.com -Previously, we reported that the pivot by Indian refiners away from Russian oil has triggered a spike in oil product prices even as crude prices remain largely unchanged. To wit, ICE Brent-Gasoil crack spreads doubled from the $15-17/bbl range held in the first half of the year, to a 21-month high above $32/bbl, good for a nearly 70% increase in the year-to-date. Gasoil is a middle distillate mainly used in commercial and agricultural sectors for off-road vehicles, machinery, and generators. And now reports have emerged that the distillates market continues to tighten even as crude prices remain weak. According to new data by the Energy Information Administration (EIA), gasoline inventories clocked in at 205.06 million barrels (mb) for the week ending 7th November, 8.2mb lower than the five-year average and the lowest level in 12 years. For consumers across the U.S., fuel costs continue to edge higher. Gasoline prices have seen modest gains over the past year, while diesel has climbed by roughly 25 cents per gallon, according to the American Automobile Association. Regional differences remain wide, but diesel remains under particular strain as U.S. distillate inventories — including diesel and heating oil — have dropped to their lowest levels in more than a decade. The decline stems from stronger export demand to Europe, reduced refinery capacity, and limited stockpiling ahead of winter. While the Energy Information Administration expects diesel prices to stabilize somewhat in 2026, they are likely to stay elevated compared to historical averages. U.S. distillate inventories were 110.91 million barrels, 9.3mb below the five-year average and close to the bottom of their five-year range. U.S. distillate inventories are now at the lowest level since mid-July as we move into the high-demand winter season, which should continue to support product strength. Meanwhile, strength in product cracks continues, with the ICE gasoil-Brent crack now exceeding $34 per barrel (bbl), the highest level since September 2023. The price differential has now stayed above $30/bbl for 10 trading days. Oil markets, on the other hand, continue to be weak and dominated by bearish supply sentiment, with recent Ukrainian attacks on Russian energy infrastructure failing to give oil prices a significant boost. Brent crude for December delivery was trading at $63.32/bbl at 12 pm ET on Wednesday, less than a dollar higher from a week ago, while the corresponding WTI contract was changing hands at $59.28/bbl, up from $58.26/bbl seven days ago. Last week, the port of Novorossiysk, in Krasnodar Krai, was targeted by Ukrainian missiles and drones, with a focus on the Sheskharis oil terminal. The giant terminal has an export capacity of ~2.2 million barrels per day (mb/d), and loadings were suspended for two days. Ukraine’s attacks on Russia’s Black Sea export terminals have, however, highlighted the vulnerability of exports via the southern route. According to commodity analysts at Standard Chartered, this is particularly important, with the weather closing down the Northern Sea Route via the Arctic over the winter. The winter transit routes to Asia will then be limited to the Suez Canal, taking 10 days longer on average. These longer transit routes have contributed to a 294 million barrels Y/Y surge in seaborne crude to an all-time high of 1.37 billion barrels as of 14 November. Russian crude exports have, however, remained relatively steady, although StanChart has predicted they will slow down sharply after the November 21 deadline for sanctions on Lukoil and Rosneft kicks in. The sanctions could also be contributing to the large increase in volumes of oil on water. U.S. natural gas prices remain elevated, with Henry Hub gas quoted at $4.55/MMBtu in Wednesday’s session, nearly double in the year-to-date. Expectations of high demand have been driving prices higher, despite inventories remaining elevated. Surging demand for liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports, increased domestic power needs from factors like data centers, and strong heating demand have helped prop U.S. gas prices. Meanwhile, production growth has not kept pace with this escalating demand. The production backlog for utility-scale gas turbines has pushed back equipment delivery dates, further straining the supply-demand balance. In contrast, Europe’s gas prices remain depressed, with TFF natural gas futures falling close to an 18-month low at $30.870/MW, with warmer weather expected to lower heating demand. European natural gas inventories have been declining as the continent moves through the shoulder season into prolonged net withdrawals. According to Gas Infrastructure Europe (GIE), Europe’s gas inventories stood at 95.784 billion cubic metres (bcm) on 17 November, above the mandatory 90% storage target set for November 1st. The relatively high level is a positive sign for meeting winter demand, as it can supply up to one-third of the EU's annual gas consumption. Weather patterns across north-west Europe have pushed temperatures sharply lower; however, they remain supportive of renewable power generation, with high pressure supporting solar and wind, rather than the dreaded ‘dunkelflaute’ conditions that can be seasonally prevalent. This, in part, has dampened European natural gas prices. Dunkelflaute is a German term describing a period of low wind and solar power generation, often occurring in winter. During these times, which can last for hours or days, there is little to no wind, and cloud cover prevents solar panels from producing much electricity. This phenomenon poses challenges for electricity grids that rely heavily on renewables because energy demand, particularly for heating, is often high.

Major oil spill leaks into the Kenduskeag Stream - 75 Gallons of heating oil spilled into the Kenduskeag Stream in Bangor Monday morning. It happened around 6 a.m., when a truck driver was delivering oil to Print Bangor on Central Street. The Maine Department of Environmental Protection arrived soon after to establish the cleanup process. According to a responder from the DEP, the incident happened after the driver hit a concrete abutment, damaging the oil release. A boom was put into the stream to prevent the oil from flowing into the Penobscot river. Ben Metzger, who owns the business, saw the entire mishap unfold on his security cameras. “It flowed for about two and a half minutes, just total free flow,” he said. Metzger said his property was unscathed. “By the time I got here DEP was already on site checking out the stream and everything. I don’t think anything got in the building fortunately,” he said. The Maine DEP urges anyone who works along the Kenduskeag Stream or in downtown Bangor to call them if you notice any fumes or vapor issues inside.

Oil Spill Cleanup Underway Southwest of Salem - A cleanup is underway on an oil spill near the intersection of Lazy Acres Road and Selmaville Road southwest of Salem. The Illinois EPA and the Illinois Department of Natural Resources’ Office of Oil and Gas Resource Management have been assisting the responsible party with cleanup since the spill was reported on Wednesday. It is estimated that five barrels (210 gallons) of crude oil were released from a ruptured flowline. The release has been contained by an earthen dam and catch pit, and repairs have been made to the flowline. Cleanup, which includes recovery of oil and removal of impacted vegetation, is ongoing under the Illinois EPA’s supervision.

Enbridge Rolls Forward with Oil Pipeline Expansion Plans -- Enbridge, North America’s largest energy pipeline company, reported its Q3 2025 earnings on November 7 in which it announced the sanctioning of its Southern Illinois Connector Project. One week later, the company announced additional projects that will expand and enhance flows on its Mainline that ships crude oil from Western Canada to the U.S. Midwest.

• Southern Illinois Connector (orange lines in map below): a new pipeline that will connect the terminus of the Platte Pipeline at Wood River, IL to Patoka, IL and the origin of the Energy Transfer Crude Oil Pipeline (jointly owned with Energy Transfer) that ships crude to Nederland, TX. With 100 Mb/d of firm contract capacity in place, it is expected to enter service in 2028. It will also involve a 30 Mb/d expansion of the Express/Platte Pipeline system and utilize 70 Mb/d of existing capacity on the Spearhead Pipeline.
• Mainline Optimization Phase 1: the company will pursue a 150 Mb/d capacity expansion of the Mainline (purple line in map below) through a combination of upstream and terminal enhancements; a 100 Mb/d capacity expansion of its Flanagan South Pipeline (green line) utilizing terminal enhancements and additional pumping stations. Both expansions have an anticipated in service of 2027.
• The company stated that it is also in active discussions for its Mainline Optimization Phase 2 which could further enhance throughput capacity on the Mainline by 250 Mb/d by 2028.

Let’s Get It Started – Enbridge In Early Stages of Major Crude Oil Pipeline Expansion Program - Buoyed by record crude oil flows through its Mainline system and the expectation of further growth in Western Canadian production, Enbridge has been sanctioning more pipeline expansion projects and discussing plans for adding still more capacity later this decade. The magnitude of the broader effort is significant, adding up to 500 Mb/d of incremental capacity on key parts of its far-flung crude oil pipeline network by 2028, including a project with Energy Transfer involving their Dakota Access Pipeline (DAPL). In today’s RBN blog, we’ll discuss Enbridge’s newly ramped-up plans.As we said in The Race Is On this past summer, two of the surest bets in the North American energy space these days are that (1) Western Canadian production of heavy crude oil will continue rising and (2) new pipeline takeaway capacity will be needed to handle those increasing volumes. No one is a bigger player in the region’s crude oil pipeline business than Enbridge, whose Mainline system (dark-blue line in Figure 1 below) delivered an average of 3.1 MMb/d to the U.S. Midwest in Q3 2025 — an all-time high. Enbridge also owns all or part of several pipelines that either transport crude to the U.S. via a more westerly route (the company’s Express-Platte system; light-purple line) or take crude from the Mainline system to the Cushing (OK) and Patoka (IL) hubs — and from there to the Gulf Coast. (More on those in a moment.) Enhancements to the Mainline system, which consists of more than a dozen distinct pipelines (Lines 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 11, 14, 61, 62, 64, 65, 67 and 78), have been a fairly regular thing over the years, a notable example being the Line 3 Replacement Project completed in 2021. It would be fair to say, however, that the multifaceted program Enbridge has now laid out may be the largest to date.As part of the company’s Q3 earnings announcement and conference call on November 7, Enbridge said it has made final investment decisions (FIDs) on two projects. The first is the Southern Illinois Connector (dashed yellow line), a new 56-mile, 100-Mb/d pipeline that Enbridge and Energy Transfer will build from Wood River, IL, to Patoka. The second project is a 30-Mb/d expansion of Express-Platte, which will increase the capacity of that long-haul system from Hardisty, AB, to Wood River to 340 Mb/d. Those expansions — plus the utilization of 70 Mb/d of existing-but-unused capacity on the Flanagan-to-Wood-River portion of Enbridge’s 193-Mb/d Spearhead Pipeline (light-blue line) — will provide a pathway for 100 Mb/d of fully contracted, Alberta-to-Gulf-Coast pipeline capacity.Of that 100 Mb/d, 70 Mb/d will move southwest on Spearhead from Enbridge’s Flanagan (IL) hub to Express-Platte, then east on that to Wood River; the other 30 Mb/d will flow south and east on Express-Platte, also to Wood River. From there, the 100 Mb/d will be transported on the new Southern Illinois Connector to Patoka, where it will flow into the now-underutilized 470-Mb/d Energy Transfer Crude Oil Pipeline (ETCOP; magenta line) to Nederland, TX. Energy Transfer holds a 38.2% ownership interest in ETCOP and operates the pipeline; Enbridge holds a 27.6% stake.During the November 7 call, Enbridge also detailed plans for the first phase of its planned Mainline Optimization Project, referred to as MLO 1. One week later, on November 14, Enbridge announced that it had taken FID on the C$1.4 billion (US$1 billion) MLO 1, which will add 150 Mb/d of capacity to the 3.2-MMb/d Mainline system and 100 Mb/d to Enbridge’s 660-Mb/d Flanagan South Pipeline (dark-purple line) between the Flanagan hub and Cushing. The Mainline capacity gains will be achieved through a combination of “upstream optimization and terminal enhancements,” while the Flanagan South expansion will come from new pumps and terminal improvements. The new capacity is expected to come online in 2027. President and CEO Greg Ebel said that the company also has made “significant progress” on MLO 2 — the second phase of its Mainline Optimization Project — which would add another 250 Mb/d of capacity in 2028. He said that MLO 2 “will utilize capacity on the Dakota Access Pipeline, and we’re happy to announce that we're teaming up with Energy Transfer to make that happen.” DAPL (red line) is a 750-Mb/d crude oil pipeline from the Bakken Shale in western North Dakota to the Patoka hub in Illinois. Like ETCOP (with which it connects at Patoka), DAPL is 38.2%-owned by Energy Transfer (and operated by the company), with Enbridge holding a 27.6% stake and Phillips 66 and Marathon Petroleum owning 25% and 9.2%, respectively. DAPL currently transports 500-550 Mb/d, leaving up to one-third of its capacity available. Enbridge and Energy Transfer said they expect to take FID on the project by mid-2026.

Trump proposes to open up new drilling off California coast and in eastern Gulf - The Trump administration proposed Thursday to open up new oil and gas drilling off the coast of California, a move that had already been denounced by Gov. Gavin Newsom (D). The administration also proposed opening to drilling an area that had been considered part of the eastern Gulf of Mexico, a plan that could rankle Florida Republicans. It proposes to hold six auctions for drilling rights off California’s coast over the next several years. It also proposes to auction off the right to drill in an area that includes part of the Gulf that had been considered part of the Eastern Gulf of Mexico. However, the Trump administration is now calling the region the “South-Central Gulf of America.” Maps of both areas indicate that there is overlap between what had been considered Eastern and is now being called “South-Central.” In both California and Florida, offshore drilling is controversial — many Florida Republicans, as well as Florida Democrats, oppose drilling because of the importance of beach tourism to the state’s economy and the potential for spills. President Trump’s proposal greatly expands offshore drilling plans in general, proposing to hold as many as 34 offshore oil and gas lease sales between the years 2026 and 2031. It would replace a Biden administration-era plan that proposed just three offshore lease sales, all in the Gulf of Mexico, between the years 2024 and 2029. The new plan would hold 21 lease sales off the coast of Alaska in addition to the six in California and seven in the Gulf. Of the Gulf sales, five would take place in the less-controversial western and central gulf while the other two would take place in an area that includes parts of the eastern Gulf. California hasn’t seen a new lease sale off its coasts since 1984, though some drilling occurs there under previously issued leases. Drilling off the California coast has been controversial since a major 1969 oil spill soaked beaches in oil.

