Fed Chair Powell calls inflation 'frustrating' and sees it running into next year -- Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell still expects inflation to ease eventually, but said Wednesday that he sees the current pressures running into 2022. Assessing the current economic situation, the Fed chief said during a panel discussion hosted by the European Central Bank that he was "frustrated" that getting people vaccinated and arresting the spread of the Covid delta variant "remains the most important economic policy that we have." "It's also frustrating to see the bottlenecks and supply chain problems not getting better — in fact at the margins apparently getting a little bit worse," he added. "We see that continuing into next year probably, and holding up inflation longer than we had thought." Inflation by the Fed's preferred measure is running at its hottest pace in about 30 years. Powell and most of his colleagues say they expect the current pressures to decline back to trend as supply chain bottlenecks ease and demand goes back to pre-pandemic levels. He said Wednesday that 2022 should be "quite a strong year" for economic growth. However, officials as of late have acknowledged that the current inflation conditions have not eased the way the Fed thought they would. The Federal Open Market Committee last week collectively raised its projection for 2021 core inflation to 3.7% from the 3% forecast in June. "The current inflation spike is really a consequence of supply constraints meeting very strong demand, and that is all associated with the reopening of the economy, which is a process that will have a beginning, a middle and an end," Powell said. "We see those things resolving," he said. "It's very difficult to say how big those effects will be in the meantime or how long they will last." Powell's continued expectations that inflation is temporary were echoed by European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde, who sat on the panel with Powell, Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey and Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda. "We monitor very carefully, but we certainly have no reason to believe that these price increases we are seeing now will not be largely transitory going forward," Lagarde said.
Sen. Warren calls Fed Chair Powell a 'dangerous man,' says she will oppose his renomination -- Sen. Elizabeth Warren charged Tuesday that Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has led an effort to weaken the nation's banking system, and she vowed to oppose his renomination. In remarks made during a hearing before the Senate Banking Committee, the Massachusetts Democrat cited several instances where she said the Powell Fed has watered down post-financial crisis bank regulations. "Your record gives me grave concerns. Over and over, you have acted to make our banking system less safe, and that makes you a dangerous man to head up the Fed, and it's why I will oppose your renomination," Warren said. Powell did not respond to Warren's comment that she will oppose him. Warren said deregulatory moves could cause another calamity the likes of which the U.S. saw during the 2008-09 breakdown of Wall Street institutions. She called Powell "lucky" that banks thus far have been able to avoid major problems, citing the Archegos Capital Management collapse and the banking industry's collective need for Fed assistance during the coronavirus pandemic as dangers to the system exacerbated by deregulatory moves. "So far you've been lucky. But the 2008 crash shows what happens when the luck runs out," she said. "The seeds of the 2008 crash were planted years in advance by major regulators like the Federal Reserve that refused to rein in big banks. I came to Washington after the 2008 crash to make sure nothing like that would ever happen again." Powell has served since 2018 and his term expires in February. Wall Street widely expects President Joe Biden to renominate Powell, though Warren and other more liberal senators are likely to provide some resistance.
Key lawmaker at center of spending bill debate demands Fed end asset purchases -Sen. Joe Manchin says he will make a deal with his own Democratic party on a spending bill, but only if the Federal Reserve begins pulling back on its monetary stimulus to the economy. In a signed agreement with Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.), Manchin said he would only support a budget resolution with a top-line number of $1.5 trillion, with no funds in the new legislation disbursed until after all COVID-related federal spending is exhausted. Another condition: The “Federal Reserve ends quantitative easing,” referring to the central bank’s efforts to prop up the economy through asset purchases. Through QE, the Fed is currently buying about $120 billion a month in U.S. Treasuries and agency mortgage-backed securities.Politico first reported the agreement, which was dated July 28, 2021 but has been circulating in recent days to reiterate Manchin’s stance on the spending debate.Manchin has been fixated on the Fed’s easy money policies as readings on inflation surged through the summer. In August, Manchin penned a letter to Fed Chairman Jerome Powell blaming the pace of rising prices to the Fed’s asset purchases.“I am deeply concerned that the continuing stimulus put forth by the Fed, and proposal for additional fiscal stimulus, will lead to our economy overheating and to unavoidable inflation taxes that hard working Americans cannot afford,” Manchin wrote.Manchin’s concerns with QE extend as far back as 2013, when he voted against Janet Yellen’s nomination for Fed Chair on the basis that she didn’t support “a limit nor a desire to back off” the post-financial crisis QE program.It is unclear how Congress would actually go about forcing the Fed to start slowing its QE program, but any efforts to do so may be moot given the central bank’s messaging that it will likely announce its intention to do so in just a little over a month.
Boston and Dallas Fed chiefs at center of trading scandal to resign — Robert Kaplan, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, announced that he would step down next week, just hours after Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren said he would resign.Kaplan said Monday afternoon he wanted "to eliminate any distractions” at the Fed after it was revealed that he had engaged in certain trading activity last year while privy to the central bank’s internal discussions about its coronavirus response.Rosengren, whose personal investments also came into question after the Wall Street Journal reported both his and Kaplan’s financial disclosures, said Monday morning that hewill step down this week — nine months earlier than planned — due to a health condition.
Two Fed officials depart amid scrutiny over investment trades - (Reuters) - Two Federal Reserve officials who came under scrutiny for investment trades they made last year announced their retirements on Monday, in a controversy that has already sparked a planned review of the Fed’s ethics rules. Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan said he will retire on Oct. 8, citing the “distraction” of the controversy over his investments, while Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren said he will retire on Sept. 30, pointing to a long-term health condition.The two are among 12 regional Fed presidents that get rotating seats on the central bank’s powerful monetary policy committee, which sets U.S. interest rates.Kaplan and Rosengren had faced calls to step down for investment trades made in 2020, a year in which the Fed took unprecedented action to steady the economy, while news of the transactions, revealed in recent financial disclosures, raised questions about the effectiveness of Fed trading guidelines for policymakers.Their departure came after Fed Chair Jerome Powell, who is nearing the end of his term and under consideration for reappointment as Fed chief, called earlier this month for a review of the central bank’s ethics rules and said the policies need to change. Powell is due to testify before the Senate Banking committee on Tuesday, where he may face questions from Democratic Senator Elizabeth Warren, who has demanded stricter ethics rules at the regional Fed banks.According to financial disclosures first reported by the Wall Street Journal , Kaplan made multiple million dollar trades in individual stocks in 2020. Rosengren invested in real estate investment trusts on a smaller scale, but he was criticized for making the moves while also calling out risks in the real estate sector.The financial disclosures did not look strikingly different from prior years, and both officials said their investment trades were cleared by ethics officers and did not violate Fed policy. They also previously agreed to sell their stock holdings by the end of September to avoid even the appearance of a conflict of interest. But the actions were still viewed as problematic here during a year when millions of Americans lost their jobs and the Fed took sweeping action to stabilize financial markets and the economy in the wake of the rapidly-unfolding pandemic. When asked if he trusted the two regional Fed bank presidents to do their jobs, Powell said last week that "in terms of having confidence and that sort of thing, I think, no one is happy here."
Key inflation gauge watched by the Federal Reserve hits another 30-year high --Inflation ran at a fresh 30-year high in August as supply chain disruptions and extraordinarily high demand fueled ongoing price pressures, the Commerce Department reported Friday.The core personal consumption expenditures price index, which excludes food and energy costs and is the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation, increased 0.3% for the month and was up 3.6% from a year ago. The monthly gain was slightly higher than the 0.2% Dow Jones estimate and the annual forecast of 3.5%.That's the highest since May 1991 and reflective of inflationary pressures that Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said earlier this week he finds "frustrating."On a headline basis, PCE prices rose 0.4% for the month and 4.3% year over year, the highest since January 1991. That reflected a 24.9% increase in energy prices and a 2.8% rise in food.Goods prices rose by 5.5% while services increased by 3.6%.The rise in inflation came as personal income increased 0.2% for the month, in line with estimates but indicative that real income is falling as inflation rises. Spending accelerated 0.8%, slightly above the 0.7% forecast.Personal savings totaled $1.71 trillion, running at a 9.4% rate and a decrease from 10.1% in July. The savings rate peaked at 33.8% in April 2020 in the early days of the pandemic as the government rushed out payments to individuals and businesses were shut down to combat the Covid spread.A separate report Friday morning showed that manufacturing continued to expand.The ISM Manufacturing index for September registered a 61.1 reading, representing the percentage of companies seeing expansion. Anything above 50 represents growth; the Dow Jones estimate was 59.5. The survey also showed prices rising, with 81.2% of respondents reporting increases against 79.4% in August.
PCE Price Index: August Headline at 4.3% YoY -- The BEA's Personal Income and Outlays report for August was published this morning by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The latest Headline PCE price index was up 0.40% month-over-month (MoM) and is up 4.26% year-over-year (YoY). Core PCE (YoY) is now at 3.62%, above the Fed's 2% target rate. The adjacent thumbnail gives us a close-up of the trend in YoY Core PCE since January 2012. The first string of red data points highlights the 12 consecutive months when Core PCE hovered in a narrow range around its interim low. The second string highlights the lower range from late 2014 through 2015. Core PCE shifted higher in 2016 with a decline in 2017, 2019, and 2020. The first chart below shows the monthly year-over-year change in the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index since 2000. Also included is an overlay of the Core PCE (less Food and Energy) price index, which is Fed's preferred indicator for gauging inflation. The two percent benchmark is the Fed's conventional target for core inflation. Most recently, the Fed reviewed their monetary policy strategy and longer-term goals and released a statement, mentioning its federal mandate to promote "maximum employment, stable prices, and moderate long-term interest rates". They also confirmed their commitment to using the two percent benchmark as a lower limit:"The inflation rate over the longer run is primarily determined by monetary policy, and hence the Committee has the ability to specify a longer-run goal for inflation. The Committee reaffirms its judgment that inflation at the rate of 2 percent, as measured by the annual change in the price index for personal consumption expenditures, is most consistent over the longer run with the Federal Reserve's statutory mandate. The Committee judges that longer-term inflation expectations that are well anchored at 2 percent foster price stability and moderate long-term interest rates and enhance the Committee's ability to promote maximum employment in the face of significant economic disturbances. In order to anchor longer-term inflation expectations at this level, the Committee seeks to achieve inflation that averages 2 percent over time, and therefore judges that, following periods when inflation has been running persistently below 2 percent, appropriate monetary policy will likely aim to achieve inflation moderately above 2 percent for some time." Read the August 2020 statement here
Q2 GDP Growth Revised up to 6.7% Annual Rate - From the BEA: Gross Domestic Product, (Third Estimate), GDP by Industry, and Corporate Profits (Revised), 2nd Quarter 2021: Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 6.7 percent in the second quarter of 2021, according to the "third" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the first quarter, real GDP increased 6.3 percent. The "third" estimate of GDP released today is based on more complete source data than were available for the "second" estimate issued last month. In the second estimate, the increase in real GDP was 6.6 percent. Upward revisions to personal consumption expenditures (PCE), exports, and private inventory investment were partly offset by an upward revision to imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP. Here is a Comparison of Third and Second Estimates. PCE growth was revised up from 11.9% to 12.0%. Residential investment was revised down from -11.5% to -11.7%. This was at the consensus forecast.
Q2 GDP Third Estimate: Real GDP Up To 6.7% - The Third Estimate for Q2 GDP, to one decimal, came in at 6.7% (6.73% to two decimal places), an increase from 6.3% (6.28% to two decimal places) for the Q1 Third Estimate. Investing.com had a consensus of 6.6%.Here is the slightly abbreviated opening text from the Bureau of Economic Analysis news release:Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 6.7 percent in the second quarter of 2021 (table 1), according to the "third" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the first quarter, real GDP increased 6.3 percent.The "third" estimate of GDP released today is based on more complete source data than were available for the "second" estimate issued last month. In the second estimate, the increase in real GDP was 6.6 percent. Upward revisions to personal consumption expenditures (PCE), exports, and private inventory investment were partly offset by an upward revision to imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP (see "Updates to GDP"). [Full Release]Here is a look at Quarterly GDP since Q2 1947. Prior to 1947, GDP was an annual calculation. To be more precise, the chart shows is the annualized percentage change from the preceding quarter in Real (inflation-adjusted) Gross Domestic Product. We've also included recessions, which are determined by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). Also illustrated are the 3.19% average (arithmetic mean) and the 10-year moving average, currently at 2.30%.
Economic growth revised up slightly to 6.7% annual rate in second quarter - U.S. gross domestic product grew at a 6.7% annualized rate in the second quarter of 2021, a final estimate from the Bureau of Economic Analysis showed Thursday morning. The slight upward revision of a tenth of a percentage point indicates that economic growth from April through June was heading in the right direction following last year’s pandemic-induced recession. The numbers are an about-face from the same period a year ago when the economy stagnated and plunged a record 31.4%. Accommodation and food services led as the largest driver of growth, while retail trade and transportation and warehousing saw declines. The news comes the same day as the weekly jobless report, which was worse than expected once again. While GDP has grown at a hot pace, the labor market is lagging and the unemployment rate is still well above what it was prior to the pandemic. “Negative surprise alert: New jobless claims have risen for a third straight week, surging by 11,000 to 362,000. The latest increase confounded hopes for improvement," said Mark Hamrick, Bankrate's senior economic analyst. The first quarter of this year also saw breakneck growth, with the economy expanding by 6.4% as vaccines became more accessible and businesses began seeing consumers start to return. Economic growth has largely been driven by a return of the retail, service, and hospitality industries, which nosedived during the height of the pandemic amid consumers’ fears of contracting COVID-19 and government restrictions on businesses. Despite the growth in the second quarter, GDP estimates for the rest of the year have been revised down by the Federal Reserve and economists because of surging cases of the delta variant, which began this summer. The central bank recently slashed its GDP prediction from 7% in 2021 to 5.9% and slashed its growth forecast from 3.8% to 3.3% for next year in light of the affect that the new strain is having on the economy. Goldman Sachs also recently revised down its GDP forecast for 2021 from 6.2% to 5.7%, and Wells Fargo also cut some of its GDP predictions.
Q3 GDP Forecasts: More Downgrades --Here is a table of some of the forecasts over the last two months. The significant downgrades during the quarter were primarily due to analysts initially underestimating the recent COVID wave, and also the impact of supply chain disruptions. […] From BofA Merrill Lynch: Following this week's data, 3Q GDP tracking dropped to 4.1% qoq saar from 4.5% previously. The August deterioration in the goods trade deficit was the main driver. [Oct 1 estimate] From Goldman Sachs: Following this morning’s data, we left our Q3 GDP tracking estimate unchanged at +4¼% (qoq ar). [Oct 1 estimate] And from the Altanta Fed: GDPNow:The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2021 is 2.3 percent on October 1, down from 3.2 percent on September 27. After recent releases from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis, the US Census Bureau, and the Institute for Supply Management, the nowcasts of third-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and third-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth decreased from 2.2 percent and 15.9 percent, respectively, to 1.4 percent and 12.9 percent, respectively, while the nowcast of the contribution of the change in real net exports to third-quarter real GDP growth increased from -1.36 percentage points to -1.27 percentage points. [Oct 1 estimate]
Seven High Frequency Indicators for the Economy --These indicators are mostly for travel and entertainment. It will interesting to watch these sectors recover as the pandemic subsides. The TSA is providing daily travel numbers.This data is as of September 26th. This data shows the 7-day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Light Blue), 2020 (Blue) and 2021 (Red). The 7-day average is down 24.5% from the same day in 2019 (75.5% of 2019). (Dashed line) The red line usually increases seasonally after Labor Day. But, so far, it appears business traffic is soft. The second graph shows the 7-day average of the year-over-year change in diners as tabulated by OpenTable for the US and several selected cities. This data is updated through September 25, 2021. This data is "a sample of restaurants on the OpenTable network across all channels: online reservations, phone reservations, and walk-ins. Note that this data is for "only the restaurants that have chosen to reopen in a given market". Since some restaurants have not reopened, the actual year-over-year decline is worse than shown. Dining picked up for the Labor Day weekend, but declined after the holiday. The 7-day average for the US is down 11% compared to 2019. This data shows domestic box office for each week and the median for the years 2016 through 2019 (dashed light blue). The data is from BoxOfficeMojo through September 23rd. Movie ticket sales were at $63 million last week, down only about 55% from the median for the week. This graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four week average. The red line is for 2021, black is 2020, blue is the median, dashed purple is 2019, and dashed light blue is for 2009 (the worst year on record for hotels prior to 2020). This data is through September 18th. The occupancy rate was down 11.6% compared to the same week in 2019. The comparison to 2019 was difficult this week due to the timing of Labor Day. With solid leisure travel, the Summer months had decent occupancy - but it is uncertain what will happen in the Fall with business travel - usually weekly occupancy increases to around 70% in the weeks following Labor Day due to renewed business travel. This graph, based on weekly data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), shows gasoline supplied compared to the same week of 2019. As of September 10th, gasoline supplied was down 4.8% compared to the same week in 2019. There have been five weeks so far this year when gasoline supplied was up compared to the same week in 2019. This graph is from Apple mobility. From Apple: "This data is generated by counting the number of requests made to Apple Maps for directions in select countries/regions, sub-regions, and cities." This data is through September 25th for the United States and several selected cities. According to the Apple data directions requests, public transit in the 7 day average for the US is at 119% of the January 2020 level. New York City is doing well by this metric, but subway usage in NYC is down sharply (next graph). This graph on New York subway usage is from Todd W Schneider. This is weekly data since 2015. Most weeks are between 30 and 35 million entries, and currently there are clsoe to 15 million subway turnstile entries per week - and moving up recently. This data is through Friday, September 24th. Schneider notes: "Data updates weekly from the MTA’s public turnstile data, usually on Saturday mornings".
Supply chain woes from Covid and energy may ignite stagflation, economist Stephen Roach warns - Economist Stephen Roach is warning that the U.S. may be on a collision course with 1970s-type inflation.The former Morgan Stanley Asia chairman is worried that the impact of energy price spikes on China's struggling supply chain will be the tipping point.Crude oil topped $80 a barrel this week for the first time since 2018 before settling to the mid-$70s."We've had supply chain issues really now for the past year and a half. They've afflicted many commodities, inputs like semiconductors and now there's energy and power related shortages in China," Roach told CNBC's "Trading Nation" on Wednesday.He started sounding the alarm about China's supply chain problems last year as the country was trying to cope with Covid-19 shutdowns."We were sort of one supply chain glitch away from stagflation," said Roach, a Yale senior fellow and leading authority on Asia. "That seems to be playing out, unfortunately."Stagflation refers to pressures that push prices higher during periods of slowing growth."It's worrisome for the overall economic outlook and raises serious questions about the wisdom of central bank policies — especially that of the Federal Reserve," he said.Roach is critical of the Fed's historic easy money policies, questioning the need for excess stimulus amid sharp and likely long-term inflation."The likelihood of continued [supply chain] bottlenecks moving from one area to another, which is strikingly reminiscent of what we saw in the early 1970s, suggests that inflation will stay at these elevated levels for longer than we thought," Roach said. "The Federal Reserve is already beginning to back pedalon its recent view that these pressures will fade quickly."If stagflation materializes, he contends, it could coincide with the holiday spending season."The impact will primarily be through the price level," said Roach. "We need to look much more carefully about the potential risks."His latest prediction comes two months after he warned on "Trading Nation" that the U.S. and China were in the early stages of a cold war. According to Roach, the relationship is still contentious as China's "common prosperity" push looks to level out wealth. "The real risk is this potential sea change in policy strategy," Roach said.
The Debt Ceiling As Kabuki by Menzie Chinn -From Marketplace yesterday, “The debt ceiling explained” (Dylan Miettinen): To default, however, would be “seriously damaging,” Irving said. The U.S. Treasury websiteprefers the term “catastrophic,” saying that if the U.S. did in fact default on its obligations, it would precipitate a financial crisis. “In concrete terms, you could see the price or the valuation of U.S. Treasury debt going down, which is the same as saying interest rates are going to rise for U.S. government borrowing. What that’s going to do is it’s going to tend to blow up our deficit faster than it otherwise would,” saidMenzie Chinn, a professor of public affairs and economics at the University of Wisconsin – Madison. Its impact on everyday life would be felt immediately, Chinn said. For example, if the government is unable to pay its bills, that would mean it would be unable to make payments to those who work in the military, federal government workers or those who depend on Social Security. Food assistance benefits could be stopped for millions of Americans, too. Zandi and Yaros and Moody’s Analytics have a report outlining some of the damages to the US economy if the US defaulted to any significant degree (a two week delay in payments induces a 4% peak to trough decline in GDP (GDP would contract for 2 quarters before starting to grow again), and 6 million jobs lost. Two figures from the report are useful for evaluating the timing, and impact. Figure 3 shows how Treasury yields rose as the last crisis unfolded. The yields reverted back to pre-crisis levels fairly quickly then, but Zandi and Yaros note: …a 1979 episode when Treasury inadvertently missed payments on Treasury bills maturing that spring. The mishap was caused in part by fallout from a delay in raising the debt limit, but also by problems with word processing equipment the Treasury used at the time to pay investors. Even though investors received their payments with only a small delay, T-bill yields initially jumped by 60 basis points and remained elevated for several months thereafter. The cost to taxpayers was ultimately in the tens of billions of dollars. What are the implications just for debt accumulation? Here is what I wrote back when we had the last round of contentious debt ceiling negotiations (Democratic President, Republican Congressional opposition, January 2013): It is one of the oddities of current discourse in macroeconomic policy that there are concerns about the short term sustainability of the Federal government’s abilities to finance debt, despite the fact that the on the run ten year TIPS (maturing 1/15/2022) is -0.760% (1/11/13). I do believe there is reason for concern in the long term. However, should we encounter difficulties in raising the debt ceiling, the timetable could be greatly accelerated.
GOP blocks debt limit hike, government funding - Senate Republicans on Monday evening blocked a measure to fund the government and suspend the debt ceiling, carrying through on their threat to not deliver votes for a Democratic measure to raise the government's borrowing limit. The vote was being held open at 48-50 more than an hour after it began. Sixty votes were needed to advance the measure. No Republicans voted for the legislation. The setback is the latest in a slow-motion brawl over how to fund the government and deal with the debt ceiling, which kicked back in on Aug. 1 with the Treasury Department using “extraordinary measures” since then to keep the government solvent. Congress has until the end of Thursday to pass a government funding bill to avoid a shutdown the following day. The deadline for needing to deal with the country’s borrowing limit is less definite. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen warned congressional leadership they might need to take action as soon as next month. Democratic leaders haven’t unveiled what their next step will be, but they are vowing to prevent a shutdown on their watch. In order to deliver on that promise, they’ll need Republican cooperation to speed up a government funding bill. Senate Majority Leader Charles Schumer (D-N.Y.) initially voted to start debate but switched his vote — a procedural move that allows him to easily bring the measure back up for consideration. "I changed my vote from yes to no in order to reserve the option of additional action on the House-passed legislation. Keeping the government open and preventing a default is vital to our country's future and we'll be taking further action to prevent this from happening this week," Schumer said. If they punt the debt fight for now, they have options on funding the government, either sticking with the Dec. 3 end date or going with a bill to try to line it up with the potential “x” date in the coming weeks when Congress will have to address the debt ceiling. “Well, I don’t want to shut down the government,” said Sen. Dick Durbin (D-Ill.), while noting Schumer has the final say on strategy.
Schumer to try to get deal to bypass filibuster on debt hike -Senate Majority Leader Charles Schumer (D-N.Y.) said on Tuesday that he will try to bypass the legislative filibuster on increasing the country's borrowing limit — a move expected to be blocked by Republicans. The move by Schumer, which he said he will request later Tuesday, comes after Republicans blocked a House-passed government funding and debt ceiling bill from getting the 60 votes needed to break a legislative filibuster on Monday night. Schumer said that he will ask the Senate for unanimous consent, which any one GOP senator can object to and block, to set up a vote on a debt ceiling increase that could pass by a simple majority. That would allow Democrats to suspend the debt ceiling on their own. "I will ask unanimous consent for the Senate to hold a vote to increase the debt limit at a majority threshold. ... It would be very similar to the process that Leader [Mitch] McConnell cited yesterday favorably which allowed for the debt limit to be increased without the minority party providing any of the votes needed to do so," Schumer said. "If the Republicans really want to see the debt ceiling raised without providing a single vote, I'm prepared to hold that vote," Schumer added. Under the Senate's rules, any one senator can make a request but any one senator can block it. McConnell, speaking from the Senate floor on Monday, noted that Republicans previously raised the debt ceiling on their own when they had a unified government during the Bush years. "When Republicans had unified control in the early 2000's, then-senators Biden and Schumer voted 'no' on a debt limit increase and made the party in power handle it on their own," McConnell said. But Democrats, at the time, didn't filibuster the bill, meaning Republicans were able to increase the debt ceiling with a simple majority and didn't need to break a 60-vote legislative filibuster. But GOP leaders have acknowledged that they have members of their caucus who are insisting on filibustering a bill that raises or suspends the debt ceiling. Neither Schumer nor House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) have said what their back-up plan is for increasing the debt ceiling or funding the government. Congress has until the end of Thursday to prevent a government shutdown that would start on Friday. Meanwhile, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen warned congressional leaders on Tuesday that they will need to raise the debt ceiling by Oct. 18.
Cruz says GOP will block Schumer from bypassing filibuster on debt hike -Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) said on Tuesday that Republicans will block an attempt by Senate Majority Leader Charles Schumer (D-N.Y.) to bypass the filibuster on the debt ceiling. “There is no universe in which I am going to consent to lower the the threshold and make it easier for him to do so. He’s playing games. ... The games aren’t going to work,” Cruz said. Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wis.) also said that he would “absolutely” object. “That’s helping them raise the debt ceiling,” Johnson said about whether Republicans would let Democrats set the vote at a simple majority. The conservative pushback comes after Schumer announced that he would try to get consent to set up a vote that would allow them to raise the debt ceiling by a simple majority vote. "I will ask unanimous consent for the Senate to hold a vote to increase the debt limit at a majority threshold. ... It would be very similar to the process that Leader [Mitch] McConnell cited yesterday favorably which allowed for the debt limit to be increased without the minority party providing any of the votes needed to do so," Schumer said. But any one Republican will be able to object to Schumer’s request and force Democrats to hit the higher threshold of needing 60 votes, including the support of at least 10 GOP senators. Republicans are trying to force Democrats to raise the debt ceiling as part of a sweeping spending bill that they are passing under reconciliation, a process that lets them bypass the filibuster. Unlike if Republicans allowed Schumer’s request, raising the debt ceiling under reconciliation requires Democrats to specify a number for their debt hike. Republicans filibustered on Monday night a bill that would fund the government through Dec. 3 and suspend the debt ceiling through 2022. McConnell, on Monday, noted that Democrats had voted against a debt ceiling increase in the 2000s when Republicans had a unified government. But Democrats at the time didn’t filibuster allowing Republicans to bypass needing 60 votes. "When Republicans had unified control in the early 2000's, then-senators Biden and Schumer voted no on a debt limit increase and made the party in power handle it on their own," McConnell said.
McConnell blocks Schumer attempt to bypass filibuster on debt hike -Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (Ky.) blocked an effort by Senate Majority Leader Charles Schumer (D-N.Y.) to bypass the 60-vote legislative filibuster on a debt ceiling hike. Schumer tried to get an agreement to set up a simple-majority vote on a bill to suspend the nation's borrowing limit, which would bypass the filibuster and let Democrats raise it without GOP support. "Simply allow for a simple-majority threshold to raise the debt ceiling and avoid this needless catastrophe that Republicans have steered us toward," Schumer said. "We're just asking Republicans to get out of the way. Get out of the way, when you are risking the full faith and credit of the United States to play a nasty political game," he added. Under the Senate's rules, any one senator can try to set up a vote, but any one senator can also object and block that request. McConnell shut down Schumer's request, arguing that Republicans wouldn't help Democrats raise the debt ceiling outside of reconciliation, the budget process Democrats are using to try to pass a sweeping social spending bill. "Democrats will not get bipartisan help borrowing money so they can immediately blow historic sums on a partisan taxing and spending spree. The Democratic leader knew this request would fail," McConnell said. "There is no chance, no chance the Republican conference will go out of our way to help Democrats conserve their time and energy so they can resume ramming through partisan socialism as fast as possible," McConnell added. The back-and-forth on the Senate floor comes as lawmakers are at a stalemate over how to raise the debt ceiling. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen warned that they will need to raise the debt ceiling by Oct. 18 or risk a default. Schumer said earlier Tuesday that he would try to get an agreement, pointing out that McConnell, during his own floor speeches, had noted Republicans had voted to raise the debt ceiling during the George W. Bush administration without Democratic support. But at the time Democrats hadn't filibustered the bill, allowing Republicans to pass it by a simple majority. Conservatives, including Sens. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) and Ron Johnson (R-Wis.), immediately pledged that Republicans would block the move. Republicans are trying to force Democrats to raise the debt ceiling as part of a sweeping spending bill that they are passing under reconciliation, a budget process that lets them avoid the filibuster. But under reconciliation, Democrats couldn't just suspend the debt ceiling but would instead have to agree to a specific number to raise the nation's borrowing limit to, a move that would likely be used against them in 2022 by Republicans.
Yellen Warns of ‘Catastrophic’ Consequences From Debt Limit Breach - The Treasury secretary, testifying alongside Jerome H. Powell, the Federal Reserve chair, implored Congress to raise or suspend the nation’s borrowing cap before an Oct. 18 deadline. Treasury Secretary Janet L. Yellen warned lawmakers on Tuesday of “catastrophic” consequences if Congress failed to raise or suspend the statutory debt limit in less than three weeks, saying inaction could lead to a self-inflicted economic recession and a financial crisis. At a Senate Banking Committee hearing where she testified alongside the Federal Reserve chair, Jerome H. Powell, Ms. Yellen laid out in explicit terms what she expects to happen if Congress does not deal with the debt limit before Oct. 18, which the Treasury now believes is when the United States will actually face default. In her most public expression of alarm about the matter, she described the standoff within Congress as a self-inflicted wound of enormous proportions. Her warnings came as the stock market suffered its worst day since May, as investors fretted over a cocktail of concerns, including the potential for the government to shut down and default on its debt, persistent inflation, the Delta variant and the Fed’s plans to soon withdraw some economic support. The S&P 500 fell 2 percent and yields on government bonds spiked to their highest level since June, reflecting expectations that the Fed will begin to slow its bond purchases as prices rise and the economy heals. Congress was scrambling to figure out how to resolve its two immediate problems: funding the government past Thursday and raising the debt limit so that the United States can continue borrowing money to pay its bills. … After Senate Republicans on Monday blocked an emergency spending bill that would have funded the government through early December and lifted the debt limit, Democrats huddled privately to discuss their options but have not settled on a solution. Ms. Yellen warned that the effects of inaction would be felt across the economy: Older adults could see their Social Security payments delayed, soldiers would not know when their paychecks were coming and interest rates on credit cards, car loans and mortgages would rise, making payments more costly, she said. And she suggested that a default would jeopardize the dollar’s status as the international reserve currency, which Democrats argue would be a gift to China.
House passes debt ceiling suspension that is doomed in the Senate - The House on Wednesday passed a bill to suspend the U.S. debt ceiling as the country barrels toward a first-ever default with no clear solution in sight. Republicans will sink the plan in the Senate. The GOP has opposed any effort to raise the borrowing limit and appears intent on making Democrats address it as part of their sprawling investment in social programs and climate policy. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has told lawmakers the U.S. will run out of ways to pay its bills around Oct. 18. If Congress fails to suspend or raise the debt limit before the deadline, lawmakers risk a default that could cost millions of jobs, jeopardize government benefits and crash the financial markets. The House passed the debt ceiling suspension in a 219-212 vote. All Democrats except Reps. Jared Golden of Maine and Kurt Schrader of Oregon supported it. Every Republican but Rep. Adam Kinzinger of Illinois opposed it. Earlier, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., wrote that the chamber would "move forward to honor its responsibility to protect the American economy and American families from the catastrophe of a default by passing legislation to suspend the debt limit." But as the bill is set to fail in the Senate, it is unclear how Democrats will proceed to avoid default.
Why October 19 could be a catastrophic day for the US economy - The United States could be just weeks away from defaulting on its debt for the first time ever. The $28.4 trillion debt limit was reinstated August 1. Since then, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has been keeping the nation's finances afloat by using emergency accounting maneuvers. Known as "extraordinary measures," these steps allow the government to borrow additional funds without breaching the debt ceiling.But Yellen warned lawmakers this week that if Congress fails to raise, or suspend, the debt ceiling, the federal government will exhaust those extraordinary measures by October 18. "At that point, we expect Treasury would be left with very limited resources that would be depleted quickly," Yellen wrote in a letter to Congress. "It is uncertain whether we would continue to meet all the nation's commitments after that date."That's an accelerated timing from previously, when Yellen said this would happen at some point in October. This so-called X-date should be viewed as a best guess by Treasury, not a set-in-stone deadline based on exact science. In other words, America could hit the debt ceiling days before, or days after, October 18. There are many, many moving pieces here. Yellen herself warned the X-date "can unpredictably shift forward or backward." And given the stakes — Jamie Dimon has warned a default would cause a "cascading catastrophe of unbelievable proportions and damage America for 100 years" — it would be risky for Congress to get too close to the X-date, let alone beyond it. Of course, Treasury secretaries have a long history of giving themselves wiggle room when announcing an X-date — just in case Congress blows through that date. There is some debate over just how much wiggle room Yellen is giving Congress this time. Yellen was asked at a hearing on Thursday "what happens on October 19" and her response indicates there could be a bit of leeway, but not much. "We're simply in an impossible situation in which it will be impossible for Treasury on that day, or a few days thereafter...We'll have very limited resources," Yellen said. "It will be run down quickly. We won't be able to pay all of the government's bills." However, the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office issued a report Tuesday that suggests there may be additional time beyond October 18 for lawmakers to avoid a catastrophic default. The CBO projects that if the debt limit remains unchanged, Treasury's ability to borrow using extraordinary measures will be exhausted and it will "most likely run out of cash near the end of October or the beginning of November." That's unchanged from CBO's prior estimate in July.
Abolish the debt ceiling before it commits austerity again: The GOP used the debt ceiling to force spending cuts in 2011. It can’t be allowed again. -- EPI Blog, Josh Bivens - In a political system beset by many stupid and destructive institutions, the statutory limit on federal debt might be the worst. The debt limit:
- Measures no coherent economic value. The measure of debt it targets is not inflation-adjusted, would perversely make the debt situation look worse if there was a reform to Social Security that closed that program’s long-run actuarial imbalance, and ignores trillions of dollars in assets held by the federal government.
- Has no relationship to any economic stressor facing the country—over the past 25 years, as the nominal federal debt rose from $5 trillion to $22.7 trillion, debt service payments (required interest payments on debt) shrank almost in half, from 3.0% of GDP to 1.8%.
- Can cause real damage if it’s not lifted in the next couple of weeks. It would only take a couple of months of missing federal payments due to the debt ceiling to mechanically send the economy into recession—and that’s without assessing damage it would cause from financial market fallouts.
- Has been used time and time again to enforce misguided austerity policies. The 2011 Budget Control Act (BCA) grew directly out of a GOP Congress threatening to not raise the debt ceiling absent spending cuts. The BCA provided an anti-stimulus about twice as large as the stimulus provided by the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (ARRA—commonly known as “The Recovery Act”) and is largely responsible for the sluggish recovery from the Great Recession.
Given all of this, the debt ceiling should be abolished or neutralized in absolutely any way politically possible. It serves no good economic purpose and plenty of malign ones. Below we expand on these points.
Carbon Tax Prepped by Democrats as Option to Pay for Biden's Agenda – Bloomberg - Senate Democrats are developing a carbon-tax proposal that could potentially be used to offset some of the costs of a sweeping social-spending bill as well as direct cash payments to households, according to a key lawmaker.“It’s projected that making polluters pay -- when combined with clean energy tax credits -- would lower the cost of clean electricity for Americans,” Senate Finance Committee Chairman Ron Wyden said in a statement to Bloomberg News Friday. “I’ve worked on this for years, and have continued to develop the proposal as part of my menu of options for the caucus.”
Manchin raises red flag on carbon tax --Centrist Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) on Monday raised a red flag over Democratic colleagues’ push to include a carbon tax in the reconciliation package they will need his vote to pass later this year. A plan to tax carbon as a way to combat climate change and raise revenue for the reconciliation package is gaining momentum and some Senate Democrats think that Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (D-Ariz.) is open to the idea after she raised global warming as a key concern during an interview with the Arizona Republic last week. But Manchin, who represents coal-rich West Virginia, is not a fan of the idea. “I just heard about that,” he told reporters Monday when asked about the new push for the carbon tax. “Any type of a tax is going to be passed on to the people." “Now if a tax is going to be beneficial to help something and give us more research and development and innovation and technology, it’s something to look at,” he said. But Manchin said he doesn’t believe that would be the case for the carbon tax under discussion, at least as it’s been explained to him so far. Manchin made a similar argument against a carbon tax in April when he criticized the idea during a virtual conversation with the National Press Club in Washington. He argued at the time that it wouldn’t create significant incentives for the development of new technologies but instead would likely be used to eliminate jobs in fossil-fuel industries.
Carbon tax fight brews among Democrats - Carbon pricing is back in the climate change conversation, but House and Senate Democrats are at odds about the policy as reconciliation talks reach a breaking point. Senate Finance Chair Ron Wyden (D-Ore.) is pushing for what effectively amounts to a carbon fee and dividend system that top Senate Democrats see as one of the most important climate policies under discussion for reconciliation. But the House is less enthusiastic. Having already marked up their vision for a $3.5 trillion spending package, House Democrats say Wyden needs to show them a concrete proposal before they can take the carbon pricing talk seriously. Select Committee on the Climate Crisis Chair Kathy Castor (D-Fla.) said “there really hasn’t been any discussion at all” about carbon pricing on the House side. “I think it’s unlikely at this point,” Castor said. “We had committee markups. All of the options were out there,” Castor added. “We decided, no, the way to go is through tax incentives, a clean energy payment plan and a methane fee.” It’s emerging as another potential hurdle at a critical moment for reconciliation talks. House Democrats are still on a collision course, with progressives reiterating their threats to vote down the bipartisan infrastructure bill tomorrow without a deal on reconciliation. The House caucus, with a few exceptions, appears to be united on the broad contours of climate policy. It’s a point Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) stressed yesterday, holding a media event on climate with a group of rank-and-file members, some from front-line districts. But they appear to have made little headway in negotiations with the Senate, which could only aggravate the political fight over the timing for reconciliation. Democratic leaders said yesterday their first objective was agreeing on a lower top-line number for the reconciliation package, which would then pave the way for finalizing outstanding policy disagreements. “Once we get that top-line number, then we have to look at what that number will fund of the priorities that we have in the House bills that have been set forward by our committees,” House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer (D-Md.) told reporters. Still, it’s increasingly clear that carbon pricing — and a list of other climate policies — will be an issue for talks with the Senate if and when Democrats can settle on the top line.
Pelosi says it would be a 'dereliction of duty' if infrastructure goes in 'wrong direction' on climate - House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) on Tuesday emphasized the importance of tackling climate change through infrastructure legislation as she seeks to move both a bipartisan bill and a more climate-intensive Democrat-only measure. Her comments come amid uncertainty as to whether the Senate will pass the more climate-heavy bill that she’s trying to move alongside the bipartisan one — and as progressive threaten to torpedo a planned Thursday vote on the bipartisan bill. But in new comments, Pelosi and other Democrats reiterated commitment to addressing climate change, saying it would be a “dereliction of duty” to take things in the “wrong direction.” “It’s a moral issue to pass the planet on to future generations in a responsible way, so in my view,... it would be a dereliction of duty to build infrastructure that takes us in the wrong direction instead of the positive direction,” she said during a press conference. A group of progressive Democrats have threatened to vote against the Senate-passed bipartisan bill while the upper chamber still debates the Democrats’ $3.5 trillion package, which is expected to have the bulk of climate investments — including clean energy tax credits, a methane pollution fee for oil and gas and a program that would pay utilities to switch to cleaner energy sources. For some lawmakers, particularly in the Senate, clean energy provisions are among the sticking points. The program for utilities, called a Clean Electricity Performance Program, has met particular opposition from Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) with the crucial swing vote telling CNN that it “makes no sense.” But, during and after Tuesday's press conference, Democrats expressed some optimism that the party would be able to get its agenda across the finish line. “I've heard a little bit of skepticism but I haven't heard any line drawing or anything like that,” Rep. Kathy Castor (D-Fla.) told reporters after the press conference when asked about the performance program. “This is hopefully what they're talking about at the White House.” Castor, who chairs the House’s Select Committee on the Climate Crisis, meanwhile, expressed skepticism that a separate carbon price mechanism would make it into the House legislation. “Many of the senators have been advocates of a carbon tax and it’s not surprising that they would raise it again, but I think it’s unlikely at this point,” she said. “Over on the House side we had...committee markups. All of those options were out there; we decided no, the way to go is through tax incentives, a clean energy payment plan and a methane fee,” she added.
‘Senior Democrats’ push for powerful climate tool collides with political realities - Senior Democrats are trying to craft a proposal to tax carbon — a potentially powerful weapon against climate change — that would not violate President Biden’s pledge to spare middle-class Americans from tax hikes. Top Senate Democrats have in recent days studied a tax of $15 per ton on oil and gas producers that they think could raise between $700 billion and $900 billion in new tax revenue, according to two aides familiar with the matter, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because the measure is not yet finalized. The funding could then be used to either help pay for Democrats’ $3.5 trillion economic spending package, or sent back to consumers in the form of rebates to compensate for higher prices, the people said. But some centrist and even liberal Senate Democrats have warned their colleagues that this proposal could disproportionately hurt middle America and spark a political backlash. It is also unclear whether the carbon tax proposal can be crafted in a way that does not run afoul of Biden’s pledge to shield Americans earning under $400,000 from new taxes. The impasse illustrates how difficult it is for lawmakers to agree on getting Americans to pay for climate pollution. Though polls show that Americans increasingly favor climate action to curb fossil fuel emissions that are warming the planet, their reluctance to pay higher gasoline taxes or electricity rates are making it harder for Biden to deliver on a central promise of his presidency. )Allies of the administration in Congress have proposed a rebate that would return some of the revenue raised by a carbon tax to low-income Americans, but even that plan faces resistance. Skeptics point out that both foreign countries and U.S. states that have tried implementing similar versions of a carbon tax have faced political firestorms over the matter.“Every economist in the world loves a carbon tax — it is a great way to raise revenue while doing something about climate change,” said Howard Gleckman, a senior fellow at the Tax Policy Center, a nonpartisan think tank. “But hardly any politicians in America want to do it. People hate paying more at the pump for gasoline, and the White House from the very beginning has made clear it does not want to own that.”
Climate plans in flux as Democrats eye reconciliation deal - House Democratic leaders continued to project outward confidence last night they’ll be able to reach an agreement with the Senate by Thursday on a massive spending package, despite a litany of outstanding policy differences related to climate and continued clashes over the current $3.5 trillion top-line number. In a closed-door caucus meeting, however, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) delivered a sobering reality check: They may not meet the deadline to close the deal, which progressives say they need in order to shore up the votes to pass a separate $1 trillion bipartisan infrastructure measure. Democrats, Pelosi said, must be prepared for that possibility, blaming the standoff over the existing price tag as the reason why negotiations have been moving slower than anticipated. “House and Senate Democrats — we are completely in sync: we are going to have the same bill. We are not going to pass a bill … that won’t pass the Senate,” she told members, according to a source familiar with her remarks. “And that’s why we have to come up with a number. But we’re not there yet.” Pelosi is holding out hope for some sort of breakthrough in the coming days that she can show progressives: some framework to assure them a vote on reconciliation is close. But it’s still unclear whether progressive House Democrats would agree to vote on any reconciliation bill that isn’t first passed by the Senate — a timetable that won’t be possible this week given procedural and logical constraints. “It would be tough,” Congressional Progressive Caucus Chair Pramila Jayapal (D-Wash.) said last night, while continuing to argue that House action on a Senate-passed bill would be the only way to ensure progressive interests are protected through the legislative process. “If we don’t have an actual bill that is completely agreed upon and voted on [by the Senate], then any number of things could happen,” she explained. “People could argue about some small provision for another five months and hold it up.” Pelosi and her allies are banking on other progressives taking a weaker line or at least being able to convince them to soften their demands. Rep. Ilhan Omar (D-Minn.), the whip for the Progressive Caucus, told reporters she wants to see a deal struck on reconciliation before voting on the bipartisan bill but left the door open for the House to vote first on that agreement. Rep. Jared Huffman (D-Calif.), chair of the House Natural Resources Subcommittee on Water, Oceans and Wildlife, agreed: “I don’t think it has to be bill text, but it’s got to be something very clear and public and specific.” Meanwhile, many Democrats emerged from the caucus meeting yesterday prepared to take Pelosi at her word that although there are no guarantees, conversations with the Senate are going well.
Pelosi sets Thursday vote on infrastructure, eyes smaller social bill (AP) — With President Joe Biden’s broad domestic agenda at risk of collapse, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi on Sunday vowed that Democrats will pass a bipartisan infrastructure bill this week and push ahead on the bigger $3.5 trillion social safety net and climate change bill while acknowledging the total amount will drop. Pelosi had originally pledged to House moderates a vote on the infrastructure legislation by Monday, but she now says that timeline will likely fall to later in the week due to Democratic divisions, giving space for negotiations so both bills could be approved. She is pushing to advance both this week, though that is not at all certain. The $1 trillion infrastructure plan passed the Senate last month. “Let me just say that we’re going to pass the bill this week,” said Pelosi, D-Calif. “I’m never bringing a bill to the floor that doesn’t have the votes. You cannot choose the date. You have to go when you have the votes in a reasonable time, and we will.” When asked Sunday if Pelosi had the votes to pass the $1 trillion infrastructure bill on Monday, Biden told reporters at the White House, “It’s going to take the better part of this week.” Still, in a delicate balancing act aimed at achieving the near Democratic unanimity needed to push the sprawling package through, Pelosi made clear that Biden’s proposed $3.5 trillion for social spending and climate initiatives will need to be trimmed. Sens. Joe Manchin of West Virginia and Kyrsten Sinema of Arizona have said they won’t support a bill of that size. Manchin has previously proposed spending of $1 trillion to $1.5 trillion, an amount that progressives have called unacceptable for a bill they originally envisioned at $6 trillion. Asked Sunday if she agrees the final number on the so-called reconciliation bill will be “somewhat smaller” than $3.5 trillion, Pelosi responded: “That seems self-evident.” “We’ll see how the number comes down and what we need,” she added. “Again, the Senate and the House, those who are not in full agreement with the president, right, let’s see what our values — let’s not talk about numbers and dollars. Let’s talk about values.” “I think even those who want a smaller number, support the vision of the president, and this is really transformative.” Her comments Sunday reflected the enormous stakes for the coming week, one that could define the Biden presidency and shape the political contours of next year’s midterm elections. Pelosi told fellow Democrats over the weekend that they “must” pass the social and environment package in the coming days, along with a separate infrastructure bill and a third measure preventing a government shutdown on Friday. Her letter to colleagues underscored the sense of urgency.
Pelosi says Biden's infrastructure bill can't wait for social safety net bill — House Speaker Nancy Pelosi told Democrats on Monday that passage of the $550 billion infrastructure bill must not wait for President Joe Biden's multitrillion-dollar safety net bill, saying the larger package is not yet ready for a vote. In a private caucus meeting, Pelosi, D-Calif., said the party must "make difficult choices," because the dynamics have changed and Democrats have not yet agreed to a spending level, according to a source familiar with the meeting. "I told all of you that we wouldn't go on to the [infrastructure bill until] we had the reconciliation bill passed by the Senate. We were right on schedule to do all of that, until 10 days ago, a week ago, when I heard the news that this number had to come down," Pelosi said, according to the source. "It all changed, so our approach had to change. "We had to accommodate the changes that were being necessitated. And we cannot be ready to say until the Senate passed the bill we can't do BIF," she said, using a shorthand for Bipartisan Infrastructure Framework, the source said. The remarks represent a significant reversal for Pelosi, who vowed in June that the House "ain't" going to vote on the infrastructure bill until the mega-bill has passed the Senate. The development indicates that the vote on the Senate-passed infrastructure bill is likely to happen in the House on Thursday, whether or not there is a deal on the separate bill by then, which progressives have demanded to win their votes for it. But it is not clear that the infrastructure bill can pass the House, even if Pelosi calls the vote. Progressive House Democrats have threatened to vote down the infrastructure bill if the vote is held Thursday before the mega-bill is completed, fearing that centrist Democrats would seek to shrink or kill the larger bill if the bipartisan infrastructure measure passes.
Sanders urges House Democrats to vote against infrastructure bill before reconciliation - Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) on Tuesday urged House Democrats to vote against the bipartisan infrastructure bill until Congress approves the party’s reconciliation package, heightening the standoff between moderates and progressives as key components of President Biden’s legislative agenda hang in the balance.Sanders, in a series of tweets posted on Tuesday, said the passage of the bipartisan infrastructure bill on Thursday without the reconciliation package would be “in violation of an agreement that was reached within the Democratic Caucus in Congress.”He also said such a move would “end all leverage that we have to pass a major reconciliation bill.”Sanders in August voted in favor of the bipartisan infrastructure bill, which passed 69 to 30 with bipartisan support.Sanders’s strong comments come after House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) on Monday, during a private caucus meeting, told her Democratic colleagues that a vote on the passage of the Senate-approved bipartisan infrastructure bill cannot wait for the party’s multi-trillion dollar reconciliation package, which is still being negotiated among lawmakers, according to NBC News.She conceded that the final reconciliation package would not be ready by Thursday — when the House is set to vote on the bipartisan infrastructure bill — despite previous promises that the two crucial pieces of legislation would be passed together.She specifically said the Senate’s demand that the price tag of the $3.5 trillion package “had to come down” threw the timing in question. Moderates, namely Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.), have said the figure is too high, while progressives are firm in wanting the top line to stay where it is. The prospect of the bipartisan infrastructure bill passing without the reconciliation package is angering progressives, who fear that moderate members will renege on their commitment to passing the larger package once the infrastructure bill is approved. A group of 11 Democratic senators — including Sanders, who is the chairman of the Senate Budget Committee — issued a statement last week calling on party leadership to stick with its original “dual track” planand pass the reconciliation package in both chambers before voting on the bipartisan infrastructure bill in the House. They said they backed the infrastructure package in a vote last month with “the clear commitment” that the deal would proceed alongside the reconciliation package, adding that passing the smaller bill without the larger one "would be in violation of that agreement."
Progressives threaten rebellion as Pelosi pushes forward on infrastructure - -Progressive leaders on Tuesday declared that a majority of their 100-member caucus still plans to tank President Joe Biden’s infrastructure bill this week without a firm commitment that party leaders can finish another huge agenda item. And time is running out before that vote.Liberal Democrats in the House are demanding details about what the Senate’s most vocal centrists will support, ratcheting up the pressure on Biden for a pair of high-stakes meetings with Sens. Joe Manchin of West Virginia and Kyrsten Sinema of Arizona on Tuesday. Without more clarification, Congressional Progressive Caucus Chair Pramila Jayapal said most of her members still plan to oppose Thursday's infrastructure vote.“As our members have made clear for three months, the two are integrally tied together, and we will only vote for the infrastructure bill after passing the reconciliation bill,” Jayapal said in a statement, capping an hourlong meeting of progressive members.With just two days left for Speaker Nancy Pelosi to lock down votes on the infrastructure bill, Biden’s sitdown with Manchin and Sinema could be pivotal. While Sinema has been engaging with a group of House lawmakers behind the scenes, Manchin has been largely mum about his support for the party’s sprawling bill with a price tag of up to $3.5 trillion. Sinema will head to the White House for a second meeting later Tuesday. And many progressives in the caucus say they’ll refuse to move forward until those two senators spell out their position in some formalized way with Pelosi and Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer. If not, they fear Manchin and Sinema will ditch the broader spending talks as soon as the public works bill is complete.
Left warns Pelosi they'll take down Biden infrastructure bill -Liberals on Tuesday sent a stern warning to Democratic leaders that a bipartisan infrastructure bill cannot pass through the House as long as Senate centrists remain non-committal on the larger social benefits package at the heart of President Biden's agenda. "If she were to call the bill, it will fail," Rep. Jan Schakowsky (D-Ill.), a close ally of Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.), said leaving a closed-door Democratic Caucus meeting. "Not because the Progressive Caucus, people like me, aren't willing to vote for it. But ... we had an agreement that we were going to get these two pieces [together]." The warning is just the latest challenge facing Pelosi and other party leaders, who have scheduled a Thursday vote on the $1.2 trillion public works proposal, which passed through the Senate last month. That timeline reflects Pelosi's promise to moderate House Democrats, who have sought to divorce the bipartisan infrastructure bill from the larger and more controversial "family" benefits package. Schakowsky noted that Pelosi, a master vote counter, has built a reputation for never bringing bills to the floor without knowing for certain they will pass — a stipulation the Speaker has repeatedly said also applies to the infrastructure bill. And for that reason, "it was not entirely clear" if leaders intend to push through with their plan to bring it to the floor on Thursday, Schakowsky said. "I've never seen her bring a bill to the floor that's going to fail,” she said. “It will fail if she does.” The warning is the latest evidence that key progressives are sticking with their long-held insistence that centrist Sens. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) and Kyrsten Sinema (D-Ariz.) first commit to supporting the larger social spending package before the liberals vote in favor of the more popular public works bill. And they have the numbers, they say, to sink it. In a brief interview with The Hill, Pelosi downplayed the threat from Schakowsky and other progressives: “We don’t even know where we are until we see where we come down on our agreement, so there's no use speculating on what may or may not happen … “I appreciate Jan Schakowsky,” the Speaker added. Rep. Rashida Tlaib (D-Mich.), a member of the so-called “Squad” of progressive lawmakers of color, was harsher. She called Pelosi’s decision to reverse course and decouple the two bills a “betrayal.” “Let me be clear: bringing the so-called bipartisan infrastructure plan to a vote without the #BuildBackBetter Act at the same time is a betrayal. We will hold the line and vote it down,” Tlaib vowed on Twitter. “This is not the time for half measures or to go back on our promises.” Rep. Jim McGovern (D-Mass.), chairman of the powerful Rules Committee, is also seeking greater certainty surrounding the intentions of the Senate centrists. “Look, I want to be a good guy. My father told me when I was growing up there’s a fine line between being a good guy and a goddamn fool. I don’t want to be rolled,” he said. “And I think a lot of us want to make sure that we have an assurance that, in fact, there’s going to be a reconciliation bill.”
Sanders, Manchin, Sinema fight proxy war in the House - The fight between Senate Budget Committee Chairman Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) and centrist Sens. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) and Kyrsten Sinema (D-Ariz.) over the shape and size of a massive spending and tax reform bill is playing out in proxy battles between their liberal and moderate allies in the House. For months, Sanders and Manchin — along with Sinema — have been at opposite sides of the internal Democratic debate over the size of the prospective reconciliation package and what it should include. All three are now reaching out to their progressive and centrist allies, respectively, to bolster their negotiating positions. Sanders initially floated a $6 trillion target for the reconciliation bill, a spending goal that eventually got whittled down to $3.5 trillion in the budget resolution that passed both the Senate and House. More recently, Democrats say the top-line spending number for the reconciliation bill is likely to fall below $3.5 trillion because of opposition from Manchin and Sinema, who say it’s more than they are willing to support. Manchin on Wednesday reiterated his opposition to spending what Sanders wants by releasing a statement saying “I can’t support $3.5 trillion more in spending when we have already spent $5.4 trillion since last March.” “At some point, all of us, regardless of party, must ask the simple question — how much is enough?” he said. Sanders, however, isn’t giving up easily. He told reporters this week that the reconciliation bill should spend $3.5 trillion “at a minimum.” On Wednesday he immediately pushed back on Manchin’s argument by pointing out that Democrats could raise enough revenue from increasing taxes on the wealthy to pay for new social spending. “If Mr. Manchin is concerned about the deficit — I think we all are, national debt — I’m sure he understands that this bill is not going add one nickel to the deficit because it’s all going to be paid for by demanding the wealthy and large corporations starting to pay their fair share of taxes,” Sanders said Wednesday afternoon. Sanders has reached out to progressive allies to bolster his leverage with his moderate Democratic colleagues. Sanders held a conference call with House progressives on Tuesday to urge them to defeat the $1 trillion bipartisan infrastructure bill, which Manchin and Sinema spent months crafting. “There was an agreement in terms of a dual track and that I’m not happy to see that agreement reneged on, and second of all that we’ll lose our leverage in passing a strong reconciliation bill here if they were to pass the infrastructure bill,” Sanders said Wednesday, recounting his conversation with House progressives. Sanders and other progressive Democratic senators believe their House allies will hold firm and stop the bipartisan infrastructure package from passing this week. “They will not pass it on Thursday. Enough of the House members understand that they would be gutting the Build Back Better agenda,” said a Democratic lawmaker familiar with the internal discussions. The senator predicted that without a framework agreement between the White House, Manchin and Sinema on the top-line spending number for the reconciliation package, as many as two dozen progressives would not vote for the bipartisan infrastructure bill, which Sinema and Manchin took the lead in negotiating earlier this year. Rep. Pramila Jayapal (D-Wash.), the chairwoman of the Congressional Progressive Caucus, told reporters Wednesday that progressives would stay unified in opposition to the $1 trillion infrastructure bill unless there’s a breakthrough with Senate moderates in the talks over the reconciliation package. “We already put out our vision and we’re going to stick to that vision,” she said. Manchin and Sinema have also reached out to colleagues to help improve their negotiating position with liberals. They urged House moderates in August to pressure Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) to schedule a quick vote on the bipartisan infrastructure package, even though Pelosi previously pledged to hold the bill until the larger reconciliation package containing President Biden’s human infrastructure agenda was ready to move.
Manchin, Sinema to meet with Biden in talks to trim $3.5 trillion bill (AP) Two key Democratic senators are expected to meet Tuesday with President Joe Biden at the White House as the party works to narrow his $3.5 trillion legislative package and momentum builds to close the deal with centrist and progressive lawmakers. Sens. Joe Manchin D-W.Va., and Sen. Kyrsten Sinema, D-Ariz., are linchpins for the final package — two centrist lawmakers who have balked at the price tag and are now under pressure to show Biden what amount they could live with. Biden is expected to meet separately with Manchin and Sinema as he works to come up with a final number, according to a person familiar with the meetings and granted anonymity to discuss them. “In the next day or so we hope to come to a place where we can all move forward on that,” House Speaker Nancy Pelosi told reporters Tuesday at the Capitol. Pelosi said she had yet to hear a new topline figure from Manchin or Sinema, but indicated that she expects talks to start moving swiftly toward a conclusion that would enable passage of Biden’s package as well as a companion $1 trillion public works bill. “We have to see what comes of the negotiations that are going on — if they are worthy of the commitments we have made,” she said. “We will pass both bills.” The behind-the-scenes talks come as Republican senators blocked a bill Monday to keep the government operating and allow federal borrowing. Democrats aiming to avert a shutdown pledged to try again — at the same time pressing ahead on Biden’s big plans to reshape government. The efforts are not necessarily linked, but the fiscal yearend deadline to fund the government past Thursday is bumping up against the Democrats’ desire to make progress on Biden’s expansive $3.5 trillion social spending and climate legislation.
Arizona Democratic Party passes resolution criticizing Sinema on filibuster, reconciliation -The Arizona state Democratic Party overwhelmingly passed a resolution on Saturday that criticizes Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (D-Ariz.) for her opposition to eliminating the filibuster to pass legislation key to the party and for her stance on Democrats' $3.5 trillion reconciliation bill.The resolution passed in the committee in a 415-99 vote, according to Progress Arizona, an organization that advocates for progressives in the state.The measure warned Sinema that the state party will "closely watch" her upcoming votes, and if she does not vote for the massive Democratic budget reconciliation package, it will "go officially on record" and "give Senate Sinema a vote of NO CONFIDENCE." The Arizona Democratic Party also called on Sinema to support ending the filibuster to allow the passage of voting rights legislation, including the For the People Act and the John Lewis Voting Rights Advancement Act. They urged her to nix the filibuster to help pass other "urgent legislation," including the Protecting the Right to Organize Act, commonly referred to as the PRO Act.
Dem support erodes for bipartisan infrastructure bill - House Democrats enter the day on a collision course that leaves much of President Biden’s energy and environmental agenda hanging in the balance. As of last night, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) said the plan was to move forward on a vote today on the Senate’s bipartisan infrastructure bill. But it looks likely to fail or to be delayed, as progressives say they will withhold support while reconciliation talks drag on. It’s a situation that leaves both the bipartisan bill and Democrats’ $3.5 trillion social spending package, which together would be the most expansive package of climate policies ever to pass Congress, on shaky ground. Support among House Democrats for proceeding with the scaled-back, $1 trillion infrastructure measure in the absence of a reconciliation deal was rapidly eroding yesterday. Beyond the majority of members of the Congressional Progressive Caucus who said they would not vote for the bipartisan bill without the text of a reconciliation measure to go alongside it, the defection of Rep. Paul Tonko of New York — a mainstream Democrat who has been advocating for a Clean Electricity Performance Program, or CEPP — underscored the scope of party opposition to leadership’s reversal of a prior commitment to advance both bills simultaneously. “Throughout my entire career, I have been working towards and preparing for the opportunity to enact meaningful, transformative climate legislation that delivers for the people,” Tonko said in a statement. “Acting on infrastructure alone without simultaneously reducing climate pollution, including failing to adequately invest in zero-emission transportation options, would exacerbate our current climate issues.” If the vote does go ahead, Democrats can only afford to lose three votes and still pass legislation with their razor-thin majority, and it’s not clear how many Republicans would make up the shortfall. House GOP leaders are whipping hard against the bipartisan package, in large part because they see it as linked to the reconciliation measure they despise — this, despite the fact that there is currently no reconciliation measure to consider. Meanwhile, on the Democratic side of the aisle, House Majority Whip Jim Clyburn (D-S.C.) said last night that he had not yet begun to count votes for the infrastructure bill as members both privately and publicly speculated that today’s schedule was still very much in flux.
Pelosi Hunts for Infrastructure Votes as Democrats Feud - — A bipartisan, $1 trillion infrastructure bill that is a pillar of President Biden’s agenda hung in the balance on Thursday night, as Democrats fought to corral the votes to pass legislation that had become mired in a broader internal battle over the party’s ambitions.Speaker Nancy Pelosi and top members of Mr. Biden’s team worked into the evening at the Capitol in a frenzied effort to strike a deal between feuding factions and move forward on the expansive public works measure, which passed the Senate in August on a wave of bipartisan bonhomie.Centrist Democrats and a handful of House Republican allies remained hopeful that the measure could squeak past a blockade of liberal Democrats, who have pledged to thwart its passage until the Senate approves a $3.5 trillion climate change and social safety net bill.But the divide on that larger bill, between progressives and more conservative Democrats, appeared only to be growing wider and angrier.The House and Senate did pass — and Mr. Biden signed — legislation to fund the government until Dec. 3, with more than $28 billion in disaster relief and $6.3 billion to help relocate refugees from Afghanistan. That at least averted the immediate fiscal threat of a government shutdown, clearing away one item on the Democrats’ must-do list, at least for two months.But a planned Thursday vote on the infrastructure bill — a compromise plan that would invest heavily in the nation’s roads, bridges, highways and climate resiliency projects, delivering billions of dollars in projects to lawmakers’ states and districts — slipped into the night without the majority needed.The measure, which would provide $550 billion in new infrastructure funding, was supposed to burnish Mr. Biden’s bipartisan bona fides. It would devote $65 billion to expand high-speed internet access; $110 billion for roads, bridges and other projects; $25 billion for airports; and the most funding for Amtrak since the passenger rail service was founded in 1971. It would also begin the shift toward electric vehicles with new charging stations and fortifications of the electricity grid that will be necessary to power those cars.But progressive leaders were threatening to vote it down until they saw action on the legislation they really wanted — a far-reaching bill with paid family leave, universal prekindergarten, Medicare expansion and strong measures to combat climate change.That ambitious plan was in peril on Thursday as conservative-leaning Democrats made it clear they could never support a package anywhere near as large as Mr. Biden had proposed. Senator Joe Manchin III of West Virginia told reporters that he wanted a bill that spent no more than $1.5 trillion, less than half the size of the package that Democrats envisioned in their budget blueprint. And he had a blunt message for the House progressives. “I’ve never been a liberal in any way, shape or form,” he said. If they wanted their way, he advised, “elect more liberals.”
Pelosi leaves room to delay infrastructure vote - Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) on Wednesday said the stonewalling by Senate centrists has "completely" disrupted the Democrats' timeline for moving President Biden's domestic agenda, leaving open the possibility that the House will punt once again on an infrastructure vote scheduled for Thursday. Pelosi said she still intends to stage the infrastructure vote on Thursday but acknowledged her power as Speaker to delay it, if need be. "We take it one step at a time," Pelosi told reporters after huddling with members of her caucus in the basement of the Capitol, referring to Thursday's vote. She also repeated her intention to not bring legislation to the floor that does not have the votes for passage. Leaders of the Congressional Progressive Caucus say half the group is prepared to vote against the infrastructure bill unless the larger social spending bill moves in tandem. Pelosi noted that while the House Budget Committee has already approved a blueprint for the larger social spending bill — the second piece of Biden's legislative wish list — the Senate moderates balking at the $3.5 trillion price tag have stalled progress on the broader two-pronged agenda. "In the meantime, there was this 'Oh my god, we can't go to that number,'" Pelosi said, invoking the Senate holdouts. "Well that completely sets off the timetable." Delaying that vote would be sure to infuriate the moderate Democrats who are fighting for immediate approval of the Senate-passed bipartisan infrastructure bill — and won a promise from Pelosi to do it this week. "We're voting Thursday," Rep. Josh Gottheimer (D-N.J.), a co-chair of the bipartisan Problem Solvers Caucus, said Tuesday. An initial Monday vote on infrastructure was already kicked to Thursday when it became clear that there was no House-Senate agreement on the larger social benefits bill, which liberals are demanding before they'll support the infrastructure proposal. Without those assurances, it appears the liberals have the numbers to kill it. Pelosi said Wednesday that she won't move one bill without the other. "We're doing it simultaneously," she said..
House appears poised to pull infrastructure vote amid stubborn stalemate House Democrats appear poised to miss a second vote on a bipartisan infrastructure bill this week, highlighting the stubborn stalemate over the larger social benefits package at the core of President Biden's agenda. Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) has scheduled the infrastructure vote for Thursday, reflecting a promise she’s made to centrist Democrats eager to notch a bipartisan win on an issue that’s eluded Congress for decades. An initial infrastructure vote, scheduled for Monday, had been postponed, and moderates in the House are threatening to revolt if it happens twice. “Obviously, our group will have a lot of trouble with that,” said centrist Rep. Vicente Gonzalez (D-Texas). “And it will be catastrophic.” Yet liberals are lining up to sink the infrastructure proposal, demanding that Democrats in the House, Senate and White House first reach an agreement on the broader “family” benefits package Biden is pushing as part of his two-pronged domestic agenda. Only then, they say, will they back the Senate-passed public works bill. “We already put out our vision, and we're going to stick to that vision,” said Rep. Pramila Jayapal (D-Wash.), head of the influential Congressional Progressive Caucus, which is leading the charge against a standalone vote on the infrastructure bill. The liberal threat has left Pelosi and Democratic leaders confronting two unpleasant scenarios heading into Thursday’s vote: either stick with the plan to bring the infrastructure bill to the floor, where liberals are likely to kill it, or delay it again, and infuriate the moderates. “If she brings it up, it won’t pass,” said one liberal Democrat, who is supporting the infrastructure bill. Only seven House Republicans have publicly indicated they will back the bipartisan bill, according to The Hill’s whip list. That puts the onus on Democrats to overcome their internal divisions or else delay the vote again. Seeking to placate all sides, Pelosi on Wednesday said that Thursday’s vote is still on — a message quickly hailed by her moderate wing. But she also laid out several parameters that appeared highly unlikely to be met in such a short window of time. First, she said the infrastructure and family packages must move “simultaneously” — the same criterion the liberals have demanded. And second, she stipulated that the legislative text of the larger package must be finalized before the House will act on either bill. “We come to a place where we have agreement in legislative language — not just principle, in legislative language — that the president supports,” she said. “It has to be his standard.” The notion of drafting a bill so quickly appeared to be out of reach on Wednesday afternoon, especially given that there’s still no agreement on even the top-line number. And the idea was quickly panned by Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.), one of two centrist holdouts in the upper chamber. “That won't happen,” Manchin said bluntly in response to Pelosi’s remarks. Additionally, Pelosi has vowed never to bring a bill to the floor without knowing it will pass — a promise she’s extended to the infrastructure vote. And a number of Democrats predicted she’ll stick to it. “We won’t bring anything up that fails,” said another Democratic lawmaker, a close Pelosi ally. For now, Democratic leaders still say they’re planning to muscle ahead with Thursday’s vote. “I expect an infrastructure vote tomorrow,” said House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer (D-Md.). But progressives warn that the votes simply aren’t there right now. Pelosi set the Thursday date on the bipartisan infrastructure bill since it coincides with the expiration of some surface transportation programs. Congress also must send a spending bill to Biden by Thursday to avert a government shutdown when the current fiscal year ends. House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee Chairman Peter DeFazio (D-Ore.) said that lawmakers may have to pass a short-term extension of transportation programs if the bipartisan bill doesn’t pass on Thursday. “One way or another, we will take care of it,” DeFazio said. “We will have a Plan B if we need a Plan B. Right now, I'm not intending to have a Plan B.” “The only reason we're in this situation is that there's this artificial idea that we needed to vote on one bill before another,” said Rep. Andy Levin (D-Mich.), a member of the Congressional Progressive Caucus, who called the impasse “a self-made problem.” “There's a deadline when the government will run out of money. That's real, right?” Levin said. “According to the secretary of the Treasury, there's a moment when the full faith and credit of the United States will stop being good. There's not a moment that if we don't pass the bipartisan infrastructure bill that some horrible thing is gonna happen.”
House infrastructure vote on schedule for Thursday, Pelosi says- House Speaker Nancy Pelosi said the House was still on track to hold a vote on a bipartisan infrastructure bill Thursday, even as members of her own Democratic caucus said she did not yet have the support of enough progressives to pass the bill. "We're on a path to have something, that I can say to my colleagues with integrity and certainty is the path we're on" Pelosi told reporters. But she added, "And in terms of timing and the rest, I wish we had more time." Pelosi and President Joe Biden have tried to win support for the infrastructure bill among progressives, who say they will not vote for it unless the House is also ready to pass a sweeping budget reconciliation bill to expand the social safety net and climate policy. But fundamental parts of that bill are still being debated in the Senate. House progressives are worried that if they vote to pass an infrastructure bill championed by moderates, they will lose any leverage they have in pushing these same moderates to back a transformative budget bill later on. Progressives insist that any budget reconciliation bill be at least $3 trillion, and include provisions like free pre-school and community college, child care subsidies and an expansion of Medicare to cover dental, vision and hearing care. But on Thursday, centrist Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin released a signed agreement he reached with Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, more than two months ago, in July, that spells out what Manchin would support in a budget bill. The maximum topline spending that Manchin would vote for is $1.5 trillion. This leaves both House and Senate progressives and Manchin more than $1 trillion apart. Even some of Pelosi's closest allies in House leadership are pessimistic about the bipartisan infrastructure bill's chances. While Pelosi was speaking to reporters in the Capitol, another journalist asked Majority Leader Steny Hoyer, her deputy, what he thought the odds were of passage. "Are you confident it will pass?" "Nope," Hoyer replied. Many on Capitol Hill are still betting that Pelosi can nail down the votes, however. Her ability to find consensus within an often fractious Democratic caucus is legendary, and she appeared to relish the high stakes and ticking clock Thursday. "As we come to the end, let me just tell you about negotiating at the end," she told the reporters. "That's when you really have to weigh in. You cannot tire. You cannot concede. This is the fun part."