Democrats revive package of bills to clamp down on fracking - A group of Democrats are reviving a package of bills that would tighten federal regulations for oil and gas drilling, in a rebuttal to expected votes in the House to shore up the energy industry this week. The five-bill package, dubbed the “Frack Pack,” aims to hold oil and gas companies accountable to national standards for air and water quality. It would also eliminate the so-called Halliburton Loophole, which has exempted fracking fluids from regulation under the Safe Drinking Water Act since 2005. “What all of us are hoping is that this will make the oil and gas industry comply with the same environmental regulations as anybody else,” said Rep. Diana DeGette, a Colorado Democrat and the sponsor of the “Fracturing Responsibility and Awareness of Chemicals (FRAC) Act.” “If we’re going to be drilling, and if we’re going to be leaning in on drilling, we need to make sure we’re not contaminating our aquifers with harmful chemicals,” DeGette said.

Greens say Congress has put oil and gas leases in jeopardy - Environmental groups told the Bureau of Land Management in a letter this week that Congress’ new interpretation of land-use plans has “raised serious questions” about more than 5,000 oil and gas leases.The Wilderness Society and five other groups said the leases may violate federal management law, and they’ve asked BLM to halt all oil and gas leasing on federal lands while the matter is sorted out.“BLM should pause all further leasing and permitting until it takes affirmative steps to ensure compliance with the law and remedy this grave legal uncertainty,” green leaders said in the letter to the BLM acting Director Bill Groffy.The letter was signed by Alison Flint, senior legal director at The Wilderness Society, as well as officials with the Conservation Lands Foundation, the Western Environmental Law Center, Advocates for the West, Wild Montana and Southern Utah Wilderness Alliance.

Sable Offshore Raises $250 Million Amid Financial Setbacks and Santa Ynez Pipeline Restart Roadblocks – Sable Offshore Corp., the Houston-based oil and gas company, announced on November 10, 2025, that it raised $250 million via a private stock sale to improve its financial health and stabilize its financial condition. Sable will issue 45.4 million shares of its common stock in a private placement at a purchase price of $5.50 per share, according to the statement. The company said it plans to use the proceeds for “general corporate purposes.” The fundraising follows a Hunterbrook report citing SEC filings that suggested Sable was running out of money and “had only weeks of cash remaining” as of mid-September 2025.. Sable required $2.3 billion to achieve commercial production of oil and gas from its three platforms near the Santa Barbara coast, according to Hunterbrook. The company acquired the platforms, a pipeline, and an onshore processing facility in Santa Ynez from ExxonMobil, under a 2022 agreement, Reuters reported in January 2024. All of the assets have remained idle since May 2015, when a ruptured pipeline caused an oil spill. More than 100,000 gallons of crude oil were dumped onto the coast, creating a 10-square-mile oil slick that threatened, injured, and killed wildlife near the Refugio State Beach, and contaminated the shoreline. The total of $2.3 billion includes at least $900 million to buy out Exxon, to which Sable owes 15% interest on debt that is due by March 31, 2027, according to the Hunterbrook report. By then, the loan will be roughly $1.1 billion, accruing $200 million in additional debt. Amid this financial crisis, Pilgrim Global, Sable’s long-term investor, amended its filings on November 6, 2025, claiming that there were errors in its previous filings. As a result, Pilgrim Global can trade $SOC without disclosure, Hunterbrook added. Sable is looking to restart oil production at the Santa Ynez Unit. In May 2025, the company announced that it had restarted production and flowing oil production to Las Flores Canyon. However, the company suffered a setback on November 4, 2025, when the Santa Barbara County Board of Supervisors voted against Exxon transferring the oil pipeline permits to Sable. In a statement, the Center for Biological Diversity and the Wishtoyo Foundation pointed out that Sable has a record of noncompliance and has not posted the performance bonds required to guarantee future decommissioning. The pipeline’s restart process has been controversial for Sable. The company was fined $18 million by the Coastal Commission, charged with criminal wrongdoing by the Santa Barbara district attorney, and sued by the California attorney general for actions related to construction on the pipeline, the statement added. Sable experienced another hurdle in October 2025, when the CAL Fire Office of the State Fire Marshal announced that Sable could not restart the pipeline until all safety requirements were fulfilled. The Fire Marshal mandated Sable to show that their infrastructure was safe, especially since the pipeline had caused one of the worst oil spills. Sable is expected to undergo a “multi-stage review process” to comply with all the requirements, and work with other agencies to meet their regulations before the pipelines can be restarted, the Fire Marshal noted. Sable’s attempts to restart the Santa Ynez Unit come at a time when the Trump administration is looking to expand domestic drilling operations and open offshore drilling in California, according to a news report by The Washington Post. The administration is considering six offshore lease sales between 2027 and 2030 along the California coast, according to the report. The administration also proposed expanding drilling in the eastern Gulf of Mexico, including over 20 lease sales in Alaska through 2031.

420 gallons of crude oil spills into Ventura County creek - CBS Los Angeles -- Roughly 420 gallons of crude oil spilled into Sisar Creek between Ojai and Santa Paula in Ventura County. The California Department of Fish and Wildlife said Carbon California personnel got a notification about the spill at around 2 p.m. on Tuesday. They believe about 420 gallons spilled into roughly a 0.75-mile stretch of Sisar Creek. State officials said the figures may change once crews complete their full assessment in the rugged terrain. Crews began cleaning up the spill and recovering the oil. Officials have set up a safety zone around the spill site and established air monitoring. They advised visitors to avoid the spill. Fish and Wildlife has not found any animals covered in oil, but the department has placed the Oiled Wildlife Care Network on standby in case crews find any. They urged people to refrain from trying to capture oiled animals. Instead, they asked anyone who encounters distressed wildlife to call 1(877) 823-6926. Fish and Wildlife has established a unified command with the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, the Office of Spill Prevention and Response, the Ventura County Sheriff's Office and Carbon California. They said crews do not need volunteers at this time.

Jet fuel spill shuts down Northwest's main oil pipeline --Spill-response crews planned to start digging up a blueberry farm near Everett on Tuesday to find the cause of a jet-fuel spill that shut down the Pacific Northwest’s primary oil pipeline. The farm sits on the route of the Olympic Pipeline, a mostly underground, 400-mile system of pipes owned by BP. It carries gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel from four refineries on the shores of Puget Sound to Seattle, Seattle-Tacoma International Airport, Renton, Tacoma, Vancouver, and Portland. A sheen of jet fuel was reported in a drainage ditch on the farm on Nov. 11, according to BP spokesperson Cesar Rodriguez. Where the jet fuel spilled, the Olympic Pipeline is actually two parallel pipes, one 16 inches wide and the other 20 inches wide. The larger underground pipe somehow sprang a leak, with the cause currently under investigation. Responders have deployed oil-spill containment boom and a vacuum truck to capture spilled fuel. They have also installed a barrier to stop fuel from flowing from the drainage ditch into the Snohomish River. The paired steel pipes were shut down until Nov. 16, when the smaller pipe resumed carrying fuels to customers in Washington and Oregon, including jet fuel to Sea-Tac Airport. The larger pipe remains shut down.

BP Shuts Entire Olympic Fuel Pipeline System After Leak Near Everett - BP has shut down the full 400-mile Olympic Pipeline system after a product leak triggered repeated shutdowns and inspections near Everett, Washington. Crews have begun excavating the affected segment, with no timeline yet announced for repairs or restart. (Reuters) — BP on Nov. 19 said it shut down the 400-mile Olympic Pipeline following a leak, halting fuel delivery from the system. The company restored one of the two pipelines east of Everett, Washington, on Nov. 17 that was shut to determine the source of some product discharge. But the restored line was shut down again, the London-based oil and gas company said. "On the afternoon of Monday, November 17, the 16-inch line was shut down to investigate an increase in product observed in a collection point on the response site," the company said in a statement. Crews have begun excavation of the pipelines to allow for inspection, the company said, without providing a timeline for the repairs. The Olympic Pipeline system moves fuel from northern Washington to Oregon. The pipeline transports key refined petroleum products - including gasoline and diesel - and supplies jet fuel to Seattle-Tacoma International Airport.

Harvest Midstream Aiming for First Alaska LNG Imports by 2028 at Long-Idled Kenai Terminal -- Harvest Midstream Co. is in advanced talks with global LNG suppliers to import the super-chilled fuel in Alaska and is now seeking customers interested in those supplies after it closed its acquisition of the Kenai LNG terminal from Marathon Petroleum Corp. (MPC). At A Glance:

• Harvest seeking LNG suppliers
• FID targeted for 2026
• Project to serve local demand

U.S. Plans for Alaska Part of Larger Focus on Expanding Arctic Development -Expanded energy development in Alaska has been a priority since President Trump returned to office. The latest move by his administration was its October 23 announcement that it would allow oil and gas drilling in Alaska’s Arctic National Wildlife Refuge (ANWR) and make other changes to advance production in that resource-rich area. In today’s RBN blog, we look at what the moves could mean for Alaska and how they fit into the Trump administration’s plans to accelerate Arctic exploration and development. President Trump’s flurry of executive orders upon returning to office (see Brand New Day) included one titled “Unleashing Alaska’s Extraordinary Resource Potential,” whose aim is to revitalize energy production in the state, streamline the permitting process and prioritize the development of the long-dormant Alaska LNG project (see Road to Alaska), a multibillion-dollar plan to transport natural gas several hundred miles from Alaska’s North Slope to Anchorage and Cook Inlet for eventual liquefaction and export. The president’s endorsement renewed interest in the project, which has been on the drawing board for more than 30 years, although many still see it as a bit of a long shot given the high costs and significant logistical hurdles it would have to clear. Gas for the Alaska LNG project would flow from a gas treatment facility (purple diamond in Figure 1 below) on the proposed Alaska Gasline (dashed aqua line), an 800-mile, 42-inch-diameter overland pipeline from Prudhoe Bay to Cook Inlet, where a subsea section would deliver up to 3.3 Bcf/d of gas to the project site at Nikiski (striped purple-and-white diamond), located north of the original Kenai LNG export project (gray diamond) that ceased operation in 2016 due to the depletion of reserves in Cook Inlet. The pipeline would also supply gas to electricity and gas utilities along its path and to Cook Inlet, where demand is expected to reach 200 MMcf/d by 2030.

Investor Confidentiality Clash Complicates Mexico Pacific’s Saguaro LNG Export Timeline -- Mexico Pacific Ltd. LLC could have to disclose its minority owners before receiving an extension of its export authorization, according to the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE). Detailed map showing the planned Saguaro LNG export project on Mexico’s Pacific Coast and surrounding natural gas infrastructure, including major pipelines, import/export points, proposed LNG facilities, and connections to the Waha Hub and U.S.–Mexico border crossings. The map highlights key systems such as the SNG network, Tarahumara Pipeline, Samalayuca–Sásabe corridor, and multiple proposed expansions supporting gas flows from West Texas into Sonora and Baja California. At A Glance:
DOE requests more info
Saguaro LNG NFTA extension pending
15 Mt/y capacity project remains unsanctioned

Ksi Lisims LNG ‘Not Far Off’ From FID as Canadian Government’s Support Eases Path Forward --Backers of Ksi Lisims LNG in British Columbia (BC) expect to reach a final investment decision (FID) next year and see an easier path toward the project becoming reality after the federal government selected it for fast-tracking under a broader plan to strengthen the country’s economy.Line chart titled “NGI’s NOVA/AECO C Forward Fixed Price Curve” showing forward natural gas prices from early 2026 through late 2027, with values fluctuating between roughly $2.00 and $3.00/MMBtu. The curve dips through mid-2026, spikes sharply to around $3.00/MMBtu in early 2027, then falls below $2.00/MMBtu by mid-2027 before gradually rising again into late 2027. At A Glance:
FID expected in 2026
Project targeting 2029 for first LNG
Mature offtake, financing talks ongoing

Yes We Can – Western Canada’s NGLs Growth Gets a Boost with NorthRiver Midstream’s BC Pipeline | RBN Energy -The production of natural gas liquids in Western Canada has been on a nearly unbroken upward trend since 2010, with expectations that this will continue until at least the end of the decade. Into this growth, NorthRiver Midstream recently sanctioned a new NGL pipeline, dubbed the NEBC Connector, that will ship growing liquids production from northeastern British Columbia to fractionators in Alberta. In today’s RBN blog, we take a closer look at this new project. NGL production growth in Western Canada has been phenomenal in recent years. Primarily a byproduct of rising natural gas output in the region, production of the NGLs suite comprised of ethane, propane, butane and field condensate/natural gasoline — the last of these referred to as condensate and pentanes-plus in Canada, or more simply, condensate — doubled between 2010 and 2024 to 1.2 MMb/d (left chart in Figure 1 below). Additional growth of 75 to 80 Mb/d is expected this year.As we said, a good portion of that growth has been tied to rising natural gas production, which was up 29% between 2010 and 2024 (right chart). To deal with that rising production, existing fractionators have been taking a “deeper cut” of the liquids from the gas stream (i.e., removing a greater share of the NGLs). Also, midstream companies have been adding new fractionation capacity in British Columbia (BC) and Alberta. (We should note that Western Canada’s NGLs output is not just tied to big fractionation plants but also to hundreds of gas processing plants at which small fractionation units are installed.)The fractionated NGLs being produced, highly valued and looking for a home, have been channelled into several important outlets. Propane is being exported off Canada’s West Coast in increasing quantities, with those export facilities set to expand in the next few years — and to include butane beginning in 2027. In addition, there have been increases in rail exports of propane and butane to the U.S. Most coveted has been the rising output of condensate, which is in demand as a diluent in Alberta’s oil sands to allow bitumen to be shipped to market in pipelines. As for ethane, its production has been rising slightly for several years due to small increases in Alberta’s ethane cracker demand, the only large outlet for ethane in Western Canada. Ethane output could be set to increase significantly by the end of the decade if an expansion of a large ethane cracker is eventually completed (see Shock to the System and Wish You Were Here for additional details). Of course, it's not only about rising NGL production, but also where it’s occurring. We have blogged several times about the prolific unconventional natural gas and NGLs-prone Montney formation and it has been the BC side that has been responsible for most of the natural gas production growth in recent years. As you might expect, with that production has come growth in those highly valued NGLs from BC, up nearly fivefold since 2010 to recent levels near 250 Mb/d (see Figure 2 below). Going forward, will there still be more NGLs from the BC side of the Montney? That is a question that we delved into at RBN’s recent School of Energy. We expect that a good deal of Western Canada’s future NGLs output will originate from BC (see Figure 3 below); the only real exception in the overall mix is that we expect most of the condensate growth will come from the Alberta side of the border, driven by its portion of the Montney and its condensate-rich Duvernay shale. From the combined output of 1.2 MMb/d in 2024, we expect total NGLs production from BC (blue layer) and Alberta (orange layer) to reach just under 1.6 MMb/d by 2030, with BC’s liquids share rising over that time from 35% to 45%.With that kind of outlook for BC NGLs and condensate, it would seem natural for midstream operators to look into expansions of the pipeline networks that ship condensate and the unfractionated NGLs mix (commonly known as y-grade) from BC to large fractionation plants and markets in Alberta. There is only one existing pipeline player in the region — Pembina Pipeline Corp. — but another midstream operator is looking to make a bigger splash with a new pipeline of its own.South Bow has achieved mechanical completion of its Blackrod Connection Project and placed the project’s 25-km (15.5-mile), 16-inch natural gas lateral into commercial service, the company said during its quarterly earnings call November 14. Calgary, AB-based NorthRiver Midstream Inc. owns natural gas processing plants and gas gathering pipelines in northeastern BC and northwestern Alberta. The company was formed by the purchase of Enbridge’s midstream assets (gas plants and gathering pipelines) by Brookfield Infrastructure, part of Toronto-based Brookfield Corp., a global investment firm with infrastructure holdings across a wide range of industries. Announced in July 2018 and with a purchase price of C$4.3 billion (US$3.1 billion), the transaction passed regulatory muster in October 2019 and closed at the end of that year. In total, 19 gas processing plants and 3,550 km (~2,200 miles) of gathering pipelines were placed under NorthRiver’s umbrella.With such a starting base, it seemed natural for NorthRiver to explore building its own pipeline system to deal with the rising quantities of liquids originating from the BC side of the Montney and from its own processing plants. NorthRiver recently proposed a new 215-km (~134-mile) NGLs pipeline (dashed purple-and-black line in Figure 4 below), dubbed the Northeast BC (NEBC) Connector, that would run from its Highway gas processing plant and liquids hub (black triangle) near Wonowon, BC, to a third-party pipeline connection near Gordondale, AB. The pipeline would consist of two parallel lines, one dedicated to condensate and the other to other NGLs; each would have an initial capacity of about 60 Mb/d but could be expanded to 200 Mb/d of aggregate capacity.

Canadian Natural Resources Contemplates Massive Oil Sands Output Expansion | RBN Energy --Canadian Natural Resources Limited (CNRL), subsequent to its Q3 2025 earnings report on November 6, announced a series of oil sands production initiatives as part of its Investor Open House on November 7. If all projects are pursued as currently planned, the company has the potential to increase its output of non-upgraded bitumen in the range of 340 Mb/d by 2032. Front End Engineering and Design (FEED) will begin in 2026 for the expansion of four oil sands projects.

1. Jackfish: an expansion of the existing Jackfish Steam Assisted Gravity Drainage (SAGD) production site that would undertake three increments of 10 Mb/d each to push capacity from 120 Mb/d to 150 Mb/d with an in-service date of 2030.
2. Pike 2: a new SAGD facility contemplated south of the existing Pike 1 site with incremental production of 70 Mb/d and planned for in-service by 2031.
3. Jackpine Mine Expansion: an incremental 150 Mb/d from an expansion of the existing Jackpine Mine which will require an additional processing plant and targeting start up by 2031. Output would be sold to the market as diluted bitumen and not upgraded as is the case for current production sent to the Scotford Upgrader.
4. Horizon North Mine Expansion: an additional 90 Mb/d from the existing Horizon North Mine that will require new regulatory approvals with a potential start date of 2032.

The company gave no specific timeline for the completion of the projects, stating that the Jackfish and Pike 2 projects are “medium term” priorities, while Jackpine and Horizon are “long term” opportunities. This latest set of announcements tie in with RBN’s assessment that output of oil sands bitumen from all operators could expand by as much as 500 Mb/d by 2030.

Ovintiv Ramps Up Montney Exposure with Acquisition of NuVista Energy -- Consolidation in Western Canada’s oil and gas sector received another boost recently with the takeover of Montney-focused producer NuVista Energy by Ovintiv, already one of the region’s largest producers of natural gas and condensate. The C$3.8 billion (US$2.7 billion) deal builds on Ovintiv’s similarly sized acquisition of Paramount Resources in 2024 and gives the company an even stronger position in one of Canada’s most important plays. In today’s RBN blog, we take a closer look at the transaction and where it positions Ovintiv in the Montney.The old saying, “When it rains, it pours,” certainly applies to the merger and acquisition (M&A) frenzy that has been gripping Western Canada’s energy sector. Like many oil and gas companies worldwide, Canadian firms have been subjected to volatile and declining crude oil prices for most of this year, but they have also had to endure another summer of painfully low Western Canadian natural gas cash prices (for those that were not sufficiently hedged). These trends have depressed stock valuations for some producers and spurred buying interest by larger — and better capitalized — rivals.Aside from relatively cheap stock valuations, the reasons for M&A can be as varied as the people and companies involved but typically incorporate numerous factors such as: the purchase of specific assets or whole companies outright to increase efficiency and lower per unit production costs; the magnitude of oil and gas production on offer; land position; existing surface facilities for production and processing; and future drilling opportunities that might arise from acquired oil and gas reserves. Other intangibles such as tax pools, regulatory exposure, the exchange rate and employee talents can also be part of the mix.With Canada’s economy being buffeted by seemingly random and inconsistent changes to tariffs by its largest trading partner, the U.S., and competitive export opportunities for crude oil and natural gas expanding in the past year or so thanks to the start of the Trans Mountain Pipeline expansion (aka TMX) and LNG Canada, becoming a bigger producer and landholder to remain cost effective and relevant has become even more imperative. This backdrop, especially since January, has seen several major acquisitions come to light in Canada’s oil and gas business. The largest this year was the C$15 billion (US$10.7 billion) blockbuster deal in March involving the acquisition of Veren Inc. by Whitecap Resources. Whitecap made no secret that the motivation was not only to buy into quality complementary assets but also to grow its land position and production in key unconventional formations, such as the Montney and Duvernay, and to stay competitive against larger rivals. The next major takeover came in the midstream sector with Keyera Corp. buying the Canadian NGLs business of Plains Midstream Canada for C$5.2 billion (US$3.8 billion). This deal not only gave Keyera a huge national footprint, but “Canadian-ized” assets that had been held for many years through the U.S. parent company of Plains Midstream, Plains All American.

Oil spill from vessel in Maple Bay cleaned up | Saanich News - An oil and gas spill from a ship in Maple Bay has been cleaned up. A spokesperson for the Canadian Coast Guard said a Coast Guard duty officer talked to the owner of the vessel where the spill originated, and action to clear the spill began immediately. “The spill has been cleaned up and the duty officer is monitoring the situation to ensure it doesn’t happen again,” the spokesperson said. “We need to ensure this is not an ongoing issue.” Maple Bay resident Sharon Horsburgh said the spill was from a boat in a flotilla that came from Ladysmith and anchored in Maple Bay on Oct 24. She said the spill began on Nov. 13.

Peru’s Pipeline Troubles Complicate Effort to Restart Amazon Oil Output - Peru is seeking to restart long-stalled Amazon oil production to supply its expanded Talara refinery, but persistent spills, Indigenous resistance, and uncertainty surrounding the North Peruvian Pipeline (ONP) threaten the country’s midstream future. (Reuters) — Near a remote bend of the Patoyacu River in Peru's northern Amazon, Wilmer Macusi stood atop a rusty pipeline cutting through the jungle, swirling a branch in the pool of stagnant water surrounding it. “They say this is clean,” said Macusi, a 25-year-old Indigenous Urarina leader, pointing to the spot where an oil spill occurred in early 2023. “But if you move the water, oil still comes out.” Black droplets bubbled to the surface as plastic barriers meant to contain the spill drooped into the water. The pipeline links a nearby oilfield, Block 8, to the larger government-owned North Peruvian Pipeline (ONP). Macusi's community of Santa Rosa lies a short walk away. Peru’s northern Amazon holds hundreds of millions of barrels of crude, according to government data. But Indigenous groups say oil extraction over the past half-century brought pollution, not progress, and are opposed to a fresh wave of development. The region once pumped more than half of Peru's oil, peaking at about 200,000 barrels a day in the 1980s before environmental liabilities and community opposition drove production below 40,000 bpd. Key blocks went dormant in 2020. Now, the region's modest reserves are again central to state oil firm Petroperu's plans. The company has spent $6.5 billion upgrading its Talara refinery into a 95,000-bpd complex aimed at producing high-grade fuels for export. Heavily indebted with a CCC+ junk credit rating from ratings agency Fitch, Petroperu wants to revive Amazon oil output to supply Talara. The state firm estimated last month that proven and probable reserves in the region were worth $20.9 billion, which Petroperu said could deliver $3.1 billion in tax revenues for local governments and communities. While the amount of oil at stake is relatively small, the plans have fueled tensions over past spills, stoking Indigenous opposition at a time Brazil, Ecuador and Guyana are trying to expand their Amazon oil frontiers. Frustration about climate action and forest protection boiled over at the COP30 climate summit this week, when dozens of Indigenous protesters forced their way into the venue and clashed with security guards. Petroperu is also planning to import oil to the refinery by linking the 1,100-km (683 miles) ONP to neighboring Ecuador, which aims to boost production in its own Amazon region as part of a $47 billion oil expansion plan. Hailed as an engineering marvel when it was built in the 1970s, the ONP has since become a lightning rod for leaks, protests and sabotage. Indigenous groups in both countries are resisting the pipeline link-up. The government is weighing options for how best to run the pipeline, including through a joint venture or outsourcing its management. Petroperu failed to attract an international partner to run its largest oilfield, Block 192, which produced more than 100,000 bpd at its peak but has recently been the focus of Indigenous protests demanding remediation for damage to the forest, soil and waterways. Petroperu's former chairman Alejandro Narvaez, who was fired last month, estimated Block 192 could produce at least 20,000 bpd with investment and overall Amazon production could hit 100,000 bpd. The state oil firm selected domestic firm Upland Oil & Gas to operate the block, but Peru's state oil regulator disqualified Upland last month on the grounds it did not demonstrate financial capacity. Upland disputes the decision and has asked for a review. Petroperu also partnered with Upland to revive production at the smaller Block 8, which produced 5,000 bpd last month. Upland's CEO Jorge Rivera, son of one of Peru's early oil prospectors, told Reuters that Upland has offered Indigenous communities training, jobs and funding. "We've dedicated ourselves to understanding the complexities behind operating these fields,” he said. Rivera visited Santa Rosa in March, gifting a Starlink terminal and requesting a report on the community's needs. The community's main demand was the cleanup of the nearby spill, but questions remain over who bears responsibility. Though the operator is responsible for the 108-km stretch of pipeline that runs through Block 8 connecting it to the ONP, Upland's contract exempts it from liability for past pollution. The previous operator, an Argentine subsidiary named Pluspetrol Norte, was fined a record number of times by Peru's environmental regulator OEFA before it filed for liquidation and left the area in late 2020. Eight Indigenous federations and non-governmental organizations filed a complaint to the OECD's Dutch National Contact Point, a mechanism to implement OECD guidelines for businesses, which concluded in September that Pluspetrol had violated Indigenous communities' rights in Peru's Amazon and urged the company to address the environmental damage. In a response to Reuters, Pluspetrol said it already had complied with environmental and human rights regulations and that the NCP statement was "without merit" for not reflecting the "breadth and complexity of the evidence presented and the extent of actions taken by the company." Decades of scientific research have found high levels of lead, mercury, cadmium and arsenic in wildlife and Indigenous people living near Peru's oilfields. Estimated cleanup costs for Block 192 alone stand at $1.5 billion. OEFA registered over 560 environmental infractions including oil spills and others from the ONP or other oil infrastructure in Blocks 192 and 8 from 2011 through September 2025. Petroperu has said any damage is "temporary and reversible" and blamed unspecified "economic and rural-domestic activities" by local communities as the main driver of water pollution. In late 2023, Peru's prosecutor's office said it had broken up a network of businessmen, local Indigenous leaders and a Petroperu employee that it said was orchestrating oil spills to secure lucrative cleanup contracts. In an interview with Reuters before his dismissal, Narvaez said Petroperu had prioritized cleaning up spills under the regulator's supervision. The government of Peru's interim President Jose Jeri, who took power last month, replaced Narvaez with Petroperu board vice president Fidel Moreno and said it will soon replace Petroperu's entire board of directors. Moreno did not reply to an interview request. Macusi said communities had yet to access a fund from Upland promising 2.5% of oil sales. Meanwhile, meetings with the oil regulator, Perupetro, to discuss funding for community projects have been delayed. After an oil spill from the Block 8 connector pipeline in 2022, Urarina communities held a strike, taking over oil facilities, fields and blockading a river to demand a better state response. Macusi, who as a teen worked hauling buckets of spilled oil, says communities are ready to take action again. "If the promised benefits don't come soon, we'll take measures," he said.