Flood Insurance Program Expires Tomorrow Unless Congress Acts -As Democrats and Republicans in Washington continue to haggle over government debt and spending, federal flood insurance is among the programs facing disruption. Without renewed funding, a government shutdown would begin after the end of the fiscal year tomorrow, Sept. 30, and authorization for the National Flood Insurance Program would expire then. If the NFIP is not reauthorized, NFIP claims for existing policies would still be paid, but the agency could not sell any new policies or renew existing ones. The fate of implementation of a new flood insurance rating plan is unknown at this time. There is a proposal to extend short-term funding to the government including the NFIP through Dec. 3 but its fate is uncertain. Democrats have been trying to prevent a government shutdown and avoid a debt default, but Republicans have been blocking their moves to raise the federal debt limit. The U.S. Treasury said it could run out of money to pay the government’s obligations within weeks if the limit is not raised. Democrats have also been trying to advance President Joe Biden’s $4 trillion agenda. “The looming expiration of the National Flood Insurance Program is yet another example of how the dysfunction in Washington can hurt Americans,” said Jimi Grande, senior vice president of federal and political affairs, National Association of Mutual Insurance Companies. This is not the first time the flood program has been caught up in fiscal politics. Grande noted that Congress has had years to extend the NFIP for a long term, but has only managed to pass short term extensions—16 of them since 2017. “Whatever their other arguments, Congress needs to do its job and ensure millions of Americans can continue to protect themselves from flooding,” Grande said. “A lapse in the program will jeopardize thousands of home closings, renewals and coverages that American at risk of flood sorely need.”
House braces for infrastructure vote that progressive Democrats vow to block -— The House is bracing for a much-anticipated vote on a major infrastructure bill that doesn't appear to have the support it needs to pass. Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., told reporters that she wants it to pass Thursday, but she left wiggle room to delay the vote, saying her members need to be assured the safety net bill will also pass. "Our best interest is served in passing this bill today," Pelosi told reporters at her weekly briefing, adding that "we're making progress." "I think we're in a good place right now," she said. But when House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer, D-Md., was asked if he's confident the bill has the votes to pass later in the day, he told reporters, "Nope." The legislation, which passed the Senate last month, is opposed by scores of progressive Democratic lawmakers, who say they want progress on legislation to bolster the social safety net, called Build Back Better, to come first. "If it happens before the Build Back Better Act, I think it will be voted down. I know it will be voted down," said progressive Rep. Jamaal Bowman, D-N.Y., counting himself among the "no" votes. Rep. Pramila Jayapal, D-Wash., chair of the Congressional Progressive Caucus, has promised that more than half the 95 members of the group will vote against the infrastructure bill if it comes up before the safety net bill. The holdup is the result of a standoff between Democratic moderates, who want to de-link the two measures and pass the $550 billion infrastructure bill quickly, and progressive lawmakers, who are holding it up because they don't trust centrists to support the bigger one without the smaller one. Jayapal said the problem is the Senate, particularly centrist Democrats Kyrsten Sinema of Arizona and Joe Manchin of West Virginia, who haven't said what they support or oppose in the $3.5 trillion House version. "They need to come up with their counteroffer, and then we sit down and negotiate from there," she told reporters Wednesday. In late July, Manchin proposed to Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer a $1.5 trillion topline number for reconciliation, according to a memo published Thursday by Politico. A person familiar with the proposal confirmed the account to NBC News. A spokesman for Schumer said the New York senator "never agreed to any of the conditions Sen. Manchin laid out; he merely acknowledged where Sen. Manchin was on the subject at the time. As the document reads, Sen. Manchin did not rule out voting for a reconciliation bill that exceeded the ideas he outlined, and Leader Schumer made clear that he would work to convince Sen. Manchin to support a final reconciliation bill – as he has doing been for weeks.” Manchin acknowledged to reporters Thursday that his "top line" had been $1.5 trillion, but sidestepped questions about whether the figure was set in stone. "We have a lot of good things we can do," he said. Asked about progressive Democrats' frustration with him, Manchin said they should get more liberals elected to achieve their goals. "I've never been a liberal in any way shape or form," he said..
Pelosi pulls $1.2T infrastructure bill from promised House vote - Facing an embarrassing defeat at the hands of progressives in her party, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) was forced to cancel a vote on a Senate-passed $1.2 trillion bipartisan infrastructure bill Thursday. Democratic leadership failed to garner the support needed for passage after the party’s far-left flank vowed to block the measure until there is movement on a sweeping $3.5 trillion social spending bill. The feud threatens two of President Biden’s top legislative priorities and has so far confounded party leaders, senior congressional staffers, and White House aides who have sought a solution. Pelosi had insisted all week that the infrastructure legislation would come up for a vote Thursday. She had initially promised moderate members of her conference who supported that measure that it would be voted on by Sept. 27, but allowed the deadline to slide as she sought to placate progressives who wanted to vote on the larger bill first. The speaker was confident earlier Thursday that the $1.2 trillion bill would pass on her schedule, despite minimal whipping efforts from House Democratic leaders. “I do not plan on not doing anything,” she told reporters when asked if she would delay the vote. “I plan on moving forward in a positive direction. I’m only envisioning taking it up and winning.” Hours later, the speaker sought to put a positive spin on what she called a “productive and crucial day”. “Discussions continue with the House, Senate and White House to reach a bicameral framework agreement to Build Back Better through a [$3.5 trillion] reconciliation bill,” Pelosi wrote in a so-called “Dear Colleague” letter. “The Bipartisan Infrastructure bill has already had its rule passed and its debate has concluded. All of this momentum brings us closer to shaping the reconciliation bill in a manner that will pass the House and Senate.”
Nancy Pelosi bails on a vote for Biden's bipartisan infrastructure bill as House progressives launch full revolt -- House Speaker Nancy Pelosi of California pulled a vote on President Joe Biden's $550 billion infrastructure bill originally planned for Thursday. It's a major setback for Democrats as moderate and progressive feuds deepened over Biden's domestic agenda.The vote was yanked after it became obvious that House Democratic leaders didn't have enough support to clear the bill and send it to Biden's desk. Despite a three-vote margin of error in the 220-212 chamber, Pelosi had predicted success and tried brushing aside the sizable hurdles before her. "I'm only envisioning taking it up and winning it," she said at a Thursday press conference, adding, "you cannot tire, you cannot concede. This is the fun part."House Democrats were advised that a vote could be rescheduled on Friday. The White House said Congressional Democrats would continue trying to resolve their wide-ranging differences as they negotiated a larger social spending bill capable of drawing support across the party."A great deal of progress has been made this week, and we are closer to an agreement than ever," White House Press Secretary Jen Psaki said in a statement. "But we are not there yet, and so, we will need some additional time to finish the work, starting tomorrow morning first thing."The blow to Biden's agenda comes as progressives launched a full revolt after the California Democrat decoupled the bipartisan infrastructure bill from passage of the larger $3.5 trillion social spending plan earlier this week. The latter measure is aimed at ensuring tuition-free community college, affordable childcare, Medicare and Medicaid expansion, and a renewal of the child allowance among other measures.Pelosi initially linked both bills and insisted they needed to move in tandem through the summer. But on Monday, she told House Democrats that lack of progress on the social spending package meant they had to approve the bipartisan infrastructure bill. She was trying to keep a pledge to House moderates to pass it this week.The last few days of infighting underscore deep divides among Democrats on their spending priorities and the taxes they hope to levy on the wealthiest Americans and large corporations. Complicating matters are their potent but slim majorities in both chambers, affording Biden and Democratic leaders little room to maneuver.Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont had encouraged the brewing resistance in the House. "If there is a vote, I hope it loses," Sanders told Insider on Thursday.Progressive anger escalated after moderate Sen. Joe Manchin of West Virginia issued a statement Thursday assailing the $3.5 trillion social spending plan as "the definition of fiscal insanity." House Progressive Caucus Chair Pramila Jayapal told reporters soon after, as a result, progressives were digging in and around half of her 96-member caucus were prepared to derail the bill.Still, House moderates chiefly led by Rep. Josh Gottheimer of New Jersey insisted the bill would prevail with "1000% certainty." After the vote was pulled, he tweeted "it ain't over yet!"Other moderates were pressing for it to go ahead earlier in the day, even in the face of staunch liberal opposition. "If we let a big piece of the Biden agenda fall down, we can't blame the Republicans," Rep. Henry Cuellar of Texas told Insider. "We control everything so it's important that we have that vote." On Thursday, Manchin said he was seeking a $1.5 trillion social spending plan, less than half the amount that Democrats approved in a budget planin August. He said any sum higher than that could cause the US to slip into an "entitlement-based society."Many Democrats are fed up with Manchin and Sen. Kyrsten Sinema of Arizona. The pair of centrists are pivotal votes in the 50-50 Senate, where Democrats cannot afford a single defection because they're employing a process called reconciliation. It requires only a simple majority vote for Democrats to skirt united GOP opposition, but all 50 Democratic senators must stick together for the gambit to succeed.
Try Us: House Progressives finally flex their power – - For years, progressives have floated the idea of acting as a bloc and using their power to shape the Democratic agenda, a tactic levied by several of the most influential congressional caucuses. On Thursday, they finally did: Progressives stood by a threat they issued this summer, when they promised to vote against the bipartisan infrastructure bill if it was considered in the House without a concurrent vote on a much larger reconciliation bill (which contains a vast investment in social programs and measures to address climate change). Effectively, they argued, the infrastructure bill wouldn’t pass unless a broader $3.5 trillion package did first.By holding their ground and pursuing a course of action that could derail both bills, progressives hope to force moderates in their own party to offer some type of commitment on the reconciliation measure.More than half the members of the 96-person Congressional Progressive Caucus (CPC) maintained their intention to vote down the infrastructure bill on Thursday, thereby guaranteeing its failure. That commitment led House Speaker Nancy Pelosi to delay a planned vote, since Congress still hasn’t agreed on what the reconciliation package should include.This move marks a huge shift in the way the CPC has used its power and what it has asked of its members. Prominent progressives have long argued that if even a subset of the caucus stayed united, it could influence major legislation and make ambitious policy demands — modeling themselves after methods used by groups such as the conservative Freedom Caucus and the moderate Blue Dog Coalition.To get to that point, House progressives have had to think differently about congressional power as well as their own caucus. “It was a really important social club, for people with shared values to come together. But there wasn’t really any infrastructure built to support the organizing work,” CPC Chair Pramila Jayapal told Vox.This thinking has been pushed by a new guard in the progressive caucus as well. “The thing that gives the caucus power is that you can operate as a bloc vote in order to get things done,” Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY) told Jacobin magazine in 2018. Such coordination, though, has often proved elusive for the CPC.Prior to this term, there have been scattered efforts by the group to work as a unit but few actual requirements of its members. Formal whip operations were rare, and the caucus had no rules governing how members needed to vote. This lack of structure coupled with the ideological diversity within the progressive caucus diluted both its cohesion and power.In the last year, however, the caucus has passed new rules requiring members to vote with the bloc in certain situations, including the expectation that members support a position when two-thirds of the caucus agrees on it. This change in strategy has been central to the way progressives have approached infrastructure talks. By acting as a bloc, the caucus has been able to make substantive demands — sometimes in the form of direct threats — and pressure moderate senators like Joe Manchin (D-WV) and Kyrsten Sinema (D-AZ) to bring a concrete reconciliation offer to the table. Thus far, Manchin has said he would support a $1.5 trillion package, while Sinema has yet to publicly draw a red line. (While the number of progressives threatening to vote against the infrastructure bill on Thursday didn’t appear to reach the group’s two-thirds threshold, the bloc is still one of the largest the caucus has been able to rally in recent memory.)
House Centrists Blast Pelosi for Delayed Bipartisan Infrastructure Vote --Democratic Reps. Josh Gottheimer of New Jersey and Stephanie Murphy of Florida, two key centrist lawmakers, criticized House Speaker Nancy Pelosi on Friday for her failure to bring the $1.2 trillion bipartisan infrastructure package to the floor for a vote this week.The two lawmakers lamented that the California Democrat postponed the vote on the package, which easily passed in the Senate in August, due to internal divisons within the party.For months, progressives and Pelosi herself pledged to pass the bipartisan bill and the Democratic-led infrastructure package in tandem, while centrist Democrats have long sought passage of the bipartisan bill untethered to the party's larger bill. Unhappiness among House centrists boiled over after the party couldn't find a way forward on the bipartisan bill, which would inject much-needed funding for transportation projects across the country, with Pelosi emerging as the target. President Joe Biden even came to Capitol Hill on Friday to propel the negotiations and rally support for the infrastructure bills among Democratic lawmakers. Gottheimer laced into the legislative delay, while also calling out "far left" Democrats for the inaction, comparing their actions to the political intransigence practiced by the conservative Freedom Caucus."It's deeply regrettable that Speaker Pelosi breached her firm, public commitment to Members of Congress and the American people to hold a vote and to pass the once-in-a-century bipartisan infrastructure bill on or before September 27," he said in a statement. "Along with a group of Members, I've been working around-the-clock to pass the bipartisan infrastructure bill, legislation we helped craft back in April with my Senate colleagues. But a small far left faction of the House of Representatives undermined that agreement and blocked a critical vote on the President's historic bipartisan infrastructure bill."He added: "We cannot let this small faction on the far left — who employ Freedom Caucus tactics, as described by The New York Times today — destroy the President's agenda and stop the creation of two million jobs a year — including for the millions of hard-working men and women of labor."Murphy, a cochair of the moderate Blue Dog Coalition, also expressed her exasperation at the delayed vote."I am profoundly disappointed and disillusioned by this process,"she said in a statement. "While I have great respect for the Speaker, I believe her decision to again delay a vote on the bipartisan infrastructure bill is wrong. The Speaker pledged that the House would consider this bill on September 27 and that she would rally the votes to ensure the bill has the best chance to pass."She added: "The Speaker delayed the vote because some of my Democratic colleagues, in a misguided effort to gain 'leverage' over their fellow Democrats in the negotiations on the separate Build Back Better Act, have threatened to vote against a very good infrastructure bill. I hope my colleagues will reconsider their approach."In relaying their frustrations, Gottheimer and Murphy are pointing at House progressives, who have rejected the passage of a bipartisan bill without also approving the reconciliation bill, which has been their source of frustration as Democratic Sens. Joe Manchin of West Virginia and Kyrsten Sinema of Arizona refuse to support the projected $3.5 trillion price tag.
DOT furloughs 3,700 workers after House fails to vote on infrastructure bill : NPR --The Department of Transportation says 3,700 of its employees have been temporarily furloughed, after the House of Representatives failed to pass the $1 trillion bipartisan infrastructure bill.Before adjourning Friday, the House passed a temporary extension to fund the federal highway program, but it still has to be voted on by the Senate. That vote is expected to come Saturday afternoon. A department spokesperson said agency officials are taking "every step we can to mitigate the impacts of this temporary lapse in authorization" and are working closely with Congress.The American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials criticized Congress' failure to pass the infrastructure bill in a statement, calling it "unacceptable.""Yesterday's inaction on the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act isn't just disappointing—it lapses our highway, transit, and highway safety programs and halts work on vital transportation infrastructure around the country," Jim Tymon, the organization's executive director, said."We are dealing with very real repercussions," he added. "Thousands of federal employees at USDOT are being furloughed and $50 billion of federal surface transportation programs supported by the Highway Trust Fund are being suspended. This is unacceptable."
Psaki admits Biden likely will not get his full $3.5T spending proposal -White House Press Secretary Jen Psaki acknowledged Friday that President Joe Biden is likely to receive only a portion of his proposed $3.5 trillion spending package, saying "compromise is necessary" and "inevitable." "He understands that he might not get absolutely everything he wants in this package, and others may not get absolutely everything they want in this package, but I'm not going to outline it further from here," Psaki said at a briefing, noting that the White House is attempting to "gather all the views, gather all the voices, figure out what everyone's for, and get both pieces of legislation passed." "What we're working toward is unifying a path to get both of these packages done," Psaki told reporters. "Compromise is necessary, it's inevitable." Discussing ongoing negotiations on Biden's pricey Build Back Better Agenda, Psaki emphasized the "need to work with members in the Senate, to get them to a place where they have a commitment to a clear path forward on this agenda." Asked about a lack of trust in the White House from progressives who are questioning the negotiations between the White House and moderate Democrats like West Virginia Sen. Joe Manchin and Arizona Sen. Kyrsten Sinema, Psaki noted the "diversity of views and opinions" among Democrats and insisted the negotiations and conversations taking place are "healthy." In an attempt to balance a wide-ranging set of viewpoints with multiple Democratic senators, The White House is seemingly becoming more open to the idea of "compromise." If the price tag on the reconciliation bill is lowered, it's not clear that all progressives like Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., will vote for it. Sanders says $3.5 trillion is as low as he wants to go, insisting that he would rather it total $5 trillion. Manchin, on the other hand, wants a lower price, saying he believes the price tag for Democrats' budget reconciliation bill should top out at $1.5 trillion. Psaki also failed to indicate that progress has been made in regard to the negotiations. "As we said in a statement last night, ‘we’re not quite there yet,' we're still working toward it, that remains the case today," Psaki said, noting that Biden will "travel across the country" at least "one day, maybe two" next week to promote the pricey Build Back Better agenda.
Government shutdown: Congress passes bill to avert shutdown ahead of midnight deadline - The House passed a stopgap funding bill on Thursday to avert a shutdown by extending government funding through December 3.The bill passed the Senate earlier in the day with a bipartisan vote, and the measure must now be signed into law by President Joe Biden, which he is expected to do.Government funding is set to expire at midnight, but Democratic congressional leaders, who control both chambers of Congress, have projected confidence there will not be a shutdown.Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer announced Wednesday evening that an agreement had been reached, paving the way for a Thursday vote in the chamber on a continuing resolution, which keeps the government funded at current levels for a set time period."Some good news -- today the Senate will pass a continuing resolution that will eliminate the possibility of a government shutdown tonight," Schumer said in floor remarks Thursday morning. In addition to funding the government until December 3, the stopgap bill will "provide funding to help process and resettle Afghan refugees and finally deliver on critical disaster aid for Americans battered by storms and wildfires this summer," the majority leader said. Congressional Democrats initially attempted to address the government funding issue alongside the debt limit, a strategy that was thwarted by Republicans in the Senate who have insisted that Democrats must act alone on the debt limit.
Congress sends 30-day highway funding patch to Biden after infrastructure stalls - The Senate, in a brief Saturday session, sent a short-term reauthorization of highway programs to President Biden's desk after hopes of a quick vote on a bipartisan infrastructure bill stalled in the House. The Senate passed the 30-day extension of the highway funding after being forced to reconvene on Saturday afternoon because Republicans wouldn’t let the bill clear quickly on Friday night after it passed the House in an 365-51 vote.Lawmakers had hoped to move quickly to get the stop-gap bill to Biden’s desk after they missed an end-of-September deadline to pass a long-term bill to reauthorize funding for highway and transit construction programs.
Dem divisions, Manchin demands highlight climate struggles - Democratic infighting on Capitol Hill this week underscores how difficult it will be to get the biggest climate bill in U.S. history across the finish line.Climate policy has emerged as one of the toughest challenges in striking a deal on Democrats’ reconciliation package, with a chasm between Energy and Natural Resources Chair Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) and much of the rest of the party.That divide crystallized yesterday after POLITICO reported a July 28 memo signed by Manchin and Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) specifying a $1.5 trillion top line for reconciliation — much lower than House Democrats’ $3.5 trillion package — and the inclusion of natural gas, coal and carbon capture in clean energy tax policies (Greenwire, Sept. 30).Manchin’s stance is threatening to derail the proposed Clean Electricity Performance Program (CEPP) that would likely be central to meeting President Biden’s emissions goals, frustrating Democrats who see reconciliation as one of the last chances to address climate change before it’s too late. “It’s not anything that you can really negotiate away,” Select Committee on the Climate Crisis Chair Kathy Castor (D-Fla.) said in an interview yesterday. “We either follow the science, or we condemn ourselves to higher costs and more catastrophes.” The leaked document, which Manchin confirmed to reporters yesterday, inserted another twist into the ongoing fight in the House over the bipartisan infrastructure bill. It was initially scheduled for a vote yesterday, but progressives planned to sink it without a deal with Manchin and fellow moderate Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (D-Ariz.) on reconciliation. The vote was delayed after talks that dragged into yesterday evening. The document includes several climate-related stipulations, namely that Manchin’s committee be charged with writing any clean energy standard and that if clean energy tax breaks are extended, fossil fuel tax benefits should be preserved. Climate spending, it says, should be “fuel neutral,” and carbon capture and storage should allow natural gas and coal to “feasibly qualify” for energy tax policies. Manchin is also doubling down on his concerns with the CEPP, which he laid out in detail this week during an Energy and Natural Resources hearing (Greenwire, Sept. 28).But House Democrats scoffed at the idea that coal and natural gas would get a place in a climate policy, even if some acknowledged a potential role for carbon capture. “To those of us in the real world, coal and natural gas are not clean. They’re just not,” Rep. Jared Huffman (D-Calif.) told reporters. “So let’s stop pretending, and let’s get real.”
Manchin: Natural gas 'has to be' part of clean energy program -- Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) on Thursday said natural gas must be included in a clean energy program his fellow Democrats are pushing.“It has to be,” the key swing vote senator told reporters. “I am all for all of the above. I am all for clean energy, but I am also for producing the amount of energy that we need to make sure that we have reliability.”The remark is sure to anger climate advocates, who have opposed the use of natural gas in a key program known as the Clean Electricity Performance Program (CEPP). A version of the CEPP drafted by the House would pay power providers to shift towards clean energy sources and penalize companies that don’t move quickly enough. The House’s version would exclude natural gas that doesn’t use technology to capture its emissions.When it’s burned, natural gas emits less planet-warming carbon into the atmosphere than other fossil fuels like coal, but its emissions are still a significant contributor to climate change. Manchin on Thursday also reiterated past opposition to paying utilities to make the switch, and instead floated low-interest loans. “I am just not for giving public companies who have shareholders, public dollars, free, when I know they’re going to be very profitable at the end whatever we do,” he said. “We might front you the money with low-interest loans, but shouldn’t we get it back when the profits start flowing so we don’t have to incur more debt,” he added. Manchin is not just a key Senate swing vote. He’s also the chairman of the Senate’s Energy and Natural Resources Committee that’s expected to craft the upper chamber’s version of the program.
Sen. Joe Manchin, who is holding up crucial climate change initiatives in Biden's reconciliation bill, collects Half a Million a Year From Coal Stocks Dividends: Report - Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin of West Virginia, who has in his own words "never been in a liberal in any way shape or form," is currently holding up the $3.5 trillion reconciliation bill that central to President Joe Biden's "Build Back Better" domestic agenda. But he's also likely to hold back any further action to combat the climate crisis, which could impact his million-dollar investments in the coal and energy industries. Manchin told CNN in July that he was disturbed by aspects of the $3.5 trillion reconciliation bill, including provisions that would target the fossil fuel industry. "I'm finding out there's a lot of language in places they're eliminating fossils, which is very, very disturbing, because if you're sticking your head in the sand, and saying that fossil (fuel) has to be eliminated in America, and they want to get rid of it, and thinking that's going to clean up the global climate, it won't clean it up all," Manchin said. "If anything, it would be worse." As The Guardian reported in partnership with the Center for Media and Democracy in July, Manchin himself founded a private coal brokerage in 1998 called "Enersystems." Though currently run by his son, Manchin still owns as much as a $5 million stake in the company, raking in $500,000 of income from it in 2020 alone. As of late 2019, Manchin was by far the most invested of any senator in "dirty energy." Manchin serves as chair of the Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee, which oversees the coal industry as well as "global climate change." As Sludge reported in early July, Manchin told the 2021 annual conference of the Edison Electric Institute in June that "coal-fired plants are being unfairly targeted by environmentalists."
Senate Democrats dial down the Manchin tension -Senate Democrats are trying to turn down the temperature after days of high-profile drama and a delay of the bipartisan infrastructure bill in the House. The House broke on Friday after days of intense, hours-long meetings without an agreement on a path forward on the Senate-passed infrastructure bill and the reconciliation bill, which is supposed to carry many of Democrats’ long-held policy ambitions. The standoff on Capitol Hill sparked a proxy war between "the Squad" and Senate moderates, with leadership stuck in the middle trying to figure out a way to satisfy them both. But Senate Democrats, including progressives in the caucus, are largely avoiding piling on against Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.). “We are in negotiations with all Democrats. Everyone is trying to row in the same direction,” said Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.), when asked if she was surprised or frustrated by Manchin’s $1.5 trillion top-line figure that’s $2 trillion short of what Biden and other Democrats have been pursuing. Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D-Mich.), who was spotted huddling with Manchin and Sen. Chris Coons (D-Del.) on the Senate floor this week, noted that they talked about “things that we want to get done, that we share.” “There’s a lot of common ground,” she added. “There’s a lot of positive effort.” The effort to stay positive comes after Manchin threw down a gauntlet on Thursday, publicly announcing his preference for a $1.5 trillion price tag for Democrats’ social spending bill. That’s significantly less than the $3.5 trillion Democrats greenlighted under a budget resolution earlier this year and the bill drafted by House committees. “For them to get theirs, elect more liberals. ... I’ve never been a liberal in any way, shape or form,” Manchin told reporters in a massive gaggle outside of the Capitol. But the response from Senate Democrats was largely muted, with several spinning Manchin’s comments as a positive step forward after weeks of questions about what their moderate colleague was seeking. “It’s certainly helpful to know Sen. Manchin’s priorities,” said Sen. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.). “What he's signaling is that he wants to get a deal.” Sen. Tim Kaine (D-Va.), asked if he viewed the $1.5 trillion as a hard stop for Manchin, said, “I would be surprised if that was a non-negotiable, just knowing Joe.” Senate Finance Committee Chairman Ron Wyden (D-Ore.), in response to a question about Manchin’s red line on $1.5 trillion, instead pointed back to the senator’s comments from earlier this week to a small group of reporters where he pointed to changes to the GOP 2017 tax bill as a core starting point. “He made it very clear that he wants to start reconciliation by rolling back the 2017 tax bill. … I want everybody to know that the Senate Finance Committee and I have spent three years getting ready for exactly this, and we’re ready to go right now,” Wyden said. “And one other point on this, he and I continue to have constructive discussions with regard to energy issues and I think that’s helpful,” Wyden continued. Part of the calculus for Democrats has been a belief that throwing rhetorical bombs at Manchin isn’t likely to move him. Even as Senate progressives have deep disagreements with Manchin on both the size and some of the substance of the $3.5 trillion spending plan, in a 50-50 Senate and with all Republicans voting, leadership will ultimately need his support in order to be successful.
Democrats Reach Agreement To Raise $600 Cap for Biden's Proposal On IRS Reporting, Surveillance - Democratic lawmakers have said they plan to raise the threshold of President Joe Biden’s radical proposal that all bank transactions of more than $600 be reported to the Internal Revenue Service (IRS).The initial proposal (pdf)—which Biden says is aimed at curbing tax evasion—would require banks and other financial institutions to report to the IRS any deposits or withdrawals totaling more than $600 annually to or from all business and personal accounts.The new reporting requirement would take effect in 2022 and would apply to both private individual and commercial business accounts owned by a taxpayer.But House Ways and Means Committee Chairman Richard Neal (D-Mass.) said on Sept. 23 that he and other Democratic leaders are planning to scrap the $600 annual figure and set a higher threshold, of which the details are still being worked through.“We’ve reached an agreement to not have the $600,” Neal told Bloomberg.A Democratic aide noted that they’re focusing on increasing the current threshold to $10,000 but said that figure could well change.Under the Bank Secrecy Act, U.S. financial institutions are currently mandated to report to the government all wire transfers over $10,000, as well as suspicious cash transactions, to prevent criminal activities such as money laundering.However, Biden and Democratic allies in Congress claim the threshold needs to be lowered to close the “tax gap,” which is the difference between what current federal law requires to be collected by the government and how much actually goes into the Treasury.The president has maintained that the new reporting rule will mean “the wealthy can no longer hide what they’re making and they can finally begin to pay their fair share of what they owe.”
Top generals contradict Biden, say they advised leaving 2,500 troops in Afghanistan - Top military officials told lawmakers on Tuesday that they had recommended 2,500 U.S. troops remain in Afghanistan, contradicting comments made by President Biden earlier this year. Gen. Frank McKenzie, head of U.S. Central Command, and Gen. Mark Milley, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, each acknowledged during public congressional testimony that they agreed with the recommendation of Army Gen. Austin Miller that 2,500 troops be left in the country, though they denied to detail what they advised Biden directly. Biden announced his decision to end U.S. military involvement in Afghanistan back in April. “I won’t share my personal recommendation to the president, but I will give you my honest opinion, and my honest opinion and view shaped my recommendation. I recommended that we maintain 2,500 troops in Afghanistan. And I also recommended earlier in the fall of 2020 that we maintain 4,500 at that time. Those are my personal views,” McKenzie told the Senate Armed Services Committee on Tuesday under questioning from Sen. James Inhofe (Okla.), the panel’s top Republican. McKenzie said it had been his view that the full U.S. withdrawal would lead to the collapse of Afghan forces and government. Milley said he agreed with that assessment and that it was his personal view dating back to last fall that the U.S. should maintain at least 2,500 troops in Afghanistan to move toward a peace agreement between the Taliban and Afghan government. Milley declined to comment directly on his specific discussions with Biden when questioned by Sen. Tom Cotton (R-Ark.). Asked whether Miller discussed his recommendation with Biden, McKenzie told lawmakers he believed his opinion “was well-heard.” Republican lawmakers repeatedly raised the matter in the context of an interview Biden gave to ABC News in August during which he denied that his top military commanders recommended he leave 2,500 troops in Afghanistan. “Your top military advisers warned against withdrawing on this timeline. They wanted you to keep about 2,500 troops,” ABC’s George Stephanopoulos said to Biden in the interview. “No, they didn't,” Biden replied. “It was split. That wasn't true.” “Your military advisers did not tell you, ‘No, we should just keep 2,500 troops. It's been a stable situation for the last several years. We can do that. We can continue to do that’?” Stephanopoulos later pressed. “No one said that to me that I can recall,” Biden replied.
Defense bill passed by the House of Representatives includes Ohio priorities - - A $768 billion defense authorization bill that the U.S. House of Representatives approved on Thursday contains measures championed by Northeast Ohio Congress members that would increase reservists’ pay, fight the Taliban’s illegal drug trade and combat veteran suicide, among other initiatives. The legislation would authorize a 2.7% pay increase for U.S. service members, authorizes $250 million to conduct counter-terrorism operations in Afghanistan, and boost America’s topline defense budget by 5% over this year’s levels. It passed by a 316 to 133 margin, with support from all Ohioans except Republicans Jim Jordan of Champaign County, Warren Davidson of Miami County and Steve Chabot of Cincinnati.Measures in the bill drafted by U.S. Rep. Anthony Gonzalez would provide mental-health counseling to service members transitioning into civilian life as a way to fight veteran suicides, require federal agencies to issue a report that assesses the risk to U.S. national security posed by Russian and Chinese dominance in the global nuclear energy market, and to better prepare the U.S. space industry against Chinese threats.An amendment that Toledo Democratic Rep. Marcy Kaptur co-led with a Texas Republican would require mandatory sanctions against the Nord Stream 2 pipeline project, a natural gas line that runs under the Baltic Sea between Russia and Germany. As co-chair of the Congressional Ukraine Caucus, Kaptur expressed concern that Russia will use the pipeline to weaponize energy as a way to undermine European security. Existing pipelines pass through Ukraine and provide it with revenue.The U.S. Senate hasn’t yet passed its version of the bill. After that happens, negotiators from both legislative bodies draft a consensus version which must pass both houses of Congress to become law.
Why is Biden doubling down on Trump's nuclear expansion? - President Biden has disappointed so far in fulfilling his campaign promise to reduce the role of nuclear weapons in U.S. national security policy. Most notably, his administration’s fiscal year 2022 budget fully funded every aspect of the Trump nuclear weapons program. The budget even went beyond what was contained in the Pentagon’s preexisting plan, which could cost up to $2 trillion over the next three decades. Congress is now poised to vote on the elements of that plan as it considers the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA). One of the president’s worst budgetary decisions was to substantially increase funding for a new intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) known officially by the antiseptic moniker ground-based strategic deterrent (GBSD). One would hardly know from the name of the system that it risks ending life as we know it. Former Secretary of Defense William Perry has called ICBMs “some of the most dangerous weapons in the world,” because the president would have only a matter of minutes to decide whether to launch them in a crisis, increasing the chances of an accidental nuclear war prompted by a false alarm. Given the danger posed by ICBMs, why are we poised to spend $264 billion to build and operate a new one? One reason for the ill-advised rush to procure a new land-based nuclear-armed missile is simple — pork-barrel politics. Senators from the states with ICBM bases and major ICBM maintenance and development work (Montana, North Dakota, Utah and Wyoming) have for years coalesced in the Senate ICBM Coalition, a lobbying hub that has successfully blocked efforts to reduce spending on or deployments of ICBMs, or even to study alternatives to building a new generation of them. ICBM bases create thousands of jobs and significant economic dependency in their host states. But that fact should not be allowed to hold our nuclear policy hostage and prevent efforts to make the world safer by forgoing a new ICBM and reconsidering the need to keep the existing ones.
How Autonomous Weapons Could Be More Destabilizing Than Nukes - Autonomous weapon systems – commonly known as killer robots – may have killed human beings for the first time ever last year, according to a recent United Nations Security Council report on the Libyan civil war. History could well identify this as the starting point of the next major arms race, one that has the potential to be humanity’s final one.Autonomous weapon systems are robots with lethal weapons that can operate independently, selecting and attacking targets without a human weighing in on those decisions. Militaries around the world are investing heavily in autonomous weapons research and development. The U.S. alone budgeted US$18 billion for autonomous weapons between 2016 and 2020.Meanwhile, human rights and humanitarian organizations are racing to establish regulations and prohibitions on such weapons development. Without such checks, foreign policy experts warn that disruptive autonomous weapons technologies will dangerously destabilize current nuclear strategies, both because they could radically change perceptions of strategic dominance,increasing the risk of preemptive attacks, and because they could become combined with chemical, biological, radiological and nuclear weapons themselves.As a specialist in human rights with a focus on the weaponization of artificial intelligence, I find that autonomous weapons make the unsteady balances and fragmented safeguards of the nuclear world – for example, the U.S. president’s minimally constrained authority to launch a strike – more unsteady and more fragmented.I see four primary dangers with autonomous weapons. The first is the problem of misidentification. When selecting a target, will autonomous weapons be able to distinguish between hostile soldiers and 12-year-olds playing with toy guns? Between civilians fleeing a conflict site and insurgents making a tactical retreat?Killer robots, like the drones in the 2017 short film ‘Slaughterbots,’ have long been a major subgenre of science fiction. (Warning: graphic depictions of violence.)The problem here is not that machines will make such errors and humans won’t. It’s that the difference between human error and algorithmic error is like the difference between mailing a letter and tweeting. The scale, scope and speed of killer robot systems – ruled by one targeting algorithm, deployed across an entire continent – could make misidentifications by individual humans like a recent U.S. drone strike in Afghanistan seem like mere rounding errors by comparison. A runaway gun is a defective machine gun that continues to fire after a trigger is released. The gun continues to fire until ammunition is depleted because, so to speak, the gun does not know it is making an error. Importantly, weaponized AI need not even be defective to produce the runaway gun effect. As multiple studies on algorithmic errors across industries have shown, the very best algorithms – operating as designed – can generate internally correct outcomes that nonetheless spread terrible errors rapidly across populations.
Merkel Governed Germany to the Left of Bernie Sanders: Why Don't Americans Know? - The headline at Fox “News” blares: “German Elections: Big Setback for Merkel’s Conservatives as Center-Left Party Comes Out on Top.” In a single sentence, it summarizes everything wrong with how American media and the American public understand what “conservative” means. In America, conservatives don’t want women to get abortions and some conservatives are even proposing the death penalty for women who succeed in aborting a zygote or fetus. Angela Merkel’s “conservatives” offer abortions to women in the first three months of pregnancy at no cost (if low-income) and with no excuses. A woman must meet with a state-approved “counselor” to essentially get a prescription for the abortion, a remnant of Germany having outlawed abortion in 1871 and doubled-down during Hitler’s time, but that’s it. And the meeting to get the prescription, the law says, must be, “An open-ended consultation that encourages the woman to keep the child while at the same time not persuading her.” No ultrasound wand rapes, no gory movies to watch, no multiple visits, no bounties on people who help. In America, conservatives don’t want the government to be funding or directly providing any sort of healthcare, saying that should be left to the “free market.” Healthcare is a privilege in America, but a right in Germany guaranteed by the government (Germany got the world’s first single-payer system in 1884). Angela Merkel’s “conservatives” give free health insurance to anybody not able to pay, and those who can pay for health insurance do so according to a sliding scale based on income (like with progressive taxes). Nobody in Germany is uninsured; nobody goes broke or becomes homeless because a member of their family got sick. In America, conservatives don’t think unions should exist with any government protections and employers should be able to destroy them at-will, which is why only a bit more than 5 percent of the US private workforce is unionized and we’re still fighting to maintain a 40-hour workweek. Angela Merkel’s “conservatives” run a country where every company with over 1000 employees is required to have members of their board of directors made up of “works council” representatives and, although the deindustrialization of the country as a result of neoliberal “reforms” in the 1980s-1990s led to a huge loss of manufacturing jobs to outsourcing, unions and works councils still have great power and represent 97+ percent of all workers in large (1000+ employee) firms. In America, conservatives have fought any sort of mandatory paid vacation time so effectively that we’re the only fully developed country in the world that doesn’t require employers to offer it. “Conservative” Merkel’s Germany requires a minimum of 24 workdays of paid vacation per year and 9-12 paid public holidays (depending on the state); most employers offer 5 or 6 weeks plus paid holidays. Merkel, of course, is just fine with that; her government employees are required to take their vacations and holidays, and she does, too, to set a good example if for no other reason.
Activists Take Vaccine Demands to the Home of Biden's Chief of Staff - A small band of longtime AIDS activists, fed up with what they regard as President Biden’s failure to scale up coronavirus vaccine manufacturing for global use, deposited a fake mountain of bones outside the home of Ron Klain, his chief of staff, on Wednesday to represent the lives they say have been lost to the president’s inaction.The activists, some of them veterans of much larger protests that played out at the National Institutes of Health more than 30 years ago, had already made similar demands in private phone calls with administration officials, including Dr. Anthony S. Fauci, a target of early AIDS protests who later became the activists’ ally.But the calls got them nowhere, they said. So they decided to try more old-fashioned, in-your-face tactics. The mountain of bones, they said, was made by a set designer in New York. They planted it in front of Mr. Klain’s next-door neighbor’s driveway to avoid running afoul of the Secret Service agents guarding Mr. Klain’s house. The agents eventually asked them politely to leave.“Nobody wants to be here in front of Ron Klain’s house, protesting a president that most of us all voted for,” said Gregg Gonsalves, a Yale University epidemiologist whose activism on behalf of people with AIDS led to a career in academia and a 2018 MacArthur “genius” grant. “But we’ve tried everything else.”He defended the decision to show up at the private home of an unelected administration official.“What is it — four million deaths, six million deaths, 10 million deaths — where we can show up on somebody’s lawn and hold them accountable?” Dr. Gonsalves said. More than 4.7 million people are known to have died worldwide from Covid-19, butanalyses of excess mortalities around the world suggests that the actual number is far higher. “They represent the public,” Dr. Gonsalves said of public servants. “We pay their salaries. They’re not listening to the American public, they’re not listening to the global public, they’re not listening to scientific advice. So this is the least we can do.”
Two-thirds of business leaders back Biden vaccine mandate: poll -Nearly two-thirds of business leaders support President Biden’s COVID-19 vaccine-or-test mandate for private companies, according to a survey from the Committee for Economic Development of The Conference Board (CED) released Tuesday. The business-backed nonprofit polled more than 100 CEOs and board directors, most of whom work for companies with over $1 billion in revenue. Forty-two percent of those surveyed said they “strongly agree” with Biden’s rule, while 24 percent “strongly disagree.” The Biden administration will require employers with more than 100 workers to mandate COVID-19 vaccinations or frequent testing. While GOP lawmakers have vowed to fight the measure, corporate America is largely supportive of Biden’s effort to boost vaccinations, though business groups have expressed concern about how companies will enforce the mandate. The CED survey found that about 56 percent of business leaders will find it difficult to implement the vaccine-or-test requirement. Roughly 30 percent of respondents said that the rule would negatively affect their firm’s culture, while just 12 percent said it would boost morale. “While our survey results reveal that the President has significant backing from the business community, the administration should proceed with caution given the intensity of the opposition felt by a quarter of the business leaders and the expected difficulties in implementation felt much more broadly,” Lori Esposito Murray, president of CED, said in a statement. The Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA) is expected to unveil the specifics of the vaccine requirement in the coming weeks. Business groups have expressed frustration with the agency’s decision to move forward with the rule without seeking input from companies that have already enacted vaccine requirements for their own employees.
Vaccine-Only Mandates as a Manifestation of the Bizarre Civil War-Stoking Impulses of the Professional-Managerial Class in the US - - Yves Smith- Today, we’ll discuss the vaccine mandates as a perverse example of the “othering” that has become a prominent and not-productive element of the official response to Covid. It as if this focus designed to serve the emotional needs of those in charge, in particular reaffirm their claim to authority and assertion of special privileges, rather than prevent death and suffering. And the “others” are responding in kind to the open hostility, starting with Biden saying he’s lost patience with the unvaccinated. A Covid strategy that relied pretty much exclusively on vaccinations could conceivably have worked with the original “wild type’ or “Wuhan” variant, where experts estimated that a ~65% vaccination level would reduce the replication rate to less than one, so the pathogen would fizzle out. There might still be outbreaks in low-vaccination areas, but Covid would be reduced to an intermittent, low-level problem.But with Delta being far more contagious, or as the experts would say, having a higher unmitigated R0, it would take a correspondingly much higher level of vaccination to lower the R0 to below one, with most experts pegging it at 85% if not higher.Getting to 85% would be daunting when you factor in not merely vaccine resistance/hesitancy and legitimate economic reasons to avoid vaccination (the risk of miss a day or two or work due to a routine reaction leading to a catastrophic economic downspiral) but also the fact that being vaccinated or getting Covid confers less than a year of immunity. The best guesstimates seem to be eight months for Moderna and contracting Covid, and close to that long for J&J, versus five to six months at best for Pfizer.3Despite efforts to impugn data out of Israel showing declining efficacy of Pfizer vaccine4, confirmed by a large-scale study out of Mayo, it appears that the current vaccines do very little to reduce contagiousness. The CDC study of the Provincetown outbreak found similar nasal viral loads among the vaccinated and unvaccinated; other studies tried to claim the vaccines still reduced Delta propagation. To the extent it does, it ain’t much, on the order of 2.0Moreover, waning vaccine effectiveness among the vaccinated translates into not merely more breakthrough cases, but also an increasing number of those with breakthrough cases winding up mighty sick. And all those cheery claims that virtually all of those hospitalized for Covid are unvaccinated is composed from anecdata since that information does not exist on a national level. From IM Doc: I was informed today by the Health Dept that they have absolutely zero way of tracking correctly vaccinated cases. In that they do not have the ability to retrospectively find out which vaccination the person has had. So there is no way the CDC will be having this kind of detail, unless other states are doing this.
Public Health Experts ‘Flabbergasted’ That Biden Still Hasn’t Picked an FDA Chief -President Joe Biden’s failure to name someone to lead the Food and Drug Administration, more than 10 months after the election, has flummoxed public health experts who say it’s baffling for the agency to be without a permanent leader during a national health crisis. The pandemic has taxed the FDA, an 18,000-person agency whose chiefs have traditionally received bipartisan backing during the Senate confirmation process. Many leaders in public health, industry and consumer groups agree that Biden’s foot-dragging on finding a new director has demoralized the staff and sent the wrong message about the agency’s importance, even as the toll of covid-19 mounts, with an average of 130,000 new cases and 1,500 deaths daily, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. It’s a tough job in normal times, observers say, and at the moment may be the worst top job in Washington. At the heart of the tension is finding a nominee who balances the agency’s dual responsibilities of protecting public health while also working with the drug, medical device and other industries to approve products and treatments for market. Meanwhile, the agency has been mired in controversies related to drug approvals and covid vaccines, and discord over decisions has spilled into public view. FDA commissioner is a “particularly rough job in wartime,” said Steven Grossman, executive director of the Alliance for a Stronger FDA, an outside organization consisting of industry, research and other groups, which pushes for Congress to increase agency funding. “It is a much more difficult post to fill than it appears to the eye.” Dr. Janet Woodcock, an agency veteran of three decades, has for months led as acting commissioner. She commands broad respect. But her perceived closeness to the drug industry, particularly with respect to the agency’s role in the opioid crisis, led some Senate Democrats to come out against her official assumption of the role. Biden would need all Democrats on board or some Republican senators to back his choice to get the votes for confirmation. In December, Biden announced other top health appointees who would helm his pandemic response, including Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra, Surgeon General Vivek Murthy and CDC Director Rochelle Walensky. HHS oversees the FDA — as it does the office of the Surgeon General, the CDC and the National Institutes of Health. But still no sign of an FDA nomination. Biden officials reportedly considered multiple potential candidates throughout the spring, including Woodcock; former top FDA official and Maryland health secretary Joshua Sharfstein; former FDA official Michelle McMurry-Heath; and Scripps Research Translational Institute director Dr. Eric Topol (who confirmed to KHN he wasn’t interested). Then the process seemed to deadlock.
Amy Coney Barrett sullies the Supreme Court - At an event commemorating the 30th anniversary of the McConnell Center in Louisville, Ky., Supreme Court Justice Amy Coney Barrettdelivered a speech saying, “My goal today is to convince you that this court is not comprised of a bunch of partisan hacks.”This remarkable line came just days after Barrett joined a 5-4 majority upholding a Texas law seeking to overturn Roe v. Wade by empowering citizens to sue anyone who assists in an abortion after six weeks of pregnancy, even if it was the result of rape or incest. Justice Stephen Breyer wryly observed that the Texas case “wasn’t very good [timing] for my book,” which also maintains that the justices aren’t “junior league politicians.” The Texas law is very unpopular. A Monmouth University poll found 54 percent opposed the court’s decision to keep the law in place; 70 percent disagreed with the provision allowing citizens to file lawsuits against anyone who assists in an abortion; and 63 percent want Roe v. Wade left alone. The court’s decision will soon be followed by a Mississippi abortion case it will hear in December that could spell the end for Roe v. Wade. Justice Barrett’s visit to the McConnell Center and her introduction by a smiling Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) highlights the contradiction between Barrett’s assertion that the court isn’t comprised of “partisan hacks” and the manner of her appointment.McConnell loves to make up Senate rules that suit his purpose and void them when they don’t. In 2016, he invoked the so-called “Biden Rule,”saying that after the unexpected death of Justice Antonin Scalia any replacement must wait until the outcome of the presidential election. Merrick Garland, President Obama’s nominee to replace Scalia, didn’t even get a Senate hearing. But when Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg died in September 2020 while millions of Americans were voting, McConnell rushed Barrett’s appointment through the Senate just eight days before the election. Barrett was confirmed with no Democrat voting “yes,” the first time in 150 years every member of the minority party opposed a Supreme Court nominee. McConnell rejoiced, calling Barrett’s confirmation “a huge success for the country.”In reality, it was a huge success for McConnell, who, like the infamousGeorge Washington Plunkitt, “seen his opportunities and took ‘em.” On the night Ginsburg died, a jubilant President Trump told McConnell, “This is what Mitch was made for: filling the Supreme Court seats.” Filling Supreme Court seats has been a long-term GOP project. Decades ago, the imprimatur of the American Bar Association was akin to the Good Housekeeping seal of approval for judicial nominees. No more. For Republicans, it’s the endorsement of the Federalist Society that matters most. Founded in 1982, the Federalist Society has as its sole aim identifying and endorsing conservative jurists. Its nominees have met with the enthusiastic approval of Republican presidents, who prefer the young, committed conservatives promoted by the Federalist Society, whose longevity assures them of a lasting judicial legacy.
131 federal judges failed to recuse themselves from cases in which they had financial interest: report -- One hundred and thirty-one federal judges oversaw court cases involving companies in which they or their family members owned stock, according to a new investigation.Those judges violated U.S. law and judicial ethics as they failed to recuse themselves from a total of 685 court cases in which they may have had a conflict of interest, an investigation by The Wall Street Journal found.In those cases, about two-thirds of the rulings were in favor of the financial interests of the judge, the Journal reported. The cases took place between 2010 and 2020, and of the two-thirds of federal district judges who disclosed individual stock holdings, about 20 percent of them heard at least one case that involved their stock, according to the Journal. While nothing prohibits judges from holding individual stocks, the code of conduct for federal judges requires that they recuse themselves given any financial interest in a case or "ownership of a legal or equitable interest, however small."
Influencer Society and Its Future -- “HELLO FELLOW TRIBE MEMBERS.” The friendly greeting is superimposed over a familiar image of a rust-colored A-frame cabin with a green roof. Below it, a teen waves and strikes poses along with the on-screen text while percussion music plays in the video’s background. “Some of my beliefs: unga bunga > ooga booga. the industrial revolution and its consequences have been a disaster for the human race. anti civ CHAD. i cannot wait to tear down some power lines with you guys!”Of all the contemporary internet’s innumerable hovels, few are as bewildering as the shambly shanty of Tedpilled TikTok. There, content creators meet the platform’s trending memes in a densely ironic effort to elevate Ted Kaczynski, the Unabomber. Through song imitations, dialogue reenactments, reaction videos, voiceovers, and dances, TikTokers broadcast the incarcerated terrorist’s views about the necessity of dismantling industrial society through property destruction and murder.Using the hashtags #tedpill, #tedk, and #tedkazcynski—which have collectively garnered millions of views—the Tedpilled place photographs of the Unabomber in “duets” with other videos, creating a counterpoint between Kaczynski’s views and the supposed excesses of influencer culture. With the Wombo.AI, they face-morph Kaczynski into goofily singing songs about Fortnite. Elsewhere, shaggy anarchists riff on the #DontBeSurprised trend—in which TikTokers share images representing their hopes and dreams with the text “Don’t be surprised if one day I just . . . ”—juxtaposing the peppy indie-folk song “Go Down On You” by The Memories with pictures of Ted Kaczynski standing next to his off-the-grid cabin. Light-hearted jokes about personal body counts and depopulation fantasies coexist alongside more earnest defenses of anarcho-primitivist politics.It’s a strange, if organic, world. It blurs the line between the hyperbolic adoration of online stan culture and a critique of the same, all unfolding in the vernacular of the young and extremely online: Ted was right. Ted is daddy. Ted is a based God. In one since-deleted video, a mop-topped kid mouths along to a hip-hop song and points to a text bubble reading, “the Industrial Revolution lowkey be cringe,” followed by a string of emojis. Another entry in the canon is labeled “ted is so fine i’m sorry”; in it, a doe-eyed teen who has superimposed herself over a photo of a young, fresh-faced Unabomber sits in front of the stars-and-stripes while lip-syncing the Counting Crows “Accidentally in Love” (originally composed for the motion picture Shrek 2). To swallow the “Ted pill” is to embrace the romance of a return to a pre-industrial, hunter-gatherer lifestyle. It is to reject modernity, agriculture, and civilization itself. It offers a dystopian diagnosis of modern life, embracing a utopian fantasy of some prelapsarian state-of-nature. More paradoxically, Ted-pilling means using TikTok—a culturally dominant, globalized, Chinese-owned social networking techno-bauble—as a means of agitating for a radical political philosophy that is, among much else, vehemently anti-technology.
'Pre-crime' software and the limits of AI - The Michigan State Police (MSP) has acquired software that will allow the law enforcement agency to "help predict violence and unrest," according to a story published by The Intercept. I could not help but be reminded of the film Minority Report. In that film three exceptionally talented psychics are used to predict crimes before they happen and apprehend the would-be perpetrators. These not-yet perpetrators are guilty of what is called "pre-crime," and they are sentenced to live in a very nice virtual reality where they will not be able to hurt others. The public's acceptance of the fictional pre-crime system is based on good numbers: It has eliminated all pre-meditated murders for the past six years in Washington, D.C. where it has been implemented. Which goes to prove—fictionally, of course—that if you lock up enough people, even ones who have never committed a crime, crime will go down. How does the MSP software work? Let me quote again from The Intercept: The software, put out by a Wyoming company called ShadowDragon, allows police to suck in data from social media and other internet sources, including Amazon, dating apps, and the dark web, so they can identify persons of interest and map out their networks during investigations. By providing powerful searches of more than 120 different online platforms and a decade’s worth of archives, the company claims to speed up profiling work from months to minutes. Simply reclassify all of your online "friends," "connections" and "followers" as accomplices and you'll start to get a feel for what this software and other pieces of software mentioned in the article can do. The ShadowDragon software in concert with other similar platforms and companion software begins to look like what the article calls "algorithmic crime fighting." Here is the main problem with this type of thinking about crime fighting and the general hoopla over artificial intelligence (AI): Both assume that human behavior and experience can be captured in lines of computer code. In fact, at their most audacious, the biggest boosters of AI claim that it can and will learn the way humans learn and exceed our capabilities.
Robert Kaplan Was Trading Like a Hedge Fund Kingpin for Five Years while President of the Dallas Fed; a Dozen Legal Safeguards Failed to Stop Him -- Pam Martens --Dallas Fed President, Robert Kaplan, wasn’t just trading like an aggressive hedge fund kingpin in 2020, he’s been doing the same thing for five years at the Dallas Fed while simultaneously having access to non-public, market moving information from the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate setting FOMC meetings and other confidential communications.In 2017 and 2020, Kaplan was a voting member of the FOMC. In the other years since he joined the Dallas Fed in 2015, he sat in on the confidential FOMC deliberations and was allowed to participate in the discussions.Each of Kaplan’s financial disclosures forms dating back to when he first became Dallas Fed President on September 8, 2015 (which we obtained directly from the Dallas Fed), show that Kaplan was trading in and out of S&P 500 futures, a highly speculative form of trading used by hedge funds and day traders. Each of Kaplan’s S&P 500 transactions are listed at “over $1 million.” The phrase “over $1 million” could mean anything from $1,000,001 to tens of millions of dollars per transaction. The phrase is a form of opacity that leads to more loss of credibility at the Dallas Fed.Unlike other regional Fed bank presidents and all Federal Reserve Board Governors, Kaplan did not list the dates of his transactions for any year of his financial disclosures. He simply placed the word “multiple” where the specific dates should have gone on his financial disclosure forms. For how the Schedule B/Transactions part of the form is supposed to be prepared, see the financial disclosure form filed by Tom Barkin, President of the Richmond Fed. Each purchase and each sale are supposed to be entered on a separate line, with the date next to each. Kaplan’s financial disclosure forms lump purchases and sales together on the same line, putting the word “Multiple” where the actual dates of the trade are supposed to be listed.In the early part of Kaplan’s career, he was a CPA for Peat Marwick Mitchell. He should certainly know that how he listed his trading transactions is improper.In addition to speculating in stock index futures, Kaplan has also made tens of millions of dollars in purchases and sales of a litany of individual stocks over the last five years, including Big Tech and fossil fuel companies, rather than adhering to the customary ethical standard by Fed officials of employing a buy and hold position in diversified mutual funds. In 2020, the vast majority of Kaplan’s individual stock trades were also for “over $1 million.” The Federal Reserve had rules against this very type of speculative trading for decades, but those rules have now somehow managed to vanish into thin air.
Goldman Sachs Refuses to Say If It Was Placing Trades for Dallas Fed President Kaplan as Materially False Statement Released by Board on Kaplan’s Relationship with Goldman Sachs - Pam Martens ~ The biggest trading scandal in the Federal Reserve’s 108-year history took down two Federal Reserve Bank Presidents yesterday. Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren, who traded in and out of REITs last year in amounts of $1,000 to $50,000, will leave this Thursday; Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan, whose trading made Rosengren look like a Boy Scout, will step down from his post at the end of next week. Kaplan was making repeated trades of “over $1 million” in S&P 500 futures (an instrument used during and after stock exchange hours by hedge funds) as well as making “over $1 million” trades in a litany of individual stocks. Just as a poker player can give away his hand with a tell, financial disclosure statements can also provide a tell as to the name of the Wall Street firm that is placing the trades. Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan has a “tell” on his financial disclosure forms that suggests he was placing at least some of his trades at the Wall Street firm where he worked for 22 years, Goldman Sachs, the global trading behemoth.Most trading accounts at the major firms have what is called a “sweep account.” When a trader sells a stock, instead of the proceeds sitting in cash without earning interest, the proceeds are “swept” into a designated money market fund. The only money market fund that Kaplan indicates he owns is listed as the “GS Financial Square Money Market Fund” on his financial disclosure form. GS stands for…wait for it…Goldman Sachs.The Goldman Sachs Financial Square Money Market Fund was not listed on Kaplan’s financial disclosure form for calendar year 2015, the year he joined the Dallas Fed. But it was listed on his financial disclosure forms for years 2016 through 2020.We have now reached out via email, over multiple days, to a total of five of Goldman Sachs’ media relations staff, including a Managing Director and Head of Media Relations, inquiring as follows: […]We heard dead silence from all five media relations folks.In the second email we reminded Goldman Sachs of the following:“As you may know, Goldman Sachs remains under a Deferred Prosecution agreement for a criminal charge with the Department of Justice and an ongoing 3-year probation period. Given the serious issues we raise in an article today around the failed compliance obligations of the brokerage firm that conducted these trades for Kaplan, we would expect that Goldman Sachs would want to get it on the public record quickly if it did not conduct these trades for Kaplan.”Again, all we heard was dead silence from Goldman Sachs.Can we conclusively say that Kaplan was making his trades with the firm where he spent the bulk of his career, no we can’t. But we can conclusively state that two members of the Dallas Fed Board of Directors, speaking on behalf of the entire Board, released a materially false statement yesterday regarding Kaplan’s relationship with Goldman Sachs.The statement released yesterday by Greg Armstrong, Chair of the Board of Directors of the Dallas Fed, and Thomas Falk, Deputy Chair “on behalf of and with the unanimous endorsement of” the entire Board, included these two sentences:“Upon joining the Bank, Rob systematically sold all of his personal holdings related to financial institutions over which the Federal Reserve had regulatory oversight or were otherwise restricted. Rob also conducted his investment activities in accordance with the rules and policies of the Federal Reserve System.”The first sentence is materially false. Kaplan held a position offered by Goldman Sachs, a “financial institution over which the Federal Reserve had regulatory oversight” at the time of his first financial disclosure at the Dallas Fed in 2015. He held multiple positions offered by Goldman Sachs after joining the Dallas Fed.The second sentence is spurious; Kaplan violated at least two of the prohibitions in the Dallas Fed Code of Conduct.
Was Boston Fed President Rosengren Trading with Citigroup’s Money? - By Pam Martens --The culture of Wall Street has now completely engulfed the Fed: it’s legal if you can get away with it. For more than five years the President of the Dallas Fed, Robert Kaplan, was trading like a hedge fund kingpin in “over $1 million” transactions in S&P 500 futures while refusing to follow the requirements of the Fed’s financial disclosure form and list the specific dates of his purchases and sells so that the transactions could be examined for whether he had inside information from the Fed at the time. That information is now as much as five years overdue to the American people and we have asked the Dallas Fed to provide it promptly.The Dallas Fed further hampered the free press in America from doing its job by refusing to answer our simple question as to whether Kaplan was shorting stocks or S&P 500 futures during the pandemic crisis in 2020.Then the Dallas Fed Board of Directors released a statement on Monday saying that Kaplan “sold all of his personal holdings related to financial institutions over which the Federal Reserve had regulatory oversight,” when he joined the Dallas Fed. On Tuesday we published documented proof that Kaplan continued to own four proprietary products from Goldman Sachs, one of which is so opaque that it hasn’t even filed a prospectus or offering memorandum with the Securities and Exchange Commission. (Goldman Sachs has been under Federal Reserve regulatory oversight since September 21, 2008 when it became a bank holding company in order to claim its share of the bailout money the Fed was secretly showering on the trading houses on Wall Street.)Now it turns out that Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren’s wife had a $150,000 to $500,000 “Secured Loan for Investment” with Citigroup’s federally-insured bank, Citibank. Rosengren’s financial disclosure form shows that all 68 of his purchases and sells in individual stocks and REITs in 2020 occurred in his joint account with his spouse.
Wells Fargo settles Justice Department foreign exchange lawsuit --Wells Fargo reached a settlement with the U.S. Justice Department over claims it overcharged commercial customers who used the bank’s foreign exchange services. The U.S. claims that from 2010 through 2017, Wells Fargo defrauded 771 customers — many of which were small or medium-size businesses and banks — by charging more than they claimed for foreign exchange transactions. The bank agreed to pay $37 million to settle a lawsuit filed by the government in federal court in New York on Monday. Shares of Wells Fargo fell as much as 3.7%. The stock was down 2.2% to $46.87 at 1:12 p.m. in New York.
Citigroup Asks Appeals Court to Let It Recoup $504M Lost in Revlon Loan Pre-Pay Error -Citigroup Inc. on Wednesday pressed a federal appeals court to let it recoup about $504 million of its own money that it accidentally wired Revlon Inc. lenders, saying its mistake did not entitle them to a huge windfall. The bank’s lawyer Neal Katyal said the lenders had six “red flags” of the error, and had not expected the cosmetics company controlled by billionaire Ronald Perelman to repay them for another three years. “If you hit rewind here, it’s not unfair,” Katyal told the 2nd U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals in Manhattan. “The parties get returned to the position that they bargained for.” But one member of the three-judge panel said a key precedent from New York state’s highest court appeared to leave legal questions about Citigroup’s payment and the lenders’ response unanswered, and which perhaps that court should answer first. “Each of those issues is really a question of policy,” Circuit Judge Pierre Leval said. “We would largely be guessing.” The case stemmed from New York-based Citigroup’s August 2020 prepayment of an $894-million loan for Revlon, which lacked enough cash to repay it, that was not due until 2023. Rather than return their share of the money, 10 asset managers whose clients included the Revlon lenders kept it. They said Citigroup, acting as Revlon’s loan agent, paid exactly what was owed, and they had no reason to believe a sophisticated bank would err so badly. The asset managers included Brigade Capital Management, HPS Investment Partners and Symphony Asset Management, among others. On Feb. 16, U.S. District Judge Jesse Furman ruled against Citigroup, saying the prepayment was a “discharge for value,” and the asset managers were not on notice of Citigroup’s blunder. Those managers deserve “finality,” their lawyer Kathleen Sullivan told the appeals court. She also said the prepayment seemed plausible because Perelman had previously bailed out Revlon. But Katyal said the banking industry wires $5.4 trillion each day, and mistakes will happen. Industry groups have said a ruling against Citigroup could expose banks to excessive liability risks, and destabilize the approximately $1.2 trillion U.S. syndicated loan market.
Citi hires ex-Treasury official McIntosh to be general counsel - Citigroup has hired Brent McIntosh, a former Treasury Department official, as its next general counsel and corporate secretary. McIntosh, general counsel and under secretary for international affairs at the Treasury Department in the Trump administration, will succeed Rohan Weerasinghe as Citigroup's general counsel in October. McIntosh will start next month and replaces Rohan Weerasinghe, who will stay with the firm through the end of the year to ensure a smooth transition, Citigroup Chief Executive Officer Jane Fraser said in a memo to staff. The bank had already announced that Weerasinghe planned to retire by year-end after almost a decade in the role. McIntosh spent more than 10 years at the law firm Sullivan & Cromwell before joining the Treasury Department during former President Donald Trump’s administration, where he was general counsel before being named under secretary for international affairs. In that role, he helped design and implement measures to limit the economic impact of the pandemic.
Long way to go on Libor transition as key deadline nears - With less than 100 days left before a key deadline, banks are moving away from the world’s most important interest rate more slowly than regulators had hoped. Despite years of preparation and hand-wringing, many new U.S. bank loans are still using the London interbank offered rate, or Libor, which is being phased out globally after a rate manipulation scandal years ago. The limited progress is “disappointing but not surprising” and reflects the massive challenge of moving lenders away from a benchmark they’ve used for decades, said Kathryn Judge, a law professor at Columbia University who focuses on financial stability.
Can regulators keep pace with fintech innovation? - Digital payment products and alternative credit took off rapidly during the pandemic — and while they may have outpaced regulation, these technologies did not escape regulators' notice. New fintech and payment services are likely to face tougher rules under the Biden administration, but the market is moving so fast that regulators can't keep up, according to a panel of financial technology legal experts at American Banker's Card Forum, taking place this week as a virtual event. "Some of these [payment] products didn't exist five years ago," said Brian Tate, president and CEO of the Innovative Payments Association, a Washington, D.C.-based trade group. "We're in a pandemic, which strains resources, so it's much easier for regulators to focus on what they [already] know."
Push to regulate crypto could test limits of CFPB's power -Many in the regulatory community believe the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau isgearing up to launch enforcement actions against cryptocurrency firms. But that could revive a debate about the limits of CFPB power.As crypto evolves into a mainstream consumer product, complaints to the CFPB about the sector have already exceeded 1,700 this year, compared with 982 all of last year and 488 in 2019. With the industry's growth have come calls for regulatory checks. Speculation has mounted that Rohit Chopra, President Biden’s choice to lead the CFPB, will take an expansive view of the bureau’s authority by penalizing crypto companies for "unfair, deceptive, or abusive acts or practices," a federal prohibition under the Dodd-Frank Act that is the basis for many enforcement actions.
Treasury is pushing to impose banklike rules on stablecoins -- A U.S. effort to regulate stablecoins favors policing them like lenders, which could jeopardize the future of tokens from firms that refuse to seek federal banking licenses.Led by the Treasury Department, the President’s Working Group on Financial Markets is aiming to issue a report on stablecoins by the end of the month. An expected recommendation is that Congress establish a limited charter allowing new crypto banks to manage stablecoins as deposits, according to a senior official involved with the report who asked not to be named because it hasn’t been finalized.The group of regulators has also been considering urging the Financial Stability Oversight Council to examine whether stablecoins pose a systemic threat. That option would be another approach to impose banklike rules on the tokens, particularly if lawmakers fail to act.
Retailer Neiman Marcus Notifies 4.6M Customers of Data Breach - Dallas-based retailer Neiman Marcus Group said it recently learned that an unauthorized party obtained personal information associated with customers’ online accounts in May. NMG said it notified law enforcement of the issue and is working with Mandiant, a cybersecurity firm, to investigate and it is notifying approximately 4.6 million Neiman Marcus online customers of the breach. The company said that the personal information involved may have included names and contact information; payment card numbers and expiration dates; Neiman Marcus virtual gift card numbers; and usernames, passwords, and security questions and answers associated with Neiman Marcus online accounts. The company also suffered a breach in 2013, which ended up costing it a $1.5 million settlement with 43 state attorneys general in 2019. In this latest breach, approximately 3.1 million payment and virtual gift cards were affected, more than 85% of which the company said are expired or invalid. No active Neiman Marcus-branded credit cards were impacted. At this time, the company has no evidence that any accounts with company affiliates Bergdorf Goodman or Horchow have been affected. Under terms of the 2019 settlement, Neiman Marcus agreed to maintain reasonable procedures to protect customers’ personal data and obtain an information security assessment and report from a third-party professional.
Re/Insurance Cyber Rates Could Double Before 2023, as Attacks Skyrocket: S&P --The pandemic caused economic and insured losses from cyber attacks to skyrocket, which has heightened awareness of the risk and increased demand for cyber re/insurance, according to a report published by S&P Global Ratings. “The trend toward digitalization will inevitably lead to a higher likelihood of cyber incidents. Prices in the cyber re/insurance market could therefore rise sharply over 2021-2023, even doubling in some cases,” said S&P Global Ratings credit analyst Manuel Adam, in a statement accompanying the report, titled “Cyber Risks In A New Era: Reinsurers Could Unlock The Cyber Insurance Market.” With the substantial pick-up in cyber losses, re/insurers saw higher combined ratios in 2020 and 2021 than in previous years, said the ratings agency. Citing Aon statistics, S&P said the cyber combined ratio in the U.S. increased by more than 20 percentage points to 95.4% in 2020, from 74.5% in 2019. (Editor’s note: S&P compared data from two U.S. cyber market updates published by Aon in June 2020 and June 2021). S&P attributed the losses to the growing frequency and severity of ransomware and social engineering claims. “These include claims for business interruption, rising incident response costs, and extortion demands.” Even after raising re/insurance premiums, S&P said, cyber business lines were not as profitable in 2020 as they had been in previous years. To sustain long-term profitability, S&P expects that insurers will continue to restructure their cyber insurance offerings by further increasing rates and adjusting their terms and conditions (T&Cs), particularly the exclusions. “Some insurers also intend to further reduce their pay out limits, especially where contracts include ransomware or business interruption components. At the same time, they hope to increase retention levels through 2021-2023,” the report noted. “Depending on the region and T&Cs, policyholders could expect rate adjustments of up to 100% because the risk level has fundamentally changed.” S&P said there has been a shift from nonaffirmative cyber coverage (known as silent cyber) to affirmative (or explicit) coverage, which is leading to previously unrecognized premium volume. “Where policies carry this type of uncertainty, insurers can find themselves facing losses to settle unexpected cyber-related claims,” said the report. Nevertheless, cyber underwriters have become more experienced, can base decisions on exponentially improved data sets and are cautious about expanding insurance limits and T&Cs, continued the report. Given the volatility of cyber risks, S&P said it’s appropriate that reinsurers are taking a restrained approach that indicates stronger risk management in the global reinsurance sector. “We see a strong correlation between the sophistication of insurers’ risk management and their approach to managing cyber risk.”
Plan for banks to help catch tax cheats grabs spotlight at hearing — A controversial plan to use bank account data to help fund Biden administration initiatives and the job security of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell took priority as senators grilled Powell and Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen. Members of the Senate Banking Committee questioned the two officials Tuesday as major economic policies hung in the balance. Congress is preparing to vote on a landmark infrastructure package as well as the administration's $3.5 trillion social policy plan, while lawmakers are also heading for a showdown over the federal debt limit. The hearing was dominated in part by GOP criticism of a proposal requiring banks to report on customer account flows as means to collect more tax revenue to help pay for the $3.5 trillion plan. Financial services firms have staunchly opposed the idea, noting the compliance burden potential privacy risk facing account holders.
Why debt limit standoff could be worrisome for banks — Congress is at an all too familiar stalemate over raising the federal debt ceiling, worrying bankers and others that the financial markets could take a hit if lawmakers fail to reach a deal in advance of an October deadline.Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen told lawmakers this week that the Treasury Department willrun out of options to finance the government by Oct. 18 if Congress does not move either to suspend or raise the debt ceiling, which would result in the U.S. defaulting on its debt for the first time. But Democrats and Republicans are effectively playing a game of political chicken. Many expect Democrats will ultimately resolve the impasse on their own. But the closer Congress gets to the deadline without a solution, the worst-case scenario for banks could be higher interest rates, a reduced credit supply and a hit to Treasury securities.