ADNOC Gas Achieves Record Q3 -- ADNOC Gas PLC has reported an eight percent year-on-year increase in net profit to $1.34 billion for the third quarter, the company's highest for the July-September period. The increase was driven by a four percent rise in domestic gas sales volumes, according to an online statement by the company. Demand is supported by growth in the United Arab Emirates' economy, while contract negotiations also improved underlying margins, said the gas processing and sales arm of Abu Dhabi National Oil Co. Earnings per share landed at $0.017. ADNOC Gas has extended its five percent annual dividend growth policy to 2030, aiming for $24.4 billion in total for 2025-30, according to a stock filing October 8. ADNOC Gas has introduced a policy to distribute dividends quarterly starting with Q3 2025. "The introduction of quarterly dividend distributions starting in Q3 2025 with $896 million to be paid by December 12 - alongside a five percent annual increase in dividend payout now extended until 2030 - offers greater transparency and even more regular income, allowing shareholders to plan and manage their finances with confidence", it said in its quarterly statement. ADNOC Gas said, "Year-to-date net income reached $3.99 billion, exceeding market expectations, even as oil prices averaged $71/barrel in the first nine months of 2025 compared to $83/barrel in 2024". "Q3 2025 saw ADNOC Gas' domestic gas business deliver record results, with EBITDA rising to $914 million, up 26 percent year-on-year". On lower prices, revenue fell from $4.87 billion for Q3 2024 to $4.86 billion for Q3 2025. Operating profit landed at $1.74 billion, up from $1.69 billion for Q3 2024. Profit before tax was $1.72 billion, up from $1.68 billion for Q3 2024. Net cash from operating activities before changes in working capital was $4.65 billion, up from $4.24 billion for Q3 2024. ADNOC Gas ended Q3 2025 with $3.43 billion in cash and cash equivalents, while current assets totaled $6.48 billion. Current liabilities stood at $3.65 billion.

Natural gas demand down 15% in October on high international prices - The Economic Times -High international prices and shrinking domestic output are dragging down India's natural gas consumption, which fell 14.6% in October as industries shift to cheaper liquid fuels amid softer oil prices. Consumption in the April-October period is 8.1% lower year-on-year. A mild summer reduced demand from power generators, while tightening supplies of relatively cheaper domestically produced gas have also weighed on consumption. Domestic output fell 5.1% in October and 3.4% in April-October, driven by lower production from RIL-BP's KG basin fields. Industrial users are increasingly substituting natural gas with liquid fuels such as propane and fuel oil, which have become relatively cheaper following the sharp decline in crude prices. Gujarat Gas is moving into propane distribution to retain customers in the key industrial cluster of Morbi, where propane has heavily displaced natural gas. Propane is ?4-6 per standard cubic metre cheaper than gas, according to ICICI Securities. Falling domestic gas demand has pushed LNG imports down 22.6% in October and 12.5% in the April-October period. Imports account for about half of India's gas consumption. "Natural gas prices are similar to where they were last year, but customers find the fuel expensive as crude has come down," said an industry executive. Asian LNG benchmark JKM averaged $11.7/mmbtu in April-October compared with $12.6/mmbtu a year earlier. Brent crude averaged $68 in the same period versus $81 last year. High prices have long been a hurdle for Indian gas consumers, limiting progress on the government's goal of raising gas's share in the energy mix. In recent years, domestic gas has become expensive. Gas from nominated fields operated by ONGC and Oil India is currently sold at $6.75/mmbtu, based on a government-set formula introduced in 2023, up from $1.79/mmbtu five years ago. Gas from difficult fields is capped at $9.72/mmbtu, compared with $4.06/mmbtu five years earlier. India is seeking more investments in its exploration sector to help raise gas production and has framed new policies to attract foreign majors.

Venezuela Approves 15-Year Extension of Russia-Linked Oil Joint Ventures - (Reuters) – Venezuela’s National Assembly on Thursday approved a 15-year extension of the joint ventures between state company PDVSA and a unit of Russia’s Roszarubezhneft that operate two oilfields in the South American country’s western region, according to a session broadcast on TV. The partnerships may continue operating the Boqueron and Perija oilfields through 2041 with the goal of producing some 91 million barrels or 16,600 barrels per day of crude, said lawmakers before approving the extension. The total investment is estimated at about $616 million. The agreement was signed between PDVSA and Roszarubezhneft’s Moscow-based unit Petromost, two lawmakers told Reuters. Roszarubezhneft, owned by a unit of the Russian Ministry of Economic Development, was incorporated in 2020 and soon afterwards acquired the Venezuelan holdings of Russian state-run oil company Rosneft as Washington imposed sanctions on two of Rosneft’s units for trading Venezuelan oil. Venezuela’s PDVSA also remains under U.S. sanctions, which in recent years have limited foreign investment and partners willing to do business in the South American country.

Goldman Sachs sees oil prices falling through 2026 on supply surge (Reuters) - Oil prices are expected to decline through 2026, Goldman Sachs said on Monday, citing a production surge that will keep the market in a large surplus of around 2 million barrels per day. The bank forecast Brent crude will average $56 a barrel and WTI $52 in 2026, below current forward curves of $63 and $60. "The 2025-2026 supply wave mostly results from long-cycle projects that saw Final Investment Decisions (FIDs) just before the pandemic, got delayed during Covid, and are now all coming online and from OPEC's strategic decision to unwind production cuts," the bank noted. OPEC+, or the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries plus Russia and other allies, has been boosting output since April. Other producers, such as the U.S. and Brazil, are also increasing supply, adding to glut fears and weighing on prices. The International Energy Agency said the global oil market faces an even bigger surplus next year of as much as 4.09 mbpd. Goldman Sachs expects prices to rebound from 2027 as low 2025–2026 prices weigh on non-OPEC production and very few new projects come online after 15 years of underinvestment. "We therefore expect Brent/WTI to rise to our long-run $80/76 forecasts by late 2028," the bank said. In 2026/2027, Brent crude could fall into the $40s if non-OPEC supply proves more resilient than expected or if the global economy enters a recession, but could rise above $70 a barrel if Russian supply declines more sharply, Goldman Sachs said. Brent crude futures were trading around $64.31 a barrel as of 1809 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was trading at $60.02.

Oil Prices Decline in Asian Trading -Oil prices fell in early Asian trading on Monday, giving up last week’s gains, as loading operations resumed at Russia’s main export hub in Novorossiysk after a two-day halt at the Black Sea port, which had been subjected to a Ukrainian attack. Brent crude futures fell by 58 cents, or 0.9 percent, to reach $63.81 a barrel at 00:50 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were traded at $59.50 a barrel, down 59 cents, or 1.0 percent from Friday’s close. Both benchmark crudes rose by more than two percent on Friday, ending the week with modest gains, after exports were suspended at the Novorossiysk port and the nearby Caspian Pipeline Consortium terminal, affecting the equivalent of two percent of global supplies. Earlier this month, the OPEC+ alliance agreed to raise production targets for December by 137,000 barrels per day, the same level as in October and November. It also agreed to pause the increase in the first quarter of next year. Data from oilfield services company Baker Hughes on Friday showed that the number of U.S. oil drilling rigs rose by three to reach 417 in the week ending November 14.

Crude Up as Sanctions Offset Reopen of Russian Oil Hub -- Crude futures edged higher Monday, Nov. 17, morning as concerns over new Russian sanctions maintained the market's upward momentum despite news that loading operations had resumed at the Black Sea oil hub Novorossiysk after a two-day outage. On Friday, Nov. 14, oil prices rose more than 2% after a Ukrainian strike briefly suspended operations at the terminal, which exports more than 700,000 bpd of Russian crude oil. The resumption in loadings at Novorossiysk, however, did not fully alleviate concerns around Russian crude supply, as U.S. President Trump on Sunday reiterated his support for secondary sanctions on buyers of Russian energy, backing a proposed Senate bill that would impose sanctions "on any country doing business with Russia." The NYMEX WTI contract for December delivery was up $0.30 at $60.39 bbl, and ICE Brent for January delivery edged up $0.26 to $64.65 bbl. Among refined products, December RBOB gasoline futures softened by $0.0027 to $2.0089 gallon, and front-month ULSD futures retreated $0.0117 to $2.5194 gallon. The U.S. Dollar Index strengthened by 0.091 points to 99.290 against a basket of foreign currencies. Ukrainian attacks on Russia's energy infrastructure continued over the weekend, reportedly striking two refineries. Global refining margins have surged amid the wave of strikes on the Russian downstream sector, which led to severe fuel shortages and prompted the country to extend fuel export bans. European and Asian middle distillate cracks have rocketed to seven-year highs, and relative strength in ULSD amid soft crude oil prices led the 3:2:1 crack spread versus WTI to best the record highs reached in May 2022 amid Europe's shunning of Russian oil following the invasion of Ukraine. The U.S., meanwhile, is set for a macroeconomic data heavy week. Several important macroeconomic indicators, delayed by the U.S. government shutdown and whose absence has complicated deliberations on monetary policy by the Federal Reserve, are scheduled for release this week. The U.S. Department of Commerce's Bureau of Economic Analysis will publish data on U.S. imports and exports for August on Wednesday, Nov. 19. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics is set to release the Employment Situation report for September, originally scheduled for Oct. 3, on Thursday, Nov. 20, followed by the Real Earnings report for September on Friday.