Q3 2021 Update: Unofficial Problem Bank list Decreased to 59 Institutions --The FDIC's official problem bank list is comprised of banks with a CAMELS rating of 4 or 5, and the list is not made public (just the number of banks and assets every quarter). CAMELS is the FDIC rating system, and stands for Capital adequacy, Asset quality, Management, Earnings, Liquidity and Sensitivity to market risk. The scale is from 1 to 5, with 1 being the strongest. As a substitute for the CAMELS ratings, surferdude808 is using publicly announced formal enforcement actions, and also media reports and company announcements that suggest to us an enforcement action is likely, to compile a list of possible problem banks in the public interest. Here are the quarterly changes and a few comments from surferdude808:Since the last update at the end of June 2021, the list decreased by six to 59 institutions after two additions and eight removals. Assets increased by $3.1 billion to $54.9 billion, with the change entirely from nearly a $5.0 billion increase from updated asset figures through June 30, 2021. A year ago, the list held 64 institutions with assets of $52.4 billion. Additions this month included The Anna-Jonesboro National Bank, Anna, IL ($268 million) and First Savanna Savings Bank, Savanna, IL ($11 million). Removals because of action termination included Patriot Bank, National Association, Stamford, CT ($963 million); CFSBank, Charleroi, PA ($545 million); Metropolitan Capital Bank & Trust, Chicago, IL ($245 million); South LaFourche Bank & Trust Company, Larose, LA ($145 million); AllNations Bank, Calumet, OK ($48 million); and Sainte Marie State Bank, Sainte Marie, IL ($16 million). Removals through unassisted merger included Jackson County Bank, Black River Falls, WI ($205 million) and Towanda State Bank, Towanda, KS ($11 million). On September 8, 2021, the FDIC released second quarter results and provided an update on the Official Problem Bank List. In that release, the FDIC said there were 51 institutions with assets of $46 billion on the official list, down from the 54 institutions with assets of $55 billion in the first quarter of 2021.With the conclusion of the second quarter, we bring an updated transition matrix to detail how banks are transitioning off the Unofficial Problem Bank List. Since we first published the Unofficial Problem Bank List on August 7, 2009 with 389 institutions, 1,779 institutions have appeared on a weekly or monthly list since then. Only 3.3 percent of the banks that have appeared on a list remain today as 1,720 institutions have transitioned through the list. Departure methods include 1,014 action terminations, 411 failures, 276 mergers, and 19 voluntary liquidations. Of the 389 institutions on the first published list, only 3 or less than 1.0 percent, still have a troubled designation more than ten years later. The 411 failures represent 23.1 percent of the 1,779 institutions that have made an appearance on the list. This failure rate is well above the 10-12 percent rate frequently cited in media reports on the failure rate of banks on the FDIC's official list.
Small banks, credit unions warned to brace for pandemic aftershock - Credit union and bank clients — and ultimately the financial institutions where they do business — have been propped up to some degree by federal stimulus programs during the pandemic. But with the phaseout of government support that was designed to keep consumers, businesses and markets afloat, parts of the economy could falter and put more credit unions and banks at risk of financial losses or even failure, some experts say. Todd Harper, the chairman of the National Credit Union Administration, warned last week that the industry should expect delinquencies and charge-offs to rise in the months ahead. He urged credit unions to pay careful attention to their capital, asset quality, earnings and liquidity.
One Bank Finds That There Is Actually Too Little Corporate Debt --By now it is common knowledge (or we hope it is) that there is just way too much debt in the world, with the IIF calculating earlier this month that global debt hit a record $296 billion in Q2, up $36 trillion since covid, representing almost 360% of global GDP. Yet in an unexpected twist, this morning BofA's credit strategists made the "surprising" discovery that corporate debt has never been lower... at least when compared to the amount of corporate equity.As Bank of America strategist Hans Mikkelsen writes, "financial debt (bonds and loans) of US Non-financial corporations fell to a record low 23% of the market value of equity in in 2Q-2021 from 25% the prior quarter (Figure 1).Amusingly, and in what we assume is an attempt at institutional trolling, Mikkelsen then says that while some have argued over the years there is too much corporate debt (Figure 2), "that suggests instead there is either too much corporate equity or too little corporate debt, or both."While it's unclear if the chief BofA credit strategist was being facetious or joking, luckily he answered his own rhetorical question by noting that "assets have struggled historically following low values for this leverage ratio (4Q-1972, 1Q-2000, 2Q-2007)."Why? Because what this completely meaningless ratio reveals is that while we may have a corporate debt bubble (and we do), it's far smaller than the equity bubble, hence why the denominator (market value of equity) is massive enough to make the total debt amount small. And, no surprise, the ratio hits record lows when there are equity bubbles like in 2000 and 2007, which is also why assets "struggle" after... because what happens after the equity bubble peaks is far less pleasant. The only question is how much further will central banks keep inflating the current bubble which also happens to be the biggest of all time.
NCUA plan would exempt government funds from subordinated debt rule - Billions in funds earmarked for credit unions under the Treasury’s Emergency Capital Investment Program could be exempted from the National Credit Union Administration’s pending subordinated debt rule.Credit unions would prefer the option of using the ECIP money to meet their risk-based capital requirements, but that would be impossible under the current rule, which bans money from government programs from being used for that purpose.At an NCUA meeting Thursday, the board approved a proposal to grandfather secondary capital issued by the United States government provided it is applied for by Jan. 1, 2022. It would not matter when a credit union receives the funds.
Across four continents, Apple's control of payments is under attack - Apple has long wielded its global market power as a blunt instrument, enabling it to dictate the terms of contracts with banks, app developers and anyone else that wants entry into its ecosystem. It may finally be meeting its match.A federal judge recently ruled Apple must allow developers to use third-party payment options for App Store purchases. Apple and Epic Games were engaged in a dispute over Apple's payment fees.The App Store is a lucrative business for Apple, with App Store revenue totaling about $64 billion in 2020 with a profit margin above 75%. Apple receives a fee of up to 30% for any digital services sold through its App Store or within apps, but not physical goods ordered from apps.Developers bristled at the terms, but few fought back. One exception is Epic, maker of the popular game Fortnite, which defied Apple by putting third-party payment options in its game. Apple removed the game immediately, prompting a long court battle that ended with Epic owing Apple $6 million for payments over the past year, according to 9to5Mac."App Store revenue is not a small number, and it will take a lot to fill the hole if a chunk of that goes away," said Thad Peterson, strategic advisor for retail banking and payments for Aite-Novarica Group. The Epic Games dispute is just one of several fights Apple has faced while attempting to expand its mobile wallet, payment app and App Store in multiple markets. Apple, which has battled with Amazon to be the world's most valuable company, often runs afoul of regulators, politicians and rivals that contend the company's frequent use of walled garden policies for its technology and huge market share unfairly hinders competition. Here are some examples of these battles, and a look at how Apple is able to attract banks and merchants to its payment products despite the controversy.
Senate confirms Chopra as CFPB chief in party-line vote - Rohit Chopra was confirmed by the Senate to serve as director of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, returning a consumer watchdog to an agency that has been rocked by partisan divisions over the scope of its power. Chopra was approved Thursday by the Senate in a 50-48 vote along party lines. He has been serving as a member of the Federal Trade Commission. He was announced as the administration's choice to lead the CFPB nine months ago, before President Biden took office. Chopra succeeds Kathy Kraninger, who was appointed in the Trump administration after having served as a senior official at the Office of Management and Budget. She led the CFPB for two years before resigning in January.
Democratic senators look to 'LIFT' first-generation homeownership - A proposed 20-year government-backed mortgage program could allow new homeowners to build wealth twice as fast as they would with a traditional 30-year loan.However, industry participants question whether this is the best way to help minorities and low-income families create wealth through housing. The Low-Income First-Time Homebuyers Act, LIFT for short, sponsors are all Democrats: Sens. Mark Warner and Tim Kaine of Virginia; Raphael Warnock and Jon Ossoff of Georgia; and Chris Van Hollen of Maryland.
Fannie Mae: Mortgage Serious Delinquency Rate Decreased in August - 
Fannie Mae reported that the Single-Family Serious Delinquency decreased to 1.79% in August, from 1.94% in July. The serious delinquency rate is down from 3.32% in August 2020.These are mortgage loans that are "three monthly payments or more past due or in foreclosure".The Fannie Mae serious delinquency rate peaked in February 2010 at 5.59% following the housing bubble, and peaked at 3.32% in August 2020 during the pandemic.By vintage, for loans made in 2004 or earlier (1% of portfolio), 4.47% are seriously delinquent (down from 4.82% in July). For loans made in 2005 through 2008 (2% of portfolio), 7.57% are seriously delinquent(down from 8.26%), For recent loans, originated in 2009 through 2021 (97% of portfolio), 1.46% are seriously delinquent (down from 1.57%). So Fannie is still working through a few poor performing loans from the bubble years.Mortgages in forbearance are counted as delinquent in this monthly report, but they will not be reported to the credit bureaus.
Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac extend multifamily forbearance indefinitely -The Federal Housing Finance Agency’s latest extension of forbearance on multifamily loansbought by government-sponsored enterprises Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac was put in place on Friday without a specified end date.So long as apartment owners with properties financed by Fannie and Freddie agreed to offer distressed tenants certain protections, borrowers with pandemic-related hardships can extend forborne payments on their loans for up to three months, according to the FHFA announcement. This is one of the first actions the FHFA and the GSEs have taken to extend a pandemic-related measure indefinitely. Previously, multifamily forbearance use was more limited, mostly commonly utilized to address natural disasters.
Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac modifications hit a 15-month high in 2Q --Single-family loan modifications at government-sponsored enterprises Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac rose nearly 45% between the first and second quarters of this year, rebounding to heights not seen since first-quarter 2020.A total of more than 16,000 adjustments to loan terms made for affordability purposes were completed in the second quarter, up from over 11,000 the previous fiscal period and 14,000 a year earlier, according to a Federal Housing Finance Agency report released Friday. The return to highs last seen just as the pandemic was getting underway shows GSE loan modifications have normalized as more people have exited forbearance plans. It also suggests that at least a small wave of mods exceeding pre-pandemic levels will follow asmany single-family plans expire.
FHFA weighs cutting price-adjustment fees on Fannie and Freddie loans -The Federal Housing Finance Agency is considering reducing risk-based fees on loans backed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac that critics say have priced many qualified and first-time homebuyers out of the conventional mortgage market.Acting FHFA Director Sandra Thompson said Thursday that the agency is weighing changes to the loan-level price adjustments enacted in 2008 to help the government-sponsored enterprises manage risk. Mortgage lenders, Realtors and housing experts have urged the FHFA for years to eliminate the fees that raise the cost of a home loan for many borrowers.
Weekly forbearance exits slow with mountain of expirations looming - The latest rate of declining mortgages in forbearance plans slowed but a major drop-off is on the horizon.Loans in pandemic-related forbearance fell by 18,000 for the seven days ending Sept. 21, according to Black Knight. This marked a weekly decrease of 1.4% and brought the total outstanding mortgages to 1.578 million, or 3% of all the 53 million active home loans in the market. Nearly a third of those face the end of their protection periods in the near future, said Andy Walden, Black Knight’s vice president of market research.“More than 460,000 plans are still slated for review for extension or removal over the final week of September, with some 300,000 set to reach their final expirations based on current allowable forbearance term lengths,” Walden said in a blog post. “This could lead to significant movement in volumes entering early October.”
Freddie Mac: Mortgage Serious Delinquency Rate decreased in August Freddie Mac reported that the Single-Family serious delinquency rate in August was 1.62%, down from 1.74% in July. Freddie's rate is down year-over-year from 3.17% in August 2020.Freddie's serious delinquency rate peaked in February 2010 at 4.20% following the housing bubble, and peaked at 3.17% in August 2020 during the pandemic. Mortgages in forbearance are being counted as delinquent in this monthly report, but they will not be reported to the credit bureaus.This is very different from the increase in delinquencies following the housing bubble. Lending standards have been fairly solid over the last decade, and most of these homeowners have equity in their homes - and they will be able to restructure their loans once (if) they are employed. Also - for multifamily - delinquencies were at 0.12%, down from 0.15% in July, and down from the peak of 0.20% in April 2021.
MBA Survey: "Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Decreases to 2.96%" --Note: This is as of September 19th. From the MBA: Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Decreases to 2.96% The Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) latest Forbearance and Call Volume Survey revealed that the total number of loans now in forbearance decreased by 4 basis points from 3.00% of servicers’ portfolio volume in the prior week to 2.96% as of September 19, 2021. According to MBA’s estimate, 1.5 million homeowners are in forbearance plans.The share of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac loans in forbearance decreased 3 basis points to 1.44%. Ginnie Mae loans in forbearance increased 3 basis points to 3.42%, and the forbearance share for portfolio loans and private-label securities (PLS) decreased 4 basis points to 6.91%. The percentage of loans in forbearance for independent mortgage bank (IMB) servicers decreased 1 basis point relative to the prior week to 3.24%, and the percentage of loans in forbearance for depository servicers decreased 4 basis points to 3.06%.“The share of loans in forbearance continued to decrease last week, dropping below 3 percent for the first time since March 2020,” said Mike Fratantoni, MBA’s Senior Vice President and Chief Economist. “However, there was a slight increase in the forbearance share for Ginnie Mae loans, and this increase was seen for both depository and IMB servicers. New forbearance requests and re-entries continue to run at a higher rate for Ginnie Mae loans as well as for portfolio and PLS loans, which include many delinquent FHA, VA, and USDA loans that have been bought out of Ginnie Mae pools.”This graph shows the percent of portfolio in forbearance by investor type over time. Most of the increase was in late March and early April 2020, and has trended down since then.The MBA notes: "Total weekly forbearance requests as a percent of servicing portfolio volume (#) remained the same relative to the prior week at 0.05%."
MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest Weekly Survey From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey: Mortgage applications decreased 1.1 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending September 24, 2021.... The Refinance Index decreased 1 percent from the previous week and was 0.4 percent higher than the same week one year ago. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 1 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 2 percent compared with the previous week and was 12 percent lower than the same week one year ago.“Increased optimism about the strength of the economy pushed Treasury yields higher following last week’s FOMC meeting. Mortgage rates in response rose across all loan types, with the benchmark 30- year fixed rate reaching its highest level since early July 2021,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Associate Vice President of Economic and Industry Forecasting. “The increase in rates – mostly later in the week – led to a decrease in both purchase and refinance applications, with a prominent decline in government loan applications. Conventional loan applications increased, driven by a rise in conventional refinances. This was perhaps a sign that some borrowers reacted to higher rates and decided to refinance.”Added Kan, “With home-price appreciation continuing to run hot, increasing more than 19 percent annually in July, applications for larger loan amounts continue to outpace lower-balance loans. The average loan size for a purchase application reached $410,000, its highest level since May 2021.”...The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($548,250 or less) increased to 3.10 percent from 3.03percent, with points increasing to 0.34 from 0.30 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans.The first graph shows the refinance index since 1990.With low rates, the index remains elevated.The second graph shows the MBA mortgage purchase index. According to the MBA, purchase activity is down 12% year-over-year unadjusted.Mortgage Rates Increasing - With the ten year yield close to 1.50%, and based on an historical relationship, 30-year rates should currently be around 3.4%. Mortgage News Daily reports that the most prevalent 30 year fixed rate is now at 3.13% for top tier scenarios. So mortgage rates are a little lower than expected. The graph shows the relationship between the monthly 10 year Treasury Yield and 30 year mortgage rates from the Freddie Mac survey. Currently the 10 year Treasury yield is at 1.48%, and 30 year mortgage rates were at 2.88% according to the Freddie Mac survey last week (should increase in the report this week). The record low in the Freddie Mac survey was 2.65% in the week ending January 7, 2021 (Survey started in 1971). Freddie Mac has a similar graph here with a linear fit (using data since 1990). Using their formula, 30 year rates would also be around 3.34%. If the ten year yield rises to 2.0%, 30 year mortgage rates will probably increase to around 3.8% (still historically very low). This increase in rates will slow refinance activity, but probably have little impact on purchase activity. Finally, here is a graph from Mortgage News Daily (MND) showing 30 year fixed rates from three sources (MND, MBA, Freddie Mac) since 1971. Mortgage rates are just above the all time record low. If you go to MND and you can adjust the graph for different time periods.
Home prices jump by record amount -Home prices in the U.S. rose at record pace in July, as buyers bid up prices in a limited-supply market.The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20-city home price index increased 19.9 percent in July compared to the same month in 2020, marking the biggest increase since record-keeping began in 2000. The gains follow a 19.1 percent year-over-year jump in June.Prices hit all-time highs in July in 19 of 20 the cities analyzed. The one outlier city was Chicago, where prices tracked sit at just 0.3 percent below their 2006 peak.Home sales have increased this year, largely because of low mortgage rates and individuals seeking more space to live in amid the pandemic. Sales of existing homes increased by 16 percent in the first eight months of 2021 compared to the same period last year, and they're up 12 percent compared to a comparable period in 2019, according to The Associated Press. Phoenix, San Diego and Seattle all reported the highest year-over-year increases among the 20 cities observed in July, according to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices.Phoenix saw a 32.4 percent year-over-year price increase, followed by San Diego at 27.8 percent and Seattle at 25.5 percent.The increased prices are making it more difficult for younger potential buyers to purchase homes. As a result, first-time homebuyers decreased to 29 percent last month, which was the lowest rate tracked since January 2019, according to the National Association of Realtors (NAR).
Case-Shiller: National House Price Index increased 19.7% year-over-year in July -- S&P/Case-Shiller released the monthly Home Price Indices for July ("July" is a 3 month average of May, June and July prices).This release includes prices for 20 individual cities, two composite indices (for 10 cities and 20 cities) and the monthly National index.From S&P: S&P Corelogic Case-Shiller Index Reports Record High 19.7% Annual Home Price Gain In July: The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 19.7% annual gain in July, up from 18.7% in the previous month. The 10-City Composite annual increase came in at 19.1%, up from 18.5% in the previous month. The 20-City Composite posted a 19.9% year-over-year gain, up from 19.1% in the previous month. Phoenix, San Diego, and Seattle reported the highest year-over-year gains among the 20 cities in July. Phoenix led the way with a 32.4% year-over-year price increase, followed by San Diego with a 27.8% increase and Seattle with a 25.5% increase. Seventeen of the 20 cities reported higher price increases in the year ending July 2021 versus the year ending June 2021.... Before seasonal adjustment, the U.S. National Index posted an 1.6% month-over-month increase in July, while the 10-City and 20-City Composites both posted increases of 1.3% and 1.5%, respectively. After seasonal adjustment, the U.S. National Index posted a month-over-month increase of 1.5%, and the 10-City and 20-City Composites both posted increases of 1.4% and 1.5%, respectively. In July, all 20 cities reported increases before and after seasonal adjustments. “July 2021 is the fourth consecutive month in which the growth rate of housing prices set a record, “The National Composite Index marked its fourteenth consecutive month of accelerating prices with a 19.7% gain from year-ago levels, up from 18.7% in June and 16.9% in May. This acceleration is also reflected in the 10- and 20-City Composites (up 19.1% and 19.9%, respectively). The last several months have been extraordinary not only in the level of price gains, but in the consistency of gains across the country. In July, all 20 cities rose, and 17 gained more in the 12 months ended in July than they had gained in the 12 months ended in June. Home prices in 19 of our 20 cities now stand at all-time highs, with the sole outlier (Chicago) only 0.3% below its 2006 peak. The National Composite, as well as the 10- and 20-City indices, are likewise at their all-time highs. “July’s 19.7% price gain for the National Composite is the highest reading in more than 30 years of S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller data. This month, New York joined Boston, Charlotte, Cleveland, Dallas, Denver, and Seattle in recording their all-time highest 12-month gains. Price gains in all 20 cities were in the top quintile of historical performance; in 15 cities, price gains were in the top five percent of historical performance. The first graph shows the nominal seasonally adjusted Composite 10, Composite 20 and National indices (the Composite 20 was started in January 2000).
Zillow Case-Shiller House Price Forecast: National Index Growth to Increase Slightly to 20.0% in August --
The Case-Shiller house price indexes for July were released this morning. Zillow forecasts Case-Shiller a month early, and I like to check the Zillow forecasts since they have been pretty close. From Matthew Speakman at Zillow: July 2021 Case-Shiller Results & Forecast: Scorching Hot: The slow rise in inventory that marked the beginning of summer wasn’t enough to cool the sizzling market, with the already rapidly rising Case-Shiller indices hitting the gas accelerating into the middle of the year instead of tapping the brakes. .. Home price growth remained scorching hot as the housing market entered the dog days of summer, but data released in the weeks since indicate cooler days in the months to come. With mortgage rates still near historic lows, competition for the relatively few for-sale homes remain very stiff and home prices continue to rise sharply as a result. But the tight market conditions that have fueled the skyrocketing prices are finally showing signs of loosening. For-sale inventory levels charted their fourth consecutive monthly increase in August, and sellers appear to be taking a less aggressive approach when putting their homes on the market. Annual growth in list prices peaked in the spring and price cuts are becoming more common. And while still-strong price growth continues to present challenging conditions for many would-be buyers, the softening market conditions do appear to be offering some home shoppers a reprieve. Home sales volumes improved in August and applications for home purchase mortgages – a leading indicator of sales activity – has risen in four of the last five week to reach its highest level since April. Price growth remains about as hot as ever, but the housing market is gradually retreating towards a more balanced state. Monthly and annual growth in August as reported by Case-Shiller is expected to accelerate from July in all three main indices. S&P Dow Jones Indices is expected to release data for the June S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices on Tuesday, October 26. The Zillow forecast is for the year-over-year change for the Case-Shiller National index to be at 20.0% in August, from 19.7% in July.
A few comments on the Seasonal Pattern for House Prices – McBride - 
A few key points:
1) There is a clear seasonal pattern for house prices.
2) The surge in distressed sales during the housing bust distorted the seasonal pattern.
3) Even though distressed sales are down significantly, the seasonal factor is based on several years of data - and the factor is now closer to normal (second graph below).
4) Still the seasonal index is probably a better indicator of actual price movements than the Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA) index.
For in depth description of these issues, see Jed Kolko's article from 2014 (currently Chief Economist at Indeed) "Let’s Improve, Not Ignore, Seasonal Adjustment of Housing Data"
Note: I was one of several people to question the change in the seasonal factor (here is a post in 2009) - and this led to S&P Case-Shiller questioning the seasonal factor too (from April 2010). I still use the seasonal factor (I think it is better than using the NSA data).This graph shows the month-to-month change in the NSA Case-Shiller National index since 1987 (through July 2021). The seasonal pattern was smaller back in the '90s and early '00s, and increased once the bubble burst. The seasonal swings declined following the bubble, however the recent price surge changed the month-over-month pattern.
The Home ATM - by Bill McBride - During the housing bubble, many homeowners borrowed heavily against their perceived home equity - jokingly calling it the “Home ATM” - and this contributed to the subsequent housing bust, since so many homeowners had negative equity in their homes when house prices declined. The large amount of equity extraction raised concerns at the Federal Reserve, and former Fed Chair Alan Greenspan and Fed economist James Kennedy researched theSources and Uses of Equity Extracted from Homes and released a quarterly estimate of MEW.I had previously developed a simple model of MEW and it tracked the estimates from Kennedy and Greenspan very closely (more at bottom).First, here is the quarterly increase in mortgage debt from the Federal Reserve’s report since 2000. In the mid ‘00s, there was a large increase in mortgage debt associated with the housing bubble.In Q2 2021, mortgage debt increased $223 billion, the largest quarterly increase since 2006. Note the almost 7 year of declining mortgage debt as distressed sales (foreclosures and short sales) wiped out a significant amount of debt.However, some of this debt is being used to increase the housing stock (purchase new homes), so this isn’t all MEW.Second, this graph shows household real estate assets and mortgage debt as a percent of GDP. Note this graph was impacted by the sharp decline in Q2 2020 GDP. Mortgage debt is up $573 billion from the peak during the housing bubble, but, as a percent of GDP it is at 49.6%, down significantly from the peak of 73.3% of GDP during the housing bubble. This means most homeowners have large equity cushions in their home, and some MEW is not a concern. The following data is calculated from the Fed's Flow of Funds data (released last Thursday) and the BEA supplemental data on single family structure investment. This is an aggregate number, and is a combination of homeowners extracting equity - hence the name "MEW" - and normal principal payments and debt cancellation (modifications, short sales, and foreclosures). For Q2 2021, the Net Equity Extraction was $142 billion, or 3.15% of Disposable Personal Income (DPI) . This is a sharp increase compared to recent years, but is nothing like the amount of equity extraction during the housing bubble as a percent of DPI. During the housing bubble we saw several quarters with MEW above 8% of DPI.This graph shows the net equity extraction, or mortgage equity withdrawal (MEW), results, using the Flow of Funds (and BEA data) compared to the Kennedy-Greenspan method. MEW was negative for a number of years, but has picked up again following the onset of the pandemic.The bottom line is the recent increase in MEW is not concerning - it is far less as a percent of disposable personal income than during the bubble, and most homeowners have substantial equity.
Housing Inventory Sept 27th Update: Inventory Down Slightly Week-over-week, Up 41% from Low in early April - This inventory graph is courtesy of Altos Research. As of September 24th, inventory was at 433 thousand (7 day average), compared to 568 thousand for the same week a year ago. That is a decline of 23.8%. Compared to the same week in 2019, inventory is down 55% from 963 thousand. A week ago, inventory was at 436 thousand, and was down 23.8% YoY. Three weeks ago inventory was at 437 thousand (the peak for the year so far). Seasonally, inventory bottomed in April (usually inventory bottoms in January or February). Now inventory may be peaking for the year. Inventory was about 41.1% above the record low in early April.: Usually inventory peaks in the Summer, and then declines into the Fall. Will inventory follow the normal seasonal pattern, or will inventory continue to increase over the coming months? This will be important to watch for house prices and housing activity. Mike Simonsen discusses this data regularly on Youtube. Altos Research has also seen a significant pickup in price decreases - now well above the level of a year ago - but still below a normal rate for September.
NAR: Pending Home Sales Increased 8.1% in August -From the NAR: Pending Home Sales Recover 8.1% in August -- Pending home sales rebounded in August, recording significant gains after two prior months of declines, according to the National Association of Realtors®. Each of the four major U.S. regions mounted month-over-month growth in contract activity. However, those same territories reported decreases in transactions year-over-year, with the Northeast being hit hardest, enduring a double-digit drop.The Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI), a forward-looking indicator of home sales based on contract signings, increased 8.1% to 119.5 in August. Year-over-year, signings dipped 8.3%. An index of 100 is equal to the level of contract activity in 2001....Month-over-month, the Northeast PHSI rose 4.6% to 96.2 in August, a 15.8% drop from a year ago. In the Midwest, the index climbed 10.4% to 115.4 last month, down 5.9% from August 2020.Pending home sales transactions in the South increased 8.6% to an index of 141.8 in August, down 6.3% from August 2020. The index in the West grew 7.2% in August to 107.0, however still down 9.2% from a year prior.This was well above expectations of a 1.3% increase for this index. Note: Contract signings usually lead sales by about 45 to 60 days, so this would usually be for closed sales in September and October.
Construction Spending unchanged in August - 
From the Census Bureau reported that overall construction spending was "virtually unchanged": Construction spending during August 2021 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $1,584.1 billion, virtually unchanged from the revised July estimate of $1,584.0 billion. The August figure is 8.9 percent above the August 2020 estimate of $1,455.0 billion. During the first eight months of this year, construction spending amounted to $1,034.5 billion, 7.0 percent above the $966.7 billion for the same period in 2020.Private spending decreased and public spending increased:Spending on private construction was at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $1,242.2 billion, 0.1 percent below the revised July estimate of $1,243.7 billion. ...In August, the estimated seasonally adjusted annual rate of public construction spending was $341.9 billion, 0.5 percent above the revised July estimate of $340.3 billion.This graph shows private residential and nonresidential construction spending, and public spending, since 1993. Note: nominal dollars, not inflation adjusted.Residential spending is 16% above the bubble peak (in nominal terms - not adjusted for inflation).Non-residential spending is 10% above the bubble era peak in January 2008 (nominal dollars), but has been weak recently.Public construction spending is 9% above the peak in March 2009, but weak recently. The second graph shows the year-over-year change in construction spending.On a year-over-year basis, private residential construction spending is up 24.3%. Non-residential spending is down 2.3% year-over-year. Public spending is unchanged year-over-year.Construction was considered an essential service during the early months of the pandemic in most areas, and did not decline sharply like many other sectors. However, some sectors of non-residential have been under pressure. For example, lodging is down 30.7% YoY, multi-retail down 2.0% YoY (from very low levels), and office down 4.2% YoY. This was below consensus expectations of a 0.3% increase in spending, however construction spending for the previous two months was revised up slightly.
Hotels: Occupancy Rate Down 11.0% Compared to Same Week in 2019 -- Note: The year-over-year occupancy comparisons are easy, since occupancy declined sharply at the onset of the pandemic, so CoStar is comparing to 2019.From CoStar: STR: US Hotel Occupancy Stays Flat Week Over Week: U.S. hotel occupancy remained relatively flat week over week, while average daily rate rose, according to STR‘s latest data through September 25.
September 19-25, 2021 (percentage change from comparable week in 2019*):
• Occupancy: 63.2% (-11.0%)
• Average daily rate (ADR): $133.69 (-2.0%)
• Revenue per available room (RevPAR): $84.54 (-12.8%)
A week after eclipsing 1 million for the first time since the earliest days of the pandemic, group demand rose again to almost 1.3 million for the week. At the same time, group ADR moved past $200 for the first time since February 2020.The following graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four week average. The red line is for 2021, black is 2020, blue is the median, dashed purple is 2019, and dashed light blue is for 2009 (the worst year on record for hotels prior to 2020). The Summer months had decent occupancy with solid leisure travel, and occupancy was only off about 7% in July and August compared to 2019. But it is uncertain what will happen over the next couple of months with business travel. Usually weekly occupancy increases to around 70% in the weeks following Labor Day due to renewed business travel.
Personal Income increased 0.2% in August, Spending increased 0.8% - The BEA released the Personal Income and Outlays report for August: Personal income increased $35.5 billion (0.2 percent) in August according to estimates released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Disposable personal income (DPI) increased $18.9 billion (0.1 percent) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $130.5 billion (0.8 percent).Real DPI decreased 0.3 percent in August and Real PCE increased 0.4 percent; goods increased 0.6 percent and services increased 0.3 percent. The PCE price index increased 0.4 percent. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 0.3 percent. The August PCE price index increased 4.3 percent year-over-year and the August PCE price index, excluding food and energy, increased 3.6 percent year-over-year.The following graph shows real Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) through August 2021 (2012 dollars). Note that the y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the change. The dashed red lines are the quarterly levels for real PCE. Personal income was slightly below expectations, and the increase in PCE was above expectations.Using the two-month method to estimate Q3 PCE growth, PCE was increasing at a 0.3% annual rate in Q3 2021. (using the mid-month method, PCE was increasing at 2.2%). This follows a sharp increase in PCE in Q2.
Incomes Got Chewed Up by Inflation. Americans Spent Heroically on Goods, But Not on Services. Eviction Moratoriums & Forbearance Implicated - - Before taking inflation into account, personal income from all sources – from wages, interest, dividends, rental income, transfer payments such as unemployment compensation, stimulus checks, and Social Security benefits, etc. – rose by 0.2% in August from July. But after taking inflation into account, it’s uglier: Inflation-adjusted – or “real” – personal income fell by 0.2% in August from July, to an annual rate of $17.8 trillion (in 2012 dollars), according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis on Friday.The spikes in the chart were produced by the three waves of stimulus payments and other piles of funds that were handed out by the government; they created the biggest distortions in consumer income and spending ever. What’s now left behind is the worst bout of inflation in 30 years, that is eating into income: “Real” personal income without transfer payments fell by 0.3%in August and fell below the pre-pandemic level of February 2020, to an annual rate of $14.17 trillion (in 2012 dollars). This is personal income from labor, interest, dividends, rental property, etc. but without transfer payments from the government, such as unemployment benefits, stimulus checks, Social Security benefits, welfare benefits, etc. It should have grown as more people got jobs, and wages increased for many jobs. The green line shows the pre-pandemic trend. It’s tough getting beaten up by the worst bout of inflation in 30 years: On the spending front:
- Consumers still spent heroic amounts on goods, but inflation is taking a serious bite out of their “real” spending.
- “Real” spending on durable goods continues to drop from the stimmie-spike, largely due to auto sales, which plunged in recent months due to the collapse in auto inventories.
- “Real” spending on nondurable goods ticked up to a record of dizzying magnitude, still powered by working from home, which shifted spending to the supermarket.
- “Real” spending on services was well below pre-pandemic levels, in part perhaps due to eviction moratoriums and mortgage forbearance; rents and the interest on loans are part of spending on services.
Before inflation, consumer spending jumped 0.8% for the month to an annual rate of $15.9 trillion.After inflation, consumer spending rose 0.4% for the month, to an annual rate of $14.2 trillion, but only undoing the drop in July, and has remained in the same narrow range since October 2020.These are still huge amounts that consumers spent, and consumers are still flush with money from the myriad of pandemic-era fiscal and monetary stimulus, from forgivable PPP loans to stock market gains, and they’re still spending bravely. The green line shows the pre-pandemic trend. It’s tough to outspend this type of inflation:
Real Disposable Income Per Capita in August - With the release of this morning's report on August's Personal Incomes and Outlays, we can now take a closer look at "Real" Disposable Personal Income Per Capita. At two decimal places, the nominal 0.07% month-over-month change in disposable income is cut to -0.33% when we adjust for inflation. This is a decrease from last month's 1.1% nominal and 0.7% real decreases. The year-over-year metrics are 4.1% nominal and -0.15% real. Post-Great recession, the trend was one of steady growth, but generally flattened out in late 2015 with increases in 2012 and 2013. As a result of COVID pandemic stimulus measures, major spikes can be seen in April 2020, January 2021 (a December 2020 payment), and March 2021. The first chart shows both the nominal per capita disposable income and the real (inflation-adjusted) equivalent since 2000. This indicator was significantly disrupted by the bizarre but predictable oscillation caused by 2012 year-end tax strategies in expectation of tax hikes in 2013 and more recently, by COVID stimulus. The BEA uses the average dollar value in 2012 for inflation adjustment. But the 2012 peg is arbitrary and unintuitive. For a more natural comparison, let's compare the nominal and real growth in per-capita disposable income since 2000. Nominal disposable income is up 114% since then. But the real purchasing power of those dollars is up 42%.
Fertilizer Prices Soar Near 2008 Highs on Supply Shocks, Concerns Sprout Over Sourcing Enough for 2022 U.S. Corn Acres - The fertilizer industry is swarmed with Black Swan events. From the impacts of Hurricane Ida to political and climate issues entangled in a cobweb of production slowdowns in Europe and China, the Black Swan events continue to stack up. According to Josh Linville of StoneX Group, on Monday, the Chinese government effectively banned phosphate exports through June 2022. The news comes as China's production was already throttled by climate emission concerns from production plants. The impact is already being seen with prices, as China accounts for almost one-third of the world phosphate trade. The phosphate ban is just the latest in a series of events that are leading to a supply shock for fertilizer ahead of the 2022 growing season. And that supply shock is creating a price spike that can only compare to 2008, with concerns the most recent strains could cause prices to surpass the record-high fertilizer prices farmers saw in 2008. “In 2008, we had a little bit more of a lead up to it,” says Linville. “And we started from a slightly higher price. We started the 2008 saga closer to probably $350 a (metric) tonne NOLA urea, and we spiked out about $825. So, we are not at the historic highs yet, even though it feels like it. We're not quite there. The problem with this one, though, is back in 2008, it was all demand driven. We never had problems finding supply, it was just, 'What price are you willing to pay to get your hands on it?' This one is much more supply driven.”The supply-driven factors continue to add up. In addition to a spike in shipping costs, energy prices are soaring this week, with natural gas prices spiking to more than $6 per metric million British thermal unit (mmbtu), nearing the 2014 peak. It’s a factor that could drive up costs for nitrogen even further this year as the supply issues seem to be appearing from nearly every angle, with a laundry list of issues impacting fertilizer availability and prices. “Hurricane Ida destroyed production down in the Delta,” says Linville. “We have inland production points that are having problems because of repairs that were made during the COVID situation. We've got China, the world's largest urea producer, who has cut exports because they're keeping it at home for their producers. You've got European production having issues because of natural gas price. There is serious, serious concern. We've been crying wolf for a lot of years that 'Hey, there may be a season we can't find product.' But we always find a way. This one has a lot of the markings that say this could be the nightmare.”
September Vehicles Sales Decreased to 12.2 Million SAAR --Wards Auto released their estimate of light vehicle sales for September this evening. Wards Auto estimates sales of 12.18 million SAAR in September 2021 (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate), down 6.7% from the August sales rate, and down 25.2% from September 2020. This was well below the consensus estimate of 13.4 million SAAR.This graph shows light vehicle sales since 2006 from the BEA (blue) and Wards Auto's estimate for September (red).The impact of COVID-19 was significant, and April 2020 was the worst month.After April 2020, sales increased, and were close to sales in 2019 (the year before the pandemic). However, sales have decreased recently due to supply issues.
Ford plans biggest new manufacturing investment ever in Tennessee - The Ford F-150 Lightning is unveiled in May will be one of the battery-powered pickups to be made at a new $5.6 billion assembly plant near Memphis. The new truck called the F-150 Lightning can go up to 300 miles per charge, with a starting price of just under $40,000. (AP Photo/Carlos Osorio)In the biggest single business investment in Tennessee history, Ford Motor Co. plans to build its first totally new assembly plant in more than a half century northeast of Memphis to make electric-powered pickup trucks.Ford and Korean battery maker SK Innovation announced Monday they will build a $5.6 billion "Blue Oval City" in Stanton, Tennessee to build a battery plant and assembly facility for the next generation of all-electric F-series trucks. The automotive companies plan a similar $5.8 billion joint venture to build twin battery plants in central Kentucky as part of what Ford officials said will be the largest new manufacturing investment in Ford's 118-year history that is key to the company's shift from gas-powered to battery-powered vehicles in the future.Ford will be the fourth major auto manufacturer to locate an electric vehicle assembly operation in Tennessee since Nissan began making its all-electric Leaf in Smyrna in 2012 and has emerged as one of the biggest EV production sites in North America. Tennessee is already the top state in the Southeast and the third biggest in the country for electric vehicle production, and the Volunteer State could emerge as a top state for the growing battery-powered transportation industry.
Headline Durable Goods Orders Up 1.8% in August - The Advance Report on Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories, and Orders released today gives us a first look at the latest durable goods numbers. Here is the Bureau's summary on new orders: New orders for manufactured durable goods in August increased $4.6 billion or 1.8 percent to $263.5 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today. This increase, up fifteen of the last sixteen months, followed a 0.5 percent July increase. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 0.2 percent. Excluding defense, new orders increased 2.4 percent. Transportation equipment, up three of the last four months, led the increase, $4.2 billion or 5.5 percent to $80.8 billion. Download full PDFThe latest new orders number at 1.8% month-over-month (MoM) was better than the Investing.com 0.7% estimate. The series is up 18.1% year-over-year (YoY). If we exclude transportation, "core" durable goods was up 0.2% MoM, which was below the Investing.com consensus of 0.5%. The core measure is up 15.6% YoY.Core Capital Goods New Orders (nondefense capital goods used in the production of goods or services, excluding aircraft) is an important gauge of business spending, often referred to as Core Capex. It is up 0.5% MoM and up 13.7% YoY. For a look at the big picture and an understanding of the relative size of the major components, here is an area chart of Durable Goods New Orders minus Transportation and Defense with those two components stacked on top. We've also included a dotted line to show the relative size of Core Capex.
Boeing boosts U.S. durable-goods orders, but shortages still a drag on the economy - The increase in flying and rebound at Boeing gave a boost to durable-goods orders in August, but ongoing supply shortages held back automakers and and remain a drag on the nation’s economic recovery. Orders for durable goods leaped 1.8% last month and business investment also rose for the sixth month in a row, the government said Monday. Economists polled by the Wall Street Journal had forecast a 0.6% increase.The government also revised its July report to show a sizable increase in bookings instead of a decline.The increase in business orders was somewhat exaggerated last month, however. Boeing got another big flush of orders for its 737 Max jets and other planes.Bookings rose a scant 0.2% if transportation is excluded. The numbers are seasonally adjusted.The manufacturing side of the economy is not as big as it once was, but it still plays a big role in how fast the U.S. expands and is an important bellwether. The good news is that manufacturers still have plenty of demand, a sign of a healthy economy.The biggest problem for manufacturers is getting critical supplies and finding enough skilled workers to staff their plants. Material and labor shortages are likely to persist at least until the end of the year and restrain an otherwise rapid U.S. recovery. Orders for new commercial airplanes soared 78% in August and drove most of the increase in bookings for U.S.-made durable goods — products designed to last at least three years.Orders for expensive airplanes tend to be lumpy from month to month, however, and are not the best gauge of how Americans manufacturers are doing.Automakers, for their part, would be able to sell more cars if they could make enough of them. A global shortage of computer chips has slowed production and scared off some buyers. New orders dropped 3.1% in August.New orders were softer outside transportation.Bookings rose for electrical equipment and fabricated metal parts used in an array of consumer and business goods.Yet orders fell for computers, machines and primary metals that are integral to the production of manufactured goods.Business investment, on the other hand, was robust. They increased 0.5% in August and increased for the sixth month in a row.These so-called core orders are viewed by investors as a signal of future business prospects — and prospects look good. Business investment has risen almost 14% in the past year. The initially reported 0.1% decline in durable-goods orders in July was revised up to show a 0.5% increase.
China Is Blocking Its Airlines From Buying "Tens Of Billions Of Dollars" In U.S. Made Boeing Airplanes --In what should serve as a wakeup call for the Biden administration about the climate of trade between the U.S. and China (but won't), China is reportedly blocking its domestic airlines from doing business with Boeing.U.S. Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo made the revelation on Tuesday, according to Reuters, stating that Chinese airlines were being prevented from buying "tens of billions of dollars" in U.S. made airplanes.Raimondo also pointed out that China wasn't living up to its promises made in 2020 to buy U.S. goods. Raimondo commented on Tuesday: "I don't know if Boeing is here. ... There's tens of billions of dollars of planes that Chinese airlines want to buy but the Chinese government is standing in the way."She went into depth on a National Public Radio broadcast, also on Tuesday, stating: "The Chinese need to play by the rules. We need to hold their feet to the fire and hold them accountable." Recall, Boeing had previously urged the U.S. government to keep hostility toward Beijing as a result of its human rights violations separate from trade relations. Now, it appears we know why. Boeing Chief Executive Dave Calhoun said toward the end of Q1 2021: "I am hoping we can sort of separate intellectual property, human rights and other things from trade and continue to encourage a free trade environment between these two economic juggernauts. We cannot afford to be locked out of that market."Meanwhile Boeing, obviously with its finger on the pulse of its largest customers, came out an raised its forecast for China's aircraft demand for the next 20 years last week. Chinese airlines will need 8,700 new airplanes through 2040, Boeing estimated. That amounts to $1.47 trillion in aircraft. China's aviation authority was the first to ground the Boeing 737 MAX and China accounts for about 25% of Boeing's sales.
ISM® Manufacturing index increased to 61.1% in September The ISM manufacturing index indicated expansion in September. The PMI® was at 61.1% in September, up from 59.9% in August. The employment index was at 50.2%, up from 49.0% last month, and the new orders index was at 66.7%, unchanged from 66.7%. From ISM: Manufacturing PMI® at 61.1% September 2021 Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®"The September Manufacturing PMI® registered 61.1 percent, an increase of 1.2 percentage points from the August reading of 59.9 percent. This figure indicates expansion in the overall economy for the 16th month in a row after contraction in April 2020. The New Orders Index registered 66.7 percent, unchanged from the August reading. The Production Index registered 59.4 percent, a decrease of 0.6 percentage point compared to the August reading of 60 percent. The Prices Index registered 81.2 percent, up 1.8 percentage points compared to the August figure of 79.4 percent. The Backlog of Orders Index registered 64.8 percent, 3.4 percentage points lower than the August reading of 68.2 percent. The Employment Index returned to growth with a reading at 50.2 percent, 1.2 percentage points higher compared to the August reading of 49 percent. The Supplier Deliveries Index registered 73.4 percent, up 3.9 percentage points from the August figure of 69.5 percent. The Inventories Index registered 55.6 percent, 1.4 percentage points higher than the August reading of 54.2 percent. The New Export Orders Index registered 53.4 percent, a decrease of 3.2 percentage points compared to the August reading of 56.6 percent. The Imports Index registered 54.9 percent, an 0.6-percentage point increase from the August reading of 54.3 percent.”This was above expectations, and this suggests manufacturing expanded at a slightly faster pace in September than in August.
Dallas Fed Manufacturing: Expansion Continues in September -- This morning the Dallas Fed released its Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey for September. The latest general business activity index came in at 4.6, down 4.4 from 9 in August. All figures are seasonally adjusted. Here is an excerpt from the latest report: Texas factory activity continued to increase in September, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey. The production index, a key measure of state manufacturing conditions, rose three points to 24.2. The reading was well above average and indicative of solid output growth. Expectations regarding future manufacturing activity were slightly less positive in September. The future production index edged down to 41.8 but remained elevated, while the future general business activity index slipped four points to 11.5, a reading slightly below average. Other measures of future manufacturing activity showed mixed movements but remained solidly in positive territory.Monthly data for this indicator only dates back to 2004, so it is difficult to see the full potential of this indicator without several business cycles of data. Nevertheless, it is an interesting and important regional manufacturing indicator.
September Regional Fed Manufacturing Overview --Five out of the twelve Federal Reserve Regional Districts currently publish monthly data on regional manufacturing: Dallas, Kansas City, New York, Richmond, and Philadelphia.Regional manufacturing surveys are a measure of local economic health and are used as a representative for the larger national manufacturing health. They have been used as a signal for business uncertainty and economic activity as a whole. Manufacturing makes up 12% of the country's GDP.The other 6 Federal Reserve Districts do not publish manufacturing data. For these, the Federal Reserve’s Beige Book offers a short summary of each districts’ manufacturing health. The Chicago Fed published their Midwest Manufacturing Index from July 1996 through December of 2013. According to their website, "The Chicago Fed Midwest Manufacturing Index (CFMMI) is undergoing a process of data and methodology revision. In December 2013, the monthly release of the CFMMI was suspended pending the release of updated benchmark data from the U.S. Census Bureau and a period of model verification. Significant revisions in the history of the CFMMI are anticipated." Five out of the twelve Federal Reserve Regional Districts currently publish monthly data on regional manufacturing: Dallas, Kansas City, New York, Richmond, and Philadelphia. The latest average of the five for September is 17.7, up slightly from the previous month.
September Chicago PMI: Lowest Since February - The Chicago Business Barometer, also known as the Chicago Purchasing Manager's Index, is similar to the national ISM Manufacturing indicator but at a regional level and is seen by many as an indicator of the larger US economy. It is a composite diffusion indicator, made up of production, new orders, order backlogs, employment, and supplier deliveries compiled through surveys.The latest Chicago Purchasing Manager's Index, or the Chicago Business Barometer, fell to 64.7 in September - it's lowest since February, from 66.8 in August, which is still in expansion territory. Values above 50.0 indicate expanding manufacturing activity.Here is an excerpt from the press release:The Chicago Business BarometerTM, produced with MNI, slipped to 64.7 in September, the lowest level since February.Among the main five indicators, Order Backlogs saw the largest decline, followed by Supplier Deliveries and New Orders. Only Employment increased through the month. [Source] Let's take a look at the Chicago PMI since its inception.
Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Increase to 362,000 - The DOL reported: In the week ending September 25, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 362,000, an increase of 11,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 351,000. The 4-week moving average was 340,000, an increase of 4,250 from the previous week's unrevised average of 335,750. The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971.The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims increased to 340,000.The previous week was unrevised.Regular state continued claims decreased to 2,802,000 (SA) from 2,820,000 (SA) the previous week. Note (released with a 2 week delay): There were an additional 1,059,248 receiving Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (PUA) that decreased from 4,896,125 the previous week (there are questions about these numbers). This was a special program for business owners, self-employed, independent contractors or gig workers not receiving other unemployment insurance. And threre were an additional 991,813 receiving Pandemic Emergency Unemployment Compensation (PEUC) down from 3,644,555.Weekly claims were higher than the consensus forecast.
Time for Economists to Put Down Their Hammers and Put on Their Glasses (and Listening Caps) - Get ready to see lots of press on the ending of pandemic unemployment benefits in some parts of the country and what it shows about how much those benefits are to blame for keeping people from getting back to work. See, for example, this Wall Street Journal story which offers this analysis: The number of workers paid benefits through regular state programs fell 13.8% by the week ended June 12 from mid-May—when many governors announced changes—in states saying that benefits would end in June, according to an analysis by Jefferies LLC economists. That compares with a 10% decline in states ending benefits in July, and a 5.7% decrease in states ending benefits in September. But the dollar value of benefits paid and the number of people claiming unemployment benefits of course will decline in places that are ending benefits. This is mostly a direct effect on government and household budget constraints, rather than the (indirect) effects of the policy change on the marginal incentives people have to go back to work–the economist’s theory being that what matters is (simply) the generosity of unemployment benefits one can receive by remaining unemployed relative to the level of wages they can earn by going to work for their “highest bidder.” The current mismatch between the demand for leisure/hospitality workers and the available and willing supply of workers to these businesses is far more complicated than the marginal incentives story economists like to tell. In my first piece for Avison Young, I focus on the apparent surge in consumer demand for restaurants vs. the apparent lack of workers looking for work across certain localities, based on Google search data. Seeing which parts of the country have the most severe labor shortages, and contemplating the “why,” helps us to realize there are many harder-to-solve factors constraining labor supply right now:
- (i) the ongoing suspension of “seasonal” work visas for foreign visitors;
- (ii) the limited match-up of jobs to affordable and desirable housing/living arrangements for workers in resort areas;
- (iii) the fundamental demographics of full-time residents in ‘leisure towns’ working against an ‘at the ready’ supply of restaurant workers;
- (iv) prior workers in leisure/hospitality jobs having left the industry during the pandemic, switching industries and employers, or pulling out of the labor market entirely to care for family members;
- (v) the pace of the restart of “cooped-up demand” being simply too much for supply to catch up or keep up with.
I conclude with this cautionary but optimistic paragraph about how the economic recovery from the pandemic is not going to be as simple as following the policy prescriptions of old-school economists who only see “nails” in the aggregate employment statistics and hence keep relying on their “hammers” of market price and wage signals to get us back to “full employment” (a concept we don’t fully understand, by the way):
Report: New England Public Transit Programs Saw Huge Declines, But Stimulus Programs Filled Financial Gaps -- Ridership of public transit systems across the region plummeted during the first 14 months of the pandemic, according to a new report from the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston. In New Hampshire, Nashua’s public bus network served 339,000 fewer riders between March 2020 and June 2021 than expected, while the COAST network saw 295,000 fewer riders.Federal stimulus programs including the CARES Act, however, more than made up for lost revenues, the analysis found.“Seeing a dip in ridership does have a direct impact on how they are able to collect revenue to support their operations,” Riley Sullivan, a senior policy analyst at the Fed, said. “Luckily, the three stimulus packages that have been passed more than filled the existing gap that was generated.”The Federal Reserve Bank of Boston's study found ridership declined by more than 50% on most public transportation networks in the region.Sullivan, who authored the report, looked at 38 different transit systems across New England, including the MBTA, the region’s largest public transportation system. The analysis found that most transit systems received enough funding to cover their entire respective operating budgets for between one and two full years.That buffer of funding, Sullivan said, is now presenting policymakers and transit administrators with a choice.“Some people are arguing that it is possible that taking this money that they have right now, and possibly even more money if the bipartisan infrastructure bill passes, and really investing it in these transit systems could be the opportunity to get ridership back on these systems, possibly to pre-pandemic levels or at least close to it,” he said.But with ridership still well below those pre-pandemic levels on many public transit networks, Sullivan said some in the industry are advocating to save the already-received federal funds to cover future expected losses. “So that would be the slashing services side of the argument,” Sullivan said.
Port Authority adopts 25-year plan for projects totaling more than $3.7B - The Port Authority of Allegheny County’s Board adopted the agency’s first 25-year long-range transportation plan Friday.The 78-page document outlines 18 new projects totaling more than $3.7 billion, that will require an expenditure of $100 million a year in new operating costs. The projects range from a new bus depot to busway and light rail extensions.“Port Authority developed NEXTransit by incorporating the great work being done by our partners at all levels of government, from local to regional. No plan is created in isolation, and NEXTransit in particular was very focused on transparency and inclusiveness. We heard from a broad cross-section of county residents and stakeholders about the need to improve the quality of our existing services and to grow our system for more reliable, convenient, and safe travel,” she said in comments included in the long-range plan. NEXTransit’s goal is to build upon and improve the Port Authority’s current transportation network in an effort to attract more riders, enhance mobility, and support community development while promoting regional equity, sustainability and accessibility.
North Carolina hospitals group has sacked employees who refused vaccines - A North Carolina hospital system has terminated about 175 employees in the latest in a slew of healthcare terminations due to Covid vaccine mandates,reports the Washington Post.Novant Health, whose headquarters are about an hour and a half away from North Carolina’s capital city of Raleigh, announced on Monday that it had fired the employees for failing to comply with the organization’s mandatory vaccine policy.“We stand by our decision to make the vaccine mandatory as we have a responsibility to protect our patients, visitors and team members, regardless of where they are in our health system,” said Novant Health in a statement.The mass firing is one in a series of vaccine mandate terminations in the healthcare field. Previously, more than 150 healthcare workers employed at Houston Methodist Hospital were either fired or resigned after a hospital-wide vaccine mandate, one of the first vaccination requirements in a healthcare setting.Originally, approximately 375 unvaccinated employees from Novant Health, spanning 15 hospitals and 800 clinics, were suspended for not getting vaccinated and given five days to comply.About 200 of the suspended employees received the first dose of the coronavirus vaccine by Friday, tweeted Novant Health spokesperson Megan Rivers, meaning 99% of Novant Health’s approximately 35,000 employees followed the vaccine mandate. The rest of the workers were dismissed, though an exact number has not been confirmed. Novant Health had announced the vaccine mandate on 22 July and had given employees until 15 September to get vaccinated, according to the Post.
Hochul signs executive order for National Guard to fill hospital shortages due to vaccine hesitancy --Governor Kathy Hochul said she’s signing an executive order Monday allowing her to deploy the National Guard and bring in healthcare workers from out-of-state in case of staff shortages at hospitals and other care facilities due to an impending vaccine mandate deadline. “We’re taking all the steps preemptively in anticipation of what I call a preventable staffing shortage – still preventable, enough hours in a day,” Hochul said at a press conference in the Bronx Monday, Sept. 27. “I don’t have to do this if people will get vaccinated, there’s plenty of hours left in the day, but I also know I need to be prepared.”The directive will give the governor emergency powers to hire National Guard officers with medical training, retired healthcare workers whose licenses may have lapsed, and staff from outside New York to offset those workers who lose their job due to refusing to get vaccinated.“We’ve sent out the alarm, we have a pool of individuals who want to help,” Hochul said. “I would have much rather just been voluntary, but if I have to take steps to protect the people in terms of making sure I have replacements if necessary, I need to take those steps now and that executive order will do just that.”Hochul previously warned on Saturday that she was considering using her executive powers to bring in outside help to supplement the state’s health centers if need be.
Texas airline pilots warn that vaccine mandates could roil holiday flights - Unions representing pilots at Southwest Airlines and American Airlines, both based in Texas, are asking for exemptions to President Joe Biden's pending vaccine mandate, with one of those unions warning that holiday travel could be disrupted if they have to comply. In a Sept. 24 letter distributed to 15 officials across the FAA, Congress, DOT and others, the Allied Pilots Association, which represents 14,000 pilots at American, suggested mandatory vaccinations could cause disruptions across the aviation industry as airlines will be forced to “offer unpaid leaves of absence or, worse, implement mass terminations of unvaccinated pilots.” “While it is not yet certain which Executive Order will apply to America's airlines, it is apparent that we will be subject to a vaccine mandate in either instance,” wrote APA’s President Eric Ferguson. Ferguson instead said it is "essential" for the White House to make “alternate means of compliance” with the mandate available for professional pilots. Earlier this month, Biden announced that his administration will require private businesses with 100 or more employees to get the vaccine or get tested weekly. APA said some of its members were concerned about compliance because of documented medical reasons as well as “the potential for career-ending side effects” from the vaccine, citing stringent FAA medical tests pilots must pass in order to maintain their commercial pilots license. Alternative means, Ferguson said, could be regular testing of employees or “proof of natural immunity” for unvaccinated pilots that want to keep their jobs. But that would mean companies would need to foot the bill for the weekly testing requirement. Tests vary widely in price, from $20 to as much as $150, depending on the type of test (rapid vs. PCR, for instance).
1 in 4 Large Firms Has Vaccine Mandate for Employees, With More Coming: Gartner --One in four companies has instituted a vaccine mandate for U.S. workers, a sharp increase from last month, following President Joe Biden’s directive ordering large employers to require shots or weekly testing. Another 13% of companies plan to put a mandate in place, according to Brian Kropp, chief of human-resources research at consultant Gartner. The firm’s findings are based off a survey of roughly 400 organizations. Last month, just 16% of companies had vaccine mandates, Gartner data show, but Biden’s Sept. 9 directive has sent employers scrambling to come up with plans to adhere to the new rules. About 20% of the most recent survey’s respondents haven’t decided what to do yet, Kropp said, indicating that the remaining companies — about 40% — might ultimately decide to test their employees instead of enforcing inoculations. Companies expect to lose between 2% and 8% of their employees due to vaccine mandates, Gartner found, either because they quit or they’re terminated for noncompliance. “If you’re at 2%, you can live with that,” Kropp said in a panel discussion Thursday. “If it’s 8%, that could be a real problem, especially if it’s concentrated in one place or in one department.” The details of Biden’s emergency regulation, which will come from the Department of Labor’s Occupational Safety and Health Administration and applies to private employers with 100 or more workers, haven’t been developed yet. But companies “don’t have the luxury of waiting for the feds to write the rules,” Kropp said in the panel, sponsored by Protocol, a technology news site. Either choice presents pitfalls for managers. A vaccine mandate could result in staff defections and hurt a corporate culture, while testing raises thorny questions about how to administer, record and pay for all the swabbing. “Testing people weekly is a heavy lift,” Rachel Conn, an employment lawyer and partner at law firm Nixon Peabody LLP, said on the panel. “Just having a mandate could be easier potentially.”
Getting A Religious Exemption To A Vaccine Mandate May Not Be Easy. Here’s Why -- More and more employers are ordering workers to get vaccinated against COVID-19 without the option of getting tested instead. Now workers are pushing back.In Washington, D.C., more than 400 fire and emergency medical workers applied for religious exemptions to the city's vaccine mandate. In Los Angeles, roughly a quarter of the police department is expected to seek religious exemptions.How many of those requests will ultimately be approved is unknown. Already, some employers are taking a harder line than others. Under the law, employers have a lot of discretion when granting religious exemptions.The right to request a religious exemption stems from Title VII of the Civil Rights Act of 1964, which protects workers from discrimination on the basis of religion, among other things. The Equal Employment Opportunity Commission says employers must provide reasonable accommodations for workers who have sincerely held religious beliefs — unless doing so poses an undue hardship. There's a lot to unpack there. First, employers may probe whether an employee's religious belief is in fact sincere. They may ask questions about that employee's vaccination history or church attendance. If the employer determines the belief is not sincere, it may deny the exemption request.But even if an employee's religious belief is determined to be sincere, it's the employer who decides what the reasonable accommodation will be. It does not have to be the accommodation requested by the employee. What one employer deems to be reasonable, another may not. But already, there are employers who have been less accommodating.The NBA recently denied a religious exemption request from Golden State Warriors forward Andrew Wiggins, announcing that the athlete will not be able to play at any home games in San Francisco, which has a vaccine mandate for large indoor events, until he fulfills the city's vaccination requirements.United Airlines has granted religious exemptions to a small number of employees, but the reasonable accommodation the airline has provided is to put the employees on indefinite unpaid leave without regular benefits. A handful of United employees have sued, saying unpaid leave is not a reasonable accommodation but rather an adverse employment action.
An NBA Star & New York's Governor Show That Liberal COVID Discourse Is Devoid Of Science by Glenn Greenwald - It is virtually a religious belief in the dominant liberal culture that people who do not want the COVID vaccine are stupid, ignorant, immoral and dangerous. As large sectors of the population continue to question or disobey their COVID decrees, they have begun to make more explicit this condescending view. Liberals feel free to disparage them as "stupid” notwithstanding long-standing (though diminishing) racial disparities among this group. A CNN headline from last month told part of the story: “Black New Yorkers may have the lowest vaccination rates, but community groups refuse to give up.” Citing data from the city's health agency, the network reported that “citywide, just 28% of Black New Yorkers between the ages of 18 and 44 are fully vaccinated. The Hispanic community is the second-least fully vaccinated population in that age group, with 49% being fully vaccinated.” Two weeks ago, Bloomberg reported that while some of the unvaccinated are unable to get the vaccine (due to work pressures or health conditions), most of them are vaccine-hesitant by choice and continue to reflect racial disparities. Under the headline “U.S. Racial Vaccine Gaps Are Bigger Than We Thought: Covid-19 Tracker,” the news outlet reported: “the White vaccination rate is not as bad as it had seemed and Hispanic communities are lagging more than previously thought.” Yet liberal elites continue to call anyone who is unvaccinated "stupid,” ignorant and immoral. On Sunday, New York's Democratic Governor Kathy Hochul, when announcing her intent to use National Guard soldiers to replace health care workers fired for refusing the vaccine, told her audience: “yes, I know you're vaccinated, you're the smart ones.” She then said those who refuse to get the vaccine are not just stupid but have turned their back on God: “there's people out there who aren't listening to God and what God wants.” Gov. Hochul added that the vaccine “is from God to us and we must say, thank you, God,” and said to her "smart” vaccinated supporters: “I need you to be my apostles.” On September 16, CNN host Don Lemon maligned those who have chosen not to be vaccinated as "stupid,” "selfish,” filled with “ignorance,” and “not acting on logic, reason and science." He then issued this decree: “it’s time to start shaming them or leave them behind.” The attempt to equate being unvaccinated with stupidity and ignorance suffered a massive blow on Wednesday night when NBA star Jonathan Isaac was asked why he was hesitant to take the vaccine. Like many unions, the NBA's player union has refused a vaccine mandate, and Isaac, the 23-year-old player with the Orlando Magic who previously had and recovered from COVID, gave a stunningly compelling, informed, well-reasoned and thoughtful exposition on his rationale for not wanting the vaccine. Isaac also defended the right of individuals to make their own choice. One need not agree with his ultimate conclusion on the vaccine to see how groundless (and obnoxious) it is to claim that anyone who chooses not to take the vaccine — like him — is stupid, ignorant and primitive. I really encourage everyone to watch his two-minute master class in demonstrating why such a choice can, depending on one's circumstances, be perfectly rational:
The pandemic has taken an outsize toll on teenage girls of color. --Azariah Baker, a 15-year-old in Chicago, has been caring for her 70-year-old grandmother, who had a stroke at the start of 2020, as well as her 2-year-old niece. Her grandmother is the legal guardian for Azariah and her niece, but since the stroke, which left her extremely fatigued and with blurry vision and headaches, Azariah has done the heavy lifting at home.This summer, she worked at a grocery store, then came home each night to cook dinner. She often felt overwhelmed.“I remember one night, I was making dinner and I was having a panic attack,” Azariah said. “I was crying. I felt like I couldn’t breathe, and my heart was racing. But then my alarm went off for something in the oven,” and she put her own needs aside.Her story encapsulates the ways in which the pandemic has affected the lives of young women of color across the United States. Black and Hispanic youth were more likely to have lost a parent or a family member to Covid-19. They have fallen further behind in school than their white counterparts, and they had far higher unemployment rates last year than older adults and young white women, even during the summer, when youth employment typically goes up. Some of those who held on to or found new jobs became crucial breadwinners, because their family members were more likely to have been laid off.Black and Hispanic teenage girls were also more likely than white girls and their male counterparts to shoulder care responsibilitiesat home, according to a report by the Institute for Women’s Policy Research. At the same time, they were leading racial justice demonstrations across the country, most notably last summer, channeling their energy into confronting and changing systemic inequities.
Judge orders prison guards in California to be vaccinated - A federal judge ruled Monday that California prison guards and other facility employees will be required to get COVID-19 vaccines in the next two weeks. Judge Jon S. Tigar's ruling will impact 66,000 prison employees and any inmates working outside of the prisons, according to The San Francisco Chronicle. "Defendants have undertaken significant measures to combat the virus,” Tigar wrote in his ruling. "But the virus continues to infect the prison population, including incarcerated persons who have accepted the vaccine — one of whom recently died from the disease — and outbreaks create significant risks of harm beyond the risk of infection." Tigar added that more than 50,000 incarcerated people in California's state prisons had been infected with the coronavirus and that the virus's "dominant route" of entry into the prisons had been via staff. Currently, 76 percent of California's prisoners have been fully vaccinated, and 99 percent of prisoners have been offered the vaccine, a spokeswoman from the California Department of Corrections told The Hill. She added that 57 percent of prison staff were fully vaccinated.Yet this decision was opposed by the department."We are evaluating the court’s order at this time to determine next steps," California Department of Corrections press secretary Dana Simas said in an email statement to The Hill. "We respectfully disagree with the finding of deliberate indifference, as the department has long embraced vaccinations against COVID-19, and we continue to encourage our staff, incarcerated population, volunteers, and visitors to get vaccinated."
Alabama clears plan to use COVID-19 relief funds to build prisons - Alabama Gov. Kay Ivey (R) on Friday signed legislation enabling the state to use COVID-19 relief funds to build prisons. “Folks, this is a pivotal moment for the trajectory of our state’s criminal justice system,” Ivey said during an event where she signed bills enabling the state to use the funds. “Let me be clear, while more reform of the system can and does need to be addressed in the future — and I am committed to that as are many legislators — today’s bill signing on the construction part of this issue is a major step forward,” Ivey continued. The legislature opened a special session on Monday to consider a $1.3 billion construction plan to build three new prisons and renovate others. Of the funding, the state would use $400 million of its allocation from the $1.9 trillion American Rescue Plan to partially finance the projects. The legislature passed two bills on Friday allowing the state to move forward with the plan, according to The Associated Press. Ivey’s plan drew backlash from Democrats, who say that the coronavirus relief funds were not meant for prison reforms. Rep. Teri Sewell (D-Ala.) said she was “deeply disturbed” by the legislature’s plan. “To be clear, the current state of the Alabama prison system is abhorrent, but the use of COVID-19 relief funds to pay for decades of our state’s neglect is simply unacceptable,” Sewell said. “COVID-19 relief money should be used for COVID-19 relief. Period.” Rep. Jerry Nadler (D-N.Y.), who chairs the House Judiciary Committee, sent a letter to Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen asking her to prevent states from using the relief funds for prison construction. Ivey pushed back on Nadler on Tuesday, saying that the federal government should “worry more about avoiding the pending government shutdown and running the country.”
Rikers Island: “Humanitarian Crisis” with Dead Cockroaches, Urine and Feces, Plastic Bags in Lieu of Toilets, Lack of Food and Water; Guards Call in Sick to Escape Appalling Conditions, Covid Risk - There are many examples that show America cannot pretend to be a civilized country, and one of them is Rikers Island. The infamous detention center has been in crisis for year, and the situation has become visibly critical (no pun intended) as 12 inmates have died so far this year out of a total population of about 6,000. Mind you, no one is incarcerated at Rikers as the result of a conviction. They are instead being held either for having been charged with nearly always minor criminal act, awaiting a hearing, or for an allegation of a minor parole violation. Rikers is getting some overdue attention after years of neglect becauese some New York Congresscritters demanded that Mayor Bill de Blasio Do Something after two inmates died in one week. The facility has gone into crisis due to half-hearted reforms stalling and as we’ll explain below, Covid producing both higher levels of incarceration as judges go back into “lock ’em up” mode due to rising crime rates, and effective staffing levels collapsing as guards call in sick, either out of Covid fears1 or simply loathing how a terrible job has gotten even worse. Corey Stoughton, attorney-in-charge at the special litigation unit of the Legal Aid Society, describes Rikers as a 21st Century Newgate prison in a talk with New York Magazine: I think most people understand that jails and prisons are not pleasant places. But this is a level of depravity and inhumanity that is really shocking to imagine happening in the greatest city in the world. You have people who are warehoused in large rooms for days and even weeks at a time with no toilets or showers, defecating on the floor, urinating on the floor. Not getting access to regular food or adequate water. And for a population that has, really, an overwhelming number of medical and mental-health-care needs, not getting access to basic and necessary medical and mental-health care. And so that’s why we’ve seen [all the deaths] this year, two in the past week alone, and it’s because people who are sick can’t get doctors and die for lack of medical care, urgent medical care. And people are in mental-health crisis, self-harming and even dying by suicide, because basic protocols around mental-health screening and self-harm prevention are not being followed. Kalief Browder committed suicide in 2015, two years after having been detained for three years when the charge against him was eventually dropped. Kalief Browder was a 16 year old who had been accused of stealing a backpack from someone in the Bronx. And he was held on Rikers Island for three years and spent much of that time in solitary. So he was pretty much tortured during his time there. He was assaulted by correctional officers, assaulted by other detainees. He was the victim of what became known as “the program,” which meant if you defied a correction officer, they would allow other detainees to assault you. And so there was video of Kalief Browder being badly beaten by other detainees.
Dozens Of Massachusetts State Police Troopers Resigning Over COVID Vaccine Mandate, Union Says – The State Police Association of Massachusetts (SPAM) said dozens of troopers have submitted their resignation papers as a result of the state’s COVID vaccine mandate. The state is requiring all executive department employees to show proof of vaccination by October 17, or risk losing their jobs. About 20% of State Police employees are not vaccinated, according to the union’s attorney. A source told WBZ-TV on Monday that only one state trooper has told human resources that they would resign because of the vaccine mandate. The source also said there are others who spoke with HR to evaluate what their pensions would be if they chose to retire. Last week, a judge denied a request from the State Police union to put a hold on Gov. Charlie Baker’s vaccine mandate for troopers. The union released this statement following the judge’s decision: Throughout COVID, we have been on the front lines protecting the citizens of Massachusetts and beyond. Simply put, all we are asking for are the same basic accommodations that countless other departments have provided to their first responders, and to treat a COVID related illness as a line of duty injury. To date, dozens of troopers have already submitted their resignation paperwork, some of whom plan to return to other departments offering reasonable alternatives such as mask wearing and regular testing. The State Police are already critically short staffed and acknowledged this by the unprecedented moves which took troopers from specialty units that investigate homicides, terrorism, computer crimes, arsons, gangs, narcotics, and human trafficking, and returned them to uniformed patrol. The union, which represents 1,800 members, argued that the state needed to bargain with workers before implementing the mandate.
South Carolina Ban on Mask Mandates Blocked by Federal Judge -South Carolina’s ban on mask mandates in schools was blocked by a federal judge who said the benefits of masking significantly exceed the cost.A provision in South Carolina’s budget prohibited schools from requiring students to wear masks. Nine parents of children with disabilities and groups representing the disabled sued claiming the ban on mask mandates effectively excludes students with disabilities and those with underlying medical conditions from attending school, in violation of federal disability rights laws.
60 million in US relied on food banks in 2020 -- Sixty million people in the United States, nearly 1 in 5, received assistance from food banks and similar organizations in 2020 according to the nonprofit Feeding America, representing a 50 percent increase over the prior year. According to a research brief by The Conversation, the sharpest increase in the rate of food insufficiency was among so-called middle-income households, households that make $50,000 to $75,000 per year, rising from 0.98 percent to 1.48 percent. Food insufficiency increased among Americans at all income levels according to The Conversation’s analysis of Census Bureau survey data after April 23. American households earning less than $50,000 have the highest level of food insufficiency, with each lower income bracket tracking with a higher level, with 4.4 percent of those under $25,000 food insecure. That is, this is a problem that affects primarily the working class. Food insufficiency, according to the US Department of Agriculture (USDA), “is a more severe condition than food insecurity and measures whether a household generally has enough to eat. In this way, food insufficiency is closer in severity to very low food security than to overall food insecurity.” As defined by the USDA, “Food insecurity is the limited or uncertain availability of nutritionally adequate and safe foods, or limited or uncertain ability to acquire acceptable foods in socially acceptable ways.” The USDA reports that overall food insecurity has rose in the US from 9.5 percent of the population as of April 23, 2020, to 13.4 percent as of December 21, 2020. As of the end of August, according to the US Census Bureau’s weekly Household Pulse survey, more than 7 percent of all households and 9 percent of households with children said they sometimes or often did not have enough to eat. Feeding America also projected that 54 million Americans didn’t have enough food to eat in 2020, a 46 percent increase over 2019. As of March 2021 more than 42 million Americans received Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) benefits, an increase of 5 million from the previous March. While Congress passed a 15 percent increase to SNAP benefits at the end of last year, which it later extended, this is set to expire September 30, the end of FY 2021. A reassessment of the USDA’s “Thrifty Food Plan,” which is used to determine SNAP benefits, is set to take effect October 1 as a result of the 2018 Farm Bill, passed under the Trump administration, which stipulates a readjustment of payments for the first time since 2006 according to the USDA. The Thrifty Food Plan will translate into an average $11 monthly increase over the current assistance program, from $240 to $251, despite the end of some federal benefits to SNAP, though with inflation factored in, using 2020 to 2021 numbers on the Minneapolis Fed’s inflation calculator, it will actually amount to a 68 cent decrease. The average amount will drastically decrease in 2022 to $169 a month before inflation if remaining federal pandemic assistance provisions for SNAP are allowed to expire according to USDA, though the decrease in real terms is likely to be far larger as inflation is expected to continue and accelerate. According to the key findings section on a USDA study released before July 4 this year “88 percent of SNAP participants reported facing some type of barrier to achieving a healthy diet throughout the month.”
Hurricane Ida Continues to Impact Louisiana Students and Schools as Recovery Drags - As the accounting of, and recovery from, Hurricane Ida drags on, nearly 10% of all schoolchildren are still stuck at home as school systems and local officials struggle to recover from Hurricane Ida.The 70,000 students still unable to go back to school are mainly located in just five parishes in the southeastern part of the state. "It's kind of hard to comprehend the amount of damage," St. Charles Parish Superintendent Ken Oertling told state lawmakers Tuesday.Hurricane Ida, which intensified incredibly rapidly over exceptionally warm Gulf waters bore many of the hallmarks of climate change, which is caused by the extraction and combustion of fossil fuels.The financial toll of Hurricane Ida on local school districts is immense. Lafourche Parish alone faces an estimated $100 in damages, nearly two-thirds of its $160 million annual budget.Ida's impacts on Louisiana children's education goes beyond just school buildings of course. "Our students can't return, there is nowhere for them to live. [Whether they live in] apartment complexes, housing developments, trailer parks they haven't been able to return," Calcasieu Parish Superintendent Karl Bruchhaus told lawmakers
St. Charles, Lafourche school districts face $150 million in Ida damages Just two of the four school districts hardest hit by Hurricane Ida face repairs of about $150 million, superintendents told the Senate Education Committee. The two are the Lafourche Parish School District, $100 million in repairs; and the St. Charles School District, around $50 million. Lafourche Parish Superintendent Jarod Martin said that, for the sake of context, the district's annual budget is about $160 million. "We've got challenges and almost all of them are financial," Martin told the committee Tuesday. The Lafourche, St. Charles, Jefferson and Terrebonne school systems suffered the most damages when the Category 4 hurricane arrived on Aug. 29, state officials said. No damage estimates have been publicly disclosed for the Jefferson and Terrebonne districts. Martin said South Lafourche High School alone will require about $26 million to repair. In the meantime, he said, plans call for students to return to the school next month in classrooms that consist of bare sheetrock, concrete and light bulbs. "It will not look the way it did when we left," Martin said. Ken Oertling, superintendent of the St. Charles Parish school system, said damages there will range from $40 million to $50 million. Oertling said that, before the storm, all 10,000 or so students were given a Chromebook device in hopes their education could continue after the the storm. "That is not an option," he said. Oertling said families "are looking where they are going to get their next meal, do they have air conditioning in their house." Some students will have missed 42 days by the time they return to classes. "First and foremost Hurricane Ida was by far the most tragic and impactful event St. Charles has ever experienced," he told the committee. One of the thorniest topics will be whether damaged districts qualify for a waiver on required school minutes. State law limits such exceptions to just a few cases, such as when multiple schools have to operate in a single building. Martin said if he has to tell residents of Lafourche Parish that classes will continue until July, "I don't think that is going to be met well in the community." "It is going to be seen as not understanding what the community has been through," he said.
State lawmakers and Superintendents urge FEMA and GOHSEP to work faster together -(WAFB) - Some of the money to repair Louisiana schools damaged by Hurricane Ida is in the hands of the state. But it’s taking longer than expected to get the money in the hands of the school districts. The Senate Committee on Education heard from some of the superintendents from those coastal parishes about where they are in the recovery process. But each of them mentioned one thing that needs improving the most is the line of communication between federal, state, and local governments. While schools in Baton Rouge and some of the surrounding areas received minimal damage from Hurricane Ida, other school districts along the coast were not so lucky. The committee took turns hearing testimony from superintendents in Calcasieu, Lafourche, and St. Charles. Three areas received tremendous damage not only to their schools but to their student’s homes as well. “So, our students can’t return, there is nowhere for them to live. Apartment complexes, housing developments, trailer parks they haven’t been able to return,” said Calcasieu Parish Superintendent Karl Bruchhaus. According to State Superintendent Cade Brumley, nearly 70,000 students are out of school. To make things worse, the cost of repair for these districts is more than they can handle themselves. Forcing them to rely on state and federal assistance, but the money has yet to reach them. The Governor’s Office of Homeland Security and Emergency Preparedness said they have received some of the money from FEMA for the approved projects requested by these districts. But the districts themselves are still waiting for the money. Members of the committee agreed this was unacceptable. “Are they still holding it and waiting for you to finish this final review and say release the money,” asked Senator Bodi White (R) of Baton Rouge. “No sir it’s with us,” replied GOHSEP. “Can you write the superintendent a check on the small amount for the buses and the roof’s today, can you do that today,” asked Senator Cleo Fields (D) of Baton Rouge. “We’ll do everything we can to do that as soon as possible,” GOHSEP answered. It was clear the communication between GOHSEP, FEMA, and the school districts has been anything but satisfactory. Governor Edwards said his office is working to fix how long the process takes. Although Baton Rouge has not had to deal with these issues yet, the superintendents who showed up today wanted to make sure no school district has to deal with these issues if they’re the next ones to take a hit.
Majority in new poll would get COVID-19 vaccine for children under 12 - More than half of those surveyed in a new poll say they would have their children inoculated against the coronavirus if a vaccine were made available for those under the age of 12. A total of 55 percent of parents in the U.S. with children under 12 surveyed for a Gallup poll published on Tuesday say they would get their child vaccinated against the virus.Among adults in the poll who are vaccinated, 82 percent of parents say they would do the same for a child. Only 1 percent of parents who do not plan to get vaccinated themselves agreed, according to the survey firm. Along partisan lines, 83 percent of respondents who have children under the age of 12 and identify as Democrats indicated they would have their child vaccinated, the poll found. Half of the independents surveyed and 21 percent of Republicans said the same.More than 5.5 million children in the U.S. have tested positive for COVID-19 since the pandemic began, Gallup noted, citing data from the American Academy of Pediatrics and the Children's Hospital Association. Public health officials and local governments in several states have cited a lack of vaccines for children under 12 and rising case counts among the young as the justification for school mask mandates and vaccine requirements for teachers and school staff.
One month after schools reopened in Missouri, COVID-19 infections among children jump - Many school districts in Missouri began their school year on August 23. Since then, thousands of new cases among children have been reported, ensuring that COVID-19 will continue to spread and infect and even larger share of the population. As of September 26, more than 830,000 Missourians have tested positive for COVID-19 and more than 12,000 have died, with an average of 38 people succumbing to the disease every day. Johns Hopkins University released alarming data September 15 confirming that 1 in every 500 United States residents has died from COVID-19. There are officially more deaths in the US from the current pandemic than the total of Americans who were killed by the Spanish flu pandemic of 1918. Six children in Missouri have died from COVID-19 so far, with the most recent being a child from St. Louis who died the week of September 5. No further details were released about the child’s identity or condition of health upon contracting the virus. The American Academy of Pediatrics and the Children’s Hospital Association reports that for the first week of classes, a quarter of all new cases in Missouri were in children ages 0-17. About one in three children ages 12-17 in Missouri have been fully vaccinated. Nearly 34,000 children were confirmed to have contracted COVID-19 during the summer season. Some local health departments report that a third of new COVID cases are being diagnosed in children. Just over 53 percent of the population has received at least one vaccine dose; 64.4 percent of adults 18 and older have received at least one dose while those under 12, as in the rest of the country, remain ineligible for vaccination. Parents, teachers and students are being left to fend for themselves to try to mitigate rising COVID-19 infection rates which are being driven by the reopening of schools. St. Louis County Executive Dr. Sam Page released a preliminary report September 8 on new COVID-19 diagnoses at county school districts. For the public and private schools that had released data at the time, there were 373 student cases and 56 staff cases. And 1,318 people had to quarantine in response to these cases. The positivity rate among 10-14-year-old children was 16.2 percent, significantly higher than the overall average of 10 percent. This is a significant increase from before the start of the school year, when children made up 11.8 percent of Missouri cases. “These numbers reveal that the level of transmission among our children is much too high. It’s crucial that parents and educators take steps now to stop the transmission of COVID in schools,” Dr. Page said.
COVID-19 cases explode among Chicago students as schools remain open - Less than one month into the school year, cases of COVID-19 have exploded among students at Chicago Public Schools (CPS). Officially, the district has recorded 558 cases among students, and nearly 10,000 are currently in quarantine even with the district’s almost nonexistent testing and contact tracing. Despite the danger to children and educators, Chicago Mayor Lori Lightfoot, in line with the entire state Democratic Party, has insisted that schools are safe and must remain open for in-person learning, even though nearly all previously announced mitigation measures have been rescinded or remain a dead letter. In addition to the official student cases recorded by CPS, there have officially been 185 cases among educators and other staff. These numbers vastly understate the level of spread in schools. In some cases, it appears CPS is delaying adding known cases to its online tracker. While CPS claimed before the school year started that they would test students weekly, only three percent of CPS students have registered for testing, a consequence of the fact that the program has been opt-in and the district has made little effort to sign students up. In fact, the whole process of testing and quarantining is obviously designed to present bureaucratic hurdles to parents and students who might wish to be tested and to serve as a disincentive to report any positive tests or exposure. Many parents have reported on social media that CPS has sent messages that their children may have been exposed and should quarantine days after the fact, while teachers have reported being left in the dark about their students’ status. In what amounts to a punitive measure for quarantining students, they are denied an option for remote learning while away from school, and essentially given a packet of homework to complete on their own. Statewide data from the Illinois Department of Public Health (IDPH) paints a somewhat more accurate picture of the grim situation in schools, although it too likely understates the cases given limited testing and the abysmal state of contact tracing. According to IDPH data, the number of cases being recorded in young children aged 5-11, who are being forced back into school despite being ineligible for vaccines, has exploded in the current surge driven by the Delta variant. The week ending September 4 has been the worst so far, with 3,654 cases among this younger age group, 73 percent higher than the number of cases for that age group on January 9. Although cases declined somewhat for the week ending September 18, to 2,514, the level of infections for children too young to be vaccinated remains higher than during last year’s winter surge.
Ohio schools report more than 7,000 COVID-19 cases, slightly down from last week – Ohio schools again reported thousands of new coronavirus cases this week, but a slightly decreasing trend offers some light as the state’s Delta variant wave comes off an apparent peak. K-12 schools reported 7,564 cases to the Ohio Department of Health for the week ending Sunday, bringing the school year total to 45,808. This week’s cases are down from last week’s 9,827, which were fewer than the 10,682 a week before. Schools report cases among students and staff to ODH on Tuesdays, reflecting the week ending on the previous Sunday. ODH releases numbers on Thursdays at 2 p.m. ODH reports “new” and “cumulative” cases. Cases only move over to “cumulative” once the person is no longer COVID-positive. NBC4’s count of new cases every week reflects the change in “cumulative” cases. Just under half of the 2,766 schools that ODH tracks have reported at least one case this school year, which is less than two months in. 1,349 (49%) of schools, districts, private schools, vocational schools, preschools and other non-college have reported a case. That’s 48 more schools than last week. The median number of cases among schools with at least one infection is 12 cases, while the median number for school districts is 42 cases. 38,991 (85%) of Ohio’s school cases are students and 6,817 (15%) are staff members, which include teachers, administrators, coaches and support staff. Last school year, students were roughly 2 in 3 cases, and staff were 1 in 3. Cincinnati Public Schools, a district of more than 34,000 students, leads the state in cases with 891, ahead of Columbus City Schools at 569, which passed Toledo City Schools for second. Five Franklin County districts are in the top 11. Ninety-nine percent of Ohio’s public school students are in school five days a week, according to data last Thursday from the Ohio Department of Education. But just over 68% of students were in a district that requires masks for all or some students, which state officials attribute to the high level of COVID-19 cases in school. Gov. Mike DeWine has said he would like to take executive action to require masks in schools, but a state law passed this summer after overriding DeWine’s veto – Senate Bill 22 – stripped that power from the governor and gave it to the state legislature.
More than 200,000 children have been infected with COVID-19 in the US for five consecutive weeks - Hundreds of thousands of children are being infected with COVID-19 every week in the United States, driven by the spread of the highly infectious Delta variant and the reopening of schools to in-person learning throughout the country. According to the American Academy of Pediatrics (AAP), as of the week ending September 23, 2021, over 5.7 million children in the United States have tested positive for COVID-19 since the onset of the pandemic. The number of pediatric cases exceeded 200,000 for the fifth consecutive week. Over the past week, the number of infections, according to official figures, was 206,864, bringing the total over the last five weeks to 1,131,958. In other words, nearly 20 percent of all childhood COVID-19 cases since the beginning of the pandemic have occurred in just the last five weeks. And though pediatric cases account for 16 percent of all infections in the US since the pandemic began, they accounted for 26.7 percent of all cases this week. The AAP reports that 19 children died of COVID-19 over the past week, bringing the total death toll among children to 498. Nearly 20 percent of all child deaths, or 96 children, have occurred in the past five weeks. Overall, the number of pediatric cases and hospitalizations appears to be slowly declining. In the South, the recent epicenter of the pandemic, schools have been opened for at least two months, and the reported incidence of COVID-19 among children has declined slightly. However, the apparent decline is likely a consequence of how states are calculating pediatric cases in an effort to cover up the full extent of the pandemic among children to keep schools open. Texas has provided an age distribution for only three percent of confirmed cases, and this only through August 26. The state of New York does not give an age distribution. Alabama, Rhode Island, Missouri, West Virginia, and Hawaii have revised the definition of child cases, reducing the age cutoff. Massachusetts has also changed its definition of probable child cases, leading to a reduction in total case counts. Florida has stopped reporting child hospitalizations, and Nebraska no longer has a COVID-19 dashboard. The fact that the AAP is the only source of data on child infections is the product of a deliberate effort on the part of federal, state and local governments to cover up the true magnitude of the devastation caused by the pandemic, especially among children. While the official figures of child cases are declining slightly, the number of hospital admissions is continuing to trend upwards or has stabilized at a very high rate, which provides a more accurate measure of infections.
Dr. Eric Feigl-Ding: Exposing children to COVID is “Dangerous and morally reprehensible” - Eric Feigl-Ding (EFD): Yesterday I posted two graphs on a thread on Twitter. One of them is the Case Fatality Rate (CFR) in Florida by age group. The Delta wave swept through the state over the summer. The graph shows, since like early August, the CFR for kids under 16 has really increased. When you compare it to the entire pandemic period, it is around six to eight-fold higher in terms of actual deaths. [The Tweet reads: While kids die at a rate of 1 in 10,000 infected cases…that is quite high! Plus, it is 6-8-fold higher CFR recently during the #DeltaVariant wave than last 18 months before Delta! (Notice RED vs.BLUE). Dr. Feigl-Ding also highlighted the data from the American Academy of Pediatrics(AAP) that demonstrates children now make up close to 25 percent of all cases.]So, the CFR has definitely gone up recently. That’s because under Delta we know it’s much more severe. We know Delta is much more severe even outside of kids [the general population] from countless other studies and data points.Now, with these numbers, in a certain way you have to … how should I put it? I’m an epidemiologist, and we usually talk about relative risk and statistics, but that doesn’t capture people’s imaginations because it doesn’t peg to what they already know or already have an established moral principle about.Let’s take pediatric cancers. There are tons of different pediatric cancer associations, and no one has debates about whether kids should or shouldn’t be dying of cancer. It’s one of those bipartisan topics. To capture the public’s attention, you have to place it in that light.No one accepts pediatric cancers, right? If you say, “Kids shouldn’t be dying of cancer,” at a media conference or a hearing you would mostly get nods across the room. And then you add that pediatric cancers are the leading cause of death among children post infancy. In the US, among pediatric cancers there are about 1,200 deaths [per year] or so. You divide that by 52 weeks, that’s around 23 deaths a week.That is on par with what the US has seen among children dying of COVID-19. We’ve had over 100 deaths in the last five weeks, or about 20 deaths a week. And that data is coming from the American Academy of Pediatrics that has 45 states. With 50 states, it’s probably tied, if not higher, than the cancer deaths. But no one accepts pediatric cancer deaths as okay.[According to the National Cancer Institute, although cancer in children is rare, it is the leading cause of death by disease past infancy among children in the United States. In 2021, among children 0 to 19, an estimated 15,590 will be diagnosed with cancer,and 1,780 will die. Among those under 15, 10,500 will be diagnosed,and 1,190 are expected to die from their disease.] Consider even the news yesterday on NPR [National Public Radio] about recalling infant nursing pillows. No one accepts that we should learn to live with kids who die of being suffocated by pillows. No one says we need to learn to live with pediatric cancer deaths, right? It’s morally not acceptable in our society if we care about others around us.
Hundreds are quarantining in one of New Jersey’s biggest school districts.-- More than 800 students and staff members in one of New Jersey’s largest school districts are in quarantine because of possible exposure to the coronavirus, just three weeks after the district began the school year with a mask-optional policy.According to the Covid-19 tracker for the district, Toms River, at least 817 students and staff are at home after going into quarantine this week. The figure is equal to about 5.5 percent of the district’s student population and a little more than 1 percent of its staff.There have been 270 confirmed cases of the coronavirus — 236 among students and 34 among staff members — in the district this year. With about 14,600 students, Toms River, in Ocean County, hadthe sixth-largest student body in the state last year, according to enrollment data.Gov. Philip D. Murphy, a Democrat, said in June that school districts would be allowed to create their own mask-wearing policies after the Toms River district pushed back on the governor’s initial plans for a statewide school mask mandate in the fall.But in August, amid a surge in cases of Covid-19 fueled by the spread of the highly contagious Delta variant, Governor Murphyrequired mask-wearing once more — though he included an exemption for “extreme heat indoors.” The policy does not specify what constitutes “extreme heat.”Citing that exception, Toms River made masks optional for students and staff at the beginning of the school year. The district then began to require masks starting Sept. 20 after the heat and humidity were no longer considered excessive, Michael Kenny, a spokesman for the district, said.In a statement on Wednesday, the district said masks had been optional for only eight days at the start of the school year, and only in spaces where air conditioning was not available.“Generally speaking, our numbers are consistent with a community at high risk of transmission, as Ocean County currently is,” the district said.Mr. Kenny added that more than 70 students had been released from quarantine since Wednesday.The county’s case numbers remain high, though flat, according to an analysis by The New York Times, with an average of 215 cases reported per day. Forty-seven percent of Ocean County residents are fully vaccinated, compared with 64 percent of residents statewide.
More U.S. parents are willing to vaccinate their children, a survey finds. - A new survey found that more parents were willing to vaccinate their children in mid-September than were willing to do so in July, a shift that coincided with schools reopening in the middle of a wave of hospitalizations and deaths caused by the highly contagious Delta.The latest monthly survey about vaccine attitudes by the Kaiser Family Foundation also found that about one in four U.S. parents reported that a child of theirs had to quarantine at home because of a possible exposure to Covid-19 since the beginning of the school year.That is even as two-thirds of parents say they feel that their school is taking appropriate measures to contain the spread of the coronavirus.The survey found that 58 percent of parents say that schools should have comprehensive mask requirements, 35 percent say there should be no mask mandates at all, and 4 percent believe that only unvaccinated students and staff members should be compelled to wear masks, according to the report. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention recommended that all students, teachers and staff members in elementary and secondary schools wear masks.Kaiser conducted a nationally representative survey of 1,519 people from Sept. 13-22 — a time of surging Covid deaths — and it was mostly completed before Pfizer and BioNTech announced that their vaccine was safe and effective for children age 5 to 11. No vaccine is currently authorized in the United States for children under 12. Of those who were polled, 414 identified themselves as parents of children 17 or younger, and were included in the analysis of parents’ responses.The Pfizer vaccine, already in use for older children and adults, was authorized in mid-May for children age 12 to 15, and the report suggests that over time, parents of children in that age group and older are slowly becoming more comfortable with it. By the time of the September interviews, 48 percent said that their children age 12 to 17 had gotten at least one dose, up from 41 percent in July. According to federal data, 57 percent of that age group has received at least one dose. And parents of children age 5 to 11 increasingly report favoring the vaccine as well. Thirty-four percent of those parents said they would have their children vaccinated as soon as possible, up from 26 percent in July.
Missouri judge rejects attorney general's lawsuit seeking statewide ban on school mask mandates - A Missouri judge on Tuesday denied state Attorney General Eric Schmitt’s (R) motion for a preliminary injunction against a local school district's mask mandate, and also ruled that his recent lawsuit could not generally apply to all school districts in the state with similar mandates. Boone County Judge J. Hasbrouck Jacobs decided after a three-hour hearing that he would not grant Schmitt’s motion to block the mask mandates issued by Columbia Public Schools and other districts, the Kansas City Star reported. Schmitt filed a class action lawsuit late last month arguing that mask mandates are “not supported by the science and are an arbitrary and capricious measure.” The complaint specifically named Columbia Public Schools, as well as “public school districts and their boards of education,” and the “superintendents of the public school districts” imposing mask mandates. However, Jacobs said Tuesday that Schmitt, who is currently running for a U.S. Senate seat, could not file a single legal complaint against the mask mandates at various school districts. Instead, the attorney general would have to file a separate lawsuit for each individual district, the judge said. Grant Wiens, an attorney representing the Columbia school district, had argued in court Tuesday that “mask requirements that different districts put into place are all individualized to that district,” according to the Star. However, the ruling did not completely toss out the case, as Jacobs denied Columbia Public Schools’ motion to dismiss Schmitt’s lawsuit. Chris Nuelle, a spokesperson for the attorney general’s office, told The Hill, “Our lawsuit against the forced masking of school children will continue.” “We plan to aggressively pursue discovery in this case to show how bureaucrats have incessantly moved the goalposts to justify never ending restrictions and mask mandates,” he added.
Delaware mandates COVID-19 vaccines for all school staff -All teachers and staff at public and private schools in Delaware must get vaccinated against COVID-19 or submit to regular testing, Gov. John Carney (D) announced Tuesday. Carney and the Division of Public Health and Department of Education issued the vaccine mandate, which takes effect Nov. 1, by emergency regulation. The requirement additionally extends to all contractors and volunteers at K-12 schools across the state. “There’s no better way to prevent the spread of COVID-19, and keep all Delaware children in their classrooms, than to get vaccinated,” Carney said in a statement. “Our top priority has been to get all Delaware students back in school this fall. This new requirement will help keep them there and prevent regular disruptions to their learning,” Carney continued. “These vaccines are safe and extremely protective against COVID-19 infection and serious illness. I encourage all Delawareans to get your shot and help us finally put an end to this pandemic.”The Delaware State Education Association said in a statement it supported the governor’s mandate, which keeps students and teachers in school while aiming to ensure their safety.“All scientific evidence shows us that this vaccine is effective and prevents the risk of transmission while lessening the symptoms if the disease is transmitted,” the statement read. “So, we urge our members to get vaccinated.” Approximately 60 percent of Delaware residents have received one dose of a coronavirus vaccine while 54.6 percent are fully vaccinated,according to state data.
The U.S. says Texas’ ban on school mask mandates may violate disabled children’s rights. - The Justice Department signaled its support on Wednesday for the families of children with disabilities in Texas who are suing to overturn Gov. Greg Abbott’s ban on mask mandates in the state’s schools. The department filed a formal statement on Wednesday with the federal district court in Austin that is hearing one of the lawsuits, saying that the ban violates the rights of students with disabilities if it prevents the students from safely attending public schools in person, “even if their local school districts offered them the option of virtual learning.”The move signals a willingness by the federal government to intervene in states where governors and other policymakers haveopposed mask mandates, using federal anti-discrimination laws like the Americans with Disabilities Act. The Justice Department has often used similar statements of interest to step in to cases involving civil rights.“Frankly I’m thrilled,” said Juliana Longoria, 38, of San Antonio. Her daughter, Juliana Ramirez, 8, is one of the plaintiffs in a suit against the ban filed in August by the advocacy group Disability Rights Texas. “It gives me a lot more hope that the federal government is serious about protecting our children,” Ms. Longoria said.Lawsuits against Mr. Abbott’s ban have also been filed in Texas state courts, and have sometimes found initial success, but the State Supreme Court has repeatedly sided with the governor by allowing his ban to remain in effect. The case in which the Justice Department intervened on Wednesday is federal, and is scheduled to go to trial next week. The governor’s office did not immediately respond to requests for comment, nor did the Texas Education Agency or the office of Ken Paxton, the state attorney general. Mr. Paxton has defended the ban in state court, saying that Texas law gives the governor broad powers to guide the state through emergencies like the Covid-19 pandemic. But the Justice Department said in its statement that the civil rights protections afforded by federal anti-discrimination laws applied “even during emergencies.”
A national school boards group asks Biden to protect its members from anti-mask protesters. Describing a “crisis affecting America’s public schools,” a group representing tens of thousands of school board members urged President Biden on Thursday to take action to protect them from rising threats and violence by members of the public, including opponents of coronavirus mask mandates.In a letter, the National School Boards Association called for federal law enforcement agencies to investigate and prevent violence, citing numerous instances this year of school board meetings being interrupted by anti-mask protesters or members of extremist groups.Jen Psaki, the White House press secretary, on Thursday called the threats to school board members “horrible” and said the administration took the security of public servants and elected officials seriously, though such issues generally fell to local law enforcement.In Mendon, Ill., this month, a 30-year-old man was arrested and charged with battery and disorderly conduct after striking a school board member at a meeting. Two school board meetings in Michigan were disrupted when a person yelled and gave a Nazi salute in protest of mask requirements, the group said.Arguing that the actions could amount to “a form of domestic terrorism and hate crimes,” the association asked for agencies including the F.B.I. to investigate whether the incidents violated counterterrorism or any other federal laws.“These threats and acts of violence are affecting our nation’s democracy at the very foundational levels, causing school board members — many who are not paid — to resign immediately and/or discontinue their service after their respective terms,” the group wrote. Once staid, sparsely attended affairs, school board meetings have turned chaotic across the United States in recent weeks, with demonstrators challenging mask requirements, testing guidelines and other measures imposed by school districts to prevent the spread of the coronavirus as students nationwide return to in-person learning.The school boards association, which represents more than 90,000 school board members across 14,000 districts, said that threats had also been sent in the mail and via social media platforms. A letter mailed to a school board in Ohio, carrying the return address of a local neighborhood association, warned that “we are coming after you” for imposing a mask requirement “for no reason in this world other than control. And for that you will pay dearly.”The school boards group asked the U.S. Postal Service to intervene to stop threatening letters and cyberbullying against students, school boards, district officials and other educators. It also asked Mr. Biden to increase collaboration between federal law enforcement agencies and local authorities to more closely monitor such threats.“As the threats grow and news of extremist hate organizations showing up at school board meetings is being reported,” the association wrote, “this is a critical time for a proactive approach to deal with this difficult issue.”
COVID-19 outbreaks and staff resignations deepen crisis in Southwest US schools - With the reopening of schools across the United States, there has been an explosion of outbreaks of COVID-19, and the Southwest is no exception. Rather than implement shutdowns and remote learning, school districts are plowing ahead with either homicidal “herd immunity” policies or so-called mitigation measures. Meanwhile, teachers and staff have quit in droves amid a disturbing trend of concealing needed information on COVID-19 from the public.
- In Arizona, only 30 percent of the state’s 215 school districts provide COVID-19 dashboards, and just one county health department out of 15 in the state, Pima County, publicly monitors active COVID-19 cases by district. There is no comprehensive and transparent picture of where the virus is being contracted. A ban on mask mandates inserted into the Arizona state budget by the Republican-majority state legislature with the approval of the state’s Republican governor, Doug Ducey, has been challenged in court.
- Nevada, with a Democratic governor and legislature, is pursuing a mitigation approach which is entirely unable to prevent infections. Following the early August reopening of schools, some were forced to resume distance learning due to COVID-19 outbreaks, only to resume in-person instruction by the end of the month. Predictably, cases grew, and on September 21, state agency Nevada Health Response issued a statement calling for mask mandates in all counties from September 24-30.
- Utah instituted a law for the 2021-22 school year forbidding schools from changing to virtual learning in the event of a COVID-19 outbreak without the approval of Governor Spencer Cox, the President of the State Senate, the State Speaker of the House, all Republicans, as well as the State Superintendent of Education. The legislature also banned schools from imposing mask mandates, with the governor claiming, “masks are not as effective as most of the pro-mask crowd are arguing.”
- New Mexico has more than 1,000 openings for public school teachers for 2021-22. School districts are trying to lure teachers, substitutes, educational assistants, bus drivers and other staff with various incentives. Santa Fe Public Schools has held two job fairs recently, and New Mexico school districts are using federal pandemic dollars to attract teaching assistants, who currently earn around $25,000 a year, into teaching..
- Across Texas, school districts have experienced shortages of teachers as the danger of COVID-19 in the schools receives a minimal response due to the “herd immunity” policies of the state’s governor and legislature. Houston Independent School District, the largest in the state, reported 700 unfilled teacher slots at the start of the year, more than seven times higher than its average of less than 100 vacancies in previous years. As the number of COVID-19 cases at Texas schools continues to grow—52,000 among students and over 13,000 among staff since the school year began—teachers have experienced burnout, stress, overwork and fear from the reckless policy of keeping schools operating at all costs. And, as in other states, accurate and up-to-date information is getting harder to find.
For-Profit Charter Schools Provide an Entryway for Private Investors to Exploit Public Education - Charter school industry lobbyists, who appear to have lost a fight in the U.S. House of Representatives over an appropriations bill that cuts federal funding to charter schools operated by for-profit businesses, are rolling out a campaign to defend their taxpayer revenues in the U.S. Senate, but federal lawmakers may wish to consider new evidence of how for-profit charter enterprises introduce potential harms into public education.One such potential harm, according to an in-depth examination conducted by Our Schools, stems from for-profit charter school operators partnering with private investors intent on turning quick profits from public dollars meant for educating children.Our Schools examined the relationship between Pansophic Learning, owner of the Accel Schools chain of for-profit charter schools, and Safanad Limited, a private equity firm, originating in the Middle East, with extensive investment holdings in K-12 education, senior living, and other public sector-related enterprises.What Our Schools found was that for-profit businesses like Pansophic Learning are providing entryways for wealthy investors from abroad to flood the U.S. with money to buy up struggling taxpayer-funded enterprises and put into place elaborate business schemes and networks of interrelated companies that hide their profiteering while doing little to improve the quality of services to the public.A request for comment regarding Pansophic’s relationship with Safanad and the partnership’s potential for conflicts of interest that was left as a press inquiry at the Pansophic website did not receive a reply. The combination of for-profit operators backed by private equity has become prevalent in other publicly funded sectors that have traditionally been operated by federal and/or state governments or nonprofit organizations. And the results have not been beneficial to the public or the individuals the publicly funded system was intended to serve.
This is the most-banned book in America -With Banned Books Week coming to a close, the American Library Association’s (ALA) annual list of the most frequently banned books reveals the 10 most commonly challenged books in the United States.To compile the list, the ALA tracked and analyzed the challenges brought against libraries, schools, and universities of 273 books for the ones that faced the most challenges and bans. In 2020, the most challenged book was “George” by Alex Gino. “George,” a 2015 novel about the life of a transgender fourth grader, has been “challenged, banned, and restricted for LGBTQIA+ content, conflicting with a religious viewpoint, and not reflecting ‘the values of our community,’” according to the ALA. "When I write a book about someone who is transgender … just simply someone who is transgender — they're not doing anything, they just are transgender — and that book gets banned?” Gino told Yahoo Life. “That is my existence being so scary and so reprehensible and so monstrous, that I cannot be shown to children." The other nine books that made the top 10 list this year include “Stamped: Racism, Antiracism, and You” by Ibram X. Kendi and Jason Reynolds; “All American Boys” by Jason Reynolds and Brendan Kiely; “Speak” by Laurie Halse Anderson; “The Absolutely True Diary of a Part-Time Indian” by Sherman Alexie; “Something Happened in Our Town: A Child’s Story About Racial Injustice” by Marianne Celano, Marietta Collins, and Ann Hazzard, illustrated by Jennifer Zivoin; “To Kill a Mockingbird” by Harper Lee; “Of Mice and Men” by John Steinbeck; “The Bluest Eye” by Toni Morrison; and “The Hate U Give” by Angie Thomas.
COVID-19 cases surge at US colleges and universities, administrations seek to hide the disaster Two months into the reopening of US colleges and universities for in-person learning, a disaster of mass infections is unfolding. US educational institutions have been transformed into incubators for the further spread of the coronavirus. Outbreaks of COVID-19 have occurred on virtually every major college or university campus in the US. The universities are doing everything in their power to skew the data and obscure the severity of the campus outbreaks. The following is a small sampling of this criminal debacle. The University of Texas San Antonio, which had 31,698 students enrolled in the spring semester, has only performed 2,210 tests on students, and a mere 35 on staff. The test positivity rate was recorded as 4.66 percent. Given these figures, the 123 officially reported COVID-19 cases since the start of classes on August 23 almost certainly represents a significant undercount of the actual number of cases. The University of Texas at Dallas (UTD), which had almost 29,000 students enrolled in fall 2020, has seen more than 293 recorded cases. Suspiciously, information on test data such as positivity, number of tests, and other data is absent despite UTD having completed mandatory testing of all students as of September 10. The University of Texas at Austin has recorded 341 cases since the start of classes on August 25, with a 3.17 percent positivity rate. At Texas A&M University, which has almost 67,000 students, 2,970 cases have been reported since August 30 and a 7 percent positivity rate. One student has died, 20-year-old Kirstyn Katherine Ahuero. The callousness of the university administration—which continued in-person learning and did not bother to institute even token safety measures such as masking—led to protests by students who chanted, “Not another Aggie!” and “Mask mandates are a must, and A&M is unjust!” When Duke University opened for the fall semester, the administration boasted the highest vaccination rate among major North Carolina universities. Within the first two weeks of opening, 349 students and 15 employees tested positive for the virus. All but eight were fully vaccinated.
20-year-old North Carolina college student dies from COVID-19 - Tyler Gilreath, a 20-year-old student from the University of North Carolina-Wilmington (UNCW), died of complications from COVID-19 on September 27, in yet another tragic exposure of the myth that young people are left unscathed by the deadly virus. Gilreath’s mother, Tamara Demello, repeatedly encouraged her son to get vaccinated over the summer, but he insisted that he was young, healthy, and did not have any pre-existing conditions, and therefore would be fine without vaccination. Eventually, Gilreath agreed to get vaccinated once he reached UNCW, as a present for his mother’s 60th birthday. But he never got a chance. Gilreath tested positive for COVID-19 on August 20, two days after moving into his dorm at the university, his mother told the News and Observer. For three weeks, Gilreath was “extremely sick,” running a 102-degree fever, vomiting, and experiencing other major symptoms. By September 7, Gilreath tested negative for the coronavirus, and his fever and other symptoms had mostly abated. However, he still suffered from headaches and lethargy. After going to the doctor’s office, Gilreath discovered that he had a sinus infection. In the days before he could get a prescription for antibiotics filled, the infection had combined with a staph infection and started to move toward his brain, Demello said. On the night of September 20, Gilreath told his mother he was feeling significant weakness on the right side of his body, as if he was losing control of it. His roommates took him to the emergency room around 10 p.m. and by 1:30 a.m. surgeons had to create an opening in his skull to drain excess fluid and reduce swelling in his brain. Demello drove down to Wilmington, and Gilreath’s father drove from Ohio. Doctors told them the sinus infection had gone to their son’s brain, and had ruptured. Over the course of the week, Gilreath’s condition got worse, as he lost brain function. His mother said he briefly regained consciousness and looked her in the eyes while squeezing her hand, acknowledging that he knew she was there. But the swelling in his brain continued to worsen. After one more operation, at around 3 a.m. on Sept. 25, doctors informed Gilreath’s parents that he likely would not survive. A CAT scan revealed there was no blood flow to his brain and the damage was irreversible.
Students Don’t Know What Files And Folders Are, Professors Say - University students in courses from engineering to physics are having to be taught what files and folders are, The Verge reports, because that's not how they've grown up using computers. Whenever they need a file, they just search for it. "I tend to think an item lives in a particular folder. It lives in one place, and I have to go to that folder to find it," astrophysicist Catherine Garland said. "They see it like one bucket, and everything's in the bucket."Strange as it may seem to older generations of computer users who grew up maintaining an elaborate collection of nested subfolders, thanks to powerful search functions now being the default in operating systems, as well as the way phones and tablets obfuscate their file structure, and cloud storage, high school graduates don't see their hard drives the same way."Students have had these computers in my lab; they’ll have a thousand files on their desktop completely unorganized," Peter Plavchan, an associate professor of physics and astronomy at George Mason University, told The Verge. "I'm kind of an obsessive organizer ... but they have no problem having 1,000 files in the same directory. And I think that is fundamentally because of a shift in how we access files."As The Verge points out, "The first internet search engines were used around 1990, but features like Windows Search and Spotlight on macOS are both products of the early 2000s [...] While many of today's professors grew up without search functions on their phones and computers, today's students increasingly don’t remember a world without them." This isn't necessarily a bad thing, or a reason to recoil in horror because how dare the youth of today do things differently, why the very idea. "When I was a student, I'm sure there was a professor that said, 'Oh my god, I don't understand how this person doesn’t know how to solder a chip on a motherboard,'" Plavachan said. "This kind of generational issue has always been around."
Kamala Harris Under Fire For Nodding In Affirmation As Student Accuses Israel Of "Ethnic Genocide" - Video has emerged of a Tuesday event inside a Virginia college classroom wherein Vice President Kamala Harrisappeared to nod in agreement as a student accused Israel of committing "ethnic genocide" against Palestinians. Harris responded to the student by saying she was "glad" the student spoke out, adding that "your truth cannot be suppressed". Israeli media was quick to pick up on the episode which happened during an event focused on voting rights at George Mason University, and is likely to create a diplomatic headache for the Biden administration as Israeli leaders will demand answers. During a Q&A session following a class that Harris had visited, the female student began by saying "a lot of taxpayer money is allocated for funding the military, whether it’s in backing Saudi Arabia or in Palestine."The student then referenced the extra $1 billion allocated in a defense spending bill passed by Congress days ago, which 'the Squad' had tried to strip out of the bill, but which later a tearful Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez had voted "present" on, leaving questions of why she switched her "no" vote last minute. Here's what the student said:"But then just a few days ago there were funds allocated to continue backing Israel, which hurts my heart because it’s an ethnic genocide and a displacement of people — the same that happe ned in America — and I’m sure you’re aware of this," she student explained to a nodding Kamala Harris.Harris nodded at the student throughout the remarks, with the student ending by saying she had to express herself and speak out."I’m glad you did," Harris began in response. "This is about the fact that your voice, your perspective, your experience, your truth should not be suppressed and it must be heard, right? And one of the things we’re fighting for in a democracy, right?"
Harvard MBA Students Move Online as Breakthrough Cases Climb -- Harvard Business School moved all first-year and some second-year MBA students to remote learning this week amid a “steady rise” in breakthrough Covid-19 infections, despite high vaccination rates and frequent testing. Online classes will be in place at least until Oct. 3 and the school has asked students to eliminate unmasked activities while indoors, Harvard said Monday in an emailed statement. Harvard is also increasing the frequency of testing to three times a week.
Pfizer Launches Final Study For COVID Drug That's Suspiciously Similar To 'Horse Paste' - Another piece US anti-Ivermectin puzzle may have emerged. On Monday, Pfizer announced that it's launching an accelerated Phase 2/3 trial for a COVID prophylactic pill designed to ward off COVID in those may have come in contact with the disease.Coincidentally (or not), Pfizer's drug shares at least one mechanism of action as Ivermectin - an anti-parasitic used in humans for decades, which functions as a protease inhibitor against Covid-19, which researchers speculate "could be the biophysical basis behind its antiviral efficiency."Lo and behold, Pfizer's new drug - which some have jokingly dubbed "Pfizermectin," is described by the pharmaceutical giant as a "potent protease inhibitor."As Zero Hedge readers might recognize, that's exactly what ivermectin, the prophylactic used for a number of reasons in both humans and animals, does. And unlike Pfizer's experimental drug, ivermectin already may have saved hundreds of thousands of lives from India to Brazil.We aren't the only ones to have put this together, as twitter users have commented on the similarities. The timing - which coincides with the whole "horse dewormer" smear campaign - just seems odd.The similarity between Pfizer's upcoming offering and Ivermectin has not gone unnoticed.
Sixty Facebook groups focused on ivermectin discussion - At least 60 public and private Facebook groups were focused on discussing ivermectin to treat COVID-19, according to left-leaning watchdog Media Matters for America.Of the groups, 25 were shut down after Media Matters flagged them to Facebook, the group said in a Tuesday email accompanying the release of their report. The remaining groups, however, had nearly 70,000 members.The analysis was first reported by The New York Times on Tuesday.Asked about the ivermectin pages, Facebook spokesperson Aaron Simpson said the platform removes content that “attempts to buy, sell, or donate for Ivermectin.”“We also enforce against any account or group that violates our COVID-19 and vaccine policies, including claims that Ivermectin is a guaranteed cure or guaranteed prevention, and we don’t allow ads promoting Ivermectin as a treatment for COVID-19,” Simpson said. “When people search for Ivermectin on Facebook, the results point them to our COVID Information Center, which includes reliable information on vaccines and how to get vaccinated.”The Food and Drug Administration has warned that ivermectin can be toxic to humans because animal drugs are often highly concentrated for use in larger animals. Last week, New Mexico reported two deaths linked to misuse of ivermectin.In the Facebook groups, people are discussing how to acquire and use the drug, Media Matters said in late August. In some instances, the group’s administrators inform members on how to evade content moderation policies.
A Boy Went to a COVID-Swamped ER. He Waited for Hours. Then His Appendix Burst. — ProPublica - What first struck Nathaniel Osborn when he and his wife took their son, Seth, to the emergency room this summer was how packed the waiting room was for a Wednesday at 1 p.m. The Florida hospital’s emergency room was so crowded there weren’t enough chairs for the family to all sit as they waited. And waited. Hours passed and 12-year-old Seth’s condition worsened, his body quivering from the pain shooting across his lower belly. Osborn said his wife asked why it was taking so long to be seen. A nurse rolled her eyes and muttered, “COVID.”Seth was finally diagnosed with appendicitis more than six hours after arriving at Cleveland Clinic Martin Health North Hospital in late July. Around midnight, he was taken by ambulance to a sister hospital about a half-hour away that was better equipped to perform pediatric emergency surgery, his father said.But by the time the doctor operated in the early morning hours, Seth’s appendix had burst — a potentially fatal complication.As the nation’s hospitals fill and emergency rooms overflow with critically ill COVID-19 patients, it is the non-COVID-19 patients, like Seth, who have become collateral damage. They, too, need emergency care, but the sheer number of COVID-19 cases is crowding them out. Treatment has often been delayed as ERs scramble to find a bed that may be hundreds of miles away. Some health officials now worry about looming ethical decisions. Last week, Idaho activated a “crisis standard of care,” which one official described as a “last resort.” It allows overwhelmed hospitals to ration care, including “in rare cases, ventilator (breathing machines) or intensive care unit (ICU) beds may need to be used for those who are most likely to survive, while patients who are not likely to survive may not be able to receive one,” the state’s website said.The federal government’s latest data shows Alabama is at 100% of its intensive care unit capacity, with Texas, Georgia, Mississippi and Arkansas at more than 90% ICU capacity. Florida is just under 90%. It’s the COVID-19 cases that are dominating. In Georgia, 62% of the ICU beds are now filled with just COVID-19 patients. In Texas, the percentage is nearly half.To have so many ICU beds pressed into service for a single diagnosis is “unheard of,” said Dr. Hasan Kakli, an emergency room physician at Bellville Medical Center in Bellville, Texas, about an hour from Houston. “It’s approaching apocalyptic.” In Texas, state data released Monday showed there were only 319 adult and 104 pediatric staffed ICU beds available across a state of 29 million people.Hospitals need to hold some ICU beds for other patients, such as those recovering from major surgery or other critical conditions such as stroke, trauma or heart failure. While the latest hospital crisis echoes previous pandemic spikes, there are troubling differences this time around.Before, localized COVID-19 hot spots led to bed shortages, but there were usually hospitals in the region not as affected that could accept a transfer.Now, as the highly contagious delta variant envelops swaths of low-vaccination states all at once, it becomes harder to find nearby hospitals that are not slammed.
A Hospital Hit by Hackers, a Baby in Distress: The Case of the First Alleged Ransomware Death – WSJ -- When Teiranni Kidd walked into Springhill Medical Center on July 16, 2019, to have her baby, she had no idea the Alabama hospital was deep in the midst of a ransomware attack. For nearly eight days, computers had been disabled on every floor. A real-time wireless tracker that could locate medical staff around the hospital was down. Years of patient health records were inaccessible. And at the nurses’ desk in the labor and delivery unit, medical staff were cut off from the equipment that monitors fetal heartbeats in the 12 delivery rooms. Doctors and nurses in the unit texted each other with updates. “We have no computer charting for I don’t know how long,” one manager informed a nurse in a message later filed in court. “They are printing out the labs in the laboratory and sending them by paper,” another worker wrote. One overwhelmed nurse texted, “I want to run away.” Ms. Kidd’s daughter, Nicko Silar, was born with the umbilical cord wrapped around her neck. The condition triggers warning signs on the heart monitor when the squeezed cord cuts off the supply of blood and oxygen to the fetus. Nicko was diagnosed with severe brain damage. She died nine months later. Amid the hack, fewer eyes were on the heart monitors—normally tracked on a large screen at the nurses’ station, in addition to inside the delivery room. Attending obstetrician Katelyn Parnell texted the nurse manager that she would have delivered the baby by caesarean section had she seen the monitor readout. “I need u to help me understand why I was not notified.” In another text, Dr. Parnell wrote: “This was preventable.”
The COVID-19 pandemic has caused the biggest decrease in life expectancy since World War II -The COVID-19 pandemic triggered life expectancy losses not seen since World War II in Western Europe and exceeded those observed around the dissolution of the Eastern Bloc in central and Eastern European countries, according to research published [27 September], led by scientists at Oxford’s Leverhulme Centre for Demographic Science.----- Across most of the 29 countries, males saw larger life expectancy declines than females. The largest declines in life expectancy were observed among males in the US, who saw a decline of 2.2 years relative to 2019 levels, followed by Lithuanian males (1.7 years). According to co-lead author, Dr Ridhi Kashyap, ‘The large declines in life expectancy observed in the US can partly be explained by the notable increase in mortality at working ages observed in 2020. In the US, increases in mortality in the under 60 age group contributed most significantly to life expectancy declines, whereas across most of Europe increases in mortality above age 60 contributed more significantly.’ In addition to these age patterns, the team’s analysis reveals that most life expectancy reductions across different countries were attributable to official COVID-19 deaths.-----Life expectancy, also known as period life expectancy, refers to the average age to which a newborn live if current death rates continued for their whole life. It does not predict an actual lifespan. It provides a snapshot of current mortality conditions and allows for a comparison of the size of the mortality impacts of the pandemic between different countries and populations.
Smokers up to 80% more likely to be admitted to hospital with Covid, study says -Smokers are 60%-80% more likely to be admitted to hospital with Covid-19 and also more likely to die from the disease, data suggests.A study, which pooled observational and genetic data on smoking and Covid-19 to strengthen the evidence base, contradicts research published at the start of the pandemic suggesting that smoking might help to protect against the virus. This was later retracted after it was discovered that some of the paper’s authors had financial links to the tobacco industry. Other studies on whether smoking is associated with a greater likelihood of more severe Covid-19 infection have produced inconsistent results.One problem is that most of these studies have been observational, making it difficult to establish whether smoking is the cause of any increased risk, or whether something else is to blame, such as smokers being more likely to come from a lower socioeconomic background. Dr Ashley Clift at the University of Oxford and colleagues drew on GP health records, Covid-19 test results, hospital admissions data and death certificates to identify associations between smoking and Covid-19 severity from January to August 2020 in 421,469 participants of the UK Biobank study – all of whom had also previously had their genetic makeup analysed. Compared with those who had never smoked, current smokers were 80% more likely to be admitted to hospital and significantly more likely to die from Covid-19 if they became infected. The Mendelian randomisation analysis also supported the link between smoking and worse Covid-19 outcomes, finding that a genetic predisposition to smoking was associated with a 45% higher risk of infection and a 60% higher risk of hospital admission for Covid-19.A genetic predisposition to heavy smoking was associated with a more than doubling in the risk of infection; a fivefold increase in the risk of hospital admission; and a tenfold increase in the risk of death from the virus, the team found.
Even Mild Cases of COVID May Leave a Mark on the Brain - Scientific American - With more than 18 months of the pandemic in the rearview mirror, researchers have been steadily gathering new and important insights into the effects of COVID-19 on the body and brain. These findings are raising concerns about the long-term impacts that the coronavirus might have on biological processes such as aging. As a cognitive neuroscientist, my past research has focused on understanding how normal brain changes related to aging affect people’s ability to think and move – particularly in middle age and beyond. But as more evidence came in showing that COVID-19 could affect the body and brain for months or longer following infection, my research team became interested in exploring how it might also impact the natural process of aging. In August 2021, a preliminary but large-scale study investigating brain changes in people who had experienced COVID-19 drew a great deal of attention within the neuroscience community. In that study, researchers relied on an existing database called the UK Biobank, which contains brain imaging data from over 45,000 people in the U.K. going back to 2014. This means – crucially – that there was baseline data and brain imaging of all of those people from before the pandemic. The research team analyzed the brain imaging data and then brought back those who had been diagnosed with COVID-19 for additional brain scans. They compared people who had experienced COVID-19 to participants who had not, carefully matching the groups based on age, sex, baseline test date and study location, as well as common risk factors for disease, such as health variables and socioeconomic status. The team found marked differences in gray matter – which is made up of the cell bodies of neurons that process information in the brain – between those who had been infected with COVID-19 and those who had not. Specifically, the thickness of the gray matter tissue in brain regions known as the frontal and temporal lobes was reduced in the COVID-19 group, differing from the typical patterns seen in the group that hadn’t experienced COVID-19. In the general population, it is normal to see some change in gray matter volume or thickness over time as people age, but the changes were larger than normal in those who had been infected with COVID-19. Interestingly, when the researchers separated the individuals who had severe enough illness to require hospitalization, the results were the same as for those who had experienced milder COVID-19. That is, people who had been infected with COVID-19 showed a loss of brain volume even when the disease was not severe enough to require hospitalization. Finally, researchers also investigated changes in performance on cognitive tasks and found that those who had contracted COVID-19 were slower in processing information, relative to those who had not. While we have to be careful interpreting these findings as they await formal peer review, the large sample, pre- and post-illness data in the same people and careful matching with people who had not had COVID-19 have made this preliminary work particularly valuable.
Seven symptoms jointly predict COVID-19 diagnosis - A set of 7 symptoms, considered together, can be used to maximize detection of COVID-19 in the community, according to a new paper published this week in PLOS Medicine by Marc Chadeau-Hyam and Paul Elliott of Imperial College London, UK, and colleagues.The rapid detection of SARS-CoV-2 infection in the community is key to ensuring efficient control of transmission. When testing capacity is limited, it is important to use tests in the most efficient way possible, including using the most informative symptoms for test allocation. In the new study, researchers obtained throat and nose swabs with valid SARS-CoV-2 PCR test results from 1,147,345 volunteers in England aged 5 years and above. The data were collected over 8 testing rounds conducted between June 2020 and January 2021 as part of the REal-time Assessment of Community Transmission-1 (REACT-1) study. Participants were asked about symptoms they experienced in the week prior to testing.A model was developed based on the data obtained during rounds 2 to 7, with 7 symptoms selected as jointly positively predictive of PCR positivity: loss or change of smell, loss or change of taste, fever, new persistent cough, chills, appetite loss, and muscle aches. The first 4 of those symptoms are currently used in the UK to determine eligibility for community PCR testing. In round 8 of testing, the resulting model predicted PCR positivity with an area under the curve of 0.77, and testing people in the community with at least 1 of the 7 selected positively predictive symptoms gave sensitivity, specificity, and positive predictive values of 74%, 64%, and 9.7%, respectively. Modeling suggested that the use of the 7 symptoms identified for PCR test allocation would result in 30% to 40% of symptomatic individuals in England being eligible for a test (versus 10% currently) and, if all those eligible were tested, would result in the detection of 70% to 75% of positive cases."In order to improve PCR positivity detection rates and consequently improve control of viral transmission via isolation measures, we would propose to extend the list of symptoms used for triage to all 7 symptoms we identified," the authors say. "These findings suggest many people with COVID-19 won't be getting tested—and therefore won't be self-isolating—because their symptoms don't match those used in current public health guidance to help identify infected people," Elliott adds. "We understand that there is a need for clear testing criteria, and that including lots of symptoms which are commonly found in other illnesses like seasonal flu could risk people self-isolating unnecessarily. I hope that our findings on the most informative symptoms mean that the testing program can take advantage of the available evidence, helping to optimize the detection of infected people."
Scientists say a 'doomsday' variant after delta isn't likely. But here's what's possible - At the very end of a Stanford panel about coronavirus variants last week, someone finally posed the question that seems to haunt everyone now: Just how much worse than the highly infectious delta variant can this virus get? The answers were both cautiously reassuring and disconcertingly unsatisfying. The “doomsday scenario,” in which a variant is completely resistant to antibodies and remains highly transmissible, is unlikely, said Arjun Rustagi, an infectious disease fellow at Stanford. But beyond that, many experts were wary about guessing. “This virus has a massive genome. There’s still room for it to play, and it’s really hard to make predictions on where it’s going to go,” . “We have no idea what’s going to happen next. It’s hard to imagine it can get much more transmissible than it is with delta,” she said. “But the only consistency of these past almost two years of pandemic is how often I’ve been wrong.” The delta variant is thought to be twice as infectious as the original strain of the coronavirus. It’s not as transmissible as measles, a virus that causes systemic infection and that can spread farther and faster than any other known pathogen. But with delta, “we are now looking at the most infectious respiratory virus in our history,” And, he added, no one can yet answer perhaps the next most logical question: “Will there be an heir to delta that will be even more transmissible?” Variants have become a defining feature of this pandemic, as the coronavirus rapidly mutates and spawns new versions of itself that make it both harder to contain and potentially more lethal. In fact, the first variant to dominate worldwide included a key mutation that may have made it easier to generate even more mutations, and faster. Concerns over variants largely fall into three broad categories: that they will evade vaccines or natural immunity; that they will become more infectious; and that they will cause more severe disease. So far, a few variants have shown signs of immune resistance, though not enough to seriously undermine the vaccines. A few studies have suggested that delta may cause more severe disease, but many experts say they need more evidence. Several variants have proved more infectious than the original virus, but none as dramatically as delta. Whether the next variant could outpace delta isn’t clear. It’s not impossible, but as long as delta has a strong foothold there may not be much pressure for it to mutate to become even more infectious.
Vaccine protection against Covid-19 wanes over time, especially for older people, CDC says – -- The protection provided by Covid-19 vaccines appears to wane over time, especially for people 65 and older, a US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention expert said Wednesday. Ruth Link-Gelles, who helps lead the CDC's Vaccine Effectiveness Team, reviewed a series of studies looking at the overall effectiveness of vaccines in various groups between February and August and found similar patterns for Pfizer's and Moderna's vaccines, both made using mRNA. The findings tended to support the argument that people's protection starts to wane after a few months, and that boosters might help restore their immunity. Effectiveness started to wane a few months after people were fully vaccinated -- defined as two weeks after their second dose of either vaccine. "For individuals 65 plus, we saw significant declines in VE (vaccine effectiveness) against infection during Delta for the mRNA products," Link-Gelles told the a meeting of CDC vaccine adviser "We also saw declines, particularly for Pfizer, for 65 up, that we're not seeing in younger populations. Finally there's evidence of waning VE against hospitalization in the Delta period," she said. Link-Gelles said that, overall, Moderna's vaccine effectiveness is higher than Pfizer's. For the Johnson & Johnson vaccine, vaccine effectiveness actually increases with time, even after the Delta variant has dominated.One study called SUPERNOVA looked at veterans between February and August of this year. In that study, the Pfizer vaccine provided 92% protection against hospitalization for those ages 18 to 64, and 77% for those over 65, Link-Gelles said. The Moderna vaccine provided 97% protection against hospitalization for those 18-64, and 87% for those 65 and older. Effectiveness did not seem to be affected by the arrival of the Delta variant, the study found.A study called IVY looked at hospitalized adults in 18 states between March and August. Efficacy of Pfizer's vaccine waned from 91% 14 to 120 days after full vaccination, to 77% three months or more after full vaccination. Moderna's vaccine effectiveness did not really wane, staying at 92% or 93% in that study.In a study of 4,000 health care personnel, first responders, and other frontline workers in eight places who were tested every week regardless of symptoms, vaccine protection against any infection declined from 91% pre-Delta to 66% during Delta.Pfizer told ACIP it hopes and expects that antibody protection from a third dose of its Covid-19 vaccine will last longer than after the initial two doses, but more research will be needed to determine whether more doses would be needed later on.
Pfizer Vaccine Protection Wanes, C.D.C. Study Shows - The New York Times - The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention released data on Friday indicating that the level of protection against Covid hospitalizations afforded by the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine dropped significantly in the four months after full inoculation.The data was released hours before a scientific advisory committee to the Food and Drug Administration recommended authorizing booster shots for recipients of the Pfizer coronavirus vaccine who are 65 or older or are at high risk of severe Covid-19, at least six months after the second shot.The new study found that from two weeks after recipients got their second dose — a point at which they are normally considered fully vaccinated — to four months later, the Pfizer vaccine was 91 percent effective in preventing hospitalization. Beyond 120 days, though, its effectiveness fell to 77 percent.The Moderna vaccine showed no comparable decrease in protection over the same time frame: It was 92 percent effective against hospitalizations four months after recipients’ vaccination, a level virtually identical to its 93 percent effectiveness before then.The study said that not enough participants had received the one-shot Johnson & Johnson vaccine to compare its performance. Overall, though, the Johnson & Johnson shot has been 71 percent effective in preventing hospitalizations.The C.D.C. study released on Friday supported some others that suggested the Pfizer vaccine may offer less protection from hospitalization over time. But the available data is far from unanimous.Other studies have shown that Pfizer’s effectiveness against hospitalization has remained above 90 percent, despite the spread of the Delta variant and the lengthening time since people received their second shots. Pfizer has said that data from Israel suggest a falling effectiveness against severe disease, though it appears that Israel and the United States define “severe disease” differently. The latest C.D.C. study was based on an analysis of roughly 3,700 adults hospitalized across the United States from March to August.People with compromised immune systems, who typically don’t respond as well to vaccines, were excluded from the study. Nevertheless, the vaccinated patients tended to be older people — the Pfizer cohort had a median age of 68 — and it was unclear whether vaccine effectiveness had changed much in younger age groups. Previous studies have shown lower levels of protection in older people.The authors of the study said that the gap in the performance of the Moderna and Pfizer vaccines could stem from higher doses of mRNA in the Moderna shots or the four-week space between doses of the Moderna vaccine. (Pfizer vaccines were given three weeks apart.) It’s also possible, they said, that other, unnoticed differences in the study participants receiving either shot could have also influenced the results.
Moderna's COVID-19 Vaccine Protection Drops by 36% After 12 Months - Studies from COVID-19 vaccine makers and public health officials have been suggesting for a while that protection provided by the vaccines wanes over time. In a new study published on Sept. 15 to a preprint server—the study is not yet peer-reviewed—researchers at Moderna, which makes one of the two mRNA COVID-19 vaccines (the other is from Pfizer-BioNTech), report that people vaccinated within the last eight months had 36% fewer breakthrough infections than those who were vaccinated a year ago.That suggests vaccine-induced immunity is likely highest shortly after people get their recommended two doses of the vaccine, and starts to drop afterward. The Moderna vaccine received emergency use authorization (EUA) from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration in Dec. 2020; the FDA is currently reviewing the company’s request for full approval of the shot.The latest data are part of an ongoing Phase 3 study of that includes more than 14,000 people who were randomly assigned to receive either two doses of the Moderna vaccine or two doses of placebo from July to October 2020, and more than 11,000 people who were originally assigned to receive placebo doses from December 2020 to March 2021 and, after the EUA was granted, chose to receive two doses of the vaccine. In that latter group, which completed its two-dose regimen about eight months ago, 88 people tested positive for COVID-19, compared to 162 people who had breakthrough cases in the earlier vaccinated group. That means the more recently vaccinated people had a 36% lower incidence of breakthrough infections than those immunized a year ago. (Overall, only 19 of the 250 breakthrough cases were severe.)The results, Moderna says, suggests protection wanes over time, which is why the company submitted data to the FDA to authorize a booster dose to provide better protection against COVID-19.
For people who got the J&J vaccine, some doctors are advising boosters ASAP. - Last week, a panel of scientists and doctors met to discuss the Pfizer booster vaccine. Specifically, the goal was to advise the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention about who needs a third shot.The agency ultimately recommended anyone age 65 and over should get one as well as people who live in long-term care facilities or people ages 50 to 64, who have underlying health conditions.But several panelists felt there was a more urgent matter at hand than Pfizer boosters.“To me, the biggest policy question out there is the Johnson & Johnson [booster],” Dr. Helen Keipp Talbot at Vanderbilt University, who’s a member of the CDC’s Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices, told the panel. “I worry we’re getting distracted by the question of boosters of Pfizer when we have bigger and more important things to do in the pandemic.” The Johnson & Johnson booster is a “bigger” issue, several panelists noted, because people who received that vaccine may need a booster more urgently than those who received the Pfizer or Moderna. About 15 million Americans got the Johnson & Johnson shot, and many are wondering what to do. Here’s why doctors are concerned. The rationale for recommending a third shot of Pfizer to older people is that the Pfizer vaccine’s protection against severe disease has declined for people in that age group. For instance, the CDC reported last week that, for people over 65, protection against hospitalization has dropped from about 85% to 70% in the past six months.The problem is the efficacy of the Johnson & Johnson vaccine for preventing severe disease has dropped to the same level for people of all ages, according to data presented by the CDC, says Monica Gandhi, an infectious disease physician at the University of California, San Francisco.“Unfortunately, the effectiveness of Johnson & Johnson is down to 71%, in the United States, across all age groups,” she says. “And that is the data that is making a lot of [doctors] say, ‘OK, let’s get some recommendations from the CDC and what to do with the Johnson & Johnson booster.’ And we need this to happen quickly.”So quickly, in fact, that Gandhi and her colleagues at UC San Francisco haven’t waited for an official authorization to administer Johnson & Johnson boosters. “Though we couldn’t officially recommend it, we supplied Pfizer mRNA booster shots to anyone who had gotten Johnson & Johnson vaccines over the last two months,” she adds.And as Gandhi points out, data from a study in the U.K. shows that this type of boosting is safe and effective. Some trial participants got the messenger RNA vaccines (Pfizer or Moderna) as second shots, even though their first shot had been the AstraZeneca vaccine. The AstraZeneca, like the Johnson & Johnson, uses a harmless adenovirus to carry the SARS-CoV-2 gene. Preliminary results from that study concluded that using different types of vaccines for an additional shot could result in a more robust immune response. And now, U.K. residents eligible for a third shot may get either the AstraZeneca or either of the two mRNA vaccines, no matter which they received originally.
J&J vaccine could be linked to another clotting condition: EU - The European Medicines Agency (EMA), the European Union's drug regulator, on Friday found a possible link between Johnson & Johnson's COVID-19 vaccine and rare cases of blood clotting in deep veins. During a Pharmacovigilance Risk Assessment Committee meeting, the agency said it found a possible link between venous thromboembolism (VTE) and the J&J vaccine. "VTE is a condition in which a blood clot forms in a deep vein, usually in a leg, arm or groin, and may travel to the lungs causing a blockage of the blood supply, with possible life-threatening consequences," the agency wrote in its meeting highlights. It is recommending that the condition be listed as a rare side effect. The agency also recommends that immune thrombocytopenia (ITP) be listed as a side effect of the J&J vaccine and AstraZeneca's vaccine. ITP is a bleeding disorder in which "the immune system mistakenly targets blood cells called platelets that are needed for normal blood clotting," the agency wrote. While J&J said the conditions are rare, it will update the product information and continue to work closely with EMA and other government agencies, according to Reuters. "We strongly support raising awareness of the signs and symptoms of rare events to ensure they can be quickly identified and effectively treated," the company said in a July statement. The vaccines from both AstraZeneca and Johnson & Johnson have previously been associated with rare incidents of blood clotting.
Vaccinated older adults far more worried about COVID-19 than unvaccinated: poll --American adults aged 50 and older who are vaccinated against COVID-19 are more likely to be worried about the virus than those who have not gotten the shot, according to a new poll released Wednesday from The Associated Press and the NORC Center for Public Affairs Research. The poll, conducted from Aug. 20-23, found that just 25 percent of older Americans who are vaccinated said they were not worried about them or a family member getting infected with COVID-19, compared to 61 percent of unvaccinated Americans who said the same. Additionally, those who expressed more concern about themselves or a loved one getting infected were more likely to practice social distancing, wear masks and avoid going near large groups of people. Overall, 36 percent of people aged 50 and older said they were either very or extremely worried about COVID-19 infections amid a surge in new cases fueled by the highly contagious delta variant, approximately double the percentage of older U.S. adults who said the same in June. The lower level of concern about COVID-19 infections among those who are still unvaccinated comes amid concerns that vaccine hesitancy remains relatively high in the country and as daily new cases continue to reach over 100,000. The Wednesday poll also revealed that older U.S. adults who are concerned about COVID-19 were less likely to report a positive quality of life or high levels of mental and emotional wellbeing. Overall, 1 in 3 U.S. adults aged 50 and older say they feel socially isolated at least sometimes, with 1 in 4 saying their social lives and relationships have worsened over the past year. However, majorities of adults aged 50 and older overall still positively rate their quality of life, mental health and satisfaction with relationships as well as their social lives. According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), roughly 64 percent of the total U.S. population has received at least one dose of the COVID-19 vaccine thus far, with about 56 percent fully vaccinated as of Tuesday.
CDC report: Side effects from COVID-19 vaccine booster similar to second dose --A Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) report released Tuesday found that side effects to a booster dose of COVID-19 vaccines are similar to those after the second dose, with no new serious unexpected patterns emerging. CDC Director Rochelle Walensky said the report was a positive development, and is further evidence that booster doses are "well tolerated.""The frequency and type of side effects were similar to those seen after the second vaccine doses and were mostly mild or moderate and short-lived," Walensky said at a White House press briefing. The data in the report comes from a CDC reporting system where people can voluntarily report side effects through a smartphone app after getting a third shot. The report finds that 79.4 percent of people getting a third dose of the Pfizer or Moderna vaccines reported a local reaction, like pain at the injection site, compared to 77.6 percent after the second dose. It also found that 74.1 percent reported a "systemic" reaction after the third dose such as a headache or fatigue, compared to 76.5 percent after the second dose. "These initial findings indicate no unexpected patterns of adverse reactions after an additional dose of COVID-19 vaccine; most of these adverse reactions were mild or moderate," the CDC report stated. The data are based on reports from 12,591 people who got a third shot starting in August, after the Food and Drug Administration authorized booster shots for immunocompromised people. The report adds to safety data from the clinical trials that the FDA
Safety Monitoring of an Additional Dose of COVID-19 Vaccine — United States, August 12–September 19, 2021 CDC - On August 12, 2021, the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) amended Emergency Use Authorizations (EUAs) for the Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna COVID-19 vaccines to authorize administration of an additional dose after completion of a primary vaccination series to eligible persons with moderate to severe immunocompromising conditions (1,2). On September 22, 2021, FDA authorized an additional dose of Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine ≥6 months after completion of the primary series among persons aged ≥65 years, at high risk for severe COVID-19, or whose occupational or institutional exposure puts them at high risk for COVID-19 (1). Results from a phase 3 clinical trial conducted by Pfizer-BioNTech that included 306 persons aged 18–55 years showed that adverse reactions after receipt of a third dose administered 5–8 months after completion of a 2-dose primary mRNA vaccination series were similar to those reported after receipt of dose 2; these adverse reactions included mild to moderate injection site and systemic reactions (3). CDC developed v-safe, a voluntary, smartphone-based safety surveillance system, to provide information on adverse reactions after COVID-19 vaccination. Coincident with authorization of an additional dose for persons with immunocompromising conditions, the v-safe platform was updated to allow registrants to enter information about additional doses of COVID-19 vaccine received. During August 12–September 19, 2021, a total of 22,191 v-safe registrants reported receipt of an additional dose of COVID-19 vaccine. Most (97.6%) reported a primary 2-dose mRNA vaccination series followed by a third dose of the same vaccine. Among those who completed a health check-in survey for all 3 doses (12,591; 58.1%), 79.4% and 74.1% reported local or systemic reactions, respectively, after dose 3, compared with 77.6% and 76.5% who reported local or systemic reactions, respectively, after dose 2. These initial findings indicate no unexpected patterns of adverse reactions after an additional dose of COVID-19 vaccine; most of these adverse reactions were mild or moderate. CDC will continue to monitor vaccine safety, including the safety of additional doses of COVID-19 vaccine, and provide data to guide vaccine recommendations and protect public health.
A study finds no signs of trouble in getting flu and Covid shots at the same time. - A British clinical trial found no sign of danger in getting a flu shot and a second dose of a Covid-19 vaccine at the same time, results that support the advice of U.S. health authorities and are welcome news for strained health care workers as flu season hits.In the study, doctors recruited 679 people from April to June across Britain. At the time, all of the volunteers had received a first dose of a Covid-19 vaccine, either from AstraZeneca or Pfizer-BioNTech, the two vaccines first authorized there.When the volunteers returned for a second vaccine dose, the researchers also gave half of them a flu shot and the other half a placebo. The researchers then monitored the volunteers for side effects, such as aches and fevers.“There are no safety concerns raised in this trial,” the authors wrote in their preliminary report, which was posted online on Thursday and has not yet been published in a scientific journal.In addition to looking at the safety of the vaccines, the researchers also collected blood to measure antibodies to the coronavirus. Some combinations of different vaccine brands led to a slightly lower level of antibodies, and a slightly higher level in other cases. But the researchers did not suspect that any combination of a flu and Covid vaccine would result in a lower effectiveness than each given individually.The researchers did not speculate about what immune responses people might experience if they get a flu shot at the same time as a third Covid-19 shot, which many people may be doing as countries authorize boosters.