Oil prices ease after loadings resume at Russian export hub (Reuters) - Oil prices eased on Monday as loadings resumed at Russia's Novorossiysk export hub after a two-day suspension at the Black Sea port that had been hit by a Ukrainian attack. Brent crude settled 19 cents, or 0.3%, lower at $64.20 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude eased 18 cents, or 0.3%, to $59.91. Sign up here. Both benchmarks rose more than 2% on Friday to end the week with a modest gain after exports were suspended at Novorossiysk and a neighbouring Caspian Pipeline Consortium terminal, affecting the equivalent of 2% of global supply. Novorossiysk resumed oil loadings on Sunday, according to two industry sources and LSEG data. However, Ukraine's attacks on Russian oil infrastructure remain in focus. "Early weakness was due to the resumption of loadings in Novorossiysk, but was short-lived," said Scott Shelton, energy specialist at TP ICAP Group. Ukraine's military said on Saturday that it hit Russia's Ryazan oil refinery, and Kyiv's General Staff said on Sunday that the Novokuibyshevsk oil refinery in Russia's Samara region had also been struck. "Investors are trying to gauge how Ukraine's attacks will affect Russia's crude exports in the long term," Investors are also monitoring the impact of Western sanctions on Russian supply and trade flows. The U.S. imposed sanctions banning deals with Russian oil companies Lukoil and Rosneft after November 21 to try to push Moscow towards peace talks over Ukraine. U.S. President Donald Trump said on Sunday that Republicans are working on legislation that will impose sanctions on any country doing business with Russia, adding that Iran could be added to that list. OPEC+ this month agreed to increase December output targets by 137,000 barrels per day, the same as for October and November. It also agreed to a pause in increases in the first quarter of next year. An ING report said the oil market was expected to remain in a large surplus through 2026. But it warned of rising supply risks from Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian energy facilities and flagged Iran's seizure of a tanker in the Gulf of Oman after it transited the Strait of Hormuz, an important route for about 20 million bpd of global oil flows. The choppiness in crude oil prices is likely to remain as the geopolitical risk stays elevated against the expectations of more global crude supplies, said Dennis Kissler, senior vice president of trading at BOK Financial. Latest positioning data shows that speculators increased net long positions in ICE Brent by 12,636 lots over the past reporting week to 164,867 lots as of last Tuesday. ING said this was driven predominantly by short-covering and suggested that participants were reluctant to be short amid supply risks related to sanctions uncertainty. Meanwhile, UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo expects oil prices to remain supported. "Rising oil-on-water levels have not yet led to an increase in on-land inventories," Staunovo said in a note. "While we expect prices to dip to the lower part of the trading range over the coming months, we hold a more constructive outlook for the second half of 2026." Oil prices are expected to decline through 2026, Goldman Sachs said on Monday, citing a production surge that will keep the market in a large surplus of around 2 million barrels per day.

Crude Oil: Resumed Russian Exports Strip Geopolitical Premium - A fragile balance in the oil market has emerged as supply normalizes just when geopolitical risk premiums had started to build. The resumption of tanker operations at Russia’s Novorossiysk port, a major export hub, restored physical flow capacity, softening prices in a market recently driven by risk sentiment rather than demand fundamentals. Transportation capacity is the principal transmission channel, and the immediate result is a moderation of the risk premium that had supported prices. Tanker activity is a pivotal indicator because it links geopolitical headlines to actual barrel availability. The market had begun to price in a potential tightening after operations were halted following a Ukrainian drone strike. That halt supported bullish positioning, as tail risks from U.S.-Venezuela tensions and disruptions in Sudan pointed toward constrained supply. When operations resumed, crude flows stabilized, allowing traders to reassess risk exposure. The headline effect faded, revealing that physical supply remains resilient despite persistent geopolitical pockets of uncertainty. These events unfolded against a broader macro backdrop where major central banks are still monitoring disinflation trends and keeping policy conditions restrictive but not aggressively tightening. Slower global manufacturing demand, especially from Europe and parts of Asia, has limited the upside for oil even when supply concerns arise. Market reaction confirmed this shift in tone. Front-month WTI crude futures traded 0.4 percent lower at 59.69 dollars per barrel, while front-month Brent crude futures slipped 0.4 percent to 63.97 dollars per barrel. Price movements suggest traders are unwinding short-term risk premiums rather than positioning for a long-term supply deficit. Brent’s price holding above 60 dollars signals that structural support remains from medium-term demand expectations, while WTI’s dip below 60 dollars hints at weaker U.S. inventory drawdowns. Equity markets typically treat oil softness as marginally disinflationary, offering some relief for sectors sensitive to input costs. The dollar remains sensitive to oil dynamics, as a lower energy complex can temper inflation expectations, reinforcing the view that central bank easing remains a credible theme for later in the year. Looking ahead, the base case assumes that oil stabilizes near current levels if tanker flows remain uninterrupted and geopolitical risk remains localized rather than systemic. In this scenario, prices may fluctuate within a tight range over the next several weeks, with traders focusing on U.S. inventory data, OPEC messaging, and demand signals from Asia. Over the next quarter, positioning could turn constructive if signs of stronger industrial demand emerge or if fiscal stimulus in key economies supports energy consumption. The alternative case centers on renewed supply disruptions, possibly through escalation in the Black Sea or broader sanctions enforcement, which could quickly reintroduce a risk premium. Under such conditions, traders may re-establish long positions, particularly if disruptions coincide with higher seasonal demand during the northern hemisphere’s cold months. .

Oil Prices Steady, ULSD Rises Amid Global Diesel Tightness - Crude oil futures edged up Tuesday morning, while ULSD futures soared to 5-month highs amid a global diesel rally. The NYMEX WTI contract for December delivery edged up $0.07 barrel (bbl) to $59.98 bbl, and ICE Brent for January delivery rose $0.04 to $64.24 bbl. December RBOB gasoline futures softened $0.0114 to $1.9787 gallon. Front-month ULSD futures, meanwhile, were up $0.0660 to $2.6130 gallon after soaring earlier to $2.6262 -- their highest since June. The U.S. Dollar Index softened by 0.123 points to 99.365 against a basket of foreign currencies. In Europe, diesel fuel has been in short supply by historical standards since the European Union imposed import embargos on Russian oil in reaction to Moscow's invasion of Ukraine. A barrage of Ukrainian strikes on Russia's downstream sector since August further put a strain on diesel supply, lifting European and Asian refining margins to 2-year highs last month. Globally, refinery runs were down 2.9 million barrels per day (bpd) in October, according to estimates from the International Energy Agency. That same month, the E.U. announced new sanctions that would ban imports of diesel made from Russian crude oil starting Jan. 1, sending diesel prices soaring. New U.S. and E.U. sanctions on Russian oil are one of the few factors still providing a counterbalance to an otherwise gloomy oil price outlook. The global crude oil market appears more than well supplied compared with the Russian situation. Global production in October was 6.2 million bpd higher than at the beginning of the year, according to IEA data. In fact, supply additions have far outpaced demand growth this year, a fact that compelled even the typically bullish Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries to acknowledge in its latest monthly oil market report that the supply overhang feared for 2026 had already appeared in the third quarter.

The Market Weighed the Impact of Sanctions on Russia’s Oil Supply - The oil market traded higher on Tuesday as it weighed the impact of sanctions on Russia’s oil supply and the news that the Trump administration had started interviewing for the next Federal Reserve chairman. The crude market continued to retrace Monday’s early gains and breached its previous low as it posted a low of $59.31 in overnight trading. However, the market retraced its losses and rallied sharply higher. The market was supported by the White House statement that U.S. President Donald Trump is willing to sign legislation to impose sanctions on Russia as long as President Trump retains the final authority over its implementation. The market briefly rallied more than $1 to a high of $60.92 in afternoon trading after President Trump announced the Federal Reserve chair interviews. The oil market breached a resistance line at $60.73 and retraced more than 62% of its move from a high of $62.59 to a low of $58.12 as it rallied to its high. The December WTI contract ended the session up 83 cents at $60.74 and the January Brent contract settled up 69 cents at $64.89. The WTI contract later traded to a new high of $60.93 in the post settlement period. The product markets ended the session higher, with the heating oil market settling up 15.41 cents at $2.7011 and the RB market settling up 92 points at $1.9993. Crude loadings at Russia’s Novorossiysk port are about two to three days behind schedule as damage caused by a November 14th Ukrainian attack has limited the capacity of a key jetty at the terminal. The Black Sea port of Novorossiysk and a neighboring Caspian Pipeline Consortium terminal suspended oil exports on Friday after the attack. Novorossiysk resumed crude loadings on Sunday.On Monday, BP said it responded to a release of refined products on the Olympic Pipeline System east of Everett, Washington, and had partially restored part of the system. The BP-operated Olympic shut its pipelines in the area after the discharge on Sunday. The segment of the pipeline system that was not impacted by the issue was restored on Sunday, resuming product delivery on that line. BP said the incident is still under investigation. Marathon Petroleum reported emissions from an aromatics unit No. 2 fugitives F-170 at its 631,000 bpd Galveston Bay, Texas refinery on November 17th. Separately, Marathon reported an emissions event at its 133,000 bpd El Paso refinery linked to the shutdown of a main fractionator reflux pump, which forced the company to begin shutting down process units to stabilize the plant. Marathon also reported unplanned flaring at its 365,000 bpd Carson, California refinery on Sunday as it works to finish upgrading the facility.Valero reported an upset at its delayed coking unit 843 at its 380,000 bpd Port Arthur, Texas refinery that caused a brief flaring event on Saturday.

Oil settles up 1% on Russia sanctions, interviews for next US Fed chair (Reuters) - Oil prices settled higher on Tuesday after a choppy session as traders weighed the impact of Western sanctions on Russian oil flows, as well as U.S. President Donald Trump saying his administration had started interviewing for the next Federal Reserve chair. Brent crude settled up 69 cents, or 1.07%, at $64.89 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was up 83 cents, or 1.39%, to $60.74. . U.S. crude futures briefly rose by more than $1 a barrel in afternoon trade to a session high of $60.92 after Trump announced the Federal Reserve chair interviews. Trump has been vocally critical of current Chair Jerome Powell for not cutting interest rates more quickly. “I think this news is supportive of the market because it is obvious what kind of person Trump will bring in for that job. This gave a risk-on type of nudge to the market," Lower borrowing costs typically boost demand for oil and push prices higher. The U.S. Treasury said sanctions imposed in October on Rosneft and Lukoil are already squeezing Russia's oil revenue and are expected to curb its export volumes over time. "Traders weighed the impact of a growing global surplus against U.S. sanctions that are disrupting Russian crude flows," A senior White House official said Trump was willing to sign Russian sanctions legislation as long as he retains final authority over its implementation. Trump said on Sunday that Republicans were drafting a bill to impose sanctions on any country doing business with Russia, adding that Iran could also be included. “This Russia sanctions legislation they are kicking around is exactly the type of secondary sanction that could make a real difference. The risk of losing Russian supplies is supportive and it has the attention of the market,” said Kilduff. Russia's Novorossiysk port resumed oil loadings on Sunday after a two-day suspension triggered by a Ukrainian missile and drone attack, according to two industry sources and data compiled by LSEG. Exports from Novorossiysk and a nearby Caspian Pipeline Consortium terminal, together representing about 2.2 million barrels per day, or roughly 2% of global supply, were halted on Friday, pushing crude prices up more than 2% that day. Oil prices are expected to decline through 2026, Goldman Sachs said on Monday, citing a supply wave that keeps the market in surplus. However, it noted that Brent could rise above $70 a barrel in 2026/2027 if Russian output falls more sharply. Meanwhile, U.S. crude and fuel stocks rose last week, market sources said, citing American Petroleum Institute figures on Tuesday. Crude stocks rose by 4.45 million barrels in the week ended November 14, the sources said on condition of anonymity. Gasoline inventories rose by 1.55 million barrels, while distillate inventories rose by 577,000 barrels from a week earlier, the sources said.

Oil Prices Sink 3% as Rising U.S. Inventories Deepen Oversupply Fears - Oil prices plummeted in early trading on Wednesday as traders reacted to another rise in U.S. oil inventories, and signals continue to mount that global supply is running ahead of demand. At the time of writing, WTI was trading at $58.91 per barrel, down 3.01% on the session... While Brent slipped to $63, down by roughly 2.91%. The drop came after prices had climbed in the previous session on the back of Trump announcing interviews for a new Fed chair, a statement that briefly lifted risk sentiment by reviving expectations of a more growth-friendly monetary stance. The latest report from the American Petroleum Institute was then released,showing U.S. commercial crude stocks rising by about 4.4 million barrels in the week to 14 November, with gasoline and distillate inventories also posting builds. This sizeable increase in crude stocks reinforced the perception that the world’s largest oil consumer is comfortably supplied as the year draws to a close. A survey compiled by The Wall Street Journal andreported by MarketWatch suggests that analysts are expecting a third straight weekly increase in crude inventories in the EIA's figures, which will be released later today. Both the API numbers and the expectation of another build being reported by the EIA today will add to oversupply concerns. The broader supply backdrop has turned steadily more bearish over the past few months, with the IEA warning that the 2026 oil glut could be worse than feared. U.S. crude production climbed to record levels last week, even as drilling activity slowed, and new customs and production data out of China show that the world’s biggest crude importer has been using the recent price moderation to quietly rebuild strategic and commercial stocks rather than ramping up refinery runs. Reuters’ analysis of October flows estimates that China’s combined domestic production and imports exceeded refinery throughput by about 690,000 bpd, the latest in a string of monthly surpluses that have added some 900,000 bpd to stockpiles since March. That pattern – buying extra crude when Brent dips into the mid-$60s – helps absorb some of the surplus on the water but also underlines that end-user fuel demand is not surging; refiners are choosing to store rather than sell. On the back of these developments, analysts are turning increasingly bearish on oil prices. A new oil market outlook from Goldman Sachs this week projects a roughly 2 million bpd global surplus in 2026 as delayed long-cycle projects come online, OPEC+ unwinds more of its remaining cuts, and non-OPEC supply from the U.S. and Brazil continues to edge higher. The bank now sees Brent averaging about $56 and WTI about $52 in 2026, well below current forward prices, with the International Energy Agency’s latest projections pointing to an even larger potential surplus if demand growth underperforms. While those forecasts don’t dictate today’s spot price, they do shape how much risk appetite there is among funds to buy dips in the front of the curve when the medium-term picture is one of abundant supply. The immediate focus is squarely on today’s EIA report, with another sizeable crude build, especially if accompanied by weaker gasoline or distillate demand, keeping pressure on prices into Thanksgiving. A smaller-than-expected build or a surprise draw, particularly in products, could spark a short-covering bounce but would not, on its own, erase the larger narrative of plentiful supply and cautious demand.