The C.D.C. escalates its pleas for any pregnant or breastfeeding Americans to get vaccinated against Covid. -- In an urgent plea on Wednesday, federal health officials asked that any American who is pregnant, planning to become pregnant or currently breastfeeding get vaccinated against the coronavirus as soon as possible.Covid-19 poses a severe risk during pregnancy, when an individual’s immune system is tamped down, and raises the risk of stillbirth or another poor outcome, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Twenty-two pregnant individuals in the United States died of Covid in August, the highest number in a single month since the pandemic started.Some 125,000 pregnant people have tested positive for the virus; 22,000 of them have been hospitalized, and 161 have died. Hospital data indicates that 97 percent of those who were infected with the virus when they were hospitalized — for illness, or for labor and delivery — were not vaccinated.Vaccination rates among those who are pregnant are lower than among the general population. Fewer than one-third of all pregnant people were vaccinated before or during their pregnancy, the agency said.The rates vary widely by race and ethnicity, with the highest — nearly 50 percent — among pregnant Asian American individuals, and the lowest rates among pregnant Black individuals, at just 15 percent.Pregnancy is on the C.D.C.’s list of health conditions that increase the risk of severe Covid. Though the absolute risk of severe disease is low, pregnant patients who are symptomatic are more than twice as likely as other symptomatic patients to require admission to intensive care or interventions like mechanical ventilation, and may be more likely to die.Some data also suggest that pregnant individuals with Covid-19 are more likely to experience conditions that complicate pregnancy — like a kind of high blood pressure called pre-eclampsia — compared with pregnant individuals who don’t have Covid. Pregnant individuals with the disease are also at increased risk for poor birth outcomes, like preterm birth.
Pfizer’s Covid-19 Vaccine for Kids May Not Be FDA Authorized Before November - Wall Street Journal. Regulatory clearance of the Pfizer Inc. and BioNTech vaccine for young children may not come until November, according to a person familiar with the matter, after the companies said they won’t ask for the green light for a few weeks.The companies said Tuesday they provided U.S. health regulators with data from a recent study of their vaccine in children 5 to 11 years old. They said they would file an application asking the Food and Drug Administration to authorize use in the coming weeks, though they had previously targeted submitting the application as early as the end of September.That timeline for potential availability of the shots prompted parents, public health experts and vaccine experts to anticipate shots as early as October.Pfizer may not finish its application until mid-October, however, which means the FDA may not make its decision until sometime between Halloween and Thanksgiving, according to the person familiar with the matter.Pfizer submitted the data Tuesday and is on track to file a formal submission soon, a spokeswoman said.No vaccines are authorized yet for children 5 to 11 years of age. Many parents have been eagerly waiting to vaccinate their children, especially since many have returned to schools.The Biden administration and public-health experts have also looked forward to authorization for the younger age group, saying it could help damp the spread of the contagious Delta variant in addition to helping protect the children in school.Recent studies have shown that the effectiveness of Covid-19 vaccines is decreasing, though experts say the shots still work well. WSJ explains what the numbers mean and why they don’t tell the full story. Photo illustration: Jacob Reynolds/WSJThe FDA said this month that it was “working around the clock” to help make Covid-19 shots available for children under 12 years old but said that testing and regulatory process needed to play out.The agency has been reviewing data on the vaccine’s use in child study subjects that Pfizer had submitted earlier, the person said.In their latest announcement, Pfizer and BioNTech said it provided the FDA data from a positive recent late-stage study in young children for initial review. The companies said last week that researchers found a two-dose course of the vaccine to be safe and generate a robust immune response in children 5 to 11 years old in a pivotal study. Antibody levels in the children who received the shot were similar to those measured in younger adults in a separate study, the companies said.
What if getting a kids’ vaccine approved is the easy part? - THIS MORNING, PFIZER/BIONTECH submitted data to the Food and Drug Administration from its clinical trial of a Covid vaccine for children, launching a process that could deliver doses to kids between 5 and 11 within the next month or two.With child cases rising—last week, those under age 18 made up almost 27 percent of newly reported cases, according to the American Academy of Pediatrics, although they only represent 22 percent of the US population—there’s a lot of pressure to move through regulation quickly. But parents who have been waiting tensely for this moment may find more hurdles in their way than they expect. As complex as it has been, getting the vaccine authorized was just part of the challenge of protecting kids. Getting it distributed and administered will be complex too.For one thing, the new shots will arrive in a system that’s already overwhelmed. “Immunization programs haven't had a second to think about this group yet, because they have been dealing with adult vaccination, and additional doses for the immunocompromised, and influenza vaccination season, which can't be postponed,” says Kelly Moore, a physician and president and CEO of the nonprofit Immunization Action Coalition. “They haven't been able to catch their breath, which is a problem, because it’s coming up fast.” But those shots also will be delivered to kids in different locations, likely by different personnel, than the adult vaccines released last winter. They are arriving in a national landscape that is even more politicized than it was before. And it’s not even clear how many Americans welcome them: A Gallup poll released just this morningfinds that 45 percent of parents do not plan to vaccinate their young kids. Pfizer has been pursuing clinical trials aimed at clearing the vaccine for younger kids since March. The approximately 4,500 children in those trials are split into three cohorts: 6 months to 23 months, 2 years to just under 5, and 5 to 11. In each group, the vaccine being tested is some fraction of the adult dose, from one-third down to one-tenth. Last week, the company made its first comment on its pediatric trial results, saying that two rounds of those one-third doses achieved the same antibody levels in 5- to 11-year-olds as two full-sized doses did in 16- to 25-year-olds. It is those results, with a lot more data, that the company brought to the FDA today. Data for the under-5s is supposed to follow.
Researchers develop new method for rapidly detecting SARS-CoV-2 RNA --The current SARS-CoV-2 RNA detection methods recommended by the World Health Organization profoundly rely on the roles of biological enzymes. High cost, stringent transportation and storage conditions, and the global supply shortages of enzymes limit large-scaled testing. This means that most countries have to prioritize testing on vulnerable cases, which delays diagnostics and identification of positive cases, which again can hamper pandemic mitigation and suppression.Quantitative reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction(qRT-PCR) is still the gold standard for whole-genome detection and has played a crucial role in controlling the Covid-19 pandemic. However, the sample-to-result takes several hours. The method necessitates a complex thermocycler instrument to raise and lower the reaction temperature in discrete steps.Non-enzymatic isothermal amplification methods, being more straightforward and faster, have shown promising potentials to substitute the qRT-PCR. Although these methods perform very well when the target gene is short, they have yet to function efficiently to detect whole genomes (long DNA or RNA targets).During the COVID-19 pandemic, the euro area alone experienced a 3.8% drop in GDP within the first quarter of 2020 (Eurostat 2020). Thus, developing a lower-cost methodology for pathogen detection would be highly beneficial for both patients and the healthcare systems aiming to battle future pandemics.Associate Professor Yi Sun and Postdoc Mohsen Mohammadniaei at DTU Health Tech have invented a one-pot assay, which they have named NISDA (Non-enzymatic isothermal strand displacement and amplification assay). The assay is for rapid detection of SARS-CoV-2 RNA without the need for the RNA reverse transcription step of the qRT-PCR methodology. It enables a single-step detection routine. The user only needs to add the sample into a single tube, place it in the instrument and wait for 30 minutes to obtain the result.
Merck says a trial shows it has produced the first effective antiviral pill for Covid. -- The drug maker Merck said on Friday that it would seek authorization for the first antiviral pill for Covid after its drug, known as molnupiravir, was shown in a clinical trial to cut the risk of hospitalization or death in half when given to high-risk people early in their infections.The treatment could become the first in a wave of antiviral pill products, which experts say could offer a powerful new tool in efforts to tame the pandemic, as they could reach more people than the antibody treatments that are being widely used in the United States for similar patients.“I think it will translate into many thousands of lives being saved worldwide, where there’s less access to monoclonal antibodies, and in this country, too,” said Dr. Robert Shafer, an infectious disease specialist and expert on antiviral therapy at Stanford University.Late-stage study results of two other antiviral pills, one developed by Pfizer and the other by Atea Pharmaceuticals and Roche, are expected within the next few months.The Merck drug, which is designed to stop the coronavirus from replicating, is to be taken as four capsules twice a day for five days.Merck said an independent board of experts monitoring its study data had recommended that its trial be stopped early because the drug’s benefit to patients had proved so convincing. The company said that the Food and Drug Administration had agreed with that decision.For the research, the monitors looked at data through early August, when the study had enrolled 775 volunteers in the United States and overseas. For volunteers who received the drug, their risk of being hospitalized or dying fell 50 percent, without any concerning side effects, compared with those who received placebo pills, Merck said in a news release announcing the findings. Merck announced the results in a statement that did not include some detailed data from the trial that experts said would be crucial in determining how the drug will be used.Seven percent of volunteers in the group that received the drug were hospitalized, and none of them died, compared with a 14 percent rate of hospitalization and death — including eight deaths — in the group that received the placebo.The Merck pill’s efficacy was lower than that of monoclonal antibody treatments, which mimic antibodies that the immune system generates naturally when fighting the virus. Those drugs have been in high demand recently, but they are expensive, are typically given intravenously, and have proved cumbersome and labor-intensive for hospitals and clinics to administer. Studies have shown that they reduce hospitalizations and deaths 70 to 85 percent in similar high-risk Covid patients.Still, Angela Rasmussen, a virologist and research scientist at the Vaccine and Infectious Disease Organization at the University of Saskatchewan, said that antiviral pills could have a greater impact by virtue of reaching more people.
What You Need to Know About Merck's New COVID Treatment Pill -- Merck on Friday announced that its new pill to treat COVID-19 reduced the risk of hospitalization and death by about 50%. Merck plans to seek emergency authorization for the antiviral pills to be used in the United States. The pills are meant for people who are sick with COVID but are not in the hospital. Merck’s Phase 3 clinical trial enrolled only unvaccinated people who were considered high risk, such as older people or those with medical conditions like diabetes or heart disease. Initially, the drug might only be available for those people, but experts expect it to eventually become more widely available. The pills are designed to be taken as soon as possible once a person shows symptoms of having COVID — a time when the virus is replicating rapidly and the immune system has not yet mounted a defense. In Merck’s trial, volunteers had to have shown symptoms within the past five days, and some researchers think the pills must be taken even earlier to be most effective. Merck said the drug cut the risk of hospitalization or death in half. In the Phase 3 trial, 7% of volunteers in the group that received the drug were hospitalized, and none died. In the group that got a placebo, 14% were hospitalized or died. The 50% efficacy is lower than monoclonal antibodies, the intravenous cocktail used to treat high-risk people with mild or moderate COVID. Studies have shown that those antibodies reduce hospitalizations and deaths by up to 85% among those patients. But experts said the new antiviral pills will most likely have a bigger overall impact on COVID than the cumbersome antibodies, because the pills can reach more people. Merck said on Friday that it plans to seek emergency authorization from the Food and Drug Administration as soon as possible. Regulators could then authorize the drug before the end of this year, if all goes well.
Many health workers at big U.S. hospital chains with vaccine mandates are getting shots. Hundreds of sought-after nurses are leaving some U.S. hospitals that have established vaccine requirements for all employees, involving some protests and legal opposition. But most workers, especially at large hospital chains, appear to be complying with the policies.New York hospitals and nursing homes are grappling with the state’s Monday deadline for workers to have received at least one coronavirus vaccine dose, with thousands of workers remaining unvaccinated and at risk of being fired. Several other states and cities have also imposed mandates for health care workers, with deadlines approaching.All are also facing a looming federal vaccine mandate for hospital and nursing home staff that President Biden ordered, though its exact scope and timing has yet to be announced.The departures, especially of nurses, have compounded major staffing shortages over the course of the pandemic. The situation has become acutely difficult these past few months, particularly in regions where the Delta variant has overwhelmed hospitals and caused new spikes in Covid cases among nursing home staffs and residents. In one instance, a hospital in upstate New York said it briefly had to stop delivering babies after six of its employees left rather than get vaccinated.At Novant Health, a large hospital group based in North Carolina,375 workers were suspended after not meeting the system’s vaccination deadline this month. Another 200 agreed to comply, increasing the vaccination rate to over 99 percent of its more than 35,000 employees, according to Novant. Yet the loss of some employees “is going to be the cost of doing business in a pandemic,” “I’m not seeing any widespread disruptive effect,”Dr. David H. Priest, an infectious-disease specialist and senior executive at Novant, said he believed that the hospital would persuade most of its workers by addressing their concerns. The hospital has “been working on this for weeks on end,” he said, by holding webinars and sending emails to help educate employees about the benefits of being immunized.How the nation’s hospitals are handling the holdouts varies widely, and many facilities are waiting for federal guidelines. Others have set deadlines later this year.Many hospitals are not establishing sharp cutoffs for when they might eventually fire someone.
Vaccine mandates complicate hospital staffing woes in Wyoming. - The coronavirus is raging in the northern states of the Mountain West, especially Wyoming, where the Delta variant is tearing through one of the least vaccinated areas in the country.Wyoming is tied with its neighbor Idaho for the second-lowest vaccination rate of any U.S. state. Each has fully vaccinated 41 percent of residents, compared with 56 percent nationally. And newly reported virus cases are at their highest levels since November in Wyoming and neighboring Montana.Covid-19 patients are filling Wyoming’s hospitals and stretching health care workers thin, leading to the cancellation of elective procedures at some hospitals. Some patients are traveling as far away as Texas for care.Unlike hospitals in many states, most in Wyoming are not requiring their employees to be vaccinated. Some hospital administrators worry that President Biden’s national vaccine mandate for health care workers, which has yet to take effect, could prompt some workers to quit, making staffing shortages more severe.“We’re near bursting at the seams, and a lot of that has to do not really with the number of beds we have available, but with the staffing for those beds,” said Eric Boley, the president of the Wyoming Hospitals Association, a trade group that represents most of the state’s hospitals.“I don’t think they realize what a delicate balancing act it is to try to have enough trained staff,” he said of federal officials.Gov. Mark Gordon of Wyoming has encouraged vaccinations but resisted requiring them. He issued a directive in May that prevents state agencies, boards and commissions from restricting access based on vaccine status, and the state is preparing a possible legal challenge to Mr. Biden’s mandates.Mr. Gordon has activated the Wyoming National Guard to provide nonmedical support for hospitals with staff shortages, andallocated more than $20 million to help hospitals hire and pay extra workers.Dr. Mark Dowell, the health officer for Natrona County, said the governor’s approach was out of sync with the reality on the ground.“It’s become political instead of medical,” said Dr. Dowell, an infectious disease specialist. “There has been basically no major activity at a state level to acknowledge or deal with this — it’s almost as if it doesn’t exist.” He added that because anti-vaccine sentiment was so pervasive in Wyoming, vaccine mandates were needed “simply to save lives.”Many health care workers do not need the extra push, said Mike McCafferty, the chief executive of Sheridan Memorial Hospital. He said that more than 70 percent of his hospital’s employees had been vaccinated without using an incentive or mandates.
Rural Americans now dying of COVID-19 at twice the rate of those in urban environments: research - A study released this month found that the rates of COVID-19 cases and deaths in rural areas have far surpassed those being observed in metropolitan communities, with rural mortality rates more than double that of urban ones. The study from the Rural Policy Research Institute's (RUPRI) Center for Rural Health Policy found that as the summer ended, the coronavirus infection and mortality rates of rural and urban communities began to diverge. RUPRI noted in its study that the initial surges of COVID-19 cases at the start of the pandemic were largely concentrated in urban areas. Subsequent surges saw increases in both urban and rural parts of the U.S. "However, it was at that time that nonmetropolitan incidence and mortality rates surpassed those in metropolitan areas. Both rates were higher in nonmetropolitan areas during the third surge until its peak in January 2021," RUPRI's report read. "Incidence and mortality rates are currently much higher in nonmetropolitan counties than those in metropolitan counties." As of mid-September, metropolitan areas were seeing a seven-day average death rate of 0.41 while urban communities had an average death rate of 0.85. The average number of cases and deaths in both types of areas began to rise after having dropped and plateaued somewhat in the summer months, however, the numbers in rural areas quickly outpaced the rates seen in metropolitan ones. In the last three months, RUPRI's study noted that the seven-day moving average for cases in urban and rural areas were largely the same until August. Currently the seven-day moving average in rural areas is 66.8 confirmed cases per 100,000 while in urban areas it is around 43.3 cases. “There is a national disconnect between perception and reality when it comes to Covid in rural America,” Alan Morgan, head of the National Rural Health Association, told NBC News. “We’ve turned many rural communities into kill boxes. And there's no movement towards addressing what we're seeing in many of these communities, either among the public, or among governing officials.” NBC noted that apart from lower vaccination rates and a higher amount of infections, rural communities tend to have higher rates of poor health in general, with the pandemic compounding these pre-existing conditions.
Explosion of COVID-19 cases in Wisconsin continues as schools remain fully open -Wisconsin is in the midst of an enormous COVID-19 outbreak that is not showing any signs of slowing down or plateauing in the coming weeks. On September 20, 7,832 new confirmed cases of COVID-19 were reported, with the average number of daily cases reaching over 3,100, as of September 23. Northwestern Wisconsin has been hit especially hard with a large number of unvaccinated residents falling sick to the Delta variant. While deaths have remained low, at 13 per day, fatalities tend to rise in the weeks following mass outbreaks. In the last two weeks of June, the average number of confirmed cases of COVID-19 per day in the state of Wisconsin had slipped down into double digits for the first time since March 2020. As with many other states, mask mandates were lifted and all social distancing measures were removed from indoor and outdoor gatherings. But by the end of July, the more highly transmissible and lethal Delta variant had begun to spread, raising the daily average of confirmed cases back into the hundreds. Now, with schools fully open and operational weeks after the Labor Day holiday, daily COVID-19 cases are back in the thousands. The surge of cases will most likely not peak until October. As of last week, two counties in Wisconsin were designated as having “critically high” levels of transmission, a designation that had to be reinstated by the state, considering the massive number of new cases. As of September 21, the number of counties with critically high transmission was eight. Meanwhile, vaccinations have plateaued since early September, with 60 percent of residents fully vaccinated and 56 percent with at least one dose. The rise in cases has pushed the Wisconsin health care system to the brink of collapse. Ninety-five percent of all ICU beds and medical-surgical beds in the state are in use, according to data from the Wisconsin Hospital Association. In north Wisconsin there are zero beds available in the region’s 17 hospitals. Patients are also coming in very sick, meaning they are staying in the hospital longer. The lack of beds and resources poses a grave risk even to those not infected. In an interview with Fox6, University of Wisconsin (UW) chief health quality officer Dr. Jeff Pothoff said, “The critical care capacity is so maximized that … if your emergency happens at the wrong time of the day and there are no ICU beds within 100 miles of your location, that takes risks with your life.” Those who need emergency medical attention in any capacity are at risk of death or of having to cross state lines in order to find a bed and treatment.
In Well-Vaccinated Maine, Covid-19 Still Fills Hospitals With the Unvaccinated – WSJ - The Delta variant is finding clusters of unvaccinated people even in some of the best-vaccinated parts of the country, such as Maine. A Covid-19 surge in the New England state has filled hospitals and put dozens of mostly unvaccinated people on ventilators, setting records for the state. The problem, public-health experts say, is the variant’s high transmissibility combined with the relaxation of precautions such as wearing masks. Covid-19 infections and hospitalizations have also flared among mostly unvaccinated people in Vermont and western Massachusetts, highlighting the risk Delta poses even in states with the best track records for getting shots in arms. “The Delta variant is so much more contagious that it doesn’t need much kindling to continue to burn,” said Dora Anne Mills, chief health improvement officer at nonprofit health system MaineHealth. New England leads the nation in Covid-19 inoculations, which health experts say provides a buffer against the virus. Nearly 69% of Maine’s total population of roughly 1.4 million is fully vaccinated, putting the state far ahead of the nation’s 56% full-vaccination rate for the entire population while trailing only Vermont and Connecticut. Public-health experts and doctors said they don’t believe New England on the whole will see Covid-19 hospitalizations and deaths come close to the same levels as last winter. Still, many Northern states face a test in coming months as the weather turns colder and people head inside, where respiratory viruses can easily spread, and as people get together for the holidays.Despite some signs of improvements at Maine hospitals this week, the facilities are under significant strain, said Nirav Shah, director of the Maine Center for Disease Control and Prevention. He told reporters Wednesday that it was too soon to say the current surge is in retreat. The state went from four people on ventilators at one point in July to more than 40 by mid-September. By Wednesday, the tally was 31, Dr. Shah said. Hospitals say a significant majority of ventilated patients are unvaccinated, according to the state.
Coronavirus dashboard for September 29: the demographics of disease and death - The Delta wave continues to roll out just about as swiftly as in rolled in. Cases are down almost 33% nationwide, including in all 4 regions: And all 5 States that were the worst hit at the outset - AR, FL, LA, MO, and MS - are all continuing to decline. Below I show them, plus RI, which is #25 among the 25 lowest States + DC. In other words, all the early poster children for Delta are now in the bottom half of all States for new infections: Only 5 States are in any kind of uptrend at all - AK, MI, MN, ND, and NE: Note that all of them are near or at the northern border with Canada, and here is Canada itself, plus MI and MN: Alberta in particular is likened by Canadians to Texas in the US. So you have two of the (even) colder provinces, which are also the “libertarian” conservative provinces, having the worst records. In other words, Delta continues to migrate north, and continues to hit the least vaccinated areas the hardest. I hasten to add, however, that even with this relatively “good” news, the number of case is still far higher than at any point during the worst of the spring or summer 2020 waves: As of one week ago, there had been only 544 deaths from COVID among children since the beginning of the pandemic. In other words, measured per capita, COVID (so far) has caused only 1/3rd the percentage of deaths compared with the 1918 Flu; and among the young, it has been far, far less deadly (so far, according to one graph I have seen, it is roughly equivalent to the number of children who die from influenza each year). But haven’t we heard that Delta has been attacking the young at a much higher rate than the original strain of the disease? Yes, we have, and yes, according to the below graph it is true: You can see that, per capita, Delta has attacked those two ages the most, followed right behind by the 12-15 demographic, and then the 5-12, 18-29, and 30-39 demographics virtually in a tie. Note that by contrast, children were among the least hit by the original strain last autumn and winter. Delta continues to kill at the highest rate the oldest demographics in reverse chronological order. But because there are far fewer people over age 75, and also fewer in the 65-74 demographic, the raw *number* of people under 65 killed by Delta is larger, giving us fatalities of about 2000/day. But this is still a vaccine success story, because over 80% of people over 65 are fully vaccinated. Deaths among the 65-74 demographic are only about 1/3rd of what they were last winter, and deaths among those over 75 are less than 1/5th what they were!
Missouri sees a 24.2% drop in reported COVID cases from Aug. to Sept. – Health officials in Missouri are reporting a 24.2% drop in COVID cases reported in September compared to August. The decrease is significant enough to offset August’s extra day. According to the Missouri Department of Health and Senior Services, the state has recorded 676,734 cumulative cases of SARS-CoV-2—an increase of 1,385 positive cases (PCR testing only)—and 11,493 total deaths as of Thursday, Sept. 30, an increase of 8 over yesterday. That’s a case fatality rate of 1.70%. Please keep in mind that not all cases and deaths recorded occurred in the last 24 hours. State health officials report 53.6% of the total population has received at least one dose of the vaccine. Approximately 65% of all adults 18 years of age and older have initiated the process. The state has administered 65,455 doses of vaccine in the last 7 days (this metric is subject to a delay, meaning the last three days are not factored in). The highest vaccination rates are among people over 65. The city of Joplin, St. Louis, St. Charles, and Boone counties are the only jurisdictions in the state with at least 50% of its population fully vaccinated. Nineteen other jurisdictions in the state are at least 40% fully vaccinated: Atchison, Cole, Jackson, Franklin, Greene, Cape Girardeau, Jefferson, Nodaway, Cass, Ste. Genevieve, Carroll, Andrew, Callaway, Gasconade, Christian, and Benton counties, as well as St. Louis City, Kansas City, and Independence.
COVID-19 Cases Going Down, Hospitalizations Remain High - Health leaders released good news Thursday. COVID-19 cases have continued to decline. "This week cases were 41% lower than the peak 7-day average when 2,806 cases were reported on August 30th,” said Dr. Lance Frye, the state commissioner of health. State health officials said they remain cautiously optimistic that the downward trajectory of cases is the delta variant beginning to burn itself out. "It seems to come on quickly and surge faster than the original virus does, and it does seem to come down again faster than before as well,” said Frye. Hospitalizations have also started to trend down, but doctors say they still remain high, straining hospitals across the metro. “We saw really sick patients the first time around,” said Dr. David Chansolme. “I see very sick patients this time around and they remain on a ventilator a very, very long time." Many patients hospitalized with COVID-19 are a younger age group in this surge. “They are going to be able to fight more as compared to others with medical conditions may not be able to sustain as long as a course,” said Chansolme. Chansolme said they have seen some amazing recoveries. But as for long term effects from delta, that remains to be seen. "What happens at six months, 9 months for those folks? I don't think we know yet.” said Chansolme.
More than 1,000 COVID-19 deaths in Illinois in September - While the summer surge of coronavirus driven by the highly contagious delta variant appears to be waning, September marked the deadliest month of the pandemic in Illinois since February, when the state was coming off the massive wave of fall and winter cases.The state reported 42 additional fatalities Thursday for a total of 1,023 in September, more than double the death toll of 506 in August and more than four times July’s 222 fatalities.It was the first time more than 1,000 deaths were reported in a month since February, when 1,273 were recorded. Deaths are a lagging indicator of the virus’s spread as can it take weeks for someone who gets infected to succumb to the disease. The pandemic’s deadliest month in Illinois was December, when 4,212 people died of COVID-19, according to state data. As of Thursday, the statewide death toll stood at 24,976 since the pandemic began.
Florida COVID update: cases, deaths, vaccines -Florida on Thursday reported 938 more deaths and 4,781 additional COVID-19 cases to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, according to Miami Herald calculations of CDC data. All but 78 of the newly reported deaths — about 92% — occurred since Sept. 2, according to the Herald analysis. About 55% of the newly reported died in the past two weeks, the analysis showed. In all, Florida has recorded at least 3,570,752 confirmed COVID cases and 55,009 deaths. In this most recent phase of the pandemic, Florida through the CDC has reported deaths in Monday and Thursday clumps. In the past seven days, on average, the state has added 272 deaths and 5,612 cases to the daily cumulative total, according to Herald analysis of CDC data. This is the state’s lowest 7-day death average since Sept. 1, when Florida averaged 263 daily deaths.
US hits 700,000 COVID deaths just as cases begin to fall --The United States reached its latest heartbreaking pandemic milestone Friday, eclipsing 700,000 deaths from COVID-19 just as the surge from the delta variant is starting to slow down and give overwhelmed hospitals some relief. It took 3 ½ months for the U.S. to go from 600,000 to 700,000 deaths, driven by the variant’s rampant spread through unvaccinated Americans. The death toll is larger than the population of Boston. This milestone is especially frustrating to public health leaders and medical professionals on the front lines because vaccines have been available to all eligible Americans for nearly six months and the shots overwhelmingly protect against hospitalizations and death. An estimated 70 million eligible Americans remain unvaccinated, providing kindling for the variant. “You lose patients from COVID and it should not happen,” said Debi Delapaz, a nurse manager at UF Health Jacksonville who recalled how the hospital was at one point losing eight patients a day to COVID-19 during the summer surge. “This is something that should not happen.” Despite the rising death toll, there are signs of improvement. Nationwide, the number of people now in the hospital with COVID-19 has fallen to somewhere around 75,000 from over 93,000 in early September. New cases are on the downswing at about 112,000 per day on average, a drop of about one-third over the past 2 1/2 weeks. Deaths, too, appear to be declining, averaging about 1,900 a day versus more than 2,000 about a week ago.
COVID-19 Declines Back To Winter Surge Levels - COVID-19 has entered a relative decline compared to the worst of the winter surge, says leadership from the Mississippi State Department of Health. #“We continue to see some declines in our case numbers and that's been encouraging,” State Epidemiologist Dr. Paul Byers said during a Sept. 24 press briefing for the Mississippi State Medical Association. #Mississippi’s rate of COVID-19 infection is now back at levels seen during the start of 2021, though Byers cautions that the fall in infection rates is only relative. “It looks like it's a pretty dramatic decline that we're experiencing right now, but we're just now to the levels of where we were at the peak of our winter surge that we had over December and January,” Byers said. “All of those cases are still translating into a lot of deaths. We had over a thousand deaths in Mississippi in August. We're certainly on pace for that now.” State Health Officer Thomas Dobbs noted in his own Sept. 24 video update that while Mississippi saw an average decline in daily cases and hospitalizations, the state remains the No. 1 state in the nation for COVID-19 mortality. Dobbs anticipates additional deaths in coming days. Even as COVID-19 hospitalizations decline, an uptick in other causes is keeping bed usage and intensive-care unit use at “historically high levels,” Dobbs said. “If we look at our hospital utilization we have 700 folks in the hospital with COVID and declining numbers for our ICU and life support patients,” Dobbs said. “Again, sadly though, many of these won't make it back home, so we'll anticipate seeing additional deaths in coming days.”
COVID surge in Singapore despite 80 percent vaccination Singapore, which has been regarded as a model in combatting COVID-19, has been compelled to tighten public health restrictions amid a surge of cases and deaths related to the highly infectious Delta variant of the virus. The government had begun lifting restrictions, having adopted a “living with COVID” policy based on the fact that more than 80 percent of the city’s population is fully vaccinated. As new cases rapidly multiplied, however, health authorities have been forced to reverse course. Yesterday, the number of cases set a new daily record of 2,236 by noon, with five more deaths. Of those, 2,226 were local cases, comprising 1,711 in the community and 515 among migrant workers living in dormitories. Since the pandemic began, Singapore has had 91,775 cases overall and a death toll of 85. The latest surge has taken place over the past month, from just 32 cases on August 20 to a daily figure of more than 1,000 by September 19. The daily case numbers have more than doubled over the past 10 days and are predicted to rise to more than 6,000. As of yesterday, the death toll for September was 30—a record monthly figure and over a third of all COVID deaths. Health authorities were at pains to play down the significance of the latest outbreak, pointing out that the majority of cases were asymptomatic and mild. The five people who died were elderly and had underlying conditions, but no details were provided. Nevertheless, 1,325 COVID-19 patients were in hospital. While most were described as being well, 209 required oxygen supplementation and 30 were in critical condition in an intensive care unit (ICU).
Asia, once a vaccination laggard, revs up inoculations. -As the United States and Europe ramped up Covid-19 vaccinations, countries in the Asia-Pacific region, once lauded for their pandemic response, struggled with their inoculation programs. Now, many of those countries that lagged behind are speeding ahead, lifting hopes of a return to normalcy in an area that had been resigned to repeated lockdowns and onerous restrictions.The turnabout is as much a testament to the region’s success insecuring supplies and working out the kinks in their programs as it is to vaccine hesitancy and political opposition in the United States.Japan, Malaysia and South Korea have even pulled ahead of the United States in the number of vaccine doses administered per 100 people — a pace that seemed unthinkable in the spring. Several have surpassed the United States in the percentage of their populations that are fully vaccinated, or are on track to do so.In South Korea, the authorities said that vaccines had helped keep most people out of the hospital. In Japan, new cases and hospitalizations have plummeted.“It’s almost like the tortoise and the hare,” said Jerome Kim, the director general of the International Vaccine Institute, a nonprofit based in Seoul. “Asia was always going to use vaccines when they became available.” In contrast with the United States, vaccines were never apolarizing issue in the Asia-Pacific region. Although each country has had to contend with its own anti-vaccine movements, the opposition has been relatively small.
Most African countries missed a target to vaccinate 10 percent of their people. — Only nine African countries have met a target of vaccinating 10 percent of their populations against Covid-19 by the end of September, the World Health Organization said on Thursday — a statistic that illustrates how far the continent is lagging behind global vaccination rates.The W.H.O. set the benchmark this year, as part of a push for every country to vaccinate at least 40 percent of its people by the end of 2021.Just 4 percent of Africa’s population is fully vaccinated, with “still a long way to go” to reach the end-of-year target, Dr. Richard Mihigo, the W.H.O.’s program coordinator for vaccine development in Africa, told a news conference on Thursday.Of the nine countries that met the goal, several have relatively small populations, including the island nations of Mauritius and the Seychelles, which have fully vaccinated two-thirds of their residents.Although the infection rate in Africa has generally remained lower than on other continents, the low levels of inoculation increase the risk that new variants could emerge as the virus continues to circulate, experts said.The W.H.O. has reliable data for 52 of the 54 African countries — Eritrea has supplied no statistics, and Tanzania only partial figures. About half have vaccinated less than 3 percent of their residents, including many of the most populous, like Nigeria, Congo, Kenya and Uganda.The continent has suffered from vaccine shortages, made worse by a shortfall in deliveries from the global vaccine-sharing initiative, Covax. Wealthy countries that pledged to support the initiative have given it only a fraction of the promised doses.Wealthier countries have administered the majority of Covid-19 shots around the world. That pattern has been the same in Africa, where countries with more advanced economies, including South Africa, Morocco and Botswana, have outpaced their poorer neighbors. “In Africa, the major issue has been a supply issue rather than a demand issue,” Dr. Mihigo said, adding that vaccine hesitancy has been a concern “here and there.” The W.H.O. said it was working to identify bottlenecks in countries where limited technical capacity to deliver vaccines has hampered inoculation campaigns.
COVID-19 cases surge among school children in Spain - Two weeks after all schools in Spain reopened after the summer break, COVID-19 is clearly infecting growing numbers of children. Children have the highest incidence rates of the virus, due to the reopening of schools by the Socialist Party (PSOE)-Podemos government, the spread of the highly infectious Delta variant, and the fact that this age group is still unvaccinated. The incidence ratesin the past two weeks among children below 11 years of age stands at 113 per 100,000. Those under 11 years are followed by the 30–39-year bracket (70.12 per 100,000); 40-49 (64.61); over 80 (63.83); 20-29 (63.12); 12-19 (57.11); between 60 and 69 (49.69); between 50 and 59 (49.46); and between 70 and 79 (48.64). Data on contagion in schools and the numbers of schools and classes closed or in quarantine are scant. Spain’s regional governments, who are in charge of public education, are scarcely disclosing information. In the north-western region of Galicia, educational centers reported 364 active cases, more than double the number of active COVID-19 cases a year ago (161). Catalonia has gone from having 836 infected students on September 12, the day schools reopened, to 2,439 two weeks later. The number of classrooms closed due to infections is also growing. In the first week after schools reopened, there were 127 quarantined classrooms. According to the Confederation of Teaching Trade Unions, there were over 1,000 classrooms quarantined in the last three weeks of September. In Catalonia, schools recorded 246 quarantined groups yesterday, 26 more than the previous week. There are 7,176 people from the educational community in quarantine, 690 more than in the previous count: 6,871 students, 293 educators and 12 external workers. Valencia authorities confined 64 classrooms at 44 educational centers in the fourth week of September.
Stronger regulations needed on common obesity-promoting chemicals --Everyday exposure to obesity-promoting chemicals (obesogens) represents a significant risk to public health, and needs stronger regulation to minimise exposure and protect people’s health, according to evidence presented today at the 59th Annual European Society for Paediatric Endocrinology Meeting. The long-held mindset that diet and physical activity are the sole determinants of body weight has now been overturned, and it is understood that genetics and environmental factors also have an important role. However, the damaging influence of hormone-disrupting chemicals on the increasing incidence of obesity has been greatly underappreciated. A rapidly growing body of evidence indicates that these chemicals can scramble our normal metabolism and undermine our natural processes for using calories, predisposing us to weight gain.Dr Trasande and colleagues have published a number of studies on the adverse effects of human exposure to these chemicals, investigating the long-term effects, from pre-birth into adulthood, of a large, well-characterised Dutch population. In his presentation, he will present compelling evidence from these and other studies on the seriousness of exposure to obesogens, including the dangers of three very common chemicals that we often encounter in our everyday lives.
- Bisphenols, found in aluminium can lining and thermal receipts, make fat cells larger and predispose us to store fat.
- Phthalates, found in personal care products and food packaging, can reprogramme how our bodies metabolise protein, pushing it to store fat, regardless of our physical activity level or diet.
- PFOS, found on non-stick cookware and water-resistant clothing, have been shown to misprogramme the body to store fat, even when external conditions indicate you should burn fat calories, such as in cold temperatures. In adults that lost weight following a healthy diet with physical activity, higher PFOS levels were associated with more regain of weight later.
Congressional Report on Toxic Metals in Baby Food Spurs Demand for FDA Action - A new congressional report released Wednesday revealing the baby food industry has failed to keep products with heavy metals off the shelves spurred calls for federal authorities to enact swift action and tough limits on toxin levels."This is what happens when you let the food and chemical companies, not the FDA, decide whether our food is safe to eat," said Scott Faber, senior vice president for government affairs at Environmental Working Group (EWG), in a statement."For too long," he said, "the FDA has allowed food and chemical companies to exploit loopholes to taint our food with 'forever chemicals,' jet fuel, and toxic metals like lead and arsenic."Faber's comments followed the release of a report from a House Oversight subcommittee that found in part that popular companies Gerber and Beech-Nut failed to sufficiently recall infant rice cereals tested to have inorganic arsenic levels above FDA limits.The publication came after the panel, the Subcommittee on Economic and Consumer Policy, previously warned in a February report that most baby food manufacturers don't test finished products for levels of toxic metals, instead only testing individual ingredients and vastly underestimating such levels in their finished products.The new report, according to subcommittee chair Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi (D-Ill.), "reveals that companies not only under-report the high levels of toxic content in their baby food, but also knowingly keep toxic products on the market.""The facts speak for themselves," he said, "and the fact of the matter is that the baby food industry has consistently cut corners and put profit over the health of babies and children."Another company under scrutiny in the new report is Plum Organics. All of the company's Super Puff rice-based products tested between 2017 and 2019 were found to have arsenic levels over 200 ppb—that's in contrast to the FDA's 10 ppb limit for bottled water, the report noted. Over half of the company's products had level levels above the cap set for bottled water, and over 38% had cadmium levels above the FDA's bottled water threshold.Walmart was accused of taking "a giant step backwards in protecting babies from toxic heavy metals.""For six years," the report states, "Walmart set an internal maximum inorganic arsenic limit of 23 ppb for its finished baby foods. However, in 2018, Walmart abandoned that more- protective standard, more than quadrupling it to a standard allowing 100 ppb inorganic arsenic in its baby foods. Walmart offered no justification for its extreme course reversal on protecting babies' neurological development."
Infants have more microplastics in their feces than adults, study finds -- Microplastics — tiny plastic pieces less than 5 mm in size — are everywhere, from indoor dust to food to bottled water. So it’s not surprising that scientists have detected these particles in the feces of people and pets. Now, in a small pilot study, researchers reporting in ACS’ Environmental Science & Technology Letters discovered that infants have higher amounts of one type of microplastic in their stool than adults. Health effects, if any, are uncertain.Little is known about the magnitude of human exposure to microplastics or their health effects. Although microplastics were once thought to pass harmlessly through the gastrointestinal tract and exit the body, recent studies suggest that the tiniest pieces can cross cell membranes and enter the circulation. In cells and laboratory animals, microplastic exposure can cause cell death, inflammation and metabolic disorders. Kurunthachalam Kannan at the New York University School of Medicine and colleagues wanted to assess human exposure to two common microplastics — polyethylene terephthalate (PET) and polycarbonate (PC) — by measuring levels in infant and adult feces. The researchers used mass spectrometry to determine the concentrations of PET and PC microplastics in six infant and 10 adult feces samples collected from New York state, as well as in three samples of meconium (a newborn infant’s first stool). All samples contained at least one type of microplastic. Although average levels of fecal PC microplastics were similar between adults and infants, infant stool contained, on average, more than 10 times higher PET concentrations than that of adults. Infants could be exposed to higher levels of microplastics through their extensive use of products such as bottles, teethers and toys, the researchers say. However, they note that larger studies are needed to corroborate these findings.
Northrop Grumman Knew Chemical Contaminated Missouri Homes: Lawsuit -Defense company Northrop Grumman knew for more than a decade that chemicals from a site it owns near Missouri’s Springfield-Branson Airport were contaminating groundwater in surrounding property, according to a federal lawsuit filed Sept. 29. The lawsuit claims Northrop Grumman, which is based in Virginia, did not notify residents their groundwater may be contain trichloroethylene, or TCE, which causes cancer. The contamination came to light only after TCE was detected near the Fantastic Caverns tourist site near Springfield in 2018, according to the lawsuit. The lawsuit was filed on behalf of two Springfield families who said the contamination made their land and businesses “worthless” and led to health problems. Attorneys from Peiffer Wolf Carr Kane & Conway are seeking class action certification to represent other affected families. Vic Beck, a spokesman for Northrop Grumman said the company had not yet seen the lawsuit. He said the company has worked closely with the Missouri Department of Natural Resources and the community for 20 years to address environmental concerns at the site. The property was previously owned by Litton Industries, which used TCE to manufacture circuit boards. Northrup Grumman bought the site in 2001 and knew at the time about the contamination, according to the lawsuit.
USDA pledges billions for climate-smart farm projects, resilience - Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack said today he’ll use billions of dollars from a Depression-era agency to pay for a carbon-saving program for farms, and to help farmers prepare for drought and adverse weather associated with climate change. In a speech at Colorado State University, Vilsack said he would transfer money from the Commodity Credit Corp. for a variety of efforts, including a proposed pilot program to test conservation practices’ carbon benefits and to more closely monitor for diseases such as African swine fever, which has appeared as close by as Haiti and the Dominican Republic. Drought in the Southwest has been “unyielding, unprecedented and unforgiving,” and farmers in the South and Northeast have been swamped by heavy rain and wind, Vilsack said in announcing the first of two infusion of funds – $3 billion now for the assistance, and more in fiscal 2022 for the carbon pilot program, details of which are to be determined. “All of these folks need help,” he said. Vilsack’s move is certain to recharge a debate over the most appropriate uses of the Commodity Credit Corp., created decades ago to support U.S. agriculture and uphold prices through the purchase of farm goods, for instance. Congressional Republicans have said they worry that the Biden administration will use the CCC to support a carbon bank or carbon markets, taking funding away from its traditional uses — a charge Vilsack addressed directly today. “This is not a carbon bank or a carbon market,” Vilsack said, adding that it’s “first and foremost a commodity program.” In his speech, Vilsack cast the initiative as supporting “climate-smart commodities,” or farm goods produced through practices that address carbon emissions their effect on the climate. The announcement also reflects Vilsack’s comments during congressional hearings this year that he sees the CCC has having wide authorities and a broad mission of support for farmers. The agency has an annual budget of about $30 billion. Carbon pilot projects would encourage farming practices already included in USDA programs, such as the use of cover crops or reduced tillage, and would monitor the results in carbon emissions or sequestration. Of the $3 billion, $500 million would go to drought recovery and adoption of water-saving practices; $500 million to help producers hurt by agricultural market disruptions; and $500 million to prevent the spread of African swine fever, which Vilsack said could cost thousands of jobs and disrupt the U.S. hog industry.
Fertilizer Prices Soar Near 2008 Highs on Supply Shocks, Concerns Sprout Over Sourcing Enough for 2022 U.S. Corn Acres - The fertilizer industry is swarmed with Black Swan events. From the impacts of Hurricane Ida to political and climate issues entangled in a cobweb of production slowdowns in Europe and China, the Black Swan events continue to stack up. According to Josh Linville of StoneX Group, on Monday, the Chinese government effectively banned phosphate exports through June 2022. The news comes as China's production was already throttled by climate emission concerns from production plants. The impact is already being seen with prices, as China accounts for almost one-third of the world phosphate trade. The phosphate ban is just the latest in a series of events that are leading to a supply shock for fertilizer ahead of the 2022 growing season. And that supply shock is creating a price spike that can only compare to 2008, with concerns the most recent strains could cause prices to surpass the record-high fertilizer prices farmers saw in 2008. “In 2008, we had a little bit more of a lead up to it,” says Linville. “And we started from a slightly higher price. We started the 2008 saga closer to probably $350 a (metric) tonne NOLA urea, and we spiked out about $825. So, we are not at the historic highs yet, even though it feels like it. We're not quite there. The problem with this one, though, is back in 2008, it was all demand driven. We never had problems finding supply, it was just, 'What price are you willing to pay to get your hands on it?' This one is much more supply driven.”The supply-driven factors continue to add up. In addition to a spike in shipping costs, energy prices are soaring this week, with natural gas prices spiking to more than $6 per metric million British thermal unit (mmbtu), nearing the 2014 peak. It’s a factor that could drive up costs for nitrogen even further this year as the supply issues seem to be appearing from nearly every angle, with a laundry list of issues impacting fertilizer availability and prices. “Hurricane Ida destroyed production down in the Delta,” says Linville. “We have inland production points that are having problems because of repairs that were made during the COVID situation. We've got China, the world's largest urea producer, who has cut exports because they're keeping it at home for their producers. You've got European production having issues because of natural gas price. There is serious, serious concern. We've been crying wolf for a lot of years that 'Hey, there may be a season we can't find product.' But we always find a way. This one has a lot of the markings that say this could be the nightmare.”
Project removes old, disused dams to make healthier waterways – VTDigger - A yellow excavator ambled over the uneven bed of the Second Branch of the White River as it rearranged boulders above the Hyde Dam earlier this month. Within weeks, the dam will be gone, opening 60 miles of waterways for fish passage.From the 1700s to the 1950s, hydropower ruled and the Hyde Dam in turn gave life to a sawmill, a gristmill, a creamery and a woolen mill that employed over 30 workers in 1860. The current dam replaced an older dam destroyed in what is known as the Great Vermont Flood of 1927.These days, industry has departed from the Second Branch. A half-acre plot of empty land on the north side of the dam gives no hint of the artifacts of production buried below. The mill that leans on the southern edge of the dam is now a home. Conservation nonprofits and state agencies worked together to remove the dam, part of a statewide effort to remove out-of-use dams to improve rivers for both wildlife and people.Greg Russ, a watershed restoration coordinator at the White River Partnership who is overseeing the project, estimated that it will cost anywhere between $120,000 and $150,000. He listed many reasons to remove the dam, for both the community and the river. The water behind a dam gets “really, really stagnant,” he said.“Sediment and nutrients settle out behind the dams. We have (seen) poor water quality downstream of the dams, especially after a rain event,” Russ said. “We think a dam makes a perfect breeding ground for bacteria — really warm, stagnant conditions.” The White River Partnership’s analysis of data before and immediately after a dam removal shows that “bacteria and nutrient levels drop drastically,” Russ said. The project’s coordinators also hope that the dam’s demise will benefit trout.
How climate change gave rise to a monster mosquito season - Summer may be officially over, but mosquito season is showing no sign of abating. It was an unusually warm summer — the hottest summer on record for the contiguous United States — and that has helped mosquitoes thrive. But experts say the chief reasons for the explosion in mosquito populations this year are the season’s record-breaking storms and above-average rainfall in many states. Parts of the Northeast received a foot of rain in just three weeks in July, due to a series of back-to-back thunderstorms and the remnants of Hurricane Elsa. In August, Tropical Storm Fred and its remnants doused the East Coast from Florida to Massachusetts, and Tropical Storm Henri hit New England head on. Less than two weeks later, Ida soaked the Gulf Coast as a Category 4 and blasted the Northeast with record-breaking amounts of rainfall as a disorganized storm system. Meanwhile, in the Southwest, a “super” monsoon season eased drought conditions in parts of Arizona, producing Tuscon’s wettest month on record in July. Climate change plays a role in exacerbating these storms. The air becomes 4 percent more saturated with water for every 1 degree Fahrenheit that the planet warms. The most torrential downpours in the Northeast now unleash 55 percent more rain compared to the 1950s, according to the most recent National Climate Assessment, and could increase another 40 percent by the end of the century. Unfortunately for humans, the abundance of mosquitoes varies massively with rainfall. The more rain there is, the more scattered pools of water there are across the landscape that the insects can use to lay their eggs in. This summer’s rains basically turned half of the U.S. into a perfect breeding ground for mosquito larvae. It’s early to say how, exactly, this year stacks up to previous years in terms of mosquito populations. But the uptick in mosquitoes has been clocked by experts and officials in multiple states so far. “This is actually one of the worst mosquito seasons in recent memory with a record number of the bugs plaguing communities across New York,” Senator Chuck Schumer, Democrat from New York, said at a press conference over the weekend. He called on federal agencies to make funds available to New York to fight off the invasion. In Luzerne County, Pennsylvania, officials told a local news station that 2021 has brought more mosquitoes to their county than they’ve seen in the past decade. In New Orleans, city officials reported more mosquitoes than usual, and nearby St. Tammany Parish reported a 300 percent increase in two types of mosquitoes.
Infrastructure for Insects: Congress Should Invest in Bees and Butterflies - Monarch butterflies have started their journey to the groves where they'll spend the winter. Monarchs west of the Rocky Mountains have a long trip to the California coast before them, while eastern monarchs have a hefty 3,000-mile trek to the forests of Mexico.Despite their hardy nature, monarchs have suffered severe population losses. In the past several decades the eastern population has declined 80%, while its western counterpart has fared even more poorly. In the West, monarchs are at less than 0.1% of the population they had in the 1980s. Last year's winter count fell short of just 2,000 butterflies. These numbers reflect a very real threat of extinction for this iconic species.But there's hope, and it comes from an unexpected place: the Biden administration's infrastructure agenda.In addition to supporting traditional infrastructure such as roads and bridges, the current version of the Infrastructure Investments and Jobs Act in Congress contains funding for pollinator-friendly roadsides, as well as provisions to revegetate areas devastated by invasive species. Throughout the United States, there are 10 million acres of prime space for habitat along roadsides. Why not use it to rebuild populations for butterflies and bees? That's the opportunity before us, and the infrastructure bill would provide $2 million annually to relevant agencies for pollinator-friendly plantings. Grants of up to $150,000 would go toward much-needed projects for "planting and seeding of native, locally appropriate grasses and wildflowers, including milkweed." Other techniques to protect pollinators detailed in the bill — yes, it's that thorough — are as simple as reducing mowing frequency, timing mowing to avoid disturbing pollinators, and using pesticides more judiciously.
Unusual River Otter Attacks: Anchorage Authorities Issue Warning - 
Beware of the river otter? Authorities in Anchorage, Alaska are urging residents to do just that after a series of incidents in which a group of river otters attacked humans and pets. "Because of the risk to public safety, efforts will be made to locate this group of river otters and remove them," the Alaska Department of Fish and Game (ADF&G) said in its warning Friday. "Care will be taken to only remove the animals exhibiting these unusual behaviors." The first incident occurred Sept. 1, when a group of otters rushed and attacked nine-year-old Ayden Fernandez near a pond in East Anchorage, as the Anchorage Daily News reported at the time."Around 7 p.m. my oldest son called me, and I thought he was joking when he said, 'Mom, Ayden got bit by an otter,'" his mother, Tiffany, told the Anchorage Daily News. "And I said, 'What do you mean, an otter?'"The brothers and two friends had stopped by the pond to watch and video a group of four otters when one of them moved towards the boys."That's when they all started running. One caught up to my 9-year-old and he got attacked," Fernandez told the Anchorage Daily News. "It's pretty traumatizing for both my boys. One of them got attacked and the other one felt guilty that he couldn't help his brother."The next round of attacks took place last week, ADF&G said. In one incident, a woman was bitten when rescuing her dog from aggressive otters at University Lake. The same day, another dog was attacked by an otter at a different part of the lake. ADF&G said the same group of otters could be behind all of the incidents. Otters can travel large distances, and no otters have been seen by the first pond since the earlier attack. There have also been infrequent reports of otter attacks on dogs in the last several years. In October 2019, for example, a group of four otters attacked a husky-mix at a different Anchorage lake, pulling it under the water, HuffPost reported. The owner had to enter the water and fight them off. ADF&G wildlife biologist Dave Battle said all of the incidents with dogs he was aware of had also involved groups of four or five otters, and that it was possible the same group was behind all of the incidents in the past few years. . "Logically, I would think that it probably is, because it's such unusual behavior. It would be unlikely that multiple groups in the same city would suddenly start exhibiting the same type of behavior."
U.S. Declares 23 Species Extinct, Including Ivory-Billed Woodpecker -- The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service said it would announce 23 extinctions of birds and fish on Wednesday as the ra vages of man-made climate change and habitat destruction continue unabated. It's a rare move from scientists to completely give up hope, but the government agency said it had exhausted every avenue for rescuing the animals. Perhaps the most well-known of the newly extinct species was the American ivory-billed woodpecker, a striking bird that was native to the southeastern United States but has not had a confirmed sighting in the country since 1944." A bird this iconic, and this representative of the major old-growth forests of the southeast, keeping it on the list of endangered species keeps attention on it, keeps states thinking about managing habitat on the off chance it still exists,'' he added. All 23 were thought to have a chance of survival when they were put on the endangered species list, but pollution, logging, poaching, and invasive species made their changes minuscule. The group, which also includes a freshwater mussel called the flat pigtoe, now joins some 900 species documented as extinct around the world. S
One of the World’s Oldest Rainforests Returns to Indigenous Control - Australia's Daintree Rainforest — a World Heritage Site and one of the oldest rainforests in the world — is being returned to Indigenous ownership.The iconic forest is one of four national parks that the state government of Queensland, Australia agreed to return to the Eastern Kuku Yalanji people in a formal ceremony on Wednesday following four years of negotiations, as The AP reported."Their culture is one of the oldest living cultures and this land handback recognises their right to own and manage their Country," Environment Minister Meaghan Scanlon said on Twitter.In addition to Daintree, the deal also includes the Cedar Bay (Ngalba Bulal), Black Mountain (Kalkajaka) and Hope Islands national parks for a combined area of more than 160,000 hectares, BBC News reported. The lands will first be managed jointly by the Queensland government and the Eastern Kuku Yalanji people before being passed entirely to aboriginal control, The AP explained."It's a big thing for Eastern Kuku Yalanji people, for us bama, which means people," Chrissy Grant, a traditional owner and the incoming chair of the Wet Tropics Management Authority board, told The Guardian. "Bama across the wet tropics have consistently lived within the rainforest. That in itself is something that is pretty unique to the world heritage listing."The Daintree Rainforest is part of the Wet Tropics of Queensland UNESCO World Heritage site, CNN reported. It is considered important from a biodiversity and natural history perspective, because it is the largest part of Australia that has remained covered in rainforest since the days of the great Gondwanan forest that stretched over Australia and part of Antarctica 50 to 100 million years ago. It is also home to more than 3,000 plant species, 107 mammals, 368 birds and 113 reptiles."These living relics of the Gondwanan era and their subsequent diversification provide unique insights to the process of evolution in general," UNESCO wrote.The rainforest gained World Heritage status in 1988 as part of a bid to protect it from logging and land clearing for agriculture, BBC News explained. However, at the time, the Eastern Kuku Yalanji were not consulted, The Guardian explained."In 1988 there was no consultation with Aboriginal people and no recognition of the values of the... oldest rainforest in the world, being continuously occupied by Aboriginal people," Grant told The Guardian.The handover follows other cases in Australia in which Indigenous people have been given control of World Heritage sites like Uluru and Kakadu in Australia's Northern Territory. Grant now hopes that the most recent handover will provide a model for other groups in Australia's wet tropics hoping to regain control of their traditional lands.
Dead Forests Are Dangerous for the Planet — Here’s Why - Worldwide, dead and decaying wood releases roughly 10.9 gigatons of carbon every year. This is roughly 115% of annual fossil fuel emissions, a new study shows.The research, published in Nature, is the first time that researchers have been able to quantify the contribution of deadwood to the global carbon cycle."Until now, little has been known about the role of dead trees," study co-author David Lindenmayer from The Australian National University (ANU) told SciTech Daily. "We know living trees play a vital role in absorbing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. But up until now, we didn't know what happens when those trees decompose. It turns out, it has a massive impact."Natural processes, including temperature and insects, drive tree decomposition, Lindenmayer said. This results in a recycling of nutrients that is critically important in forests because so many organisms that comprise the base of the food chain rely on those nutrients to survive.In fact, "decomposition can't happen without wood-boring insects," SciTechDaily reported. Turns out, wood-boring insects like termites and Longicorn beetles accelerate deadwood decomposition and are even more important to carbon cycling than previously thought. Insects account for 29% of deadwood carbon release every year, the study found.This is more intense in tropical regions with high wood mass and more rapid rates of decomposition, SciTech Daily reported. Rainforests account for 93% of deadwood carbon release from around the globe, the research showed."We found both the rate of decomposition and the contribution of insects are highly dependent on the climate, and will increase as temperatures rise," Lindenmayer told the news report. Critically, as global temperatures rise due to increased greenhouse gas usage, rates of decomposition and insect contribution will also rise, the scientists found.
Southern Angola facing the worst drought since 1981, leading to severe hunger - People living in drought-stricken provinces of southern Angola are facing the worst drought since 1981 and an extended hunger season.According to ECHO, the poor harvests have severely affected the population access to food in this region, which is highly dependent on agriculture and has also adversely affected the nutrition situation.1As food reserves are depleting, the situation has deteriorated and will likely worsen during the lean season.Angola is characterized by marked precipitation seasonality and the main issue leading to the current drought is the strongly reduced precipitation during several previous rainy seasons (lasting from November to April). This extremely dry condition occurred also in the most recent rainy season - 2020/21. Both used indicators (fAPAR and SMA) depict well the vegetation and the soil condition at the end of this rainy season (end of March 2021). This pushes households in these provinces into extreme vulnerability, increased food insecurity, and livelihood losses, ECHO said.According to a recent Integrated Phase Classification (IPC) analysis, more than 1.3 million people in the south-western provinces of Cunene, Huila and Namibe are facing severe hunger as the worst drought in 40 years leaves fields barren, pasture lands dry and food reserves depleted.2"Migration of families to other provinces and neighboring Namibia in search of water and grazing for cattle has been registered in the South of the country," said WFP’s Head of Office in Angola, Michele Mussoni.High food prices and a locust infestation that has caused severe damage to crops are compounding the effects of the drought, hampering people’s ability to access nutritious food, WFP said. The drought has also impacted 114 000 children under the age of five who are suffering or likely to suffer from acute malnutrition in the next 12 months, with serious effects on their physical and mental development.
Fawn Fire threatens numerous communities in Northern California --The Fawn Fire, the most recent blaze torching northern California, is now ripping through the Mt. Shasta-Trinity area near Shasta Lake, just north of Redding. It began Wednesday afternoon, allegedly due to arson. Several communities, energy infrastructure and numerous residences are threatened, and evacuations and road and trail closures are in effect. As of Sunday morning, the California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection (CalFire) reports that the Fawn Fire has burned 8,537 acres and is 35 percent contained. The blaze has destroyed 131 structures, damaged 12 structures, and threatens 2,340 structures. Fire response agencies have issued evacuation orders for the entire surrounding area, including all roads east of I-5 north of Old Oregon Trail and north to Shasta Lake, and thousands of people have been evacuated from the area. To date, the National Interagency Fire Center has recorded nearly 46,000 fires nationwide, which have burned more than 5.8 million acres. In California, currently there are 10 large fires burning nearly 2 million acres, none of which are fully contained. A temporary evacuation center was set up in the Shasta College parking lot in Redding, but even that had to be closed because of the college’s evacuation, officials said. A new shelter has been set up at the First Church of the Nazarene in Redding. “Approximately 4,000 Shasta County residents are evacuated at this time, with 30,000 residents affected,” the Shasta County Sheriff’s Office stated in a press release Thursday night. A separate evacuation site was set up for people testing positive for COVID-19. CalFire Shasta-Trinity spokeswoman Cheryl Buliavak said the cause of the fire was still under investigation, but she confirmed that a woman seen wandering around near the quarry where the fire is believed to have started was arrested Wednesday night on “fire-related charges.” The suspect, 30-year-old Alexandra Souverneva, is also being investigated for starting other fires in Shasta County and throughout the state, said Shasta County District Attorney Stephanie Bridgett. Bridgett also filed 31 criminal charges against Pacific Gas & Electric (PG&E) on Friday for its wanton and intentional actions during the Zogg Fire in 2020, which killed four people and incinerated at least 200 buildings, according to a report from the Los AngelesTimes . “We have sufficient evidence to prove beyond a reasonable doubt that the Pacific Gas & Electric Company is criminally liable for their reckless ignition of the Zogg fire and the deaths and destruction that it caused,” Bridgett told the Times. Among the charges are 11 felonies and 20 misdemeanors, including arson and manslaughter. In July, Bridgett said the utility was criminally liable for its role in igniting the fire and that she was investigating the actions to determine the nature of the charges. The charges filed on Friday were necessary because of PG&E’s “statutory and regulatory duties to mitigate fire risks by removing hazardous trees from around their electrical lines,” Bridgett said. “In this case, they failed to perform their legal duties.”
Hurricane Ida devastation lingers in Louisiana 1 month later (AP) — A month after Hurricane Ida roared ashore with 150-mph (241-kph) winds, communities all along the state’s southeastern coast — Ironton, Grand Isle, Houma, Lafitte and Barataria — are still suffering from the devastating effects of the Category 4 storm. Many, like Trufant Salvant, are bunking with relatives until they can get back into their homes. Others are staying in hotels or have left the state, she said. Some residents have returned to pick up what few belongings may have survived the flood, but she says they aren’t finding much to salvage — the storm surge generated by Ida rose as high as some homes’ rooftops. “The day that they allowed folks to come back in here, it was like a funeral,” she said. “Everybody was just heartbroken, because we had seen devastation before ... but we had never seen anything like this.” Churches and charity organizations are working to help, but the destruction is so far-reaching, there don’t seem to be enough donations to go around, said Michael Williamson, head of the United Way of Southeast Louisiana, which covers seven parishes hit by Ida. The storage room in the United Way’s New Orleans headquarters — typically filled with donated food, water, tarps and cleaning supplies for residents in storm-battered communities — is nearly bare. Donations have been slow to trickle in compared to previous storms, even smaller ones, and there’s not enough to meet the demand, Williamson said. When it comes to tarps and cleaning supplies — bleach, buckets, mops and rakes — “we can’t get enough of them,” he said. The United Way is also managing unique cases including that of firefighter Warren Myers, whose 5-year-old special needs daughter, Ameah, requires a specific formula administered through a feeding tube, medicine to control seizures, and diapers, all of which are expensive and have been hard to get since Ida. Store shelves haven’t been as well stocked, and deliveries haven’t arrived as regularly as usual, Ameah is unable to stand or walk on her own, so the couple carry her everywhere either in their arms or on their backs with a harness-style carrier. . In Ironton, Trufant Salvant’s house is one of only about eight in her neighborhood not swamped by Ida’s floodwaters. . “This one hit us worse than Katrina,” she said. Williamson says the recovery from Ida will be a long one — yearslong for some. Families that have been able to return are in various stages of cleanup as they wait for insurance adjusters to assess damage and federal assistance funds to come through.
Mindulle rapidly strengthens into third super typhoon of the 2021 Pacific typhoon season - Tropical Storm "Mindulle" formed at 09:00 UTC on September 23, 2021, as the 15th named storm of the 2021 Pacific typhoon season. The cyclone rapidly intensified into a Category 5 super typhoon by 00:00 UTC on September 26, making it the third super typhoon of the season.At 09:00 UTC on September 26, the center of Super Typhoon "Mindulle" was located about 819 km (509 miles) southwest of Iwo To, Japan. Its maximum 10-minute sustained winds were 195 km/h (120 mph), with gusts up to 280 km/h (175 mph), while maximum 1-minute sustained winds were 270 km/h (165 mph).The storm had a minimum central pressure of 920 hPa and was almost stationary.Mindulle is forecast to drift slowly northward over the next 24 to 36 hours, caught in the clutches of two competing steering influences, according to the JTWC.1The system is expected to accelerate NE after 09:00 UTC on September 29 and begun extra-tropical transition by 09:00 UTC on October 4.
Eight-story building collapses after heavy rain hits Shimla, India - An eight-story building in Shimla, Himachal Pradesh, India collapsed on Thursday, September 30, 2021, after heavy rain and landslides hit the region.According to the Himachal Pradesh State Disaster Management Authority Director Sudesh Kumar Mokhta, the building at Shimla’s Ghoda Chowki near Hali Palace crumbled on Thursday because of a landslide triggered by recent rains. As it was falling, the building struck two two-story structures, destroying them, Mokhta said, adding that two adjoining buildings, including a hotel, are in danger. There are no reports of injuries or casualties.
Powerful blizzard hits Northern Iceland - A deep cyclone with estimated pressure below 970 hPa is bringing intense snowstorms and blizzard conditions to northwest Iceland on September 28, 2021. Bad weather is expected to continue through Wednesday, September 29. Blizzard conditions are expected in the north- and west parts of the country today, with a severe blizzard in the Westfjods and Strandir and severe to whole gales at Breidafjordur and on southern Snæfellsnes, according to the Icelandic Met Office (IMO).1 The office issued an Orange weather alert for Faxafloi - Southwest Iceland, Breidafjordur - Westnorthwest Iceland, Westfjords, and Northwest Iceland. Northwest winds up to 90 km/h (56 mph) and considerable or heavy snow with blowing snow and poor visibility are expected in the NW. People are advised to secure their neighborhood and traveling is not advised while the weather warning is in effect. Higher sea levels are anticipated due to storm surge. Temperatures will range from 0 to 8 °C (32 - 46 °F), with the warmest in the southeast. The national police commissioner has declared a civil protection uncertainty phase in Northeast Iceland, West Iceland, and the West Fjords.2 Rescue workers were already called out in North Iceland and West Fjords on September 27 after numerous cars ended stuck in the snow. Property damage was reported due to strong winds and at least one dock came loose. "The central pressure should push even below 970 hPa by noon Tuesday, while the low will keep moving northwest along northern Iceland until the afternoon hours tomorrow," Marko Korosec of Severe Weather Europe noted.3 "This will increase the wind field around the low, becoming particularly significant across northern and northwestern Iceland during the second half of the day into Tuesday night. "Quite a lot of moisture coming up north with the rapidly intensifying surface low will be in place as well, combining with the much colder weather spreading south towards the low. This will create heavy to locally very heavy (orographic) snowfall across northern Iceland." "As the wind field will also be strong, the combination of both will result in dangerous snow blizzard conditions in these parts of Iceland," Korosec said. "Whiteout conditions and major snow drifts are quite likely to be generated as well. Travels will be disrupted and could cause significant delays and impassable roads. "
Scientific team uncovers additional threat to Antarctica's floating ice shelves - Glaciologists at the University of California, Irvine and NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory have examined the dynamics underlying the calving of the Delaware-sized iceberg A68 from Antarctica's Larsen C ice shelf in July 2017, finding the likely cause to be a thinning of ice melange, a slushy concoction of windblown snow, iceberg debris and frozen seawater that normally works to heal rifts. In a paper published today in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, the researchers report that their modeling studies showed melange thinning to be a major driver of ice shelf collapse. The circulation of ocean water beneath ice shelves and radiative warming from above, they say, gradually deteriorate ice melange over the course of decades. As ice shelves are thought to buttress and prevent land-borne glaciers from more rapidly flowing into the ocean, this new knowledge about rift dynamics illuminates a previously underappreciated link between climate change and ice shelf stability. "The thinning of the ice melange that glues together large segments of floating ice shelves is another way climate change can cause rapid retreat of Antarctica's ice shelves," said co-author Eric Rignot, UCI professor of Earth system science. "With this in mind, we may need to rethink our estimates about the timing and extent of sea level rise from polar ice loss—i.e., it could come sooner and with a bigger bang than expected." "A lot of people thought intuitively, "If you thin the ice shelf, you're going to make it much more fragile, and it's going to break,'" said lead author Eric Larour, NASA JPL research scientist and group supervisor. Instead, the model showed that a thinning ice shelf without any changes to the melange worked to heal the rifts, with average annual widening rates dropping from 79 to 22 meters (259 to 72 feet). Thinning both the ice shelf and the melange also slowed rift widening but to a lesser extent. But when modeling only melange thinning, the scientists found a widening of rifts from an average annual rate of 76 to 112 meters (249 to 367 feet).
Volcanic ash cloud closes La Palma airport; new vent emerges - The airport on the Spanish island of La Palma shut down Saturday because of an ash cloud spewing out of a volcano that has been erupting for a week, and scientists said another volcanic vent opened up, exposing islanders to possible new dangers. The intensity of the eruption that began Sept. 19 has increased in recent days, prompting the evacuation of three additional villages on the island, part of Spain's Canary Islands archipelago in the Atlantic Ocean off northwest Africa. Almost 7,000 people have been forced to abandon their homes. The recent volcanic eruption is the first since 1971 on La Palma, which has a population of 85,000. La Palma Airport operator Aena said the airport was "inoperative" due to the accumulation of ash. Other airports in the Canary Islands were still operating Saturday but some airlines were suspending flights, Aena said. Emergency crews pulled back from the volcano Friday as explosions sent molten rock and ash over a wide area. The Canary Islands Volcanology Institute said another vent opened early Saturday. Rivers of lava have been sliding down the mountainside toward the southwestern coast of the island, destroying everything in their path, including hundreds of homes. The speed of the flow has slowed down considerably, however, and the lava is now barely moving forward, with about 2 kilometers left to reach the sea, said Miguel Ángel Morcuende, head of the Canary Island Volcanic Emergency Plan.
Unique close-up views of eruption at La Palma, Canary Islands (videos) Drone videos acquired by IGN on September 25, 2021, show unique close-up views of erupting vents at Cumbre Vieja volcano.After the intensification of activity observed over the past couple of days, volcanic tremor and strombolian explosive activity have almost disappeared on September 27.Ash emissions have also decreased today, rising up to 1.5 km (5 000 feet) a.s.l., as of 11:00 UTC. This, however, does not mean the eruption is over.
Canary Island Residents Told To "Stay Inside" After Toxic Cloud Emitted As Lava Reaches Sea -Nine days after the volcanic eruption on the Spanish island of La Palma, officials have warned residents to hunker down inside their homes due to toxic gases emitted from the lava. Lava over 1,800 degrees Fahrenheit from the Cumbre Vieja volcano is pouring into the Atlantic and creating a dangerous chemical reaction emitting steam, toxic gas (including hydrochloric acid), and tiny shards of volcanic glass into the atmosphere. Authorities warned residents within a two-mile range of where the lava meets the ocean to stay indoors and duct tape windows and doors to ensure that toxic gases don't come inside. Sky's Becky Cotterill said the wind was blowing the toxic gases into the ocean on Wednesday, but fears conditions could quickly change. "The lava has been slow-moving and changing course, but at 11pm last night it did finally drop off a cliff about a hundred feet high into the sea, creating what essentially looked like a lava waterfall."Scientists were really concerned about that because when lava hits the water it creates a thermal shock."That shock releases toxic gases that contain hydrochloric acid and it's very dangerous to breathe in and also dangerous if it gets in your eyes or on your skin."Residents in the surrounding areas have been told to stay inside," Cotterill said. More than 6,000 people have had to evacuate, and at least 400 homes have been destroyed since the Sept. 19 eruption. The volcano continues to emit large columns of smoke that have produced ashfall across the island and acid rain in southern parts of Europe.