Surprise Crude Draw Stabilizes Oil Prices After Early Plunge On Russia Peace Talk Headlines -Oil prices tumbled overnight following API's report suggesting a large build in crude inventories, which would take oil stored in commercial tanks to the highest level in more than five months, if confirmed by official data this morning. The supply buildup may help cushion the impact of US sanctions against Russian producers Rosneft PJSC and Lukoil PJSC that are set to kick in within days, part of efforts to raise the pressure against Moscow to end the war in Ukraine. An Axios report that Washington has been working in consultation with the Kremlin to draft a new plan also eased supply concerns, though Moscow denied any talks. Additionally, Politico reported that the White House is expecting a new peace agreement with Russia by the end of November, which could bring the war with Ukraine to an end. While on the topic of Russia, Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak told journalists that while the country has under-utilized its OPEC+ allocation recently, within the coming months, Russia will be able to increase oil production to the level permitted under the OPEC+ agreement, he said. "I think within the next few months, perhaps by the end of the year, maybe at the beginning of next year, we will see how the companies [respond]," he said. "In November, production will be higher than in October. I cannot say exactly by how much right now, but there is an increase." So will the official data confirm API's report? API

• Crude +4.4mm
• Cushing -800k
• Gasoline +1.5mm
• Distillates +600k

DOE:

• Crude -3.426mm
• Cushing -698k
• Gasoline +2.327mm - first build in seven weeks
• Distillates +171k

Shocker: while API reported a big build, the official data showed a large crude inventory drawdown last week. Additionally, Gasoline stocks rose for the first time in seven weeks... Graphs Source: Bloomberg. Cushing stocks are hovering near 'tank bottoms' - so much for the SPR rebuild? US Crude production remains near record highs... WTI fell to around $59 overnight and is stabilizing there after the official data report... Finally, Prices were also pressured after failure to break past their 50-day moving average in recent days.

Oil settles down on renewed push to end Russia-Ukraine war(Reuters) - Oil prices fell on Wednesday after reports indicated the U.S. is renewing its push to end Russia's war in Ukraine and has drafted a framework for it. Brent crude futures fell $1.38, or 2.1%, to settle at $63.51 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures closed down $1.30, or 2.1%, to $59.44.. The U.S. has signaled to Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskiy that his side must accept a U.S.-drafted framework to end the war with Russia, which proposes Kyiv giving up territory and some weapons, two sources told Reuters. Zelenskiy said U.S. leadership had to remain effective in order to end the war which has lasted more than 3-1/2 years. The Ukrainian President said his Turkish counterpart Tayyip Erdogan had proposed different formats for talks. An end to the war in Ukraine might pave the way for higher Russian oil flows, adding to oversupply concerns, analysts said. "With the amount of oil on the water, in floating storage and what has been sanctioned, prices will probably end up in the low $50s as all of that oil that is sanctioned from Russia will probably come to market," said Scott Shelton, energy specialist at TP ICAP Group. Last month, the U.S. announced sanctions against Rosneft and Lukoil, setting a November 21 deadline for companies to wind down business with the Russian oil majors. The sanctions had already reduced Moscow's oil revenues and are likely to reduce the amount of oil it can sell in the long-term, the U.S. Treasury said on Monday. "There is maximum pressure right now as Friday's deadline is looming," said Rystad Energy oil analyst Janiv Shah, adding that a lower geopolitical risk premium would leave investors focusing more closely on weak market fundamentals. Russia's Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak denied that the sanctions were harming oil production, and said Russia will reach its OPEC+ production quota by the end of this year or early next year. Supporting oil prices, the U.S. Energy Information Administration reported a larger-than-expected draw from U.S. crude stockpiles last week on higher refinery runs and exports. The oil market is also suffering "headline fatigue" around Russia-Ukraine news, suggesting will likely stay rangebound in the short term as traders await firm agreements to end the war

Oil Prices Rise Ahead of U.S. Deadline to End Deals with Two Russian Firms --Oil prices climbed on Thursday following losses in the previous session, as markets weighed the latest U.S. proposals to end the war in Ukraine and prepared for the U.S.-imposed deadline to halt dealings with two major Russian oil companies. Brent crude futures rose 21 cents, or 0.33%, to $63.72 per barrel by 01:42 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude increased 24 cents, or 0.40%, to $59.68 per barrel. Both benchmarks had fallen nearly 2% on Wednesday. Thursday’s gains followed a Reuters report that the United States had signaled to Ukraine to accept a U.S.-crafted framework to end the conflict with Russia, involving concessions of some territory and weapons, according to two sources familiar with the matter. As part of U.S. efforts to end the conflict, Washington imposed sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil, Russia’s largest oil producers and exporters. The deadline to cease dealings with these firms is set for November 21. In response, Rosneft reduced its stake in the Kurdistan pipeline company—a major oil export route in Iraq’s Kurdistan region—to below 50% in order to protect its subsidiary from U.S. sanctions.

Sideways Trading on the Last Day of the December Contract - The oil market on Thursday continued to trend sideways and posted an inside trading day on the December contract’s last day as the spot contract. The market retraced some of its previous losses and posted a high of $60.33 by mid-day. However, the market erased all of its gains and sold off to a low of $58.86 in afternoon trading. The crude market erased its gains as the Trump administration was seeking Ukraine’s acceptance of a peace agreement with Russia to end the war. The market was also pressured as the equities markets sold off sharply following the earlier gains posted in the morning as jobs data clouded the outlook for further U.S. interest rate cuts. The December WTI contract went off the board down 30 cents at $59.14 and the January WTI contract settled down 25 cents at $59.00 and the January Brent contract settled down 13 cents at $63.38. Meanwhile, the product markets ended the session lower, with the heating oil market settling down 10.24 cents at $2.5333 and the RB market settling down 1.37 cents at $1.9184. Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said he and the visiting Secretary of the U.S. Army had discussed ways of achieving peace and pledged both sides would work on the points of a plan to end the war with Russia. He met with Army Secretary Dan Driscoll and the Army’s Chief of Staff Randy George. Ukraine’s President said he was ready to work with the U.S. on a plan to end the war in Ukraine and added that he expects to discuss it with U.S. President Donald Trump in coming days. Earlier, European countries pushed back on Thursday against a U.S.-backed peace plan for Ukraine that sources said would require Ukraine to give up more land and partially disarm. The Kremlin said that any peace plan for Ukraine would have to eliminate the root causes of the conflict and that though there were contacts with the United States there were currently no negotiations with Washington on such a plan. Bloomberg reported that U.S. sanctions on Russia’s Lukoil and Rosneft will take effect, jeopardizing about half the country’s crude exports or about 2.2 million bpd. It noted that despite the possible loss of 2% of global supply, oil prices are down about 20% its mid-June peak. It stated that the global market is oversupplied as OPEC+ revives idle output and producers outside the group also increase their output. A glut is forming and will get worse next year, meaning big buyers in India and China are not expecting too much trouble sourcing alternative barrels. Bloomberg also stated that while sanctions may work for a while, its effectiveness declines over time as the oil is eventually expected to find a buyer. On Wednesday, BP shut down the 400-mile Olympic Pipeline following a leak, halting fuel delivery from the system. The company restored one of the two pipelines east of Everett, Washington, on Monday that was shut to determine the source of some product discharge. However, the restored line was shut down again. BP said crews have begun excavation of the pipelines to allow for inspection, without providing a timeline for the repairs.

Oil slides as US pushes for Russia-Ukraine peace deal (Reuters) - Oil prices fell on Thursday as the administration of U.S. President Donald Trump pushed for Ukraine's acceptance of a peace agreement with Russia to end a war that has gone on for more than three years. Brent crude futures settled at $63.38 a barrel, down 13 cents, or 0.2%. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures finished at $59.14 a barrel, down 30 cents, or 0.5%. Both benchmarks rose earlier in Thursday's session on a larger-than-expected draw on U.S. crude supplies, reported on Wednesday by the U.S. Energy Information Administration. The U.S.-Russia peace proposal includes concessions of Ukrainian territory to Russia and reductions in Ukraine's armed forces, both of which Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskiy has previously rejected. On Thursday, Zelenskiy said he would look over the proposal and confer with the United States about the peace plan. "A lot of people thought this new proposal would be dead on arrival with Zelenskiy, but he didn't dismiss it out of hand," "Now the billion-dollar question is are the sanctions going to go into effect tomorrow? If they are close they might get lifted or delayed." U.S. sanctions on trading with Russian oil companies Rosneft and Lukoil come into effect on Friday, while Lukoil has until December 13 to sell its sprawling international portfolio. The bigger-than-expected draw in U.S. crude stockpiles reflected increased refining in response to strong margins and export demand for U.S. crude. Crude inventories fell by 3.4 million barrels to 424.2 million in the week ended November 14, the Energy Information Administration said, against a draw of 603,000 barrels projected by analysts in a Reuters poll. That said, analysts also noted that U.S. gasoline and distillate stockpiles increased for the first time in more than a month, suggesting slowing consumption.

Oil Market Sentiment Shifts as Peace Prospects Challenge Geopolitical Premium Oil prices are under renewed pressure as signals of potential diplomatic progress in Eastern Europe begin to reshape geopolitical risk expectations. Energy markets reacted to news that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky agreed to advance discussions on a U.S.-drafted peace framework, prompting traders to reassess the conflict-related risk premium embedded in crude benchmarks. Brent crude slipped 1.2% to $62.62 a barrel, while WTI declined 1.4% to $58.15. Both are heading for a weekly loss near 3%, reflecting not only softer geopolitical sentiment but also mounting concerns about an oversupplied market.For much of the past two years, geopolitical instability has played a central role in price formation, reinforcing a structural risk premium in Brent and WTI. The possible thaw in geopolitical tensions introduces a pivotal shift. If the conflict risk premium fades, crude pricing could increasingly return to fundamentals: supply capacity, demand resilience, and inventory trends.The market is already adjusting its focus toward supply-side risks. Sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil are set to take full effect, and traders are assessing potential disruptions in Russia’s export volumes. However, analysts emphasize that diplomatic progress could change the policy outlook. ANZ notes that a broader peace deal, particularly one that includes the easing of U.S. sanctions, could unlock additional Russian barrels for the global market. That would reinforce supply-side pressure and reduce the probability of a price rebound in the near term.This geopolitical recalibration is coming at a time when inventory levels are rising, refinery demand is seasonally weaker, and non-OPEC production growth remains resilient. The combined effect is shifting sentiment toward a bearish bias, underlining the fragility of the current pricing structure. Brent falling to $62.62 and WTI to $58.15 signals a break below psychological thresholds, increasing the likelihood of technical repositioning. Lower crude prices typically soften inflation expectations, which may indirectly influence rate-sensitive assets. However, the market reaction remains contained within commodity pricing for now. Energy equities also face growing headwinds. If sanctions unwind and Russian crude exports increase, upstream producers could see narrowing margins. Conversely, refiners and consumers in energy-importing economies would benefit from lower feedstock costs.Investor sentiment remains cautious. The decline of nearly 3% across both benchmarks this week indicates that traders are leaning toward supply re-expansion as the dominant narrative. Any confirmation of reduced geopolitical tensions could deepen that move.In the short term, pricing depends on two variables: confirmation of peace progress and clarity on the operational impact of sanctions enforcement.Base case: Diplomatic negotiations move forward, but sanctions remain only partially relaxed. Brent stabilizes in the low $60s, while WTI trades closer to the upper $50s as markets balance geopolitical easing with regulatory uncertainty.Alternative scenario: Peace negotiations accelerate and lead to sanction relief. Russian supply re-enters the market at scale, amplifying oversupply concerns and pushing prices toward deeper correction territory.Upcoming OPEC commentary and monthly market reports will deliver crucial guidance. If OPEC+ signals willingness to counterbalance potential supply increases, price stabilization could emerge. Without intervention, volatility could intensify.