New eruption at Kilauea volcano, Aviation Color Code raised to Red, Hawaii (webcam video) A new eruption began at Kilauea volcano's Halema‘uma‘u crater at approximately 01:20 UTC on September 30, 2021 (15:20 HST, September 29). As a result, the USGS Hawaiian Volcano Observatory (HVO) raised the Volcano Alert Level for ground-based hazards from ADVISORY to WARNING and the Aviation Color Code from YELLOW to RED. A swarm of earthquakes began beneath the south part of Kilauea caldera, Hawaii on August 24, 2021, with a particularly strong sequence that occurred at about 11:30 UTC.1Increased earthquake activity and changes in the patterns of ground deformation at Kilauea's summit began again at approximately 22:00 UTC on September 29, indicating movement of magma in the subsurface.At approximately 01:20 UTC on September 30, HVO detected a glow in Kīlauea summit webcam images indicating that an eruption has commenced within Halemaʻumaʻu crater.2 Webcam imagery shows fissures at the base of Halemaʻumaʻu crater generating lava flows on the surface of the lava lake that was active until May 2021.The activity is confined to Halemaʻumaʻu and the hazards will be reassessed as the eruption progresses.The opening phases of eruptions are dynamic and uncertain, HVO said, adding that it continues to monitor the volcano closely and will report any significant changes.
Solar Superstorms: Planning for an Internet Apocalypse – pdf - What will happen if there is a global Internet collapse? A disruption lasting even a few minutes can lead to huge losses for service providers and damages in cyber-physical systems. The economic impact of an Internet disruption for a day in the US is estimated to be over $7 billion [1]. What if the network remains non-functional for days or even months? This is the worst-case scenario, which, fortunately, we have never encountered in recent history. One of the greatest dangers facing the Internet with the potential for global impact is a powerful solar superstorm. Although humans are protected from these storms by the earth’s magnetic !eld and atmosphere, they can cause signi!cant damage to man-made infrastructure. The scienti!c community is generally aware of this threat with modeling e"orts and precautionary measures being taken, particularly in the context of power grids [41, 43]. However, the networking community has largely overlooked this risk during the design of the network topology and geo-distributed systems such as DNS and data centers. A Coronal Mass Ejection (CME), popularly known as solar storm, is a directional ejection of a large mass of highly magnetized particles from the sun. When the earth is in the direct path of a CME, these magnetized and charged solar particles will interact with the earth’s magnetic !eld and produce several e"ects. In addition to spectacular auroral displays, they produce Geomagnetically Induced Currents (GIC) on the earth’s surface through electromagnetic induction. Based on the strength of the CME, in extreme cases, GIC has the potential to enter and damage long-distance cables that constitute the backbone of the Internet. The largest solar events on record occurred in 1859 and 1921, long before the advent of modern technology. They triggered extensive power outages and caused signi!cant damage to the communication network of the day, the telegraph network. The probability of occurrence of extreme space weather events that directly impact the earth is estimated to be 1.6% to 12% per decade [42, 65]. More importantly, the sun was in a period of low activity in the past three decades [61] from which it is slowly emerging. Since this low phase of solar activity coincided with the rapid growth of technology on the earth, we have a limited understanding of whether the current infrastructure is resilient against powerful CMEs. In this paper, we analyze the threat posed by solar superstorms to the Internet infrastructure and the steps to be taken to mitigate its e"ects. First, we ask a key question: is the threat signi!cant, and should we factor this in Internet topology design and infrastructure deployment (§ 2)? Second, we study the impact of solar storms on key building blocks of the Internet infrastructure — long-haul land and submarine cables (§ 3). Third, using real-world datasets and a wide range of failure models, we quantify the impact of solar superstorms on the Internet infrastructure (§ 4). Finally, we lay out steps to manage the perils associated with solar superstorms (§ 5).
The jet stream has started an unprecedented shift north, which could wreak havoc on weather in the US and Europe - The polar jet stream circles the northern hemisphere, swirling up to nine miles above our heads like a curvy, ethereal crown on the planet.This band of strong wind separates cold air from the Arctic from warmer air to the south, and it's responsible for transporting weather from west to east across the US, over the Atlantic, and into Europe. It controls how wet and warm these regions are.But according to a recent study, the jet stream is shifting north as global temperatures rise. That's because the delicate balance of warm and cold air that keeps the stream in place is getting disturbed. If greenhouse-gas emissions continue unabated, the study found, the jet stream will break out of its normal range by 2060."The 'onset' of the jet stream's northward migration may have already begun," Matthew Osman, a researcher at the University of Arizona's Climate Systems Center who co-authored the study, told Insider.That would wreak havoc on weather in the northern hemisphere, bringing more extreme events like droughts and heat waves to southern Europe and the eastern US. More rain and flooding are expected in northern parts of Europe and Scandinavia, Osman said.The North Atlantic jet stream exists and is held in place thanks to the clash between warm air zooming north from the tropics and cold air in the Arctic. Once these air masses meet, they move east at 110 miles per hour, driven by the Earth's rotation. But rising air temperatures mess with that hustle and flow. The Arctic is warming twice as fast, on average, as the rest of the planet. So that warm air travels farther north before it finds cold air, which leads the jet stream's position to migrate toward higher latitudes. Osman's study suggests that the jet stream's migration will likely cause the US East Coast to warm more quickly than it already is. And both North America and Europe will experience more droughts and heat waves."Europe, on the downstream end of the North Atlantic jet, will feel these effects most acutely," Osman said.In particular, semi-arid regions of southern Europe could become more arid. Parts of northern Europe that already have a wetter, milder climates, like Scandinavia, could become even wetter. That additional rainfall would prompt more floods like the ones that plagued Europe this summer.
Study: Climate change is disproportionately affecting children --International research led by Prof. Wim Thiery of the VUB research group BCLIMATE shows that children are to face disproportional increases in lifetime extreme event exposure—especially in low-income countries. Under current climate policy, newborns across the globe will on average face seven times more scorching heatwaves during their lives than their grandparents. In addition, they will on average live through 2.6 times more droughts, 2.8 times as many river floods, almost three times as many crop failures, and twice the number of wildfires as people born 60 years ago. "Our results highlight a severe threat to the safety of young generations and call for drastic emission reductions to safeguard their future," says Thiery, climate scientist at VUB and lead author of the study. The Fridays for Future movement led by the world's youth has drastically increased awareness around the importance of climate change mitigation for future generations. Next to school strikes and protest marches, young people are now also suing their governments, for instance for violating their fundamental rights under the United Nations Committee on the Rights of the Child. Scientifically, aspects of climate change like droughts or heatwaves are often studied by comparing different time windows or discrete levels of warming. However, this ruling paradigm in climate and impact research has so far not quantified how younger generations will experience a different climate change burden. Current research therefore insufficiently grasps how the climate change burden differs across generations and countries.To this end, the team generated an unprecedented collection of climate change impact simulations and combined these with future global temperature trajectories and demographic information on life expectancy, population density, and cohort size. The results show that for a 3 degrees Celsius global warming pathway, a six-year-old in 2020 will experience twice as many wildfires and tropical cyclones, three times more river floods, four times more crop failures, five times more droughts, and 36 times more heatwaves relative to a reference person living under pre-industrial climate conditions. Under a 3.5 degrees Celsius warming scenario, children born in 2020 will even experience 44 times more heatwaves.
Kids will experience about three times as many climate-related disasters as their grandparents: study - Experts have long warned climate change will disproportionately affect poor and disadvantaged demographics, but it will also have an outsize impact on younger generations, according to a study published in the journal Science. Researchers estimate that under current international Paris climate agreement commitments, people born in 2020 will face twice the risk of wildfires as those born in 1960 as well as 2.8 times the crop failures, 2.6 times the droughts, 2.8 times the river flooding and just under seven times the heat waves. “Our results highlight a severe threat to the safety of young generations and call for drastic emission reductions to safeguard their future,” co-author Wim Thiery, a research professor at Belgium’s Vrije Universiteit Brussel, said in a statement. Researchers also analyzed a scenario in which warming is kept to 1.5 degrees Celsius, the most optimistic scenario projected by the International Panel on Climate Change. In this case, they wrote, people born in 2020 would see their lifetime exposure to heat waves reduced by 45 percent and their exposure to droughts reduced by 39 percent. River flooding, meanwhile, would see a 38 percent risk reduction, along with 28 percent for crop failures and 10 percent for wildfires. However, Thiery noted, even at or above 1.5 degrees Celsius of warming, people born after 1980 would still see a level of exposure to those phenomena that is unheard of in preindustrial history. “This basically means that people younger than 40 today will live an unprecedented life even under the most stringent climate change mitigation scenarios,” he said. These impacts will disproportionately fall on children in developing countries. Some 172 million children born in the last five years in sub-Saharan Africa will face a sixfold increase in lifetime exposure to extreme weather phenomena, including a fiftyfold increase in heat waves. Comparatively, about 53 million children born in Europe and Asia during the same period will face a fourfold increase in exposure to extreme phenomena. In addition to keeping warming to no more than 1.5 degrees Celsius, the researchers called on international governments to meet their commitment of $100 billion a year in climate financing for adaptation and mitigation. It further called for an increased recognition of children as “equal stakeholders” in the climate crisis and for a scaling-up of social safety nets to address the threats.
API targets climate legislation with Facebook ad blitz - Two lobbying groups for the oil and gas industry have bombarded Facebook with hundreds of ads opposing climate legislation in Congress that have been viewed 23 million times. The American Petroleum Institute and the American Gas Association have spent hundreds of thousands of dollars on the ads to attack climate provisions in the $3.5 trillion reconciliation package proposed by Democrats, according to a report released today by InfluenceMap, a London-based nonprofit that tracks climate lobbying. Since Aug. 8, API spent $423,000 on ads that have been viewed 21 million times, the analysis found. The American Gas Association has spent $18,000 since Aug. 11 on similar ads that were viewed 2.2 million times. “These industry groups are pulling out all the stops — from advertising to public messaging — to oppose the reconciliation bill,” said Kendra Haven, InfluenceMap’s U.S. program manager. “This level of strategic activity, particularly through targeted advertising campaigns, exposes the value of their positive-sounding, top-line statements on climate.” API set a record for itself on Aug. 8 by spending $10,800 on Facebook ads in a single day. Its previous record of $10,300 was set in July 2020 just after Joe Biden announced his climate platform on the campaign trail. An API spokesperson said the ad spending was part of its “energy literacy advocacy.” “API is working with policymakers on both sides of the aisle to address the climate challenge through industry action and effective government policies and our energy literacy advocacy is a fraction of the robust investments our companies make towards breakthrough innovation, research and best practices to further reduce emissions and tackle the climate challenge,” API Senior Vice President of Communications Megan Bloomgren said in a statement. After Biden announced a $2 trillion climate plan last year, API, Exxon Mobil Corp. and other fossil fuel companies and trade groups launched a $10 million ad blitz on Facebook. The ads were seen by tens of millions of users in election swing states. They promoted the message that natural gas was an important part of any climate policy. In the latest ad campaign, API’s “Energy Citizen” page published 286 ads that encouraged users to press their congressional representatives to reject the reconciliation bill or to thank them for rejecting the “energy tax,” InfluenceMap found. API encouraged Facebook users to call the office of Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) to thank him for opposing climate provisions. The Energy Citizen ads attracted 6 million views, InfluenceMap found.
Meet the Senate enforcer who could sink Biden's climate plan - The gatekeeper for the most consequential climate bill in U.S. history works behind a nondescript door in the Capitol. She’s not recognized by tourists or followed by journalists. She can ascend the marble steps near her office without turning heads. But she has the power to short-circuit the most ambitious climate legislation ever considered by Congress. Her name is Elizabeth MacDonough. The Senate parliamentarian is the chamber’s referee, tasked with interpreting its arcane rules and handing down decisions that allow, or prohibit, provisions being included in legislative text. Her influence can sometimes reverberate across the American landscape. Now might be one of those times. Any day, MacDonough is expected to announce whether the Clean Electricity Performance Program meets the parameters of reconciliation, a process that can be used just once a year to help Congress pass supplemental pieces of the budget. Democrats are pinning their climate aspirations on a $3.5 trillion reconciliation measure because it can be passed with 51 votes instead of 60. Now those Democratic tactics are elevating the role of a mostly unknown parliamentarian who has at times been critical of using reconciliation as a vehicle for advancing society-shaking policies, like the clean energy program. “I represent the Senate with its traditions of unfettered debate, protection of minority rights and equal power among the states,” said MacDonough, 55, in a 2018 commencement address to Vermont Law School, her alma mater. “That’s always there, that Senate is my charge.” MacDonough, the first woman to hold her post, was appointed in 2012 by then-Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.). Her tenure continued under Sens. Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) and Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.), the past and present majority leaders. The Clean Electricity Performance Program, or CEPP, is the pillar of President Biden’s climate plan for the power sector, for which he aims to cut emissions 80 percent by 2030 and 100 percent five years later. It would offer payments to utilities that meet federal clean energy goals and issue fines to those that don’t. If it passes, most Americans would be using electricity derived from the sun, wind and other carbon-free sources within a decade.
Dem divisions, Manchin demands highlight climate struggles - Democratic infighting on Capitol Hill this week underscores how difficult it will be to get the biggest climate bill in U.S. history across the finish line.Climate policy has emerged as one of the toughest challenges in striking a deal on Democrats’ reconciliation package, with a chasm between Energy and Natural Resources Chair Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) and much of the rest of the party.That divide crystallized yesterday after POLITICO reported a July 28 memo signed by Manchin and Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) specifying a $1.5 trillion top line for reconciliation — much lower than House Democrats’ $3.5 trillion package — and the inclusion of natural gas, coal and carbon capture in clean energy tax policies (Greenwire, Sept. 30).Manchin’s stance is threatening to derail the proposed Clean Electricity Performance Program (CEPP) that would likely be central to meeting President Biden’s emissions goals, frustrating Democrats who see reconciliation as one of the last chances to address climate change before it’s too late. “It’s not anything that you can really negotiate away,” Select Committee on the Climate Crisis Chair Kathy Castor (D-Fla.) said in an interview yesterday. “We either follow the science, or we condemn ourselves to higher costs and more catastrophes.” The leaked document, which Manchin confirmed to reporters yesterday, inserted another twist into the ongoing fight in the House over the bipartisan infrastructure bill. It was initially scheduled for a vote yesterday, but progressives planned to sink it without a deal with Manchin and fellow moderate Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (D-Ariz.) on reconciliation. The vote was delayed after talks that dragged into yesterday evening. The document includes several climate-related stipulations, namely that Manchin’s committee be charged with writing any clean energy standard and that if clean energy tax breaks are extended, fossil fuel tax benefits should be preserved. Climate spending, it says, should be “fuel neutral,” and carbon capture and storage should allow natural gas and coal to “feasibly qualify” for energy tax policies. Manchin is also doubling down on his concerns with the CEPP, which he laid out in detail this week during an Energy and Natural Resources hearing (Greenwire, Sept. 28).But House Democrats scoffed at the idea that coal and natural gas would get a place in a climate policy, even if some acknowledged a potential role for carbon capture. “To those of us in the real world, coal and natural gas are not clean. They’re just not,” Rep. Jared Huffman (D-Calif.) told reporters. “So let’s stop pretending, and let’s get real.”
Manchin: Natural gas 'has to be' part of clean energy program -- Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) on Thursday said natural gas must be included in a clean energy program his fellow Democrats are pushing.“It has to be,” the key swing vote senator told reporters. “I am all for all of the above. I am all for clean energy, but I am also for producing the amount of energy that we need to make sure that we have reliability.”The remark is sure to anger climate advocates, who have opposed the use of natural gas in a key program known as the Clean Electricity Performance Program (CEPP). A version of the CEPP drafted by the House would pay power providers to shift towards clean energy sources and penalize companies that don’t move quickly enough. The House’s version would exclude natural gas that doesn’t use technology to capture its emissions.When it’s burned, natural gas emits less planet-warming carbon into the atmosphere than other fossil fuels like coal, but its emissions are still a significant contributor to climate change. Manchin on Thursday also reiterated past opposition to paying utilities to make the switch, and instead floated low-interest loans. “I am just not for giving public companies who have shareholders, public dollars, free, when I know they’re going to be very profitable at the end whatever we do,” he said. “We might front you the money with low-interest loans, but shouldn’t we get it back when the profits start flowing so we don’t have to incur more debt,” he added. Manchin is not just a key Senate swing vote. He’s also the chairman of the Senate’s Energy and Natural Resources Committee that’s expected to craft the upper chamber’s version of the program.
Sen. Joe Manchin, who is holding up crucial climate change initiatives in Biden's reconciliation bill, collects Half a Million a Year From Coal Stocks Dividends: Report - Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin of West Virginia, who has in his own words "never been in a liberal in any way shape or form," is currently holding up the $3.5 trillion reconciliation bill that central to President Joe Biden's "Build Back Better" domestic agenda. But he's also likely to hold back any further action to combat the climate crisis, which could impact his million-dollar investments in the coal and energy industries. Manchin told CNN in July that he was disturbed by aspects of the $3.5 trillion reconciliation bill, including provisions that would target the fossil fuel industry. "I'm finding out there's a lot of language in places they're eliminating fossils, which is very, very disturbing, because if you're sticking your head in the sand, and saying that fossil (fuel) has to be eliminated in America, and they want to get rid of it, and thinking that's going to clean up the global climate, it won't clean it up all," Manchin said. "If anything, it would be worse." As The Guardian reported in partnership with the Center for Media and Democracy in July, Manchin himself founded a private coal brokerage in 1998 called "Enersystems." Though currently run by his son, Manchin still owns as much as a $5 million stake in the company, raking in $500,000 of income from it in 2020 alone. As of late 2019, Manchin was by far the most invested of any senator in "dirty energy." Manchin serves as chair of the Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee, which oversees the coal industry as well as "global climate change." As Sludge reported in early July, Manchin told the 2021 annual conference of the Edison Electric Institute in June that "coal-fired plants are being unfairly targeted by environmentalists."
BlackRock's Larry Fink says big companies shouldn't be the only 'climate police' in the world - Big companies and banks shouldn't be the only "climate police" in the world, says BlackRock Chief Executive Larry Fink, who called on governments and society to play their part in climate change. "If governments are only asking public companies to move forward, and which are mostly large companies, then we're going to be asking the large companies to be the climate police. And I don't think that's our role," he said, speaking virtually at the Ecosperity climate conference in Singapore. If the world is going to move to net-zero emissions, then "we can't just ask these public companies to move forward," said Fink. "There lies the fundamental problem and that's what I'm really worried about. I don't want to be the environmental police," he said. "I don't want BlackRock — because we're a large investor — to be telling every company who's not moving forward [that] we're going to divest of all your shares. That's not a good outcome." Net-zero emissions, also known as carbon neutrality, is achieved when an entity removes as much carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases from the atmosphere as it releases into it. The European Union this year introduced major new rules that require asset managers, pension funds and insurers to disclose how they consider environment, social and governance (ESG) issues in their investment decisions. In the U.S., the Securities and Exchange Commission is moving closer to requiring carbon disclosures from companies as investor concerns about the material impact of climate change on financial performance continue to escalate. Environmental activists are 'not being thoughtful' Fink said that while environmentalists have "played a big role" in lobbying for change from asset managers, he doesn't "necessarily agree with what they're talking about." "I believe they're not being thoughtful in terms of the realities of how politicians can move forward or for that matter a corporation," he said. VIDEO08:37 COP26: Can a climate change conference save the planet? Fink also pointed out that BlackRock acts on behalf of the interests of their clients. The environmentalists can "protest all they want," but "a higher law than their views" is acting on behalf of clients. "It is not our money. If a client wants us to invest in an XYZ index, and that XYZ index has, you know, 8% allocation to dirty hydrocarbons — other than the whole — we have to be a fiduciary and invest in it." "So my frustration with some of the environmentalists, related to finance, they have to understand the role of finance and the role of asset owners versus asset advisors," Fink said.
World Leaders Pledge $400 Billion to Boost Clean Energy and Renewables - A group of governments and the private sector on Friday collectively promised more than $400 billion (just over €340 billion) at a high-level summit that called for more urgent action to curb catastrophic climate change. The commitments, made on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly in New York, also envisage reliable access to electricity for hundreds of millions of people. The pledges include projects to expand access to electricity in developing countries and improve energy efficiency.More than 35 countries — from small developing island states to major emerging and developed economies — have made significant new energy commitments in the form of energy pacts, the UN said.Several large companies also made pledges, including TotalEnergies, Schneider Electric and Google.Among the promises is a German commitment to increase its own proportion of renewable energy in total electricity consumption to 65% by 2030.Berlin has pledged to support partner countries in expanding innovative technologies such as green hydrogen and "power to x," an innovation to use surplus electric power.The government has also committed to providing €7 billion toward speeding up the market rollout of hydrogen technology in Germany. The UN says some 760 million people around the world currently lack access to electricity.Speaking at the summit, UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said the world should aim to cut that number in half by 2025."Access to clean, renewable energy is, quite simply, the difference between life and death," Guterres said. Among the ways of achieving this goal are alternatives to national power grids. These include "swarm grids" — a system of power cubes that appear like large car batteries and which are charged by solar array. The UN chief outlined four priorities for a future of sustainable energy:
- Cutting in half the number of people without access to electricity by 2025.
- Rapidly shifting to clean energy sources.
- Achieve universal energy access by 2030.
- Ensuring that efforts to cut carbon dioxide do not mean leaving some without access to power.
"We cannot wait another 40 years," Guterres said. "The age of renewable, affordable energy access for all must start today."
Greta Thunberg: Last 30 years of climate action amount to 'blah, blah, blah' - Climate activist Greta Thunberg derided world leaders during remarks in Milan, saying the last 30 years of climate action amount to “blah, blah, blah.”"When I say climate change, what do you think of? I think jobs. Green jobs. Green jobs," Thunberg said at the Youth4Climate summit, referencing the words of President Biden."We must find a smooth transition towards a low carbon economy. There is no Planet B," she said, referencing French President Emmanuel Macron. "There is no Planet Blah. Blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah.""This is not about some expensive, politically correct dream at the bunny hugging or blah, blah, blah,” Thunberg said of British Prime Minister Boris Johnson's rhetoric."Build back better, blah, blah, blah. Green economy, blah, blah, blah," she added."Net zero, blah, blah, blah. Climate neutral, blah, blah, blah,” Thunberg said. “This is all we hear from our so-called leaders — words, words that sound great but so far has led to no action or hopes and dreams. Empty words and promises."The youth who attend the summit offer proposals for world leaders to consider addressing or implementing to combat climate change. Global leaders will meet in Milan later this to discuss climate change for the final time before November’s United Nations Climate Change Conference in Glasgow.
Pennsylvania Climate Action Plan 2021 addresses biogas, LCFS - The implementation of a low carbon fuel standard (LCFS) and expanded production and use of biogas are among the strategies to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions discussed in the Pennsylvania Climate Action Plan 2021.Pennsylvania Gov. Tom Wolf on Sept. 22 released the Pennsylvania Climate Action Plan 2021, which details a variety of actions that can help the state meet its 2025 and 2050 GHG reduction goals. The state in 2019 set the goal to achieve a 26 percent reduction in GHG emission by 2025 and an 80 percent reduction by 2050, when compared to a 2005 baseline.The production and use of biogas features prominently in the 2021 action plan, which notes the state can produce biogas and renewable natural gas (RNG) from a variety of sources, including animal manure, food waste, landfill gas, water resources recovery facilities, agricultural residue, energy crops, forest residue and municipal solid waste.The action plan also discusses the positive economic impacts of increased production and use of RNG. The average annual gross state product (GSP) and disposable personal income (DPI) impacts are expected to be $173.74 million and $163.11 million, respectively, according to the action plan. The RNG industry is also expected to foster employment for the construction of pipeline interconnections, resulting in the annual employment of 29,880 jobs.Regarding the potential for an LCFS, the action plan indicates that such a program could expand on the ethanol and biodiesel requirements already in place in Pennsylvania and include zero-emissions vehicles.The action plan estimates that an LCFS could achieve emissions reductions of 683,365 metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent (MTCO2e) in 2025, and 1.58 million MTCO2e by 2040. The action plan projects the overall macroeconomic impacts of an LCFS would be negative, with the average annual GSP and DPI impacts expected to be -$483.60 million and -$135.33 million, respectively. The plan also forecasts that an LCFS would result in an average annual employment impact of -2,514 jobs. Those negative impacts, however, are not true of all fuels and technologies completing under an LCFS program. Increased production and use of renewable fuels and biofuels would be expected to be associated with lower energy costs and increased employment opportunities, if produced locally, according to the action plan. A full copy of the Pennsylvania Climate Action Plan 2021 can be downloaded from the Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection website.
Justices to Weigh Pipeline, Climate Petitions in Upcoming Term - The Supreme Court will kick off a new term next week with an environmental docket that could wade into big-ticket climate, water, and pipeline issues. The justices gathered Sept. 27 for their long conference to debate what issues to take on in the coming months. The environmental case list is light, but court watchers are paying close attention to a few major issues, including petitions over power plant emission rules. States and coal companies asked the justices this year to weigh in on a decision from a U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit panel to scrap the Trump administration’s lax Affordable Clean Energy rule for power plants, something University of Maryland environmental law professor Robert Percival says would be akin to “breathtaking judicial activism” if the Court chooses to pick it up. “They may be tempted to, because the court conservatives have really wanted to slap EPA down after the Supreme Court five and a half years ago stayed the Clean Power Plan,” he told Bloomberg Law. The court will also consider a petition by Dakota Access pipeline operators who dispute the D.C. Circuit’s finding that the project needs further federal environmental review. Davina Pujari, co-chair of the environment and natural resources group at Hanson Bridgett LLP, will have an eye on how agency deference potentially plays out in that case. “Folks have been watching Supreme Court cases over the last few years, and have been waiting for the case where Chevron deference is reexamined by the court, by this particular court,” she said. Here are the environmental and energy cases to watch this term:
Canada's Questerre studying Quebec carbon storage - Canadian energy company Questerre Energy, which controls substantial Utica shale gas assets in Quebec, said September 23 it had filed an application with the provincial government to test a reservoir for carbon storage potential. The operation will consist primarily of an injectivity test to gather data on both the safe rate of injection and the storage potential of the reservoir, located in the Cambrian Potsdam sandstone formation at a depth of about 1,000 m. Questerre holds exclusive rights to explore for storage reservoirs across 1mn acres of Quebec, and is already planning seismic programmes to identify other potential reservoirs. “This will be the first test of its kind in Quebec and will gather essential technical data,” Questerre CEO Michael Binnion said. “We are well positioned to look for carbon storage reservoirs with a comprehensive geological and geophysical database in the province, much of it exclusive.” He said the company would work with academic and other groups also interested in Quebec’s carbon storage potential. Questerre has estimated the ultimate resource potential of its Utica shale assets in Quebec’s St Lawrence Lowlands at about 5.8 trillion ft3, but has been blocked on several past attempts to develop that resource. It now bills itself as an energy technology and innovation company, leveraging its knowledge of low-permeability reservoirs to acquire significant high-quality resources. “We believe we can successfully transition our energy portfolio,” it said. “With new clean technologies and innovation to responsibly produce and use energy, we can sustain both human progress and our natural environment.”
Nebraska is likely headed for another pipeline controversy — this time over carbon dioxide — While the controversy over the Keystone XL pipeline has finally ended, another pipeline punching match is looming on the horizon in Nebraska.Two environmental groups say they will fight proposals to build two high-pressure pipelines to capture carbon dioxide generated by Nebraska ethanol plants and transport it in liquid form for permanent storage deep underground in North Dakota and Illinois.At least one of those projects, by Summit Carbon Solutions, has already begun contacting landowners in northeast Nebraska.That Alden, Iowa-based company is planning to build 314 miles of pipeline to six ethanol plants as part of a $4.5 billion carbon-capture project covering five Midwestern states.Dallas-based Navigator CO2 Ventures is also planning a five-state carbon dioxide pipeline that would extend from near Sioux City, Iowa, to an ethanol plant in Albion, Nebraska, as part of its 1,200-mile carbon-capture project. Some fertilizer plants may be added as customers as well.Officials with the Nebraska Ethanol Board and the two pipeline companies said these projects are vital to the future of ethanol, by lowering the carbon impact of the corn-based fuel and opening up new markets in states like California and Oregon that have adopted goals for reducing greenhouse gas emissions to combat global warming."This is a critical step to ensure the long-term viability of ethanol," said Jesse Harris, a spokesperson for Summit Carbon Solutions.Ethanol is a huge economic driver in Nebraska, consuming about 38% of the corn grown in the state and providing 1,400 jobs at 25 ethanol plants. Gov. Pete Ricketts, an avid supporter of ethanol, has already expressed support for the Summit Carbon Solutions project, which is being spearheaded by Bruce Rastetter, the former head of the Iowa Board of Regents and a major GOP donor in Iowa, whose company is a major ethanol producer. The company says its project has a capacity of storing 12 million tons of carbon dioxide a year, the equivalent of removing 2.6 million cars from the roads annually, and would cut the carbon footprint of ethanol production by up to 50%. "This is important not just for the future of ethanol, but the future of all of us on planet Earth,"
Interior Department to review New Jersey offshore wind proposal --The Bureau of Ocean Management (BOEM) will review two proposals for wind-energy projects off the coast of New Jersey, the Interior Department announced Tuesday. Atlantic Shores Offshore Wind LLC submitted the proposals, both of which would be located about 9 miles offshore. The first is projected to have a capacity of 1,510 megawatts. A 30-day comment period will begin once the notice of intent for the projects’ Environmental Impact Statements are published in the Federal Register Thursday.“The Interior Department is moving rapidly to develop a clean energy future with good-paying union jobs. Offshore wind holds enormous potential for our nation, and the wind resources offshore New Jersey are no exception,” Interior Secretary Deb Haaland said in a statement Tuesday. “As we kick off this process, the Department will continue to do our part to ensure the development of our offshore renewable energy resources is done responsibly and sustainably.” The announcement comes just under two months after the BOEM announced a separate review of a project that, upon approval, would be the first off the coast of North Carolina. The project, submitted by Kitty Hawk Wind LLC, would comprise up to 69 turbine generators. New Jersey has set a goal of 7.5 gigawatts of offshore wind power generation by 2035, while the Biden administration has established its own target of 30 gigawatts by 2030. The White House has set a broader goal of reducing carbon emissions 45 percent by the same year.
Chinese solar-panel shipments threatened by tariffs - Some Chinese solar-panel manufacturers have stopped sending panels to the United States, or are threatening to halt shipments, over regulatory concerns including a proposal for higher import tariffs, panel buyers and solar-energy developers said at an industry briefing Monday. This freeze could derail the Biden administration’s green-energy goals and lead to large layoffs among U.S. panel installers, the solar developers said, adding that they have already delayed projects because of the lack of inventory.Some panel manufacturers “have already stopped shipping,” said Markus Wilhelm, chief executive of Strata Clean Energy of Durham, N.C. “We are not able to get any obligations going forward for any of the projects that we have already under construction.” The standoff is in reaction to a campaign by U.S.-based solar manufacturers that say they have been harmed by unfair Chinese competition.This freeze could derail the Biden administration’s green-energy goals and lead to large layoffs among U.S. panel installers, the solar developers said, adding that they have already delayed projects because of the lack of inventory. Some panel manufacturers “have already stopped shipping,” said Markus Wilhelm, chief executive of Strata Clean Energy of Durham, N.C. “We are not able to get any obligations going forward for any of the projects that we have already under construction.” The standoff is in reaction to a campaign by U.S.-based solar manufacturers that say they have been harmed by unfair Chinese competition. The Commerce Department is expected to decide this week whether to open an investigation of a petition filed by U.S.-based manufacturers requesting higher import tariffs on panels produced in Southeast Asia by Chinese companies. The petition claims that the Chinese companies have set up limited operations in Vietnam, Malaysia and Thailand only to circumvent anti-dumping tariffs that the United States imposed on Chinese panel producers in 2012. The petitioners argue that the companies are completing only modest final production steps in Southeast Asia while preserving most of their production in China. Fear that the Commerce Department could agree with the petition and impose greater tariffs has prompted some of the targeted manufacturers to stop sending panels to the United States or to stop accepting orders for future deliveries, solar-energy developers and installers said at a briefing organized by the Solar Energy Industries Association.
SSE says low wind, dry conditions hit renewable energy generation --Energy giant SSE said its renewable assets produced 32% less power than expected between April 1 and Sept. 22 thanks to historically dry and low-wind conditions. This equates to 11% of its full-year output target."This shortfall was driven by unfavourable weather conditions over the summer, which was one of the least windy across most of the UK and Ireland and one of the driest in SSE's Hydro catchment areas in the last seventy years," the Perth, Scotland-based company said Wednesday in a statement.Low-wind output over the summer has contributed to the European energy crunch, which sent power prices to record highs in recent days. Other factors include a colder-than-expected winter last year, production cuts during the pandemic, low imports from Russia, high carbon prices and growing demand from Asia for liquefied natural gas.SSE is not the first renewable energy producer to warn about the financial impacts from the summer's slow wind speeds. Danish energy company Orsted made similar comments, saying "earnings from our offshore and onshore wind farms in operation were DKK 0.3 billion lower compared to the same period last year.""The increased generation capacity from new wind farms in operation was more than offset by significantly lower wind speeds across our portfolio," the company said in August, while reiterating it expects to meet its full-year financial targets.More specifically, Orsted said that during the second quarter, wind speeds averaged 7.8 meters per second, which was "significantly lower" than normal speeds of 8.6 meters per second.
Green energy ballot initiative could cost Columbus dearly --The murky "green energy" initiative before Columbus voters in this November's election has had a long, strange trip onto the ballot, and city officials and environmental groups are hoping residents don't unwittingly approve Issue 7.They're warning voters that the initiative would siphon off tens of millions in tax dollars from the city budget and with virtually no public oversight. It would put the money and oversight in the hands of a limited liability corporation named Pro Energy LLC and a secretive cast of characters — one of whom is being prosecuted for election fraud related to the very ballot issue in question.It all started in 2012 when a group with no apparent experience in the energy field — and whose spokeswoman was an exotic dancer who went by the stage name Zulie Perfect — claimed they had the financial backing of companies in the solar energy field and began a quest to put an alarmingly costly Ohio constitutional amendment before voters.That measure sought to transfer $13 billion in state bond money to a New York bank account controlled by an unknown group of investors, who supposedly would then take it upon themselves to fund private infrastructure, research and development of "clean-energy initiatives" at their discretion.The only certainty about how that money would be spent was that the group had earmarked $65 million as "management fees" for themselves. That 2012 proposal was widely panned, with 11 environmental groups and a long line of state officials effectively labeling it a giant scam. The measure died after failing to secure the needed 385,247 signatures to go on the statewide ballot.The group's effort would fail five times at the state level. But it wasn't over… The group's stated purpose is to "further the purpose of reducing the cost of electricity for customers who live in Columbus with a subsidy to purchase electricity from only wind, solar, fuel cell, geothermal, or hydropower producers."Thus began a series of maneuvers by concerned city officials to keep the measure off the ballot on technicalities. The group corrected those issues and filed again in 2020, and the city knocked it off the ballot again based on technicalities, including that the initiative's title wasn't descriptive enough for voters to understand its intent. By this time, ProEnergy Ohio's John Clarke, an electrical engineer and Columbus resident who appeared to be leading the effort, had stopped responding to media inquiries as the group headed to court to challenge the city's refusal to put the measure on the ballot.The case went all the way to the Ohio Supreme Court, which last May held that the city had abused its power in finding faults with ProEnergy's paperwork, and ordered that the ballot measure immediately be put on the November ballot. And here we are.
$17M wood pellet plant slated for port facility | South Alabamian - Jackson’s City Council took the first step toward the establishment of a new Jackson industry Tuesday. A resolution was passed at the council meeting seeking a tax abatement for CM Biomass dba Jackson Pellets.The company plans to locate a wood pellet plant at the port that will create 20-25 new jobs. Mayor Paul South said the city and the industrial development board have been working on the $17,000,000 project for eight months.South said Wednesday that the project had been months in the works. “We had to sign a confidentiality agreement and keep quiet about it,” he explained.South said, “I have to be honest, when they first approached us about building a pellet plant I took it with a grain of salt.” Jackson has had past pellet plants that didn’t work out.But this one is the real thing, South said. “We will be utilizing the port and the Tombigbee River.”South said that with the $450 million expansion at the PCA paper mill and retail growth in the city, “Jackson is moving forward.”The resolution passed Tuesday will go to the Alabama Department of Commerce then to the Legislature for approval.
Biofuel groups fear drastic action from EPA - AFBF and biofuels groups are sounding the alarm over a report that says the White House is mulling major cuts to biofuel blending requirements.According to a document reviewed by Reuters, the EPA is considering retroactively dropping fueling blending mandates by up to 3 billion gallons for 2020 and 2021. The document reportedly shows ethanol bearing the brunt of the cuts, dropping by 2.5 billion gallons for 2020.Lowering the blend requirements for past years would mean that oil refiners who do not meet the fuel mixing standards would have to buy fewer renewable fuel credits from other refiners that comply with the regulations.In a joint statement, eight biofuel and farm advocacy groups, including AFBF, NCGA and American Soybean Association wrote, “While a formal proposal has not been released, the expected standards would destroy a decade of progress on low-carbon biofuels and brazenly violate the promises that President Biden made to farmers, green voters, and his own allies in Congress.”The groups cite reports that say the EPA could even look to eliminate renewable fuels from past obligations, which they say effectively gives petroleum companies a retroactive license to force more fossil fuels into the U.S. energy mix.“We are deeply concerned that this administration is favoring the oil industry over the environment, rural communities, and hardworking farmers by providing handouts that eclipse those obtained by fossil fuel advocates under the previous administration,” the advocacy groups wrote.
Bill banning small, gas-powered engines and generators heads to Governor's desk -— A bill is now on Governor Gavin Newsom’s desk that could disproportionately impact families in the Central Valley and nearby foothill and mountain communities. Assembly Bill 1346 would end the production of gas-powered small, off-road engines--used in lawn and garden equipment and generators-- by January 1, 2024. Authors of the bill say small off-road engines produced more emissions than cars in 2020. It would replace the gas-powered engines with zero emission battery technology. "It doesn’t compare to what you’d get with a gas-powered unit,” says Robert Vasquez, with Jensen and Pilegard in Clovis. "Many people who live in the mountains rely on generators to kick on when the power shuts off, so a lot of their medical devices can operate even during a shutoff," says Fresno County Supervisor Nathan Magsig, who represents Eastern Fresno County. Magsig is now among those calling on the Governor to veto AB 1346 – or request generators be excluded from the regulations. "A lot of folks who create these laws forget that here in the Central Valley, it's over 100 degrees, many, many days during the summer. When the grid has to be shut down for one reason or another, folks have no other options when it comes to powering not only their air conditioning, but also their medical devices,” Magsig says. The bill’s primary sponsors and co-authors represent districts in Southern California, the Bay area and Salinas. Lawmakers representing the Central Valley either voted against AB1346 or were absent for the vote. Governor Newsom has 30 days to sign the bill, veto the bill, or take no action. Magsig says his office is in the process of reaching out to the Governor’s office to ask Newsom to veto the bill.
21 states urge Biden to consider stricter car emissions rules than proposed - A coalition of 21 state attorneys general on Monday urged the Biden administration to consider tighter vehicle tailpipe emissions standards than what the administration has currently proposed. Last month, the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) proposed to ratchet up vehicle tailpipe emissions limits after the Trump administration weakened the standards. In its proposal, the agency outlined three alternatives, a “preferred alternative” and two others that are less stringent and more stringent, respectively. The Democratic state lawyers, alongside lawyers representing the cities of Washington, D.C., New York and Los Angeles, said that the EPA should consider the strictest alternative. “We urge EPA to adopt the most stringent standards for which the statutory requirement to provide adequate lead time is satisfied,” they wrote in comments filed on the proposal. They specifically cited the impacts of pollution on human health and the changing climate. “There is no time to lose in acting to avoid the catastrophic impacts of the climate crisis. We, therefore, urge EPA to expeditiously adopt rigorous GHG standards for model years 2023 through 2026,” they wrote. The EPA standards, alongside a separate set of vehicle milage standards from the Transportation Department, are expected to push the market towards electric vehicles. In addition to these shorter-term standards, which will begin in the model year 2023 for the EPA and model year 2024 for the Transportation Department, the administration is also expected to pursue longer-term standards.
Battery recycling plant to be built at Tuscaloosa industrial park --A Canada-based electric vehicle battery recycling plant will be housed in the Tuscaloosa County Airport Industrial Park and receive a little more $1 million in tax incentives. According to a news release from the Tuscaloosa County Economic Development Authority, Li‐Cycle’s lithium‐ion battery recycling plant is expected to begin operations by mid-2022 and create around 78 jobs by its third year of operation. “This is another significant and welcomed step into the future of electric vehicle development in our county,” said Rob Robertson, who serves as the chairman of the Tuscaloosa County Commission. “Getting ahead of the growing need to recycle batteries will benefit us all going forward.” The Tuscaloosa County Economic Development Authority said the Li-Cycle plant will cost $18.7 million in land, building and equipment. The authority on Thursday approved $1,168,554 in tax abatements for the plant. During the first 10 years of operations, the project is estimated to contribute more than $1.2 million in tax revenue in non‐abated taxes, authority officials said.
Electric trucks could handle millions of short-haul routes across North America -- Mike Roeth, executive director of the North American Council for Freight Efficiency, is confident that the U.S. and Canada can convert more than 5 million medium- and heavy-duty trucks from fossil fuels to electric without disrupting the flow of cargo they carry. And he has the data to back it up. Subscribe to receive Canary's latest news That data comes from Run on Less-Electric, a just-concluded test conducted by major freight companies across six states and two Canadian provinces. Over three weeks, Run on Less collected data on electric delivery vans, box trucks, port terminal tractors and heavy-duty semitractor-trailers making standard daily deliveries, ranging from taking beer and potato chips to grocery stores to moving cargo containers between seaports and distribution centers. Roeth has coordinated two previous Run on Less events to collect real-time data on new high-efficiency truck designs, working in partnership with nonprofit research organization RMI and with support from the Department of Energy’s SuperTruck program. (Canary Media is an independent affiliate of RMI.) But this is the first test that focused on electric trucks — and according to preliminary data and reports from the companies and drivers involved, the trucks are ready for action. Roeth described a few snags in the test drives during a Wednesday event at Climate Week NYC, such as “downtime events on a few of the trucks.” But outside a handful of hang-ups like these, “all of the trucks operated very well over the three weeks.” In fact, the feedback from the 13 participating companies, which included Anheuser-Busch, Frito-Lay, NFI and DHL, indicated that “these electric trucks are performing better than recent diesel…introductions,” he said. That’s not surprising, given that electric-drivetrain-equipped trucks are considered to be easier to operate and are cheaper to maintain than internal combustion engine models. What hasn’t been as clear to the trucking industry is whether electric trucks can match the range and refueling flexibility of their fossil-fueled predecessors. But that wasn’t a problem for the vehicles running the daily duty cycles chosen for this test, Roeth said. Most, in fact, never dropped below 50 percent charge on their batteries, and they had plenty of time to slow-charge overnight without straining the power grids they were connected to. Roughly half of all freight trips completed each day in the U.S. are less than 100 miles in length, so it’s a significant finding that electric vehicles can make those deliveries with no major problems, Michael Berube, DOE deputy assistant secretary for sustainable transportation, said at Wednesday’s event. Only a few years ago, the conventional wisdom held that “we’ll never electrify trucks,” he said. “But the reality is, as [this research has] shown, there are some parts of that market that are ready today…where it will make economic sense to switch over, between the lower fuel costs and the lower operation costs of these electric vehicles.” That, in turn, could have an outsized impact on reducing greenhouse gas emissions from transportation, the largest single source of U.S. carbon emissions by sector, said Jason Mathers, director of vehicles and freight strategy at the Environmental Defense Fund.
Unions and EVs: Can Dems really have both? - Imagine two $40,000 American-made electric cars, one made by a unionized workers in Michigan and the other by nonunion workers in Tennessee. After a proposed federal tax break, the Tennessee vehicle would cost $32,500 and the Michigan one would cost $28,000. Is that fair? Now imagine the workers who made those cars. The median hourly wage for a union Michigan assembly worker is about $21, while the nonunion Tennessee worker is $18. Is that fair? These two questions are converging in the form of a controversial provision in the giant budget reconciliation package under consideration in Congress. For the first time, Congress is on the cusp of tying billions of dollars of vehicle subsidies to the labor status of the people making the vehicle. The effort is unique because it hitches the uptake of EVs — and thus the trajectory of climate change — to labor policy, and specifically a bid to force automakers to drop decades of resistance to organized labor. "It’s an interesting tool to use to try to create leverage," said Dan Gilmore, a labor attorney who has represented automakers and teaches labor issues at the University of Tennessee, Chattanooga. "This would be the first, I can’t think of another example." It is one of the boldest union-building experiments yet by President Biden, who rarely misses a chance to link his economic and climate agenda to unions (Energywire, March 17). Biden and his Democratic allies in Congress say more union representation in the workplace is crucial to raising wages and benefits and re-creating middle-class prosperity. But unable to pass legislation that would tilt labor law more in favor of workers, they are finding other ways to do it — in this case, in the form of a federal tax subsidy worth as much as $4,500 per vehicle. "It’s employers who largely determine whether workers will organize based on the strength of their resistance," said Thomas Kochan, an industrial-relations professor at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. "And that is a big social problem that needs to be addressed." But critics say this social experiment might not work out the way that Democrats expect. If those nonunion automakers don’t bow to the pressure, and if union organizers fail to win over the workers, Americans would be less able to afford the new EV models those automakers have coming. That, in turn, could dampen the adoption curve of electric vehicles and prolong U.S. dependence on fossil fuels that warm the climate.
In rift with Entergy, New Orleans City Council outkicks its coverage | Columnist James Gill -An Entergy press release conveys a distinctly unsubtle warning of how unwise it would be for New Orleans or Louisiana to get too big for their boots.In the event of negotiations over the future of utility regulation hereabouts, it is blindingly obvious that Entergy will hold the whip hand from jump street. If a divorce is contemplated, the company will be like the savvy plutocrat who winds up with all the glittering jewelry while government's role will be the heartbroken partner who has to settle for visitation rights with the cat.Entergy just declared record profits of $1.4 billion for last year, while the coronavirus and climate change combine not just to undermine the economy of southern Louisiana, but threaten to drive its inhabitants away.Separate Entergy subsidiaries control the light bills in and outside New Orleans, but such is the nature of the utility racket that a healthy bottom line is virtually guaranteed for both. Companies are granted monopoly rights by government in exchange for a fixed rate of return on investment. The Entergy numbers suggest that the resulting deal can be a very sweet one.Entergy has been in Louisiana, in various guises, for more than a century and, with headquarters on Loyola Avenue, is the only Fortune 500 company in New Orleans. We need each other for sure but there is no question that, if Entergy were to up sticks, the impact would be more devastating for New Orleans and Louisiana. From Entergy's point of view, a move might make sense. The company keeps expanding its base of operations just outside Houston and could easily administer its Louisiana show from there. Moving its corporate headquarters out of New Orleans would amount to such a stab in the back, however, that it appears out of the question PR-wise so long as Entergy holds the contract for keeping the lights on around here.Louisiana regulators — the Public Service Commission and the New Orleans City Council — may make brave noises about keeping Entergy on a tighter rein, but everyone knows that they daren't switch suppliers. Indeed, relations between PSC regulators and Entergy executives, fueled by food and drink, have always been cordial, while the New Orleans City Council has cut in its pals from the local bar for a share of the huge fees generated by the out-of-state law firms provide advice on utility issues.
Environmental advocates express concerns about new Entergy facility --Environmental advocates are calling for a public forum regarding a new Entergy Texas’ power station proposed for Bridge City.The Lone Star Chapter of the Sierra Club and other conservation groups, including the local Port Arthur Community Action Network, have started a campaign that included submitting form letters from 465 members across its network asking for a public hearing and giving information about pollution in the area. It also included a section for residents to include their own comments as well.At least six people from Southeast Texas joined the effort to seek further scrutiny from the Texas Commission on Environmental Quality into the proposal to create the mostly natural gas-burning plant.“We demand that TCEQ hold a public meeting in the community as soon as possible on this dangerous proposal, and we ask Entergy to look at alternative ways to meet energy supply and reduce energy demand in our area,” John Beard, CEO of the Port Arthur Community Action Network, said in a statement.The groups have criticized the plant’s location in an area already occupied by numerous heavy industrial emitters, its estimated annual emissions and its proximity to recreational areas.Dubbed the Orange County Advanced Power Station and expected to power around 230,000 homes by 2026, the plant has been framed by the utility as a tool to reduce its carbon footprint and improve efficiency.While planned to primarily use natural gas, the plant will be the company’s first to also be able to use hydrogen immediately upon start-up.
Regulators to weigh whether extending power plants is worth $443 million for ratepayers - West Virginia regulators are weighing a decision that could extend the lifespan of three coal-fired power plants versus a $443.8 million cost for ratepayers.The state Public Service Commission plans to consider the options Friday. A public hearing will be from 8 to 9 a.m. with an evidentiary hearing after that. The hearing will be streamed on the commission’s website at www.psc.state.wv.us.Some of the groups involved in this debate say the one morning of consideration really isn’t enough.“This working timeline set by the Commission does not provide adequate opportunity for public comment, as this is a case that widely impacts a half-million ratepayers in 23 counties, from Wheeling to Welch,” said Gaylene Miller, state policy director of AARP West Virginia. She urged at least one more public comment hearing for a longer period, and to include an opportunity for evening participation.It’s a heavy issue, hinging on whether it’s worth millions of dollars of investments to extend the service of three aging coal-fired power plants — John Amos, Mountaineer and Mitchell.Without the full array of environmental upgrades, the power plants might remain in operation for just the next few years, until 2028. With the changes, the power plants could remain in operation until 2040.Doing so could assure the jobs associated with the plants, as well as economic viability in the surrounding communities.The question is whether that’s worth the price of increased costs to ratepayers, including average citizens and big power users such as manufacturers.West Virginia regulators already weighed the costs and benefits once and decided to go all-in on the upgrades. The twist is that two other states — Virginia and Kentucky — have a say-so in the future of the three power plants too. Regulators in those two states declined the full range of improvements. So if West Virginia regulators opt to go ahead, the full financial burden would fall to ratepayers here.
West Virginia Coal Association president backs upgrades to coal-fired plants - WV MetroNews— The president of the West Virginia Coal Association described keeping three coal-fired power plants in West Virginia open as important for local communities and the state.Chris Hamilton’s comments on Monday’s “MetroNews Talkline” came days after the Public Service Commission of West Virginia held a public hearing about Appalachian Power and Wheeling Power’s request to increase rates to upgrade the John Amos, Mountaineer and Mitchell facilities.The utilities have argued $443.8 million is necessary for environmental upgrades to the three plants. Upgraded plants could remain in operation until 2040 compared to 2028 without any additional work.“It’s been clearly developed that the replacement cost for any of these three plants is going to be in the neighborhood of 10 times the operating costs of the current plants,” Hamilton said on Monday’s “MetroNews Talkline.”“If we shut those plants down today or 10 years from now, you’re going to, first of all, continue to pay for that plant that’s paid for. You’re going to continue to pay for that like your first mortgage well into the future, but then you’re going to have a second mortgage that all West Virginians are going to have to share the cost going forward as well.”
West Virginia Gov. Jim Justice Offers $300 Million Settlement Payment to Credit Suisse – WSJ - West Virginia Gov. Jim Justice has offered a $300 million payment and half the value of his family coal businesses to settle loans from the now-defunct Greensill Capital, according to people familiar with the deliberations.The proposal is part of talks between the governor’s family business, Bluestone ResourcesInc., BSR -4.29% and Credit Suisse CS -1.33% Group AG, which manages investment funds that were Greensill’s main source of cash for its lending business.Mr. Justice’s heavily indebted family businesses were thrown into turmoil by Greensill’s collapse. He and his family borrowed $850 million from Greensill and he said in June the outstanding loans were “a burden on our family beyond belief.” Mr. Justice and his family members personally guaranteed the loans.The second-term Republican governor and his family control a sprawling collection of mining, agricultural and real-estate assets, including West Virginia’s famed Greenbrier Resort—host to past PGA Tour events—a casino and medical clinic. He has had to juggle managing the state’s response to the Covid-19 pandemic with his family’s debt woes. Earlier this month, Mr. Justice settled a long-running dispute with another lender, Carter Bank & Trust, in which the two sides agreed to restructure $368 million in loans.At a news conference Monday, Mr. Justice said Credit Suisse and his family members led by his son, Jay Justice, Bluestone’s chief executive, are “working together really really well.”Mr. Justice said the coal business is “doing fantastic” and his “family finances are great.” Coal prices have risen in recent months. Mr. Justice has said his family used the Greensill loans to rebuild Bluestone after buying it back in 2015 from a Russian mining company.In the talks with Credit Suisse, Mr. Justice’s companies have offered to pay Credit Suisse $300 million, the people said. It would source the money by refinancing a chunk of the existing loans with a third-party lender. It couldn’t be learned who the lender for the transaction would be.Mr. Justice would also pledge to pay half of the proceeds to Credit Suisse of a sale or initial public offering of Bluestone, the family company that operates coal mines and that took the loans. Any sale would have to take into account the company’s debt load, the people said.Credit Suisse has said in notices to investors that Bluestone owes it nearly $700 million. The Wall Street Journal has reported that Bluestone owes the remainder of what it borrowed from Greensill to creditors of Greensill’s banking unit in Bremen, Germany. Bluestone in a lawsuit filed against Greensill in March said the company already paid around $108 million in fees to access the $850 million in financing. “Credit Suisse Asset Management is doing everything we can to maximize recovery for our fund investors,” said a Credit Suisse spokesperson. “If outstanding debtors put proposals to us, we will of course look at them.”
Kentucky goes after $2.9 million from W.Va. Gov. Jim Justice -West Virginia Gov. Jim Justice has defaulted on a promise to fix environmental problems at coal mines in Eastern Kentucky and should have to pay more than $3 million, state regulators argue.Attorneys for the Kentucky Energy and Environment Cabinet filed a motion this week asking a judge to enforce an agreement that included a $2,998,995 penalty against Justice; his son, Jay Justice; and several family coal companies for reclamation violations.The payoff would be higher because the agreement called for 8 percent interest going back to 2015, according to the court record.The state also wants to revoke five permits at Justice-company mines in Kentucky; take the reclamation money posted for the mines; require the companies to fix violations at the sites and reclaim them; and block Justice companies from getting new coal permits or amending current permits until they fix the violations.The Justices and their companies “have been provided many second chances to meet their permit obligations and time and again have failed,” the state’s lawyers said in the motion. Richard A. Getty, a Lexington attorney who represents the Justices, said they will oppose the state’s request, calling it “unnecessarily severe.”
Ohio lawmakers line up to repeal subsidy for coal plants (AP) — Some lawmakers in the Ohio Legislature want to end a subsidy for two unprofitable Cold War-era coal plants that have cost state electric customers more than $340 million thus far and leave them on the hook for hundreds of millions more, thanks to a tainted energy bill that led to the biggest corruption scandal in state history. A bill in the Senate is sponsored by a Republican and a Democrat, and the more recent House version is sponsored by two Republicans. The subsidy for the Ohio Valley Electric Corporation plants was a late addition to a 2019 energy bill that initially focused on a $1 billion bailout for two nuclear power plants. One of the plants is southern Ohio’s Gallia County. The other is in Madison, Indiana, roughly 70 miles (110 kilometers) southwest of Cincinnati. Bill sponsor Rep. Laura Lanese, a Republican from Grove City, in written testimony this week before the House Utilities Committee, said that the plants are unprofitable and that their subsidy distorts free market principles and chases away competition. Co-sponsor Rep. Reggie Stoltzfus, a Republican from Paris Township, wrote that the parent bill must be dismantled piece by piece “in order to restore the public’s trust.” The Legislature repealed the nuclear plant subsidy earlier this year, months after then-Ohio House Speaker Larry Householder and four others were indicted for their roles in a $60 million bribery scheme secretly funded by FirstEnergy Corp. to win passage of the nuclear bailout. Before the bill, only customers from AEP Ohio, Duke Energy Ohio and AES Ohio, formerly Dayton Power & Light, were charged for the plants, paying $176 million from 2016 through 2019. The bill required customers of FirstEnergy’s three Ohio electric companies to also subsidize the plants. Ohio customers paid around $115 million in 2020 and $51 million for the first six months of 2021.
Unprecedented power outages hit China's homes and factories, increasing global supply chain chaos -Coal shortages are causing unprecedented power outages in parts of China ahead of the winter season, affecting the country's economy and increasing global supply chain chaos. It's estimated that around 44% of China's industrial activity is affected by outages. With nearly 60% of the Chinese economy powered by coal, entire power grids in parts of the country are now facing collapse. Nationwide power curbs, caused by many factors including a steep jump in coal prices and surging demand, have led to side effects at Chinese factories of all kinds, with some cutting output or halting production entirely.1Industry insiders predict that the situation may worsen before it gets better, as the inventories of some power plants are inadequate while the winter season rapidly approaches. According to Goldman Sachs estimates, as much as 44% of China’s industrial activity has been affected by power shortages, potentially causing a 1-percentage-point decline in annualized GDP growth in the third quarter, and a 2-percentage-point drop from October to December.2Andy Mok, a senior research fellow at the Centre for China and Globalisation, described the outages as a 'short-term cyclical problem' and said he expected the Chinese government to step in to fix the issue.3"In the northeast of China it can get bitterly cold and as winter comes on, ensuring adequate heat and electricity for the people there is a top priority," Mok told Al Jazeera.In Dongguan, the world-class manufacturing hub in South China's Guangdong Province, power shortages have put companies such as Dongguan Yuhong Wood Industry in a tough situation, placing caps on electricity use in the company's wood and steel processing factories."Production is banned from 8 - 10 pm, and electricity should be reserved for sustaining the daily life of the public," an employee surnamed Zhang told the Global Times Sunday.1 "Our total capacity had been decreased by about 50%," Zhang said.Power rationing in China's northeastern industrial heartland began on September 23 and the entire power grid in the region is in danger of collapse, the Beijing News reports.3 Power rationing there took place without advanced warning, according to the Global Times, sparking public anger as the outages shut down traffic lights and 3G mobile phone coverage in some areas.2
State, federal actions show growing push for a nuclear role in reaching net zero emissions - Nuclear power advocates are increasingly emphasizing the value of existing but financially struggling U.S. nuclear plants in curbing carbon emissions and addressing climate change. Questions about nuclear power's costs and safety that kept it at 18% to 20.6% of U.S. electricity generation from 1990 to 2020 left little support for new plants. But extreme weather-driven disasters and predictions of much worse in the recent reports from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administrationare driving new thinking about existing plants."The economic feasibility of existing nuclear is a very different question depending on whether the power market values clean energy," said Exelon Senior Vice President of Regulatory Policy and Analysis Mason Emnett. In a power market that compensates all clean resources, "our nuclear units could compete, operate safely and reliably, and be relicensed." "Financial incentives for zero-carbon generation are a no-brainer," said Analysis Group Senior Advisor Susan Tierney, a former nuclear skeptic, Department of Energy (DOE) official, and Massachusetts utilities regulator. Unsafe nuclear plants should not be preserved, but incentives for existing and safe nuclear are better than rising emissions from increased use of natural gas generation, she added.Growing support for new federal and state initiatives to support nuclear power shows clean energy advocates and power system analysts are confronting the possibility that the transition to net zero emissions may require investment in existing nuclear. The changing appreciation of existing nuclear, and its role in fighting climate change, is reflected in laws enacted from 2017 to 2019 to fund zero emissions credits (ZECs) in Connecticut, Illinois, New Jersey, New York and Ohio. While ZEC programs differ, existing nuclear plants generally receive above the electricity market price for the power they produce based on "an established social cost of carbon" that reflects the environmental cost of emissions, a 2019 Department of Energy report said.
Bitcoin Miners Eye Nuclear Power as Environmental Criticism Mounts – WSJ -Bitcoin miners, under fire for their sizable environmental footprint, are forging partnerships with owners of struggling nuclear-power plants with electricity to spare.The matchups have the potential to solve key issues facing each industry, executives and analysts say: Electricity-hungry bitcoin miners want stable and carbon-free power, while nuclear plants facing competition from cheaper power sources need new customers.Talen Energy Corp. has entered into a joint venture with bitcoin-mining company TeraWulf Inc., which has started land development for a mining facility the size of four football fields next to its Pennsylvania nuclear plant. Nuclear generator Energy Harbor Corp. will provide power to a Standard Power mining center in Ohio starting in December. New nuclear projects are eyeing cryptocurrency miners as well: Startup Oklo Inc., which plans to build a small-scale fission power plant that can run on used nuclear fuel, has signed a 20-year supply deal with hardware and hosting firm Compass Mining.“Both industry’s challenges are the other industry’s positives,” Mining bitcoin is an energy-intensive process. To unlock more of the currency, miners must solve mathematical puzzles that become increasingly complex, which means they require more computing power—and electricity. Mining a decade ago required only a person with a PC, but rising bitcoin prices and a limited supply have created a race. The way to boost the odds of figuring out the puzzle is to put more machines to work. “At the core of bitcoin mining is energy and energy infrastructure,” said Paul Prager, chief executive of TeraWulf.The rise of vast mining operations has fueled criticism from environmentalists and others that growing use of fossil-fuel electricity for cryptocurrency could waste resources and worsen climate change. A tweet from Tesla Inc. Chief Executive Elon Musk expressing concern over the environmental impact of mining operations briefly caused bitcoin prices to fall in May. Nuclear power, meanwhile, has lost public favor in the wake of accidents such as Japan’s 2011 Fukushima disaster and has struggled to compete economically in the U.S.Nuclear plants provide a steady source of emissions-free power, but like coal-fired power plants, many face a daunting challenge selling their output in wholesale power markets amid stiff competition from wind and solar power—and natural-gas generation, which became cheaper after the fracking boom led to huge new discoveries of the fuel.
The Record-Breaking Failures of Nuclear Power - The Tennessee Valley Authority could likely rightfully claim a place in the Guinness Book of World Records, but it’s not an achievement for which the federally-owned electric utility corporation would welcome notoriety. After taking a whopping 42 years to build and finally bring on line its Watts Bar Unit 2 nuclear power reactor in Tennessee, TVA just broke its own record for longest nuclear plant construction time. However, this time, the company failed to deliver a completed nuclear plant. Watts Bar 2 achieved criticality in May 2016, then promptly came off line due to a transformer fire three months later. It finally achieved full operational status on October 19, 2016, making it the first United States reactor to enter commercial operation since 1996. Now, almost five years later, TVA has announced it has abandoned its unfinished two-reactor Bellefonte nuclear plant in Alabama, a breathtaking 47 years after construction began. TVA was apparently happy to get out of the nuclear construction business, because, as the Chattanooga Times Free Press reported, the company “did not see the need for such a large and expensive capacity generation source.” No kidding! Ironically, this is precisely the argument used to advance renewables, in an energy environment that cannot and will no longer support inflexible, large, thermo-electric generators that are completely impractical under the coming smart grids as well as climate change-induced conditions. Accordingly, TVA was more than happy to accept overtures from a purchaser for Bellefonte — the Haney real estate company— whose director, Frank Haney, gained his own notoriety by lavishing $1 million on former President Trump and courting Trump’s lawyer, Michael Cohen, possibly, suggested media reports, to curry regulatory favors for his new nuclear toy. But when TVA announced last month that it had withdrawn its construction permit for Bellefonte, Haney got his down payment back — to the tune of $22.9 million plus interest. TVA had itself spent at least $5.8 billion on Bellefonte over the 47 years, which included long stoppages, before finally pulling the plug. This kind of colossal waste of time and money on failed nuclear power projects is, of course, the more typical story than the myths spun in the press about the need for “low carbon” nuclear energy, a misleading representation used to argue for nuclear power’s inclusion in climate change mitigation. In reality, the story of nuclear power development in the US over the last 50 years is beyond pitiful and would not pass muster under any “normal” business plan. How the nuclear industry gets away with it remains baffling.
Ohio governor lobbyist resigns; was linked to bribery probe (AP) — Ohio Gov. Mike DeWine’s top lobbyist, a man linked to an ongoing federal bribery probe but never charged, resigned Friday after three years on the job. Legislative Director Dan McCarthy cited “the pace and grind” of the job and referred to predecessors who warned him against serving more than two years.“I know I’ve run quite a bit over my two year commitment but I think now is the right time to resign as your Legislative Director,” McCarthy wrote in his letter to the Republican DeWine.Federal prosecutors charged five individuals last year, including the then-House speaker, with orchestrating a $60 million bribery scheme to assure the 2019 passage of a bill bailing out two nuclear power plants. Prosecutors say the scheme also involved killing efforts to put a petition on the ballot to overturn the bailout. The power plants were operated at the time by a wholly-owned subsidiary of Akron-based FirstEnergy Corp. McCarthy is a former FirstEnergy lobbyist who was president of one of the dark money groups, Partners for Progress, which has been implicated in the alleged bribery scheme. McCarthy has said his actions were legal and DeWine’s office has said it has no indication McCarthy is a target of the probe, which continues.Details in July court filings said Partners for Progress appeared to be independent while actually being controlled by FirstEnergy. FirstEnergy admitted to hand-picking the organization’s three leaders, including McCarthy, and funneling $15 million in FirstEnergy cash through the nonprofit to another dark money group, Generation Now. Generation Now pleaded guilty to its role in the scheme in February. In addition, FirstEnergy has admitted to using dark money groups to fund the bailout effort, and agreed to pay $230 million and other conditions so prosecutors won’t forge ahead with a criminal case against the company.
Gene Krebs: PUCO should be reform to protect taxpayers from corrupt utilities - A little more than 20 years ago, I voted for the legislation that partially deregulated the electric utility industry in Ohio. The key word is “partially.” After my eight years in the Ohio House of Representatives, this is the one vote that has continued to nag at me; I always had the feeling that I missed something. The House Bill 6 corruption debacle has illustrated for me what I missed; that as a result of partial deregulation, the utility companies have incentives to purchase influence in the Ohio Statehouse to create subsidies for themselves. Forty years ago there was an attempt at reform to reduce the influence of the utilities over the Public Utilities Commission of Ohio. A nominating council was created to send names to the governor to consider for appointment to the PUCO; in that time a governor has appointed just four persons with a known history of consumer advocacy. It could be concluded that the PUCO is a victim of “regulatory capture” — control of a public regulatory agency by the industry it is charged with regulating. One aspect of regulatory capture is removing potential obstacles to dominance and control. Ohio’s regulated electric utilities attempted that 10 years ago when they convinced the John Kasich administration to eliminate the Ohio Consumers’ Counsel, an independent agency with the exclusive charge of representing the interests of consumers. The utilities almost succeeded, but settled for cutting the agency’s budget and staff by half. Other more recent efforts to destroy the agency were abandoned after the FBI started making arrests. As the former chair of the governing board of the Ohio Consumers’ Counsel, I have been pondering reform for a while. Reluctantly, I have come to the conclusion that the PUCO needs to be elected as in 13 other states, allowing consumers a direct say in representing the public’s interest.
Pa. Dems running for Senate shun talk of fracking ban - Proposals to ban fracking have grown more popular in recent years among Democrats, but the party’s leading Senate candidates in Pennsylvania are pushing back. Both candidates, Lt. Gov. John Fetterman and Rep. Conor Lamb, say they would defend hydraulic fracturing, or fracking, for oil and natural gas. Fetterman argues that a ban would turn off voters. Lamb agrees, and says he backed then-candidate Joe Biden for the Democratic presidential nomination due, in part, to his refusal to endorse a total fracking ban. It’s one area of agreement between two candidates with sharp differences in a number of policy fields. Fetterman has positioned himself as a progressive, and Lamb has fashioned himself as a centrist. Fetterman initially backed Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), who introduced a bill last year to ban fracking nationwide, in the 2020 presidential election (E&E News PM, Jan. 30, 2020). The two are now seeking to flip outgoing Republican Sen. Pat Toomey’s seat. Meanwhile, the leading candidate seeking to keep the seat in the GOP column, Sean Parnell, an Army veteran and former President Trump’s choice to be the nominee, also opposes fracking bans. “There really is no strong pro-environment major candidate in the race,” said Jeff Brauer, a political science professor at Keystone College, “which, of course, in turn, most likely means that the next Pennsylvania U.S. senator will be pro-fracking to some degree.”
PA Groups Urge State to Increase Oil, Gas Well Bond Amounts - Some environmental groups are formally requesting that Pennsylvania’s Environmental Quality Board raise the bond amounts companies pay to drill oil and gas wellsThe Sierra Club, the Clean Air Council and four other groups have sent two petitions, asking the board to adopt full-cost bonding, both for conventional and unconventional oil and gas wells. Drillers currently pay only a fraction of the bond amount needed to clean up and plug abandoned wells, which leak methane and raise environmental concerns.Ankit Jain, associate attorney with the Sierra Club’s environmental law program, said this increase is a critical way to hold companies accountable for the impacts they leave on communities nearby.“We want the amount of money that you’ll get back from plugging the well to be the same amount of money as it would actually cost to plug the well itself,” he said. “So now, you have every incentive to plug the well, because you just get that money back anyways. And it’s not left unattended to pollute the environment and eventually, for taxpayers to spend money cleaning up.”The groups are asking the board to raise the bond amount to $38,000 per conventional well, and $83,000 per fracked well. Pennsylvania has more than 6,000 so-called “orphan” gas wells, with hundreds of thousands yet to be found, according to the state Department of Environmental Protection.About 5% to 8% of all methane emissions in Pennsylvania are caused by abandoned oil and gas wells, according to a study by Stanford and Princeton universities. Alex Bomstein, a senior litigation attorney for the Clean Air Council, said this pollution risk can have major consequences for residents living around well sites. “So it’s a huge and essentially unquantified problem that we’re all experiencing the consequences of, in terms of the results of exposure to toxins,” he said, “often without people realizing that part of the reason they’re sick is because of the pollution from these abandoned wells.”The state Department of Environmental Protection is required to respond to the petitions within 30 days about whether they meet the legal requirements for the board to consider them.
Company planning a second shale wastewater injection well in Plum - Pittsburgh Post-Gazette - With Allegheny County’s first oil and gas waste injection well less than a year old, the Delmont-based company behind it has already filed for a permit for another one in Plum.Penneco Environmental Solutions has asked federal regulators to convert another oil and gas well on the same property into an injection well to store the briny brew that comes out of oil and gas wells.The operating well, called Sedat 3A, was converted in the same way. The well pad that holds it has three other old oil wells on it.One of those is now being used as a monitoring well — to spot potential issues with the injection well. The remaining two are destined for the same dynamic. One, if permitted, will receive oil and gas wastewater, and the other will transmit hydrological information.Penneco’s new well permit filing is likely to elicit a new round of opposition from residents and environmental groups, which tried to stop the company from siting its first injection well in the area — asking that this industrial activity not be permitted so close to population centers and waterways. Penneco’s Chief Operating Officer Ben Wallace is expecting the pushback.“I don’t expect people to say, ‘Thank you for putting an injection well in our backyard,’” Mr. Wallace said. “It’s an industrial necessity. It’s got to go somewhere.“I get that people are going to be opposed, but that’s the right of citizens.” He said Penneco plans to bring its new well proposal to Plum before the end of the year.Penneco began injecting brine into the Sedat 3A well in late February, Mr. Wallace said. That was around the same time as Pittsburgh Mayor Bill Peduto and the chief executive of the Pittsburgh Water and Sewer Authority asked Gov. Tom Wolf to “revise or repeal” Penneco’s permit, citing concerns that it was 10 miles upstream from PWSA’s intake pipes for its treatment plant on the Allegheny River.But it wasn’t until Labor Day that the company went around the clock, launching a 24-hour operation. Mr. Wallace said the well is currently accepting wastewater from 28 different drillers and that it fields, on average, about 24 trucks daily — each capable of holding 100 barrels of waste.
Governor Wolf has an oil and gas problem. -One need look no further than the fifth iteration of Pennsylvania’s Climate Action Plan released last week to find proof of Governor Wolf’s dangerous relationship with the oil and gas industry. This year, the UN IPCC has come out sounding the alarm that extreme weather impacts from the climate crisis are here, they’re widespread, and that governments must prioritize action to cut methane pollution to avoid climate catastrophe in our lifetimes.This year, the International Energy Agency, an institution meant to help industrialized nations meet their energy needs, made waves when it recommended that no further expansion of fossil fuels be allowed if the world wants to meet climate goals.Yet, Governor Wolf has again released a “Climate Action Plan” that falls short of what science says we must do and doesn’t even attempt to address oil and gas production harms in Pennsylvania. Why doesn’t Gov Wolf prioritize cutting oil & gas pollution? It cannot be denied: Pennsylvania is the second largest producer of methane gas in the country and a major contributor of climate pollution.The oil and gas industry is a key contributor to Pennsylvania’s greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, and one of the reasons the state ranks among the top GHG contributors in the country. Yet Wolf’s plan does little to hold the industry accountable.The 2021 Climate Action Plan does not attempt to curb oil and natural gas production emissions beyond reducing fugitive methane emissions through improved leak detection and repair programs. It does not even pretend to address the continued expansion of natural gas development and production in Pennsylvania. The result is that easy wins for our climate have been left on the table. There are tens of thousands of these wells across the state, and they are undoubtedly contributing to the climate crisis — yet their emissions go unchecked. Advocates in Pennsylvania have long argued for the need to address this gaping loophole in Pennsylvania’s oil and gas rules. If basic requirements to address leaking methane are off the table, how can the Wolf administration truly say it is taking action in response to the climate crisis? Likewise, Pennsylvania’s GHG emissions data relies on DEP data that undercounts oil and gas emissions. Many emission sources are not even tracked (for example, Pennsylvania’s hundreds of thousands of orphan and abandoned wells). Starting with this flawed data as a baseline, the Wolf administration’s goal is to reduce GHG emissions by 80% from 2005 to 2050. This goal flies in the face of IPCC recommendations. Accurately tracking oil and gas emissions – and incorporating IPCC recommendations – are critical first steps for any climate action plan.
Company says planned natural gas pipeline from northeastern Pa. to New Jersey won’t go forward - Construction of a nearly 120-mile-long proposed natural gas pipeline from northeastern Pennsylvania to central New Jersey will not go forward, the group behind the project said Monday. PennEast Pipeline Company, which won a recent legal battle against New Jersey at the Supreme Court, nonetheless said the state has failed to provide certain permits and is putting the project on ice. “PennEast partners, following extensive evaluation and discussion, recently determined further development of the Project no longer is supported. Accordingly, PennEast has ceased all further development of the Project,” spokesperson Pat Kornick said in an email. The decision is the latest swing in a long-running effort to extract natural gas from the Marcellus Shale region of Pennsylvania. It’s also a major win for environmental groups who opposed the project, arguing it would cut a scar across the landscape, threaten wildlife and contribute the use of fossil fuels. New Jersey Democratic Gov. Phil Murphy, facing reelection this year, said Monday he was gratified that the project wasn’t going forward. He’s long opposed the project. “This one was bad. It would have wrecked our state and as long as I’m here that’s not gonna happen,” Mr. Murphy said. Pipeline opponents held a remote video conference to take a victory lap of sorts. The pipeline company’s decision was emotional for some. “It’s relief,” said Terese Buchanan, a resident along the proposed route and long-time opponent. Jacqueline Evans, whose property in Hunterdon County, New Jersey, stands along the proposed pathway, described a draining process of opposing the pipeline. She said she found surveyors on her land without permission and watched as her children struggled with worry over what would happen to wildlife and the land. “All of a sudden a place that is supposed to feel safe to you feels threatened,” she said. “The stress has been unbelievable,” she said. It’s unclear whether PennEast will pursue the project again if circumstances change. Groups backing the project lamented its apparent demise, saying it would have provided affordable energy to residents. “If we cannot get that gas to where it is needed because of regulatory and legal challenges by those who are content to impose higher energy bills on working families, we are effectively abandoning this strategic American asset,” said Amy Andryszak, president and chief executive officer of the Interstate Natural Gas Association of America, which backed the pipeline.
PennEast cancels pipeline project; cites lack of permits from N.J. - In an astounding turnaround after years of battling New Jersey over permits to build a natural gas pipeline from Northeast Pennsylvania to Mercer County, PennEast has canceled its 116-mile project. The move comes just three months after the U.S. Supreme Court sided with PennEast over the state of New Jersey, which had attempted to block the pipeline company from seizing state-controlled land for the project. The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, or FERC, had granted the company eminent domain to seize land from uncooperative landowners, including the state of New Jersey. PennEast spokeswoman Pat Kornick issued a statement Monday morning, citing the continued lack of support from the Garden State in acquiring environmental permits. “Although PennEast received a Certificate of Public Convenience and Necessity from FERC to construct the proposed pipeline and obtained some required permits, PennEast has not received certain permits, including a water quality certification and other wetlands permits under Section 401 of the Clean Water Act for the New Jersey portion of the Project; therefore, the PennEast partners, following extensive evaluation and discussion, recently determined further development of the Project no longer is supported,” the statement read. “Accordingly, PennEast has ceased all further development of the Project.” The pipeline would have shipped Marcellus Shale gas from Luzerne County across the Delaware River to Mercer County to provide what the company said was much-needed, affordable natural gas to residents. Opponents said it would harm acres of forest, wetlands, and waterways; pose a danger from potential explosions; and represented an outmoded fossil fuel infrastructure project at a time when climate change was increasingly tied to extreme weather events.The pipeline would have crossed dozens of waterways and wetlands, as well as the main stem of the Delaware River. The line would have also connected with Adelphia Gateway and Columbia Gas transmission pipelines in Northampton County. New Jersey had withheld from the project the necessary permits to cross waterways. The state says it spent about $1 billion to acquire and control the parcels for open space and to preserve the land for recreation, conservation, and agriculture, and that it should not be used to ship natural gas. Acting Attorney General Andrew Bruck called the decision a “tremendous victory” for New Jersey.
PennEast becomes the latest to scuttle a natural gas pipeline project - PennEast Pipeline said on Monday it would stop developing a proposed pipeline from Pennsylvania to New Jersey, the latest in a series of natural gas lines to run aground due to legal and regulatory challenges. The project was one of several proposed in recent years to draw gas from the fast-growing Appalachian region, only to run into local or environmental opposition to more fossil-fuel infrastructure. Gas prices have surged worldwide due to rising demand and lack of supply. In the United States, there is plenty of product available for heating and power generation. But with the cancellation of PennEast and other pipelines, the industry is becoming more concerned that additional production from the Marcellus/Utica shale in Pennsylvania, Ohio and West Virginia will become trapped in the basin. Much of the growth in U.S. gas production over the past decade that turned the country from a gas importer into one of the world’s biggest exporters has come from the Appalachian region. The United States exports about 10% of the gas it produces as liquefied natural gas (LNG). “The Marcellus/Utica was the growth engine of natural gas production for many years and that has slowed considerably the past two years,” PennEast was canceled, the company said, because it had not yet received all of its required permits, including a water quality certification in New Jersey. It was one of the last major pipeline projects in the works set to pull gas from the Marcellus/Utica formation, the biggest U.S. gas shale basin. “The PennEast partners, following extensive evaluation and discussion, recently determined further development of the project no longer is supported,” PennEast said in an email, noting it “has ceased all further development of the project.” U.S. natural gas prices are at a seven-year high, boosted by overseas demand for U.S. LNG exports. In other markets, gas prices are trading at record levels due to low storage in Europe and insatiable demand in Asia. [NGA/] Other East Coast gas pipes held up by regulators and legal battles include Williams Cos Inc’s Northeast Supply Enhancement from Pennsylvania to New Jersey and New York, and Dominion Energy Inc’s Atlantic Coast from West Virginia to Virginia and North Carolina. The latter was canceled in 2020. PennEast decided to stop development even though the U.S. Supreme Court in June ruled in its favor in a lawsuit allowing the line to seize state-owned or controlled land in New Jersey. As recently as August, PennEast said it still hoped to finish the first phase of the $1.2 billion pipe in Pennsylvania in 2022. The 120-mile (193-km) pipe was designed to deliver 1.1 billion cubic feet per day of gas from the Marcellus shale to customers in Pennsylvania and New Jersey. One billion cubic feet is enough gas for about five million U.S. homes for a day.
Cancer-causing wastes still exist along the Texas Eastern pipeline 30 years after settlement - It’s been more than 30 years since the public first learned that the former Texas Eastern Transmission Corp. buried industrial fluids containing the carcinogen polychlorinated biphenyls, or PCBs, in pits along the natural gas line, including in Shermans Dale.The sites could represent thousands of tons of contaminated soil. The PCBs still have not been fully cleaned up and there isn’t an estimate for when that will be completed.“We have undertaken PCB remediation efforts at (the Shermans Dale) facility in accordance with applicable regulations and are committed to continuing efforts supporting the health and safety of the communities in which we live and work,” said Max Bergeron, a regional spokesperson for Enbridge, the Calgary-based owner of the Texas Eastern gas pipeline. This was the initial response in June to questions from the newspaper.According to the state Department of Environmental Protection (DEP), Enbridge is supposed to conduct PCB cleanups as it makes updates to its facilities, such as the work that was done over the past couple years at the Shermans Dale compressor station in Carroll Twp. Companies that owned the Texas Eastern pipeline in the past were supposed to do the same but did not completely remove all the PCB-contaminated soil.“Previously, PCB impacted soil was removed from other areas of the facility,” said John Repetz, a DEP spokesman, about Shermans Dale. “Some impacted soil remained because the facility is an active pump station and the soil could not be accessed at that time.” For example, soil underneath pipes, buildings or compressors was inaccessible, the DEP and company said. All total, 19 Texas Eastern sites across Pennsylvania still have confirmed PCB waste sites, according to DEP. Ten of the sites are in the south-central region including the Perulack site in Juniata County, Shermans Dale in Perry, and Grantville in Dauphin County.
New Hampshire gas law handcuffs local government on climate-friendly construction - New Hampshire is the latest state to adopt a law that prohibits any type of restriction on new natural gas hookups, a fossil fuel industry-driven legislative effort that now extends across 20 states. The law (SB 86) is unlikely to have any immediate impact in New Hampshire, as no towns were actually considering such restrictions. But environmental groups predict that, over time, these laws will make it harder and more expensive for states and cities across the country to meet their climate targets, while also helping to lock in new emissions for decades.“These laws make it impossible for cities and towns to do one of the cheapest and easiest actions that they could do to fight climate change — cut carbon out of new buildings,” said Alejandra Mejia Cunningham, a building decarbonization advocate for the Natural Resources Defense Council. “They’re sending towns back to the drawing table and forcing them into other options that are more expensive and won’t really get them to their 2050 climate goals.”A dire alert from the United Nations last month warned that the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report shows the world needs to phase out fossil fuels immediately to avert catastrophic climate change. That includes natural gas, which emits fewer carbon emissions than coal when burned but enough tothreaten Paris agreement targets with continued use.But pro-gas groups are pushing back on electrification efforts, framing the issue as a matter of consumer choice. In New Hampshire, after Republican Gov. Chris Sununu signed the ban prohibition into law late last month, he immediately drew praise from the Consumer Energy Alliance, an advocacy group whose members include the American Gas Association and the American Public Gas Association. “This bill protects our consumers, families, seniors and businesses from irresponsible prohibitions on the use of reliable, safe and clean fuels like natural gas in homes or communities,” the alliance said in a press release. The law prohibits all counties, cities, towns, village districts and local land use boards from adopting any rule that prohibits or restricts anyone from “installing a safe and commercially available heating or other energy system of their choice.”
TGP, Southwestern Aiming to Deliver Certified Appalachian Natural Gas to Northeast Markets -Tennessee Gas Pipeline (TGP) and Southwestern Energy Co. have clinched an agreement to move certified natural gas supply to the Northeast beginning in November.Kinder Morgan Inc. subsidiary TGP, through its existing system, would transport Southwestern’s Appalachia supply that is certified as responsibly sourced gas (RSG). Certified gas is produced and transported by companies whose operations are independently verified as meeting certain environmental, social and governance (ESG) standards, including the reduction of methane emissions.The agreement is “focused on providing this lower-carbon fuel to the northeastern United States,” said Kinder’s Tom Martin, president of Natural Gas Pipelines. “This is one of several RSG initiatives currently underway at Kinder Morgan and aligns with our commitment to minimize methane emissions associated with the production, transportation, storage and distribution of natural gas.”TGP, an 11,760-mile system, transports gas from the Northeast to end-use demand markets including New York City and Boston. It also moves supply to the Gulf Coast and into Mexico. In June, Kinder expanded its Northeast gas deliveries by snapping up Stagecoach Gas Services LLC, which also moves Appalachian gas to the Northeast. Southwestern, meanwhile, in June became the first U.S. exploration and production company to announce that it would certify that all of its Appalachian gas is responsibly produced. The independent produces around 3 Bcf/d across more than 789,000 net acres in Ohio, Pennsylvania and West Virginia. “Southwestern believes responsibly sourced gas is foundational to a low carbon future,” said CEO Bill Way. “This innovative agreement with Kinder Morgan to deliver responsibly sourced energy to customers in the Northeast is evidence of our commitment to help bring about that future.”
At DEQ public hearings, opponents decry pipeline and supporters say it’s vital to economic growth - As they have many times before, opponents of building a natural gas pipeline through Southwest Virginia decried its heavy environmental footprint. And once again, supporters said the Mountain Valley Pipeline is vital to economic growth. Their comments were made Monday and Tuesday night during public hearings held by the Department of Environmental Quality and the State Water Control Board, which are considering a stream-crossing permit for the deeply divisive project. Although much of the 303-mile pipeline is nearing completion, Mountain Valley has encountered repeated regulatory and legal challenges over how the buried pipe will cross nearly 1,000 streams and wetlands in its path. Before the project can be finished, the water board must issue a water quality certification, which would then be followed by a final approval from the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers. The board is expected to make a decision in December. Of the 53 people who spoke Monday night in Rocky Mount, 35 were in favor of finishing the long-delayed project. The first 20 speakers at Tuesday’s hearing at Radford University, which continued past press time, were evenly split on the issue. Del. Charles Poindexter, R-Rocky Mount, said a current lack of natural gas has long been a stumbling block in attracting new industries to Franklin County. “I can’t overstate the importance of the pipeline’s completion for the county’s economic success,” he said. By tapping the pipeline as it runs though the Summit View Business Park, Roanoke Gas Co. would be able to meet demand in Franklin County, it says. Paul Schneider, director of energy planning and procurement for Roanoke Gas, said the company has added about 2,500 customers since 2015 and expects 600 more over the next year. Two existing pipelines that currently supply natural gas have no more capacity, the company says. “Roanoke Gas needed MVP in 2015 and we need it even more today,” Schneider said. Opponents point to the pipeline’s troubled environmental record since work began in 2018. State regulators have cited Mountain Valley with more than 300 violations of erosion and sediment control regulations. When it rains heavily, muddy water often flows off construction sites and into streams. “Commerce is not your job,” Joshua Vana of ARTivism, a group that coordinates resistance between artists and environmental justice activists, told the water board. “Your job is to represent citizens and protect water quality.” Many say it is not too late to stop the pipeline. “This is not a done deal,” Del. Chris Hurst, D-Blacksburg, said Tuesday in urging the board not to allow the bureaucratic momentum Mountain Valley has gained with other permits to influence its decision.
Mountain Valley Pipeline water permit arguments tread familiar ground - For three hours Tuesday night, a crowd of Southwest Virginia residents, pipeline workers and environmental activists batted back and forth the same arguments the State Water Control Board has been hearing for the past four years as the Mountain Valley Pipeline project has ground forward, stalled, ground forward again and stalled again. “We keep treading water and saying the same things over and over again,” said pipeline supporter Oludare Ogunde, a nonprofit founder and organizer for the Laborers’ International Union of North America in Richmond. “If I were on the board, I’d be getting pretty tired of this,” said nonprofit director and pipeline opponent Joshua Vana of Albemarle later in the evening. “I would have been tired of this probably the first time around back in 2017.” The hearing in Radford, which followed a Monday night session in Rocky Mount, was convened to gather public comment on Mountain Valley’s most recent attempt to obtain a key state water permit to complete the 303-mile pipeline intended to carry natural gas from West Virginia into Virginia. Under the federal Clean Water Act, projects like pipelines that discharge pollutants, including sediment, into waters of the United States must obtain federal and state permits that guarantee the project will not significantly degrade water quality. Mountain Valley initially received that approval in the form of the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers’ Nationwide Permit 12, a general permit that authorized all of the pipeline’s stream crossings, as well as through a certification from Virginia’s State Water Control Board issued in December 2017. In 2018, however, Mountain Valley lost the federal stream-crossing approval and the entire Nationwide 12 permit program came under legal challenge. This January, the developers changed direction, deciding to instead seek a new Army Corps approval and a Virginia Water Protection Permit — a course it described as “the most efficient and effective path to project completion” in filings with the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission. The federal permit hit a snag this July when the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency assessed a draft version andrecommended that the Army Corps not issue it due to “a number of substantial concerns.”
Graf: Public good does not equate to destruction of the Earth and First Amendment - Mountain Valley Pipeline has decided to go after its critics in using the legal system to find out who anonymous activists are who have fought the pipeline through social media and out in the trenches. The pipeline company acquired the right to take land from private property owners through a process called eminent domain, which essentially means that the government owns all the land and if they want to use “your property” for public good, they get to take it. This concept goes back to the days of the king of England who owned everything and allowed the use of his property to his various buddies, the lords of the land. The king has been replaced by the federal government, which can seize land if the intended use of the space serves a greater public purpose than its current use. The Supreme Court has defined public use consistent with economic gain, even the economic gain of the private party who gets to use the seized land. Under eminent domain, once the king, now the federal government, gives the use of the land to the new lords, e.g. the mega-corporations. MVP’s alleged public purpose in using eminent domain to seize multiple parcels of private property in Virginia is based on its claim that pipeline gas will benefit the public. But that claim is debatable given that to this day there isn’t even a market for the gas the pipeline will carry. We are doing just fine without any additional fossil fuel use. And the destruction of Virginia’s hills, valleys and waters that the pipeline construction has rendered is appalling. All of this for the end of result of increasing the public’s dependence upon fossil fuels which only the criminally naive believe have no connection to the extreme climate changes from hurricanes to wildfires that we see every day on both sides of the country. Thus the public good and public purpose of the pipeline is beyond debatable. It is an atrocity that is geared to destroy our climate, life on the planet and the ability to function as a civilization. All of this is driven by greed masking itself as public good Now this greed machine of mass destruction has decided to punish its critics by using the legal system in an attempt to search and destroy those critics. The classic definition of fascism is when large corporations or big money work in conjunction with a central government to control, silence and stifle criticism. A classic example of big corporations using their power to silence critics is the SLAPP suit: Strategic Lawsuit Against Public Participation. In the past, mega companies have sued individuals who have criticized them using mostly frivolous lawsuits to intimidate their critics. Many states have passed laws that prevent these suits from happening giving those who oppose mega-greed legal tools to defend themselves.
3 takeaways from yesterday's FERC hearing - Federal Energy Regulatory Commission Chair Richard Glick defended the need for tighter scrutiny of natural gas projects yesterday during his first appearance before the Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee since taking the helm at the agency in January.Lawmakers questioned all four sitting FERC members — two Democrats and two Republicans — in an oversight hearing that touched on issues including environmental reviews and House Democrats’ sweeping clean electricity plan. It also showcased political divisions at FERC, which oversees the bulk power system and large natural gas pipelines, among other energy projects.“FERC’s regulatory actions have a significant impact on the lives of millions of people,” Glick, a Democrat, told lawmakers in his opening remarks. “As a result, it is important that our decisionmaking processes include robust input from diverse perspectives.”Glick has pushed for updating FERC’s approach to reviewing gas pipelines, including accounting for proposals’ greenhouse gas emissions.Republican Commissioner James Danly raised concerns with several recent FERC orders that he said go against agency precedent.“I am concerned that a number of recent commission actions have created such profound uncertainty throughout the natural gas pipeline industry that it is becoming increasingly difficult for the companies that build and operate natural gas pipelines to secure financing or rationally allocate capital,” Danly told lawmakers in his opening remarks.Danly and his fellow Republican Commissioner Mark Christie also sounded alarm about how the Clean Electricity Performance Program under consideration in the House could affect grid reliability and electricity bills (Energywire, Sept. 28). Proponents of the plan, including President Biden, say it would create clean energy jobs and reduce the country’s greenhouse gas emissions by incentivizing utilities to add more renewable resources.Biden has nominated Willie Phillips, Democratic chair of the Public Service Commission of the District of Columbia, to join the agency as its fifth commissioner. If confirmed by the Senate, Phillips would shift the political balance of power at FERC, which has been under Republican control or in a partisan split for the past four years.“We hope we can get you another nominee as quickly as possible,” Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.), chair of the ENR Committee, said yesterday. Here are three takeaways from the hearing:
CenterPoint Energy Plans $1.2B Infrastructure Improvements - CenterPoint Energy, Inc.’s Indiana-based natural gas business, CenterPoint Energy Indiana North, has filed a request with the Indiana Utility Regulatory Commission (IURC) to continue its natural gas infrastructure improvements during the next five years to comply with federal pipeline safety rules and to ensure the company’s 625,000 natural gas customers in north central, central and southeastern Indiana continue to receive safe, reliable gas service for decades to come.Previous policy set by the Indiana Legislature allows utilities to recover federal-mandated costs as well as submit their forward-looking capital investment plans to the IURC for consideration. In 2013, the company filed an initial seven-year gas system modernization plan with the IURC to recover planned capital expenditures through 2020. The natural gas system improvements are a continuation of efforts over the last seven years to upgrade and maintain portions of CenterPoint Energy’s 13,000-mile network of distribution mains and transmission pipelines through its pipeline replacement and transmission line integrity management programs. The work will primarily consist of replacing 341 miles of bare steel and cast-iron distribution mains with new mains, most of which will be plastic, as well as inspecting and upgrading transmission pipelines. Together, these efforts will call for an estimated $1.2 billion in investments.
Cheniere Cleared to Introduce Feed Gas at Sabine Pass Expansion - Cheniere Energy Inc. has received permission from federal regulators to introduce feed gas to the sixth train at its Sabine Pass liquefied natural gas (LNG) terminal in Louisiana, raising the likelihood that U.S. exports will increase further by year’s end. The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission granted Cheniere’s Sept. 15 request to introduce feed gas for commissioning of the 5 million metric tons/year (mmty) expansion. Cheniere, the largest exporter of U.S. liquefied natural gas, said last month that the train was 90% complete and expected to enter commercial service next year. Chief Commercial Officer Anatol Feygin told news media at the Gastech conference in Dubai on Tuesday there’s a strong likelihood that Train 6 could begin producing LNG by the end of the year. Venture Global Inc.’s Tom Earl, chief commercial officer, also reportedly said at Gastech that the 10 mmty Calcasieu Pass LNG export terminal in Louisiana was also nearly complete and could start production in the coming months. Venture Global issued a tender earlier this year to supply 12 cargoes from Calcasieu Pass as soon as October in an indication that the terminal could start exporting commissioning cargoes by the end of the year. The TransCameron pipeline that would feed Calcasieu Pass has also been cleared by federal regulators to enter service. It is already receiving limited amounts of gas as Calcasieu Pass nears commissioning. EBW Analytics Group said Friday that LNG feed gas demand could soon top 12.5 Bcf/d as Train 6 ramps up and flows at Sabine Pass, Freeport and Cameron LNG continue to increase following Tropical Storm Nicholas last week. Feed gas demand could hit 14 Bcf/d by the end of the year if Calcasieu starts up, EBW said, surpassing the record of roughly 11 Bcf/d, and accounting for well above 10% of all U.S. natural gas demand.
Natural Gas Futures Top $6 Mark Early as Contract Expiration Seen Driving Volatility -- Continued volatility attributed to front-month expiration saw natural gas futures rocket over the $6/MMBtu mark in early trading Tuesday. Coming off a 56.6-cent gain in the previous session, the October Nymex contract was up an additional 30.4 cents to $6.010 at around 8:45 a.m. ET. After a massive move higher Monday coinciding with options expiration, and with the final settlement of the October contract Tuesday, analysts at EBW Analytics Group cautioned that “further sizable moves are possible, particularly later in the day.” The “proximate cause” for the recent rally is end-of-month positioning, the analysts said, but the prospect of additional liquefied natural gas demand amid “rumors that Sabine Pass Train 6 was firing up yesterday likely added more fuel to the amped-up rally.” A pullback in prices “appears increasingly possible” as November transitions to the front month, according to the EBW analysts. “From a fundamental perspective, Nymex natural gas futures are approaching our probability-weighted scenario analysis fair value of $6.00-6.50,” the analysts said. “The high volatility roller coaster, however, is likely to continue. If Sabine Pass feed gas demand ramps up to new highs — signaling Train 6 starting up — or the forecast for the back half of October trends colder, natural gas could rapidly take another leg higher.” Trends in the weather data overnight resulted in only slight changes to the outlook, with the major models still advertising a bearish pattern for the United States overall through mid-October, according to NatGasWeather. “We continue to look to the last 10 days of October for the first real threat of widespread freezing temperatures across the northern U.S.,” the firm said. NatGasWeather pointed to tightness in overseas markets in Europe and Asia as a driver of the spiking prices domestically. “Now that bulls have emphatically regained control and pushed prices to highs of the past decade, we look to see if prices hold $6,” the firm said. “We expect how high U.S. prices go will be dictated by whether Europe prices continue to rise, which is possible due to the potential for moderate to major issues there this winter.” Meanwhile, Wood Mackenzie’s daily pipe production estimates showed a roughly 1.6 Bcf/d day/day decline in Lower 48 output as of early Tuesday, down to around 91 Bcf/d from 92.7 Bcf/d on Monday. Wood Mackenzie analyst Laura Munder said declines were observed in the Haynesville Shale (about 340 MMcf/d), Texas (about 585 MMcf/d) and the Northeast (about 620 MMcf/d). November Nymex crude oil futures were up 63 cents to $76.08/bbl at around 8:45 a.m. ET.
U.S. natgas jumps 11% to 7-year high on soaring global gas prices - (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures soared 11% to a seven-year high on Monday as record global gas prices kept demand for U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports strong. "Spectacular prices around the world are feeding into the sentiment here," "gas as a commodity is getting repriced" and "now that we've hit these price heights, it will be easy to do it again." On its second to last day as the front-month, gas futures for October delivery rose 56.6 cents, or 11.0%, to settle at $5.706 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), their highest close since February 2014. That was also the contract's biggest daily percentage increase since the February freeze in Texas left millions without power and heat for days. November futures, which will soon be the front-month, were up 58 cents to $5.78 per mmBtu. With U.S. gas prices now at seven-year highs, traders noted some speculators cut their long positions too early. Last week, U.S. speculators cut their net long positions on the New York Mercantile and Intercontinental Exchanges for a second week in row to their lowest since May in anticipation U.S. prices could drop later this week if U.S. utilities keep adding more gas to storage than usual, With gas prices at or near record highs of around $26 per mmBtu in Europe and $28 in Asia versus just around $6 in the United States, traders said buyers around the world would keep purchasing all the LNG the United States could produce. The United States exports about 10% of the gas it produces as LNG. Despite reductions at several U.S. LNG export plants this month, the amount of gas flowing to the plants slipped modestly to an average of 10.4 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in September from 10.5 bcfd in August, according to data provider Refinitiv. That small LNG feedgas decline came amid a three-week maintenance outage at Berkshire Hathaway Energy's Cove Point facility in Maryland, a brief shutdown at Freeport LNG's plant in Texas during Tropical Storm Nicholas and a brief reduction last week at Cameron LNG's plant in Louisiana. But, no matter how high global prices rise, the United States only has the capacity to turn about 10.5 bcfd of gas into LNG. Global markets will likely have to wait until later this year to get more from the United States when the sixth liquefaction train at Cheniere Energy Inc's Sabine Pass and Venture Global LNG's Calcasieu Pass in Louisiana start producing LNG in test mode.
Cash Prices, Natural Gas Futures Soar Again, Extend Rally - Following a 56.6-cent gain to start the week, the October Nymex contract on Tuesday rose another 13.5 cents day/day and settled at $5.841/MMBtu before rolling off the board. November, which takes over as the prompt month on Wednesday, gained 14.9 cents to $5.880. NGI’s Spot Gas National Avg. spiked 32.0 cents to $5.415 on Tuesday. A day earlier, cash prices soared 50.0 cents. NatGasWeather said Tuesday the major forecasting models still advertised a bearish pattern for the United States overall through mid-October – typical for this time of year. “We continue to look to the last 10 days of October for the first real threat of widespread freezing temperatures across the northern U.S.,” the firm said. That noted, NatGasWeather pointed to supply/demand tightness in Europe and Asia – as well as customary buying ahead of expiry — as a key driver of soaring domestic prices. “We expect how high U.S. prices go will be dictated by whether Europe prices continue to rise, which is possible due to the potential for moderate to major issues there this winter,” the firm said. Utilities in Europe and parts of Asia have for much of 2021 warned of lean supplies ahead of winter, when heating needs emerge in full force and gas demand typically spikes. This has fueled steady and elevated calls for U.S. exports of liquefied natural gas (LNG) levels, supporting prices. As winter draws closer, overseas energy challenges are fueling prices surges globally. U.S. LNG feed gas volumes have held near record levels around 11 Bcf most of this year, interrupted only by storms and maintenance work. The energy crunch abroad began with robust draws from storage during large stretches of freezing conditions in Europe and northern Asia last winter. This was followed by a hot summer, unplanned supply disruptions and a pullback in production amid coronavirus outbreaks. Combined, Rystad Energy analysts say, these factors could threaten economic recoveries from the depths of the pandemic if consumers and businesses cannot afford gas to power homes and businesses. In years past, power companies and industrial users would switch from gas to coal, but coal supplies are waning as countries around the world transition to cleaner forms of energy. The Rystad team expects more gas-to-oil switching, though oil prices also are surging amid rising demand and output that remains light relative to pre-pandemic levels. This, the analysts said, is raising concern about a broader energy crisis. Brent crude, the international benchmark, is up more than 50% this year and has briefly topped $80/bbl this week. A big chunk of that increase developed this month alone.
Natural gas drops 7%, sharpest decline since January following big run-up on supply concerns - Natural gas futures dipped as much as 8% on Wednesday, pulling back from a more than seven-year high above $6 per million British thermal units hit during the prior session. The contract for November delivery fell to a low of $5.42 on Wednesday, before recovering some of those losses to settle 6.85% lower at $5.47 in the worst daily performance since January. Natural gas prices have shot up this month amid an energy crunch in Europe that's sent power prices to all-time highs. Natural gas futures are up 26% for September, and prices have more than doubled since the beginning of the year. Despite Wednesday's downturn, some believe it's a temporary halt in an otherwise upward trajectory. "Natural gas fundamentals all point to higher prices: robust Chinese demand, shut-in offshore US production, and low supplies from Russia," strategists at Oanda said. "The natural gas market has a supply problem and it doesn't look like that will change anytime soon."
Natgas Drops 7% On Warmer Forecasts, Largest One-Day Decline Since January - U.S. natural gas futures plunged more than 7% Wednesday from a seven-year-high on warmer weather forecasts for the next few weeks, which indicates lower demand for powerplant and heating fuel, according to Bloomberg. Above-normal temperatures for the East Coast while below-normal temperatures for the West Coast are expected to last through Oct. 13. Shown below is the U.S. Lower 48 mean temperature positively diverging from the 30-year norm. "October is supposed to be warmer than normal. If that's the case, natgas is going to find some stability," said Phil Flynn, senior market analyst, Price Futures Group. Heating degree days (HDD), the measure of demand for energy needed to heat a building when the average temperature is below 65F, began to slightly increase from 1 HDD to nearly 3 HDD from Sept. 15-30 but has since negatively diverged the 30-year trend and estimated to do so through Oct. 13. Natgas futures have been on a tear, reaching seven-year highs above the $6 handle on shortage fears in Europe. Futures have plunged almost 12.5% in the last two trading sessions, with today's 7% drop the largest daily slump since Jan. 19. The largest decline since Jan. 19. BloombergNEF estimates that "even mild weather in coming months" will keep U.S. stockpiles below historical averages because of increasing demand and will put a bid under prices. "There's a 64% chance that inventories will finish below the five-year average level at the end of winter 2021-22," BNEF noted in its latest U.S. Gas Monthly report.
US natural gas storage fields post largest weekly injection since June: EIA | S&P Global Platts --US working gas inventories added the largest weekly injection since early June with greater builds possible in the weeks ahead, but it appears to be too little, too late to alleviate winter supply concerns as prices strengthen. Register Now Storage fields injected 88 Bcf for the week ended Sept. 24, the US Energy Information Administration reported Sept. 30. It proved just above the 87 Bcf build expected by a survey of analysts by S&P Global Platts. The build was more than the five-year average of 72 Bcf and last year's 74 Bcf injection in the corresponding week as working gas inventories increased to 3.170 Tcf. US storage volumes now stand 575 Bcf, or 15.4%, less than the year-ago level of 3.745 Tcf and 213 Bcf, or 6.3%, less than the five-year average of 3.383 Tcf. The injection proved more than the 76 Bcf build reported the week prior and ranked as the fourth largest weekly injection of the season according to EIA data. The NYMEX Henry Hub November contract, now the prompt month, jumped 32 cents to $5.80/MMBtu in trading following the release of the EIA's storage report. The remaining winter strip, December through March, added 31 cents to $5.81/MMBtu. The 2022 summer strip tacked on 7 cents to $3.87. Even with a relatively mild weather forecast for the next 14 days in the US, the concerns around supply being able to meet both domestic heating demand as well as elevated export demand this winter are continuing to pressure Henry Hub prices to the upside. Driving the upward movement is a combination of factors including rebounding LNG feedgas demand, lagging production, the ongoing storage deficit and the lingering risk around winter reliability, according to S&P Global Platts Analytics. Also contributing to the rally are skyrocketing energy prices in Europe and Asia. Even with well over $5/MMBtu prices domestically, they sit at a significant discount to the plus $25/MMBtu prices for JKM and TTF. The comparatively cheap gas in the US places LNG export cargoes in very high demand this winter and is forecast to keep US LNG export facilities fully utilized at 12.2 Bcf/d, according to Platts Analytics Platts Analytics supply and demand model currently forecasts a 92 Bcf build for the week ending Oct. 1. This would measure 11 Bcf more than the five-year average. The week after points to an 89 Bcf injection, shaving 10 Bcf off the storage deficit. Based on historical averages, US fields should post net injections through the week ending Nov. 5 as stocks peak entering the heating season.
U.S. natgas futures jump to 7-year high on Europe supply fears --U.S. natural gas futures jumped over 7% to a fresh seven-year high as worries that Europe will not have enough gas in storage for the winter heating season boosted global prices to record levels and kept demand for U.S. liquefied natural gas exports strong. U.S. prices rose despite weeks of mild weather in the United States that has allowed utilities to inject more gas into stockpiles than usual for this time of year. The U.S. Energy Information Administration said utilities added a bigger-than-usual 88 billion cubic feet of gas into storage during the week ended Sept. 24. That was a little over the 87-bcf build analysts forecast in a Reuters poll and compares with an increase of 74 bcf in the same week last year and a five-year (2016-2020) average increase of 72 bcf. [EIA/GAS] Last week’s injection boosted stockpiles to 3.170 trillion cubic feet, or 6.3% below the five-year average of 3.383 tcf for this time of year. Looking ahead, analysts expect U.S. inventories to reach about 3.5 tcf at the start of the winter heating season in November, which they said would be a comfortable level even though it falls short of the 3.7 tcf five-year average for that time of year. That is nowhere near as dire as in Europe where analysts say gas storage is over 20% below normal in some countries. “The contrast between short-term ample U.S. balances and long-term bullish supply/usage elsewhere around the globe … is creating much of the recent extreme volatility,” said Jim Ritterbusch, president of Ritterbusch and Associates in Galena, Illinois. Front-month gas futures for November delivery rose 39.0 cents, or 7.1%, to settle at $5.867 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), their highest close since February 2014. Earlier this week, gas prices closed up 11% to their highest since February 2014 on Monday and dropped 6% on Wednesday. Traders said price swings were amplified by speculative trading around the expiration of the October future on Tuesday. For the month, the front-month was up about 34%, its highest since August 2020. That puts the contract on track to rise for a sixth month in a row for the first time since hitting a record seven months in June 2008. During those six months, the contract has soared 89%. With gas prices at or near record highs of around $32 per mmBtu in Europe and $30 in Asia versus just about $6 in the United States, traders said buyers around the world would keep purchasing all the LNG the United States could produce.
Bearish U.S. Backdrop Prompts Big Sell-Off for Natural Gas Futures; Cash Mixed -- In another show of extreme volatility, natural gas futures came tumbling down on Friday as U.S. traders gave more weight to bearish fundamentals on the home front rather than escalating fears of a global supply shortage this winter. The November Nymex gas futures contract capped the week at $5.619, off 24.8 cents day/day. December plunged 22.8 cents to $5.763. Spot gas prices also declined in much of the country ahead of what was expected to be a mild weekend. Led by steep decreases on the East Coast, NGI’s Spot Gas National Avg. dropped 20.0 cents to $5.050. Despite Friday’s pullback, natural gas prices have proven resilient. In the latest show of buoyancy, Nymex futures — still well above $5.00 through the winter — rallied in the face of yet more unsupportive storage data. The Energy Information Administration (EIA) on Thursday reported that inventories for the week ending Sept. 24 had risen by 88 Bcf, easily eclipsing both year-ago and five-year average injections and therefore tightening up the deficit. Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. (TPH) analysts said the EIA figure indicates that balances were around 2 Bcf/d looser week/week, primarily as a result of lower power burns. The decline in power generation demand was somewhat offset by higher residential/commercial demand, though. Despite the trend lower in power generation demand, gas’ share of the total generation and thermal generation stacks remain a theme, with coal continuing to lose share through September, according to TPH. Weekly data suggests coal production has risen in the past two weeks, “but with an enticing global market, we suspect the export picture to remain a key factor amidst a total global energy market.” Indeed, the dire supply picture overseas has been the main catalyst for U.S. gas prices in recent weeks, with no signs of slowing down. Energy Aspects expect spreads between Asian and European prices to widen even more in the coming weeks as winter arrives. The spreads have recovered in the past week, according to the firm, rising by $1.11 week/week compared to the Sept. 20 curve on average through winter. “Spreads on the curve now peak at $3.17 in December, in line with our forecast,” Energy Aspects analysts said. This strengthening relative to the Title Transfer Facility (TTF), which jumped by another $4.63 over the period, “confirms Asia’s willingness to pay for LNG imports this winter despite record-high prices, along with limited gas-to-oil switching potential overall in the region.” For all the fast and furious gains that U.S. gas prices have accumulated in recent weeks, there are still several factors that point to some additional downside ahead. The most influential one is weather, with seemingly every turn of the weather models coming in a tad bit warmer than the last. NatGasWeather said it’s likely the weather data has gotten “too bearish” and could add numerous total degree days in time. Until then, long-range models show “near-perfect temperatures over vast stretches of the U.S.” the next couple of weeks. Daytime highs in the 60s to 80s are forecast to rule most of the country besides some cooler weather in the Northwest and hotter conditions over interior California and Southwest deserts. “Looking out further, we continue to expect the first opportunity for more impressive cold shots into the U.S. won’t be until the last 10 days of October, potentially not until November if the latest longer-range weather models are to be believed,” NatGasWeather said. This sets up a string of what’s likely to be three storage injections near or over 100 Bcf, according to the firm. This would improve deficits toward 150 Bcf. “Clearly, U.S. supplies are in better shape than many were expecting just a month ago, leading to many end-of-season estimates increasing towards 3.65 Tcf.”
Front Month Nymex Natural Gas Rose 8.06% This Week to Settle at $5.6190 — Data Talk - Front Month Nymex Natural Gas for Nov. delivery gained 41.90 cents per million British thermal units, or 8.06% to $5.6190 per million British thermal units this week
- --Largest one week net and percentage gain since the week ending Aug. 27, 2021
- --Up for six consecutive weeks
- --Up $1.768 or 45.91% over the last six weeks
- --Largest six week gain since the week ending Feb. 21, 2014
- --Largest six week percentage gain since the week ending Oct. 30, 2020
- --Today it is down 24.80 cents or 4.23%
- --Down two of the past three sessions
- --Today's settlement value is the fourth highest this year
- --Off 4.23% from its 52-week high of $5.867 hit Thursday, Sept. 30, 2021
- --Up 143.77% from its 52-week low of $2.305 hit Monday, Dec. 28, 2020
- --Rose 130.48% from 52 weeks ago
- --Off 4.23% from its 2021 settlement high of $5.867 hit Thursday, Sept. 30, 2021
- --Up 129.72% from its 2021 settlement low of $2.446 hit Friday, Jan. 22, 2021
- --Off 63.46% from its record high of $15.378 hit Tuesday, Dec. 13, 2005
- --Year-to-date it is up $3.08 or 121.31%
All prices are calculated based on the settlement price of the current front month contract.
Natural Gas Makes Up Larger Share Of U.S. Oil Producers' Revenues - Thanks to higher natural gas prices, U.S. oil producers are generating a larger share of their revenues from natural gas.The share of natural gas in revenues jumped to 14 percent in the first quarter of 2021—the highest since at least 2018, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) says.Excluding the integrated majors, a total of 54 listed producers primarily engaged in crude oil production have seen their revenues from natural gas at a double-digit share of total revenues so far this year, as benchmark U.S. natural gas prices jumped during the Texas Freeze and rallied at the end of the summer on the back of record U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports and flattish overall gas production in America.As per EIA estimates, the share of natural gas in the revenues of the 54 U.S. oil producers stood at 10 percent in the second quarter of 2021.Considering the current rally in natural gas prices around the world, including in the U.S., with Henry Hub prices at over $5 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) since mid-September, revenues from gas for the U.S. oil producers are expected to remain at high levels throughout the rest of the year, the EIA said.The administration's analysis does not include the integrated oil majors or companies that produce natural gas as their primary business, so these trends cannot be considered as reflecting behavior in the industry as a whole, the EIA noted.The benchmark U.S. natural gas price has doubled over the past year, and prices have rallied despite the fact that the biggest gas-producing basin, Appalachia, saw in the first half of 2021 its highest average output since natural gas production in the Marcellus and Utica shale formations started in 2008. Overall American dry natural gas production is rising. But it's not increasing so quickly as to offset surging U.S. gas exports via pipelines and LNG cargoes, which have been setting all-time high records this year. Scorching summer heatwaves and low natural gas inventories have also driven natural gas prices higher over the past few months.
WattBridge Breaks Ground on Peak-Power Facility To Support Nearly 200,000 Homes in Brazoria County, Texas - WattBridge Energy, LLC announced that the 288-MW Mark One project—the company's fourth peak-power installation for ERCOT and the Greater Houston area in just 18 months—has started construction in Brazoria County. Anticipated to be online by November 2022, the plant will support renewable energy development and deliver reliable power during peak-demand times, including severe heat waves and winter weather. WattBridge Breaks Ground on Peak-Power Facility To Support Nearly 200,000 Homes in Brazoria County, Texas. The New 288-MW Plant Increases WattBridge Support for the ERCOT Grid and the Greater-Houston Area to 1,536 MW. The Mark One project will be powered by six LM6000 gas-turbine packages, and when completed, increases WattBridge peak-power capabilities in the Greater-Houston area to 1,536 MW with another 2,016 MW in advanced development. As one of the most prolific owner/operators of LM6000 aeroderivative engines in the world, WattBridge peak-power plants support the Houston grid during critical times, including uninterrupted power generation throughout 2021 Winter Storm Uri. "Facilities like Mark One serve as the bridge between a hydrocarbon-dominant past and a fully renewable future," saysJeff Canon, PROENERGY CEO. "In addition to serving as a critical energy resource during peak-demand events, WattBridge facilities are key enablers for wind and solar-generation growth by filling gaps in energy supply with reliable, reduced-emission power generation."
Texas regulator's plan would spare natural gas producers from costly winter prep -- After this year’s deadly winter storm, state lawmakers spent weeks hearing complaints that power outages had cut off production at natural gas facilities, a key supplier to the Texas electricity grid.So many were furious to learn Tuesday that the regulatory agency now tasked with preventing those outages, the Texas Railroad Commission, is considering a loophole for gas producers to opt out of receiving emergency power. Without electricity, they won’t have to invest in preparing their facilities to operate in freezing conditions.“I’m very disappointed,” said Sen. Robert Nichols, a Jacksonville Republican and close ally of the oil and gas industry. “It’s not that hard to come up with the rule on something that’s that critical,” he said. “’Please don’t turn my electricity off, because we’re pumping gas to the power plant.’”Remarks at a Senate committee hearing on preparations for the looming winter revealed just how little progress has been made on one of the biggest obstacles from the February blackouts, which left more than 200 dead and led to billions of dollars in property damage. Natural gas fuels most of the state’s power grid, yet when temperatures dropped, production fell and gas-fired power plants were unable to secure supply.
Report Alleges Conflicts Of Interest Among Texas Oil And Gas Regulators -Texas oil and gas regulators make big bucks from the industries they oversee and fail to recuse themselves when arbitrating conflicts or determining penalties for companies they’ve invested in, according to a new report. And it all may be perfectly legal. The report says conflicts of interest create a condition of “regulatory capture” at the Railroad Commission of Texas, the agency that regulates fossil fuel extraction and pipelines in the state. The report was written by money-in-politics watchdog group Texans For Public Justice, and Commission Shift, a group pushing for reform of the agency. The notion that Railroad commissioners are cozy with oil, gas and pipeline companies will not surprise many who closely follow commission business. Commissioners themselves, elected statewide by the Texas voters, speak openly and proudly about their close ties to industry and their desire to promote and protect it. But the details outlined in the report suggest commissioners may have financial as well as political motivations for taking the actions they take while in office. “We think it's time to get money out of decisions that are made at the state agency,” Virginia Palacios, executive director of Commission Shift, said. “Oklahoma has a pretty simple, clear-cut rule that their oil and gas commissioners can't have any interest in the businesses that they're making decisions about.” The report looks specifically at the record of Railroad Commission Chair Christi Craddick. Two further reports will review the financial holdings of the two other commissioners. Texas Railroad Commissioner Christi Craddick bows her head during a prayer at the opening of the 86th Texas Legislative Session in 2019. Among other things it found that Craddick "cast a deciding vote" in favor of a pipeline company that she owned thousands of dollars of stock in and received $22,500 in campaign contributions from the company. It also says she failed to recuse herself from ruling in a dispute between two companies despite owning shares in both. Palacios said she thinks Craddick’s failure to recuse in these instances may have broken the agency’s own rules. Andrew Wheat, a research director for Texans For Public Justice, is unsure. “The fact is that the vast majority of this — if not all of it — is legal and the reason is that we have extremely lax laws and rules in Texas governing conflicts of interests,” he said. Craddick and her office did not return a request for comment before deadline.
US oil, gas rig count jumps 9 to 640 on week; Eagle Ford shows biggest change | S&P Global Platts -- The US oil and gas rig count rose by nine to 640 in the week ending Sept. 29, Enverus said, with the biggest change in the Eagle Ford Shale of South Texas. Oil rigs were up four to 501, the highest since early April 2020, and natural gas-oriented rigs were up five to 139. The Eagle Ford gained five rigs for a total 55 for the week ended Sept. 29, also pushing the count there to the highest since early April 2020. The Eagle Ford, originally an unconventional natural gas play for horizontal drilling before oil became the top target, is a large basin with current oil production of 1.17 million b/d and natural gas production of 4.5 Bcf/d. The play has not grown much in recent years. Output did reach 1.7 million in March 2015 but fell in the wake of volatile oil prices and increasing operational shifts by upstream players to the Permian Basin of West Texas/New Mexico. But if rig counts were to remain at current levels in the next few years, S&P Global Platts Analytics estimates Eagle Ford oil production could rise slightly to 1.29 million b/d of oil, and gas output would be sizably larger at 5.5 Bcf/d by 2025. Rig counts have grown to levels not seen since very early in the pandemic, when upstream operators began dropping rigs swiftly as they slashed spending to sought to conserve capital as low oil demand caused a crude price crash. Outside the Eagle Ford, rig counts recently reached March or April 2020 levels in several plays including the Permian Basin and the SCOOP-STACK in Oklahoma. Land rigs in September surpassed the 500 mark for the Baker Hughes rig count, which uses a different counting methodology than Enverus, a level also not seen since April 2020. In other US basins for the week ended Sept. 29, the Permian rose by three rigs to 266, and the DJ Basin mostly of Colorado gained a rig, making 14. Shedding one rig each were the Haynesville Shale, leaving 52, and the Marcellus Shale, leaving 34. The SCOOP-STACK lost two rigs for a total 33. The Bakken Shale, largely in North Dakota, and the Utica Shale, mostly in Ohio, were both unchanged, leaving 27 and 10 rigs, respectively. The week ended Sept. 29 marked the close of the month and of the third quarter. The Q3 rig count was up 9% from 588 at the end of Q2 and nearly double the exit rate of 326 rigs in a pandemic-hit Q3 2020. Horizontal activity, essentially a proxy for shale activity, closed out Q3 averaging 472 rigs, up about 9% from Q2 2021 and about double that of the 235-horizontal rig average in domestic fields during Q3 2020. The 9% quarter-on-quarter increase in Q3 compares to 13% horizontal count growth in Q2, which averaged 432 rigs, and 27% in Q1, which averaged 381 rigs. Platts Analytics said it expects rig counts to continue ticking up through 2022.
Record operating costs are slowing the U.S. shale drilling revival -America’s oil producers are boosting output at a slower place as record costs hammer the shale patch, according to a survey of industry executives. Out of 47 responding companies that supply producers with everything from software to workers, just one reported lower input costs in the third quarter, according to a report released Wednesday by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. Hiring has become a big headache for oilfield service companies trying to meet increased demand from explorers. Of those reporting difficulties in attracting workers, 70% blamed it on a lack of qualified applicants. Wages are up 20%, and companies are poaching employees from competitors, according to an unidentified survey respondent. “Labor is causing major problems,” the person said. “We are finding it difficult to increase prices to match our increase in costs.” The outlook comes as a global energy crunch sends prices for oil, natural gas and power soaring, roiling everything from manufacturing to food production. U.S. drillers are keeping output in check as they respond to investor pressure to pay down debt and return cash to shareholders, adding to the inflationary pressure. Of all the labor shortages that are wreaking havoc on the U.S. economy -- from cashiers to chefs -- few are as thorny or potentially as permanent as the one that has a grip on the oil sector. Thousands of roughnecks and engineers are wary of returning to jobs like the ones they lost when the pandemic sent the price of crude oil crashing last year. Meanwhile, supply-chain snarls mean it’s “taking longer for companies to receive inputs,” the Dallas Fed said. The index for supplier delivery time rose to the highest since the survey’s inception in 2016. For most of this year, oilfield service companies have mostly been able to pass along input costs to their clients in the form of higher service prices, but that’s also generally kept them from booking extra profits, Citigroup Inc. has said. Inflation could reach 12% or more by the end of this year for the sector in North America, analysts including Scott Gruber wrote in a June investor note. One respondent to the Dallas Fed survey pinned the blame for inflation on closely held shale explorers that aren’t beholden to investor demands for discipline. Private producers are running the most drilling rigs in almost two years. “Increased activities by private E&P firms is leading to cost inflation,” the respondent said. “Continued oilfield services consolidation may contribute to it further.”
Rise in New Mexico Earthquakes Likely Triggered by Oil Industry --New Mexico’s oil and gas regulators and scientists are on alert after a dramatic increase in earthquake activity in southern New Mexico — an increase likely triggered by oil and gas industry injection wells in the Permian Basin.Since 2018 the number of small quakes of magnitude 1 or greater in the basin has risen from about 40 to nearly 500 in 2020, and over that period quakes of magnitude of 2 or greater rose from none to 158, according to data from the New Mexico Bureau of Geology and Mineral Resources.There were 146 quakes through June so far this year. Those numbers are just in New Mexico — they are even higher over the border in the Texas portion of the basin.Texas had several larger events in the past year that were felt in New Mexico. And in July, a 4.0 temblor in New Mexico shook the southeast corner of the state, “which is something that we pay attention to, for sure,” says Litherland. “It indicates that there is a risk in that area that we need to understand.” Earthquakes can damage property if large enough. And there is some very important property in the area. The nation’s main nuclear weapons waste storage site, the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP), lies a half mile underground in a salt formation in the middle of the New Mexican portion of the basin, a little north of most of the quake activity. WIPP is the 10,000-year repository for highly toxic radioactive waste created by the nuclear weapons industry — things like tools, clothing and soil contaminated with plutonium. It is operated by private contractors for the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE). In 2014, a radioactive leak attributed to bad kitty litter contaminated several workers and shut the facility for nearly three years. And in 2016, ceiling collapses led to the closure of part of the underground facility. That’s not the only nuclear facility in the area. Another private company, URENCO, operates the country’s only commercial nuclear fuel enrichment plant 40 miles due east of WIPP, near Eunice, New Mexico, on the Texas state line. And just over the border from that, the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission just approved a high-level waste facility next to a decade-old low-level waste facility, something Texas Gov. Greg Abbott doesn’t like. And more of the nation’s commercial nuclear waste could be headed to this region as well. Holtec International, with support from the Nuclear Regulatory Commission, wants to build a nuclear waste storage facility for up to 100,000 tons of spent nuclear fuel rods 12 miles north of WIPP, a plan opposed by New Mexico Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham and others in state government. All of these nuclear sites are surrounded by brine injection wells, the likely cause of the increased seismicity in the basin.
An “attack on American cities” is freezing climate action in its tracks - When Regina Romero took office as the Democratic mayor of Tucson, Arizona, in 2019, she wanted her city to take action on climate change. Local building codes might have been a logical place to start: In the US, some 70 million buildings rely on fossil fuels that warm the planet, such as oil and gas, for heating and cooking. They generate a hefty 13 percent of national greenhouse gas emissions. While many answers to climate change require national and even international action, cities often have the unilateral power to craft local rules like building codes. But before the city of Tucson could even look at possible building reforms, the Republican-led state legislature took away its power to do so — by passing a state law that natural gas utilities are “not subject to further regulation by a municipality.”Supporters of the Republican bill were trying to beat climate advocates to the punch and “preempt” restrictions on fossil fuels. “We wanted to get ahead of what we viewed as an economically damaging trend, and stop it before it could gain a foothold here,” says Garrick Taylor, a spokesperson for the Arizona Chamber of Commerce and Industry, one of the lobbying groups that supported the bill.With those few lines of text, Arizona blocked a path for cleaning up a significant source of Tucson’s climate pollution — even as nations around the world are racing to transition to cleaner energy and slow disastrous climate change.The Arizona law “made it more difficult for local governments to act on climate change,” Mayor Romero said in a statement to Vox. The law is “limiting the pool of potential policy solutions we can enact ... tying the hands of local officials in Arizona, inhibiting progress and innovation in our cities and towns,” she added.Arizona was the first of many US states where “localities are cut off at the knees, because they’re in states where lawmakers are hostile” to these kinds of climate regulations, says Sheila Foster, a Georgetown University professor who specializes in urban environmental law. Interest groups for the natural gas industry, worried about losing energy customers, have now promoted bills in half the country to strip cities of basic powers to set greener building codes and help phase out fossil-fuel pollution. These “preemption” laws have swept through 20 state legislatures; three more states have bills pending this year.
Biden admin revokes Trump-era fossil fuel royalty regs - The Interior Department will ax Trump-era regulations this week that would have eliminated millions in federal revenues each year from coal and oil extraction.The Trump administration finalized the soon-to-be withdrawn valuation rule in January, after a failed attempt to repeal Obama-era reforms to how the federal government determines royalties payments on federal minerals.The Obama rule had eliminated controversial practices in the coal industry like “arms-length” sales of coal to subsidiaries at a discount, which depress royalty costs. It had also tightened oversight of the oil and gas sector’s royalty dues.But the Biden administration is withdrawing the Trump changes, a potential benefit of $64.6 million a year, according to the Office of Natural Resource Revenue press release earlier this year (Greenwire, June, 10).In its justification for withdrawing the 2020 rule, the ONRR today listed several “defects,” including a “lack of reasoned explanations for many of the amendments."The official withdrawal of the 2020 rule publishes Thursday in the Federal Register. But uncertainty around permanent valuation regulations persists in some areas.Just last month, a federal judge in the U.S. District Court for the District of Wyoming ruled against some of the coal provisions in the Obama-era regulations (Energywire, Sept. 9). The judge left the 2016 valuation regulations surrounding oil and gas intact.Litigation has plagued the valuation rules. Lawsuits from industry allies were voluntarily dropped when the Trump administration repealed the 2016 regulations but then revived after a California judge ruled against the repeal. That court ruling led to the Trump administration writing the 2020 valuation rule that is being withdrawn by the Biden administration this week.
Major Colorado-run natural gas pipeline aims to be first carbon-neutral gas transport - A major Colorado-run pipeline carrying natural gas from the Rockies across the Midwest aims to offer the first carbon-neutral energy transport through a deal struck with a Denver emissions monitoring startup. Leawood, Kansas-based Tallgrass Energy signed a multi-year emissions verification deal with Project Canary covering the 1,679-mile Rockies Express Pipeline, the companies announced Tuesday. The agreement includes having Project Canary monitor in real time all the Rockies Express Pipeline’s 22 compressor stations for methane emissions, which the companies say is a first for an interstate natural gas pipeline. The long-term goal of the agreement is to quickly detect leaks and fix them and verify the Rockies Express’ natural gas transport is carbon neutral, which means it doesn’t add to the greenhouse gases collecting in the atmosphere, causing climate change. “This first-of-its kind engagement underscores the critical importance of natural gas transmission systems in the energy transition,” said Matt Sheehy, Tallgrass’ president, in a statement. “Customers want assurances that natural gas is produced responsibly and being transported via low emissions pipeline systems.” The monitoring systems will start being set up later this year and are expected to be operating in mid-2022, the companies said. The Rockies Express is one of the nation’s major natural gas pipelines, connecting natural gas fields in the Rocky Mountain region and Appalachia to major population centers in the eastern U.S. The two-way, pressurized pipeline can carry as much as 4.4 billion cubic feet per day of natural gas. It starts near the town of Meeker, in western Colorado, and crosses Wyoming and five other states to reach eastern Ohio. The pipeline started operation in 2011. Tallgrass owns 75% of the Rockies Express and operates it. Phillips 66 (NYSE: PSX) owns the remaining 25%. The company says it intends to offer natural gas producers in Appalachia dedicated carbon-neutral transport to Midwestern markets. Methane, the active ingredient in natural gas, is considered an especially potent greenhouse gas, one that’s shorter-lived in the atmosphere than carbon dioxide, and as a result is seen as a particularly valuable type of emissions to eliminate in the effort to ward off the worst effects of climate change. Project Canary, launched in 2019, sells continuous emissions monitoring and related services to oil and gas producers and infrastructure companies. Chris Romer, Project Canary CEO, has argued that, as climate change concerns increasingly pressure natural gas sales, companies that are able to verify they’re minimizing emissions of methane should be able fetch a premium price from natural gas buyers compared to companies that don’t verify their emissions. “Actual real-time detection of fugitive methane emissions across the natural gas supply chain is the only way for the industry to truly know and improve what’s happening within their operations and help mitigate climate change,” he said in a project announcement with Tallgrass.
Tallgrass Energy Enters Agreement with Project Canary to Create the Nation’s First Certified Interstate Natural Gas Transmission System - A multi-year partnership announced today between Tallgrass Energy and Project Canary would make Tallgrass’ Rockies Express Pipeline (REX) the first interstate natural gas transmission pipeline in the United States to receive a comprehensive and independent environmental assessment and certification from Project Canary. The certification standards will be focused on environmental stewardship, operational excellence and real-time emissions detection and monitoring. Agreement highlights:
- REX will seek operational and emissions certification through independent third-party Project Canary
- REX will be the first pipeline to implement real-time emissions detection and monitoring across all of its compressor stations
- REX will be the first pipeline to differentiate carbon neutral transportation capacity for its customers across its large footprint, enabling the continued evolution of certified carbon neutral gas services across the nation
- The long-term objectives of the partnership will enable the midstream sector to certify carbon neutral gas transportation capacity and enable tip-to-tip certification and tracking of gas molecules, including responsibly sourced and renewable natural gas to markets seeking to meet new low carbon goals
- The engagement will enable the creation of a standardized certification process for pipeline transmission and storage segments
- Colorado School of Mines will partner with Project Canary to review and validate data
REX is one of the country’s largest natural gas header systems, with a total capacity of more than 4.4 bcf/d. As a bidirectional pipeline, REX allows access to Midwestern markets from key producing basins in the Rockies and Appalachia. To validate the agreement’s environmental stewardship and operational excellence criteria, Project Canary will install real-time monitoring devices to measure and quantify emissions across REX’s 22 compressor station sites, spanning more than 1,700 miles. As a result, REX will dedicate specific capacity to moving certified responsibly sourced gas from Appalachian producers to markets in the Midwest.
Tallgrass will monitor and measure emissions on the U.S. interstate natgas pipeline in Tall grass -- Tallgrass Energy Partners will begin monitoring emissions, including methane and other greenhouse gases, on its Rockies Express Pipeline, DENVER, Sept 28. On the company's Rocky Express Line, it'll be the first United States company to measure and certify the environmental impact of operations on an interstate natural gas pipeline. Natural gas producers, transporters, and utilities are embracing carbon-reduction measures and third-party ratings to show investors and consumers they are serious about reducing greenhouse gas emissions, owing to concerns over their environmental impacts. This year, Tallgrass and the carbon-measurement firm Project Canary plan to begin installing monitoring devices at compressor stations along the 1,700-mile pipeline to assess the environmental impact of its operations, according to Tall grass and Project Kanary. The devices will assist in real-time measurement of fugitive methane emissions, among other things. "Buyers want assurances that natural gas is produced and transported in the most environmentally responsible manner possible," said Matt Sheehy, president of Tallgrass. Producers and utilities have been getting a boost in natural gas certification over the previous year. Project Canary ranks EQT Corp (EQTA.N) and LNG-project developer NextDecade among its clients. MiQ, another firm that uses measurements to help manage carbon emissions, has signed Exxon Mobil (XOM.N) and Chesapeake Energy Corp (CHK.O) to use its techniques. "This has been a missing link," said Project Canary CEO Chris Romer, of pipeline operators' role in emissions reduction. It is conducting talks with more than a dozen other pipelines that are looking to monitor and verify the emissions footprint of their operations, according to him. Between northwestern Colorado and eastern Ohio, The Rockies Express Pipeline transports gas up to 4.4 billion cubic feet per day. Tallgrass owns a 75 percent stake in the line, with Phillips 65 (PSX.N) holding the remaining share.
Line 3 pipeline: What it is and why people in Burlington are protesting - Burlington community members showed up in droves on Sep. 24 to protest Line 3, a proposed $7.5 billion crude oil pipeline in Canada and the U.S. Midwest. The company behind the pipeline, Enbridge, calls the new project a "replacement" for the currently-existing Line 3 pipeline built in the 1960s. Activists including Minnesotans for Pipeline Cleanup say thatthis aging pipeline is corroding and cracking, contaminating the surrounding soil and water. If completed, the new pipeline would produce a carbon equivalent of50 coal-fired power plants, as reported by the nonprofit MN350, and cost $440 billion in "climate impacts" over 60 years, as calculated by the Minnesota Department of Commerce."This is just as serious as Standing Rock was," said Beverly Little Thunder, a Lakota elder from North Dakota who traveled to Burlington for the recent protest. "It's gonna take a whole state standing up and saying, 'This is wrong, no, you have to stop this.'"The new pipeline would cut through over 200 bodies of water, 389 acres of wild rice, and lands that Ojibwe people were guaranteed rights to "make a modest living from" by the Treaty of 1855, according to the organization Stop Line 3. These rights include hunting, fishing, harvesting wild rice, and preserving sacred sites, which Stop Line 3 activists say are all threatened by the proposed Enbridge pipeline.Another Enbridge pipeline ruptured in 2010, spilling 843,000 gallonsof oil into the Kalamazoo River, as recorded by the EPA. Until earlier this month, Enbridge indirectly owned percentages of Vermont Gas and Green Mountain Power. Vermont activists point tothis past connection, as well as the investment in the pipeline by banks with branches in Burlington, as reasons for why local community members should care about this national issue.
Controversial Line 3 done; oil set to flow Friday, Enbridge says - Oil will begin flowing through the controversial new Line 3 pipeline across northern Minnesota on Friday after Enbridge announced that work on the controversial project is "substantially complete." The $3 billion-plus pipeline is a replacement for the 50-year-old Line 3, which is corroding and operating at half capacity. Construction of the $3 billion-plus Minnesota portion of the pipeline — one of the largest projects in the state in recent history — began last December after a six-year battle before state regulators. "From day one, this project has been about modernizing our system and improving safety and reliability for the benefit of communities, the environment and our customers," Enbridge CEO Al Monaco said Wednesday in a news release. "Line 3 was developed and executed with the most state-of-the-art approach to design, construction and environmental management." The pipeline also restores full flow of oil to 760,000 barrels a day, boosting earnings for the Calgary, Alberta-based Enbridge. Hundreds have been arrested along the pipeline route as regular protests occurred during the construction. Environmental groups and Ojibwe tribes fought the pipeline before the Minnesota Public Utilities Commission and in multiple lawsuits, arguing it would open a new region of Minnesota lakes, rivers and wetlands to degradation from oil spills, as well as exacerbate climate change. "This is not the outcome we hoped for, but the fight to stop Line 3 has always been a fight for climate justice and a future free from fossil fuels, and that fight will not stop just because Enbridge has succeeded in building this pipeline," Margaret Levin, director of the Sierra Club North Star Chapter, said in a statement. The pipeline runs partly on a new route, veering off from Enbridge's current corridor that contains six oil pipelines running across Minnesota to the company's terminal in Superior, Wis., at the Clearbrook station. The Public Utilities Commission (PUC) approved the new Line 3 in early 2020, saying it was needed for safety reasons and to meet regional oil demand. The Minnesota Department of Commerce, acting for consumers, argued that a new Line 3 was not needed because fossil fuel demand is expected to fall over the coming years, although Enbridge has said all along its forecasts show it is needed.
Company to Pay $15M in Fines in North Dakota Oil Spill Case - The company responsible for the largest oil field spill in North Dakota pleaded guilty to criminal charges after reaching an agreement with the federal government to pay $15 million in fines.Summit Midstream Partners entered the pleas in federal court. Summit was charged for negligently discharging oil and for failing to immediately report the spill, which occurred north of Williston over a period of five months in 2014 and 2015.A pipeline leaked 700,000 barrels, or 29 million gallons, of produced water, which is highly saturated saltwater that comes up in wells along with oil and gas. Produced water can contain oil, the Bismarck Tribune reported.Some of the wastewater reached Blacktail Creek, which eventually flows into the Missouri River.The U.S. Department of Justice said the $15 million will go toward the federal Oil Spill Liability Trust Fund, which can be used to clean up oil spills.Summit also has agreed to take steps to prevent future spills by implementing better training, installation, operating and testing requirements. The company said it has spent $75 million on those improvements and spill cleanup.Summit has also reached a separate agreement with the federal and state government in a civil case related to the spill. It’s expected to pay $20 million to resolve the matter. That amount would be split evenly between the federal and state governments.A federal judge must sign off on the civil settlement.
TC Energy abandons eminent domain claims -Bold Nebraska and allied landowners with the Nebraska Easement Action Team rejoiced on Monday at the news that TC Energy (formerly TransCanada) has finally agreed to terminate easements still being sought via eminent domain proceedings in Nebraska county courts for its now-terminated Keystone XL pipeline project.Bold Nebraska provided some comments from landowners.“We are so happy that most of the landowners stuck together. It’s been a long, drawn-out affair, but we are so happy that it is finally over. In the future, we all need to be proactive and aware, so something so wrong doesn’t ever get this far again. Protecting land and water should be everyone’s duty,” said Richard and Maureen Johnson, landowners on the canceled Keystone XL route in Madison County.“It is harvest time here in Holt County, and while harvesting the corn and beans is great, this year we’re also reaping a decades-long fight against the condemnation of our land. While we are celebrating these harvests, we know the work continues, because ultimately we have to reform our eminent domain laws,” said Jeanne Crumly, landowner in Holt County.“A decades-long fight against the Keystone XL pipeline has now ended for these landowners with property rights being restored. Not a single statewide elected official, including Gov. Ricketts — who went on a tour touting property rights — stood with landowners. Land justice happened only because of the hard work of citizens, grassroots organizing, and a legal team who believed the land was worth protecting,” said Jane Kleeb, Bold Nebraska founder.Nebraska county courts entered into the formal record on Sept. 27, orders stating, “Keystone is directed to record a termination of easement with the Register of Deeds.”
Higher levels of organic pollutants found in homes located near natural gas wells, study finds --A University of Toronto study has found that those living close to natural gas wells are exposed to higher levels of certain organic pollutants in their homes. The study looked at levels of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) found in the air and drinking water in homes of pregnant women living in a region of northeastern British Columbia. "There's very little research about indoor air quality in regions with a lot of unconventional natural gas exploitation," says Élyse Caron-Beaudoin, an assistant professor in the department of health and society at U of T Scarborough and lead author of the study. For the study, 85 pregnant women from the Peace River region were recruited and passive air samplers were placed in their homes. Water samples were also taken from their kitchen taps. Researchers found that 40 out of the 47 VOCs tested for were detected in air samples, while three out of 40 VOCs tested for were detected in water samples. VOCs are organic chemicals, some of which have negative short- and long-term health effects. They are released by a variety of products and industrial processes. The researchers also looked at how many natural gas wells were located near homes as well as the distances. They found that the amount and proximity of natural gas wells to a home were linked to higher levels of certain VOCs. They also accounted for other factors related to exposure levels, including whether a home had an attached garage, the tap water source and whether the study participant smokes or is exposed to second-hand smoke. They also included each participant's Indigenous status. A previous pilot study done in the same region of B.C. by Caron-Beaudoin found higher levels of VOC metabolites in the urine samples of pregnant Indigenous women compared to pregnant non-Indigenous women. In the current study, the levels of VOCs associated with the amount and proximity of natural gas wells were similarly higher in the homes of Indigenous participants. While the researchers are unsure why higher levels were found in the homes of Indigenous participants, they point to research that shows ethnicity, Indigeneity and socioeconomic status all being linked to heightened health risks from industrial activities. The study, published in the journal Science of the Total Environment, also compared levels to the Canadian average. For a few of the VOCs—in particular acetone and chloroform in air samples, and trihalomethanes (THMs) in water samples—some participants recorded levels that placed them in the top 95th percentile in Canada.