Oil Prices Sink 2.6% After Zelenskyy Agrees to Work on Peace Deal -Oil prices dropped again on Friday morning, bogged down by fresh news that Ukraine's Zelenskyy agreed to work with Washington on a peace plan, a development that could ultimately add fresh barrels into an already fragile market. At the time of writing, West Texas Intermediate for December delivery had slipped by 2.51% to $57.52 per barrel... Brent crude, for its part, had fallen 2.19% to $61.99... A continued pullback would mark the third consecutive daily decline for WTI, putting the U.S. benchmark on track for a weekly loss of over 4%, a reflection of broader concerns over global supply growth and a weakening demand outlook. News of Zelenskyy considering the peace proposal comes on the same day that new U.S. sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil officially take effect, targeting key subsidiaries in an effort to restrict Kremlin revenue from fossil-fuel sales. While those sanctions should tighten supply, that has largely been baked into markets at this point. Russian Urals crude, already discounted due to sanctions, has been tradingas much as $23 per barrel below other global grades, evidence that sanctions are having an effect. In the U.S., crude stockpiles unexpectedly fell by 3.4 million barrels last week on the back of strong refinery activity. But the bullish inventory surprise failed to lift prices as traders remained focused on the geopolitical picture. Energy markets also faced macro-driven pressure, with Asian stocks declining sharply after Thursday’s U.S. employment data clouded expectations for imminent Federal Reserve rate cuts, boosting the dollar and intensifying risk-off sentiment. A stronger greenback, the currency hit a broad rally against major and commodity-linked currencies, further weighed on dollar-priced crude. OPEC+ remains a fundamental force in the overall bearishness of oil markets, with the group committed to boosting production in December before halting output increases in early 2026. If oil prices continue to tumble, then markets will look to the group to rein in its output. In the short term, markets will remain fixated on Kyiv and Washington for the next major signal, one that could determine the trajectory of crude heading into December.

Oil prices settle down at lowest in a month as US seeks Russia-Ukraine peace deal (Reuters) - Oil prices eased about 1% on Friday to settle at one-month lows as the U.S. pushed for a Russia-Ukraine peace deal that could boost global oil supplies, while uncertainty over U.S. interest rates curbed investors' risk appetite. Brent futures fell 82 cents, or 1.3%, to settle at $62.56 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude slid 94 cents, or 1.6%, to settle at $58.06. Both crude benchmarks were down about 3% for the week and at their lowest settlements since October 21. Market sentiment turned bearish as Washington pushed for a peace plan between Ukraine and Russia to end the three-year war, while sanctions on Russian oil producers Rosneft and Lukoil were set to take effect on Friday. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy warned on Friday that Ukraine risked losing its dignity and freedom — or Washington’s backing — over a Washington peace plan that , a proposal U.S. President Donald Trump said Kyiv should accept within a week. Russian President Vladimir Putin said on Friday that U.S. proposals for peace in Ukraine could be the basis of a resolution of the conflict but that if Kyiv turned down the plan then Russian forces would advance further. A peace deal could allow Russia to export more fuel. Russia was the second-biggest producer of crude oil in the world after the U.S. in 2024, according to U.S. federal energy data. "With the news of talks coming just as U.S. sanctions on Russia's two largest oil companies are due to take effect today, oil markets saw some relief on risks to Russian oil supply," said Jim Reid, a managing director at Deutsche Bank. However, a peace deal could be some way off. "An accord is far from certain," ANZ analysts said in a note to clients, adding that Kyiv has repeatedly dismissed Russia's demands as unacceptable. "The market is also becoming sceptical that the latest restrictions on Russian oil companies Rosneft and Lukoil will be effective," the analysts said. Lukoil has until December 13 to sell its huge international portfolio. A stronger U.S. dollar also weighed on oil prices. The greenback hit a six-month high versus a basket of other currencies, making dollar-priced oil more expensive for many global buyers. On U.S. interest rates, Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan called for leaving the policy rate on hold "for a time" while the central bank assesses how much of a brake the current level of borrowing costs is putting on the economy. Boston Fed President Susan Collins said policy was in the right place, suggesting she remains skeptical of the need to cut rates again at next month’s meeting. New York Fed President John Williams said the central bank can still cut interest rates "in the near term" without putting its inflation goal at risk. Lower interest rates could boost economic growth and oil demand. In other economic news, U.S. factory activity slowed to a four-month low in November as higher prices because of tariffs on imports restrained demand, leading to a piling up of unsold goods that could hinder growth in the overall economy.

Oil Drops 4% on Week as Russian Sanctions Deadline Hits -- Crude oil futures settled down almost 4% at the close of the week on Friday, Nov. 21, as concerns about growing global oversupply intensified when U.S. sanctions against Russian companies Rosneft and Lukoil took effect today. The bearish sentiment was due to expectations that millions of barrels of Russian oil could be stranded at sea. Crude buyers and transporters had been given until Nov. 21 by the U.S. Department of the Treasury to end trade relationships with Rosneft and Lukoil, otherwise they would face sanctions as well. The Trump administration is attempting to bring an end to the Russia-Ukraine war by depriving the Kremlin of critically needed oil money. Approximately 48 million bbl of Russian Urals and ESPO crudes from Rosneft and Lukoil were currently on water or in the process of being loaded, according to a Bloomberg report. The Russian supply at sea adds to recent forecasts from the International Energy Agency and the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries indicating that the market was in a glut as of the third quarter. "Indian refiners stopped buying Russian crude and China has also slowed purchases. Yet before we say bingo, petroleum prices are assessing the potential likelihood of a U.S.-brokered peace deal between Russia and Ukraine," Phil Flynn, analyst at Chicago's Price Futures Group, said in a commentary. Media reports stating that the U.S. government has also urged Ukraine to make territorial concessions, as part of a potential deal to end the war with Russia, helped limit some of the pressure on crude prices on Friday. The NYMEX WTI crude futures contract for January delivery settled down $0.94, or 1.6%, at $58.06 bbl. January ICE Brent futures contract fell $0.90, or 1.5%, to $62.48 bbl. WTI and Brent crude benchmarks lost 3.6% and 3%, respectively, on week. The December RBOB gasoline futures contract closed down $0.035 at $1.8834 gallon. Front-month ULSD futures dropped $0.0769 to $2.4564 gallon. The U.S. Dollar Index rose 0.045 points to 100.135 against a basket of foreign currencies.

Iranian Foreign Minister Says IAEA Resolution 'Disrupts' Cooperation - Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi on Thursday condemned a resolution passed by the International Atomic Energy Agency’s (IAEA) Board of Governors, saying that it “disrupts” cooperation between Tehran and the global nuclear watchdog.The 35-member Board of Governors passed a resolution drafted by the UK, France, Germany, and the US that called on Iran to provide “precise information” about its stockpile of enriched uranium and allow IAEA inspectors to access nuclear sites that were bombed by the US during the 12-Day War. The resolution demands that Iran take these steps “without delay.”“These countries, through this action and their disregard for Iran’s interactions and good faith, have undermined the credibility and independence of the Agency and will cause disruption in the process of interactions and cooperation between the Agency and Iran,” Araghchi said after the vote, according to a statement from Iran’s Foreign Ministry.Iran suspended cooperation with the IAEA following the 12-day US-Israeli war against the Islamic Republic over the agency’s role in providing a pretext for the initial attack and its lack of condemnation of the US and Israeli bombings of Iranian nuclear sites. Tehran also suspects that Israel obtained information about the Iranian nuclear scientists it assassinated from the IAEA.In September, Iran signed a new cooperation deal with the IAEA during talks in Cairo, but that agreement failed to make progress after the UK, France, and Germany triggered the “snapback” mechanism under the 2015 nuclear deal, which re-imposed UN Security Council sanctions on Iran. Araghchi said Iran was scrapping the Cairo deal in response to Thursday’s IAEA resolution, though he noted it has been effectively suspended due to the snapback sanctions.

Russia Confirms Ukraine Fired US-Provided ATACMS Missiles Into Russian Territory - The Russian Defense Ministry on Wednesday confirmed that Ukrainian forces fired US-provided ATACMS missiles into Russian territory a day earlier.The Russian Defense Ministry said that Ukraine fired the ATACMS at the southern Russian city of Voronezh, while the Ukrainian military said that it struck a military target. “Russian S-400 air defence crews and Pantsir missile and gun systems shot down all ATACMS missiles,” the Russian Defense Ministry wrote on Telegram.According to Reuters, the ministry said the debris from the downed ATACMS damaged a retirement home, an orphanage, and a house in Voronezh, but there were no casualties. The ministry shared photos of the remnants of the downed US-made missiles.Fragment of a US-made ATACMS missile in Russia’s Voronezh region (photo released by Russia’s Defense Ministry)ATACMS have a range of about 190 miles, and the Ukrainian military requires US targeting data to fire them. Ukraine was first given the green light to use the missiles in strikes on Russian territory by the Biden administration toward the end of 2024.According to media reports, the Trump administration had been blocking Ukraine’s use of ATACMS in strikes on Russian territory but recently reversed the policy. Last month, the Ukrainian military said it struck a chemical plant inside Russia using British-provided Storm Shadow missiles, which also require US targeting data.

NATO country's ship explodes in 'drone strike' as WW3 fears explode --A Turkish-flagged tanker, ORINDA, was struck in a reported drone attack near the Port of Izmail in Ukraine, causing a fire on board.The vessel, which was carrying liquified petroleum gas, was hit during evacuation operations, sparking a fire on board. An unidentified missile or rocket slammed into the ship while 16 crew members were evacuating.Thankfully, they managed to escape safely before the fire fully ignited and officials confirmed there were no injuries to the crew. Ukrainian firefighters quickly responded to the scene to support the crew, with Turkish authorities also keeping a close eye on the unfolding situation. It comes after Donald Trump made an incredibly rude gesture to a key figure in the Ukraine War. A more comprehensive assessment of the damage is anticipated once the fire is under control.This isn't the first time a Turkish-flagged ship has been targeted in the Black Sea since the onset of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, reports the Express. In 2024, Russia was suspected of launching a missile strike on a Turkish-operated cargo ship transporting Ukrainian grain to Egypt. The incident took place approximately 30 miles off Romania's coastline. The tanker was reportedly hit by a drone© denizhaber Which was outside national waters but within the country's exclusive maritime economic zone.While there were no casualties, the ship suffered significant damage.The year prior, a Turkish-owned cargo vessel was attacked and boarded by the Russian navy.Warning shots from automatic weapons were fired at the ükrü Okan before it was raided via helicopter roughly 37 miles off Turkey's northwest coast.Russia claimed the ship failed to respond when asked to stop.

NATO Scrambles Jets Amid One Of Deadliest Russian Attacks On Western Ukraine - Russia overnight carried out its typical aerial and drone strikes on Ukraine, but this time escalated attacks in Ukraine's West, which apparently were close enough to the border to cause alarm in nearby Poland and Romania. The two NATO member countries scrambled jet fighters in response amid the massive Russian and drone and missile strikes which killed at least 25 people, some of which were reported as children. Romania's defense ministry said that during the attacks on Ukraine a Russian drone entered its sovereign airspace. Its military then scrambled two Eurofighters which are part of NATO's fleet. An additional pair of Romanian F-16s were also sent. Simultaneously, Polish jets were launched to protect Polish airspace on Wednesday morning. "In connection with the attack by the Russian Federation carrying out strikes on facilities located on the territory of Ukraine, Polish and allied aviation is operating in our airspace," Poland's military announced. All of this caused some regional commercial airport closures:

• Poland temporarily shut down two airports in its southeast, Rzeszow and Lublin, the Polish Civil Aviation Authority said.
• The air hubs were closed to provide freedom for warplanes, the regulator explained.

Russian strikes also focused on Kharkiv, resulting in dozens injured, in the overnight hours. These eastern strikes have become frequent, but large-scale attacks on Western Ukraine are much more rare.Major direct hit on a residential area captured on video from the early morning hours... BBC describes of the carnage, "At least 25 people have been killed including three children in a Russian drone and missile attack on the western city of Ternopil that hit two blocks of flats, Ukrainian rescue officials say.""Another 73 people were wounded, 15 of them children, officials said, in one of the deadliest Russian strikes on western Ukraine since Moscow launched a full-scale war in 2022," the report continues.The attack comes at a moment of 'secretive' US-Russia talks based on a new 28-point peace plan by the Trump White House, but also as Europe is trying to rally bigger, urgent support to Kiev:The Western cities of Lviv and Ivano-Frankivsk were also hit, which wounded over 30 people, and resulted in buildings and cars destroyed and set ablaze. Russia is rejecting Ukrainian and European assertions it attacked civilian residencies, instead issuing a statement claiming the targets were military-linked defense industry buildings and energy sites:

NATO faces logistics challenge over moving tanks across EU in face of Russian threat - Long overlooked, the question of military mobility has returned to the forefront of Western priorities in response to the Russian threat. Amid delayed investments, bureaucratic hurdles and continued dependence on the United States, Europeans have been striving to build infrastructure capable of supporting the rapid deployment of alliance troops to the eastern flank. If there is one unique feature of the Alsatian detachment of the 6th Equipment Regiment (6th RMAT), it is the two tracks that connect it to the civilian rail network. The service members of this unit, based in Gresswiller, a town of 1,700 residents near France's border with Strasbourg, specialize in operational support and have nicknamed these tracks the Voie-Sacrée, or "Sacred Way," platform. This name pays homage to the vital logistical route that, during the 1916 Battle of Verdun in World War I, allowed troops, munitions and supplies to reach the front line. Beyond the railway line, mechanics, technicians and logisticians work in enormous hangars where equipment is stored, ready to be tested, repaired and shipped to French forces. In a way, it serves as the military's version of Amazon – a logistics hub where convoys can enter or leave through two gates opening directly onto the national railway tracks. This connection to the civilian rail network has proved a valuable asset. Since 2022, military command staffers have learned the lessons of the war in Ukraine, particularly from the failure of Russia's lightning offensive on Kyiv, which stemmed from shortcomings in fuel supply. With the prospect of a Russian military advance beyond Ukraine, into a country belonging to the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), having an effective logistical support chain to deploy troops to the eastern flank of Europe once again became a top priority.