LNG Demand in Latin America Continues Pulling Spot Cargoes Off the Market - Latin American liquefied natural gas (LNG) demand has had a record year in 2021 and it is not letting up, tightening a global gas market that has sent prices spiking around the world. Imports of LNG into Latin America for the first eight months of the year added up to 10.44 million tons, according to market research firm Kpler. Imports were 120% higher than in the comparable period last year, and up 36% compared with the January-August period in 2019. LNG imports into Latin America to date in September, at 1.02 million tons, are already double the entire month of September 2020, according to Kpler. Brazil, which is heavily dependent on hydroelectric power for its electricity, is facing a record drought and is leaning on LNG to keep the lights on. To date in September, Brazilian LNG imports have totaled 654,000 tons, versus zero cargoes in September 2020. “The country is continuing to struggle with the effects of the drought which is weighing on hydropower generation,” Kpler analyst Laura Page told NGI. She added that the country could see some relief in the coming weeks as peak rainfall season sets in. Brazil is still expected to continue importing higher levels of LNG through next year, which could also be aided by new import terminals that are under construction, Page said. Argentina and Chile LNG imports have also been robust, in particular during the colder May-September months, according to Kpler data. “LNG imports into Latin America continue to reach strong levels,” Kpler analyst Charles Costerousse told NGI. He said the region saw “record demand” during the summer months in North America, “led by very strong buying behavior from Brazil and especially Argentina.” Argentina brought on a second LNG import option in May following lower than expected domestic gas production and rising demand. Latin American LNG imports have continued to be hot so far this September, with the 1 million ton mark already eclipsed for the fifth consecutive month. Kpler is forecasting that in September, Latin America LNG imports should total around 1.5-1.6 million tons. “This continues to pull some of the much-needed ex-U.S. cargoes away from Europe, as 89% of September volumes into Latin America were sourced from the United States,” Costerousse said. Qatar and Equatorial Guinea supplied the rest, at 6% and 5% respectively.
The World’s Fastest Growing Shale Play Keeps On Breaking Records --Argentina’s Vaca Muerta shale play, having registered strong growth in oil and gas production and well activity levels in recent months, has emerged as the world’s fastest growing major shale basin, a Rystad Energy report shows. A record number of wells were completed and put on production (POP), propelling the play’s oil and gas output to new highs in July and August, and charting a course for even more growth by year-end. This surge from Vaca Muerta is poised to lift Argentina’s country-wide oil production to the highest level in years, with the play’s competitiveness also rising against US basins.Although complete data for September is not yet available, there is no doubt that the third quarter of 2021 will set a new record for the number of horizontal wells put on production in Vaca Muerta, with Rystad Energy estimating that the POP count will reach around 73 oil and gas wells. The previous record was in the fourth quarter of 2018, when the count reached 59 wells.The Vaca Muerta oil zone will probably see more than 50 wells put on production between July and September, while gas well POP activity will likely remain in the range of 20 to 25 wells for the quarter. While that means another record for oil wells alone, the gas well count has been higher in the past. This surge of activity caused oil production from the basin to rise beyond 160,000 barrels per day (bpd) for the first time ever in July, reaching an average of 162,000 bpd for the month, followed by an equally strong August that saw production at 161,000 bpd. For context, Vaca Muerta’s oil output had never exceeded 120,000 bpd until December 2020. Rystad Energy expects production to increase by as much as another 25% over the next three months, to close the year at nearly 200,000 bpd.
6-Month Sentence for Lawyer Who Took on Chevron Denounced as 'International Outrage'--Environmental justice advocates and other progressives on Friday condemned a federal judge's decision Friday to sentence human rights lawyer Steven Donziger to six months in prison — following more than two years of house arrest related to a lawsuit he filed decades ago against oil giant Chevron.The sentence, delivered by U.S. District Judge Loretta Preska in New York City, represents "an international outrage," tweeted journalist Emma Vigeland following its announcement.Donziger's sentence came a day after the United Nations Working Group on Arbitrary Detention said it was "appalled" by the U.S. legal system's treatment of the former environmental lawyer and demanded the U.S. government "remedy the situation of Mr. Steven Donziger without delay and bring it in conformity with the relevant international norms" by immediately releasing him.Donziger represented a group of farmers and Indigenous people in the Lago Agrio region of Ecuador in the 1990s in a lawsuit against Texaco—since acquired by Chevron—in which the company was accused of contaminating soil and water with its "deliberate dumping of billions of gallons of cancer-causing waste into the Amazon."An Ecuadorian court awarded the plaintiffs a $9.5 billion judgment in 2011—a decision upheld by multiple courts in Ecuador—only to have a U.S. judge reject the ruling, accusing Donziger of bribery and evidence tampering. Chevron also countersued Donziger in 2011.In 2019, U.S. District Judge Lewis A. Kaplan of the Southern District of New York—a former corporate lawyer with investments in Chevron—held Donziger in contempt of court after he refused to disclose privileged information about his clients to the fossil fuel industry. Kaplan placed Donziger under house arrest, where he has remained under strict court monitoring for 787 days.In addition to Kaplan's own connections to Chevron, the judge appointed private attorneys to prosecute the case, including one who had worked for a firm that represented the oil giant.Preska, who found Donziger guilty of the contempt charges in July, is a leader of the right-wing Federalist Society, which counts Chevron among its financial backers.
Panic buying of fuel in UK sparks fears doctors, teachers will be unable to get to work - There are calls for Britain's key workers to be given priority access to fuel, as the panic buying of gasoline across the country continues.It is estimated that the U.K. currently has a shortage of around 100,000 heavy goods vehicle (HGV) drivers, which has disrupted deliveries and constrained the supply of goods and fuel.In recent days, motorists have been sitting in long queues outside gas stations, often to find that no gasoline is available.The Petrol Retailers Association (PRA) estimated on Monday that up to 90% of stations in the country were dry.On Tuesday, Transport Secretary Grant Shapps said the situation was beginning to stabilize."A lot of petrol is now being transferred into people's cars and there are now the first very tentative signs of stabilization in the forecourt storage which won't be reflected in the queues as yet, but it's the first time we've seen more petrol in the petrol stations itself," he told Sky News.However, queues and gas station closures were still rife on Tuesday.There are concerns that essential workers – such as those in the health and social care sectors — could soon be unable to travel to work. Dr. Chaand Nagpaul, chair of the British Medical Association, urged the U.K. government to give healthcare workers priority access to fuel.He stressed that emergency and essential workers rely on fuel both to travel to work and for the work itself. "Everyone will have their own reasons for needing to fill up, but as pumps run dry there is a real risk that NHS [National Health Service] staff won't be able to do their jobs, and provide vital services and care to people who urgently need it," he said in a statement Monday.Doctor-led campaign group EveryDoctor also called for steps to be taken to ensure key workers could access fuel. "It is time for the government to share responsibility for our patients' well-being by prioritizing fuel for key workers,"
Petrol Shortage: BP Blames Panic Buying for Limited Fuel Supplies at UK Stations – - BP Plc, the second-largest fuel retailer in the U.K., said it has run out of the main grades at almost a third of its stations in the country following days of panic buying. “With the intense demand seen over the past two days, we estimate that around 30% of sites in this network do not currently have either of the main grades of fuel,” BP said in a statement Sunday. The London-based company said most of its 1,200 sites in the U.K. remain supplied 0and open.
Here's why Brits are panic buying gasoline— British drivers have been panic buying gasoline in recent days, leading to lengthy lines, gas station closures and concerns that doctors and teachers won't be able to get to work. Government ministers have continuously insisted that there is no shortage of fuel in the U.K., but lines to get to gas pumps have been rife since the end of last week.The surge in demand has led to the price of a liter of unleaded gas going up by a penny since Friday, according to motoring organization the RAC. Meanwhile, U.K. retailer Halfords said the sale of jerry cans — which many motorists use to store gasoline — increased by 1,656% over the weekend.Oil giant BP and Exxon Mobil's Esso confirmed Friday that they had temporarily closed a handful of their U.K. gas stations due to an industry-wide driver shortage which had impacted their supply chains. The problem become more widespread this week following days of consumers stockpiling gas. By Monday, some gas station operators had reported that 90% of their sites were dry, according to the U.K.'s Petrol Retailers Association.On Tuesday, Transport Secretary Grant Shapps told Sky News that the market was seeing "the first very tentative signs of stabilization in forecourt storage," although he acknowledged this would not yet be reflected in the lengthy lines for gas.According to the British government, the U.K. has a strong supply of gasoline. The country's environment minister, George Eustice, told the BBC Monday that the only reason gas stations were running out of fuel was because of people who were buying gas when they didn't need it. But it's the logistical challenge of getting that supply to consumers that has created the problem. The U.K. has an estimated shortage of 100,000 truck drivers, meaning deliveries of gasoline and other goods are facing severe disruptions. The government has taken some steps to help stabilize the supply chain — including putting the army on standby to help deliver fuel — but unease over the situation is still present among consumers. In fact, most of the blame for the chaos lies with "anxiety, anxiety, anxiety," according to Cathrine Jansson-Boyd, associate professor in consumer psychology at the U.K.'s Anglia Ruskin University."Panic buying is usually fueled by some level of uncertainty," she told CNBC in a phone call Tuesday. "We've had a lot of studies during [the pandemic] that show people have been very anxious — people aren't conscious of this, of course, but they have been very anxious. And that means that the underpinnings are already in place for people to start having higher levels of concern that surface."Jansson-Boyd added that the "fear of missing out effect" kicks in when people see reports and images of others lining up for gasoline.
Boris Johnson prepares to call in army as panic buying drains UK petrol pumps - Boris Johnson is preparing to draft in hundreds of soldiers to tackle the UK’s fuel crisis as at least half of petrol stations outside the motorway network have run out of fuel after Britons engaged in panic buying. The prime minister will meet senior ministers and officials on Monday to examine the latest data following the disruption to fuel supplies caused by a scarcity of tanker drivers. One senior government insider said: “The situation in England is very bad.” Johnson will consider using the army to drive tankers around the country, under contingency planning known as Operation Escalin. Brian Madderson, chair of the Petrol Retailers Association, a trade body, said a survey of members on Sunday indicated 50 to 85 per cent of all independent service stations had now run dry, excluding motorway forecourts and some supermarket sites that had been given priority by oil companies. Madderson told the BBC Radio 4 Today programme on Monday morning that supplies in Northern Ireland were still steady and that the problem was confined to the mainland, with concentrated urban areas suffering the most. He said that there had been training going on “in the background” for military personnel to drive tankers but cautioned that they might not possess all the skills, such as loading, needed to do the job. The government announced on Sunday evening that it would temporarily exempt the energy industry — including producers, suppliers, hauliers and retailers — from the 1998 competition act, allowing companies to share information and prioritise deliveries to areas of greatest need. Officials are receiving updates up to four times a day. But there was some hope in government that the panic buying had calmed by Saturday. Those with knowledge of the situation said that the best-case scenario was that disruption would clear within five days. “There is a crisis in data; we are trying to get a better picture on when the panic will pass,” one insider said. Madderson said what had been a “manageable issue” of localised shortages at a small number of retail sites last week had quickly spiralled after media reports of supply problems had set off panic buying by motorists, with some members stating demand had surged “500 per cent above the normal level” on Saturday, quickly draining forecourt fuel tanks. The UK has about 8,000 petrol stations, the majority run by independent retailers, some of whom operate franchises using the big oil companies’ brands. Madderson told the Financial Times that while the short-term issue was “panic buying”, the root cause was “a government that’s been dragging its feet over the issue of the number of haulage drivers on the ground”. Ministers bowed to business pressure on Saturday and announced they would issue temporary visas to 5,000 foreign heavy goods vehicle drivers to help tackle major labour shortages in the logistics industry. The government move came after panic buying followed BP saying last week that as many as 100 service stations had been disrupted and several forecourts closed because of a shortage of tanker drivers. Grant Shapps, transport secretary, on Sunday urged people to be “sensible” and said there was plenty of fuel at Britain’s six refineries and 47 storage facilities. “The most important thing is that actually people carry on as they normally would and fill up their cars when they normally would, then you won’t have queues and you won’t have shortages at the pump either,”
Europe's crippling energy crisis presages trouble for the rest of the world --Natural gas prices have soared by almost 500% in 2021 and with another winter just around the corner gas is trading at near-record values. While European countries attempt to outbid one another for supplies from major exporters it's inevitable that utilities will turn back to coal to provide heat for its residents and power for its dying economy, but this will not be enough. The effects of Europe's catastrophic policymaking are about to escalate to another level. "Nations are more reliant than ever on natural gas to heat homes and power industries amid efforts to quit coal and increase the use of cleaner energy sources. But there isn’t enough gas to fuel the post-pandemic recovery and refill depleted stocks before the cold months," Bloomberg's Stephen Stapczynski noted.1 With natural gas inventories in Europe at historically low levels for this time of year, the crunch will get a lot worse when temperatures drop. The spike in prices has already forced some fertilizer producers in Europe to reduce output, with more expected to follow, threatening to increase costs for farmers and potentially adding to global food inflation, Stapczynski said. While governments are now hoping that nature will come to their aid with mild winter, making the effects of their catastrophic decisions less severe, that scenario is almost impossible to happen. It's much more likely we'll see another brutally cold winter across the hemisphere, with lots of snow and extremely cold periods in regions where we least expect them. "The next three to four months may lead to unexpected consequences for all industries with a particular hit being taken by those that are energy-intensive," said Slava Kiryushin, global head of energy at DWF, an international provider of legal and business services.2 "If the winter is actually cold, my concern is we will not have enough gas for use for heating in parts of Europe," Amos Hochstein, the U.S. State Department’s senior adviser for energy security, told Bloomberg. For some countries, 'it won’t only be a recessionary value, it will affect the ability to actually provide gas for heating. It touches everybody’s lives.' Keep in mind that summers are already shorter and winters longer, putting an additional strain on energy suppliers. It's utterly embarrassing for the policymakers, but the situation brings back coal to the European table. However, coal alone will not solve the crisis as exports of the commodity from Australia, South Africa, and Colombia remain hampered by the COVID measures and supply chain challenges, compounding the effect of low Russian supply.2 "The crisis in Europe presages trouble for the rest of the planet as the continent’s energy shortage has governments warning of blackouts and factories being forced to shut," Stapczynski said, adding that the power crisis could exacerbate shutdowns if authorities divert gas to light and heat households. "This winter, the world is likely to learn how much the global economy depends on natural gas,"
Energy crunch: Natural gas prices in Europe hit record 100 euros - Energy prices are rising from the U.S. to Europe and Asia as the economy recovers from the global pandemic and people return to the offices. Europe is struggling to secure enough gas and coal ahead of the winter, with rising prices forcing some of industrial giants from fertilizer producers CF Industries to Yara International ASA and chemicals giant BASF SE to shut plants or curtail output. Governments are struggling to respond to the crunch, with an increasing number taking steps to try to shield voters from the worst effects of rising prices. France will block any new increase in regulated gas tariffs and cut taxes on electricity, Prime Minister Jean Castex said on TF1 on Thursday. “The volatile trading already shows that no one really knows how high gas can go, but we’re definitely in for a wild ride,” said Niek van Kouteren, a senior trader at PZEM, a Dutch energy company. “The question will be: where there will be demand destruction? If you then see governments stepping in and subsidizing gas prices, like France announced yesterday, there is no incentive at all to lower your demand.” Dutch gas futures surged to 100 euros a megawatt-hour, before retreating 0.7% to 97 euros by 1:05 p.m. in Amsterdam. Prices were swinging between gains and losses as traders weighed the potential for demand curbs as more factories shut or reduce production.
Global gas wars: the fun has just begun! - Spot price for natural gas in Europe has just breached the psychologically important level of $1000 per thousand cubic meters, or a buck a cube. This has already had some significant results all across Europe. In the UK, fertilizer plants can’t operate at such prices and have shut down. This will in due course cause food price inflation later on, but the immediate effect is to deprive consumers of packed meat and beer because of a shortage of dry ice that is a byproduct of fertilizer production. Meanwhile, all the way on the other side of what remains of the European Union, in the Baltic statelets electricity prices are now 10 times higher than just across the border in Russia. Of course, they are welcome to buy cheap and plentiful electricity from Russia, but that has to come in via Belarus and Lithuania and the Lithuanians have strategically wrecked relations with Belarus by harboring the fugitive Tikhanovskaya the cutlet queen who is a sort of Belarussian Juan Guaidó. On the other side of Belarus lies the Ukraine, where things are even more fun. Back in spring of 2019 the Ukraine declined Russia’s gracious offer to sell it gas $240-260 per thousand cubes (a quarter of the current spot price) and instead opted to buy it on the spot market. The result is that the Ukraine needs 13 billion cubes of gas in storage to get through the heating season but has less than 5. But it can always buy what it needs on the spot market, right? Wrong! The Ukraine is broke and has zero budgeted for this purpose. Luckily, it can still buy cheap electricity from Russia—at least until Ukrainian nationalists decide to blow up the transmission lines to Russia like they did with the ones to Russian Crimea a while back, causing energy shortages there and forcing the Russians to construct an energy bridge to it from the mainland in a process that took close to a year. But things are much better in the United States which, after all, is a proud exporter of natural gas thanks to what is left of its fracking industry. Wrong again! The Industrial Energy Consumers of America (IECA), a chemical and food industry lobbying group, has just demanded that the US Department of Energy place limits on LNG exports. Otherwise, they say, very high natural gas prices will render numerous US enterprises noncompetitive and force them to shut down. Prices have already gone up by 41% over the past year. But that’s not enough to stimulate production: natural gas production in the US is falling together with the drilling rig count and the amount of gas in storage is currently 7.4% below the previous five year average. Attempting to put limits on LNG exports will cause loud screams from energy industry lobbyists, who have plenty of clout on Capitol Hill, and result in protracted political battles in an already sharply divided and disagreeable US Congress.
Beyond Petroleum: The First Supermajor To Turn Its Back On Oil - While international policymakers and regulatory bodies have already been applying some degree of pressure on the energy industry to decarbonize for years now, the push for cleaning up the global energy sector’s act has been supercharged by the most recent report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and the United Nations (UN). The landmark 6th Assessment Report announced in no uncertain terms that we have reached a point of no return for the climate, having irreversibly altered weather patterns and unequivocally warmed the Earth due to human activity. However, there is still a small window of time to mitigate further damage and change the planet’s trajectory toward catastrophic climate change. This will require decarbonization at a massive scale and on an incredibly short timeline. The UN, not mincing words, has called it a “code red for humanity.”That being said, it’s simply not feasible for the global economy to quit fossil fuels cold turkey. It’s going to take time, investment, infrastructure, and enormous effort to complete the clean energy transition, and in the meantime, the world still needs hundreds of billions of barrels of oil. This dynamic has made it hard to convince oil supermajors to set aside fossil fuels -- their stalwart cash cow -- when there is still so much money to be made before oil goes quietly into that goodnight, especially when brand new mass-scale clean energy enterprises probably won’t turn a profit for years.Despite the bumps in the road, however, it’s clear which way the tide is turning. Fossil fuels aren’t irrelevant yet, but they have no place in the future if this planet is to have one. Already, some oil execs and fossil fuel industry defectors have decided to abandon ship and are positioning themselves at the helm of the clean energy revolution, bringing their oilfield know-how and innovative expertise with them. And now, at long last, some oil companies are reading the writing on the wall and deciding to bet big on renewables in order to establish a place at the front of the pack for the new energy era. One of the most notable cases is that of BP, which is changing course and liquidating huge portions of its fossil fuel holdings in a historic shift in strategy. BP’s bold new Chief Executive Bernard Looney is trying to make sure that BP can beat its peers in a race toward clean energy dominance. “He aims to slash BP's output by 40%, or about 1 million barrels per day, an amount equal to the UK's entire daily output in 2019,” Reuters recently reported. This makes BP the very first major oil company CEO to announce intentional cuts in future oil production. “At the same time,” the report continued, “BP would boost its capacity to generate electricity from renewable sources to 50 gigawatts, a 20-fold increase and equivalent to the power produced by 50 U.S. nuclear plants.”
Brian Sullivan: Five key takeaways from OPEC’s 2045 oil outlook - The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries rolled out an opus — its "World Oil Outlook 2045." Clocking in at a Texas-sized 340 pages, it's not the easiest of reads, but helpfully the good folks in Vienna tossed us a 30-page Executive Summary as well as an interactive edition.Whatever OPEC says about oil, oil demand, the future of cars and everything else fossil fuel-related is going to be discounted, if not openly mocked, given that the organization is one of petroleum-exporting countries. It's not the renewables-exporting countries, although OREC has a certain ring. Still, the group and its researchers did a great job of putting together a lot of data, information and projections in Tuesday's report. During my trips to OPEC headquarters in Austria, I've gotten to know some of the women and men who put this together. They aren't oil roughnecks, but studious academic types working in a well-stocked library. They are more pragmatic than one might think for an advocacy organization. There's a ton of stuff to discuss and debate in the 2045 Outlook, but here are the five things that stuck out most to me.
- 1. Oil is far from dead. A projection that oil and fossil fuels will live on — put out by an oil and fossil fuel organization — is the least surprising thing you'll see all year. But feigned shock aside, OPEC's global population growth projections are hard to ignore when it comes to a global energy mix in years and decades ahead. Their base case is that global oil demand will rise until 2045. And before you bash them, keep in mind there are plenty of Wall Street firms with projections that aren't that far off.
- 2. It's not 'U.S.' It's the world. We can scoff at that projection all we want as we tweet from our new iPhones in a comfortable home, but OPEC reminds us that it is a big world out there. It's getting bigger and growing in places that are not known as the United States or Western Europe. The growth will come from countries where electricity may still be substandard and a car — any car — is a valuable asset.
- 3. A renewables boom — sort of…The good news on the renewables side? Demand for "other renewables," including wind and solar, is expected to jump. Yet even with this scenario, OPEC sees this as just over 10% of the global fuel source in 25 years. Coal keeps dropping, oil slumps a little and natural gas grows. Oh, and nuclear continues to get no love.
- 4. Oil demand will be hit by electric vehicles, but maybe not as much as you think.. But to OPEC's first point about where the growth will come from, you need to consider the world. Maybe as many as a billion people do not have access to reliable electricity (or clean drinking water for that matter). For hundreds of millions of families having a car — any car — is a life changer. And many of those cars will be low cost, internal combustion powered. At least that's what OPEC projects.
- 5. Texas (and maybe New Mexico) take off again. If you're bullish on American oil production or oil producers, this one's for you. OPEC sees a "return to growth" for fracking in the U.S. Though production gains have been muted for some time now, OPEC says we should start to see that change next year. By the way, New Mexico is now the No. 2 oil-producing state in the U.S., overtaking North Dakota, according to The Bismarck Tribune.
The Energy Crisis Is Sending Oil, Gas, And Coal Prices Soaring -- Just ahead of the winter season, Europe’s natural gas crunch created a snowball effect in global energy markets. What started as very low gas inventories in Europe during the summer is now spilling over into oil, natural gas, and coal prices all over the world, with no quick fix or signs of a major short-term correction in sight. Brent Crude prices topped $79 per barrel early on Monday - the highest level in three years. Prices are now headed for $80 - a level which some analysts had forecast in the summer, but which not many market participants believed would happen because of the Delta variant depressing prices and demand in some parts of the world in July and August. However, as the winter heating season in the northern hemisphere approaches, gas and power prices in Europe are surging, driving up coal demand and prices in Europe and globally as more coal is used in the power sector. At the same time, economies are rebounding from last year’s COVID-inflicted slump, with energy-intensive industries growing. But as demand rises, supply stays muted due to underinvestment in new energy supply in the past 18 months, the OPEC+ cuts, and weather-related outages such as Hurricane Ida at the end of August, which constrained U.S. Gulf of Mexico oil and gas supply throughout September. Because the supply of oil, gas, and coal is struggling to catch up with recovering demand, energy prices are rallying around the world. Consumers and industries in Europe have already started to feel the pinch from record gas and power prices. Industries across Europe are scaling back operations due to record natural gas and power prices, threatening to deal a blow to the post-COVID recovery. Utilities are firing up more coal-powered electricity generation, pushing demand for coal higher, despite the record carbon prices in Europe and the European Union’s pledges to be a net-zero bloc by 2050. European coal prices have hit a 13-year high as coal supply to Europe remains constrained and utilities fire up more coal power plants amid surging natural gas prices.The rally in natural gas prices is also spurring on global demand for coal. China and India are replenishing low stocks of coal, driving coal prices in Asia to records. Goldman Sachs has recently nearly doubled its price projection for coal prices in Asia, expecting the benchmark Newcastle thermal coal to average $190 a ton in the fourth quarter, up from a previous forecast of $100 per ton, due to sky-high gas prices ahead of the winter heating season.In China, a power supply crunch may be looming amid soaring coal and gas prices and electricity demand. Chinese authorities are ordering some factories in the heavy industries to curtail operations or shut down to avoid a power supply crisis, Bloomberg reports. The gas and coal price spikes globally are set to raise demand for crude oil in the winter as a substitute fuel, analysts and OPEC itself say. A gas-to-oil switch and continued recovery in global oil demand have analysts and major oil trading houses predicting that oil will hit $80 and even $90 this winter - and potentially$100 a barrel at the end of 2022.
Oil prices extend gains, WTI passes $75 on global supply crunch ---Brent closed at the highest in nearly three years amid signs the crude market is rapidly tightening from a global energy crunch. The global benchmark crude surged 1.8% on Monday, but met some resistance as it neared the key, psychological $80-a-barrel level. Its U.S. counterpart rose 2% to close above $75 a barrel for the first time since July. Both benchmarks are set to continue climbing as supply struggles to catch up with fast-rising demand, according to Trafigura Group’s co-head of oil trading Ben Luckock. His remarks came as Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said Brent could hit $90 by year-end as the market is in a bigger deficit than many realize. Brent failed to break $80 because some speculators were taking profits, said Bob Yawger, director of the futures division at Mizuho Securities. “We should look for the market to reload and give the $80 level another shot in coming days.” Crude is rallying on signs that inventories globally are falling sharply, with demand heating up ahead of winter and OPEC+ only slowly adding barrels back to the market. As traders eye the prospect of large market deficits, Trafigura said longer-dated oil prices remain cheap at around $70 a barrel. So-called timespreads, which gauge market strength, have rallied sharply in recent weeks in another sign that traders are positive about the outlook. “Observable inventory draws are the largest on record,” Goldman Sachs analysts including Damien Courvalin wrote in a note to clients. “This deficit will not be reversed in coming months, in our view, as its scale will overwhelm both the willingness and ability of OPEC+ to ramp up.” West Texas Intermediate for November delivery advanced $1.47 to settle at $75.45 a barrel in New York. Brent for November settlement climbed $1.44 to settle at $79.53 a barrel. WTI’s front-month contract traded at the biggest premium to its second-month in nearly two months. Meanwhile, OPEC+ is scheduled to meet on Oct. 4. to review its output policy. Internal documents from the group have already highlighted the risk of the natural gas crisis ramping up demand. World oil consumption could be boosted by an additional 370,000 barrels a day -- roughly 6% of expected growth -- if gas prices stay high for an extended period, according to the group.
Oil gains for fifth day amid supply constraints - Oil prices rose for a fifth straight day on Monday with Brent heading for $80 amid supply concerns as parts of the world sees demand pick up with the easing of pandemic conditions. Brent crude climbed 1.84%, or $1.44, to settle at $79.53 per barrel, having risen for a third consecutive week through Friday. U.S. Oil settled $1.47, or 2%, higher at $75.45 per barrel, its highest since July, after rising for a fifth straight week last week. "Supply tightness continues to draw on inventories across all regions," ANZ Research said in a note. Rising gas prices as also helping drive oil higher as the liquid becomes relatively cheaper for power generation, ANZ analysts said in the note. Caught short by the demand rebound, members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and their allies, known as OPEC+, have had difficulty raising output as under-investment or maintenance delays persist from the pandemic. China's first public sale of state oil reserves has barely acted to cap gains as PetroChina and Hengli Petrochemical bought four cargoes totaling about 4.43 million barrels. India's oil imports hit a three-month peak in August, rebounding from nearly one-year lows reached in July, as refiners in the second-biggest importer of crude stocked up in anticipation of higher demand.
Oil prices soar above $80 for the first time in 3 years as the natural gas shortage stokes demand --Brent crude, the benchmark global oil price, rose above $80 a barrel for the first time in three years on Tuesday, as supply shortages and a natural gas crunch rocked energy markets.The benchmark price rose as much as 1.7% to $80.75 a barrel before paring its gains slightly, according to Bloomberg prices. WTI crude, the US benchmark, rose as high as $76.67 a barrel.Brent crude has risen around 55% this year as economies have reopened and demand has bounced back rapidly, while the OPEC group of crude-exporting countries have kept prices buoyant by limiting supply.Oil-price rises have picked up speed over the last few weeks, however. One reason is that Hurricane Ida shut down much of the US's production capacity, limiting supply from a major market.Another key reason, analysts said, is the ongoing energy crunch that has sent natural gas prices soaring in Europe. Investors are now betting that users will start buying oil as an alternative to natural gas, which has become prohibitively expensive for many industries.Goldman Sachs said this week it now expects Brent crude to hit $90 a barrel by the end of the year, compared to a forecast of $80 a barrel previously.The bank said that the impact of Hurricane Ida that shuttered production capacity in the Gulf of Mexico and much of the shale basin has more than offset a recent increase in oil production from OPEC and its allies, known as OPEC+.And it said: "Winter demand risks are further now squarely skewed to the upside as the global gas shortage will increase oil fired power generation."
Brent oil jumps to nearly 3-year high above $80, up more than 50% for 2021 International oil benchmark Brent crude jumped during early trading on Tuesday morning, topping $80 per barrel for the first time since October 2018 before reversing those gains and dipping into negative territory. The breather comes after five straight positive sessions for oil, with the rally supported by demand rebounding as supply remains tight. West Texas Intermediate crude futures, the U.S. oil benchmark, hit a more than two-month high of $76.67 per barrel before also pulling back. The contract finished the day at $75.29 per barrel, for a loss of 0.21%. Both WTI and Brent are coming off five straight weeks of gains, and each is up more than 50% for 2021. "A persistent supply deficit is leading to an ever tighter oil market, with OECD inventories likely to end the year at the lowest level of demand cover in decades," analysts at Barclays wrote Tuesday in a note to clients. The firm hiked its 2022 targets for WTI and Brent to $74 and $77 per barrel, respectively. Brent declined 0.55% to settle at $79.09 per barrel. Goldman Sachs envisions the contract hitting $90 by the end of the year as demand continues to recover. The firm hiked its target on Sunday to $90 after previously forecasting Brent at $80 by the end of the year. In April 2020 as the pandemic sapped worldwide demand for petroleum products, briefly sending WTI plunging into negative territory, producers implemented historic output cuts. OPEC and its allies removed nearly 10 million barrels per day from the market, and while the group has slowly opened the taps, the members are still holding back production. A similar story played out in the U.S. Wells were shut-in and producers have been slow to kick up output. Instead, they've focused on shoring up balance sheets, paying down debt and returning money to shareholders. Demand has since recovered amid the widescale rollout of the vaccine, all while supply remains constrained. This is especially true after years of under-investment in the sector. Oil is also getting a boost amid the eye-popping rally in natural gas prices, which could prompt utilities to switch from gas to oil. Natural gas futures jumped more than 9% at one point on Tuesday to $6.26 per million British thermal units, the highest level in at least 7.5 years. The contract is now up more than 40% for September with inventory below historical levels heading into the winter. "Global natural gas markets are very tight now, with inventories much below normal in both Europe and U.S.," said Ed Morse, global head of commodities at Citi. "Thus, prices should continue to stay at current elevated levels globally in the upcoming winter, with the potential for further price spikes triggered by much colder-than-normal weather, unless winter weather turns out to be mild." The energy sector is by far the best S&P 500 group for September, up more than 10%. The second-best sector is financials, which is up just 1%.
$80 oil is sending the market toward demand destruction, Morgan Stanley says - The current energy market picture is looking good for oil bulls. International benchmark Brent crude passed the long-anticipated threshold of $80 per barrel on Tuesday, though it's since slipped back down to trade at $78.47 as of Wednesday at 10:30 a.m. in London. West Texas Intermediate was trading at $74.73 per barrel around the same time. With winter ahead and a gas crunch in Europe, the demand picture appears promising. But demand destruction could be right around the corner as prices climb higher, some experts are warning. "Oil prices have disconnected from the marginal cost of supply. Instead, they are travelling to the level where demand destruction kicks in, which we estimate at ~$80/bbl." That's what Morgan Stanley wrote in June, and in a note Tuesday, the bank wrote: "This remains our thesis." It added, however, that "the price at which demand destruction kicks in can be fiendishly difficult to estimate. We leave our price forecast unchanged for now but recognise that, on current trends, upside to our bull case scenario to $85/bbl clearly exists." Morgan Stanley foresees global oil supply getting tighter, citing an average of 3 million barrels of crude per day of inventory draws in the last month, compared to 1.9 million barrels per day drawn in the preceding months of this year. "These draws are high and suggest the market is more undersupplied than generally perceived," the bank's analysts Martijn Rats and Amy Sergeant said. Furthermore, flights and transport have picked up, with Flightradar data on commercial flights "closing the gap to pre-covid levels," they said. Still, not all the signs are bullish. The World Bank said Tuesday that the Delta variant is slowing economic growth in the East Asia and Pacific region, and growth forecasts have been downgraded for most of the region's countries. And China faces a potential slowdown with its Evergrande crisis and a growing power shortage that's hitting factories, homes and supply chains. "China's economic troubles are casting a dark shadow on the demand side of the oil coin and hence the price outlook," warned Stephen Brennock, a senior analyst at London-based PVM Oil Associates. Higher energy prices will also fuel even higher inflation, which poses a significant threat to demand. "Rising oil prices have been one of the biggest drivers of inflation," Brennock said in a note Tuesday. "And a worsening inflationary situation will act as a drag on the fragile economic recovery and oil consumption. This brings us neatly onto the issue of demand destruction."
Oil prices may hit $100 this winter, spurring economic crisis, warns Bank of America --The global energy crunch could help propel oil prices above $100 a barrel for the first time since 2014 and spur a global economic crisis, according to Bank of America. Natural gas prices have already surged to almost double that level in oil equivalent terms, and BofA says a spike in demand for diesel could push crude into similar territory. With monetary and fiscal policy stretched to the limit and energy costs rising as a share of economic output, higher oil prices could in turn create a macro crisis, the bank said Friday in a note. The boost to crude would be driven by three factors: gas-to-oil switching as a result of high gas prices, a jump in crude consumption over a cold winter and higher aviation demand as the U.S. reopens its borders. “If all these factors come together, oil prices could spike and lead to a second round of inflationary pressures around the world,” analysts including Francisco Blanch wrote in the note. “Put differently, we may just be one storm away from the next macro hurricane.” Diesel prices could climb above $120 a barrel, the bank said, with stockpiles falling as refiners prioritized the production of gasoline in recent months. Other oil-based fuels used in heating are already seeing an uplift, with U.S. propane prices at their highest since 2014. As well as the cooler weather, BofA also said that underinvestment in commodities due to poor returns is also set to fuel higher oil prices in the longer-term. “A multiyear run up in crude oil prices is now in the cards,” the bank said.
Oil Futures Ease Ahead of API Stock Data - Weighed down by a rallying U.S. Dollar Index and a selloff in U.S. equity markets triggered by default warnings from Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, oil futures nearest delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange and Brent crude traded on the Intercontinental Exchange turned lower Tuesday. Traders were positioning ahead of weekly inventory data released Tuesday afternoon by the American Petroleum Institute that is expected to show a second consecutive build in domestic gasoline stockpiles.In prepared remarks before the U.S. Senate Banking Committee, Yellen warned on Tuesday that Congress must raise the debt ceiling by Oct. 18 to avert the first default in U.S. history."The full faith and credit of the United States would be impaired, and our country would likely face a financial crisis and economic recession," said Yellen. Late Monday, Senate Republicans blocked a bill to fund the federal government until Dec. 3 and raise the debt ceiling. Yellen cautioned that even flirting with a default could rattle financial markets.The Dow Jones Industrial dropped more than 600 points at its low point on Tuesday before paring losses somewhat to a little more than 550 points or 1.6% late afternoon. U.S. Dollar Index, meanwhile, rallied 0.43% against a basket of foreign currencies to settle at a 93.780 11-month high, while weighing on the front-month West Texas Intermediate futures contract.At settlement, NYMEX November WTI futures slipped $0.16 to $75.29 barrel (bbl) after trading as high as $76.67 earlier in the session. ICE November Brent retreated from a 35-month spot high $80.75 bbl to settle a tad above $79 bbl. NYMEX October ULSD futures declined 0.70 cent to $2.2890 gallon from a fresh 35-month spot high of $2.3320 gallon, and front-month RBOB futures fell 2.18 cents or 1% to $2.2019 gallon. Tuesday afternoon, oil traders awaited the release of weekly inventory data from the API, with U.S. crude oil inventories seen falling by 2.5 million bbl in the week ended Sept. 24. .Earlier in the session, oil futures were up sharply on the news of deepening fuel shortages in the European Union and China where record runs in gas prices and depleted inventories stocked concerns over global energy crunch. Dutch TTF (Title Transfer Facility) and UK NBP (National Balancing Point) natural gas prices both hit all-time settlement highs on Monday.
WTI Extends Losses After Surprise Crude Build - - Oil prices pumped'n'dumped today with WTI above $76.50 intraday before falling back (and Brent near 3-year highs above $80 before fading) as a shortfall in global energy supplies is spilling into crude markets.“It got ugly in the equity space and the interest rate environment got stronger this morning too,” “Those two facts conspired to tank the market here.”The latest gains for oil prices have come as part of a broader rally in energy markets, with depleted natural gas inventories and resurgent economic activity sparking fierce competition in Europe and Asia for natural gas to feed their power markets."Oil's move is really to do with the global energy crunch coming out of the gas power market," said Norbert Rücker, head of economics at Swiss private bank Julius Baer."This is now spilling over into the oil market because of the expectation that this energy scarcity means we're going to use oil for spillover demand." In some power plants, oil can be used to generate electricity when gas prices surge.Losses in U.S. Gulf of Mexico production following the impact of Hurricane Ida are also supportive of higher prices in the short-term. API:
- Crude +4.127mm (-2.5mm exp)
- Cushing +359k
- Gasoline +3.555mm
- Distillates +2.483mm
Analysts expected an 8th straight week of crude inventory draws, but were surprised when API reported a 4.127mm build. In fact, the entire complex saw inventories rise...
Oil Futures Slip After Bearish API Stock Data, USD Gains -- Nearby delivery month oil futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange and Brent crude on the Intercontinental Exchange fell in pre-inventory trade Wednesday, with West Texas Intermediate November contract sliding below $75 per barrel (bbl) after preliminary data from the American Petroleum Institute showed across-the-board builds in U.S. crude and petroleum product supplies last week, while a stronger U.S. Dollar Index and concerns over a possible government default on $28.5 trillion in debt added further headwinds. API late Tuesday afternoon reported nationwide crude oil and distillate stocks unexpectedly increased in the week ended Sept. 24, while also detailing a larger-than-expected build in gasoline inventories. API reported commercial crude oil supplies rose 4.127 million bbl in the week profiled, missing calls for a 2.5 million bbl draw. Data show stocks at the Cushing, Oklahoma, hub added 359,000 million bbl. Gasoline stockpiles rose 3.555 million bbl in the week ended Sept. 24, nearly four times estimates for a build of 900,000 bbl. API data show distillate inventories rose 2.483 million bbl compared with an expected 1.3 million bbl draw. In early trading, NYMEX November WTI futures slid $0.55 to $74.74 bbl, come under additional pressure as the U.S. Dollar Index rallied to a fresh nearly 11-month high at 94 overnight. ICE November Brent retreated from Tuesday's $80.75 bbl 35-month high on the spot continuous chart to trade near $78.50, down about $0.60 ahead of expiration Thursday afternoon, with the December contract trading at a roughly $0.65 discount in the backwardated market. NYMEX October ULSD futures edged down 0.55 cents to near $2.2835 gallon ahead of expiration Thursday, with the November contract at a roughly 20-cent discount. October RBOB futures moved about 0.85 cents lower to $2.1885 gallon, with November delivery trading at a 4.95-cent discount in the seasonally backwardated market ahead of the October contract's expiration Thursday afternoon. In financial markets, concerns surrounding a looming government shutdown later this week, as well as failure to raise the nation's $28.4 trillion debt ceiling, continue to limit the market's upside. Equities on Wall Street nosedived Tuesday after Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen told a U.S. Senate Banking Committee that lawmakers must raise the debt ceiling by Oct. 18 to avert the first default in U.S. history.
WTI Dips After Surprise Crude Build, Production Rebounds From Ida - Oil prices see-sawed overnight, with WTI sliding back to a $73 handle after API's reported across the board inventory builds, but found support and has rallied back to almost unchanged ahead of this morning's official data."The oil rally is taking a bit of a pause...as there is a perception that the market has gone up too fast and the fact that we saw builds in the American Petroleum Institute (API) supply report," Traders are anxious for the official data to prove API right... or wrong. DOE
- Crude +4.578mm (-2.5mm exp)
- Cushing +131k
- Gasoline +193k
- Distillates +384k
The official EIA data confirmed API's, with a 4.578mm crude build, ending a 7-week streak of draws. Also confirming the API data, inventories rose for products and at Cushing... Despite over 500k bb/d in output increase last week, recovery from Hurricane Ida continues to lag as US crude production remains Down 400k bb/d...
Oil Slides On Stronger Dollar And Stockpile Increase | Rigzone --Oil slid as the dollar surged and after a U.S. government report showed crude stockpiles rose for the first time in eight weeks. Futures in New York ended the session 0.6% lower after a choppy trading session on Wednesday. A more-than 4 million-barrel increase in U.S. crude stockpiles tugged futures lower, while a stronger dollar made exports of the commodity less attractive. “This dollar strength has reached a level that can’t be ignored,” said John Kilduff, a partner at Again Capital LLC. Oil’s advance earlier this week -- and Brent’s surge above $80 a barrel -- reflected signs of a tighter global market amid stronger demand and rising natural gas prices. Higher energy costs this month have stoked speculation that the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies may ease supply cuts more quickly. The White House said Tuesday it’s continuing to talk to OPEC and other international partners about the importance of competitive markets and doing more to support the recovery. Meanwhile, world oil supply is expected to be 1.2 million barrels a day below demand in October, and 900,000 barrels a day in November, according to a OPEC secretariat document being reviewed by the group’s Joint Technical Committee. Prices: West Texas Intermediate crude futures for November delivery fell 46 cents to settle at $74.83 a barrel in New York. Brent for November settlement dropped 45 cents to end the session at $78.64 a barrel. In addition to the crude stockpile rise in the U.S. last week, gasoline inventories rose for a second week and distillate inventories climbed for the first time since late August, Energy Information Administration data show. Yet, U.S. crude exports jumped above 3 million barrels a day, signaling stronger global demand.
Oil prices end lower as U.S. crude supplies mark first increase in 8 weeks - Oil futures ended lower Wednesday in volatile trading, as official government data showed that U.S. crude inventories climbed for the first time in eight weeks and an index for the U.S. dollar strengthened to highest level in about a year. The ICE U.S. Dollar Index was up 0.6% at 94.329, the highest in roughly a year. U.S. oil production has climbed, but it's "still not coming back fast enough to alleviate tight supply concerns," On Wednesday, November West Texas Intermediate crude fell 46 cents, or 0.6%, to settle at $74.83 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, following a modest loss of 0.2% on Tuesday. November Brent crude , the global benchmark, declined by 45 cents, or 0.6%, to $78.64 a barrel on the ICE Futures Europe exchange, ahead of its expiration at the end of Thursday's trading session. The most active December Brent contract fell 26 cents, or 0.3%, to $78.09. Prices for both WTI and Brent crude settled Monday at highs not seen for a front-month contract since October 2018. The EIA reported on Wednesday that U.S. crude inventories rose by 4.6 million barrels for the week ended Sept. 24. That defied expectations for an average decline of 4.5 million barrels expected by analysts polled by S&P Global Platts. The American Petroleum Institute on Tuesday reported a 4.1 million-barrel increase, according to sources. The weekly increase for crude inventories reported by the EIA followed seven consecutive weeks of declines. The numbers show that the impact from storms in the Gulf of Mexico a few weeks ago, which disrupted energy production in the region, are abating, The EIA also reported weekly inventory increases of 200,000 barrels for gasoline supplies and 400,000 barrels for distillates. The S&P Global Platts survey had forecast a supply increase of 700,000 barrels for gasoline and an inventory decline of 2.2 million barrels for distillates. However, API had reported larger inventory increases of nearly 3.6 million barrels for gasoline and 2.5 million barrels for distillates. "There is a growing concern that products such as gasoline and distillates are still too far below normal to make us feel comfortable," Crude stocks at the Cushing, Okla., storage hub, meanwhile, edged up by 200,000 barrels for the week, and total U.S. petroleum production also rose by 500,000 barrels to 11.1 million barrels per day, the EIA said. Still, at 418.5 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are about 7% below the five year average for this time of year, according to the EIA. Among the petroleum products, October gasoline rose 1.2% at $2.229 a gallon and October heating oil climbed by 0.8% to $2.308 a gallon. The October contracts expire at the end of Thursday's session. November natural gas settled at $5.477 per million British thermal units, down 6.9%, after settling Tuesday at the highest since February 2014 with supplies in the U.S. tight ahead of the winter heating season.
Oil Steadies After Report China Ready to Buy More (Reuters) -Oil futures were little changed on Thursday as reports China was prepared to buy more oil and other energy supplies to meet growing demand offset price pressure from an unexpected rise in U.S. crude inventories and a strong dollar. Brent futures for November delivery fell 12 cents, or 0.2%, to settle at $78.52 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose 20 cents, or 0.3%, to settle at $75.03. Earlier in the day prices at both benchmarks dropped over $1 a barrel. "The expiration of NYMEX products and Brent crude ... spiked volatility," Brent futures for December, which will soon be the front-month, were up 0.3% to $78.31 a barrel. New York Harbor Ultra Low Sulfur Diesel (ULSD) futures, meanwhile, closed at their highest since October 2018 for a second day in a row. China Premier Li Keqiang said the world's biggest crude importer and No.2 consumer will ensure its energy, power supply and will keep economic operations within a reasonable range. "If China is happily paying any price for energy, this could intensify the energy crunch in Europe," British petrol stations are still seeing unprecedented demand with more than a quarter of pumps still dry as the fuel crisis cut road traffic volumes to the lowest level since the COVID-19 lockdowns ended two months ago. A possible dampener on oil prices has been the power crisis and housing market concerns in China, which have hit sentiment because any fallout for the world's second-biggest economy is likely to affect oil demand, analysts have said. China's factory activity unexpectedly shrank in September due to wider curbs on electricity use and elevated input prices. Last week's rise in U.S. inventories came as production in the Gulf Coast returned close to levels reached before Hurricane Ida struck about a month ago. In another bearish development, the U.S. dollar hit a new one-year earlier in the day, making oil more expensive for holders of other currencies. [USD/] But expectations of a continued crude supply deficit helped support prices. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and allies including Russia, a group known as OPEC+, are next week expected to hold to a pact to add 400,000 barrels per day to their output for November. "Rystad Energy expects the group to take a wait-and-see approach, not least because the group has yet to demonstrate its ability to ramp up oil supply quickly,"
Oil futures finish higher, with U.S. prices up a sixth quarter in a row - WTI oil futures rise for the session, on bets for higher demand from China Oil futures finished higher Thursday, contributing to a sixth straight quarterly climb for U.S. benchmark prices, as traders bet on higher crude demand after a report said China told state-owned energy companies to build their reserves to meet power needs for the winter. China told top state-owned energy companies to secure winter supplies at all costs, with the order coming directly from Vice Premier Han Zheng during a meeting earlier this week with officials from Beijing's state-owned assets regulator and economic planning agency, Bloomberg reported U.S. benchmark crude oil prices had been pressured by a bounce back in domestic production to more than 11 million barrels a day last week, he said. Forecasts for a warmer October than typical in the past also took the heat off the tight supply situation, he said. Now, "China is realizing that this energy crisis could impact all parts of the economy because of coal shortages," China has suffered from power blackouts due, in part, to high prices and shortages of coal and natural gas. "They have to use alternative sources of energy to keep the lights on," "Forced switching of energy sources from coal is going to require more oil" and, because of the coal and natural-gas shortage, demand for oil will increase. "The U.S. may be a beneficiary as they are a discount to the rest of the global market," November West Texas Intermediate crude rose 20 cents, or 0.3%, to settle at $75.03 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange after trading as low as $73.14. Global benchmark November Brent crude , however, lost 12 cents, or nearly 0.2%, at $78.52 a barrel on the ICE Futures Europe exchange. The contract expired at the end of Thursday's session. The most-active December Brent contract tacked on 22 cents, or 0.3%, to $78.31 a barrel. For the month, WTI gained 9.5%, while Brent saw a rise of 7.6%, based on the front-month contracts, according to Dow Jones Market Data. For the quarter, WTI climbed of 2.1%, up a sixth consecutive quarter, while Brent marked a 4.5% advance. Oil prices had been trading lower before the Bloomberg report, as Energy Information Administration data Wednesday revealed a weekly rise of 4.6 million barrels in U.S. crude inventories after seven consecutive weeks of declines on the back of storm disruptions in the Gulf of Mexico. Despite the supply build, "the overall trend of massive draws over the past weeks has still left U.S. storage levels low enough that there is still an overarching bullish sentiment when it comes to U.S. onshore crude stockpiles," Also on Nymex, October gasoline rose 1.1% to $2.254 a gallon, but front-month prices were down 1.3% for the month, and logged an increase of 0.4% for the quarter. October heating oil added 1.5% to $2.342 a gallon, ending 9.9% higher for the month, up 10% for the quarter. The October contracts expired at the end of the session.
Oil Futures Slide on Weaker Global Manufacturing Activity -- In early trade Friday, oil futures nearest delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange and Brent crude on the Intercontinental Exchange were mostly lower, with the crude contracts declining after European manufacturing data recorded a sharp deceleration of growth in September, falling by the largest margin since the lockdown of April 2020, and global equity markets extended their September decline into beginning of the fourth quarter with focus on rattled supply chains and rising consumer prices. Overnight economic data out of eurozone confirmed investor fears over a sharp slowdown in global manufacturing output hammered by supply constraints and softening demand from industrialized economies. The final reading on eurozone manufacturing purchasing manager's index for September fell to the lowest reading since February at 58.6 -- a notable step down from 61.4 seen in August. Germany and France, the bloc's two largest economies, led the declines, with industrial indexes in both countries falling to eight-month lows. Commenting on the data released Friday morning, Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at IHS said, "Supply issues continue to wreak havoc across large swathes of European manufacturing, with delays and shortages being reported at rates not witnessed in almost a quarter of a century and showing no signs of any imminent improvement." More evidence of strained supply chains could be found in China's manufacturing data released earlier this week, showing leading industrial indexes in the world's second largest economy fell into contraction for the first time since the beginning of the pandemic in February 2020. Coupled with global supply constraints, widespread power outages in China's industrial provinces prompted Beijing to call on its top energy companies to secure fuel supply this winter at any costs. early trade, NYMEX November West Texas Intermediate futures fell below $75 per barrel (bbl) to trade near $74.50 bbl, and ICE December Brent contract fell to $77.90 bbl. NYMEX November ULSD futures edged nearly 1 cent lower to near $2.3290 gallon, with front-month RBOB futures gaining 0.45 cents to 2.1985 gallon.
Oil settles near three-year high ahead of OPEC+ meeting - (Reuters) -Oil settled above $78 a barrel on Friday, just shy of a three-year high reached earlier this week, on expectations that OPEC ministers will maintain a steady pace in raising supply. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies, known as OPEC+, meets on Monday. The group is slowly unwinding record output cuts made last year, although sources say it is considering doing more to boost production. Brent crude rose 97 cents, or 1.2%, to settle at $79.28 in its fourth weekly rise. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) rose 85 cents to settle at $75.88 in a sixth week of gains. Brent has risen over 50% this year and reached a three-year high of $80.75 on Tuesday. OPEC+ is facing pressure from consumers such as the United States and India to produce more to help reduce prices as demand has recovered faster than anticipated in some parts of the world. "If OPEC+ sticks to the script and only delivers the planned 400,000 bpd increase in November, energy markets will shortly be seeing $90 oil prices," said Edward Moya, senior market analyst at OANDA, adding that any increase smaller than 600,000 barrels should boost prices. Oil is also finding support as a surge in natural gas prices globally prompts power producers to move away from gas. Generators in Pakistan, Bangladesh and the Middle East have started switching fuels. "The most likely reason for stable oil prices is that investors believe the supply-demand gap will widen as the power crisis worsens," said Naeem Aslam, analyst at Avatrade. U.S. energy firms this week added oil and natural gas rigs for a fourth week in a row as more storm-hit offshore units resumed service in the Gulf of Mexico. Rigs rose by 7 to 528 in the week to Oct. 1, the highest since April 2020, energy services firm Baker Hughes Co said in its closely followed report on Friday.
Oil Completes Sixth Straight Week Of Gains | Rigzone - Oil rose in tandem with equity markets while traders turned their attention to an upcoming OPEC+ meeting that may yield supply increases. Futures in New York rose 1.1% on Friday. U.S. benchmark crude posted a sixth straight weekly gain, the longest streak of weekly advances since early July. Buzz continued around whether on Monday OPEC will decide to increase output after reviving its production by 360,000 barrels a day in September, according to a Bloomberg Survey. Last month’s output is lower than the threshold that markets are expecting OPEC to increase their production to, and a lot of countries in OPEC do not have the capability to increase production by very much, according to Bob Yawger, director of the futures division at Mizuho Securities USA. But that hasn’t stopped markets from pricing in the possibility that OPEC will go “above and beyond” in output. Investors are also focusing on demand after China ordered its state-owned companies to secure energy supplies for winter at all costs as the country struggles with a deepening power crisis.The order from Beijing is the latest sign that rising energy prices are becoming a political issues, after the White House Thursday said crude’s rally was a concern. “Oil is being supported by the prospect of demand outstripping supply over the coming months,” said Fiona Cincotta, senior financial markets analyst at City Index. “The expectations of future demand are strong.” West Texas Intermediate crude for November delivery rose 85 cents to settle at $75.88 a barrel; futures rose 2.6% this week. Brent for December settlement rose 97 cents to settle at $79.28 a barrel. JP Morgan Chase & Co. also warned that worsening natural gas crises in Asia and Europe will spur so many power generators to switch to petroleum-based fuels that Brent crude will reach $84 a barrel by the end of the year. It is likely to add more upward pressure to already elevated coal and liquefied natural gas prices, as well as oil products including fuel oil, diesel and propane, which can be used for electricity generation or to power small generators. That’s bolstering the scrutiny on OPEC+’s next move when it meets Monday.
Environment Ministry limits tankers allowed into Eilat under UAE pipeline deal - The Times of Israel - The Environmental Protection Ministry is holding up implementation of a controversial oil deal between the state-owned Europe Asia Pipeline Company (EAPC) and an Israel-United Arab Emirates consortium by limiting the number of Gulf tankers that can dock annually in Eilat to a maximum of six, while the company is seeking a greenlight for 30.According to a letter sent last week from the ministry’s marine protection unit director Rani Amir to the pipeline company, the decision — which also limits the amount of oil that can be brought in yearly to two million tons — was based on deficiencies in a second environmental risk survey provided by the EAPC. as well as a lack of adequate preparation for possible oil spills.In July, Amir rejected the EAPC’s first environmental risk survey, saying that, at best, it failed to meet the instructions given by the ministry in January 2021, but that it more likely reflected “negligence and perhaps even disregard for our instructions.”In last week’s letter, Amir said that there were still “significant gaps” between the ministry’s January instructions and the updated risk survey submitted by the EAPC earlier this month. Of the many pieces of information that were missing, one related to data on mishaps and pollution events at sea or on land that had occurred on the company’s watch during the years of its activity in Eilat. Just last year, for example, the company and others were convicted of harming protected nature in the Red Sea after damaging more than 2,600 corals off the Eilat coast.
Afghanistan's female judges say they are on the run after the Taliban freed the male rapists and murderers they put behind bars - Female judges in Afghanistan say they are being threatened by men they convicted for rape and murder, who were freed from prison by the Taliban.The BBC spoke to six female former judges who had dealt with cases like murder, torture, rape, and violence against women. The BBC said they were just six of the 220 female judges across Afghanistan who were now in hiding.According to the BBC, every one of them had received death threats and had to change their phone numbers.All of them were also in hiding, changing their location every few days, the BBC reported. They all said the Taliban had visited their former homes as well, the report said.One of the judges, identified as Masooma, sentenced a man to 20 years in prison for murdering his wife. "After the case was over, the criminal approached me and said: 'When I get out of prison, I will do to you what I did to my wife,'" she told the BBC. She said that, since the Taliban takeover, "he has called me many times and said he has taken all of my information from the court offices.""He told me: 'I will find you and have my revenge.'"Another woman named Sanaa, who was a judge for more than 30 years, told the BBC she had received "more than 20 threatening phone calls from former inmates who have now been released."She said that a male relative who returned to her family home was met by a Taliban member looking for her, and that the fighter beat him so badly that he had to go to the hospital.Taliban spokesman Bilal Karimi told the BBC: "Female judges should live like any other family without fear. No-one should threaten them. Our special military units are obliged to investigate such complaints and act if there is a violation."
Is The Price Of Oil All That Matters To Central Banks -DB's Jim Reid has published a remarkable observation in his "chart of the day" note, one which suggests that at least for the ECB, the price of oil - with its widespread social, financial and economic implications - may be all that matters.As Reid writes, "the financial world is trying to work out what the implications are for the energy price shocks we are seeing and whether central banks should tighten policy as a result or keep policy loose to reflect possible demand destruction that it might eventually bring." In response, ECB President Lagarde yesterday warned that the “key challenge is to ensure that we do not overreact to transitory supply shocks that have no bearing on the medium-term."It appears that she was actually addressing her own ECB, referring to the missteps made by her central bank when responding to oil price shocks. Because for all of Lagarde's rhetoric, this is not how the ECB has traditionally respond to big energy moves. On the contrary.As the chart below shows, ever since the ECB came into being they’ve tended to consistently tighten into rising oil prices (green on the graph) and loosen when they notably fall (red). The exception was in March/June this year when they loosened further by increasing the pace of the PEPP. And since the ECB works in concert with the Fed, once can extend this observation and correctly argue that all central banks respond to the price of one commodity.What is remarkable about this chart is that while central banks claim they only care about core inflation instead of headline, it appears ECB’s monetary policy has been closely linked to the ebb and flow of commodities in general, and particularly oil prices, over the last 20 plus years.
China Power Crunch Is Next Economic Shock After Evergrande – Bloomberg - China may be diving head first into a power supply shock that could hit Asia’s largest economy hard just as the Evergrande crisis sends shockwaves through its financial system. The crackdown on power consumption is being driven by rising demand for electricity and surging coal and gas prices as well as strict targets from Beijing to cut emissions. It’s coming first to the country’s mammoth manufacturing industries: from aluminum smelters to textiles producers and soybean processing plants, factories are being ordered to curb activity or -- in some instances -- shut altogether.
Singapore finding it hard to ‘live with Covid’ - Singapore’s “living with Covid” strategy is being tested by a record rise in new daily cases, laying bare the challenges of moving from pandemic to endemic. But health officials in the city-state, which at 82% boasts one of the world’s highest vaccination rates, have said the surge is a “rite of passage” on a path back to normality. The government has so far refrained from reimposing sweeping lockdown restrictions but has hit the brakes on further reopening measures while signaling concern over ballooning infection rates. To ensure that the healthcare system can cope with the climbing caseload, authorities recently took the step of tightening social distancing rules. Lawrence Wong, Singapore’s finance minister and co-chair of a multi-ministry Covid-19 task force, conceded on September 24 that Singaporeans would be disappointed by the new curbs but said the city-state remains committed to its endemic strategy. Daily cases will eventually stabilize but remain “much higher” than previously, said the minister. “We are not going back to a scenario of low daily cases anymore. It’s not going to be possible, because we are moving forward to learn to live with the virus,” Singapore had until recently employed what many regarded as a “Covid zero” strategy backed by strict measures that kept daily cases in the single digits. As the region’s vaccination leader, the city-state’s transition to endemicity is being closely observed as nations across Asia similarly prepare to manage, rather than eradicate, Covid-19. But cases have risen faster than expected in Singapore due to the more contagious Delta variant. The island nation of 5.7 million recorded its highest-ever daily caseload of 1,939 on September 26. The Ministry of Health (MoH) projects daily cases to exceed 3,200 within a week at the current trajectory and says hospital capacity could come under strain if left unchecked. New curbs slated to take effect on September 27 include limiting dining-in and social gatherings to groups of two from an earlier maximum of five, a return to online learning for primary school students, and mandatory working from home for employees able to do so. A maximum of 50% of employees was previously allowed to be at their workplaces simultaneously.
Wife of Brazil's Bolsonaro vaccinated during trip to United Nations - Brazil's first lady Michelle Bolsonaro received a COVID-19 vaccination while in New York as part of her husband's presidential delegation to the United Nations General Assembly. Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro, 66, disclosed the immunization during a Facebook Live chat after returning to Brazil, The New York Times reported. “So what happened with my wife, just now in the United States. She came to me to ask: ‘Should I take the vaccine or not?’” said Jair Bolsonaro. “I gave her my opinion. I’m not going to say what my opinion was. I’m going to say what she did. She took the vaccine.” “She’s an adult, she’s 39, she knows what she’s doing and she got the vaccine," he added. Jair Bolsonaro's office later released a statement clarifying that members of the delegation were required to get tested for COVID-19 before flying back to Brazil and Michelle Bolsonaro was asked during the test if she wanted to get immunized as well. The Brazilian president has continually derided COVID-19 vaccines, baselessly claiming that they could cause a myriad of side effects. Since attending the U.N. General Assembly, four members of his delegation have tested positive for COVID-19, including his son, Eduardo Bolsonaro, who disclosed that he had received at least one dose of a vaccine. Other members of the presidential delegation like health minister Marcelo Queiroga and finance leader Pedro Duarte Guimaraes have also stated that they were fully or partially vaccinated and contracted the virus. The Times noted that news of Michelle Bolsonaro's immunization was not received well by the Brazilian public, with many lambasting the lack of solidarity between the presidential couple and others seeing her decision to get vaccinated in the U.S. as an affront to Brazil's health care system.
"Declaration Of Media War": Russia Threatens Total Ban On YouTube After Major Channels Deleted - The Kremlin on Wednesday slammed YouTube for unwarranted "censorship" and "media obstruction" after the day prior the Google-owned video hosting platform suddenly blocked two German RT channels, including RT Deutsch which was competing for traffic with major German news and politics channels. YouTube said the Russian state media channels hadbreached its Covid 'disinformation' policies.At the time it was blocked RT Deutsch had over 600,000 subscribers and was approaching 600 million total views, according to Russian media reports. "Of course, there are signs that Russian laws have been violated, violated very rudely, as this, of course, is associated with censorship, and with obstruction of the media information dissemination," Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said. "If our supervisory authorities come to the conclusion that this is, indeed, a violation of our legislation, then, of course, we cannot, we should not exclude the possibility of taking measures to force this platform to comply with our laws," he added. A separate Foreign Ministry statement called it "outright information aggression" - and RT's editor-in-chief Margarita Simonyan called the ban a "real media war declared by the state of Germany to the state of Russia" in a social media post.However, the German government was quick to distance itself from Facebook's ban, saying it didn't have anything to do with the order. "They were not implemented by the German government," a German official said. "This is a YouTube's decision against RT and, I believe, one more channel, which is based on YouTube rules. We are taking note of this. Obviously, the affected channels have opportunities to oppose this," cabinet spokesman Steffen Seibert told reporters at a briefing.
NATO expansion in Ukraine a 'red line' for Putin, Kremlin says --The Kremlin on Monday said any expansion of NATO military infrastructure into Ukraine would cross Russian President Vladimir Putin's "red lines." Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, an ally of Putin, also agreed to take action alongside Russia to combat NATO's potential expansion, according to Reuters. "Ukraine-related issues require special attention. You can see that NATO troops are being dragged there. The United States is establishing bases in Ukraine. Clearly, we need to respond to that," Lukashenko said to a Russian news agency BelTA, according to Tass. "Unfortunately, the Ukrainian authorities don't care a bit about their own people and they don't hear our concerns," Lukashenko also said. The Kremlin said that its joint actions with Belarus would "ensure the security of the two of our states," adding that Putin "repeatedly" said NATO infrastructure in Ukraine "would cross those red lines that he has spoken about before," according to Reuters. Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba rejected this idea in a tweet, saying Putin's red lines could not reach beyond Russia's borders.
Mass COVID-19 infections of children follow Macron’s reopening of French schools --As in the United States and across Europe, the Macron government’s policy of keeping schools open throughout the coronavirus pandemic is continuing to produce the mass infection of children. The government announced last Friday that 2,366 classrooms had been closed over the previous week, down from 3,299 the week earlier. A classroom is closed only in primary school upon the detection of a single case. In total 6,383 students tested positive for the virus, down from 9,748 the week earlier. The total number of daily cases for all age groups remains at over 5,700. This is down from approximately 20,000 daily cases one month ago on August 23. However, while the warmer weather combined with the impact of vaccinations have temporarily reduced case numbers, scientists are continuing to warn that the ending of social distancing measures is preparing a new wave as autumn begins, that could well be as deadly as last year. The reopening of schools has already led to a significant surge of the virus among children. In its latest national bulletin published on September 23, Public Health France reported that the incidence rate among those aged 0-9 was 94 per 100,000 people this week, compared to 73 for the general population. Last week was the first time in the previous 10 weeks that the incidence rate for this age group was higher than the population at large. The incidence is highest among children aged 6-10. The government is in fact responding to the spread of the virus in schools by loosening social distancing protocols. On Wednesday, September 22, government spokesman Gabriel Attal announced that masks will no longer be compulsory in primary schools as of October 4, in departments where the incidence rate is below 50 per 100,000 people. There are currently 40 departments where this would apply. Yesterday, Prime Minister Jean Castex announced that the Macron government would be “experimenting” with a new health protocol in a number of school districts. Under the new policy, a case detected in primary school will also not close the class, but only result in the testing of all students in the classroom and the sending home of positive students. It will result in additional delays that will allow even more time for the virus to spread among students.
Wave of school occupations in Greece demanding safe classrooms and opposing attacks on education - A wave of school occupations has broken out in Greece to demand safe classrooms, and to protest attacks on education by the New Democracy government. Occupations have taken place at many high schools and especially in lyceums in the most populated area of the country—Attica, which includes the capital, Athens, and other town and cities on the mainland and islands including Thessaloniki, Patras, Volos, Lamia, Chania, Heraklion and Rethymno.Students are demanding smaller classes and an end to the 50%+1 protocol under which schools will only close classes if a there is one person more than half the class who has COVID. They insist on free and frequent rapid tests in schools for all children, and not just self-tests, and recruitment of the necessary cleaning staff. Students also demand the recruitment of more teachers.A central demand is for the abolition of the minimum admission system for university qualification. This was passed by the right-wing government in February and establishes a minimum entry requirement for university and a maximum graduation term. It requires students on most courses to complete their degrees within six years.As in all countries, children have been sent back into school with hardly a mitigation measure to prevent them getting COVID. The TOC newspaper’s web site reported Wednesday that 4,026 cases, almost a third (29 percent) of all new cases recorded in Greece for the week September 20-26, were aged 4-18 years. This was an increase of 21 percent among that age group in just one week.
Social-democrats win narrow plurality in fragmented German election - The result of yesterday’s German federal election reflects deep popular alienation from all the parliamentary parties and ushers in a period of political instability and sharp class conflict. Outgoing Chancellor Angela Merkel’s Christian Democrats (CDU) and their candidate, Armin Laschet, suffered a historic debacle. After 16 years with Merkel as Chancellor, the CDU/Christian Social Union (CSU) received less than one-quarter of all votes cast, with 24.1 percent. The CDU/CSU lost more than eight percent of the vote, compared to its previous worst-ever performance in the last elections in 2017 (32.9 percent). In 2013, the party could still muster 41.5 percent of the vote. The German Social-Democratic Party (SPD), the second so-called “People’s Party,” received barely over one-quarter of all votes cast, at 25.7 percent. The Social-Democrats and their Chancellor candidate, Olaf Scholz, were able to improve their share of the vote compared to their historically worst result four years ago (20.5 percent), but they did not win layers of non-voting workers. The lion’s share of new SPD voters (1.3 million) came from former CDU voters. Its “election victory” notwithstanding, the SPD is hated by workers and youth. The party of the Hartz welfare reforms, tax handouts to the super-rich and the increase in the retirement age to 67, the SPD bears chief responsibility for deep social inequality in Germany. Scholz, the incumbent finance minister, is the architect of the billions of euros in handouts to large corporations and banks and the massive rearmament drive of recent years. Only the Left Party is more bankrupt than the SPD. It achieved its worst-ever result, losing almost half of its votes (-4.3 percent) from 2017. With 4.9 percent, it missed the 5 percent hurdle for parliamentary representation in the end. However, the party will still be represented in the next parliament because it managed to win three direct mandates, which means the 5 percent hurdle no longer applies. The reason for the Left Party’s debacle is clear. Amid the pandemic, widespread social inequality and the growing danger of war, the ex-Stalinists, worn-out social democrats and pseudo-lefts were neither willing nor able to appeal to the enormous social and political opposition in the population. In states where the Left Party already governs, it cuts social spending, brutally deports refugees, and pursues the murderous policy of mass infection amid the pandemic. In the election campaign, their candidates campaigned for a SPD/Green/Left Party coalition (a so-called Red-Red-Green government) at every opportunity, signalling their support for NATO and German imperialism to the ruling class.
Euro zone inflation hits highest level in 13 years as energy prices soar - — Euro zone inflation hit its highest level in 13 years in September, as the bloc battles surging energy costs.Headline inflation came in at 3.4% last month, according to preliminary data from Europe's statistics office Eurostat. This was the highest level since September 2008 when inflation stood at 3.6%. It comes after German consumer prices rose by 4.1% in September — the highest level in almost 30 years.The rise has been driven higher by surging energy prices, deepening concern among policymakers. The front-month gas price at the Dutch TTF hub, a European benchmark, has risen almost 400% since the start of the year.What's more, this record run in energy prices is not expected to end any time soon, with energy analysts warning market nervousness is likely to persist throughout winter. France has become the latest country to step up measures to mitigate the costs for consumers. Prime Minister Jean Castex said Thursday the government would be blocking further natural gas price increases as well as rises in electricity tariffs. However, before these measures kick in, gas prices will rise by 12.6% for French consumers as of Friday.Italy, Greece and Spain have also taken steps to address the price increases.
Britain’s ‘petrol panic’ could force car-reliant doctors to live in hotels - Doctors and healthcare workers in the U.K. could be put up in hotels to ensure they can get to work, as Britain's gasoline crisis continues.British motorists have been panic buying fuel over the last week, as a major shortage of truck drivers disrupted deliveries of gasoline and other goods across the country. The situation prompted calls for doctors and other key workers to be given priority access to fuel earlier this week.Saffron Cordery, deputy chief executive of NHS Providers — a membership organization for healthcare services within Britain's National Health Service (NHS) — told CNBC in an email that workers were struggling to fuel their vehicles and get to work, despite government ministers reassuring the public that supply is beginning to stabilize. "This is a particular issue for NHS staff who deliver services in the community and to remote wards," she said Thursday. "Trusts will be working with national NHS teams and with their local partners to ensure any disruption to patients is minimized, including through changes to working patterns for community staff and through accommodation in local hotels if needed."NHS hospitals and some other health services in England are governed by more than 200 geographically designated trusts, which are run by boards of directors. "Trust leaders are telling us that fuel supplies for ambulances are not being disrupted. But reports that non-emergency patient transport services are experiencing issues accessing fuel, and the knock-on effects this could have for vulnerable patients, is concerning," Cordery added.
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