As 'Golden Toilet' Corruption Scheme Rocks Ukraine, Support For Zelensky Plunges Below 20% - After Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s close associate, Timur Mindich, fled to Israel after allegedly masterminding a €100 million corruption scheme, it appears the Ukrainian public is turning on their leader — at least according to polls cited by a Ukrainian member of parliament. “According to the polls I’ve seen, Zelensky’s popularity has fallen below 20 percent,” said Ukrainian parliament member Yaroslav Zheleznyak.Zheleznyak’s comments came from a video on the Strana media outlet’s Telegram channel, cited by Hirado, On Nov. 10, the National Anti-Corruption Bureau of Ukraine (NABU) and the Special Anti-Corruption Prosecutor’s Office (SAPO), which are independent of Zelensky’s office, announced an investigation into a major corruption case related to the energy sector, dubbed Operation Midas.The salacious details saw police raid 70 locations and recover stacks of cash, still with barcodes from U.S. banks, in Mindich’s apartment, along with a golden toilet. The Golden toilet found in Mindich’s apartment. The Times of Israel provides more details in the case. Mindich has reportedly fled to Israel amid a probe of his growing influence within the country’s lucrative industries, and fears that his access was facilitated by his ties to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. The two were once business partners, and Mindich’s influence had expanded since Zelensky was elected in 2019.Mindich was a co-owner of Zelensky’s production company Kvartal 95, named for the comedy troupe that helped catapult the Ukrainian president to fame as a comedian before he entered politics. Zelensky transferred his stake in the company to his partners after he was elected.Despite expanding his business portfolio since Zelensky’s election, Mindich maintained ties to the entertainment world. Until the corruption probe was exposed this week, he was a producer of the comedy show “Stadium Family” on YouTube. In light of the scandal and his tarnished reputation, the show’s owners shut it down this week.He is also a relative of Leonid Mindich, who was arrested by Ukraine’s anti-corruption watchdogs in June when he was trying to flee the country, according to local reports; he was charged with embezzling $16 million from an electric power company.

Israeli Military Has Killed 266 Palestinians in Gaza Since 'Ceasefire' Went Into Effect: Health Ministry - The Israeli military has killed 266 Palestinians and wounded 635 since the US-backed “ceasefire” deal went into effect on October 10, Gaza’s Health Ministry said on Sunday.The Health Ministry said that over the previous 72-hour period, at least two Palestinians were killed by Israeli forces. The Palestinian news agencyWAFA reported on Sunday that at least one Palestinian was killed by an Israeli airstrike targeting a group of civilians to the east of Gaza City. A source at Nasser Hospital in southern Gaza told Al Jazeera that three Palestinians were killed by Israeli airstrikes east of Khan Younis.Dozens of Palestinians have been killed while allegedly crossing or approaching the so-called “yellow line,” the boundary that Israeli troops withdrew to under the ceasefire deal. The IDF has maintained a policy of shooting or bombing anyone who approaches the line, which is not clearly marked for the Palestinians on the ground. Many Palestinians want to return to their homes or the rubble of their homes on the Israeli-occupied side of Gaza.

In the first month of Gaza “ceasefire,” Israel has violated the agreement 282 times - According to information compiled by the Government Media Office in Gaza and reported by Al Jazeera, the Israeli military has repeatedly violated the ceasefire that was imposed on Palestinians by the Zionist state in collaboration with the government of President Donald Trump. The Al Jazeera report says that between October 10 and November 10, Israel breached the agreement at least 282 times, resulting in the death of 242 Palestinians and the wounding of 622. Through ongoing sustained military offensives and occupation actions, Israel has criminally violated the terms of the ceasefire. The Gaza Media Office figures show that Trump’s so-called “peace plan” amounts to a continuation of the campaign of violence and repression that began in October 2023 at the outset of the genocide. Cloaked in the language of “security” and “counter-terrorism,” the ongoing targeted assassinations and airstrikes have repeatedly hit civilian Palestinian infrastructure and humanitarian zones, obliterating homes, schools and medical facilities. Israeli forces have continued to directly target those attempting to deliver and receive humanitarian aid, further deepening the starvation and misery of Palestinians. Despite promises to allow up to 600 aid trucks daily, actual deliveries have fallen far short, a shortage compounded by Israeli announcements to further limit or halt distribution entirely. The overall death toll continues to mount with Gaza’s Ministry of Health now reporting over 69,000 Palestinian dead and tens of thousands more injured, with many bodies still trapped under debris. These figures alone expose any talk of “peace” as a cynical cover for ongoing atrocities. Following Trump’s high-profile Gaza “peace plan,” Israel has escalated its military operations under the banner of restoring order but in reality, orchestrated new massacres. Al Jazeera has detailed several of these episodes, including the deadliest day so far, when Israeli attacks killed 45 Palestinians in a series of coordinated strikes shortly after the ceasefire was proclaimed. The “peace” process coincided with the annexation and permanent occupation of vast sectors of Gaza, while regular killings continued in full view of the world’s population. So blatant are the violations that the Trump-backed plan has been quickly exposed as an instrument for Israel to consolidate its control, with every subsequent action—mass killings, forced displacement, starvation—carried out under its aegis. Israel Defense Forces Chief of the General Staff Lieutenant-General Eyal Zamir has openly declared the army’s intention to take control of further areas within Gaza, regardless of the red or yellow lines stipulated in the ceasefire plan. “Our troops continue operating along the Yellow Line to clear the area and eliminate terrorist strongholds,” Zamir stated, making explicit that the military “must be prepared to take control” beyond any established perimeter. Zamir’s public statements show that the Israeli military build-up in Gaza is continuing and that further advances are being prepared, intensifying the ethnic cleansing operation against Palestinians. Israeli officials anticipate that control will soon extend into all of Rafah, Khan Younis and significant portions north of Gaza City, with 75 percent of the territory coming under IDF rule. These policies were put forward as nonnegotiable, placing the continued presence of Israeli troops at the heart of the new Gaza order. Meanwhile, since the Gaza ceasefire on October 10, violence against Palestinians in the West Bank has surged with frequent raids, shootings, demolitions and settler attacks. The United Nations recorded over 260 settler incidents in October alone, the highest monthly total since record-keeping began in 2006. Israeli settlers have assaulted Palestinian farmers during the olive harvest, destroyed crops, burned homes and physically attacked residents, often with the acquiescence or collaboration of Israeli security forces. Israeli military operations have included ground raids in cities like Jenin and Tulkarm, resulting in dozens of deaths and injuries, including children, and thousands of Palestinians have been arrested or forcibly displaced since October. These attacks have caused immense suffering and displacement amid an environment of ongoing militarization and settlement expansion. This violence is part of increasing aggression across the West Bank, with nearly every governorate witnessing incursions, clashes and settler violence that contribute to what has been described as “slow-motion ethnic cleansing.” Palestinian communities face systematic deprivation, loss of homes and restricted access to essential resources, while Israel pursues legislative and military measures to consolidate control over the territory.

Israel Launches Major Attacks Across Gaza, Killing at Least 28 Palestinians, Including Many Children - The Israeli military launched strikes across Gaza on Wednesday, killing at least 28 Palestinians, including 17 women and children, as it continues to violate the US-backed ceasefire deal. The Israeli military claimed that its forces came under fire in Khan Younis, southern Gaza, but provided no evidence, and according to Israeli media, there were no casualties among IDF troops, and the attack occurred on the Israeli-occupied side of the yellow line. Hamas later denied that its fighters fired on Israeli troops, and called the claim “a weak and exposed attempt to justify their ongoing crimes and violations.” Following the alleged incident, the IDF unleashed strikes on Gaza City. The Palestinian news agency WAFA reported that one Israeli strike targeted the Ministry of Awqaf and Religious Affairs in southeastern Gaza City, killing at least 10 people, including two women and three children. Al Jazeera reported that a family of five in Gaza City’s Zeitoun neighborhood was wiped out by Israeli strikes. In southern Gaza, WAFA reported that at least four Palestinians were killed by Israeli strikes on the al-Mawasi tent camp on the coast. The news agency also said that an Israeli attack on a neighborhood of Khan Younis killed two children.

HRW Says Israel's 'Ethnic Cleansing' of West Bank Refugee Camps Amounts to War Crimes - Human Rights Watch said in a report on Thursday that the Israeli military’s forced displacement of Palestinians in three refugee camps in the northern Israeli-occupied West Bank amounts to “ethnic cleansing” and “war crimes.”The IDF began a major military offensive in the northern West Bank in January 2025, dubbed “Operation Iron Wall,” which began after a temporary Gaza ceasefire deal was reached. The IDF quickly displaced tens of thousands of residents of the Jenin, Tulkarm, and Nur Shams refugee camps, and began destroying many of their homes.At the time, Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz said the Palestinians wouldn’t be able to return, and he has kept that promise. The HRW said that the approximately 32,000 people who have been forcibly removed from the camps have been unable to return.“Since the raids and forced displacement, Israeli authorities have repeatedly and uniformly denied camp residents the right to return to the camps, even though there are no active military operations taking place in the vicinity,”the report said. “Israeli soldiers have fired upon people trying to reach their homes, while only very few whose homes have been slated for demolition have been permitted a short window to return to collect essential belongings.”Within the first six months of Operation Iron Wall, the Israeli military demolished at least 850 homes and other buildings across the three camps. “With global attention focused on Gaza, Israeli forces have carried out war crimes, crimes against humanity, and ethnic cleansing in the West Bank that should be investigated and prosecuted,” said Nadia Hardman, senior refugee and migrant rights researcher at Human Rights Watch.

Israel's Ben Gvir Calls for the Killing of Palestinian Authority Officials If UN Backs Palestinian State - Israeli Minister of National Security Itamar Ben Gvir has called for the assassination of Palestinian Authority officials and for PA President Mahmoud Abbas to be placed in solitary confinement if the UN advances the recognition of a Palestinian state.“A ‘Palestinian’ state of the ‘invented people’ who call themselves ‘Palestinian’ must never be established, because the aspiration of those seeking to establish such a state is to build it on the ruins of the State of Israel,” Ben Gvir said at a meeting of his Jewish Power party, according toThe Times of Israel.“If they accelerate recognition of a Palestinian terror state… orders must be given for targeted killings of senior Palestinian Authority officials — who are terrorists in every respect — as well as an order for the arrest of [Mahmoud Abbas]. There is a solitary confinement cell ready for him in Ketziot Prison,” he added.As the minister of national security, Ben Gvir oversees Israeli prisons, where at least 98 Palestinians have died since October 7, 2023, according to new data, due to torture, food deprivation, medical neglect, and other Israeli abuses.Ben Gvir’s call for the killing of PA officials came ahead of a UN Security Council resolution that would authorize the deployment of an “International Stabilization Force” to Gaza. Some states initially objected to the resolution because it made no mention of a Palestinian state, prompting the US to add an amendment that says once the PA “faithfully carried out and Gaza redevelopment has advanced, the conditions may be in place for a credible pathway to Palestinian self-determination and statehood.”The US issued a joint statement with several Arab states on Friday that said the US resolution “offers a pathway to Palestinian self-determination and statehood.” But the Israeli government has made clear that it’s very opposed to the establishment of the Palestinian state, and the US plan for Gaza doesn’t address the Israeli occupation of the West Bank and the continued expansion of illegal Jewish settlements in the territory.

Israel Attacks UNIFIL Peacekeepers in Southern Lebanon - Adding to a growing number of such incidents, the UNIFIL peacekeepers in southern Lebanon reported on Sunday that the Israeli military attacked their personnel. This incident saw Israeli tanks fire on the UNIFIL near one of the military outposts the IDF has built in Lebanese territory. No UNIFIL troops were injured in the incident, though they had to hunker down in a position for 30 minutes before withdrawing from the area. The IDF claimed the weather was poor and they mistook the UNIFIL for “suspects,” though they also claimed firing on them was not “deliberate.” This is the first Israeli attack on the UNIFIL this month, but in October, they had two incidents in which Israeli drones dropped grenades on the UNIFIL, one of which wounded a UNIFIL member. The IDF continually referred to the UNIFIL as “suspects.”